SEPA
 Assessment of the Worldwide
Market Potential for Oxidizing
                         0
    Coal Mine Ventilation Air
                  Methane

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v°/EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air and Radiation
(6202-J)
EPA 430-R-03-002
July 2003
                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM
                          The Coalbed Methane Outreach Program (CMOP) is  a part  of the US
                          Environmental  Protection Agency's (USEPA) Climate Protection Partnerships
                          Division. CMOP is a voluntary program that works with coal companies and
                          related industries to  identify technologies, markets, and  means of financing
                     the profitable recovery and use of  coal mine methane  (a greenhouse gas) that
                     would otherwise be vented to the atmosphere.

                     CMOP  assists  the  coal  industry  by  profiling coal  mine methane  project
                     opportunities, conducting mine-specific technical and economic assessments, and
                     identifying private, state, local, and federal  institutions and programs that could
                     catalyze project development.
                                                  DISCLAIMER

                      This analysis uses publicly available information. USEPA does not:

                         (a)   Make any warranty or representation, expressed or implied, with respect to
                              the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained in
                              this report, or that the use of any apparatus, method, or process disclosed in
                              this report may not infringe upon privately owned rights; or

                         (b)   Assume any liability with respect to the use of, or damages resulting from
                              the use of, any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this
                              report.

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             United States Environmental Protection Agency
                           SEPA
Assessment of the Worldwide Market
    Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine
             Ventilation Air Methane
                               July 2003

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This report was prepared under USEPA  Contract 68-W-00-093  by International
Resources Group.  The principal authors were  H. Lee Schultz,  Peter Carothers,
Robert  Watts,  and  Robyn  McGuckin.  The  authors  and  USEPA  gratefully
acknowledge the vision and direction provided  by Karl H. Schultz, Team Leader,
Coalbed Methane Program, in planning and overseeing the scope  and focus of this
assessment. In addition, industry experts from coal-producing countries around the
world also provided comments and suggestions that  significantly  advanced this
analysis. Specifically,  we  wish  to  recognize  the  assistance of  the  following
individuals who (a) contributed data for the technology characterization and the
country analyses and/or (b) served as peer reviewers of the draft report:

    •   Zhu Chao  (a),  Project Manager, China  Coalbed Methane Clearinghouse,
       Beijing, China

    •   Alexander Filippov (a, b), Programs Coordinator, Partnership for Energy and
       Environmental Reform, Kiev,  Ukraine

    •   Dr. Jiri Gavor (a, b),  Partner, ENA Ltd., Prague, Czech  Republic

    •   Brian  King  (a, b), Senior Consultant, Neill  and Gunter (Nova Scotia)  Ltd.,
       Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada

    •   Jan Kwarcinski (a),  Polish  Geological  Institute, Upper  Silesian Branch,
       Sosnowiec, Poland

    •   Philip J.D.  Lloyd (a), Energy Research  Institute,  University of Cape  Town,
       South  Africa

    •   Professor Emeritus Jan  Mutmansky (a,  b), Pennsylvania  State University,
       State College, Pennsylvania, United States

    •   Vijay  Nundlall  (a),  Inspector of Mines, Occupational  Hygiene,  Pretoria,
       South  Africa

    •   Peter Radgen (a, b), Project Manager, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany

    •   Joanne  Reilly  (b),   Senior  Geologist,  RAG  American   Holding,  Inc.,
       Waynesburg, Pennsylvania, United States

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                  •   Patrick Reinks  (b),  Ingersoll-Rand Company - Energy Systems, Davidson,
                     North Carolina, United States

                  •   Dr. Geoff Rigby (b), Reninna Consulting, New South Wales, Australia

                  •   Abouna  Saghafi (b), Principal  Research  Scientist, CSIRO  Exploration and
                     Mining, Sydney, Australia

                  •   Mario  Alberto Santillan-Gonzalez  (a,  b),  Mining  Engineer, Minerales
                     Monclova S.A. de C.V., Coahuila, Mexico

                  •   Igor A. Shvetz (a), Director, Ispat Karmet JSC, Karaganda, Kazakhstan

                  •   Umesh  Prasad Singh  (a,  b),  Deputy Chief  Engineer,  Coal  India, Ltd.,
                     Calcutta, India

                  •   Shi Su (b), CSIRO Exploration and Mining, Kenmore, Queensland, Australia

                  •   Dr. Oleg  Tailakov  (a,  b),  Director, Russia  Coalbed  Methane  Center,
                     Kemerovo, Russia

                  •   Jerry Triplett (b), Partnership  for Energy and Environmental Reform (PEER),
                     Kiev, Ukraine

                  •   Liu Wenge (a, b), Project Manager, China Coalbed Methane Clearinghouse,
                     Beijing, China

                  •   Richard Winschel  (b), CONSOL Energy,  South Park,  Pennsylvania, United
                     States

                  •   Ken Zak  (a, b), MEGTEC Systems, DePere, Wisconsin,  United States
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
CONTENTS


Acknowledgments	v

Glossary	xi

Acronyms	xiii

1.     Introduction	1

2.     Emissions	3
      2.1   Methane	3
      2.2   Coal Mine Methane	3
      2.3   Components and Qualities of CMM	3
      2.4   Baseline Emissions  Estimation Methodology	4
      2.5   Country-Specific Baseline VAM Emission Estimates	6
      2.6   Uncertainty in the Baseline Emission Estimates	7
      2.7   Emissions Projection Methodology	8
      2.8   VAM Emissions  Projections	9
      2.9   VAM Emissions  Projection Uncertainty	9

3.     Emission Reductions	11
      3.1   Technology Overview	11
           3.1.1   Thermal  Flow-Reversal Reactor	11
           3.1.2  Catalytic Flow-Reversal  Reactor	12
           3.1.3  Energy Conversion from a Flow-Reversal Reactor	13
           3.1.4  Other Technologies	13
      3.2   Cost Analysis	17
           3.2.1   Methodology	19
           3.2.2  Analysis of the MAC Curves	26
           3.2.3  Opportunity Cost of VAM Recovery and Use	29
           3.2.4  VAM Carbon Mitigation Cost in  the Absence of Power
                  Generation	30
           3.2.5  Uncertainties	30
           3.2.6  Estimating the Effects of Uncertainties on the MAC Curves... 37
           3.2.7  Worldwide  Market Potential	38

4.     Summary and Conclusions	39

5.     References	41

Appendix A. Country-Specific Analyses (2000-2020)	43

      VAM Oxidation Market Potential: China	49
      VAM Oxidation Market Potential: United States	53
      VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Ukraine	57


US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Australia	61
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Russia	65
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: South Africa	71
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Poland	73
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Kazakhstan	77
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: India	81
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: United Kingdom	83
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Mexico	87
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Germany	91
                   VAM Oxidation Market Potential: Czech Republic	95

             Appendix B. Sample Calculations	99

             Appendix C. Basis for Power Price Used in the Analyses	105

             Appendix D. Technology Developer/Vendor Contact Information	109

             Appendix E. CMOP Contact Information	113




             Tables

             Table 1. Countries Analyzed and 2000 VAM Emissions	7
             Table 2. Projected Annual VAM Liberation by Country,
                      2000-2020	10
             Table 3. Potential Worldwide Market for VAM Projects	38
             Table A. Summary of VAM Liberation Projections, 2000-2020	47
              Figures

              Figure 1.
              Figure 2.
              Figure 3.
              Figure 4.

              Figure 5.
              Figure 6.
              Figure 7.
              Figure 8.
              Figure 9.
              Figure 10.
              Figure 11.
Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of All
Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced Greenhouse
EffectSince Industrial Times	3
US Anthropogenic Methane Emissions	3
US Underground CMM Liberation by Source, 2000	4
Illustrative Ventilation Airflow and VAM
Concentration Variations	5
Thermal Flow-Reversal Reactor	12
Environmental  C & C's Fluidized Bed Concentrator	14
EDL Carbureted Gas Turbine Installation	15
MAC Analysis for the United States—Carbon Mitigation	27
MAC Analysis for the United States—Power Production	27
Global MAC Analysis—Carbon Mitigation	28
Global MAC Analysis—Power Production	28
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Figure 12.   Global Opportunity Cost Curve	29
Figure 13.   US Carbon Mitigation Cost in the Absence of Power
            Generation	30
Figure A-1.  MAC Analysis for China—Power Production	50
Figure A-2.  MAC Analysis for China—Carbon Mitigation	51
Figure A-3.  Opportunity Costs for China 	51
Figure A-4.  MAC Analysis for the United States—Power Production	54
Figure A-5.  MAC Analysis for the United States—Carbon Mitigation 	54
Figure A-6.  Opportunity Costs for the United States 	55
Figure A-7.  MAC Analysis for Ukraine—Power Production	58
Figure A-8.  MAC Analysis for Ukraine—Carbon Mitigation	59
Figure A-9.  Opportunity Costs for Ukraine	59
Figure A-10. MAC Analysis for Australia—Power Production	62
Figure A-11. MAC Analysis for Australia—Carbon Mitigation	62
Figure A-12. Opportunity Costs for Australia  	63
Figure A-13. MAC Analysis for Russia—Power Production	66
Figure A-14. MAC Analysis for Russia—Carbon Mitigation	67
Figure A-15. Opportunity Costs for Russia 	68
Figure A-16. MAC Analysis for Poland—Power Production	74
Figure A-17. MAC Analysis for Poland—Carbon Mitigation	74
Figure A-18. Opportunity Costs for Poland 	75
Figure A-19. MAC Analysis for Kazakhstan—Power Production	78
Figure A-20. MAC Analysis for Kazakhstan—Carbon Mitigation	78
Figure A-21. Opportunity Costs for Kazakhstan 	79
Figure A-22. MAC Analysis for the United Kingdom—Power Production	84
Figure A-23. MAC Analysis for the United Kingdom—Carbon Mitigation	84
Figure A-24. Opportunity Costs for the United Kingdom 	85
Figure A-25. MAC Analysis for Mexico—Power Production	88
Figure A-26. MAC Analysis for Mexico—Carbon  Mitigation	88
Figure A-27. Opportunity Costs for Mexico  	89
Figure A-28. MAC Analysis for Germany—Power Production	92
Figure A-29. MAC Analysis for Germany—Carbon Mitigation	92
Figure A-30. Opportunity Costs for Germany	93
Figure A-31. MAC Analysis for the Czech Republic—Power Production	96
Figure A-32. MAC Analysis for the Czech Republic—Carbon Mitigation	96
Figure A-33. Opportunity Costs for the Czech Republic	97
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
GLOSSARY
Anthropogenic
Bleeder shaft
CO,
Gob
Gob gas


Greenhouse gas
Tonne

VAM
Of, relating to, or resulting from human influences on natural
systems.

Smaller in diameter than main  mine ventilation shafts, used at
some mines to increase ventilation at individual or groups of
longwall panels.

Methane,  a greenhouse gas  with  a 100-year atmospheric
forcing factor approximately 21 times that of CO2.

Carbon dioxide,  the reference greenhouse gas with a global
warming potential of 1.

Superjacent  rock (and coal) strata that fracture and cave into
the mining void following coal extraction as the longwall face
and  hydraulic  roof supports  advance (termed goaf outside of
the United States).

Methane  that is released into the gob during and subsequent
to gob formation.

Any of a  number of gases  that trap  heat  in the  Earth's
atmosphere, including water vapor, CO2, CH4, nitrous oxide,
ozone, hydrofluorocarbons (MFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

Metric ton (1000 kilograms).

Ventilation air methane; the methane contained in ventilation
airflows exiting gassy underground coal mines.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                           COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
ACRONYMS






Bm3      Billion cubic meters




Btu       British thermal unit




CBM      Coalbed methane




CFRR     Catalytic flow-reversal reactor




CGT      Carbureted gas turbine




CMM     Coal mine methane




CMOP    Coalbed Methane Outreach Program




CO2e     Carbon dioxide equivalent




GHG     Greenhouse gas




IPCC      Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change




kWh      KiloWatt-hour




MAC      Marginal abatement cost




MBtu      Million British thermal units
Mm3
UG
Million cubic meters
MMT     Million metric tons (million tonnes)





MW      MegaWatt (million Watts)





MSHA    Mine Safety and Health Administration





NPV      Net present value





TFRR     Thermal flow-reversal reactor
Underground (coal production)
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane









               USEPA     United States Environmental Protection Agency





               VAM       Ventilation air methane





               VOC       Volatile organic compound
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                    COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
1.    INTRODUCTION
Methane vented from coal mine  exhaust shafts constitutes an unused source of
energy and a potent atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG).  Technologies  that can
reduce  ventilation  air methane  (VAM)  emissions  while  harnessing  methane's
energy offer significant benefits to the world community.  Thermal and  catalytic
oxidation  technologies  are  both candidates  for  utilizing  the  low   methane
concentrations  contained  in  VAM  streams. This report estimates global  VAM
emissions and the potential for their mitigation.

This assessment focuses  on the major  coal-producing countries worldwide. Based
on  2000 data  quantifying country-specific methane  emissions from underground
coal mining, the countries analyzed comprise an  estimated 85 percent of global
emissions.

Information provided  by  volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation equipment
suppliers reveals  that technology can oxidize  VAM concentrations  down to a
practical limit of 0.15 percent methane in air and can reliably oxidize and produce
energy from VAM concentrations down to 0.2 percent. Because such equipment is
employed at industrial installations around the world for VOC emission control, a
sound  database of  oxidizer  equipment  capital  and  operating  costs  is available.
Similar  data for other system components,  such as heat  recovery and energy
production units, are based on less definitive information.

Using data obtained from both public and private sources,  this US Environmental
Protection  Agency   (USEPA)  assessment  estimates   current  and   projected
underground coal  production, ventilation  airflows,  and unitized VAM  emission
values  (i.e., specific  emissions). Using those  estimates  in  combination with
equipment cost data enabled  the development of marginal  abatement cost (MAC)
curves  that illustrate,  for  each  study country  and  the  world overall,  the costs
associated with  mitigating various levels of VAM emission.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
2.    EMISSIONS
2.1    Methane


The  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change
(IPCC) estimates that methane (CH4) is 21  times more
potent than  carbon dioxide  (CO2) over  a  100-year
timeframe  in trapping heat in the atmosphere.1 It  is
second only to CO2 as a contributor to global warm-
ing, as shown in Figure 1.2


2.2    Coal Mine Methane
  HCFCs,
  PFCs, SF6
Trap Ozone
13%
Figure 1. Contribution of Anthropogenic
 Emissions of All Greenhouse Gases to
 the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect since
Industrial Times (measured in Watts/m2)
Coalbed  methane  (CBM)  is  formed  during  the  coalification  process  and  is
contained in coal seams and adjacent rock strata. Unless it is intentionally drained
from the coal and rock, the process of coal extraction will  liberate CBM into the
mine workings where it is referred to as coal mine methane  (CMM). CMM poses a
serious  hazard  to  workers, and  mine  operators  employ large-scale ventilation
systems to  remove  CMM from  mine workings. Figure  2
reveals that in the US methane released to the  atmosphere
from  coal  mines  represents  almost 10 percent  of the
country's  anthropogenic  methane emissions.3  Ventilation
systems at underground mines account for the bulk of those
emissions.
2.3   Components and Qualities of CMM


Methane  emissions to  the  atmosphere can  result  from
surface mining as  overburden  is  removed and coal  is
extracted, underground mining as coal is removed and gob
          Natural
          Gas
          Systems
          18.9%
   Enteric
   Fermentation
   20.2%
Coal
Mining I
                                                             Landfills
                                                             33.1%
               Other
               Sources
               1.1%
Manure
Management
6.1%
     Wastewater
     Treatment
     4.7%
   Petroleum
   Systems
   3.6%
      Stationary
      Sources
Rice   1.2%
Cultivation
1.2%
        Figure 2. US Anthropogenic
            Methane Emissions
1 This report uses the global warming potentials from the IPCC's Second Assessment Report because
these values are used in emissions reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change. The IPCC updated these values in the Third Assessment Report and the  relative
impact of methane as compared to carbon dioxide increased to 23.

2 IPCC(2001).

3 USEPA (2002a).
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
         COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
   Emissions
   Avoided/
   Methane
   Used
   27%
    Drained
    CMM
    Available
    7%
is  formed, and  post-mining  activities such  as  coal storage  and transportation.
USEPA  (2002a)  reports that in the US in 2000,  approximately 65  percent of
methane emitted from coal  mining came from underground mines, 14 percent from
surface mines, and 21 percent from post-mining activities.

Methane liberated by underground  coal mining can  vary  in  quality depending on
where and how  it is liberated. Because there are  fewer opportunities for  air to
dilute it, CBM drained from coal  seams in advance of mining is  of very high
concentration, often  meeting  natural  gas  pipeline  quality specifications.  CMM
released from coal and rock strata as gob forms during longwall mining operations
(gob gas) unavoidably mixes with mine air thus reducing its concentration. Gob gas
generally  is considered to  be  of medium  quality (approximately 30-90  percent
methane and containing contaminants such as nitrogen, oxygen, carbon dioxide,
and water vapor). CMM released to  the atmosphere by the mine ventilation system
is the lowest concentration, typically below  1 percent.

Figure 3  illustrates the relative magnitude of methane emissions to the atmosphere
in  the US  from  mine ventilation and methane  drainage systems.4 As  the  figure
                       reveals, 27 percent of  methane  from underground coal
                       mines  is drained  and  used, 7  percent is drained  but
                       released to the atmosphere,  and 66 percent escapes  to the
                       atmosphere through ventilation systems.
            Ventilation
            Emissions
            66%
                                  2.4   Baseline Emissions Estimation
                                         Methodology

                                  This section describes the general analytical methodology
                                  applied to  estimate and  project VAM emissions.  Appen-
                                  dix A  explains the  application of this methodology to
Figure 3. US Underground CMM       each country in the analysis.
  Liberation by Source, 2000
                                  Variations   in   ventilation   air  methane  flow   and
           concentration affect the size (ventilation air-processing capacity) and cost of an
           oxidation system emplacement. For example, Figure 4  provides a graph  of such
           variation over time at an underground coal  mine bleeder shaft in the eastern United
           States.5 As the figure illustrates,  over a 2.25-year period ventilation airflow at this
              4 USEPA (2002b).
              5 Data obtained from the US Mine Safety and Health Administration.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
150
5"
g c
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t u
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       Figure 4. Illustrative Ventilation Airflow and VAM Concentration Variations
shaft ranged from  just  over  50  to  almost 120  m3  per  second  and VAM
concentration ranged from less than 0.5 to over 0.7 percent.

To  account  for such variations, the first step in evaluating the potential world
market for VAM oxidation equipment involved characterizing VAM flows in major
coal-producing  countries. To  develop a ventilation air emissions baseline,  USEPA
sought to  compile up-to-date,  detailed  data for the year  2000 for  each study
country.  Rather than relying on  emissions factors or other generalized  approaches
to estimate emissions, when possible USEPA employed the following "bottom up"
analytical approach to characterize methane emissions at the shaft level in terms of
ventilation airflow  rates and VAM concentrations:

    1.  For each study country, typical ventilation shaft airflows were quantified
       and both a  flow range and a typical value6 were defined.

    2.  VAM  concentrations  also  were quantified for  each  country  and  both a
       concentration range and  a typical value were defined.

Additionally,  total  VAM emissions for 2000 were tabulated for each country. The
combination  of  VAM   characterization  data  and  VAM  emissions  for 2000
constituted the study baseline for each country under evaluation.
5 While conceptually simple, the variation in the type and level of detail of the data available from
country to country often made the country-specific VAM characterization challenging. For example,
not all countries provided both ventilation airflow and VAM concentration data. For countries that did
provide such data, some provided a range as well as a point value (variously reported as average,
weighted average, typical, mean, or median), while others provided either a range or a point value.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              Data for US  mines were the most  detailed.  The US Mine Safety  and Health
              Administration (MSHA) takes ventilation  air samples at gassy underground  coal
              mine ventilation  airshafts on at least  a  quarterly  basis.  MSHA provided sampling
              data for the past two-and-a-half years. Collating the data for each shaft allowed an
              analysis of ventilation airflow and methane concentration to quantify the range and
              typical  values for those parameters and to illustrate how they vary over time. An
              understanding of such  variation is important when defining operational parameters
              for a given project (e.g., flow-through  capacity, supplemental  fuel requirements). It
              should  be noted, however, that although  the quarterly data available  from MSHA
              offer valuable  insight  into flow and concentration variations, project developers
              will need to obtain such  data on an  hourly or daily basis to support site-specific
              project planning.

              While  other   coal-producing  countries  lacked  detailed,  shaft-specific   VAM
              characterization  data  comparable  to that obtained from MSHA  for US mines,
              USEPA secured country-level VAM emissions  data from  open literature and in-
              country coal-mining experts. These data  allowed for  similar, albeit less detailed,
              bottom-up analyses.  For the United Kingdom,  however, which  represents just
              under   1  percent  of  estimated  world  2000  VAM  emissions,  key   VAM
              characterization data were  unavailable. Thus,  for  the  UK USEPA employed  the
              following "top-down" analytical approach:

              1.  Used estimates  of 2000 overall CMM emissions for  developed  countries
                 previously published  by USEPA  (2001).

              2.  Estimated  methane emissions from ventilation systems by adjusting the overall
                 coal-mining emission estimates using country-specific data disaggregating (a)
                 underground  from surface mining  emissions and  (b) methane captured by
                 drainage systems versus methane in the ventilation system.


              2.5    Country-Specific Baseline VAM Emission Estimates

              To represent  the  overall ventilation  air  oxidation market,  USEPA attempted to
              acquire emissions data for major coal-producing countries worldwide.  Table 1 lists
              the  study countries  in  descending  order  of  annual  total  coal  mining-related
              methane release. These countries comprised 28.3  Bm3 of total methane release in
              2000, or 85.8 percent of worldwide methane emissions from coal mining. Thus, to
              gain perspective on the overall world market potential  for VAM oxidation, USEPA
              adjusted (increased) the  2000  study country total VAM emissions estimate  (14.2
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Bm3) by 17 percent,7 yielding an overall world total VAM  emission estimate for
2000 of 16.6 Bm3 or 237.1 MMT of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). USEPA acknowledges,
however, that this estimate of world VAM emissions is only an approximation and
that not all of the VAM emissions estimated for the world as a whole  or for a given
country necessarily will support viable VAM oxidation projects (see section 2.6).

                Table 1. Countries Analyzed and 2000 VAM Emissions*

Country**
China
United States
Russia
Ukraine
Australia
Germany
Poland
India
Kazakhstan
South Africa
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Mexico
Study total
Other countries
World total
2000 Methane
Emission***
(Bnf)
12.0
5.5
2.7
2.0
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.1
28.3
4.7
33.0

Percent of
World Total
36.4
16.5
8.1
6.0
4.2
3.7
3.3
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.1
1.1
0.4
85.8
14.2
100

Analysis
Performed A
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
T
B
B



2000 VAM
Emissions
(Bnf)
6.5
2.5
0.6
2.1
0.7
0.09
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.06
0.1
14.2
2.4
16.6
2000 VAM
Emissions
(MMTC02e)
92.3
36.0
9.2
30.1
9.5
1.2
5.7
4.0
4.5
5.8
2.2
0.8
1.9
203.4
33.7
237.1
Percent of
Study Total
VAM
45.4
17.7
4.5
14.8
4.7
0.6
2.8
2.0
2.2
2.8
1.1
0.4
1.0
100.0


 *  Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
 **  In order of 2000 methane emissions.
 *** From USEPA (2001 and 2002c) for developed and developing countries, respectively.
 A  B = Bottom-up, T = Top-down
2.6    Uncertainty in the Baseline Emission Estimates

Uncertainties in the baseline emission estimates include the following:

1.  For non-US mines with VAM flow and concentration data, the comparability of
    the mean, average, and typical values reported is uncertain.
 100/85.8 = 1.166.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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41
"""" •>*                  Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                2.  The extent to which the ventilation airflow and methane concentration mean,
                   average, or typical values will represent actual  conditions at any given mine is
                   not known. While site-specific conditions likely fall within the ranges provided,
                   a  project  developer  will  need to  thoroughly  characterize  VAM  flows,
                   concentrations, and variability.

                3.  The analysis would be improved if VAM  flow and concentration data were
                   available for all countries, thereby allowing a comparable  bottom-up analysis
                   to be performed in all cases.


                2.7    Emissions Projection Methodology8

                Baseline VAM  emission estimates  for  2000  provide only a starting  point for
                emission projections.  Equipment manufacturers design  VAM oxidation equipment
                to function for almost two decades,  with current oxidizer manufacturers expecting
                an approximate 16-year useful life for their systems. Recognizing that uncertainties
                associated  with  coal  production   and  VAM  emission  projections  increase
                dramatically as the projection timeframe is extended, USEPA  selected the  period
                2000-2020 as the  focus of this analysis, thus making the study period  consistent
                with oxidizer manufacturer's expected equipment lifetimes while not unnecessarily
                increasing analytical uncertainty.

                The analytical process for projecting VAM emissions (in the absence of any VAM
                mitigation efforts) built on the baseline emission estimation methodology described
                above.  For  emission  estimates  using  the bottom-up methodology, projections
                follow these steps:

                1.  Underground coal production projections were tabulated for the  study period.
                   Coal production projections were only available for a few years  in the 2000-
                   2020 period, from which production estimates for intervening and subsequent
                   years were interpolated and extrapolated, respectively.

                2.  For  each study country,  a VAM specific  emission factor was derived from
                   baseline data quantifying VAM emissions and underground  coal production for
                   2000.
                8 Example calculations illustrating the bottom-up and top-down analytical approaches are presented
                in Appendix B.

  US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
3.  Future VAM emissions were calculated for each  country. Future  annual  coal
    production  estimates and  the VAM emission factors yielded annual  VAM
    emission projections.

For the United Kingdom the top-down emission estimates provided the basis for
projecting emissions via the following steps:

1.  Future overall coal mining methane emissions were taken from USEPA (2001)
    that estimated future total coal mining methane emissions for 2005 and 2010.

2.  Using data  that distinguishes  (a)  underground from surface  mining emissions
    and  (b)  methane drained versus methane released  from  ventilation,  VAM
    emissions were estimated.

3.  Emissions  were  calculated  for  non-reported  years  by  interpolating  and
    extrapolating from the existing estimates.


2.8   VAM Emissions Projections

Table 2 provides annual, country-specific VAM emission estimates from 2000 to
2020,  which reflect expected underground coal  production for that period. By
providing insight into the rate of growth or decline  in expected VAM emissions
over time, these projections  allowed  country-specific estimates of VAM oxidizing
capacity requirements, system design specifications,  and costs  (see section  3.2).
Data in the table reveal that, worldwide, VAM emissions are expected to increase
by  30  percent between  2000 and 2020 to 308  million tonnes  of CO2e.  VAM
emission increases are projected to occur in all study countries with the exception
of the Czech  Republic, Germany,  Poland, and the  United Kingdom. Projections for
China show the greatest absolute increase (to almost 130 million tonnes CO2e).


2.9   VAM Emissions Projection Uncertainty

Uncertainties in projecting VAM emissions to the year 2020 include:

1.  The accuracy  of the  VAM  emissions  projections  is related  directly  to  the
    accuracy  of the coal  production estimates and specific VAM emission factors
    derived in this analysis.

2.  In  many  countries, uncertainties  in the coal industry including privatization,
    competition   from  gas-fired  power  generation,   methane  management


US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                  technology improvements (e.g., directional drilling), and environmental policy
                  affect both coal production and VAM release.

                   Table 2. Projected Annual VAM Liberation (MMT CO2e) by Country, 2000-2020
Country* 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 % Change
China
United States
Ukraine
Australia
Russia
South Africa
Poland
Kazakhstan
India
United Kingdom
Mexico
Germany
Czech Republic
Study Total
Other Countries
World Total
92.3
36.0
30.1
9.5
9.2
5.8
5.7
4.5
4.0
2.2
1.9
1.2
0.8
203.4
33.7
237.1
101.6
39.8
37.5
10.5
10.8
7.0
5.6
4.7
4.5
2.1
2.2
1.0
0.8
228.1
37.8
265.9
110.9
40.6
41.3
11.6
11.2
7.0
5.0
4.7
4.8
2.1
1.9
0.6
0.7
242.5
40.1
282.6
120.1
41.1
42.3
12.3
11.6
7.0
4.8
4.7
5.1
2.0
2.0
0.6
0.6
254.2
42.1
296.3
129.3
39.9
43.2
13.6
12.0
7.0
4.5
4.7
5.4
2.0
2.0
0.6
0.5
264.7
43.8
308.5
* In order of 2000 VAM emissions
40.1
10.7
43.3
42.3
29.7
22.2
-21.6
5.5
36.1
-9.6
4.2
-52.7
-42.8

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
3.    EMISSION  REDUCTIONS
3.1    Technology Overview

USEPA (2000) identified two technologies for destroying or beneficially using the
methane contained in ventilation air: the VOCSIDIZER,9 a thermal flow-reversal
reactor developed by MEGTEC Systems (De  Pere, Wisconsin, United States), and a
catalytic  flow-reversal reactor developed expressly for mine  ventilation air  by
Canadian  Mineral  and  Energy  Technologies  (CANMET—Varennes,  Quebec,
Canada).  Both  technologies  employ similar  principles  to  oxidize  methane
contained in  mine ventilation airflows. Based on laboratory and field  experience,
both units can sustain operation  (i.e.,  can maintain oxidation)  with ventilation  air
having uniform methane  concentrations down to approximately 0.1  percent. For
practical  field applications where methane  concentrations are likely to  vary over
time, however, this analysis assumes that a  practical average lower concentration
limit at which oxidizers will function reliably is 0.15 percent.

In addition, a variety of other technologies  such  as boilers, engines, and turbines
may use ventilation airflows as combustion  air. At least two other  technology
families may also prove to be viable candidates for beneficially using VAM. These
are VOC concentrators and new lean-fuel gas turbines.

3.1.1     Thermal Flow-Reversal Reactor

Figure  5 shows  a  schematic  of  the Thermal  Flow-Reversal Reactor (TFRR). The
equipment consists of a bed of silica gravel or ceramic heat-exchange medium with
a set of electric  heating  elements  in  the center. The TFRR process employs the
principle of regenerative  heat exchange between  a gas and a  solid bed of heat-
exchange  medium. To start  the  operation,  electric heating elements  preheat the
middle of the bed to the temperature required to initiate methane oxidation (above
1,000°C  [1,832°F]) or hotter. Ventilation air  at  ambient temperature enters and
flows through the reactor in one  direction, and its temperature  increases until
oxidation of the methane takes place near the center of the bed.
 1 VOCSIDIZER is a registered trademark of MEGTEC Systems.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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O-
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                       Valve 2
              Air&
                       Valve 1
              Valve #1 open =	1
              Valve #2 open =	'
              *Heat recovery piping
              not shown

>


I

^


;







Heat Exchange Medium
| Heat t
^ Exchanger
Heat Exchange Medium

^
t


>
|
.^
                                                        Valve 1
                                                               ->   Air,
                                                                   H2O
                                                               _k.   Heat*
                                  Figure 5. Thermal Flow-Reversal Reactor

                The hot products of oxidation continue through the bed, losing heat to the far side
                of the bed  in the process. When the far side of the bed is sufficiently hot, the
                reactor automatically reverses the direction  of ventilation  airflow. The ventilation
                air now enters the far (hot)  side of the  bed, where it encounters auto-oxidation
                temperatures near the center of the bed and then oxidizes. The hot gases  again
                transfer heat to the near (cold) side of  the bed and exit the reactor. Then, the
                process again reverses.

                As USEPA (2000) points out, TFRR units are  effectively employed worldwide to
                oxidize   industrial  VOC  streams.  Furthermore,  the  ability  of  MEGTEC's
                VOCSIDIZER to oxidize VAM has been demonstrated  in the field.
                3.1.2     Catalytic Flow-Reversal Reactor

                Catalytic  flow-reversal   reactors  adapt  the  thermal  flow-reversal  technology
                described above  by including a catalyst to reduce the auto-oxidation temperature
                of  methane by several  hundred degrees  Celsius  (to as low as 350°C  [662°F]).
                CANMET has  demonstrated this system in pilot plants and is now in the process of
                licensing  Neill and Gunter  (Nova  Scotia)  Ltd. of  Dartmouth, Nova Scotia,  to
                commercialize the design (under the name VAMOX).

                CANMET is also  studying energy recovery options for profitable turbine electricity
                generation. Injecting a small amount of methane (gob gas or other source) increases
                the  methane   concentration   in  ventilation  air  to  make  the  turbine  function
  US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                           COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
efficiently. Waste heat from the oxidizer is also used to pre-heat the compressed air
before it enters the expansion side of the gas turbine.

3.1.3     Energy Conversion from a Flow-Reversal Reactor

There are several methods of converting the heat of oxidation from a flow-reversal
reactor to electric power, which is the most marketable form of energy in most
locations. The two methods being studied by MEGTEC and CANMET  are:

  •   Use water as a working fluid. Pressurize the water and force it through an air-
      to-water heat exchanger  in a section of the reactor that will provide a non-
      destructive temperature environment (below  800°C [1472°F]).  Flash the hot
      pressurized water to  steam and use the steam  to  drive a steam turbine-
      generator.  If a market for  steam or hot  water is available,  send exhausted
      steam to that market.  If none is available, condense the steam and return the
      water to the pump to repeat the process.

  •   Use air as a working fluid. Pressurize ventilation air or ambient air and send it
      through an  air-to-air  heat  exchanger that is  embedded in a section  of the
      reactor  that  stays below 800°C (1472°F).  Direct the  compressed hot  air
      through a gas turbine-generator. If gob gas is available, use  it to raise the
      temperature of the working fluid to more nearly match the design temperature
      of the turbine inlet.  Use the turbine exhaust for cogeneration,  if thermal
      markets are available.

Since affordable  heat exchanger temperature limits are below those used in modern
prime movers, efficiencies for both of the energy conversion strategies listed  above
will  be fairly modest. The  use of a gas turbine, the second method listed,  is the
energy conversion technology assumed for the cost estimates in this report. At a
VAM concentration of 0.5 percent one vendor expects an overall plant efficiency in
the neighborhood  of 17 percent after accounting for power allocated to drive the
fans that force ventilation air through the reactor.

3.1.4     Other Technologies

This market assessment focuses on the TFRR and CFRR technologies because their
vendors  are  actively  pursuing  coal  mine VAM  as  a  viable market for their
equipment. However, USEPA also is in the process of reviewing a number of other
technologies  that may  prove able to play a role in and enhance opportunities  for
VAM oxidation projects. These are briefly described below.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              Concentrators
              Volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrators offer another possible economical
              option for application to VAM. During the past 10 years the use of such  units to
              raise the concentration of VOCs in industrial process-air exhaust streams  that are
              sent to VOC oxidizers has increased. Smaller oxidizer units are now used to treat
              these exhaust streams, which in turn has reduced capital and operating costs for the
              oxidizer  systems. Ventilation  air typically contains about  0.5  percent  methane
              concentration  by  volume.  Conceivably,  a  concentrator  might be  capable  of
              increasing the methane  concentration in ventilation airflows to about 20 percent.
              The highly reduced  gas volume with  a  higher  concentration of methane  might
              serve   beneficially  as   a fuel  in  a  gas  turbine,  reciprocating   engine,  etc.
              Concentrators  also may  prove effective in raising the methane concentration  of
              very dilute VAM flows to levels that will support oxidation in  a TFRR or CFRR.

              There are multiple styles of concentrators employed in industrial applications, with
              carbon  and zeolite  wheels generally  being the most  popular for hydrocarbon
              reduction purposes. Fluid bed concentrators, however, are expected to offer greater
              promise for methane concentration. The fluid bed concentrator consists of a series
              of perforated  plates or  trays  supporting  an adsorbent  medium (e.g., activated
              carbon  beads). The  process exhaust stream  enters from the bottom and passes
              upward through the  adsorption trays where it fluidizes  the  adsorbent medium to
              enhance capture  of  organic compounds.  The adsorbent medium,  which is now
              heavier because  of  the  adsorbed organic  material,  falls  to  the  bottom  of the
              adsorber section and is fed to the desorber.
   Figure 6. Environmental C & C's Fluidized Bed
                 Concentrator
The desorber increases the temperature of the
medium, causing  it to release  the concen-
trated  organic  material  into  a  low-volume,
inert gas stream. In this continuous operation,
the regenerated medium  is fed back  to  the
adsorber vessel for reuse.

Although several vendors offer  concentrator
systems,  Environmental C & C, Inc.  (Clifton
Park,  New York) manufactures the fluid bed
concentrator  (see  Figure  6).  With  USEPA
assistance, Environmental C &  C  is testing that
system's  efficacy on simulated VAM  using a
series of methane-in-air mixtures.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
              COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane

Lean-Fuel Gas Turbines
A number of engineering teams are striving to  modify selected gas turbine models
to operate directly on  VAM  or  on VAM that has  been enhanced with more
concentrated fuels,  including  concentrated  VAM  (see  "Concentrator"  section
above) or gob gas. These efforts include:

       Carbureted gas turbine. A carbureted gas turbine (CGT) is a gas turbine in
       which the fuel enters  as a  homogeneous mixture via the air inlet to an
       aspirated turbine. It requires a fuel/air mixture of  1.6 percent by volume, so
       most  VAM sources  would require enrichment. Combustion takes  place in
       an  external  combustor where the reaction  is  at a  lower  temperature
       (1200°C [2192°F])  than for a normal  turbine thus eliminating any NOx
       emissions. Energy Developments Limited (EDL)  of Australia  is testing the
       CGT (see  Figure 7) on ventilation air at the Appin coal mine in New South
       Wales, Australia. EDL is using a modified Solar  gas turbine model 3000R
       (rated at 2.7 MW) for this demonstration.

       Lean-fueled turbine with catalytic
       combustor.  CSIRO Exploration  &
       Mining  of Australia, a  government
       research organization,  is develop-
       ing a catalytic combustion  gas tur-
       bine (CCGT) that can use methane
       in coal  mine  ventilation  air.  The
       CCGT technology being developed
       oxidizes VAM in conjunction with
       a catalyst. The turbine  compresses
       a very  lean  fuel/air mixture  and
       combusts  it in a catalytic combus-
       tor. The catalyst allows the meth-
       ane to ignite at a lower, more eas-     Figure 7. EDL Carbureted Gas Turbine Installation
       ily  achieved  temperature.  As with the CGT, CSIRO's non-conventional
       turbine  will not  use combustion air for internal cooling, thus  allowing the
       air  intake to  contain fuel.  CSIRO  hopes to operate the system  on a 1.0
       percent  methane mixture  to  minimize supplemental  fuel requirements.
       CSIRO  also will incorporate  a  latent heat  storage system  to even  out
       variations in VAM concentration, and  is planning  for future research  and
       commercialization of the VAM CCGT.

       Lean-fuel  microturbine. Another   US  company,  Ingersol-Rand  Energy
       Systems, is developing a  microtubine that  is planned  to operate on  a
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                     methane-in-air mixture of less than  1 percent. This lean-fuel microturbine is
                     a version of their PowerWorks Microturbine  System.  The microturbine is
                     rated at 70 kW and consists of a generator, gasifier turbine, combustor,
                     recuperator,  power  turbine, and generator. The system  is enclosed in a
                     sound-attenuating enclosure  and  can be  located  indoors or  outdoors.
                     Ingersol-Rand  recently introduced  a 250 kW microturbine  to the power
                     industry. Additional  R&D effort is required to complete the system design
                     on the 70 kW unit and to adapt the 250 kW unit to run in a lean-fuel mode.
                     Ingersol-Rand is seeking funding to further pursue this market.

                     Lean-fueled catalytic  microturbine. Two US companies, FlexEnergy and
                     Capstone  Turbine  Corporation,  are  jointly  developing  a   line  of
                     microturbines, starting at  30 kW,  that will  operate on  a  methane-in-air
                     mixture of 1.3 percent. FlexEnergy, using  funding from the US Department
                     of Energy/National Renewable Energy  Laboratory and the California Energy
                     Commission, expects to have a 30 kW prototype unit ready for field service
                     in mid-2003.  Each unit's components fit inside  a compact container that
                     requires no field assembly. The  single moving part,  rotating  on an  air
                     bearing, is a  shaft on  which  is mounted the compressor and the turbine
                     expander. Other components  include:  a recuperator  that preheats the  VAM
                     mixture, a catalytic  combustion chamber with low-temperature  ignition, a
                     generator, and a generator cooling section. To  better  serve the VAM market,
                     FlexEnergy  is  investigating  designs  that  will  reduce  required   VAM
                     concentration to below 1.0 percent and increase unit sizes to over 100 kW.

                     Hybrid coal and VAM-fueled gas turbine. CSIRO  is also  developing an
                     innovative  system   to  oxidize  and  generate  electricity with  VAM in
                     combination with waste coal. CSIRO  is constructing a 1.2-MW pilot  plant
                     that cofires waste coal and VAM in a rotary kiln, captures the  heat in a
                     high-temperature air-to-air exchanger,  and uses the clean, hot air to power
                     a gas turbine.  Depending on site needs and economic conditions,  VAM can
                     provide from about 15 to over 80 percent (assuming a VAM mixture of 1.0
                     percent) of  the system's  fuel needs,  while  waste  coal  provides  the
                     remainder. Waste coal and ventilation  air enter the rotating kiln in the  same
                     direction. The coal's  heat of combustion  ignites  the VAM  and a  large
                     percentage of  that heat  is transferred  to an air-to-air  heat exchanger that
                     operates at about 900°C (1,652°F). Ambient air, pressurized by the  gas
                     turbine's (Allison C-18) compressor,  flows  through the  heat exchanger's
                     secondary loop,  heats to 900°C, and expands through the turbine's power
                     section.  Part of the compressor's output is directed  to the turbine cooling
                     path. This system is especially well  suited for  mines, such as those in
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
       Australia, that generate a significant percentage of waste coal and that can
       market the lightweight expanded aggregate that is produced in the kiln.

VAM Used as an Ancillary Fuel
While the primary  focus of this  assessment is  on  strategies that oxidize major
fractions of global VAM  emissions, a brief mention of technologies  that use VAM
only as an ancillary or supplemental fuel is  in order. Such technologies rely on a
primary fuel other than VAM and are able to accept VAM as all or part of their
combustion air to replace a small fraction of the  primary fuel.  The largest example
of ancillary VAM use occurred at the Appin  Colliery in  Australia, where 54 one-
MW Caterpillar engines used mine ventilation air containing VAM as combustion
air. Similarly, the Australian utility, Powercoal, is installing a system to use VAM as
combustion  air for a  large  coal-fired steam power plant.  In  addition,  the  US
Department of Energy funded a research project  to use VAM in  concentrations  up
to 0.5 percent  as combustion  air in a turbine manufactured by Solar. Even  the
CSIRO hybrid coal and VAM project described in the preceding paragraph falls in
the category of ancillary  VAM use when waste coal combustion is maximized and
VAM use  is limited to prescribed levels of combustion air.


3.2   Cost Analysis

Although  the lowest project costs  will be associated with installations that simply
oxidize VAM, this analysis assumes that VAM projects will include equipment to
allow  heat recovery  and  electricity generation  so  as  to obtain  revenues from
electricity sales. If energy revenues are insufficient to defray capital  and operating
costs plus a  reasonable profit, they incur a  net project cost, expressed as cost per
tonne  of  CO2e  of  the abated  methane emissions.  Unitized net  project cost10
decreases as VAM concentration increases.

This analysis does  not take project size, a less influential parameter, into account
because small ventilation flows, which occur largely in developing countries, cause
only minor cost increases that  may  be largely offset by lower costs for  labor and
miscellaneous supplies in these  countries.
10 Project costs were not adjusted to account for local differences in labor costs, tariffs, etc. because
the initial system cost estimates available at the time of this assessment were too preliminary for such
refinements to  be meaningful. Furthermore, it is expected that local costs will have only a minor
impact on overall system cost because 1) most of the cost relates to capital costs, which are relatively
immune  to local cost conditions, and 2) some of these cost differences offset each other (e.g.,  lower
labor cost would be offset by high importation fees). Moving costs are included as O & M cost.

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                   COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              Project costs, for this analysis, are the net present value (NPV)11 of (1) initial capital
              cost (including  profit), plus (2) annual operating costs, minus (3) revenues from
              electric power sales.  The net project cost of projects implemented  at any given
              VAM concentration represents a marginal cost (i.e., the additional cost that must be
              offset to make the  project profitable). Marginal costs increase with projects having
              lower and lower VAM concentrations, and one can use marginal abatement cost
              (MAC) curves to depict this relationship.

              To  construct a MAC curve for VAM  projects, one first must calculate  the cost of
              implementing a project over a range  of VAM  concentrations and  then  identify the
              number of tonnes  of VAM abated,  within  a large sample  of VAM emissions, that
              matches  each  discrete  concentration percentage.  To  reflect  cost  differences
              resulting from changes in VAM concentration, USEPA estimated the net marginal
              costs (per tonne of  CO2e) for each discrete level of VAM concentration.

                        $NPV per tonne CO2e = Capital cost + ($NPV (O&M cost - revenues))
                                                      tonnes CO2e x N years

              USEPA expresses the cost to oxidize VAM (in  tonnes  of  CO2e)  as a  net  present
              value  (NPV) adjusted to  year  0 for all projects analyzed.  This method places  all
              projects within  a consistent frame  of reference so that  they are  comparable. An
              alternative would have required a comparison  of a particular year's "real-time" cost
              (e.g., comparing  costs for year 1 for a number of projects),  but this would have the
              disadvantage of  not being able  to  account for varying  project lives,  inflation of
              various cost and  revenue items, and different dates of commencement. NPV carbon
              emission reduction costs tend  to be less than  real-time costs, primarily because of
              the 15 percent discount rate used in this analysis.

              The following describes how MAC curve calculations were developed from  these
              cost estimates.
              11 Net present value (NPV) is the combination of capital and operating costs and revenues of a project
              incurred during the project  term discounted  to the present (year 0 for each project) using an
              appropriate discount rate. The formula for calculating NPV is:
                   Present Value = CF0 + CFi_  +  CF2_ + CF3_ + CFn_
                                    (1 + r)1 (1 + r)2 (1 + r)3 (1 + r)n
              where: CFX = cash flow in period x, n = the number of periods, r = the discount rate.

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
3.2.1      Methodology

Individual Country MAC Curves
In developing country-specific MAC curves, USEPA used the distribution curve of
VAM concentration  and flow reported  by MSHA for the 58  gassiest ventilation
shafts at underground coal mines in the  US and adjusted it for application to other
countries. Specifically,  USEPA employed the following five steps to build the MAC
curves, first for the US and next for non-US coal-producing countries.

US MAC Curve—Carbon Mitigation Cost

1. A model was constructed using cost  and performance data supplied by the two
   vendors of flow-reversal technology.  The model yielded a net cost, expressed as
   the NPV of abating  VAM emissions, equivalent to one tonne of CO2. Sensitivity
   analysis revealed that methane concentration would have the greatest effect on
   the net oxidation cost of VAM.

2. Net VAM project costs were estimated for VAM concentrations from 0.2 to over
   1.0 percent, taking  into account the following assumptions:

   •  Discount rate. While discount  rates may vary considerably from country to
       country, the  model used in  this analysis applied a 15 percent  rate to be
       conservative  and assumed that most projects will be privately sponsored.
       This rate represents a reasonable average for a private project with blended
       (i.e., leveraged) debt and pre-tax equity  investment. (See further discussion
       on the discount rate in the "Uncertainties" section below.)

   •  Project size.  The model assumed  project airflow capacities of 100 cubic
       meters per second—large enough to achieve good economy of scale and to
       fit most modern mining enterprises. In  some developing countries  where
       smaller ventilation  airflows are common, USEPA  assumed  that lower
       prevailing labor costs will tend  to cancel out the higher unit costs of smaller
       plants.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                  •  Project life. VAM projects will take place both at bleeder  shafts,12 which
                     tend to have higher VAM concentrations, and at main shafts, which tend to
                     have  longer economic  lives. The analysis assumed an economic life of 16
                     years  (with project startup  occurring in 2002),  during  which  the VAM
                     project modules will have been moved once  for a  main shaft  and three
                     times  (every four years) for  a  bleeder shaft. Moreover, it further assumed
                     that the salvage value of some plant components will likely offset part of the
                     post-project decommissioning costs.

                  •  Use  of gob gas.  System vendors may  depend  somewhat on  gob  gas
                     availability, for example to enhance VAM concentration or to raise  the
                     temperature of the compressed hot air to reach the design  temperatures of a
                     gas turbine. If no gob gas or other supplemental fuels are available, power
                     production will fall off, in some cases substantially, and  many mines may
                     not have sufficient gob gas to  optimize the performance of  every potential
                     project. The analysis  included a  charge of $1.00 per MBtu ($0.95  per
                     million kilojoules) for the gob gas, but  the impact on net  project  cost  is
                     small (i.e., cents per tonne CO2e),  because gob gas use increases the value
                     of revenues from additional power  generated. (See the discussion of gob  gas
                     availability in the "Uncertainties" section below.)

                  •  Royalty. The  model  did not  include any royalty payment to the  mine,
                     because it assumed that the mine receives remuneration for  its VAM out of
                     project profits.

                  •  Project debt. No formal  accounting for debt  was necessary, because  the
                     discount rate accounted for a blend of debt and equity financing.

                  •  Income tax. The model assumed a "before tax" return; therefore, it did  not
                     address income taxes or depreciation.

                  •  Electricity sale  price. The model assumed a power price of $0.03 per kWh.
                     Revenues may accrue to a project by calculating the retail value of power
                     savings resulting from the mine purchasing less from its traditional supplier
                     (adjusted  by payments  for backup, if any), or by  selling  the power to  the
              12 Some mines use bleeder shafts to increase ventilation at individual or groups of longwall panels.
              Bleeder shafts are smaller in diameter than main mine ventilation shafts (e.g., 4 to 8 feet versus 8 to 28
              feet, respectively).  Generally, the  concentration of methane found  in bleeder shafts  is somewhat
              higher (e.g., <2 percent) than that found in main mine ventilation airflows (e.g., <1 percent). Available
              information indicates that currently only the US and Russia make use of bleeder shafts.

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
       grid. The $0.03  price represents  the  mid  point of anecdotal  reports of
       current pricing in the deep  coal-mining  regions of the US Rockies and
       Appalachia.

    •   Value of waste heat. Some of the system configurations being studied by the
       vendors will  produce marketable  thermal energy, but the model did not
       assume  any   such  revenues,  since  thermal  markets  could   be small,
       intermittent, or non-existent. Potential uses for thermal  energy will depend
       on  site-specific factors that vary  worldwide. However, such  uses could
       include coal drying and district heating systems in mining communities. To
       the extent that projects can  take advantage of thermal revenues, the analysis
       was conservative.

3.  A distribution table for VAM emissions was constructed using the VAM  flow
    rates for the  US shafts,  ranked according to concentration, and grouped by
    discrete methane  concentration   percentages  according  to  the  following
    procedure.

    •   Range  of VAM concentrations. The analysis ranked the 58 US ventilation
       shafts monitored  by MSHA in the  order of their VAM concentrations, and
       grouped the shafts into  discrete bands of concentration. For example, all
       projects  working with VAM  concentrations ranging from  0.15  to  0.25
       percent are labeled 0.2  percent, and so on.  At concentrations below  0.15
       percent,  the  oxidation  units  will  not be able to  sustain  the minimum
       temperature  necessary  for  oxidation   (i.e.,  methane  auto-oxidation
       temperature). Thus, this  analysis assumes that 0.2 percent  is  the lowest
       practically viable category. The last point on the curve represents the few
       shafts  that have  concentrations from  0.95  to  over  1.2 percent. To be
       conservative, this analysis  assumed  that  flows in that  range will be 1.0
       percent.

4.  The results from Step  2 (VAM oxidation costs per tonne of CO2e) were added to
    the Step 3  distribution table (for the US a no-power case that does not include
    the cost of power generation equipment also was developed).

5.  The cumulative tonnage of VAM that would be  oxidized (if project developers
    were to take advantage of  available  opportunities) was plotted against  each
    discrete incremental change in  the cost of methane oxidation.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              US MAC Curve—Electricity Price

              Another way of evaluating the conditions necessary to economically oxidize VAM
              is  to construct a MAC curve that  is keyed  to  the sale price of electricity. The
              electricity price  MAC  estimates the number of tonnes of CO2e that  would  be
              mitigated annually using a range of  electric prices. Project revenues from the VAM
              power  projects would accrue from electricity sales  and do  not  include carbon
              mitigation revenues (i.e., a zero cost per tonne of CO2e).

              The  US electricity  price MAC was constructed  in a similar manner to Steps 1
              through  3  described  under  the   "US  MAC  Curve—Carbon  Mitigation  Cost"
              methodology, with the following exceptions:

                 •   All  financial and  cost assumptions  remained  the  same  except for  the
                     electric price, which became an independent variable.

                 •   Project revenues were assumed to accrue solely from electricity sales.

                 •   A table was created that recorded each  pair of VAM concentration and
                     electric price.

                 •   The distribution table of VAM flow rates for US  shafts ranked according to
                     concentration (Step 3) was added to the concentration-electric price table
                     assembled above.

                 •   The cumulative tonnage of VAM  that could be oxidized was plotted against
                     each discrete incremental change in the price of electricity.

              Applying the process outlined above resulted  in the MAC curves for the US, which
              are presented in Figures 8 and 9 (see Section 3.2.2).

              Non-US Country MAC Curves

              Data from a large sample of gassy ventilation shafts provided airflow volumes and
              VAM concentrations  that  made construction  of the  US  MAC curve  a  fairly
              straightforward procedure. USEPA received only generalized information from  11
              of the  other 12 coal  mine  countries assessed (i.e.,  shaft-specific data were  not
              available except for some 1995  data from  Poland), therefore USEPA used the US
              distribution curve and adjusted it for application to other  countries.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Methane Concentration Distribution

Using  the  US  distribution  curve  of  VAM  concentrations should  provide  a
reasonable approximation because US data (1) were derived  from a range of coal
basins,  (2) result from actual field readings,  and (3), with  data from  58 shafts,
should  represent a  sufficient variability  of  mines.  The following  adjustments,
however,  were made to  improve the accuracy of the application of the US MAC
curve.

    •   Concentration percentage ranges. For the UK, where data were unavailable
       to quantify  VAM  concentration  percentage  ranges, the  MAC  analysis
       assumed a  reasonable  range  of 0.1-0.7 percent,  which  is  typical  of
       countries that do not employ bleeder shafts.

    •   Concentration percentage of the median  VAM emission rate. This is the
       concentration at which half of each country's annual VAM flow (volume of
       methane released per unit time) has a  higher concentration and  half has a
       lower  concentration.  Where  the  median  concentration   value  was
       unavailable, the analysis used a value that best approximated this  point.

Power Prices

Correspondents in seven  countries (including India and  South  Africa  for which
MAC curves were not constructed) supplied power pricing  information that was
useful for generating MAC curves in their respective countries.

  •  Germany—Radgen  (2002)  reported that 0.0665 euros (US$0.065)13 per  kWh
     can  be  paid  for  electricity generated  at  installations with an  electrical
     capacity of over 500 kW using gas from coal  mines, and  this  analysis thus
     assumed that price for power produced in Germany.

  •  China—Wenge (2002) gathered data that sampled both  wholesale and retail
     power rates in China. These suggest that US$0.035 may  be available for VAM
     projects.

  •  Australia—Mallet  (2002) supplied  actual  Australian   pricing  data,  which
     indicated that a fair price for VAM power  would be approximately US$0.02.
 ; Currency conversion based on November 2002 rates.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                •   United Kingdom—O'Quigley (2002) supplied information indicating that the
                    wholesale electric rate has fallen to about US$0.03 in the UK.

                •   Ukraine—Filippov (2002) reported that US$0.03 would be a reasonable price
                    to apply for Ukrainian industrial power.

                •   India—Singh (2002) provided an estimate of what a mine may be willing to
                    pay to a VAM project, which at US$0.07 is the highest estimate encountered
                    in this study.

                •   South Africa—Lloyd (2002) described energy prices as very low and "likely to
                    remain so." His  data supported a price of only about US$0.01 per kWh.

              For countries where  power pricing information was not available  through direct
              contact with in-country  experts, USEPA  secured 2001 industrial electricity price
              data from IEA(2002).

              Non-US VAM MAC Methodology

              The method for creating a new VAM MAC for each  country used the data shown in
              Appendix A and proceeded as follows:14

              1. The  distribution  of   US  VAM  mitigated  was  ranked   and  the  median
                 concentration was identified (0.39 percent).

              2. The cumulative distribution of annual US VAM flow (by  concentration) was
                 converted to a percentage distribution.

              3. The mid-point of each country's concentrations was identified.

              4. A decimal fraction (factor) representing the difference between  each nominal
                 increment of the US percentage range and the top and median of the US range
                 was calculated. For example,  the US distribution  has a span of 0.61 percent
                 from the median  of 0.39 percent to the highest concentration grouping of 1.0
                 percent, while the reported range  from China's high  of  0.75  percent to  its
                 "average" of 0.45 percent spans only 0.3 percent.  It is necessary to use a  ratio
                 of these US and China spans  to distribute the  upper  half of China's oxidized
              14 A separate calculation was necessary for concentrations above and below the median because
              reported patterns of mid-points and ranges are not consistent with each other or with the US pattern—
              an illustrative example of this calculation flow is provided in Appendix B.

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
    methane  (in tonnes of CO2e) according to the US curve, as follows in  Steps 5
    and 6.

5.  The top of each country's concentration range and the difference between that
    percentage  and the median selected in Step 3 were identified.

6.  A new  concentration range (above the median only) was constructed using the
    factors  developed in Step 4 and the range identified in Step 5.

7.  To distribute the bottom half of the curve from the mid-point to the lower end
    of a country's range, Steps 4, 5, and 6 were repeated.

8.  The new concentration  range was matched with the NPV cost per tonne of
    CO2e by interpolating the US concentration/cost relationships.

9.  The new  concentration  range  for each  country was  matched  to the US
    distribution, as converted to percentages in Step 1.

10. That new concentration percentage distribution was multiplied by the tonnes of
    VAM (expressed as tonnes of CO2e) that are emitted by each country.

11. The two  series resulting from  Steps  8 and  10 become the bases for  each
    country's MAC curves.

The resulting MAC curves for 11 of the 13 countries  are in Appendix A. According
to  information  received from  India  and  South Africa,  VAM  concentrations are
generally too low for VAM-fueled  oxidation so this study did not produce  MAC
curves for those countries.

Global MAC Curve
USEPA estimates global emissions of VAM in  2002 to be 247 million  metric tons
(MMT) CO2e. USEPA constructed the global MAC curve using the same data as for
the county MAC curves,  adjusted upward by  a factor  of 17 percent, which
represents the difference between the 11 countries included  in the analysis and the
global  methane emissions from coal mining.15 The  data were combined, sorted,
distilled into  eleven  distinct  ranges of  NPV cost,  and   then  plotted  against
15 USEPA acknowledges that this adjustment may result in an overestimate or an underestimate of
actual total global VAM emissions, but data available at the time of this analysis were not adequate to
support a more precise estimate.

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              cumulative volume of CO2e. Figures 10 and 11 (see Section 3.2.2) show the global
              MAC curves.

              3.2.2     Analysis of the MAC Curves

              To interpret the information provided in a MAC curve, one can select a specified
              value of emission reduction value (e.g., Y-axis in Figure 8) or electric  power price
              (e.g., Y-axis in Figure 9) and then read the expected emissions reductions (on the X-
              axis) from  the appropriate curve.  To  provide perspective  on  the  relationship
              between  electric power sales  revenue and overall project cost and  profitability,
              note that Figure 8 includes a second cost line that represents the unitized cost of
              methane abatement in the absence of any electric power sales.

              Two MAC curves are provided for each country individually and all study countries
              grouped at the global level. One MAC curve depicts the amount of methane that
              can be oxidized at a given carbon value ($ per tonne  of CO2e) assuming a fixed
              electricity sales  price. A  second  curve  is provided  to  illustrate the methane
              oxidation potential at various electricity prices  where power generation is the only
              revenue source.

              US MAC Curves

              The US MAC  curves (see Figures 8  and 9) offer a  valuable frame of reference for
              estimating the effect of changes in net project costs. In  the US a relatively low net
              project cost (marginal  cost) could make  profitable VAM  oxidation projects that
              would  remove much of  the  mine ventilation  methane currently released  to  the
              atmosphere. For example, Figure 8 reveals that a marginal  cost of $2.00 per tonne
              of carbon dioxide equivalent  (net present value) could subsidize a reduction of
              almost 7 MMT annually.

              The upper curve in  Figure 8 represents projects that have no opportunity to
              produce  electricity  and  are  installed without generating equipment (i.e., with
              oxidizers only). The lower  curve represents projects that benefit from  both  power
              production and emissions reduction, and include power generation costs. In most
              cases, carbon  dioxide mitigation costs are higher for projects without power gen-
              eration potential due to the absence of power revenues. As the capital  cost burden
              of power  generation equipment increases, however, carbon mitigation costs for
              power production projects can exceed those of oxidation-only projects. In Figure 8
              this is  illustrated where the two curves converge  (and even cross) because of a
              decreasing effect from electric  power sales coupled with the capital cost burden of
              power  generation equipment for the lower curve.  This is  because the quantity of

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                                    $3.50
                                    $3.00
                                    $2.50
                                    $2.00
                                  £ $1.50
                                    $1.00
                                    $0.50
                                    $0.00
                                        -$/tC02at
                                         $0.03/kWh
                                        - $/t CO2 with no
                                         power
                                                    10     15      20     25
                                                     Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                                                               30
                                                                                     35
VAM (going from  left to  right
and  expressed  as  CO2e  oxi-
dized) increases as a function
of CO2e  oxidation  costs. The
upper  end of the curve repre-
sents  projects  oxidizing  the
lower   VAM   concentrations.
Therefore,  in   the  oxidation-
with-power-production   case,
net electric power revenues for
these  projects   decrease   be-
cause more and more oxidizer
energy must be  used to operate
the  fans   (i.e.,  parasitic  loss)
relative to  the  volume of in-
flowing  methane.  With  less
electric power  revenue,  more     Figure 8. MAC Analysis for the United States—Carbon Mitigation
subsidy is needed per tonne of CO2e oxidized, so the curve tends to become steep
at the upper end.
It is also possible to estimate how a change in emission reduction value will create
opportunities for additional projects. For example, if the price to mitigate a tonne of
carbon  dioxide equivalent were to  rise  from $2.00  to  $3.00 it  would  create an
incremental  US market for economically  sustainable projects that would reduce
annual  emissions by  more than
25   MMT  of  carbon   dioxide
equivalent.   Such   increases  in
emission reduction value can  im-
prove the economics of already
profitable projects or could trans-
form  economically  unattractive
projects into ones that are worth
pursuing.
Figure 9  illustrates  the relation-
ship between the electric power
price received by a  VAM project
and the level of carbon emission
reductions   it  could   achieve.
CO2e oxidized increases only as
a   function  of  higher  electric
o
o
    0.15
    0.12
                                    Q.
                                    tf
    0.03
    0.00 -I
                    10      15      20     25
                     Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
Figure 9. MAC Analysis for the United States—Power Production
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                             COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
     $4.00
  o
  o
     $3.50 -
     $3.00
     $2.50
     $2.00
     $1.50
     $1.00
     $0.50
     $0.00
                          100       150
                     Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
    0.14


  8 0.12
   : 0.10
  I 0.08
  »
  u
  •5 0.04
    0.02
    0.00
                                                        prices. At the upper  end ever
                                                        higher  prices  are  needed  to
                                                        overcome the rising effects of
                                                        parasitic losses.

                                                        With  a  low electric price, only
                                                        projects  with  high  VAM con-
                                                        centration  would  be   imple-
                                                        mented in the US. Conversely,
                                                        a  very  high  electricity  price
                                                        would be sufficient to support
                                                        projects   that   might  oxidize
                                                        most  of  the available VAM in
                                                        the US at concentrations as low
                                                        as 0.2 percent. In the US, pro-
Figure 10. Global MAC Analysis—Carbon Mitigation          ;ects  WOuld  need  to  secure
       power revenues at a minimum  of about $0.05 per  kWh to begin  making VAM
       oxidation viable.

       Global MAC Curves

       The global MAC  curves (see Figures 10 and  11) cover project opportunities in all
       countries with underground mining. They can be read in the same way as the US
       curves.  For example, Figure 10  illustrates that with  a marginal carbon abatement
                                                        cost of about $2.00 one might
                                                        expect  affordable  VAM pro-
                                                        jects  to  oxidize over  60 MMT
                                                        of  CO2e  annually. At $3.00,
                                                        almost   160  MMT  of  CO2e
                                                        could be oxidized  per  year,
                                                        which represents  nearly a 100-
                                                        MMT increment  due  to  the
                                                        one-dollar  marginal cost rise.
                                                        Figure 11  reveals  that globally,
                                                        if project revenues derive only
                                                        from  electricity sales, substan-
                                                        tial  levels  of VAM  emission
                                                        mitigation begin to be feasible
                                                        if electric power prices  exceed
                                                        $0.06 per kWh.
                 50
                          100        150
                     Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                              200
                                                        250
         Figure 11. Global MAC Analysis—Power Production
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
3.2.3     Opportunity Cost of VAM Recovery and  Use

Fluctuations  in  the price of electricity  will  affect the overall profitability of a
project,  and  thus the  minimum  acceptable  price  of carbon recovery.  Such
fluctuations  may  be  caused  by  market  forces,  negotiated  contracts,  or the
restructuring  or  privatization   process   that  many  transitional  countries  are
undergoing. Regardless of cause, electricity prices will  vary over time. Thus it is
useful to display  the MAC  analysis  results  in  terms  of  opportunity  costs  that
illustrate the relationship between  varying  electricity prices and carbon costs  at
different levels  of VAM  recovery.  Figure  12 provides  such  an  opportunity  cost
graph for the global  market.  Opportunity cost graphs also are provided for each
study country in Appendix A.
In countries where 50  percent
of the country's  CMM is avail-
able at a concentration  of 0.39
percent  or  more, the costs  per
ton of CO2 equivalent dip into
the  negative  values  at  higher
electricity   prices.   But   the
project-specific   VAM  concen-
tration must be  higher than  0.8
percent  and the price of elec-
tricity greater than US$0.06.  For
countries   below   the   0.39-
percent   CMM   concentration
threshold,  carbon  prices in  all
cases will be positive.
$4.00
$3.50 -
$3.00 -
$2.50 -
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
                             Global VAM CO e
                             Capture Percentiles
$0.00 4
   $0.01
$0.02
$0.03    $0.04    $0.05   $0.06
Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
$0.07
        Figure 12. Global Opportunity Cost Curve
The opportunity curves display a cumulative relationship for the amount of VAM
capturable at a given electricity price level and the corresponding carbon emission
mitigation  cost. This is shown ranked by percent of global VAM captured, thus the
tenth percentile represents  the highest quality of VAM capturable. On the graphs
displaying  the opportunity cost relationships for each  country shown  in Appendix
A, the median value is indicated as a highlighted line.

The trend  in these opportunity charts indicates that,  should the value of carbon
emission reductions be sufficient, electricity generation would not be  needed. The
NPV price  of CO2e mitigated in this analysis ranges from US$2 to US$4.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              3.2.4     VAM Carbon Mitigation Cost in the Absence of Power
                         Generation
  $4.00

  $3.50 -
O $3.00 -

I $2.50 -
IT $2.00 -
o
,*! $1.50 -
   «  $1.00 -
   O
     $0.50 -
     $0.00
        0.00
              As the opportunity curves show (see Figure 12), VAM mitigation projects are viable
              at low electricity prices, with the corresponding carbon emission mitigation costs
              within a currently  reasonable market range. Figure 13  provides  perspective on
                                                             carbon emission mitigation costs
                                                             for the US that would result from
                                                             VAM oxidation projects that do
                                                             not include electric  power gen-
                                                             eration  (i.e.,  projects where no
                                                             turbine  is purchased  and  no
                                                             power is sold).
                                                           Figure  13  shows  the  carbon
                                                           emission  mitigation  costs  that
                                                           would  be associated  with pro-
                                                           jects  oxidizing  various  VAM
                                                           concentrations. As would be ex-
                                                           pected,   lower   VAM   concen-
                                                           trations   equate  with  higher
                                                           carbon emission mitigation  unit
                                                           costs.
               0.20
                       0.40     0.60     0.80
                       VAM Concentration Level (%)
                                              1.00
                                                     1.20
  Figure 13. US Carbon Mitigation Cost in the Absence of Power
                        Generation
              3.2.5      Uncertainties

              A number of uncertainties underlie the assumptions used in this analysis. Some of
              these uncertainties will tend to increase the estimated cost of VAM oxidation, while
              others will  result in lower cost estimates.  The discussions presented below describe
              the significance of each uncertainty and, where possible,  explain how the study has
              attempted to mitigate the impact of each on the MAC curves.

              Cosf Implications
              This analysis  reflects a host of factors that affect VAM project costs, as  is discussed
              below.

                  •  Conservatism   in  the  analysis.   This analysis  employed  conservative
                     assumptions as  necessary in the  absence of requisite data  elements or in
                     interpreting and adopting existing data to  meet analytical needs, and that
                     conservatism tended to increase  estimated  costs. Therefore,  it is expected
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
       that as the uncertainties that required such assumptions are resolved, VAM
       oxidation  cost  estimates will  decrease as compared with those reflected
       herein.

    •   Technology maturation.  As VAM oxidation technologies mature  and are
       employed in coal producing countries, economies of scale may drive down
       manufacturing   costs   somewhat.   Similarly,   new  technologies  for
       productively using VAM  may evolve over time that are less costly (in terms
       of either capital or operating cost) than those reviewed in this analysis.

    •   Plant downtime. The costing model used to develop the MAC curves allows
       for a 10-percent  downtime  to  cover scheduled  and  unscheduled plant
       outages. Thus, any downtime in excess of 10 percent will raise project costs
       above those considered  in the model, while downtime below 10 percent
       will reduce project costs.  Cost-constrained project  economics will  likely
       prohibit a  facility from adding a unit to cover  downtime and raise plant
       availability to near 100 percent.

    •   Shaft transitions. Plant  designers will select ventilation shafts that appear to
       have a reasonably long economic life (four years or more) so that the plant
       does not have to relocate too  frequently. Before each move,  however,  it  is
       possible that  some  shafts  will  not maintain  expected  VAM flows, or
       conversely, after each move  some  may not  reach  expected  flows.  Both
       circumstances would increase  costs and reduce revenues.

    •   Moving  interval and  time.  The MAC analysis  estimated  that periods
       between moves would be four years for bleeder shafts and eight years for
       main  shafts.  If each  relocation,  including dismantling, transporting,  and
       reassembling, were to use up two months, lost time would amount to about
       4  percent  and  2 percent for  the bleeder and  main shafts, respectively.16
       Shorter  move  intervals will  decrease revenues and  increase costs; shorter
       move times will  increase  revenues and decrease costs.

    •   Siting difficulties.  Some  ventilation  shaft evases are located in areas  that
       may be unsuitable or unavailable for transporting and installing the heavy,
       large components of a VAM project. Such constraints could involve difficult
16 These estimates are approximations based on dialogue with Brian King, Senior Consultant, Neill &
Gunter (Nova Scotia-Canada) Ltd., Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada.

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                     access roads and steep inclines, and either could add to capital and moving
                     costs.

                  •   Development delay. In the real world of project development, considerable
                     delay occurs between  the time a project becomes an  economically viable
                     candidate and the day it commences commercial operation. When delay
                     becomes extreme, it can add to project capital costs.

                  •   Institutional issues.  For a variety of reasons  (e.g.,  financial  instability,
                     inability to strike an agreement with a developer) not every potential mine
                     host will  welcome a project. Some of these issues may work out over time,
                     but the solutions might subject the project to higher fees, interest costs,  or
                     operating costs.

                  •   Lack of capital. In some areas of the world, project opportunities have
                     difficulty finding affordable investment capital,  so the cost of capital could
                     rise for those projects that do receive funding.

                  •   Political  and  domestic  issues.   History  suggests  that  some  countries
                     encounter  unsettled periods  when   it is  difficult to  implement sound,
                     profitable ventures  that take advantage of otherwise attractive project
                     development opportunities.  To  bring  about  projects  in  spite  of such
                     eventualities, the developer may incur additional costs.

                  •   Currency fluctuations.  Changes  in the currency exchange  rate over time
                     may constitute a significant cost issue in international projects.

              VAM Data
              The first source of uncertainty has  to do  with the  VAM characterization data
              available for each  country  under evaluation. Data  gathered  by MSHA were the
              basis for US VAM characterization.

              For VAM  information from other countries, the analysis relied on data  from  in-
              country coal  mining  industry  experts.   Current,  detailed projections  of  VAM
              production  rates and  methane concentrations were sometimes available. Where
              data gaps  existed,  USEPA used conservative assumptions to project or  interpolate
              values. Appendix A contains country-specific details.

              The extent to which the extrapolation from  study country VAM emission totals  to
              world  VAM emission  totals,  based  on   the  ratio  of 2000  overall coal mining
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
methane emissions for  the study countries versus  the global total,  results  in an
accurate world estimate is unknown.

Probability of Declining and Fluctuating
Ventilation Airflow or VAM Concentration
A  review  of several years' VAM data from gassy  US mines  revealed significant
fluctuations in shaft-specific  ventilation  airflow  and VAM concentration.  If the
airflow decreases while the concentration holds steady, a developer might be able
to stage a gradual plant relocation to a new shaft, using most modules during the
transition.

To account for expected transitions, the analysis allocated a reasonable amount to
a reserve fund in the economic model to  cover plant moving costs every four years
for bleeder shafts and eight years for  main shafts. Note that, while the continuity of
concentration  and flow over time varies at the shaft  level, the overall national-level
concentrations and flows are relatively constant.

A number of factors affecting the market will change over time, including:

   •   Amount of coal mined

   •   Ratio of VAM released per unit of  coal mined

   •   Quantity of methane drained from the vicinity of active mining

   •   Portion of overall liberated VAM exiting a given shaft, especially in the later
       years of a shaft's economic life

   •   Ventilation airflows

   •   VAM concentrations

Variations  in  methane flows  and  concentrations  are  a  function  of  and  are
determined by mining conditions underground,  and these  parameters will not be
changed to accommodate VAM oxidation project  needs at the surface.  Only by
carefully observing recent history and  understanding current  mine plans can  a
project manager create a strategy that is as immune to such variability as  possible.
At some mines drained but unused  methane (e.g., gob gas) may  be available to
serve as a supplemental fuel to reduce variations in VAM concentration (estimates
of the total amount of CMM  available in each study country are provided in the
country analyses in Appendix A). In the absence of supplemental fuel, without very

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              high subsidies a project  cannot afford to install modules that would sit idle  for
              significant periods, so the plant size typically will match below-average anticipated
              flows. For the most variable shafts this would leave  substantial intermittent VAM
              flows unabated. After  viewing  the  standard deviation  averages for  US  shafts
              grouped  according  to  airflow  and  VAM  flow,  USEPA  assumes   that  this
              phenomenon would  amount to 20-25  percent of the VAM for each project. The
              shafts with higher air and VAM flow rates exhibit less variability, quarter to quarter,
              than do shafts with the smaller flows.

              Concerns  remain  about the  potential for dips or  gradual  declines in  VAM
              concentration, even while the host shaft is still functioning at full flow. The Appin
              Colliery project  in Australia presents a real example of  this  phenomenon. VAM
              concentration there declined  for several  years after the project first started, due,
              according to one account (Bray, 1999), to the degasification effects of a drainage
              program. A developer might be able to define the risk of reduced VAM  by gaining
              an understanding of the long-term mine plan and then budgeting accordingly.

              Assumed Heat Rate
              Heat rate  is the  ratio of energy  (in this case VAM) flowing into a system to that
              flowing  out (in this case electricity). The MAC curves presented  herein reflect a
              typical  heat rate developed from information provided by oxidizer manufacturers
              and an assumed  VAM concentration. However, in practice VAM concentrations at
              a given project site may be significantly higher or lower  than the assumed value,
              and such variation would have marked effect on the actual heat rate achieved. If
              other factors  are constant,  projects oxidizing lower VAM concentrations would
              encounter higher  parasitic  losses  due  to  the  need to  move  large volumes of
              ventilation air through the system to assure an adequate VAM flow to the oxidizer.
              This would degrade  (increase) the heat rate. Alternatively, projects encountering
              higher VAM concentrations could  be expected to achieve improved (decreased)
              heat rates.

              New Technological Application
              While oxidizers  have been commercially deployed  for many different industrial
              applications, neither Neill and Gunter (Nova Scotia) Ltd.'s  catalytic VAMOX system
              nor MEGTEC's thermal VOCSIDIZER has operated at full commercial scale at an
              underground  coal mine,  and  small   pilot  demonstrations  have  not yet been
              equipped to produce electric  power. Therefore, certain aspects  of their operation
              remain to be demonstrated. For example, the vendors' ability to  build and operate
              an efficient and  reliable heat exchanger in very hot reactor environments appears
              to be feasible but not absolutely certain. As a result of such technical uncertainties

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and the lack of actual pilot plants, USEPA asked the two system vendors to provide
realistic  yet  conservative  estimates  of  system  performance  and  economic
projections at various levels of VAM concentration. While overall system (oxidizer,
heat exchanger, and power production) costs are still somewhat uncertain, a large
amount of work has gone into engineering studies and cost estimates.

Availability of Gob Gas
As mentioned above, many project sites could have insufficient gob gas to optimize
the performance of every potential project.  For such cases, several options now or
soon may exist to compensate for gob gas shortfalls. These include:

    •   Installing a concentrator in the ventilation airflow to create an auxiliary fuel
       source

    •   Redesigning the prime mover in one of several ways to reduce the need for
       auxiliary fuel

    •   Operating the power generator at a lower output

    •   Purchasing natural gas or another suitable fuel

The inclusion of gob gas at $1.00 per MBtu in the model is probably a reasonable
estimate for cases where gob gas  is available and for the first  two options listed
above. The  last two options listed above will have the net effect of significantly
raising the cost of projects using VAM to generate electricity.

Selection of a Realistic Power Price
A VAM project with  electricity-generation  capability  will need a substantial and
predictable revenue stream from power sales to be credible with potential sources
of financial support. A project can either export its power to the grid or sell it to the
host mine who would then reduce power purchases from the local utility and pass
the savings along to the  project entity. However, small producers that sell to the
grid  may not obtain full value for their  power  because, in the US for example,
markets usually prefer blocks of power  amounting to over 50  MW while most VAM
projects could only produce about 10-15 MW. Also, while selling to the host mine
could displace the higher retail price normally paid by the mine, the developer will
have to assure the mine owner that back-up power purchased during periods when
the project is off-line will  not use up any savings offered by the project.
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                     Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                The findings  from this  preliminary  research effort for both  exported  and self-
                generated power could not be supported by a statistically valid database. However,
                USEPA selected a conservative average price of $0.03 per kWh for US projects,
                and that is consistent with prices mentioned in informal discussions held during the
                preparation of this report.

                It should be noted that  in most countries  it may not be possible  to  count on a
                steady power price for the entire project duration because prices  react to ever-
                changing demand and supply conditions. Since the project's financial backers will
                require assurance that the expected  revenue stream from  power sales is secured
                contractually (at least through the term of the project loan), project developers will
                need to execute long-term power sales agreements.

                For further discussion on the basis for the power price, see Appendix C.

                Uncertainties Relating to Financial Assumptions in the Model
                To select financial assumptions to  complete this analysis, USEPA faced  several
                issues. The first was the  question of what discount rate to use. One reasonable
                approach would  be to assume a leveraged financing where a  15 percent discount
                rate might represent a blend of 75-percent debt at 9  percent plus a 25-percent
                equity share earning  a pre-tax internal  rate of return (IRR) of 33 percent. The 15-
                percent  rate may be conservative for projects that can leverage higher than  75
                percent, obtain a lower interest rate on debt capital, or accept a  slightly  lower IRR.

                Second, using depreciation and income tax calculations in  the economic analysis
                proved difficult because  of the great variety of financing structures and tax profiles
                of developers most likely to implement a VAM project. Therefore, USEPA modeled
                all scenarios on a pre-tax basis. While this decision offers a transparent and  simple
                analysis,  it produces somewhat conservative  estimates when compared  to the
                anticipated  cost savings  that will accrue to developers  who use creative financial
                structures to gain tax-loss credits in the project's early years.

                A third  issue involves the  project term, for which the analysis used a 16-year
                economic life. These power projects will probably realize a small salvage value for
                reusable equipment at the end of the  project's economic life, but that value may be
                offset  with  decommissioning  costs, so  no  salvage  value was  assumed. This
                assumption  appears to be a realistic match to the plant's true economic  life.  In
                summary, the analysis used conservative  values for all of the three key economic
                modeling assumptions, so it offers an overall conservative outcome.
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
3.2.6     Estimating the Effects of Uncertainties
           on the MAC Curves

The  study's uncertainties  affect the accuracy of the economic models  and the
resulting accuracy of the MAC curves. The following points offer some perspective
on the impact of these on the actual  implementation of VAM projects.

   •   Questions of cost. If the cost models have underestimated or overestimated
       the cost of oxidizing a tonne of CO2e (or the energy revenues), the effect
       will be to delay or accelerate the implementation  of projects that match
       each discrete level of CO2e  value. However, such cost/revenue forecasting
       problems should not affect  the overall MAC  concept or the shape of the
       curves.

   •   Questions of average field data. The MAC analysis is susceptible to possible
       over-  and underestimates of VAM  flow data,  on  a  shaft-by-shaft basis,
       because most US (MSHA) readings reflect only one day per quarter, and no
       overseas  data were available  for  individual shafts. Taken as a whole,
       however, the flow data  probably represent a fair picture of the market.

   •   Questions of available supplemental fuel. Some concern may exist about
       the availability of gob gas or other supplemental fuel, which is needed for
       optimal   performance  of some technologies.  As  discussed  previously,
       technologies exist that  may prove able to cost-effectively concentrate VAM
       to use as a fuel supplement or to allow the plants to achieve acceptable
       efficiencies with less supplemental fuel.

   •   Questions of flow and  concentration  variability. An  analysis of airflow and
       concentration for 58 US ventilation shafts showed a slight bias for increased
       variability as airflows became smaller. The data  were significantly  affected,
       however,  by the  variation  of shafts that  were either just starting up or
       nearing their end. Project managers should be able to cope with most of the
       effects of variability  by being fully aware of mine plans.

The  MAC curves described above  should offer encouragement to the firms  and
individuals who hope to abate  the largest source of CMM emissions, ventilation air
methane. With a comprehensive set of actual emission data from the majority of
US VAM, the analysis  used reliable cost and performance information based on
many years of engineering by two vendors of VAM oxidation technology.
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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              3.2.7     Worldwide Market Potential

              If all VAM on the MAC curve costing less than $3 per tonne of CO2 were mitigated
              with the installation of power projects,  a substantial  number of projects would
              come into being and offer a sizeable market for hardware and important economic
              activity. Table 3  presents forecasts of the net electric power capacity sales and
              revenues that would be created by all feasible VAM projects in each country (based
              on estimated emissions in 2002).

                Table 3. Potential Worldwide Market for VAM Projects (at under $3.00/tonne CO2e)
                   Country*
Total 2002     2002 VAM
  VAM    Emissions <$3.00  Net Electric   Equipment     Annual
Emissions    Tonne CChe     Capacity      Sales       Revenue
  ")m3)         (Bm3)         (MW)     (US$000,000)  (US$000,000)
China
United States
Ukraine
Russia
Australia
Poland
Kazakhstan
United Kingdom
Mexico
Germany
Czech Republic
Study Totals"
Other Countries
World Totals
* In order of 2002 VAM
6.7
2.6
2.2
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.08
0.06
14.8
2.5
17.3
emissions
5.47
1.81
1.13
0.61
0.37
0.26
0.04
0.13
0.10
0.07
0.04
10.04
1.7
11.7

1,365
457
264
141
96
52
11
31
27
16
5
2,464
409
2,873

3,802
1,213
912
498
243
258
29
96
62
63
54
7,229
1,199
8,428

431
124
71
56
17
22
2
8
11
9
2
754
125
880

** Numbers may not equal totals due to rounding.
              As the table reveals, China  alone theoretically could  create  1,365 MW of net
              useable capacity,  almost half  of  the  world total  of 2,979 MW.  Assuming the
              equipment value for each project (sized at a nominal 100 m3-per-second airflow)
              equals approximately  $10 million,  the  possible  world total  equipment  market
              estimate would be $8.7 billion. Finally, the annual revenue column estimates net
              power revenues (i.e., power produced minus  parasitic power consumed  by the
              plant)  from  each  country.  These  revenues,  which   are functions  of VAM
              concentrations and power prices, total $908 million annually.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
4.    SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This report estimates the market potential for  oxidizing ventilation air methane
worldwide  using  newly  available  technology  that  can  operate   on  VAM
concentrations down to a practical limit of 0.2 percent to produce useable energy.
To quantify the current and future US market USEPA used current, detailed VAM
data at the  ventilation  shaft level. Non-US  data were,  to  varying degrees,
incomplete  and  generalized.  To  complete   country-by-country and  global
characterizations, the analysis used overseas data with the US distribution curve of
VAM flow versus concentration. The analysis  then combined these results  with
project cost estimates supplied by system vendors to construct marginal abatement
cost curves.

The  MAC  curves  for  the  11  countries that appear to  have  viable project
opportunities  (presented in Appendix A) indicate a significant potential for the
development  of VAM projects worldwide. They demonstrate  that the cost of VAM
oxidation is low. The curves  indicate that at an NPV cost of $3.00 per tonne of
carbon dioxide equivalent projects could abate almost 160 million tonnes of CO2
annually.

Of  course  these  marginal  abatement  cost estimates  will  improve  as  actual
installations provide increasingly reliable VAM emissions and  project cost data. But
the uncertainties that affect each step of this analysis should not detract from the
report's  basic message:  that large-scale VAM use offers  a low-cost opportunity to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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5.    REFERENCES
Bray (1999): E-mail communication with Geoff Bray, President, Bray Solutions Pty
    Limited, Oyster Bay, New South Wales, Australia, November 1, 1999.

Filippov  (2002):  E-mail  communication  with  Alexander  Filippov,  Programs
    Coordinator, Partnership for Energy and Environmental Reform, Kiev, Ukraine,
    January 16, 2002.

Filippov  (2002):  E-mail  communication  with  Alexander  Filippov,  Programs
    Coordinator, Partnership for Energy and Environmental Reform, Kiev, Ukraine,
    June 25, 2002.

IEA (2002):  Fourth quarter 2001  (or later)  data  obtained from  the  International
    Energy  Agency  web  site  (http://www.iea.org/statist/keyworld2002/key2002/
    keystats.htm).

IPCC (2001): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Intergovernmental Panel
    on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York, United States.

Lloyd (2002): E-mail  communication with P.J.D. Lloyd,  Energy Research Institute,
    University of Cape  Town, Cape Town, South Africa, September 12, 2002.

Mallet  (2002):  E-mail  communication with  Dr. Cliff Mallett,  Commonwealth
    Scientific  and   Industrial  Research  Organization,  Kenmore,  Queensland,
    Australia, October  15, 2002.

O'Quigley (2002):  E-mail communication with Philip O'Quigley, Energy Finance
    Limited, Dublin,  Ireland, November 21, 2002.

Radgen  (2002): E-mail  communication with  Dr.  Peter Radgen, Project Manager,
    Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany, October 15, 2002.

Singh (2002):  E-mail communication  with  Umesh  Prasad  Singh, Deputy Chief
    Engineer, Coal India, Ltd., Calcutta, India, September 27, 2002.

USEPA  (2000):  Technical and  Economic  Assessment: Mitigation  of Methane
    Emissions  from  Coal Mine  Ventilation  Air, US   Environmental  Protection
    Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-430-R-001, February 2000.
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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              USEPA (2001): Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Developed Countries:
                 1990-2010, US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation,
                 EPA-430-R-01-007, December 2001.

              USEPA (2002a): Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000,
                 US  Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Atmospheric Programs,  EPA-
                 430-R-02-003, April  15, 2002.

              USEPA  (2002b):  US  Inventory  Changes—Revision  2,  working   draft,  US
                 Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Atmospheric Programs, January 3,
                 2002

              USEPA (2002c): Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Developing Countries:
                 1990-2020, US Environmental Protection Agency, Draft, February 2002.

              Wenge (2002): E-mail communication with Liu Wenge, Project Manager, China
                 Coalbed Methane Clearinghouse, Beijing, China, August 20, 2002.
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                      APPENDIX A
            COUNTRY-SPECIFIC ANALYSES
                     (2000-2020)
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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
This appendix details the process employed in estimating country-specific current
and future ventilation air methane emissions. It specifies data sources, explains
assumptions,  and  discusses  country-level  uncertainties.  Table  A  provides an
overview of the input data used and the  VAM estimation results obtained for all
countries evaluated.

Each   country  discussion  provides  background  information  on  a  country's
underground coal  mining  industry and potential VAM  release.  An  explanation
follows of the data sources  used and specific methodology employed in estimating
current and future VAM emissions.
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                        Table A. Summary of VAM Liberation Projections, 2000-2020
          VAM
         Release
         (m3 per    VAM Cone.
Country  tonne)        (%)
Airflow
 m3/s
2000   2005   2010   2015   2020   Change
China
(Bottom-up analysis)
6.80 Range: 0.0-0.75
Typical: 0.3-0.6
Average: 0.46
United States
(Bottom-up analysis)
7.45 Range: 0.1-1. 6
Median: 0.388
Ukraine
(Bottom-up analysis)
26.6 Range: 0.1-0.6
Typical: 0.2-0.4
Average: 0.3
Australia
(Bottom-up analysis)
10.50 Range: 0.1-0.7
Average: 0.4
Russia
(Bottom-up analysis)
10.18 Range: 0.0-0.75
Average: 0.38
South Africa
(Bottom-up analysis)
2.83 Range: 0.05-0.2
Mean: 0.1
Poland
(Bottom-up analysis)
Range:
0.1-0.4(1993);
3.91 0.1-0.7 (2000)
Wt. ave. 8 gassy
mines: 0.259


Range: 16.7-333.3
Average: 161



Range: 17-1,833
Median: 214.4


Range: 51-215
Average: 133



Range: 150-300
Average: 225


Range: 1.4-295
Average: 43


N/A




Wt. ave. 8 gassy mines:
221
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e

106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e

106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e

949.1 1045.0 1140.0 1235.0 1330.0
6.5 7.1 7.8 8.4 9.0
92.3 101.6 110.9 120.1 129.3


338.2 373.3 381.4 385.8 374.5
2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8
36.0 39.8 40.6 41.1 39.9

79.2 98.5 108.7 111.1 113.5
2.1 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0
30.1 37.5 41.3 42.3 43.2


63.6 69.8 77.0 82.1 90.4
0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
9.5 10.5 11.6 12.3 13.6

63.5 74.0 76.8 79.6 82.3
0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
9.2 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.0

142.1 173.7 173.7 173.7 173.7
0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
5.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

102.1 101.0 90.0 85 80.0
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
5.7 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.5



40.1




10.7



43.3




42.3



29.7



22.2



-21.6
   US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                   COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                         Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
          VAM
         Release
         (m3 per    VAM Cone.
Country  tonne)        (%)
Airflow
 m3/s
2000   2005   2010   2015   2020  Change
Kazakhstan
(Bottom-up analysis)
38.30 Range: 0.07-0.5
Mean: 0.29
India
(Bottom-up analysis)
4.02 Range: 0.1-O.3
Typical: 0.1
United Kingdom
(Top-down analysis)
12.2 N/A

Mexico
(Bottom-up analysis)
28.36 Range: 0.4-0.8
Average: 0.5
Germany
(Bottom-up analysis)
2.75 Range: 0.08-0.8
Average: 0.3
Czech Republic
(Bottom-up analysis)
3.91 Range: 0.1-0.7
Wt. ave.: 0.259



Range (4 shafts): 150-
221
Average (4 shafts):
185.5


Range: 10-40
Typical: 40 at large
mines

N/A



Range: 91-197
Average: 140

N/A



Wt. ave.: 221
Study Total
Other Countries
World Total
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
106 tonnes UG
coal prod.
Bm3VAM
MMT C02e
MMT C02e
MMT C02e
MMT C02e

8.2 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7

69.1 78.2 84.0 89.0 94.0
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
4.0 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4
-25
0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0

4.8 5.4 4.8 5.0 5.0
0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
1.9 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0
31.7 26.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
0.09 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.04
1.2 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6
14.9 13.7 11.8 10.0 8.5
0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03
0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
203.4 228.1 242.5 254.2 264.7
33.7 37.8 40.1 42.1 43.8
237.1 265.9 282.6 296.3 308.5



5.5



36.1


-9.6



4.2


-52.7


-42.8

   US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                    COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET
POTENTIAL:  CHINA


Background
China ranks number one in world coal production  and is
responsible for over 45 percent of the total VAM emissions
from the countries evaluated in this analysis. China's coal  industry is expected to
remain strong over the next two decades to meet the energy needs of its rapidly
growing  economy. It has  large reserves  of gassy, high-rank coal that  contain
coalbed  methane  (CBM) resources  estimated  at twice those of the  US,  and  its
overall  coal  mine  methane  (CMM)  emissions  are  the   largest  worldwide.
Exploitation  of China's coalfields will expand  over time as the  country strives to
upgrade the  size, safety, and efficiency of its mines.

Roughly 85-90 percent of methane released to the atmosphere from coal mining in
China originates  in underground mines, with about 88 percent of that total exiting
via mine ventilation systems. In 1999, approximately 6 billion m3 of methane was
released to the atmosphere from ventilation systems (Zhu, 2001).
Business Climate
China is the world's most populous country, with a rapidly growing economy that
has led to sharp  increases in energy demand. Growth in electricity consumption is
projected  at 5.5  percent per year through 2020. The largest gainer in terms of fuel
share in  the  future  is expected to be natural  gas, due  largely  to environmental
concerns in China's rapidly industrializing coastal provinces. If a truly competitive
market for electric power develops  as planned,  the
Chinese  market  may become  attractive  to  foreign
investment.
China 2000 Data Summary
China is currently attempting to upgrade the size, safety,
and  efficiency  of  its  mines,  and part of  that process
involves  a concerted effort to develop  its CMM re-
sources. Chinese companies with gassy coal mine assets
are actively seeking potential project developers  and
investors.  China and the US  are cooperating to identify
and support the commercialization of CMM projects. To
date,   that  initiative  has   identified  eight   mining
companies that have both attractive CMM resources and
UG Coal Production (MMT)
Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)
VAM Concentration (percent)
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (m3/sec.)
VAM Emission:
            MMTC02e
            Bm3
Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)
"Average
                     949. 1
                       6.8
                       0.5*

                     161.0*
                      92.3
                       6.5
                     220
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
   COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              market potential and thus that appear to offer the best CMM project development
              opportunities in China. For each mine, development plans and utilization  markets
              have been documented and are now available  to international investors. Further
              support is being offered by the Asian  Development Bank, which  will  allocate
              US$200 million to finance  CBM and  CMM projects in the country. This strong
              desire  to  secure  support  and partnership for developing  a range  of CMM
              development projects, including power generation, may offer a positive business
              climate for VAM oxidation and electricity generation. In fact, some Chinese mining
              companies, such as  the Yangquan Coal  Group,  have acknowledged that they are
              anticipating future  application of VAM oxidation  technologies once  economic
              feasibility is proven (World Coal, 2001).

              Methodology
              Zhu (2002) reported typical ventilation airflow rates for small and medium mines
              that range from 16.7 to 83.3 m3 per second (averaging 50 m3 per second), for large
              mines that range from 83.3 to 166.7 m3 per second (averaging 125 m3 per second),
              and for very large very gassy mines that range from  166.7 to 333.3 m3 per second
              (averaging 250 m3 per second). Zhu also quantified underground coal production
              for each mine class for the years 1999 and 2000.  Those coal production data reveal
              that, in  China, the trend in  underground coal  production is moving away from
              smaller mines toward larger mines. The  share of coal production from such large
              mines grew almost 10 percent from  1999 to  2000. Zhu (2001) reported that the av-
              erage VAM emission  rate per unit coal production in China is 6.8 m3 per tonne of
                                                           coal  produced.  He   also  pro-
                                                           vided  a   VAM   concentration
                                                           range of 0.0-0.75  percent, with
                                                           typical  concentrations  ranging
                                                           from 0.3 to 0.6 percent. Wenge
                                                           (2002)  provided additional  data
                                                           characterizing ventilation air at
                                                           gassy   underground   mines   in
                                                           China.  His  data indicate an  av-
                                                           erage   VAM   concentration   of
                                                           0.46 percent  and an  average
                                                           ventilation  airflow rate  of  161
                                                           m3 per second. Being of  more
                                                           recent  origin,  the values  re-
                                                           flected  in the  data provided by
                                                           Wenge were used for this analy-
                                                           sis. Zhu (2002) reported under-

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Figure A-1. MAC Analysis for China—Power Production
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                         COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                                   $3.50
                                   $3.00
                                   $2.50
                                   $2.00
                                   $1.50
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ground  and  surface coal  pro-
duction  levels  for  1999  and
2000, and Zhu (2001) reported
total coal production  projec-
tions  for  2005  and  2015.
USEPA   interpolated  and  ex-
trapolated from those coal pro-
duction data points to estimate
future annual coal production
for  the  2000-2020 study  pe-
riod. The 1999  and 2000  coal
production data revealed that
roughly 95 percent of coal pro-
duced  in China is mined  un-
derground. Because future coal
production   projections  were
not disaggregated, USEPA used
the 95-to-5  ratio (underground  to  surface) reported  for the 1999-2000 period to
project future underground production.

Applying the 6.8 m3 per tonne coal VAM emission rate to the annual underground
coal production projections yielded  annual VAM emissions in Bm3, which were
then converted to units of MMT  of CO2e.
                                   $0.50
                                   $0.00
                                           10
                                                20
                                                    30    40   50   60   70
                                                    Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                                                               90
                                                                                    100
                                      Figure A-2. MAC Analysis for China—Carbon Mitigation
Data from Huang (2002) quantifying CMM degasification and utilization in China
in 2000  revealed that over 220
Mm3 of drained CMM per year
is vented to the atmosphere and
could  be available for use as
supplemental fuel for VAM oxi-
dation projects.
Uncertainties
       Zhu (2001) reports that
       increased   exploitation
       of deeper,  gassy  mines
       over time will likely in-
       crease the  average vol-
       ume   of  methane  re-
       leased per tonne of coal
       produced    nationwide
                                   o
                                   o
                                   
-------
                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                    between  now and 2015. Thus, using the current ratio to estimate the level
                    of methane released per tonne of coal  produced may underestimate future
                    releases.

                 •  Projections of the  actual expected mix of production from small versus
                    medium  versus large underground mines would provide a better basis for
                    calculating an average value for ventilation airflow.

                 •  Estimates of the trend in surface to underground coal production through
                    the study period would improve the VAM emission projections.

             Market Potential
             With methane abatement costs at $3.00 per tonne of CO2e, VAM-derived power
             projects  in China, which  emits  almost 40 percent  of the world's VAM, could
             theoretically create  1,365  MW of net useable capacity, almost half of the world
             total of 2,979  MW. If the equipment value for each project were rounded to $10
             million, the total equipment market estimate for China would be almost $4 billion.
             Finally, the  annual revenues that could  accrue from  such  power sales in  the
             country could  amount to over $430 million.

             References
             Huang (2002):  "Potential  for Commercial Development  of Coal Methane  in
                  China," paper  presented by  Huang  Shengchu,  Vice President, China Coal
                  Information  Institute,  China Coalbed Methane  Clearinghouse, at the 2001
                  International CMM/CBM Investment  and  Technology Symposium, Shanghai,
                  China, 2001.

             Wenge (2002): E-mail  communication  with Liu Wenge, Project Manager, China
                  Coalbed Methane Clearinghouse, Beijing, China, October 17, 2002.

             World Coal  (2001):  "Reducing CBM in Yangquan Coal Field," World Coal, March
                  2001, Volume 10, Number 3.

             Zhu (2001):  E-mail  communication with Zhu Chao,  China Coalbed  Methane
                  Clearinghouse, Beijing, China, July 31, 2001.

             Zhu (2002):  E-mail  communication with Zhu Chao,  China Coalbed  Methane
                  Clearinghouse, Beijing, China, February 7, 2002.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET
POTENTIAL:  UNITED STATES


Background
In recent years,  US mines  have begun to employ an
innovative  means of underground coal mine degasifica-
tion: the use of small-diameter bleeder shafts at longwall coal mines. Used in
conjunction with main  mine  ventilation shafts, bleeders  provide  supplemental
ventilation  in the immediate  vicinity of longwall faces. USEPA (2000) provides an
overview of the use of main mine ventilation shafts versus bleeders, which  use
much smaller  airflows and  typically  have  higher VAM concentrations, offering
particularly attractive opportunities for VAM project development.
Business Climate
The US is the world's largest energy producer, consumer,
and  net importer.  US power demand is  increasing
rapidly, with a forecasted 1.8 percent average annual
growth in electricity sales through 2020. This increase
will require a significant addition in generating capacity.
The US has more experience with CMM recovery than
any other nation. In 2000 the US emitted over 4.0 Bm3 of
CMM from underground coal  mines and recovered 86
percent,  or over 1.0 Bm3, of the  gas liberated through
drainage systems. This represents an almost  three-fold
increase  from the less than 0.4 Bm3  recovered in  1990
(USEPA, 2002a).

Methodology
    United States 2000 Data
           Summary
UG Coal Production (MMT)      338.2
Unit VAM Release (m3/tonne)      7.4
VAM Concentration (percent)      0.4*
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (m3/sec.)           214.4*
VAM Emission:  MMTC02e       36.0
            Bm3            2.5
Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)   250
"Median
To  predict US  VAM emissions over time,  USEPA accessed detailed, historical,
mine-specific  ventilation  emissions  data.   Average  VAM  concentration  and
ventilation  airflow  values were  derived  from   US  Mine  Safety  and  Health
Administration (MSHA) ventilation shaft sampling data, reported for 58 gassy mine
shafts that are monitored quarterly by MSHA. Although different mines had varying
numbers of quarterly sampling results,  data for multiple quarters were available in
all cases.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
      COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
  o
  o
      0.12
      0.09-
      0.03
      0.00
                      10      15     20      25
                       Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
 Figure A-4. MAC Analysis for the United States—Power Production
 USEPA  (2002b)  lists  under-
 ground  coal  production   for
 2000 (372.8 million short tons;
 338.2 million tonnes) and ven-
 tilation system  methane emis-
 sions for  2000  (2.5 Bm3) from
 which  USEPA  derived  a  unit
 VAM emission rate  of 7.45 m3
 per tonne. The US Energy Infor-
 mation Administration  (2001)
 quantified  underground  coal
 production  for  2005,   2010,
 2015, and 2020. Interpolation
 from  those data provided  pro-
 duction estimates for interven-
 ing years.  USEPA projected an-
 nual  VAM emission  estimates
   $3.50
   $3.00
 O $2.50
   $2.00
   $1.50
   $1.00
   $0.50
   $0.00
              by applying the unit VAM emission rate to the annual underground coal production
              estimates. In developing MACs that reflect likely VAM oxidation market potential in
              the US, however, the total VAM emission level reported in USEPA (2002b)  was
              reduced to  reflect the fact that the gassy mines surveyed by MSHA and that have
              VAM flows for  which  oxidation  is technically  feasible   are responsible for
              approximately 82 percent of total US VAM  emissions.
Data   from   USEPA   (2002c)
quantifying CMM degasification
and  utilization  in  the  US  in
2000  revealed   that  approxi-
mately  250  Mm3  of  drained
CMM per year is vented to the
atmosphere and could be avail-
able for  use as supplemental
fuel for VAM oxidation projects.
                    10      15      20     25
                     Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                               30
                                                      35
                                                              Uncertainties
Figure A-5. MAC Analysis for the United States—Carbon Mitigation
       The  mine-specific  data
       obtained  from  MSHA
       offered  highly  detailed
       insight  into the charac-
       teristics of  VAM  flows
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
       from gassy mines in the US, as well as some understanding of the variability
       over time of those flows. Thus, the US analysis  is based  on the most
       detailed data of any of the country analyses.

    •   An  analysis of  airflow and  concentration  for  58  US  ventilation  shafts
       showed a slight bias for increased variability as airflows became smaller.
       The data were significantly affected, however, by the variation of shafts that
       were either just starting up or  nearing their end. Project managers should be
       able to cope with most of the effects  of variability by being fully aware of
       mine plans.
Market Potential
With  methane abatement costs
at $3.00  per  tonne  of CO2e,
VAM-derived  power projects in
the US, which emits over  15
percent of  the world's VAM,
could  theoretically create 457
MW of net  useable capacity. If
the equipment value  for each
project were  rounded  to $10
million,  the  total  equipment
market estimate  for  the  US
would  be  over  $1.2  billion.
Finally, the annual revenues that
could  accrue  from such power
sales   in  the  country   could
amount to over $120 million.
-  $4.00
                                                 0.20% CH 4

                                                 0.30% CH4
  -$1.00
      $0.01    $0.02    $0.03    $0.04    $0.05
                     Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
$0.06
                                                 0.39% CH4
                                                 0,50% CH4
                                                 OJO% CHt
                                                 0.90% CH<
$0.07
      Figure A-6. Opportunity Costs for the United States
References
USEIA (2001): World Energy Outlook, US Energy Information Administration, December
    12,2001.

USEPA (2000): Assessment of Potential Lifetime of a Methane Oxidation System on
    Main  and Longwall Bleeder Shafts,  Coalbed  Methane  Outreach  Program
    publication, October 2000. Available online at http://www.epa.gov/coalbed.

USEPA (2001): Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from  Developed Countries:
    1990-2010,   US   Environmental   Protection  Agency,  EPA-430-R-01-007,
    December 2001.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              USEPA (2002a): Data retrieved from internet site, http://www.epa.gov/coalbed/
                  about.htm, July 2002.

              USEPA (2002b): Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000,
                  US Environmental  Protection Agency, Office of Atmospheric Programs, EPA-
                  430-R-02-003, April 15, 2002.

              USEPA  (2002c):   US   Inventory Changes—Revision  2,  working  draft,   US
                  Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Atmospheric Programs, January 3,
                  2002.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET
POTENTIAL:  UKRAINE


Background
Commercialization and rationalization of the coal indus-
try in Ukraine has yet to be accomplished. State subsidies
for  unprofitable mines  substantively influence coal markets, for example by
requiring coal to be  sold to utilities and other "strategic users" whether they can
pay  or not (World Coal, 2000). Eight mines were scheduled  for  privatization  in
1999, but the fact  that the  state would retain  majority holdings in each frustrated
that  process. Although the state owns  coal mines and coal resources, including
methane (Triplett et al., 2001), mines can be leased, as many successful mines are.

In 2000,  Ukraine had  232  active  coal mines, of which all  but three were
underground workings (Triplett  et  al.,  2001). Even  though  the  industry faces
substantial  challenges deriving from the lack  of commercialization and reform,
annual coal production  is expected to grow.  Filippov (2002) provided total  coal
production projections for 2001 through 2005  and for 2010. He cited subsequent
annual increases in total coal production anticipated at 120-125 million tonnes per
year by  2030. Interest  in  developing  the country's CBM resources  has grown
markedly in recent years, as has the search for  investors who can develop projects
for pipeline gas injection or other beneficial use.
Filippov (2000) reported VAM concentrations at Ukrainian
to 0.6 percent (the lower value is the sensitivity limit of
being used), with typical values ranging from 0.2 to 0.4
percent.  He noted  that 0.75-percent methane is the
maximum allowable concentration  (measured  at the
top of the ventilation shaft) and observes that, although
such  higher concentrations do occur, they  are abnor-
mal events. Triplett (2002) observed that bleeder shafts
currently  are  not  employed  in Ukraine,  probably
because the average working depth of mines there  is
over 700 meters.

Filippov (2000) also quoted a ventilation airflow range
from  51 m3  per second to 215 m3 per second (reflect-
ing the range  of flow rates evidenced  at a sample of
mines ranging from 0.1
 the methane detectors

   Ukraine 2000 Data Summary
UG Coal Production (MMT)       79.2
Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)      26.6*
VAM Concentration (percent)       0.3**
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (rrWsec.)          133"
VAM Emission: MMTC026      30.1
            Bm3            2.1
Drained CMM Available (MrrWyr)  130
"Weighted average
"Average
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              about 30 mines) and observed that  a given  mine  may  have from two  to  five
              ventilation shafts in place. Methane emissions in Ukraine declined from almost 3.9
              Bm3 in 1990 to over 2.0 Bm3 in 2000.
              Business Climate
              Ukraine's energy sector is plagued by a lack of domestic energy sources, increasing
              foreign debt, and  outdated and  inefficient equipment.  The  country's electric
              consumption was  146.7 billion  kWh  in  1999.  In 1998 and 1999 new laws and
              decrees  improved the business  climate  for CBM/CMM development by making
              CBM production projects potentially eligible for certain tax benefits, by establishing
              legal and civil commitments relating to natural  resource development in Ukraine,
              and by establishing Free Economic Zone status in the Donbass region to provide for
              tax incentives that can attract investment  there. Recently the Partnership for Energy
              and Environmental  Reform (PEER), with support from the USEPA, made available
              an inventory of Ukrainian CMM emissions and a Ukrainian  coal mine development
              handbook. In addition, to date PEER also has developed business plans for two of
              the 29 mines addressed by the handbook. Thus, at present the regulatory and tax
              environments in Ukraine  are  more  favorable  than  they  ever  have  been for
              CBM/CMM development.  However,  in  2000  Ukrainian  mines  captured  12.4
              percent of the total  methane liberated,  and only 27.9 percent of the methane
              captured was utilized. These low percentages of methane capture and use result
              from  inadequate   funds  being  available  for   proper  gas  collection  system
                                                             maintenance  or  to  support
                                                             new development projects.

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Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
      Figure A-7. MAC Analysis for Ukraine—Power Production
                                                             Methodology
                                                             Partners In Economic Reform
                                                             (PIER, 2000)  reports that un-
                                                             derground coal production  is
                                                             responsible for 98.5 percent of
                                                             the   total  in   Ukraine.   PEER
                                                             (2002a) provided underground
                                                             coal  production and ventila-
                                                             tion system methane emissions
                                                             for   2001   and  2002,   from
                                                             which a weighted average spe-
                                                             cific  VAM emissions value of
                                                             26.6  m3  per tonne  was de-
                                                             rived.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Production estimates for 1999-
2020  were  interpolated  and
extrapolated  from  the annual
production  reported by  Filip-
pov (2002).  Using  these  pro-
jections  and the 1999 under-
ground-to-total  coal  produc-
tion ratio of 98.5 percent, the
analysis  developed annual un-
derground   coal    production
estimates. The VAM  emission
rate was then applied to the
estimated annual underground
coal production  levels to  esti-
mate annual  VAM emissions.
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is  $1.00
   $0.50
   $0.00
                   10     15     20     25
                   Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
    Figure A-8. MAC Analysis for Ukraine—Carbon Mitigation
Data from  PEER (2002b) quantifying CMM degasification and utilization in Ukraine
in 2000 revealed that over  130 Mm3  of drained  CMM per year is vented to the
atmosphere and could be available for use as supplemental fuel for VAM oxidation
projects.
Uncertainties
       Expansion of coal  mine  methane drainage  could result  in  lower VAM
       emissions  in  future years,  but no  data are  available  to  quantify  such
       reduction.
Market Potential
With methane abatement costs
at $3.00 per tonne  of CO2e,
VAM-derived power  projects
in Ukraine,  which emits  over
12   percent  of  the   world's
VAM, could theoretically cre-
ate  264 MW of net  useable
capacity.  If  the  equipment
value  for  each  project  were
rounded to  $10  million,  the
total  equipment  market  esti-
mate  for  Ukraine would be
over $910 million. Finally, the
                                  _ $4.00
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$3.50

$3.00

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00

$0.50
   $0.00
      $0.01   $0.02   $0.03   $0.04   $0.05   $0.06
                      Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
                                                0.20% CH4
                                                0.24% CH4
                                               0.30% CK,
                                               0.35% CH4

                                               0.40% CH4
                                                0.50% CH4
                                            0.60% CH4
                                           $0.07   $0.08
        Figure A-9. Opportunity Costs for the Ukraine
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                               COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              annual revenues that could accrue from  such  power sales in the country could
              amount to over $70 million.

              References
              Filippov  (2000):  E-mail   communication with  Alexander  Filippov,  Programs
                  Coordinator, Partnership for Energy and Environmental  Reform, Kiev, Ukraine,
                  December 20, 2000.

              Filippov  (2002):  E-mail   communication with  Alexander  Filippov,  Programs
                  Coordinator, Partnership for Energy and Environmental  Reform, Kiev, Ukraine,
                  January 16, 2002.

              PEER (2002a):  Coal  production  and ventilation  system methane emission data
                  provided  by Partnership for Energy and Environmental  Reform, Kiev, Ukraine,
                  August 2002.

              PEER (2002b): Data obtained from the Partnership for Energy and Environmental
                  Reform website at http://www.peer.org.ua/New-1.html.

              PIER (2000):   Inventory  of Methane  Emissions from  Coal Mines in Ukraine:
                  1990-1999,  Partners  In   Economic Reform,  Incorporated,  prepared   in
                  cooperation with the Alternative Fuels Center, Kiev, Ukraine, sponsored by the
                  US Environmental Protection Agency,  August 2000.

              Triplett (2001):  E-mail communication  with Jerry Triplett,  Partnership  for Energy
                  and Environmental Reform (PEER),  Kiev, Ukraine, September 13, 2002.

              Triplett et al.  (2001): Jerry Triplett, Alexander Filippov, and Alexander Pisarenko,
                  Coal Mine Methane in Ukraine: Opportunities for Production and Investment
                  in the Donetsk Coal Basin, January 2001.

              World  Coal (2000): Industry in Motion,  World Coal, February 2000,  Volume  9,
                  Number 2.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET POTENTIAL:
AUSTRALIA


Background
Mutmansky  (2002)  observed  that,  in  general,  Australian
underground coal mining practices closely resemble those in
the US and  that  coal  seam  characteristics  (thickness,  etc.)  also  are  similar.
Australian mining companies have led  the world in demonstrating techniques to
oxidize VAM. At  the Appin  Colliery,  BMP  Engineering Pty.  Ltd. with  Energy
Developments Ltd. (EDL) gathered VAM from a ventilation shaft evase and used it
as combustion air for 54 one-MW Caterpillar engine-generators (Bray, 1998). More
recently,  Australian engineers are designing and testing a number of  promising
VAM-use  technologies. At one  mine site BMP  and MEGTEC Systems  recently
demonstrated the use of a VOCSIDIZER  unit on VAM and extracted thermal energy
from the reactor bed  in the form of low-pressure  steam. That project has been
dismantled, and  a commercial-scale  demonstration  is  being  designed  under the
Australian Greenhouse Gas Abatement Program (GGAP). EDL is developing a lean-
fueled, carbureted gas turbine that will  operate on a methane  mixture of 1.6
percent. The CSIRO Exploration & Mining of Australia has two technologies under
development. The  first is a lean-fueled turbine with a catalytic combustor. The
system will introduce a 1.0 percent fuel/air mixture into the air intake, compress it,
combust it in the catalytic combustor, and expand it through the turbine. The other
system is a hybrid system that cofires waste coal and VAM in a rotary kiln, captures
the heat in a high-temperature air-to-air heat exchanger, and uses the clean, hot air
to power  a  gas  turbine.  Powercoal, an electric utility,  has  another noteworthy
project in  the planning stage. The company will link the
air  intake  of the Vales Point coal-fired power  station to
two mine ventilation systems (Endeavour and Munmorah
Collieries) and use the VAM to supplement the station's
fuel supply.
                                                         Australia 2000 Data Summary
                                                       UG Coal Production (MMT tonnes) 63.6
Business Climate

Australia's  energy consumption  habits  are  similar to
those of the  United States  and  Canada.  Australia's
energy  demand increased  about 3  percent per year
during the 1990s, but has slowed to under 2 percent in
2001 and 2002.
Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)      10.5
VAM Concentration (percent)      0.4*
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (rrWsec.)           225*
VAM Emission:  MMT C026      9.5
            Bm3            0.7
Drained CMM Available (MrriVyr)    50
*Average
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
      COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
     $0.16
  oT  $0.14
     $0.12
     $0.10-
     $0.08
     $0.06
     $0.04
     $0.02
     $0.00
Australia produces in excess of 55 percent of its electrical  power from domestic
coal. Being relatively clean, Australia's coal can  be burned without incurring high
costs for sulfur control,  and this contributes  to  the low cost of electricity  in the
country.

Through  the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Program (GGAP), Australia  is actively
promoting  implementation of activities that will  reduce greenhouse gas emissions
                                                 and sequester carbon. To  that
                                                 end, the  program  is making
                                                 $24  million  available to  two
                                                 projects that will capture  and
                                                 combust  methane to  produce
                                                 electricity at three underground
                                                 coal mines in Queensland  and
                                                 New   South  Wales.   Those
                                                 projects are expected  to result
                                                 in reductions of over 1 million
                                                 tonnes  of methane  release per
                                                 year.

                                                 Methodology
                                                 Wendt et al. (2000) undertook
                                                 a study of the potential to use
                                                 coal  mine   methane  exiting
                                                 Australia's  underground  coal
                                                 mines  in  drainage and ventila-
                                                 tion systems.  That  study  re-
                                                 ported  typical ventilation  air-
                                                 flow rates of 150-300 m3 per
                                                 second and  VAM  concentra-
                                                 tions of 0.0-1.0 percent, with
                                                 typical flows in the  0.1 to 0.7
                                                 percent range, and noted  that
                                                 safety regulations mandate  that
                                                 VAM  concentrations  be  less
                                                 than 1  percent in main ventila-
                                                 tion air   returns.  From  those
                                                 data,  USEPA calculated aver-
                                                 age parameter values to be 0.4
                                                 percent for  concentration  and
                        4       6       8
                       Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
    Figure A-10. MAC Analysis for Australia—Power Production
NPV Carbon Mitigation Cost ($/tonne CO2e at $0.02/kWh)
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00

S
^^^^
_^^^~~
^





3 2 4 6 8 10 12
Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
    Figure A-11. MAC Analysis for Australia—Carbon Mitigation
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
225  m3  per second for flow.
Wendt et al. also reported  an-
nual surface and underground
coal production  data  for  the
country,  which  revealed  that
27.5 percent of coal mined in
Australia  originated  at  under-
ground  mines  in  1997-1998.
Furthermore, Wendt et al. cited
VAM specific  emissions for  a
subset  of  underground  mines
along with coal production data
for  those  mines.  From  those
data   USEPA    calculated    a
weighted average specific emis-
sions value of 10.5 m3 VAM per
tonne of coal mined.
$4.00 -i
$0.00
   $0.01   $0.02   $0.03   $0.04   $0.05   $0.06
                   Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
$0.07
$0.08
       Figure A-12. Opportunity Costs for Australia
To estimate future annual VAM emissions, USEPA first adjusted total  (surface and
underground)  national coal  production  projections from Saghafi (2002) for 2000,
2005,  2010,  2015,  and  2020  by a factor of 27.5 percent  to  estimate future
production from underground coal mines. The VAM specific emissions value then
was applied to the coal production estimates to estimate annual  VAM emissions for
those five years. USEPA interpolated from those estimates to obtain  VAM emissions
for the intervening years.

Data  from  USEPA  (2001)  quantifying  CMM  degasification   and utilization  in
Australia in 2000 revealed that over 50 Mm3 of drained CMM per year is vented to
the atmosphere and  could  be available  for use  as supplemental fuel for VAM
oxidation projects.

Uncertainties

   •   The  extent to which  the  surface to underground coal production  ratio
       reported for   1997-1998 will  accurately  represent the actual  situation
       throughout the 2000-2020 study period is not known.

Market Potential
With methane abatement costs at  $3.00 per tonne of CO2e, VAM-derived power
projects in Australia,  which emits 4 percent of the world's VAM,  could theoretically
create  96 MW of net useable capacity. If the  equipment value for each project
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                          COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
             were rounded to $10  million, the total equipment market estimate for Australia
             would be $243 million. Finally, the annual revenues that could accrue from such
             power sales in the country could amount to over $17 million.

             References
             Bray (1998): The Appin and Tower  Collieries Methane Energy Project,  a BMP
                  Engineering  Pty.  Ltd. report provided  by  Geoff  Bray,  Project  Engineer,
                  September 26, 1998.

             Mutmansky (2002):  Personal dialog  with  Professor  Emeritus  Jan Mutmansky,
                  Pennsylvania State University, January 17, 2002.

             Saghafi (2002):  E-mail communication with  Abouna  Saghafi,  Commonwealth
                  Scientific  and Industrial  Research  Organisation, Sydney,  New South Wales,
                  Australia, September 16, 2002.

             USEPA (2001): Non-CO2  Greenhouse  Gas Emissions from  Developed Countries:
                  1990-2010,  US  Environmental   Protection   Agency,  EPA-430-R-01-007,
                  December 2001.

             Wendt et al. (2000): Methane Capture and Utilisation Final Report, Commonwealth
                  Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Exploration and  Mining Report
                  #723R, Australian  Coal Association Research Program (ACARP)  Report #8058,
                  May 2000.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET
POTENTIAL:  RUSSIA

Background
Russia's coal industry has undergone sub-
stantial  restructuring to  make  it viable  in  a  market economy. As  elsewhere,
unprofitable mines have been closed, and that process will continue. In addition,
commercial privatization of the mines began in 1997 with the sale of state shares in
two  coal  companies  to  Russian  and  other investors. As commercialization  of
potentially viable  mines continues, market  pressures will  decree which  mines
remain operational and which close.

The  largest and most  important  coal-producing region in  Russia,  the Kuzbass,
located  in the south-central part of the country, has  hard coal reserves estimated to
be on the order of 14.5 billion tonnes. USEPA (1996) reported that about one-third
of the coal produced  in  Russia came  from the Kuzbass. Other coal-producing
regions  in Russia  that have the  potential for  CBM/CMM development are  the
Donetsk Basin, which  Russia shares with Ukraine,  and the Pechora Basin  in  the
north.

Tailakov (2000a) states that 1998 underground coal production in Russia  was
approximately 80 million tonnes, with 19.4 percent  of that total originating at gassy
mines. He also  quantified  the percent  of drained  methane (not available  to  the
ventilation system) at 30 percent.  Thus,  70  percent  of the methane liberated at
gassy mines exits in the  ventilation  airflow.  Tailakov (2000b)  noted  that  the
application of degasification in gassy Russian mines may increase in future years,
along with coal  production  from underground  mines.
Russian  mines sometimes  employ bleeder shafts that emit
VAM at high concentrations, and these may offer excellent
opportunities for VAM projects.
  Russia 2000 Data Summary
Business Climate
Russia has sufficient power production potential to supply
domestic  consumers   and  to  export  power  to  other
countries.  However,   increased  industrial  demand  for
electricity also has forced power stations to operate  at
higher capacity,  straining  power companies'  ability  to
procure fuel  supplies.  A lack of fuel supplies at power
UG Coal Production (MMT)       63.5
Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)      10.2
VAM Concentration (percent)      0.4*
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (rrWsec.)            43*
VAM Emission:  MMT C026      9.2
            Bm3           0.6
Drained CMM Available (MrrWyr)  260
"Average
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
    COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              stations has already led to periodic power outages. Although  Russia continues to
              struggle to establish  a modern market economy, recent improvements in  certain
              economic indicators  and renewed governmental efforts to achieve needed reforms
              have   combined  to  raise   expectations  of  improved  business   investment
              opportunities in  the country during the next decade. The real  GDP growth rate in
              Russia was 8.3 percent in 2000 and 4.7 percent in 2001.

              CBM  and CMM  development  in  Russia has been actively promoted and supported
              by the Russian Coalbed Methane Center,  established in 1995 in Kemerovo.  In June
              2002  the Center attained the status of an  independent, non-profit entity named the
              International Coal & Methane Center (ICMC) "Uglemetan" (www.uglemetan.ru). By
              continuing and  building  on  the CBM  Center's  work,  Uglemetan will  focus its
              energies  on disseminating information on  CMM use  in  Russia, offering resource
              assessment and  laboratory analytical services, conducting project feasibility  and
              economic studies, facilitating CMM industry networking, developing and providing
              training,  and offering other CMM development consulting and logistical services.
              Through  prior USEPA-supported efforts of the CBM Center, Uglemetan can make
              available  Russian  coal permeability  and desorption  property data,  providing a
              sound information  base to support identification of CMM project opportunities. In
              addition,   certain   site-specific   projects   already  have  been   proposed   for
              implementation. Thus, the business climate for CMM development in Russia at this
              time is very supportive.
      $0.21 ,
      $0.18
      $0.15
  <3    $0.12
 ~    $0.09
      $0.06
      $0.03
      $0.00
                       34567
                      Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                                       10
     Figure A-13. MAC Analysis for Russia—Power Production
Methodology
Tailakov (2002a) provided  un-
derground,  surface,  and total
coal  production   figures  for
1990-2001.  Tailakov  (2002b)
confirmed  VAM  concentration
and  ventilation  airflow  ranges
and  typical  values previously
provided, but clarified that  the
range values actually  relate to
regulatory  limits rather than to
in-field   conditions.  However,
since the "typical" values pro-
vided very closely  match  the
median  concentration and flow
values derived for the US from
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
shaft-specific  monitoring  data,  USEPA  considered them to  be adequate  and
appropriate  for application in this analysis. Tailakov  (2000a) provided  total  coal
production projections for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010. These projections were
adjusted to estimate underground coal  production assuming that the proportion of
underground coal  production  remains constant at 29  percent  over the next two
decades.  Tailakov's  coal  production  projections  provided both  minimum  and
maximum production  estimates, and  USEPA based its analysis on the  minimum
production values and interpolated and extrapolated from the 2000, 2005, and
2010 projections.
The ratio of 1998 underground
coal  produced  and  methane
released  in gassy underground
coal mine ventilation  systems
was used to predict ventilation
air methane emissions through
2020.  In  1998, 798.5  Mm3 of
methane were released in Rus-
sia  from  underground   coal
mine  ventilation  air systems.
With  underground  coal  pro-
duction  of  78.48  MMT that
year,   that  emission  equates
with  a  unitized VAM release
tf)
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 34567
Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                    Figure A-14. MAC Analysis for Russia—Carbon Mitigation
rate  of 10.18  m  per tonne
produced. Combining that value with the annual total coal production projections
yielded annual VAM emissions estimates.

Data from USEPA (1996) quantifying CMM degasification and utilization in Russia
in 1994 revealed that  over 260 Mm3 of drained CMM per year  is vented to  the
atmosphere and could  be available for use as supplemental fuel for VAM oxidation
projects.

Both US  and Russian underground  coal mines employ bleeder shafts to enhance
degasification at longwall operations. Therefore, in constructing the MAC curve for
Russia, the analysis applied  the full  US distribution  of VAM concentration and
ventilation airflow.  Russian bleeder  shaft management is different from that in  the
US, however. Brunner (2000) noted that Russian bleeder shafts are  managed so that
they drain methane at higher  concentrations than is the case in the US, discharging
that gas through explosion-proof fans at the surface. Tailakov (2002b) corroborated
this  practice  and  reported  that  the  Russian  bleeder  shafts exhibit  methane
concentrations as high as 3-12 percent.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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£•
               Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
    — $4.00
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$1.50

$1.00

$0.50

$0.00
      -$0.50
                                                 0.20% CH4
                                                 0.38% CK,
                                                 0.45% CH4
0.57% CH4
0.70% CH4
                                          0.75% CH4
         $0.01   $0.02  $0.03   $0.04  $0.05   $0.06
                         Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
                                          $0.07  $0.08
                                                                Uncertainties
              Figure A-15. Opportunity Costs for Russia
The possible increase in
degasification   at  gassy
Russian mines  noted by
Tailakov  (2000b)  may
result in a  reduction in
the amount of methane
exiting from mine venti-
lation systems per unit of
coal   produced,   thus
causing this analysis to
overestimate the  actual
emissions. However, the
possible  increase in un-
derground coal produc-
tion also noted by Taila-
                       kov may offset the methane release reduction attributable to increased gas
                       drainage. No basis for quantifying this relationship is available at this time.

                    •   Projections of the likely trend in  future underground versus surface  coal
                       production would improve the VAM emission analysis.

                Market Potential
                With  methane abatement costs at $3.00 per tonne of CO2e, VAM-derived power
                projects  in  Russia, which emits  almost  4 percent of the  world's  VAM, could
                theoretically  create 141  MW  of net useable capacity. If the equipment value for
                each project  were rounded to  $10 million, the total equipment market estimate for
                Russia would be $498 million. Finally, the annual  revenues that could accrue from
                such power sales in the country could amount to almost $56 million.

                References
                Brunner  (2000): Summary of Kuzntesk Coal Basin Mining Conditions and  their
                    Implications on Methane Emissions Reduction Projects, trip report submitted to
                    US Environmental Protection Agency, Coalbed Methane  Outreach Program,
                    March 28, 2000.

                Tailakov (2000a): E-mail communication with Oleg Tailakov, Director,  Russia
                    Coalbed Methane Center,  August 30, 2000.
  US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                           COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Tailakov (2000b):  E-mail  communication with Oleg Tailakov,  Director,  Russia
    Coalbed Methane Center, Kemerovo,  Russia, December 18, 2000.

Tailakov (2002a): Underground,  surface,  and total coal production data provided
    by  Oleg  Tailakov, Director,  Russia Coalbed  Methane  Center,  Kemerovo,
    Russia, July 11, 2002.

Tailakov (2002b):  Personal dialog with Oleg Tailakov, Director,  Russia Coalbed
    Methane Center, Kemerovo,  Russia, December 19, 2002.

USEPA  (1996):  Reducing  Methane  Emissions from  Coal  Mines  in  Russia: A
    Handbook for Expanding Coalbed Methane Recovery and  Use in the Kuznetsk
    Coal Basin, US Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Air and Radiation,
    EPA-430-D-95-001.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION  MARKET
POTENTIAL: SOUTH AFRICA


Background
Because  methane drainage  is not currently employed in
South Africa, essentially all of the methane liberated from
gassy underground coal mines is released via mine ventilation systems at very low
concentrations. Furthermore, although mining gassy anthracite coal will decline in
South Africa,  mining deeper bituminous coals  will increase, so these factors will
balance out, and the average ratio of methane released per tonne of coal mined
underground should stay about the same through 2020 (Nlundlall, 2001).

Annual underground coal  production  estimates for the period 2000-2005  were
provided by Nundlall (2001), but that source did not supply projections from  2006
and beyond. An earlier reference (Lloyd et al., 2000),  however, did project overall
coal  production for the period 1990-2030. That source predicted an approximate 7
percent rise in production  from 2000  to 2007,  followed by a  drop to  a  level
roughly 3 percent below 2000 levels  by 2020. Thus, on average, underground coal
production for the period 2000-2020 will approximate that exhibited in 2000.
Business Climate

Although  South  Africa's  economic  growth  has  been
somewhat sluggish in recent  years,  its  economy on the
whole  is strong.  Thus, where technically  feasible  VAM
development  opportunities  present themselves,  business
and economic factors in the country should be supportive
of project development and implementation.

Methodology

Based  on  the   expected   trend  in  underground  coal
production  revealed  in Lloyd  et al.  (2000), the annual
underground  coal production  level reported by  Nundlall
assumed to approximate the average production level for the
South Africa 2000 Data Summary

UG Coal Production (MMT)      142.1
Unit VAM Release (m3/tonne)      2.8
VAM Concentration (percent)      0.1*
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (rrWsec.)          N/A
VAM Emission:  MMT C026
            Bm3
                                                                                  5.8
                                                                                  0.4
                                                        Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)   N/A
                                                        "Mean
                                                      (2001) for  2005 was
                                                      period 2006-2020.
Nundlall (2001) indicates that the typical ventilation airflow rates at South African
mines  are "extremely variable" and that VAM  concentrations  range  from 0.05
percent to 0.2 percent. Thus, the higher end of the concentration range falls at the
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              lower end of the current VAM oxidation technology capability range.  Because of
              these  very  low VAM concentrations, South African  mines were not viewed as
              attractive candidates  for oxidation technologies at this time. This conclusion was
              confirmed by Lloyd (2002), who stated that the average depth of underground coal
              being mined in the country is only about 80 meters, and the coal therefore is often
              largely degassed. This condition  is reflected in recent studies in  such mines that
              have yielded  measurements of methane in  return airways of 0.08 percent, plus or
              minus 0.0002 percent.

              Nundlall  (2001) also provided data  quantifying the rate of methane  release per
              tonne of coal mined underground at 2.83 m3 per tonne. That figure was applied to
              the estimates  of annual  underground coal projections to obtain annual estimates of
              VAM release throughout the study period.

              Data to quantify drained CMM  available for use as  supplemental fuel for VAM
              oxidation projects in South Africa were unavailable.

              Uncertainties

                 •   Although  typical  VAM concentrations at South African  coal mines are
                     below  levels  considered necessary  to support current  VAM oxidation
                     technologies,  the percentage of mines with concentrations higher than the
                     average, and  thus potentially able  to  support  oxidation projects, is not
                     known. It is possible  that viable project potential does  exist at some mines
                     in the country.

              Market Potential
              The study did not include a  MAC curve for South Africa, which emits less than  3
              percent of the world's VAM, because of low VAM concentrations.

              References

              Lloyd et al. (2000):  P.J.D. Lloyd, D. van Wyk, A. Cook, and X.  Provost,  SA Country
                  Studies: Mitigating  Options Project, Emissions from Coal Mining, Final Report,
                  June 2000.

              Lloyd (2002): E-mail  communication with P.J.D. Lloyd, Energy Research Institute,
                  University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, September 10,  2002.

              Nundlall  (2001):  E-mail communication with Vijay Nundlall,  Senior Inspector of
                  Mines, Occupational Hygiene, Pretoria,  South Africa, September 24, 2001.

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET POTENTIAL:
POLAND


Background
In Poland hard coal is produced at underground mines and the
vast majority (about 95 percent) of Poland's underground coal
currently is produced  in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB).
Projections estimate that the basin will continue to supply over 90
percent of total production through  the  next two decades (World Coal,  2001 a).
USEPA (1995)  reports  that 28 percent of  methane liberated is drained, 79  percent
of which is utilized. Thus, 72 percent of methane liberated  by underground mining
exits through ventilation systems.

A government program enacted in  1998  and  titled  "Reform  of the  Hard Coal
Industry  in Poland   in  1998-2002"  is  striving to  rationalize  the country's
underground  coal  mining  industry. That  is being achieved  by increasing  the
productivity and,  hence,  the economic  viability of  its domestic mining  entities
(World Coal, 2001 b and 2001 c). The country requires a stable, market economy-
based underground coal industry, because  it produces essentially all of its electric
power from coal,  and  projections indicate  that hard coal will remain the  primary
power production  resource through the next two decades (World Coal, 2001 a).
                                                           Poland 2000 Data Summary
Business Climate

Poland has an expanding economy and is in the process of
restructuring  and   reforming  its  energy  industry.   Its
abundant reserves of coal provide a  secure source  of
energy and foreign exchange, but heavy reliance on coal
is also a major source of pollution. The Polish government
expects electricity demand to grow by over 50 percent by
2020.

Grzybek  (2001)  reports that coalbed methane has been
captured  and  productively used in Poland  since  1952.    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Although CMM use declined sharply in  1993 when pipeline injection ceased, the
increase  in its use by the  power sector has offset that decline. Furthermore, CMM
use has  diversified through its  increased application  in  the chemical and oil
refining industries. Thus, the value of CMM is recognized in Poland and conditions
at present and into the future are good for implementing CMM projects.
UG Coal Production (MMT)       102.1
Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)      3.9
VAM Concentration (percent)      0.3*
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (m3/sec.)           221*
VAM Emission:  MMTC02e      5.7
            Bm3            0.4
Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)   45
*Weighted average
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
    COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane

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    Figure A-16. MAC Analysis for Poland—Power Production
                                              The real GDP growth rate was 4
                                              percent in 2000 and 2.5 percent
                                              in 2001.

                                              Methodology
                                              Kwarcinski   (2000)   provided
                                              VAM releases for 1991  to 1996
                                              and hard  coal  production  for
                                              1995  to 2000, 2005,  2010,
                                              2015,  and 2020. Those data re-
                                              veal a VAM emission rate of
                                              3.91 m3 per tonne  of coal pro-
                                              duced underground in  Poland.
                                              Data  in  World Coal  (2001 a)
                                              confirmed the rate of decline in
                                              production  levels  reported  by
                                              Kwarcinski. USEPA interpolated
                                              from the underground coal pro-
                                              duction  data points to estimate
                                              future  annual  coal  production
                                              for  the   2000-2020  period.
                                              USEPA derived VAM emission
                                              projections  for the study  period
                                              by applying the VAM emission
                                              rate obtained from  Kwarcinski
                                              to  the  projections  of  annual
                                              coal production.

                                              Kwarcinski  (2000) characterized
                                              the range of VAM concentration
                                              in  Poland  as 0.1-0.7  percent.
                                              Because  USEPA has  detailed,
                                              mine-specific VAM characteri-
zation data available for the subset of gassy mines in Poland, however, those data,
which in 1993 reflected  a  VAM concentration  range  of 0.1-0.4 percent (USEPA,
1995), were used in  this  analysis. Thus, the market potential for Poland presented
in this analysis underestimates the market if the more recent VAM concentration
range estimate is correct.  USEPA  (1995) provides underground coal production
statistics  for 32  Polish mines,  16 of which  also  have  VAM concentration  and
ventilation  system airflow statistics reported.  From those data, USEPA derived a
NPV Carbon Mitigation Cost ($/tonne CO2e at $0.048/kWh)
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Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
     Figure A-17. MAC Analysis for Poland—Carbon Mitigation
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
weighted average VAM concen-
tration   (0.26  percent)   and
ventilation  system  airflow (221
m3  per second) for  the subset of
mines that have VAM concentra-
tions  high  enough to  support
oxidation  projects.  Data  from
USEPA (1995) quantifying CMM
degasification and  utilization  in
Poland in  1993 revealed that ap-
proximately 45 Mm3 of drained
CMM per year is vented to the
atmosphere  and could be avail-
able for use  as supplemental fuel
for VAM oxidation projects.

Uncertainties
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gation Cos
NPV Carbon
$2.50

$2.00



$1.00



$0.00
                                             0.20% CH4
                                             0.30% cm
                                             0.40% CH4
     $0.01   $0.02  $0.03   $0.04   $0.05   $0.06  $0.07   $0.08
                     Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
          Figure A-18. Opportunity Costs for Poland
    •   The extent to which the ventilation flow characterization data reported by
       USEPA (1995) reflect conditions at Polish mines at present is unknown.

Market Potential
In generating the MAC curves for Poland the total annual volume of VAM emitted
by the country overall was reduced to  reflect the fact that data in  USEPA (1995)
reveal that the mines in Poland that are gassy enough to offer viable VAM oxidation
opportunities equate with  65 percent of all VAM  released there. With  methane
abatement costs  at $3.00  per tonne of CO2e, VAM-derived  power  projects in
Poland, which emits over 2 percent  of the  world's VAM,  theoretically  could
produce 52  MW of net useable capacity. If the equipment value for each project
were  rounded  to  $10 million, the  total  equipment market estimate  for Poland
would be  $258 million. Finally, the  annual  revenues that could accrue from such
power sales  in the country could amount to over $22 million.

References
Grzybek (2001):  "Utilization of Coalbed  Methane  in  Poland,"  I. Grzybek, in
    Proceedings  of the  4th  International Symposium on  Eastern Mediterranean
    Geology, Isparta, Turkey, May 24-25, 2001.

Kwarcinski (2000): E-mail communication with Jan Kwarcinski, Polish  Geological
    Institute, Upper Silesian Branch,  September 2000.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              USEPA (1995):  Reducing Methane Emissions from Coal  Mines  in  Poland:  A
                  Handbook for Expanding Coalbed Methane  Recovery and Utilization in the
                  Upper Silesian Basin, US Environmental  Protection Agency, Office of Air and
                  Radiation, EPA/430-R-95-003, April 1995.

              World Coal (2001 a): "Hard  Coal  in Poland: Changes and Prospects," World Coal,
                  November 2001, Vol. 10, No. 11.

              World Coal (2001 b): "An Industry in Reform," World Coal, November  2001, Vol.
                  10, No. 11.

              World Coal (2001 c): "Fifty Years of Activity," World Coal, November  2001, Vol.
                  10, No. 11.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET
POTENTIAL:  KAZAKHSTAN

Background
As  of  2000, most  coal  operations in Kazakhstan  were
privately owned. Through  this privatization  process,  enhanced  by  legislative
changes that have liberalized trade, the future of Kazakhstan's underground  coal
mines appears to be sound. (World Coal, 2000)

Business Climate
Kazakhstan is important to world energy markets because it has significant oil and
natural gas reserves. As foreign investment pours into the country's oil and natural
gas sectors, the landlocked Central Asian state is beginning to realize its enormous
production potential. With sufficient export options, Kazakhstan could become one
of the world's largest oil producers and exporters in the next decade.
Conditions for CMM project development in the country
are  sound,  with  the  Kazakhstan  Climate  Change
Coordination Center actively providing  legal and other
support for such initiatives. Broad-scale activities include
approval of the Methane Center of Kazakhstan's work
program and schedule of activities relating to greenhouse
gas  emission   mitigation.  Specific  initiatives  include
improving  the  country's methane  inventory (including
methane emitted  from  underground coal mines), assess-
ing CBM reserves, conducting degasification demonstra-
tion  projects,  analyzing  the  legislative  and investment
environment affecting and barriers faced  by CMM project
developers,  training,  and  information  transfer.  Those    '
efforts  should substantially  improve the  body of  information
effective project identification and planning.
Kazakhstan 2000 Data Summary
UG Coal Production (MMT)        8.2
Unit VAM Release (m3/tonne)      38.3
VAM Concentration (percent)       0.3*
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (m3/sec.)           186
VAM Emission:  MMTC02e       4.5
            Bm3             0.3
Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)   25
"Mean
 available to support
Data from  Republic  State Enterprise  (2002) quantifying  CMM  degasification and
utilization in  Kazakhstan  in 2000 revealed that over 25 Mm3 of drained CMM per
year is vented to the atmosphere and could be available for use as supplemental
fuel for VAM  oxidation projects.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
     COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
  o
  o
      $0.16
      $0.14
      $0.12-
  13   $0.10
      $0.08
      $0.06
      $0.04
      $0.02
      $0.00
        0.00   0.50   1.00   1.50   2.00   2.50   3.00   3.50
                       Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                                  4.00
                                                       4.50
    Figure A-19. MAC Analysis for Kazakhstan—Power Production
   $4.00
   $3.50
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  £ $2.50
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  g $1.50
  is
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  s
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  ro
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  %. $0.00
                      1.50   2.00   2.50   3.00   3.50
                    Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
   Figure A-20. MAC Analysis for Kazakhstan—Carbon Mitigation
Methodology
Shvetz (2001) reported a meth-
ane  concentration   range  of
0.07-0.5  percent, with a mean
of 0.29 percent for (spat Karmet
mines, Kazakhstan's largest un-
derground coal  company. He
also stated that the volume of
methane  entering the  atmos-
phere from Ispat Karmet under-
ground coal  mine  ventilation
systems in 2000 was 314 Mm3
and that those mines produced
8.2  million   tonnes.   USEPA
used those data to calculate a
methane  release  rate  of 38.3
m3  per tonne  of underground
coal  produced.  Shvetz  pro-
jected  that  annual  production
from Ispat Karmet underground
mines  in  2001 would  be 8.5
million tonnes and for the pe-
riod 2001-2005 would be 8.65
million tonnes per year.  In the
absence of additional informa-
tion regarding  future  under-
ground coal production, USEPA
assumed  that  the  production
level for the 2001-2005 period
also reflects that for  the  2006-
2020 period  and  interpolated
and extrapolated from the given
              figures  to  obtain  annual  underground  coal  production  estimates for the study
              period.  Combining the  VAM  emission  rate  with  annual  underground  coal
              production yielded estimates of annual VAM liberation.

              Uncertainties

                  •   The extent to which the Ispat Karmet mines are representative of the other
                     underground coal  mines in Kazakhstan is not known.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                                                   o
    •   The extent to which the underground coal  production projection for the
       2001-2005  period will  represent actual  production in the  20-year  study
       period is unknown.
Market Potential
With methane abatement costs
at $3.00  per  tonne of CO2e,
VAM-derived  power  projects
in  Kazakhstan,  which  emits
almost   2  percent   of  the
world's VAM, could theoreti-
cally  create 11  MW  of  net
useable capacity. If the equip-
ment value for each  project
were  rounded to $10 million,
the  total  equipment  market
estimate for Kazakhstan would
be  $29  million.  Finally,  the
annual  revenues  that  could
accrue from such  power sales
in the country could amount
to almost $2 million.
$4.00
$3.50

$3.00 -

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00

$0.50
$0.00
 0.20% CH4
 0.29% CH,
 0.36% CH4
 0.43% CH4
 0.50% CH4
   $0.01    $0.02   $0.03    $0.04   $0.05   $0.06
                   Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
$0.07
$0.08
     Figure A-21. Opportunity Costs for Kazakhstan
References
RSE  (2002): Kazakhstan! CHC Emissions Inventory From Coal Mining and Road
     Transportation, Republic State Enterprise, Kazhydromet, July 2002.

Shvetz (2001):  E-mail communication with  Igor A. Shvetz, Director, Ispat Karmet
     JSC, Karaganda, Kazakhstan, September 7, 2001.

World Coal (2000):  "Industry in Motion," World Coal, February 2000, Volume 9,
     Number 2.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET POTENTIAL:
INDIA


Background
In India, underground coal  production  currently comprises
approximately 25  percent of total  production, and  annual
tonnage  of underground  coal produced there  has  remained
essentially steady over the past two decades (World Coal,  1999). Singh (2001 a)
observes India's trend toward  a  decrease  in the share of underground coal
production.  That trend, however,  appears  to  derive primarily  from a dramatic
increase  in surface production in recent years rather than  from a drop in absolute
production from underground mines (World Coal, 1999). The coal seams currently
being  exploited  are  not particularly gassy,  and methane concentrations  in
ventilation airflows even at the gassiest mines are low, typically below 0.3 percent.
This is because underground coal mining in India is very labor intensive and high
ventilation airflows are necessary to provide adequate air  for the many miners
working  below ground. Also, less methane  is released into the workings per unit
time than is the case in highly mechanized mines such as those in the  United States
(Singh, 2002). Therefore,  until deeper, gassier seams are tapped,  India's potential
for  profitable VAM oxidation projects will remain  modest at best. Singh (2001 b)
states that 66 percent of the  underground mines emit less than 1  m3 per tonne of
coal produced, 27 percent of underground mines emit from 1 to  10 m3 per tonne,
and the remaining mines (7 percent) emit over 10 m3.
                                                              India 2000 Data Summary
UG Coal Production (MMT)
Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)
VAM Concentration (percent)
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (m3/sec.)
VAM Emission:
Business Climate

India, the world's sixth largest energy consumer, plans major
energy infrastructure investments to  keep up with  increasing
demand—particularly for  electric power.  India also  is the
world's third-largest producer of coal, and relies on coal for
more than half of its total energy needs.

India is trying to expand electric power  generation capacity,
as  current generation is  seriously  below  peak  demand.
Although  about 80  percent of the  population  has access to electricity, power
outages are common, and  the unreliability of electricity supplies is severe enough
to constitute  a constraint  on the country's  overall  economic development.  The
government has targeted capacity increases of 107,000 MW by 2007. As of January
            MMTC02e
            Bm3
Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)
* Typical
                       69.1
                        4.0
                       0.1*

                       40*
                       4.0
                       0.3
                       N/A
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Jfi
                     Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                1999, total installed Indian power  generating capacity was 103,445 MW, and it
                appears that the increase will fall short of expectations.

                Methodology
                For this analysis, Singh (2001 a) provided estimates of underground coal production
                for 1999, 2006, and 2011; total VAM release for those years; VAM concentrations
                at gassiest mines (typically below 0.3 percent and often below 0.1 percent); and a
                typical ventilation  airflow rate (i.e., 10-15 m3 per second in small mines and 40 m3
                per  second in larger mines). From  the coal production and VAM release data,
                USEPA derived a value for unit methane release per tonne of coal produced of 4.02
                m3 per tonne. Also, USEPA interpolated and extrapolated from the three sets of coal
                production and VAM release data points to estimate future annual coal production
                and VAM release for the 2000-2020 study period.

                Data to  quantify drained CMM available for  use  as supplemental  fuel for VAM
                oxidation projects  in India were unavailable.

                Uncertainties

                   •  The schedule of exploitation of gassy,  deep coal  is unknown at this time.
                      Such exploitation, however,  is  expected to result in gassier  ventilation air
                      streams thus offering the potential for future VAM project development.

                Market Potential
                The study did not  prepare a MAC curve for  India, which emits less than  2 percent
                of the world's VAM, because of low VAM concentrations.

                References
                Singh (2001 a):  E-mail communication  with Umesh Prasad Singh,  Deputy  Chief
                    Engineer, Coal India,  Ltd., Calcutta, India, July 11, 2001.

                Singh (2001 b):  Indian  Coalbed Methane  Scenario, paper  presented by Umesh
                    Prasad Singh,  Deputy Chief Engineer, Coal India, Ltd., Proceedings of the 2001
                    International Coalbed Methane Symposium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, May 14—18, 2001.

                Singh (2002):  E-mail communication  with Umesh  Prasad Singh,  Deputy  Chief
                    Engineer, Coal India,  Ltd., Calcutta, India, September 27, 2002.

                World Coal (1999): "Indian Coal: The Future?" World Coal, April 1999, Volume 8,
                    Number 4.
  US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
           t?
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET POTENTIAL:
UNITED KINGDOM


Background
UK underground coal production and  consumption  has been  in
decline for years.  In  1999, underground  mines accounted  for 21
million tonnes, or 58.3 percent of overall coal production, down from
its 80.2 percent contribution in 1990. More telling in terms of trends
is the fact that from 1990 to 1999 surface coal production declined by
slightly over 15 percent while underground production declined by more than 70
percent.

This decline in coal production partly results from a  move away from coal-fired
electricity generation, the UK's largest industrial sector consumer of coal, to newer,
combined-cycle, gas  turbine-based  generation.  Although  initiatives  have  been
introduced to stabilize the  current underground coal industry  and redress to  some
extent  the  social impacts  of that industry's collapse, the  growth  in  gas-fired
generation  in  the   UK and  Europe  continues.  Although coal-fired  generation
accounted for about 65 percent of the UK's power production  in 1990,  projections
suggest that it will fall to less than 20 percent by 2012 (World Coal, 2000).
Business Climate

Prospects for methane emission control  projects appear
bright. The  government has established a budget of £150-
£200 million ($247.9-$330.6 million)17 over five years to
support a greenhouse  gas emission trading market. In that
market, firms can bid in a competitive auction for  £215
million ($355.3 million) of government incentive money in
return for pledges to cut emissions. UK Coal recently bid
successfully for £21  million ($34.6 million) in  emissions
reductions  under  that program  that they  will achieve by
installing CMM-based  electricity generation equipment at a
number of their 13 deep mines.
    UK 2000 Data Summary
UG Coal Production (MMT)     -25
Unit VAM Release (m3/tonne)      12.2
VAM Concentration (percent)     N/A
Average Shaft Ventilation
   Airflow (rriVsec.)          N/A
VAM Emission:  MMT C026      2.2
            Bm3            0.2
Drained CMM Available (MrrWyr)    80
  Currency conversion based on January 2003 rates (£1 =$1.647).
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
    COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
                     Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Electricity Price ($/kWh at $0/tonne CO2e)











A I


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0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
Figure A-22. MAC Analysis for the United Kingdom—Power Production
     $3.50
  §  $3.00
     $2.50
     $2.00
  O  $1.50
  S  $1.00
  •C  $0.50
  ro
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     $0.00
       0.00
                 0.50       1.00       1.50       2.00
                      Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                                      2.50
                                                 Methodology
                                                 King (2002) reported ventila-
                                                 tion shaft emissions and  an-
                                                 nual coal production for  the
                                                 13 active underground mines
                                                 owned by  UK  Coal,  which
                                                 constitute 90  percent  of  un-
                                                 derground coal production in
                                                 the  country. From those data,
                                                 a  weighted average  specific
                                                 VAM emission of 12.2  m3  per
                                                 tonne was  calculated.  British
                                                 Coal   Technical    Services
                                                 (BCTS, ND) reported that at-
                                                 mospheric methane emissions
                                                 data  (i.e.,   emissions  from
                                                  ventilation  and drainage sys-
                                                  tems) reviewed for their study
                                                  of deep coal mines in the  UK
                                                  indicated that  roughly 70 per-
                                                  cent of those emissions origi-
                                                  nated at ventilation fan drifts.
                                                  Lacking data that projects fu-
                                                  ture  UK  underground  coal
                                                  production,  USEPA used the
                                                  top-down   methodology  de-
                                                  scribed earlier to estimate fu-
                                                  ture VAM emissions. Analysts
                                                  applied the underground coal
                                                  production   percentage  re-
                                                  ported  by  King (2002)—61
                                                  percent—to  estimates  of over-
all methane liberation from coal mining (in million tonnes  of CO2e) reported in
USEPA  (2001) for  2000, 2005,  and 2010 to estimate that  portion of methane
emission attributable to  underground  mining.  The  analysis then applied  the 70-
percent VAM figure cited above to  those values to disaggregate that portion  of the
projected overall underground methane emissions that would exit through mine
ventilation systems.
Figure A-23. MAC Analysis for the United Kingdom—Carbon Mitigation
 US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

-------
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                                                     o
Data from USEPA (2001) quantifying CMM degasification and utilization in the UK
in 2000 revealed that over 80  Mm3 of drained CMM  per year is vented to the
atmosphere and could be available for use as supplemental fuel for  VAM oxidation
projects.

Uncertainties

    •   The  viability of underground mining in the UK is not clear, and therefore
       the  availability of  active underground mines to support VAM oxidation
       projects is uncertain.
Market Potential
With methane abatement costs
at $3.00  per tonne of  CO2e,
VAM-derived power  projects
in the  United Kingdom,  which
emits less than 1 percent of the
world's VAM,  could theoreti-
cally  create 31  MW  of net
useable capacity. If the equip-
ment value  for  each  project
were  rounded to $10 million,
the  total  equipment  market
estimate for  the  United  King-
dom  would be  $96  million.
Finally, the  annual  revenues
that  could  accrue  from  such
power  sales  in  the  country
could   amount   to  over  $8
million.
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o
O
o
>
0.
  $3.50 -
$3.00
  $2.50 -
  $2.00
= $1.50 -
  $1.00
$0.50 -
  $0.00
                                             0.31 %CH4
                                             0.40% CH,
                                           0.55% CH4
                                             0.60% CH4
                                             0.70% CH4
     $0.01   $0.02    $0.03   $0.04   $0.05   $0.06   $0.07    $0.08
                     Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
    Figure A-24. Opportunity Costs for the United Kingdom
References

BCTS (ND): "Quantification of Methane Emissions from British Coal Mine Sources,"
     British Coal Technical Services and Research Executive, report prepared for the
     Working Group on Methane Emissions, The Watt Committee on Energy.

King (2002): Data  provided by Brian King,  Senior  Consultant, Neill  and Gunter
     (Nova Scotia) Ltd., Dartmouth,  Nova Scotia, Canada, December 8,  2002.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                              COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              USEPA (2001):  Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from  Developed Countries:
                  1990-2010,  US  Environmental  Protection  Agency,  EPA-430-R-01-007,
                  December 2001.

              World  Coal (2000): "Prospects for  UK Coal," World Coal, September 2000,
                  Volume 9, Number 9.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION MARKET
POTENTIAL: MEXICO

Background
USEPA had access  to relevant data for the  major gassy
mines in  Mexico, even though the country produces small
amounts  of coal.  Santillan-Gonzalez (2001) provided overall  coal production
information and ventilation system methane liberation data for 2000, obtained for
the five largest gassy underground coal mines in  Mexico,  which reflected  a VAM
emission  rate of 28.4 m3  per  tonne. In  addition, Santillan-Gonzalez (2001)  also
estimated 2000 coal production for one other gassy mine in the region.
                                                              Pacific
                                                              Ocean
                                                          Mexico 2000 Data Summary
                                                       UG Coal Production (MMT)       4.8
                                                       Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)     28.4
                                                       VAM Concentration (percent)      0.5*
                                                       Average Shaft Ventilation
                                                          Airflow (m3/sec.)           140*
                                                       VAM Emission:  MMTC026       1.9
                                                                   Bm3            0.1
                                                       Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)   N/A
                                                       "Average
Business Climate
Mexico's electricity sector is at a crossroads. Although
generation has increased rapidly over the past  decade,
supply is not expected to meet demand growth over the
next  two  decades.   Given  current  grid  capacity
constraints, shortages  could  result.  Failure to  make
substantial  investments  in  generation  capacity and
infrastructure  could adversely affect the international
competitiveness  of key northern  industrial   regions.
Although  about 95  percent of  Mexican  households
currently are electrified, there are still  many thousands
of rural  towns  without electricity.  It  is  reported that
consumption growth over the next five years will  be 45
percent.

Methodology
Santillan-Gonzalez (2001 and  2002) observed that the eight mines he represents
are the only underground coal mines in Mexico  likely to support VAM projects and
reported  VAM characterization and coal production for those mines for 2000 and
2002-2012. His data reveal a VAM concentration range  of 0.4-0.8 percent, with
an average of 0.5 percent, and a ventilation airflow range of from 91 m3 per second
to 197 m3 per  second, with an  average value  of 140  m3  per  second. USEPA
interpolated from the reported coal production data to obtain an estimate for  2001.
Because  production estimates were relatively  constant  for  2008-2012, USEPA
assumed  that the value  reported for 2012 (5.0 million tonnes) will be representative
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                             COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
     $0.16 i
     $0.00
        0.00
              0.20
                    0.40    0.60   0.80   1.00    1.20
                       Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                                 1.40
     Figure A-25. MAC Analysis for Mexico—Power Production
C02e at $0.048/kWh)
0)
c
c
O
c
O
ro
O)
i
c
ro
O

$2.40
$2.10
$1.80
$1.50
$1.20
$0.90
$0.60
$0.30
$0.00
0.


T
^^^*
	 B
^
S^^
s




00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
Methane Oxidized MMT (CO2e per year)
     Figure A-26. MAC Analysis for Mexico—Carbon Mitigation
of  the   period   2013-2020.
Santillan-Gonzalez's    projec-
tions indicate that coal produc-
tion at three of the eight mines
will  have been completed by
2008.  Thus,   the  other  five
mines  represent  prospects  for
long-term  VAM   projects   in
Mexico.  Combining the VAM
unit  emission  value  (28.4  m3
per tonne) with  the  projected
annual  coal   production  esti-
mates  provided  a  basis   for
projecting annual VAM emis-
sions from 2000 to  2020. Data
to quantify drained CMM avail-
able as  supplemental  fuel  for
VAM   oxidation   projects   in
Mexico were unavailable.

Uncertainties

   •   If available, annual coal
       production  projections
       for the   study   period
       could be  used with the
       data  quantifying meth-
       ane emissions per  unit
       of    coal   produced
       underground  provided
       by  Santillan-Gonzalez
       (2001)  to  refine  the
       annual  VAM  emission
       estimated.
              Market Potential
              With methane abatement costs at $3.00 per tonne of CO2e, VAM-derived power
              projects in Mexico, which emits less than  1 percent of the world's VAM, could
              theoretically create 27 MW of net useable capacity. If the equipment value for each
              project  were rounded to $10  million, the total  equipment market estimate  for
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                                                      A
                                      $3.50
                                      $3.00
                                      $2.50
                                    r $2.00
                                    o
                                    o
                                    c
                                    o
$1.50
                                    j? $1.00
Mexico would be $62  million.
Finally, the annual revenues that
could  accrue from  such power
sales   in   the  country   could
amount to over $11  million.

References
Santillan-Gonzalez  (2001):  E-
    mail  communication  with
    Mario   Alberto  Santillan-
    Gonzalez, Mining Engineer,
    Minerales Monclova  S.A.
    de C.V., Palau,  Coahuila,
    Mexico, July 19, 2001.
                                            Figure A-27. Opportunity Costs for Mexico
Santillan-Gonzalez  (2002):  E-
    mail communication with Mario Alberto Santillan-Gonzalez, Mining Engineer,
    Minerales Monclova S.A. de C.V., Palau, Coahuila, Mexico, September 21 and
    25, 2001.
                                    I
                                    re
                                    O
                                    Q.
$0.50
$0.00
                                      -$0.50
                                                                                0.50% CH4
                                          0.65% cm
                                                                                0.80% cm
                                          $0.01
          $0.02
$0.03   $0.04   $0.05   $0.06
   Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
$0.07   $0.08
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                           COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION  MARKET POTENTIAL:
GERMANY


Background
Current expectations anticipate a fairly stable demand for hard coal in
Germany over the next two decades (World Coal,  1999). However,
probable mine  closures will  result  in decreased underground coal
production. Although  10-12  collieries are expected still  to be operating  in the
country by 2005, annual  hard coal production will  have  fallen 40 percent below
1996  levels by that time.  In  Germany all  hard coal is produced from underground
mines, but at present none of those mines are employing bleeder shafts.

Radgen (2000  and  2002)  reports  that 61  percent  of methane  liberated  in
underground mining  in Germany  is released in  the ventilation system, while 39
percent is drained (69 percent of which is used and  31 percent of which is vented
to the atmosphere).  Recent government incentives for  environmentally sound,
alternative  power  production  (which includes  that produced from  coal  mine
methane) may result in  accelerated utilization  of CMM  available from drainage
systems as well as that in ventilation air (see below).
                                                         Germany 2000 Data Summary
                                                        UG Coal Production (MMT)
                                                        Unit VAM Release (rrWtonne)
                                                        VAM Concentration (percent)
                                                        Average Shaft Ventilation
                                                           Airflow (m3/sec.)
                                                        VAM Emission:
       MMT C02e
       Bm3
Business Climate

Germany is one of the world's largest energy consumers.
Because  it  has  limited indigenous  energy resources
(except for coal), Germany  is heavily import-reliant to
meet its energy needs.

The German government has announced plans to at least
double the contribution of renewable energy technologies
in  the country's overall electricity production technology
mix by 2010, raising it from its current level of 5 percent
to  10 percent (World Coal, 2000). As methane from coal
mines is included  in the mix of alternative fuels that are the focus of that transition,
more  aggressive  methane  drainage might  be  employed in  the coming  years.
Specifically,  in 2000, the government enacted legislation  designed to provide for
environmental  protection while increasing the country's energy supply reliability.
The act considers  coal mine methane to be a renewable resource  and provides for
                                                        Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)
                                                        "Average
 31.7
  2.8
  0.3*

N/A
  1.2
  0.09
 80
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
      $0.16
      $0.14
      $0.12
    g $0.10 -
      $0.08
    oi $0.06
      $0.04 -
      $0.02
      $0.00
                        0.40
                                0.60
                                       0.80
                       Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                                compensation  in the amount of
                                                0.0767  euros  (US$0.07)18  per
                                                kWh to be paid  for electricity
                                                from installations with  a gen-
                                                eration capacity of under 500
                                                kW using renewable  resources
                                                and  0.0665  euros  (US$0.06)
                                                per kWh  for  electricity  from
                                                such installations  with a capac-
                                                ity of  over  500  kW  (Radgen
                                                2002).

                                                Methodology
    Figure A-28. MAC Analysis for Germany—Power Production
  0
  o
      $3.50
      $3.00
      $2.50
      $2.00
      $1.50
      $1.00
      $0.50
      $0.00
     -$0.50
                                                 Underground  coal  production
                                                 data for 2000, 2001, 2005, and
2010 were  obtained from  World Coal (2000,  2001 a, and 2001 b)  and Radgen
(2001 a and  2002). Radgen (2001 b) also supplied a specific methane liberation rate
of 3-12  m3 per tonne of coal produced underground,  at an  average of 4-5 m3.
Adjusting that average by applying the  61  percent figure reported for  ventilation
system methane releases yielded an average VAM release rate of 2.75 m3 per tonne
of underground coal. In an earlier communication, Radgen (2000) noted that, by
law, ventilation air methane concentrations  must fall below 1 percent and reported
                                                 a  VAM concentration  range  of
                                                 0.08-0.8 percent, with an aver-
                                                 age value being approximately
                                                 0.3 percent.
        0.00     0.20     0.40      0.60     0.80
                      Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
                                             1.00
                                                     1.20
    Figure A-29. MAC Analysis for Germany—Carbon Mitigation
                                                 USEPA  interpolated  from the
                                                 underground coal  production
                                                 data points  to  estimate future
                                                 annual coal  production for the
                                                 2000-2010   period.   Specific
                                                 underground coal  production
                                                 data for  the post-2010 period
                                                 were  unavailable. World Coal
                                                 (1999) reports that a substantial
                                                 decrease in  production  is ex-
               1 Currency conversion based on November 2002 rates.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                                        Q
                                    $4.00
                                 _  $3.50
                                    $3.00
                                    $2.50
                                    $2.00
                                 15  $1.50 --
                                    $1.00
                                    $0.50
                                    $0.00
                                   -$0.50
                                       $0.01
$0.02
$0.03    $0.04   $0.05    $0.06
   Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
                                           Figure A-30. Opportunity Costs for Germany
pected to be evidenced by 2010
but that the German government
does  intend  to  maintain some
level  of production  for  energy
security   reasons.   Thus,  the
analysis assumed that the annual
production will  remain constant
at the  2010  level  from 2011
through  2020.  Combining  the
average  methane  release  rate
with  annual  underground coal
production estimates yielded an-
nual VAM release estimates for
the 20-year study period.

Data from Radgen (2002) quan-
tifying CMM degasification  and
utilization in Germany in 2000
revealed that 80 Mm3 of drained
CMM per year  is  vented to the atmosphere  and could be  available for  use  as
supplemental fuel for VAM oxidation projects.

Uncertainties

    •   An increase in the extent to which coal mine methane is captured and used
       from both active and abandoned mines may also result in a decrease in the
       volume of  methane  released to  the  ventilation  system per unit  of coal
       produced.

Market Potential
With  methane abatement costs at $3.00  per  tonne of CO2e,  VAM-derived power
projects in Germany, which emits less than 1 percent of the world's VAM, could
theoretically create 16 MW of net useable capacity. If the equipment value for each
project  were rounded to $10  million, the total equipment market estimate for
Germany  would be  over $63  million. Finally, the  annual  revenues  that could
accrue from such power sales in the country could amount to over $9 million.

References

Radgen (2000):  E-mail communication with  Dr. Peter Radgen, Project Manager,
    Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany, August 28, 2000.
                                                                               0.20% CH4
                                                                               0.23% CH4
                                                                               0.30% CK,
                                                                               0.40% CH4
                                                                               0.72% CH4
                                                                               0.80% CH4
$0.07
$0.08
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                   Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              Radgen (2001 a): E-mail  communication with Dr. Peter Radgen, Project Manager,
                  Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany, September 1, 2001.

              Radgen (2001 b): E-mail  communication with Dr. Peter Radgen, Project Manager,
                  Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany, December 31, 2001.

              Radgen (2002): E-mail communication with Dr.  Peter Radgen, Project Manager,
                  Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany, October 15, 2002.

              World Coal (1999): "Facing the  Future,"  World Coal, February 1999, Volume 8,
                  Number 2.

              World Coal (2000):  "Coal Industry and Energy Supply in Germany," World Coal,
                  October 2000, Volume 9, Number 10.

              World Coal (2001 a): "Outlook for German Coal," World Coal, September 2001,
                  Vol. 10, No. 9.

              World Coal  (2001 b):  "Life After  Coal: Regeneration or Decline?,"  World Coal,
                  September 2001,  Vol. 10, No. 10.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
VAM  OXIDATION  MARKET
POTENTIAL: CZECH  REPUBLIC


Background
The majority of coal produced in  the Czech  Republic is
lignite  produced from  surface  mines;  all  hard  coal
produced in the country is mined underground. Although once a major element of
the Czech Republic's economy, domestic coal production has declined due to  a
variety of environmental and economic factors. Transition from coal-fired to natural
gas-fired  electric generation, competition from cheaper imported coal, and similar
factors have driven that trend, which is expected to continue. As a result, projected
VAM  emissions also are expected to decline nationwide during the 2000-2020
study period.
                                                          Czech Republic 2000 Data
                                                                 Summary
                                                      UG Coal Production (MMT)       14.9
                                                      Unit VAM Release (m3/tonne)       3.9
                                                      VAM Concentration (percent)       0.3*
                                                      Average Shaft Ventilation
                                                         Airflow (m3/sec.)          221*
                                                      VAM Emission: MMTC02e       0.8
                                                                 Bm3            0.06
                                                      Drained CMM Available (Mm3/yr)   10
Business Climate
The  Czech  Republic  moved  into  positive  economic
growth in 2000 following three years of recession. Both
electricity generation and consumption generally have
been rising. The country is a net exporter of electricity.

Methodology
USEPA (1992) reported  that in  1990 in the Ostrava-
Karvina District,  which  produces  90  percent  of the    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^_
Czech  Republic's coal, 73 percent of methane  liberated from coal mining was
emitted to the atmosphere from underground coal mine ventilation systems. Gavor
(2002)  reported coal production  levels for 2000  and 2001  and also provided  a
production  projection  for 2020.  USEPA  extrapolated from  those data to obtain
production  estimates for the  intervening  years.  Mutmansky (2002) and USEPA
(1992)  note that the Czech Republic shares the Silesian coal basin with Poland and
conditions are virtually the same on  both sides of  the border. Thus, for this analysis
USEPA assumed  that  mining  methods and VAM characteristics (i.e., weighted
average VAM concentration of 0.259 percent and ventilation airflow of 221 m3 per
second) are similar to those in Poland as  well. The VAM specific emissions  value
obtained for Poland (i.e., 3.91  m3 per tonne of underground coal) was applied to
the underground  coal production projections to obtain VAM emission estimates for
the study period.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                                                            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Jli
                     Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Electricity Price ($/kWh at $0/tonne CO2e)
$0.24 -j






$0.08 -








^^-^^^
^^






0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
  Figure A-31. MAC Analysis for the Czech Republic—Power Production
NPV Carbon Mitigation Cost ($/tonne CO2e at $0.047/kWh)
ff)ff)ff)ff)ff)ff)ff)tf)
OO-^-^NJNJWW
ocnocnocnocn
oo o o o o o o o


^^
/^
B--




00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
Methane Oxidized (MMT CO2e per year)
  Figure A-32. MAC Analysis for the Czech Republic—Carbon Mitigation
Data   from   USEPA   (2001)
quantifying  CMM  degasifica-
tion   and  utilization  in  the
Czech Republic  in  2000  re-
vealed that over  10 Mm3  of
drained  CMM  per  year  is
vented to the  atmosphere and
could be available for  use  as
supplemental  fuel  for  VAM
oxidation projects.

Uncertainties

   •   The  extent  to  which
       the ventilation  system
       emissions  reported by
       USEPA  1992 for  the
       Ostrava-Karvina    Dis-
       trict reflect current  or
       future  VAM  emissions
       is not known.

Market Potential
As  was  done  for  Poland,  in
generating the MAC curves for
the  Czech  Republic,  where
mining  conditions are  similar
to those in Poland,  the total
annual volume of VAM emit-
ted by the country overall was
reduced  to reflect the fact that
data  in  USEPA (1995)  reveal
that the  mines in  Poland (and
by  extension   in  the  Czech
Republic which shares the Sil-
esian coal basin  with Poland)
                that are gassy enough to offer viable VAM oxidation opportunities equate with 65
                percent of all VAM  released there. With  methane  abatement costs  at $3.00 per
                tonne of CO2e,  VAM-derived power projects in the Czech  Republic, which emits
                less than 1  percent of the world's VAM, could theoretically  create 5 MW of net
  US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                                                   Q
useable capacity.  If the equip-
ment  value  for  each  project
were rounded  to  $10 million,
the total equipment market esti-
mate for  the  Czech  Republic
would be  $54 million.  Finally,
the annual revenues that could
accrue from such power sales in
the  country  could  amount  to
over $2 million.

References
Gavor (2002):  E-mail  communi-
     cation with Dr. Jiri  Gavor,
     Partner,  ENA  Ltd., Prague,
     Czech Republic,  November
     6, 2002.
  $4.00
o
> $0.50
a.
  $0.00
     $0.01    $0.02   $0.03   $0.04   $0.05   $0.06
                     Price of Electricity ($/kWh)
$0.07    $0.08
    Figure A-33. Opportunity Costs for the Czech Republic
Mutmansky (2002):  Personal dialog with  Professor  Emeritus  Jan  Mutmansky,
    Pennsylvania State University, January 17, 2002.

USEPA (1992): /Assessment of Potential for Economic Development and Utilization
    of Coalbed Methane in Czechoslovakia, US Environmental Protection Agency,
    Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-430-R-92-1008, October 1992.

USEPA (2001):  Non-CO2  Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Developed Countries:
    1990-2010,   US  Environmental   Protection  Agency,   EPA-430-R-01-007,
    December 2001.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                            COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                         APPENDIX B
                 SAMPLE CALCULATIONS
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                        COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Illustrative Bottom-up Annual VAM Emission Calculation: China
Given:

    •   VAM specific emission rate = 6.8 m3 methane/tonne coal

    •   2000 underground coal production = 949.05x106 tonnes

Then:

    •   6.8  m3 VAM/tonne coal x 949.05x106 tonnes  mined = 6.45 Bm3 or 92.29
       MMT CO2e
Illustrative Top-down Annual VAM Emission Calculation: United
Kingdom

Given:

    •   2000 overall coal mining methane emissions = 5.2 MMT CO2e

    •   In  1999  underground mines  accounted for  61  percent of overall  coal
       production

    •   70 percent of those emissions originated at ventilation fan drifts

Then:

    •   2000 overall coal mining methane emissions x 61% = 2000 emissions from
       underground mines:

              5.2 MMT CO2e x 0.61 =3.17 MMT CO2e

    •   2000 emissions from underground mines x 0.7 = 2000 VAM emissions:

              3.17 MMT CO2e x 0.7 = 2.2 MMT CO2e

Illustrative Non-US MAC Curve Development: China
Refer to the spreadsheet that follows the analytical steps described below in text to
find the results of each step.


US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                    Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane

              The method for creating a new VAM emissions distribution curve for each country
              used the data shown in Appendix A and proceeded as follows:19

                  1.  The  distribution  of  US  VAM  mitigated was  ranked and the  median
                     concentration was identified (0.39 percent).

                  2.  The cumulative distribution of annual US VAM flow (by concentration) was
                     converted to a percentage distribution.

                  3.  The mid-point of each country's concentrations was identified.

                  4.  The shape  of the VAM distribution curve that plots oxidized methane (in
                     tonnes of CO2e)  against  methane concentration  needs to  be created for
                     each country. This was accomplished by fitting (using interpolation) the top
                     half of the  US curve to each country's top range (i.e., the interval between
                     the median and  the highest  concentration). This involved calculating  a
                     decimal fraction (factor) representing each  increment in the US  tonnage-
                     concentration curve (e.g., a 0.1  percent increment between 0.9 and  0.8
                     percent) divided by the US mid-point-to-top interval. The  US distribution
                     has a span  of 0.61 percent from the median  of 0.39 percent to the highest
                     concentration grouping of 1.0 percent, and  each increment down to  0.4
                     percent represents about 0.164 of that range.  Steps 5 and 6 apply that factor
                     to  the  top  half  of each  country's range to  distribute  the  tonnage-
                     concentration points.

                  5.  The top of each country's concentration range and the difference between
                     that percentage  and  the  median selected in Step 3 were  identified.  For
                     example, the reported  range from  China's  high  of  0.75   percent to  its
                     "average" of 0.46 percent spans an interval of 0.3 percent.

                  6.  A new concentration range (above the median only) was constructed using
                     the factors  developed in  Step 4  and the range identified in  Step 5. For the
                     Chinese case, the factor  of 0.164 multiplied by 0.3 percent—about 0.05
                     percent—becomes   the   concentration   interval  associated  with  each
                     increment of the US tonnage distribution (see  Step 8).

                  7.  To distribute the bottom half of the curve from  the mid-point to the lower
                     end of a country's range, Steps 4, 5, and 6 were repeated.
              19 A separate calculation was necessary for concentrations above and below the median  because
              reported patterns of mid-points and ranges are not consistent with each other or with the US pattern.

US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                  COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
    8.  The new concentration range was matched with the NPV cost per tonne of
       CO2e by interpolating the US concentration/cost relationships.

    9.  The new concentration range for  each country was matched to the US
       distribution, as converted to percentages in Step 1.

    10. That  new concentration percentage  distribution   was  multiplied by the
       tonnes of VAM (expressed as tonnes of CO2e) that are emitted by  each
       country.

    11. The two series resulting from Steps 8 and 10 become the bases for  each
       country's MAC curves.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                   COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                       Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
CHINA MAC Curve: Calculation Steps
       Step3
Mid point concentration = 0.45%
       Step 5       »
       Step 4

VAM
cone %
group
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.388
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.10


US
factor

0.163
0.163
0.163
0.163
0.163
0.163
0.020
0.306
0.174
0.174
0.347


Values
cumulative
CO2
% of total
4.48%
8.36%
9.94%
14.48%
19.87%
34.76%
45.74%
50.00%
71.33%
84.86%
98.02%
100.00%
AA
step 2

cost
NPV
$/t CO2
$0.73
$0.93
$1.13
$1.33
$1.52
$1.72
$2.19
$2.25
$2.66
$2.89
$3.13



China Values
VAM
cone %
group
0.750
0.701
0.652
0.603
0.554
0.505
0.456
0.450
0.313
0.234
0.156
0.000
AA
steps 6&7
approx approx
distribut'n distribute
CO2% CO2mmt/y
4.48%
8.36%
9.94%
14.48%
19.87%
34.76%
45.74%
50.00%
71.33%
84.86%
4.30
8.03
9.55
13.90
19.08
33.37
43.92
48.01
68.49
81.48
98.02% 94.12
100.00% 96.02
AA AA
step 9 step 10
adj
NPV cost
$/t CO2
$1.23
$1.33
$1.42
$1.52
$1.62
$1.73
$1.93
$1.957
$2.60
$2.96


AA
step 8
electric
price
$/kWh
$0.07
$0.07
$0.07
$0.07
$0.08
$0.08
$0.09
$0.09
$0.12
$0.14




US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                      APPENDIX C
                BASIS FOR POWER PRICE
                USED  IN THE ANALYSES
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                      COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                        COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                                                                                          pt
Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane                  ;
Selection of a Realistic Power Price
A VAM project with electricity-generation capability will need  a  substantial and
predictable revenue stream from  power sales to be credible with potential sources
of financial support. USEPA estimated that a contract covering the anticipated plant
output for  five  to seven years would be sufficient to satisfy the debt suppliers (i.e.,
repay their investment), since short contracts and spot pricing thereafter will likely
pose  little  downside risk.  Moreover, the outstanding principal  on major  project
loans should be insignificant  by that time, or secured by another asset, or both. The
following discussion addresses  the issues involved in predicting what prices might
be available to a VAM  project in the  US for the purposes of executing a MAC
analysis.

In the attempt to gather realistic cost estimates for this evaluation, USEPA posed the
following two  scenarios  for  consideration  by persons active  in the electric utility
industry:

1.  Export  the  power to the grid (either directly to the  local utility or indirectly
    through a third party), or

2.  Self-generate  electricity so  that the mine would save  on  power purchases and
    pass the savings along to the project entity.

Selecting a power price  for the US analysis was a challenge because  events that
affect supply and demand  in the electricity supply business are changing  rapidly
and are causing different effects in different areas  of the country.

In view of the  findings from  this  preliminary research effort for both  exported and
self-generated  power,  USEPA  decided to assume an  arbitrary  average price  of
$0.03  per  kWh  for US projects.  The  $0.03  price reflects anecdotal  reports  of
current pricing  in the deep coal-mining regions of the US Rockies and Appalachia.

Non-US Power Prices
Where  possible  USEPA obtained estimates  of representative  industrial  power
pricing  for other countries through direct contact with  in-country  coal industry
experts. For  countries where estimates were unavailable through direct contact,
USEPA used power price data published by the International Energy Agency.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                   COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                 Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
              Power Price Summary

              The following table lists the country-specific electric power prices employed in this
              analysis, and  identifies the sources from which those prices were obtained.
Country
Australia
China
Czech Republic
Germany
India
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Poland
Russia
South Africa
United Kingdom
Ukraine
United States
Rate
(US$ per kWh)
0.02
0.035
0.0468
0.065
0.07
0.018
0.0475
0.0476
0.044
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.03
Source
Shi Su, CSIRO Exploration and Mining,
Kenmore, Queensland, Australia
Liu Wenge, Project Manager, China
Coalbed Methane Clearinghouse, Beijing,
China
International Energy Agency, World
Electric Prices, IEA2002
Dr. Peter Radgen, Project Manager,
Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany
Umesh Prasad Singh, Deputy Chief
Engineer, Coal India, Ltd., Calcutta, India
International Energy Agency, World
Electric Prices, IEA2002
International Energy Agency, World
Electric Prices, IEA2002
International Energy Agency, World
Electric Prices, IEA2002
International Energy Agency, World
Electric Prices, IEA2002
P.J.D. Lloyd, Energy Research Institute,
University of Cape Town, South Africa
Phillip O'Quigley, Energy Finance
Limited, Dublin, Ireland
Alexander Filippov, Programs
Coordinator, Partnership for Energy and
Environmental Reform, Kiev, Ukraine
Richard Winschel, CONSOL Energy,
South Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Patrick
Reinks, Ingersoll-Rand Company - Energy
Systems, Davidson, North Carolina, USA
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                    APPENDIX D
       TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPER/VENDOR
             CONTACT INFORMATION
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                   COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
Thermal Oxidizer
MEGTEC Systems
830 Prosper Road
P.O. Box 5030
De Pere, Wisconsin 54115-5030
United States
   Contact:
   Kenneth P. Zak
   Director, Marketing and Business
   Development
   Phone:     (920) 339-2797
   Fax:       (920) 339-2784
   E-mail:     kzak@megtec.com


Catalytic Oxidizer
Neill and Gunter (Nova Scotia) Ltd.
130 Eileen Stubbs Avenue
Suite 1 South
Dartmouth, NSB3B2C4, Canada
   Contact:
   Brian King
   Senior Consultant
   Phone:   (902)434-7331
   Fax:     (902)462-1660
   E-mail:   bking@ngns.com


Lean-Fuel Microturbine
Ingersol-Rand Energy Systems
800-D Beaty Street
Davidson,  North Carolina 28036
United States
   Contact:
   Patrick Rienks
   Market Development Manager
   Phone:   (704) 896-4358
   Fax:     (704) 896-4372
   E-mail:   patrick_rienks@irco.com
Concentrator
Environmental C & C, Inc.
898 Route 146
Clifton Park, New York 12065
United States
   Contact:
   Hal Cowles
   Phone:  (518)373-0005
   Fax:     (518)373-0006
   E-mail:  hal@ecnc.com


Lean-Fuel Catalytic Turbine;
VAM/Coal Co-Firing
CSIRQ Australia
P.O.  Box 883
Kenmore, Queensland, Australia
4069
   Contact:
   Dr. Michael Wendt
   Phone:  61-7-33274679
   Fax:     61-7-3274455
   E-mail:  michael.wendt@csiro.au


Catalytic Microturbine
FlexEnergy
22922 Tiagua
Mission Viejo, CA 92692-1433
United States
   Contact:
   Edan Prabhu, President
   Phone:  (949) 380-4899
   Fax:     (949) 380-8407
   E-mail:  edanprabhu@cox.net
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                    COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                  Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane


             Carbureted Gas Turbine
             Energy Developments Ltd. (EDL)
             Australia Operations
             Northhampton Dale Road
             P.O. Box 83
             Appin, New South Wales, Australia 2560
             US Operations
             7700 San Felipe Road
             Suite 480
             Houston, Texas 77063
             United States
                Contact:
                Tom Chapman
                E-mail:   Tom.Chapman@edl.com.au
                Australia
                Phone:   61-2-4631-6200
                Fax:     61-2-4631-1324
                United States
                Phone:   (713)781-5353
                Fax:     (713)781-5303
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                 COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                       APPENDIX E
          CMOP CONTACT INFORMATION
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                      COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                      Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                       COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
                          C    O    A
                          METHANE
                          OUTREACH
                           P   R   O   0    R   A   M
          For more information about the Coalbed Methane Outreach Program, contact:

                                       Clark Talkington
                                     Phone: 202-564-8969
                                      Fax: 202-565-2134
                                E-mail: talkington.clark@epa.gov

                    Or visit the Program's web site at www.epa.gov/coalbed.
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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                       Assessment of the Worldwide Market Potential for Oxidizing Coal Mine Ventilation Air Methane
US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY                                        COALBED METHANE OUTREACH PROGRAM

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United States
Environmental Protection Agency
(6202-J)
Washington,  DC 20460

Official Business
Penalty for Private Use
$300
           www.epa.gov/coalbed

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