United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Region 3
Philadelphia, PA 19103
EPA/903/F-00/002
June 2001
www.epa.gov
xvEPA
How Will Climate Change Affect the
Mid-Atlantic Region?^ M^t
*> 1200Pennsyfvan; '.-...
Washington f *••'""
Average temperture has risen 1 degree F over the last century m the Mrfr^A'tlantic
Region as well as across the globe. Climate science is developing rapidly and many
studies project additional warming. Although the future is uncertain and difficult to
predict, our best science suggests the following changes are likely.
The Mid-Atlantic Region will be somewhat warmer and
perhaps wetter, resulting in a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and
humans. Human activities that release heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere
will continue to accelerate the observed warming trend. Climate change will
compound existing stresses from population density and development. The
region's overall economy is quite
resilient, but impacts will be more
severe for some economic activi-
ties and localities.
Average Daily High Temperature
Two Projections for
Temperature Rise Over
the Next Century in the
Mid-Atlantic Region
1995 2015
2035 2055
Year
2075 2095
Coastal Lowlands
Areas in red are currently at risk
when tides are high and will be flooded
more frequently as sea level rises.
Sea-level is rising 1 - 2 inches per decade along the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Climate change will likely double that rate, causing sea level to rise 15-40 inches
during this century. Sea-level rise threatens beaches, beach properties, wetlands,
and barrier islands that help shield the mainland from the impacts of storm surges.
Sea-level rise will affect tourism and property values, insurance and infrastructure
repair costs, and saltwater seeping into fresh water wells.
$3?
V V '5f*/'
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^Wilmington, NC
^'CapeHatteras
^
Area now above sea level
less than 5 feet ^
5-11.5 feet |
more than 11.5 feet L.]
Tints and Richman, Climate Research, 2001
Rockvi I le^HMlair-yJand 1975"
Floods and droughts could be more frequent and severe.
More rain and snow could bolster fresh water supplies, but the
region's growing population and industry will use more water.
Runoff from heavy rain carries sediments, pesticides, fertilizers, and
germs into nearby waterways. Degraded water quality disturbs
aquatic life and leads to more stringent pollution discharge limits for
industry and water treatment plants and higher costs for manufactur-
ers, consumers, and taxpayers. Trout and other cold-water fish
species will become less abundant; warm-water fish will become
more plentiful.
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Climate Change Effects on Animals and Plants
Birds' winter ranges win change.
Invasive SpeC/eSthat thrive in warmer and wetter
environments could displace beneficial Mid-Atlantic
species and create pest control problems.
Reduction in biodiversity: Changes in the variety of organisms found
within the Mid-Atlantic region will affect valued functions - pollinating crops,
moderating and purifying water flows, and providing diverse wildlife.
ForCSfS of maple, beech and birch gradually will be replaced by oak, hickory,
that are valuable for furniture less abundant. Trees will, however, tend to grow faster 3$
efficiently. The distribution and abundance of pests, frequency of fires, and the
decomposition also will change.
Positive and negative effects will be experienced. The positive
benefits to the region are fewer and smaller than the negative impacts. The
following table summarizes these impacts and the certainty that they will happen.,;.
Summary of Mid-Atlantic impacts
Negative impact
Most Certain
• Agricultural production
• Coastal zones
• Temperature related health status
Positive Impact
tobacco
salmteH™;
heat stress
soybeans,
possibly
corn and
treefhiits
Moderately Certain
• Forestry production
• Temperature related health status
extreme events <
Uncertain
• Biodiversity
• Fresh water quantity
• Fresh water quality
• Ecological functioning
• Vector and water-borne disease
health status
• Environmental effects from agriculture
migration barriers,
invasive species <
\i
more variability <*
runoff <""
Cryptosporidiosis more average
steam flow
> wann water
fisheries
Arrow length and thickness shows the relative size of potential impacts:
bigger arrows mean bigger impacts. Arrows in the lower sections of the
table have lighter shading because those impacts are less certain.
Learn more about global warming and what you can do by reading Preparing for
Climate Change, Mid-Atlantic Overview, a copy of which can be obtained by
writing to Penn State University/A ESS, 107Armsby Building, University Park, PA
16802. The Mid-Atlantic Region Study is part of the First National Assessment.
More information about global warming is also available at the following websites:
www.epa.gov/globalwarming/; www.essc.psu.edu/mara/; www.nacc.usgcrp.gov/.
Additional copies of this fact sheet may be obtained by calling the Mid-Atlantic
Integrated Assessment, EPA Region 3 at 410-305-2749.
Printed on chlorine free, 100% recycled/recyclable paper with 100%
post-consumer fiber using vegetable-based ink.
Decisions NOW will affect the
severity of impacts in the future.
Individuals and local community,
government, and corporate
decision-makers can act now to
take advantage of the benefits and
lessen the negative impacts of
climate change. Actions could be
taken to minimize risks associated
with both wet and dry extremes of
climate. We can take simple steps
- planting trees and using more
energy-efficient appliances - while
tackling more complex challenges
- improving watershed manage-
ment and revising policies that
encourage coastal development.
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