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                       United States
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''       A  "*        ,  Agency,         (ANR-445)     April 1991
'**•--*     uudun          Environmental Protection Air and Radiation  EPA/400/1-91/006.A
          EPA      Acid Rain Advisory
                         immittee Meetii
                       lanuary

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                      Allowance Trading
              ;       Issue Papers
                          HEADQUARTERS LIBRARY
                          ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                          WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460

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               UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                   ' .  ,,    WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
                                                     'A3
                           .JAN  17 I99J
                                                         OFFICE OF
                                                       AIR AND RADIATION
MEMORANDUM.      »         -

SUBJECT:  Agenda for Allowance Trading  Subcommittee

FROM:
TO:
Renee .Rico, Chief
Allowance System Branch, EPA

Allowance Trading Subcommittee Members
     Happy New Year!

     Please review the attached agenda for the subcommittee, meeting
carefully,  and  as  preparation,   read  the  papers • indicated  in
parentheses.

     We  have  a lot  to cover in,  subcommittee,  so let  me briefly
outline where I see  us ne'eding to head  during the day.

  .   First, we will be setting our schedule and priorities for.the
next' three  meetings  (February, March and  April).  EPA will come
with a  scheme of getting through issues  to prepare  for the: full
'ARAC.   Second,  we will  discuss issues  relating to the Allowance
Auqpfron •and.  Direct   Sale,  including the  provision  for the IPP
guarantees.  The Auctions and Sales issues will be discussed a^: the
full ARAC committee  meeting  the next  morning.   Therefore, the
subcommittee  will need  to  decide what it, wants to  say the next
day.  Third,  we   will  have  some  presentations .made  on  some
fundamental  issues  associated with trading,  including  special
presentations by  tax and accounting experts.
                       .*-"•.•,. *        "             •
     Ann Murtlow  from AES has prepared  ah  issue paper on election
sources, but given the tightness  of the day,  we will defer a full
discussion of this issue to the next meeting.

     For. those on the subcommittee who desire, we will be reserving
space for a no-host  dinner  for subcommittee members and EPA  staff
for  Monday  evening,  January 28th.  We'll take  a head count  first
thing Monday morning.

     See you there.
                                                          Primal on
                                                                   Paper

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                  ALLOWANCE TRADING SUBCOMMITTEE
                 PAPERS  FOR JANUARY 28  &  29,  1991

CODE & TITLE                                           PAGE

A3 - Agenda for Allowance Trading Subcommittee


A4 - Design Analysis for The Title IV Auctions         1


A5 - Design Analysis,for The Title IV Written          5
     Guarantees for IPPs


A6 - Direct Sales (Discussion Paper)                   11


A7 - The Allowance Transfer System                     14
     (Discussion Paper)
A8 - Issue Paper on Multi-Unit Allowance               20
     Pooling For Compliance
A9 - Key Issues on Opt-in Provisions Title IV,         27
     section 410
A10 - A Future Market in S02 Emissions Allowance       30
     Contracts
All - Issues Associated with Implementation of         37
     Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments
     of 1990

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               ARAC ALLOWANCE TRADING SUBCOMMITTEE
                        '.      AGENDA
                         January  28,  1991
                       Omni Shoreham .Hotel
                         Washington,  D.C.
9:00 a.m.

9:15 p.m.


10:15 a.m.
12:45 a.m.

2:00 p.m.



3:30 p.m.

3:45 p.m.
Announcements; Revisions;to Agenda

Setting Schedule for February,
March, and April

Presentation on Auctions and Sales
(Papers A4, A5, and A6)
- Presentation
- Discussion

Lunch

Allowance Trading Papers
-Transactions (Paper A7)
- Multi^unit pooling.(Paper A8)
     r    y' '     -       • ."
BREAK     '

Special Presentation, on Tax and
Accounting Issues
O'Connor

Rico/O'Connor


EPA
EPA
4:45 p.m.


5:00 p.m.
Summary of Progress,
Next Steps

Meeting Adjourns
O'Connor

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         -  -              DESIGN ANALYSIS FOR THE, :    ,•:         •  '   ",  -
                               TITLE IV AUCTIONS    ,:     .
            ''• \       ....     * J       _                   „  "* • •  i
      ' . '  '   '  ,          '         .» -" i • * "     *'.**.    • ' *       • *          *«
 •'.:.    The. auctions (and direct sales) provisions of the-1990 Clean Air Act are intended
 to provide certainty that units will have an assured back-up source of allowances.beyond
.those which are allocated initially, or, in the case of new units,,if the/market fails to
 provide the needed allowances that access to such allowances is assured.
 SEC. 416 (d) Auctions                .",  ;           '    •'-•
       EPA is required to sell allowances-in yearly spot auctions and advance auctions
 beginning; in 1993.  Allowances sold in spot auctions are usable the year in which they
 are sold except for allowances sold in 1993 and 1994, which are usable in 1995.
 Allowances sold in advance auctions are only .usable 7 years after-purchase. Advance
 allowances provide utilities assurance that •allowances will be available .for future use;
 they also help to/facilitate utilities' long-term planning.   Any person is allowed to
 participate in the auctions.                                  '
 STRAWMAN DESIGN FOR THE AUCTION
       o.   - When Auctions 'Are He|d: For the convenenience of bidders and for
          .>  administrative ease, it would be best that both auctions (the advance and .
             spot) be held on the same day.  Both auctions will offer EPA and privately-
             contributed allowances1 (to be discussed later .in this paper).
           •  •  -'.  -. - •."'•:-:   •    • -  '  -    -,•"..   " -' •,.--•  ' '• :  :•' "-'•'•
       o    ' Form of the Auction: The auction will be of the "discriminating" form, i.e.
             winning bidders will pay their bid price.  Explanation:  The discriminating •
             form of auction appears to be consistent with  the language of the Act;-and
      '•   ,   is easy for bidders to understand since, it is the most familiar form.. ••
             Cutoff .Date For Bids: Bidders for each auction will send sealed bids to the
             manager of. the auctions no later than 3 working-days prior to the date of
             the auctions. Explanation: three days is a reasonable time for the manager
             of the auction to enter bids into the; computer system; in addition, EPA
             would not want to be .holding bidders money for long periods of time.
             .'''• t. ... ..••''•    ' •    •'.-,,•'''               ' .   ••„•-';'     • .•
             Bid Contents: Sealed bids will be sent to the, auction manager on a
             standard bid form (to be developed by EPA). The bid will specify name,.
             account number, allowance quantity and price, and include a certified
             check or cashier's  check for the total bid price regardless of the type of
             auction (spot or advance) Bidders are bidding in. Allowance bidders will

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be required to provide the information for EPA to set up allowance    '
accounts if they do not already have one so that allowances won at auction
can be transferred directly to the accounts.  A "new account form" will be
sent in with bids; if the bid is not won, the account will not be established.
(Note: procedures for establishing accounts are discussed in a separate
paper and will be treated in separate, but cross-referenced regulations.)
Explanation: standard bid forms will streamline data entry and provide a -
legal record of the bid, as opposed to faxes or computer transmissions.
Requiring a certified or cashier's check for the total amount bid will ensure
serious bids, reduce default problems, reflect the complete transfer of
allowance ownership rights upon the bid award, and ease the
administrative burden of having to collect and keep track of periodic;
installment payments. Of course, bids for advance allowances may be
priced lower than those for spot allowances, since the present value of an
allowance useable seven years in the  future may be less than the present
value of an allowance useable in the year of purchase.

Bid Amount & Number of Bids: No restrictions will be placed on the
number of allowances a bidder can bid for; however, EPA will reserve the
right to restrict, prospectively, if circumstances prove necessary in the
future.  Multiple bids will also be unrestricted, but each bid will be treated
individually and require a separate bid form and certified or cashier's
check. Explanation:  There do not appear to be any compelling reasons
that the number of allowances bid for, or multiple bids should .be
restricted. Furthermore, restrictions are viewed as obstacles to a well-
functioning auction, and PUCs may restrict unnecessary bidding by affected
sources. Separate bid forms for each bid will speed bid sorting and reduce
errors.
Tie Bids: In the case of tie bids (multiple bidders at the "cutoff price"),
EPA will allocate the available allowances by lottery.  In a lottery system,
all parties have an equal chance  of winning. Lottery winners will receive
all they bid for (or a partial amount if the amount left to-allocate cannot
satisfy bids) until the supply is exhausted.  Explanation: The "winner-take-
all" approach is less ambiguous and thus avoids confusion when allowances
are awarded after the auction.

Announcement of Results: EPA is required to report publicly the nature,
prices, and results of each auction. Names of all bidders and their bids
(winners and losers), and any cut-off price will be announced on an
electronic bulletin board within the EPA tracking system.  Bidders will
simply dial into the system to view the results.  A written version will also
be published in various documents (newspapers, periodicals and/or the

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      Federal Register) soon after each auction. Explanation: Publishing all bid-
      prices and the cutoff price provides information for market participants to
      gauge the demand and the price range for allowances. Though some might
      object to the publishing of names, advisors to EPA indicate that the names
      will facilitate information flow and market trading. An electronic system
      appears to be the quickest and most efficient way to convey the auction
      results.

o     How  Proceeds From the EPA Auctions Will Be Transferred:  Pursuant, to'
      the legislation, EPA has 90 days after the auctions to transfer proceeds to
      the original  holders of .the auctioned allowances.  EPA will send checks for
      amounts (based on a pro rata calculation) to the owners and operators
      from  whom  allowances were withheld.  As stated in the CAA, any unsold
      EPA  allowances will be returned at the end of the year, on a pro rata
      basis, to the original holders of those allowances.  This will be done
      electronically in the allowance tracking system.  EPA will not pay interest
      oh the proceeds it can hold for up to 90 days; however, for routine
      transactions; EPA intends to process and disburse proceeds sooner than 90
      days.  Explanation: Government agencies need only pay interest on money
      held by them if explicitly stated in law. The CAA is silent on this issue.
              -.        j                  '              ~         '
o     Who  Will Run the Auctions: This will be decided when the strawman
      design is agreed upon by all interested parties.

o     When in the-Year Will  the Auctions Occur?: There are two logical choices
      for when during the year the  auction should occur. The choices are:

      1.     Early in the year. Holding the auction early will allow IPPs and
             others not allocated yearly allowances a chance to try to purchase
             allowances  at auction before having to resort to buying high priced
             allowances  in the direct sale. An early auction will also allow new
             and existing units time to plan for end-of-the year compliance.
             Holding the auction early however, will eliminate the opportunity
             for last minute buying  of spot allowances for end-of-the year
             compliance. (The Direct Sale Program could serve this function if it
             is still running in the year .2000 when spot allowances will be
             offered.)  In addition, holding the auction early (before the sale) will
             mean tharany unsold sale allowances will have to be transferred
            into the following year's auction.

      2.     Late  in the year. Holding the auction late in the year will  allow the
             auction to serve as a last resort for spot allowances at year end.
             Also, if the auction follows 'the sale, any unsold allowances from the
             sale can be transferred into the current year's  auction.

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      As stated in the law [SEC 416 (d)(2)], allowances will be allocated on the basis of
bid-price (as opposed to a single "clearing" price), starting with the highest-priced bid and
continuing until all allowances for sale by EPA have been allocated.  After the EPA
allowances have been auctioned off, allowances submitted by others will be sold in the
same manner; however, holders of these allowances may specify a minimum price.
(These allowances will  be referred to as "private" allowances.) The proceeds from the
sale of private allowances will be transferred at the time of the  auction by the purchaser
to the seller.
             How Private Allowances Will be Auctioned: By law, EPA allowances must
             be allocated first, and privately-contributed-allowances second; together
             they constitute the total supply of allowances for sale in the EPA auctions.
             All bids to the auctions will be ranked from highest to lowest EPA will
             allocate its allowances based on bid price until there  are no more left to
             sell.  When EPA runs out of allowances, bidders next in line will receive
             private allowances. Private allowances with the lowest (or no) minimum
             price will be matched first to the bid just losing EPA allowances. This
             matching process will continue in ascending order of  minimum price until a
             cutoff price is established.  A cutoff price will be established when EPA
             can no longer match bids with privately-contributed allowances because
             sellers have set their minimum price higher than any  remaining bids (see
             Figure 1 on page 5). Allowance holders  wanting to sell allowances in the
             auctions will have to-notify EPA, in writing, 5 working days prior to the
             auctions, of the number of allowances they want to sell and at what
             minimum price (if any).  Explanation: Matching privateiy-contributed-
             allowances having the lowest minimum price with bids just losing EPA
             allowances is consistent with a policy of rewarding the seller who can
             provide compliance at the lowest cost. Selling private allowances in the
             EPA auctions is simple administratively, and consistent with the EPA
             auction format (selling spot and advance allowances only). Notification of
             intent to sell 5 working days prior to the auction is a  reasonable time for
             EPA to reserve private allowances and for  private sellers to make their
             choices.

  Others have suggested to EPA that the private allowances be  given their own auction
so that buyers and sellers could be matched to negotiate  specific deals (i.e streams of  .
allowances).  An auction, however, is not the appropriate format for negotiating deals.
For example, a private allowance holder wishing to offer a multi-year stream of
allowances would have to state in the offer the timing and conditions of the payment
Unless a bidder is willing to accept an offer on the seller's precise  terms, a brokerage or
negotiation format, rather than an auction format, is far more useful for selling streams
of allowances.

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                     DESIGN ANALYSIS FOR THE TITLE IV
                       WRITTEN GUARANTEES FOR IPPs
  r:    Section 416(c)(3) requires EPA to provide independent power producers  (IPPs)
planning to construct new facilities with a "written guarantee" that allows the purchase of
required allowances at a fixed price of $1500. It provides IPPs, at a time when a market for
allowances has not yet developed, with a means of demonstrating to their lenders that they
will have access to a sufficient number of allowances to fully operate planned faculties.
 SUMMARY OF THE WRITTEN GUARANTEE PROVISIONS
                       . '' •.    ~     ' •   . *   ..        •         •
'•" o    Definition'of an IPP: an owner of.operator of a new independent power production *
       facility that:                           "

             commences commercial operations after passage of the GAA;
             is nonrecourse project-financed (financing is based,only on the .
             returns to- the project - there is -no recourse: to 'Other assets for
             repayment of the loan); '-.- ,   . "•'     '     ,*;-.--.:;
             sells 80% of electricity generated at wholesale; and •
    '..  -. .   does  not  sell  electricity  to< any  affiliate or,-if it-does,
             demonstrates it cannot obtain allowances from such an affiliate.

  o    -Required demonstration by IPPs: an IPP is entitled to a written guarantee from EPA
       within 30 days of application allowing the purchase of required allowances at $1500
       each if it demonstrates that it:.                         .     ,
       ,.-.;...<          '• '•   '                             .    -.  ;
       -     proposes to construct a new facility;
             will apply for financing between January 1990 and the date of
  .           the 1993 auction;     .         -               ,:
       - v;   submitted written offers.to each unit  listed in .Table A .(all
             grandfathered utilities) to purchase .the required allowances at
             $750each; -I  •  -   .  *-• ..  '       -  '   .'. / "",-  .-^, '     • .
     •  -     has not received ah acceptance within 180 days of the  offers

       (IPPs may be required  to demonstrate that they have made  a good faith (but
   *   unsuccessful) effort to obtain allowances, including participation in the auction, and
       '-pledge to continue to make a good faith effort to obtain allowances.)

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STRAWMAN DESIGN FOR THE WRITTEN GUARANTEE PROGRAM
1.  Requirements for IPPs Applying for Written Guarantees

   o  Information Concerning the New Facility:  The applicant must submit sufficient
      information to establish that it "proposes to construct a new independent power
      production facility for which allowances are  required."  This shall include, at a
      minimum: (1) the location of the proposed facility; (2) the proposed size and type
      of the facility; (3) an estimate  of uncontrolled SO2  emissions; (4) the required
      regulatory emissions limits for the facility and a description the pollution control
      devices intended to be installed; (5) an estimate of the residual emissions for which
      allowances will be needed;  (6) the proposed start-up date of the facility and its
      expected operating lifetime;  and (7) the duration of the power sales agreement ,(if-
      there is a signed agreement). Specific supporting documents will also be required
      as attachments to the application form.
                                                                          **
      Discussion:  This information request will be the  primary way of limiting
      applications to bona fide projects. A checklist of project milestones that can
      be used to refine the information requested for planned new facilities and to
      specify the kinds of supporting documents that-must be provided along with
      the application form. Such milestones might include:(l) a signed power sales
      agreement;  (2) a notice  from a utility that an IPP has won a power of
      purchase solicitation; (3) a signed fuel supply agreement; (4) a completed site
      lease (if applicable)  or proof of land  acquisition; (5) a signed steam sales
      agreement (if applicable); (6) a signed construction contract (if applicable);
      (7)  air  or  other environmental  permits  (accepted  for application  or
      completed)                                                         -

  o   Application for Financing: The applicant must provide EPA with a pro-forma pledge
      that  it intends to "apply for financing" before the date of the 1993 auction.

      Discussion: Obtaining financing for IPP projects is not a single step process,
      such as obtaining a mortgage or car loan, nor. do IPP developers necessarily
      use a uniform process for obtaining financing.  Because of ambiguities in .
      determining whether an applicant has "applied" for financing, EPA intends to
      require a pledge regarding financing and .to use the information requested
      regarding the planned new facility as the means of limiting applications to
      bonafide projects.                                                    "

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o   Deposits;  Applicants will not be required to submit deposits.     .

    Discussion: There are two issues. The first is whether the language for the
    direct sales program requiring applicants to make a 50 percent deposit within
    six months after the  "request" to purchase is approved applies to IPP written
    guarantees (Sec.416  (c)(2)).   Language requiring IPPs to continue to make-
    good faith efforts to, obtain allowances from the private market and the
    annual auction and  allowing IPPs  a right  of first refusal  in  purchasing
    allowances from the direct sales subaccount is incompatible with requiring a
    SO percent deposit because that would .virtually lock IPPs into using the
    written guarantees. In addition, requiring such a large deposit (50 percent of
    $1500 times the total number of allowances necessary to operate a facility
    over its proposed lifetime) in advance of when financing typically is available
    would have the practical effect of precluding most IPPs from taking advantage
    of the written guarantees. The second is whether a small, non-refundable
    deposit should be used as a means of limiting applications to those  projects*
    that are likely to actually be completed. To require such a deposit would be
    superfluous since the information requested regarding  planned facilities
    should  be  sufficient  to limit applications to bonafide projects.  (Also, IPPs
    probably would forfeit  the  deposit because  it is unlikely, that the written
    guarantees actually will be exercised.)

o   Submission of S750 Offers: An applicant must submit a signed statement that
    it submitted written offers to each unit listed in Table A to purchase the
    required  allowances at  .$750  each  and .that  it  has   not received an
    unconditional acceptance within 180 days of the offers. No requirements will
    be placed on the terms of such offers, other than that $750 must be paid for
    the allowances. Applicants must maintain and make available to EPA, at its
    request, copies of such written offers, along, with anyresponses to such offers.

    Discussion: Applicants must make such offers to satisfy the plain language of
  .  the  Act.   However, it would be inappropriate for EPA, to evaluate the
    "reasonableness"  of  the nature  and terms of the offers  made' by  IPPs to
    utilities.                                                     .

o   Demonstration of Continued Good Faith Efforts: Applicants will be required
    to make a pro-forma pledge that they will continue to make good faith efforts
    to potato allowances, but they will not be required to  submit paperwork
    actually demonstrating such efforts.  Applicants will be  required to  retain
    copies of their bids  in the annual auctions and any written offers made to
    Phase I facilities and to make such documents available to EPA at its request.
    Failure of IPPs to continue making good faith efforts to obtain allowances will
 .   result in termination of the written guarantee.-

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      Discussion:  This requirement essentially is self-enforcing because it is in the
      financial self-interest of IPPs to obtain allowances priced at less than $1500.   '     '• ^^


2. Design of Features of the Written Guarantee Program

   o  Cut-off Date fo^ Applications:  No specific cut-off date for applications will
      be established. However, anyone submitting an application after the auction
      date in  1993 must demonstrate that the project was planned before that date
      and that negotiations to purchase the allowances required to operate the
      facility  over its  lifetime or the  length  of the power  sales agreement,
      commenced before the auction date in 1993 and were unsuccessful.

      Discussion:    The  language of the Act requires that applicants must
      demonstrate that they propose to construct a new facility and that they will
      apply for financing before the auction in 1993.  However, no explicit date is
      established  as a cutoff date  for the application for written guarantees.  The
      proposed approach allows IPPs that attempt to negotiate long-term contracts
      for allowances the flexibility of obtaining written guarantees should those
      negotiations fail. Other options to be consider include: establishing the 1993
      auction date as the cut-off date  and  extending the cutoff date for  a year or
      two beyond 1993.

   o  Duration of Written Guarantee:   The written guarantee will  allow the
      applicant to purchase, beginning no earlier than the year 2000, allowances in
     * each calendar year over the lifetime of the power sales agreement or the
      useful life of the unit.

  ,.o  Transferabilitv of Written Guarantees: Written guarantees can be  exercised
      only for the planned facility for which the application was made,  it can be
      transferred  to new owners, should the facility be sold.

  o   Cap for Written Guarantees: The aggregate annual cap for allowances reserved
      through written guarantees will be set at 50,000.
                    The  Act  establishes  a direct sales  subaccount  of 50,000
       allowances to be used for both written guarantees and for direct sales. It also
       establishes a direct sales schedule in which 25,000 advance allowances are to
       be offered each year from 1993 to 1999 and 25,000 spot and 25,000 advance
       allowances are to be offered each year after the year 2000.  However, the
       written guarantees are  not tied to the direct  sales  schedule  and  have
       precedence over direct sales. Therefore, the entire 'amount of allowances in
       the  direct sales subaccount should be  made  available to IPPs  and only
       residual allowances (those not reserved under written guarantees) should be

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 offered in the direct sales program. (The direct sales schedule will be altered
 either by subtracting the guaranteed  allowances from the spot allowance
 category first and then subtracting any remaining reserved allowances from
 the advance allowance category, or by subtracting an equal number from each
.category.)          .'••-•,

 First-come, first served: Written guarantees will be processed and approved within
 30 working days according to the order in which applications are received, beginning
 with the date the regulations go into effect.-(EPA will time/date stamp applications.)
 Applicants who have filed applications that are deficient will be notified within 30
 working days and will have ten working'days in which to resubmit their application.
 Failure to do so within this time period, or resubmittal of a deficient application, will
 result in the application being processed according to the new, rather than the initial,
 filing date.                                                 -
                        ".. , •                   ~            .          - f,  ,
 Discussion: Because written guarantees are restricted only to units that IPPs
 propose to construct, it is likely that applications for written guarantees would
 be submitted to EPA gradually over an extended period of time,  rather than
 in a lump that exhausts the 50,000 allowances that are available. Thus, it does
 not appear at this time that other methods .for establishing the order of
 applications, such as lotteries, are necessary for this program. Providing IPPs
 who have filed deficient applications additional time to refile will slow the
 approval process only when the sum of the  contingency guarantees approved
 and those applied for in "deficient" applications exceeds the cap of 50,000
 allowances.         .

 Time Period During which the Written  Guarantee Must be Exercised  and
 Payment  Made:  \yritten guarantees must be  exercised during a two-week
 period in March-of each year beginning  in the year 2000.  Full payment for
 the allowances.requested, must  be made at  that,time.  Any  allowances
 reserved through written guarantees thai are not purchased at this time  will
 be placed in the direct sales-program as spot allowances, if the program has
 not already been terminated.  If it Has  been terminated, such allowances  will
 be added to the spot allowances offered in the following year's auction.

 Discussion: The proposed time period during which IPPs must exercise their
 option  to purchase  allowances at the fixed price of $1500 each (inflation
 adjusted) allows IPPs to participate in the  annual auction.to obtain needed
 allowances (at a lower price) and provides some time to purchase allowances.
 in the private market should they be unsuccessful in the auction.  IPPs must
 exercise their written guarantees for EPA to know how many allowances are
 available for sale in the direct sales program.  The  earlier in the year this is
 done, the longer the direct sales program will be available as a last resort for
 operators of other facilities.

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3.  Terminating the Written Guarantee Program                                    '       v,

   o  Written Guarantees and Termination of the Direct Sales Program:  Termination of    ^^
      the direct sales program will not result in termination of written guarantees.  EPA
      will maintain a separate subaccount to cover allowances  reserved through written
      guarantees.

      Discussion: The Act requires the Administrator to terminate the direct sales
      subaccount if less than 20 percent of the allowances available have been
      purchased in any two consecutive calendar years. The Act does not indicate
      whether termination of the direct sales subaccount also terminates the written
      guarantees.  However,  linking the termination of  direct sales to written
      guarantees in this manner would contradict the plain meaning of a "guarantee"
      and would be at odds with the intended purpose of the written guarantees,
      which is to assure  lenders that IPPs will have access to allowances over the
      operating lifetime  of the planned facility.

   o  Termination of Written Guarantees: Written guarantees will be terminated by EPA
      if the planned project has not begun operating by the year 2000 or the planned start-
      up date  of the facility, whichever is  later, or if the  applicant fails to make a
      continuing good-faith effort to obtain allowances.

      Discussion: The language in the Act implies  that EPA could  terminate a
      written guarantee  if continued efforts to obtain allowances are not pursued.
      It does not indicate whetfier the  successful  acquisition of  allowances  is
      grounds  for terminating the written  guarantee.  If the market  price for
      allowances  is less than $1500 and a market for allowances develops as
      expected, it is likely that most, if not all, IPPs with written guarantees would
      not exercise their  rights.  However, if the price of allowances  rises .above
    ^$1500 at some point in time, IPPs would want to begin exercising their rights
      to purchase allowances as granted in the written guarantees.  In this situation,
      written guarantees would function less as a safety valve and more as a subsidy.

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                                  DIRECT SALES

                                  Discussion Paper   :    * .

       The Clean Air Act amendments of 1990 require that EPA sell 25,000 advance
 allowances (useable 7 years after purchase) each year beginning in 1993. Beginning in the
 year 2000 and after, EPA will be selling an  additional 25,000  allowances called spot
 allowances. Spot allowances will be useable upon purchase. The Act requires that spot and
 advance allowances be sold for $1500 per allowance (adjusted by. the consumer price index
 for 1990). Requests to purchase  allowances shall be approved in the order of receipt until
 all allowances are solid.   After requests to purchase allowances have been  approved,
 applicants are'required to pay 50% of the total purchase price within 6 months  after their
 approval. The remainder of the price will be paid on or before the transfer of allowances!
 Proceeds from the sale will be transferred within 90 days after the sale, on a pro rata basis
 to those from whom
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4. First-come, first-served: The Act requires that requests to purchase allowances from the
Direct .Sales  Program must be approved by EPA in the order in which applications are
received (after IPPs with  written guarantees have  been given the option to purchase
allowances).  If the price of allowances is, or expected to be, below $1500, the direct sales
program is unlikely to be used and could realistically end in 1995 if less than 20% of the
total allowances are sold in the two previous years. However, if the price rises above $1500,
the direct sales program could be substantially over-subscribed.  A preferred option for
awarding allowances in  the direct sales program includes:

  o   Interpret the language of the Act literally and establish a queue of applicants based
      on the order in which applications (in some standardized form) are received after a
      certain time on a given day.                       .      '

S.Over-subscription to the Program: Over-subscription to the program.could be handled by
EPA  establishing  a queue  of  applicants and "wait-listing" those who are not allocated
allowances. If there are not enough allowances left to satisfy demand .at.the end of the line,
but before the waiting list, EPA could check the application of a buyer, at the end of the
.queue for a box on the application indicating if that buyer would accept a partial allocation.
If that applicant checked no, the applicant next in line would be considered.
6. Requests to purchase and approval pf those requests:  As the CAA states, direct sale
allowances will be allocated on a first come, first served basis, and applicants to the direct
sale must send in a 50% deposit within 6 months after their request to purchase has been
approved. If the "request to purchase" is simply an application indicating name, address, and
the, amount requested to buy, EPA has little to "approve" since anyone can buy allowances
and in any amount.  Therefore, the purpose of the EPA "approval" is simply to allow the
buyer to secure the option to buy allowances within six months.  EPA prefers the. following
option:

  o    Interpret the  language  literally  and  allow potential  buyers to send in their
       applications after a certain time period.  Applications would be approved on a first
       come, first served basis  as they came in;  and allowances would  be  reserved as
       approvals are made.  Applicants have to send in a 50% deposit within 6 months (or
       before the date of the sale)  after approval or lose their  place  in line.    The
       remainder  of the cost will be  paid on the date of the sale.  This option allows
       applicants time to buy allowances from other sources (private market or the auction)
       before committing to the direct sale. This option, however, will most likely permit
       frivolous applications because  it costs nothing to apply. If the direct sale became
       over-subscribed, EPA. could "wait list" applicants.  Those who fail to pay their 50%
    •   in six months, will, lose their status in line, allowing people on the waiting list to
       move up. Previously wait-listed-people will then be "approved" and have six months

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       or until the close of the sale to deposit 50% or make the fall payment EPA will not
       reasonably know how many allowances will actually be bought until all deposits are
       in.              ..       •' •"  '         -   -  •                   '.'-•
  A certified or cashiers checks for the 50% deposit and the remaining balance should be
 the preferred method of payment: All outstanding payments need to be received by EPA
 by COB on the last day of the sale period. Otherwise, allowances not fully paid for will go
 into the auction subaccount and any deposits will be forfeited. Within 90 days after the end
"of the sale period all proceeds shall be distributed pro rata including any forfeited deposits.
 To ensure authenticity and streamline processing,  applications should consist of written
 standardized forms which EPA would develop.       .           .  •                 -
 7. Payment'and price for allowances from the "advance sales"'program: The Act requires
 that an applicant must pay 50 percent of the.sales price ($1500 inflation adjusted) within 6
 months, after approval to purchase and the remainder on or  before  the .transfer of
 allowances. Because this provision .applies  to "advance" sales as well as  "spot" sales, the
 purchaser is paying for an allowance in the  advance sale it will be unable to use for seven
 years. This .provision appears to be fair and; reasonable and eliminates the administrative
 burden of having to track deposit payments for advance allowances. The buyer will be
.acquiring the right to the allocation of allowances just as if it were purchasing another firm's
 accounts receivable; .Thisi bririgSv the  buyer economic and practical advantages at the
 expense of the unit from which,allowances were  withheld, even though the allowances
 cannot be used for compliance immediately.  In addition, because of the likelihood that
 inflation rates will continue to rise slightly every year, and the $1500 price for allowances*
 will always be adjusted by the 1990 GPI, the nominal price paid for an advance allowance
 in the year 2000 will be less than that for a spot allowance bought in 2007.  Though the CPI
 adjustment does  not  include discounting for  the. time  value of money, the  difference in
 nominal inflation-adjusted prices at least partially mitigates the failure to discount further.
 In addition, not-discounting for the time value of money  is the premium buyers must pay
 for the right to circumvent the market to ownership of allowances seven years in advance
 of their use date.

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A-7  .             '          .      •
   -.  '             THE ALLOWANCE  TRANSFER SYSTEM
                        .Discussion Paper

I.   Background      "...
                 «.   sa   •   -  .  '    .,••,•;.

     Developing  regulations >and •procedures  will involve using  a
core workgroup of relevant offices in EPA.  The core workgroup will
address  the options  and  issues ' involved with, promulgating  the
allowance tracking- ..system, allowance transfer  system regulations
(trading and banking),  and the auctions, and sales regulations.  The
workgroup's analyses', and issues will be presented to the acid rain
advisory committee  ,(ARAC)  for review.  . In some cases,  this will
involve developing a"strawman proposal,  and  in other cases  it may
involve presenting an options paper.  . This paper examines.some of
the  issues  ..surrounding the ;,allowance  transfer .system; how  the
allowance  transfer  .system  could  be  designed,.  EPA's  role  in
receiving and.recording allowance transfers', and considerations for
allowances: allocated to "opt-in"; sources..

II.  Introduction          v

     EPA- must ..proinulgate  a regulation to establish the allowance
system by May 15, 1992V Tinder The Clean Air Act amendments of 1990
•(The Act), the allowance system  shall include,  but not be limited
to,  requirements for  the  allocation, ' transfer,  and  use  of
allowances.  Regarding  .transfers.  The Act states that,* "Transfers
of allowances  shall  not be effective until  written certification
of .the transfer,.signed by a responsible official of each party to
the  transfer,  is received  and  recorded  by the. Administrator."
Additionally,  the .'Act  requires  EPA's  regulations to .permit  the
transfer of  allowances.prior to the  issuance.of such.allowances.
Such recorded pre-.issuance  transfers will  be deducted  from  the
number  of  allowances which would otherwise  be allocated  to  the
transferor and added to those allowances issued to the transferee.
In addition, EPA .must  establish  an allowance tracking system (for
issuing, recording, and tracking.allowances), which specifies all
necessary requirements.for an orderly and competitive functioning
of the allowance system. ..''.'   ".-,   ;

     The  Act provides  the  general  framework  for the allowance
transfer "system. It does  not, however, specify  how the system is
to be designed.   Designing a simple  and^. efficient transfer system
is crucial to the success of the acid-rain program.  EPA's role in
receiving and recording allowance transfers  is also important for
ensuring  an efficient, market, for  allowance trading.   For  the
.purposes  of discussion,  this paper  presents one.  possible model
for the allowance transfer system and EPA's  role in receiving and
recording transfers.   This paper is  divided  into three parts: 1)
Basic  Transfers,  2)  The  Notification  Process,  and  3)  special
Considerations for Opt-in  Source Allowances.

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III. Issues         ...                       .

A.   Basic Transfers — One Possible Model

     Under the Act, affected units will be allocated sulfur dioxide
emission allowances.  Phase I allowance allocations are listed in
Title IV of  the Act,  and Phase II  allowance allocations will be
calculated by EPA. Beginning in 1995 for  Phase I units and in 2000
for Phase  II units, allowances will be issued annually.   While
allowances will  be  issued annually, affected units  nay .transfer
future year  allowances to which  they  are entitled  based  on the
statutory  allocation  formulas.     While the statute  allocates
allowances  "for  units"   it  permits transfers  among  designated
representatives  and anv  person.   This means  that  any  person not
initially allocated allowances that purchases and holds allowances
would need a separate account in  the  allowance  tracking system.
Thus, EPA  will need to  develop procedures  for  establishing new
accounts.

     i.    Allowance Transactions

     EPA's role in allowance trading is  to receive  and record
allowance transfers.  Streamlining the mechanics of receiving and
recording  allowance transfers  is  vital for  facilitating market
transactions.  In order to foster an effective trading program, the
process should entail  the minimum  involvement of  EPA consistent
with the statutory requirements.

     Utilities as well as non-utility participants will generally
be free to work out any transfer they want. When two  parties agree
to a transfer,  they must notify EPA to make  it "official".  Once
EPA records  the transfer  (by debiting the  seller's account and
crediting the buyer's account) in the allowance tracking  system it
becomes official.

     At the  risk of  oversimplification,  a transfer could be made
the same way a bank check is written.   The  seller can write the
"allowance check"  and give it'to the buyer. The  buyer can then
endorse it and cash it in by  sending it to EPA for recordation or
could choose to  endorse it,  but  instead of notifying  EPA and
triggering the account debiting and crediting  mechanism, simply
sell the allowance "check" to  someone else.  In this case the check
could change hands many times before a  buyer  decides  to endorse it
and send it  to EPA  for recordation (i.e. debiting the account of
the initial  seller  and crediting the account of the last buyer).
The  "check"  will  need  to  contain  certain   information  on both
parties,  in  order for  EPA  to record  the transfer.    Below is  a
potential list of the minimum information EPA would need  from both
parties to record a transfer.

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 •The seller would need to'include:
     '  v-'  .--           -   '      . '         .. v-  •   •"     " •
 -    Unit  and  designated  representative  system  identification
    .  numbers • ••'             '". ,''• •-.•,.;•  ...   ..-*.'
      Name and telephone number of'designated representative
 -    Signature :  (and -date  .of   signature)  '  of   the  designated
      representiative  -'."v- -..  - '<•.  w-.      .•- .- ' : ,-  '-. "-  '-.'
      Amounts . and  use  dates  of   allowances  being  transferred
      (earliest-date, each allowance can be used)   :               .

 The buyer would need to,  included      ,->  • •;,                /

      Unit  and  designated  representative  system  identification
      numbers          . -       *.                 ,  '          •   "'.
      Name-and telephone number;of  designated representative
 -    Signature  .(and  date  of   signature)    of,  the  designated
      represent at iye   ... -         . - v   -        .

      A sample transfer.might work as follows.   Unit A enters into
 an agreement  and sells  allowances to a broker by writing him .a
 "check11  (Note:  unit A could either' make -the ?'check"  out rto the
 broker .or not) . The broker intends to  hold .the ?!check"  for several
 months (thinking al-lbwance prices  may  rise)  and then  to sell these
- allowances to another unit that needs them for'compliance  purposes.
 Because he's planning:to sell, the  "check", he  does'not  fill in his
 information  arid: only, .endorses  the ^check" if .made out. to him.
 Several months later when  the broker finally  sells the allowances
 to  unit Br. -unit'tB. "would vf ill  in  its. information,  endorse the
 !.'check"  and  notify  EPA. so the, allowances'  can: be  officially
 transferred to,dts account.   If all  the procedures are followed
 correctly; .EPA-would vrecord rthe-transfer to  make it official by
 debiting, unit A^s .account and crediting  unit B's.  Consistent with
 the statutory requirements, the notification  (the check)  must.be
 .sighed by  responsible-'officials of both parties to the  transfer,
 in ^ijis ;case  the designated.representatives of unit  A  and unit B.
 Infniis  instance,  the\broker never 'Officially.,,held .the allowances
 since, ..whether endorsed or  not, the check  was never,'presented to
 EPA.for. the  purposes of crediting,the allowances to the broker's
 account.   They were officially,., held, by unit A,  even though the
 broker bought them,  until EPA recorded  the. transfer to  unit B..
    ..  .'•<*: ••.'•*•,--. ','-. .< ... v   ,-.• ....-'     • - -.-•.•.-* '.        .- ., :
      ii.,. Notifacation Process   .,  •

      There  would  be two, possible" methods   for  notifying  (i.e.
 cashing the "check")- EPA-(or its agent)  of allowance  transfers;  1)
 electronic  reporting and  2)   written  reporting.    ^Electronic
 reporting would be similar to electronic funds transfers  currently
 used-in the bank ing., industry.,  EPA could  produce a standardized
: electronic" format  that  would  be completed  by  the  party .that
 endorses  the check .and sent to.EPA via computer. . In this case,
 Personal. Identification Numbers  (PINs)  would  be used  in place  of
 signatures. .  . For   written- notification EPA could  produce  an

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"allowance  check" which  would be  a .standardized form  to. help
facilitate transfer reporting.  Utilities choosing to send written
notification  could  either  fax  the  information  to  EPA at  the
tracking  center   (where  data  entry  takes  place)   for  quick
recordation, or mail (certified?)  it to EPA at the tracking center.
Faxing  the  information  is  only  possible i'f  EPA does  not need
original signatures of the designated representatives.  :,

     Once EPA has  received the transfer notification (the "check") ,
the data entry team would need to make sure the  form is correctly
filled out, the information  is complete,  and that the seller has
enough current or future allowances  to cover  the  trade. This would
include:  l)  confirming that  both parties  have  accounts in  the
allowance system  (adding an  account for  any party that is  not
already  in  the  system),  2)  checking  the  number and dates  of
allowances,  and 3) making  sure the form is signed and dated by both
responsible officials  (also  known as designated  representatives)
or that  the PIN  numbers  are  correct  in the  case of electronic
reporting.                       .'••••      •   .

     If the transfer information is complete and the- seller holds
or will hold enough allowances, EPA  (data entry)  would record the
transfer  by entering  it in  the tracking  system  (debiting  the
seller's account  and crediting the  buyer's account).   Certainly,
utilities will be  free to trade future allowances to which they are
entitled.   However, EPA  would riot  allow a  unit to  trade more
allowances than it had or would be entitled to in the future.  For
example, if unit A has  a Phase II  allocation  of 10,000 allowances,
it would  be able  to transfer  up  to  10,000 allowances each year.
If unit  A wrote  a  "check"  for 11,000 year  2010 allowances,  EPA
would not record  the transfer and would notify both the buyer and
seller of the check that -unit A has  insufficient allowances to
cover the transaction .                   '"•'.-''  .    '
          '  '                                  's
     Once'EPA records.the transfer  it is official.  The transfer
participants would know it's  official when the  transaction appears
in their  account  in the  allowance  tracking  system (showing the
transfers which  took place  and their new balance) .    No permit
       Allowing affected sources to trade allowances they are not
entitled  to  could  erode  emissions  reductions  by  implicitly
permitting otherwise unauthorized  "borrowing"  of allowances.  To
prevent this, the mechanics or protocol of the allowance transfer
system  must  block  transfers  of   allowances  not held  by the
transferor.     .                       .

     2 Similar to a monthly bank statement,  tracking system account
statements might have  to  be  issued on a regular basis- throughout
the  year.    These  statements  could  show  the  account  holder's
beginning  balance,  all  transfers  which  took  place,  and ending
balance.                 '

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 review would  be  necessary  or  required  for sources  that • simply
•transfer allowances. •  If the  information  is  incomplete or the
 seller does not have enough allowances to  cover  the trade/ then
 EPA would*not record such transfers and would notify both parties
 as to  why the trade  was not  recorded.  'At the end of the year, EPA
 would  do the accounting procedures  and send  put a  final  notice3.

 Discussion  Questions!     •                    •'    '"'.-•        -
               , • t              ..     •,-•',4 : :                 ,   " '*•
     •Is this "checking account", model appropriate for the allowance <
     trading!  system . (taking., into-  account  potential . tax  and ""
     .'account ing, implications)?   ."    .                    •   ,
 •"..•'*'    ".'...»'     *      -    ,                .      ;
 -  •  Consistent  with the  Uniform /Commercial  Coder  does  the
     "allowance .check"  need to be  recorded  within a given amount
.'  .,  of time (six  months  for example)> or else become invalid?

     While  electronic .or faxed transfer notifications. would be
     enough  for  purposes,  should  EPA  require   a written  copy
      (perhaps the original) of the transfer form for EPA's internal
     recordkeeping?  '              ;
                             '"•'.-.<.'                        '
 -  .  Similar to a monthly  bank  statement;   should EPA  send out
     periodic account balance statements to all  account holders?
     How often?         ...        v  ; . ;
             -"•--.       '      .      •'*»",-,'   "        ...      '  .
     After  EPA. records a transfer, should  EPA send each account
    . holder a-notice showing the- transaction which took place?

     If the information  is incomplete or the seller does not have
    .enough allowances  to cover .the  trade,  how should EPA notify
    . the trading parties  that the transfer can not .be recorded?

     '  • .'••• '    . '.-  < •  -v /•:  ' '    , "•-:.• •  .
:B.   Special Considerations for Opt-in Source Allowances

 '•,  • The , preceding -. discussion  covers  the   allowance system • in
 general.  However,  allowances allocated  to  sources that elect-in
 to  the allowance  system-  are V subject  to  certain  additional
 limitations .that  will-  affect how  these allowances  are treated.
 Specifically, any unit that elects-in to the  allowance system shall
'not transfer or bank allowances  produced as a result of reduced
 utilization  or  shutdown.   This .has  implications for  both the
 allowance transfer and tracking systems.

 --  The ^opt-in"  allowances -would  be  subject* to  the  same.
 requirements as other  allowances,  .except when an opt-in source
 shuts-down  or reduces its utilization.  In such cases, the excess
 allowances, (e.g.  produced through  shut-down) would stay with the
       End-of-year procedures will need  to  be developed.

        ••.'..      '     '•    5

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 source to which they were allocated.  Then, at the end of the year
 these allowances would disappear because they could not be banked
 or  carried  over..    The mechanics of  handling  these  "opt-in"
 allowances must.be consistent with the larger allowance system such
 that recordation would not occur until the year in which allowances
 become useful — even for future  allowance transfers consummated
 and  recorded  with EPA  several  years   in  advance.   Whenever  a
 transfer of allowances from  an  opt-in  source is sent to  EPA for
 recordation,  the actual  physical debiting and crediting could not
 take place until the end of  the year.  Recordation would take place
'only after the determination-that the source was in full operation
 throughout  the year and that  no. allowances were made available as
 a result of reduced utilization'or shut-down.  During the course of
 the calendar  year,  the number of allowances in accounts that have
 pending .opt-in allowance transfers would not reflect the debit and
 credit associated with recordation,  but would contain a note that
 the sources had notified EPA of an allowance transfer'and that the
 transfer is pending .

     . This poses a risk to purchasers of "opt-in" allowances.  For
 example, assume an industrial unit has elected-in to the system and
 is allocated  5,000  allowances per year  starting in the year 2000.
 The industrial  unit immediately  sells  2,500  allowances for each
 year from 2000 to 2010 to an independent power producer (IPP).  The
 industrial  unit writes an  "allowance check"  and gives  it to the
 IPP, who endorses it and sends it to EPA for recordation.  Both the
 industrial  unit's and IPP's accounts would now contain a note that
 such allowance transfers are pending.   After the end  of the year
 2000,  EPA  determines  that the  industrial  source was   in  full
 operation throughout  the year 2000 and subsequently  records the
 first transfer  of  2,500 allowances  (by debiting the  industrial
 source's account and  crediting the IPP's account).  On  March 31,
 2001, the industrial  unit shuts  down permanently.   At this point,
 the IPP will  have received  only  the 2,500  allowances for the year
 2000.  The  remaining  2,500  allowances each year.from 2001  to 2010
 would not be  transferred to the IPP's account or carried  over in
 the industrial sources account.  Therefore, these allowances would
 never be made available for use to offset emissions.  Clearly, this
 presents a  problem  for  the  IPP,  who  was  planning  on  these
 allowances  in  order  to comply.   The  buyer  must  bear,-the risks
 involved with purchasing "opt-in" allowances.
     4 This  would only apply to  opt-in sources, not to  existing
 utility  units.

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A-8
    ISSUE  PAPER ON MULTI-UNIT ALLOWANCE  POOLING FOR COMPLIANCE
I.  Background

     Some utilities  "pool"  electricity  production across several
units.  Within a pool electric generation is treated as fungible so
that generation demand  is dispatched to a  given  unit  within - the
pool based on a variety of economic and other efficiency factors.
The scope of such pools varies/ sometimes involving only a single
operating company,  sometimes including units from more.than one
holding company.   Title  IV treats sulfur  dioxide emissions and
allowances  as 'fungible  as  well  since  allowances  are  freely
transferable among units and a unit  simply  has to  hold allowances
in an amount equal to its emissions in order to meet compliance.
                '•              ";      '             •
     The language of the Senate Committee report suggests that one
of  the  purposes' -of creating  a  system of  fungible  allowances/
emissions was'to allow power pools to continue to  operate as such
and to integrate emissions/allowance dispatching into their overall
dispatching ^protocol'."   ~  .".. :  ,          •
II .'  Statutory Language
     This paper will net address the legality of permitting pool*
• based compliance in lieu of unit-by-unit •compliance.  Instead, it
will focus  on the practical  and policy consequences of the two
different  approaches.    Clearly,  though,  .the. statute  includes
provisions that, to 'a  small; extent,  open the question. of whether
pool-wide compliance is permissible.                         .,

     Section 403 (g) states:

     "It shall  be  unlawful for any affected  unit  to emit, sulfur
     dioxide in excess of  the number  of allowances held -for that
     unit for that year by the owner or operator of the  unit."

     Section 403 (d) (2) provides:
                                         *• f            f
     "In order  to insure electric  reliability,  such, regulations
     shall not prohibit or affect temporary increases and  decreases
     .in emissions within utility systems, power pools of  utilities
     entering into allowance  pool  agreements,  that  result" from
     their operations,  including emergencies and central  dispatch,
     and such temporary emissions increases and decreases  shall not-
     require  transfer of  allowances, among  units  nor  shall  it
     require recordatioh.  The owners or operators: of such '-units
     shall act through a  designated  representative.  Notwithstand-
     ing the preceding sentence, the^total  tonnage of emissions in
     any calendar  year (calculated at the end.  thereof)  from 'all

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     units in such a utility system,  power pool,  or allowance pool
     agreements  shall  not  exceed  the total  allowances  for such
     units for the calendar year concerned."
III.  Impact of Unit-by-Unit Compliance on Power/Allowance Pools

     It  appears  that even  under a unit-based  compliance regime
utility  systems and power pools will still be able to use pooling
strategies in meeting both their emissions limitation and dispatch
requirements.

     Logically, each  utility  system and power pool will probably
choose to pool the allowances allocated to  each of its units and
integrate its dispatch and emissions control strategies  so that at
the end  of each year  total emissions from all of the system's or
pool's units will not  exceed the number of pooled allowances.  Even
under a  pool-wide  compliance regime, to effectuate this strategy,
the  system's  managing  authority,  would  have  to  cull and sum
emissions data from each unit  in the system  in order to determine
total,   pool-wide  emissions.     Permitting   pool-wide  compliance
demonstrations  would  simplify the management  authority's  task,
however.  Once  total  emissions were determined, this total  would
merely have to be matched to the total  number of  allowances in the
pool.

     At  the  same  time,  though,  requiring the  allowance  pool to
demonstrate compliance on a unit-by unit-basis does not impose an
appreciable  burden.   Under such a regime,   the  pool  could  still
operate  on the  basis  of  aggregated emissions and allowances.  To
reconcile such  operations  with the unit-based .compliance regime,
the pool' s management authority would  only  have to draw from the
allowance  pool  under  the  authority's  control  the   number  of
allowances  needed  to cover  a  unit's emissions  and  assign  or
transfer those allowances to the.unit in question.  On a mechanical
level,  such  a procedure might entail the  manager's  creating in
EPA's allowance tracking system an allowance account into which all
the allowances held for each unit in the pool would be transferred.
At the end of the  year, following the Agency's standard allowance
transfer procedures, the pool manager would  transfer from the pool
account  into each unit's  individual  account the number of allowanc-
es  needed  to cover  each unit's  emissions  for that year.   This
method  —  transferring individual  unit  allowances into a single
pool-wide account and then transferring allowances from the account
back to  the individual units  in  amounts needed to cover emissions
— would not only replicate pooling  but also allow the pool manager
to  circumvent  the more complex,  and  unncessary procedure  of
transferring  allowances to and from  individual units.   other,
similar  options could  be  crafted.   Thus,  the  additional step
imposed  on the pool manager by  a unit-based compliance regime  would
consist  of simply  sorting each unit's emissions  and allowances by

                                 2

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means of the EPA's  allowance account and transfer  system without
interferring with the .ability of the-pool  to operate as.such  in
actual«: practice. ,  .>•*•'-•>-, ,- '. f  •••••.'   -•''.'..
. . ..   --...'. -• -V  '•  \  * - V-" .    ':'.  *   '•  >    ':•''•
     Because allowances and emissions'are fungible and because all-
units are included  in Phase II, no special  regulatory provisions
would be.required in .order to allow pools to function-In this way •
within a unit-based compliance framework.   In Phase  I,  however,
some pools may-find themselves with some units that  are affected
and  some that  are not.    In. these  cases,  the  statute  permits
affected units.to submit substitution plans to include unaffected
units, in  a  compliance program.   Accordingly,  a  power  pool  that
included  some  Phase  I. units could, submit  a substitution  plan
bringing all of .its units into .Phase -I.  The statutory provisions
governing .substitution plans appear to contemplate only unit-by-
unit substitution,, but this only means,that EPA would accommodate
pools .as if all the units were operating  in the Phase II system
(but with emissions  limits and allowance allocations ..appropriate'to
Phase I reduction requirements).  Pursuant  to the requirements of
the  substitution  plan provisions and  the  specifications  of  each
plan, .the/ Agency  would  establish  allowance  accounts for  each
substitution unit  and., permit;'transfer  of .allowances-Into'a  pool
account and then out-.to each unit's'account as needed to cover its
emissions.      . -.''    •' ..r   ,•--.'.'    •. •   •«•'''.•"     •  ,
       •  .'*     .-',.'•  •••*-''  ' .  '•••.• •• '"';':  •.-• "     '";   ''.'''
IV.  Effect of Pool-Based Compliance on  Compliance and Enforcement

     The compliance, permitting and; enforcement- scheme of the • title
appears .clearly to rest on the individual unit or plant.  Not only*
are. the statutory, emissions limitation  requirements  expressed
exclusively in terms .of the  individual unit,  but  the functional
elements of  the title' — .the  permits,  the  emissions :monitoring
requirements and the.imposition .of liability for excess emissions -
- depend  on  a unit-based approach..  Under  such  an approach, the
regyiatory authority, need  look only at a unit's permit, .allowance
accSunt  and.emissions  data  .to determine  whether a  unit is  in
compliance;, or to demonstrate that  a  unit  is liable, for excess
emissions fees  and offsets as a result of-being out of compliance.

  -,  - Under; a  pool-wide  compliance- regime,  the  basic compliance
elements could perhaps be fashioned to capture an aggregation of
units.  Emissions monitoring; requirements would be  imposed on each
individual plant and the total emissions-limitation  requirement  for
the pool as well as the total allowance allocation would be equal
to  the sum of  those for each individual unit in the. pool. .In all
likelihood the permits issued to.individual units  in the pool would
have to be linked  to an  overall permit  issued to the  pool  as a
whole...   -    '"•-.     :  .    -  .- . -•  .•••*••••  -•.'•  ;•'. „;.-".   '    "'..   ~

     Most difficult, though, would.be preserving the self-executing
elements of the.excess emissions requirements of the: title', m  the
case of the  $2,000, per ton .fee,  .the pool's permit would have to

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 make  the pool's management  authority directly and. automatically
 liable  for payment, with no-account taken,  for liability purposes,
 of questions of apportionment of the payment among the units within
 the pool.  Such questions would be disposed' of by  private arrange-
 ment  among the pool members  (even in a unit-by-unit regime with
 individual  unit owners  and operators  paying the  fee, the pool
 arrangement  would most  likely provide  for a defraying of such
 expenses among the pool members).                            '

      The self-executing element of the offset requirement might be
 nearly  impossible to replicate.  The statute requires that where a
 unit's  emissions exceed its allowances,  the Agency is to reduce  the
 unit's  subsequent allocations to offset  the excess.  In the context
 of a  pool,  the Agency would be required to withold allowances so
 that  the pool's subsequent aggregate  allocations  would  be reduced
 in the  amount necessary to offset the pool's excess emissions.   The
 .statutory allowance  allocation provisions are based on  individual
 units.   Thus,  the only plausible way  to effectuate  a reduction in
 the pool's aggregate allowances would be to include in each unit's
.permit  a statement  making the unit liable for a  reduction in  its
 allowance allocation equal to  its  pro rata  share  of any emissions
 excess  of which the  pool  as  a  whole may be  guilty.   While this is
 not  impossible,  it does  suggest how  complex a system  of permits
 would be required to subject the units in a pool to precisely those
 emissions/allowance  compliance requirements imposed in  the title.

      In Phase  II, where the program will rely on state authorities
 for permitting and compliance, pool-based compliance could present
 practical problems  especially if multi-state pools are involved.
 A pool, liable for excess fees and  offsets as a result of aggregate
 emissions exceeding  aggregate  allowances, could frustrate a state
 enforcement  authority or citizens group by basing  a challenge to
 liability on  data  or factors pertinent  to  plants outside  the
 authority's  geographical  jurisdiction.

      In addition, state authorities could have a formidable burden
 to bear  in  approving compliance  plans and  issuing permits  for
 multi-state  pools and  in ensuring enforcement and  liability across
 several jurisdictions.  This, as well  as the general need to ensure
 liability for the pool  as  a  legal  .entity,  could  result  in  the
 compliance planning  and permitting process  presenting significant
 burdens for the  units in the power pool  itself.   This  becomes
 especially clear  if  contrasted  with  the  option  of  submitting
 individual unit plans stating a commitment to hold allowances equal
 to emissions  and  simply  engaging -the  mechanics  of transferring
 allowances among  units in the  pool at the end of  each year.

      Finally,  any enforcement  authority's burden would be signifi-
 cantly  complicated under a regime in which compliance and liability
 was  pool-based.   Instead of being able  to bring  an enforcement
 action  in a -context  in  which : the  inquiry was  confined  to  the
 emissions data of one plant,  an enforcement action  against a pool

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could .require the authority  to confront disputes about  emissions
data'for every unit.in the pool.

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                    MULTI-UNIT POOLING EXAMPLE

 Pool  ABC  consists ^ of . 5  plants  and  10  units.    Its  original
 allocation oftallowances,  by unit are:
           * _«"7 .;•"-"...•••'*•,'
                    *.**""""                        ' ; •  -A
• Unit       Allocat-ion '•' "'."*'

 1          1,000      -•             .
 2        .  1,000-       :
 3          1,000'  '..'''"      :
 4          1,000     „"-•...
 5... -      1,000  :
 6          1,000        •-.'.•
 7          2^000
 8          2,000
 9          2,000       .
 10        2/000 .-  *
              ;  .               . .    s.

 TOTAL    14,000               .

                                *, _ ".i
 POOL-WIDE COMPLIANCE

      In Case 1, the total  emissions of the pool are less than the
 total  allowances -held  by   the,  'pool   (14,000  allowances  held;
 emissions of 13,650) .  Under a :unit-by-unit .compliance requirement,
 Units 4,  5 and 7 would have been; out  of compliance.

      In Case 2,  emissions  are higher than in Case 1 for Units 1, 2
 and 3.   Emissions for the  pool  exceed the allowances held (14,250
 vs. 14,000). .The pool would be out of compliance as a whole, with
 5  units  (1,  3,  4,  5, and 7) where emissions  exceeded available
 allowances.
                                  CASE 1           CASE 2
           Allowances held     In-Compliance   Out of Compliance
Unit      for Year X	     Emissions  	   Emissions	

1          1,000                    900           . 1,200
2          1,000                    950            1,000
3          1,000                    950            1,300
4          1,000                  1,100            1,100
5          1,000                  1,050            1,050
6          1,000                    900              900
7          2,000                  2,100            2,100
8          2,000                  2,000            2,000
9          2,000                  1,800            1,800
10        2,000                  1,900            1,900

TOTAL    14,000                 13,650           14,250

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Unit by Unit Compliance

     In  Case  1,  the  pool is  able  to make  inter-pool allowance
transfers to cover the potential excess emissions in Units 4, 5 and
7, and still maintain a carry-over balance of 350 allowances into
the new year.                                       '             -

     In  Case  2, the  pool  cannot  come into  compliance by merely
conducting trades with-in the pool—an overall, poolwide deficit of
350 allowances  exists.   This shortfall would have  to  be made up
through  purchase of  allowances  from outside the..pool.    In  the
example  trades, Units 3  and  5  would be  subject to  the excess
emissions fee  and the offset  requirements without  an additional
infusion of  allowances.    However,  if the compliance  regime  was
genuinely pool-based  and allowances  were  held in  one pool-wide
account, the enforcement authority would not be able to attribute
excess emissions to individual units.

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•
KEY ISSUES ON OPT-IN
       TITLE IV. SECTION 410

            Prepared by
          Ann D. Murtlow
       The AES Corporation
              Do industrial boilers fall under the category of process sources in
              Section 410 (d)?       .           ,

              The term "process source" is not defined in the Amendments.  Rather
              • it appears that Section 410 (d) gives the Administrator authority to
              define this by regulation, as well as to define the requirements that
              such a-source must meet in order to opt-in and receive allowances.
              It does appear, however, that an industrial boiler, by definition, was not
              intended to be included under 410 (d), as a process source, but rather
              under 410 (a) as a "unit that is not, nor will become, an affected unit
              -under Section 403 (e), 404, or 405". By definition in Section 402 (24) an
              industrial source includes "units" (defined as a fossil fueled combustion
              device) that do not serve a generator that produces electricity,
              nonutility units and process sources.  The differentiation between units
              and process sources indicates that industrial boilers" are separate from
              the definition'of.process sources.

              If an industrial unit opts-in under Section 410, what emission rate is
              used to calculate its allowances?
               •           ..••••••           •
              Section 410 (c) indicates that a non-affected unit (which for the
              purposes of this paper will not include process sources) that opt-in
              will be issued allowances based on the lesser of the unit's 1985 actual or
              allowable emission rate. If the unit did not operate in 1985,  the lesser
              of the actual or allowable emission rate from a .later year, as determined
              by the Administrator, will be used.  This implies that full credit will be
              given to these units even if the emission rate is greater than  the Phase  ,
               1 and Phase 2 emission limitations of 2.5 Ib/MMBtu and 1.2 Ib/MMBtu,
               respectively!.. At the December 1990 Allowance Trading Subcommittee
               Meeting, Joe. Goffman confirmed that this was the legislature's intent.
               He indicated that the unit's allowances would be part of the industrial
               source inventory used by EPA to track and quantify emissions from these
               sources.                                     •                ,    -

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 What procedure will be used to determine eligibility under the opt-in
 provisions? How long will this process take?
          1   *~    •'(-'••              .  •
 Section 410.(a) indicates that "An .election shall be submitted, to the
 Administrator for approval, along with a permit application and
 proposed compliance plan".  EPA has indicated that a standard
 application form wpuld be created for affected units. This type
 of standardized form would'also-be useful for streamlining opt-ins.
 It also appears, given the discussion in bullet #2 above,  that the
 submittal of compliance plans will only be applicable to process  units
 which need to clean up  to reach the emission limitation determined to
 be acceptable by the Administrator under Section 410 (d). This
 emission limitation would then be used to calculate the number of
 allowances to be issued. The lengtrrof the election process is also of
 concern since the creation of allowances under Section 410 may become
 a tool to support financing of IFF projects before the allowance market
 fully matures.           •    ..

 Can a unit clean up sometime after the date of enactment but before
 promulgation of the regulations and still receive allowances for the
 interim period provided that opt-iri requirements  are met?

 A non-affected unit (as defined above) may reduce its SO2 emissions
 after date of enactment but prior to promulgation of the opt-in and
. permitting regulations.1 If, subsequently, this unit applies for opt-in
 and meets the requirements set forth in the regulations, it will
 receive allowances based on the formulas in Sections 410 (b) and (c).
 If 1985 data is not available, some pre-date of enactment data should
 be used in  order to ensure full credit to the unit. If the unit has
 reduced emissions in order to create saleable allowances under the
 opt-in provisions, will it receive allowances for the operating period
 between date of enactment and official opt-in? This seems fair given
 that the benefit is also realized during this period.

 Will units opting in under Section 410 be subject to  the NOX reduction
 requirements in Section 407?

 Section 407, through omission, excludes units opting in under Section
 410 from regulation as affected units with respect to NOX reduction.
 This seems logical since it is  unlikely that a unit would opt-in if it is
 subjected to. the cost associated with both NOX and SQz reduction costs
 While it may seem unfair to give opt-in units the benefit of

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allowance issuance without the downside of NOX reduction, the
legislature has intentionally offset this through the provisions in    .
Section 410 (0- This section prohibits opt-in units from banking or
transferring allowances produced as a result of-reduced utilization or
shutdown, a limitation which is not placed on other affected units.  This
ensures fair treatment under the Amendments and full environmental
benefit.                     ••  .    , «  •                    ,,

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       X FUTtmES MARKET IN SOZ EMISSION ALLOWANCE CONTRACTS
        Can it facilitate the achievement of market based *
              cost reductions in pollution control?
      By Philip'J. .Senechal         ,      January 4, .1991
INTRODUCTION!      "  '.  '                                      * ' •

     How that we have all  agreed  that we are not,going to .freeze
in our tracks in front  of  this innovative act, let's reestablish
some basic points.                                 '•',..'

     The  intent of TITLE IV of  the  Act  is to .reduce  Acid
Deposition, encourage energy conservation, and the use of renewable
and clean alternative'technologies  among, other things.  However,
coupled  with that  intent, a market  based .pollution allowance
trading-program was designed to serve a number of purposes, not the
least of; which is to provide .incentives to reduce emissions.  The
arguments .in the balance of this paper do not .ignore .or  address the
fact -that the primary purpose of  the Act is to reduce pollution.
All issues here are secondary  to the environmental  goals'.  .  .

     The  market  based  system  was provided  to reduce compliance
costs, and  provide opportunity for new units  and growth,  while
adhering  to  the  environmental goals of the  act.   If the program
works as  intended,  reducing emissions'will not be as economically
painful to those targeted as pollution reduction programs have been
in 'the  past.    The  implications  are significant.'   If it  is
successful,,  it  can be  a model .for potential  solutions  to other.
environmental .problems.  including the global warming issue that we
are now facing.   The only.way  it can wprk is if those utilities who
can comply at relatively low cost, over comply and sell allowances
earned to those who can not.      ,        :   •
     The best chance for this  program to be successful is to have
an open,  active and liquid market.-  .
                                        1 «*   "        - '   •«"

DEVELOPING THE MARKET;  .              - ?

   ..  Because of the .conservative  nature of the utilities and the
consumer  issues that "state public utility commissioners must deal
with,: there is a legitimate concern  that the-market will not start.
Some utilities will argue  that.:if they take  action  to  either over
comply, ,or under comply, and  sell .or buy .allowances respectively,
their actions could be  deemed imprudent.  The other side of that
argument'might be — in  the presence of .an active and liquid market
— that  public .utility commissioners  might deem a utility acted
imprudently  if  it did  not take  advantage  of .relatively obvious
market  opportunities.    These  issues .make  utility  compliance
planning  very difficult at this point. . specific environmental
deadlines/have to  be  met.    Some  utilities are  already on the

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critical path for planning, designing and building emission control
equipment.   Yet it is  not  clear, in terms  of total compliance,
whether least  cost means doing the minimum  to meet the mandated
requirements, or over complying, and selling allowances to generate
revenues.  The utilities and the public utility commissioners would
greatly  benefit from  a clear  vision  of  the  real marketplace.
Utilities would  have a  better  idea of what least cost really is;
and public utility commissioners would have better  information on
which  to  determine prudent or  imprudent behavior.   With market
information readily available, all affected parties can take more
comfort in their decisions/ and feel less anxious about  ex post
facto criticism.
AUCTIONS;

     The drafters of the Act,  concerned about market failure, have
partially addressed these issues by requiring fixed price sales and
different types of  auctions of allowances obtained through a tap
of  2.8%  of  the  total  annual  allowance  supply.   The  sales and
subsequent auctions are to not only  insure a supply of necessary
allowances  for new  units and I.P.P. 's,  but  also to stimulate
trading activity, by  providing demand and value information.  At
the  December 12  ARAC subcommittee meeting there was  significant
debate  about  the  feasibility  of  published  volume   and  price
information.  The issues were  not settled.  However, there should
be no debate.  Without full disclosure of the auction sales volume
and price information no signal will have been sent to the market
and the auction will have failed to serve  its purpose.

     To a  certain extent, an auction that is well  planned and
publicized may indeed help to start  the  market.   It will provide
a source of  allowances  for those I.P.P. 's and  others  who need to
buy them.  However,  it  will not necessarily provide clear enough
information about what the true value of an allowance is.  If a new
source or  I.P.P.  can  not negotiate  a sale with  a legitimately
cautious utility,  and has no other recourse but to pay $1,500. for
an allowance in a  fixed price  auction,  the benefits derived by the
parties in the transaction are not likely  to be  balanced.   At a
minimum it provides  an available source for those who must purchase
allowances to operate or continue to operate*

     If,  however,  the market develops such that it becomes liquid
and active, the auctions may not be successful (relative to other
auctions) , or necessary.  If allowances are being actively traded
at prices lower than  $l,500/ton,  it  is unlikely that  anyone will
choose to buy them at an EPA  auction for $1,500.   Prudent buyers
would go to the marketplace to get the best deal.  So who loses?

     Nobody  loses in this case.   In  an ideal marketplace, buyers
will agree to buy at prices below their marginal cost of compliance
and; sellers  will sell  at prices above  their  marginal  cost  of

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compliance/.  If. other  risk factors are -considered,  the distance;
from marginal  cost will be. a little greater.-  Those transactions
will provide the optimum benefit to all,parties  involved.  Benefits
will be distributed wore evenly and therefore more desirably than
they .would  in  a fixed price auction with no other recourse.

   ; .The  spot sales  and  private vauctions ' which  are. to  be.
administered by the  EPA,f provide•, a: better representation of the
real value  of  allowances.  It 1 was" debated  whether, these auctions
should be private  or public. < Also, at  issue  is how sellers and
bidders,should be matched, rRather than address the specific issue
of auction .mechanics/ the purpose of this paper  is to-advocate free
.and -open markets. •';,..; it is  enough to say at, .this point  that- any
auction  designTthat .manipulates  the outcome is not  likely to be.
balanced  and .if~ it  is not,  we are  not providing the optimum result
to all  interested parties,:individually  or. collectively.   If the
market  develops  .on  its  own/,  these  issues are  probably  moot'.
Sellers  and.buyers  without an  unbalanced advantagerwill avoid a
manipulated .auction';   If  real  values  are ^higher  than $1,500.,
sellers will only grudgingly turn  over 2.8% of  their allowances as
mandated  for  the   fixed .price, sale.  ; If  values  are lower than
$1,500.,  the EPA  may not have any bidders and' will eventually get
out  of the auction business.   If the EPA facilitates  the rapid
development of an open public market,.', many of  'these problems can
be avoided.    ,   . -.-.  ., .  .' .•...  .  .   '"• V •  '•  -  .!•.'. .;.-"
 DEVELOPMENT.OP A FUTURES MARKET!          -    .     •

      The'development  of: a-futures  market concurrently  with the
 developments of.,a cash market could accomplish this': task..  .According
 to Sandor  ("Some Preliminary  Thoughts on  the Feasibility  of a
 Pollution "Allowance    Futures  .'Market1',.   Attachment   A),,  the
 simultaneous" development of futures,and cash markets is possible.-
 An active  futures  market can  provide many'benefits  to everyone
 including the EPA.            .,  -   ;,'-..-- »   - ;.• •    ....

    *             '4,         *           ,-••            <..,.
 ADMINrSTRATIVE iBENEFITSi             :   '-.

      One of  the tasks  facing the  EPA is the  establishment of a
 dependable tracking system for the allowances that  they  issue.   It
 is important to know when one-is issued, .when it .is sold,-who now
 owns it,  and finally,  when it is  delivered.1   Philip  O'Connor,
 chairman of the  subcommittee on allowance.trading, and others, have
 suggested that  each allowance ,be given.a  serial  identification
           For this and later discussions,  the word delivered means
           that a utility consumes the allowance .by emitting one ton
           of so,..  .  .'    ..-••,.-:•'   '•/  ..,_';•_.
                •» .            1-   '«.. ^

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number  (S.I.N.) not only for this purpose,  but'also to provide the
mechanics for the establishment of a database for future research;
This is a good starting point but a wider list  of  specifications
may  ultimately  have -to be  added.   The  establishment  of  SO,
allowance futures  contracts could provide the  EPA with a simple
mechanism for dealing with this task.

     Future contract  transactions,  whether they be agricultural,
options, or financial  instruments,  are conducted by the clearing
house for that particular exchange.   Each time a trade  occurs, the
clearing house acts  as an  intermediary and takes  the opposite
position on  all contracts.   The exchange publishes  all prices,
volumes, and open1 interest.   This can be of significant value to
the EPA and may provide  the basis for an efficient tracking system.
Furthermore,  the  futures  market  -in   and  of   itself  provides
information about the  physical  market,  because futures markets
become  cash markets  at delivery time.   The  exchange  can in fact
operate a physical market  as well  as a futures market.   it is
possible that  they could be persuaded to do so  for SO, allowance
transactions.


3ENEFITS TO CONSUMERS.  SHAREHOLDERS AND UTTMTTESi

     Assuming  that the  closer  the  selling price approaches the
marginal, or expected marginal cost in a risk-free market, the more
equitable  the  outcome  will  be for all  direct  and  indirect
beneficiaries of the transaction.   It is possible that a futures
contract for S02 emission .allowances can facilitate this process.
The problem remains that the utilities still know too little about
the  potential   success  of the  cash  market  to  comfortably  risk
investment in overcompliance,  in anticipation of  of f sett ing revenue
streams.  Another probability is that if there were only 2 groups
of utilities and one had a marginal compliance costs of $500. and
t*ieJ^£n*r had a marginal compliance costs of $1,500. per ton, and
bottf Vere to continue to exist, it is likely that the  later would
buy allowances from the  former and there would be economic benefits
realized by both.   In fact, without a clear view  of the  market, the
utilities are concerned that their decisions and actions would not
pass a prudency review.   However,  in the  presence of an active and
liquid futures market,  this utility fear can be minimized.

     The presence of  the futures  market can  give  the  utility
current information so  that they can hedge  their positions, and
thereby transfer the risk of holding allowances,  deliverable in the
future, to speculators who are professional risk takers. Those who
take long positions risk a  reduction in  value.   That risk can be
offset  or  reduced by  taking opposing positions in  the futures
market.  It  is possible that the speculators  can  provide early
liquidity to the  utilities which can not only  minimize risk but
also  offset  the  carrying  cost of the  compliance  equipment.

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Sandox*, Teweles and Jones  imply that this marriage of speculators
and hedgers . is one of the necessary ingredients of a successful.
contract.  > Very, active trading could help to establish a realistic
value for allowances.  Working says  that hedgers are motivated to
do so by the, following:                        .'.''.
            '•••"•'"'.    •'     •   .       •    '     *
          l. -:  It facilitates buying and selling decisions.
          2.   It gives greater freedom for business action.
          3.   It gives a 1 reliable;basis for storage of commodity
               surpluses.      ••' ' •''-•.•         «                 •
          4.   Hedging reduces business risks/

     The  ultimate  benefits   to >: utilities,   shareholders,  and.
consumers  in  an  allowances futures  market"'- would  be  similar,.
Although it is not a primary purpose 'of the futures market,  it does
present the best  opportunity to sell a particular allowance at the
best price, and  therefore make the  market more  efficient.  This
best view of the market will facilitate decision making.

     The continuing concern of utility executives is that they will
not derive  any real  benefits  for their  companies  and consumers
through this mechanism.^ They would  have been  happier with simple
cost sharing.   However, in many conversations  that I have had with
utility executives, who  would  be responsible  for the purchase or
disposal of allowances,  I observed  several.things.   One  is that
almost universally these  executives are skeptical about the  success
of  the market.     They   are.  also   concerned  about  multi-state
operations and .conflicting regulations.  Generally, however, they
feel that  if  the market  develops well,  they  would  be  likely to
participate as actively  as they  can.  In fact,  allowances would
become another product to be manufactured, and purchased or sold.
Contracting and trading strictly among utilities  could be slow and
cumbersome with  some -.transactions taking months  if  not years to
          Richard .L.. Sandor,  "Innovation By An Exchange: A case
          Study  of   the   Development  of  the  Plywood  Futures
          Contract." Journal pf Law and Economics. April 1973, page
          '126.. '•'•      '-    •   '•     ..'..-:
          Teweles & Jones,, The Futures game. Who Wins. Who  Loses.
          Mix, 2nd Edition, 1987, pages 41 - 53.
          Working,   "Hedging  Reconsidered/11   Journal  of   Farm
          Economics. 35, No. 4, November  1953,  pages  544 -  561.
          Teweles & Jones, The Futures Game,. Who Wins. Who Loses.
             ., 2nd. Edit ion, 1987, page 35.

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                                                                 oo
consummate.   This has already been  demonstrated in transactions
that have  taken place under the California  program, for airborne
pollutants.       .                                          ,

     Futures trading can provide an alternative.  Futures trading
is  likely  to be  much  more active than  cash markets.   In fact,
futures trading volume can be 20 or more times higher than actual
physical  transactions  before  delivery  finally   takes  place.*
Although futures prices are not necessarily the same as actual cash
prices, they  tend to move in parallel.  As  the time of delivery
approaches, the futures price tends to converge with the real cash
price.  This activity will provide  those who  need to buy and sell,
the best view of  what  allowances are worth at any given point in
time.  Economists and regulators refer to -this, as price discovery.
It has  been reported that some contracts are successful because
speculators who  are  acting as market makers  on  the floor of the
exchange, will buy and sell  at any reasonable price initially to
help develop a liquid market.7

     If all  the above is  true, is it realistic to think that a
futures market could develop? It is beyond the scope of this paper
to  try  to  provide  a  detailed  accounting   of the  ingredients
necessary for the establishment of a viable futures market for SO,
allowances.   in  general, however,  it appears  that the proper
conditions  do exist.   sandor describes this in more  detail in
Attachment A.  But as the process develops, much more analyses will
have to be done.
CONCUJSIQN;                                           .

     Consumers, utilities and  their shareholders will benefit if
the  market based  pollution allowance program  develops  to  the
fullest extent possible.  The  market is likely to work the best,
and  the utilities  can  make  the  best decision  with  the least
criticism,  if  information  about  demand  and  value is  readily
available.  A market independent of manipulation  can best serve
this purpose.   A futures market in S02 allowances can help develop
and demonstrate the true value  of allowances,   it can also provide
the  mechanics for  delivering  that  information  to those  in  the
market while relieving the EPA  of an administrative burden.  It is
possible that the utilities can minimize capital carrying costs.
          Towolea & Jones, The Pictures Game . Who wins f Who Loses .
               2nd Edition, 1987, page 23.
          Richard L.  sandor,  "Innovation By An  Exchange:  A Case
          Study  of   the   Development   of  the  Plywood  Futures
          Contract,11 Journal of Law and Economics. April 1973.

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They can minimize risk of price and supply changes by hedging their
positions and transferring the risks to speculators.  The futures
market Which is likely to be much more active than the cash market
provides utilities the opportunity to both buy and sell when prices
are most favorable to them.
  '-.».'•                __     .     p         .
     Generally  consumers,  shareholders  and the utilities  will
benefit from lower total compliance costs.  Not  forgetting that the
intent of the Act is to  reduce pollution,  an active market makes*
compliance more palatable economically.   With its success, future
environmental problems can be addressed  with  a higher  level of
confidence and lower level of confrontation.

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  - L- •- r v o i-1 •-
G.L. (J«rry) Gunter
  Commissioner
                                      State of Florida
                          Public l&etfnce Commission
                                        January 16,1991
                                                              '• FLETCHER BUILDING
                                                               101 EAST GAINES STREET
                                                               TALLAHASSEE 32301-8153
                                                               (904) 488-5573
         TO:
         FROM:
            Members of the Acid Rain Advisory Committee
            Subcommittee on Allowance Trading,and
            Commissioner G.' L (Jerry) <
           'Florida Public Service Commission  \\  *^>

SUBJECT:   Issues Associated with Implementation of Title IV of the Clean Air Act
            Amendments of 1990
                    What follows is a brief discussion and identification of issues associated
         with implementation of Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Clearly, this
         discussion is not exhaustive-nor is it meant to be.  Rather, the discussion attempts to
         identify some of the issues specific to Florida,.as well as some issues not yet fully-

         discussed in subcommittee..                   .            .

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"L C'UBLIC  '--ERUKE COHM '^04-4*7-0509'  Jan -17.91  11:2':>  No .014 F.03--11
                                         OUTLINE
               ^llSisloSiA^
         A major issue for the State of .Florida will be the mechanism chosen for allocation
         of growth allowances above the 40,000 ton limit imposed by the CAAA. Evidence
         clearly indicates that a difference of more than 40,000 tons would be created if all
         utilities in Florida chose the three most advantageous years between 1980 and
         1989 for their unit baselines.  The alternatives currently are:

         -  the method currently being used by E1A/EPA (basically, a ratio of utility growth
            allowances to total slate growth allowances  without regard for the  40,000 ton
            limit), or
         -  an alternative method, favored by some Florida utilities, utilizing a ratio of total
            utility allowances to total state allowances, including baste, bonus, and growth
            allowances (claims are that this is the "intended" method)

         How should an allowance tracking system be designed?

         -  what are the theoretical requirements for efficient markets?
         •  how should allowance pools be treated?

            *  for example, will pools be allowed to "balance" for all participating units, or are
               year-end requirements unit specific?
                                                                        /
         How much information will be required to ensure a fluid and working allowance
         trading market?           .

         •  should EPA require "full disclosure?"
         •  merely amounts, but not dollars or names?
         -  amounts and dollars?

         Will separate information requirements be necessary for private trades versus the
         EPA-run auctions?

         Should the EPA auction be followed by the "private" auction utilizing the same pool
         of bidders? or,

         -  should the private auction be a separate  bidding?
         •  should the private auction have the same structure?

          How should EPA structure the annual auctions required in the CAAA? Are there

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  statutory limitations on available choices?

  •   discriminating price auction
  -   uniform price auction
  •   second-price auction/
                    • -'             "       " *
  Will EPA run the auctions or appoint an agent?

1  How often will accurate allowance balances be available?
                                                .*!*•"

  -'  will trades be recorded in a timely manner?
  -   will potential traders know the availability of allowances?

  How will "designated representatives" be designated?

 •  what will be done, re: holding companies?        •
     • will Gulf or Southern Company Services be the owner/operator of "Gulf
  .    Power" units?
    * how will FERC interact with state commissions with respect to interstate
      trading of allowances?
    * who, if anyone, decidcs'prudence?               .


 How will requirements of other sections interact with the acid rain title?

    for example, will air toxics requirements preempt steps taken to meet acid rain
    requirements down the road?


 Will it be possible for persons participating in the EPA sales of allowances to satisfy
 the 50 percent payment requirement in ways other than certified check or cash?

 •  e.g., letter of credit
             ' * *
 How will losing bidders receive refunds?             ...      .       .
                                                   • * - •' '**
 Will a "true-up" period be allowed atyear end? ' .  _  '_ t-\
                                  '•'.r • . .;•  '.' ''•'•'"':
 •   how Jong will the period be?


 Will it be possible for utility owners/operators to modify their required March/June
 1991 election concerning methodology for  allocations of Phase 1 and Phase II
 allowances if circumstances or data change?          .              ,

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                                                                                    ID
                                                                                     *
                                    DISCUSSION
       Growth State Provision.  {Section 405(i)]  In addition to allowances allocated
pursuant to other subsections of section 405, and section 403(a)(I), beginning January 1,
2000, units subject to emissions  limitations under section 405(i) [those located in "growth
states"] shall receive additional Phase II allowances pursuant to a formula contained in" '
section 40S(i).1
       The formula essentially allows the owner/operator of each subject unit to choose
the "most favorable" three consecutive years between 1980 and 1989 for baseline
calculations. However, there is  a 40,000 ton cap on the number of additional allowances
to be allocated pursuant to section 405(i). Estimates are that Florida utilities would
receive approximately 126,000 tons in aggregate pursuant to this formula if no tonnage
cap was imposed. Thus, the number of allowances allocated to the individual utility units
must be "pro rated"-therein lies the debate.
       Unfortunately, no mechanism for distributing the 40,000 tons pro rata is explicitly
included in the language of the  final legislation-thereby allowing various interpretations.
Generally speaking, the parties  to the debate seem to favor one of two mechanisms.
Method #1 entails development of a ratio of total utility to state allowances by which
the 40,000 tons will be weighted.  In this method, all allowances (basic, bonus, and
calculated growth) are used in the calculation. On the other hand, method #2 calculates
the ratio using only calculated growth allowances without regard to the 40,000 ton
           stale* are defined as those that (a) experienced a growth in population in excess of 25 percent
between 1980 and 1988, and (b) that had an installed electrical generating capacity of wore than 30,000,000 lew
fa 198&YU, Florida.

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                                                                                       v/
"'•'•*/•'••'                 '       •                     '•         •     •        5
 limitation.2 At the present time, advance allowance calculations by the EPA/EIA utilize
 "   h    '  .   *'"-..        •                           *      -
; method #2, whereas the supporters of meihod.#l claim that method #1 reflects

 legislative intent.            .-            .
 .'•'*•      '  ''   -      '       ' .  - '  •      '         '  "    '   ; .
 ,,     Although bolh interpretations-may be supportable, method #1 most closely tracks

 the language in the final legislation.3 However, if the provision is meant to offset

 growth, or expected growth within Florida, method #2 is probably more appropriate

 since it would allocate a larger percentage of the 40,000 tons to Florida Power and

 Ught-the largest and fastest growing utility in FJorida-than would  method #1.
                          '            .             '       . «*       •-


       Allowance Tracking System.  The development of a working and efficient

 allowance trading market critically depends on the implementation of. a well-designed

 allowance tracking system,  lliercforc, guidance might be sought from the economics
 ." v •           •               .                 •                             ,       •
 literature describing requirements for efficient markets (Pareto optimality).

   -    In general, an allocation is Pareto optimal if and only if no person can be made

 better off.without making another worse.off.4  The principle to be established is this: the

 allocation of resources In an economy is efficient in exchange if and onfy if the marginal rate
  ' • *.              .••.-"•:•'.••.«*'  v*    • •-         •  '..               •'  •••
    *C«1.1 - (Utility's Bask Allowances + Bonus Allowances 4 Calculated Growth Allowances] / [Total State
 Baste Allowances + Bonus Allowances t CufcuUlcd Growth Allowances] x 40,000 - Share
    ,*''*,'    '        "     '.'    -..*''.'     ^     *    '      '   '    "
 Cal. 2 • fUlflil/s Calculated Growth Allowances] / (Total Slate Calculated Growth ARowanccs].z 40,000 =
 Share  •   _   -,              .  -  „ •      .       . •    ''    _     .  '    .  -          '   '


 .   *A» well as  tbo definition of "pro rata"  as coataioed  in HH. 3030 as paucd by the U^. House of
 Representaliws* Commillcc on Energy and Commerce. [See Report 101-490, Part I, p. 651.]       .

    4. "'    '*'*  *                   '      '          ' "          '     •     '
    *Morc spedifkally, Pareto-optlnuIUy rciquires: (1) c/ficicncy in exchange, (2) efficiency in production, and
 (3) eflkieney of  the product mix.  Some economists, notably Abba Leriter, add a fourth criteria, that of
 distributional efficiency/            '   •                          .  *

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                                                                                  yz_
                                                                                   6
                                                                               <
 of substitution (MRS-  ) of one good for another is the same for each person consuming


 both of. the goods."rS


       In practice, an individual's MRS^ involves a subjective evaluation of satisfaction
                       •

 (utility in economics jargon).  Any time that two consumers of each good have different


 MRS values, there is "room for a deal." Overall  efficiency requires that the MRS be


 equal between any two consumers, and between  any two goods in the economy.  Clearly,


 we are not likely to  meet this rcquirenient-for reasons too numerous to discuss here.


 However, in the market for allowances, one might hope to achieve an equalization of the


 MRS between two broad categories of "goods":  emissions allowances (x), and control of


 emissions (y).  The allocation of allowances would then be efficient only if the MRS^ of


 allowances (x) and of control (y) is equal across utilities.6

                                  ,                   *                  .    +     *s
    'As noted in Friedman (1984), "if a policy results in  at least one consumer of a good


 being charged a price different from the price charged other consumers of the good, the


 policy will generally be inefficient. * 7 In application, assuming economic agents have


'well-behaved  preferences and production technologies, any Pareto-optimal allocation of


 resources can be achieved as a general competitive equiltbriunv-as long as costless


 transfers of initial endowments are allowed.8 The requirement that transfers of initial


 endowments be costless is especially important for our purposes.  A well-designed
    5Sec Lee S. Friedman, Miprneeonomic Policy Analysis McGraw Hill, New York, 1984:28.


    T"hi» analysis b sligbtly more complicated than portrayed here since control may involve production, as
 might U«c creation of cntiasioiu allowances.  •                    '                -"     •


    7Scc Friedman (1984), p. 30.                                       '


    •ibkL, p. 385.

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allowance tracking system can help easure that this requirement is met.  Lack of

.-'•'•'    '   •'  ' ;1?'   '>-.•';"••''
information regarding supplies of allowances on the part of potential buyers will entail '


expenditures, possibly, substantial, to acquire sufficient information on which to base

compliance decisions and. allowance trades. Therefore, as much information as practical
                         ••.'-..'-.                  '      • •"•"-,,

regarding allowance allocations and trades should be gathered and made public by the


EPA, as soon as possible.               .                                    >[':-


       A separate issue associated with the allowance tracking system is whether a  ./'


"true-up" period will be allowed.following each year's allowance auditing. That is, at the

  ..-  ••   .          V .'•-'"'  -  -  •-    '/•'•    .     '-.''" '  '    .•'.   .v'••'",'
end of each calendar year, should the owner/operator of each utility unit be allowed to
         •::  \,  •  •  *", / •"  .._  ...  ',   .'';•"  '•• . ••'.•-•'"    • •  •.      •'•' / •  '"

augment his  allowance balance during, say.. .a three-month true-up period?  Since

  '    '<-    .*'•.•-"•••      •  •-.  •
allowances are issued annually, there should be no logical reason to forbid use of a given

year's allowances to offset emissions during that year, even if the allowances were
         •  ._'.'"''          ,                 *J.

acquired following the year-end.                              '      . ,
                '-."•»..'  •'              • >     •    •   "    • •, ^ >'-•.•:
              '  '   *>,     '..•'•  • •   '.-•'-              •->.'•
       Still another issue surrounds the availability of accurate emissions allowance

      .-••,     -  -X   -"'   " :•?:> '';'.  '.": •'•••",* -:":^'  '."•   "  ••'   .'*•     "•-.
balances. How often will the balances be updated and, made available to potential
                  ••••i%. '"•'/   ->.'.-:- <  *A'•  •   -'"'_  '.       .  ••'-.""   .'  '•
allowance traders?: An accurate  and readily available array of account balances would
                                '" '. •      » •        .     ** :  J  • '    " • •
.,.-,_,. •'-•••=>•.•»' '-'.-••••'.•'. ••'"-.'• ''  *•'   •'•'•'-  '"    ' '/''  7-"-  ".'.'•"
help ensure a fluid and active.market for allowance trades.  ".
        ......  -  ••'•.- •..  ••/•  :- '•'.'  '••••  "••-''  •'•  • '•':  *  '•'    :\ •••••"••-/; • •;"" -^i-
       A further problem may arise with respect to accuracy of/account balances:  the.
           •   ... •     .-.-"',.._.,'• ;,i^';,.....•'"".'  '-.^ .   ;•'"'«•'•   •     '•'  '  ''-'"'
issue is, when do trades have to be reported to the EPA for subsequent recordation?


Although no specific lime frame  is specified within the legislation, it would seem prudent


for the EPA to specify "reasonable" time frames'in its. regulations, perhaps .within 30


days, 60 days, etc.

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                          * "    •          •        '......      •       8
       EPA Auctions. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 require that the EPA

hold annual allowance auctions beginning in 1993, for both "spot" and "advance"

allowances. These auctions are expected to operate as both a last resort for those

needing allowances, as well as a "pump priming" mechanism. A number of issues arise

with respect to these auctions. First, does the Act allow a choice of bidding

mechanisms?  And, if so, how should the auction be designed? Second, how much

information must be released following completion of the auction-must names of
   i                  ^
winning bidders be announced?  Third, will the  EPA run the auction or appoint an

agent?  Fourth, should the -EPA auction be immediately followed by the "private" auction

of allowances submitted for EPA disbursement? Fifth, should this private auction have

the same structure as the EPA's auction? Can it?  Sixth, how will losing bidders receive
            *        **»••,         '        '      .
deposit refunds?

      Another interesting question arises with respect to eligible bidders. The

legislation does not appear to preclude "hoarding" on the part of speculators-perhaps
                                                        \'
resulting in the possibility of groups (like the Nature Conservancy) purchasing allowances

with withholding being the express intent of the purchase-thereby effectively reducing
                           •             •           i  ' '•
the operating cap. More importantly, what  provisions need.to be made to guarantee

against financial failure of allowance  brokers or speculators?


      Permit*. A number of issues also arise with respect to implementation of the

permit provisions.* For example, will  utilities be allowed to modify selections of

allowance allocation methodologies after such choices in early 1991?.  What if the data

-------
 underlying these choices are found to be faulty in retrospect?

       Closely related to this problem is the question of the detail to be required in

 compliance plans and permit applications (both Phase I EPA permits and Phase II state

 permits).  Although EPA position papers imply little data will be required of affected

 units planning "normal" compliance, what assurance is there that this "low-level" data

 requirement will be carried forward throughout the rulemaking process? Only if such is

 the case will compliance flexibility be maintained-hclping to ensure that least-cost

 compliance remains feasible.
       Other Issues.  Various other issues also exist.  Some of these will likely have


* simple solutions, while others.may require more study.  For example, the legislation


 requires that persons desiring to purchase allowances under the EPA sales provisions pay


 50 percent of the amount owed within 6 months of approval of the request to purchase.
          *'   -  *•             '
          *••    >                  *
 T$teurrenl presumption appears to be that such a requirement could only be satisfied.


 by actual transfer of funds. However, there are numerous financial instruments available


 that might equally satisfy the deposit requirement, while allowing the purchaser to
            *'*      •*.                 '            •

 continue earning interest on his funds unti!  the time of actual asset transfer.


       Related issues arise with respect to EPA auction bids. For example, how will


 bidders "authenticate" their bids? Will deposits be required? And, if deposits are


 required, bow will losing bidders receive refunds?


       Clearly, a mechanism to "weed out" sham bids would be useful.  However,


 substantial sums of money will be involved, and lost revenue on funds tied up in the

-------
                                                                            '    <4
 EPA process could also be substantial. As in the sales discussion above, a financial
 instrument that allows continued earnings accrual while ensuring the seriousness of the
 bid would be preferable to requirements that funds actually be submitted with bids.
       As noted previously, the intent of this discussion has not been to identify, nor to
 resolve the multitude of issues facing ARAC and EPA.  Rather, the intent has been to
 identify and discuss a few of the major issues facing us in our attempt to fashion
 regulations implementing Titles IV and V of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.
The regulations ultimately put in place must not only be workable, they must also
provide the structure to achieve the letter as well as the spirit of the Act.

-------
 ,"   t •''• ^,-1 -,  ''         Summary, of Notes
         12-14-90 Meeting on Allowance Trading & Auctions


Elections of Phase  1  &  2 Allowances    .    •  •

A number of  participants, had  questions regarding whether
elections are'binding or permanent.   In particular,  participants
wanted to know  if an  election could  be altered if the data upon
which it was based  was  changed by  EPA.

There was onuch  discussion about the  availability of  information
on which to  base, elections  and the data that EPA would have
available'to calculate  allowances.

Participants indicated  that the definition of the capacity factor
in terms of  "potential" capacity was nebulous.   Commentors urged
EPA to identify areas of ambiguity in. making elections and to
indicate its position.  - EPA responded by. saying it was
.considering  going*!.through notice and comment on a range of small
definitional issue.                            ,
           ; •?•,"'*.,     •    - •            '       '•          *     *
One commentDr suggested that  utilities should not respond on
elections and let EPA determine which election would give-them   •.,
the most allowances.  It. was  pointed out that this decision would
be non-appealable and placeVthe utility "at peril."            .«=

A Florida utility questioned  what  EPA was doing to develop non-
1985 data.,   EPA responded that it.is using EIA to develop the
information  and the data will be available by March  or April. -
          •  "                                    .  v  -  -• -  ••• .'.'.•
   %:                       -v                  '?'
Direct Sales and IPPs  -. •   •

EPA deferred issues regarding the  Direct Sales Program to a
subsequent meeting.   In response to  a question regarding why, EPA
listed three reasons:  (1) the IPP  written guarantee  language is
confusing and EPA needs to  clarify it,  (2)  the sales regulations
are not  part of the. statutory deadline for March,.and (3)  the
auction  has  a fast  approaching deadline.   The issues that will
have to  be dealt with on Direct Sales include:  first-come, first-
served,  and  who should  conduct the sales.   A commentor raised the
issue of "need"  regarding "first-come,  first-served'1 and    -
suggested that  utilities should have preference over: brokers.


Sales and Auctions

EPA began the discussion by stating  the reasons the  auction and
direct sales.program  were included in the CAA:  to deal with.
potential market failure; to  deal  with growth by utilities; and
to facilitate the private market for allowances.        • • - •

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A long discussion ensued regarding whether the CAA mandates a    '
discriminating price auction or whether it allows for a uniform
price auction.  Among the points made were the following.

   - The Congressional Staffs' intent was to create a
     discriminating price auction based on the House Bill.
     However, the language of the CAA is ambiguous and it
     may be possible to argue that it is compatible with a
     uniform price auction.

   - Most people are familiar with discriminating (non-
     uniform) price auctions.  On the other hand, people
     often, are confused by uniform price auctions.

   - A commentor suggested that a discriminating auction
     would best serve the "pump-priming1' function of the
     auction.  Another suggested that a uniform price
     auction would eliminate the need for strategic bidding.  "
     Another commentor indicated that there are different
     views of how each type of auction might perform in
     various circumstances and that it is not clear that one
     type of auction necessarily should be favored over
     another for auctioning allowances.

  ' - It was suggested that EPA should begin with a
     discriminating auction, but that it should retain the
     flexibility to experiment with or to impose a uniform
     price auction if problems arise with the discriminating
     auction.  It was argued that utilities readily could
    > "learn how to work with each system.  EPA responded that
     it would be at least 3 or 4 years before it would have
     the time to review the performance of the
     discriminating auction and, by then, the two types of
     auctions probably would be indistinguishable.

   - The discussion ended with apparent agreement that EPA
     should begin with a discriminating auction, as this
     type of auction is more consistent with the language of
     the Act, it is more easily understandable, and people
     have more familiarity with it.

EPA indicated that it planned to hold the spot and advance
auction on the same day and use the same bid form for each with
bidders specifying on the bid form which auction'they were
participating in.  In response to a question, EPA stated that the
language of the Act requires one auction per year.  The timing of
the auction will be put "on hold" because this issue is related
to the Direct Sales provision.

One commentor indicated that it planned on entering the auction
and making multiple bids.  It was concerned that a requirement
that certified checks accompany all bids would result in

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unacceptably large amounts  of  capital  to be  outstanding and
suggested that other  financial instruments could be used to
.insure that payment was made for  allowances  won  at auction, e.g.,
letters of credit.    .     -
                                        •. ' '          •
  :- In response, a commentor  suggested that with  many
/    bidders participating  in  the auction it would be
     difficult for EPA.to check letters of credit.  One
     member suggested checking the DOE's, experience with the
     Strategic Petroleum.Resource.      '     .'• -     '.
     .' •  .< ..   .'"..    •-'  •    •.-:  •-. .'     ' ••  .,'•.,.-,*. '•- :
   -Utilities were urged to explore this -issue  in more • •  -
     detail .if it was important to them and  to' provide EPA
     with alternatives.                   ':  ,      "\   ^

There appeared to be  a consensus  that  EPA should not place  any
restrictions on. the amounts or number  of bids.

EPA indicated that it was considering  two methods, of allocating
allowances in the case of tie  bids —  a pro  rata allocation or a
lottery.  There was no discussion on the issue.
               *                                      ""
       t    •       •      •*'"•$
EPA stated that it planned  to  use an electronic  transfer system
to transfer allowances.won  at  auction  to the accounts of winning
bidders. ... This ^precipitated a  comment  that the 'allowance tracking
system should be set  up to  meet customer and market trading needs
and that it would be  unfortunate  if budget limitations
compromised the system. The commentor  asked  whether a franchise
system would be used  in which  customers would  be charged for
services rendered.  Under that approach regular  business
incentives would insure that a "state-of-the-art"  system would be
maintained.  It was suggested  that a subcommittee  be formed to
evaluate this issue.    •                       •  :, .."•'"
Private Auction   ,

Although EPA was not  ready  to discuss the design of the private
auction, there was much  discussion  on this issue.   The major
points made or questions asked in the discussion included the
following.                       .                  .

    -Is the private auction required to be an extension of
     the public auction .or  could it be held on a separate
     day?

    - EPA would have great.difficulty in conducting a private
     auction if it allowed  all sorts of allowances to be
     auctioned, particularly streams of allowances.   EPA should
     auction the same things it will in public auction.

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   - EPA, to the extent allowed by the CAA, should stay out of
     the business of conducting private auctions.  This could be
     handled better by the private market, should there be a
     demand for the service.  Although one commentor suggested
     that EPA should designate a broker to develop the private
     auction, most participants appeared to support the position
     that the private market could best handle this function.

   - The Chicago Board of Trade representative expressed
     considerable interest in creating and managing a private
     market^ for allowances..

   - IPPs indicated that they were interested in purchasing
     streams of allowances.  It was pointed out that the private
     market could arrange for trading of allowance streams if
     there were willing buyers and sellers.

The general consensus of the discussion appeared to be that EPA
should design the private auction to be consistent with its
public auction and make the private auction mechanism available
to allowance holders but, beyond this, should not actively
compete with the private sector in facilitating private trading.
It was recommended that EPA should provide the committee with a
"strawman" of the private auction design as soon as possible.


Publication of Information fromthe Auction                '   " .

EPA led off the discussion by outlining three options for
announcing the results of the auction: announcing the cutoff
price; publishing winning bids and amounts; or publishing winning
bids, amounts, and names of bidders.  The CAA requires EPA to
adopt either of the two latter options.

The ensuing discussion revealed numerous points of view regarding
the information that should be supplied from the auction.
Interspersed in the discussion were comments regarding how much
information should be made available from the allowance tracking
system.

   - If the function of the auction is "pump-priming11
     publishing names would be useful.  A utility
     representative indicated that it may want to use the
     names of winning bidders to identify potential
     allowance buyers or sellers.

   - If utilities are in negotiations at the time of the
     .auction, publishing names of winning bidder would
     compromise negotiations.  A possible method for dealing
     with this problem is to make publication of names
     voluntary.  If there is a market for secrecy, contracts

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     can be made in the private market, although it was
     .pointed out- that participants in the auction might be
     able to disguise their identify.

   -Many utility commissions have decided that,the details
     of certain purchases by utilities, e.g., coal
     purchases, should remain confidential.  However, that  .
     treatment should not be extended to a. "publicly  .. v/<
     created" commodity.  Utility regulators generally took
     the position that the bias should be to make public' the
     maximum amount of information. ' Backing away from this
     should only be done for good cause.   •

   - The representative from the Chicago Board of Trade
     stated.that they are involved in many markets that have
     both public and private components.  Information made
     available from the public components has not   .   ,  ,.
     compromised the private markets.      ._


This issue became a bit confused because some participants'
comments were directed at how much information should be provided
by EPA's tracking system regarding allowance holdings,and the
details of purchases and sales .           .   '           -     •
      .-••-••.    .  '-..•'-.   •   -         -    "'  r  '<*.*''.' "•  '      "-
   - Some commentorSt suggested that EPA's tracking system
     provide for full disclosure of all allowance holdings
     .and all 'transactions.  Utility commission ..      .   ;•*•_ f-
     representatives indicated they would find useful    :'.'
     information regarding, allowance holding, of non- , . \
     regulated units and units outside their, jurisdiction.
     It would be less costly for EPA to provide this "
     information than for utilities to develop it. .
     . -'       •                 .                    *"•.,.»
     One commentor suggested that, in deciding how. much
     information to release, EPA should take account of the.
    = needs of state utility commissions for'information,  ,/.
     given that they can easily-obtain such data from the
     utilities under their jurisdiction.

The discussion turned to EPA's approach to designing an allowance
tracking system.  The following points were made.       .

   - The investment community apparently-needs documentation
     regarding allowances, such as a dated certificate.  > .
                                    .»'  •   .     *   '  • '• ••«*"*".*
   - Utility auditors need a way of verifying allowance holdings.

   - Each allowance should have a unique number identifying.
     its origin.       «  :              ".          •         ;.

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   - EPA should commit.itself to ensuring that .transactions clear
     within a-certain time period;

   - The participants urged EPA to develop a "strawman" of the
     tracking system to focus discussion.  For example,
     participants wanted to know whether EPA was planning to
     track individual allowances or whether the system would be a
   .  simple credit/debit system.                ~

Opt-in Issue    .

Industrial sources were concerned about uncertainties regarding
how to resolve this issue.

One commentor suggested that it was unfair for industrial sources
to generate excess credits from their baseline emissions, as
opposed to a 1.2 Ib/mmBTU standard.  It was pointed out that this
is what the CAA requires and that the object is to bring such
sources into the system.


Concluding Remarks

The Chairman suggested that interested parties should submit
materials to EPA and raise issues at least one week in advance of
the next meeting (although participants are free to send
materials through other channels) and urged participants to
become•educated and to develop positions on upcoming issues.  He
suggested it would be useful for EPA to: (1)  catalogue consensus
versus contentious issues; and (2) provide a legal opinion- on
some issues to'resolve arguments.

The Chairman also indicated that he will set up meetings with
people who are active in running markets similar in nature to the
envisaged allowance market.  (The Chicago Board of Trade
representative offered his assistance.)  He indicated interest in*
exploring the issue of what PUCs need in the way of information
an how allowances may be treated in an accounting sense.
Miscellaneous Closin
     Arthur Anderson indicated that they and other public
     accounting firms are beginning to think about how to
     treat allowances in an accounting sense.

     Paul Joskow suggested that it would be useful for the
     group to have some sense of EPA's position on -program
     evaluation.  EPA responded by saying it is drafting a
     program implementation strategy.

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-?-   A workshop has been scheduled by NRRI to be -held  in
     Arlington  (Jan. 30 and 31st).  Ken Rose is to provide
     some materials  (on the data base) to the group.
                   ''**•'.
     It is important-to get the regulatory role of POCs and
     state environmental agencies relative to the allowance
     system "on the table.11           ;      .

Follow - Up Activities

.—  Request for a briefing on EPA1s program evaluation efforts

—  Send out list of subcommittee.membership

—  Send out minutes of meeting

—  Send address list of Allowance System Branch

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