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-------
                          Table 18.
                  Summary of Major Economic
                Factors of the Energy Scenario
            as Compared to the Reference Scenario
                  1975     1977     1980     1983     1985

 GNP
 (Billion 1975 $)
   Energy         1,470    1,669    2,020    2,227     2,370
   Reference      1,470    1,665    2,012    2,221     2,365
      Difference      0       +4       +8       +6        +5

 Employment
 (Millions)
   Energy            86.1     90.U     97.1    101.1     103.2
   Reference         86.1     90.3     96.8    100.9     103.1
      Difference      0       +0.1     +0.3     +0.2      +0.1

 Investment
 (Billion 1975 $)
   Energy           221      285      315      362       377
   Reference        221      286      344      364       381
      Difference      0       -1        1       -2        -4

 Net Exports
 (Billion 1975 $)
   Energy ,           10.5     11.3      8.6      6.2       1.2
   Reference         10.6      7.7      1.6     -2.6      -8.9
      Difference     -0.1      3.6      7.0      8.8      10.1
 It can be seen that  the major factor in raising GNP between
 the Energy Scenario  and the Reference Scenario is  increased
 net exports and that,  for several years,  the level of
 investment expenditures actually declines slightly.  To
 achieve increased net  exports,  both imports  and exports
 fall,  with imports decreasing at a faster rate.  Turning to
 total  output,  for most years the output of the Energy
 scenario is about 0.1  to 0.3 percent higher  than the
 Reference Scenario;  however, the pattern is  erratic.   This
'induces similar increases in employment,  as  shown  in Table
 18.

 To analyze changes in  energy and material consumption
 between the two scenarios,  Table 19 provides annual  usage
 comparisons for petroleum,  coal, electricity,  iron ore,
;aluminum, and  copper.   (Note that petroleum  and coal data in
 Table  19 include use in generating electricity.  Table 17
 figures do not include this factor in order  to avoid double-
                            4-53

-------
counting in energy accounting.)   The trends for usage of
these forms of energy and materials are consistant with the
variations in assumptions for the scenarios.  Petroleum
demand, coal demand, and electricity demand for the Energy
Scenario decline in 1985 by approximately 21, 11, and 8.5
percent, respectively, when compared to the Reference
Scenario.  Slight decreases in use of iron, aluminum and
copper are noted with no decline greater than 5 percent,
which is consistent with the variation in total output.
                           U-5U

-------
                          Table 19.
            Comparison of Energy 6 Material Usage
          Between the Reference and Energy Scenarios

                  1975     1977     1980     1983     1985

 Petroleum  (Btu's
 Quadrillions)
   Energy         32.1     33.8     36.1     37.2     37.9
   Reference      30.3     37.2     41.4     45.0     47.6
      Difference  -2.2     -3.4     -5.3     -7.8     -9.7

 Coal  (Btu»s
 Quardri1lions)
   Energy         13.8     16.6     17.7     17.6     17.6
   Reference      13.9     17.0     18.4     19.0     19.8
      Difference  -0.1     -0.4     -0.7     -1.4     -2.2

 Electricity (Btu* s
 Quadrillions)
   Energy         22.5     26.5     30.9     34.9     37.6
   Reference      22.8     27.3     32.1      37.1      41.1
      Difference  -0.3     -0.8     -1.2     -2.2     -3.5

 Iron  Ore (Million
 Metric Tons)
   Energy        129      151       168      167      168
   Reference      129      151       167      169      173
      Difference   0        0        -1        -2       -5

 Aluminum (Million
 Metric Tons)
   Energy         5.1      6.2      7.4      7.9      8.2
  Reference       5.1      6.2      7.4      8.0      8.6
     Difference     000     -0.1     -0.4

Copper (Million
Metric Tons)
  Energy          2.9      3.5      4.1      4.3      4.5
  Reference       2.9      3.5      4.1      4.4      4.5
     Difference     0        0        0     -0. 1        0
                           4-55

-------
As a final comparison of the effects of energy conservation.
Table 20 provides the level of environmental residuals
produced in the Energy Scenario relative to those produced
in the Reference Scenario.
                         Table 20.
     Environmental Residuals from Energy Scenario (S5)
    as a Percentage of Reference Scenario Residuals (SI)
                        (S5/S1 in X)

Air Residuals           1975    1977    1980     1983    1985

Air Residuals
Stationary Sources

  Particulates            99      99      99       98      96
  Sulfur Oxides           98      97      96       93      89
  Nitrogen Oxides         98      97      96       93      89
  Hydrocarbons            95      95      92       89      87
  Carbon Monoxide         98      99      98       96      95

Air Residuals
Mobile Sources

  Particulates            95      95      95       94      95
  Sulfur Oxides           98     101     103      104     105
  Nitrogen Oxides         95      96      96       95      91
  Hydrocarbons            92      91      89       87      86
  Carbon Monoxide         92      90      88       86      85

Water Residuals
  Biochemical Oxygen
     Demand              100     100     100      100      99
  Suspended Solids       100     100     100       99      99
  Dissolved Solids       100      99      99       98      97
  Nutrients              100     100     100      100     100
In general, for water residuals, little impact is noted
since the energy conservation assumptions do not cause major
variations in output for the industries that produce the
majority of water pollutants.  The reduction in mobile
source emissions is consistent with the major reduction in
auto mileage and concomitant small increases in mass transit
and small decreases in freight transportation.

The major impact of the Energy Scenario on residuals is in
stationary source air emissions.  All five air residuals.
                            -56

-------
particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons,
and carbon monoxide, show significantly lower levels over
time.  The lesser reductions for particulates and carbon
monoxide are due to a mixed reaction in the output levels of
six major producing sectors.

In summary, the Energy Conservation Scenario assumptions
produce major effects on energy and material consumption and
on air pollution emissions when compared to the Reference
Scenario.  Remaining statistics for the two scenarios show
only minor effects when the two are compared.

The effects of the pollution control regulations under the
Energy Conservation Case assumptions are provided by
comparing the Energy Abatement Scenario with its
predecessor, the Energy Scenario.  The general output
statistics for the Energy Abatement Scenario are given in
Table 21 while Table 22 compares the results of Energy
Abatement Scenario with those of the Energy Scenario.  As in
the other scenario pairs, the scenario that includes the
pollution control costs and purchases generates higher
employment, GNP and total output for all forecast years.
The differences are greatest for the years 1975 and 1977
when the available labor force is sufficient to provide for
the increased resources needed for abatement controls
without diverting labor from competing employment
opportunities.  By 1985, Energy Abatement Scenario forecasts
are greater than those of the Energy Scenario by 0.16
percent for GNP, 0.5«» percent for total output and 0.26
percent for total employment.

Table 23 presents various pollution control costs as a
percentage of Energy Scenario GNP.  Comparing these
percentages with the values given in Table 6 and Table 1<*
again reveals the relative impact insensitivity over the
range of assumptions provided in this macroeconomic/energy
analysis.
                           U-57

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-------
                              Table  22.
Comparison  of  the  Macro Statistics of  the  Energy Abatement
          Scenario  {S6)  and  the  Energy Scenario  (S5)
                         [ (S6-S5)/S5 in %]
 Statistic

 Gross National  Product
 DisposaOle Income  Per Capita
 Total Employment
 Federal Expenditures
 Personal Consumption Expenditures
 Total Output
 Investment
 Energy Use
 Demand:  Iron
         Aluminum
 Recycling: Paper/Paperboard
           Aluminum
           Ferrous Metals
 Vehicle Kilometers Travelled
 Freight Metric Ton-Kilometers
 Net Air Residuals:
  Participates
  Sulfur Oxides
  Ni trogen Oxides
  Hydrocarbons
  Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals:
  Biochemical Oxygen  Demand
  Suspended Solids
  1975

  1.97
  0.00
  2.04
  0.24
  0.59
  a-. 33
  6.11
  3.98
 o71
 2.13
 1.70
 0.00
 3.60
-3267
 ??1a
-,337
.9 05
11.70
14 15
  1
 1>96
                                          1977

                                          1.74
                                          0.00
                                          1.86
                                          1.07
                                          0.33
  1.18
  1  46
  oioo
  3.05
.

-38.05
-53 07
 !:
 -6.20
   1980

 •  0. 10
 -0.95
   0. 14
   2.24
 -0.70
   0.34
   1.79
  022
  o ia
  J'w
  ? B8
     8
-57 os
   '
                                                  -11^99
                         1983

                         0.22
                        -0.82
                         0.26
                         2.20
                        -0.22
                         0.50
                         0.94
                         4.09
                                    022
                                    «To
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                                   ^  „„
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                                  -67.29
                                   •»<  5C
                                  ~I1 ' !!
                                  *:S
                                  -16.62
                                               1985

                                               0.16
                                              -1.19
                                               0.26
                                               2.17
                                              -0. 12
                                               0.54
                                              .0.38
                                               4.89
                                              -1.42
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                                                                          -7.61
                                                                         -59.48
                                                                         -75.12
                                                                          ,„ „,
                                                                         -78.07
                                                                         -19.45
                      .-61
                                4-61

-------
                         Table 23.
          Incremental Pollution Control Costs as a
             Percentage of Energy Scenario GNP
Air Stationary
Source Costs

  Annual Capital Cost
  O6M Cost

Water Industrial Costs

  Annual Capital Cost
  O&M Cost

Water Municipal Costss

  Annual Capital Cost
  O6M cost
                             1977  1980  1983  1985  1976-85
0.28  0.30  0.29  0.28
0.26  0.28  0.25  0.24
0.16
0.28
0.23
0.33
0.31
0.34
0.30
0.47
0.19  0.25  0.24  0.23
0.05  0.09  0.09  0.08
                    0.29
                    0.26
0.24
0.35
                    0.22
                    0.07
The effects of the energy conservation assumptions on
environmental residuals are provided as annual average
treatment efficiencies and emission levels in Tables 24 and
25.  These values again show about the same changes in
treatment efficiencies, although the changes are slightly
different here than in the Reference Abatement and Low
Productivity Abatement Scenarios.  This difference results
primarily from the greater variability introduced into the
interindustry flows by the energy conservation measures.

Thus, for data concerning the level of economic activity and
level of energy usage in the three major scenario pairs, the
difference at the macroeconomic level between the scenarios
without abatement effects and those with abatement effects
appear quite similar.
                           4-62

-------
                                 Table  21.
         Relative Stationary Source Treatment  Efficiencies
   of Selected Pollutants'for  the  Energy  and  Energy  Abatement  Scenarios
            (Efficiencies  in Percent of Residuals Removed)
                          1975
                     Energy
         Energy
         Abatement
                                                     1980
              Energy
         Energy
         Abatement
                                                                                1985
                                                                          Energy
                        Energy
                        Abatement
Air Residuals

Participates            73.6
Sulfur Oxides           23.5
Nitrogen Oxides          0,2
Hydrocarbons            38.2
Carbon Monoxide          45.7

Water Residuals            „

Biochemical  Oxygen
  Demand                68.6
Suspended Solids         82.7
Dissolved Solids         30.9
Nutrients               35.2
            85.3
            51.0
             2.5
            49.7
            61 .3
            72.4
            65.7
            33.6
            37.1
               73.7
               23.2
                0.2
               37.4
               46.0
               67.7
               82.9
               32.1
               38.6
            94.0
            72.9
             5.6
            58.4
            72.0
            86.2
            96.0
            43.7
            47.0
               72.9
               23.8
                0.3
               37.7
               46.8
               67.7
               83.3
               34.1
               40.0
            96.8
            72.1
             5.7
            69.3
            74.7
            92.9
            98.4
            61.4
            53.1
                                Table  25.
     Passenger Transportation  Emission Levels  for the Energy
                   and Energy Abatement Scenarios
       (Metric  Tons  per Million Vehicle Kilometers Travelled)
                           1975
                                                      1980
                                                                                 1985
 Air Residuals

 Participates
 Su)fur- Oxides
 Nitrogen Oxides
 Hydrocarbons
 Carbon Monoxide
                     Energy
 0.22
 0.09
 1 .96
 2.63
21.83
          Energy
          Abatement
 0.19
 0.09
 1.85
 2.26
17.74
                                                Energy
 0.22
 0.10
 1 .99
 2.19
21.97
                         Energy
                         Abatement
 0.17
 0.10
 1 .66
 1 .24
10.35
                                                                           Energy
 0.23
 0.11
 2.01
 2.10
22.06
                                     Energy
                                     Abatement!
0.16
0.11
1 .21
0.54
3.64
                         4-63
                                  1-63

-------
Chapter <»
Sectoral Analyses Results


In order to assess the impacts of pollution abatement
activities at a more detailed level than the macro-analysis
presented in Chapter 3, a sectoral level analysis of one of
the three abatement scenarios is required.  In this chapter,
the Reference Abatement Scenario is analyzed at the sectoral
level to describe these micro-level impacts.  Estimated
reductions in pollutant residuals for industries, mobile
sources, municipal treatment, and Federal, state, and local
governments, which are derived from the Reference Abatement
Scenario are analyzed first.  Following this, the sectoral
costs forecast for various industries to comply with Federal
pollution control legislation are analyzed.
                ESTIMATING THE REDUCTION IN
                  AIR RESIDUAL GENERATION

The graphs In Figure 1 show the impacts of the Reference
Abatement Scenario on generation of air residuals.  In the
graphs, the controlled (net) residual emission for each
pollutant in 1971 is set equal to 100 and forecasts for
subsequent years are indexed to the 1971 controlled
emissions.  Uncontrolled emissions are also shown indexed to
the 1971 controlled emissions.  The relative difference
between the two plots indicates the overall effectiveness of
pollution abatement technology for each pollutant in the
forecast year.  Controlled emissions are defined to be those
that enter the receiving media (air, water) from the
generating source after the abatement process is completed.
The relative contribution to total controlled emissions in
air by industrial/commercial sources, electric utilities and
municipal treatment is shown by the distance between the
appropriately labeled curves on each graph.

Reduction in residuals discharged to the nation's
environment, as shown in Figure 1, is only a rough indicator
of environmental quality.  However, significant increases or
decreases of the various types of emissions are indicative
of probable changes in ambient trends.  Therefore, the
graphs afford a measure of the probable environmental
quality so far as air is concerned.

The major source of each air pollutant is illustrated in
Figure 1.  Particulates and sulfur oxide emissions in 1971
result primarily from activity in the stationary sources

-------
(industrial/commercial and electric utilities)  while the
major cause of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide is mobile
sources (transportation).  Nitrogen oxide emissions are
approximately equal from fixed and mobile sources in 1971
and are shown to be difficult to abate in both sources.
                           U-65

-------
                         Figure  1.
Trends  in  Air  Residuals  from the Reference
                   Abatement: Scenario
                       in

                       ISO

                       130

                       no

                       M

                       70

                       so

                       so
                          HYDROCARBONS
                          H7I COMTIXIU-EO
JITRQL
FT
                                       100
    I  I    \
_tOTAL UNCOKTOOLLEB_
 RESIDUALS
                           ^iNSKSN SSSS^'MSSSSSS ELECTS 1C
                                             UTIUTIK
                              75 77   89
                                  YEAR
                      *so
        ELECTIIIC UTILtTIES
        TRANSPORTATION
                                            TRANSPORTATION
                                                                 CARBON MONOXIDE
                                                                 mi COHTROLLEa = 100
                                  1«0

                                  I70^	

                                  ... LTOTA1- I   I
                                  HO-j-UMCONTROLLEO
                                      RESIDUALS
                                                                                        tiLITlES

                                                                                    TRA»iSP3I!TATIOll
                                                                     75 77   80
                                                                         YEAR
                             4-66

-------
For the major stationary-source residuals (particulates and
sulfur dioxide), decreasing emissions are shown until 1977.
The end of 1977 was chosen in the Reference Case scenarios
to be the date that full compliance to the Clean Air Act for
all fixed sources occurs.  After 1977, the plots of both
sulfur oxide and particulate emissions from fixed sources
level until 1980 and sulfur oxides even shows slight
increases to 1985.  This represents a pattern approximating
the growth in economic activity without significant
subsequent increases in pollution abatement efficiencies for
these two pollutants.  This pattern is found for
particulates from 1977-1980 and for sulfur oxides from 1977-
1985.  (There is a slight dampening in the growth of the
emissions from these sources compared with the economic
growth over the 1977-1980 or 1977-1985 period due to more
stringent controls on emissions from new plants.)  The index
of emissions for particulates relative to the 1971 total
show the mobile sources share to be approximately constant
at 3 percent from 1971 through 1985; the index for
industrial/commercial sectors decreases from 84 percent in
1971 to 16 percent in 1985; and the electric utilities index
declines sharply from 13 percent to 2 percent by 1977 and
then becomes fairly constant.  The relative indices for
sulfur oxides emissions show the mobile source share
increasing from 2 percent in 1971 to 3 percent in 1985.  The
index for the industrial/commercial source remains fairly
constant throughout the interval, decreasing slightly by
1977, while the electric utilities index decreases from
approximately 50 percent in 1971 to about 25 percent in
1985.

Turning to air pollutants where mobile sources are most
important, the graph for hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emissions both show a steady decrease to 1985.  Emissions
standards for both pollutants for automobiles are scheduled
for full compliance in 1978.  The steady decrease in the
graphs after that time is due to phaseout of the older
model-year automobiles from vehicles still on the road that
occurs in each successive year since older automobiles are
not as well controlled as new models.  This factor tends to
offset any increases in stationary source emissions after
1977, which result from growth in economic output.
Uncontrolled hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions show
a decrease from 1971 to 1975, because older automobiles
(pre-1968 model years)  have hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emission factors approximately 120 percent larger than those
for the 1971 model year.  Many of these automobiles were
still in use in 1971 and are phased out throughout the
forecast period.  This effect continues after 1977 for
carbon monoxide due to the existence of more strict control
                           «»-67

-------
standards after that time.  The mobile sources index of
hydrocarbons decreases from 63 percent in 1971 to 20 percent
in 1985 while the index for hydrocarbon emissions from
stationary sources decreases from 37 percent to 25 percent.
Corresponding values for carbon monoxide are 85 to 25
percent and 15 to 9 percent.

Nitrogen oxide uncontrolled emissions increase 57 percent
over the course of the forecast period.  The electric
utilities index to 1971 controlled emissions increases from
29 to 61 percent, while the mobile source index increases
from 52 percent to 65 percent; the remainder from
industrial/commercial sources is fairly constant.  The
forecast increase in nitrogen oxide controlled emissions due
to mobile sources is probably underestimated by this
forecast because it is assumed that the presently legislated
1978 standard will be met.  If the 1978 standard is modified
or not met, which appears to be quite possible, the increase
in nitrogen oxide emissions would be even more severe.

Table 1 shows further detail concerning the largest
contributors to the industrial/commercial share of emissions
for air residuals after controls.  The combustion of fossil
fuels by 1985 causes the largest proportion of both sulfur
oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions.  For particulates, the
greatest source by far of emissions is the Crushed Stone
subsector, particularly in 1980.  The consumption of
gasoline at service stations and the production and use of
solvent-based paints dominate the generation of hydrocarbon
emissions in 1971 and increase their shares by 1985.  In
1985, the production and consumption of Solvent-Based Paints
yield over 40 percent of the industrial/commercial share of
hydrocarbons and about 25 percent of the total hydrocarbon
emissions from all sources.  Several sectors/subsectors,
such as Asphalt Production in particulates and Crude oil
Refining in sulfur oxides, have large shares of controlled
emissions in 1971; however, because of improved treatment
efficiencies, they make small contributions to the aggregate
industrial/commercial residuals in 1985.

Differences in air residuals as forecast in the Low
Productivity Abatement and Energy Abatement Scenarios are
presented in Table 2 as percent changes from the forecast
for major polluting industries in the Reference Abatement
Scenario.  For the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario, one
might expect these differences to be on the order of the
percent change in GNP, as shown at the bottom of the table.
The general tendency, however, is for residual production to
change at lower rates than GNP, with the notable exception
of the industrial and commercial use of fossil fuels.  As
                           4-68

-------
expected, little difference is seen between the Energy
Abatement and the Reference Abatement Scenarios other than
in the energy related sectors, where significantly lower
residuals are forecast for the Energy Abatement Scenario.
                           «-69


-------
                          Table 1.
         Industrial/Commercial Net Air Residuals by
           Major contributing Sectors/Subsectors

                          Percent of Industrial and Elec.
                          Emissions from Reference
                          Abatement Scenario
Sectors/Subsectors        1971
Particulates
Stone S Clay Products
  Crushed Stone

Electric Utilities
  Elec. by Coal

Paving & Asphalt
  Asphalt

Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
  Cement-Dry Grinding
  Cement-Wet Grinding

Steel

Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
  Lime

Industrial Combustion
  of Coal

Sulfur Oxides

Electric Utilities
  Elec. by High Sulfur
     Coal

Petroleum Refining
  Crude Oil Refining

Commercial/Institutional
  Use of Residual Oil

Petroleum Refining-Ind.
  Combustion of Oil
Crude Petro. Nat. Gas
  Sour Nat. Gas Proc.
     Plants                3.3
1975
1980
1985
21.4
12.9
11.2
8.6
8.0
6.5
3.6
3.2
46.9
7.6
3.8
3.6
34.2
12.7
8.5
7.2
6.1
5.4
2.9
2.4
42.6
4.6
5.4
6.3
70.7
4.3
1.4
1.4
1.0
2.7
0.3
0.4
26.5
0.6
7.8
11.1
46.7
7.9
1.0
0.3
0.2
3.9
0.6
0.8
24.1
0.7
11.8
12.0
 1.9
 0.1
 0.1
                           4-70

-------
                    Table 1.  (Continued)
         Industrial/Commercial Net Air Residuals by
           Major Contributing Sectors/Subsectors

                          percent of Industrial and Elec.
                          Emissions from Reference
                          Abatement Scenario

Sectors/Subsectors        1971     1975     1980     1985

Electric Utilities
  Elec. by High Sulfur
     Residual Oil          3.3      2.9      2.2      2.5

  Elec. by Low Sulfur
     Coal                  0.8      4.4     12.0     14.4

Nitrogen Oxides

Electric Utilities
  Elec. by Coal
  Elec. by Gas
  Elec. by Oil

Petroleum Refining
  Industrial Combustion
     of Oil

Hydrocarbons

Service Stations
  Gasoline Consumption

Paints
  Solvent Base Paints
     Production

Open Burning

Solvent Based Paints
  Consumption

Petroleum Refining
  Crude Oil Refining
  Gasoline Production

Industrial Chemicals
  Ethylene Oxide           3.2      2.0      0.4      0.5
41.6
10.8
8.9
3.8
17.3
17.0
10.2
10.1
8.5
6.8
48.1
8.1
11.4
3.2
25.5
22.2
0
10.6
5.6
7.0
50.7
5.5
13.5
2.5
29.3
26.3
0
9.8
2.2
5.7
50.3
5.5
14.7
2.5
24.9
32.9
0
11.1
3.1
8.5
                           4-71

-------
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-------
                ESTIMATING THE REDUCTION IN
                 WATER RESIDUAL GENERATION
Figure 2 presents graphs for water residuals which are
similar to those in Figure 1.  The shape of the total water
residual curves (see Figure 2) does not show any increases
after 1977 similar to the total controlled air residual
curves for sulfur oxides.  (However, the controlled level of
nutrients remains approximately the same after 1977 since
the increase in tertiary treatment of municipal sewage is
only sufficient to offset the increase in uncontrolled
nutrients due to population growth.)  This is due primarily
to the phased abatement schedule for water effluents in the
1972 amendments.  The Reference Abatement Scenario assumes
that BPT is operational by 1977 and BAT is operating by
1983; therefore, there is a continual increase in most water
effluent removal efficiencies until 1983.  Other than the
change from the sulfur oxides curve, the curves for the
total uncontrolled water residuals show shapes similar to
the remaining air residual curves, responding to increases
in economic output and population.

Industrial/commercial and municipal sewage contribute
approximately equal, but declining, shares to BOD effluents
through 1985.  All three sources, industrial/commercial,
municipal sewage, and electric utilities, contribute to
suspended solids emissions.  In 1971, the
industrial/commercial index was approximately 78 percent of
all suspended solids emissions; however, this index
diminishes to less than 6 percent by 1985 while the
municipal sewage index changes only from 21 percent in 1971
to about 10 percent in 1985.

-------
              Figure  2.
Trends in Water Residuals from the
   Reference Abatement scenario
                                      tNOtrtTKMlS
                                      COM WE RCW.
                                      ElCCntKAL
                                      UTILITIES
               HUHKIFJU.
                a-75

-------
The composition of dissolved solids emissions is almost
totally (85 percent) from industrial/commercial sources in
1971; by 1985 the industrial/commercial index has dropped to
50 percent while the electric utilities index has grown from
15 percent to 30 percent, primarily due to electric
generation by coal.  Nutrients (composed of phosphate and
nitrate effluents) are almost totally due to municipal
sources for all years and remain at a relatively constant
level throughout the time period.

Table 3 shows the largest economic sector and subsector
contributors to the industrial/commercial share of effluents
for water.  Municipal sewage treatment is excluded from
consideration in this table because residuals attributed to
this sector come from a variety of sources in addition to
industrial and commercial establishments.  For BOD, Pulp
Mills are the major source of effluents in 1971.  However,
by 1985, Forestry and Fishery Products has the largest share
of BOD effluents, reflecting the lesser degree of treatment
efficiency for this sector.  Asphalt production and the
Bauxite Refining process were the largest polluters of
suspended solids from industrial/commercial sources in 1971.
By 1985, however, sectors/subsectors with less efficient
control technologies, such as Forestry and Fishery Products,
Lime production, and Bleached Kraft Pulp Mills, account for
almost half of the effluent while suspended solids from
Asphalt and Bauxite Refining are completely controlled.
Subsectors of the Industrial Chemicals sector yield the
greatest share of dissolved solids effluents prior to the
implementation of BAT in 1983.  Of these subsectors, the
production of sodium carbonate by the Solvay process was the
largest contributor in 1971.  This economic production
process, however, is being replaced by a competing process
for the production of sodium carbonate, the Trona process.
The Trona process yields negligible water residuals;
therefore, effluents from the Sodium Carbonate process
decrease to almost zero in 1985.  In contrast to this
pattern, the share for Citric Acid production increases from
less than 25 percent to over 50 percent of
industrial/commercial suspended solids effluents over the
period because the production of Citric Acid increases to
double the 1971 value by 1985.

Table 4 presents the percent differences in water residuals
forecast for the major polluters of the Reference Abatement
Scenario in the Low Productivity Abatement and Energy
Abatement Scenarios as compared with water residuals from
those polluters found in the Reference Abatement Scenario.
The same general trends between scenarios are evidenced for
water residual differences as for air residuals.  The trends
                           «-76

-------
for the Energy Abatement Scenario are, however, less
pronounced because major changes in assumptions made for
this scenario impacted primarily on air residuals rather
than on water residuals.
                           U-77

-------
                          Table 3.
        Industrial/Commercial Net Water Residuals by
           Major Contributing Sectors/Subsectors

                             Percent of Industrial and
                             Elec. Emissions from
                             Reference Abatement Scenario

Sectors/Subsectors        1971     1977     1983     1985

Biochemical Oxygen Demand
Pulp Mills
  Kraft-Bleached

Plastic Materials &
Resins

Forestry & Fishery
Products
13.1
11.1
7.5
6.7
 8.6     13.3     11.4      8.0


 7.4     14.6     33.4     40.6
Pulp Mills
  Sulfite-Pulp

Pulp Mills
  Kraft-Unbleached

suspended solids

Paving 6 Asphalt
  Asphalt

Aluminum
  Bauxite Refining

Steel

Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
  Lime

Pulp Mills
  Kraft-Bleached

Forestry & Fishery
Products
6.0
5.9
26.3
25.3
13.5
7.7
4.7
4.2
5.5
5.6
19. 1
18.9
12.4
1.7
7.0
9.7
3.5
5.8
0
0
7.5
9.2
13.0
19.7
2.5
5.9
0
0
3.7
16.6
13.5
17.1
                           4-78

-------
                    Table 3. (Continued)
        Industrial/Commercial Net Water Residuals by
           Major Contributing Sectors/Subsectors

                             Percent of Industrial and
                             Elec. Emissions from
                             Reference Abatement Scenario
Sectors/Subsectors
1971
1977
1983
1985
Dissolved Solids

Industrial Chemicals
  Sodium Carbonate-
  Solvay Process          39.0     29.8      7.6
  Citric Acid             23.0     27.2     «5.2

Electric Utilities
  Electricity by Coal     1ft.1     24.2     31.8

Industrial Chemicals
  Chlorine-Diaphragm
  cell                     2.3      3.5      1.5
                            0
                           50.6
                           U-79

-------
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-------
                   ESTIMATING THE COST OF
                     POLLUTION CONTROL
Assuming air and water pollution controls, associated cost
functions, and the Reference Case growth in GNP, direct
costs of pollution control for each industry sector can be
forecast using SEAS.  Using these forecasts, the total
annual costs (annualized capital plus O6M) for the 1976-85
period for all industries will be:
  Industrial Control Costs
        Air costs
        Water Costs
(Billions 1975$)
$231.8
$111. 1
$120.7
The detailed distribution of these costs across aggregate
industrial sectors is shown in Table 5.  Note that Electric
Power Plants must expend about a fourth of the air pollution
costs.  Nearly another quarter of the air costs are borne by
many different industries in order to provide space heating,
with Chemicals and Paper being the major aggregate
industries making this expenditure.

By far the largest water pollution control expenditure is
made by the Machinery and Equipment sector (this includes
the aggregate sectors of electroplating,'fabricated metal
products, and electrical and nonelectrical machinery).  This
sector is required to expend over 50 percent of all
industrial water pollution control expenditures.  The
Chemicals sector is the second largest spender for water
pollution control (in particular. Organic Chemicals,
Inorganic Chemicals, and Plastics and Synthetics), and will
be required to spend slightly over 16 percent of the total
industrial control costs for water pollutants.

When air and water pollution control costs are combined, the
preponderance of Machinery and Equipment expenditures for
water pollution control also make it the aggregate sector,
expending over twice the amount that any other aggregate
sector expends for total pollution control even though no
air pollution control expenditures are required.  The share
of total pollution control equipment costs for Machinery and
Equipment is 29 percent.  Of the remaining aggregate
sectors, five show total pollution control costs in excess
of 5 percent of the national industrial pollution control
                           4-82

-------
costs: Electric Utilities  (14 percent); Other  (11 percent)
Pulp, Paper, Printing, and Lumber  (8 percent); Ferrous
Metals  (8 percent); and Chemicals  (7 percent).  Together,
these six aggregate sectors account for two-thirds of
national industrial pollution control costs.
                           4-83

-------
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-------
To illustrate the components of the cost estimates for each
industry, two aggregate industrial sectors (Paper and
Printing, and Ferrous Metals) may be examined in greater
detail.  Table 6 shows the cost sectors involved in each of
these aggregate sectors and their associated air pollution
abatement expenditures.  Note that Kraft Pulping contributes
more than 85 percent of the air pollution control
expenditures for the aggregate Paper and Printing sector.
Similarly, the manufacture of iron and steel mill products
comprise the bulk of the Ferrous Metals expenditures for air
pollution control.
                          Table 6.
       Air Pollution Abatement Expenditure Detail for
                  Paper and Ferrous Metals

                             % of Total Annual Air
                             Expenditures (1976-85)

Pulp, Paper, Printing 6 Lumber    10.7
  Kraft Pulp                             9.3
  NSSC Pulp                              1.2
  Printing                               0.2
  Lumber                                 0.0

Ferrous Metals                    10.7
  Iron and steel                         7.2
  Iron Foundries                         2.3
  Steel Foundries                        0.6
  Ferroal1oys                            0.7
Kraft Pulping expenditures for air pollution control are
calculated using 11 industrial process segments while the
expenditures for iron and Steel manufacture are calculated
using 22 industrial process segments.  The 11 segments for
Kraft Pulping and their contribution to the Kraft Pulping
total are shown in Table 7.
                           *-85

-------
                          Table 7.
            Air Pollution Cost Detail by Segment
                     for Kraft Pulping
                                   % of Total Annual
                                   Air Expenditures
Paper
  Kraft Pulping
     Lime Kiln
     Smelting Tank
     Gas Incineration in
        Recovery Furnace
     Gas Incineration in
        Lime Kiln
     Boiler—Suspended Particulates
     Boiler—Sulfur Oxides
     Recovery Furnace
        Scrubber
        Black Liquor Oxidation
        Replacement
        Electrostatic Precipitator
     Industrial Fuel Combustion
9,3
      0.10
      0-08

      0.10

      0.10
      0.28
      3.53

      0.03
      0.28
      1.03
      0.57
      3.20
Industry Investment

The difficulties that a given industry faces in making
pollution control expenditures are dependent upon many
factors.  Two of these factors are the size of the pollution
control expenditures as a percentage of total output by the
industry and the pollution control investment required as a
percentage of the total expected investment by that
industry.  Data for 31 aggregate industries concerning each
of these factors are shown in Tables 8 and 9.  Table 10
summarizes this data for air, water* and total pollution
control expenditures and investments for the 31 aggregate
industries and also ranks the industries based on each
percentage.
                           1-86

-------
                             Table  8.
           Relative  Impacts  of Required  In-House
       Pollution Abatement  Expenditures,  1976-1985
                         (Million 1975*)
                                            Air
                                                              Water
                                                                               Air & Water
 Category

 Agriculture
 Mining
 Natural Gas Processing
 Meat & Poultry
 Da i r y
 Canned 8 Frozen  Food
 Grain Milling &   Feed Mills
 Beet S Cane Sugar
 Textsles
 Lumber S Wood Products
 Furni ture
 Pulp & Paper
 Builder's Paper
 Print ing
 Chemicals
 PertiIizers
 Plastics & Synthetics
 Petroleum & Asphalt
 Pai nts
 Rubber Products
 Leather Tanning
 Glass
 Asbestos.  Clay,  Lime, &
  Concrete
 Iron &  Steel
 Nonferrous Metals
 Fabricated Metals &
  Electroplating
Machinery
 Transportation Equipment
 Electr ic  Ut i 1 i ties      ...
Wholesale  &  Retai1
Services
Other  Industries

Totals
Output
Total X of
Cost Output
1.260.713
,-225.684





















1 .
1 .

4.
5.

243.857
491 .305
189.350
226. 182
195,772
50.796
650.571
178.630
213.699
367,951
138.245
445.666
505.520
52.841
223.432
629.999
58,891
164.603
14.719
1 10.432
274,559
540.843
405.332
999,503
258, 102
763.120
792.675
721 .246
728.522
N.A


3.



i .
9.


5 ,


6,




5.
1 1 .
9.

1 .

24.
3.

24.
0
165
423
0
0
0 	
629
0
316
0
849
904
0
11 :
275
512
501
280
119
0
0
0
974
885.
784
0
148
471
538
317
305
237
0
0.07
0.17
0
0

1.

0.

0.
2.

0.
1 .
0.
0.
1 .
0.



2,
2.
2.

0.
0.
3.
0.
0.
N
0
85
0
05
0
86
69
0
02
04
97
22
00
26
0
0
0
17
20
42
0
09
03
10
07
01
.A
Total
Cost
291
0
0
1,059
1.338
3.633
47
121
641
425
0
7.276
184
0
16.386
372
2,974
2.446
0
246
525
212
290
7,481
1 .506
32,451
21 ,710
11 .634
7.455
0
0
0
X of
Output
0.02
0
0
0.22
0.71
1 .61
0.
0.
0.
0.
1 .
0.

3.
0.
1 .
0.

0.
3.
0.
0.
1 .
0.
3.
1 .
0.
0.


N
02
24
10
24
0
98
13
0
24
70
33
39
0
13
57
19
11
38
37
26
73
67
94
0
0
.A
Total
Cost
291
165
423
1 .059
1 ,338
3,638
3.675



1 .
17.


21 .

3.
a.




6,
19.
11 ,
32.
22.
12.
31 .
3.

24.
121
957
425
849
181
184
11 1
661
884
476
725
1 1 9
246
525
212
264
366
290
«51
858
105
992
31 7
305
237
X Of
Output
o.oa
0.07
0.17
0.22
0.71
1 .61
1 .88
0.24
0.15
0.24
0.86
4.67
0.13
0 02
V m Was
4.29
1 .67
1 .56
1 .38
0.23
0. 13
3.57
0.19
2.28
3.58
2.79
3.26
1 .82
0.70
4.04
0 .07
0.01
N.A
                                N.A  110.743
                                                  N.A  120,708
                                                                   N.A
                                                                          231.450
                                                                                       N.A
                             «-87

-------
                                 Table  9.
        Relative Impacts of  Required In-House  Pollution
                  Abatement Investment,  1976-1985
                            (Million 1975  «)
Category

Agriculture
Mi ning
Natural Gas  Processing
Meat & Poultry
Dai ry
Canned &  Frozen Food
Grain Mi ) 1 ing &
  Feed Mil Is
Beet & Cane  Sugar
Textiles
Lumber &  Wood
  Products
Furni ture
Pulp & Paper
Builder's Paper
Printing
Chemicals
Pert i1izers
Plastics  £ Synthetics
Petroleum &  Asphalt
Paints
Rubber Products
Leather Tanning
Glass
Asbestos. Clay, Lime.
  S Concrete
Iron & Steel
Nonferrous Metals
Fabricated Metals &
  Electroplating
Machi nery
Transportati on
  Equipment
Electric  Uti Hties
Wholesale &  Retai\
Services
Other Industries

Totals

Total
Investment
75,569
33,392
21 ,736
6.998
5,558
11,236
6.642
4,017
29.289
17.624
6.634
49,672
7,337
25,072
66,566
5.373
20,696
34,207
2,235
16,210
409
8.484
18,513
56.016
28,061
54,550 	
61,358
101 .169
127,174
229,612
201 ,538
N.A
Air

Abatement
Investment X
0
134
51
0
0
0
1.021
0
88
0
90
2.030
0
' 22
1.096
•98
140
1.121
12
0
0
0
628
2.019
1.157
- o-
118
131
7.906
1 .207
80
4.411
0
0.40
0.24
0
0
0
15.37
0
0.30
0
1 .36
4.09
0
0.09
1.65
1 .82
0.68
3.23
0.53
0
0
0
3.39
3.60
4.12
0
0.19
0.13
6.22
0.53
0.04
N.A
Water
Abatement
Investment
112
0
0
492
516
1 ,740
13
31
378
71
0
5,024
123
0
5,404
243
1,560
1,670
0
130
280
102
91
2,321
224
8.298
7,317
3,451
5,376
0
0
0


%
0.15
0
0
7.04
9.28
15.48
0.19
2.91
1.29
0.40
0
10.12
1.68
0
8.12
4.52
7.54
4.88
0
0.80
68.43
1 .21
0.49
4.14
0.80
15.21
11.93
3.41
4.23
0
0
N.A
Total
Air & Water
Investment
112
134
51
492
516
1,740
t,033
31
467
71
90
7,055
123
22
6,501
340
1.699
2,791
12
130
263
102
719
4,340
1 ,381
8,298
7,436
3,583
13,282
1 .207
60
4,411
N.A
23.560
                  N.A
44,967
                                             68,529
                                                       0.15
                                                       0.40
                                                       0.24
                                                       7.04
                                                       9.28
                                                       15.48

                                                       15.56
                                                       2.91
                                                       1.59

                                                       0.40
                                                       1 .36
                                                       14.20
                                                       1 .68
                                                       0.09
                                                       9.77
                                                       6.34
                                                       8.21
                                                       8.16
                                                       0.53
                                                      » 0.80
                                                       68.43
                                                       1 .21

                                                       3.38
                                                       7.75
                                                       4.92

                                                       15.21
                                                       12.12

                                                       3.54
                                                       tO.44
                                                       0.53
                                                       0.04
                                                         N.A

                                                         N.A
                          4-88
                                    U-88

-------
                                Table  10.
  Hanking  of Impacted Sectors by  Total Abatement Expenditures
   as  Percentages of Total output and by Abatement  Investment
             as  Percentages of  other Planned Investment
                                (1976-1985)*
                                      Investment
                                                                         Output
Air
Sank
4
9
2
5
•*
-
3
6
1
17
8
-
1 1
7
10
-
18
12
-
- •
—
_
16
15
-
-
13
14
19
—
20
X
4.09
"\ .65
6.22
3.60
— •
-
4.12
3.39
15.37
0.19
1 .82
-
0.68
3.28
1 .36
-
0.13
0.53
-
-
-
—
0.24
0.30
-
-
0.53
0.40
0.09
—
0.04
Water
Rank
5
7
12
13
1
3
19
21
23
4
' 11
2
8
10
-
6
14
-
15
22
9
18
-
17
16
20
-
•-
-
24
-
%
10.12
8.12
4.23
4.14
68.43
15.21
0.80
0.49
0.19
1 1 .93
4.52
15.48
7.54
4.88
-
9.28
3.41
-
2.91
0.40
7.04
1 .21
-
1.29
1 .68
0.80
-
-
-
0.15
-
Both
Rank
5
8
7
12
1
4
16
15
2
6
14
3
10
1 1
21
9
17
24
18
26
13
22
28
20
19
23
25
27
30
29
31
X
14.20
9.77
10.44
7.75
68.43
15.21
4.92
5.86
15.56
12.12
6.34
15.48
8.21
8.16
1.36
9.28
3.54
0.53
2.91
0.40
7.04
1 .21
0.24
1.59
1 .68
0.80
0.53
0.40
0.09
0.15
0.04
Air
Rank
2
7
1
4
-
_
3
5.
6
14
9
-
12
8
10
-
18
11
_
.. -
•
-
13
17
-
-
15
.16
19,
—
20
X
2.69
1 .04
3.10
2.24
—
_
2.42
2.17
1.85
0.09
0.97
-
0.22
1.00
0.86
_
0.03
0.26
-
-
-
—
0.17
0.05
-
-
0.07
0.07
0.03c
—
0.01
Water
Rank
4
3
9
7
1
2
14
21
23
5
1 1
6
8
13
-
10
12
-
15
16
17
18
-
22
19
20
-
-
-
24
-
X
1 .98
3.24
0.94
1 .38
3.58
3.25
0.37
0,11
0.02
1.73
0.70
1 .61
.1.33
0.39
-
0.70
0.66
-
0.24
0.24
0.22
0.19
-
0.10
0.13
0.13
-
-
-
0.02
-
Both
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
X
4.67
4.29
4.04
3. 62
3.59
3.25
2.79
2.28
1 .83
1.82
1.67
1 .61
1.56
1.38
0.86
0.70
0.69
0.26
0.24
0.24
0.22
0. $9
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.07
0.07
0.03
0.02
0.01
Pulp  & Paper
Chemicals
Electric UtiIities
Iron  & Steel
Leather Tanning
Fabricated Metals
  and Electroplating
Nonferrous Metals
Asbestos. Clay.
  Line, and Concrete
Grain Milling & Feed Mills
Machinery
Pert'1'zers
Canned 4 Frozen Food
Plastics & Synthetics
Petroleum & Asphalt
Furni ture
Dai ry
Transportation Equipment
Paints
Beet  & Cane Sugar
Lumber & Wood Products  •
Meat  & Poultry
Class
Natural Gas Processing
Textiles
Bui 1der's Paper
Rubber Products
Wholesale & Retai1
Mi ning
Print ing
Agriculture
Services

  This table,  while analogous  to Table 4 of  the Executive Summary, does not  include the adjustments
  to  industries where specific studies were  undertaken at a later date.
                                   4-89

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Of the 31 industrial sectors shown in Table 10, thirteen
require abatement expenditures for both air and water.
Industries with high air pollution control costs often have
significant water pollution control costs as well.  However,
industries with high water pollution expenditure control
costs are less likely to also have air control expenditures.

Water pollution control investments dominate the air
pollution equipment investments, similar to the total
expenditure pollution control cost patterns discussed above.
Of the 10 largest investors, four have water pollution
control investments only, including three of the top four.
In the remaining six industries, three others show pollution
control investments heavily weighted towards water, two show
about even splits between air and water, and one is heavily
weighted towards air.  Finally, of the top 10 industries for
air pollution control investments, nine also must make water
pollution control investments; however, only five of the top
10 industries for water pollution investment must also make
air pollution control investments.

Considering air expenditures, the Grain Milling and Peed
Mills industry will have to make a 15.1 percent addition to
total expected investment during the 1976-85 period if it is
to adequately control air pollution.  Other industries with
large air pollution investment requirements of greater than
3 percent of other investment requirements are: Electric
Utilities (6.2 percent), Nonferrous Metals (4.1 percent).
Pulp and Paper 1.1 percent). Iron and Steel 3.6 percent).
Asbestos, Clay, Lime, and Concrete (3.4 percent), and
Petroleum and Asphalt (3.3 percent).

The 'total annual air pollution control costs during the
1976-85 period as percentages of the total output value for
each sector are much smaller than the above ratios.  The
highest sectors for these annual cost ratios are: Electric
Utilities (3.1 percent); Pulp and Paper (2.7 percent);
Nonferrous Metals (2.* percent); Asbestos, Clay, Lime, and
Concrete  (2.3 percent); Iron and Steel  (2.2 percent); and
Grain Milling and Feed Mills  (1.9 percent).  Because some
sectors are more or less capital-intensive than others in
their air pollution abatement costs, this list is
significantly different from the previous list.

Similar percentages concerning water pollution abatement
investment to those presented for air pollution control may
be calculated.  The comparison of water pollution control
investment to other planned investment yields the following
ranking for most heavily impacted industries:
                           U-90

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        Leather Tanning               68.43%
        Canned & Frozen Food          15.48%
        Fabricated Metals 6
           Electroplating             15.21%
        Machinery                     11.93%
        Pulp & Paper                  10.12%
        Dairy                          9.28%
        Chemicals                      8.12%
        Plastics and Synthetics        7.54%
        Meat 6 Poultry                 7.04%


All other industries show percentages of less than 5 percent
for this statistic.

The ratio of total industrial plant expenditures for water
pollution control  (not including payments to municipalities
for water pollution control) to total output again are much
smaller percentages than those for investment.  The most
highly impacted industries using this statistic are:


        Leather Tanning                3.58%
        Fabricated Metals &
           Electroplating              3.25%
        Chemicals                      3.24%
        Pulp & Paper                   1.98%
        Machinery                      1.73%
        Canned & Frozen Food           1.61%
All other industries show percentages of less than 1.5
percent.  As for air pollution control, the relative
capital-intensity of pollution control costs for various
industries causes the ranking of industries in this list to
shift from the order of the previous list.

A final consideration in impact evaluation is the total
impact of the combination of air and water pollution control
costs.  Altogether, nine aggregate industries will require
an investment level for pollution control over the decade
that is more than 9 percent of other planned investment in
each industry:
                           4-91

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        Leather Tanning               68.43%
        Grain Milling & Feed Mills    15.56%
        Canned & Frozen Food          15.48%
        Fabricated Metals &
           Electroplating             15.21%
        Pulp & Paper                  14.20%
        Machinery                     12.12%
        Electric Utilities            10.44%
        Chemicals                      9.77%
        Dairy                          9.28%
Leather Tanning is by far the most impacted industry
according to this statistic, with pollution control
investments equal to slightly more than two-thirds of other
planned investment over the decade.

All industries have a total pollution control cost as a
percentage of sector output that is less than 5.0 percent.
The most heavily impacted are:
        Pulp 6 Paper
        chemicals
        Electric Utilities
        Iron 6 Steel
        Leather Tanning
        Fabricated Metals &
           Electroplating
        Nonferrous Metals
        Asbestos, Clay, Lime, 6
           Concrete
4.67%
4.29%
4.04%
 ,62%
 ,58%
3.
3,
3.25%
2.79%

2.42%
The other industries are impacted at less than 2 percent of
their total decade output.
                           4-92

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Chapter 5
Estimating Pollution control Costs


          COMPARISON OF SEAS INVESTMENT ESTIMATES
      FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL WITH ESTIMATES OF BEA
The year-by-year estimates of air pollution control
investment presented in Chapter 4, which are necessary to
equip over half of the existing plants with required
pollution control devices by the beginning of 1976 and to
equip all existing plants with such devices by the end of
1978, appear to be optimistic when compared with the Bureau
of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimastes of actual air
pollution investment expenditures in 1973 and 1971 and of
planned expenditures for  1975.  Table 1 compares common
estimates for both studies, showing BEA estimates of actual
air pollution investments as a percentage of the SEAS
forecast of investments for the three years.
                          Table 1.
      Comparison of SEAS Forecast Investments and BEA
        Estimates of Actual Air Pollution investment
           Expenditures for 1973, 1974, and 1975
        (BEA estimates as a percent of SEAS Forecasts)
All Industries

Electric Utilities
Ferrous Metals
Nonferrous Metals
Stone, Clay, Glass
Food
Paper
Chemicals
Petroleum
1973

105%

182%
 24%
129%
 43%
 32%
 45%
155%
184%
1974

 69%

139%
 16%
 49%
 47%
 17%
 49%
105%
142%
1975

 38%

123%
 19%
 46%
 32%
 17%
 60%
106%
369%
1973-1975

   57%

  141%
   19%
   63%
   39%
   20%
   52%
  118%
  144%
In analyzing Table 1, note that according to SEAS forecasts
of investments, industries in aggregate were spending about
the right amount in 1973 (as estimated by BEA).  Ferrous
Metals; Food; Stone, Clay, and Glass; and Paper, however,
were well behind schedule even at this point.  By 1974, the
total for all industries had slipped behind the pace
estimated by SEAS as required to meet the pollution
                           4-93

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standards.  Possibly as an aftermath of the economic
recession, attempts to fight Federal regulations in the
courts, or other factors, industries as a whole had dropped
to less than 70 percent of the expenditure level needed in
1974.  Ferrous Metals and Food dropped even further behind
their respective schedules than they were in 1973.  By 1975,
the expenditures planned by industries had dropped to only
slightly above a third of the amount needed to meet the
expenditure schedule of the Reference Abatement Scenario.
However, three industries  (Electric Utilities, Chemicals,
and Petroleum) planned to install more equipment than the
SEAS investment schedule estimated as being needed.  For
example. Petroleum planned to spend at a level three and a
half times greater than estimates indicated would be needed
by 1975 to meet the compliance schedules discussed in
Appendix B.  A fourth sector. Paper, does not achieve the
required investment pace during 1973 through 1975, but it
does improve its percentage over time.  In contrast to these
industries, the other four industries in Table 1 exhibit
declining investment schedule percentages over the full time
period and are at less than 50 percent of required
investment by 1974.  These industries are Ferrous Metals;
Nonferrous Metals; Stone, Clay, and Glass; and Food.
                   ESTIMATING SIGNIFICANT
                ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL COSTS
Four types of environmental control costs are estimated by
SEAS.  These types, along with the receiving medium
associated with each, are:

  •  Industrial  (air and water)

  •  Mobile sources  (air)

  •  Municipal  (water)

  •  Government  (air and water)

The techniques used to develop cost estimates for each.of
these types are presented in the following discussion.

-------
Estimating Air and Water
Costs for Industrial sources

All of the industrial control costs estimated by SEAS
(except for Electric Utilities) are endogenously determined.
These industrial costs are calculated using characteristics
of existing plants and estimated characteristics of new
plants to be built in response to overall economic activity
forecast by the SEAS economic projections.  Therefore, if
one scenario has a 10 percent higher GNP than another by
1985, it will consequently forecast more new plants and
higher pollution abatement costs.  This factor explains a
great deal of the differences between the Reference
Abatement Scenario costs and previous estimates by EPA and
other agencies.  In addition, the composition of, as well as
the amount of, GNP growth affects the industrial cost
estimates.  Further detail on the industrial cost estimation
techniques is provided in Appendix D.

Three additional types of environmental control costs
besides industrial costs are important.  These are the costs
associated with mobile sources, municipal treatment, and
governmental expenditures.  These costs are determined
outside the dynamics of the SEAS economic forecasting
models, but are made consistent with the results of these
models and, consequently, the industrial cost estimates.
For example, the control costs associated with new
automobiles!are very much dependent upon the forecast of new
car sales.  When national conditions change in such a way as
to alter the baseline projection of new car sales from 1971
to 1985, the inputs to the mobile source control cost
calculations are correspondingly adjusted.


Estimating Air Costs
for Mobile Sources

Mobile source air pollution control costs are generated as a
result of emission standards for light-duty vehicles  (LDV) ,
heavy-duty vehicles  (HDV), and aircraft, plus the impact of
State Transportation Control Plans  (TCP's).  The Clean Air
Act specifies national standards for mobile source emission
levels for hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen
oxides.

The costs to reach the national standards for emission
levels by the target years contined in the Clean Air Act are
estimated by a model that ages the present stock of
vehicles, year by year.  The model takes into account new
vehicle sales, which are based upon the GNP and personal
                           4-95

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income figures provided by the scenarios discussed in the
macroeconomic analyses,  calculated mobile source control
costs for the entire stock of vehicles are then fed back
through the interindustry model.  For example, the capital
expenditures for automobile control devices are treated as
additional expenditures for the Motor Vehicles and Parts
sector while the operation and maintenance (O6M)
expenditures are treated as additional expenditures for the
Auto Repair sector.

The total costs to achieve Federal mobile source emission
standards during the 1976-85 period are estimated to be
$129.3 billion.  This is the largest single source of air
pollution abatement costs.

Concentrations of carbon monoxide and smog (caused by
hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides reacting in sunlight) are
so high in several metropolitan areas that even the
stringent stationary source controls and the Federal mobile
source emission standards do not reduce emissions
sufficiently to meet Federal ambient air quality standards.
These areas have developed Transportation Control Plans
(TCP*s)  that involve combinations of additional mobile
source controls (more retrofit devices for existing
vehicles, strong inspection and maintenance measures, and
vapor control systems for gas stations).

The TCP costs  (not adjusted to reflect savings from improved
fuel economy) are estimated to be SO.7 billion over the
1976-85 period.  Most of these costs are for inspection and
maintenance of automobiles to insure that their pollution
control devices are operating at the proper effectiveness.
These are expenditures made primarily by automobile owners.
However, increased engine maintenance results in significant
fuel economy, which is a direct economic benefit to
automobile owners.  In offsetting the increased maintenance
costs with these fuel savings, only a small net total cost
of $0.1 billion is left for TCP's over the 1976-85 period.
(Refer to Section 2, Transportation Control Plans, for
further detail.)
                   i

Estimating Water Costs
for Municipal Treatment:

Municipal water pollution control expenditures comprise the
largest single category of water pollution control
expenditures.  Municipal expenditures are divided into six
types:
                           4-96

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  •  Construction of sewage treatment plants to provide
     secondary treatment

  •  Construction of sewage treatment plants to provide
     tertiary treatment more stringent than secondary
     treatment  (removal of phosphorus, ammonia, nitrates,
     and organic pollutants)

  •  Rehabilitation of old sewers

  •  Construction of new sewers
                                                            i
  •  Correction of overflow from combined storm and sanitary
     sewers

  •  Provision for stormwater treatment

Federal funds spent for municipal treatment are based upon
past levels of expenditures and the present funding
authority of $18 billion for municipal construction grants
to states.  State-local matching capital expenditures are
expected to be a third of the Federal construction grant
(i.e.. Federal funds will comprise about 75 percent of
construction expenditures).  Annualized capital expenditures
are estimated to be $H6.0 billion over the 1976-85 period.
O&M expenditures to be made by state and local governments
are estimated to be $16,0 billion over the same period.


Estimating Air and Water
Abatement costs to Government

Estimates of governmental expenditures for air pollution
were made by using Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
estimates of Federal expenditures and by calculating state
and local expenditures through extrapolation of data for 15
sample states for which estimates of the costs of the State
Implementation Plans were available.

The governmental water control costs exclude Federal and
state and local government expenditures for municipal
treatment (covered elsewhere under the Municipal
Expenditures title), but they do include expenditures for:

  •  Monitori ng

  •  Technical assistance

  •  Grant assistance
                           U-97

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  •  Research

  *  Abatement at government-owned facilities.

The total governmental expenditure for pollution control is
estimated to be over $12 billion during the next decade.
The expenditure for any year is never as high to one percent
of the total estimated annual non-defense governmental
expenditure, during the 1976-85 period.
                ESTIMATING POLLUTION CONTROL
                        COST IMPACTS
Previous estimates of the cost of air and water pollution
control by EPA have been presented in separate reports. The
Cost of Clean Air and The Economics of Clean Water.  In
these reports, costs were computed separately on an
industry-by-industry basis for air and water and then summed
to arrive at a total pollution control cost for air and
water, respectively.  The two reports, however, often
differed in such assumptions as the growth in industrial
capacity which would be subject to controls and the rate of
interest.  In addition, no estimates were developed in
either report on the combined impact of air and water
pollution control expenditures on the economy in terms of
increased construction, equipment purchases, operating
materials, energy demand, and employment.

For this report, a consistent set of assumptions was
developed and entered into SEAS for the computation of both
air and water pollution control costs.  Impacts were then
estimated through the feedback of abatement-related
purchases to the sectors that produce and sell those goods
in the national economic forecasting model of SEAS.  These
feedbacks include direct impacts on the demand for abatement
equipment and materials from supplying industries, as well
as on abatement-related employment for operation and
maintenance activities in the industries making the
expenditures.  Additional feedbacks were used to estimate
the indirect effects of abatement costs on the capital
required to finance construction and equipment purchases and
on the amount of energy consumed.  The estimated direct and
indirect impacts resulting from these feedbacks are
presented below.
                           4-98

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Capital and OSM Impacts

Each air pollution device and each water pollution control
technology has a capital and an O&M cost associated with it
which can be treated as purchases of goods and services from
selected sectors of the economy.  For example, the three
principal air pollution control devices for industrial
sources - electrostatic precipitators (ESP), scrubbers, and
fabric filters  (baghouses) - have the capital and O&M
feedback expenditure pattern shown in Table 2.  The table
shows that for every $100 of capital expenditure for
precipitators, $48.90 goes to the New Construction sector,
$19.00 goes to the Other Fabricated Metal Products sector,
$10.00 goes to the Industrial Controls sector, $8.00 going
to the Cement, Concrete, Gypsum sector, and so on down to
$0.10 goes to the Paints Sector and to the Other Stone and
Clay Products sector.  Similarly, for every $100 in non-
labor O&M spent on precipitators, $56.70 goes for
maintenance, $42.80 goes for electricity and $.50 goes for
paint materials.

When the full set of feedback matrices shown in Table 2 are
examined, one can get an a priori indication of which
industries will be impacted positively  (via increased sales)
as a result of the pollution control expenditures.  It
appears that New and Maintenance Construction, as well as
Electric Utilities, will experience significant positive
impacts as a- result of investment and O&M expenditures for
air pollution control.
                           4-99

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                                 Table  2.
             Feedback Relationships for Three  Common
                 Air  Pollution Control Technologies
                                  Precipi tators
                       Wet Scrubbers
                                     MI tens
Sectors

New Construction
Maintenance  Construction
Industrial Chemicals
Cellolosic Fibers
Noncellulosic  Fibers
Paints
Structural Clay Products
Cement, Concrete. Gypsum
Other Stone  &  Clay ProdfAsbestos)
Aluminum
Plumbing & Heating Equip
Structural Metal Products
Pipes.  Valves, Fittings
Other Fabricated Metal Prod
Material Handling Machinery
Pumps.  Compressors, Blowers
Motors  and Generators
Industrial Controls
Elec Lighting  and Wiring Equip
Electric UtiIities
Water and Sewer Services
Capital

  48.9
   0.1

   8.0
   0.1
   0.5
   2.9
   4.7
   1.0
  19.0
   1.5
   1.8
   0.5
  10.0
   1.0
Non-Labor
:-  0<5M
           56.7
            0.5
            42.6
              Capital

                52.0
                 0.1
                 t.o
                 1.7
                 0.1

                 6.7
                 3.1
                 3.5
                12.6
                 3.0
                 6.7
                 1.6
                 4.0
                 4.9
Non-Labor
   O&M
                          28.7
                           0.1
                           0.5
Non- Labor
Capita)
49.4

1.5
3.5
0.1
1.2
7.3
0.1
0.3
0.7
4.8
1.3
19.2
1.2
3.5
0.9
. 4.0
1.0
O&M

61.5
2.0
4.0
0.5













                          41.5
                          29.2
                          32.0
                          4-1 00

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To examine the feedback impacts on the key sectors listed in
Table 2, the output of those sectors for several years is
compared for the Reference Case scenarios with abatement and
without abatement.  As Table 3 shows, capital feedbacks
affect industries most heavily prior to 1985, whereas the
06M feedbacks are strongest in 1980 and 1985 when most
plants will be in compliance with air and water regulations.
                          Table 3.
             Percent Increase in Output with Addition of
                   Abatement to the Reference Case

Sectors                   1975        1980        1985

New Construction          14.94        6.15        1.21
Maintenance Construction   3.02        3.06        2.92
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum  12.78        3.41        0.76
Plumbing 5 Heating Equip  11.46        0.59        0.72
Structural Metal Products  8.01        2.94        0.91
Pipes, Valves, Fittings   21.41       16.94        2.45
Other Fabricated Metal    22.64        2.67        0.79
Pumps,compressors,Blowers  7.33        0.71       -0.11
Industrial Controls       22.34        1.13        0.40
Electric Utilities         3.17        3.80        3.20
Water and Sewer Services   2.25        3.57        2.98
These estimates should be viewed as projections of what
would have to happen if the assumptions about the timing of
pollution control expenditures specified in Appendix B are
accepted.  Specific sectors of the economic system may not
actually be able to absorb the amount and timing of
pollution investment shown to be necessary to meet the
compliance schedules with the control procedures discussed
in Sections Two and Three.
Employment Impacts

By the year 1985, the level of employment required for
pollution control activities of the nation's industries and
municipal waste treatment facilities is estimated at 445
thousand employees.  The breakdown by pollution control
category is as follows:
                           4-101

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  Total Direct Pollution
  Control Employment (1985)
     Air Pollution control
     Water Pollution Control
        Municipal
        Industrial
           Machinery, Equipment, &
              Fabricated Metals
           Organic Chemicals
           Electropla ti ng
           Other
          Thousands  of Workers
                 445.2
                  19.5
                 425.7
                  59.2
                 366.5

                 220.1
                  30.0
                  20.5
                  95.9
To provide an insight to the buildup of employment being
used for operation and maintenance of pollution control
equipment, the OSM employment levels for selected years are
listed below:
Total O&M Employment
Industrial Air Pollution
     Control
  Thousands  of Workers

 1977  1980   1983   1985


 16.5  21.0   20.3   19.5
Industrial water Pollution
     Control               150.3 211.1 237.9 366.5

Municipal Water Pollution
     Control                27.6  52.1  57.2  59.2
TOTALS
194.4 284.2 315.4  445.2
These levels of employment are calculated based on a
detailed methodology for each specific industry and
associated pollution control technologies that are operating
in that year.  For each technology, data concerning the
amount of each O6M dollar spent includes the fraction spent
for direct labor and the mean annual gross salary required,
permitting determination of employment levels.

Other effects on employment levels exist due to pollution
control actions besides the direct effects noted above.
These include employment generated by purchases related to
pollution control construction, equipment and materials,
plus general impacts of the induced change in final demand
and industry demand mix on the GNP and industrial outputs.
For example, it was noted earlier that the introduction of
                           4-102

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pollution control equipment in the Reference Case caused
outputs of some sectors  (e.g.. Machinery) to increase while
dampening the outputs of others.

To assess the combined direct and indirect impacts of
pollution control on employment, changes in employment must
be compared to those for direct pollution control
employment.  Total employment at the national level in 1985
is about 215,900 persons greater for abatement than without
abatement, but 445,200 workers of the total with abatement
are engaged in operating and maintaining pollution control
equipment.  Therefore, about 199,200 fewer workers in 1985
are producing output that contributes to GNP based on
present definitions.  This occurs because the 445,200
workers who are working toward "producing a cleaner
environment" are not counted as "producing goods and
services" as conventionally defined in national economic
accounts.

To compare direct and indirect employment impacts of
pollution control over time. Table 4 below provides a
listing of the change in employment between the Reference
Scenario  (S1)  and the Reference Abatement (S2)  Scenario for
selected years.
                          Table ».
    Employment Changes Resulting from Pollution Controls
                  (Thousands of Workers)*
Year
Total
Employment
S1 S2
1977
1980
1983
1985
90,266.4
96,752.0
100,893.5
103,113.2
91,892.2
97,199.5
101,328.7
103,359.1
                                Difference
                                 S2-S1
                                  1,625.8

                                    447.5

                                    435.2

                                    245.1
   Total O&M
Pollution Cntrl
  Employment

      194.4

      284.2

      315.4

      445.2
»S1 = Reference Scenario; S2 = Reference Abatement Scenario.
This table can be interpreted as follows: The difference
between the two scenarios reflects the change in total
employment due to the impact of pollution control on the
general economy.  A comparison of these figures with those
                           4-103

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shown in the last column indicates that the employment gains
directly associated with pollution control dominate or
exceed the more indirect employment effects in the later
years.  However, pollution control capital expenditures
stimulating indirect employment are the primary factor
causing increased total employment up to 1980.
Energy Impacts

The direct and indirect impacts of the air and water
pollution controls on energy use can be determined by
comparing the national energy consumption (in Btu's) in 1985
in the Reference Abatement Scenario (when controls are in
place) with the energy consumption in 1985 for the Reference
Scenario  (with approximately the same 1985 GNP but no
incremental abatement controls past 1971).  This comparison,
presented by consumer class in Table 5, reveals that total
consumption increased by 4.13 percent with increased
abatement controls.  Almost half of this increase comes in
the use of energy by electric utilities, which shows a net
increase of 5.40 percent.

Among industrial energy users in 1985, Industrial Chemicals
accounted for the largest portion of the net increase of
3.57 percent.  Other large increases in energy use were
registered by Steel, Aluminum, and Petroleum,  Several
industries increased their electricity consumption
dramatically when pollution abatement was adopted by all
industries.  For example. Chemicals increased its
electricity consumption by 89 perent, Phosphate Fertilizer
by 71 percent. Aluminum by 31 percent. Steel by 19 percent,
and Plastics by 19 percent.
                            -104

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                          Table 5
        Increase in Energy Consumption with Addition
             of Abatement to the Reference Case
  Consumer       1985 Energy Use*        Percent. Change
    Class      (Trillions of Btu's)     (S2-S1)/S1 x 100
                 S1            S2

Industrial      26,058.8    26,989.9           3.57

Transportation  24,635.8    25,669.6           4.20

Commercial       7,125.1     7,411.6          -0.19

Residential      9,779.5    10,108.3           3.36

Electric
  Utilities     41,110.2    43,328.7           5.40

TOTALS         109,009.3   113,507.4           4.13

»S1 = Reference Scenario; S2 - Reference Abatement Scenario.
Ranking of sectors by
Degree of Economic Change

A final measure of pollution control cost impacts is the
relative effects among economic sectors.  Economic data used
to assess these impacts include outputs, construction
expenditures, capital investments, and personal consumption
expenditures.  Changes in these data for various sectors in
going from the Reference Scenario to the Reference Abatement
Scenario are given in Table 6 for the forecast years of
1977, 1980, 1983, and 1985.

In Table 6 (A), the 10 industries with the greatest
percentage increase in output when comparing the Reference
Abatement Scenario to the Reference Scenario are given.  The
different impacts of capital investment and OSM purchases
for pollution control during the four years can be noted in
the rankings and the percentage changes.  For example, the
timing requirements for capital expenditures for pollution
control equipment are evidenced by the New construction
sector being stimulated by 13.0 percent in 1977 and then
dropping to 6.2 percent in 1980, 3.3 percent in 1983, and
1.2 percent in 1985.  A contrasting pattern is provided by a
major OGM materials supplier. Industrial Chemicals.  This
                           4-105

-------
sector is ranked eighth in 1977 (9.9 percent)  but rises to
third in 1980 (9.5 percent), second in 1983 (9.4 percent),
and first in 1985 (10.2 percent).  Sectors associated with
the extraction of energy ores and sales of energy show
trends similar to Industrial Chemicals.  Similarly, the
peaking and dropoff in ranking of equipment fabrication
sectors is consistent with the New Construction sector
pattern.  For example, note the values and ranks for Pipes,
Valves and Fittings, Special Industrial Machinery, and
Electric Lighting and Wiring Equipment.

The converse of positive output impacts are provided in
Table 6 (B), which shows the six industries suffering the
greatest percentage decrease in outputs for each year.  The
general categories impacted are mass transit equipment,
minor transportation equipment, and personal clothing items.
The level of impact for these sectors is much less than the
level of impact for stimulated industries.  During the late
1970's, the greatest negative impact is only one-third of
the tenth greatest positive impact.  For 1983, the level of
negative impacts for the six industries is much higher than
the level found in 1977 and 1980; yet even then the largest
negatively impacted industry is impacted slightly less than
the tenth largest positively impacted industry.

Turning to pollution control cost impacts on construction.
Table 6(C) provides a ranking of the construction industries
that are most stimulated or depressed for the four years.
The sector of Water Systems Construction is high-ranked
throughout the period.  The increased demand for energy to
meet pollution control standards is reflected in the
increasing demand for Gas Utilities and Pipeline
Construction and Electric Utility Construction through 1985.
The early combined demand for air pollution and water BPT
pollution controls cause Industrial Construction to be
ranked third in 1977.  However, later output decreases for
some industries cause industrial Construction to show minor
declines from 1980 on.  In addition. Telephone Construction
is somewhat depressed in 1980 and 1983.

To examine the positive stimulus on capital equipment
investment, Table 6 (D) shows those industries with greatest
percentage increases for capital investment.  The highest-
ranked industries for each year are usually industries that
would provide equipment and/or maintenance products for
pollution control.  Therefore, for each of the four years,
equipment industries appear in the top four: Motor Vehicles
and Parts, and Hardware & Platings.
                           1-106

-------
Finally, Tables 6(E) and 6(F) provide the major impacted
sectors in terms of percentage change in personal
consumption expenditures (PCE).  Table 6(E)  lists all
sectors having an increase of greater than 1 percent for the
four years.  For all four years, only four sectors achieve
this level:  Trucking Services, Natural Gas Sales, Auto
Repairs, and Petroleum Refining.  Table 6(F), on the other
hand, shows the five greatest negatively impacted sectors
for PCE»s, given that the sector has an annual PCE value of
over 100 million dollars.  Three sectors occur in all four
years:  Buses and Local Transit Services,  Pottery, and
Cycles and Minor Transporation Equipment.   Other products
represented in this negatively impacted group are other
transportation services and, in the 1980»s,  clothing
products.  Thus, the negatively impacted sectors for total
output  (Part B of Table 6)  and for PCE are generally
consistent.
                           4-107

-------
ic Variables
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-------
                THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF TOTAL
               POLLUTION CONTROL EXPENDITURES


Earlier in this analysis, the costs to control air and water
pollution were stated in terms of dollars expended over a
relatively short time period, 1976-1985.  The amount and
timing of expenditures during the next 10 years is
important, but the impression should not be left that total
expenditures decline radically after the first round of
investments in pollution equipment.

Figure 1 shows investment and total annual costs (annualized
capital plus O6M)  for air and water pollution control in the
Reference Abatement Scenario.  Although the year-by-year
expenditures are assumptions, the general trends of the
lines are reasonable estimates of expenditures, given the
overall assumptions of the Reference Abatement Scenario.

Table 7 shows the annual capital and OSM expenditures
required of the industrial sector from 1972-1985.  Note that
in the case of air investment expenditures. Electric
Utilities and other industrial sources demonstrate a peaking
of capital expenditures during the 1973-78 period with very
small annual increments to investment expenditures by 1985.
The total annual costs for stationary sources also grow and
then level off after 1980.  No such leveling off is
witnessed for water pollution total annual costs, but this
might occur just a few years beyond 1985 since effluent
regulations after 1983 may require lower increases in
pollution costs after 1985.

-------
Year
                          Table 7.
                  Industrial Sector Annual
               Pollution Control Expenditures
                  (Billions 1975 Dollars)*
   Air

Annual.
Capital
OBM
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
0.5
1.3
2.5
3.6
4.0
4.7
5.5
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.7
0.4
1.0
1.8
2.8
3.5
4.1
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
  Water

Annual.
Capital
06 M
                                               Total
Annual.
Capital
OSM
-
-
0.7
1.6
2.1
3.0
3.6
4.4
5.4
6.3
7.2
7.9
8.0
8.2
-
-
1.2
2.7
3.6
4.8
5.9
6.4
6.9
7.3
7.5
7.9
11.1
11.5
0.5
1.3
3.2
5.2
6.1
7.7
9. 1
10.3
11.5
12.6
13.6
14.4
14.7
14.9
0.4
1.0
3.0
5.5
7.1
8.9
10.4
11.4
12.1
12.6
12.9
13.2
16.4
16.8
1 Parts may not sum to total because of rounding.
                           4-112

-------
                   Figure  1.
Annual Investments and Total Annual Costs  for
  Air and Water Pollution Control, 1976-1985
                                s «•

                                » .
                                   fctci roturm
                                   »r«. MUM. coin
                                         M (1 (I II 14 M
                                          TIM
                     4-113

-------
Considering O5M expenditures alone, these expenditures for
industries are approximately $16.8 billion by 1985 for air
and water pollution control combined (see Table 7).  Water
O&M expenditures make up the largest part of this total, 69
percent.  The industrial sectors making the largest water
pollution control OSM expenditures in 1985 are;
                       O&M Expenses
                       (Billion 1975$)
Machinery and
   Equipment
Chemicals , Fertilizers
   and Plastics
Food Processing
Ferrous Metals
Pulp and Paper
                            6.45
                            1.83
                            0.77
                            0.68
                            0.61
                                       Percent of Total
                                       Industrial Water
                                             OSM
       55.9

       15.8
        6.7
        5.9
        5.3
A great part of these water pollution control OSM
expenditures go for labor expenses.  This is not true for
air pollution control OSM expenditures however, as shown in
Table 8.
                          Table 8.
           1985 O&M Expenditures and Direct Labor
                Requirements for Pollution
                   Control by Industries
Water Pollution Control

Air Pollution control
                        O&M
                        (Billions
                        1975$)

                           11.5

                            5.3
Direct
Labor
(1,000's)

   389

    20
Employees/
Million $

   33.83

    3.77
Based on these figures, the average water pollution control
OSM expenditures in 1985 are stimulating direct employment
of 33,830 jobs per billion dollars of water pollution
control OSM expenditure.  At the same time, the average air
pollution control OSM expenditures are creating 3,770 jobs
per billion dollars of air pollution control OSM
expenditures.  These figures give some idea of the potential
                           H-11U

-------
employment impacts of 06M expenditures,  which will continue
beyond 1985.
                           U-115

-------

-------
Appendix A
The SEAS System


SEAS is a system of interdependent models and computer
programs developed by EPA to assess the future economic and
environmental consequences of Federal pollution control
policies.  Structurally, the system consists of a number of
special-purpose models linked to the University of
Maryland*s INFORUM, an interindustry input-output model of
the economy.  The INFORUM model develops economic forecasts
through 1985 based on alternative sets of demographic and
macroeconomic assumptions specified by the user.  In turn,
these forecasts form the basic economic inputs used by the
other models in SEAS to develop their more specialized
forecasts.

A generalized overview of the SEAS system is presented in
Figure A-1.  As indicated by the dashed-lined box, two
special-purpose SEAS models have been integrated into a
common program with INFORUM: INSIDE, which provides greater
detail on industrial sector output, and ABATE, which
contains cost functions for abatement technologies.
'Together, these three models form the national economic
forecasting program for the SEAS system.'  This program is
fed1 by two data bases: one contains economic and pollution
abatement costs data; the other, data on commodity relative
prices.  A feedback: loop between the national economic
program arid the PRICES model allows relative price
adjustments to be reflected in the SEAS economic forecasts.
The final output file, containing annual economic and
abatement cost forecasts through 1985, provides input data
for six other special-purpose. SEAS models:

  •  RESGEN - Estimates the annual tonnage of pollutant
     residuals from various industrial sources.

  •  PTRANS - Estimates the passenger transportation
     activity levels and residuals.

  •  FTRANS - Estimates the freight transportation activity
     levels and residuals.

  •  ENERGY - Develops forecasts of energy consumption by
     consumer class and fuel category.

  •  STOCKS - Provides information on the price and
     availability of critical virgin stocks.

  •  SOLRECYC - Estimates the annual tonnage of solid waste
     and recycled materials.
                            A-1

-------
Summary output from these six models, as well as the
national economic program, is then collected in a common
file for the production of summary reports.
                          A-2

-------

                                     Figure A-1.
                       Generalized Flowchart for the strategic
                        Environmental Assessment System  (SEASJ
                              (As Applied for this Report)
                                          A-3
.

-------
A description of the major functions performed by each of
the SEAS models shown in Figure A-1 is presented below.
This discussion of SEAS models emphasizes the computation of
abatement costs and their associated economic feedbacks as a
subsystem of the overall model structure.
                 THE INTERINDUSTRY ECONOMIC
                 FORECASTING MODEL(INFORUM)
The INFORUM model is a 185-sector input-output model which
projects future economic activity using structural
relationships between economic and demographic variables.
These projections determine total demands for the outputs of
185 industrial sectors, and the model then allocates these
demands to the specific markets, or buying sectors, to which
these products are sold.  Thus, the model differentiates
between intermediate demands and final demands.
Intermediate demands are generated by sales from one
industry to other producing industries.  Final demands
consist of government expenditures, exports, imports
(expressed as negative exports), purchases by consumers,
changes in inventories, and savings and investment.  These
final demand components make up what is commonly referred to
as the Gross National Product  (GNP).

Figure A-2 displays a flow diagram of the INFORUM model.
The column of boxes on the far left of the diagram represent
factors which are specified outside the model.  The solution
procedure used is as detailed below.

A trial value of disposable income is coupled with a set of
relative prices, allowing personal consumption expenditures
to be calculated.  These results, combined with the
projections of households and interest rates, are used to
determine expenditures for certain types of construction.
Sales to construction investment by each industry are then
determined by applying the C-matrix coefficients.  In a
similar manner, the sales by each industry to the government
categories are determined by setting assumptions concerning
government policy and defense planning into the G-matrix.
Outputs of previous years and assumptions regarding the
costs of capital are used to forecast investment in producer
durable equipment and industry-related construction.
Investment by industry is then determined by running these
forecasts through the C- and B-matrices.  This completes
determination of total final demands.

-------
The A-matrix of coefficients serves to convert total final
demands to total product outputs by individual industries.
Net imports and inventory changes for each industry are
computed simultaneously.  Labor productivities are then
derived from changes in output and capital investment.
Employment is determined by dividing the product outputs by
labor productivity.  If this result, when subtracted from
labor force projections, yields a level of unemployment
inconsistent with the specified input to the model (i.e.,
less than 4 percent), the disposable income assumption is
modified and calculations begin anew.  Otherwise, the
outputs generated by the model, coupled with the projections
of factors outside the model, are applied to forecast the
next year's economic activity.

For most scenarios run for this report, official government
forecasts of productivity and unemployment were used in
place of those estimated by the INFORUM model and supplied
by the University of Maryland.  These higher productivity
forecasts of the Bureau of Labor Statistics were entered
into INFORUM exogenously.  Personal disposable income was
then adjusted as necessary in each scenario to calibrate
unemployment to government forecasts.  For these scenarios,
INFORUM was thus used to compute the redistribution of
intermediate sales among industrial sectors required to meet
the government projections.
                            A-5

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                       Figure A-2.
Plow Diagram of the Inforum Model with Solution Procedure
                                                          \*
                           A-6

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                 THE SECTOR DISAGGREGATION
                       MODEL  (INSIDE)


The INSIDE model performs two important functions:  (1) it
projects subindustry outputs at the level of detail required
for environmental assessment; and  (2) it forecasts changes
in industrial growth due to technological substitution.
INFORUM is an economic forecasting model which was not
specifically designed to deal with environmental issues and
detail.  Hence, the different goods and services produced
within any single INFORUM sector may have significantly
different pollution or demand levels.  Similarly,
alternative processes may be available within a sector for
producing the same material or product.

Special equations, termed side equations, are introduced by
the INSIDE model to enable SEAS to account for
environmentally-important product and process technology
details not available directly from INFORUM.  These
equations disaggregate the annual sector outputs in dollars
from INFOROM into annual outputs in physical units at a more
detailed subsector level.  For example, there are several
hundred major chemicals embedded within INFOROM Sector 55,
which projects economic activity for all industrial
chemicals.  However, the manufacture of nitric acid
generates the vast majority of nitrogen oxide emissions
produced by this industry.  About 80 percent of the nitric
acid manufactured is sold to fertilizers and miscellaneous
chemicals, whereas Sector 55 sells over 50 percent of its
general output to plastics, non-cellulosic fibers, cleaning
and toilet preparations, miscellaneous chemicals, and
paints.  As a result the growth rate of nitric acid alone
does not parallel the aggregate growth of all industrial
chemicals in Sector 55.  Thus, relating nitrogen oxide
residual generation to nitric acid demand in other sectors
rather than to the aggregate growth of Sector 55 gives a
more accurate projection of nitrogen oxide emissions and
control costs.

Technological substitutions in SEAS are treated in INSIDE by
substitutions occurring among two to four alternative
materials, processes, or products within a given industry.
Examples of two-, three-, and four-way substitutions are
presented below:
                            A-7

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                         Table A-1.
       Example of Technological Substitutions in SEAS
Type of
Substitution

2-Way


3-Way



4-Way
Commodity

Chlorine


Steel
Non-Nuclear
Electric Utilities
Alternative
Processes
(1)
(2)

(1)
(2)
(3)

(1)
(2)
(3)
     Mercury Cell
     Diaphragm Cell

     Electric Arc
     Basic Oxygen
     Open Hearth

     Coal
     Oil
     Gas
     Other
The user specifies the substitution ratio for each material,
product, or process as the fraction of a commodity produced
by each alternative process.  The rate of substitution based
upon these initial fractions is also determined through user
inputs.  Thus, the INSIDE side equations can reflect the
growth of the diaphragm cell manufacturing process for
chlorine at the expense of the market share for the mercury
cell process.
              THE ABATEMENT COST AND FEEDBACK
                       MODEL  (ABATE)


The ABATE model estimates the investment costs and the
operation and maintenance (OSM) costs associated with the
control of air and water pollution for all significant
polluting industries.  It also provides feedback concerning
the consequent increases in capital investments, employment
requirements, consumption levels, and economic demands to
INFORUM.  The INFORUM model then uses this data to
dynamically rebalance its forecasts of economic activity and
produce revised estimates of such macrostatistics as GNP and
unemployment, as well as relative shifts in interindustry
demands and outputs.

The input data required by the ABATE model was compiled
through research into the technological control options and
their associated costs to meet environmental standards.  The
data used in the model corresponds directly to the industry-
                            A-8

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by-industry descriptions of abatement activity given in
Sections Two and Three of this report.  Some of the more
important data inputs are discussed below:

  1. All Categories Except Municipal Wastewater Treatment.
The following data was developed for input to the ABATE
model for all cost categories other than municipal
wastewater treatment:

  a. An inventory of plants, including size distribution of
     the total capacity of the industry category for a base
     year, was developed using the best information
     available from one or more of the following sources:

        Researcher files
        Trade associations
        Professional societies
        Directories of plants
        Periodic publications
        Government research documents.

  b. Capital cost functions and O6M cost functions were
     specified for each standard (State Implementation
     Plans, Best Practicable Technology, Best Available
     Technology, and/or New Source Performance standards).
     These functions relate cost to the physical measure of
     plant capacity used in the plant inventory.  For
     industry categories involved in water pollution
     abatement, cost functions were developed for both the
     full in-plant treatment and pretreatment options.

  c. For each industry category, capital and O&M costs were
     allocated as purchases from INFORUM sectors on the
     basis of the technology option (s) associated with the
     category.

  d. The average life of the abatement equipment and a
     nominal interest rate of 10 percent were specified for
     each industry category to enable the model to calculate
     annualized capital costs.

  e. Compliance years for each standard which applies to the
     industry category and also the year after which all new
     plant construction starts must meet New Source
     Performance Standards were specified.

  f. The number of years over which capital expenditures for
     each standard are expected to be spread and the
     fractions of expenditures for each of these years were
     specified.
                            A-9

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  g. For industry categories involved in water pollution
     abatement, the percent of total capacity in each plant
     capacity class for each industry which discharges
     pretreated wastewater to municipal system was
     specified.

  h. Annual investments and O&M costs for the control of air
     emissions from mobile sources and electric utilities
     were entered into the ABATE model exogenously for
     computation of feedback effects and aggregate air
     pollution abatement costs.

  i. Pollution control costs reflect only abatement
     equipment and O&M expenditures in these simulations.
     Therefore, if a less polluting production process is
     adopted by an industry, a decrease in pollution control
     costs results.

  2. Municipal Wastewater Treatment Data.  The following
data were developed as inputs to ABATE for municipal
wastewater treatment  (Municipal expenditures for this report
were exogeneously expressed based on projected Government
appropriations for sewage treatment facilities.  The ABATE
model was thus not used to calculate municipal costs, but
the feedback features of SEAS were used to estimate the
economic, employment, and energy impacts of these costs.):

  a. Population served and per capita wastewater flow for
     each forecast year;

  b. Capital and O&M cost functions for primary and
     secondary treatment and the cost functions for
     upgrading of secondary treatment;

  c. Percent of wastewater flow to each treatment type and
     the average treatment plant size in each type;

  d. Percent of total population whose wastewater needs are
     met either by replacement of previous treatment or by
     upgrading from primary to secondary or from secondary
     to tertiary, by year;

  e. A similar collection of factors, percentages and cost
     curves for interceptor sewer costs, and for combined
     sewer overflow remedy costs; and

  f. The wastewater flow generated by industies which divert
     their wastewater to municipal facilities for treatment.

The ABATE cost model uses the two types of data discussed
above to generate aggregated abatement costs for each
                           A-10

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industry and for municipal treatment facilities in a
straightforward manner, as follows:

  1. Industrial Abatement Costs.  The model forecasts yearly
capacity for each industry using growth rates calculated
from the corresponding INFORUM sector or subsector and
initial plant capacity class data.  The new capacity is
distributed among the industry's plant capacity classes as
specified by the user.  Capital costs are then calculated
for the average plant in each plant capacity class using the
appropriate cost function (depending on the year and whether
the plant must meet New Source Performance Standards).  The
model then sums costs across classes to get total capital
costs for the year.  For water categories, the model derives
the costs using both the pretreatment and full treatment
cost functions, depending on the fraction of capacity in
each plant size class using municipal facilities.  For these
water categories, ABATE also calculates the total volume of
wastewater discharged to municipal facilities, which is used
to estimate investment recovery and user charges.  Finally,
the model uses equipment life and a 10 percent interest rate
to annualize the capital costs.

ABATE performs a similar aggregation of O&M costs for
industries.  However, for existing plants, the expenditures
do not begin until the compliance year is reached.
Moreover, the model need not keep track of OSM expenditures
spread over several years as it must do for capital costs.
The O6M costs calculated by ABATE for a given year create a
demand for resources that is reflected through feedbacks
which modify the output levels for the affected INFORUM
sectors.  In turn, these changed output levels result in
different sector growth rates, from which the abatement
costs are recalculated for that year.  ABATE and INFORUM are
self-correcting as they use growth rates which are
constantly being revised.

  2. Municipal Abatement Costs.  The municipal portion of
ABATE calculates costs associated with building and
upgrading treatment plants, with laying interceptor and
collector sewer lines, and with the control of the combined
sewer overflow problem.  The new wastewater flow needing
treatment in any year is based on incremental flow from
industrial dischargers to municipal systems and that part of
the non-industrial flow that needs replacement or upgrading.
This new flow is allocated to treatment type  (primary,
secondary, or tertiary).  Average plant sizes by type are
then used to determine the number of new plants to be
constructed.  Capital and operating cost  (minus the
operating cost of plants replaced) functions are used to
determine total cost based on plants to be constructed and


                           A-11

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their average size.  The amount of this cost to be fed back
into INFORUM is adjusted by a user-specified factor
indicating the proportion of this total not already
accounted for in the INFORUM baseline.  A similar procedure
is used to determine costs for interceptors and collectors,
and for correction of combined sewer overflow through use of
incremental cost functions for these categories.

Annualized costs for municipal wastewater treatment are
partially allocated back to an industrial source based upon
the fraction of total wastewater flow it contributes.  This
fraction is applied against the O&M charges for municipal
treatment to yield user charges.  Municipal investment
recovery is computed by applying this fraction to capital
costs, with payment in equal annual installments over a 30-
year period with no interest applied.  Calculations of
abatement expenditures for sewers and for the combined sewer
overflow (CSO) problem is similar except that population
needing sewers is distributed among city sizes, and
population needing CSO correction is distributed among
population groups.  Hence, ABATE aggregate costs are
computed by city size and by population group to obtain
total expenditures for correcting the sewer and CSO
problems, respectively.

For the pollution abatement scenarios run for this report,
annual investments in municipal sewage treatment facilities
were exogenously specified, based on the total projected
funds available from Federal, state, and local governments.
The computations of annualized municipal treatment costs and
user charges were thus constrained by anticipated funding
limitations.
                   THE RELATIVE COMMODITY
                    PRICE MODEL (PRICES)


The SEAS PRICES model, also adopted from the University of
Maryland, provides INFORUM with relative indexes of prices
among commodities.  Two runs of INFORUM for each scenario
are required to make use of the PRICES model.  The first run
of INFORUM produces a different distribution of inter-
industry sales than that assumed in creating the original
set of price indexes.  The PRICES model is then run to
generate a modified set of relative prices to be used by
INFORUM.  The model modifies prices of output from each
sector based on time-lagged constant-price output for the
sector, lagged unit material costs, and lagged unit labor
costs.  Abatement impacts on prices are included in the
                           A-12

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modifications as well as the impact of the redistribution of
sales.  Once the modified prices are determined, the INFORUM
model is then rerun to provide a new forecast of the economy
which takes into account the modified prices.
                THE INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENTAL
                  RESIDUALS MODEL  (RESGEN)
RESGEN estimates the annual national pollutant residuals
associated with industrial production, municipal treatment,
and electric utility processes for six media: air, water,
solid waste, leachates, pesticides, and radiation.  It does
not estimate motor vehicle emissions, storm water run-off
residuals, or emissions from nonpoint sources of pollution
(which consists of residuals associated with land use
activities, such as agriculture, forestry, mining and
drilling, and construction) .  Residuals for these three
types of pollution are currently estimated outside of SEAS
except for motor vehicle emissions, which are forecast by
FTRANS and FTRANS.  For all other significant polluting
industries and utilities, RESGEN initially forecasts the
gross pollutant emissions that would occur from each if no
abatement activity had occurred pursuant to the 1970
Amendments to the Clean Air Act or the 1972 Amendments to
the Federal Water Pollution Control Act.  Then it estimates
primary net residuals, assuming that some specified level of
pollution abatement activity (including none) is occurring.
The difference between gross residuals and net residuals for
each industry is the captured residuals, which include
recyclable wastes.  RESGEN also generates estimates of
significant secondary residuals produced by the pollution
treatment processes themselves.  (See Figure A-3.)
                           A-13

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              Figure A-3.
 RE86EN Estimation Process Flowchart
                              CAPTURED
                             RESIDUALS
INDUSTRIAL
 PROCESS
GROSS
RESIDUALS
TREATMENT
 PROCESS
..PRIMARY NET
 RESIDUALS
                         SECONDARY RESIDUALS
                         CREATED BY TREATMENT
                         (E.G., SLUDGES)

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AS in the case of ABATE, the input data used by RESGEN
corresponds directly to the pollution emissions reductions
discussed in the industry summaries in Sections Two and
Three for and water residuals.  The primary data consists of
gross residual coefficients for specified years and
associated fractions of total wasteload treated, average
removal efficiencies, and rates at which waste materials are
recycled or converted to secondary residuals as percentages
of captured residuals.
                 THE TRANSPORTATION MODELS
                    (PTRANS AND FTRANS)


The two transportation models, PTRANS and PTRANS, use annual
forecasts of vehicle miles travelled by automobile, bus,
truck, rail, commuter rail, and airplane to estimate the air
pollution emissions for passenger and freight transportation
vehicles in six residual categories: hydrocarbons, carbon
monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, lead, and
particulates.

For a given calendar year, the PTRANS model uses the
disposable income forecast from INFOROM and the population
forecast to determine the number of new vehicles on the
road.  It uses data from the 197* National Transportation
Study for vehicle miles travelled by transportation mode and
occupancy ratios to distribute the VMT forecast among
intracity (auto, bus, rapid transit, railroad) and intercity
(auto, air, bus, railroad) transportation modes.  Then it
uses EPA emissions factors to forecast net residuals for the
year.  In the case of automobiles, PTRANS also utilizes
input data indicating the distribution of cars on the road
by model year to forecast these residuals.

Freight ton-mile projections are computed by the FTRANS
model by applying INFORDM growth rates for freight sectors
to base year data for freight ton-miles drawn from
Department of Transportation studies.  Modal splits and
weight loading factors are then applied to develop forecasts
of vehicle miles travelled for trucks, rail, water, air, and
pipelines.  Pollutant emissions are then estimated by
applying emission factors to each freight transportation
mode.  Again, these emissions represent net residuals.
                           A-15

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               THE ENERGY USE MODEL (ENERGY)
ENERGY estimates energy use by consumer class (industrial,
commercial, residential, transportation, electric utility
consumption, and electricity generation) and fuel category
based on INFORUM annual output forecasts for the 185
economic sectors.  For each fuel category, it also reports
whether the fuel is used for combustion or as a raw material
feedstock by the consumer class.  The model provides a
detailed accounting of all fuel usage in quadrillions (101S)
of Btu's based on the interindustry relationships in INFORUM
at the time the sector output forecasts are made.

Because the energy forecasts are based on the INFORUM annual
outputs, any supply constraints caused by relative price
adjustments are introduced into the forecasts.  The relative
price adjustments might have resulted from changed fuel
stock levels (STOCKS model) or from pollution abatement
feedback into INFORUM  (ABATE model).  consequently, ENERGY
is sensitive to a wide range of conservation and abatement
assumptions.
               THE STOCKS RESERVES AND PRICES
                       MODEL  (STOCKS)
The STOCKS model in SEAS provides information on raw
material sources, reserve levels, and relative production
costs under alternative assumptions regarding import,
export, and inventory levels.  The model maintains accounts
for both domestic and world-wide reserves as a function of
relative production prices.  Currently, twelve stock
categories are included, of which six are fuels and six are
non-fuel minerals.  Overrides for prices, investments,
imports, and exports concerning these stocks are generated
by STOCKS as optional feedbacks to the national economic
models.
               THE SOLID WASTE AND RECYCLING
                      MODEL  (SOLRECYC)
The SEAS SOLRECYC model estimates the annual tonnage of
solid waste generated from non-industrial sources, the
expected proportional use of various disposal methods, and
the costs associated with each disposal method.  The model
                           A-16

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also projects estimated levels of recycling, which are fed
to the STOCKS model for adjustment of raw material demands.
               THE SUMMARY REPORT GENERATORS
              (POSTCOMP, INFRPT AND CLEANSUM)
As shown in Figure A-1, each of the special-purpose models
discussed above produces its own detailed output report.  In
addition to these detailed reports, summary data from these
models, as well as from the national economic program, are
collected in a common data file for production of summary
reports.  Three types of report generators were used to
assist in the assessment of pollution control impacts:

  •  POSTCOMP, which provides annual data values and
     annualized percentage changes for significant
     parameters from every SEAS model, as well as
     comparative indexes for pollutant residuals produced by
     each of up to four scenarios;

  •  INFRPT, which provides comparative percentage
     differences and sector rankings in INFORtJM economic
     results for selected scenario pairs; and

  •  CLEANSUM, which provides annual abatement costs and
     residuals for each SEAS economic sector.

Run books for the seven scenarios described in this Section
are maintained on file at EPA.  These books contain both the
detailed model outputs as well as the summary reports
produced for each scenario.
                           A-17

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Appendix B
Scenario Assumptions
                     REFERENCE SCENARIO
The comparative scenario approach of Section Four requires
that a set of assumptions constituting a baseline or
Reference Scenario, be developed and used for comparative
analysis of scenarios.  The consequences of alternative
assumptions concerning public policy can then be measured
against this baseline.  The purpose of the Reference
Scenario is thus to establish a useful benchmark of general
assumptions for comparative analysis; it is not intended to
provide predictions of the most probable future.

The Reference Scenario for this study is based on
assumptions about future trends and policies from 1976
through 1985.  These assumptions, in general, represent
official forecasts of the future made by appropriate
government agencies in their specific areas of
responsibility (e.g., population growth by the Bureau of the
Census).  Table B-1 presents the government agencies from
which forecasts were obtained.  Where appropriate, values
for these forecasts are also given.
                            B-1

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                         Table B-1.
               Reference Scenario Assumptions
Assumption
Population-Series E
Projections
(Millions of People)

Labor Force
(Millions of People)


Labor Productivity
Gross National Product
(Trillions of 1975
Dollars)
Forecast Time Period
Unemployment Rate in
1985  (Full Employment
Economy)

Federal Expenditures in
1980 and 1985 Excluding
Transfers and Pollution
Control Programs
(Millions 1975 Dollars)

Federal Expenditures
for Pollution
Control
Government
Agency

Department of
Commerce, Bureau
of the Census

Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor
Statistics

Bureau of Labor
Statistics

Ford/Council of
Economic Advisors
(1975-1980)
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(1980-1985)
EPA
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Department of
Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
EPA
 Values

 1975-213.9
 1980-224.1
 1985-235.7

 1975- 93.8
 1980-101.8
 1985-107.7

 Varies by
 Industry

 1975-1.47
 1976-1.57
 1977-1.69
 1978-1.81
 1979-1.85
 1980-1.99
 1985-2.40

 1/1/76-
 12/31/85

 4.0 to
 4.5%
1980-156,400
1985-173,400
                            B-2

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The GNP and unemployment rate estimates selected for the
Reference Scenario are intended to represent the current
best estimates of what can be achieved nationally between
1975 and 1985, through a combination of public sector
monetary and fiscal 'policies.  The Reference Scenario target
objectives for the GNP and its components for 1975 through
1985 represent a combination of the Council of Economic
Advisors (CEA) and U.S. Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) forecasts for the period of 1975 through 1980, and the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projected economic growth
for the 1981-1985 period, as contained in The Structure of
the U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985 (U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 1831, op.cit.).
Assumptions about labor force and labor productivity used
are those contained in the BLS projections with the greatest
long-run likelihood based upon GNP supply-oriented (or
potential-GNP) concepts.  These projections are used since
they are tempered by personal income, demand, and
demographic change considerations.

A steadily declining unemployment rate through the forecast
period is required to be consistent with both the GNP
forecasts and assumptions about labor force and productivity
for the Reference Scenario.  The unemployment rate thus
declines monotonieslly over the period from the high rates
of the mid-1970fs to a rate between 4.0 and 4.5 percent in
the mid-1980's.  The annual changes in productivity
presented in the Reference scenario are those assumed in the
BLS projections (Structure of the O.S. Economy in 1980 and
1985, op^cit.L Chapters 1 and 2 and Appendix A).  These
assumptions concerning GNP, the labor force, and labor
productivity replace, for the Reference Scenario, those
originally used in the INFORTJM projections  (Almon, et al.,
1985; Interindustry Forecasts of the American Economy,
op.cit., Chapter 1).

The Reference Scenario assumptions also include the setting
of Federal expenditures for non-pollution-control activities
in 1975 dollars (excluding transfers) at $156,400 million in
1980 ($106,060 million and $50,340 million, defense and non-
defense, respectively) and 1173,400 million in 1985
($115,200 million and $58,200 million, defense and non-
defense, respectively), with interpolation used to generate
forecasts for intervening years.  In addition, personal
disposable income per capita is adjusted to produce, using
INFORUM, the desired GNP and unemployment targets specified
above.

The Reference Scenario represents a calibration of the SEAS
system to the assumed GNP projections and unemployment rates
in the absence of pollution control expenditures induced by
                            B-3


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Federal legislation.  This does not mean that there are no
pollution control expenditures implied in the Reference
scenario because there are substantial levels of such
investments which would have been incurred even in the
absence of federally legislated abatement policies.  The
levels for these expenditures were taken from forecasts
developed by EPA.

The Reference Scenario is intended to reflect neither an
unusually high energy consumption rate nor an unrealistic
energy conservation effort.  The energy consumption
assumptions contained in the Federal Energy Administrations
Project Independence report for the "Business as Usual"
case, with oil at $7 per barrel, were thus used in the
Scenario.  The assumptions are summarized in Table B-2 in
terms of the projected total gross consumption of energy
resources in trillions of Btu»s by fuel source.
                         Table B-2.
                 United states Total Gross
              Consumption of Energy Resources
   (Business-as-Osual Without conservation - $7/Bbl Oil)*

Fuel             1972        1977        1980        1985

Coal             12,195      16,85*      18,074      19,888
Petroleum        32,966      37,813      11,595      17,918
Natural Gas      23,125      21,558      22,931      23,917
Nuclear Power       576       2,830       1,812      12,509
Other             2,916       3,513       1,011       1,797

Totals           72,108      82,598      91,159     109,059

Source: Project .Independence Report, Federal Energy
        Administration, Appendix A1, p.37, November 1971.

» Data shown is in trillions of Btu's.
                REFERENCE ABATEMENT SCENARIO

The Reference Abatement Scenario differs from the Reference
Scenario in that it includes among its assumptions the
incremental pollution control practices, along with their
attendant employment, costs, and effects on residuals,
necessary to achieve compliance with Federal legislation.
(Municipal costs are based on available Federal subsidy
funds rather than compliance regulations for purposes of
this report.)  Most of the unit cost data used for
                            B-1

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               calculation of these costs in SEAS was provided in constant
               1973 doilars.,  Since the INFORUM data is currently expressed
               in constant 1971 dollars,  it was necessary to first deflate
               the abatement  cost input values from 1973 to 1971 dollars,
               and €hen to inflate the computed results back to 1975
               dollars for presentation in this report.  The deflation and
               inflation factors used for these purposes are presented in
               Table B-3.
               Abatement costs are computed and analyzed in terms of annual
               investment,  annual OSM costs,  annuaiized capital costs,
               capitai-in-piacef  and number of employees directly engaged
               in pollution control activities.  Total annual costs are
               computed as  the sum of annual  OSM costs and annuaiized
               capital  costs.   The annuaiized capital costs are derived by
               applying:. to  the annual investment amounts a capital recovery
               factor of:
                                      N
                                     N
               where ^i11  is .the annual interest rate expressed as a
               fraction and ."N" is thek life of the abatement equipment in
               year.s. ,Epr. t'he'ase^ calcul"ati6ns, a nominal interest rate of
               10 .ipefccent, is. ass'umied for both the private and public
               sectors 'and abatement equipment life varies with the type of
               control techno logy being applied.
                                           B-5
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                           Table B-3
     Summary of Inflation and  Deflation Factors'
Type of
Abatement Cost

Water

Air-Electrostatic
Precipi tator
Air-Bui 1 ding
Evacuation
Air-Fuel  Switching,
Afterburners,
Incinerators

Air-All Other
Equipment
Sources

Engineering News  Record

Joy Manufacturing Co..
Nelson Electricity
Cost Index

Chemical  Engineering
Plant'Cost Index,
Nelson Electricity
Cost Index         	

Chemical  Engineering
Plant Cost Index, Nelson
Fuel Cost Index

Chemical  Engineering
Plant Cost Index, Nelson
Operating Cost  Index
   Capital
1973-71   1971-75
0.879

0.708



0.943




0.943



0.943
1.330

2.136



1 .541




t .541



1.541
                . O&M
            1973-71  1971-75
0.898

0.909



0.909




0.892



0.939
1.295

1.718



1.718




2.138



1 .533
  A General  CNP Inflation  Rate of 1.311 was used to convert  GNP estimates from
  1971 to 1975 dollars' (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

  Deflation  factors are for  1973 to 1971 dollars and inflation factors arc for
  1971 to 1975 dollars.
                               B-6

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Federal expenditures and non-defense Federal employment are
both incremented in the Reference Abatement Scenario to
account for Federally funded pollution control programs and
activities.  These increments, which are added to the
corresponding values from the Reference Scenario, are
presented in Table B-4.
                         Table B-4.
   Federal Expenditure and Employment Increments for the
                Reference Abatement Scenario

                                               1985

Federal Expenditure Increment
  Non-Defense (Millions of 1975 Dollars)      +2,561
  Defense (Millions of 1975 Dollars)           +384
Federal Employment Increment
  (Millions of People)                         +0.2
Unemployment rates were calibrated in the Reference Scenario
to near full-employment levels of 4.0 to 4.5 percent during
the 1980's.  The addition of pollution control investment
capital, employment, and Federal expenditures tends to drive
unemployment below these levels.  When this occurs, the per
capita disposable income is constrained in the Reference
Abatement Scenario to reflect a typical inflation dampening
fiscal policy.  The scenario is then run again until
unemployment is equal to or greater than 4.0 percent.

The Reference Abatement Scenario assumes that all sources of
pollution will fully comply with the EPA and state
regulations and guidelines developed in response to the
Clean Air Act of 1970 and the 1972 Amendments to the Federal
Water Pollution Control Act.  Detailed assumptions
concerning such compliance may be found in Section Two (Air)
and Section Three (Water) of this report.
                 LOW PRODUCTIVITY SCENARIOS
The Low Productivity and Low Productivity Abatement
Scenarios differ from their Reference Case counterparts in
that they make use of the productivity functions and growth
assumptions contained in the INFORUM model as obtained from
the University of Maryland.  Compared with the Reference
Scenarios, this reflects a slowing down of productivity


                            B-7

-------
because of shifts toward service industries in the pattern
of final demand, and because of a lessening of the rate of
productivity increase in other industries.  GNP estimates
for the Low Productivity Scenario which correspond to these
assumptions are shown in Table B-5 and are compared with
those for the Reference Scenario.
                         Table B-5.
            Comparison of GNP Estimates for the
          Low Productivity and Reference Scenarios
               (In Trillions of 1975 Dollars)
     1975
     1977
     1980
     1983
     1985
Low Productivity
      GNP

      1.53
      1.67
      1.84
      1.99
      2.09
Reference Case
     GNP

     1.47
     1.67
     2.01
     2.22
     2.36
                ENERGY CONSERVATION SCENARIO
The two Energy Conservation scenarios approximate energy
usage forecasts contained in the Federal Energy
Administration's "Business-as-usual With Conservation"
scenario where the import price of oil is $11 per barrel.
(See Appendix A1, page 46 of the November 1974 Project
Independence Report.)  The energy consumption estimates in
the Energy and Energy Abatement Scenarios each reflect a net
reduction of approximately 13 quadrillion Btu's compared
with their corresponding Reference Case scenarios.  The
following types of changes were introduced to achieve these
energy savings:

  1. A reduction in the household consumption of fossil
     fuels for air conditioning and heating to simulate
     raising the thermostat setting in the summer and
     lowering it in the winter.

  2. A reduction in personal consumption expenditures for
     gasoline to simulate increased carpooling (with an
     automobile occupancy ratio of 1.96 persons per vehicle
     as compared to the Reference case occupancy ratio of
     1.56).  Increased shifts to mass transit are also
     included for the Energy Case scenarios, such as the
                            B-8

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   modal split comparison between the Reference and Energy
   Scenarios for 1985 shown below:
   Intracity         Reference         Energy

    Auto              0.9070           0.8690
    Bus               0.0230           0.0610
    Rapid             0.0350           0.0350
    Rail              0.0350           0.0350

   Intercity         Reference         Energy

    Auto              0.8650           0.8250
    Air               0.0950           0.0950
    Bus               0.0300           0.0500
    Rail              0.0100           0.0300
3. A reduction in the interindustry fossil fuel use
   coefficients for energy-intensive inputs by
   substitution of less energy-intensive industries.
   These measures include: shifts to returnable beverage
   containers, reductions in the use of artificial
   fertilizers, reduced use of packaging materials, and
   some recycling of energy-intensive materials.

H. Miscellaneous changes to reflect improved energy
   housekeeping activities by various industries.
                          B-9

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-------
Appendix C.
Impact of Increased Federal
Grants for Municipal
Wastewater Treatment
A companion scenario to the Reference Abatement Scenario was
constructed which continued the Federal grant program for
municipal wastewater treatment plants through 1977-85.  The
comparative Federal outlay data for this scenario and the
Reference Abatement Scenario is provided in Table 3-14 of
Section Three.  This scenario is identified as the Municipal
Scenario  (or Scenario 2A) .

Table C-1 provides a summary of relative macroeconomic
impacts of the Municipal Scenario as compared to the
Reference Abatement Scenario; the primary statistics show
only small differences between the two scenarios.  The
additional funds injected into an economy operating at full-
supply-GNP require that the disposable income per capita be
reduced from 1980 to 1985 on the order of 0.31 percent,
which reduces personal consumption expenditures on the order
of 0.31 percent.  The major large changes occur where
expected, in state and local health and welfare expenditures
growing by 12.00 percent in 1985 and stimulating public
construction by 10.54 percent in 1985.  Net water residuals,
except for dissolved solids, decline by over 30 percent by
1980^ with a continuing increase in the efficiency treatment
of suspended solids and nutrients over the decade.  This
reflects the continuing upgrading of municipal wastewater
treatment plants.
                            C-1

-------
                            Table c-1.
  comparison of the Macro- Statistics of  the Municipal
Scenario (SA)  and the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2)
                       £ (S2A-S2)/S2 in  %Ji
Statistic                        1977

Gross  National  Product
Disposable Income  Per Capita
Federal Expenditures
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Total  Output
Investment
State  & Local Health & Welfare
Public Construction
Net Water Residuals
  Biochemical Oxygen Demand
  Suspended Solids
  Dissolved Solids    '
  Mutri-ents
Water  Municipal Costs
  Annual i zed Costs
    Capital                     1.93
    04M                         1.50
  Capital in Place               1.93
  Direct Employment               1.48
 1980
 1983
                                                                   1985
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.02
0.10
0.69
30.63
14.59
0.02
14.98 '
0.11
-0.51
0.00
-0.36
0.14
0.11
3.19
13.54
-31 .48
-22.59
0.01
-32.16
0.25
-0.56
0.00
-0.44
0.28
0.25
9.43
20.14
-32.72
-33.64
0.15
-51.10
0.09
-0.34
0.00
-0.31
0.08
-0.03
12.00
10.54
-31 .21
-42 . 99
0.15
-64.71
30.31
31.96
30.31
31.96
94.49
95.71
94.49
95.70
                                                                  124.19
                                                                  125. 45
                                                                  124.19
                                                                  125.47
                                 C-2

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Appendix D.
Estimating the Cost For
Industries to Control
Pollution
                COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY
Industrial facilities are required to control their air
pollution emissions if they are so regulated by a State
Implementation Plan  (SIP) or by Federal New Source
Performance Standards  (NSPS).  Under the SIP program, states
are obliged by the Clean Air Act to specify the emission
controls required by each industrial sector to achieve the
Federal ambient air quality standards throughout the state.
Thus, significant interregional differences in treatment may
exist due to existing ambient air quality at the time
regulations are implemented in each state.  For new plants,
interregional treatment is more nearly identical because
Federal Air NSPSfs apply to plants built or extensively
modified after the particular NSPS guideline for that
.industry is promulgated.  As of August 1975, NSPS's had been
published .for 17 industries.  The NSPS allowable emission
levels .are usually more stringent than those for existing
sources; hence, quite often unit control costs for plants
regulated by NSPS are greater than for plants regulated by
SIP'S.

The deadline for meeting the Federal ambient air quality
standards was July 1, 1975.  Industries have not yet made
the expenditures necessary to achieve their part of the
emissions reduction required to meet ambient standards.
Industries are .continuing to install air pollution abating
equipment, however, and for the purposes of this report, it
was assumed that the required air abating investment needed
by 197.8 .will be made by the end of 1978, when the final
series of standards is to be met.  It is also assumed that
BPT standards for water pollution control will be met in
1977, and that BAT standards compliance will be achieved in
1983.

Seventy-two industrial sectors have significant control
costs .for either or both air and water pollution control.
The .number of sectors within each aggregate industry
classification is shown in Table D-1.
                            D-1

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                         Table D-1.
      Distribution of Industrial Cost-Control sectors
Aggregate Industry

Agriculture
Mining
Food Processing
Textiles
Paper & Lumber
Chemicals
Petroleum
Rubber
Ferrous Metals
Nonferrous Metals
Stone, clay. Glass
Machinery & Equipment
Electric Utilities
Trade 5 services
Miscellaneous

Total
Total
Industrial
Sectors

    1
    3
    9
    2
    6
   12
    3
    1
    4
    9
    8
    5
    1
    2
    6

   72
Air      Water
Cost     Cost
Sectors  Sectors
  0
  3
  1
  0
  2
  6
  3
  0
  4
  8
  5
  1
  1
  2
  5

 41
 1
 0
 8
 2
 5
 6
 1
 1
 2
 7
 5
 4
 1
 0
 1

44
But this listing does not provide a good appreciation for
the detail at which the abatement cost estimates.are made.
For example, the steel-making industry, for purposes of air
pollution control, is a single item under Ferrous Metals in
the above table.  However, 22 different industrial segments
are actually defined, each with its own cost curve for
capital expenditure and OSM as a function of plant size.
There are 497 industrial segments within the 72 industrial
cost-control sectors for which air or water control costs
are estimated.
                    INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS:
            MODEL PLANTS, UNIT COSTS AND GROWTH
In order to calculate pollution control costs, industries
are represented by "segments" and "model plants".  A
'•segment11 is all or a portion of an industry that has:
(1) the same production process, (2) the same pollution
control technology, and (3) the same pollution control
standards.  For example, the Kraft Paper Industry is dealt
with for purposes of air pollution control costs in terms of
                            D-2

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10 different segments.  These segments are shown in
Table D-2.  "Model plants" are the building blocks of a
segment; that is, a segment's capacity for production is
comprised of capacity within a number of model plant size
groupings that are classified as either "existing" or "new"
(new facilities are those constructed after the date when
the Clean Air Act or Clean Water Act first affects that
industry).  For example. Segment 7 for Kraft Paper (Smelting
Tanks)  has three model plant sizes (45*, 907, and 1,361
units of production per day).  There are existing facilities
in all three size groupings,  but, during the 1976-85 period,
new facilities are expected to be built in only the middle-
size class.
          Kraft
         Table D-2.
Paper Industry Segment Definitions
Process

1,  Power
    Boiler

2.  Boiler
3.  Recovery
    Furnace

U.  Recovery
    Furnace

5.  Recovery
    Furnace

6 *  Recovery
    Furnace

7.  Smelting
    Tank
 Control
 Technology

 Electrostatic
 Preci pitator s

 Double Alkali
 Scrubber

 Electrostatic
 Precipitators

 Venturi Scrubber
 Recovery Furnace
 Replacement

 Black Liquor
 Oxidation

 Orifice Scrubber
8.  Lime Kiln    Venturi Scrubber
9.  Stock
    Washer

10. Evaporator
 Incinerate in
 Recovery Furnace

 Incinerate in
 Lime Kiln
Pollution
Standard

Federal
Particulates

Federal
Sulfur Dioxide

Wa sh i ngton/Oregon
Particulates

Washington/Oregon
Particulates

Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur

Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur

Was hington/Oregon
Particulates

wash i ngton/Oregon
Particulates

Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur

Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur
                            D-3

-------
The cost of controlling air pollution from industrial
sources is estimated for model plants.  All existing
capacity is expressed in terms of the model plants, and all
new growth in capacity is also expressed in terms of these
model plants.  For example, existing plants which are
classified into the smallest model plant (size grouping) in
Segment 7 for Kraft Paper  (*t5* units of production per day)
are assumed to spend, on the average, as much for capital
equipment to control each residual as the 45tt-unit model
plant.

To calculate industrial costs of pollution control, each
segment has a capital cost equation and an OSM cost equation
that states dollar costs as a function of plant capacity or
water use, based on the model plants.  The air cost
equations are derived from individual studies funded by EPA
(see Section Two) and the water costs are obtained from the
EPA.Development Documents  (see Section Three).

Each industrial segment is associated with one of the 185
industrial aggregate sectors of the INPOROM economic model
via a side equation.  These sectors and corresponding
detailed subsectors of SEAS are shown in Tables D-3 and D-*,
respectively.  Due to this association, the growth of
capacity or water use  (and the accompanying growth in
abatement costs) in each segment is dependent upon the
dynamics of the interindustry model.  Thus, if a user
decreases the personal consumption purchases of automobiles,
then the direct and indirect effects of this reduction in
car sales will ripple throughout the system.  The abatement
costs for steel industries, aluminum industries and other
industries indirectly impacted by the change in car sales
will be calculated.  In the same manner, additional
purchases by a sector required for pollution control can be
imposed and the specific direct and indirect impacts
determined.

-------
 LODGING PLACES
          172  ADVERTISING
          179  MOlCAl SERVICES
          IT*  FEDERAL GOV.- ENTERPR1SSS
          181 . NON-COMPETITIVE IMPORT!
          164  UNIMPORTANT INDUSTRY I DUMMY I
  2   POULTRY  AND EGGS
  5   GRAINS
  t   FORESTRY AND  FISHERY PROD.
 II   IRON ORES
 I*   COAL MINING
 IT   CHEMICAL FERTILISER MINING
 20   COMPLETE GUIDED MISSILES
 23   MEAT PRODUCTS
 26   GRAIN HILL PRODUCTS
 29   CONFECTIONERY  PRODUCTS
 32   FATS AND OILS
 35   4ROAC AND NARROW  FABRICS
 38   KNITTING
 41   LUMBER AND WOOD PRODUCTS
 44   UOQOEN CONTAINERS
 47   PULP.MILLS
 50   HALL AND BUILDING PAPER
 S3   PERIODICALS
 56   BUSINESS FORMS, BLANK BOOKS
 59   FERTILIZERS
 &2   PLASTIC  MATERIALS AND RESINS
 65   NON'CELLULOSIC FIBERS
 68   PAINTS
 71   PAVING  MO ASPHALT
 74   MISC PLASTIC  PPOCIUCTS
 7T   OTHER LEATHER PRODUCTS
 »0   POTTERY
 83   STEEL
 86   ZINC
 89   OTH NON-FER ROLL  * DRAW
 92   MFTAL CANS
 95   STRUCTURAL METAL  PRODUCTS
 98   CUTLF.RVi HAND TOILS. HARDMR
lOt   OTM FABRICATED HSTAL PRODUCT
104   C?NSTR,  MINING. CIL FIfcLD MA
1D7   MACHINE  TOOLS, M€TAL fGRMlNG
110   PUMPS. C3«P«ESS^*S, BLOWERS
113   IMOUSTR1AL  PATTfRNS
116   SERVICE  INDUSTRY  MACHINERY
119   TRANSFORMERS  AND  SWITCHGEAR
122   WELDING  APP,  GRAPMITF  PROD
125  RA9IO  AND TV  «r:CCIVISG
12B   ELECTRONIC  COMPONENTS
131   X-PAY,  ELEC  EQUIP.NEC
134   AIRCRAFT
137   SHIP AND R04T BUILDING
140  TRAILER  COACHES
143   OPTICAL  • OPHTHALMIC  GOODS
146  HATCHES AND CLCCKS
149   OFFICE  SUPPLIES
1»2  BUSES  AND LOCAL TRANSIT
159  AIRLINES
na  TELEPHON; AND TUEGPAPH
161   NATURAL  GAS
164  RZTA1L  TRADE
16T   CunER-OCCUPlEO DWELLINGS
170  PERSONAL AND REPAIR SERVICES
173   AUTO REPAIR
IT6  PRIVATE SCHOOLS AND NPtt
179  NO DEF'N
182  BUSINESS TRAVELCOUMNYI
183  COMPUTER RENTALS
-------
                                             Table  D-1.
                                   The  subsectors  of  SEAS
SUSSECTOR NAMES
    1  »«F CATTLE FEEOLOTS               5  |
    J  WHEAT                              7  1
    I  CITRUS                             9  1
    »  SOLVENT BASED PAINTS CONSUNP       4  4
    *  GASOLINE CONSUMPTION               4 ]g
   12  KUNICP SEWAGE-TERTIARY TREAT       9 33
   35  OPEN BURNING                       9 )6
   38  CN-S1T5 INCINERATION               * 34
14  1  COAL/SYNTHETIC COAL FUELS         14 30
14 32  SURFACE MINING-EASTERN            14 33
1* IS  COAL    .                          14 36
14 II  COAL-SMC                          14 39
IS  2  NATURAL GAS PROCESSING            It  3
15 90  SOUR NAT, CAS PROCESS PLANTS       IS 31
IT  I  PHOSPHATE R3CK                  •  23  1
23  3  RED MEAT PROC-PROCESSORS          23  4
2J 31  COMPLEX SLAUGHTERHOUSES           23 32
14  1  FLUID MILK.f.OTTAGE CHEESE         24  2
24  4  ICE CREAM c FROZEN DESSERTS       2$  i
«  i  POT*ties                          2*  4
2»  6  APPLFS                            25  T
2* , 2  INOUST COM8UST Of Cl L             24  3
26  5  KHEATtSTARCH & GLUTEN             24  6
2* $1  CCRN n*V MILLING                  28  1
28 30  CANf SUCAft - CRYSTALLINE          28 31
»»  2  INOUST COMBUST OF OIL             35  3
If  3  MOVfN FABRIC FINISHING MILLS      35  6
35 »l  KOVfN FABP. FINISH-SYNTHETICS     ' J5 32
35 14  RAH                   *7 31
47 33  NSSC - A1MONIA                    47 34
47 36  DE INK ING                          47 37
47-72  iKPAFT. - PF(VFNT.SCRUBB5R>         SO  1
53  2  INOUST COMBUST IF OIL             »>  3
55  3  AC»YICNITAIIE                     55  *
55  8  OIKfTHYL TERFPHTHALATE      '      55  1
35 tl  PENTAERTTHHITOL                   $5 12
53 14  TOOPVLENF OXIDE                   55 15
»3 17  ETHYLENE OXIDE                    35 1*
55 20  CHLORINE                          55 21
33 2J  SUIFURIC ACIO                   .  55 24
33 2*  TITANIUM DIOXIOE                  5S 2T
35 30  ACET-MYDR06 OF -^THSNOL           55 31
S3 33  FQRMALOEHYDE-SILVER PROCESS       55 34
53 36  CHLQRINE-KERCURY CELL i           55 37
53 99  CHLO" EXTR-T1T»N DIOX-ILMEN       55 40
33 71  SUUimC ACIO-SULFUH BURNING      :5 72
»  2  NITRATE FFRTILIZFR                51 30
5» S2  TRIPLE 50P«»PHOSPHATE             59 33
61  1  INDUST CO-BUST 3F COAL            61  2
•1  4  CARSON BLACK .                     61  *
61  7  HYDROCHLORIC ACIO                 61  •
COM
APPLES
MUNICIPAL SEMAGE
TOTAL Sm.I1 uASTf. GENERATION
HUNICP SEWiGF.-P«|M»RY TS^tT
K'JNICIPL SfHACE u/3 TRCATHNT
OPEN OUMPING t LAMOfKl
LANDFHL - F?OH mo G3NT40LS
SUSf»CP Cr»L MIMING
SURFACE «I»INC-«?STFRM
COAL CLEANED t ORifo
C01L-LCW PTU MS
TRUOE OIL OOHESTIC PROPUCT.
CTHFR N»T GAS P'OCtSS PIANTS
»W MfAT P^r>t-St»UGHTEI  2
 *  2
 4  5
 4 31
 $YN
TIMBFR PRODUCTS "BICFSSIS'G
INOUST COX8JST OF NAT GAS
NSSC - PULP
PULP - OTHER
NSSC - SOOIU1
QTHER HASTE PAPER
KRAFT -  ftF (ESPI
INOUST COMBUST OF COAL
AC fT ALDEHYDE
CITRIC ACtO
MALEtC ANHYDRIDE
PLA$TICIZ?*S
FORMALDEHYDE
PHTHALIC ANHYDRIOE
HYDROFLUORIC  ACIO
SODIUM CARBONATE
DEFLUORINATEO  PHOSPHATE ROCK"
ACET-OXIO EtHYLEME  H/A1*
CHLORIN«-05APH«Aa«  CELL
SODIUM CiRBOIATC—SOLVAY  PROC'
SUI.FAT EXTR-TITAH  OIOX-ILMEN
PHOSPHATE FCRTlLIiER
PHHSfHATE PRODUCTION PLANTS .
NORMAL SUPERPHOSPHATE
 INDUST COMBUST Of NAT CAS
CALCIUM  CHLORIDE
POTASSIUM DICHROMATE
                                                     D-6

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                                     Table D-1.   (Continued)
                                     The  Subsectors  of  SEAS
 41 10  POTASSIUM SULFATE                 «1 11
 61 II.  SODIUM METAL                      «1 14
 61 16  fTHYUNC/PUPPY L6NE                61 IT
 4i 19  ACRYLATES                         6i 20
 »l M  CENIEtE                           61 21
 61 10  JTX-HYWO TPEAT. PYROLYSIS        61 31
 62. 2  PHEWLIC RESINS                   62  i
 62  9  LOM DENSITY POLYETHYLENE          62  6
 61  1  SYNTHETIC HUBBE*                  64  1
 69  2  INOUST COMBUST OF OIL             6S  1
 6T  I  SOAPS AN9 OFTERGENTS              68  1
 6« 10  M20 :"ILU8L* PAINT TRAOE SALS      68 31
 68 31  SOLViNT. SAS": PAINT INQUSTRIL      69  1
 6«  1  INOUST f.lMBUST OF NAT GAS         69  4
 6*  6  GASOLINE PRODUCT ION               69 30
 6» 12  TOPPING PLANTS                    6» 33
 6* IS  mROCHEHlCRACMMGiNO LUBESI      69 36
 Tl  I  (SPHALT                           72  1
 73  2. IATSX MANUFACTURE                 15  1
 TS 11  OTMEP TANNING                     7» 32
 75 14  HAIR REMOVED/CmiNE TANNING       75 IS
 71 17  SAVf HAIR/VEGETABLE               78  1
 7«  3  PPESSE9 C SLOHN  GLASS             78  4
 78. $1  FLOAT GLASS                       79  1
 79 11  CTHFD STRUCTURAL CL»Y HI IMS       »I  1
 • 1  1  INOUST CCMAIJST OF NAT GAS         81  4
 •1 10  CEMENT - MET GRINDING             81 »
 tZ  2  CRUSHED STOHS                     82  1
 81  2  INOUST CCMBUST OF OIL             83  3
 81  *  STEFl PPOOUCTIOS                 83  6
 81  •  STEFL FOUNDRIES                   83  9
 II 31  BASIC OXY FURN-MTSGR. FACIL      S3 32
 •3 14  ELECT. APC-IC IN FOUNDRY "COO       83 35
 I) IT  OTWP FMPOALLOY *U4NACcS         83 38
 83 60  BASIT rxV.N FUHNAC-'IO GROWTH      B3 61
 •1 61  ELECT ARC FllfNA^F-NI GROWTH       gj 4*
 83.66  IRON *CUNORY - CUPOLA             83 67
 •1 69  FER'OALLOY PROO.-SCPUBBER         83 70
 81 61  BLAST FUPNACSIPIG  IRON PRODI      83 82
 •4  1  COPPFft                            04 10
 I* 12  COPPER SMELTING                   84 33
 (4 IS  SMELTING M/3 ROASTER              84 71
 8»  1  IfAC                              85 30
 16  1  IINC       '                       86 10
 87  1  ' BAUXITE REFINING               .  8T  2
 •7 31  SrCOf'SARY ALU»INUM                87 32
 • 7 34  MEBAKEO AN90E                    17 IS
 88  I  BE^YUIUI                         88  t
 88  4  MANGANESE        .                123  1
 111  2  INTUIT COMBUST OF OIL             L33  3
 160  1  ELECTBICITY 8Y COAL               160  2
 160' 4  ELECTRICITY BY NUCLEAR FUEL       160  5
 160 31  ELECT BY HIGH SULFU* COAL         160 32
 160 14  ELECT PY HTGt                     160 IS
 160 17  ELECT BY NATURAL GAS              160 38
 161  1  SEWAGE SIUOC:  INCINERATION        162  2
 162 II  OPEN BURNING                      162 32
 162 34  ON-SITE INCINERATION              162 35
 162 37  NO OEF*N                          162 38
 163 30' GRAIN .MAND-SM.ALL RURAL FACII      163 si
 161 11  GRAIN H4NO-TERM  FACIUPORT)       170   1
 17011  DRV CLEAN-PFTROl.EUr SOLVENTS      171  I
 179  1  INDUST mxBUST-NtT GAS N.C.C      179  4
,|7» *  CONMtM/INSTITUT USE-NAT GAS      179  7
 179  9  OTHEP INDUSTRIAL USE              174 JO
.SODIUM  CHLORIDE
 SODIUM  SILICATE
 RTX  AROKATICS
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                  .

&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Research
and Development
Washington, D.C. 20460
ORD Special Report
to Congress
EPA-60CV9-77-

      Cost of
  Air and Water
Pollution Control
     1976-1985
    GOO
  FINAL~DRAFT
     L 1977

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Kx
&TA/
  V
                       Cost of
                  Air and Water
                 Pollution Control
                      1976-1985
                      Report to Congress

                        in response to

                    Section 312(a), P.L. 91-604

                            and

                    Section 516(b), P.L. 92-500
                 U.S. Bnvlronmental Protection Agency
                 Library., Koom 2404 PM-211-A
                 401 M Street, S.W.
                 Washington. DC  20460
                         Prepared by


                 OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
                U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                      WASHINGTON, DC 20460

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                           DISCLAIMER
     This draft report has been reviewed by the Office of
Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
and submitted for approval.  However, it has not been approved
for publication by the Administrator, and therefore, does not
reflect the official views and policies of the Agency.

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Section
                            TABLE OF CONTENTS
              EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                                     -Page
                Aggregated Estimates
                Uncertainties
                Highlights
                  Combined Effects
                  Air
                  Water
                  Comprehensive  Analysis
 1
 9
11
11
13
14
              SECTION  I—OVERVIEW
              Chapter I—Introduction
                Purpose
                Scope and  Assumptions
                 Problem  Overview
                 Assumptions
                    Economic Assumptions
                    Energy Assumptions
                    Air Compliance Assumptions
                    Water  Compliance Assumptions
                Pollution  Control Costs:  Definitions  and
                Calculation Methods
                 Direct Costs
                    Investment Costs
                    Operation and Maintenance Costs
                    Total  Annual Costs
                    Costing Methodology
                    Government Program Expenditure
                      Air  Program Costs
                      Water Program Costs
                 Indirect Costs
                Comprehensive Assessment
                Alternative Futures

              Chapter 2—The Benefits of Pollution Control
              Programs
                Definition of Benefits
                Physical and Economic Damage! Functions
                Population at Risk
                Problems of Measurement
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-3
1-5
1-5
1-5
1-8
1-9

1J-12
1-12
1-12
1-12
1-13
1-13
1-16
1-16
1-16
1-17
1-18
1-19
1-22
1-23
1-25
1-30
1-38

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Chapter 3—Pollution Control Cost Reduction
Through Process Change
  Introduction
    Impact of Process Change Upon the Cost
    of a Clean Environment
    Effect of Environmental Standards on
    the Rate of Process Change
    Types of process Change
      Material Changes
      Process Modifications
  Costing Methodology
    Costing at the Unit Level
    End-of-Pipe Costs
      Allocation of Reference Costs
      Waste Reduction and Revised Abatement Costs
  Economic and Environmental Motivations for
  Process Change and the Allocation of Cost Effects
  Costing at the Industry Level
  Industry Survey
  Representative Industry Evaluations
    Copper
      Process Changes
      Industry Effects
    Aluminum
      Process Changes
      Industry-wide Cost Reduction
    Pulp and Paper Industry
      Process Changes
      Industry-Wide Cost Reduction
    Petroleum Refining
      Process Changes
      Industry-Wide Cost Effects
    Inorganic Chemicals
      Sodium Chloride
      Sodium Carbonate
      Titanium Dioxide
      Chlorine
      Industry-Wide Cost Reduction
  Generalizations
    Range of Pollution Control Savings
    Variations Within Process Change Types
      Materials Changes
      Process Modifications
      Process Substitutions
                                                        Page
1-41
1-41

1-41

1-43
1-45
1-45
1-46
1-48
1-51
1-51
1-52
1-53

1-54
1-55
1-58
1-65
1-65
1-65
1-67
1-68
1-68
1-69
1-70
1-70
1-70
1-71
1-71
1-73
1-74
1-74
1-74
1-76
1-77
1-77
1-78
1-78
1-81
1-81
1-82
1-83
                      .i.v

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Section                                                              Page
                               r
  II          SECTION II—The Economics  of Air Pollution Control

              Chapter 1—Summary                                      2-1
                Covernment Expenditures                               2-5
                Transportation Expenditures                           2-7
                Industrial Expenditures                               2-<8
                Comparison of Cost  Estimates  to  the  Last
                Cost of Clean Air Report                             2-11

              Chapter 2—Benefits of Controlling .Air Pollution        2-16
                Health Damages                                       2-16
                  Nature and Effects of  Air Pollution
                  Damage to Health                                    2J16
                  Survey of Source  Studies                           2-17
                Aesthetic Damages                                    2-22
                  Nature and Effects of  Air Pollution
                  Damage to Aesthetics                                2-22
                  Survey of Source  Studies                           2-23
                Vegetation Damages                                    2-25
                  Nature and Effects of  Air Pollution
                  Damage to Vegetation                                2-25
                  Survey of Source  Studies                           2-25
                Materials Damages                                    2-30
                  Nature and Effects of  Air Pollution
                    Damage to Materials                               2-30
                    Survey of Source Studies                          2-30
                More Elusive Damages                                 2-33

              Chapter 3—The Costs  of Controlling  Air Pollution       2-40
                Introduction                                         2-40
                Government Expenditures  for Air  Pollution Control     2-41
                  Program Costs                                      2-41
                  Federal Program Costs                               2-43
                  Expenditures by Other  Federal  Agencies              2-46
                Control of Emissions from Stationary Sources          2-46
                  Classifications of Industrial  Sources               2-47
                  Costs Related to  Required Reduction in
                  Air Emissions                                      2-51
                  Reductions in Emissions Prior  to the
                  Clean Air Act                                      2-52
                  Coal Cleaning Industry                             2-62
                  Coal Gasification Industry       -'                  . 2-68
                  Natural Gas Industry                                2-73
                  Peed Mills Industry                                2-76
                  Kraft Pulp Industry                                2-79
                  Neutral Sulfite Semichemical Paper Industry         2-86
                  Printing Industry                                  2-89
                  Chlor-Alkalai Mercury  Cells Industry                2-92
                  Nitric Acid Industry                                2-96
                  Paint Manufacturing Industry                       2-99
                                    v

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Section
                                                        Page
   II
    Phosphate Fertilizer Industry                       2-102
    Non* Fertilizer phosphorus Industry                  2-107
    Sulfuric Acid Industry                              2-111
    Petrochemicals Industry                             2-114
    Petroleum Industry                                  2-120
    Ferroalloy Industry                                 2-130
    Iron and Steel Industries                           2-]33
    Iron Foundries Industry                             2-143
    Steel Foundries Industry                            2-146
    Primary Aluminum Industry                           2-149
    Secondary Aluminum Industry                         2-153
    Primary Copper Industry                             2-156
    Secondary Brass and Bronze Industry                 2-161
    Primary Lead Industry                               2-164
    Secondary Lead Industry                             2-167
    Primary Zinc Industry                               2-170
    Secondary Zinc Industry                             2-174
    Asbestos Industry                                   2-178
    Asphalt Concrete Processing Industry                2-181
    Cement Industry                                     2-184
    Lime Industry                                       2-188
    Structural Clay products Industry                   2-191
    Surface Coatings Industry                           2-194
    Steam Electric power Plants                         2-199
    Solid Waste Disposal                                2-210
      Municipal Incinerators                            2-210
      On-Site Incinerators (Commercial
      and Industrial)                                   2-211
      Open Burning and Dumps                            2-212
    Sewage Sludge Industry                              2-216
    Grain Handling Industry                             2-219
    Dry Cleaning Industry                               2-223
    Industrial and Commercial Heating                   2-226

Chapter 4--Mobile Source Pollution Control
  Mobile Source Emission Controls                       2-231
    Introduction                                        2-231
    Review of Recent Factors Affecting Mobile Sources   2-232
    Light-Duty Vehicle Controls                         2-235
      Emission Standards                                2-235
      Passenger Cars                                    2-239
      Light-Duty Trucks                                 2-248
      Fuel Cost Increases                               2-249
      Aggregate National Costs for Light-Duty
      Vehicle Emmissions Controls                       2-252
    Heavy-Duty Vehicle Controls                         2-258
      Emission Standards                                2-258
      Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engine Controls               2-259
      Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Controls                 2-262
    Aircraft Emission Controls                          2-265
    Discussion of Unregulated Mobile Source Emission    2-265

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Section
   II
                                                        Page

  Total National Costs for Federal Mobile Source
 jEmission Controls                                     2-266
    Conversion of Mobile Source Control Costs
    to 1975 Dollars                                     2-268
  Transporation Control Plans                           2-272
    Summary                                             2-272
    Introductions                                       2-273
    Overall Strategies                                  2-276
    Measures that Reduce Emissions Per Vehicle Miles    2-276
      Inspection and Maintenance Programs               2-276
      Retrofit Control Programs                         2-280
      Service Station Vapor Controls                    2-282
    Measures that Reduce Total Vehicle Miles
    Travelled                                           2-285
      The Need for VMT Reductions                       2-285
      Strategies to Reduce VMT                          2-288
      Transportation Control Measures to Reduce VMT     2-292
      Additional VMT Reduction Measures                 2-293
      Inspection and Maintenance Programs               2-298
      Retrofit Programs                                 2-302
      Service Station Vapor Controls                    2-304
      Summary Costs                                     2-305
      Cost of Implementing Measures that Reduce VMT     2-309
  III
SECTION III—THE ECONOMICS OF WATER POLLUTION CONTROL

Chapter 1—Summary                                      3-1

Chapter 2—The Benefits of Controlling Water
Pollution                                               3-11
  Health Damages                                        3-13
    Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
    Damage to Health                                    3-13
    Survey of Source Studies                            3-13
  Outdoor Recreation Damages                            3-13
    Nature and Effects of Water pollution
    Damages to Recreation                               3-13
    Survey of Source Studies                            3-14
  Aesthetic and Ecological Damages                      3-16
    Nature and Effects of Water pollution Damages
    on Aesthetic and Ecological Values                  3-16
    Survey of Source Studies                            3-16
  Production Damages                                    3-1.7
    Nature and Effects of Water Pollution                  ;•
    Damage to Production                                3-17
    Survey of Source Studies                            3-19
  Property Value Damages                                3-20
    Nature and Effects of Pollution Damages
    as Reflected in Property Values                     3-20
    Survey of Source Studies                            3-21
                                   VII

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Section                                                              Page

   HI         Chapter 3—The Costs  of Controlling Water Pollution
                Introduction                                         3-27
                  Scope                                               3-27
                  Assumptions                                        3-28
                    Federal  Compliance Assumptions                    3-28
                    Wastewater Treatment  Systems                      3-33
                    Stages of Treatment                               3-36
                    Nonpoint Source Water Pollution Control           3-37
                Government Expenditures for Water Pollution Control   3-38
                  Program  Costs                                      3-39
                    Federal  Program Costs                            3-40
                      Assistance Programs                            3-40
                      Regulatory Programs                            3-41
                    State  Program Costs                               3-44
                      State  Role                                     3-44
                      Aggregate State Program Expenditures            3-45
                    Expenditures by Other Federal Agencies            3-45
                Municipal  Control Costs                               3-46
                  Introduction                                       3-46
                    Defining and Measuring Need                       3-46
                    Defining Cost                                    3-47
                    Status of Public Sewerage                         3-48
                  Heeds  Survey Summary                                3-52
                    Categories of Need                                3-52
                    Results  of the  Survey                            3-53
                    Comparison of Results of the 1973
                    and  1974 Survey                                  3-62
                Industrial Control  Costs                              3-67
                  Introduction                                       3-67
                  Methodology                                        3-67
                    Cost Concepts                                    3-67
                    Modeling and Industry       '                    3-68
                Industry Cost Summaries                               3-69
                  Peedlots Industry                                  3-72
                  Beet Sugar Industry                                 3-79
                  Cane Sugar Refining Industry                        3-85
                  Dairy  Processing  Industry                           3-9O
                  Fruits and Vegetables Industry                      3-95
                  Grain  Milling Industry                              3-101
                  Meat Processing Industry                            3-108
                  Seafood  Processing  Industry                         3-115
                  Leather Tanning and Finishing Industry              3-123
                  Textiles Industry                                  3-129
                  Builders Paper and Roofing Felt  Industry           3-136
                  Pulp,  Paper, and  Paperboard  Industry               3-142
                  Plywood, Hardboard  and  Wood preserving  Industry     3-152
                  Inorganic  Chemicals  Industry                        3-158
                  Fertilizer Chemicals  Industry                      3-174
                  Organic Chemicals Industry                         3-182
                                   Vlll

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Section
                                                        Page
  III
    Phosphate Manufacturing Industry
    Plastics and Sythetics Industry
    Petroleum Refining Industry
    Rubber Processing Industry
    Ferroalloy Industry
    Iron and Steel Industry
    Bauxite Refining Industry
    Primary Aluminum Smelting Industry
    Secondary Aluminum Smelting Industry
    Primary Copper Industry
    Primary Lead Industry
    Primary Zinc Industry
    Asbestos Manufacturing Industry
    Cement Industry
    Insulation Fiberglass Industry
    Flat Glass Industry
    Pressed and Blown Glass Industry
    Electroplating
    Steam Electric Power Industry
    Soap and Detergent Industry
3-193
3-201
3-207
3-215
3-225
3-230
3-241
3-246
3-252
3-259
3-269
3-272
3-277
3-284
3-289
3-294
3-301
3-306
3-313
3-321
    IV
SECTION IV—A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF POLLUTION
CONTROL:  IMPACT MEASUREMENT UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

Chapter 1—Impact Estimation Using the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS)                  4-2

Chapter 2—Scenario Assumptions                         4-4

Chapter 3—Macro-Analysis Results                       4-8
  The Reference Scenario                                4-10
  Comparison of the Reference and Reference
  Abatement Scenarios                                   4-20
  Comparative Analysis for the Low Productivity
  Scenarios                                             4-31
  Comparative Analysis for the Energy
  Conservation Scenarios                                4-48

Chapter 4—Sectoral Analyses Results                    4-64
  Estimating the Reduction in Air Residual Generation   4-64
  Estimating the Reduction in Water Residual
  Generation                                            4-74'
  Estimating the Cost of Pollution Control
  Industry Investment                                   4-86
                                    IX

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Section
   IV
Chapter 5—Estimating Pollution Control Costs
  Comparison of SEAS Investment Estimates for
  Air Pollution with Estimates of BEA
  Ertimating Significant Environmental Control Costs
    Estimating Air and Water Costs for
    Industrial Sectors
    Estimating Air Costs for Mobil Sources
    Estimating Water Costs for Municipal Treatment
    Estimating Air and Water Abatement Costs
    to Government
  Estimating Pollution Control Cost Impacts
    Capital and O&M Impacts
    Employment Impacts
    Energy Impacts
    Ranking of Sectors by Degree of Economic Change
  The Dynamic Nature of Total Pollution Control
  Expenditures
                                                                      4-93
                                                                      4-94

                                                                      4-95
                                                                      4-95
                                                                      4-96

                                                                      4-97
                                                                      4-98
                                                                      4-99
                                                                      4-101
                                                                      4-104
                                                                      4-105

                                                                      4-111
Appendix A    THE SEAS SYSTEM
                The Interindustry Economic Forecasting
                Mode (INFORUM)
                The Sector Disaggregation Model (INSIDE)
                The Abatement Cost and Feedback Model (ABATE)
                The Relative Commodity Price Mode (PRICES)
                The Industrial Environmental Residuals Model
                (RESGEN)
                The Transportation Models (PTRANS and FTRANS)
                The Energy Use Model (Energy)
                The Stocks Reserves and Prices Model (STOCKS)
                The Solid Waste and Recycling Model (SOLRECYC)
                The Summary Report Generators
                (POSTCOMP, INFRPT, and CLEANSUM)
                                                        A-l

                                                        A-4
                                                        A-7
                                                        A-8
                                                        A-12

                                                        A-13
                                                        A-15
                                                        A-16
                                                        A-16
                                                        A-16

                                                        A-17
Appendix B    SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
                Reference Scenario
                Reference Abatement Scenario
                Low Productivity Scenarios
                Energy Conservation Scenarios
                                                        B-l
                                                        B-l
                                                        B-4
                                                        B-7
                                                        B-8
Appendix C    IMPACT OF INCREASED FEDERAL GRANTS FOR MUNICIPAL
              WASTEWATER TREATMENT
                                                        C-l
Appendix D    ESTIMATING THE COST FOR INDUSTRIES TO CONTROL POLLUTION
                Cost Estimation Methodology                           D-l
                industrial Segments:  Model Plants, Unit Costs
                and Growth                                            D-2
                                    x

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r
                                           ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
                     Preparation of this  combined air and water pollution control
                     cost analysis was an extensive effort made possible only
                     through coordination of the hard work of many different
                     dedicated individuals.   The final product is  the result of
                     expert analysts in EPA  and the private sector.   EPA
                     personnel and contractor personnel responsible for various
                     aspects of the report are listed below:
                     OVERALL REPORT MANAGEMENT,
                     INTEGRATION,  AND REVIEW

                        EPA:   Peter House,  Roger Don Shull

                        Control Data Corporation:   Rafael Ubico,  Michael Kranias,
                           Cheryl  Herrin,  Thomas Germack, Bradford Wing

                           Consultants:  Matthew Barrett (Analytic Products,  Inc.),
                           Lyman Clark (CONSAD Corporation),  Jeffrey Krischer
                           (Johns  Hopkins  University)
                     WATER POLLUTION CONTROL
                     COST ANALYSIS

                        EPA:   Donald H.  Lewis,  Richard K.  Schaefer

                        CONSAD Corporation:   Donald McCartney,  Samuel Hadeed,
                           Forrest Arnold, William Carlson,

                           Consultants:   Richard Burrows  (AWARE,  Inc.),  Ralph  Luken
                           (Private Consultant) ,  Andrew Edwards (Vanderbilt  University)
                     AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
                     COST ANALYSIS

                        EPA:   Philip D.  Patterson,  Willard Smith,  Tom Alexander

                        Battelle  Columbus  Laboratories:   Philip  R.  Beltz,  Gabor
                           Kovacs,  Ted Thomas

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COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
        /
   EPA:/ Peter House, Edward Williams, Philip Patterson,
      Samuel Ratick, Richard K. Schaefer, Richard H. Ball

   Control Data Corporation:  Rafael Ubico, Cheryl Herrin,
      Kenneth Thompson, B. Scott Miller, Bradford Wing

   International Research and Technology Corporation:  Marc
      Narkus-Kramer, Richard Meyer

   CONSAD Corporation:  Ronald Adonolfi
PROCESS CHANGE ANALYSIS

   EPA:  Michael Hay

   International Research and Technology Corporation:  James
      Saxton, Richard Meyer, Thomas Jones, Robert Capell
POLLUTION CONTROL BENEFIT
ANALYSIS

   EPA:  Fred Abel, Thomas Waddell, Dennis P. Tihansky

   Enviro-Control, Incorporated:  Alex Hershaft, Theodore
      Heintz, Jr., Gerald Horak
POPULATION-AT-RISK STUDY

   EPA:  Fred Abel, Thomas Waddell

   Enviro-Control, Incorporated:  Steve Takacs, G. Bradford
      Shea


PRODUCTION COMPOSITION

   Control Data Corporation:  Cathy Blank, Donna Cloutier,
      Linda Luehrs, Donna Selby, Dav Davisson
                             Xll

-------
                     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This is the first Agency report to combine the national
economic impact analyses required by the Clean Air Act  (P.L,
91-604) and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act  (P.L.
92-500) into a single, integrated study.  The report is
designed to facilitate comparison of the projected impacts
of the two laws on a common basis, as well as to provide an
estimate of their combined effect on the economy.  It is
presented in four sections:  Overview, The Economics of Air
Pollution Control, The Economics of Water Pollution Control
and A Comprehensive Assessment of Pollution Control.
                    AGGREGATED ESTIMATES
The report indicates that if the nation's economy continues
to recover and grow at official Federal forecast rates, the
total cost to meet requirements of the laws will be about
$450 billion over the decade beginning in 1976 and ending ir
1985.  This amount represents the decade sum of annual debt
retirement payments, plus operation and maintenance (O&M)
costs associated with a capital investment in plant and
equipment of about $170 billion.  The $450 billion (in 1975
dollars) comprises about two percent of the gross national
product  (GNP) summed over the same decade.  This estimate
                 &fi-
does not include expenses for stormwater
agricultural runoff control.
ntrol
                                              ol or      ~^
                                             ^Xjw^-^r^
                   ^
                  V
Pollution control expenditures are estimated to have a net
positive effect on total national employment over the 1976-
1985 decade.  During the period 1976-1979, when pollution-
control construction and capital equipment demands are at
their highest, the increase in total employment is estimated
to range between one and two percent per year.  In
subsequent years, the job requirements related to pollution
control shift toward operation and maintenance activities,
and the increase in total employment is estimated to decline
to one-quarter of one percent by 1985.

Other investigations have indicated that premature closings
of older industrial facilities due to pollution control
requirements are probable in some cases, causing temporary,
localized unemployment.  Forecasting of this complex
economic process, however, was not within the scope of this
study.
                           "1

-------
In developing these projections, a national cost calculation
procedure was employed which allows future cost estimates to
be adjusted to conform with different forecasts of national
economic growth, as indicated by GNP.  This computer-based
adjustment capability is useful because of the uncertainty
and frequent changes associated with GNP forecasts.  For
example, the report examines estimated air and water
pollution control costs for a more conservative growth
forecast (called the "Low Productivity Scenario")  in which
the decade GNP is about 90 percent of the official
"Reference Scenario." Another scenario, referred to as the
"Energy Conservation Scenario," provides for a GNP
equivalent to the Reference Scenario, but with a different
mix of products due to the implementation of certain
feasible energy conservation practices.  Table 1 presents
some summary indications of the impact of these different
forecasts of the future.  Although air and water pollution
control costs change with the economic forecasts,  the decade
costs remain very close to two percent of the GNP.

-------



































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   The calculation procedure also provides for consistent
   estimation of the mass of pollutants discharged into the
   nation*s air and water, based on the particular economic
   forecast and the particular set of pollution control
   measures assumed to be employed.  This report expresses
   pollution control costs as increments occasioned by the
   .passage-and^ implementation of the two laws.  For this
 jy'(purpose, it was assumed that without current Federal
*  'Statutes, pollution control efforts would not have advanced
   beyond those practiced in 1971.  Costs and pollutant
   discharges reported are thus incremental to those that would
   nave occurred by maintaining 1971 levels of control
   throughout the 1976-1985 decade.

   Table 1 presents the results from pairs of future forecasts
  / or scenarios designed to demonstrate the impact of. the
   Federal air and water quality statutes on pollution control
 j-'costs and pollutant discharges under different economic
   forecast assumptions.  Each pair contains estimates of
   control costs  (as a percent of GNP) and pollutant discharges
   (as a percent of Reference Scenario forecasts for 1985) with
v^s.and without the Federal requirements.  The costs without the
'*  Federally imposed controls are zero by definition.  A third
   scenario, the Municipal, is presented under the Reference
 JxCase forecasts, in which the municipal wastewater treatment
 ^construction grant program is assumed to be augmented by $42
   billion (IJL-bJLllion per year for six years) above
    	               Comparing the first two scenarios oiT'tive"1
   Reference Case, it is seen that, with Federal regulations
   and economic growth rate forecasts, the discharge "of'
   particulates into the air and suspended solids into' the
   water in 1985 are estimated to be only 14 and 10 percent, j
   respectively, of what is projected to have occurred durin*
   that year in the absence of the regulations.

   The projected reductions in pollutant discharges are  -v  ,
   translated into improved ambient environmental quality,\ )
   which is, in turn, recognized as pollution control benefits
   by society.  Discussions in Sections one. Two and Three of
   the report describe the techniques which can be used to"?
   calculate various types of benefits on a monetary basis;
   with several examples from the recent literature.  S^bme'
   benefits, however, such as esthetic and other psychic /
   categories, are not yet reliably quantifiable, even though
   subjectively they appear very important.  This lack of
   information, plus the lack of sufficient data for    j\.
   calculating the more quantifiable benefits con a nationwide
   basis, make any total national benefit figures somewliat
   suspect.  For these reasons, projected total national
   pollution control benefits are not expressed in dollar terms
   in this report.                                  ,  f\

-------
Table 2 shows the estimated capital investment schedule forx  ^
various air and water pollution control categories       ff \7
throughout the decade.  These entries represent only the  \&
value of the capital plant and equipment purchased, and do
not include any interest charges or operations and   ^§~^T
maintenance expenses.

Table 3 presents total cost information for the decade.
Total cost is defined as the sum of annual!zed capital costs
plus operation and maintenance costs.  Annualized capital
costs are derived by amortizing capital investment at an
interest rate of 10 percent over the life of the equipment.
This can be thought of as repayment of a capital loan at 10
percent interest over the life of the capital plant and
equipment.  The approximate cost of capital to
municipalities is roughly 6 percent  (tax-free bonds), which
is the rate used in construction grant cost-effectiveness
analyses... This, report considers the cost of capital to the
nation, which is defined by the Office of Management and
Budget as roughly 10 percent.  All investments are amortized
at the -same interest rate in this report, so they can be
compared on an ,equivalent basis.  Both sets of costs are
significant:  the investment represents the value of plant
and equipment that must be produced and delivered by the
pollution control" industry and related suppliers.  The total
cost is an estimate of the actual costs which must be borne
by the purchaser to buy and operate the pollution'"control
equipment .and facilities.

The Stationary Source category in the Air section and the
Industrial, category in the Water section contain some minor
adjustments from thfe computer output values due to recent
receipt of data from detailed studies of selected
industries.   Discussion of these adjustments is presented in
the individual industry analyses in Sections 2 and 3.

Since pollution control equipment must be continually
operated and maintained and periodically replaced, and new
equipment must be purchased for industrial or public service
growth, total annual costs are continually increasing.   The
nation must be willing to accept these costs as a permanent
part of the national budget if desired environmental quality
is to be restored and maintained.  Figure 1 shows how total
annual costs will grow from $25 billion to $60 billion over
the decade.

-------
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-------
                        Figure 1.
              Total Annual Expenditures for ;
             Air and Mater Pollution Control
    ^)65 -T
58
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< E
         76   77   78  79   80   81   82   83  84   85
                                                    GRAND TOTALS
                                                    AIR + WATER
                                                    TOTAL AIR


                                                    TOTAL WATER
                            8

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                       UNCERTAINTIES
Whenever a new estimate of national pollution control costs
is produced, there is a natural tendency to compare it with
related estimates developed by other parties.  Such efforts
frequently show considerable discrepencies between estimates
for ostensibly the same cost categories,  such discrepencies
are, in fact, to be expected, due to the vast number of
conditions which must be specified to assure that even the
category of cost analysis is identical between two different
estimates.

Probably the most difficult problem in preparing a
comprehensive assessment of this nature, in this particular
period of the national environmental programs, is keeping
the cost estimates current with respect to the rapidly
changing regulation situation.  Keeping the economic data
base current in the face of the frequent changes in
regulations due to legislative, administrative, and judicial
decisions is both expensive and time-consuming.  Because of
resource constraints, the data in this report are consistent
with regulations existing in early 1976.  Thus, any economic
studies of the impact of regulations proposed, promulgated,
remanded, or suspended- after early 1976 will be at variance
with values presented herein.

For each industrial category, assumptions must be made as to
what types of technology will be generally applied to
achieve the effluent or emission requirements.  Estimates
must then be made for the variation of capital and operation
and maintenance costs with respect to age, size, and
location of the many plants within the industrial category.
This area is probably the greatest source of disagreement in
the field of pollution control cost estimating.

Economic variables are another cause of discrepancies;
dollar value deflators, interest rates, equipment lifetimes,
wage rates, energy and material costs, economic growth
rates, capital availability, and other factors must all be
estimated and projected into the future to produce an
estimate of pollution control costs over a period of years.

The level of detail of data and calculations may also cause
variability in estimates for the same category.  Agency
resources do not permit exhaustive investigations of all
plants in any particular industrial category.  Hence,
estimates must be made by extrapolating from a small set of
data obtained from "typical" facilities.  For example, most
estimates of industrial control expenditures in tljis report
are based on only two to four plant size categories.  For a

-------
few important industrial categories where this general
estimation procedure was considered insufficient,
significant resources were expended oh special detailed
environmental cost analyses.  Results of these through
studies were sometimes at variance with the more approximate
estimates, as discussed in Sections Two and Three.

In addition, the particular purpose of the estimates may not
be exactly the same.  The estimates in this report represent
the expenditures which would probably be incurred if all
parties met the regulations on schedule by installing an
assumed particular type of equipment.  The resulting
forecasts are thus unrealistic to the extent that polluting
activities fail to meet all requirements on schedule.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of
Commerce conducts periodic surveys of industries to estimate
actual pollution control expenditures.  These estimates are
nearly twice as high as EPA estimates in some industrial
categories and less than one-fifth the EPA estimates in
others.  These differences can be attributed to variations
in industry category definition, slower or faster equipment
installation schedules, different judgements of the amount
of industrial expenditures for process modification which
can be properly attributed to pollution reduction, and the
probable statistical errors in BEA's industrial
questionnaire sampling process.  Chapter 3 in this Section
discusses the impact that process modifications can have on
pollution reduction and the difficulties involved in
apportioning costs between pollution control and production
cost accounts.

The closest parallel to the estimates in this report are the
estimates for the cost of water pollution control recently
prepared by the National commission on Water Quality.  The
Commission's estimates involve the same effluent
limitations, and many of the same economic assumptions and
industrial category definitions.  Some of the industrial
category cost estimates compare very closely, but there are
still categories which differ significantly.  These
differences are attributed primarily to  (1) uncertainties in
plant inventories in those industries characterized by large
numbers of small plants,  (2) differences in professional
judgement on what process would most likely be applied to
achieve the required effluent quality,  (3) differences in
industrial growth rates and plant size trends over the
decade, and  (4) different assumptions about the current
status of pollution control in the industries  (capital-in-
place) .
                            10

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To summarize, variations in estimates of national activities
of this level of complexity are to be expected, but detailed
examination of the data and calculation procedures can
usually explain the reasons for the variations.  The general
economic assumptions used in this report are explicitly
stated in Sections One and Four of the report, and industry
descriptions and pollution control process descriptions are
described in considerable detail in Sections Two and Three.
                         HIGHLIGHTS
Combined Effects
In terms of pollution control investment relative to total
investment projected in the various/sectors, the top five    /
categories become Leather fanning,/Dairy_Products, Electric  ^
Utilities, Pulp and^Paper.,__and_Meat and Poultry,  and Canned
and Frozen Foods,  ^"his paVamete^r projects a more severe    \-
impact, with Leather—Tanrri'ficf~being required to spend over 70
percent of its total decade investment on pollution control.
The lowest of the five, is anticipated to spend close to 17
percent of its total investment on pollution control,  would
be directed toward water pollution control.  The percentages
on which these impacts are based for the entire industrial
community are shown in Table 4.  Greater detail for this
type of analysis may be found in Section Four.
                                                                
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                          Table a.
         Ranking of Impacted Sectors by Abatement
       Investment as Percentages of Total Investment
                        (1976-1985)
                                      Investment
Leather Tanning
Dairy
Electric Utilities
Pulp 8 Paper
Meat 6 Poultry
Canned 6 Frozen Pood
Grain Milling,
  Feed Mills
Fabricated Metals
  and Electroplating
Machinery
Iron & Steel
Chemicals
Petroleum & Asphalt
Plastics & Synthetics
Fertilizers
Asbestos, Clay,
  Lime, and Concrete
Nonferrous Metals
Transportation Equip.
Glass
Lumber 6 Wood Products
Textiles
Builder's Paper
Beet 5 Cane Sugar
Furniture
Rubber Products
Paints
Wholesale & Retail
Mining
Natural Gas
Printing
Agriculture
Services
                             Air
                         Rank   %
 2
 7
17
 4
 9
 5
11
 8

 3
 6
18
15
10

12
13
11
16
19

20
14.2
 4.1
     15.4
 0.2
 6.3
 1.7
 4.3
 0.7
 1.8

 5.4
 4.1
 0.1
 0.3
 1.4

 0.5
 0.5
 0.4
 0.2
 0.1

 0.0
Water
Rank
1
2
13
6
2
4
24
5
7
10
8
12
9
11
22
21
14
15
16
17
18
19
%
72.1
19.7
3.7
13.4
17.3
15.8
0.0
15.2
11.9
5.6
8.9
5.2
7.0
5.3
0,2
0.9
3.4
2.8
2.4
1.9
1.9
1.4
20
0.9
23
0.1
Both
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
%
72.1
19.7
17.9
17.5
17.3
15.8
15.4
15.2
12.1
11.8
10.5
9.4
7.7
7.1
5.6
5.0
3.5
2.8
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.4
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.2
0. 1
0.1
0.0
                            12

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Air

Comparing air pollution control investment to total project
investment in the categories, the most severely impacted
industries become Grain Milling and Feed Mills; Electric
Utilities; Asbestos, Clay, Lime and Concrete; Iron & Steel;
and Petroleum and Asphalt, with their relative pollution
control investments ranging between H and 15.4 percent.
Table H presents these rankings for the entire industrial
community of 20 aggregate categories.

Since it is now apparent that many stationary sources did
not meet the 1975 target for installation of controls, it is
no longer logical to assume that all sources meet all
requirements according to specified schedules in the State
Implementation Plans.  Instead, it is now assumed that
stationary controls will be installed according to a more
realistic schedule as proposed in a 1975 EPA report on "The
Economic Impact of Pollution Control:  Macroeconomic and
Industry Reports," wherein all sources are brought within
compliance by 1981.  This change shifts investments into
later years in the decade as reported in Section 2.

Chapter * of Section Two discusses mobile source emission
control costs.  Costs in this category are significantly
different than earlier estimates due to a variety of
factors, including changes in standards, changes in lead-
content phase-out schedules, changes in projected average
age and weight of the automobile population, and other
conditions related to the recent energy shortage problems.

In metropolitan areas where mobile emission control devices
are not sufficient to guarantee achievement of ambient air
quality standards, additional efforts are required, such as
transportation control plans.  An important factor in these
plans is inspection and maintenance programs, wherein all
vehicle owners are required to have periodic inspection and
required maintenance for both engine performance and
emission controls performance,  such maintenance, while
costly, results in better gas mileage, which translates into
an economic benefit .to the owner.  Estimates of fuel savings
have been calculated in this analysis.  Using assumed fuel
cost projections, the inspection and maintenance programs
actually result in a net economic benefit to the nation in
addition to improving air quality.  Details of these
estimates are shown at the end of Section Two.
                            13

-------
water

The five industrial categories most severely impacted by
water pollution control regulations on a total investment
basis are Leather Tanning, Dairy Products, Meat and Poultry,
Canned and Frozen Food, and Fabricated Metals and
Electroplating, whose water pollution investments range from
15 to 72 percent of total projected investments.  (These
investment figures include municipal investment recovery
charges for those plants discharging mumicipal sewers) .  The
rankings for all 24 water-using industrial categories are
presented in Table 4.

Because of the recently completed municipal wastewater
treatment Needs Survey, and the overriding constraints of
the Construction Grant Program on the rate of expenditure
for Municipal facilities, costs were not calculated based
upon meeting requirements, but rather, consist of the.$20.8
billion of Federal funds scheduled for outlay during the
decade, required matching funds from local governments  (25
percent of total investment) , $600 million estimated to be
spent irrespective of Federal grants, plus operation and
maintenance (O&M), and finance charges associated with the
aforementioned investments.  Other Agency documents have
discussed the need for a greater amount of Federal grant
funds.  Section Three, accordingly, includes an analysis of
the impact of a potential augmentation of the Construction
Grant Program.

Because of the rapidly changing situation with regard to
nonpoint source pollution from urban and rural stormwater
runoff, and because control.of this type of pollution is
primarily dependent upon plans issuing from the P. L. 92-500
"208" planning process in late 1978, no estimate of the
types or levels of these controls is currently available.
Therefore, there are no estimates for costs of urban
stormwater pollution nor agricultural runoff pollution
control in this report.


Comprehensive Analysis

Section Four describes the analytical procedures used to
develop pollution control cost forecasts on a year-by-year
basis over the decade.  By using the "input/output" national
economic analysis technique of the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System, individual industrial category growth
rates are derived which are consistent with the aggregate
national GNP growth forecasts of each scenario.  This
approach eliminates the problem of obtaining individual
growth rates from a number of different sources with varying
                             14

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accuracies and differing base assumptions.  The projected
growth rates are used in the cost analysis to provide an
indication of the number of facilities subject to new source
performance standards in both air and water pollution
control.

The analysis of pollution control expenditures over the
decade, as presented in this report, provides the Agency
with a longer-range view of its programs and a better
understanding of the interrelationships and time phasing of
its many different programs.  In addition, the 10-year
forecast horizon should be sufficient to accommodate most
delays in compliance and still provide stable estimates of
total costs and related impacts.  The assessment system also
provides an estimate of the total amount of residuals
discharged to air, water, and land disposal, rather than
studying any single environmental medium in isolation.  This
allows for an analysis of potential secondary pollution
caused by primary pollution control processes, a concept
brought to the fore by the National Environmental Policy Act
of 1969.

Finally, the existence of a systematic, fully documented set
of data and calculation procedures provides for more
defensible cost estimates, and quickly pinpoints particular
problem areas whenever the aggregate cost estimates are
challenged.  Negotiation and resolution of these detailed
areas of conjecture continually carry us toward improved
estimates which should result in fewer and fewer areas of
disagreement as new cost estimates are developed.
                            15


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                        Section One

                          OVERVIEW

Chapter 1
Introduction
                          PURPOSE
Standards for the control of air and water pollution have
been developed to implement the requirements of the Clean
Air Act (P.L. 91-601) and the Federal Water Pollution
Control Act  (P.L. 92-500).  Under the provisions of sections
312(a) and 516(b) of these acts, respectively, the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the responsibility
of submitting regular reports to Congress regarding the cost
of pollution controls necessary to achieve the legislated
standards.

Two series of six reports each have been previously
submitted to Congress on the Economics of Clean Water and
the Cost of Clean Air.  The last submittals were a 1973
biannual report on water and a 1974 annual report on air.
In this issue, the two reports have been combined into a
single integrated report to provide a comprehensive
assessment of both air and water pollution control.
                   SCOPE AND ASSUMPTIONS
This report presents the best available EPA estimates of the
national costs of complying with the Clean Air Act and the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act over the next decade,
1976-85.  It begins with an overview section which presents
a discussion of those issues common to the study of both air
and water pollution control.  The next two sections present
the costs of pollution control for air and water,
respectively, together with estimates of the reduction in
environmental pollution effected by the controls.  The
fourth and final section presents an analysis of the
economic impacts and tradeoffs associated with these costs.
Particular emphasis is placed on illustrating how these
                            1-1

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impacts and tradeoffs might change under alternative sets of
assumptions about future economic activity and energy
conservation policies.

Included in the overview (Section One)  is a presentation of
the basic assumptions and general approach taken in the
development of control costs and in the analysis of the
consequent impacts of these costs.  This is followed by a
discussion of the concept of benefits as applied to the
economic analysis of pollution control.  Finally, the
economic advantages of controlling pollution through process
changes are presented.  Five major industries are used as
examples in this analysis:   Copper, Aluminum, Pulp and
Paper, Petroleum Refining,  and Inorganic Chemicals.

Both Sections Two and Three begin with a brief summary
followed by a discussion of the estimated types of damages
resulting from pollution.  In Section Two, the cost of
controlling air pollution is presented in terms of
government program expenditures, industry and utility
control costs, and transportation control costs.  Section
Three, on the cost of controlling water pollution, also
includes a presentation of government program expenditures,
followed by municipal and industrial cost estimates.

A comparative analysis approach is taken in Section Four to
examine the relative impact of pollution control under
alternative futures or scenarios.  Included in this
presentation is an examination of the gains and losses
experienced by consumers and by individual industries which
spend and/or receive funds for pollution abatement.

wherever possible, the national pollution abatement costs,
the economic impacts and tradeoffs, and the associated
environmental changes that have been estimated and presented
in this report are those that would not have occurred
without Federal legislation.  Specifically, it is assumed
that, in the absence of the two laws, the amount of
pollution discharged per unit of production  (or per person
for sewage, or per mile for vehicles) would have remained
the same as in 1971.  A pre-legislation baseline, defined in
terms of 1971 pollution control technology levels, is thus
established, and all costs, impacts, tradeoffs, and
environmental changes are measured as differences from that
baseline.
                            1-2

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Problem Overview

Both the comprehensive assessment of pollution control and
also the industry-by-industry estimates of pollution control
expenditures and pollution reduction are presented at the
national level.  Although more detailed information is
provided in some instances, this information is presented
primarily to enhance an understanding of the basis
established for the national aggregated estimates.

Estimating the control costs and the quantities of
pollutants produced on a national basis is a complicated
process.  Not only are there a large number of pollution
sources, but each source could emit a number of pollutants
that can be controlled separately or jointly by several
alternative control technologies.  Conversely, each specific
pollutant can be traced to a considerable number of
different sources.  The costs of control are most
conveniently estimated by source, even though they will
usually cover more than one pollutant for each source.  On
the other hand, levels of pollution are more easily examined
by pollutant; these levels are estimated by aggregating
emissions by pollutant across all sources of that pollutant.
                                     j
A general overview of the relationships among sample
sources, pollutants, effects, and control technologies is
presented in Table 1.  Discussions of these relationships
are found for each industry affected by Federal pollution
control legislation in Sections Two and Three of this
report.
                            1-3

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Assumptions

The Federal pollution control legislation ultimately
requires industries, consumers (transportation vehicles),
and municipalities to lessen or completely eliminate their
discharges of pollutants into the nation's atmosphere and
waterways.  Hence, these pollution contributors must spend a
portion of their money resources for pollution abatement
regardless of the state of the economy.  However, pollution
control expenditures are not independent of the state of the
economy because the level of economic activity affects the
level of production, which in turn affects the amount of
pollution generated by industries, consumers, and
municipalities.  Consequently, the forecasts of pollution
control expenditures are based on corresponding forecasts of
national economic activity.

Forecasts of pollution control expenditures must also be
based upon explicit assumptions about the rate of compliance
with pollution control legislation.  The assumed timetables
for installing pollution abatement equipment are given later
in this Introduction as part of the compliance assumptions
for this report.  All cost estimates presented in this
report are expressed in 1975 dollars unless otherwise noted.
In addition, annual costs apply to calendar years unless
specified differently.
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

A consistent set of economic assumptions is the basis for
the cost estimates presented in this report.  These
assumptions were used to produce a "Reference Case" forecast
of the O.S. economy and are summarized in Table 2.  An
alternative set of economic assumptions is presented in
Section Four; the pollution control cost and pollutant
discharge estimates corresponding to this alternative
scenario enable us to evaluate possible variations from the
Reference Case estimates introduced by different economic
assumptions.
ENERGY ASSUMPTIONS

The energy assumptions for Reference Case pollution control
forecasts are taken from the Federal Energy Administration's
"Business as usual" scenario in the November 1971 Project
                            1-5

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Independence Report where the import price for oil is $7 per
barrel; they are summarized in Table 3.
                            1-6

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                          Table 2.
            Reference Case Economic Assumptions
Economic
Assumption
Population-series E
Projections
(Millions of People)

Labor Force
(Millions of People)
Labor Productivity
Gross National Product
(Trillions of
1975 Dollars)
Forecast Time Period
Unemployment Rate in
1985 (Full Employment
Economy)

Nominal Interest Rates
Federal Expenditures in
1980 and 1985 Excluding
Transfers and Pollution
Control Progress.
(Millions of 1975
Dollars)

Federal Expenditures
for Pollution Control
Government
Agency

Bureau of the
Census
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Bureau of Labor
Statistics

Council of
Economic Advisors
(1975-1980) Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(1980-1985)
EPA


Bureau of Labor
statistics
Office of Manage-
ment and Budget

Department of
Commerce, Bureau
of Economic
Analysis
EPA
 Values

 1975-213.9
 1980-224.1
 1985-235.7

 1975- 93.8
 1980-101.8
 1985-107.7

 Varies by
 Industry

 1975-1.47
 1976-1.57
 1977-1.69
 1978-1.81
 1979-1.85
 1980-1.99
 1985-2.40

 1/1/76 -
 12/31/85

    4.5%
 Public-10%
 Private-10%

1980-5156,400
1985-$173,400
                            1-7

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                          Table 3.
          United states Total Gross Consumption of
       Energy Resources (In Trillions of Btu's/Year)
     (Business-as-Usual without Conservation-$7/Bbl Oil)
  Fuel              1972

Coal               12,495
Petroleum          32,966
Natural Gas        23,125
Nuclear Power         576
Other               2,946

TOTALS             72,108
 1977

16,854
37,813
21,558
 2,830
 3,543
 1980

18,074
41,595
22,934
 4,842
 4,014
 1985

19,888
47,918
23,947
12,509
 4,797
82,598      91,459     109,059
Source: Projectindependence Report, Federal
        Energy Administration, Appendix A1, p.37,
        November 1974.
AIR COMPLIANCE ASSUMPTIONS

EPA regulations and Federal legislation related to the Clean
Air Act of 1970 apply different levels and modes of air
pollution controls to these specific pollution source
categories: mobile sources  (transportation vehicles),
existing stationary sources of air pollution, new stationary
sources of air pollution, and sources of hazardous
pollutants.  The Clean Air Act and the cost estimates
presented in this report are based on the principle that
pollutant emissions will be brought under whatever level of
control is necessary to achieve national primary ambient air
quality standards.  However, for many different reasons,
many industries have not met the July 1, 1975, compliance
date originally set for existing stationary sources.
Similarly, the original dates and standards established for
transportation vehicles have been changed.  The specific
assumptions for each source category are described below:

  1. Mobile sources (Transportation Vehicles).  The
emissions standards and the compliance schedule which must
be met by mobile sources are presented in Section Two of
this report (see Mobile Sources and State Transportation
Control Plans).  The assumed compliance dates reflect the
delayed implementation of standards for reduced hydrocarbons
                            1-8

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and carbon monoxide emissions from light-duty vehicles from
model year 1977 to model year 1978.

  2. Stationary Sources (Existing).  Stationary sources of
air pollution (industrial plants, electric utilities) which
existed at the time of passage of the Clean Air Act are
regulated by approved State Implementation Plans (SlP's).
The standards assumed for each industry and for utilities
are given in the industry summaries in Section Two of the
report.  Most SIP'S require compliance by July 1, 1975, but
achievement of this goal would imply a peaking of investment
which did not occur in 1974 and 1975.  Hence, except for
sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities, all existing
stationary sources are assumed to be moving toward full
compliance at an extended expenditure rate, as given in the
Summary for Section Two.  A compliance date of January 1,
1981, is assumed for sulfur dioxide from utilities.

  3. Stationary Sources (New).  New sources of air pollution
include new industrial plants built since the passage of the
Clean Air Act and also existing plants which have made
certain modifications in their facilities.  These sources
are assumed to comply with EPA New Source Performance
Standards (NSPS) except where such standards have not yet
been developed or where SIP standards are more stringent.
In these latter two cases, SIP standards are assumed.  New
pollution sources are assumed to be in compliance with these
standards when they go into operation.  The exact standards
being assumed are given in the appropriate sections in
Section Two.
WATER COMPLIANCE ASSUMPTIONS

Unlike the Clean Air Act, the 1972 Amendments to the Federal
Water Pollution control Act prescribe full Federal
regulation of water pollutant sources, except as redelegated
to specified states.  In addition to setting ambient water
quality standards to be met by 1983, the act specifies the
levels of control technology to be utilized by industrial
and municipal pollution sources by July 1, 1977 and by July
1, 1983.  EPA has defined these technologies for most major
industrial pollution sources in effluent guidelines
documents.  It enforces the act through permit programs in
UO states, the remaining 10 having been delegated authority
for state enforcement.  The provisions of the act and the
compliance assumptions for this report are enumerated below.

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1.  Industrial Sources.

   a. Industries discharging pollutants into the Nation's
      waters in 1972 will adopt the best practicable
      pollution control technology (BPT)  by January 1,
      1978, and the best available technology (BAT) by
      January 1, 198ft.   These dates have been pushed back
      six months from those specified in the act to allow
      the analysis for this report to be done on a
      calendar year basis.

   b. Industries for which BPT and BAT are not defined in
      EPA guidelines are assumed to adopt control
      technologies similar to those of related industries
      covered by the guidelines.  Specific control
      technology assumptions for water polluting
      industries investigated by this report are provided
      in Section Three.

   c. Industries discharging their wastewater into
      municipal treatment plants must (and it is assumed
      they do) pretreat their effluents so that industrial
      pollutants do not interfere with plant operation and
      do not pass through the treatment process without
      adequate treatment.  Pretreatment technology must be
      operating by January 1, 1978.  Pretreatment is
      assumed to be unnecessary for those industries for
      which pretreatment guidelines have not been
      prepared.

   d. All new sources of water pollution (usually plants
      constructed since 197U) are assumed to comply with
      EPA NSPS guidelines.

2.  Municipal Sources.

   Compliance with the Federal water Pollution control Act
   by all publicly owned sewage treatment plants in
   existence on July 1, 1977, would require them to
   achieve a secondary treatment level for all effluents.
   Because of the difficulty facing the municipalities in
   raising capital and limitations in Federal construction
   grants, treatment plants cannot be built at a fast
   enough rate to assure compliance with the act.
   Instead, it is assumed in this report that new plants
   will only be built as rapidly as permitted by Federal
                         1-10

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      appropriations and state and local  matching funds,
      which are proposed as shown in Table 4.

      Section Three discusses in depth the relationship
      between these appropriated funds and the expenditures
      which would be necessary to comply  with  the act.  It
      also considers the possibility of a $7 billion
      continuing appropriation after current appropriations
      expire.

      These economic, energy,  and compliance assumptions  and
      other less quantifiable policy variables are further
      discussed in  Section  Four.


                           Table 4.
          Direct Capital  Outlays for construction  of
            Publicly Owned  Sewage Treatment Plants
                  (Federal, State, & Local)
                (In Millions of  1973 Dollars)

                    Fiscal Year         Calendar Year

1975                   3,893                4,383
1976                   t»,873                5,601
Transition*             1,473                N/A
1977                   6,767                6,920
1978                   7,460                6,958
1979                   5,453                4,780
1980                   2,760                2,515
1981                   1,780                1,512
1982                     707                  680
1983                     600                  600
1984                     600                  600
1985                     600                  450

1  This "transition period"  represents the months of
  July through September 1976; all subsequent  Fiscal
  Years will run from October 1 through September 30
  of the following year.
                           1-11

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  3. Elimination of Discharge.

     Although Elimination Of Discharge (EOD)  is specified as
     the goal of the Water Pollution Control Act, it is not
     currently required by regulations except for those
     industries where BAT is the same as EOD.  Consequently,
     EOD is not assumed for the pollution control cost
     estimates appearing in this report.
                  POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS:
            DEFINITIONS AND CALCULATION METHODS
The various costs presented in this report are described
below, and the general approach used to estimate costs in
each of three major categories is discussed.  The three
categories are direct costs, government program
expenditures, and indirect costs.
Direct Costs

The expenditures associated with acquiring, owning, and
operating the buildings and equipment needed to control
pollution are direct costs.  These costs are directly
incurred by industries and municipalities to reduce
pollutant levels; they include investment costs, operation
and maintenance costs, and the costs incurred to borrow the
necessary capital funds.
INVESTMENT COSTS

These costs include all expenditures for pollution control
equipment and associated modifications or additions to
buildings.  They are the actual cash outlays used to
purchase and install the equipment and to construct the
buildings or building changes.  In the case of municipal
treatment plants, the cost of building the whole plant is an
investment cost for pollution control.  These costs do not
include those charges made by a lending institution for
borrowing the money, nor do they take into account the
income tax writeoff benefits which accrue to an industry due
to depreciation.
                           1-12

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OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE
(OSM) COSTS

The annual costs of operating and maintaining the pollution
control equipment and plant include expenditures for:

  1. Materials used by the equipment (e.g., chemicals)

  2. Labor for maintenance and repairs

  3. Energy

  4. Materials for repairs

  5. Overhead

  6. Monitoring  (labor)

  7. Byproduct credits.


TOTAL ANNUAL COSTS

Total annual costs are those costs incurred each year by
industry or government (municipalities) in owning and
operating pollution control equipment and plants.  They are
the sum of the O6M costs for the year and the annualized
capital costs for the year.  Note that annualized capital
costs are not the same as the investment costs discussed
above.  Annualized capital costs are derived by amortizing
the initial investment over the life of the facility, and
can be thought of as the annual amount needed to repay the
loan with interest over a specific time period.


COSTING METHODOLOGY

The direct costs of air and water pollution control are
reported separately for each source and source category.
For air pollution, the major source categories are:
(1)  stationary sources, comprising industries, power
utilities, and space heating; and (2) mobile sources,
namely, automobiles, trucks, .and aircraft.  The major source
categories for water pollution are:  (1) point sources, which
include municipalities, industries, power utilities, and
runoff from urban areas; and (2) nonpoint sources, which
include runoff from mining and drilling operations, and
                           1-13

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agricultual crop production activities.  Because urban
runoff and nonpoint-source pollution control is a far more
complex problem and an established regulatory procedure such
as effluent permits is not yet developed, control costs for
these sources could not be reliably estimated, and hence,
are not reported in this 'document.

The details of calculating costs differ among the major
source categories.  In general, the procedure for each
source is:

  1. Examine the regulations to determine the emission or
     effluent standards to be met.

  2. Select from the alternative technologies those
     pollution control methods that are likely to be
     employed.

  3. Estimate the cost of using these methods for
     representative units (plants, vehicles, etc.).

  H, Multiply these unit estimates by the total number of
     such sources in the nation that are anticipated to
     require control in the appropriate year.  Thus, for
     automobile emission controls, the cost of an individual
     control system is multiplied by the total number of
     automobiles estimated to be sold in the appropriate
     year with that system.

This procedure, which is more complicated for industrial
sources, is outlined below and is discussed more thoroughly
in Section Pour of this report:

  1. Total industry production capacity is inventoried or
     estimated.

  2. Unique production processes within the industry which
     emit differing levels of pollutants and/or require
     different control techniques are identified.

  3. For each production process, the applicable abatement
     control technologies are identified and the percentage
     of plants using each technology is specified.

  1. For each control technology associated with a given
     production process, the percentages of plants covered

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     by different state implementation plans are estimated
     (for air control cost calculations only).

  5. Usually from one to three typical plant sizes for each
     given implementation plan, control technology, and
     production process combination within the industry are
     defined.  (This combination is hereafter referred to as
     an industry segment.)

  6. The capacity for the industry segment is allocated
     among the plant sizes, and capital and O8M costs are
     developed for a typical plant of each size in the
     segment, depending on the standard it must meet.  (This
     depends in part on whether it is a new or existing
     plant.)

  7. The costs are applied to all plants of the same size
     within the segment; then costs for the different size
     classes are summed to obtain total capital and O5M
     costs for the segment.  This is done for each segment
     of each production process within the industry.
     Control costs for the industry are obtained by
     totalling all the capital and OSM costs computed for
     the industry's segments.

The costs associated with building and operating municipal
wastewater treatment plants for this report are directly
related to the Federal appropriations and state matching
funds available to build new plants.  These costs have,
however, been reported in six "Needs" categories.  These
categories relate to the Municipal Needs Survey  (Final
Report to the congress, "Cost Estimates for Construction of
Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities", revised May
6, 1975) which was conducted in 1971 by EPA to determine the
physical facilities needed by municipalities to adequately
handle their sewage treatment problems; the categories are:
  •  Category I

  •  Category II


  •  Category IIIA

              IIIB
Secondary treatment required.

More stringent treatment required
by water quality.

Correction of sewer
infiItration/inflow.
Major sewer rehabilitation.
                           1-15

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  •  Category IVA
              IVB

  •  Category V
  •  Category VI
   Collector sewers.
   Interceptor sewers.

   Correction of combined sewer
   overflows.

-  Treatment and/or control of
   stormwaters.
Government Program Expenditure

Program costs which are incurred by governmental agencies in
carrying out pollution control legislation include
expenditures for planning, administration, enforcement, and
research grants.  These costs are incurred at all three
levels of government: Federal, state, and local.  The costs
of constructing, operating, and maintaining control
equipment owned by these governments are direct costs, and,
as such, are included in the air and water program costs
discussions in sections Two and Three, respectively.
AIR PROGRAM COSTS  '

Government program costs for air pollution control have been
estimated separately for Federal and non-Federal programs.

Federal programs involve two types of funds: grant funds,
which are passed on to state and local governments; and in-
house funds, which are expended by a Federal agency or by
its contractors.  Estimates of projected grant expenditures
are obtained from the relevant agencies, primarily from EPA,
which accounts for the vast majority of grant funds, and
from the Appalachian Regional Commission and the Department
of Transportation, which account for most of the remainder.
Estimates of projected in-house expenditures are based upon
Fiscal Year 1976 outlays.

The basic procedure used for estimating program expenditures
by state and local governments makes use of available data
for 15 representative states.  The estimated ratios of
expenditures for various functional areas, such as
enforcement and engineering, are first derived for these
states and are then applied to all other states based on the
similarity of industrialization, geography, population, and
general air pollution control policies.
                           1-16

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In general, sources of data for projecting government
program costs for air pollution abatement beyond 1979 were
not available.  Instead, extrapolations were made from
baseline data on the basis of several reports that provided
forecasts of future government expenditures for specific
program components.
WATER PROGRAM COSTS

The major assumptions underlying the 10-year water program
projections are:                                    >

  1. Future year estimates are a continuation of
     the/estimated Fiscal Year 1978 program level.

  2. No'new major legislative amendments will be made to the
     Federal Water'Pollution Control Act.

As with the air program expenditures. Federal water program
expenditures are divided into two general categories:
Assistance Programs, which administer Federal grants; and
Regulatory Programs, which include all other Federal
administration and enforcement expenditures.

The 10-year state program.expenditure projections are
derived from the requirements under the 1972 Amendments of
the states to issue permits, review construction grants, and
monitor compliance.  Permit costs are developed for each
major category of activity.  State agencies perform a
variety of additional activities over and above those needed
to comply with Federal requirements; the expenditures for
these activities are not included here.  In addition, there
is no provision for program expenditures for nonpoint-source
control activities.
Indirect costs

Indirect costs are those experienced by government,
business, or consumers as a result of having to bear the
direct costs of pollution control.  The added industrial
costs for pollution control must either be passed on to the
consumer in the form of increased prices or be absorbed by
industry in reduced profits.  Where investment requirements
are high and profits are already low, some marginal plants
might find it impossible to continue operation in the face
                           1-17

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of pollution control requirements.  The resulting plant
closures may thus result in local unemployment problems.

This report examines some of the indirect macroeconomic
effects of pollution control at the national level.  Thus,
Section Four presents an analysis of the impact of control
costs on aggregate production, investment, employment and
other national accounts.

EPA's Office of Planning and Evaluation is currently engaged
in a series of detailed economic impact analyses for six
major industries: Steel, Electric Utilities, Nonferrous
Metals, Petroleum Refining, Chemicals, and Pulp-and-Paper.
These studies cover the effects of current and proposed
emission and effluent standards on prices, profits,
production, productivity, plant closures, and employment for
each industry, at both national and regional levels.
                  COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT
The primary reason for assessing the costs, benefits, and
impacts of air and water pollution control resulting from
Federal legislation and regulations in the same report is to
make possible analysis of total impacts on the economy,
including changes in the interrelationships among the
various .elements and sectors of the economy.  Another
consequence of the combined report is the capability of
estimating the total pollution control costs for a single
industry and their likely impact on that industry.  For this
report, a comprehensive, impact estimation and analysis
system has been used to examine the comprehensive impacts of
pollution control, at both national and industry levels.
This system, the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS), is summarized in Section Four.

Alternative scenarios are run with SEAS to study the
relative consequences of meeting Federally legislated
controls under alternative assumptions about the future.  A
comparative analysis procedure, which builds upon the
Reference Case forecasts described previously, is then used
to assess the results.  Scenario assumptions, scenario run
results, and comparisons among scenarios are presented in
Section Four.
                           1-18

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As noted earlier, pollution control expenditures are not
independent of the state of the economy.  Similarly, the
impact of these expenditures on the economy, the
environment, and energy consumption depend on the initial
assumptions made about the future in each of these areas.
Hence, the objective in this report is not to predict
exactly what the impacts of pollution control will be over
the next 10 years, but rather to conditionally forecast
their relative magnitude and interrelationships.  The
analysis focuses on how impacts vary as basic assumptions
about future economic activity and energy policy are
differentially changed.

The comparative analysis scheme used to assess the economic
and environmental impacts of pollution control in this
report takes into account that various experts may hold
differing views about future U.S. economic growth, economic
composition, and energy consumption.  By exploring the
impacts of a range of reasonable assumptions about the
future, one is able, by this approach, to determine how
sensitive the economy, the environment, and energy budgets
are to alternative actions.
                    ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
Assumptions for several alternative futures or scenarios are
defined in Section Four of this report.  These scenarios
provide the basis for the comprehensive assessment of
pollution control impacts on the economy and the environment
also presented in Section Four.  Although one forecast has
been termed the Reference Case, it should not necessarily be
interpreted as a prediction of the most realistic future.
Rather, it is the .benchmark or reference against which the
comparative analysis was conducted.  Assumptions for the
Reference Case are essentially those enumerated earlier in
this Introduction.  They describe a high productivity/high
growth-oriented economy where full employment is reached in
the early 1980's.

Other alternative scenarios considered in Section Four are
briefly described below.
                           1-19

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  1. The Low Productivity Scenarios.  These scenarios are
based on time series projections of labor productivity from
1952 to 1971 made by the developers of the INFORUM input-
output model of the economy used in SEAS.  They reflect a
slowing down of productivity because of shifts toward
service industries in the pattern of final demand, and
because of a slowing down of the productivity increase rates
in other industries.  GNP estimates which correspond to
these assumptions are shown in Table 5 compared with those
for the Reference Case.
                          Table 5.
      Comparison of GNP Estimates for Low Productivity
                and Reference Case Scenarios
                (In Trillions of 1975 Dollars)
        1975
        1977
        1980
        1983
        1985
Low Productivity
      GNP

      1.53
      1.65
      1.84
      1.99
      2.08
Reference Case
      GNP

      1.47
      1.69
      1.99
      2.23
      2.40
  2. The Energy Conservation Scenarios.  These scenarios
comprise a variation of the Reference Case in which energy
consumption is reduced through selected conservation
measures.  It is based on the Federal Energy
Administration's "Business-as-Usual with Conservation"
scenario where the import price of oil is $11 per barrel.
.(See Appendix A1, page ^46 of the November 1974 Project
Independence Report.) The energy usage composition projected
by Project Independence is not exactly matched because of
differences in energy demand resulting from the
redistribution of monetary savings to consumers.

Two scenarios are run and analyzed for each set of economic
and energy-related assumptions.  The first scenario in each
case is used to develop a set of forecasts on the economy,
industry output, environmental residuals, and energy budgets
given no increase in pollution control beyond that present
in 1971.  The same parameters are then forecast in a second
scenario, with pollution controls, costs, and equipment
                            1-20

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punchases superimposed on the original economic assumptions
as necessary to comply with Federal legislation.  This
procedure results in six major scenarios:
                          without                 With
                       Abatement costs       Abatement costs

Reference Case         Scenario 1            Scenario 2
Low Productivity       Scenario 3            Scenario U
Energy Conservation    Scenario 5            scenario 6
The scenarios are then paired for a comparative analysis of
relative impacts and tradeoffs in the following manner:
(1,2)  (1,3)  (1,5) (2,«0 (2,6) (3,U) (5,6).  A subset of
Scenario 2, which assumes a continuing appropriation of $7
billion a year for municipal sewage treatment facilities, is
also compared with Scenarios 1 and 2.   In addition to these
analyses, which are presented in Section Four, Section One
includes a study of the cost savings resulting from process
change as compared with Scenario 2 control costs.
                           1-21

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Chapter 2
The Benefits of
Pollution Control Programs
Pollution control legislation has traditionally favored
rigid standards, either to control the discharge of
pollutants into air and water or to maintain ambient quality
levels.  While it was not possible to base such legislation
on an analytical estimation of the full benefits that would
result, its enactment reflected the judgement that the
overall benefits to society were great enough to justify the
necessary costs.  Federal legislation also recognized^the
need for more elaborate and more accurate assessment of the
costs and benefits of such programs, both for their
implementation and for future consideration of additional
legislation.

The purposes of such an assessment transcend the emphasis
often given to the techniques for quantifying benefits and
their numerical results, important though they may be.  The
purpose of cost-benefit analysis is to provide the type of
information on the value of public investments that the
market system provides on the value of private investments.
However, public investments usually have many objectives in
addition to those easily measured in dollars and cents.
Still, the process of logical and systematic scrutiny that
is inherent in the accepted methods of cost-benefit analysis
can contribute greatly to society's ability to improve its
well-being by allocating more efficiently its limited
resources.

Thus, a major purpose of this discussion of the national
benefits of air and water pollution control is the
achievement of a more precise understanding of the nature,
sources, and approximate magnitude of such benefits.  Such
an understanding, when shared by legislators, program
managers, and the public, may well be of greater value than
the numerical results themselves.
                           1-22

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                   DEFINITION OF BENEFITS
Benefits of controlling air and water pollution derive from
the reduction of damages caused by air and water pollution.
The measurement of benefits is performed in terms of the
damages that would otherwise be incurred.  A basic concept
in benefit evaluation is willingness to pay, which can be
defined as the highest price that individuals would be
willing to pay to obtain the improvement in air or water
quality resulting from a given pollution control program.
Benefits are evaluated whenever possible in monetary terms
because it provides a common measure of all the types of
benefits and costs.  The corresponding economic damages
result in out-of-pocket losses caused by increasing the
costs of using air and water, by decreasing the level of use
of the resource, and by increasing costs of avoiding or
repairing the effects of pollution.

Many types of benefits are not amenable to quantification in
monetary terms because of their nature and the state of the
art of available measurement methods.  This is the case with
"psychic" damages, so labeled because they relate to the
pleasure or displeasure associated with the use of the air
and water in our environment.  Psychic damages include
decrease or loss of pleasure from the use of air or water
that has become polluted, and the increased experience of
displeasure, pain, and anxiety, as well as the so-called
option, preservation, and vicarious values experienced by
non-users.

Option values arise because people are willing to pay to
ensure the availability of clean air and water, even if they
are uncertain when or how they would actually use it.
Preservation values arise in a similar fashion, when people
are willing to pay for the preservation of a resource, even
when they are certain that they will never use it directly.
Both preservation and option values are frequently
associated with a unique environmental resource, for which
no substitute exists.  Preservation value can also be
associated with risk aversion, in which a value is placed on
the reduction in the probability of the loss of an
environmental resource through extinction of a species or
collapse of an ecological system.

Finally, the term vicarious satisfaction has been used to
describe the motivation of people who are willing to pay to
                           1-23

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provide benefits for their fellow citizens rather than for
themselves, and bequest value describes the similar benefit
derived by individuals preserving an environmental resource
for future generations.  Although all these psychic values
and the corresponding damages caused by pollution are
currently not easily measured, they apparently account for a
significant portion of the total value of pollution control
to society.

In general, estimation of benefits resulting from
alternative pollution control programs calls for four steps:

  *  Estimate the amounts of pollutants produced by
     projected economic activity.

  •  Estimate the remaining discharge of pollutants to the
     environment after imposition of specified control
     measures.

  •  Estimate the ambient air or water quality that results
     from the diffusion and assimilation of pollutants by
     the environment.

  •  Estimate the nature and magnitude of resultant reduced
     damages and the corresponding benefits.

The first two steps involve the projection of a suitable
economic scenario and evaluation of the cost-effectiveness
of various administrative and technological pollution
controls.  The third step requires the use of complex models
of the diffusion and assimilation of specific pollutants.
The last step relies on the development and interpretation
of dose-effect factors or damage functions, which are
discussed in the next section.

Finally to the extent that they were developed for specific
cases, estimates must eventually be .aggregated over the
pollutant/effect combinations, geographic regions, and time
periods of interest.
                           1-2U

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                   PHYSICAL AND ECONOMIC
                      DAMAGE FUNCTIONS
A damage function is the quantitative expression of a
relationship between exposure to specific pollutants and the
type and extent of the associated effect on a target
population.  Exposure is typically measured in terms of
ambient concentration levels and their duration, and it may
be expressed as "dosage" or "dose".  The former is the
integral of the function defining the relationship between
time and ambient level to which the subject has been
exposed.  Dose, on the other hand, represents that portion
of the dosage that has been instrumental in producing the
observed effect (e.g., the amount of pollutants actually
inhaled in the case of health effects of air pollution).

The effect can become manifest in a number of ways and can
be expressed in either physical and biological or economic
terms.  If the effect is physical or biological, the
resultant relationship is known as a physical or biological
damage function, or a dose-effect function.  On the other
hand, an economic damage function is expressed in monetary
terms.  Economic damage functions can be developed by
assigning dollar values to the effects of a physical or
biological damage function, or by direct correlation of
economic damages with ambient pollutant levels.  A
representative economic damage function, showing the
benefits corresponding to a given improvement in
environmental quality, is presented in Figure 1.
                           1-25

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                        Figure 1.
                     Damage Function
to
H
co
o
u
tu
                                                   DAMAGE FUNCTION
                             r*—IMPROVEMENT-
  THRESHOLD
 WITH
CONTROL
PROGRAM
WITHOUT

CONTROL

PROGRAM
CONCENTRATION OF

POLLUTANT IN THE

AMBIENT ENVIRONMEN1
                          1-26

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The S-shaped damage function is rather characteristic of the
relationships between pollutant exposure and resultant
effect.  The lower portion of the curve suggests that, up to
certain pollutant ambient values, known as threshold levels,
there are no measurable damages, while the upper portion
indicates that there is a saturation level (e.g., death of
the target population), beyond which increased pollutant
levels do not produce additional damages.  Between these
segments is a range where damages are roughly proportional
to the concentration of pollutants.

In reporting a damage function, one must specify the
pollutant, the dose rate, the effect, and the target
population, or the population at risk.  Dose rate, or the
rate at which ambient concentration varies with time, has a
major influence on the nature and severity of the resultant
effect.  Long-term exposure to relatively low concentrations
of air pollutants may result in manifestations of chronic
disease, characterized by extended duration of development,
delayed detection, and long prevalence.  On the other hand,
short-term exposure to high concentration levels may produce
acute symptoms characterized by quick response and ready
detection.  Characterization of the population at risk is
considered in more detail in subsequent paragraphs of this
discussion.

The two principal techniques for analyzing the relationship
between exposure and effect indices necessary to construct a
damage function are known as multivariate regression and
nonparametric or distribution-free estimation.  Multivariate
regression is by far the favored technique because it
provides a rapid indication of the degree of association
between a large number of independent and dependent
variables and is readily programmable for computer
operation.  However, its validity is heavily contingent on a
fairly precise a priori definition of the relationship
between each independent and dependent variable, and on
precise measurement of the independent variables.  Thus,
this technique is especially vulnerable to the poor
precision in measurement and reporting of air pollution
levels for a given segment of population.  Nonparametric
estimating is free of these assumptions, but it calls for
laborious data reduction for each of the many pairs of
independent and dependent variables, and expert judgement to
guide each step of the process.  Moreover, this technique
requires sufficient data for each independent variable to
                           1-27

-------
isolate and remove the influence of likely interfering
factors.

The data required to construct damage functions can be
obtained by the following approaches:

     Epidemiclogical or field studies and observations
     Toxicological or laboratory investigations
     Market studies
     Delphi method
     Public opinion surveys
     Legislative decisions
     Litigation surveys.

The first two approaches are attuned to physical damage
functions, while the remaining ones are directed toward
derivation of economic relationships.

The first approach involves the comparative examination of
the effects of pollutants on large segments of population
exposed to different levels of pollution in order to deduce
the nature and magnitude of the likely effect.  Field
studies and observations represent the same approach to
assessment of effects on animals, vegetation, and materials,
and they are characterized by similar analytical techniques
and concerns.  Toxicological studies involve deliberate
administration of controlled doses of pollutants to animal
subjects, followed by observation of the resulting effects.
Laboratory studies represent essentially the same approach
for determining effects of pollutants on plants and
materials.

Two considerations need to be noted about epidemiological
and field studies.  First, it is very important to remove or
control the influence of factors other than pollution that
may be responsible for the different effects observed.  In
the case of health effects, for example, these include
physiological, genetic, and other characteristics of the
population under observation, such as age, sex, race, family
medical history, occupational exposure, medical care, state
of health, and nutrition.  When these characteristics cannot
be factored out, it is frequently assumed that their
distribution is sufficiently uniform in the populations
under observation that the basic results are not affected
significantly.  Secondly, epidemiological and field studies
and observations can only indicate an association between
exposure to pollution and the observed effect, though the
                           1-28

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impact of an association can be strengthened considerably
through evidence of consistency and specificity of the
relationship.  A causal relationship can be demonstrated, or
made plausible by toxicological and laboratory studies, or
by the construction of a plausible connective mechanism.

Market studies, such as those investigating differences in
property value or income, employ prices or wages as an
indication of the values affected by pollution, and their
usefulness has been demonstrated in a number of cases.  This
approach is heavily dependent on the investigator's ability
to identify and isolate the many other factors that affect
the value of property,-or other indicators used.  In the
Delphi method, the knowledge of a diverse group of experts
is pooled for the task of quantifying variables that are
either intangible or shrouded in uncertainty.  This method
provides an efficient way to obtain subjective, but
informed, judgements.  Thus, in a recent project, the
California Air Resources Board under EPA sponsorship
constructed a number of dose-response functions based on
expert opinions submitted by a group of clinicians and other
health effects researchers.

Surveys of public opinion focus on estimating indivudal
preferences and demands.  Such surveys have been
particularly helpful in understanding how attitudes about
pollution are formed and affected by changes in
environmental quality.  They can also provide an indication
of what people may be willing to pay for enhancement of
environmental quality, or perhaps, what their preference
might be for the reduced risk of experiencing certain
adverse effects.  Surveys of legislative decisions or
litigation awards can also provide some insight into the
perceived value of pollution abatement.
                     POPULATION AT RISK
In the past, it was customary to assess the severity of air
pollution in terms of point-source emissions, and later, in
terms of ambient concentrations.  These indicators reflected
the progression in the state of the art from visual
assessment of smoke plumes to increasing availability of air
quality monitoring stations and associated data processing
capabilities.  However, the real significance of air
                           1-29

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pollution lies in its physical, economic, and social impact
on the affected population.

Beyond this, characterization of the population at risk in
terms of its potential susceptibility to various levels of
air pollution can provide useful indications for allocation
of resources and setting of priorities in air pollution
abatement.  For example, a higher clean-up priority could be
assigned to an area containing a large population of older
people or those exposed to high occupational pollution than
to another area with a smaller population of relatively
healthy people not otherwise exposed to harmful pollutants.
This procedure can be refined further through control of
specific pollutants.

Since the importance of characterizing the population at
risk to various levels of air pollutants became recognized,
there have been several attempts to obtain such a
characterization through crude regional estimates.  The
first comprehensive, national assessment was only recently
completed.  The major assumptions and findings of this study
are summarized here.

The specific objective of the population at risk study was
to calculate the number of people in selected demographic
and socioeconomic classes who are exposed to various levels
of several air pollutants.  This was accomplished in six
steps:

     Select air quality indices
     Select population indices
     Select air quality and population coverage units
     Obtain and process air quality data
     Obtain and process census data
     Calculate population at risk.

The pollutants selected were total suspended particulates,
sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and
photochemical oxidants.  The air quality indices were
expressed in terms of the relationships of pollutant ambient
levels to their corresponding short-and long-term primary
standards.  They were divided into four classes: 0-75
percent, 75-100 percent, 100-125 percent, and above 125
percent of the corresponding primary standard.  In the case
of short-term standards, the 90th and 99th percentiles of
the observed values were found to be more useful indicators
than the maximum values.
                           1-30

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Human susceptibility and resultant response to toxicological
and physical stress produced by air pollutants is determined
somewhat by certain intrinsic traits, such as age, race,
sex, and general health, as well as by such extrinsic
characteristics as employment, income, educational level,
and general environmental conditions.  The population
classes selected for the study are listed below:


     •  Age:                          •  Employment:

        - Under 19 years                 - Manufacturing
        - 20-64 years                    - Other
        - 65 years and over

     •  Race:                         •  Family income:

        - White                          - Under $5,000
        - Negro                          - $5,000-$2»,999
        - Other                          - $25,000 and
                                            over
Although population information from the U.S. Bureau of the
Census is available for the entire country, air quality
data, stored in EPA's National Aerometric Data Bank, are
not.  The gaps occur in the form of specific pollutants, the
short-term or long-term values, or missing stations.
Consequently, this study dealt with 241 standard
metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs), which cover 68.6
percent of the population and 11.0 percent of the land area
of the United States.  Pollutant ambient levels in these
areas were derived by plotting isopleths (equal
concentration contours) between air quality monitoring
stations and by superimposing this display over maps of the
SMSAs.  The year of coverage for air quality data was 1973,
though the population information was based on the 1970 U.S.
census.

Finally, the population at risk was computed within each
pollutant and population class, and aggregated to state,
regional, and national levels.  The results are displayed in
tables of population versus air quality classes for
different combinations of pollutants and geographic
locations.  The national aggregations for all five
pollutants are presented in Tables 1 through 5.
                           1-31

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The study concluded that the exposure of the U.S. population
surveyed to short-term particulate, short and long-term
sulfur dioxide, and short-term carbon monoxide levels was
within the respective permissible primary air quality
standards.  On the other hand, significant portions of the
population surveyed were exposed to excessive long-term
particulate (31 percent), long-term nitrogen dioxide  (2*
percent), and short-term oxidant (58 percent) levels.
                            1-32

-------
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                  PROBLEMS OF MEASUREMENT
Assessment of benefits of pollution control is beset by a
number of major difficulties that have a profound effect on
the accuracy and reliability of the benefit estimates.  Some
of these difficulties can be largely overcome with the aid
of available ancillary information, while others require the
expenditure of much additional effort.  Still others must be
dealt with by indirect estimation and other imprecise
techniques.  The more important problem areas may be listed
as follows:

  •  Collection of reliable ambient quality data
  •  Selection of exposure indices and identification of
     synergistic effects
     Selection of representative populations
     Measurement of effects
     Establishment of causal relationships
     Presentation of non-quantifiable information
     Regional, demographic, and temporal extrapolation
     Consistent classification of damages
     Double-counting and omission of damages
     Assessment of damage reductions.

Collection of sufficient air and water ambient quality data
requires a very large number of measuring stations and a
commitment to measurement and data handling well in excess
of the present level, because the problem concerns numerous
point and nonpoint sources of pollutants discharging at
irregular intervals into air and water,  consequently, the
available data seldom reflect hourly, or even diurnal
variations that may be important.

Collection of useful data on damages and their proper
attribution to exposure to specific levels of various
pollutants suffers from several handicaps.  One is the
problem of selecting the proper exposure index for each
pollutant in terms of level, duration, and presence of other
pollutants, or influence of meteorological and hydrological
factors.  Another is the need to select sample populations
that are representative of the population at large in terms
of susceptibility to detectable levels of damage.  In the
case of health effects, this involves segregation based on
demographic and socioeconomic makeup of the population at
risk.
                            1-38

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A third difficulty lies in measuring the resultant effects.
This is especially problematic in the case of psychic
damages, such as those associated with health, recreation,
aesthetics, option, and preservation values.  Such damages
are not adequately assigned costs by the market system
because they are aspects of environmental use that are not
owned privately or exchanged.  Thus, estimation of the
corresponding benefits requires development of proxy or
surrogate measures.

The fourth and most formidable problem involves identifying
and documenting a causal relationship between exposure to a
given dose and production of a specific effect and deriving
the corresponding damage function.  The existing literature
contains estimates for only a few discrete points on the
many damage functions of interest.  In order to produce
national benefit estimates, it is frequently necessary to
make major assumptions about the shape of the damage curve
on the basis of these few points.

Most studies leading to the evaluation of damages resulting
from exposure to various pollutants address a specific
geographic area, population, and time frame.  Extension to
the national level and a more recent time frame requires
extrapolations of ambient levels, population at risk,
personal income, and increases in costs of resultant damages
due to inflation.  The classification of damages, for which
the data are collected, is often dictated by availability of
sources and analytical expediency, rather than a uniform and
self-consistent framework.  Consequently, different studies
evaluate damages that are not necessarily additive or even
comparable, and any effort to reconcile or aggregate the
results of such studies must apply careful interpretive
techniques to prevent gross overlaps or omissions of damage
estimates.  Moreover, in aggregating such fractional
results, it is not currently possible to reflect the
potential impacts of changes in one pollutant or one region
on the damages caused by other pollutants or in other
regions, nor has it been possible to reflect the impact of
the general adjustments the economy would make to pollution
control programs and the resulting reduction in damages.

Finally, with effective abatement, the estimate of benefits
associated with a given level of pollution control can be
expressed in terms of the corresponding reduction of
damages.  This step, in turn, requires the definition of a
quantitative relationship between reduced emissions and
                           1-39

-------
resultant ambient levels, as well as between these improved
ambient levels and reduced damages.  Development of
pollutant transport and dispersion models describing the
first set of relationships has been only partly successful
because of the many ill-defined variables involved.  Thus,
it is commonly assumed that the fractional decrease in
ambient levels is essentially proportional to the fractional
reduction of emissions.  The second set of relationships is
defined by the damage functions discussed earlier.  The unit
damages obtained from a damage curve are converted to total
damages through multiplication by the number of units at
risk and the cost-per-unit damage, as appropriate.

Thus, assessment of benefits associated with a given level
of pollution control is still most assuredly an art, which
permits divergent interpretation of available data that may
lead to widely differing results.  For this reason, although
certain studies on air and water pollution damages are cited
in Sections Two and Three, national aggregate damage
estimates are not presented in this report.
                           1-UO

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Chapter 3
Pollution Control Cost Reduction
Through Process Change
                        INTRODUCTION
Opportunities for air and water abatement cost reduction
through process change were identified for 40 industries.
Five industries were examined in detail: Copper, Aluminum,
Pulp and Paper, Petroleum, and Inorganic Chemicals.  Using
Reference Case abatement costs developed in Sections Two and
Three as a baseline, the extent of reduction achieveable
through specific process change candidates in each industry
was determined.  The relative savings in accumulated capital
expenditures through 1985 in the five industries are: 14.5
percent, 9.6 percent, 10,1 percent, 12.0 percent, and 2.5
percent.  The analogous savings in annualized costs for 1985
are: 35.0 percent, 11.0 percent, 28.5 percent, 24.0 percent,
and 25.0 percent.  When these savings are assessed in terms
of their applicability to opportunities in the other 35
industries, the total capital and annualized cost reductions
for all 40 industries relative to Reference Case abatement
costs are estimated to be (in percentage reductions): -1.2
percent and -9.9 percent.
Impact of Process Change Upon
the Cost of a Clean Environment

Pollution control legislation and associated effluent
guidelines require that industry attain specific levels of
pollutant control.  The mechanism for achieving these levels
is left to the discretion of each industry.  The simple
approach is to add treatment steps to the process at the
points of waste emission, which are termed end-of-pipe
control.  The costs associated with these end-of-pipe (EOF)
steps furnish an economic motive for waste-reduction process
changes.  If a net abatement cost reduction can be achieved
through process change relative to that process or a
competing process employing end-of-pipe treatment, an
incentive for process change exists.  This concept is
evidenced in the generic types of process change in the more
advanced standards (BAT, BPT, NSPS).  For example, process
changes designed to reduce water requirements, permit
greater water reuse,  and minimize leaks and spills are


                           1-41

-------
included in the compliance strategies recommended in the EPA
effluent guideline development documents; considerable
evidence exists to indicate such percential.  Exemplary
plants in many industries do operate at much higher
efficiencies than the corresponding typical plants, and
plant modernizations havje beenable to substantially improve
abatement efficiency at ^^rea^oTSBTe cost.  In this
discussion, emphasis is placed~upon assessing the cost
reductions achievable through process changes other than
those included in the Reference Case of Section Four.

A number of important distinctions must be made.  There are
important differences between what can be achieved in a new
plant as compared with the upgrading of an existing
facility.  In some instances, it is less costly to abandon
an existing facility and build a new one than it is to
convert the older facility.  In such a case, nearly all
capital associated with the abandoned plant must be
forfeited.  When conversion of the existing facility is
reasonable, the capability to do so may be unevenly spread
across the industry.  The larger firms have both greater
technological capability and financial reserves than the
smaller firms.  Thus, even a technologically-feasible
retrofit process change may have considerable economic
impact.

Such economic considerations are well known.  They are
restated here to emphasize their importance in assessing
process change as a method of reducing end-of-pipe treatment
requirements.  A final general comment of this type pertains
to tax considerations.  If a tax benefit is granted EOP-type
investment and not those related to process change, there is
an incentive to pursue the former course.

This discussion identifies the type of savings that may be
achieved through process change.  The estimates made are
intended to be indicative rather than exact; i.e., the
analysis objective is to establish reasonable bounds between
which the impact of process change can be evaluated.  The
reference cases for comparison are the industry costs
established in sections Two and Three of this report.  The
measure of the economic benefit from the process change is
the extent to which the pollution control savings relative
to the Reference Case exceed the costs incurred in the
process change.  The industry-wide savings are derived by
identifying the extent of industry acceptance of the
designated process change.

-------
Effect of Environmental Standards
on the Rate of Process Change

In considering the effect of environmental regulations on
industry's acceptance of process change, it must- "be
remembered that this relationship takes place within the
framework of industry's overall investment decisions.  Most
industries have a tacitly expressed, minimum acceptable rate
of return.  Below this level, investment is not believed to
enhance a company's financial position, and other,
considerations, such as liquidity, may predominate.  Whether
or not sufficiently lucrative opportunities exist often
depends on the investment climate, which in turn may be
heavily influenced by interest rates, current market
behavior, etc.  Even under favorable investment conditions,
corporations have limited capital resources.  Consequently,
they must select among investment options, seeking the
opportunity most likely to bring a high, reliable return on
venture capital.

Comparison of investment opportunities is conducted on the
basis of comparative profitability.  A piece of equipment,
like a furnace, will process a given product throughput over
a specified lifetime.  The value of this production, based
on projected prices, is compared against the capital outlays
required to build and operate the unit; ancillary costs and
benefits must be included in this comparison.  An existing
furnace has an established set of operating specifications:
energy requirements, recovery efficiency, etc.  If the
            process > can reduce energy needs, the operating
savings that result \are included in the profitability
comparison
In addition, an attempt should be made to assess the
"venture risk" involved in the investment; an example is a
shoe manufacturer's investment in a line of ski boots.  The
investor understands that an unseasonally warm winter might
cut his sales prospects in half.  This estimate of risk is
taken into account in determining the desirable rate of
return.  Venture risk similarly applies to the introduction
of new processes, where the firm takes a risk that the
process will not live up to expectations.

In a highly competitive market, the costs associated with
end-of-pipe control may be so high that firms cannot pass
them on as higher prices without losing competitiveness.
These plants must either develop alternative control


                           1-U3

-------
strategies that can be implemented at an acceptable level of
cost, or close their doors.  In these cases, in-plant
controls can truly be said to be environmentally inspired.

However, environmental regulations can also indirectly
affect investment decisions by altering the profitability of
certain options.  Existing facilities will have additional
capital and operating costs associated with end-of-pipe
treatment of its wastes, assuming compliance with
environmental standards.  In-plant changes that reduce
treatment costs will be treated like any other benefit in
profitability calculations.

Abatement costs can affect the process trends that would
have developed in the absence of environmental
considerations in a variety of ways.  The additional 'cost
can tip the scales in favor of a project that was formerly
less profitable.  Alternatively, it can further improve the
profitability of an already preferred investment
opportunity, thereby accelerating its rate of acceptance by
the industry.  It is important to realize that in both these
events the environmental regulations are only one of several
motivating factors; the abatement savings are not usually
sufficient to justify investment unless other advantages are
gained as well.  This fact becomes relevant when allocating
the portion of cost savings attributed to the environmental
regulations.

On the other hand, environmental investments do involve one
special circumstance that vitally increases their
importance.  Traditional decisions on an investment, such as
capacity expansion, offer a firm three choices: expansion
using proven technology, expansion using a challenging
process, or ho expansion.  By law, abatement decisions do
not permit the third path of inaction to be taken; either an
alternative abatement strategy must be found, or the present
plant abated through end-of-pipe methods.  Furthermore,
expenditures on equipment with the sole function of control
yield no direct economic return to the corporations.
Consequently, firms may be receptive to strategies that can
attain abatement objectives while in some way improving the
processing efficiency of the plant.

Before proceeding, two cases should be noted in which
environmental regulations do not affect general process
trends.  The first case is where little difference exists
between the abatement costs for the two processes.  If a
                           1-44

-------
relatively new process is only marginally more profitable
after subtracting venture risk than the established
technology, most companies will retain the proven profit-
maker.  This is important in the present discussion because
the time frame in which alternatives to EOF treatment can be
undertaken is very short.  In the second case, a process
that has to pay much higher abatement costs may remain more
profitable than its competitor.  In this case, the "dirtier"
process will continue to be substituted for the "cleaner"
process.  This process change will have the effect of
increasing total industry abatement costs.


Types of Process Change

A survey was conducted within 29 polluting industries to
identify those process changes that have significant
pollution treatment implications.  Three major categories of
process change were found: material changes, process
modification, and process substitutions.  An additional and
important type of change exists that, while not associated
with a specific process, affects the control costs for each
process.  These are plant-wide changes, such as
housekeeping, coordinated water usage by a set of processes
to achieve a net reduction in water usage, etc.  In the
following discussion, plant-wide changes are addressed in
terms of their effect on individual processes.
MATERIAL CHANGES

Material changes include modifying the nature or quality of
raw materials employed or adjusting the specifications of
the product produced.  For example, use of natural Trona as
a source of sodium carbonate obviates the large quantities
of waste generated by Solvay process synthesis of sodium
carbonate from salt and limestone.  Likewise, use of rutile
rather than ilmenite in the production of titanium dioxide
significantly reduces waste quantities.  Alternatively,
synthetic rutile can be generated by pretreatment of
ilmenite.  Recycled or secondary material inputs are also
important.  For example, increased aluminum recycling
circumvents the waste produced during bauxite processing.
An example of a product specification change is the
incorporation of a portion of process waste sludge in paper
products not requiring high brightness.
                           1-45

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Often, material changes are made on the basis of economic
considerations related to materials availability.  For
example, domestic bauxite is of lower quality than bauxite
imported from Jamaica, Surinam, or Australia; hence, the
majority of bauxite consumed in the United States each year
is imported.  However, if the countries of origin are able
to establish a higher bauxite price, the domestic
alternative will appear more desirable.  Such a change in
material input will affect the nature and increase the
quantity of wastes generated.  Another example relates to
the use of rutile in titanium dioxide production, as already
discussed.  Rutile, possessing a higher titania content, is
predominantly imported from Australia, while large
quantities of ilmenite ore exist in the United States.  An
adjustment could be made in the event rutile became either
hard to obtain or highly priced.  Again, the nature of the
waste stream would change.

Crude oil quality also varies with its point of geographic
origin.  For example. Middle Eastern crudes have a higher
sulfur content than domestic crudes, and the percentage
usage of the former is increasing.  Meanwhile, restrictions
oh the sulfur content of fuel oil for consumer use require
that the refinery, which is now dealing with additional
sulfur in its primary raw materials, reduce the sulfur
content in its final product.  This change in product
specifications directly affects the amount of processing
required, and, hence, the pollution-control related costs.

Environmental considerations are only one of the factors
impinging upon the selection of raw material type.
Nevertheless, the nature of the raw material utilized can
have a direct effect upon the costs of pollution abatement.
PROCESS MODIFICATIONS

Three types of process modification were identified: revised
process operation, byproduct recovery, and process-specific
waste treatment.

  1. Revised Process Operation.  This category includes
     those process modifications made in an effort to
     improve process economics.  The principal attribute is
     that in some way the efficency of the central reaction
     is improved, i.e., greater quantities of the desired
     products and lower quantities of pollution are
                           1-U6

-------
   generated per unit of input material.   This may be
   accomplished by changing the temperature or pressure of
   the reaction, extending or shortening the residence
   time, improving reactant mixing,  introducing a more
   stable catalyst, increasing recycle quantities,
   reducing water use, or invoking real-time computer
   control.   In some cases, optimal process operation when
   pollution control is required will differ from that
   when such control is not required.  Usually, a complex
   linear programming scheme is required to balance the
   many factors involved in identifying the optimal
   performance, and this determination is strongly
   affected by the character of the input materials, as
   previously discussed.

2. Byproduct Recovery.  The recovery of a salable material
   from the process waste stream is an obvious and often
   mentioned method of simultaneously reducing the waste
   load and at least partially compensating for the costs
   involved.  However, the opportunity to profitably sell
   such recovered materials is sometimes elusive.  An
   extreme example is the recovery of sulfur and its
   various compounds as pollution control.  The
   marketplace may be unable to accommodate the quantities
   of sulfur to be made available.  Hence, extraction of
   sulfur from the air and water waste stream could merely
   serve to transform the sulfur into a more readily-
   controlled solid waste.  Attempts are underway to
   expand the market for sulfur compounds by identifying
   new applications, but there may be limits to the amount
   of market expansion possible.

   In many cases, recovered material can be put to
   profitable use.  Frequently, the application is an in-
   plant use of the recovered material to perform a
   function that previously required a purchased input,
   (e.g., heat and fiber reuse in the paper industry),  in
   addition, industrial complexes are beginning to
   cooperate in using each others waste streams when a
   desired attribute is present.

3. Process-Specific Treatment.  This process modification
   is the treatment of process waste prior to merging it
   with the waste streams of other processes for end-of-
   pipe treatment.  In general, the process waste must
   have some specific attribute that necessitates a unique

-------
     treatment step; otherwise, the economies of scale
     associated with end-of-pipe treatment prevail.

Process Substitution, Process substitution is differentiated
from process modification in that a fundamental change is
made to the central reaction step.  For example, going from
the mercury cell to the diaphragm cell in chlorine
production and from the open-hearth to the basic-oxygen
furnace in steel production are process substitutions.  For
comparison, changing the reaction conditions, enlarging the
reactor, or adding ancillary process equipment are process
modi fie ati on s.

Process substitutions are an extremely important process
change category in terms of their effect upon pollution
control requirements.  A recent study of solid waste
generation1 showed that for 17 of the 31 largest producers
of process solid waste among industrial chemicals, a process
substitution was underway or had already taken place.  In
each case, the amount of solid waste generated was reduced.
As process efficiencies are improved, the yield of the main
product goes up and the quantity of waste generated
correspondingly goes down.  In addition, the remaining
wastes tended to be easier to treat.  Usually, wastes
associated with the raw materials can be segregated with
comparative ease.  The ones produced during the principal
reaction, however, are generally closely associated with the
main product, and hence, are more difficult to separate.
                    COSTING METHODOLOGY
The Industry Survey analysis, which appears later in this
discussion, disclosed a number of promising process change
opportunities.  These opportunities were evaluated to
determine the extent to which such process changes can be
expected to reduce pollution control costs relative to the
Reference Case, primarily an end-of-pipe approach.  To do
this, five representative industries were selected that
together illustrate the various modes of process change.
Specific process change candidates, ranging from the
modification of a single processing step to replacement of
an entire process, were examined.  For each challenging and
defending process, total unit costs (process + end-of-pipe)
were calculated.  The capital requirements and annual!zed

-------
costs of the changed operation were compared with costs
developed for the Reference Case discussed in Section Four.
Costing at the Unit Level

A new process may be related to existing operations in one
of three ways:

  1. It can be basically interchangeable with part of the
     existing plant, with potential for both retrofit and
     new plant applications.  (Examples: Continuous and
     batch digesters, oxygen paper processes, flash and
     reverberatory furnaces.)

  2. It can be basically incompatible with in-place
     facilities and represent an alternative for new
     capacity only.  (Examples:  Hydrometallurgy, dry forming
     of paper.)

  3. It can be basically additive in nature, with no unit
     serving a comparable function in the present process
     scheme.   (Examples: Byproduct recovery units, spill
     containment systems.)

Each of these relationships calls for a different type of
comparison of basic process costs.  Table 1 diagrammatically
represents the basis for comparison in each of these
situations.
                           1-19

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                          Table 1.
             Nature of Process Cost Comparisons
                                   Relevant Cost Parameters

                                            vs.
1.  Inter-
    changeable
    Processes

2.  Alternative
    Processes

3.  Additive
    Processes
Retrofit
Application

New Plant
Application
Old
Process

O&M
Capitalf
O&M

Capital,
O&M

None
New
Process

Capital,
O&M

Capital,
O&M

Capital,
O&M

Capital,
O&M
Values for capital, operation and maintenance (O&M) and
annualized costs were obtained from available engineering
cost estimates.  Capital costs represent the installed costs
of process equipment; this figure includes actual component
costs plus expenditures for engineering plans, site
preparation, and construction of necessary auxiliary
facilities.  Startup costs and penalties for plant shut-down
time have not been included, because these values tend to be
very plant specific.  The operation and maintenance category
includes: materials, taxes and insurance, direct and
indirect labor, and maintenance.  Annualized costs are
defined as O&M costs plus depreciation on capital investment
(calculated at 10 percent of the unpaid principal per year
and normalized over the capital lifetime).  All costs are
developed for specific plant configurations, or model
plants.  Where competing units exhibit different economies
of scale, more than one model size was used.

sources of process cost estimates included technical
journals, EPA economic impact studies, and other government
publications, such as Bureau of Mines Information Circulars.
The available materials frequently had to be converted to a
form applicable to cost comparison at the unit level.  In
                           1-50

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some cases, simplifying assumptions were employed.  For
example:

  •  Operation and maintenance figures are frequently
     available only at the plant level.  In these instances,
     allocations between processes were constructed on the
     basis of information contained in the source
     literature.  In the copper industry, for example,
     operating costs were provided for a typical smelter.2
     For some of the operating expense items, such as
     electric power, chemicals, etc., the significant in-
     plant users were delineated; costs could therefore be
     attributed to those specific sources.  For materials
     where detailed information was not available, and for
     general expenditures (labor costs, maintenance), costs
     were distributed according to the fraction of total
     capital investment represented by each unit process.

  •  For some units, estimates of capital and O&M
     requirements are simply not available.  This is
     particularly true for old defending process
     technologies, like the open-hearth steel furnace, where
     the last new unit of its type was built many years ago.
     Cost estimates for these processes were related
     directly to estimates obtained for challenging
     processes.  The comparison between hydrotreating and
     drying and sweetening, included in the representative
     industry evaluation of petroleum refining, is a case in
     point.  Operating costs for drying and sweetening can
     be expected to be lower than those attributed to a
     hydrotreating unit, due to the large hydrogen
     requirements of the latter process.  Where operational
     differences could be clearly indicated in this manner,
     costs were estimated in accordance with these
     deviations; otherwise, costs were presumed to be
     roughly comparable.


End-of-Pipe Costs

The Reference Case for abatement costs is the set of costs
provided for each industrial sector in Sections Two and
Three of this report.  These estimates were developed for
current and projected plant inventories using treatment cost
curves which are contained in Reference 3.  This material
was supplemented by information obtained from EPA
development documents, technical and trade journals, and


                           1-51

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other recent studies on the costs of pollution control.  To
make this data base responsive to the specific needs of the
process change investigation, methods had to be devised for
the allocation of Reference Case costs between specific unit
processes, and the translation of waste load reductions
possible through process change into a revised estimate of
end-of-pipe costs.
ALLOCATION OF REFERENCE CASE COSTS

Much of the information concerning abatement costs has been
developed only at the plant level, while process changes
frequently affect a single phase of the production process.
Where this dichotomy exists, some technique for apportioning
treatment costs among the processes within a plant is
necessary.  The demands on this allocation method increase
with the complexity of the control problem.

In the simplest case, each piece of pollution control
equipment in the treatment scheme can be associated with the
abatement of a particular pollutant generated at a single
source within the plant; e.g., a baghouse for control of
particulates from process A, and a wet scrubber for control
of sulfuroxide from process B.  In this instance, the only
information required for cost allocation is the breakdown of
total abatement costs into the expenditures required for
each control component.

More often, however, a pollutant is generated at a number of
sources within a plant.  In the case of copper smelting,
sulfur oxide off-gases, are produced in various proportions
during each of the major processing steps (roasting,
furnacing, or conversion).  Some, or all, of these streams
may be combined and sent to the same treatment sequence.  If
a control device handles wastes from several plant sources,
some portion of the related costs of control should be
assigned to each of these process sources on the basis of
the fraction of total pollutant loading each contributes.
To calculate these fractions, emissions factors that
establish a general ratio between pollution and output must
be obtained for each relevant process.  These factors, when
multiplied by the model plant unit capacity, provide an
estimate of plant waste loads.  If roasting is found to
contribute 55 percent of plant sulfur oxides, it is presumed
that it can be assigned 55 percent of the reference case
costs incurred in controlling that waste stream by means of
                           1-52

-------
a scrubber, acid plant, etc.  This assumed one-to-one
correspondence is not entirely accurate, due to the fact
that wastes classified in the same general pollutant
category  (TSS, particulates) can have widely-divergent
strengths and treatabilities.  Nonetheless, the relationship
is a generally accepted rule of thumb which has been
employed in other recent abatement cost studies.*

In a single plant, many different types of pollutants are
generated, and must be controlled by the same abatement
facilities.  Ideally, some portion of the total costs should
be allocated to each of the pollutants removed by the
treatment system.  Formulas of this type have been developed
for the inorganic and organic chemicals industry.5 There
were serious limitations, however, in the application of
this type of analysis to the representative industry
examples.  Detailed breakdowns of model plant waste loads to
the subprocess level are only available for a limited number
of pollutants.  Similarly, references on waste reductions
resulting from process changes often confined their
discussion to one or two major parameters,  consequently, it
was frequently necessary to designate one pollutant as the
dominant concern of industry abatement standards.  In the
petroleum industry, for example, BOD removal was concluded
to be the compelling force behind BPT standards; costs for
installation of the required biological treatment systems
were therefore allocated between the various in-plant
sources of that pollutant.


WASTE REDUCTIONS AND REVISED
ABATEMENT COSTS

The relationship between the reduction in waste load and the
reduction in treatment costs is not proportional.  A 10
percent diminution of plant wastes might result in a 5, 8,
or even 12 percent savings on control expenditures,
depending on factors like the economies of scale involved,
the degree to which control systems are modular, etc.  Two
approaches were utilized to determine the cost reduction
associated with a given level of waste reduction.  Where
information estimating this relationship was provided in the
literature, this material was employed.  An example of this
type of information is the study by McGovern« on waste
reduction in the petroleum industry.   In the absence of
specific analysis, end-of-pipe cost savings were measured by
moving down the treatment cost curves'' to a facility size


                           1-53

-------
consistent with the waste load reduction achieved.  The
difference between, this revised value and Reference Case
costs represents the  savings.  After the revised level of
end-of-pipe expenditures is determined, allocation of these
costs among unit processes is again undertaken in the manner
outlined above.

The example of substituting hydrotreating for drying and
sweetening can be used as an illustration of these two
procedures.  A model plant configuration was chosen8 which
included drying and sweetening.  Using BOD as a surrogate
indicator, the contribution of this process to the total
refinery waste burden was 45 percent.  This fraction was
then applied to the estimated total for plant end-of-pipe
expenditures, to determine the costs attributable to drying
and sweetening.  For the same plant, waste loads were
recalculated, utilizing lower polluting hydrotreating
processes in place of drying and sweetening.  The resulting
reduction in waste (42 percent) was converted into its
equivalent effect on end-of-pipe costs (23 percent), using
materials generated by the McGovern study.  The percentage
of new total BOD coming from hydrotreating was calculated,
with this fraction applied to the revised cost estimate.


Economic and Environmental
Motivations for Process Change
and the Allocation of Cost Effects

In addition to indicating the substitution potential of new
processing concepts and the pollution control cost savings
resulting from their implementation, the unit cost
comparisons can serve as a basis for speculation about the
motivating force behind a process change decision.  In some
cases, e.g., spill containment in the paper industry,
process changes are adopted that provide no economic return
on investment, the only benefit being a reduction in end-of-
pipe costs.  Changes of this type can truly be said to be
environmentally inspired.  Therefore, the costs for
installing and operating the containment system should be
charged to pollution control.  Conversely, some concepts,
like the Bayer-Alcoa aluminum process, have processing
advantages that are sufficient to insure their adoption
before end-of-pipe savings are taken into account.  An
approximate line of demarcation beyond which process changes
are economically motivated is an industry's minimum
acceptable rate of return.  Since pollution control savings
                           1-5U

-------
are incidental to the decision maker in cases providing
greater rates of return, it is inappropriate to attribute
these costs to pollution control.

In between these two clear cases lies a substantial gray
area.  Recovery and sale of byproduct H2S and NH3 in a large
petroleum refinery9 results in a return~of about 3.6 percent
a year; this profit margin would not in itself be sufficient
to justify the investment.  However, when environmental
savings are included and the revised treatment system is
contrasted with a pure end-of-pipe approach, the process
becomes very desirable.  It would be logical to charge only
part of the process change costs to pollution control.

This concept, although important to recognize, can not be
accurately implemented given the present data base.  Minimum
acceptable rates of return vary by several percentage points
among companies in the same industry.  A more detailed
analysis of industry is required to delineate these
variances.  Similarly, there is a degree of inaccuracy in
the estimations of process cost effects.  Even a slight
error can negate the accuracy of a carefully-constructed
allocation algorithm.  Since only a few of the changes
examined in the representative industry studies lay in this
gray area, none of the savings in basic process costs
stemming from process change were included in the estimates
of control cost reductions.  It should be emphasized,
however, that the resulting estimates represent the lower
boundary of possible savings.


Costing at the Industry Level

Even though a particular process change may be shown to be
economically profitable on the basis of the unit level
comparison, the opportunities for its application may not be
fully exploited.  It is necessary to establish the industry
context into which process change variables are introduced
because certain characteristics of the industry environment
will constrain or encourage adoption of new process ideas.
Table 2 presents a partial representative list of elements
in the contextual picture that were examined for their
possible influence on the rate of penetration.  These
limiting factors can be physical or financial, and not all
of these factors are applicable to each industry considered
in the representative evaluations.
                           1-55

-------


































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Because the possibilities for process substitution in a
given industry are dependent on the complex interactions of
several variables, a scenario approach was utilized to
indicate the range of possible results.  Two basic scenarios
were defined: a maximum, and a best-guess estimate of .
process change penetration.  In the aluminum industry, for
example, the best-guess market share for the Alcoa smelting
process in 1985 is 8 percent of primary aluminum capacity;
if maximum penetration is assumed, the share increases to 12
percent.  The difference between these scenarios is the
assumption of price or other constraints on the availability
of bauxite and energy inputs.  In some cases, the maximum
and best-guess penetrations are equivalent.

For each alternative, pollution control costs as modified by
process change were calculated and compared against the
Reference Case estimates.  To aggregate costs to the
industry level, a size distribution of existing and future
plants was estimated.  The cost studies in Sections Two and
Three of this report assign existing facilities in the plant
inventory to various size classes.  For future growth, plant
capacities were developed from information on known
expansion plans and extrapolation of recent size trends.
                      INDUSTRY SURVEY
This section summarizes the results of an industry survey to
identify those process change opportunities having
implications for pollution control costs.  Each industry
considered in the cost studies of Sections Two and Three in
this report were assessed to determine the answers to two
questions: Is the industry a significant contributor to air
and water pollution, and are there opportunities for process
change that can reduce the total cost of abatement?  By
comparing estimates of current industry effluent levels with
corresponding national totals, a general measure of
significance was developed.  If an industry contributed more
than 1 percent of the national total for any major pollutant
parameter, it was considered to be a significant polluter.
In the case of air emissions, this analysis was supplemented
by comparing industry abatement costs to total abatement
expenditures.  Additionally, sectors were judged significant
if they were responsible for highly toxic emissions
                           1-57

-------
(mercury, asbestos, etc.)
problems.
that pose special abatement
If the answer to the first questions was affirmative, the
industry was further investigated for process change
potential.  Trade journals and other magazines, EPA
development documents, previous Cost of Clean Air and Water
reports, and other reports on the subject of industrial
pollution control formed the base from which the survey
results were developed.  A process change was considered a
viable alternative only if it had at least been tested at
the pilot plant level.

The results of the industry survey are summarized in
Table 3, with additional information provided in the
industry profiles.10 All process changes discussed in these
profiles have been classified according to the type of
process change involved, the media affected, and whether or
not the change was included as part of the Reference Case
abatement strategy.
                           1-58

-------
                          Table 3.
                 Summary of Survey Results
Industry Category

Fossil Fuels Group

  Coal Cleaning
  Natural Gas
    Processing
  Petroleum Refining
  Steam Electric
    Power

Foods Group

  Feedlots
  Meat Products
    Processing
  Dairy Products
    Processing
  Seafood Processing
  Canned & Frozen
    Fruits and
    Vegetables
  Feed Mills
  Grain Handling
  Beet Sugar
  Cane Sugar
  Fertilizer/
    Phosphates

Construction Materials
 Group

  Cement
  Lime
  Asphalt
  Asbestos
  Insulation
    Fiberglass

Metals Group

  Aluminum
Significant
Polluter?*
               Pollution Reduction
               Potential Through
               Process Change?
   A,W

   Afw



     w

     W

     w
     W
     w
   A
   A
     W
     W
A


A
                       W
                       w

                       w

                       w
                     No
                       W
                     No
                     NO
                     No
                     NO
                        No


                        No
                        No
   A,W
                     A,W
                           1-59

-------
                    Table 3. (Continued)
                 Summary of Survey Results
Industry Category
Significant
Polluter?*
Pollution Reduction
Potential Through
Process Change?
Metals Group
 (con11)

  Copper               A
  Iron and Steel       A,w
  Lead                 A?
  Zinc                 	
  Other Non-
    Ferrous Metals     A,W*
  Electroplating         W

Chemicals Group

  Inorganic
    Chemicals          A,W*
  Organic
    Chemicals            W
  Miscellaneous
    Chemicals          	
  Plastics &
    Synthetics           W

consumer Product
 Inputs Group

  Timber Products
    Processing         	
  Pulp & Paper
    Mills              A,w
  Builders Paper
    and Board
    Mills              	
  Textiles               W
  Soaps and
    Detergents         	
  Leather Tanning        W
  Glass                	
  Rubber               	
                        A
                        A,W
                        No
                        NO
                          W
                          W
                        No
                          W
                          W
                        No
                           1-60

-------
                    Table 3.  (Continued)
                 Summary of Survey Results
                                      Pollution Reduction
                    Significant       Potential Through
Industry Category   Polluter?1        Process Change?

Consumer and
 Government Services
 Group

  Dry Cleaning         A                    A
  Municipal
    Solid Waste
    Disposal           A                    A
  Sewage Systems       	                  	

Key:  A-Air; W-Water.

*Sectors are listed if they either pay more than 1% of total
national abatement expenditures**, or generate more than 1%
of the national total of particulates, hydrocarbons, SO2,
NOX, BOD, COD, TSS, or oils and greases.12

2Sectors generating highly toxic emissions.

'Sectors found to be nonsignificant polluters were not
investigated further.
For several reasons, process ideas now being considered will
not exert the same degree of influence over an industry's
future planning.  Some processes, though promising in
theory, may encounter operational difficulties that
substantially reduce currently anticipated economic
benefits; other changes may be restricted in application to
plants of a certain type, size, or age.  Therefore, twenty-
two "candidates" for further study were selected from the
initial list of opportunities as best prospects for
implementation within the time frame and at a level where
they could seriously influence the abatement cost outlook
for an industry.  These changes are categories by type of
process change and by industrial sector in Table 4.
                           1-61

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At this point, five industries were selected for in-depth
study: Copper, Aluminum, Pulp and Paper, Petroleum Refining,
and Inorganic Chemicals.  These industries were chosen
because they were industries in which two or more process
changes are concurrently being considered, and collectively,
they contained examples of all the major types of process
change.  Additionally, it was felt that the data base of
process change information in these areas was rich enough to
permit detailed analysis.  Short summaries of these
representative evaluations are provided in the next section.
            REPRESENTATIVE INDUSTRY EVALUATIONS

Copper

The main environmental problem facing the copper industry is
the control of sulfur dioxide contained in the off-gases
from reverberatory furnaces used in primary smelting
operations.  Because of the very weak concentration of these
gases (usually less than 1 percent sulfur dioxide by
volume), they cannot be treated effectively through
conversion into sulfuric acid.  The costs of abatement are
consequently very substantial; expenditures on control
measures in a recent year, for example, represented 22
percent of total capital investment.13 As a result, U.S.
producers have greatly increased their interest in
processing innovations that have the potential to reduce the
industry's control burden.  Research efforts have been
directed in support of three main process alternatives:
flash furnaces, electric furnaces, and hydrometallurgical
smelting.  The first American commercial scale example of
each technology has either been installed within the past 5
years or is currently under construction.


PROCESS CHANGES

Flash smelting is a. commercially proven technology that has
been employed extensively in Europe and Japan for over a
decade.   Off-gases from the furnace attain sulfur dioxide
concentrations of 10-1ft percent and can be easily handled by
an acid plant.  By combining treatment of all plant
emissions in a single facility, a 1,500-ton of concentrates
per day smelter can achieve an estimated 11 percent
reduction in capital requirements, and a 27.2 percent


                           1-65

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reduction in -the annualized costs of pollution control.
Although process costs for the flash furnace are somewhat
higher due to additional slag processing requirements,
overall unit costs figure to be 10-20 percent less than
those estimated for a reverberatory furnace of comparable
size.  On this basis, it is projected that up to 50 percent
of new pyrometallurgical capacity requirements in 1975-80,
and 75 percent in 1981-85, will be supplied by flash
smelters.  If recently proposed new source performance
standards1* are promulgated which would specify more
stringent and much more costly controls on reverberatory
furnaces, the rate of penetration by the challenging
technology will be further accelerated.

Electric furnaces claim a dual advantage over their
reverberatory counterparts; they increase the sulfur dioxide
concentration of off-gases by eliminating combustion gases
within the furnace, and they exhibit a higher thermal
efficiency.  Two existing U.S. smelters have already made
the switch to this technology as part of their abatement
strategy.  The smelting site must be close to a source of
cheap electric power if the process is to be economically
competitive.  This fact alone will seriously restrict
application of this technology in some of the remote and
arid western mining areas.  In addition, industry spokesmen
have frequently expressed doubts»s about the operating
reliability of electric furnaces,  consequently, the option
is viewed as a less preferred alternative, with its
substitution possibilities limited to areas where the cost
of power is low enough to override other concerns.

Two hydrometallurgical smelting techniques, the Arbiter and
Cy-Met processes, are in advanced stages of development.
Major questions affecting evaluation of the substitution
potential of these concepts concern the time frame in which
successful scale-up can occur, and the extent to which
current process cost estimates will accurately represent
commercial scale results.  If the operating economics
achieved during pilot plant operations can be maintained,
hydrometallurgy can reduce annual process costs by up to 25
percent; in addition, pollution control costs are
practically zero, requiring only some form of storage or
disposal for the sulfate solid waste which is produced.
Even after successful scale-up, substitution will proceed
slowly; hydrometallurgy will constitute no more than H
percent total primary capacity by 1980, and 12 percent by
1985.
                           1-66

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In addition to these basic process changes, it is necessary
to assess the market opportunities for sale of the byproduct
sulfuric acid generated during the control process.  If
there are profitable opportunities present, some of the
estimated costs of pollution control can be defrayed;
contrarily, if no opportunities exist, the costs of
neutralization and disposal of the byproduct should be
counted as an additional abatement expense.  Competition for
markets will be very strong, and smelter acids face one
major disadvantage by being far from their primary users.
However, smelters can take advantage of opportunities within
the industry to use H2S04 as a leaching agent to extract
copper from oxide ores and mine tailings;1* they can also
increase their marketability by selling acid at a price well
below the going market rate.  Based on these parameters,
four possible price/market opportunity scenarios were
examined.  In the combination of circumstances deemed most
likely to occur, it was assumed that 12 of the primary
smelters with acid plants will be able to sell their acid at
an average price well below market rate, resulting in
revenue of over $30 million per year.
INDUSTRY EFFECTS

The percentage reduction in pollution control costs
resulting from implementation of the process changes
discussed above is summarized in Table 5.  The bulk of the
savings attained through 1980 is the result of byproduct
acid sales; the major increase in savings estimated for 1985
is attributable to greater application of flash and
hydrometallurgical smelting technologies.
                           1-67

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                          Table 5.
               Copper Industry Abatement cost
              Reduction Through Process Change
                       Percentage Change from Reference
                       Case Abatement Costs (with
                       Process Change)»
Cumulative Investment
 (from 1972)
1980

 -8.0%
1985

-18.1%
Annual Costs           -15.6%            -26.5%

1 Prom Scenario 2 - air control costs only.



Aluminum

The two pollutants of primary concern to the aluminum
industry are red mud from the refining of bauxite, and
fluorides from the reduction of alumina to aluminum.  Red
mud is usually impounded in an evaporation pond, and it is
thus possible to achieve zero discharge.17 Fluoride is
associated with the Hall reduction process and is about 70
percent controlled to date.  Existing facilities may have to
install expensive secondary roof scrubbers to achieve the
proposed standards of 90 percent capture.

A new source performance standard of 95.5 percent removal is
achievable by the Alcoa Dry Scrubbing Process.18 Other types
of cells will require expensive secondary scrubbers.  Thus,
pollution control factors are prompting consideration of
alternative technologies,


PROCESS CHANGES

Three process substitutions may have an effect on pollution
control costs in the aluminum industry.  The most direct
factor would be an increase in the capacity to recycle scrap
aluminum.  Substitution of the Bayer-Alcoa19 process for the
Bayer-Hall would decrease the unit pollution control costs
from primary smelting by 73 percent.  Non-electrolytic
                           1-68

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processes, like the Monochloridezo process would probably
increase the unit cost of pollution control by 13 percent.
Such a technology might be considered in the future because
of energy and bauxite constraints.
INDUSTRY-WIDE COST REDUCTION

The penetration of new technologies is related to the growth
rate of the industry, which in turn is related to the
industry's pollution control cost.  The absence of
constraints on raw material availability or pollution output
tends to preserve the present technology.  Moderately-
constrained growth tends to encourage the search for less-
costly alternatives.  However, for purposes of comparison, a
7 percent growth scenario with moderate penetration of
recycling and the Bayer-Alcoa process is presented here.

The costs resulting from a Bayer-Hall/Bayer-Alcoa/recycling
mix of 77 percent/1 percent/22 percent in 1980 and 68
percent/ 8 percent/24 percent mix in 1985 are shown in Table
6; note the lower capital and annualized operating figures
for the process change case.  The large increase in savings
is due to the increased coverage of recycling and the Bayer-
Alcoa process.
                          Table 6.
     Aluminum Industry Abatement Cost Reduction Through
                       Process Change

                       Percentage Change from Reference
                       Case Abatement Costs (with
                       Process Change) »
Cumulative Investment
 (from 1972)
1980

(-1.8%)
1985

(-9.6%)
Annual Costs            (-9.0%)           (-9.0%)

1 From Scenario 2 - air and water control costs.
                           1-69

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Pulp and Paper Industry

The paper industry discharged 2.47 billion gallons of water
in 1972, even though it was recycled over three times during
processing.*» About 60 percent of that water was used in
direct process contact, higher than any other industrial
activity.  This leads to a discharge of about 2.2 million
tons per year each of BOD and of suspended solids.2Z The
industry spent 30 percent of its capital investment, the
largest percentage of any manufacturing industry, in an
effort to meet pollution control standards,23
PROCESS CHANGES

The pulp and paper industry has several short-term and
several long-term water pollution control savings
opportunities through process change.  In the short-term
(1975-1980), process modifications and product
specifications changes can have a significant effect.
Process modifications designed to contain spills, recover
fiber, process chemical and energy have some savings
involved.  They range from a 20 percent savings per ton to a
65 percent savings per ton where applicable.2* The increased
use of lower brightness papers can result in a 67 percent
saving in pollution control costs where applicable.2'
Unfortunately, the applicability of these changes is limited
to moderately old plants and the industrial tissue market,
so that the overall savings potential is decreased.

The long-term (1980-1985) process substitutions of oxygen
processes and dry forming, appear to have a substantial
effect on the cost of pollution control.2*r 2T The use of
oxygen for bleaching, waste treatment, and process liquor
recovery result in a 53 percent savings in water pollution
control costs.  Dry forming of paper eliminates water
pollution control costs where applicable.  These process
substitutions appear to have a wide range of applicability,
but are limited to new capacity implementation.
INDUSTRY-WIDE COST REDUCTION

If it is assumed that 30 percent existing capacity and all
of the new capacity before 1980 will take advantage of the
near-term savings, and that 50 percent of new capacity after
1980 will take advantage of the long-term savings, the paper
                           1-70

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industry can achieve water pollution control costs savings
as shown in Table 7.
                          Table 7.
      Abatement Cost Redaction Through Process Change
       Pulp and Paper Industry, Water Pollution Costs
                       Percentage Change from Reference
                       Case Abatement Costs  (with
                       Process Change) *

                       1980              1985

Cumulative Investment  (-7.i»%)           (-1tt.4%)
(from 1972)

Annualized cost        (-17.6%)           (-27.1%)

* From Scenario 2 - water control costs only.
Petroleum Refining

The petroleum industry has made a number of in-plant
improvements in the past designed to improve water effluent
characteristics and increase water reuse and recycle rates.
These efforts have been fruitful, with the water reuse ratio
in the industry almost doubling in the last 20 years;
nonetheless, refineries face substantial future outlays for
pollution control systems.  In-plant process changes
designed to minimize end-of-pipe treatment requirements are
likely to be a major part of the overall abatement strategy
selected.
PROCESS CHANGES

Many proposed changes affect operations at the subprocess
level, and can achieve substantial reductions in plant waste
loadings for a fairly small initial capital outlay.  An
example of this type of process modification is the recovery
of phenols produced during catalytic cracking.  Removal of
this pollutant can reduce total plant BOD by 7 percent and
end of pipe costs by 5 percent.  Additionally, there are


                           1-71

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economic advantages arising from the recovery of free oils
entrained in the wastewaters from the cracker.  Analysis of
the effects of installing such a unit in three model
refinery configurations*", 2* indicates that this change
could be profitable for a group of refineries comprising 65
percent of current total capacity.

Recovery of byproduct sulphur and ammonia from refinery sour
waters has been a widely practiced technique in recent
years, and is recommended in the EPA Development Document^
as part of BPT abatement strategy.  Analysis in this section
of the study focused on estimation of the cost-offsetting
benefits achievable through sales of recovered materials.
Available process cost data on typical stripping and
recovery facilities3* demonstrates a potential for returns
on investment of up to 20 percent per year, provided that
all byproduct can be sold.  For both sulphur and ammonia, a
detailed analysis3« was made of market conditions; and an
assessment given of the competitive opportunities available
to refinery producers.  Results of this investigation
indicated that sales of the ammonia and sulphur generated at
current production levels could translate into revenues of
$62 and $50 million, respectively, provided that maximum
sour water recovery was practiced using dual stage stripping
techniques.  In addition, maximum processing resulted in 15
percent reductions in typical refinery BOD loadings, with a
corresponding pollution control savings of 25 percent.

Greater use of hydrocracking has often been suggested as a
way to reduce air and water pollution problems resulting
from catalytic cracking operations.  Although hydrocracking
units offer greater operational flexibility and increased
product yields in addition to reducing pollution problems,
industry adoption of the process since its development in
the 1960's has been very cautious.  The major obstacle to
implementation has been the higher costs associated with the
challenging processes; this gap has recently widened due to
sharp increases in hydrocracking input prices.  AS a result,
a great deal of effort has been funneled into modification
and improvement of the defending process.  Major
developments include use of new catalysts requiring less
frequent regeneration, and the installation of carbon
monoxide waste heat boilers.  These recent events indicate a
resurgence of expansion to catalytic cracking, with a
resulting increase in end-of-pipe requirements and costs.
                           1-72

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The use of hydroprocessing techniques has been rapidly
increasing over the past decade, growing at an average of 8
percent per year.  The addition of hydro-desulfurization
steps to refinery operations reduces the waste burden of
sulphur, nitrogen, and metals requiring end-of-pipe
treatment, and concentrates these constitutents in sour
water streams which can be readily processed for byproduct
recovery.  In other areas of refinery, hydrotreating
processing can replace older, dirtier processes like acid
treating, or drying and sweetening.  Although the impetus
for greater use of the processes is still strong, there are
definite limitations on further extension of these processes
in refineries which have already exhausted their in-plant
hydrogen surplus, since hydrogen production facilities are
an expensive capital cost item.33 Further penetration by
this process is likely to occur at a slower rate.
INDUSTRY-WIDE COST EFFECTS

It was very difficult to quantify the pollution cost savings
possible in the petroleum refining sector.  If all process
changes discussed in this chapter were implemented in a
specific refinery, waste load reductions of up to 60 percent
could be achieved.  There are many limitations restricting
the substitution possibilities which exist; and, given the
diverse structure of the industry, it was hard to determine
the number of plants that were actually constrained.
Nonetheless, it is believed that these various concepts
could be introduced at a level sufficient to reduce average
waste loadings of BOD by 20 percent.  This corresponds to
about 12 percent reduction in end-of-pipe capital and 06M
costs.  Additional revenue is added from byproduct recovery.
Percentage estimates are summarized in Table 8.
                           1-73

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                          Table S.
    Petroleum Refining Abatement Cost Reduction Through
                       Process Change
                       Percentage Change from Reference Case
                       Abatement Costs  (with Process
                       Change)*
                       1980

Cumulative Investment  (-12.0%)
1972)
1985

(-12.0%)  (from
Annual Costs            (37.3%)           (-33.*%)

* From Scenario 2 - water control costs only.



Inorganic Chemicals

Chemical and allied products rank first in industrial water
consumption, with inorganics accounting for over one-fifth
of this use.3* The vast majority  (72.3 percent) of,water
intake by inorganic chemicals is for cooling, with only 11.1
percent used as process water.  The principal wastes are
inorganic salts including chlorides, sulfates, carbonates,
etc; other significant wastes include ore tailings and
metals, such as chromium, mercury, lead and iron.  In EPA's
evaluation of water-borne pollution from 25 major
inorganics, over 99 percent of the waste load was attributed
to five products: sodium chloride (38.3 percent), sodium
carbonate  (35.6 percent), titanium dioxide (17.1 percent),
and the coproducts chlorine/ sodium hydroxide  (8.5
percent).35 Each of these large waste products was evaluated
for process change potential.


SODIUM CHLORIDE

sodium chloride waste is usually deep-welled or stored, and
does not pose a difficult water pollution problem.
                           1-74

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SODIUM CARBONATE

There are two manufacturing processes for sodium carbonate
 (or soda ash).  The older Solvay process synthesizes sodium
carbonate from salt and limestone, with ammonia serving as a
chemical intermediary.  Approximately 1.5 kilograms of
dissolved solid wastes are generated per kilogram of
prpduct.*6 The dissolved solids are about two-thirds calcium
chloride, with the remainder mainly unreacted salt.  The
solids have slight market value and are usually discharged
into surrounding water bodies.  In contrast, the newer
process utilizes natural ore, called Trona, or lake brines
containing burkeite.  Neither of these alternatives
generates a troublesome waste, since ore tailings and brine
wastes can be returned to the mine or lake.

The Solvay process has been steadily losing ground.  No
Solvay plants have been built since 1935.  From 1960 to 1972
Solvay plan participation in soda ash production declined
from 85 percent to 58 percent.  The one advantage still held
by the Solvay plants is geographic location.  The Trona and
lake brine deposits are concetrated in Wyoming and
California, whereas market concentrations lie in the East.
As a result, the natural ores have only gradually displaced
the Solvay plants; pollution control requirements promise to
'speed this displacement.  Partially due to such
considerations, two Solvay plants closed between 1972 and
 1974, furthest reducing process participation to 46 percent.
The extent of jSolvay process participation is the principal
factor determining the aggregate water pollution control
cost for sodium carbonate production.  The anticipated
closing of two of the smaller plants by 1977 will cut Solvay
capacity by one-quarter, and reduce abatement capital and
annualized costs by 28 percent  (BPT and BAT costs are the
same for this product).

Another important consideration is whether to recover a
portion of the waste calcium chloride for byproduct sale.
Assuming there is a sufficient market, recovery and sale of
20 percent of the calcium chloride would lead to an 81
percent reduction in annualized costs, but would necessitate
a 206 percent increase in capital requirements.
                            1-75

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TITANIUM DIOXIDE

There is competition both among processes and raw materials
for the production of titanium dioxide.  The older, sulfate
process utilizes a more abundant, less pure ore, called
ilmenite.  Until recently, the newer chloride process has
been restricted to the use of the purer rutile ore.  Since
the reserve of the latter is quite limited, 20 to 25 years
at present consumption rates, raw material costs have played
a large role in process selection.  In spite of the rutile
constraint, process efficiencies achieved with the chloride
process have enabled it to increase its production share to
16 percent since its introduction in the mid-1950's.  No new
sulfate plants have been built since 1956,

Recent sharp increases in rutile and chlorine prices have
tended to slow the encroachment of the chloride process.
However, environmental considerations are lending a new
competitive edge to the chloride process.  The sulfate
process generates H to 5 times the amount of waste per
kilogram as compared with only 1.2 times for the chloride
process.37, »• A significant aspect of the difference in
waste load is the use of a purer raw material by the
chloride process.  The sulfate waste is mainly spent
sulfuric acid and ferrous sulfate (copperas).  The waste
from the chloride process is primarily ferric chloride.
Abatement capital requirements for the chloride process are
only 56 percent of those for the sulfate process for BPT,
and 65 percent for BAT.  Similarly, annualized costs for the
chloride process are HO percent of those for the sulfate
process for BPT, and 59 percent for BAT. s«

Byproduct recovery is an important aspect of the pollution
control opportunities for titanium dioxide.  Ferric chloride
from the chloride process is already being recovered and
sold for water treatment by some companies, and can
alternatively be converted to chlorine for recycling and to
iron oxide for sale,  sulfate process waste acid can either
be recovered and recycled or converted to gypsum, and then
sold.  Acid recovery, and recycle in the sulfate process
alone enables a 22.* percent reduction in the total titanium
dioxide accumulated capital expenditures for abatement
through 1985, and a 23.2 percent reduction in annualized
abatement costs in 1985.
                           1-76

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CHLORINE

Environmental considerations have acted to reverse an
ongoing shift among process alternatives for chlorine
production.  Worldwide usage of the mercury cell
electrolysis process for chlorine substantially exceeds that
of the competing diaphragm cell; in the United States, the
latter has always been predominant.  Nevertheless, mercury
cell participation in U.S. chlorine manufacture had been on
the rise, increasing from 4.3 percent of production in 1946
to 28.6 percent in 1968.  At that point, concern regarding
mercury emissions to the environment surfaced.  Since then,
some existing plants have converted from mercury cells to
diaphragm cells, and little new mercury cell capacity is
being added.  By 1973, mercury cell participation had
declined to 24.6.*°

The wastes from the mercury and diaphragm cells are similar:
brine impurities, unreacted salt, weak caustic, waste
sulfuric acid, sodium hydrochlorate and sodium bicarbonate.
However, the mercury cell waste also contains a limited
quantity of mercury.  The need for strict control of the
mercury content causes significant abatement cost
differences between the two cell-types.  The diaphragm cell
abatement capital requirements for BPT and BAT are only 13
percent and 36.4 percent, respectively, of those for the
mercury cell.  Likewise, the annualized capital cost
comparison is 25.7 percent and 44.9 percent for BPT and
BAT.*» As a result, the ongoing shift from the mercury cell,
if no new mercury cell plants are built, will reduce the
accumulated capital expenditures through 1985 by 16.4
percent, relative to the Reference Case, and  1985 annualized
costs for pollution control by 12.8 percent.  It should be
noted that a great deal of developmental work is underway to
bring mercury cell control costs into line with those of the
diaphragm cell.


INDUSTRY-WIDE COST REDUCTION

The industry-wide implications of the process change
opportunities for the four chemicals, sodium carbonate,
titanium dioxide, and chlorine/caustic, are presented in
Table 9.  The four chemicals account for more than half the
abatement capital and annualized cost requirements for the  :
entire industry.  Presuming other chemicals have similar
process change opportunities, a 38.1 percent reduction in


                           1-77

-------
abatement annualized costs in 1980 can be achieved and a
25.0 percent reduction in 1985.  A slight (2.5 percent)
reduction can be made in cumulative capital expenditures.
                          Table 9.
        Inorganic Chemicals Abatement Cost Reduction
                   Through Process change

                       Percentage Change from Reference
                       case Abatement Costs  (with
                       Process Change)*
Cumulative Investment
(from 1972)

Annual Costs
1980

 (OX)


(-38.1%)
 1985

 (-2.5%)


(-25.0%)
1 From Scenario 2 - water control costs only.
                      GENERALIZATIONS

Range of Pollution
Control Savings

The range of pollution control savings through process
modifications varies among industry and category types of
process change.  This variation is to be expected if one
considers the specific implementation limits on any given
process change.  Financial, technical, and physical
constraints to process change vary considerably between
industries and within each industry*  The highly-specific
nature of process changes and the varied nature of the
industrial climate in which they are imbedded inhibits
generalization.

Substantial savings have been demonstrated in the
representative industry studies.  These savings vary
considerably from industry to industry as shown in Table 10.
On the capital side, they range from a savings of 2.5
percent in inorganics to 1U.5 percent in copper.  The
annualized savings are somewhat larger than capital savings,
                           1-78

-------
ranging from 11 percent in the aluminum industry to 30
percent in the petroleum industry.  The advantages  accrued
through process change within the representative industry
studies may serve as an indication of the range of  potential
savings in a similar situation in another industry.  It is
worthwhile to emphasize the approximative nature of the
following generalizations; they are made to facilitate
estimation of the overall effects of process change,  and
they do not represent precise assessments of the situation
in a given industry.
                           1-79

-------
















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-------
Variations Within
Process change Types

The variation across industries within a process change
category is quite pronounced.  The following paragraphs
examine the impacts of material changes, process
modifications, and process substitutions.
MATERIALS CHANGES

The least variation and least sizable savings appears in the
Materials Change category.  Paper specification changes are
limited to a 0.1 percent savings in total industry capital,
and a 0.3 percent savings in industry annualized costs
because of limited market acceptability.  Sodium carbonate
and titanium dioxide raw material changes account for a
capital/annualized cost savings of 2.1 percent/2.1 percent,
respectively because of low profit margins (low  change
incentive).  Increased aluminum recycling (scrap as a raw
material) results in a 3.2 percent and 3.3 percent savings
in capital and annualized costs, respectively.  These
relatively low savings are due primarily to supply
constraints on consumer scrap and the quality limitations of
secondary aluminum which limit recycling penetration.

In considering other industry material change opportunities,
metallic ores provide varied cases of pollution control cost
impact.  Oxide ores of copper may be leached using acid from
the acid plant at a copper smelter.  For such process
change, an overall decrease in pollution control on the
order of 2 percent for the whole industry might be expected.
In contrast,.the substitution of lower grade bauxite or
alunite in aluminum production as higher grade ores become
expensive will probably increase total industry pollution
control costs by about 2 percent.  Ilmenite processed to
synthetic rutile (Inorganics)  may cause a slightly increased
(1 percent) pollution control cost.  Product specification
changes toward low-sulfur-petroleum-derived products will
also tend to increase the cost of the cleanup in the
petroleum industry.
                           1-81

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PROCESS MODIFICATIONS

Opportunities for both revised process operations and
byproduct recovery were evaluated in the five industry
studies.  There were two examples of revised operations
examined quantitatively: spill containment (paper)  and
phenol recycle (petroleum refining).  Both examples affected
process efficiency primarily by reducing the waste load and
water use associated with process operations, while their
effects on product yields are negligible.  These changes can
be usually implemented for small capital outlays, but their
savings potential is small as well, in the range of 2 to 5
percent of capital and annualized abatement costs.   Other
changes of this type likely to achieve similar savings
include: the use of counterflow washing in textile
manufacturing, the increased recycling of water used in the
processing of fruits and vegetables, and the installation of
surface condensers in petroleum refinery vacuum stills.

Other operational modifications may have a greater effect on
product yield.  Improvement of the catalysts used in the
cracking of petroleum, for example, increases product yield
by 13 percent while simultaneously reducing process wastes.
Changes of this type seem likely to achieve somewhat greater
control cost savings than those modifications discussed
above, if only because the increased economic benefits will
make the change attractive to a greater portion of the
industry.

Byproduct recovery opportunities were found to exist in four
of the five industries studied.  Estimated savings in
annualized abatement costs from application of these
recovery processes range from 9.9 percent to 23 percent.
The savings in capital costs, on the other hand, are very
slight, and in the case of acid recovery during titanium
dioxide manufacture  (organic chemicals), addition of
byproduct processes substantially increases total capital
requirements.

Byproduct options can be divided into two basic categories:
those products which are reused within the recovering plant,
and those products which are sold in the competitive
marketplace.  Examples in the first category include the
recovery of heat, fiber, chemicals  (i.e., sulfuric acid),
and paper.  These byproducts reduce the need for virgin
input materials in the process.  The savings potential of
such measures is primarily dependent on whether the material
                            1-82

-------
recovered is a significant operating expense item for the
plant.  The latter category is represented in the industry
evaluations by the recovery of sulfuric acid (copper),
sulfur and ammonia (petroleum refining), and calcium
chloride (inorganic chemicals).  The determination1 of cost
savings achievable through implementation of these processes
is dependent upon market conditions.  Factors such as demand
for the recovered byproduct and the increased supply levels
combine to establish new price levels.

Based on the considerations discussed above, estimates have
been made of the savings potential of byproduct recovery in
other surveyed industries.  In the first category, recycle
of the chemicals used in electroplating should reduce plant
materials costs substantially, with annual savings in the 16
to 23 percent range possible.  In contrast, three byproduct
recovery operations in the textile industry  (PVA
reclamation, latex recovery, and caustic recovery) will
affect materials requirements only for specific segments of
the industry; consequently, overall savings can be expected
to fall in the lower 10 to 15 percent range.  In the second
category, demand for whey  (dairy products) and recovered
solids to be used in animal feeds (fruits and vegetables) is
fairly weak; possibilities for market expansion seem to be
limited.  Producers of byproduct sawdust  (timber product
processing) and fly ash (electric utilities) were in similar
circumstances a few years ago; however, both industries have
extended their market opportunities by finding various new
applications for their products.  In addition, all of these
examples are products with very low unit prices.
Consequently, it is projected that recovery of whey and
solids can achieve savings somewhat below those encountered
in the industry evaluations, or about 6 to 9 percent of
annual costs, while use of sawdust and fly ash can achieve
10 to 15 percent savings.   For all cases, no capital savings
were assumed.
PROCESS SUBSTITUTIONS

As with other process change opportunities, the abatement
savings achievable through process substitution are limited
by the applicability range of the change and the rate of
substitution.  Process substitutions are usually introduced
during capacity expansions, rather than as retrofit
conversions.  Thus they are related to the rates of industry
growth and equipment obsolesence.  Applicability range means
                           1-83

-------
the fraction of industry able to incorporate a change, the
impact on overall costs of any single change, and the number
of complementary or competitive changes; the effect of the
number of opportunities is reflected in Table 10.  Two
process changes were identified as already underway in the
copper and inorganic chemicals industries—their capital and
annualized cost savings fell between 13.0 and 11.5 percent.
In the other three industries, only one process change was
found to be significant; the resulting capital and
annualized cost savings fell between 5,0 and 7.7 percent.

It is useful to consider how process substitution
possibilities in other industries relate to those in the
five representative industries.  The displacement of
incineration by landfill or minefill in the disposal of
municipal waste is a process substitution affecting air
emissions.  The high cost of incineration equipment is
countered by the high land cost in most urban settings.  In
addition, a great deal of effort is underway to incorporate
the recovery of metallic and thermal resource values in
municipal waste during the incineration step.  Likewise, new
techniques of sanitary landfill are being developed that
facilitate subsequent productive use of that land,  overall,
some displacement of incineration by landfill is envisioned,
leading to abatement costs in the 5.0 to 7.7 percent range.
Another process substitution is the displacement of solvent-
based paints by electrostatically suspended paints.  This
substitution is occurring rapidly, motivated both by
environmental considerations and concern regarding future
shortfalls in solvent supply.  The abatement cost savings
should lie in the high range shown in Table 10 between 13.0
and 11.5 percent.  A similar type of process substitution is
the displacement of petroleum solvents by synthetic solvents
in the dry cleaning industry.  Here the opportunities are
more limited, leading to possible abatement cost savings in
the 5 to 7.7 percent range.  A final example is the
substitution of the basic-oxygen furnace for the open-hearth
furnace in the iron and steel industry.  This substitution
has been underway for some time; it is estimated that the
remaining possibilities for process substitution will only
permit an abatement cost savings of approximately 2 percent.
                           1-84

-------
SUMMARY

The greatest opportunities for abatement cost savings, as
reflected in reduced annualized costs, lie in the area of
process modifications.  In the copper, pulp and paper, and
petroleum industries, process modifications can lead to
annualized cost reductions of more than 20 percent, and in
the inorganic chemicals industry the potential savings are
10 percent.  Process substitution offers the second largest
opportunity for abatement cost savings.  In both the copper
and the inorganic chemicals industries, two significant
process substitutions were identified that lead to abatement
cost reductions of 13 percent for each industry.  In the
aluminum, pulp and paper, and petroleum industries, single
process changes were identified that lead to a range of
annualized cost reductions of 5.0 to 7.7 percent for the
three industries.  The process change opportunities that
lead to the least abatement cost reduction are those
associated with materials changes; the range in annualized
cost reductions is 0.3 to 3.3 percent.  This apparently
reflects a high degree of optimization in the section of the
raw materials now being used.

In addition to the results from the five industries surveyed
in-depth, other known process change opportunities with
readily quantifiable cost effects were incorporated in the
comparison.  This latter group includes greater use of
recycling in the metals-producing sectors, application of
subprocess modifications to textile manufacturing, and
changes in consumer demand patterns for paper products.
Where process change trends that are primarily or partially
inspired by environmental concern have been included in the
Reference Case economic forecast  (e.g., hydrometallurgical
smelting of copper or the Bayer-Alcoa process), adjustments
have been made to the baseline cost estimates.  Where
process changes are an integral part of the Reference Case
control strategy, as in the case of waste heat boilers for
petroleum refinery carbon monoxide control, these values
have not been adjusted because of the absence of a costed-
out alternative strategy.  The results indicate that savings
of almost $2 billion in capital expenditures and SI billion
in annual costs can be attained by 1985 through application
of process change in these industries.  In addition, it
should be recognized that the technologies considered do not
fully exhaust the possibilities within the surveyed
industries.  These industries represent 15.8 percent of
total capital expenditures on abatement by industrial point


                           1-85

-------
sources (excluding mobile sources of emissions, municipal
water treatment and waste incineration, etc.), and 14.2
percent of total annual costs.
                            1-86

-------
                         Footnotes
1.   Saxton, J. and Kramer, M.f "Industrial Chemicals Solid
     Waste Generation," Environmental Protection Technology
     Series, EPA-670/22-7U-078, November 197U.

2.   Bennett, H. J., "An Economic Appraisal of the Supply of
     Copper from Primary Domestic Sources," Bureau of the
     Mines Information Circular 8598, 1973, pp. 25-28, 139-
     146.

3.   Saxton, J., Meyer, R., Jones, T., and Capell, R.,
     "Pollution Control cost Reduction through Process
     Change-Representative Industry Evaluations,"
     International Research and Technology corporation.
     Report for the Environmental Protection Agency under
     Contract 68-01-2826, Arlington, Virginia, May 1975.

1.   Catalytic, Inc., Capabilities and Costs of Technology
     for the Organic and Inorganic Chemicals Industry to
     Achieve the Requirements and Goals of the Federal Water
     Pollution Control Act Amendments g^T9f2£ 2 vols.,
     1975.

5.   Ibid.

6.   McGovern, Joseph H., "Strategy for Industrial
     Wastewater Control Programs", 77th National Meeting -
     AICHE, Pittsburgh, Pa., June 2-5, 197<».

7.   Op.cit., Reference 3.

8.   The Cost of Clean Water, Volume 111^ Industrial Waste
     Profile No. 5; Petroleum Refining, Federal Water
     Pollution Control Administration, November 1967,
     Appendix A, Table 5.

9.   Gould, G. D.  (Chevron Oil Co.), telephone conversation,
     January 30, 1975.

10.  Op.cit., Reference 3.

11.  This analysis is based on the results in the 1971 Cost
     of Clean Air and Water Reports.
                           1-87

-------
12.  This analysis is based on data contained in the
     national residuals generation (RESGEN)  module of the
     Strategic Environmental Assessment System  (SEAS).

13.  "Facing the Change in Copper Technology", Chemical
     Engineering, April 6, 1973, p. 94A-HHH.

14.  "Proposed New Source Standards for the Copper
     Industry", Federal Register, October 15, 1974.

15.  Wall Street Journal, October 16, 1974;  National Journal
     Reports, October 19, 1974; Chemical Engineering, April
     6, 1973.

16.  Wall Street Journal, February 6, 1973,  p.  10.

17.  "Development Document for Proposed Effluent Limitations
     Guidelines and New Source Performance Standards for the
     Bauxite Refining Subcategory of the Aluminum Segment of
     the Non-Ferrous Metals Manufacturing Point Source
     Category", U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-
     440/1-73-019.

18.  Wickes, H.G., Jr. and Whitchurch, J. G., "Flowing
     Consumption Trends/ The Aluminum Industry  (Alcoa 398
     Dry Scrubbing Process)", AIME Paper 73-H-50; given in
     Chicago, March 5, 1973.

19.  "Alcoa to Build Smelter with its New Process at East
     Texas Town", Wall Street Journal, May 24,  1973.

20.  Peacey, J. G., and Davenport, W. G., "Evaluation of
     Alternative Methods of Aluminum Production, Journal of
     Metals, July 1974, pp. 25-28.

21.  "Water Use in Manufacturing", Census of Manufacturers,
     1972.

22.  Ibid, section II, paragraph c.3.b of this report.

23.  "Changes in Store for Pulping Technology",
     Environmenta1 Science and Technology, January 1975.

24.  Main, Charles T., "Spill Containment in the Pulp and
     Paper Industry" and "In Process Effluent Containment in
     the Pulp and Paper Industry" Chas. T. Main, Inc.,
     Boston, Mass, January 1975.
                           1-88

-------

25.  Bower, B. T., et al, "Residuals Management in the Pulp
     and Paper Industry", Resources for the Future^ 1755
     Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D. C. 20036,
     January 1972.
26.  "Chesapeake Moves to Use of Oxygen in Effluent
     Treatment of BLO", Paper Trade Journal, July 22, 1974.
27.  lannazi, Fred P., "Greater Use of Secondary Fiber by
     Application of Dry Forming", Paper Trade Journal,
     October 25, 1971.
28-  Cost of clean Water, Volume III, Industrial Waste
     Profile No. 5_^ Petroleum Refining, Federal Water
     Pollution Control Administration, November 1967,
     Appendix A, Table 4.
29.  Petroleum Refining Industry; Technology and Costs of
     Wastewater Control, Engineering Science, Inc., 1975.
30.  "Development Document of Effluent Limitations
     Guidelines and New Source Performance Standards for the
     Petroleum Refining Point Source Category", U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, April 1974, p. 95.
31.  Klett, R. J., "Treat Sour Water for Profit",
     Hydrocarbon Processing, October 1972, pp. 97-99.
32.  Op.cit., Reference 3.
33.  Oil and Gas Journa1, March 22, 1974.
34.  "Water Use in Manufacturing: 1968," The 1967 Census of
     Manufacturers, Vol. I, Chapter 7.
35.  "Development Document for Effluent Limitation
     Guidelines and New Source Performance Standards for the
     Major Inorganic Products Segment of the Inorganic
     chemicals Manufacturing Point Source category", u. S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-440/1-74-007-a,
     March 1974.
36.  Ibid.
37.  "cleaner Units for TiO2 still Leave DuPont at Sea,"
     Chemical Week, January 1, 1975, pp.26-29.
                                                \
                           1-89

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38.  Op.cit., Reference 35.


39.  Ibid.


10.  "North American Chlor-Alkali Industry Plants and

     Production Data Book," The Chlorine institute, January
     1 37 r " •'


11.  Op.cit., Reference 35. (-38.1%)    (125.0%)
                          1-90

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                        Section Two

           THE ECONOMICS OF AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
Chapter 1
Summary


The purpose of setting the ambient and emission standards
associated with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970
(henceforth referred to as the clean Air Act) is to protect
human health and reduce or prevent the other damages
associated with polluted air.  To accomplish these goals,
the emissions released to the environment must be reduced
far below their 1971 levels.

The estimated net emissions of the five criteria air
pollutants in 1971, 1975, and 1985 are shown in Table 1.
Also shown in the table are the control efficiencies by
pollutant for the three years.  Note that particulates were
controlled to a large extent even in 1971; quite often these
controls existed for economic reasons.   That is, plants
recovered economically-valuable metals and materials from
the particulate wastes.
                            2-1

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                                Table 1.
                National Trend in  Emission Levels
Sources and  Pollutants
Net Emissions
(Mi I 1 ions  MT1
                            1971        1975

AlJ  Sources

  Particulates       .        31.6       16.2
  Sulfur Oxides              30.0       23.0
  Nitrogen Oxides            16-3"      17.6
  Hydrocarbons               14.3       10.3
  Carbon Monoxide        .    71.2       57.2

Industrial 8  Electric
  Generation

  Participates               31.0       15.5
  Sulfur Oxides              29.3       18.5
  Nitrogen Oxides             7.8        9.2
  Hydrocarbons                5.2        4.0
  Carbon Monoxide            10.4        6.3
                    1985
                      .0
                      .6
 7.
18.
24.8
 6.3
24.9
                      .9
                      .7
 5.
17.
14.2
 3.5
 6.5
                     Control
               ,      Efficiency (X)

                1971        1975
64.9        85.0
25.4        51.9
   0         1 .4
17.4        29.2
 9.9        16.8
65.5        85.7
25.8        59.4
 0.2         3.6
36.3        S3.5
43.0        66.1
  Emissions after  control devices have been installed.
  Percent  of unabated emissions that are eliminated by the control devices.
                                     2-2

-------
In order to bring about these reductions in air emissions,
businesses and consumers must make expenditures to install
pollution control devices, institute process changes switch
fuels, and operate and maintain these devices.  Governments
must allocate expenditures to regulate and monitor pollution
sources, control their own emissions, and perform research.

Table 2 shows the estimated total expenditures for air
pollution control brought about by the Clean Air Act during
the 1971-85 period.  Detailed information on standards and
compliance schedule assumptions are presented throughout the
remainder of this section of the report.


                          Table 2.
      Accumulated Estimated Air Pollution Expenditures

                          (In Billions of 1975 Dollars)

                          1971-1985         1976-1985

                          Total             Total
                          Resource          Resource
                          Costs             Costs

Industries                108.8              76.1
Transportation*           1U3.U             131.1
Government                  7.6               7.6

Totals                    259.8             214.8

Note:   Government costs for the period 1971-1975 were
        not estimates.

1 Mainly the costs for automobile emission controls that
  are paid for directly by the car owners.
The pattern that expenditures will take during the 1971-85
period depends not only on regulations, but also on the
pattern of compliance by businesses, automobile users, and
local governments.  If compliance with present Federal
regulations is assumed, the time path of expenditures during
the 1971-85 period is shown by the Legislated Timing line in
Figure 1; note the peaking of investment expenditures in
1975.
                            2-3

-------
                        Figure  1.
Air Pollution Abatement Investment Costs by  Industrial
         Sources other than Electric Utilities
                                                    LEGISLATED TIMING
                                                    LIKELY TIMING
                                                                     1985

-------
Surveys by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Department
of Commerce do not indicate such high past and planned
investment on the part of businesses during the 1971-75
period.  Therefore, some more extended pattern of
expenditures will probably occur.  The timing of air
pollution expenditures made by EPA and CEQ in the 1975
report entitled The Economic Impact of Pollution Control^
Macroeconomic and Industry Report's March 1975^ prepared by
Chase Econometric Associates, Inc., is assumed for this
report.  The dark lines on Figure 1 show the more probable
expenditure pattern.
                  GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
•fhe air pollution abatement expenditures related to P. L.
91-604 made by governments at all levels are shown in Table
3.  Federal expenditures include those for state and local
program assistance, research, abatement control, manpower
development, and control of pollution from Federal
facilities.  The future estimates for expenditures by state
and local governments include the functional areas of
enforcement, engineering services, technical services, and
management.
                            2-5

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                          Table 3.
       Government Spending for Air Pollution Control,
                          1976-85.
Year

1976
1976T
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
EPA

112
 28
147
152
152
152
152
152
152
152
152
(In  Billions  of 1975 Dollars)

 Other Federal     State Local
     186
      46
     209
     209
     209
     209
     209
     209
     209
     209
     209
120
 30
140
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
  Total

  418
  104
  496
  501
  510
  510
  510
  510
  510
  510
  510

5,089$R
                            2-6

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                TRANSPORTATION EXPENDITURES


Two major types of transportation control costs were
estimated:

  •  Costs needed to meet Federal emissions standards for
     autos, trucks, and aircraft.

  •  costs that residents of certain cities must pay to
     finance' programs that will reduce transportation-
     generated emissions to achieve Federal ambient
     standards.

In this report, the former costs are mobile source costs and
the latter are treated as Transportation Control Plan (TCP)
costs.  Table H shows these costs in summary fashion for the
appropriate years.  AS is evident from the table, the TCP
costs are very small in comparison with the total mobile
source controls.  The interrelationship between the two
control strategies is complex; as emissions from individual
vehicles are reduced, the relative impact of the
transportation controls is also reduced.
                            2-7

-------
                   v  *     Table 4.
               Transportation Control Costs*

               (In Billions of 1975 Dollars)
           Mobile Source Costs
Year Investment  OSM      Total
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
0.07
0.07
0.43
0.48
0.50
1.43
1.01
2.04
2.58
3.03
5.68
5.73
6.29
5.88
6.00
6.14
6.22
6.34
0.44
1.00
1.35
1.77
2.25
3.02
4.23
5.00
4.76
4.41
4.69
4.97
5.61
6. 17
6.71
7.23
7.81
8.31
 0.51
 1.07
 1.78
 2.25
 2.75
 4.45
 5.24
 7.04
 7.34
 7.44
10.37
10.70
11.90
12.05
12.71
13.37
14.03
14.65
1968-85
Totals 60.75

1976-85
Totals 53.89
        79.73   139.65
        60.67   114.56
TCP      Total Yearly
Costs    Costs

         0.51
         1.07
         1.78
         2.25
         2.75
         4.45
         5.24
         7.04
0.34     7.68
0.44     7.88
0.32    10.69
0.34    11.04
0.35    12.25
0.37    12.42
0.40    13.11
0.39    13.76
0.40    14.43
0.41    15.06
                  3.76   143.41
          3.76
                         118.32
»  Interest was not applied to investment.
                  INDUSTRIAL EXPENDITURES
Costs for industries to comply with Federal emission
standards (for new plants or facilities in specially-
designated industries)  and State Implementation Plans  (SIP)
required to meet Federal ambient air standards were
estimated for over 40 separate industries, such as Iron and
Steel manufacture. Petroleum Refining, and Kraft Paper
production.  Table 5 shows the estimated expenditures for
aggregations of these industrial sectors.
                            2-8

-------
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-------
              COMPARISON OF COST ESTIMATES TO
             THE LAST COST OF CLEAN AIR REPORT

               i
For those industries analyzed in both reports. Table 6
presents a comparison of cost estimates, in as nearly
comparable terms as possible.  The last cost of Clean Air
Report  (COCA) stated costs in fiscal years, whereas, this
report deals with years on a calendar basis.  The estimates
from COCA were inflated to 1975 dollars in this listing.
Several more industries have been included in this study,
and are therefore not listed in Table 6.
                           2-11

-------
            Table 6.
Cost of Air Pollution Abatement
    (Millions of 1975 Dollars)
         COCA  (FY71-FY79)
        vInvestment   OSM
 SEAS (1972-1979)
Investment   OSM
Aluminum
Primary
Secondary
Asbestos
Coal Cleaning
Copper- Primary
Dry Cleaning
Feed Mills
Grain Handling
Lead
Primary
secondary
Lime Manufacture
Natural Gas
Processing
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizer
Portland Cement
Pulp & Paper
Kraft
NSSC
Sewage Sludge
Incineration
Sulfuric Acid
Zinc
Primary
secondary
1,278.9
1,256.6
22.3
13.6
18.9
589.2
172.8
1,652.«*
1,182.0
45.8
32.8
13.0
73.2

108.0
42.5
23.2
532.8
312.8
280.8
32.0
75.2
488.6
41.4
38.9
2.5
280.5
276.6
3.9
2.8
1.8
75.6
-
88.8
24.0
4.2
2.9
1.3
7.0

20.0
10.4
8.2
95.8
69.2
58.8
10.4
8.7
51.5
4.0
3.5
0.5
2,070.3
2,040.2
30.1
15.0
27.3
1,177.5
130.3
1,804.4
2,134.6
46.7
42.1
4.6
320.0

135. 1
66.4
8.8
883.8
2,800.4
2,540.5
259.9
212.8
686.9
56.4
54.2
2.2
1,063.8
1,052.8
11.0
11.6
3.5
278.2
-
222.5
85.7
12.5
9.4
3. 1
24.1

62.2
34.9
1.2
293.6
988.9
869.9
118.9
25.9
150.3
29.2
27.7
1.5
             2-12

-------
As can be noted, many of the cost figures are higher in this
report, as compared to the last Cost of Clean Air Report.
Several factors account for this fact.  The costing
parameters for investment and O&M were inflated from a base
year to 1975 using factors on an industry-by-industry basis.
When these were used in.the SEAS model, resultant figures
were often higher than would have been the case using a data
base similar to the one used for the COCA report.  The
growth factors generated by the SEAS model were often
different than that assumed by COCA, and the time phasing
pattern of investments was adjusted in SEAS to be uniform
across the air abatement industries.

Aluminum figures are higher because of revised judgments of
industry capacity and control technology requirements,
combined with the SEAS generated growth forecasts.  Asbestos
investment figures are within the +30 percent assumed on the
cost functions.  Model plant definition and industry
forecasts played an important role in the Coal Cleaning
differences in coal figures.  The O8M figures assume a rapid
increase in power requirements with size,  copper estimates
are different due to the fact that previous cost figures
were developed on a piant-by-piant basis, while SEAS uses
model plants.  This combined with the fact that SEAS assumes
all growth in the industry has associated pollution control
costs yielded higher results.  There was also a re-
definition in the parts of the industry studied.

Dry Cleaning forecasts from SEAS assumed 55 percent using
synthetic solvents and the rest utilizing petroleum solvents
for existing plants.  New plants use only synthetic solvents
with adsorption units.  Several other costing assumptions
affected the forecast.  Feed Mills figures are different
largely due to growth assumptions of SEAS, as well as plant
size distribution parameters.  Cost curves were developed on
an industry-wide basis.

Grain Handling costs were based upon several assumptions,
since precise estimates of investment and operating costs
cannot yet be made, due to lack of data.  Capital cost
curves were derived from estimated throughputs of 1 million
and 15 million bushels per year.  The total capital cost is
the sum of the weighted capital costs for the existing
fabric filters, replacement of the cyclones, and
installation on the plants with no controls.

The overall Lead investment costs are very close for both
studies.  However, the breakout of primary and secondary
lead costs is different.  This is largely due to different
assumptions on growth patterns.
                           2-13

-------
Lime manufacture has substantially revised costs.  This is
largely attributable to higher costs associated with bigger
plants.  The industry trend has been towards consolidation.
The actual number of plants actually declined from 195 in
1970 to 186 in 1972, but.there is an increased growth in
production.  SEAS does not assume any plant closings after
the base year, and associates all growth with expansion in
the number of plants.  The combined effects have
substantially altered the forecast.

Natural Gas Processing plants have an investment figure
slightly higher in this report due to the combined effect of
model plant class definition with associated cost curve
estimates, and general growth patterns.

Nitric Acid cost curves have a high margin of error due to
lack of data availability.  For a particular model plant
class, the associated cost may be substantially at variance
with actual costs, due to technology assumptions, and the
extent of applicability of NOx abatement in the industries.
A true estimate can be achieved only on a plant-by-plant
basis.  For simplification, an assumption was made that
controls for NOx abatement are employed by 15 percent of the
industry capacity in all model plant categories.

Portland Cement costs are substantially higher in this
report, due in large part to production forecasts and
associated growth rates forecast by SEAS.  There are several
problems in estimating costs including a recent shift toward
increased size of operations through installation of larger
kilns.

COCA estimates for Pulp and Paper were extremely low.  This
report developed detailed model plant data and associated
cost curves for both Kraft Paper and NSSC, with individual
costs forecast by type of technology or process within the
entire system of production.  Control technologies were
assumed to be the Oregon-Washington SIP's.

Cost data for Sewage sludge Incineration forecasts was
updated from the last COCA report, and, as such,
substantially revised.  Assumptions concerning growth
patterns of the industry also affected forecasts.

Pollution control expenditures for the Sulfuric Acid
industry are higher in this study, due to the growth pattern
of demand for sulfuric acid.  This may not actually increase
the size of the industry, as SEAS would assume, because of
byproduct recovery from other industries.  The future growth
pattern of this industry is uncertain.
                           2-1U

-------
The zinc industry forecasts for the two reports are based
upon different segments of the industry, as well as the fact
that SEAS includes expansion costs in its estimate.
                           2-15

-------
Chapter 2
Benefits of Controlling Air Pollution
Contemporary damage estimates are based on the
interpretation of the results of numerous studies of varying
scope, methodology, and data quality.  Dose-response data
are most available for effects of sulfur oxides, oxidants,
and particulates in the damage categories of human health
and vegetation.  Because of the high cost of obtaining
statistically valid data on actual environmental damages,
much of current pollution effects information is based upon
extrapolation of data from controlled laboratory
experiments.

In combining estimates from different classes of damages,
care must be taken to minimize duplicate counts.  For
example, studies of the differences in residential property
values associated with differences in air pollution reflect
primarily the aesthetic and soiling effects rather than
health, materials, and vegetation effects.  This approach is
based on the argument that the aesthetic effects are
experienced directly in everyday life, whereas health
effects are mostly long-term, and are not distinguishable by
the general population from other causes of illness.
                       HEALTH DAMAGES

Nature and Effects of Air
Pollution Damage to Health

The major air pollutants that have been linked to health
damages are suspended particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, oxidants, and carbon monoxide.  The effects of these
pollutants are increased morbidity  (incidence and prevalence
of disease) and mortality.  The specific diseases that have
been associated with air pollution are bronchitis,
emphysema, asthma, respiratory infections, heart disease,
cancer of the respiratory and digestive tracts, and chronic
nephritis.  The quantitative relationships between these
diseases and air pollutants have been explored in a variety
of studies; other studies have examined the link between air
pollution and measures of illness or discomfort, such as
absenteeism, emergency ward visits, and automobile
accidents.

The most widely-cited studies of the health effects from air
pollution were performed by Lave and Seskin <1970, 1973) and
by EPA's Community Health and Environmental Surveillance
                           2-16

-------
System (CHESS).  Lave and Seskin analyzed the relationship
between mortality (in total and in 1t» disease categories) , a
variety of socioeconomic variables, and several indices of
suspended particulates and sulfates in the air.  Their
findings indicate that at least 9 percent of the 1960 death
rate was attributable to particulates and sulfates.  The
strongest effects were on bronchitis and lung cancer.

The CHESS studies (197U) gathered data on a number of
communities chosen to control socio-economic variables
related to disease.   A variety of indicators of illnesses
were examined for their relationship to the pollution
composite of sulfur dioxide, suspended sulfates, and total
suspended particulates.  The morbidity measures chosen as
most significant were: asthma attacks, restricted activity
days, and physician visits resulting from acute lower
respiratory disease; prevalence of chronic bronchitis; and
aggravation of cardiopulmonary symptoms in the elderly.

In a recent study, Sprey and Takacs (1974)  indicated the
likelihood that the health effects of air pollution may turn
out to be greater than expected from previous studies.  In
this study, a greater range of specific pollutants and
health effects was examined.  Strong correlations were found
between nitrogen dioxide and mortality from arteriosclerotic
and hypertensive heart disease, cancer of the lung, larynx,
and esophagus, and nephritis.  In addition, sulfates were
found to be associated with arteriosclerotic heart disease
and cancer of the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts.
These results suggest that the fraction of the death rate
associated with air pollution may be as high as 15 percent.


survey of Source Studies

The majority of health studies center around damages from
particulates and sulfur oxides.  Recently, oxidants and
carbon monoxide have been receiving increasing attention,
but the data base is still very small for most important
effects.  Very little work has been done on nitrogen dioxide
because of the difficulties in isolating the pollutant in
ambient situations and problems in defining valid
measurement techniques.  The more important studies are
listed in Table 1.
                           2-17

-------
                 Table  1.
Summary of Health Effects  Studies
1973
Study
CHESS

Lave and Seskin

Buechley
Finklea et_a1.

Bates
Gardner

Hazucha
Zelac et_al.
Shoettlin &  Landau  1961
CARS

Aronow and Isbel)    1973
Horwath et_a1.       1971
Beard and Wertheim  1967

Hexter & Goldsmith  1971
Shy et.at.          1970
Pub!ication
Date
1974
Local ion
5 Areas

117 SMSAs
Pollutants
Measured
oulfur dioxide.
sulfates
Particulates,
sulfates
New York-N.d.   Sulfur  dioxide
1975
1973
1971
1973
1971
1961
1975
Based on
various
studies
Laboratory
Laboratory
Laboratory
Laboratory
Los Angeles

Sutfates
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Oxidants
Oxidants
               Laboratory
               Laboratory
               Laboratory

               Los Angeles
               Chattanooga
               Carbon monoxide
               Carbon monoxide
               Carbon monoxide

               Carbon monoxide
               Nitrogen  dioxide
Effects
Increased incidence  of
and acute respiratory
Mortality
                                               Mortality
                                               Mortality and various  morbid)
                                               measures
                                               Changes in lung function
                                               Stability changes In  alveolar
                                               macrophages
                  Chromosomal  changes
                  Aggravation  of  asthma-
                  Changes iH respiratory
                  function and susceptibility
                  Earlier onset of angina pain
                  Time discrimination
                  deterioration
                  Mortali ty
                  Increased incidence of
                  respiratory  disease
                   2-18

-------
A recent survey of health damage studies was accomplished by
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering (197ft) in their report. Air Quality and
Automobile Emission Control (1974), which concentrates
largely on effects of carbon monoxide, with other pollutants
treated in slightly less detail.  Neuberger and Radford
(1974) cite more than 100 references on both human and
animal experiments for seven pollutants, including
formaldehyde and benzo-pyrene, in the context of identifying
threshold levels for health effects.  Source descriptions of
the older literature may be found in the NATO reports  (1971,
1972, 1973), which detail both toxicological and
epidemiological effects grouped by specific pollutants.
Waddell (1974)  has reviewed a number of primary source
studies in the process of deriving one chapter to economic
costs of diseases based on statistics from the U.S. Public
Health Service, and various reports and studies,  selected
source studies,on health effects are summarized below as an
indication of the large resource literature that exists.

The effects of sulfur oxides and particulates are often
difficult to separate due to collinearity of their
concentrations.  The basic work on a national scale has been
provided by the CHESS program.  Recently published results
(EPA, May 1974) provide data from five study areas selected
across the United States; they were: the Salt Lake Basin,
Rocky Mountains, Chicago-Northwest Indiana, New York, and
Cincinnati.  The basic study concentration was on acute and
chronic respiratory disease including asthma aggravation,
but some correlations with cardiopulmonary symptoms were
found in New York.

The published CHESS studies were carried out between 1967
and 1971.   In some cases, data from as early as 1940 on
population exposure of pollutant measurement were
extrapolated.  Current monitoring data were obtained from
pollutant-specific air quality sensors placed, in each
community.  Each study involved comparisons of several
communities within a geographic area.  The major conclusions
supported the correlation of suspended sulfate
concentrations with both increased incidence of asthma and
aggravation of cardiopulmonary disease.  However, recent
reviews of statistical validity of CHESS experimental data
indicate that these results are highly speculative.  (House
Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere, 1976)

A recent study by Finklea et al. (1975) has formulated "best
judgment"  dose-effe'ct functions for suspended sulfates.
Damage functions were derived ,from various studies on
mortality, aggravation of heart and lung disease in the
elderly, aggravation of asthma, excess acute lower
                           2-19

-------
respiratory disease in children, and excess chronic
respiratory disease.  All except mortality showed positive
responses below 15 micrcgrams per cubic meter (ug/m3) of
sulfate concentration; the threshold for mortality effects
determined by the study is approximately 25 ug/m3.  The
suspended sulfate concentrations are related to sulfur
dioxide concentrations by a linear equation, such that in
the case of morbidity, 320 ug/m3 of sulfur dioxide
corresponds to a 25 ug/m3 sulfate level.  Thus, effects are
shown to occur here even below the primary 24-hour sulfur
dioxide standard of 365 ug/m3.

Another investigation of air pollution effects in a large
number of areas has been performed by Lave and Seskin
(1973).  The relationship between mortality rates and
pollutant concentrations was investigated for 117 standard
metropolitan statistical areas.  Correlations with various
socioeconomic indices were investigated by multivariate
regression analysis, and sulfate levels were isolated as
having a significant association with mortality rates.  It
was determined that a 10 percent reduction in the level of
suspended particulates and sulfates would reduce the
mortality rate by 0.9- percent.

Buechley (1973) has investigated relationships between
sulfur dioxide and mortality in the New York-New Jersey
Metropolitan area.  The study utilizes statistical
techniques and regression analysis to investigate residual
mortality after elimination of meteorological and other
covariates.  Records over the period from 1960 to 1964 were
correlated with 11 levels of sulfur dioxide concentration,
indicating that a change in 24-hour levels between 140 and
500 ug/m3 corresponds to a change in residual mortality in
excess of 3 percent.

Results of a study on outpatient medical costs in the
Portland, Oregon, standard metropolitan statistical area
(SMSA) have been presented by Jaksch and Stoevener (1974).
The study utilized records and surveys developed by the
Kaiser-Permanente Medical Care Program to investigate the
impact of suspended particulate concentration from 60 to 80
ug/m3 would result in only a 3.5 cent increase in expense
per medical visit for respiratory diseases.  Recommendations
for future study include the determination of impact of
pollutants on the number of medical contacts.

The National Academy of Sciences report summarizes
investigations of acute and chronic respiratory illness in
high oxidant atmospheres, mostly in California, or in
laboratory experiments.  The report lists aggravation of
asthma, decreased cardiopulmonary reserve, increased
                           2-20

-------
susceptibility to acute respiratory disease, decrease in
pulmonary function, as well as changes in cell physiology,
as being prime documented effects of oxidants.
Toxicological studies with rabbits  (Gardner, 1972) have
shown that the stability of cells that prevent lung
infection (alveolar macrophages) is reduced at
concentrations of 196 ug/m3 (0.10 parts per million-ppm) for
2.5 hours.  Experiments with hamsters  (Zelac et al^, 1971)
have shown mutagenic changes  (chromosome breaks in white
blood cells)  when exposed to 392 ug/m3 (0.2C ppm) for 5
hours.  Studies with humans (Bates et al._ 1973, Hazucha et
al. 1973) have shown significant changes in pulmonary
function upon exposure to 1,170 ug/m3  (0.75 ppm) and 725
ug/m3 (0.37 ppm)  for 2 hours.   Asthma attack rate in
asthmatics has been found to increase significantly at daily
peak oxidant concentrations of tt90 ug/m3 (0.25 ppm)
(Shoettlin and Landau 1961).  These studies and others are
listed as being on indicative, but incomplete, data base for
photochemical oxidant effects on health.   The need for
further investigation in both the formulation of dose-
response relationships and the validity of the present
standards in the light of new evidence was strongly
recommended by the panel.

Current studies in health damages are being pursued under
the auspices of EPA's Office of Research and Development to
estimate the health costs associated with air pollution.
One of these studies recently completed by the California
Air Resources Board  (1975) has estimated "rough order" dose-
effect functions compiled by an expert panel using a Delphi
approach.  The panel generally agreed that patients
suffering from viral or bacterial illness would have
enhanced susceptibility to oxidant-induced abnormalities.
It was deduced that 90 percent of the infected individuals
would experience increased dyspnea at  1,560 ug/m3  (0.80 ppm)
and increased cough at 1,176 ug/m3  (0.60 ppm).  Ten percent
of this population would be incapacitated by superimposed
bacterial pneumonia  (influenza) or acute respiratory failure
(viral bronchitis) following exposure to 1,176 ug/m3  (0.60
ppm) of oxidant.

Carbon monoxide is the principal pollutant reviewed in the
National Academy of Sciences  (NAS) report.  Effects on
symptoms of cardiovascular disease, behavioral vigilance
effects, and effects during pregnancy are presented as the
major categories.  In an experiment in the Los Angeles area
(Aronow and Isbell 1973), a reduction in the time before
onset of pain from patients with angina pectoris was
observed after breathing carbon monoxide at 56 ug/m3  (50
ppm) for 2 hours.  In psychological experiments testing
response to environmental stimuli, some indications show
                           2-21

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that, reduction in vigilance and response can occur after
exposures of 56 ug/m3 (50 ppm) for 1.5 hours (Beard and
Wertheim 1967).  The investigations into effects of carbon
monoxide exposure on the developing fetus in women during
pregnancy have been primarily carried out on animals, and
the results are not clearly extrapolatable to humans.

Hexter and Goldsmith (1971) have carried out a regression
analysis of daily mortality data in Los Angeles county for
the period 1962-65; they considered temperature variations
and other cyclic factors as covariates to carbon monoxide
concentration.  The study indicates a significant
correlation of carbon monoxide with mortality, and concludes
that the estimated contribution of carbon monoxide between
concentrations of 23 ug/m3  (20.2 ppm)  and 8 ug/m3  (7.3 ppm)
is 11 deaths per day, other factors be,ing equal.

Nitrogen dioxide has been primarily associated with chronic
and acute respiratory disease.  The NAS study cites the work
of Shy et al.  (1970) in Chattanooga which tied acute
bronchitis rates in infants with  differential nitrogen
dioxide exposure.  Relative incidence of bronchitis was
observed to vary as much as 58 percent between low and high
exposures.  Questions about the validity of nitrogen dioxide
measurement methods and the presence of an influenza
epidemic have thrown some doubt on the validity of the
conclusions; the NAS panel recommends further investigations
in this area.
                     AESTHETIC DAMAGES

Nature and Effects of Air
Pollution Damage to Aesthetics

Air pollution reduces the pleasantness of peoples' daily
experiences and it can also cause unpleasant experiences
that lead to psychic damages.  Opinion surveys have shown
that the most noted aesthetic effects of air pollution are
material soiling and deterioration, irritation of eyes,
nose, and throat, ma1odors, and reduced visibility.  These
effects are primarily related to the aesthetic aspects of
experience rather than to direct physical, health, or
economic damages.  There is an area of overlap, however,
between aesthetic damages and materials damages because of
the aesthetic losses from soiling and deterioration.

The primary pollutant responsible for soiling is
particulates.  Irritation of eyes, nose, and throat is
caused primarily by photochemical oxidants.  Hydrogen
                           2-22

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sulfide, produced by anaerobic decomposition of wastes,  is a
frequent cause of malodor.  Reduced visibility is caused
primarily by particulates arid nitrogen dioxide.
                                                  i

Survey of Source Studies

A summary of the property value studies of primary interest
in developing national estimates of the aesthetic benefits
of air pollution control is shown in Table 2.  These studies
employed multiple regression techniques using a variety of
pollution level measures, other variables influencing
property values, and property values.  All study results
confirmed the hypothesis that pollution and property values
are inversely related, and they found statistically
significant coefficients expressing the relationships.
                           2-23

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                          Table 2.
             Summary of Property Value Studies
Investigator

Ridker-Henning

Zerbe
Date

1967

1969
Anderson-Crocker 1970
Crocker


Peckham


Spore


NAS and NAE


Nelson
1971


1970


1972


197H


1975
Location

St. Louis

Toronto
Hamilton

St. Louis


Kansas City


Washington,
D.C.

Chicago


Philadelphia


Pittsburgh


Boston and
Los Angeles

Washington,
D.C.
Pollution Measure

Sulfation1

Sulfation
Sulfation

Sulfation and
suspended particulate

Sulfation and
suspended particulate

Sulfation and
suspended particulate

Sulfur dioxide and
suspended particulate

Sulfation and
suspended particulate

Sulfation and
dustfall

Nitrogen oxides and
particulates

Oxidants
  A measure of 5(^3 deposition, probably also indicative of
  particulate levels.
The study of air quality and automobile emission control by
the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering provides
a more recent estimate of the air pollution damages related
to automobiles.  This study employed a general equilibrium
model of the property market for business, residential, and
agricultural land use.  Using data on Los Angeles and
Boston, the study estimated the national damages from
automobile emissions to be in the range of $1.5 to $5
billion, annually.

The bidding game study of pollution control benefits at the
Four Corners power plant added a new dimension to the
                           2-21

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estimation of aesthetic benefits.  A questionnaire was
administered to local residents and tourists after showing
them three sets of photographs, each set showing the
aesthetic aspects of different levels of pollution.  Bidding
games, using realistic payment mechanisms, were designed to
determine the maximum amounts that households would be
willing to pay for improvements shown in the photographs.
The payment mechanisms included sales taxes, electricity
bills, monthly payments, user fees, and compensation for
environmental damages (Randall 1974).
                     VEGETATION DAMAGES

The Nature and Effects of Air
Pollution Damage to Vegetation

Until recently, studies of the effects of air pollution on
vegetation were limited primarily to leaf damage caused by
acute exposures in areas adjoining urban centers.  However,
recent work has begun to change this picture, indicating
that vegetation damage is likely to be far more extensive
than had been expected.

Measurements of air pollution in rural areas in many states
have shown the presence of hazardous concentrations of
oxidants over large areas; this condition appears to be the
result of the processes of transport and chemical reaction
within plumes carried from urban areas.  Fluorides, nitrogen
dioxide, and sulfur dioxide, with its resultant acid rain,
have also been found to have impacts on rural vegetation.

In addition, a number of experimental techniques have been
developed to determine the impact of specific pollutants on
plant growth.  Studies using these techniques have shown
that chronic exposure to ozone affects the yield of many
crops to a far greater extend than that indicated by leaf
damage from acute exposures.  Experimental work still in the
exploratory stage suggests that oxidants, such as ozone, may
destroy chlorophyll and cause reductions in plant growth,
which are not manifested by visible injury.  Conversely, it
appears that acute exposure can cause leaf damage without
having a substantial effect on long-term plant growth.

A series of Swedish studies have indicated that the
potential effects of sulfur dioxide on vegetation extend far
beyond the emission sources and the affected vegetation in
the immediate area that is exposed to contact with sulfur
dioxide laden air.  It appears that sulfur dioxide that is
not washed out of the air by rainfall can be transported for


                           2-25

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distances up to 600 miles and it is exposed to chemical
reactions that produce sulfuric acid mist or acid rain.
Although acid rain is known to affect vegetation directly,
greater damage results in areas where the soils lack,
sufficient alkalinity to provide a buffer against the acid.
The leaching of nutrients by such acids reduces plant
growth.


Survey of source studies

Damage studies have been performed on a wide variety of
agronomic crops, citrus trees, lumber trees, and
ornamentals.  The largest segment of these studies relates
to damage from oxidants and sulfur dioxide, although
nitrogen oxides and fluorides have also been implicated; the
more important studies are listed in Table 3.
                           2-26

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                                  Table  3.
                Summary of Vegetation Damage studies
Study                    Date
Benedict et_a1_          1973
Heck et_al_              1966

Heck and Brandt          1974

Botkin et.al.             1971

Costonis and  Sinclair     1969

Mi Her- -                  1973
Thompson ct_a1.          1972

Davis         .           1972

Hill et_al_              1974

Temple                   1972
McCune                   1969
Local ion

Laboratory

Laboratory

Laboratory

New York

Cali fornia
Riverside
                 Pollutants Measured     Effects
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone

Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Herford.Arizona    Sulfur dioxide
Utah and
New Mexico
Laboratory
Various studies
Sulfur dioxide and
nitrogen dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
Fluorides
Increased damage
index
5% injury and
threshold levels
Reduction of
photosynthesis
Induced needle
bl ight
Yield reduction ir
citrus
Yield reduction Ir
soybeans
Foliar injury
Foliar Injury
Foliar Injury and
yield reduction'in
various species
                                    2-27

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Quantitative relationships between air pollution and
vegetation damage have been developed in only a few studies.
The NATO criteria documents  (November 1971, February 1973,
and 197ft) for these pollutants contain overall reviews of
the literature, as does the chapter by Heck and Brandt
(197ft) in Stern's air pollution volumes.  Jacobson and Hill
(197ft) contains several hundred primary source references,
although damage functions are not specifically addressed.
The National Academy of Sciences  (197ft)  publication is the
most complete source on fluorides.  A recent study for the
Environmental Protection Agency  (Benedict 1973) has
attempted to circumvent physical damage functions by
relating source emissions directly to economic losses; this
method is suspect, especially for oxidants, as indicated by
the recently-discovered, high rural oxidant levels shown in
the 1973 EPA Trends Report.

Heck and co-workers (1966) have provided a number of studies
quantifying ozone damages to various species,  in an
investigation of damages to one variety each of tobacco and
pinto beans, dose-effect functions of a sigmoidal nature
were derived.  For pinto beans, the injury index for 1 hour
of exposure to ozone rose from zero to 90 percent at 0.60
ppm concentration.  Chronic effects of ozone are also
documented by the data as changing by approximately 15
percent between exposure times of 1 hour and ft hours.  This
percentage held true at both high ozone levels and levels
near the primary standard of 0.08 ppm.  The chronic effects
on tobacco showed more than a 20 percent variation in injury
between 1 hour and ft hours of exposure.   Heck developed a
number of useful visual display techniques for damage
functions, illustrating both synergistic effects of
pollutants and acute versus chronic effects.  He used three-
dimensional graphs to simultaneously demonstrate variations
in pollutant concentration, exposure time, and resulting
damage.

Heck and Brandt (NATO 197ft) have shown oxidant damage at the
5 percent level for over 100 plant species on a scatter
diagram.  Damage envelopes are drawn at the 5 percent and
threshold levels for concentrations ranging from 0-2,160
ug/m3  (0-1.1 ppm)  and with time exposures from zero to 8
hours.  This effort is useful in providing ranges of damages
for a large number of unrelated higher plant species.

A number of studies are available on damages to species of
pine trees.  Botkin, et al.  (1971), Costonis and Sinclair,
(1969), and Miller  (1973) have investigated pine tree
damages.  The study by Miller is perhaps the most impressive
due to the high damage and death rates found for Ponderosa
Pine over a 2-year study period.  All of the trees were
                           2-28

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found to be injured to some degree, and 8.1 percent died
during the study. s Ambient oxidant readings in the area
exceeded 196 ug/m3 (0.10 ppm) for more than an average of 8
hours per day.

Thompson and co-workers  (1972) have performed several
studies of oxidant effects on citrus tree yields; both ozone
and peroxyacyl nitrates have been investigated.  Thompson et
al. (1972)  quantified differences in leaf drop, fruit set
and drops,  and fruit weight per tree on navel oranges.
Variance analysis was then performed on the data, and
confidence levels given for each value.  Addition of ambient
ozone to carbon-filtered air was observed to reduce fruit
yield by 35 percent.

Sulfur dioxide effects on soybeans have been investigated by
Davis  (1972).  A three-year study was conducted on U85
soybean plots.  Sulfur dioxide fumigations were carried out
at two growth stages the first two years and at seven stages
during the last year.  Good correlations were found between
leaf area destroyed and reduction of yield.  While sulfur
oxide exposure is not directly related to yield loss, the
study is important in indicating a possible general link
between leaf loss and yield loss resulting from sulfur oxide
exposures.

Hill et al.  (1974) have carried out one of the most massive
studies based on the number of species involved.  About 80
native desert species in Utah and New Mexico were examined
for sulfur and nitrogen dioxide effects under field
conditions.  Fumigation levels ranged from 1,<»30 ug/m3
 (O.Sppm) to 25,600 ug/m3  (10 ppm) sulfur dioxide
concentration; most species for which data was complete
showed a marked injury increase at either 6 or 10 ppm
concentration.  While these are much higher than normal
ambient levels, the study was intended to simulate effects
in a power plant plume.

Four ornamental species, Chinese elm, Norway maple, ginkgo,
and pin oak, were fumigated with sulfur dioxide in
controlled environmental chambers by Temple  (1972).  Three
dimensional dose-response curves similar to those of Heck
were constructed for each species.  Damages to foliage of up
to 95 percent were found at concentrations of 11 ug/m3  (4
ppm) after 6 hours of exposure.  This study fails to provide
data near ambient urban levels of 365 ug/m3  (0.14 ppm) or
less, but a small amount of damage was observed at 715 ug/m3
 (0.25 ppm)  over time periods of 30 days.

The effects of other pollutants are not well documented.
McCune  (1969) has done research on fluorides, but this
                           2-29

-------
pollutant is not widespread in ambient air.  Particulates
have been found to'show slight effects due to limitation of
photosynthesis.  Nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide have
shown no appreciable effects in the few studies that have
been performed.
                     MATERIALS DAMAGES

The Nature and Effects of Air
Pollution Damage to Materials

A wide variety of air pollutants cause damages to materials.
Sulfur dioxide corrodes metals, particulary galvanized
steel; it also attacks cotton textiles, finishes and
coatings, paints, building stone, electrical and electronic
equipment, paper, and leather.  Ozone has been shown to
shorten the life of rubber products, dyes, and paints.
Nitrogen oxides also cause fading of dyes and paints.
Particulates cause deterioration and soiling of stone, clay,
and glass structures and products.  These damaging effects
are experienced by society in a number of ways.  In many
cases, avoidance costs are additional because research and
development has been needed to develop new materials more
resistant to attack by air pollution.  These new materials
are sometimes more expensive than those more susceptible to
damage.  Society also bears the costs of cleaning and
repairs, including the replacement of failed or deteriorated
components and structures.  In some cases, the failure of a
material can cause damages.


Survey of Source Studies

Best documentation for damage to materials covers the
effects of sulfur dioxide, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide.
Particulates have been shown to have effects on soiling of
paints and building materials,  surveys of physical damage
functions may be found in Yocom and McCaldin (1968) and the
NATO criteria documents for particulates  (1971), sulfur
dioxide  (1971), and photochemical oxidants (1971).  Much of
the recent work in both ambient air and controlled chamber
studies has been pursued at EPAs National Environmental
Research Center in Triangle Park, N.C.  Economic estimates
based on physical damage studies have been made by Salmon
(1970), Gillette (1974), Haynie  (197U), and Waddell  (1974) .
The major damage studies are summarized in Table 4.
                           2-30

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Study
Upham
Haynie and
Upham
Summary of
Date
1965
1970
                          Table W.
                       Materials Damage Studies

                       Pollutants Measured

                       Sulfur dioxide

                       Sulfur dioxide
Beloin and
  Haynie
1973
Booz Allen    1970
  and Hamilton

Michelson and 1967
  Tourin
Upham
  et al.
197 H
Particulates
         Particulates
         Particulates
Nitrogen dioxide
Effects

Metal corrosion

Zinc corrosion
due to sulfur
dioxide and
humidity

Soiling


Soiling


Paint Soiling
Textile dye
fading
The most comprehensive survey of economic losses incurred
from air pollution damage to materials is the work of Salmon
(1970).  Thirty-two categories of materials were the basis
for calculating a total economic loss of $3.8 billion due to
air pollution.  The pollutants, in decreasing order of
economic importance, were found to be sulfur oxides, ozone,
nitrogen oxides, carbon dioxide and particulates.  Waddell
has used parts of this study, combined with in-depth studies
on specific categories, to arrive at an estimate for the
cost of materials losses in 1970.

Haynie (1974)  has assessed economic damages to metals,
paints, elastomers, electrical contacts and electronic
components at $2.7 billion per year.  The percentages of
total economic loss and available reference material are
given for metals, paints, textiles, elastomers, and
plastics.  Each area is also rated as to whether there is
strong or weak evidence of damage or only a suspected
relationship.   This approach clearly defines areas requiring
further investigation.                                    V;V

Economic damage due to sulfur dioxide has been estimated by
Gillette (197U) , both on a national and regional basis; the
estimate shows significant reductions in sulfur dioxide
levels nationwide between 1968 and 1972.  These calculations
                           2-31

-------
were carried out for various SMSAs using the air quality at
the center of the city as representative of the entire SMSA.
Reductions of damages due to sulfur dioxide were calculated
to decrease from $900 million to $75 million over the 5-year
period.  This loss was determined to occur mostly from
corrosion of painted or unpainted surfaces.

Physical damage studies pertaining to materials are not
available on a comprehensive basis, but studies that have
been done on specific materials are usually better
quantified than studies on health or vegetation damage due
to the lack of biological complications.  The studies
presented below are representative of the backup data which
support the economic damage functions.

Metal corrosion is the most economically significant
category.  A number of studies have been completed on metal
corrosion caused by sulfur dioxide.  One of the most
illustrative for widespread geographic interpretation was a
study by Upham  (1965) on metal corrosion in eight major
cities.  Values of corrosional weight loss between levels of
0.02 and 0.11 ppm annual sulfur dioxide concentration vary
from 4 to 12 grams, respectively.  Except for one city, the
data very nearly fits a straight line dose-response
function.  Corrosion of zinc has been investigated by Haynie
and Upham (1970); sulfur dioxide and relative humidity were
determined to act synergistically in the corrosion process.
Significant reductions in useful lifespan were predicted
even at sulfur dioxide concentrations as low as 130 ug/m3.

Good correlation of soiling of painted and unpainted
surfaces with particulate concentration has been found by
Beloin and Haynie  (1973) for a variety of substances.  Dose-
effect functions were developed by regression analysis and
particulates were found to account for up to 92 percent of
the variability of reflectance for certain substances.
Whether or not this physical change can be linked to changes
in maintenance frequency is not yet clear.  Studies by Booz
Allen and Hamilton  (1970) in the Philadelphia area
demonstrated no correlation with particulate concentration
between 50 and 150 ug/m', while a study by Michelson and
Tourin (1967) showed more than four times as much repainting
was done in areas with 250 ug/m3 concentration than in areas
with 50 ug/m' concentration.  However, the transgeographic
nature of the study leaves these results open to question.

Nitrogen dioxide has been only tentatively linked to
significant materials damage.  A recent study by Upham et
al.  (for EPA) has indicated that certain cellulosic fibers
may be affected by nitrogen dioxide.  Controlled test
chambers were employed to investigate both nitrogen dioxide
                           2-32

-------
and relative humidity effects.  Correlation of nitrogen
dioxide concentration with dye fading was found, as well as
evidence of a synergism with relative humidity.  This
correlation is supported somewhat by the cost study of
Salvin, which linked sulfur and nitrogen oxides and acids to
changes in textile fibers and dyes.
                    MORE ELUSIVE DAMAGES
As pointed out on repeated occasions, the current state-of-
the-art in benefit assessment does not permit full
estimation of all the damages associated with air pollution.
For example, in assessing the damages to human health, the
costs of lost leisure time and psychic costs are not
adequately reflected in estimates of the economic cost of
illness.  In other cases, the effects themselves have not
yet been adequately defined, as in the case with the risk of
large-scale ecological disruptions.  With some types of
damage, both the effects and the damage values elude
adequate definition.  Additional damage categories that have
been excluded from the discussion presented above include:

  •  Unquantified health effects
  •  Animal health
  •  Natural environment.
                           2-33

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  Pollution on Residential Property Values," U.S. Department
  of Transportation, 1975.

Neuberger, J. S. and Radford, E. P., "Review of Human Health
  Criteria for Ambient Air Quality Standards in Maryland,"
  Johns Hopkins University, August 1974.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Air Quality Criteria for
  Particulate Matter, November 1971.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Air Quality Criteria for
  Sulfur Oxides, November 1971.

North Atlantic  Treaty Organization, Air Quality Criteria
  for Carbon Monoxide, 1972.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Air Quality Criteria for
  Nitrogen Oxides, June 1973.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Air Quality Criteria for
  Photochemical Oxidants and Related Hydrocarbons, February
  1974.

Pearlman,  M. E. , et al., "Chronic Oxidant Exposure and
  Epidemic Influenza," Environmental Research. 4: pp. 129-
  140, April 1971.
                           2-37

-------
Peckham, B. W., "Air Pollution and Residential Property
  Values in Philadelphia," U.S. Department of Health,
  Education, and Welfare, 1970.

Randall, Allen, et al., "Benefits of Abating Aesthetic
  Environmental Damage," New Mexico State University, May
  1974.

Ridker, R. G., Economic Costs of Air Pollution, Frederick A.
  Praeger, New York, 1967.

Ridker, R. G. and Hehning, J., "The Determinants of
  Residential Property Values with Special Reference to Air
  Pollution," Review of Economics and Statistics^ 49: pp.
  246-257, 1967.

Rice, Dorothy P., "Estimating the Cost of Illness," U.S.
  Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, May 1966.

Salmon, R. L., "Systems Analysis of the Effects of Air
  Pollution on Materials," U.S. Department of Health,
  Education, and Welfare, 1970.

Salvin, V. S., "Survey and Economic Assessment of the
  Effects of Air Pollution on Textile Fibers and Dyes, « U.S.
  Department of Health, Education and Welfare, June 1970.

Schloettlin, C. E. and Landau, E., "Air Pollution and
  Asthmatic Attacks in the Los Angeles Area," Public Health
  Reports. 76: pp, 548-548, 1961.
               v.
Shy, C., et al., "The Chattanooga School Study: Effects of
  Community Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide.  Methods,
  Description of Pollutant Exposure, and Results of
  Ventilatory Function Testing," Journal Air Pollution
  Control ASSOC., 2_0<8) :539-545, August 1970.

Shy, C., et al., "The Chattanooga School Study: Effects of
  Community Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide. II. Incidence of
  Acute Respiratory Illness," Journa1 Air Pollution Control
  Assoc.j_ 20(9): pp. 582-588, September 1970.

Spence, J. W. and Haynie, F. H., "Paint Technology and Air
  Pollution: A Survey and Economic Assessment," U.S.
  Environmental Protection Agency, February 1972.

Spore, R. L., Property Value Differentials as a Measure of
  the Economic Costs of Air Pollution, Pennsylvania State
  University, 1972.
                           2-38

-------
Sprey, P. and Takacs, I., Enviro Control, Inc., "Study of
  Trends in National Air Pollution and Related Effects",
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, December  197ft.

Temple, Patrick J. "Dose Response of Urban Trees  to Sulfur
  Dioxide,11 Journal Air Pollution Control Assoc^t 22(1) : pp.
  271-274, April 1972.

Thompson, C. R., et al., "Effects of Ambient Levels of Ozone
  on Navel Oranges," Environmental Science and Technology^
  6: pp. 1013-1016, November 1972.

Upham, J. B., et al., "Fading of Selected Drapery Fabrics by
  Air Pollutants," U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency,
  1974.

Upham, J. B., Journal Air Pollution Control Assoc.,_ 15: p.
  265, 1965.

Waddell, T. E., The Economic Damages of Air Pollution, U.S.
  Environmental Protection Agency, May 1974.

Walker, J. T. and Barlow, J. C., "Response of Indicator
  Plants to Ozone Levels in Georgia," Phytopathology, 7ft (8) ,
  August, 1974.

Yocom, John E. and McCaldin, Roy O., "Effects of  Air
  Pollution on Materials and the Economy," In: Air
  Pollution, Stern, A. C.   (ed.) 2nd ed., Vol. 1, New York,
  Academic Press, 1968.

Zelac, R. E. , et al., "Ozone as a Mutagen", Envi ronmenta1
  Research. 4: pp. 262-282, 1971.

Zerbe, R. O., "The Economics of Air Pollution: A  Cost-
  Benefit Approach," Ontario Department of Public Health,
  1969.
                           2-39

-------
Chapter 3
The Costs of Controlling Air Pollution


                      1. INTRODUCTION
This 1975 estimation of the total incremental costs that
will be required to meet the provisions set forth by the
Clean Air Act is significantly different from the estimates
presented in the 1974 cost of Clean Air Report for the
following reasons:

  1. Costs for more industries have been included, providing
     a broader base than previous reports.

  2. Compliance dates for some standards are different.

  3. More detailed analysis has been performed on the
     Transportation Control Plans costs.

All major industrial pollutant sources which were included
in the 1974 report are reevaluated in this report.  In
addition, costs have been estimated for the following
industrial sources which have been added to make this report
more comprehensive:
     Clay construction products
     Coal gasification plants
     Paint manufacturers
     Printing establishments
     Surface coatings facilities
     Petrochemical industry
     Nonfertilizer phosphate reduction products
  1.
  2.
  3.
  4.
  5.
  6.
  7.
  8. Building and industrial incinerators.

This report assumes that the compliance date for some
scrubber installations in the electric utility plants will
be extended to as late as July 1, 1980.  This assumption
will postpone some of the investment cost for as much as
five years, and it will also reduce the annual cost of
operating pollution control equipment and the cash
requirements of the electric utilities sector to some extent
during the period 1975-80.

Air pollution control costs passed on to the purchasers of
light-duty motor vehicles have been calculated based upon
statutory emission control requirements and related
regulations.  The reduction in new car sales during the 1975
model year, and future estimates of reduced car sales
resulted in lower control costs than were previously
                           2-40

-------
estimated because control costs are calculated on the basis
of new car sales.

Estimates of the costs associated with State Transportation
Control Plans were made on a more detailed basis in this
report and exceed the $2 billion estimate reported in the
197* cost report.
              2.  GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES FOR
                   AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
The Clean Air Amendments of 1970 (P.L. 91-601)  impose
somewhat different requirements on governmental agencies
than on others affected by the legislation.,  Although there
will be some expenditures for abatement of pollution from
government owned facilities, the principal purposes of
expenditures in the government sector are for research,
monitoring, administration, and enforcement.  Research is
mainly supported by Federal funds, while state and local
funds, supplemented by Federal grants, are used primarily to
implement, operate, and maintain monitoring and enforcement
programs.

Detailed analyses are not presented here, since the main
purpose of this effort is to determine the magnitude of this
category of expenditures relative to other expenditures
estimated in the report.  The discussion concentrates on two
basic categories: program costs and costs for controlling
pollution at Federal facilities.


Program Costs

Table 2-1 shows projected governmental expenditures broken
down by EPA and subfederal categories.  A stable rate of
expenditure after FY 1978 is anticipated due to governmental
revenue constraints and competing social needs.
                           2-11

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Federal Program Costs

The Clean Air Act authorizes a national program of air
pollution research, regulation, and enforcement activities.
Under the Act, primary responsibility for the prevention and
control of air pollution rests with State and local
governments, with the program directed at the Federal level
by EPA.  EPA's role is to conduct research and development
programs, set national environmental goals, ensure that
adequate standards and regulations are established to meet
these goals, provide assistance to the States, and ensure
that the standards and regulations are effectively enforced.

The environmental standards are the National Ambient Air
Quality Standards (NAAQS).  These standards set forth the
allowable concentration in air of pollutants which affect
human health and public welfare.  The health and other
effects of pollutants are delineated in criteria documents
which are the basis for the standards.  National Ambient Air
Quality Standards have been set for total suspended
particulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon
monoxide, photochemical oxidants, and hydrocarbons.  Two
types of standards are set: primary standards to protect
human health and secondary standards to protect the public
welfare  (prevention of damage to property, animals,
vegetation, crops, visibility, etc.).  Controlling emissions
to meet standards is handled through two major types of
activities:  (1) States carry out State implementation plans
(SIPs) which control pollution primarily by preceiving
specific emission limitations or control actions for types
of polluters and  (2) EPA controls emissions from new motor
vehicles and selected stationary sources.

Program emphasis will continue to be on the attainment and
maintenance of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
Because the implementation of control actions is basically
the responsibility of the State and local governments, it
will be required that they take on increased
responsibilities for air pollution control if the standards
are to be attained, particularly if automotive-related
pollutants are to be controlled.  The State control plans
incorporate controls for automotive related pollutants since
reductions achieved as a result of the Federal motor vehicle
control program are not sufficient to attain the standards
for such pollutants in many areas.  The Federal program
places primary emphasis on increasing State and local
control agencies1 ability to control air pollution.

In order to attain the standards, efforts are to concentrate
on the implementation of State implementation plans, their
reassessment, and revision if indicated.  For maintenance of
                           2-U3

-------
the standards, many SIPs will have to be revised to include
the controls required to assure that the ambient air quality
standards are not violated in the future.  The governors of
15 states have been formally notified by EPA Regional
Administrators that the SIPs for their states must be
revised in order to attain and maintain the NAAQS,  Plan
revisions are necessary in 31 States for particulate matter;
12 States for sulfur dioxide; 22 States for carbon monoxide;
29 States for photochemical oxidants; and 3 States for
nitrogen dioxide.

The nature and magnitude of the problems associated with
attainment and maintenance of the NAAQS varies with the
specific pollutant involved.  Federal programs will be aimed
at the formulation of methodologies for developing control
strategies and the development of control systems as well as
to the support of State and local programs.  Maintenance of
the standards in the long term will also be facilitated by
Federal programs that lead to the minimization of emissions
from new sources  (i.e., new motor vehicle emission standards
and standards of performance for new stationary sources) and
the assurance of continued low emissions performance for
these sources during their useful lives.

Program expenditures by the Agency are expected to remain
level for the next several years, with the states gradually
assuming greater responsibility for implementation of the
various provisions of the Act.  Table 2-2 shows projections
for the three major appropriations categories.
                           2-44

-------
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Expenditures by Other Federal Agencies

The following information is excerpted and adapted from:
Office of Management and Budget, "Special Analyses: Budget
of the United States Government", USGPO 1976,

Although covering a wide range of activities. Federal
environmental programs are classified in three broad
categories: pollution control and abatement; understanding,
describing and predicting the environment, and environmental
protection and enhancement activities.  It is difficult to
attribute non-EPA Federal expenditures to specific pollution
control legislation in many cases, but an approximation of
P.L. 91-601 related expenditures is given by the air quality
expenditures in the Pollution Control and Abatement
category.  Principal activities in this category include
actions necessary to reduce pollution from Federal
facilities; the establishment and enforcement of standards;
research and development; and the identification of
pollutants, their sources, and their impact on health.  Non-
EPA air quality expenditures by the Federal government in
FY1976, the transition quarter and FY1977 are 186, <>6 and
209 million dollars, respectively.

Since Federal spending is strongly influenced by policy and
competing social needs, forecasting is always problematical.
The best estimate currently is that such expenditures will
remain stable over the next several years, with only minor
growth or decline.  If non-EPA Federal outlays in this
category were to be held constant at the FY1977 level, total
decade expenditures would be about 2.1 billion dollars.
While this is a large amount on an absolute basis, it is
relatively small compared to total expenses in the nation
for P.L. 91-601*.
      3.  CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY SOURCES
For the purposes of this report, stationary sources are
considered to include industrial sources, utilities, and
industrial/commercial heating and incineration which are
treated as industries.  Dry cleaning establishments, paint
shops, and other small scale activities are also considered
as industries.

Service stations are considered under the Mobile Source
section because they are controlled for vapor emissions
under Transportation Control Plans.
                           2-U6

-------
Classification of Industrial sources

10 order to calculate air pollution control costs,
industries are represented by "segments" and "model plants".

A "segment" is all or a portion of an industry that has:  (1)
the same production process, (2) the same air pollution
control technology, and (3)  the same pollution control
standard.  For example, the Kraft Paper industry is dealt
with for purposes of air pollution control costs in terms of
10 different segments.  These segments are defined in Table
3-1.
                           2-H7

-------
                         Table 3-1.
          Kraft Paper Industry Segment Definitions
Process

1.   Power Boiler


2.   Boiler
3.   Recovery
     Furnace
     Recovery
     Furnace
     Recovery
     Furnace
6.   Recovery
     Furnace
7.   Smelting Tank
8.   Lime Kiln
9.   Stock Washer
10.  Evaporator
Control
Technology

Electrostatic
Precipitators

Double Alkali
Scrubber

Electrostatic
Precipitators


Venturi Scrubber
Recovery
Furnace Replace-
ment

BLO
Orifice Scrubber
Venturi Scrubber
Incinerate in
Recovery Furnace
Incinerate in
Lime Kiln
Pollution
Standard

Federal
Particulates

Federal sulfur
Dioxide

Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates

Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates

Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur

Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur

Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates

Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates

Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur

Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur
                           2-48

-------
"Model plants" are the building blocks of a segment; that
is, a segment capacity for production is comprised of a
number of model plants that are classified as either
"existing" or "new" (new facilities are those constructed
after the date when the New Source Performance Standards are
in effect for that industry),  For example. Segment 7 for
Kraft Paper (Smelting Tanks)  has three model plant sizes
(454, 907, and 1,361 units of production per day).  There
are existing facilities in all three sizes, but during the
1975-85 period, new facilities are expected to be built in
only the middle size class.  Table 3-2 lists the industries
for which air costs are calculated, the number of segments
for those industries, and the Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) industry code as defined by the office
of Management and Budget (OMB).
                           2-49

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                         Table  3-2.
           Segments for Industrial Cost Analysis
Name
Steelmaking
Steel Foundries
Ferroalloy
Steel-Coke
Steel-Scintering
Solid Waste Disposal
sludge  Incineration
NSSC Paper
Primary Zinc
Primary Lead
Secondary Zinc
secondary Aluminum
Industrial Heating
Commercial Heating
Crude Oil Storage
Gasoline Storage
Jet Fuel Storage
Refining
Petroleum Cost Cracking
Primary Aluminum
Natural Gas
Coal Cleaning
Iron Foundries
Dry Cleaning
Grain Handling
Feed Mills
Asphalt
Cement
.Sulfuric Acid
Nitric  Acid
Phosphate Fertilizer
Kraft Paper
Lime
Primary Copper
secondary Lead
Secondary Brass
Asbestos
Clay Construction Products

Coal Gasification
Petrochemicals
Existing
Segments

   22
   1
   5
   3
   7
   6
   1
   2
   1
   1
   1
   1
   2
   3
   2
   1
   5
   3
   1
   1
   2
   4
   2
   1
   4
   10
   3
   3
   1
   2
   6
   3

   2
   7
SIC (1972
Definition)
331 (pt)
3324.5
3313
331 (pt)
331 (pt)
4953
4953
2611272
33331
33321
33414
33417.8
N/A
N/A
291X
291X
291X
29 1X
29 1X
33347
1321
1211
3321.2
7215.6
5153
2047.8
29510
3241
28193
2873
2874
2611231
3274
33311
33412
3362
3292
1452.3.
3295
N/A
2869
(pt),  12136
   35.39.43
  4.5,6.7.8.9;
                            2-50

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                   Table 3.2.  (Continued)
           Segments for Industrial Cost Analysis

                             Existing    SIC  {1972
Name                         Segments    Definition)
Nonfertilizer Phosphate         3        2819
Mercury Cell Chlor Alcali       2        2812
Commercial and Industrial       2        N/A
  Building Incineration
Surface Coatings                H        3711.12.13.1».15?
                                         3631.32.33.3H;3H79;
                                         7531.35
Paint Manufacture               2        2851
Painting                        1        2751.52.53.54;
                                         2711. 21. 31
The cost of controlling air pollution from industrial
sources is estimated for model plants.  All existing and new
capacity is expressed in terms of the model plants.  For
example, the smallest model plant in Segment 7 for Kraft
Paper has to spend $51,000 for capital equipment to control
particulates.  In summary, this model plant is defined by:

     Industry - Kraft
     Production process - Smelt Tank
     Control technology - Orifice Scrubber
     Pollution standard - Washington-Oregon Particulates
     Model plant capacity - i»5U Units
     Type of facility - Existing.


Costs Related to Required
Reduction in Air Emissions

The control costs that industries incur are directly, but
usually not linearly, related to the amount of reduction in
the emissions required.  Since the purpose of this section
is to estimate the control costs resulting from provisions
of the Clean Air Act, it is necessary to factor out the
levels of control that existed in industries prior to the
Clean Air Act.  Controls could have existed prior to 1971
because it was economically worthwhile to recover byproducts
or because there were prior emission regulations (either
self-imposed or government-generated).
                           2-51

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REDUCTIONS IN EMISSIONS PRIOR
TO THE CLEAN AIR ACT

Byproduct Recovery. In some industries, it is common to
control particulate or sulfur oxides emissions in order to
recover materials in these gases that have economic value.
Where this was common practice prior to 1971, the associated
control costs are not calculated in this report.  Some
byproduct recovery values are, however, calculated in this
report,  such values are calculated when the controls were
prompted by State Implementation Plans  (SIP) that responded
to requirements of the Clean Air Act.  For example,
petroleum storage tanks are controlled by SIP's to reduce
the hydrocarbon emissions.  In most cases, the value of the
fuel recovered by the control devices placed on these
storage tanks is greater than the cost of the control
devices.  Thus, the control saves industry money rather than
causing a net cost to the industry.

Average Industrial Controls Prior to the Clean Air Act. An
attempt has been made to estimate the average level of
control in each industry prior to the date that each
industry was impacted by the provisions of the Clean Air
Act.  For new facilities in a specific industry built during
the late 1970»s and early 1980*s, it is assumed that they
will have installed pollution equipment equal to the average
practice that existed prior to the clean Air Act.
Therefore, costs are estimated for the incremental amount of
pollution equipment needed to meet the current emission
standards.
REDUCTIONS IN AIR EMISSIONS REQUIRED
BY THE CLEAN AIR ACT

The Clean Air Act affects pollution control through:  (1)
ambient standards for six pollutants [particulates, sulfur
oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides  (NOx), hydrocarbons  (HC),
oxidants, and carbon monoxide  (CO)"]» (2) New Source
Performance Standards (NSPS) which are emission standards,
(3) emission standards for three hazardous pollutants
(mercury, asbestos, and beryllium),  (H) control of fuel
additives (e.g., lead), (5) control of non-criteria, non-
hazardous pollutants, (6)  aircraft standards, and  (7) "no
significant deterioration" requirements.

Federal Ambient Standards and State Implementation Plans. In
order to meet the ambient standards set by EPA, states must
devise plans that take into account the unique
characteristics of metropolitan and other local areas with
regard to the size and mix of pollutant sources.
                           2-52

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meteorology, terrain, etc.  State Implementation Plans
control pollution from industrial sources based upon local
conditions.  For example, Oregon and Washington place
stringent controls on existing Kraft pulp mills, whereas
many states have no existing Kraft pulp mills, and therefore
no present controls.  For some industries, such as
Steelmaking, some states have more stringent emission
controls than others.  In fact, in this report, steel mills
are classified into four categories based upon the
stringency of various state air emission controls.

Effectively, the SIP's translate the Federal ambient air
standards into sets of emission standards for particulates,
sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbon, and carbon
monoxide.

Some of these types of state differences in controlling
existing facilities are taken into account in this report.
with regard to new plants, there is much less state
differentiation because there is a set of Federal controls
for new facilities called New source Performance Standards
(NSPS).

New source Performance Standards. New Source Performance
Standards have been promulgated for only a portion of the
industries that will eventually be covered; Table 3-3 shows
the industries that are presently covered under NSPS and the
associated emission factors.  The sources for the data in
this table are references 1 through 7 which are contained in
the listing at the end of Table 3-3.  Industries for which
NSPS are not yet promulgated are assumed to have the same
cost functions as these subject to SIP regulations.
                           2-53

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References for Table 3-3.
                  i
1.   Background Information for Proposed New Source
     Performance Standards:  Steam Generators, Incinerators,
     Portland Cement Plants, Nitric Acid Plants, Sulfuric
     Acid Plants.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Research Triangle Park, North Caroline.  APTD-0711.  50
     p., August 1971.

2.   Background Information for Proposed New source
     Performance Standards: Asphalt Concrete Plants,
     Petroleum Refineries, storage Vessels, Secondary Lead
     Smelters and Refineries, Brass or Bronze Ingot
     Production Plants, Iron and Steel Plants, Sewage
     Treatment Plants.  U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.  APTD-
     1352a.   61 p., June 1973.

3.   Background Information for Standards of Performance:
     Primary Aluminum Industry Volume 1: Proposed Standards.
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
     Park, North Carolina.  450/2-74-020a.  99 p., October
     1974.

4.   Background Information for Standards of Performance:
     Electric Arc Furnaces in the Steel Industry Volume 1:
     Proposed Standards.  U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.  450/2-
     74~017a.  155p., October 1974.

5.   Background Information for Standards of Performance:
     Electric Submerged Arc Furnaces for Production of
     Ferroalloys Volume 1: Proposed Standards.  U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
     Park, North Carolina.  450/2-74-018a.  147 p., October
     1974.

6.   Background Information for Standards of Performance:
     Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Volume 1: Proposed
     .Standards.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.  450/2-74-019a.
     119 p., October 1974.

7.   Background Information for Standards of Performance:
     Coal Preparation Plants Volume 1: Proposed Standards.
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
     Park, North Carolina.  450/2-74-021a.  40 p., October
     1974.
                           2-57

-------
Hazardous Air Substances. The costs of control (as measured
by either the cumulative investment over a ten-year period
or the annual costs) are relatively small for those
industries controlling hazardous substances in comparison to
the control costs for other industries.  The industries
affected by hazardous substances regulations to date are:

  •  Chlor-Alkali and Primary Mercury for mercury emissions

  •  The Asbestos industry and construction and demolition
     operations for asbestos emissions

  •  Primary Beryllium for beryllium emissions,

Methods for Controlling Air Emissions from Stationary
Sources. The most common pollutants that industrial sources
have to control are particulates and sulfur oxides.  Of the
thirty-nine industries evaluated in this report, twenty-two
must control for particulates and nine must control for
sulfur oxides.

  1. Particulate Control Devices. In simplest terms,
particulates are controlled by using electrostatic
precipitators  (ESP), scrubbers, or filters.  The scrubbers
are usually a wet process that generates a water effluent
problem in the water medium.  ESP and filters are usually
dry processes insofar as the extraction of particulates from
the air is concerned, but plants often choose to dispose of
the extracted particulates via a water stream.  When this is
done, a water problem is also created,  several of these
intermedia impacts  are dealt with in this report.

Plants often put several control devices in series or use
various types of control devices within the category of
scrubber.  For example, a segment of the Primary Aluminum
industry employs a  primary collector  (hoods and ducts), a
wet ESP, and spray  tower  (scrubber) in series.  Different
segments of the Kraft pulp mill industry employ cyclonic
scrubbers, Venturi  scrubbers, and orifice scrubbers.  The
individual industry descriptions will explain the control
techniques assumed  in each case.  These examples are
provided here to highlight the intermedia problem and to
place the control devices into some common categories that
are easy to understand.

Electrostatic precipitators are employed for particulates
that can be ionized and separated from a gas stream by
electrical means.   Scrubbers usually employ water to  "wash"
particles out of a  gas stream.  Filters are used to remove
particles that can  be trapped as the gas stream moves
through a fabric media.  Filters are gaining in application
                           2-58

-------
because the new fiberglass filters can be employed at very
high temperatures  (up to 550°F).

There are a group of miscellaneous control devices that also
can be used for particulate reductions.  These include
afterburners, hoods, and building evacuation  (where the
building is sealed tight and workspace emissions are
collected at vented locations).

  2. Sulfur Oxide Control Devices. The most common control
devices for sulfur oxides are  scrubbers, absorbers, and acid
plants.  The scrubbers are .of the amine, lime, limestone, or
lime/limestone type,  often an acid plant  (a control
technique that recovers sulfuric acid from the sulfur gas)
such as a Claus plant is used  in conjunction with a scrubber
to obtain a valuable byproduct that can be sold.  Claus
recovery plants must themselves be controlled with a tail-
gas treatment facility.

  3. Nitrogen Oxide Control Devices. The only industry for
which nitrogen oxide controls  are explicitly considered in
this report is the Nitric Acid industry.  Nitric acid plants
reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by employing catalytic
reduction devices.  In this method of control, the gas is
treated with a catalytic reduction technique that uses
natural gas, ammonia, or hydrogen,  use of natural gas
dominates because of its lower costs and proven ability.
However, the increasing shortages of natural gas could alter
its use in the future.

  4. Hydrocarbon Control Devices. Petroleum, Dry Cleaning,
Paint Manufacture, Surface Coatings, and Printing are
industries that must control hydrocarbon emissions.
Petroleum storage controls tend to be handled by installing
floating roofs on the storage  tanks; this is almost always a
profitable byproduct recovery  process.  Dry cleaning
emissions will be reduced by switching material reports.
Printing emissions are reduced by using thermal
incinerators.

  5. Carbon Monoxide Control Devices. Carbon monoxide
emission controls are considered only for the Petroleum
Industry.  Carbon monoxide is  burned along with hydrocarbons
to form less noxious gases.  This burning takes place in
waste-heat boilers, and the energy generated in this burning
is often used to economic advantage by the industry.  In
some existing refineries, the  additional steam generated by
these boilers cannot be used,  but new plants can be designed
to take advantage of this means of reducing their total
energy requirement.
                           2-59

-------
  6. Pretreatment Options. Quite often, it is very efficient
to reduce the emissions from a plant by changing fuels or
making some kind of process change.  Two cases where this is
often practiced are the Steam Electric Power Plants and Dry
Cleaning.  As the summaries for these two industries show,
assumptions are made about the amount of fuel switching and
solvent fluid used, respectively.

Industrial Descriptions and Assumptions. The industry
summaries and assumptions are presented in the sequence
listed in Table 3-*, and they describe each source in terms
of the industry characteristics, emissions, control
technology, and costs of control.
                           2-60

-------
                    Table  3-4.
   Industrial Sector Coverage  for  Air Pollution
      Control Analysis of  Stationary Sources
Sequence    Industry
   1        Coal Cleaning
   2        Coal Gasification
   3        Natural Gas Processing
   «t        Feed Mills
   5        Kraft Pulp Mills
   6        NSSC Pulp Mills
   7        Printing
   8        Mercury'cell Chlor-Alkali
   9        Nitric Acid
  10        Paint Manufacture
  11        Phosphate Fertilizer
  12        Nonfertilizer  Phosphate
  13        Sulfuric Acid
  14        Petrochemicals
  15        Petroleum
  16        Ferroalloy
  17        iron and Steel
  18        Iron Foundries
  19        Steel Foundries
  20        Primary Aluminum
  21        Secondary Aluminum
  22        Primary Copper
  23        Secondary Brass and Bronze
  2U        primary Lead
  25        Secondary Lead
  26        Primary Zinc
  27        Secondary Zinc
  28        Asbestos
  29        Asphalt Concrete
  30        Cement
  31        Lime Manufacture
  32        Clay Construction  Products
  33        Surface Coatings
  31        Steam Electric Power  Plants
  35        Solid Waste Disposal
  36        Sewage Sludge  Incineration
  37        Grain Milling
  38        Dry Cleaning
  39        Industrial and Commercial Heating
Summary
Page No.
  2-62
  2-68
  2-73
  2-76
  2-79
  2-86
  2-89
  2-92
  2-96
  2-99
  2-102
  2-107
  2-111
  2-114
  2-120
  2-130
  2-133
  2-143
  2-146
  2-149
  2-153
  2-156
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  2rl64
  2-167
  2-170
  2-174
  2-178
  2-181
  2-184
  2-188
  2-191
  2-194
  2-199
  2-210
  2-216
  2-219
  2-223
  2-226
                      2-61

-------
COAL CLEANING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. In 1972, which is
the last year that Bureau of Mines data was available, the
total production of bituminous and lignite coal in the
United States was about 510 million metric tons.  The annual
production rate has gone both up and down in recent years,
but the net change from 1968 to 1972 was an increase of
about 9 percent.  The 1972 production came from 1,879 mines.
About 51 percent of the production came from underground
mines, 16 percent from strip mines, and 3 percent from auger
mines.  The trend over recent years has been toward fewer
mines and toward a greater dependence on strip mining.  The
number of underground mines has been decreasing, largely
because of the strict regulations of the 1969 Coal Mine
Health and Safety Act.

In the mining of coal, various inert materials and other
impurities, such as pyritic sulfur, are recovered along with
the coal.  If these materials are present in sufficient
quantity, they must be removed by coal cleaning.  This
cleaning process increases the heating value of the coal and
reduces the amount of pollutants emitted when the coal is
burned.

In strip mining where the coal seams are uncovered, the
amount of impurities in the coal is relatively low, and only
about 32 percent of the coal mined in this manner requires
cleaning.  In underground mining, the cutting and loading
methods used lead to somewhat greater amounts of impurities,
and about 67 percent of the coal mined in this manner
requires cleaning.  Overall, about 19 percent of the coal
mined in this country is mechanically cleaned.  In 1972,
about 355 million metric tons of raw coal were cleaned,
yielding about 266 million metric tons of cleaned coal.  The
amount of coal cleaning showed a net decrease of about 20
percent from 1968 to 1972; this decrease resulted from the
increased use of strip mining  (which requires less
cleaning), and the increased shipments to electric
utilities, who usually do not require cleaning.  However,
the amount of coal cleaning increased by about 8 percent
between 1971 and 1972.

Mechanical coal cleaning involves methods similar to those
used in the ore-dressing industries.  About 96 percent of
coal cleaning is done by wet-processing methods, with
pneumatic or air cleaning methods being used for the other  1
percent.  The dust abatement regulations of the Occupational
Health and safety Act will eventually cause a phasing out of
pneumatic cleaning over the next few years.
                           2-62

-------
About 18 percent of the coal which is cleaned by wet-
processing methods is thermally-dried before being loaded.
Drying is done to avoid freezing problems, to facilitate
handling, to improve quality, or to decrease transportation
costs.  In 1972, there were 112 thermal drying plants in
this country which processed about 48 million metric tons of
coal.  This represents an increase of about 11 percent from
the previous year.  During the same year the total number of
coal cleaning plants decreased from 411 to 408, but the
number of coal cleaning plants with driers increased from
103 to 112.  In such drying plants, a significant source of
pollution is the particulate emissions from the driers.  To
meet the new regulations on particulate emissions, venturi
scrubbers  (or the equivalent) must be installed.

The present turmoil in the related areas of energy supply
and environmental protection makes the prediction of future
growth trends in the coal industry rather uncertain.  The
basic factor inhibiting the rapid growth of coal production
is the high sulfur content of most readily-available Eastern
coals.  The Western portion of the nation has large reserves
of low sulfur coal but the high cost of transporting this
coal to the Midwestern and Eastern markets has, at least
until recently, precluded large scale use of this source.
The alternative to the use of low sulfur coal is flue gas
desulfurization technology, and an intensive effort is
currently being directed in this area.  If the regulations
on sulfur dioxide emissions from electrical power plants are
adhered to and flue gas desulfurization technology lags, a
slowing in the growth rate of coal could result.  On the
other hand, restrictions on imports of petroleum could
accelerate the demand for coal.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. The emissions of primary
concern from coal cleaning plants are the particulates
resulting from drying operations.  The available data
indicate that in 1971, only 1 percent of the coal drying
capacity was equipped with devices capable of removing at
least 99 percent of the particulate matter in the effluent
gas.  Another 87 percent of the capacity was equipped with
low-energy cyclones which remove only about 90 percent of
the particulate matter.  In order to meet the new
regulations, these cyclones will have to be replaced with
the high-energy venturi scrubbers.

The uncontrolled emission levels were calculated from the
emission factors for coal driers.  The emission factors
given by the EPA are 5.9 kilograms of particulates per
metric ton of coal dried for fluidized bed driers and 2.3
kilogram per metric ton for flash driers.  Since the Bureau
of Mines data indicate that 6ft percent of the coal driers
                           2-63

-------
                                                                :>-*•":«••• ••
are fluidized bed units and the rest are various designs
which should have emissions similar to flash driers, a
weighted average emission factor of 1.6 kilogram of
particulates per metric ton of dried coal was calculated.

The emissions at the 1972 control level are based on 90
percent particulate removal for 87 percent of the
throughput, and 99.5 percent particulate removal for 1
percent of the throughput.  In the state-by-state breakdown,
this value has little meaning for the states with a small
number of plants because in these cases, the extent of
control may vary considerably from the national average
values used in the calculations.

The "allowable" emissions are the values that apply if all
throughput existing before January 1, 1974, just meets the
appropriate State Implementation Plan level, and all
throughput added after that date just meets the Federal New
Source standard.  The calculation of the allowable emissions
for the plants existing in 1972 is detailed in Table 3-1-1.
These emissions were adjusted to 1971 by adding t percent
per year, which is equivalent to assuming that the growth in
throughput over these two years occurred through new plants
having the same size distribution as the existing plants.
Again, this could be considerably in error for some states
but should be quite good for the national total.
                            2-6U

-------
                        Table 3-1-1.

   Coal Cleaning Industry Allowable Particulate Emissions

                         1972 Data
State
No.
of
Plants
Average Drying
Rate
Alabama
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia

Totals
  1
  1
  9
  1
 15
  2
  4
 13
  2
 10
112
1,000
metric
ton/yr

1,137
  294
  722
1,213
  256
   74
  289
  388
  327
  408
  448
kkg/hr

 129.8
  33.6
  82.6
 138,
  29 <
   8.6
  33.1
  44.5
  37.2
  46.8
  51.3
     Allowable
     Emission
                                            kg/hr/
                                            plant
,5
,1
16.
13.
23.
23.
18,
 8.
      18.2
      21,0
      21.O3
                                                      Particulate
   Total
   metric
   ton/yr

   158
   130
 2,018
   224
 2,628
   168
   701
   675*
   580*
 2,028
10,951

20,261
 1 0.2 grains/.03 cubic meter  gas
 2 85% control
 3 Assumed, since no general regulation was  included  in  SIP.
Control Technology  and Costs.  In most  cases,  the  technology
used  for removing this particulate  matter will  be venturi
scrubbers.  If other technology is  used  for  some  of  the
driers, its cost should  be  comparable  to the cost of venturi
scrubbers, so that  a cost analysis  based on  venturi
scrubbers should be'valid.

A report by the Industrial  Gas Cleaning  Institute (IGCI)
gives some cost information on venturi scrubbers  for coal
driers.  This information and  some  calculations based on it
are summarized in Table  3-1-2. Annualized control costs and
industry operating  data  are detailed in  Table 3-1-3.
                            2-65

-------
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COAL GASIFICATION INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. One of the most
pressing aspects of the current national energy problem is
the present and projected shortage of natural gas.  As a
result of this shortage, a considerable number of projects
are underway involving the manufacture of synthetic natural
gas  (SNG) from the heavier, more plentiful energy sources.
Although SNG could be made from several energy sources,
including coal, coke, and petroleum residuum, all of the
present commercial plans are based on coal.

For some industrial applications, fuel gases that have a
heating value which is considerably less than that of
natural gas or SNG can be used.  Whereas the primary
constituent of natural gas is methane, the primary
combustible components of the "low Btu" gases are hydrogen
and carbon monoxide  (see Figure 3-2-1).  Coal gasification
processes involve the reaction of coal with steam and oxygen
to produce synthetic natural gas.  Low Btu gases can be
produced by substituting air for oxygen as a reactant.
                            2-68

-------
                       Figure 3-2-1.
       Simplified Flow  Diagram  of Coal Gasification
ASH-*-
                 COAL

                1
              GASIFICATION
                    RAW
                    GAS
                SULFUR
                REMOVAL
                  CO
                 SHIFT
                  CO
                REMOVAL
              METHANATION
                  I
  STEAM


  AIR OR 02
SULFUR-
                               SULFUR-*-
                                                     H2S
                                                 OXIDIZER
                                                  CLAUS
                                                  PLANT
                                                     TAIL
                                                     GAS
                 TAIL
                  GAS
              TREATMENT
                  I
AIR
LOW BTU GAS
                  SNG                          CLEAN TAIL GAS

NOTEt  IN SOME VERSIONS, H2S AND COj, ARE REMOVED TOGETHER AFTER THE CO SHIFT.

-------
Production of both SNG and low Btu gas are expected to be
rather extensive by 1985, even though commercial scale
operations do not currently exist.  However, projections of
the amounts of synthetic fuel gases which will be produced
at a given time in the future are subject to considerable
uncertainty because of the general turmoil in the energy
situation.  Most plants that are expected to be in
commercial operation by 1985 are already in the planning
stages, and initial plants are expected to be in operation
during the period 1977-78.
A total of 23 plants are expected to be producing SNG by
1985; plant capacities will range from 2.4 to 9.12 million
SCM/d.  About 46 low Btu production plants are expected to
be in operation by 1985, with the average plant size
equivalent to approximately 5.47 million SCM/d.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Coal contains varying
amounts of sulfur (from less than 1 to 7 percent).
Essentially all sulfur contained in coal is converted into
gaseous species (i.e. H2S) during the gasification process.
These gases can be removed by a two-step process which
involves (1)  the concentration of H2S through an amine
scrubbing process and (2)  the conversion of the H2S to
elemental sulfur via a Claus sulfur recovery plant.  The
Claus sulfur recovery process is currently widely practiced
by petroleum refiners and natural gas processors.
Approximately 95 percent of the sulfur in coal is removable
by Claus plants.  However, the remaining 5 percent escapes
from the Claus unit  (tail gas) in the form of various sulfur
oxides  (mostly sulfur dioxide) and must be controlled with
tail gas scrubbing to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions to
acceptable levels.

The emissions of sulfur oxides from the Claus plants were
calculated by assuming that all the sulfur in coal goes into
the gas and 95 percent of this sulfur is recovered by the
Claus plant.  The emission factors without tail gas
treatment, in metric tons of sulfur dioxide per billion
standard cubic meters of gas, are 88.41 for synthetic
natural gas and 6.60 for low-Btu gas.  The installation of
tail gas treatment facilities is assumed to reduce sulfur
dioxide emissions by 90 percent.

Control Technology and costs. It is assumed that the cost of
bulk sulfur removal from a coal gasification plant is not a
cost associated with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970
but is a standard practice partially induced by the
byproduct value of elemental sulfur.  In other words, even
before the 1970 Amendments were passed, coal gasification
                           2-70

-------
would have had a Glaus plant for bulk sulfur removal.   The
additional facility which is attributable to the Clean Air
Act is the tail gas treatment plant.  Since  this situation
is analogous to that for natural gas plants, the investment
and operating costs for tail gas treatment plants were
developed based upon the analyses for petroleum refining and
natural gas processing.

Since a Claus plant normally recovers about  95 percent of
the sulfur fed to it and the tail gas treatment facility
recovers about 90 percent, the combined recovery for both
units operating together is about 99.5 percent.  The credit
for the additional sulfur recovered by the tail gas
treatment plant is calculated by assuming a  price of $ 10-115
per ton of sulfur.  Recent market analyses indicate that
this may be an optimistic assumption.

Investment and annual operating and maintenance costs for
selected model-sized coal gasification plants, and total
industry costs for controlling sulfur dioxide from plants
expected to come on stream between 1977 and 1985 are given
in Table 3-2-1.
                           2-71

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NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY

Introduction Characteristics and Capacities. The natural gas
industry may be viewed as having two major sectors:
production and transmission/distribution.  The production
sector is dominated by large firms, but a large number of
smaller firms do contribute a sizable share of the total
output.  The transportation/distribution sector is primarily
organized as public utility companies which operate under
Federal and/or state regulations.  Although many gas utility
companies are now integrating back into production, the
basic structure of the industry remains as described here.

As of January 1, 1971, the 763 natural gas processing plants
in the United States had a total capacity of 2.11 billion
cubic meters per day.  The actual production rate of these
plants in 1973 was 1.57 billion cubic meters per day.  For
each of the last two years, the natural gas production rate
has decreased slightly.  The rate of change in production
rate since 1967 has been at an increase of only about H
percent per year.  Most projections of natural gas supply
assume little or no increase over the next several years.

The production of petroleum (crude oil)  is almost always
associated with the production of substantial quantities of
natural gas.  The distinction between "oil wells" and "gas
wells" is an arbitrary one based on the ratio of oil-to-gas
produced.  Natural gas is primarily methane, but the raw gas
contains varying amounts of heavier hydrocarbons and other
gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen, helium, and
hydrogen sulfide.  In order to obtain a natural gas of
pipeline quality, much of these undesired components must be
removed.  The heavier hydrocarbons, which can be
conveniently condensed, are combined with the liquid (oil)
production and sent to refineries for further processing;
the remaining gas is normally purified at the well site.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Hydrogen sulfide is the
impurity of concern from an air pollution standpoint.
Because.of the corrosive, poisonous, and odorous nature of
hydrogen sulfide, only very low concentrations of it are
permitted in the natural gas product.  Approximately 5
percent of the natural gas produced in the United States
requires some form of treatment to remove hydrogen sulfide.
The hydrogen sulfide content of natural raw gas varies from
trace quantities to over 50 percent by volume.

Although removal of the hydrogen sulfide from natural gas is
universally practiced, recovery of the corresponding sulfur
in elemental form to avoid air pollution is not universally
practiced.  In many of the larger operations, Claus plants


                           2-73

-------
have been installed for this purpose, but in many plants the
hydrogen sulfide is merely incinerated and flared, resulting
in emissions of sulfur oxides.

For the natural gas plants which have Claus plants, the
source of the sulfur oxides emitted is the Claus plant tail
gas.  The amount of this emission corresponds to about 6
percent of the 'sulfur fed to the Claus plant, as estimated
from the capacities of the Claus plants associated with
natural gas plants.  For the natural gas plants which do not
have Claus plants, the sources of the sulfur oxides emitted
are the flares in which the hydrogen sulfide removed from
the gas is burned.  The only available estimate of the
emission from such plants which was made by EPA. in 1972, was
852,000 metric tons of sulfur dioxide per year.

Control Technology and Costs. Because of the severe
limitations on the hydrogen sulfide content of pipeline gas,
all natural gas processing plants that handle the sour gas
already have the amine scrubbing facilities or equivalent to
remove it from the raw gas.  The technology needed to
prevent hydrogen sulfide from causing air pollution consists
of:

  *  A Claus sulfur plant in which the hydrogen sulfide is
     converted to elemental sulfur.

  •  Treatment facilities to remove sulfur dioxide from the
     Claus plant tail gas.

The investment and operating costs for these processes were
discussed in the section on refinery fuel gas burning; the
credit for the byproduct sulfur obtained with these
processes was also discussed in that section.

In  1973, there were 8*» Claus plants in the natural gas
processing industry.  These plants had a total sulfur
capacity of 6,249 metric tons per day, and an actual
production rate of 2,1H3 metric tons per day.  The gas
throughput associated with this sulfur recovery was 36
million cubic meters per day, or only about 2 percent of the
total natural gas production.

Annualized control costs and industry quality data are
detailed in Table 3-3-1.
                           2-7«»

-------
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FEED MILLS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities. Feed manufacture
is the process of converting the grain and other
constituents into the form, size, and consistency desired in
the finished feed.  Feed milling involves the receiving,
conditioning (drying, sizing, cleaning), blending, and
pelleting of the grains, and their subsequent bagging or
bulk loading.

As of July 1, 1971, the number of existing feed mills was
estimated at 7,866 plants, with a total capacity of 148
million metric tons per year.  For this report, these have
been grouped into the size categories as shown in
Table 3-4-1.
                        Table 3-»-1.
         Feed Mills Industry Production Capacities
Size Range
(metric
tons/day
0-44
45-90
91-136
No.
Mills
4,170
2,790
623
                       Capacity
                       (million metric
                       tons/year*)

                          47
                          70
                          23
Total
Capacity

   31.8
   47.3
   20.9
 Mill
 Model
 Size

11,271
25,090
36,920
*  Based on operating 40 hours per week and 50 weeks per year.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The primary emissions from
feed manufacture are particulates, especially dust.  The
factors affecting emissions include the type and amount of
grain handled, the degree of drying, the amount of liquid
blended into the feed, the type of handling  (conveyor or
pneumatic), and the degree of control.  An indication of the
relative ranking of emission sources in a typical feed mill
are:
                           2-76

-------
  Mill                                         Particulates
  Operations                                   Generated (%)

  Rail unloading                                     25
  Collectors for product recovery dust control       21
  Truck unloading                                    15
  Truck loading (bulk loadout)                       11
  Bucket elevator leg vents                           5
  Bin vents                                           5
  Scale vents                                         3
  Grinding system (feeder, spills)                    a
  Incinerator  (Waste paper)                           2
  Small boiler  (oil)                                  1
  Rail car loading  (bulk loadout)                     1
  Miscellaneous (conveying spouts, pellet
     mills, feeder lines)                             7

     Total Feed Mill Dust Emission                  100
Unloading of bulk incredients is generally acknowledged to
be one of the most troublesome dust sources in feed mills.
Centrifugal collectors used for product recovery and dust
control represent the second largest emission source.

Factors affecting emission rates from the ingredient
receiving area of a feed mill include the type of grain and
other ingredients handled, the methods used to unload the
ingredient, and the configuration of the receiving pits.

Control Technology and Costs. It is estimated that 88.1
percent of the volume handled in pellet-cooler operations
and 56 percent of the volume handled in griding operations
have some type of emission control, largely the use of
cyclones.  In receiving, transfer, and storage operations,
roughly one-third of the total volume is controlled by
either cyclones or fabric filters, while shipping has only a
few installations that have installed controls.

Table 3-U-2 shows the estimated sales, capacity, and
emissions for the feed mills industry up to the year 1985.
The table also shows the costs of controls on an annualized,
investment and cash requirements basis.
                           2-77


-------
KRAFT PULP INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. The kraft pulp
industry process mill size distributions are shown in Table
3-5-1.  Control cost estimates are based on the "model
plant" range size of 454, 907, and 1,361 ADMT/day.
                        Table 3-5-1
             Kraft Pulp Mill Size Distributions
Range of Mill
Capacities
 (ADMT/day)

   0.770
 771-1088
1089-2359

Number
of
Mills
71
29
25
Total
Cap. of
Mills in
Size Range
8ADMT/day)
31,809
21,675
33,736

Average
Mill
Capacity
(ADMT/day)
4()8.0
850.9
1319.4

Model
Mill
Capacity
(ADMT/day)
454
907
1361
Sources:  Publishing Co., Inc.  "Lockwood's Directory of the
Paper and Allied Trades", 97th Edition, New York, 1973;
Paper Processing, August, 1974, p.36; Pulp and Paper,
"Profiles of the North American Pulp and Paper Industry",
June 30, 1974, p.27.
Conventional kraft pulping processes are highly alkaline in
nature and utilize sodium hydroxide and "sodium sulfide as
cooking chemicals.  One modification used for the
preparation of highly purified, or high-alpha cellulose,
pulp utilizes an acid hydrolysis of the wood chips prior to
the alkaline cook; this is the prehydrolysis kraft process.
Kraft processes enjoy the advantages of being applicable for
nearly all species of wood and of having an effective means
of recovery of spent cooking chemicals for reuse in the
process.

Kraft pulping, in simplified terms, consists of seven
separate processes, as shown in Figure 3-5-1.  The digesting
liquor in this process flow is a solution of sodium
hydroxide and sodium sulfide.  The spent liquor (black
liquor)  is concentrated, then sodium sulfate is added to
make up for chemical losses, and the liquor is burned in a
recovery furnace, producing a smelt of sodium carbonate and
sodium sulfide.  The smelt is dissolved in water to form
green liquor, to which is added quicklime to convert the
sodium carbonate back to sodium hydroxide, thus
                           2-79

-------
reconstituting the cooking liquor.  The spent lime cake
(calcium carbonate) is recalcined in a rotary lime kiln to
produce quicklime  (calcium oxide) for recausticizing the
green liquor.
                           2-80

-------
            Figure 3-5-1.
Kraft Pulp Hills Production Processes
                                             POLLUTANTS
RECOVERED WHITE LIQUOR


^••^H



1
POWER
BOILER
S
LJ
1-
bO
f





\^

EVAPORATOR
STRONG BLACK \
LIQUOR


RECOVERY
FURNACE
1


SMELT
TANK
t
	 TANKS
t
LIME KILN

N\



WOOD
CHIPS
^ 1
DIGESTER





WEAK
BLACK BLOW
LIQUOR TANK










- -• -











WASHER
PULP.















PARTICULATES
#.

-







TRS


•



SULFER
DIOXIDE


                2-81

-------
Included in the uses of kraft pulp are the production of
linerboard, solid-fiber board, high-strength bags, wrapping
paper, high-grade white paper, and food-packaging materials.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Main emission sources in
the kraft process are the recovery furnace, lime kiln,
smelting dissolving tank, and the power boilers.  The kraft
pulping economics depend upon reclamation of chemicals from
the recovery furnace and lime kiln.  Hence, emissions from
these processes are controlled to minimize losses of
chemicals.

Particulates and gases are emitted from the various sources
of kraft process.  Numerous variables affect the quality and
quantity of emission from each source of the kraft pulping
process.  There are several sources of emissions in the
process and the applicable control technology and attainable
efficiencies of the control methods depend on the quantity
and quality of emissions.  The gaseous emissions occur in
varying mixtures, and are mainly hydrogen sulfide, methyl
mercaptan, dimethyl sulfide, dimethyl disulfide, and some
sulfur dioxide.  The sulfur compounds are generally referred
to as reduced sulfur compounds.  These compounds are.very
odorous, being detectable at a concentration of a few parts
per billion.  The particulate emissions are largely sodium
sulfate, calcium compounds, and fly .ash.

The rates of uncontrolled and controlled emissions of
particulate, total reduced sulfur  (TRS) , and sulfur dioxide
from various sources of kraft pulping processing in 1974
were as shown in Table 3-5-2.
                           2-82

-------
                        Table 3-5-2.
           Rates of Emissions from Kraft Process
                        Uncontrolled
Process

Digester
Washer
Multiple Effect
  Evaporator
Recovery Furnace
Smelt Tank
Lime Kiln
Power Boiler1

Totals
Particulates
(kg/ADMT)

   0.0
   0.0

   0.0
  60.0
   7.8
  3H.O
  35.3

 137.1
TRS
(kg/ADMT)

   0.72
   0.05

   0.18
   2.95
   0.05
   0.22
   0.0

   K.17
Sulfur Dioxide
(kg/ADMT)

   Trace
   Trace

   Trace
    1.2
   Trace
   Trace
   19.7

   20.9
Digester
Washer
Multiple Effect
  Evaporator
Recovery Furnace
Smelt Tank
Lime Kiln
Power Boiler

Totals
        Controlled
   0.0            Trace
   0.0            Trace
   0.0
   2.00
   0.25
   0.50
   2.i»7

   5.22
   Trace
   0.25
   Trace
   Trace
   0.0

   0.25
   Trace
   Trace

   Trace
    1.2
   Trace
   Trace
   10.5

   11.7
* Fuel requirement = 3.09 x 10* Btu/ADMT.  Coal provides
35%, oil 27%, gas 26%, and bark/wood 12% of the energy.
Heating values = coal 13,000 Btu/lb, oil 150,000 Btu/ft*,
and bark/wood U,500 Btu/f3.  Sulfur content = coal 1.9% and
oil 1.8%.  Ash content = coal 8.1% and bark/wood 2.9%.
                           2-83

-------
The process weight-emission limitation concept is considered
^inapplicable to chemical pulping because the nature and size
range of particulates, as well as the characteristics of the
processes, are vastly different.  Provisions of the
Washington and Oregon Regulations applicable to pulp mills
are used in this report.  The regulations include the
following control provisions:

  1. Total reduced sulfur (TRS)  compounds from the recovery
     furnace: No more than 1 kg/ADMT (1972) reduced to no
     more than 0.25 kg/ADMT by 1975.

  2. Noncondensible gases from the digesters and multiple
     effect evaporators: Collected and burned in the lime
     kiln or proven equivalent.

  3. Particulates from the recovery furnace: No more than 2
     kg/ADMT.

  H. Particulates from the lime kiln: No more than 0.5
     kg/ADMT.

  5. Particulates from smelt tank: No more than 0.25
     kg/ADMT.

  6. Emissions from power boiler will meet the Federal
     emission standard.

Control Technology and Costs. The cost estimates for kraft
pulping take into account the costs associated with each
constituent process.  The mill size categories, emissions,
and control technologies that have been assumed for each
process are shown in Table 3-5-3.  This table also presents
the total annual emissions and costs estimated for the kraft
pulping industry in 1975, 1980, and 1985.  The estimated
costs of air pollution control are significantly higher than
previous estimates because the costs to control TRS and
sulfur dioxide were not estimated earlier.
                           2-81

-------
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-------
NEUTRAL SULFITE SEMICHEMICAL PAPER INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. The size
distribution of neutral sulfite semichemical (NSSC) pulp
mills is classified into three size ranges: 0-181, 182-363,
and 361-635 air-dried metric tons  (ADMT) of air-dried pulp
per day.  The number of plants in each size range and their
capacities are:
Capacity
Range
(ADMT/day)

  0 - 181
182 - 363
364 - 635
No.   Capacity
Mills (ADMT/day)
 23
 24
  8
2,188
5,455
3,376
Average
Mill Capacity
(ADMT/day)

   108
   227
   422
Model Mill
Capacity
(ADMT/day)

   113
   277
   454
Sources:   Paper Processing, August 1974; p.36; Hendrickson,
           E.R., Roberson, J.E., and Koogler, J.E., "Control
           of Atmospheric Emissions in the Wood Pulping
           Industry", PB-190352, Environmental Engineering,
           Inc. and J.E. Sirrine Company, March 15, 1970.
Semichemical pulps are produced by digesting with reduced
amounts ,of chemicals, followed by mechanical treatment to
complete the fiber separation.  The most prevalent
semichemical pulping process is the neutral sulfite
semichemical process.  In this process, sodium sulfite in
combination with sodium bicarbonate, or ammonium sulfit-a
buffered with ammonium hydroxide, are used as cooking
chemicals.  These cooks are slightly alkaline in contrast to
the highly alkaline kraft, and highly or moderately acidic
sulfite cooks.  The semichemical pulping processes are used
for production of high yield pulps ranging from 60 to 85
percent of dry wood weight charged to the digestion vessel,
and can include kraft and sulfite processes suitably
modified to reduce pulping action in order to produce
higher-than-normal yield pulps.

Semichemical pulps are used in the preparation of
corrugating medium, coarse wrapping paper, linerboard,
hardboard, and roofing felt, as well as fine grades of paper
and other products.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Discussions and •
calculations of air emissions from the NSSC process are
limited to particulate and sulfur dioxide.  The used cooking
                           2-86

-------

                liquors are discharged to sewers or in some cases they are
                evaporated and cross-recovered with an adjacent kraft mill
                or treated in a fluidized-bed system.   In this study, the
                fluidized-bed combustion was assumed for the liquor
                treatment.

                Control Technology and Costs. This report assumed that
                particulate emissions from the recovery furnace and power
                boilers burning coal and bark/wood, and sulfur dioxide
                emission from power boilers burning high sulfur coal and oil
                were subject to control.  To meet the particulate emissions
                standard from recovery furnaces, a control efficiency of at
                least 90 percent is required for the control system.  A
                sodium-based, double alkali system was assumed for the
                control of sulfur dioxide from coal and oil burning power
                boilers.
                Control methods for new plants were selected as follows:
                                  \
                Process \                  Pollutant         Control Methods

                Recovery Furnace          Particulate       Electrostatic
                                                            Precipitator

                Power Boiler              Particulate       Electrostatic
                                          Sulfur Dioxide    Precipitator
                                                            Double alkali
                All new plants were assumed to be in the 36*» to 635 ADMT/day
                capacity range.

                Table 3-6-1 shows the estimated future capacity and process
                characteristics of NSSC pulp mills.   The emissions
                statistics are also shown, along with annual investment and
                cost estimates.                           '

                The costs estimated in this report are nearly ten times
                those reported earlier since previous estimates did not
                include the cost of controlling sulfur oxides.
                                           2-87
.

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-------
PRINTING INDUSTRY

Production characteristics and Capacities. Six major types
of printing establishments were considered in this report:
book printing and publishing; commercial printing by
letterpress; commercial printing by lithography; and
commercial printing by gravure.  Newspapers were excluded
because inks containing little, if any, volatile solvents
are employed.  Nearly 27,000 establishments comprise the six
groups; 80'percent of these are small, employing fewer than
20 people.

Estimates of air pollution abatement costs were based on the
application of controls (thermal incinerators)  by the 50
largest establishments in each of the first five categories.
Perodical and book plants accounted for about 70 percent of
the annual volume of ink consumed, which amounted to about
18 million kilograms per year or 181.6 kilo-kilograms per
plant annually.

Both commercial letterpress and lithography represent a
large number of smaller establishments, about 13,000 and
8,000 facilities, respectively.  While the 50 largest
establishments in each of the categories comprise only 10
percent and 25 percent of the annual volume of ink consumed,
respectively, they tend to use web-processing techniques
exclusively, which are a primary contributor to hydrocarbon
emissions.  Virtually all volatile components (approximately
10 percent by weight) of the ink are driven off during the
drying or curing stage of the web printing process.

All commercial gravure printers also use the web printing
methods.  There were 127 establishments in 1972 representing
about 114 million kilograms of ink usage.

In summary,  cost estimates were derived on the basis of
applying controls to 327 establishments corresponding to an
average plant size of 199 metric tons of ink consumed per
year.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric hydrocarbon
emissions associated with printing are attributable to the
volatile organic components of the various types of inks
employed.  The volatile content ranges from about «0 percent
(heat-set letterpress, lithographic, and screen process
inks) to more than 60 percent for flexographic and gravure.
The percentage of the volatile content released to the
atmosphere can vary widely in the absence of controls.  For
purposes of this report, full volatilization is assumed
without control.  On this basis, an average-sized
establishment that consumes approximately 199 metric tons of


                           2-89

-------
ink annually will generate about 204 metric tons of
hydrocarbon emissions per year.

Control Technology and Costs. Suitable controls (thermal
incinerators) provide about 95 percent removal efficiency.
Thermal incineration with heat exchange units could be
employed to achieve desired levels of hydrocarbon emission
control.  Although carbon absorption techniques present
advantages because of the possibility of solvent
regeneration, they are difficult to apply to printing
because inks often consist of a mixture of volatile
solvents, making subsequent separation steps necessary.

Capital and annual operating and maintenance costs were
estimated on the basis of applying a control unit designed
to handle approximately 109 kilograms of hydrocarbon
emissions per hour (or about 227 metric tons per year).
Installation and equipment, including heat exchanger, are
approximately $70,000 for such a unit.  Operating costs are
about $16*000 per year.  Annualized control costs and
industry operating statistics are detailed in Table 3-7-1.
                           2-90

-------
Table 3-7-1 .
inting Industry Data Summary
1975 1980 1985
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CHLQR-ALKALI MERCURY CELLS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. High-purity
caustic soda and chlorine are coproducts in the electrolytic
process which uses flowing mercury metals as a moving
cathode.  The caustic soda product finds major markets in
those chemical manufacturing operations where high-purity
and freedom from sodium chloride and metal impurities are in
demand.  Of the two basic processes, e.g., mercury cell and
diaphragm cell for producing chlorine, only the one
employing the mercury cell results in mercury emissions.
Chlorine is produced almost entirely by the electrolysis of
fused chlorides for aqueous solutions of alkali-metal
chlorides.  Chlorine is produced at the anode, while
hydrogen and potassium hydroxide or sodium hydroxide derive
from processes taking place at the cathode.  Anode and
cathode products must be separated, such as in a cell which
employs liquid mercury metal as an intermediate cathode.

The use of the mercury cell in the United States has grown
from 5 percent of the total installed chlorine capacity in
1946 toward a maximum of 28 percent of the installed
chlorine capacity through 1968.  The 197* capacity was
estimated at 7,863 metric tons of chlorine per day at 31
plants.  However, since then, the number of operating plants
has been decreasing.  The size distribution of these plants
is given below:
  Number of
  Plants

     5
    10
     8
     5
     3

    31
Capacity Range
(Chlorine Production)
Metric Tons/Day
   0
90.8
 182
 273
 455
  90.7
  181
  272
- 580
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The major sources of direct
emissions of mercury to the atmosphere are the hydrogen by-
product stream, end-box ventilation system, and cell-room
ventilation air.  The minimum known treatment of the
byproduct hydrogen gas that leaves the decomposer consists
of cooling the stream to 110°P followed by partial removal
of the resulting mercury mist.  For hydrogen saturated with
mercury vapor at this temperature, the daily vapor loss is
estimated to be 3.ft kg of mercury vapor per 100 metric tons
                           2-92

-------
of chlorine produced.  The entrainment of condensed mercury
in the hydrogen stream will result in additional emissions.
The estimated uncontrolled emission of mercury vapor and
mercury mist, after minimum treatment has occurred, is
estimated to be up to 25 kg per 100 metric tons of chlorine
produced.

Mercury vapor and mercury compounds are collected from the
end-boxes, the mercury pumps, and the end-box ventilation
system.  Preliminary results of source testing by EPA
indicate that the mercury emissions from an untreated or
inadequately treated end-box ventilation system range from 1
to 8 kg per 100 metric tons of chlorine produced.

In addition to cooling the cell room, the cell-room
ventilation system provides a means of reducing the cell-
room mercury-vapor concentration to within the recommended
Threshold Limit Value (TLV) for human exposure to mercury
vapor.  On the basis of data obtained from operating plants,
it has been estimated that mercury emissions from the cell-
room ventilation system vary from 0.2 to 2.5 kg per day per
100 metric tons of daily chlorine capacity, assuming a
concentration equal to the TLV of 50 micrograms per cubic
meter of ventilation air.

The Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that
uncontrolled emissions from the production of chlorine in
mercury cells averages approximately 20 kg of mercury per
100 metric tons of chlorine produced.

Control Technology and Costs. Control technologies and cost
estimates are based on the consideration that the maximum
daily mercury emission from any single site shall not exceed
2,300 grams; this assumption is in compliance with the
National Emissions standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants
promulgated by EPA.  Control techniques applicable to the
hydrogen gas stream include: cooling, condensation, and
demisting; depleted brine scrubbing; hypochlorite scrubbing;
absorption on molecular sieve; and adsorption on treated
activated carbon.

With appropriate modification, the control techniques
applicable to the end-box ventilation stream include
cooling, condensing, and demisting; depleted brine
scrubbing; and hypochlorite scrubbing.  It is judged that
the molecular-sieve adsorption system will become applicable
in the near future to the end-box ventilation-gas stream.
This control technique will permit compliance with the
hazardous emission standard.
                           2-93

-------
Mercury vapor from the cell-room ventilation air can be
minimized by strict adherence to recommended good
housekeeping and operating procedures.  No other control
technique is commercially tested at this time.  All mercury
emissions could be eliminated by the conversion of mercury-
cell plants to the use of diaphragm cells plus a special
caustic soda purification system.  Such conversion is
presently judged to be an unacceptable alternative due to
the very high estimated cost,  control costs were estimated
on a plant-by-plant basis.  Investment per plant ranges from
$123,000 to just over J1.3 million, depending on capacity
and operating characteristics.  Annualized control costs and
industry statistics are detailed in Table 3-8-1.
                           2-94

-------
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NITRIC ACID INDUSTRY

Production characteristics and Capacities. Nitric acid is
used in the manufacture of ammonium nitrate and in numerous
other chemical processes.  Ammonium nitrate, which is used
as both a fertilizer and in explosives, accounts for about
80 percent of the nitric acid consumption.  Nitric acid is
produced by oxidation of ammonia, followed by absorption of
the reaction products in dilute acid solution.  Most nitric
acid plants in the United States are designed to manufacture
acid with a concentration of 55 to 65 percent, which may
subsequently be dehydrated to produce 99 percent acid.

At the beginning of 197*, U6 privately-owned companies
operated 76 nitric acid plants in the contiguous US states,
in addition to seven plants operated for the U.S. Government
by five companies.  These government-owned plants are
included in cost estimates as part of the nitric acid
industry by inflating the private costs by 10 percent.
Nearly all nitric acid produced in the United States is for
domestic consumption.

Emissions Sources and Pollutants. Nitrogen oxides, the
primary pollutants of concern in the production of nitric
acid, are emitted in the tail gas from the absorption tower.
Numerous variations on the basic nitric acid production
process affect both the emissions and the difficulty of
control.  Two of the more important variables are the amount
of excess oxygen present in the absorption tower and the
pressure under which the absorption tower operates.  Many
plants practice partial pollution abatement (decolorization)
in accordance with local regulatory agencies.  Under this
practice, the highly visible reddish-brown nitrogen dioxide
is reduced to colorless nitric oxide.  Although visible
emissions are reduced, the practice does nothing to prevent
emission of nitrogen oxides to the atmosphere.

Emissions from nitric acid plants consist of the oxides of
nitrogen in concentrations of about 3,000 ppm nitrogen
dioxide and nitric oxide, and minute amounts of nitric acid
mist.  Emissions from nitric acid plants are typically in
the order of 22 kg nitrogen oxides per metric ton of 100
percent acid produced.

Control Technology and Costs. Catalytic reduction with
natural gas is a feasible and proven control technology used
in nitric acid plants both here and abroad.  The absorber
tail gas is mixed with 38 percent excess natural gas and
passed over a platinum or palladium catalyst.  Catalytic
reduction with ammonia or hydrogen has the advantage of
being selective in the sense that only the nitrogen oxides
                           2-96

-------
are reduced.  In addition to higher costs, reduction with
ammonia requires close temperature control to prevent the
reformation of nitrogen oxides at higher temperatures or the
formation of explosive ammonium nitrate at lower
temperature s.

Table 3-9-1 shows the estimated future sales, capacities,
and outputs for the nitric acid industry.  Also shown in the
table are the reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions for the
selected years, and the three major cost categories:
annualized, investment, and cost requirements.
                           2-97

-------
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PAINT MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. The manufacturing
of paints involves the mixing or dispersion of pigments in
oil, resin, resin solution or latex at room temperature.
Mixing is then followed by the addition of specified
proportions of organic solvents or water to obtain the
desired viscosity.

in 1972, there were 1,556 plants manufacturing paint
products in the United States.  Production is not divided
evenly, with approximately 30 percent of the plants
accounting for nearly 90 percent of production.

The average-sized plant accounts for about 6.06 million
liters per year or roughly 22,740 liters per day.  The
balance of the plants were omitted from control cost
considerations because they collectively account for only
about 379 million liters per year, or about 7 percent of the
daily production of the average plant in the larger
category.

current trends in the industry should decrease the future
hydrocarbon emission levels associated with paint
manufacturing.  These include the use of water-based paints
and new application techniques such as powder coating.
These developments will continue to have a negative impact
on the demand for organic solvent-based paints; it is
estimated that water-based paints currently represent about
25 percent of total production volume.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Air pollutants from paint
manufacturing are hydrocarbons originating from organic
solvents and particulates from paint pigments.  About 908
grams of particulates are emitted per metric ton of pigment
dispersed.  Hydrocarbon emission estimates assume that 75
percent of the 1975 volume of paint was solvent based.

Control Technology and Costs. Control of hydrocarbon
emissions from paint production can be accomplished by these
methods: flame combustion, thermal combustion, catalytic
combustion, and absorption.  Thermal combustion  (with heat
exchange) is considered the most feasible method of control;
equipment incorporating heat exchange devices was chosen
because of current anticipated future fuel shortages and
assumed removal efficiences of 95 percent.  Catalytic
combustion units, while highly promising from the standpoint
of lower fuel'requirements (but higher initial investment
costs), still present technical operating problems.
Baghouses  (fabric filters) are suitable for control of
                           2-99

-------
particulate emissions from pigments; particulate removal
efficiences of more than 95 percent are readily achieved.

Estimates for air pollution control for the total industry
were based on assumed compliance by plants averaging about
7.58 million liters of paint production per year; fewer than
500 plants of this capacity were assumed to be in operation.
Future cost predictions are complicated by the emergence of
technological trends away from the use of solvent-based
paints.  Annualized control costs and production statistics
are detailed in Table 3-10-1.
                           2-100

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PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities. The major end
products of the phosphate fertilizer industry are ammonium
phosphates, triple superphosphate, normal superphosphate,
and granular mixed fertilizers.  Phosphoric acid and
superphosphoric acid are intermediate products.

All phosphate fertilizers are processed from ground
phosphate rock treated with sulfuric acid to produce either
normal superphosphate or wet-process phosphoric acid.  A
phosphoric acid intermediate may then be reacted with
ammonia to produce diammononium phosphate and other ammonium
phosphates, or reacted with ground phosphate rock to
manufacture triple superphosphate.  Superphosphoric acid,
produced by dehydration of wet-process phosphoric acid, is
used in preparing some mixed fertilizers.  Granular mixed
fertilizers are made from either normal superphosphate or
triple superphosphate, with ammonia and potash.  Bulk-
blended mixed fertilizers are manufactured by physically
mixing particles of other fertilizer components and liquid
mixed fertilizers.  Bulk blends and liquids are not major
sources of air pollution and are not considered in
estimating the industry abatement cost.

The phosphate fertilizer industry is characterized by a
number of large, modern efficient plants located near the
source of raw materials.  In general, these plants
manufacture the more concentrated forms of fertilizer,
diammonium phosphate  (DAP) and triple superphosphate  (TSP) .
These industries are particularly concentrated in Florida.

Smaller plants, located near the retail markets, manufacture
the less concentrated forms: granulated mixed fertilizer
(NPK) and normal superphosphate (NSP).  The smaller NSPr
NPK, and bulk-blend plants are located in the farming
states.  At the beginning of 1973, there were 33 DAP plants,
13 TSP plants, 15 NSP plants, and 3H1 ammoniation-
granulation  (NPK) plants.  In addition, about 5,000 bulk-
blending plants were operating in 1973.

Due to the seasonal demand for fertilizer, many plants
manufacturing NSP and NPK operate only a portion of the
year.  In contrast, those plants manufacturing DPA and TSP
generally operate year-round.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from phosphate
fertilizer processing plants are mainly fluorides  (in the
form of hydrogen fluoride and silicon tetrafluoride) and
particulates.  Fluorides are generated in the processes of
                           2-102

-------
acidulation of phosphate rock which contains calcium
fluoride.

In the phosphate fertilizer industry, particulate emissions
of significance originate from: phosphate rock grinding;
calcination, drying, and transfer processes, triple
superphosphate manufacture; ammonium phosphate production;
normal superphosphate manufacture; and NPK bulk-blending and
granulation plants.

In phosphate rock processing, particulate emissions are
issued from the calcination, drying, grinding, and transfer
processes.  The emission factors for these processes are
7.5, 10, and 1 kg per metric ton of rock, respectively.

In granular triple superphosphate production, particulate
emissions may originate from a number of points in the
process.  Most of the particulates are given off in the
drying and product-classification processes.  The off-gas
from the reactor (in which phosphate rock is acidulated with
phosphoric acid) arid the blunger  (in which the reactor
effluent is mixed with recycled product fines to produce a
paste)  may account for a considerable percentage of the
total particulates emitted.

Particulate emissions from diammonium phosphate manufacture
originate mainly from the granulator and the dryer.  It has
been estimated that the total emissions amount to
approximately 20 kg per metric ton of product from both
sources.

Emissions from the manufacture of run-of-pile normal super-
phosphate originate from both the acidulation and "denning"
processes.  Although the emission factors for particulates
are not known, they are estimated to be in the order of 5 kg
per metric ton.

The NPK or granulation plants manufacture a variety of
products.  Many different emission factors probably will
apply for this class of fertilizer plant.  In fixing the
emission factors, these plants are assumed to employ an
ammoniation-granulation process similar to that used in the
DAP process, or approximately 20 kg of particulates per
metric ton of product.

The emission factors for particulates are high in the triple
superphosphate, diammonium phosphate, and NPK plants.  The
bulk of these emissions in all three processes originates
from the granulation process.  There is a strong economic
incentive to reduce these emissions since they contain
valuable products and in many cases are associated with
                           2-103

-------
ammonia vapors (from the ammoniation process), whose
recovery is an economic necessity.

Control Technology and Costs. Most of the phosphate rock of
higher available phosphorus pentoxide content is ground and
beneficiated to enhance its reactivity and to eliminate some
of the impurities.  The particulate emissions from the
grinding and screening operations may be effectively
controlled by employing baghouses in which the dust is
deposited on mechanically-cleaned fabric filters.  The dust-
laden gas from the rock-drying  (and perhaps defluorination)
operations may first pass through a cyclone and then through
a wet scrubber (such as a venturi).  The efficiency of this
combination should be better than 99 percent.

Particulate and fluoride emissions from phosphate fertilizer
plants traditionally have been removed from waste gaseous
streams by wet scrubbing.  While efforts have been directed
at removing fluorides, up to 99 percent of the particulates
are simultaneously removed.  Wet scrubbers of varying
efficiencies have been used for this double purpose.  The
fluoride and particulate-laden scrubber water is usually
disposed of in a gypsum pond.

For control of particulate emissions from granular TSP
plants, various wet scrubbers will be provided for a number
of gaseous waste streams.  The effluent from the reactor-
granulator will be scrubbed in two stages.  The first stage
will be a cyclone and the second a cross-flow packed
scrubber.  The gases from the drier and cooler will be
scrubbed in venturi-type packed scrubbers.  Waste gases from
storage of the granular product are usually scrubbed in a
cyclone scrubber, although some plants use packed scrubbers.
The scrubbing liquid used in all scrubbers will be recycled
pond water except for the first-stage scrubbing of gases
from the reactor granulator, where weak phosphoric acid will
be used and recycled to the reactor.

In DAP plants, control of particulates will be achieved for
gaseous streams originating from the reactor granulator, the
drier, and the cooler, together with combined gaseous
streams ventilating such solids-processing equipment as
elevators, screens, and loading and unloading.  Two-stage
scrubbing will be employed for each of the streams listed.
The first stage will consist of a cyclone scrubber; the
scrubbing medium will be diluted  (30 percent)  phosphoric
acid for purposes of recovering ammonia and the product.
Most of the particulate matter will be removed in the first
stage, and the balance will be removed in the second stage
consisting of a cross-flow packed scrubber in which recycled
pond water is used as the scrubbing medium.
                           2-101

-------
It is assumed that only run-of-pilc normal superphosphate is
produced in NSP plants.  A cyclone scrubber will be employed
in removing particulates in gaseous streams originating from
the reactor-pugmill, den, and curing operations.

An ammoniation-granulation process is assumed for NPK
plants.  Cyclones will be installed ahead of primary
scrubbers.  The primary scrubber  (typically employing dilute
phosphoric acid as a scrubbing medium)  is considered an
integral part of the process in which valuable reactants
(ammonia) and the product are recovered.

Cross-flow scrubbers have been used in estimating costs of
controlling emissions of both particulates and fluorides.
Most of the control technologies described above have been
applied for more than a decade.  Wet scrubbers of varying
efficiencies have been integral parts of many phosphate
fertilizer processes.  The collection of waste gaseous
streams and the removal of fluorine compounds from these
streams has long been practiced to protect the health and
safety of process operating personnel.  Collection of
particulate materials from those waste gaseous streams is
dictated by economic necessity because valuable products are
involved.

Table 3-11-1 shows the estimated future sales and capacities
for phosphate fertilizers.  The table also shows the number
of model plant sizes used to calculate costs for the four
fertilizer types.  The emissions are reduced dramatically
below levels that would have been achieved for purely
economic recovery purposes.  The control costs are shown for
investment and cash requirements, as well as for annualized
expenditures over the next decade.
                           2-105

-------
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NON-FERTILIZER PHOSPHORUS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. In 1973, there
were 21 plants engaged in the production of elemental
phosphorus, defluorinated phosphates  (DFP), and calcium
phosphates (Dical).  The combined capacity of these plants
is approximately 4,808 metric tons per day or 1.6 million
metric tons per year  (P2O5 equivalent) in 1973.  Ten plants
produce elemental phosphorus and account for over 60 percent
of the total capacity involved in the production of non-
fertilizer phosphates.  A summary of model plant size
distributions and capacities for the three products is
provided in Table 3-12-1.
                       Table 3-12-1.
             Non-Fertilizer Phosphates Industry
                Plant Capacity Distribution
                 Plant
                 Capacity
                  (P205,   No.
                 MT/day)  Plants
Phosphate
  reduction
Defluorinated
  phosphate
Calcium
  phosphate
 54
217
649
 31
 93
125
386
 54
200
580
 3
 4
 3

10

 1
 1
 1
 1
 4
 2
 1
Total
Capacity
(P205,
MT/day)

   162
   867
 1,948

 2,977

    31
    93
   125
   386

   635

   216
   400
   580

 1,196
                                Percent
                            Group  Industry
  5
 29
 66

100

  5
 15
 20
 60

100

 18
 33
 48

100
  3
 18
 41

 62

nil
  2
  3
  8

 14

  5
  8
 12

 25
  Totals
         21
         4,808
                    100
The production of industrial phosphorus and phosphate
containing animal feeds begins with thermal and/or chemical
processing of phosphate rock.  Phosphates that are suitable
                           2-107

-------
as additives to feeds may result from the direct
defluorination of phosphate rock, defluorination of
phosphoric acid from wet process acid, or defluorination of
furnace acid, e.g., acid made from elemental phosphorus
produced by thermal reduction of phosphate rock.  The
production of feed-grade phosphates by conversion of
elemental phosphorus is expected to decline because of the
energy requirements of the thermal reduction of phosphate
rock.  Decreased production by'this process will be
compensated for by increased production from wet process
acids, so the overall production of feed-grade phosphates
will increase at an annual rate of approximately 4 percent.
Current production is estimated to be about 90 percent of
capacity.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions from
the manufacture of defluorinated phosphates are primarily
fluorides and particulates.  Currently, only Florida has
established controls for fluoride emissions; it is
anticipated that Federal and state regulations for control
of fluoride emissions will be promulgated shortly, and so
control costs for this pollutant are included in the
analysis for this industry.

Gaseous fluorides are released during the thermal and/or
chemical reduction of phosphate rock with the major point of
emissions in feed preparation.  Emission factors may be as
high as 33 kilograms fluorine per metric ton of phosphorus
processed.

A summary of estimated fluoride emissions from the
production of defluorinated phosphates is presented below;
control efficiencies of 95 percent are assumed.
1975
  Phosphate reduction
  Defluorinated
     phosphate
  Calcium phosphate

1985
  Phosphate reduction
  Defluorinated
     phosphate
  Calcium phosphate
Present Controls
(metric tons/yr)


   430

 2,560
    40


   260

 3,910
    50
Further Controls
   (metric tons/yr)


   25

  158
    2


   15

  242
    3
                           2-108

-------
Control Technology and Costs. Control of fluorides can be
accomplished by the use of wet scrubbers. If These devices,
which could include liquid ejector venturi scrubbers, liquid
impingement control systems, and spray towers, also serve to
control particulate emissions to levels of 95 percent or
more.

For DPP and Dical plants, control costs are comparable for
similar sized plants but almost four times as high as for
phosphate reduction plants of similar size.  The lower
control costs associated with animal feed production from
furnace acid is due to the relatively lower percentage of
fluorides contained in the phosphoric acid obtained from
thermal reduction of rock.  Annualized control costs and
industry operating statistics are detailed in Table 3-12-2.
                           2-109

-------
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SULFURIC ACID INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. About half of the
sulfuric acid produced in the United States is used in the
manufacture of phosphate fertilizers; the rest is used in
myriad industrial applications ranging from steel pickling
to detergent manufacturing.

Sulfuric acid is manufactured by chemical companies and by
companies primarily engaged in smelting nonferrous metals;
both sources compete for the same buyers.  Nevertheless, the
manufacturing of sulfuric acid by the smelter industry is
primarily a byproduct resulting from the control efforts to
reduce sulfur dioxide emissions to the atmosphere, and
secondarily, as an attempt to generate additional revenue.
For the purposes of this report, smelter acid is considered
to be part of the smelter industry rather than the sulfuric
acid industry.

The major products of the sulfuric acid industry are
concentrated sulfuric acid (93 to 99 percent) and oleum.  A
few sulfuric acid plants associated with the fertilizer
industry produce less-concentrated grades of acid.
Essentially, all sulfuric acid in the United States is
currently produced by the contact process, less than 0.1
percent is being produced by the older chamber process.

In sulfur-burning plants, sulfuric acid is produced by
burning elemental sulfur with dry air in a furnace to
produce sulfur dioxide.  The latter is catalytically
converted to sulfur trioxide.  The hot converter effluent is
cooled and introduced to an absorption tower where the
sulfur trioxide is absorbed in a sulfuric acid solution to
form more sulfuric acid by its reaction with water.

Some plants  (including spent-acid plants and smelter-gas
plants) operate on the same principle as sulfur-burning
plants, except that the sulfur dioxide is obtained from the
combustion of spent acid and hydrogen sulfide or from
smelter off-gas.  In these plants, the sulfur-bearing gas is
dried with sulfuric acid and cleaned (subjected to
particulate and mist removal process) before introduction to
the acid plant.

Of the known 183 sulfuric acid plants operating in 1973, 167
were contact process plants and 16 were chamber process
plants.  Of the 25.5 million metric tons of new sulfuric
acid produced, 25.3 million metric tons were made in contact
process plants.  This volume production included sulfuric
acid produced by the sulfuric acid industry  (as defined in
this report) and by the smelter industry.  In 1974, 58
                           2-111

-------
companies operated sulfur-burning or wet-process contact
acid plants in 134 locations, and 16 companies operated
smelter acid plants in 23 locations.  In addition, five
companies operated small chamber-acid plants in five
locations.

Emissions Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from sulfuric
acid plants consist of sulfur dioxide gases and sulfuric
acid mist.  These pollutants evolve from incomplete
conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfur trioxide in the
converter, and from the formation of a stable mist
consisting of minute particles of sulfuric acid that resist
absorption in the acid absorber.

Controlled Technolocy and Costs. The controlled emission
factors for existing facilities for FY 1976 are as specified
by the SIP's; new source values were assumed to apply to
both existing and new facilities in FY 1980.

In sulfuric acid plants using the two-stage or dual
absorption control process, the gas from the first acid
absorber is initially heated  (sometimes removing the mist)
and then sent through a single-stage converter where the
sulfur dioxide is converted to sulfur trioxide.  The gas
from the converter is then sent to an absorber and a
demister before release to the atmosphere.

Dual adsorption has reliably met EPA standards of
performance for new and modified sources in applications of
two types of sulfuric acid plants (sulfur-burning and wet
gas) of all sizes.  In addition to controlling sulfur
dioxide emissions, the dual absorption method offers the
added advantage of not requiring new operational skills on
the part of acid plant operators.  This control technology
has been used in computing the sulfur dioxide control costs
for all new and existing sulfuric acid plants.

Table 3-13-1 shows that capacity is increasing at a
substantial rate for this industry, with associated costs
reflecting this trend.  This may cause the costs to be
overstated due to the rapid increase in sulfuric acid
recovered in the control of sulfur oxides from smelters and
utility plants.  The control costs are also shown for total
annualized expenditures, investment and cash requirements.
                           2-112

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PETROCHEMICALS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. In estimating air
emission control costs associated with the petrochemical
industry, the production of the following major large volume
petrochemicals was considered:

     FormaIdehyde
     Acrylonitrile
     Ethylene dichloride
     Ethylene oxide
     Phthalic anhydride.

A major air pollution problem in the petrochemical industry
is the emission of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide via off-
gases produced in oxidation processes.  The petrochemicals
involved in this problem include hot only oxygen-containing
compounds, such as oxides, aldehydes, and anhydrides, but
also compounds in which oxygen serves an intermediate role
in the synthesis, such as acrylonitrile and ethylene
dichloride.  In a typical process of this type, the raw
material, air (sometimes oxygen), and sometimes a third
reactant are fed into a vapor-phase catalytic oxidation
reactor.  The reactor effluent gases go to an absorber in
which the desired product is scrubbed out.  The off-gas from
this absorber, which is vented to the atmosphere, contains
mostly nitrogen and carbon dioxide, but smaller amounts of
carbon monoxide and unconverted hydrocarbons are also
present.

  Formaldehyde.  Formaldehyde is synthesized by oxidation of
methandl with air and sold as an aqueous solution (37
percent by weight).  Two different processes are used, one
based on a metal oxide catalyst and one based on a silver
catalyst; about 77 percent of the domestic formaldehyde
production uses the silver process and the other 23 percent
uses the metal oxide process.

Production in 1971, as estimated from data for the first 8
months of the year, was about 2.8 billion kilograms of 37
percent formaldehyde.  Growth is due primarily to increased
demand for urea-formaldehyde and phenolformaldehyde resins,
which consume about half of all the formaldehyde produced.

  Acrylonitrile. Ammoxidation of propylene, the most widely
practiced method for producing acrylonitrile, consists of
the catalytic oxidation of ammonia with air.  Typically, the
gaseous products from the oxidation chamber are passed to an
absorber where the acrylonitrile is collected.  The off-gas
from the absorber is normally vented^to the atmosphere, a
process which is largely uncontrolled at present.
                           2-111

-------
Production in 197ft, as estimated from data for the first
eight months of the year, was about 681 million kilograms.
Growth is due primarily to increased demand for acrylic
fibers, which consume about half of all the acrylonitrile
produced, and for plastics, which consume another 15 percent
of total production.

  Ethylene Bichloride  (EDC). Ethylene dichloride can be
produced by two alternative processes, direct chlorination
or oxychlorination.  While half of the U.S. production of
EDC is by direct chlorination, the process results in only
10 percent of the volume of atmospheric emissions that
result from the oxychlorination process and, hence, only
oxychlorination is considered here.

Production in 1974, as estimated from data for the first
eight months of the year, was about 3.5 billion kilograms.
The use of the oxychlorination process should continue to
account for about 48 percent of the total production, or
about 2.8 billion kilograms in 1985.

  Ethylene Oxide. In recent years, the dominant process for
manufacturing ethylene oxide has become the direct oxidation
of ethylene.  There are four processes used for ethylene
oxide manufacture by direct oxidation and all use a silver
catalyst.  Only two of the plants oxidize with dioxide, the
others use air.  The plants which oxidize with dioxide are
similar except that usually only a primary reactor and
absorber are used.  Compared to the plants which use air,
the plants which use dioxide produce much less absorber gas
but much more carbon dioxide rich purge gas.

  Phthalic Anhydride. Phthalic anhydride is produced by the
oxidation of either o-xylene or naphthalene; about 55
percent of the phthalic anhydride is produced from o-xylene.
This process is expected to gain an increasing share of
industrial production because oxylene is less expensive than
naphthalene.

A number of processes are available for producing phthalic
anhydride.  Most of the naphthalene-based processes use
fluidized-bed reactors, whereas all xylene-based processes
use tubular fixed-bed reactors.  Except for the reactors and
the catalyst handling facilities required for the fluidized-
bed units, the processes based on the two raw materials are
quite similar.  In both cases, the reactor effluent gases
are used to generate steam in a waste heat boiler and then
go to a seperation system in which the phthalic anhydride is
condensed out as solid crystals.  The condenser effluent
gases are ultimately vented to the atmosphere, although in
most plants they are first water-scrubbed or incinerated.
                           2-115

-------
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions
arising from petrochemical production result from the
venting of off-gases from the absorber.  The chief air
pollutants are hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide.
Corresponding emission factors for these pollutants as a
function of production volume are given in Table 3-14-1.
                           2-116

-------
                             Table  3-14-1.
                       Petrochemicals  Industry
                     Calculated Emission Factors


                             (No Controls)


                                              Kilograms Emitted Per 10  Kilograms of Product

Petrochemical         Waste Gas Streams           CO           Hydrocarbons     SOx (as  S02)

Formaldehyde (37X)     Absorber vent                3.33          5.28
Acrylonitri1e '        Absorber vent               74.19         83.52
Ethlene dichloride     Absorber vent                3.31         12.94
Ethylene oxide        Absorber vent •*• C02 purge     0.           50.15         •       -
Pthalic anhydride      Absorber vent               73.76         19.50                2.29
                                  2-117

-------
Control Technology and Costs. The control technology judged
to be most feasible for control of hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide emissions from the manufacture of petrochemicals is
thermal incineration  (often referred to as afterburners).
Thermal incinerators were considered in place of catalytic
incinerators because of the latter's higher initial
investment costs and requirement for catalyst replacement
costs.  The investment for thermal incinerators was based on
a compilation of costs by the Midwest Research Institute
 (MRI), which considered the purchased cost of a thermal
incinerator plus the heat exchanger in which the effluent
gases heat up the influent gases.  These costs were inflated
to mid-1973 using the Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index
and were found to compare closely with investment data
provided in a recent report by Houdry on acrylonitrile.
Annual costs were calculated from utility  (fuel and power)
requirements, annual maintenance, and operating labor.

The distribution of plant size categories, number of plants,
capacity and percent of industry capacity represented by
model size, and the unit investment and annual operating and
maintenance costs are given in Table 3-11-3 for each
petrochemical production process covered.  Annualized
Industry costs for air pollution abatement in the period
1976-85 are also provided in Table 3-14-2.
                           2-118

-------
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-------
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. The petroleum
industry can be divided into the following four operating
areas:

  Exploration and production, which includes the search for
new oil supplies, the drilling of oil fields, removal of oil
from the ground, and pretreatment at the well site.

  Refining, which includes the operations necessary to
convert the crude oil into salable products such as
gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, distillate and residual fuel
oils, lubricants, asphalt, specialty products, and chemical
raw materials such as ethylene and benzene.

  Transportation, which involves the movement of crude oil
to the refinery and refined products to market areas.

  Marketing, which involves the distrubution and sale of the
finished products.

Integration and diversification prevail within the industry.
Most of the firms involved in refining are also involved in
production and/or marketing.  All the large and medium sized
firms are involved in the manufacture of petrochemicals.
Some firms are involved in the production aspects of energy
sources .other than crude oil, i.e., coal or Canadian tar
sands.

As of January 1, 197U, the 2<»7 refineries in the United
States had a total crude oil capacity of 14.2 million
barrels per day.  A distribution of these refineries by size
and percent of total capacity is as follows:
                           2-120

-------
Capacity
Range
(1,000 bbl No.
Cal day)   Refineries

Op to 5       46
 5 to 10      30
10 to 15      21
15 to 25      21
25 to 50      45
50 to 75      23
75 to 100     20
100 to 200    26
Over 200      15

Totals       247
  Total
  Capacity
  (1,000 bbl
  Cal day)

   144
   236
   274
   437
 1,645
 1,444
 1,831
 3,657
 4,550

14,216
Total
Industry
Capacity (%)

   1.01
   1.66
   1.92
   3.07
  11.57
  10.15
  12.88
  25.72
  32.02

 100.00
Average
Capacity
(1,000  bbl
Cal  day)

   3
   8
  13
  21
  37
  63
  92
141
303
During the period from 1970 to 1974, total crude processing
capacity increased by 2.1 million barrels per day, despite a
drop in the number of refineries from 262 to 247, indicating
a gradual trend toward larger plants.  Although there are
about 130 firms which operate refineries, over 80 percent of
the total capacity is controlled by 17 major firms; each
firm controls crude processing capacity in excess of 200,000
barrels per day.  A breakdown of capacity and number of
plants operated by these firms is as follows:
                           2-121

-------
Company

Exxon
Shell
Texaco
Amoco
Standard (CA)
Mobil
Gulf
ARCO
Union Oil
Sun Oil
Phillips
Sohio/BP
Ashland
Continental
Marathon
Cities
Amer. Petrofina

Subtotal

Remaining Firms
NO.
Refineries

    5
    8
   12
   10
   12
    8
    8
    6
    4
    5
    6
    4
    7
    7
    3
    1
    4

  110

  137

  247
Crude capacity       Crude
(1000 bbl/cal day)    Capacity

       1,252              8.8
       1,109              7.8
       1,083              7.6
       1,065              7.5
         981              6.9
         932              6.6
         861              6.1
         790              5.6
         187              3.4
         484              3.4
         404              2.8
         384              2.7
         358              2.5
         349              2.5
         314              2.2
         268              1.9
         200              1.4

      11,324             79.7

       2,892             20.3

      14,216            100.0
The intensity of the energy shortage resulted in the largest
absolute capacity increase since 1967, and the largest
percentage increase in at least a decade.  The increase was
6.2 percent, compared with 2.3 - 4.3 percent for the
preceding 3 years.

Very few new refineries have been built in the last 5 years;
the growth has occurred primarily through the expansion of
existing facilities.  This is in part due to difficulty in
securing approval for new sites.  A survey of refinery
construction plans in August of 1973 showed "definite
projects" for 1974-77 totaling 1.13 million barrels per day
(all expansions)  and projects "under study" totaling about
0.9 million barrels per day (mostly new refineries).

Turning now to the aspects of the petroleum industry which
are of particular importance in air pollution abatement, the
capacity of fluid bed catalytic cracking is expected to grow
at the same rate as total refinery capacity, i.e., 4.2
percent per year.

It is estimated that the 247 domestic refineries produce
about 70 million cubic meters per day of refinery gases.
                           2-122

-------
                The present claus plant capacity for recovering sulfur from
                these gases is about 8,300 metric tons per day.

                Emission Sources and Pollutants. The three major sources of
                air pollution in the petroleum industry covered in this
                report are regeneration of catalysts used in catalytic
                cracking, burning of fuel gases from various refinery
                process operations in order to recover the fuel values, and
                handling and storage of volatile petroleum products and
                crude oils.  A consolidated view of the type and extent of
                the emissions from refining and related operations, is
                presented below.

                  Catalytic Cracking. Catalyst regeneration during the
          ,      operation of catalytic cracking units has been identified as
                a major source of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons,
                and, in the case of the fluid bed units which dominate this
                process, particulate emissions.  The coke deposited on the
                catalyst during the cracking operation must be continually
                removed to permit the catalyst to maintain high activity.
                In a fluid bed catalytic cracker, the catalyst bed is
                continuously circulated between the reactor, where the coke
                is deposited on the catalyst, and the regenerator, where it
j.                is burned off with air.  The amount of coke deposited on the
I                catalyst per unit of feedstock is a function of the
                feedstock and operating conditions.

                  Fuel Gas Burning. Currently, amine scrubbing units are
                widely used to remove hydrogen sulfide from the fuel gas
                generated within refineries.  The hydrogen sulfide is
                thermally stripped from the scrubbing liquor and then is
                either sent to a sulfur recovery plant (usually a Claus
                plant) or is burned to sulfur dioxide, which is emitted to
                the atmosphere through a flare.  In 1973, about 70 percent
                of the sulfur which went into fuel gas was recovered as
                elemental sulfur, the other 30 percent was emitted as sulfur
                dioxide.

                  Petroleum Storage. The most significant contribution to
                total hydrocarbon losses in the petroleum industry is
                associated with the necessary use of vast storage
                facilities.  The National Petroleum Council has shown that
                the entire industry maintains a total storage capacity of at
                least two barrels for each barrel of actual inventory.  This
                is the minimum amount necessary to insure continuous
                refinery operations and to provide for seasonal variations
                in product demands.  The magnitude of hydrocarbon emissions
                from storage tanks depends on many factors including the
                physical properties of the material being stored, climatic
                and meteorological conditions, and the size, color, and
                condition of the tank.


                                           2-123

-------
Control Technology and Costs. Control technology and costs
for the three major emission sources in the petroleum
industry are outlined in the following paragraphs.

  Catalytic Cracking. The removal of particulate matter
(catalyst fines) from the regenerator gas can be
accomplished with high-efficiency electrostatic
precipitators.  Although some reduction in carbon monoxide
and unburned hydrocarbons can be achieved by increasing the
regeneration temperature, essentially complete removal of
these species will require carbon monoxide boilers.  The
additional combustion which occurs in the carbon monoxide
boiler generates substantial quantities of heat, which the
boiler recovers as steam; the value of this steam helps
offset the cost of the equipment.  Equipment for controlling
emission of particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and
hydrocarbons is commercially available and is already in use
in some catalytic cracking units.

In 1971, about 29 percent of the fluid catalytic cracking
capacity was equipped with electrostatic precipitators and
about 69 percent was equipped with carbon monoxide boilers.
These boilers are often economically justified by the steam
which they generate, especially for large catalytic cracking
units.  Increasing energy costs are making carbon monoxide
boilers more attractive for this reason.  In some existing
refineries, the additional steam generated by the addition
of a carbon monoxide boiler cannot be used, but new
refineries can be designed to take advantage of this means
of reducing their total energy requirement.

The catalyst fines collected by the electrostatic
precipitator must be disposed of as solid waste.  Costs for
this phase of disposal were calculated using the average
particulate emission factor for fluid cat crackers  (110
kg/1000 bbl fresh feed), a precipitator efficiency of 93
percent, and an operating factor of 0.913  (8,000 hr/yr).

Annualized control costs and control data are detailed in
Table 3-15-1.

  Fuel Gas Burning. The control technology involves
installing additional amine scrubbing facilities where
required, installing Claus plants on the 30 percent of
capacity now without them, and installing tail-gas treatment
facilities on all the Claus plants.  The tail-gas treatment
facilities increase the overall sulfur recovery from about
95 to 99.8 percent.

The amine solution used in the scrubbing operation cannot be
regenerated and reused indefinitely.  Complex sulfur salts
                           2-12«

-------
are formed which must be purged from the system, and fresh
solution must be added to replace the amine thus lost.  Two
methods are used commercially: one involves continuously
withdrawing a purge stream, and the other involves using the
solution for a period of time and then completely replacing
it.  For analyzing salt disposal costs, an equivalent daily
purge rate relationship of 1.7* pounds per day amine purge
per long ton per day sulfur recovery was used.

The credit for the sulfur recovered in these processes is an
important economic consideration and is also difficult to
define.  In the coming years, the reduction of allowable
sulfur emissions from refineries, power plants, etc., plus
the increasing sulfur content of the crude oil processed
will combine to cause a very large increase in the
production of sulfur.  This will probably depress the price
of sulfur, but the extent of depression is open to
considerable speculation.  The price level used in this
study was: $15 per metric ton.

Annualized control costs and control data are detailed in
Table 3-15-1.

  Hydrocarbon Storage. The EPA new source pollution
regulations require that petroleum products having vapor
pressures of 78 to 570 milliliters of mercury be stored in
floating roof tanks or their equivalent.  There is also a
requirement for products with vapor pressure greater than
570 milliliters of mercury, but this will cause no
additional expense since the control methods are presently
used for these products.  Thus, this report is concerned
only with the storage of crude oil, jet fuel, and gasoline.

The typical industry practice  (1968) involved a distribution
of 75 percent floating-roof and 25 percent fixed-roof tanks;
this distribution is felt to be applicable for crude oil and
jet fuel.  For gasoline, the economics of evaporation
control have led to a distribution more like 90 percent
floating-roof and 10 percent fixed-roof.  Thus, the cost of
meeting the new regulations is the difference between the
cost of using 100 percent floating-roof tanks for these
products and the cost of using the above distributions.

The tank costs were based on quotations obtained in October
of 1974 from representative vendors.  These quotations were
for a typical midwestern location.  The following items were
added to the basic tank cost:
                           2-125

-------
                    Item

           Excavation and dike
           Foundation
           Electrical grounding
           Piping, etc.
           Painting

           Total
Tank Cost (%)

   25
    6
    3
   10
    3

   47
These percentages were taken from a report by the MSA
Research Corporation; no land cost was included.  Quotations
were obtained for both fixed-roof and floating-roof tanks.
The difference between these two is then the differential
cost applicable to new tanks.  Since the desired time basis
for this study is mid-1973, these costs were adjusted back
to that time using the Nelson refinery cost index.
Quotations were also obtained for converting existing fixed-
roof tanks to floating-roof by retrofitting an internal
floating cover.  This is the conversion method which will
evidently be used, since it costs only about half as much as
removing the fixed roof and replacing it with a floating
roof.
                           2-126

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Environmental Protection Agency by Sobotka 5
Co., Inc. (S6C)1.  This analysis was conducted in somewhat
greater depth than, and subsequent to the general data
gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The S&C estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental Investment     (1975-1983)   1,280
                             (1974-1977)     740

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  SEAS forecasts an investment costs of 5783
million for 1975-1983.  This assumes that 46 percent of the
required pollution control equipment was installed by 1975.
The total cost of meeting the standard over 1972-1979 is
$1,223 million.  Thus, the assumed time pattern of capital
expenditures of the two studies greatly affects the cost
comparisons for a particular span of years.

The SSC study developed its cost data for two main
categories—large and small plants.  The data for both
groups was based upon a representative sample, and then
extrapolated for the whole group.  SEAS used the model plant
concept, with several different model plants for three main
categories: catalytic cracking, fuel gas burning, and
petroleum storage.  These assumptions are listed in Table 3-
15-1 and process characteristics.
» "Economic Impact of EPA's Regulations on the Petroleum
  Refining Industry", Sobotka & Co., Inc., April, 1976.
                           2-127

-------

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FERROALLOY INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. In 1972, there
were 26 companies operating an estimated t* ferroalloy
plants.  The industry is composed of steel companies,
chemical and mineral companies having access to particular
alloying elements, and specialist producers of ferroalloys.
Five companies use the metallothermic process to make
specialty ferroalloys containing molybdenum, tungsten,
vanadium, columbium or titanium.  Six companies are involved
in making ferrophosphorus.  The remaining companies use the
submerged-arc electric furnace to produce about one-haIf of
the ferromanganese and virtually all of the silicon- and
chromium-containing ferroalloys used in steelmaking.

Alloying elements required for making different steels are
often added in the form of ferroalloys which contain iron
and at least one other element.  The ferroalloys are named
according to the major alloying element: ferromanganese
contains manganese as the additive; ferrochromesilicon
contains both chromium and silicon.  Some additives in which
the iron content is very small  (such as silicomanganese and
silicon-chrome-manganese) are also considered as
ferroalloys.

Ferroalloys are made by three methods with submerged-arc
electric furnaces producing most of the output.  Three types
of furnaces are adapted to the three production methods:
open furnaces, semicovered furnaces, and sealed furnaces.
Metalothermic reduction furnace production has been included
with electric furnace production in the absence of
sufficient information on number, location, emissions, and
air-pollution-control methods.  Two domestic producers use
blast furnaces for making ferromanganese and occasionally
ferrosilicon.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Particulate emissions are
generated during the handling of the ores, fluxes, and
reductants used in the production of ferroalloys.
Particulate and gaseous emissions are continuously evolved
during smelting operations.  Fuming occurs when the
ferroalloy is poured, the amount varying with the particular
ferroalloy.  Submerged-arc electric furnaces of the open or
open-hood type are required because of the formation of
crusts with certain ferroalloys; these crusts must be broken
mechanically.  With semicovered or low-hood type submerged-
arc furnaces, the charge is fed to the furnace through
openings around the electrodes.  In open-hood furnaces, the
collection hood is raised sufficiently to provide room for
charging between the hood and the charging floor; in
semicovered furnaces, the hood is lower and water-cooled.
                           2-130

-------
Open and semicovered furnaces produce greater emissions than
sealed furnaces, which are used to prevent the escape of
emissions and to minimize the influx of air.

Metallic silicon and aluminum are very strong deoxidizers
which are used under high-temperature conditions to reduce
the mineral oxides of molybdenum, titanium, zirconium, and
similar metals in metalothermic reduction furnaces.

In blast furnace smelting operations, particulates and
gaseous emissions are carried out of the furnace in the same
off-gas stream.

Control Technology and Costs. Baghouses, electrostatic
precipitators  (ESP), and high-energy scrubbers are all used
to control emissions from submerged-arc electric furnaces.
Fumes evolving from the casting of ferromanganese in blast
furnace operations must also be controlled by baghouses.

A total of 155 ferroalloy furnaces were used in developing
the model furnaces used to produce cost estimates; however,
only 56 furnaces could be identified as to specific
ferroalloy produced and the furnace electric power rating.
The distribution for these 56 furnaces was assumed to
represent the size distribution for all the existing
furnaces.  Emissions from ferroalloy furnaces are related to
the furnace electric power input.

A relationship between furnace power input and production
was used to estimate furnace capacity,  capacities of open-
hood and low-hood electric furnaces were related to the
capacities of baghouse, scrubber, and electrostatic
precipitator control devices required to satisfy the
requirements.

To estimate these air pollution control expenditures, the  .
existing ferroalloy industry was divided into three
segments.  These segments are shown in Table 3-16-1 under
the Process Characteristics heading.  Annualized production
and cost control data is presented in Table 3-16-1.
                           2-131

-------
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IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRIES

Production Characteristics and Capacities. The iron and
steel industry production operation includes the following
major sequential processes: recycling (sintering), coke
production, and steelmaking.  There are three types of
steelmaking: open-hearth (OH), basic-oxygen furnace (BOF),
and electric-arc furnace (EAF).

Sintering is the process by which iron-ore fines and
reclaimed iron dusts, sludges, and scale generated in
various iron and steelmaking processes are agglomerated and
prepared for charging in blast furnaces.  Coking is the
process used to convert suitable grades of coal to
metallurgical coke for charging in the blast furnace.
Blast-furnace operation is a smelting process by which iron
ore is reduced to pig iron; open-hearth, basic oxygen, and
electric-arc furnaces are used to make steel.

  Sintering Plants. There are 15 companies operating 43
recycling or sintering plants ranging in size from about
180,000 metric tons per year to 1.3 million metric tons per
year.  Sintering plants have been grouped into 14 categories
based on size and applicable pollution control regulations.
Sintering consists of agglomerating ore fines and reclaimed
iron-containing dusts, sludge, and scale generated in
various iron and steelmaking processes.  Sinter is made by
mixing these fines with limestone and coke  (or anthracite
coal), charging the mixture onto a continuous traveling
grate, and igniting the mixture.  Air is blown through the
mixture to support combustion.  The sintering is completed
by the time the end of the grate is reached.  The sinter
clinker is cooled, crushed, and screened to size for
charging to the blast furnace.

  Coke Plants.  The vast bulk of the coke production is
owned by iron and steel companies  (or affiliates).  About 10
percent of the coke is produced in merchant plants for sale
in the open market to foundries, other industrial users, or
for internal consumption for other than steel-producing
purposes.

Coking coals are received at a coal preparation facility
where they are finely pulverized and mixed in the required
proportions to meet specifications for the blast furnace or
for other end uses.  The prepared coal mixture is delivered
to storage bunkers above the coke oven batteries.  Measured
quantities of the mixture are withdrawn from the bunkers and
carried to individual ovens for charging.  The coal is
heated in the absence of air for a period of 11 to 18 hours
at temperatures of from 900° to 1100°C to convert the coal


                           2-133

-------
to coke having the desired properties.  During the coking
cycle, volatile constituents and noncondensible gases are
distilled and transferred via collecting mains to the
byproducts plant for the recovery of the gas and various
chemicals.  When the coking cycle is completed, the doors on
the ends of the oven are removed and a ram pushes the
incandescent coke from the oven into a quench car.  The hot
coke is transported to a quench tower where it is cooled
under a direct water spray.  The coke is then crushed and
screened for use in the blast furnace or for other purposes.
The fines from the crushing operation are used as a fuel in
sintering operations, or are sold commercially.

  Open-Hearth Steelmaking. This method is the oldest of the
three steelmaking processes presently being used to produce
raw steel.  Open-hearth steel production has declined from a
peak of 89 million metric tons in 196<* to about 36 million
metric tons in 1973.  In 1973, there were an estimated 18
operating open-hearth shops in the integrated iron and steel
industry.  It is doubtful that any new plants will be
constructed.  Furnace capacities range from 50 to 300 net
metric tons of steel.  For this report, the open-hearth
plants have been grouped into five model sizes as follows:
Average Size
(1,000 metric
tons/year)

   283. a
   982.6
  1360.5
  18U.O
  3099.0
         Capacity
No.     (million metric    Total
Plants  tons/year)          Capacity

2           0.57            2.0
3           2.95           10.a
6           8.16           28.9
1           7.26           25.7
3           9.30           32.9
The open-hearth furnace is a shallow-hearth furnace that can
be alternately fired from either end.  The process consists
of charging scrap, fluxes, and molten pig iron into the
furnace where the required melting and refining operations
are performed to produce the desired analysis of steel.
Firing of an open hearth can be done with a variety of
fuels, depending on availability, cost, and sulfur content
in the fuel.

  Basic-Oxygen Furnace Steelmaking. EOF was first used to
produce steel in the United States in 1955.  By 1965,
economic replacement of the open-hearth furnace by the EOF
had been well established.  BOF steelmaking expanded rapidly
to about 76 million metric tons-in 1973.  Recently, a newer
process called Q-BOF has been used for commercial production
                           2-134

-------
of steel.  This new process has been included with the EOF
process for the purposes of this report.  In 1973, there
were 19 companies operating 38 EOF plants, ranging in size
from i»50,000 metric tons to 1.3 million metric tons of
annual capacity.  For the purposes of this report, these
plants have been grouped into four model sizes as follows:
Average Size                Capacity
(net metric         No.     (million metric    Total
tons/year)          Plants   tons/year)        Capacity (%)

   68-127           10          11.2            m.7
  136-172            5           8.1            10.7
  181-2«0           20          U6.0            60.7
  263-295            3          10.5            13.9
In BOF steelmaking, the pear-shaped, open-top vessel is
positioned at a 45-degree angle and charged with the
required amount of steel scrap, molten pig iron, and other
materials.  The vessel is vertically positioned and high-
purity oxygen is blown into the molten bath through a water-
cooled oxygen lance positioned above the bath.  Products of
the oxygen reaction with the carbon, the silicon, and the
manganese in the charge pass off as carbon monoxide and
carbon dioxide gases, and manganese and silicon oxides in
the slag.  When the required content of carbon, silicon, and
manganese is obtained in the melt, oxygen blowing is
stopped, and ferroalloys are added as needed to attain the
desired final chemical composition of the steel.  The molten
steel is then poured into a ladle for transfer to subsequent
operations.

  Electric-Arc Furnace Steelmaking. This process has long
been the established unit for the production of alloy and
stainless steels.  More recently, it has been widely used in
mini-steel plants to make plain carbon steels for local
markets.  In 1972, electric-arc furnace production amounted
to 1.5 million metric tons of stainless steel.  In 1973
there were almost 100 companies operating electric-arc
furnace plants ranging in size from 9 thousand metric tons
to 1.2 million metric tons annual capacity.  The total
electric-arc furnace production in 1973 was about 25 million
metric tons.  For the purposes of this report, electric-arc
furnaces have been grouped into six model sizes as follows:
                           2-135

-------
Average Size
 (1,000 metric
tons/year)

   45-77
   82-127
  136-204
  218-340
  363-544
  907-1197
            Capacity
No.         (million metric
Plants      tons/year)

 11             1.0
 26             2.5
 21             3.4
 11             3.1
 21             9.1
  6             6.1
Total
Capacity
    4,
   10.
   13.
   12.
   36,
(*)
   24.2
The electric-arc furnace is a short, cylindrical-shaped
furnace having a rather shallow hearth.  Three carbon
electrodes project through the fixed or moveable roof into
the furnace.  Charge materials consist of prepared scrap,
although one or two electric furnace shops make use of
molten pig iron as part of the charge.  After charging, the
melting operation is started by turning on the electric
power to the electrodes which are in contact with the scrap.
Electrical resistance of the scrap produces heating and
eventual melting of the scrap.  Additional scrap is added,
and refining is accomplished by blowing high-purity oxygen
into the molten scrap to remove carbon and silicon.
Ferroalloys are added as needed to attain the desired final
chemical composition of the steel.  Power is shut off and
the molten metal is tapped into a ladle.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. The processes employed in
producing steel are shown in Figure 3-17-1.  Five of these
processes are important generators of air emissions, and
therefore they must be controlled to meet State
Implementation Plans and Federal New Source Performance
Standards.  Fugitive emissions are not considered in this
study.

  Sintering Plants. The .emissions associated with sinter
plant operations are particulates that (1)  become entrained
in the combustion air as it is drawn through the sinter
mixture into the windbox, (2)  are generated during the
cooling operation, and  (3)  are generated during the crushing
and screening operations.  Sulfur contained in the fuel is
not considered to be a major problem, although any sulfur
present in the sinter mix or in combustion fuel will be
emitted as sulfur oxides.
                           2-136

-------
           Figure 3-17-1.
Iron and steel Production Processes
                                          POLLUTANTS

SIN
SINTER
CUNKER
r
OPEN-HEA
I



FERING OR RECYCLING

•r

COKE PRODUCTION

JMETAL Cu RGI CAL~COKE~J
BLAST FURNACE _}
r-—



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K™ OXYGEN
;CTRIC- ^
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SULFIDE

«.
                2-137

-------
  Coke Plants. Emissions from the production of coke occur
as particulates, hydrogen sulfide, sulfur oxides, carbon
monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides.  Particulate
emissions occur from the following sources: coal receiving
and stockpiling, coal grinding and handling, charging of
coke ovens, pushing the coke from the ovens, and coke
quenching.  Gaseous emissions occur during the following
operations: charging the coke ovens, the coking cycle,  and
subsequent combustion of coke-oven gases.

  Open-Hearth Furnace Steelmaking. Particulates are the
primary emissions from open-hearth-furnace operations.
Emissions of iron oxide occur during the time the scrap is
melted and large quantities of iron, silicon, and manganese
oxides are formed and carried into the exhaust system of the
furnace where high-purity oxygen is blown into the steel
bath to remove the carbon.  Gaseous emissions are largely
carbon dioxide, but sulfur oxides may result through use of
sulfur-containing fuels.  If the scrap used in the charge
contains combustibles, greater volumes of gaseous
contaminants will be produced.

  Basic-Oxygen Furnace Steelmaking. Particulates and carbon
monoxide are major emissions in EOF Steelmaking.
Particulate emissions occur at the hot-metal transfer
stations, the flux and alloy material-handling and transfer
points, and the EOF vessel.  Carbon monoxide and carbon
dioxide are emitted at the EOF vessel.

  Electric-Arc Furnace Steelmaking. Particulates are the
primary emissions released by electric-arc furnace
Steelmaking.  Charging, scrap melting, oxygen blowing,  and
tapping are major sources of particulate emissions.  Blowing
the molten steel with high-purity oxygen produces the
highest emission rates.  Emissions from the scrap charge and
other operations are similar to those from other Steelmaking
processes and constitute the larges portion of the total
emissions.

Control Technology and Costs. The following paragraphs
contain a brief analysis of pollution control methods used
in each process of the iron and steel industry.

  Sintering Plants.'Electrostatic precipitators, high-energy
scrubbers, and baghouses are used to control the
particulates originating from the sinter strand.  Dry
cyclones and baghouses are used to control particulates from
other emission sources.  Developments in blast-furnace
technology which require additions of limestone and dolomite
to the sinter mix make continued use of electrostatic
precipitators problematical because of the difference in
                           2-138

-------
              electrical properties between limestone dusts and iron-
              containing dusts.  Installation of high-energy wet scrubbers
              may be required as replacements for some existing
              electrostatic precipitator installations.

                Coke Plants. The technology for controlling emissions from
              coke ovens is still in the developmental stage; definitive
              control measures have not been established.  Scrubbers are
              being used as the principal control technique for
              particulates in the control systems now under development.
.              In addition to air-pollution-control devices, improved coke
              oven design and improved operating practices (such as
              sequence charging) are factors offering significant means of
              control.

j                Open-Hearth-Furnace Steelmaking. Electrostatic
    f          precipitators and high-energy scrubbers are used in
    1          controlling emissions from open-hearth furnaces.

                Basic-Oxygen Furnace Steelmaking. Electrostatic
              precipitators and high-energy scrubbers are the principal
              control systems applied to the EOF.  Baghouses have been
              suggested for use in the United States and have been tried
              in Europe.  Baghouses are used for collecting particulates
              at the hot-metal stations, and the flux and ferroalloy
1              handling locations.

  !            Table 3-17-1 shows the estimated growth of the steel
              industry in terms of sales, production, and capacity in
 >  ',           SEAS.  It is estimated that the open-hearth process of
              making steel will decline in importance as the basic oxygen
              and electric-arc processes increase in importance.

 >•            The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
              provided; to the Agency by Temple, Barker & Sloane,
        :      Inc., (TBS)1.  This analysis was conducted in somewhat
              greater depth than, and subsequent to the general data
        i      gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
              calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
              However, time and resource constraints prevented
              incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
              the SEAS model procedure.  The TBS estimates are as follows
              (in million 1975 dollars):

                                           75-77       75-83

                Incremental Investment     2,100       3,300
                Incremental O&M              200       2,300
                                         2-139

-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences bewteen
these cost estimates and the newer data are that OPE
estimates are based on 1983 capacity while SEAS is based on
1972 production levels.  There are also substantial
differences in industry definition between the two studies.

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculations are presented
in Table 3-17-1.  The TBS study includes costs associated
with fugitive emissions and "other air." SEAS confines its
analysis to stack emissions.  Fugitive emissions account for
HO percent of capital expenditures in 1975-1983 for the TBS
study.  TBS credits the 1974 Cost of Clean Air Report as
being a basis for the stack emission control costs of $1.65
billion over 1975-1983.  SEAS forecasts a total figure of
$3.33 billion for meeting the standards by ,1979.  The
assumed phasing of expenditures has almost half of this
occuring before 1975, with a resultant estimate of $1.80
billion in 1975-1979.  This includes costs associated with
expansion.  Allowing for expansion costs to 1983 gives a
figure of $2.27 billion.  SEAS also bases its calculations
upon research done for the 1971 Cost.of Clean Air Report
with revisions and modifications to assumptions by the same
group that did' the original Clean Air Report computations.
Thus, much of the differences between the SEAS figures and
those of TBS can be attributed to differences in assumed
growth patterns and phasing of capital expenditures.
  "Economic Analysis of Proposed and Interim Final Effluent
  Guidelines, Integrated Iron and Steel Industry",
  Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc., March, 1976.
                           2-140

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IRON FOUNDRIES INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Iron foundries
may be found in almost all urban areas.  The economies of
scale for the industry do not prohibit the continued
existence of relatively small foundries.  Because many of
the foundries are operated in conjunction with steel making
facilities, iron foundries tend to be concentrated in the
major steel producing states:  Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan,
Illinois, and Alabama.

Iron foundries range from primitive, unmechanized hand
operations to modern, highly-mechanized operations.  Captive
plants (owned or controlled by other businesses) are more
likely to be mechanized and better equipped with emission-
control equipment than are noncaptive plants.

In 1973, about 6 percent of the 1,432 plants were classified
as large (over 500 employees), 29 percent as medium  (100 to
500 employees), and 65 percent as small (less than 100
employees).

The major markets for iron castings include motor vehicles,
farm machinery, and industries that build equipment for the
construction, mining, oil, metalworking, and railroad
industries.  Captive plants have the capability of
economical production of large lots of closely related
castings.  Most of the largest plants are captive and do not
generally produce for the highly competitive open market.

Castings for machine parts, automotive parts, and soil pipe
are produced from both pig iron and scrap.  Cupola,
electric-arc, electric-induction, and reverberatory furnaces
are used.  In 1973, 79 percent of the production was by
cupolas, 12 percent by electric-arc furnaces, and the
remainder by induction and reverberatory furnaces.  The
latter two types emit relatively small quantities of
pollutants and require little or no emissions-control
equipment.

The cupola furnace is a vertical, cylindrical furnace in
which the heat for melting the iron is provided by injecting
air to burn coke which is in direct contact with the charge.
An electric-arc furnace is an enclosed, cup-shaped
refractory shell that contains the charge.  Three graphite
or carbon electrodes extend downward from the roof.  An
electric arc between the electrodes and the charge generates
the required heat.  The cupola melts the charge
continuously, while the arc furnace operates in a batch
mode.
                           2-1U3

-------
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from cupolas are
carbon monoxide, particulates, and oil vapors.  Particulate
emissions arise from dirt on the metal charge and from fines
in the coke and limestone charge.  Hydrocarbon emissions
arise primarily from partial combustion and distillation of
oil from greasy scrap charged to the furnace, but their
control is not costed in this report because the emissions
are small.  Arc furnaces produce the same kind of emissions
to a lesser degree because of the absence of coke and
limestone in the charge.

The particulate emission factor for uncontrolled cupola
operation is taken to be 8.5 kg per metric ton.  The best
available estimate of the particulate emission factor for
uncontrolled arc furnaces is taken to be 5 kg per metric
ton.

An uncontrolled cupola generates approximately 150 kg carbon
monoxide per metric ton of charge.  Half of this carbon
monoxide burns in the stack.  On this basis, the estimated
emission factor for carbon monoxide discharged from an
uncontrolled cupola is approximately 75 kg per metric ton of
charge.  Uncontrolled arc furnaces produce negligible
quantities of carbon monoxide.

Control Technology and Costs. In industrial practice, large
cupolas use high-energy scrubbers to control the emission of
particulates to acceptable levels.  Medium sized cupolas can
use either a high-energy scrubber or a baghouse.  For small
cupolas and arc furnaces, baghouses are preferred.

High-energy scrubbers usually are operated at a particulate
collection efficiency of 95 percent.  This efficiency can be
increased to 99 percent by increasing the pressure drop.
Fabric filters  (baghouses) have an efficiency of 98 percent.
Electrostatic precipitators also have a high efficiency rate
of 96 percent.

Afterburners are used to control carbon monoxide emissions
from cupolas.  The efficiency of afterburners to control
carbon monoxide emission is generally taken to be 91
percent.

Table 3-18-1 presents annualized production and cost control
data for the industry; iron castings are made using either
the cupola or electric-arc process.  To estimate the costs
of controlling air pollution from this industry, the five
processes were listed individually for cost-comparison
evaluation.

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 STEEL FOUNDRIES  INDUSTRY

 Production Characteristics  and Capacities. Two  types  of
 steel are produced from steel  foundries:  carbon steel
 castings and  alloy-stainless steel castings, carbon steel
 representing  90  percent of  the productive capacity.   The
 electric-arc  furnace is the established  equipment  for the
 melting of steels  that are  subsequently  poured  into molds  to
 make castings.   Castings  may be in a semi-finished form that
 requires considerable machining before it can be used in
,other components,  or it may be a high quality product that
 requires a. minimum of additional work before subsequent use.
 Production of steel  castings closely parallels  the
 production of steel.

 In  determining control costs,  the foundries producing large
 castings were grouped with  the foundries producing carbon-
 steel castings on  a  one-shift  basis.

 Emission Sources and Pollutants. Particulates comprise
 almost 100 percent of the emissions occurring during  the
 production of steel  for castings.  Minor amounts of carbon
 monoxide, nitrogen oxides,  and hydrocarbons may be emitted.
 Most of the particulate emissions, which occur  during the
 charging operation,  are carried upward by the thermal gas
 currents created by  the hot furnace;  these emissions  are
 generated during the charging  operation  and are the most
 difficult to  control.

 Control Technology and Costs.  The allowable emissions of
 particulates  per unit of  process weight  per hour under State
 Implementation Plans (Pennsylvania standards used  as
 typical) and  Federal New  Source Performance Standards for
 electric arc  steelmaking  were  used as guidelines in
 establishing  the level! of control likely to be  required for
.electric-arc  furnace steel  foundries, and the subsequent
 costs.

 Baghouses are the  only reported means for the control of
 emissions from steel foundry electric-arc furnaces.   One of
 the probable  reasons for  not using scrubbers or
 electrostatic precipitators is the lack  of space for
 installing the required water  treatment  facilities in the
 case of scrubbers,  and a  reluctance on the part of the
 smaller foundry  operators to get involved with  electrostatic
 precipitators

 The inventory of electric-arc  furnace steel foundries used
 in  the report is based on information in two foundry
 directories and  information in the published literature.   A
                            2-116

-------
few steel foundries still use open hearth furnaces but these
are rapidly being phased out of use.

Development of control costs for steel foundries is
complicated by several factors: foundries do not operate the
same number of hours during the year, different furnaces
sizes are used in a single plant, some foundries specialize
in plain-carbon steel castings, and some foundries produce
only those castings that can be produced in large production
runs, while a small number produce large, complicated
castings on a one-or two-shift basis.  Table 3-19-1 shows
the annualized summary information for steel foundries.
                           2-1U7

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PRIMARY ALUMINUM INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. The domestic
primary aluminum industry is presently comprised of 12
companies operating 31 reduction facilities in 16 states.
Three companies, Alcoaf Reynolds, and Kaiser, operate about
two-thirds of the total capacity.  Plants tend to be located
in areas where cheap electrical power is available.  The
plant-size distribution for the industry is as follows:
  Size Range                 No.
  (1,000 Metric Tons/Year)   Plants            Capacity (%)

        0-90.7                  6                   8.8
     90.8-136                  11                  28.1
    136.1-190                   8                  30.8
      191-254                   6                  32.3

                               31                 100.0
Aluminum is one of the most abundant of the elements and
when measured either in quantity or value, its use exceeds
that of any other primary metal except steel.  It is used to
some extent in virtually all segments of the economy, but
its principal uses have been in transportation, building and
construction, electrical industry, containers and packaging,
consumer durables, and machinery and equipment.  Growth rate
Of aluminum industry in the United States has averaged 7
percent in recent years.

Bauxite ore  (typically containing 50-55 percent alumina) is
the principal source of aluminum.  Alumina is extracted from
bauxite by any one of a number of variations of the Bayer
process.  In turn, alumina is dissolved in molten cryolite
and reduced to aluminum by electrolysis in the universally-
used Hall-Heroult aluminum reduction cells, which are
connected in series to form a potline.

The aluminum reduction plant may be classified according to
the type of anodes used in the cells; there are two major
types based on how they are replaced.  Prebaked anodes are
replaced intermittently, and Soderberg anodes are replaced
continuously.  In the Soderberg continuous system, an anode
paste is continuously supplied to a rectangular metal shell
suspended above the cell.  As the anode shell descends, it
is baked by the heat of the cell.  The two types of
Soderberg anodes use different support methods: a Vertical
Stud System supported on vertical current-carrying pins
                           2-1U9

-------
(studs), and a Horizontal Stud System supported by pins
which are inclined slightly from the horizontal.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. All three alternative
processes currently used to produce aluminum release
particulates which must be controlled.

Of the three anode systems in use, prebaked, horizontal
Soderberg, and vertical Soderberg, the vertical Soderberg
system emits the lowest quantity of particulates, and the
prebaked and horizontal Soderberg systems are higher in
pollutant emissions,  on the other hand, the prebaked system
is easiest to control, the vertical Soderberg somewhat more
difficult, and the horizontal Soderberg the most difficult
to control, leading to a gradual phasing out of the latter
two processes.

Control Technology and Costs. In this analysis, it was
assumed that 98 percent control of particulates would be
sufficient to comply with ambient standards in all cases.
New sources are assumed to be of the prebaked process only,
and it is further assumed that the New source Performance
Standards for fluorides will be met by the same control
processes applied for partjlculate control at no additional
cost.  Assumed control processes for the three production
processes are shown below:
  CellType

  Prebaked
  Horizontal
     Soderberg
Primary Control
Secondary Control
  Vertical
     Soderberg
Primary Collection   None Needed
(Hoods and Ducting),
Plus Fluidized-Bed
Dry Scrubber
Primary Collection,
Wet Electrostatic
Precipitatbr, Spray
Tower, or Fluidized-
Bed Dry Scrubber
(experimental)

Primary Collection,
Wet-Electrostatic
Precipitator or
Spray Tower
Spray Screen and
Water Treatment
Spray Screen and
Water Treatment
Table 3-20-1 shows the estimated growth of primary aluminum
production.  Note that the prebaked anode process is the
dominant one in existence now, and that all new plants are
                           2-150

-------
assumed to employ this process.  Two new production
processes, the Alcoa and the Toth, which are claimed to be
essentially non-polluting, are now being investigated.  If
successfulr costs for new sources beyond 1980 might be
substantially lower than indicated.
                           2-151

-------
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SECONDARY ALUMINUM INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Aluminum has
become one of the most important metals in industry; only
iron surpasses it in tonnages used.  Major uses of the metal
are in the construction industry, aircraft, motor vehicles,
electrical equipment and supplies, beverage cans, and
fabricated metal products which include a wide variety of
home consumer products.  The automotive industry is a large
user of secondary aluminum ingot.

Secondary aluminum ingot is produced to specification;
melting to specification is achieved mainly by segrating the
incoming scrap into alloy types.  The magnesium content can
be removed with a chlorine gas treatment in a reverberatory
furnace.

For the purpose of this report, the secondary aluminum
industry is defined as that industry which produces
secondary aluminum ingot to chemical specifications from
aluminum scrap and sweated pig.  The industry is viewed as
consisting of secondary aluminum smelters excluding primary
aluminum companies, non-integrated fabricators, and scrap
dealers.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The most serious emission
sources during secondary aluminum smelting are:  the drying
of oil borings and turnings, the sweating furnace, and the
reverberatory furnace.  Emissions from the drying process
are vaporized oils, paints, vinyls, etc; the sweating
furnace produces vaporized fluxes, fluorides, etc; and the
reverberatory furnace emissions are similar to the other two
plus hydrogen chloride, aluminum chloride, and magnesium
chloride from the chlorine gas treatment used to remove
magnesium.  As of 1970, an estimated 25 percent of
chlorination station emissions were controlled,  and it is
estimated that by 1980, 80 percent will be controlled.

The several processes that cause emissions during the
operation of a reverberatory furnace must be understood to
calculate control costs properlyj they are:

  •  Emissions at the forewell.  Secondary smelters charge
     scrap directly into the forewell of the reverberatory
     furnace, and any oil, paint, vinyl, grease, etc., on
     the scrap vaporizes.   The emissions from the charging
     process vary greatly with the material charged.
     Quantitative data on forewell emissions or  the need for
     control are not available and costs or possible costs
     cannot be estimated.
                           2-153

-------
  •  Emissions from the bath.  During the time the aluminum
     bath is molten, it is covered with a flux to protect it
     from oxidation.

  *  Emissions caused by chlorination.  The magnesium
     content of aluminum can be reduced by chlorination, but
     chlorination produces chloride emissions.  Particulate
     emissions from the chlorination process are 500
     kilograms per metric ton of chlorine used.  Maximum
     magnesium removal requires about 18 kilograms of
     chlorine per metric ton of aluminum which has an
     emission rate of 9 kilograms of particulates per metric
     ton of aluminum.  Magnesium removal is practiced by
     plants representing 92 percent of the estimated
     industry capacity.  A small portion of these plants use
     aluminum fluoride fluxing for magnesium removal rather
     than chlorine.  This report assumes that control costs
     for these few plants are similar to those that use
     chlorination.  Wet scrubbing is the usual means of
     controlling chlorination station emissions; recent
     innovations on a dry control process are being tested.

Control Technology and Costs. Dryer emissions are known to
exist and in many cases are treated with afterburners;
however, there is insufficient data relating to the drying
operations to permit evaluations of possible costs that
might be expended to meet air-quality specifications.

Sweating furnace emissions, fluoride from fluxes, organic
materials, oils, etc., can be controlled by using
afterburners, followed by a wet scrubber or baghouse, for
which control costs have been reported.  However, no data is
available on the number, capacity, or location of sweating
furnaces.  Thus, realistic estimate'of control costs cannot
be made.  Industry costs and operating data are included in
Table 3-21-1.
                           2-15H

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PRIMARY COPPER INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Copper is one of
the most important of the nonferrous metals, surpassed only
by iron in ore tonnage produced in the United States.  Its
extensive use depends chiefly upon its electrical and heat
conductivity, corrosion resistance, ductility, and the
toughness of its alloys.  Mechanical properties (and
sometimes special properties) are enhanced by alloying with
zinc to form brass, with tin to form bronze, with aluminum
or silicon to form the higher strength bronzes, with
beryllium to form high strength-high conductivity bronzes,
with nickel to form corrosion resistant alloys, and with
lead to form bearing metals.

Principal users of copper include the electrical,
electronic, and allied industries for manufacturing power
transmission lines, other electrical conductors, and
machinery.  The automobile industry (radiators, wiring, and
bearings) and building-construction industry  (tubing,
plumbing) are the second- and third-largest consumers of
copper in the United states.

Copper ore is either surface or underground mined,
concentrated by ore-beneficiation techniques, then sent to
the smelter.  Processing of copper concentrates at a smelter
involves the'following operations.  Roasting is normally
used to dry the finely ground concentrates and to remove
some sulfur, arsenic, antimony and selenium impurities.
Roasting is frequently bypassed in modern smelters because
better concentration methods remove free pyrite and permit
the substitution of simple dryers for roasters at some
smelters.  The roasted concentrate is treated in a
reverberatory furnace to produce an intermediate material
called matte, which nominally contains copper, iron, and
sulfur.  The matte is converted to impure blister copper by
blowing with air of an air-oxygen mixture in a vessel called
a converter to remove the sulfur and the iron.  Removal of
the impurities from blister copper is sometimes limited to
fire refining, in which the impurities are removed in a
furnace by volatilization and oxidation.  More often, it,
entails a two-step procedure: fire refining to produce
electrodes for further refining by electrolytic methods.

The principal sectors of the primary copper industry
 (mining, smelting, refining, fabricating and marketing) are
dominated in varying degrees by three large, vertically-
integrated companies.  The plant size distribution for 15
active smelter operations, based on equivalent roaster
charge, is shown in the tabulation below:
                           2-156

-------
        Capacity Range
         (1,000 metric       No.
         tons/year)          Plants

             0-181             1
           182-363             H
           36U-5U4             H
           5U5-816             3
           817-907             3
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from coppper
smelters are primarily particulates and sulfur oxides from
the roaster, reverberatory, and converter furnaces.  The
density and continuity of emissions vary with the furnace
type.  Particulates can contain considerable byproduct
credits, particularly noble metals and selenium.
Accordingly, part of the traditional production process is
to recycle particulates up to the limit of economic
viability, between 90 to 99.5 percent control, leaving the
rest to be discharged as uncontrolled emission.

The three processes that produce significant sulfur dioxide
and particulate emissions in the production of primary
copper are shown in Figure 3-22-1.  The roasting process may
be bypassed by modern smelters that have better
concentration methods to remove free pyrite.  Half of the
plants operating in 1971 were able to bypass the roaster
process.
                           2-157

-------
           Figure 3-22-1.
Primary copper Production Processes
                                  POLLUTANTS
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DIOXIDE



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                2-158

-------
Sulfur dioxide is emitted from all three smelter operations;
however, the concentration of sulfur dioxide in the gases
varies considerably among the three.  Sulfur dioxide
concentrations for fluid-solid roasters, reverberatory, and
converter furnaces are 6-10 percent, 0.50-2 percent, and 2-5
percent by volume, respectively.

Control Technology and Costs. In 1971, approximately 95
percent of the particulate emissions were being controlled
from copper smelters because of the economic advantage of
recovering precious metals.  Further removal of particulates
is required to allow the sulfur dioxide control devices to
operate effectively.

It is assumed that most smelters will manufacture sulfuric
acid by the contact process from the sulfur dioxide in the
roaster and the converter gases.  Two major conditions must
be met: (1) the concentration of sulfur dioxide in the gas
stream should be at least U percent by volume, and  (2) the
gas must be practically free of particulate matter to avoid
poisoning the catalyst in the acid plant.  Eleven smelters
already have acid plants.  The one plant in Michigan does
not require an acid plant beause of the low sulfur content
of the ore, and therefore it is not costed out in this
report.

Several methods have been proposed and have been considered
here for the purpose of removing the sulfur dioxide from the
reverberatory gas stream.  These include:

  •  Absorption of sulfur dioxide in dimethylaniline,
     followed by desorption and recovery.
  •  Cominco absorption process in which sulfur dioxide is
     absorbed into an ammonium sulfite solution, which
     yields concentrated sulfur dioxide and an ammonium
     sulfate by-product.
  •  Wet lime scrubbing, whereby the reverberatory furnace
     gases are scrubbed in a slurry of lime and water.
  •  Wet limestone scrubbing, essentially similar to wet
     lime scrubbing except a slurry of limestone is used as
     the scrubbing medium.

Annual!zed control costs and industry operating statistics
are detailed in Table 3-22-1.
                           2-159

-------
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SECONDARY BRASS AND BRONZE INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities. The secondary
brass,and bronze industry may be divided into two segments:
ingot manufacturers and brass mills.  Both segments of the
industry charge scrap into a furnace where it is melted and
alloyed to meet design specifications for chemical
composition.  Ingot manufacturers use either a stationary
reverberatory furnace or a rotary furnace for most of their
production.  Small quantities of special alloys are
processed in crucible or electric induction furnaces.  A few
cupolas exist in which highly oxidized metal, such as
skimmings and slag, is reduced by heating the charge in
contact with coke.  Ingot manufacturing invariably requires
injection of air to refine the scrap.  Brass mills use scrap
that does not require such extensive refining; the channel
induction furnace is the most common type used in these
mills.

The number of ingot manufacturing furnaces in existence in
1972 was calculated to be 122. Of these furnaces, 13 were
large,  29 were medium, and 80 were small.  The large
furnaces produced 50 percent of the total annual ingots,
while the medium furnaces produced 30 percent, and the small
furnaces produced 20 percent.


The capacity of channel induction furnaces for brass mills
ranges front 0.5 to 5 metric tons, with smaller furnaces
being the most common.  It was estimated that there were 35
plants in existence in 1973 with an average of 3.7 furnaces
per plant, or a total of 130 furnaces.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Metallurgical fumes
containing chiefly zinc oxide and lead oxide are the major
emissions from the reverberatory and rotary furnaces that
are used by ingot manufacturers and from the induction
furnaces that are used by the brass mills.  Fly ash, carbon,
and mechanically-produced dust are often present in the
exhaust gases, particularly from the furnaces used by the
ingot manufacturers.  Zinc oxide and lead oxide condense to
form a very fine fume which is difficult to collect.

Control Technology and Costs. Ingot manufacturers use
fabric-filter baghouses, high-energy wet scrubbers, and
electrostatic precipitators because of their high efficiency
in collecting the fine zinc oxide fumes; 67 percent use a
baghouse, 28 percent use a scrubber, and 5 percent use an
electrostatic precipitator.
                           2-161

-------
The collected dust was assumed to have a value of 10 cents
per kilogram, and an average collector efficiency of 97.5
percent.  This value of collected dusts was applied as a
credit to control costs.

Fabric filter baghouses are used on the brass induction
furnaces to collect the particulates.  Investment and annual
costs were obtained from three plants that use furnaces with
capacities ranging from 22 to 32 metric tons per day.  The
average value for the three plants was used for the model
furnace of 25 metric tons per day.  No credit for collected
dust is assumed for brass mills.

Annualized control costs and industry operating statistics
are detailed in Table 3-23-1.
                           2-162

-------
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PRIMARY LEAD INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Lead production
in the United States involves three major steps: mining,
crashing, and grinding of sulfide ores, and benefication to
produce lead concentrates; smelting of the concentrates by
pyr©metallurgical methods to produce impure lead bullion;
and refining the bullion to separate other metal values and
impurities.

The U.S. primary lead industry has some 80 small mining
companies in 14 states who mine and mill their own
concentrates; some of the smaller mines utilize custom
mills.  Smelting and refining of lead in the United States
is done by four companies  (Asarco, St. Joe, Amax, and Bunker
Hill) that operate six smelters and five refineries.  St.
Joe is the only company not involved in custom smelting
(outright purchase of concentrates) or toll smelting
(smelting of concentrates for a fee).

Battery components accounted for 46 percent of the 1.40
million metric tons of lead consumed in 1973.  Gasoline
antiknock additives accounted for 16 percent, pigments 7
percent, ammunition 5 percent, solder 4 percent, cable
covering 3 percent and miscellaneous metal products, such as
castings, weights, and ballast, the remainder.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from lead
smelters are primarily particulates and sulfur dioxide from
two sources:.sintering machines and blast furnaces.  Most of
the sulfur dioxide is removed in the sintering machine; the
density of emissions varies with the source.

Flue-gas particulates include the following metals: as high
as 30 percent lead, arid traces of zinc, antimony, cadmium,
and copper.  In Western smelters, often significant
byproduct credits of noble metals are also emitted; in one
case, over 30 ounces of silver per ton and 0.14 ounce of
gold was recovered.  Thus, there is an economic reason t.o
recover particulates in addition to fume control.  The
emissions from the slag furnaces used in the Western
smelters to recover zinc also include particulates
containing zinc oxide and zinc dust.

Control Technology and Costs. Sulfur oxides and particulates
in sintering machine off-gases are being controlled by the
use of sulfuric acid plants in three of the six U.S.
smelters.  In these smelters, particulate control is
required for effective operation of the acid-plant system.
In the three U.S. smelters .without acid plants, most of the
particulates in the processing off-gases are removed from
                           2-164

-------
 the cooled off-gases in a baghouse prior to  the  stack;
 sulfur oxide  in the off-gases  is  not  controlled.   One  of
 these smelters has an acid plant  which is used only  on the
 off-gases  from a copper converter in  an adjoining plant.

 Each of the six U.S.  plants was examined in  terms of
 equipment  required to bring the plant within Federal ambient
 standards.  Acid plants were assumed  for those plants  which
 do not now control sulfur oxide emissions.   Methods  of
 metallurgical operation at all six plants are similar,  the
 differences stem from the type of ore handled by the three
 Missouri smelters and by the three Western smelters.  In  the
 West,  lead ore concentrates are leaner with  much higher
 amounts of gold, silver, zinc, cadmium,  copper,  antimony,
 and arsenic present.   Except for  a slagfuming furnace
 operation  in  the western smelters to  remove  the  higher
 amounts of zinc in the concentrates,  there are no major
 differences in the basic smelter  operations.   There  is a
 difference in degree in the refining  operations,  but off-
 gases are  not a problem in the refineries.   Refining
 involves kettle operations at  low temperatures just  above
 the melting point of lead; no  fumes are produced.

 To determine  control costs,  the following sequences  were
.assumed.   The feed has a sulfur content of 15 percent,  of
 which 85 percent is removed as sulfur dioxide in the sinter
 step*   Particulate emissions are  5<*.5 kg/ton of  feed in the
 sinterer,  and 13.6 kg/ton of feed in  the blast furnace.

 Sulfur dioxide from the sinter step is available for
 conversion into acid.   The acid plant is assumed to  convert
 90 percent of the sulfur dioxide  it receives, emitting the
 rest.   With an acid plant on the  sinter,  the additional gas
 cleaning scrubber is assumed to remove 90 percent of
 pafticulates.   The results of  these calculations are
 presented  in  Table 3-24-1 along with  anticipated emission
 levels.
                            2-165

-------
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-------
SECONDARY LEAD INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. The secondary
lead industry is defined as the industry that recovers lead
or lead alloys by smelting and/or refining lead scrap; this
does not include the activities of scrap dealers who may
sweat lead.  A total of 22 companies in the secondary lead
industry operate U5 plants.  The two leading producers are
estimated to account for about 64 percent of lead
production.

Approximately 526,000 metric tons of secondary lead were
recovered from scrap in 1970.  In 1971, production rose to
528,000 metric tons.  By 1973, the production of secondary
lead rose to approximately 577,000 metric tons.

The assumption of an average emission factor for cupolas and
reverberatory furnaces allows the breakdown of the secondary
lead industry on the basis of capacity alone.  Available
capacity data indicate three model plant sizes.  The
estimated industry capacity and model plant data are given
in the following tabulation:


                    Capacity          Total       Model Plant
                    Range             Capacity    Capacity
                    (metric    No.     (metric     (metric
                    tons/day)  Plants tons/day    tons/day

Plant Model I       83-181      23    2,482       109
Plant Model II      27-82        6      327        54
Plant Model III     12-26       16      253        15.8

Totals              12-181      15    3,062


Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emission of participates
occurs from lead-processing furnaces.  Generally, about 67
percent or more of the output of the secondary lead industry
is processed in blast furnaces or cupolas that are used to
reduce lead oxide in the form of battery plates or dross, to
lead.  If oxide reduction is not needed, then lead scrap can
be processed in reverberatory furnaces.  Kettle or pot
furnaces may be used to produce small batches of alloys for
holding or refining lead.   These lead processing furnaces
represent obvious particulate emission sources; the primary
emissions being lead oxide.  Another particulate emission
source is the slag tap and feeding ports on the cupolas and
reverberatory furnaces.   Although lead is occasionally
sweated in a reverberatory furnace,  reclamation of secondary
                           2-167

-------
lead by this :means is a very small portion of the total lead
production.  Emissions from slag operations are not known.

The industry estimate of 90 percent net control in 1970
indicates that nearly all plants had emission controls of
some sort.  A control increase to 98 percent estimated by
1980 is based on implementation of the proposed new source
performance standards.

Control Technology and Costs. Either a baghouse or a wet
scrubber can be utilized to achieve emission control.  The
baghouse is chosen for this cost analysis because it is
generally cheaper; it is assumed baghouse life averages 15
years.

Annual costs include capital charges, operating and
maintenance, and credits for byproduct recovery value.
Since the lead oxide collected in the control equipment is
recycled into the smelting furnace, it has value as a
byproduct; therefore, the recovery of this lead oxide lowers
estimated operating and maintenance costs.

The calculated costs for Model I, II, and III plants
presented in this model plant cost tabulation included in
Table 3-25-1 were based on the following key points:

  •  Model I plants are assumed to require two separate
     baghouse installations, while Model II and Model III
     were assumed to need only one baghouse for control.

  *  Baghouse airflow needs were estimated at 11.2 cubic
     meters per ton of daily capacity.

  •  The value of lead oxide recovered from baghouse
     operations was estimated to be 5 cents per kilogram,
     plus 50 percent.  It was further assumed that only the
     lead oxide recovered by going from 90 percent net
     control in 1970 to an estimated 98 percent net control
     in 1980 should be credited against control costs.  This
     amounts to 6.17 kilograms per ton of lead processed.
     In addition, production at full capacity was assumed.
                           2-168

-------
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PRIMARY ZINC INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities. Zinc ranks after
aluminum, copper, and lead in tonnage of nonferrous metals
produced in the United States.  Major uses in 1973 were
zinc-base alloys, particulary die-cast alloys used in
automotive and electrical equipment  (41 percent), galvanized
steel used in construction and electrical transmission
equipment  (36 percent), brass and bronze used for plumbing,
heating, and industrial equipment (1* percent), zinc
chemicals, particularly zinc oxide, used in the rubber,
paint, and ceramic industries (H percent), and rolled zinc
used in dry cells and lithographic plates (2 percent).

The principal ore minerals are sulfides, which may be
predominantly zinc ores or lead-zinc ores.  Also, some zinc
is obtained from lead-base and copper-base ores.  Zinc
sulfide concentrates produced from these ores are converted
to the oxide state (calcine) by roasting, and then reduced
to metallic zinc by either electrolytic deposition or by
distillation in retorts or furnaces.  In plants using
distillation methods, the calcine is given an additional
sintering step to provide a more compact feed as well as to
remove impurities.  Some zinc producing companies also
produce zinc oxide.  In pyrolytic plants, both zinc metal
and zinc oxide are produced from zinc vapor; in the first
case, the vapor is condensed to zinc metal; in the second,
it is oxidized in a chamber.

Over three-quarters of the domestic mine production comes
from these six states: Tennessee, Colorado, Missouri, New
York, Idaho, and New Jersey.  Numerous small companies
participate in only the mining and beneficiation sector of
the zinc industry; these companies sell their concentrates
to custom smelters.

In 1973, six companies  (St. Joe, Asarco, Amax, Bunker Hill,
New Jersey Zinc, and National Zinc) operated eight primary
zinc plants, all of which operate as custom smelters to some
extent.  Information on the locations, acid plant
installations, annual capacities, and types of roasting
processes used is also included.  The three remaining
horizontal-retort plants totaling 161,000 metric tons of
capacity are in various stages of being phased out of
operation.  New electrolytic capacity totaling 35«,000
metric tons of zinc will replace these horizontal retort
plants; plant size distribution of the three new U.S.
electrolytic plants is tabulated below.
                            2-170

-------
                                            % Of U.S. Capacity
                                            After Closing
Capacity Feed        Capacity, Slab Zinc    Horizontal
 (metric tons/yr)      (metric tons/yr)       Retort Plants

    296,000              163,000                  29
    264,000              145,000                  26
     82,000               45,000                   8


The main product of zinc reduction plants is slab zinc.  Ore
concentrate capacity in 1973 was 1,337,000 metric tons per
year, equivalent to 763,000 metric tons slab zinc.
Approximately 24 percent of this capacity utilizes
horizontal retort plants; all of which are scheduled for
phasing but in the near future.

In 1973, the three types of pyrothermic plants
 (electrothermic, vertical retort, and horizontal retort)
accounted for almost two-thirds of the primary zinc
capacity.  This will change in the near future because three
new electrolytic plants are in the early stages of
construction; they are: the Asarco plant at Stephensport,
Kentucky with a planned capacity of  163,000 metric tons of
zinc annually, the New Jersey Zinc Company plant at
Clarksville, Tennessee with a planned 145,000 metric tons
capacity, and the New National Zinc plant at Blackwell,
Oklahoma with a planned capacity of 45,000 metric tons.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from zinc
reduction plants are primarily particulates and sulfur
dioxide from the roasters in the electrolytic plants, and
from the roasters and traveling-grate sintering machines in
the pyrothermic plants.  In the electrolytic plants, the
calcine from the roaster is substantially sulfur-free so
that there is a heavy concentration of sulfur dioxide in the
off-gases.  In the case of the pyrothermic plants, roaster
.off-gases are also heavy, but there are only light
concentrations of sulfur dioxide in the sintering machine
off-gases.  Particulates are relatively heavy in both
streams.

Control Technology and Costs, sulfur oxide and particulates
in roaster off-gases are now being controlled by the use of
sulfuric acid plants in six of the present eight plants.  In
these cases, particulate control necessary for the effective
operation of the acid plant system is achieved with
associated gas cleaning equipment.  With the closing of the
three horizontal retort plants, all the roasters in the
primary zinc plants are controlled with acid plants.  In the
two remaining pyrothermic plants, the sintering machine


                           2-171

-------
particulates are controlled in one case by settling flues,
electrostatic precipitators, and a baghouse, in the other,
by a venturi scrubber.

In general, the control scheme for the primary zinc industry
is to use acid plants on the roaster off-gases where most of
the sulfur dioxide is given off.  All other operations, with
the exception of three plants using a horizontal retort,
have particulate control devices.  In the case of these
plants with horizontal retorts, conversion to vertical
retort equipment is the practical control scheme; however,
costs for this conversion were not obtained, as this
involves a major plant renovation.

With the closing of the three horizontal retort plants, the
only new control equipment required for the industry is the
acid plants and associated gas cleaning equipment necessary
to control sulfur dioxide and particulates in the three new
electrolytic plants under construction; these controls come
under New Source Performance Standards.

Annual!zed control costs are detailed in Table 3-26-2.
                           2-172

-------
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-------
SECONDARY ZINC INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Zinc ranks after
aluminum, copper, and lead in tonnage of nonferrous metals
produced in the United States.  Major uses in 1973 were
zinc-base alloys, particularly die-cast alloys used in
automotive and electrical equipment (11 percent), galvanized
steel used in construction and electrical transmission
equipment (36 percent), brass and bronze used for plumbing,
heating, and industrial equipment (11 percent), zinc
chemicals, particularly zinc oxide, used in the rubber,
paint, and ceramic industries (1 percent), and rolled zinc
used in dry cells and lithographic plates (2 percent).

Secondary zinc comes from two major sources: the zinc-base
alloys and the copper-base alloys.  Most of the secondary
zinc that is recovered comes from reconstituted copper-base
alloys; slab zinc is next, then chemical products, and zinc
dust.  For purposes of this report, the 11 operating plants
that comprise the secondary zinc industry use sweating
and/or distilling operations to produce zinc slab, dust, and
oxide solely from scrap.  The secondary zinc industry is not
considered to include the activities of:

  •  Primary zinc producers that may manufacture zinc from
     scrap and ore

  *  Secondary brass and bronze plants that recover zinc in
     copper alloys

  •  Chemical manufacturers that produce zinc compounds by
     chemical treatment of zinc scrap

  *  Scrap dealers that may sweat zinc.

The total secondary industry zinc slab capacity stood at
18,100 metric tons at the end of 1972.  Redistilled
secondary zinc slab production in 1971 was 73,100 metric
tons, of that total 11,200 metric tons were produced by the
secondary zinc industry and the remainder was produced by
the primary zinc industry.  Other zinc materials produced by
the secondary zinc cpmpanies included zinc dust and zinc
oxide.  In 1971, slightly over 24,500 metric tons of zinc in
the form of zinc oxide was produced from zinc scrap.  It is
assumed that nearly all of this oxide is produced by the
secondary zinc companies and that this production is
indicative of a secondary capacity of 31,700 metric tons per
year of contained zinc.  Statistics are not available for
total secondary zinc dust and zinc oxide capacity; estimates
were derived from the available data.  'To further complicate
                            2-171

-------
capacity estimation, some production set-ups permit
production of either oxide or slab.

The production of zinc dust from zinc-base scrap in 1970
totaled 26,300 metric tons.  It is assumed that much of this
production came from the secondary industry and that
secondary capacity is 31,700 metric tons per year.

No data is available for sweating capacity; which can be
performed in various types of furnaces.  It is assumed that
much of the feed material for 'production of refined
secondary zinc is sweated; sweating capacity is therefore
placed at 63,500 metric tons per year.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. There are at least four
operations which generate emissions in the secondary zinc
industry: materials handling, mechanical pretreatment,
sweating, and distilling.  This analysis considers only
control costs for emissions from the sweating and distilling
operations, as insufficient data is available for
calculating the possible costs of controlling emissions from
the other sources.

In the sweating operation, various types of zinc containing
scrap are treated in either kettle or reverberatory
furnaces.  The emissions vary with the feed material used
and the feed material varies from time-to-time and from
plant-to-plant.  Emissions may vary from almost 0 to 15 kg
of particulates per metric ton of zinc reclaimed.  For
purposes of this report, it is assumed that the maximum
emission rate applies.

In the case of the various types of zinc distilling
furnaces, the accepted emission rate is 23 kilograms per
metric ton of zinc processed.  Some distillation units
produce zinc oxide, and normally utilize a baghouse for
collection of the product.  This report assumes that these
baghouses are sufficient to meet national ambient standards.
However, for the purpose of calculating control costs, it
was assumed that essentially all of the estimated zinc oxide
capacity could be switched to slab zinc or dust production,
and emission controls would be required.

Controlled and uncontrolled emissions from secondary zinc
sweating operations cannot be estimated with an acceptable
degree of probable accuracy because reliable data are not
available.

The estimated .emissions from secondary zinc distillation
based on available production estimates and an average
emission factor of 23 kg per metric ton are tabulated below.


                           2-175

-------
It is estimated that 57 percent of the emissions were
controlled in 1971 and that 90 percent will be controlled in
1980.

Control Technology and Costs. The major emission of concern
is particulates, consisting mainly of zinc oxide.  Baghouses
have been shown to be effective in controlling both
distillation and sweating-furnace emissions except when the
charge contains organic materials such as oils.

A complete accounting of secondary zinc plants by type of
furnaces used and the product or products produced is not
available.  Based on the limited information, it is assumed
that the industry's 1U plants can be represented by two
models: two Model I plants, each consisting of 7,260 metric
tons per year sweating capacity and 10,900 metric tons per
year distilling capacity; and twelve Model II plants, each
consisting of 1,080 metric tons per year of sweating
capacity and 4,990 metric tons per year of distilling
capacity.

Estimated annualized control costs for the secondary zinc
industry are detailed in Table 3-27-1.
                           2-176

-------
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ASBESTOS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capabilities. The asbestos
industry consists of the following major activities: mining
of ore, milling of ore, and the manufacture of asbestos
products, all of which are used in thousands of products and
applications.  Over 40 percent of annual consumption, which
was estimated to be nearly 750,000 metric tons in 1972, is
used for construction materials, primarily cement products;
other important users include floor tiles, paper, asphalt
felts, friction products, and packing and gaskets.  Domestic
consumption has been growing at an annual rate of about 5
percent.

Asbestos is normally handled by air conveyance during
processing.  The air conveying system must be tightly
controlled because of the adverse health effects of airborne
fibers, which are kept airborne for significant distances as
a result of their fine structure and low density.  The
finishing processes that involve breaking, grinding or
polishing, which are required in making asbestos products,
account for most of the air emissions.

A total of nine milling plants were in operation during
1970.  over 98 percent of milling capacity  (about 149,000
metric tons) was represented by five large, vertically-
integrated firms.  Imports represented nearly 85 percent of
the asbestos used in various manufacturing processes during
1973.

Manufacturing plants can be grouped into facilities
producing the following types of general product categories:
construction materials, floor tiles, felts and papers,
friction products, textiles, and miscellaneous.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Principal emission sources
of asbestos are from the air conveying systems used in the
processing and finishing stages required in making asbestos
products.  Asbestos emissions can be divided into two
categories: either asbestos remains essentially a free fiber
throughput the process and in the final product or the
asbestos is wetted or bound into a matrix at an early stage
of processing.

Production of asbestos textiles is the major manufacturing
process in the first category.  In this process, the long
asbestos fibers are fluffed and then blended with a
cellulosic fiber.  The subsequent processing, which involves
carding, lapping, roving, spinning, and weaving or braiding,
is performed on equipment similar to the standard textile
                            2-178

-------
machining processes requiring frequent access when
operating.

Virtually all other processes fall in the second category.
Significant emissions may occur in finishing operations for
cement pipe and building products, felts and papers, and
friction products.  Asbestos emissions from floor-tile
manufacture are essentially nil after the fibers are mixed
with the hot vinyl or asphalt.  In friction products, the
processes of molding and curing are usually pollution free,
while the finishing processes involving shaping, cutting,
and sawing may give rise to some emissions.  In sprayed
insulation, asbestos emissions occur from handling the dry
asbestos and cement mixture, the escape of non-wetted fiber,
overspray and splash, and the disposal of wastes.


Control Technology and Costs. The only acceptable control
technique for asbestos milling and manufacturing is the
fabric filter, or baghouse.  Efficiencies of 95 percent or
higher are relatively easily obtained.  This proces^s was
assumed to be applied at all plants.  Annualized control
costs and industry statistics are detailed in Table 3-28-1.
                           2-179

-------











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ASPHALT CONCRETE PROCESSING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities. Asphalt concrete
includes a mixture of aggregates and an asphalt cement
binder.  Aggregates usually consist of different
combinations of crushed stone, crushed slag, sand, and
gravel.  Asphalt concrete plant processing equipment
includes raw-material apportioning equipment, raw-material
conveyors, a rotary dryer, hot-aggregate elevators, mixing
equipment, asphalt-binder storage, heating and transfer
equipment, and mineral-filler storage and transfer
equipment.

There are approximately 1,320 companies employing
approximately 300,000 to operate «,800 asphalt concrete
plants in the United States.  Plant size distribution is
listed below; 60 percent of the capacity is located in
plants having an average size of 182 metric tons per hour.
Based on a 1972 survey conducted by the National Asphalt
Pavement Association (NAPA)  covering 1,081 plants, 76
percent were stationary plants and 24 percent were portable.
Continuous mixers comprised 24 percent of the portable
plants, compared with only 2 percent for stationary plants.
                           2-181

-------
  Size Range       Average Size       No.
  (metric tons/hr)  (metric tons/hr)   Plants
                           Capacity(S)
      82-100
     101-263
     264-282
     283-499
 91
182
273
391
Totals
  694
3,122
  520
  464

4,800
  6.6
 59.5
 14.9
 19.0

100.0
Asphalt concrete production is essentially a batch-type
operation; continuous-mix represents only 10 percent of the
industry.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. The predominant emissions
are dust particulates from the aggregates used in making
asphalt concrete.  The largest sources of pafticulate
emissions are the rotary dryer and screening, weighing, and
mixing equipment.  Additional sources that may be
significant particulate emitters, if they are not properly
controlled, are the mineral-filler loading, transfer, and
storage equipment,, and the loading, transfer, and storage
equipment that handles the dust collected by the emission
control system.  Generally, the uncontrolled emissions from
asphalt batching plants amount to 23 kg of dust per metric
ton of product.

Control Technology and, Costs. Practically all plants use
primary dust collection equipment, such as cyclones or
settling chambers.  These chambers are often used as
classifiers with the collected aggregate being returned to
the hot-aggregate elevator to combine with the dryer
aggregate load.

The gases from the primary collector must be further cleaned
before venting to the atmosphere.  The most common secondary
collector is expected to be the baghouse, although venturi
scrubbers are used in some plants.  The baghouse allows dry
collection of dust which can be returned to the process or
dropped in a landfill.  The venturi scrubber makes dust
hauling expensive due to the wetting of the dust.  Also, the
use of large settling ponds and the possible need for water
treatment discourage the use of venturi scrubbers.

Annualized control costs and industry capacities are
detailed in Table 3-29-1.
                           2-182

-------
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CEMENT INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Portland cement,
which accounts for approximately 96 percent of cement
production in the United States, is processed from a blend
of various calcareous, argillaceous, and siliceous materials
including limestone, shell, chalk, clay, and shale.  &s the
binder in concrete, portland cement is the most widely-used
construction material in the United States.  The four major
steps in producing portland cement are: quarrying and
crushing; blending, grinding, and drying; heating the
materials in a rotary kiln to liberate carbon dioxide,
causing incipient fusion; and fine-grinding of the resultant
clinker, with the addition of H to 6 percent gypsum.
Finished cement is shipped either in bulk or in bags.  All
Portland cement is produced by either a wet or dry grinding
process, the distinguishing characteristic being whether the
raw materials are introduced into the kiln as a wet slurry
or as a dry mixture.

In 1971, 170 plants producing portland cement clinker plus
five plants operating grinding mills to produce finished
ctement were controlled by 51 companies located in 41 states
and Puerto Rico.  Fifty percent of this cement industry
capacity is owned by multiplant companies, and the eight
leading companies account for about 17 percent of the total.
Overcapacity has resulted in low profit margins, inhibiting
modernization and construction of new plants during the past
several years, and more stringent air-pollution regulations
have increased both capital and operating costs.  Recent
trends are toward increased operations through installation
of larger kilns to replace older marginal kilns, permitting
more economic and efficient pollution control,  cement
manufacturing plant capacity and size distribution are shown
below.
                           2-18U

-------
      Range
' (metric
tons/day)

Less than  513
 ,514-1025
1026-1538
 1539-2051
2052-2561
]2565 and up

Totals
No.
Plants

   6
  49
  65
  28
  11
  11

 170
NO.
Kilns

 10
 98
170
 95
 37
 56

466
Total Annual1
Capacity
(million      Total
metric tons)   Capacity (%)
     0.8
    12.3
    27.0
    16.5
     8.7
    12.6

    77.9
  1.0
 15.8
 34.6
 21.1
 11.2
 16. 3

100.0
   Based on  334-day operation.
 Size distribution is  expected to shift upwards  as  new  plants
 are  constructed and existing  plants  modified or closed,  so
 the  total  number of plants  is expected to  remain about the
 same.  It  is  also assumed that there will  be no major  shift
 in production capacity percentages between dry  and wet
 grinding processes, with the  latter  presently estimated  at
 59,percent.   Production is  typically 75  percent of capacity.

 Emission Sources and  Pollutants.  Primary emission  sources
 are  the dry-process blending  and grinding,  kiln operation,
 clinker cooler,  and finish  grinding.  Other sources  include
'the  feed and  materials-handling systems.   The primary  air
 pollutant  is  dust particulates.   Estimated dust-emission
 factor for an uncontrolled  dry-process kiln is  180 kg  per
 metric ton of cement,  compared with  130  kg per  metric  ton
 for  the wet-process plant,  giving an average emission  factor
 of 151 kg  per metric  ton of product.  The  corresponding
 emission factors for  the blending, grinding, and drying
 processes  are 48 and  16 kg  per metric ton,  respectively, for
 an average of 29 kg per metric ton.

 Control Technology and Costs.  Emissions  from the blending,
 grinding,  and drying  processes are generally controlled  with
 fabric filters.   Where ambient gas temperatures are
 encountered during grinding,  conveying,  and packaging
 processes, fabric filters are used almost  exclusively.   The
 greatest problems are  encountered with high-temperature  gas
 streams which contain  appreciable moisture.

 Both fabric filters and electrostatic precipitators  are  used
 in controlling dust emissions from the kilns.   The
 condensation  problems  from  the high-moisture content in  the
 wet-process plant may  be overcome by insulating the  ductwork
 and  preheating the systems  on start-up.  Current state
                            2-185

-------
regulations may be met with either fabric filters or
electrostatic precipitators; however, new source performance
standards will require the filters.  At least one plant has
a wet scrubber, but its costs were estimated on the basis of
an electrostatic precipitator with little error in total
estimated costs.

The total cost of control for portland cement plants was
found by estimating the costs for control devices for
grinding, mixing and drying (drying not included in the wet
processes) and kilns, which are the major sources of
pollutant.  Kilns may have either baghouses for dry-process
kilns or electrostatic precipitators for wet-process kilns;
baghouses were assumed to have been used in both cases for
the combined grinding, mixing, and drying processes.  Other
sources, including clinker coolers, packaging, and crushing,
are not costed due to prevailing industry control prior to
the 1970 Clean Air Act and/or minimal costs.

The capital cost of baghouses is assumed to be proportional
to the 0.91 power of capacity, while the capital cost of
electrostatic precipitators is proportional to the 0.67
power of capacity; in each case, the operating cost is
linearly proportional to the capacity.  The cost of
baghouses for the grinding, mixing, and drying operations
was scaled in the same manner.  However, the required size
was scaled by 0.78 (dry) and 0.26  (wet) to account for the
smaller airflow rates of these processes, and the absence of
control required for the wet-process raw material grinding
mills.

Annualized control costs are detailed in Table 3-30-1.
                           2-186


-------
LIME INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are
currently 186 lime producing plants in the United States.
These plants can be divided into four size ranges, based
upon output capacity of metric tons per year; the number of
plants in each size range and their estimated capacities are
shown in Table 3-31-1.

The U.S. lime industry can be conventionally divided into
two product sectors.  Approximately 35 percent of the output
is consumed by the producers, while the remaining 65 percent
is sold in the open market.  Plants are located in 11 states
and Puerto Rico, with over 22 percent of U.S. capacity in
Ohio and the other major capacities located in Pennsylvania,
Texas, and Michigan; plant size distribution is shown in
Table 3-31-1.  Recent trends are toward closing of small,
old plants and replacing old kilns with larger units.
                       Table 3-31-1.
            Line Industry capacity Distributions
Size Range
(1,000 metric No.
tons/year)    Plants
     0-22.7
  22.7-90.9
  90.9-364
More than 36H
 68
 61
 52
  5
186
        Estimated 1972 Capacity,    Total
        (million metric tons/year)  Capacity(%)
 0.6
 3.0
10.5
 4.ft
18.5
  3.2
 16.2
 56.8
 23.8
100.0
In 1972, producers at 186 plants sold or used 18.5 million
metric tons.  Should the use of lime in processes for the
removal of sulfur oxides from combustion gases become
standard practice, the demand for lime will be increased
substantially.  The number of plants, meanwhile, has
declined from 195 in 1970 to 186 in 1972.  Further
consolidation may be expected to economically justify the
increased cost of emissions controls.

Lime is formed by expelling carbon dioxide from limestone or
dolomitic limestone by high tempertures.  This calcination
process forms quicklime.  Hydrated lime is made by the
addition of water to the quicklime.  The calcination of
dolomite results in dead-burned  (refractory) dolomite.
                           2-188

-------
Major uses of lime are for basic oxygen steel furnaces,
alkalies, water purification, other chemical processes, and
refractory dolomite.

About 73 percent of lime is produced in two basic types of
rotary kilns; the long rotary kiln, and the short rotary
kiln with external preheater.  Vertical kilns are used to
supply 27 percent of lime.  Almost all new lime production
is accomplished using the rotary process.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions from
lime manufacture are primarily particulates released when
crushing the limestone to kiln size, calcining the limestone
in a rotary or vertical kiln, and crushing the lime to size;
also, fly ash is released if coal is used in calcination.
Other emissions, such as sulfur oxides, may be generated by
fuel combustion.

Uncontrolled emissions from rotary kilns are about 100 kg
per metric ton of lime processed, compared with 1 kg per
metric ton from vertical kilns.  However, economics favor
use of the rotary kiln, and virtually all new and expanded
production is expected to be accomplished by this method.

Control Technology and Costs. Gases leaving a rotary kiln
are usually passed through a dust-settling chamber where the
coarser material settles out.  In many installations, a
first-stage, primary dry cyclone collector is used.  The
removal efficiency at this stage can vary from 25 to 85
percent by weight of the dust being discharged from the
kiln.

The selection of a second stage to meet the high efficiency
level of 0.03 grains per actual cubic foot may be either a
high-energy wet scrubber, fabric filter, or electrostatic
precipitator.  The higher capital cost of the electrostatic
precipitator may be more than offset in specific
installations by lower operating and maintenance costs.

It is believed that vertical kilns can be effectively
controlled to allowable emission limits with baghouses,
scrubbers, or cyclone/scrubber combinations,  in the latter
cases, efficiencies of 99 percent have been reported.
                  I

Capital costs for fabric filters in existing plants were
assumed to be twice their cost in new plants.  Capital costs
for wet scrubbers and electrostatic precipitators in
existing plants were assumed to be 50 percent greater than
in new plants.   Annualized production and cost control data
is presented in Table 3-31-2.
                           2-189

-------


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STRUCTURAL CLAY PRODUCTS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are
currently 466 plants in the United States manufacturing
structural clay products, including common brick, fireclay
or refractory brick, and sewer pipe.  The latter category
represents approximately 90 percent of the total production
of structural clay materials, with common brick being by far
the largest category, or approximately 75 percent of total
production.  Value of shipments in 1972 were $404 million,
$113 million and $13 million for common brick, clay sewer
pipe, and fireclay brick, respectively.  Plants are located
in 45 states with North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and Texas accounting for about 45 percent of
production capacity.

For purposes of estimating air abatement costs, the industry
was divided into those plants using either continuous tunnel
kilns or periodic kilns; an average plant capacity was
selected for each process, as shown below.
Periodic kilns

Continuous
  tunnel kilns

Totals
Av. Cap.
(1,000
Mt/Yr)

  21
 100
                                   ESt. 1974
                                   Cap.
                           No.     (million
                           Plants  Mt/Yr)
336


130

466
 6.9


12.9

19.8
Total
Cap. (%)

  35
  65

 100
Miscellaneous clays and shales are used to manufacture
common brick, sewer pipe, and refractory brick.  Typically,
the plants are located in the proximity of the clay mines.
The clays are crushed and ground at the plant, after which
they are screened and mixed with water for the forming
operation.  Common brick, sewer pipe and some refractory
brick are formed by extrusion; most refractory brick is
formed by die pressing.

The formed materials are fire-treated by either continuous
tunnel or intermittent periodic kiln processes.  In the
continuous tunnel kiln, the charge is first preheated by
airflow escaping from the bake oven, passed through the oven
at temperatures of approximately 1,900°F, and then passed
through a cooling stage.  In contrast, the periodic kiln
heats the charge at ambient temperature to a peak
                           2-191

-------
temperature, after which the fuel is shut off, allowing the
charge to cool to ambient temperature again; this cycle
requires about 2 weeks, during which fuel is burned about 50
percent of the time.  The remainder of the period is used
for cooling and physical discharging of the product, steps
which emit little if any air pollutants.

A process frequently practiced by manufacturers of common
brick is flashing.  This process involves firing the brick
in a reducing atmosphere to achieve architecturally-
desirable surface colorations.  The process is noted because
when it is used in conjunction with periodic kilns, carbon
monoxide and/or hydrocarbon emissions usually result.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions from
the manufacture of clay construction products are primarily
sulfur dioxides released during the firing process, and
originating from the sulfur contained in the clay.
Uncontrolled sulfur dioxide emissions are estimated to be
about 0.37 metric ton per 100 metric tons of clay processed.
The flashing process associated with the manufacture of
certain types of brick can also result in hydrocarbon and
carbon monoxide emissions.  Approximately 0.12 metric ton of
hydrocarbons and/or carbon monoxide are estimated to be
released per 100 metric tons of brick flashed.

Table 3-32-1 summarizes estimated uncontrolled and
controlled emissions from the production of clay
construction materials.

Control Technology and costs. It is anticipated that wet
scrubbers will be used to control sulfur dioxide emissions
from the production of clay contruction materials.
Presently, only a few plants were found to be exercising
this or any other control option,  control of hydrocarbon
and carbon monoxide emissions can be accomplished by the use
of afterburners.  The requirement for afterburners will
depend on the duration of the flashing treatment at
different plants.  Likewise, it is probable that certain
plants will have minimal requirement for scrubbers because
of the negligible sulfur content of some clays.  About 10
percent of existing plants producing common brick, sewer
pipe, and refractory brick were assumed to be either
equipped with adequate controls or using new clay materials
sufficiently low in sulfur content to avoid the need for wet
scrubbers.

Annual costs and industry operating statistics are detailed
in Table 3-32-1.
                           2-192

-------
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SURFACE COATINGS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Air emission
abatement costs associated with the use of organic-based
surface coatings in four industries were considered:
automotive, furniture, major appliances, and metal or coil
coatings.  These industries are considered together because
of the general similarities between the coating processes
employed, the nature of the resulting emissions, and the
abatement technologies deemed applicable.

In 1971, approximately 606 million liters of coatings, i.e.,
paint, shellac, lacquer, and primers, were consumed by these
industries.  Since over 75 percent of the coatings used
contained about 50 percent organic solvents, significant
hydrocarbon emissions resulted during the application and
curing stages of the process.  Future estimates of the
volume of hydrocarbon emissions attributable to surface
coating processes must be considered in light of the
following factors:

  *  Increased use of non-hydrocarbon solvent materials,
     i.e., water-thinnable solutions.

  •  Application techniques involving solvent-free systems,
     i.e., powder coatings applied by electrostatic
     spraying.

Where applicable, these process alternatives would provide
as much as a 90 percent reduction in hydrocarbon emissions.
Faced with the alternative of conventional emission control
techniques (i.e., incineration) industries are expected to
adopt the newer coating formulations and application
techniques at an accelerated pace.  By 1985, as much as 50
percent of the coating processes may employ non-hydrocarbon-
based materials.

The coating process consists basically of two steps:
application and curing.  Both stages produce hydrocarbon
emissions through evaporation.  The coating is generally
applied by a spray gun in a paint spray booth, and the
surface is then cured or dried in a drying oven where the
solvent is evaporated.  A summary of industry production is
presented in Table 3-33-1.
                           2-19U

-------
Automobile
Furniture
Metal Coil
  Coating
Major Appliance

Totals
                       Table 3-33-1.
                 Surface Coatings Industry
                    Distribution  (1971)
  NO. Of
  Plants

  100
7,000»

   56
  144
Coating
Consumption
(million
liters)

   246
   189.5

    95
    76

   606.5
Percent
of Coating
Consumption

   41
   31

   16
   12

  100
MO percent of furniture manufacturers account for 65
percent of sales ($) .
  Automotive Finishing. In 1971, there were 100 motor
vehicle  (auto, truck, and bus) assembly plants located in 28
states throughout the United States.  Included in this group
are: motor vehicles and car bodies, truck and bus bodies,
motor vehicle parts and accessories, truck trailers, and
travel trailers and campers.  Approximately 246 million
liters of coatings were consumed in finishing operations,
which is about 41 percent of the total volume of coatings
used by the four industries under consideration.

  Furniture Finishing. About 7,000 establishments are
engaged in manufacturing the following types of furniture in
the United States:

     Wood Household Furniture
     Wood Furniture - Upholstered
     Metal Household Furniture
     Wood Cabinetry
     Household Furniture - Unclassified
     Wood office Furniture
     Metal Office Furniture
     Public Building Furniture
     Furniture and Fixtures - Unclassified.

Approximately 10 percent of the establishments account for
65 percent of industry sales, with the 10 largest producers
representing nearly 20 percent of industry sales.  Furniture
is manufactured in all but seven states, and North Carolina,
                           2-195

-------
the principal producer, srccounts for 22 percent of the total
shipment value.

About 190 million liters of organic solvent-based coatings
were consumed by the industry in 1971.  Between 1967 and
1972, paint consumption has grown about 5 percent annually.
Unlike the metal surfaces coatings, the use of water-based
paints and finishes for wood furniture is limited in
practice because of the tendency for the occurrence of
surface distortions in the wood.  Virtually all coatings
used, therefore, are hydrocarbon-based and range from 30 to
70 percent by weight in organic content.

  Coil Coating. The coil coating process consists primarily
of the pretreatment of sheet metal in the strip or coil
form, followed by the application of an organic coating and
subsequent curing (or baking) to obtain the desired surface
characteristics.  It is estimated that 56 plants in the
United States are engaged in this coating process.  Almost
60 percent of the plants are located in Pennsylvania, Ohio,
and Illinois, presumably near sources of steel production.
In 1971, approximately 95 million liters of coatings were
consumed by coil coating processes, representing an annual
increase of 14 percent since 1964 when about 38 million
liters were consumed.

  Major Appliances. In 1971, there were 144 plants in the
United States engaged in the production of major appliances
including: cooking equipment, refrigerators and freezers,
and laundry equipment; about 76 million liters of coatings
were consumed in this production effort.  Growth in industry
consumption of coatings averaged 4 percent annually between
1964 and 1971.

Emissions and sources of Pollutants, while paint spray
booths are a source of hydrocarbon emission, the volume of
solvent released to the air through evaporation is dependent
on the degree of overspray, which can vary anywhere from 10
to 90 percent.  Aerosols resulting from overspray are
usually removed by filters or water scrubbers, but these
devices have little impact on removal of emissions due to
solvent evaporation.  The major source of emissions
attributable to coating processes are the drying ovens.


Control Technology and Costs. Incineration of the solvent
vapors in the exhaust gases from the spray booths and the
drying ovens is presently the most practicable technique for
limiting hydrocarbon emissions from surface coating
operations.  Control costs are primarily a function of the
exhaust gas volume.
                           2-196

-------
Incineration essentially involves oxidation of hydrocarbons
in the exhaust gases to form carbon dioxide and water.
Several alternative techniques are available, including
flame combustion, thermal combustion, and catalytic
combustion.  Presently, technical considerations favor the
use of thermal incinerators.  However, as continuing fuel
shortages prevail and prices rise, catalytic units will
probably become more economical in the future.  To offset
the impact of current fuel shortages, thermal incinerators
with heat exchange units were considered to be most
applicable for all but the furniture category where little
curing is employed.  The heat exchanger extracts waste heat
from the hot exhaust gases, enabling reuse and operating
economy.

A summary of estimated investment and annual operating costs
per model plant are provided in Table 3-33-2.
                            2-197

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STEAM ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS

Operating Characteristics, Among the largest stationary
sources of air pollution are the coal, oil, and natural gas
burners.  Of the three fuels, coal is the most polluting and
natural gas is the cleanest and most convenient to use.  The
principal uses for these fuels include furnace operation in
steam electric power plants, steam generation and heating in
the industrial sector, and space heating in the commercial
and residential sectors,  in 1972, more than 82 percent of
the steam coal (in contrast to coking coal) produced was
used for power generation.  About 63 percent of all residual
fuel oil consumed and 18 percent of natural gas produced
were used for the same purpose.  It is apparent from these
estimates that utility power burners are the major sources
of emission for the pollutants of concern, because they burn
the most polluting fuels in the largest quantities.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. In the near future, energy
resources that will be consumed in large amounts are the
nuclear fuels with their radioactive-waste-disposal
requirements* and the fossil fuels with their residue
disposal and gaseous emission-control requirements.  Among
the fossil fuels, natural gas is the cleanest, but it is in
short supply.  To demonstrate the cleanliness of gas
relative to coal and oil, the emissions resulting from the
use of each fuel in a typical uncontrolled 1,000 megawatt
power plant are given below.


                       Emissions  (kilograms per hour)

  Fuel              Particulates      SO.2      NOx

  Coal                 69,000      41,000   13,000
  Oil                     600      12,500    8,600
  Gas                     170           7    6,800
Natural gas is the preferred fuel from an emissions
standpoint.  Gas-fired power plants provided 29 percent of
electricity produced in 1971, and gas provided about one-
third of all the heating energy derived from fossil fuels.
The production of gas in the near future is expected to
remain fairly constant, and the growing fossil fuel demand
will be supplied by coal and oil.

Despite current shortages in the United States, petroleum is
still an abundant fuel internationally.  For mobile sources,
its derivatives, gasoline and diesel oil, are not expected
to be supplanted in the near future.  For utility power


                           2-199

-------
burners, despite the potential switch from oil to coal in
many power plants, distillate and residual fuel oil will
continue to supply a significant fraction of the energy
required in 1980.  Fuel oils for utility burners contain
sulfur  (typical sulfur contents average* about 0.7 percent
for United States crude oils and about 2.2 percent for
imported crude oils), much of which is removed from the
final product.  The ash from crude oil combustion is low,
about 0.5 percent.

The supply of crude oil and its derivatives in the United
States is becoming increasingly critical as a result of
limited reserves of domestic sources and increasing
international demand for this versatile fuel.  Furthermore,
oil is in greater demand for producing electrical power in
areas where foreign oil was, and probably will continue to
be, more accessible.

The most abundant fossil fuel in this country is coal.  In
1971, about 327 million tons of coal were burned to produce
about half of the electrical power.  In 1970, 100.5 million
tons were used for heating, 98 million tons were used to
produce coke for use in indistrial processes, and 73 million
tons were exported.  The resources of coal are widespread
throughout the United States, but coal has not been used in
proportion to its availability in comparison with the other
fuels.

Coal typically has an ash content of 9 percent, of which
(under uncontrolled conditions) about 85 percent would be
emitted from a dry-bottom boiler, and 65 percent from a wet-
botton boiler.  The resulting emissions would be orders of
magnitude higher than those from the other fossil fuels.
Particulate controls of varying efficiencies are found on
all but the smallest coal burners.

Sulfur dioxide emissions from coal burning are even more
serious and more difficult to control.  In 1970, the sulfur
content of coal burned by utilities, industry, and in
heating units for household and commercial use averaged 2.5
percent; this sulfur appears as sulfur dioxide and some
sulfur trioxide.  To reduce the sulfur oxides, a coal of
low-sulfur content could be chosen.  However, much of the
Eastern low-sulfur coal is reserved for use as coke by the
metals industries.  In only a small percentage of current
coal production is the sulfur content low enough to meet New
Source Performance Standards.  The major western low-sulfur
coals will be used primarily in the central Region.

Use of coal to supply most electric power in the near future
seems unavoidable.  Therefore, more stringent sulfur dioxide
                           2-200

-------
emission controls will be needed.  In addition to switching
to low-sulfur coal« other strategies are possible, such as
removal of sulfur from flue gases, and removal of sulfur
from high sulfur fuels before burning.

The uncontrolled and controlled emissions from utility
fossil-fuel burners may be estimated from known  (measured)
emission factors, for the first case, and from the
capability of the various control techniques in the second.

Control Technologies and Costs. The following paragraphs
analyze the different technologies presently employed to
control sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, particulates, and
the related costs.

  Sulfur Oxides. The state-of-the-art of flue gas
desulfurization  (FGD) is such that the so-called throwaway
scrubbing systems (lime and limestone) will predominate
through 1980.  By 1980, roughly 45 percent of all capacity
with sulfur oxide controls will be using limestone
scrubbing, while 30 percent will use lime scrubbing.  The
balance (about 25 percent) will be divided equally between
lime/limestone and "other" control methods, including the
use of regenerative systems.  On this basis, the capital and
operating costs used for FGD through 1980 will be the
weighted average of lime and limestone costs.  The capital,
operating, and annual costs of FGD systems are as follows:


                          New Plants     Existing Plants

Investment ($/kw)            51                72
O6M (mills/kw hr)             1.2               2.0
Annual (mills/kw hr)           3.0               H.O


For these plants, it was assumed that the cumulative
generating capacity controlled by this technique in 1971,
1972, 1975, and 1980 will be 0, 1,000, 7,000, and 33,000
megawatts, respectively.  Recent estimates show a more
accelerated application of flue gas desulfurization
technology.  (See EPA Draft Report, "The Economic Impact of
EPA's Air and Water Regulations on the Electric Utility
Industry", November 1975.)  Investment costs for each period
were simply computed by multiplying the dollars per kilowatt
by the net generating capacity for which FGD systems were
installed in that period.

Operating and maintenance costs (and in general time-
dependent costs) for a given period were computed using an
operating rate of 55 percent and the cost in mils per
                           2-201

-------
kilowatt hour.  The time, in years, that a certain annual
increment controlled generating capacity contributes to the
time period under consideration as well as the magnitude of
the increment will determine its contribution to the total
cost in that period.  The sum of the products of incremental
megawatt capacity and number of years contributed was used
to compute the OSM as well as annual and depreciation (10-
year)  costs.

The same procedure was used to compute the costs of FGD for
existing plants.  An operating rate of 70 percent was
assumed for these plants.

It is projected that a significant number of Central and
Eastern utilities, usually burning high-sulfur coal, will
switch to burning Western and much less significantly.
Eastern low-sulfur coal.  It is estimated that cumulative
generating capacities of 880 trillion, 1,510 trillion and
1,650 trillion Btu's per year will switch from high-to low-
sulfur coal in 1975, 1977r and 1980, respectively.  Western
low-sulfur coal will be transported over long distances, and
this will double or triple the cost of the coal.  Some
modifications in converting the power plant to low-sulfur
coal are necessary; these changes are related to such items
as increased capacity of coal pulverization equipment
necessary to handle the higher tonnages and derating of the
power plant owing to the high moisture content of Western
low-sulfur coals.

In the period 1975-80, two other sulfur oxide methods of
abatement will be employed in coal burners.  These will
involve the increased use of physically-cleaned coal and the
blending of low-sulfur coal with high-sulfur coal.  In some
instances, low-sulfur coal will be burned exclusively during
episodes of adverse meteorological conditions.

The approach used here was to use FEA's base case scenario
for the total utilization of oil and gas.  Thus, the
projected energy scenario outlined in Table 3-34-1, with a
modification to represent the expected switch of some
existing oil burning plants back to coal:
                           2-202

-------
                       Table 3-34-1.
         Energy Consumption by Oil and Gas Burners

                   (In Trillion Btu/Year)

                    1970              1975        1980
Fuel
Distillate Oil
  (0.3%S)              11*0        240    482      389   706
Fuel Oil (1%S)       1,100      1,942  2,471    3,137 4,067
Fuel Oil (1-2%S)       390        682    412    1,098   676
Fuel Oil (2+%S)        450        785    285    1,30U   470
Natural Gas          4,000      3,274  3,274    2,948 2,948
Coal Switch              0        113    113      985   985
The differential fuel costs resulting from the utilization
of Western and Eastern low-sulfur coal are given below.


                                      ^/Million Btu

                                   Western,       Eastern,
                                   Chicago        Cleveland

Cost of high sulfur coal              47             37
Cost of low-sulfur coal as burned     60             73
Cost of boiler modifications  (as
  explained above)                     3              3
Differential fuel cost due to CAA     16             39
It is not known at this time what percentage of the low-
sulfur coal usage will be Western and what the price will be
to burn it.  However, most of the coal usage will be
Western, and the price of 16 cents per trillion Btu will be
used as explained above.  The unit costs of physically
cleaning and blending coal (transportation and storage
mainly)  are $4.5 and $0.25 per ton, respectively.

Fuel oil burning utilities will in some cases be required to
switch to low-sulfur fuel oil.  The costs of the various
grades with respect to sulfur content are given below.
                           2-203

-------
                       % Sulfur
                 per Million Btu
Distillate
Fuel Oil
Fuel Oil
Fuel Oil
0.3
1.0
1-2
2
90
82
71
65
For the conversion of Eastern utilities to low-sulfur coal,
only quantities involved between 1975 and 1980 were
considered.  Taking 1975 as the baseline year  (zero
conversion) and in the absence of information on how much
Western (or Eastern) low-sulfur coal was burned in the East,
the post-1975 conversion data will be used.  The levels are
40 million and 77 million tons per year in the periods 1976-
77 and 1978-80, respectively.  In the period 1975 to 1980,
this will amount to a total of 272 million tons.  The cost
at 16 cents per million Btu will come to a total of $800
million in the period under consideration.

Physical coal cleaning and blending in the period 1975 to
1980 will involve 65 and 182.5 million tons in the
respective categories.  The respective costs will be $292
million and $16 million.

In oil-burning utilities, the differential fuel costs
resulting from switching to low-sulfur fuel oils and
distillates has been estimated by integrating the
differentials between the baseline case and that projected
for the years 1975 through 1980 in Table 3-34-1.

  Nitrogen Oxides. These pollutants will be controlled by
applying staged combustion and off-stoichiometric firing.
The unit costs for a 500 megawatt plant burning coal, oil,
and gas were used in assessing the total cost of control.
It was assumed that emissions of nitrogen oxides will be
abated by the above technique starting in July 1975.  While
it is recognized that this may not necessarily take place,
the costs obtained by this assumption will represent an
upper limit for the period 1975-80.  Variances and
exemptions issued in Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR)
where the ambient levels of this pollutant are not critical
will of course lower the overall costs of control.

The above-mentioned control technique applies only to dry
bottom boilers; wet bottom boilers are not amenable to this
abatement technique.  Consequently, if total control is
desired, massive conversion of the estimated 17 percent of
the coal steam-electric generating capacity with wet bottom
boilers will have to be converted to the dry bottom type.
                           2-204

-------
Berkau's unit cost data were used, wherein a 500 megawatt
model plant was assumed; the investment costs were as
follows:
              Fuel              $ per kw

                                New      Existing*

              Oil/Gas           0.56        0.75
              Coal              2.75        3.OH

*Costs for new plants multiplied by a retrofit difficulty
factor of 1.35.  Operation and maintenance and total annual
costs were assumed to be 2 and 18 percent of investment per
year; depreciation was assumed to be 14 percent per year.
It appears that only AQCR's 24 and 67, whose boundaries
encompass the cities of Los Angeles and Chicago,
respectively, will restrict nitrogen oxide emissions from
utility burners.  In Los Angeles, the 1975 total oil and gas
fired capacity to be controlled amounts to 11,770 megawatts
of coal, oil, and gas burning facilities.  An additional
2,000 megawatts of coal burning capacity is estimated to be
on-stream by 1978.  Estimates of control costs in these two
AQCR's were made and added to the national estimates.

  Control of Particulates in Coal Burners. It is estimated
that about 75 percent of all coal-burning power plants
existing in 1970 had particulate removal equipment of about
90 percent efficiency.  However, it should be noted at this
point that it is difficult to substantiate this because of a
lack of data.  Stringent local  (city and state) regulations
initiated the expansion of serious efforts to control
particulates in the late 1960's and early 1970»s.  The
assumption has been made that a gradual upgrading of
particulate control devices to 99.9 percent efficiency or
better will take place.

All generating capacity in operation before 1975 is
considered to be controlled by electrostatic precipitators,
and existing capacity for which FGD systems will be
installed before and after 1975 will not require additional
particulate control capability.  New generating capacity
coming into operation after 1975 and for which FGD will be
applied will require a particulate control level up to 95
percent using electrostatic precipitators; this is roughly
half the investment required for control up to 99.5 percent.
Generating capacity existing in 1971 together with that
coming on line between 1971 and 1975 (after FGD capacity is


                           2-205

-------
subtracted)  will have capacity efficiency upgraded to 99.9
percent by electrostatic precipitators.  Increments to the
1975 capacity (after taking out all FGD)  will be controlled
to 99.9 percent efficiency by electrostatic precipitators
and wet venturi scrubbing; the breakdown will be 90 and 10
percent, respectively.  The breakdown in capacity to be
controlled as explained above is shown in Table 3-31-2.
                       Table 3-34-2.
            Control of Participates 1971 to 1980
            (Trillion Btu Coal Burning Capacity)
Year

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
FGD»     FGD«
Existing New
         Remaining Capacity'
99.9 Percent   99.9 Percent
ESP            Venturi Scrubbing
0
48.
79.
154
337
761
1,340
1,410
1,490
1,590
0
2 0
5 0
0
0
221
552
748
1,060
1,410
                     7,800*
                     8,350
                     9,000
                     9,700
                    10,500
                    10,680
                    10,760
                    11,460
                    12,080
                    12,670
  No particulate controls necessary.
  to time of installation of FGD.
                  0
                  0
                  0
                  0
                  0
                 20
                 10
                100
                .100
                100

         Variances granted up
2 Control to 95 percent before FGD system.

3 Calculated by difference assuming on operating rate of 55
  and 70 percent of existing and new plants with FGD
  installed.  A heat rate of 0.01 trillion Btu per kw hr was
  also assumed.

* 1971 capacity will require only half the investment in
  upgrading from 95 to 99.9 percent.
  Unit Costs of Particulate control. The following costs
were used for 99.5 percent particulate control units:
                           2-206

-------
                          ESP      Venturi Scrubbing

Investment  ($ per kw)     20.0*          30.0*
OSM  ($ per kw-yr)          0.35           2.6

* Applying applicable inflation factors result in
  investments of 43 and H6 in 1975$ for ESP and Venturi
  scrubbing, respectively.
Capacity existing in 1971 will be gradually  (1971 to 1975)
upgraded from 90 to 99.9 percent.  This implies that half
the investment will be required and time-dependent charges
 (OSM and annual) will carry for only 2 years instead of 4
years.

The most recent anlaysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Agency by Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc.
 (TBS)».  This analysis was conducted in somewhat greater
depth than, and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure, and is considered to be more precise.  However,
time and resource constraints prevented incorporating these
costs into the scenario analyses using the SEAS model
procedure.  The TBS estimates are as follows (in million
 1975 dollars):

  Incremental Investment      (1975-1985)   20,000
  O&M in 1985                               2,700

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with

The TBS study results are listed below  (in billion 1975
dollars):

                                   1975-1980   1975-1985

Flue Gas Desulfurization             9.3         12.8
Eastern Medium sulfur Coal           0.9          0.9
Western Low Sulfur coal
  Equipment Modifications            0.6          1.3
  Precipitators                      2.0          4.2
Washing and Blending                 0.2          0.2
Other Precipitators                  0.6          0.6

TOTAL                               13.6         20.0

SEAS lists 5.8 billion associated with flue gas
desulfurization in 1975-1985, and H.S billion durincr the
                           2-207

-------
period 1975-1980.  As can be noted, this is approximately
half of the later, revised TBS calculations.  The forecasts
for electrostatic precipitators capital expenditures in SEAS
are 3.0 billion for 1975-1985 and 2.5 billion for 1975-1980.
SEAS assumed all costs associated with fuel-switching were
O&M, as opposed to capital investment required by the
standard regulations.  Much of the difference between the
two studies is due to assumptions about capacity covered by
the regulations and interpretation of costs associated with
the implementation of the standards.
1 "The Economic Impact of EPA's Air and WAter Regulations
  on the Electric Utilities Industries", Temple, Barker 6
  Sloane, Inc., November, 1975.
                           2-208

-------
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SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL

Solid waste disposal contributes to air pollution from
incineration and open burning methods.  Air pollutants
emitted to the atmosphere from such practices include
particulates, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, fluorocarbons, hydrochoric acid, and odors.  The
levels of pollutants emitted are primarily dependent on the
input or the material being burned; incinerator levels are
also dependent on the specific incinerator design and upon
the specific methods of operation.  Particulate emissions
are the highest concentrations, making them the specific
pollutant subject to controls.  There are no current Federal
regulations for odors, hydrochloric acid, and fluorocarbons.

The solid waste disposal methods that are discussed in the
following paragraphs were in use in 1971 in the proportions
shown below:
  Disposal Method

  Municipal Incinerators
  On-Site Incinerators
     (Commercial and Industrial)
  Open Burning and Open Dumps
  Other Methods

  Total Disposed Wastes
Solid Waste Disposed (%)

         5.3

         8.3
        22.2
        64.2

       100.0
MUNICIPAL INCINERATORS

Operating Characteristics and Capacities. Basically, there
are two types of municipal incinerators: the refractory-
lined furnace type, the most common in this country, and the
water-wall or waste-heat recovery type, more common in
Europe.«N  The water-wall units offer the advantage of steam
generation, and as a consequence of heat recovered during
steam generation, flue-gas temperatures are lower than the
refractory-lined units.  Incinerators with lower gas
temperatures have smaller volumes of flue gases to control,
and thus require smaller, less-costly air-pollution control
equipment.  In addition, with the low temperatures from heat
recovery, incinerators can utilize control equipment that
could not survive the higher temperature flue gases from the
refractory-lined furnaces.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Municipal incinerators
contribute to air pollution by releasing a variety of
pollutants to the atmosphere that include particulates.
                           2-210

-------
hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, fluorocarbons, nitrogen oxides
and carbon monoxides.  The levels of these pollutant
emissions are directly related to the design and operation
of the incinerator, but more importantly to the input
charge.  Of these pollutants, normally only the particulates
are considered to be emitted in concentrations that are high
enough to warrant controls.

Control Technology and Costs. Both high-efficiency wet
scrubbers and electrostatic precipitators are capable of
collection efficiencies to meet emission regulations of 91
grams per 45.1 kilograms of refuse charged.  Annualized
control costs and industry statistics are detailed in Table
3-35-1.
ON-SITE INCINERATORS  (COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL)

Operating Characteristics and Capabilities. In  1972, there
were approximately 100,000 on-site incinerators in use in
this country.  These intermediate-sized units are usually
associated with office buildings, large retail stores and
apartment buildings.  Of the over 23 million metric tons of
solid waste incinerated annually in the United States, more
than one-third is processed by on-site units that typically
process about 90 tons annually, or approximately 104
kilograms per hour.  States bordering the Great Lakes
(Minnesota, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana,
New York, and Pennsylvania) account for about 60 percent of
the total number of on-site units in the United states.

There are two types of commercial building and industrial
incinerators: single-chamber and multiple-chamber.  Single-
chamber incinerators are similar to residential or domestic
units and consist of a refractory-lined chamber with a grate
on which the refuse is burned.  Combustion products are
formed by contact between under-fire air and waste on the
grate.  Additional air (over-fire air) is admitted above the
burning waste to promote complete combustion.  Multiple-
chamber incinerators employ a second chamber to which
combustion gases from the primary chamber are directed for
further oxidation of combustible gases.  Auxiliary burners
are sometimes employed in the second chamber to increase the
combustion temperature.

It is estimated that the use of apartment incinerators,
which account for about 6 percent of installations for
refuse disposal, will become virtually extinct during the
1976-85 period.  The number of industrial and commercial
units should remain stable during that decade because new
installations will primarily be replacements of older units.
                           2-211

-------
Approximatly 88 percent of all on-site incinerators are the
multiple-chamber type; emissions from multiple-chamber
incinerators are generally lower than the single-chamber
incinerators.  The design capacity of the incinerator in
this report is from 23 kilograms per hour to 1,816 kilograms
per hour, and the average incinerator operates between 3-5
hours a day.

Emission sources and Pollutants. While on-site units emit
various products of combustion, only particulates  (fly ash)
are released in sufficient quantities to warrant
installation of controls.  Approximate emission factors for
single-chamber and multiple-chamber incinerators of
intermediate size are respectively 7.5 and 3.5 kilograms per
metric ton of refuse charged.

Control Technology and Costs. Operating conditions  (e.g.,
air supply to the combustion chamber), refuse composition,
and basic incinerator design have a pronounced effect on the
volume and composition of air emissions.  Afterburners and
wet scrubbers can be installed to control particulate
emissions and some other combustion products.  However, with
the shortage of natural gas and the expense of fuel oil, the
use of afterburners as retrofit controls on building
incinerators will probably be curtailed.  Furthermore, the
newer multiple-chamber units already employ auxiliary firing
techniques which in effect fulfills the function of an
afterburner.

Wet scrubbers will achieve an approximate 80 percent
reduction in particulates emissions.  This level of control
is sufficient to meet Federal particulate emission standards
of 2 kilograms per metric ton of refuse charged.

Annualized control costs and performance statistics are
detailed in Table 3-35-1.
OPEN BURNING AND OPEN DUMPS

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Open burning refers to the
indiscriminate and unconfined burning of wastes, such as
leaves, landscape refuse, and other rubbish.  Open dump
burning refers to unconfined burning of refuse at municipal
dumps.  Emissions from open dumps reflect the composition of
the refuse as well as the volume of such items as paper,
plastics, garbage, etc.  The primary emissions from open
burning are particulates, smoke, and products of combustion.

Control Technology and Costs. There is no control technology
that can be applied to open burning, and the only suitable
                           2-212

-------
alternatives for emissions control are the use of municipal
incinerators for disposal and the use of sanitary landfills.
It was assumed that all on-site open burning and the
resultant wastes would be diverted to sanitary landfills.
Annualized costs and process characteristics are detailed in
Table 3-35-1.
                           2-213

-------
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SEWAGE SLUDGE INCINERATION INDUSTRY

Operating Characteristics and Capacities. Incineration is
one of several methods currently practiced for the disposal
of sludges accumulated by the municipal sewage treatment
plants.  There are four types of sewage sludge incinerators:

  •  Multiple-hearth
  •  Fluidized bed
  •  Flash drying
  •  Cyclonic-type.

The majority of existing installations are the multiple-
hearth type.  The capacity distribution of sewage sludge
incinerators in 1968 is shown below:
Number of
Installations

     51
    103
     27
      7
 Capacity
 Range,
 Metric
 TPD» (dry
 solids)

 0.27-  9.1
 9.2 - 15.3
45.4 - 90.7
90.8 -272.0
Capacity
Metric
TPD (dry
solids)

   270
 2,132
 1,705
 1,214
Total
Capacity (%)

 27. 13
 54.79
 14.36
  3.72
Average
Cap.
Metric
TPD (dry
solids)

  5.3
 20.7
 63.4
173.4
    188                          5,321     100.00

1 TPD is the abbreviation for tons per day.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Particulate emissions from
uncontrolled sewage-sludge incinerators range from 32 grains
per DSCM (dry standard cubic meter) for multiple-hearth
type, and 282 gr per DSCM for fluidized-bed type
incinerators.  particulate emissions from existing
facilities controlled by wet scrubbers range from 0.35 to
2.12 gr per DSCM, with an average value of 1.45 gr per DSCM.
New source performance standards proposed by EPA limit the
particulate emissions at no more than 1.09 gr per DSCM.

Control Technology and Costs. All sewage sludge incinerators
in the United States are equipped with wet scrubbers that
have varying collection efficiency.  The scrubbers range
from low-energy types, with pressure drops in the range of
2.5 to 6 inches of water, to high-energy scrubbers with a
pressure drop of 18 inches of water.
                           2-216

-------
Control estimates of particulate emissions from sewage
sludge incinerators were based on the following assumptions:

  1. Incinerator operating schedules are 3,6UO hours per
     year for installations with capacities in the range of
     0.3 to «»5 metric tons per day, and 8,736 hours per year
     for installations with capacities in the range of 45.1
     to 272 metric tons per day.

  2. The majority of the existing installations are
     controlling particulate emissions to about 90 percent,
     or 1.5 kg per metric ton.

  3. To meet State Implementation Plans, existing facilities
     were to be upgraded by 1975 to control particulate
     emissions to no more than 2 kg per metric ton.  New
     facilities will be controlled to an emission level of
     no more than 0.8 kg per metric ton.

Table 3-36-1 details the investment, annual costs, and total
cash requirements for the industry along with operating
statistics.
                           2-217

-------
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GRAIN HANDLING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. Traditionally,
grain handling is considered in terms of series of grain
storage facilities starting from the delivery by the farmer
and ending with the ultimate user.  These grain storage
facilities or grain elevators, provide storage space and
serve as collection, transfer, drying, and cleaning points.
There are two main classifications of grain elevators—
country and terminal elevators.  Country elevators receive
grains from nearby farms by truck for storage or shipment to
terminal elevators or processors.  Terminal elevators (this
category is subdivided into inland and port terminals), are
generally larger than country elevators and are located at
significant transportation or trade centers.  .Inland
terminals receive, store, handle, and load these grains in
rail cars or barges for shipment to processors or port
locations.  Port terminals receive grain and load ships for
export to foreign countries.  It has been noted that
particulate emission is a function of both the amount of
grain handled and the operations involved in handling.   The
cost of equipment for emission control is a function of the
size of the facility and operations involved.  Consequently,
model sizes for the types of operations and size of country
elevators, inland terminals and port terminals have been
selected, ranging from 0 to 70 thousand kiloliters (dry
measure), 70 to 700 thousand kiloliters, and 0.7 to 7
million kiloliters.  It should be noted that very few
country elevators fall within the second range, while some
inland terminal elevators may fall within the first capacity
range.

Using data for the number and storage capacities of the
country and terminal elevators by states as of September 30,
1972, size ranges and number of facilities per size range
are estimated in Table 3-37-1.
                           2-219

-------
Ranges
(thousand
kl/yr)

  0-70
 70-700
700-7,000

Totals
                       Table 3-37-1.
                  Grain Handling Industry
              Facilities Production Capacities
Total
Volume
Handled
(million Total
kl/yr)    Volume (%)
 217
  70.9
 103

 390.9
 55.5
 18.1
 26.4

100.6
No. of
Facilities

  7,147
    413
     64

  7,624
 Average
 Volume
 (thousand
 kl/yr)

   30.4
  171.6
1,615
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Grain handling includes a
variety of operations which emit differing amounts of air
pollutants, primarily particulates.  The particulates
consist of attrition of the grain kernels and dirt.  Hence,
the amount of the dust  (particulates) emitted during the
various grain handling operations depends on the type of
grain being handled, the quality or grade of the grain, the
moisture content of the grain, the speed of the belt
conveyors used to transport the grain, and the extent and
the efficiency of dust-collecting system being used, such as
hoods and sheds.

Control Technology and Costs. Systems used to control
particulate emissions from grain handling operations consist
of either extensive hooding and aspiration systems leading
to a dust collector or methods for eliminating emissions at
the source.  Techniques which eliminate the sources of dust.
emissions or which retain it in the process are enclosed
conveyors, covers on bins, tanks and hoppers, and
maintenance of the system's internal pressure below the
external pressure so that airflow is directed in rather than
out of the openings.

control methods are also available to capture and collect
the dust entrained or suspended in the air.  The dust
collection systems generally used are cyclones and fabric
filters.

In order to meet the emission standards, it is assumed that
(except for grain drying) fabric filters will be installed
in all existing plants that do not have them or as
replacements for cyclones and other control devices.
                           2-220

-------
Table 3-37-2 shows the future estimated sales of grains and
the volume of grain handled by the two types of elevators.
                           2-221

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DRY CLEANING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are
basically two types of dry cleaning installations; those
using synthetic solvents, such as perch 1 or ethylene, and
those using petroleum solvents, such as Stoddard.  The trend
in dry cleaning operations today is toward smaller-packaged
installations located in shopping centers and surburban
districts.  These installations use synthetic solvents while
the older, larger commercial plants still use the petroleum
solvents.  It is estimated that approximately 55 percent of
dry-cleaning is accomplished by synthetic solvents, with the
remaining 45 percent accomplished by petroleum solvents.
Now that the small, older petroleum solvent plant is being
replaced by synthetic plants, it is estimated that 80
percent of the dry-cleaning in 1980 will be accomplished
using synthetic solvents.  The larger, commercial plants
using petroleum solvents will comprise only 20 percent of
the market.

Emissions Sources and Pollutants. Older synthetic solvent
plants, which are using separate vessels for cleaning and
drying, emit about 105 kg of hydrocarbons per metric ton of
textiles.  The modern synthetic solvent plants combine the
cleaning and drying operation utilizing one vessel, a
tumbler that is equipped with a condenser for vapor solvent
recovery.  Emissions from the single-vessel unit average
about *7 kg per metric ton of textiles.  Plants utilizing
activated- carbon absorption systems for further vapor
recovery can reduce the emissions to 38 kg per metric ton
for the older plants, and about 25 kg per metric ton for the
modern plants.  These emissions can be reduced further  (by
30 to 50 percent)  by well-maintained equipment and good
operating procedures by personnel.

Emissions from petroleum-solvent plants can be as high as
154 kg of solvent per metric ton of textiles.  Although
there are adsorption units commercially available for
petroleum-solvent machines, none have been installed to
date.  However, it is estimated that these adsorption units
are capable of recovering as much as 95 percent of the
evaporated petroleum solvents.

Control Technology and Costs. The dry cleaning industry
contributes to air pollution by the release of organic-
solvent vapors to the atmosphere.  The amount of solvent
emitted to the atmosphere from any one dry cleaning plant is
dependent upon the equipment design solvent used, the length
of certain operations in the cleaning process, the
precautions used by the operating personnel, and the
quantity of clothes cleaned.  The most important of these
                           2-223

-------
items are the precautions used and the weight of the clothes
cleaned.  Because of the higher capital investment required
for emission controls on petroleum-solvent plants, it is
believed that all new plants will use synthetic solvents,
and that 50 percent of the petroleum-naptha solvent plants
will shut down or convert to synthetic solvent operations by
1980.  Futhermore, increasing solvent costs will provide an
incentive for better evaporative emission control.

Annualized control costs and industry operating statistics
are detailed in Table 3-38-1.
                           2-224

-------
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INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HEATING

Operating Characteristics and Capacities. The majority of
commerical and industrial heating is accomplished by hot
water and steam boilers.  Although hot air furnaces are
utilized for space heating, these units are fired on gas or
distillate oil and they generally do not contribute
.significantly regional air pollution.

Commercial equipment normally is defined as having a
capacity in the range of 0.05 to 2.11 million kg cal per
hour.  Industrial equipment normally is defined as equipment
having a capacity in the range  2.11 to 169 million kg cal
per hour.  These ranges are loosely defined and in practice
they often overlap; the equipment size distribution by
location and fuel type is not available.

The estimated 1974 installed capacity of commercial and
industrial boilers is 10 x 10ls kg cal per year based upon a
1967 inventory and assumed growth rates of 1.5 percent per
year for commercial units and t percent per year for
industrial units.

Emission Sources and Pollutants. Pollutants emitted by
fossil-fuel combustion are a function of fuel composition,
efficiency of combustion, and the specific combustion
equipment being used.  Particulate levels are related to the
ash content of the fuel, and sulfur oxides levels are
related to the sulfur content of the fuel.  Emissions of
nitrogen oxides result not only from the high-temperature
reaction of atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen in the
combustion zone, but also from  partial combustion of the
nitrogenous compounds contained in the fuel; thus, levels
are dependent both on combustion equipment design and upon
fuel nitrogen.  Carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, and
particulate levels are dependent on the efficiency of
combustion as it is affected by combustion equipment design
and operation.  Accordingly, natural gas and distillate oil
are considered clean fuels because of their low ash and
sulfur contents^ and also because they are relatively easy
to burn.  In contrast, coal  (and some residual oilsy contain
significant amounts of sulfur and ash, require more
sophisticated combustion equipment, and are more difficult
to burn than the clean fuels.

The estimated uncontrolled emission factors and average
emission factors, as required by the State Implementation
Plans  (SIP) for commercial and  industrial boilers, are
listed below and they are based on the following assumptions
and conditions:
                           2-226

-------
  •  The sulfur contents of coal, residual oil,  and
     distillate oil are assumed to be  3,  2, and  0.2  percent
     by weight, respectively.

  •( The ash content of coal  is assumed to be  12 percent  by
     weight.

  •  The difference in particulate emissions factors between
     commercial and industrial coal-burning installations
     probably is related to differences in equipment design.

In the following tabulation of emissions  factors, the
factors within parenthesis indicate those required or
allowed by SIP where applicable:
          Emission Factors  (kg per million kg cal)

Commercial          Particulate s         Sulfur Oxides

Coal                    1.8                    8.6
                       (1.08)                  (5.8)

Residual oil            0.29                   U.O
                       (1.08)                  (2.0)

Distillate Oil          0.18                   0.36
                       (1.08)                  (0.43)

Gas                     0.032                  0.0011
                       (1.08)

Industrial

Coal                   11.7                    8.6
                       (0.63)                  (5.7)

Residual Oil            0.29                   H.O
                       (0.63)                  (2.0)

Distillate Oil          0.18                   0.36
                       (0.63)                  (O
Gas                    0.031                  0.0011
                       (0.63)


Control Technology and Costs. It is apparent that equipment
fired with gas and distillate oil essentially meets all of
the air pollution regulations.  The most cost-effective
control technology has been switching from coal and high-


                           2-227

-------
sulfur residual oil to the less-polluting fuels.  The
current shortages and projected price rises for natural gas
and 'distillate oils, and the proposed ban on switching to
these fuels will require implementation of other control
technologies in many cases.

Estimates of control costs are based on the assumption that
for commercial boilers, fuel switching from coal and high-
sulfur residual oil to low-sulfur residual oil is
attainable, and that for industrial boilers, fuel switching
from high-sulfur residual oil to low-sulfur residual oil is
attainable.  Alternative control technologies for coal-fired
industrial boilers include dual alkaline scrubbers for
sulfur oxides and particulates control.  For the coal-fired
boilers, flue gas treatment appears plausible for the larger
units, while fuel switching appears realistic for the
smaller ones.  However, because no boiler size distribution
was available at this time, all industrial coal-fired
boilers were assumed to be using flue gas treatment as a
control technology; this assumption will overstate the
control costs.

Because of the present instability and future uncertainty of
fuel prices, no attempt was made to account for the cost
differential among fuels,  on a Btu or heating value basis,
there could be little difference in costs.  Although it
appears that the cost of coal and high-sulfur residual oil
would be lower than the cost of the clean fuels prior to
firing in a boiler, the higher costs of handling the coal
and high-sulfur residual oil, as well as the higher
equipment maintenance costs, are judged to offset any price
differential.  The net effect of these considerations would
produce virtually equivalent fuel costs on a consistent
basis.

The estimated control costs for the model heating plants are
given in Table 3-39-1.  Investments and annualized costs are
considerably lower for commercial than industrial
installations because of the relative ease of fuel switching
compared to the use of sophisticated flue-gas cleanup
systems.
                           2-228

-------
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Chapter ft
Mobile Source Pollution Control
            1.  MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION CONTROLS

Introduction

Mobile sources are recognized as significant contributors to
national air-quality problems.  In areas subject to
photochemical smog formation, over half the reactants can
generally be attributed to motor-vehicle emissions.
Similarly, motor-vehicle emissions frequently cause large
concentrations of carbon monoxide in high-traffie-density
urban areas during traffic peaks.  In cities with large and
busy commercial airports, aircraft operations are often the
source of high levels of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons,
nitrogen oxides, and particulates in the vicinity of the
runways and terminals.

Passenger cars and light-duty trucks have been highly
significant and visible pollutant sources because of the
large numbers in service.  Consequently, they have been
under Federal controls since the 1968 models.  Federal
controls on heavy-duty motor vehicles have been in effect
since 1970, and controls on aircraft emissions went into
effect in 197ft.

Other mobile sources, such as railroad locomotives, marine
engines, and farm, construction, and garden equipment, have
been under study by EPA, but to date, no regulations for
these sources have been promulgated or proposed.  In October
1975, a Notice of Proposal Rulemaking for motorcycle
emissions control was issued.  The regulations, if
promulgated as a final rule, would become effective in 1978.

This section describes briefly the applicable standards and
technology employed for mobile-source emission controls, and
presents estimates for the equipment, operating, and
maintenance costs of these controls.  Cost estimates are
expressed in December 197U dollars; the costs may be
inflated by a factor of 1.087 to get costs in 1975 dollars
(see Table 1-15).  Data are given for the 1968-85 time
interval.  However, emphasis is given in this report to the
1975-85 interval since the 197U Cost of Clean R.ir Report
covered the 1968-74 period in detail.
                           2-231

-------
Review of Recent Factors
Affecting Mobile Sources

A number of recent events have had significant effect or
potential effect on the cost of mobile-source emission
controls.  These included the oil crisis of early 1974, the
recession of late 1974, the high altitude certification
regulation, and the suspension of the 1977 light-duty
emission standards.  A number of other events may have
future effect on mobile-source emission control costs,
including the proposed mototcycle emission standards, the
proposed selective enforcement audit, proposed changes to
the light- and heavy-duty truck regulations, the proposed
change in evaporative emissions test procedures, the
decision of the Appeals Court on the EPA's lead phase-down
regulations, the identification of potential problem from
sulfuric acid emissions with catalysts, and the debate over
the degree of nitrogen oxide control actually needed for
clean air.

The oil crisis of late 1973 and early 1974 resulted in a
trend toward smaller cars and increased gasoline prices.  It
also resulted in increased emphasis on fuel economy, which
has affected the present and future emission control
strategies.

The recession of late 1974 resulted in a drastic reduction
in new-car sales for the last half of 1974, which continued
into 1975.

The Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of
197M,  passed by Congress on June 22, 1974, included a
provision which delayed the scheduled 1976 and 1977 emission
standards.  With less stringent emission standards for these
2 years, the cost and fuel consumption penalties will be
less than estimated in the last Cost of Clean Air Report.

The high altitude certification regulation2, promulgated on
October 18, 1974, to take effect in the 1977 model year, is
estimated to affect less than 2-1/2 percent of total car
sales.   No firm estimates have been made of the potential
cost impact of this regulation.  For this report, it is
assumed that only minor adjustments or recalibration of
ignition timing, carburetion, and engine gas recirculation
(EGR) will be required, and, consequently, it is assumed
that the cost penalty will be small, therefore, no costs for
this regulation are included in this report.

On December 23, 1974, a three-judge panel of the U.S.
Circuit Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C. set aside the
EPA lead phase-down regulation which was to go into effect
                           2-232

-------
on January 1, 1975.  The basis for the court's ruling was
that there is no conclusive scientific proof that the lead
emitted from gasoline-fueled vehicles is posing health
hazards to a substantial portion of the general population.
EPA sought a rehearing of the case (which was granted)
before the entire court rather than the three-judge court
which heard the case earlier, claiming that the judges
misinterpreted the clean Air Act and the evidence presented.
The full court heard oral arguments from EPA and plaintiffs
on May 30, 1975, and in March 1976, upheld the EPA lead
phase-down regulation.

Since it is not possible to determine at this time what the
final regulations may be, the estimated energy impact of
lead removal (refer to Table 1-6) and the estimated "fuel
price penalties" due to lead phase-down (refer to Table 1-8)
are based on the original EPA regulations.

The proposed changes in light- and heavy-duty truck
regulations call for trucks in these two classes to meet
more stringent emissions standards.  The light truck class
will also be enlarged to include all trucks under 8,500
pounds gross vehicle weight.  (The current definition
applies to trucks under 6,000 pounds.)   Test procedures for
heavier trucks will also be changed.

The debate over the need for such stringent nitrogen oxide
controls, which are scheduled for 1978 model-year cars, is
based partly on ambient-level considerations and partly on
cost-effectiveness.  Ambient-level nitrogen oxide data, upon
which the standards were originally based, were found to be
in error.  A reassessment of the ambient-level nitrogen
oxide requirements for clean air is still in progress.   The
oil crisis has shifted emphasis somewhat away from clean air
requirements to economic stability requirements.  Thus, even
if the 1978 nitrogen oxide emission standard can be
justified on the basis of clean air needs, a compromise
standard may be sought if the technology necessary to
achieve this emission standard is very expensive, fuel
wasteful or both.  It is premature to make any cost
estimates relating to relaxation of the 1978 nitrogen oxide
standard.

As provided for in the 1970 Clean Air Act and Amendments,
the auto companies filed requests for suspension of the 1977
emission standards early in January of 1975.  Hearings were
held by the Environmental Protection Agency in late January
and early February on the suspension requests, and the
decision of the Administrator was published on March 5,
1975s,*.  In summary, the decision was made to grant the
request for suspension of the 1977 hydrocarbon and carbon
                           2-233

-------
monoxide emission standards, and to establish interim
standards for the 1977 model year at the level of the
current 1975-76 hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide standards.
The 1977 legislated nitrogen oxide standard of 2.0 grams per
mile  (g./mile) was not affected.

The Administrator's decision also included a recommendation
that consideration be given to extending the interim 1977
emission standards through the 1979 model year, establishing
more stringent emission standards of 0.9 g./mile for
hydrocarbons and 9.0 g./mile for carbon monoxides for the
1980 and 1981 model years (retaining the 2.0 g./mile 1977
nitrogen oxides standards), and then going to the original
statutory standards of O.U1 g./mile for hydrocarbons and 3.1
g./mile for carbon monoxide for 1982 and beyond.  The
decision suggested that the more stringent nitrogen oxides
standard of 0.4 g./mile might not be technically supported,
but an ongoing review of oxides of nitrogen ambient level
needs might eventually show a need for lower motor vehicle
emission levels of nitrogen oxides.  Finally, the decision
included a statement of intention to establish a motor
vehicle emission standard for sulfuric acid to be applicable
starting with 1979 model year vehicles.

The primary reason given by the Administrator for suspending
the 1977 emission standards was the sulfuric acid emissions
problem.  Catalysts used on 1975 and 1976 model year
passenger cars reduced emissions of hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide by oxidation to carbon dioxide and water vapor.
Unfortunately, the same catalyst promotes oxidation of
another exhaust-gas component, sulfur dioxide (SO2J .  The
sulfur trioxide (SO^) formed combines readily with the water
vapor always present in the exhaust to yield sulfuric acid
aerosol (droplets).  This basic phenomenon, which was
identified early in 1973, has been under intensive study by
EPA and others since that time.  The decision to suspend the
1977 standards for hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide was
based on indications that the design changes manufacturers
would be likely to make on the 1977 models to meet more
stringent standards would also result in increases in
sulfuric acid emissions over levels characterizing the 1975
and 1976 models.  The suspension, and the further delays
recommended to Congress by EPA, were intended to allow time
for further study of the problem, for implementation of a
sulfuric acid emission standard, and for development by the
manufacturers of improved technology capable of achieving
low levels of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide
simultaneously with low levels of sulfuric acid.

New data obtained since the suspension decision have
confirmed the differences in sulfuric acid emission rates
                           2-23U

-------
between catalyst systems with and without substantial
amounts of excess oxygen available to the catalyst.   The
higher levels of sulfuric acid with excess oxygen, and the
expectation that such systems would be used to meet
stringent hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide standards, was the
basis for the suspension decision.  However, new data also
indicate that sulfuric acid emission levels from current
models are lower than earlier expected, and that vehicles
with high initial levels of sulfuric acid emissions may have
less adverse impact on air quality than earlier thought
because their sulfuric acid emission levels may decline
rapidly as the catalysts age.  As a result of these
findings, and in view of major limitations in current
knowledge of health effects of sulfuric acid at the
concentrations and in the particle size range expected to
result from automobiles, EPA decided in early 1976 to defer
its plans to propose a sulfuric acid emission standard until
further investigations can be carried out.
Light-Duty Vehicle Controls

EMISSION STANDARDS

Since 1968, the Federal Government has regulated the output
of air pollutants from the exhaust of new light-duty motor
vehicles.  Emission standards are expressed in terms of
maximum levels of gaseous emissions per mile permitted from
the vehicle while operating on a prescribed duty cycle.
Sampling procedures and test equipment are also prescribed
by the regulations.  While the standards apply only to new
vehicles, the certification procedure requires that test
cars meet emission standards after being driven over a
prescribed durability schedule for 50,000 miles.

Both emission levels and test procedures have been revised
periodically in several steps of increasing stringency.
Changes in the Federal Test Procedure were implemented for
the 1972 and 1975 model years.  Changes in emission levels
were prescribed by the Environmental Protection Agency (or
its predecessors)  for 1970 and 1973 (nitrogen oxides), and
were based largely on evolving technology for emission
control.

The 1970 Amendments to the Clean Air Act called for the
Administrator to prescribe Federal emission standards for
1975 and later year models effecting a 90 percent reduction
in the hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions from 1970
levels, and to prescribe the Federal standards for 1976 and
later year models effecting a 90 percent reduction in
nitrogen oxide emissions from 1971 levels.  The 1970
                           2-235

-------
Amendments further gave the Administrator the authority to
grant a 1-year suspension of the 1975 and 1976 standards
under specified conditions if it could be established that
effective control technology was not available for
compliance.

On April 11, 1973, the Administrator announced his decision5
to suspend the 1975 statutory Federal Motor Vehicle
Emissions Standards covering carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon
for a period of one year.  After extensive hearings in March
1973, the Administrator found that, although the necessary
technology existed to meet the 1975 standards based on the
use of catalytic converters, there was a high degree of
uncertainty concerning the industry's ability to certify and
produce catalyst-equipped cars in 1975 in large enough
numbers to meet production requirements for their full model
line.  In addition, in-use reliability of the catalysts had
not been established.  Because of this, it was found that
the risk of introducing catalysts on all vehicles in 1975
outweighed the risk to human health if the standards were
delayed.  The suspension was applied in two parts:

  •  National 1975 interim standards were established which
     were more strict than standards previously in force,
     but which were not anticipated to necessarily require
     catalysts on the majority of vehicles sold.

  •  More stringent standards were allowed for vehicles sold
     only in California, which would require catalysts on
     cars sold in that state.  Under the California waiver
     provision in the clean Air Act, the state was permitted
     to establish its own hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide
     standards.  A Federal standard that is more stringent
     than that applicable to cars sold elsewhere was
     prescribed for carbon monoxide.

The 1975 statutory standards as originally established were
to be applicable to all cars sold in the United states in
1976.

Similarly, the Administrator*s decision* to suspend the
statutory standards for 1976 and later models was announced
on July 31, 1973.  This decision was based on the belief
that technological success in meeting the 1976 statutory
standards could not be reasonably predicted.  In applying
this suspension, the Administrator established an interim
nitrogen oxide Federal standard of 2.0 g./mile, which is
attainable with existing advanced emission-control
technology.
                           2-236

-------
The impacts of the Energy Supply and Environmental
Coordination Act of 1974 and high-altitude emissions control
standards were discussed earlier in this chapter.

Table 1-1 summarizes the Federal exhaust-emission standards
for light-duty passenger cars and trucks in the period 1968-
78.
                           2-237

-------
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PASSENGER CARS

Control Devices, 1968-1974 Model Years. From 1968 to 1971,
compliance with Federal emission standards was achieved by
utilizing various combinations of the following:

  •  Purging of crankcase fumes through the engine

  •  Recalibration and tighter precision of carburetor fuel
     metering

  •  Engine intake air preheat and temperature control

  •  Spark retard at idle and low speeds

  •  Reduced compression ratios and elimination of
     combustion chamber pockets

  •  Air injection into the exhaust manifold

  •  Changes in valve timing and recirculation of exhaust
     gases

  •  Capture of fuel evaporative emissions in charcoal
     canisters or in the crankcase.

Table 1-2 summarizes the EPA and NAS estimates for
incremental cost increases per car due to emission control
requirement for the period 1968 to 1974.  These data, taken
from the 1973 Cost of Clean Air Report, are expressed in
current dollars.

Estimates of the aggregate initial-equipment or engine
modification costs per car for emission control through
(expressed in December 197U dollars)  are $100 (EPA) and
(HAS).  Industry estimates for that same period are $50-1120
(expressed in December 197U dollars).
                           2-239

-------
                         Table 1-2.
             Estimated Passenger Car Emission-
              Control Equipment Cost, 1968-71
Model
Year

1968-69
                                            List Price1
                       Item

           Positive crankcase ventilation
           (PCV) valve

           Inlet air temperature control

           Cumulative cost through 1969

1970-72    Fuel evaporation control system

           Idle control solenoid

           Carburetor changes

           Hardened valves and seats (for
           unleaded gasoline)

           Transmission control system

           Ignition timing

           Choke heat bypass

           Compression ratio changes

           Cumulative costs through 1972

1973-71    Exhaust gas recirculation
           (EGR), 11-1«» percent

           Speed controlled spark timing

           Precision cams, bores, pistons

           Transmission changes

           Cumulative costs through 1971

»   List price includes both dealer and manufacturers
     profits, expressed in current dollars.
2   From Reference 7.
3   From Reference 8.
EPA*
$ 0.40
5.00
$5.40
13.50
11.10
3.00
2.00
--
--
--
--
$35.00
26.00
26.00
—
--
$87.00
NAS3
$ 2.85
3.80
$ 6.65
11.30
4.75
0.95
1.90
3.80
0.95
4.18
1.90
$39.38
9.50
0.95
3.80
0.95
$54.53
                           2-240

-------
Control Devices, 1975-1976 Model Years. When the 1975
Statutory Standards were suspended for 1 year9 and replaced
with less stringent interim standards, it became apparent
that two types of emission-control systems could be used for
the 1975 model year.  These were: (1) oxidation catalyst-
equipped systems, and (2)  advanced engine modifications
systems.  The oxidation catalyst systems have been preferred
by the industry, and approximately 85 percent of the 1975
model year sales included catalysts.  Other changes and
additions for some 1975 model-year cars included:

  •  Quick-heat manifold

  •  High-energy ignition

  •  Advanced carburetors

  •  Air injection.

Since the 1976 emission standards10 called for the same
hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide levels as
the 1975 interim standards, only minor changes in emission
control systems were made from 1975 models.  Proportional
exhaust gas recirculation may be introduced in some models,
and fewer catalysts may be used  (estimated at 80 percent of
sales).

Estimates of the initial equipment or engine modification
costs per car for emission control for the 1975 and 1976
model years are $200 (EPA estimate in 1975 dollars), $159
(NAS), and $100-$«50 (Industry).

Control Devices, 1977 Model Year. With the suspension of
1977 emission standards on March 5, 1975, and the setting of
interim standards for hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide at the
1975-76 levels, and nitrogen oxide at a level of 2.0 g./mile
(which is 35 percent lower than the 1975-76 level), the
automobile companies should be able to meet the 1977
standards with only minor modifications to engines and
control devices.  These modifications could take the form of
increased use of secondary air for catalyst operation,
improved exhaust gas recirculation, ignition timing
modification, or modified catalysts with decreased use of
secondary air.  EPA has estimated the incremental cost to
meet 1977 emission standards will be $15.

Control Devices, 1978 Model Year. With the implementation of
the 1978 Federal emission standards calling for considerably
lower hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide
levels than the 1977 values, additional control technology
will be required.  The capability of many different systems

-------
to achieve the 1978 emission standards has been
investigated; some of these systems involve the use of
alternative  (noninternal-combustion Otto cycle) engines
(e.g., Rankine cycle, Brayton cycle, Diesel, Stirling).
Such systems are not considered candidates because
insufficient lead time remains to mass produce a significant
number of passenger cars powered by alternative engines for
the 1978 model year, and furthermore, no vehicle powered by
an alternative engine has yet demonstrated the capability to
meet all of the requirements of the Clean Air Act.

Several systems that are applicable to modified conventional
internal-combustion engines have demonstrated the capability
to meet the emission levels required for 1978 at low
mileage.  These include:

  *  Dual catalysts  (nitrogen oxide reduction with advanced
     oxidation catalyst)

  •  Three-way catalysts with feedback controls

  •  Statified charge engine with oxidation catalyst

  •  Thermal reactors plus nitrogen oxide reducing catalyst.

At this time, the dual and three-way catalyst systems have
received the most attention and are considered the most
advanced of the above options.  Use of nitrogen oxide-
reduction catalysts in dual catalyst systems will require
recalibration of the carburetion and different plumbing of
the air-injection system.  Addtional changes that might be
used for the 1978 model year include addition of fuel
evaporation techniques and use of proportional exhaust-gas
recirculation.  Estimates of the cumulative initial-
equipment or engine modification costs per car for emission
control for the 1978 to 1980 model years are $135 (EPA),
$30U (NAS), and S315-J950 (Industry).

Summary of Estimated Emission Control Equipment Costs. Table
1-3 summaries the various estimates for incremental cost
increases per car due to emission control requirements for
the period 1968 to 1985; data in this table were obtained
primarily from Reference 11.
                           2-212

-------
                         Table 1-3.
          Estimated Passenger Car Emission-Control
           Equipment Costs, 1968-1980 Model Years

                    List Price1 (December 1974 Dollars)
Model Year          EPA3        NAS3     Industry2

Cumulative costs    100           84       50-120
through 1974»

1975/76 incremental 100           75       50-330
costs

1977 incremental     15
costs

1978 incremental    220          145      215-500
costs

Cumulative costs    435          304      315-950
through 1985

1  List price includes dealer and factory profits.
2  Prom data submitted by the domestic manufacturers.
3  Data obtained primarily from Reference 11.
*  Restated from Table 1-2 in 1974 dollars.
Estimated Maintenance Costs Due to Emission controls. The
additional per vehicle maintenance costs attributable to
emission-control devices has been estimated by EPA to be $16
per year from model years 1968 through 1974.  For the 1975,
1976, and 1977 model years, there are certain benefits in
reduced maintenance cost derived from the use of high-energy
ignition systems, long-life exhaust systems, and unleaded
fuel.  For the 1975-77 model years, the annual maintenance
cost benefits are estimated to be $23 per catalyst-equipped
car over 1974 cars; thus, the net maintenance cost over the
pre-controlled cars is a $7 benefit.

Additional maintenance costs are anticipated for the 1978
through 1980 model year period because of the greater
complexity expected in the emission control systems required
to meet the lower hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide standards.
This increase over 1975 cars is estimated to be $8 per car,
resulting in a net annual-maintenance cost of $1 per car, or
about the same as pre-controlled cars.

Annual maintenance cost penalties for the various model
years are shown in Table 1-4.  The estimated costs for 1975
                           2-243

-------
through 1977 are based on assuming that 85 percent of
vehicles sold in the United States in 1975 were catalyst-
equipped, 80 percent in 1976, and 75 percent in 1977.
                         Table 1-4.
          Estimated Incremental Maintenance Costs
        for Passenger Car Emission Control Systems,
                   1968-1980 Model Years
              Annual Incremental Maintenance
                                       Net
Model year

1968-74

1975-77

1978-80
Cost Increase  (Decrease) per Vehicle*  costs
               $16

               (23)8

                83
$16

(7)

1
1 Additional cost over normal maintenance due to emission
  control.  1968-74, current dollars; 1975-80, December
  1971 dollars.

* Assuming oxidation catalysts used all three model years,
  and based on 1975 interim standards (1.5 HC, 15 CO, 3.1
  NOx).

3 Assuming dual catalysts  (oxidation plus reduction)
  to be used, and based on statutory HC, CO, and
  NOx levels (0.41, 3.4, and 0.4).  One catalyst change
  in 10 years assumed.
FUEL-CONSUMPTION PENALTIES

The average fuel economy of motor vehicles decreased
gradually from the 1968 through the 1974 model cars.  This
change can be attributed to variations in vehicle weight,
engine size, optional equipment, and the effects of
emission-control equipment.  In particular, the specific
emission-control measures that adversely affect fuel
consumption are retarded ignition timing, reduced
compression ratio, and exhaust-gas recirculation.

Fuel economy penalties for the 1968 to 1973 model years were
obtained from an EPA study of passenger car fuel economy
involving tests of nearly 4,000 vehicles ranging from 1957
production models to 1975 prototypes.  The fuel economy loss
for 1973 model cars decreased over pre-1968 cars by about
                           2-244

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10.1 percent.  For 1974 models, fuel economy decreased 10.4
percent from the pre-1968 baseline, based upon estimates
from 1974 certification data and 1974 sales data for the
first 6 months.  A shift toward lighter cars was observed in
the first 6 months sales, but the trend was reversed for the
remainder of the year.

Various industry sources as well as the EPA have indicated
that catalytic systems on most 1975 vehicles resulted in
fuel economy superior to 1973 and 1974 model-year cars.  The
EPA-measured fuel economy data for 1975 certification
vehicles, when weighted for the estimated vehicle sales,
resulted in a gain of 12.2 percent over 1974 models, or a
slight fuel economy benefit over pre-1968 baseline data of
approximately 1.0-2.0 percent.

An additional fuel economy improvement was shown in the 1976
model year, resulting in an estimated fuel economy gain of
about 12.8 percent over pre-1968 cars.  No change in fuel
economy is anticipated for the 1977 model year (when the NOx
standard drops from 3.1 to 2.0 g./mile)  due to the expected
extensive use of proportional exhaust gas recirculation
(PEGR)  and other technological improvements.

If statutory emissions standards are to be achieved for the
1978 model year automobiles, it is believed that meeting the
more stringent hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen
oxide standards will result in a 15 to 20 percent fuel
economy loss over 1976 cars, or a fuel economy penalty of
about 2.0-6.0 percent over pre-1968 cars.  These estimates
are very uncertain at this time because of the inability of
the major auto companies to develop an emission control
system which is able to meet the statutory emission
standards in conjunction with good fuel economy.   However,
Volvo certified a four cylinder model that met the 1977
California standards with a three-way (0.4/9.0/1.5 g./mile
for HC/CO/NOx)  catalyst at emission levels below the Federal
statutory standards.

No additional fuel economy gains or penalties are estimated
for model years 1979 through 1985.  These estimates of
future fuel economy are only the change in economy due to
emission controls.  In separate efforts to improve fuel
economy, the auto companies are reducing the size and weight
of vehicles in their existing model line, improving engine
efficiency, changing axle ratios, and introducing new
lighter, smaller models.  These projects will raise the
average fuel economy of all affected models, regardless of
the potential effect of pollution controls.  The principal
impetus for these developments is the Energy Policy and
Conservation Act (P.L. 94-163)  passed and signed in December
                           2-245

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1975 that required all manufacturers to meet fuel economy
standards (on the average) of 18, 19 and 20 miles per gallon
for their 1978, 1979, and 1980 models, respectively.  The
effect of emission controls on passenger-car fuel economy
for the period 1968 to 1985 is summarized in Table 1-5.
Fuel economy data were obtained from References 12, 13, and
                           2-2U6

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                         Table 1-5
            Effective Emission controls on Fuel
               Economy of Passenger vehicles

                    Yearly Incremental         Fuel Economy
Model Year          Change in Fuel             Penalty over
Standards           Economy, %                 Baseline,  %*

1957-67
(Uncontrolled)
  1968                    -4.2                       4.2
  1969                    -1.9                       5.9
  1970                    + 2.4                  .     3.9
  1971                    -2.U                       5.9
  1972                    -1.5                       7.3
  1973                    -3.0                      10.1
  1974                    -0.3                      10.4
  1975                   +13.5                      -1.7
  1976                   +12.0                     -13.0
  1977                     0.0                     -13.0
  1978*                -15 to +203                   4.7

1  Baseline city fuel economy of 1967 model year car =
  13.5 mpg.  All percentages shown are based on Urban
  Cycle Fuel Economy tested on the 1975 EPA Federal Test
  Procedures.

8  Statutory standards in effect for 1978 as of June 30,  1975,
  were 0.41 HC, 3.4 CO, 0.4 NOx (all g./mile).   Standards
  being reconsidered by Congress;  any modification will  affect
  fuel economy of all vehicles.

3  Most of this fuel economy loss in the first year of the full
  statutory standards would be due to the stringent NOx
  control.  The 15 to 20% fuel economy penalty assumes use
  of 3-way or dual catalyst systems of adequate conversion
  efficiency and durability.  However, control technology
  to meet the statutory NOx standard has not yet been fully
  demonstrated on all models and requires further develop-
  ment.  It must also be assumed that fuel economy would
  improve as technology develops,  but rate of such improve-
  ment cannot be estimated at this time.
                           2-247

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LIGHT-DUTY TRUCKS

For this report, it is assumed that emission control
equipment costs for light-duty trucks are the same as for
passenger cars for 1973 and 1971. Beginning with the 1975
model year, less stringent standards were set for light-duty
trucks than for passenger cars.  Consequently it is assumed
in this report that emission control costs for model years
1975-85 will be only moderately higher than for the 1973-74
model years ($150 per car in December 1971 dollars).

Annual maintenance costs for 1973 and 1971 model year light-
duty trucks are estimated to be $16 per vehicle.  For the
1975 to 1985 model year period, it is estimated that there
will be a maintenance cost benefit of $5 per vehicle due to
the use of catalysts, low-maintenance emission-control
components, and unleaded fuel in a significant portion of
light-duty trucks sold in that period.

Fuel economy of light-duty trucks is expected to be the same
as for light-duty passenger cars for 1973 and 1971.  A fuel
economy gain of 6 percent is estimated for the 1975 model
year, and no change for the 1976 to 1985 period.

The costs calculated in this report all assume that current
regulations for light-duty trucks will remain the same.
However, EPA proposed in February 1976 to make two
significant changes to existing regulations beginning with
the 1978 model year.  First, the size of the light-duty
truck class would be increased from the present class which
includes all trucks with gross vehicle weight ratings of 0
to 6,000 pounds to an expanded class to include all trucks
weighing between 0 and 8,500 pounds.  Second, the proposal
calls for emissions standards for light trucks to be reduced
slightly from existing levels.  If the proposed action is
promulgated as a final rule, the result would be to increase
the cost estimates made in this report for the years 1978 to
1985.  All 6,000- to 8,500-pound trucks that are currently
considered heavy-duty trucks and are controlled to less
stringent standards must be equiped with additional
pollution control devices, though the 0 to 6,000-pound
trucks should not require any additional equipment to meet
the lower standard.  The fuel economy benefits  (penalties)
that may occur as a result of the proposed action are not
certain at this time.
                           2-218

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FUEL COST INCREASES

Two EPA regulations affecting fuel costs are discussed
below.  One pertains to requiring gasoline marketers to make
available 91 research octane number lead-free gasoline by
July 1, 1974, for use in oxidation catalyst-equipped
vehicles.  The other EPA regulation required that the lead
content of leaded gasoline be reduced to an average of 0.5
grams per gallon  (g./gal.) by January 1, 1979.  This latter
regulation, aimed at reducing lead in the atmosphere for
health purposes, was recently upheld by the courts as
discussed earlier in this chapter.  Thus, for the purposes
of this report, it is assumed that lead phase-down will take
place as called for by EPA.

The promulgated schedule stretches the lead removal over a
relatively long period of time and the allowable lead
content of leaded gasoline in the national pool is not
significantly lowered until 1977-78.  Two of the most
important reasons for the lengthy promulgated schedule are
to ensure an adequate margin of industry construction
capability and to minimize refinery raw material penalties.

For the next several years, the lead content of leaded
gasoline will remain relatively high according to the
regulation.  Latest national projections on the allowable
lead content of leaded gasolines are summarized in the
following display, which shows the lead phase-down schedule
as planned and estimates of the lead-free requirement.


       Anticipated Effect of Lead Phase-Down Schedule

              Promulgated                   Allowable Lead
              Lead Phase-                   in Leaded
Calendar      Down (grams/   Lead-Free      Gasoline  (grams/
Year          gallon)         Portion (%)    gallon)

1974             	             7          2.0 to 2.2
1975             1.7            15             2.0
1976             1.4            30             2.0
1977             1.0            44             1.78
1978             0.8            51             1.63
1979             0.5            63             1.27
1980             0.5            72             1.11
The energy impact resulting from the EPA lead-free and low-
lead regulations for the period 1975 to 1980 is presented in
Table 1-6 in terms of a crude oil penalty.  The data in
                           2-249

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Table 1-6 are obtained from an EPA analysis of lead phase-
down regulations in response to a FEO review dated April 9.
197i».is
                           2-250

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                        Table  1-6.
          Energy Impact of EPA»s Lead Regulations
                      LM0.,r..

                        ?                !          tS,
1977        15.246        ,3                0           4

5        iS        9-              I
                         2-251

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AGGREGATE NATIONAL COSTS FOR
LIGHT-DOTY VEHICLE EMISSION CONTROLS

Costs to the nation for light-duty vehicle emission control
will be comprised of the aggregate of equipment,
maintenance, and fuel-consumption cost increments
attributable to the control devices.  Since the various
costs attributable to emission controls are different for
each model year, total costs to the nation have been
estimated separately for each model year using vehicle-
population data for previous years and projections for
future years.

Vehicle Population Estimates. Registration data16 are
available at this time for vehicle model years up to 1974
for each calendar year through 1971.  Estimates of vehicle
populations for future years are based on the U.S.
passenger-vehicle sales projections17 shown in Table 1-7.
These projections reflect the major downturn in new-car
sales which began late in 1973.  Using these projections and
typical scrappage-rate histories*8,19 for previous model
years, the vehicle population trends shown in Figure 1-1 are
estimated.  As shown, uncontrolled passenger vehicles will
constitute only about 5 percent of the population by 1980,
and 29 percent of the vehicles will have been manufactured
under controls imposed by the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1970.
                           2-252

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Model Year

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Notes:
           Table 1-7.
Historical and Projected Sales
     of Passenger Vehicles

               Sales
               (Millions of Vehicles)

                     9.40
                     9.53
                     8.46
                     9.
                    10,
                    11.
                     8.
                     8.
                    10.
                    11.
                     9.
                     9.
                    10,
96
61
46
9
6
7
0
8
3
7
                    11.26
                    11.51
                    11.78
                    11.94
                    12.16
1.   1968 to 1973 sales data based on data from Automotive
     News 1974 Almanac Issue, April 24, 1974.

2.   1974 sales. Automotive News, March 3, 1975.

3.   1976-80 predicted sales from the Chase Econometric
     Associates study for EPA/CEQ, July 1976.

4.   Estimates sales of automobiles that are consistent
     with the BLS projection of GNP during the 1980-85
     period.  Projection of consumer pruchases of
     automobiles from the SEAS system as of July 7, 1975.
                           2-253

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                     Figure 1-1.
         Estimated Passenger-car Population
120
   1968      1970
1972        1974

       CALENDAR YEAR
1976        1978
1980
                         2-251

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In estimating light-duty truck population, it is assumed
that survival factors for presently registered light trucks
will be slightly higher than those for passenger cars2°, and
that new registrations of light trucks will follow the same
pattern as passenger cars for the interval 1974-85.

Estimated Total Costs, 1968-1985. A breakdown of annual
national cost estimates for passenger car emission control
is presented in Table 1-8.  Equipment costs for each
calendar year are taken as the equipment cost attributable
to the new model-year vehicles.  Maintenance and equipment
costs for each calendar year are attributable to all
controlled vehicles over 1-year old in the vehicle
population for that year.  Costs attributable to fuel price
penalties are applied to all gasoline consumed by passenger
vehicles for the affected years (assuming continued
utilization of catalytic converters).  Similarly, a
breakdown of annual national cost estimates for light-duty
truck emission control is presented in Table 1-9.
                           2-255

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                                Table 1-8.
              Estimated  National  Costs Attributable
               to Light-Duty Passenger Car Emission
                         Controls,  1968-1985

    Annual  Incremental  Expenditures  (Billions  of Dollars
 Calendar
 Year

 1963
 1969
 1970
 197!
 1972
 1973
 1974
 1975
 1976
 1977
 1978
 1979
 1930
 1981
 1932
 1983
 1984
 1935

1968-84
1.976-85
Equipment

   0.05
   0.05
   0.30
   0.35
   0.37
   1.00
   0.77
   1.72
   2.14
   2.37
   4.26
    05
    65
    69
    01
    12
    19
  5.29

 47.70
 42.97
Maintenance

   0.15
   0.30-
   0.43
   0.59
   0.75   --
   0.93
   1 .08
   0.98
   0.85
   0.71
   0.63
   0.54
   0.44
   0.34
   0.27
   0.22
   0.19
   0.17
Fuel
Consumption
Penalty
  0.15
  0.41
  0.56
  0.74
  0.98
  1.39
  2.33
  2.17
  1.45
  0.31
  0.07
  0.35
  0.61
  0.83
  1.02
  1.25
   61
              Fuel
              Price
              Penalty
  9.58
  4.36
 1
 2.00

18.23
 9.50
0.65
0.67
0.32
0.83
0.83
0.96
0.98
1 .00
1.02
1,04
                 1.06

                 9.83
                 9. 18
   .w, . «..•. u".'
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Calendar
Year

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1931
1982
1983
1984
1985

1973-85
1976-85
                                      Table  1-9.
                    Estimated  National Costs  Attributable
             to Light-Duty Truck Emission Controls, 1973-1985

                Annual Incremental  Expenditunes  (Billions  of Dollars )
Equipment   Maintenance
   0.17
   0.13
   0.20
   0.26
   0.28
   0.26
   0.26
   0.29
   0.29
   0.29
   0.30
   0.30
   0.31

   3.34
   2.84
 0.03
 0.05
 0.05
 0.04
 0.03
 0.02
 0.01
    0
(0.01)
(0.02)
(0.03)
(0.04)
(0.05)

 0.08
(0.05)
Fuel
Consumption
Penalty

   0.07
   0.21
   0.28
   0.38
   0.48
   0.57
   0.66
   0.76
   0.87
   0.98
   1.10
   1 .22
   1.35

   8.43
   8.37
                             Fuel
                             Price
                             Penalty
0.05
0.07
0.11
0.14
0.16
0.22
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.35
         Annual
         Total
 0.27
 0.39
 0.58
 0.75
 0.90
 0.99
  .09
  .27
  .40
  .53
  .68
  .83
0.39

2.33
2.28
1 ,
1 ,
1 ,
1 ,
1 ,
1 ,
2.00
14.68
13.44
         Cutnulat iv»
         Total
 0.27
 0.66
 1 .24
 1.99
 2.89
 3.88
 4.97
 6.24
 7.64
 9.17
10.85
12.63
14.68
   Trucks less  than 6.000 pounds gross  vehicle weight.
   Interest  is  not applied to annual  expenditures.

   Current dollars used 1973-74: December  1974 dollars used 1975-85.

   Fuel •prices  assumed:  1973. 41.6 cents/gal.: 1974-75,  55 cents/gal.: 1976, 61 cents/gal.I
   1977,  63  cents/gal.: 1978. 65 cents/gal.:  1979, 67 cents/gal.:  1980. 69 cents/gal.

   Based  on  fuel  cost  increase due to lead-free and phasedown regulations of 1.09 cents/gal.
   1.3 cents/gal, for  1977-79. and 1.5  cents/gal, for 1980.
                                                                            for 1975-76
                                        2-257

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Heavy-Duty vehicle Controls

EMISSION STANDARDS

separate emission-control regulations have been in effect
since 1970 for new heavy-duty gasoline and diesel truck
engines manufactured for use in over-the-highway trucks and
buses of over 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.  Trucks
under 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight are currently
considered light-duty vehicles and have been dealt with in
the previous paragraphs of this section.  (Newly proposed
regulations would increase the light-duty class to 8,500
pounds.)  Heavy-duty truck engine certification procedures
are performed on the engine itself and do not pertain to the
vehicle as in the case of light-duty truck and passenger car
regulations.

Federal regulations for emissions from heavy-duty gasoline
engines are shown in Table 1-10.  For 1970 through 1973,
regulations covered hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emissions measured in terms of average concentrations in the
engine exhaust over a nine-mode, constant-speed, variable-
load dynamometer cycle,  in 197U, new standards went into
effect which are based on the same test procedure, but in
which emissions are reported in terms of grams per
horsepower-hour (g./hp-hr).  The sum of hydrocarbon and
nitrogen oxide emissions is limited to 16 g./hp-hr, while
the standard for carbon monoxide is to g./hp-hr for 1974 and
later model-year heavy-duty gasoline engines.

Heavy-duty diesel truck engine Federal standards are also
shown in Table 1-10.  Through 1970-73, standards covered
smoke emissions only.  In 1974, the standards were revised
to include hydrocarbon, nitrogen oxide, and carbon monoxide
emissions as well as more stringent smoke emissions.  The
permissible gaseous-emission levels are the same as for
heavy-duty gasoline engines for 1974, but the test procedure
is different.  For diesels, emissions are averaged over a
13-mode, variable-speed, variable-load dynamometer cycle.

EPA is considering making changes to the heavy-duty engine
standards and test procedures which would become effective
for model year 1979.  A Notice of Proposed Rulemaking is -to
be published in the near future.  Cost of control estimates
made in this report do not reflect the implementation of
these proposed rules, nor do they reflect the change in the
light-duty truck class to include all trucks with gross
vehicle weights below 8,500 pounds which has been proposed
for 1978.  This regulation would, if promulgated, reduce the
size of the heavy-duty truck class subject to the heavy-duty
                           2-258

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standards and would therefore reduce the cost estimates for
achieving heavy-duty emissions standards.


                        Table 1-10.
              Federal Standards for Heavy-Duty
            Gasoline and Diesel-Engine Emissions
Pollutant
    Emission Standards1
    1970-73     1971

Gasoline Engines
Hydrocarbons (HC)
Oxides of nitrogen(NOx)
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Smoke:
  Opacity in acceler-
     ating mode
  Opacity in lugging
     mode
  Peak opacity in
     either mode
HC + NOx
CO
    275 ppm

    1.5 %

 Diesel Engines
    20%
16 g./hp-hr

UO g./hp-hr



20%

15%

50%

16 g./hp-hr
HO g./hp-hr
i  For use in vehicles of more than 6,000 pounds gross
  vehicle weight.
HEAVY-DOTY GASOLINE ENGINE CONTROLS

The emission control technology used for heavy-duty gasoline
engines through 1973 is similar to that employed for light-
duty trucks and passenger cars through the 1972 model year.
In fact, many heavy-duty gasoline engines are derivatives of
passenger car engines.  For 197ft, the nitrogen oxide control
standards were generally attainable without the use of EGR,
although some EGR engines were certified in the previous
year to meet California standards for 1973 which were at the
same level as Federal standards for 1974.

No detailed equipment cost estimates have been made by EPA
for heavy-duty gasoline truck engine emission controls,  in
the absence of such estimates, it is assumed for purposes of
this report that the per-vehicle emission control equipment
cost increment of 1970-73 engines is equivalent to that for
                           2-259

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1970 model-year passenger car engines minus the cost of fuel
evaporation controls, equalling $24 per vehicle.  It is
further assumed that the 197H and following year control
equipment costs will be equivalent to that for a 1973
passenger car engine less the cost of EGR and evaporative
controls, or $50.00 per vehicle.

Incremental annual maintenance costs for heavy-duty gasoline
truck engine controls for all years are assumed to be the
same as passenger car costs for model years 1968 through
197U, or $16 per vehicle.  Fuel consumption penalties are
estimated to be 3 percent for the 1970-1973 period, and 5
percent for 197<» and beyond.  A baseline fuel economy of 8.5
mpg is assumed.  Estimates of total per-vehicle costs
attributable to emission controls for this class of trucks
are summarized in Table 1-11.
                           2-260

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 Calendar
 Year

 1970
 1971
 1972
 1973
 1974
 1975
 1976
 1977
 1978
 1979
 1980
 1931
 19B2
 1933
 1984
 1985

 1970-85
1976-85
                                  Table .1-11.
                  Estimated  National Costs  Attributable
                   to Gasoline-Fueled Heavy-Duty Truck*
                        Emission  Controls, 1970-1985

              Annual Incremental  Expenditures  (Billions of Dollars )
Equipment   Maintenance
    .02
    .02
    .02
    .02
    .04
   0.04
   0.05
   O.OS
    .05
    .05
    .05
    .05
   0.05
   0.05
   0.05
   0.05

   0.66
   0.50
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
 0.01
 0.02
  .03
  .05
  .06
 o.oa
 0.10
 0.11
 0.13
 0.14
 0.16
 0. 13
 0.20
 0.22
0.24
0.26

 1 .99
1.74
Fuel
Consumption
Penalty

   0.01
   0.03
   0.04
   0.07
   0.13
   0.17
   0.25
   0.31
   0.37
   0.44
   0.50
   0.55
   0.60
   0.65
   0.70
•   0.75

   5.57
   5.12
                                      Fuel
                                      Pr ice
                                      Penalty
                             0.09
                             0.11
                             O.t6
                             0.18
                             0.19
                             0.24
                             0.28
                              .32
                              .36
                             0.40
                             0.44
                                        I
                                        2.77
                                        2.68
Annual
Total

   0.04
   0.07
   0.09
   0.14
   0.23
   0.38
   0.51
   0.63
   0.73
   0.82
   0.95
   1 .06
   1.17
   1 .28
   1.39
   1.50

 10.99
 10.04
Cumulative
TotaJ

   0.04
   0.11
'   0.20
   0.34
   0.57
   0.95
   1 .
   2.
   2.
  46
  09
  82
3.64
4.59
  65
  82
  5
  6
  8. 10
  9.49
 10.99
   Trucks over 6,000 pounds gross  vehicle weight.        .

   Current dollars used 1970-74; December 1974 dollar's  used 1975-1985.

   Fuel prices assumed:  1970.  44.3 cents/gal.:  1971. 43.4 cents/gal.; 1972, 41.5 cents/gal.5
   1973, 41.6 cents/gal.;  1974-75, 55 cents/gal.;  1976,  61 cents/gal.: 1977, 63 cents/gal.;
   1978, 65 cents/gal.: 1979. 67 cents/gal.:  1980,  69 cents/gal.
   Based on fuel  cost  increase  due to lead-free  and phasedown regulations  of 1.09 cents/gal,  for  1975-76»|
   1.3 cents/gal, for  1977-79.  1.5 cents/gal,  for  1980.
  Interest not applied  to annual expenditures.
                                     2-261

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It is estimated that the population of 1970-73 trucks of
this class will peak at about 1.5 million in 1973, and that
the total controlled population will have reached
approximately 9.0 million in 1980.  Estimated costs for
heavy-duty gasoline truck Federal emission controls are
presented in Table 1-12.
                        Table 1-12.
    Estimated Per-Vehicle Cost Penalties for Heavy-Duty
              Gasoline Engine Emission Control
Incremental
Cost Item

Emission-control
equipment cost

Annual maintenance

Fuel consumption
penalty1
      Model Years
1970-73     1974-85
   (1974 Dollars)
   $24



    16

     3%
$50


 16

  5%
»  Based on 8.5 mpg for pre-1970 trucks,
HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL ENGINE CONTROLS

Both smoke and gaseous emission standards, including those
for 1971, have been attained largely through fuel-injection
system modifications.  Nitrogen oxide and smoke are the more
difficult emissions to control; even uncontrolled diesels
are usually well within carbon monoxide standards.
Equipment cost penalties are considered nominal;  further, it
is estimated that no fuel consumption penalties have been
incurred.  Accordingly, no national cost penalty is
attributed to diesel-truck engine emission controls.


Aircraft Emission Controls

Aircraft emissions have been identified as significant
contributors to the regional burden of pollution in
comparison to other sources which will have to be controlled
to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Airports are concentrated sources of pollutant emissions
which will in many cases reduce local air quality to
unsatisfactory levels even though emissions from automobiles
                           2-262

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and stationary sources are within acceptable levels within
the general area.  That is, unless aircraft emissions are
reduced, airports will still remain intense area emitters of
pollutants, even after emissions from other area sources
have been greatly reduced.

The Clean Air Act directs the Administrator of the EPA to
"establish standards applicable to emissions of any air
pollutant from any class or classes of aircraft or aircraft
engines which in his judgment cause or contribute to air
pollution which endangers the public health or welfare.w In
July 1973, Federal emission standards and test procedures
were established for various classes of new and in-use
aircraft engines.2i These regulations are based on the need
to control emissions occurring under 3,000 feet to protect
ambient air quality in urban areas.  However, the standards
are not quantitatively derived from the air quality
considerations in affected areas but, instead, reflect EPA's
judgment as to the emission levels that will be practicable
with present and projected technology.  The requisite
technology is assumed to include advanced combustion-system
concepts for turbine engines and improved fuel systems for
piston engines.  The standards cover  (a) fuel venting
regulations beginning January 1, 197ft,  (b) smoke emission
regulations taking effect in 1974, 1976, and 1978 for
various engine classes, and (c)  gaseous emission (carbon
monoxide, hydrocarbon, and nitrogen oxide) standards for
1979 and 1981.  Gaseous emissions regulations are based on a
simulated landing-and-take off operating cycle which
includes:  (1) taxi/idle (out) ,  (2) take off, (3)  climb out,
(ft) approach, and  (5) taxi/idle (in).  Piston engines are
included in the standards beginning in  1979.

In general, the influence of the regulations will be to
contribute to the maintenance of the quality of the air in
and around major air terminals throughout the post-1979 era
in which air traffic is undergoing expansion.  The timing of
these standards will not make contributions to achievement
of ambient air-quality levels required by 1975 through the
state implementation programs.  Present aircraft emission
standards21 and their estimated cost impact2z,23 are listed
in Table 1-13.  Costs of fuel-venting and smoke emission
controls through 1978, totaling $17 million, are minor in
comparison to costs of controlling other sources in that
time period.
                           2-263

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                                   Table  1-13.
       Aircraft Emission Standards and Estimated Cost Impacts
Calendar
Year

1974
1974
1976
1978
   Standards

JT8D smoke standards.


Fuel venting  restrictions  for
   new and in-use  engines
   (1975 for  business-aircraft
   engines).

Smoke standards, new turbine .
   engines except  JT3D,  JT8D.
   and supersonic.

JT3D smoke standards.
Implementat ion
Technology

Combustor  and  fuel  nozzle
   retrofi t.

Plumbing and/or  operational
   changes.
Fuel nozzle retrofit.
Estimated Cost of
Implementation

None (already voluntari
   completed}*

$2 mil Hon.
                                                                              None.
SIS mil Hon.
1979       Gaseous emission  (HC,  CO. and
              NOx) standards  for  all
              engines manufactured.

1930       Same as 1979.

1981-35    Gaseous emission  standards
              for newly certified engines.
Sources:  EPA, References 12  and  24.
                                   Modified engine hot  section.     $66 million
                                   Same as 1979.                   $5 million ,

                                   Advanced combustor and          $8 ml 11 ion
                                      engine concepts.

                                   1985 Cumulative Total            $93 million
   Principally development  and  recertification costs.  Includes additional engine hardware costs which i
   be incurred in 1979.   Maximum  additional engine cost estimate to be:

        $10,000 per large turbine engine
          6,000 per small turbine engine over 8,000 Ib thrust
          2,000 per small turbine engine under 8,000 Ib thrust, and per  turboprop or APO engine
             52 per piston  engine.

   Estimated $2.9 million in  piston  engine fuel savings per year for 1979 and  1980 Is included.

   Estimated 53.5 million for hardware and $1.5 million for certification.
                                        2-26*

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The estimated cost of development and recertification
efforts for compliance with the 1979 gaseous-emission
standards is $66 million, and the additional engine-hardware
costs, which will be incurred in 1979, are estimated to be
$3.5 million.  The costs incurred in 1980 for compliance
with the 1979 standards are estimated to be $3.5 million for
hardware and $1.5 million for certification for a total of
$5.0 million.  The 1979 standards promulgated for piston-
type aircraft are expected to result in significant fuel
savings: $29 million over 10 years.  Credit for these
savings has been assumed at a uniform rate of $2.9 million
per year in estimating the cost of aircraft emission
controls for 1979 and 1980.  In total, cumulative national
costs through 1980 for aircraft emission control are
expected to total approximately $85 million (including $5.8
million for fuel savings) .
Discussion of Unregulated
Mobile Source Emission

As stated in the Introduction, a number of mobile sources
are presently unregulated.  These include:  railroad
locomotives, marine engines, and offroad farm, construction,
and garden equipment.

Emission inventories have been performed on many of these
unregulated mobile sources2s-ze.

As a general conclusion, most small-engined mobile sources
(such as garden equipment, outboard engines, and
snowmobiles) each contribute less than 1 percent of the
total hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide from mobile sources,
and less than 0.1 percent of the total nitrogen oxide (based
on 1970 data).  While these percentages are increasing as
passenger cars and trucks come under more stringent control,
it would not appear to be cost-effective to regulate these
mobile sources until some future time.

In a publication by HEW2«, it was estimated that the total
carbon monoxide emissions from railroad locomotives in 1968
constituted about 1.6 percent of the emissions from all
transportation sources.  Percentages for hydrocarbon, total
particulates, and sulfur oxides were 1.8, 16.7, and 12.5,
respectively.  At present, there are no proposed regulations
for railroad locomotive exhaust emissions.
                           2-265

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Total National Costs for Federal
Mobile-Source Emission Controls

Table 1-11 summarizes the total national costs attributable
to Federal regulations controlling mobile source emissions
for the period 1968-85.  The $99.67 billion light-duty
emission control costs substantially surpass other mobile-
source costs in this time period.  Total cumulative costs
for mobile-source controls are estimated to be $110.8
billion.  Costs for motorcycle controls are not included in
these estimates.
                           2-266

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                        Table 1-14.
             Estimated  Total  National Costs  for
         Mobile Source  Emission  Control,  1968-1985

      Annual National Investment and OSM  Expenditures
                    (Billions  of  Dollars*)
Calendar
Year

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1971
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1968-85
1976-85
Light-Duty  Heavy-Duty
Vehicle2    Vehicle^
Emission    Emission
Control     Control
 0.35
 0.77
 1.29
 1.68
 2.10
 3.59
 4.58
 6.11
 5.87
 5.11
 6.79
 6.85
 7.62
 8.45
 8.82
 9.30
 9.87
10.52

99.67
79.20
            0.04
            0.07
            0.09
            0.14
            0.23
            0.38
            0.51
            0.63
            0.73
            0.82
            0.95
            1.06
            1.17
            1.28
            1.39
            1. 50

           10.99
           10.04
Aircraft    Total
Emission    Annual
Control     Cost
            0.35
            0.77
            1.32
            1.75
            2.19
            3.73
            4.82
            6.48
              38
0.02
0.07

0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002

0.093
0.093
7.
7.
  6,
  5.74
   ,54
   ,74
  8.57
  9.51
 10.02
 10.58
 11.26
 12.02

110.77
 89.36
i  Current dollars used 1968-74; December 1974 dollars used
  1975-80.  Interest not applied to annual investments.

2  Includes passenger cars and trucks under 6,000 pounds
  gross vehicle weight.

3  Includes all trucks over 6,000 pounds gross vehicle
  weight.
                           2-267

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CONVERSION OF MOBILE SOURCE
CONTROL COSTS TO 1975 DOLLARS

The preceding costs estimates for mobile source air
pollution controls are expressed in December 1974 dollars.
In order to convert to December 1975 dollars, an inflation
rate of 8.7 percent was employed.  Table 1-15 shows the
major cost estimates expressed in 1975 dollars.
                        Table 1-15.
      Estimated Total National costs for Mobile Source
                Emission control, 1968-1985

      Annual National Investment and OSM Expenditures
                 (Billions of 1975 Dollars)
Years

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
197«4
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1968-85
1976-85
  Light-Duty
  Vehicle
  Emission
  Control

  0.51
  1.07
  1.72
  2.16
  2.63
  4.28
  4.98
  6.64
  6.38
  5.55
  7.38
  7.44
  8.28
  9.19
  9.59
 10. 11
 10.73
 11.43

110.07
 86.08
 Heavy-Duty
 vehicle
 Emission
 Control
 0.05
 0.09
 0.11
 0.17
 0.25
 0.41
 0.55
 0.68
 0.79
 0.89
Aircraft    Total
Emission    Annual
Control     Cost
            0.51
            1.07
            1.77
              25
  ,03
  ,15
   27
  ,39
 1.51
 1.63
11.97
10.89
0.02
0.08
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002

0.108
0. 108
            5,
            7.
            6.
  2.
  2.74
  4.45
   ,24
   ,04
   ,93
  6.23
  8.19
  8.41
  9.31
 10.34
 10.87
 11.50
 12.24
 13.06

122.15
 97.08
  Interest not applied to annual investments.
                           2-268

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References

1.   Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of
     19?q, Public Law 93-319, 93rd Congress, H.R. "U368,
     June 22, 197U.

2.   "Certification of New Vehicles Intended for Initial
     Sale at High Altitude," Federal Register, Vol. 39, No.
     203, Friday, October 18, 197«».

3.   "Decision of the Administrator on Applications for
     Suspension of 1977 Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission
     Standards," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Washington, D.C., March 5, 1975.

H.   Opening Statement by Administrator Russell E. Train on
     1977 Suspension Decision, March 5, 1975.

5.   "Decision of the Administrator on Remand From the
     United States Court of Appeals for the District of
     Columbia Circuit on Applications for Suspension of 1975
     Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission Standards," U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.,
     April 11, 1973.

6.   "Decision of the Administrator on Applications for
     Suspension of 1976 Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission
     Standards," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Washington, D.C., July 30, 1973.

7.   The Economics of Clean Air, Annual Report to Congress,
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, March 1972.

8.   Report by. the Committee on Motor Vehicle Emission^
     National Academy of Sciences, EPA contract No. 68-01-
     0
-------
     Administrator, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by
     Emission Control Technology Division, January 1975.

12.  A Report on Automotive Fuel Economy, U. s. Environmental
     Protection Agency, October 1973.

13.  Automobile Gasoline Mileage Test Results, 1974 Cars and
     Light-Duty Trucks, U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, September 18, 1973.

14.  Potential for Motor Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvement,
     Report to the congress by U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, October 24, 1974.

15.  EPA Analysis of FEO Review of Lead Phase-Down
     Regulation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, April
     9, 1974.

16-  Automotive News 4973 Almanac, April 30, 1973.

17.  Long Term Forecastf Chase Econometric Associates,
     December 2, 1974.

18.  "Forecast of Motor Vehicle Distribution, Production,
     and Scrappage, 1971-1990," U.S. Department of
     Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, October
     1971.

19«  1973/74 Automobile Facts and Figures, Published by
     Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Detroit,
     Michigan.

20.  Tingley, D.S., and Johnson, J.H., "Emissions and Fuel
     Usage by the U.S. Truck and Bus Population and
     Strategies for Achieving Reduction," SAE Paper No.
     740537, June 1974.

21.  "Control of Air Pollution From Aircraft and Aircraft
     Engines, Emission Standards and Test Procedures for
     Aircraft," Federal Register, Vol. 38, No. 136, Tuesday,
     July 17, 1973.

22.  Aircraft Emissions;  Impact on Air Quality and
     Feasibility of Control, U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency.

23.  Cost estimates provided by R. Sampson, U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
                           2-270

-------
24.  EPA Memorandum:  "Analysis of Estimated Maintenance
     Costs for Emission control Systems Meeting the 1975/76
     Federal Standards."

25.  Hare, C.T., Springer, K.J., Oliver, W.R., Houtman,
     W.H., and Huls, T.A., "Motor Cycle Emissions, Their
     Impact, and Possible Control Techniques", SAE Paper No.
     7i»0627, Presented at SAE West Coast Meeting, August
     1974.

26.  Hare, C.T., Springer, K.J., Oliver, W.R., and Houtman,
     W.H., "Small Engine Emissions and Their Impact", SAE
     Paper No. 730859, Presented at SAE National FCIM and FL
     Meeting, September 1973.

27.  Hare, C.T.f Springer, K.J., and Huls, T.A., "Exhaust
     Emissions From Two-Stroke Outboard Motors and Their
     Impact", SAE Paper No. 740737, Presented at SAE
     National FCIM and FL Meeting, September 1974.

28.  Hare, C.T., Springer, K.J., and Huls, T.A., "Snowmobile
     Engine Emissions and Their Impact", SAE Paper No.
     740735, Presented at SAE National FCIM and FL Meeting,
     September 1974.

29«  Nationwide Inventory of Air Pollutant Emissions—1968*
     U.S. Department of Health, Education, and welfare.
     Public Health Service, Environmental Health Service,
     National Air Pollution Control Administration,
     Publication No. AP-73, August 1970.
                           2-271

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              2.  TRANSPORTATION CONTROL PLANS
Summary
When new-vehicle emission standards and stationary-source
control are fully implemented, twenty-seven Air Quality
Control Regions (AQCR) are still expected to exceed the
oxidant and carbon monoxide air quality standards of 1975.
To meet the air quality standards, these AQCR's will be
required to implement Transportation Control Plans  (TCP).
The aim of the TCP's is to reduce total emissions of in-use
vehicles by implementing either or both of the following
strategies to control total emissions from in-use vehicles:

  •  Measures that reduce emissions per vehicle mile of
     travel

  •  Measures that reduce total vehicle miles travelled
      (VMT).

The first strategy includes the application of retrofit
control systems, inspection and maintenance of vehicles, and
service station vapor controls.  The second strategy
contains mass transit improvements, carpool programs, and
other methods that will reduce the use of low-occupancy
automobiles.

A detailed discussion of measures contained in the TCPfs is
given in the following paragraphs.  Costs for implementing
the inspection and maintenance programs, installation of
retrofit devices, and service station vapor control systems
are estimated for each AQCR for the period 1976 to  1985
inclusive.  The costs to the vehicle owners of implementing
these measures are estimated to be $344 million in  1976,
$441 million in 1977, and thereafter remaining relatively
constant through 1985.  However, a net benefit results by
taking into account the fuel savings that are expected to
result from tune-ups required by the inspection and
maintenance strategies.  Hence, the cumulative benefit for
the period 1976-85 is estimated to be about $540 million
(see Table 2-13).  Approximately $664 million will be spent
for capital investment' over the decade and a little over $3
billion will go to operation and maintenance of the program
(see Table 2-14).  To maintain maximum clarity and
usability, it was decided not to convert the U.S. units of
measure contained in this section to metric equivalents.
                           2-272

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Introduction

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (hereafter referred to
as the Act) directed EPA to set national primary and
secondary ambient air quality standards.  The primary
standards must be established so that their attainment and
maintenance will protect the public health with an adequate
margin of safety.  The secondary standards will protect the
public welfare from any known or anticipated adverse effects
associated with the presence of air pollutants.  In 1971,
national ambient air quality standards were established for
six pollutants, including the four primary pollutants
associated with motor vehicles: carbon monoxide, nitrogen
dioxide, photochemical oxidant, and hydrocarbons.
Hydrocarbons are reactants in the formation of oxidants, and
they have no known health effects at ambient concentrations.
The primary and secondary standards for these pollutants are
identical and are shown in Table 2-1.
                         Table 2-1.
         National primary and Secondary Ambient Air
                     Quality Standards

                          Air Quality
Pollutant                 Standard1 (ppm)    Averaging Time

Hydrocarbons              0.24              3 hours
                          or                or
                          9.00              8 hours

Carbon Monoxide          35.00              1 hour

Nitrogen Dioxide          0.05              Annual

Photochemical Oxidant     0.08              1 hour

* Primary and secondary standards for these pollutants are
  identical.  Standards are not to be exceeded more than
  once a year.

Source: Reference 1.
The standards for the motor-vehicle-related pollutants have
been exceeded in a number of major urban areas.  From the
State Implementation Plans (SIP)  submitted to EPA by the
states in February 1972, it was found that of the 247 AQCR's
in the United States, 54 regions exceeded the air quality
standard for oxidants, 29 exceeded the carbon monoxide
                           2-273

-------
standard, and 2 exceeded the nitrogen dioxide standard.  In
total, sixty-six AQCR's, representing roughly 60 percent of
the nation's population, exceeded one or more of these
standards.

The Act established three principal approaches to achieving
the air quality standards:

  •  Emissions standards for new automobiles

  •  Emissions standards for stationary sources  (power
     plants, industrial sources, and general area sources)

  •  In-use vehicle controls.

EPA is authorized to promulgate and enforce emissions
standards for new automobiles, trucks, and motorcycles.  EPA
has used this authority to establish increasingly stringent
emissions standards for cars and initial standards for
trucks.  More stringent truck standards as well as
motorcycle emissions standards are now under development.2
The Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974
extended the 1975 and 1976 deadlines of the Act for two
years.

Reductions in pollutant concentrations resulting from the
implementation of new-vehicle emissions standards and
stationary-source controls were projected to significantly
reduce the number of AQCR's exceeding the oxidant or carbon
monoxide air quality standards.  These include approximately
i>0 percent of the nation's population.  Table 2-2 presents a
list of these AQCR's together with the ambient
concentrations for carbon monoxide and photochemical
oxidants measured through 1972.  Having controlled the
emissions from stationary sources and new vehicles to the
extent possible, those states containing the AQCR's that are
still projected to exceed the air quality standards will be
required to implement transportation control plans, i.e.,
control of in-use vehicles, to meet the requirements of the
Act.  This section describes the TCP's to be implemented in
those states containing the AQCR's listed in Table 2-2, and
it includes the estimated costs to the nation.
                           2-27tt

-------
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-------
Overall Strategies

TCP's make use of either or both of the following strategies
to control total emissions from in-use vehicles:

  •  Measures that reduce emissions per vehicle mile of
     travel

  •  Measures that reduce total vehicle miles travelled
     (VMT) .

The first strategy includes the inspection and maintenance
of vehicles in use and the application of retrofit control
systems.  The second strategy includes mass transit
improvements, carpool programs, and other methods that will
reduce the total use of automobiles.  TCP's mainly pursue
the above strategies with respect to automobile travel.  The
goals are to reduce emissions per vehicle mile and/or to
reduce VMT for automobiles.  Although motor vehicles are not
the only source of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and
nitrogen oxide emissions, Table 2-3 clearly indicates the
significance of automotive emissions.
                         Table 2-3.
       Mix of Emission Sources in Urban Areas - 1971

                             Percent of Total Emissions
                                         Trucks,
                                         Buses &
                                         Motor-   Stationary
                                         cycles   Sources
Pollutants

Carbon Monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Nitrogen Oxides
Automobiles
                          77-87          8-10      3-15
                          50-65          5-10     25-45
                          40-50          8-13     37-52
Source:  Reference 3, p. 111-23.
Measures that Reduce Emissions
Per Vehicle Miles

INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS

The term "inspection and maintenance" covers a variety of
strategies for reducing air pollutant emissions from light-
duty motor vehicles that are currently in use by
establishing procedures that will ensure proper maintenance
                           2-276

-------
of vehicles.  Emissions from most vehicles tend to increase
with use until the vehicle on the road is properly tuned.
Thus, most vehicles on the road are emitting more than they
were designed to emit or more than they would be emitting
after a tune-up.  The inspection and maintenance programs
will systematically reduce the emissions from an automobile
population.

Most of the inspection and maintenance programs have two
distinct phases:

  •  An inspection phase, in which motorists are required to
     periodically present their vehicles for examination

  •  A maintenance phase, in which vehicles that fail the
     examination must be tuned up to bring them into
     compliance.

Three classifications cover the major alternative approaches
in an inspection and maintenance program*.

  •  Exhaust emissions inspection
  •  Engine parameter inspection
  •  Mandatory maintenance.

The exhaust emissions inspection will be the only one
discussed because it is the only approach that is being used
at present in those states that have initiated the program.

Exhaust Emissions Inspection. This inspection technique
involves sampling the exhaust gases from the examined
vehicle and passing the samples through suitable analytical
instrumentation to measure the quantities of air polluting
compounds they contain.  If the concentration of each
compound falls below the applicable emissions standards, the
venicle passes the examination.  If the concentration of any
pollutant is above the standard, the vehicle fails.  If a
vehicle fails the test, it must then be adjusted or repaired
to bring the emissions into compliance.  Following the
maintenance, the vehicle would normally be resubmitted for
an emission test to ensure that it is in compliance.

There are two types of vehicle operating modes that can be
used in an emissions inspection test.  In an idle mode test,
emissions from the vehicle are measured using a tail-pipe
concentration while the vehicle is running in neutral.  In a
loaded mode test, the emissions are measured while the
vehicle is running in gear on a treadmill-like device called
a dynamometer.  When operating in this test mode, the
vehicle can be drive in several conditions, such as
acceleration, cruise, deceleration, and idle.  A driving


                           2-277

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cycle composed of a series of different driving modes can
more accurately represent actual driving conditions.  Thus,
emissions measurements taken in a loaded mode test are
usually more representative of actual driving emissions than
the measurements taken in an idle test5.  However, due to
its more sophisticated equipment, the need for larger
testing and facility areas, and a longer testing time per
vehicle, the cost of a loaded mode program is higher than
the cost of an idle mode program for a given vehicle
population.

The choice of which inspection and maintenance program to
implement is a function of several factors, including the
desired emissions reduction, ownership and operation of the
inspection stations (public or private), and the
relationship of the inspection and maintenance program with
existing vehicle safety inspection programs.

In general, it is desirable to incorporate the inspection
and maintenance program with a vehicle safety inspection
program when one exists.  If this approach is taken, the
manner in which the safety program is operated will have an
effect on the type of inspection and maintenance program
that is chosen.  Of the thirty-two states, including the
District of Columbia, which have safety programs, only three
states have publicly owned and operated stations.  Safety
programs in the remaining states are operated through
private garages and service stations.  Loaded mode
inspection and maintenance programs could be incorporated
into a state-owned safety program, but it would be difficult
to incorporate a loaded mode test program into a state-
licensed safety program because of the high cost of the test
equipment.  Therefore, in most cases idle mode tests could
be incorporated with state-licensed stations and loaded mode
tests with state-owned safety inspection stations.  If a
loaded mode test is required in a state with a state-
licensed safety inspection program, it is most likely that a
separate state-operated emission test program would hav« to
be started.

Twenty-four areas are required to have some form of
inspection and maintenance program within the next two years
under the TCP»s which have been approved or promulgated.
There are mandatory safety inspections in 13 of these TCP
areas.  The plans specifically call for 20 idle mode and 7
loaded mode programs.  The number of plans do not add to 2*»
because some AQCR's will include both idle mode and a loaded
mode or privately and publicly owned inspection facilities
as shown in Table 2-7.
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The expected emission reductions from an inspection and
maintenance program are a function of the mode type, the
frequency of the inspection, and the percentage of the
vehicle population that fail the inspection.  In general,
inspection programs will be conducted on an annual cycle.
Reductions in hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide emissions,
but not nitrogen oxide emissions, can be expected.
Table 2-4 provides expected emission reductions for the idle
and loaded mode programs for various failure rates.
                         Table 2-4.
Inspection and Maintenance Emission Reduction Effectiveness

              Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions
    (Percentage of Emissions from All Vehicles Inspected)

                        Failure Rate

              (Percentage of Vehicles Tested)

Mode Type        10       20       30       40       50
  Idle            6        8       10       11       11
  Loaded          8       11       13       14       15


            Carbon Monoxide Emission Reductions
    (Percentage of Emissions from All Vehicles Inspected)

                        Failure Rate

              (Percentage of Vehicles Tested)

Mode Type        10       20       30       40       50
  Idle            3        6        8        9       10
  Loaded          4        7        9       11       12
The failure rate is only a convenient shorthand way of
referring to the stringency of the emission standards.
Actually, the state will adopt specific emission standards
which each vehicle will be required to meet.  When the
emission standards are compared to the distribution of
emissions for the total vehicle population, the percentage
of vehicles that are above the emission standard can be
determined.  The resultant percentage represents those
vehicles that will fail the inspection and is termed the
failure rate.  Thus, the more stringent the standard, the
higher the failure rate.  Since the emissions distribution
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for the vehicle population can change from year to year, the
failure rate would also vary accordingly.

Costs will vary positively with the failure rate.  Vehicles
that fail the test must receive corrective maintenance and
be retested.  Program capacity must therefore be based not
only on the projected failure rate, but also on the rate of
retesting.  Increased vehicle capacity must be met by adding
additional testing facilities and/or increasing the hours of
operation.
RETROFIT CONTROL PROGRAMS

A retrofit approach can be defined as the addition of any
device or system and/or any modification or adjustment on a
motor vehicle after its initial manufacture to achieve a
reduction in emissions6.  Retrofit programs go beyond the
attempt made by inspection and maintenance programs to keep
in-use vehicles at minimum emission levels consistent with
their type and original design.  The only way to reduce the
rate of emissions from vehicles in-use further than the
level attained through inspection and maintenance is to
require retrofits.  The objective of a retrofit program is
to reduce the emission levels of an in-use vehicle below its
•'well-maintained" levels through the addition of a device or
system and/or a modification or adjustment after its initial
manufacture.

Normally, a retrofit program will not be planned unless
additional stationary-source controls, inspection and
maintenance, and some modest VMT reduction measures are also
implemented because retrofit devices alone are not enough to
meet the national air quality standards.  This is
principally because of the high cost of retrofit devices and
the relatively short life-span of their effectiveness, i.e.,
as older vehicles leave the population, so do the retrofit
devices, and the effect of the low emitting new vehicles
becomes more predominant.  All retrofit programs must embody
several important factors to be effective.  These factors
include:

  1. Choosing retrofit system that is most closely matched
     to the particular pollutant problem in the area, since
     different retrofit systems provide different emission
     reductions for the three pollutants;

  2. Assuring that a sufficient number of devices and
     trained installation personnel will be available;
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  3. Incorporating a testing requirement at the time of
     installation; and

  ft. Providing for annual inspection and maintenance of
     retrofitted vehicles to assure proper operation in
     subsequent years.

The two retrofit programs currently under consideration for
wide-spread implementation are:

  •  Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSAD)

  •  Air Bleed to Intake Manifold

In addition, a high altitude modification to the air bleed
retrofits has been under consideration for Denver and Salt
Lake City.  This modification involves timing and carburetor
changes on the air bleed.  Preliminary test runs in Denver
by EPA showed that the high altitude modification would not
significantly reduce emission levels.  Instead, an air bleed
system with exhaust gas recirculation appears to be more
desirable.

The characteristics of the two main types of retrofit
systems, including a description of the system, its
applicability, the expected emission reductions from its
implementation, and other considerations are discussed
below.

Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSAD). Two basic engine
modifications employed by motor vehicle manufacturers in
meeting Federal exhaust emission standards have been the
leaning of air/fuel ratios and the modification of
ignition(spark) timing.  The modification of these
parameters in precontrolled (pre-1968)  vehicles will reduce
carbon monoxide emissions by 9 percent, hydrocarbon
emissions by 25 percent, and nitrogen oxide emissions by 23
percent, resulting in a fuel penalty of up to 2 percent*.
Durability data developed by General Motors over 25,000
miles without maintenance show no deterioration in the
reduction of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides over time, but
do show approximately a 20 percent deterioration for carbon
monoxide.   Because the 1968 model and newer vehicles have
utilized these modifications to some extent to meet Federal
emission standards, this retrofit technique is considered to
be applicable primarily to precontrolled vehicles, but not
to approximately 10 percent of those precontrolled vehicles
which do not employ vacuum spark advance.

Air Bleed to Intake Manifold.  Many devices have been
designed to introduce excess air in the fuel mixture prior


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to combustion by one means or another.  The effect reduces
hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide with possibly some small
increase in nitrogen oxide emissions.  The reductions
achieved vary directly with the amount of air allowed into
the intake system.  This technique is applicable to some
extent to all light-duty vehicles through the 1971 model
year, but because of the relatively lean air/fuel ratios on
most controlled vehicles, the technique is primarily
applicable to precontrolled vehicles  (pre-1968).

Tests conducted on this system for EPA indicate an expected
reduction of 23 percent for hydrocarbons and 50 percent for
carbon monoxide emissions with a fuel benefit up to 4
percent7.  No significant effect on nitrogen oxide emissions
has been observed.  Durability data on the system are not
adequate for judging the performance of this control
technique over an extended time frame.
SERVICE STATION VAPOR CONTROLS

Although the hydrocarbon vapors emitted to the atmosphere
from service stations cannot be considered in-use vehicle
exhaust emissions, the relationship between these vapor
losses and vehicle use is so directly related that their
control can legitimately be thought of as a transportation
control.

Gasoline is a volatile liquid that tends to evaporate at
ordinary ambient temperatures.  The vapors thus created
become a significant source of hydrocarbon emissions and,
consequently, of photochemical oxidants.  In some
metropolitan areas these vapors contribute as much as 15
percent of the total hydrocarbon emissions8.  Gasoline may
evaporate at any of the points at which it is stored or
handled and enter the atmosphere either through "breathing"
from vents in the storage tanks (at the bulk terminal, in
tanker trucks, at the service station, or in the automobile
tank) or during the process of transferring from or
refilling of each of these tanks.

The California Air Resources Board estimates that 23 pounds
of hydrocarbons are emitted for each thousand gallons of
motor fuel sold at stations in an uncontrolled situation; 11
pounds from transferring fuel from transport to station
storage; 11 pounds in moving fuel from storage to a car
tank; and 1 pound in "breathing" losses from underground
storage.  A study by the Standard Oil of California reports
similar results9.  The average service station sells
approximately 25,000 gallons of gasoline per month which
results in hydrocarbon emissions of 575 pounds per month.
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EPA estimates such emissions to be around 400 pounds per
station per month*,*«,»*.  By 1975, uncontrolled vapor
losses of this magnitude will make the service station as
significant a source of hydrocarbon emissions as some of the
vehicles it serves.  When translated into grams per mile,
the hydrocarbon emissions from service stations exceed the
1977 new car hydrocarbon standards2.

Vapor Control Stages and Techniques. Service station vapor
losses result primarily from tank truck unloading (Stage I)
and vehicle fueling (Stage II).  The basic measures to
reduce either the evaporation or subsequent emission of
vapors to the atmosphere in Stage I include the following:

  1. Floating roofs on large storage tanks.  These devices
     reduce the airspace above the liquid where evaporation
     may occur.

  2. Submerged filling of tanks.  This allows new gasoline
     to flow into the liquid already in the tank,
     eliminating splashing which would otherwise increase
     the amount of vapor.

  3. Restrictions on vent pipes on the stationary storage
     tanks.  This technique limits the amount of "breathing"
     which occurs through the vents.

  *». Use of vapor return lines.  This method allows vapors
     in the tank being filled to be transferred back into
     the tank from which the gasoline is being taken.

  5. Secondary recovery systems.  Carbon absorption or
     refrigeration-condensation systems are used to
     neutralize or reprocess the vapors that otherwise might
     be emitted.

Of these control techniques, submerged tank fill is required
for any new station storage container  (in most regions) with
a capacity greater than 250 gallons, and any existing
container over 2,000 gallons.  In addition, displaced vapors
must be either transferred back to the delivery vessel
through a vapor-tight return line, or they must be processed
on the location by a refrigeration-condensation system or
other appropriate system designed to recover or eliminate at
least 90 percent (by weight) of the organic compounds in the
displaced vapors.  If the vapors are transferred to the
delivery vessel, such as a tanker truck, the tanker must be
refilled at facilities equipped with processing systems
(such as refrigeration-condensation, carbon absorption,
etc.)   which can recover at least 90 percent of the organic
compounds in the vapors.
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On February 8, 1974, sources were required to submit control
plans to EPA for Stage I vapor recovery by June 1, 1974»2.
EPA has been unable to approve many control plans submitted
because sources failed to include sufficient information or
technical justification.  Guidelines for Stage I vapor
recovery are being prepared by EPA and will be made
available to sources in the very near future.  Therefore,
EPA postponed the date for sources to enter and sign
contracts for control systems and the date for sources to
initiate on-site construction or installation of control
equipment.

Stage II controls (recovery of vapors displaced during
refueling of automobiles) could theoretically make use of
any of the Stage I control techniques described above.
However, submerged fill, collapsible bladders (the small
scale equivalent of a floating roof), and carbon canisters
to absorb all vapors during fueling would require redesign
of present automobiles and are not being considered by EPA
for Stage II controls.  Restrictions on vent pipes  (often
including small carbon canisters on the vehicles) were
introduced to comply with the Federal Motor Vehicle Control
Program in the 1970 model year, although pre-1970 vehicles
have vent pipes open to the atmosphere.  The remaining
control technique is the collection of vapors displaced
during fueling, and the subsequent processing of the vapors
through a vapor return line to the service station storage
tank.

Essentially two techniques have been developed for the
collection of vapors displaced from automobile tanks through
vapor return lines: simple displacement or "balance" and
vacuum-assist.  After the vapors are collected, they can be
recovered or reprocessed either at the service station or at
the bulk terminal.  Thus, recovery systems, such as carbon
absorption, refrigeration-condensation, or incineration, can
be installed either at the service station or at the bulk
terminal.  A substantial controversy has recently arisen
over the effectiveness of simple displacement systems and
the reliability of vacuum-assist systems.  Comment period on
the regulations was reopened, and EPA has postponed the
requirement for submiss ion of control plans from June 1,
1974, to December 1, 1976, with the final compliance to be
achieved no later than May 31, 1977.
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Measures that Reduce Total
Vehicle Miles Travelled

THE NEED FOR VMT REDUCTIONS

In the previous section, three measures to reduce emissions
per vehicle mile (in-use controls) were described.  In this
section, a brief description of measures which reduce VMT is
presented.

The potential air quality benefits of in-use vehicle
controls is shown in Table 2-5.  The table shows that if in-
use vehicle and stationary-source controls are fully
implemented by 1977, at least eight regions in 1980 and five
regions in 1985 are expected to fail to comply with oxidant
and/or carbon monoxide standards.  Therefore, if further
control of motor vehicle emissions is necessary, reductions
in automobile use are required to comply with the air
quality standards.
                         Table 2-5.
   Number of AQCR's Failing to Comply with Oxidant and/or
        Carbon Monoxide Standard in Indicated Year1
Conditions

Without In-use
  Vehicle Controlsa

With In-use
  Vehicle Controls'
                                   Calendar Year
1977        1980        1985
21-24       12-U       9-10
12-17        8-10       5-10
1 Ranges reflect uncertainty in degree of stationary-source
  control that will be achieved.  Air quality projections
  are based on linear rollback for carbon monoxide and
  Reference 13 for oxidant.  Analysis excludes New York,
  Denver, and Fairbanks.

z Control strategy consists of stationary-source controls
  and Federal Motor Vehicle Emission Control Plan  (FMVECP).

3 Control strategy consists of stationary-source controls,
  FMVECP, inspection and maintenance, retrofit (including
  catalyst retrofit) , and vapor controls.

Source:  Reference 2.
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In any particular AQCR, the adequacy of transportation
emission control strategies for achieving the national
ambient air quality standards will depend on the severity of
the air pollution problem within the region, the relative
contribution of mobile and stationary emission sources, and
the relative growth rates of these sources.

Thus, the extent of automobile use reductions will vary
substantially among the AQCR's in which they are needed.
Table 2-6 displays the distribution of automobile use
reductions  (measured as vehicle miles of travel) necessary
to achieve nationwide compliance with the ambient air
quality standards in 1977 and 1985; the projected VMT
reductions needed in 1985 and beyond are highly uncertain.
This is due to their extreme sensitivity to a number of
parameters used in the projection calculation; namely, the
relative contributions of different emission sources, the
growth rates of these sources, and the extent of stationary-
source control achievable.  Accordingly, a broad range of
the number of cities in each of two categories is shown; one
category shows the number of cities needing between zero and
25 percent VMT reductions, the other shows the number of
cities requiring VMT reductions greater than 25 percent.
The actual reductions needed by the cities in this latter
category will depend primarily upon the degree of
stationary-source control that can be achieved in 1985.
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                         Table 2-6.
  Number of AQCR's Requiring Automobile Use Reduction to
           Achieve Compliance with Oxidant and/or
                 Carbon Monoxide Standards1
                  Automobile Use Reduction
Calendar
Year

1977

19852
Less than 10%

      8

   0-25*
   6-8
10%-30%
30%-50%  50% or more
25% or more
   a-6
» The VMT reductions estimated for each AQCR are based on
  the additional control of motor vehicle emissions
  required, assuming the regional I/M and retrofit programs
  for in-use vehicles are fully implemented by 1977.   Air
  quality projections are based on linear rollback for
  carbon monoxide and Reference 13 for oxidant.  The number
  of AQCR's whose current transportation control plans
  include auto use reductions exceeds the number used here
  because some plans have substituted VMT reduction for
  retrofit.  Auto use reductions are expressed as perce it
  reductions in VMT.

2 Ranges reflect uncertainty in the degree of stationary-
  source control that will be achieved and the future growth
  in automobile use.

Source:  Reference 2.
The automobile use projections, upon which the analyses
presented in Table 2-6 are based, reflect trends as of 1973.
Thus, nationwide automobile use  (VMT) is projected to be
about 55 percent greater in 1985 than in 1972.  This
projection assumes an increasing number of vehicles per
person and an increasing annual mileage per vehicle.  If the
recent downward trend in automobile sales per person
continues for a number of years so that the number of
vehicles per person and the annual mileage per vehicle
remains constant through 1985, automobile use would be only
about 18 percent above current levels.  This represents a
VMT reduction of 25 percent from the projected baseline
assumed for Table 2-6 which reduces significantly the number
of AQCR's requiring VMT reductions to achieve compliance
with the standards.
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STRATEGIES TO REDUCE VMT

There are generally two strategies to achieve VMT
reductions:

  •  Improvements in transit systems to encourage automobile
     drivers to reduce trips.

  •  Incentives to increase the number of passengers per
     automobile.

Transit Improvements. To attract significant numbers of
automobile drivers out of their cars, a transit system must
at least satisfy three conditions:

  •  It must have enough vehicles to carry the new riders.

  •  It must provide service whose quality is comparable or
     superior to that of the automobile.  The most important
     component of service quality is travel time.

  •  Its cost to the rider must be attractive relative to
     the cost of operating an automobile.

An example of the relationship between travel time, cost,
and transit ridership for work trips is illustrated in
Figure 2-1, which is based upon the results of a study of
travel behavior in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania**.  The
variables included in the figure are the time required to
walk to and from the transit stop, the difference between
automobile and transit travel times, the difference between
automobile and transit costs, and the percentage of work
trips taking place by transit.  The importance of the time
and cost variables in determining transit ridership can be
illustrated by considering the case where transit and
automobile travel times and costs are equal  (Point A of
Figure 2-1).  The figures indicate that 66 percent of work
trips would take place by transit.  In constrast, average
work-trip transit ridership in the United States is
currently less than 15 percent.
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                            Figure 2-1.
Dependence  of Work-Trip  Transit Ridership  on Service Quality
     160
                                                              WALK TIME =5 WIN.
                                                              WALK TIME =10 WIN.
     -10
 LEGEND:
                                                             WALK TIME =0





                                                             WALK TIME =5 WIN.

                                                             WALK TIME =10 WIN
        O        5       10       15

   TRANSIT TIME -AUTOMOBILE (MINUTES)



AUTO COST = TRANSIT FARE

AUTO COST = TRANS IT FARE +$2.00
                                                          20
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In practice, it is unlikely that a transit system can offer
widespread service which is as fast as that of the
automobile.  A more realistic example of a high-quality
transit system is illustrated by Point B of Figure 2-1.
Here, the walk time is five minutes, transit travel time
exceeds automobile travel time by 10 minutes, and the
transit fare and automobile cost are equal; transit
ridership is 21 percent.  If the walk and travel times
remain unchanged and the automobile costs $2.00 per work
trip more than transit owing to free transit, parking
charges, or other reasons, transit ridership for work trips
increases to about 90 percent (Point c).

The reductions in the combined emissions of automobiles and
transit vehicles thus achieved depend on the kinds of
transit vehicles used, and the design and operation of the
transit system.  For example, if diesel buses meeting the
California 1975 heavy-duty diesel emission standards are
used and these buses carry an average load of 20 passengers,
the reductions in combined bus and automobile emissions are
roughly 30 percent for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons and
15 percent for nitrogen oxides in 1977.  In 1985, when
automobile emissions will be less than in 1977, the carbon
monoxide and hydrocarbon reductions are 20 percent and 25
percent, respectively.  However, nitrogen oxide emissions
increase by about 20 percent; this increase would be
eliminated if an average bus occupancy of 30 passengers were
achieved.

These quantitative results are approximate because of their
reliance on a single behavioral study and rather crude
measures of trip characteristics.  However, the conclusion
that a high-quality transit system can attract high levels
of ridership is also supported by the experience of existing
high-quality transit operations, such as the Shirley Highway
Express in the Washington, D.C.  area15.

Most transit systems in the United States do not provide the
high-quality service needed to attract high ridership.  For
example, nearly 50 percent of urban area residences are
located three or more blocks from the nearest transit stop.
Transit routes are heavily downtown-oriented, but only about
10 percent of the trips go downtown.  Transit trips take
nearly twice as long as automobile trips.  Moreover,
subsidized free or reduced rate parking confers a cost
advantage on the automobile.  Transit service of this
quality is illustrated by Point D of Figure 2-1, indicating
a ridership of 4 percent.

Carpools. Average automobile occupancy in the United States
is about two persons per car.  Average occupancy for work
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trips is about 1.4 persons per car16.  Since most cars are
capable of carrying at least four persons, there is
considerable room for reducing automobile use and emissions
through carpooling.  The principal obstacle to carpooling is
that carpools are highly restrictive in terms of the service
offered.  Carpoolers must have trip origins and destinations
that are close to one another, must travel at the same time,
and, to minimize the problems of locating carpool partners,
must make trips that are repetitive from day-to-day.  As a
result, the greatest potential for increased carpool use is
in connection with peak-period work trips.  These trips are
responsible for about 25 percent of urban area automobile
emissions*f.

The present automobile low occupancy rates for work trips
indicate that substantial carpooling will not take place
unless certain measures are implemented to encourage it.
The limited experience to date with carpool programs has
provided indications of the effectiveness of two possible
approaches to encouraging carpools:

  •  Preferential treatment for carpools on streets and
     freeways.

  •  Parking restrictions combined with locator systems.

Preferential treatment for carpools has been observed to
increase peak-period automobile occupancies by 10 to 30
percent*».  Locator systems combined with parking
restrictions appear capable of doubling occupancies for
downtown peak-period work trips to suburban locations19.  If
these preliminary indications are confirmed by future
experience, programs to encourage carpooling should be
capable of reducing total urban area automobile emissions by
5 to 10 percent.

Carpooling and transit systems appear to be competitive, not
complementary, approaches to reducing automobile use.  Both
approaches operate most easily in connection with peak-
period work trips to high density areas, and transit system
improvements tend to attract passengers from their carpools.
It is therefore unlikely that the effects of high-quality
transit systems and carpooling on automobile use will be
additive.  For example, if transit system improvements alone
can achieve a 15 percent reduction in automobile use and
carpooling alone can achieve a 10 percent reduction, the
automobile use reduction obtained from implementing both
approaches together is likely to be greater than 15 percent
but less than 25 percent.
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TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES
TO REDUCE VMT

In this section, specific VMT reduction measures considered
by the states, localities, and EPA in developing TCP»s will
be briefly explained.

Bus and Carpool Priority Treatment. Priority treatment for
buses and carpools consists of allocating highway facilities
preferentially to these vehicles for the purpose of
increasing their average speeds.  The usefulness of bus
priority treatment in attracting automobile drivers to use
the transit is dependent on the quality of the transit
system or subsystem that uses priority treatment.  Hence, in
areas where bus priority treatment is included in a TCP, the
measure is a part of an integrated transit improvement
program.  For example, in the Washington, D.C. area,
priority treatment is used in combination with bus fleet
expansion, the addition of new transit routes, and improved
bus scheduling.

  Carpooling Programs. Many TCP's include measures that
provide computerized carpool matching programs and
preferential carpool treatment programs.  The matching
programs provide for the formation of carpools, and the
preferential treatment programs provide incentives, such as
free parking, to encourage carpools.

Computerized carpool locator programs have been established
in cities such as Washington, B.C., Boston, Massachusetts,
Knoxville, Tennesse, and Omaha, Nebraska.

Employer Transit Incentive Regulations. Employer incentive
regulations applicable in several metropolitan areas require
major employers to implement measures that encourage the use
of carpools and mass transit, while at the same time
discouraging the use of single-passenger automobiles for
work-related commuting.  Under this approach, the employer
has the flexibility to develop his own plan to minimize the
impact of his facility on the area1s VMT.  The concept is
based on already existing programs that have been developed
by employers to discourage energy-inefficient commuting
habits.  In addition, many employers have voluntarily
started such programs to avoid the acquisition of land for
additional parking facilities.  Companies, such as Minnesota
Mining and Manufacturing and Aerospace Corporation of El
Segundo, California, have already illustrated the
effectiveness of this approach in reducing commuter
automobile usage.
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Parking Programs. Parking management programs are used in
several TCP's to complement the improvement of mass
transportation and carpooling alternatives.  The
transportation plans include two general types of parking
regulations:  on-street parking controls and parking
management programs.  The on-street parking controls are
similar to common regulations in various cities to prevent
congestion and to discourage commuter parking on public
streets.

The States are encouraged to develop their own area-wide
parking facility plans.  These plans should focus on the
interrelationship of transportation alternatives and new
parking facilities.  The plans should set forth the manner
in which the location, operation, and increase in the number
of parking-related facilities would be kept consistent with
the air quality needs throughout the area.  The plans could
also ensure that the new facilities complemented rather than
competed with existing and developing transit facilities.
Several areas, such as San Diego, Los Angeles, Portland, and
Seattle, have begun such plans for parking restrictions as a
traffic control approach.

Transit Expansion and Development. The improvement and
expansion of mass transit facilities is one of the key
elements for the success of transportation plans.  Bus fleet
expansion will allow service to be upgraded in several major
respects:

  •  Existing routes can offer more frequent service.

  •  New routes can be established to allow more people the
     opportunity of transit.

  •  Older, uncomfortable vehicles can be replaced with
     smoother riding, air-conditioned vehicles.

Within the last two years, many areas have established
programs to improve and upgrade existing transit systems,
Therefore, in the near future many areas will begin to offer
the type of alternative transit that is required to help
achieve the required VMT reductions.  An example of the type
of improvement which can effect a reduction in VMT is the
Seattle "Magic carpet" program.  City-wide fare reductions
along with free fares within the CBD were associated with a
fleet expansion and exclusive bus lanes.  The increased
ridership will help Seattle achieve the VMT reductions
necessary to meet the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards.
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Sufficient Federal funding is necessary if areas are to
expand transit systems to the level necessary to provide
assistance in achieving the VMT reduction goals contained in
the plans.  EPA has been working with DOT to assure the
availability of such funding.  In addition, states and
localities must be willing to increase their support for
mass transit.  Ideas such as using sales tax revenues for
capital and operating expenses and therefore stabilizing
fares have been successfully implemented in Atlanta,
Georgia.  Other areas must continue to provide the necessary
local commitment if expanded mass transit is to become a
reality.

Parking Surcharge and Parking Fees. The use of surcharges on
commercial rates for parking both discourages non-carpool
commuting and provides a source of financing for transit
improvements.  The measure can help bring about a
significant change in urban driving habits with a minimum of
social disruption if the fees are properly formulated and
integrated with transit improvements.  The program offers a
wide latitude of individual choice to the driver.  Those
whose needs or preferences are strongly in favor of using
the single passenger automobile may continue to do so,
although at a somewhat higher cost; those who can easily
adapt to other modes of transit or a carpool will have the
incentive to take such action.  The Energy Supply and
Environmental Control Coordination Act of June 1974  (P.L.
93-319) forbids the EPA from promulgating surcharges.

Gasoline Supply Limitations. Gasoline supply limitations
are, at least in theory, one of the most effective methods
of reducing VMT.  At the time the TCP's were first proposed,
gasoline supply limitations were considered to be included
in several plans.  Two types of regulations were proposed:

  1. A gasoline supply lid would have become effective
     during 1974 or 1975, which would have limited the
     quantity of gasoline sold in an area to fiscal  1973
     levels.

  2. A regulation, which would be implemented on May 31,
     1977, would reduce an area's gasoline supply and thus
     VMT to the extent necessary to achieve the ambient air
     quality standards.

The gasoline supply lid was dropped as a primary control
measure by EPA at the time the plans were finally
promulgated.  The determination not to include gasoline
supply lids as a "reasonably attainable" alternative was
based upon the comments received during the public hearings
held on each plan and the Agency's evaluation of the
                           2-294

-------
feasibility of implementing and administering an effective
program.  Moreover, possibilities of evasion, the likelihood
of noncompliance, and the difficulty of enforcement appeared
too great to make this measure praticable.

However, the gasoline supply reduction to be implemented on
May 31, 1977, has been retained in plans for several areas.
In these areas, this measure was included as a final resort
measure to fulfill the statutory requirement that a plan
must achieve the ambient air quality standards by 1977.  in
each of these areas, even with additional stationary-source
controls, inspection and maintenance programs, reasonable
VMT control measures, and retrofit strategies, additional
VMT reductions were necessary to demonstrate attainment of
the standards.  As the EPA Administrator has stated on
several occasions, this measure has been included in these
plans to meet the technical requirements of the law, and the
EPA does not intend to implement this measure unless it is
leagally required to do so.  EPA has submitted a proposed
amendment to the Clean Air Act which would allow additional
flexibility in these heavily impacted areas.
ADDITIONAL VMT REDUCTION MEASURES

several other measures were considered and accepted or
rejected for use in TCP's.  Measures used by the states or
EPA to a limited extent include bicycle lane programs,
vehicle-free zones, selective vehicle exclusion strategies,
and gasoline truck delivery bans,  of these, the first two
measures are being implemented on a limited basis, such as
the bicycle lane program now underway in Denver, Colorado,
and the vehicle-free zones in Springfield, Massachusetts,
the Camden-Trenton area of New Jersey, and Salt Lake city,
Utah.  The last two measures {selective vehicle exclusion
and gasoline truck delivery bans) were considered for
implementation but were rejected.


Costs of Transportation
Control Plans

This section estimates the aggregate costs to the motor
vehicle owners of implementing TCP's.  In order to estimate
aggregate costs for the period 1976-85, costs of
implementing various transportation control measures at each
AQCR have been computed.  Table 2-7 presents the list of
AQCR»s which will implement specific measures that will
reduce emissions per VMT; the table also describes the
geographic and model year coverage of each measure.
                           2-295


-------
                              Table  2-7.
     List  of  AQCR's  Which Will Implement  Measures to
        Reduce Emissions  Per Vehicle Mile  of Travel
AQCR
Boston
Springfield

NY-NJ-Conn.


Philadelphia




Southwest
Penn.
Baltimore
Natl. Capitol




Chicago


Indianapolis

Cincinnati

San Antonio

Houston -
Galveston
Denver
Phoenix -
Tucson


Wasatch
Front


Los Angeles
San
Francisco
San Diego
I/M
Test
Type
Idle
Idle

Idle

Loaded
Idle


Idle

Idle

Idle
Idle

Idle


Idle


Idle

bile
-„
Idle


Idle
Idle

Loaded



Idle


Loaded

Loaded
Loaded
Ownership
Private
Public

Public

Public
Private


Public

Private

Private
Public

Private


Public


Private

Public

Private


Private
Public

Public



Public


Public

Public
Public
Area
Covered
AQCR
Springfield
SMSA
N. J. part
of AQCR
N. Y. SMSA
Penn. part
of AQCR

N.J. part
of AQCR
AQCR

AQCR
Va. part of
AQCR
D. C. & MD
part of
AQCR
Cook Cty.
inc.
Chicago
Marion Co.

Hamilton
County
Note 1


AQCR
AQCR

AQCR



Note 2


AQCR

AQCR
AQCR
Retrofit
VSAD
Vehicle
Year
Pre-68












Pre-68
Pre-68







Pre-68






Pre-68









1955-65

1955-65
1955-65
Area
Covered
AQCR












AQCR
AQCR














AQCR









AQCR

AQCR
AQCR
Air Bleed
Vehicle
Year
1968-71


Pre-71


Pre-68


Pre-71



1968-71








Marion
Co.






Pre-68

Pre-68



Pre-68






Area
Covered
AQCR


N. J. part of
AQCR

Penn. part
of Phila.
SMSA
N. J. part of
AQCR


AQCR










.





AQCR

Phoenix &
Tucson
SMSA's

AQCR
excluding
Tooele Co.




-ssvc
Stages
I &n


i&n





I &II

I

i&n
i &n







i



i&n


i&n
i&n








i&n

i&n
i&n
Area
Covered
AQCR


N. J. part of
AQCR




N. J. part of
AQCR
Allegheny
County
AQCR
AQCR







Marion
County


San Antonio
County

AQCR
AQCR








AQCR

AQCR
AQCR
NOTES: 1 San Antonio SMSA and Kendall, Medina, Wilson, Atascosa, Comal Counties.
       2 Ogden, Salt Lake City, Provo- Orem SMSA's.
       3 Boston and Houston - Galveston AQCR's have recently cancelled retrofit programs. Also, the
         EPA is presently considering the promulgation of I/M measures for Dallas-Fort Worth.

-------
             Table 2-7. (Continued)
List of AQCR's Which Will Implement Measures to
  Reduce Emissions Per Vehicle Mile of Travel
AQCR
Sacramento
San Joaquin
Puget
Portland

East Wash-
ington,
Idaho

Northern
Alaska




Austin-
Waco
Dallas - Ft.
Worth
El Paso




I/M
Test
Type
Loaded
Loaded
Idle
Idle



Idle


Idle













Ownership
Public
Public
Private
Public



Private


Public










0


Area
Covered
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
Portland
SMSA


Spokane
SMSA

City of
Fairbanks
& North
Star
Borough









Retrofit
VSAD
Vehicle
Year
1955-65
1955-65






















Area
Covered
AQCR
AQCR






















Air Bleed
Vehicle
Year


Pre-68
Pre-68



Pre-68


Pre-68













Area
Covered


AQCR
Oregon part
of AQCR


Spokane
SMSA

AQCR













-SSVC
Stages
i&n
i &n














i

i &n
i &n




Area
Covered
AQCR
AQCR









„




AQCR

AQCR
El Paso
SMSA &
Texas
Counties
of AQCH
                     2-297

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INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS

Analysis of the inspection and maintenance program costs has
been limited to the programs operating in Chicago and New
Jersey.  In both instances, the programs make use of idle
mode tests, and the inspection stations are state owned and
operated.  Reference 11 presents a description of these
inspection programs as well as estimated fixed and operating
costs for a publicly owned and operated emissions inspection
program.  A brief description of the assumptions used in
estimating costs of inspection and maintenance programs
follows.  Cost elements have been computed by the EPA Office
of Land use and Transportation Policy, based on data
provided by Northrop/Olsen Corporation", The City of
Chicago24, and the State of Arizona22.  It is assumed that
the inspection facilities would be either publicly or
privately owned and operated with the needed maintenance of
rejected automobiles performed at privately owned garages or
repair facilities.  The number of inspection lanes required
is computed from the projected light-duty vehicle population
for that area for the year of program implementation and the
following standard lane capacities:

  •  Idle Mode - 32,000 vehicles per lane per year

  •  Loaded Mode - 25,000 vehicles per lane per year.

These capacities assume an 8-hour working day for 250 days
per year with an average of 10 percent idle time.  Since
vehicles are not expected to arrive at inspection stations
at a uniform rate, some idle time is inevitable.  However,
the extent of this idle time largely depends on the
inspection schedule and other measures in an area that would
affect the distribution of vehicle arrivals.  The success of
each area in achieving greater uniformity in arrival rates
cannot be estimated at this time; therefore, HO percent idle
facility time has been assumed.  It should be recognized
that as areas become experienced in administering inspection
and maintenance programs, the idle facility time is expected
to be significantly lower than 40 percent.  In this sense,
the cost estimates appear to be overstated for the later
years of the 10-year period.  The number of stations
required was computed assuming that all stations have two
lanes.

The total annual cost of an inspection station is assumed to
range from $106,077 to $130,97*, depending on the following
factors:

  •  Ownership (private versus public)
                           2-298

-------
  •  Test type (loaded versus idle)

  •  Geographic location which determines the total site
     cost.

Table 2-9 presents the summary of costs assumed per two-lane
station.  Reference 11 gives the detailed breakdown of the
cost estimate.  The second cost area in the program is the
maintenance of failed vehicles.  An average tune-up cost of
$30 per failed vehicle, of which $15 is assumed to be
attributable to the inspection and maintenance measure, is
considered.  Vehicles that fail the emissions inspection and
subsequently are tuned are expected to incur fuel savings.
The extent of annual fuel savings from the program is
dependent on the failure rate among other things.  EPA*s
Office of Transportation and Land Use Policy estimates that
on the basis of recent data the following relationship
exists between the failure rate and annual fuel savings for
serviced vehicles: Y = 31.5X~°.51*, where X=percent failure
rate and Y=annual fuel savings, expressed in percents, for
serviced vehicles.  Fleet-wide dollar savings are computed
for each AQCR by computing the fuel saving rate from the
above equation and assuming an annual vehicle use of 10,000
miles, a fuel consumption rate of 13.58 miles per gallon,
and a price of gasoline of $0.75 per gallon.

Based on the inspection cost estimates given in Table 2-8
and the maintenance cost and fuel savings assumptions
outlined above, the annual inspection and maintenance fixed
and operating costs for each AQCR have been computed for the
years 1976-85.  The summary annual costs for the United
States are presented in Table 2-9.  As shown in the table,
the fuel savings more than offset the costs of the
inspection and maintenance program, and in fact, result in
an overall net benefit, even after considering all TCP
costs.
                           2-299

-------
                                 Table  2-8.
  Fixed and Operating Cost  of  a  Two-Lane Inspection Station
Cost Category

Capital  Costs
  Equipment
  -  Instrumentation
     Automated System
     Dynamometer
  Installation Costs
  Site costs
  Construction Costs
Administration and Miscellaneous
  Contingencies

Total Capital Costs

Annual Costs:
  Annual Capital  Costs
  Operating Costs
  -  Salaries
     Supplies
  -  Administrative Support  and Overhead

Total Annual Costs
                                                         Public
     Loaded
  ( In 1975  Dollars)

                         Private
     Idle                 Idle
    $11 .870
     14.850
      6.400
      5,000
  14.000-140.000
     35,000
      3,000
   4.500-10.800

 $94.620-226,920


 $17.054-30.974

     64,000
      2.940
     33,060

$117.064-130,974
     $11.870              $11,870
      14.850                    0
           0                    0
       3.000                6,000
  14.000-140,000                0
      35.000                    0
       3.000                3,000
   4,090-7,000              1,040

 $85,810-214.720           21.910


 $15.630-28,907            $8,077

      64.000               64,000
       2.940                2,940
      33.060               33,0.60

$115,630-128.907         $106,077
  Administrative and miscellaneous costs are assumed to be $3,000 per station  for  the.first year-

  Unforeseen contingency costs  are calculated as 5 percent of the total  cost for equipment, instal-
  lation, land, construction, and administration.

  14.000 Square feet at $1.00 to $10.00 per square foot.

  2.500 Square feet at $14.00 per square foot.  For private stations i.t  is assumed that present
  facilities will be adequate to house the small amount of equipment needed for inspection.

  Assuming an economic life of  40 years for land and 10 years for other  capital  costs at  10
  percent annual interest and with zero scrap value.  The administrative and miscellaneous costs
  which are incurred for the first year only are assumed to be non-depreciable.

  One supervisor at $16.000 and 5  inspectors at $9.600. each per year.
                                   2-300

-------
                                   Table 2-9.
     Aggregate Cost (Benefit)  of Inspection  and Maintenance Programs,  1976-85
Year

1976
1977
1973
1979
1980
1961
1982
1983
1984
1935

Totals
Capi ta1
Investment
(1)
141.9
3.4
3.3
3.7
3.8
2.6
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.0
171.3
Annual i zed
Capi tal
Costs (2)
13.4
13.3
19.2
19.7
20.2
20.6
21 .0
21.4
21 .3
22.2
203.3 1

Stat ii
Costs
104.4
103.8
106.4
109.1
111.9
114.0
116.4
118.6
121. 1
123.4
.129.1
        (In Millions of  1975 Dollars)

        Operating & Maintenance (0/M)
                Costs

           Owners'
Station 0/M Maintenance Savings
           Cost (4)

           186.0
           190.8
           195.5
        -  - 200.3
           205.2
           209.6
           214.2
           218.7
           223.4
           22S.1
Fuel
Savi ngs
(5)
385.9
395.7
405.5
415.5
425.6
434.7
444.0
453.3
462.9
472.5
Net 0/M
(6)
(3+4-5)
(95.5)
(101.1)
(103.6)
(106.1 )
(108.5)
(111.1)
(113.4)
(116.0)
(118.4)
(121.0)
Annual
Costs (7)
(2+6)
(77.1)
(82.3)
(84.4)
(86.4)
(88.3)
(90.5)
(92.4)
(94.6)
(96.6)
(98.8)

Cumulative
(8)
(77.1)
(159.4)
(243.8)
(330.2)
(418.5)
(509.0)
(601 .4)
(696.0)
(792.6)
(891.4)
         2,071.8
                                                      4.295.6
(1 ,094.7)
(891.4)
                                    2-301

-------
RETROFIT PROGRAMS

Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSAD). VSAD retrofits are
mainly applicable to pre-1967 vehicles as shown in
Table 2-7.  It is assumed that the installation cost of a
VSAD retrofit would be approximately $20.00 per vehicle, and
it is estimated that the annual maintenance cost would be
approximately $5.00 per vehicle.  VSAD retrofits are
expected to increase fuel use from 0 to 2 percent, which
translates to a maximum annual fuel penalty of $11.25 per
vehicle, assuming a fuel consumption rate of 750 gallons at
$0.75 per gallon.

Air Bleed. The 11 AQCR's that will be implementing air-bleed
retrofit programs are listed in Table 2-7.  Air bleed
devices are primarily applicable to pre-1968 vehicles
although some areas, such as Baltimore and Boston, extend
the applicability to 1971 model year vehicles.  The
installation cost of an air bleed retrofit is assumed to be
$10 per vehicle for simple air bleed devices and $55 per
vehicle for air bleed devices with exhaust gas recirculation
(EGR).  It is further assumed that the life of the devices
is 5 years, necessitating replacement of the equipment after
that period at the same cost.  However, air bleed devices
are expected to increase the fuel economy by approximately 4
percent.  This fuel economy benefit translates to $22.50 per
year per vehicle.  Therefore, the net benefit over the 5
year life of the units would be $72.00 per vehicle with a
simple air bleed device and $57.50 per vehicle with an air
bleed/EGR device.

Summary Costs of Retrofits. The summary aggregate costs of
the retrofit programs for 1976 through 1985 are presented in
Table 2-10.
                            2-302

-------
                                  Table 2-10.
              summary Costs  of Retrofit Programs,  1976-85
Retrofit Program
1976
        1977
1978
1979
                                              (In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
                1980
                                         1931
1982
                                 1983
1984
1985
VSAD
Cumul at i ve
Air Bleed
Cumulative
Totals
Cumul at i ve
34.5
34.5
34.5
34.5
27.0
61.4
69.2
69.2
96.2
130.7
13.9
75.4
(46.4)
22.8
(32.5)
98.2
10.2
85.6
03.4)
(10.6)
(23.2)
75.0
7.8
93.4
(23.5)
(34.1)
(1S.7)
59.3
6.6
100.0
(16.1)
(50. 2)
(9.5)
49.8
6.3
106.3
12.1
(38.1)
18.4
68.2
6.3
112.6
(8.1)
(46.2)
(1.8)
66.4
6.3
118.9
(7.1)
(53.3)
(0.8)
65.6
6.3
125.2
<6.S)
(59.8)
(0.2)
65.4
  Only California AQCR's Mill  implement VSAD  in 1976.
                                    •f

  Numbers in parentheses indicate negative value. I.e.

  these retrofi ts.
                                 economies gained by  implementation of
                                       2-303

-------
SERVICE STATION VAPOR CONTROLS

The recent controversy about the Stage II Vapor Control
Systems (simple balance and vacuum-assist) creates
uncertainty as to the type of system which will be
implemented.  The installation cost of a vacuum-assist
system is significantly higher than the simple displacement
system.  Using the simple balance method, costs per station
may run between $2,000  (for a new station) and $5,000  (for
existing stations) for the required equipment labor.
Vacuum-assist equipment costs anywhere from one and a half
to two times as much.  For a 75,000 gallon per month service
station, the University of California, San Diego, estimates
the investment costs at $6,727 and $14,681 for simple
balance and vacuum-assist systems, respectively.23

In estimating the investment and operating cost of service
station vapor control systems, it is assumed that for Stage
II controls, one-third of the systems implemented will be
simple balance and two-thirds will be vacuum-assist.  Based
on EPA*s most recent data, the investment and operating
costs of the systems are assumed to be as follows:
Investment
  Service station component
      (Stage II)
  Support facilities component
      (Stage I)

Total per station

Operating costs per station
  per year
                                      Blower-  Simple
                                      Assist   Displacement
$12,000  $8,000

  1,300   1,300

$13,300  $9,300


$   556  $  556
For Stage I systems, a fuel savings benefit of $594 would
result, assuming 90 percent efficiency in recovering 880
gallons per station at $0-75 per gallon.  For Stage II, the
fuel savings benefit would be $495 for simple balance
systems, assuming 75 percent recovery, and $627 for vacuum-
assist systems, assuming 95 percent recovery.  Table 2-11
presents the summary costs of service station vapor controls
for the 10-year period.
                           2-30U

-------
                        Table 2-11.
      Aggregate Costs of Service Station Vapor control
                     Programs, 1976-85

         Annual Costs  (In Millions of 1975 Dollars)

Year       Fixed    Operating      Total    Cumulative

1977      $46.4    $(14.2)        $32.2      32.2
1978       46.4     (14.2)         32.2      64.4
1979       46.4     (14.2)         32.2      96.6
1980       46.4     (14.2)         32.2     128.8
1981       46.4     (14.2)         32.2     161.0
1982       46.4     (1^.2)         32.2     193.2
1983       46.4     (14.2)         32.2     225.4
1984       46.4     (14.2)         32.2     257.6
1985       46.4     (14.2)         32.2     289.8
SUMMARY COSTS

Table 2-12 shows the summary costs associated with measures
that will reduce emissions per vehicle mile.  Table 2-13
shows the breakdown between capital costs and operating and
maintenance costs for each control program for the period
from 1976 to 1985.

Approximately 90 percent of the total cost for reducing
emissions per vehicle mile is attributable to the inspection
and maintenance programs.  Several factors account for the
large costs of inspection and maintenance relative to
retrofit and service station vapor controls.  Perhaps the
most significant is the annual operating cost, which is
estimated to be $100,000 per station.  Furthermore, because
of the random vehicle arrivals for inspection, it is assumed
that the stations will be idle 40 percent of the time and
therefore they will not operate at optimum capacity.  This
idle factor obviously offers some potential for economy and
reduction of overall costs; however, the amount of idle time
that could be utilized is indeterminable at this time.

A second factor that contributes to the large cost of
inspection and maintenance programs is that essentially
every vehicle in the control area must submit to the
inspection, and those that fail will require maintenance and
reinspection, whereas retrofit systems usually apply only to
a small portion of the total number of vehicles.  Finally,
retrofit and service station vapor control cost estimates
include some partially compensatory economies, whereas no
                           2-305

-------
fuel economies are considered for inspection and maintenance
programs.
                           2-306

-------
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                       O>4J»J*«4J           —    X>
                    •^.cnJrt     a  c     v>           «     »
                    c-
                    oc    o    o    o     >    o
                    ... $ _    «i                .^    i_
              di     *-*>^c^s-'~d>c    a.    4^          ••
              t-     OC3~vw-uO    O     10       '«
              3     A .. h. <-> o —  a    t-    —    ••    o
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-------
                              Table  2-13.
   Investment  and Operating Maintenance  costs  for  Measures
  Which Reduce Emissions Per Vehicle  Mile Travelled 1976-85


                                        (in Millions of 1975 Dollars)
Retrofit
  VSAD
  Air Bleed

Subtotal

Inspect ion/
  Maintenance

Service Station
  Vapor Controls

Totals
                     Total  Program
                     Costs
 $125.2.
  (59.8)

 $ 65.4


($891.4)


  289.8

($536.2)
                    Investment
                    Costs
S 22.1
 153.4

$175.5


$203.3


 285.1

$663.9
              Operating and
              Maintenance
              Costs    -  .
  $103.1 .
  (213.2)

 $(110.1)


$3.200.9


     4.7

$3.095.5
                        Fuel
                        Savings
($4.295.6)
($4,295.6)
  Because  the fuel  savings associated with the  inspection  and maintenance measure have such a
  sizeable impact on overall TCP costs, they are broken out separately.
                                 2-308

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COST OF IMPLEMENTING MEASURES
THAT REDUCE VMT

The implementation of measures to reduce automobile
emissions by reducing VMT will affect many aspects of urban
activity other than air quality.  Some non-air quality
aspects are:

  •  Energy consumption.  Transit systems are considerably
     more energy efficient than the automobile.  Bus transit
     uses approximately 3,600 Btu's per passenger mile
     compared to 8,000 Btu's in work trips by automobile.
     Therefore, reduction in automobile use achieved by
     diverting automobile travelers to transit buses will
     reduce energy consumption.  Reductions in automobile
     use achieved through carpooling will also result in
     energy savings that are approximately proportional to
     VMT reductions.

  •  Transportation noise.  The diversion of automobile
     travelers to public transit appears to be capable of
     reducing exposure to highway-generated noise.  A study
     of the 1-66 corridor near Washington, D.C., indicates
     that the transit option decreases exposure to elevated
     noise levels by 10 to 20 percent, depending on the
     noise level, whereas the highway option increases
     exposure to noise by as much as W7 percent.2*

  •  Traffic safety.  Transit buses have roughly one
     fatality per 100 million passenger miles25 compared to
     about 1.6 fatalities per 100 million passenger miles
     for automobiles in urban areas.8*,27 Bus accident costs
     per passenger mile are roughly two-thirds those of
     automobiles.*»,2 »

  •  Traffic congestion and highway construction.  Buses
     require roadway space of less than 2 automobiles, but
     carry up to 50 times as many passengers per vehicle as
     automobiles.  Thus, the diversion of automobile drivers
     to public transit as well as to carpools will reduce
     traffic volumes and congestion.  Furthermore, reduced
     congestion will result in reduced need for further
     highway construction.

  •  Travel times.  Transit buses require more time than the
     automobile for access, collection, and distribution.
     These transit time disadvantages can be offset by the
     use of express bus routes and priority treatment for
     transit vehicles.  Carpools have also a time
     disadvantage relative to the single-occupant
     automobile.  This diadvantage is incurred during
                           2-309

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     collection and distribution and, as in the case of bus
     transit, it can be offset to some extent by the
     provision of priority treatment.

Many of the non-air quality effects listed above are
beneficial and would make the implementation of the control
measures desirable even if air quality were not a problem.
Indeed, the transportation measures that have been proposed
to improve air quality have also been proposed to alleviate
non-air quality related urban transportation problems.

There has been little direct experience with many
transportation control measures or with changes in
transportation system attributes of the magnitude
contemplated in some TCP's,  certain types of costs, i.e.,
those associated with the changes in urban land use due to
transportation control measures in this category, are
particularly difficult to estimate.3° Another source of
difficulty stems from the joint benefits derived from
transportation control measures.  Although costs for a
transit improvement program could be estimated with
reasonable accuracy, it would be inappropriate to assign the
full cost to the cause of achieving air quality.  Other non-
air quality benefits should share an appropriate portion of
the total cost.  Another source of difficulty of estimating
costs of transportation control measures is that these costs
are highly dependent on the specific control measures
implemented and the manner and area in which they are
implemented.  Finally, AQCR's have not yet specified the
specific VMT measures they will adopt.  For these reasons,
the costs of transportation control measures related to
reductions in VWT are not estimated in this report.
                           2-310

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References

1.   "National Primary and Secondary Ambient Air Quality
     Standards", Federal Register, Vol. 36, No. 84, Part II,
     April 30, 1971.

2.   "Transportation Controls to Reduce Automobile Use and
     Improve Air Quality in Cities: The Needs, the Options,
     and Effects on Urban Activity", Report by U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, to the U.S. congress,
     November 18, 1974.

3.   "Final Report on the Cost of Clean Air", Battelle's
     Columbus Laboratories, to U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Contract No. 68-01-1538, January 15, 1974.

4.   "Inspection and Maintenance of Light-Duty, Gasoline-
     Powered Motor Vehicles:  A Guide for Implementation",
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, August 1974.

5.   "Transportation Controls for Reducing Air Pollution",
     U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, February 21,
     1974.

6*   Federal Register, Vol. 38, No. 110, June 8, 1973.

7.   "Control Strategies for In-Use Vehicles", U.S.
     Environmental Protection Agency, November 1972.

8-   Federal Register, Vol. 39, No. 118, June 18, 1974.

9.   "'Must Do1  Systems Will Cost $1,000,000,000", National
     Petroleum News, October 1974.

10.  "The Clean Air Act and Transportation controls:  An EPA
     White Paper", U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     August 19710.

11.  Cronin, F.  J., "An Economic Analysis of Transportation
     Control Measures to Reduce Automotive Related
     Pollutants", U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     September 1974.

12.  Federal Register, Vol. 39, February 8, 1974.


13.  Schuck, E.  A., and Papetti, R., "Examination of the
     Photochemical Air Pollution Problem in Southern
     California", In:  "Technical Support Document for the
     Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate Air Quality Control
                           2-311

-------
     Plan",  Appendix D, U.S.  Environmental Protection
     Agency, October 30, 1973.

14.   "A Disaggregated Behavioral Model of Urban Travel
     Demand", prepared by Charles River Associates, Inc.,
     for the Federal Highway Administration under Contract
     No. FM-11-7566, March 1972.

15.   "Additions and Revisions to the Implementation Plan for
     the control of Carbon Monoxide, Nitrogen Oxides,
     Hydrocarbons, and Photochemical Oxidants for the
     District of Columbia Portion of the National Capitol
     Interstate Air Quality Control Region", prepared by the
     Government of the District of Columbia and the National
     Capitol Interstate Air Quality Planning Committee,
     April 1973.

16.   Strate, H.E., "Automobile Occupancy", Nationwide
     Personal Transportation survey, U.S. Department of
     Transportation, Report No. 1, April 1972.

17.   Horowitz, J. L., and Pernela, L. M., "Comparison of
     Automobile Emissions According to Trip Type in Two
     Metropolitan Areas", U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, May 1974.

18.   "Freeway Lanes for High Occupancy Vehicles; Third
     Annual Progress Report", State of California, Business
     and Transportation Agency, December 1973.

19.   Pratsch, Li, "Carpool and Buspool Matching Guide", U.S.
     Department of Transportation, February 1973.

20.   "Mandatory Vehicle Emissions Inspection and
     Maintenance:  Technical and Economic Feasibility
     Analysis", Northrop/Olson Corporation, Vol. Ill, Part
     A, 1971.

21.   "Vehicle Emission Testing Program Final Report, Concept
     and Criteria", Personal communication from the
     Department of Public Works, City of Chicago, to
     Northrop/Olson, February 1973.

22.   "Technical Report:  The Motor Vehicle Emissions
     Inspection Program", The State of Arizona, January
     197H.

23.   "Technical Review and Evaluation of Vapor Control
     Systems", University of California at San Diego,
     Department of Applied Mechanics and Engineering
     Sciences, 197
-------
24.  Howard, Needles, Tammen, and Bergendorff, "1-66
     Corridor Transportation Alternatives Study-Draft
     Environment section 4 (f) statement", prepared for the
     Virginia Department of Highways, November 1973.

25.  Wells, J. D., et al., "Economic characteristics of the
     Urban Public Transportation Industry", prepared for the
     Department of Transportation by the Institute for
     Defense Analysis, February 1972.

26.  "1973/74 Automobile Facts and Figures", Motor Vehicle
     Manufacturers Association, Detroit, Michigan,

27.  strate, H. E., "Automobile Occupancy", Nationwide
     Personal Transportation Survey, Report No. 1,
     Department of Transportation, April 1972.

28.  Frye, F. F., "Alternative Multi-Modal Passenger
     Transportation Systems - Comparative Economic
     Analysis", National Cooperative Highway Research
     Program Report No. 146, Highway Research Board, 1973.

29.  "Characteristics of Urban Transportation Systems",
     Deleuw, Gather, and Company, prepared for the
     Department of Transportation, May 1974.

30.  Curry, D. A., and Anderson, D. G., "Procedures for
     Estimating Highway User Costs, Air Pollution, and Noise
     Effects", National cooperative Highway Research Report
     No. 133, Highway Research Board, 1972.  147.10;50
                           2-313

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                       Section Three

                   THE ECONOMICS OF WATER
                     POLLUTION CONTROL
Chapter 1
Summary

The economics of controlling water pollution encompasses
both the expected benefits and the probable costs of
control.  The principal findings in the control cost area
are summarized below; benefits of water pollution control
are discussed in the next section of this chapter.

The benefits from controlling water pollution are the result
of reduced levels of pollutants in the nation's waterways.
Table 1 presents estimates of the amount of various
pollutants that are expected to be introduced into the
waters from 1971 to 1985.


                            3-1

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                                    Table  1.
            National Trend  in  Effluent Discharge Levels
Water Pollutants

Industrial  and Electrical Energy:

  BOO
  Suspended solids
  Dissolved solids
  Nutrients
  Acids
  COD
    1971
                                                         Net weight
                                                        (Metric Tons)
    1975
                           1977
                                       1983
                                       1985
2.067.693
6.744.996
11.343.849
86.203
293.623
3.353.614
1.966.001
6.235.049
11.496.225
81 ,596
224.038
3.312.273
1 .315.045
3,405.300
11 ,488.062
54.297
80.836
2,851.155
687.652
771 .352
9,714,877
39.249
68
1 .988,144
573,299
444,866
9,305,820
38.6C9
13
1,675,683
Municipal  Sewage :

  BOO
  Suspended solids
  Nutrients
1.693.273
1.820.621
1.014.442
1.586.899
1.668,368
1.061.768
1,437.337
1,429,736
1,080.451
  906,400
  983.516
1.085.340
  702,669
  822,032
1,084,620
  Ai l. SPT instal led
  Al 1 BAT installed
  Municipal  sewage figures are based upon the following assumptions!
     a.  Percentage of population sewered: 1970f71.0).  1974(75.0). 1990(83.0)
     b.  Percentage of sewered population by type:
        -Primary:  1971(21.3).. 1974(21.0), 1977(20.0),  1985(0.0)
        -Secondary:  1971(62.3), 19~4(62.6), 1977(67.5). 1985(81.2}
        -Tertiary: 1971(1.4). 1974(4.4), 1977(6.5),  1985(18.8)
        -No  Treatment:  1971(15.0), 1975(12.0). 1977<6.0).  1985(0.0)
                                       3-2

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The direct costs of water pollution control will be incurred
as expenditures to install and operate equipment, to control
the pollution from "point sources"  (i.e., those with
channelized waste streams), and to prevent sediment and
other run-off from "nonpoint sources".

On the basis of the results of the  1974 Needs Survey (Final
Report to the Congress, revised May 6, 1975 "Cost Estimates
for Construction of Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment
Facilities"), the largest single category of expenditures is
that required for the collection and treatment of municipal
sewage and stormwater, $3U2 billion (in 1973 dollars as
reported in Needs survey) by 1990.  These expenditure
requirements have been divided into six categories,
depending on the required treatment levels, and/or the type
of construction as follows:
  1. Category I

  2. Category II




  3. Category IIIA -


     Category IIIB -

  i». Category IVA

     Category IVB  -

  5. Category V


  6. Category VI
Secondary Treatment.

More Stringent Treatment Required by
Water Quality (removal of phosphorus,
ammonia, nitrates, and organic
pollutants).

Correction of Sewer
Infiltration/Inflow.

Major Sewer Rehabilitation.

Collector Sewers.

Interceptor Sewers.

Correction of Combined Sewer
Overflows.

Treatment and/or Control of
stormwaters.
In Table 2, an aggregated summary of municipal costs is
presented for the two basic scenarios used in this report:
Federal outlays  (and associated state and local
expenditures) resulting from current contract authority  ($18
billion), and Federal outlays resulting from additional
contract authority of $7 billion per year beginning in
FY1977.  Comparing the total investment under these two
                            3-3

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Federal grant programs with the estimate $342 billion (in
1973 dollars) from the Needs Survey indicated that neither
program will meet the EPA-corrected state estimates of
actual requirements.  However, eliminating the highly
uncertain and probably overstated Category VI costs will
bring the estimate down to the point where a substantial
portion will be covered under expenditures resulting from
the additional contract authority.
Federal Grant
Authority

Current

Additional
$7 Billion
per Year
(Beginning in
1977)
                          Table 2.
                 Summary of Municipal Costs
                 (Millions of 1973 Dollars)
                    1976-85
                  Investment
33.07
            1985
            O&M
1.72
   1985
Annualized
Capital


   t.70
86.01
3.88
  10.55
Industrial water pollution control investment expenditures
over the same 1976-85 period will amount to approximately
$i*5 billion(1975$).  These expenditures are only 29 percent
of the municipal costs reported in the 1974 Needs Survey but
are higher than the "current-authority" municipal
expenditures by 92 percent.  It was not possible to estimate
the stormwater treatment costs for this report because of
the uncertainties in levels of stormwater treatment needed
to meet the water quality standards as well as in the costs
of control.  However, the $235 billion reported in the Needs
Survey  (Category VI) is a considerable overstatement of
these costs.  The anticipated water pollution control costs
from 1976 to 1985 are presented for each major water
polluting industry in Table 3, and Figures 1 and 2.
                             3-4

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                          Table 3.
            National Industrial Investment Costs
                 for Water Pollution Costs
                (Millions of 1975 Dollars)'

Industry                  1974-1977   1978-1983   1976-1985

GROUP I

Feedlots                       50          24          54

Beet Sugar                     12          19          28

Cane Sugar                     22          22          28

Dairy                          54       1,035       1,096

Fruits & Vegetables            35         429         479

Grain Milling                 NEC         144         145

Meat & Poultry Processing     117       1,134       1,210

Seafood                        40       1,122       1,292

Leather                        48         265         295

Textiles                      134         453         558

Builders Paper                 11         129         138

Pulp and Paper              1,963       4,503       6,654

Plywood, Hardboard
and Wood Preservation          71          43         425

Inorganic Chemicals           632         333         516

Fertilizers                   111         173         285

Organic Chemicals             678       4,457       5,403

Phosphates                     69          77         131

Plastics 6 Synthetics         348       1,099       1,454
                            3-5

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        Table 3.  (Continued)
National Industrial Investment costs
     for Water Pollution Costs
    (Millions of  1975 Dollars) *
Industry
GROUP I (Cont'd.)
Petroleum
Rubber
Ferroalloys
Iron and Steel
Bauxite Refining
Primary Aluminum
Secondary Aluminum
Copper
Primary Lead
Primary Zinc
Asbestos
Cement
Fiberglass
Flat Glass
Pressed & Blown Glass
Electroplating
Steam Electric Power
Soaps & Detergents
1971-1977

1,562
85
15
1,760
63
29
3
14
3
8
1
37
15
2
16
1,995
600
6
1978-1983

524
84
50
1,800
61
24
52
11
2
15
2
18
18
4
174
2,793
3,900
69
1976-19<

1,770
148
95
3,120
111
45
55
8
3
18
3
39
29
6
229
3,837
4,800
75
                 3-6

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                    Table 3.  (Continued)
            National Industrial Investment Costs
                 for Water Pollution Costs
                (Killions of  1975 Dollars) »

Industry                  1974-1977   1978-1983   1976-1985

GROUP II

Fabricated Metals           3,579       4,223       3,527

Machinery-Electrical        1,144       1,588       6,035

Machinery-Nonelectrical     3,165       1,068       5,318

Transportation Equipment    2,147       2,361       2,301

NATIONAL TOTALS            20,800      37,128      51,763


1 Detailed independent studies of several of these
  industries were recently completed for EPA by various
  consultants.  The revised estimates are presented her«i,
  with explanations of the differences from SEAS estimates
  in the individual industry descriptions.

2 Group II industries were analyzed by Gianessi and Peskin
  with different sub-categorizations.  ("The Cost to
  Industries of the Water Pollution Control Amendment
  of 1972," National Bureau of Economic Research,
  December 1975—Revised January 1976.)   The total overall
  industries in this group for their study was $9,870 million
  for BPT.  This compares very favorably with the SEAS -otal
  of $10,340 million.  For purposes of national impact
  analysis, both estimates are within an acceptable range of
  computational variance.
                            3-7

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                  Figure  1.
     Total Industrial  Capital Investment
        for Water Pollution  Abatement
    32
    24
O
O
in
r^

S   16

U.
O
CO
z
O
     8
TOTAL

ANNUALIZED
                                                  O&M
                                                  ANNUALIZED

                                                  CAPITAL
       76  77   78  79   80   81  82   83  84   85

                          YEAR
                      3-8

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                        Figure 2.
        Industrial  Annualized Capital Investment
       and Operation and Maintenance Expenditures
              for  Water Pollution  Abatement
     80
     60
 S
 in
 r-
 o
 in
•z
 o
     40
     20


                         CUMULATIVE
                         INVESTMENT
                                                  ANNUAL
                                                  INVESTMENT
       76   77   78   79
80   81

 YEAR

  3-9
82  83   84  85

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Estimating the costs of nonpoint-source water pollution
control is much more difficult.  Not only has little work
been done in this area, but both the amount of pollution to
be controlled and the appropriate methods of control depend
on such complex variables as annual rainfall characteristics
and local soil conditions.  Control and implementation
strategies are not sufficiently well-defined to allow
estimation of agricultural nonpoint costs.

In addition to the expenditures for pollution control
equipment, direct costs will also be incurred to operate the
government programs necessary to administer the pollution
control program.  These costs, which will be experienced at
all levels of government - national, state, and local, are
summarized in Table 4 below.
                          Table 1.
    Government Expenditures for Water Pollution Federal
        and State-Local, for Selected Years, 1975-85
               (In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
Federal

State-Local

Total
 1977

367.9

130.0

497.9
 1983

311.9

130.0
 1985

311.9

130.0
The direct costs discussed above are not the only costs of
the water pollution control program.  The burden of meeting
these direct costs will have repercussions on society, and
industry must somehow pay for the costs of water pollution
control equipment.  This payment may be manifested through
increased consumer prices, changes in production, or, in
extreme cases, plant closures.
                            3-10

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                Chapter 2
                The Benefits of Controlling
                Water Pollution
                This section of the report presents a state-of-the-art
                assessment of the national benefits of controlling water
                pollution.  A. broad spectrum of studies has been reviewed
                for information on water pollution control benefits.  The
                information is fragmentary and localized, requiring
                questionable extrapolations to develop estimates at the
                national level.  Table  1 summarizes the availability and
                reliability of the information contained in these studies.
1
                                           3-11

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                          Table 1.
   Availability and Reliability of Information on Water
                     Pollution Damages
Pollutant

Acidity
BOD
Coliform
 Bacteria
Color
Floating
 Solids
Hardness
Nutrients
Odor
Oil
Pesticides
Sediment
Temperature
TDS and
 Salinity
TSS and
 Turbidity
Toxic Metals
General
 Pollution
         Aesthetic
         and        Outdoor    Product. Prop.
Health   Ecological Recreation Losses   Values
  u         u
  U         SP

  SP        U
  u         u

  U         0
  u  ,       u
  u         u
  U         TJ
  U         SP
  u         u
  U         IP
  U         SP
  u         a          u         IF       u

  U         0          SF        SP       U
  a         u          SP        SP       u

  SP        SP         AF        IF       SP
SF
IF
SF
U
IF
U
SP
U
SP
a
IF
IF
SP
IF
SP
U
SP
IP
SP
U
SP
u
IF
SP
U
U
U
U
u
u
u
u
u
u
SP
0
        Availability:

        A - ample
        I - insufficient
        S - scarce
        U - unavailable
                  Reliability:

                  E - excellent
                  G - good
                  F - fair
                  P - poor
Future refinements in the data and techniques used for
estimation should lead to a better understanding of the
damage sources, as well as more precise estimates for
respective damages.
                           3-12

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                       HEALTH DAMAGES


Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damage to Health

The negative effects of water pollution on health were the
earliest motivation for water pollution control.  Even at
present levels of wastewater treatment and municipal water
supply treatment, harmful pollutants can be ingested and
cause disease.  Bacteria and viruses are the primary
pollutants threatening human health, although recent
attention has also focused on carcinogens.  Among the
diseases that have been investigated are gastroenteritis
(including nausea, stomach cramps and diarrhea), infectious
hepatitis, menengitis, congenital heart anomalies, and acute
myocarditis and pericarditis.  The existing literature must
be considered inadequate because of the number of pollutants
and diseases for which there is insufficient statistical
correlation.
Survey of source Studies

A survey of health damage studies was accomplished by Neri,
Hewitt, and Schreiber (1974), who surveyed nearly 50
international epidemiological studies.  Unger, Emerson, and
Jordening  (1973) present a graphic display of health impact,
effect transmission, and pollutant relationship in their
study.  Nearly all health benefit studies rely on the Craun
and McCabe (1971) damage estimate of reported outbreaks of
waterborne illnesses.  The Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) is currently studying the impact of water pollution on
human health by examining the relationship between water
quality and the absenteeism of elementary school children.
                 OUTDOOR RECREATION DAMAGES
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damages to Recreation

Because of the strong dependence associated with water-
related recreation to water quality, recreation accounts for
a major part of the damages caused by water pollution.
Swimming, boating, and fishing are among the most popular
outdoor activities; the various pollutants discharged into
our waterways clearly interfere the enjoyment of these
activities.
                           3-13

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Swimming and other primary water-contact sports that provide
a likelihood of swallowing water are most strongly affected,
as is evident by the water quality criteria developed by the
Committee on Water Quality criteria who set .requirements of
fecal cpliform, pH, clarity, and color.  However, surveys
have made it clear that much more than these health
considerations influence the quality of water-based
recreation.  For example, fishing clearly depends on the
capability of the water to support wildlife which is
affected by a number of water quality parameters, especially
dissolved oxygen, high temperatures, pH, phenols, turbidity,
ammonia, dissolved solids, nitrates, and phosphates.

The aesthetic experience of being in, on, or near water
strongly influences the pleasantness of all water
recreational activities.  The measures of water quality that
are most highly-valued in people's perceptions of its
aesthetic attractiveness have been the major target of
studies done by survey researchers.  They include floating
debris and oil, odor, clarity, and color; these conditions
can cause a reduction in the quality and value of the
recreation experience, making it less enjoyable.  Secondly,
pollutants can increase the costs of obtaining a
satisfactory recreational experience.  Such increased costs
arise primarily from increases in extended travel to gain
access to sufficiently clean water, but they can also result
from additional equipment or maintenance expenses.  Both
decreased quality and increased cost ususally lead to a
reduction in the frequency or intensity of using available
recreation sites.

Water pollution also decreases the value of recreational
experiences.  The study by Ditton and Goodale  (1972) also
estimated that 21 percent of the existing users would
experience higher value from recreation if pollution were
reduced by 1 percent.  The extent of increased value was
estimated using Ericson's data on willingness to pay for
avoiding polluted water.  This estimate, which amounted to
$5.75 per recreation day, was developed for tourists in
Colorado.
Survey of Source Studies

An excellent survey of nearly 50 outdoor recreation damage
studies is provided by Jordening (1974).  The survey
presents tables containing over 30 water characteristics or
constituents that are detrimental to water-based
recreational activity, as well as reported damages and
established critical levels of specific pollutants.
                           3-1U

-------
Major source studies employed in contemporary calculation of
damages and their respective subject areas are presented
below:

  •  Council on Environmental Quality  (1972) - water quality

  •  Ericson (1975)  - value of recreation experience

  •  Ditton and Goodale  (1972)  - recreationists1 reaction to
     water quality

  •  U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (1972) - recreation days
     and travel mileage

  •  U.S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation  (1972) - recreation
     days

  •  Owens  (1970) - travel mileage and average speed of
     recreationists

  •  Burt and Brewer  (1971) - travel cost of recreationists

  •  U.S. Federal Highway Administration  (197<») - cost of
     operating an automobile

  »  Walker and Gauger  (1973) - value of household work.

Unger et al. (1974)  presents two approximations of the
damages to outdoor recreation from water pollution.  Two
regional studies, (Reiling et al.if_ 1973 and Nemerow and
Faro, 1970), were synthesized to extrapolate national
damages through demand analysis.  Total damages were
computed as a product of damages per acre, the percentage of
polluted water, water surface area, and a constant factor to
compensate for substitutions in the water-based recreations.
The expenditure method that equates benefits and
expenditures is an alternative method of estimating outdoor
recreational benefits.  U.S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation
(1967 and 1972) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife  (1972) studies
were the primary sources for this estimate.  In a current
EPA study of the recreational benefits from water quality
improvement, empirically derived damage functions will be
formulated to approximate the impact of water quality
changes on recreation demand.
                           3-15

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              AESTHETIC AND ECOLOGICAL DAMAGES
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damages on Aesthetic and
Ecological Values

Aesthetic and ecological values are damaged by water
pollution in a number of ways.  Users of water in such
activities as recreation and to some extent, production,
also suffer damages because the quality of their experience
has been degraded by the presence of pollutants.  Non-users
also suffer damages which they would be willing to pay to
avoid even though they do not intend to make direct use of
the waters involved.  These aesthetic and ecological values
result from the knowledge that clean and natural waterways
exist and will be preserved and protected from the danger of
ecological loss.  A part of such willingness to pay is the
vicarious satisfaction derived from the knowledge that the
preserved waterway will be used and enjoyed by others, even
the members of future generations to whom the natural
environment is bequeathed.

Damages to non-users result from those pollutants that have
the greatest impact on the readily-sensible aspects of water
quality; these include floating debris and oil, clarity,
color, and odor.  Reduced ability to support wildlife would
certainly be considered damaging from the perspective of
those non-users who place high value on these ecological
aspects of water quality.


Survey of source studies

The primary source study used in estimating the national
aesthetic and ecological damages was the study performed in
British Columbia by Meyer (197U).  This study focused on the
Fraser River, a major waterway in Canada, surveyed
residents' willingness to pay for fishing and preservation
of the salmon population.  Households were sent a carefully
developed questionnaire that placed questions concerning the
value of the salmon resource in the context of public
service purchases made by the local municipal governments.
Respondents were asked to indicate the value they would
place on preservation of the river's resources, even though
they did not expect to use them.  The results indicated an
average annual willingness to pay of $223 per household,
adding 54 percent to the value of fishing.

Colorado State University is conducting a study. Option
Value as a Benefit of Water Quality and Improvement - 1976,
                           3-16

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which will provide an empirical-based estimate of
individuals willing to pay to assure future access to clean
water resources.
                     PRODUCTION DAMAGES

water pollution causes increased production costs and
decreased output because clean water is an important factor
in the production of many goods and services.  For purposes
of this report, production uses of water have been grouped
into the following classes:

     Municipal
     Domestic  (i.e., household)
     Industrial
     Agricultural
     Commercial fisheries
     Materials damage.
Nature and Effects of Water
Pollution Damage to Production

Water pollutants cause damages to municipal water supplies
increasing both the extent of water treatment required to
produce potable water, and the costs of maintaining water
treatment and supply equipment.  The most damaging
pollutants are suspended and dissolved solids, bacterial and
viral pathogens, metal ions, (particularly iron and
manganese), inorganic and organic chemicals, and other
sources of bad odor and taste.  The municipal water
treatment operations .affected by additional pollutants are
decoagulation, filtration, clarification, demineralization
and softening, and control of taste and odor.  Although
disinfection is a major part of municipal water treatment,
it now appears that this operation would not be
substantially reduced by controlling man-made effluents.

Although most household water is drawn from treated surface
waters or relatively clean groundwater sources, even these
supplies contain damaging pollutants; the remaining effects
cause damage to water pipes, water heaters, fixtures,
appliances, fabrics, swimming pools, shrubbery and lawns,
primarily from dissolved solids and acidity.  A major
difficulty in the assessment of these damages arises from
the need to isolate the man-made effects from natural
pollution levels.
                           3-17

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The major industrial uses of water are for cooking, boiler
feed, and processing.  About 25 percent of the 17«» billion
liters per day drawn from surface water is treated before
use.  Boiler feed water must be demineralized and given
tertiary treatment before use, but this process would be
necessary for natural pollutants only.  Cooling water, which
accounts for more than 67 percent of industrial water
intake, is not highly sensitive to pollution, although
fouling can cause reduced heat-transfer rates, and some
pollutants reduce equipment life.  Although the most
troublesome pollutants vary substantially upon application
use, biological organisms, suspended and dissolved solids,
and acids are among those most widely treated.  The
industries most sensitive to pollutants in their water
supply are those producing Pharmaceuticals, foods and
beverages, chemicals and textiles.

The pollutants most damaging to agriculture are suspended
and dissolved solids, and micro-organisms.  Salinity can
reduce crop yields and the range of crop varieties that can
be economically raised under irrigation.  Sediments can be
damaging to some clay soils, but have their greatest impact
on irrigation ditches, pumps, and nozzles.  Bacteria and
viruses are of concern because of their potential damage by
crop contamination and the spread of disease to livestock.

Water pollution has seriously damaged commercial fisheries
by reducing the size of the catch, increasing its cost, and
lowering its quality.  Fecal coliform and other bacteria,
reduced oxygen, and toxic metals, such as mercury, have
caused the closing of about 20 percent of marine
shellfishing areas.  National shellfish catches have dropped
by more than half since the turn of the century.  For
example, oyster production in Chesapeake Bay, has dropped
from 12 million to 1 million bushels per year.

The damage to materials by water pollution arises in a
number of the above categories and has been included
wherever appropriate.  Materials damage also occurs in the
production activities associated with navigation.  Damages
to navigation arise from the corrosive and abrasive effects
of water pollutants on bridges, wharfs, piers, navigation
aids, and vessels; damages also result from sedimentation
and from floating debris, including pollution-induced growth
of algae and weeds.
                            3-18

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Survey of Source Studies

Damage estimates for municipal water supplies are derived
from U.S. census Bureau publications (1970 and 1971) which
provided treatment costs and water use data,  anger et al.
(197*), and Bregman and Lenormand (1966), have developed
approximations of the damages to municipal water supplies
using assumptions on the costs of removing man-made
pollution.  Unit treatment costs resulting from pollution
followed Bregman and Lenormand1s arbitrary assumptions of
costs per thousand gallons.  Bregman and Lenormand estimated
that national damages to municipal water supplies were
between $118 million and $1.8 billion.   Unger et al. revised
Bregman and Lenormand1s costs per thousand gallons estimates
by the consumer price index and estimated 1974 benefits.

National damage estimates for industrial water uses also
were reported by Unger et al^ This estimate utilized Bregman
and Lenormand's estimate of pollution-related treatment
costs per thousand gallons, and industrial water use data
for the year of the estimate.  As previously noted, Unger et
al. applied the consumer price index to Bregman and
Lenormand's figures; additionally, Unger et al^ extrapolated
their best estimate obtained from Bramer  (1960).

Agricultural damage estimates have for the most part
followed the methodology presented by Unger et al. Using
variables relating water quality, cost, and land-use
parameters, Unger et al. calculated the direct salinity
impact on agriculture.  The American Society of Agricultural
Engineers was the source of the agricultural dama'ge estimate
attributed to sediments.  A Dow Chemical Company  (1972)
study developed regional sediment impact estimates on
agriculture.

An irrigation water loss estimate was first reported in
Holm, Weldon; and Blackburn  (1971).  They used Timmons's
(1960)  estimate of acre-feet of water loss and Wollman et
al's (1962) value of an acre-foot of water.

The commercial fishery damage estimates and range are
reported by Tihansky  (1973), Bale (1971), Weddig  (1973),
Council on Environmental Quality  (1970), and U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency  (1972).

Studies such as Black and Veatch  (1967), Hamner  (1961),
American Water Works Association  (1961), Patterson and
Banker  (1968), Leeds, Hill, Jewett, Inc.  (1969), Metcalf and
Eddy (1972), and Williams  (1968) were reviewed by Tihansky
to derive economic damage functions for household water use.
Unger et al^ also reported damages from similar sources.


                           3-19

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Black and Veatch and Metcalf and Eddy were the primary
sources employed by Unger et al. Damages are estimated for
total dissolved solids and hardness, and the use of bottled
water.

Bramer  (1972) specifies the damages from acid corrosion
which can be attributed to navigation.  Other studies which
have estimated damages to materials include Ohio River
Committee (1943), O.S. Army Crops of Engineers (1969), and
Dow chemical Company.
                   PROPERTY VALUE DAMAGES

Nature and Effects of Pollution
Damages as Reflected
in Property Values

The effects of water pollution on the value of -water uses
have been shown to be also reflected in the value of nearby
properties.  The water use values that most strongly
influence property values are those directly related to
ownership of the land, namely recreation, aesthetic
enjoyment, and ecological enjoyment.  Production activities
and health are less dependent on locations directly adjacent
to water, and damages in these categories are less strongly
reflected in property values.  Residential and recreational
properties are similarly more affected by water pollution
than commercial and industrial properties, except for those
commercial activities directly related to water recreation.
        *
A study by Dornbusch and Barrager  (1973) included an
interview survey of property owners in seven areas where
pollution abatement had occurred.  The responses indicated
that wildlife support capacity is more important to property
owners than aesthetics or recreation.  The pollutants having
strongest damaging effect on fish and wildlife are included
in the National Sanitation Foundation's FAWL Index; these
are biological oxygen demand, heat, acidity, phenols,
turbidity, ammonia, dissolved solids, nitrate and phosphate.
The pollutants most strongly affecting aesthetics and
recreation as discussed in previous sections include
floating debris, oil, odor, clarity, color, and fecal
coliform.
                           3-20

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                  SURVEY OF SOURCE STUDIES

The primary study on water pollution and property values was
performed under EPA sponsorship by Dornbusch and Barrager.
This study applied multiple-regression analysis to determine
the relationship between changes in property values as
determined by sale prices, and water quality as determined
by the EPA Pollution-Duration-Intensity Index.  The results
from seven case-study areas were extrapolated to provide a
national estimate by separately considering metropolitan
areas, towns, and rural areas.  The estimated capital value
of $0.6 to $3.1 billion in 1972 was annualized at a 6
percent discount rate, giving $33 to $175 million per year
with a best-estimate of $76 million.

In an earlier study, Nemerow and Faro (1969)  showed that
property along the shore of Onondaga Lake near Syracuse,
N.Y., would increase in value by over $1 million per year if
the PDI index were lowered from 5 to 1.   David and Lord
(1969) found that improvements in water quality on
artificial lakes in Wisconsin would increase adjacent
property values by 7 percent.  In a study of Rocky Mountain
National Park, Ericson (1975) found that tourists in
Colorado were willing to pay 123 percent more for land that
was adjacent to unpolluted waterways.  All of these studies
confirm the positive relationship between water quality and
property value, although the strength of the relationship
clearly varies from place-to-place.
                           3-21

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  National Benefits of Water Pollution Control, U. S.
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American Society of Agricultural Engineers, professional
  paper 70-701.

American Water Works Association, Task Group 27709, "Saline
  Water Conversion," Journal of the American Water Works
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Bale, H. E., Jr., Report on the Economic Costs of Fishery
  Contaminants, U. S. Department of Commerce, National
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Barker, Bruce, and Kramer, Paul, "Water Quality Conditions
  in Illinois," In Statewide Water Resource Development Plan
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Black and Veatch, Consulting Engineers, "Economic Effects of
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Bramer, Henry C., The Economic Aspects of the Water
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Ph.
Bramer, Henry C., "Economically Significant Physicochemical
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Bregman, J., and S. Lenormand, The Pollution Paradox,
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Burt, Oscar R., and Brewer, Durward, "Estimation of Net
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Council on Environmental Quality, Ocean Dumping t A National
  Policy, 1970.
                           3-22

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Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality -
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Craun, Gunther F., and McCabe, Leland J., "Waterborne-
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David, Elizabeth L., and Lord, William B., "Determinants of
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  Economics, University of Wisconsin, Department of
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Ditton, Robert, and Goodale, Thomas, Marine Recreation Uses
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  Patterns, Technical Report No. 17, University of
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Dodson, Harold, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Water
  Quality Office, personal communication, March 1975.

Dornbusch, David M., and Barrager, Stephen M., Benefit of
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  1973.

Dow Chemical Company, An Economic Analysis of Erosion and
  Sediment Control Methods for Watersheds Undergoing
  Urbanization, February 1972.

Dreiling, Richard, U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
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Ericson, Raymond K., Valuation of Water Quality in Outdoor
  Recreation, forthcoming Ph. D. Dissertation, Colorado
  state University, 1975.

Federal Water Pollution Administration, Water Quality
  Criteria, U. s.  Department of Interior, National
  Technical Advisory Committee, April 1968.

Hamner, W. G., "Electrodialysis in Buckeye-Operation,"
  Journal of the American Water Works Association, December
  1964.

Holm, L. G., Weldon, L. W., and Blackburn, R. D., "Aquatic
  Weeds," In Man's Impact on Environment, Thomas R. Detwyler
  (ed.), McGraw-Hill, New York, 1971.
                           3-23

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Jordening, David L., Estimating Water Quality Benefits, U.
  S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-600/5-7«J-OU,
  August 197ft.

Kleinman, Alan P., Glad, J. Varney, and Titnus, Sigurd G.,
  Economic Impacts of Changes in Salinity Levels of the
  Colorado River, U. S. Department of the Interior, Bureau
  of Reclamation, February 197U.

Leeds, Hill, and Jewett, Inc., Development of a Least Cost
  Methodology for Evaluating Water Quality Management Plans
  for the Santa Ana River Basin, July 1969.

Metcalf and Eddy Engineers, "The Economic Value of Water
  Quality," Office of Saline Water, January 1972.

Meyer, Philip A., Recreational and Preservation Values
  Associated with the Salmon of the Fraser River, Fisheries
  and Marine Service, Vancouver, B. C., Canada, Information
  Report series. No. PAC/N-74-1, 197«.

Nemerow, Nelson L., and Faro, Robert C., Measurement of the
  Total Dollar Benefit of Water Pollution Control, Syracuse
  University, January 1969.

Nemerow, Nelson L., and Faro, Robert C., "Total Dollar
  Benefit of Water Pollution Control", Journal of the
  Sanitary Engineering Division, 1970.

Neri, Luciano C.,  Hewitt, David, and Schreiber, George B.,
  "Can Epidemiology Elucidate the Water Story?" American
  Journal of Epidemiology, February 1974.

Ohio River Committee, "Report Upon Survey of the Ohio River
  and Its Tributaries for Pollution Control," House Document
  Vol. 19, No. 1,  78th Congress, 1st Session, 1913.

Owens, Gerald P., outdoor Recreation:  Participation,
  Characteristics of Users, Distances Traveled, and
  Expenditurest Ohio Agricultural Research and Development
  Center, Research Bulletin 1033, April 1970.

Patterson, W. L., and Banker, R. F., "Effects of Highly
  Mineralized Water on Household Plumbing and Appliances",
  Journal gf -the American Water Works Association, September
  1968.

Reiling, S. D., Gibbs, K. C., and Stoevener, H. H., Economic
  Benefits From an Improvement in Water Quality, U. S.
  Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-R5-73-008, January
  1973.

-------
Sonnen, Michael B., "Quality Related Costs of Regional Water
  Users," paper presented at the ASCE National Meeting on
  Water Resources Engineering, January 29 - February 2,
  1973.

Tihansky, Dennis P.r "An Economic Assessment of Marine Water
  Pollution Damages," Proceedings of the Third International
  Conference on Pollution Control in the Marine Industries,
  June 5-7, 1973.

Timmons, F. L., U. S. Department of Agriculture, ARS-3H-ia,
  1960.

Unger, Samuel G., Emerson, M. Jarvin, and Jordening, David
  L.,  State-of-Art Review;  Water Pollution Control
  Benefits and Costs^ 0. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
  EPA-600/5-73-008a, October 1973.

Unger, Samuel G., et a 1.M_ National Estimates of Water
  Quality Benefits^ Development Planning & Research
  Associates, Inc., November 1974.

Urban System & Engineering, Inc., Recreational Benefits from
  Water Quality Improvement U. s. Environmental Protection
  Agency, Washington Environmental Research Center, work in
  progress.

U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, A Study of the Need for and
  Feasibility of a_ Program for the Removal and Disposal of
  Drift and Other~Debris, Including Abandoned Vessels from
  Public Harbors and Associated Channels Under the
  Jurisdiction of the Department of the Army^ Department of
  Defense, August 1969.

U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of_ Manufacturers, 7th
  Subject Report Water Use in Manufacturing, U. S.
  Government Printing OffTce, 1970.

U. S. Bureau of the Census, Governmental Finances in 1,97J2-
  73, Series GS73, No. 5, U. S. Government Printing Off.xce,
  1974.

U. S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of_ thg
  United States:  1971t 95th ed., Washington, D. C., 1974.

U. S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, The 1965 Survey of
  Outdoor Recreation Activitiest U. S. Department of
  Interior, 1967.
                           3-25

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U. S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, The 1970 Survey of
  Outdoor Recreation Activities - Preliminary Report, U. S.
  Department of Interior, February 1972.

U. S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, outdoor Recreation - A
  Legacy for America, U. S. Department of Interior, December
  1973.

U. s. Department of Commerce, Survey of current Business,
  July 1974.

0. S. Department of Interior, Westwide Study Report on the
  Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States,
  1974.

U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Fish Kills Caused by_
  Pollution in 1971 - Twelfth Annual Reportf 1972.

U. S. Federal Highway Administration, Cost of Operating an
  Automobile| U. S. Department of Transportation, April
  1974.

U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Survey of Fishing
  and Hunting 1970, U. S. Department of Interior, 1972.

Walker, Kathryn E«, and Gauger, William H., The Dollar Value
  gf_ Household Work, New York State College of Human
  Ecology, Information Bulletin 60, 1973.

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  D. C., personal  communication, January 1973.

Williams, J. W., "Effect of Water Conditioning on Waste
  Water Quality,"  Journal of the American Water Works
  Association, December 196l?.

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  the San Juan and Rio Grande Basins of New Mexico^
  University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, 1962.
  138;Costs,;Costs,
                           3-26

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Chapter 3
The Costs of Controlling Water Pollution


                      1. INTRODUCTION

scope

This section of the report presents national level estimates
of the costs of meeting the provisions of the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act amendments (P.L. 92-500), hereafter
referred to as the Act.

Costs reported include those attributable directly to
control measures (devices, process changes, etc.) and
program costs for research, administration, enforcement at
the Federal, state, and local levels.  Sources of water
pollution are broken down into industrial, municipal, and
nonpoint categories, and direct control costs are estimated
for these categories.
                '                                 «
Industrial costs at the plant level are taken for the most
part from the Effluent Guidelines Development Documents,
which were prepared under Sections 304, 306, and 307 of
PL92-500.  These documents define the levels of pollutant
removal that must be achieved by each industry category at
the interim level,  best practicable technology (BPT) to be
achieved by July 1, 1977, and the final level, best
available technology (BAT) to be achieved by July 1, 1983.
Total industry costs are computed by developing plant-level
costs for one or more "model" plants of various sizes and
process configurations which are typical of those in the
industry.  The total output of the industry is then
attributed to that number of model plants in each size
category which best approximates the actual size
distribution in the industry.  The total cost is then simply
the number of model plants in each size category times the
plant level costs for that category, summed over all size
categories.

Municipal costs are presented as total capital investment
achievable under the existing and projected Federal contract
authority, (i.e., what will be spent rather than what is
needed), as distinguished from the industrial costs, which
are estimates of what will be required to achieve given
control technology levels.  The projected Federal contract
authority is assumed to consist of current authority plus
new authority of $7 billion per year beginning in 1977.
These two contract authority scenarios are used in all
subsequent studies of the economic impact of expenditures
for municipal treatment plants.  As an indicator of the
                           3-27

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total requirement for municipal treatment plant
construction, results from a 1974 EPA adjusted survey of
state estimates of construction requirements were taken from
"Cost estimates for Construction of Publicly-Owned
Wastewater Treatment Facilities," Final Report to the
Congress, Revised May 6, 1975, and are presented along with
an independent estimate of the costs for meeting the
physical facilities requirements reported in this survey.

Costs associated with the control of nonpoint source
pollution are not considered in this report.


Assumptions

The highlights of the assumptions made regarding compliance
with P.L. 92-500 are listed below.  With the exception of
municipal treatment, these assumptions reflect full
compliance with the technology levels and deadlines included
in Federal legislation.  In the municipal program, it is
recognized that the construction rate will be set by the
level of Federal expenditure, i.e., the cost of bringing all
plants to at least secondary level treatment by 1977 (or
possibly by 1983) is beyond anticipated expenditure levels.
The outlay schedule used in the Reference Case was projected
using current Federal contract authority; one other outlay
schedule is considered as an alternative.
FEDERAL COMPLIANCE ASSUMPTIONS

Industrial.  Except for publicly-owned treatment works, BPT
must be applied to existing point sources of water pollution
by July 1, 1977, or compliance with pretreatment
requirements must be met if water is to be diverted to
publicly-owned treatment works.

Except for publicly-owned treatment works, the BAT which is
economically achievable for each pollutant category must be
applied to all point sources of pollution by July 1, 1983,
or compliance with pretreatment requirements must be met.

The Effluent Guideline Development Documents for
pretreatment, BPT, BAT, and New Source performance Standards
(NSPS) are the source of regulations and costs relating to
industrial sources of water pollution.

In some industries, BAT is the same as elimination of
discharge  (EOD), which is desired by 1985; in others,
extreme expense would be incurred to completely eliminate
discharge.  Since no Federal regulations currently require
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EOD, it was not considered in the estimation of pollution
abatement costs.  The aspect of treatment requirements above
BPT in water-quality-limited stream segments, as per Section
302 of the Act, is not addressed in this analysis.  This
could result in a very slight underestimate of costs in the
1976-85 period.

Municipal.  According to the Act, publicly-owned treatment
works in existence in July 1, 1977, or approved under the
act, must meet secondary effluent limitations by July 1,
1977 (or ambient water quality standards, if they are more
stringent).  However, the Reference Case assumption in this
report is that treatment plants will be built only at the  ^-
rate allowed for by Federal appropriations and state
matching funds as shown in Table 1-1.
                         Table 1-1.
     Projected Outlays Under Current Contract Authority
               (In Millions of 1973 Dollars)

           Direct Capital                Direct Capital
           Outlays (Fed.,                Outlays  (Fed.,
FY         State, Local)      FY         State, Local)

1975          3,893          1980           2,760
1976          a,873          1981           1,780
Transition    1,t73          1982             707
1977          6,767          1983             600
1978          7,460          1984             600
1979          5,H53          1985             600
The Act requires that by July 1, 1977, all publicly owned
treatment plants should achieve effluent limitations based
on secondary treatment as defined by EPA, and that by July
1, 1985, all plants should achieve Best Practicable Waste
Treatment Technology  (BPWTT)  (or ambient water quality
standards, if they are more stringent).  EPA's 'Water
Programs-Secondary Treatment Information' (40 CFR Part 133)
is the source of regulations which define the secondary
treatment effluent levels.  For this analysis, BPWTT is
regarded as the same as meeting secondary treatment
standards.
                           3-29

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Pollutants

A complete description of water quality has never been
accomplished, primarily because it would require chemical
analysis of a near-infinite number of solid, liquid and
gaseous compounds, as well as the identification of numerous
biota also present in water.  Thus, any practicable
description of water quality can only be conceived with a
very limited subset of all conceivable physical, chemical,
and biological aspects of actual waterbodies.  Typical water
quality measurements are, in fact, oriented toward a small
group of commonly-observed pollution problems.

The most common pollutants  {or pollutant groups) are
discussed in the following paragraphs.  There are some other
pollutants which are subject to effluent limitations, but
they are found in the waste streams of a very small number
of plants; these are covered in the industry summaries in
this chapter.
BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND

Biochemical oxygen demand  (BOD) is a measure of the oxygen-
consuming capabilities of organic matter; this matter is the
traditional organic wastes and ammonia contributed by
domestic sewage and industrial wastes of plant and animal
origin.  Besides human sewage, such wastes result from food
processing, paper mill production, tanning, and other
manufacturing processes.  The BOD does not, in itself, cause
direct harm to a water system, but it does exert an indirect
effect by depressing the oxygen content of the water.
Conditions are sometimes reached where all of the oxygen is
exhausted, and the continuing anaerobic decay process causes
production of noxious gases, such as hydrogen sulfide and
methane.  In addition, since fish and plant life depend on
oxygen for life, failure to control the oxygen-demanding
wastes will kill the fish.

Chemical oxygen demand  (COD) is another measure of oxygen-
consuming pollutants in water.  COD differs from BOD,
however, in that COD is a measure of the total oxidizable
carbon in the waste, and related to the chemically-bound
sources of oxygen in the water  (i.e., nitrate which is
chemically expressed as NO3_) as opposed to the dissolved
oxygen.
                            3-30

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SUSPENDED SOLIDS

Suspended solids include both organic and inorganic
materials.  The inorganic components include sand, silt, and
clay.  The organic fraction includes such materials as
grease, oil, tar, animal and vegetable fats, various fibers,
sawdust, hair, and various materials from sewers,  some of
these solids may settle out rapidly and bottom deposits are
often a mixture of both organic and inorganic solids.  They
adversely affect fisheries by covering the bottom of the
stream or lake with a blanket of material that destroys the
fish-food bottom fauna or the spawning ground.

While in suspension, these solids increase the turbidity of
the water, reduce light penetration, and impair the
photosynthetic activity of aquatic plants.
DISSOLVED SOLIDS

Total dissolved salts represent the residue {exclusive of
total suspended solids) after evaporation, and they include
soluble salts, such as sulfates and chlorides, and possibly
nitrates of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium, with
traces of iron, manganese and other substances.  Excessive
levels of dissolved salts can make water unfit for drinking
and irrigation purposes.

Total dissolved solids are particularly significant as a
pollutant in discharges from closed systems which involve
water recirculation and reuse.  These systems tend to
concentrate dissolved solids as a result of evaporation and
require blowdown  (continuous removal of a small amount of
the recirculating water) to maintain dissolved solids within
acceptable limits.
NUTRIENTS

Nutrients are substances that support and stimulate aquatic
plant life, such as algae and water weeds.  Carbon,
nitrogen, and phosphous are the chief nutrients present in
natural water.  Large amounts of these nutrients are
produced by sewage, certain industrial wastes, and drainage
from fertilized lands.  Biological waste treatment processes
do not remove the phosphorus and nitrogen to any substantial
extent.  In fact, they convert the organic forms of these
substances into mineral form, making them more usable by
plant life.  The problem starts when an excess of these
nutrients over-stimulates the growth of water plants,
causing unsightly conditions, interfering with treatment
                           3-31

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processes, and causing unpleasant and disagreeable tastes
and odors in the water.
pH,ACIDITY, AND ALKALINITY

Acidity and alkalinity are reciprocal terms.  Acidity is
produced by substances that yield hydrogen ions by
hydrolysis, and alkalinity is produced by substances that
yield hydroxyl ions; pH is a logarithmic measure of the
number of hydrogen ions present.  At a pH of 7, the hydrogen
and hydroxyl ion concentrations are essentially equal and
the water is neutral.  Waters with a pH above or below 7.0
can be corrosive to waterworks structures, distribution
lines, etc.
Water Pollutant controls

The control of water pollution involves a wide variety of
methods designed to reduce the flow of pollutants into the
nation's waterways.'  The methods employed differ
considerably from location-to-location, depending primarily
upon the types of pollutants present, the desired level of
treatment, the climate, and the quality and quantity of land
available.
THE TOTAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM

A well-designed water pollution control system minimizes the
volume and level of pollution of water that must be treated,
produces the desired degree of purity in the water
discharged, and properly disposes of the residual sludges.
The four general categories of control which comprise the
total water pollution control system are described below,

In-Process Controls.  In-process controls are methods
designed to reduce water use and prevent the introduction of
pollutants into the water used.  These methods are
particularly important in industry where changes in the
production processes, the use of raw materials, and the flow
of process waters can significantly reduce the volume and
degree of pollution of the wastewater streams.

Collection System.  Before treatment, the wastewaters must
be collected and channeled to the treatment plant.  The
collection systems of municipal treatment plants, the city
sewer systems, represent a considerable portion of the
municipal investment  (approximately 55 percent) in water
pollution control.  Proper maintenance and prevention of
                            3-32

-------
leaks in these systems can significantly reduce the
wastewater flow into municipal treatment plants.

Wastewater Treatment.  The actual treatment of polluted
waters is designed through a wide variety of methods which
are discussed in subsequent paragraphs.

Sludge Disposal.  The pollutants removed from the wastewater
must be disposed of properly so that they do not return to
the waterways.  The two most common methods of sludge
disposal are sanitary landfill and incineration.
WASTEWATER TREATMENT SYSTEMS

The heart of any water pollution control system is the
wastewater treatment system which takes in wastewater,
removes pollutants, and discharges purified water.
Wastewater treatment systems consist of a number of
components designed to remove different types of pollutants
at different stages of the treatment process.  Table 1-2
presents a summary of the most common wastewater treatment
processes, the types of pollutants they are designed to
remove, and the level of treatment most often attained.  The
treatment systems are often categorized into the three
general types described below.
                           3-33

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Physical-Chemical.  These processes rely primarily upon
physical means, such as skimming, screening, or gravity
settling; and chemical processes, such as neutralization;
chemical precipitation, carbon absorbtion, or ion exchange.

Biological.  The biological processes employ bacteria to
digest organic pollutants in the wastewater, after which the
bacteria are removed primarily by physical means.  Commonly-
used biological systems include trickling filters, lagoons,
and activated sludge plants.  In trickling filters, bacteria
are grown upon a bed of stones 3-to 10-feet deep.  When
wastewater is passed over these stones, the bacteria are
able to consume most of the organic materials present.
Where more land is available, lagoons are employed to allow
the sunlight, oxygen, and algae to interact and restore the
water naturally.  Lagoons may be anaerobic, aerobic, or
aerated depending upon how much oxygen is required.
Activated sludge plants are more advanced systems in which
the process or biological digestion is accelerated by
bringing air and sludge heavily-laden with bacteria into
close contact with the organic wastes.  Septic tanks are
smaller-scale biological treatment systems commonly employed
for individual residences.

Land Treatment.  These processes allow pretreated
wastewaters to percolate through the soil; organic and
inorganic wastes are then removed by this natural filter.
Irrigation and spray irrigation are common methods of land
treatment which are often used to enhance agricultural
production.
STAGES OF TREATMENT

Each wastewater treatment system is comprised of a number of
components arranged in sequence so that finer and finer
levels of treatment are achieved.  The components used and
the treatment required vary widely from system to system;
however, four generally-accepted stages of the treatment
process are discussed below.

Pretreatment.  To prepare the wastewater for further on-site
treatment or for discharge to a municipal treatment plant,
suspended solids and oils are removed by skimming or
screening, acidity or alkalinity is reduced by chemical
neutralization, and the flow of wastewater is often
equalized through the use of storage ponds.  Heavy metals or
toxic materials might also be removed at this stage.

Primary Treatment.  After pretreatment, the wastewater is
generally allowed to remain for some time in sedimentation
                           3-36

-------
tanks so that most of the remaining suspended materials are
allowed to settle out.  Flotation devices might also be
employed to remove suspended solids in the primary treatment
stage.

Secondary Treatment.  Secondary treatment generally consists
of biological treatment processes designed to remove the
organic wastes that have not settled out of the wastewater.
Further sedimentation may then be necessary to remove the
bacteria generated by the biological treatment.

Tertiary or Advanced Treatment.  In the advanced treatment
processes, many remaining pollutants are removed by very
specialized treatment processes designed to remove specific
chemicals, nutrients, metals, etc.  Before being introduced
into the waterways, the water is often chlorinated to kill
any harmful bacteria that might be present.

NONPOINT SOURCE WATER POLLUTION CONTROL

The above discussion has dealt primarily with wastewater
treatment systems designed to treat "point sources" of
pollution; i.e., wastewaters which are channeled through a
pipe.  A significant amount of soils, nutrients, and other
pollutants are introduced into the waterways from the run-
off of rainwater from fields, city streets, etc., which are
classified as "nonpoint sources" of water pollution.

The control of nonpoint source pollution does not involve
treatment systems as sophisticated as those discussed above.
Usually, nonpoint sources can be controlled to some extent
by correct soil conservation practices, the planting of
grass and other vegetation, and when necessary, the
provision of settling ponds or sedimentation basins.
Considerable research is underway to develop dependable
information for designing nonpoint-source controls.
However, the level of controls to be applied nationally and
the best implementation strategy are still not sufficiently
defined to warrant cost estimation for agricultural nonpoint
sources.                                    L     fl
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                           3-37

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               2. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES FOR
                  WATER POLLUTION CONTROL


Government funds for water pollution control are spent for
three major purposes:

  •  To conduct programs of monitoring, enforcement,
     technical assistance, grant assistance, and research,

  •  To abate pollution created at government-owned
     facilities, and

  •  To treat wastewater at municipal treatment facilities.

Generally, states have primary responsibility for monitoring
and enforcement with financial and other assistance provided
by the Federal government; research is conducted primarily
by the Federal government, and treatment of municipal
wastewater is the responsibility of local and state
governments with major financial assistance from the Federal
and state governments.

This discussion centers on the general program of Federal
and state governments, and it projects their respective
program costs over a 10-year period; it also includes
estimates of the cost of abating pollution at Federal
facilities.  Details of the analysis are not presented here
since the main purpose of this effort is to determine the
magnitude of this category of expenditure relation to other
expenditures in 'the report.
PROGRAM COSTS

Federal and state program costs are summarized in Table 2-1.
Federal expenditures  (exclusive of construction grants and
grants to states) are projected to decrease from the 1975
level of $326 million to J187 million in 1978.  The Federal
share of program expenditures is also projected to decline
over the forecast period as the states gradually assume
greater responsibility in implementing the programs and
regulations.  Total decade expenditures for this category
are projected at 3,17tt million.
                           3-38

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Federal Program Costs

Federal responsibilities which are exercised primarily
through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
encompass a broad range of authorities, particularly since
enactment of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments of 1972.  On the one hand, they encourage
compliance through grants and other types of assistance; on
the other, they require compliance through regulatory
programs.
ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS

EPA conducts several assistance programs, including the
grants for wastewater treatment works, grants for regional
water quality planning, program development, technical
assistance, and manpower development.

The construction grants program is by far the largest,
involving $2 billion in Federal funds in fiscal year 1973,
$3 billion in 197«, $H billion in 1975 and $9 billion in
1978.  The level of assistance has gradually increased since
the first permanent Federal pollution control legislation
was enacted in 1956; today, the Federal share is 75 percent
of project capital costs.  A variety of projects are
eligible for funding, including treatment plants and
interceptor sewers.  Details of this category of
expenditures are presented in the next chapter.

EPA also provides program grants to assist the states,
interstate and regional agencies expand and improve a
variety of activities essential to the control of water
pollution.  The activities include water quality planning
and standards setting, surveillance, enforcement, issuance
of permits, executive management, and administration of the
construction grants program.  The level of assistance varies
from one activity to another, as well as from year to year.
In 1975 and 1976 over $200 million dollars was granted to
regional agencies for areawide waste treatment management
plants.  However, in the future, funding for this program
will drop to a low maintenance level for the next few years.

The feasibility of a new consolidated grants program is
currently under study by the Agency which would combine the
state assistance programs for water quality, air quality,
water supply and solid waste.  If such a program were
initiated, the Abatement and Control category in Table 2-2
would drop by an amount roughly equal to the water quality
state assistance program.  Since allocation of these
consolidated funds among the four categories might become a
                           3-UO

-------
state option, forecasting future water quality expenditures
would require additional analysis.

Technical assistance is another program receiving major EPA
attention.  Many pollution problems are too complex for
states, communities, and industries to handle alone.   EPA
assists in such cases by providing services ranging from
technical advice and consultation to extensive, long-term
field and laboratory studies.  Within the limits of
available resources, this assistance is provided on request,
primarily to the states and municipalities.

As might be expected, the rapid expansion of pollution
control activities has placed a strain upon the supply of
trained manpower.  In providing assistance, EPA pursues a
number of approaches; these include providing short-term
training by EPA staff to upgrade the skills of those already
in the field, and employing a variety of ways to train
sewage treatment plant operators.
REGULATORY PROGRAMS

To facilitate enforcement of the many new pollution control
requirements, the 1972 Act replaced former enforcement
authorities with new authorities and provided a new
regulatory scheme based largely on the imposition of
specific requirements through a system of permits and termed
the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES).
Permit conditions and other requirements of the Act are
enforceable through EPA compliance orders and civil suits;
violators are subject to penalties.  A state may assume the
responsibility if it meets certain requirements, including
the capability and authority to modify, suspend, or revoke a
permit, and it has the powers and procedures necessary for
criminal penalties, injunctive relief, and other enforcement
mechanisms.

The Apt also required Federal agencies to comply with
Federal, state, interstate, and local pollution control and
abatement requirements to the same extent as any person must
comply.  EPA's role stems from the Act and is amplified in
Executive Order 11752.  The role includes review of Federal
facilities compliance with applicable standards, providing
guidance to the Federal agencies for implementing provisions
of the Order, providing coordination of Federal agencies*
compliance actions with state and local agencies, and
providing technical advice on waste treatment technology.

Table 2-2 projects a stabilized Federal water quality
program beyond FY78, reflecting the need for Federal fiscal
                           3-tH

-------
restraints and the gradual acceptance of greater
environmental responsibilities by the states.  Water quality
program expenditures are usually divided into three
categories: abatement and control covers the numerous *
management and assistance activities of the water quality
program, research and development provides the scientific
and technical support for the program, and enforcement
covers actions seeking compliance with the law.  Table 2-2
shows projected Federal program expenditures according to
the three categories listed.
                           3-«2

-------
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-------
State Program Costs

STATE ROLE

Although the Federal government has taken an increasingly
greater hand in dealing with water pollution, the states
continue to bear the major share of the responsibility.
States inherently have broad powers to deal with water
pollution, and these powers, together with delegated Federal
authorities, place the states in a strong position to
regulate all sources of pollution.  State powers and
responsibilities under the Act are exercised through a broad
range of activities, including:

  •  States prepare an annual strategy and program report
     that describes the interim goals to be achieved during
     the year, the state resources to be assigned in meeting
     the goals, and the method of assigning resources.

  •  States prepare basin water quality management plans, as
     required by Section 303 (e) of the 1972 Act.  These
     plans are designed to be the central management tools
     of the states in administering their water quality
     programs.

  •  States are responsible for reviewing areawide waste
     treatment management plans called for by Section 208
     and prepared by local agencies.

  *  States have major responsibilities in the
     administration of the construction grants program,
     including the responsibility for assigning priorities
     to projects eligible for Federal financial assistance.
     It is intended that certain Federal responsibilities,
     such as review of plans and specifications, be
     transferred to the states as they are able to assume
     them.  Some states provide funds to assist communities
     in constructing waste treatment works.  Primary
     responsibility for monitoring municipal treatment
     plants to see that they operate correctly also rests
     with the states.

  •  States have the basic responsibility for planning and
     implementing programs for control of nonpoint sources
     of pollution.

  •  Some states have assumed, and others are in the process
     of assuming, responsibility for the NPDES permit
     program.  States that have received the responsibility
     have concurrently assumed extensive enforcement
     responsibilities associated with permit compliance.
                           3-4«»

-------
     States and the Federal government share responsibility
     for enforcement.

     States establish and implement water quality standards.
     Under the 1972 Act, such standards are extended to
     intrastate, as well as interstate, waters.

     States perform monitoring and surveillance functions to
     identify and assess existing and potential water
     pollution problems, and also to measure the
     effectiveness of the permit and construction grants
     programs.
AGGREGATE STATE PROGRAM EXPENDITURES

Methods for estimating state program costs are discussed in
Section 1.  As shown in Table 2-1, state program
expenditures are expected to remain level at about $130
million per year.  Within this stable budget expenditure
will gradually shift from planning to enforcement.  The
assumptions behind the analysis suggests a continuation of
activity in almost every area.  Revisions of water quality
standards, issuance of a new round of permits, compliance
and ambient monitoring and construction grant review, in
fact, may require the maintenance of state programs at a
higher expenditure level than projected.  However,
anticipated revenue constraints at the State and Federal
level combined with competing social needs lend credence to
a level projection.


Expenditures by Other Federal Agencies

The following information is excerpted and adapted from:
Office of Management and Budget, "Special Analyses: Budget
of the United States Government," USGPO, 1976.

Although covering a wide range of activities. Federal
environmental programs are classified in three broad
categories: pollution control and abatement; understanding,
describing and predicting the environment, and environmental
protection and enhancement activities.  It is difficult to
attribute non-EPA Federal expenditures to specific pollution
control legislation in many cases, but an approximation of
P.L. 92-500 related expenditures is given by the water
quality expenditures in the Pollution Control and Abatement
category.  Principal activities in this category include
actions necessary to reduce pollution £rom Federal
facilities; the establishment and enforcement of standards;
research and dvelopment; and the identification of
                           3-45

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pollutants, their sources, and their impact on health.  Non-
EPA water quality expenditures by the Federal government in
FY1976, the transition quarter and FY1977 are 527, 83, and
167, million dollars respectively.

Since Federal spending is strongly influenced by policy and
competing social needs, forecasting is always problematical.
The best estimate currently is that such expenditures will
remain stable over the next several years, with only minor
growth or decline.  If non-EPA Federal outlays in this
category were to be held constant at the FY1977 level, total
decade expenditures would be about <».8 billion dollars.
While this is a large amount on an absolute basis, it is
relatively small compared to total expenses in the nation
for P.L. 92-500.
                 3. MUNICIPAL CONTROL COSTS
Introduction
The 1972 amendments to the Clean Water Act established
technology objectives and water quality objectives for
controlling pollution from municipal sources.  The
technology objectives require that all publicly-owned
treatment works install "secondary treatment technology'1 by
1977 and "best practicable wastewater treatment technology"
by 1983; currently, secondary treatment (85 percent control
of organic and suspended solids waste loads, pH between 6.0
and 9.0, and limits on fecal coliform bacteria)  is
considered equivalent to best practicable treatment.  In
addition, publicly-owned treatment works must control their
waste discharge as necessary to meet water quality standards
by 1983.  These standards are based on achieving a level of
water quality that will provide for the protection and
propagation of fish, shellfish, and wildlife, and will
provide for recreation in and on the water.  This section
reports the costs associated with meeting these dual
objectives.
DEFINING AND MEASURING NEED

The 1974 Needs survey conducted in compliance with Section
516 (b) (2) of the Act, requested that municipal treatment
authorities estimate the expenditures required to meet the
technology and water quality standards and to provide for
replacement or expansion of facilities as necessary to serve
the population projected to 1990.  Thus, a "need" consists
of the resources associated with the upgrading, replacement.
                           3-U6

-------
expansion or construction of treatment facilities which
state or local governments consider to be necessary, based
upon the Federal standards.

Although alternative methods of estimating the cost of
meeting the technology and water quality standards have been
used, there has been no attempt in this report to validate
the state and local government estimates of needed
facilities.

Actual expenditures by all levels of government are expected
to be somewhat less than the total "need" reported in this
survey, although the proportion covered varies considerably
across the categories, i.e., categories I, II, and IVB
(treatment plants plus interceptor sewers) will be very
nearly covered, while category VI  (stormwater treatment)
will probably receive very little coverage.
DEFINING COST

While all other sections of the report estimate costs for
compliance with effluent or emission standards, several
complications preclude presenting that type of analysis in
this case.  Compliance with the Federal Water Pollution
Control Act by all publicly owned sewage treatment plants in
existence on July 1f 1977, would require them to achieve a
secondary treatment level for all effluents.  Because of the
difficulty facing municipalities in raising capital, and
limitations in Federal construction grants, treatment plants
cannot be built fast enough to assure compliance with the
Act.  Instead, it is assumed in this report that new plants
will only be built as rapidly as permitted by Federal
appropriations and state and local matching funds.  The
total investments shown in Table 3-8 are composed of Federal
outlay estimates for the given year, plus required state and
local matching funds, plus a small constant amount for non-
subsidised local construction.

Not all costs reported herein are properly attributable to
the standards created under the authority of P.L. 92-500.
The costs attributable to those standards are incremental;
only those costs associated with going from an existing
level of treatment to a higher level of treatment necessary
to meet technology and water quality objectives are properly
attributable to the standards.  Thus, costs for replacement
of facilities built prior to 1972 which do not require a
different level of treatment, the cost associated with the
lower level of treatment that would otherwise have been
achieved in facilities built after 1972, and the cost
associated with a higher level of treatment than is


                           3-47

-------
necessary to meet the standards should be excluded from the
costs attributed to meeting standards.  However, since
Section 516(b) directs assessment of the costs of "carrying
out the provisions of the Act," and the construction grant
program is an integral part of the Act, the entire range of
costs attributed to that program are reported herein.

The concept of cost employed in this section is that of cost
to society, not financial cost.  Hence, the interest rate
applied in the annualization of investment cost (10 percent)
does not represent the cost of borrowing funds in the
municipal bond market; rather, it represents the opportunity
cost of applying to the public sector those funds which
might otherwise be yielding a competitive return in the
private sector.
STATUS OF PUBLIC SEWERAGE

Since 1910, the nation's public sewerage treatment systems
have improved dramatically through expansions in the scope
of their coverage and in their capabilities for treatment,
but the systems have not kept pace with the amount of
residuals to be processed.  The coverage of the systems has
kept pace with population growth and expanded to encompass
parts of the population previously not served.  Between 1910
and 1971, U.S. population increased by 37 percent; the
population served by sewers increased 146 percent, and the
population served by treatment facilities increased by 337
percent.  As Table 3-1 indicates, approximately 78 percent
of the population was served by sewers and 98 percent of the
sewered population was served by treatment facilities by
197 Ji.

The capability of the systems to treat waste has improved as
well.  The population discharging untreated wastes into our
waterways in 1971 was slightly more than one-tenth of what
it was in 1910  (see Table 3-1).  In the same period, the
number of persons whose wastes receive primary treatment
(physical processes that remove roughly 90 percent of solids
and about 35 percent of BOD5) had more than tripled.  The
population employing secondary treatment  (biological
processes that produce only a slight incremental reduction
in solids concentrations, but raise the removal of BOD5_ to
the' 70 to 95 percent level) increased more than sixfold, and
now includes about 81 percent of the sewered population.
Not only have more persons been connected to more advanced
types of sewerage treatment facilities, but technological
modifications have improved the removal efficiencies of each
type.  One result is that the amount of BOD5 removed by
                           3-18

-------
treatment facilities in 1974 exceeded the total BOD5
produced by sanitary sewers in 1957 (see Table 3-2).


                         Table 3-1.
                 Degree of Sewage Treatment

        Population Served by Sewerage (In Millions)

              No          Primary     Secondary   Tertiary
Year          Treatment   Treatment   Treatment4  Treatment

1940             29.9        15.1        18.9
1945             27.9        17.2        21.7
1948             28.0        18.4        22,7
1957             23.8        25.7        43.3
1962             17.0        32.7        61.2
1968             10.9        36.9        85.6        0.3
1974              3.2        54.6       105.0        2.7

Sources:   Engineering News Record, survey of
           municipalities 1940-74; EPA and predecessor
           agencies in "Municipal Waste Inventories",
           1973 Needs Survey.

» Plants employing secondary-type technology; they may not
  meet current definitions of secondary effluent standards.
                         Table 3-2.
            Effect of Sanitary Sewage Treatment

                    (Millions of pounds of BOD5_ per day)

              Collected                        Discharged by
              by Sanitary    Reduced by        Treatment
Year          Sewers1        Treatment*        Plants

1957             16.4            7.7              8.7
1962             19.8           10.8              9.0
1968             23.3           15.0              8.3
1974             27.6           18.5              9.1

1 Based on 0. 167 of BODS per sewered person per day.
2 Based on the distribution of treatment facilities shown
  in Table 3-1 and on estimates of removal efficiency
  from a variety of sources.
                           3-49

-------
Although the coverage and treatment capability of the
systems have increased, the systems have not kept pace with
the increasing volume of residuals to be removed.  While one
portion of the system, the treatment facilities, increased
by 140 percent the amount of BOD.5 diverted from our
waterways, another portion, sanitary sewers, more than
offset that improvement by delivering more BOD5_ for
treatment.  These figures may be overly pessimistic as they
pertain to sanitary sewerage only; they do not reflect the
net result of initiating public treatment for a large  (but
unknown) number of industrial facilities that previously
discharged directly into our waterways.  On the other hand,
they do not take into account the increased concentration of
wastes in sanitary sewerage resulting from such innovations
as kitchen garbage disposals.

Although expenditures in the past two decades have
significantly expanded the capital stock of public sewerage
facilities, the prospect for future decades is that
replacement expenditures may consume larger proportions of
the annual investment in sewerage facilities.  Between 1855
and 1973, the nation invested an estimated $61.8 billion
(1972 dollars) in its public sewerage facilities (see Table
3-3) ; this investment represents about 5 percent of the
total state and local government capital expenditures for
all purposes since 1915 and resulted in approximately $31
billion worth of facilities in place by 1971.  The
replacement costs shown here represent an upper bound since
they are based on conservative lifetimes of 50 and 25 years
for sewers and treatment plants, respectively.
                           3-50

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Period

1856-69
1870-79
1880-89
1890-99
1900-09
1910-19
1920-29
1930-34
1935-39
1940-45
1946-56
1957-61
1962-67
1968-73
                         Table 3-3.
          Investment in Public Sewerage Facilities

                          (Billions of 1972 dollars)
Gross                      Net
Investment1  Replacement2  Investment
      0.5
      0.6
      0,8
      1.2
      1.5
      2.7
      5.7
      2.5
      4.8
      2.1
     10.8
      7.5
      9.1
     12.0
$
     Totals   $ 61.8
0. 1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.6
1.3
1.6
2.3
5.1
3.2
4.8
5.4
               $ 27.6
$  0.4
   0.5
   0.6
   0.8
   0.9
   1.8
   4.1
   1.2
   3.2
  (0.2)
   5.7
   4.3
   4.3
   6.6

$ 34.2
End of
Period
Capitali-
zation

   $  0.4
      0.9
      1.5
      2.3
      3.2
      5.0
      9.1
     10.3
     13.5
     13.3
     19.0
     23.3
     27.6
     34.2
1 Based on data published by the Department of Commerce and
  by EPA; all values converted to 1972 dollars through use
  of EPA's sewerage construction cost indices and the dis-
  continued Associated General Contractor's Index of
  Construction costs.
« Estimated funds required to "replace" existing facilities,
  rather than add new capacity.  Computed at a rate of 2
  percent for sewers and 4 percent for plants, based on
  estimates of the relative weight of each in each period.
Two aspects of this series of investments stand out.  First,
the bulk of sewerage capital has been installed very
recently; almost 80 percent since 1929, 60 percent since
World War II, and more than 30 percent since 1961.  Second,
the stock of capital in place is so large compared to annual
investments that replacement of existing facilities has
absorbed approximately 50 percent of all capital
expenditures since 1961.  The current level of replacement
costs is close to $1 billion a year and rising in proportion
to the growth of the capital stock.
                           3-51

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Needs survey summary

Public Law 93-243 required that estimates be obtained by a
nationwide survey utilizing a modified version of the survey
questionnaire prepared for the 1973 Needs Survey.  To comply
with the legislative purpose of obtaining a comprehensive
estimate of all the costs of meeting the 1983 goals of the
FWPCA, the guidelines for the 197* survey were far less
constraining than those for the 1973 survey, which was
restricted to documented needs available to meet the 1977
goals of the FWPCA.
CATEGORIES OF NEED

The state estimates of the cost of constructing publicly-
owned treatment works needed to meet the 1983 goals of the
Act are divided into the five major categories used in the
1973 survey, plus one new category for treatment and/or
control of stormwaters; two of these categories were divided
for the 1971 survey.  All six categories are briefly
described below.

  Category I.  This includes the costs of facilities which
would provide a legally-required level of secondary
treatment, or best practicable wastewater treatment
technology (BPWTT).  For the purpose of the survey, BPWTT
and secondary treatment were to be considered synonymous.

  Category II.  Costs reported in this category are for
treatment facilities that must achieve more stringent levels
of treatment.  This requirement exists where water quality
standards require removal of such pollutants as phosphorous,
ammonia, nitrates, or organic substances.

  Category IIIA.  These costs are for correction of sewer
system infiltration/inflow problems.  Costs could also be
reported for a preliminary sewer system analysis and for the
more detailed Sewer System Evaluation Survey.

  Category IIIB.  Requirements for replacement and/or major
rehabilitation of existing sewage collection systems are
reported in this category.  Costs were to be reported if the
corrective actions were necessary to the total integrity of
the system.  Major rehabilitation is considered extensive
repair of existing sewers beyond the scope of normal
maintenance programs.

  Category IVA.  This category includes costs for
replacement or major rehabilitiation of existing collection
                           3-52

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systems necessary to the total integrity and performance of
waste treatment works.

  Category IVB.  This category consists of costs of new
collection systems in existing communities with sufficient
existing or planned capacity to adequately treat collected
sewage.

  Category V.  Costs reported for this category are to
prevent periodic bypassing of untreated wastes from combined
sewers to an extent violating water quality standards or
effluent limitations.  It does not include treatment and/or
control of stormwaters.

  Category VI.  States were also asked to make a rough cost
estimate in a sixth category, "Treatment and/or Control of
Stormwaters11.  This includes the costs of abating pollution
from stormwater run-off channelled through sewers and other
conveyances used only for such run-off.  The costs of
abating pollution from stormwaters channelled through
combined sewers which also carry sewage are included in
Category V.  Category VI was added so the survey would
provide an estimate of all eligible facility costs, as
explicitly required by P.L. 93-2»3.

The estimates were to be reported in June 1973 dollars, and
are therefore comparable to the costs in the 1973 survey.
Estimates were also to be based on the projected 1990
population as they were in the 1973 survey.
RESULTS OF THE SURVEY

The total of all state estimates and their comparison with
the 1973 totals is summarized by category in Table 3-*.
There are three sets of figures for 1974: (a) the original
state data as reported in the May 6, 1975, revised report;
(b) the state figures after correcting inadvertent clerical
reporting inaccuracies; and (c)  the set of estimates
resulting from EPA adjustments based on evaluation of
technical validity of cost estimates and identification of
data anomalies.
                           3-53

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                      Table 3-4.
Summary Table  of National Estimates  for Construction
 of Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities
                      (Millions of 1973 Dollars)
Category
I Secondary Treatment
n More Stringent Treatment
Required by Water Quality
OTA Correction of Sewer
Infiltration/Inflow
OTB Major Sewer Rehabilitation
IV A Collector Sewers
IVB Interceptor Sewers
V Correction of Combined
Sewer Overflows
VI Treatment and /or Control
of Storm waters
Totals
Totals for Categories I,
n, and IVB Combined
1974 Survey
(A)
State
Preliminary
Data
11,679
21,311
5,355
7,070
23, 090
19, 932
26, 070
235,006
349, 613
52,922
(B)
State
Corrected
Data
12,628
20, 330
5,348
7,330
24, 583
19, 758
31, 192
235, 006
356, 175
52,716
(C)
EPA
Adjusted
Data
12. 629
15, 776
5,287
7,287
17,458
17,923
31, 076
235, 006
342,442
46, 328

-------
The final EPA-adjusted 1974 figure includes $46 billion for
Categories I, II, and IVB that reflect the costs for the
traditional water quality program of treatment plants and
interceptors.  An additional $61 billion is included for
Categories III, IVA, and V.  The state estimates for the new
Category VI  (treatment and/or control of stormwaters) are
$235 billion.  Total costs for all categories reported in
the survey, therefore, come to $342 billion.

The national costs in Table 3-4 are disaggregated among the
states in Table 3-5.  Costs for Categories I through V are
the EPA-adjusted data, and for Category VI they are the
state preliminary data.  The limitations of the survey
technique are best illustrated by the per capita by state
for Categories I through V (Table 3-6)  and for Category VI
(Table 3-7).  Whereas one would anticipate similar per
capita cost for states in the same region, there is a wide
intraregional variation in cost among states.
                           3-55

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                          Table 3-5.
  1971 costs-Reported  for Construction of  Publicly-Owned
              Wastewater Treatment Facilities
               (EPA-Adjusted state Estimates)

                               Categories
                           (Millions of 1973 Dollars)
Region
I Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
n New Jersey
New York
Puerto Rico
Virgin Islands
HI Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
District of
Columbia
IV Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
V Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio
Wisconsin
VI Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Texas
Oklahoma
VH Iowa
Kansas
Missouri
Nebraska
Total

-------
                    Table 3-5.  (Continued)
   1971 Costs-Reported  for Construction of Publicly-Owned
               Wastewater Treatment Facilities
                (EPA-Adjusted state Estimates)

                               Categories
                           (Millions of 1973 Dollars)
Region
Vin Colorado
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
K Arizona
California
Hawaii
Nevada
American Samoa
Guam
Trust
Territories
X Alaska
Maho
Oregon
Washington
Total
Total
d-V)
523
127
189
75
291
84
500
6,208
523
209
52
93

195
405
393
1,081
1,836
107,43!
I
Secondary
Treatment
78
39
51
33
195
40
159
1,713
203
30
5
36

90
234
46
146
283
12, 629
n
More
Stringent
Treatment
122
16
0
. 32
0
0
8
1,242
27
102
0
9

18
0
71
1
56
15,776
HIA
Corr.
Infil./
Inflow
29
5
1
1
14
0
1
343
0
1
0
2

1
4
22
56
91
5,287
IIIB
Major
Rehab
24
1
0
0
2
0
1
47
0
0
18
0

0
1
16
324
454
7,287
IVA
New
Collector
Sewers
74
21
63
2
57
28
231
812
84
31
28
31

60
70
102
130
299
17,458
IVB
New
Interceptors
173
35
23
7
23
15
99
1,149
209
45
2
15

25
85
99
161
336
17,923
V
Combined
Sewer
Overflow
23
7
50
0
0
0
0
902
0
0
0
0

0
9
35
262
316
31,076
VI1
no needs
625
344
206
455
no needs
no needs
69,819
14, 600
no needs
42
247

10 needs
558
469
838
1,951
235, 006
State preliminary estimate

-------
                           Table 3-6.
Per Capita Costs Reported for Construction of Publicly-Owned
       Treatment Facilities Based on 1990 Population
                 (EPA-Adjusted state Estimates)

                      Categories I, H, in, IVA. IVB, and V
                          (Millions of 1973 Dollars)
Region
I Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
n New Jersey
New York
Puerto Rico
Virgin Islands
in Delaware .
Maryland
Virginia
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
District of Columbia
IV Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
V Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio
Wisconsin
VI Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Texas
Oklahoma
VH Iowa
Kansas
Missouri
Nebraska
Vin Colorado
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
1973
Costs
1,409
364
1,485
508
367
168
3,382
8.032
590
44
329
681
1.34S
614
4,210
1,081
444
2,371
1,031
1,032
268
900
757
695
4,089
1,040
3.325
1,065
2,833
787
355
451
115
888
624
502
671
972
404
426
74
46
43
225
40
1974
EPA
Costs
1,588
575
2,964
740
447
204
4,894
15,302
603
44
546
3,642
1,884
2,360
5,454
1,052
778
2,704
1,519
1,824
494
1,480
977
1,210
6,234
2,903
8,102
1,330
7,773
2.044
898
1,283
155
3,222
1.484
911
1,783
2,298
924
523
127
189
75
291
84
1990
Population
[Thousands)
3.946
1,142
7,052
907
1,134
536
8,822
21, 799
3,786
116
793
5,318
5,958
1,845
13,332
764
3,850
11,728
5,667
3,741
2,359
5,880
3,023
4,800
13, 177
6.433
10,961
4,577
13,202
5,218
2,068
4,159
1,232
13, 666
2,942
3,053
2,509
5,488
1,562
2.848
714
606
643
1,509
600
1973 Costs
per Capita
357-
318
210
560
323
313
383
368
155
379
414
128
225
332
315
CH«?}
*~miii T IT -in (
115
202
181
275
113
153
250
144
310
161
303
232
214
150
171
108
,%!_
1641
212
164
267
177
258
149
103
75
66
149
66
1974 EPA
Costs
per Capita
402
503
420
815
394
380
554
701
159
379
688
684
316
1,279
409
1, 376
202
230
268
487
209
251
323
252
473
451
739
290
588
391
434
308
125
235
504
298
710
418
591
183
177
311
116
192
140
Change
in per
Capita Costs
+ 45
+185
+210
+255
+ 71
+ 67
+171
+333
+ 4
+ 0
+274
+556
+ 91
+947
+ 94
- 38
+ 87
+ 28 "
+ 87
+212
+ 96
+ 98
+ 73
+108
+163
+290
+436
+ 58
+374
+241
+263
+200
+ 32
+171
+292
+134
+443
+241
+333
+34
+ 74
+236
+ 50
+ 43
+ 74

-------
                    Table 3-6. (Continued)
Per Capita Costs Reported for Construction of Publicly-Owned
       Treatment Facilities Based on  1990  Population
                (EPA-Adjusted State Estimates)

                      Categories I, H. in, IVA, IVB, and V
                           (Millions of 1973 Dollars)
Region
K Arizona
California
Hawaii
Nevada
American Samoa
Guam
Trust Territories
X Alaska
Idaho
Oregon
Washington
Total
•
1973
Costs
238
6,050
523
227
8
22
8
. 205
112
568
1,080
60, 123
1974 EPA
Costs
500
6,208
523
209
52
93
195
405
393
1,081
1,835
107,438
1990
Population
(Thousands)
3,384
26,601
1,010
933
400
275
205
408
758
2,943
4,194
6,216
1973 Costs
per Capita
70
227
517
243
200
80
39
502
147
193
257
234
1974 EPA
Costs
per Capita
147
233
517
224
1,300
338
951
992
518
367
437
419
Change
in per
Capita Costs
+ 77
+ 6
+ 0
- 19
+1,100
+258
+912
+490
+371
+174
+180
+185

-------
                         Table 3-7.
          Per Capita Costs Reported for Treatment
               and/or Control of Stormwaters
                (Preliminary State Estimates)

                                   CATEGORY VI
                           (In Millions of 1973 Dollars)
  TOTALS
REGION I
  Connecticut
  Maine
  Massachusetts
  New Hampshire
  Rhode Island
  Vermont
REGION II
  New Jersey
  New York
  Puerto Rico
  Virgin Islands
REGION III
  Delaware
  Maryland
  Virginia         <
  west Virginia
  Pennsylvania
  Dist. of Columbia
REGION IV
  Alabama
  Florida
  Georgia
  Kentucky
  Mississippi
  North Carolina
  south Carolina
  Tennessee
REGION V
  Illinois
  Indiana
  Michigan
  Minnesota
  Ohio
  Wi sconsin
Total Cost

235,006

  2,667
    299
  3,121
    212
    927
    147

  7,55«»
 20,341
    289
     66

    608
  9,530
 19,586
  1,7*0
  3,743
    300

  3,332
  4,230
  2,796
  1,898
    424
  6,881
  2,508
  4,097

  2,225
  2,397
  3,630
  1,885
  6,570
  1,914
1990 Population
(Thousands)

   256,216

     3,946
     1,142
     7,052
       907
     1,134
       536

     8,822
    21,799
     3,786
       116

       793
     5,318
     5,958
     1,845
    13,332
       764

     3,850
    11,728
     5,667
     3,741
     2,359
     5,880
     3,023
     4,800

    13,177
     6,433
    10,961
     4,577
    13,202
     5,218
Costs Per
Capita

   917

   676
   262
   443
   234
   817
   274

   856
   933
    76
   567

   767
 1,792
 3,287
   943
   281
   393

   866
   361
   493
   507
   180
 1,170
   830
   854

   169
   373
   331
   414
   498
   367
                           3-60

-------
                   Table 3-7.  (Continued)
          Per Capita Costs Reported for Treatment
               and/or Control of Stormwaters
                (Preliminary State Estimates)

                                   CATEGORY VI
                           (In Millions of  1973 Dollars)
                       Total Cost
1990 Population
(Thousands)
Costs Per
Capita
REGION VI
  Arkansas               2,667
  Louisiana              4,551
  New Mexico                33
  Texas                 11,717
  Oklahoma               3,067
REGION VII
  Iowa                   2,885
  Kansas                 2,242
  Missouri               1,120
  Nebraska                 653
REGION VIII
  Colorado             No Needs
  Montana                  625
  North Dakota             344
  South Dakota             206
  Utah                     455
  Wyoming              No Needs
REGION IX
  Arizona              No Needs
  California            69,819
  Hawaii                14,600
  Navada               No Needs
  American Samoa            42
  Guam                     247
  Trust Territories    No Needs
REGION X
  Alaska                   558
  Idaho                    469
  Oregon                   838
  Washington             1,951
     2,068
     4,159
     1,232
    13,666
     2,942

     3,053
     2,509
     5,488
     1,562

     2,848
       714
       606
       643
     1,509
       348

     3,384
    26,601
     1,010
       933
        40
       275
       205

       408
       758
     2,943
     4,194
 1,290
 1,094
    27
   857
 1,042

   945
   894
   204
   418
   875
   568
   320
   302
 2,625
14,455

 1,039
   898
 1,368
   619
   285
   465
                           3-61

-------
COMPARISON OF RESULTS OF
THE 1973 AND 197U SURVEY

The 197U Agency-adjusted estimates reflect costs for the
traditional water quality program of treatment plants and
interceptors (Categories I, II, and IVB) that are $10
billion greater than the $36 billion reported in the 1973
survey.  The costs reported in 1971 for Categories I through
V are $17 billion greater than the $60 billion reported in
the 1973 survey.  The primary reasons for the increases are
the 1974 elimination of most of the reporting constraints
included in the 1973 survey, the general expanded scope of
the survey to accommodate reporting of all costs for all
treatment facilities that the states felt were necessary in
their implementation of the FWPCA, and to some degree a
better job of identifying and estimating state facility
requirements.

One major impact of the expanded scope of the survey was
that estimates for .treatment plants and interceptors
(Categories I, II, and IVB) could be based on water quality
standards anticipated by the states for the future and were
not limited to those already established in the past, as in
1973.  One result of this approach is evidenced in the
dramatic shift from secondary treatment (Category I) to
plants requiring more stringent levels of treatment
(Category II) .  Estimates for Category III could be reported
for major rehabilitation of sewer systems, as well as
correction of infiltration and inflow.  Major rehabilitation
costs of $7 billion were reported which were not eligible
for consideration in the earlier survey.  These estimates
did not have to be documented with an analysis and detailed
evaluation of the problem as in 1973.  Estimates reported
for correction of combined sewer overflows in Category V
were not limited in 197* by the previous requirement that
they be based on an evaluation of the most economical and/or
effective alternative.  A second major result of the
expanded scope of the survey was the state identification of
$235 billion for the new "Treatment and/or Control of
Stormwaters" category.


Time Phasing and Annualization
of Costs

The 197a annual costs are the sum of the capital costs and
O6M costs.  The capital costs are calculated by amortizing
the replacement value over its economic life at a discount
rate that approximates long-term borrowing rates.  The
economic life of treatment plants is assumed to be 25 years
and that of interceptor and collector sewers is assumed to
                           3-62

-------
be 50 years.  The discount rate used in this report is 10
percent, and the capital cost is based on the assumption
that all capital equipment is financed by borrowing.  The
OSM costs for treatment plants and sewers were calculated by
the cost analysis procedure previously discussed.

The capital costs, based on a replacement value of $3t.2
billion, are estimated to be $3.6 billion, and the OSM costs
are estimated to be $1.5 billion.  The annual costs in 1974
are estimated to be $5.1 billion.

The incremental annual costs over the period 1975-1985 are
the sum of the 197U annual costs (reduced to allow for
capital depreciation)  plus the incremental annual costs over
the period.  The incremental annual costs over the period
will vary greatly depending upon how much capital is put in-
place over the next decade, and the amount of capital put
in-place is primarily determined by the amount of Federal
outlays during the time period.

One estimate of Federal outlays is based on the assumption
that EPA will obligate the first $9.0 billion in contract
authority in fiscal year 1976.  Cumulative outlays, which
would also include outlays under the previous amendments and
the other $9.0 billion in contract authority under the 1972
Amendments would be $20.8 billion,  state and local outlays
to match the Federal outlays and a continuation of the
historical trend of $0.6 billion in state and local outlays
independent of Federal funds would result in total state and
local outlays of $19.8 billion.  Thus, direct capital
outlays for the fiscal year period 1975-1985 would be $U0.6
billion.  A yearly breakdown of these cost projections is
presented in Table 3-8.
                           3-63

-------
                                    Table  3-8.
                   Projection  of Capital  Outlays on
             Public  Sewerage Construction,   1974-1985
                                        (Id Millions of 1973 Dollars)
Assumption
NO New Contract Authority
EPA Grant Outlays
Pre-1973 (nod*1
1972 Act funds1
Total EPA Outlay*
State and Local Outlay*
Match for pre-1373 funds
Match for 1972 Act funds
Project, with no EPA fund.
Total state and Local
Direct Capital Outlay.
Cumulative Direct Outlaya
Assumption
Annual Contract Authority
of STB beginning FY 1977
EPA Grant Outlays
Pre-1973 funds'
1972 Act fault1
New Act funds1
Total EPA Outlays
State and Local Outlay*
Match for pre-1973 hinds2
Match for 1972 Act funds3
Match for new' Act funds3
Project* with no EPA funds
Total State and Local
Direct Capital Outlays
Cumulative Direct Outlay*
1974

1,400
ieo
i.seo

1.400
S3
600
2.052
3,613
3,613



1.400
160

1,560

1,400
S3

600
2,052
3,613
3,613
1975

1.060
S80
1,940

1.060
293
600
1.953
3,893
7,506



1.060
3SO

1.940

1.060
291

600
1,953
3,993
T.506
1976

810
1.990
2.600

810
663
600
2,073
4.973
12.379



810
1.990

2.800

810
663

600
2,073
4,873
12,379
Trans

110
490
600

110
163
600
873
1,473
13, 852



110
490

600

110
163

600
873
1,473
13,852
1977

450
3,950
4,400

450
1,317
600
2.367
6,767
20,619



•450
3,950
too
4.500

450
1.317
33
GOO
2.400
6,900
20. 752
1978

290
4,710
5,000

290
1,570
600
2,460
7.4*0
28,079



290
4.710
TOO
'5.700

290
1,570
233
600
2,693
8,393
29. 145
1»79

140
3.430
3.570

140
1,143
600
1,883
5,453
33, 532



140
3,430
2.200
5,770

140
1,143
733
600
2,616
8.386
37,531
1980

80
1.500
1.580

80
500
600
1,180
2.760
36,292



80
1.500
4,300
5.880

80
500
1.433
600
2,613
8,493,
46,024
1981

50
aio
860

so
270
600
920
1.780
39.072



SO
810
5,900
6.760

50
270
1.C67
600
2.887
9/647
55. 671
1982


80
SO


27
600
627
707
31.779




80
7.500
7, 580


27
2.500
600
3,127
10,707
66, 378
1983



0



600
600
«00
39,379





7,000
7,000



2,333
600
2,933
9,933
76,311
1984



0



600
600
600
39,979





7.000
7,000



2.333
£00
2.933
9,933
86,244
1985



0



600
600
600
40.579





5,000
5.000



1,667
600
2.267
7.267
93.511
Based on the historical time lag between obligation and outlays.
Assumes a 1:1 match, but excluding the effect of approximately $500 million In Federal reimbursable, paid In FY 1975 but related to construction In place
as of 7/1/73.
Assumes a 1:3 match.
Those projection* are currently being revised.
                                      3-61

-------
The incremental annual costs are calculated like the 1974
annual costs with some additional analysis.  The total
amount of outlays for any period are distributed among four
general needs categories^ as follows:
                                No New         $7 Billion New
                                Contract       Contract
                                Authority (%)    Authority (%)

  Treatment Plants                 «5             37
  Sewer Rehabilitation              6              7
  Collectors                       21             21
  Interceptors                     25             32

                                  100            100
The total capital outlays are converted into annual capital
costs with the previous assumptions about economic life and
the costs of borrowing.  The economic life of a sewer
rehabilitation is 25 years.  Operating and maintenance costs
are calculated for each needs category.  The percentage
relationship between estimated capital and OGM costs for
each category is applied to the capital costs projected to
occur in that period in order to arrive at the appropriate
O&M costs.z
                           3-65

-------
Footnotes
     The distribution among the different categories is
     based upon professional judgment after a review of the
     Dodge Reports on construction activities, the 197ft
     Needs Survey, and EPA guidelines.  The percentage of
     funds shifts between the two assumptions because the
     treatment needs are completed given the $5 billion new
     contract authority.

     For treatment plants, the percentage is 7.5 percent and
     for the other three categories, it is 1 percent.
                           3-66

-------
                U. INDUSTRIAL CONTROL COSTS
Introduction
The extent of water pollution and the costs of treating it
vary significantly among industries and among the firms
within an industry; therefore, it is important to examine
the structure, production methods, sources of pollution,
effluent standards, and wastewater control technology for
each industry.  The following sections of this chapter
briefly summarize the relevant characteristics of each
industry and report the estimated annual abatement costs
attributable to achieving full compliance with the 1977
(BPT)  and 1983 (BAT)  effluent standards.

Although 32 industries are summarized in the following
sections, this report does not purport to encompass all
industries or even all parts of any industry.  Only those
industries or parts of an industry which have significant
pollution problems, or for which effluent guidelines have
been defined, are included.  In the interest of brevity,
only the most significant polluting segments of certain
industries have been discussed but costs have been estimated
for the entire industry.  Footnotes to the cost table
following each industry summary will denote the assumptions
used in the cost calculations and the industry operations
that were evaluated.
Methodology

COST CONCEPTS

Only those costs attributable to standards imposed under
P.L. 92-500 have been reported.  Not all water pollution
control costs are associated with this law; an industry may
perform some treatment irrespective of the standards imposed
under the legislation; changes in manufacturing processes
made on grounds of production efficiency or cost-
effectiveness may result in higher levels of effluent
control or a reduction in the use of water; and some
investments in abatement equipment may have been made prior
to the enactment of the law.

The annual investment costs reported herein are not
expenditures; they are the amounts of total investment that
have been annualized; i.e., a capital recovery factor has
been applied to the total capital cost.  Hence, in any year
the actual capital expenditure would far exceed annual
investment cost.  (For purposes of feedback to the INFORUM
Module, expenditures have been used.)
                           3-67

-------
 The costs presented here are incremental.  The cost of
 achieving 1977 Best Practicable Technology (BPT) standards
 is the cost of going from the level of treatment in the base
 year to the level of treatment defined as BPT in the
 effluent guidelines.  The cost of achieving Best Available
 Technology (BAT) is the cost of going from the BPT level of
.treatment (or if such a level is not specified, the base
 year level of treatment) to the level of treatment defined
 as 1983 BAT standard in the effluent guidelines.  The cost
 of achieving New Source Performance Standards  (NSPS) is the
 cost of going from a general industry-wide level of
 treatment in the base year to the cost of meeting the
 effluent guideline standards for new sources.
.V'V1
' MODELING AN INDUSTRY
I
 ;The essential estimating technique used in preparing cost
 'estimates was to define certain models or "typical" plants
 and generalize from these plants to the total industry.
 .Cost sensitive parameters, such as wasteload, water flow,
'.water use efficiency, and treatment-in-place, were defined
 for model or typical plants in EPA Development Documents.
.1. In most cases, the model or typical plant data in these
 .documents were taken from actual plants.  Unfortunately, the
 'lack of statistically adequate samples of the plants in most
 industries render it impossible to know just how "typical"
i the typical plant is in terms of cost-sensitive parameters.
                                      *•
'^'industries may be defined in various ways.  In general, the
 classification scheme used in the EPA Development Documents
 was followed.  A problem with any classification scheme
•, 'arises from the multi-product plant, for example, the
 petrochemical plant which produces a variety of chemicals.
 Such a plant may be subject to more than one effluent
 guideline and may be classified in one of several different
 categories.  An attempt was made to avaid doable -counting
'these plants but no attempt was made to develop costs which
i .adequately reflect the costs of treating residuals generated
1 ,by all products produced in these plants.
 '
 i The plants in an industry have various options by which to
 comply with the water pollution standards.  In general they
.! may:
!
: !  1. Fully treat their effluents.

   2. Pretreat their effluents and discharge to a municipal
      system.
                             3-68

-------
              3. Change their manufacturing process to eliminate,
                 recycle or reduce their effluents.

            To estimate abatement costs for an industry, it is necessary
            to know or assume what fraction of plants in an industry
            take each option.  Of course, there is no data as to what
            proportion of the plants in an industry will take various
            options.  Therefore, judgments were made as to how the
            industry will behave in this respect.  Generally, plants
            were assumed to take the lower cost option, but in no case
            were plants assumed to close rather than comply with the
            standards.  Thus, the costs reported for industries where
            plant closure is a persuasive strategy are overstated.

            All industry costs were estimated using cost curves of the
            standard form Y=AX , where Y is total cost, X is a measure
            of plant size, and the exponent B defines how costs change
            with changes in plant size.

            In some cases, special detailed industry studies, which
            produced more precise estimates than this simple model,
            became available after the model calculations were
            completed.  These values are reported along with SEAS-
            estimated values in the various industrial summaries which
            follow.


            Industry Cost Summaries

^-          Table 4-1 lists the industries in the sequence for which
            estimates have been developed by SEAS; this sequence is also
            followed to arrange the Group I industry summaries that are
            presented in this section.  The distinction between Group I
            and Group II is that Group I industries are considered major
            polluting industries and Group II industries are considered
            to be of lesser significance as polluters.  Phase I and
            Phase II refer to the manner in which the EPA Effluent
            Guidelines Division has subdivided the industries for
            purposes of developing effluent limitations guidelines.
            Generally, the most significant polluting segments of an
            industry have been included in Phase I.  Table U-1 also
            lists the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code for
            each industry evaluated by SEAS.
                                       3-69

-------
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FEEDLOTS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  Feedlots is a
term which applies to many different types of facilities
used to raise animals in a "high density" situation.  For
the purpose of establishing effluent limitations guidelines,
the term feedlot has been defined by the following three
conditions:

  •  A high concentration of animals held in a small area
     for periods of time in con-junction with the production
     of meat, milk, eggs, and/or breeding stock; and/or the
     stabling of horses;

  •  The transportation of feed to the animals for
     consumption;

  •  By virtue of the confinement of animals or poultry, the
     land or area will neither sustain vegetation nor be
     available for crop or forage production.

The effluent limitations guidelines issued to date  (phase I)
by the EPA cover feedlots for beef cattle, dairy cattle,
swine, chickens, turkeys, sheep, ducks, and horses.  A
variety of facility types are included within the definition
of feedlots; these include:  open lots, housed lots, barns
with stalls, free stall barns, slotted floor houses, solid
concrete floor houses, a variety of poultry houses, and wet
lots for ducks containing swimming areas.

Raw materials used in the feedlots industry are simply feed,
water, and in some cases, bedding.  The production processes
are defined by the type of facilities employed, and consist
mostly of delivering supplies to the animals and carrying
away manure and litter.

Although most of the feedlots are classified as small, the
bulk of production for many animals is accounted for by the
very large producers.  Only 1.1 percent of the fed-cattle
feedlots accounted for over 60 percent of 1972 production.
Although this concentration is not so dominant in some of
the other animal groups, the trend toward larger units of
production is common in all segments of the industry.

Many producers have diversified into grain production for
direct marketing and production of other livestock and
poultry.  Some are involved in feed grain production, feed-
manufacturing, feeder-cattle production, and/or meat
packing.
                           3-72

-------
Ownership of commercial feedlots ranges from sole-
proprietorships to corporate farms, including co-operatives.
The feedlot operator may own the animals being fed or,
particularly in the case of fed-cattle, may custom-feed
animals owned by others.

Projections of production capacity through 1983 for the
cattle, dairy, and hog segments of the feedlots industry
anticipate that the trend is toward fewer numbers of
production units but the very large units will continue to
increase their output volume.  Similar projections are not
available for'the remaining segments of the feedlots
industry.  However, the growth of production of major
agricultural commodities for the period 1970-85 has been
estimated.  The percentage changes are as follows:  beef and
veal (33 percent) ; pork (13 percent) j milk (2 percent) ;
chicken  (36 percent); turkey (Ut percent); eggs (10
percent); and lamb and mutton (65 percent).  In all segments
of the feedlots industry, it is anticipated that the trend
toward larger feedlots will continue.  No growth projections
are available for ducks or horses.

Haste Sources and Pollutants.  Animal feedlots wastewater
originates from two principal sources:

  •  Rainfall runoff

  •  Plush or washdown water used to clean animal wastes
     from pens, stalls, milk center areas, houses,
     continuous overflow watering systems or similar
     facilities, spillages, duck swimming areas, washing of
     animals, dust control, etc.

The amount of wastewater varies considerably, depending upon
the way manure, bedding, etc., are stored and handled; in
the outdoor feedlots, rainfall and soil characteristics
determine wastewater characteristics.

Animal feedlot wastes generally include the following
pollutants:

  •  Bedding or litter  (if used) and animal hair or feathers

  •  Water and milking center wastes

  •  Spilled feed

  •  Undigested and partially digested food or feed
     additives

  •  Digestive juices


                           3-73

-------
  •  Biological products of metabolism

  •  Micro-organisms from the digestive tract

  •  Cells and cell-debris from the digestive tract

  •  Residual soil and sand.

The primary discharge constituents of concern for pollution
control can be described as organic solids, nutrients,
salts, and bacterial contaminants.  The following specific
pollutant parameters have been identified as being of
particular importance:  BOD, COD, fecal coliform, total
suspended solids, phosphorus, ammonia and other nitrogen
forms, and dissolved solids.

With the exception of the duck feedlot subcategory, EPA has
concluded that animal feedlots can achieve a BPT level of
waste control which prevents the discharge of any wastes
into waterways by July 1, 1977, except for overflows due to
excessive rainfall or similar unusual climatic events (10-
year, 24-hour storm as defined by the National Weather
Service).  The effluent limitations for discharges from duck
feedlot s have been set at 0.9 kilogram of BODS^ per day for
every 1,000 ducks being fed, and a total viable coliform
count less than that recommended by the National Technical
Advisory Committee for shellfish-producing waters which is
400 fecal coliform per 100 milliliters.  The effluent
limitations guidelines for all subcategories effective July
1, 1983 (BAT), and for all new sources (NSPS) are still at
no discharge of wastewater pollutants, except for overflows
due to rainfalls in excess of the 25-year, 24-hour storm (as
defined by the National Weather Service) .

Control Technology and Costs.  In-process technologies used
for the control of wastewaters from animal feedlots include
site selection, selection of production methods, water
utilization practices, feed formulation and utilization,
bedding and litter utilization, and housekeeping procedures;
all of these are important in minimizing wastewater flow and
pollutants.

The various technologies available for end-of-process
treatment may be classified as either partial or complete.
Partial technologies are defined as those that produce a
product or products which are neither sold or completely
utilized on the feedlot.  Thus, gasification and
incineration of manure are considered partial technologies,
because a significant quantity of ash must be disposed of.
Lagoons, trickling filters, and other biological systems are
classified as partial technologies because the effluent may
                           3-74

-------
not be suitable for discharge, and in all cases sludge
disposal is necessary.  Complete treatment technologies
produce a marketable product or a product that can be
entirely reused at the feedlot, and which has no appreciable
byproducts, residues, or polluted water discharge.  The
dehydration and sale of manure, for example, is a complete
technology.  The spreading of animal wastes on land for crop
fertilization is also a complete control technology.

The 1977 BPT guidelines for all animal feedlots (except
those for ducks), the 1983 BAT, and the NSPS guidelines all
assume the use of complete control technology.  The BPT
guidelines are based on the containment of all contaminated
liquid runoff and the application of these liquids, as well
as the generated solid wastes, to productive cropland at a
rate which will provide moisture and nutrients that can be
utilized by the crops.  Technologies applicable to BAT
guidelines include some of the complete technologies, such
as wastelage, oxidation ditch-mixed liquor refeed, and the
recycling of wet-lot water for ducks, which are not yet
fully available for general use.  The BPT guidelines for
duck feedlots require the equivalent of primary settling,
aeration, secondary settling, and chlorination prior to
discharge.

Comprehensive and reliable data are not available on the
number of feedlots that will require construction of
pollution control facilities to meet the effluent
limitations guidelines.  It is generally accepted that
housed (total confinement) and pasture operations can
generally meet the guidelines without new investment or
operating cost outlays.

Furthermore, open or partially-open feedlots may be situated
so that they are not point-source dischargers.  Finally,
some feedlots have already installed control facilities
which meet the guidelines' requirements.  Recent estimates
suggest that only 10 to 10 percent of all feedlots will
require additional investment for control facilities.
                           3-75

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (G8P)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and it considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $t»9,9
  Incremental BPT OSM           $ U.O

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the new data are changes in Feedlot
inventory estimates, differences in beef production
estimates, and breadth of industry coverage (SEAS considers
beef only, while GSP considers small animal production
also).
  Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December,  1975.
   (Revised January, 1976)
                            3-76

-------
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-------
BEET SUGAR INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  There were 52
beet sugar plants owned by 11 companies in 1973.  An
additional two plants began processing in 1974 and a third
began operations in 1975.

The size range is classified according to production
capacity, small (2,086 metric tons per day), medium  (2,086-
3,537 metric tons per day), and large (3,537 metric tons per
day) .

Typical plant production is estimated to be 3,265 kkg sliced
beets per day.  The main products from this industry are
refined sugar, dried beet pulp  (used for animal feed), and
molasses.

The beet sugar processing industry is a subcategory of the
sugar processing industry.  Water is commonly used for six
principal purposes: (1) transporting (fluming) of beets to
the processing operation,  (2) washing beets,  (3) processing
(extraction of sugar from the beets), (1)  transporting beet
pulp and lime mud cake waste, (5) condensing vapors from
evaporators and crystallization pans, and (6)  cooling.

Transporting beets into the plant is accomplished by water
flowing in a narrow channel  (flume)  that removes adhered
soil.  The beets are then lifted from the flume and spray
washed.  Flume water accounts for about 50 percent of the
total plant water consumption.

Process water is associated with the operations of
extracting sugar from the beets.  Diffusers draw the raw
juice from the beets into a solution which contains 10-15
percent sugar.  Exhausted beet pulp is later pressed to
remove moisture.  This exhausted pulp water is usually
recycled back to the diffuser.

Lime mud cake waste results when lime is added to the raw
juice and the solution is pumped with carbon dioxide gas,
causing calcium carbonate to precipitate.   The sludge formed
contains suspended impurities from the juice.

Water from barometric condensers is employed in the
operation of pan evaporators and crystallizers in the
industry.  Water is used in large quantities,  but the
quality is not critical since the source of cooling water
comes from wells or streams.  Condenser water is usually
cooled by some device and recycled for use in the plant.
                           3-79

-------
In addition to the above, about i»0 percent of the plants
employ the Steffen process to recover additional sugar.
Syrup remaining from the above processes is concentrated to
form molasses, which is desugared by the Steffen process as
a method of sugar recovery,  water is used to dilute the
molasses and calcium oxide is added to the solution, causing
precipitation.  The precipitation process produces the
Steffen filtrate and recovered sugar; the filtrate may be
directly discharged as a waste or it may be mixed with beet
pulp to produce byproducts.

The sugar industry is protected and operates on a quota
system (domestic and foreign) established by the Federal
Sugar Act of 1948 and amended in July 1962.  Under this Act,
the total national sugar requirement is projected annually
and sales quotas to domestic producers are adjusted
accordingly.  The Act also includes a provision for the
industry to increase its production at a rate of 3 percent
annually.  Areas of future growth will be along the Red
River between northern Minnesota and North Dakota, and the
Columbia River Basin.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The major waste sources stem
from the primary production processes.  These include:
(1) beet transport and washing, (2) processing (extraction
of sugar from the beets), (3) carbonation of raw juice, and
(1) Steffen processing  (for those plants involved in
desugaring of molasses).  Barometric condensers are also a
wastewater source.  The primary wastes resulting from the
beet sugar processing industry are: flume water, lime mud
cake from carbonation process, barometric condenser water,
and Steffen process dilution water used to dilute molasses
for desugarization.

The basic parameters used in establishing water effluent
guidelines to meet BPT are: BOD5, total suspended solids,
pH, fecal coliform, and temperature.

Control Technology and Costs.  Presently, 11 of the 52
operating plants are achieving zero discharge of wastewaters
to navigable waters.  A total of five plants discharge flume
and/or condenser water to municipal sewage systems.

Current pollution control technology does not provide a
single operation that is completely applicable under all
circumstances.  The major disposal methods are: reuse of
wastes, coagulation, waste retention ponds or lagooning, and
irrigation.

BPT and BAT are extensive recycle and reuse of wastewaters
within the processing operation with no discharge or
                           3-80

-------
controlled discharge of process wastewater pollutants to
navigable waters.  To implement this level of technology,
the following are required:

  •  Flume waters.  Recycling with partial or complete land
     disposal of excess wastewater.  This includes:
     (1)  screening, (2)  SS removal and control in the
     recirculating system, and (3) pH control for
     minimization of odors, bacterial populations, foaming,
     and corrosive effects.

  •  Barometric condenser water.   Recycling for condenser or
     other inplant uses with land disposal of excess
     condenser water.

  •  Land disposal of lime mud slurry and/or reuse or
     recovery.

  •  Return of pulp press water and other process water to
     the diffuser.

  •  Use of continuous diffusers.

  •  Use of pulp driers.

  •  Handling all miscellaneous wastes (washings)  by
     subsequent treatment and reuse or land disposal.

  •  Intrainment control devices on barometric condensers to
     minimize entrainment.

The recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P) *.  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GCP estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

                                Total    Existing    New

  Incremental BPT Investment    $11.5      9.6       1.9
  Incremental BPT OSM           $ 0.7      0.6       0.1
                           3-81

-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are different
assumptions for industry growth, differences in attribution
of O5M to federal laws, different assumptions of land costs,
different model plant cost assumptions, and different
distribution of investment costs over industry.
  Gianessi, L, P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-82

-------
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CANE SUGAR REPINING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  There are a
total of 24 cane sugar refineries in the continental United
States and Hawaii.  Of these, 18 are crystalline, H are
liquid, and 2 are combination crystalline-liquid refineries.
Crystalline cane refineries are classified into two size
ranges: 172-H99 and 635-3,175 metric tons per day of melted
sugar, and there is one range for liquid cane sugar
refineries: 272-771 metric tons per day of melted sugar.

The cane sugar refining industry consists of two
subcategories: (1) crystalline cane sugar refining, and
(2) liquid cane sugar refining.  Liquid sugar production is
essentially the same as crystalline sugar production except
that the primary product is not recrystallized.

Raw sugar consists primarily of crystals of sucrose and
small percentages of dextrose and levulose, with various
impurities such as particles, organic and inorganic salts
and micro-organisms.  A film of molasses is contained in raw
sugar.  Crystalline raw sugar is washed to remove part of
the molasses film, placed into solution, taken through
various purification steps, and finally recrystallized.

The major processes involved in cane sugar refining are:
(1) melting, (2)  clarification, (3) decolorization,
(1) evaporation,   (5) crystallization, and  (6)  finishing.
Melting is the first step where raw crystals are put into
syrup solution by heating and then fine-screened to remove
coarse materials.  Clarification is the step where screened
melt liquor still containing fine suspended and colloidal
matter is treated chemically to form precipitation of
organics.  Decolorization involves physical absorption of
impurities and color using bone char as a primary media to
remove color.  Evaporation consists of concentration of the
decolorized sugar liquor and sweet water in continuous type
evaporators.  Crystallization of the concentrated sugar
liquor and sweet waters occurs in batch-type evaporators
called vacuum pans which must be supersaturated in order to
entrain the sugar on the pan.  Finishing provides drying or
granulation which removes moisture and separates the
crystals that are later cooled and fine-screened.

The molasses produced as a byproduct of cane sugar refining
is used as a sweetener, as an ingredient for animal feed,
for the making of alcohol, for organic chemicals, and other
uses.
                           3-85

-------
rt is estimated that the capacity of the cane sugar industry
in 1971 was 30,539 metric tons per day of melted sugar.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Major process waste from cane
sugar refining include char wash, Wastewater from
decolorization, and activated carbon process water from non-
char refineries.  Most of the waste streams produced in
other processes are recovered as low purity sweet water.
Wastewater from barometric condenser cooling is usually
recirculated and represents a minor waste stream.

Sources of wastewater pollutants are associated with the
water used as an integral part of the process (primarily the
decolorization techniques of either bone char washing or
activated carbon washing), the result of entrainment of
sucrose into barometric condenser cooling water, and the
water used to slurry the filter cake.

Parameters under effluent guidelines for meeting BPT, BAT,
and NSPS include BOD!>f suspended solids, and pH.  Additional
parameters of significance include COD, temperature,
sucrose, alkalinity, total coliforms, fecal coliforms, total
dissolved solids, and nutrients.

Currently, 50 percent of crystalline sugar refineries and 60
percent of liquid cane sugar refineries discharge into
municipal systems.  The average wastewater discharged is
38.ft m3/kkg from crystalline sugar refineries, and 18.8
m'/kkg from liquid cane sugar refineries.

Control Technology and Costs.  Current technology for
control and treatment of cane sugar refinery wastewaters
consists primarily of process control  (recycling and reuse
of water, prevention of sucrose entrainment in barometric
condenser cooling water, recovery of sweet waters),
impoundage (land retention), and disposal of process water
to municipal sewer systems.

Best Practicable Technology consists of a combination of in-
plant changes and end-of-pipe treatment.  In-plant changes
include:  (1)  collection and recovery of all floor drainage,
(2) use of improved baffling systems, demisters, and/or
other control devices to minimize sucrose entrainment in
barometric condenser cooling water, and  (3) dry handling of
filter cakes after desweetening with disposal to sanitary
landfills, or complete containment of filter cake slurries.
End-of-pipe treatment consists of biological treatment of
all wastewater discharges other than uncontaminated  (non-
contact) cooling water and barometric condenser cooling
water.
                           3-86

-------
Best Available Technology is essentially the same but, in
addition to BPT, the following are applicable: (1) recycle
of barametric condenser cooling water by utilizing either a
cooling tower or pond, (2) biological treatment of the
assumed 2 percent blowdown from the cooling system, and
(3) sand filtration of effluent from the biological
treatment system.  Essentially, the same control technology
is applicable to both crystalline and liquid cane sugar
refineries.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (G6P)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

                              Phase I &
                              Phase II   Phase I  Phase II

  Incremental BPT Investment    $21.6      7.7      13.9
  Incremental BPT OGM           $ 6.tt      2.2       U.1

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are industry
definition expansion  (G&P includes the Phase II segment of
the industry), and differences in attribution of O&M to
federal laws.  Note that Phase I estimates from both studies
are, nonetheless, within an acceptable range of
computational variance.
1 Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-87

-------
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DAIRY PROCESSING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities.  In 1970, there
were 5,241 dairy plants reported in the United States.  The
size of each plant is determined by the number of employees
required, where a small operation has 1-19 employees, a
medium one has 20-99 employees, and the largest over 100
employees.

The dairy processing industry comprises 12 product-related
operations: (1) receiving stations, (2) fluid products,
(3) cultured products,  (1) cottage cheese, (5) butter,
(6) natural cheese, (7) ice cream, (8) ice cream mix,
(9) condensed milk, (10) dry milk, (11) condensed whey, and
(12) dry whey.

A great variety of operations are employed in the dairy
products industry, but for simplification, they are
considered to be a chain of operations involving:
(1) receiving and storage, (2) clarification,
(3) separation, (<*) pasteurization, and (5) packaging.

Receiving and storage of raw materials is conducted by using
bulk carriers, pumps, and refrigerated tanks,  clarification
is the removal of suspended matter by centrifugation.
Separation is the removal of cream by centrifugation.
Pasteurization is accomplished by passing the material
through a unit where it is first rapidly heated and cooled
by contact with heated and cooled plates or tubes.
Packaging involves the final handling of the finished
product prior to storage.

In  1970, a total of 51 billion kilograms of milk was
processed.  Of this total, 36.5 billion kilograms of final
products were produced.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Materials are lost through
direct processing of raw materials into finished products
and from ancillary operations.  The former group consists of
milk, milk products, and non-dairy ingredients  (sugar,
fruits, nuts, etc.), while the latter consists of cleaners
and sanitizers used in cleaning equipment and lubricants
used in certain handling equipment.  All of these contribute
to the release of organic materials, which exert a high BOD,
and suspended solids to the process water.  Phosphorous,
nitrogen, chlorides, heat, and dairy fat can also be found.

The major waste sources in the dairy products processing
industry come from the following:  (1) washing and cleaning
out of product remaining in tanks and piping performed
                           3-90

-------
routinely after every processing cycle,  (2) spillage
produced by leaks, overflow, freezing-on, boiling-over and
careless handling, (3) processing losses,  (i») wastage of
spoiled products, returned products, or by-products such as
whey, and (5)  detergents used in the washing and sanitizing
solutions.

The primary waste materials that are discharged to the waste
streams in practically all dairy plants include:  <1) milk
and milk products received as raw materials, (2) milk
products handled in the process and end-products
manufacture,  (3) lubricants (primarily soap and silicone
based) used in certain handling equipment, and  (W) sanitary
and domestic sewage from toilets, washrooms, and kitchens.
Other products, such as non-dairy ingredients (sugar,
fruits, flavors, and fruit juices) and milk by-products
(whey, buttermilk) are potential waste contributors.

The basic parameters used in establishing effluent
guidelines are: BOD^, suspended solids, and pH.  It is
recommended that the pH of any final discharge be within a
range of 6.0-9.0.

Control Technology and Costs.  Dairy wastes are usually
subjectable to biological breakdown.  The standard practice
to reduce oxygen-demanding materials in the wastewater has
been to use secondary or biological treatment consisting of:
activated sludge, trickling filters, aerated lagoons,
stabilization ponds or land disposal.  Tertiary treatment
(sand filtration, carbon adsorption) is practically nil at
the present time.

BPT and BAT consists essentially of the same practices.  In-
plant control includes improvement of plant maintenance,
waste monitoring equipment and quality control improvements.
End-of-pipe control includes biological treatment (activated
sludge, trickling filters or aerated lagoons) followed by
sand filtration.  BAT, in addition to BPT, includes multi-
media filtration.
                           3-91

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (G&P)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $54.3
  Incremental BPT OGM           $10.6

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  The principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the new data are substantially
different estimates "capital-in-place" for particular
segments of the industry and projected growth patterns
within the industry.
  Gianessi* L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
   (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-92

-------
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FRUITS AND VEGETABLES INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The fruits and
vegetables processing industry includes processors of canned
fruits and vegetables, preserves, jams, jellies, dried and
dehydrated fruits and vegetables, frozen fruits and
vegetables, fruit and vegetable juices, and specialty items.
The effluent limitations guidelines issued by the EPA are
limited to processors of apple products (except caustic
peeled and dehydrated\ products), citrus products (except
pectin and pharmaceutical products), and frozen and
dehydrated potato products.  The principal items in each
group are as follows:

  •  Apples: slices, sauce, and juice  (cider)

  •  Citrus: juice, segments, oil, dried peel, and molasses

  •  Potatoes: chips, frozen products, dehydrated products,
     canned hash, stew, and soup products.

The manufacturing processes employed, which depends upon the
particular product, include: harvesting, receiving, storage,
washing and sorting, peeling and coring, sorting, slicing,
segmenting or dicing, pressing or extraction  (for juice
products), cooking, finishing, blanching  (for potatoes),
juice concentration, dehydration, canning, freezing, can
rinsing and cooling, and cleanup.  Many processes previously
performed by hand, such as peeling and coring, have been
automated.  Peeling, for example, may be performed
mechanically or caustically, a process in which the fruit or
vegetable is dipped in a hot lye solution to loosen and
soften the peel, which is then removed by brushes and water
spray.

The canning and freezing industry is characterized by a
large number of small, single-plant firms.  These firms
share a very small segment of the total market and have very
little influence on industry prices and total supply.  Over
the past 20 years, there has been a steady trend in the
industry to fewer large plants from many smaller operations.
The four largest firms in the canning, freezing, and
dehydrating industries account for approximately 20, 25, and
35 percent, respectively, of the total value of industry
shipments.  Although a large proportion of the plants are
relatively old, the industry has generally maintained modern
technology through renovation and equipment modernization.

It is likely that the trend toward fewer plants is also
expected to continue.  New large plants will probably


                           3-95

-------
continue to replace the production capacity of the small,
older plants that will close.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Water is used extensively in
all phases of the food processing industry; it is used as:

  •  A cleaning agent to remove dirt and foreign material

  •  A heat transfer medium for heating and cooling

  •  A solvent for removal of undesirable ingredients from
     the product

  •  A carrier for incorporation of additives into the
     product

  •  A method of transporting and handling the product.

Although the steps used in processing the various
commodities display a general similarity, there are
variations in the equipment used and in the amount and
character of the wastewaters produced.  For example, caustic
peeling produces a much higher pollution load than does
mechanical peeling.  Similarly, water transport adds a great
deal to a plant's wastewater flow compared to dry
transportation methods.

The pollutant parameters that have been designated by EPA as
of major significance for apple, citrus, and potato
processors are BOD, suspended solids, and pH.  Minor
pollutant parameters include COD, total dissolved solids,
ammonia and other nitrogen forms, phosphorus, fecal
coliforms, and temperature.

Control Technology and Costs.  Control technologies
applicable to wastewaters from the fruit and vegetable
processing industry consist of both in-plant (or in-process)
technologies and as conventional end-of-pipe waste treatment
technologies.  In-plant control methods include field
washing of crops, substitution of dry transport methods for
flumes, replacing conventional hot water and steam blanching
methods by fluidized bed, microwave, hot gas, or individual
quick blanching methods, using high pressure nozzles and
automatic shutoff valves on hoses, reuse of process waters
using counter-current flow systems, recirculation of cooling
waters, etc., and minimum use of water and detergents in
plant cleanup.

End-of-pipe treatment technologies used in the fruits and
vegetables processing industry generally include preliminary
screening, equalization, catch basins for grease removal.
                           3-96

-------
sedimentation and clarification, followed by a biological
treatment system such as activated sludge, trickling filter,
anaerobic lagoons or aerated lagoons.  Where necessary,
neutralization and chlorination are also included.  Other
technologies that are or may be used by the industry include
solids removal by air flotation or centrifugal separation,
chemical coagulation and precipitation, biological treatment
through the use of a rotating biological contactor, sand or
diatomaceous earth filtration, and other advanced treatment
technologies.  The liquid portion of cannery wastes can be
"completely" treated and discharged through percolation and
evaporation lagoons or by spray irrigation.

Because the wastes from fruit and vegetable processing
plants are primarily biological, they are compatible with
municipal sewage treatment systems, therefore, discharge
into municipal systems is also a practicable alternative for
fruit and vegetable processors.

BPT guidelines are based upon the average performances of
exemplary biological treatment systems.  Thus, the
technology called for includes preliminary screening,
primary settling (potatoes only), and biological secondary
treatment.  Cooling towers for the recirculation of weak
cooling water is considered BPT for the citrus industry.
In-plant control methods should include good housekeeping
and water use practices.  No special in-plant modifications
are required.  Land treatment methods such as spray
irrigation are of course, not excluded from use.

BAT and NSPS guidelines assume the use of BPT, plus
additional secondary treatment, such as more aerated lagoons
and/or shallow lagoons and/or a sand filter following
secondary treatment; disinfection  (usually chlorination) is
also included.  Management controls over housekeeping and
water use practices are assumed to be stricter than BPT.
Although no additional in-plant controls are required,
several modifications may be economically more attractive
than additional treatment facilities.  These include:
recycling raw material wash water, utilization of low water
useage peeling equipment, recirculation of cooling water,
and utilization of dry cleanup methods.  Where suitable land
is available, land treatment is not only recommended from
the discharge viewpoint, but will usually be more economical
than other treatment methods.
                           3-97

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)*.  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GBP estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $35.2
  Incremental BPT O&M           $ U.4

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are changes in
abatement strategy: G&P assume some plants use land
disposal, some use activated sludge and some use "no cost"
methods, whereas SEAS assumes all facilities currently
without controls will install activated sludge systems which
have costs two to six times higher.
» Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. .Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December,
  (Revised January, 1976)
1975.
                           3-98

-------
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GRAIN MILLING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  For purposes of
establishing water effluent guidelines, the grain milling
industry is divided into four major subcategories: wet corn
milling, dry corn milling, bulgur wheat flour milling, and
parboiled rice milling.  Two other subcategories, normal
wheat flour milling and normal rice milling, have been
excluded because they do not use process water.

Wet corn milling comprises three basic process operations:
milling, starch production, and syrup manufacturing.  The
finished products of starch and corn sweeteners are used for
paper products, food products, textile manufacturing,
building materials, laundries, home uses, and miscellaneous
operations.

Dry corn milling process separates the various fractions of
corn, namely the endosperm, brain, and germ.  These
fractions are later ground and sifted after separation.  The
final products include: corn meal, grits, flour, oil, and
animal feed.

Bulgur wheat flour milling produces parboiled, dried, and
partially debranned wheat for use in either cracked or whole
grain form.  Bulgur is produced primarily for the Federal
Government as part of a national effort to utilize surplus
wheat for domestic use and for distribution to
underdeveloped countries.

Parboiled rice milling utilizes rice that is carefully
cleaned, parboiled by soaking in water, and then cooked to
gelatinize the starch.  After cooking, the water is drained
and the parboiled rice is dried before milling.  The bran
and germ are later separated from the milled rice.  The
final product has superior cooking qualities because
vitamins from the bran are forced into the endosperm.

The use of dry corn milling products in direct food has
declined significantly over the past 20 years but this
decline has been offset by the growing use of the products
as ingredients in processed foods.  Consumption of bulgur
wheat flour milling products has been increasing in
developing nations due to the high nutritional values of
bulgur wheat.  Rice milling including parboiled products are
60 percent exported and 10 percent used for domestic trade.

Haste sources and Pollutants.  Principal wastewater sources
in wet corn milling are modified starch washing, condensate
from steepwater evaporation, mud separation, syrup
evaporation, animal feeds, and corn steeping.  Dry corn


                           3-101

-------
milling process wastes originate from infrequent washing of
corn.  Bulgur wheat flour milling process wastewater stems
from steaming and cooking of bulgurr although these
quantities are relatively small.  Parboiled rice milling
process wastewater stems from steeping or cooking
operations, and at least one plant uses wet scrubbers for
dust control, which generates an additional source of
wastewater.

The basic parameters used to define wastewater
characteristics are BOD^, suspended solids and pH.  About
one-fourth of the wet corn milling plants discharge directly
into surface water.  The majority of the plants in the other
subcategories discharge into municipal systems.

Control Technology and Costs.  Except for wet corn milling,
little attention has been focused on either in-plant control
or treatment of the wastewaters.  In many instances, the
treatment technologies developed for wet corn milling can be
transferred to the other industry subcategories.  Current
in-plant control consists of water recycling cooling systems
(barometric condensers), and some plants use biological
treatment  (activated sludge).

Best practicable technology for the four subcategories
consists of the following:

Phase I

  *  Wet corn milling.  Equalization and activated sludge
Dry corn milling.
sludge
                        Primary sedimentation and activated


     Bulgur wheat flour milling.  Activated sludge, and
  •  Parboiled rice milling.  Activated sludge.

Best available technology for the four subcategories is deep
bed filtration in addtion to BPT.  New source performance
technology is the same as BAT.

Since the wet corn milling industry contributes the largest
amount of wastewater discharges, control costs for this
industry are of primary concern.

The most recent analysis of costs for this section is that
of Gianessi and Peskin  (G5P).l This analysis was conducted
in somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to, the
general data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS
uniform cost calculation procedure, and is considered to be
                           3-102

-------
more precise.  However, time and resource constraints
prevented incorporating these costs into the scenario
analyses using the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates
are as follows (in million 1975 dollars):

                              Phase I 6
                              Phase II   Phase I  Phase II

  Incremental BPT Investment    0.          0.       0.
  Incremental BPT O&M           0.          0.       0,

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Phase II costs are assumed to be zero for in-
house treatment by both studies.  All costs associated with
Phase II production are municipal treatment changes.  The
GSP study states that only negligible costs will be incurred
by Phase I production, since only one of the plants not
using municipal systems to discharge wastes has not fully
installed the necessary equipment.  SEAS lists five plants
requiring equipment, with 
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MEAT  PROCESSING  INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics  and Capacities.  According  to  the
Department of Agriculture,  there  were  5,991 meat
slaughtering plants  in  the  United States  on March 1,  1973.
Commercial slaughter of beef,  hogs,  calves, sheep,  and lambs
totaled  26.9 million metric tons  in  1972  according  to the
USDA.  Of these  plants, 84  were large  plants [over  90,800
metric tons annual live weight killed  (LWK) ],  309 medium
plants  (11,3*0-90,247 metric tons annual  LWK),  and  the rest
were  small.  Of  the  small plants. North star Research
Institute estimated  5,200 to be "locker"  plants (very small
meat  packing plants  that slaughter animals  and may  produce
processed meat products which are usually stored  in frozen
form).   The other 400 plants are  assumed  to be plants
between  1*53.5-11,340 metric tons  annual LWK.

A total  of 90 percent of the industry's production  is
accounted for by 15  percent of the plants.   Although  the
total number of  plants  in North Star's slaughterhouse and
packinghouse categories is  only 793  (15 percent of  5,993 is
899), they assumed that these plants produce 90 percent  of
the output, and  locker  plants account  for the remaining  10
percent.

;The meat processing  industry comprises four subcategories:
simple slaughterhouse,  complex slaughterhouse,  low-
processing packinghouse, and high-processing packinghouse.
The plants in this industry range from those that carry  out
only  one operation,  such as slaughtering, to plants that
also  carry out commercial meat processing.

Simple slaughterhouses  have very  limited  byproduct
processing and usually  no more than  two other operations
such  as: rendering,  paunch  and viscera handling,  blood
processing, or hide  processing.  Complex  slaughterhouses
carry out extensive  byproduct processing  with at  least three
of the aforementioned operations. Low process packinghouses
process  only animals killed at the plant; normally  they
process  less than the total kill. High process
packinghouses process both  animals slaughtered at the site
and additional carcasses from outside  sources.

Income from meat slaughtering and meat processing plants in
1972  was $23.8 million. Factors  serving  to restrain
potential growth of  the American  meat  packing industry
include  higher meat  prices, removal  of import quotas, and
the availability of  synthetic  (soybean protein) substitutes.
The trend is for any new plants to be  larger and  more
specialized  (such as large  beef or pork slaughterhouses) and
                            3-108

-------
to be located closer to the animal supply  (movement from
urban to rural areas).

Waste Sources and Pollutants. Wastewaters from
slaughterhouses and packinghouses contain organic matter
including grease, suspended solids, and inorganic materials
such as phosphates, nitrates, and salt.  These materials
enter the waste stream as blood, meat and fatty tissue, meat
extracts, paunch contents, bedding, manure, hair, dirt,
curing and pickling solutions, preservatives, and caustic or
alkaline detergents.

Water is a raw material used in the meat processing industry
to cleanse products and to remove unwanted material.  The
primary operations where waste water originates are: animal
holding pens  (waste from water troughs, washdown, and liquid
wastes), slaughtering (killing, blood processing, viscera
handling and offal washing, and hide processing), and clean-
up.

The basic parameters used to define waste characteristics
are BOD5, suspended solids, grease, and ammonia  (NSPS and
BAT).  The total number of municipal dischargers is 70
percent of the number of plants.  The average wastewater
flows for simple slaughterhouse, complex slaughterhouse,
low-process packinghouse, high-process packinghouse are
1.17, 4.40, 3.22, and 4.55 million liters per day,
respectively.

Control Technology and Costs. Current end-of-pipe treatment
for direct dischargers assumes that all plants have in-plant
controls for primary treatment, and a second system
employing anaerobic and aerobic lagoons.  Dissolved air
flotation is used for primary treatment, either alone or
with screens; however, 30 percent of the plants use a catch
basin.  Since a small percentage of the industry has more
advanced secondary treatment systems (such as activated
sludge, trickling filters or spray irrigation) and a small
percentage of meat packers have no waste treatment beyond
primary treatment, it can be assumed that the typical plant
today is characterized by primary treatment plus anaerobic
and aerobic lagoons.

Best Practicable Technology consists of end-of-pipe
treatment represented by anaerobic plus aerated lagoon and
aerated lagoon with efficient solid liquid separation.
Disinfection by chlorination is also required.  Land
disposal, when available, may be an economical option.  End-
of-pipe treatment is assumed to be preceded by in-plant
controls: reduction of water use through shut-off valves,
extensive dry cleaning,  gravity catch basins, blood recovery


                           3-109

-------
and dry dumping of paunch waste.  NSPS are the same for 1977
with an additional requirement for control of ammonia.

In addition to BPT^ Best Available Technology suggests
chemical additions prior to dissolved air flotation,
nitrification denitrification  (or ammonia stripping), and
sand filtration following Secondary Treatment.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin (GSP)*.  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
  Incremental BPT
  Investment
  Incremental BPT O&M
                       Meats
                       Phase I
90.5
 7.2
        Meats
        Phase II
3.4
0.6
        Rendering  Poultry
1.8
21. 1
 3.4
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  The SEAS cost estimates for Meat Processing
include Phase I only.  For slaughterhouses and packing
houses, both studies assumed the same number of plants and
discharge levels to municipalities in the base data year,  f
major difference is that GSP includes estimates for Locker
Plants in the Phase I costs, which SEAS does not.  Locker
Plants amount to almost half of the GSP Phase I estimates.
The remaining differences are largely due to variances in
capital in place assumptions between the two stuides.

Poultry Processing estimates are within an acceptable range
of computational variance.
» Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-110

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                                                                                                                                                                   1

-------
SEAFOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are
approximately 1,800 seafood processors located in the United
States, including tuna processing plants located in Puerto
Rico and American Samoa.  The crab, shrimp, and catfish
processers have a large number of small producers.  Some of
these are associated with large national seafoods
processors, but there is no significant degree of
concentration in these industries.  In the crab processing
industry, there seems to be an increasing number of
multiplant firms and a growing importance of large plants.
The catfish processing industry is very small and
fragmented.  This study's count of 30 plants does not
include a number of very small "backyard" operations which
are thought to be scattered throughout the South.  In
general, these segments of the seafood processing industry
can be characterized as possessing many small,
underutilized, old plants that in some cases compete with
efficient, low-cost foreign producers.

On the other hand, the tuna industry is dominated by five
firms that operate 11 large-scale plants which account for
over 90 percent of the industry production; these firms are:
Bumble Bee, Del Monte, Starkist, Van Camp, and Westgate-
California.

In general, the volume of production is dependent upon the
amount of seafood harvested, both domestic and imported.
Recent analyses by the U.S. National Marine Fisheries
Service indicate that there is little potential available
for continuing to increase either harvests or imports of
crab, shrimp, or tuna.  Significant increases might come if
the limit of the U.S. territorial waters is extended to 200
miles, or if significant technological breakthroughs are
achieved in deep ocean fishing; but these conditions are not
anticipated.

Because catfish processors are currently plagued with very
low utilization of capacity, the same expectation of "no
growth" holds for this segment of the seafood processing
industry.

The effluent limitations guidelines issued for the seafood
processing industry by the EPA cover the processing of crab,
shrimp, tuna, and farmed catfish.  All methods of
preservation, fresh-pack, freezing, canning or curing, are
included.

Processing seafood involves variations of a common sequence
of operations: harvest, storage, receiving, preprocessing


                           3-115

-------
(washing, thawing, etc.), evisceration, precooking, picking
or cleaning, preservation, and packaging.  Many of the
operations, such as picking, shelling, and cleaning, have
been mechanized, but much of the industry still depends on
conventional hand operations.

For the purpose of .establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the seafood processing industry has been divided
into 14 subcategories.  These guidelines are based upon the
type of product, the degree of mechanization, and the
location or remoteness of the processing plant.  Remote
Alaskan plants have been placed in a separate subcategory
because their isolated locations render most wastewater
treatment alternatives infeasible because of the high cost
of overcoming engineering obstacles and the undependable
access to transportation during extended severe sea or
weather conditions.

Waste sources and Pollutants. Pollution sources in the
seafood processing industry include both the fishing boats
(mostly their discharged bilge water)  and the processing
plants themselves.  Water uses in the processing plants
include: washing the seafood, plants, and equipment; flumes
for in-plant transport of product and wastes; live holding
tanks; cooling and ice making; cooking; freezing; and
brining.

The solids and effluents from all fish and shellfish
operations consist of:

  •  Solid portions consisting of flesh, shell, bone,
     cartilage and viscera.

  •  Hot and cold water  (fresh or seawater)  solutions
     containing dissolved materials (proteins and breakdown
     products),
  •  Suspended solids consisting of bone, shell or flesh,

  •  Foreign material carried into the plant with the raw
     material.

The following pollutant parameters are controlled by the
effluent limitations guidelines for the seafood processing
industry: 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5J, total
suspended solids  (TSS), and oil and grease.  Pollutants of
peripheral or occasional importance that are not
specifically controlled by the guidelines include high
temperatures, phosphorus, coliforms, chloride, chemical
oxygen demand, settleable solids, and nitrogen.
                           3-116

-------
Control Technology and Costs. Control technologies
applicable to the seafood processing industry include both
in-plant changes and end-of-pipe treatment.  Basic in-plant
changes include:

  •  Minimizing the use of water by substituting dry
     handling for flumes, using spring-loaded hose nozzles,
     etc.

  •  Recovery of dissolved proteins by precipitation from
     effluent streams, enzymatic hydrolysis, brine-acid
     extraction, or through the conventional reduction
     process for converting whole fish or fish waste to fish
     meal.

  •  Recovery of solid portions for use as edible product or
     as byproducts by mechanical deboning and extruding, and
     by shellfish waste utilization.

Very few end-of-pipe waste treatment systems are currently
installed in the seafood processing industry.  However, the
essentially bio-degradable nature of the wastes allows for
the easy application of conventional treatment methods.
These include screening and sedimentation to remove
suspended solids; air flotation and skimming to remove heavy
concentrations of solids, greases, oils, and dissolved
organics; biological treatment systems, such as activated
sludge, rotating biological contactors, trickling filters,
ponds, and lagoons to remove organic wastes; and land
disposal methods where land is available.

In general, BPT guidelines call for in-plant "good
housekeeping" practices, but do not assume significant
equipment changes.  End-of-pipe technologies associated with
BPT are represented by simple screening and grease trap
methods, with dissolved air flotation for tuna plants and
grinders or comminutors, followed by discharge to deep water
for remote Alaskan processors where adequate flushing is
available.  BAT and NSPS guidelines place much more emphasis
on in-plant changes, including in-process modifications
which promote efficient water and wastewater management to
reduce water consumption, recycling some water streams, and
solids or byproduct recovery where practicable.  End-of-pipe
technologies associated with BAT and NSPS guidelines include
more extensive use of dissolved air flotation, plus the
addition of aerated lagoons and activated sludge treatment
for tuna processors in 1983,
                           3-117

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin (GBP) *.  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $39.5
  Incremental BPT O&M           $ 3.9

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the new data are different
estimates of "capital-in-place" and plant inventory
estimates  (SEAS calculates costs for 875 plants, but G&P
uses a baseline of 330 plants).
1 Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of, the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-118

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LEATHER TANNING & FINISHING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The leather
tanning and finishing industry is engaged in converting
animal skins into leather.  Cattlehides constitute
approximately 90 percent of the tanning done in the United
States, followed by sheepskins, lambskins, and pigskins.
Other types of skins or hides processed include goat, kid,
hairsheep, horse, and a variety of skins on a very limited
basis, such as deer, elk, moose, antelope, rabbit,
alligator, crocodile, seal, shark, and kangaroo.  Once
tanned and finished, the leather from these skins is shipped
by the industry to process manufacturers for the production
of shoes, coats, gloves, and other leather products.  Three
primary processes are involved in the production of finished
leather: beamhouse; tanhouse and/or retan, color and fat-
liquor; and finishing.

The beamhouse process consists of receiving hides that are
either cured, green-salted, or brined.  Trimming, washing
and soaking, fleshing (removal of fatty tissue), and
unhairing are the .steps that prepare hides for processing.

The tanhouse process involves placing the hides in solutions
of ammonium salts and enzymes in order to de-lime, reduce
swelling, peptize fibers, and remove protein degradation
products.  Prior to tanning, hides are pickled in a brine
and acid solution, and then tanned using either chrome or
vegetable tannins.  The tanned hide is later split to form a
grainside piece and a flesh side layer.  The retan, color
and fat-liquor process imparts different characteristics to
the finished leather.  Bleaching and coloring using acids
and dyes, along with applying oils to replace the lost
natural oils, allow the leather to be pliable.

The finishing process, or last step, includes drying, wet-in
coating, staking or tacking, and plating.  The wastes from
these processes may be disposed of in either wet or dry
form.

The industry may be divided into major subcategories based
on the primary processes employed; these subcategories are
presented in Table '4-9-1.
                           3-123

-------
                        Table 4-9-1.
           Leather Tanning Industry Subcategories
Subcategory

     1

     2

     3

     4
Beamhouse

Pulp Hair

Save Hair

Save Hair

Hair previously
removed

Hair previously
removed or re-
tained

Pulp or save
Hair
Tanning

Chrome

Chrome

Vegetable

Previously
tanned

Chrome
                                Chrome or
                                no tanning
Leather
Finishing

   Yes

   Yes

   Yes

   Yes


   Yes



   No
Source: EPA Development Document, March 1974.
The two processes used for unhairing are save hair and pulp
hair.  Save hair is a process that loosens hair by lime and
sharpeners (sodium hydrosulfite, etc.) ; the hair is later
removed from the hide by machines.  Pulp hair is similar to
save hair except that higher chemical concentrations are
used; the proteinaceous hair is solubilized sufficiently to
disperse it in the processing liquid.

There were 513 industry establishments operating in 1972;
estimations are that 176 tanneries use wet process
operations, and 225 to 260 plants are engaged in dry process
finishing operations on leather which was tanned at some
other location.  Some 10 to 90 firms are estimated to be
converters and miscellaneous small operators.  Approximately
80 percent of the plants in the industry fall in
Subcategory 1.

In 1972, a total of 36.5 million cattle (90 percent of the
total hides tanned) were slaughtered in the United states;
about 47 percent of these hides went to foreign tanners.
The number of tanneries has steadily decreased since the
turn of the century.  For example, in 1967, there were 474
companies operating 519 establishments in the leather
tanning and finishing industry  (including dry process
                           3-124

-------
tanners) as compared to 521 companies and 578 establishments
10 years earlier.

After reaching a peak volume in 1967 of 32.H million cattle
hide equivalents, volume has dropped sharply each year.  In
1972, volume had declined to 2t.O million cattle hide
equivalents or a decrease of 25 percent from the peak year.
Two major factors have contributed to this decline:

  •  Increased exporting of raw hides for tanning abroad.

  •  Increased competition from synthetic leathers, both in
     terms of physical product and price.

The records of the Tanner's Council of America indicate 33
plants  (representing a tanning capacity of 5.3 million
hides) ceased operations between 1968 and June of 1974.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The main sources contributing
to the total waste load come from the processes used in the
tanning and finishing of hides.  In order to define waste
characteristics, the following basic parameters were used to
develop guidelines for meeting BPT and BAT: BOD5, suspended
solids, total nitrogen, chromium, oil and grease (hexane
solubles), sulfide, and pH.

Currently, about 60 percent of industry waste is discharged
to municipal sewerage systems, while the remainder is
discharged directly to surface waters.  It is estimated that
60 percent of the wet-process tanners discharge to municipal
sewers.

Control Technology and Costs.  Waste treatment practices in
the leather tanning and finishing industry vary widely.
Some tanneries use no treatment or only simple screening.
Others have employed activated sludge, trickling filters,
spray irrigation, and lagoon systems.  In-plant waste
control procedures have included efforts by some tanneries
to conserve water and materials.  Although the potential for
materials conservation has not been fully realized,
recycling and recovery techniques have generally been
applied only in those areas where direct cost savings are
demonstrated.  BPT guidelines for plants discharging to
waterways call for a major removal of BOD5 and suspended
solids through the installation of preliminary treatment
(chromium removal, screening, equalization and primary
clarification) and secondary biological treatment  {activated
sludge, aerobic or anaerobic lagoons).  In addition to major
removals of BODf> and suspended solids, the BAT guideline
requires reductions in sulfide and nitrogen through use of
aeration and mixing with a carbon source to cause
                           3-125

-------
denitrification and filtration of the final effluent using
deep-bed, mixed-media filters to remove suspended solids.
New source performance standards are the same as BPT for
existing plants.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (G&P)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $79.2
  Incremental BPT O&M           $ 9.1

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are changes in plant
inventory estimates, different estimates of "capital-in-
place", different assumptions for industry growth, and
different engineering cost estimates for O&M in BPT and
pretreatment.  The pretreatment investment estimates are
very close for both studies; G&P lists 31.2 million dollars
and SEAS forecasts 30.2.
  Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                            3-126

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TEXTILES INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The U.S. textile
industry includes over 7,000 establishments engaged in the
processing of wool, cotton, and man-made fibers into
finished fabrics.  Man-made fibers, including rayon,
acetate, nylon, acrylic, polyester, polypropylene, and glass
fibers, are the most important raw materials, accounting for
over 60 percent of the raw materials consumed by the
industry in 1972.  Cotton accounted for about 36 percent,
and wool only 2 percent of the total raw materials used.

The natural fibers are supplied to the industry in staple
form, or short fibers.  Man-made fibers are supplied as
either staple or continuous filament.  In either case, the
fiber is spun into yarn, which is simply a number of
filaments twisted together.  The yarn is then woven or knit
into a fabric, which is then dyed and treated to impart such
characteristics as shrink resistance, crease resistance,
etc.  The finished fabric is then delivered to the
manufacturers of textile products, either directly or
through convertors, jobbers, and wholesalers.

In transforming fibers into the finished fabrics, two types
of processes are used: wet and dry.  The dry processes
include spinning, weaving, knitting, bonding, and
laminating; wet processes include scouring, desizing,
mercerizing, bleaching, dyeing, and finishing.

For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the textiles industry has been divided into the
following eight subcategories, based upon the raw material
used and the process employed:

     Wool scouring
     Wool finishing
     Dry processing
     Woven fabric finishing
     Knit fabric finishing
     Carpet mills
     stock and yarn dyeing and finishing
     Commission finishing.

wool Scouring is the process of washing the raw wool with
detergent or solvent to remove natural grease, soluble
salts, and dirt.  Wool finishing operations include
carbonizing (removing vegetable matter by treating the wool
with sulfuric acid at high temperatures), rinsing and
neutralization, fulling {chemical treatment followed by
washing and mechanical working to produce controlled


                           3-129

-------
shrinkage), dyeing and/or whitening or bleaching, and moth
proofing.

Dry processing mills include greige mills (any mill making
unfinished fabric) and producers of coated fabrics,
laminated fabrics, tire cord -fabrics, felts, carpet tufting,
and carpet backing.

Woven fabric finishing operations include desizing (acid or
enzyme treatment to remove chemicals applied prior to
weaving), scouring, bleaching, mercerizing (treatment with
sodium hydroxide followed by neutralization and washing to
increase dye affinity and add tensile strength),
carbonizing, fulling, dyeing, printing, resin treatment,
waterproofing, flame proofing, soil repellency,  and a number
of special finishes.

The main difference between woven and knit fabric finishing
is that the sizing/desizing and mercerizing operations are
not required for knits.  Stock and yarn dyeing and finishing
requires mercerizing but not sizing/desizing.  Carpets are
made from yarn through a dry operation called tufting, which
is followed by printing or dyeing, washing, and drying.  The
processing operations performed in commission finishing may
be any sequence of the operations discussed above.

In general, the industry is highly fragmented, with many
small plants and a few very large establishments.  In most
industry subcategories, the small plants account for over
half of the annual production.

Although the total industry production has grown at a rate
of approximately 3 percent per year, this growth has been
confined to the production of man-made fabrics and carpets.
The cotton and wool segments of the industry have declined
drastically over the years, resulting in a decline in the
number of establishments, which has been caused in part by
the switch to synthetic fibers and in part by an increase in
imported textiles.  U.S. imports of textile products and
clothing have risen from $1.5 billion in 1967 to Jft.O
billion in 197*; this trend is expected to continue through
1980.

Waste sources and Pollutants.  As described above, the
processing and finishing of textile fabrics involve a number
of wet processes that introduce a wide variety of animal and
vegetable wastes, dyes, bleaches, and other chemicals into
the waste streams.  For example, raw wool scouring produces
pollutants removed from the wool, such as oil and greasei
sulfur, phenolic, and other organic materials that are
separated from the sheep urine, feces, blood, etc.;
                           3-130

-------
insecticides; and dirt and grit.  In addition, the scouring
liquor is a significant pollution source in itself, along
with the chemicals used to recover oil and grease from the
liquor.  The scouring and rinsing of detergents, chemicals,
etc., from intermediate and final products are common to
most finishing operations.  About 80 percent of all the
water used in textile wet processing is used for removing
foreign material—either that carried on the raw material,
or that resulting from processing operation.  Another major
wastewater source in the textile industry is the dyeing
operation.  Exhausted dye baths are generally discharged to
the sewers, as are the scouring and rinsing waters used
before and after the dyeing operation.

In most of the wet processes, chemicals (generally in an
aqueous solution) are brought into contact with the fabrics
and are washed or rinsed away; the waste streams that are
generated contain a wide variety of pollutants.  The
principal source of effluent from dry processes is the
washing and cleaning of equipment.

For the purposes of establishing effluent guidelines for the
textile industry, the following wastewater parameters have
been defined to be of major polluting significance: total
suspended solids, COD, oil and grease, color, chromium,
sulfide, phenol, fecal coliform, and pH.  Minor pollution
parameters include total dissolved solids, nitrogen,
phosphates, temperature (heat), organic chemicals, and heavy
metals.

Control Technology and Costs.  The technology for control
and treatment of waterborne pollutants in the textile
industry can be divided into two broad categories: in-
process and end-of-pipe.  In-process control depends upon
two major conditions:

  •  Altering the processes that generate water pollutants,

  •  Controlling water use in non-process as well as process
     areas.

Specific in-process control practices that are applicable to
the textile industry include: effective water management and
conservation programs; control and containment of leaks and
spills; segregation of waste streams; use of "double laced"
box washers and counter-current flows to reduce the amount
of water used in washing and rinsing operations; use of
solvents instead of water as media in processing operations;
recycling some wastewater streams; and increased recovery
and reuse of processing chemicals.
                           3-131

-------
At present, the textile industry is primarily concerned with
end-of-pipe treatment of its wastewaters because most
textile wastes are amenable to treatment by biological
methods that include activated sludge, trickling filters,
anaerobic and aerobic lagoons, and rotating biological
contactors.  Advanced wastewater treatment methods also
applicable to the industry include:

  •  Phase Change Systems-distillation, freezing.

  •  Physical Separation Systems-filtration, reverse
     osmosis, ultrafiltration, electrodialysis.

  •  Sorption Systems-activated carbon, ion exchange,
     polymeric adsorption resins.

  •  Chemical Clarification-chemical coagulation.

The recommended technology for achieving BPT guidelines
relies primarily upon the use of biological treatment
systems.  Recommended technology includes preliminary
screening, primary settling (wool scouring only), latex
coagulation  (carpet mills and dry processing only), and
secondary biological treatment,  chlorination is also
included for dry processing mills.  Strict management
control over housekeeping and water use practices is also
assumed.  BAT guidelines are based upon the above, plus the
use of advanced treatment methods such as multi-media
filtration and chemical coagulation and clarification
following biological treatment.  Chlorination is included
for all subcategories.  NSPS are based on BPT plus the use
of multi-media filtration.

Many textile mills already have primary or secondary
treatment systems in operation, and they discharge their
wastewaters into municipal sewer systems.  Data from EPA and
from the American Textile Manufacturers Institute indicate
that about 35 percent of the water used is now discharged to
municipal sewers, 15 percent receives no treatment, 5
percent receives primary treatment, and 15 percent receives
secondary treatment.
                           3-132

-------
The most recent analysis of BPT costs for this sector is
that of Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1.  This analysis was
conducted in somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to
the general data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS
uniform cost calculation procedure, and is considered to be
more precise.  However, time and resource constraints
prevented incorporating these costs into the scenario
analyses using the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates
are as follows (in million 1975 dollars) :

  Incremental BPT Investment    $134.0
  Incremental BPT O&M           $ 1U.8

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associates with
these costs.  As can be noted, both estimates are within an
acceptable range of computational variance.  Some minor
differences, however, are attributable to different
techniques in estimating wasteloads per product unit.
1 Gianessi, L« P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution control Amendment of 1972,"
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-133

-------
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BUILDERS PAPER AND ROOFING
FELT INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  There were 81
mills in this industry group in 1972.  Although there is
some overlapping, they are generally divided based upon
their announced production as follows:
     Dry roofing felt
     Saturated/coated roofing felt
     Combination .of the above
17 mills
58 mills
 6 mills
Since mills frequently discontinue old products and
introduce new ones, this distribution can only be considered
as illustrative.

Builders paper and roofing felt mills are geographically
distributed over most of the United States; the majority are
located in or near metropolitan areas where the quantity of
waste paper required is readily available.  As a result of
their locations, the majority of the mills (50 - 75 percent)
are estimated to be discharging into municipal sewage
systems.

Mills in this industry produce building papers and felts as
their primary products using wood, waste paper,.and rags as
raw materials.  Although the processes are similar, mills
may use different equipment depending upon the raw materials
used.

The raw materials are prepared by cooking, beating, and
pulping in a blending chest to reduce them to individual
fibers.  The fibers are then formed on a paper machine and
dried by a steam-heated multidrum dryer.  Finishing coa^s
are then applied to protect the fibers; the coatings
generally consist of mineral fragments in a bitumen or
asphalt medium, depending upon each client's specifications.

Building paper products are usually a heavy paper used in
construction for support or backing.  Roofing felts are
usually in shingle or roll form, although sometimes the
paper fibers are woven with asbestos to make a roll roofing
product of exceptional strength that needs no protective
coating.

It is important to note that the percentage of waste paper
as a constituent in builders paper and roofing felts is
                           3-136

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expected to rise from 27.1 percent in 1969 to UO percent in
1985.

In 1971, a total of 1,«»69,000 metric tons were produced.
Less than 5 percent of total industry output went to foreign
markets and imports were also fairly insignificant; this
condition is due to the tight supply and demand balance at
home.  American producers have enjoyed a cost advantage
because of cheaper raw material sources.  However, this
advantage may be eliminated by 1980 because of the European
economic community tariffs.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The sources contributing to
the total waste load come from the following:

  •  The main water use is for cleanup of fiber buildup,
     fiberizing, and the design function of seal and cooling
     waters, agitators, and pumps.

  •  The next largest usage is for emergency make-up water
     and cooling water for the power boiler, heat exchange
     condensate, and the asphalt saturation process.

In order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
BPT, BAT, and NSPS:  BOD5, TSS, pH and settleable solids.

control Technology and Costs,  waste treatment practices in
the industry vary according to whether the control is
internal or external.   Internal waste treatment practices
include:

  •  Reuse of Whitewater

  •  Save all system

  •  Shower water reduction/reuse

  •  Gland water reduction/reuse

  •  Internal spill collection

  •  segregation of non-contact process water

  •  Low volume cooling spray shower nozzles.

External waste treatment practices currently employed in the
industry include:
                           3-137

-------
Basic Function

Screening

suspended solids
  removal
BODS removal
Temperature control
Alternative Technologies

Traveling, self-cleaning bar
   screen.
Mechanical clarifier, earthen
   basin, mixed (multi)-media
   filtration, coagulation.
Aerated stabilization basin,
   activated sludge storage
   oxidation ponds.
Cooling tower.
Source: EPA Development Document


BPT guidelines for plants discharging to waterways call for
a limitation of BOD5, TSS, settleable solids, and pH by
installation of the following treatment technologies:

Internal

  •  Water showers-self cleaning, low volume, high pressure.

  •  Segregation of white water systems; maximum reuse
     within stock preparation machine systems.

  •  Press water filtering, using vibrating or centrifugal
     screen.

  •  Collection systems for vacuum pump/water reduction.

  •  Control of asphalt spills.

External

  •  TSS reduction by earthen stilling basin, mechanical
     clarification, and sludge removal.

  •  BODI5 reduction using biological oxidation with nutrient
     addition by activated sludge aerated basins or storage
     oxidation ponds.

  •  Secondary solids removal by mechanical clarifiers,
     stilling ponds, or aquiescent zone in an aerated basin
     which is beyond the influence of the aeration
     equipment.

  •  Sludge disposal by land disposal or incineration.

  In addition to the above, BAT guidelines call for the
following:
                           3-138

-------
Internal

  •  Control of spills with a bypass to the retention basin
     for reuse, discharge into the treatment system or
     separate treatment.

  •  Intensive internal reuse of process waters.

  •  Separation of cooling waters from other wastewater
     streams with subsequent heat removal and reuse.

  •  Intensive reduction of gland water spillage.

External

  •  BOD5_ reduction by biological oxidation with nutrient
     addition.

  •  Suspended solids reduction by mixed media filtration
     with, if necessary, chemical addition and coagulation.
     New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)  are the same as
     BAT for existing plants.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P) . * This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to, the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The builders paper and roofing
felt industry G&P estimates are as follows (in million 1975
dollars):
                                             \
  Incremental BPT Investment       10.9
  Incremental BPT O&M               1.3

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected .pollutant discharges associated with
these costs,  of the 81 plants covered in both studies, G&P
assumes that 75 percent are dumping wastes to municipal
treatment systems, and seven percent have no treatment.
SEAS assumes that fifty percent dump to municipal systems,
with all of the remainder incurring associated BPT costs.
» Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-139

-------
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-------
PULP, PAPER AND PAPERBOARD INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The pulp, paper
and paperboard industry can be divided into five major
subcategories based on the processes involved.  The
subcategories are:

  •  Unbleached kraft
  •  Neutral sulfite semichemical (NSSC)  sodium base
  •  Unbleached kraft and NSSC cross recovery
  •  Paperboard from waste paper.

The majority of industry production is from unbleached kraft
and cross recovery processes.  A description of process and
product use by subcategories follows:

  Unbleached Kraft.  Pulp is produced without bleaching
using a "full cook" process with a high alkaline-sodium
hydroxide and sodium sulfide cooking liquor.  Unbleached
kraft products are used for linerboard, the smooth facing in
corrugated boxes, and grocery sacks.

  Sodium Base-Neutral Sulfite Semichemical  (NSSC).  Pulp
production occurs without bleaching, using a neutral sulfite
cooking liquor with a sodium base; mechanical fiberizing
follows the cooking stage.  The main product is the
corrugating medium or inner layer in the corrugated box
"sandwich."

  Ammonia Base-Neutral Sulfite Semichemical (NSSC).  Pulp is
produced without bleaching, using a neutral sulfite cooking
liquor with an ammonia base.  Products are similar to sodium
base NSSC*

  unbleached Kraft-Neutral Sulfite Semichemical  (cross
recovery) .  Unbleached kraft and sodium base NSSC processes
are in the same mill.  NSSC liquor is recovered within the
unbleached kraft recovery process.  The products are the
same as for the unbleached kraft and NSSC subcategories.

  Paperboard from Waste Paper.  Paperboard products are
produced from a variety of waste papers such as corrugated
boxes, box board or newspapers without doing the bleaching,
de-inking, or wood pulping operations.  Plants classified in
this subcategory must obatin at least 80 percent of their
fibrous materials from waste paper.

All of the processes are similar in their digestion of wood
chips with a chemical cooking liquor and the subsequent
removal of the spent liquor.  Process differences relate
                           3-1U2

-------
primarily to the preparation, use, and recovery of the
cooking liquor.  In the case of paperboard, no pulping is
involved.

Exports are primarily woodpulp and liner board.  American
producers have a cost advantage because of cheap raw
material sources; however, this advantage may be eliminated
by the European Economic Community tariff increases
scheduled for 1980.  (Europe comprises 13 percent of the
export market.)  Imports of pulp, paper, and paperboard
products are not significant.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The main sources contributing
to the total waste load come from the following processes:
wood preparation, pulping processes and the paper machine.

In order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were selected as guidelines for meeting BPT
and BAT: BOD5, TSS, pH, and color.

Control Technology and Costs.  Waste treatment practices in
the pulp, paper and paperboard industry include the
following methods.

  •  Reuse of gland, vacuum pump seal, knot removal shower,
     wash and condensate waters

  •  Internal spill collection: hot stock screening and
     chemical and dregs recovery

  *  Land disposal: save all systems

  •  Screening and neutralization

  •  Suspended solids removal by mechanical clarifier, earth
     basin, filtration and dissolved air flotation

  •  BOD5 removal by aerated stabilization basin, activated
     sludge and storage control

  •  Form control by chemical and mechnical means

  •  Color removal by lime treatment, activated carbon,
     coagulation-alum, and reverse osmosis

  •  Resin adsorption, ultra-filtration, amino treatment and
     ion flotation.

The technology called for in BPT, BAT and NSPS guidelines
are summarized as follows:
                           3-1H3

-------
Guideline
and Area
Subcategories
BPT Internal  Unbleached Kraft
              Sodium base-
              NSSC
              Ammonia base-
              NSSC
              Unbleached
              Kraft-NSSC
              Paperboard
Technology Called For

Hot stock screening, spill and
evaporator boil-out storage,
multi-stage counter current
washers

Non-polluting spent liquor dis-
posal by (a) partial evaporation/
incineration (b) fluidized bed
reactor

Non-polluting spent liquor dis-
posal by partial evaporation/
incineration

Hot stock screening, spin and
evaporator boil-out storage,
efficient pulp washing

TSS reduction by earthen basin,
mechanical clarification and
sludge removal, and dissolved
air flotation
BPT External  All Subcategories
                                TSS reduction by: earthen basin
                                mechanical clarification and
                                sludge removal, and dissolved
                                air flotation

                                BOD5 reduction by: activiated
                                sludge, aerated stabiliza-
                                tion basins, storage oxidation
                                ponds

                                Biological solids removal by:
                                mechanical clarifiers, stilling
                                ponds, stilling pond with an
                                aerated stabilization basin, or
                                quiescent zone in an aerated
                                stabilization basin beyond the
                                influence of aeration equipment

                                Sludge disposal by landfilling
                                or incineration

-------
Guideline
and Area      Subcategories     Technology Called For

BPT Paper     All Subcategories
  Machines

                                Water Showers

                                Segregation of white water

                                Press water filtering by
                                vibrating or centrifugal screen

                                Collection system for vacuum
                                pump seal water

                                Gland water reduction

BAT Internal  All Subcategories

                                Reuse of fresh water filter
                                backwash

                                control of spills-retention,
                                reuse or separate treatment

                                Reduction of pulp wash and
                                extraction water

                                Internal reuse of process
                                waters

                                Separate cooling, waters from
                                the other wastewater streams-
                                treat, removal, and reuse

                                Reduction of gland water
                                spillage
                           3-1U5

-------
BAT External  All Subcategories
                                BOD5_ reduction by: biological
                                oxidation with nutrient
                                addition.  TSS reduction by:
                                mixed media filtration and
                                chemical addition and coagulation
                                color reduction-minimum lime
                                treatment for cross recovery
                                mills and reverse osmosis for
                                NSSC both sodium and ammonia
                                base
Guideline
and Area

NSPS
              Subcategories     Technology Called For

              All Subcategories

                                Coagulation and filtration not
                                included for any Subcategories,
                                color reduction for both NSSC
                                bases are not included.  Same
                                as BAT, no real process changes
                                but changes to increase
                                efficiency.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P) ».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.   The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
  Incremental BPT Investment
  Incremental BPT O&M
                                Total

                              $2,045.1
                              $  189.8
                                         Phase I  Phase II
369.2
 49.3
1,675.9
  140.5
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
thses costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are estimates of the
distribution of costs between model plant sizes, as well as
basic costs associated with a particular model plant.
* Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
                           3-146

-------
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
                         3-147

-------
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PLYWOOD, HARDBOARD, AND WOOD
PRESERVING INDUSTRY

Production characteristics and Capacities. The plywood,
hardboard, and wood preserving segment of the timber
products processing industry is a large and complex
conglomerate.  For purposes of establishing effluent
limitations guidelines, and standards of performance, it has
been divided into eight subcategories as follows:  (1)
barking,  (2)  veneer,  (3) plywood, (4) hardboard - dry
process,  (5)  hardboard - wet process, (6) wood preserving,
(7) wood preserving - steam, and  (8) wood preserving -
boultonizing.

There were 916 operating plants in  1973 comprising the
plywood, hardboard, and wood preserving segments of the
timber industry.

Barking includes the operations that remove the bark from
logs, either through mechanical abrasion or by hydraulic
force.  Veneer includes converting  barked logs or heavy
timber into thinner sections of wood, which may be later cut
and conditioned to improve its quality.  Plywood includes
operations of laminating layers of  veneer to form finished
plywood, either softwood from veneers of coniferous or
needle bearing trees or hardwood from deciduous or broad-
leaf trees.  Hardboard includes the operations leading to
the production of panels from chips, sawdust, logs, or other
raw materials, using either the dry (air) or wet  (water)
matting processes for forming the board mat.  Wood
processing includes all pressure or non-pressure processes
employing water-borne salts (copper, chromium, or arsenic),
in which steaming or vapor drying is not the predominant
method of conditioning.  Wood preserving-steam includes
steam impingement on the wood being conditioned.  Wood
preserving-boultonizing uses a vacuum extraction of water as
the conditioning method.  Timber products are used primarily
for the building and construction industry, commercial uses,
and home and decorative purposes.

Waste Sources and Pollutants. Wastewater sources' are given
for the following segments:

  •  Barking.  Hydraulic barking contributes high suspended
     solids and BOD, as does drum barking.

  •  Plywood and veneer.  Log conditioning, cleaning of
     veneer dryers, washing of the  glue lines and glue
     tanks, and cooling water.
                           3-152

-------
  •  Hardboard.  Wastewater discharge is^low for dry
     processing but can occur due to washing.  Sources from
     wet processing include: raw materials handling, fiber
     and mat formation, and processing.

  •  Wood preserving.  Oils, simple sugars, cooling water,
     steam condensate, boiler blowdown.

The major pollutant parameters common to all subcategories,
but not necessarily present in process water from all the
categories for which effluent guidelines and standards are
presented, include the following: BOD5i, COD, phenols, oil
and grease, pH, high temperature, dissolved solids, total
suspended solids, phosphorus, and ammonia.

Wood preserving subcategories may also include the following
pollution contributors: copper, chromium, arsenic, zinc, and
flourides.  The above pollutants or pollutant parameters are
not always present in process water from all the
subcategories, and their presence depends on the processing
methods.

Presently, 20 to 30 percent of the veneer and plywood plants
are achieving the no discharge limitations.  About 25
percent of the hardboard manufacturers and from 5 to 10
percent of the wood preserving plants are also achieving the
no discharge limitations.

Control Technology and Costs. Current technology includes
the following:

  •  Barking.  Clarifiers.

  •  Veneer.  Reduce amount of wastewater by reuse and
     conservation.

  •  Plywood.  Minimal wastewater reduction in water use.

  •  Hardboard-Dry.  Oil and water separation, waste
     retention ponds or spray irrigation.

  •  Hardboard-Wet.  Water recycle, filtration,
     sedimentation, coagulation, evaporation, and biological
     oxidation such as lagoons, aerated lagoons, and
     activated sludge systems.

  •  Wood Preserving,  storage or discharge to sewers,
     evaporation and incineration, flocculation and
     sedimentation.

BPT includes the following:


                           3-153

-------
  •  Barking.  Primary screening and settling followed, by
     biological treatment.

  •  Veneer.  Substituting for direct steam conditioning of
     logs: hot water spray tunnels, indirect steaming, or
     modified steaming with the use of steam coils.
     Irrigation of solid waste.

  •  Plywood.  Use of steam to clean spreaders where
     applicable and the use of high pressure water for
     cleaning, use of glue applicators that spray water for
     glue makeup, and evaporation and spray application of
     glue water on bark going to the incinerator.

  •  Hardboard-Dry.  Recycle of log wash and chip wash water
     and disposal of the solids by landfill or use as boiler
     fuel, operation of the resin system as a closed system
     with wash water being recycled, and spray irrigation of
     solids.

  •  Hardboard-Wet.  Recycle of process water as dilution
     water, utilization of heat exchanges to reduce
     temperature and gravity settling, screening, filtration
     or floatation to reduce suspended solids, primary
     settling plus screening followed by aerated lagoons or
     activated sludge or both with pH adjustment, and
     disposal of sludge by aerobic digestion in sludge
     lagoons, recycle or as landfill.

  •  wood Preserving.  Recovery of contaminated water,
     modifications of existing non-pressure processing
     equipment, oil recovery equipment, and biological
     treatment.

BAT consists of the following;

  •  Barking.  Reduction in water use and recycle.

  •  Veneer.  Use of dry veneer dryer cleaning methods or
     proper land disposal.

  •  Plywood.  Elimination of discharge from gluing
     operation and dry housekeeping procedures.

  •  Hardboard-Dry.  Same as BPT.

  •  Hardboard-Wet.  Installation of a pre-press and
     evaporation system, primary treatment followed by
     biological treatment, and recycle.
                           3-15H

-------
  •  Wood Preserving.  Implementation of good housekeeping
     practices, and minimizing water use.

NSPS is the same as BPT for barking, and the same as BAT for
the remaining processes in the industry.

Annualized control costs are detailed in Table a-13-1.
                           3-155

-------
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-------
INORGANIC CHEMICALS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The complex and
heterogeneous inorganic chemicals industry.produces
thousands of chemicals.  Each of the chemicals covered by
the effluent guidelines is manufactured by one or more
processes, most of which are covered by the current
guidelines.  Because the various products and processes
differ considerably from one another, it is not possible to
describe them in detail.  Generally, they can be said to
involve the chemical reaction of raw materials, followed by
the separation, collection, and purification of the product.
Table ft-11-1 identifies each of the processes covered and
summarizes briefly the raw materials used and the nature of
each process.
                           3-158

-------
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Description






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Production capacity of some of the chemicals is concentrated
in the hands of a few producers; in the case of potassium
dichromate, there is only one.  The market for other
products is much more competitive; for example, there are
over 100 producers of lime.  The total production of the
inorganic chemicals covered by the Phase I effluent
limitations guidelines was about 139 million tons in 1971.
Of this total production, about 48 million tons or 3H
percent actually come within the control of the guidelines.
The remaining 66 percent is comprised of chemicals which are
either produced by processes not covered by the guidelines
or are produced in plants that are classified as other
industries, such as pulp mills and steel mills.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Water is used in inorganic
chemical manufacturing plants for three principal purposes:

  •  Cooling.  Non-contact cooling water.

  •  Process.  Contact cooling or heating water, contact
     wash water, transport water, product and dilution
     water.

  •  Auxiliary water.

The effluent limitations guidelines apply to process
wastewater pollutants only.  This includes those wastewater
constituents in water which directly contact the product,
byproduct, intermediate, raw material, or waste product.
Examples are waters used for barometric condensers, contact
steam drying, steam distillation, washing of products,
intermediates or raw materials; transporting reactants or
products in solution, suspension or slurry form; and water
which becomes an integral part of the product or is used to
form a more dilute product.

The following basic pollutant parameters are covered in the
effluent limitations guidelines for the inorganic chemicals
industry: total suspended solids  (TSS), cyanide, chromium,
chemical oxygen demand  (COD), iron, lead, mercury, total
organic carbon  (TOC), and pH.

Control Technology and Costs.  The manufacture of some of
the inorganic chemicals covered by the effluent limitations
guidelines produces no waterborne wastes.  In these cases,
the only control technology required is the isolation,
handling, and often reuse of water from leaks, spills, and
washdowns.  The most common wastewater treatment practices
in the remainder of the industry are neutralization, the
settling of suspended solids in ponds, storage, and
discharge of the neutralized and clarified effluent to
                           3-163

-------
surface waters.  Deep-well disposal is also used,
particularly for sodium chloride brine-mining waters.  When
more control is necessary because of the presence of harmful
wastes, more advanced technology, such as ion exchange and
chemical reduction and precipitation, is employed.  In-
process control measures commonly employed include
monitoring techniques, safety practices, good housekeeping,
containment provisions, and segregation practices.

Table  4-14-2 summarizes the control techniques associated
with BAT and BPT guidelines.  BPT assumes the normal use of
practiced in-process controls, such as recycling and
alternative use of water, and recovery and/or reuse of
!wastewater constituents.  BAT assumes the highest degree of
in-process controls that are available and are economically
achieveable.

New source performance standards  (NSPS) are the same as BPT
for all chemicals except chlorine  (chlor-alkalis), sodium
dichromate, and titanium dioxide.  For chlorine, metal
anodes may be used to eliminate lead discharges.  For both
chlorine and sodium dichromate, NSPS guidelines assume
decreased water discharges based upon improved water
processing designs in new plants.  NSPS for titanium dioxide
are the same as BAT.
                            3-16U

-------
                                Table 4-14-2.
                            Inorganic Chemicals
               Industry Summary of Control  Technologies
Chemical
Aluminum chloride
  (anhydrous)
Aluminum sulfate

Calcium carbide

Hydrochloric acid
  chlorine burning


Hydrofluoric acid


Sodium bicarbonate
Sodium chloride .
   (solar process)

Sodium si 1icate
Sulfuric acid
   (sulfur burning
   contact process)

Lime
Best Practicable  Technology (BPT)

No water scrubbers  for white or
   grey aluminum  chloride production,
For yellow aluminum chloride
   production,  gas  scrubbing and sale
   of scrubber  wastes as aluminum
   chloride solution, or
Gas scrubb.i-ng  followed by chemical
   treatment to precipitate aluminum
   hydroxide and.
Settling pond and  reuse

Dry Oust collection  system

Acid containment and isolation with
   centralized col 1 ect ion. acid
   wastes and reuse

Acid containment and isolation,
   and reuse

Evaporation and product  recovery.
   Or
Recycle to process

Good housekeeping  to prevent
   contamination of  waste salts

Storage of wastes  in an  evaporation
   pond, or
Ponding and clarification

Acid containment and isolation with
   recycle to process or sel'l as
   weak acid .

Dry Bag Collection Systems,
   or
Treatment of scrubber water by
   ponding and clarification  and
   recycle
Best Available Technology  (BAT)

Same as BPT
Same as

Same as BPT

Same as BPT



Same as BPT


Same as BPT



Same as BPT
Ponding or clarification and
   recycle of treated wastewater
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
                                      3-165

-------
                        Table  H-1Q-2.   (Continued)
                            Inorganic  Chemicals
               Industry  summary of  Control Technologies
Chemical

Nitric acid


Potassium (metal)

Potassium dichromate



Potassium sulfate
Calcium chloride
 : (brine extractiortj
Hydrogen peroxide
  (organic)
Sodium (metal)
Sodium chloride
  (solution mining)
Sodium sulfi te
Soda ash
  (sodium carbonate)
  Solvay Process
Best Practicable  Technology (BPT)

Acid containment  and  isolation
   and reuse

No process water  used in manufacture

Replacement of  barometric condensers
   with non-contact heat exchangers;
   recycle of process liquor
                            *,

Evaporation of  brine  waters with
   recovery of  magnesium chlorine.
   or
Reuse of. brine  solution  in process
   in place of  process water-

Settling pond or  clarification
Isolation and containment of
   process wastes;  oil  separation
   and clarification

Salting pond,
   and
Partial recycle of  brine waste
   solution after treatment

Containment and isolation of  spills,
   packaging wastes, scrubbers, etc;
   partial recycle  to brine cavity

Air oxidation of sodium sulfite
   wastes to sodium sulfate—94%
   effective, and final  filtration  to
   remove suspended solids

Sett ling ponds
Best Available Technology  (BAT)

Same as BPT


Same as BPT

Same as BPT



Same as BPT
Same as BPT plus replacement of
   barometric condensers  with
   non-contact heat exchangers
   and additional recycle

Chemical decomposition for  7
   peroxide removal and carbon
   adsorption for organic'removal

100% brine recycle and reuse or
   sale of spent sglfuric acid
Same as BPT plus replacement  of
   barometric condensers with
   non-contact heat exchangers

Same as BPT plus recovery of
   waste sodium sul.fate  '
Settling ponds and clarification
                                     3-166

-------
                           Table  ft-U-2.  (Continued)
                               Inorganic Chemicals
                  Industry Summary  of Control Technologies
Chemical

Hydrogen  peroxide
  (electrolytic)
Sodium dichromate and
  sodium sulfate
Chlor-alkaH
  (diaphragm eel 1)
Chlor-alkaH
  (mercury eel))
Best Practicable  Technology (BPT)

Ion exchange to convert  sodium
   ferrocyanide to  ammonium
   ferrocyanide which  is then reacted
   with hypochlorite solution to
   oxidize it to  cyanate solutionSf
   ancl
Settling pond1 Or  filtration to remove
   catalyst  and suspended solids

Isolation and containment of spills.
   leaks, and runoff,  and
Batchwise treatment to reduce
   hexavalent chromium to trivalent
   chromium  with  NaHS.  plus precipi-
   tation with lime or caustic; and
Settling pond with  controlled discharge

Asbestos and cell rebuild wastes are   Same as BPT plus:
Best Available Technology  (SAT)

Same as BPT plus segregation of
   wastewater from cooling water
   and evaporation of  the waste
   stream and recycle  of the
   disti1 late
Same as BPT plus evaporation of
   the settling pond  effluent with
   recycling of water and  land
   disposal or recovery of solid
   waste
   filtered or  settled  in ponds then
   land dumped,  and
Chlorinated organic  wastes are incin-
   erated or land dumped, and

Purification muds from  brine purifi-
   cation are turned to salt cavity or
   sent to evaporation  pond/settling
   ponds• and
Weak caustic-brine solution.-from the
   caustic filters is partially recycled
   Reuse or sell  waste  sulfuHc acid
   Catalytic treatment  of  the
      hypochlorite waste and reuse
      or recovery
   Recycle of all weak  brine
      solutions
   Conversion to  stable anodes
Cell  rebuilding wastes  are  filtered
   or placed in settling pond, then
   used for landfill, and
Chlorindated organic  wastes are
   incinerated or  placed  in containers
   and land dumped, and
Purification muds  from  brine purifi-
   cation are returned  to brine cavity
   or sent to evaporation/settling
   ponds, and
Partial recycle of brine waste streams.
   and
Same as BPT plus:
   Reuse or recovery of  waste
      sulfuric acid
   Catalytic treatment of  the
      hypochlorite waste and
      reuse or recovery
   Recycle of all  weak brine
      solutions
                                       3-167

-------
                          Table  1-14-2.  (Continued)
                              Inorganic Chemicals
                 Industry  summary  of Control  Technologies
Chemical

Chlor-alkal1
 ..(mercury  eel 1 )
  (continued)
Titanium dioxide
  (chloride process)
Titanium dioxide
  (sulfate process)
Best Practicable Technology (BPT1

Recovery  and  reuse of mercury  effluent
   by curbing,  insulation and
   collection of mercury containing
   streams, then treatment with sodium
   sulfide

Neutralization  with lime of caustic,
   and
Removal of suspended solids with
   settling ponds or clarifler-
   thickener, and
Recovery  of byproducts

Neutralization  with lime or caustic,
   and
Removal of suspended solids with
   settling ponds or clariMer-
   thickener, and
Recovery  of byproducts
Best Available Technology (BAT)
Same as BPT plus additional
   clarification and polishing
Same as BPT plus additional
   clarification and polishing
Source*  EPA  Development Document
                                        3-168

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Agency by Arthur D. Little, Inc. (ADL)».
This analysis was conducted in somewhat greater depth than,
and subsequent to the general data gathering efforts
associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation procedure,
and is considered to be more precise.  However, time and
resource constraints prevented incorporating these costs
into the scenario analyses using the SEAS model procedure.
The estimates are as follows, for comparable portions of
industry (in million 1975 dollars):

                                  ADL       SEAS

  Incremental BPT Investment    $210.6      180.3

SEAS and ADL give investment figures for only 11 chemicals
in common.   There is a substantial difference in segments of
the industry covered by the two studies.  The split between
BPT and BAT costs for treatment of chemical production
varies considerably for these chemicals associated with
these costs is extremely close in most instances.  As an
example, titanium dioxide (sulfate process) was investigated
by both studies with associated investment costs forecast as
follows (in millions 1975 dollars):

                       BPT         BAT

  ADL                  U.O        2.1
  SEAS                 15.6        0.4

For Phase II chemicals, there is not any consistency for
model plant costs of the two studies.
» "Economic Analysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines --
  Inorganic Chemicals, Alkaline and Chlorine Industries
  (Major Products)", Arthur D. Little, Inc., August, 1973.
  "Economic Analysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines
  for the Inorganic Chemicals Industries, Phase II",
  Arthur D. Little, inc., Sept., 197U.
                           3-169

-------
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-------
FERTILIZER CHEMICALS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities.  The fertilizer
industry can be divided into phosphate and nitrogen
fertilizer production areas, containing a total of 11
subcategories:

1. Phosphate Fertilizers
  •  Phosphate rock grinding
  •  Wet process phosphoric acid
  •  Phosphoric acid concentration
  •  Normal superphosphate  (NSP)
  •  Triple superphosphate  (ISP)
  •  Ammonium phosphates
  •  Sulfuric acid

2. Nitrogen Fertilizers
  •  Ammonia
  •  Urea
  •  Ammonium nitrate
  •  Nitric acid

These subcategories include both mixed and non-mixed
fertilizers.

The manufacture of these fertilizers involves a variety of
chemical processes.  Three of the processes - phosphate rock
grinding, phosphoric acid concentration, and phosphoric acid
clarification - do not require process waters.  The
remaining processes are summarized in Table 4-15-1.
                           3-174

-------
                       Table »-15-1.
      Basic Fertilizer chemicals Manufacturing Process
Product

Wet process
Phosphoric acid

Normal super-
phosphate

Triple super-
phosphate
Raw Material

Phosphate rock,
sulfuric acid, water.

Sulfuric acid, ground
phosphate rock, water.
                        Process

                        Mixing.
                        Mixing, curing
                        for 3-8 weeks.
Ammonium
phosphates

Sulfuric acid
Ammonia
Ground phosphate rock.  Run of pile
phosphoric acid, water. process=mixing
                        curing.
                           or

                        Granular triple
                        superphosphate
                        process  (GTSP) =
                        mixing into a slurry,
                        drying.

                        Similar to GTSP
                        above.

                        Acid buring process
                        SO2 % O2_ catalyzed
                        to form SO3_, water
                        added to form final
                        product.

                        Hydrogen production
                        followed by cataly-
                        sis with air to form
                        ammonia.
Ammonia, wet process,
phosphoric acid.

SO2, 02, pellitized
vanadium oxide cata-
lyst, water.
Natural gas or other
hydrogen source, air,
activated carbon,
catalysts.
                           3-175

-------
                 Table «l-15-1. (Continued)
      Basic Fertilizer Chemicals Manufacturing Process
Product
Urea
Raw Material

Ammonia, sulfur
dioxide.
Ammonium nitrate    Ammonia, nitric acid.
Nitric acid
Ammonia, air, water,
platinum-rhodium
gauze catalyst.
Process

Ammonium carbonate
formed then dehy-
drated by prilling
or crystallization
to form urea.

Combined in a
neutralized acid,
then prilled or
neutralized to con-
centrate the product.

Ammonia and air oxi-
dized, absorbed in
water, then cata-
lyzed.
Sulfuric acid and nitric acid are intermediate products in
the basic fertilizer chemicals industry.  Approximately 25
percent of the plants produce these chemicals as part of the
production of the final products listed above; they are not
considered as separate plants for the purposes of this
report.  Plants which produce sulfuric acid or nitric acid
as end products are covered under the inorganic chemicals
industry.

In terms of retail value, exports amounted to approximately
12.5 percent of domestic production, and imports 7 percent.
By weight, exports totaled a considerably higher proportion
of production, approximately 45 percent (171 million metric
tons).  Of this, phosphate rock comprised the largest
portion, 13.6 million metric tons.  With the exception of
ammonium nitrates, the United States is a net exporter of
all the fertilizers covered in this study.

Because fertilizers are traded in a world-wide market, and
the raw materials used are also used in a wide variety of
markets, the fertilizer market is subject to many outside
influences.  These influences include world-wide
agricultural demand, the use of nitrates in explosives, and
hence pressures from the international military situation,
and the world market for synthetic fibers.
                           3-176

-------

In 1972, the fertilizer industry was suffering from
overcapacity with no new plants being built.  However, in
1973, world demand increased so dramatically that
substantial shortages were created in the industry.

Projections published by the National Fertilizer Development
Center of the Tennessee Valley Authority indicate that the
shortages in supply of phosphate materials will be
alleviated as significant surpluses develop by 1976 or 1977.
The nitrogen shortage is expected to continue longer, with a
balanced market developing in the late 1970's.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The major fertilizer waste
components include the following: pH, phosphorous,
fluorides, total suspended solids (TSS), ammonia, total
dissolved solids (TDS), high temperature, cadmium, total
chromium, zinc, vanadium, arsenic, uranium. Radium 226, COD,
oil and grease, ammonia nitrogen, organic nitrogen, nitrate
nitrogen, iron, and nickel.

The main waste sources contributing to the total waste load
can be identified as coming from the following processes in
each production area:

Phosphate Fertilizers

  •  Water treatment plant effluent including raw water,
     filtrations, clarification, water softening, and water
     deionization.

  •  Closed-loop cooling tower blowdown.

  •  Boiler blowdown.

  *  Contaminated water (gypsum pond water).

  •  Make-up water.

  •  Spills and leaks.

  •  Nonpoint source discharges including surface waters
     from rain or snow that become contaminated.

Nitrogen Fertilizers

  •  Water treatment plant effluent including raw water
     filtration and clarification, water softening, and
     water deionization.

  •  Closed-loop cooling tower blowdown.
                           3-177

-------
  •  Boiler blowdown.

  •  Process condensate.

  •  Spills and leaks that are collected in pits or
     trenches.

  •  Nonpoint sources collected from rain or snow.

In order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
BPT and BAT: Phosphate Fertilizers: phosphorous, fluorides,
total suspended solids and pH.  Nitrogen Fertilizers:
ammonia, organic nitrogen, nitrate, and pH.

Control Technology and Costs.  Waste treatment practices in
the fertilizer industry include: monitoring units, retaining
areas, cutoff impoundments, reuse, recycle, atmospheric
evaporative cooling, double-lining, two-stage lime
neutralization, surrounding dikes and seepage collection
ditches, sulfuric acid, dilution with pond water,
evaporation, ammonia stripping  (steam and air), high
pressure air/steam stripping, urea hydrolysis,  nitrification
and denitrification, ion exchange, cation/aniou separation
unit, selective ion exchange for ammonia removal, oil
separation and ammonium nitrate condensate reuse.

BPT guidelines for the phosphate segment call for
limitations on pH, TSS, phosphates, and florides by
installing the following: double-lime treatment of gypsum
pond water, pond design to contain a 10-year storm,
monitoring system for sulfuric acid plant control, and
facilities for contaminated water isolation.  BPT guidelines
for the nitrogen segment can be met by installing the
following: ammonia steam stripping, urea hydrolysis, leak
and spill control, containment and reuse, plus oil
separation.

BAT guidelines call for increased limitations of the above
parameters by installation of pond water dilution of
sulfuric acid for the phosphate segment, and by installation
of one of the following for the nitrogen segment: ammonia
steam stripping followed by either high-flow ammonia air
stripping or biological nitrification-denitrification,
continuous ion exchange followed by denitrification, or
advanced urea hydrolysis followed by high-flow ammonia air
stripping.

NSPS standards call for the following process improvements
for the nitrogen segment  (phosphate segment is the same as
BAT):
                           3-178

-------
  •  Integration of ammonia process condensate steam
     stripping column into condensate boiler feed water
     systems of ammonia plant.

  •  Use of centrifugal rather than reciprocating
     compressors.

  •  Segregation of contaminated water collection systems so
     that common waste streams can be treated more
     efficiently and cheaply.

  •  Locate cooling towers upwind to minimize chance of
     absorbing ammonia in tower water.

  •  Design low velocity airflow prill tower for urea and
     ammonium nitrate to minimize dust loss.

  •  Design lower pressure steam levels in order to make
     process condensate and recovery easier and cheaper.

  •  Install air-cooled condensers and exchangers to
     minimize cooling water circulation and blowdown.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin (GSP)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $110.7
  Incremental BPT OSM           $ 54.9

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  The principal reason for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are increased unit
cost estimates for BPT in ammonia and phosphate fertilizer
plants in the GGP analysis.
1 Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The cost to Industries
  of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-179

-------
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ORGANIC CHEMICALS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities. Approximately 450
companies operating over 650 establishments are engaged in
producing organic chemicals; however, the four largest
producers account for a minimum of 36 percent, and the
hundred largest for more than 92 percent of the total
shipments.  Much of the industry's production is accounted
for not only by the large chemical companies, but also by
the major petroleum refineries.  At the other end of the
spectrum are many small companies operating small plants.
There are about 27 plants employing more than 1,000, and
about 220 plants with less than 10 employees.

The organic chemicals industry includes a vast number of
products and processes.  The effluent limitations guidelines
for Phases I and II of the industry cover only part of the
organic chemicals industry.  Primary petrochemical
processing, (i.e., chemicals produced at petroleum
refineries), plastics, fibers, agricultural chemicals,
pesticides, detergents, paints, and Pharmaceuticals are not
included.
Synthetic organic chemicals are derivative products of
naturally occurring raw materials  (petroleum, natural gas,
and coal) which have undergone at least one chemical
conversion.  The organic chemicals industry was initially
dependent upon coal as its sole source of raw materials.
However, during the last two decades it has moved so rapidly
from coal to petroleum-based feedstocks that the term
"petrochemicals" has come into common use.

The basic raw materials are usually obtained by physical
separation processes in petroleum refineries.  The raw
materials are then chemically-converted to a primary group
of reactive precursors; these precursors are then used in a
multitude of specific chemical conversions to produce both
intermediate and final products.

Processing of organic chemicals usually involves four
stages: feed preparation - the vaporization, heating,
compressing, and chemical or physical purification of raw
materials; reaction - the reaction of the raw materials,
usually in the presence of a catalyst; product separation -
the condensation, distillation, absorption, etc., to obtain
the desired product; product purification - distillation,
extraction, crystallization, etc., to remove impurities.
Processing methods may be carried out either in continuous
operations or in individual batches.  Facilities using the
                           3-182

-------
continuous processing method manufacture products at much
greater volumes and at lower unit costs than those using the
batch methods.

The effluent limitations guidelines promulgated to date by
EPA (for Phase I) apply only to those products of the
organics chemicals industry produced in continuous
processing operations.  These operations have been divided
into seven subcategories, based first upon the degree of
process water used, and second upon the raw waste loads
generated; Table 1-16-1 lists the seven subcategories and
the products and processes included.
                           3-183

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                       Table 4-16-1.
          Organic Chemicals Manufacturing Industry
               Products and Related Processes
Subcategory A

  Products

BTX Aromatics
BTX  Aromatics
Cyclohexane
Vinyl Chloride


Subcategory B


  B1 Products
Non Aqueous Processes

   Process Descriptions

      Hydrotreatment of pyrolysis gasoline
      Solvent extraction from reformate
      Hydrogenation of benzene
      Addition of hydrochloric acid to
         acetylene

Process with Process Water Con-
      tact as Steam Diluent or Absorbent

B1 Process Descriptions
Acetone
Butadiene
Ethyl benzene
Ethylene and Propylene
Ethylene dichloride
Ethylene oxide
FormaIdehyde
Methanol
Methyl amines
Vinyl acetate
Vinyl chlorine

  B2 Products

AcetaIdehyde
Acetylene
Butadiene
Butadiene
Styrene
      Dehydrogenation of isopropanol
      Co-product of ethylene
      Alkylation of benzene with ethylene
      Pyrolysis of naphtha or liquid
         petroleum gas
      Direct chlorination of ethylene
      Catalytic oxidation of ethylene
      Oxidation of methanol
      Steam reforming of natural gas
      Addition of ammonia to methane
      Synthesis of ethylene and acetic acid
      Cracking of ethylene dichloride
B2 Process Descriptions

      Dehydrogenation of ethanol
      Partial oxidation of methane
      Dehydrogenation of n-butane
      Oxidative-dehydrogenation of n-butane
      Dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene
                           3-184

-------
                  Table U-16-1.  (Continued)
          Organic Chemicals  Manufacturing Industry
                Products and  Related Processes
 Subcategory C        Aqueous Liquid Phase Reaction
                           Systems

  C1  Products        C1  Process Descriptions

 Acetic  acid                Oxidation of acetaldehyde
 Acrylic acid               Synthesis with carbon monoxide and
                              acetylene
 Coal  tar                  Distillation of coal tar
 Ethylene glycol           Hydrogenation of ethylene oxide
 Terephthalic acid         Catalytic oxidation of p-xylene
 Terephtahalic  acid        Purification of crude terephthalic
                              acid

  C2  Products        C2  Process Descriptions
                           Oxidation-, of ethylene with oxygen
 Caprblacfam               Oxidation ofcyclohexane
^Coaf^Tar:;'-;  ...;..,,,.•;','•',/.      Pitcft.'forming}'  _.
 6x6; Chemicals;:      •".      Carbohylaifeibn and condensation
 Phehoi and Acetone        Cumene  oxidation and cleavage

   C3 Products       C2 Process Descriptions

 Acetaldehyde              Oxidation of ethylene with air
 Aniline                   Nitration and hydrogenation of benzene
 Bisphenol  A               Condensation of phenol and acetone
 Dimethyl terephthalate    Esterification of terephthalic acid

   C4 Products       C4 Process Descriptions

 Acrylates                  Esterification of acrylic acid
 p-cresol                  Sulfunation of toluene
 Methyl methacrylate       Acetone cyanohydrin process
 Terephthalic acid         Nitric  acid process
 Tetraethyl lead           Addition of ethyl chloride to lead
                              amalgum


 Source: EPA Development Document, April 1973, pp. 28-29.
                            3-185

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Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Water is used in many
production processes as a reaction vehicle, and also as a
vehicle to separate or to purify the final products by
scrubbing, steam stripping, or absorption.  In addition, a
considerable amount of water is used for heating (steam) and
cooling, and for washing reaction and storage vessels, etc.

The effluent limitations guidelines for the organic
chemicals industry cover the following pollutants: BOD^,
COD, total suspended solids, phenols, and pH.  The
limitation placed upon pH in all cases in between 6.0 and
9.0.  It should be noted that process wastewaters subject to
limitations include all process waters exclusive of auxilary
sources, such as boiler and cooling water blowdown, water
treatment back wash, laboratories, and other similar
sources.

control Technology and Costs.  Technologies employed in the
organic chemicals industry for the control of wastewater
pollutants include in-process modifications, pollution
control equipment, and end-of-pipe wastewater treatment.
From a pollution-control standpoint, the most significant
change that can be made in process chemistry is from a "wet"
process to a "dry" process; that is, the substitution of
some other solvent for water in which to carry out the
reaction or to purify the product.  Other in-process
technologies observed or recommended for the organic
chemicals industry include the substitution of surface heat
exchangers for contact cooling water, substitution of vacuum
pump steam jet ejectors, recycle of scrubber water, and
regeneration of contact process steam from contaminated
condensate.

Biological treatment systems are the most common end-of-pipe
technologies used in the organic chemicals industry today.
These systems include activated sludge, trickling filters,
aerated lagoons, and anaerobic lagoons.  Other systems used
include stripping towers, deep-well disposal, physical
treatment, activated carbon, and incineration.  Where
phenols are present in wastewaters, they may be removed by
solvent extraction, carbon absorption, caustic
precipitation, or steam stripping; cyanide may be removed by
oxidation.  Five of 31 plants surveyed discharged their
effluent to a municipal treatment system; three had no
current treatment systems.
                                                /
In-process controls commensurate with BPT include
segregation of waste streams, the substitution of nonaqueous
media in which to carry out the reactions or to purify the
products, recycling or reuse of process water, and the
recovery of products and byproducts from the wastewaters by
                           3-186

-------
solvent extraction, absorption, or distillation.  End-of-
pipe treatment commensurate with BPT is based on the use of
biological systems as mentioned above.  These systems
include additional treatment operations such as
equalization, neutralization, primary clarification with oil
removal, nutrient addition, and effluent polishing steps,
such as coagulation, sedimentation, and filtration.  Phenol
removal is also required in some cases.

Technology commensurate with BAT includes the addition of
activated carbon to the BPT biological systems to achieve
substantial reductions of dissolved organic compounds.  In-
process controls applicable to BAT include:

  •  Substitution of non-contact heat exchangers for direct
     contact water cooling

  •  Use nonaqueous quench media

  •  Recycle process water

  •  Reuse process water as a make-up to evaporative cooling
     towers

  •  Use process water to produce low pressure steam by non-
     contact heat exchange

  •  Recover spent acids or caustic solution for reuse

  •  Recover and reuse spent catalysts

  •  Use nonaqueous solvents for extraction products.

End-of-pipe technology for NSPS is defined as biological
treatment with suspended solids removal via clarification,
sedimentation, sand, or dual-media filtration.  In addition,
exemplary in-process controls, as previously enumerated, are
also assumed to be applicable, particularly where biotoxic
pollutants must be controlled.
                           3-187

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (G&P)1.  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
 (in million 1975 dollars):
  Incremental BPT Investment
  Incremental BPT OBM
Total

$911.2
$ 75.5
Phase I

684.0
 55.1
Phase II

257.3
 20.5
Estimates form the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are industry
definition expansion, different estimates of "capital-in-
place", different model plant sizes, and different hydraulic
load data.
1 Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution control Amendment of 1972M,
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-188

-------
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PHOSPHATE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  Establishments
included in the phosphate manufacturing industry as defined
by the effluent limitations guidelines are manufacturers of
the following chemicals:

     Phosphorus
     Ferrophosphorus
     Phosphoric acid  (dry process)
     Phosphorus pentoxide
     Phosphorus pentasulfide
     Phosphorus trichloride
     Phosphorus oxychloride
     Sodium tripolyphosphate
     Calcium phosphates  (food grade)
     Calcium phosphates  (animal feed grade) .

This industry is almost entirely based on the production of
elemental phosphorus from mined phosphate rock.  Elemental
phosphorus and ferrophosphorus  (a byproduct)  are
manufactured by the reduction of phosphate rock by coke in
very large electric furnaces, using silica as a flux.
Because elemental phosphorus is relatively low in weight
compared to phosphate rock and to phosphoric acid, the
elemental phosphorus is produced near the mining site and
shipped to locations near the final markets for further
processing.

Over 87 percent of the elemental phosphorus is used to
manufacture high-grade phosphoric acid by the furnace or dry
process.  This process involves burning of liquid phosphorus
in air, the subsequent quenching and hydrolysis of the
phosphorus pentoxide vapor, and the collection of the
phosphoric acid mists.

The manufacture of the anhydrous phosphorus chemicals-
phosphorus pentoxide  (P2O5), phosphorus pentasulfide (P2S5),
and phosphorus trichloride  (PC1_3)  - is essentially the
direct union of phosphorus with the corresponding element.
Phosphorus oxychloride  (POC13) is manufactured from PC13_ and
air or from PC1J3, P2O5, and chlorine.

Sodium tripolyphosphate is manufactured in the
neutralization of phosphoric acid with caustic soda and soda
ash in mix tanks.  The resulting mixture of mono-and di-
sodium phosphates is dried and the crystals calcined to
produce the tripolyphosphate.
                           3-193

-------
 The  calcium  phosphates  are similarily made by the
 neutralization of  phosphoric acid with lime.   The amount and
 type of  lime used  and the amount of water needed in the
 process  determine  whether anhydrous monocalcium phosphate
 monohydrate,  dicalcium  phosphate dihydrater or tri calcium
 phosphate is the final  product.   Animal feed grade dicalcium
 phosphate is produced by the same process as the other
 calcium  phosphates except that,  because less purity in the
 final product is necessary, wet  process phosphoric acid is
 normally used and  the reaction may be conducted without
 excess water.

 For  the  most part, the  products  included in the phosphate
 manufacturing industry  are produced by divisions of large
 chemical or  petroleum companies.  The derivatives of
 phosphorus are generally manufactured by the same companies
 that produce elemental  phosphorus.  Furthermore, a large
 proportion of the  products are used internally by the
 producing company  for the production of other products and,
 hence, are not sold on  the open  market.

 The  biggest  factors determining  the future of the industry
 are  government regulation and technological innovation.  The
 declining production of phosphorus, for example, is the
 result of government bans on phosphate detergents.  In
 addition, the TVA  plant is expected to shut down in 1976, as
 a shift  to production of wet phosphoric acid is
 accomplished.

?,W«£^kSon£cg8./                       is primarily, used in
•••'tjn'e^^^                              .-'for eight principal'
       '*          '  '' wi    1;    c-.'         u
          non^coha'ct 'cooTing' . waier, 1; process-.' and product
                        -contact' cooling ;or .heating water-,
                                 water/; auxiliary- process
           'misdetl'ane'ous       " Very' large quantities of
non-contaict cabling water are used for cooling the electric
furnaces used in phosphorus production,  contact cooling
water is used to quench the slag from the phosphorous
furnaces.  Process or product water contacts and generally
becomes part of the product, such as the hydrolysis and
dilution water used in phosphoric acid manufacture and the
water used as a reaction medium in food-grade dicalcium
phosphate manufacture.  Because some of the materials in
this industry spontaneously ignite on contact with air, the
air is kept out of reaction vessels with a water seal, and
liquid phosphorus is protected by storage under a water
blanket; these seal waters are considered process waters.
Auxiliary process water includes those used in such
auxiliary operations as ion exchange regeneration, equipment
washing, and spill and leak washdown.
                           3-19*

-------
The following pollutant parameters have been designated for
the industry's process wastewaters: total suspended solids,
phosphate and elemental phosphorus, sulfates and sulfites,
fluoride, chloride, dissolved solids, arsenic, cadmium,
vanadium, radioactivity, temperature (heat), and pH.  The
primary parameters, i.e., those which need to be used to set
effluent standards, are total suspended nonfilterable
solids, total phosphorus, fluoride, arsenic, and pH.  The
remaining pollutants are either adequately treated when the
primary parameters are treated, or are present only in waste
streams for which a zero discharge standard has been set.

The effluent limitations guideline for most of the phosphate
manufacturing industry is discharge of process wastewater
pollutants to navigable waters.  Process water is defined as
any water that comes into direct contact with any raw
material, intermediate product, byproduct, or gas or liquid
that has accumulated such constituents.

The only exceptions to these standards are the BPT
guidelines for phosphorus and ferrophosphorus, phosphorus
trichloride, phosphorus oxychloride, and food-grade calcium
phosphates.

Control Technology and Costs.  Traditional sanitary
engineering practices that treat effluents containing
organic material in order to reduce biological oxygen demand
are inapplicable to the phosphate manufacturing industry
where such pollutant constituents are not significant.
Hence, control and treatment of wastes are of the chemical
and chemical engineering variety.  These include
neutralization, precipitation, ionic reactions, filtration,
centrifugation, ion exchange, demineralization, evaporation
and drying.  In-process abatement measures include
segregation of waste streams, recycling scrubber water, dry
dust collection, containment of leaks and spills, and
minimization of the quanitity of wash water.  Table 9-17-1,
lists the major treatment alternatives that have been
identified for manufacturers in the phosphate manufacturing
industry.  Many of the manufacturing establishments
currently have no treatment installed,  while others have
already achieved zero discharge.
                           3-195

-------
                            Table a-17-1,
               Phosphate  Manufacturing  Industry
               Effluent Treatment Alternatives
 Subcategory
 Chemical
Alternative
Description
 Phosphorus
 consuming
P4(Fe2P)
                             B
           Existing control complete recycle of phossy water.  Evaporation
           of some other process water.  Lime treatment and sedimentation
           of remaining process water prior to discharge.
           Piping, pumping, and controls for 100% recycle of process
           waste waters.
; Phosphorus
consuming
             PCI.
             POCL,
                A

                B

                A
                B

                A
                B
                C

                A
                B
                C
                D
                A
                B
                C
                D
           No treatment.  (Only wastewaters originate from teaks,  spills,
           etc.)
           Tighten housekeeping and maintenance. Dike and dam around
           pumps, valves, tanks, etc.  Provide sumps and sump pumps.
           Treat with lime and landfill the sludge.
           No treatment.
           Lime treatment, settling tank, recycle of tank overflow hack to
           process, and landfill sludge.
           No treatment.
           Recycle scrubber water.
           Lime treatment, settling tank, recycle tank overflow back to
           process, landfill sludge, + B.
           No treatment.
           Recycle scrubber water.
           Lime treatment, settling tank and landfill sludge, + B.
           Evaporation, + B + C.
           No treatment.
           Recycle scrubber water.
           Lime treatment, settling tank, and landfill sludge + B.
           Evaporation +  B + C.
 Phosphate
 producing
Na5P3°10
             CaHPO
                   4
             CaHPO
             Feed grade
                A
                B
            Dry dust collection already in existence at exemplary plant.  May
            be economically justified on the basis of product recovery.
            In-process controls for phosphate and lime dusts and for
            phosphoric acid mists,  Including dry dust collection and scrubber
            water recycle to process.
            Lime treatment, settling pond,  recycle of clarified water to acid
            scrubbers, and landfill sludge,  + A.
            Replace wet scrubbers with baghousea.
            Lime treatment, filtration of slurry, recycle of filtrate, and
            landfill of filter cake, + A.
Source: EPA Development Document, January 1974.

-------
The technology recommended to achieve zero discharge of
wastewaters in the phosphate manufacturing industry consists
of recycling atmospheric seal ("phossy") waters, scrubber
liquors, and other process waters following lime treatment
and sedimentation or alternative methods of reducing water
flow, such as the use of dilute caustic or lime slurry
instead of pure water in the process; use of dry dust
collectors, and the return of process waste streams and
blowdown streams to the process.

Zero discharge of arsenic-rich still residues from the
manufacture of phosphorus trichloride can be achieved
through treatment with trichloroethylene.

For those industry subcategories where some discharge is
allowed, the recommended treatment consists of waste-
reducing steps such as those above, but with some discharge
following lime treatment and sedimentation, sometimes with
flocculation.  Additional treatment to achieve zero
discharge for these subcategories consists of total
recycling of all process waters for phosphorous producer;
control of PC13 vapors by installation of refrigerated
condensers, minimization of wastewaters and treatment by
lime neutralization followed by evaporation to dryness for
manufacturers of phosphorus trichloride and phosphorus
oxychloride; and the addition of vacuum filtration of
treated wastewaters followed by total recycling for
producers of food-grade calcium phosphates.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (GSP).1 This analysis was conduced in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The phosphate G&P estimates are
as follows  (in million 1975 dollars):
  Incremental BPT Investment       68.6
  Incremental BPT OSM              15.5

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  The principal reason for the differences is
that G&P scaled the costs associated with each model plant
size because of industry and Department of Commerce comments
concerning the low level of the estimates.
                           3-197

-------
1  Gianessi, L. P. and H. M.  Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January,  1976)
                           3-198

-------
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PLASTICS AND SYNTHETICS INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities. The plastics and
synthetics industry comprises 17 product subcategories.
Current effluent limitations guidelines do not apply to four
product subcategories, epoxies, melamine, urea, and
phenolics, and the 13 remaining product subcategories are:
polyvinyl chloride, ABS/SAN, polystyrene, polyvinyl acetate,
low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene,
polypropylene, acrylic, polyester, nylon 6 and nylon 66,
cellophane, cellulose acetate, and rayon.

The main raw materials sources for the plastics and
synthetics industry are petroleum and natural gas.  in terms
of volume, the rayon, cellophane, and cellulose acetate
subcategories are the major producers.  The plastics and
synthetics industry is an intermediate type industry that
takes the processed raw material or monomer and converts it
into a resin or plastic material which is later converted
into a plastic item by another segment of the industry.

Over 50 percent of synthetic resins are used for one of the
following:

  •  Building and construction: paint, flooring, wall
     covering, siding, etc;

  •  Packaging: polyethylene films, rigid plastic containers
     and bottles, etc.; and

  •  Automotive: trim, steering wheels, grill, etc.

Manufacturing in the various subcategories involves a
variety of chemical polymeterization processes in which the
large synthetic molecules, or polymers, are formed.  In the
high pressure mass polymerization process, ethylene gas is
mixed with air or oxygenated organic compounds as catalysts
and with recycled ethylene.  This mixture is then raised to
a high temperature in a reciprocating compressor to produce
the desired polymer; in this case, low density polythylene.
Rayon, polyester, cellulose acetate and other fibers are
produced by adding a spinning process after the
polymerization is complete.

Exports amount to 6-8 percent of production and outstripped
imports, which only amounted to tt-5 percent of consumption.
Foreign competition is intense, but it has no significant
effect on potential domestic revenue.

Waste Sources and Pollutants. In order to set effluent
limitations guidelines, the dimension of wastewater
                           3-201

-------
characteristics was chosen as a basis for subcategorization.
The four major subcategories are defined as:

  •  Major Subcategory I: Low waste load {< 10 kg/kkg), low
     attainable BOD5 concentration (< 20 mg/1).  Products
     affected: polyvinyl chloride, polyvinyl acetate,
     polystyrene, polyethylene, and polypropylene.

  •  Major Subcategory II: High waste load  (> 10 kg/kkg),
     low attainable BODJ5 concentration  (< 20 mg/1) .
     Products affected:~ABS/SAN, cellophane, and rayon.

  •  Major Subcategory III: High waste load (> 10 kg/kkg),
     medium attainable BODjj concentration (30-75 mg/1).
     Products affected: polyesters, nylon 66, nylon 6, and
     cellulose acetates.

  •  Major Subcategory IV: High waste load  (> 10 kg/kkg),
     low treatability.  Product affected: acrylics.

The main sources contributing to the total waste load come
from spills, leaks, and accidents.  Other sources include:
washdown of process vessels, area housekeeping, utility
blowdown, and laboratory wastes.  Waste streams from cooling
towers, steam-generating facilities, and water treatment
facilities are generally combined with process wastewater
and then are sent to the treatment plant.

In order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
BPT, BAT, and NSPS: BOD5, COD, TSS, zinc, pH, phenolic
compounds, and total chromium.

Control Technology and Costs. Waste treatment methods in the
plastics and synthetics industry include the following:
biological treatment, single or double stage aeration,
adsorption, granular-activated carbon systems, chemical
precipitation, anaerobic process, air stripping, chemical
oxidation, foam separation, algae systems, incineration,
liquid extraction, ion exchange, reverse osmosis, freeze
thaw, evaporation, electrodialysis, and in-plant controls.

BPT guidelines for existing point sources are based on the
application of end-of-pipe technology, such as biological
treatment for BOD reduction by activated sludge, aerated
lagoons, trickling filters, aerobic-anaerobic lagoons, etc.,
with preliminary treatment typified by equalization,
dampening of shock loadings, settling, and clarification.
BPT also calls for chemical treatment for the removal of
suspended solids, oils, and other elements, as well as pH
control and subsequent treatment typified by clarification
                           3-202

-------
and polishing processes for additional BOD and suspended
solids removal, and dephenolizing units  for phenolic
compound removal when needed.  In-plant  technology and other
changes that may be helpful in meeting BPT include
segregation of contact process wastewater from non-contact
wastewaters, elimination of once-through barometric
condensers, control of leaks, and good housekeeping
practices.

BAT standards call for the segregation of contact process
waters from non-contact wastewater, maximum wastewater
recycle and reuse, elimination of once-through barometric
condensers, control of leaks, good housekeeping practices
and end-of-pipe technology, further removal of suspended
solids and other elements typified by media filtration,
chemical treatment, etc.  Also included  are further COD
removal as typified by the application of adsorptive  floes,
and incineration for the treatment of highly-concentrated,
small volume wastes, as well as additional biological
treatment for further BOD5_ removal when  needed.

NSPS are based on BPT and call for the maximum possible
reduction of process wastewater generation and the
application of media filtration and chemical treatment for
additional suspended solids, other element removal, and
additional biological treatment for further BOD5 removal as
needed.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is  that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (G&P)*.  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses  using
the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
 (in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental, BPT I nyestment    $,355.6
•'  Inciemental^BPT-OSM   '.-''•' ": $, 36.3
                            3-203

-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are basic industry
definition expansion, changes in plant inventory estimates,
different estimates of "capital-in-place", and varying
discharges to municipal treatment systems.
* Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December,
  (Revised January, 1976)
1975.
                           3-204

-------
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Plastics and Synthetics
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-------
PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The petroleum
refining industry comprises about 130 firms operating 217
refineries in 39 states.  Firms in the petroleum refining
industry can be classified according to size, range of
products, extent of integration, and the number and size of
refineries owned.  All refineries are necessarily multi-
product, and all perform the entire process of converting
crude oil into salable products.  As of 1974, the 17 largest
firms, operating 110 of the 217 refineries, accounted for 80
percent of the industry's capacity.

The petroleum refining industry produces hundreds of
distinguishably different products, which can be grouped
into four broad product classes: gasoline, intermediates,
residual, and oil and all others.  Gasoline accounts for
about 45 percent of industry output; intermediates comprise
about 33 percent, including military and commercial jet
fuel, kerosene, space heating oil, and diesel fuel; residual
oil amounts to about 8 percent of domestic petroleum
production; and other all products include asphalt,
lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas  (mostly propane),
naphthas and solvents, coke, petrochemicals, and
petrochemical feedstocks.  Crude oil is the most important
raw material used by the industry; natural gasoline, a
liquid product of the natural gas industry, furnishes about
5 percent of refinery intakes.  There are no other
significant raw materials.

Small refineries are designed to process low-sulfur crude
oil into the naturally occurring volumes of gasoline,
intermediates, and residual products.  Such refineries
require only a crude oil distillation unit, a catalytic
reformer with feed pretreater, two or three additional
distillation columns, and treating units.  Because asphalt,
one of the residual products, is costly to transport, a
large percentage of the nation*s asphalt is produced in
small refineries.  Over a third of the plants with
capacities below 10,000 barrels per day produce asphalt as a
principal product.

On the other hand, large refineries produce a full range of
fuel products plus lubricants, industrial solvents,
liquified petroleum gas, and a few common chemicals; these
refineries have more than a score of process units to
produce these diversified products.

Although a typical oil refinery is technically complex, the
process is conceptually simple.  Crude oils, which are
                           3-207


-------
liquid mixtures of many carbon-containing compounds, are
first separated into several groups of varying molecular
size known as cuts.  The chemical composition of some of
these cuts is then altered by changing the average molecular
size.  Some cuts are further processed to alter the shape or
structure of the molecules.  Most of the original cuts are
"treated" to make the impurities innocuous or to remove them
completely, particularly sulfur.  Treated cuts are then
blended to produce finished products, to which various
substances, known as additives, may be added to impart
certain desireable properties.

Refining operations may be divided into 12 general
categories or groups of refining operations:

     Storage and transportation
     Crude processes
     Coking processes
     Cracking and thermal processes
     Hydrocarbon processing
     Petrochemical operations
     Lube manufacturing processes
     Treating and finishing
     Asphalt production
     Auxiliary activities.

Refineries, which may incorporate some or all of these
operations, are classified according to the specific
operations included.  Based upon an analysis of refinery raw
waste loads, EPA has divided the industry into five
subcategories:

  Topping.  Topping plants are refineries whose processing
is largely confined to converting oil into raw products by
simple atmospheric distillation.  The topping subcategory
includes all refineries that combine all processes except
cracking and coking.

  Cracking.  The term cracking applies to a group of
processes in which heavy molecular weight or fractions are
broken down into lower weight fractions.  Refineries in this
subcategory are those that have topping and cracking
operations.

  Petrochemical.  Plants in this subcategory have topping,
cracking, and petrochemical operations.

  Lube.  This subcategory includes refineries with topping,
cracking, and lube oil manufacturing processes.
                           3-208

-------
  Integrated.  Integrated refineries are those with topping,
cracking, lube oil manufacturing processes, and
petrochemical operations.

Current industry capacity is approximately 1f» million
barrels per day.  Very few new refineries have been built in
the last 5 years, and industry growth has occurred primarily
through the expansion of existing facilities.  This
situation is caused in part by the difficulty in securing
approval for new refinery sites.  The intensity of the
energy shortage in 197U resulted in the largest absolute
capacity increase since 1967 and the largest percentage
increase in at least a decade.  This increase was 6.2
percent, compared with 2.3-1.3 percent for the preceding 3
years.

Waste Sources and Pollutants,  Wastewater pollutants are
generated in the various refining processes as high
temperature water, suspended solids, total organic carbon,
and salts separated from the crude oil.  Acids, caustics,
catalysts, and various solvents that are brought into
contact with the oil are collected, washed out, or allowed
to leak into the waste stream.  Pollutants also enter the
waste stream from washing tanks, equipment, catalysts, etc.;
from cooling water blowdown; and from leaks and spillage.
Additional flows and waste loads are created by storm water
runoff from the refineries' grounds and from the disposal of
ballast water.

The following parameters are covered under the effluent
limitations guidelines: BOD5>, total suspended solids, COD,
oil and grease, phenolic compounds, ammonia  (as N), sulfide,
total chromium, hexaualent chromium, and pH,

Each different process in the oil industry is a series of
unit operations that cause chemical and or physical
synthesis of the desired products.  Each unit operation may
have drastically different water usages associated with it;
this in turn implies that the types and quantities of
wastewater generated by each plant's total production mix
are unique.

Control Technology and Costs.  Wastewater treatment
processes currently used in the petroleum refining industry
include equalization and storm diversion; initial oil and
solids removal  (API separators or baffle plate separators);
further oil and solids removal  (clarifiers, dissolved air
flotation, or filters); carbonaceous waste removal
(activated sludge, 'aerated lagoons, oxidation ponds,
trickling filter, activated carbon, or combinations of
                           3-209

-------
these) ; and filters (sand or multi-media) following
biological treatment methods.

BPT guidelines are based upon both in-plant and end-of-pipe
control practices widely used within the industry.  These
include the above listed end-of-pipe technologies plus:

  •  Installation of sour water strippers to reduce the
     sulfide and ammonia concentrations entering the
     treatment plant.

  •  Elimination of once-through barometeric condenser water
     by using surface condensers or recycle systems with
     oily water cooling towers.

  •  Segregation of sewers, so that unpolluted storm runoff
     and once-through cooling waters are not treated
     normally with the process and other polluted waters.

  •  Elimination of polluted once-through cooling water by
     monitoring and repair of surface condensers or by use
     of wet and dry recycle systems.

  •  Granular media filtration or polishing ponds prior to
     discharge.

BAT guidelines call for further reductions of water flow in-
plant, and the addition of a physical-chemical treatment
step (activated carbon) in the end-of-pipe treatment system.
BAT in-plant technology is based on control practices now in
use by some plants in the industry and include:

  •  Use of air cooling equipment.

  •  Reusing: sour water stripper bottoms in crude desalter;
     once-through cooling water as make-up to the water
     treatment plant;  boiler condensate as boiler feedwater;
     overhead accumulator water in desalters; and heated
     water from the vacuum overhead condensers to heat the
     crude.

  •  Recycling: water from coking operations, waste acids
     from alkylation units; and overhead water in water
     washes.

  •  Use of wastewater treatment plant effluent as cooling
     water, scrubbing water, and influent to the water
     treatment plant.

  •  Use of closed compressor and pump cooling water system.
                           3-210

-------
  •  Use of rain water runoff as cooling tower make-up or
     water treatment plant feed.

NSPS are based upon the application of BPT practices to the
wastewater flows used as the basis for BAT.

The most recent anlysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Agency by Sobotka S Co., Inc., (SSC)1.  This
analysis was conducted in somewhat greater depth than, and
subsequent to the general data gathering efforts associated
with the SEAS uniform cost calculation procedure, and is
considered to be more precise.  However, time and resource
constraints prevented incorporating these costs into the
scenario analyses using the SEAS model procedure.  The SSC
estimates are as follows  (in million 1975 dollars):

                             BPT      BAT

  Incremental Investment   $1,610     $176
  Incremental OSM          $  180     $ 46

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are different
estimates of "capital-in-place11, differences in attribution
of OSM to federal laws, and differences in cost estimates
for sludge handling.  It is interesting to note that the
forecasts of investment expenditures over the period 1976-
1985 are in extremely close agreement for both studies, with
SSC forecasting 1,770 million dollars and SEAS listing
1,713.  S&C assumes elimination of the "once-through"
cooling water to be identified with BPT systems, whereas
SEAS placed this to be BAT treatment.  Of the total SSC
incremental investment figure for BPT, 13 percent is related
to end-of-pipe treatment processes or auxiliary and handling
equipment.  This figure represents an estimate 27 percent
higher than the SEAS corresponding projection.  Much of the
difference in these two figures can be attributed to
engineering assumptions about equipment necessary for
auxiliary and sludge handling, which accounts for over 15
percent of these costs.  SSC also estimates J379 million for
BPT related expenditures on in-piant measures.  SEAS
includes associated land costs, unlike SSC.  The methodology
for extrapolating costs differed markedly between the two
studies.  SSC made its primary distinction between large and
small plants (<10,000 barrels/day).  For large plants, data
was available such that cost calculations could be made for
121 refineries.  These were then extrapolated over the
entire category.  For small plants, 11 refineries, were
sampled, and the results similarly extrapolated.  SEAS
                           3-211

-------
calculations are based upon model plants in several
categories.  Three model plant sizes were assumed for
topping; three for catalytic cracking; three for
petrochemicals, BPT treatment; five for BAT treatment; lube
oils lists three model plant sizes for BPT, with six for
BAT; and integrated having three classes for BPT; five for
BAT.

Another important factor in the cost estimates is the
assumed growth pattern.  Although SSC and SEAS differ very
little in total growth for 1972-1983, the distribution of
the growth is graphically different.  SSC assumes that 61
percent of the growth occurs between 1973 and 1977
(3,195,000 barrels/day), while SEAS assumes only 23.3
percent of overall growth (1,179,800 barrels/day) to occur
during the initial five-year period.

S&C also calculates costs for "grass roots" refineries and
expansions on a different basis.  The expansions after 1977
must make substantially higher investments, so the total
expansions investment figure is somewhat weighted toward
this latter period.  The distribution of the growth in size
categories also differed markedly between the two studies
with S&C assuming expansion in the large plant sizes, with
SEAS making no distinctions between types of expansion and
spreads the expansion over the model plant sizes.
  "Economic impact of EPA*s Regulations on the Petroleum
  Refining Industry", Sobotka 6 Co., Inc., April, 1976.
                           3^21:2

-------
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-------
ROBBER PROCESSING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The Phase I
categories of the rubber processing industry covered by the
effluent limitations guidelines are the tire and inner tube
industry and the synthetic rubber industry.

The manufacture of tires and inner tubes employs completely
different processing techniques than does the production of
synthetic rubber.  The typical tire manufacturing process
includes the following:

  •  Preparation or compounding of the raw materials

  •  Transformation of these compounded materials into five
     tire components—tire bead coating, tire treads, tire
     sidewall, inner liner stock, and coated cord fabric

  •  Building, molding, and curing the final product.

The raw materials used include a variety of synthetic and
natural rubbers; three categories of compounding materials:
filler, extenders, and reinforcers (carbon black and oil are
two common examples); and other chemicals that are used as
antioxidants, pigments, or curing and accelerator agents.
Compounding is usually carried out in a batch-type, internal
mixing device called a Banbury mixer.  After mixing, the
compound is sheeted out in a roller mill, extruded into
sheets, or pelletized.  The sheeted material is tacky and
must be coated with a soapstone solution to prevent the
materials from sticking together during storage.  The
compounded rubber stock is transformed into one of the tire
components by molding, extruding, calendering, and a variety
of other operations.  The tire is built up as a cylinder on
a collapsible, round rotating drum by applying the inner
layer, then by adding layers of cord, beads, belt, and
tread.  Finally the "green" tire is molded and cured in an
automatic press, and the excess rubber is ground off.  Inner
tubes are produced using the same basic processing steps.

The synthetic rubber industry is responsible for the
production of vulcanizable elastomers by polymerization or
co-polymerization.  Table 1-20-1 identifies the various
synthetic rubbers, and lists their principal production
processes and end uses.
                           3-215

-------
                      Table  4-20-1.
              Rubber  Processing  Industry
          Synthetic  Production  statistics
                Families of Synthetic Rubbers Included in SIC 2822, Polymerization
                        Processes, and Annual U. S. Production (1972)
Principal Synthetic Rubber
Tire Rubbers
Styrene-Butadiene rubbers (SBR)
Polybutadiene rubbers (PBR)
Polylsoprene rubbers
Polyisobutylene-isoprene rubbers
(Butyl)
Ethylene-Propylene Co-polymer
rubbers (EPR)
Acrylonitrile-Butadlene rubbers
(Nitrile)1
Polychloroprene rubber
(Neoprene)l
Tire Rubber Sub-Total:
Specialty Rubbers
Butadiene rubbers
Eplchlorohydrln rubber
Acrylic rubbers
Polylsobutylene rubbers
Slllcone rubbers2
Polyurethane rubbers
Annual U.S.
Production
(1, 000 MT/yr)
1,678
139
368
139
163
169
169
159
177
2.992
64
9
2
4
10
14
Polymerization
Process
Emulsion
Solution
Solution
Solution
Solution
Solution
Solution
Emulsion
Emulsion

Emulsion
Solution
Emulsion
Solution
Condensation
Condensation
Principal End-use
General tire use
Tire treads
Tire treads
Tire treads
Inner tubes
General tire use,
non-tire goods
Hose, seals,
gaskets, O- rings
Non-tire use,
general tire use

Adhesives, dipped
goods, paints
Seals, gaskets
and O-rlngs
Seals, hosing,
tubing
Caulking,
adhesives,
plastics
Seals, gaskets,
electrical tape
Solid tires,
rollers, foams
fibers
Other Family
Members
•



EPDM

Neoprene,
nitile -chloroprene
rubber, styrene-
chloroprene
rubber

Pyridine-
butadiene rubber
Cyclo rubber
Acrylate type
rubber, Acrylate-
butadiene rubber

Adiprene, estane,
isocynate type
rubber
Although nitrite and neoprene-type rubbers are not normally termed tire rubbers, they are relatively
large production volume rubbers and, for convenience, can be Included with the major tire rubbers.
Sllicone, polyurethane and fluorocarbon derivative rubbers are considered part of the Plastics and
Synthetics Industry and are not covered by this document.

-------
                  Table  4-20-1.   (Continued)
                  Rubber  Processing Industry
              Synthetic  Production Statistics
Principal Synthetic Rubber
3
Chlorosulfonated Polyethylenes


4
Polysulfide rubbers

Specialty Rubber Sub-Total
Synthetic Rubber Total
Annual U.S.
Production
(l,OOOMT/yr)
15


10

129
3,121
Polymerization
Process
Post-polymeri-
zation chlorlna-
tion
Condensation



Principal End-use
Wire and cable,
shoes, linings,
paints
Sealing, glazing,
hose

-
Other Family
Members
Chlorinated
rubber,
Hypalon
Thiol



 Although nitrile and neoprene-type rubbers are not normally termed tire rubbers, they are relatively large
 production volume rubbers and, for convenience, .can be Included with the major tire rubbers.
2
 SUicone, polyurethane and fluorocarbon derivative rubbers are considered part of the Plastics and
 Synthetics  Industry and are not covered by this document.

 Chlorosulfonated and chlorinated polyethylenes should be considered part of the Plastics and Synthetics
 Industry.  They are not covered by this document.

 Polysulfide rubbers are produced by a condensation-type reaction which is not directly comparable to either
 emulsion or solution polymerization.  Per unit of rubber production, generated waste waters are of considerably
 poorer quality and more troublesome to treat than those of either emulsion or solution or solution processes.
 Polysulfide rubber production Is not covered by this document.  It is recommended that a separate study bo
 made of the polysulfide rubber Industry.

Source:  C. F. Ruebensaal,  The Rubber Industry Statistical  Report International Institute of Synthetic Rubber
        Producers,  Inc.

Reproduction from EPA  Development Document,  February  1074.

-------
For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the synthetic rubber industry has been divided
into three subcategories: emulsion crumb, solution crumb,
and latex.  Crumb rubbers, generally for tires, are sold in
a solid form, and are produced through two different
processes: emulsion polymerization and solution
polymerization.  Latex rubbers, generally for specialty
products, are sold in latex form, and are produced through
emulsion polymerization.

Emulsion  polymerization is the traditional and dominant
process for producing synthetic rubber.  The raw materials
(monomers) are usually styrene and butadiene, to which a
catalyst, activator, and modifier are added in a soap
solution to produce an emulsion in an aqueous medium;
polymerization proceeds step-wise through a train of
reactors.  The product rubber is formed in the emulsion
phase of the reaction mixture, which is a milky white
emulsion called latex.  Unreacted monomers are then
recovered from the latex by vacuum stripping; the production
process ends at this point for latex rubbers.  If crumb
rubber is desired, sulfuric acid and sodium chloride are
added to the latex to coagulate out the crumb rubber, which
is then dewatered, rinsed, filtered, and finally dried with
hot air to produce the final product.

The production of synthetic rubbers by solution
polymerization is a step processing operation very similar
to emulsion polymerization.  For solution polymerization,
the monomers must be extremely pure, and the solvent
(hexane, for example) must be completely anhydrous.  The
polymerization reaction is more rapid  (1 to 2 hours) and is
taken to over 90 percent conversion as compared to 60
percent conversion for emulsion polymerization.  Both
monomers and solvents are generally passed through drying
columns to remove all water.  After reaction, the mixture
leaves the reactor as a rubber cement; i.e. polymeric rubber
solids dissolved in solvent.  As with emulsion
polymerization, coagulation, dewatering, and drying
processes produce the final product.

Tire and tube products are produced in 56 plants in the
United States; about 70 percent of these plants are operated
by Firestone, General Tire, Goodrich, Goodyear, and
Uniroyal.  The remaining plants are operated by 11 other
companies.  Tire plants vary widely in capacity; the largest
produce approximately 30,000 tires per day, and the smallest
produces less than 5,000 per day.

Fourteen companies operating 28 plants produce the major
synthetic rubbers in the United States.  Most of these
                           3-218

-------
plants are part of diversified complexes that produce other
products, such as rubber processing chemicals, plastics, and
basic intermediate organic chemicals.


Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The primary water useage in
the tire and inner tube industry is for non-contact cooling
and heating.  Discharges from service utilities supplying
cooling water and steam are the major source of contaminants
in the final effluent.  However, these non-process related
discharges are not covered by the effluent limitations
guidelines of this report.  The process wastewaters consist
of mill area oily waters, soapstone slurry and latex dip
wastes, area washdown waters, emission scrubber waters, and
contaminated storm waters from raw material storage areas,
etc.  For the purposes of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines for manufacturers of tires and inner tubes, the
following pollutant parameters have been designated as
significant: suspended solids, oil and grease, and pH.
Pollutant parameters considered to be of less significance
are biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand,
dissolved solids, temperature (heat), and chromium.

The principal waste streams from synthetic rubber
manufacture are steam and condensate from the monomer
recovery stripping operation, overflow of coagulation
liquors, and overflow of the crumb rubber rinse waters.
Area washdown and equipment clean-out wastewaters are also
major sources of pollutants, particularly in latex rubber
plants where clean-up is more frequent because of smaller
production runs.  For manufacturers of synthetic rubbers,
the following pollutant parameters have been designated as
significant: chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen
demand, suspended solids, oil and grease, and pH.
Pollutants also present in measurable quantities in the
waste streams, but not designated as significant, include:
total dissolved solids, surfactants, color, and temperature
(heat).

Control Technology and Costs.  In the tire and inner tube
industry, the emphasis for present environmental control and
treatment technologies is placed on the control of air
quality and the reduction of pollutants in non-process
wastewaters.  As a result, no adequate overall control and
treatment technology is employed by plants within the
industry.  Primary emphasis is on removal of separable
solids from the non-process boiler blowdowns and water
treatment wastes, and from process washdown waters from the
soapstone area.  Because of substantial dilution of process
wastewater by non-process waters, treatment is much less
                           3-219

-------
effective than could be expected, especially for oil and
grease.

End-of-pipe treatment generally involves the treatment of
combined process and non-process wastewater in a primary
sedimentation basin or lagoon.

Of 17 plants surveyed, four used chemical coagulation to
further reduce solids levels.  Six plants had some form of
secondary treatment, either aerated lagoons, stabilization
ponds, or activated sludge treatment, and four discharged to
municipal systems.  Only one plant performed totally
adequate treatment of all process water streams by achieving
no discharge through the use of spray irrigation and
evaporation.  In-process controls commonly employed include
recirculation of soapstone solutions, elimination of drains
in dirty areas, and the use of oil sumps or separators.

The technology recommended to meet the effluent limitations
guidelines are:

  1. Elimination of any discharge of soapstone solution by:

     •  Recycling

     *  Installation of curbing and the sealing of drains in
        the soapstone dipping area

     •  Reuse the recirculating system vrashwater as make-up
        for fresh soapstone solution.

  2. Elimination of any discharge of latex solution by:

     •  Installation of curbing and the sealing of drains in
        the latex dipping area

     •  Containment of all wastewaters in the area and
        disposal by landfill.

  3. Segregation, control, and treatment of all oily waste
     streams.

  4. Isolation of process waters from non-process
     wastewaters.

  5. Treatment of process wastewaters with API-type gravity
     separators to remove separable oil and solids.

  6. Additional treatment through an absorbent filter for
     further oil removal.
                           3-220

-------
Existing control and treatment technology practiced by the
synthetic rubber industry emphasized end-of-pipe treatment
rather than in-plant reduction because in-plant
modifications could affect processing techniques or the
quality of the final product.

Current treatment technology for both emulsion crumb and
latex plants involves primary clarification with chemical
coagulation of latex solids, followed by biological
treatment.  As an alternative to chemical coagulation, air
flotation clarification of primary and secondary solids is
also practiced.  Biological treatment systems include
activated sludge, aerated lagoons, and stabilization ponds.

The control and treatment technology recommended to meet BPT
and NSPS guidelines for emulsion crumb and latex plants is
chemical coagulation and biological treatment, improved
houskeeping and maintenance practices, as well as in-plant
modifications, particularly the use of crumb pits to remove
crumb rubber fines from coagulation liquor and crumb rinse
overflows.  BAT has been defined as BPT plus the equivalent
of dual-media filtration followed by activated carbon
treatment of the effluent from the biological treatment
systems.  Because solution crumb wastewaters do not contain
uncoagulated latex solids, the chemical coagulation step is
not necessary.  BPT and NSPS technology for solution, crumb
plants have been defined as comparable to primary
clarification and biological treatment, with the use of
crumb pits to catch crumb rubber fines before treatment.
BAT for solution crumb plants is the same as that for
emulsion crumb plants.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (GGP)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $86.3
  Incremental BPT OSM           $ 8.1
                           3-221

-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are that G5P
includes the industry subcategories in Phase II of the EPA
Effluent Guidelines.
* Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution control Amendment of 1972°,
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-222


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FERROALLOY INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  There were 44
plants in the United States in 1972 which produced
ferroalloy manganese, chromium, and other additive metals.

The smelting and slag processing segments of the ferroalloy
manufacturing industry are subdivided into three
subcategories as follows: Subcategory I: open electric
furnaces with wet air pollution control devices, Subcategory
II: covered electric furnaces and other smelting operations
with wet air pollution control devices, and Subcategory III:
slag processing.  In the first two subcategories, the main
source of wastewater results from the air pollution
scrubbers.  In the third category, water is used only as a
transport or cooling medium.

Submerged-arc electric furnaces operate continously as power
is applied to the electrodes and they are supplied with
materials that consist mostly of reducing material (coal or
coke), iron and steel borings and turnings and ores that may
be charged to the furnace on either a continuous or an
intermittent basis.  Due to the large volume of gases
emitted, water-cooled covers collect the gases and reduce
the amount of heat generated by the furnaces.
                   •i
The four most important ferroalloys are: ferromanganese,
ferrosilicon, ferrochromium, and silicomanganese.
Ferroalloys are used to produce steels of greater strength
and corrosion resistance, and in the deoxidation, alloying,
and graphitization processing of steel and cast iron.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The major wastewater source
in the ferroalloy manufacturing industry results from the
use of wet scrubbers (venturi-type) for air pollution
control.  Approximately one-third of the furnaces in the
industry use such devices.  The cooling of ferroalloy
furnaces also required large quantities of water.  Other
sources of wastewater stem from boiler feed, air
conditioning, and sanitary uses.  Wastewaters result from
slag processing operations in which slag is crushed and
sized for recovery of metal values, or from slag shotting
operations in which the slag is granulated for further use.

The primary wastewater effluents resulting from wet methods
for air pollution control are: suspended insoluble metal
compounds, soluble metal compounds, cyanides, acid or basic
effluents, tars, and thermal discharges.
                           3-225
                                                                         J

-------
The basic parameters used in establishing water effluent
guidelines are: suspended solids, total chromium, hexovalent
chromium, total cyanide, manganese, phenol, and pH.

Control Technology and Costs.  Current water pollution
control and treatment technology used in the ferroalloy
industry for those plants utilizing wet air pollution
control devices has been through sedimentation of scrubber
water in large lagoons.  Hence, wastewaters are now being
treated by physical means.

Best Practicable Technology for Subcategories I and II
involves both physical and chemical treatment by means of
sedimentation  (clarifiers and flocculators) and chemicals
such as: caustic or sulfuric acid solutions, sulfur dioxide,
and chlorine dioxides.  Also included is recycling of water
at the scrubber to aid in removal of toxic pollutants.
Process water quality requirements for Subcategory III are
less stringent than the other two, but also requires
sedimentation and chemical treatment when necessary.

Best Available Technology  (and NSPS) for Subcategories I and
II, in addition to BPT, includes recirculation of the
wastewater, which necessitates the addition of sand
filtration for suspended solids removal.  Subcategory III,
in addition to BPT, will require process water recirculation
for suspended solids removal.

In order to compute the incremental capital costs to this
industry, it is necessary to estimate the number of plants
that have wet air pollution control devices.  It is
estimated that 32 percent have wet air pollution control, 38
percent have dry air pollution control, and 30 percent have
no air pollution control.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Bianessi and Pesking  (GSP).  This analysis was condected in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The ferroalloy GSP estimates are
as follows (in 1975 dollars):
  Incremental BPT Investment
  Incremental BPT OSM
15.0
 5.0
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Principal reasons for the differences are
                           3-226

-------
industry definition expansion and changes in plant inventory
estimates.  Note that both studies agree to within 12
percent.

                           3-227

-------
in
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Table 4-21-1 .
Ferroal loy
Industry Data Summary
1977 1983 1985


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IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and capacities.  The iron and
steel industry is one of the largest in the nation,
comprising some 179 companies operating 420 plants; 23 steel
companies operate approximately 65 integrated steel plants.
These integrated plants represent about 90 percent of the
total steel-making capacity.  The balance of the steel-
making capacity is represented by the non-integrated steel
producers, many of whom are classified as mini-mills.

The iron and steel industry comprises the coking, blast
furnace-sinter plant, iron casting, steel manufacturing, and
steel casting segments.  The industry is primarily engaged
in manufacturing hot metal, pig iron, and ferroalloys from
iron ore and iron and steel scrap, and in converting pig
iron, scrap iron, and scrap steel into steel.  Merchant
blast furnaces and byproduct or beehive coke ovens are also
included in the industry.

Three basic steps are involved in the production of steel.
First, coal is converted to pure carbon or coke.  Second,
coke is then combined with iron ore and limestone in a blast
furnace to produce iron.  Third, the iron is purified into
steel in either an open-hearth, basic-oxygen, or electric-
arc furnace.  Further refinements include degassing by
subjecting the steel to a high vacuum.  Steel that is not
cast in ingot molds can be cast in a process called
continuous casting.

For the purpose of establishing effluent guidelines, the
industry has been divided into 12 subcategories as follows:

  •  Byproduct coke

  •  Beehive coke

  •  Sintering

  •  Blast furnace  (iron)

  •  Blast furnace  (ferromanganese)

  •  Basic-oxygen furnace  (semi-wet air pollution
     control methods)

  •  Basic-oxygen furnace  (wet air pollution
     control methods)

  •  Open-hearth furnace
                            3-230

-------
  •  Electric-arc furnace (semi-wet air pollution
     control methods)

  •  Electric-arc furnace (wet air pollution
     control methods)

  •  Vacuum degassing

  •  Continuous casting.

Basic-oxygen furnaces and open-hearth furnaces produce
almost all of the steel; electric-arc furnaces are mostly
mini-mills.  Only seven electric-arc furnaces reported the
use of "wet" air pollution control equipment.  Hence, the
effluent limitations guidelines apply mainly to the large,
integrated mills.

The total annual raw steel capacity in 1972 of the iron and
steel industry was approximately 1,070 million metric tons.
Of this, the integrated mills accounted for approximately
15«t million metric tons (94 percent).

Although the year-to-year production of raw steel has
fluctuated widely, the average annual rate of growth over
the past 15 years has been about 3.5 percent, from 84
million metric tons in 1959 to an estimated 136 million
metric tons in 1973.  This has been accomplished with a very
modest establishment of new integrated mills, although many
non-integrated "mini-mills" have been built.  Most of the
increase in capacity has been accomplished by upgrading
capacities of existing steel plants, building larger blast
furnaces, and replacing open-hearth furnaces with basic-
oxygen furnaces.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The principal source of
wastewater pollutants from the iron and steel industry is
cooling water.  Enormous amounts of water are used in the
steel-making process to cool furnaces and finished products,
and to quench hot coke, slag, etc.  Much of this is "once-
through" cooling water, although blowdown from recirculating
systems and barometric condenser water is also present.
Water used in "semi-wet11 air pollution control systems
constitutes the second-most important source of wastewater
from the iron and steel industry.  Other significant sources
of wastewater include excess ammonia liquor and light oil
recovery wastes from byproduct coke-making, and gas cleaning
water from blast furnace operation.

Pollutants covered by the effluent limitations guidelines
are cyanide, phenol, ammonia, oil and grease, suspended
solids, sulfide, fluoride, manganese, nitrate, zinc, lead.
                           3-231
                                                                       J

-------
and pH.  The guidelines apply to aqueous waste discharge
only, exclusive of non-contact cooling waters.

Control Technology and Costs.  Treatment control practices
currently employed in the iron and steel industry may be
summarized as follows:
Source

Ammonia liquors


Quenching


Gas cleaning




Vacuum degassing



Continuous casting
Treatment Control Practices

Ammonia stripping, solvent recovery,
detarring

Settling followed by discharge or
recycle

Thickening, alkaline chlorination,
chemical coagulation, sometimes with
settling or filtration followed by
discharge or recycle

Evaporative cooling or cooling towers,
sometimes with settling or filtration
followed by recycle

Settling, filtration, evaporative
cooling followed by recycle
The treatment technologies called for by the effluent
limitations guidelines are summarized in Table 1-22-1.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Environmental Protection Agency by Temple,
Barker & Sloane, Inc. (TBS)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The TBS estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
                           3-232

-------
                       Incremental
                       Investment
             Incremental OSM
1974-77
Phase .1
Phase II
Storm Runoff
Other Water

1978-83
Phase I
Phase II
Storm Runoff
Other water
1,760
  250
1,330
   20
  160

1,820
  400
  850
  130
  440
  290
   30
  130

   30

2,610
  420
1,270
  100
  820
The earlier SEAS calculations are presented in Table 4-22-2,
with projected pollutact discharges associated with these
costs.  SEAS addresses only Phase I and Phase II costs.  The
Phase I investment costs of both studies are within
approximately five percent of each other for 1974-1977, with
Phase I investment costs over 1978-1983 approximately ten
percent in difference.  Phase II investment costs over 1978-
1983 are extremely close—within three percent.  However,
the timing of the payments varies substantially between the
two studies for Phase II.

While the total investment expenditures of both studies are
remarkably similar for 1974-1983, significant differences
exist in assignment of these costs to meeting BPT or BAT
regulations.  TBS states a BPT cost of $1,390 million, with
an additional cost of $150 million for changes in
construction, yielding a total estimate of $1,540 million
for Phase I and Phase II investment costs.  SEAS lists $865
million plus 108 million for expansion costs during this
period for a total of $973 million.  No estimate for changes
in construction work is included in SEAS.  Phase I cost
estimates of TBS for meeting BPT regulations are lower than
SEAS, whereas Phase II is substantially higher.  This is
because TBS estimates are derived from the more stringent
guidelines issued by EPA in March 1976.  SEAS Phase II cost
estimates were based upon an earlier guideline outlined by
EPA in August 1975.  An additional source of variance in the
cost projections is that TBS bases their forecasts upon
projected 1983 production levels.  SEAS uses estimates of
1972 production, and historical growth patterns of the
industry to forecast future production.
* "Economic Analysis of Proposed and Interim Final Effluent
  Guidelines, Integrated Iron and Steel Industry", Temple,
                           3-233

-------
Barker & Sloane, Inc., March, 1976.
                        3-231

-------
                                  Table 1-22-1.
                    Iron  and  Steel  Control Technologies
Subcategory

Byproduct
Beehive coke
Sintering
Blast furnace (iron)
Blast furnace
(ferromanganese)
Basic-oxygen furnace
{semi-wet air pollution
control methods)
Basic-oxygen furnace
(wet air pollution control
methods)
BPT .

Ammonia still operation
wt th  1ime operation,
dephenoiization, sedimen-
tation, neutralization.
Settling basin with
complete recycle and no
aqueous biowdown.

Thickener with chemical
flocculation, tight
recycle, surface skimming,
neutralizat ion.

Thickening with blymer
addition, recycle using
cool ing tower.
Thickening with blymer
addition, scrubber water,
recycle with evaporative
cooling, pH adjustment.

Sett)ing tank wi th
chemical and/or magnetic
flocculat ion, complete
recycle and no aqueous
blowdown.

Class* fier/thickener
with chemical and/or
magnetic flocculation,
tight recycle, neutrali-
zation.
 BAT
                           N5PS
                                                        BPT,  less dephenoiization  Same as BAT.
                                                        plus  sulfide oxidation,
                                                        clarification, multi-stage
                                                        biological oxidation with
                                                        methanol addition (or
                                                        alkaline chlorination and
                                                        carbon adsorption), and
                                                        pressure filtration.
                                                       Same as 8PT.
                                                       BPT, plus 1ime preci-
                                                       pitation of fluorides.
 BPT,  plus alkaline
 chlorination, press use
 filtration, and carbon
 adsorption, neutrali-
 zation.

,Same  as above.
 Same as BPT.
                                                                                  Same as BPT.
                           Same as BAT.
                                                                                  Same as  BAT.
Same as BAT.
                           Same as BPT.
 Blowdown treatment using
 lime precipitation of
 fluorides and sand filtra-
 tion or improved settling
 with coagulation.
Same as BAT.
                                        3-235

-------
                          Table i»-22-1.  (Continued)
                    Iron and Steel Control  Technologies
Subcategory

Open-hearth furnace
Electric-arc furnace
(semi-wet air pollution
centre' methods)
BPT
Same as above.
£?ectric-arc furnace
(wet air pollution control
methods)
Vacuum degassing
Settling tank with
cf'eT.ical and/or magnetic
f speculation with complete
recycle and no aqueous
blowdown, or controlled
wetting of gases to form
sludge only, no recycle
or blowdown.

Classifier/thickener with
chemical and/or magnetic
flocculation, tight
recycle, neutralization.
BAT

Same as above with
anaerobic denitri-
ficat ion.

Same as BPT.
                NSPS

                Same as BAT
                without
                denltri ficatton.

                Same as BPT.
Continuous casting
Settling via classifier.
tight recycle over a
cooli ng tower.
Scale pit with dragout
conveyor, oil skimmer,
f latbed fi 1 tration.
recycle with cooling
tower.
Blowdown treatment using
iime precipitation of
fluorides and sand filtra-
tion or improved settling
with coagulation.

Slowdown treatment with
coagulation/clarificati on.
and anaerobic denitrifi-
caticn (or substitution
of another gas for nitro-"
gen), neutralization.
BPT, plus
b1owdown.
fi1trat ion or
                Same as BAT
                Same as BAT
                wi thout
                deni trl Hcation.
Same as BAT.
Source: EPA Development Document,  June  1974.
                                        3-236

-------
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BAUXITE REPINING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are nine
domestic bauxite refineries owned by five primary aluminum
producers.  Bauxite refining is carried on only by these
primary aluminum producers, ususally in very large-scale
installations.

Size range distribution and alumina production capacities of
the refineries are classified as: small (500,000 metric tons
per year), medium (501,000 - 1,000,000 metric tons per
year), and large (>1,000,000 metric tons per year).

The bauxite refining industry is a subcategory of the
aluminum segment of the nonferrous metals industry.  Bauxite
is the principal ore of aluminum and the only one used
commercially in the United States.  It consists of aluminum
oxide (hydrated) and contains various impurities, such as
iron oxide, aluminum silicate, titanium dioxide, quartz, and
compounds of phosphorous and vanadium.  Two processes are
used in alumina refining: Bayer process and combination
process.

The Bayer process is classically used in the United States.
Impure alumina in the bauxite is dissolved in a hot, strong
alkali solution  (generally NaOH), to form sodium aluminate.
Upon dilution and cooling, the sodium aluminate hydrolyzes,
forming a precipitate of aluminum hydroxide which is
filtered and calcined (roasting or burning to bring about
physical or chemical changes) to alumina  (pure).

The combination process is applied to high-silica bauxites.
It is similar to the Bayer process but includes an
additional extracting step.  This is accomplished by mixing
the red mud residue from the prior step with limestone and
sodium carbonate, and then sintering this mixture at 1100°
to 1200°C.  Silica is converted to calcium silicate and
residual alumina to sodium aluminate.  The sintered products
are leached to produce additional sodium aluminate solution,
which is either filtered and added to the main stream for
precipitation or is precipitated separately.  The residual
solids  (brown mud)  are slurried to a waste lake.

Higher taxes and levies on imported bauxite have increased
the interest in the possible use of alternative materials
located in the United States to produce alumina.  Efforts to
use domestic sources of raw materials, such as clays,
alunite, and anorthosite, are increasing, and a U.S.
producer is now using a Soviet process termed successful in
refining alumina from alunite.
                           3-241

-------
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The primary waste from a
bauxite refinery is the gangue (worthless rock) from the
ore, known as red or brown mud, which is produced in large
quantities.  From about one-third to one ton of red mud will
be produced per ton of alumina.  An increase of 2 to 2-1/2
ton per ton occurs from brown mud.

The principal water streams in a bauxite refinery are the
following: red mud stream, spent liquor, condensates,
barometric condenser cooling water, and storm water runoff.

The major process waste is the mud residue.  The Bayer
process produces a red mud while the combination process
treats this mud and forms a brown mud.  However, these
differences do not alter the problem of disposal.

Wastewater parameters used for determining effluent
guidelines include: alkalinity, pH, total dissolved solids,
total suspended solids, and suitate.  Mud residue resulting
from process operations is produced on a large scale (500 to
nearly 4,000 kkgs per day).  Use of wastewater recycle
systems, along with complete waste retention, will eliminate
the discharge of all process wastewater pollutants to
receiving waters.

The guidelines for all three levels of control  (BPT, BAT and
NSPS) are essentially no discharge of process wastewaters to
navigable waters.  To allow for certain climatic conditions,
the guidelines permit a bauxite refining plant to discharge
an amount of water equal to the amount by which rainfall
exceeds the natural evaporation.  This amount is applicable
to only that rainfall landing directly in impoundment areas,
such as active and dormant mud lakes and neutralization
lakes.

Control Technology and Costs. Since enormous aqueous waste
suspensions are generated in bauxite refining, no
practicable or currently available treatment or control
technology for these wastes exists, except for impoundment.
In all but two plants, a. large diked area for impounding the
red mud has been made available.  Wastes containing high
alkalinity or acidity can be neutralized, but this leads to
the creation of dissolved solids.  Mud and other pollutants
from refining, however, can be impounded in a red mud lake
system.  Cooling towers may be an alternative for the
cooling water supply for barometric condenser effluents.

Two plants are known to be currently operating with no
discharge of water.  Four other plants have prepared or are
implementing plans to achieve no discharge of process waters
before the effective date of effluent limitations.  Two
                           3-2tt2

-------
plants are currently discharging all wastes, but are
implementing plans to impound red mud.

The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin  (G&P).1 This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The bauxite G&P estimates are as
follows (in 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment          63.4
  Incremental BPT o&M                  6.7

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  G&P lists costs on a plant-by-plant basis,
whereas SEAS utilizes model plants with associated average
costs.  This, combined with the capital in place assumptions
of the computer model, resulted in different cost estimates.
  Gianessi, L. P. -and H. M. Peskin, "The cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December 1975.
  (Revised January 1976)
                           3-2«3

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PRIMARY ALUMINUM SMELTING INDUSTRY

Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The primary
aluminum industry has three production stages: bauxite
mining, bauxite refining to produce alumina (aluminum
oxide), and the reduction of alumina to produce aluminum
metal; this last state is commonly known as aluminum
smelting.

The reduction of alumina to produce aluminum metal is
carried out in electrolytic cells, or pots, that are
connected in series to form a potline.  The facility
containing a number of potlines is referred to as the
potroom.  The electrolysis takes place in a molten bath
composed principally of cryolite, which is a double fluoride
of sodium and aluminum; alumina is added to the bath
periodically.  As electrolysis proceeds, aluminum is
deposited at the cathode, and oxygen is evolved at the
carbon anode.  The oxygen reacts with the carbon to produce
a mixture of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide while the
anode is consumed.

Two methods of replacing the anodes are practiced; they are
referred to as the prebaked anode  (intermittent replacement)
and the Soderberg anode  (continuous replacement).  For
either system, the anode preparation begins in the anode
paste plant, where petroleum coke and pitch are hot-blended.
For prebaked anodes, the anode paste is pressed in molds,
and the anodes are baked in the anode bake plant.  The baked
anodes are used to replace consumed anodes, and the anode
butts are returned to the anode preparation area.  In the
Soderberg anode system, the anode paste is not baked
initially, but is fed continuously in the form of briquette
through a shell into the pot.  As the paste approaches the
hot bath, the paste is baked in place to form the anode.
Soderberg anodes are supported in the sleeves by vertical or
horizontal studs.

The continuous evolution of gaseous reaction products from
the aluminum reduction cell yields a large volume of fume
that requires ventilation systems to remove it from the
potroom.  The ventilation air must be scrubbed to minimize
air pollution and both dry and wet scrubbing methods are
used for this purpose.  Water from wet scrubbers, used for
air pollution control on potroom ventilation air, is the
major source of wastewater in the primary aluminum industry.

The liquid aluminum produced is tapped periodically, and the
metal is cast in a separate cast-house facility.  The molten
metal is degassed before casting by bubbling chlorine or a
                           3-2*6

-------
mixed gas through the melt.  The chlorine degassing
procedure also produces a fume which must be scrubbed for
air pollution control.

A few aluminum smelters have metal fabrication facilities,
such as rod mills, rolling mills, etc., on the primary
reduction plant site.  Since these metal fabrication
operations will be covered under separate effluent
limitations, they are not covered by the effluent
limitations derived for this report.

Waste Sources and Pollutants.  As mentioned previously, the
major source of wastewater in the primary aluminum smelting
industry is the water used in air pollution control
equipment (scrubbers) that are installed on potline and
potroom ventilation air systems.  Scrubbers are also used on
anode bake furnace flue gas, and on cast-house gases.  Other
significant sources of wastewater include: cooling water
used in casting, rectifiers, and fabrication; boiler
blowdown; and storage area run-off, especially water
contaminated with fluoride from spent cathodes.

The following pollutant parameters have designated the
following significant pollutants from the primary aluminum
smelting industry for the purposes of establishing effluent
limitations guidelines: fluoride, total suspended solids,
and pH.  Other wastewater pollutants identifiable with the
industry, but not considered significant, include: oil and
grease, cyanide, dissolved solids, chloride, sulfate,
chemical oxygen demand, temperature, and trace metals.

Control Technology and costs.  The existing technologies for
controlling wastewater volume in this industry include dry
fume scrubbing, and recycling of water to wet scrubbers
after precipitation by lime or alum, absorption of activated
alumina or hydroxylapatite, and reverse osmosis.  Table 4-
24-1 summarizes the present and potential control and
treatment technologies for the primary aluminum smelting
industry, as forecast by SEAS.
                           3-247

-------
Control Technology

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 BPT  includes  the treatment of wet scrubber water and other
 fluoride-containing effluents to precipitate the fluoride,
 followed by settling of the precipitate and recycling of the
 clarified liquor to the wet scrubbers.   A holding pond or
 lagoon might  also be necessary to minimize the discharge of
 suspended solids.   Precipitation methods currently available
 use  cryolite  and lime.   Alternate control technologies,
 which can be  employed to achieve the required effluent
 levels,  include dry fume scrubbing, total impoundment, and
 reuse of effluent water by a companion  operation.

 The  application of the  BPT described above results in a
 relatively low-ypl'ume,  high-concentration bleed stream from
•:the.;;re1cyjcWng,.;System.;,;BAT is lime or .calcium chloride
 pre.c'i^i^atiOTl €r^^mi^t; "of the bleed stream to further
 reduce?:the diisc'iiarge .of.,','fluprides.  Use of this technology
.assumes; the volume, fpf fluoride-containing effluent is
 reduced to apE>rpximately: 5,;000 liters per metric ton of
 aluminum.  Alternatively* volumes as high as 50,000 liters
 per;metric ton  of aluminum may be possible if the effluent
 •is treated by absorption methods  (activated alumina or
 hydroxylapatite).

 NSPS technology assumes the application of dry fume
 scrubbing systems or, alternatively, wet scrubbing equipment
 together with total impoundment or total recycling of the
 scrubber water.  The treatment for flouride and suspended
 solids removal  is essentially the same as for BPT above.
 The  NSPS require the restriction of the discharge volume to
 835  liters per  metric ton of aluminum with a final fluoride
 concentration of 30 mg  per liter; or an equivalent
 combination of  fluoride level and volume.  Alternatives for
 reducing water  use and  pollutant levels include air-cooled,
 solid state rectifiers; molten metal degassing; and careful
 cleaning of the anode butts before recycling.

 Approximately one-third of the primary aluminum smelting
 plants in the United States are currently operating with
 discharge levels of pollutants within the July 1977
 guidelines.
                            3-2U9

-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
Gianessi and Peskin {G&P)».  This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):

  Incremental BPT Investment    $28.7
  Incremental BPT O&M           $ 7.0

Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs.  Several reasons for differences between these
cost estimates and the newer data exist.  One major
discrepancy resulted from differences in the application of
engineering estimates.  SEAS and the EPA Development
Document used exemplary plant data to derive average costs
per plants, while G&P used each plant as a model for its
size class.  As a result, capital costs per ton of output
were 60 percent higher in the G&P study.  Another difference
is due to estimates of "capital-in-place".  G&P assumed that
70 percent was already installed as compared to a 30 percent
level assumed by SEAS.  O&M costs vary considerable due to
the considerations affecting plant inventory and treatment
levels as well as differences in attribution of the O&M to
federal laws.
1 Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
  of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
  National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
  (Revised January, 1976)
                           3-250

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    -------
    SECONDARY ALUMINUM SMELTING INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and capacities.  The secondary
    aluminum industry comprises an estimated 54 firms with 58
    plants.  Other sources list the industry as having more
    plants, but these numbers include sweaters, scrap dealers,
    and non-integrated fabricators.  For purposes of this
    report, the number of plants reported excludes these
    portions of the industry as they do not employ any of the
    processes included in the effluent limitations guidelines.
    
    The secondary aluminum smelting industry is a subcategory of
    the aluminum segment of the nonferrous metals manufacturing
    category.  This industry recovers, processes, and remelts
    various grades of aluminum-bearing scrap to produce metallic
    aluminum or an aluminum alloy as a product, which is used
    primarily to supply the following industries: construction,
    aircraft, automotive, electrical equipment, beverage cans,
    and fabricated metal products, which include a wide variety
    of home consumer products.  The largest user of secondary
    aluminum ingot is the automotive industry.
    
    The estimated 1973 capacity was 966,572 metric tons.  The
    top four firms (Alcoa, Reynolds, Kaiser, and ormet) account
    for about 50 percent of the capacity.
    
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Wastewaters are generated by
    the following processes:  (1) ingot cooling and shot
    quenching,  (2) scrubbing of furnace fumes during demagging,
    and (3) wet milling of residues or residue fractions.
    Secondary aluminum ingot is produced to specifications;
    melting to specification is achieved mainly by segregating
    the incoming scrap into alloy types.  The magnesium content
    can be removed with a chlorine-gas treatment in a
    reverberating furnace.
    
    The following are the primary wastewater pollutants
    discharged by the above processes: oil and grease, suspended
    and dissolved solids, and salts of aluminum and magnesium.
    
    In metal cooling, molten metal in the furnace is usually
    either cast into ingot or sow molds or is quenched into
    shot.  When cooling water is generated, ingot molds are
    sprayed while on conveyor belts to solidify the aluminum and
    allow its ejection from the mold.  Shot is solidified by
    having metal droplets fall into a water bath.  The
    wastewater generated is either vaporized, discharged to
    municipal sewage or navigable waters, recycled for some
    period and discharged {6-month intervals), continuously
    recycled with no discharge, or discharged to holding ponds.
                               3-253
    

    -------
    Fume scrubbing results when aluminum scrap contains a higher
    percentage of magnesium than is desired for the alloy
    produced.  Magnesium removal, or "demagging," is
    accomplished by either passing chlorine through the melt
    (chlorination) or with aluminum fluoride.  While magnesium
    is extracted, heavy fuming results from demagging, which
    requires passing the fumes through a wet scrubbing system.
    Water used in scrubbing gains pollutants, primarily in the
    scrubbing of chlorine demagging fumes.
    
    Residue processing takes place in the industry since
    residues are composed of 10 to 30 percent aluminum, with
    attached aluminum oxide fluxing salts (mostly NaCl and KCl)f
    dirt, and various other chlorides, fluorides, and oxides.
    The metal is separated from the non-metals by milling and
    screening, which is performed wet or dry.  In wet milling,
    the dust problem is minimized but the resulting waste stream
    is similar to scrubber waters in make-up but more
    concentrated in-dissolved solids.  Water is passed into a
    settling pond before discharge.
    
    The major wastewater parameters stem from two wastewater
    streams: wet milling of residues and fume scrubbing.  Wet
    milling of residues include: total suspended solids,
    fluorides, ammonia, aluminum, copper, COD, and pH.  Fume
    scrubbing includes: total suspended solids, COD, and pH.
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  Approximately 10 percent of
    the industry is currently discharging directly to navigable
    waters.  The majority of the industry discharges effluents
    into municipal treatment works, usually with some treatment.
    
    Currently, some plants are utilizing various control
    alternatives for each of the three major wastewater sources.
    The control technologies required to meet BPT and BAT are as
    follows:
                               3-254
    

    -------
    BPT
      Metal Cooling.  Air cooling or continuous recycling of
      cooling water with periodic removal, dewatering, and
      disposal of sludge.
    
      Fume Scrubbing.  Chlorine fume scrubbing (for magnesium
      removal using chlorine) :  pH adjustment and settling.
      Fluoride fume scrubbing (for magnesium removal using
      aluminum fluorides) : pH adjustment, settling, and total
      recycling.
    
      Residue Milling.  pH adjustment with settling and water
      recycle.
    BAT
    
    • Metal Cooling.  Air cooling, water cooling (for complete
      evaporation) and total use and recycle of cooling water by
      use of settling and sludge dewatering.
    
    • Fume Scrubbing.  Use of aluminum fluoride for magnesium
      removal, and entrapment of fumes without major use of
      water, using alternatives such as the Alcoa process,
      Derham process or the Tesisorb process.
    
    • Residue Milling.  Dry milling, and a water recycle,
      evaporation, and salt reclamation process.
    
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
    Gianessi and Peskin (GSP)».  This analysis was conducted in
    somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
    data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
    calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
    However, time and resource constraints prevented
    incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
    the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
    (in million 1975 dollars):
    
      Incremental BPT Investment    $2.5
      Incremental BPT O&M           $0.6
                               3-255
                                                                            J
    

    -------
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
    below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
    these costs.  Several reasons for differences between these
    cost estimates and the newer data exist.  One major
    discrepancy resulted from differences in the application of
    engineering estimates.  SEAS and the EPA Development
    Document used exemplary plant data to derive average costs
    per plants, while GSP used each plant as a model for its
    size class.  O6M costs vary considerable due to the
    considerations affecting plant inventory and treatment
    levels as well as differences in attribution of the O6M to
    federal laws.
      Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
      of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
      National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
      (Revised January, 1976)
                               3-256
    

    -------
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    -------
    PRIMARY COPPER INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The primary
    copper industry includes establishments primarily engaged in
    smelting copper from ore and in refining copper by
    electrolytic or other processes.  Operations involving the
    mining of copper ore, as well as the rolling, drawing, and
    extruding of copper* are not included in this industry
    category.  The basic process used by the primary copper
    industry is pyrometallurgical.  Copper concentrates are fed
    to the primary smelter, which produces "blister copper"
    after roasting, smelting, and converting.  The blister
    copper is then purified by fire-refining.  If additional
    purification is required, an electrolytic process is
    employed, with the final product being cathode copper.
    Byproducts, such as gold and silver which were contaminants
    of the blister copper, are collected as "slimes" during
    electrolytic refining and are subsequently recovered.
    
    In the roasting operation, the copper concentrates are
    subjected to controlled heat to burn away sulfur and other
    impurities.  The copper silicate thus produced is then
    charged to a reverberatory or an electric furnace along with
    scrap copper, recycled slab, and fluxing materials to
    produce a copper-iron-sulfide material called matte.  The
    liquid matte is then converted to a relatively impure form
    of copper called blister copper by an oxidation process
    involving the blowing of thin streams of air through the
    molten material.
    
    In the fire-refining process, air is introduced beneath the
    molten copper in reverberatory or cylindrical furnaces.
    Sulfur dioxide passes off as a gas, and metal oxides appear
    in a slag which is skimmed off.  The remaining metal is then
    deoxidized by the addition of coke and by insertion of large
    poles of green hardwood, which decompose into reducing
    gases; alternatively, natural gases may be used to reduce
    the cuprous oxide.  Almost all fire-refined copper is cast
    into anodes for electrolytic refining.  In this process,
    copper is separated from impurities by electrolytic
    dissolution at the anode and disposition of the pure metal
    at the cathode; the electrolyte used is usually a dilute
    solution of sulfuric acid and copper sulfate.
    
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The primary copper industry
    generates wastewater in the following processes or
    operations:
    
      1. Slag granulation, i.e. spraying molten slag with jets
         of water to produce slag granules.
                               3-259
    

    -------
      2. Slowdown from the sulfuric acid plants used to control
         sulfur dioxide emissions.
    
      3. Water used to cool fire-refined copper, anode copper,
         shot copper, and various forms of cathode copper
         casting.
    
      ft. Refining operations such as disposal of spent
         electrolyte, electrolytic refinery washing, and slimes
         recovery.
    
      5. Miscellaneous operations such as blowdown from
         scrubbing system, slurry overflow from dust collection
         systems, plant washdown, and byproduct scrubbing.
    
      6. Storm water run-off commingling with process
         wastewaters.
    
    Non-process water uses, such as non-contact cooling water
    and water used in on-site power generation, are also
    possible sources of wastewaters, but they are not covered in
    the effluent guidelines.
    
    Wastewater constituents, which have been determined to be
    present in the process wastewaters of the primary copper
    industry in sufficient quantities to warrant their control
    and treatment, are as follows:  total suspended solids,
    arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, selenium, zinc, oil and
    grease, and pH.  Other pollutant parameters which may be
    present include dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, other
    metals, cyanide, chemical oxygen demand, and temperature
    (heat).
    
    For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
    guidelines, the primary copper industry has been divided
    into three subcategories:
    
      1. Primary copper smelters including refineries located
         on-site with smelters.
    
      2. Primary copper refineries located in areas of net
         evaporation.
    
      3. Primary copper refineries located in areas of net
         rainfall.
    
    The effluent limitations for the first two subcategories for
    BPT, BAT, and NSPS guidelines are essentially no discharge
    of process water pollutants into navigable Waters except:
                               3-260
    

    -------
      1. A volume of wastewater equivalent to that which falls
         within a properly-designed impoundment in excess of
         that attributable to a 10-year, 24-hour rainfall event.
    
      2. During any calendar month a volume of wastewater
         equivalent to the difference between the precipitation
         for that month which falls within the impoundment and
         the evaporation for that month (or the difference
         between the means of precipitation and evaporation
         established for the area).
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  Most of the primary copper
    industry employs judicious practices to control the volume
    of wastewater discharged.  Very little, if any, process
    wastewaters are discharged at most operations.  Primary
    copper smelters, because of the integration of their
    operations, have numerous possibilities for process
    wastewater controls.  Refineries with no on-site smelting
    operations do not have available all of these possible
    control approaches.  The following list summarizes some of
    the alternatives available for controlling wastewaters
    discharged from the principal sources in the industry:
    
      1. Slag granulation.  Conversion to slag dumping; recycle
         and/or reuse of wastewaters.
    
      2. Acid plant blowdown.  Reuse and minimization of
         blowdown by reducing particulate load and heat.
    
      3. Contact cooling water.  Minimizing "temperature" bleed
         by providing sufficient cooling ponds or towers;
         recycling and/or reuse; use of air cooling.
    
      <». Refinery wastes.  Converting from vacuum evaporators to
         open evaporators; sale of spent electrocyle; recyle
         and/or reuse of spent electrolyte, electrolytic
         refining washing, and scrubber waters; reuse of
         washdown waters; segregation and retention of storm
         water runoff.
    
    The treatment of wastewater streams prior to discharge in
    the primary copper industry normally includes neutralization
    and precipitation, additional chemical precipitation, and
    oil and grease removal by skimming where necessary.
    Advanced technologies with possible applications include
    reverse osmosis, ion exchange, evaporation, carbon
    adsorption, deep-well disposal, and fixation as a solid.
    
    The control technologies recommended for primary copper
    smelters and for primary copper refineries in areas of net
    evaporation consist of the elimination of water discharge
    
    
                               3-261
    

    -------
    through the use of recycling or reuse, and other
    technologies, such as those listed above, and the use of
    impoundment with disposal by solar evaporation.
    
    Disposal sources, such as the reuse of process waters at on-
    site mining, milling, and smelting operations are not
    available to refineries not provided with smelters.
    Consequently, control technology recommended for BPT
    guidelines consists of reduction of process wastewater
    volumes through recycling, reuse, etc., as discussed above,
    plus the liming and settling of resultant effluents.  To
    meet BAT and NSPS guidelines, a continued reduction in the
    volume of process waters is recommended.
    
    Most of the facilities in the primary copper industry
    currently discharge very little wastewater.
    
    Annualized costs are summarized in Table 4-26-1.  Although
    this report does not include an industry summary for
    Secondary Copper, Table U-26-2 summarizes industry data,
    including investment and control costs.
                               3-262
    

    -------
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    -------
    PRIMARY LEAD INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The primary lead
    industry includes establishments that are primarily engaged
    in smelting lead from ore and in refining lead by any
    process.  Those establishments that are primarily engaged in
    the mining or milling of ores, and in rolling, drawing, and
    extruding lead are not included in this industrial category.
    
    Primary lead in the United States is recovered entirely from
    sulfide ores, which are associated with other minerals,
    principally zinc, copper, and silver.  The sequence of lead
    smelting and refining processes are: charge preparation
     (blending of the concentrate with flux and a variety of
    recycling products, including dust from collection systems,
    fumes, etc.), pellitzing, sintering, blast furnace smelting,
    and the subsequent refining operations to remove, and in
    some cases recover, metallic impurities.  In the sintering
    process, the pellets of ore concentrate are burned to remove
    sulfur and other impurities, and to produce "sinter" of
    suitable size and strength for subsequent treatment in the
    blast furnace.  By a combination of heat and reducing gases
    in the blast furnace, the sinter, recycled slag, etc., are
    separated into two constituent phases: molten metal and
    slag.  The metals that are easily reduced, such as lead,
    copper, silver, gold, bismuth, antimony, and arsenic, become
    part of the metal, phase.  Refining operations include:
    dressing, the cooling of the molten lead so that excess
    copper floats' to the surface; softening, either by air
    oxidation or/by slag oxidation to remove antimony; and fire
    refining methods, where the,molten lead is treated with zinc
    or\with ^calcjLum^nd magnesium to;form gold, silver, and
    bismuth 'TOmpqwas'fwhich-float...to'the surface.
    The primary 'lead',•'industry;'consists of five domestic  lead
    :smelters and fiJyejrefineriies, three of which are  located on-
    site with smelters.
    
    The major uses of lead in the United States are as follows:
    batteries-36 percent, gasoline additives-19 percent, alloys
    and miscellaneous-27 percent, pipe and sheet-U percent,
    pigments-9 percent, and cable-5 percent.  Lead useage is
    heavily dependent upon the automobile industry.   At  present,
    the continued use of ackyl-lead compounds as gasoline
    additives is in question; this market might eventually be
    eliminated.  Basically, lead has no substitutes in its
    numerous alloy, pipe, and sheet uses; its growth  in  these
    markets is closely tied to the growth of the construction
    industry.
                                3-267
    

    -------
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The principal sources of
    wastewaters from the primary lead industry are as follows:
    
      •  Slowdown from the sulfuric acid plants used to control
         sulfur dioxide emissions from sintering operations
         (three plants).
    
      •  streams from blast furnace slag, speiss, and/or dross
         granulation.  Molten slag, dross, etc., is granulated
         by impacting the molten stream with a high-pressure
         water jet.  Usually the wastewater streams are
         intermittent overflows or bleed streams from a
         recirculating water system (five plants).
    
      •  Wastewaters from wet scrubber equipment used in the
         control of air pollution  (four plants),
    
    Various applications of non-contact cooling water are also
    found in primary lead smelters, but these non-contact
    streams are not covered by the effluent limitations
    guidelines.
    
    A broad range of pollutants are found in the wastewater
    streams from primary lead smelters and refiners.  The
    following pollutants have been found to occur in sufficient
    quantities to warrant their control and treatment: total
    suspended solids, cadmium, mercury, lead, zinc, and pH.
    Other pollutants that may be present include arsenic,
    chemical oxygen demand, cyanide, oil and grease, temperature
    (heat), dissolved chlorides, fluorides, phosphates,
    carbonates, calcium, magnesium, bismuth, and other metals.
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  Wastewater pollution control
    practices in the primary lead industry consist of in-process
    controls designed to reduce the volume of wastewater
    discharged and end-of-pipe systems to treat the wastewaters
    before discharge,  control practices currently used in the
    industry to reduce water discharges include: segregation of
    waste streams, recycling slag granulation water, recycle and
    reuse scrubber water, and good housekeeping provisions for
    the control of leaks and spills, stormwater run-off, pond
    failure, etc.  wastewater treatment technology normally
    involves lime precipitation of heavy metals.  Additional
    treatment methods which could be employed include: hydrogen
    sulfide treatment to precipitate heavy metals, reverse
    osmosis to remove ionic materials, and evaporation.
    
    The effluent limitations guidelines for the primary lead
    industry are based upon maximum use of water recycling and
    reuse plus the treatment of discharged wastewaters by lime
    neutralization and clarification.
                               3-268
    

    -------
    Five of the seven plants in the primary lead industry have
    either already achieved no discharge of process wastewater
    pollutants, or are very near and anticipate reaching this
    goal.  The two plants currently discharging process
    wastewater are geographically located in areas of net
    precipitation and operate metallurigical sulfuric acid
    plants.
    
    Annualized costs are detailed in Table 4-27-1.
                               3-269
    

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    Primary Lead
    Industry Data Summary
    1977 1983
    
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  • -------
    PRIMARY ZINC INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and capacities.  The primary zinc
    industry consists of establishments that are primarily
    engaged in smelting zinc from ore or in refining zinc by any
    process.  Establishments that are primarily engaged in the
    mining of zinc ore, or the rolling, drawing, and extruding
    of zinc are not included.  The U.S. primary zinc industry
    includes both electrolytic and pyrometallurgical retort
    plants.  Processes involved in the smelting and refining of
    zinc include roasting, sintering, reduction, and refining.
    In the roasting operation, the zinc concentrate is heated in
    an oxidizing atmosphere to burn off sulfur, lead, and other
    impurities.  For pyrolytic or retort plants, roasting is
    followed by sintering in which the roasting product,
    calcine, is heated together with various residues and zinc
    oxide materials to further reduce impurities and to produce
    a more compact feed for the retort furnaces.  In the
    reduction process, heating of the sinter in a reducing
    atmosphere removes most of the zinc oxide.  Refining the
    zinc includes processes that are designed to further purify
    the zinc; for example, by reducing the temperature of the
    molten zinc so that iron and lead precipitate or by
    distillation of the molten zinc.
    
    For the electrolytic reduction of zinc, sintering is not
    necessary.  However, acid washing of the zinc concentrate is
    necessary before roasting to remove magnesia.  Before
    reduction, the calcine from roasting is leached with the
    spent sulfuric acid electrolyte to dissolve the zinc and to
    precipitate impurities.  The purified solution is then
    introduced into electrolytic cells where zinc is deposited
    from the solution onto aluminum cathodes; the zinc cathode
    is then washed and sent to the casting plant.
    
    The zinc industry is comprised of four electrolytic  (one
    recently converted) and three pyrometallurgical retort
    plants.  U.S. production of zinc has declined from 916,977
    metric tons in 1967, to 562,340 metric tons in 197ft.  Half
    of the 14 plants operating in 1969 have closed; however, one
    plant in Illinois reopened in 1973 and additional plant
    capacity is expected.  The retort plant in Amarillo, Texas,
    is scheduled to close, but two new plants have been
    announced.
    
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Two major sources of process
    wastewaters have been identified as common to all plants in
    the primary zinc industry:
    
      •  Slowdown from the sulfuric acid plants used to control
         emissions of sulfur dioxide from roasting operations;
                               3-272
    

    -------
      •  Metal casting cooling water.
    
    Other sources of wastewaters identified for some plants
    include: scrubber water used to wash gases emitted from
    pyrolytic reduction furnaces, spent liquor from cadmium
    leaching, and scrubber water from dust control streams.  The
    industry also uses a great deal of non-contact cooling
    water, but these wastewater streams are not covered by the
    guidelines.
    
    The wastewater parameters which have been determined for the
    process wastewaters of the primary zinc industry and warrant
    control and treatment are: total suspended solids, arsenic,
    cadmium, mercury, selenium, zinc, and pH.  Other pollutant
    parameters which also may be considered include: dissolved
    solids, chemical oxygen demand, lead, nickel, copper,
    cyanide, and temperature  (heat) .
    
    Control Technology and costs.  The current treatment
    practices applied to process wastewater streams in the
    primary zinc industry include both settling and lime-and-
    settle of either segregated unit process streams or total
    plant effluents.  Control measures currently used include
    recycling with bleed-off and reuse of wastewater.
    Additional treatment methods that could be employed for
    further reduction of pollutants include: hydrogen sulfide
    treatment for further precipitation of heavy metals, reverse
    osmosis to concentrate ionic materials, evaporation, and
    chemical fixation.
    
    BPT guidelines are: the minimization of discharge or process
    wastewater recycling, reuse, or segregation; and chemical
    treatment to achieve controlled precipitation, followed by
    sedimentation (lime and settle).  Specifically recommended
    control measures include:
    
      1. The minimization of acid plant blowdown by appropriate
         proper operation of prescrubber gas and cleaning
         facilities to minimize particulate loadings into the
         wet scrubbers, cooling capacity and provisions for
         settling in the scrubber liquor recycle circuit, and
         possible reuse of the scrubber bleed stream in other
         plant operations.
    
      2. The minimization of metal casting cooling water
         discharge by recycling, possibly including provisions
         in the circuit for removal of suspended solids, oil and
         grease, and thermal loads.
    
      3. The exploitation of the evaporative capacity of hot
         gases or hot metal for in-piant disposal of wastewater.
                               3-273
    

    -------
    Technology recommended to meet BAT and NSPS is analogous to
    the above technology, and includes control measures to
    further minimize the volume of process wastewater streams by
    additional recycling, reuse, segregation and the application
    of chemical treatment to achieve controlled precipitation,
    followed by sedimentation.
    
    One plant in the primary zinc industry has already achieved
    no discharge of wastewater pollutants and another is very
    close to closure; of the remaining plants, four have lime
    and settle treatment systems.
    
    Annualized costs are summarized in Table a-28-1.
                               3-274
    

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    ASBESTOS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and Capacities. There were 68
    plants operating in the asbestos manufacturing industry in
    1972.  A majority of these asbestos plants incur wastewater
    during production.
    
    With the exception of roofing and floor tile manufacturing,
    there is a basic similarity in the manufacturing methods of
    various asbestos products.  The asbestos fibers and other
    raw materials are slurried with water and then formed into
    sheets.  Save-alls (settling tanks) are used in all
    processes.  In roofing manufacture, asphalt or coal tar is
    soaked into asbestos paper.  In floor tile manufacture,
    asbestos is added to the tiles for its special structural
    and dimension-holding qualities.
    
    Asbestos cement products are the largest overall user of
    asbestos fibers, and cement pipe is the largest producer in
    this category.  Asbestos sheet is used for laboratory table
    tops and other structural uses.  Asbestos paper and
    millboard have a great variety of uses, but it is
    particularly used for applications where direct contact with
    high temperatures occur.  Asbestos roofing and floor tiles
    are essentially fabricated products that take advantage of
    the unique qualities of asbestos.
    
    A favorable trade balance may be projected for asbestos
    products, regardless of any price effects resulting from the
    effluent standards.  However, there has been a recent trend
    towards an increase in the value of imports, with ah
    increase from $9.8 million in 1969 to $11.3 million in 1972.
    
    Waste Sources and Pollutants. Asbestos manufacturing wastes
    include: total suspended solids, BOD5, cop, pH (alkalinity),
    high temperature, total dissolved solids, nitrogen,
    phosphorous, phenols, toxic materials, oil and grease,
    organic matter, nutrients, color, and turbidity.
    
    The major source of industry wastewater is the machine that
    converts slurry into the formed wet product.  Water is used
    as: an ingredient, a carrying medium, for cooling, and for
    auxilliary uses such as pump seals, wet saws or for
    pressure-testing the pipes.  In most plants, wastewater is
    combined and discharged into a single sewer. .In all
    subcategories, water is removed during various steps to the
    save-all system  (settling tank) .  Waste characteristics are
    defined by the following parameters: total suspended solids
    (TSS), COD, and pH.
                               3-277
                                                                            J
    

    -------
    Municipal discharge by subcategories is as follows: pipe-21
    percent, sheet- 16 percent, paper- U2 percent, millboard- 57
    percent, roof ing- 4U percent, and floor tiles-54 percent.
    Total discharge by subcategories is: pipe-11 x 10*lpd,
    sheet-7 x 10»lpd, paper-20 x 10«lpd, millboard-5 x 10«lpd,
    roofing-2.2 x 10«lpd, and floor-tile-7.cj x 10«lpd.
    
    Control Technology and Costs. Waste treatment methods used
    in the asbestos industry are summarized in Table 4-29-1.
    
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
    Gianessi and Peskin  (G6P) 1.  This analysis was conducted in
    somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
    data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
    calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
    However, time and resource constraints prevented
    incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
    the SEAS model procedure.  The GSP estimates are as follows
    (in million 1975 dollars) :
    Incremental BPT Investment
    Incremental BPT OSM
                                    $0.2
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
    below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
    these costs,  principal reasons for differences between
    these cost estimates and the newer data are the levels of
    discharge to municipal treatment systems.  The sources using
    municipal treatment incur a lower capital cost requirement
     (municipal investment recovery) than do plants having on-
    site treatment.
      Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
      of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972%
      National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
      (Revised January, 1976)
                               3-278
    

    -------
                           Table 4-29-1.
                  Asbestos Manufacturing Industry
                      Haste Treatment Methods
                              Sedimentation &         complete
    Subcategories             Neutralization          Recycle
    
    Asbestos Cement
    Pipe
      BPT                           X
      BAT                                                X
      NSPS                          X
    Asbestos Cement
    Sheet
      BPT                           X
      BAT                                                X
      NSPS                                               X
    
                              Sedimenation 5          Complete
                              Coagulation             Recycle
    
    Asbestos Paper
      BPT                           X
      BAT                                                X
      NSPS                                               X
    
                              Sedimentation         Complete Recycle
                              (Elastomeric binder)   (Starch binder)
    
    Millboard
      BPT                                                X
      BAT                                                X
      NSPS                                               X
    
                              Sedimentation 6         Complete
                              Skimming            .    Recycle
    
    Roofing
      BPT                           X
      BAT                                                X
      NSPS                                               X
    Floor Tile
      BPT                           X
      BAT                                                X
      NSPS                                               X
                               3-279
    

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    CEMENT INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The cement
    industry is comprised of three subcategories, which operate
    in two basic manufacturing processes, wet and dry, and
    materials storage runoff:
    
      •  Wet process leaching plants.  The kiln dust comes into
         direct contact with water in the leaching process for
         reuse and from the wet scrubbers that control stack
         emission.
    
      •  Non-leaching plants.  The contamination of water not
         associated with the water usage.
    
      •  Pile materials.  Kiln dust, clinker, coal or other
         materials that are subject to rainfall runoff.
    
    The raw materials for cement production include lime
    (calcium oxide)r silica, aluminum, iron, and gypsum.  Lime,
    the largest single ingredient, comes from cement rock,
    oyster shell marl, or chalk.
    
    The wet process grinds up the raw materials with water and
    feeds them into the kiln as a slurry.
    
    The dry process drys the raw materials, grinds and then
    feeds them into the kiln in a dry state.
    
    In each of these processes, there are three major steps:
    grinding and blending, clinker production, and finish
    grinding.  Clinker is a material about the size of large
    marbles that has been through the kiln but has not been
    fine-ground into finished cement.
    
    The cement industry numbered 170 establishments in 1971 with
    the typical plant production estimated to be 520,000 kkg per
    year.
    
    In 1973, 80.5 million metric tons were produced.  From 1967
    to 1973, production increased at a compound annual average
    rate of 5.3 percent.  Imports have risen to meet demand,
    growing from 1.0 metric tons in 1967 to 6.1 million in 1973.
    Exports have increased to 454,000 metric tons in 1974.
    
    Prices have increased due to higher production costs and
    pollution abatement costs.  Fuel cost increases and the
    paper bag shortage are expected to affect prices.
                               3-281
    

    -------
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The main sources contributing
    to the total waste load come from the following: in-plant
    leakage, non-contact steam cooling water, process water,
    kiln dust piles runoff water, housekeeping, and wet
    scrubbers.
    
    In order to define waste characteristics, the following
    basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
    BPT and BAT:  pH, total dissolved solids, total suspended
    solids, alkalinity, potassium, sulfate, and temperature
    (heat).
    
    BPT for plants in the non-leaching subcategory has been
    defined as no discharge of pollutants from manufacturing
    except for high temperature where an increase of 3°c is
    permitted.
    
    For plants in the leaching subcategory, BPT is the same
    except for the dust-contact streams where reduction of pH to
    9.0 and suspended solids to O.U kg/kkg of dust leached is
    required.  For plants subject to the provisions of the
    Materials Storage Piles Runoff Subcategory, either the
    runoff should be contained to prevent discharge or the
    runoff should be treated to neutralize and reduce suspended
    solids.
    
    BAT for both leaching and non-leaching plants is defined as
    no discharge of pollutants.  For plants subject to the
    provisions of the Materials Storage Piles Runoff
    Subcategory, the definition of BPT is applied to BAT.
    
    NSPS is the same as BPT except that no discharge is
    permitted for plants with materials storage pile runoff.
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  The main control and
    treatment methods for the cement industry involve recycle
    and reuse of wastewater.  The devices employed include
    cooling towers or ponds, seizing ponds, containment ponds,
    and clarifiers.
    
    For leaching plants, additional controls are needed to
    adequately control alkalinity, suspended solids, and
    dissolved solids.  Alkalinity is controlled by
    neutralization, or carbonation; suspended solids by
    clarification, sometimes with the addition of flocculating
    agents.  Although none of the leaching plants currently use
    a treatment method to control dissolved solids, several
    processes that might be employed include evaporation,
    precipitation, ion exchange, reverse osmosis,
    electrodialysis, and combinations of these.
                               3-285
    

    -------
    In-plant control methods include good maintenance and
    operating procedures to minimize solid spillage and to
    return dry dust to the process.  Solids introduced into
    storm water runoff can be minimized by paving areas for
    vehicular traffic, providing good ground cover in other open
    areas, and removing accumulations of dust from roofs and
    buildings, and by building ditches and dikes to control
    runoff from materials storage piles.
    
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
    Gianessi and Peskin (G£P)».  This analysis was conducted in
    somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
    data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
    calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
    However, time and resource constraints prevented
    incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
    the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
    (in million 1975 dollars):
    
      Incremental BPT Investment    $39.1
      Incremental BPT OSM           $ 6.0
    
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
    below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
    these costs.  As can be noted, both estimates are within an
    acceptable range of computational variance.  Some minor
    difference, however, may be attributed to model plant cost
    assumptions.
    » Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The cost to Industries
      of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
      National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
      (Revised January, 1976)
                               3-286
    

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    -------
    INSULATION FIBERGLASS INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The insulation
    fiberglass industry has no subcategories.  The raw materials
    for fiberglass production are 55-73 percent silica and 27-45
    percent fluxing oxides  (e.g., limestone and borates) to
    manufacture the fiberglass filaments, and a phenolic resin
    to bind the filaments together.  Four basic types of glass
    are used: low-alkali lime alumina borosilicate, soda-lime
    borosilicate, lime-free borosilicate, and soda-lime.
    
    The basic process for fiberglass manufacture is as follows:
    the raw materials batch is melted to form a homogeneous
    glass stream  (there are two ways that the melting process
    can be done: direct melting or marble process) , then the
    molten glass stream is fiberized to form a random mat of
    fibers which are bonded together with a thermosetting
    phenolic binder or glue.  The glass is fiberized in two
    ways: flame attenuation and rotary spinning.  The trend in
    the industry is toward more use of direct melting and the
    rotary spinning fiber-forming process.
    
    The primary domestic uses for insulation fiberglass are:
    insulating material, noise insulation products, air filters,
    and bulk wool products.
    
    In 1972, there were 19 plants operated by three companies
    involved in fiberglass production.  The typical plant
    produces 123,000 metric tons per year, and all plants
    contribute to wastewater discharge.
    
    In 1972, total fiberglass production amounted to 0.77
    million metric ton.  Of the $427 million in annual sales,
    exports amounted to $8.U million and imports were $0.7
    million; therefore, foreign trade is not a significant
    portion of total consumption.
    
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The main sources contributing
    to total waste load are summarized in Table t-31-1.  In
    order to define waste characteristics, the following
    parameters were chosen to develop guidelines for meeting BPT
    and BAT:
    
      •  Phenols
      •  BODS
      •  COD
      *  Total Suspended Solids (TSS)
      •  pH
                               3-289
    

    -------
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    Source: EPA
    

    -------
    Control Technology and costs.  Because of the large volume
    of process waters and the reaction of the chain wash water
    to treatment and recycle, total recycling of wastewaters is
    the most economical treatment alternative for the insulation
    fiberglass industry.  Sample recycling systems consist of
    coarse filtration, followed by either fine filtration or
    flocculation and settling.
    
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
    Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)*.  This analysis was conducted in
    somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
    data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
    calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
    However, time and resource constraints prevented
    incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
    the SEAS model procedure.  The G&p estimates are as follows
    (in million 1975 dollars) :
    
      Incremental BPT Investment    $15.0
      Incremental BPT O5M           J 2.6
    
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
    below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
    these costs.  As can be noted, both estimates are within an
    acceptable range of computational variance.
    » Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
      of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
      National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
      (Revised January, 1976)
                               3-291
    

    -------
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    -------
    FLAT GLASS INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and capacities.  The flat glass
    industry may be divided into six major subcategories based
    on the processes employed.  However, since the sheet and
    rolled glass manufacturing industries do not contribute a
    wastewater discharge, they will not be considered for the
    purposes of this report.  The major division in the industry
    is between primary and automotive glass manufacturers and
    the processes they use.  Automotive glass manufacture is a
    fabrication process using primary glass.  The four industry
    subcategories covered in this study are: plate and float-
    primary glass production, and tempering and lamination—
    automotive glass production.
    
    There were 47 establishments in the flat glass industry in
    1972.  Of these, it is estimated that 34 have waste process
    water.  The plants that are contributing to effluent
    discharge produced 7,400 metric tons per day of primary
    glass and 172,700 square meters per day of automotive glass
    in 1972.
    
    Glass is produced by combining the following raw materials:
    sand  (silica), sodium carbonate, calcium carbonate,
    magnesium carbonate, and cullet (waste glass of which 25
    percent can be reused).  The float glass process is the
    major user of these materials.
    
    In primary glass production, the following processes affect
    wastewater discharge: (1) washing,  (2) batching, and
    (3) grinding and polishing.  In the production of automotive
    glass, the following processes affect wastewater discharge:
    (1) seaming,  (2) grinding,  (3) drilling,  (4) cooling, and
    (5) washing.
    
    The batching process in primary glass manufacturing brings
    together the raw materials and mixes them to a homogeneous
    consistency.
    
    The grinding and polishing process is used for plate, float,
    and tempered glass.  This process uses either a single or
    twin configuration.   (The twin configuration grinds and
    polishes simultaneously.)  The grinding part of the process
    uses a slurry of sand and water which is continuously being
    blown down in order to be recycled and classified as a
    progressively finer grinding medium is needed.  The
    polishing process uses a polishing surface of animal felt,
    and a polishing medium of water and iron oxide or cerium
    oxide slurry.  The glass is reduced 15 percent by the
    combined grinding and polishing process.
                               3-29U
    

    -------
    The washing process is used for plate glass to remove the
    slurry, and in float glass to remove the protective
    chemicals coated on the rollers which prevents the glass
    from getting marked.
    
    The cooling process utilizes water for cooling in all the
    melting tanks, the float tanks, and bathing tanks.  Water
    for cooling is also used on rollers for plate glass, to cool
    the annealing lehr, bending the lehr and in the tempering
    process.
    
    The seaming and drilling processes in automotive glass
    manufacture are basic fabrication processes that aid in
    handling and meeting product specifications.
    
    The tempering process includes heating and then rapidly
    cooling the glass.
    
    Primary glass is used for all architectural and building
    requirements and is the basic component for fabricated flat
    glass products.  Automotive glass is used primarily for
    windshields and safety glass.
    
    In 1972, a total of 222 million square meters of primary
    glass and 77 million square meters of automotive glass was
    produced.  It is estimated that plants contributing
    wastewater produced 7,400 metric tons per day of primary
    glass and 172,700 square meters per day of automotive glass.
    
    The number of flat glass plants has increased in recent
    years but plate glass plants have decreased due to the
    greater profitability of the float glass process; U. S. flat
    glass exports are not significant.  There has been a gradual
    increase in the amounts of imports, with imports comprising
    about 21 percent of total consumption.  The demand for
    tinted or colored glass for reflective architectural uses
    and for tempered glass for safety applications in buildings
    is expected to grow.  It should be noted, however, that the
    consumption of flat glass moves with the level of
    residential construction and automobile manufacturing.
    
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The major glass manufacturing
    wastes include: sand, silt, clay, grease, oil, tar, animal
    and vegetable fats, fibers, sawdust, hair sewage materials,
    phosphorus, alkaline flow (affecting pH)  from plate glass
    manufacturing and thermal pollution (t.7° C over ambient
    temperature).
    
    The main sources contributing to the total waste load come
    from the following processes in each segment of the
    industry: Float—washing; Plate—batching, grinding and
                               3-295
    

    -------
    polishing, and washing; Tempered*-seaming, grinding
    drilling, cooling and washing (wash-water is the major
    source); and Laminated—cooling, seaming, and washing.
    
    In order to define waste characteristics, the following
    parameters were used to develop effluent guidelines for
    meeting BPT and BAT: total suspended solids, oil, pH, and
    total phosphorus.
    
    Effluent limitations and standards of performance for new
    sources are no discharge for the sheet plate glass
    manufacturing subcategory and best available control
    technology for the three remaining subcategories.
    
    At the present time, the waste from about 70 percent of the
    industry is discharged to municipal sewage systems, and 20-
    30 percent of the wet process flat glass manufacturers
    discharge to municipal sewers.  The typical discharge for
    each segment is as follows; Float-138 liters per metric ton;
    Plate-US,900 liters per metric ton; Tempered-t9 liters per
    square meter: and Laminated-175 liters per sguare meter.
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  Waste treatment practices
    vary in each segment of the flat glass industry.  Some use a
    lagoon system with a polyelectrolyte or partial recycling of
    process water.  Others use no treatment or have only
    eliminated detergent in the wash water,  control methods
    include: filtration, filtration and recycle, total recycle
    with a reverse osmosis unit, coagulation sedimentation, a
    two-stage lagoon with mixing tank for proper
    polyelectrolytic dispersion, an oil absorbing diatomaceous
    earth filter and sludge dewatering by centrifugation.
    
    The guidelines for; BPT call for control and removal of total
    suspended solids (TSS), oil, pH, and total phosphorus.  BPT
    calls for the following control methods for each segment of
    the industry:
    
      •  Plate.  Two-stage lagoon with a mixing tank for proper
         polyelectrolytic dispersion.
    
      •  Float.  Cream separator type centrifuge for sludge
         dewatering, and elimination of detergent use.
    
      •  Tempered and Laminated,  coagulation/sedimentation.
    
    The BAT assesses the availability of in-process controls, as
    well as calling for additional treatment techniques.  The
    following additional treatment methods for each segment of
    the industry are:
                               3-296
    

    -------
      *  Plate.  Add a return of filter backwash to lagoon systems.
    
      •  Float.  Eliminate all detergent use and add oil absorptive
         diatomaceous earth filtration.
    
      •  Tempered.  Add oil absorptive diatomaceous earth filtration,
    
      •  Laminated.  Recycle post-lamination washing and initial hot
         water rinse, gravity separation of remaining rinse waters,
         reduce detergent usage and add oil absorptive diatomaceous
         earth filtration.
    
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
    Gianessi and Peskin (G6P)i.  This analysis was conducted in
    somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
    data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
    calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
    However, time and resource constraints prevented
    incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
    the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
    (in million 1975 dollars):
    
      Incremental BPT Investment    $2.5
      Incremental BPT 06M           $0.6
    
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
    below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
    these costs.   Principal reasons for differences between
    these cost estimates and the newer data are that these were
    changes in plant inventory estimates and that G&P considers
    plate glass plants and tempering and lamination of auto
    glass, whereas SEAS includes float glass but not plate
    glass.
      Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
      of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
      National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
      (Revised January, 1976)
                               3-297
    

    -------
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    PRESSED AND BLOWN GLASS INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and Capacities.  The effluent
    limitations guidelines for the pressed and blown glass
    manufacturing industry cover manufacturers of glass
    containers for commercial packing, bottling, home canning,
    and the manufacturers of glass and glassware, which is
    pressed, blown, or shaped from glass produced in the same
    establishment.
    
    The industry has been divided into the following
    subcategories, based upon differences in production
    processes and wastewater characteristics:
    
      •  Glass containers
    
      •  Machine-^pressed and blown glass
    
      •  Glass tubing
    
      •  Television picture tube envelopes
    
      •  Incandescent lamp envelopes-forming and frosting
    
      •  Hand-pressed and blown glass-leaded and hydrofluroic
         acid finishing, non-leaded and hydrofluoric acid
         finishing, and non-hydrofluoric acid finishing.
    
    Four manufacturing steps are common to the entire pressed
    and blown glass industry: weighing and mixing of raw
    materials, melting of raw materials, forming of molten
    glass, and annealing of formed glass products.  Further
    processing (finishing) is required for some products,
    especially television tube envelopes, incandescent lamp
    envelopes, and hand-pressed and blown glass.
    
    Sand (silica) is the major ingredient of glass and accounts
    for about 70 percent of the raw materials batch,  other
    ingredients may include soda or soda ash  (13-16 percent),
    potash, lime, lead oxide, boric oxide, alumina, magnesia,
    and iron or other coloring agents.  The usual batch also
    contains between 10 and 50 percent waste glass  (cullet).
    
    Melting is done in three types of units: continuous
    furnaces, clay pots, or day tanks.  Methods used to form
    glass include blowing, pressing, drawing, and casting.
    After the glass is formed, annealing is required to relieve
    strains that might weaken the glass or cause it to fail.
    The entire piece of glass is brought to a uniform
    temperature that is high enough to permit the release of
    internal stresses, and then it is cooled at a uniform rate
                               3-300
    

    -------
    to prevent new strains from developing; finishing steps
    include abrasive polishing, acid polishing, spraying with
    frosting solutions, grinding, cutting, acid etching, and
    glazing.
    
    In 1972, approximately 300 plants manufactured pressed and
    blown glass products in the Dnited States, and almost half
    of these manufactured glass containers.  The glass container
    industry is relatively concentrated with the eight largest
    firms producing about 80 percent of the industry's shipments
    and operating about two-thirds of the individual plants.
    Because of the special nature of their products, the
    machine-pressed and blown glass industry is also relatively
    concentrated; as are the tubing, television picture tube
    envelope, and incandescent lamp envelope industries.  On the
    other hand, the hand-pressed and blown glass industry is
    characterized by a large number of family-owned and-
    operated, single-plant companies.  Of the 16 firms in this
    industry, only four operate more than one plant.
    
    Haste Sources and Pollutants.  Water is used in the pressed
    and blown glass manufacturing industry fbr non-contact
    cooling, cullet quenching, and product rinsing following the
    various finishing operations.  Water may also be added to
    the raw materials batches for dust suppression.  Wet fume
    scrubbers used in acid polishing areas also contribute
    wastewater discharge.
    
    For the purposes of establishing effluent limitations
    guidelines, the following pollution parameters have been
    designated as significant: fluoride, ammonia, lead, oil,
    chemical oxygen demand(COD), suspended solids(SS), dissolved
    solids, temperature(heat), and pH.  These parameters are not
    present in the wastewater from every subcategory, and may be
    more significant in one subcategory than in another.
    Wastewaters from non-contact cooling, boilers, and water
    treatment are not considered process wastewaters and are not
    covered by the guidelines.
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  The pressed and blown glass
    industry is currently treating its wastewaters to reduce or
    eliminate most of the pollutants.  Oil is reduced by using
    gravity separators.  Treating for fluoride and lead involves
    adding lime, rapid mixing, flocculation, and sedimentation
    of the resulting reaction products.  Several glass container
    plants recycle non-contact cooling and cullet quench water.
    Treatment for ammonia removal is presently not practiced in
    the industry.
    
    Additional treatment systems that are applicable to the
    industry include chemical or physical methods to further
    
    
                               3-301
    

    -------
    reduce oil levels, such as high-rate filtration,
    diatomaceous earth filtration, and chemical addition or
    coagulation; additional treatment of fluorides by ion-
    exchange or activated alumina filtration; and ammonia
    removal by stream or air stripping, selective ion exchange,
    nitrification/denitrification, or break-point chlorination.
    
    Because current treatment practices in the pressed and blown
    glass industry provide wastewater pollutant concentrations
    that are already at low levels, no additional control
    technologies are proposed for most subcategofies to meet BPT
    guidelines.  The major exception is the addition of steam
    stripping to control ammonia discharges from the
    incandescent lamp envelope manufacturing subcategory.
    
    Additional technologies required for BAT and NSPS guidelines
    include segregation of non-contact cooling water from the
    cullet quench water, recycling cullet quench water,
    treatment of cullet quench water blowdown by dissolved air
    flotation and diatomaceous earth filtration, and treatment
    of finishing wastewaters by sand filtration and activated
    alumina filtration!
    
    Table 4-33-1 summarizes the control technologies recommended
    for each subcategory; as indicated, most of the plants in
    the pressed and blown glass industry already have sufficient
    operating technology to meet BPT guidelines.  In addition,
    as shown in Table 4-33-1, only about one-third of the
    approximately 300 plants covered by these guidelines
    discharge to surface waters.  The remaining plants either
    have no discharge or, as in most cases, tfiey discharge to
    municipal systems.
    
    All annualized costs are detailed in Table 4-33-2.
                               3-302
    

    -------
                           Table 4-33-1.
                      Pressed and Blown Glass
              Industry Pollution control Technologies
    Subcategories
    
    Glass Containers
    Machine-pressed S
    blown glass
    Glass tubing
    
    
    TV tube envelopes
    Incandescent lamp
    envelopes
    Hand-pressed S
    blown glass
    BPT
    
    Housekeeping
    
    
    
    Housekeeping
    
    
    
    Housekeeping
    Lime addition,
    coagulation,
    and sedimen-
    tation
    
    Steam stripping,
    lime precipi-
    tation and re-
    carbonization
    
    Batch lime pre-
    cipitation,
    coagulation,
    sedimentation
    BAT
    
    Recycle, gravity oil
    separation and
    filtration
    
    Recycle, gravity oil
    separation and
    filtration
    
    Cooling tower and
    filtration
    
    Sand filtration,
    activated alumina
    filtration
    Sand filtration,
    activated alumina
    filtration
    Sand filtration,
    activated alumina
    filtration
    NSPS are the same as BAT for all subcategories.
                               3-303
    

    -------
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    Pressed & Blown Glass
    Industry Data Summary
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    -------
    ELECTROPLATING
    
    Production Characteristics and capacities.  The
    electroplating industry is a subcategory of the metal
    finishing industry and includes establishments engaged in
    applying metallic coatings on surfaces by electrode
    position.  These coatings provide corrosion protection, wear
    or erosion resistance, antifrictional characteristics,
    lubricity, electrical conductivity, heat and light
    reflectivity, or other special surface characteristics.
    
    This analysis covers the Phase I guidelines for the
    electroplating of copper, nickel, chromium, and zinc on
    ferrous, nonferrous, and plastic materials.  Phase II
    regulations, which cover the additional metal-finishing
    operations of anodizing, buffing, and polishing, were
    promulgated too late for inclusion in this report.
    
    An electroplating process involves cleaning, electroplating,
    rinsing, and drying.  The cleaning operation comprises two
    or more steps, usually sequential treatments in an alkaline
    solution and an acid solution, to remove grease, oil, soil,
    and oxide films from the basic metal surfaces to insure good
    adhesion.  In the electroplating operation, metal ions in
    either acid, alkaline, or neutral solutions are reduced on
    the work pieces being plated, which serve as cathodes.
    Hundreds of different electroplating solutions have been
    adopted commercially, but only two or three types are
    utilized widely for a single metal or alloy.  For example,
    cyanide solutions are popular for copper, zinc, and cadmium.
    Acid sulfate solutions and non-cyanide alkaline solutions
    containing pyrophosphate or another chelating agent are also
    used.  The parts to be plated are usually immersed in the
    electroplating solutions upon racks, although small parts
    are allowed to tumble freely in open barrels.
    
    Mechanized systems have been developed for transferring both
    barrels and racks from cleaning, plating, and rinsing tanks.
    In some instances, dwell time and transfer periods are
    programmed on magnetic tape or cards for complete
    automation.
    
    Approximately 20,000 companies are engaged in metal
    finishing activities.  In over 85 percent of these
    companies, metal finishing is merely one step in a
    manufacturing process.  Because these "captive shop"
    operations are not classified, it is extremely difficult to
    obtain good information on most of the U.S. metal platers.
    Hence, this analysis addresses only independent (non-
    captive) electroplating facilities.
                               3-306
    

    -------
    Electroplating facilities vary greatly in size and
    character.  Over 70 percent of the shops have fewer than 20
    employees, while the largest shops have more than 150
    employees.  The area of the products being electroplated
    varies from less than 10 to more than 1,000 square meters
    per day.  Products being plated vary in weight from less
    than 30 grams to more than 9,000 kilograms.  Most of the
    plants perform specialized batch operations, but in some
    plant operations, continuous strip and wire are plated on a
    24-hour per day basis,  some companies have capabilities for
    electroplating 10 or 12 different metals and alloys; others
    specialize in just one or two.
    
    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  Water is used in
    electroplating operations to accomplish the following tasks:
    
      •  Rinsing of parts, racks, and equipment
    
      •  Washing equipment and washing away spills
    
      *  Washing the air in ventilation ducts
    
      •  Dumps of operating solutions
    
      •  Cooling water to cool solutions (usually reused for
         rinsing).
    
    Approximately 90 percent of the water is used in rinsing
    operations; this water is used to rinse away the films of
    processing solutions from the surface of the work pieces.
    In performing this task, the water is contaminated by the
    operating solutions and is not directly reusable.
    
    In electroplating facilities, the wastes are derived
    principally from the material plated and the operating
    solutions.  The most important wastes are made potentially
    toxic by the formation of heavy metal salts and cyanide
    salts.
    
    For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
    guidelines for copper, nickel, chromium, and zinc plating
    operations, the major wastewater constituents of polluting
    significance have been defined to be: copper, nickel,
    hexavelent chromium, total chromium, zinc, cyanide which is
    amenable to oxidation by chlorine, total cyanide, suspended
    solids  (SS), and pH.  Other wastewater constituents of
    secondary importance that are not the subject of the
    guidelines include: total dissolved solids, chemical oxygen
    demand, biochemical oxygen demand, oil and grease,
    turbidity, color and temperature.
                               3-307
    

    -------
    Control Technology and Costs.  Pollution control and
    wastewater treatment technologies for reducing the discharge
    of pollutants from copper, nickel, chromium, and zinc
    electroplating processes include both in-plant controls and
    end-of-process treatment system.  The most commonly-used
    treatment in the electroplating industry is the chemical
    method.  The rinse waters are usually segregated into these
    three streams prior to treatment:
    
      •  Those containing hexavalent chromium,
    
      •  Those containing cyanide, and
    
      •  The remainder containing water from acid dips, ackali
         cleaners, acid copper, nickel, and zinc baths, etc.
    
    The cyanide is oxidized by chlorine, and the hexavalent
    chromium is reduced to trivalent chromium with sulfur
    dioxide or other reducing agents.  The three streams are
    then combined, and the metal hydroxides are precipitated by
    adjusting the pH through chemical addition.  The hydroxides
    are allowed to settle out, often with the help of
    coagulating agents, and the sludge is hauled to a lagoon or
    filtered and used as land fill.  These chemical facilities
    may be engineered for batch or continuous operations.
    
    Water conservation can be accomplished by: in-plant process
    modifications and materials substitutions requiring little
    capital or new equipment  (substituting low concentration
    electroplating solutions for high concentration baths or the
    use of noncyanide solutions); good housekeeping practices;
    reducing the amount of rinse water lost when parts are
    removed from the solution; and reducing the volume of rinse
    water used by installing counterflow rinses, adding wetting
    agents, and installing air or ultrasonic agitation.
    Significant amounts of water can also be conserved by using
    advanced treatment methods, such as ion exchange,
    evaporative recovery, or reverse osmosis to treat and
    recycle in-process waters.  Other more experimental in-
    process treatment methods include freezing, electrodialysis,
    ion-flotation, and electrolytic stripping.  One system
    currently in operation has achieved zero discharge of
    pollutants through the use of reverse osmosis followed by
    evaporation and distillation of the concentrated waste
    stream from the reverse osmosis unit.
    
    BPT for the electroplating industry is based upon the use of
    chemical methods of treatment of the wastewater at the end
    of the process controls to conserve rinse water and reduce
    the amount of treated water discharged.  NSPS are based upon
    the above technology plus the utilization of the best multi-
                               3-308
    

    -------
    tank rinsing practices after each process.  Maximum use of
    combinations of evaporative, reverse osmosis, and ion
    exchange systems for in-process control are also
    recommended.  BAT is the use of in-process and end-of-
    process control and treatment to achieve no discharge of
    pollutants.
    
    An informal survey suggests that substantial amounts of
    waste treatment equipment are currently installed in metal
    finishing plants.  These data indicate that most
    electroplating establishments have at least some of the BPT
    equipment already in place.  Some of this will have to be
    upgraded to satisfy BPT requirements, but a total investment
    in new technology will not be necessary.  In addition, the
    majority of electroplaters discharge their wastewaters to
    municipal sewage systems.
    
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
    Gianessi and Peskin (G&P).l This analysis was conducted in
    somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
    data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
    calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
    However, time and resource constraints prevented
    incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
    the SEAS model procedure.  The G&P estimates are as follows
    (in million 1975 dollars):
    
                                  Total    Phase I    Phase II
    
      Incremental BPT Investment 1,991.1  1,794.1       200.
         Direct Discharging        516.6    470,6        46.1
         Pretreating             1,447.5  1,323.5       154.0
    
      Incremental BPT O&M          856.5    816.3        40.3
         Direct Discharging        223.6    215.2         8.4
         Pretreating               633.0    601.1        31.9
    
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
    below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
    these costs.  SEAS addressed only those costs associated
    with Phase I production.  As noted in the industry
    description, SEAS addresses only independent electroplating
    facilities, and does not calculate costs for captive shops,
    as does G&P.  Growth rate assumptions also affect the
    forecasts.
                               3-309
    

    -------
    1 Gianessi,  L. P. and H. M.  Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
      of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
      National Bureau of Economic Research, December 1975.
      {Revised January 1976)
                               3-310
    

    -------
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                   STEAM ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
    
                   Production Characteristics and Capacities.   The electric
                   utility industry is composed of three types of companies:
                   those owned by investors, those owned by the public
                   (Federal,  state or local governments),  and those owned by
                   cooperatives.   Companies owned by the public or by
                   cooperatives are engaged primarily in the distribution of
                   electricity; companies owned by investors are engaged in
                   generation, transmission, and distribution.
    
                   The 500 investor-owned companies serve fewer separate
                   electrical systems than cooperatives or publically-owned
                   companies, but they account for most of the generating
                   capacity and generate most of the electricity.  In 1973,
                   investor-owned companies had 78 percent of the generating
                   capacity;  publically-owned companies had 20 percent,  and
                   cooperatives had 2 percent.
    
                   The steam electric power industry has been divided into
                   three sub-categories according to size and age of generating
                   plants, and a fourth based on area; a summary of the
                   subcategories follows:
    
                                       t
                                       Generation Capacity
                   Subcategory         (megawatts)              Date Initial Operation1
    
                   Generating Unit            > 25             After 1/1/71
                                              >500             After 1/1/70
    
                   Small Unit          ,       < 25
    
                   Old Unit                   >500             On or before 1/1/70
                                              <500             On or before 1/1/71
    
                   Area Runoff               All Sizes
    
    
                   »Final effluent guidelines were issued on October 8,  1974,
                   in the Federal Register (39FR36186).  These guidelines
                   exempt all units placed into service before 1970 from
                   meeting limitations on the discharge of heat.
    
    
                   The generating capacity of the industry may be further
                   classified by the type of fuel employed to drive the
                   generator.  AS shown in Table 1-35-1,  coal is the
                   predominant fuel used.  In recent years, there has been a
                   shift from coal to oil, principally because state and local
    
    
                                              3-313
    .
    

    -------
    environmental restrictions required the use of low sulfur
    fuels, a requirement more easily met by oil then coal.   More
    recently, the increasing prices of foreign crude oil have
    caused a reversal of this trend as utilities return to  lower
    priced coal as their fuel.
                               3-31U
    

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    Waste Sources and Pollutants.  The major waste product from
    electric power generation is heat.  Depending on the type of
    fuel consumed, substantial quantities of metal cleaning
    wastes, water treatment wastes, miscellaneous housekeeping
    wastes, bottom ash and fly ash may also be produced.  Waste
    cooling water may contain corrosion inhibitors and biocides,
    principally chlorine.
    
    The main sources contributing to the total waste load come
    from both power generation and housekeeping: cooling water
    and cooling water blowdown, boiler blowdown, metal cleaning
    wastes, ash transport water, low volume wastes, and
    construction and storage runoff.
    
    In order to define waste characteristics, the following
    parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting BPT
    and BAT: (1) total suspended solids, (2) oil and grease,
    (3) free available chlorine, (H) total copper,  (5) total
    iron,  (6) zinc,  (7) chromium,  (8) phosphorous,  (9) other
    corrosion inhibitors,  (10) polychlorobiphenyls  (PBC),
    (11) pH, and  (12) heat.
    
    Specific waste loads have not been characterized, but they
    may be expected to vary with the type of fuel:
    
       •  Coal burning plants produce the heaviest burden of
         wastes because of the large amounts of fly ash and
         bottom ash produced.  Pollutants are caused by runoff
         from coal storage areas, boiled blowdown, metal
         cleaning wastes, once-through cooling water or cooling
         water blowdown, and low volume wastes, including wet
         scrubber wastes, water treatment wastes, laboratory and
         sampling wastes, and housekeeping wastes, such as pump
         seal oil.
    
       •  Oil burning plants generate no bottom ash and much less
         fly ash then coal burning plants.  Otherwise, the
         wastes are about the same except that there are
         substantial quantities of oily water from oil use and
         storage, but no runoff from coal storage.
    
       •  Gas burning plants produce almost no ash and require no
         air pollution equipment for control of particulates and
         sulfur dioxide.  Otherwise, the wastes are the same as
         for coal and oil except that there is no waste stream
         associated with fuel storage, and none associated with
         maintenance cleaning of the stack.
    
       •  Nuclear plants produce no ash or fuel storage waste
         streams, and metal cleaning wastes are limited to the
         cooling tower basin and generator tubes.  Otherwise,
                                3-316
    

    -------
    
         the wastewaters are similar -to those of fossil fuel
         plants.  Radioactive wastes are not covered in effluent
         guidelines.
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  Wastewater treatment
    generally has not been practiced in the steam electric power
    industry; however, based on assumptions concerning the
    nature of the wastestreams, the treatment technology is
    readily projected.
    
      •  Cooling Water.  Where unlimited discharge of heated
         water is permitted, there is no requirement for
         treatment.  Where recirculating cooling water systems
         are in use, it will be unnecessary to remove corrosion
         inhibitors from the blowdown to meet 1983 criteria.
         This can be achieved by treatment with sulfur dioxide
         to reduce hexavalent chromium followed by chemical
         precipitation of heavy metals and phosphate, and
         filtration.  Since new source performance standards
         permit no discharge of corrosion inhibitors, it will be
         necessary to construct cooling facilities of corrosion-
         inhibiting materials.
    
      •  Metal Cleaning Wastes and Boiler Blowdown.  Metal
         cleaning wastes are generated on an intermittent basis.
         Treatment of this stream, as well as the boiler
         blowdown stream, can be achieved by equalization,
         chemical precipitation of heavy metals, and filtration.
         Where chemical treatment of cooling waters blowdown is
         necessary, these streams can be combined for treatment.
    
      •  Ash Transport Water and Low Volume Wastes.  The
         blowdown from recirculating ash transport water can be
         treated to meet all standards by neutralization, oil
         separation, and clarification.  Where discharge of
         pollutants from fly ash transport is prohibited, it
         will be necessary to resort to dry removal methods.
         Low volume wastes are treated by equalization,
         neutralization, oil separation, and clarification.
         They may be combined with the blowdown from ash
         transport water for treatment.
    
      •  Area Runoff.  Area runoff may be treated by
         impoundment, lime addition for pH control, and
         discharge of the neutral, settled water.
                               3-317
    

    -------
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
    provided to the Agency by Temple, Baker 6 Sloane, Inc.,
    (TBS)1.  This analysis was conducted in somewhat greater
    depth than, and subsequent to the general data gathering
    efforts associated with the SEAS univorm cost calculation
    procedure, and is considered to be more precise.  However,
    time and resource constraints prevented incorporating these
    costs into the scenario analyses using the SEAS model
    procedure.  The TBS estimates are as follows (in million
    1975 dollars):•
      Incremental
      Incremental
    Investment (1974-1983)
    OSM (1974-1983)
    4,500
    2,100
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculations are presented
    in Table 4-35-1  (with capital expenditures during the period
    1974-1983 equal to 5.2 billion dollars).  The SEAS valuejs
    were based upon the EPA report Economic Analysis of    ''**'
    Efficient Guidelines, Steam Electric Plants  (December t.974) .
    Costs for enhancement were not estimated in this earlier
    report, and thus are not included in the SEAS projections.
    Two significant modifications are included in the revised
    baseline estimates for the electric utility industry.  ||
    First, capital expenditures requirements have declined ^
    primarily because reduced growth for the industry means
    fewer new units will be built than had previously been
    expected.  The OGM costs have risen due to the increased
    fuel costs acclerating the cost of making up the energy
    penalties associated with closed-cycle cooling.  The net
    change from the results associated with the 1974 report has
    been approximately a seventeen percent reduction in
    kilowatts covered by the relatively expensive thermal
    guidelines, a twelve percent reduction in capital
    expenditure impacts and a substantial increase in operations
    and maintenance expenses.
    1 "Economic and Financial Impacts of EPA's Air and Water
      Pollution Controls on the Electric Utility Industry,"
      Temple, Barker S Sloane, Inc., May 1976.
                               3-318
    

    -------
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    SOAP AND DETERGENT INDUSTRY
    
    Production Characteristics and Capacities.  Data from the
    Census of Manufacturers^ 1967, identify 668 establishments
    in the industry.  In spite of this large number, production
    is highly-concentrated in the industry with 12
    establishments accounting for «*7 percent of the industry's
    value-added, and 28 establishments accounting for 73 percent
    of value-added.  The "big three" companies. Proctor and
    Gamble, Lever Brothers, and Colgate-Palmolive, dominate the
    package detergent industry with 80-85 percent of the market.
    
    The soap and detergent industry establishments are engaged
    in the manufacture of soap, synthetic organic detergents,
    inorganic alkaline detergents, or any combination of these
    processes.  Crude and refined glycerine production from
    vegetable and animal fats and oils is also accomplished by
    firms in the industry.  In popular use, the term "soap"
    refers to those cleaning agents based primarily on natural
    fat.  The term "detergent" is generally restricted to
    cleaning compounds derived largely from petrochemicals.
    Detergents can be formulated with entirely different organic
    and inorganic chemicals to exhibit the same cleaning power
    or have the same biodegradability.
    
    Basic raw materials used in the manufacture of soap come
    from chemical and agricultural processors and include
    caustic soap, fats, and oils.  Raw materials for detergents
    are supplied mostly from large chemical and petrochemical
    companies and consist primarily of detergent alkylate,
    alcohols, and surfactants.
    
    Soaps and detergents are produced with a variety of
    manufacturing processes.  In the traditional'batch-kettle
    process of manufacturing soap, a mixture of refined and
    bleached fats, oils, caustic soda, and salt is alternatively
    boiled, settled, and drained of lye, etc., over a period
    from a to 6 days.  Another process first converts the fats
    and oils to fatty acids, then mixes these with caustic soda,
    soda ash, and salt to produce soap; this "fatty acid
    neutralization" process is faster and produces less
    wastewater.
    
    Detergents customarily consist of two main components, the
    surfactant or active ingredient, and the builder which
    performs many functions including buffering the pH and soil
    dispersion.  Surfactants, usually alcohol sulfate or alkyl
    benzene sulfonate, are produced from a variety of processes
    in which alcohols, alkyl benzene and/or ethoxylates are
    combined in a reactor with sulfur compounds, usually sulfur
    
    
                               3-321
    

    -------
    trioxide.  The resultant products are then neutralized and
    blended with the requisite builders and additives to produce
    the desired detergent.
    
    waste sources and Pollutants.  Waste loads from the
    different soap and detergent manufacturing processes vary
    considerably.  Some processes are completely dry and produce
    no wastewaters.  The major pollution sources from other
    processes are leaks and spills, washout waters, scrubber
    water from air pollution control equipment, barometric
    condensate, and cooling tower blowdown.  Wash and
    wastewaters produced by some of the processes result in some
    very strong pollutants, such as sewer lyes, salt brine,
    acids, glycerine foots, and spent catalysts.
    
    Pollutants covered by the effluent limitations guidelines
    include BODS, COD, suspended solids, surfactants, oil and
    grease, and~pH.
    
    Control Technology and Costs.  Almost all  (98 percent) of
    the plants in the soap and detergent industry discharge
    their wastewater into municipal treatment systems.  This
    leaves fewer than a dozen plants which are point-source
    dischargers into navigable waters.  Of these, only one has a
    complete primary-secondary treatment system.  Several plants
    have aerated or non-aerated lagoons.
    
    The major pollutants and the treatment methods usually
    employed to handle them are as follows:
                               3-322
    

    -------
         Pollutants
    Treatments
         Oil and grease
         Suspended solids
         Dispersed organics
    1. Gravity separation
    2. Coagulation and sedimentation
    3. Carbon absorption
    U. Mixed-media filtration
    5. Flotation
    
    1. Plain sedimentation
    2. Coagulation and sedimentation
    3. Mixed-media filtration
    
    1. Bioconversion (i.e., aerated
          lagoons, extended aeration,
          activated sludge, contact
          stabilization, trickling
          filters)
    2. Carbon absorption
    
    1. Reverse osmosis
    2. Ion exchange
    3. Sedimentation
    1. Evaporation
    
    1. Neutralization
    
    1. Digestion
    2. Incineration
    3. Lagooninq
    4. Thickening
    5. Centrifuging
    6. Wet oxidation
    7. Vacuum filtration
         Source:  EPA Development Document, April 1974, p.96.
    Probably the largest reductions in the pollution load from
    this industry can be made through lower process water usage.
    One of the biggest improvements would be either changing the
    operating techniques associated with the barometric
    condensers or replacing them entirely with surface
    condensers.  Large reductions in water usage in the
    manufacture of liquid detergents could be achieved through
    the installation of additional water recycling, and by the
    use of air rather than water to blow out filling lines.
    
    BPT guidelines call for plants to adopt good housekeeping
    procedures, adopt recycling where appropriate, and install
    biological secondary treatment  (bioconversion) .  BAT
    guidelines assume improvement in manufacturing processes
         Dissolved solids
             (inorganic)
         Acidity or alkalinity
    
         Sludge disposal
                               3-323
    

    -------
    such as the replacement of barometric condensers by surface
    condensers, the installation of tandem-chilled water
    scrubbers  (for spray-dried detergents), and the use of a
    batch counter-cur rent process in air-SO_3 sulfation and
    sulfonation.  In addition, improvements in end-of-pipe
    treatment are expected including the addition of sand or
    mixed-media filtration or the installation of a two-stage,
    activated sludge process.  New source performance standards
    are the same as BAT for most product subcategories.
    Improvements over BAT are expected where the installation of
    new, lower-polluting processes, such as continuous processes
    instead of batch processes, is possible.
    
    Since approximately 90 percent of the soap and detergent
    manufacturers discharge into municipal sewers, the total
    cost to the industry of meeting these guidelines is low.
    Annualized control costs and industry statistics are
    detailed in Table 4-36-1.
    
    The most recent analysis of costs for this sector is that of
    Gianessi and Peskin (G&P).l This analysis was conducted in
    somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
    data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
    calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
    However, time and resource constraints prevented
    incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
    the SEAS model procedure.  The soap and detergent G6P
    estimates are as follows  (in 1975 dollars) :
      Incremental BPT Investment
      Incremental BPT O&M
    7.0
    1.1
    Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculations are presented
    below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
    these costs.  The principal reason for the difference in the
    estimates is that GSP assumes that 95 percent of total
    process water flow is discharged to municipalities, and that
    77 percent of the plants incur pretreatment costs, being
    detergent plants.  SEAS assumes no pretreatment costs, the
    only costs to the industry being municipal charges.  There
    is also a substantial difference in growth assumptions about
    the industry.  The municipal charges listed by GSP for soaps
    and detergents is 2».7 million dollars, as compared to the
    SEAS estimate for Municipal Investment Recovery and User
    Charges, summing to 28.0 million dollars over a comparable
    period.
                               3-324
    

    -------
    Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The cost to Industries
    of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
    National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
    (Revised January 1976)
                             3-325
    

    -------
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    Soap and Detergent
    Industry Data Summary
    1977 1983 1985
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    -------
                            Section Four
    
          A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF POLLUTION CONTROL:
            IMPACT MEASUREMENT UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
    This Section presents national- and sectoral-level estimates
    of the key economic, environmental, and energy impacts of
    Federal pollution control laws and regulations.  These
    impacts are examined under different sets of basic
    assumptions about economic activity levels and energy
    conservation policies and programs.  The period of 1971
    through 1985 is evaluated since it includes the time frame
    during which the Federally mandated environmental policies
    will be put into effect.  The analysis is conducted by
    running alternative scenarios through a computerized system
    for impact estimation and analysis; the computer system used
    is the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS).
    
    The magnitude and interrelationships of estimated relative
    impacts are forecast based upon the assumptions made
    explicit in each scenario.  The basic structure of the
    economy, and the fiscal policies which help guide it, are
    maintained for each specific run of the model system.
    Changes in these and other basic assumptions are what
    constitute a specific scenario.
    
    All industrial pollution control cost functions utilized in
    this section are those used in the original SEAS
    calculations.  They have not been modified by the more
    recent data which accompany SEAS cost estimates in Sections
    2 and 3, and which have been included in nationally
    aggregated cost totals presented elsewhere in the report.
    
    This situation has little>eT?QCt on the analyses in this
    section, since the principle objective is to indicate the
    relative impacts of potential/alternative future conditions
    on the national pollution control costs and residual
    discharges, and not to precisely define the pollution
    control costs for particular sectors of the economy.
    

    -------
    chapter 1
    Impact Estimation Using
    The Strategic Environmental
    Assessment System (SEAS)
    In several previous studies and reports, there have been
    estimates made of the projected impacts on the national
    economy of pollution abatement programs.  The Environmental
    Protection Agency (e.g., see The Economics of Clean Water-
    1973 and The Economic Impact of the Federal Environmental
    Program-197H).t the council on Environmental Quality (Annual
    Reports), the U. S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, and
    other agencies have utilized a variety of economic models to
    project impacts upon overall price inflation and levels of
    economic activity.  These models have included procedures
    developed either by the agencies themselves or by private
    groups, such as Chase Econometrics Associates, the Brcokings
    Institute, and Data Resources Incorporated.  For the most
    part, this previous work has led to forecasts indicating
    that the inflationary influences of pollution abatement
    programs would be comparatively minor relative to the
    presence of numerous other inflationary influences, and that
    the effects on national income would also be relatively
    minor.
    
    several of the previous studies of pollution abatement
    impacts have also devoted considerable attention to
    evaluating the benefits and costs attributable to pollution
    abatement programs.  The purpose of such benefit/cost
    analyses has been to assess whether the nation would receive
    economic and environmental benefits greater than the
    expenditures required to achieve them.
    
    The work described in this section departs from these
    previous efforts in three important ways:
    
      •  First, no attempt is made to develop a single set of
         impact projections; rather, impacts are measured
         relative to different sets of general socioeconomic
         assumptions of future conditions;
    
      •  Second, the analysis focuses on how these impacts are
         differentially affected by the various basic
         assumptions about future economic and pollution control
         activities and energy policy, rather than their
         absolute levels  (although these are also presented);
    
      •  Third, control costs and resultant pollution estimates
         are developed at a greater level of industrial detail
    

    -------
         and the effect of cost feedbacks by sector are
         included.  (Feedbacks are purchases made for pollution
         control implementation and operation that increase
         purchases from sectors that produce such items.)
    
    
    The present imprecise state of knowledge regarding the
    evaluation of future benefits makes any attempt to compile a
    national aggregate figure for benefits subject to large
    uncertainties.  As a substitute approach, consequences of
    pollution abatement programs are analyzed through tradeoffs
    among the various costs and impacts of achieving legislated
    Federal control objectives.
    
    The general procedure used for tradeoff analysis is as
    follows:
    
      1, Select a consistent set of general economic,
         environmental, demographic and resource-energy
         assumptions;
    
      2. Calculate a set of forecasts of the economy, industry
         outputs, environmental residuals and energy usage given
         that specific industry environmental controls are not
         increased beyond those present in 1971.
    
      3. Calculate the same forecasts, given that environmental
         controls, costs, and equipment purchases are
         superimposed on the original economic structure as
         necessary to comply with Federal pollution control
         legislation.
    
      ft. compare the differences in forecasts between the
         abatement case and the non-abatement case for national
         level statistics and for industry-detailed statistics.
    
    This procedure was performed for three alternative sets of
    assumptions, plus one variation on environmental controls
    and costs.  Steps 1 and 3 draw on the data provided in
    Sections Two and Three of this report.  The forecasts
    required in steps 2 and 3 are derived from operation of SEAS
    using these data.   Step 4, the impact analysis, is a
    quantitative analysis of the SEAS simulation results for
    each scenario to determine impacts upon environmental
    pollution, pollution control costs, and economic and
    resource usage statistics.  (See Appendix A for a brief
    description of the SEAS system used for this application.)
                                4-3
    

    -------
    Chapter 2
    Scenario Assumptions
    
    
    Six major scenarios were constructed to develop impact
    estimates through 1985 for alternative sets of assumptions
    about the future.  The six scenarios are divided into three
    pairs, with each pair representing a predefined "case" of
    future economic and energy-consumption conditions.  The
    three cases selected for this study are a Reference Case, a
    Low Productivity Case, and an Energy Conservation Case.
    
    A "non-abatement" scenario and an "abatement" or
    "compliance" scenario were run to provide the two
    alternative forecasts for each case, thereby showing the
    incremental impacts of pollution control.  Each forecast
    provides annual projections through 1985 of major
    macroeconomic and demographic variables, industrial outputs,
    energy usage, domestic demand for virgin stocks, recycling
    levels, transportation demand, and environmental pollution
    levels.  The first, or non-abatement scenario, estimates the
    value of these variables in the absence of Federal pollution
    control legislation after 1970.  It assumes that no
    incremental expenditures are made by industries, utilities,
    and municipalities to improve pollution control beyond
    processes in place in 1971, and that all new industrial
    facilities will control pollution to the same extent as that
    practiced in 1971.  It also assumes that Federal
    expenditures do not include any additional subsidies for
    pollution control past 1971.  The non-abatement scenario,
    however, does allow for pollution reductions resulting from
    switching to new process technologies which would have
    occurred without Federal legislation.
    
    The second or abatement scenario in each pair assumes that
    sufficient abatement expenditures are made to bring air and
    water pollution from industry, utility, municipal, and
    mobile sources into full compliance with Federal statutes.
    It also provides for additional Federal expenditures to
    cover the cost of pollution abatement at Federal plants and
    the cost of other Federally-sponsored pollution control
    programs.  The abatement scenarios provide estimates of the
    incremental costs of pollution control through 1985, in
    addition to estimates of the same variables forecast in the
    non-abatement scenarios.
    
    The six scenarios run for the three cases are summarized
    below:
    

    -------
    Case
    Reference
    
    Low
    Productivity
    
    Energy
    Conservation
    Non-Abatemeht
    Scenarios (Without
    incremental Control
    Costs)
       Scenario 1
    
    
       Scenario 3
    
    
       Scenario 5
    Abatement Scenarios
    (With Incremental
    control Costs)
       Scenario 2
    
    
       Scenario 4
    
    
       Scenario 6
    The following names are used in the remainder of this
    Section to identify each scenario:
    
      Scenario 1  -  The Reference Scenario
    
      Scenario 2  -  The Reference Abatement Scenario
    
      Scenario 3  -  The Low Productivity scenario
    
      Scenario 4  -  The Low Productivity Abatement Scenario
    
      scenario 5  -  The Energy scenario
    
      Scenario 6  -  The Energy Abatement Scenario
    
    
    The six scenarios were produced in the sequence shown in
    Figure 1.  This sequence is designed to permit a comparative
    analysis of the relative impacts and tradeoffs between
    logical scenario pairs.  Certain pairs are compared to
    analyze the consequences of pollution control under the
    conditions assumed for each case:  (1,2), (3,4) and (5,6).
    Other pairs provide an analysis of the impacts of the
    assumptions themselves, both in the absence of incremental
    abatement costs: (1,3)  and (1,5); and with these costs
    applied: (2,4) and (2,6).
                                4-5
    

    -------
          Figure  1.
    Scenario  Run Sequence
    KEY:
                                      - SINGLE SCENARIO RUN
    
                                         SCENARIO COMPARISON RUN
                        SI - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
                        52 - THE REFERENCE ABATEMENT SCENARIO
                        S3 - THE LOW PRODUCTIVITY SCENARIO
                        S4 - THE LOW PRODUCTIVITY ABATEMENT SCENARIO
                        S$ - THE ENERGY SCENARIO
                        S6 - THE ENERGY ABATEMENT SCENARIO
               0-6
    

    -------
    The objective in comparing the economic, environmental, and
    energy consequences of two scenarios is not to claim that
    one is better or more realistic than the other, but to
    develop an analysis that will provide meaningful abatement
    cost forecasts for a range of economic and energy
    projections.  Examples of the kind of analysis afforded by
    constrasting scenario cases is presented below:
    
      •  The Reference Case vs. The Low Productivity Case - The
         two Reference Case scenarios call for the U.S. economy
         to approach full employment in the early 1980's along a
         relatively high productivity, high growth supply-
         oriented path.  The alternative Low Productivity Case
         scenarios reflect a lower productivity and growth
         profile.  By comparing first the Low Productivity
         Scenario with the Reference Scenario, and then the Low
         Productivity Abatement Scenario with both the Low
         Productivity Scenario and the Reference Abatement
         Scenario, one can analyze the economic, environmental,
         and energy consequences of implementing pollution
         controls with alternative labor-productivity
         conditions.  Such an analysis affords insights into the
         differences in abatement cost impacts arising from two
         relatively realistic, but potentially very different,
         economic futures.  By 1985, the difference in GNP due
         to these alternative productivity conditions is about
         12 percent.
    
      •  The Reference Case vs. The Energy Conservation Case -
         The Reference Case scenarios contain a number of basic
         energy conservation policy measures.  The alternative
         Energy Conservation Case scenarios provide for an even
         more stringent set of energy conservation policies and
         programs.  A comparison of the Energy Scenario with the
         Reference Scenario, followed by comparisons of the
         Energy Abatement Scenario with the Energy Scenario and
         the Reference Abatement Scenario, affords insight into
         the differences in the potential economic,
         environmental, and energy consequences of legislated
         pollution controls under a range of energy consumption
         assumptions.
    
    The detailed assumptions used to construct the Reference and
    Reference Abatement Scenarios are presented in Appendix B
    along with the changes in those assumptions made for the Low
    Productivity and the Energy Conservation Cases.
                                U-7
    

    -------
    Chapter 3
    Macro-Analysis Results
    Results from the six SEAS scenario runs were subjected to
    both macro- and sector-level analyses of the estimated
    economic, environmental, and energy consequences of
    pollution control.  The following discussion presents the
    macro-level findings, beginning with the Reference Scenario
    and proceeding through the selected scenarios and scenario
    comparisons.  In addition. Appendix C presents an analysis
    of the Municipal scenario, a variant of the Reference
    Abatement Scenario that assumes a continuing appropriation
    of $7 billion a year for municipal sewage treatment
    facilities through the 1976-1985 decade.
    
    A summary of the major results from the SEAS scenarios is
    presented in Table 1.  These results show that, over the
    decade 1976-85, the total cost of complying with Federal air
    and water pollution control legislation constitutes a
    relatively small portion of the decade's cumulative gross
    national product  (GNP).  Total decade abatement costs, as a
    percentage of GNP, range from 2.09 percent for the Reference
    Case to 2.25 percent for the Reference Case variant
    identified above as the Municipal Scenario.
    
    Table 1 indicates a fairly constant increase in energy use
    by 1985 of 4.2 to 4.9 quadrillion Btu1s resulting from the
    addition of pollution abatement practices in each of the
    four abatement scenarios.  It also shows the reduction in
    net residuals  (residuals discharged to the environment
    either before or after treatment)  achieved by 1985 as a
    percentage of the Reference Scenario forecasts for each of
    five air and four Water pollutants.  In general, the
    greatest abatement (reduction of residuals released to the
    carrier medium) is attained in the Low Productivity Case,
    except for the lower amounts of biochemical oxygen demand
    (BOD), suspended solids, and nutrients are achieved in the
    Municipal Scenario.
    
    The annual composition of detailed data on the economy,
    energy use, resource demand, pollutant residuals, and
    abatement costs are presented in the individual scenario
    analyses which follow.
                                4-8
    

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                       THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
    
    The Reference Scenario, which acts as the baseline for all
    subsequent projections, includes the general forecast
    assumptions described below.  (See Appendix B for a detailed
    discussion of these assumptions.)
    
      1. High productivity and government policy to achieve a
         full-supply labor force economy by the mid-1980s will
         produce a 1985 GNP of $2.36 trillion (1975 constant
         dollars) with an unemployment rate of *».4 percent for a
         projected labor force of 107.7 million civilian
         workers.
    
      2. No municipal or industrial process will increase its
         pollution control treatment efficiency levels above
         those in use during 1971.
    
      3. Energy usage and conservation will be consistent with
         energy forecasts of the $7.00/barrel "Business-as-usual
         Without Conservation" scenario of Project independence,
         with an aggregate energy requirement of 109 quadrillion
         Btu's in 1985.
    
    Based on these assumptions, the Reference scenario forecast
    was projected over the decade 1976-85.  Some general
    statistics that characterize the baseline projections appear
    in Table 2.
    
    The picture of the national economy for this baseline is one
    in which the economy will gradually grow out of the 1975
    recession to achieve an unemployment rate of l.ft percent by
    1985.  GNP grows at a 6.5 percent rate between the years
    1975-80 and at a t.O percent rate between 1981-85.
    
    Over the decade, the personal consumption expenditures and
    equipment investment components of the GNP show greater
    growth rates than the overall GNP growth rate.  Non-Federal
    government expenditures increase at rates well ahead of the
    increases in the exogenously set Federal expenditures level
    (ft.tj percent annual increase compared to 1.6 percent).
    
    Total industrial output grows at a rate somewhat greater
    than GNP with the sectors related to agriculture and mining
    showing the slowest rates of growth, manufacturing sectors
    growing at a rate slightly less than that for total output,
    and the sectors related to services, transportation,  >
    communications, and electric utilities exhibiting the
    highest growth rates.  The slowdown in the growth rate for
    the GNP in the years 1980-85 as the country catches up from
                                -10
    

    -------
    the downturn of the early seventies is also reflected in
    decreasing rates for most of these industrial output growth
    rates.
    
    The energy requirement to support this economic pattern
    reflects a growing demand for electricity.  By 1985, coal
    and nuclear sources will account for 63 percent of all
    energy used in electrical generation, with coal accounting
    for 33 percent.  Growth in natural gas, petroleum and coal
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    Resource demand projections for the Reference Scenario
    indicate increasing requirements for virgin ore resources.
    For example, U.S. demand for iron ore increases at an
    average annual rate of slightly over 2 percent per year over
    the period, with higher rates during the 1970 decade.
    Similar demand patterns, but with slightly higher rates of
    increase, are noted for both aluminum and copper ores.  This
    usage reflects the growth pattern shown in Table 2 for total
    output, with the annual growth rates of the late 1970*s two
    times or more the rates for the early 1980fs.  The patterns
    noted for these metal ores are also found in the demand
    statistics for recycling of paper/paperboard, aluminum and
    ferrous metals.  Demand for recycled aluminum is
    particularly heavy over the decade, averaging about 8
    percent growth per year.
    
    As a final set of characterizations of the Reference
    Scenario, the following patterns can be noted for annual
    levels of air and water residuals released to the
    environment.
    
    First, the annual growth rates for all air- and water-borne
    residuals are less than the economic growth rate and are
    less than the manufacturing output growth rate.  Thus, even
    with no improved treatment efficiencies past 1971, relative
    improvement in residuals per dollar of output produced are
    noted for all major residuals categories due to increasing
    use of cleaner production technologies.  However, the change
    is relatively small, and the absolute levels of annual
    residual loads continue to increase for all air and water
    residual categories throughout the decade.
    
    Second, the decade projections also show that air residuals
    are increasing at rates greater than the water residuals.
    To provide greater detail on growth rates by generation
    source (i.e., industrial, municipal, transportation, or
    electric utilities), Figures 1 and 2 are provided for
    evaluation and comparison.  The data in Figures 1 and 2
    demonstrate that although the growth rates of air residuals
    connected with mobile sources are greater than those for
    stationary sources, the growth rate of air residuals from
    any source is consistently higher than the growth rate of
    water residuals.
    
    Finally, Table 3 presents the change in stationary source
    treatment efficiencies from 1975 through 1985.  These
    efficiencies are calculated as gross residuals less net
    residuals divided by gross residuals, where:
                               a-15
    

    -------
    Gross residuals equal the residuals that would occur if
    there were no end-of-process treatment of discharges.
    
    Net residuals equal the residuals that occur due to
    end-of-process treatment of discharges by each
    industrial process.
                          0-16
    

    -------
                             Figure  1.
    Trends  in  Air Residuals in Reference  Scenario
     410-
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                                                                               TRANSPORTATION
                               1-17
    

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                            Figure 2.
    Trends in Water Residuals in Reference Scenario(1971-1985)
                          o u
                              4-18
    

    -------
    transferred from idle resources, thus resulting in a net
    benefit to the economy.  From 1980-85 however, the required
    level of labor needed for pollution abatement is in excess
    of the amount available, and so labor resources must be
    taken away from other competing needs.  Even in these years,
    the fact that there are some unemployed resources before
    abatement controls were mandated means that the GNP
    increases in all years.  Among the industries required to
    implement abatement technologies, those that supply
    abatement equipment and materials are impacted at various
    levels.  Although all supplying industries are required to
    shift revenues away from production to pollution control in
    their processes, some receive enough orders from other
    industries to offset or more than offset the intra-industry
    shifts.  These industries are net gainers (i.e., platinum),
    while remaining industries are net losers (i.e.,
    agriculture).
                               1-21
    

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    Table 5 provides a comparison of a number of scenario
    statistics from the Reference Abatement Scenario with the
    same values developed in the Reference Scenario for each of
    five years.  (This comparison uses the Reference Scenario as
    a normalizing base, i.e. (S2-S1)/S1.)   Table 6 presents
    pollution control costs by type throughout the decade as a
    percent of GNP.
    
    When looked at in comparative terms, the costs of pollution
    control are relatively small for the Reference Abatement
    Scenario.  Both GNP, as noted earlier, and the output of
    total goods and services increase throughout the decade.
    Moreover, the introduction of these controls (given the
    assumptions stated) is favorable for most factors of final
    demand, such as Federal expenditures and investment.
    Further, the change in production processes and the shift in
    the mix of goods and services produced eventually results in
    a lesser requirement for some of our natural resources, with
    paper and iron ore being noticeable examples by 1985.
    However, during the phase of major new capital development
     (period to 1980), these same resources (and others) actually
    are used at higher rates, particularly during the early part
    of this time period.  Finally, results in the reduction of
    the air and water residuals released to the environment are
    reduced.  Except for nitrogen oxides  (-8.66 percent),
    nutrients  (-19.51 percent), and dissolved solids (-37.72
    percent)f these reductions are all greater than 60 percent.
    Thus, over half of most residuals released to the
    environment without pollution control are captured in the
    Reference Abatement Scenario.
                               4-25
    

    -------
                                      Table 5.
           Comparison of the Macro-Statistics  of the Reference
        Abatement  Scenario (S2)  and the  Reference Scenario  (S1)
                                [ (S2-S1)/S1 in %]
    Statistic
    
    Gross National Product
    Disposable Income Per Capita
    Total  Employment
    Federal Expenditures
    Personal Consumption Expenditures
    Total  Output
    Investment
    Energy Use
    Demand-  Iron
            Aluminum
    Recycling:  Paper/Paperboard
               Aluminum
               Ferrous 'Metals
    Vefiicle Kilometers
    Freight Metric Ton-Kilometers
    Net Air Residuals:
      Part iculates
      Sulfur Oxides
      Nitrogen Oxides
      Hydrocarbons
      C'-i-oon Monoxide
    Net j.atsr Residuals:
      Biochemical Oxygen Demand
      Suspended Sol ids
      Dissolved Solids
      Nutrients
    1975
    1 .92
    0
    1 ,99
    0.24
    0.53
    2.27
    7.26
    3.78
    3.99
    3.38
    0.67
    3.39
    3.23
    0
    3.41
    •4V. 15
    -32.67
    0. 10
    -13.50
    -19.00
    -11 .72
    -14.18
    -0.91
    -1.97
    1977
    1 .68
    0
    1.80
    1 .07
    0.25
    2.01
    5.24
    3.55
    3.25
    3.01
    0.63
    3.01
    2.76
    0
    2.96
    -74.69
    -63.36
    -0.95
    -23.63
    -28.99
    -38.04
    -52.09
    -8.58
    -6.20
    1980
    0.43
    -0.82
    0.46
    2.24
    0.41
    0.71
    2.44
    3.37
    0. 10
    0.97
    -0.25
    0.98
    0.77
    -0.82
    1 .82
    -75.50
    -62.36
    -4.30
    -36.34
    -50.57
    -57.14
    -75.40
    -13.41
    -11 .98
    1983
    0.34
    -0.34
    0.43
    2.20
    -0.09
    O.S9
    1.08
    3.71
    -1.19
    0.37
    -0.11
    0.37
    0.12
    -0.34
    1.78
    -80.83
    -61 .69
    -6.21
    -51.24
    -68.27
    -71.26
    -85.85
    -33.71
    -16.62
    1985
    0.96
    -0.59
    0.24
    2.17
    -0.21
    0.37
    0
    4.13
    -1.73
    -0.06
    -0.21
    -0.06
    -0.28
    -0.59
    1.85
    -86.03
    -61.54
    -8.56
    -60.52
    -76.45
    -78.14
    -90. 17
    -37.72
    -19.47
                                        i»-26
    

    -------
                                             Table 6.
                               Incremental Pollution control Costs
                            as a Percentage of Reference Scenario GNP
                   Air  Stationary
                   Source Costs
    
                     Annual Capital Cost
                     OSM Cost
    
                   Water Industrial Costs
    
                     Annual Capital Cost
                     OSM cost
    
                   Water Municipal Costs
    
                     Annual Capital Cost
                     OSM Cost
                                                 1977   1980   1983   1985  1976-85
    0.28  0.30  0.29  0.28    0.29
    0.26  0.28  0.25  0.24    0.26
    0.16  0.23  0.31  0.31    0.25
    0.28  0.33  0.34  0.47    0.35
    0.19  0.25  0.24  0.24    0.23
    0.06  0.09  0.09  0.08    0.08
                   The  effects on  environmental residuals in the Reference
                   Abatement  Scenario  are, as  noted  above, generally
                   substantial,  but quite different  patterns and relative
                   efficiencies  emerge when  these effects are compared with
                   those  resulting from the  1971 control technologies of the
                   Reference  Scenario.  For  example,  the air residuals shown in
                   Table  7  reflect this differential  effect:
    
                      *  For particulates and sulfur  oxides, the level of
                        maximum  efficiency is  nearly  realized by 1980 with
                        minor changes  after  that time.  Since the primary
                        emitters are stationary sources and existing plants are
                        assumed  to be  in full  compliance with Federally
                        mandated pollution control standards by 1980, this time
                        pattern  is expected.   Further small improvement can be
                        noted after  1980 for particulates; this is due to the
                        more  stringent regulations on new facilities.
    
                      •  For nitrogen oxides, the relative levels of treatment
                        are so minimal that  the level of annual residuals from
                        industries increases at nine-tenths the rate of
                        economic output.  About 60 percent of all nitrogen
                        oxide residuals in 1985 are  released by stationary
                        sources.   For  vehicle  emissions, the rate of
                        improvement in treatment efficiencies is somewhat
                        better,  but still so marginal that an increase in
                                               4-27
    .
    

    -------
    annual levels of total nitrogen oxides released to the
    air is noted.  Table 8 provides data for nitrogen oxide
    from passenger transportation, showing a 39 percent
    reduction in emissions per kilometer in 1985 as
    compared to the 1975 control levels.
    
    For the final two air residual categories, hydrocarbons
    and carbon monoxide, significant improvements in
    treatment efficiencies by 1985 are noted as shown in
    Table 8, with the improvements in post-1980
    efficiencies continuing to be significant.  This
    effect, unlike that seen for particulates, is because
    the chief emitters of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide
    are mobile sources of considerable vintage.  Since
    retrofit equipment is not a part of the assumed
    pollution controls, the steady state condition of
    almost all automobiles having emission characteristics
    similar to the most stringent standards will not occur
    until about 1995 when most of the 1975-and-earlier
    vintage automobiles will have been retired.  Thus,
    delays in meeting specific mobile source standards will
    be reflected in higher annual emissions for these two
    air residual categories for periods up to two decades
    later.
                           *-28
    

    -------
                                      Table 7.
            Relative Stationary  Source Treatment Efficiencies of
       Selected  Pollutants  for  the Reference and Reference Abatement scenarios
                (Efficiencies in  Percent of  Residuals  Removed)
    Air Residuals
    
    Participates
    Sulfur Oxides
    Nitrogen Oxides
    Hydrocarbons
    Carbon Monoxide
                                197S
    
                                    Reference
                         Reference   Abatement
     73.66
     23.89
      0.23
     39.69
     46.46
    85.33
    51.24
     2.53
    50.79
    62.14
                                   1980
    
                                       Reference
                            Reference   Abatement
    74.05
    23.26
     0.24
    39.66
    46.68
    94.06
    72.93
     5.64
    59.30
    72.75
                                                1985
    
                                                    Reference
                                         Reference   Abatement
    73.83
    23.54
     0.26
    41 .41
    4S.07
    96.96
    72.27
     5.65
    70.91
    76.17
    water Residuals
    
    Biochemical Oxygen
      Demand               69.02      72.43
    Suspended Solids        82.82      85.78
    Dissolved Solids        31.10      33.80
    Nytrients              35.42      37.26
                             67.74
                             83.11
                             32.43
                             38.97
                            86.17
                            96.07
                            43.84
                            47.45
                            67.57
                            83.68
                            34.57
                            40.88
                            92.91
                            98.50
                            61.15
                            53.83
                                      Table 8.
        Passenger Transportation Emission  Levels for the  Reference
                       and Reference Abatement Scenarios
           (Metric Tons per Million Vehicle Kilometers Travelled)   ,.
    Air Residuals
    Part icutates
    Sulfur Oxides
    Nitrogen Oxides
    Hydrocarbons
    Carbon Monoxide
           1975
    
               Reference
    Reference   Abatement
      0.22
      0.08
      1 .94
      2.65
     22.05
     0.18
     0.08
     1 .82
     2.28
    17.91
                        1980
    
                           Reference
                 Reference  Abatement
                                                                                 1985
     0.21
     O.OS
     1.92
     2.21
    22.30
     0.16.
     0.08
     1.60
     1.25
    10.48
                                                                         Reference
     0.21
     0.08
     1.91
     2.13
    22.48
                                      Reference
                                      Abatement
     0.14
     0.08
     1.11
     0.52
     3.65
                                       4-29
    

    -------
    The water residuals of the Reference Abatement Scenario
    shown in Table 7 exhibit the following patterns:
    
      •  For BOD and total suspended solids, significant
         improvement occurs throughout the decade, with high
         points coinciding with the regulatory years for BPT and
         BAT (1977 and 1983).  Since most suspended solids are
         treated within industrial plants, the required high-
         efficiency level for industry is reflected in the
         overall treatment efficiency of 96.1 percent in 1980
         and 98.5 percent in 1985.  For BOD, however, the
         existing pre-1971 BOD removal efficiencies at municipal
         plants result in an improvement of only in percent from
         1971 efficiencies by 1985..  The actual treatment
         efficiency achieved by 1985 is 93 percent of the BOD
         and 98.5 percent of the suspended solids that would
         have occurred if no treatment took place.
    
      •  For total dissolved solids, the Federal controls
         produce some relative improvements in treatment
         efficiency by 1977, the BPT compliance year, and then
         increase that treatment efficiency by over 50 percent
         by 1985.  Even in 1985, however, the actual treatment
         efficiency is only about 61 percent.
    
      •  For nutrients, the relative treatment efficiencies
         improve from about 37 percent in 1975 to 54 percent in
         1985.   This improvement occurs primarily as a result of
         the growth in tertiary treatment by municipal plants.
    
    Thus, it appears that the Reference Abatement Scenario has
    positive impacts compared to the Reference Scenario for both
    environmental effects and effects on the general economy.
    Areas that suffer adverse impacts do exist and are found
    primarily as demand for higher resource usage.
    
    In energy requirements, the Reference Abatement Scenario
    generates an overall demand requiring a 3. it percent increase
    for 1980 and 4.1 percent by 1985.  The annual rates of
    growth compared to the Reference Scenario over the decade
    are similar, as are demands for specific energy sources.
    The reasons for the increased demand are both the additional
    energy requirements resulting from the generally higher
    economic output associated with control device purchases and
    the energy needed to operate these devices.
    
    Iron, aluminum and copper usage also reflects the stimulated
    manufacturing output levels, as does recycling of
    paper/paperboard, aluminum and ferrous materials.  However,
    material resource usage decreases after completion of the
                               4-30
    

    -------
    major pollution capital investments while energy continues
    to grow due to operating demands from the pollution
    equipment.
    
    Finally, the comparison of the demand for transportation
    reveals that passenger vehicle-kilometers are slightly less
    in the Reference Abatement Scenario after 1980.  The
    increase in freight metric-ton kilometers over the decade in
    the Reference Abatement Scenario is, however, relatively
    steady and reflects higher manufacturing shipments.
    
    Prior to presenting a detailed analysis of sector effects
    for the Reference Case scenarios, the other two scenario
    pairs are analyzed.  This will provide an appreciation of
    the effects of abatement policies under changes in those
    parts of the national economy that are outside the control
    of environmental policy makers.
                    COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE
                     LOW-PRODUCTIVITY SCENARIOS
    
    The Low Productivity Case scenarios represent a low point on
    the range of economic conditions; this allows for a greater
    appreciation of the relative impacts of abatement
    regulations under different economic conditions.  The two
    scenarios are labelled the Low Productivity Scenario and the
    Low Productivity Abatement Scenario.  The principal
    difference between the Reference case scenarios and the Low
    Productivity Case scenarios is that the basic data for labor
    productivity in each industry and the expenditures which
    comprise the GNP elements were used directly from the
    INFORUM-supplied data base for the Low Productivity Scenario
    and the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario.  (INFORUM is
    the interindustry, input-output forecasting model which was
    used to produce economic forecasts for SEAS.  A summary of
    this model is provided in Appendix A.)  Use of this set of
    data results in a less optimistic economic forecast relative
    to the Reference Scenario after 1977, as shown in Figure 3.
    In going from the Low Productivity Scenario to the Low
    Productivity Abatement Scenario, the same steps were taken
    as in going from the Reference Scenario to the Reference
    Abatement Scenario.
    
    A summary of the Low Productivity Scenario results is
    presented in Table 9.  Table 10 provides a comparison of
    these results to the Reference Scenario, which also includes
    no incremental pollution control costs or effects.  In terms
    of GNP, the Low Productivity Scenario results for 1975 are
                               4-31
    

    -------
    greater than the projections used in the Reference Scenario.
    By 1977, the two scenarios have nearly equal GNP's, and then
    the lower productivity assumptions rapidly reduce the level
    of GNP so that by 1985 it is nearly 12 percent lower than
    GNP in the Reference Scenario ($2.06 versus $2.36 trillion,
    in constant 1975 dollars).
                               1-32
    

    -------
          Figure  3.
    
          Pr°:>ecti°ns  of     *
    Abatement Control Levels)
                                 r«c^ CONSERVATION
                                 (-A5E (Sc)
    
    
                                 REFERENCE CASE (Sj)
                                LOW PRODUCTIVITY
                                CASE CS3)
        1-33
    

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                                   Table  10.
               comparison of  the  Macro-statistics of the
    Low Productivity Scenario  (S3)  and the Reference  Scenario  fsil
                              [ (S3-S1J/S1  in  *]                           ~*
     Statistic
    
     Gross National  Product
     Disposable Income Per Capita
     Total Employment
     Federal Expenditures
     Personal Consumption Expenditures
     Total Output
     Investment
     Energy Use
     Demand: Iron  •
            Aluminum
     Recycling:  Paper/Paperboard
               A1 urn i num
               Ferrous  Metals  '
     Vehicle Kilometers Travelled
     Freight Metric Ton-Kitometers
     Met Air Residuals:
      Part i culates
      Sulfur Oxides
      Nitrogen Oxides
      Hydrocarbons
      Carbon Monoxide
    Net Water Residuals:
      Biochemical  Oxygen Demand
      Suspended Solids
      Dissolved Solids
      Nutrients
    1975
            1977
                     1980
                             1983
                                     1985
    3.93
    7.28
    -0.01
    0. 0
    4.61
    3.85
    2.65
    2.10
    3.15
    2.80
    4.52
    1 . 79
    1 . 61
    7.27
    3.09
    3. 18
    2.49
    4.01
    5.41
    6.43
    2.77
    2.70
    4.14
    0.30
    0.28
    0.97
    -0.04
    0.0
    0.95
    0.15
    -1.SO
    0.19
    -0.67
    -0.35
    0.57
    -0.17
    -0.31
    0.60
    0.00
    0.09
    0.23
    0.41
    0.53
    0.70
    0.07
    -0.26
    0.28
    -0.01
    -8.39
    -10.39
    -0.11
    0.0
    -7.77
    -8.53
    -13.47
    -4.65
    -10.78
    -9.88
    -8.29
    -5.88
    -5.30
    -10.24
    -7.36
    -7.63
    -6,45
    -7.54
    -8.61
    -10.05
    -5.55
    -7.72
    -8.19
    -0.67
    -10.39
    -14.31
    -0.20
    0.0
    -11.18
    -10.30
    -12.78
    -5.70
    -10.23
    -9.97
    -10.85
    -5.77
    -5.22
    -14.47
    -8.54
    -8.50
    -8.49
    -10.02
    -1 1 .23
    -13.43
    -6.76
    -8.05
    -10.29
    -0.78
    -1 1 .68
    -16.43
    -o'l i o
    0.0
    -12.98
    -11.51
    -12.78
    -6.39
    -10.69
    -10.60
    -12.38
    -6.19
    -5.53
    -16.12
    -9.36
    -9.45
    -9.58
    -11.51
    -12.76
    -15.31
    -7.63
    -8.75
    -11.73
    -0.88
                                    U-37
    

    -------
    The impact of the lower productivity assumptions after 1977
    is readily seen: with unemployment rates consistent with
    those of the Reference Scenario across the decade,
    considerable reductions in personal consumption expenditures
    are required in order to maintain full-supply GNP.  The
    historical INFOROM projections of productivity are greater
    than the actual 1975 factors and are nearly equal to 1977
    forecasts for the Reference scenario.  The greatest
    divergence in forecasts for the two scenarios occurs over
    the period 1977-80, but significant change continues through
    1985.  The percentage differences in the personal
    consumption expenditures for 1980, 1983 and 1985 are -7.8
    percent, -11.2 percent and -13.0 percent, respectively.
    These changes, as well as those prior to 1980, parallel the
    changes in GNP between the two scenarios.  In further
    comparing results from the two scenarios, the drops in
    equipment and construction investment are greater than the
    change in GNP in each, while total output parallels the GNP
    change.  The impact of these economic differences on
    transportation in the Low Productivity Scenario is
    significant, with the vehicle kilometers travelled reduced
    by over 10 percent from 1980 to 1985.  The annual reduction
    in freight-metric-ton-kilometers for the period of 1977-85
    is on the order of 1 percent.
    
    The effects of the Low Productivity Scenario on material
    usage, as measured by U.S. demands for iron, aluminum and
    copper, follow the economic trends for the period 1980-85,
    with each demand being down by about 10 percent during the
    6-year period.  Demands for recycled materials, as typified
    by aluminum,  paper products, and ferrous metals, also are
    reduced.  The decrease in recycled aluminum is 6 percent,
    only three-fifths of the drop in demand for primary aluminum
    ore., For recycled paper products, the drop in demand is
    from 8.3 percent to 12.1 percent over the period 1980-85.
    
    Energy usage also shows significant reductions.  Total
    usage, in quadrillion Btu's, drops from 93.6 to 89.3 in 1980
    (i»,6 percent drop) and from 109 to 102  (6.4 percent drop) in
    1985 between the Reference Scenario and the Low Productivity
    Scenario.  For the Low Productivity scenario, the
    contributions of coal and nuclear fuels for electric power
    generation by electric utilities are about equal, with each
    providing 32 percent of the source energy.  Thus, although
    energy demand decreases from the Reference Scenario, the
    change is only about half that of the relative decrease in
    the growth of the economy and other material resources.
    
    The impact on the air and water environmental residuals from
    the Low Productivity scenario follows the changes in
                               1-38
    

    -------
    economic indicators for most listed residuals.  Table 11
    shows the relative levels of net residuals, with stationary
    and mobile air residual emissions reported separately.
                             Table 11.
           Environmental Residuals from Low Productivity
             Scenario (S3) as a Percentage of Reference
                      Scenario Residuals (SI)
                            (S3/S1 in %)
    Air Residuals
    Stationary Sources
    
      Particulates
      Sulfur Oxides
      Nitrogen Oxides
      Hydrocarbons
      Carbon Monoxide
    
    Air Residuals
    Mobile sources
    
      Particulates
      Sulfur Oxides
      Nitrogen Oxides
      Hydrocarbons
      Carbon Monoxide
    
    Water Residuals
    
      Biochemical
         Oxygen Demand
      Suspended Solids
      Dissolved Solids
      Nutrients
                              1977
    100
    100
    100
    100
     99
    100
    100
    100
    101
    101
    100
    100
    100
    100
            1980
    92
    94
    91
    93
    91
    92
    93
    91
    91
    90
    94
    92
    92
    99
           1983
    92
    92
    92
    92
    91
    92
    92
    90
    89
    87
    93
    92
    90
    99
           1985
    91
    90
    90
    91
    90
    91
    90
    38
    37
    85
    92
    91
    88
    99
    The second scenario which assumes different economic
    conditions, the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario, differs
    from its baseline, the Low Productivity Scenario, in the
    same fashion as the Abatement Scenario differs from the
    Reference scenario.  Thus, a comparison of the statistics of
    the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario with those of the
    Low productivity Scenario provides an impact analysis of
    Federal pollution control laws and regulations, given the
    low growth economic conditions.
                               1-39
    

    -------
    Table 12 provides the general statistics for the Low
    Productivity Abatement Scenario in a form comparable to that
    used for the Reference Abatement Scenario in Table H.  The
    general comparative economic trends found for the Reference
    Abatement Scenario continue for this scenario, with the
    stimulus to economic output due to compliance with Federal
    pollution control laws and regulations in evidence
    throughout the decade, as shown in Table 13.  Through 1980,
    there is sufficiently high unemployment in the Low
    Productivity Scenario so that the additional labor force
    required for abatement is available.  After that time,
    however, small diversions of labor from competing sources of
    employment are required.
                               H-UO
    

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                                  Table 13.
            Comparison of  the Macro-Statistics of the Low
    Productivity Abatement Scenario  (SH)  and the Low Productivity  Scenario
                              [ (S«-S3)/S3 in %]
    Statistic
    
    Gross  National Product
    Disposable Income Per Capita
    Total  Employment
    Federal Expenditures
    Personal Consumption Expenditures
    Total  Output
    Investment
    Energy Use
    Demand: iron
           AI urn 1num
    Recycling:  Paper/Paperboard
               Al umtn'um
               Ferrous Metals
    Vehicle Kilometers Travelled
    Freight Metric Ton-Kilometers
    Net Air Residuals:
      Particulates
      Sulfur Oxides
      Ni trogen Oxides
      Hydrocarbons.
      Carbon Monoxide
    Net Water Residuals:
      Biochemical Oxygen Demand
      Suspended Solids
      Dissolved Sol ids
      Nutrients
    1975
                                               1977
    1980
                                                                     1983
                                                198S
    1 .89
    0.07
    0.94
    0.23
    0.56
    2.24
    6.99
    3.76
    3.86
    3.27
    0.68
    2.03
    1 .66'
    0.07
    3.49
    •41.74
    •31 .87
    0.00
    -13.63
    •18.96
    •11 .81
    -14.24
    -0.97
    -1.97
    2.76
    1 .29
    1.83
    1.07
    1 .16
    3.11
    7.45
    4.22
    4.83
    4.41
    1.65
    2.65
    2.20
    1 .29
    4.00
    -67.07
    -63.03
    -0.03
    -22.71
    -28.06
    -37.72
    -52.62
    -7.54
    -6.16
    0.79
    -0.18
    0.67
    2.22
    0.13
    1.07
    2.46
    3.57
    0.12
    1.06
    0.17
    0.57
    0.35
    -0.98
    2.25
    -77.58
    -62.37
    -3.81
    -35.66
    -50.34
    -56'. 54
    -74.83
    -12.77
    -11 .80
    0.60
    -0.06
    0.44
    2.20
    . 0.18
    0.85
    1 .41
    3.78
    -0.64
    0.52
    0.08
    0.39
    0.42
    -0.06
    2.28
    -80.85
    -61 .71
    -5.57
    -50.41
    -67 . 22
    -70.72
    -85 . 36
    -33.39
    -16.38
    0.06
    -0.63
    0.21
    2.15
    -0.16
    0.39
    . -0.32
    4.08
    -1.77
    -0.29
    -0.24
    0.07
    0.37
    -0.63
    2.16
    -86.15
    -61.72
    -7.78
    -59. 68
    -76.06
    -77.80
    -89.69
    -37.65
    -19.20
    

    -------
    The relative impact of pollution control expenditures for
    the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario are shown in Table
    14, which presents these costs as a percentage of the Low
    Productivity Scenario GNP.  These proportions can be
    compared with similar data for the Reference Case given in
    Table 6.
                             Table 11.
        Incremental Pollution Control Costs as a Percentage
                  of Low Productivity Scenario GNP
    Air Stationary
    Source costs
    
      Annual Capital Cost
      O6M Cost
    
    Water Industrial Costs
    
      Annual Capital Cost
      O6M Cost
    
    Water Municipal Costs
    
      Annual Capital Cost
      O6M Cost
                                 1977  1980  1983  1985  1976-85
    0.29  0.34  0.31  0.31
    0.26  0.29  0.26  0.25
    0.17
    0.29
    0.19
    0.05
    0.23
    0.33
    0.29
    0.10
    0.31
    0.34
    0.27
    0.10
    0.32
    0.19
    0.26
    0.10
                       0.30
                       0.27
     0.24
     0.35
    0.25
    0.08
    Comparing the statistics of Tables 6 and 14 demonstrates
    that the relative level of impact at the macroeconomic level
    is similar for the two cases.  Hence, over the range of
    economic growth bounded by these situations, the level of
    direct economic impact of pollution control legislation
    appears to be reasonably constant.  The indirect impacts
    also are similar in terms of increased employment levels for
    each abatement scenario as compared to its non-abatement
    scenario.
    
    Tables 15 and 16 provide aggregate pollutant treatment
    projections for the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario that
    are comparable to the Reference Abatement Scenario values of
    Tables 7 and 8.  As can be noted, the treatment efficiencies
    are comparable, with consistent trends for all residuals.
    This suggests that the level of economic output has no major
    effect on aggregate treatment levels.
                               4-45
    

    -------
    In a similar vein, the changes in material and energy usage
    between the non-abatement and the abatement scenarios are
    similar to the economic patterns for each case.  Thus, in
    terms of macroeconomic impacts, the introduction of
    Federally imposed pollution controls produces comparable
    effects for the high economic growth Reference Abatement
    Scenario and the low economic growth Low Productivity
    Abatement Scenario.
                               4-U6
    

    -------
                                           Table  15.
                 Relative  Stationary .Source  Treatment Efficiences  of
                      Selected  Pollutants for the Low  Productivity
                         and Low Productivity  Abatement Scenarios
                      (Efficiencies in Percent of  Residuals  Removed)
      Air  Residuals
    
    .'i Part icula'tes
     '. Sui fur Oxides
      Nitrogen Oxides
      Hydrocarbons '
    .  Carbon Monoxide
    
     , Hater,-Residuals
    V ••.,„ .  B-iochemica-l'liOxYQeri'
    ^ ..,' •",'• ^P*martd V'•' ••.;,'•;:•••'.•., ''Table. 16.  .         . '   •    .
           Passenger  Transportation Emission Levels  for  the  Low Productivity
               fM^^aj£ ^°W  Pfoductivity  Abatement  Scenarios                 Y
               (Metric Tons per Million  Vehicle Kilometers Travelled)
      Air Residuals
    
      Part icutates•
      Sui fur Oxides '
      Nitrogen Oxides
      Hydrocarbons
      Carbon Monoxide
                                  ' 1975
    
                            Low
                            Product ivity
     0.22
     0.08
     1 .94
     2.65
    22.05
    Low
    Product! v
    Abatement
        0.18
        0.08
        1.82
        2.28
       17.92
                         ty
            1980
    
    Low
    Productivi ty
        0.21
        0.08
        1.92
        2.21
      22.29
    Low
    Productivi ty
    Abatement
        0.16
        0.08
        1.60
        1.25
       10.48
            1985
    
    Low
    Product iv1ty
        0.21
        0.08
        1.91
        2.13
      22.48
                                                                                                     Low
                                                                                                     Product Ivji
                                                                                                     Abatement
                                                                                                         0.14
                                                                                                         0.08
                                                                                                         1 .11
                                                                                                         0.53
                                                                                                         3.65
    

    -------
                    COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE
                   ENERGY CONSERVATION SCENARIOS
    To further explore the possible variations in pollution
    control costs because of different assumptions about
    conditions and policies in the future, a pair of scenarios
    was constructed which approximated energy usage forecasts in
    the Federal Energy Administration's "Business-as-Usual-With-
    Conservation" scenario, where the price of imported oil is
    $11 per barrel.  In this analysis, it was assumed that this
    reduction in energy use could be achieved by the following
    actions:
    
         1. Reduced household energy consumption for space-
            heating and cooling by using improved insulation and
            higher summer and lower winter thermostat settings.
    
         2. Reduced per capita gasoline use through increased
            carpoplihg, increased use of mass transit, and
            improved auto fuel consumption efficiency.
    
         3. A reduction in the interindustry fossil fuel use
            coefficients  (energy input reguired to produce one
            unit of output) for energy-intensive products by
            substitution of less energy-intensive inputs.  These
            reductions include:  shifts to returnable beverage
            containers, reductions in the use of artificial
            fertilizers, reduced use of packaging materials, and
            some recycling of energy-intensive materials.
    
         1. Miscellaneous changes to reflect improved energy
            housekeeping activities in certain industries.
    
    The first of the Energy Conservation scenarios, without the
    Federally imposed .pollution controls, is denpted as the
    Energy Scenario.  The second, which introduces the effects
    of pollution control in the same way as for the other two
    abatement scenarios, is the Energy Abatement Scenario.
    
    A set of output statistics for the Energy Scenario is
    provided ;in Table/ 17.  Some of the major economic factors
    are compared to Reference Scenario values in Table 18.  The
    differences which occur are present even though the primary
    factors that alter GNP, the final demand accounts of
    personal consumption expenditures and Federal expenditures,
    were held at the same levels for the Reference and the
    Energy Scenarios (and also were held constant for the
    Reference Abatement and Energy Abatement Scenarios).  Thus,
    the impacts are solely a result of purchase changes due to
    

    -------
    energy conservation measures introduced in the Energy
    Conservation case.
    

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