Impacts of Energy Conservation Measures Applied to Commuter Travel

          IMPACTS    OF    ENERGY

       CONSERVATION    MEASURES

APPLIED    TO    COMMUTER    TRAVEL
                       PREPARED FOR
           U.S.  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
             OFFICE OF PLANNING AND EVALUATION
                     WASHINGTON, D,C,
                         MAY 1975

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MATHEMATICA
INC.
REGIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES GROUP
An Equal Opportunity Employer, M/F

May 1975
IK
0
to
IMPACTS OF ENERGY
CONSERVATION MEASURES
APPLIED TO COMMUTER TRAVEL
by
John R. Sharko
and
Jeffrey P. Price ,
Regional and Environmental Studies Group
MATHEMATICA, Inc.
3401 Market Street
Philadelphia, Pa. 19104
Contract #68-01-2831
Project Officer
Ms. Margaret Tifft
Office of -Planning and Evaluation
Prepared for
Office of Planning and Evaluation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C.
3401 MARKET ST., PHILADELPHIA, PA. 19104 • TELEPHONE 215-387-7332 or 215-387-7090

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This report  has been reviewed by the Office of
Policy Planning, EPA, and approved for pub-
lication.  Approval does not signify that  the
contents necessarily reflect the views and
policies of  the Environmental Protection
Agency, nor  does mention of trade names or
commercial products constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.
                          U.S. Environ-rentaI Protection Agency
                          Library, Room 2*04  PM-211-A
                          401 M Street, S.W.
                          Washington,  DC   20460

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:  u '  ,

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                    ABSTRACT
    A number of energy conservation measures
applied to urban commuter travel are assessed.
These include express lanes, subsidization of
mass transit, parking management and revised
work hours.  Constraints on these measures are
identified and the energy, air quality, economic
and social impacts are evaluated.
                        11

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                   TABLE OF CONTENTS
   I.  INTRODUCTION
  IV.   IMPACT ANALYSIS
   V.  EXPRESS LANES
  VI.  SUBSIDIZATION OP MASS TRANSIT
 VII.  REVISED WORK HOURS
VIII.  PARKING MANAGEMENT
   1-1
  II.  SUMMARY OF RESULTS AND MAJOR FINDINGS     II-l



 III.  BASELINE TRAVEL AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION   III-l

       DATA
  IV-1


   V-l


  VI-1

 .  .
 vii-i


VIII-l
        APPENDIX A - BIBLIOGRAPHY
                         111

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                 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

    This report was prepared by MATHEMATICA, Inc.,
for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under
Contract No. 68-01-2831.  It assesses constraints
and the energy consumption, air quality, economic
and social impacts of parking management, express
lanes, subsidization of mass transit and revised
work hours.  This report is one of several prepared
by MATHEMATICA, Inc., for the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency in the field of Transportation
Energy Conservation under this contract.

    The MATHEMATICA effort was performed by John
R. Sharko.and Jeffrey P. Price under the overall
direction of Dilip R. Limaye.  Significant
contributions were also made by Ms. Margaret
Tifft of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
    This report was submitted in fulfillment of
Contract'No. 68-01-2831 by MATHEMATICA, Inc.,
Regional and Environmental Studies Group, under
the sponsorship of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency.  Work was completed as of .
March 31,  1975.

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                         I.   INTRODUCTION
.A.   BACKGROUND
     Energy  consumed  for  transportation  is  a  significant portion
of  the  total  amount  of energy  consumed  in  the United  States,
approximately 25%  in 1972.   The  importance  of the energy con-
sumed by  the  transportation  sector  is compounded by the fact
that, except  for a small amount of  electricity, all the energy
consumed  takes the form  of crude  oil products, primarily gaso-
line.   This means  that the energy consumed for transportation
can  have  a  significant impact  on  the U.S.'s  balance of trade
and  foreign policy.
     A wide  range of  energy conservation measures have been
considered  for the transportation sector.  One important con-
straint on  the acceptibility of such measures has been the
extent  to which they might reduce travel.  Since our economy
depends on  transportation, any decrease in that travel could
have significant negative impacts on the economy.  This effect
was  underscored during the oil embargo  by  the concern for the
smooth  operation of  the  U.S. economy.   As  a  result of the
concern for the maintenance  of existing levels of travel, the
energy  conservation  measures that have  been  employed to date
have not  reduced travel  to a great degree.   Two of the most
important examples of such measures are the  55 MPH speed limit
and  smaller, more  efficient  automobiles.
     One type of travel that  does  not tend  to be reduced in response
to a wide range of conservation measures is  commuter travel.  Most
people  who  now work  will continue to work  if energy conservation
measures are implemented which make travel less convenient or
more expensive.  Although the  location of  employment may change, the

^•MATHEMATICA Energy  Data Base.
                              1-1

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total number of employees, and therefore the total number of
commuter trips will not change very much.
    For this reason, the impacts of several energy conservation
measures on commuter travel were analyzed.  An additional
reason for considering .commuter travel is that it accounts for
a significant portion of the gasoline consumed in the United
States.  Of the 2.1 billion barrels of gasoline consumed in
1970, .3 billion barrels, or 13% of the total gasoline con-
sumption, was accounted for by commuter travel.
    Since the energy conservation measures considered in this
report deal with the increased use of mass transit and carpools,
it is important to consider that portion of the total commuter
travel that is most likely to adopt such shifts.  The portion of
the commuters most likely to adopt these measures are those who
live in densely populated areas and work in urbanized central
business districts.  A convenient means of segregating this
portion of the commuters is to consider those people who live
in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs).  Since SMSAs
are constructed around urbanized central business districts, a
good portion of thepopulation tends to work in centralized
business districts.  Considering only the working population
within SMSAs is of value also because it includes a significant
portion of the total number of workers, 64%.
B.  OBJECTIVES
    The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the
feasibility, effectiveness and impacts of the following
classes of energy conservation measures as applied to commuter
travel in SMSAs:
        parking management plans (reduced parking,
        increased parking fees, special parking
        for carpoolers, and fringe parking)
        'i

•''U.S. Statistical Abstracts, 1974.
                               1-2

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    -  . express lanes for buses and carpools
    -   mass transit subsidies
        revised work weeks  (4-day work week, staggered
        work hours, flexible work hours)
    The most promising combination of these measures were*
also to be evaluated.  These consisted primarily of coordinating
the parking management plans with the incentives to mass transit
and carpools to arrive at efficient, acceptable transportation
policies.  The ability of parking management plans to enhance
the energy savings potentials of the revised work .weeks was
the other basic type of strategy to be evaluated.
    The following impacts were to be evaluated:
        traffic patterns for 1977, 1980, 1985 and 1990
        national energy savings potential for 1977,
        1980, 1985 and 1990
    -   the direct air quality impacts
    -   the economic benefits and costs
    -   the public acceptance factors
    -   the social and political constraints
    -   institutional constraints
    .The energy, environmental and economic impacts were to be
quantified for the maximum feasible levels of implementation
and likely maximum levels of implementation were to be estimated.
The former estimates put the impacts of each measure in perspective
independent of the extent to which the policies are implemented
and the latter estimates are useful in evaluating the imple-
mentation constraints on each measure.
C.  APPROACH                                                     ' "
    The analysis was conducted in three major phases:
    -   development of baseline projections of commuter
        travel, energy consumption,  pollutant emissions.
                             1-3

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        and economic factors such as new car sales
        and transportation costs.
    -   a qualitative evaluation of the impacts and
        constraints on the various energy conser-
        vation measures.
        a quantitative evaluation of the impacts              '
        resulting from maximum feasible levels of
        implementation and most likely feasible
        levels of implementation:.
    The baseline projections of energy consumption, emissions
and economic factors were based on projections of travel
patterns made for the Project Independence Blueprint.   The
total amount of commuter travel was divided amongst automobile,
buses, and rail transit based on estimates from the 1970 .
Nationwide Personal Transportation Study.  Data on the number
of person trips utilizing each mode was multiplied by the
average distance of the trips to arrive at total passenger
miles.  Since the energy consumed by automobiles is a direct
function of the automobile vehicle miles and not passenger
miles traveled, estimates of average occupancy were applied
to automobile passenger miles to arrive at vehicle miles.
The energy consumed by each travel mode was estimated by
multiplying the amount of travel by the energy consumption
rates.  In the case of mass transit, the energy consumption
rates were expressed in terms of passenger miles while for
automobiles it was expressed in terms of vehicle miles.
    Projections of mobile source emissions of hydrocarbons,
nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide were calculated by
multiplying average emission rates by vehicle miles.  The
automobile emission rates in any year were calculated as
the average of the emission rates of all cars in use in that
year.  The emission rates of older cars were increased
                             1-4

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according to standard EPA estimates to reflect the fact that
emission rates of cars increase as they get older.
    Simultaneously with the construction of the baseline
projections, a qualitative assessment of each measure was
conducted.  This included the energy, economic, and environ-
mental impacts of each measure and the social, institutional,
                                     i
and political constraints on implementation.  This was
accomplished by investigating current individual applications
of each policy.  This information was used to evaluate the
potential impacts of each measure on a broad national scale.
Desirable  combinations  of policies, or strategies, were
identified for further evaluation.
    The last phase of the analysis consisted of conducting a
quantitative impact analysis of each policy.  This was con-
ducted as shown in Figure 1-1.  The economic impacts included
impacts on automobile and mass transit traveling expenses,
new car purchases, gasoline taxes, and balance of payments.
                               1-5

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                              FIGURE 1-1
             EVALUATION OF COMMUTER VMT REDUCTION MEASURES
j Average occupancy
< Average distance of trips
1 Number of trips          |
Automobile
Mass transit < Number of trips
             | Average distance *•
               Automobile miles per gallon
               Bus & Rail energy consumption.
                  per passenger mile
               Automobile capital &
                   operating costs
               Rail & bus capital &
                   operating costs
               Gasoline tax rates
Calculate
baseline auto-
mobile miles
traveled
                                       Calculate base-
                                       line, bus & rail
                                       passenger miles
                                       Calculate
                                       energy
                                       consumption .
                                       Calculate
                                       economic
                                       factors
                                                         I
               Emission rates
               Emissions from stationary.
                   sources
                                       Calculate air
                                       quality
                                       improvement s

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          II.  SUMMARY OF RESULTS & MAJOR FINDINGS
A.  SUMMARY OF RESULTS
    The results of the qualitative impact and constraint
analysis are summarized in Figure II-l.  It gives for each
policy the important implementation considerations' and the
relative importance of each.
    Applying these considerations to estimates of national
potential impacts, the maximum potential energy savings resulting
from the independent application of each measure was cal-
culated, Figure II-2. The air quality and economic impacts
are summarized in Figure II-3 for 1980.
                              II-l

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I
FIGURE II-l
SUMMARY OF THE IMPACTS
OF TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICIES
POLICY
I. Parking Manaquncnt
a) crt?j:ied use of
ajsu transit c
2. Incrvatied speed off
traffic
3. fos«ibl« increases
in travel distance
fi tlstos due to
inconvenient Bias*
transit connection!

Sean as above
t

$a*e as above* except
diverted automobile
?oe* to waas transit
as opposed to ear pooli
Saae as above except
diverted automobile
traffic ?oes to car

1* Increased us* of
buses ft car pools
2. Increased speed of
traffic
1, Possible increases
in travel dlstana

mass transit
3. Increased speed of
traffic
1. Decrease of 20*
Cor those on
program

1. Increased speed
off traffic
a. Decreased poten-
tial for car
pools
3. Decreased use of
etass transit due
to increased
•peed of
traffic

i. Xncn;.i*rd SF"«J of
traffic
2« OecrcJt«»H u.-ws of
•OSA transit

EN£Ht;Y CONSUMPTION
I* Reduction duu to
mobile travel
2. Reduction due to
increased travel
•peed:.

Sane as above
5aoe as above

Satte as above
s

•'- • :V: ; '
Same as above

L. 20% reduction
by thas* on
4-day work week
a* Reduction due to
increased tra-jvl
speed on off-day
1. Reduction due to
increased speed
2. Increase due to

us« of auto-
nobiles

AEh 'g'IMLETT
IMPACTS
1. RcffluetLon ttai* to
2. Reduction ituc to
dc*:rcii:irk»r
IircidllCtLVltY

™H£s
1. Lens reliance on
autonoM IP*
2 t Hnre ^uburbon
arientea «oei»ey
3. For soee, increased
travel tiaes

l.Less reliance en
autooobiles
1. Less reliance on
autooobilea

l.A&Utlonal Iftlsure
ti»-

1. Lois stressful
coroutine, due
to traffic
decOn^estiOft

I. (tore eonv«nM-ne
ii»A nt non-work
time.

—
MA.IOR O'ltiTkAiNTS
1. ^V*.»M n.ul.-(u^t^
a^'Jlnb uTtravei,
l.4,HlJ 10.,
prutilbk ir»r redwtec
parkkntf c^ccd.
2. MrHlrratci re luctjffc*
to u^e sia^K transit
ev%n if available*
Keojuir«*tents for
car in addition to
consult in?.
t

3* ?
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FIGURE 11-2

SUMMARY OF MAXIMUM ENERGY SAVINGS

(1012 BTU)
POLICY
1. Parking Management
a) Reduced Parking
- Off-street
Commercial '
•- Off-street
Employer
*- On-street
b) Increased Parking
Fees
c) Fringe Parking
d) Reduced Parking
Fees for Carpools
2. Express Lanes
3. Mass Transit
Subsidies
4. Revised Work Hours
a) 4 day Work Week
b) Staggered Work
Hours
c) Flexible Work Hours
1977

354
897
424
329
403
300
424
373

285
69
239
1980
I

378
1038
453
352
430
316
453
398

306
139
256
1985

450
1231
538
418
510-
376
538
468

367
166
298
1990

545
1492
653
507
619
456
653
573

442
202
371
II-3
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B. MAJOR FINDINGS
1. Parking managementpolicies have greater potential for
energy savings than those measures that depend on voluntary shifts
to mass transit or•carpools. As can be seen from Figure II-2.,
the elimination of parking, be it off-street commercial, off- ••'-.
street employer, or on-street parking, results in more energy
savings than either express lanes or mass transit subsidies.
The reasons for this are that mass transit cannot be made avail-
able to all commuters in SMSAs on a cost effective basis and
that people would tend to use cars in spite of added conven-
ience of mass transit.
2. Savings in energy consumption resulting from increased
speed of traffic are significant compared to savings resulting
from the decreased use of automobiles. From studies of the
effects of stop-and-go traffic on automobile miles per gallon,
it was established that reducing traffic congestion can result
in sizeable energy savings, e.g. reducing the number of stops
and starts from two per mile to none can increase the energy
consumption efficiency of .automobiles by 37%. This is only a
rough indication of the energy savings. More analysis of the
effects of stop-and-go travel on energy consumption must be
conducted for specific traffic environments in order to arrive
at a more reliable estimate.
3. The energy savings potential of the increased use of both
mass transit and carpools are significant. On an average, bus
transit consumes 1694 BTU/passenger mile and rail transit 1541
2
BTU/passenger mile. The automobile consumes 10,074 BTU/
vehicle mile (or 13.5 MPG). Thus, if a commuter were to
travel equal distances by mass transit or by automobile
MATHEMATICA,=
Faucett, 1974.
Chase Econometrics, 1974.
II-4
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there would be approximately an 85% saving in energy
mass transit. It has been estimated that a commuter in a
carpool, on an average, lengthens the commuter trip by about
5%. This is due to having to go out of one's way to pick up
the carpoolers. Thus, the percentage gasoline savings of those
commuters additional to the driver using car pools1 instead of
single occupancy vehicles is approximately 95%.
4. Unless staggered work hours or flexiblework hours
are implemented in conjunction with parking management programs,
the energy saved from the reduction in traffic congestion can
be offset to a great degree by increased automobile ridership.
The energy savings resulting from the elimination of stop and
2
go travel was estimated at 37%. However, each user of mass
transit that switches to the use of his automobile for commuter
travel increases his energy consumption rate by approximately
a factor of six.
MATHEMATICA, 1974,
•Claffey, 1971.
II-5
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11-6
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III. BASELINE TRAVEL AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA
A. OVERALL APPROACH
The quantitative analysis of the urban VMT reduction
measures was based on the calculation of the vehicle miles
traveled for automobiles (single occupancy and car pools)
and passenger miles for the bus and rail modes for home to
work trips. By applying the policies in terms of mode shifts
or reduction in total trips, the resultant vehicle miles and
passenger miles traveled were calculated. These changes were
. then reflected in terms of changes in energy savings, air
quality, and economics. This methodology is summarized in
flow chart form in Figure 1-1.
B. TRAFFIC PATTERNS
1. Analytical Formulation
The energy consumption, environmental, and economic
impacts were evaluated as a function of miles traveled by each
mode. Therefore, the traffic patterns resulting from each
policy were quantitatively described in terms of miles
traveled as follows:
AUTOMOBILE MILES TRAVELED
VMTA =
PTA
AO
ADA
©
Where PTA = person trips using automobile
ADA = average distance of trips using
automobiles
AO = automobile average occupancy
BUS AND RAIL PASSENGER MILES
PMB = (ADB)(PTB)
Where ADB = average travel distance of bus
. passenger
PTB = bus person trips
A similar equation was used for rail passenger miles
(PMR) .
III-l
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2. Energy Consumption
The energy consumption resulting from a given level of
VMT was ;calculated using an energy consumption rate per VMT
as follows:
ECT = (VMTA) (ECRA) + (PMB) {ERCB) -I- (PMR) ,(ECRR)
Where EC™ = total energy consumption
VMTA = automobile vehicle miles traveled
PMB = passenger miles using buses
PMR = passenger miles using rail
ECRA = automobile energy consumption rate
per vehicle mile
ECRB = bus energy consumption rate per
passenger mile
ECRR = rail energy consumption rate per
. passenger mile
3. Air Quality
The total carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide and hydro-
carbon emissions were calculated as the sum of emissions from
vehicle and stationary sources. The mobile source emissions
are projected as the product of the average emission rates for
each pollutant of all the cars in use in any given year multi-
plied by the total miles driven in that year. This can be
stated analytically as:
t = AERit X MDt
where
EM.. = emissions of type i in year t
it
AER.t
MD,
average emission rate of pollutant i
in year t
miles driven in year t
III-2
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4. Costs of Transportation
The total change.in the costs of transportation will be
the increase in the costs of using mass transit or carpools minus
the cost savings resulting from a reduction in the use of auto-
mobiles. This can be stated analytically as:
TCT = (CPMA) (AMT) + (CPMB) (PMB) + (CPMR) (PMR) . 1
j-
where
TCT = total cost of travel .
CPMA = cost per mile to operate an automobile
AMT = automobile miles traveled
CPMB = cost per passenger mile for buses
PMB = passenger miles on buses
CPMR = cost per passenger mile for rail transit
PRM = passenger miles on rail
The impacts on the automobile industry will be stated in
terms of the impacts'on new car purchases.
The changes in revenues of the mass transit operators was
assumed to be equal to the changes in revenues as computed from
the standpoint of the consumer.
The impacts on government that were analyzed were changes
in tax revenues, costs of subsidies, and increases in adminis-
tration costs of compulsory programs. The administrative costs
of compulsory programs and the costs of specific types of sub-
sidies are peculiar to each measure and therefore are not dis-
cussed in a general manner. Tax revenue calculations
were' based on federal gasoline taxes of 4 cents per
gallon.
5. Balance of Payments
The impact on balance of payments was handled consistently
for each measure under two assumptions. First, it was assumed
that all energy saved was translated in its entirety into a
reduction in oil imports. This represents the "maximum" case.
U.S. Department of Transportation/Federal Highway Administration,
1974.
III-3
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As a "minimum" case, it was assumed that.the fraction of the
energy saved which will be considered to be imported oil was
the existing fraction of the total domestic oil consumption
which is accounted for by imported oil. This fraction presently
is about 30%.
C. BASE YEAR DATA -
. j
1. Traffic Patterns
Automobile vehicle miles and bus and rail passenger
miles were calculated by multiplying the percentage breakdown
of home-to-work trips by each mode by the total number of home-
to-work commuter trips. This was done for the following SMSA
population groupings: . .
- under a quarter of a million
a quarter of a million to half a million
half a million to one million
- one million to two million
two million to three million
- over three million
The total number of commuter trips was calculated
in stages. First, the average number of commuter trips per
year per employed person was calculated in 1972 by dividing
the total number of commuter trips, 34.69 billion trips by
2
the total number of workers in the United States, 81.7 million.
This yields 424 trips per year per employee, which corresponds
to roughly a 10% absentee rate, ' , assuming an average of
three weeks vacation and ten paid holidays. This may be a
little high, but the total number of employees includes workers
not employed all year round. The total number of workers in
Jack Faucett Associates, 1974.
'Department of Commerce, 1974, Table 568
III-4
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1 ")
1970, the base year, was 78.63 million workers of which 68.6%,
or 53.9 million workers, were employed in all SMSAs. Applying the
average of 424 commuter trips per employee per year, 22.9 billion
home-to-work trips occurred in SMSAs in 1970.
This total number of trips was applied to the distribution
by mode and SMSA population category, Figure III-2, to arrive
at the total number of home-to-work trips taken in each SMSA
category by car, bus, and train. The results are shown in
Figure III-3,
2. Energy Consumption
The energy consumption rates for the base year are
shown in Figure III-4. For the urban mass transit modes, the
average energy consumption rate was calculated as the total
energy consumption divided by the total passenger mile figures
as published by the American Transit Association.
The base case automobile miles per gallon figure was
calculated based on energy consumption rates for each model
year car collected as part of the EPA surveillance program.
The average consumption rates in each year were calculated by
weighting each model year energy consumption rate by the gaso-
4
line used by each model year car.
Applying these energy consumption rates to the.
traffic data described in Section B, base year energy con-
sumption estimates were made as shown in Figure III-5.
Department of Commerce, 1974, Table 568,
"Ibid. Table C, pg. 865.
3.
'American Transit Association, 1972.
'Faucett, op_, cit.: -
III-5
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-------
FIGURE III-4-

ENERGY CONSUMPTION RATES FOR

HOME TO WORK TRAVEL IN 1970
MODE
Auto1
Bus2
Rail3
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
RATE
10,074 BTU/vehicle miles
13.5 vehicle miles/gallon
1694 BTU/passenger mile
1541 BTU/passenger mile
1. Chase Econometric Associates, Future Automobile
Fuel Consumption, submitted to Council on
Environmental Quality, 1974.

2. MATHEMATICA, Analysis and Synthesis of EPA
Energy Conservation Studies, submitted to EPA,
1974.

3. Equal to commuter rail and rail rapid transit
energy consumption divided by total miles
traveled in each.(Faucett, op.cit. pg. 1-7,8)
III-8
-------
FIGURE III-5
ESTIMATES OF 1970 ENERGY CONSUMPTION
MODE
Automobile
V
Bus
Rail
Total
USAGE1
140.5 billion
vehicle miles
12.5 billion
passenger
miles
10.8 billion
passenger
miles

ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
RATE2
10,074 BTU/vehicle
mile
(13.5 miles per
gallon)
1694 BTU/passenger
mile
1541 BTU/passenger
mile

ENERGY -
CONSUMPTION
(1012 BTU)
1,415
21
17
1,453
1. See Figure III-3.

2. See Figure ni-6.
III-9
-------
In order to check the validity of these calculations,
energy consumption estimates were compared to other estimates
1 2
made by Faucett and Hirst, Figure III-6. As can be seen,
there are some discrepancies. The reason the Project Inde-
pendence estimates for automobile gasoline consumption are
higher is due to the fact that the data is for 1972, and the
person trips are higher. Since it was not clear from the docu-
mentation how these figures were derived, a detailed recon-
ciliation could not be done.
The energy consumption by buses is different for both
Project Independence and Hirst because these figures included
non-commuter trips.
The rail figures show significant discrepancies. The
MATHEMATICA calculation results in 10.8 billion passenger miles
and agrees with the Project Independence estimates of.10.7
3 4
passenger miles. Hirst uses 7.2 billion passenger miles.
The energy consumption rate used by Hirst was 4100 BTU/
passenger miles versus 1541 used by MATHEMATICA and Project
Independence, A detailed reconciliation of the figures was
not conducted.
Eric Hirst, 1973.
2
Chase Econometrics, 1974.
Hirst, op. cit.
American Association of Railroads, 1972.
5Eric Hirst, April, 1973.
6MATHEMATICA, 1974.
7Faucett, July 1974.
111-10
-------
FIGURE III-.6

COMPARISON OF ESTIMATES OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION

FOR HOME TO WORK TRIPS IN SMSAS

(1012 BTU)
SOURCE
MATHEMATICA (1970)
Project Independence
(1972)
Hirst (1970)4
AUTO
1415
23262
17485
BUS
r
1
21
383
483
RAIL
17
16
303
TOTAL
1453
2380
1826
i
1. Jack Faucett Associates, Project Independence and Energy
Conservation; Transportation Sectors/ submitted to the
Council on Environmental Quality, July 1974.-

2. Equal to total home to work vehicle miles (pg.1-6) multiplied
by average energy consumption rate of 11,340 BTU/miles
factored down by proportion of population in SMSAs (64%).

3. Includes all local transit.

4. Eric Hirst, Energy Intensiveness of Passenger and Freight
Transport Modes, 1950-1970, April 1973.

5. Total home to work trips factored down by fraction of
population in SMSAs (64%).
III-ll
-------
3. Air Quality
The base year calculation of mobile source emissions was
based on data on vehicle miles traveled and the average emission
rates. Since the vehicle miles traveled as calculated in the
previous section was for home to work trips alone, these estimates
have been increased to include all types of travel. This was
done by multiplying the home-to-work vehicle miles traveled in
each SMSA grouping by the ratio of all automobile travel to
commuter automobile travel. (Figure III-7)
To calculate total emissions, the vehicle miles traveled
data was multiplied by average emission rates as shown in
Figure III-8. As noted, carbon monoxide emissions are based
on the commuter travel only because of the quick response of
.carbon monoxide density to carbon monoxide emissions. (The
emissions from buses was not included in this analysis. It was
felt that the sensitivity of air quality to changes in bus travel
was not great enough in light of the projected variations in bus
travel.}
Once mobile source emissions were calculated it remained
to calculate stationary sources emissions to arrive at the total
level of emission. This is a difficult task to accomplish for
all SMSAs, therefore, a sampling was taken using the Transpor-
tation Control Plans submitted to EPA by several major cities.
The results of this survey are illustrated in Figure III-9.
Although there are some indications of a relationship between
SMSA size and percentage from stationary sources, as in the case
of carbon monoxide, they are not significant enough to warrant
special analyses for each group separately. Therefore, the
weighted average of all cities will be used for all SMSA
population categories.
Hl-12
-------
FIGURE II1-7
BASE YEAR DATA ON HOME-TO-WORK

AND TOTAL AUTOMOBILE VMT

Project Independence
(1972)
Calculated SMSA Data
(1970)
Under 250,000
250,000 - 499,999
500,000 - 999,999
1,000,000 - 1,999,999
2,000,000 - 2,999,999
3,000,000 and Over
Total
Horae-to-Work
VMT
(billions)

17. 62
23. 82
18. 32
21. 82
14. 72
44. 72
140. 52
Total
VMT
(billions)

51.7
69.9
53.7
64.0
43.2
131.3
412.5
Total/Home-
to
Work

2.94
2.94
2.94
'2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
Project Independence & Energy Conservation: Transportation
Sectors, T. Faucett Associates,submitted "to Council on En-
vironmental Quality, July 1, 1974, pages 1 through 6.

"See Figure III-3.
111-13
-------
FIGURE III-8
CALCULATION OF TOTAL 1970 EMISSION LEVELS
(billions of grains)

SMSA Category
Under 250,000
250,000 - 499,999
500,000 - 999,999
1,000,000 - 1,999,999
2,000,000 - 2,999,999
3,000,000 and Over
Total
VMT (billions)1
Kome-to-
Work
17.6
23.8
18.3
21.8
14.7
44.7
140.5
Total
51.7
69.9
53.7
64.0
43.2
131.3
412.5
Carbon Monoxide
Emissions from
Home- to-Work Trips
1,108 '
1,498
1,152 :
1,372
925
2,814
8,845
Total
Nitrogen
Oxide
Emissions
232
- 314
241
287
194
589
1,852
Total •
Hydro- 1
carbons „ I
A ^H
Emissions •
306 1
•
H
414
318
379
256
777
7,442
See Figure m-i.
An average emission rate of 62.96gm/mi was used based on MATHEMATICAL
analysis.
An average emission rate of 4.49gm/mi was used based on MATHEMATICA1s
analysis.
i
An average emission rate of 5.92gm/mi was used based on MATHEMATICA's
analysis.
111-14
-------
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-------
4. Costs of Transportation . •
National average cost figures for automobile operation
were used as shown in Figure 111-10. Since real dollars were
chosen for the impact analysis, the costs for each class of
automobile are assumed to be held constant for the base case.
Since these figures reflect current increases in gasoline
prices, it is felt this assumption is reasonable even for gaso-
i-
line prices. This assumption could be refined in the future by
incorporating more current projections of gasoline prices. The
total cost will change as indicated by each measure. Although
these costs are oriented towards a suburban environment, it is
felt they are sufficiently representative of general commuter
travel, which includes some suburban travel.
The cost of commuter rail was assumed to be 4.86C/
passenger mile. The costs of new automobiles are given in
Figure III-ll. '' - - -. .
5. Balance of Payments
The savings in gasoline consumption that can be re-
flected in savings in oil imports as described above were
multiplied by the current price of foreign oil, $11 per barrel,
to arrive at estimates of changes in the balance of payments.
D. PROJECTIONS
1. Traffic Patterns .
It was felt that the projections made in the Project
Independence Blueprint should be chosen for the analysis. They
have been widely disseminated and have been used for many other
analyses and therefore serve as a good basis for comparison.
Since oil prices have risen so dramatically in the past and are
expected to continue to rise, the $ll/bbl scenario was chosen.
The average annual percentage increases for this case for auto
transit, and commuter rail are shown in Figure 111-12. This
results in passenger mile projections as shown in Figure 111-13.
The average trip distances for all modes and the automobile
occupancy rates were assumed constant in the future.
111-16
-------
FIGURE III- 10

CALCULATION OF BASELINE AUTOMOBILE OPERATING COSTS

Standard
Compact
Sub-Compact
Avg.
Operating
Cost1
(
-------
FIGURE III-H
CALCULATION OF AVERAGE COST OF NEW AUTOMOBILES
TYPE OF CAR
Standard
Compact
Sub-Compact
Average Cost
1974 PURCHASE
COST1/5($)
4,251
2,910
2,410

SHARE OF SALES
1974
563
18
26
3531
19774
49
21
20
3419
19804
44
24
32
3345
19854
32
29
39
3147
19904
24
33
43
3023
4
Costof Operating An Automobile, U. S. DOT, April 1974.
'Potential for Motor Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvement, DOT/EPA,
October, 1974, page 21.
Includes intermediate and specialty cars.
Extrapolation of historical trends.
'For 1973 Model Year. . .
111-18
-------
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111-19
-------
FIGURE 111-13

BASELINE SMSA PROJECTIONS OF HOME-TO-WORK TRANSPORTATION
Mode of Travel
Auto (billions
of vehicle mi.)
Bus (billions of
passenger mi. )
Rail (billions of
passenger mi.)
1970
140.5
12.5
10.8
19721
145.9
13.0
11.2
1977
181.6
16.2
13.9
1980
205.8
18.3
15.8
1985
242.5
22.4
19.3
1990
308.2
27.4
23.6
Source: See Figures III-3 and III-4.

1. Increased from 1970 levels - in proportion to increase in
number employed, 1974 Statistical Abstract, Table 568.
111-20
-------
2. Energy Consumption
Projections of average automobile energy consumption
were made based on the analysis of recent developments in the
area of automobile energy efficiency. This analysis included
the effects of scrappage rates for old cars, new car sales,
total miles driven, and the energy efficiency of future new
model cars. (See Figure 111-14)
Since the overwhelming portion of the energy consumed
for urban travel is accounted for by the automobile, the
emphasis of increased energy efficiency has been placed on
the automobile. For this reason, it was assumed that the
energy consumption rates for mass transit will remain constant
in future years.
By using the projections for level of home-to-work
travel and energy consumption rates for bus, rail, and auto,
energy consumption projections were made. Figure 111-15. This
level of energy consumption, however, includes travel during
off-peak hours. Since the measures considered in this report are
oriented to peak hour travel, that portion of the travel occurring
during off-peak hours was eliminated. It has been estimated
that 80% of the total commuter travel occurs between 6 and 9 a.m.,
and 4 and 6 p.m. Therefore, the total energy projection in
Figure III—1.5 was factored down by 20% for use in the impact
analysis.
3. Air Quality
The projections of mobile emissions were made based on
projections of vehicle miles traveled as described in Section B
of this chapter and projections of average emission rates as
2
analyzed by MATHEMATICA (Figure 111-16). This analysis assumed
that the Federal regulations will be in force in 1978 for
Department of Transportation, 1972.
'MATHEMATICA, 1975^
Iir-21
-------
FIGURE III-14 .

BASELINE PROJECTIONS OF AUTOMOBILE ENERGY CONSUMPTION RATES
YEAR

1970
1977
1980
1985
1990
BTU/VEHICLE MILE
New Cars •*•

8,947
8,888 .
8,888
8,888
Average ^
10,074
9,510
9,189
8,947
8,888
MILES PER GALLON
New Cars1

15.2
15.3
15.3
15.3
Average 2
13.5
14.3
14.8
15.2
15.3
1. Chase Econometrics, 1974.
2. MATHEMATICA estimates based on projections of new
car sales, scrappage rates, and average miles per
vehicle.
111-22
-------
FIGURE III-.15
BASELINE PROJECTIONS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION

BY HOME-TO-WORK TRIPS IN

(1012 BTU)
MODE
Auto
. Bus
Rail
TOTAL
Consumption during
peak travel hours
19701
1415
21
17
1453
1162
19772
1625
27
22
1674
1339
19802
1829
31
25
1885
1508
19852
2155
38
30
2223
1778
19902
2738
46
37
2821
2257
1. See Figure III-7.

2. Total mileage projected in proportion to the $ll/bbl.
scenario projections for Project Independence and
energy consumption rates for automobiles as shown in
Figure III-9 and bus and rail rates held constant.

3. Estimated at 80% of total by Nationwide Personal
Transportation Study.
I11-23
-------
FIGURE III-16

PROJECTIONS OF AVERAGE LIGHT-

DUTY VEHICLE EMISSION RATES

(gra/mi)
YEAR
1972
1977
1980
1985
1990
POLLUTANT
Hydrocarbons
5.92
3.26
2.34
1.46
.98
Carbon Monoxide
62.76
33.46 ,
21.67 .
11.39
6.92
Nitrogen Oxides
4.49
3.50
3.31
2.82
1.93

HdATHEMATICA, Inc., 1974.
111-24
-------
for hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. The NO standard was
assumed to be 2.0 gin/mi from 1978 through 1981 with a reduction
to 1.9 gin/mi in 1982. These are revisions to the standard of
.4 gni/mi originally proposed.
4. Costs ofTransportation
All the base year costs will be held at constant levels,
The significance of this is that all projections are made in
terms of 1974 dollars.
5. Balance of Payments
The future price of oil is assumed to be held constant
at $ll/barrel.
111-25
-------

-------
IV.
IMPACT ANALYSIS
A. APPROACH
1.
Summary
The quantitative impact analysis consisted of^quaivtifying
the impacts described in Chapters V through VIII~-and then apply-
ing them to the baseline data projections described in Chapter III,
The four major tasks involved in this analysis were:
- estimation of maximum levels of implementation
estimation of impacts resulting from the
maximum levels of implementation
- estimates of a likely range of implementation
levels •
evaluation of the effectiveness of combinations
. of policies or strategies.
In order to estimate maximum impact level of each policy,
it was necessary to develop some realistic limit on the fraction
of the total number of commuters which could be affected by the
policy. In most cases this maximum level is in excess of the
realistic limits on the policy. However, it is felt it is
important to make such estimates in order to achieve a per-
spective on the potential impacts of each policy. Details of
the calculations are given in Appendix A so that the reader can
evaluate different levels of implementation.
An evaluation of the impacts were approximate estimates
because of the wide variety of circumstances under which
the measures are applied. Although it is possible to anlayze
specific applications of each policy, it was not possible to
determine how prevalent each circumstance was on a national
basis for all SMSAs.
IV-11
-------
.#*'rhe last phase of the analysis consisted of estimating
Trea-1-istic levels of implementation. First, each policy was
eva-luated as if it were applied independently of all other
measUresT^Then strategies, or combinations of policies were
considered. One basic strategy which was evaluated consisted of
applying parking management plans in .conjunction with incentives
for car pools and mass transit. The other strategy involved
implementing staggered or flexible work hours with reductions
in parking. This could result in the reduced congestion of
traffic and at the same time prevent increased use of the
automobile. . " .
A discussion of the analytical techniques used to
evaluate the impacts of each policy and strategy follows.
2. Effects of Mode Shifts
Because of the significant difference between the
energy consumption rates of single occupancy automobiles and
car pools.and mass transit, significant energy savings can be
realized by diverting commuters from single occupancy auto-
mobiles to either car pools or mass transit. There are two
basic types of mode shifts considered in the following
analysis:
- away from single occupancy automobiles to
mass transit and carpools
to mass transit from autombiles
The first type of diversion is useful in evaluating the
effects of parking management policies. In this case the number
of automobiles must be reduced. This c.an be accomplished
either by the use of car pools or mass transit.
The second type of diversion, to mass transit, is appli-
cable for mass transit subsidies and express bus lanes. Here
it is assumed that automobile trips are diverted to mass transit.
The type of mode shift assumed for the staggered and
flexible work houts, the fourth measure considered, in essence.
IV-2
-------
is the reverse of the mode shift to mass transit. • Because
of the reduction in traffic congestion, some of the
commuters choose to use single occupancy automobiles
instead of mass transit. This results in diversion from
mass transit to the single occupancy automobile.
In calculating the effects of diversion from single
occupancy automobiles, it was assumed that diverted single
occupancy automobiles were diverted to car pools and mass
transit in proportion to the existing relative usage of car
pools and mass transit. For example, if twice as many
commuters use mass transit than car pools, two thirds of the
diverted single occupancy automobiles would be diverted to
mass transit.
In order to evaluate the effects of shifts, it is useful
to express the precentage energy savings in energy consump-
tion as a function of the average occupancy and the mass
transit market share. This interrelationship is shown in Figure IV-1
for all SMSA commuter travel. This graph was derived by
changing the parameters in the equations used to calculate
the baseline energy consumption described in Chapter III.
The loci of equal energy savings are plotted as a function of
average occupancy and mass transit market share. The percent
change at the actual average occupancy of 1.27 and actual
mass transit market share of 11.3% is zero. This must be
true because there should be no change in energy consumption
if there is no change in modes. However, if average occupancy
is held constant but the mass transit market share is increased
to 20%, (Point A), the energy consumed is reduced by appro-
imately 8% (or 121 trillion BTU in 1980). If the mass transit
market share is held constant and the average occupancy in-
creased to 1.4%, the energy consumption is reduced by 9%
(or 135 trillion BTU in 1980).
IV-3 :
-------
f*-t
•fi
CO
-------
3. EFFECTS OF SPEED ON AUTOMOBILE ENERGY CONSUMPTION EFFICIENCY
The effects of speed of traffic on energy consumption
as yet has not been adequately studied. There has been much
useful research on the effects of speed on automobile miles
per gallon for highway travel , but very little for con-
gested urban travel. A study using ,1964 data was conducted
! • • •
but it did not deal with the effects of highly congested
2
stop-and-go traffic . The importance of such research has
been indicated and guidelines for the accomplishment of a
monitoring program have been outlined , but there has not
been a recent comprehensive analysis of the problem.
Since it is widely accepted that the effect of the speed of
traffic in gasoline consumption in the urban home-to-work
travel environment is significant and since many of the mea-
sures dealt with in this study result in increased speed of
traffic, it was felt that at least some rough estimate of
this effect should be included in the analysis.
There are two characteristics of traffic flow which are
significant in the determination of the average automobile
miles per gallon: the average speed of traffic and the number
of stops. The effects of speed of the traffic on miles per
gallon is illustrated in Figure IV-2. Based on a sample
of major cities, it can be estimated that the present average
4
speed of commuter automobile traffic is approximately 20 mph .
Using the data in Figure IV-2, an increase to 30 mph would
result in a decrease of 12% in the gallons per mile and an
increase to 40 mph an 8% decrease.
For example, see E. M. Cope, 1973.
'Claffey, 1971.
Systems Development Corporation, 1971.
4bid.
IV-5
-------
FIGURE IV-2

AUTOMOBILE GASOLINE CONSUMPTION AS'A

FUNCTION OF AVERAGE SPEED
Miles Per
Gallon
24 -r

2 '
Source:
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 - -

AVERAGE SPEED (Miles per Hour)

Running Costs of Motor Vehicles as Affected by Road Design & Traffi
Highway Research Board, 1971.
IV-6
-------
The other major effect, decreasing the number of stops
and starts, tends to be more significant. It has been estima-
ted that traveling at -a constant speed requires 28% less energy
than traveling in congested traffic stopping twice per mile.
This will very with the volume of traffic but it is felt that
this is a good average gasoline estimate.
These two effects were combined in order to assess the
impacts of increased traffic flow and energy consumption. By
assuming a congested situation of 20 mph with two stops per
mile, the decrease in gallons per mile realized by increasing
the traffic flow to a steady 30 mph is 37%, equivalent to an
increase in mph of 50% . This combines the 28% decrease
resulting from the decreased number of stops and starts with
the 12% decrease resulting from the increased average speed
of the traffic.
It should be emphasized that this analysis is just a
generalized approximation. It assumes conditions which
certainly are not true for all home-to-work situations.
However, it is felt that this is a reasonable estimate of the
energy resulting from decongestion for the average situation.
In estimating the contribution to total energy saving
of reduced traffic congestion, it was assumed that 37% of the
energy consumed by commuters on highways could be saved. For
non-highway commuting, it was felt that the nature of local
driving requiring frequent stops at many intersections would
hot be changed as much as highway travel. Since 41% of the total
2
SMSA commuter miles traveled are on highways, it was assumed for each
estimate of maximum energy savings that 15% (or 37% of 41%) of
the energy consumed by commuters would be saved. An additional
5% was assumed to be saved for local travel.

•^laffey, 1971. This estimate assumes a six lane major arterial
that is heavily used with an attempted speed of 30 mph.
2See Figure IV-ll.
IV-7
-------
4. Environmental Effects
The approach used to evaluate the impacts of urban
VMT reductions on air quality is the rollback model. The
assumption underlying this approach is that a given per-
centage reduction in emissions will result in the same
percentage improvement in air quality. This is a highly
simplified approach, but it is felt that it is the most
efficient. To employ other more sophisticated techniques,
such as Gaussian dispersion models, would require a signi-
ficantly greater amount of data collection.
The density of pollutants is a result of emissions
from both mobile and stationary sources. Therefore , in order
to evaluate the impact of reductions in VMT on air quality,
the portion of the total emissions accounted for by mobile •
emissions were estimated.
Another factor which would influence the impacts of
reduction in urban VMT on air quality is the time of the day
during which the reduction occurs. If the air quality fluctu-
ates rapidly as a function of emissions, an argument can be .
made that a reduction in emissions during peak hours would be
more significant than an equal reduction during off-hours.
The worst air quality would occur during or shortly after rush
hours. This is true in the case of carbon monoxides but not
so for nitrogen oxides or hydrocarbons. The air concentration
of nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons builds up over a long
period of time so that it is reasonable to assume that a re-
duction in hydrocarbon, and nitrogen oxide emissions any time
during the day will result in an equally beneficial impact on
IV-8
-------
air quality. For carbon monoxide, the reduction in air quality
during rush hours would be more important than a reduction
during non-commuter hours. This will be reflected by calculating
the emission reductions as a percentage of commuter emissions
rather than daily emissions. .
The considerations described .above will be quantitatively
f
analyzed using the following relationships:
PCAQ .
ES+EMI'
(1)
where PCAQ
EMF
EMI
ES
and
EMF
where PRV
percentage change in air quality
final level of mobile source emissions
initial level of mobile source emissions
stationary source emissions
(PRV)(EMI)
percentage reduction in VMT
(2)
For carbon monoxide, this calculation of total emissions
will be done for rush hour only.
Because .of the poor data on the effects of stop-and-go
travel on emission rates, this effect was not included in the
analysis. It should be noted that significant reductions in
emissions may possibly occur as a result of decongestion.
5. Economic Impacts
The economic impacts of each measure were calculated
by varying the parameters of the equations described in
Chapter III. For example, if a measure results in a decrease
in the automobile miles traveled, the decreased miles d^vgn^^ ~
will be inserted into equation (1) of Chapter JJ^r^ection E-l,
to arrive at a new commuter tr,awrr'~cost.
V
IV-9
-------
The impacts on the automobile industry are not as
straightforward as the impacts on mode shifts on commuter
travel costs. Impacts on the automobile manufacturing
industry will depend on how many deferred purchases of cars
will occur as a result of decreased use of single occupancy
automobiles for work commutation trips. There are two basic •
situations under which a commuter does not reduce his car
ownership as a result of switching from automobile usage to
mass transit for commuter travel: the car he uses for commuting
is the only one in the family, or he chooses to maintain owner-
ship of the car that was used for commuting even though he owns
more than one car.
It should be noted that carpooling does not result in
the reduction in car ownership that mass transit does because
of the fact that a car pooler is expected to use.his car for
a portion of his trips. Although this reduction in the use
of his automobile may allow for reduced car ownership, it was
assumed that this was not a significant effect. Therefore, car-
pooling was not assumed to result.'.in a reduction in car ownership,
In order to gain insight into the impacts of these
considerations, data on commuter trips by number of cars owned
(Figure IV«3) -were utilized. It was assumed that:
- those commuters who own one car (40.6%)
maintain the ownership of one car
of those with two cars (44.9%) one out of
two will eliminate the. ownership of the
second car
of those with three or more (11.0%) all will
reduce their automobile ownership by one
iutomobile
The sum effecC^rs—4«a^fpr those commuters who shift
from the automobile, 33.5% (11.0% vrirjrf4
and 22.5% with two cars) will reduce their automobile owner
ship by one.
IV-10:
-------
FIGURE IV-3

PERCENT OF HOME-TO-WORK AUTOMOBILE TRIPS,

VEHICLE-MILES OF TRAVEL AND TRIP LENGTH,

BY HOUSEHOLD AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP.
Automobile ownership
Number
One
Two
Three
Total with cars
None
All households
Distribution
of
households
48.4
26.4
4.6
79.4 I/
20.6
100.0
Percent of
home- to -work
automobile travel
Trips
40.6
44.9
11.0
96.5
3.5
100.0
Vehicle-
miles of
travel
38.2
47.1
12.2
97.5
2.5
100.0
I/ Of all car-owning households, one-car households
represent 61.0 percent, two-car households represent
33.3 percent, and households with three-or-more
cars represent 5.7 percent.
Source: Nationwide Personnel Transportation Study -
Home-To-Work Trips and Travel, (Report No. 8),
U.S. Department of Transportation/Federal Highway
Administration, August 1973.
IV-11
-------
To assume that the reduction in car sales would be
felt in one year overstates the impact on car sales.
Therefore, it was assumed that the decision to reduce car
ownership takes the form of not replacing the car used for
commuting when it has aged to the point it must be scrapped.
Since the average life of a car is nine years, it was assumed
that one ninth of the calculated ownership reduction will
impact car sales in any one year. It is understood that this
is an approximation.

IV-12
-------
B. POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS
The approach used in evaluating the potential impacts of
the various parking management measures was to first estimate
the maximum energy savings resulting from the implementation
of these measures. By applying the implementation levels for
each of these measures, realistic understanding of the relative
i
potential of each can be assessed.
1. Parking Management
a) Reduced Parking Spaces
In theory this measure is rather easy to evaluate.
The reduction in the parking spaces of a given amount corres-
ponds exactly with the reduction in the number of car trips.
It remains to evaluate the alternative modes used by those
who are no longer driving their cars to work.
The reduction in parking spaces can be applied
differently to different types of parking spaces; namely
commercial parking, employer provided parking, and on-street
parking. The number of each type of parking is summarized in
Figure IV-4. (This data is not available for the various
SMSA population categories, so this breakdown was assumed for
each SMSA category.)
In order to assess the impacts of reducing the
various types of parking spaces.listed above, the energy
savings resulting from the elimination of each type of
parking are shown in Figure IV-5. It is important to note
that this analysis assumes that the elimination of parking
of one type is not compensated for by another type.
b) Increased Parking Fees .
The maximum energy impacts of increased parking
fees in commercial lots and on-street parking is the number
of cars which use such parking.
IV-13
-------
FIGURE IV-4
TYPES OF PARKING SPACES IN USE IN 1970

Commercial
Employer Provided
On Street
Fringe
Other
TOTAL
FRACTION OF
TOTAL
6.6
74.4
13.6
.5
4.9
100.00
TOTAL NUMBER
OF CARS USING SPACES
in 1974
(billions)
.63 .
7.14
1.30
.05
.47
9.59
Source: Nationwide Personnel Transportation Study,
Department of Transportation, 1972.
IV-14
-------
FIGURE IV-5
ENERGY SAVED RESULTING FROM THE

ELIMINATION OF VARIOUS TYPES OF PARKING SPACES
u
1400

100
Offstreet
Employer
Onstreet
Offstreet
Commercial
1975
1980
1—
1985
—I—
1990
IV-15
-------
Only 4.1% of total parking spaces available in SMSAs
are paid for by the car operator and it can be assumed that not
all of these are used by commuters. Therefore, even if the
fees are increased so that no commuters use such lots, the
energy savings are only 4.1% of the energy savings resulting
from the reduction of all parking spaces. (See Figure IV-6)
j
Since this fraction is small, it is important to control free
parking facilities or the measure will have little effect
other than to raise parking lot revenues. .
This analysis is limited because of the lack of
data on parking by SMSA size. In larger cities, where there
tends to be a greater portion of the parking that must be
paid for, the effects of increased parking fees will have
greater relative effects than those indicated above. It is
extremely difficult to estimate these effects.
c) Fringe Parking
The potential energy savings resulting from in-
creased fringe parking is limited to those people who have
access to mass transit but are not close enough to walk.
Data on this group of commuters is available from the Nation-
wide Personal Transportation Study as shown in Figure IV-7.
It will be assumed for the purposes of this analysis that those
commuters who live greater than three blocks from the nearest avail-
able public transportation in incorporated areas of greater than
50,000 are those who can benefit from fringe parking. .
The determination of the fraction of each SMSA
population category with access to mass transit requires ,
that the data on incorporated places of population size be
transferred into data by SMSA population size. This has not
been done by the Nationwide Personal Transportation Study but
has been done to some extent in the 1972 Census of Governments.
This study gives for SMSA population groupings the fraction of
the population living in incorporated areas of less than 50,000. •

1RAND, June 1974.

IV-16
-------
FIGURE IV-6 . ' .

ENERGY SAVINGS RESULTING FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION

OF VARIOUS PARKING MAMAGEMENT POLICIES
A
500
Energy
Savings
(1012 BTU)
400
300
200
100
Fringe Parking
Increased Parking
Fees

Reduced Parking
Fees for Carpools
1975
1980 1985

T I M. E
1990
IV-17
-------
By combining this data with interpolated values for percentage
of commuters having greather than 3 blocks access to mass .
transit from Figure IV-7, the fraction of the population
in each SMSA population category which has access to mass
transportation greater than three blocks away can be calculated.
This process is illustrated in Figure IV-8. . it should be .
noted that the results for the various SMSA categories do not
vary widely, substantiating the fact that an analysis of each. .
SMSA category will not provide useful insights into the
potential of fringe parking.
Using these derived estimates of maximum potential
utilization for all SMSAs of 13%, the maximum energy savings is
calculated in Figure IV-6.- it is assumed in these calculations
that the average occupancy of those cars utilizing the fringe
parking is equal to the average value for all commuters. •
d) Reduced Parking Fees for Car Pools
It is difficult to generalize a maximum level of
implementation of special reduced parking fees for car pools.
The ability for drivers to car pool is a function of the den-
sity of the commuter population, the density of the centers
for employment, and the types of industries. (See Chapter IV
for a detailed discussion.) One estimate that has been made
of the effects of reduced parking fees for car pools in Los
Angeles is illustrated in Figure IV-9.. AS can be seen from
this chart there is very little sensitivity of car pooling to ,
reduced parking fees. The average occupancy ranges from a
maximum of 1.43 cars with car pools of at least three occu-
pants benefitting from the reduced parking fee of one dollar .
to a minimum of 1.36 with no reductions. This is an increase
of only 5% on the average occupancy rates. The estimate of
the impacts of preferential parking rates for car pools is
included in Figure IV-6.

1RAND, June 1974.
IV-18
-------
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IV-19
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FIGURE IV-9
12

8
REDUCTION
114 IDMV
Mll£S 6
TRAVEtED

0
1.43
IVERAGE ESSENTIAl TRIP
AUTO OCCUPANCY
1.41
2Z. 1.4Z
3.0

1.0
Everyone
pays
NUMBER OF AUTO OCCUPANTS REQUIRED TO QUALIFY FOR
PARKING SURCHARGE EXEMPTION
D
VMT REDUCTION
MODAL SPLIT
The effect on 1977 VMT of exempting carpools
from a one-dollar parking surcharge on essential
trips, work destination only
IV-21,
-------
2. Express Lanes ; •
Since express lanes are applicable mainly on high-
ways and not on local streets, a limiting factor n the potential
of express lanes is the fraction of the commuters that travel
on highways. Unfortunately, there is no such data for commuter
travel specifically. But there is data on automobile travel by
type of thoroughfare in urban areas which is useful. A summary
of such data for 1972 is given in Figure IV-10. .The major •
problem in using the data, besides the fact that the data is
for all automobile travel in urban areas, is that the definitions
for each type of road are not clear or consistent for each state.
For purposes of this analysis, it was assumed that interstate
and primary urban roads are highways amenable to express lanes,
and secondary and local urban roads are not. Using these
assumptions, 41.5% of urban commuter traffic travels on high-
ways and 58.5% travel on local roads. It will be assumed that
a similar proportion of total bus traffic during commuter hours
will be on highways versus local roads.
It remains to determine what portion of the highway
traffic can benefit from express lanes. First, it will be
assumed as the average case that one lane of a three lane
highway is set aside for buses and carpooIs with two or more
occupants. As shown in Figure V-3, this situation has good
potential for the low to medium automobile occupancy cases.
In order to determine the resultant impacts of this
average situation, the assumption was made that the automobile
travelers will react so as to avoid increased traffic con-
gestion. Increased traffic congestion would result if drivers
continued using single occupancy automobiles because there
would be only two lanes available to them. In order to pre-
vent increased congestion, one third of the existing travelers

Department of Transportation, 1972.
IV-2 2
-------
FIGURE IV-10

URBAN AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL BY TYPE OF THOROUGHFARE

ON FEDERAL AID '
Interstate Urban
Other Primary Urban
Secondary - State Urban
- Local Urban
FAU Urban
Total
NOT ON FEDERAL AID
Other State Urban
Local
Total
Total All Roads
% Breakdown
HIGHWAY

122,135
159,053
-
, -
-
281,188.

. -
281,188
41.5
LOCAL

.
-
37,383
31,716
55, 514
124,613

21,437
250,877
272,314
396,927
58.5
Source: 1972 Highway Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, 1972
IV-2 3
-------
would have to shift to buses or carpools. This would result in
the same number of cars per non-express lane.
' It should be noted that the express lane will travel
faster than the non-express lanes under this series of
assumptions because the same number of travelers would be using
the express lane but in fewer vehicles. What has happened in
several recent experiences with express lanes is that the shift
in travel patterns has developed such that all lanes travel at
the same speed. Since the capacity of the highway is increased,
this equilibrium speed tends to be significantly greater than it
was without the express lanes. Therefore, it will be assumed -
that there will be significant decongestion benefits resulting
from the implementation of express lanes.
For projection purposes, it was assumed that one third
of the single occupancy automobiles were diverted to car pools
and buses. This is slightly higher than required by the assump-
tions because some of the existing automobile travel consists
of carpools. The breakdown between buses and carpools was assumed
to be equal to the existing relative usage. The percent of the
total number of cars diverted to the express lanes is then 33%
of 41% of the total automobile traffic, where 41% is the fraction
of the total commuter automobile traffic that occurs on highways.
This results in a net reduction of 14% and energy savings as
indicated in Figure IV-11. .,..

3. Mass Transit
Unlike the other measures being considered, the sub-
sidization of mass transit is not a clearly defined policy.
Subsidies can be used in several ways. They can be used for
the purchase of new capital equipment, namely buses or rail cars,
or they can be used to pay the operating costs of existing ser-
vice. In the former case, the new equipment can be used to
increase the frequency of existing service or to increase the
IV-2 4
_i
-------
700

2 400
e 30°
en
200
100
FIGURE IV-11
MAXIMUM ENERGY SAVINGS RESULTING FROM

THE USE OF EXPRESS LANES
1975 1980 1985 1990

YEAR
IV-2 5
-------
coverage of the service. The impact on travel patterns will
depend very much on which of the above ways the subsidies
are used.
The other variable is the level of subsidization.
Theoretically, if enough money is made available for virtually
door-to-door service for commuters, such as the Dial-a-Ride
concept in New Jersey, the market share can be increased
significantly. However, in light of the recent .abandonment
of the Dial-a-Ride service in New Jersey, it cannot be expected
that the level of funding required to implement such programs
on a wide scale would become available. • • .
In order to estimate maximum potential of mass transit
subsidization, it will be assumed that mass transit operating
expenses will be fully subsidized and that service similar
to that available for a portion of the population will be
made available to the whole population. In order to evaluate
the effects of increased service coverage, it was assumed that
mass transit would achieve the same market share of commuter "
traffic in the expanded service area as in the existing ser-
vice area. It can be estimated using data from Figures III-6,
7, that 57% of the SMSA population has access to mass transit.
As shown in Figure III-3, mass transit accounts for 11.3% of
the total commuter trips. The mass transit market share of
the commuters who have access to mass transit is 19.8% (11.3
divided by 57%). If this market share is assumed for the
expanded coverage area, which is 43% of the total population,
the incremental market share in the newly serviced areas is
19.8% of 43% or 8.5%. This increases the mass transit market
share to 19.8%.
IV-2 6
-------
In order to estimate the impacts of reducing the
transit fare to zero, a recent analysis done for the Los
Angeles area was utilized. In this report, it was esti-
mated that the usage of mass transit in the Los Angeles
area would increase by 41% (from a 2.2% market share to
3.1%). This percentage increase was/assumed to be true for
all SMSAs in the case of free transit. One important issue
involved in applying this percentage increase to all SMSAs
is the validity of such an analysis, which was done for
Los Angeles "suburban" urban areas, to all SMSAs, which
are mixtures of suburban and more urbanized areas. It was
felt that this shortcoming was offset by the fact that a
significant portion of SMSA travel is in suburban locales and
that the percentage increase, and not the absolute change, in
mass transit usage is being applied. By applying the 41% in-
crease due to zero transit fare, the maximum mass transit mar-
ket share is 27.9%. The implementation of the two policies
represents a doubling in the present level of mass transit
usage in all SMSAs. The resultant energy savings are shown
in Figure IV-12. .
It should be noted that the mass transit subsidization
results in a rather modest maximum potential in comparison to
•the other measures. This is due to the fact that this maxi-
mum was constrained by present market behavior and not by
constraints external to market behavior such as in the case
of the parking policies. It will be shown in Section C of
this chapter that mass transit subsidization becomes a more
effective policy tool when applied in conjunction with other
measures such as fringe parking. .
IV-2 7
-------
FIGURE IV-12

ENERGY SAVINGS RESULTING FROM MASS TRANSIT SUBSIDIES
is
H
s
W
w
A
800

0
1975
1980 1985

YEAR
1990
IV-2 8
-------
4. Revised Work Hours
The maximum potential for each of the three revised
work hour measures, the four day work week, staggered work
hours, and flexible hours, was calculated assuming 100% of
the work force adopted each measure. Thus, for a four day
work week, the maximum potential reduction in energy consumed
will be 20%. .This assumes that each commuter will reduce their
ten commuter trips per five day work week to eight commuter
trips for the four day work week. It is assumed there will
be no energy savings during each of the working days.
The evaluation of staggered work hours and flexible
time is more complex to evaluate than the four day work week.
The difficulty is not so much in specifying a maximum
level of implementation but in determing how commuters
will react to that level of implementation. As indicated
in Figure IV-13, there is a definite peak in commuter
travel between 7 and 8 a.m. A maximum level of implemen-
tation can be defined as the spreading of this peak hour
travel evenly over the time period 6 to.9.
The analysis of the:reaction to that level of imple-
mentation is complex because of the various types of effects
as shown in Figure VII-1. Spreading out the peak hours traffic
flow will result in a faster flow of traffic. This in turn
will make automobile travel more attractive, thereby
diverting mass transit to automobiles. In the case of
staggered hours, there is the added effect of discouraging
car pools. It has been shown that staggering work hours
has a negative effect on car pools because of the variation
in the working hours. This is not true for flexible hours,
however, because carpoolers-can arrange their work hours
to match with their fellow carpoolers.

See The Effects of Staggering Work Hours on Carpool Potential
and Transit Utilization Potential,Drs.Kendal and Don Ward,
March 19, 1974.
IV-2 9
-------
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Mass transit service is also a factor in determining
how commuters would react to flexible hours. If service is
not upgraded to handle the different flows of traffic,
commuters whose hours were changed could be discouraged
from using mass transit. On the other hand, it could be
argued that spreading out the peak load, and thereby increasing
the load factor, would enable the mass transit companies to
.provide better service to the shifted traffic because of
better utilization of capital equipment and labor. It was
assumed in the impact analysis that mass transit companies
would spread out its service in response to a lower peak load
but would not provide improved service. In other .words, the
decision to design to a certain fraction of the peak load .
would still be in force even if the peak load is reduced as
a result of the revised work hours. .
Because of the reduced traffic congestion, it was felt
that part of the mass transit usage would be diverted to auto-
mobiles. Unfortunately, there is little historical data on
the impacts of large staggered or flexible hours programs.
Thus, estimates of the number of mass transit users diverted
was difficult to make. In light of this, it was felt the
critical factor in making the estimate should be the fraction
of the mass transit users who made their decision to use mass
transit because of the lengthy automobile travel times resulting
from traffic congestion. If the cost of automobile travel or
the unavailability of a car for commuting were the predominant
reason for using mass transit, the increased travel speed
would tend not to divert those mass transit users. Therefore,
it was assumed that the number of cars owned was the most
important factor in influencing people to use mass transit.
In 1970, approximately 1.05 billion commuter trips by mass
transit were taken by people who do not own cars. This
represents 41.5% of the total number of commuters using

Personal communication with the Program Management Division
of the Office of Highway Planning, Department of Transportation.
IV-311
-------
mass transit. If all those who own cars switched to auto-
mobiles, the mass transit market share would be reduced from
11.3% to 6.6%. In order that the roads not become congested
again, the number of increased automobile commuters must not
be great.
Because of the nature of flexible hours, it was assumed
that the number of carpools was not changed. Those who are
carpooling can continue doing so. Since most employees were
working the same hours before the flexible work hours, those
who are not carpooling, for whatever reason, will not find
that the flexible hours concept provides significant new
incentives for carpooling. (It should be pointed out that
in some large factories where the factory workers report at
different hours from clerical workers, there may be new in-
centives for factory workers to carpool with clerical workers.)
In the case of staggered work hours, it was assumed that the
number of carpoolers was reduced in proportion to the peak
hour automobile drivers diverted to the new additional peak
hours. For the baseline assumption, this would mean a
reduction of 4% in carpools. For the staggered and flexible
work hours, the energy savings resulting from decongestion
were added to reflect the fact that speeding in peak traffic
flow results in increased energy consumption efficiency. This
savings is 20% of the gasoline consumed by automobiles. The
maximim energy savings resulting from the three measures are
shown in Figure IV-14.
IV-3 2
-------
FIGURE IV-14
ENERGY.SAVINGS RESULTING FROM

REVISED WORK WEEKS
700
— 600
D
500
400
en
300
200
53
- 100
""^r-^

1975
4 Day.Work Week
Flexible Work
Hours
aggered Work
Hours
1980
•
1985
1990
IV-3 3
-------
5. Results of Calculations
Figure IV-15 shows the maximum energy savings resulting
from all of the measures for 1977, 1980, 1985 and 1990. As
expected, the parking reduction measures are the most potent
means of reducing the energy consumption. This is a result
of the fact that by reducing parking spaces commuters are
required to use mass transit or car pools. However, it is
important to evaluate the significance of these findings in
terms of realistic levels of implementation. As explained in
Section C, the constraints on the parking reduction policies
are greater than the constraints on mass transit or express
lane policies.
The energy impacts of the flexible and staggered work
hours are less than for the three other policy areas. This is
due to the fact that the reduced travel times tends to induce
people to use automobile rather than mass tranist or car pools.
The savings in energy comes about as a result of the reduction
in traffic congestion. At faster, more even speeds, automobiles
become significantly more efficient users of energy. Energy
savings resulting from changes in the relative use of each mode
of travel only is illustrated in Figure IV-16, It can be seen
that without energy savings resulting from reduced traffic con-
gestion, there would be an increase in the use of energy if
staggered or flexible work hours were implemented.
Figure IV-17 summarizes the air quality and economic
impacts of the maximum implementation of each policy. ^The"
*****''
impacts on hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions- are
relatively small because of the fact that ^emissions of hydro-
carbons and nitrogen resulting from^commuter travel are small
portions of the total emissions'f^The emissions during commuter
hours accounts for onlv,34%""of the total automobile emissions.
In addition, 40% gf^€he hydrocarbon emissions emanate from
IV-3 4
-------
FIGURE IV-15

SUMMARY OF MAXIMUM ENERGY SAVINGS

UO12 BTU)
POLICY

1. Parking Management
a) Reduced Parking
: - Off-street
Commercial
•- Off-street
Employer
- On -street
b) Increased Parking
Fees
c) Fringe Parking
d) Reduced Parking
Fees for Carpools
2. Express Lanes
3. Mass Transit
Subsidies
4. Revised Work Hours
a) 4 day Work Week
b) Staggered Work
Hours
c).>Flexible Work Hours
1977

371
IV-3 5
-------
FIGURE IV-16
SUMMARY OF MAXIMUM ENERGY SAVINGS
EXCLUDING ENERGY SAVINGS DUE TO DECONGESTION
(1012 BTU)
POLICY
1. Parking Management
a) Reduced Parking
- Of f.-street
Commercial
- Off-street
Employer
- On-street
b) Increased Parking
Fees
c) Fringe Parking
d) Reduced Parking
Fees for Carpools
2. Express Lanes
3. Mass Transit
Subsidies
4. Revised Work Hours
a) 4 day Work Week
b) Staggered Work
Hours
c) Flexible Work Hours
1977

90
788
177
58
150
17
177
113

284
(191)
(54)
1980

f '
95
920
180
62
159
18
188
120

306
(204)
(57)
1985

113
1050
224
73
188.
21
224
135

367
(242)
(76)
1990

136
1320
271
' 89
228
26
271
171

442
(293)
(82)
IV-3 6
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IV-40
-------
stationary sources and 70% of the nitrogen oxide emissions.
Since carbon monoxide ambient air quality responds quickly
to changes in carbon monoxide emissions, it was felt that per-
cent changes in carbon monoxide emissions from commuter auto-
mobiles and stationary sources should be translated directly
into percent changes in ambient air quality. This approach
is also supported by the fact that the locations experiencing
the worst levels of carbon monoxide occur in the areas of
greatest automobile usage.
Because of the fact that mass transit travel is less
expensive than single occupancy automobile travel (4.4C/mi. vs.
13.8C/mi.), a diversion of automobile drivers to mass transit
results in significant travel cost savings. It is important
to note that the analysis assumed the same distance traveled
whether by mass transit or automobile. This, in most circum-
stances, is not the case, but it was not possible to estimate
these differences on a general basis. For example, for radially
oriented commuting, where commuters travel to one central busi-
ness district from surrounding residential areas, mass transit
involves the same travel distance as commuting. For circumfer-
ential commuting, where commuters are not oriented to one central
business district, but to several scattered business districts,
mass transit may not be nearly as convenient.
Except for the increased requirement for mass transit
vehicles resulting from the increased use of mass transit, none
of the measures require a significant capital investment.
Increased fringe parking would require investment, but it is
felt that these parking lots would be sufficiently far from
the central business districts so that costs would not be pro-
hibitive.
The impact on balance of payments is not particularly
significant. Assuming 6.5 mmb/d at $ll/bbl, the cost of importing
oil into the United States is 26.1 billion dollars.
IV-41
-------
C. STRATEGY ANALYSIS ;
1. Description.of Strategies -
In the previous section, the maximum potential energy
savings and their resultant impacts were estimated. As stated
in that section, those levels of implementation cannot be ex-
pected to be achieved within realistic economic, social and
political constraints. Therefore, to evaluate the relative
worth of each measure it is useful to make some estimates of
realistic levels of attainment. '
In addition to evaluating each measure separately in
this manner, combinations of measures, or strategies were
evaluated. This was considered important because of the
interactive nature of the measures. The impacts of the
joint application of the measures were evaluated separately.
Parking management plans are prime examples of the
need for such joint evaluations. Parking management is po-
tentially the most powerful transportation energy conservation
measure but at the same time, it is the most controversial.
Reducing the number of parking spaces will, by necessity,
reduce the number of automobiles used for commuting to work.
However, the public outcry in reaction to such a policy would
be tremendous unless there is provided some convenient alter-
native means of travel. ...-.-•
Several ways of providing alternative means of travel
were considered. First, all the parking measures were con-
sidered together: reduce parking, increased fringe parking,
increased parking fees, and reduced parking fees for car-
pools. The increased fringe parking and the decreased parking
fees for carpoolers make alternatives to the single occupancy
automobile more attractive. Thus, there are absolute deterrents
to automobile commuting, namely reduced parking spaces, and,
at the same time, incentives provided for mass transit and
carpools.
TV-4 2
-------
The next strategy that was evaluated increased the
convenience of alternative modes of travel in the form of
express lanes for carpools and buses and increased subsidies
for mass transit. This allowed for significantly greater
improvements in mass transit and carpools. . '
The next set of strategies considered various imple-
mentation scenarios for staggered and flexible work hours.
As described in Chapter VII, the possibility exists for
significant shifts from mass transit to automobiles because
of the reduced traffic congestion resulting from the smoothing
out of peak hour traffic flows. Those people who choose to
use mass transit .because of lengthy travel times could be ex-
pected to revert to their automobiles if traffic travels faster,
One means of preventing this from happening is to limit the
parking in the city so that mass transit market shares do
not decrease. This allows for-the reduction in energy con-
sumption .resulting from increased travel speeds only.
2. Independent Implementation . • '
a) Parking Policies
Reduced parking without improvements in alter- .
native means of travel is not considered a desirable strategy
for political reasons. Recent experiences, particularly in
the Boston area, have shown that a policy of decreased parking
spaces has met with strong resistance. In light of this be-
havior, it is felt that the maximum reasonable level of
attainment would be the maintenance of existing levels of
parking for commuters in highly congested areas. As an
estimate of this, it was assumed that the parking spaces
which require payment are in congested areas and that they
would be held at a constant level. It was felt that fringe
parking would have a minimal effect on traffic patterns in
the absence of improvements in mass transit.
IV-4 3
-------
Changes in parking fees are not expected to have sig-
nificant effects because of the political constraints
associated with attempts to divert commuter travel to mass
transit without corresponding improvements in mass transit
As an estimate of conceivable levels of reduction it was
assumed that parking fees would be increased as so to
keep the present paid parking at /present levels. -
Without complementary programs to stimulate car pooling, '
such as express lanes or matching services, it is felt that
reduced parking fees for car pools would not have a sig-
nificant effect. It should be considered in evaluating this
assumption that even without any reduction in parking fees
the use of a car pool results in a reduction of parking
costs of 50%, 67% or 75% depending on whether one, two or
three people are in the car pool. These are significant
cost reductions realized without any special reduction in
parking fees for car poolers. Any further reduction in
parking fees would have minimal effects.
b) Express Lanes
The effectiveness of express lanes is severely
limited in the absence of supplementary transportation con-
trol measures such as fringe parking and increased mass transit
service. This is extremely important for express lanes be-
cause, if the express lanes are not used, the non-express
lanes become more congested. This defeats the purpose of the
express lanes to increase the capacity of the highway and
to speed the flow of traffic. Thus, partial use of .the
concept would prevent it from coming into existence at all.
The creation of a new lane would prevent the.added con-
gestion of non-express lanes but it is felt that the expenses
associated with this construction would be .prohibitive.
As an estimate of realistic minimum levels of implemen-
tation of express lanes, it can be assumed that approximately
twenty projects in the order of magnitude of the Seattle
Blue Streak will be implemented per year for the period
IV—44
-------
1975 through 1990. Although it involved the establishment
of free park-and-ride facilities, it did not require a
significant level of capital investment so it can be con-
sidered to be implemented independent of other transpor-
tation policies. The Blue Streak express bus systems
were located within a quarter of a mile of 94,000
persons. Since, there were 78.63 million workers in 1970
out of a total population of 203 million,1 these 94,000
persons represnt approximately 36 thousand employees.
Applying 424 trips per employee per year, this amounts to
15 million commuter trips per year. Assuming twenty such
projects per year, the number of commuter trips exposed to
express lanes are 600 million in 1977, 1500 million in 1980,
3000 million in 1985, and 4500 million in 1990. Assuming
one third of these employees will switch to car pools or
mass transit, the percentage of total travel reduction in
automobile travel alone is 2.0% in 1977, 4.5% in 1980, 7.6%
in 1985, and 9.0% in 1990.
c) Mass Transit Subsidies
The estimate of achievable savings calculated in
Section B above can be used as reasonable estimates of the
realistic energy savings with a slight modification. It
was assumed in section B that the most likely manner in
which energy would be reduced by increased mass transit
subsidies was to make mass transit available to people
living at least six blocks from mass transit, and reducing
fares to zero.
As a realistic estimate it was assumed that the service
area would be increased but that the fares would remain the
same. This results in an increase of mass transit market
2
share of 8.5%.

'''U.S. Statistical Abstract, 1974.
2
See page IV-26 for calculations.
IV-4 5
-------
d) Revised Work Hours :
Changing from the existing system of work hours to -
100% implementation level of any of the revised work hour
systems could not happen quickly. There are too many in-
grained practices and customs to overcome. The limiting
factor is the desire on the part of society to adopt these
practices. As a realistic limit on the implementation of
such policies a purely arbitrary assumption was made that .
one percent of the labor force would change their working
habits per year. This would result in levels of imple-
mentation of 2% in 1977, 5% in 1980, 10% in 1985, and .
16% in 1990.
3. Parking Management Strategies
The two strategies that were evaluated consisted of com-
bining reduced parking spaces with improvements in alterna-
tive means of travel. In one strategy, the alternative
means of travel was supported by parking policies, namely
fringe parking and reduced parking fees for car pools. The
other strategy consisted of more substantial improvements
in car pooling and mass transit through the use of mass
transit subsidies and express lanes. " ',
An efficient manner in.which to implement reduced parking
measures to to reduce parking so as to result in the optimal
effectiveness of the mass transit and car pool strategies.
The purpose of this section of the analysis was to evaluate
the coordination of the various policies into an effective
and efficient parking management program.
Considering the first strategy, utilizing only parking
management policies, the maximum impact of fringe parking
is to divert 13% of the automobile drivers. The maximum
impact of reduced parking fees for car pools is to in-
crease car pools by 5% which is equivalent to reducing
automobile trips by 1.5%. If these two measures were applied
simultaneously, the reduction in parking would be 14.3%.
IV-4 6
-------
There are more significant reductions in parking re-
quirements as a result of express lanes and mass transit .
subsidies. It was estimated that express lanes would divert
14.0% of automobile traffic to mass transit and car pools,
and mass transit subsidies would divert 27.9 % of the auto-
mobile commuter traffic. Although it is not strictly
true that the policies are additive, for purposes of this
analysis it 'can. be assumed they are additive, resulting in
a 41.9% reduction in automobile travel.
4. Revised Work Hour Strategies • .
The primary effect evaluated in this strategy is the
ability of parking management policy to be combined with
revised work hours to bring about optimum levels of energy
sanigns. This can be achieved by limiting the parking
spaces to prevent the mass transit users from shifting to the
automobile to take advantage of the reduced traffic conges-
tion. It was estimated in section B of this chapter that the
mass transit market share would be reduced form 10.7% to
6.3%. In the case of staggered work hours, it is probable
that the car poolers could be reduced by 41%. To prevent the
reduction of mass transit users the available parking spaces
must be maintained at the baseline level. If the parking
management policies are implemented so as to eliminate the
reduction in mass transit use, the net energy savings becomes
the savings resulting from reduced traffic congestion, which
is 20% of the total energy consumed for commuting.
IV-4 7
-------
-------
V. EXPRESS LANES
A. BACKGROUND
Since it is potentially effective to reduce the usage of
single occupancy automobiles, the concept of express lanes
for buses and/or carpools has currently received renewed
attention as a result of the current energy crisis. By
.setting aside express lanes for buses and/or carpools, these
two modes of travel will have an advantage over the single
occupancy automobile. In addition to saving energy, the ex-
press lane concept has the advantage of increasing the capacity
of the existing roadway system. Buses and carpools have greater
capacities for transporting people than single occupancy cars.
The concept of an express lane, either for buses alone
or for buses and carpools, is a straightforward one. One lane
is set aside for exclusive use of buses and/or carpools for a
given time period during the day, usually limited to the commuter
rush hours. There are variations on the manner in which this
lane is set aside. For example, it can either be in place of
one lane or be one lane in the direction of traffic opposite
to the rush hour flow. .
The concept becomes more complex when other measures are
simultaneously implemented to further stimulate the use of the
express lanes. There are a wide variety of such measures which
can contribute to the use of buses in express lanes, namely:
fare revisions • • .
- fringe parking
comfort of the buses '
- non-fare costs such as parking
extent of special lanes in downtown area
- convenience of catching buses in
suburban areas
To stimulate Jihe^use of carpools for carpool express lanes,
the following measures can be implemented:
V-l
-------
- matching services
special parking for carpoolers
promotional activity
The basic issue in implementing an express lane is then
how to combine these measures with the establishment of the
express lane to result in the optimal' patronage of the express
lanes.
As examples of the various ways express lanes have been
implemented, descriptions of several major projects follow.
Seattle Blue Streak
Due to the rapid growth in traffic in Seattle in the
1960s, a traffic congestion problem developed on the main
north-south thoroughfare, Interstate 5 (the Seattle Freeway).
In order to alleviate this problem, an express bus system
was implemented in 1970. Buses in this system .use the 1-5
reversible roadway in the peak direction and have exclusive
use of the Columbia-Cherry runoff ramp at the southern part
of the Seattle central business district. A free park and
ride lot 8 miles north of downtown was established for
those using the Blue Streak service. .
The Shirley Highway Project - Washington, D.C.
The Shirley Highway express bus on freeway demonstration
project began in April 1969 and is still in operation. There
are three major elements in this program. First, there is
the busway which includes the exclusive lane Shirley Highway
and the bus priority lanes in Washington, D. C. Second,
the bus transit operation was upgraded with the purchase of
new buses, increases in number of routes, and more frequent
scheduling. Third, residential fringe parking facilities
were made available, either in shopping centers or in newly
constructed sites. The express lane on the'^Shirley Highway
was two reversible lanes in addition to the three non-*
reversible lanes.
V-2
-------
Lincoln_TunnelProject - New York City
In this project, buses used one of the three lanes that
ordinarily carried traffic in a westbound direction on
Interstate 495 approach to the tunnel during the morning.
This increased the number of lanes available for New York
bound traffic from three to four.
V-3
-------
B. IMPACT ON TRAFFIC PATTERNS
1. Mode Shifts
The basic measure of effectiveness of any express lane
program is the extent to which it can mbdefy the existing
transportation mode splits. For bus express lanes, it is
important to differentiate between shifts from single occu-
pancy automobiles versus carpools. The impacts will be
different depending on the relative mix of these two shifts.
Recent express lane programs have met with varying
levels of success. The Shirley Highway experiment has resulted
in an increase of 13% of the market share of buses, from 27% to
40% as shown in Figure V-l. At the same time, changes in
average occupancy rate were observed as shown in Figure V-2.
This would seem to. undermine the effectiveness of the project
to reduce gasoline consumption and emissions since it can be
inferred that some of the increase in patronage are commuters
who were in carpools. One of the arguments used to refute
this cause-effect relationship was that auto occupancy was already
declining at the time the project began (the project began in
April 1971 and the May 1971 occupancy of 1.53 represented a 4%
decline from May of 1970). In addition, auto occupancy had
been declining throught the metropolitan area and not only in
the Corridor where this maior transit improvement was implemented.
It should be noted that although the Corridor (Potomac) bridges
had the largest decline in auto occupancy rates, going from 1.59
in May 1970 to 1.44 in May 1972, the October 1971 survey showed
that of the bus passengers switching from auto, more than half
2
had formerly driven alone.

National Bureau of Standards, 1973.
2Alan M. Voorhees, 1971.
V-4
-------
FIGURE V-l

TRENDS IN SHIRLEY HIGHWAY CORRIDOR BUS MARKET SHARE

(Inbound A.M. Peak Period)
40
80
CO

EH
CO
D
10
SSI
m
2S
1
1668
OCX TO
OCT71

DATE
OCTTO
Source: The Shirley Highway Express-Bus-on Freeway Demonstration
Project/Second Year Results, Jarvis T. McQueen, Richard
F. Yates, and Gerald K. Miller, Technical Analysis
Division, National Bureau of Standards, November 1973.
V-5
-------
FIGURE V-2

TRENDS IN SHIRLEY HIGHWAY CORRIDOR AUTO OCCUPANCY

(Inbound A.M. Peak Period)
I.5CM
Source: The Shirley Highway Express-Bus-on Freeway Demonstration
Project/Second Year Results, Jarvis T. McQueen/ Richard
P. Yates, and Gerald K. Miller, Technical Analysis
Division, National Bureau of Standards, November 1973.
V-6
-------
An important factor in determining the impact on travel
selection is the extent to which the express lane speeds up
traffic for those who can use it and the extent to which it
slows up traffic in the non-express lanes. If a carpool/bus
express lane were to attract a large portion of the existing
traffic flow, the speed in that lane may decrease. This would
not stimulate the use of buses and carpools. This effect was
analyzed in great detail as shown in Figure V-3. These charts
display a rough assessment of the effectiveness of bus/carpool
express lanes as a function of the number of express lanes,
total number of lanes, the minimum occupancy for cars that
would be allowed to use the express lane, and the existing
average occupancy.. As can be seen, there are several situations
in which the reserved lane becomes so congested so as to greatly
.reduce the benefits of an express lane (e.g. those cars with an
average occupancy of 1.60 with one reserve lane opened to all
car pools).
An argument can be made that congestion induced in the
non-express lanes would stimulate a shift to carpools or buses.
However, there are grave political difficulties associated with
such a plan and would therefore be inferior to a plan that would
increase the speed of all types of traffic.
In general, the effectiveness of any express lane pro-
gram in bringing about mode shifts will depend on the circum-
stances in each case. For example, in a highly congested area
such as the New York City Lincoln Tunnel area, the saturation of
mass transit may be so high that those people not using it
require the use of their car for special reasons such as on-
the-job sales trips. The increase in bus patronage was found
to be minimal. Another reason for this effect was that the
bus express lane was'added to the existing number of lanes so
that the bus express lane decreased congestion in the non-
express lanes.
V-7
-------
2. Increased Speed of Traffic , '..
It is very desirable from the point of view of energy
consumption, emissions and commuter acceptance to increase the
speed of traffic. Express lanes will by their nature increase
the speed of buses. However, the speed of non-express lane
traffic will not necessarily increase. If the establishment of
the express lane reduces the number of non-express lanes, i.e.
the express lane is not added, but is one of the existing lanes,
the speed of the traffic in the non-express lanes could be '
reduced depending on how many automobile commuters are diverted
to buses. (See Figure V-3 for display of the conditions under
which this will occur.)
In the Shirley Highway express lane project, the express
lanes were added to the existing highway, so there was a decrease
in the volume in the existing traffic lanes and therefore an
increase in the speed of the traffic. This was also true in the
Lincoln Tunnel Project where one lane in the tunnel in the direction
opposite to the main flow of traffic was used as the express lane.
On the other hand, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation
rejected an express lane for the Schuylkill Expressway in the
Philadelphia area because of the decrease in the speed of
traffic in the non-express lanes.
3. Bus Service Reliability
The reliability of the bus service is an important factor
influencing the inclination of the public to use buses. It is
difficult for buses to adhere to a firm schedule in congested
traffic for several reasons. First, the bus can travel only as
fast as the flow of traffic and is therefore subject to the
variations in that flow. The other factor is that the buses
tend to bunch up resulting from the pick-up of passengers.
Once a bus is slightly behind schedule, there are more passengers
waiting at the bus stops-which 'in turn causes the bus to fall
; ' \
Statement by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, 1974.
V-8
-------
FIGURE V-3

GENERAL FEASIBILITY OF RESERVED LANE CONCEPT
HIGH OCCUPANCY - INITIAL MEAN* 1.60
KUMIC* OF FREEWAY LAKES
RESERVED
LANE
RULE
NUMBER OF KESEHVEO LAKES
MEDIUM OCCUPANCY-INITIAL MEAN = 1.40
RESERVED
LANE
RULE
NUMBED OF RESERVED LANES
LOW OCCUPANCY-INITIAL MEAN-1.176
RESERVED
LAME
RULE
NUMBER OF RESffWED LANES
GOOD' POTENTIAL
LIMITED POTENTIAL
(LITTLE SPEED ADWAttTAGC)

LITTLE POTENTIAL
(LAAGE SHIFT MEQUIKtD)
MO POTENTJA1 - < • •

-------
further behind schedule. On the other hand, the next bus is
picking up fewer passengers and is therefore getting closer
to the bus ahead of it. This combination of tendencies results
in time gaps in the service longer than is scheduled. The
extent to which this factor affects the reliability of the bus
service will depend on the number of stops the bus has to make.
The express bus lanes will increase the reliability
of the bus service by providing for a steady, more predictable
average speed. This increased reliability has been experienced
in the Shirley Highway project as shown in Figure V-4.
It has also been found that the number of accidents
has decreased in certain projects ; namely the Seattle Blue
Streak project. This was due to the fact that the flow of
traffic was less erratic and buses were segregated from
automobile traffic. "
Allan M. Voorhees, June 1973.
V-10
-------
FIGURE V-4

SCHEDULE ADHERENCE FOR A.M. PEAK PERIOD BUSWAY

BUS TRIPS AT FIRST STOP IN D.C.
WHEN
OBSERVED

Fall 71
Spring 72
Fall 72
Spring 73
NUMBER OF
OBSERVATIONS

216
91
296
169
PERCENT OF BUS TRIPS
EARLY

36.3
41.7
40.5
50.9
ON TIKE

7.5
13.2
11.5
11.8
MINUTES LATE
1-6 7-15 OVER 1.5
35.3 15.5 5.4
41.8 3.3 0
41.5 6.2 .3
31.4 5.9 0
Source: The Shirley Highway Express-Bus-on Freeway Demonstration
Project/Second Year Results, National Bureau of Standards,
November 1973.
V-ll
-------
C. ENERGY IMPACTS ' '.
The impacts on energy consumption will be those associated
with the mode shifts and increased speed as described above.
D. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
The environmental impacts will be 'those associated with
the changes in mobile source emissions as a function of miles
traveled and the increased average speed of traffic. There are
also potential land use impacts associated with the building of
fringe parking lots which are often built to stimulate the
use of bus transit in combination with an express lane.
E. ECONOMIC IMPACTS .. *•
The economic impacts can be broken down into the three major
areas: bus transit operation costs and revenues, commuter
travel costs,and implementation costs. The severity of each". '
type of cost will depend on the nature of the program and
characteristics of the local transportation system. .
The bus transit operating costs and revenues will change
as the number of riders increases. The increased ridership
will increase revenue and the operating costs will tend to go
up more slowly. In the case of the Seattle Blue Streak project,
this was due partially to better safety records and to lower
maintenance costs.
. The change in the costs of commuting will depend on the
nature of the project and the mode shift. If there is a shift
from automobile to bus transit, the change in transportation
costs can be calculated as the difference between the costs of
the automobile and the transit fare. The elimination of
parking fees would be included in this calculation.
The cost of implementation can vary widely. If the project
only involves shifting traffic from one lane to another, the main
costs would involve the signs and other equipment necessary to
control the flow of traffic. A typical cost for controlling the
V-12
-------
flow of traffic with the use of fixed message signing is
119 thousand dollars with $6,000 a year maintenance cost.
This was for the institution of a one lane express service
for the Memorial Shoreway in Cleveland, Ohio.
It should also be noted that there are one-time costs
.associated with planning the system., This, in most cases,
involves a detailed study of the existing transportation
network and a survey of the existing traffic flows. For
example, even though the Lincoln Tunnel project was opened in
December of 1970, studies for such a system dated back to 1963
The costs of operation of the project during its first year
was $176,000.2
There are also costs associated with public information °
programs for "a key to the success of the reserved lane i
concept is an aggressive and effective public information i
,,3 • • :
program. ;
F. SOCIAL IMPACTS
The primary social impact is the improved commuter travel.
First, there is the reduced travel time which increases the
amount of time spent at home. There is also the psychological
advantage of avoiding the congested travel and having more
reliable bus service. .
LAlan M. Voorhees, 1971.
Leon Goodman, 1972.
JAlan M. Voorhees, 1971.
V-13
-------
G. CONSTRAINTS . ..
The two most important constraints to the implementation ,
of express lanes are public opinion and existing laws and
regulations. Once public opinion has been swayed in favor of
express lanes, the legal mechanisms must be put in motion.
The public reaction tothe express lanes project will
depend on the circumstances surrounding it and the type of
express service. Since the express lane traffic will benefit,
the resistance will involve the effects on the non-express
lane traffic. As described, above, under certain circumstances,
the allocation of one lane for buses and/or carpools could
significantly slow down the flow of traffic in non-express
lanes. In this instance, recent experience has shown that an
express lane would not be acceptable to the public.
A public awareness program is important to"the success of
an express lanes program.. In general, the public is very
wary of any program that increases the restrictions on .
highway movement. Therefore, "enforcement of this concept
[express lanes] without an accompanying education effort can
result in a negative image in the minds of many citizens."
In addition to having the public accept an express lane,
the public awareness program should also stimulate the use of
the express lanes in the form of increased bus ridership or
carpools.
The public awareness program can be directed to several
audiences, namely public officials, citizen leaders, the media,
special interest groups, and the users. The importance of each
type of audience must be determined for each particular project.

"^Alan M. Voorhees, 1971.
V-14
-------
There are several ways of informing the users, ranging from
very broad advertising programs to the distribution of flyers in
the immediate area, as was done in the Lincoln Tunnel project.
News releases, resulting in media coverage, are also of
value.
The recent major constraint is the legal mechanism required
to bring the express lane into reality. The first step is to
determine whether legislation is required. In most cases, new
legislation at the state level is not required, changes in
local ordinances being adequate. Such ordinance changes would
be required from each municipality or county the express lane.
passes through.
Once the legality of the concept has been achieved, the
.traffic control devices used to control the flow of traffic
must conform to state specifications. This, in most all cases,
is not a serious constraint.
The legal procedures required to change bus routes, if any
changes are required, must be adhered to. In most cases, this
would involve negotiations with state public utility commissions.
The level of enforcement is an important factor in the
success of an express lane program. The severity of the
enforcement will depend on the relative speed of flow of the
express and non-express lanes. If the non-express lanes are
flowing at a comparable rate to that of the express lanes,
there will tend to be a small number of violators. However,
if the express lane traffic is flowing more smoothly than the
non-express lanes, the number of violations will tend to
increase.
Unfortunately, enforcement can tend to be counter-productive
because stopping cars during rush hour can slow down traffic
considerably. This will be especially true for express lanes
because in most cases, the left lane is the one chosen as
the express lane. • One way to circumvent the problem is to .

As discussed in Alan M. Voorhees, 1971, the left lane is chosen
because it tends to result in the least number of lane changes.
V-15
-------
is to give the impression there is strict legal enforcement.
This can be done either through a public information program
or by having frequent patrolling of the thoroughfare during
rush hours without actually stopping many cars.
V-16
-------
A.
VI. SUBSIDIZATION OF MASS TRANSIT
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
The legislative subsidization of urban mass transit has
evolved over the last twenty five years. In that period, the
sponsoring agency has passed through the Housing and Home
Financing Agency, the Department of Housing and Urban Development,
and finally to the Department of Transportation and the Urban
Mass Transit Authority within that Department. Just as the
sponsoring agency has changed considerably, so has that level
of subsidization, from 75 million dollars in 1961 to 1.1.7 billion
dollars in 1974. This evolution is summarized in Figure IV-1.
As background for the types of impacts and contracts involved
in mass transit subsidization, a description of the legislative
in Figure IV-1 follows.
. In 1961, Congress approved a pilot mass transportation
assistance program for public, state and local bodies. $25
million was allocated by the Housing Act of 1961 for a limited
program of mass transit demonstration project grants and technical
assistance funding. An additional $50 million in borrowing
authority was granted to assist local capital investment programs.
These funds were first administered by the Housing and Home
Finance Agency which later was to be called the Department of
Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
The funds originally allocated by the Housing Act of 1961
were considerably expanded by the Urban Mass Transpostation
Act of 1964. This Act allocated $75 million in 1965, $150
million in 1966 and $150 million in 1967 to provide a total of
$375 million in federal grants to urban mass transit.
In 1966, Congress authorized the following supplemental
transit programs: 1) Technical study grants for systems
design and engineering studies to improve transit management
and operations, 2) grants for advanced training of mangerial
personnel in local transit systems,. .and 3) grants to institutions"
of higher education for graduate research and development, and
VI-1
-------
5
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58
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VI-2
-------
training programs. The major elements of this program were
transferred from HUD to the Department of Transportation in
1968.
1970 brought further expansion of these mass transit programs
with the passage of the Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1970.
This new measure provided $3.1 billion to be allocated over a
five year period to upgrade, extend, improve and develop new
bus, rapid transit and commuter rail systems through programs
of financial aid to local public bodies and through directed
research development and demonstration efforts. Such programs
include: .
- capital improvement grants to public bodies
up to 2/3 of the net cost of new system equip-
. ment and modernization of transit facilities.
- demonstration,, research and development projects.
- service .development grants. • .
Local matching funds must be provided from non-federal sources
and may be provided by local private transit operators as well
as governmental agencies.
Congress,in making its 1970 commitment, clearly expressed
its intentions to make a total of $10 billion available for
urban transit improvements to be distributed through 1982.
The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1973 further expanded
potential transit financing for rail and bus mass transportation
improvements by apportioning $800 million of formerly exclusive
highway related funds of the Highway Trust Fund to mass transit.
It stipulates that federal highway funds may be used for the . .
construction of exclusive or preferential bus lanes, highway
traffic control devices, bus passenger loading areas and
facilities (including shelters), and fringe and transportation
corridor parking for mass transportation passengers.
Originally monies for federal subsidization of operating
expenses of urban mass transit were earmarked in this bill as
VI-3
-------
presented to Congress. However this provision was deleted when •
the bill was passed by Congress. , , : -
In the fall of 1973, recognizing the need for operating sub-
sidies, Congress allocated $1.6 billion in federal subsidies for
operating expenses of urban mass transit stipulating that state
and local bodies charge 1/2 fare during the off-peak hours for
elderly and. handicapped passengers. Distributed in 1974 and
1975 these subsidies also provided new equipment and new station
construction at a federal share of 80%.
Also at this time, the Federal Internal Revenue Code was
enacted to exempt state and local governmental bodies from
various types of excise taxes. . . • • .
The Unified Transportation Assistance Program was signed
into law with modifications in November, 1974 as the National
Mass Transportation Assistance Act of 1974. This act consolidated
two separate and inflexible capital programs (Federal-Aid
Highway and UMTA programs). Unifying these federal programs
and expanding the ranges of funding uses encourage better
planning and decision making at the local level and also allows
urbanized areas to be assured of federal funding sources over
a period of years premitting long-term local planning. As
passed, the bill provides $3.9 billion for operating subsidies
and $7.8 billion in capital grants to be distributed over a six
year period (five hundred million is designated for public
transportation in non-urbanized areas). Unfortunately, Congress
failed to provide an integrated and comprehensive federal policy
for the transportation needs and instead chose only to approve
a grants program.
B. CONSTRAINTS • ..'
The one most important factor which has inhibited funds for
mass transit has been increased attractiveness of the automobile;
The American public has shown preference for the automobile over
mass transit for a variety of reasons: •
- the increased mobility provided by automobile
-. travel. . •
- the increased flexibility in travel times; fixed
schedules do not have to be adhered to.
VI-4
-------
- convenience of storage for parcels, baggage^etcv-^" " -*
- the satisfaction of owning one's own car.
- the pleasure of driving one's own car.
- privacy.
- cost ranges under certian conditions.
This preference for automobiles has been reflected by the
overwhelming emphasis on road construction at the expense of
mass transit. This emphasis can be seen to have started as
far back as 1944, with the enactment of the Federal-Aid Highway
Act of 1944 which established the Federal-Aid Highway Program.
This program funded 50% of all highway construction. In 1956,
the federal government opted to bear 90% of the $41 billion
Interstate Highway System under which $20 billion was earmarked
for roads in urban areas. This system provided cities with major
help in solving the transportation problems which arose with
the rapid growth of the suburbs. .
In the meantime very little money was allocated to urban
mass transit, the opinion being that mass transit should main-
tain itself by the revenues received from the fare box. Public
transportation deteriorated as rapidly as the Highway Trust
Fund swelled. Finally, in 1973, the National Mass Transportation
Assistance Act untied the Highway Trust Fund purse strings and
federal aid became readily available for mass transit. Still
political reluctance towards federal subsidization of mass
transit operating expenses has been widened in Congress.
Besides the difficulties associated with mass transit receiving
as much as possible of total transportation budget, there are
also constraints on the total budget allocations. This is important
not only on the federal level but, with the matching funds concept,
also, in the local level. This has become an even more significant
problem in recent times because of the slow down in the economy :
and in the resulting tax revenues.
VI-5
-------
'Federal capital grants are geared to provide 2/3 of the total
project cost, the remaining 1/3 becomes a local responsibility
which can be funded wholly or in part by the state. Generally
the matching responsibility is fulfilled in one of four ways:
1) annual cash outlay, 2) saving funds out of current operations
for the future, 3} borrowing the required amount, and 4) applying
for federal or state grants. '.• .
Depending on the type of ownership of a particular transit
system various funding sources can be activitated to cover all . -
or part of the matching requirements of federal grants. Public
ownership of a transit system premits access to capital and
revenue financing mechanisms that offer large amounts of money.
Municipal ownership, the oldest force of public participation
in transit financing, as a branch of the city government, receives
an appropriation of city funds and the support of the city's
credit to'meet its operating and capital needs.
A public transit authority allows a transit system to
extend service beyond municipal and county boundaries and gives
the transit system access to certain types of financing including
revenue bond financing. This level of public ownership gives
the transit authority direct access to the state budget.
The highest level of public transit ownership is the transit
district which is established through state legislature. A
transit district is authorized to acquire, own, operate and
maintain mass transit facilities or to subsidize their operation
may issue revenues bonds and levy a property tax within the dis-
trict. The advantage of a transit district over a transit
authority is that a district can levy specific taxes for operating
and capital expenditures and may issue general obligation bonds
whereas an authority can only issue revenue bonds secured by
fare tax revenues.
VI-6
-------
.VII. REVISED WORK HOURS
A. INTRODUCTION
Since the surge of traffic congestion in the sixties, planners
and politicians, sociologists and economists, environmentalists
and engineers have searched for an innovative program to afford
substantial traffic relief in the CBD. The programs developed
vary from the compressed {three and four-day work weeks) to stag-
gered work hours, flexitimes and variable time. All of these
programs relieve congestion to varying extents and all bear econ-
omic, social and political impacts..
B. COMPRESSED WORK WEEK
1. Description
The programs which are most popular in the United States
and also have the least overall impact on daily peak hour con-
gestion are the fixed hour three-day, 36-hour, four-day, 40-hour
and four day, 32-hour work weeks. Sometimes referred to as the
compressed work week, it has essentially the same 9-5 opening and
closing times on the three or four days employees work as the stan-
dard work' week. These programs offer traffic relief only on those
days of the long weekends which have previously fallen during the
week. Most of the benefits of these programs lie in their economic
and social impacts.
2. Transportation Impacts
The compressed work week will have effects on the trans-
portation industry because of the reduced number of trips and
possible mode shifts. The reduction in the number of trips
can be estimated fairly easily by reducing the number of person
trips by 20% in the case of the workers on the four day work
week and 40% in the case of the three day work week. The
problem becomes one of estimating how the commuter trips will be
distributed over the work days. ,
VII-1
-------
The issue of mode shifts is a more complex issue.
The compressed work week may reduce the use of either carpools
or public transit. If the worker is required to travel at off
commuter peak hours, which would occur on a ten or twelve hour
day, he may not be able to carpool because the number of workers
with the same hours may be reduced. In addition, he may not be'
able to use mass transit because there may not be frequent
enough service to make it convenient. It is felt that the
hindrance to carpooling is more difficult to overcome than the
hindrance to the use of mass transit.
The public transit industry will tend to experience
reduced costs because of the more efficient use of mass transit,
vehicles and labor. The increased length of the working day
will spread out the rush hour peaks because a greater portion
of the labor force will be traveling either earlier or later
than usual. This would enable the mass transit service to
achieve higher load factors because the number of commuters
at peak travel times would be reduced.
The additional non-working day will also reduce
operating costs by allowing for maintenance during the work
week. The total number of cars required for use will be
dictated by the rush hour traffic during the work days not
affected by the compressed work week, either Monday or
Firday. On those days which require fewer vehicles, the
vehicles not in use can be serviced. At the present time,
for maintenance to be done during the work week, vehicles
would have to be taken out of service during a work day
commuter load. >
3. Economic Impacts
The major economic impacts of staggered work hours
can be divided into two basic categories: the impacts on
the worker himself, namely commuter costs, and the impacts
VII-2
-------
on the cost of business operations. In essence, the impact
on the worker himself can be considered a direct impact on
the cost of living, whereas the impact on the cost of business
operations can be considered an indirect impact. The
change in costs to businesses will have an indirect impact
on the consumer through subsequent changes in retail prices.
j •.
A major change in costs to the consumer are those
associated with traveling to work fewer times. This savings
would simply be the average cost of a commuter trip multiplied
by the number of trips saved. However, there are other
secondary impacts. For example, a compressed work week would
result in a redistribution of expenditures, namely added
recreational expenditures. Although the total income would
remain constant, this would be considered an economic, as well
as social impact.
The compressed work week may cause changes in commuter
costs by reducing the use of either carpools or public transit.
As explained in the discussion of transportation impacts,
traveling at offpeak hours tends to reduce carpooling potential
and mass transit convenience. Offsetting the possibility of
increased travel costs are the savings of costs incurred by
the public transit industries resulting from more efficient
utilization of their vehicles and labor.
The impacts on the cost of operation to the industry
will depend on the industry and the extent of implementation.
One important negative effect the impact of the increased
length of the workday would have is on productivity. In boring
monotonous jobs, or jobs where heat, noise, heavy exertion or
manual dexterity are required, fatigue seems to be a major
drawback. The long work day results in the creation of
safety hazards and reduction in both the efficiency and level
of production of those industries. :

bun's Review, July 1972.
VII-3
-------
The issue of productivity becomes more important if
the total number of hours worked is reduced in addition to the
number of work days. A four day, thirty-two hour week would be
such a situation. This thinking reflects labor's desire for
higher employment which would come from a shorter work week.
Many will argue that both productivity and efficiency will
i
increase, this thesis being based on the premise that Friday
is a low productivity day and that workers will increase
output during the other four days to make up for the added
day off. This effect is offset by the fact that starting
work after a three day layoff would be inefficient, the low
productivity days on Fridays would occur on Thursdays, and the
days that are worked would not be as efficient. '
The other major impact on operating costs are the non-
labor costs resulting from fewer operating day's. With those
industrial processes reguireing significant start-up costs,
there would be cost savings resulting from the fact that
fewer start-ups would be required per hour of production.
It is not clear what the impacts would be if the entire.facility
would be closed for an additional day. All the costs which are
a direct function of the hours of operation would not change if
the total number of production hours did not change. The costs
which are a function of the number of days of operation would
be reduced. Such costs are the additional energy costs of in-
creasing the internal temperature of the facility after being
reduced over night and the janitorial costs of cleaning up
after a day's work. The extent of these costs impacts would
have to be analyzed on a case by case basis.
Another area of cost savings is maintenance. If main-
tenance could be done in the work week, the labor expended
could be employed at regular rates and not at overtime rates
which occurs when maintenance is done on weekends.
VII-4
-------
The extent to which each of these effects will occur
will depend very much on the situation in which it was applied.
A survey of 1056 firms in the United States and Canada was con- •
ducted with respect to compressed work week programs and the
following conclusions were drawn:
143 firms had compressed work week programs
13 tried and discontinued the program
- 237 considered the program
663 had not considered the program
an estimated 100,000 employees in 700 to 1000 firms,
government agencies or organizations are trying the
plan . .
11% of the 4-40 companies reported higher labor costs
38% reported reductions in expenses
- production increases accompanied the switch-over
from 5-60 to 4-40 reported 62% .
3% report productivity declines
- . 66% reported efficiency boost
3% reported efficiency down
A rise in profits reported by 51% of the 4-day firms.
4% said profits off.
8% of the firms trying the shorter week said it failed
1. out of 4 firms found problems in scheduling
- 8 firms - fatigue, chief disadvantage
Three specific cases are as follows:
2
1) Thomas Lipton and Sons adopted the 3-36 plan in response
to an urgent need to increase production. The results:
- production hours increased 16%
quality control maintained
optimization of equipment use realized.

American Management Association, 1972.
Dun's Review, July 1971. . .
VII-5
-------
2) Scovill Manufacturing General Hose and Coupling which
manufactures automobile air conditioning units adopted
the 4-38 plan. Results:
- piece production up 8-10%
absenteeism cut 50%.
3) . Samsonite Company, Murfreesboro, Canada, with all 870
employees on 4-40 plan:
absenteeism down
quality personnel up
production up .
employee turnover down.
The basic conclusion to be drawn is that, although a
relatively small number of firms have adopted compressed work
programs in some form, those that have done so have tended to
experience both reduction in expenses and increased production.
This has resulted in increased profits for 51% of the firms.adopting
compressed work week programs. One of the reasons such a small
number of firms have adopted a compressed work week is that most
businessmen who have not tried it feel that it would increase
their costs. However, only 11 percent of the firms with compressed
2
work weeks experienced higher costs. . .
4. Social_Impacts
The. most significant social impacts emanate from the
additional non-work days and the decreased time at home during
work days. These effects tend to significantly change the home .
lives of workers. In fact, .
"the commonplace adoption of more flexible
work schedules may well foreshadow the .
emergence of a new leisure class in America
and in other super-industrial nations of the
world, and may further signifiy the advance of
even more^ dramatic changes in the prevailing
pattern of our social fabric.",

•Hj.S. News and World Report, November 6, 1972.
2
American. Management Association, 1972.
3Ibid. .' . . ,
VII-6 " ' •
-------
The most significant effect is the added number of non-
work days. This would lead to.a regular three day weekend and
its accompanying advantages. This tends to increase travel
and other more time consuming recreational activities. Late night
recreation, now reserved by many for Friday and Saturday nights, can
be extended to a third night.
5. Constraints • ! '
The major constraints oh the success of the compressed
work week is its acceptability to the labor unions arid the
attitudes of management. The major labor issue lies in the hourly
wages after eight hours. After the long fight for an eight hour .
day, labor is most reluctant to give into a longer day at straight
pay. Joseph Cointin, a regional official of the Machinists Union
in St. Louis maintains that management wants to make higher
profits off their labor by saving the expenses of opening the
olant for the fifth day and by cutting overtime costs to the
bone.
Those laws which make up the foundation of labor's
stand are: the Davis-Bacon Act, passed in 1931; the Walsh-
Healey Public Contracts Act, passed in 1936; and the Fair Labor
Standards Act, passed in 1938. The Davis-Bacon arid the Walsh-
Healey Acts cover the same labor provisions. The rough dividing
line between them is that the Davis-Bacon Act deals with the
construction indsutry and the Walsh-Healey Act with the manu-
facturing industry. Section 1, part C of the Walsh-Healey Act
provides:
"That no person employed by the contractor in
the manufacture or furnishing of the materials,
supplies, articles or equipment used in the per-
formance of the contract [in excess of $10,000] (sic)
shall be permitted to work in excess of 8 hours in any
one day or in excess of 40 hours in any one week!"-

•^J.S. News and World Report, May 3, 1972.
2
SNA, Labor Relations Reporter, pp.- LRX 8301-8302, 1974.
VII-7
-------
The Secretary of Labor by the provisions given him in
Section 6, granted a blanket exemption from the absolute-limita-
tion on daily and weekly hours of work imposed in Section I/ .
Part C of the Act provided that time and one-half is paid for
all hours worked in excess of 8 hours in one day or 40 hours in
one week.
I ,.
The modifications to these acts which would be required
in order to allow for the implementation of the compressed work •
week are approved by organized labor. A basic objection involves
working a greater than eight hour day and not being paid overtime.
However, on a localized individual level there does not
seem to be any major resistance to the four-day work week. Only one
company reporting in a survey conducted by the American Management
2
Association reported difficulty in its relations with their union.
The one problem did not involve the union contract but union dis-
satisfaction with the arrangement. After the four day work week
was implemented, the union became satisfied with the new work hours.
One of the reasons for this low level of labor dissatisfaction as
manifested in the AMA survey is that those companies which have
adopted it are small principally non-urban manufacturing, service,
and retail firms which are not highly unionized.
There is also concern shown for the safety of the worker.
"Technological change has created
more hazardous materials, tools and .
products in this generation than in
all of recorded history. ;
The idea that the Federal Government
should endorse increased daily exposure
to those tools and add to the daily in- ; .
halations within questionable and hazardous
working environments without adequate detail
on mental and physical problems of changing
8 hours to 10 hours is obscene."o - S.Frank
Raftery, General President of the International
Brotherhood of Painters and Allied Trades.
BNA, Labor Relations Reporter, pp. LRX 8301-8302, 1974.
'American Management Association, 1972, p.32. ,-.
Department of Labor Proceedingsi January 1972.'-
VII-8
-------
Organized labor also feels .that labor should share in the
benefits to the company resulting from the implementation of the
compressed work week:
"It [the 4-40 proposal (sic)] permits [management
(sic)] more intensive utilization of capital equip-
ment, and thus spreads the capital investment/job.
It also spreads both the fixed and indirect costs
over more operating hours. The end result is greater
productivity and higher profits.
The IBEW believes workers are entitled to a share
of these increased profits and that premium pay for
work after eight hours is an excellent assurance of
this share."1 -Thomas A. Hannigan, Director of
Research and Education for the International
Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.
There is also concern by labor involved in seasonal
business, such as the construction industry. It is felt that a
four day forty hour week would tend to suppress the extent of
overtime a worker could get. This objection would be alleviated
if stipulations are clear on overtime pay on a forty hour week
basis rather than an eight hour day basis.
Managements' attitudes towards the compressed work week
are also important. As discussed in the economics section-, most
businessmen who have not adopted a compressed work week feel such
a plan would increase their operating costs and decrease pro-
ductivity. These have been shown to be misconceptions based
2
on recent experiences. Therefore,, a public information program
should alleviate the constraint on the implementation of four
day work weeks. -
G. STAGGERED WORK HOURS
1. Description
The staggered work hours alternative proposes substantial
relief from traffic congestion in the CBD by varying the opening
Department of Labor Proceedings, January.1972,
'American Management Association, 1972.
VII-9
-------
times of firms 15 to 60 minutes earlier or later than the standard
starting time. This proposal enables the city to stretch out"its
peak hour demand on its transportation facilities. • This, in turn,
reduces congestion, automobile pollution and energy consumption.
It is important to note that for this concept to be '
achievable on a wide scale, a certain amount of coordination
amongst businesses is required. For example, restaurants serving
the employees would have to spread out their peak lunch time
service to accommodate the greater variance in lunch hours.
Businesses which deal with each other constantly are further
examples of the need for a coordinated, staggered work hour .=
plan.
2. Impact on Traffic Patterns
The implementation of staggered or flexible work hours
is a complex process with several interacting impacts on travel
patterns. An accurate assessment of the advisability; of adopting
either of these measures cannot be made without identifying all of
these impacts simultaneously. The various impacts associated with
energy consumption which must be considered are:
0 reduction in traffic congestion resulting from
smoothing of peak work hours '
0 impediments to carpooling
0 reduction in use of mass transit
These three interacting effects are illustrated in flow
chart form in Figure VII-1. As staggered (or flexible) work hours
are implemented, the peak traffic flow is smoothed and three
impacts are felt. First, the average speed of traffic over the
rush hours increases. Workers are able to arrive at their places
of employment closer to the beginning of their work day with a
shorter travel time. This stimulates the use of automobiles
instead of mass transit.
VII-10
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The second effect is that people who use mass transit
at peak commuter hours may be forced to take mass transit either
before or- after the existing rush hours when there is lower
frequency of service. This would also serve to encourage the
use of automobiles. It should be noted that this effect is not
as significant an effect on the use qf mass transit as is the
increased speed of traffic. It is felt that mass transit service
would adapt to the new traffic patterns and increase service in
the early and later rush hour time periods. It can also be argued
that by reducing the peak mass transit usage, mass transit becomes
less crowded and therefore, more desirable.
The third major effect is that people would tend to find
it more difficult to carpool. This is due to the fact that with
more people leaving for work at different hours, the number of
commuters available for carpooling decreases.
3. Economic Impacts
The primary direct economic impacts of staggered work
hours are those associated with changes in traffic patterns.
The indirect impacts incurred by industry are the administrative
costs incurred by the firms adopting the staggered work hours
and possible changes in productivity. The extent of the trans-
portation related impacts will depend on the extent to which
workers shift their modes of transportation. There will also be
more change due to the increased mileage efficiencies of auto-
mobiles due to decongested traffic.
In order to evaluate the importance of the administrative
costs, the significance of such costs associated with the four
day work week were considered. Cost increases were not considered
a principal disadvantage by those responding to the AMA survey.
Since the administrative costs of a staggered work hour program

American Management Association, 1972.
VII-12
-------
are expected to be lower than those for the four day work week,
it is felt that staggered work hours will not involve significant
cost increases.
^* Social Impacts .
Social impacts generated by the staggered work week are
fairly wide ranging. Adoption of this program would require
customers/ particularly in service and retail industries, to be
adaptable to new service and shopping hours.
Perhaps the most positive impact generated would be that
of improved employee morale and disposition owing to the sub-
stantial alleviation of human aggravation and irritability due
to congestion at peak hours. Offsetting this advantage to some
degree would be the inconvenience associated with revised work
hours. On the other hand, many workers could be more satisfied
with either earlier or later starting times *
5. Constraints
The major constraint in the implementation of staggered
work hours is the ability of industry to alter the work hours
for portions of their work force. This is an extremely complex
issue to evaluate because the ability of any one company to
stagger their work hours will depend on the level of staggered
work hours of related industries as well as the operational
structure of their own company.. The operation of a company
depends on its suppliers, competitors, customers and business
services, such as banks. As a general rule, as the number of
businesses which have staggered work hours increases, the overall
feasibility of staggered work hours increases.
The major source of resistance on the part of business to
staggered work hours in its beginning stages is primarily lack
of experience with the concept. In many cases, where the business
operation is running'smoothly, there tends to be a resistance to
any change, even if that change has potential benefits. To over-
come this initial .resistance, it is important that a public'
VII-13
-------
relations program be conducted to convince businessmen that
staggered work hours programs are desirable. In.Philadelphia,
the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) has " .
worked with the Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce to stimulate
staggered work hours. This has resulted in the participation
of 12% of the CBD workers in the staggered work hours program.
The employers that have adopted staggered work hour programs in
Philadelphia have not experienced any reduction in productivity
and are satisfied with-the program.
Two other potential constraints are those related to
personnel and regulations. Neither of these are considered to
be major problems. Recent experiences have shown that employees
prefer staggered work hours because of the reduction in trans-
portation problems. As far as regulations are concerned, it was
found in the New York study that "governmental regulations are
2
not expected to interfere with work staggering."
D. FLEXIBLE TIME
1. Description
Flexible time is a self-regulated system of staggered
work hours. It allows the employee to choose his own working
hours within certain constraints. First, he must work a
specified number of hours during a given time period. This could
mean eight hours a day or 168 hours a month. The other constraint
is that he be at work for certain core hours during the day. In
essence, this guarantees that the entire work force be in
attendance for a set number of hours during the work day. For
example, the Social Security Administration in Washington has
implemented a plan whereby each employee must be in the office
for 8 1/2 hours each day and may begin work as early as 6:30 a.m.
or as late as 9:30 a.m. The work day will end therefore between

Personal communication with the DVRPC Personnel.
Cohen, 1968, pg. 141.
VII-14
-------
3:00 adn 6:00 p.m. This means that all the workers are in the
office between the hours of 9:30 a.m. and 3:00 p.m.
An example of a less stringent plan is one in operation
in Switzerland. Workers must report to work between 7:00 and
9:00 a.m., eat lunch between 11:30 and 1:00 and leave between
4:00 and 6:00 p.m. The employees may work as little as.5 1/2
hours in a day, or as much as 10 1/2 'hours as long as he works
a certain number of hours a month. He is allowed a range of
plus or minus ten hours on the total number of hours he works
in a month.
A variant of flexible time is variable working hours.
Under variable working hours, a core time, which is the time
during which an employee must be on his job, is not required.
Therefore, the employees may work whenever they wish. This
concept is subject to varying constraints depending on the
type of job.
An example of this system is a German meter assembly
plant, Hengstler Glutzeit Company, which allows the employees
to schedule their own work days. Since this is a manufacturing
plant, the employees had to be able to fill in at all positions
on the line. This resulted in a 400% increase in output over
production before the variable working hours concept was
instituted. ' .
Since some level of management is required at all times
in most cases, management personnel cannot take advantage of the
flexible hours to the same degree as the working force. Usually,
management sets up a system among themselves to insure coverage
at all times.
2. Impacts on Travel Patterns
It is interesting to note that the concept of flexible
hours was implemented in order to relieve traffic congestion*
This occurred at Merserschmitt-Bolkow-Blolin plan in Germany
VII-15
-------
where there was a significant traffic problem during rush hours.
Although the highway system leading to the plan was adequate,
the local city streets immediately surrounding it were not.
Flexible work hours were instituted to alleviate this problem. -
The impacts in travel patterns resulting from flexible
time will be similar to those resulting from staggered work
hours. The peak travel flow will be "spread out resulting in
decongested traffic with possible increases in the use of
automobiles, THe extent to which the peak travel flow will be
spread out will depend on the importance of travel time in the
work force's selection of travel times. If many of the workers
choose to select their work hours to minimize travel time, the
peak travel flow will be reduced to a greater degree than if
workers tended to select their work hours based on other criteria,
such as coordination with family routines. Recent experience
indicates that the traffic situation is the main criterion in
certain areas. -
"For the most part, they (the workers at' the
Western Program Center of the Social Security
Administration) wanted to avoid the traffic
congestion that plagues the area in and around
San Francisco."1
Unlike staggered work hours, flexible work hours can
stimulate carpooling. A system of staggered work hours tends
to suppress carpooling because there is no flexibility on the
part of the worker to choose his travel times. It would be
impossible to carpool with a worker on a different shift. On
the other hand, in the case of flexible work hours, workers can
coordinate their schedules to make carpooling feasible. The
use of mass transit also tends to be stimulated because the
importance of schedules and frequency of service is not as im-
portant. The worker, as long as he arrives at work within the

-"•Oasis, July 1974.
VII-16
-------
acceptable range of times, starts work as soon as he arrives.
Therefore, he does not have to use the mass transit service so
as to minimize the time between his arrival and the start of work.
3. Economic Impacts .
The costs associated with flexible time are not major.
There will be differences in transportation costs similar to
those experienced for staggered work hours. There will be re-
duced costs of operating an automobile because of increased
speed of traffic and reduced costs of mass transit because of
increased load factors. The extent of the impacts will depend
on the extent to which travel patterns change.
There are potentially significant beneficial economic
impacts to be realized by businesses resulting from decreased
lateness and increased productivity. Lateness is by definition
eliminated as long as the workers arrive within the prescribed
range of times. Productivity tends to increase because of re-
duced absenteeism and because of greater employee satisfaction
resulting from their ability to control their work hours. There
is a positive incentive to make the system work. A survey con-
ducted in Germany showed that 17 of 30 firms experienced increased
productivity of the workers.
4. Social Impacts •
The social impacts associated with flexible work hours
are numerous and, in most all cases, beneficial. In fact, it is
widely believed that such a system will receive such wide accep-
tance that "...the current trend toward flexible hours would
virtually halt consideration of the shorter work week as the
primary alternative to the 5-day week."
The basic advantage of flexible work hours is that indi-
viduals can coordinate their work schedule with their non-
professional life styles. This is especially true for working
women who have difficulty taking care of their families and home
responsibilities while working full time. It is also possible for

Alvar O. Elbing, e_t al, January/February 1974.

VII-17
-------
husbands and wives to coordinate their schedule so as to make it
more convenient for both.
The decreased travel times resulting from smoothed peak
hours travel will provide more free time for recreation and
other activities.
5. Constraints
Since labor is overwhelmingly in favor of flexible time,
the barrier to widespread implementation of flexible time is
management. Flexible time is not an easy concept to implement.
"Implementation sets enormous challenges
for organizations and before adopting the
system, U.S. managers need to be convinced '
of its worth for their own companies."1
The major problem tbat must be overcome is one of coor-
dinating the workers so as to insure smooth, efficient operation.
Flexible time is most efficient in situations where individuals
work more or less independently, as for example in research
oriented operations. It becomes more difficult in other companies
such as manufacturing facilities and service establishments. In
order to implement flexible time in manufacturing facilities,
work-in-process inventory tends to be increased to bring about .
independence among the workers. It is interesting to note that
this increased work-in-process inventory is offset somewhat by
the fact that workers tend to keep a reserve of work hours at
any given time. This occurs because workers tend to try to stay
ahead of their pay so that in case something comes up and they .
want to take additional time off, they can do so without for-
feiting pay or sick days. This results in work performed which
does not have to be paid immediately.
One alternative to increasing work-in-process inventory
is to train the workers in the full range of activities. Thus, a
worker coming in at tidd hours can work on the product at different

Alvar O. Elbing, et al, January/February 1974. .
VI1-18

-------
stages of completion. This tends to be more complicated than
increasing the work-in-process inventory.
The service industries present another type of problem.
This type of industry requires personal contact with the customers
so that erratic presence on the job could tend to hurt business.
There are two basic remedies to this'problem. First, the core
hours could be prominently displayed in advertising and letter-
heads so that clients know the best time to contact the company.
The other alternative, which is more complicated is to make more
of the workers aware of more clients. Recent experience with an
insurance company in Germany has shown that agents tend to become
more involved in other agent's clients because they realize their
exposure to their own clients would be decreased.
Many workers find it very useful to have time during the
day, the non-core hours, when there are greatly reduced numbers
of client contacts. This time period can be reserved for paper-
work with relatively few interruptions.
There is also reluctance on the part of management to
implement flexible time in large organizations. The idea of
having a loose system of attendance for large numbers of workers .
tends to concern managers. There are experiences which contra-
dict this such as a large department store in Germany with over
100 salesclerks and a supervisory staff of three. One of the
reasons flexible time tends to work in large companies is that
labor wants to see the system work and they therefore become
more conscientious.
One form of proof of the feasibility and desirability of
flexible time is the level of participation in Germany. The
German Industrial Institute predicts that 50% of the white
collar workers in Germany (6 million workers) will be in
2
flexible hours by the end of 1975. This indicates that once
the initial reluctance to adopt flexible time is overcome in the
United States, the potential for flexible time is tremendous.
Alvar O. Elbing, et al, January 1974.
'Ibid.
VII-19
-------
-------
VIII. PARKING MANAGEMENT
A. BACKGROUND
Parking control is a versatile and powerful tool for the
management of automobile travel'. It can be used in a negative
manner, by making single occupancy automobiles less convenient
or more expensive, or in a positive manner, by making the alter-
native means of travel more attractive. Reducing the number of
parking spaces and increasing the parking fees are examples of
the former approach, whereas special parking for car poolers
and fringe parking are examples of the latter approach.
Parking management must be applied carefully and judiciously
for two reasons. First, parking in and of itself is not a mode
of transportation. People do not use parking for transportation
but only as a necessary component of automobile travel. Other
transportation measures, such as mass transit subsidization and
express lanes, promote travel modes so they provide a
alternative means of transportation.
The other reason earful application of parking policy is
important is that it is a potent tool. In particular, reducing
parking spaces can, with certainty, reduce single occupancy
automobile travel. The efficiency of the measure is not subject
to .personal preferences, as improvements in mass transit is,
but is absolute. The individual cannot drive his car to work
if he cannot park it. __
Just as. the impacts on automobile travel can be so potent,
the resultant economic and social effects are also potent.
An imprudent parking policy can economically devastate a
business area and significantly change the lifestyles of a
good number of people. ,
VIII-1
-------
One important aspect of this problem is to use the various
parking policies in conjunction with other policies and not
alone. If parking spaces are to be reduced, alternative
means of transportation should be upgraded. This would
take the form of improved mass transit, such as modernized
vehicles or increased service, express lanes for buses or
stimuli to car pooling, such as matching services. If
fringe parking is provided, the mass transit system should
be upgraded to increase its appeal or, at the minimum, to
increase the frequency of service to accommodate the increased
patronage. If special parking for car pooling is implemented
at the expense of other parking, car pool matching services
should be provided so that the special parking will be utilized.
Since parking control policies should not be applied in a
vacuum, the analysis of their effects will emphasize the joint
application of the various parking control policies with the other
policies considered in this report: express lanes, mass transit
subsidization, and revised work hours.
B. TYPES OF IMPACTS
1. Traffic Patterns
It is virtually impossible to generalize the impacts
on traffic patterns resulting from parking management policies
beyond the fact that the number of automobiles in use will be
reduced. The impacts of such a reduction will depend on the
policy chosen and the type of area affected. In the case of
reduced parking spaces and incrased parking fees, the relative
increase in carpooling versus mass transit will depend on the
existing transportation system and the density of the population
and places of employment. If mass transit is readily available
it can be expected that many of the people traveling in single
occupancy automobiles will be diverted to mass transit. . The
opposite is true in an area with little available mass transit.
VIII-2
-------
Fringe parking will result in increased mass transit
and no change or possibly a reduction in carpools. On the
other hand, preferential parking for car poolers will increase
at the expense of single occupancy automobiles with minor
reduction in the use of mass transit. The impact on traffic
flow in any of the above cases will be decreased traffic
. i
congestion.
2. Energy Impacts
The impacts on energy consumption will depend very
much on the impacts on travel patterns. In general, there
should be an energy savings resulting from any of the parking
management policies considered. The magnitude of the changes
will depend on the relative diversion to mass transit versus
car pools. Since the use of car pools results in a small
incremental energy consumption resulting from the ^extra distance
required to pick up the car poolers, there tends to be a
greater reduction in energy consumption from the use of car
pools versus than the use of mass transit.
There are also energy savings resulting from the in-
creased speed of traffic.
3. Environmental Impacts
There will be a reduction in air pollutants in propor-
tion to the reduction in emissions from automobiles and an
increase in the emissions from mass transit. In the case of
rail transit, the emissions will be generated from stationary
sources as well.
There are also land use impacts resulting from the
construction of new fringe parking lots.
A rough estimate of this increased distance is 5% of the
normal trip distance (see MATHEMATICA, 1974).
VIII-3
-------
4. Economic Impacts
There are several levels of economic impacts. First
there are changes in the cost of transportation resulting from
the selection of different modes of travel. In the case of
increased parking fees, those who continue driving to work
will experience increased cost. It should be noted that reduc-
tion in available parking spaces may1'force people who are not
convenient to public transportation to use it. This may result .
in increased travel costs because several different bus or rail
routes may be required.
Transportation industries will be more directly affected.
There will also be changes in the revenue of the transportation
industry corresponding to changes in consumer expenditures for
mass transportation.
Also/ parking lot owners could be .severely affected. If
fees are allowed to rise and the city does not tax the increase,
parking lot owners could realize greater profits. If they are
required to curtail operations without a commensurate increase
in fees, they would lose revenues.
The broader economic impact on the business life of the
community could eventually have the greatest economic impacts.
By making parking inconvenient for workers, business may
eventually move to an area, probably outside the urban area,
with convenient parking. This would affect not only places
of employment but would have an adverse affect on the retail .
establishments patronized by those employees. The retail '.
establishments would also be adversely affected if shopping
trips are reduced as a result of inconvenient parking.
These are conditions under which decreased parking can
serve as a stimulus to business. If, by reducing parking spaces,
the speed of traffic in the general area of the central busines
district is increased, businesses which have convenient parking
will benefit from the increased accessibility by automobile.
VIII-4
-------
This type of situation prevails if a parking policy
is implemented that decreases the available spaces to commuters
but increases the spaces for shoppers. This can be achieved
by not allowing parking until after the rush hours or by pro-
hibiting cars from being parked in one place more than a few
hours.
5. Constraints .
The primary constraints on the implementation of parking
management policies are political. As experienced recently in
Boston and by the recent reduction in EPA's power to improve or
support parking management measures, the American public has a
strong desire and/or need to drive their cars and barriers to
this desire imposed by government will not be well received.
This problem could be reduced by implementing complementary
programs such as express lanes. In addition to resistance
on the part of commuters, there is strong resistance on the
part of businesses and retailers, as a result of the potential
deleterious economic impacts.,
The vehicle for this resistance to parking management
is legislation prohibiting the implementation of parking
policies. In some cases; legislation has been passed to set
as the maximum parking fees the operating costs involved in
maintaining the meters.
lx
VIII-5
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APPENDIX A
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Brian Berry, Department of Geology, University of Chicago,
Land Use, Urban Form and Environmental Quality, 1974.

Jack Faucett Associates, Project Independence and Energy
Conservation; Transportation Sectors, submitted to the
Council on Environmental Quality, July 1, 1974.

Department of-Commerce, U.S. Statistical Abstract, 1974.
* '
American Transit Association, Transit Fact Book, 1972.

Eric Hirst, Energy Intensiveness of Passenger and Freight
Transport Modes, April 1973.

Chase Econometrics Associates, Future Automobile Consumption,
Submitted to the Council on Environmental Quality, 1974.

American Association of Railroads, Commutation Traffic and
Revenue of Industrial Class I Railroads, 1972.

Department of Transportation, Nationwide Personal Transportation
, Study, 1972.

MATHEMATICA, Analysis and Synthesis of EPA Energy Conservation
Studies, 1974.

Department of Transportation/Federal Highway Administration,
Cost of Operating an Automobile, April 1974.

Department of Transportation/Environmental Protection Agency,
Potential for Motor Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvement, 1974.

National Bureau of Standards, The Shirley Highway Express-Bus-
on-Freeway Demonstration/Second Year Results, November 1973.

Allan M. Voorhees, Feasibility and Evaluation Study of Reserved
Lanes for Buses and Car Pools, January 1971.
Oasis, "Do-It-Yourself Working Schedule," Social Security
Administration, July 1974.
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SNA, Labor Relations Reporter, Wage and Salary Controls;
The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc., Washington, D.C,
May 20, 1974.
Cohen, Lawrence B., Work Staggering for Traffic Relief -
'• An Analysis of Manhattan's Central Business District;
Frederick A. Praeger, Publishers, New York, New York 1968.

Elbing, Alvar 0., Gadon, Herman and Gordon, John, R.M.; . .
"Flexible Working Hours: It's About Time" Harvard
Business Review, Vol. 52, No. 1; Graduate School of
Business Administration, Harvard University, Boston,
Massachusetts, January 1974.

U.S. News and World Report, "Is a 4-Day Week the Answer?
Latest Findings in Canada," Vol. LXXIII, No. 19,
Washington, D.C. November 6, 1972.

U.S. Newsand World Report, "Latest on the 4-Day Week,"
Vol. LXXII, No. 12, Washington, D.C. March 20, 1972..

Dun's Review, "How's the 4-Day Week Working?" Vol. 160,
No. 1; New York, New York, July 1972.

Dun's Review/ "Can the'4-Day Week Work?" Vol. 98, No. 1,
New York, New York, July 1972.

Nation's Business, "Picking Your Own Work Time," Vol. 61,
No. 9, New York, New York, September 1973.

Proceedings of the U.S. Department of Labor, Wage and Hour
Division; In the Matter of the Proposed Adoption of the
4-Day 40-Hour WorkweekWithout Overtime Compensation,
Publication No. 1357, Washington, D.C., January 1972.

Dun's Review, "The 4-Day Week and Productivity" Vol. 98, No. 1,
New York, New York, July 1971. . .

U.S. News and World Report, "Two Views of the 4-Day Work Week,"
Vol. LXX, No. 18, Washington, D.C. May 3, 1971.

WALAP (Women Architects, Landscape Architects and Planners);
"The Call for Flexible Work Schedules," Architectural
Forum, Vol. 137, No. 2; Whitney Publications, Inc.;
New York, New York, September 1972.
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Thomson, J. M. Methods of Traffic Limitations in Urban Areas,
OECD, 1972.

Orski, C. Kenneth, "Vehicle Free Zones in City Central"
Cologne, Germany, OECD, October 1971.

Roth, J. G and Thomson, J. M. "The Relief of Traffic Congestion
by Parking Restrictions," Transportation Research Record,
Vol. 34.
Deen, Thomas B., "A Study of Transit Fringe Parking Usage,"
Highway Research Record, No. 130, Vol. 66.

MATHEMATICA, Inc., Energy And Environmental Impacts of Varying
Emmission Standards and Automobile Efficiencies, Report to
EPA, May, 1975.
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