NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING
                                     AND
                   SUSTAINABLE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT:

                             . with Illustrations for
                     The Upper Mississippi River Watershed
                          1                 1                      9
           Dennis M. King , Curtis C. Bohlen , and Pierre R. Crosson
                                February, 1995


                                Prepared for:

          THE PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
                                 Prepared under:  .  ;
                      EPA Cooperative Agreement CR 818-227 '-02
                  '..    •             between
                  The EPA, Office of Policy Analysis, Washington, D.C.
         The University of Maryland, Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies
           . •  :'  Chesapeake Biological Laboratory,. Solomons, MD 20688
                               with funding from
                            EPA, Region 7, Kansas City
                            EPA 230-R-96-005

1  University of Maryland, Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies,
   Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, P.O. Box 38, Solomons, MD 20688

2  Resources For the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, D.C. 20036
                   UMD Ref. No. UMCEES CBL-95-037

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                             EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

        ,    PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
       UPPER MISSISSIPPI NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING PROJECT

 General. Description            -         source accounts for the UMR watershed, and
            •                  :   •  .  .    then illustrated linkages between them. We
    This report summarizes the preliminary  then interpreted results in ways that show
 results of research that illustrates how're-  how activities by specific sectors are affect-
 cently developed methods of natural re-  ing stocks of natural and built (man-made)
 source accounting can be used with conven-  capital.
 tional economic accounts as a tool to facili-
 tate sustainable watef shed management. We     Our economic accounts were set up to
 used the  Upper Mississippi (UMR) water-  measure both the income received by specific
 shed for  purposes of illustration, and  the  agricultural sectors—how much they receive
 report examines specific'.economic and natu-  from all sources, including subsidies—and
 ral resource accounts for that region.      " income 'generated—the difference between the
   .                                      value of the goods they produce and the cost
  _  For accounting purposes, we adopted a  of the goods they use up in production. Data
 definition of sustainable development from  for the year 1991 show-signifieant differences
 the 1994  Economic Report of the President,  between the two with some -sectors being
 which requires "that the present generation  supported  in that year primarily by subsi-
 leave  future generations with the where-  dies. Although  these subsidies may be so-
 withal—the 'social capital/ consisting of hu-  daily worthwhile, they represent income geri-
 man,  natural, and physical^ (man-made),  erated by other sectors of the economy and
' capital—to create our kind of life or a life of  transferred to regional agricultural sectors
 at least equal  quality to ours." This defini-  and  for our accounting purposes, needed to
 tion emphasizes questions about changes in  be separated from measures of sector con-
 the quantity and quality of assets, about how-  tributions to income. *
 assets should  be measured and compared,         '                    .--.".•
 and about which assets may be substitutes     Our natural resource accounts were .set-
 fo'r one another and whicl) are complements,  up in a hierarchical structure- (e.g., trees
 The definition presumes that investments in  within forests within watersheds) that in-
 one form of capital, to some extent, can off-  eludes high ofder resources .(timber, fish),
 set losses  of other forms of capital and leave  intermediate order resources (wetlands, ri-
 the overall stock of  "social capital" intact,  parian areas), and low order resources (inr
 Using this definition, many important issues . vertebrates, pollinators). Natural resource
 related to sustainability can be viewed as  accounts were selected on the basis of mar-
 questions about how individual stocks of  ket and non-market values and ecological
 capital and the overall mix of capital stocks  importance. No attempt was made to assign
 are changing.                   -,.'.,•-' dollar  values to them. Instead conditions
                                    i     .and  contributions of -assets were character-
    We developed preliminary economic ac-  ized in biophysical terms that can be linked
 counts for agricultural sectors in the UMR  directly and indirectly with changes in eco-
 watershed and .a general set of natural re-  nomic value.         •

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   Since natural resource accounts and the
biophysical linkages between them and eco-
nomic accounts have not been estimated yet,
we developed a simple "means test" to pro-
vide some preliminary information about
whether agricultural activities in the UMR
watershed are making positive or negative
contributions to sustainability as we defined
it. Based on the available scientific informa-
tion, we began by making the "rebuttable
presumption" that because of the sediments,.
nutrients,  and contaminants  they release
into water bodies, agricultural sectors in the
UMR watershed have a net negative effect
on stocks of natural capital. Given this sup-
portable presumption of negative net im-
pacts on natural capital, we applied criteria
that illustrate how the sustainability of each
sector can  be judged on the basis of (a) its
capacity to invest in other offsetting forms
of capital and  (b)  whether such  offsetting
investments are actually being made. We
used a  three-stage .test of sector-level
sustainability.          ,        „

   STAGE 1 CRITERION

   Sectors  that generate zero or negative net
   income  are not contributing to overall eco-
   nomic or environmental sustainability, be-
   cause they are not producing income that
   could be invested in other forms of capital
   to offset the losses in natural capital they are
   causing. If these sectors are being supported
   by subsidies, whether this is. socially worth-
   while or not, they are draining income away
   from other sectors of the economy that could
   use  it to contribute to private or public
   wealth.

   STAGE 2 CRITERION

   Sectors that generate only enough net in-
   come to cover the consumption outlays of
   income recipients (e.g., farm workers and
   farm owners) are not contributing to overall
    economic or environmental sustainability,
    because there is no surplus  income that
•  i  could be invested in other forms of capital
   • to compensate for the losses of natural capi-
    tal: they cause.       .    '-•
      i        .                   ,      .
    STAGE 3 CRITERION

    Sectors that generate enough net income to
    provide a surplus over the consumption re-
    quirements of income earners may or may
    not be contributing to overall economic and
    environmental sustainability depending on:
    (a) whether the surplus is sufficient to fi-
    nance investments that could compensate
    for losses of natural capital; and (b) whether ,
    the surplus, if sufficient, is, in fact, used for
    that purpose.       .      •

    We developed economic accounts for 21.
regional agricultural sectors using data for
the year 1991. Based on Stage 1 criteria, nine
of the 21 sectors in:the UMR watershed and
eight of those in the UMR flood plain are
not sustainable  without subsidies at levels '
of income generated in 1991. We are not yet
in a position to apply criteria 2  and 3.

    Our purpose in developing and using
sector-level economic accounts in this way
is to illustrate how an  integrated system of
regional economic and natural'resource ac-
counts might be used  to address questions
about: sustainability, rather than.to answer
questions about the sustainability of agricul-
ture in. the UMR watershed. There are sig-
nificant year-to-year fluctuations in agricul-
- rural approaches (e.g., crop rotation), in ag-
ricultural productivity, (e.g., droughts and
floods), and in market conditions (e.g., trade
patteirns and trade policies). This means that
for purposes of answering questions about
sustainability, trends and patterns in ac-
counts are more important than accounts for
 a .single year. With this in mind, our empiri-
 calsresults, which because of time and bud-

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 get limitations were developed only for the
 year 1991, should be used primarily to iden-
 tify important research and policy questions
 and should not be used without collabora-
 tion to support policy recommendations.

 General Conclusions

    Developing accounts to help  address
 questions about sustainability is  difficult
 because it requires making assumptions and
 testing hypotheses about a future that  will
 be affected- by environmental, economic,
 and technical changes that may not be re-
 flected in the  accounts. Questions about
.sustainability, however, can only be  ad-
 dressed by considering what the needs of
 future generations  will be and what re-
 sources they will require to meet them. Since
 human generations overlap, there is always
 some continuity across generations in  hu-
 man preferences  and basic demands for
 food, shelter, safety, environmental quality,
 recreation, spiritual fulfillment, and so on.
 It is possible, therefore, to develop a well-
 founded,  accounting system to deal with
 sustainability on the basis of what we know
' about human preferences today. Because of
 technological and cultural change, however,
 the opportunities that future generations
 will have and the mix of natural, built, and
 human assets  they'will  require to satisfy
 their preferences is certain to change. As a
. result, any accounting system that deals with
 sustainability will need to cope with signifi-
 cant uncertainty.                      ,

    Accounting for sustainability requires
 that income be measured with  overall
 wealth (built, natural, and human capital)1
 held constant. This requires careful defini-
 tions and measurements of privately owned,
 publicly  owned,  and perhaps unowned
 wealth. It also requires accounting conven-
 tions that distinguish clearly between  the
 creation of new wealth, the transferring of
 wealth frombne sector or region to another,
 and the conversion of wealth from one-form
 to another. For purposes of accounting for
 sustainability, therefore, it is more important
'. for economic accounts to measure income
 generated—the economic value pfgoods and
 services produced less the economic.value
 of the goods.and services used  up in pro-
 duttion—than income received—income gen-
'erated plus direct and indirect transfer pay-
 ments received.

    Where economic sectors are known to be
 adversely affecting stocks of natural capital,
 it is useful ,tb'begin judging their contribu-
 tion to  overall economic, and environmen-
 tal sustainability with "means tests"—tests •
 that ask whether income generated is suffi-
 cient to potentially invest in offsetting forms :
 of capital—rather than relying  on "ways
 tests"—tests that ask whether it is possible
 to replace or restore the forms of natural
 capital that are being lost.   .              -

Accounting For Sustainability in a
Watershed Context

(1) Environmental accounts,,when used'in
    conjunction with conventional economic
    accounts, can be developed into effective
    tools for evaluating the sustainability of :
    watershed management and of specific
    watershed uses..

(2) Whatever the goal of watershed manage-
   . ment,  sustainability should be defined
    (at least for  accounting purposes) in
 ,   terms, of the stock of wealth  or "social
    capital" we bequeath to future genera-
    tions.      •   . ,

(3) For accounting purposes, wealth or "so-
  ,  cial capital" should be defined as a mix
    of natural, built, and human capital that

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   includes both conventional economic as-
   sets and environmental and other assets
   with more "roundabout" links to human
   welfare.

(4) For purposes of evaluating movements
   toward or away from sustainability, in-
   tegrated environmental and economic
   accounts should facilitate the evaluation
   of long-term trends or patterns, not year-
   to-year fluctuations in economic and en-
   vironmental conditions.

(5) For purposes of evaluating sustainability,
   accounts are important primarily as in-
   dicators of future income and wealth. For
   this purpose, changes in accounts related
   to non-marketed, unowned assets that
   support long-term biological and eco-
   nomic processes may be more important
   than accounts related to more easily
   monitored, privately owned, market-val-
   ued assets.

(6) The characteristics of an accounting sys-
   tem—wnich accounts are measured, at
   what scale, and with what frequency and
   precision—should be problem-driven,
   that is, based on what watershed man-
   agement goals are being addressed and
   which aspects  of the watershed one is
   concerned about sustaining. .

(7) For guiding watershed management,
   accounts should be designed to link cur-
   rent activities (e.g., land and water uses
   such as agriculture) with the welfare of
   the current generation and with changes
   in environmental and economic accounts
   that can reasonably be expected to affect
   the welfare of future generations .

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           PRESIDENTS COUNCIL ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

      UPPER MISSISSIPPI NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING PROJECT
I  INTRODUCTION

Purpose of the Report

   This report summarizes research, that il-
lustrates how recently, developed methods
of natural resource accounting can be used
with conventional economic accounts as a
tool to facilitate sustainable watershed man-
agement. We used the Upper Mississippi
(UMR) watershed for purposes of illustra-
tion, and the report examines specific eco-
nomic and natural resource accounts for that
region.        .              •

Focus of the Report

   Natural resource accounting involves
measuring changes-in  stocks and flows of
natural capital (as opposed to  built or hu-
man capital) that result from economic ac-
tivity. Such changes are usually  measured
at the rational level and are primarily used
to supplement or adjust conventional na-
tional income accounts (e.g., GDP) to reflect
the cost of depleting or degrading natural
capital.1 The combination of conventional
economic accounts with natural resource
accounts provides broad-based information
for addressing questions such as: Are we
really better off this year than last year? Are
stocks of capital changing or just shifting
from one form or region to another? Are we
living off our natural wealth (capital) or only'
using the dividend (income) that it can pro-
vide forever if it is conserved? These are
questions that need to be answered to de- .
termine whether or not patterns and trends
in current economic activity are sustainable.
    The application of natural resource ac-
 counting described in this paper differs from
 more conventional applications in three
 ways. First, it involves developing natural
 resource'accounts not just as a technique for
 tracking changes in natural capital'but as a
 tool for watershed management. Second, it
 uses changes in natural resource accounts
 together with changes in conventional eco-
 nomic accounts to address questions about
 the long-run sustainability of present pat-
 terns and trends in resource use. Third, the
 approach taken here attempts to use'eco-
 nomic and natural resource accounts  to
. evaluate these issues for  individual eco-
 nomic sectors (industries) within a/partial-"
. lar'watershed.

   Two concepts have been central in our
 efforts to use accounting tools to examine '
 issues related ;;to sustainability. First, any
 natural resource accounting system de-
 signed for this purpose must be b.ased on a
 concept of wealth, or "social capital," that
 embodies human, natural, and built (man-
 made) assets as the underpinnings of future/
 economic opportunities. Second, the ac-
 counting system must rely on a definition
 of current  income,  known among econo-
mists as Hicksian income,  that reflects the
 maximum amount that can be spent on con-
 sumption in one period without  reducing
 the capital, or wealth, available to support
 consumption in future periods.2 These in-
 terrelated concepts of income and wealth are
 Well grounded in economic,and  financial
 accounting and provide a strong conceptual
 link between conventional economic ac-
 counts and measures of sustainability. They
 also provide a basis for linking economic

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and natural resource accounts to improve
understanding about the sustainability of
current watershed-management decisions.

   The following section summarizes some
key concepts and terms that we are using.
Subsequent sections describe the develop-
ment of accounts for a particular region—
the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) water-
shed—and illustrate how they can be used
to gain insights about sustainability by fo-
cusing on a particular economic sector—
agriculture.

II  CONCEPTS AND TERMS       .

Sustainability
   The most widely quoted definition of
sustainable development, the  Bruridtland
Commission definition, is development,
"that meets the needs of the present with-
out compromising the ability of future gen-
erations  to meet their own needs."3 This
definition is popular, however, hot because
it conveys precisely what sustainable devel-
opment means, but because it can be inter-
preted in so many different ways. Interpre-
tations differ particularly with regard to two
essential factors: what the needs of future
generations will or should be; and how bio-
physical constraints  and technological
change will affect the opportunities that fu-
ture generations will have to fulfill their
needs, whatever they might be..

   Work done subsequent to the Brundtland
Commission resulted in widely varying defi-
nitions of sustainability.4 So-called "weak
sustainability" emphasizes (1) the creative
potential of mankind to develop the knowl-
edge needed to find substitutes for resources
that become increasingly scarce and (2) the
critical role of free markets in providing in-
centives for people to use their creative po-
tential. At  the  opposite pole, "strong
sustainability" emphasizes biophysical con-
straints and fundamental laws of thermo-
dynamics, which narrowly limit the range
of resource substitution that is possible and
the overall scale of economic activity.5
    j                 '
   For purposes of analysis, we have
adopted a relatively "weak" definition of
sustainable'development, one that in  the.
words of the 1994 Economic Report of the Presi-
dent, requires "that =the present generation
leave; future generations with the where-
withal—the "social  capital," consisting of
humikn, natural,  and physical (man-made)
capital—to create our kind of life or a life of
at least equal'quality to ours."6 This has the
same general meaning as.the Brundtland
definition but reduces many controversies
over what the needs of future generations
will or  should be to specific questions about
the mix of assets that we bequeath to them.
In particular, this definition of sustainable
development emphasizes questions about
changes in the quantity  and quality of as-
sets, about how assets should, be measured
and compared, and about which assets may
be substitutes for one another and which.are
complements. Within limits that still need
to be specified, this  definition allows some
substitution of built or human capital for
natural capital.  Although still quite" vague
about what sustainable development actu-
ally means, it provides a conceptual basis
for developing an accounting system to ad-
dress questions about sustainability.7

Income and Wealth
   The fundamental difference between
conventional economic accounts and natu-
ral resource accounts is. that the former re-
flect only market transactions/while the lat-
ter include trades and tradeoffs that are in-
adequately reflected in markets, such as

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 those that involve the depletion or degra-   or "wealth" of capital in a larger region con-

 dation of unowned natural resources. An   sisting of the two sub regions unchanged;

.integrated accounting system, therefore,   arid (3) activities that increase income and

 must include two classes of income and   wealth at one ownership level (e.g., private

 wealth: one associated with marketed assets,   earnings from fish or timber harvests) at the

 (primarily built capital) and the streams of -expense of losses of capital at another own-

 marketed income they generate; and one   ership level (e.g., depletion of commonly

 associated with unmarketed assets (prima-   "owned" forest or fish resources)'may not

•rily natural capital) and the-corresponding   be generating real income increases, mdeed/

 streams of unmarketed income or benefits   overall income and wealth from a regional

 they support. In general terms, .achieving   or national accounting perspective may ac-

 sustainable  resource management, as we   tually decline as a result of economic activi-

 have defined it, requires that intergenerational   ties that generate income from the perspec-

 transfers of both classes of assets are such that   tive of conventional household or business

 in combination, they can support streams of   accounting. These three points are very im-

 income or benefits for future generations   portant when considering an accounting

. that.are no less in-quality than the streams   system that tracks changes in., total capital

 available to us.                            shocks—the sum of both marketed and

                         -       .          unmarketed assets—regardless of whether

   . In general,,the owners of marketed as-   or not they are owned or who owns them.

 sets, whether private or public entities, are   Measurements  of intragenerational or

 readily identifiable, arid the economic val-   intergenerational transfers of wealth depend

 ues of marketed assets are known. Property   on what wealth and -whose wealth is being

 rights in unmarketed assets, on the other   measured.        .             '

 hand, are difficult, and .sometimes impos-                         V

 sible, to establish, and their  ownership can  Accounting for,the Future

 often be identified only with "society" or the     r% ' r •    -^.^.       ^ r    . •   i •,'•
        ,   ui- "TO.   -i     £^       i. • '  *  Pealing with the concept of sustainability,
  general public.  The values of these assets  ,        *?. .   ,  ,.   , ^    .    L, .  . .  y>
     £.   j.£,.  ,   '                .    t   however it is defined, requires thinking'
 are often difficult to measure or even impute   u  , . .,   , .     c •   ..      .,.      .  °
.   .        ,• .. .   ,        -.IT-      about the future. Sometimes this requires
 using conventional economic tools. Figure       ,  ,.   u  .  •     ,. L  ,_ <•'••>
 i•••n  <. • ;  i.u t,      £  ^   i u  -ii.    j  speculating about a more distant future than
 1 illustrates the types of natural, built, and   r  ,     P  ..   ,        • ^'   •• i    • t
 ,  .      '  ..  , L,}\_      .    ,           ,  most professional economists, ecologists,
 human capital that are owned or managed  u  .    .          i-.-n    •>      .  %..   •
,    .  .   r       .r-,_          ,    businessmen, or political leaders are willing
by various segments of society. •  •       .   .  • - -  .,•   „ r      ..      ,  .  -,-.,.L°
• .            o              /          ,    to consider. However, for sustainability

    _         i."'         it_   .   •.   ,_  '  . analysis, there is no alternative to taking a
    For accounting purposes three important  ,    . . • •'  £'.u  j     •,  ,-,   . >  .
          •!,-. °j,-r ,.,.£.     ,£,__      long view of the  demands that future gen-
 points are illustrated by this figure-: (1) trans-.     ?•     -11 u     £      J    J     •
 I   .      ...      y      °    y.       erations will, have for goods and services,
 ferrmg capital among owners and trans- • u' u.     i •,.  j   j       i  . j    j  u
 ,   '••••,. * <•_   °     ,          ,    both marketed and unmarketed, and the,
 forming capital from one class to another   .  ,   £U  .,,   ,   . •  ,     ..  , ,_,_  , .,
   .,, .      -   ,      ,         .,' ,        stocks of built and natural capital that they
 within a region does not necessarily change  - .-,,     ,,    .,  ,  .,     , • -    •,  '      /
 .,     ,   &  „    .-.„      • ,_ i   .t,_  Jr   will need to satisfy those demands.
 the  value or  wealth  associated with the         .     -    .

 overall stock' of regional capital; (2) transfers     ^n.    • .       £    i   •          ,-
'  c   '-,. i u'  ,_       -   •   -it  i    -- ,       The existence of overlapping generations
 of capital between regions will change the       .,        ,   -' c  •,  ,f  r ° .,  •.  ,   .
   ,  r    «   •  , i „•  e        , i      • ,  provides some basis for believing that what
 value or  wealth  represented by capital  5.    ' ,       ..    —n j      j    u'  j
   !.^,.    ,     .      ".   ,   t   y ,  v     future generations will.demand can be ad-
 wi thin each region, unless the transfers'are   ,     ?    .,  u  .   , •       . ,      ,•
     .1   rr   '^- •   i     -11 i  •• ,.!_•'   i '   dressed on the basis of. current demands.
 exactly offsetting, but will leave the value          .   ,

                       \            •         ''-•'.       '       •     -    •  •

             '   '  '.'   '.  '      •.'-'•  '-7.  :  '.•.-•.'•   '      .

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Putnam, R.D. M
Characteristics of Capital
Levels of Ownership
Household Business Community Nation Globe
Pets
Gardens
Lands
i 	 ,
House
Car
Tools
Education,
Skills, '
Self-reliance
' of
i Individuals
Private Forests
Agricultural Lands
Real Estate
Mineral Rights
.Factories .
Equipment
Inventories
Knowledgable,
Competent
Managers and
Skilled Workers
Local Parks
Fishinci Holes
Ponds, Lakes
Landscapes
Air Quality
•
Town
Roads,
Fire Equip.,
Schools
i
Honest Officials
Safe Streets,
Effective
Institutions
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Flyways,
Migratory
Species,
Habitat
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Military, Equip.
Nafl Highways
Communication
Ports and Harbs.
Legal System
Institutions
Technology
Ozone Layer
Climate
Oceans
Biodiversity
Intem'l Canals,
Communication
Networks,
Navigation Aides.
United Nations
Peace Treaties
Trading Rules
Infl Laws
'• Interpol
:>
ittempt in this study to develop accounts or indicators related to human capital and include this
tere only for the sake of completeness. For some purposes the term "social capital", including
irms of acceptible behavior may be a more appropriate focus. See Coleman, J.S. 1 988. Social
ation of human capital. American Journal of Sociology (Supplement) 94;S95-S1 20 and
)93. Malting Democracy Work: CMc Traditions in Modem Italy. Princeton University Press, Princeton. •
 Figure 1. Characteristics of Social Capital

Figure 2 depicts schematically how genera-
tions have overlapped from the year 1895,
four generations ago, and how they will
overlap to the year 2095, four generations
hence. The overlapping of several genera-
tions  over a substantial number of years,
(three or four generations alive-at any given
time), suggests that  there is considerable
continuity in preferences and enduring val-
ues associated with  basic needs for food,
shelter, safety, sources of recreation and
spiritual enrichment, a sense of place, and
so on. Dealing with the sustainability issue
on the basis of these future demands is com-
plicated, however, by the fact that the re-
sources (or for accounting purposes, the-
capital stocks) used two or three generations
before us to satisfy such demands are not
the same as those we are using-today; and
those; we are using today will not be the
same as those used two or three generations
after us.

    For purposes of analysis, therefore> two
important points can be' drawn from, con-
sidering intergenerational overlaps in pref-

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Figure 2. Intergeneratlonal Overlap

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erences and technology. First, because of the
high likelihood of at least some intergen-
erational stability in basic demand's, the
analysis of sustainability on the basis of what
we understand and believe is important to-
day is -possible. Second, because of
intertemporal variability in the resources
and technologies used to meet these de-
mands, the analysis of what assets will be
useful or essential in the distant future to
meet basic human demands will entail a
relatively high level of uncertainty.

The Nature of Accounting Systems

   There are many types of accounting sys-
tems, from national income and product ac-
counts and corporate  financial ledgers, to
family budgets and records of team batting
averages. All of them are designed to serve
one of two basic functions—to provide a nu-
merical basis for monitoring performance
(score keeping) or for analyzing and improv-
ing performance (decision-making). Ac-
counts designed to support decision-mak-
ing are generally  more demanding  than
those designed to support score keeping.

   The characteristics of a proper account-
ing system—what  is measured, how often,
and with what precision—depend on the
purpose of the system. Accounting systems
to promote sustainable watershed manage-
ment must be forward looking and designed
to support analysis and decision-making
with a long-term focus. Despite the extra
challenges involved, therefore, they need to
be useful for evaluating future conditions
that we know will be shaped by many fac-
tors besides the ones we can monitor with
our accounts.

    There are three distinct kinds of  chal-
lenges that must be addressed when devel-
oping these kinds of accounts for a water-
shed. First are those associated with deter-
mining how conventional economic ac-
counts (e.g., measures of current income and
production) can be adjusted, reorganized,
and reinterpreted to provide information
useful for estimating economic performance
and opportunities in the future. Second are
those Associated with selecting from a nearly
infinite- list of natural resources1—from
stands of oak or bald eagles to invertebrates
and bacteria, and landscape features such
as rivers and wetlands—those that should
be specified in the accounting system as en-
vironmental assets, those that may be valu-
able as indicators of changes in environmen-
tal assets, and those that should play no role
in a natural resource accounting structure.
Last, and perhaps most difficult, is the chal-
lenge of linking economic and natural re-
source accounts so that the tradeoffs be-
tween current and future economic welfare
and broader questions about sustainability
can be evaluated more clearly.   .      ,

Selecting Economic Accounts
    For purposes of addressing questions
about sustainability, it will be necessary to.
modify perspectives about, and perhaps
ways of defining and measuring, conven-
tional economic accounts. To address long-
• term issues, for example, it will be impor-
tant to determine if an economic Sector that
is known to be destroying or degrading
natural capital is also generating income that
benefits the current generation and may be
used to support investments in other  "off-
setting" forms of capital.  Conventional rer
gional economic accounts, however, gener-
ally measure the "value added" by a sector
in  terms of the wages, profits, rents, and
other payments received by households as-
sociated with the sector and use it as a mea-
sure of the income the sector generates.8 A
more: proper measure of the "value added"
or  income generated by a sector is the dif-
                                       10

-------
 ference between the market value of what it  characteristics of natural resource accounts
 produces and the market value of/what it  reflect a major difference in emphasis be-'
 uses up in production, including the depre-  tweeri natural resource accounting to pro.--
 ciation of capital.9'The incomes actually re-  mote sustainability and more conventional
 ceived by households from some economic  natural resource accounting being proposed
 sectors, including many of the agricultural  to modify;pr supplement current economic
 sectors of the UMR watershed, include not  accounts.                •   ,   .'
 only the "value added" they generate/but                                ,
 .direct and indirect transfers of income that    In general, different types of envlron-
 represent "value added" generated else-  mentalcapital can be arranged along a con-
 where in the economy that is transferred to.  tinuum from low order resources to high
 them  (e.g.,  through subsidies and federal  order resources with differences based pri-
 cost-sharing and.price support programs),  marily on the "roundaboutness" of their
 Whether such transfers  are good, or bad for  links with human welfare. Higher order re-
 the country or the region is a political judg-  sources, for example, are resources such as
 ment, not an.accounting issue. What is im-  trees, minerals, or  well-known fishing
 portantis that income accounts, for purposes  grounds1 that contribute in known ways to
 of addressing sustainability issues, should  human well-being and that are generally rec-
 reveal which sectors generate income, not  ognized as having economic valued High
 which ones are given the opportunity to  order resources are usually exploited di-
 spend it. For our purposes, therefore, it is  rectly by humans, or provide immediate
 important that income accounts distinguish  environmental services such as recreational
 between income received and income gen-  or aesthetic benefits orclean water . Some
 erated.              .          ;           high order resources are valued in the mar-
 Selecting Natural Resource Accounts        ket Pl*ce ^ °*e's are no*' but " ei,fer
    .                   .                   case, their contributions to human welfare
    Accounts require something specific to  are obvious (see Figure 3).
 measure and monitor, and if the aim is to.                              «       '
 measure natural capital with a focus on long-    At the other end of the spectrum are re-
 term sustainability, it is not always clear  sources that play fundamental roles in main'-
 what stocks of natural capital and what char-  taining ecological processes and supporting
 acteristics of those stocks are important,  economic life, but are not directly exploited
 What is clear, however, is that in accounting  by humans; these we are calling 16w order
 for sustaihability, the importance of an in-  resources.  They  include  a variety  of
 dividual resource or account is based pri-  unglamorous but far from unimportant
 marily on its usefulness .as an indicator of  small organisms such as ants, decomposers,
• future environmental and economic condi-  and pollinators and important large features
 tions, which may or may not be reflected in  of the, ecological landscape, such as water-
 it's current economic value. The criteria for  sheds and flyways. Many of them tend to'
 selecting what to include in the accounts,  be too large or too small to be owned and
 called the "asset boundary" in the account-  tend to contribute in many different ways
 irig literature, should be based not just, on  to human welfare. However, the important
 the economic importance of resources now  characteristic they have in common is that
 but also on  their likely future importance,  access to them or the benefits they provide
 , These long-term criteria for determining the  can not be made exclusive, which inhibits

        •  '  '    '•       '  ' :     .         11,    .   :"         .

-------
                                    RESOURCE ACCOUNTS
                       r
                       that provide inputs to
RESOURC
ACCOUNT
      HIGH ORDER
  NATURAL RESOURCES
     (e.g. fish, timber,
        topsoil)
      LOW ORDER
  NATURAL RESOURCES
    (e.g. invertebrates,
      decomposers,
        pollinators)
                                            that returns to nature •
                                    POLLUTION / WASTE / NUTRIENTS
                                        and results in
                                 MARKET & NON-MARKET VALUES
                                    T
                                 that have
                                  GOODS & SERVICES
                                 that generates
                             • ECONOMIC
                                    SYSTEM
                                                         human .capitall
                                                         man-made capital5
                        that result in
                               ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES
                                \that allow
                          ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
                        contribute to
Figure 3. Low Order/High Order NR Accounts

                                 12

-------
 the development of property rights in them  low order resources, a process with its own
 and means that low order resources, even if  practical and conceptual difficulties,
 their economic contributions were generally.  .    ••   '
 recognized, would never be traded or have     A discussion of valuation problems as-
 any market value. Regardless, low order re-  sociated with natural resource, accounts is
 sources generate economic value in two gen-  beyond the scope of this paper. However, in
.eral ways. They contribute to basic life-sup-  general, high order.resources can be thought
 port functions such as water, chemical, nu-  of as resources that directly satisfy socio-eco-
 trient and carbon cycling, and they contrib-  nomic wants and needs (e.g., timber, fish,
.ute  to the biophysical and ecological pro-,  minerals), while low order resources are re-
 cesses that produce high order resources. As  sources that support the 'machinery of na-^
 a practical matter, many natural resources  ture that provides both high order resources
 (wetlands, for example) are intermediate or  and-broader life-support functions (e.g., bac-
 middle order resources in the sense thatthey  teria, plankton, invertebrates). Using a busi-
 proyide a mix of direct environmental ben-  ness analogy, high order resources represent
 efits in their own right, for example, by pro-  inventories that can be put to use in the near-
 viding flood control, storm surge protection,  term (10, 20, or 30. years), while low order
 and aesthetic  and recreational benefits. At  resources represent plant and equipment
 the same time, they play their more obscure  that produce inventories in the long term
• role supporting, fish and wildlife popula-  (beyond 30 years). Because high order re-
 tions, clean water, and other high order re- •  sources tend to have clear economic sigrufi-
 sources' that provide additional rounds of  cahce, they have dominated the work done
 environmental goods and services.          so far to incorporate natural resource ac-.
            •  .  ,          .          .    s,  counts into economic accounting systems.'
   Assigning economic values, to most, low-
 order resources/especially specific popula-    The further into the .future one focuses,
 tions or species,, presents severe technical  however,, the. mo re one  must examine
 and conceptual difficulties. Humans do not  changes in the low order resources that have
 (by definition) consume or appreciate them  more roundabout but.no less important and
 directly and in'some cases (for example, in  no less certain linkages with economic wel-
 the case of ants) may attach negative values  fare. For some purposes, for example, the
 to them.™ Their long-term economic values,  wealth of our  forests can be estimated by
 therefore, are difficult or impossible to mea-  considering the standing stocks of .timber.
sure using either conventional valuation  As one's time .horizon increases past one
methods that rely on observing human be-  cycle of cutting and regrowth, however, fo-
havior (revealed preferences), or "non-mar-  cus needs to shift from the trees themselves
ket" valuation methods that rely on the re-  to the rate at which trees grow and the cer-
sults of surveys (expressed preferences),   tainty that they will grow,  which depend
Using  derived values—the values  of  the  upon low order resources such as  the soil
higher order resources supported by  the  microorganisms that recycle nutrients and
 lower order resource—is  perhaps the most  make them available for tree growth. As the
promising approach to imputing values for  focus of the natural resource accounting ef-
low order resources. However, this approach  fort shifts to issues of sustainability, it is nec-
relies on quantifying the ecological roles of  essary.to depart significantly from the. crite-
                                       13

-------
ria being used to determine the "asset bound-
ary" in more conventional natural resource ac-
counts.

   In the rest of this report, we apply the
concepts and terms discussed here to dem-
onstrate how an accounting framework that
links economic and environmental accounts
can be used to investigate the sustainability
of current patterns and trends in watershed
management. We begin with a brief discus-
sion of why we selected agriculture in the
UMR watershed to develop our illustrations.
We then develop and interpret economic
accounts for specific agricultural sectors,
describe a  system of natural resource ac^
counts for the region, and  discuss how the
two sets of accounts are linked through bio-
physical flows (withdrawals of natural re-
sources and emissions of wastes by agricul-
ture) and economic flows (income generated
by agriculture). The final  section summa-
rizes the conclusions we have reached so far
as a result of our work. Background infor-
mation and technical details about- the de-
velopment of the economic accounts is pro-
vided in Appendix A and a Chart of Natu-
ral Resource Accounts for the UMR water-
shed (based on an investigation of Pool #13)
is provided in Appendix B.

ill  ILLUSTRATION OF REGIONAL
   ACCOUNTS               .
Selection of the Study Areas/Economic
Sectors

   The Mississippi River watershed reaches
from the Rockies to the Appalachian Moun-
tains. For purposes of our analysis, however,
we focused on the watershed  of the river
above Cairo, Illinois, (excluding the Missouri
River watershed). Almost all of this water-
shed is in five states; Minnesota, Wisconsin,
Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Within this area,
 we 'developed and examined economic ac-
 counts at different scales, including the over-
 all five-state region, the counties within the
 region' that, drain into the Mississippi, and
 the floodplain along three reaches of the
 Mississippi from St.. Paul/Minneapolis
 (Lock/Dam #1) south to Cairo, Illinois. We
 chose the UMR watershed because the man-
 agement of the river and the variety of eco-
 nomic; activities that impinge on it present a
 wide range of resource issues, some of which
 raise questions about the sustainability of
 current patterns and trends in resource use
 (see Figure 4).             ,

    We focused on agriculture in the Upper
 Mississippi River watershed for four main
 reasons: (1) agriculture is an important part
, of the economy of the region, and good eco-
 nomic: data are available for individual, ag-
. riculture sectors in the region; (2) there is
 sound evidence .that agricultural activities
 in the region, through releases of sediments,
 nutrients, and agricultural chemicals to re-
 gional, water resources, have significant, and
 on balance negative, impacts on the natural
 resource base of the region; (3) the federal
 response to the 1993 floods generated an
 extraordinary amount of relevant environ-
 mentail data for the region; (4) .agriculture is
 not only the dominant land use in the re-
 gion b;ut because most cargo shipped on the
 Upper Mississippi is agriculture-related,
 agriculture also is closely linked with a
 dominant use.of the river, namely moving
 cargo.           /      ,

 Data Sources

    We developed economic accounts for the
 year 1991, the most recent year for which
 comprehensive regional economic data were
 available. With two exceptions that will be
 noted, the statistics used to develop the re-
 gional economic accounts were taken di-
                                       14

-------
                     Upper Mississippi Study Area
                Watershed, Fibodplain, and Sub-Areas
                                                   Reach A
                                                   330'Miles
                                             (from Pool # 1 to Pool # 1 3)

                                                     Reach B
                                                     320 \Miies  ' .
                                              (.from Pool # 13 to PQO! #26)
                                               Reach C
                                               200 Miles
                                            (belowPool #26)
Figure 4. Map of the Study Area
                                 15

-------
rectly from published and generally avail-  plus a" variety of direct and indirect agricul-
able reports from the U.S. Department of Ag-  trural subsidies paid by the federal govern-
riculture (USDA). We relied primarily on  ment as summarized in Appendix A. Fig-
statistics provided through a USD A regional  ure 5 illustrates in graphical terms the dif-
economic data system  known as the ' ference, between income received and in-
IMPLAN (IMp^ct PLANning) system11 and  come generated, and Figure 6 illustrates how
used them to develop county- level eco-  the two measures of income are estimated.
nomic accounts related to each of 21 agri-
cultural sectors (3-digit Standard Industrial     We made this distinction because we be-
Classification or SIC sectors).. We then ag-  lieve mcome generated is a .better measure
gregated up to get accounts for the Study  of sustainable income than income received.
Area and UMR watershed areas which in-  Income received includes, subsidies, which
elude many counties across five states. In the  means that the "sustainability" of received
first exception to the direct use of USD A sta-'  income depends upon the willingness of the,
tistics, we used township level agricultural  federal government (presumably respond-
production data and satellite-generated  ing to the sense of the public) to continue to
land-use and land-cover data derived from  tax income generated in some sectors of the
LANDSAT satellite images to adjust county  economy and transfer it to other sectors.
level agricultural production statistics for  Received income, therefore, depends on.
counties adjacent to the UMR down to the  political decisions that in an increasingly
(sub-county) level of the UMR  flood plain,  competitive world economy and under new
In the second exception, we estimated the  international trading rules may themselves
amount of agricultural cargo from each sec-  be "unsustainable." Income generated, in
tor in each region that was transported along  contrast, depends only on the quantity and
the UMR navigation system and then, on a  preductivity of .the resources engaged in
pro-rated (per-ton) basis, allocated a share  production and the market value of what is
of 1991 federal operating and maintenance  used'up in production and what is pro-
costs for the UMR navigation system, net of  ducecl. Income generated, therefore, is a
reimbursements and with a few other ad-  more reliable measure of the sector'scapac-
justments, to each agricultural sector.12 Esti-  ity to support investments that may be nee-
mates of federal direct and indirect transfer  essary to offset losses in natural capital.
payments (subsidies) by commodity groups                '     . •
and capital depreciation by agricultural re-     Figure 7 summarizes our preliminary
gion were taken directly from USDA tables  estimates, of income received and income
and were allocated to regional  agricultural  generated during 1991 by agricultural sec-
sectors as described in Appendix A.         tors located in various parts of the UMR
 ,   .  ..   ..       ,      ;  . ..,,.._    watershed. The most noteworthy features in
Agricultural Income Accounts in the UMR    „.     „    .,  ,.,.,      ,  .}
 w                                      Figure 7 are the differences between mcome
    For the economic accounts, we focused  received and income generated, and the
our attention primarily on annual flows of  number of sectors, where income received is
dollar income associated with regional ag-  positive, but income generated is negative.
riculture, and we distinguish between in-  From these accounts, livestock production
come received by agricultural  sectors and  (ranch fed cattle through miscellaneous live-
income generated by them. Income received  stock) is by far the dominant source of in-
co'nsists of income generated by agriculture  come1 generated in. the region. Dairy farm

                                       16     \      .             .'•:'.

-------
                  INCOME RECEIVED vs. INCOME GENERATED
                      Income Received:
                      Income Generated:
       •  $$
    Income
   Received
                 / apparent value added
 includes transfer payments;
 does not account for public costs  •'
 excludes transfer payments;   : ,
 accourits'for public costs

r-100.  : .
                       direct transfer
                        payments

value of goods sold

                  cost of inputs purchased
                         (private)
  Qn
|— oO
                                        -50
                                         0
. value of goods sold <.
real value added  >v
                  >
      . public costs (flood protection)
                                                public costs (navigation)
                                                public costs (agriculture)
       cost of inputs purchased
              (private)
.$$•  '
 Income
 Generated
Figure 5. Income Received vs. Income Generated
production is the major source of negative
net income generated/followed by vegetable
production and oil-bearing crops, mainly
soybeans. There is also a large difference.
between income received and income gen-
erated by feed grain production. Overall, the
'figures for 1991 .indicate that of the $5.4 bil-
lion in income received directly by house-
holds associated with agriculture in the
Study Area (paid out by firms in the form of
wages,  salaries,,proprietors'income, rent,
and so on), about $3.0 billion or 57% is .gen-
erated by regional  agriculture, and 43% is
generated elsewhere  in  the national
economy and transferred into the region
through various subsidy programs. Simi-,
larly, income generated as a percentage of
income received' during 1991 was 60% for
   agriculture in the UMR watershed and 52%
   for the UMR flood plain.

      The results presented in Figure 7 are pre-
   liminary and are subject to a few important
   caveats:

   (1) .The estimates of income received and in-
      come generated, although based on pub-
      lished and generally accepted data, are
      first approximations; they rest on gener-
      alizations and assumptions made by
      USDA and by us that need to be tested
      - further;

   (2) The estimates are for a single year, 1991,
      which may not reflect the  income re-
      . ceived and generated in other years or
      over longer periods—this too requires
      more research.                   .
                                        17

-------
                                FIGURE 6
        INCOME RECEIVED VS. INCOME GENERATED
                         ($ Millions; Year 1991)
                                               i
                                               i               • •  • .       .
INCOME RECEIVED: Net Value Added (Unadjusted) plus Direct Transfer Payments
                                               I   ' •
TMCOME GENERATED: Net Value Added (Adjusted)

      WHERE:
             NET VALUE ADDED: (Unadjusted) is the difference between the value of
             goods produced andthe Cost of Goods paid by the private sector only

             NET VALUE ADDED;.(Adjusted) is the.difference between the value of
             goods produced and the Cost of Goods to both the private and public sectors.
                              ILLUSTRATION
         SECTOR 11: FOOD GRAINS; REGION; UMR WATERSHED
                              ($ Millions)
       INCOME RECEIVED: $45.851      INCOME GENERATED: $8.404
GROSS FARM RECEIPTS
      Less Direct Transfer Payments (e.g., price/income support)

VALUE OF GOODS SOLD                     .
      Less Cost of Goods Used in Production (private costs only)
GROSS VALUE ADDED
      Less Depreciation of Plant and Equipment
      Plus increases in Inventories
NET VALUE ADDED (Unadjusted)                |
      Less Indirect Transfer Payments (e.g., Cost Sharing Programs)
      Less Other, Public Costs (e.g., annual flood/nav. O & M Costs)
                                               i '    '
NET VALUE ADDED (Adjusted)
                          $423.121
                          -13.596

                          409.525
                          -330.243

                           79.282
                          -47.027
                          + 0.000

                            32.255
                          -19.862
                            -3.989

                             8.404
Figure 6. Calculation of Income with Illustration
(3) The estimates are presented as aggregates
   for specific sectors (roughly three-digit
   SIC codes) that do not consist of identi-
   cal farm operations—some operations
   may generate or receive more or less in-
   come than others^
(4)
The estimates'do not include agriculture's
share of federal construction costs (as'op-
posed to operating and maintenance
costs) of navigation and flood control
structures along the Mississippi (with the
                                        18

-------
                    INCOME RECEIVED VERSES INCOME GENERATED BY SECTOR / BY REGION .
                                        (ST millions; 1991),
                              R= INCOME RECEIVED, GdNCOME GENERATED
INDUSTRIAL SECTORS
Sector
#•'
Title
. AGRICULTURAL .
1
2
31
4
5
6
7
8
9 :
10
1 1
1i2
1 3
1 4
16
1 6
17
1 8
1 9
20
21. '
Dairy Farm Products
Poultry And Eggs
Ranch Fed Cattle
Range Fed Cattle
Cattle Feedlots
Sheep, Lambs, & Goats
Hogs, Pigs, And Swine
Other Meat Animal Prod
Misc. Livestock . .
Cotton '
Food Grains
Feed Grains '
Hay And Pasture
Grass Seeds
Tobacco '
Fruits-
Tree Nuts
Vegetables
Sugar Crops
Miscellaneous Crops
Oil Bearing Crops
Incom
Type

R
,'Q
. R
G
R
G
. R
G
R
G
R"
G
, R
G
R
G
R
G
R-
^G .
. R
G
•R
G
, R
G
R
G
R
G
R ;
G
,.R
G
R
G-
R
G
R
G
R
G
GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS '
Study
Area

131.61
-335.60
-16.91
• -69.254
1,242.723
1,118.203
85,910
71.076
948.617
853.619
199.806
179.318
1,253.038
1,147.864
5.524
5.524
4.930
-1:643
r5.279
-20.165
112.280
39.276
875.637
170.948
229.644
179.468
3.682
3.682
0.073
-1.156
4.866
-7.228
-0.156
-1.375
38.664
-129.790
23.117
18.742
•8.893
8.893
220.226
-179.719
' UMR
Watershed

142.03
-222.83
5.. 5 4
-29.62
937.97
856.004
63.04
54.906
749;902
. 677.508
. 167.656
151;.396
1,073.034
988.036
0.000
0.000
4.590
-0.551
-0.227
-0.663
45.851
8.404
732.716
180.421
178.976
145.404
0.932
0.932
0.378
-0.314
4.428
-3.907
-0.016
-0.080
:34.790
-106.870
4.297
3.204
6.043
6.043
201.196
-81.989
UMR Floodplain
Total

2.56
-10.10
-0.10
-0.38
28.568
25.778
2.107
1.823
24.281
21.574
2.708
2.402
33.227
29.927
0.000
0.000
0.047
-0.007
0.790
: 0.682
2.1 1 1
-1.016
17.635
0.167
5.348
4.199
0.038
0.038
0.030
-0.015
0.288
-0.396
0.030
0.025
0.524
-2.379
0.000
.0.000
0.057
0.057
3.709
:-8.044
"Reach A

3.74
-5.54
0.02
-0.09
16.94
15.64
1.47
1.310
.13.764
12.514
0.776
0.702
; 12.141
11.299
0.000
0.000
0.060
0.043
0.000
0.000
. 0.160
-0.023
7.226
3.032
3.865
.3.217
0.000
0.000
0.030
-0.015
0.185
• 0.009
0.000
0.000
0.769
•1.140
.0.000
0.000
0.030
0.030
0.402
0.035
Reach B

-0.21
-1.33
-0,03
-0.'1 3
8.73
7.7-1
. 0.50
0.422
8.799
7.656
1.826
1.620
16.045
•14.224
» .. 0.000
0.000
0.006
-0.013
0.000
0.000
0.459
-0.507
7.355
-1.176
0.796
0.554
0.007
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.028
-0.120
0.000
'o.'ooo
-0.002
-0.283
;o.ooo
0:000
0.012
0.012
1.604
-4.416
Reach C

-0-.966
-3.226
-0.090
-0.155
2.889
2.424
0.122
0.091
1.718
' 1.404
0.106
• 0.080
. 5.0,41
4.404
0.000
0.000
-0.019
-0.037
•0.790
0.682
1.492
-0.486
3.054
-1.689
0.657
0.428
0.031
•0.031
0.000
0.000
0.075
-0.285
0.030
0.025
-0.243
-0.956
' 0.000
0.000
• 0.015
0.015
•'1.703
-3.663
      Total Income Received
      Total Income Generated
5.366.894
3,050.677
'4,353.148
2,625.432
123.956
64.321
61.595
41.022
45.926
24.212
16.435
-0.913
Note: Negative income generated for a sector means that the payments to households by firms in the sector-
were supported  by subsidy payments received or by consuming'(not replacing) private capital or;both.
Statistics provided in Appendix A, Section A-l cari be used to determine how much of each. > .-"

Figure 7. Table of Income Received and Income Generated
                                            19

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   exception of a portion of recent renova-
   tion costs at Lock/Dam #26).

(5) The estimates do not reflect changes in
   current or future net income associated
   with the impacts of agricultural produc-
   tion on stocks of natural capital' nor on
   unmarketed income flows generated by
   those stocks. We have much to say about
   this last important point in the next sec-
   tion.
   A "Means" Test for Sustainability

   With full recognition of the preliminary
nature of the estimates in Figure 7, we ad-
dressed the sustainability question in the
following way. We began by making a "re-
buttable presumption" that in the absence
of information to the contrary, the agricul-
tural sectors listed in Figure 7 have at least
some negative net effect on stocks of natu-
ral capital. This presumption is based on a
substantial body of information about agri-
cultural discharges and  their effects on
aquatic systems, specific empirical studies
in the UMR watershed, and a preliminary
assessment of biophysical linkages between
agricultural production in the region and
some specific forms of natural capital.^

   Given the presumption of negative net
impacts on stocks of natural capital, we fol-
lowed the flow of analysis outlined in Fig-
ure 8 and applied three criteria to judge
whether each sector is contributing in a posi-,
tive or negative way to overall sustainabil-
ity on the basis of net income generated.
   STAGE 1 CRITERION
   Sectors that generate zero or negative net
   income are not contributing to overall eco-
   nomic  or environmental sustainability be-
   cause they are not producing income that
   could be  invested in other forms of capital
   to offset the losses in natural capital they are
   causing. If these sectors are being supported
   by subsidies, whether this is socially worth-
   while or not, they are drawing income away
   from other sectors of the economy that could
   use it to contribute to private or public
   wealth.

   STAGE 2 CRITERION

   Sectors that generate only enough net in-
   come to cover the consumption outlays of
   income recipients (e.g., farm workers and
   farm owners) are not contributing to overall
   economic or environmental sustainability
   because there is no surplus income  that
   could be invested in other forms of capital
   to compensate for the losses of natural capi-
   tal they cause.        .      ,
     '( • .                    "            ' •
   STAGE 3 CRITERION

   Sectors that generate enough net income to
   provide a surplus over the consumption re- •
   quirements  of income" earners may or may
   not be'contributing to overall economic and
   environmental sustainability depending on:
   (a) whether the surplus is sufficient to fi-
   nance investments that could compensate .
   for losses of natural capital; and (b) whether
   the surplus, if sufficient, is, in fact, used for
   that purpose.

   Based on Stage 1 criteria, nine of the 21
sectors in the UMR watershed and eight of
those in the UMR flood plain are not; sus-
tainable  without subsidies at levels of in-
come generated in 1991. We did not attempt
to apply criteria 2 and 3 to the income esti-
mates shown in Figure 7.

   It is important to note that failure to meet
even the Stage 1 criteria for sustainability in
any cine year or even  over several years is
not sufficient,  by itself, to judge a sector to
be unsustainable over the long-term. Over
a period of one or a few years, unexpected
natural events, (e.g., prolonged droughts'or
disastrous floods, or market upheavals, or
                                        20

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                       Flow of Analysis
                          Economic Sector
                              Generates
        I
 Biophysical Flows
"'•••.    i
£^~~
                                           Economic Flows
                                                  1
        Withdrawals
           Emmissions
Current Income
            Processes
jntai
and
es


Investments



                                                       1
                                                       Current
                                                    Consumption
                  i
                                      1
             I
Natural
Capital



, Built (man-made)
Capital
1

Humai
Capita

                            Sustainability
              "Ability of Future Generations To Meet Their Own Needs"
Figure 8. Flow of Analysis Showing Biophysical Linkages
abrupt shifts in domestic or international  generated over a period of many years may
government policies) can reduce the income  be consistent with long-term sustainability.
generated by a sector below that necessary  ft follows, therefore/that our estimates de-
to offset the natural capital losses it causes,  veloped for 1991 and presented in Figure 6
Given time to recover or an industrial reor-  should be used, to raise policy and research
ganization, however, the level of income  questions, but should not be used without
                                  21

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calibration to draw conclusions or provide  those'losses to the specific agricultural see-
the basis for policy recommendations'.14     tors responsible for them.        ,
                                           •        •
   It is also important to note that the three     For resource accounting purposes>  the
sustainability criteria described above are  valuation problem presently is insoluble, not
based on testing means, not ways, for offset-  just in the UMR watershed but generally.
ting natural capital losses. There  are many  Economists have developed non-market
unresolved questions about whether invest-  techniques for valuing unmarketed goods1
ments in man-made capital can ever substi-  and services and-the assets that generate
tute for some' forms of natural capital loss/  them, but these techniques are controversial
and whether some forms of natural capital  and are likely to remain so.16 In any case,
can be restored or replaced with any level,  the techniques have not been applied widely
of investment. These questions are impor-  enough in the UMR watershed or anywhere
tant, and are the topic of other research by the  else to provide  .values of  the unmarketed
authors, but they are not addressed here.15     goods  and services provided by natural
          _  .     _       ..      .        capital. For reasons discussed earlier, these
Linkages Between Economic and        toques, even if they become widely ac-
Natural Resource Accounts              cepted for valuing non-marketed high or-
   As noted above, we made an informed  der resources, may never  be useful for as-
presumption that the agricultural activities  signing economic values  to low order re-
listed in Figure 7 result in damage to natu-  sources.                               .
ral resources of the UMR, and that this dam-              -
age causes losses of social value that should     Recognizing that a solution of the valu-
be represented in a complete accounting of  ation problem, if there is one, lies in the fu-
the performance of the agricultural sector in  hire, many analysts working in the field of
the region. Such a complete.accounting sys-  natural resource accounting have settled on
tern would show linkages between the eco-  describing, and  where, possible, measuring
nomic accounts for agriculture and UMR  changes in biophysical characteristics of
natural resource accounts and would record  ''unmarketed flows of goods and services and
the consequences of agricultural activities on  of changes in stocks of natural capital result
the natural resource base as well, as on eco-  ing from marketed and unmarketed flows.
nomic income and conventional measures  For example, where farmers drain wetlands
of wealth.                                to plaint crops, there is likely to be a Ipss of
                                       :  wildlife habitat. Although it might be  im-
   A completely satisfactory matching of  possible to value the loss, the number of
economic accounts with natural resource ac-  acres can be  counted, and the kinds and
counts for the UMR region would require  numbers of wildlife lost perhaps can be es-
the solution of two key problems: (1) how  timated. However, there are conceptual and
to properly "value" 'changes  in stocks of  analytical difficulties when inferring
natural resource capital associated with ag-  changes in value from observed changes in
ricultural activities (e.g., economic losses  biophysical characteristics. Hypothetically,
associated with changes in surface water  the only social value of the wetland, for in-
characteristics caused by sedimentation  stance, might be as wildlife habitat. If the
from agriculture); and (2) how to assign  wildlife could find equally satisfactory habi-
                                       22

-------
 tat elsewhere, however, the social costs of;
 draining the wetland would be zerof;and a
 complete accounting system would appro- •
 priately charge  no wetland drainage costs
 to the. agricultural'sector. A system that as-
 signed costs'(foregone wildlife values) on
"the basis of- we_tland acreage or some other
 biophysical  measure, on'the other hand,
 probably would assign additional costs to
 the agricultural  activity.

    As the wetlands example illustrates,
 changes  in ecological systems may not be,
 reflected in simple direct ways 'through
 changes  in ecosystem function or through
 associated benefits  to humans.-In particu-
 lar, ecological systems sometimes show com-
 pensato'ry or other  responses  that may, re-
 duce or magnify the overall impact of hu-
 man activities on ecological processes and
 the flows of Unmarketed goods and services
 produced. Sediment impacts on the Missis-
 sippi, for example, had limited—and often
 beneficial—effects on flows of environmen-
 tal services (e.g., support of recreational and
 commercial  fisheries) for several decades
 after .the construction of the modern navi-
 gation channel in the 1930s. That neutral ox-
 favorable result no longer holds, however,
 and is expected  to change for  the worse in
 the near future. Changes in the Illinois River
•in response-to  similar sedimentation re-
 sulted in sudden, near catastrophic changes'
 in the -environmental goods and services
 provided by many backwater areas (see Side
 Bar 1). The Upper Mississippi River Envi- ,
 rqnmental Management Program currently
 invests tens of millions of dollars annually
 to slow,  resist,  or reverse the ecological
 changes triggered by intensive management
 of the river as a navigation channel.17
                                '  •    • /
   Xinking sources  and impacts is particu-
 larly difficult in situations where the people
 who  consume or benefit from unmarketed
 Side Bar 1;   Effects of Changes On
              Environmental Assets

    Initially, the changes in the river wrought by
 navigational and other improvements were a boon
 to certain wildlife and fish species, including some
 waterfowl, largemouth bass, and bluegili, .for
 whom the still-water habitats were more hospi-
 table than the flowing-water systems they re-
 placed. Extensive areas of the floodplain were in-
 undated, increasing the .area',of still-water aquatic
 habitats and leading to increases in the area of
emergent wetlands. These, increases came prima-
 rily at the expense of upland- habitats- within the
 floodplain, especially floodplain'forests, but over-
 all,  habitat diversity, suitability for a variety of
 desirable wildlife species, and recreational oppor-
 tunities all increased.    ' '    •'.  • "

    The high-quality habitats present immediately
after construction of the Locks and Dams, how-
ever, were not and are not stable. Sediment inputs
now exceed the river's reduced sediment trans-
port capacity. Backwaters and other still-water
habitats are gradually filling. Islands in the pools
above each dam have eroded, lessening habitat di-
versity, and increasing the distance over which
wind-driven waves can build, further increasing
erpsion and resuspehsion of bottom sedirrtents.
Habitat for aquatic plants has deteriorated, wors-
ening conditions in turn for a variety of waterfowl
and fish species/Habitat quality and aesthetics are
deteriorating, lessening the river's value for many
recreational uses. Within 50 years or so, habitat
conditions are likely to be poor throughout much
of-the Upper Mississippi River.2^

    On the Illinois river, sedimentation in back-
water areas has already resulted in the nearly cata-
strophic transformation of large areas into biologi-
cally depauperate and recreationally inferior mud
flats or near mud flats. Habitat conditions are poor,
and few aquatic plants, fish, or waterfowl make
use of these degraded ecosystems. 22 Many Missis-
sippi River scientists suspect that without changes
in river management, a similar fate will befall large
parts of the UMR, as sediments gradually fill the
still water areas of the.impounded river. •    ;
                                           23

-------
goods and services are separated in time or,
space  from the resources or features of the
ecological landscape that produce, them. In
these  situations/there are no face-to-face
transactions between users and producers
as there are in the case of marketed goods
and services, and the two may not even be~
aware of their relationship. For example,
recreational  fishermen (consumers) may
benefit from a reduction of sediment deliv-
ered to a stream by difficult-to-identify farm-
ers (producers) hundreds of miles above the
fishing site. Since urban and industrial ac-
tivities may also contribute sediment load-
ings to the stream, assigning benefits of sedi-
ment reduction—even when it is possible to
value  them—poses a difficult  accounting
problem. The assignment of benefits (and
costs)  may  be made even more difficult by
the cumulative and interactive effects of eco-
nomic activities on environmental assets.
The effects  of sediment on the Mississippi,.
for example, are strongly influenced not only
by agricultural practices, but by changes in
river dynamics associated with river man-
agement decisions. It may be ambiguous
whether, and to what extent, the impacts of
sedimentation should be assigned to 'agri-
culture, navigation, or some other sector (see
Side Bar 2), and the cost of analysis required
to sort things out may be prohibitive. In such
a setting, cumulative and cascading sets of.
impacts may make it impossible.to identify
sources or allocate responsibility in an ob-
jective way.

    At the present time  no system of ac-
counts can deal satisfactorily with either
valuation (what non-marketed natural re-
sources are worth) or the assignment of costs
(foregone values) to specific human activi-
ties, and our effort here for the UMR water-
shed is no exception. Indeed, given the prac-
tical difficulties of addressing changes in
natural capital that are clearly important and
Side Bar 2;   Sediment Dynamics in
              the Mississippi
     I            ,         \
   The Upper Mississippi is an aggrading river.
Even before European settlement of the UMR wa-
tershed, the Mississippi was accumulating sedi-
ment, adjusting to flow conditions very different
from those that shaped the river during the.most
recent glaciation of North America." Changes in
land  use,  especially the establishment of wide-
spread agriculture, greatly increased the rate at
which sediment was introduced into the river. As
a consequence, turbidity in the river increased, and
the rate of accumulation of sediments in the river
went up.2? Loading of phosphorous and nitrogen
also increased.24

   But agriculture was and is only a small part of
what affects sediment dynamics in the river. Be-
ginning in the 1830s, a variety of modifications to
the Mississippi were made to enhance the river for
navigation. Initially, channels were blasted through
rapids. During the 19th and early 20th centuries,
four-foot, four and one-half-foot and six-foot deep
channels were constructed or authorized.25 For
construction of these channels, secondary channels
and sloughs were blocked with closing structures,
and wing walls were constructed to concentrate
flows iihd increase the depth of the main channel.
Many miles of shoreline were armored to reduce
erosion. At about the same time, extensive areas
within the floodplain were protected from flood-
ing by the construction of levees. These changes
essentially confined the river to its existing chan-
nel. Erosive processes that once fueled ecologically
important disturbance of floodplain ecosystems
and generation of new river channels, backwaters
and sloughs were arrested. Concurrently, water
flow  in secondary channels slowed and backwa-
ters became increasingly isolated from river flows.
                   •           '
   In the 1930s, with the construction of a series
of locks and dams from above Minneapolis to Saint
Louis, the six-foot flowing water channel was re-
placed with a nine-foot slack water navigation sys-
tem.26 By 1940, the river had become a series of
pools interspersed with short segments of'flow-
ing water. The processes that once distributed sedi-
ments within the river had been fundamentally al-
tered. Sediment accumulation, "already augmented
by increased agricultural runoff, increased to many
times |ts previous rates, especially within the slack
water areas produced by the new, deeper channel.
                                           24-

-------
 may be irreversible, but can be associated
 on-ly with'unmarketed goodsrand services/
 a totally satisfactory solution is unlikely in
 the foreseeable future.

  ••• These  analytical problems can be illus-
 trated by  describing some-specific difficul-
 ties  we encountered in evaluating the
 sustainability of current and past manage-
 ment of the Upper Mississippi River (see
 Side Bar 3)/ First/ the effects-of river man-
^agement on the environmental characteris-
 tics^ the river is uncertain. This is partly
 because our knowledge of the.system is lim-
 ited, but more fundamentally  because the
' fiver is  a  stochastic system whose charac-
 teristics are strongly influenced by  infre-
 quent events like the 1993 flood. Second, ef-
 fects on  the flows  of marketed  and
 unmarketed environmental goods and ser-
 vices are also difficult to predict., The pro-
 cesses by which ecosystems,  landscapes,
 watersheds, and floodplains form produc-
 tive  river  systems are beginning to be un-
 derstood,  but this ecological understanding
 is difficult to capture in ways that reflect how
 humans extract value from a healthy river
 system. Third, although we can be reason-
 ably confident that  future generations will
 continue to value environmental assets in
 general, (e.g.,  for recreation),  the specific
 forms of recreation that  those  generations
 will value is less certain.   :

 Natural Resource Accounts for the UMR:
 A First Approximation

    •As noted above, much of the existing re-
'search in  natural resource accounting has
 focused.on identifying and tracking bio-
,physical.flows that link  economic activity
 with its  impacts on the natural resource base:
 That is  the  approach we followed here in
 developing natural resource accounts for the
 UMR. We began, however, with the under-
Side Bar 3:
Sustainability and the
Upper Mississippi River
    To what extent can we characterize changes in
;the Mississippi as sustainable or unsustainable?
Current navigation and land management practices
are changing the river in a variety of ways that re-
sult in the degradation, depletion, or loss of envi-
ronmental assets from, backwater lakes and paddle-
fish unionid mussels. Without changes in manage-
ment, readily predictable changes in the structure
of the river and its associated environmental as-
sets are likely to reduce the availability of several
environmental goods and services tp the people of
UMR Watershed.        ;

    Yet when-assessing the extent to which spe-
cific environmental changes can be considered
"unsustainable,'' one needs to consider what the
future may bring. The 1993 flood scoured out some
Mississippi backwaters, possibly pushing back the
day of environmental reckoning by decades.27.

    Equally important, what will the policy re-
sponses to degrading river conditions.be? The
Army Corps of Engineers, under the auspices of
the Upper Mississippi River Environmental Man-
agement Program, have 66 environmental restora-
tion and enhancement projects already constructed,
under construction, or planned.28 These projects
are intended, in large part, to prevent, resist, or re-
verse declines in river habitats triggered rby river
impoundment and the continued input of sediment
from upstream sources. Total design and construc-
tion costs of these habitat projects will total about
$150 million between Fiscal Year 1986 and Fiscal
Year 2002, an average of about $10 million per year.
Annual operations and maintenance expenditures
for those restoration projects are likely to exceed
500;000 annually.               •

    Presumably, with sufficient investment in. en-
vironmental restoration and management, the con-
flicts between agriculture, navigation, and river re-
sources could be successfully mediated. The extent
to which such action will be taken," however, re-
mains unknown. Moreover, the magnitude of cur-
rent expenditures on the river for navigation and
environmental restoration suggest that any such
efforts at mediation will be expensive.
                                           25'

-------
standing that the natural world cannot be
divided up.into Separable sectors and com-
modities in'the same way the economy can
be divided into industries and products.
Moreover, there is no generally accepted
numeraire, such as dollars, to tell us what
natural resources are most important to
measure. A wide variety of potentially in-
compatible natural resource accounting sys-
tems are possible, therefore, based on dif-
ferent geophysical taxonomies and other
objective and subjective decisions about how
to describe the natural world. Should we
measure forests or trees? Should we track
the abundance and species composition of
insects that pollinate plants or the size or
diversity of the plants themselves? Should
we track species or the size and characteris-
tics of the habitats they depend upon?

   For traditional accounting purposes, we
would like to describe values of natural re-
sources on the basis of observed or imputed
market prices, but we do not now know how
to do this. As a second best solution, then,
can we develop indicators of (a) the impor-
tance of specific resources to the productiv-
ity, resilience, integrity, or health of natural
assets likely to be important in the future,
or (b) the ability of those resources to pro-
vide marketed and non-marketed benefits
to humans?  We believe the answer, to .this
question is yes, and we developed our natu-
ral resource accounting system for the Up-
per Mississippi watershed to show how such
indicators might evolve.

   Most natural resource accounting efforts
are aimed at adjusting or supplementing
current economic accounts, such as GDP, for
depletion or (less often) degradation of en-
vironmental assets, not to explore issues of
sustainability.18 As  a result they focus on
extractable natural resources, such as tim-
ber, minerals, and fish for which market val-
ues exist, and a few other natural assets, such
as soils and wetlands, for which estimates
of values can to some extent be imputed.
   An analysis of sustainability requires a.'
much broader view of environmental assets
than has been used in more conventional
natural resource accounting studies. If one
is interested in the quality and quantity of
environmental resources being left for future
generations, current depletion of renewable
resources often will be less important than
effects on the productivity of natural assets.
Within-broad limits, in other words, the re-
newal rate of renewable resources may be
mo re; important fpr determining  the re-
sources available to future generations than
current stocks. As the time.scale of interest . "
lengthens, natural'wealth is measured less
in terms  of standing stocks of timber, .fish,
or wildlife, and increasingly in terms of
those characteristics of the ecological land-
scape that reflect,nature's ability to support
and produce those assets. Long-term re-
newal properties of ecological systems are
controlled to a significant degree by low or-
der and intermediate order resources.

   Hie prototype Natural Resources Ac-
counting system for the UMR region in-
cludes high, intermediate, and low order'
resources. Because of practical limitations on
the ability to collect and manage environ-
mental information, it is impossible to track
all low order resources directly. Thus,  it
makes practical sense to track many low
order resources indirectly by monitoring the
condition of the wetlands, riparian areas,
and other (intermediate order) ecological
systems in which they are found. Since these
ecolojgical systems are dependent on the ser-
vices provided by the low order resources,
monitoring the health, integrity, or quality
of the: ecological systems often can provide
ample warning of underlying problems in .
                                       26

-------
low order resources. Note that this type of,  depends on trees/is also a natural asset/This
accounting may require monitoring-charac- .means (literally, not metaphorically) thatif
terisrics of high order resources '(e.g., hum-  we account for components of natural
her of lesions or tumors per fish) that are sig-  wealth at the scale of trees, we will fail to
nificantly different than those-measured in  see the contribution of the forest. It is equally
more conventional natural resource account-  true, however, that if we account for natu-
ing (e.g., ex-vessel value of harvested and  ralassets at the scale of the forest/we may
unharvested fish).           ,              miss the contribution of individual trees.
        --....•.                           This problem of rrieasuring "values" at dif-
   This indirect tracking of low order re-  ferent scales within a hierarchy has no 'di-
sources by'monitoring characteristics of high  rect parallel  in economic systems because
order resources is made possible by  the hi-  contributions at different industrial scales '
erarchical organization of environmental  are valued in .the same numeraire, dollars,
systems. Landscapes, watersheds, and large  and the contributions of various component
ecosystems are built up of smaller ecosys- sectors at each scale (e.g., sales by farmers
terns, which are in turn constructed of ecd-  or food processors) and across scales (e.'g,>.
system components like populations, of  total agricultural sales-and GDP) are com-
plants, Animals, and other organisms; poo Is  mensurate and generally additive (e.g.,
of nutrients; and other chemicals. 19 This hi-  value added).
erarchical structure is at the foundation of     .  ..      .                      • .  '.'
natural systems and of the system of natu-    The  prototype accounting system -dis-
ral resource accounts we developed for the  cussed here is based on biophysical charac-
UMR watershed.                           teristics organized within a hierarchical sys-
                                •          tern that reflect how natural systems create
   There are also many practical reasons  or support the production of goods and ser-
why an environmental resource accounting  vices that have value to humans. This allows
system designed to examine issues  of natural assets, for which estimates of mar-
sustainability should take account of hier- ket value are difficult to derive, to be tracked,
archical relationships  found in nature. A  at various .scales, along with resources for.
decision, to account for resources at one scale,  which such estimates are readily available.
besides using up. funds that could be spent  We believe that  for the foreseeable future,
to collect information at other scales, will  any accounting system intended to provide
most certainly not produce all of the infor-  information for assessing sustainabUity will
mation that is important for understanding  need to use  primarily biophysical rather
how .those resources contribute to the pro-  than economic measures because many  of
duction of. environmental goods and ser-  the natural assets likely to be most impor-
vices that develop at different scales. Trees  tant for sustainability are never traded  in
grow and  reproduce and therefore, tree  markets and may never even be perceived
populations are productive natural  assets,  as valuable by the general population. The
But the forest in which the trees grow sup-  hierarchical structure is necessary to at least
ports tree growth and other environmental  draw attention to the pathways by which
values by providing a variety of biodiversity,  natural  assets generate values and to help
hydrological, and water .quality functions,  identify particularly important ecological
Thus the forest, which is made up of-and  relationships.
                                       27

-------
   Biophysical accounts such as those de-
veloped by ecologists to express ecological
integrity are often criticized because the link
between them and human welfare is ob-
scure. To ensure that the natural resource
accounts we are developing are expressed
in ways that make their relevance to humans
explicit, we have proposed a system that re-
lies on sets of environmental indicators that
monitor-the importance of specific assets to
socioeconomic values. For our purposes, the
links between biophysical accounts and.
socio-economic values include both.direct
contributions to marketed and unmarketed
values and less direct contributions associ-
ated with ecological processes that support
future flows of marketed and unmarketed
goods and services.
Accounts for the UMR Watershed

   Figure 9 is a highly aggregated summary
of the proposed  natural resource accounts.
for the Upper Mississippi (Appendix B pro-
vides a more complete version and identi-
fies relevant data likely to be incorporated
in environmental indicators). In Figure 9
specific high order and Ipw order environ-
mental asset accounts are listed along the
rows, and related "values," including both
socio-economic and ecological values, are
listed along the columns. Each frame char-
acterizes how or how much each account
(row) contributes to each type of value (col-
umn). In a fully developed set of accounts,
one or more indicators would be used within
each frame to express in a quantitative or
semi-quantitative manner,  the  extent to
which the specific  asset contributes to the
specific value.

   In principle, the accounts for built assets
and for most high order natural assets can
be measured and valued in the conventional
ways (e.g., using market prices  and non-
market valuation methods). Such high or-
der assets may also play important ecologi-
cal roles, or provide valuable information on
the status of other (typically larger-scale)
environmental assets. In  order to capture
both direct and indirect contributions of the
natural world .to wealth,  and to. begin ac-
counting for low order resources, however,
the accounting structure for natural assets
is being developed with the following gen-
eral characteristics:

(1) Accounts are physical  or biophysical in
   nature.             '

(2) Accounts are constructed in  terms of
   both quantity and quality of environ-
 •  mental assets using appropriate indica-
   tors or indexes.         , •

(3) All quality measures (of which near-term
   market value is one) are explicitly linked
   with a specific category of human inter-
   est'or concern. That is, all indexes  and
   quality measures are intended as mea-
  ..sures  of the significance of a particular
   resource for the satisfaction of specific
   human wants or needs.

(4) Accounts and construction of indicators
   of environmental qualities are  based on
   a hierarchy of resources.

   Many environmental quality measures
(indicators or indexes) are being constructed
with explicit consideration of the hierarchi-
cal relationships among environmental as-
sets. Figure 10 illustrates how information
about: natural assets may:be used to charac-
terize the quality of resources at larger hier-
archical levels. Account information may be
used directly, as when resource managers
are interested in the population size of
recreationally important fish species (shown
as an arrow straight across to the right hand
side of Figure 10), or indirectly, to provide
                                       28

-------
I
CD
 O


I
 O)
 8



w
              I
              a
             I
  s
  s

II
             5
                -
                                                                  :, •  •  i :

                                                                 1...I...1.1J...J..
 Figure 9. Chart of Accounts
                                              29

-------
              Information Flow Within Biophysical Accounting Scheme
     Information Gathering
          (Raw data)
               Abundance
            Species Diversity
             Guild Structure
                Land Use
               Cover Type
               Productivity
                Hydrology
            Habitat Diversity
            Connectedness
-
-
-
Information Row
(How data is used)
Species and Species _
Groups
?\
Quality Indicators/
J\
Lands
.1
7\ /
Quality Indicators
^
Ecological Systems -
\
V J>
• Quality Indicators
                 Information Use
                (Why collect data)
                  Integrated Pest Man.
                 • Species Diversity.
                  Resource Manag.
                 . Wetland Manag.
                 Agriculture, Forestry
                 Watershed Managmement
                 . Rood Hazard Assess
                 Ecosystem Manag.
Figure 10. Information Flow with Biophysical Accounting Scheme
information about the quality of assets at
larger hierarchical levels (downward arrows
in the center of Figure 10).
                  y
   Brook trout in the eastern United States/
for example, are both a major recreational
resource in their own right, and also sensi-
tive 'indicators of changes in conditions in
the watershed in which they are found.
Brook trout population status, therefore, not
only provides information with respect to
the (high order) trout population itself, but
also provides information on the (interme-
diate order) watershed of which it is a part,
and also tells us something useful about the
condition of the (low.order) stream inverte-
brates on which both stream ecology and
trout populations depend. It is likely, how-
ever, that information on trout populations
would provide only some of the informa-
tion necessary to assess changes in the con-
dition of a watershed and that the relevant
information about trout resources would not
be reflected in conventional market or rec-
reational fishing statistics.. Other relevant
data might include information on land use,
wetland abundance and distribution, stream
hydrology, and so on. This approach to the
development of quality indicators to supple-
ment economic value estimates for environ-
mental assets parallels a  variety of ap-
proaches being developed for purposes of
environmental assessment in  other con-
texts^

   Once natural capital accounts are estab-
lished, we expect that it will be most useful
to monitor changes in select sets of them at
different levels within the hierarchy that all
relate to a particular economic or environ-
mental concern. Coincidental changes in a
number of relatively weak leading or lag-
                                        30

-------
  ging indicators suggesting the same phe-  tional economic accounts are based ondata
  nomena will yield more robust information  collected by businesses and households for
  if they can be interpreted together. We ex-  other purposes, which are reported to gov-
.  pect that this will put a premium on devel-  eminent agencies at very little additional
  oping new graphical tools for the rapid pre-  cost. The data required to establish natural
  sentation of multi-dimensional data.      '  resource accounts, on the other hand, in
                             •      '      most.cases will need to be collected ex-
  Conclusions                          , ,  pressly for that.purpose. Developing spe-
                                          cific, problem-oriented natural resource ac-
     Our research  so far suggests that, al-  counts may be the only practical way to adr
  though there is no near-term solution to the  dress questions about the sustainability pf
  problem of valuing the natural resource im-  current human activities and may be the
  pacts of agriculture in the UMR watershed  only practical way to focus policy-related
  (or anywhere else), a natural resource ac-  scientific research.
  counting system of the sort described here:      ',      .             .  .   '
  can provide useful information about those  Acknowledgments
  impacts. Where environmental problems
  have been identified, presumably because     This  scoping project addressed, many
  some mix of human activities is having; sub-  complex conceptual and practical issues that
  stantial negative impacts on environmental  exist in the gray area between economics and
  assets considered to be valuable or indis-  ecology.  Like any complex  undertaking  of
  pensable to humans, biophysical linkages  this kind, it would not have been possible
  can be.spelled out. Often, this can be done  without the help of many formal and:infor-
  mbst effectively, working upstream from a  mal collaborators from both disciplines. In
  recognized environmental problem to the  particular, we wish to express our thanks to
  economic sectors that contribute to the prob-  our official collaborators, Leonard Shabman
  lem. Such an approach involves starting  of Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Frank
  with something specific '(a problem, issue,  Arnold of the Environmental Law Institute,
  or goal), and designing economic and natii-  Jay Shogren and Phillip Boumal of Iowa
  ral resource  accounts to deal with it, rather  State University, Peter Kuch and Ken Adler.
  than attempting to build a generic set of ac-  of the EPA, Office of Policy Analysis; Jack
  counts to deal with all.problems that may  Cumberland^   of   the  University  of-
  arise.                                    Maryland's International Institute for Ecb-
                                        •  logical Economics; and our unofficial col-
     It is important to note that there are two  laborators, Ted Heinz of the U.S. Depart-
  reasons why natural resource accounts, es-"  ment of Interior and Michael LeBlanc and
  pecially those developed at a regional level,  James Hrubovchack of the U.S. Department
  may never be as thorough as economic ac- ' of Agriculture, the economic  staff at the
  counts. The mostobvious reason is that the  Army Corps of Engineers offices in St. Paul
  complexity  of natural systems which are  and at Ft. Belvoir, and John O'Connpr of the
  composed of organisms and processes too  World Bank. We also owe a special note of
  numerous to measure and trace exceeds the  gratitude:  .to Barry Drazkowski,  Ken
  complexity  of industrial production pro-  Lubinski, and the rest of the staff of the Long
  cesses and market transactions.-The second  Term Resource Monitoring Program of the
  and often overlooked reason is that conven-  National Biological  Service's Enyironmen-

         '                  .    :         31   •         '   .'•'."  . -. .'     .  -'   ' "

-------
tal  Management Technical  Center in
Onalaska, Wisconsin who gave generously
of their time and expertise. Thanks also to
research assistants Chad Medcroft and Amal
Srivastava and to Sandy Koskoff here at CBL
for working overtime to meet tight report-
ing deadlines. •                        '.   '


Notes

1  Several excellent collections of papers dealing with
  natural resource accounting have been published
  recently, including Lutz, Ernst (Ed.), 1993. Toward
  Improved Accounting for the Environment, Proceed-
  ings of a UNSTAT-World Bank Symposium, World
  Bank, Washington, DC.; Environmental Accounting
  for Sustainable Development: Selected papers from
  joint UNEP/World Bank workshops, World Bank,
  Washington, DC, 1993.; Yusuf J. Ahmad, Salah El
  Serafy, Ernst Lutz (Eds.), 1992. Handbook of National
  Accounting:  Integrated Environmental and Economic
  Accounting—Interim Version, United Nations Envi-
  ronment Program (UNEP). Reports on specific ap-
  plications  include P. Bartelmus, E. Lutz, S.
  Schweinfest, 1992. Integrated Environmental and Eco-
  nomic Accounting: A Case Study for Papua New
  Guinea. World Bank Environment working paper
  #54. World Bank; Jan Van Tongeren 1991. Integrated
  Environmental and Economic Accounting: A Case
  Study for Mexico. World Bank Environment work-
  ing paper #50. World Bank; J. Theys, J., 1989. Envi-
  ronmental Accounting in Development Policy:  The
  French Experience.;R. Repetto, 1989. Wasting Assets:
  National Resources in National Income Accounts (for
  Indonesia) World Resources Institute, Washington,
  DC.                             '    ,

:  The term "Hicksian income" originated with John
  R. Hicks, who denned income as "The maximum
  amount that can be spent on consumption in  one
  period without reducing real consumption expen-
  ditures in future periods." John R. Hicks. 1946.
  Value and Capital. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

5  World Commission on Environment and Devel-
  opment 1987. Our Common Future. Oxford Univer-
  sity Press.

4  Competing  and often conflicting concepts of sus-
  tainability were catalogued by Pearce, Markandya,
  and Barbier in Blueprint for a Green Economy,
  Earthscan Publications Ltd., London, 1989 and
  were synthesized and interpreted more recently by
  Michael Toman in "Economics and 'Sustainability':
  Balancing Tradeoffs and Imperatives" in Land Eco-
  nomics, 70(4); 399-413.

5 Supporters of the concept of "weak sustainability"
  include such prominent economists as Nobel Lau-
  reate Robert Solow of MIT, who observes that, "We
  have actually done quite well at the hands of our
  ancestors. Given how poor they were and how rich
  we are, they might properly have saved less and
  consumed more."  (Solow,, R.M. Intergenerational
  Equity and Exhaustible Resources in Review of Eco-
  nomic Studies, Symposium  on the Economics of
  Exha.ustible Resources; Edinburg, Scotland, 1974).
  Costanza and Daly present a  typical view of
.  "strong sustainability" as follows: "A  minimum
  necessary condition for sustainability is the main-
  tenance of the total natural capital stock at or above
  the "current level. While a lower stock  of natural
  capital may be sustainable, society can allow no
 . further decline in natural capital given the large
  uncertainty and the dire consequences 'of guessing
  wrong" Costanza,' R. and H. Daly. 1992. Natural
  capital and sustainable development. Conservation
  Biology 6:37-46.    •

6 Economic Report of the President. Transmitted to the
  Congress February 1994. U.S. Government Print-
  ing Office, Washington, DC.

7 Our treatment emphasizes managing resources so
  that future generations do not have a diminished
  quality of life compared with ours. We do not deal
  explicitly with.some important  issues  related to
  population growth and the practice of "discount-
  ing" used in economic analysis. Some broader con-
  cepts of sustainability may require identifying
  threshold levels of certain accounts beyond which
  a catastrophic ecological and economic-collapse
  may  occur. We deal with this indirectly later by
  referring to thejunformation value pf specific natu-
  ral resource accounts.

8 In practice, value added is often  estimated at the
  sectoral or regional level from published income
  statistics by adding all "Payments to Households."
  The USDA's IMPLAN regional modeling system,
  for example, estimates value added as the sum of
  " wages, salaries, and proprietors income plus in-
  direct business taxes."

9 Nemmers defines value added as " the difference be-
  tween the purchase price of raw materials or fin-
  ished parts and the sale price of the product. If
  depreciation and indirect business taxes are.de-
                                             32

-------
  -ducted from this difference the value added for all
  output is national income" p. 507, E.E. Nemmers.
  1979,.  Dictionary, of Economics and Business*
  , Littlefield, Adams, .& Co., New Jersey, 1979.  '  .

 10 Approximately 10% of terrestrial animal biomass
•  consists of ants, and ants provide a variety of eco-
  logical services, from seed'dispersal and the aera-
  . tion of soils, to consumption of a variety of detri-
  tus and other organic matter. (See The Ants by Bert
  Holldobler and E.O. Wilson, Harvard University
  Press, Cambridge, 1990). However/consumer
  spending on ant sprays and traps, hundreds of mil-
  lions of dollars in the United States alone, would
  reveal negative human values attached to ants by
  most households, and one would expect that un-
  der most circumstances respondents in "willing-
  ness to pay" surveys would express negative val-
  . ues'as well.    '

11 Information about IMPLAN is available from the
  USD A, U.S. Forest Service, Implan Center at Fort
  Collins> Colorado or from a private vendor, the
 . , Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. in Stillwater, MN.
  The Minnesota Group organized the IMPLAN da-
  tabases used in our study.

12 Preliminary estimates of agricultural production at
  the sub-county (flood plain) level and the amount
  of agricultural cargo snipped on the UMR naviga-
  tion system by each sector in each region were
  made by collaborating researchers at the Iowa State
  University, Department of Economics.        •

13 Recent summaries of facts and figures supporting
  this presumption include: Soil and' Water Quality:
  An Agenda for Agriculture by the National Research
  Council's Committee on Long range Soil and Wa-
  ter Conservation, National Academy Press, Wash-
  ington, D.C.;  1993 and The National Water Quality
  Inventory: 1992-Report to Congress, EPA Office of
  Water, Washington, D.C.; March, 1994'

u This is especially true since time and budget limi-
  tations prevented us from conducting sensitivity
  tests or examining some questions raised by unex-
  pected empirical results. In particular, the low in-
  come generated by oil-bearing crop production and
  the relative productivity of different reaches of the
 • UMR flood plain raised concerns that warrant fur-
,. ther investigation. The effects of different sector
  aggregation on the development and interpretation
  of results also needs more research before the re-
  sults presented here can be fully evaluated.
, ls See "The Econornks of Ecological Restoration by
 ,  Dennis King" in Natural Resource Damage Assess-
 '.' ment: Law and Economics, edited  by Duffield and
  ' Ward, John Wiley Publishers, New York; 1992 and
 .  Making Sense of Wetland Restoration Costs by Den-.
   nis_M. King and Curtis C Bohlen; A Report pre-
   pared for the EPA, Office of Policy Analysis and
   the Department'of Energy, GEES Contribution #
   UMCEES-CBL-94-045, January, 1994.

 16 A general reference dealing with non-market valu-
   ation methods is" Valuing Natural Assets ed.  by
   Raymond J. Kopp and V. Kerry Smith; Resources
   for the Future, Washington, D.C., 1993; for a criti-
   cal review of the contingent valuation method, the
   most controversial method and the one most often
   cited as being  relevant to issues  involving'
   sustainability, see Contingent Valuation: n Critical
  .Assessment by Cambridge Economics, Inc., Proceed-
   ings of a Symposium held in Washington, D.C. on
   April 2-3,1992    •             '

 17 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 1991. Sixth Annual
  •Addendum: Upper Mississippi River System En-
   vironmental Management Program. U.S. Army
   Corps of Engineers North Central Division, Chi-
   cago. U.S. Army Corps of. Engineers 1992. Upper
   Mississippi River System Environmental Manage-
   ment Program: Midterm Evaluation Report. U.S.
   Army Corps of Engineers North Central Division.
   Chicago.              ;                     . ,

 18 See footnote 1.                            '

 19 O'Neill, R, V, and D. L. DeAngelis and J. B. Waide
   and T. F. H. Allen. 1986.' A Hierarchical  Concept of
   Ecosystems. Monographs in Population Biology 23.
   Princeton University Press. Princeton, New Jersey.

 20 Adamus, P.R., E,J. Clairain, R.D. Smith, and R.E.
,  Young. Wetland Evaluation Technique (WET) Vol-
   ume IT:  Methodology. Costanza, R., B.G. Norton,
   and B.D. Haskell. 199-2. Ecosystem Health: New Goals
  forEnvironmental'Management. Island Press. Wash-
   ington D.C., Woodley, S., J. Kay, G. Francis. Ecologi-
   cal Integrity and the Management of Ecosystems. 1993.
   St. Lucie Press. Canada.  ,

 21 Lubinski, K., R. Gaugush, S. Gutreuter, T. Owens,
   S. Rogers, P. Thiel/and j. Wlosinski. 1993.,Current
 • Ecological Conditions. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Ser-
   vice Environmental Management Technical Cen-
   ter. Onalaska, Wisconsin.

 22 Bellrqse, F.C., S.P: Havera, F.L. Paveglio, Jr., and
                                              33

-------
  D.W. Steffeck. 1983. The Fate of Lakes in the Illi-
  nois River Valley. Biological Notes No. 119. Illinois
  Natural History Survey. Champaign, Illinois.

a Lubinski, et al., 1993. Op. Cit.

:4 For example, Turner, R.E., and N.N. Rabalais. 1991.
  Changes in Mississippi River water quality this
  century: Implications for coastal foodwebs. Bio-.
  scieHce"41(3):140-14'7.

a O'Brien, W.P., M.Y. Rathbun, and P.O.  Bannon.
  1992. Gateways To Commerce. National Park Service,
  Rocky Mountain Region.

* Ibid.

- Gaugush. R. 1994. Interview on Nov. ,15, 1994 at
  the Environmental Management Technical Center,
  Onalaska, Wisconsin.

M U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 1991. Op. Cit. U.S.
  Army Corps of Engineers 1992. Op. Cit.. See Note 9.
                                               34

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                                 APPENDIX A
           ESTIMATION OF INCOME RECEIVED AND INCOME GENERATED
Background           -\  '

   The purpose of the project is to illustrate
how methods of natural resource account-
ing can be used with conventional economic
accounts to promote sustainable watershed
management. For reasons described in the
main body of the report, we used accounts
related to agricultural sectors in the Upper
Mississippi River (UMR-) watershed'for pur-
poses of illustration, and based our analysis
on a concept of sustainability that requires
the present generation to "leave'future gen-
erations with, the social capital, consisting
of human, natural, and physical (man-made)
capital, to create our kind of life or a life of
at least equal quality to ours."

   Based on information described  in the
report, we established a "rebuttable pre-
sumption" that agricultural sectors  in the
UMR watershed, because of the nutrients,
sediments and  contaminants they release
into surrounding water bodies,  have a net
negative effect on natural capital.  This al-
lowed us to apply criteria described on page
20 of the report to evaluate the sustainability
of each agricultural sector on the basis of its
capacity to invest in other "offsetting" forms
of capital, and to determine whether such
investments are actually being made.

   For each agricultural sector we measured
income  received from all sources and income
generated (net of direct and indirect transfer
payments). For reasons described in the re-
port, we decided to use income generated, as
the basis for evaluating a sector's capacity
to invest in "offsetting" forms of capital.
   The method we used to estimate income
generated for each sector in each region in-
volved four basic steps: (1) estimate income
received; (2) adjust for direct transfer pay-.
ments (i.e., federal subsidies); (3) adjust for
indirect transfer payments (i.e., federal cost-
sharing programs); and (4) adjust for other
public costs (i.e., operation and maintenance
of navigation and flood control structures).
The method was described in the main body
of the report arid  illustrated in Figure.5, a
graphical depiction of income estimating
procedure; Figure 6, a numerical illustration
of the income estimating procedure; and Fig-
ure 7, estimates of income received and gen-
erated by sector/by Region.  This Attach-
ment, which has five sections, provides ad-
ditional information about the estimating
procedure and the data sources used. Inter-
ested readers can obtain further technical
details and data from the authors.      '
Contents
Section A-1-:

Section A-2:


Section A-3:

Section A-4:

Section A-5:


Section A-6:
Economic Variables used to.
Calculate Income Generated '
Definitions, of. Terms used in.
Describing Estimating  Proce-
dure           .  . .. '      "
Sources of Direct and Indirect
Transfer Payments.     •
Estimation of Direct and Indi-
rect. Transfer Payments
Estimation of'Annual Capital
Consumption (structures and
equipment only)
Caveats and'Special Consider-
ations             ."'•.'
                                       A-l

-------
             SECTION  A-l
           'UPPER MISSISSfPPt RIVER (U M R)
          NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING STUDY

             Section A^l  (Sectors 1-4)
SECTOR CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL ECONOMIC INCOME ($ millions)

        Sector 01    DAIRY FARM PRODUCTS

|(11 GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS

ATM
S.914.191
0.000
S.914.191
5.061.779
	 852.412
720.797
131. SIS
467.221

Watershed
4,613.601
-Z22.831
Totll
138.512
21.857
1 9.296
2.561
Reach A
0.000
0.000
, 0.000
Reach B-
O.OOOJ

0.000

        Sector 02    POULTRY AND I-GQS

(1> GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS 	
(3) VALUE OF COOPS SOLD 	 .
(5) GROSS VALUfAppED_ 	 	 	
(11) less Feoefil Soenemg on Flood Protection

Study • •
	 989.582
-16.916
	 -69.254

748.122
748.122
92.564
ST54T

Total
5.363
0.638
~ 0.282
: -0.385
Reach A

Reach 8

Reach C .

       Sector 03    RANCH FED CATTLE


(12) «FT VALUE AOMDHd^edl 1
•3.458.877
1.939.911
1.518.966
• 1 .242.723
124.520
2,276.993
937.976

77.505
43.012
34.493
5.925

R
Reach A

Reach B



       Sector 04    RANGE FED CATTLE

(1J GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS 	 ..
(3) VALUE OF GOOQS_SOLO __. 	 	


	 412.044
1 26.562


226
226"
	 142


149
149
771
37BI


Total
7.927
7.927
™ S.11S
iiSTT
1.823

• Reach A
"~ 0382


Reach B




                     A-2

-------
            UPPER -MlSSISSIPPt RIVER (U M S)
          NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING STUDY
              Section A-1  (Sectors 5-8)
SECTOR CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL ECONOMIC INCOME (S millions)

        Setter as    CATTLE FEEDL'OTS
(1) GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS
(3) VALUE OF GOODS SOLO - .
(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED

. Study
2.638.853
2.638,853
' 	 1.479.548
1.159.305
948.617
	 853.619
/ U'M. R
Watershed
~ 2.010.948
' '' 0000
' 2;010.948
1.103.856
~ 907.092
137.189
' 749.902
72.394
677.508"
Total.
. 0.000
44.766
6.137

Retch A
0.000
1 8.4O6
2.551

Reach 8
0.000
20.240
. 2.698

Reacn C .
0.000
6.121
0.888

        Sector 06    SHEEP, LAMB, AND GOATS
(11 GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS 	
(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED • 	
(6) less Net Cantal Decrecaticn
(8) NET VALUE- ADDED (unadjusted) - 	


569.115
569.115
	 . 323.275
0.000
Sector 07
1,460.491
•105.174
1 U M R 1
Watershed
0.000
35.400
~ ' 16.260
HOGS. PK3S, AN
2.361.04*
' 1.073.034
Total
8.534
5.129
3.40S
0.696
0.000
0.307
D SWINE
Tot*
O.OOO
. 51.429
' 29.926
Reach A

Reach A
: 9.886

- Reach 3 ' •

Reach B

Reich C



        Sector 08    OTHER MEAT ANIMAL PRODUCTS

(11 GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS 	 . 	
(10) less Feoeral Socnaing on Navigation
( 1 2) NET VALUE ADDED (aaiusted)
1.143


O.OOO


Total •
O.OOO
. 0.000
Reacn A

Reach '8
; 0000

0.000
                  A-3

-------
             UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (U M R)
           NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING STUDY
              Section A-1   (Sectors 9-12)
SECTOR CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL ECONOMIC INCOME ($ millions)  •

        Sector 09   MISCELLANEOUS LIVESTOCK

(2) ess Direct Transfer Payments
(4) less Cott of Goods Used
(S) w-r« M»t fjrvr.l Oorecation _
(m NFT VAI us ADMD (unadjusted)
Study
182.593
• 0,000
182.593
~ 155.517


U M R
Watershed
142.823
	 142.823
121.002
4.590
0.000
-0.5S1

Total
1.492
1.492
0,223
0.054
. Reach A
0.482
0.482
0.112
0.017
0.043
Reacn 8
0.515
0.515
0.065
0 000
0.019
-0.013
0.495
0.495
0.046
0 000
0.018
-0.037
        Sector 10    COTTON
fIJ GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS
(3) VALUE Of GOOOS SOLD
f 7) aus Net Additions to Inventory
(9) (ess indirect Transfer Piyments
Ml) )e*s Federal Soendtna on Rood Protection
6.053
12.737
8.834
5.330
' 0.311
0.259
0.000
Total
0.499
0.072
0.746
0.682
Reach A
O.OOO
O.OOO
/O.OOO
OiOOO
0.000
0.000
Reacn 8
0.000
O.OOO
O.OOO
r • o.ooo
o.ooo
0.000
Reach C •
0.044
0.499
0.072
0.746
0.000
0.682
        Sector 11     FOOD GRAINS

(11 GROSS ANNUAL RECHPTS
(3) VALUE OF GOOOS SOLO
(111 ass Federal Spending on Flood Protection
: 857.099
829.558
92.842
40.234

U M ft
' 423.T21
	 330.243:
1 19.862
	 . 3.989
1 - O.OOO

Total
28.925
0.350
• -1.016
Reacn A
0.032
0.746
0.000
0.103
Reacn B
7 0.348
9.163
,. .....
0.000
~ 0.109
-0.507
Reacn C
0.748
• 19.016
0.138
-0.486
        Sector 12    FEED GRAINS
(11 GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS
(?) VALUE Of GOOOS SOLD
(SI GROSS VALUE ADDED
(7) slus Net Additions to Inventory
fill ten Federal Soendim on Flood Protection
Study
7.987.877
7.728.957
~ 1.502.548
886.641
	 616.717
378.719
U M R
	 	 202.628
6.048.6O4
" 1.21 7.456
687.955
0.588
	 530.088
~~ 296.382
	 53.286
180.421
Total ~]
1 6.587
-22.465
11.048
1.246
0.167
Reacn A
1.656
38.530
5.340
5.570
0.116
.3.032
Reach 8
3.212
80.967
10.793
4.143
0.621
~' -1.176
Reach C
1.719
, 43.670
6.332
1.335
O.SQ9
-1.639
                     A-4

-------
             UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER  (U MR)
           NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING STUDY
              , Section A-l:  (Sectors 13-16)
SECTOR CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL" ECONOMIC INCOME  (J millions)

       -'Sector 13   HAY AND PASTURE
..; '

(2) less Direct Transfer Payments
(3) VALUE OF GOODS SOLD . -

(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED •
(6) tegs Net Capital Deprecation .
(7) , plus Net Additions to inventory
(8) NET VALUE ADDED (Unadjusted)

(10) less Federal Soending on Navigation
(11) less Federal Soendino on Food Protection

Study
Are*
667,821
20.394
647.427
383.563
263.864
54.619
O.OOS
209.250
29.782
0.000
0.000
1 79.468
U M R
Watershed

13:645
433.181
234.466

- 33.388
0.003
165.331
19.926
0.000
0.000
145.404
•' - U M R FtoodBlain .
Total
, . 15.295

14.828
8.732
6.096
1.214
o.ooo
4.882
0.682
0.000
0.000
4.200
Reach -A
.3.625
" 0.263
3.362
4.181

0.579
' . . 0.000
3.602
0.385
0.000
0.000
3.217
Racn 8
3.223
0.098
3.124
2.141
0.984
0.235
,0.000
0.698
0.144
0.000
0.000
- 0.554

Reach. C

0.105
3.342
2.41 1
0.931

0.000.
0.582
0..154

0.000
.-• ' 0.428
        Sector 14   GRASS SEEDS

( 1 ) GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS

(3) VALUE OF GOODS SOLD .

(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED .

(7) dus Net Additions to Inventory
(8) NET VALUE ADDED (unadiusted)
(9) less indirect Transfer Payments'



Study
Am
25.117
0.000
25.117
18.763
6.354
2.672
0.000
3.682
0.000
o.ooo
o.ooo
3.682
U M R
Watershed
5.883
O.OOO
5.883
. 4.334
, 1 .549
0.617
o.ooo
0.932
0.000
0.000

0.932
• U M R RcodtXam
Total .
0.253
0.000
0.253
0.189
0.06S
0.027.

0.038
0.000
0.000

0.038
. Reach A
0.000
0.000

0.000
0.000
0.000

0.000
0.000
0.000

0.000
Reach 8
0.066 1

0.066
0X352
0.014


0.007




Reach C
0.188


0.137
0.051
0.020

0.031

0.000

.,;• 0.031
        Sector 15    TOBACCO

(1) GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS

(3) VALUE OF GOODS SOLD •

(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED







Study
Aral
' 15.402
0.499
14.902
13.418
T.4SS
1.911
0.001
-0.426
0.730
0.000
o.ooo
-1.156
U M R
Watershed
8.661
0.281
. 8.380
7.251
.' '1.129
1 .033
0.000
0.097

0.000
0.000
-0.314

Tota)
0.553
. ' 0.018
0.535
0.459
• 0.075
0.064

0.012
• 0.026

O.OOO
-0.015
Reach A
0.553
0.018
0.535
• 0.4S9
0.075


0.012
0.026

0.000

Reach 8


0.000

0.000




'0.000

Reach C

0.000





O.OOO




       Sector 16    FRUITS




(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED
(6) less Net Caortal Oeoreeation






Study
Area
153.300
148.389
129.943
18.446
18.504
0.012
-0.046
7.182
0.000
0.000
-7.228
U M R
watershed •
105.643
102.259
88.605
13.653
12.617
0.007
1.043
4.949


-3.907

Total
3.689

7.370
1.041
1.038
0.007

0.407


^ -0.397
Reach A
2.237
2.165
1.802
0.363,
0.250
0.000
0.113
* 0.105


0.009
.Reach 8
1.883
' 1.823
1.637
0.185
0.218
0.001
-0.032
0.088




Reach C

' 4.423
3.931
0.492

0.006

0.214



                     A-5

-------
             UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (U H R)
           NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING STUDY
              Section A-1   (Sectors 17-20)
SECTOR CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL ECONOMIC INCOME (S millions)

        Sector 17   TREE NUTS     !            .     ,

H) GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS
(3) VALUE OF GOODS SOLD
(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED

	 	 13.666
~ 1.295
0.724

U M R
0.779
0.038

Tot*
0.002
0.017
0.030
0.002
• 0.023
0.000
Reach A
0.000
0.000
0.000
O.OOO
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
o.ooo
Reacn C
.0.002
0.017
0.002
0.02B
0.000
        Sector 18   VEGETABLES

(S) GROSS VALUE ADDED
(9) less Indirect Transfer Ptyments
(11) less Fea«nl Soenditxj on Flood Protection
Aral
2.112.622
68.281
	 2.044.341
227.869
1.179
100.173

1.776.593
1.719.173
193.618
217.239
0.991
34.239
	 -106.870 1

Tot*'
36.420
1.177
4.404
0.033
-0.652
0.000
-2.379
Reacn A
2.823
•O.OOS
O.OOO
•1.140
0.416
-0.116
0.000
-0.283
1.165
. -0.532
0.000
-0.956
        Sector 19    SUGAR CROPS

fl) GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS
5) GROSS VALUE ADDED
(11) less Federal Soendinq on Flood Protection
Study
108.498
	 1.782
	 74.738
31.978
21.335
. 2.S93
0.000
18.742

27.088
~~ 26.643
19.951
6.693
2.841
3.852
0.000

0.000
oeoo
0.000
! 0.000
R«cn A
0.000
0.000
O.OOO
0.000
0.000
O.OOO
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
o.ooo
0.000
• o.ooo
: o.ooo
        Sector 20    MISCELLANEOUS CROPS

(11 GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS
(31 VALUE OF GOODS SOLD
(9) less indirect Transfer Payments -
(12) NET VALUE ADDED (adiinted)
39.136
39.136
	 26.473
8.893

U M R
27.042
18.381
0.000
6.043

Total
0.251
0.035
0.057
Reacn A
0.000
5589
0.012
0.030
O.OOO
Reacn 8
0.000
0.051
0.007
: 0.012
0.000
Reach C
0.000
0.111
0.016
0.015
0.000
                       A-6

-------
•  •            UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (U M R)
            NATURAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTING STUDY  ,  •

           •  .   Section A-1  (Sector 21)  .
 SECTOR CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL ECONOMIC INCOME  (J millers)

        Sector 21   OIL BEARING CROPS

( 1 ) GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS
( 2 ) (ess Direct Transfer Payments
(3) VALUE OF GOODS SOLD
(4) . >ess Cost of Goods Used
(5) GROSS VALUE ADDED .
(6) . . less Net Caoital Oeoreoation
(7) pus Net Additions to Inventory
(8) NET VALUE ADDED (iradiusted)
(9) less indiren Transfer Payments
(10) less Federal Soending on Navigation
1 1 ) less Federal Soendinq on Flood Pratectior
1 2) NET VALUE ADDED (adiusted)
Study
Area
• • 5.121.319
.151.577
4.969.742
4.290.172
679.570
S10.921
0.000
68.649
230.596
17.772
0.000
-179.719
' U M R
Watersned
3.593.420
• 106.3 55
.3.487,065
2.969.384
517.681
422.840
0.000
94.841
161.800
1 5.030
0.000
-31.989
U M R Ftoodoiain
Total
146.022
4.322
141.700
124.972
16.726
17.341
0.000
• -0.613
6.575
0.856
0.000
••-8.044
Reacrr A
' 4.393
0.130
4.263
3.506
, 0:758
0.486
' 0.000
0.272
0.198
0.039
.0.000
0.035
. Reacn 8 i Reacn c
74.9371 ' 66.692
2.218
72.719
64.707
8.012
1.974
64.718
. ' 56.759
7.959
8.6251 8.230
0.000] 0.000
-0.614
-'.374
C.428
-0.271
' 3.003
0.339
0.0001 , 0.000
-4.4161 -3.663
                    .A-7

-------
                                  SECTION A-2
                              DEFINITIONS OF TERMS
(1)  GROSS ANNUAL RECEIPTS.  Total
    ^revenues received from all sources includ-
    ing sales of products and services, rents,
    royalties, and other property income, and
    direct transfer payments from the federal
    government.

(2)  DIRECT  TRANSFER  PAYMENTS.
    Transfers of income, from taxpayers inside
    or outside the region to this sector. This
    excludes payments that reflect the fair
    market value of goods or services re-
    ceived, e.g., sales to the federal govern-
    ment, and includes payments  associated
    with direct farm subsidies and' other in-
    come support programs.

(3)  VALUE OF GOODS SOLD.   The mar- ,
    ket value of goods and services produced
    and sold, (Row (1) less Row (2)).

(4)  COST OF GOODS USED.  Purchases
    from other sectors of intermediate goods
    and services used in production.

(5)  GROSS VALUE ADDED.  The differ-
    ence between the VALUE OF GOODS
    SOLD and the VALUE OF GOODS USED,
    (Row (3) less Row (4)). Includes payments
    to households in .the form of employee
    compensation, proprietary  and other
    property income, indirect business taxes,
    ' and capital depreciation allowances.

(6)  CAPITAL DEPRECIATION.   Spending
    required to restore or replace used plant
    and equipment.

(7)  ADDITIONS TO INVENTORY.  Net
    change in the value of goods produced
    or purchased, but not used or sold.
(8)  NET VALUE ADDED (Unadjusted).
    Gross Value Added less Capital Depre-
    ciation plug Additions to Inventory, (Row
   '(5) less. Row (6) plus Row (7)).        ,
     i   -        -       .-           -. .-

(9)  INDIRECT TRANSFER PAYMENTS.
    Dollar value of federal assistance pro-
   • vided in the form of commodity loans,
    land improvements, farm storage assis-
    tcince, and the provision of other goods
    and services used to produce, distribute,
    or market products, excluding annual
    federal spending to.operate and maintain
   . river transportation and flood protection
    structures.          .
     !   •   "    "  '
(10) ANNUALIZED  PUBLIC COSTS—
    Navigation.  Average annual non-reim-
   •bursed federal expenditures necessary to
 '   construct, operate, maintain, and restore
    navigation control  structures (locks,
    dams, and channels) in order to facilitate
    flows of agricultural inputs and products.
     !                '             '  '
(11) ANNUALIZED PUBLIC COSTS —
    Hood Protection.  Average annual non-
    reimbursed federal expenditures to plari>
    design, build, maintain, and repair flood
    protection devices (levees arid reservoirs.)
    to protect agricultural property.

(12) NET VALUE ADDED (Adjusted). Unad-
    justed Net Value Added (line 8) minus In-
    direct Transfer Payments (Line 9) and other
    Public Costs (Lines 10 and 11). NOTE: This
    intermediate measure of the net economic
    income is 'not adjusted to reflect non-mar-.
    ket environmental costs or benefits or as-
    sociated changes in natural capital.    ;
                                        A-8

-------
                                  SECTION A-3

              SOURCES OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT TRANSFER PAYMENTS
 BACKGROUND

    For purposes of supporting international
 trade negotiations and trade agreements
 (e.g., NAFTA, GATT) the U.S. .Department
 of Agriculture estimates direct and indirect
 transfer payments, for twenty varieties of
 crops and nine varieties of livestock. These
 are released as Producer Subsidy Equivalen-
 cies (PSE's) which are presented as "A Per-
 cent of Total Value of Production" by com-
 modity type. We obtained PSE's for years
 1982 through 1993 and estimated sector level
 subsidies on the basis of PSE's for the year
 1991.      ' ,

    Thefollowing'secrions are taken directly
 from: Estimates of Producer and Consumer
 Subsidy Equivalents. U.S. Department of
 Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
 Statistical Bulletin No. 803. Washington,
 D.C.;1990        ••      ••'-..

 Direct Transfer Payments
f                    '
    Policies in this group are financial out-
 lays or cash transfers between .the govern-
 ment and producers for the purpose of aug-
 menting  incomes of the targeted group:
 Most direct transfer payments take the form
 of Income'support. They include:

 1.  Crop Insurance—Income support. The
    FDIG has provided insurance  against
    production  losses due to weather and
    other unavoidable natural events .since
    1980.     .       •  •    .     '  '
 2.  Deficiency Payments—Income sup-
    port. Producers participating in acreage
  .  reduction programs receive the differ-
   ence between target prices and the higher
   of market prices or loan rates on eligible
   production.

3. Disaster—Income support. Disaster
   payments compensate participating
   producers for prevented plantings or low
   yields due to natural conditions. '
4, Diversion—Income support. Participat-
   ing producers receive payments for pro-'
  • duction foregone on part of the reduced
 .  'acreage.      '         -

5. Loan Forfeit Benefits—Income Sup-
   port. When a "CCC non recourse com-
   modity loans" matures, producers may
   chopse to. forfeit  the commodity rather
   than pay back the loan with interest and.
   receive the prevailing market price. Pro-
   ducers receive income benefits when
   they forfeit grain if the loan rate is above
   prevailing market prices.
6.  PIK Entitlements—Income Support.
   Payments can be made either in cash or
  • through commodities.
7.  Dairy Diversion Payments—Income
   Support. Producers willing to p a r t i c i -
   pate are paid a certain price for forego-
   ing marketing's on 5%-30%  of  their
   base milk marketing's.           •     "
8.  Dairy Assessments—Income Support.
   Producers are assessed $0.50 -$1.00 /
   CWT on all milk marketed commercially
   to offset costs of the dairy program.
9.  Marketing Loans—Income Support. A
   marketing loan allows  repayment  of
   commodity loans at levels below the loan
  . rate.  '•,".'•
                                      A-9

-------
Indirect Transfer Payments

   In general, .the result of programs that do
not involve direct payment to farmers but
do involve spending that provide financial
benefits to farmers. They include:

1. Price Enhancing Policies—Price inter-
   vention. Acreage reduction programs,
   CCC, inventory action, import tariffs,
   and export programs provide support to
   . the extent that they cause domestic prices
   to be above prices received in world mar-
   kets. Although many commodities re-
   ceive price support, support can be mea-
   sured only if price gaps are observed.

2. Beef Purchases—Price intervention. To
   minimize the effect of the dairy herd
   buyout program on red meat prices, the
   CCC is mandated to  purchase 400 mil-
   lion pounds of red meat as part of the
   dairy program.  -

3. Tariffs—Price intervention. Tariffs raise
   the price protection to domestic produc-
   ers.
4. Fluid Milk Premiums—Price interven-
   tion.' Prices of beverage milk tend to be
   higher, than for  milk used to produce
   manufactured dairy products. Some of
   this price gap may be due to federal milk
   marketing orders, which regulate milk-
   flow.

5. Price Support/Quotas—Price interven-
   tion.  Domestic  price support quotas
   coupled with quotas/tariffs support do-
   mestic prices above world prices.
6. Commodity Loans—Input assistance.
   Participating producers may take  out
   non recourse loans by pledging crops as
   collateral. Producers with loans have the
   option of repaying loans with interest or
   forfeiting their crops to the CCC..
7. Farm Credit—Input assistance. The
   Farmers Home Administration offered-
   loans to producers at lower than market
   rates of interest.
                          1 •
8. Fuel Excise Tax—Inputs assistance. All
   off-highway uses of diesel fuel and gaso-
   line including agriculture are exempt
   from federal excise taxes.    .

9. Pest and Disease Control—Input assis-
   tance. Activities of the Animal and Plant
   Health Inspection are included.

10.'Grazing Fees—Inputs assistance, the
   Forest Service and Bureau of Land Man-
   agement charge below market fees for
   livestock grazing on public range land.
11. Emergency Feed—Input assistance.
   Producers may be reimbursed by the.
   CCC for up to 50% of the cost of feed pur-
   chased during periods of emergency
   when livestock feed losses due natural
   disasters occur.

12. Advisory—Marketing assistance. Ac-
  - tivities of the Extension Service and the
   Agricultural Cooperative services are in-
   cluded.

13. Inspection—Marketing assistance. In-
   spection services! provided by the Fed-
   eral Grain Inspection  Service, the Food
   Safety Inspection Service, and the Pack-
   ers and Stockyards Administration are
   included in these estimates.
14. Processing and Marketing—Marketing
   assistance. Activities of the Agricultural
   Marketing Service, Office of Transporta-
   tion, and the Foreign Agricultural Service
   are included.
15. Storage—Marketing assistance. Partici-
   pating producers may place their grain
   in a long term loan program. Producers
   receive annual storage payments to help
  , defer costs of storing grain.
                                      A-10

-------
16. Farm Storage Facility—Infrastructure
 ,  Support. The Farm Storage Facility Loan
   Program provides funds to construction
   of on'farm .storage facilities at below
   market, rates of interest.

17. Land Improvements—Infrastructure
   support. SCS, and ASCS, conservation
 •  programs are included.

18. Research—Infrastructure Support. Ac-
   tivities of the ASCS, ARS, ERS, and NASS
   •are included.           '  ;    ,-

19. State Programs—Regional Support.
   State governments provide support to
   agriculture through expenditure of-funds
   for research, extension, information ser-
  • vices, and marketing and inspection ser-
   , vices.

20. Taxation—Economy wide policy. Sub-
   sidy provided  by special provisions of
   Federal income tax laws allowing cash
   accounting, current, deduction of cost
   incurred in developing assets, and gains
   from certain assets, in a more lenient way.
                                   '   A-ll

-------
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          IU
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          I
          £
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                      •8
                  -££*-*
                   to to 10 vo u;
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                                                              CO CO CO r-   CO
                            1111 a 11 s.s a £
                            t- (\» co
                                                                                  10
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                                                                                  -8
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                                                                                  5
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                                                                        1





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                                                                        .§

                                                                        tJ

                                                                        
-------
                                  SECTION A-4

            ESTIMATION OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT TRANSFER PAYMENTS
 Estimating Procedure:
            j  '' •   •         -         •         '•''',.-
 Step 1. Calculate Total Subsidies (direct and      "
       indirect) for each agricultural sector       "  ported in U.S. Cencus of Agriculture
       as shown in Table A-3 using infor-    -  .   by the results of Step 5 to get Row 2,
       mation from ERS-Producer Subsidy         Direct Transfer Payments f.-w Sec-
    :   Equivalencies, Table 2 ,which in-         tionA-1 of this Appendix). .
       eludes aggregate producer subsidy        .                     .          .
     .  equivalencies for twelve commodity  Step 8. Multiply Value of Goods Sold as re-
       groupings for years 1982^-1992.             ported in U.S. Cencus of Agriculture
                                 '-•'-.''       by the results of Step 5 to get Row 9
 Step 2. Calculate Value of Direct Transfers         Indirect Transfer Paympnf-s I^PP Sec-
       For each commodity/sector aggre-         tion A-l of this Attachment),
       gate all policy transfers categorized
       as "income support payments."
                                         Data Sources:
.Step 3. Calculate Indirect Transfer Pay-  Estimates of Producer & Consumer Subsidy
       "tents. For each sector aggregate all  Equivalents: Government Intervention in Ag-
       applicab'le transfer payments for  riculture 1982-1987',A.Webb,M.Lopez&R.
       each commodity/sector, excluding  Penn.USD A, ERS,
       those categorized as "Income Sup-              •
       port Payments." .                  Producer Subsidy Equivalencies for U.S.  Agri-
                                         culture, (Tables provided by USD A,  ERS,
 Step 4. Calculate Indirect Transfer Pay-  July, 1994).
       ments as a percentage of Total Trans-  Background
       fer Payments for crops and livestock    ,
       (for crops =  74%, for livestock =    .             .       •             "
       100%).      .        '                   :                            '

 Step 5. Calculate Direct Transfer Payments               "''•..    '
       received as a percentage of total
       value of agricultural production for
       each commodity/sector..      :
       (Data from ERS, Table 1)             -

 Step 6, Calculate Indirect Transfer Pay-             -
       ments received as a percentage of to-
                        *       cj-                   _         ,   ,
       tal value of agricultural production  .
       for each commodity/sector.                        -  ;'   \
       (Data from ERS, Table 1)
 -- '                          -                    '        ,            - '       ^^-
 Step 7. Multiply Value of Goods Sold as re-                 :   .


       •     •     '         •       . "  .•   A-13  •   .  .''.,.:"-     '•-'"'

-------
                                 SECTION A-5

                      CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCE
   State economic data reported in the Cen-
sus of Business, Census of Manufacturing,
and Census of Agriculture and correspond-
ing county data contain estimates of gross
capital formation by sector, but do not re-
port what portion of this spending repre-
sents net capital formation (new invest-
ments) and what portion reflects spending
to replace worn out or obsolete capital. In
order to estimate net capital formation and
the annual cost of capital depletion for built
capital (structures and equipment), we used
the rate of capital depreciation for U.S. ag-
riculture as reported by USDA.

Calculation of Capital Depreciation by
Flood Plain Reach

Step 1. Using state financial summaries
       from  Farm  Economic Indicators,
       1982-1992, Table 4, add capital de-
       preciation in agriculture for all states
       within each reach.

Step 2. Using the same financial summaries,
       subtract Contract and Hired Labor
       Expenses from Total Production Ex-
       penses for agriculture to determine
       Cost of Goods Used in agricultural
       production for each state.

Step 3. Sum Cost of Goods Used in agricul-
       tural production for all states within
       each reach.

Step 4. Divide total capital consumption for
       each reach (Step 1) by Cost of Goods
       Used for each reach (Step 3) to esti-
       mate capital consumption as  a per-
       centage of Cost of Goods Used.

Step 5. Multiply Row 4, Cost of Goods of
     i  Used by sector, by region, by the re-
   .  I  suits of Step 4 to estimate Row 6 Net
     '  Capital Depreciation for each sector
     1  in each reach.
    . |  •              .

Calculation of Capital Depreciation by
Study Area and UMR Watershed,

Step 1. Using state financial summaries'
     I  from Farm Economic Indicators,
     I  198E2-1992. Table 4. add Capital De-
       preciation in agriculture for all.states
       within the region.
Step 2,
Step 3
Using the same financial summaries,
subtract Contract and Hired Labor
Expenses from Total Production Ex-
penses to determine Cost of Goods
Used in production for each region.

Sum Cost of Goods Used in agri-
culture for all states within each re-
gion. •
Step 4. Divide total capital consumption for
       each region (Step 1) by Cost of
       Goods Used for each region (Step 3)
       to estimate capital consumption as
       a percentage of Cost of Goods Used.

Step !5. Multiply Row  4, Cost of Goods of
       Used, by the results of Step 4 to es-
       timate Row 6
       ciation for each sector in each region.
Data Source: Economic Indicators of the
Farm Sectors State Financial Summary,
1992. USDA. ERS.
                                       A-14

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                                   SECTION A-6

                             SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS
General Limitations

(1) Estimates of income received and income
    generated, although based on published
    and generally accepted data, are affected
    by the level of sector aggregation used
    in the analysis and in some cases rest oh
    generalizations and assumptions that re-
   1 quire further research. •  •

(2) Estimates of income are provided for a
    single year, 1991, which may not reflect
    typical income received and generated
   over longer time periods,

.(3)" Estimates are provided for sectors that
    do not consist of identical farm opera-
    tions—some operating units within a
    sector may generate or receive more or
    less income than others.

(4) Income estimates are not adjusted to re-
    flect federal,construction costs for navi-
    gation and flood control structures along
    the Mississippi (with the exception of
    some portion of costs at the recently com-
 .   pleted renovations of Lock/Dam #26).
   This understates costs and overstates
    income generated for some sectors.

(5) Income estimates do not reflect the net
    economic costs associated with the ad-
    verse impacts of agricultural production
    on stocks of natural capital inside and
    outside the region. This .understates costs
    and overstates income generated for
    some sectors.

Sub-County Economic Data

    We worked primarily with county-level
economic accounts'. .These were sufficient for
analyses at the Watershed level thatrequired
 addition across many counties in the five
 state Study Area,  The UMR flood plain ar-
 eas, however, consist of parts of 54 counties
 located adjacent to the UMR. As the study
 progressed, refinements to county level data
 to distinguish between agricultural activi-
 ties inside and outside the flood plain took
 place in three stages. First, we used the over-
 all level of economic activity for agricultural
 sectors in counties adjacent 'to the UMR to
 reflect the level of economic activity within
 the flood plain; since not all agricultural ac-
 tivity in each county is located in the flood
 plain, this clearly over-stated the economic
 importance of flood plain agriculture.; We
 then tried  to refine our estimates using
 EARTHSAT data to characterize bip-physi-.
 cal features and land-use  patterns within
 each county. This allowed  us to determine
 the percentage; of the total agricultural area
 within each county that was inside and out-.
 side the natural flood plain; but could not
 provide adequate information for us to dis-
 tinguish between different types of agricul-
 ture. As a result, EARTHSAT data could be
 used to adjust accounts only by making the
 assumption that for each agricultural sector'
' within each county the percentage distribu-
 tion of production and income generated in-
 side and outside the flood plain was the
 same. Finally, we contracted researchers at
 Iowa State University  to  analyze state,
 county, and sub-county agricultural records ;
 to determine what percentage of agricultural
 production by each sector in each county
 was located on and off the flood plain.-In
 the final analysis, we used these estimates
 to generate economic accounts for flood
 plain agriculture.-(Interested readers can
 contact the authors for technical details.) ,
                                       A-15

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Navigation Costs

   Annual operating and maintenance costs
for the UMR navigation system were esti-
mated for 1991 and used to develop a dollar
cost per ton of cargo shipped. Costs were
then allocated by sector and by region based
on estimated tonnage of agricultural inputs
and products shipped on the UMR river. Al-
locations were made by researchers at the
University of Iowa using agricultural data-
bases for each region. (Interested readers can
contact the authors for technical details.)
Flood Protection Costs

   Despite  the significant federal inter-
agency effort to evaluate flood control efforts
in the UMR region in the aftermath of the
1993 floods, we were unable to obtain even
basic economic data on federal flood pro-
tection costs in the region. As  a result, we
were forced to ignore this aspect of federal
spending. (Interested readers can contact the
authors for details about contacts made, in-
formation received, and our conclusions
about what  might be done to  improve in-
formation in this area.)
                                       A.-16

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                                  APPENDIX B

                     ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCE ACCOUNTS
    The attached tables present the structure     We are currently collecting and organiz-
 of the environmental resource accounting  'ing data,to "fill in the blanks" of this proto-
 framework in summary form.  Table Bl  type natural resource accounting system.
 shows the socio-economic values and eco-  Full  implementation of the accounting
 logical functions that"we use to examine the  .scheme will involve development of data
 significance of environmental assets.  Table  management tools allowing examination of
 B2 shows a preliminary list of assets, based  geographical and functional relationships
 on data available for pool 13, near Clinton,  among assets.  We will pursue full imple-
 lowa. Table Bl therefore represents the col-  mentation of this accounting scheme as,
 umns of the accounting scheme, while table  funding becomes available. Only with sig-
 B2 represents the asset accounts, or rows.,  nificantly more advanced data management
 Table B2 also includes brief indications of  tools, includingGIS capabilities, are environ-
 the type of data that are likely to be most  mental accounting procedures likely to be-
 valuable for constructing the final biophysi-  come fully operational.
 cal accounts.   ,                   ,         . ;  -               .      .

    We have focused this accounting effort                                 "       •
 on Pool 13 because it is the location  of an
 ongoing research and monitoring effort un-                 t               ;       •
 der the auspices of the Upper Mississippi
 River System Environmental Management                       .          .
 Program's Long Term Resource Monitoring      '         .   '   ,  .               ,
 Program. Thus the pool  is well character-
 ized, and a variety of relevant ecological data '                            '
 already exist.                       .

    To reduce the length  of the tables, we              -...'•         ' .,  .
 have, in some cases listed categories of as-              J        ...
.sets, rather than.individual assets.  For ex- .
 ample, we have not listed every example                                         ,
• within pool 3.3 of a secondary river channel
 or every example of a forested wetland. In-                               ,
 stead, we have shown accounts for types of    ;    .      .                 .    .
 "Secondary River  Channels."In a  fully    '        ._           '        .   \
 implemented environmental accounting
 system, such a simple approach to aggrega-
 tion may be inappropriate for some assets.     "                   •
                                      B-l

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Figure  B1

Examples
Market
Value of
mussel
shells

Socio-Economic Values
Use '
Non-Market
Recreation, transport,
water supply
' | No
\.
Exist.
Sejise of
plaice
nuse
Bequest
Wish to instill
in kids a sense
of the river
Ecological Functions

Physiochemical
Conditions
Water quality
Water, nutrient
and sediment
transport
Nutrient,
sediment, carbon
transport
Trophic Base
1° and 2°
production
Growth and
transport of
detritus,
plankton
Organic matter
transport to
estuarine food
webs
Habitat Struct.
Shelter for small
fish
Corridor
function,
remnant habitats
Migration route


Temporal
Variation
Annual and
diurnal cycles,
disturbance
Timing, •
severity of
floods, erosion,
disturbance
Variation flow
of nutrients to
Guilf
Divers.
Genetic
and
species
diversity
Species
and
habitat
diversity
Habitat
diversity

Scale

Pool or
Habitat
UMR
Continent
or Globe
    B-2

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                               Figure  B2
   Account
 Categories
Accounts
                           Data  Examples
rtign uraer or Direct Environmental Assets
      Subsoil Assets
                         Minerals
                         Gravel and'Sand
                      Market prices, remaining reserves
      Harvested (Wild) Plants
               '        ,  Timber  •
                         Pulpwood
                         Medicinal/Other
                      Acres, board feet, stand index

                      Abundance, distribution   . •
      Animals
                   Game Animals
                         Deer
                         Rabbit ,
                         Squirrel
                   Fur Bearers
                         Raccoon
                         Muskrat
                         Beaver'
                         Mink
                   Waterfowl      ,

                         Mallards
                         Wood Duck
                         Gadwall
                         Green wing Teal
                         Blue Wing Teal
                         Widgeon
                         Canada  Geese
                    .     Ringneck Duck
                         Scaup
                         Black Duck
                         Read Head .
                         Canyasbacks
                   Game Birds
                         Pheasant
                         Woodcock
                         Quail
                         Turkey
                      Populations, health, distribution
                      Breeding, migrating populations,
                      harvests, distributions
                      Populations, health
                                   B-3

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Fiqure B2 cont.
Fish
Bluegill
Largemouth Bass
Black Crappie
Channel Catfish
White Crappie
Sauger
Fresh Water Drum
Walleye
White Bass
Yellow Bullhead
Carp
Black Bullhead
Paddiefish
Bigmouth Buffalo
Carp Sucker
Other Harvests
Unionid Mussels .
. "Watchable" Wildlife
. ' . '
Blue Herons
Hawks
Other Migratory Birds
etc.
Intermediate and Low Order Assets
Species
Endangered/Threatened Species (1)
Bald Eagle
Higgins Eye Pearly Mussel
Other Mussels?
Iowa Pleistocene Snail
Indiana Bat
Eastern Prairie Fringed Orchid
Western Prairie Fringed
• Orchid
Northern Monkshood
Prairie Bush CJover
Endemic Species
Higgins Eye Pearly Mussel
Iowa Pleistocene Snail
Populations, harvests, health . •






.









Area of beds, harvest
Populations, distributions, co-
distribution with recreation sites






Populations, viability assessments

. • • . •



•




Distribution, vulnerability of habitat
:' •

B-4

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Figure 82 cont.
              Species of Ecological Significance
                            Fingernail Clam
                            Water Celery (Valisineria)
                            Mayflies (Hexageniasp.)
                            Small Forage Fish
                            Forest Interior Birds
                         -   Native Pollenators
                            Stream Insect Communities,
                            Natural Enemies of Pests
                            Micorhizal fungi
                            Terrestrial Decomposers
                            etc.                •
 Abundance, Distribution, Trends
              Exotic Species of Concern
                            Zebra Mussel
                            Carp
                            Purple Loosestrife
                            Water'millefoil
Abundance, costs of control
       Specific Habitat Requirements For Desired Species (1
              Terrestrial
                            Eagle Roost Sites
                               (Cottonwood)
                            Heron Rookery Sites
                               (Sycamore)
                            etc.
Number, location, distance to water
              Mixed Terrestrial/Aquatic
                           Wood Duck Recruitment.
                           Canada Goose Recruitment
                           etc.
Shallow water, larger trees
             Aquatic
                           Centrarchid Overwintering
                           Diving Duck Fall Migration
                           Mussels
                           Walleye and Sauger,
                               Recruitment
                           Walleye and Sauger, Adults
                           etc.
Deep aquatic, low flow, high dxygen
                                       B-5

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Figure B2 cont.
       Habitats/Lands/Waters
              Terrestrial
                     Developed
                            Industrial Lands
                            Commercial Lands
                            Low Density Residential
                            Medium Density  Residential
                            High Density Residential
                            Other Developed Lands
                     Forest
                                            ,  ,
                            Upland Forest
                            Silver Maple Forest
                            Cottonwood Forest
                            Green Ash Forest
                     Agriculture

                            Dairy
                            Beef Cattle
                            Hogs
                            Other Livestock
                            Food Grain
                            Feed Grains
                            Oil Bearing Crops
                            Other Crops
Property values, percent impervious
surfaces
Local pollutant problems

Percent on sewer vs septic
Area, species composition, proximity
to river, patch size
Productivity, soil type, slope, soil
quality, nutrient application rates
              Wetlands (2)
                     Floodplain
                            Forested
                            Scrub/Shrub
                            Emergent
Area, percent supporting designated
uses, level of wetland functions
                     Other
                            Forested
                            Scrub/Shrub
                            Emergent
                                        B-6

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Figure B2 cont.
              Aquatic (3)
                    .Main Channel    :
                            Navigation Channel
                            Sandbar
                       /    Tail waters
                    '  *'  .  ' Channel Borders  /
                     Secondary Channel
                            Navigation Channel
                            Sandbar  '        -   . .. '
                            Channel Borders
                            Tailwaters
                     Other Channels
                            Tertiary Chanels
                            Tributary Channel
                     Backwaters
                            Contiguous Floodplain Lakes
                            Contiguous Shallow Aquatic
                               Areas
                            Contiguous Impounded
                            Isolated  Floodplain Lakes
                            Isolated  Shallow Aquatic
                               Areas
                     Outside Floodplain
                            Tributary streams and rivers
                            Natural Ponds and Lakes
                            Artificialponds
                            Reservoirs
Area, percent of flpodplain, cliem.
and bio!, water quality    ,
       Ecological Systems
              Landscapes
                     Wetland-Dominated
                            In UMR Floodplain .
                            Outside of Floodplain
                     Forested
                            In UMR Floodplain
                            Outside of Floodplain
                     Agricultural


                            In UMR Floodplain
                            Outside of Floodplain
                     Developed


                            Sabulia, Iowa
                            Savanah, Illinois
                            Savanah Depot Mil. Res.
Percent wetland, degree of
interconnection among  habitats,
successions characteristics
Average patch size, degree of
connectedness, proportion of edge
versus interior habitat
Extent and connectedness of non-
agricultural lands, Diversity of crops,
percent monoculture
Human population, percent
forestland, percent parkland,*
abundance of .suburban birds
                                     , --.B-7

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Figure B2 cont.
Bellevue, Iowa .
• Thompson, Illinois :
. Watersheds .
UMR Above Pool 13


Illinois .
Apple River Watershed

Rush Creek Watershed
Plum River Watershed
Iowa
Mill Creek Watershed
Duck Creek Watershed
Pleasant Creek Watershed
Maquoketa River Watershed
Smith Creek Watershed
. Beaver Creek Watershed
Elk River Watershed
Silver Creek Watershed
Deer Creek Watershed



Aggregate land use data, chemical
water quality, biotic integrity and
biodiversity of pools 12 and 13

Biotic integrity, chemical water quality,
landscape metrics












Floodplain and Aquatic/Terrestrial Transition Zone
Flyways Mississippi Flyway


Migratory bird abundance, continuity
of habitat, availability of nesting,
bverwinterinq habitat
   (1)  Includes Federally listed endangered and threatened species only.

   (2)  Based on Cowardin, L.M.. V. Carter, F.C. Golet, and E.T. LaRoe. 1979. Classification
       of Wetlands and Deepwater Habitats of the United States. FWS/OBS-79/31 U.S. Fish
       And 'Wildlife  Service,  Washington,   D.C.  Alternative  classifications  based  on
       geomorphic criteria are possible (e.g., Brinson,  M.M. 1993.  A Hydrogeomorphic
       Classification for Wetlands.  U.S.  Army  Coirps of Engineers  Wetlands  Research
       Program Technical Report  WRP-DE-4.U.S.  Army  Corps of Engineers, Washington,
       D.C.).        .     .          _•';.._

   (3)  Aquatic  habitat  classification based   on  Wilcox, D.  1993.   An  Aquatic  Habitat
       Classification System For the Upper Mississippi River System.  U.S.  Fish and Wildlife
       Service, Environmental Management Technical Center, Onalaska, Wisconsin.
                                         B-8

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