United States Environmental Protection Agency Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park NC 27711 Research and Development EPA/600/S9-87'024 Jan. 1988 Project Summary Workshop on Evaluation/ Documentation of Chemical Mechanisms Roger Atkinson, Harvey Jeffries, Gary Whitten and Fred Lurmann Atmospheric photochemists and developers and users of air quality models need to discuss the evaluation and documentation of chemical mechanisms used in air quality simulation models. A workshop, therefore, was organized and conducted on December 1-3, 1986 by EPA to discuss the latest evidence and viewpoints on the subject and to solicit from experts recommendations on optimum approaches to mechanistic model evaluation, documentation, and further development. Previous practices and underlying issues in the subject areas were reviewed and discussed in background documents prepared and distributed in advance of the workshop. Participants agreed that smog chamber data provide the most unambiguous test of urban atmospheric photochemistry mechanisms. They also agreed, however, that there are uncertainties associated with the representation of chamber radical sources and of photolytic rates in outdoor chambers, with smog chamber measurement errors, and with the representation of as yet unknown reaction pathways. The participants recommended that task forces and/or review groups be established to discuss and resolve existing smog chamber methodology issues, to assemble a required smog chamber data base for mechanism testing, and to review/evaluate relevant kinetic and smog chamber data and mechanism testing results. Recommendations were also developed on future research needs and on mechanism documentation procedures. This Project Summary was developed by EPA's Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC, to announce key findings of the research project that is fully documented in a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering information at back). Introduction The EPA conducted this workshop to discuss the evaluation and documentation of chemical mechanisms used in air quality simulation models. (A chemical mechanism is the set of chemical reactions and associated rate constants which describes the transformation of emitted chemicals into intermediate and final products. In the context of this workshop, the initially emitted chemicals are hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen, and ozone is the product species of major interest.) Goals of this workshop were: to assess present practice in photochemical reaction mechanism development and testing for those mechanisms intended for use in urban air quality control calculations; to determine if there might be a commonly agreed upon mechanism evaluation procedure; and to determine if there might be a standard data base that would be useful in distinguishing among different mechanisms. ------- A review of previous practice and a discussion of the underlying issues was presented in background documents "The Science of Photochemical Reaction Mechanism Development and Evaluation" by Jeffries and Arnold and "Need for Chemical Mechanism Documentation" by Sexton and Jeffries, which were distributed to workshop participants prior to the meeting. Four scientists and an EPA user of models were asked to respond to the background documents and to offer their viewpoints on evaluation procedures and testing data bases. These were Kenneth Demerjian, Roger Atkinson, Michael Gery, Allan Dunker, and Joseph Tikvart. These four scientists were in agreement that there is, and has been, a generally accepted procedure for testing the extent of "reasonable agreement" between model predictions and experimental measurements. This procedure involves the use of laboratory kinetic, mechanistic, and product data, the use of smog chamber data, and the use of other test data, such as captive air irradiation measurements and ambient air measurements. Many participants believed, however, that the latter type of comparisons (e.g. model predictions compared to ambient measurements and, for some, even captive air studies) require so many approximations and suffer from such instrumental limitations that the extent of agreement expected would be quite limited and thus such efforts would not be clear tests of our understanding of the chemical transformation processes. All four scientists agreed that, although there certainly were problems with their data, environmental or smog chambers still provided the most unambiguous data for the testing of urban chemical transformation mechanisms. Subsequent discussion confirmed that this approach or method was generally the accepted approach used by the workshop attendees. The EPA model user (J. Tikvart) strongly supported the draft proposal for mechanism documentation. Other workshop attendees, including William Carter, Fred Lurmann, Gary Whitten, and Gregory McRae described their current practice and recent model testing strategies and results. While various mechanisms have been developed and tested against limited numbers of smog chamber experiments, only two mechanisms, the SAPRC/ERT mechanism and the latest Carbon Bond Mechanism, have been tested against a large number of chamber experiments (ca. 500) from different chambers. The Steering Committee concluded that, without further work, it was not possible to choose one of these mechanisms over the other on the basis of scientific evidence, and that the EPA should be encouraged to use both mechanisms as a method to estimate the present uncertainties in control requirement predictions. The Steering Committee also concluded that several review groups should be assembled to review the kinetic and chamber data bases and to review the extent of agreement among the models and these data bases. These recommendations will be described below. It is clear from the data presented at this workshop, together with work published over the past five years, that a vast amount of progress has been made during the past decade, both with respect to urban-area chemical mechanism development and the data base upon which these mechanisms are based and tested. Nevertheless, additional development is clearly needed. Recommendations for future chemical mechanism development, documentation, and testing intended to extend the present urban oxidant-only mechanisms to the new areas that will confront EPA in the coming years are also given below. Guidelines for Mechanism Development and Testing Demerjian described what most workshop participants accepted as a general approach to mechanism development and testing. The major components of this approach are shown in Figure 1. Within this generally accepted approach, however, there are differences in the practice among different modeling groups. With respect to mechanism evaluation, there was general agreement that: mechanism testing should be performed according to a "hierarchy of species," data from at least two, and preferably more, chambers should be used in the testing, testing should include at least two phases: -testing and refining the representations of chamber- dependent phenomena, and -testing and refining for comple,. organic species and mixtures of species, and as much data as is available should used m the testing, and at a minimum. 15 experiments should be used in the first phase and 50 experiments in the second phase for each chamber. Detailed Chemical Mechanism I \ i. r Condensed Chemical Mechanism _-- '""^ i i k r Testing against Amb/ent Air Data for Consistency Figure 1. Schematic Method for Development and Eval- uation of Chemical Mechanisms. After Ken neth Demerjian. Workshop discussions indicated further that assessing goodness-to-fit between the experimental data and the model predictions is a topic that requires further work and one for which the Steering Committee recommends the creation of a Task Group. One approach to showing the"goodness-to-fit," the developers of the SAPRC/ERT mechanism used simple statistical measures to describe the goodness- to-fit for their model As an example of another approach, the developers of the Carbon Bond Four mechanism used several hundred plots of model predictions-vs-smog chamber observations to illustrate the adequacy of their fit. Their reports also generally contain one or two tables giving the maximum 03 and time to maximum for the model predictions and the observed values, but no scatter plots or error distribution plots are given. So- members of the Steering Committee . that both of these approaches to showing "goodness-to-fit" are incomplete. ------- The detailed chemical mechanism, developed and evaluated as discussed above, must be condensed (see Figure 1) for use in air quality simulation models - control strategy assessment purposes. Procedures for condensing mechanisms and testing the condensed mechanism against simulations of the expanded or explicit mechanisms were discussed in three reports: Whitten, Johnson, and Killus ("Development of a Chemical Kinetic Mechanism for the U.S. EPA Regional Oxidant Model," EPA- 600/3-85-026, 1985); Whitten and Gery ("Development of CBM-X Mechanisms for Urban and Regional AQSMs," EPA-600/3-86-012, 1986), and Lurmann, Carter, and Coyner ("A Surrogate Species Chemical Mechanism for Urban-Scale Air Quality Simulation Models, Adaptation of the Mechanism," EPA-600/3-86-031, 1986). Specific methods for mechanism condensation include eliminations of species that are unreactive or do not change in concentration during the reactions and thus should not change the numerical results of simulations using the intermediate condensed mechanism «hen compared to the detailed echanism. Other steps include the use ~'6f fractional stoichiometric coefficients and intermediate species which have unimolecular branched pathways of reaction. As long as the unimolecular ;cay lifetimes are reasonably short, the **"rTumerical simulation results will not be significantly affected. Tests are required for lifetimes longer than a few minutes. Other techniques include the use of a "mass balance" or "counter species" which are given arbitrarily high decay rates to form"intentional" steady- state-like species. Condensation steps beyond those above involve assumptions about typical atmospheric situations, and the condensed versions of the mechanism must be tested to determine the bounds of such assumptions. Techniques have been developed to identify unimportant reactions and species. Elimination of unimportant reactions provides little benefit to simulation costs, because the costs are most sensitive to the number of species. Of course, fewer reactions do make a mechanism easier to understand. In regards to mechanism documentation, it was stressed by the Steering Committee that clear and omprehensive documentation of Chemical mechanisms by their developers is needed to ensure their proper use. In his presentation, Joseph Tikvart reviewed and strongly supported the approach proposed in the workshop background document "Need for Chemical Mechanism Documentation," by Sexton and Jeffries. In this document an example outline of a guidance document for the application of chemical mechanisms was proposed. Computed solutions to mechanism test problems are essential to proper implementation of chemical mechanisms by nondeveloper users. The Steering Committee believes that a minimum of four test problems are needed. These initial test problems should not involve dilution, entrainment, emissions injection, or deposition, but rather be examples of the pure chemical kinetics. Ideally, the solutions should be computed using a high quality algorithm such as the Gear algorithm with tight error control. In these test cases, the algorithm used, the method of computing the Jocobian, the use of absolute or relative error tolerances, and the minimum, initial, and maximum integrator step sizes should be documented. All species should be integrated rather than determined from the steady-state assumptions. Another documentation item discussed by the Steering Committee was the need for a standard set of conditions for comparing mechanism prediction of VOC control requirements when using the OZIPM program. It was suggested that the regulatory groups in EPA should be involved in developing these test cases to insure that they cover typical cases of interest for regulatory purposes. Differences Among Well- Tested Mechanisms When the guidelines given here for chemical mechanism development are followed by multiple research groups, it is expected that large sections of the mechanisms developed will be very similar, if not identical. The portions of the detailed chemical mechanism, however, which are either unknown or only poorly understood will have to be assembled using estimations or arguments by analogy, or perhaps simply be parameterized. Thus, different methods of representing these unknown or poorly known sections of the chemistry will arise in different mechanism developments. The latter process will most likely lead to detailed (and subsequently condensed) overall mechanisms which, based on past experience, may differ in their control strategy predictions, despite the fact that each chemical mechanism may be consistent within the bounds of reasonable agreement with the elementary reaction kinetics, mechanisms, and products data bases and with environmental chamber data. Other than further efforts to refine the measure of uncertainty in both the kinetics and chamber data and new formulations and testing of the mechanisms, there may well be no scientific reason to accept or reject one of these chemical mechanisms over the other. Given that EPA must proceed with applications of the mechanisms, it is recommended that the EPA not select only a single mechanism for making control strategy predictions. Task or Review Groups Needed The workshop participants recommended that several interacting sets of review processes or review groups be established, each with a goal of assessing and documenting the state of knowledge and degree of reasonable agreement to be expected in a given domain. At least four different domains were identified for such activities: 1) kinetic and mechanistic data needed in constructing photochemical transformation mechanisms; 2) environmental chamber data needed for comparison with mechanism predictions; 3) mechanism intercomparisons tests; and 4) user or application tests. Short-Term Recommendations The Steering Committee believes that it may be possible to further refine existing mechanisms on a short-time scale and without the need for any new experimental data. While this advancement needs no new experimental data, recommendations for further well-defined research may result from this effort. The first priority is to use the presently available environmental chamber data base to refine the testing of present chemical mechanisms. The Steering Committee therefore recommends the establishment of a task force of non- EPA scientists to evaluate and resolve chamber effects and light intensity/spectral distribution issues. One of the goals of this workshop was to identify a standard data base that ------- would be useful in distinguishing among different mechanisms. The Steering Committee concluded that it was possible to assemble a "necessary" environmental chamber data set, that is, one containing chamber experiments which all mechanisms for use in urban areas would have to simulate. The data base is described as "necessary" because if a mechanism could not simulate these experiments, it mostly likely would be considered unsatisfactory for EPA applications, but the data base would not be "sufficient" to resolve all questions associated with oxidant prediction. The Steering Committee recognized that to assemble such a data base would require significant input from chamber operators at both UNC and UCR and from model developers at SAI and UCR, as well as other interested parties who might wish to use the data. It is envisioned that the data base would contain about 100 experiments from several chambers. Each experiment would contain detailed recommendations and supporting information on photolytic rates, chamber wall processes, and initial and temporal conditions. These would be the result of review, discussion, and consensus among task force members. Longer-Term Recommendations Establishment of Review Group for Evaluation of Fundamental Kinetic and Mechanistic Data for Use in Model Development Establishment of Review Group for Evaluation of Environmental Chamber Data Establishment of Review Group for Mechanism Intercomparison Establishment of Review Group for Mechanism Predictions in Applications Obtain Additional Data on Atmospheric Chemistry of Organics. Specifically obtain data (a) on absorption cross-section and photodissociation quantum yields and product data for the carbonyl compounds formed as intermediate products in the degradation schemes or organics, (b) to determine the fates of HO-aromatic adducts under atmospheric conditions, (c) to determine the reactions of the >Ce alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals under atmospheric conditions and the subsequent reactions of their products, and (d) to determine the radicals formed, and their yields, from ozone-alkene reactions under atmospheric conditions. Obtain additional Environmental Chamber Data of higher quality and also for the purposes of (a) discriminating between present approaches to representing chamber effects, and (b) testing of acid deposition and regional and tropospheric models. Conduct New Studies of Chamber- Dependent Effects Investigate the Applicability of the present EKiVIA Method ------- Roger Atkinson is with the University of California, Riverside, CA 92521; Harvey J Jeffries is with the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27514; Gary Whitten is with Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael, CA 94903; and Fred Lurmann is with Environmental Research and Technology, Inc., Newbury Park, CA 91320. Basil Dimitriades is the EPA Project Officer (see below). The complete report, entitled "Workshop on Evaluation/Documentation of Chemical Mechanisms," (Order No. PB 88-134 358/AS; Cost: $32.95, subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA22161 Telephone: 703-487-4650 The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at: Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 United States Environmental Protection Agency Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati OH 45268 BULK RATE POSTAGE & FEES PAID EPA PERMIT No. G-35 Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 EPA/600/S9-87/024 ------- |