United States
                     Environmental Protection
                     Agency
                           Region 3
                           Philadelphia, PA 19103
                  EPA/903/F-00/002
                  June 2001
                  www.epa.gov
xvEPA
How Will  Climate Change Affect  the

Mid-Atlantic Region?^   M^t
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      Average temperture has risen 1 degree F over the last century m the Mrfr^A'tlantic
      Region as well as across the globe. Climate science is developing rapidly and many
      studies project additional warming. Although the future is uncertain and difficult to
      predict, our best science suggests the following changes are likely.

      The Mid-Atlantic Region will be somewhat warmer and
      perhaps wetter, resulting in a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and
      humans. Human activities that release heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere
      will continue to accelerate the observed warming trend. Climate change will
      compound existing stresses from population density and development. The
      region's overall economy is quite
      resilient, but impacts will be more
      severe for some economic activi-
      ties and localities.
    Average Daily High Temperature
             Two Projections for
            Temperature Rise Over
            the Next Century in the
             Mid-Atlantic Region
 1995   2015
           2035  2055
              Year
                      2075   2095
                    Coastal Lowlands
               Areas in red are currently at risk
             when tides are high and will be flooded
               more frequently as sea level rises.
   Sea-level is rising 1 - 2 inches per decade along the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
   Climate change will likely double that rate, causing sea level to rise 15-40 inches
   during this century. Sea-level rise threatens beaches, beach properties, wetlands,
   and barrier islands that help shield the mainland from the impacts of storm surges.
   Sea-level rise will affect tourism and property values, insurance and infrastructure
   repair costs, and saltwater seeping into fresh water wells.
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   ^Wilmington, NC
                                                             ^'CapeHatteras
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                                                           Area now above sea level
                                                           less than 5 feet   ^

                                                           5-11.5 feet    |

                                                           more than 11.5 feet L.]
                                                                       Tints and Richman, Climate Research, 2001
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                 Floods and droughts could be more frequent and severe.
                 More rain and snow could bolster fresh water supplies, but the
                 region's growing population and industry will use more water.
                 Runoff from heavy rain carries sediments, pesticides, fertilizers, and
                 germs into nearby waterways. Degraded water quality disturbs
                 aquatic life and leads to more stringent pollution discharge limits for
                 industry and water treatment plants and higher costs for manufactur-
                 ers, consumers, and taxpayers. Trout and other cold-water fish
                 species will become less abundant; warm-water fish will become
                 more plentiful.

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                        Climate Change Effects on Animals and Plants
                 Birds' winter ranges win change.
                                         Invasive SpeC/eSthat thrive in warmer and wetter
                                            environments could displace beneficial Mid-Atlantic
                                                       species and create pest control problems.

                 Reduction in biodiversity: Changes in the variety of organisms found
                 within the Mid-Atlantic region will affect valued functions - pollinating crops,
                 moderating and purifying water flows, and providing diverse wildlife.
ForCSfS of maple, beech and birch gradually will be replaced by oak, hickory,
that are valuable for furniture less abundant. Trees will, however, tend to grow faster 3$
efficiently. The distribution and abundance of pests, frequency of fires, and the
decomposition also will change.

Positive and negative effects will be experienced. The positive
benefits to the region are fewer and smaller than the negative impacts.  The
following table summarizes these impacts and the certainty that they will happen.,;.
 Summary of Mid-Atlantic impacts
                                     Negative impact
 Most Certain

 •  Agricultural production
 •  Coastal zones
 •  Temperature related health status
                         Positive Impact
                                          tobacco
                              salmteH™;
                                     heat stress
                               soybeans,
                               possibly
                               corn and
                               treefhiits
 Moderately Certain

 •  Forestry production
 •  Temperature related health status
                                      extreme events <
  Uncertain

  •  Biodiversity
  •  Fresh water quantity
  •  Fresh water quality
  •  Ecological functioning
  •  Vector and water-borne disease
    health status
  •  Environmental effects from agriculture
migration barriers,
 invasive species <
             \i
        more variability <*

           runoff <""
       Cryptosporidiosis  more average
  steam flow
                              > wann water
                              fisheries
Arrow length and thickness shows the relative size of potential impacts:
bigger arrows mean bigger impacts. Arrows in the lower sections of the
table have lighter shading because those impacts are less certain.

Learn more about global warming and what you can do by reading Preparing for
Climate Change, Mid-Atlantic Overview, a copy of which can be obtained by
writing to Penn State University/A ESS, 107Armsby Building, University Park, PA
16802. The Mid-Atlantic Region Study is part of the First National Assessment.
More information about global warming is also available at the following websites:
www.epa.gov/globalwarming/; www.essc.psu.edu/mara/; www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/.
Additional copies of this fact sheet may be obtained by calling the Mid-Atlantic
Integrated Assessment, EPA Region 3 at 410-305-2749.

     Printed on chlorine free, 100% recycled/recyclable paper with 100%
     post-consumer fiber using vegetable-based ink.
                                                                               Decisions NOW will affect the
                                                                               severity of impacts in the future.
                                                                               Individuals and local community,
                                                                               government, and corporate
                                                                               decision-makers can act now to
                                                                               take advantage of the benefits and
                                                                               lessen the negative impacts of
                                                                               climate change. Actions could be
                                                                               taken to minimize risks associated
                                                                               with both wet and dry extremes of
                                                                               climate. We can take simple steps
                                                                               - planting trees and using more
                                                                               energy-efficient appliances - while
                                                                               tackling more complex challenges
                                                                               - improving watershed manage-
                                                                               ment and revising policies that
                                                                               encourage coastal development.

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