CBP/TRS 62/91
April 1991
EPA
903
CBP/
TRS
62/91
Watershed Model Application
to Calculate Bay Nutrient
Loadings
Final Findings and
Recommendations
Appendix A Hydrology
Calibration Results
H^^Chesapeake
VSaS* _ Bay
Program
-------
-------
Watershed Model Application to Calculate
Bay Nutrient Loadings:
Final Findings and Recommendations
Appendix A Hydrology Calibration Results
Lewis C. Linker
Diana Y. Alegre
Chesapeake Bay Program Office
Annapolis, Maryland 21403
v'/EPA
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t
<\s
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LLJ
CO
CHESAPEAKE BAY PROGRAM OFFICE
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
REGION IE
ANNAPOLIS, MD 21403
Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program
HEADQUARTERS LIBRARY
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20460
-------
-------
APPENDIX A
HYDROLOGY CALIBRATION RESULTS
Table .of Contents
Appendix Suntnary
A.I East Branch Susquehanna River
A.2 West Branch Susquehanna River
A.3 Juniata River
A.4 Lower Susquehanna River
A.5 Susquehanna River at Conowingo
A.6 Upper Potomac River
A.7 Shenandoah River
A.8 Lower Potomac River
A.9 Patuxent River
A. 10 Rappahannock River
A. 11 Mattaponi River
A.12 Pamunkey River
A.13 James River
A. 14 Appomattox River
4
14
24
34
44
54
64
74
84
94
104
114
124
134
-------
-------
APPENDIX SUMMARY
Appendix A provides the results of the Watershed Model Phase
II Hydrology Calibration. Presented are plots and statistical
tables comparing the simulated and observed flows covering the
period 1984-1987 for each of the major calibration stations of the
fourteen subbasins of the Chesapeake Bay. Specifically, this
appendix includes the following plots: a) time series plots of
simulated and observed daily flows for 1984-1987; b) time series
plots of residuals (simulated minus observed daily flows); c) time
series plots of cumulative simulated and observed flows; d) plots
of percent chance flow exceeded vs. streamflow; e) distribution of
percent relative errors and actual errors over the percentile
sample population; and e) scatter plots of the regression of log
transformed simulated flows on log transformed observed flows.
This Appendix also contains statistical tables, as follows: a)
comparison of annual total observed and simulated flows; and, b)
regression statistics including average daily, monthly and seasonal
R2's, and intercept and slope statistics.
The time series overlay plots of simulated and observed daily
flows show good agreement between the model results and the
monitoring data. The differences occur during the winter months
when the model manifests higher flows compared with the observed
flows, and in the spring periods when the simulated values are
lower than the observed. These may be attributed to difficulties
in simulating snowmelt. In general, the model anticipates the
observed peak flows with a one to two days phasing difference as
-------
illustrated by the residual plots which characteristically show an
initial overshoot followed immediately by an undershoot of the
simulated flows during major storm events.
The state of model calibration is also demonstrated by the
cumulative flow plots. For most of the subbasins, the cumulative
plots depict a very close tracking of the observed cumulative flows
by the cumulative simulated flows. Only Rappahannock and Mattaponi
show relatively poor correspondence of the simulated and observed
values due to the persistent undersimulation of flows in both
rivers. The percent chance flow exceeded plots affirm that the
simulated and observed values favorably compare with each other.
The relative error plots (i.e., where relative error is
computed as the simulated minus observed values divided by the
observed values) show that over 90% of the daily simulated flows
are within -100% to 100% error with respect to the observed flows.
However, for most of the subbasins about 60-85% of the relative
errors fall within the -50% to 50% range. Virtually all of the
daily simulated flow values deviate with the observed flows within
the range, -10,000 to +10,000 cfs. Almost all of the actual error
plots display a flat curve about 0 cfs. The sigmoidal shape of the
relative and actual eror plots indicate that the errors are
normally distributed.
The scatter plots of the regression of log simulated flows on
log observed flow show that generally the model has no bias, and
that the subbasins, Appomattox and Mattaponi, bear the greatest
difference between the log simulated and log observed values. it
should be noted that the flows in the two rivers are controlled to
-------
a high degree by reservoir water releases.
The regression results reveal that there is, in general, a
linear dependence between the log simulated and log observed flows
with the 1984-1987 R2' s varying from 0.59 to 0.83 for the daily
flows, and from 0.76 to 0.90 for the monthly flows. The average
daily and monthly R2' s for the period 1984-1987 are 0.75 and 0.84,
respectively. The monthly flow R2' s are invariably higher than
the daily flow R2's due to aggregation of data. The seasonal flow
regressions exhibit lower R2's compared to the daily and monthly
flow regressions. The best simulations were obtained for the
summer and fall seasons due to low flows, while the overall least
agreement was obtained for the winter season as the model
oversimulated the high or peak flows -- that is, the seasonal
regression coefficients are mostly high for Seasons 3 and 4 (or the
151st to 365th day of the Julian year), and low for Season 1 (or
the 1st to the 60th day of the year).
The intercept and slope statistics show parallel results. The
1984-87 monthly flow intercept and slope coefficients are
noticeably improved over the daily and seasonal coefficients with
nine of the fourteen subbasins (in contrast with only one for the
daily and seasonal flows) falling within the 95% confidence limits
determined under the F-test (i.e., a statistical test which
verifies whether the intercept and slope are significantly
different from 0 and 1, respectively).
-------
A.I EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHAWA RIVER AT SEG. 40
4
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Sguared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
-------
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12
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHftNNA RIVER, PA (Segments 10, 20, 30 and 40)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
22.64
13.59
21.02
15.59
18.21
Simulated+
Flow (in)
22.66
15.57
22.12
16.59
19.24
* Observed flow Susquehanna River near Danville, PA
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 40
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily
0.8465
0.7382
0.7763
0.5454
0.7453
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.5165
0.2050
0.5532
0.2975
Ave. Monthly
0.9349
0.7992
0.8726
0.6868
0.8398
Season 2
0.7085
0.8719
0.7257
0.6177
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.7496
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3
0.9254
0.6493
0.8917
0.8387
Season 4
0.9708
0.9277
0.9280
0.8019
-------
13
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLQGICAL SIMULATION
EAST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 10, 20, 30 and 40}
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
MONTHLY
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
54
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
1.1117
1.8411
0.8204
2.4920
1.4577
FLOWS
0.3610
1.6256
0.6539
1.3057
0.7783
FLOWS
-0.0982
0.8268
-0.2006
1.8281
5.5243
2.5211
1.9768
1.1219
0.6645
2.9919
-2.2777
0.6113
6.6499
3.6432
1.5030
-0.5272
1984-87
1.4403
Probability
lntercept=0*
0.0001
0.0001
0.0008
0.0001
0.0001
0.6458
0.2024
0.5572
0.4574
0.1654
0.9542
0.2026
0.4113
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.6521
0.5221
0.0001
0.0001
0.0200
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.2982
0.0001
Slope
0.8748
0.7860
0.9062
0.7184
0.8340
0.9561
0.8089
0.9266
0.8434
0.9065
0.9604
0.9236
1.0179
0.7994
0.3693
0.7549
0.7529
0.9592
0.9017
0.7113
1.2492
0.9194
0.2347
0.6635
0.8149
1.0281
0.8368
Probability
Slope=l*
0.0001
0.0001
0.0003
0.0001
0.0001
0.5947
0.1669
0.5268
0.4048
0.1162
0.8110
0.2294
0.5022
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.1453
0.3594
0.0001
0.0001
0.0031
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.5972
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
A.2 NEST BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT SEG. 70
14
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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32
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
jUNiATA RIVER BASIN, PA (Segments 90 and 100)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
20.44
15.84
16.03
14.50
16.70
Simulated*
Flow (in)
21.87
17.46
15.83
13.81
17.24
* Observed flow Juniata River at Newport, PA
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 100
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily
0.8554
0.8177
0.8395
0.7861
0.8213
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Season 1
0.8994
0.6546
0.4865
0.0727
Ave. Monthly
0.9733
0.8822
0.8637
0.8930
0.8841
Season 2
0.7619
0.8129
0.8061
0.7070
Season 3
0.9268
0.8184
0.8869
0.6645
Season 4
0.8669
0.9300
0.9489
0.8309
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.8236
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365,
-------
33
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
JUNIATA RIVER, PA (Segments 90 and 100)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept Probability Slope
Intercept=0*
Probability
Slope=l*
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
-0.2682
0.5883
1.0836
0.1742
1984-87
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
0.5440
-1.2317
0.2148
1.2098
-0.5743
0.2701
SEASONAL FLOWS
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 Si
S2
S3
S4
1984-87
2.0441
3.1502
-2.1774
-0.2001
1.5140
0.9714
2.8003
0.9263
0.0332
1.4377
-0.5323
0.5142
8.5792
1.8174
1.4754
-0.9429
0.5463
0.1357
0.0011
0.0001
0.4076
0.0001
0.0320
,8152
,1862
0.5509
0.5174
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.5225
0.0175
0.0139
0.0001
0.0001
0.9762
0.0002
0.0382
0.0046
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0201
0.0001
1.0218
0.9132
0.8699
0.9800
0.9281
1.1332
0.9580
0.8572
1.0729
0.9614
0.7972
0.6527
1.2443
1.0034
0.7891
0.9068
0.5696
0.8867
0.9829
0,8356
1.1205
0.9251
-0.0546
0.8068
0.7883
1.1133
0.9284
0.3231
0.0001
0.0001
0.4569
0.0001
0.0487
0.7124
0.2145
0.5485
0.4554
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.9328
0.0069
0.0475
0.0001
0.0001
0.8975
0.0003
0.0014
0.0011
0.0001
0.0008
0.0001
0.0321
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95%
is significantly different from 0, or
from 1.
confidence level) then intercept
slope is significantly different
-------
34
A.4 LONER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT SEG. 80
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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42
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 80 and 110)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
23.60
14.81
19.96
15.58
18.49
Simulated*
Flow (in)
21.84
14.42
19.54
14.79
17.65
* Observed flow Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, PA
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 80
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SOUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily
0.8823
0.8018
0.7734
0.6750
0.8013
Ave. Monthly
0.9547
0.8343
0.8441
0.7424
0.8651
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.6994
0.5866
0.4031
0.2474
Season 2
0.7595
0.8810
0.7694
0.7436
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.8037
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3
0.9077
0.7427
0.8946
0.8399
Season 4
0.9242
0.8875
0.8976
0.7431
-------
43
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER, PA (Segments 80 and 110)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
0.7292
1.1309
0.9058
1.8850
1.0624
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
52
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-0.3074
0.6005
0.2742
1.1195
0.2890
FLOWS
1.2273
1.8761
0.2803
1.6449
3.5535
2.5275
-0.3771
-0.7641
2.2337
3.1680
-0.8766
-0.2950
5.7463
3.8656
2.3014
-0.7165
Probability
Intercept=0*
1984-87
1.0350
0.0001
0.6840
0.6590
0.8440
0.5158
0.6173
0.2796
0.0009
0.3298
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.4625
0.0599
0.0887
0.0001
0.0088
0.4266
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.2761
0.0001
Slope
0.9311
0.8873
0.9119
0.8133
0.8963
1.0312
0.9401
0.9750
0.8887
0.9725
0.8862
0.8427
0.9690
0.8321
0.6364
0.7847
1.0468
1,0533
0.7864
0.7176
1.0899
1.0118
0.4085
0.6679
0.7524
1.0581
0.8995
Probability
Slope=l*
0.0001
0.0001
0.0007
0.0001
0.0001
0.6702
0.6611
0.8540
0.5165
0.6290
0.2761
0.0025
0.2781
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.4105
0.1738
0.0945
0.0001
0.0102
0.7397
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.3705
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
44
A. 5 SUSQUEHMWA RIVER AT CONOWINOO AT SBG. 140
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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52
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
CONOWINGO RESERVOIR, HD (Segncnts 120 and 140)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
25.01
15.27
20.66
16.16
19.40
Sitnulated+
Flow (in)
24.42
16.16
21.14
16.15
19.47
* Observed flow Susquehanna River at Conowingo, MD
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 140
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.8254
0.7805
0.7465
0.6644
0.7695
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.6282
0.6574
0.6106
0.5232
0.9536
0.9074
0.8797
0.8324
0.9011
Season 2
0.7755
0.7063
0.6984
0.6653
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.7756
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3
0.8919
0.6636
0.4918
0.7914
Season 4
0.8456
0.8300
0.9090
0.5333
-------
53
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
CONOWINOO RESERVOIR, MD (Segments 120 and 140)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept Probability Slope
Intercept=0*
Probability
Slope=l*
DAILY FLOWS
1984 0.8370
1985 1.6082
1986 1.9619
1987 2.1809
1984-87 1.5321
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984 -0.3752
1985 1.4136
1986 1.0503
1987 1.3145
1984-87 0.7686
SEASONAL FLOWS
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
5.2219
1.8330
-0.1594
0.8192
2.6312
3.5744
1.2040
0.8975
1.1810
3.7086
2.4168
1.4017
2.3558
4.7402
2.0184
0.8608
1984-87
1.5377
0.0003
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.6321
0.1396
0.3607
0.3218
0.1063
0.0001
0.0010
0.6308
0.0369
0.0005
0.0001
0.0229
0.0418
0.2316
0.0001
0.0005
0.0001
0.0182
0.0001
0.0001
0.3383
0.0001
0.9225
0.8436
0.8165
0.7899
0.8550
1.0386
0.8648
0.9066
0.8760
0.9305
0.5404
0.8493
1.0126
0.9197
0.7260
0.6813
0.8822
0.9027
0.8883
0.6713
0.7624
0.8583
0.7458
0.5856
0.7997
0.9043
0.8554
0.0006
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.6056
0.1528
0.3992
0.3420
0.1332
0.0001
0.0026
0.6990
0.0503
0.0002
0.0001
0.0439
0.0238
0.2354
0.0001
0.0012
0.0001
0.0086
0.0001
0.0001
0.2779
0.0001
* if probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
A. 6 UPPER POTOMAC RIVER AT SEG. 175
54
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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62
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
UPPER POTOMAC RIVER, VA (Segment 160, 170 and 175)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
18.19
17.30
11.35
13.47
15.08
Simulated*
Flow (in)
20.39
18.22
10.55
12.30
15.37
* Observed flow at Upper Potomac River at Hancock, MD
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 175
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.7730
0.8365
0.8209
0.7796
0.7795
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.8187
0.7581
0.7321
0.2510
0.8706
0.9370
0.9205
0.8884
0.8563
Season 2
0.6982
0.7551
0.8076
0.7649
Season 3
0.7782
0.7502
0.5378
0.8007
Season 4
0.7272
0.8598
0.8214
0.7338
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.7849
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
63
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
UPPER POTOMAC RIVER, VA (Segments 160, 170 and 175)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
-0.5460
0.2712
2.1784
0.5891
1.1655
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
54
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
1984-87
-2.0439
-0.8655
1.9224
-0.2159
0.7716
FLOWS
0.0902
1.5469
1.5492
0.8742
1.3509
1.2084
0.4745
0.8742
-1.5292
1.1960
3.7912
3.2560
4.7998
0.8591
1.9152
0.9764
1.1417
Probability
Intercept-0*
0.0001
0.1346
0.2726
0.0055
0.8180
0.0863
0.9022
0.0046
0.0001
0.0424
0.0116
0.0068
0.1914
0.0067
0.0559
0.0018
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0730
0.0001
0.0191
0.0001
Slope
1.0340
0.9521
0.7319
0.9251
0.8465
.2062
.0901
0.7712
1.0250
0.8973
1.0011
0.8419
0.7466
0.8360
0.8250
0.8592
0.8987
0.8908
1.1504
0.8773
0.4696
0.5859
0.4000
0.9452
0.7133
0.8706
0.8505
Probability
Slope-1*
0.2479
0.0307
0.0001
0.0039
0.0001
0.1913
0.3372
0.0096
0.8324
0.0643
0.9891
0.0088
0.0001
0.0025
0.0059
0.0084
0.0359
0.0043
0.1053
0.0086
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.3289
0.0001
0.0193
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (951 confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
64
A. 7 SHENANDORH RIVER AT SEG. 200
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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72
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
SHENANDOftH RIVER, VA (Segments 190 and 200)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
17.73
12.93
6.88
13.88
12.86
Siraulated+
Flow (in)
19.14
13.43
6.36
12.36
12.82
* Observed flow at Shenandoah River at Millville, WV
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 200
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily
0.7131
0.7684
0.8712
0.7684
0.7770
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.8639
0.5686
0.7897
0.2211
Ave. Monthly
0.8006
0.8786
0.9225
0.8474
0.8382
Season 2
0.7623
0.3898
0.7927
0.7861
Season 3
0.7458
0.6388
0.7469
0.8269
Season 4
0.6329
0.9035
0.8920
0.8535
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.7775
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
73
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
SHENANDOAH RIVER, VA (Segments 190 and 200)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept Probability Slope
probability
lntercept=0*
probability
Slope=l*
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
-0.5403
0.0080
1.1241
0.2182
1984-87
0.6311
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
-2.4452
-0.5971
1.0173
-0.0880
1984-87 0.4057
SEASONAL FLOWS
1984 SI
S2
S3
54
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 Si
S2
S3
54
1987 Si
52
S3
S4
1984-87
2.5127
1.5278
2.4783
1.1735
1.3264
2.1346
-0.5090
-0.7249
-1.7731
1.6731
0.7678
2.3518
4.3141
1.3851
1.4309
-1.1032
0.6359
0.0524
0.9702
0.0001
0.3075
0.0001
0.1664
0.5498
0.0983
0.9349
0.3891
0.0001
0.0007
0,0001
0.0140
0.0853
0.0038
0.3146
0.0141
0.0073
0.0001
0.0126
0.0001
0.0001
0.0008
0.0001
0.0027
0.0001
if probability is less thai,_ -05 (95%
is significantly different from 0, or
from 1.
1.0408
0.9797
0.8523
0.9773
0.9089
,2654
.0646
0.8694
1.0160
0.9392
0.7508
0.8412
0.6186
0.7698
0.8212
0.7413
1.0220
1.0548
1.2125
0.8150
0.8972
0.6521
0.4371
0.8845
0.7885
1.1451
0.9077
0.2386
0.4726
0.0001
0.4206
0.0001
0.2134
0.6171
0.1323
0.9088
0.3226
0.0001
0.0021
0.0001
0.0003
0.0619
0.0104
0.7564
0.1287
0.0122
0.0001
0.0347
0.0001
0.0001
0.0211
0.0001
0.0040
0.0001
confidence level) then intercept
slope is significantly different
-------
74
A.8 LONER POTOMAC RIVER AT SEG. 220
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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82
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
LONER POTOMAC RIVER (Segments 180, 210 and 220)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
20.01
14.28
10.27
14.18
14.69
Simulated+
Flow (in)
20.54
14.26
9.42
12.90
14.28
* Observed flow Potomac River at Chain Bridge near Washington, DC
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 220
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.7788
0.8307
0.8867
0.7918
0.8351
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.8537
0.7789
0.9192
0.2833
0.8343
0.8997
0.9169
0.8323
0.8726
Season 2
0.8664
0.7644
0.8830
0.8539
Season 3
0.8027
0.7991
0.7502
0.8048
Season 4
0.7377
0.8723
0.9072
0.8116
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.8362
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
83
CHESAPEAKE RAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
LONER POTOMAC RIVER (Segments 180, 210 and 220)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept Probability Slope
Intercept^*
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
-0.9002
-0.6661
0.0242
-0.2421
-0.1943
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
52
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-2.7102
-1.7322
-0.2858
-0.8520
-0.6517
FLOWS
2.3936
1.3401
2.1168
0.4304
-0.8234
0.9255
-0.6215
-0.6980
-3.8366
1.2901
-0.9287
1.4661
4.6871
0.9208
1.2004
-1.0848
1984-87
-0.2062
0.0645
0.1416
0.1582
0.7399
0.5556
0.2355
0.0002
0.0005
0.0001
0.3902
0.2467
0.0624
0.1236
0.0781
0.0001
0.0001
0.0379
0.0001
0.0001
0.0220
0.0002
0.0256
0.0511
1.0745
1.0550
0.9879
1.0176
1.0067
,2569
,1749
,0256
,0846
1.0569
0.7921
0.8875
0.7193
0.8943
1.0719
0.9201
1.0309
1.0414
1.3935
0.8876
1.1069
0.7878
0.4814
0.9472
0.8268
1.0921
1.0080
Probability
Slope=l*
0.0136
0.0285
0.5132
0.5218
0.5690
0.1776
0.1889
0.7983
0.5947
0.3441
0.0011
0.0032
0.0001
0.0577
0.3418
0.1460
0.5179
0.3186
0.0001
0.0016
0.0717
0.0001
0.0001
0.2099
0.0001
0.0949
0.4966
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from Or or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
84
A. 9 PATOXENT RIVER AT SEG. 340
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
-------
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92
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
PATUXENT RIVER (Segments 330 and 340)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
17.12
8.41
8.42
11.39
11.34
Simulated*
Flow (in)
14.24
8.91
10.46
13.39
11.75
Observed flow Patuxent River near Bowie, MD
Simulated outflow from RCH 340
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.6492
0.4288
0.6495
0.5508
0.5928
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.3952
0.5542
0.4873
0.3031
0.8939
0.5142
0.8904
0.8091
0.7729
Season 2
0.5548
0.1211
0.4494
0.3932
Season 3
0.2991
0.5029
0.1614
0.5198
Season 4
0.4183
0.1331
0.6112
0.7257
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.5929
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
93
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
PATUXENT RIVER (Segments 330 and 340)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept Probability Slope
lntercept=0*
Probability
Slope=l*
DAILY FLOWS
1984 2.1278
1985 2.4555
1986 2.3991
1987 2.2773
1984-87 2.2545
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984 2.5866
1985 3.2137
1986 2.3438
1987 2.3964
1984-87 2.4907
SEASONAL FLOWS
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
2.9599
1.6789
2.2679
0.4862
1985 SI 0.2887
52 2.8116
S3 1.3192
S4 3.5320
1986 SI 1.4806
S2 1.4599
S3 1.8794
S4 2.6999
1987 SI 1.4845
S2 0.4747
S3 2.1335
54 -1.0336
1984-87 2.2499
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0006
.0001
.0007
0.
0.
0.0001
0.0003
0.0005
0.0001
0.4017
0.6385
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0087
0.0025
0.0011
0.0001
0.0890
0.4994
0.0001
0.0134
0.0001
0.7179
0.5961
1.5854
0.6057
0.6407
0.6490
0.4613
0.6171
0.6032
0.6153
0.6038
0.7946
0.6730
1.1224
1.0203
0.5188
0.9015
0.3635
0.7513
0.7656
0.7164
0.5336
0.6993
0.9480
0.6606
1.2204
0.6414
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0006
0.0035
0.0002
0.0016
0.0001
0.0052
0.0082
0.0008
0.3722
0.8667
0.0017
0.2348
0.0001
0.0170
0.0111
0.0616
0.0001
0.0350
0.6795
0.0001
0.0057
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
94
A.10 RAPPAHfiNNOCK RIVER AT SBG. 230
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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ID;
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
RAPPAHMWOCK RIVER, VA (Segment 230)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
21.77
13.05
7.48
13.43
13.93
Simulated+
Flow (in)
18,42
12.50
6.02
17.36
13.58
Observed flow Rappahannock River near Fredericksburg, VA
Simulated outflow from RCH 230
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.6811
0.7332
0.6921
0.7424
0.7019
0.7890
0.8359
0.8373
0.8402
0.7828
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.7406
0.5151
0.6110
0.2832
Season 2
0.7555
0.6294
0.6680
0.7568
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.7018
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3
0.5430
0.5955
0.3064
0.8395
Season 4
0.1554
0.8977
0.3767
0.7477
-------
103
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
RAPPAHANNOCK RTVER, VA (Segment 230)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
MONTHLY
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
54
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
0.6844
1.1164
0.2971
-0.9712
0.6896
FLOWS
1.3178
1.8608
-0.3061
-1.1152
1.0523
FLOWS
2.5563
0.4016
0.4628
-0.0692
3.2163
1.5471
-4.3846
0.1478
0.7233
0.9839
-0.9241
0.1444
3.1826
0.8683
-2.2039
0.6474
1984-87
0.6826
Probability
Intercept=0*
0.0041
0.0001
0.1593
0.0001
0.0001
0.2243
0.0258
0.7508
0.3458
0.0274
0.0001
0.3991
0.3909
0.0019
0.0001
0.0005
0.0001
0.5497
0.2986
0.0358
0.2950
0.8505
0.0003
0.0323
0.0001
0.0821
0.0001
Slope
0.9369
0.8870
0.9799
1.1097
0.9186
0.8598
0.7959
.0840
.1329
1.
1.
0,8779
0.7162
1.0039
0.9187
1.0918
0.6393
0.8762
1.9083
0.9609
0.9147
0.8947
1.1378
1.0769
0.5697
0.8793
1.2408
0.8858
0.9197
Probability
Slope=l*
0.0610
0.0001
0.5581
0.0015
0.0001
0.3421
0.0971
0.5904
0.4149
0.0799
0.0006
0.9490
0.2969
0.7274
0.0001
0.0876
0.0001
0.2477
0.3771
0.1210
0.3836
0.5937
0.0006
0.0255
0.0001
0.0350
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
104
A.ll MATTAPONI RIVER AT SBG. 240
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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112
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
MATTAPONI RIVER, VA (Segments 235 and 240)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
21.65
11.81
7.57
12.42
13.36
Simulated*
Flow (in)
29.82
15.06
4.62
13.78
13.32
* Observed flow Mattaponi River at Beulah, VA
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 240
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED PLOT
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.7677
0.5081
0.6441
0.7360
0.6791
0.8563
0.5878
0.7825
0.8274
0.7671
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.5034
0.6949
0.5923
0.1132
Season 2
0.8535
0.4329
0.5424
0.7140
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.6760
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3
0.5236
0.4927
0.5715
0.6538
Season 4
0.5843
0.6109
0.3967
0.2467
-------
113
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
MATTAPCNI RIVER, VA (Segments 235 and 240)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept Probability Slope
Inter cept=*0*
,7878
,9394
.3785
.5867
DAILY FLOWS
1984 1.4365
1985 2.3103
1986 1
1987 1
1984-87 1.9482
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984 1
1985 2
1986 0.3374
1987 1.0922
1984-87 1.5800
SEASONAL FLOWS
1984 SI 3.5911
52 0.4733
S3 0.7701
S4 2.4031
1985 SI 1.1104
S2 4.0035
S3 1.6907
54 0.6664
1986 SI 3.8770
52 2.3197
S3 1.9536
54 2.6665
1987 SI 5.2103
S2 2.3758
S3 2.4631
S4 9.7613
1984-87 1.9456
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0684
0.0177
0.7021
0.2578
0.0001
0.0001
0.1233
0.0917
0.0001
0.0236
0.0001
0.0001
0.1718
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.4589
0.0001
0.7947
0.5963
0.7444
0.6983
0.6944
0.8119
0.5684
1.0345
0.8366
0.7635
0.4713
0.9447
0.8970
0.6356
0.8483
0.3580
0.5758
0.8447
0.4301
0.6762
0.5850
0.5967
0.2238
0.6825
0.5291
-0.7768
0.6951
Probability
Slope=l*
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.1040
0.0167
0.8455
0.2953
0.0006
0.0001
0.1886
0.1937
0.0001
0.0444
0.0001
0.0001
0.0287
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.4153
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
A.12 PAMUNKEY RIVER AT SEG. 260
114
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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122
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
PAMUNKEY RIVER, VA (Segments 250 and 260)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
YEAR
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
20.59
13.95
7.80
14.71
14.26
Simulated*
Flow (in)
20.20
15.80
5.64
14.74
14.10
* Observed flow Pamunkey River at Hanover, VA
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 260
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.8367
0.6717
0.6708
0.7335
0.7170
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.6291
0.7721
0.8393
0.0561
0.9471
0.8282
0.8654
0.8414
0.8323
Season 2
0.8001
0.4892
0.7421
0.7344
Season 3
0.7665
0.6723
0.5129
0.7790
Season 4
0.6570
0.8124
0.3301
0.7335
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.7161
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
-------
123
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
PAMUNKEY RIVER, VA (Segments 250 and 260)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Slope
Intercept Probability
lntercept=0*
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
-0.0017
1.4676
0.9514
-0.5828
0.9142
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-0.3076
1.9904
0.2564
-1.2597
0.9149
FLOWS
1.9221
1.2863
-1.2204
0.6350
0.6032
2.4627
0.9603
-1.9164
2.2492
0.8994
-1.1538
2.2261
5.5811
0.9969
-0.5180
-1.4076
1984-87
0.8996
0.0001
0.5898
0.0156
0.7367
0.2777
0.0210
0.0209
0.0004
0.0017
0.1290
0.1951
0.0001
0.0021
0.0001
0.0001
0.0131
0.0489
0.0001
0.0001
0.0162
0.0867
0.0043
0.0001
0.9974
0.7630
0.8952
1.0572
0.8601
1.0449
0.7084
,0205
.1649
0.8721
0.7552
0.8440
1.1724
0.9054
0.9206
0.6730
0.7974
1.1873
0.6963
0.9246
1.2657
0.6847
0.2153
0.8912
1.0216
1.1332
0.8627
Probability
Slope=l*
0.9111
0.0001
0.0016
0.0880
0.0001
0.5784
0.0170
0.8755
0.3268
0.0317
0.0230
0.0008
0.0045
0.1641
0.2313
0.0001
0.0001
0.0021
0.0001
0.1978
0.0210
0.0024
0.0001
0.0602
0.6672
0.0631
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
A.13 JAMES RIVER AT SBG. 280
124
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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132
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC CALIBRATION
JAMES RIVER, VA (Segments 265, 270, 280 and 290)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
20.52
16.33
9.10
19.16
16.28
Simulated*
Flow (in)
20.34
16.82
7.84
21.26
16.57
* Observed flow James River at Cartersville, VA
+ Simulated outflow from RCH 280
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.7889
0.7723
0.7879
0.8344
0.8023
0.8575
0.8400
0.8334
0.8712
0.8408
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.8385
0.7054
0.8705
0.3120
Season 2
0.8088
0.6925
0.6809
0.8392
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.8032
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day 61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3
0.6564
0.8105
0.6089
0,8922
Season 4
0.7388
0.9513
0.9258
0.8326
-------
133
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
JANES RIVER, VA (Segments 265, 270, 280 and 290)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept
DAILY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
MONTHLY
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
SEASONAL
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 51
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
54
0.7749
1.7957
2.0394
0.6966
1.6848
FLOWS
-0.5275
2.0610
2.3106
0.4800
1.8429
FLOWS
1.1942
2.1270
3.3052
1.0623
0.9185
3.5704
1.7116
0.1173
1.1401
2.9523
1.3106
1.6326
4.5913
1.3015
1.8128
0.0623
Probability
lntercept=0*
1984-87
1.6707
0.0001
0.6739
0.0473
0.0187
0.6435
0.0001
0.0709
0.0001
0.0001
0.0174
0.1834
0.0001
0.0001
0.5613
0.0038
0.0001
0.0045
0.0001
0.0001
0.0010
0.0001
0.8694
0.0001
Slope
0.9109
0.8003
0.7826
0.9152
0.8118
1.0524
0.7727
0.7525
0.9371
0.7946
0.8913
0.7984
0.5937
0.8607
0.9015
0.6345
0.7858
0.9673
0.8969
0.7101
0.8874
0.7897
0.4803
0.8889
0.7560
0.9809
0.8140
Probability
Slope=l*
0.0004
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.7076
0.0589
0.0424
0.5929
0.0002
0.1257
0.0001
0.0001
0.0097
0.2029
0.0001
0.0001
0.1534
0.0269
0.0001
0.0880
0.0001
0.0001
0.0088
0.0001
0.6769
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (95% confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
-------
134
A.14 APPOMATTQX RIVER AT SBG. 310
Time Series Plot of Simulated and Observed Daily Flows for 1984-
1987
Time Series Plot of Residual (Simulated Minus Observed) Daily Flows
for 1984-1987
Time Series Plot of Cumulative Simulated and Observed Flows for
1984-1987
Plot of Percent Chance Flow Exceeded vs. Volume of Streamflow
Distribution of Percent Relative Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Distribution of Percent Actual Errors Over Percentile Sample
Population
Regression of Log Transformed Simulated Flow vs. Log Transformed
Observed Flow Scatter Plot
Comparison of Annual Total Observed and Simulated Flow
Average Daily and Monthly R-Squared for 1984-1987
Average Seasonal R-Squared for 1984-1987
Log Transformed Simulated and Observed Flow Regression Slope and
Intercept Statistics
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142
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLQGIC CALIBRATION
APPOMATTOK RIVER, VA (Segments 300 and 310)
COMPARISON OF ANNUAL TOTAL OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOWS
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
Mean
Observed*
Flow (in)
18.16
12.83
7.68
14.55
13.31
Simulated+
Flow (in)
19.16
14.31
7.72
14.31
13.88
Observed flow Appomattox River at Matoaca, VA
Simulated outflow from RCH 310
REGRESSION OF LOG SIMULATED FLOW ON LOG OBSERVED FLOW
DAILY AND MONTHLY R-SQUARED
Year
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87
Ave. Daily Ave. Monthly
0.7530
0.7194
0.6496
0.7581
0.7328
0.8556
0.7722
0.8015
0.8198
0.8153
SEASONAL R-SQUARED
Year Season 1
1984
1985
1986
1987
0.6822
0.7353
0.6589
0.2975
Season 2
0.8600
0.6779
0.6221
0.8043
Overall Seasonal R-squared 0.7294
Season 1 is from Julian day 1 to 60.
Season 2 is from Julian day .61 to 150.
Season 3 is from Julian day 151 to 270.
Season 4 is from Julian day 271 to 365.
Season 3
0.5882
0.6962
0.4332
0.5781
Season 4
0.1578
0.7404
0.6132
0.5074
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143
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION
APPOMATTOX RIVER, VA (Segments 300 and 310)
REGRESSION OF LOG TRANSFORMED SIMULATED AND OBSERVED FLOWS
Intercept
2532
4684
5620
DAILY FLOWS
1984 1.
1985 1,
1986 0,
1987 0.1627
1984-87 0.8305
MONTHLY FLOWS
1984
1985
1986
1987
1984-87 0.7049
SEASONAL FLOWS
1.
1.
.3858
.3586
0.0315
0.2097
1984 SI
S2
S3
S4
1985 SI
S2
S3
S4
1986 SI
S2
S3
S4
1987 SI
S2
S3
S4
-1.6555
0.0547
0.2774
3.5195
-0.7842
2.9011
1.8850
-1.8084
2.0742
0.4470
2.1253
0.5877
3.0756
0.3632
0.3915
0.1379
1984-87
0.8186
Probability
lntercept=0*
0.0001
0.0001
0.0097
0.3953
0.0001
0.0938
0.1701
0.9752
0.8357
0.1040
0.1587
0.8703
0.5546
0.0001
0.2261
0.0001
0.0001
0.0013
0.0001
0.3908
0.0001
0.1918
0.0014
0.3253
0.3265
0.8337
0.0001
Slope
0.8107
0.7605
0.8985
0.9613
0.8616
0.8077
0.7896
0.9867
0.9700
0.8925
1.1683
0.9794
0.9128
0.4731
1.1224
0.5769
0.6467
1.1509
0.7235
0.9632
0.5683
0.8753
.5714
.9609
0.8858
0.9929
0,
0.
0.8639
Probability
Slope=l*
0.0001
0.0001
0.0036
0.1757
0.0001
0.0968
0.1519
0.9333
0.8391
0.0927
0.2412
0.6267
0.2171
0.0001
0.1717
0.0001
0.0001
0.0354
0.0002
0.6463
0.0001
0.0869
0.0005
0.4413
0.1039
0.9444
0.0001
* If probability is less than .05 (951 confidence level) then intercept
is significantly different from 0, or slope is significantly different
from 1.
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