United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Policy
(2111)
EPA 236-F-98-007CC
September 1998
Climate Change And West Virginia
The earth's climate is predicted to change because human
activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere
through the buildup of greenhouse gases — primarily carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. The
heat-trapping property of these greenhouse gases is undisputed.
Although there is uncertainty about exactly how and when the
earth's climate will respond to enhanced concentrations of
greenhouse gases, observations indicate that detectable changes
are underway. There most likely will be increases in temperature
and changes in precipitation, soil moisture, and sea level, which
could have adverse effects on many ecological systems, as well
as on human health and the economy.
The Climate System
Energy from the sun drives the earth's weather and climate.
Atmospheric greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide,
and other gases) trap some of the energy from the sun, creating
a natural "greenhouse effect." Without this effect, temperatures
would be much lower than they are now, and life as known today
would not be possible. Instead, thanks to greenhouse gases, the
earth's average temperature is a more hospitable 60°F. However,
problems arise when the greenhouse effect is enhanced by
human-generated emissions of greenhouse gases.
Global warming would do more than add a few degrees to today's
average temperatures. Cold spells still would occur in winter, but
heat waves would be more common. Some places would be drier,
others wetter. Perhaps more important, more precipitation may
come in short, intense bursts (e.g., more than 2 inches of rain
in a day), which could lead to more flooding. Sea levels would
be higher than they would have been without global warming,
although the actual changes may vary from place to place
because coastal lands are themselves sinking or rising.
The Greenhouse Effect
*
Solar
radiation
passes
through
the clear
atmosphere
Some solar radiation
is reflected by the
earth and the
atmosphere
Some of the infrared radiation passes
through the atmosphere, and some is
absorbed and re-emitted in all directions
by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect
of this is to warm the earth's surface and
the lower atmosphere.
Source: U.S. Department of State (1992)
Emissions Of Greenhouse Gases
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, human activities
have been adding measurably to natural background levels of
greenhouse gases. The burning of fossil fuels — coal, oil, and
natural gas — for energy is the primary source of emissions.
Energy burned to run cars and trucks, heat homes and busi-
nesses, and power factories is responsible for about 80% of
global carbon dioxide emissions, about 25% of U. S. methane
emissions, and about 20% of global nitrous oxide emissions.
Increased agriculture and deforestation, landfills, and industrial
production and mining also contribute a significant share of
emissions. In 1994, the United States emitted about one-fifth of
total global greenhouse gases.
Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases
Since the pre-industrial era, atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide have increased nearly 30%, methane concentrations have
more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations have risen
by about 15%. These increases have enhanced the heat-trapping
capability of the earth's atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols, a common
air pollutant, cool the atmosphere by reflecting incoming solar
radiation. However, sulfates are short-lived and vary regionally,
so they do not offset greenhouse gas warming.
Although many greenhouse gases already are present in the
atmosphere, oceans, and vegetation, their concentrations in the
future will depend in part on present and future emissions.
Estimating future emissions is difficult, because they will depend
on demographic, economic, technological, policy, and institu-
tional developments. Several emissions scenarios have been
developed based on differing projections of these underlying
factors. Forexample, by 2100, in the absence of emissions control
policies, carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to be 30-
150% higher than today's levels.
Current Climatic Changes
Global mean surface temperatures have increased 0.6-1.2°F
between 1890 and 1996. The 9 warmestyears in this century all
have occurred in the last 14 years. Of these, 1995 was the warmest
year on record, suggesting the atmosphere has rebounded from
the temporary cooling caused by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in
the Philippines.
Several pieces of additional evidence consistent with warming,
such as a decrease in Northern Hemisphere snow cover, a
decrease in Arctic Sea ice, and continued melting of alpine
glaciers, have been corroborated. Globally, sea levels have risen
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Global Temperature Changes (1861-1996)
Year
Source: IPCC (1995), updated
4-10 inches over the past century, and precipitation over land has
increased slightly. The frequency of extreme rainfall events also
has increased throughout much of the United States.
A new international scientific assessment by the Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change recently concluded that "the
balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
on global climate."
Future Climatic Changes
For a given concentration of greenhouse gases, the resulting
increase in the atmosphere's heat-trapping ability can be pre-
dicted with precision, but the resulting impact on climate is more
uncertain. The climate system is complex and dynamic, with
constant interaction between the atmosphere, land, ice, and
oceans. Further, humans have never experienced such a rapid rise
in greenhouse gases. In effect, a large and uncontrolled planet-
wide experiment is being conducted.
General circulation models are complex computer simulations that
describe the circulation of air and ocean currents and how energy
is transported within the climate system. While uncertainties
remain, these models are a powerful tool for studying climate. As
a result of continuous model improvements over the last few
decades, scientists are reasonably confident about the link
between global greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature
and about the ability of models to characterize future climate at
continental scales.
Recent model calculations suggest that the global surface temper-
ature could increase an average of 1.6-6.3°F by 2100, with signif-
icant regional variation. These temperature changes would be far
greater than recent natural fluctuations, and they would occur
significantly faster than any known changes in the last 10,000
years. The United States is projected to warm more than the
global average, especially as fewer sulfate aerosols are produced.
The models suggest that the rate of evaporation will increase as
the climate warms, which will increase average global precipita-
tion. They also suggest increased frequency of intense rainfall as
well as a marked decrease in soil moisture over some mid-
continental regions during the summer. Sea level is projected to
increase by 6-38 inchesby 2100.
Calculations of regional climate change are much less reliable
than global ones, and it is unclear whether regional climate will
become more variable. The frequency and intensity of some
extreme weather of critical importance to ecological systems
(droughts, floods, frosts, cloudiness, the frequency of hot or cold
spells, and the intensity of associated fire and pest outbreaks)
could increase.
Local Climate Changes
Over the last century, the average temperature in Charleston.
West Virginia, has increased 1.1°F, and precipitation has in-
creased by up to 10% in many parts of the state. These past
trends may or may not continue into the future.
Over the next century, climate in West Virginia may change
even more. For example, based on projections made by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and results from
the United Kingdom Hadley Centre's climate model (HadCM2), a
model that accounts for both greenhouse gases and aerosols, by
2100 temperatures in West Virginia could increase by 3 °F in
winter, spring, and summer (with a range of 1-6°F) and 4°F in fall
(with a range of 2-7°F). Precipitation is estimated to increase by
20% (with a range of 10-30%) in all seasons, slightly more in
summer. Other climate models may show different results.
especially regarding estimated changes in precipitation. The
impacts described in the sections that follow take into account
estimates from different models. The frequency of extreme hot
days in summer would increase because of the general warming
trend. It is not clear how the severity of storms might be affected.
although an increase in the frequency and intensity of summer
thunderstorms is possible.
Precipitation Trends From 1900 To Present
Trends/100 years
+20%
+10% £
+5% •
-5% O
-10% O
-20%
Source: Karl et al. (1996)
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Human Health
Higher temperatures and increased frequency of heat waves may
increase the number of heat-related deaths and the incidence of
heat-related illnesses. The elderly, particularly those living alone.
are at greatest risk. These effects have been studied only for
populations living in urban areas; however, even those in rural
areas may be susceptible.
Climate change could increase concentrations of ground-level
ozone. For example, high temperatures, strong sunlight, and
stable air masses tend to increase urban ozone levels. Although
West Virginia is in compliance with current air quality standards.
increased temperatures could make remaining in compliance more
difficult. Ground-level ozone is associated with respiratory
illnesses such as asthma, reduced lung function, and respiratory
inflammation. Air pollution also is made worse by increases in
natural hydrocarbon emissions such as emissions of terpenes by
trees and shrubs during hot weather. If a warmed climate causes
increased use of air conditioners, air pollutant emissions from
power plants also will increase.
Warming and other climate changes could expand the habitat
and infectivity of disease-carrying insects, thus increasing the
potential for transmission of diseases such as malaria and
dengue ("break bone") fever. Warmer temperatures could increase
the incidence of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases in
West Virginia, because populations of ticks, and their rodent
hosts, could increase under warmer temperatures and increased
vegetation.
Infected individuals can bring malaria to places where it does
not occur naturally. Also, some mosquitoes in West Virginia can
carry malaria, and others can carry California encephalitis, which
can be lethal or cause neurological damage. If conditions become
warmer and wetter, mosquito populations could increase, thus
increasing the potential for transmission if these diseases are
introduced into the area. Increased runoff from heavy rainfall
could increase water-borne diseases such as giardia, crypto-
sporidia, and viral and bacterial gastroenteritides. Developed
countries such as the United States should be able to minimize
the impacts of these diseases through existing disease prevention
and control methods.
Water Resources
Surface water is the principal source of water for public supply
and industrial uses in West Virginia. Groundwater provides water
for almost one-half of the population and nearly all the rural
domestic supplies. Major rivers in the state include the
Monongahela, Little Kanawha, Kanawha, Guyandotte, and Big
Sandy rivers. These rivers drain into the Ohio River, which forms
the boundary between Ohio and West Virginia. Rivers in the
Eastern Panhandle region drain into the Potomac River. The
topography of West Virginia is rugged, and many of the rivers in
the state are influenced by winter snow accumulation and spring
snowmelt. A warmer climate would lead to an earlier spring
snowmelt, resulting in higher streamflows in winter and spring.
Lower streamflows and lake levels in the summer and fall could
affect the dependability of surface water supplies, particularly
since many of the streams in West Virginia have low flows in the
summer. The growing tourism and recreation industries such as
Whitewater rafting also could be affected by lower summer
streamflows. Groundwater sources also could be reduced by
lower spring and summer recharge. Lower summer streamflows
and warmer temperatures could affect water quality by concen-
trating pollutant levels. This could exacerbate existing problems
with acid drainage from coal mines, high concentrations of fecal
coliform bacteria, and industrial pollution from the manufacturing
plants along the floodplains of the Ohio and Kanawha rivers.
Increases in rainfall could mitigate these effects. Higher rainfall.
however, could contribute to increased flooding. Most homes
and businesses in West Virginia are built on flat, narrow valley
floors and are susceptible to flooding. More rain also could
increase erosion and exacerbate pollution in runoff areas devoted
to manufacturing, coal mining, and oil and gas extraction.
Agriculture
The mix of crop and livestock production in a state is influenced
by climatic conditions and water availability. As climate warms.
production patterns could shift northward. Increases in climate
variability could make adaptation by farmers more difficult.
Warmer climates and less soil moisture due to increased evapora-
tion may increase the need for irrigation. However, these same
conditions could decrease water supplies, which also may be
needed by natural ecosystems, urban populations, industry, and
other users.
Understandably, most studies have not fully accounted for
changes in climate variability, water availability, crop pests.
changes in air pollution such as ozone, and adaptation by farmers
to changing climate. Including these factors could change
modeling results substantially. Analyses that assume changes
in average climate and effective adaptation by farmers suggest
that aggregate U.S. food production would not be harmed,
although there may be significant regional changes.
Changes In Agricultural Yield And Production
Dryland Yield Production
30
CD 20
CD
C
6
10
• AT = 8°F; Aprecip. = 5% • AT = 9°F; Aprecip. = 11%
Sources: Mendelsohn and Neumann (in press); McCarl (per-
sonal communication)
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In West Virginia, production agriculture is a $400 million
annual industry, three-fourths of which comes from livestock.
mainly cattle and poultry. Very few of the farmed acres are
irrigated. The major crop in the state is hay. Hay yields could
increase by about 30% as a result of climate change, leading to
changes in acres farmed and production. Farmed acres could
remain constant or could decrease by as much as 30% in re-
sponse to changes in prices, for example, possible decreases in
hay prices. Livestock and dairy production may not be affected.
unless summer temperatures rise significantly and conditions
become significantly drier. Under these conditions, livestock tend
to gain less weight and pasture yields decline, limiting forage.
Forests
Trees and forests are adapted to specific climate conditions.
and as climate warms, forests will change. These changes could
include changes in species composition, geographic range, and
health and productivity. If conditions also become drier, the
current range of forests could be reduced and replaced by
grasslands and pasture. Even a warmer and wetter climate could
lead to changes; trees that are better adapted to warmer condi-
tions, such as oaks and pines, would prevail. Under these
conditions, forests could become more dense. These changes
could occur during the lifetimes of today's children, particularly if
the change is accelerated by other stresses such as fire, pests,
and diseases. Some of these stresses would themselves be
worsened by a warmer and drier climate.
With changes in climate, the extent of forested areas in West
Virginia could change little or decline by as much as 5-10%.
However, the types of trees dominating those forests and
woodlands are likely to change. Forested areas could be increas-
ingly dominated by pine and scrub oaks, replacing many of the
eastern hardwoods common throughout West Virginia. In areas
where richer soils are prevalent, southern pines could increase
their range and density, and in areas with poorer soils, which are
more common in West Virginia's forests, scrub oaks of little
commercial value (e.g., post oak and blackjack oak) could increase
their range. As a result, the character of forests in West Virginia
could change. Climate change also could affect the success of
tree plantings to stabilize open-face mining sites.
Ecosystems
The state of West Virginia is 97% forested, and much of this
cover is in high-elevation areas. These areas contain some of the
last remaining stands of red spruce, which are seriously threat-
ened by acid rain and could be further stressed by changing
climate. These forests provide habitat for many plants and
animals, including the varying hare, red squirrel, the endangered
Virginia northern flying squirrel, and the threatened Cheat
Mountain salamander. Whereas species of lower elevations at
least have the potential to move upward in response to warming
temperatures, those in high elevation areas do not. Given a
sufficient change in climate, these spruce forests could be
substantially reduced, or could disappear.
Monongahela National Forest
The Monongahela National Forest has over 900,000 acres of
public land, which include the North and South Laurel Forks
Wilderness, the Dolly Sods Wilderness, Otter Creek, and the
Cranberry Wilderness. This scenic forest supports a rich
variety of plant and animal life. The forest, a popular
destination, has over one million visitor days of sightseeing
and recreational use each year. The Monongahela National
Forest contains maple, black cherry, birch, beech, and
yellow poplar. With elevations ranging from 2,600 to over
4,000 feet, the Dolly Sods Wilderness supports unique plant
communities similar to those of northern Canada. Sphagnum
bogs, red spruce, yellow birch, grassy sods, azaleas,
rhododendron, and mountain laurel can be found. White-
tailed deer, wild turkey, bobcat, and black bear are among
the wildlife found in the area. The headwaters of five river
systems, which support populations of beaver and
coldwater fish such as native trout, are found in the forest.
The forest's rare and unique flora and fauna could have
difficulty adapting to climate change. With few natural
corridors to allow species to migrate, it is possible that
species unique to the area could be significantly stressed
by climate and habitat changes.
West Virginia has the fourth highest number of caves (includ-
ing 3,300 limestone caves) in the nationand 11 of the world's
50 longest caves. At least eight species of bats, including two
that are federally endangered (Indiana bat and the Virginia big-
eared bat), use caves as winter hibernation roosts or to raise
young in the summer. One cave protects over 5,000 Indiana bats
each winter, and another contains the largest known concentra-
tion of hibernating Virginia big-eared bats as well as the largest
known maternity colony. Higher-than-normal winter temperatures
could boost temperatures inside cave bat roosting sites, which
has been shown to cause higher mortality due to increased winter
body weight loss in endangered Indiana bats (e.g., an increase
of 9°F during winter hibernation has been associated with a 42%
increase in the rate of body mass loss). The south branch cave
beetle is another endangered cave dweller.
Another unique West Virginia ecosystem is in the Ice Mountain
Preserve. In a small slope area there are 60 small holes and
openings at the base of a rock talus whose vents blow 38°F air
year round. As a result, high elevation boreal plants group
around the cold air vents, where ice can be seen well into May.
The effects of gradually warming temperatures are already
noticeable on Ice Mountain, and ice around the vents is disap-
pearing earlier in the year. This could adversely impact the boreal
plants found in this system.
For further information about the potential impacts of climate
change, contact the Climate and Policy Assessment Division
(2174), U.S. EPA, 401 M Street SW, Washington, DC 20460, or
visit http://www. epa.gov/globalwarming/impacts.
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