&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Science Advisory
Board (1400F)
EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004
May 1995
An SAB Report
Future Issues in
Environmental
Engineering
Report of Future Issues and
Challenges in Environmental
Engineering and
Technology by the
Environmental Engineering
Committee
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May 25,1995
EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004
Honorable Carol M. Browner
Administrator
US Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, S.W. y
Washington, DC 20460
Dear Ms. Browner:
Re: Environmental Engineering Futures Report
. initlati- ^ <* Environment P,
s perspective on emerging environmental ^^-^A^000^1 Pr°blems and Provide *e
request and formed the Environmental Futoes Commit f^ Exe™tlve Committee accepted the
requested the standing committees of theTls f> Ommittee
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tion?
Agency
development, commerce, and conservation.
use pressures?
Agency should strengthen its capability and ^"^^^^
entes of natural disasters ««^^SS2S^SS£d
''^^^^^^^^^^^^
and human health.
d) ^^^^^g^^^^SS^^^^^^-
addressboth ™^^JSfcStoSical capabilities that enable the EPA to fulfill its
current and future mis
ton: Tta Agency should
'S«
suggested methodology that it believes EPA
Lalyze futures issues. The methodology should
consist of lie following elements:
a) EPA should establish "lookout" pane,s involving experts within and outside the Agency.
b) Panelists should routinely scan their fields to provide observations about new or intensify
issues and their consequences.
c) EPA staff should collect these observations then refer them back to the other panelists for com-
ment.
d) Staff and panelists should select candidate issues using agreed-upon criteria.
e) EPA should analyze the selected issues in terms o, any existing scenarios and EPA goal state-
ments.
« EPA with input from panelists, should recommend near-term actions based on projected future,
The Committee also identified eight possib.e additional representative technological concerns regardmg
the future that warrant EPA attention:
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a) Fossil fuel depletion;
b) Major industrial accidents and/or terrorist activities;
c) Accelerating deterioration of urban infrastructure (e.g., pipelines for water, sewage, and fuels);
d) Extremely high cost benefit ratios of some environmental management strategies;
e) Recognition that environmentally contaminated reservoirs, such as contaminated sediments, may
pose greater risk than existing point discharges; I
f) Recognition that available technology for the control of some newly recognized pathogens in
drinking water may be inadequate;
g) Recognition that electromagnetic radiation from new sources may be a health threat;
h) Recognition that inappropriately deployed industrial ecology concepts can lead to increased
human and ecosystem exposures.
The SAB EEC appreciates the opportunity to scan the environmental future related to engineering and
looks forward to your reply to the resulting recommendations.
Sincerely,
trGenevifivg JR. 'Kf^osJo/Cfiair
Executive Committee
'Dr. Isfiwar P. Murarka, Chair
Environmental Engineering Committee
viiowileiilai futures Committee
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EPA-SAB-EEC-95-004
May 1995
An SAB Report
Future Issues in Environmental Engineering
Report on Future Issues and Challenges in
Environmental Engineering and Technology by the
Environmental Engineering Committee
Science Advisory Board
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC 20460
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Abstract
Th,s report ,s the response of the Environmental Engineering Committee (EEc" to that request"
competencies
'00kOUt Pane'Sl sustainabilitV' disasters, redevelopment of urban land,
core
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Notice
This report has been written as part of the activities of the Science Advisory Board la public
advisory group providing extramural scientific information and advice o the Adm.n.strator and
othX officials of the Environmental Protection Agency. The Board is structured to provide
balanced expert assessment of scientific matters related to problems facing the Agency. This
?Pnort has not been reviewed for approval by the Agency and, hence, the contents of this report
^SSJS^SSSSthe views and policies of the Environmental Protection Agency nor
Mother agencies in the Executive Branch of the Federal government, nor does mention of trade
names or commercial products constitute a recommendation for use.
Seven reports were produced from the Environmental Futures Project of the SAB. The
titles are listed below:
8)
9)
e the Future with
Environmental Futures Committee of the Science Advisory Board's Execute Committee.]
b) So^d^sues, Technical Annex to the
Horizon- Protecting the Future with Foresight," Prepared by the Environmental Futures
Committee of the Science Advisory Board's Executive Committee.]
C)
n Future Trends and Challenges,"
Water Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
.or a Dyna*
Ecological Processes and Effects Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
F*res issues-
mental Engineering Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
n
Research Planning," Prepared by the Indoor Air and Total Human Exposure Committee,
Science Advisory Board.]
and Challenges in the
with a Fcus Toward Future Institutional Readiness by the
Agency," Prepared by the Radiation Environmental Futures Subcommtttee of the Radiation
Advisory Committee, Science Advisory Board.]
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Science Advisory Board
Environmental Engineering Committee
Members and Consultants
ChaJ.rrmTf" p A/r . D . Dr. Wm. Randall Seeker.b Senior Vice President, Energy &
ur. isnwar F. Murarka, Business Development Manager, Environmental Research Corp., Irvine CA
Environmental and Vital Issues Business Unit, Electric Power
Research Institute, 3412 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto CA Walter M. Shaub,c President, CORRE, Inc., Reston, VA
Members
Dr. Linda M. Abriola, Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan Ann Ar-
bor, MI
Mr. Richard A. Conway, Senior Corporate Fellow Union Car-
bide Corporation, So. Charleston, WV
Dr. James H. Johnson, Jr., Professor and Chairman, Dept. of
Civil Engineering, Howard University, Washington, DC
Dr. Wayne M. Kachel, Director, Martin Marietta Corporation
Oak Ridge, TN
Dr. Jo Ann Lighty, Associate Professor, Department of Chemi-
cals and Fuels Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City,
Dr. James W. Mercer, President, GeoTrans, Inc., Sterling, VA
Dr. Frederick G. Pohland,a Weidlein Chair of Environmental
Engineering Department of Civil and Environmental Engineer-
ing, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
Dr. Robert B. Pojasek, Corporate Vice President/Environmen-
tal Programs, GEI Consultants, Inc., Winchester, MA
Consultants
Mr. Theodore J. Gordon,d Retired, 23 Sailfish Road, Vero
Beach, FL .
Dr. Hilary I. Inyang,6 President, Geoenvironmental Design Re-
search, Inc., Fairfax, VA
Mrs. Judith M. Mullins, Environmental and Energy Staff, Gen-
eral Motors Corporation, Detroit, MI
Ms. Lynne Preslo,6 R.G., Vice President, ICF Kaiser Engineer
Oakland, CA
Dr. C. Herb Ward, Foyt Family Chair of Engineering and
Director, Energy & Environmental Systems Institute, Rice Uni-
versity, Houston, TX
Designated Federal Officer
Mrs. Kathleen W. Conway, U.S. EPA, Science Advisory Board
401 M Street S.W., Washington, D.C.
Staff Secretary
Mrs. Dorothy M. Clark, U.S. EPA, Science Advisory Board
401 M Street S.W., Washington, D.C.
a author of Appendix C:
b author of Appendix D:
c author of Appendix A:
d author of Appendix E:
e co-author of Appendix B:
Transient Phenomena
Core Competency
Manufacturing Sustainability
Futures Methodology
Redevelopment of Industrial Sites and
F:emediated Land
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Contents
1 Executive Summary • • • 1
1.1 Background 1
1.1.1 Relevant Activities • 1
1.1.2 The Process Used • • •• .1
1.2 Summary of Findings for the Four Developed Issues ; 1
1.2.1 How Can EPA Actions Foster Environmental Quality 1
1 2.2 How Can EPA Best Respond to Increasing Societal Pressures for the
Redevelopment of Urban Industrial Sites and Remediated Land While
Serving Urban Needs for Environmental Protection? 2
1.2.3 How Can the Agency Prepare to Address Threats Posed to Human
Health and Natural Resources by Transient Phenomena of Natural
Origin in the Face of Increasing Population and Land Use Pressures? 2
1.2.4 How Can the Agency Address Insufficiency in the Core Technical
Competencies Needed to Address Both Existing and Future
Environmental Challenges? Core Competencies Can Be Defined as
the Essential and Distinct Scientific and Technical Capabilities that
Enable the EPA to Fulfill Its Current and Future Missions 2
1.3 Other Possible Scenarios • • -. • 3
1.4 Lessons Learned on Methodology • • •••••••3
2 Introduction , • »• 4
2.1 The Charge 4
2.2 Committee Process 4
2.3 Coordination • • 4
3 Output of the Process 5
3.1 Methodology • 5
3.1.1 "Expert Panel" Approach and "Brainstorming" 5
3.1.2 Narrowing the List of Issues •••• 5
3.1.3 Trends, Drivers, Scenarios, Consequences and Mitigation Analyses 5
3.1.4 Guidance • 6
3.2 Results 6
3.2.1 Issue #1: Environmental Protection and Manufacturing Sustainability 6
3.2.2 Issue 2: Redevelopment of Industrial Sites and Remediated Land 8
IV
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Contents (continued)
3.2.3 Issue 3: Transient Events
3.2.4 Issue 4: Core Competencies
3.3. A Futures Methodology Approach
3.3.1 Brainstorming and Criteria-based Selections 11
3.3.2 Selecting an Approach
3.3.3 A Candidate Futures Issues Analysis Approach | 12
3.3.4 Pilot Test of Issue Identification
4. Summary and Recommendations
• 14
4.1 Remarks Specific to Issues Analyzed
4.2 Other Findings...
14
4.3 General Remarks
14
5. References
R-1
Appendices
A Manufacturing Sustainability
B Redevelopment of Industrial Sites and Remediated Land B_1
C Transient Phenomena
""""" " , f\.1
D Core Competency
E . Futures Methodology
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Executive Summary
1.1 Background
1.1.1 Relevant Activities
In a July 16, 1993, memo to Administrator Browner, Mr.
David Gardiner, Assistant Administrator, Office of Policy Plan-
ning and Evaluation, requested that the Science Advisory Board
(SAB) assist in the continued development of EPA's capacity to
anticipate environmental problems, issues and opportunities.
The SAB accepted this request and established an SAB Com-
mittee, the Environmental Futures Committee (EFC), to under-
take this effort. The EFC was responsible for producing an
overall report. Each of the SAB standing committees were
invited to contribute in their areas of concern. The Environmen-
tal Engineering Committee (EEC) of the SAB accepted this
assignment and undertook the following charge:
a) develop a procedure for conducting scans of possible
future developments that will affect environmental
quality and the nation's ability to protect the environ-
ment;
b) identify important possible future developments;
c) select a limited number of possible future develop-
ments for in-depth examination;
d) draw implications for EPA and recommend actions for
addressing them.
This is an EEC consensus report. To stimulate ideas for the
report, individual authors prepared background papers on each
major issue discussed in the consensus portion of the EEC
report. The EEC incorporated some, but not all, material from
the appendices in this report.
1.1.2 The Process Used
The EEC used a multistep process, including:
a) Brainstorming by EEC members and consultants to
identify about 30 environmental issues related to tech-
nology development that could become increasingly
important in the next 5-30 years.
b) Selection of four important future environmental is-
sues for further discussion and writing:
1) the impact of EPA striving to balance environ-
mental protection and sustainable manufacturing;
2) societal pressures for the redevelopment of urban
industrial sites and remediated land;
3) threats posed to human health and natural re-
sources by transient phenomena of natural origin;
e.g., riverine floods; and
4) EPA core technical (scientific and engineering,
inclusive of research) competencies.
c) Examination of each of the four issues in terms of:
1) the current situation;
2) driving influences or trends;
3) future scenarios;
4) key findings, by scenario analyses; and
5) opportunities to mitigate consequences of adverse
scenario outcomes and encourage positive out-
comes.
The degree of analysis and assessment needed to rank the
issues was considered to be beyond the scope of this Committee
effort. However, the four issues selected were of sufficient
merit to meet the project objectives.
Concomitantly, the EEC developed an approach by which
EPA could regularly scan the horizon for similar emerging
issues. It then conducted a supplemental search for emerging
scenarios and identified several more examples.
1.2 Summary of Findings for the Four
Developed Issues
The following major findings for each of the four selected
issues are the basis for the Committee's recommendations to
EPA.
1.2.1 How Can EPA Actions Foster
Environmental Quality Protection
and Improvements While Assuring
Sustained Industrial Development in
an Increasingly Competitive
Manufacturing Economy?
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel-
opment (OECD) member nations increasingly employ a
negotiated compliance style of regulation that establishes
environmental targets and enables flexibility in how they
will be achieved. (Government Policy Options to Encour-
age Cleaner Productioiii and Products in the 1990s (OECD,
1992)). This approach may also promote opportunities
for source reduction in the U.S., encdurage development
of cleaner technologies, and may improve industrial com-
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petitiveness. Therefore, the EEC recommends that EPA
consider this approach in developing policy options con-
cerning clean technologies; options need to be carefully
constructed and balanced to benefit both the environment
and U.S. industrial competitiveness.
Increase in industrial production can increase wastes. Con-
tinued heavy reliance upon command and control, end-of-pipe
or specified regulatory compliance requirements on a single-
medium, single-point source basis can adversely impact the
development and deployment of the cleaner technologies. One
instance in which this can occur is when a facility wishes to
completely eliminate a point-source air emission by installing a
new process, but receives no emission credit for use elsewhere
in the facility for reducing emissions well below standards
required by regulations. Cleaner technologies are expected to
play a crucial role in achieving reductions in pollution sources.
Small- and medium-sized enterprises find it difficult to com-
pete, comply with regulatory requirements, and invest in the
development of cleaner technologies.
1.2.2 How Can EPA Best Respond to
Increasing Societal Pressures for
the Redevelopment of Urban
Industrial Sites and Remediated
Land While Serving Urban Needs for
Environmental Protection?
1.2.3 How Can the Agency Prepare to
Address Threats Posed to Human
Health and Natural Resources by
Transient Phenomena of Natural
Origin in the Face of Increasing
Population and Land Use
Pressures?
The scarcity and high cost of land in urban areas,
coupled with increasing urbanization of the U.S. popula-
tion, will increase the pressure to redevelop abandoned
industrial sites and remediated land. Therefore, the EEC
recommends EPA consider policies that encourage effi-
cient and timely redevelopment of such sites in an envi-
ronmentally responsible manner that prevent adverse
exposures. Such policies have the potential to improve the
quality of the urban environment, promote commerce,
and postpone or reduce development of other land re-
sources.
Many of the abandoned industrial sites and remediated
land, which are not used currently, will need to be redeveloped
for use by the growing population in metropolitan areas. Due to
perceived and/or real risks in using these lands, redevelopment
of these sites is not currently occurring at a pace appropriate for
future needs. There is a need to examine both the technical and
the policy issues so that redevelopment of these lands can be
achieved without adverse exposures to contaminants. EPA has
the opportunity to make a concerted effort to formulate policies
and develop technical support schemes for integrating site
redevelopment issues into current and future regulatory actions.
Transient phenomena, such as riverine floods, can
adversely affect the environment and public health much
more than do steady state situations. Changes in demog-
raphy likely will increase the number of people affected
by such phenomena. Associated planning can prepare
and minimize the potential adverse impacts on natural
resources and human health. Therefore, the EEC recom-
mends that EPA strengthen its capability and readiness to
address potential environmental consequences of natural
disasters associated with such transient phenomena and
assume a participatory role with other responsible agen-
cies.
In the absence of significant global climate change, there is
no evidence that the frequency of natural disasters will differ
significantly in the future from that of past occurrences. How-
ever, population growth, capital investment, and increased in-
tensity of land use and management in affected areas have led to
significantly increased potential for damage caused by natural
disasters.
Recent events, for example, hurricane damage and extreme
cold weather in the eastern seaboard states; earthquakes, wild-
fires and mudslides in western coastal regions; and unprec-
edented flooding in central and southeastern regions of the
country, all severely impacted human health and the environ-
ment. Given increasing intensity of land use and population
growth in susceptible areas, potential consequences could be
severe unless means to anticipate, prevent or mitigate the envi-
ronmental consequences of natural disasters are established. In
its review, the EEC found little evidence that the environmental
aspects of natural disaster events are being comprehensively
addressed in a prospective and coordinated manner.
1.2.4 How Can the Agency Address
Insufficiency in the Core Technical
Competencies Needed to Address
Both Existing and Future
Environmental Challenges? Core
Competencies Can Be Defined as
the Essential and Distinct Scientific
and Technical Capabilities that
Enable the EPA to Fulfill Its Current
and Future Missions.
Core competencies are the essential and distinct
scientific and technical capabilities that enable an orga-
nization to fulfill its current and future missions. In the
future, the Agency will be under increasing pressure to
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screes "%,efciently «***«8a pollutants from all
£m Ae"? ^ WUl be required to ™Pond
S/itf^T^ t0 br°ader en^onmental Lues
r/1 TP/ ™™rces. Therefore, the EEC recom-
mends EPA systematically identify its essential core com-
petenctes to do Ms WOrk and strengthen them Wh?re
Responding to legislative mandates is necessary but will
become increasingly difficult if maintenance and imLv«
of the underlying in-house core competencies «SX£f
Regarding future challenges, EPA should examine presenftech
1 -3 Other Possible Scenarios
"AW r "'T "wl"JUl ranei approach described in
s about6 h^V^ Comm!t.tee identified eight additional
S aDOUt the tnfiirp t/-> vvnjch T3n A _i i . .
a) Will fossil fuel depletion lead to use of resources
having a greater potential for environmental contam?
nation and habitat loss?
b) Will major industrial accidents and/or terrorist activi-
ties impacting the environment become major prob-
lems for the Agency to address?
c) Will deterioration of urban infrastructure (pipelines for
water, sewage, and fuels) increase the potential for
serious environmental incidents?
d) Will recognition of the high cost-benefit ratio
e) Will environmental contaminant sinks, such as con-
tonmated sediments, be recognized as posing greater
nsk than existing point-discharges?
f) Will conventional technology for the control of newly
8ne Cn found to ^
g)
Will electromagnetic radiation become widely recog-
nized as a major health threat as new technologifs
'
h)
adverse effects accumulates?
Will industrial-ecology concepts lead to misuse of
wastes by industrial/commercial sectors that cauS more
exposure problems flian solutions?
1 -4 Lessons Learned on Methodology
ologi^devSo^d S res ^ ^ **»" *«**
horizon The EPA should "5T« P™
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2. Introduction
2.1 The Charge
A Julv 16, 1993, memo from Mr. David Gardiner-, Assis-
tant Adminis&torfo; the Office of Policy, Planning andEvau-
aUon (OPPE) to EPA Administrator Carol Browner requested
X the Science Advisory Board (SAB) assist in the continued
Spment of EPA's capacity to anticipate environmental
problems, issues and opportunities.
The SAB accepted the request, and formed an Environmen-
the environment.
The Environmental Futures Committee asked all the SAB
Standing Committees to assist with this effort by devdopmg
their own approaches, using scientific and technical expertise
a-> evaluate baseline information and trends, identifying
} Ssues that may be expected in the future to have
increasing impacts on human health and the environ-
ment;
2.2 Committee Process
At its October 28-29, 1993, meeting, as described hi.Sec-
tion 3, the Environmental Engineering Committee (EEC) test
conducted a brainstorming session and then narrowed fteir
Stations to three technical issues. A fourth, crosscuttmg
issue was added later, as was a commentary on methodology
Stial writing assignments and schedules related to completion
ofataft report were established. Designated authors prepared
Sports that addressed drivers, scenarios, consequences of sce-
nLs, and mitigation of potential impacts. Initially a subset of
the EEC, the Environmental Futures Writing Subcommittee
wL responsible for drafting the report. However, as interactions
with the EFC progressed, the report changed to an extent that !t
became a product of the entire EEC.
to:
b) focus on one or more relevant issues; and
c)
suggest a procedure by which future environmental
concerns can be recognized at an early stage.
The EEC then held three publicly amounc™ UU1"C^"7
calls followed by public meetings in February and March 1994.
Sese nTeetings the EEC identified elements for the compos-
He report summarizing the process, outcomes, and recommen-
dations rfie EEC members and involved consultants are shown
[n thfroster at the front of this report.) The EEC approved the
Lembkd report and submitted it to the EFC for review and
vetting on behalf of the SAB Executive Committee.
2.3 Coordination
Close coordination with the EFC was achieved by partici-
pation of the initial writing-group chair and vice-chaii-m EFC
meetings where they interacted with invited futunstsand
£L experts. Coordination with OPPE was achieved by invit-
ing representatives to attend EEC meetings and participate in
conference calls.
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3. Output of the Process
3.1 Methodology
After considering a number of options, the EEC settled on
an approach to its Futures Project that led to relatively rapid
issue selection and a period for preparing and discussing reports
on the selected issues. The remainder of Section 3.1 discusses
the EEC's initial approach.
3.1.1 "Expert Panel" Approach and
"Brainstorming"
On October 28, 1993, the EEC identified future challenges
with as-yet unanticipated consequences. The discussions were
free ranging, i.e., not restricted to specific committee expertise.
On October 29, 1993, after an opportunity for reflection and
further thought, the EEC revisited the initial brainstorm list.
Using the collective expertise of the EEC, members developed
an unprioritized listing of issues that could present future chal-
lenges with possible surprises to the Agency.
Subsequently, and with the help of a consultant more
familiar with futures work, the EEC ultimately arrived at—and
recommends to others—a related, but methodologically more
formal, approach for issues selection, the elements of which are
discussed in Section 3.3 of this report.
3.1.2 Narrowing the List of Issues
Recognizing practical limits of time, expertise and re-
sources, the EEC developed the following "filtering" criteria to
establish a set of issues to address via subtask writing assign-
ments:
a) Is this a new issue? (i.e., likely to necessitate new
actions or changes in what EPA is now doing)
b) Is the issue credible?
c) Does the issue focus on science/technology that can be
effectively addressed by expertise of the EEC?
d) Are there critical uncertainties that should be addressed?
e) Is the impact of the issue potentially large?
f) Are potential consequences understood?
g) Is the current infrastructure of environmental protec-
tion adequate to address the issue?
h) Is the issue redundant to others on the list, or can
common issues be categorized into one topical issue
that includes the original issues?
By aggregating common issues under broader subject cat-
egories, applying screening criteria, and further discussion, the
EEC narrowed the original brainstormed list to three. A fourth
was added at the time of the first Subcommittee conference call.
a) Issue #1: EPA's actions that could foster environmen-
tal quality protection and improvements while assur-
ing the sustained industrial development in a
competitive manufacturing economy.
b) Issue #2: EPA's best response to increasing societal
pressures for the redevelopment of urban industrial
sites and remediated land while serving urban needs
for environmental protection.
c) Issue #3: EPA's preparedness to address threats posed
to human health and natural resources by transient
phenomena of natural origin.
d) Issue #4: EPA's need to regularly evaluate core techni-
cal competencies to address both existing and future
environmental challenges. Core competencies are de-
fined as "the essential and distinct scientific and tech-
nical capabilities that enable the EPA to fulfill its
current and future missions."
The EEC did not attribute an over-arching, prioritized
importance to the four selected issues to the exclusion of other
potentially significant environmental issues related to engineer-
ing and technology. Hence, the EEC recognized that there, no
doubt, are other issues of considerable importance to the Agency
that could have been addressed. Indeed, in the latter stages of its
work, the EEC identified eight additional future scenarios re-
lated to technology that should be of concern to EPA (Table 4).
A more comprehensive analysis and assessment by EPA, be-
yond the scope of this effort, would be necessary to establish
national prioritization of these and other possible technological
issues.
issues.
3.1.3
Trends, Drivers, Scenarios,
Consequences and Mitigation
Analyses
A single author, at times using some material supplied by
others, prepared background reports for each issue. In develop-
ing the reports, authors relied on their own expertise, consulta-
tions (with Agency staff, other SAB committee members, and
committee consultants), literature resources, Agency assistance
(material resources), and other resources.
Attached as appendices are the individually authored back-
ground papers on each major issue discussed in this consensus
portion of the EEC report. This material was most useful in
providing a starting point and stimulating ideas. The EEC
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incorporated part, but not all, of the concepts presented in the
appendices in this consensus report.
Appendix A
Manufacturing Sustainability by Dr. Walter Shaub
Appendix B
Redevelopment of Industrial Sites and Remediated Land
by Dr. Hilary I. Inyang and Lynne Preslo
Appendix C
Transient Phenomena by Dr. Frederick G. Pohland
Appendix D
Core Competency by Dr. Wm. Randall Seeker
Appendix E
Futures Methodology by Mr. Theodore J. Gordon
The efforts of these authors are very much appreciated.
The authors examined the issues in terms of drivers and
trends associated with drivers. (Information about drivers and
trends specific to each issue can be found in the appended
individual reports.) Authors used these drivers and trends to
construct futures scenarios, expose consequences, and suggest
methods of mitigation.
a) Drivers: identification of drivers (e.g., rate of waste
generation) that lead to potentially adverse human
health and environmental impacts. The authors identi-
fied drivers for each of the issues.
b) Trends: an analysis of current trends in activities that
relate ultimately to impacts to human health and the
environment. The analysis of each issue included an
examination of current trends, and, via scenario devel-
opment, an examination of possible future trends.
c) Scenarios: models of plausible "futures" (e.g., what if
current waste generation rates continue unabated?) and
possible impacts that can arise due to the influence of
drivers. Because the construction of highly detailed
scenarios that •fully incorporate all possible drivers is
an extremely complex, subjective and time-consuming
undertaking, authors abstracted scenarios from litera-
ture resources or constructed more simplified sce-
narios that were exemplary of possible drivers.
d) Consequences: consequences that arise due to poten-
tial impacts (e.g., unchecked contamination of land by
generated wastes). To the extent time and effort per-
mitted, EEC authors carried out consequence analysis,
suggesting possible outcomes of various scenarios.
c) Mitigation: analysis of potential impacts in order to
identify means to mitigate undesired consequences
(e.g., means to prevent waste generation). For mitiga-
tion analysis, EEC authors drew both on the expertise
of EEC members and consultants, as well as literature
resources.
3.1.4 Guidance
The authors configured and analyzed scenarios using the
following EEC guidelines:
a) Develop/utilize scenarios "possible" in a 5- or 30-year
time frame .and for which Agency management prepa-
ration, if desirable, is a reasonable expectation. For
example, in the case of "transient phenomena" there is
no point in evaluating a scenario that envisages the
EPA having to deal with environmental consequences
of a large asteroid impact upon earth, as the conse-
quences cannot be reasonably addressed by EPA.
b) Scenarios should be "new," i.e., they should be repre-
sentative of circumstances that could lead to environ-
mental challenges that the Agency has not yet
adequately addressed or would not likely consider at
this time.
'• c) There should be logical reasons for constructing one
scenario and not another. The basis upon which the
scenarios have been constructed should be described
and defensible. For example, examination of currently
• available information concerning various driving vari-
ables may be the basis for constructing scenarios.
An alternative approach may involve use of heuristic
reasoning, "scientific intuition," or some other plau-
sible basis. '' . .
d) For each scenario constructed and evaluated, possible
impacts that could pose hazards to human health and
the environment should be identified. These impacts
should be examined to understand possible conse-
quences that may arise when and if the impacts occur.
e) Ultimately, through construction and evaluation, sce-
narios should be able to reveal the readiness, now and/
or in the future, of the Agency to implement desirable
management practices that can mitigate or reduce ad-
verse consequences or produce benefits associated with
the selected scenarios.
3.2 Results
The discussion below summarizes the issues studies.
3.2.1 Issue #1: Environmental Protection
and Manufacturing Sustainability
In its analysis, the EEC addressed both "sustainable devel-
opment" that does not lead to degradation of environmental
quality and environmental protection that does not lead to
industrial uncompetitiveness. Governments at regional, national,
and international levels—and the private sector—are respond-
ing to the challenge of Sustainability by looking for ways to
address increasing threats to environmental quality and indus-
trial competitiveness—both in the near and long term.
3.2.1.1 Scenarios and Drivers
For this analysis, the background paper used by the EEC
relied heavily on Government Policy Options to Encourage
Cleaner Production and Products in the 1990s, particularly the
following text, which identifies key measures of Sustainability
(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD, 1992)).
"...the goals of industrial policy cart be achieved
while, at the same time, improving (or at least maintain-
ing) environmental quality and respecting the finite na-
-------
ture of the resource base as a function of time. In a
national context, key measures of sustainability would
appear to be as follows:
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in constant
currency units to increase over time;
• ratio of GDP per capita to the quantity of a contami-
nant of interest (e.g., NOx in the air, generation of
organic liquid wastes, inorganic heavy metals in water
or products, pesticides in soils, etc.) to increase over
time at a greater rate than GDP per capita over time,
and the contaminants of interest should decrease in
absolute terms;
• the use of various raw materials (e.g., wood, water,
iron ore, oil, coal, etc.) to be such that their depletion
over time is reduced to an environmentally justifiable
minimum;
• output of marketable goods and services per employee
(labor productivity) to increase as a function of time;
• total job creation to increase over time; and
• industry to be able to retain or improve its competitive-
ness with time if and when all of the foregoing condi-
tions are met."
Appendix A examines the current situation, trends based on
the current situation, future scenarios based on possible future
trends, the concept of sustainability, and issues and challenges
faced by the manufacturing sector of industry and regulations.
To explore future possible environmental problems that pose
challenges to realizing sustainable development, the author
examined three scenarios by comparing output data that de-
scribed hazardous waste generation over a period of several
decades. One scenario assumed constant hazardous waste inten-
sities, a second assumed a high peak and fall off to a constant
level, and a third had a lower peak due to the poorest countries
employing the cleanest of existing technologies. Appendix A
contains details.
A key finding was that to benefit both the environ-
ment and U.S. industrial competitiveness in the global
marketplace, Agency decisions concerning clean tech-
nologies need to be carefully constructed and balanced.
One option found to be successful within the OECD is
negotiated compliance. In the U.S., this could include
consideration of risk-reduction goals based on a multi-
media, entire-facility basis. Carefully conceived EPA ef-
forts to conserve resources and protect human health and
the environment, and at the same time promote clean
technologies, production processes, and products, could
meet both desirable regulatory objectives and enhance
U.S. industrial competitiveness.
3.2.1.2 Discussion.
The EEC subscribes to the findings and recommendations
of Reducing Risk (EPA, 1990). Its recommendations here should
be read in the context of a desire to foster risk reduction through
pollution prevention, which includes cleaner technologies.
Assuring environmental protection solely by the manage-
ment of wastes generated in the future poses significant prob-
lems for the Nation; mitigation requires the development and
deployment of cleaner technologies. The U.S. relies heavily
upon command and control, end-of-pipe, specified compliance-
oriented regulations. For reducing current emissions, continua-
tion of this practice can lead to expending more resources to
achieve the same degree of protection than would be needed if
waste generation were reduced through the use of cleaner
technologies. Implementation of clean technologies should be
encouraged by specific incentives.
In the global marketplace, the U.S. share of end-of-pipe
environmental control technology is increasing. Data are not
available to determine whether the U.S. is having analogous
success promoting cleaner technologies and production pro-
cesses (Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), 1992). How-
ever, small- and medium-sized businesses, which form a
substantial segment of the manufacturing industry, are experi-
encing growing difficulties competing in the international mar-
ketplace.
EPA could adopt a strategy for environmental protection
that emphasizes the primacy of risk reduction, appropriate
regulatory flexibility, willingness to negotiate expectations
among all stakeholders, and opportunities to improve competi-
tive positioning of American manufacturing industry in the
global marketplace. EPA might choose to negotiate more fully
on how an industry will meet risk-based levels, recognizing that
an industry ought to have maximal expertise about its own
processes. For U.S. industries, the outcome of such a strategy
could be improved market share, strengthened ability to miti-
gate future environmental threats, and promotion of source
reduction. Ultimately, environmental policy should recognize
that the nation's environmental and economic health are interre-
lated.
In all three scenarios analyzed by the author of Appendix
A, the quantities of waste generated increased, and it was
difficult to achieve sustainability because:
a) The complexity, diffuseness, and uncertainty of risks
associated with manufacturing technology, production
processes, and products are increasing, and the mar-
ketplace has globalized; and
b) Present trends in regulatory activity (e.g., single-me-
dia, "brightline" standards for each source) could place
U.S. industry in a less competitive position in the
future, with concurrent loss of jobs and ability to
renew capital stock needed to acquire cleaner tech-
nologies and production processes (OECD 1992- OTA
1993; EPA, 1992).
EPA should consider establishing a vision of sustainability
and adopt a creative approach that both demands appropriate
environmental performance and promotes cleaner technologies.
3.2.1.3 Possible Agency Actions
To establish such a vision of sustainability, EPA could
consider some of the ideas for policy options discussed in the
documents used in preparation of Appendix A:
-------
a) Government Policy Options to Encourage Cleaner
Production and Products in the 1990s, Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris,
1992
b) Improving Technology Diffusion for Environmental
Protection, National Advisory Council for Environ-
mental Policy and Technology (NACEPT), EPA, Wash-
ington, DC, 1992
c) Industry, Technology and the Environment—Competi-
tive Challenges and Business Opportunities, OTA,
Washington, DC, 1993
3.2.2 Issue 2: Redevelopment of
Industrial Sites and Remediated
Land.
ing factors are different. It is possible to construct other sce-
narios, including ones that are more optimistic about the quality
of American urban life, but these two were the only ones
addressed by the EEC.
The potential exposure of each segment of the U.S. popula-
tion to undesirable environmental stressors is location-specific.
Therefore the rate of growth and spatial distribution of popula-
tion within a given region have indirect influences on environ-
mental exposures to various sources of pollutants. Present trends
in urban land use restrictions will increase pressure to use
abandoned industrial and remediated sites. The prospect of
human activity and occupancy at such sites raises environmen-
tal and human health concerns.
Appendix B examines the current situation regarding aban-
doned industrial sites and remediated land use, Agency regula-
tory policies and practices, trends in redevelopment, future
scenarios based on possible future population trends, issues, and
challenges faced by urban planners in addressing land use
requirements, and the nature of and means to encourage appro-
priate redevelopment.
3.2.2.1 Scenarios and Drivers
Two scenarios were investigated. The major driving factors
for/against land redevelopment are population increase, socio-
economic trade-offs, legal liability, risk acceptability, and ad-
vances in technology.
In Scenario 1, inner city dwellers migrate to suburban areas
and greener sites. The driving factors are infrastructure decay in
inner city areas, increase in crime rates that may be influenced
by higher unemployment rates in densely populated centers,
and greater availability of white-collar employment opportuni-
ties in suburbs. This scenario assumes that the middle class will
flee inner city areas to greener outskirts.
In Scenario 2 the population of inner cities increases much
more rapidly, while the suburbs experience only moderate
population increases. The driving factors are high levels of
immigration and high birth rates for population segments in the
low income bracket. New residents will initially prefer to settle
in large urban areas, where unskilled labor is still in high
demand relative to rural and suburban areas. Despite the ex-
pected increase in inner city population, the mobility of resi-
dents to the suburbs could be impeded by their lack of
white-collar skills and financial resources.
The two scenarios each promote the redevelopment of
abandoned industrial sites and other sites that are classified as
being contaminated. However, the interactions among the driv-
A key finding was that the Agency should ensure that
appropriate technology is available and/or deployed to
redevelop urban contaminated industrial sites and
remediated land; this should be done in'a manner that
avoids problem environmental exposures and meets
intracity needs for development, commerce, and conser-
vation.
3.2.2.2 Discussion
This section briefly discusses the major driving factors for
land redevelopment: population increase, socioeconomic trade-
offs, legal liability, risk, and .advances in technology. More
detail is found in Appendix B.
The Census Bureau's lowest series estimate of U.S. popu-
lation for the year 2030, the time frame that corresponds reason-
ably to the Futures Project analysis period, is 287 million.
United Nations estimates show that the percentage of global
population residing in cities of 4 million or greater is expected
to grow from 15.8 per cent in 1985 to 24.5 in 2025. Similarly,
the Census Bureau indicates that in 1990 roughly one-third of
Americans lived in central cities, one-third in suburbs, and one-
third in rural areas. It appears that a moderate influx of new
residents into metropolitan areas and high birth rates among
urban residents could cause acute scarcity of space in the cities.
Market forces will play a significant role in land redevelop-
ment in urban areas. Redevelopment activities usually revitalize
industries such as construction, insurance, hardware sales, and
road construction. Such revitalization leads municipal govern-
ments to cherish increases in construction because it reduces
unemployment rates. Therefore, municipal governments some-
times use incentives such as tax breaks to retain companies and
attract new ones. When municipal governments consider urban
infrastructure improvement projects, "enterprise zones," and
the assessment of options for promoting sustainable reuse of
abandoned industrial sites, closed military bases, and other
government property, they also consider policy options involv-
ing changes in zoning codes and regulations, lending and insur-
ance practices, and future liability responsibility.
Currently, liability concerns discourage potential develop-
ers from purchasing contaminated land for subsequent redevel-
opment. Some recent state and federal legislative proposals and
judicial decisions indicate that liability concerns, which cur-
rently impede the transfer and redevelopment of former indus-
trial sites and other types of contaminated land, may wane
within the next 30 years.
At the present time, "health-based" cleanup standards have
not been achieved in a cost-effective manner for soil and
groundwater at many contaminated sites. Most types of technol-
ogy and techniques employed are relatively new, and uncertain-
ties remain. The EEC's position is that the risks to workers in
redeveloped facilities and to residents using remediated land
-------
should not be increased by the push for redevelopment, rather,
that cost-effective technology be applied/developed to reduce
exposure and thereby achieve the desired low-risk levels. Ex-
posure can be reduced by cleanup, barriers, and use restrictions.
The Agency needs to review and revise, as needed, current
exposure and risk assessment methods for adaptation to rede-
velopment scenarios. Regulatory agencies also should recog-
nize that there may be different and possibly fewer pathways of
exposure and risk at redeveloped inner-city and industrial sites.
For instance, since a public water supply is reliably provided,
the ground-water pathway may not be of concern at such sites.'
3.2.2.3 Possible Agency Actions
Appendix B makes recommendations about data needs on
site inventory and spatial distribution, site redevelopment and
city/regional planning, exposure assessment and site cleanup
levels, engineering mitigation schemes for structures, educa-
tion, research, and in-house expertise. Information gaps are
presented in Table 1.
3.2.3 Issue 3: Transient Events
Whether of meteorological or geological origin, natural
disasters cause damage to the environment with the extent of
damage being directly linked to population, land use practices
and structures. A transient phenomenon (e.g., earthquake, wild-
fire, volcanic eruption, landslide, flood, hurricane, rain storm,
tornado, heavy snowfall, etc.) may convert a hazard into an
ecological or health and safety catastrophe.
The magnitude and intensity of disaster events are often
measured in terms of human health and welfare, as well as
environmental perturbations, a domain shared by EPA with
other agencies. Appendix C addresses issues related to Agency
responsibilities and preparedness, primarily in response to an-
ticipated environmental threats posed to human health and
natural resources by transient phenomena, vis-a-vis analysis of
a selected subordinate—challenges posed by riverine floods.
3.2.3.1 Scenarios and Drivers
Two scenarios were investigated. Scenario 1 assumed that
a riverine flood of significant magnitude posing serious envi-
ronmental threats to a large (or smaller, but intensively utilized
or high population density) area occurs under circumstances in
which governmental units have not effectively established nec-
essary capability (preparedness) to address the problems and
potential consequences. Threats considered in a natural hazards
sequence include landslides, debris impacts, erosion, impacts to
power supplies, damage to underground utilities, disrupted wa-
ter supplies, chemical and other contamination, and sewage
releases.
The second scenario-was essentially the same as the first,
except that some level of preparedness at the national level by
EPA was presumed. The choice of scenarios was intended to
bring out a sense of the nature and potential severity of conse-
quences.
Appendix C uses a natural hazards sequence tree to relate
disaster events, e.g., intense thunderstorm, to subsequent natu-
ral disaster phenomena, e.g., riverine flood, and to ensuing
adverse environmental impacts, e.g., contamination of water
resources. This analysis was coupled with a detailed examina-
tion of pertinent literature concerning actual and potential op-
portunities to establish and implement appropriate strategies to
prevent or mitigate impacts of natural disasters.
A key finding was' that environmental consequences
of natural disasters, such as riverine floods, are not being
adequately addressed by established response protocols
and definition ofinteragency responsibilities. EPA should
consider analyzing the serious environmental challenges
posed by natural disasters, clearly identify its responsi-
bilities in this area, and proactively develop a program
that can anticipate, prevent or mitigate threats to human
health and the environment for implementation by col-
laboration with appropriate agencies.
Table 1. Urban Redevelopment Information Gaps
a) Availability of data on population and spatial growth patterns of
U.S. cities.
b) Availability of data on the number and distribution of both closed
industrial sites and remediated land relative to large population
centers.
c) Availability of centralized information resources on liability laws
and trends relevant to site redevelopment.
d) Existence of comprehensive schemes for integrating site
redevelopment into city and regional plans.
e) Existence of federal policies with adequate latitude for local
jurisdictional controls on redevelopment.
f) Availability of technical schemes and research data for address-
ing issues such as residual contaminant migration, exposure and
risk assessments for site redevelopment, relevant cleanup
standards, foundation systems in residually contaminated land
occupational health and safety, and environmental equity.
g) Availability of expertise within the EPA to address these issues.
3.2.3.2 Discussion
Although taken as a whole, there is no evidence that the
frequency of natural disasters will differ significantly in the
future from that of past occurrences, population growth, capital
investment, and increased intensity of land use and manage-
ment in vulnerable areas have led to significantly increased
potential for damage caused by natural disasters. Indeed, steady
stressors, such as leachate from a waste disposal site, have
received more attention than have the consequences of such
natural incidents, largely because they frequently have recog-
nizable and manageable spatial and temporal dimensions.
Recent events, for example, hurricane damage and extreme
cold weather in the eastern seaboard states; earthquakes, fires
and mudslides in western coastal regions; and unprecedented
flooding in central and southeastern regions of the country
severely affect human health and the environment. Given in-
creasing intensity of land use and population growth in suscep-
tible areas, potential consequences to the health and environment
could be severe, unless means to protect these areas from
natural disasters are established.
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A National Research Council report (NRC, 1991) proposed
a multidisciplinary program for the government without explic-
itly defining a role for EPA (There was no EPA representation
in the report's development.). The EEC finds that in the area of
protection of natural resources, research to improve prediction
of hydrologic hazards and impacts on human and natural re-
sources, and coordination and standardization of data collection
stand out as potential initiatives related to the mission of EPA.
The EEC recommends that EPA consider proactively ad-
dressing the environmental threats posed by natural disasters.
Benefits that should be sought include: reduction in life and
property losses; marginal land rehabilitation, zoning and con-
version; safeguards against transient outcomes, e.g., flood-de-
rived contamination and its micro- and macro-scale effects;
provisions for developing hazard-specific data bases and guid-
ance to the public and private sectors; catalysis of research and
development for innovative remedial and preventive technolo-
gies; and improvement and use of EPA's capabilities as an
important contributor to reducing adverse health and environ-
mental impacts of natural disasters and promoting protection for
at-risk natural and human populations.
3.2.3.3 Possible Agency Actions
To strengthen its overall state of readiness, EPA could
adopt some or all of the options discussed in Appendix C. Table
2 presents some example options.
3.2.4 Issue 4: Core Competencies
An important crosscutting issue that emerged is the Agency's
readiness to address technically foreseeable events that fall
within the mission of the Agency. Specifically, the concept of
"core competency" emerged, as defined below:
The core competencies are the essential and distinct
scientific and technical capabilities that enable EPA to
fulfill its current and future missions. Having core compe-
tencies supports EPA's ability to approach regulations in
Table 2. Example Agency Actions Related to Transient
Events
a) Establish an overall vision of a proactive program aimed at
addressing environmental threats posed by natural disasters.
b) Obtain data for analyses that address environmental and human
health and welfare aspects of hazards. Such data should support
risk assessments, mitigation and prevention, emergency
response, prediction and warning. Data acquisition, validation,
education and technology transfer could be established at EPA.
c) Undertake an internal Agency-wide evaluation of current
capabilities related to policies and associated programmatic
efforts aimed at mitigating environmental threats posed by
natural disasters.
d) Analyze programs external to the Agency and identify relevant
programmatic aspects of external programs that can interface,
complement, or supplement internal agency efforts.
e) Catalyze environmental disaster prevention and preparedness
strategy among government agencies. As necessary, expand
Agency capabilities and activities where current capabilities
prove inadequate.
an integrated, efficient, cost-effective and harmonized
manner and to address multi-pollutant and multimedia
problems with the limited resources that will likely be
available to the Agency.
Appendix D provides commentary concerning the need, in
the context of environmental futures, for the Agency to system-
atically identify, examine and appraise core technical compe-
tencies. Core EPA engineering examples might be competency
for the improved design and operation of water and wastewater
treatment facilities or hazardous waste incinerators and better
modeling of pollution transport through groundwater, surface
waters, air, or the food-chain. More complete listings can be
found in the SAB document Future Risk (EPA, 1988).
A key finding is that EPA should systematically iden-
tify its core competencies and strengthen them where
needed.
3.2.4.1 Scenarios and Drivers
EEC did not use scenario and driver analyses for this issue,
rather it drew on the experience of its previous activities.
3.2.4.2 Discussion
In the course of many reviews, the EEC has observed the
excessive reliance of EPA staff on contractors in areas of
science and technology that seem to be in areas of core compe-
tency. The need to attend to increasingly complex, lengthy, and
heavily compliance-oriented legislation may have placed a heavy
burden upon the Agency. Agency attention is, therefore, fo-
cused on the development and implementation of regulations at
the expense of maintenance and improvement of in-house core
competencies.
There are advantages—regarding both present and future
environmental issues—to attending to both regulatory activities
and underlying technical requirements. With regard to future
challenges, the Agency could undertake a careful examination
of technical core competencies and, as warranted, modify and/
or augment present capabilities, leveraging across other govern-
mental and private sector activities where appropriate.
3.2.4.3 Possible Agency Actions
To enhance core competence for present and future needs,
EPA could consider adoption of some Or all of the policy
options discussed in Appendix D and summarized in Table 3. In
general, EEC considers it advisable for the Agency to system-
atically identify and examine its technical core competencies
and make a determination regarding the adequacy of present
resources judged against those competencies needed to address
both existing and future environmental issues.
3.3. A Futures Methodology Approach
The EEC learned by doing and in so doing found other
approaches that could be usefully incorporated in future under-
takings of this nature. The EEC arrived at and recommends the
following future issues analysis approach for consideration for
use by EPA.
10
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Table 3. Example Issues Related to EPA Core Competency
s5r,s^^
a)
c)
d) The realization of sound, technical core competencies can enable the Aaencv to catah/7f> innn«',nr,n M™QO «, ,- •
.dentation of core competencies can uncover partnership opportunist l^ncS *«
'
°'
3.3.7
Brainstorming and Criteria-based
Selections
b)
The EEC brainstormed to form an initial list of possible
environmental engineering issues that might be addressed in the
futures study. EEC used criteria to shorten the list to a few
significant, representative issues for a more in-depth study The
EEC experience showed:
a) An expert committee process can identify potentially
important future issues, but absent some constraining
criteria, the list may include items of different levels of
generality (e.g., domains of issues, generic issues,
specific issues) that are difficult to compare.
b) Many of the items initially suggested for inclusion in
the brainstormed list were, strictly speaking, not is-
sues. They were, rather, domains within which any of a
number of issues might be found. This led to a number
of attempts to group issues and subsume others under
more general headings.
c) The development of a formalized approach to score or
weight issues is a challenging undertaking and should
be pursued both with attention to all stakeholders and
in respect to a need to harmonize the process.
Based on these findings, the EEC recommends:
a)
Experts involved in brainstorming and/or scanning
sessions should be carefully selected and should repre-
sent as comprehensive a range of experience as practi-
cable. Expert participants in a brainstorming exercise,
are, in a sense, the eyes and ears of a "lookout"
enterprise.
c)
Participants should know the priority-setting criteria
before they suggest future issues. Modifications to the
proposed criteria set should be pursued until the set is
harmonized. The following criteria could be used as an
initial basis for development of a harmonized criteria
Scope: If the issue develops, might it affect many
people or a few? All other things being equal, one
issue may be more important than another if it affects
more people. .
Severity: If the issue develops, might its effects be
severe (the most severe effect being death or a species
loss)?
I
Novelty: Is the issue new, or has it already received
considerable attention?
Plausibility/probability/certainty: How might the is-
sue develop? What are its chances of developing?
Uncertainty: Are there crucial uncertainties that make
an issue important?
Irreversibility: If the issue is not addressed, might its
consequence be (largely) irreversible?
Imminence: Is the issue imminent? All other things
being equal, a near-term problem is more important
than a longer-term one.
Visibility: Is the issue in the public eye? What are the
ramifications for addressing the issue?
Possibly, in some negotiated and agreed-upon manner,
criteria can be v/eighted. This weighting should be
discussed before the actual nomination of issues. As
11
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there is considerable disharmony regarding the merits
of weighting schemes, it is essential to eliminate or at
least minimize subjectivity in weighting decisions to
the maximal extent practicable.
d) An alternative approach contemplates that items in the
issues list be categorized more loosely, e.g., as high,
medium or low priority.
e) To improve the efficiency of the process, when an
expert (or stakeholder) panel is asked to nominate
issues, the usual rules for brainstorming should be
adjusted; rather than opening up the discussion for
whatever anyone has to say in any form, the group
should be given some structural (not content) guid-
ance. For example, the instruction:
"Please suggest important future issues for EPA. Limit
your response to your own experience and background
in making these suggestions. Consider the criteria
(listed). Please frame your input in the form of an issue
rather than a domain, and include a principal conse-
quence in your statement."
f) To mitigate influences of one individual upon another,
to the extent possible, suggestions and discussions
concerning candidate issues should allow for anonym-
ity. However, some process should be established to
resolve ambiguities concerning the meaning or ramifi-
cations of individual statements concerning issues.
g) As challenges to the'Agency have a dynamic character
(new observations and knowledge gives rise to new
imperatives), the process of issue development should
be repeated at intervals of six months, a year, or some
other practical time frame.
3.3.2 Selecting an Approach
If EPA undertakes futures analyses, it may wish to consider
the following:
a) To realize their full potential, scenarios, particularly
quantitative scenarios, involve great complexity and
much time-consuming effort to construct. [NB: Such
an undertaking was beyond the scope of the present
initiative.] Scanning the environmental horizon by
"lookout" panels may be a more practical way to get a
quick start.
b) In an Agency-wide undertaking, EPA can use sce-
narios, for example: to trace chains of causality lead-
ing to the present; to explore unique future
developments and their consequences; to examine the
implications of action or inaction and the ranges of
possible outcomes; to explore the roles of all stake-
holders; and, perhaps most importantly, to further stimu-
late imagination.
c) The "natural hazard sequence" diagram included in the
transient phenomena appendix illustrates an approach
to scenarios that has the benefits of displaying the full
array of impacts flowing from a single cause, visually
presenting the decision "branch points" at which policy
intervention may be possible.
d) The methodolpgy used in the present exercise, al-
though placing less emphasis on scenario utility, can
be viewed as a prototype for an Agency "expert look-
out panel," i.e., in which experts are asked, systemati-
cally, to identify important future issues, to select
those that appear to be most important through suc-
cinct and well-defined screening criteria, and to study
those of high priority. Based on the present exercise
and retrospective examinations of the process, the
Subcommittee .recommends a framework for a second
generation approach that the Agency might implement
as a possible future issues analysis paradigm.
As outlined below, the Agency can design and implement a
"lookout" system for detecting and analyzing incipient future
developments that might threaten the environment or provide
new policy opportunities for the Agency. The Subcommittee
suggests that the system, at a minimum, have the following
characteristics: ..-.-..-
a) draw input from a wide range of sources, considering
diversity; ' . '......
b) operate in a continuous rather than a "one-shot" mode;
c) have a memory, so that suggestions that are set aside
today for lack of data or interest can be reassessed in
the future;
d) be quantitative, wherever possible;
e) be subject to scrutiny by people outside of the process;
f) have explicit goals; and
g), recognize that many futures are possible.
3.3.3 A Candidate Futures Issues
Analysis Approach
One approach would be for EPA.to set up "Lookout Pan-
els" in areas of health, ecology, socioeconomics, and technol-
ogy. Each panel would have some cross-discipline representation.
In addition,
a) The process would be conducted by EPA staff, but
involve experts within and outside the Agency.
b) Panelists would be contacted periodically to scan their
fields and provide observations about new or intensi-
fying issues and their consequences.
c) These observations would be collected and fed back to
the other panelists for comment.
d) Candidate issues would be screened against agreed-to
criteria. Surviving issues would be analyzed versus
any Existing scenarios and EPA gbal statements.
e) Recommended near-term actions for EPA based on
project futures then would be developed.
3.3.4 Pilot Test of Issue Identification
The EEC conducted a test run of the early steps in the
above Look-Out Panel Methodology and identified the issues
listed in Table 4 for further evaluation by EPA.
12
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Table 4. Additional Technology and Environment Concerns
- water, sewerage, fuels) increase the potentia, for serious environmenta,
e)
by ,he pub,ic .eading to cha«enges to
the demand for traditional command and con tro rTsponsef mss Wv Jt th600"16 m°re, rec°Snized bV *e public, thereby
reduchon and elimination strategies, or decreasing a\ready™Ze™ ^^ "** a"d ''nn°VatiVe P°"ution
h) Wil, industrial-ecology concepts lead to use of wastes by industrial/commercial
sectors that cause more problems than
13
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4. Summary and Recommendations
4.1 Remarks Specific to Issues Analyzed
For the four issues examined, the EEC developed the fol-
lowing serious concerns that need to be addressed by the Agency:
a) Agency decisions concerning clean production tech-
nologies need to be carefully constructed and balanced,
so that there are benefits both to the environment and to
U S industrial competitiveness. Flexibility in achiev-
ing the desired risk reduction at a facility could pro-
mote deployment of cleaner technologies to replace
end-of-pipe control technologies.
b) The Agency needs to ensure appropriate technology is
available and/or deployed to redevelop urban contami-
nated industrial sites and remediated land; this needs to
be done in such a way that avoids significant exposures
and meets intracity needs for development, commerce,
and conservation.
c) The Agency needs to strengthen its capability and
readiness to address potential environmental conse-
quences of natural disasters associated with transient
phenomena such as riverine floods considering trends
in population growth and inappropriate land use. Asso-
ciated planning and preparedness can help minimize
the potential adverse impacts on natural resources and
human health.
d) The Agency needs to systematically identify and exam-
ine the essential and distinct scientific and engineering
capabilities (core competencies) needed to address tech-
nical aspects of its present and expected future mission
and strengthen them where needed.
4.2 Other Findings
a) "Lookout Panels" are recommended to EPA in areas of
health, ecology, socioeconomics, and technology. Pan-
elists would periodically provide observations about
new or intensifying issues. After interaction and analy-
sis, recommendations for near-term EPA actions would
be developed. The EEC encourages EPA to improve
further means for identifying issues of concern and
establishing some agreed-upon criteria for assessing
the relative urgency and consequential importance of
action to address these issues.
b) The EEC, in its dry run of a portion of the Lookout
Panel paradigm, identified another eight scenarios that
may benefit from further analysis by others. They
appear in Table 4 and should be evaluated by EPA in
terms of likelihood, importance, and, if appropriate,
mitigation.
4.3 General Remarks
The Agency is commended for its foresight in undertaking
this initiative. It provided an opportunity to scan the future and
attempt to anticipate potential environmental threats that may
pose significant challenges to the Agency to address problems
as they arise. Moreover, the members of the EEC thank the SAB
and Agency Offices staff for assistance, resources, and time
commitments that have been useful in the conduct of this
initiative.
The SAB/EEC initiative as carried out can serve as a pilot
element for the development of a productive process for the
Agency in future undertakings of this nature. Although mem-
bers of the EEC found that scanning of possible futures was
challenging, it was only tractable under circumstances in which
its focus was limited to just a few issues. The downside of this
limitation of the SAB's futures project is the prospect that some
issues of importance have been inadvertently overlooked.
Should the exercise be taken up again by SAB, it would be
helpful if SAB Standing Committees would interact more at the
onset with all of the other SAB Standing Committees to enable
cross-comparison of issues, criteria, approach, expertise, and
resources. In this manner, a more comprehensive integration ot
ideas, inclusion of areas of importance, and more efficient use
of and access to resources, may be realized.
While the committee found forecasting to be a useful
exercise in addressing specific issues, a concomitant detailed
examination and analysis of current knowledge and historical
and current trends is absolutely essential in order to arrive at a
comprehensive view of environmental challenges and implica-
tions for Agency stance regarding both readiness and action
options.
Regarding the issues it addressed, the EEC is encouraged
by the prospect that the information generated may provide
useful advice to the Agency. The EEC believes that progress
aimed at addressing even a limited set of these options can
enable the Agency to move towards an enhanced state of
readiness and anticipatory posture with regard to future devel-
opments.
14
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5. References
1 EPA. 1988. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Science Advisory Board, Future Risk. EPA-SAB-EC-
88-040.
2 EPA. 1990. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Science Advisory Board, Reducing Risk: Setting Pri-
orities and Strategies for Environmental Protection.
EPA-SAB-EC-90-021.
3 EPA. 1992. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
NACEPT. Improving Technology Diffusion for Envi-
ronmental Protection.
4 NRC. 1991. National Research Council. "A Safer Fu-
ture—Reducing the Impacts of Natural Disaster," Na-
tional Academy Press: Washington, DC, pp. 67, ISBN
0-309-04546-0.
5 OECD. 1992. Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. Government Policy Options to En-
courage Cleaner Production and Products in the 1990s.
6 OTA. 1993. U.S. Office of Technology Assessment.
Industry, Technology and the Environment—Competi-
tive Challenges and Business Opportunities.
R-1
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Appendix A
Manufacturing Sustainability
by
Dr. Walter M. Shaub, President
CORRE, Inc.
Reston, VA
March 14, 1994
Prepared for
Futures Writing Subcommittee
Environmental Engineering Committee
Science Advisory Board
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
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1. The Impact of Striving to Achieve Sustainability
on a Manufacturing Ethic
A. Introduction
The global community has begun to take the view in regard
to sustainable development that economic growth sSd
progress under circumstances that do not lead to degrSation of
environment^ quality. In response to the challenges'
tS LTintem? deVel°Pment> govemments at regional/nl-
begun to look both in the near- and long-term for ways toattach
increasing threats to environmental quality.
This report examines the current situation, trends based on
me current situation, future scenarios based on possible future
"hv A ri°f sustainaMity, issues, and challenges
by the manufacturing sector of industry and EPA the
of and means to encourage development and deployment
_.', and possible options available to EPA to
>ut progress.
output of marketable goods and services per employee
(labour productivity) to increase as a function of time;
total job creation to increase over time; and
r improve its c°mpetiti
when all of the foregoing conditions
In the long term efforts aimed at development and utiliza
ion of cleaner technologies in order to assure dli produc
tion processes and cleaner products are seen as a Learn to
improve the prospect that environmental quality ci be main
tamed or improved.' For the manufacturing secSr of U 5"
industry, the challenge of striving to achiev^susSaMity fn
tte long term should lead towards me developme
e
concept of. sustainable development has been
umerous individuals and organizations, it is not
™nf T 7--~re ls a harmonized view of sustainable develop-
ment. In relation to the imp^ ~f <•*"••- - •- • - • -~"
on,
'
in , can remain competitive. In other
EPA r?/1*-311 evolutionaiy *ift in industrial pos-
, EPA must adjust its regulatory stance in order to encour
age cleaner production and products and to
in
indusby competitity i
whV of.industrial P°hcy can be achieved
while at the same time improving (or at least maintain-
Slfnf Tmental qUulity "* resPecting the finite
na tee of the resource base as a function of time. In a
national context, key measures of sustainability would
appear to be as follows:
• GDP per capita in constant currency units to increase
over time,
utilization per unit of manufactured product ou'put wnikSe
same time production, marketing, and dispoK (dean*)
products takes place under circumstances in
f Cr C3pita to ** <*uantity of a contami-
of interest (e.g., NOX in the air, generation of
organic liquid wastes, inorganic heavy metals in water
or products, pesticides in soils, etc.) to increase over
time at a greater rate than GDP per capita over time,
and the contaminants of interest should ideally de
crease in absolute terms;
pe' *
harmful contaminants) are held as low as practicable.
l e'g" W°°d' aer>
ore, oil, coal, etc.) to be such that their depletion
over time is reduced to an environmentally justifiable
H, !nfluence *e development and utilization of
cleaner technologies include:'- government signals and actions
raw material, energy, transport and waste disposal p '
tudes of management and labor, and public demaJ P
marke penetration at present has not been substantial
echno ogles are available, and efforts are underway to pte
innovative development and subsequent implementation rfnew
generations of cleaner technoloie^ IdeallyTn
A-1
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B. The Existing Situation and Current
Trends
As an indication of the complexity of potential industrial
impacts, it is reported5 that:
. about 7 million chemical substances are known.
. about 100,000 are available on the market.
. these products and other substances (chromium, cad-
mium etc.) are used in a growing number of consump-
tion or production sectors: pigments for paints,
lubricants, fertilizers, food additives, stabilizers, clean-
ing or anticorrosion agents, solvents, medicines, etc.
. EPA lists some 500 substances as hazardous, but in
practice scarcely more than 100 are covered by stan-
dards [NB the EEC lists is about 30 items].
It is reported5 that among developed nations, in spite of
measures taken, not only the quantity, but also the toxicity^and/
or complexity of wastes being generated have continued to
hrcreale md its processing still places a heavy financial burden
on Oie economy: Taken as a whole, the increasing worldwide
°nventor5 of harmful or potentially harmful [solid, liquid, gas-
eous] wastes* poses an increasing threat to environmental
qualiy This circumstance severely challenges attempts to es-
tablish sustainable development.
The presentcosts of controlling pollution outputs generated
, be enormous. A recent EPA cost assessment study reports
uia totaTScosts of pollution control in the U.S. were nearly
21%ofthe Gross National Product (GNP) or, with investments
annualized at 7%, ca $115 billion. Moreover, most of these
expenditures were made in the private sector, with the largest
exS iures in the chemical, petroleum, primary metals, food
Kaper industries. In addition/ a recent U.S. study suggest
that about 3% of GDP'will be required to attain ambient
environmental goals by the year 2005.
It is evident that past practices have lead to enormous costs
jciety, application of reactand control practices, i.e., argely
endS-pi^e management, and are likely to increasingly cos
societv a significant portion of national wealth. A recent study
sSVat Mention of waste formation or "reduction of waste
produced" must become a major thrust.
and the environment are the amount of wastes, and especially
their hazardous character, that are being generated and that
absent actions to the contrary, apparently will be generated in
increasing amounts in the future.
D. Scenarios of Future Impacts
' A recent investigation of future scenarios of hazardous
waste generation has been reported.' In view of the foregoing
discussions, it is relevant to environmental challenges posed by
activities within manufacturing sectors.
The futures scenarios that was exercised, modeled hazard-
ous waste generation (WHz) as a function of time calculated as
the product of:2
C.
Driving Variables
It is reported5 that if present trends in organic chemical and
metals pressing induces continue, 50% of the _produc s
Seated to be used in 15 year's time do not yet exist! ™e rate
of product generation with increasing diversity and complexity
Sa? accompany reduction in the overall consumption of natural
resources gives rise to doubts as to whether there can ever be
SsStic'control of their toxicity. Additionally, (he w»J
ohase of industrialization has been characterized by marked
differentiation ofrisks-now less probable, but potentially more
serious, more diffuse and varied, and more international It i
unlikely that they can be effectively managed without a radical
change in traditional patterns of industrial action.
In sum, in regard to the manufacturing sector, major drivers
of concerns for actual and potential impacts upon human health
WHz - WHz/W x W/GNP x GNP/capita x Population ,
Above WHz/W represents the ratio, hazardous waste gen-
erated/material throughput of the economy; W/GNP represents
the ratio, material throughput of the economy/GNP and GNP/
capita represents the ratio, GNP/capita. [NB an additional ex
pression, "hazardous waste intensity" was defined-as the ratio
of annual generation of hazardous waste to GNPJ.
A description of the three futures scenarios investigated are
presented below, while a more complete description and discus-
sion of the model and outcome of the exercise are to be found in
the cited reference:2
Scenario /• In this base-case scenario it was assumed that
global population trends continue such that global population
feaches 85 billion by 2025, 10 billion by 2050, and then
SbSSes mereafter due to improved standards of living, better
education, and birth control; recent medium-term trends in per
SpUa growth of GNP are assumed to continue throughout the
next clntury; and current hazardous waste intensities are as-
sumed to remain constant over the scenario period.
Scenario 2: In this scenario, it is assumed that the develop-
ing world industrializes fast over the next fifty years; itAssumes
the same population growth as Scenario 1; it« assumed that per
capita levels of GNP reach $20,000 on a global basis by the year
2040; and that thereafter, GNP per capita grows at ca 2% per
annum- hazardous waste intensities are assumed to peaK at
around 10 kg/$K at GNP levels of around $4000 per capita.
Following this peak, hazardous waste intensities are assumed to
Saway towards a constant level of 5 kg/$K by the time per
caoita GNP reaches $15,000 per annum. This scenario is con-
sSd reasonably conservative with respect to "present" trends
in development.
Scenario 3: (Cleaner Growth) In this scenario, economic
growth is assumed to be much slower than in the previous
fcenario- a global per capita GNP of $25,000 is assumed
a SS dUlopnJnt is Lamed to occur over the longer
period of a century. A peak value for hazardous waste intensity
5 5 kg/$K is realized, implying that the poorest countries
develorf by employing the cleanest of existing technologies and
processes* following this peak, hazardous waste Densities ate
Assumed to fall away towards a constant level of 0.5 kg/$K
(implies more than 90% reductions over existing hazardous
waste intensities-a major technological and economic .chal-
lenge).
A-2
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The outcome of these future scenarios, modeled according
to various inputs,2 indicated that global development based on
the use of existing technologies, processes, and standards and
consumption patterns of the industrialized world can lead to
considerable increases in hazardous waste generation: Even the
stringent assumptions of a "Cleaner Growth" scenario predicted
cumulative, increasing hazardous waste generation and implied
increased environmental burdens over the next century. In sum,
regardless of what scenario was considered, a uniform view
emerged: sustainability will require formidable efforts to achieve.
E. Consequences
As a precautionary note, the output of the model should
only be viewed as illustrative of possible outcomes and should
not be considered to be a predictor of actual outcomes. Given
the great uncertainties associated with data, availability and
quality, simplifying assumptions, and other considerations, the
model only has a qualitative value. Nonetheless, it has the
potential to serve as one possible means to evaluate need for
redirection of manufacturing ethic focus in regard to sustainable
development objectives.
Overt consequences of realization of the scenarios exam-
ined are that absent measures to the contrary, the cumulative
amount of generated hazardous waste is anticipated to continue
to increase far into the future. In other words:
The worldwide generation of wastes will increase in a
manner that will prove extremely difficult to manage.
Adverse environmental impacts of manufactured products
will not be reduced to a justifiable minimum.
Natural resource usage will be less than optimum.
However, of perhaps greater concern, is the observation
that all of the model scenarios exercised predict cumulative
increases in amounts of hazardous wastes generated in the
future. This outcome implies that in order to achieve sustain-
ability, policies aimed at preventing generation of wastes in the
manufacturing sector, especially hazardous wastes, likely must
be extremely carefully thought out and optimized.
Absent carefully thought out actions taken to ensure waste
prevention and at the same time enable economic growth in an
environmentally sustainable fashion, the above discussions also
suggest the following possible additional implied consequences:
The competitive position of U.S. firms iiu a global
marketplace could be eroded with consequent loss of
marketplace penetration opportunities, lost employ-
ment, etc.; for example, regulatory policies may be
inappropriate: attacking the problem of wastes gener-
ated via mandatory end-of-pipe controls may prevent
the renewal of capital stock needed to acquire cleaner
technologies.
Improvement of standards of living could suffer due to
otherwise avoidable generation of wastes and expendi-
ture of more resources than absolutely necessary per
unit of actions taken to achieve a desired level of
environmental protection.
Absent a strong and predictable regulatory program
that encourages movement towards development and
deployment of cleaner technologies, industry may con-
tinue to opt for more predictable end-of-pipe controls.
Data and information needed to ensure that environ-
mental targets are being met will not be available.
A-3
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2. Analysis of Issues and Mitigating Actions
P. Manufacturing Ethic:
In reaction to concerns about the present situation and in
consideration of consequences that could arise in the event of
occurrence of scenarios described above, an ethic that has seen
growing support is that5 a desired way to manage waste is to
prevent its generation and avoid unnecessary depletion of re-
sources and raw materials while reducing the potential for harm
to human health and the environment to the maximum extent
practicable. Waste prevention can mitigate inadequacies of
treatment, storage, and disposal facilities.
For the manufacturing sector this means evolution and
innovation in respect to the development and utilization of
cleaner technologies and production processes. At present, en-
vironmental technology markets are dominated by end-of-pipe
control technologies.5 It is evident that significant changes in
the environmental technology market will have to take place in
order to shift from a pollution control strategy to a preventive
practical management strategy. Actual implementation of mea-
sures that can bring about evolutionary changes (i.e., implemen-
tation of cleaner technologies and production processes) in the
manufacturing sector of industry has been slow, despite signals
of costs and of potential impacts associated with present waste
generation practices. Response to a growing demand for inte-
grated cleaner technologies and cleaner production processes
depends to large extent on the renewal of capital stock.
This situation prevails at the present time, despite growing
evidence3-'1'5 that pollution abatement and less costly use of
resources are feasible and that clean industry and clean products
can have distinct competitive advantages in regional, national,
and international marketplaces. Moreover, technological evolu-
tion and innovation are considered3-4 the key engines for job
creation and maintenance or improvement of standards of liv-
ing, and economic growth in general. The competitive position
of individual firms depends increasingly on technological change
and adaptation.* In turn, these technological changes affect
environmental quality and the natural resource base.
The following issues2"4 must be addressed in order to de-
velop a sense of the impact of sustainability on a manufacturing
ethic:
• A vision of sustainability must be established;
• A basis to achieve sustainability is needed;
• A means to measure accomplishment of objectives
aimed at achieving sustainability is needed;
• Enforceable policy instruments are needed;
• Costs of achieving sustainability must be allocated in
an agreed-upon manner;
• Economic characteristics of the private sector must be
addressed; and
* Temporal aspects of sustainability must be addressed.
G. A Vision of Sustainability
Analogous to the efforts of other countries,3-4 EPA needs to
develop a vision of sustainability in order to promote clean
production. Of necessity, it must take the lead and negotiate,
publish, administer, implement, and adhere to a workable plan
of what a sustainable economy is meant to be within specified
time frames.
Absent a vision of sustainability, EPA may encounter
difficulties both within the Agency and externally in regard to
prospects for implementation of measures aimed at accomplish-
ing objectives that can enable progress towards achieving sus-
tainable development.
In anticipation that the strategic plan underlying a vision of
sustainability will be based upon the outcomes of detailed
negotiation, it will be necessary for the Agency to organize to
act efficiently in ways that reward integrated staff work, and
address a crucial need, regarding clean technology and produc-
tion for negotiated policy stances based upon interdisciplinary
foundations. Further study is recommended concerning plan
development and its relationship to technology evolution,
competitivity, and sustainability.
H. Issues, Challenges and Cleaner
Technology
The issues raised and that should be addressed must be
viewed in the context of: challenges raised against achieving
sustainability; how actions mounted may impact the manufac-
turing ethic of the nation's industry; and how, in turn, any
redirection of the manufacturing ethic may affect industrial
competitiveness in a global marketplace economy. A harmoni-
ous outcome is clearly desirable. It is evident that industry,
EPA, and others will be challenged to negotiate among them-
selves agreed-upon, workable, and timely arrangements that
lead to demonstrable progress towards achieving sustainable
development and that at the same time can ensure a competitive
marketplace for environmentally responsible firms.
A-4
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In view of challenges posed to the manufacturing sector, it
has been concluded that3-4 the utilization of cleaner technologies
that generate marketable products with concurrent reduction of
environmental impacts and natural resource use to justifiable
minima are of prime importance. The concept of prevention of
waste through the use of cleaner technology is considered to
signal5 minimization of waste at the manufacturing stage by
introducing improvements or changes in manufacturing pro-
cesses and manufacturing technology.
I. Industrial Strategies
The trend5 to date towards inclusion of environmental
considerations in industrial strategies: has been selective, mainly
involving end-of-pipe controls (driven by inappropriate indus-
tries); is installation-size and age dependent (with more progress
at newer facilities); is sensitive to economic conditions in the
marketplace; has little effect on exports to developing countries;
and is influenced by the regulatory environment—regulatory
uncertainty drives risk aversion regarding use of new "un-
proven" technologies.
The role of clean production in enhancing, reducing, or not
affecting competition is important: policies for promotion and
deployment of cleaner products are neither conceivable nor
practical unless closely coordinated with industrial policy in its
entire form;3-4 the process by which firms invest in new tech-
nologies is of key importance. In brief, the prime aim of current
industrial policy seems to be3-4 to promote performance, im-
prove labor productivity, and increase the value added (wages
paid plus profit before interest and depreciation) of as many
enterprises as possible, i.e., to improve their overall competi-
tiveness.
Process changes by a firm usually demand major capital
investments and cannot be undertaken "abruptly"; they are
instead undertaken only after carefully considering whether
investment, installation, and exploitation of new technology
will improve the competitivity of the firm in the marketplace. In
consequence, such changes are evolutionary, and there is doubt3-4
as to whether process changes can or should be mandated by
regulatory means.
In regard to marketplace competitiveness,7 successful imple-
mentation of pollution prevention measures is critically related
to industrial profitability—firms are unlikely to pursue preven-
tive measures if profits are not demonstrable at the level of
investment and industrial management decisions.
J. Life Cycle Management Strategies
The impact of striving to achieve sustainability on a manu-
facturing ethic will be realized through private sector initiatives
and those of international, national, and regional governments.
With respect to EPA this may mean the adoption of policies that
move the manufacturing sector in a direction that supports the
goal of achieving sustainability. Given the increasing
globalization of the marketplace, it would not be surprising if in
the long term many of the policy options ultimately adopted by
the Agency are in fact somewhat global in aspect. In view of the
commonality of long-term sustainability objectives, this has
lead to proposals2'4 that consumer products should be fabricated
and placed on the market subject to an integrated life-cycle
approach justified by environmentally sound and efficient man-
agement principles.
In order to address these proposals a need exists for3-4
consumer products to be fabricated and placed onto the market
subject to an integrated life-cycle management approach that
aims to:
• minimize energy use/(unit of output).
• optimize efficiency of natural resources use.
• avoid, minimize, remove, and replace inherently toxic,
corrosive, flammable and/or otherwise potentially harm-
ful components.
• ensure that in an environmentally sound manner, dis-
carded final products can be reused, reclaimed, re-
cycled, or subjected to resource recovery.
Measures aimed at understanding the potential use of cleaner
technologies for preventing waste generation throughout the
life cycle of a product, inclusive of the manufacturing process,
have been and are being encouraged.2-4-5-8 However, consensus
concerning procedure for life cycle analysis has not been firmly
established. More data are needed in order to understand pos-
sible cost benefits of use of cleaner technologies.
K. Materials Considerations
Opportunities for employment of cleaner technologies that
can lead to cleaner production processes might be examined
within the context of materials used in production processes.
The choice of materials used in manufacturing activities is
strongly influenced2 by commodity prices or ease of transfor-
mation in manufacturing.
The need for engineering research aimed at development
and use of cleaner technologies, processes, and materials has
been advocated9 with the encouragement that general principles
must guide the search for substitutes for materials with poten-
tially important environmental effects. Historic examples sug-
gest clear benefits of striving for cleaner technologies, production
processes, and materials. It has been estimated that if substitu-
tion of lead by polyethylene for cable sheathing had not taken
place, consumption of lead by AT&T alone might have reached
a billion pounds per year.10
L. Regulatory Issues
It has been suggested that in the private sector,4 (if less than
required by current regulation) the lowest release levels attained
by the most progressive firms should become the new standard
for all firms in that sector after some 'reasonable' period. It is
argued that this approach can encourage innovation, since firms
seeking to 'set the standard' and increase their competitivity
would invest in cleaner production processes to achieve this
goal—environmental performance would be directly related to
competition (competition-based standard setting) just as price,
quality, performance, reputation, etc., are.
Sectors of the industrial community that might otherwise
be regulated may voluntarily act to achieve desired environ-
mental goals. Voluntary agreements are driven, for example, by
public and political pressure, actions taken by competitors in
international markets, or that of tough and enforced laws and
A-5
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regulations. Voluntary industry agreements or initiatives can
have a measurable effect on potential environmental impacts.
Development5 of the world market for clean technology
and pollution abatement equipment over the past decade has
been largely driven by strong regulations. Countries with the
most stringent environmental legislation have taken an early
lead in the development of environmental technology and are
leading exporters.2'5
Despite the potential benefits of cleaner technologies rela-
tive to end-of-pipe treatment, their use has been relatively
limited due to market and regulatory failures: existing markets
for clean technologies are perceived to be relatively small; the
availability of cleaner technologies is limited in some areas;
higher initial capital costs may be an inhibiting factor; risks and
uncertainties are associated with cleaner technologies; manu-
facturers of end-of-pipe control technologies present obstacles
to marketplace entry; and inappropriate regulations encourage
use of end-of-pipe treatment systems.2'5
As regulatory stance can impact costs of implementing
cleaner technologies, this too is an issue that must be addressed.
Currently, two forms of regulatory style towards industrial
sector pollution sources predominate:3-4 (1) 'specified' compli-
ance, which relies on literally interpreted, formal precise and
specific rules, tends towards regulatory uniformity, and often is
perceived as adversarial by the regulated community; and (2)
'negotiated* compliance, which emphasizes reliance upon gen-
eral, flexible guidelines, bargaining, allowance for situational
non-uniformities in application of regulations, and an accom-
modative stance toward the regulated community.
The specified compliance style is reported3-4 to be fairly
efficient for implementing regulations and establishing rapid
maximization of compliance. However, this style antagonizes
the regulated community (which favors flexibility in a manner
that offers advantages over competitors) and leads to high
compliance costs. This style favors end-of-pipe control tech-
nologies in order to meet standards and in the long term is
counterproductive: the purchase of end-of-pipe technologies
depletes capital that otherwise could be committed for cleaner
production technologies. Further progress involving implemen-
tation of cleaner technologies may require an alternative regula-
tory 'negotiated compliance' approach inclusive of credible
environmental quality targets, which are specific, monitorable,
and verifiable.
It appears that future progress aimed at achieving sustain-
ability depends on utilization of cleaner production technology
and development of cleaner products2'5 implemented in part
through regulations based upon negotiated compliance. The
development and use of a negotiated compliance model would
be through a systematic consultative and decision-making pro-
cedure4 involving all parties of interest and would emphasize
protection of all environmental media through accomplishment
of a negotiated set of environmental objectives, which if phased
in over a period of time might allow capital stock investments
with long lifetimes to be made rationally.3-4
The negotiated compliance model is seen as a means to
encourage industry to move toward:3-4
• in-process recycling, reuse, or recovery.
• changing segments of the productive process itself.
• substituting inputs, e.g., water-based paints instead of
solvent-based.
• alteration of the end product itself, e.g., reduction of
mercury in batteries while still meeting electrochemi-
cal requirements.
M. Risk and Liability Issues
The emergence of new materials, increased materials com-
plexity, and an increased extent of dispersion and diffusion of
many different products gives rise to increased uncertainties
regarding the nature of risks and of consequent liability. Risk
impacts generally are becoming more complex, more diffused,
and more uncertain.
It is reported3-4 that there is a growing trend toward imposi-
tion of strict liability for damage due to environmental causes
and that uncertainties in the long-term concerning liability
limits for products and waste may catalyze industry action
toward adoption and deployment of cleaner technologies with
their attendant advantages, e.g., less hazardous emissions, less
toxic components, etc. In other words, concerns about liability
may prove to be a strong motivator for clean production owing
to risk aversion of investors towards firms whose practices may
create unwanted or avoidable liabilities. On the other hand,3-4
small- or medium-sized firms may see clean technologies as
riskier investments (not 'proven' technology) and opt for end-
of-pipe technology in strict liability situations.
N. Economic Instruments
Economic instruments can be used3-4 to:
• correct imbalances that distort markets, e.g., proper
scarcity pricing of natural resources.
• correct failures, e.g., use of the environment as a 'free'
dumping ground.
• ensure that public structural projects, such as road
building, pay their full environmental costs.
Without comment concerning their desirability, numerous
economic instruments can be applied towards accomplishing
cleaner technology objectives, e.g., taxes, subsidies, user fees,
tradeable use rights, and time. In some instances, an issue to be
further addressed [e.g., through careful examination, testing,
and evaluation] is uncertainty concerning the actual efficiency
of various economic instruments in the marketplace. It has,
however, been reported2'5 that subsidies or perverse incentives
(e.g., depletion allowances, agricultural production, and cheap
water) have markedly resulted in environmentally damaging
practices. Sole dependence upon economic instruments may not
go far in achieving sustainability goals owing largely to the
volatility of demand and the elasticity of demand to prices of
differing sectors.3-4
Although time will be needed before the results can be fully
evaluated, success using economic incentives has depended
upon the discounted cash flow cost of correcting an environ-
mental problem being lower over time than proposed charges
. for continuing undesired behavior.3-4
A-6
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O. Competitive Equity Issues
The ability of an individual company to deploy cleaner
production technologies is seen to depend on:4
• nature of the firm's industrial process
• size and structure of the firm
• attitudes and opinions affecting operation of the firm
• information available to the firm
• assets available for cleaner production technologies
• current regulations and their enforcement
Complaints have been voiced3-4 that monetary costs of
environmental requirements are not uniform for certain sectors
small- or medium-sized enterprises, or even for some countries
as compared to others—certain firms argue that their inherent
competitivity is harmed by means of actions beyond their
control.
One recommendation is that:3 "To achieve a "level playing
field would require governments to perform very precise studies
of the average cost differentials and to fashion policies aimed at
cutting any imbalances while at the same time tilting towards
cleaner production technologies. In other words, once such
policies were in force, by choosing cleaner production tech-
nologies, a firm could act to achieve a level playing field- by not
choosing such technologies, a firm might be at a disadvantage
us., not receive tax relief, suffer surcharges, or whatever other
financial incentives or disincentives were associated with the
policy."
P. Data, Indicators and Information
Transfer
The Agency must evaluate its readiness to provide ad-
equate funding over time in order to encourage clean produc-
tion. It will be essential that research efforts should be
momtorable and monitored continuously, with corrective ad-
justments as needed.
EPA must recognize that the public, to the extent provided
with reliable information concerning benefits of clean produc-
tion technologies, may become a more proactive advocate of
their siting, deployment, and use. For comparison purposes this
information base can be supplemented with information per-
taining to emissions inventories of existing technologies.
A recent report3 indicates that: "Requirements for public
disclosure of industry information about pollutants generated
especially toxic chemical emissions, have been cited as aii
effective stimulus to industry waste reduction programmes
otten involving identification and use of cleaner production In
the U.S., for example, public reporting of releases of toxic
contaminants as required by law resulted in several major
companies announcing drastic toxic waste reduction programmes
entailing a variety of measures including cleaner production
technologies."
Information transfer and training assistance are considered
to be worthwhile undertakings in response to business concerns
and the desire to foster utilization of cleaner production tech-
nologies.
While industry leaders consider product quality issues to be
a driving force in use of cleaner technologies, producers do not
evidently hold a widespread belief that eco-labelling of prod-
ucts significantly influences the development and use of cleaner
production technologies.3-4
There seems to tie general agreement that in order to
evaluate progress towards achieving sustainability, measurable
indicators must be developed.
An approach that has been3-4 recommended is use of an
environmental auditing statement based on 'generally accepted
environmental auditing procedures' (GAEAP), analogous to
generally accepted accounting procedures' used by auditors in
construction of financial statements found in annual reports of
corporations. While, policy could require report of feedstock
use, energy consumption, various types of releases, etc in
terms of product sent to market, uniformity of reporting of
certain outcomes of a firm's auditing process should be:3
"balanced against the need to allow a firm's capital
investment decisions to rely on its auditing process in
order to help make confidential business choices lead-
ing to clean production."
The overall objective of information management should
be to foster good environmental performance and encourage
tirms to: •
• invest in production facilities that minimize, to the
extent practicable, the energy, raw materials, and re-
leases per unit of output sent to market
• maintain these ifacilities properly
• compete to improve these production facilities in order
to improve the state of the art for clean production of
whatever outputs are to be marketed
• minimize the use of inherently hazardous substances
in marketable outputs or as intermediates
Undoubtedly, additional discussions, study, and testing
concerning a variety of issues (e.g., disclosure required of
industry and its costs and benefits) are needed in regard to
™Vr>' j?3S been recommended that main categories of a
OAhAP auditing process in a manufacturing sector firm could
include: •
• environmental expertise and awareness
• corporate environmental policy and procedures
• knowledge of applicable laws, regulations, and gov-
ernment inspection and enforcement approaches
• internal good housekeeping audits
• compliance checks audits (compliance with existing
rules) 6
• community outreach and awareness and preparedness
for emergencies at local level
• release reduction/minimization per unit of product sent
to market and recovery of these assets
• training of managers and internal auditors
A-7
-------
• involvementof the labourforce as an active participant
• assessment of opportunities to implement technologies
to cut materials, energy, and releases per unit of prod-
uct sent to market
. assessment of products sent to market for their poten-
tial effect on humans and/or the environment
• reporting to corporate officers
• reporting to stockholders and/or the public
Q. Encouraging Cleaner Production
In its report, Government Policy Options to Encourage
Cleaner Production and Products in the 1990s, the OECD
recommended propositions for encouraging the development
and deployment of clean production:3
"Countries should move toward developing a complex
policy approach [plan] that should include an agreed
and reproducible means to measure the state of the
environment and natural resources base, identify po-
tential and real sources of degradation, and monitor
these parameters regularly.
Information obtained from monitoring and auditing
activities of a firm can encourage clean production.
The negotiated compliance model of regulations is
likely to be better at promoting cleaner production than
is the enforced compliance model.
Environmental goals could be implemented such that
the time to achieve them is negotiated with the regula-
tory community.
There needs to be an agreed upon and stable mecha-
nism for measuring and reviewing the efforts of the
regulatory approaches since regulatory design is nei-
ther perfect nor can regulations adjust themselves to
new events and situations.
In order to promote clean production, direct tax con-
cessions, accelerated depreciation, and subsidies for
end-of-pipe controls should be phased out fairly rap-
idly.
When cleaner production technologies and methods
are proposed as part of a siting or licensing procedure,
the time for granting or denying approval should be
limited to some reasonable value.
Careful application of economic tools can be used to
'level the playing' field.
Imposition of strict and joint liability for environmen-
tal damage can be a very strong motivator for clean
production.
In addition to funds directed at manufacturing sectors,
more funds should be directed at how cleaner tech-
nologies can be implemented in the agricultural and
transport sectors.
A steady campaign to transfer information indicating
the virtues of preventive environmental management
to the public (via schools, news media, industry
circulars, etc.) should be established.
It is desirable to establish 'hot-lines' to provide infor-
mation regarding cleaner production technologies.
Information about environmental and natural resources
issues should be introduced into the curricula of educa-
tional establishments at all levels from elementary to
university.
Governments should examine procurement practices
and requirements to ensure that unintended impedi-
ments to clean production are eliminated and that
purchasing decisions and requirements are designed to
encourage cleaner technologies and products."
Based on the above discussions, and in a manner that
complements actions proposed elsewhere, EPA could seek to
foster any or all of the following recently recommended options
that support development and deployment of cleaner production
technologies:3-4
Whatever negotiated vision of sustainability is estab-
lished, it must be measurable according to some agreed
upon basis and applied to clearly identified environ-
mental indicators of progress.
The Agency should cooperate to ensure that near- and
long-term plans for the economy should incorporate
reasonable time-frames and goals for achieving
sustainability.
Means should be available to identify any 'new' envi-
ronmental problems that may emerge.
Milestones and a timetable for achieving sustainability
are needed.
A regulatory mechanism could be deployed that favors
cleaner production technologies over end-of-pipe solu-
tions.
Existing economic incentives that favor end-of-pipe
solutions over cleaner production technologies could
be eliminated and those that promote development and
deployment of cleaner production technologies could
be established and implemented.
The Agency could seek to foster the development and
promote adoption of generally accepted environmental
auditing procedures that both allow firms to retain
some auditing information as confidential and maxi-
mize chances of firms choosing cleaner production
technologies in investment decisions.
In some specific instances, the Agency could seek to
cooperate with other governments in development of
consensus approaches to cost effectively attack prob-
lems.
Mechanisms are needed to engage both the regulated
community and other 'stakeholders' in negotiating
approaches aimed at specific problems.
Voluntary agreements could be encouraged where fea-
sible.
A-8
-------
Encourage most of the regulated community to per-
form better than required, since 'best performance'
might eventually be taken as a general standard thus
giving the firm that achieves it first a competitive
boost.
Specialized approaches aimed at meeting the needs of
small- and medium-sized enterprises may be advis-
able.
Use of a regular means to monitor progress and report
results to the public.
Enforcement of liability laws for environmental dam-
ages.
A strong, stable mechanism for regulatory review and,
when needed, to initiated regulatory reform.
Regular use of information mechanisms to inform the
public about environmental risks and promote favor-
able public opinion concerning cleaner production tech-
nologies.
Incorporation of cleaner production technology con-
cepts into educational programs at all levels of educa-
tion.
Employment of means to favor demand for cleaner
products to the extent practicable.
Judicious use of economic instruments to achieve a
level playing field.
Proactive research and development concerning cleaner
production technologies.
If possible, promotion of life-cycle costing for all
capital cost allocations.
Removal of government impediments to development
and deployment of cleaner production technologies.
Government procurement initiatives that promote
cleaner production technologies and products.
Support for technology transfer mechanisms to stimu-
late utilization of cleaner production technologies in
the U.S. and abroad.
R. References
1 World Commission on Environment and Develop-
ment, Our Common Future (Oxford University Press
Oxford, 1987).
2 T. Jackson (Editor), Cleaner Production Strategies
[Preface], Stockholm Environment Institute, Lewis
Publishers, London (1993); (a) [Chapter 6] Hazardous
Futures.
3 OECD, Government Policy Options to Encourage
Cleaner Production and Products in the 1990s, OCDE/
GE(92)127, Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris
CEDEX 16, France (1992).
4 H. Yakowitz and R. Hanmer, "Policy Options—En-
couraging Cleaner Production in the 1990s," In: T.
Jackson (Editor) Cleaner Production Strategies,
Stockholm Environment Institute, Lewis Publishers,
London (1993).
5 OECD, The State of the Environment, OECD (Paris,
1991).
6 U.S. EPA, Environmental Investments: The Cost of a
Clean Environment, Washington, D.C. (1990).
7 M. Dorfman, A. White, M. Becker and T. Jackson,
"Profiting from Pollution Prevention, In: T. Jackson
(Editor), Clean Production Strategies, Stockholm En-
vironment Institute, Lewis Publishers, London (1993).
8 L. Baas, H. Hofman, D. Huisingh, J. Huisingh, P.
Koppert and F. Neumann, Protection of the North Sea:
Time for Clean Production, Erasmus Center fpr Envi-
ronmental Studies, Erasmus University, Rotterdam
(1990).
9 Sheldon K. Friedlander, "Environmental Issues: Im-
plications for Engineering Design and Education," In:
Technology and Environment, J. Ausubel and H.
Sladovich (Editors), National Academy Press, Wash-
ington, D.C. (1989).
10 J.H. Ausubel,, "Regularities in Technological Develop-
ment: An Environmental View," In: Technology and
Environment, J. Ausubel and H. Sladovich (Editors),
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. (1989), p.
70.
A-9
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Appendix B
Redevelopment of Industrial Sites and Remediated Land
Societal Pressures for the
Redevelopment of Industrial Sites and Remediated Land
by
Dr. Hilary I. Inyang, President
Geoenvironmental Design Research, Inc..
Fairfax, VA
and
Ms. Lynne Preslo, R.G.
Vice President
IGF Kaiser Engineer
Oakland, CA
Prepared for
Futures Project Report
Environmental Engineering Committee
Science Advisory Board
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
-------
-------
A. Global Goal
EPA is primarily responsible for developing technical and
regulatory schemes for protecting human health and the envi-
ronment. During the past fifteen years, the Agency has orches-
trated efforts to identify and mitigate both environmental and
human health risks. With all other factors held constant the
potential for environmental and human health damages is di-
rectly proportional to the level of exposure to stressors. Conse-
quently, the Agency has justifiably considered exposure
assessment as an important element of risk assessment.
The potential exposure of each segment of the U.S. popula-
tion to undesirable environmental stressors is location-specific
Therefore, the rate of growth and spatial distribution of popula-
tion within a given region have indirect but profound influences
on human and environmental exposure to various sources of
pollutants. The rate of change and distribution pattern on popu-
lation depend on a host of socioeconomic factors, the interac-
tions of which change dynamically with time. A deep
appreciation of the relationships between socioeconomic fac-
tors and environmental stress factors, the probable future bounds
for the variability of these relationships, and the trend of evolu-
tion of environmental control technologies will enable the
Agency to develop appropriate schemes for mitigating risk.
The scarcity and high cost of land in urban areas coupled
with increasing urbanization of the U.S. population will in-
crease the pressure to redevelop abandoned industrial sites and
remediated land. Within the next thirty years, one of the follow-
ing scenarios is likely to develop in metropolitan areas.
• Increase in the population density of suburban centers
and greener sites at the expense of the proximal inner
city areas..
• Retention of large populations by inner city areas with
only moderate increases in the population of suburban
areas.
The occurrence of any of these two scenarios will result in
the scarcity of land within and/or near metropolitan centers
Consequently, many of the abandoned industrial sites and
remediated land that are presently fallow due to real or per-
ceived risks and liability will likely be developed. The interac-
tions of the driving factors for site redevelopment in both
scenarios are largely different although there are some common
elements. The driving factors include prospective increase in
profits to site developers, advances in site remediation technol-
ogy, population increase, socioeconomic trade-offs, and in-
crease in the magnitude of liability risk acceptable to developers
and buyers as land scarcity drives up housing costs. EPA needs
to develop proactive schemes to address both the policy and
technical issues that will attend this category of land recycling.
B. Background on Site Inventory
There is an exceedingly large number of contaminated sites
in the U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO) (1993a)
estimates that 3,400 facilities out of about 4,300 in the RCRA
universe may be releasing waste into the environment The
Department of Defense (DOD) controls about 10,924 active
hazardous waste sites at more than 1,800 domestic military
installations in the U.S. (Sidel, 1993). Table B-l (Chu et al
1992) shows the distribution of 7,150 other military sites by
state of location. A component of the comprehensive plan of the
DOD Installation Restoration Program is the redevelopment of
remediated sites. GAO (1993b) reports that the U.S Depart-
ment of Energy (DOE) estimates that it may close about 1 700
facilities within the next 30 years. Presently, the DOE has
approximately 4,000 sites to remediate, and it is also estimated
that more than 250,000 underground storage tank sites presently
need to be cleaned up (HMCRI, 1993). Briefing statements
released by EPA (1991b) indicated that its Superfund Program
has evaluated 31,000 sites out of a total universe that could
exceed 50,000. Between 250 and 300 of these sites require
remedial actions each year.
In addition to the sites mentioned above, several former
industrial sites are located in metropolitan areas. In many cases
the businesses that once occupied them have left for other
regions that may have better economic prospects. In some
cases, these businesses operated outdated industrial plants and
could not meet pollutant emission requirements of sensitive
highly populated areas (e.g., the Los Angeles Basin).
Adequate data collection on the proximity of abandoned
and remediated sites to metropolitan areas has not been con-
ducted by appropriate agencies. Nevertheless, it is generally
observed that most industrial cities in the northern region of the
U.S. and some southern and western cities have very high
concentrations of abandoned sites. These cities include Chi-
cago, Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Pitts-
burgh, New Orleans, Miami, Los Angeles, and smaller cities
such as Omaha, Fargo, and Des Moines. It is a fair assumption
that more than 90% of the leaking underground storage tank
sites that will be remediated are located within metropolitan
areas. There is a high probability that the redevelopment of a
significant proportion of the different categories of sites dis-
cussed above will become very attractive within the next thirty
years. Among the structures that will be built on such sites are
residential houses, parking garages, warehouses, tunnels road-
ways, monuments and office buildings.
C. Scenarios!
In Scenario 1, inner city dwellers will migrate to suburban
areas and greener sites. The driving factors for this scenario are
infrastructure decay in inner city areas, increase in crime rate
that may correspond with higher unemployment rates in city
centers, and greater availability of white-collar employment
opportunities in city suburbs. In essence, this scenario hinges on
the justifiable assumption that the middle class, which has the
luxury of means, will flee the inner city areas to greener
pastures. The capability to flee undesirable conditions will
determine the population zonation pattern envisaged in Sce-
nario 1. The most probable consequences of this scenario are
itemized below.
• Equilibration of population densities over large re-
gional areas. :
• Decrease in the tax base of inner cities as they retain
residents that are mostly within the low income bracket.
• Attraction of cottage industries to inner cities will
occur due to new incentives that will be provided by
city administrators. These industries will need space
for facilities and, consequently, former industrial sites
B-1
-------
Table B-1. Inventory of Formerly Used De
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Number of
Sites
130
547
182
91
847
97
35
29
20
518
101
378
66
72
69
35
119
24
73
97
74
233
138
63
132
85
State
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Territories
Total
Number of
Sites
106
105
43
26
122
226
268
94
67
82
87
123
110
56
100
92
63
323
34
13
172
284
23
67
70
139
7,150
and remediated land will become prime redevelop-
ment targets.
• Land will also become scarce and expensive in subur-
ban areas, in consistence with increased demand that
will result from the influx of new residents.
In Scenario 2, the population of inner cities will increase
excessively while the suburbs experience only moderate popu-
lation increases. The driving forces for this scenario are high
levels of immigration and high birth rate of population seg-
ments in the low income bracket. These new residents will
initially prefer to settle in large urban centers, where unskilled
labor is still in high demand relative to rural and suburban areas.
Also, it is generally believed that ethnic ties to earlier immi-
grants to U.S. cities promote the congregation of new immi-
grants in the inner cities. Despite the expected increase in the
population of inner cities, the mobility of residents to the
suburbs in reasonably large numbers could be impeded by their
lack of white-collar skill and financial resources. This scenario
is likely to produce the following consequences within the next
30 years.
• A population imbalance in favor of inner city areas in
large metropolitan areas.
• Socioeconomic and environmental pressures will force
city planning units of metropolitan governments to
seek novel ways of maximizing the use of central
urban space, including former industrial sites.
. Developers will capitalize on the exceedingly high
demand for housing business centers, and perhaps
light industrial facilities in central urban areas by
purchasing and redeveloping former industrial sites
and remediated/contaminated land.
• Increased utilization of underground space in areas of
high population density.
The two scenarios that are discussed in the preceding
paragraphs will each promote the redevelopment of abandoned
industrial sites and other sites that are presently classified as
being contaminated. However, the interactions among the sig-
nificant driving factors discussed in Section D are largely
different. An appreciation of these factors is a requirement for
the development of adequate schemes to respond to policy and
technological needs.
B-2
-------
D. Major Driving Factors for Land
Redevelopment
The major driving factors for land redevelopment are popu-
lation increase, socioeconomic trade-offs, legal liability and
risk acceptability, and advances in technology.
D-1. Population Increase
The total population of the U.S., as of August 1, 1993, is
estimated by the Census Bureau (1993a) at 258,479,000. This
population represents a 3.7% increase over the 1980 estimate by
the same Bureau. The middle series projection (Census Bureau,
1993b) indicates that the U.S. population will increase by 50%
from about 255 million in 1992 to 383 million by the year 2050.
This is based on assumptions of 2.1 births per woman, an
average life expectancy of 82.1 years by 2050, and an annual
net immigration of 880,000. The lowest series estimate for the
year 2030, the time frame that corresponds reasonably to the
Futures Project analysis period, is 287 million. This is based on
assumptions of 1.8 births per woman, an average life expect-
ancy of 75.3 years, and an annual net immigration of 350,000.
Estimates by the United Nations (1985) show that in 1980,
only 15.8 percent of the global population resided in cities of 4
million and above. By the year 2025, about 24.5% of the global
population will reside in megacities. Within our context, each
megacity comprises the inner city and the suburbs. Population
distribution data (Census Bureau, 1993c) indicate that out of a
total U.S. population of about 249 million in 1990,78.8 million
and 79.4 million resided in central urban and urban fringes
(comparable to suburbs), respectively. Although future urban-
ization rates are expected to be higher in the developing coun-
tries than in the U.S., even moderate influx of new residents into
metropolitan areas and high birth rates of people who reside in
those areas are likely to cause acute scarcity of urban space in
most cities.
It should be noted that the population will not necessarily
increase in all U.S. cities. Furthermore, the spatial distribution
of population within each metropolitan area (conglomerated
cities and suburbs) is a more relevant parameter than the popu-
lation itself, to the two scenarios outlined above. In Table B-2,
data for some very large U.S. cities indicate average annual
population growth rates that range from 0.2% for Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania, to 3.33% for Phoenix, Arizona. In Scenario 1, it
is envisaged that for most U.S. cities, large segments of the city
population will move to suburbs and other lower density areas
within the metropolitan areas.
The resulting spatial zonation pattern of population will
vary from pockets of affluence dispersed within urban blight to
concentric rings in which the segments with longer radii are
inhabited by residents with better economic resources. New
York represents the former, and Minneapolis exemplifies the
latter. Essentially, the suburbs and cleaner enclaves within
metropolitan areas will need land for both residential and busi-
ness real estate, a situation that will increase the scarcity and
cost of land. A direct consequence will be an increase in the
pressure for the redevelopment of the increasing number of
brown sites in the suburbs. Also, Scenario 1 will eventually lead
to the redevelopment of abandoned and remediated sites even in
the inner city areas that may experience significant population
flight.
In Scenario 2, the inner cities will retain larger segments of
the projected increases in population. This situation could be
promoted by improvements in the implementation of socioeco-
nomic schemes such as affordable housing, environmental sani-
tation, crime control, and underground space development. The
enhancement of the desirability of residing in city core areas
will increase the demand for, and costs of, real estate dramati-
cally. Even in the absence of this factor, new immigrants are
likely to be trapped in inner city areas (for example, South
Central and East Lost Angeles) for a number of years for
socioeconomic reasons. The immigration rate, to which refer-
ence is made above, will sustain high population densities in
city cores thereby building pressure for the redevelopment of
abandoned sites. In the scenario, the lower density of population
in the suburbs may increase the attractiveness of the latter sites
for new industrial plants, as exemplified by present-day Okla-
homa City and Milwaukee. In Scenario 2, this spatial model
will become more ubiquitous.
D-2. Socioeconomic Trade-Offs
Market forces will play a significant role in land redevelop-
ment in urban areas. Construction and industrial activities often
effect immediate impacts on employment rates. City planners
may be inclined to weigh employment goals against potential
environmental concerns. For private developers, zoning and tax
concessions, which could be the instruments of enticement,
could make the redevelopment of former industrial sites attrac-
tive. The high rates of housing and real estate development in
U.S. cities relative to available space will promote this type of
land recycling. Data presented in Table B-2 show 1992 housing
and population data compiled from information gathered by
ULI (1993) for some major U.S. cities. The number of new
housing units built in 1992 exceeded 20,000 in some U.S. cities.
While these data do not show housing imbalance in favor of
inner cities, it is fair to assume that increases in housing and real
estate development will translate to the development of brown
sites in most parts of cities owing to the finite number of regular
sites available.
Redevelopment activities usually revitalize industries such
as those in construction, insurance, hardware sales, and road
construction. Construction activities are generally labor-inten-
sive and thus can provide employment for a large number of
laborers. Municipal governments will continue to cherish in-
creases in construction activities because the latter can reduce
unemployment rates. Interestingly, Table B-l shows that Cali-
fornia has the highest number of reclaimable military sites.
California also has very high unemployment rates. The ex-
pected translation of this situation to many regional cities of the
U.S. will constrain municipal governments to provide incen-
tives to developers in schemes constructed to reduce unemploy-
ment in inner city areas. Incentives will most likely be highest
for the development of abandoned industrial sites. This is
particularly likely in Scenario 1, which involves the flight of
manufacturers and economically buoyant persons to the sub-
urbs or richer city enclaves. Tax breaks constitute an example of
an incentive that municipal governments will use to arrest the
flight of companies and attract new companies and residents.
These schemes imply that space will become scarce again,
leading to the development of most available spaces.
B-3
-------
Tabla B-2. Population and Housing Data lor 1992 for Some Major U.S. Cities (compiled from ULI, 1993)
City
Atlanta, GA
Chicago, IL
Columbus, OH
Detroit, Ml
Jacksonville, FL
Miami, FL
Nashville, TN
New York, NY
Philadelphia, PA
Pittsburgh, PA
Washington, DC
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TX
Los Angeles, CA
Phoenix, AZ
St. Louis, MO
San Francisco, CA
Seattle, WA
1992
(Thousands)
2,932.0
7,400.0
1,418.2
4,361.2
935.0
1,993.8
1,028.0
7,388.5
4,916.6
2.322.2
4,074.0
4,042.6
3,900.0
9,087.0
2,236.0
2,452.0
3,786.0
2,888.4
Population
Average Annual Growth
1980-92
(Percent)
2.70
0.30
1.10
0.20
2.20
1.72
1.60
0.40
0.30
0.20
1.90
2.72
1.70
1.60
3.33
0.26
1.30
2.10
1992 Housing
Number of Units
(Thousands)
1,216.0
—
577.3
1,725.4
396.5
790.7
233.2
2,986.3
1,939.4
960.0
1,597.0
1 ,686.6
1,546.7
3,221.2
836.4
1,025.2
1,546.1
1,194.4
Data
New Units
in 1992
(Thousands)
26.0
24.2
8.4
14.7
5.8
8.0
1.9
2.4
12.3
5.4
21.9
20.8
18.8
11.3
17.7
5.3
8.9
26.4
Incidentally, most major cities in the U.S. are currently
initiating urban infrastructure improvement projects. One of the
important elements of these plans is the attraction of manufac-
turing companies, most of which usually need considerable
space for plants and offices. One such city is Detroit, Michigan.
In addition, the current U.S. Administration plans to develop
"enterprise zones" in inner city areas. The President's Council
on Sustainable Development (SCTF, 1993) is currently assess-
ing options for promoting sustainable reuse of abandoned in-
dustrial sites, closed military bases and other government
property. These options include changes in zoning codes and
regulations, lending and insurance practices, and future liability
responsibility.
Economic considerations have already made California's
Abandoned Site Project management team consider contami-
nated site redevelopment as a viable option in cases that incor-
porate appropriate schemes to mitigate human health risks.
Anderson and Hatayama (1988) describe plans to redevelop a
Bethlehem Steel Company site in South San Francisco, and a
Hercules Powder Company Site in Hercules, both in California.
A number of other case-histories in the U.S. are described by
EPA (1986). The locations, characteristics and post-redevelop-
ment land use of some of these sites are presented in Table B-3.
Within the next thirty years, this practice will become wide-
spread in the U.S., in conformity with the trend in European
countries (particularly Britain), where land is very scarce in
metropolitan areas.
D-3. Legal Liability and Risk Acceptability
Currently, liability concerns discourage potential develop-
ers from purchasing contaminated land for subsequent redevel-
opment. Zimmerman (1992) reports that numerous court
decisions have supported laws that hold purchasers of contami-
nated property liable for incidents of contamination regardless
of whether or not environmental problems stem from prior use
of such properties by previous owners. Potential developers are
currently cautious about acquiring contaminated property be-
cause commercial general liability insurance policies that they
hold contain exclusion clauses for damage from such pollution
incidents. Some states have enacted legislation (Greenthal and
Millspaugh, 1988), exemplified by New Jersey's Environmen-
tal Cleanup Responsibility Act, which outlaws the transfer 6f
contaminated property. In most other states, developers can
purchase contaminated property and assume the associated
liability risks. In a discussion of this issue, McGregor (1988)
notes that potential developers could consider deducting cleanup
costs from the sale price of properties during the negotiation
stage.
The liability concerns that currently impede the transfer
and redevelopment of former industrial sites and other types of
contaminated land, may wane significantly within the next
B-4
-------
-------
thirty years. There are some indicators that changes in regula-
tory climate will favor land redevelopment. As reported in
Inside EPA (1993), some Congressional members have contem-
plated the development of a Superfund Reauthorization bill that
will include regulatory support for the redevelopment of urban
industrial sites. The U.S. Supreme Court sided recently (Schulte,
1993) with a South Carolina businessman against the State of
South Carolina in an environment-related litigation over his
right to determine the beneficial land use for his property.
Recently, the State House of Pennsylvania passed two bills
aimed at promoting the redevelopment of abandoned sites. In
one of the bills, legislators seek to limit liability for purchasers
of former industrial sites. The second bill would limit environ-
mental liability for development agencies that provide loans to
developers of abandoned properties. The Pennsylvania Senate.
is considering other bills that would exempt candidate sites
from stringent cleanup specifications and provide grants for
cleanup of industrial sites, respectively. In general, the legal
liability climate is changing in favor of site redevelopment.
D-4. Advances in Technology
It has not been possible to attain desirable cleanup stan-
dards in a cost-effective manner at many contaminated sites.
For sites at which groundwater is contaminated, pump-and-treat
schemes are most often used in remediation. Unfortunately,
there is a limitation on the level to which a site can be cleaned
up using technologies that are based on the removal of contami-
nants by hydraulic pressure differential. Other cleanup tech-
nologies such as electrokinetics, steam flushing and
surfactant-enhanced soil washing have been proven to be ad-
equate only in bench-scale studies and controlled field experi-
ments. Federal regulations for site remediation tend to promote
the implementation of "best available technology," most of
which are very new. Residual concentrations that may remain at
prospective sites for redevelopment are still of concern to
developers and potential owners. Long-term exposure of hous-
ing residents to residual contaminants is still a major concern
even if such a concern is not supported by exposure assessments
and lexicological evidence. Given the current regulatory cli-
mate and available technology, perfect cleanup is not achiev-
able; thus, a combination of risk management and remedial
technology management should be employed in the redevelop-
ment of land for beneficial uses.
Contaminant cleanup technologies: are evolving at a rapid
enough pace to give credence to the assumption that within the
next thirty years it will be possible to remove residual concen-
trations of contaminants cost-effectively. This implies that at a
large number of sites, the post-cleanup risk assessments will
indicate potential human exposures that are low enough to
support the redevelopment of the sites concerned. It is reason-
able to expect that in thirty years, the fear factor will dissipate
substantially, in response to improvements in public education
and awareness on environmental issues.
Urban cores and suburbs will be linked by high speed
transportation within the next few decades. This situation will
follow the trend set by Japan in response to high urban popula-
tion. It will be possible for residents of inner city areas to work
in far-flung places and vice-versa. This development is likely to
favor Scenario 2. A large segment of the city population will
prefer to reside where social services are plentiful but commute
to work in the suburbs and beyond. A plausible argument
can be made to support the contrary: computer information
systems will advance to the extent that wherever one lives,
social services will be available. However, the affordability
factor and the desirability of ethnic community support
systems will place constraints on deviations from Scenario
2. Essentially, the expected implementation of large-scale
mass transit technologies exemplified by high speed mag-
netically levitated trains, will indirectly enhance the condi-
tions that characterize Scenario 2.
E. Desirable Situation and Goals
The occurrence of either of the two scenarios discussed
' above will result in increased pressure for the redevelopment of
former industrial sites and remediated land. It is desirable that
schemes be developed for monitoring the evolution of socioeco-
nomic and technological conditions and developing programs
to forestall environmental and human health problems that may
arise.
The redevelopment of brown sites has both economic and
indirect environmental benefits. In the preceding sections, the
driving factors that include socioeconomic advantages from the
perspectives of the state and local agencies and developers have
been discussed. In environmental protection terms, it is worthy
to note that the development of remediated sites (brown fields)
implies the conservation of clean sites (green fields), a situation
that is desirable with respect to overall public interest. It is
within EPA's mission to ensure that redevelopment is imple-
mented with safeguards against environmental and human health
damage. Toward this end, the existence pf the following situa-
• tions within the next thirty years is desirable:
Availability of data on population and spatial growth
patterns of U.S. cities.
• Availability of data on the number and distribution of
both abandoned and operating industrial sites relative
to large population centers.
• Availability of centralized information resources on
.liability Taws and trends relevant to site.redevelop-
ment.
• Existence of comprehensive schemes for integrating
site redevelopment into city and regional plans.
Existence of federal policies with adequate latitude for
local jurisdictional controls on redevelopment.
Availability of technical schemes arid research data for
addressing issues such as residual contaminant migra-
tion, exposure and risk assessments for site redevelop-
ment, relevant cleanup standards, foundation systems
in residually contaminated land, occupational health
and safety, and environmental equity.
•, Availability of expertise within EPA to address these
issues. ,
Unfortunately, these desirable situations will not evolve
unless the leading .environmental control agency, EPA, takes
the initiative to develop internal programs and form appropriate
partnerships for addressing the issues discussed in the next
section. .
B-6
-------
F. Assessment of U.S. EPA's Readiness
and Recommendations
Some elements of EPA's programs are adaptable to schemes
that can address some aspects of the issue of industrial and
contaminated site development. However, in general, available
schemes are inadequate for achieving the goals outlined in
Section E. EPA's readiness in key policy and technical areas are
briefly discussed below. Recommendations are also made on
approaches to developing and implementing schemes to address
relevant issues.
F-1. Data Needs on Site Inventory and
Spatial Distribution
EPA (1986) documented some case-histories involving site
redevelopment in the U.S. Subsequently, this issue has gone
forward without adequate tracking by the Agency. In addition,
information on important parameters such as the total number
of industrial sites in cities and their spatial distribution within
such cities is lacking. Some military sites that are candidate
sites for redevelopment may currently be exempt from EPA
regulations. Nevertheless, information needs to be collected
because a central repository for this information is needed. With
respect to data collection, the recommendations outlined below
are made to improve EPA's readiness.
• Establishment of alliance with municipal governments
to acquire and analyze location and site characteriza-
tion data on abandoned industrial and closed military
sites on a continuing basis.
• Use of Geographic Information Systems to reference
the location of remediated and industrial sites relative
to large population centers.
• Compilation and storage of data on site-specific prob-
lems, risk management decisions and liability laws
that are relevant to the redevelopment of sites. Col-
laboration with the States and local authorities is es-
sential.
F-2. Site Redevelopment and City/
Regional Planning
EPA has hitherto played no role in providing guidance to
local governments and the states in the area of planning al-
though those plans, when implemented, have significant bear-
ing on environmental pollution and, hence, human health. At a
minimum, an advisory role by the Agency on City Planning and
Zoning activities may enhance the implementation of reason-
ably uniform policies on site redevelopment across the country.
This participation would also indirectly benefit other aspects of
the Agency's budding programs for local communities, exem-
plified by Environmental Equity. In this regard, the following
recommendations are made:
• Development of schemes to help local agencies in the
formulation of zoning regulations to protect environ-
mentally sensitive sites from excessive redevelopment.
• Involvement of the Agency in sustainable develop-
ment forums that address the interrelationships among
site redevelopment, urban renewal, legal liability, risk
management, employment, and transportation system
' - . •. efficiency. .
F-3. Exposure Assessment and Site
Cleanup Levels
Currently, cleanup levels for contaminated sites vary from
one state to another. The issue of "How clean is clean?" has still
not been settled. Existing cleanup standards have been largely
developed without consideration of future land use and risk
management. The expected increase in remediated land rede-
velopment is a compelling argument for the integration of
future land use into contaminant cleanup standards for land. For
sites that are candidates for future development, such cleanup
standards should be credibly tied to the numerical regime of the
risk of exposure of future residents or workers to residual levels
of contaminants. Since the risk level depends partly on the
design conservatism of yet-to-be-determined structural con-
figurations, exact apriori analyses are not attainable. Neverthe-
less, information on the numerical regime of health risk will
suffice as the basis for specifying relevant cleanup standards.
Both deterministic and probabilistic methods of risk assess-
ment have been advocated for inclusion in EPA's risk manage-
ment strategy for contaminated sites. Equation 1 represents the
general configuration of the current EPA exposure assessment
numerical relationship. It is herein used only for illustrating the
relationship between exposure and facility design. There are
several other exposure equations. - ' ,
IN - [(C) (IR) (EF) (ED)]/[(BW) (AT)]
(1)
IN = intake = amount of a specific chemical in a
contaminated medium taken (mg/kg of body
weight/day).
C = concentration = average chemical concentra-
tion contacted over the exposure period (mg/
l,mig/mg). ,
IR - intake rate (or contact rate = amount of con-
taminated medium contacted per unit time or
evemt)(mg/day or L/day).
EF = exposure frequency (upper bound value), (day/
year).
ED = exposure duration (upper bound value),
(years).
BW - body weight = average body weight over the
exposure period (kg).
AT = averaging time = time period over which
exposure is averaged = exposure duration for
non-carcinogens and 70 years for carcinogens
(yeai-s).
At any residually contaminated site that is a candidate for
redevelopment, the parameters C and EF depend indirectly on
the facility type and configuration, and the time of occupancy,
respectively, of the facility constructed on the site. The residual
concentration and .transport characteristics of contaminants across
the structural components into inhabited spaces affect exposure
indirectly through direct effects on parameter C. Exposure is
also affected by the type of structure. Over a reasonable time
B-7
-------
period (e.g., 1 year) people spend more time in residential
housing than in warehouses and parking ramps. Equation 1
illustrates that this situation affects the exposure frequency.
These factors should be considered by EPA in the development
of cleanup standards for contaminated sites slated for redevel-
opment. In general, the following recommendations are made.
• Review of current exposure and risk assessment meth-
ods to assess their adaptability to site redevelopment
schemes.
• Development of numerical regimes of human health
and environmental risks for redevelopment to provide
developers with general data (with a caution that site-
specific assessments are necessary).
• Assessment of the occupational health and environ-
mental equity issues that are associated with site rede-
velopment.
• Specification of cleanup standards based on potential
site reuse.
F-4. Engineering Mitigation Schemes for
Structures
A preliminary analysis of the geoenvironmental engineer-
ing aspects of contaminated site development was made by
EPA (1993). However, comprehensive geotechnical schemes
have neither been developed yet by the Agency nor imple-
mented widely by industry. During the past decade, EPA, in
collaboration with local and other federal agencies, has devel-
oped geostructural systems for controlling human exposure to
radon and its decay products at problematic sites. The concep-
tual configuration of one of these systems is shown in Figure B-
I. Other configurations and techniques are illustrated and
discussed by EPA (1991b) and Murane (1993). Although some
of these schemes may be adaptable, with modifications, to
mitigating residual contaminant transport in the vapor phase
from soils into inhabited space, additional schemes need to be
developed by EPA.
Residual contaminants can migrate in the vapor, liquid, and
solid phases at contaminated sites under suitable geohydrological
and other environmental conditions. The geotechnical design of
the structural foundation system is also one of the determinants
of contaminant migration potential. Realizations at gas stations
above leaking tanks indicate that flaws in buildings can serve as
conduits for contaminant entry. The development of such flaws
in the long term in structures can be enhanced by the structural
instability of foundation site soils. Unfortunately, contaminated
soil strength, which will be an important parameter with respect
to the stability of structural foundations in reclaimed industrial
and contaminated sites, is not of significant concern in current
EPA site assessment schemes.
The recommendations for improving the Agency's readi-
ness in the geoenvironmental area are as follows:
* Development of general schemes for relating the de-
sign of geotechnical foundation schemes to exposure
parameters.
• Integration of foundation stability assessments into
contaminated site characterization schemes.
• Collaboration with the external geotechnical commu-
nity to develop and evaluate protective foundation
schemes for structures on reclaimed industrial sites as
a natural follow-up to the issues discussed in EPA
(1993).
F-5. Education, Research and In-house
Expertise
In some cases where the potential exposure levels will be
proven to be insignificant, some prospective residents of houses
built on remediated land will still be fearful of residing in such
houses. Community education schemes are recommended to
minimize the fear factor where risks have been successfully
mitigated.
The high prospects for large-scale land redevelopment in
the U.S. requires that research be conducted on several relevant
topics among which are the following:
Contaminant attenuation characteristics of building
materials.
• Effects of residual contaminants on soil strength.
Barriers and sealants for controlling contaminant entry
into structures.
Identification and assessment of exposure scenarios
relevant to contaminated site development.
• Interactions of socioeconomic factors in contaminated
site development.
• Comparative economics and environmental benefits of
green versus brown sites development.
• Automatic sensing systems for contaminants in inhab-
ited spaces.
The implementation of the recommendations made in this
section will require the retention of a critical mass of in-house
expertise by the Agency in relevant disciplinary areas. Unfortu-
nately, most of the relevant issues need to be integrated directly
into EPA's programs and, hence, cannot be effectively managed
by external contractors on a'continuous basis. In addition, some
of the issues involve the creation of policies that have signifi-
cant technical components.
The Agency's laboratory personnel, technical analysts, and
work program managers are unlikely to cover all the technical
ground necessary to develop effective policies and technical
schemes to address the issue of site redevelopment. These
issues involve contaminant migration modeling, geotechnical
reliability analysis, socioeconomic theory, spatial data analysis,
toxicology, soil and groundwater reclamation science, and geo-
hydrology as major disciplinary areas. While the Agency re-
tains expertise at the program management level in these areas,
hands-on analysts with expertise on the issues described above
are very few at the Agency. In particular, geotechnical expertise
is almost nonexistent in the entire Agency, perhaps due to the
fact that relevant issues have traditionally been treated margin-
ally within the general framework of environmental engineer-
ing. An improvement in in-house expertise is recommended.
The Agency also needs to improve its collaborative efforts with
B-8
-------
Radon
Radon Collection Tank with
Electrical Pressure-Sensing
Devices
Radon Gas Flushing Tube
Pressurized Air
• '—^.
Geotextile
Geomembrane Gas Barrier
Sloping Gravel Layer
Native Soil
U
Upward Migrating Radon Gas
t
-h
•f
-f-
-1-
T- t
-i- f
Radon-bearing Bedrock
t; +
1 i-
+ : vt-
t T- t '
+ + +
S* +
Figure B-1. A conceptual scheme for controlling radon entry into a residential structure
other federal agencies such as the National Science Foundation
and the National institutes of Health.
G. Consequences of Delayed Action
EPA needs to formulate policies and develop technical
support schemes for integrating site redevelopment issues into
its current and future regulatory and technical support pro-
grams. The undesirable consequences of delaying action until
the occurrence of any of the two scenarios discussed above are
outlined below.
• The Agency will be forced to develop remedial rather
than preventive schemes for mitigating potential haz-
ards from reuse of abandoned and remediated indus-
trial sites and installations.
• Liability concerns may force developers to target
greener sites that can be spared instead of abandoned
industrial sites and remediated land that can be benefi-
cially utilized.
• It would take several years to appreciate the relevant
occupational health hazards subsequent to uncontrolled
redevelopment activities.
• The Agency would miss an opportunity to contribute
to urban renewal projects that will eventually influ-
ence its programs such as Environmental Equity and
Risk Assessment.
• Employment opportunities that would be created by
urban site redevelopment projects would be missed.
H. Conclusions
Redevelopment of former industrial sites and other sites
that may not be entirely clean will become more prevalent
within the next thirty 'years.- Changes in regulatory climate
socioeconomic factors, risk acceptability and technological ad-
vances will serve as catalysts for this category of land recycling.
Currently, EPA does not have adequate policy and technical
schemes to address the issues that will emerge. Considering that
proactive schemes are generally more cost-effective than reme-
dial schemes, EPA has unique opportunities to develop schemes
apnori to support and control the aspects of this issue that will
fall within its mandate of protecting human health and the
environment. Such schemes, if implemented wisely, can serve
the interest of the U.S. public without stifling economic growth
This objective is relevant to the overall concept of sustainable
development.
B-9
-------
I. References
1 Anderson, J.K. and Hatayama, H.K. 1988. Beneficial
reuses of hazardous waste sites in California. Mono-
graph Series. Hazardous Materials Control Resources
Institute, Greenbelt, Maryland, pp. 28-32.
2 Census Bureau. 1993a. Estimates of the population of
the U.S. to August 1, 1993. P25-1107. Bureau of the
Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington,
DC.
3 Census Bureau. 1993b. How we are changing: demo-
graphic state of the nation. Series P-23, No. 184.
Current Population Reports, Special Studies. Bureau
of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Wash-
ington, DC.
4 Census Bureau. 1993c. 1990 census of housing; gen-
eral housing characteristics-urbanized areas. 1990 Ch-
1-1C. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of
Commerce, Washington, DC.
5 Chu, TJ., Wash, TJ. and Fellows, M.H. 1992. Envi-
ronmental restoration at formerly used defense sites.
Proc. 13th Anual National (HMC/Superfund) Confer-
ence, Washington, D.C., pp. 258-261.
6 GAO. 1993a. Hazardous waste; much work remains to
accelerate facility cleanups. Report to Congressional
Requesters. GAO/RCED-93-15. US General Account-
ing Office, Washington, DC.
7 GAO. 1993b. Cleaning up inactive facilities will be
difficult. GAO/RCED-93-149. Report to the Chair-
man, Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight,
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, House
of Representatives. US General Accounting Office.
8 Greenthal, J.L. and Millspaugh, P.P. 1988. Implica-
tions of dealing with real estate-based cleanup statutes
and recommended measures for avoiding economic
and operational disruption. Proc. 9th National
(Superfund) Conference, Washington, DC., pp.60-64.
9 HMCRI. 1993 EPA report offers shopping list for
cleanup technologies. Hazardous Materials Control
Resources Institute. Focus, Vol. 9, No. 7, pp.2.
10 Inside EPA. 1993. House member prepares first
Superfund Bill: will stress reuse of sites. Inside EPA,
August, pp. 15.
11 McGregor, G.I. 1992. Buying and selling dirty real
estate. Proc. 13th Annual National (HMC/Superfund)
Conference, Washington, DC., pp. 31-33.
12 Murane, D.M. 1993. Radon mitigation and prevention
standards. ASTM Standardization News, December,
ASTM, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, pp. 40-43.
13 Schulte, B. 1993. Developer is gaining ground in na-
tional fight for property rights. The Washington Post,
Friday, December 31, pp. A4.
14 Sidel, V.W. 1993. Cleaning up: risk and risk reduction
at military sites. U.S. Water News, August, pp. 7.
15 SCTF. 1993. Sustainable development. Draft Report,
Sustainable Communities Task Force, President's
Council on Sustainable Development, Washington,
D.C.
16 ULI1993. Market profiles: Vol. 1 and II. Urban Land
Institute, Washington/DC.
17 United Nations. 1985. Estimates and projections of
urban, rural and city populations, 1950-2025: the 1982
assessment. Department of International Economic and
Social Affairs, United Nations, New York.
18 US EPA. 1993. Geotechnical systems for structures
on contaminated sites. EPA 530-R-93-002: PB93-
209419. A Technical Guidance Document. Office of
Solid Waste and Emergency Response, U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
19 U.S. EPA. 1991a. Superfund. Briefing Materials Pre-
sented to the Administrator, by the Superfund Pro-
gram, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, DC.
20 U.S. EPA 1991b. Radon-resistant construction tech-
niques for new residential construction. EPA/625/2-
91/032. Technical Guidance Document. Office of
Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, Washington, DC.
21 U.S. EPA 1986. Reclamation and redevelopment of
contaminated land: Vol 1 U.S. case studies. EPA/600/
2-86/066. Hazardous Waste Engineering Laboratory,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati,
Ohio.
22 Zimmerman, M.D. 1992. On shaky ground: property
owner's options for managing pollution liability.
Hazmat World, March, pp. 45-46.
B-10
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Appendix C
Transient Phenomena
by
Dr. Frederick G. Pohland
Weidlien Chair of Environmental engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Pittsburgh,
Pittsburgh, PA
March 7,1994
Prepared for
Futures Project Report
Environmental Engineering Committee
Science Advisory Board
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
-------
-------
A. Global Goal
With prime responsibility for safeguarding and enhancing
the quality of the environment and protecting human health, the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must develop a
state of readiness to respond to any natural or anthropogenic
threats, however engendered. Tho§e threats that are posed on a
continuum have received more attention from both prevention
and remediation perspectives, largely because they frequently
have recognizable and manageable spatial and temporal dimen-
sions. On the other hand, less predictable transient phenomena,
whose consequences may be shorter lived but much more
severe and devastating, are often only considered in passing and
unfortunately then only in a reactionary mode after the fact.
This latter dilemma is exacerbated by the frequent division of
responsibility and authority when disaster strikes, and the abil-
ity of available resources to take responsive action.
Since environment and human health are inextricably linked,
with one affecting the other directly and indirectly in cause/
effect relationships, the imposition of a transient phenomena as
a driver may convert a hazard into a catastrophe. The magnitude
and intensity of these events are often measured in terms of
human health and welfare, as well as environmental perturba-
tions, a domain often shared by EPA with other agencies. Yet
EPA has not been an active player or led the pertinent agenda
for natural hazard preparedness and/or mitigation, and it is
currently not positioned to participate effectively either in de-
veloping policy or providing assessment and technological guid-
ance.
B. Issues
The issues involved with transient phenomena include
those elements of natural hazards that manifest themselves in
threats to the environment and to public health and welfare.
Although these phenomena encompass a broad array of events,
including those triggered or driven by hydrological phenomena,
e.g., river and coastal floods or tropical cyclones, and those
consequenced by geological phenomena, e.g., earthquakes, vol-
canic eruptions or landslides, the selected subordinate issue and
its plausible and important scenarios will deal specifically with
the former, vis-a-vis riverine floods, and vulnerabilities ex-
pressed in terms of risks to populations and the environment as
well as approaches to their mitigation.
C. Background
There are many compelling reasons to consider transient
phenomena, such as floods, as a new and important area for
EPA to embrace, and in that role help avert the consequences
that often transform such hazards into disasters. Indeed, beyond
the direct impacts on Jives and property, there remain many
indirect consequences that are often too obscure or subtle to
receive and equate attention, whether driven by accidental
releases of contaminants into the environment or malicious and/
or opportunistic dumping. The implications of such scenarios
are far-reaching and cannot be attended to properly in the
disorder associated with the flood event, which often obliterates
facts and disallows reasoned and reliable accounting.
Each year natural disasters kill thousands of people and
inflict billions of dollars in economic loss. In 1987, the United
Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution declaring the
1990s the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.
The U.S. Congress endorsed the concept in resolutions passed
the following year, and a U.S. National Committee was formed
to develop a program for the nation. In a National Research
Council report (NRG, 1991), the Committee proposed a
multidisciplinary program that integrates hazard and risk as-
sessments; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness
for emergency response, recovery, and reconstruction; predic-
tion and warning; strategies for learning from disasters; and
international cooperation. Nowhere in this report was a role for
EPA explicitly defined, and visible EPA representation in its
development and presentation was absent. Yet the area of
mitigating and reducing the impacts of natural disasters, i.e.,
protection of natural resources, research to improve prediction
ofhydrologic hazards and impacts on natural resources, and
coordination and standardization of data collection, stands out
as initiatives within the mission of EPA.
A disaster is said to occur when an extreme event coincides
with a vulnerable situation—surpassing society's ability to con-
trol or survive the consequences (The World Bank, 1991). Not
every crisis is a potential disaster, but accelerated changes in
demography and economic trends often disturb the balance,
thereby increasing risks. Moreover, natural disasters are often
caused at least partly by man-made changes in the natural
settings adjacent to a vulnerable environmental compartment,
e.g., a river, and there is evidence that worldwide incidence of
deaths from extreme weather events (typhoons, hurricanes,
floods, and droughts) has increased by 50% on average each
decade between 1900 and 1990, accelerating significantly since
1950 (OFDA, 1990).
Likewise, the damage caused by such events has esca-
lated—increasing faster than population growth—with eco-
nomic costs per decade increasing exponentially. Hence, there
appears to be an apparent correlation between the frequency and
severity of a natural disaster and environmental degradation,
whether expressed in destruction of vegetative cover or in terms
of landless squatters who concentrate in fragile, often marginal
and orphaned areas, including those prone to flooding.
Floodplains particularly are at risk from riverine flooding,
and although they occupy only a small fraction of most urban-
ized areas, they tend to be proportionately more developed. For
example, only 9.4% of the Boston urbanized area is in the
floodplain, but this area accounts for 19.1% of the total devel-
oped area (Palm, 1990). This is compared to Denver where
50.5% is in the floodplain but contains 62.2% of. the total
developed area, and to Phoenix with 18.4% in the floodplain,
but accounting for 89.2% of the developed area. Hence, urban-
ization in flood-prone areas has predictable consequences,
whether manifested in accelerated runoff from rainfall events or
water quality deterioration due to translocation of pollutants
from urban sources. These and other ramifications can be
anticipated and often translate in terms of adverse impacts on
human health and the environment as depicted by the hazard
sequence tree for thunderstorms in Figure C-l.
Accounts of the consequences of flooding in the U.S. and
throughout the world, as exemplified by the recent floods along
the Mississippi River; where property damage exceeded $10
billion and large portions of the nine contiguous states were
declared federal disaster areas (National Geographic, 1994),
and the recent flooding along the Rhine, Danube, and smaller
C-1
-------
Intense
Thunderstorm
i Winds
1
1
Short-term
Heavy
Precipitation
1
Sheet
Flooding
Increased
Stream Flow
{Landslides
1
Increased
Debris Capacity
1
Streamflow
Erosion
Channel Increased Transporta
Redefined Debris Flow System
! ; unaermin
1
1
Severed
Telephone
Cables
•
Disruption
Ruptured Ruptured
Sewer Lines Natural Gas Line
1
Environmental Wastewater Environmental Fir
Contamination Services Contamination
tion Power Poles
s Undermined
ed ;
1
Severed
Electrical Lines
Power
Outages
i
Underground Utilities Chemical
Exposed Washout
Exposed Live
Power Lines
i
•
Ruptured
Pipelines
|Fire| | Electrocution |
3
Ruptured
Petroleum Lines
e Environmental
Contamination
Fire
Ruptured
Water Mains
Water Supply Water
Contaminated Servces
Disrupted
Figure C-1. Natural hazards sequence tree (after May, NRC).
rivers in Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands
(Reuters News Service, 1993), underscore the urgency of atten-
tion to floods as a representative new horizon of EPA concern.
The challenges of safeguarding populations from hazardous
materials swept away by flooding along the Mississippi, moni-
toring pollutants from unidentified sources, and restoring the
integrity and dependability of wastewater and drinking water
services constitute only a few issues on an agenda for action that
involves short-term and long-term implications for both policy
and technological decisions. Congress has mandated attention
to such natural hazards, and EPA has a vital role to play in its
evolution.
D. Goals
To effectively contribute to an action plan for assessing and
providing potential remediation of the consequences of natural
hazards in the area of floods, and to act consonant with its
mission as the lead environmental agency of the nation and in
accordance with the NRC Report recommendations, EPA will
need to expand its current activities and develop appropriate
policies and strategies to address environmental and health/
welfare aspects of:
• Hazards and Risk Assessments
• Mitigation and Prevention
• Emergency Response
• Prediction and Warning
C-2
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• Data Acquisition and Validation
• Education and Technology Transfer
Whereas floods can serve as a representative example, the
effort should embrace the entire range of those natural disasters
creating environmental risks.
E. Objectives
Whereas the consequences of flooding (or other hazards)
are evident, as is the often lack of coordinated planning for or
reacting to a given scenario, the benefits derived from a proac-
tive program in accordance with the indicated goals could
include:
• Reduction in life and property losses.
• Marginal land rehabilitation, zoning, and conversion.
• Safeguards against flood-derived contamination and
its microscale and mesoscale effects on human and
natural resources.
• Provisions for developing flood-specific data bases
and guidance to the public and private sectors.
• Catalysis of research and development for innovative
preventive and remedial technologies.
• Beneficiation of EPA's image as an important con-
tributor to reducing impacts of natural disasters and
promoting a safer future for impacted populations.
F. Strategies and Methodologies
To effectively address the assessment and ability to re-
spond to transient phenomena such as natural disasters, it is
considered prudent for EPA to recognize the breadth and depth
of cause/effect relationships inherent in particular driver events.
This requires not only a sufficient understanding of the event,
but how it manifests itself within the arena of impact. There-
fore, an environmental impact assessment could be the primary
focus, allowing ancillary issues to play out as a particular
scenario unfolds.
There is already considerable understanding of the phe-
nomena that may create natural disasters, and a wide array of
published literature is available. Likewise, there is guidance for
policy makers and planners to better understand and mitigate
natural disasters (United Nations, 1991). These sources not only
deal with floods, but with the array of possibilities either alone
or in combination. In addition, there are detailed reports of
various natural disasters that provide retrospective opportuni-
ties to learn from related experiences, whether a Valdez ground-
ing, infrastructure collapse, a Bophal industrial disaster, or a
terrorist action. Each such disaster tends to provide new insights
and horizons not otherwise recognized; in the case of the
Mississippi floods, subsequent assessments revealed both
microscale and macroscale impacts, including, for instance, the
unknown consequences of excessive fresh water discharges on
saline environments from the Gulf of Mexico, around the tip of
Florida, and up the Northeast Coast and the nearly million
metric tons of nitrate that were transported in the process
(USGS, 1993). Moreover, in all such circumstances, a range of
scenarios can evolve between a state of preparedness to one of
nonpreparedness at the opposite extreme. Hence, it would be
instructive to develop cause/effect matrices within these two
bounds, identifying the drivers creating the potential hazard,
and evaluating the environmental impacts accordingly.
The natural hazzirds sequence tree approach previously
introduced (Figure C-l) could be used to reyeal direct and
indirect causal factors that could trigger possible adverse im-
pacts. Then by using a network analysis (Westman, 1984)
incorporating the vulnerable environmental compartments (e.g.,
water supplies, aquatic ecosystems), the initial and final effects,
controlling mechanisms, and possible corrective action, ad-
justed in terms of magnitude, importance, and probability of
occurrence as dictated by the particular selected preparedness
scenario, the most drastic output would be determined for the
case of nonpreparedness, while the others would be some
increment thereof and lessening with degree of preparedness.
The product of such a network analysis could be articulated
in the form of a hazard summary directed at the environmental
compartment of focus, arrayed in terms of magnitude, impor-
tance, and estimated probability, and fortified by pertinent
descriptive comments drawn from antecedent knowledge and
experiences. If extended to other disasters besides floods, it
could take the form of a disaster effects matrix showing likely
damage, loss, shortage, etc., consequenced by the respective
disasters on various system components, as "what if scenarios
are imposed. Such an approach has been advocated for water
utilities (Shioda, 1994) to establish protocols and action plans
for emergency preparedness and response (Table C-l).
Since environmental impact assessment involves
crossdisciplinary expertise and focus on health and natural
resources often within the domain of the missions of other
federal and state agencies, responsibility for developing and
implementing strategies and methodologies should be shared,
but EPA should assume a leadership role on issues involving
assessment of environmental consequences of the various tran-
sient phenomena. Such coordination is vital, so that the estab-
lished Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), and Corps of Engineers programs for emergency
response, prediction and warning, and mitigation, respectively,
can be broadened to embrace a responsibility to acknowledge,
prevent, or mitigate also the environmental consequences of
transient phenomena.
C-3
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Table Of. Disaster Effect Matrix Showing Likely Damage, Loss, or Shortage Resulting from Hazards (Shlmoda, 1994)
System Components
Earth-
quakes
Hurri-
canes
Torna-
dos
Floods
Forest Volcanic Other Water Hazardous
or Brush Erup- Severe Borne Material Structure
Fires tions Weather Disease Spill Fire
Administration/operations
Personnel
Facilities/equipment
Records
Source water
Watersheds/surface source
Reservoirs and dams
Groundwater sources
Wells and galleries
Transmission
Intake structures
Aqueducts
Pump stations
Pipelines, valves
Treatment
Facility structures
Controls
Equipment
Chemicals
Storage
Tanks
Valves
Piping
Distribution
Pipelines, valves
Pumper PRV stations
Materials
Electric power
Substations
Transmission lines
Transformers
Standby generators
Transportation
Vehicles
Maintenance facilities
Supplies
Roadway infrastructure
Communications
Telephone
Two-way radio
Telemetry
C-4
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G. References
1 Mairson, A., "The Great Flood of '93," National Geo-
graphic, Vol. 185, No. 1, 42-81 January 1994.
2 National Research Council (NRC), "A Safer Future—
Reducing the Impacts o£ Natural ^Disaster," National
Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp. 67, ISBN 0-
309-04546-0,1991.
3 "Managing Natural Disasters and the Environment,"
Keimer, A. and Monasinghe, M. [Eds.], The World
Bank, Washington, DC, pp 215, 1991.
4 OFDA (USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance),
Washington, DC, 1990:
5 Palm, R.I., "Natural Hazards: An Integrative Frame-
work for Research and Planning," The John Hopkins
University Press, Baltimore, MD, pp. 184, ISBN 0-
8018-3866-5,1990.
6 Reuters News Service, "Holiday Floods Keep Fami-
lies from Homes," The Pittsburgh Press, December 25,
1993.
7 United Nations, "Mitigating Natural Disasters—Phe-
nomena, Effects and Options," United Nations Publi-
cations, New York, NY, p. 164, ISBN 92-1-132019-4,
1990.
8 • United States Geological Survey, "Occurrence and
Transport of Agricultural Chemicals in the Mississippi
River Basin, July through August 1993," U.S. Geo-
logical Survey Circular 1120-C, Denver Federal Cen-
ter, Denver, CO, pp. 22,1993.
9 Shimoda, T.A., "Emergency Preparedness and Re-
sponse," Journal A WWA, Vol. 86, No. 1, 84-92, Janu-
ary 1994.
10 Westman, W.E., "Ecology, Impact Assessment, and
Environmental Planner," John Wiley & Sons, New
York, NY, pp. 532, ISBN 0-471-80895-4,1985.
C-5
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Appendix D
Core Competency
by
Dr. Wm. Randall Seeker, Senior Vice President
Energy & Environmental Research Corporation
Irvine, CA
Prepared for
Futures Project Report
Environmental Engineering Committee
Science Advisory Board
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
-------
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A. Introduction
The purpose of the EPA SAB Environmental Futures Project
is to assist in the continued development of EPA's capacity to
anticipate environmental problems, issues, and opportunities.
The Environmental Engineering Committee has focussed on
three scenarios that might occur in the future, analyzed the
consequences of these scenarios if EPA continued on their
current course of action, and has made some recommendations
on how EPA could more appropriately respond to these future
issues resulting from the scenarios. These scenarios are clearly
not the only scenarios that could happen in the future. Nonethe-
less, it is crucial for EPA to be ready for any foreseeable or
unforeseeable event that falls within the mission of the agency.
Since no scientific method exists to truly predict what scenario
will occur, a solid foundation of underlying skills, knowledge,
technology, and science, which enable Agency to deliver the
products and services suitable to respond to any plausible
scenario, is needed.
The concept of core competency has been developed and
used by industry and other agencies to represent those necessary
underlying skills, knowledge, technology and science to carry
out their mission (see attachment). The definition of core com-
petencies adopted here is as follows:
"the essential and distinct scientific and technical
capabilities that enable EPA to fulfill it's current
and future missions."
This paper will focus on the need to systematically analyze
and define those core scientific and technical competencies
needed by the Agency to respond to problems, issues, and
opportunities in the future, and to define a process to continue
the study.
B. Drivers
Reduced resources will likely be available to EPA in the
future to address environmental issues. At the same time there
will be significant pressure on the Agency to approach regula-
tions from a holistic approach, i.e., address multimedia pollut-
ants from all sources using not just end of pipe control but true
pollution prevention. Hence with less resources EPA will have
to marshal multidisciplinary teams to address multi-pollutant
problems. In addition, there is a need for even more rapid
response to environmental problems associated with transient
phenomena such as natural disasters and terrorism, since in
these instances, there is little time to conduct studies and
develop expertise after the transients occur. Thus in the future,
the Agency must be able to respond faster to broader environ-
mental issues but with less resources.
There will be a significant need to extract information from
ongoing activities and advances taking place outside of the
Agency due to the availability of less resources at EPA to
address broader issues. It is important to determine what other
agencies are doing in the environmental field in order to avoid
duplication of effort and to determine if EPA should develop its
own core competency in certain areas or rely on others. The
concept of virtual companies could be applied to government.
agencies i.e., EPA could serve the role as a clearinghouse and
coordinator of all environmental activities for all other agen-
cies. Nonetheless, the Agency will need to have the skilled
expertise to be able to recognize and to use these external
resources and advances. In addition, an infrastructure will be
needed to allow the use of information generated by other
agencies and to use the core competencies of other agencies
particularly with less overall funds.
C. Scenarios
The scenario that arises from these drivers is that in the
future, EPA will have less resources with which to deal with
broader multimedia pollutant issues and must deal with some of
them in a more rapid fashion due to their transient nature. The
Agency will lose core competency that is needed to address
these new problems. Other government agencies will play a
much more significant role in environmental research and de-
velopment.
D. Consequences
The consequence of this continued loss of competencies
will be the following:
1 Loss of capability to serve customers. Understandably,
"technology alone cannot solve environmental prob-
lems," as suggested in the Environmental Futures
Project joint WRI and EPA study. On the other hand,
another issue that emerged from the same study is
"despite the potential of innovative technologies to
improve environmental quality in many instances, this
potential may not be fully realized." Unless critical
expertise and technologies are defined and nurtured,
EPA will not have the capability to respond effec-
tively, regardless of legislation and regulations that
exist.
EPA's products and services are typically regulations,
procedures, scientific knowledge, technologies, and
deployment services. The level of competence needed
to deliver such products is built over many years. It is
not equivalent to building widgets, nor is it equivalent
to simply responding to customer requests. Customers
include those who pay for, use, and/or benefit from
products and services. Therefore, EPA customers are
many, including Congress, taxpayers, industry,
academia, and most importantly, the public at large.
The very nature of the work requires that the Agency
develop a strategic vision and prepare itself now for
the types of products, services, research and develop-
ment needed to assure a healthy nation. It is equally
important that Ihe Agency not overlook, or simply take
for granted, current competencies required for the fu-
ture. Only through careful study and analysis will the
critical competencies be identified and developed.
2 Inadequate basis for decision-making. If evidence ex-
ists that current competencies are not being adequately
funded, EPA will not be in a position to fully carry out
its responsibilities. The possibility exists that the com-
petence will be lost in Congressional budget debates.
Particular emphasis should be placed on those compe-
tencies that cut across national programs and their
applications For example, DOE Defense Programs
identified materials as critical to both defense and
nondefense applications. They believe that they must
stay on the cutting-edge of materials science to fully
D-1
-------
address civilian and economic competitiveness as well
as weapon stockpile problems. Of course, not all tech-
nical capabilities can be equally funded, especially
with declining budgets and tighter resources. Nor should
they be. This type of approach to defining those com-
petencies that are critical to EPA's future provides a
basis for decision-making and priority-setting, ele-
ments that are essential to the current management
approach within EPA.
3 Short-term approaches and solutions. Prahalad and
Hammel suggest that, "If core competencies are not
recognized, individual units will pursue only those
innovation opportunities that are close at hand—mar-
ginal product-line extensions or geographic expan-
sions." Related to EPA, unless competencies are
identified and developed, programs may pursue only
those solutions that are relative to the specific problem
at hand, perhaps overlooking a more global, future
need that could be addressed with a shift in program
definition and priority, and thereby simultaneously
building future competencies. It is this type of compre-
hensive view of Agency-wide competencies that will
sustain the Agency as the respected leader. According
to the final Megatrends report, "Comprehensive, multi-
disciplinary, and integrated solutions will be necessary
to solve future environmental problems."
4 Lack of science transferred to technology. The
Megatrends report also identified seven critical chal-
lenges the Agency will face in the future. Challenge #5
outlined in the report states, "To create a world-class
scientific capacity within EPA in order to give the
Agency the ability to develop and utilize new knowl-
edge and to serve as a catalyst for technology innova-
tion critical to achieving the nation's environmental
objectives." The authors of this report have recognized
the need to identify and maintain the scientific knowl-
edge base and technologies to carry out the EPA
mission.
E. Mitigating Actions
1 Identify critical core competencies. EPA's primary
mission is to protect the environment and the health
and safety of all Americans. Over the years, EPA-
sponsored programs and activities have been able to
respond to key developments and events to assure
environmental health and safety. However, it is simply
not enough to assume that the future quality of EPA
response will equal those of the past. In fact, one
premise is that unless critical competencies that are
needed to anticipate significant impacts and carry out
future programs are defined and nurtured, the opposite
will occur. Objectives should be developed for build-
ing competencies in line with strategic directions and
vision, and investments must continue to be made to
ensure the Agency's viability in these critical areas.
As a regulatory agency, EPA is responsible to the
public to implement Congressional legislation. As a
result, the programs are structured according to the
legislative acts, and in the last five to ten years, the
focus of the work has shifted from ensuring a scientific
base for environmental protection to developing, imple-
menting, and monitoring regulations. The agency's
effort to strengthen and even maintain current compe-
tencies has gotten pushed to the "back burner" as
Congress foisted more regulatory activity-related bur-
dens onto an increasingly overstretched EPA. The
question now is to what extent will the Agency be able
to respond to future events and uncertainties when
most of its focus has turned to regulation development
and its enforcement? What scientific and technical
expertise, knowledge, and capabilities are being lost or
ignored in the quest to simply regulate?
2 Identify critical core research. One critical component
of maintaining core competencies is to maintain criti-
cal research programs. The Agency must provide a
leadership role by formulating and executing a core
research program that helps solve environmental prob-
lems associated with all types of industrial, commer-
cial, and municipal operations well into the next century.
As the scenarios defined in this study have shown, the
future holds potentially new problems that are yet to
unfold for both the U.S. and the world. New technolo-
gies and manufacturing processes will be required to
respond to these problems. The developed countries
cannot solve global environmental problems alone.
Environmentally acceptable control measures and tech-
nologies must be developed and deployed in a cost
effective manner by the developing nations to prevent
the continued deterioration of the global environment.
However, these new problems will also generate a new
opportunity for U.S. industry. The national and inter-
national market for environmentally acceptable tech-
nologies will grow rapidly in the next decade. For
example, reduced imports of petroleum products and
the export of environmental technologies could help'to
reduce this country's trade deficit.
EPA has a unique mission to protect the environment
and must establish core research programs in several
key areas. This core research must be crosscutting.
Basic processes that are common to numerous emis-
sions issues should be addressed concerning all-gas-
eous, liquid and solid effluent and wastes. For example,
research on the formation and destruction of a particu-
lar by-product can be applicable to a wide range of
processes. The application of knowledge generated by
a basic research program will identify and facilitate the
solution of environmental problems of the next twenty
years.
EPA should maintain a solid core research program
with the following objectives: 1) drive pollutant reduc-
tion technology to the limit of technical and economic
feasibility; 2) develop the capability to predict the
amount of all pollutants present in the effluent steams
of all sources; 3) promote pollution prevention and the
development of low pollutant technology for existing
and new advanced systems; 4) provide a science and
technology base for regulations.
EPA is the only Agency with the authority to regulate
all industrial, commercial, and municipal systems that
have the potential to emit pollutants in harmful con-
D-2
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to nm tt ^ Agency has the uni
tion when making management decisions such as es-
tablishing strategic directions and plans, investments
and disinvestments, alliances and partnerships, and
identifying process reductions and organizational
streamlining, will the information be of value Pro
grams that add to the scientific base in at Ie2 one of
these critical areas should become high-priority. Addi-
tionally, the critical areas can be exploited to identify
wd applications to respond
consMe roces »
e considered in planning, this step refers only to
sfrategic guidance and directions. Needed hereare
Srrgfmei!! t!?d PlannerS> Views of *e f*ures
with the most probable potential, issues that will face
*e Agency, and their vision of the Agency's new
mission and management principles. A second input
data set is generated (Set B).
nr ™plemented to Determine the accu-
ft *d areas ^ to provide management
caf nS? T^ WhCn making decisions- A ^ti-
cal metric is the extent to which the results of the
research areas are transferred to others who can use the
information to develop proprietary products and pr
SSTi 1USby mUSt take Part' but EPA Prides
impartial role ensuring that the benefits of this i
tant core research program are readily available.
In this step the Agency compares the critical compe-
tencies from step one to those that industry other
government agencies, and academia believe to be im-
portant. Naturally, a federal Agency should not dupH-
te idSTP6^168- InStCad' duP^ations should
be dentified, questioned, and appropriately assigned
Cntical gaps should be identified and discussed8 and
S/T? °n Olfer,technologies should be investi-
gated. This provides the third set of input data (Set C).
4 Reconcile Input Data to Determine EPA Core Compe-
f€flCl€S
Bring the three date sets together to define the EPA
Core Competencies. Contrasts and comparisons should
be made across data sets to identify critical areas This
step, in particular, should be conducted with a?umbe?
Ae SaT?hrepreSentatiVeS t0 achieve con« on
toe areas This process is similar to the one success-
folly mjplemented by Sandia National Laboratories
More recently, DOE is applying similar concern
their decision-making processes.
D-3
-------
Attachment
Definitions
Business Core Competency Definition.
According to Prahalad and Hammel, "Core competencies
arc the collective learning in the organization, especially how to
Srdlnate diverse production skills and integrate mul iple
su?aTsrftechnologies.'H^^
S£^«W* others. They create the differentiating
edge needed to create and capture a market.
DOE's Core Competency Definition.
In a report dated January 15,1993, from the DOE Assistant
Secretary of Defense to the Secretary of Energy entitled, Core
Competencies Required to Fulfill the Strategic visionjf te
Defense Laboratories," core competencies are defined as, the
esseS and distinct scientific and technical capabilities that
enS me Defense Laboratories to fulfill their defense-related
DOE mission responsibilities."
EPA's Core Competency Definition.
Prahalad and Hammel's definition is applicable to industry
and Marketplace, the DOE definition applies to government
id Lir need to remain the central repository of
ffic mtelligence in support of their mission, and therefore
app icable to our task. Also, this project has an emphasis
^the future. Therefore, the definition of core competencies
adopted here is as follows:
"the essential and distinct scientific and technical
capabilities that enable EPA to fulfill its current and
future missions."
D-4
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Appendix E
Futures Methodology
Recommended Issue Identification and Assessment System
Possible Structure and Operation of an EPA "Look-Out" Panel
by
Mr. Theodore J. Gordon, Retired
23 Sailfish Road
Vero Beach, FL
Prepared for
Futures Project Report
Environmental Engineering Committee
Science Advisory Board
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
-------
-------
1. Recommended Issue Identification and Assessment System
Considering the lessons learned by the EEC Futures Writ-
ing Committee, we recommend that EPA implement a system
for detecting and analyzing incipient future issues. The system
should have the following characteristics; it should:
draw input from a wide range of sources.
operate in a continuous rather than a "one-shot" mode.
have a memory, so that suggestions that are set aside
today for lack of data or interest can be reassessed in
the future.
be quantitative, wherever possible.
be subject to scrutiny by people outside of the process.
make goals explicit.
recognize that many futures are possible.
One such system is illustrated in Figure E-l and described
below. We envision this system being run by EPA staff and
involving experts both from within and outside the Agency.
The central purpose of the panel illustrated in Task 1 is to
identify issues, trends, and developments that could have a
significant impact on the nation's environment or EPA's mis-
sion, strategies, or objectives.
The panelists would be contacted on-line, through the mail,
or by fax to scan their fields and provide observations about
new or intensifying issues that might face EPA. They are also
asked for judgments about plausible goals for the Agency and
the environment and possible means for achieving these goals.1
Because the number of respondents is usually small, a
"look out" panel will not produce statistically significant re-
sults; in other words, the results provided by the panel will not
predict the response of a larger population or even the findings
of a different panel. They represent the synthesis of opinion of
the particular group, no more or less.
The results produced by an EPA "look out" panel will
depend on the knowledge and cooperation of the panelists; for
this reason it is essential to include persons who are likely to
1 Some of the material describing the panel is drawn from letter from T. J. Gordon to
ur. nay Leonr of the SAB.
Task 1
Task 2
Look-out
Panel
Screening
Task 3*
Task6
Task 7
Panel
Review
/
^
l>
Analysis
H
Policy
Nomination
V
I
Action
Tasks
Goals and
^Visions
Figure E-1. A system for anticipating and evaluating future environmental issues.
E-1
-------
contribute valuable ideas. In a statistically based study such as a
public opinion poll, participants are assumed to be representa-
tive of a larger population; in panels of this sort, nonrepresenta-
tive, knowledgeable persons are needed. EPA laboratory
directors, division chiefs, state environmental personnel, repre-
sentatives of environmental action groups might be invited to
participate.
The screening step, Task 2, would employ criteria of the
sort the EEC has found useful in assessing the priority of issues,
such as:
scope (i.e. the number of people affected)
severity
novelty
plausibility/probability/certainty
uncertainty
irreversibility
imminence
visibility/publicity
The issues of Task 1 would be screened according to such
criteria and the top rated set fed back to the panel in Task 3.
Here the panelists would be asked to comment on issues sug-
gested earlier by others on the panel.
Those issues surviving scrutiny would flow to Task 6,
Analysis. This quantitative assessment work would be accom-
plished by staff, appropriate Scientific Advisory Committees
and outside consultants. It would be, at this stage, an early
evaluation of the extent of the problem and result in recommen-
dation about the need for future data collection study, and
policies.
The analysis would be conducted against the backdrop of
the reference scenarios developed in Task 4 and goals and
vision of the future environment developed in Task 5.
Task 4, Scenarios, involves the production and mainte-
nance of a set of scenarios that capture the evolution of drivers
and environmental prospects in the United States and other
countries; it also is the home of quantitative environmental
models and monitored environmental variables that can be used
in analyses of future issues: It would be accomplished by staff.
The goals and vision statements of Task 5 represent the
desired future state of the environment. Again, these visions
would, to the extent possible, be in quantitative form and
maintained by staff.
Policies suggested by the Task 6 analysis would tested
analytically and submitted to the panel for qualitative judgment
in Task 7. Those policies that are found to bring the expected
future state closer to the desired goals and visions would be
recommended for action.
E-2
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2. Possible Structure and Operation of an EPA "Look-Out" Panel
The central purpose of an EPA "look-out" panel would be
to identify trends and developments that could have a signifi-
cant impact on the nation's environment or EPA's mission,
strategies, or objectives.2
Picture the panel in operation. Participants seldom meet
face to face; rather, they are asked on-line, through the mail, or
by fax to provide several kinds of judgments:
They are asked to scan their fields and provide obser-
vations about de novo or intensifying issues that might
face EPA.
They are asked for judgments about plausible goals for
the Agency and the environment and possible means
for achieving these goals.
They are asked to comment on the observations about
issues, goals, and policies made by others on the panel.
In some instances they are asked to provide data, if
available, to back up their positions.
From a substantive standpoint, the issues addressed by the
panel are associated with the environment or EPA's policies
and regulations. The issues can focus on essentially any topic;
for example, highly technical discussions about risk and dosage
to discussions about the future political force of an "environ-
mental justice" movement. The geographic scope of the panel's
activity concentrates on the U.S., but world issues are fair game
if, in the end, the U.S. might be affected.
Tlie time horizon is flexible. On the one hand, the panel
doesn't move so far out that the discussion becomes esoteric; on
the other hand, the panel includes issues—no matter what their
timing—that could be mitigated by immediate action. The rule
of thumb is that "we go out in time as far as is necessary to
identify problems that could or should trigger action tomor-
row."
With this image in mind some daunting questions arise:
Just how can the participants be chosen? What should
be their range of expertise? Should they be specialists
or. generalists? Should there be a fair sampling and
representation of various viewpoints in the makeup of
the panel? Should all panelists be scientifically or
technically oriented? How can the public participate?
2 I n this discussion, I have used the term "look our as a substitute for the more usual
term "environmental scanning" to avoid the potential confusion in the use of word
."environmental" in this context. "Environmental scanning" encompasses the total
environment surrounding an activity: economics, markets, technology social
change, regulation, etc.
If the panel is large,, how can the right question be
asked of the right person to avoid burdening every one
with the chore of reviewing every question? What
questions should be asked?
What media should be employed? E-mail communica-
tions are preferred, not only because of the low cost of
transmission but because electronic responses are much
easier to collate. But requiring communications by e-
mail will effectively deny access to many people who
might have a great deal to contribute.
The Millennium Project Feasibility Study (conducted by
the United Nations University under contract to EPA) defined
three kinds of questions that might be asked of participants in a
panel of this sort.3
Forecasts of the occurrence of future developments.
Forecasts of future developments call for answers about
when an event is expected to occur or about the future
value of some trend or parameter. We include here
observations about some worsening aspect of the envi-
ronment and speculation about its possible conse-
quences.
The desirability of some future state. Questions deal-
ing with desirability ask for judgments about whether
an event ought to occur, and the basis for the recom-
mendations.
The means for achieving or avoiding a future state.
Questions dealing with policy involving the traditional
reporter's questions about implementation seem ap-
propriate here: who, what, when, where, and how
much? But to this set we must add: to what end? In
other words, questions about policy ought to be linked
closely to the objectives sought and the likelihood that
any policy will, in fact, accomplish its intended goals.
These three types of questions may require different kinds
of experts. The likelihood questions may involve hands-on
experience and intimate knowledge of the frontiers of research.
The desirability questions may involve a moral, political, or
social dimension quite distinct from the disciplinary expertise
involved in judging likelihood. The policy question may in-
volve knowledge of the art of the possible and political savvy.
With the advent of the wide use of Internet and electronic
bulletin boards, one is tempted to simply say, "Let the discus-
3 T. Gordon and J. Glenn, "Issues in Creating the Millennium Project" United
Nations University, funded by US EPA, October, 1993. Some of the material in this
paper is drawn from this source.
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sion of these sorts of questions be wide open. Use little struc-
ture. Let the conversation flow as it may." This, I think, will not
prove to be efficient Rather, I recommend a structure based on
the Delphi method developed at RAND in the early 60s and
used many times since.
The RAND researchers explored the use of expert panels to
address forecasting issues. Their reasoning went something like
this: experts, particularly when they agree, are more likely than
nonexperts to be correct about questions in their field. However,
RAND (and many others) found that bringing experts together
in a conference room introduces factors that may have little to
do with the issue at hand. For example, the loudest voice rather
than the soundest argument may carry the day; a person may be
reluctant to abandon a previously stated opinion in front of
one's peers. The give and take of such face to face confronta-
tions often gets in the way of a true debate.
The Delphi approach was designed to eliminate the prin-
ciple obstacles to conference room meetings of experts. In most
applications:
Several rounds are employed; general questions are
asked in the first round.
In a second round, reasons for extreme positions are
sought.
These reasons are fed back to the group in a third
round with instructions to reassess positions in view of
the reasons for extreme opinions.
To encourage a true debate, independent of personalities,
anonymity is required in the sense that no one knew who else is
participating. Further, to eliminate the force of oratory and
pedagogy, the reasons given for extreme opinions are synthe-
sized by the researchers in order to give all of them equal
"weight." These aspects: anonymity and feedback, represent the
two irreducible elements of a Delphi study.
In the early days, driving toward a consensus was impor-
tant. Today, consensus is less important for many investigators
than it used to be; now a useful product of such studies is
crystallization of reasons for dis-sensus. Furthermore, this pro-
cess is now seen as no more or less than a systematic means of
synthesizing the judgments of experts—the aggregate judgment
representing a kind of composite expert composed, in the do-
main of interest, of the expertise of all of the participants.
Some researchers have found that Delphi, when used in
forecasting, does not provide more accurate answers than other
methods and that consensus occurs as a result of pressure
brought on participants that have extreme opinions.
(Woudenberg, 1991) Even if this is so, our application here is
more modest than accurate forecasting: it is simply an efficient
way to gather, synthesize, and explore expert opinion.
There are major differences between a "classical" Delphi
and the use proposed here. First, we are not very concerned with
forecasting accuracy; rather, we want to surface observations
about possible deleterious developments and engage in a struc-
tured, multidisciplinary discussion about the potential evolution
and consequences of the developments. Second, this is not seen
as a "one-shot" study, but rather, an ongoing, continuous
inquiry. But the process uses anonymity and feedback to advan-
tage.
Because the number of respondents is usually small, a
"look out" panel will not produce statistically significant re-
sults; in other words, the results provided by the panel will not
predict the response of a larger population or even the findings
of a different panel. They represent the synthesis of opinion of
the particular group, no more or less. The value of this work will
rest with the ideas it generates, both those which evoke consen-
sus and those that do not. The arguments, for the extreme
positions also represent a useful product. This will not be a
substitute for analysis; it will provide only an early warning or
hints that deserve follow up.
The results produced by an EPA "look out" panel will
depend on the knowledge and cooperation of the panelists; for
this reason, it is essential to include persons who are likely to
contribute valuable ideas. In a statistically based study such as a
public opinion poll, participants are assumed to be representa-
tive of a larger population; in panels of this sort, nonrepresenta-
tive, knowledgeable persons are needed. So the first problem to
be addressed is how to select potential participants. EPA labora-
tory directors, division chiefs, state environmental personnel,
representatives of environmental action groups all come to
mind.
But how about "unknown" people who are outside of the
normal lines of communication but who may'be able to contrib-
ute new and valuable perceptions? Here are some suggestions:
use bulletins boards to identify contributors who have
something to say
get recommendations from university professors about
bright students
advertise for participants
Detailed design, of course, will rest with the EPA staff. But
here are some thoughts about structure and operations to
trigger discussion:
The panel is made up of invited expert participants
from EPA, the environmental community, as well as
the public, primarily from the U.S., but other countries
may be represented as well.
Anonymity (in the sense that comments will be
unattributed) is promised, and feedback of information
is used in sequential questionnaires.
Panelists are encouraged to initiate contact whenever
they see looming issues.
Non-EPA personnel are paid for their time and com-
munications costs.
The panel operates continuously.
Questionnaires are drafted by staff and sent to the
participants by fax, e-mail, and mail.
One part of every questionnaire will request percep-
tions about newly observed nascent issues; another
part will request comments on issues reported by oth-
ers in earlier rounds. Questions may also be included
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seeking judgments about goals and contemplated poli-
cies.
A "filtering" system will be used by staff to assure that
the right questions go to the correct persons, while not
missing the opportunity to gain contributions from
those outside of the topic area.
Review of responses is careful; reports are made peri-
odically and provided to the panelists.
Also, consider the possibility of:
establishing a set of indicators, the future of which can
be assessed by the panel in view of the issues they
discuss.
an annual meeting of participants.
Ted Gordon
January 25,1994
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EPA Headquarters Library
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Library of Congress
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