CBP/TRS 62/91
                                  April 1991
EPA
903
CBP/
TRS
62/91
         Watershed Model Application
              to Calculate Bay Nutrient
                             Loadings

                   Final Findings and
                    Recommendations

               Appendix A Hydrology
                    Calibration Results
H^^Chesapeake
VSaS* _   Bay
         Program

-------

-------
Watershed Model Application to Calculate
              Bay Nutrient Loadings:
             Final Findings and Recommendations

          Appendix A Hydrology Calibration Results
                         Lewis C. Linker
                         Diana Y. Alegre
                    Chesapeake Bay Program Office
                     Annapolis, Maryland 21403
                      v'/EPA
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                CHESAPEAKE BAY PROGRAM OFFICE
             U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                         REGION IE
                     ANNAPOLIS, MD 21403
   Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program

                       HEADQUARTERS LIBRARY
                       ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                       WASHINGTON. D.C. 20460

-------

-------
                                 APPENDIX A
                        HYDROLOGY CALIBRATION RESULTS

                              Table .of Contents
Appendix Suntnary
A.I    East Branch Susquehanna River
A.2    West Branch Susquehanna River
A.3    Juniata River
A.4    Lower  Susquehanna River
A.5     Susquehanna River at Conowingo
A.6     Upper Potomac River
A.7     Shenandoah River
A.8    Lower Potomac River
 A.9    Patuxent River
 A. 10   Rappahannock River
 A. 11   Mattaponi River
 A.12   Pamunkey River
 A.13   James River
 A. 14   Appomattox River
 4
14
24
34
44
54
64
74
84
 94
104
114
124
134

-------

-------
                        APPENDIX  SUMMARY
     Appendix A provides the results of the Watershed Model Phase



II Hydrology  Calibration.    Presented  are plots  and statistical



tables  comparing  the simulated  and  observed flows  covering  the



period 1984-1987 for each of the  major calibration stations of the



fourteen  subbasins  of  the  Chesapeake Bay.   Specifically,  this



appendix  includes  the following plots:  a)  time  series  plots  of



simulated and observed daily  flows  for 1984-1987; b) time series



plots of residuals (simulated minus observed  daily flows); c) time



series plots of cumulative simulated and  observed flows; d) plots



of percent chance flow exceeded vs. streamflow; e) distribution of



percent  relative  errors  and actual  errors  over  the  percentile



sample population;  and e) scatter plots  of  the  regression of log



transformed  simulated flows  on  log  transformed  observed flows.



This Appendix  also contains  statistical  tables, as  follows:  a)



comparison of annual  total  observed  and  simulated flows; and,  b)



regression statistics including average daily, monthly and seasonal



R2's,  and intercept and slope statistics.



     The time series overlay plots of  simulated and observed daily



flows  show  good  agreement  between   the  model   results  and  the



monitoring data.  The  differences occur during  the  winter months



when the  model  manifests  higher  flows compared  with the observed



flows,  and  in the  spring periods  when the  simulated  values  are



lower than the observed.  These may be attributed to difficulties



in simulating  snowmelt.   In  general,  the model  anticipates  the



observed peak flows with  a  one  to  two days  phasing difference  as

-------
illustrated by the residual plots which characteristically show an



initial  overshoot followed  immediately  by  an undershoot  of  the



simulated flows during major storm events.



     The  state  of model calibration is  also  demonstrated  by  the



cumulative flow plots.  For most of the subbasins, the cumulative



plots depict a very close tracking of the  observed cumulative flows



by the cumulative  simulated flows.  Only Rappahannock and Mattaponi



show relatively poor correspondence of the simulated and observed



values  due  to  the persistent undersimulation  of flows  in  both



rivers.   The  percent chance flow exceeded plots  affirm that  the



simulated and observed values favorably compare with each other.



     The  relative error  plots  (i.e.,  where  relative  error  is



computed  as  the simulated  minus  observed values divided  by  the



observed values)  show that over 90%  of  the  daily simulated flows



are within -100% to 100% error  with  respect to the observed flows.



However,  for  most  of the  subbasins about 60-85%  of  the relative



errors fall within the  -50% to 50% range.  Virtually  all  of  the



daily simulated flow  values deviate with  the observed flows within



the range, -10,000 to +10,000 cfs.  Almost all of the actual error



plots display a  flat  curve  about 0 cfs.  The sigmoidal shape of the



relative  and actual  eror  plots  indicate  that  the   errors  are



normally distributed.



     The scatter plots of the regression  of log simulated flows on



log observed  flow  show  that generally  the model  has  no bias,  and



that the  subbasins,  Appomattox and Mattaponi, bear  the greatest



difference between the log  simulated and log observed values.   it



should be noted that  the flows  in the two rivers are controlled to

-------
a high degree by reservoir water releases.



     The regression  results  reveal  that there is,  in  general,  a



linear dependence between the log simulated and log observed flows



with the 1984-1987  R2' s  varying from 0.59 to 0.83  for  the daily



flows, and from  0.76  to  0.90  for the monthly  flows.   The average



daily and monthly R2' s for  the period  1984-1987 are 0.75 and 0.84,



respectively.   The  monthly flow R2' s are  invariably  higher  than



the daily flow R2's  due to aggregation of data.  The seasonal  flow



regressions exhibit  lower  R2's  compared  to the daily  and monthly



flow  regressions.    The  best simulations  were  obtained  for  the



summer and fall seasons due to low flows, while  the overall least



agreement  was  obtained  for  the  winter  season  as  the  model



oversimulated  the  high or  peak flows  --  that  is, the  seasonal



regression coefficients are mostly high for Seasons 3 and  4  (or the



151st to 365th day of  the  Julian year),  and low  for  Season 1 (or



the 1st to the 60th day of the year).



     The intercept and slope statistics show parallel results.  The



1984-87  monthly  flow    intercept   and  slope  coefficients  are



noticeably improved over the daily and seasonal  coefficients  with



nine of the fourteen subbasins (in contrast with  only one for the



daily and seasonal  flows)  falling within  the 95% confidence limits



determined  under the F-test  (i.e.,  a  statistical  test  which



verifies  whether  the  intercept  and  slope   are  significantly



different from 0 and 1, respectively).

-------
           A.I  EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHAWA RIVER AT SEG.  40
                                                                      4
Time  Series Plot of Simulated and Observed  Daily Flows for 1984-
1987

Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and Observed  Flows for
1984-1987

Plot  of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual Errors Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression  of  Log  Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Sguared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared  for 1984-1987

Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed  Flow Regression  Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                        12
          CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
       EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHftNNA RIVER,  PA (Segments 10, 20, 30 and 40)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 22.64
 13.59
 21.02
 15.59

 18.21
Simulated+
Flow (in)

 22.66
 15.57
 22.12
 16.59

 19.24
*   Observed flow Susquehanna River near Danville, PA
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 40
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily

 0.8465
 0.7382
 0.7763
 0.5454

 0.7453
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year        Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.5165
 0.2050
 0.5532
 0.2975
Ave. Monthly

 0.9349
 0.7992
 0.8726
 0.6868

 0.8398
 Season 2

 0.7085
 0.8719
 0.7257
 0.6177
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.7496

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3

0.9254
0.6493
0.8917
0.8387
Season 4

0.9708
0.9277
0.9280
0.8019

-------
                                                                        13
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLQGICAL SIMULATION
       EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER,  PA (Segments 10,  20,  30 and 40}
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
              Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
MONTHLY
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
54
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
1.1117
1.8411
0.8204
2.4920
1.4577
FLOWS
0.3610
1.6256
0.6539
1.3057
0.7783
FLOWS
-0.0982
0.8268
-0.2006
1.8281
5.5243
2.5211
1.9768
1.1219
0.6645
2.9919
-2.2777
0.6113
6.6499
3.6432
1.5030
-0.5272
1984-87
1.4403
            Probability
            lntercept=0*
                              0.0001
                              0.0001
                              0.0008
                              0.0001

                              0.0001
                              0.6458
                              0.2024
                              0.5572
                              0.4574

                              0.1654
0.9542
0.2026
0.4113
0.0001

0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.6521

0.5221
0.0001
0.0001
0.0200

0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.2982

0.0001
                Slope
                               0.8748
                               0.7860
                               0.9062
                               0.7184

                               0.8340
                               0.9561
                               0.8089
                               0.9266
                               0.8434

                               0.9065
0.9604
0.9236
1.0179
0.7994

0.3693
0.7549
0.7529
0.9592

0.9017
0.7113
1.2492
0.9194

0.2347
0.6635
0.8149
1.0281

0.8368
              Probability
                Slope=l*
                                 0.0001
                                 0.0001
                                 0.0003
                                 0.0001

                                 0.0001
                                 0.5947
                                 0.1669
                                 0.5268
                                 0.4048

                                 0.1162
0.8110
0.2294
0.5022
0.0001

0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.1453

0.3594
0.0001
0.0001
0.0031

0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.5972

0.0001
 * If probability is less  than  .05 (95% confidence  level)  then intercept
   is significantly  different from 0, or slope  is  significantly different
   from 1.

-------
           A.2  NEST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT SEG.  70
                                                                      14
Time  Series  Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily  Flows for 1984-
1987

Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series  Plot of Cumulative  Simulated and Observed  Flows for
1984-1987

Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over Percentile  Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression of  Log  Transformed Simulated  Flow vs.  Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                       32
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC  CALIBRATION
               jUNiATA RIVER BASIN,  PA (Segments 90 and 100)


COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED  FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 20.44
 15.84
 16.03
 14.50

 16.70
Simulated*
Flow (in)

 21.87
 17.46
 15.83
 13.81

 17.24
*   Observed flow Juniata River at Newport, PA
+   Simulated outflow  from RCH 100
REGRESSION OF  LOG  SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY  R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave.  Daily

  0.8554
  0.8177
  0.8395
  0.7861

  0.8213
 SEASONAL R-SQUARED
 Year

 1984
 1985
 1986
 1987
 Season 1

  0.8994
  0.6546
  0.4865
  0.0727
Ave. Monthly

0.9733
0.8822
0.8637
0.8930

0.8841
 Season 2

  0.7619
  0.8129
  0.8061
  0.7070
Season 3

 0.9268
 0.8184
 0.8869
 0.6645
Season 4

 0.8669
 0.9300
 0.9489
 0.8309
 Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.8236

 Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
 Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
 Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
 Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365,

-------
                                                                        33
             CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
                  JUNIATA RIVER, PA (Segments 90 and 100)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS

              Intercept    Probability        Slope
                           Intercept=0*
                                             Probability
                                               Slope=l*
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
-0.2682
0.5883
1.0836
0.1742
 1984-87

 MONTHLY FLOWS

    1984
    1985
    1986
    1987

 1984-87
 0.5440
-1.2317
 0.2148
 1.2098
-0.5743
 0.2701
 SEASONAL FLOWS

 1984 SI
      S2
      S3
      S4

 1985 SI
      S2
      S3
      S4

  1986 SI
      S2
      S3
       S4

  1987 Si
       S2
       S3
       S4

  1984-87
 2.0441
 3.1502
-2.1774
-0.2001

 1.5140
 0.9714
 2.8003
 0.9263

  0.0332
  1.4377
 -0.5323
  0.5142

  8.5792
  1.8174
  1.4754
 -0.9429

  0.5463
                               0.1357
                               0.0011
                               0.0001
                               0.4076

                               0.0001
0.0320
 ,8152
 ,1862
0.5509

0.5174
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.5225

0.0175
0.0139
0.0001
0.0001

0.9762
0.0002
0.0382
 0.0046

 0.0001
 0.0002
 0.0001
 0.0201

 0.0001
                               1.0218
                               0.9132
                               0.8699
                               0.9800

                               0.9281
1.1332
0.9580
0.8572
1.0729

0.9614
0.7972
0.6527
1.2443
1.0034

0.7891
0.9068
0.5696
0.8867

 0.9829
 0,8356
 1.1205
 0.9251

-0.0546
 0.8068
 0.7883
 1.1133

 0.9284
                                0.3231
                                0.0001
                                0.0001
                                0.4569

                                0.0001
0.0487
0.7124
0.2145
0.5485

0.4554
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.9328

0.0069
0.0475
0.0001
0.0001

0.8975
 0.0003
 0.0014
 0.0011

 0.0001
 0.0008
 0.0001
 0.0321

 0.0001
   * If  probability is less  than  .05 (95%
     is  significantly different from 0, or
     from  1.
                              confidence  level)  then intercept
                              slope is significantly different

-------
                                                                      34
              A.4  LONER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT SEG.  80
Time  Series Plot of Simulated and Observed  Daily Flows for 1984-
1987

Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987

Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression  of  Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed  Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                        42
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
             LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 80 and 110)


COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 23.60
 14.81
 19.96
 15.58

 18.49
Simulated*
Flow (in)

 21.84
 14.42
 19.54
 14.79

 17.65
*   Observed flow Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, PA
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 80
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SOUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily

 0.8823
 0.8018
 0.7734
 0.6750

 0.8013
Ave. Monthly

 0.9547
 0.8343
 0.8441
 0.7424

 0.8651
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.6994
 0.5866
 0.4031
 0.2474
Season 2

 0.7595
 0.8810
 0.7694
 0.7436
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.8037

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3

 0.9077
 0.7427
 0.8946
 0.8399
Season 4

 0.9242
 0.8875
 0.8976
 0.7431

-------
                                                                        43
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
             LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 80 and 110)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
              Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
0.7292
1.1309
0.9058
1.8850
1.0624
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
52
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-0.3074
0.6005
0.2742
1.1195
0.2890
FLOWS
1.2273
1.8761
0.2803
1.6449
3.5535
2.5275
-0.3771
-0.7641
2.2337
3.1680
-0.8766
-0.2950
5.7463
3.8656
2.3014
-0.7165
           Probability
           Intercept=0*
 1984-87
1.0350
                              0.0001
                              0.6840
                              0.6590
                              0.8440
                              0.5158

                              0.6173
0.2796
0.0009
0.3298
0.0001

0.0001
0.0001
0.4625
0.0599

0.0887
0.0001
0.0088
0.4266

0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.2761

0.0001
                Slope
                              0.9311
                              0.8873
                              0.9119
                              0.8133

                              0.8963
                               1.0312
                               0.9401
                               0.9750
                               0.8887

                               0.9725
                                              0.8862
                                              0.8427
                                              0.9690
                                              0.8321
                                              0.6364
                                              0.7847
                                              1.0468
                                              1,0533
0.7864
0.7176
1.0899
1.0118

0.4085
0.6679
0.7524
1.0581

0.8995
              Probability
                Slope=l*
                                 0.0001
                                 0.0001
                                 0.0007
                                 0.0001

                                 0.0001
                                 0.6702
                                 0.6611
                                 0.8540
                                 0.5165

                                 0.6290
0.2761
0.0025
0.2781
0.0001

0.0001
0.0001
0.4105
0.1738

0.0945
0.0001
0.0102
0.7397

0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.3705

0.0001
  *  If probability is  less than  .05  (95%  confidence level) then  intercept
    is significantly different  from  0,  or  slope is  significantly  different
    from 1.

-------
                                                                      44
      A. 5  SUSQUEHMWA RIVER AT CONOWINOO AT SBG. 140

Time  Series  Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987

Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series  Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987

Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors Over  Percentile Sample
Population

Regression of  Log  Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed  Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                        52
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
               CONOWINGO RESERVOIR,  HD (Segncnts  120  and  140)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 25.01
 15.27
 20.66
 16.16

 19.40
Sitnulated+
Flow (in)

 24.42
 16.16
 21.14
 16.15

 19.47
*   Observed flow Susquehanna River at Conowingo, MD
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 140
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily     Ave. Monthly
 0.8254
 0.7805
 0.7465
 0.6644

 0.7695
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.6282
 0.6574
 0.6106
 0.5232
0.9536
0.9074
0.8797
0.8324

0.9011
Season 2

 0.7755
 0.7063
 0.6984
 0.6653
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.7756

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3

 0.8919
 0.6636
 0.4918
 0.7914
Season 4

 0.8456
 0.8300
 0.9090
 0.5333

-------
                                                                        53
              CHESAPEAKE  BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
               CONOWINOO  RESERVOIR,  MD (Segments  120 and  140)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS

              Intercept    Probability        Slope
                           Intercept=0*
                                           Probability
                                             Slope=l*
DAILY FLOWS

   1984        0.8370
   1985        1.6082
   1986        1.9619
   1987        2.1809

1984-87        1.5321

MONTHLY  FLOWS

   1984        -0.3752
   1985        1.4136
   1986        1.0503
   1987        1.3145

 1984-87        0.7686

 SEASONAL FLOWS
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
5.2219
1.8330
-0.1594
0.8192
2.6312
3.5744
1.2040
0.8975
1.1810
3.7086
2.4168
1.4017
2.3558
4.7402
2.0184
0.8608
  1984-87
1.5377
              0.0003
              0.0001
              0.0001
              0.0001

              0.0001
              0.6321
              0.1396
              0.3607
              0.3218

              0.1063
                               0.0001
                               0.0010
                               0.6308
                               0.0369

                               0.0005
                               0.0001
                               0.0229
                               0.0418

                               0.2316
                               0.0001
                               0.0005
                               0.0001

                               0.0182
                               0.0001
                               0.0001
                               0.3383

                               0.0001
0.9225
0.8436
0.8165
0.7899

0.8550
1.0386
0.8648
0.9066
0.8760

0.9305
                              0.5404
                              0.8493
                              1.0126
                              0.9197

                              0.7260
                              0.6813
                              0.8822
                              0.9027

                              0.8883
                              0.6713
                              0.7624
                              0.8583

                              0.7458
                              0.5856
                              0.7997
                              0.9043

                              0.8554
0.0006
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.0001
0.6056
0.1528
0.3992
0.3420

0.1332
                  0.0001
                  0.0026
                  0.6990
                  0.0503

                  0.0002
                  0.0001
                  0.0439
                  0.0238

                  0.2354
                  0.0001
                  0.0012
                  0.0001

                  0.0086
                  0.0001
                  0.0001
                  0.2779

                  0.0001
   *  if  probability is  less  than .05  (95%  confidence  level) then intercept
     is  significantly different from  0,  or  slope is significantly different
     from 1.

-------
               A. 6  UPPER POTOMAC RIVER AT SEG. 175
                                                                       54
Time Series  Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily  Flows  for 1984-
1987

Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time Series  Plot of Cumulative  Simulated and Observed  Flows for
1984-1987

Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression of  Log Transformed Simulated Flow  vs.  Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression  Slope and
Intercept Statistics

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                                                                       62
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
            UPPER POTOMAC RIVER, VA (Segment 160, 170 and 175)


COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 18.19
 17.30
 11.35
 13.47

 15.08
Simulated*
Flow (in)

 20.39
 18.22
 10.55
 12.30

 15.37
*   Observed flow at Upper Potomac River at Hancock,  MD
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 175
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily    Ave. Monthly
 0.7730
 0.8365
 0.8209
 0.7796

 0.7795
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.8187
 0.7581
 0.7321
 0.2510
0.8706
0.9370
0.9205
0.8884

0.8563
Season 2

 0.6982
 0.7551
 0.8076
 0.7649
Season 3

 0.7782
 0.7502
 0.5378
 0.8007
Season 4

 0.7272
 0.8598
 0.8214
 0.7338
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.7849

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.

-------
                                                                          63
             CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
            UPPER POTOMAC RIVER, VA (Segments 160, 170 and 175)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
              Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
-0.5460
0.2712
2.1784
0.5891
1.1655
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
54
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
1984-87
-2.0439
-0.8655
1.9224
-0.2159
0.7716
FLOWS
0.0902
1.5469
1.5492
0.8742
1.3509
1.2084
0.4745
0.8742
-1.5292
1.1960
3.7912
3.2560
4.7998
0.8591
1.9152
0.9764
1.1417
Probability
Intercept-0*
                              0.0001
                              0.1346
                              0.2726
                              0.0055
                              0.8180

                              0.0863
                              0.9022
                              0.0046
                              0.0001
                              0.0424

                              0.0116
                              0.0068
                              0.1914
                              0.0067

                              0.0559
                              0.0018
                              0.0001
                              0.0001

                              0.0001
                              0.0730
                              0.0001
                              0.0191

                              0.0001
Slope
                   1.0340
                   0.9521
                   0.7319
                   0.9251

                   0.8465
                    .2062
                    .0901
                   0.7712
                   1.0250
                   0.8973
                   1.0011
                   0.8419
                   0.7466
                   0.8360

                   0.8250
                   0.8592
                   0.8987
                   0.8908

                   1.1504
                   0.8773
                   0.4696
                   0.5859

                   0.4000
                   0.9452
                   0.7133
                   0.8706

                   0.8505
Probability
  Slope-1*
                 0.2479
                 0.0307
                 0.0001
                 0.0039

                 0.0001
                 0.1913
                 0.3372
                 0.0096
                 0.8324

                 0.0643
                 0.9891
                 0.0088
                 0.0001
                 0.0025

                 0.0059
                 0.0084
                 0.0359
                 0.0043

                 0.1053
                 0.0086
                 0.0001
                 0.0001

                 0.0001
                 0.3289
                 0.0001
                 0.0193

                 0.0001
  *  If  probability is  less  than .05 (951 confidence  level)  then intercept
    is  significantly different from 0,  or slope  is significantly different
    from 1.

-------
                                                                     64
                 A. 7  SHENANDORH RIVER AT SEG.  200
 Time  Series Plot of Simulated and  Observed  Daily Flows for 1984-
 1987

 Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
 for 1984-1987

 Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and  Observed  Flows for
 1984-1987

 Plot  of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

 Distribution  of Percent  Relative  Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
 Population

 Distribution  of  Percent  Actual Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
 Population

 Regression  of  Log  Transformed Simulated Flow vs.  Log Transformed
 Observed Flow Scatter Plot

 Comparison  of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

 Log Transformed  Simulated  and Observed Flow Regression  Slope and
 Intercept Statistics

-------
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-------
                                                                        72
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
                SHENANDOftH RIVER, VA (Segments 190 and 200)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 17.73
 12.93
  6.88
 13.88

 12.86
Siraulated+
Flow (in)

 19.14
 13.43
  6.36
 12.36

 12.82
*   Observed flow at Shenandoah River at Millville, WV
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 200
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily

 0.7131
 0.7684
 0.8712
 0.7684

 0.7770
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.8639
 0.5686
 0.7897
 0.2211
Ave. Monthly

0.8006
0.8786
0.9225
0.8474

0.8382
Season 2

 0.7623
 0.3898
 0.7927
 0.7861
Season 3

 0.7458
 0.6388
 0.7469
 0.8269
Season 4

 0.6329
 0.9035
 0.8920
 0.8535
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.7775

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.

-------
                                                                        73
             CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
                SHENANDOAH RIVER, VA (Segments 190 and 200)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS

              Intercept    Probability        Slope
          probability
          lntercept=0*
                            probability
                              Slope=l*
 DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
-0.5403
0.0080
1.1241
0.2182
 1984-87
                0.6311
 MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
-2.4452
-0.5971
1.0173
-0.0880
  1984-87        0.4057

  SEASONAL FLOWS

  1984 SI
       S2
       S3
       54
   1985 SI
        S2
        S3
        S4

   1986 Si
        S2
        S3
        54

    1987 Si
        52
        S3
        S4

    1984-87
2.5127
1.5278
2.4783
1.1735

 1.3264
 2.1346
-0.5090
-0.7249

-1.7731
 1.6731
 0.7678
 2.3518

 4.3141
 1.3851
  1.4309
 -1.1032

  0.6359
                               0.0524
                               0.9702
                               0.0001
                               0.3075

                               0.0001
                                0.1664
                                0.5498
                                0.0983
                                0.9349

                                0.3891
0.0001
0.0007
0,0001
0.0140

0.0853
0.0038
0.3146
0.0141

 0.0073
 0.0001
 0.0126
 0.0001

 0.0001
 0.0008
 0.0001
 0.0027

 0.0001
       if probability  is less thai,_ -05 (95%
       is significantly  different from 0, or
       from 1.
                              1.0408
                              0.9797
                              0.8523
                              0.9773

                              0.9089
                                ,2654
                                .0646
                               0.8694
                               1.0160

                               0.9392
0.7508
0.8412
0.6186
0.7698

0.8212
0.7413
1.0220
1.0548

1.2125
0.8150
0.8972
 0.6521

 0.4371
 0.8845
 0.7885
 1.1451

 0.9077
                               0.2386
                               0.4726
                               0.0001
                               0.4206

                               0.0001
                                0.2134
                                0.6171
                                0.1323
                                0.9088

                                0.3226
0.0001
0.0021
0.0001
0.0003

0.0619
0.0104
0.7564
0.1287

 0.0122
 0.0001
 0.0347
 0.0001

 0.0001
 0.0211
 0.0001
 0.0040

 0.0001
                             confidence  level)  then intercept
                              slope  is significantly different

-------
                                                                      74
               A.8  LONER POTOMAC RIVER AT SEG. 220
Time  Series  Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily  Flows for 1984-
1987

Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series  Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987

Plot  of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over Percentile  Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression of  Log  Transformed Simulated Flow vs.  Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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-------
                                                                        82
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
              LONER POTOMAC RIVER (Segments 180, 210 and 220)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow  (in)

 20.01
 14.28
 10.27
 14.18

 14.69
Simulated+
Flow (in)

 20.54
 14.26
  9.42
 12.90

 14.28
*   Observed flow Potomac River at Chain Bridge near Washington, DC
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 220
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily     Ave. Monthly
 0.7788
 0.8307
 0.8867
 0.7918

 0.8351
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.8537
 0.7789
 0.9192
 0.2833
0.8343
0.8997
0.9169
0.8323

0.8726
Season 2

 0.8664
 0.7644
 0.8830
 0.8539
Season 3

 0.8027
 0.7991
 0.7502
 0.8048
Season 4

 0.7377
 0.8723
 0.9072
 0.8116
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.8362

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.

-------
                                                                        83
             CHESAPEAKE RAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
              LONER POTOMAC RIVER (Segments 180, 210 and 220)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS

              Intercept    Probability        Slope
                           Intercept^*
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
-0.9002
-0.6661
0.0242
-0.2421
-0.1943
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
52
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-2.7102
-1.7322
-0.2858
-0.8520
-0.6517
FLOWS
2.3936
1.3401
2.1168
0.4304
-0.8234
0.9255
-0.6215
-0.6980
-3.8366
1.2901
-0.9287
1.4661
4.6871
0.9208
1.2004
-1.0848
 1984-87
-0.2062
                              0.0645
                               0.1416
                               0.1582
                               0.7399
                               0.5556

                               0.2355
                               0.0002
                               0.0005
                               0.0001
                               0.3902

                               0.2467
                               0.0624
                               0.1236
                               0.0781

                               0.0001
                               0.0001
                               0.0379
                               0.0001

                               0.0001
                               0.0220
                               0.0002
                               0.0256

                               0.0511
                               1.0745
                               1.0550
                               0.9879
                               1.0176

                               1.0067
                                 ,2569
                                 ,1749
                                 ,0256
                                 ,0846
                               1.0569
                               0.7921
                               0.8875
                               0.7193
                               0.8943

                               1.0719
                               0.9201
                               1.0309
                               1.0414

                               1.3935
                               0.8876
                               1.1069
                               0.7878

                               0.4814
                               0.9472
                               0.8268
                               1.0921

                               1.0080
                                             Probability
                                               Slope=l*
                                                               0.0136
                                                               0.0285
                                                               0.5132
                                                               0.5218

                                                               0.5690
0.1776
0.1889
0.7983
0.5947

0.3441
0.0011
0.0032
0.0001
0.0577

0.3418
0.1460
0.5179
0.3186

0.0001
0.0016
0.0717
0.0001

0.0001
0.2099
0.0001
0.0949

0.4966
  * If  probability is less  than  .05 (95% confidence  level)  then intercept
    is  significantly different from Or or  slope  is significantly different
    from 1.

-------
                                                                      84
                  A. 9  PATOXENT RIVER AT SEG. 340
Time  Series Plot of Simulated and  Observed  Daily Flows for 1984-
1987

Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and  Observed Flows for
1984-1987

Plot  of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of  Percent  Relative  Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression  of  Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs.  Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison  of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                       92
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
                   PATUXENT RIVER (Segments 330 and 340)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 17.12
  8.41
  8.42
 11.39

 11.34
Simulated*
Flow (in)

 14.24
  8.91
 10.46
 13.39

 11.75
    Observed flow Patuxent River near Bowie, MD
    Simulated outflow from RCH 340
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Ave. Daily    Ave. Monthly
 0.6492
 0.4288
 0.6495
 0.5508

 0.5928
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.3952
 0.5542
 0.4873
 0.3031
0.8939
0.5142
0.8904
0.8091

0.7729
Season 2

 0.5548
 0.1211
 0.4494
 0.3932
Season 3

 0.2991
 0.5029
 0.1614
 0.5198
Season 4

 0.4183
 0.1331
 0.6112
 0.7257
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.5929

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.

-------
                                                                        93
             CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
                   PATUXENT RIVER (Segments 330 and 340)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS

              Intercept    Probability        Slope
                           lntercept=0*
                                            Probability
                                              Slope=l*
DAILY FLOWS

   1984        2.1278
   1985        2.4555
   1986        2.3991
   1987        2.2773

1984-87        2.2545

MONTHLY  FLOWS

   1984        2.5866
   1985        3.2137
   1986        2.3438
   1987        2.3964

 1984-87         2.4907

 SEASONAL FLOWS
 1984 SI
      S2
      S3
      S4
2.9599
1.6789
2.2679
0.4862
 1985 SI        0.2887
      52        2.8116
      S3        1.3192
      S4        3.5320

 1986 SI        1.4806
      S2        1.4599
      S3        1.8794
      S4        2.6999

 1987 SI        1.4845
      S2        0.4747
      S3        2.1335
      54        -1.0336

 1984-87        2.2499
              0.0001
              0.0001
              0.0001
              0.0001

              0.0001
               0.0001
               0.0006
                .0001
                .0007
0.
0.
               0.0001
0.0003
0.0005
0.0001
0.4017

0.6385
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.0087
0.0025
0.0011
0.0001

0.0890
0.4994
0.0001
 0.0134

 0.0001
               0.7179
               0.5961
               1.5854
               0.6057

               0.6407
0.6490
0.4613
0.6171
0.6032

0.6153
0.6038
0.7946
0.6730
1.1224

1.0203
0.5188
0.9015
0.3635

0.7513
0.7656
0.7164
0.5336

0.6993
0.9480
 0.6606
 1.2204

 0.6414
                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0001

                 0.0001
0.0006
0.0035
0.0002
0.0016

0.0001
0.0052
0.0082
0.0008
0.3722

0.8667
0.0017
0.2348
0.0001

0.0170
0.0111
0.0616
0.0001

0.0350
0.6795
 0.0001
 0.0057

 0.0001
   * If probability  is  less than  .05  (95%  confidence level) then  intercept
     is significantly different  from 0,  or slope  is  significantly  different
     from 1.

-------
                                                                     94
               A.10  RAPPAHfiNNOCK RIVER AT SBG. 230
Time Series  Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily  Flows  for 1984-
1987

Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time Series  Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and Observed  Flows for
1984-1987

Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over Percentile  Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression of  Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs.  Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression  Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                       ID;
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
                    RAPPAHMWOCK RIVER, VA (Segment 230)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 21.77
 13.05
  7.48
 13.43

 13.93
Simulated+
Flow (in)

 18,42
 12.50
  6.02
 17.36

 13.58
    Observed flow Rappahannock River near Fredericksburg, VA
    Simulated outflow from RCH 230
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Ave. Daily     Ave. Monthly
 0.6811
 0.7332
 0.6921
 0.7424

 0.7019
0.7890
0.8359
0.8373
0.8402

0.7828
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year        Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.7406
 0.5151
 0.6110
 0.2832
 Season 2

 0.7555
 0.6294
 0.6680
 0.7568
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.7018

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3

0.5430
0.5955
0.3064
0.8395
Season 4

0.1554
0.8977
0.3767
0.7477

-------
                                                                        103
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL  SIMULATION
                    RAPPAHANNOCK RTVER, VA (Segment  230)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
              Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
MONTHLY
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
54
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
0.6844
1.1164
0.2971
-0.9712
0.6896
FLOWS
1.3178
1.8608
-0.3061
-1.1152
1.0523
FLOWS
2.5563
0.4016
0.4628
-0.0692
3.2163
1.5471
-4.3846
0.1478
0.7233
0.9839
-0.9241
0.1444
3.1826
0.8683
-2.2039
0.6474
1984-87
0.6826
            Probability
            Intercept=0*
                              0.0041
                              0.0001
                              0.1593
                              0.0001

                              0.0001
                              0.2243
                              0.0258
                              0.7508
                              0.3458

                              0.0274
0.0001
0.3991
0.3909
0.0019

0.0001
0.0005
0.0001
0.5497

0.2986
0.0358
0.2950
0.8505

0.0003
0.0323
0.0001
0.0821

0.0001
                Slope
                               0.9369
                               0.8870
                               0.9799
                               1.1097

                               0.9186
                               0.8598
                               0.7959
                                .0840
                                .1329
                1.
                1.
                               0,8779
0.7162
1.0039
0.9187
1.0918

0.6393
0.8762
1.9083
0.9609

0.9147
0.8947
1.1378
1.0769

0.5697
0.8793
1.2408
0.8858

0.9197
              Probability
                Slope=l*
                                 0.0610
                                 0.0001
                                 0.5581
                                 0.0015

                                 0.0001
                 0.3421
                 0.0971
                 0.5904
                 0.4149

                 0.0799
0.0006
0.9490
0.2969
0.7274

0.0001
0.0876
0.0001
0.2477

0.3771
0.1210
0.3836
0.5937

0.0006
0.0255
0.0001
0.0350

0.0001
 * If  probability is less  than  .05 (95% confidence  level)  then intercept
   is  significantly  different from 0, or slope  is significantly different
   from 1.

-------
                                                                      104
                 A.ll  MATTAPONI RIVER AT SBG. 240
 Time  Series Plot of Simulated  and  Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
 1987

 Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
 for 1984-1987

 Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative Simulated  and  Observed  Flows for
 1984-1987

 Plot  of Percent Chance  Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

 Distribution  of  Percent Relative  Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
 Population

 Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
 Population

 Regression  of  Log Transformed  Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
 Observed Flow Scatter Plot

 Comparison  of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared  for  1984-1987

 Log Transformed  Simulated and  Observed Flow Regression  Slope and
 Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                        112
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
                 MATTAPONI RIVER, VA (Segments 235 and 240)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow  (in)

 21.65
 11.81
  7.57
 12.42

 13.36
Simulated*
Flow (in)

 29.82
 15.06
  4.62
 13.78

 13.32
*   Observed flow Mattaponi River at Beulah, VA
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 240
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED PLOT
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Ave. Daily    Ave. Monthly
 0.7677
 0.5081
 0.6441
 0.7360

 0.6791
0.8563
0.5878
0.7825
0.8274

0.7671
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.5034
 0.6949
 0.5923
 0.1132
Season 2

 0.8535
 0.4329
 0.5424
 0.7140
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.6760

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3

 0.5236
 0.4927
 0.5715
 0.6538
Season 4

 0.5843
 0.6109
 0.3967
 0.2467

-------
                                                                        113
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
                 MATTAPCNI RIVER,  VA (Segments 235 and 240)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS

              Intercept    Probability        Slope
                           Inter cept=*0*
                 ,7878
                 ,9394
                 .3785
                 .5867
DAILY FLOWS

   1984        1.4365
   1985        2.3103
   1986        1
   1987        1

1984-87        1.9482

MONTHLY FLOWS

   1984        1
   1985        2
   1986        0.3374
   1987        1.0922

1984-87        1.5800

SEASONAL FLOWS

1984 SI        3.5911
     52        0.4733
     S3        0.7701
     S4        2.4031

1985 SI        1.1104
     S2        4.0035
     S3        1.6907
     54        0.6664

1986 SI        3.8770
     52        2.3197
     S3        1.9536
     54        2.6665

1987 SI        5.2103
     S2        2.3758
     S3        2.4631
     S4        9.7613

1984-87        1.9456
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.0001
0.0684
0.0177
0.7021
0.2578

0.0001
                              0.0001
                              0.1233
                              0.0917
                              0.0001

                              0.0236
                              0.0001
                              0.0001
                              0.1718

                              0.0001
                              0.0001
                              0.0001
                              0.0001

                              0.0001
                              0.0001
                              0.0001
                              0.4589

                              0.0001
0.7947
0.5963
0.7444
0.6983

0.6944
0.8119
0.5684
1.0345
0.8366

0.7635
                0.4713
                0.9447
                0.8970
                0.6356

                0.8483
                0.3580
                0.5758
                0.8447

                0.4301
                0.6762
                0.5850
                0.5967

                0.2238
                0.6825
                0.5291
               -0.7768

                0.6951
                                                            Probability
                                                              Slope=l*
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001

0.0001
0.1040
0.0167
0.8455
0.2953

0.0006
                 0.0001
                 0.1886
                 0.1937
                 0.0001

                 0.0444
                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0287

                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0001

                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0001
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                 0.0001
 * If  probability is less  than .05 (95%  confidence  level)  then intercept
   is  significantly different from 0,  or  slope is significantly different
   from 1.

-------
                 A.12   PAMUNKEY RIVER AT SEG. 260
                                                                      114
Time  Series Plot of Simulated and Observed  Daily Flows for 1984-
1987

Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and Observed  Flows for
1984-1987

Plot  of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of Percent  Relative Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual Errors Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression  of  Log  Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison  of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed  Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                       122
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
                 PAMUNKEY RIVER, VA (Segments 250 and 260)


COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
YEAR

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)

 20.59
 13.95
  7.80
 14.71

 14.26
Simulated*
Flow (in)

 20.20
 15.80
  5.64
 14.74

 14.10
*   Observed flow Pamunkey River at Hanover, VA
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 260
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily    Ave. Monthly
 0.8367
 0.6717
 0.6708
 0.7335

 0.7170
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year        Season 1
 1984
 1985
 1986
 1987
  0.6291
  0.7721
  0.8393
  0.0561
0.9471
0.8282
0.8654
0.8414

0.8323
Season 2

 0.8001
 0.4892
 0.7421
 0.7344
Season 3

 0.7665
 0.6723
 0.5129
 0.7790
Season 4

 0.6570
 0.8124
 0.3301
 0.7335
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.7161

Season 1 is from Julian day 1  to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to  270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to  365.

-------
                                                                        123
              CHESAPEAKE  BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL  SIMULATION
                 PAMUNKEY RIVER, VA (Segments 250 and 260)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS

                                              Slope
Intercept    Probability
             lntercept=0*
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
-0.0017
1.4676
0.9514
-0.5828
0.9142
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-0.3076
1.9904
0.2564
-1.2597
0.9149
FLOWS
1.9221
1.2863
-1.2204
0.6350
0.6032
2.4627
0.9603
-1.9164
2.2492
0.8994
-1.1538
2.2261
5.5811
0.9969
-0.5180
-1.4076
 1984-87
  0.8996
                              0.0001
                              0.5898
                              0.0156
                              0.7367
                              0.2777

                              0.0210
0.0209
0.0004
0.0017
0.1290

0.1951
0.0001
0.0021
0.0001

0.0001
0.0131
0.0489
0.0001

0.0001
0.0162
0.0867
0.0043

0.0001
                                0.9974
                                0.7630
                                0.8952
                                1.0572

                                0.8601
                                1.0449
                                0.7084
                                 ,0205
                                 .1649
                                0.8721
0.7552
0.8440
1.1724
0.9054

0.9206
0.6730
0.7974
1.1873

0.6963
0.9246
1.2657
0.6847

0.2153
0.8912
1.0216
1.1332

0.8627
                              Probability
                                Slope=l*
                                 0.9111
                                 0.0001
                                 0.0016
                                 0.0880

                                 0.0001
                                 0.5784
                                 0.0170
                                 0.8755
                                 0.3268

                                 0.0317
                                                               0.0230
                                                               0.0008
                                                               0.0045
                                                               0.1641

                                                               0.2313
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0021

                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.1978
                                                               0.0210
                                                               0.0024

                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0602
                                                               0.6672
                                                               0.0631

                                                               0.0001
  *  If probability is  less than  .05  (95%  confidence level) then  intercept
    is significantly different  from  0,  or  slope is  significantly  different
    from 1.

-------
                   A.13  JAMES RIVER AT SBG. 280
                                                                      124
Time  Series Plot of Simulated and  Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987

Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987

Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated  and  Observed  Flows for
1984-1987

Plot  of Percent Chance  Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

Distribution  of  Percent  Relative  Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
Population

Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
Population

Regression  of  Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot

Comparison  of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed  Flow Regression  Slope and
Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                        132
               CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
              JAMES RIVER,  VA (Segments 265,  270,  280 and 290)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Observed*
Flow  (in)

 20.52
 16.33
  9.10
 19.16

 16.28
Simulated*
Flow (in)

 20.34
 16.82
  7.84
 21.26

 16.57
*   Observed flow James River at Cartersville, VA
+   Simulated outflow from RCH 280
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

Mean
Ave. Daily     Ave. Monthly
 0.7889
 0.7723
 0.7879
 0.8344

 0.8023
0.8575
0.8400
0.8334
0.8712

0.8408
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.8385
 0.7054
 0.8705
 0.3120
Season 2

 0.8088
 0.6925
 0.6809
 0.8392
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.8032

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3

 0.6564
 0.8105
 0.6089
 0,8922
Season 4

 0.7388
 0.9513
 0.9258
 0.8326

-------
                                                                        133
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
              JANES  RIVER, VA  (Segments  265,  270, 280 and 290)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
              Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
MONTHLY
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 51
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
54
0.7749
1.7957
2.0394
0.6966
1.6848
FLOWS
-0.5275
2.0610
2.3106
0.4800
1.8429
FLOWS
1.1942
2.1270
3.3052
1.0623
0.9185
3.5704
1.7116
0.1173
1.1401
2.9523
1.3106
1.6326
4.5913
1.3015
1.8128
0.0623
            Probability
            lntercept=0*
1984-87
1.6707
                              0.0001
                              0.6739
                              0.0473
                              0.0187
                              0.6435

                              0.0001
0.0709
0.0001
0.0001
0.0174

0.1834
0.0001
0.0001
0.5613

0.0038
0.0001
0.0045
0.0001

0.0001
0.0010
0.0001
0.8694

0.0001
                Slope
                              0.9109
                              0.8003
                              0.7826
                              0.9152

                              0.8118
                               1.0524
                               0.7727
                               0.7525
                               0.9371

                               0.7946
0.8913
0.7984
0.5937
0.8607

0.9015
0.6345
0.7858
0.9673

0.8969
0.7101
0.8874
0.7897

0.4803
0.8889
0.7560
0.9809

0.8140
              Probability
                Slope=l*
                                 0.0004
                                 0.0001
                                 0.0001
                                 0.0001

                                 0.0001
                                 0.7076
                                 0.0589
                                 0.0424
                                 0.5929

                                 0.0002
                                                               0.1257
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0097

                                                               0.2029
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.1534

                                                               0.0269
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0880
                                                               0.0001

                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.0088
                                                               0.0001
                                                               0.6769

                                                               0.0001
 *  If  probability is less  than .05  (95%  confidence  level)  then intercept
    is  significantly different from 0,  or  slope is significantly different
    from  1.

-------
                                                                      134
                A.14 APPOMATTQX RIVER AT SBG. 310
 Time  Series Plot of Simulated and  Observed  Daily Flows for 1984-
 1987

 Time  Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
 for 1984-1987

 Time  Series Plot of  Cumulative  Simulated and  Observed  Flows for
 1984-1987

 Plot  of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow

 Distribution  of Percent  Relative  Errors  Over  Percentile Sample
 Population

 Distribution  of  Percent  Actual  Errors  Over  Percentile  Sample
 Population

 Regression  of  Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs.  Log Transformed
 Observed Flow Scatter Plot

 Comparison  of  Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow

Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987

Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987

 Log Transformed  Simulated and Observed  Flow Regression  Slope and
 Intercept Statistics

-------
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                                                                        142
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLQGIC CALIBRATION
                APPOMATTOK RIVER, VA (Segments 300 and 310)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow  (in)

 18.16
 12.83
  7.68
 14.55

 13.31
Simulated+
Flow (in)

 19.16
 14.31
  7.72
 14.31

 13.88
    Observed flow Appomattox River at Matoaca, VA
    Simulated outflow from RCH 310
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year

1984
1985
1986
1987

1984-87
Ave. Daily     Ave. Monthly
 0.7530
 0.7194
 0.6496
 0.7581

 0.7328
0.8556
0.7722
0.8015
0.8198

0.8153
SEASONAL R-SQUARED

Year       Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
 0.6822
 0.7353
 0.6589
 0.2975
Season 2

 0.8600
 0.6779
 0.6221
 0.8043
Overall Seasonal R-squared  0.7294

Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day .61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3

 0.5882
 0.6962
 0.4332
 0.5781
Season 4

 0.1578
 0.7404
 0.6132
 0.5074

-------
                                                                       143
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL  SIMULATION
                APPOMATTOX RIVER, VA  (Segments 300 and 310)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
              Intercept
                 2532
                 4684
                 5620
DAILY FLOWS

   1984        1.
   1985        1,
   1986        0,
   1987        0.1627

1984-87        0.8305

MONTHLY FLOWS

   1984
   1985
   1986
   1987

1984-87        0.7049

SEASONAL FLOWS
               1.
               1.
 .3858
 .3586
0.0315
0.2097
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-1.6555
0.0547
0.2774
3.5195
-0.7842
2.9011
1.8850
-1.8084
2.0742
0.4470
2.1253
0.5877
3.0756
0.3632
0.3915
0.1379
1984-87
               0.8186
                           Probability
                           lntercept=0*
               0.0001
               0.0001
               0.0097
               0.3953

               0.0001
0.0938
0.1701
0.9752
0.8357

0.1040
               0.1587
               0.8703
               0.5546
               0.0001

               0.2261
               0.0001
               0.0001
               0.0013

               0.0001
               0.3908
               0.0001
               0.1918

               0.0014
               0.3253
               0.3265
               0.8337

               0.0001
                               Slope
                0.8107
                0.7605
                0.8985
                0.9613

                0.8616
0.8077
0.7896
0.9867
0.9700

0.8925
                                              1.1683
                                              0.9794
                                              0.9128
                                              0.4731

                                              1.1224
                                              0.5769
                                              0.6467
                                              1.1509

                                              0.7235
                                              0.9632
                                              0.5683
                                              0.8753
                                                .5714
                                                .9609
                                              0.8858
                                              0.9929
                                              0,
                                              0.
                0.8639
                              Probability
                                Slope=l*
                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0036
                 0.1757

                 0.0001
0.0968
0.1519
0.9333
0.8391

0.0927
                 0.2412
                 0.6267
                 0.2171
                 0.0001

                 0.1717
                 0.0001
                 0.0001
                 0.0354

                 0.0002
                 0.6463
                 0.0001
                 0.0869

                 0.0005
                 0.4413
                 0.1039
                 0.9444

                 0.0001
 * If  probability is less  than  .05 (951 confidence  level)  then intercept
   is  significantly  different from 0, or  slope is significantly different
   from 1.

-------

-------