VALIDATION  AND  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF
     THE GAUSSIAN  PLUME MULTIPLE-SOURCE
            URBAN  DIFFUSION MODEL
                FINAL  REPORT
V
J
 GEOMET, Incorporated
          50 MONROE STREET
      ROCKVILLE, MARYLAND  20850

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      GEOMET Report Number EF-60

             November 1971
VALIDATION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF
  THE GAUSSIAN PLUME MULTIPLE-SOURCE
         URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL
             FINAL REPORT



                  for

        Division of Meteorology


    Environmental Protection Agency
National Environmental Research Center
  Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711


                 under

       Contract Number CPA 70-94
                  by

            Robert C. Koch

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                  TABLE   OF   CONTENTS

Section                                                            Page
1.0  INTRODUCTION             .                                        1
2.0  THE GAUSSIAN PLUME TYPE OF URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL                 3
     2.1  The Basic Gaussian Plume Concept                            3
    '2.2  Adaptation of the Basic Model to a Prototype Short-         7
          term Multiple Source Model
     2.3  Long-Term Model                                            10
     2.4  Model Parameters                                           12
3.0  MODEL IMPLEMENTATION                                            41
     3.1  Numerical Evaluation of Concentrations from Area Sources   43
     3.2  Computer Model                                             49
4.0  VALIDATION ANALYSIS                                             54
     4.1  Validation Data and Preprocessing Treatment                55
     4.2  Results of Short-Term (One- and Two-Hour) Validation       62
          Calculations
     4.3  Results of Long-Term Calculations                          95
     4.4  Findings                                                  124
5.0  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS                                           128
     5.1  Elements Investigated                                     129
     5.2  Parameter Ranges and Combinations                         131
     5.3  Methodology                                               139
     5.4  Sensitivity Analysis Results                              140
     5.5  Findings                                                  169
6.0  CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS                                173
     6.1  Conclusions from Validation Analysis                      173
     6.2  Conclusions from Sensitivity Analysis                     174
     6.3  Recommendations                                           175

7.0  REFERENCES                                                     176

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           TABLE   OF   CONTENTS   (Concluded)
Section
Appendix A

Appendix B
Appendix C
Appendix D
Appendix E
Appendix F
A SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS IMPLEMENTATIONS OF THE
GAUSSIAN PLUME TYPE OF URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL
ST. LOUIS DATA
CHICAGO DATA
PROGRAM LISTINGS
SAMPLES OF VALIDATION DATA LISTINGS
SAMPLES OF SENSITIVITY DATA LISTINGS
Page
 A-l

 B-l
 C-l
 D-l
 E-l
 F-l

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                    INDEX   OF   FIGURES
Figure                                                              Page
   1       Pasquill  a  Diffusion  Parameter as  a  Function  of           23
          Distance  Downwind and  Stability Class
   2       Pasquill  a  Diffusion  Parameter as  a  Function  of           24
          Distance  Downwind and  Stability Class
   3       McElroy-Pooler a  Diffusion  Parameter for Different         31
          Stability Classes Based on Bulk Richardson Number
   4       McElroy-Pooler a  Diffusion  Parameter for Different         32
          Stability Classes Based on Bulk Richardson Number
   5       McElroy-Pooler a  Diffusion  Parameter for Different         33
          Stability Classes Based on Turner Stability Index
   6       McElroy-Pooler o  Diffusion  Parameter for Different         34
          Stability Classes Based on Turner Stability Index
   7       Graphical  Model  of Procedure Used to  Interpolate in         39
          Time  Between  Mixing Ceiling  Estimates  Obtained for
          Standard  Radiosonde Observing Times
   8       Comparison of Model  Calculations  Using Narrow  Plume         48
          and Double Integration Approaches Using Portion  of
          St.  Louis Data
   9       Data  Processing for Validation and  Sensitivity Analysis     50
  10       Data  Processing and Storage  Plan  for  Validation             56
          Analysis
  11       Data  Processing for the Diffusion Model                     58
  12       Location  of St.  Louis  Observing Stations  Used  in           64
          Validation Analysis

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              INDEX    OF    FIGURES   (Continued)

Figure                                                             Page
  13      Typical  Example  of Predicted and Observed Concentra-       65
          tions  in the Vicinity  of St. Louis for a Two-Hour
          Period (Average  of 7 a.m.  and 8 a.m., December 7, 1964)
  14      Example  of Overpredictions  in the Vicinity of St. Louis    66
          During a Two-Hour  Period of Stable Conditions (Average
          of 1 a.m.  and  2  a.m.,  December 15, 1964)
  15      Example  of Underprediction  in the Vicinity of St. Louis    67
          During a Two-Hour  Period with Southerly Winds (Average
          of 1 a.m.  and  2  a.m.,  December 12, 1964)
  16      Example  of Good  Correspondence Between Predicted and       68
          Observed Concentrations During a Two-Hour Period
          (Average of 3  p.m. and 4 p.m., December 9, 1964)
  17      Frequency Distributions of  Observed, Predicted and         71
          Observed-Minus-Predicted Two-Hour Concentrations for
          Ten St.  Louis  Stations Combined
  18      Frequency Distributions of  Observed, Predicted and         72
          Observed-Minus-Predicted Two-Hour Concentrations for
          St. Louis Stations 3 and 15
  19      Frequency Distributions of  Observed, Predicted and         73
          Observed-Minus-Predicted Two-Hour Concentrations for
          St. Louis Stations 17  and 23
  20      Frequency Distribution of Observed, Predicted, and         74
          Observed-Minus-Predicted Two-Hour Concentrations for
          St. Louis Stations 4 and 33
  21       Frequency Distribution of Observed, Predicted and          75
          Observed-Minus-Predicted Two-Hour Concentrations for
          St. Louis Stations 10  and 28

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              INDEX   OF   FIGURES    (Continued)

Figure                                                             Page
  22      Frequency Distribution of Observed,  Predicted,  and         76
          Observed-Minus-Predicted  Two-Hour Concentrations for
          St.  Louis Stations  12  and 36
  23      Location  of Chicago TAM Stations  Used  in  Validation        79
          Analysis
  24      Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted  and         82
          Observed-Minus-Predicted  One-Hour Concentrations for
          Eight Chicago Stations Combined
  25      Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted  and         83
          Observed-Minus-Predicted  One-Hour Concentrations for
          Chicago Stations 1  and 2
  26      Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted  and         84
          Observed-Minus-Predicted  One-Hour Concentrations for
          Chicago Stations 3  and 4
  27      Frequency Distribution of Observed,  Predicted and          85
          Observed-Minus-Predicted  One-Hour Concentrations for
          Chicago Stations 5  and 6
  28      Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted  and         86
          Observed-Minus-Predicted  One-Hour Concentrations for
          Chicago Stations 7  and 8
  29      Observed  and Predicted Seasonal Mean Concentrations        97
          for  10 St.  Louis Stations
  30      Regression  Analysis of Seasonal Mean Concentrations        98
          for  10 St.  Louis Stations (Winter 1964-65)
  31      Observed  and Predicted Mean Monthly  Concentrations         99
          for  Eight Chicago Stations

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             INDEX   OF   FIGURES    (Continued)

Figure                                                              Page
  32      Regression Analysis  of Monthly Mean Concentrations          100
          for Eight Chicago Stations  (January 1967)
  33      Frequency Distributions of  Daily Mean Observed and          116
          Predicted Concentrations (from Clarke, 1964)  Using
          Diurnal  Mean Emission Rates
  34      Seasonal  Mean Observed and  Predicted Concentrations         118
          (from Calder, 1970)  Using Seasonal  Mean Emission  Rates
  35      Frequency Distribution of Seasonal  Mean Observed  and        119
          Predicted Concentrations Using Seasonal Mean  Emission
          Rates (Data from Calder, 1970)
  36      Regression of Observed Concentrations on Predicted          120
          Concentrations from  Calder  (1970)
  37      Observed  and Predicted Frequency Distributions of          122
          Early Morning Concentrations  Reported by Miller and
          Holzworth (1967)
  38      Observed  and Predicted Frequency Distributions of          123
          Afternoon Concentrations Reported by Miller and
          Holzworth (1967)
  39      Observed  and Predicted Distributions of.Hourly Con-         125
          centrations for Site 1  in Bremen, Germany, Reported
          by  Fortak (1969)
  40      Observed  and Predicted Frequency Distribution of  Hourly     126
          Concentrations for Site 4 in  Bremen, Germany, Reported
          by  Fortak (1969)
  41      St.  Louis Area -Source Emission Rates, 1 a.m.                136
          December  2, 1964

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             INDEX   OF   FIGURES    (Concluded)

Figure                                                             Page
  42      St.  Louis  Area Source Emission  Rates,  1  p.m.               137
          December 5,  1964
  43      St.  Louis  Area Source Emission  Rates,  7  a.m.               138
          December 3,  1964
  44      Location of  Point  Sources  in  St.  Louis Relative to         144
          Wind Directions and  Receptor  Locations in Sensitivity
          Analysis
  45      Example  of Sensitivity of  Normalized Concentration         149
          Field From a Point Source  to  Changes in  Stability
          and  Mixing Layer Ceiling
  46      Comparison of Distributions of  Two-Hour  Model Pre-         151
          dictions with Observations Using  Two Different
          Systems  for  Assigning Diffusion Parameters and
          St.  Louis  Data Set for Ten Stations Combined

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                     INDEX   OF   TABLES

Table                                                               Page
   1      Fitted Constants for the Pasquill  Diffusion Parameters      25
   2      Meteorological  Stability Classifications for Charac-       27
          terizing the Diffusion Parameters
   3      Net Radiation Index Values                                 27
   4      Pasquill's Stability Categories for Diffusion              29
          Parameters
   5      Fitted Constants for the McElroy-Pooler Diffusion          35
          Parameters Based on a  and Rig Stability Classifi-
          cations
   6      Fitted Constants for the McElroy-Pooler Diffusion          35
          Parameters Based on Turner Stability Classifications
   7      Model  Inputs Required for Each Steady-State Period         51
   8  •    Statistical  Summary of Predicted and Observed              70
          Two-Hour Concentrations for St. Louis Stations
   9      Statistical  Summary of Predicted and Observed              81
          One-Hour Concentrations for Chicago Stations
  10      Observed, Predicted and Observed Minus Predicted           90
          Concentrations  By Wind Speed Class for St.  Louis Data
  11      Observed, Predicted and Observed Minus Predicted           90
          Concentrations  By Wind Speed Class for Chicago  Data
  12      Comparison of Error Distributions  for Two-Hourly           93
          St. Louis and Hourly Chicago Validation Calculations
  13      Mean,.Standard  Deviation and Deciles of Predicted         104
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis
          Station #3

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               INDEX   OF   TABLES    (Continued)

Table                                                              Page
  14      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           105
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis
          Station #4
  15      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           106
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis
          Station #10
  16      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           107
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis
          Station #12
  17      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           108
          Hourly Concentration Over Winter Season  for St. Louis
          Station #15
  18      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           109
          Hourly Concentration Over Winter Season  for St. Louis
          Station #17
  19      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           110
          Hourly Concentration Over Winter Season  for St. Louis
          Station #23
  20      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           111
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis
          Station #28
  21      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           112
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis
          Station #33
  22      Mean, Standard .Deviation and Deciles  of  Predicted           113
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis
          Station #36

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               INDEX   OF   TABLES   (Concluded)

Table                                                               Page
  23      Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted          114
          Hourly Concentrations Over Winter Season for Ten
          St. Louis Stations
  24      Summary of Accuracy of Sampling Intervals for              115
          Estimating Distribution of Predicted Concentrations
          Over a Season
  25      Sensitivity Parameters, Ranges and Selected Values         133
  26      Ranked List of St. Louis Point Source Emission Rates       143
          for 1300 LST, December 5, 1964
  27      Changes in Predicted Concentrations Resulting from         152
          Changes in the Vertical Diffusion Parameter
  28      Model Concentrations With and Without a 30-Minute          155
          Decay Half-Life for Selected Combinations of Model
          Inputs
  29      Model Concentrations as a Function of Wind Speed  With      157
          a 30-Minute Decay Half-Life for Selected Combinations
          of Model Inputs
  30      Model Concentrations as a Function of Mixing Ceiling       159
          With a Wind Speed of 6 m/sec for Selected Combinations
          of Model Inputs
  31      Model Concentrations with Various Degrees of Error in      162
          the Wind Direction Estimate for Selected Combinations
          of Model Inputs

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                            PREFACE

          This final report under Contract Number CPA-70-94, entitled
"Sensitivity Analysis and Evaluation of Multiple-Source Urban Air
Pollution Diffusion Models," represents work originally undertaken for
the National Air Pollution Control  Administration, continued under The
Air Pollution Control Office, and completed under the direction of the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).   The guidance and technical
direction of the government project officer, Mr.  K.  L.  Calder, of the
Division of Meteorology, National  Environmental  Research Center,
Research Triangle Park, EPA, was particularly helpful in the execution
of this study.  Personnel at GEOMET who contributed  significantly to
the work reported here include Mr.  Douglas J. Pelton, Mr. Martin W.  Chandler
and Mr. Isadore Enger.

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                             SUMMARY

          This report, submitted by GEOMET to the National Environmental
Research Center, presents the analysis and results of a program of vali-
dation and sensitivity analysis of the steady-state Gaussian plume type
of urban diffusion model.
          The report develops a careful definition of the fundamental
short-term steady-state model and its various modes of implementation, in
terms of emission and environmental input parameters, and of calculational
modes.  A set of computer programs developed especially for validation and
sensitivity study purposes is described.
          The validation study consists of a variety of comparisons  of short-
term and long-term concentration predictions from the model, with compar-
able measured SOp concentrations covering three months of two-hour values
at ten locations in St. Louis, and one month of one-hour values at eight
locations in Chicago.  The predictions use hourly estimates of meteorolog-
ical and emission parameters.  The atmospheric stability is estimated from
hourly weather observations from an adjacent airport using the McElroy-
Pooler diffusion parameters based on Turner's definitions of stability
categories.  The mixing layer ceiling is  estimated from radiosonde observa-
tions taken twice daily from remote locations (100 to 200 miles away).  The
wind speed and direction are hourly averages of several  continuous records.
The emission rates of the largest sources are identified and located indi-
vidually.  For other sources a mean emission rate per unit area is estimated
for a square gridwork of points with a one-mile spacing between adjacent
points.  Each emission rate is related to hourly estimates of space  heating

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and other operating requirements.  No "calibration" or other adjustment of
the inputs or output concentrations is employed anywhere in the analysis.
          Individual short-term model results (one- to two-hour periods)
show large deviations from the observed concentrations, but the frequency
distributions of calculated short-term concentrations over a month or a
season compare quite well with the comparable frequency distributions of
observed concentrations.  No single factor could be found which accounts
for a significant fraction of the individual deviations.  Predicted long-
term concentrations show consistently good agreement with observations,
as contrasted with the significant overestimation usually found in other
model  implementations.
          A technique is proposed for calculating the long-term estimates
which obviates the need to calculate every short-term concentration in the
period.  A sampling process is used in which a statistically selected set
of as few as five to ten percent of the short-term periods is employed,
and the representativeness of the distribution is maintained.
          In the sensitivity analysis, the insensitivity of the model
concentrations to the parameters of wind speed profile parameter value,
and the distribution of area source emission heights, is demonstrated.
Quantitative description is given of the sensitivity of the model  to the
following parameters:  changes in spatial  variability in emissions,
vertical  diffusion parameter, pollutant half-life, wind speed, mixing
ceiling,  wind direction, and downwind variation in emission rates.
          Finally, recommendations are made on implementation and use of
the model  described herein, and for further study in special  problem areas
highlighted by the study.

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 Section 1.0




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                             Section 1.0
                             INTRODUCTION

          In recent years considerable emphasis has been placed on the
development of meteorological models for analysis and prediction of the
transport and diffusion of pollutants in urban and surrounding suburban
regions.  The resulting models range in complexity from simple, ventilated-
box models to Gaussian puff trajectory models and complex models based
on the eddy diffusivity concept.  The most commonly used meteorological
model is based on the steady-state Gaussian plume concept and lies, in
complexity, somewhere between the simple box model and the Gaussian puff
trajectory model.  Although variations exist in the way this model has
been implemented (for examples, see Appendix A), there is only one basic
Gaussian plume model.  The generality of this model and its application
to urban diffusion analysis has been described by Calder (1970).  This
basic model has been shown to be valid over downwind travel distances
of up to a few hundred kilometers (e.g., see Slade (ed.), 1968 and
Pasquill, 1962).  Since 1 to 50 kilometers is the distance scale of
primary interest in studying urban air pollution problems and since a
great deal of experimental work has been devoted to defining parameters
for the Gaussian plume model, this concept has been the principal  one
used to analyze urban air pollution problems.
          For a review of urban model developments the reader is referred
to papers from a recent symposium on modeling (Stern (ed.), 1970)  and recent
conference papers (e.g., American Meteorological Society, Raleigh, North
Carolina, April  5-9, 1971, and International Union of Air Pollution

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Prevention Associations, Washington, D.C., December 6-11, 1970).   The
Environmental Protection Agency, in its responsibility for directing the
development of new urban diffusion models, needs  information on how
accurately the currently most-used type of model, the "Gaussian plume,"
can provide estimates of air quality.   The validation and sensitivity
analysis in this report provides a quantitative description of the capa-
bilities and limitations inherent in the steady-state Gaussian plume
type of urban diffusion model.
          This report discusses the model  structure, the inputs neces-
sary for its implementation, the computer implementation of the model
for this study, the results of  extensive validation comparisons with
two major sets of urban air pollution  data in both short-term and long-
term applications, the results  of extensive sensitivity analyses, and
conclusions and recommendations.  Appendices contain detailed descrip-
tions of the input data, computer programs, and validation and sensi-
tivity results in the form of computer printouts.

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                   Section 2.0




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                              Section 2.0
            THE GAUSSIAN PLUME TYPE OF URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL

          The Gaussian plume model describes the field of concentrations
of airborne pollutants which undergo negligible gravitational settling
and which originate from a point source.  The concentration field is
defined over a quasi steady-state period during which both the emission
rate and the transport and diffusion properties of the atmosphere remain
fixed.  The following sections describe the basic model concept as well
as its application to multiple sources in an urban environment for both
short- and long-term periods.

2.1  THE BASIC GAUSSIAN PLUME CONCEPT
          Experimental data describing the distribution of concentra-
tion in plumes from point sources show that, although wide variations
occur, these plumes exhibit a strong tendency toward a Gaussian or
normal distribution as a statistical average (Pasquill 1962).  To
describe this distribution, consider a period of time with a constant
point source emission rate of Q (units of mass per unit time) and a
constant (in the horizontal plane) mean wind velocity (with magnitude
u).  In a standard three dimensional coordinate system with the origin
beneath the point source which is at a height h above the ground, the
x axis oriented in the direction of the mean wind, the y axis oriented
normal to the mean wind deviation, and the z axis oriented vertically
upwards, the ground-level concentration x is
                                                                      (1)

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where
                                  /CO
                                    y2 x dy
                                                                   (2)
                                /  x dy
                                — 00
                               /:
a 2 = '»  ^ x dz                         (3)
                                   x dz
                               Jr\
          This relationship satisfies the continuity condition

                      j    (  u x dy dz = Q.                      (4)
                       0   -00
          The parameters a  and a  define the horizontal  and vertical
dimensions, respectively, of the pollutant cloud in a vertical plane
perpendicular to the mean wind velocity.  Estimates of a   and a  as
functions of "alongwind" distance from the source give a  complete
specification of the concentration distribution.
          Certain modifications have been introduced in the above
equation to account for more realistic boundary conditions.  In partic-
ular, one such modification is concerned with the marked  reduction in
vertical diffusion which is caused by a stable layer aloft, in addition
to an impervious ground surface.  Two techniques commonly employed to
account for the effects of these boundaries were recently summarized
by Calder (1970b).  Another simple approximation which avoids the use
of an infinite series in the solution was developed by Pasquill (1962).
At some distance downwind, continued "reflection" of pollutants between

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the effective mixing ceiling and the ground surface will eventually
lead to a uniform vertical distribution.  Further reductions in pollu-
tant concentrations will then be due only to crosswind diffusion.
Pasquill suggested that the uniform vertical distribution will be
approximately achieved at a downwind distance from the source at which
a  is equal to the height of the effective mixing ceiling.  He also
suggested that out to a distance at which o  is equal to half this
ceiling no effect due to "reflection" needs to be considered.  If a
is represented as a simple power law of x, the following equations
follow from these rules:
- 2x,   ,
                          az(x) = L, x >_
wh PV*P
            x, = distance from source at which a (x) = L/2,
            X£ = distance from source at which a (x) = L,
             L = vertical mixing ceiling,
         o  (x) = vertical diffusion parameter,
             x = downwind distance from source, and
          b, q = empirical constants.
                                 -5-
                         oz(x) = bxq, x 1x1                           (6)
                                       ,

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           It may be noted that this approach provides a simple method
 of  using  the a  concept  for  all  travel distances from a source, and
 avoids  the  necessity of  changing the diffusion model formulation
 at  critical distances.   This  approach has been employed in this
 study.
          The continuity condition assumed above may be modified by an
 exponential decay factor to account for various pollutant removal
 processes in the atmosphere.  With a pollutant half-life of t50 and a
 decay time of x/u, equation (1) with the decay factor included becomes:
                      exp
   {y2    0.693x    h2  1
"    2    tcnu  "  &T~2~ f
  2V     50       2  )
where
              x = concentration (mass/unit volume)
              Q = source emission rate (mass/unit time)
              u = mean wind speed (distance/unit time)
             o  = standard deviation of the horizontal displacement
              y   of pollutants in the crosswind direction (distance)
             a  = standard deviation of the vertical displacement of
                  pollutants (distance)
              x = horizontal coordinate in mean wind direction
                  (distance)
              y = horizontal coordinate in crosswind direction
                  (distance)
              z = vertical coordinate (distance)
            tgQ = pollutant half-life (time)
              h = effective height of the source (distance)
          0.693 = natural logarithm of 2

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          The effective height of the source is the sum of the physical
release height and the plume rise due to its upward momentum and thermal
buoyancy.  The mean wind speed employed in the model should account
for the known increase in wind speed with height above the ground.
Some investigators have chosen to define this wind as that occurring
at the physical  stack height of the heated source (e.g., Smith 1968;
Fortak 1969).  Calder (1970) suggests the use of the wind speed at  the
estimated effective source height.  Either of these choices is prefer-
able to the use of an observed surface wind.  In this study the wind
speed at the effective source height is used.
2.2  ADAPTATION OF THE BASIC MODEL TO A PROTOTYPE SHORT-TERM MULTIPLE
     SOURCE MODEL
          The basic Gaussian plume model describes the concentration
field from a single point source during a short-term (i.e., steady-state)
period.  However, in an urban environment it is often necessary to  con-
sider emissions from many small sources (e.g., residential heating  units),
in numbers too large to treat each source individually.  As a practical
matter, individual large sources whose emission rates are significantly
greater than other sources in the general vicinity are treated as point
sources.  The remaining emissions are treated as an area source whose
emission rate and effective height are specified as a function of
horizontal position using appropriate emission inventory techniques.
As recently described by Calder (1970a), it is a simple matter to
adapt the point source model to an area source.  First, consider a
reorientation of the coordinate system so that the origin is at a

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receptor point of interest and the x axis  is  pointed upwind  into  the
mean wind direction.  In this coordinate system,  equation  (9)  gives the
concentration at the receptor from a point source with  horizontal
coordinates (x, y).
          Let q dx dy be the total  amount  of  pollutant  emitted per unit
time in a horizontal element of area dx dy.   Assuming that the total
concentration at a receptor is the sum of  concentration contributions
from all individual  area source elements,  the concentration, x/\«  at the
receptor location due to the area  source is:

                             q(x.  y)     ...J     y2       V
          *A - yo  yyi   ,u(hA)oyixjoz(xj  exp|-  2ay2(x)
                             °'693x  *  dy  dx                       (10)
where
               h. = effective area source emission height.
          q(x, y) = area source emission rate per unit area,
               x, = distance to most upwind portion of emission  area,  and
           y,, y2 = distances to furthermost crosswind portions  of
                    emission area.
The effect of these two types of sources (area and point) are  analyzed
separately and added together to give a resultant concentration.

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          The concentration XD at a receptor point due to N point
sources is given by:
      N
Q1
                  0.693
exp
          iru(h.)oy(x1)oz(x.)     Y 2ay*(x.) " t50u(h.)
                                                    (11)
where
          the subscript i denotes values for the ith point source.
          Equations (10) and (11) give the concentrations from area and
point sources in an urban area during a single quasi steady-state
period.  The total concentration is given as the sum of that from the
area and the point sources.
          The use of the Gaussian plume model to represent concentra-
tions from multiple sources in an urban environment has been studied
by many investigators over the past decade.  These efforts have resulted
in the use of various techniques for simulation of the calculations
required.  A summary of some of these efforts and the results obtained
are given in Appendix A.
          Although the above equations provide the basis for applying
the Gaussian plume model to an urban environment, the practical problem
of defining appropriate parameter values still remains.  Furthermore,
since the model applies to a single steady-state period, it is necessary
to define a period during which the model parameters are essentially
constant.  A steady-state period of one hour was adopted in this study
for two reasons:
          (1)  Meteorological data is generally reported hourly.
          (2)  The parameter values used in the model should be repre-
               sentative of the short travel times which characterize
               the transport and diffusion of emissions from sources
               near a receptor.

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          The problem of defining parameter values is treated in
Section 2.4.

2.3  LONG-TERM MODEL
          The basic model described in Section 2.2 defines the urban
concentration field for a single quasi  steady-state period.   However,
mean concentrations over long-term periods during which both emission
and meteorological conditions are significantly variable are also of
interest.  The short-term model is used to estimate long-term concen-
trations by assuming that the long-term period may be resolved into a
succession of short-term quasi steady-state periods.  This assumption
is basic in the long-term models which have been developed by various
investigators.
          A straightforward application of this assumption was used by
Turner (1964) to compute 24-hour mean concentrations.  He divided
24-hour periods into a succession of 2-hour steady-state periods and
obtained representative mean values of the model inputs for each
2-hour period.  The 24-hour concentrations were then computed as the
mean of the 2-hour period concentrations.
          This approach represents a significant computational burden
when used to obtain annual concentration means due to the large number
of repetitions required. One possible alternative is to divide each model
input into an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive categories and to
determine the joint frequency distribution for the occurrence of all possi-
ble combinations of these categories.  This is practical when the number

-------
of variable inputs is small and the number of categories for each
variable is small.  If one is only interested in the mean concentra-
tion over the period, and not concerned with the distribution of
concentrations which occur, the assumption is commonly made in other
studies that the model emission characteristics are independent of
the meteorological characteristics (wind speed, wind direction and
stability), and that they can be represented by mean input values in
computing a mean concentration.  This approach has been used by Martin
and Tikvart (1968), Calder (1970) and Martin (1970).
          Although relationships between diurnal variations in emis-
sion rates and meteorological characteristics are difficult to estab-
lish with currently available data, there are reasons to believe that
significant correlations exist.  For instance, the marked diurnal vari-
ation in diffusive capability of the atmosphere is correlated with the
variation in emissions associated with the diurnal cycle of business
activity.  Similarly, cold and windy weather, associated with strong
emissions from fuel consumption for space heating, tend to be corre-
lated with northerly wind directions.
          There is a need to collect and study emission-rate data so
that their relationship to meteorological data can be clearly estab-
lished.  Significant efforts of this sort have been reported by
Turner (1968a; 1968b) and Argonne National Laboratory (Croke and Roberts,
1971).  Results from these studies have been utilized in this study to
estimate hourly variations in emission rates using hourly temperature
observations and the hour of the day.

-------
          The evidence of correlation between emission and meteorolog-
ical parameters favors the use of the mean of the hour-to-hour sequence
of concentrations over the mean determined from the joint frequency
distribution of meteorological conditions.
          One method of reducing the calculations required to estimate
long-term mean concentrations is by statistical sampling of the quasi
steady-state periods which make up the long-term period.  Concentra-
tions calculated for the selected periods are averaged to obtain the
long-term mean concentration.  The calculations may also be used to
approximate the frequency distribution of short-term concentrations
over the long-term period, by ordering the concentrations from lowest
to highest value.  This approach was applied in this study with con-
siderable success (see Section 4.3.2).  It is shown that statistical
sampling can reduce the calculations required for seasonal concentra-
tions by 90 percent or more.

2.4  MODEL PARAMETERS
          The model described in Section 2.2 contains eight parameters
which vary in time, space, or both.  A discussion of available data
and methods for assigning values to these parameters follows.  The
eight parameters are:
          •     Pollutant emission rate
          •     Plume rise
          •     Wind speed
          t     Wind direction

-------
          •     Crosswind diffusion parameter
          •     Vertical diffusion parameter
          •     Vertical mixing ceiling
          •     Half-life for the decay of the pollutant
                with travel time.

          In each case covered in our validation study (Section 4.0),
we have selected the parametric option which we felt had the strongest
and most objective support.  The sensitivity analysis (Section 5.0)
examines the impact of making other selections.
2.4.1  Emission Rates
          Source emission rates vary both in time and space over an
urban area.  Spatial and temporal variations must be input for any
pollutant whose field of concentrations is to be represented by the
model.  The level  of detail to which these variations must be known
is of particular concern in this study.  The model, as described
above, treats emission rates as uniformly representative of a general
area (area source) or a particular location (point source).  The defi-
nition of a significantly high emission rate, and the definition of
the amount of change in emission rates over distance and time which
is significant, are repeatedly considered in this study due to their
impact on computational procedures, on model validation analysis, and
on model sensitivity.  These definitions also are important in deter-
mining the amount of effort that should be put into emission inventory
surveys.

-------
          In general, emission rate estimates have been derived from a
variety of information.  Some available information is directly related
to the sources (e.g., hourly megawatt loads on utility generator units,
industrial production rates of emission generating processes, and the
numbers of each type of residential fuel  user in a standard metropolitan
census area), while other information is  related to emission rates by
indirect reasoning (e.g., relationship of fuel consumption rate to
ambient outside air temperature or to industrial plant work schedules).
The following items are commonly used in  estimating emission rates:
          •    City planning and zoning commission land maps
          •    Census bureau dwelling unit fuel  use data
          •    Comoilation of location, size, and nature of manufacturers,
               commercial operators, institutions, and apartments
          t    Emission inventory questionnaires and/or interviews
          •    Market data from fuel associations and fuel distributors
          •    Compiled emission factors  (e.g.,  Ozolins and Smith, 1966)
          •    Production records of electric power companies and indus-
               trial plants.
          An informative guide on problems and suggested solutions for
collecting and analyzing emission inventory data has been written by
Ozolins and Smith (1966).  More detailed  suggestions for analyzing the
diurnal and weekly variations in emissions related to space heating
requirements and to electric power plant  operations have been made by
Turner (1968a;  1968b).   Another approach  to modeling diurnal, weekly,
and seasonal variations in emission rates which  builds on Turner's sug-
gestions has been reoorted by Roberts et  al.  (1970).

-------
          For the Gaussian plume model, as used in this study, it is
considered appropriate to specify (based largely on Turner's and Roberts'
work) the average emission rate for each representative area (e.g., a
square mile) of the urban region for each period of the day (e.g., an
hour).  An individual source with an emission rate significantly higher
than the average rate is specified separately as a point source.
          In order to specify emission rates with high accuracy, it may
be necessary to measure the emission characteristics of every individual
source.  However, there are clearly similarities among sources which
allow them to be treated as neighborhoods, at least.  For example, the
size, spacing, and nature of urban buildings tend to be uniform, as
evidenced by the existence of high-rise apartment neighborhoods, indus-
trial areas, shopping centers, and low-rise housing developments.  Fur-
thermore, the similarity and consistency in people's habits and daily
routines lead to predictability in the pattern of fuel usage by resi-
dential, commercial, or industrial facilities.  Two methods of parameter-
izing the diurnal variations in S02 emissions and relating these variations
to spatial variations have been used in this study:  one for St. Louis
(Turner 1968b), and one for Chicago (Roberts, et al., 1970).  These are
described more fully in Appendices B and C.
          Criteria for setting the level of detail in space and time
which should be reflected in emission data have not yet been defined.
Some suggestions have been made for collecting data and for parameter-
izing emission information in general terms (e.g., a janitor function

-------
to represent diurnal stoking of residential furnaces, and empirical
temperature-oriented corrections to account for commercial and residential
diurnal fuel use).  The question of more firmly settling this problem is
addressed in the sensitivity portion of this study.

2.4.2  Plume Rise
          It is characteristic that emissions from the larger sources
are released from a tall stack in order to reduce their polluting effect
in the immediate vicinity and in the nearby downwind area.  In general,
these emissions must also be hot and fast-moving for the stack to dis-
charge its effluents adequately.  As a result, they leave the stack with
a considerable amount of upward momentum and thermal buoyancy.  The
effluent gases are accelerated upward; however, the upward momentum is
continually diluted due to turbulent mixing with the ambient air.  The
resulting effect is a general leveling off of the effluent plume at
some distance downwind.
          Several  formulas have been developed to predict the plume
rise effect.  A comprehensive review of these formulas and available
plume rise observations by Briggs (1969) resulted in a set of recom-
mended formulas which are simplifications and combinations of previous
findings.  The following recommended formulas are obtained from his
conclusions:
                            Let h = hs + Ah        .                    (12)

-------
where
           h = effective stack height

          h. = physical stack height

          Ah = plume rise.

For all conditions:
                                cO.33yO.67
                       Ah = 1.6 i	*•	, X1
                                                        (13)
For neutral and unstable meteorological conditions:
x]  = 2.16
                                  , h$ <_ 305m
   = 67.3
                                    305m
                        Fo
               Ah = 1.6
           .33X 0.67 C Qj
                                   u 1 + 0.8G-)
                                             xl
                                                        (14)
For stable meteorological conditions
                       xl =
                            2.4 u
                               ,F .0.33
                       Ah = 2.9(-)    , x
                                                                       (15)
In the above equations,
                        F =
                                                        (16)

-------
For standard pressure of one atmosphere,

                         F = 3.7 x 10~5 QH
                         s =
                         S   T
                                                                       (17)
where                                    „    3
           F = buoyancy flux parameter, m /sec ,
          Qu = heat emission due to efflux of stack gasses,  cal/sec,
           g = gravitational acceleration,
           R = gas constant for air,
          c  = specific heat of air at constanct  pressure,
           p = atmospheric pressure,
           T = average absolute temperature of ambient air,  and
           e = average potential temperature of ambient air.
          More detailed treatment of the special  problem of  inversion
penetration by plumes from sources with significant exit velocities  is
also available from Briggs.
          Certain limitations in the use of these formulas were noted by
Briggs.  Due to the lack of adequate data, he suggests that  Equation  14
be applied only to a distance of five times x1 .   In flat and  uniform  ter-
rain, he concludes that observed plume rise may deviate from  Equation 14
by +_ 10 percent; in the vicinity of substantial terrain steps or near
a large body of water, the deviations may be +_ 40 percent.  He also  con-
cludes that x, may vary by +20 percent on the average with corresponding
variations in Ah.  These findings relate to neutral stability conditions.

-------
In unstable conditions, the deviations may be larger and occur somewhat
irregularly; however, the data presented by Briggs are not adequate to
quantify this.  With regard to stable conditions, the data presented by
Briggs suggest that deviations in the nondimensional rise (i.e.,  Ah/
(F/us)0<33) as large as j^0.5 may occur.  When compared with his  recom-
mended mean nondimensional plume rise of 2.9, this deviation shows  that
deviations of +_ 17 percent from Equation 15 have been observed in the
developmental data.
          In view of the dependence on downwind distance in the above
plume rise equations, the following approximations from Briggs, without
this dependence, for neutral and unstable conditions, are also of interest:
For heat emission of 20 megawatts or more,
                                      )0.6?
                   Ah = 1.6 -   - ,  x>.10h                    (18)
For other sources,
                            F0.33(3  jO.67
                   Ah = 1.6	~	,  x >_ 3x1                     (19)
Also, in the absence of wind and in primarily  stable  conditions,
                   Ah = 5.0 £.           .                          (20)

-------
2.4.3  Wind Speed and Direction
          The model hypothesizes the existence of a mean wind speed and
direction; therefore, data must be obtained which are suitable for
defining these means.  In many urban areas, wind monitoring equipment
is installed simultaneously with air quality monitoring equipment.  As
a result it is frequently possible to consider wind observations from
several representative points which can be vectorially averaged to
obtain a mean wind direction and speed.  However, it is often necessary
to use a single airport observation to define the wind direction and
speed.
          Since wind speeds near ground level under certain conditions
show considerable increase with height, it is desirable to account for
the increased transport speed associated with emissions from sources
with large effective heights.  However, it is difficult to decide  on  a
height which is appropriate for defining the transport.
          The wind profile may be represented empirically in the lowest
layers of the atmosphere by a power law (e.g., Munn, 1966).  An exten-
sive summary of such power laws observed on a 125-meter tower at
Brookhaven National Laboratory were reported by DeMarrais (1959).   Let
                                                                       (21)
where
          u(z) = wind speed at height z,
            u, = wind speed at reference height z,,
             a = empirical  wind profile  parameter.

-------
          When vertical wind observations are available from a tower,
the parameter (a), along with values for z,  and u,, may be determined
directly.  When tower data are not available, estimates of (a) must be
deduced indirectly.  DeMarrais (1959) concluded that (a) ranges between
0.1 and 0.3 during the day and between 0.2 and 0.8 at night.  From data
presented by Munn (1966) there is also a clear correlation of (a) with
time of day which is consistent with DeMarrais1 findings.   A recent
study of wind profiles in New York City (Singer et al., 1970) suggests
that the extreme roughness of that city's terrain is so dominating that
for winds up to 900 feet there is very little variation from day to day
or from day to night about a mean value of 0.10 for (a).
          The data used in the validation and sensitivity  studies are
from Chicago and St. Louis.   In the absence  of other information, the
results regarding (a) observed for New York  City are applied to Chicago
for unstable conditions.  For other stability conditions and for St.  Louis
for all stability conditions, values intermediate between  those found in
New York City and the more extensive rural  values are considered appropriate.

2.4.4  Diffusion Parameters
          A large number of empirical  functions have been proposed by
investigators to represent the diffusion parameters a  and a .   In each
set of a  and a  parameters, the values vary with the stability of the
atmospheric boundary layer.  Three sets of diffusion parameter  values
(one from Pasquill, 1962, and two from McElroy and Pooler, 1968) and
the associated meteorological parameters used to characterize stability
are discussed below.

-------
          The most widely used functions for a  and o  are based on
diffusion estimates originally proposed by Pasquill in a form presented
by Gifford (1961).  A convenient graphical presentation of these func-
tions  is given by Turner (1969) who indicates that these values are
representative for a sampling time of minutes to hours and apply strictly
to open, level terrain.  Turner further notes that these values are
probably too small for low-level pollutant release in urban areas.  The
principal basis for this conclusion is shown in a recent study published
by McElroy (1969).  These functions (Pasquill, 1962) are widely employed
values for o  and a  in air pollution analysis.
          The graphical representations of the Pasquill diffusion para-
meters (e.g., Turner, 1970) have been approximated in this study by
power  law functions.  For a  values, a single power law, 0.903, was
                           J
found  to be appropriate over all for the five stability classes commonly
used in urban diffusion analysis.  These classes correspond to categories
A to E in Gifford's presentation.  The fitted curves (indistinguishable
from the original graphs) are shown in Figure 1.  Values for the fitted
constant (a) in the following relationship are listed in Table 1.

                              °y . ax0'903      •                       (22)
          The Pasquill a  parameter curves do not occur as simple power
functions,  but they were closely approximated by the  piecewise power
functions shown in Figure 2.  The selected intervals and the appropriate
fitted constants for each interval are also listed in Table 1.

-------
 i
ro
CO
                1000
                 500
                 100



                  50
g


 >-
b
                  10



                   5
                     0.001
                      0.005  0.01
0.05   0.1            0.5    1



            Distance, km
                                                                                                        5     10
                                                                                                               50    100

-------
Xtf^
        ro
        j^.
         i
                         1000
                          500
                          100
                           50
                           10
       o.ooi
                                                                                              Si
                                                                      s/'
                                                                                                            c/
                                            0.005   0.01
0.05   0.1               0.5  1


             Distance, km
                                                                                         5      10
Legend:



  	 Using Fitted Equations

                 of Table 1


  	Turners (1969) Graphs
                                                              Figure 2.  Pasquill -or Diffusion Parameter as a Function

                                                                    of Distance Downwind and Stability Class

-------
              Table 1. Fitted Constants for the Pasquill Diffusion Parameters
Stability
Class
A
B
C
D
E
Crosswind
Constant ^
a
0.40
0.295
0.20
0.13
0.098
(2)
Constants for Vertical Diffusion Parameter, a
*
-------
environment is that provided by McElroy and Pooler (1968).   Their study
characterized observed values of a  and o  from continuous  tracer emis-
sions in the city of St. Louis according to several  systems of meteoro-
                                             «i
logical stability classification.  The question of the proper system of
stability classification has not been satisfactorily resolved; however,
certain observations regarding this problem may be noted.
          Meteorological stability measures are used to stratify observed
diffusion parameters (a  and a ) and, in model  applications, to differ-
entiate steady states.  These measures have varied from the subjective
estimates of insolation (used by Pasquill  to characterize daytime sta-
bility) to detailed measures of turbulence (such as  the wind speed trace
used by Singer and Smith, or the standard deviation  in wind direction
used by Hay and Pasquill (1957), Cramer (1964), and  Islitzer (1961)). The
validity and usefulness of these different measures  are matters requir-
ing further study.  A completely objective system of meteorological
stability classifications which is widely employed with the classes  of
diffusion parameters defined by Pasquill  was suggested by Turner (1964).
This system is described in Tables 2 and 3 and  has been used in this

-------
Table 2.  Meteorological Stability Classifications for Characterizing the Diffusion Parameters

                                      ( a  and a  )
                                        Y     x
Wind
Speed
(Knots)
0, 1
2,3
4,5
6
7
8, 9
10
11
>12
Stability Class for Indicated Net Radiation Index *
4
A
A
A
B
6
B
C
C
C
3
A
B
B
B
B
C
C
C
D
2
B
B
C
C
C
C
D
D
D
1
C
C
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
0
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
-1
E
E
E
E
D
D
D
D
D
-2
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
D
D
*Net Radiation Index Values are Given in Table 3.
                          Table 3.  Net Radiation Index Values
Time
of
Day
Night
Night
Night
Night
Day
Day
Day
Day
Day
Day
Total
Cloud
Amount (t)
t<0.4
0.47,000
c>16,000
c<7,000
16,000>c<7,000
c<7,000
16,000>c>7,000
c>16,000
Net Radiation Index for
Indicated Solar Altitude (a)
a<15°
-2
-1
0
-1
1
1
1
0
1
1
15°60°
—
—
—
—
4
2
3
0
2
3

-------
study.  The solar altitude (e.g., Sutton, 1953) required in this system
may be computed by the following formula (expressed in arctan rather
than arcsin form):
                           sin  sin 6 + cos  cos 6 cos
          o = arctan
                                  sin 6 + cos  cos 6
                 6 - 23.
where
          a = solar altitude
          6 = solar declination
          m = month of year
          d = day of month
          h = hour of day
          <|> = latitude.
          Recently a new objective system for classifying the Pasquill
stability categories was suggested by Ludwig et al.  (1970).  This
scheme relates more directly to Pasquill's initial guidelines by using
the following definitions of insolation (I) classes:
            Slight 5 I < 0.33
          Moderate = 0.33 < I < 0.67
            Strong = 0.67 < I
where
                 I = (1-0.5N) Sin a
                 N = cloud cover (fraction of sky obscured)
                 a = solar altitude
          Cloud layers reported as thin are ignored  in determining N.
With these definitions, Pasquill's original table, shown in Table 4,

-------
may be used.  The  table shown includes the original  Pasquill  categories
except that his  category F, and his two blank categories,  have been
designated as  E, (following Turner's, 1964 concept)  since moderately
stable conditions  rarely, if ever, exist  in  the  urban environment.
Also, the nighttime cloud cover categories have  been modified slightly
to accommodate  cloud cover reports in tenths rather than eighths and to
make them exhaustive as well as mutually  exclusive.   It may be noted
that Pasquill  recommended taking the average of  two categories where
dual classes are designated.
             Table 4.  Pasquill1 s Stability Categories for Diffusion Parameters
Surface Wind
Speed at 10m
(m/sec. )
<2
2 to<3
3 to<5
5 to 6
>6
Daytime Insolation
Strong
A
A-B<3)
B
C
C
Moderate
A-B(3)
B
B-C(3)
C-D<3)
D
Slight(2)
B
C
C
D
D
Night Cloud Cover ( 1J
Thinly Overcast or
>0.50paque(2>
E
E
D
D
D

-------
 The  curves have been extrapolated from 600 to 10 meters as shown in
 Figures  3 through 6.  The fitted equations have the forms,
                               °y =
                                                                       (24)
The values obtained for a, b, p, and q for two meteorological  stability
classes are given in Tables 5 and 6.
          The values in Table 5 are classified in terms of (
-------



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500
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-------
        c*»
        PO
                        10,000





                         5,000
                         1,000
                           500
                  •a         100
                  Q
                            50
                             10
                               0.1
                                                                     y

0.5     1              5      10              50    100            500   1,000          5,000 10,000
                                                                                   O , meters
A
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-------


























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100 500 1,000 5,000 10,
                                                                                    , meters

-------
 I
CO
ft)

g

 «t
a)
O
c
rt
                 10,000




                  5,000
                  1,000
                    500
                    100
                     50
                     10
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                                                                                (f
                                                                                                     $/-
                                                                                                   •S!
                                                                                                            &\
0.5     1
                                                                      10
                                                                           50   100
500  1,000
                                                                             O, meters
5,000 10,000

-------
          Table 5.  Fitted Constants for the McElroy-Pooler Diffusion Parameters
                     Based on OQ( ^ and Ri ( ) Stability Classifications
Stability Category
Index
1
.2
3
4
5
ae
(Degrees)
>29.5
23 to 29.5
<23
-
-
RiB
<-0.01
<-0.01
<-0.01
-0.01 to 0.01
>0.01
Crosswind
Constants^
a
1.49
1.40
1.26
1.14
0.945
P
0.761
0.719
0.712
0.698
0.648
Constants for Vertical Diffusion Parameter(4)
xlxl
b
0.118
0.118
0.115
0.110
0.478
q
1.02
1.02
1.00
0.934
0.907
xl
(Meters)
300
300
300
600
600
X>Xj
b
0. 00724
0. 00724
0.0581
0.110
0.478
q
1.51
1.51
1.12
0.934
0.655
(1)  Standard Deviation of Horizontal Wind Direction.
(2)  Lettau's (1957) Bulk Richardson Number.
(3)  "y — axP, Where x is Downwind Distance from Source; a  and x are in Meters.
(4)  "i - bxlj a  and x are in Meters.
           Table 6.  Fitted Constants for the McElroy-Pooler Diffusion Parameters
                         Based on Turner Stability Classifications
Stability
Index
A
B
C
D
E
Crosswind
Constants U)
a
-
1.42
1.26
1.13
0.992
P
-(3)
0.745
0.730
0.710
0.650
Constants for Vertical Diffusion Parameter (2)
x<600
b
-
0. 0926
0.0891
0.0835
0.0777
q
-
1.18
1.11
1.08
0. 955.
x>600
b
-
0.0720
0.169
1.07
1.01
q
-
1.22
1.01
0.682
0.554
            P
 (1) a  — ax , Where x is Downwind Distance from Source; a  and x are in Meters.
 (2) ° z ~ t>xP; 
-------
          The atmospheric stability categories defined by 
-------
delineation between the smoke-filled layer and cleaner air aloft over
many cities in the early morning.  Much higher ceilings typical of
afternoon hours are clearly visible to air travelers in climbing to or
descending from cruising altitudes.  The ceiling may vary from 100
meters at night to over 1500 meters during the day.   Hourly estimates
of the ceiling are required for use in the model.
          Unfortunately, this mixing ceiling is not always visibly dis-
cernible and no routine systems for taking vertical  soundings of pollu-
tant materials are in operation.  Therefore, the ceiling is generally
inferred from temperature soundings which are routinely observed twice
daily at certain airports by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA).  These observing locations are separated by about
200 km on the average and are usually located outside the urban area.
The mixing layer is generally characterized by a near adiabatic lapse
rate extending from the ground to some altitude at which a deep,
(several kilometers) more stable lapse rate exists.   However, the
vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere is frequently not
this well defined.  As a result, considerable judgment may be required
to define where, in a vertical temperature profile,  an effective mixing
ceiling exists.  Unfortunately very little data have been collected on
the relationship between vertical pollution and temperature profiles
which could be used to develop and substantiate rules for defining the
mixing ceiling over an urban region.
          The procedure which is generally used to define the mixing
ceiling is the following:  Determine the general rural vertical

-------
temperature profile from the nearest appropriate (same air mass) radio-
sonde, or by interpolation of two or more nearby radiosondes.  Estimate
minimum morning and maximum afternoon air temperatures which are
representative of the urban area.  The afternoon temperature may be
obtained directly from airport observations or other available data.
In most cases the morning urban temperature will exceed the rural
temperature.  The following equation (Ludwig et a!., 1970) may be used
to estimate morning urban temperatures (T ) from rural temperatures (T )
using the urban population * and the radiosonde temperature lapse rate
(dT/dp) as parameters:

                 Tu = Tr + $°'25(0.0633 - 0.298 £)                    (26)

Construct adiabatic temperature profiles from the urban temperatures
which intersect the rural temperature profile.  The height of these
intersections are assumed to be the minimum and maximum mixing ceilings.
A method of interpolating between these values to give hourly estimates
is to:

          1.   Use the morning minimum from midnight to 6 a.m.
          2.   Linearly interpolate between the minimum and the. maximum
between 6 a.m.  and 2 p.m.
          3.   Use the afternoon maximum between 2 p.m. and midnight.

This pattern of diurnal variations is illustrated in Figure 7.
          Limited simultaneous observations of temperature and SOg or
particle concentration profiles reported by Davidson (1967),

-------
         t
                                                                            t
    ooz*
.g Sounding-^
«> Ceiling  I

-------
 2.4.6   Pollutant  Decay
           Atmosphere  removal  processes are approximated in the model by
 an  exponential  decay  of  the pollutant with travel time.  The removal
 processes  are  parameterized by  specifying a pollutant half-life.  How-
 ever,  due  to the  limted  data  and  the wide variety of removal processes
 which  may  be operating,  it is difficult  to define an appropriate half-
 life.
           Information regarding SOp removal processes consists of
.atmospheric and laboratory experiments (reviewed by Urone and Schroeder,
 1969),  comparisons of S02 concentrations with other materials in the
 atmosphere (e.g., Weber, 1970;  1970a and Manowitz et al., 1970), and
 less direct comparisons  of observed S02  concentrations and other tracer
 materials  with model  computations.
           The  general conclusion  drawn from this evidence in that the
 SOp half-life  under various defined atmospheric conditions can range
 from ten's of  minutes to several  days, with several hours being a pre-
 ferred  range under many  urban conditions (a nominal value of four hours
 has been used  in many previous  studies).
           Our  validation study which used S02 data for validation pur-
 poses assumed  negligible decay.   In the  sensitivity analysis, the impact
 of  various decay  levels  is assessed.

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    Section 3.0




-------
                             Section 3.0
                         MODEL IMPLEMENTATION

          In this study a computer program was developed for the
Gaussian plume, multiple-source urban diffusion model described in
Section 2.0.  The basic objective of this work was to find algorithms
which are numerically accurate, computationally efficient, and appro-
priate to the spatial and temporal variations in inputs and outputs
which were to be considered in the validation and sensitivity analyses.
Particular attention was given to numerical integration algorithms and
to the selection of appropriate parameter values for these algorithms.
          The basic theory and format structure of the model  employed
were presented in the preceding sections.  In this presentation, it was
noted that emission inventory data for S02 sources are typically of two
types:  one includes significant point sources such as power plant stacks,
large industrial plants, and large commercial and municipal emitters;
the other is related to the large number of less intense but widespread
emitters such as residential homes, high-rise apartments, and various
smaller commercial  and industrial establishments.  These are treated as
area sources with one of three effective heights.  The concentration at
any receptor point may be estimated by computing the contribution from
each of these two types of sources separately and adding the results.
The equations used to perform these calculations are:

                             X = xp + XA                           (27)

-------
               .   ?i        ,cj      y,      v     °-693,xM(:3)
             >,)  °y
-------
(i.e., azimuth in degrees measured clockwise from north) the wind-
oriented coordinates (x.,y.) are

                x,- = (?•; — SD) sin e + (n,- - %) cos e             (3°)
                 1      I    K            IK
                y.; = (n.j - nR) sin e - (5. - £R) cos e             (31)

When Equation 29 is applied to the particular receptor UR>np), numer-
ical integration techniques require that the integrand be known for
certain values of the integration variables x and y, which are wind-
oriented coordinates.  This requires that q(x,y,h.) be known for
specified (x,y).  Since q will be recorded in terms of the fixed
coordinates U,n) the following transformations are required to
determine the £,n coordinates which correspond to selected (x,y)
values.

                      C = 5R + x sin e - y cos e                   (32)

                      n = nR + x cos e + y sin e                   (33)

3.1  NUMERICAL EVALUATION OF CONCENTRATIONS FROM AREA SOURCES
          Numerical integration processes required to evaluate Equa-
tion 29 affect both the accuracy achieved and the cost expended in
computation time.  Therefore, the following three approaches in
decreasing order of computational detail  were considered for eval-
uating the double integral in Equation 29.

          •     Numerical  evaluation of the double integral
          •     Use of the "virtual" point source concept

-------
          •     Use of the "narrow plume" assumption to reduce the
                double integral to a single integral.

          The first approach is a straightforward evaluation of the
double integral by numerical techniques.  One method of doing this is to
divide the area source into small subdivisions A£ by An.  If the inte-
grand (I--I.) in Equation 29 is evaluated at the center of each sub-
division (i.e.> fixed-axis oriented coordinates 5. ,n .)» the double
                                                  '   J
integral may be approximated by a double summation.
                              3
                        XA «  z  A? An I z L,k                    (34)
                         A   1=1       j k  1Jk

This is mathematically equivalent to replacing each  subdivision of the
area source by a point source with emission rate qU.,n..,h.) AC An
at each emission height h..  In an application of this  approach,
Fortak (1970) found that a suitable size for the subdivisions which
would give a satisfactory approximation to the integral for a wide
range of wind speeds and stability categories was 50 meters by 50 meters.
In this study, the double integration has been carried  out by repeated
application of the trapezoid rule.
          In the second approach to numerical integration, the initial
vertical and horizontal distributions of concentration  from pollutants
emitted within a subdivision of the area source are  approximated by a
bivariate normal function.  The double integration in Equation 29 is
replaced by a summation of double integrals over each subdivision.
Let a   be the standard deviation of the initial horizontal distribu-
tion of concentration in a subdivision and a   be the standard deviation

-------
of the initial vertical distribution of concentration in a subdivision.
In terms of the diffusion parameter functions, a (x) and  a (x) (e.g.,
see Figures 5 and 6), there is a downwind travel distance x  which
                                                           \r
corresponds to a   and a distance x  which corresponds to o  .   This
means that a point source located a distance x  upwind of the center of
the subdivision will produce the approximate horizontal  crosswind distri
bution of initial concentrations from emissions within the subdivision
area  .  A point source located a distance x  upwind will produce the
approximate vertical distribution.   These "virtual" distances are used
in the point source diffusion Equation 9 to define subsequent changes in
the initial distribution of concentration.  It is only necessary to
replace cr (x) and GZ(X) by a (x + x ) and az(x + x ) and ta let Q be the
total  emission rate from the subdivision of the area source.   Using
this concept, the double integration over a subdivision  of the  area
source is approximated by a "virtual point source," and  the double
integral of Equation 29 is replaced by the summation of  the concentra-
tions from all subdivisons.
                                                                     (35)
                      i     ^   j^-sj      y   j  .y»j     w>u     • f
where
           J  =  number  of  area subdivisions
     q.(h.)  =  emission rate per unit  area for jth  subdivision at
       J   ""     height  h.
          A.  =  area  of jth  subdivision
           J
          x.  =  alongwind  distance  from the receptor to  the  center
           J    of the  jth subdivision

-------
          y. = crosswind distance from the receptor to the center
           J   of the jth subdivision
        x   . = "horizontal" virtual distance, i.e., a (x  .) = (a  ) .
                                                     y  y»j       ys j
      (a  ). = initial horizontal distribution of concentration from
        y  J   emissions in the jth subdivision
        x  .  = "vertical" virtual distance, i.e., a (x  .) = (a  ).
         z,j                                        z  Z»J       zs J
      (a  ) • = initial vertical distribution of concentration from

               emissions in the jth subdivision.
          This approach has an advantage over the first approach in
that larger subdivisions of the area source may be used to approximate
the integral.  Examples of the use of this approach include Croke and
Roberts (1971) and Milford, et al. (1970).  If the source emissions are
known in detail, the parameters a   and a   may be estimated by stan-
dard statistical techniques.  Where detailed information is not avail-
able, it is necessary to judiciously approximate the parameters.
          In the third approach, following a development proposed by
Calder (1969), the assumption is made that spatial distances between
variations in the area-source emission rate are large compared to the
horizontal diffusion parameter a .  The quantity q(x,y,h.) is constant
over the range of y for which the integrand in Equation 29 is signifi-
cantly greater than zero.  The integration limits with respect to y
may be extended to infinity since q(x,y,h.) is zero outside the area
source.  Let
                            q(x,y,h.)
                                                                   (36>

-------
Equation 29 may be written as follows
         \/2~ I  (*1  q'(x'
        -VM-I'O   u az
Under the narrow plume assumption, we approximate q'(x,h.) by q(x,o,h.)-
This approach represents the greatest potential saving in computational
effort if it can be shown to yield results sufficiently close to the
double integration of the first approach.
          Detailed specifications for the computational procedures used
                   f
to implement the first and third approaches are listed in Appendix D.
These methods were compared using model inputs generated from 10 hours
of St. Louis Data, consisting of every 6th hour during a 60-hour period
from December 1 to 4, 1964.  The same set of input values was
used for each method.  Figure 8, a comparison of the concentrations
predicted at 40 points by each method for one selected hour, shows the
two sets of predicted concentrations tightly clustered about the equality
line.  The comparisons for the other hours give similar results.
          Using the narrow plume approach, the computation time required
on an IBM 360/65 system to compute concentrations at 10 receptor loca-
tions for 1  hour (i.e., one steady-state period with a 30 km by 40 km
area source and 51 point sources) is about 1 second or 0.1 second per
receptor.  Using repeated application of the trapezoid rule to evaluate
the double integral, the computation time is about three times as long.
A large portion of the calculations required in these two methods con-
sists of evaluating exponential factors which are saved and used repeti-
tively in computing the terms which must be summed in the two methods.

-------
      "
    10
      -4

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10
                                  Concentration by Double Integration, /ig/m
    Figure 8.  Comparison of Model Calculations Using Narrow Plume and Double Integration Approaches


                                Using Portion of St. Louis Data (See Text)

-------
The time for computing the exponential factors is about doubled in the
first approach compared to the third approach.  The first approach
requires about six times more time to perform the remaining computa-
tions involving multiplication and summation, and approximately a
67 percent reduction in computation costs is achieved by usinq the
third approach.
          As a result of the adequacy comparisons described above
between the first and third approaches, and the demonstrated economy
in computer time, all computations of validity and sensitivity
described in subsequent sections were conducted using the third
approach, involving the "narrow plume" assumption.

3.2  COMPUTER MODEL
          Having defined the mathematical structure of the diffusion
model and having determined how to efficiently handle the numerical
integration for area sources, it is appropriate to describe the formal
organization of inputs, outputs, and data processing which has been
adopted for the computer program.  The relationship of the diffusion
model calculations to the general data processing requirements of this
study is illustrated in Figure 9.  This diagram shows that there are
two basic analytic frameworks in which the model  is to be used:  one
is concerned with validation, and the other with  sensitivity.
          The model inputs which are required for each steady-state
period are shown in Table 7.  These input values  may be determined by

-------
                                        c
                        EMISSION\ /METEOROLOGICAL^
                         DATA   } V      DATA      }
                C
SENSITIVITY
  REQUEST
                C
VALIDATION
  REQUEST
  MODEL
COMPONENT
 SELECTION
                                         URBAN MODEL
                                    FRAMEWORK PROCESSING

                                              I
                                             URBAN
                                           POLLUTION
                                           PREDICTION
                                               T
                                               m
                                              1
                       SENSITIVITY
                                           STORE AND
                                            COMPARE

                                              1
                                           SENSITIVITY
                                             RESULTS

                                                   VALIDATION
(
                                                       AIR QUALITY
                                                          DATA
                                                                          COMPARE

                                                                            I
                                                                        VALIDATION
                                                                          RESULTS
                                    Figure 9. Data Processing for Validation and Sensitivity Analysis

-------
Table 7.  Model Inputs Required for Each Steady-State Period
Model Inputs
A.


B.
C.






D.
E.





F.
Output R equest
1. Number of Receptor Locations
2. Receptor Coordinates
a. North-South
b. East-West
Diffusion Parameter Option
Area Source Emission Data
1. Rectangular Grid Dimensions
a. Number of North-South Grid
Squares
b. Number of East-West Grid
Squares
c. Number of Emission Heights
d. Horizontal Grid Square
Dimension
e. Emission Heights
2. Emission Rates
Point Source Emission Data
1. Number of Point Sources
2. North-South Coordinate
3. East-West Coordinate
4. Effective Height
5. Emission Rate
Meteorological Data
1. Wind Speed Profile
a. Reference Height
b. Reference Speed
c. Power Exponent
2. Wind Direction
3. Stability Index
4. Mixing Ceiling
Pollutant Decay Half-Life
Symbol

Nr
V3 = l,-..Nr
I


I
J
K
A
r^, K=1,...K
V5i=l,...I;j = l,...J;k = lJ...K

N
P
{.; i- 1, ...Np
h.; i = 1, ...N
1 P
i' ' " ' P

Zl
Ul
P
e
s
L
*50

-------
a number of computationally trivial  preprocessing calculations  which
enable one to derive a set of values representative of a one-hour steady-
state period.  The preprocessing procedures which were selected for the
validation analysis are discussed in the next section.  The objective
was to develop a procedure for defining model inputs which  are  as
representative as possible of hour-to-hour variations in the character-
istics of the urban environment.  In all cases of input definition,
determination of the best procedure  to be used was made as  objectively
as possible on physical grounds, without regard to whether  the  determi-
nation would improve or worsen the validation results.  It  is empha-
sized that in no case was any empirical fitting, adjustment, or
"calibration" employed.  Any application of the model requires  that a
preprocessing program be used to convert the type and forms of  available
data to the inputs required by the model.
          Table 7 shows that the output request consists of the number
of locations for which concentrations are to be computed and their
coordinates.  The diffusion parameter option indicates which of three
sets of diffusion parameter functions, which specifies a and a  as a
function of distance from the source, will  be used.  The options include
the three sets discussed in Section  2.4.4, namely, the Pasquill  para-
meters, the McElroy-Pooler parameters based on bulk Richardson  number
and a., and the McElroy-Pooler parameters based on the Turner stability
     o
criteria.
          The area source emission data which are input to  the  model
include the three emission rate array dimensions (I, J and  K),  the

-------
grid square dimension, the effective source heights,  and the array
of emission rates.  The point source emission data include the  number
of point sources and, for each source, its coordinates,  its effective
height (the sum of its physical height and the plume  rise), and its
emission rate.
          The meteorological  data input to the model  include the wind
speed profile parameters (reference wind speed, reference height and
power law exponent), the wind direction, the stability index value which
determines which power functions to use in the selected  system  of
diffusion parameters, and the mixing ceiling height.
          The final  input is  the pollutant half-life  (t^) due  to
atmospheric removal  processes.
          Listings of the computer programs (one for  numerical  integra-
tion of the double integral  and one for the narrow plume approach) are
given in Appendix D.  It should be noted that these programs are
not operational entities which can be efficiently utilized outside
the scope of this study, because these programs have  been designed
to interface with specific input and output requirements for this study.
However, the programs are highly modular in structure and contain many
FORTRAN coded subroutines directly applicable to any  use of the Gaussian
plume type of urban  diffusion model.  These subroutines  can be  evolved
into more operational programs:  New programs could be specifically
designed from an input-output point of view to support air quality
management requirements such  as evaluation of implementation plans,
support of land use  studies,  and direct aid in deciding  when to
implement control measures.


-------
     Section 4.0
VALIDATION ANALYSIS

-------
                             Section 4.0
                         VALIDATION ANALYSIS

          The objective of the validation study was to evaluate criti-
cally the predictive accuracy of the urban diffusion model  based on
the Gaussian plume concept.  The results tend to emphasize  the general
capabilities and limitations inherent in the use of the basic steady-
state plume equation to simulate urban SOp concentrations in detail.
The validation study has been based on a comparison between model  pre-
dictions and urban air quality measurements of the stable pollutant SOp.
Validation data were obtained from two urban areas (St. Louis and Chicago)
for which reasonably detailed emission inventory and meteorological obser-
vations were available.  These two sites were selected because the avail-
able data were known to be reasonably free of errors and well organized.
The St. Louis data included a three-month data collection which was part
of the U.S. Public Health Service's air quality study in that area.  The
Chicago data consisted of a one-month set of data collected by Argonne
National Laboratory.  Additional Chicago data for a one-year period were
reviewed but not used because of irregularities in the data and large
blocks of missing data.  These data collections include sufficient air
quality sampling locations (10 in St. Louis and 8 in Chicago) and the
most detailed source inventory information known to be available (sources
summarized by square mile areas with the 50 or so largest sources iden-
tified in greater detail).
          The validation analysis involves study of both short-term
concentrations for 1 or 2 hours and long-term concentrations for 1 month

-------
and 3 months; these have been evaluated separately for each location
(Sections 4.2 and 4.3).  The analysis was carried out for individual
observing stations, eight in Chicago, and 10 in St. Louis, for which
short-term (1 or 2 hour) average concentrations were observed.  Stan-
dard statistics have been generated regarding predicted and observed
values including mean error, standard deviations (or root-mean-square
errors), and empirical frequency distribution of errors for each observ-
ing station.  The same statistics have been generated for the combined
set of all values for a given city.  Statistics have also been generated
to compare predicted and observed long-term mean concentrations.  The
evaluation is based on the ability of the model to predict values from
observed best estimates of the model  inputs.
          The validation is based on  the use of the "narrow plume"
assumption to compute concentrations  from area sources (Equation 37)
and the McElroy-Pooler diffusion parameters based on Turner's defini-
tions of stability categories to represent a  and o .
4.1  VALIDATION DATA AND PREPROCESSING TREATMENT
          Special data processing procedures  were used in the valida-
tion study to determine hourly values of model inputs from available
data for each location.  Conceptually, the processing follows the scheme
illustrated by Figure 10.  The raw data file consists of meteorological
data, air quality data, and emission  data.  The meteorological data and
air quality data are time-oriented.  Information is available for each
hour of the validation period.  The emission  data are source-oriented.
Information is available for each point source and each square mile

-------
                             RAW
                          DATA FILE
                c
    PREPROCESSOR PROGRAM
                             MODEL
                           INPUT FILE
                   C
       MODEL PROGRAM
                            MODEL
                         OUTPUT FILE
         C
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PROGRAM
                              I
                           RESULTS
Figure 10.  Data Processing and Storage Plan for Validation Analysis

-------
of  the city area.  The emission data is used in conjunction with meteoro-
logical data and time considerations (e.g., hour of the day, day of the
week, and month of the year) to estimate hourly emission rates.  The
preprocessing program consists of a set of algorithms for deriving hourly
model input values from the raw data files.  The logic of the model pro-
gram as it operates in the context of the validation analysis is illus-
trated in Figure 11.  The output file created by the model program is
analyzed by statistical routines to obtain the validation results.
          The model inputs required for each steady-state period are
listed in Table 7 in Section 3.2.  The algorithms are discussed briefly
below.  A complete description of the emission, meteorological, and air
quality data and the algorithms used to compute emission rates is given
in Appendices B and C for St. Louis and Chicago, respectively.  The
objective has been to develop a procedure for defining model inputs
which are as representative as possible of hour-to-hour variations in
the characteristics of the urban environment.  In all cases of input
definition, determination of the best procedure to be used was made as
objectively as possible on physical grounds, without regard to whether
the determination would improve or worsen the validation results; in
no case was any empirical fitting, adjustment, or "calibration" employed.
Applications of the model to new data sources may require that a new
preprocessing program be developed which will convert the type and
forms of available data to the inputs required by the model.
          Emission rates for point sources were estimated by one or
more of three procedures'.  For most large utility plants, emissions
were estimated on the basis of engineering information which related

-------
                                                  Set Control Parameters
                                                           i
                                                 Print Control Parameters
    Are
All Data Sets
 Processed?
                                                       Get Data Set
                                                      Set Coordinate
                                                Transformation Parameters
                                                          I
                                                    Initialize Distance
                                                    Dependent Arrays
                                                          I
                                                 Compute Concentrations
Write Output
               Figure 11.  Data Processing for the Diffusion Model

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flue gas characteristics to generating-unit output loads.  The param-
eters of the linear relationship between fuel consumption and generator
output for St. Louis data are given in Appendix B.  The parameters
for the Chicago data were developed by Argonne National Laboratory
(Roberts, et al., 1970) with advice from Commonwealth Edison Company
and used in this study by permission of the Commonwealth Edison Company.
The S02 emission rate for each generator is

                          Q = .02S(A1  + A2L)                           (38)
where
          Q = SOp emission rate
          S = sulfur content of fuel
          L = hourly generator output load
      A-, ,A2 = parameters of the relationship between fuel
              consumption and power generated.

The emissions from each generator are allocated to one or more stacks
as appropriate (e.g., see Appendices B and C).  For industrial plants,
emissions due to process requirements and space heating were estimated
separately.  For St. Louis, the space heating requirements were related
to the outside air temperature following a procedure developed by
Turner (1968a).  For Chicago, it was a direct correlation with outside
air temperature (see Appendix C).  Process emissions were related to
hourly and weekly operating hours and, for Chicago, to monthly operat-
ing requirements.
          For the St. Louis data, plume rise estimates were obtained
from plume rise times wind-speed products, furnished by EPA for each
point source, by dividing this estimate by the wind speed at the

-------
physical stack height.  The EPA estimates were originally calculated
from stack data using Holland's (1953) formula, which is

                u-Ah = Vsd fl.5 + 0.00268p(-§T-§-)d]                 (39)
where
                                                       2
          u-Ah = wind speed times plume-rise product, m /sec
            V  = stack gas exit velocity, m/sec
             d = stack exit diameter, m
             P = atmospheric pressure, mb
                                                                      *.
            T  = stack gas exit temperature, °K
            T  = ambient air temperature, °K.
             a
The values obtained were taken as representative of the entire three-
month period.  For the Chicago data, plume rise estimates were obtained
using Briggs' formulas (1969)(see Section 2.3.2 of this report).   Heat
emission estimates were obtained by assuming that 15 percent of the
heat content of consumed fuel  is contained in  the flue gases.
          Area source emissions are represented by a three-dimensional
matrix of emission rates.  The dimensions of the matrix correspond to
three effective source heights and the two dimensions of a horizontal
grid work of square mile blocks.  The available emission inventory data
for each square mile include emissions associated with space heating
which are taken to be proportional to the temperature deficit from 65°F
in accordance with Turner's (1968a) technique, and emissions (for
St. Louis) associated with commercial and industrial sources which are

-------
time-of-day oriented.   The specific algorithms  used to make  hourly  area
source emission rate estimates are given in Appendices B  and C for
St. Louis and Chicago, respectively.
          The model requires a single steady-state wind direction and
wind speed profile for each one-hour period.   A vector mean  average of
the observations from several  locations was used as the mean wind direc-
tion and speed.  For St.  Louis, wind observations at three  levels on a
425-foot tower were used to empirically determine the wind  profile  power
law.  When vertical profiles were not observed, a power law  of 0.1, 0.15,
0.2, 0.25 or 0.3 was assigned corresponding to  the calculated diffusion
stability class (A to E,  as defined in Tables 2 and 3).  Since vertical
wind profiles were not available for the Chicago analyses,  the profile
power law was estimated from the stability class.  A value  of 0.1 was
assigned for classes A and B,  0.15 for class  C, 0.2 for class D and 0.3
for class E.   The change from the St. Louis values was used  to account
for the increased surface roughness around the  Chicago area.   Although the
validation study is based on the use of wind speeds and directions
determined as the vector average of several observations, there is
close agreement between these winds and the nearest airport  winds.
It is assumed that the validation findings would not be significantly
changed by the use of a single airport wind observation.  However,
for light wind situations with.wind speeds less than 5 mph,  differences
are more frequent.  The validity of the model using a single airport

-------
wind might be decreased from the results shown in this study at loca-
tions where light winds occur frequently.
          The mixing layer ceiling was estimated by interpolating
between mixing layer heights indicated by radiosonde observations made
within 100 to 200 miles of each city.   For St. Louis, the mixing layer
height was the average of daily estimates  furnished by Environmental
Protection Agency for Columbia, Missouri,  and Peoria, Illinois.   Values
for times between the early morning minimum and the afternoon maximum
(see Figure 7) were obtained by linear interpolation.  The afternoon
maximum was retained until midnight, after which the early morning value
of the following day was assumed.   For Chicago, hourly estimates were
obtained from Argonne.  These ceilings were constructed (Roberts, et  al . ,
1970) by interpolating between the Green Bay, Wisconsin and Peoria,
Illinois morning and afternoon radiosondes to define hourly vertical
temperature profiles.  The mixing ceiling for each hour is defined by
the height of the intersection of a dry adiabatic projection from the
urban surface temperature with the interpolated temperature profile.
          An urban diffusion stability index was computed using airport
weather observations according to the  rules outlined by Turner (1964)
(see Tables 2 and 3 of this report).  For St. Louis the airport weather
observations were taken at Lambert Field.   For Chicago the airport
weather observations were taken at Midway Airport.

4.2  RESULTS OF SHORT-TERM (ONE- AND TWO-HOUR) VALIDATION CALCULATIONS
          Validation results were calculated with the "narrow plume"
version of the multiple-source steady-state Gaussian plume model using

-------
hourly values of all  parameters,  including  emission  rates.   In  this

model, the largest sources are treated as  point sources.   All  other

sources are treated as an area source with  emissions at one or more  of

three effective source heights.  The method of calculation is  described

in Section 3.1 and Appendix D.  The -initial data and preprocessing treat-

ment used to produce model inputs are described in Section 4.1  and Appen-

dices B and C.


4.2.1  Comparisons with St. Louis Data

          The St. Louis comparisons cover  the three  months from 1400

December 1, 1964, to 1400 February 28, 1965.   The sampling operation

by which the observed St. Louis values were obtained was  described by

Turner and Edmisten (1968 ).   Hourly calculations were made for 10

sampler locations (shown in Figure 12). The location of the airport

weather observing station (Lambert Field),  the TV tower for vertical

wind profile observations, and the three continuous  wind measuring

stations are also shown in Figure 12.

          Figures 13 through  16 are selected examples showing  model

performance on a two-hour basis.   At each  station two, one-hour predic-

tions are averaged and compared with the corresponding two-hour SOp

observations:
               Figure 13 is a typical  example of combined over- and
               underprediction which may be found side-by-side during
               a single two-hour period.  The upper number is  the
               observed value and the lower number is  the predicted

-------
                                                                28
                                                                          36
                                                            Wind Measuring Station



                                                            Sampler Station
                                                      I
I
Figure 12.  Location of St. Louis Observing Stations Used in Validation Analysis

-------
                                                                 Missing
                                                               •(173)
                                                          489
                                                         (242)
                                                         >245
                                                         (112)
                                                                ,147
                                                                (355)
                          Missing
                         (123)
                                                  Value in Parentheses is the Predicted
                                                   Concentration
                                                                               223
                                                                               3.8
                                                                                D
                                                                                26
                                                                               589
Wind Direction (degrees)
Wind Speed (m/sec)
Stability Class
Temperature (deg., F)
Mix. Ceiling (meters)

     1                I
Figure 13.  Typical Example of Predicted and Observed Concentrations in the Vicinity of
  St. Louis for a Two-Hour Period (Average of 7 a. m.  and 8 a. m. , December 7, 1964)

-------
                                                               407
                                                               (894)
                                                                       207
                                                                      (574)
> 60
 (72)
                                                      Value in Parentheses is the Predicted
                                                       Concentration
                                                      Wind Direction (degrees)       357
                                                      Wind Speed (m/sec)           2.6
                                                      Stability Class                  E
                                                      Temperature (deg., F)          24
                                                      Mix. Ceiling (meters)          600

                                                            i	1
Figure 14.  Example of Overpredictions in the Vicinity of St. Louis During a Two-Hour Period of
           Stable Conditions (Average of 1 a.m. and 2 a.m. ,  December 15,  1964)

-------
                                                                  • 158
                                                                    (165)
                                                                  • 377
                                                            • 468    (53)
                                                             (186)
                                    • 73
                                     (14)
                                                     Value in Parentheses is the Predicted
                                                      Concentration
                                                                                   180
                                                                                   3.7
                                                                                    D
                                                                                    36
                                                                                   641
      I
I
Wind Direction (degrees)
Wind Speed (m/sec)
Stability Class
Temperature (deg., F)
Mix. Ceiling (meters)

     1
Figure 15.  Example of Underprediction in the Vicinity of St. Louis During a Two-Hour Period
        with Southerly Winds (Average of 1 a.m. and 2 a.m. , December 12, 1964)

-------
                                                                       Missing
                                                                      (14)
                                                                    O77
                                                                100   (51)
                                                                (60)
,58
 (37)
                                                       Value in Parentheses is the Predicted
                                                         Concentration
                                                       Wind Direction (degrees)        146
                                                       Wind Speed (m/sec)            4.7
                                                       Stability Class                  D
                                                       Temperature (deg., F)           42
                                                       Mix. Ceiling (meters)          338

                                                            I                 I
        Figure 16.  Example of Good Correspondence Between Predicted and Observed
Concentrations During a Two-Hour Period (Average of 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. , December 9, 1964)

-------
          t    Figure 14 illustrates over-prediction.  This case
               is an example of a Turner stability class E situation.
               It may be noted in passing that the model is very
               sensitive to changes in stability class.   A change
               from class D to class E results in the prediction
               increasing by a factor of 2 to 5.  This subject is
               treated at greater length in Section 5.4.

          •    Figure 15 illustrates underprediction.  It was noted
               that underprediction generally occurred with a south
               wind and with unseasonably warm temperatures.  There
               may be an error in the emission algorithms under
               these circumstances, in that the operation of furnaces
               for space heating may not follow the temperature
               relationship indicated by the emission algorithm.
               For example, furnaces in commercial and apartment
               buildings may be improperly adjusted for the unseasonably
               warm temperatures.

          •    Figure 16 illustrates generally good correlation between
               predicted and observed values at most stations.
          Comparisons of two-hour concentrations were made for all  ten

stations for the three-month period in the St.  Louis data set.  A statis-

tical summary of the validation results obtained by comparing model  pre-

dictions with observations is shown in Table 8 and Figures 17 through

22 for these stations.   For each station individually, and for all  sta-

tions combined, a mean value and standard deviation were obtained for

observed, predicted, and observed minus predicted values.

          In general the mean observed and predicted values for indi-

vidual stations, shown in Table 8, are in good agreement.  However,

this agreement is more indicative of the model's ability to predict

long-term rather than short-term concentrations.  The overall frequency

-------
                                                                                                            (a)
                              Table 8.  Statistical Summary of Predicted and Observed Two-Hour Concentrations     for St. Louis Stations
Station
Number
3
"4
10
12
15
17
23
28
33
36
All
Mean
Observed
Values
156
175
335
179
137
211
90
87
73
80
154
Predicted
Values
196
142
207
211
118
181
191
94
61
88 •
151
Observed
Mean
Minus
Predicted
Mean
- 40
+ 33
+128
- 31
+ 19
+ 31
-101
- . 7
+ 11
- • 8
+ 3
Standard Deviation
Observed
Values
145
157
237
136
132
124
106
117
88
78
159
Predicted
Values
180
195
165
214
119
161
241
149
99
134
.179
Observed
Minus
Predicted
Values
207
212
255
194
133
161
238
152
103
122
. 194
Mean Absolute
Difference
of Observed
Minus Predicted
130
116
201
121
87
114
142
80
53
64
112
Regression of
Observed on
Predicted Values
Slope
0. 1637
0.2354
0.3373
0. 2891
0. 4964
0. 2973
0. 1085
0. 2849
0.3517
0. 2542
0. 3085
Intercept
123.9
141.4
265.2
118.4
78.6
157.7 '
69.2
60.1
51.1
57.2
107.9
Number
of Values
1037
872
975
980
900
1031
963
788
922
952
9420
Correlation
Coefficient
0.203
0.292
0.235
0.455
0.448
0.386
0.247
0.363
0.396
0.437
0.347
-vl
o

-------
^
I
 V
          Figure 17.  Frequency Distributions of Observed,  Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted
                        Two-Hour Concentrations for Ten St. Louis Stations Combined

-------
    1000
     500
 £
"a
 a.
I
     100
50
      10
                                          Cumulative Percentage


                         )0    15   20     30   40   50   60    70     80   85    90














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          Figure 18.  Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted

                             Two-Hour Concentrations for St. Louis Stations 3 and IS

-------
tration, /j[g
nc
                                Cumulative Percentage
Figure 19.  Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted
                   Two-Hour Concentrations for St.  Louis Stations 17 and 23

-------

-------
8
a
                                       Cumulative Percentage
          2':-.     5      10    IS  20    30   40    50   60    70    80  85    90      95     9!
              OVERPREDICTION
              (PRED. - OBS.)
         Figure 21. Frequency Distribution of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted
                        Two-Hour Concentrations for St. Louis Stations 10 and 28
                                               -75-

-------
1000
 500
                                     Cumulative Percentage
      2^	5	]Q   15   20     30   40    50    60    70    80  85   90	95	y
 100
  50
a
o

I
o
<3
  10
                  _Q
       STATION 12-
         STATION 36.


                                                    7
                               STATION 36 S^ATION 12
                                                           ~L
      Figure 22. Frequency Distribution of Observed,  Predicted, and Observed-Minu^-Predicted
                     Two-Hour Concentrations for St. Louis Stations 12 and 36

-------
distributions of predicted two-hour concentrations for the 89-day period
at individual stations is in good agreement with the overall  distribu-
tions of observed two-hour concentrations.   This may be seen  in Figures  18
through 22.  However, the agreement between predicted and observed values
for any single two-hour period is not nearly as good as the overall  agree-
ment might suggest.  The magnitude of individual differences  is shown by
the standard deviations and mean absolute differences of observed minus
predicted values in Table 8.  This error with regard to individual  two-
hour time periods is also evident in the shallow slopes and high inter-
cept values obtained for the regression coefficients of observed on
predicted values.  A more detailed accounting of the error distribution
of observed minus predicted values is shown for each individual station
in Figures 18 through 22.  These curves are labeled as "over-" and
"underpredicted" in each graph.  To make all differences positive for
presentation on logarithmic scale, overpredictions are shown  as pre-
dicted minus observed values.
          The frequency distribution of the combined set of all predicted
two-hour concentrations is shown in Figure 17 to correspond very closely
with the observed frequency distribution.  The observed and predicted
                                                   3
means of all stations combined are 154 and 151 yg/m , respectively.   The
standard deviations are 159 and 179 yg/m ,  respectively, as shown in
Table 8.  In Figure 17, the fact that the curves for overpredictions
and underpredictions are approximately symmetrical and meet a little
below the 50 percent line (about 40-45 percent) indicates that there
is no particular tendency to over- or underpredict.  The figure also

-------
indicates that 50 percent of the observed values lie within +_ 60 yg/m
of the predicted values.  This is in relation to a mean predicted value
           o
of 151 yg/m .   About 65 percent of the observed values lie within
+_ 100 yg/m  of the predicted value.  The majority of the differences
between predicted and observed values are noticeably smaller than the
overall mean values.  These predictions are not adjusted or scaled to
the observed values.  The individual station curves reflect the variety
of results which contribute to this finding.
4.2.2  Comparisons with Chicago Data
          Observed and calculated short-term (one-hour) concentrations
were obtained for eight TAM (Telemetered Air Monitoring)  stations in the
Chicago area based on data collected for the period 0000 January 1,  1967
to 2300 January 31,  1967.   These locations are shown in Figure 23.
          The  Chicago monitoring equipment  automatically  records five-
minute  average S02  concentrations.  At  15-minute  intervals the  average
concentration  for the preceding  15-minute period  is telemetered to a
central  location where  it is  recorded on  tape.  The original  data tapes
have  been edited by  Argonne National Laboratory to obtain hourly averages,
by averaging five sequential  15-minute  observations.   The middle of the
third 15-minute period  of each hour was centered  on the hour.   A
description of the  Chicao TAM network was reported by  Booras  and
Zimmer  (1968).  The  S02 monitoring was  done with  continuous conductivity
analyzers.  In these instruments,  air is  continuously  admitted  to an

-------
                                                              LAKE MICHIGAN
                           Midway Airport    Q _
                                                                                   Ind.
Figure 23.  Location of Chicago TAM Stations Used in Validation Analysis

-------
absorber where SCk in the airstream is removed by a continuously flow-
ing liquid absorbent.  The electrical conductivity of the resulting
solution is continuously measured and recorded.  The readings are
directly proportional to S02 concentrations.  An integrated five-minute
average is obtained automatically.
          A statistical  summary of the results of comparisons of the
model  predictions with the one-hour Chicago observations is  given in
Table 9, and in Figures  24-28 (similar to the St. Louis summary in
Section 4.2.1).
          As shown in Table 9,  the predicted concentrations  were on the
average higher than the  observed concentrations at six of the eight sta-
tions.  In addition,  the standard deviations of predicted values at each
station were larger than the standard deviations of observed values by
a factor varying between 2 and 3.  The frequency distributions of
observed and predicted values,  and the over- and underpredictions of
the observed minus predicted concentrations for individual stations
are shown in Figures  25  through 28.  The frequency distributions of
predicted and observed values for stations 4, 5, 6, and 7 in Figures 26,
27, and 28 show that for these stations high concentrations  are predicted
more frequently than they are observed and low concentrations are observed
more frequently than they are predicted.  In Figure 28 the predominant
difference between predicted and observed frequency distributions for
station 8 is the high frequency of predicted low concentrations compared

-------
                             Table 9.  Statistical Summary of Predicted and Observed One-Hour Concentrations    for Chicago Stations
                                                                                                        (a)
TAM(b)
Station
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
All
Mean
of
Observed
Values
33
114
312
123
62
23
102
43
96
of
Predicted
Values
47
99
379
315
128
58
158
36
145
Observed
Mean
Minus
Predicted
Mean
- 14
+ 15
- 67
-192
- 66
- 35
- 55
+ 7
- 49
Standard Deviation
of
Observed
Values
56
87
152
89
47
32
95
39
117
of
Predicted
Values
111
108
416
294
140
98
159
76
232
of
Observed
Minus
Predicted
Values
98
128
397
274
135
97
157
83
201
Mean Absolute
Difference
of Observed
Minus Predicted
39
87
221
201
83
45
100
45
99
Regression of
Observed on
Predicted Values
Slope
0. 2349
0.1188
0. 1106
0.1119
0. 0936
0. 0595
0. 1905
0.0366
0. 2493
Intercept
21.6
102.7
269.7
88.0
50.2
19.5
72.2
41.8
60.2
Number
of Values
723
602
606
614
722
703
711
726
5407
Correlation
Coefficient
0.466
0.148
0.303
0.370
0.279
0.182
0.319
0.071
0.494
 I
00
               (a)  Units are ng/m .

-------
   500
I
a
a
   100
    50
     10
                                       Cumulative Percentage
  1000  ,2''     s.
                   \
             OVERPREDICTION-
             (PRED. - OBS.'.
                                 \
                                   \
V

                                                                  85
                                                                7
                                                             (UNDERPREDICTION
                                                              (OBS. - PREP.)_
        Figure 24.  Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted
                    One-Hour Concentrations for Eight Chicago Stations Combined

-------
    1000
     500
                                          Cumulative Percentage

                        10   15  20     30   40    50    60    70     80  85   90	95	989«
     100
      50
rt
!
      10
        Figure 25. Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted
                          One-Hour Concentrations for Chicago Stations 1  and 2

-------
    1000
     500
     100  —
      50
o
a
      10
                                         Cumulative Percentage
          2'.     5      JO   IS  20     30   40   50   60    70    80  85    90     95     98%
                                           STATION 3
         Figure 26.  Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted


                          One-Hour Concentrations for Chicago Stations 3 and 4

-------
   1000
    500
                                        Cumulative Percentage

         2v:	5	]0    15   20     30   40    50    60    70    80  85   90	95	98 %
    100
     »
a
1
     10
           STATION 5

             STATION 6
                                   \

        Figure 27.  Frequency Distribution of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted
                         One-Hour Concentrations for Chicago Stations 5 and 6

-------
     1000
     500
t>o
=».
•
rt
3
      100
      50
       10
                                         Cumulative Percentage


                        10   15  20     30   40   50    60   70    80  85   90	95	98%
                              \
                     1
             STATION
              STATION
                                    STATION 8
          Figure 28.  Frequency Distributions of Observed, Predicted and Observed-Minus-Predicted


                          One-Hour Concentrations for Chicago Stations 7 and 8

-------
to the observed frequency.  Close correspondence between the predicted


and observed frequency distributions is shown for stations 1, 2, and 3


in Figures 25 and 26.  However, for all 8 stations the slopes of the


curves for the two frequency distributions are similar.   The frequency


distributions of observed minus predicted values shown for each station


in Figures 25 to 28 give a detailed breakdown of the wide variations


which occur for single hour comparisons between predicted and observed


values.


          The predicted and observed mean concentrations for all 8 sta-

                                                                       3
tions over the 31-day period are shown in Table 9 to be  145 and 96 yg/m ,


respectively.  The standard deviations of hourly values  were 232 and

        3
117 yg/m , respectively.  Figure 24 reflects the general tendency to


overpredict for these data.  The smoothed extrapolation  of observed


values shown in Figure 24 was constructed to attempt to  account for


threshold and sensitivity limitations of the monitoring  equipment.

However, the validation statistics in this analysis are based on the


reported observations and do not reflect possible observation errors


due to instrument limitations.  Approximately 50 percent of all the


predicted values were within 45 yg/m  of the observed values.  This

                                             3
is in comparison with a mean value of 96 yg/m  and a median value of

       3
50 yg/m  .  Approximately 73 percent of the predicted values were

               3
within 100 yg/m  of the observed values.

-------
 4.2.3  Very  Light Hind  Speed Situations and Model  Validity with
        Variations in  Hind Speed
            It may be noted in Equations 28  and 29  that concentrations
 predicted  by the Gaussian plume  urban diffusion model  are undefined
 for a wind speed of zero.  An  exception may occur  if,  as suggested by
 Roberts, et  al.,  (1970), the diffusion parameters are  treated  as func-
 tions of time rather  than distance.*  Vectorially  averaged wind speeds
 at  a height  of 20 meters were  never less than 1.5  m/sec in the St. Louis
 data set.  However, in  the Chicago data set,  several  instances of nearly
 zero wind  occurred, resulting  in very large concentration predictions.
 As  a result,  it was decided to separate from the validation analysis all
 periods in which the  wind speed  was less than 1.0  m/sec and analyze them
 separately.
* If the diffusion parameters av and az are treated as power functions of time, the substitution of
distance divided by wind speed (x/u) for time will,  for certain powers,  result in an expression for
concentration which approaches zero as wind speed approaches zero.  The problem with this approach
is that most experimental data suggest that the diffusion parameters are functions of distance rather
than time. The use of time implies that the diffusion parameters are inversely proportional to a
power of wind speed rather than directly proportional as is commonly observed in wind tunnel experi-

-------
          In retrospect, an attempt was made to determine what should
be done about situations with wind speeds less than 1.0 m/sec.  One
method contemplated was to extrapolate the trend of observed concentra-
tions with wind speed averaged over all observations to eliminate the
appropriate values for low wind speeds.  Tables 10 and 11 show the rela-
tion between wind speed and observed short-term concentrations for
locations in St. Louis and Chicago, respectively.   The lowest wind speed
class at each of the two sites contradicts the otherwise consistent
inverse proportionality relationship.  As a matter of interest,  the pre-
dicted and observed minus predicted concentration relationships  with
wind speed are also shown.  These results show that the model  predicts
a greater variation in concentration with wind speed than is reflected
by the observations.  If all the error were attributed to wind speed,
the average overprediction error would be 50 percent or greater for
wind speeds less than 2.5 m/sec for St. Louis and less than 4.0  m/sec
for Chicago.
          At present it appears that the model is inappropriate  for pre-
dicting concentrations in very light wind situations (e.g., u <_ 1.5 m/sec).
An alternative is to use the model to predict short-term concentrations
for wind speeds in excess of 1.5 m/sec, and to use an empirical  estimate
to predict short-term concentrations for wind speeds less than,  or equal
to, 1.5 m/sec.  An empirical estimate may be derived for a sampler loca-
tion by first dividing all the concentrations observed during each short-
term period (one or two hours) in which the mean wind speed is less than
1.5 m/sec by the average emission rate from all sources during each period.

-------
Table 10.  Observed, Predicted and Observed Minus Predicted
   Concentrations By Wind Speed Class for St. Louis Data
Wind Speed
Class (m/sec)
1.5
1.5 < u < 2.0
2.0< u < 2. 5
2.5< u < 3.0
3.0 < u <4.0
4.0 < u < 5.0
5.0 < u < 6.0
6.0 
-------
The mean of these computed ratios times the emission rate Q.(t)  for a
                                                           J
period (t) of interest provides an empirically estimated concentration
x-(t) as indicated by following equation:
 J
                                                                     (40
If observations are not available, an empirical  estimate can  be  obtained
from the model by using a wind speed of 4 m/sec  to approximate the  light
wind speed situation and averaging the concentrations  predicted  for each
of the sixteen major compass points as a wind direction.  The selection
of 4 m/sec for a wind speed is based on the validation results which
show that for St. Louis the mean concentration observed with  wind speeds
of 1.5 m/sec lies between the predictions for wind speeds of  3 to 4 m/sec
and those for 4 to 5 m/sec; for Chicago the mean concentration for  wind
speeds of 1.0 to 1.5 m/sec equal those predicted for wind speeds of 4
to 5 m/sec.
          The cause of the trend from underprediction  to overprediction
with decreasing wind speed is not clear.  It may be associated with
inadequate estimates of the diffusion parameters a  (and a to a lesser
extent) and with inadequate accounting of the effect of wind  speed  in
emission rates.  At present no dependence on wind speed is considered
for emission rates.  For example, the fuel consumption rate for
space heating is presently taken to be a function of temperature;
however, it is also affected by wind speed.  During high wind speeds,
greater fuel consumption occurs than is predicted which results  in
higher emission rates and higher observed concentrations than are

-------
predicted.  Similarly, during light wind speeds,  lower fuel  consumption
rates occur which result in lower observed concentrations  than are pre-
dicted.  The dependence of diffusion parameters on wind speed is  presently
taken to be one in which the parameters vary directly with the product
of wind speed and time (i.e., the parameters are functions of travel  dis-
tance).  While considerable support for this relationship  has been reported
from tracer experiments in flat, open country,  it may be less appropriate
in an urban area.
          The mean prediction error (i.e., mean one- or two-hour  observed
concentration minus predicted concentration at  each sample location aver-
aged over all locations and all  observing periods) is less than 50 percent
of the mean observed concentration for wind speed classes  in excess of
2.5 m/sec in St. Louis and wind  speed classes in  excess of 4 m/sec in
Chicago.  For wind speeds of 1.5 m/sec in St. Louis and a  wind speed
class of 1.0 to 1.5 m/sec in Chicago the mean prediction error is greater
than twice the mean observed concentration in both St.  Louis and  Chicago.

4.2.4  Summary and Conclusions for Short-Term Concentrations
          The Chicago error distributions are not greatly  different
from those observed for St. Louis.  Thus, although the overall  distribution
of predicted values for Chicago  seems to be biased to the  high side,  rela-
tive to the distribution of observed values, the  magnitude of the errors
between predicted and observed values is not much greater.  On this basis
the validity of the model has been summarized in  terms  of  the frequency
distribution of absolute errors  (predicted minus  observed  concentration)
associated with the results of this study.  A tabulation of error limits,

-------
and the percentage  of  the  comparisons  between predicted and observed
concentrations which lie within  each  limit,  is given in Table 12 for
the St. Louis and Chicago  results.  The values entered in this table
are obtained from Figures  17  and 24 by subtracting the cumulative per-
centage of overpredictions  from  the cumulative percentage of underpre-
dictions which correspond  to  a concentration error range.
            Table 12.  Comparison of Error Distributions for Two-Hourly St. Louis
                    and Hourly Chicago Validation Calculations
Range of Predicted Minus
Observed Concentration
3
cg/m
± 5
+ 10
+ 20
+ 50
+100
+ 150
% of Comparisons Within Error Limits
St. Louis
(Mean Observed
x 3
Concentration = 154 Mg/m )
8
15
25
46
65
76
Chicago
(Mean Observed
Concentration = 96 Mg/m )
8
17
30
53
73
82
          As a concluding  comment on  this  portion of the analysis, it
is noted that, except  for  wind  speed  discussed in the preceding section,
no single factor was shown to consistently affect the results.  The
prediction errors appear to result from a  variety and random sequence
of errors in both the  observations and  the model  parameters.  Factors
which are particularly uncertain  are  the accuracy of an individual
sampler observation  for a  short-term  period (especially for the Chicago
data where duplicate sampling was not available), the hourly emission
rate estimates which may contain  temperature or time of day biases which

-------
are systematic over the entire city, and estimates of diffusion param-
eter values (o  and a ) which cannot clearly be delineated by atmospheric
stability measurements.  A more complete discussion of the effect of
model inputs on model predictions is given in Section 5.0 on sensitivity
analysis.
          If the validity of the model is judged on the basis of its
ability to reproduce the observed frequency distribution of short term
concentrations over a long term period, the model gives satisfactory
results when the combined frequency distribution for several observing
locations is considered.  Comparisons of predicted and observed frequency
distributions at individual locations are more variable.  Another basis
for judging validity is to compare the standard deviation of observed
minus predicted concentrations  (root-mean-square-error)  for model
predictions  with that for empirically derived predictions.   On  this
basis,  Marsh and Withers (1969)  concluded from a model  validation  study
conducted with data from Reading,  England,  that empirical  models  are
more satisfactory than the Gaussian  plume type of dispersion model  for
predicting S02 concentrations  from area sources.   However,  the  model
approach is  more general, does  not require  empirical  adjustment,  and
provides greater confidence for extrapolation to unobserved conditions.
          It is concluded that,  although one-hour or two-hour predicted
SOp concentrations  show large  deviations from observed values from hour
to hour, the frequency distribution  of observed values  over a month  or
a season are closely approximated by the frequency distribution of pre-
dicted values.   This conclusion  is based on the use of routine  airport

-------
and radiosonde meteorological  observations  for estimating  diffusion
parameters and the mixing ceiling,  multiple (three  or more)  continuous
measurements for measuring hourly averages  of wind  speed and direction,
and moderately detailed emission inventory  data (e.g., including  annual
space heating and processing fuel requirements and  stack characteristics
of large fuel users, hourly power outputs of electricity generating  plants)

4.3  RESULTS OF LONG-TERM CALCULATIONS
          In the preceding section  the validity of  model predictions  of
hourly (and two-hourly) concentrations, and the distribution of these
concentrations over a month, or a season, were examined.   In this  present
section, the validity of the model  for long-term mean prediction  is
examined.  As with the short-term concentrations the long-term mean
concentration data include a moderately detailed emission  inventory
from which hourly estimates of emission rates were  derived,  routine
airport weather observations to estimate atmospheric stability, radio-
sonde observations to estimate mixing ceiling heights, and the mean  of
several continuous wind speed and direction averages (three  locations
for St. Louis, eight for Chicago).   Also,  in view of the computations
required to derive a mean by averaging a large number of one-hour
values, the use of a statistical sampling plan to reduce the computations
is presented in Section 4.3.2.  This approach provides a method of
treating many variables in the model (not just three) without unduly
adding to the computational burden.  Finally, results obtained in  this
study are compared with other long-term validation  study results.

-------
4.3.1  Validation Results
          Figure 29 shows the mean of predicted and observed two-hour
concentrations for the 1964-65 winter season consisting of December,
January and February at 10 stations in the St.  Louis area.   The means
show relatively good agreement with observed seasonal  means.   A root-
                                   's
mean-square-error (RMSE) of 56 yg/m  was observed compared to an overall
                3
mean of 154 yg/m .   Furthermore, the correlation between predicted and
observed seasonal means is quite good, as shown in Figure 30 (representing
a regression of observed values on predicted with a slope of 0.98 and
intercept of slightly less than zero).  The correlation coefficient
of 0.675 indicates  that the regression line accounts for about 46 percent
of the observed variance.
          The mean  of hourly concentrations for Chicago Telemetering
Air Monitor (TAM) stations for the month of January 1967 is shown in
Figure 31.  The RMSE for monthly mean concentration at eight stations was
       3                                                3
78 yg/m  compared to an overall observed mean of 96 yg/m .   Figure 32
shows the correlation between predicted and observed monthly mean values
for the eight stations.  The slope of the regression line is 0.63 and
the intercept is 4.9.  The results suggest a tendency of the model  to
overpredict.  In the above comparisons, cases in which the wind speed
was less than 1.0 meter per second were not included.   For such low
wind speeds, local  circulation effects will dominate over a general  trans-
port phenomenon such as is inherent in a steady-state Gaussian plume
model.

-------
                                                          &
                                                         (207)
                                                                    179

                                                                   (211)
 9
 80

(88)
                                                            ST. LOUIS

                                                    Dec. 1964; Jan. , Feb. 1965


                                                    2-hr. SO  Observations


                                            Value in parentheses is the prediction
Figure 29.  Observed and Predicted Seasonal Mean Concentrations for 10 St.  Louis Stations

-------
     400
     300
00
3.


a
o
•a
a

ia    200
01
o
c
a
-o
O
     100
                        Q,
                                              o
                                       o
                                                              o
                                                         o
                                                                o
                                                            o
                                                           o
                                                                       OBSERVATION = 0.98 (PREDICTION) - 0. 56


                                                                             Correlation Coefficient = 0. 675
                                           I      I       I
                                                                     I	I	I
                                                                                               I	i	i
                                   100                       200                       300


                                                   Predicted Concentration

                                                 (micrograms per cubic meter)
                                                                                                                  400
                 Figure 30.  Regression Analysis of Seasonal Mean Concentrations for 10 St.  Louis Stations


                                                  (Winter 1964-65)

-------
c?
           CHICAGO
          January 1967
    Value in parentheses is the prediction
       Figure 31.  Observed and Predicted Mean Monthly Concentrations for Eight Chicago Stations

-------
    400
    300
M)
3.

I
a
13
o
    200
    100
                       o
               I	I
                                 o
                                         o
                                                                                                           o
                                                                                          o
                                                                   OBSERVATION = 0.63 (PREDICTION) + 4. 9
                                                                         Correlation Coefficient = 0. 873
                                                             I
                                 100
            200
   Predicted Concentration
(micrograms per cubic meter)
300
400
         Figure 32.  Regression Analysis of Monthly Mean Concentrations for Eight Chicago Stations (January 1967)

-------
          The combined long-term RMSE for individual  station means at
                          3                                        3
both locations was 68 yg/m  compared to an overall  mean of 128 yg/m.
This shows that the overall RMSE is about one-half of the overall
mean.  The median observed minus predicted concentration for the two
                        3
locations was -11.5 yg/m .   In addition the long-term mean was over-
predicated at 11 stations and underpredicted at seven stations.   These
results indicate a tendency to overestimate observed concentrations
more often than to underestimate.
4.3.2  Use of Sampling Plan
          In most previous approaches to computing long-term concern-
trations it has been assumed that emission rates are independent of
meteorological conditions, and the long-term average concentrations
were calculated using a mean emission rate.  This assumption was necessi-
tated by the lack of data available to estimate diurnal  variations.   In
the more detailed approach used in this study all hourly concentrations
within a long-term period are calculated to determine the long-term
mean and the frequency distribution of short-term concentrations.  This
requires a considerable computational burden.  It is desirable to
introduce a computational procedure which does not bias the correlation
between emission rates and meteorological conditions and does not require
excessive computation time.  An approach to reducing the running time

-------
developed (Hansen  et al.  1953).*   It amounts  to deriving a mean  and
frequency distribution  of calculated concentrations  using only  a sampled
set of inputs.   For example, if every other  hour is  sampled, the long-
term  concentration may  still be obtained and the computations are
reduced by a  factor of  2.   If every sixth hour  is  used,  computations
are reduced by  a factor of 6, etc.   In the proposed  plan the hours
are statistically sampled by randomly selecting the  first hour  of the
first day in  the set,  and selecting additional  hours which are  one
sample increment away  from the selected  hour, as follows:  The  first
hour  is incremented by one for each succeeding day  in the calendar
period.  Thus,  if the  sample increment is  six hours  and the  first
selected hour is hour  1, hours 1,  7, 13  and  19 will  be selected from
the first day;  hours 2, 8, 14 and  20, from the second day; etc.
           In  order to  test the validity  of the use  of various sampling
intervals, the  sampling plan was applied to  the St.  Louis data  at each
of the 10 stations for which hourly calculations had been made  for  the
months of December 1964, January and February 1965.   The mean,  standard
deviation and deciles  of hourly concentrations obtained with  statistical
*The type of sampling used here is known as proportionate stratified sampling.  The following
 excerpt from page 121 of the cited reference defines the term:  ".... the elements (sampling
 units) of the population are divided into groups, referred to as strata, such that each element
 is contai ned in one and only one stratum. The sample is then chosen by selecting a simple
 random sample of elements from each stratum. The sampling fraction may vary from stratum
 to stratum or may be uniform in all strata. • If the sampling fraction is uniform the sampling
 plan is referred to as proportionate stratified sampling. "

    The sampling units are hourly concentration values.  The strata are the hours of the day
 and the days of the week.  The sampling plan ensures that the sampling fraction is uniform
 over the strata.  The method of taking every n-th observation is not strictly random but is
 equivalent to it unless there is a periodicity of length n in the data.  It is assumed that there
 is no periodicity for the values of n used here.

-------
 sampling intervals of 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 and 24 hours are listed in Table  13


for station number 3.   Results for the other nine stations  are  shown in


Tables 14 through 22.   The largest deviation of a decile  concentration


for a 24-hour sampling interval,  from that obtained with  a  one-hour


sampling interval, was 25 percent of the one-hour decile  value.   In

                                                      3
absolute magnitude the greatest deviation was  601  yg/m compared  to

        3
513 yg/m  for the one-hour 90 percent decile at station number  12.


The results show that, except for the single highest  value,  the entire


frequency distribution of concentrations can be reasonably  reproduced


using a 24-hour interval  between  sampled periods.  Table  23  shows  the


mean, standard deviation  and deciles for all  hourly station  concentra-


tions combined.  Except for the extreme maximum the largest  difference


between a mean two-hour decile concentration and a decile concentration
                                             3
from the 24-hour sampling interval is 17 yg/m  for the 90th  percentile.


This is about 10 percent  of the mean value of 2-hour  averages of

        3                                                           3
151 yg/m , and about 5 percent of the 90 percentile value of 363  yg/m  .


In the view of the uncertainties  in the model  predictive  accuracy on an


hour-by-hour basis shown  by the comparisons between predicted and


observed concentrations,  the small errors in constructing frequency


distributions by using the selective 24-hour sampling plan  illustrated


above do not seem to be significant.

-------
             Table 13.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                  Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #3

No. of Cases
Mean, Mg/m
Std. Dev. , ^g/m
Deciles (/^g/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122
195
205
10
53
71
87
105
128
163
211
289
430
5019
2
1060
191
171
10
53
72
87
106
127
156
208
291
429
1195
4
530
193
173
10
51
70
86
107
128
162
214
296
434
1195
6
351
195
180
10
52
72
88
105
126
155
207
301
446
1195
8
267
190
172
17
51
68
82
102
123
150
201
296
434
1025
12
176
200
187
10
53
70
87
109
131
156
208
296
449
1195
24
86
188
170
18
51
64
82
103
118
146
202
270
409
1025
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
            Table 14.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                 Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #4

No. of Cases
Mean, Mg/m
Std. Dev. , Mg/m
3
Deciles (pg/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122
143
204
8
22
31
44
58
80
110
151
215
325
4254
2
1060
145
211
8
22
31
44
56
79
103
152
215
335
3371
4
530
150
227
10
21
30
43
58
80
107
146
233
335
3371
7
351
139
150
10
21
29
44
57
81
110
161
215
330
979
9
267
150
195
10
21
28
44
61
81
111
144
215
355
1428
12
176
138
151
10
19
29
37
54
81
114
153
220
330
979
24
86
133
154
10
19
29
37
54
81
100
136
202
294
979
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
Table 15. Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #10

No. of Cases
Mean, jug/m
Std. Dev. , /ig/m
Deciles (/xg/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122
208
182
11
44
69
96
120
149
192
243
318
448
1626
2
1060
208
184
14
45
70
95
119
145
188
243
319
436
1626
4
530
209
182
14
47
70
94
115
149
190
253
321
432
1154
6
351
205
182
15
47
71
97
117
145
184
236
304
404
1626
8
267
204
181
14
47
71
88
113
146
190
243
302
393
1054
12
176
194
165
15
47
70
88
112
141
171
231
301
393
999
24
86
207
171
15
35
56
79
112
152
190
278
321
400
872
(a) Lowest Value

-------
           Table 16.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                Concentrations Over Winter Season for St.  Louis Station #12

No. of Cases
Mean, /ig/m
Std. Dev. , /ig/m
3
Deciles (/ig/m ):
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122
220
239
10
37
53
72
101
136
182
244
335
513
2211
2
1060
217
232
11
37
52
72
101
134
179
243
326
487
2070
4
530
224
245
11
38
53
71
100
132
180
251
338
506
2070
6
351
221
256
12
37
52
70
100
129
176
230
315
490
2070
8
267
234
273
11
40
59
76
104
131
178
243
319
565
2070
12
176
220
260
17
36
50
66
97
132
175
238
303
463
2070
24
86
250
309
17
36
60
81
100
138
183
270
313
601
2070
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
            Table 17.  Mean,  Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                 Concentration Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #15

No. of Cases
3
Mean, /ig/m
3
Std. Dev. , ^g/m
3
Deciles (Jtg/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122

123

139


3
22
31
42
57
78
101
132
182
274
1370
2
1060

120

128


7
22
32
41
57
77
98
129
176
269
931
4
530

118

127


7
22
32
42
58
78
96
126
174
262
931
6
351

127

144


7
22
32
41
54
76
102
137
185
284
931
8
267

113

120


9
20
30
41
60
78
96
115
163
253
931
12
176

133

158


7
21
29
39
57
75
97
137
182
304
931
24
86

117

139


9
22
30
37
58
78
95
113
152
223
931
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
             Table 18.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                    Concentration Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station

No. of Cases
Mean, /xg/m
Std. Dev. , //g/m
Deciles {/ig/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122
181
172
9
48
67
83
101
125
155
203
260
383
1759
2
1060
181
180
9
46
65
82
101
127
155
201
260
378
1759
4
530
181
172
9
45
64
80
102
133
159
203
260
369
1623
6
351
178
152
9
47
64
80
97
127
157
208
271
380
1016
8
267
180
166
9
45
65
82
104
126
156
201
260
381
1252
12
176
185
166
9
53
65
80
102
137
157
201
269
393
1016
24
86
201
189
9
55
73
82
113
137
166
223
272
380
1016
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
            Table 19.  Mean,
                 Concentratio
 Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
m Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #23

No. of Cases
3
Mean, /xg/m
3
Std. Dev. , /ig/m
3
Deciles (/ig/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122

185

260


5
15
24
42
60
88
127
177
283
483
3215
2
1060

189

270


5
14
24
42
58
84
126
187
289
483
3215
4
530

188

251


7
14
24
43
62
92
130
189
287
460
1614
6
351

184

247


5
14
24
42
58
81
116
187
291
460
1614
8
267

181

235


7
14
23
42
61
89
130
173
283
460
1614
12
176

193

269


7
13
24
47
62
93
116
190
291
494
1614
24
86

216

288


8
13
23
35
63
103
140
264
313
519
1614
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
            Table 20.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                   Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #28

No. of Cases
3
Mean, /ig/m
3
Std. Dev. , /u.g/m
3
Deciles (/*g/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122

94

174


1
2
5
9
15
25
45
81
146
246
2344
2
1060

92

165


1
2
5
9
14
25
44
81
144
245
1457
4
530

96

180


1
2
5
9
14
24
44
76
139
237
1457
6
351

92

163


1
3
5
9
15
23
41
82
139
232
1117
8
267

106

210


1
2
4
9
14
25
47
71
134
259
1457
12
176

97

183


1
2
4
9
14
23
37
63
133
234
1117
24
86

115

225


1
2
4
9
12
24
33
63
125
280
1117
(a)  Lowest Value

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            Table 21.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                 Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #33

No. of Cases
3
Mean, /ig/m
3
Std. Dev. , /ig/m
3
Deciles (/xg/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122

60

105


1
6
9
14
19
25
34
51
76
144
1235
2
1060

59

102


1
6
9
14
19
26
34
51
74
136
1180
4
530

58

99


1
6
9
14
19
26
35
52
74
132
1180
6
351

54

78


1
6
9
14
19
26
35
55
81
132
741
8
267

57

97


1
5
9
13
17
24
32
52
74
125
846
12
176

60

89


1
5
9
14
19
27
38
61
91
138
741
24
86

69

112


1
5
9
14
21
27
36
57
91
140
741
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
            Table 22.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                 Concentrations Over Winter Season for St. Louis Station #36

No. of Cases
3
Mean, /ig/m
3
Std. Dev. , /ig/m
3
Deciles (/xg/m );
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sampling Interval, Hours
1
2122

93

151


1
9
15
20
27
37
54
77
118
222
1295
2
1060

93

156


2
9
15
20
27
37
54
75
114
221
1295
4
530

98

164


2
9
13
20
26
36
55
86
118
239
1213
6
351

87

143


2
9
15
19
26
34
50
71
110
191
933
8
267

99

174


2
9
14
19
26
36
48
83
122
220
1213
12
176

79

121


2
9
14
20
26
34
45
73
109
165
891
24
86

86

119


3
11
17
20
26
34
44
96
127
191
686
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
             Table 23.  Mean, Standard Deviation and Deciles of Predicted Hourly
                 Concentrations Over Winter Season for Ten St. Louis Stations

No. of Cases
Mean, ^g/m
3
Std. Dev. , Mg/m
Deciles (cg/m ):
0(a)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Two-Hour
Averages
9420
151
179
1
16
29
48
67
91
122
168
235
363
3579
Sampling Interval, Hours
2
10600
149
193
1
13
26
41
60
84
114
157
231
365
3371
4
5300
151
195
1
13
26
42
62
85
114
159
237
365
3371
4
3510
148
184
1
13
25
41
61
85
114
157
229
369
2070
4
2670
152
196
1
13
25
41
62
85
114
156
229
361
2070
12
1760
150
190
1
13
25
42
61
85
115
156
234
376
2070
24
860
158
206
1
14
25
41
62
87
118
160
247
380
2070
(a)  Lowest Value

-------
      Table  24  summarizes the increasing  uncertainty associated with

increasing the  sampling interval.  The  root-mean-square-error  (RMSE)  in

mean long-term  (seasonal) concentrations  at  a single station for  various

sampling intervals  was calculated by  comparing the concentration  means with

sampling to  concentration means without sampling at 10 stations.  The

increasing size of  the RMSE with increasing  sampling interval  indicates  that

one hour sampled out of every 24 is as  large a sampling as should be  used

in treating  a season.

       Table 24.  Summary of Accuracy of Sampling Intervals for Estimating Distribution of
                       Predicted Concentrations Over a Season
Sampling
Interval, Hours
1
2
4
6
8
12
24








Root Mean
Square Error (RMSE), ^'
lig/m
__
2.43
3.70
3.58
7.69
7.94
16.43
Mean, yg/,
150
150
152
148
151
150
158
(a) (RMSE).
               I

           • = V ^y^ • - *• •>
           3     N/	 l,i   J,i
                                     N = No. of Stations (10)
                                     j -Sampling Interval
                                  Y .  . = Seasonal Mean Concentration for i th Station with
                                   J»l
                                    • •  - Sampling Every Hour
                                  X 1 j = Seasonal Mean Concentration for i th Station with
                                        Sampling  Every Hour

4.3.3   Comparisons with Other Studies

      Comparison  of the results with other studies, suggests  that  the use

of variations  in  emission rates improves  the prediction of daily  or seasonal

concentrations  of S02>  Two examples of calculated S02 concentrations from

previous studies  using mean daily or seasonal  emission rates and  observed

S02 concentrations have been reviewed  in  connection with this point.   It may

be noted that  in  both examples the  investigators suggested the  need to  treat

the variability in emission rates.   The first  example derived from Clarke

(1964), is shown  in Figure 33 and illustrates  the distribution  of mean  daily



-------
00
a.



I
a
0)
u
1000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1001
9
8
7
6
S
4
3
2
101
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
11
Cumulative Percentage
2:-. 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 85 90 95 98



































X





/




















S
X



^
/




















f
xx



x'





















REDIC


^^x**"






















TED*
X^

^- — '















•







x
x-

^»x'"
OBSE























x'


RVED























^^
X















,x-

^















x'

X














^^

X















-

x




























CINCINNATI
29 selected days (1962)
ONE STATION (CAMP)






















        Figure 33.  Frequency Distributions of Daily Mean Observed and Predicted Concentrations



-------
concentrations of SCL at the Cincinnati CAMP station for 29 selected
days.  The predicted values were generated using mean daily emission
rates and are generally about twice the observed values.  The second
example was derived from Calder (1970).  Figure 34 shows observed and
predicted (in parenthesis)  mean seasonal concentrations of SO^ for 10
stations in St. Louis.  The ratio of predicted to observed concentra-
tion varies from 2.6 to 4.3 which shows the general  overprediction.
The climatological mean concentrations were computed by summing the
concentrations associated with combinations of six wind speeds, 16
wind directions, and six stability categories with each combination
weighted according to its relative frequency of occurrence; the diffu-
sion parameters used in these calculations are the Pasquill-Gifford
parameters based on stability indexes derived using Turner's adapta-
tion of Pasquill's definitions.  The model assumes a mean climatolog-
ical mixing ceiling.
          Figure 35 shows the observed and predicted frequency distribu-
tion of seasonal concentrations.  The frequency distribution of observed
values is overpredicted by  a factor of 3.   Figure 36 shows  a graphical
comparison of the results for the 10 stations.  It also shows a regres-
sion line of observed concentrations on predicted concentrations deter-
mined by Calder for 40 stations.  This figure shows  that the 10 stations
are representative of the set of 40 stations, and further confirms that
the model overpredicts the St. Louis observations.
          Other investigators who have included consideration of diurnal
variations in emission rates in their analysis have generally obtained

-------
                                                         69
                                                        (238)
                                               • 101
                                                 (260)
                                                         136
                                                         (584)
                     77
                    [318)
                                                 ST. LOUIS
                                         Dec. 1964; Jan., Feb. 1965
                                    Value in parentheses is the prediction
                             I
1
Figure 34.  Seasonal Mean Observed and Predicted Concentrations
    (from Calder, 1970) Using Seasonal Mean Emission Rates

-------
1
 a
<3
1000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1001
9
8
7
6
S
4
3
2
101
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 1
Cumulative Percentage
2'-. 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 85 90 95 98



































	

























P






—




















REE
«*-




_— —




















ICTED
— •



_^-
^^




















X



^
^





















X


/<
'





















/


s
DBSER






















	

X""

,YED
























^— --
















*— •


_. —
















,^


,















^X



^^^•^











ST. LOUIS
Dec. 1964; Jan. , Feb.
TEN STATIONS





























1965




       Figure 35.  Frequency Distribution of Seasonal Mean Observed and Predicted Concentrations

                     Using Seasonal Mean Emission Rates (Data from Calder, 1970)

-------
              300
                                                                                                                                     ST.  LOUIS


                                                                                                                            Dec. 1964; Jan., Feb. 1965
ISJ


 I
              200
        a 8

        1 .2
        3 5
        o 3
        c o
        -a
         
-------
better results.  For example, Miller and Holzworth have computed the
city-wide average concentration for selected early morning and after-
noon two-hour periods in Nashville on 31 selected days.  The frequency
distributions of predicted and observed concentrations obtained from
this analysis are shown in Figures 37 and 38.   The Miller and Holzworth
model is a rather extreme simplification of the Gaussian plume model
for urban diffusion analysis which completely ignores spatial varia-
tions in emission rates by use of a city-wide average.  Therefore,  no
resolution of the spatial distribution of concentrations is possible
with this model.  This model has been recommended as a method of esti-
mating regional air quality where suitable monitoring observations  are
not available and no single source is the principal  cause of pollution
levels (Federal Register, 36, August 14, 1971, Part II).
          Turner, who devised the scheme (based on the degree day con-
cept) for estimating diurnal variations in SCL emission rates in the
Nashville data used by Miller and Holzworth, used a more extensive  set
of the same data to compute 24-hour average concentrations which included
consideration of the diurnal variation in emission rates (Turner 1964).
His results are not reported in enough detail  to construct frequency
distributions; however, he reports that 43.7 percent of his predicted
two-hour concentrations at seven stations were within +0.01  ppm
(about 27 mg/m ) of the observed concentration.  For 24-hour observa-
tions at the same seven stations he found that 58.1  percent of predicted
values were within +_ 0.01 ppm.

-------
bo
I
 A)
1000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1001
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
10 1

g
7

5
4
3
2
11
Cumulative Percentage
2:-. 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 85 90 95 9






































































/

























/
*/
























/
'/'























.
/
X























/
\r
X






















^
j/'/
^ /
/






















^
*T























PRE

x>


















DIG"

OBS


















FED
/
ERVE


















X"
, — -*
D












NASHVILLE
31 Selected Days


(1958-1959)
7 STATIONS







^-

















SO Concentrations
(0400-0600 CST)


31 c.
ises

         Figure 37.  Observed and Predicted Frequency Distributions of Early Morning Concentrations
                                Reported by Miller and Holzworth (1967)

-------
a
o  a
O  ui

«  S
O  "
u  2
1000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
lOOl
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
101
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
11
Cumulative Percentage
2'-. 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 85 90 95 98














































'
























X
/

/






















p
X
/
/
/























REDIC'
^

























FED/
/ ^
7
























^
OBSE

























-^x
RVED
























^
*
























m -*
'Z—






31


SC













.— —
-^

















-^





NASHVH
Selected
(1958-19
7 STATIC
) Concen












^— '






.LE
Days
59)
DNS
trations
(1400-1600 CST)
31 cases































            Figure 38.  Observed and Predicted Frequency Distributions of Afternoon Concentrations

                                 Reported by Miller and Holzworth (1967)

-------
          More recently, Fortak (1969) reported results with a Gaussian
plume type of urban diffusion model.  The frequency distribution of pre-
dicted and observed hourly SCL concentrations at Sites #1  and #4 in
Bremen, Germany, for the 1967-68 heating season are shown  in Figures 39
and 40.  Average daily emission rate estimates were determined by
Fortak for these calculations.  The graphs included represented the
best and the worst agreement obtained by Fortak at four sites.  He
points out that Site #4 was in the vicinity of a large plant, and he
attributes the observed high concentrations to uncontrollable, and
unaccounted for, low-level emissions from the nearby plant.   At Site #1
the agreement between the distribution of predicted and observed
concentrations is almost as close as that obtained in this study for
the St. Louis data.
          The results cited above, and those from this study, show that
the use of temporal variations in SOp in emission rates in concentration
calculations leads to a realistic determination of the frequency distribu-
tion of short-term concentrations over a seasonal period,  as well as a
more accurate estimate of the seasonal mean concentration.

4.4  FINDINGS
          A summary of the preceding results on the validity of the
Gaussian plume type of multiple source urban diffusion model is given
below.  These results are based on the predicted and observed concentra-
tions of SCL at 8 locations in Chicago during January 1967 and 10 stations
in St. Louis during December 1964 to February 1965.  The predictions
used hourly estimates of meteorological  and emission parameters.  The
atmospheric stability was estimated from hourly weather observations

-------
1000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
100 1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
101
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
ll
Cumulative Percentage
2-: 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 85 90 95 98%






































































'
/

























/

























S*
X














































PREDICTED^

^ ^












x|X
•XOBSERV]


































S
-"X
X

D

















/
X -X
>/^




















X
X






















x^














Bremen, Gern








^














any
Heating Season 1967-1968
Site 1





































9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Figure 39.  Observed and Predicted Distributions of Hourly Concentrations
       for Site 1 in Bremen, Germany, Reported by Fortak (1969)

-------
•fc
a.
 y
 a
1000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
100 1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
101
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 1
Cumulative Percentage
2:. 5 10 IS 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 85 90 95 98%




























































































































/
'
























/
X
































OBSEr^


/
/












/
























f£DS
/



f








H(










/
.X"



/
/PI
/







Brem
>ating .









X




x

IEDI








en,
5ea«
Sit









X



X
x

CTEC








Gerrr
an 19
e4









X

^x
>. '
'


)








any
57-1968










^

















9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
9
8
X
6
S
4
3
2
1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
           Figure 40.  Observed and Predicted Frequency Distribution of Hourly Concentrations

                  for Site 4 in Bremen, Germany, Reported by Fortak (1969)

-------
 from an adjacent airport using the McElroy-Pooler diffusion parameters

 based on Turner's definitions of stability categories.  The mixing layer

 ceiling was estimated from radiosonde observations taken twice daily

 from remote locations (100 to 200 miles away).  The wind speed and

 direction were hourly averages of several 3 in St. Louis, 8 in Chicago)

 continuous records.  The emission rates of the largest sources were

 identified and located individually.  For other sources a mean emission

 rate per unit area was estimated for a square gridwork of points with

 a one mile spacing between adjacent points.  Each emission rate was

 related to hourly estimates of space heating and other operating

 requirements.

          The findings are summarized as follows:


          1.   Predicted  long-term (month  or season)  concentrations
averaged over several  locations  are  in  good agreement  with  observed
concentrations.

          2.   Predicted  long-term concentrations  at  individual  locations
show a root-mean-square-error equal  to  about half the  mean  and indicate
a slight tendency to  overestimate more  often than underestimate  observed
concentrations.

          3.   Predicted  short-term (one or two hours)  concentrations  at
individual  stations show larger deviations from observed concentrations
than'do the long-term predictions.   However, over a  period  of  a  month,
or a season,  the  overall  distribution of predicted short-term  concentra-
tions closely approximates  the distribution of observed concentrations.

          4.   Proportionate stratified  sampling is an  effective  method of
selecting a limited set  of  short-term periods  which  adequately define  a
representative distribution of short-term concentrations  in  a  long-term
period.   One  hour out of 24 is a sufficient sample size for  a  three month
period if the selected hour is varied to  include  all hours  of  the day.

          5.   The calm,  or  light wind,  case is not adequately  treated by
the Gaussian  plume type  of  urban diffusion model.   Further  study of
procedures  for applying  the model  to this  type of situation  is  needed.

-------
      Section 5.0




-------
                               Section 5.0
                          SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
          Sensitivity is formally defined as the partial  derivative of
a model's output with respect to its input.   In the case  of complex
models, however, a more practical  definition, which is  often employed
for analytical purposes, is the incremental  change in output resulting
from an incremental change in input.
          In a numerical simulation model  as complex as the one  utilized
in this report, it is not possible to study  all aspects of sensitivity
analytically, nor is it safe to infer sensitivities from  the form of the
Gaussian model, which is the kernel  of the simulation,  because of the
numerous interactions involved.  Proper analyses require  appropriate
numerical exercising of the complete simulation.
          Sensitivity analyses of urban pollution models  have been
reported by Hilst (1970) and Milford, et al. (1970a; 1970b).  Hilst
applied sensitivity analysis concepts in an  example case  study of the
TRC Region Model, developed for the State of Connecticut, which  involved
a combination of a trajectory-oriented Gaussian model with the puff
version for area sources and the plume version for major  point sources.
Hilst's results are of interest, but as he attests, limited in scope by
the case study nature of the analysis.
          The work reported by Milford, et al., deals with the variations
of the model developed for the New York/New  Jersey/Connecticut Air Quality
Region.  The studies which they have reported describe  a  model which
bears a general resemblance to the steady-state plume model implemented

-------
in the study covered in this report.   Their work,  however,  is  very
specifically oriented in form, input, and application  to the greater
New York area, and their reported sensitivity results  focus  largely on
highly specific individual  case examples, rendering useful  generaliza-
tions difficult.   The study in this report attempts to derive  broad-
scale significant sensitivity findings from a generally applicable model.
          This section describes the  work performed to analyze the
sensitivity of the output concentrations of the multiple-source Gaussian
plume diffusion model to model input  parameters.   Important  questions
to be answered by the analysis, which concentrates on  the sensitivity
of the short-term version of the model, with reference to the  longer
term climatological version where appropriate, are presented.   The
parameters and their value ranges are discussed,  the methodology is
described, and the analysis and results are presented.  In  the discussion
of this section,  the broad-scale significant findings, where sensitivity
exists, are presented in summarized form.  Appendix F  contains descrip-
tions and samples of the computer printouts which  give complete listings
of the sensitivity computations.

5.1  ELEMENTS INVESTIGATED
          The principal points which  the sensitivity analysis  addresses
are presented in  question format as follows.  The  analysis was approached
from this point of view in order to focus on questions which are
considered to be  of the greatest practical significance, and the results
are intended to be definitive with regard to these questions.   The
questions are identified in terms of  type of model input, and  each is
subsequently discussed in greater detail in the cited  sections.

-------
          1.   Spatial Variability of Emission Rates.  The question
here concerns the scale of variability in area source emission rates
which can impact significantly on model predictions.  The two considera-
tions of primary interest in this question are the fineness of the grid
used to represent area sources, and the basis used for separating
significant point sources from area sources (Section 5.4.1).

          2.   Vertical Distribution of Area Source Emissions.  This
question concerns the extent to which various vertical distributions
in the assumed emission height, and buoyancy rise, of area source
emissions may affect model predictions (Section 5.4.2).

          3.   Vertical Diffusion Parameters.  This question  addresses
the extent to which variations in the power law functions, which are
used to represent the vertical spread of pollutants with travel  distance,
affect the model outputs (Section 5.4.3).

          4.   Decay Rate.  The question here concerns definition of the
conditions under which this parameter significantly affects outputs
(Section 5.4.4).

          5.   Wind Speed and Hind Profile Power Law.  The question of
model sensitivity to wind speed is normally straightforward,  and becomes
complicated only when a decay rate exists.  For zero decay, the model
sensitivity to wind speed is only slightly complicated by interaction
with the wind profile power law.  Thus, the question of model sensitivity

-------
to both wind speed and the vertical  wind speed profile  power law is
examined (Section 5.4.5).

          6.   Mixing Ceiling.   This question concerns  the  significance
of uncertainties in this parameter (Section  5.4.6).

          7.   Wind Direction.   The  question here  concerns  the  degree
of resolution in wind direction to which the model  output is sensitive
(Section 5.4.7).

          8.  Diurnal Variation in Emission  Rate.   The  main question
here concerns the effect,  on the predicted long-term average concentra-
tions, of any correlation  of diurnal variations in  emission rates with
diurnal variations in  meteorological  conditions (Section 5.4.8).

5.2  PARAMETER RANGES AND COMBINATIONS
          Each of the sensitivity points raised in  Section  5.1  focuses
on the sensitivity of the  model to certain specific model inputs, and
all of the model inputs are incorporated in  one or more of  these questions.
In order to design model sensitivity experiments,  it is necessary to
define a reasonable range  of interest for each model  input  and  to select
combinations of values of all  input  parameters to  use in testing for
sensitivity.  It will be seen that the inputs can  be represented by a
small number of values scattered over the  total range  of values of
interest.
          Sensitivity analysis  in this program is  focussed  on changes
in calculated concentrations which are associated with  changes  in input

-------
for a given set of input values.   In view of the large  number of such
comparisons which are possible in the context of the preceding eight
questions, the first step is to define reasonable ranges  of interest
for each parameter; subsequently, determination  was  made  of which para-
meters have little influence on output over their defined range of
values, and the remaining parameters were analyzed in more detail.
          The initial set of parameters and the  specific  input values
selected for use in the sensitivity analysis are shown  in Table 25.
The values selected were based on the judgement  and experience of the
in-house staff of diffusion meteorologists, as well  as, to some extent,
on the numerical information developed in the course of the validation
study (Section 4.0).  The following comments on  the values selected for
certain of the parameters are in order at this point:
          •    Decay Half-Life:  One obvious choice is  for no decay
               (infinite half-life); the other (30 minute half-life)
               represents a moderately reactive  material.   (A third
               extremely short half-life (5 minutes) was  experimented
               with to a small degree, with results  reflected in
               Section 5.4.3.)
          •    Hind Speed:  The three values are intended to reflect
               light, moderate and strong anemometer-level winds.
          •    Wind Prof i1e Power:  Two values,  arbitrarily chosen as
               depicting the range.
          •    Wind Direction:  (See Sections 5.4.1  and 5.4.7.)
          •    Mixing Ceiling:  A very low value, an intermediate
               (characteristic) value, and a high value.
          •    Piffusion Function and Stabi1ity  C1 ass:  The three
               cases represent extreme atmospheric stability, neutral
               stability, and extreme instability.

-------
                   Table 25.  Sensitivity Parameters,  Ranges and Selected Values
Parameters
METEOROLOGICAL AND
POLLUTANT:
Pollutant Half-Life*
Wind Speed
Wind Profile Power
Wind Direction
Mixing Ceiling
Diffusion Function and
Stability Class


EMISSION AND RECEPTOR:
Number of Point Sources






Area Source Grid Spacing


Distribution of Emission
Heights for Area Sources



Treatment of Diurnal
Variations in Emissions
Receptor Location with
Respect to Source Area



Units


min
m/sec
--
azimuth deg.
m

m



—






miles



—




—

--



Range


0-«>
1-20
0. 1-0. 5
0-360
100-00

--



—










—




—

—



Selected Values


30;oo
2, 6, 18
0.15, 0.3
—
100; 500; 2500

Pasquill Class E
McElroy- Pooler Class D
McElroy-Pooler Class 1

(1) All major sources (51 for
St. Louis)
(2) All with Annual Emissions
within 10% of Largest
Emitter (19 for St. Louis)
(3) None (all aggregated into
area sources)
(1) 0.25
(2) 1
(3) 4

(1) AU at Mean Height
(2) 50% at Mean Height, 25%
at 1/2 Mean Height and
25% at 3/2 Mean Height

(See Section 5.4.8)

(1) Upwind Zone
(2) Central High Emission
Zone
(3) Downwind Zone
*An "infinite" half-life represents a material that is essentially stable, or non-reactive,  in the
 atmosphere,  and corresponds to a zero decay rate.  A 30-minute half-life is equivalent to a decay
 rate of 0.023J/min.

-------
               Number of Point Sources:  See discussion in Section
               5.4.1.
               Area Source Grid Spacing:  See discussion in Section
               5.4.1.
               Distribution of Emission Heights for Area Sources:
               See discussion in Section 5.4.2.
               Treatment of Diurnal Variation in Emissions:  See
               discussion in Section 5.4.8.
               Receptor Location with Respect to Source Area:   See
               discussion in Sections 5.4.1  and 5.4.7.
          In addition to the parameters listed in Table 25,  there  is  a
need to define a selection of basic geographic patterns of emission  rates,
as well as the selection of receptor locations relative to this  pattern
at which to measure sensitivity effects.   It seems reasonable to define
three principal, general situations concerning the relationship  of a
receptor relative to an emission pattern:
          1.   The receptor is in an area  of relatively uniform  emis-
sions with no significantly strong upwind  sources (upwind  receptor).
          2.   The receptor is in an area  of high emission rates
surrounded by noticeably lower upwind emission rates  (as in  the  center
of urban area), (center receptor).
          3.   The receptor is in area of  light or moderate  emissions
with significant upwind sources (downwind  of urban center),  downwind
receptor).
In the validation analysis the relative contribution  to the  total  emis-
sions arising from point sources in contrast to area  sources had already
been defined for the receptor locations which represent sampling stations.
From these results it was noted that, in by far the majority of  the

-------
cases examined, the overall contribution from point sources  was  small.
There were notable exceptions in which the point sources  were the dominant
contributors to particular receptor locations under particular conditions.
The impact of such special situations is examined further in Section  5.4.7.
Meanwhile it was determined that the first order of importance was  to
examine realistic patterns of area source emissions,  in order to assist
in the definition of emission rate patterns and the associated receptor
locations for use in the sensitivity analysis.
          The area source emission rates for each square  mile and each
hour in the 2036-hour St. Louis data sample had been  previously  stored
on magnetic tape for use in the validation analysis.   These data were
retrieved and used to generate hourly contour maps of the area source
emission rates, which were then studied to determine  whether consistent
patterns were present.   Three sample maps are shown in Figures 41
through 43.  These represent relatively extreme variations in emission
patterns over the 89-day period.  These figures illustrate the general
observation that, although the magnitude of emissions at  any point may
vary by a factor of as  much as ten, the distribution  of the  pattern
remains relatively consistent.  No outstanding variation  in  the  general
shape of the pattern was noted with time of day or day of week.   As a
result, it was decided that the three receptor location characteristics
described above (upwind, center and downwind) could be reasonably
represented by a single emission pattern with three such  receptor loca-
tions.  The selected pattern is that shown in Figure  42.   The wind

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SYMBOL   RATE, G/SEC
  0    0.0   TO 0.01
  1    0.01+ TO 0.03
  2    0.03+ TO 0.10
  3    0.10+ TO 0.30
  4    0.30+ TO 1.00
                   SYMBOL    RATE,  G/SEC
                     5     1.00+  TO   3.00
                     6     3.00+  TO  10.00
                     7   10.00+  TO  30.00
                     8   30.00+  TO 100.00
                     9   OVER  100.00
          40
          39
          38
          37
          36
          35
          34
          33
          32
          31
          30
          29
        N 28
        0 27
        R 26
        T 25
        H 24
          23
        C 22
        0 21
        0 20
        R 19
        D 18
        I 17
        N 16
        A 15
          14
          13
          12
          11
          10
           9
           8
           7
           6
           5
           4
           3
           2
           1
T
E
            EAST COORDINATE
              123
     123456789012345678901234567890

     01122222222222022466667(O66>5433
     022221212222222223N77676^432333
     2222222222000222224*6.167*53333
     22222222220001223222222$6*4333
     2222222222333222222202236D0333
     222222222233333322220022^11333
     022220203323333333000005502224
     222203233323334444400021033344
     25S033433333444444330023333444
     5/70344443334444445430034333444
     5^60224444445544444450444440444
     2200233544!
     2033445544X
     2333555<
     3233,555!
     3233445,<
     333344 5\
     2S333344545«
     4333443434!
     33334443357
     333345444!
     323433335y667767"
     323313356667667/J
             i55443341444444344
             .5544(0204444433334
              	1004444443334
                       :3443044
                       .4333034
                      >43033344
                     '544333435
                       04444^7
                         \554t7
                         5545?
                         '55555
                            544
    ..  .    „   ^.  ,76460454
44449^^5 555^67777645 ^6A6/5i554
444443*6j5555,666776r045445i  t  	
455433554/SS6667/0344445433$.666
344334544V5^5.6€/254544433333>76
3333344444444>?4445444333333^
33334444444554200feK443333333l
33333344444443204444433333334!
333333344444431134444333333033
333333444344430444444434433333
333334334433330044444434533333
333333353334424445544333333333
333333333333300044444433333333
333333333343233444444333333333
333333333232332333344433330333
333333333323233333344443333333
333333333233303333344444334333
 FIGURE 41.
     ST. LOUIS AREA SOURCE EMISSION  RATES,
     1AM DECEMBER 2, 1964.

-------
f Receptor Location

SYMBOL   RATE* G/SEC
  0    0.0   TO  0.01
  1    0.01+ TO  0.03
  2    0.03+ TO  0.10
  3    0.10+ TO  0.30
  4    0.30+ TO  1.00
               SYMBOL    RATE,  G/SEC
                 5     1.00+ TO   3.00
                 6     3.00+ TO  10.00
                 7    10.00+ TO  30.00
                 8    30.00+ TO 100.00
                 9    OVER 100.00
                     EAST  COORDINATE
                       12         3
             123456789012345678901234567890
          40
          39
          38
          37
          36
          35
          34
          33
          32
          31
          30
          29
        N 28
        0 27
        R 26
        T 25
        H 24
          23
        C 22
        0 21
        0 20
        R 19
        D 18
        I 17
        N 16
        A 15
        T 14
        E 13
          12
          11
          10
           9
           8
           7
           6
           5
           4
           3
           2
           1
 FIGURE 42.
                             33
                            444
                          54333
                           4333
                          00333
                           1333
                          '03224
                          44445
02233322333233022'
03333232333333332:v
333333333300033332N
33333333330002333322;
22333223223333223333022]
33332233333\J33333222002;
033220203335333333000001
33220433443334444440002!
35£fl44444444V;44444440024444444
676/45554335444455430044444444
^vltf 2344445 5/^44454(5)045 5550444
320123365496^5543442455554444
20445 5 5 54>776$5 54/7)304444544444
                   '005544554444
4344b^66677666Yr7rOOZ66>4554044
434349i66777667Y7fcOO?78$>4444045
4444446^4»5666"
m4434555>
^3335 54545)6 ^B98§88(7 7/520555*
333355444«77^aa8«8V7S&«^55!
444455555>6776^8ere88&^8>67555!
43444443077i777888f6j69a77556^5
33444445Jb77(|)77e8a8$7p89'>5^5555

4444<6666.6666777|8/^p52<77^66^55
45A4 5T&&S2 6 7 7 7vB[$ 5 5 5 5\^S?>
4^^34,6^5^66767^0465555444X667"
454434(d555;^67>254554444444&77
44444445555597/5445^444444444476
4444444444 5 5&8200fe)4V44444443«>J
4443334444455420554V444444445T
433333444444433344444444444044
33333344444443055544V444434444
33334444444443 00 5 5 544445(6)44444
333444454444425555554444444444
334444444344300055555^44444444
344444444444244455555V44444444
344444444342 3 33 3 334 5 5«4440444
344444444323333343344IR4444444
                  L2fc7754044444
                    '80554445*
                         Wind Direction

ST. LOUIS AREA  SOURCE  EMISSION RATESt

-------
SYMBOL   RATEt G/SEC
  0    0.0   TO 0.01
  1    0.01+ TO 0.03
  2    0.03+ TO 0.10
  3    0.10+ TO 0.30
  4    0.30+ TO 1.00
                    SYMBOL    RATE,  G/SEC
                      5     1.00+  TO   3.00
                      6     3.00+  TO  10.00
                      7    10.00+  TO  30.00
                      8    30.00+  TO 100.00
                      9    OVER  100.00
  40
  39
  38
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  32
  31
  30
  29
N 28
0 27
R 26
T 25
H 24
  23
C 22
0 21
0 20
R 19
D 18
I 17
N 16
A 15
  14
  13
  12

  10
   9
   8
   7
   6
   5
   4
   3
   2
   1
                    EAST COORDINATE
                       123
             123456789012345678901234567890

             022222222222220224/f666($CrT6u&'5533
             022222222222222223x77776\2452444
             222222222200022222WxZ4>553333
             222222222200022232222226.764333
             222222222233322232220223]6p0333
             222222222233333322220022/60333
             022220203333333333000004^03224
             222204233423344444400021033444
             255033444434444444440023333444
                445554334444445430044343444
                23444455A554444450455550444
             2201233^\5436'555543443455554444
             2033553655^6&/6)554/4404444433444
             23335596l§A776/a5JJ56)004444444434
             33335566666666T77/602xf£ifo4444044
             333345fe677766777aOOfl78/64444044
              333445^6676755297644044344
     A333454545y67
     3333454447
                           88a77X5205544/67
                             988\76#55*554(77
T
E
                    5fe767777j888/77|8
                     fe67677"388>»555ii£7>254544444444)b76
             3433445545555^4445444444444476
             3333455444556^200(6)!f4444444435s7
             33333344444553204544434444445!
             333333444444443344444444444033
             333333444444430555444444434444
             333344334444430055444445(S>4444
             333444454444425555554444444444
             333444444333300055554444444444
             344444444443233455555444444444
             334444444342333333455434440444
             334444444323333343344444444444
             344444444233303333344444444444
 FIGURE 43.
     ST. LOUIS AREA  SOURCE  EMISSION RATES,
     7AM DECEMBER 3,  1964.

-------
direction was defined to be as shown (changes in direction are examined
in Section 5.4.7), and the three solid circles were selected as receptor
locations representing upwind, center (high emission), and downwind
receptor zones.
          The sensitivity analysis was therefore performed in the context
of this representative background pattern of emissions, and the para-
meters listed in Table 25 were varied against this  background.

5.3  METHODOLOGY
          The methodology followed is a straightforward manipulative
one, in which changes in input are used to define changes in output.
The output changes are then examined as relative or absolute changes
and ranked to determine those which are most significant.  Short-term
concentrations are emphasized in the analysis, and the sensitivity of
long-term concentrations is addressed in the text as appropriate.  The
first step in the analysis consisted of computer runs representing
a full factorial replication of all combinations of the inputs identified
in Table 25 which are relevant to short-term concentrations.  This
includes all but wind direction and the magnitude of diurnal variations
in emissions.  The total number of combinations is  5832 (i.e., 2 pollutant
half-lives x3 wind speeds x2 wind profile powers x3 mixing ceilings
x3 diffusion functions x3 sets of point sources x3 area source grid
spacings x2 sets of emission heights for area sources x3 receptor locations)
Within this total, for each model input, two to three thousand sets of
variations (depending on.the input parameter involved) in model output
were therefore generated for each specified variation in input.

-------
          Inputs which show little output variation over all  sets,  or
almost all sets, were accordingly identified as insensitive inputs, and
variation in these insensitive parameters was not considered further.
Each of these is discussed in Section 5.4.  The selection of a criterion
which would represent a significant change in output over a range of
input values was governed by the validation findings.  As a result of
those findings, it was decided that input changes must generate at least
a 50 percent change in output for the range of input values considered
in order to qualify as a significantly sensitive input.   Where signifi-
cant change was found, the analysis was pursued in greater depth, as is
described in Section 5.4.
5.4  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS
          In the following discussion, the results of the analyses of
the computer runs described in Section 5.3 are presented in detail.  The
analytical procedure for defining the impact of each input parameter
consists of identifying "sensitive" changes in calculated concentrations
resulting when an input parameter is varied.   A "sensitive" change  is
defined to be a change in the input parameter which results in a greater
than 50 percent change in the calculated concentration.   Such cases are
then subjected to more detailed analysis.

5.4.1  Spatical Variability of Emission Rates
          Urban diffusion modelers usually identify only the  most
significant point sources, and obtain reasonably accurate estimates of
emission rates for these sources.   Emissions  from other  sources  are

-------
treated as uniformly distributed over a segment of area,  and estimates
of the emission rate per unit area are made for such convenient squares
or blocks of the urban area.  A square mile is  a frequently used block
size.
          The actual computational treatment employed in  evaluating  the
effects of these selected block sizes on urban  air pollutant concentra-
tions may sometimes involve further assumptions regarding the distribu-
tion of source within each block (e.g., use of  point sources, normal
line source, virtual point source, or uniform area source concepts to
represent each block mathematically.)
          In this study the overall area source input data are represented
by a gridwork of point locations, each with its own emission rate per
unit area, and thus describing a smooth continuous surface (in the
mathematical sense) of area source emission rates.  In the program
computations, linear interpolation between points is used to define  the
emission rate as a continuous function of position in evaluating the
effects of area source emissions.  For sensitivity analysis purposes
variation in the fineness of the area source representation is accomplished
by changing the spacing between grid points and the corresponding block
size in the area source emission inventory.  The two questions of concern
here are, What is the real spatial variability  in emission rates? and,
How accurately should the real spatial variability be reflected in the
model?  Since the real spatial variability is not known,  except as
estimated for square mile blocks, this parameter has been hypothesized
for testing sensitivity.   The assumption has been made that when a unit
square mile area is divided into 16 quarter-mile squares, the emission

-------
rate per unit area for each subdivision will  be approximately  normally
distributed (in a statistical  sense)  about a  mean  value  with a standard
deviation equal to one-half the mean.   In the sensitivity  analysis,  mean
values for square mile areas were used with a random number generator
to define emission rates appropriate  to the smaller quarter-mile  squares.
Standard IBM computer routines for random number generation and inverse
normal function evaluation were used.
          The basic computer model  defined in Section 3.0  and  the
selected set of S02 emission data drawn from  the St.  Louis  data sample
were used to test whether changing the grid resolution (1  mile) to  a
finer (0.25 mile) or a coarser (4 mile) mesh  had a significant effect
on the calculations.
          As a further sensitivity test, the  effect of various levels
of aggregation of point source emission data  into  the general  area
source emission rate was examined.  This was  done  by comparing calcula-
tions when all (51), some (19), or none of the major sources were merged.
The point source emission rates associated with the selected area source
emission pattern are listed in Table  26.  In  addition to the two  extreme
cases of merging none or all of the point sources, the effect  of  merg-
ing just those points, whose emission rates were less than 10  percent
of the largest emission rate,  was examined (i.e.,  merging  all  but the
highest 19 emission rates).  The location of the point sources relative
to the three sensitivity receptor locations is shown in  Figure 44.   In
order to examine the effect of large  point sources on the  center  receptor
location, the wind direction was shifted as indicated in Figure 44  to
see what effect that would have on the sensitivity results.

-------
Table 26.  Ranked List of St.
        Rates for 1300 LST,
Louis Point Source Emission
December 5, 1964
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Identi-
fication
Number
44
48
49
47
30
51
43
50
45
36
37
46
42
8
4
31
41
22
2
6
SO2
Emission
Rate, g/sec
2680
1560
1310
1280
1050
752
706
604
601
591
586
568
529
488
433
384
353
305
277
191
Rank
21
22
23
24
25
26
24
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
No.
35
11
27
32
26
1
20
14
33
24
23
19
40
29
3
39
12
21
9
34
Rate
188
174
163
120
115
92
91
77
77
68
61
49
43
40
36
35
33
33
29
22
Rank
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51









No.
10
17
16
25
5
18
13
28
7
15
38









Rate
19
19
18
18
17
15
11
11
9
4
0










-------
43
35
30
25   _
20
15
10
 11
10  Point Source
   Receptor
                            10
                               15
20
                                                                25
                                                                  30
     Figure 44.  Location of Point Sources in St.  Louis Relative to Wind Directions and
                       Receptor Locations in Sensitivity Analysis

-------
          Parenthetically, it will  be seen  in  Section  5.4.2  and  5.4.5
that, when the initial  large-scale  screening analysis  was  performed,
two parameters were immediately demonstrated to  have only  insignificant
effects on the output concentrations.   These two,  the  vertical distribu-
tion of area source emissions (5.4.3)  and the  profile  power  (5.4.5), were
accordingly eliminated from the analysis  in considering  sensitivity to
other inputs; at the same time, it  was found possible  to reduce  the
number of mixing ceilings considered (Section  5.4.6) from  three  (100,
500 and 2500m) to two (100 and 500m) for most  of the detailed  comparisons.
Thus, the number of combinations considered in this section  was  reduced
from 5832 to 972 (i.e., two pollutant half-lives x3 wind speeds  xl wind
profile power x2 mixing ceilings x3 diffusion  parameters x3  sets  of
point sources x3 area grid spacings xl area source emission  height
x3 receptor locations).  Of these,  324 represent the effect  of a changing
grid mesh size as a function of meteorological conditions  in the presence
of the standard of 51 individually  identified  point sources.   When the
324 are examined in detail, almost  half of  the cases (141  cases  or 47%)
show significant changes in concentration (40% change) when  the  one-
and four-mile spacings  are compared.  Similarly, 78 cases  (24%)  show
show significant changes when the 1- and the 0.25-grid sizes were
compared.  When a shift in wind direction was  considered,  as shown in
Figure 44, the number of sets yielding significant changes with  a change
in grid mesh size was reduced slightly.
          These results show that averaging area source  emission rates
over areas larger than  1 square mile can  lead  to significant errors in
estimated pollutant concentrations.  Furthermore,  if the standard

-------
deviation in emission rates of quarter mile  squares  (about 6 city blocks)
is of the order of 50 percent of the mean  over  a  square mile area, (as
postulated in the beginning of this  section), then even the use of square
mile average emission rates can lead to significant  errors in estimated
pollutant concentrations.
          Now, considering the impact of merging  point sources into the
area sources, we recall  that this examination focuses primarily on the
overall  impact of such changes, rather than  on  the fine scale details
of effects on specific receptors in  the vicinity  of  significant point
sources.  The latter aspect is dealt with  by Mil ford, et al. (1970a),
and, because of its wind direction dependence,  in Section 5.4.7 of this
report.   In the broader context, then, the following findings apply.
For the  smaller grid sizes (1 and 0.25 miles) only a negligible number
(1-4%) of the cases show significant changes when the number of individ-
ual point sources is reduced from 51  to 19,  and then to zero.  For the
coarse 4-mile grid, we find 4 percent of the cases showing significant
concentration changes when the 19-source case is  compared to the
51-source case, increasing to 18 percent when the "no-point-sources-
considered" case is thus compared.
          Therefore, we see that the broad-scale  concentration picture
is little affected either by treating individually,  or by merging,
various  numbers of point sources when the  area  source grid scale is of
the order of 1 mile or smaller; however, with a larger grid scale (of
the order of 4 miles), failure to take into  account  at least the main
point sources individually can cause problems.  The  4-mile grid

-------
dimension was already questionable, of course,  from the previously
stated findings on grid size alone.
5.4.2  Vertical Distribution of Area Source Emissions
          Area source emissions of SOp consist  of a large  variety of
individual sources including stores, small  plants, apartment buildings
and small single and multi-family homes,  to mention a  few  of the  more
common types.  Since the emissions from these sources  are  primarily
contained in burned fuel exhaust, the emissions are hot.   As a result,
the emissions are released from a variety of heights with  a variety of
plume rise effects.  Although it is convenient  to treat all  emissions
from a particular area as emanating from the same height,  it may  be
unrealistic to do so.  Various devices may be employed to  simulate
the vertical distribution, such as the use of multiple area source
heights or the assumption of a vertical dimension in the initial  plume.
          An initial vertical distribution of pollutants has been
simulated in this study by using multiple emission heights, and allo-
cating the pollutant emission rate among  those  selected heights.   In the
sensitivity analysis, the results obtained by allocating 25 percent of
the area emission rate to a height of one-half the mean emission  height,
and 25 percent to one and one-half times  the mean emission height
(leaving 50% emitted at emission height), are compared with those when
all emissions in an area are at the same  height.   In terms of the initial
set of 5832 input combinations there were 2916  pairs of such comparisons.
In none of these was the.concentration resulting  from  one  distribution
50 percent greater than from the other.  In fact, only in  the case of a

-------
combination of high decay rate, low wind speed,  and stable  diffusion
parameters, did one exceed the other by more than  25 percent.   In
general, the difference between the vertical  distributions  was  negligible.
As a result, in additional calculations, all  emissions  in any given area
source were treated as emanating from a single height.

5.4.3  Vertical Diffusion Parameters
          One way of expressing a basic hypothesis  (the  narrow plume
concept), which was found to be acceptable in the model  implementation
described in Section 3.0, is that the scale of variability  in  emission
rates (i.e., crosswind distance between significant changes  in emissions)
is large relative to the scale of variability in plume concentrations
(i.e., the diffusion parameter a ).   Furthermore, as  was seen  in
Section 5.4.1, the contribution of point sources relative to that  from
area sources is significant only a small percentage of the  time in terms
of the broad concentration picture.   As a result, the crosswind diffusion
parameter is of only minor interest  in the model.  The impact  of atmos-
pheric turbulence and stability is manifested primarily  in  the vertical
diffusion description.
          The critical effect of choice of diffusion  parameters for a
"one-class change" in stability for the basic plume equation (single
point source) is illustrated in Figure 45.  This figure  shows  normalized
concentrations (xu/Q) along the plume axis, as a function of downwind
distance, from a point source at a height of 20 meters.   The concentration
is shown for the four combinations of two mixing-layer ceiling heights,
100 meters and 1000 meters, and two  sets of diffusion parameters.   One
set corresponds to stable conditions using the E class of the  Pasquill

-------
A
frrn
                                10
                                 -4
                               10
                                 .-5
                           rt
                           a
                           a
                          "0
                          
-------
parameters; the other set corresponds to the McElroy-Pooler (1968)
parameters based on the neutral  Turner D stability category.   The  con-
centrations vary by a factor of 10 for the two sets of diffusion para-
meters when the mixing ceiling is only 100 meters  and vertical  diffusion
is thus severely restricted.
          From an analysis conducted separately from the general sensi-
tivity study, the sensitivity of the model to the  choice of a  system of
diffusion parameters is further illustrated in Figure 46.   Model predic-
tions for a three-week portion of the 89-day set of St.  Louis  data  were
made using first the McElroy-Pooler system of diffusion  parameters  based
on the Turner stability classification system.  The predictions were
then repeated using the Pasquill system and Turner's stability criteria.
The resulting frequency distributions of predicted 2-hour concentration
are plotted along with the observed distribution.   The distribution using
the Pasquill-Turner system yields concentrations which are 40  to 70
percent higher than the McElroy-Pooler system for  corresponding fre-
quencies.  This sensitivity examination is somewhat unusual  in that it
represents the effect of changing all stability inputs from one set to
another.
          A more detailed examination of the effect of variations  in
the vertical  diffusion parameter (a ) is presented in Table 27. These
values were selected from the extensive set of combinations of model
inputs used in the general sensitivity analysis.  They illustrate  the
complexity of the interrelationships of diffusion  parameters with  decay
constant, wind speed and mixing ceiling.  The most noticeable  effect

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.8
 00
 a"
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 o
 a
1000
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1001
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
101
9
8
7
6
S
4
3
2
11
Percentage
2:-. 5 10 15 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 SS 90 95 98%










































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9
8
7
6
S
4
3
2
1
9
8
6
S
4
3
2
1
9
8
7
6
S
4
3
2
        Figure 46.  Comparison of Distributions of Two-Hour Model Predictions with Observations
          Using Two Different Systems for Assigning Diffusion Parameters and St.  Louis Data Set
                                      for Ten Stations Combined

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                Table 27.  Changes in Predicted Concentrations Resulting from
                         Changes in the Vertical Diffusion Parameter
Recpetor
Location
Center
Center
Center
Center
Center
Center
Upwind
Center
Downwind
Center
Center
Center
Downwind
Downwind
Downwind
Downwind
Downwind
Downwind
Half-Life
No Decay
No Decay
No Decay
30 Min.
30 Min.
30 Min.
No Decay
No Decay
No Decay
No Decay
No Decay
30 Min.
No Decay
No Decay
No Decay
*5 Min.
*5 Min.
*5 Min.
Wind
Speed, m/sec
2
6
18
2
6
18
2
2
2
6
18
6
2
6
18
2
6
18
Mixing
Ceiling, m
100
100
100
100
100
100
500
500
500
500
500
500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
. 2500
Concentrations (/ig/m3) as a Function
of Diffusion Parameters
Pasquill,
Class E
1259
547
182
1146
478
174
12
1635
1526
545
182
476
1629
543
181
3
4
14
McElroy-
Pooler,
Class D
1207
402
134
819
347
127
3
703
440
234
78
214
200
67
22
3
2
2
McElroy-
Pooler,
Class 1
1274
425
142
850
364
134
2
520
525
173
58
158
113
38
13
2
1
1
* A small sample of computer calculation runs was run using a very large decay (5-minute half-life).

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is the interaction between mixing ceiling and the diffusion  parameter.
Under a low mixing ceiling (100m) differences resulting  from changes
in a  are minimal, while under a high mixing ceiling (2500m)  the  dif-
fusion parameter differences yield large differences in  predicted
concentrations.
          The results presented here indicate that,  except in the case
of a very low mixing ceiling, the variations in  diffusion parameter
categories can result in large variations in predicted concentrations.
Uncertainty exists, both in defining differences in  stability categories
through suitable meteorological measurements, and in relating those
stability characterisitcs to specific values of  diffusion parameters.
In view of the demonstrated sensitivity of the model to  changes  in the
diffusion parameter values, there is a need to develop a more definitive
system which relates diffusion parameters to objectively definable
meteorological characteristics.

5.4.4  Pollutant Half-Life
          The effect of pollutant half-life due  to atmospheric removal
processes on short-term model (one-hour) concentrations  was  examined
to determine whether it was significant, and, if so, under what  conditions
it was most significant.  A total of 486 pairs of model  inputs repre-
senting no decay and a one-half hour half-life (486  of each)  were
compared to examine this question.   These consisted  of the 972 selected
combinations discussed in Section 5.4.1.
          From these pairs it is found that a 30-minute  half-life (a
decay rate of 0.0231/min) causes a significant reduction in  concentration

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in 45 percent of the cases.  The most pronounced of these many cases  are
associated with relatively light wind speeds (e.g., 2 m/sec),  and a
receptor location which is located significantly downwind of the high
emission area.  The 30-minute half-life resulted in concentration
reductions by a factor of 50 (98%) in the most extreme case.   A selected
tabulation showing variations in the effect of the decay rate  with
receptor location and wind speed is given in Table 28, for a 100-meter
mixing ceiling with the Pasquill Class E (stable)  diffusion parameters
and for a 500-meter mixing ceiling with the McElroy-Pooler Class 1
(unstable) diffusion parameters.
          The results show that the existence of a noticeable  depletion
process will have a significant effect on concentrations in the low wind
situation.  This effect will be especially pronounced downwind of high
emission rate areas, where the effects are noticeable even at  high wind
speeds.

5.4.5  Wind Speed and Profile Power Law
          The sensitivity of the model to wind speed measured  in the  city
was divided into two components:  the wind speed at a reference height
of 20.8 meters (a convenient and representative height which corresponded
to some available data), and the power which defines  the vertical profile
of wind speed according to the relationship:
          u= U] ( £) P                                              (41)
where
          u = wind speed.at height h
         u-, = reference wind speed at height z-,
          p = power which is a function of atmospheric stability.

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                  Table 28.  Model Concentrations With and Without a 30-Minute Decay Half-Life for Selected Combinations of Model Inputs
                                                                                                                                    (1)
a. Comparisons When the Mixing Ceiling is 100 m and the Diffusion Parameters are Pasquill, Class E

With 30 Min.
Half-Life
Without
Decay
Model Concentrations (/Ag/m^) for Indicated Receptor Location, Wind Speed and Decay
Upwind
2 m/sec
7
11
6 m/sec
3
4
18 m/sec
1
1
Center
2 m/sec
1146
1259
6 m/sec
478
547
18 m/sec
174
182
Downwind
2 m/sec
41
2061
6 m/sec
145
687
18 m/sec
134
229
b. Comparisons When the Mixing Ceiling is 500 m and the Diffusion Parameters are McElroy-Pooler, Class 1

With 30 Min.
Half- Life
Without
Decay
Model Concentrations (ju,g/m3) for Indicated Receptor Location, Wind Speed and Decay
Upwind
2 m/sec
1
2
6 m/sec
1
1
18 m/sec
0
0
Center
2 m/sec
412
520
6 m/sec
158
173
18 m/sec
56
58
Downwind
2 m/sec
12
525
6 m/sec
41
175
18 m/sec
35
58
tn
01
 i
             (1)  All Concentrations were Computed Using the St. Louis Data with 51 Point Sources,  an Area Grid Mesh of 0. 25 Miles, One Area Source


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          In the initial set of  5832 combinations of model  inputs  defined
for the sensitivity analysis there were 2916 pairs of comparisons  in
which all model inputs were identical  except that the power varied from
0.15 to 0.30.  In none of these comparisons did the resulting concentra-
tions vary by as much as 10 percent.   As a result, this  parameter  was
eliminated from further sensitivity consideration and a  value of 0.15
was adopted as the standard value.
          In the absence of decay and plume rise the insensitivity of
concentrations to the power law parameter makes it clear that the  model
concentration is inversely proportional to wind speed.   This can also
be clearly seen in the model formulations.  If the wind  speed is constant
for all emission sources (no power law effect) it can be taken outside
the integral of Equation (9) and the  summation in Equation  (8) and
becomes a common factor in the summation of Equation (10).   However, the
inclusion of a decay constant complicates the relationship.   At the
upwind and center receptor locations  the effect of decay is  to slightly
reduce the inverse relationship.  At  the downwind location,  the existence
of decay causes a reversal in the wind speed relationship over the light
to moderate wind speed range (2 to 6  m/sec).  These effects  are demon-
strated by the results presented in Table 29.
          The modeling difficulties encountered when the wind speed is
of the order of 2 m/sec and less have been discussed in  Section 4.2.3
of the validation analysis.  To this  must also be added  the  well known
measurement problems associated with  obtaining a representative value
of the urban wind speed in light wind cases.  While this is  an infre-
quent occurrence (for the time periods reported in Section  4.0, winds

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                           Table 29.  Model Concentrations as a Function of Wind Speed With a 30-Minute
                                   Decay Half-Life for Selected Combinations of Model Inputs (*)
a. Comparisons When the Mixing Ceiling is 100 m
With Wind
Speed ofi
2 m/sec
6 m/sec
18 m/sec
Model Concentrations (jitg/m^
Pasquill, Class E
Upwind
7
3
1
Center
1146
478
174
Downwind
41
145
134
for Indicated Diffusion Parameters, Receptor Location and Wind Speed
McElroy-Pooler, Class D
Upwind
4
2
1
Center
819
347
127
Downwind
37
147
136
McElroy-Pooler, Class 1
Upwind
4
2
1
Center
850
364
134
Downwind
43
162
147
b. Comparisons When the Mixing Ceiling is 500 m
With Wind
Speed of:
2 m/sec
6 m/sec
18 m/sec
Model Concentrations (jug/m
Pasquill, Class E
Upwind
7
3
1
Center
1143
476
173
Downwind
36
109
100
for Indicated Diffusion Parameters, Receptor Locations and Wind Speed
McElroy-Pooler, Class D
Upwind
2
1
0
Center
554
214
76
Downwind
11
32
29
McElroy-Pooler, Class 1
Upwind
1
1
0
Center
412
158
56
Downwind
12
41
35
(1)  All Concentrations were Computed Using the St. Louis Data with 51 Point Sources, an Area Grid Mesh of 0. 25 Miles, One Area Source

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were 2 m/sec and less in St.  Louis 1.5% of the time,  and in  Chicago,
6% of the time), it remains a subject for further study from both  the
modeling and the measurement points of view.
5.4.6  Mixing Ceiling
          The sensitivity of model concentrations to  changes in  the
mixing ceiling was examined using mixing ceilings of  100,  500 and
2500 meters.  Effects associated with 486 pairs of comparisons of  100-
and 500-meter ceiling heights were examined based on  the 972 input
combinations obtained as described in Section 5.4.1.   The most pronounced
influence was observed for diffusion parameters associated with  unstable
meteorological conditions (McElroy, Class 1).  The least pronounced
influence was observed for diffusion parameters associated with  stable
meteorological conditions (McElroy-Pooler, Class 1).   The least  pronounced
locations where minimal  travel from the principal effective  source region
was involved.  These effects  may be clearly discerned in the selected
results listed in Table  30.  In addition to the 100-and 500-meter  mixing
ceilings, results from a 2500-meter ceiling have been added  for  the
downwind receptor.  These results show that under stable conditions  the
increased mixing ceiling has  no effect, but under neutral  and unstable
conditions a noticeable  effect occurs.  These results suggest that,  at
downwind locations where significant travel from the  primary emission
area is involved, the concentration is nearly inversely proportional to
the mixing ceiling.   With increasingly stable diffusion parameters this
effect is reduced until  with  the stable type of diffusion parameter  the
effect of the mixing ceiling is negligible.

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                                          Table 30.  Model Concentrations as a Function of Mixing Ceiling With a Wind
                                                Speed of 6 m/sec for Selected Combinations of Model Inputs '  '
a. Comparisons When there is No Decay
With Mixing
Ceiling ofc
100m
500 m
2500 m
Model Concentrations (/tg/m^) for Indicated Diffusion Parameters, Receptor Location and Mixing Ceiling
Pasquill, Class E
Upwind
4
4
	
Center
587
545
	
Downwind
687
509
509
McElroy-Pooler, Class D
Upwind
3
2
---
Center
402
234
—
Downwind
698
147
67
McElroy-Pooler, Class 1
Upwind
3
1
	
Center
425
173
—
Downwind
748
175
38
b. Comparisons When the Decay Half- Life is 30 Minutes
With Mixing
Ceiling of:
100m
500 m
Model Concentrations (/ig/m^) for Indicated Diffusion Parameters, Receptor Location and Mixing Ceiling
Pasquill, Class E
Upwind
3
3
Center
478
476
Downwind
145
109
McElroy-Pooler, Class D
Upwind
2
1
Center
347
214
Downwind
147
32
McElroy-Pooler, Class 1
Upwind
2
1
Center
364
158
Downwind
162
41
01
              (1)  All Concentrations were Computed Using the St. Louis Data with 51 Point Sources,  an Area Source Grid Mesh of 0. 25 Miles, One Area

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          In general, the results obtained indicate that the  pollutant
concentrations are approximately inversely proportional  to  the  mixing
ceiling (as defined in these calculations) under conditions which  reflect
greatest sensitivity.  Under such conditions this result is in  agree-
ment with the predictions of a box model, in which the  pollutant  is
uniformly dispersed in the vertical.   Under stable conditions,  or  when
the predominant pollutant travel distances are small, the model is less
sensitive to the mixing ceiling.  Under the defined sensitive conditions
the model is thus subject to prediction errors associated with  inac-
curacies in mixing ceiling estimates.   Inaccuracies will  occur  in  the
presently used, rather indirect methods by which hourly variations in
ceiling heights must be estimated with currently available  meteorological
data.
5.4.7  Wind Direction
          The influence of wind direction is most critical  with regard
to specific receptor locations which  may, or may not be,  influenced by
a strong upwind source, depending on  small variations in  wind direction.
Thus, receptor locations in the center of a strong emission area  are
equally affected by all wind directions, while locations  outside  a
strong emission area are strongly influenced by whether they  are  directly
downwind of the high emission area.
          The effect of various possible errors in wind direction  on
short-term concentrations was tested  using the emission data  discussed
in Section 5.2.  The effect of errors  in the wind direction estimate
of 3, 10 and 45 degrees was examined  for the two wind directions  shown
previously in Figure 44.  The error was allowed to vary to  either side

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of the true direction, and the absolute values  of the  resulting  errors
in concentration were averaged for summarizing  purposes.   Resultant
concentrations were evaluated at the three selected receptor locations
shown in Figure 44, using combinations  of the following  parameter  values:
               Parameter
          wind speed
          mixing ceiling
          diffusion parameters

          decay half-life
          wind profile exponent
          number of point sources
          area source grid spacing
          distribution of area
          source emission heights
        Value
2, 6 and 18 m/sec
100 and 500 meters
Pasquill Class E;
McElroy-Pooler Class D;
McElroy-Pooler Class 1
no decay
0.15
51
0.25 miles

all at 30 meters
          Table 31 contains selected results for the case where all
sources (area and point) are considered, and the wind is  first taken to
be from 349° (Table 31 a) (few large upwind point sources; see Figure 44),
and then from  020° (Table 31b) (many large upwind point  sources).   The
other fixed conditions are a neutral atmosphere stability and a 500  meter
mixing ceiling.  The results for the 349-degree direction (Table 31a)
demonstrate the variations in model concentration which can occur with
various values of wind error, and show the change in effect of such  an
error depending upon the specific receptor location considered.  Errors
can go as high as about 25 percent at the central receptor, and up to

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              Table 31.  Model Concentrations with Various Degrees of Error in the Wind Direction Estimate for Selected Combinations of Model Inputs (1)
a. Comparisons when the Wind Direction is 349 (See Figure 44)

Model Concentration:
No Wind Error
Absolute Error in Mo del Concentration:
' With 3 Degree Wind Error
10 Degree Wind Error
45 Degree Wind Error
Model Concentrations (/tg/m ) and Absolute Errors for Indicated Receptor Location and Wind Speed
Upwind
2 m/sec
3
0
1
28
6 m/sec
1
0
0
9
18 m/sec
0
0
0
3
Center
2 m/sec
603
76
73
143
6 m/sec
201
25
24
48
18 m/sec
67
8
8
16
Downwind
2 m/sec
469
80
227
445
6 m/sec
156
27
76
148
18 m/sec
52
9
25
49
o
b. Comparisons when the Wind Direction is 020 (See Figure 44)

Model Concentration:
No Wind Error
Absolute Error in Model Concentration:
With 3 Degree Wind Error
10 Degree Wind Error
45 Degree Wind Error
Model Concentrations (/xg/m ) and Absolute Errors for Indicated Receptor Location and Wind Speed
Upwind
2 m/sec
7
12
18
75
6 m/sec
2
4
6
25
18 m/sec
1
1
2
8
Center
2 m/sec
1055
227
716
308
6 m/sec
352
76
239
103
18 m/sec
117
25
80
34
Downwind
2 m/sec
23
18
154
125
6 m/sec
8
6
51
42
18 m/sec
3
2
17
14
en
ro
 i
            (1) All concentrations were computed using the St.  Louis data with 51 point sources, an area grid mesh of 0. 25 miles, one area source height,


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100 percent at the downwind location.   Note that the  pattern  is  consistent
at the downwind location (increasing concentration  error with increasing
wind error), but not at the central  site.   Changes  in the stability
condition (to unstable, or to stable)  and/or the mixing  ceiling
(to 100m) show different absolute values  of concentration and error,
but quite similar patterns.  The results  in Table 31 b for the 020®
direction should be interpreted bearing in mind that  this wind shift
consideration transfers the relative locations  of the up- and downwind
sites to some extent in the acrosswind direction (see Figure  44).
Errors at the central  site can now become  significantly  larger (up to
about 70% ) because of the significant  upwind point  sources, and  the
other two sites show increased errors, with the "downwind" site  losing
the consistent increase in error with  increased direction error  which
it had in Table 31a.
          These results show the extreme  variability  of  this  effect,
and the importance of obtaining a representative wind direction  to
enable adequate definition of the individual  short-term  concentrations
at certain specific types of site locations.
          For long-term concentrations, errors  associated with the mean
wind direction during any given period tend to  be compensated for  during
other periods, when a sufficiently large  sample is  used  to construct the
long-term mean and frequency distribution  of short-term  concentrations.
The use of a statistical sampling plan to  select wind directions in
constructing long-term averages obviates  the need for considering  the
problem of defining an appropriate class  interval  size for characteriz-
ing wind directions in a long-term concentration model.   The  results of

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statistical sampling plan evaluation discussed in Section 4.3.2 show
that long-term concentrations consturcted using an unbiased sample of
about 100 short-term periods will properly reflect the effects of wind
direction variations.

5.4.8  Diurnal Variation in Emission Rates
          The sensitivity of the model to diurnal  variations in S02
emission rates is evaluated in this section by analyzing the factors
which affect the emission rate estimations.  These factors are repre-
sented in algorithms which are used to define the  spatial  distribution
of emissions for any given hour and the variations of the emissions
from hour to hour.  The algorithms used in the validation analysis  of
this study to represent St.  Louis and Chicago emissions are given in
Appendixes B and C, respectively.  The inputs to these algorithms which
vary diurnal ly, and thus give rise to the diurnal  emission variations,
are temperature, electric power load at generating stations, and hour
of the day.  Since the errors associated with measurement of these
inputs are small, it is clear that the errors which are more critical
to model sensitivity are those associated with the assumptions in the
emission algorithms which convert these inputs into the distributions
of SOp emissions.  In the discussion which follows, these sources of
error and their impact on model  calculations are identified and
characterized.
          Sulfur dioxide emissions are characterized as arising from
one of three types of operations, namely, space heating, electric power
generation, and industrial processing.  All three  operations emit S02

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as a result of fuel consumption.   However, industrial  processing may
also include some direct emissions of SOp.  The amount of annual  emis-
sions associated with each type of operation for each  point  source  and
each subdivision of an area source is determined from  emission  inventory
surveys.  These surveys may provide more detailed breakdowns  including
seasonal or even monthly emissions.  These annual  (or  other  more
frequent) values of emissions determine the spatial  distribution of
emissions by type of operations.   These emission estimates also act
as scaling factors for diurnal  variations which are  applied  to  each
type of operation.  Thus, they determine the magnitude of the diurnal
variation at each location.  An error in one of the  estimates creates
a systematic error in the model predictions for locations in  the vicinity
of the error estimate.  However,  the occurrence of this type  of error
will be distributed randomly over all sources.   If concentrations are
considered at a number of locations widely dispersed over the urban
area, the overpredictions and underpredictions  due to  this type of  error
will tend to balance at any given time.
          Diurnal variations in emissions from  electric power generation
are estimated by means of linear relationships  with  hourly electric power
loads of specific generating units (e.g., see Section  4.1).   The error
associated with these estimates is small.  The  uncertainty of emission
estimates for proposed power plants would be greater.   However, the
emission rate estimates for this  type of operation are judged to be
sufficiently well represented that they have less  impact on model sensi-
tivity than other errors which need to be considered.

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          Diurnal variations in emissions from industrial  processing
are allocated on the basis of scaling factors which define the percent
of the peak operating capacity which is applicable to each day of the
week and to each eight-hour shift of the day.  The algorithms  used for
St. Louis and Chicago allow for three types of days of the week,  namely,
weekday, Saturday, and Sunday or holiday.  An input to the algorithm
designates the type of day which is assigned to each particular hour
for which a set of emission rates is requested.   In the Chicago case,
sufficient data were collected on each point source to assign  a specific
type of day to each day of the week.  For example, for some sources
every day is treated as a weekday, and for some other sources, Monday
is designated as a holiday.  For national holidays, all  sources are
assigned holiday schedules.  During any particular day and hour,
variations in actual emissions from these scheduled average emissions
may be considerable.  This is because industrial  operations must  respond
to fluctuations in demand and to breakdowns in equipment.   These  influences
will result in errors in emission rate estimates  in the immediate vicinity
of individual sources.   However, it is probable that these errors will
be randomly distributed over an urban area at any given time.   When
concentration predictors are considered over a number of widely dispersed
locations, the overprediction and underprediction errors will  tend to
balance.  Only detailed analysis of production records of  individual
plant operations can be expected to yield more accurate emission
estimates.

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          Emissions from space heating operations reflect diurnal cycles
 in  demand for heat and in temperature fluctuations.  Nhile these two
 factors tend to have opposite diurnal cycles, the resulting diurnal
 pattern of heating operations is rarely uniform.  The emission rates for
 space heating operations are estimated by the following equation:

               Q(t) = qT [TR - T(t)  - A(t,d)],      [T(t) + A(t,d)] £TR  (42)

 where
          Q(t) = emission rate for time t
            qT = emission rate per degree
            TR = reference temperature (usually 65°F)
          T(t) = temperature for time t
        A(t,d) = temperature correction for time t  and type of day d.

The temperature correction  is an empirical  factor to account for the
 diurnal  variation in the activities of a city which affect its demand
 for fuel.   Corrections were  determined for St. Louis for each  hour of
the day for weekdays,  Saturdays and Sundays by Turner (1968).   Two sets
of correction factors  were  derived.  One  is applicable to residential
space heating.   The other is  applicable  to commerical  and industrial
space heating.   A further correction has  been applied to emissions for
the Chicago area where residential  heating emissions were borken down
between  large apartment  buildings (20 dwelling units or more)  and small
apartment buildings and  residences  (low-rise).  A stoking factor, or
"janitor"  function, which' permits no emissions from 11  p.m.  to 5 a.m.

-------
(3 a.m. if the temperature is below 5°F), and requires  a 50 percent excess
for the first two hours of the day (recommended by Roberts, et al., 1970)
was applied to low-rise residential emissions.
          Random errors associated with individual sources  of these types
may be expected.  However, these are probably small.   A more serious type
of potential error is associated with assumptions regarding the response
of such emissions to sudden temperature changes and to unseasonal  temper-
atures.  This type of error will be systematic and city-wide.   For example,
since buildings provide insulation between outside air and  inside  air,
there will usually be a significant time lapse between a sudden temperature
change and the time when its influence on inside air requires  full  com-
pensation by increased fuel consumption.  However, the emission algorithm
assumes this adjustment takes place immediately.  The effect of this lag
on fuel consumption was pointed out by Turner (1968).  His  findings for a
severe temperature change of 15°F in one hour suggest that  a six to
eight hour period of adjustment is required.   The error in  emission
rates during the hour in which the change occurs is shown in Turner's
example to be factor of two too high and to return to no  error  in
six to eight hours.  While this type of error is critical to short-term
model sensitivity, it is not important for long-term mean concentrations
because sharp temperature changes are rare over a long  period.
          Systematic errors due to unseasonal  temperatures  can  also
result from the fact that many heating systems, especially  in  large
buildings, are only partially controlled by temperature thermostats.
Large amounts of excess heat may be generated when the  temperature  is
unseasonably warm, and the emission estimate  will  be, correspondingly,

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too low.  Similarly, insufficient heat will  be generated during
unseasonably cold periods, with an emission  overestimate.   This type
of error will persist for periods of several  hours to several  days
depending on the duration of the unseasonable temperatures.   These
errors should tend to compensate each other  over long-term periods.
However, systematic errors will exist in short predictions and, because
the contribution of these sources frequently represents  most,  or all,  of
the affected concentration, the concentration error will  be  directly
proportional to the emission error.   A careful  study of  the  magnitude
and duration of heating emissions is required to determine the nature
of heating system response to these  types of situations.
          It is concluded that mean  long-term concentrations are not
sensitive to errors in the diurnal variations in emission  rates. However,
it is clear that individual short-term concentrations will be  proportionally
sensitive to significant errors in the diurnal  variation factor. During
winter seasons, when ground level concentrations are primarily due  to
emissions from space heating operations, the short-term  concentrations
may be in error by as much as a factor of two due to errors  in temperature
dependent emission rates.

5.5  FINDINGS
          A summary of the preceding results on the sensitivity of  the
Gaussian plume type of multiple source urban diffusion model is given
below.  These results are based on calculated changes in short-term
concentrations at a point associated with changes in model inputs.   Three
types of receptor locations are considered within a selected representative

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pattern of urban area source emissions.   Combinations  of two  or three

values for each of 10 input parameters were examined in  drawing conclusions

regarding the sensitivity of the model.   A change in concentrations  at  a

point of at least 50 percent due to a change in  an input value  was

considered a "sensitive" effect.  Sensitivities  in many  cases are complex

and interrelated, and the individual  section analyses  should  be consulted

for details.

          The sensitivity findings for each input parameter are sum-

marized as follows:

          •   Spatial Variability of Emissions.   The fineness of the  grid
              spacing used to represent area sources must be  consistent
              with the dimensions of real  spatial  variability.   For
              example, if the standard deviation of emission  rates defined
              by quarter-mile squares is as much as 50 percent  of the
              mean emission rate for a square-mile, a  change  from a  grid
              spacing of a mile to a quarter-mile produces  "sensitive"
              changes.  Furthermore,  when  a small  grid spacing  is used,
              large individual  sources may be aggregated into the area
              source without producing "sensitive" changes.

          •   Vertical Distribution of Area Source Emissions.   On the
              basis of comparisons between concentrations calculated
              using a single height for area source emissions,  with
              concentrations calculated using a  distribution  of heights
              (50% of emissions at mean height,  25% at one-half the
              mean height and 25% at 1.5 times the mean  height), it  is
              concluded that this is  not a "sensitive" input.   No
              "sensitive" changes were observed  in the comparisons.

          •   Vertical Diffusion Parameter.  Under conditions which  do
              not involve low (e.g.,  100m) mixing ceilings, calculated
              short-term concentrations were shown to  vary by a factor
              of from 3 to 10 or more when the diffusion parameters
              are varied from the Pasquill Class E to  the McElroy-
              Pooler Class 1 (stability classes  defined  in Section 2.4.4).
              This large sensitivity indicates the need  for measure-
              ments of atmospheric conditions which are  clearly related
              to differences in diffusion  conditions (i.e., values
              of az).

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Pollutant Half-Life.  In order to adequately estimate
concentrations at locations downwind of major emission
areas, information on the pollutant half-life due to
atmospheric removal processes must be available.   As an
extreme example of the wide spectrum of comparisons
obtained, highly significant effects were computed for
a location 30 km downwind of the center of the urban area
when comparing no decay with a 30-minute half-life.
Concentrations with no decay were 50 times greater than
concentrations with decay.

Mind Speed and Profile Parameter Value.   Calculated
concentrations are insensitive to changes in the  wind
profile power law exponent.  Maximum changes in calculated
concentrations were 10 percent when the exponent  was varied
from 0.15 to 0.3.  Calculated concentrations are  inversely
proportional to wind speed when pollutant decay is negligible,
Decay acts to reduce the "sensitivity" effect due to wind
speed at locations downwind of the primary emission area.

Mixing Ceiling.  Changes in the mixing ceiling produce
the greatest sensitivity at locations for which most of
the pollutant arrives after traveling large distances.
At locations 30 km downwind from the primary emission
area, the calculated concentration varied inversely with
the mixing ceiling in unstable conditions.  This  maximum
"sensitivity" effect decreases with increasing stability
and is negligible in stable conditions.

Wind Direction.  A highly variable sensitivity exists for
short-term single station concentrations.  Small  changes
in wind direction (e.g., 3° azimuth) may result in extremely
"sensitive" effects at some locations.  Short-term con-
centration estimates are thus dependent on accurate wind
direction estimates.

Diurnal Variation in Emission Rates.  Errors in reported
annual or seasonal emissions from particular sources will
result in proportionally systematic errors in calculated
diurnal variations in concentrations in the vicinity of
the emission error.  Because the emission algorithms are
temperature based, unseasonable temperatures or sudden
atmospheric temperature changes will result in correspond-
ing systematic errors in predicted short-term concentrations
at all locations for a short lag period, until an adjust-
ment in space heating operations occurs.  Over a  long-
term period errors in short-term concentrations due to
differences, between actual  and estimated emission rates
will tend to be balanced in the combined frequency
distribution of short-term concentrations for several
locations.

-------
Long-Term Concentrations.  Sensitivity of the long-term
model is defined as it relates to the model  described
in Section 4.3.  Errors in model inputs will  include the
sensitivity effects summarized above for short-term
concentrations.  However, over a long-term period the
random errors tend to compensate each other.   It is
evident that this is reasonably true for model  inputs used
for validation analysis in this study, since  long-term con-
centration calculations averaged over several locations
were generally found to be in agreement with  observed
concentrations.  Furthermore, the combined frequency
distribution of observed short-term concentrations at all
locations considered were well represented by the model
calculations.

The long-term model can be expected to show comparable
sensitivity to some but not all, of the systematic (as
opposed to random) changes in the parametric  inputs
described above for the short-term model.   Those which can
impact are the spatial variability of emissions, the
vertical diffusion parameter selection, pollutant half-life,
wind speed and mixing ceiling.

-------
          Section 6.0




-------
                               Section 6.0

                     CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS


          The results of this evaluation of the validity and the  sensi-

tivity of the Gaussian plume type of urban diffusion model  provide  basic

definition of the capabilities and limitations  of the model  for simulating

urban air quality.  The following represent the important conclusions

derived from the validation and sensitivity findings, respectively.


6.1.  CONCLUSIONS FROM VALIDATION ANALYSIS

          From the findings in the validation study in which comparisons

are made with data from two cities for one and  three month  periods,  and

the model is implemented as described in Section 4.0, it is  concluded

that:


          1.  For individual values of short-term (1- or 2-hour)  concen-
trations at individual  receptor locations, the  predicted concentrations
show large deviations from the observed concentrations.   However, a  large
number of such comparisons over a month, or a season, produce frequency
distributions of predicted concentrations which compare quite well
with the observed distributions.  The individual frequency deciles  are
generally within a factor of two or less of each other.   No  single  con-
trolling factor could be found which consistently accounted  for a signif-
icant fraction of the deviations of the individual  short-term values.


          2.  Predicted long-term (monthly or seasonal)  concentrations
based on averaging of the calculated short-term concentrations, show
consistent good agreement with observations, with a root-mean-square
error equal to about half the mean, and a slight tendency to over-
estimate.  This contrasts with results from other long-term  models which
generally overestimate significantly; the improvement is concluded  to
be largely due to the combination of two factors, one being  the process
of accounting for the diurnal correlation of meteorological  and emission
parameters, and the other, the use in this model  of urban-derived
diffusion parameters (McElroy-Pooler parameters based on the Turner
stability classifications).

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           3.   A  technique has been devised for calculating the long-term
 estimates  described  above without the necessity of calculating every
 short-term concentration involved.  This is the statistical process of
 proportionate  stratified sampling, and is an effective method for select-
 ing a  limited  set  of short-term periods which adequately define the
 distribution in  the  long-term period.  As few as 5 to 10 percent of the
 total  number of  short-term periods involved will describe the distribution
 adequately, if the sampling is done as described in Section 4.3.2.

           As noted in Section 4.2.3, the calm or light wind case repre-
 sents  a special  problem; while suggestions for empirical  treatment are
 given  in that  section, the subject requires further study.

 6.2  CONCLUSIONS FROM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
           From the findings in the sensitivity analysis,  it is concluded
 that,  generally, concentrations predicted by the short-term model  were
 found to be insensitive to  changes  in  the  vertical  distribution  of area
source emissions  and the wind  profile  parameter value.  The  concentrations
 are sensitive,  under some circumstances,  to  changes  in  spacial  variability
 in emissions,  vertical diffusion parameter,  pollutant half-life, wind speed,
mixing ceiling, wind direction  and  diurnal variation  in emission rates.
The long-term model (defined  in  Section  4.3)  is  sensitive in  some  cases to
the spatial variability of  emissions,  vertical  diffusion parameters,
pollutant half-life,  wind speed  and mixing ceiling.
          More specifically,  selected  principal  sensitivity results are
 as follows:
          1.  A fine grid spacing (0.25 mile on a side)  is  necessary for
area source definition if the emissions vary significantly  over a square
mile (standard deviation of emission rates as much as  50 percent of the
mean).  Conversely, if a .coarse grid spacing is used,  then  more care
must be taken in determining the significant point sources  to  be considered.

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          2.  The model shows sensitivity to selection  of the  stability
class assigned in any given calculation of short-term concentration,  and
additionally, overall sensitivity to the choice of one  set of  diffusion
parameters (e.g., McElroy-Pooler) over another (e.g., Pasquill).

          3.  Mhen pollutant decay is negligible,  the model  shows  an
inverse proportionality relationship with wind speed; in  the presence of
a pollutant half-life of 30 minutes, the variations of  concentration  with
wind speed at downwind locations are markedly reduced.

          4.  Mixing ceiling shows its maximum effect in  terms  of  sensi-
tivity at large downwind distances under stable conditions.

          5.  Sensitivity to wind direction is highly variable,  and of
course shows the most impact at individual  stations downwind of major
sources.

          6.  Diurnal variations in emission rates are  governed in the
model algorithms by air temperatures, and in unseasonably warm or  cold
periods will result in  proportionate over- or underestimates of emissions,
and hence concentrations; these will exist for a short  (several  hours to
several days) period, gradually recovering to correct the emission values.


6.3  RECOMMENDATIONS

          On the basis  of this study, it is recommended that:

          1.  Consideration should be given to EPA's promulgation, for
general use, of the long-term version of the Gaussian plume  type of
urban diffusion model described in this report, using the proportionate
stratified sampling concept, for the calculation of long-term  means and
short-term distributions of pollutant concentrations.   Appropriate
documentation should be prepared, together with processing procedures
for meteorolgical and emission inputs, and program manuals for an
optimized computer program (to be developed).

          2.  Study should be instituted on the various measurement and
classification problems described in this report,  particularly  (1) the
relationship of the appropriate meteorological measurements  to  the
corresponding stability categories, (2) mixing ceilings,  and (3) wind
directions.   In addition, the calm or light wind case should be  studied to
to determine a satisfactory and objective method of predicting  pollutant
concentrations under these circumstances.

-------
Section 7.0




-------
                               Section 7.0

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                           Appendix A

A SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS IMPLEMENTATIONS OF THE GAUSSIAN PLUME TYPE

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                               Appendix A

    A SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS IMPLEMENTATIONS OF THE GAUSSIAN PLUME TYPE
                        OF URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL
          This appendix contains summaries of implementations of the

Gaussian plume model to analyze pollutant concentrations from multiple

sources in an urban environment.  The summaries include:


          t    Scope of application addressed by the investigator

          •    Treatment given to emission data

          •    Computational equations used

          •    Meteorological and other non-source data

          •    Validation results obtained.


          The implementations summarized are identified by the name of

the investigator and indexed by exhibit number as follows:


          Investigator                            Exhibit

          Lucas (1958)                              A-2
          Pooler (1961)                             A-3
          Turner (1964)                             A-4
          Clarke (1964)                             A-5
          Miller & Holzworth (1967)                 A-6
          Koogler, et al.  (1967)                    A-7
          Martin & Tikvart (1968)                   A-8
          Fortak (1969)                             A-9
          Mil ford, et al.  (1970)                    A-10
          Ludwig, et al.  (1970)                     A-ll
          Calder (1970)                             A-12
          Singer & Smith  (1970)                     A-13


          A list of the symbols used in the summaries is presented as

Table A-l.   Symbols used only with regard to one investigator's  work

are introduced as they are encountered.

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          The descriptions here are not comprehensive in that they do
not attempt to present or discuss all  the investigator's findings.  The
summaries present the basic method used to implement the model  and the
results of validating this model.  Further results obtained by  fitting
the model to data or examining the effect of additional  refinements
beyond the scope of the basic model are not discussed.

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                          Table A-l.   Symbols
   Symbol
                   Explanation
C or
 Q, Qi
     V
     D
AH, AHi
 h, h.
     S
y  v   v
A > A-j >  ' »

    yv
  '   i

    6i
     6
     U
Seasonal or long-term mean concentration over a
sequence of short-term (steady-state) periods
Concentration due to area sources
Concentration due to point sources
Short-term (steady-state) concentration
Emission rate per unit area (area source)
Emission rate (point source)
Stack effluent velocity (point source)
Stack diameter (point source)
Stack effluent temperature (point source)
Physical height of source
PI ume ri se
Effective source height
Alongwind length of area source
Alongwind distance between source and receptor
locations
Crosswind distance between source and receptor
locations
Azimuth from receptor to source
Mean wind direction
Mean wind speed
Representative wind speed for  jth wind speed class
Empirical diffusion parameter
                                                            (Continued)

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                     Table A-l.  Symbols (Concluded)
   Symbol
                   Explanation
  f(

 L'Lk
     T

    '50
 t, t
"V
Frequency distribution of specified variables
Mixing layer depth or ceiling
Ambient air temperature
Pollutant airborne half-life
Travel time from source to receptor with  mean
wind speed
Horizontal  diffusion parameter
Vertical  diffusion parameter

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          Exhibit A-2.  Model  Implementation by Lucas (1958)

I.   Scope:
     Short-term and seasonal mean concentrations from domestic fires
     in an urban area.

II.   Treatment of Sources:
     Represent emissions by a  uniform area source (i.e., q, S and h)
     for London
                                   ft SO
                    q = 1.7 x  10"8   ?  2  (1954 estimate)
                                   ft^sec
     Under "normal" meteorological conditions

                       h = 30  + 5 (jj)3

     Under stable meteorological  conditions
u, ft/sec
h, ft
<1
80
2
45
3
35
>5
30
III.  Computational  Equations:
     Approximate a  Gaussian plume for a point source by a uniform cone
     (allowing for  impenetrability of the ground and mass continuity)
     and integrate  the resulting equation over the source area to get
     concentration  as  a function of distance  from the upwind edge of
     the source area.   For short-term with x  < S,
             /? Ku
     With  x >  S,
C2(x) =
                                h'
                                          4
         K2x2   K4x4(2)2!    K6x6(3)3!
                                           -  S)

-------
     Estimate long-term concentrations  using short-term concentrations
     associated with wind speed classes  as  follows,
                    C(x) = E f(u..)  Ck(x).
                           J
IV.  Meteorological  Parameters:
     Use mean wind speed or frequency distribution of wind  speed  classes,
     The diffusion parameter K is 0.041  for "normal"  conditions;  0.014
     for stable conditions (based on  ft,  sec unit system).   Use normal
     value for long-term estimates.

V.    Validation Results:

     Pollutant, Location, Time     Observed        Calculated
     S02, London,  1954-55          0.114  ppm         0.11 ppm
          winter season
     S02, London,  5-8 Dec., 1952   1.5 ppm            9.0 ppnT3'

     (a)  A two-level  diurnally varying emission rate (i.e., constant
     for 15 hours, zero for 9 hours)  was  used in this prediction.  The
     calculation as  presented graphically by Lucas appears  to be  related
     to a puff, rather than a plume,  type of calculation in which emis-
     sions during  one period are traced during the succeeding period in
     which zero emissions occur.  The details of the  calculation  are
     not reported.

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         Exhibit A-3.   Model  Implementation by Pooler (1961)

I.    Scope:
     Mean monthly pollutant concentrations resulting from multiple
     pollutant sources at a gridwork of receptor locations.

II..   Treatment of Sources:
     Represent emissions (Q)  from each square mile of an urban area by
     a point source in the center.   Treat all emissions  as having an
     effective height  of 30 m.   Receptor concentrations  are  calculated
     for the same locations used as  point sources.   Emissions  (q  ) from
     the square centered on a receptor are treated as a  uniform
     circular area source.

III.  Computational  Equation:
     Treat the plume from a point source as having a Gaussian  distri-
     bution  of pollutant concentrations in the vertical  and  a  uniform
     distribution over a sector of angle -rr/8 in the horizontal  (allow-
     ing for impenetrability  of the  ground and mass continuity).   Let
     f (u-,e)  denote the relative frequency of occurrence of a wind
         J
     speed class with  an average value of u- and a wind  direction
                                           J
     class with median value  e.   The concentration per unit emission
     rate at a receptor, due  to emissions from a point source  a
     distance  x. and azimuth  e.  from the receptor is:
                                        2
                               exp  (- -^ )
     where
                   (-}  xiuic
                   \ol   I  J
                       .,  -  2KU/-V
                      a,e  =  empirical diffusion  parameters

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                                        o
     Over a circular area source of 1  mi  the concentration per unit
     emission rate per unit area is:
     Use linear interpolation between wind direction class medians to
     obtain the concentration due to each source and sum,
     	                        o
          o o   .  i       i     IT   i     i       i        i
     where
          4>..  = clockwise most adjacent wind direction  class  median
          .  are in  radians.

IV.  Meteorological  Parameters:
     Joint frequency distributions of wind speed classes having  average
     values of u.  and wind  direction classes having median values  of e
                J
     are required to be known for the period of  interest.  Over  periods
     of a month the  following values of the meteorologically oriented
     diffusion parameters were used  for Nashville, Tennessee:
     a = 0.6, 6= 1.5, K = 0.06.

V.    Validation Results:
     An analysis of  the regression of observed monthly lead peroxide
     candle sulphation rate on concentrations derived  by interpolating
     isopleths drawn for the gridwork of calculated mean monthly con-
     centrations was made for available data from 123  sampling locations
     in Nashville, Tennessee, for the months of  November 1958 through
     March 1959.  One-half  of the observed concentrations were reported
     to be between 80 and 125 percent of the regression  relationship.
     Less than 5 percent of the observed values  deviated from the
     regression relationship by more than a factor of  two.

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          Exhibit A-4.   Model  Implementation  by  Turner (1964)

I.   Scope:
     Estimate 24-hour gaseous  pollutant concentrations (e.g.,  S0?)  as
     the mean of calculated 2-hour steady state  concentrations  at  a
     gridwork of receptor locations in an urban  area.

II.   Treatment of Sources:
     Represent emissions from  each square mile of a  rectangular grid-
     work covering the  urban area source by a normal  line  source
     centered on the square, oriented perpendicular  to the wind, having
     a standard deviation (a)  of 402m and having an  emission  rate  Q..
     Treat all source emissions  as having an  effective height  (h)  of
     20m.  Use available data  to estimate emission rates for  specific
     periods (e.g., 6 A.M.  to  8  A.M., Nov.  12, 1958).
III.  Computational  Equations:
     A.    For short-term steady state,
          Represent the emissions  from  each  normal  line  source  as  a
          Gaussian  plume (allowing for  impenetrability of  the ground
          and mass  continuity)  using  a  modification  of the  Pasquill
          diffusion parameters  a  and a  (see  meteorological parameters).
          Treat S0? as  being subject  to exponential  decay with  a half-
                                  Sum concentrations from  all sources.
life (t50)  of 4 hours.
          C = z
                                                          0
          For long term,
          Divide lonq-term period (e.g.,  24  hours)  into  short-term
          quasi-steady state periods  (e.g.,  2  hours)  and compute mean
          of steady state  estimates,  e.g.:

                                1  12
                           w   1/1 /   vi
                                  k=l

-------
IV.  Meteorological  Parameters:
     Determine mean  wind speed,  wind direction  and  atmosoheric  stability
     class for each  short-term period.   Stability classes  are defined
     as described in oreceding text (see Tables  2 and  3).   Using  a
     wind speed of 5 m/sec,  the  Pasquill  diffusion  parameters (a  '  and
     0 ) were converted to functions of time  and stability class  (see
     Turner, 1964).   Use t.  and  these realtionships  to get (a  ).  and
     (oy-)..   Then,  (ay). =a+ (oy')r

V.    Validation Results:
     Calculated concentrations were estimated for sampling locations
     by interpolating from an isopleth  analysis  of  initial  calculated
     values.  In 1036 comparisons  (available  from 32 locations  and  35
     24-hour periods without precipation, in  Nashville,  Tennessee)
     the following results were  obtained for  calculated  and
     observed concentrations rounded to nearest pphm.
          Number of  zero di fferences	263
          Number of  1 pphm differences	602
               Average absolute  error	2.06  pphm
               Root  mean square  error	3.28  pphm
               Skill  score	0.13
     In 2707 comparisons of 2-hour concentrations (7 sampler locations)
     selected from the same  period it was noted that 43.7% of the
     differences were within 1  ophm.

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          Exhibit A-5.   Model  Implementation by Clarke (1964)

I.    Scope:
     Utilize accepted diffusion coefficients and readily available
     meteorological  data in a  simple model  not requiring an electronic
     computer to estimate averaqe daily urban pollution concentrations
     and diurnal variations.

II.   Treatment of Sources:
     Estimate short-term emission rates of significant point sources
     (e.g.,  2-hour rate for power plants; however,  Clarke was  only able
     to obtain a constant emission rate for a single significant
     Cincinnati power plant,  i.e., 77 tons/day of SO^ and 4 tons/day
     of NO ).  Using emission  inventory data grouped by homogeneous
          /\
     areas,  estimate zero,  average and maximum degree day emission
     rates for each  subdivision of a circular gridwork of model  oriented
     areas centered  on  a receptor location.   Use daily degree  day
     observations to interpolate between these values.  To define the
     diffusion model oriented  areas, determine the  radial distances
     ri > ro» r-3 ancl  r  „ which for Q. = 1 and u = 1 satisfy:
      i   i.    o      max            i
            r             r             r             r
          nf ] C  dx =  „ /  2  C  dx = „ / 3 C  dx =    / max C  dx
          0      A      rl      A      r2     A      r3       A
     For a given stability  class these integrals are functions of dis-
     tance only and  the divisions may be determined graphically.  Wind
     direction class sector lines and the radial distances define the
     area subdivisions.  For  the area source H = 30m for SOp and 20m
     for NO  .  For point sources the plume rise is  given by the Davidson-
          /\
     Bryant  formula  (e.g.,  see Briggs 1969, p.23) and h.. = H.  + AH..

III.  Computational  Equations:
     A.   For short-term concentrations C,  = C  + C^

-------
                N        2 Q.
          CD = I    _  -   \   N   exp <-
           p   i=l  u/Mf) xi(oz).

          where N = number of  point sources  whose  azimuth  from  receptor
                    to source  lies  within  the prevailing wind direction
                    class.
                4        2 Q.
          CA = L.    ^ .,.  V   .   exP {~
2(aJ
                                                2
                                 .
                            IZ-j      V     2.
          where Q.  = emission rate of ith  sector segment  for sectors
                     lying within prevailing  wind direction  class
          x.  = /-pCr,-2 + r.  -,2)  = source to receptor alongwind distance
                                  (r, - 0)
     B.    For long-term concentrations, compute the  mean  of the N  com-
          ponent short-term  period concentrations, e.g.:
IV.   Meteorological  Parameters:
     For each quasi  steady-state period determine  the  wind direction
     class, wind speed and Turner (1964)  stability category (e.g.,  see
     Tables 2 and 3  of text).
     Use Turner's (1964)  graphs  to determine a   values as  functions of
     the stability category and  travel  time t. .

V.    Validation Results:
     Comparing 19 observed and calculated 24-hour  concentrations  for
     Cincinatti :

-------
                                     CAMP Station     Kettering
                                                      Laboratory
                                     NOX      S02        S02
     Number of differences  of  2  pphm    14       18
          or less
     Number of calculations within      18       15
          a factor of 2  of  observa-
          tions
Regression of observed on calculated  values  (pphm)
     Correlation coefficient          0.67     0.71       0.81
     Slope                           0.66     0.42       0.34
     Intercept                       3.4      1.1        0.45

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   Exhibit A-6.  Model Implementation by Miller and Holzworth (1967)

I.   Scope:
     Maximum and average short-term concentrations  over a metropolitan
     area without the use of an electronic computer.

II.  Treatment of Sources:
     Represent emissions as a continuous and uniform area source with
     infinite crosswind dimension and a ground-level  source height.

III.  Computational  Equations:
     Treat area source as a continuum of infinite crosswind line
     sources, each with emission rates q dx.  Represent the plume from
     each line by a vertical Gaussian distribution  down to the distance
     where 1.25 times the diffusion parameter a  equals the mixing layer
     ceiling (i.e., travel time t.); beyond this distance use a uniform
     vertical distribution.  Only emissions with a  travel time of 50
     seconds or more are considered at any receptor.
     A.   Maximum concentration at downwind edge of source area:

          C = q
    |     p              -I
    L        dt + .  / s   dt
,n    - —      .
50                      L
          where tg = - = time required to travel across the source area
                         with the mean wind speed, sec
     B.    Average of city area:

          C = M   / L   / L 	1— dt dt + .  / s .  / s 7- dt dt
              O  OU    DU    /^—            t.     t.     L
IV.   Meteorological  Parameters:
     Meteorological  parameters required in the above model  are mean
     wind speed and  mixing layer height.   The diffusion parameters are

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taken from Turner's (1964) time-oriented interpretation of the
Pasquill diffusion parameters.   Class C was used for afternoons
and Class D for mornings.  The afternoon mixing layer ceiling was
defined to be the height above the surface at which a dry adiabatic
lapse rate from the maximum surface temperature intersected the
morning radiosonde temperature sounding.  The morning mixing layer
ceiling was defined to be the height at which a dry adiabatic
lapse rate from a surface temperature of 5° C greater than the
morning minimum intersects the morning radiosonde temperature
sounding.

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                                                         V.  Validation Results:
Pollutant
NO
• x
so2
NO
X
NO
X
SO

Location
Los Angeles
Nashville
Washington
(a)
Los Angeles
Nashville

Time
Of Day
1500-1700
1200-1400
1300-1700
0700-0900
0400-0600

Observing
Period
1963
Oct - Mar
1958-59
1962-64
1963
Oct - Mar
1958-59
No. of
Periods
36
31
58
35
31

No. of
Stations
7 to 9
7
1
7 to 9
7

Range of
Observations
pphm
4. 5 to 23. 5
0 to 4. 2
1 to 17
5 to 56
0 to 9. 8

Number of
Comparisons
Within
+2 pphm
30 of 36
90% within
+ 1 pphm
(b)
51% within
5 pphm of
regression line
All within
3 pphm of
regression line
Regression of Observed
On Calculated, pphm
Correlation
Coefficient
0.88
0.84
0.83
0.80
0.84

Intercept
0.06
0.25
0.77
5.23
1.77

Slope
1.02
1.16
0.92
0.58
0.41

(a)  Calculated concentrations are for downwind edge of city.

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             Exhibit A-7.   Model  Implementation by Koogler,
                   Sholtes, Davis and Harding (1967)

I.   Scope:
     Estimate continuous or 24-hour mean ground-level  concentrations
     from multiple sources in an  urban area.

II.  Treatment of Sources:
                                                  4
     Sources with an emission rate greater than 10  g/hr are  treated  as
     point sources.   All other sources are treated as  an area source.
     Estimate plume  rise (AH) using the Holland formula (i.e., use
     stack diameter, gas velocity and gas  heat content; see Slade 1968).
     The effective source  height  is:
                         h = (H + AH)
                                            2_
                                            3
     If an inversion base exists aloft, h  equals  the  height of the
     inversion base.  If an inversion  exists  at ground level  and an
     adiabatic lapse rate exists above 1.25  times  H,  no ground-level
     concentrations  are  calculated.  Divide  the area  source into square
     mile subdivisions.   Each  square is treated as  a  uniform crosswind
     line source  1609m lone.

III.  Computational  Equations
     Divide 24-hour interval  into periods  of constant meteorological
     conditions (i.e., wind direction, wind  speed  and stability  classi-
     fication) and  duration t. .
          A)   For  point sources such  that x  <  ut.

               C  =  —^	exp
               p   _.,_  _    r

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          B)    For finite  line  sources  such  that  x < ut.
               Cfl =  	9	esp(-0.693
                M
                                           .5  - y    erf804.5
               Contributions  due  to  emissions  during one preceding
               period are  also  used  as  follows:
          C)    When  the  wind  direction  is  unchanged from the preceding
               period, apply  the  above  equations to sources with an
               alongwind distance from  source  to receptor such that
               u?t.  <_ x  <  (u, + u?)t, where  u, is the wind speed of the
               preceding period and  u?  is  the  wind speed of the current
               period.
          D)    When  the  wind  direction  differs from the preceding
               period, the plume  from each source during the preceding
               period is treated  as  a line source.  The concentration
               distribution along the new  line source is the crosswind
               integral  of the  ground-level  concentration.  The line
               source is allowed  to  diffuse  in the new wind direction
               allowing  only  vertical dispersion and decay effects.
               The total concentration  at  a  point during a period is
               the sum of  all point, finite  line, and preceding period
               emissions.   The  concentration for a 24-hour period is the
               average concentration over  all  subdivisions of the period.

IV.   Meteorological  and  Other Non-Source Parameters:
     For each  period of  constant  meteorological conditions, determine
     the wind  direction, wind speed  and stability classification.  The

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wind speed is treated as constant to 65m.   Above 65m the relation
of wind speed (u,) at height (z,) to the wind speed (iu) at  height
(z2) is:
                       ul = U2

where n is a stability oriented parameter varying from 0.18 for
extremely unstable conditions to 0.51  for stable conditions.
Estimate stability classifications defined by Gifford (1961)  from
vertical temperature measurements.  Estimate diffusion parameter
values for a  and a  for each stability classification from
Gifford's presentation (1961).  Use 4  hours for the half-life (t5Q)
of S02.

Validation Results:
Calculated and observed 24-hour average SOp concentrations  were
compared for 11 sampling stations.  Data were obtained for  12 days
during .December 1965 and January 1966  and resulted in 111 compar-
isons.  The observed values ranged from 0 to 3 pphm.   When  values '
are categorized to the nearest 0.5 pphm, a chi  square test  of
significance on a two-way contingency  table (observed versus
predicted) showed the calculated prediction was significant at the
0.1% level.  Furthermore, 95% of the computed concentrations  were
within ±1 pphm of the observed concentrations.

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           Exhibit A-8.   Model  Implementation  by Martin and
                   Tikvart (1968) (also Martin 1971)
I.    Scope:
     Average seasonal  concentrations  of  pollutants  at multiple  receptors
     from multiple sources.

II.   Treatment of Sources :
     Treat sources with  emission  rates greater  than 100 tons/year as
     elevated point sources.   Estimate plume  rise from the Holland
     equation with a stability oriented  correction  factor  (e.g., see
     TRW Systems  Group 1969).   Treat  all  other  sources as  an  area
     source.  Subdivide  the  area  source  into  squares of 1  to  10 km on
     a side  and determine  the  rate  of emission  and  average effective
     height  h.  Each area  source  square  is  treated  as a virtual point
     which emits  at a  rate equal  to the  emission rate of the  total
     square  at a  distance  (r ) upwind of the  center of the square
     dependent on the  size of  the area,  i.e.:
                              r  -
                              r  "
                               o "  0.393

III.  Computational  Equations:
     Both the area  source  and  large point  sources  are  represented by a
     set of point sources.   All  wind directions  in a 22.5° sector
     centered on a  16-point compass azimuth  are  assumed  to occur with
     equal probability.  The emission rate is  assumed  to be  constant or
     at least independent  of meteorological  conditions.  Beyond a dis-
     tance of 2 r  the  vertical  distribution of  pollutants is uniform
     due to the influence  of the mixing layer  ceiling, where  rm is  the
     travel distance  such  that a (r ) = 0.47 L. .   In terms of the joint
                                i  HI          K
     frequency distribution of meteorological  parameter  classes, the
     concentration  at a  receptor point from  all  sources  is given as
     follows:

-------
     For r .1 r
              m
              N   6   5
                                                 20,
                                                 sk)
                                              '>  K
                           exp
     For r >_ 2r
              N   6   5
             1=1 j=l k=l
     For r  < r < 2r
                                 L,u.
                                       k j  16
                      r - r.
     C (r) • C 
-------
     Use the Pasquill diffusion parameters for a, expressed as mathe-
                                          K
     matical equations of the form a  = ax  + c where the parameters
     a, b and c are defined separately for each stability class and
     various ranges of x.  The mixing layer ceiling is taken as a
     function of the stability class and the climatological  afternoon
     mixing layer height (L ), varying from 100m for class 5 to 1.5 L
                           c
     for class 1.

V.    Validation  Results:
     Mean winter concentrations were calculated for 40 St.Louis stations.
     A regression analysis of observed values  on calculated values was
     performed for the 40 locations.  The regression analysis  was
     repeated with 5 stations which were strongly influenced by point
     sources omitted.   The results were:
                                         40 Stations   35 Stations
          Correlation coefficient           0.60          0.84
          Slope of regression line          0.266         0.56
          Intercept of regression line      0.026         0.011

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          Exhibit A-9.   Model  Implementation  by  Fortak  (1970)

I.   Scope:
     Estimate long-term concentrations of ground-level  S0?  concentra-
     tions from multiple sources  and derive the  associated  frequency
     distribution of short-term concentrations.

II.  Treatment of Sources:
     Treat sources with an  emission rate greater than  1  kg/hr  as  point
     sources.  Estimate the plume rise using  Stumke's  empirical  formula
     which is similar to the CONCAWE formula  (e.g.,  see  Briggs  1969).
     Treat small industrial sources and emissions during space  heating
     by dwellings as an area source.  Estimate the seasonal  emission
     rate (QA) for each 500m by 500m square of the area  source.   Use
     an emission height of  25m for squares in a  downtown area  and
     15m for squares in a suburban area.  A simple,  but  unspecified,
     procedure is used to estimate the effective height  of  an  area
     source.   Represent each square by a set  of  n by n  indentical point
     sources, equally spaced over the square. Each  point has  an  emis-
                      2              2
     si on rate of Q./n .  Values  of n  from 81 to 144  are recommended.

III.  Computational Equations:
     Consider a fixed retangular horizontal coordinate with  5-axis
     pointing east and n-axis  pointing north. For wind  direction e,
     measured from north in radians, the alongwind distance  x.  and
     crosswind distance y.  between a point source at location  (?.,  n-)
     and a receptor at location UR> nR) are:
          x..  = UR - £.)  cos (|ir  - e) + (nR - n.j) sin  (|IT -  e)
                              3                        3
          yi  = ^nR " V  COS (2*  ' Q) ' (£R ' £-j) sin  (jf* '  e)
     The concentration at a receptor from all point  sources  (including
     area source representations) during a specific  combination of
     meteorological conditions is:

-------
          c =
          where 0o(v, w)  = 	 )
                 3         ^
     The concentrations  associated with  each  possible  combination  of
     the classes of the  three meteorological  parameters which  have a
     non-zero frequency  of occurrence may  be  calculated and  ordered
     from low to high.   Summing the frequency of  occurrence  associated
     with ordered concentrations a frequency  distribution  of expected
     concentrations at a point may be constructed.   From the constructed
     frequency distribution the concentration for any  probability  level
     may be estimated.   The frequencies  of occurrence  may  also be  used
     to calculate the long-term mean or  the mean  for any particular
     wind direction class.

IV.   Meteorological  and  Other Parameters:
     Determine the joint frequency distribution of meteorological
     parameters including wind direction,  wind speed and stability
     class for the long-term period of interest  (e.g., month,  seasonal,
     heating period).  Use 36 wind direction  classes,  7 wind speeds
     and the 5 stability classes of Turner (see text,  Tables 2 and 3)
     to define the meteorological  conditions.  For low-level emissions
     (i.e., area sources) use the Pasquill  diffusion parameters  for
     a  and a  (e.g., see text, Figures  2  and 3).  For high-level
     emissions (i.e., large point sources) use a  slightly  modified
     version of the Brookhaven diffusion parameters  presented  by
     Fortak (see Stern 1970).  Treat the power-law used to extrapolate
     observed wind speed class values to values at various stack

-------
heights as a function of atmospheric stability using values
reported in the literature.  Use 500m for the height of the  mixing
layer ceiling (L).

Validation Results:
Calculated and observed S0? concentrations were compared at  4
locations in Bremmen, Germany, for the 1967-68 heating season (i.e.,
November through May).  The cumulative frequency distributions  of
calculated and observed concentrations for the season were com-
pared graphically at each location.   In general, the observations
were overestimated  at three stations and underestimated at one.
Monthly and seasonal means for the four locations were also  com-
pared.  The observed seasonal  means  were 0.06 mg/m  at one station
             3
and 0.08 mg/m  at the other three.  The calculated minus observed
seasonal concentrations were -0.04,  0.01, 0.02 and 0.04 mg/m .
The observed monthly means (for 4 stations times 7 months) ranged
                      3
from 0.03 to 0.13 mg/m .  The  calculated minus observed monthly
                                                               3
concentrations for  the 28 values ranged from -0.05 to 0.06 mg/m .

-------
            Exhibit A-10.   Model  Implementation  by Mil ford,
                 McCoyd,  Aronowitz  and  Scanlon  (1970)
I.    Scope:
     Use short-term pollutant concentration  estimates  to give  long-term
     concentrations.

II.   Treatment of Sources:
     Treat electric power  plants  as  point  sources.   Determine  the
     emission rate and effective  height  of each  plant.  Treat  other
     sources  as an area source.   Area  source characteristics are
     available from emission  inventory surveys by square subdivisions.
     Combine  characteristics  in the  outer  regions of the source area to
     define characteristics in terms of  coarser  subdivisions.  Represent
     each square by treating  it as a double  virtual  point, i.e., as a
     two-dimensional  plume with assumed  vertical and horizontal diffu-
     sion parameter values at the center of  the  square.  Determine the
     emission rate, initial vertical and horizontal  diffusion  parameter
     value,  and mean  effective source  height for each  subdivision.

III.  Computational Equations:
     Since both the area source and  point  source are treated as a set
     of point sources the  standard Gaussian  plume equation is  applicable
     to each  calculation.  Use a  version (specific equation not speci-
     fied) which includes wind speed,  wind direction,  stability class,
     mixing ceiling,  source location relative to a receptor, source
     emission rate and source effective  height as parameters.  Parameter
     values  are fixed for  a short-term period.   W-ith an inversion aloft,
     assume  no effect due  to  the  inversion up to a certain distance.
     At some  greater distance assume uniform vertical  mixing.  Use
     linear interpolation  at  intermediate  distances.

-------
IV.  Meteorological Parameters :
     Make estimates of the wind direction, the wind speed and the mixing
     layer ceiling representative of the region for a selected period.
     Estimate a stability class aporopriate for use with the McElroy-
     Pooler (1968) diffusion parameters.  For use with virtual point
     sources it is necessary to determine a virtual distance associated
     with the assumed initial diffusion parameter.  Determine diffusion
     parameters for each downwind travel distance from source to recep-
     tor by determining the diffusion value corresponding to a distance
     equal to the sum of the virtual distance olus the travel distance.

V.    Validation  Results:
     Comparisons were  made  between  calculated  and  observed   S0?  concen-
     trations  at 10  telemetry stations  in  New  York City  for  the  July
     through August  1969  period.  Calculations  were made  for each hour
     of the period using  wind speed  and  direction  data from  La Guardia
     Airport,  an infinite mixing  layer ceiling,  plume  rise estimates
     for large point sources  based on a  10 mph  wind speed using  the
     CONCAWE formula (e.g., see Briggs 1969),  and  the  McElroy-Pooler
     stability class 4  (see text, Table  5) diffusion parameters.  The
     means of  all  calculated  concentrations for all hours and all
     stations were 6.8  and 6.6 pphm  for  July and August,  respectively.
     The corresponding observed means were 7.0  and 7.5 pphm.  Of the
     20 sets of  individual station monthly means,  15 calculated means
     were within a factor of  2 of observed means.. The largest discre-
     pancy was an  overprediction by  a factor of 4.  A summary of statis-
     tics reported for comparisons of hourly comparisons  is  as follows:
Comparisons of all sta-
tion means
Range of comparisons at
individual stations
July 1969
Mean Rel .
Error
-0.36
-3.4 to
0.42
Std. Dev.
of Rel.
Error
2.3
0.66 to
5.1
August 1969
Mean Rel .
Error
-0.58
-4.3 to
0.52
Std. Dev.
of Rel .
Error
2.8
0.69 to
6.0

-------
        Exhibit A-ll.   Model  Implementation  by  Ludwig,  Johnson,
                        Moon  and Mancuso  (1970)
I.   Scope:
     Calculate short-term (single  steady state)  carbon  monoxide  (CO)
     concentrations in urban areas for producing (1)  concentration
     isopleths for a specific time, (2)  concentration histories  for a
     specific location and (3) long-term climatological  summaries of
     concentrations for specific locations.

II.   Treatment of Sources:
     Treat all CO emissions  as a ground-level  area  source.   For  each
     receptor location considered, estimate  the  emission rate  per unit
     area applicable to angular segments centered on  a  line  pointing
     upwind  from the receptor.  The angular  segments  have  a  width of
     45° out to 1 km.   Beyond 1  km the angular segments  have a width of
     22.5 .   The segments are bounded by arcs  with  radii  of  0.125,
     0.25, 0.5, 1, 2,  4, 8 and 16  km.

III.  Computational  Equations:
     Use the Gaussian  plume  diffusion model  for  treating emissions over
     travel  distances  which  are less than the  distance  (r-r)  at which
     the Gaussian plume model concentration  equals  that  obtained from
     uniform mixing beneath  the mixing layer ceiling.


          rT = <*7T>  1J           where rN  <  rT <  Vl
                 I J
     Beyond  this distance uniform  vertical mixing is  assumed.  The
     resultant concentration at a  receptor from  eight sectors  is:

-------
u 1
rN+l '
"N-I r ]-bu /'"id"
V n i+1 " i
L «1 a^ll - b. .)
^l i £
1 i ' N n I* . Y* \
                              i=N+l
/ 1 -bM •
O.sir J
- r ^
rN >
aNj(1 - V
IV.   Meteorological  Parameters:
     Estimate  wind  direction, wind  speed, mixing  layer ceiling, and
     stability class.   Use wind  direction and speed observations from
     airport weather stations.   Estimate mixing layer ceilings using
     the nearest  1200Z  radiosonde data  and the maximum afternoon tempera
     ture (T ) by the following  values:
                         Time of Day         L
                     Midnight to 1200 GMT
                     1200 GMT to 1400 1ST
                           m
             -  T
Ll  "
                m
'Ta -  Tm,
        .  29.3

,\j rn UN i yn u up
r A -T
Oorjol m s
. £11 Ol •
Pm + PS /Tm - Ts^
I 2 \Pm-Psy
-j - 0.0633
/T + T \
\ n °°7 m s
°-t87\ 2 /
                                m
    where  T   =  surface  temperature  in  1200Z radiosonde
           p   =  surface  .pressure  in  1200Z  radiosonde
           T   =  temperature of  first significant  level in  1200Z radiosonde

-------
     p  = pressure of first significant level in 1200Z radiosonde
     <)>  = population of the urban area
     T  = maximum afternoon surface temperature
      a
     p  = surface pressure corresponding to T
      a                                      a
     p  = pressure in the 1200Z radiosonde corresponding to a
      /\
          potential temperature given by Tg and pg
     T  = temperature in the 1200Z radiosonde corresponding to p
      X                                                         X
     H  = hour of interest
     L  = L  for 1200Z radiosonde of following day

Determine which of five Pasquill stability classes is appropriate
from the solar elevation angle («), the fraction of sky covered
by clouds (N), and the wind speed using the following table:
Wind Speed (Knots
I3
3-6
6-10
10-12
I13
0
-------
     For the source segment closest to the receptor:

          bu = °
          a.. = a  for class j  at x =  125m
           »J    ^
     For other parameter values,  see author's  text  (Ludwig,  et  al.  1970)

V.    Validation Results:
     Comparisons were made between calculated  and observed hourly  con-
     centrations of CO during weekdays of March  to  December  1964  for
     the St.  Louis CAMP station.   The  correlation coefficients  ranged
     from 0.16 to 0.45 with a mean of 0.31.  The RMSE  ranged from 4.7
     to 8.8 ppm with a mean of  6.2 ppm.   A good  portion  of the  RMSE is
     attributable to a background level  which  was estimated  for each
     month and found to vary between 3.5 and 7.0 ppm.

-------
         Exhibit A-12.   Model  Imolementation  by  Calder  (1970)

I.    Scope:
     Estimate lonq-term average concentrations of  gaseous  pollutants
     using point and area source emission  inventory  data  together with
     climatological  frequency  data  for wind speed, wind direction,
     atmospheric stability and mixing  depth.

II.   Treatment of Sources:
     Treat large sources with  emission rates  in  excess  of  100  tons/yr
     as elevated point  sources.   Determine the seasonal emission rate,
     physical stack  height, and additional stack parameters  required to
     estimate plume  rise (e.g., see Briggs 1969).  Treat other emissions
     as an area source.   Determine  seasonal emission  rates for sub-areas
     of the  area source which  are chosen  in relation  to the  spatial
     uniformity of the  source  distribution.   Determine  the uniform
     effective height which is most applicable for the  area  source
     (e.g.,  20m was  selected for St. Louis).

III.  Computational Equations:
     The total averaqe  concentration at a receptor due to both point
     and area sources is (T = C.  + C where:
          C  =  P. V  V V   Q1  f (ei'  J>  k)  S  (Xi'  ^  V  k)
                                              y\ •
              N

             1=1   j   k

where
      j = wind speed class
      k = Pasquill stability class as defined by Turner (see
          Tables 2 and 3)
     zr = height of receptor location

-------
The  form of  the  factor S  (x.,  z  ;  u  ,  k)  is  dependent on  the  degree
                            '   '   J

to which the mixinq  layer ceiling  (Lk)  restrains vertical mixing


as follows:

                 L.

Foraz(x.; k) £ ^ ,
     S(x., z: p., k) =
                          7r Uj oz(x.; k)
exp<-
                21,
                  k
For 0 (x.; k) >_ -5--^  ,
     £-   \       C* • I O
                                exo<-
                                        2o22(xf; k)
                    + H. +AH.)2V



                    22(Xl;k)    /.
     S(xr zr; y   k) =
      l                  k
For 0 !;.- < a (x.; k) < 0 !;.-  , use linear interpolation between  the
    d. I b    z  1       c.. I b
     two forms.
          16 ,<

          2TT 6
 /16



fc
 M=l
:*>!!
     j  k
                                  S(x
,  zr;  u.,  k)>dx
          where q  (x) = /     Q(x, e) de   (0
                        ei
                                              17
Apply the trapezoid rule to numerically integrate the equations.

The e. values are 22.5° apart.  The q.(x) integral may be evaluated

using 2.25° increments for e.  The C. integral may be evaluated

using 100m increments from the receptor to the edge of the source

area.

-------
IV.  Meteorological and Diffusion Parameters:
     The meteorological parameters in the above model  are wind speed,
     wind direction, stability classification, and climatological
     mixing layer ceiling (e.g., as tabulated by Holzworth, 1964).
     Generate the joint frequency distribution of wind speed, wind
     direction, and stability classification using standard Weather
     Bureau airport observations.  On this basis, there are 16 wind
     direction categories with dividing azimuths 6^, 6 wind speed
     categories (each with a representative value u-)» and 5 stability
                                                   J
     categories corresponding to the A to E Pasquill diffusion parameter
     classes, but determined using Turner's criteria (see text, Figures
     2 and 3).  The mixing layer ceiling L  is determined from the
     seasonal average daily maximum mixing death (L in Meters) and the
     stability classification as follows:
               Stability Classification    Lk (meters)
                            A                 1.5 L
                      B, C, D (day)      ,       L
                        D (night)         0.5 (100 + L)
                            E                  100
     The Pasquill  diffusion parameters o (x; k) are determined from the
     following relationships fitted to curves presented by Gifford  (1961)

                    az(x; k) = ak. x ki  + cki

     For each value of k there are three possible sets of coefficients
     (a^, b, .  c, .).  The proper set depends on which of 3 distance
     ranges contains x (i.e., <100, 100-100C,  >1000;  see Calder (1970)
     for the 45 coefficient values).

V.   Validation Results:
     Calculated and observed seasonal  mean S0? concentrations were  com-
     pared for St.  Louis winter season data (Dec. 1, 1964 to Feb.  28,

-------
1965).   A regression analysis  of observed  on calculated  values
     o
(pg/m )  for 40 sampling stations resulted  in a  correlation  coeffi-

cient of 0.775 an intercept of 19.98  and a  slope  of  0.26.

-------
             Exhibit A-13.   Model  Implementation by  Singer
                        and Smith (1970,  1966)
I.   Scope:
     Estimate short-term concentrations  from multiple  single  sources
     for stable pollutants.

II.  Treatment of Sources :
     Identify the pollutant  emission rate,  geographical  location,  stack
     height and stack and emission characteristics  related  to plume
     rise for each source.   Treat each emission  as  a continuous  point
     source.

III.  Computational Equations:
     The concentration at each  receptor  point is  the sum of contribu-
     tions from each of N sources.

                         Qi          /   (Hi  +AHi)2
          c =
IV.   Meteorological  and Diffusion  Parameters:
     The wind speed  is  assumed  to  be  horizontally  uniform  but  varies
     with height as  a power function  in  which  the  power  (q)  is  given
     by the atmospheric stability.   In order to  account  for  the  effect
     of the wind profile on the growing  vertical dimension of  the  plume
     from a point source, a "mean  equivalent wind  speed" is  defined.
     The height in the  wind profile  at which the "mean equivalent  wind
     speed" occurs was  found to be z" = 0.62a  .
     For Hi + AHi £ 0.62(az).

          u = S(Hi + AH..)q

     For H. + AH. >  0.62(a )
          1     "•       .  z i
          u = S|0.62(az)

-------
                                                                a
     6 may be estimated from a wind speed u  at height z .  6  =  — -
                                           a                   z
                                                                a
     q varies from 0.15 for unstable conditions to 0.50 for stable
     conditions.
     The diffusion parameters are given in terms of distance  x.  and
     Brookhaven gustiness classes (Singer and Smith 1966).
                            (oz).  - bk x,

     There is a set of ak, b.  and  p.  values specified for each  of the
     4 Brookhaven gustiness classes as follows:
Brookhaven Gustiness Class
B2
Bl
C
D
ak
0.40
0.36
0.32
0.31
bk
0.41
0.33
0.22
0.06
Pk
0.91
0.86
0.78
0.71
     (o )   is further limited by the mixing layer ceiling  restriction

     that  (az)  ±Y25 '
V.    Validation Results:
     Calculated and observed 6-hour mean SO,, concentrations were  com-
     pared.   The data was selected from 20 sources,  5  S0?  sampling
     locations, Weather Bureau airport observations, supplementing  wind
     data and aircraft observations.   The mean  observed and calculated
     concentrations for all  6-hour periods at each  location were:

-------
Station
Ferry
Whitney
Count
Tempi e
Fairhaven
Mean
Observed
.049
.029
.035
.075
.048
Mean
Calculated
.043
.014
.008
.024
.033
Number of
Comparisons
31
47
31
8
8

-------
  Appendix B

-------
                              Section 1.0
                              INTRODUCTION

          This appendix summarizes  the St.  Louis  data which  have been
obtained and identifies their sources.
          Punched cards were received from  the  government  (Division of
Meteorology, National  Environmental  Research  Center, Research Triangle
Park, EPA) which contain emission  information,  meteorological observa-
tions, air quality observations, and algorithms for estimating S02
emission rates for St.  Louis.   The  data covered the period
1400 December 1, 1964  to 1400 February 28,  1965.  The characteristics
and sources of these data are briefly reviewed  below.

-------
                              Section 2.0
                             EMISSION DATA

          Turner (1968b) has developed an algorithm for estimating S02
emissions as a function of location, temperature, time of day and day of
week.  This algorithm represents emissions in terms of two types of sources,
point sources and area sources.  The computation formulas are presented
below for each type of source both in terms of the input provided by the
punch cards and in terms of the original information which is the basis
for the punched card data.  Much of the original information is not
available; however, formulations in terms of original data help to
indicate the nature of input errors and uncertainties associated with
the data and the derived emission estimates.

2.1  POINT SOURCES
          Information regarding utility power plants and industrial
plants are available in different levels of detail.  As a result, each
is discussed separately.

2.1.1  Industrial  Sources
          Industrial  SOp emissions are the sum of emissions from process
and space heating fuel  consumption.  The emissions from process fuel
requirements are estimated by multiplying a peak process emission rate by
utilization factors related to the day of the week and the hour of the
day.   The emissions from space heating requirements are determined in
terms of the outside  air temperature deficit from 65°F.  The algorithm

-------
 used  for St. Louis  is:

          Q(t) = Qp Fd(t) Fh(t) + qx Dc(t)                              (1)

 where
          Q(t) = SCL emission rate
            Q  = peak process SOg emission rate
         F.(t) = fraction of peak for day of week
         Fh(t) = fraction of peak for hour of day
            q  = heating fuel S0? emission rate per degree (i.e., per
             J\                  £
                 degree of ambient air temperature below 65°F)
         Dc(t) = 65 - [T(t) + Ac(t)]
                 T(t) = ambient air temperature, °F
                 Ar(t)= commerical correction factor, °F (Turner 1968a).
                  c
          The quantities Q , F.(T) and F. (t) were obtained by Turner from
 survey questionnaires submitted by plant operators.  The quantity qv may
                                                                   A
 be obtained from annual  emission information by the following formulae:

          <
-------
          q  = S09 emission rate per degree
           A     C-


       (F ). = fraction of annual quantity of fuel j used in winter

           J   season



          D  = winter season degree days.
           W




In terms of initial source data:





          Q(t) = Qp Fd(t) Fh(t) + [65 - T(t) - Ac(t)] \-  \  Wj Sj      (4)






          In addition to the emission rate parameters, i.e., Q , F^,



Fh, q  and A , the furnished punched card data included location
 11   A      w


coordinates of the source, the physical height of the source stack



(effective height if no plume rise data is given) and the plume-rise,



wind-speed product.  The plume-rise, wind-speed product was estimated



by means of Holland's (1953) formula using data obtained in the course



of an inventory survey.  Only the resultant product data were available



for this study.





2.1.2  Power Plant Sources



          Power plant SOp emissions were estimated by two different



methods, each developed to fit a certain type of available data.  For



four plants, stack operating characteristics were obtained as a function



of plant output.  For these plants hourly outputs in megawatts were



available for the entire data period.  For one plant this information



was broken down by generating unit.  The information included graphs



of fuel  weight flow rate, stack temperature and stack exit gas volume



flow rate as functions of power output.  The fuel flow rates were

-------
found to be appropriately represented by a linear relationship of the
form
          F = A1 + A2 L                                                 (5)
where     F = fuel weight flow rate, Ib/min
          L = power output, megawatts
      A,,A2 = empirical parameters.
The stack temperature and volume flow rate were also estimated by a
linear relationship with power output.   However, it was found necessary
to divide the range of power outputs from zero to a peak value into
3 equal parts and to use a linear approximation over each part or class
of the range.  Two values of stack temperature and of stack gas flow
rate were selected to define the end points of a linear approximation
for each class of power output values.   However, a single end point
was selected for adjacent classes.  As  a result, four values of stack
temperature and flow rate and the peak  power output allow one to
construct a linear approximation of these parameters as a function of
power output.  Specifically,

          Ts • T» + T^TT 
-------
          T  = stack temperature for power load of L ,  °F
           Jt                                        X»
          T  = stack temperature for power load of L  + •=• L
           u   (upper limit of class), °F.          £   J  p

Similarly, the stack volume flow rate for power output L lying in the
power output class with lower limit L  is
                                     J6

          vs • \ + TJ/T 'vu - V
where     V  = stack gas volume flow rate, 10  ft /min
                                                                  fi   *?
          V  = stack gas volume flow rate for power load of L , 10  ft /min
           J6                                                 J6
          V  = stack gas volume flow rate for power load of L  + •*• L ,
           u     c   o                                       a   o  p
               10° fr/min.

Values of the class limits and the peak power load for seven emission
points in the St. Louis area are given in Table B-l .  Values of the
empirical parameters for estimating fuel  weight flow rate are also shown.
The fuel flow rate may be converted to an S0? emission  rate by means of
a proper SOp emission factor and the sulfur content of  the fuel  as
follows:
where     Q = S02 emission rate, Ib/min
          F = fuel weight flow rate, Ib/min
          E = S02 emission factor, Ib S02/lb S (~ 2)
          S = sulfur content of fuel, percent.

-------
Table B-l.  Stack Emission Parameters for St.  Louis Power Plants (1964-65)



Plant
Meramec
Meramec
Meramec
Venice
Cahokia
Ashley



Unit
Number
1 and 2
3
4



Coefficient of
Fuel Flow Rate
(F, Ib/min)
F=A!+A2L
L=Power output, mw
Al
50
100
100
20
0
0
A2
10.89
10.43
10.75
13.0
16.67
1.536

Peak
Fuel Flow
Rate,
Ib/min
L
P
150
300
405
480
150
1500



Stack Temperature
Class Limits, F
Tl
281
242
236
252
350
296
T2
294
262
267
293
406
323
T3
312
290
323
312
420
342
T4
343
336
372
352
434
356


Stack Flow Rate
Class Limits,
106 ft3/min
Vl
40
210
260
30
20
5
V2
170
375
490
625
260
225
V3
320
625
840
1180
520
440
V4
500
1015
1460
1840
835
665

-------
          For another power plant site, an average emission rate was
estimated for each two-hour period of the day for each of four emission
sites.  A corresponding estimate of the wind speed, plume rise product
was also made for each site.  These estimates were assumed to be repre-
sentative of all days in the data period.  The estimates were derived
by government personnel based on discussions with the plant operator.
The estimates were part of the set of punched card data furnished by
the government.
          In addition to the emission data described above, the govern-
ment furnished punched card data included location coordinates and
physical stack heights.
2.2  AREA SOURCES
          Area source emissions for SOp were available for St. Louis in
5000 ft by 5000 ft grid squares.  Emission data for several categories
of sources (including residential, commercial, river vessels, auto-
mobiles, railroads, backyard burning and industrial) were available on
punched cards for each grid square.  The information amounted to a
parameter estimate for use in the following algorithm developed by
Turner (1968b):
Q(t) = Qr + qr Dr(t) + Qc Fc(t) + qc Dc(t) + QV + Q
                                                             a
         Dr(t) = 65 - T(t) - Ar(t)
         Dc(t) = 65 - T(t) - Ac(t)

-------
where     Q(t) = SCL emission rate
            Q  = base residential S02 emission rate
            q  = residential heating SCL emission rate per degree
          T(t) = ambient air temperature
         Ar(t) = residential correction factor (Turner 1968a)
         A (t) = commercial correction factor (Turner 1968a)
            Q  = base commercial S02 emission rate
         FJt) = commercial diurnal variation factor
          c
            qc = commercial heating SCL emission rate per degree
            Q  = river vessel SCL emission rate
            CL = base automotive S00 emission rate
             a                     c.
         FJt) = automotive diurnal variation factor
          d
            Q., = railroad S00 emission rate
             W              c.
            Q.  = backyard burning S02 emission rate
            qx = industrial heating SCL emission rate per degree
            Q  = base industrial process emission rate
               = industrial day of week variation factor
               = industrial diurnal variation factor

          The parameters and variables in the above algorithm reflect
a combination of basic data and assumptions.  As a result, an attempt
has been made to divide the above parameters into more fundamental  com-
ponents so that assumed and reported or observed values can be more
easily identified.   In the notation below subscripts i and j are intro-
duced on parameters which vary from one area source to another.  Subscript

-------
k denotes fuel types such as gas, oil and coal.  Subscript a is used to

designate an annual or national average.
               J   DaRa  k-1  EkHk

where     H  = average annual U.S. household space heating energy
               requirement

          D= = average annual U.S. degree days
           a
          Ra = average number of rooms per U.S. household
           a
         R. . = average number of rooms per dwelling unit in grid
           J   square (i ,j)

          $k = sulfur dioxide emitted per unit of fuel k

          E.  = heating efficiency of fuel k

          H.  = heat content of fuel k

      (N.).. = number of residential dwelling units using fuel k in
           J   grid square (i ,j)

           K = number of fuels.


          (n ).. =    s   /  j   p-
          wr'ij   1 - FS VHr'ij  w

where     F  = summer day fuel consumption as fraction of average
               winter day

          F" = average winter degree day.
           W
where     At  = duration of season

          C. .  = number of commercial sources in grid square (i,j)
            ' J
          W^  = annual quantity of fuel k used by £th source

       (F ).  = fraction of annual quantity of fuel  k used by £th
                source used in summer season

           Sk = sulfur dioxide emitted per unit of fuel k.


                                   B-10

-------
where     D,, = winter season degree days
           W
      (F ).   = fraction of annual quantity of fuel k used by £th source
               in winter season.
                       K     !ii
                   I   i\      I j
          (a )   = -—  T.  S   £  (F ).   W.                               M4}
          »Ty'ii   n       \f     * w'ko  1
-------
2.3  SUMMARY OF ST. LOUIS EMISSION PARAMETERS
          Table B-2 lists the source parameters for estimating SOg emission
rates for St. Louis point sources, the basis of the parameter estimate and
the source of the information.  Table B-3 shows the derived average
diurnal variations in power plant SOp emission rates and plume rise factors
for one plant with four emission sites.  Table B-4 shows the diurnal
variation in the commerical  and residential  temperature corrections for
space heating requirements.   Table B-5 lists the area source parameters
available for estimating SC^ emission rates  for St. Louis area sources.
As in Table B-2, the basis for the estimate  and the source of information
are also included.  Table B-6 shows the diurnal variation in the  com-
merical base emission factor and in the automotive emission factor.
Miscellaneous additional emission parameters are listed in Tables B-7,
B-8, and B-9.

-------
Table B-2.  Point Source Emission Data
Source Parameter
QP
*d(*)
Fh(t)
W.
SJ
Da
(Fw).
Dw
Stack height
Effective stack
height
Plume rise-wind
speed product
Q(t) for special
power plant site
AcW
T(t)
L.Lg.Lp
A1'A2
Te>Tu
VC'Vu
Basis of Estimate
Annual SC>2 emissions
Usual days worked per week
Usual shifts worked per day
Annual fuel consumption
Chemical analyses
Annual degree days
Percent Wj used in winter
Winter season degree days
Stack height
Stack height plus judgment
Stack diameter, exit gas temp.
and flow rate
Fuel use, output loads
Temperature correlation with
steam heat loads
Airport hourly temp. obs.
Plant output records
Plant operating characteristics
Stack operating characteristics
Stack operating characteristics
Source of
Information
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
NOAA
Questionnaire
NOAA
Questionnaire
Questionnaire

Plant oper.
Turner (1968a)
NOAA
St. Louis
Union Elec. Co.
St. Louis
Union Elec. Co.
St. Louis
Union Elec. Co.
St. Louis
Union Elec. Co.
Parameter Values
Stored on punched cards
Stored (Saturday and Sunday listed
as fraction of week day)
Stored (midnight and swing shifts
listed as fraction of day shift)
Contained in q (stored on punched
cards)
See Table B-8
Contained in qx (stored on punched
cards)
Contained in qx (stored on punched
cards)
Contained in q (stored on punched
cards)
Stored on punched cards
Stored on punched cards
Stored on punched cards ( also see
Table B-3)
See Table B-3
See Table B-4
Stored on punched cards
Stored on punched cards
(L , see Table B-l)
See Table B-l
See Table B-l
See Table B-l

-------
Table B-3.  Diurnal SO, Emission Rates and Wind Speed- Plume Rise
    Products for Four Emission Sites of a St. Louis Power Plant

Two
Period
Ending
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Stack A

Emission
Rate,
g/sec
106
106
106
106
529
423
353
212
176
318
176
106
Wind Speed
Plume Rise
Product,
m /sec
40
40
40
40
201
161
134
80
67
120
67
40
Stack B

Emission
Rate,
g/sec
106
106
106
106
529
529
529
529
529
529
529
106
Wind Speed
Plume Rise
Product,
2
m /sec
40
40
40
40
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
40
Stack C

Emission
Rate,
g/sec
282
282
282
600
706
706
706
706
706
706
706
282
Wind Speed
Plume Rise
Product,
m2/sec
102
102
102
217
256
256
256
256
256
256
256
102
Stack D

Emission
Rate,
g/sec
1341
1552
2364
2681
2681
2681
2681
2681
2681
2681
2681
1799
Wind Speed
Plume Rise
Product.
2
m /sec
504
583
888
1007
1007
1007
1007
1007
1007
1007
1007
676

-------
Table B-4. Diurnal Residential and Commercial Temperature Corrections (Turner, 1968a)
Hour
Ending
0100
0200
0300
0400
0500
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
AC<'>
Commercial Temperature Corrections, F
Weekday
13.32
13.23
12.54
10.43
5.64
-1.75
-8.04
-11.69
-13.91
-12.94
-12.43
-12.53
-12.39
-11.19
-9.62
-7.88
-4.37
0.56
4.55
6.62
9.08
10.41
11.53
13.19
Saturday
17.03
18.19
16.30
14.55
10.17
3.19
-0. 13
-4.13
-7.14
-6.74
-7.00
-6.98
-7.11
-7.01
-3.84
-1.84
-0.66
2.60
5.97
7.92
8.90
11.47
13.48
15.86
Sunday
16.87
17.82
18.43
16.90
15.15
12.86
9.47
8.63
6.01
4.82
2.64
1.38
0.30
0.55
2.98
4.49
6.25
8.70
9.92
10.10
10.47
12.01
12.23
12.03
*r(t>
Residential Temperature Corrections, F
Weekday
11.11
10.61
9.69
8.54
7.08
3.13
-2.15
-7.32
-7.61
-8.85
-8.44
-7.46
-6.73
-6.25
-5.11
-4.08
-3.17
-2.41
-0.77
-0.01
2.56
3.22
5.33
9.11
Saturday
10.08
11.97
9.69
8.43
6.65
4.24
1.85
-0.73
-6.30
-8.01
-7.26
-9.34
-8.28
-8.07
-7.78
-6.14
-5.28
-3.82
-1.73
-0.86
2.31
3.85
5.71
8.74
Sunday
8.11
9.07
9.12
8.15
6.64
4.76
1.83
0.15
-5.60
-7.61
-8.72
-7.84
-5.55
-5.87
-4.09
-2.86
-1.50
-1.43
-0.41
-0.61
-1.49
-0.60
1.23
4.78

-------
Table B-5.  Area Source Emission Parameters
Source Parameter
F
s
H
a
. Da
Na
i3
kl
(Fw)kl
(Qv)ij
(Qa)..
Fa(t)
(9w)ij
(Qb)ij
[Fd(t)]j.
[FhWhj
(QP)e
Dw
T(t)
Ar(t)

Basis of Estimate
Fuel company information
National fuel data
National meteorological data
Census information
1960 Census (St. Louis SMS A1 s)
1960 Census (St. Louis SMSA's)
Assumed fuel heat content
Assumed combustion efficiency
Average fuel sulfur content
Emission survey data
Reported annual fuel use
Reported % of W, , used in
summer
Reported % of Wkl used in
winter
Not reported
Not reported
Not reported
Not reported
Not reported
Usual industry working days
Usual industry working shifts
Reported annual SC>2 emissions
1934 to 1964 St. Louis temp, data
Hourly airport temperature
Temperature correlations with
gas sendouts
Source of
Information
La Clede Gas Co.
Landsberg et al,
1963
Landsberg et al,
1963
Stat. Abstracts
1962
U. S. Census
Bureau
U. S. Census
Bureau
Turner, 1968b
Turner, 1968b
Turner, 1968b
Not reported
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
Not reported
Not reported
Not reported
Not reported
Not reported
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
Questionnaire
NOAA
NOAA
Turner, 1968 a

Parameter Values
0.2
70 x 106 Btu/yr
4600 °F days/yr
4. 9 rooms/household
Contained in Q and q
Contained in Q and q
See Table B-7
See Table B-7
See Table B-8
See Table B-6
Contained in Qc, q^, and qx
(stored on 1200 punched cards
Contained in Qc and q^ (stored
on 1200 punched cards)
Contained in q and q (stored
on 1200 punched cards)
Stored on 1200 punched cards
Stored on 1200 punched cards
See Table B-6
Stored on 1200 punched cards
Stored on 1200 punched cards
Stored on 1200 punched cards
Stored on 1200 punched cards
Contained in Q (stored on
1200 punched cards)
31.6°F
Stored on punched cards
See Table B-3

                                                     (Continued)

-------
Table B-5.  Area Source Emission Parameters (Concluded)
Source Parameter
Ac(t)
Dw
Source height
Basis of Estimate
Temperature correlations with
steam heat loads
Winter season airport tempera-
ture
Estimate guided by building
heights
Source of
Information
Turner, 1968a
NOAA
Visual reports
Parameter Values
See Table B-3
Contained in q and q (stored
on 1200 punched cards)
Stored on 1200 punched cards

-------
Table B-6. Base Commercial and Automotive Emission Factors for St. Louis Area Sources
Two Hour
Period
Ending
0200
0400
0600
0800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Fc(t)
Fraction of Mean Commercial
Base Emission Rate
0.20
0.20
0.20
1.96
1.82
1.75
1.69
1.62
1.48
0.68
0.20
0.20
Fa(t)
Fraction of Mean Automotive
Emission Rate
0.176
0.037
0.111
1.575
2.261
1.001
0.788
1.325
2.632
1.084
0.573
0.417

-------
Table B-7.  Miscellaneous Emission Parameters
Area Source Emission Data

     1.  Average energy use for space heating per household (USA wide)  =

         70 x 106 Btu/yr

         Ref:  Resources in America's Future; H.  H.  Landberf,  L.L.  Fischran,
               J. T. Fisher; Johns Hopkins  Press, 1963  (Baltimore,  Md.).

     2.  Average degree days for the country = 4600  °F  day/yr

         Ref:  ditto (1)

     3.  Average size of household =4.9 rooms/dwelling unit

         Ref:  Statistical  Abstracts of U.S.; 1962;  Department of Commerce,
               Bureau of Census, Washington, D.C.

     4.  Fossil  fuel characteristics:

         Fuel       Heat Content (H,J        Combustion Efficiency  (E,J
          " " "        " " '              K          •~1--|    -L -..».-         **  -  |l^

         Coal       26 x 106 Btu/ton                 0.5

         Oil         145,000 Btu/gal                   0.6

         Gas           1,000 Btu/ft3                  0.75

     5.  Summer fuel use =  20%  of winter day

     6.  Average St. Louis  winter degree day = 31.6  °F  day

         Ref:  Dec,  Jan, Feb 1934 to 1964 Weather Bureau records.

     7.  Information from U.S.  Census of Housing  (estimated from SMSA
         data)  obtained for source area:

         (a)   Number of dwelling units
         (b)   Rooms  per dwelling unit
         (c)   Number of coal  burning units
         (d)   Number of gas burning units
         (e)   Number of oil  burning units
         (f)   Population.

     8.  Survey questionnaire information requested  in  St.  Louis  Intra-
         state State Study  (Turner 1968b):

         (a)   Source Location
         (b)   Type of fuel  and  annual  use required
         (c)   Percent used  by season
         (d)   Stack  height
         (e)   Process emissions  in tons  per  year.

-------
             Table B-8.  St. Louis SO- Emission Parameters








Fuel
Coal
Oil

Gas

Fuel Requirements

For average
U. S. household
(4-9 rooms/
household) ,
units per house-
hold per
degree day
0. 0012 tons
0. 18 gal

22. 5 ft3





For average
U. S. room,
units per room
per degree day
2.45xlO"4tons
3. 67X10" 2 gal

4. 59 ft3

SO2 Emission




SO2 emission
lbSO2
per unit
(Sk)
38p per ton
157p per
103 gal
2. 86s per
102 ft3



SO2 heating
emission rate,
grams per
second per room
per degree ^a'
4. 88pxlO~5
3.025pxl0~5

6. 89s x ID' 8

St. Louis Values





Sulfur
content
3.3%
1.5%

0.3 grains
per 102 ft3

SO2 heating
emission rate,
grams per
second per room
per degree *a'
1.61X10"4
4. 54X10" 5

2. 08X10" 8

 p = % sulfur content by weight

 s = grains sulfur content per 100 ft

   .                                                             o
 (a) degree = number degrees average outside temperature is below 65 F
Table B-9. Average Sulfur Content of Coal Used by St. Louis Power Plants
Plant
Meramec
Venice
Cahokia
Ashley
Sulfur Content, %
2.86
2.52
1.96
3.39

-------
                              Section 3.0

                          METEOROLOGICAL DATA


          The following meteorological  data were obtained for the St.  Louis

area:


          1.  Hourly Lambert Field aviation weather observations

          2.  Hourly Scott Field aviation weather observations

          3.  Lindbergh High School  wind, temperature and relative
              humidity hourly averages  from strip charts

          4.  State Police Station C hourly averages of wind,
              temperature and relative  humidity

          5.  Hazelwood High School  hourly averages of wind, temperature
              and relative humidity

          6.  TV tower hourly averages  of temperature and wind at
              3 heights and a bivane measured standard deviation in
              wind direction.


          The parameters and units which are available on punch cards  are

listed in Tables B-10 and B-ll.

-------
 Table B-10.  Summary of St. Louis Hourly Airport Weather Observations
              (Available for Lambert Field and Scott Field)
     Parameter
             Units
      Ceiling

     Sky Cover

     Visibility

 Weather Elements

    Temperature

     Dew Point

  Wind Direction

    Wind Speed

     Peak Gust

 Altimeter Setting

    Precipitation
(Lambert Field Only)
   Hundreds of Feet or Code

             Code

        Tenths of Mile

             Code
        Tens of Degrees

            Knots

            Knots

Hundredths of Inches of Mercury

     Hundredths of Inches

-------
Table 11.  Hourly Average Weather Observations
Observation Point
Lindbergh HS
Lindbergh HS
Lindbergh HS
Lindbergh HS
State Patrol Station C
State Patrol Station C
State Patrol Station C
State Patrol Station C
Hazelwood HS
Hazelwood HS
Hazelwood HS
Hazelwood HS
TV Tower, 127 ft
TV Tower, 127 ft
TV Tower, 255 ft
TV Tower, 255 ft
TV Tower, 459 ft
TV Tower, 459 ft
TV Tower 124 ft
TV Tower
TV Tower
TV Tower
TV Tower
Parameter
Wind speed
Wind direction
Temperature
Relative humidity
Wind speed
Wind direction
Temperature
Relative humidity
Wind speed
Wind direction
Temperature
Relative humidity
Wind speed
Wind direction
Wind speed
Wind direction
Wind speed
Wind direction
Temperature
124 ft to 249 ft
temperature gradient
124 ft to 452 ft
temperature gradient
249 ft to 452 ft
temperature gradient
Bivane standard
deviation
Units
Miles per hour
Tens of degrees
°F
%
Miles per hour
Tens of degrees
°F
%
Miles per hour
Tens of degrees
°F
%
Miles per hour
Tens of degrees
Miles per hour
Tens of degrees
Miles per hour
Tens of degrees
°F
°F
°F
°F
degrees

-------
                              Section 4.0
                            AIR QUALITY DATA

          Two types of SCL measurements are available for St.  Louis.
Ten stations with average two-hour observations are available, and
40 stations with average 24-hour observations are available.   The
sampling period for 24-hour observations began and ended at 2  p.m.
daily.  This time of day permits bubbler collectors to be switched at
a time when ambient concentrations are expected to be a minimum.   Both
2-hour and 24-hour samplers used a bubbler collection assembly to
measure SOp concentrations.  The basic National Air Sampling Network  (NASN)
gas sampling bubbler, with slight modifications, was used.   Each  bubbler
consisted of a polypropylene centrifuge tube (4 inches long by 1  inch
diameter) fitted with a two-hole rubber stopper.  A glass tube extended
to approximately 5/16-inch from the bottom of the bubbler tube.   The
airflow was regulated with a standard Gel man orifice assembly.  Flow
rate determinations were made weekly with a calibrated flow meter.  In
the two-hour samplers approximately 120 liters of air was bubbled through
the sampler each two hours.  An external vacuum pump draws  air through
the bubbler where sulfur dioxide is stripped from the air stream  by the
complexing action of sodium tetrachloro-mercurate absorbing reagent.  The
collected samples were transported to a laboratory where they  were
analyzed for S02 concentrations.  Twelve two-hour samples were picked
up for analysis each day and analyzed in a specially set up local
laboratory.  The analytical method used was that of West and Gaeke as
modified by Welch and Terry.  Duplicate sets of 24-hour samples were

-------
available at the same locations  as  the  two-hour samples.   A  comparison
of the 24-hour concentrations measured  by two-hour  samplers  and by  the
24-hour samplers revealed that two-hour samplers  averaged  about 15  per-
cent higher than the 24-hour samplers.

-------
                               Section 5.0


                  ST.  LOUIS PREPROCESSING PROGRAM LISTINGS


C ST LOUIS DATA
      DIMENSION TFR(24,3), TFC I ( 24 , 3 ) , DFC ( 24 ),DFA(24),SULFR(7),PLOAD(8)
      DIMENSION HA(1200),Z(3),TFR2(24),TFCI2(24),HA2(380)
      DIMt.MSION XR<50) ,YR(50),ZR(50),UBS02(50)  ,XP(51),YP(5 1 )
      DIMENSION ZP(51),QP(51),CAS02(40),QB(1200),QRH(1200),OCB{1200 ) ,
     1QCIH< 1200),QAU(1200),QSA(1200),SATA( 1200) ,SUNA(1200),SMI DAI 1200),
     2 SWIGA(1200) ,QIJ(3600)
      EQUIVALENCE (TFR2(1) ,TFR(1,3)),(TFCI 2(1),TFCI(1,3 ) ),(HA2(1),HA(821
     1) )
      DATA DLAST/22814./
      DATA NH/3/
      DATA Z/20.,30.,45./
      DATA DLTA/1524./
      DATA NRECP/50/
      DATA NR1/40/
      DATA CAS02/40*0./
      DATA GX/30./
      DATA GY/40./
      DATA NIPS/44/
      DATA NUS/7/
      DATA NRPNT/51/
      DATA XP / 3.94,  9.32,14.04,14.88,14.60,19.20,18.76,20.26,19.92,
     1         20.84,22.00,24.88,24.38,26.52,31.00,16.52,16.96,13.84,
     2         16.08,15.46,18.00,18.14,18.38,19.14,20.88,20.86,21.14,
     3         20.96,21.90,21.82,21.88,21.62,22.72,24.46,23.54,24.62,
     4         26.14,29.86,18.16,18.68,22.34,22.36,22.38,22.40,10.84,
     5         10.80,10.76,10.74,19.88,19.41,19.67/
      DATA YP /13.20,28.80,26.88,12.34,13.50,18.20,22.66,17.06,16.52,
     1         38.14,19.56,34.76,34.70,34.66,30.20,21.56,15.84,  8.66,
     2         18.90,23.00,17.00,17.00,21.58,21.84,16.88,24.30,25.00,
     3         24.80,17.64,24.14,37.66,37.98,19.40,20.82,38.30,35.84,
     4         34.72,11.08,18.34,19.08,36.52,36.52,36.52,36.52,  2.84,
     5          2.85,  2.86, 2.87,21.78,17.50,19.87/
      DATA HA/343*20.,30.,29*20.,2*30.,29*20.,30.,22*20.,3*30.,3*20.,3*
     1 30.,20*20.,4*30.,2*20.,5*30.,21*20.,10*30.,21*20.,10*30.,20.,3*
     2 30.,16*20.,8*30.,2*40.,20.,4*30.,16*20.,2*30.,2*20.,3*30.,40.,50.
     3,3*20.,3*30.,15*20.,7*30.,2*40.,20.,30.,20.,3*30.,15*20.,9*30.,21*
     4 20.,8*30.,2*20.,30.,19*20.,30.,2*20.,3*30.,23*20.,2*30.,3*20.,2*
     5 30.,4*20.,3*30.,16*20.,30.,4*20.,30.,20.,30.,23*20.,3*30.,27*20./
      DATA HA2    /3*30.,29*20.,30.,221*20.,30.,28*20.,2*30.,26*30.,30.,
     1 20.,30.,27*20.,30.,38*20./
      DATA XR/19.42,20.16,18.66,20.24,17.72,21.18,18.12,20.76,16.22,20.4
     10, 16.52,22.48,18.04,22.32,16.32,20.42,14.14,21.02,14.16,22.44,14.9
     26,24.14,16.86,20.24,18.50,18.88,15.42,22.30,13.78,23.26,11.14,24.7
     36,10.34,27.10,10.68,26.04,13.96,23.54,14.74,16.64,18.66,16.32,14.1
     44,16.88,10.34,20.24,20.48,22.48,22.30,26.04/
      DATA YR/    20.86,20.06,19.16,22.36,20.14,21.20,22.50,19.20,21.16,
     117.88,18.92,18.64,17.76,16.64,24.12,25.20,21.46,23.84,20.26,20.64,
     218.04,19.78,15.88,15.80,28.42,14.94,27.88,26.86,25.06,25.04,23.64,
     323.22,20.34,19.98,17.18,17.06,16.06,14.52,14.32,13.04,19.16,24.12,
     421.46,15.88,20.34,22.36,17.88,18.64,26.86,17.06/
      DATA ZR/50*0./
      DATA TFR/  8.11,   9.07,  9.12,   8.15,  6.64,   4.76,   1.83,  0.15,
     1          -5.60, -7.61,  -8.72,  -7.84,  -5.55,  -5.87,  -4.09, -2.86,
     2           1.50, -1.43,  -0.41,  -0.61,  -1.49,  -0.60,   1.23,  4.78,
     3          11.11, 10.61,  9.69,   8.54,  7.08,   3.13,  -2.15, -7.32,
     4          -7.61, -8.85,  -8.44,  -7.46,  -6.73,  -6.25,  -5.11, -4.08,
     5          -3.17, -2.41,  -0.77,  -0.01,  2.56,   3.22,   5.33,  9.11/
      DATA TFR2/
     6          10.08, 11.97,  9.69,   8.43,  6.65,   4.24,   1.85, -0.73,
     7          -6.30, -8.01,  -7.26,  -9.34,  -8.28,  -8.07,  -7.78, -6.14,
     8          -5.28, -3.82,  -1.73,  -0.86,  2.31,   3.85,   5.71,  8.74/
      DATA TFCI/16.87, 17.82,  18.43,  16.90,  15.15,  12.86,   9.47,  8.63,
     1           6.01,   4.82,  2.64,   1.38,  0.30,   0.55,   2.98,  4.49,
     2           6.25,   8.70,  9.92,  10.10,  10.47,  12.01,  12.23, 12.03,
     3          13.32, 13.23,  12.54,  10.43,  5.64,  -1.75,  -8.04,-11.69,
     4         -13.91,-12.94,-12.43,-12.53,-12.39,-11.19,  -9.62, -7.88,

-------
      DATA TFCI2/
     6           17.03,  18.19,  16.30,  14.55,  10.17,   3.19,  -0.13, -4.13,
     7           -7.14,  -6.74,  -7.00,  -6.78,  -7.11,  -7.01,  -3.84, -1.84,
     8           -0.66,   2.60,   5.97,   7.92,   8.90,  11.47,  13.48, 15.86/
      DATA DFC/0.200,0.200,0.200,0.200,0.200,0.200,1.960,1.960,
     1          1.820,1.820,1.750,1.750,1.690,1.690,1.620,1.620,
     2          1.480,1.480,0.680,0.680,0.200,0.200,0.200,0.200/
      DATA DFA/0.176,0.176,0.037,0.037,0.111,0.111,1.575,1.575,
     1          2.261,2.261,1.001,1.001,0.788,0.788,1.325,1.325,
     2          2.632,2.632,1.084,1.084,0.573,0.573,0.417,0.4177
      DATA SULFR/4*2.863,2.517,1.963,3.3947
      DATA IfU/57
      DATA IW1/67
C XR,YR VALUES  IN LOCATIONS  41-50  ARE THE  LOCATIONS  FOR THE 2HR  SAMPLERS
C  IN THE SEQUENCE THE  2HR CONC  DBS ARE  LISTED  ON THE  DATA CARDS
C SULFR DATA IS  THE MEAN  VALUE  UF  12  WEEK  PERIOD
C  INPUT OUTPUT  DEVICE  NUMBERS  USED AS FOLLOWS
C               IR1 CARD  READER
C               IW1 ON LINE PRINTER
      REWIND 10
      REWIND 11
      REWIND 12
      REWIND 13
      REWIND 14
      REWIND 15
      REWIND 16
      1R1 = 5
      READ(IRlt9000)    IH1,IH2
 9000 FORMAT(10I5)
      DO 1 I=1,NRPNT
      XP(I) = 1524. * XP( I )
      YP( I) = 1524. * YP(I )
    1 CONTINUE
      CALL INA(QB,QRH,QCB,QCIH,QAU,QSA,SATA,SUNA,SMIDA,SWIGA,IR6,GX,GY)
      I I = IH1 - 1
       IF (II) 8,8,2
    2 CONTINUE
      DO 3 1=1,11
      READ (10)
      READ (11)
      READ (15)
      READ (16)
    3 CONTINUE
      II = 11/24
      IF (II)  8, 8,12
   12 CONTINUE
      DO 13 1=1,11
      READ (12)
   13 CONTINUE
      II = (IH1  - l)/2
      IF (II) 8,8,14
   14 CONTINUE
      DO 15 1=1,11
      READ (13)
   15 CONTINUE
    8 CONTINUE
      DO 2000 IRR = IH1,IH2
      JN = IRR
C  READ MET DATA
      CALL METIN( JN,YMDH,YEAR,AMNTH,DAY,HOUR,I DOW,WS,WH,P,WD,
     1 INDEX,CIGMX.SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR,TG,  TEMP)
      IF (I - 614) 11,10,11
   10 CONTINUE
      YMDH = 2704.
   11 CONTINUE
C  LOAD EMISSION DATA
      CALL SHIFT(ID,IS,IDOW,HOUR)

-------
      DDR = 65. - (TEMP + TFRUH.IDM
      IF (DDR) A,5,5
    4 DDR = 0.
    5 CONTINUE
      DDC = 65. - (TEMP + TFCI(IH,ID)»
      IF (DDC) 6,7,7
    6 DDC =0.
    7 CONTINUE
      CALL IEMIT(NIPS,WS,WH,P,DDC,IS,ID,IH,CIGMX,TG,ZP,QP)
C  CALL INPUT ROUTINE TO READ PLOAD DATA -INPLD
      CALL INPLDl JN,PLOAD,PMDH)
      IF( PMDH - YMDH) 100,200,100
  100 CONTINUE
      WRITElIW1,9200)YMDH,YEAR,PMDH
 9200 FORMAT(«0 DATE TIME GROUP FROM PLOAD DATA AND MET DATA DO NOT MATC
     IH*** MET DATA YMDH= ',F7.0,«  YEAR= • ,F3.0,/,58X,' PLOAD DATE GROU
     2P= «,F7.0,///)
  200 CONTINUE
      PLOAD(7) = PLOAD17) * 14.07 + 20. + PLOAD(8)
      IU = NIPS + 1
      CALL UEMIT(NIPS,NUS,TEMP,STAPR,TG,WS,WH,P,PLOAD,SULFR,CIGMX,ZP(IU)
     1,QP(IU))
      CALL AEMIT(HA,GX.GY,ID.IS,DDR,DDC,DFC(IH),DFA(IH),QB,QRH,QCB,OCIH,
     1QAU,QSA,SATA,SUNA,SMIDA,SWIGA,QIJ)
C  DETERMINE IF HOUR OF DATA IS ODD OR EVEN—IF ODD FILL THE S02 ARRAY
C  WITH ZEROS IF EVEN READ THE 2 HR S02 OBS
      DO 1300  NEO = 2,24,2
      FNEO = NEO
      IF (HOUR -FNEO) 1300,1400,1300
 1300 CONTINUE
      DO 1310 I=1,NRECP
      OBS02(I) = 0
 1310 CONTINUE
      GO TO 1200
 1400 CONTINUE
C  SUBROUTINE NS02 READS IN THE 2HRLY S02 OBSERVATIONS
      CALL NS02( JN,OBS02,SMDH3,NR1,NRECP)
      IF (SMDH3 - 120000.) 1420,1410,1410
 1410 CONTINUE
      SMDH3 = SMDH3 - 120000.
 1420 CONTINUE
C  CHECK 2HRLY DTG WITH MET DATA YMDH FOR CORRECT S02 OBS.
      IF ( YMDH - SMDH3) 1500,1700,1500
 1500 CONTINUE
C  WRITE ERROR MESSAGE FOR NONMATCHING DTG FROM 2 HR S02 OBS
      WRITE (IW1.9600) SMDH3,YMDH
 9600 FORMAT ('0 DATE-TIME FROM 2HR S02 OBS DOES NOT MATCH DATE-TIME OF
     1 MET DATA -  DTG FROM S02 IS ',F7.0,» DTG OF MET. IS ',F7.0///J
 1700 CONTINUE
      IF(HOUR - 14.) 1100,300,1100
  300 CONTINUE
C CALL IN 24 HOUR S02 OBSERVATIONS WITH DIG READ FROM EACH CARD
      CALL NS024 ( JN,OBS02,SMDH1,NR1)
      DTGC = SMDH1 - 120000.
      IF (DTGC ) 1000,1000,800
  800 CONTINUE
      IF ( DTGC - YMDH) 900,1200,900
  900 CONTINUE
      WRITE (IW1.9500) SMDH1.YMDH
 9500 FORMAT («0 DATE-TIME OF 24 HR S02 DATA READ BY NS024 DOES NOT MATC
     IH DATE-TIME OF MET. DATA  S02 DTG= ',F7.0,'   MET DTG= «,F7.0,///)
      GO TO  1200
 1000 CONTINUE
      IF ( YMDH - SMDH1) 900,1200,900
 1100 CONTINUE
      DO 1110 1=1,NR1
      OBS02U) = 0

-------
 1200 CONTINUE
       CALL      HROUT ( IW2,YMDH,YEAR,AMNTH,DAY,I DOW,HOUR,WS,WH,P,WD,
     1 INDEX,CIGMX,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR,TG, TEMP,NRECP,NR1,XR,YR,
     2 ZR,OBS02,CAS02,GX,GY,DLTA,NH,Z.NRPNT,XP,YP,ZP,QP)
      CALL OUTA(YMDH,GX,GY,NH,QIJ,IW3)
      WRITE (IW1,9700) YMDH
 9700 FORMAT (' RECORD WITH INDEX =•, FIO.O,1, WRITTEN ON UNIT 15 AND  16
     I1 )
      IF {YMDH - DLAST) 1800,2100,2100
 1800 CONTINUE
 2000 CONTINUE
 2100 CONTINUE
      END FILE 15
      END FILE 16
      REWIND 10
      REWIND 11
      REWIND 12
      REWIND 13
      REWIND 14
      REWIND 15
      REWIND 16
      CALL EXIT
      END
      SUBROUTINE AEMIT(HA,GX,GY,ID,IS,DDR,DDC,DFC,DFA,QB,QRH,QCB,QCIH,
     1QAU,QSA,SATA,SUNA,SMIDA,SWIGA,QIJ)
C THIS ROUTINE COMPUTES A THREE DIMENSIONAL ARRAY OF EMISSION RATES FOR
C AREA SOURCE
      DIMENSION QIJ(l),HA(1),QB(1),QRH(1),QCB(1),QCIH(1),QAU(1),QSA(1),
     1SATA(1),SUNA(1),SMIDA(1),SWIGA(1)
      NI = GX * GY
      DO 20 I=1,NI
C GET DAY-OF-WEEK EMISSION FACTOR
      GO TO (I,2t3) tlD
    1 DOWF = SUNA(I)
      GO TO A
    2 DOWF = 1.
      GO TO 4
    3 DOWF = SATAU )
    4 CONTINUE
C GET HOUR-OF-DAY EMISSION FACTOR
      GO TO (5.6,7),IS
    5 SHFTF = SMIDA(I)
      GO TO 8
    6 SHFTF = 1.
      GO TO 8
    7 SHFTF = SWlGAd )
    8 CONTINUE
      QA = QB(I) + QRH(I) * DDR + QCB(I) * DFC + QCIH(I) * DDC + QAU(I)
     1 * DFA + QSA(I) * DOWF * SHFTF
      QIJ(I ) = 0.
      K = I + NI
      QIJ(K) = 0.
      L = K + NI
      QIJ(L) = 0.
      IF (HA(I) - 30.) 9,10,11
    9 QIJU ) = QA
      GO TO 12
   10 QIJ(K) = QA
      GO TO 12
   11 QU(L) = QA
   12 CONTINUE
   20 CONTINUE
      RETURN

-------
      SUBROUTINE UEMI T ( NIPS,NUS , TBAR , PRESS , TG,U1 , Zl ,P , PLOAD , SULFR ,C IGMX ,
     1ZP,QP)
C                                  THIS ROUTINE COMPUTES EMISSION RATE  (
C AND EFFECTIVE HEIGHT (ZP) FOR UTILITY POINT SOURCES
C USES INPUTS
C              TBAR  -  AIR TEMPERATURE, DEG K
C             PRESS  -  AIR PRESSURE, IN HG
C              NUS   -  NUMBER OF STACKS
C             PLOAD  -  POWER LOAD, MEGAWATTS
C             SULFR  -  SULFUR CONTENT OF FUEL, PERCENT
C                 A  -  PARAMETERS OF FUEL - LOAD RELAT I ONSHI P , LB/MIN -
C                 B  -  PARAMETERS OF FLUE GAS TEMP - LOAD  RELATIONSHIP,
C                 C  -  PARAMETERS OF FLUE GAS FLOW RATE -  LOAD RELATION
      DIMENSION A(3,7),B(4,7),C(4,7) ,PLOAD(1) ,SULFR(1) ,HPT(7) , ZP(l) ,
     IQP(l)
      DATA EMIS/2./,FCON/0.075598/
      DATA A/ 50. ,10. 89 , 150., 50. ,10. 89 , 150. , 100. , 10. 43 , 300.,
     1       100. ,10. 75 , 405., 20. ,13.   , 480.,  O.,16.67 , 150.,
     2         0., 1.536, 1500. /
      DATA B/281., 294., 3 12., 343., 281., 294., 312., 343., 242., 262., 290., 336.
     1,      236., 267., 323., 372., 252., 293., 3 12. ,352. , 350. ,406. ,420., 434.
     2,      296. ,323. ,342. ,356. /
      DATA C/ 40., 170. ,320. ,500., 40. , 170. ,320. ,500. ,210. ,375. ,625. ,
     11015. ,260., 490., 840., 1460. , 30. , 625. ,1180. ,1840. ,20. , 260. , 520. , 835 .
     2,       5. ,225. ,440., 665. /
      DATA HPT/ 2*76. 5, 2* 106. 7, 72. 3, 100.3,56.27
C CONVERT TBAR FROM DEC F TO DEG K
      TEMP = (TBAR - 32) / 1.8 + 273.
C EMIS = GM S02 EMITTED PER GM SULFUR IN FUEL ANALYSIS
C FCON = FUEL UNIT CONVERSION FACTOR = (GM/LB) * (MIN/SEC)  * (1./100PER
      QCON = EMIS * FCON
      DO 20 1=1, NUS
C COMPUTE S02 EMISSION
      IF (PLOAD(I)) 2,2,3
    2 OP( I) = 0.
      GO TO 4
    3 CONTINUE
      FUEL = A(lil) + A(2,I) * PLOAD(I)
      QP(I) = QCON * SULFR(I) * FUEL
    4 CONTINUE
C COMPUTE FLUE GAS TEMPERATURE (DEG K) AND FLOW RATE  (CU. CM/SEC)
      CHKLD = PLOADl I ) / A(3,I )
      PLFR = CHKLD - 0.66667






C
C
C
IF (PLFR) 10,13,13
10 PLFR = CHKLD - 0.33333
IF (PLFR) 11,12,12
11 K2 = 2
FR = 3. * CHKLD
GO TO 15
12 K2 = 3
GO TO 14
13 K2 = 4
14 FR = 3. * PLFR
15 Kl = K2 - 1
STKTP = (B(K1,I) + FR * (B(K2,I) - B(K1,IM - 32.) / 1.8 +
STKFL = (C(K1,I) + FR * (C(K2,I) - C(K1,I))) * 471.95E3
COMPUTE HEAT EMISSION
CONSTANT . 00206495=2. 553 ( SP. HEAT (CONST. VOL ) /GAS CONST ) *33863.9
IN.HG132F) )*2.38848E-8(CAL/DYNE CM)




273.


(DYNE/SQ

      QHEAT = 0.00206495 * PRESS * STKFL * (STKTP - TEMP) / STKTP
      WS = Ul * (HPT(I) / Z1)**P
      CALL PLUMZITG, QHEAT, TEMP, HPT ( I),WS,ZP(I ) ,QP ( I ) ,C IGMX)
   20 CONTINUE
      RETURN

-------
c
c
      SUBROUTINE
 IEMIT(NIPS,Ul,Zl,P,DDC,IS,ID,IH,CIGMX,TG,ZPj,QP)
                   THIS ROUTINE COMPUTES EMISSION RATE
HEIGHT (ZP) FOR INDVSTRIAL POINT SOURCES
ZP( 1) ,QP(1)
QSI(44),QSI2(4),OHI(44),HPT(44),UDH(44)
SAT (44),SUN (44),SWIG (44),SMID (44)
Q(12,4),UDHS(12,4)
AND EFFECTIVE
    DIMENSION
    DIMENSION
    DIMENSION
    DIMENSION ...
    EQUIVALENCE (QSI(37),QSI2(1 ) )
DATA QHI/190.86,575.63, 75.45, 74.60, 1.29,200.31, 17.82,203.19,
1 60.00, 0.00,361.00, 0.00, 22.70, 7.24, 7.66, 15.25,
2 31.19, 09.01,101.23,189.38, 69.44, 0.00, 0.11,141.83,
3 20.73,238.94, 0.00, 22.32, 27.86,279.60,798.18,176.01,
4 6.78, 3.62,390.81,533.55, 0.00, 0.00, 24.95, 62. 37/
DATA QSI/ .0383, 35.0118, .0009,397.5426, 16.7393, 94.1626,
1 24.8305,390.6217,18.9670, 19.3968, 0.0 , 33.3890,
2 7.5876, 73.3152, 3.2161, 10.7800, 4.1580, 10.3950,
3 57.6870, 20.2691, 0.0 ,305.3670, 60.9396, 63.6274,
4 7.8490, 31.5156,162.7519, 4.9417, 26.3866,911.3780,
5 0.2635, 35.2936, 73.1896, 20.2018, 18. 7807 .334.0416/
DATA QSI2/585. 5721, 25. 6327, 23.1000, 12.9362/
DATA HPT /40., 20. ,7*40. ,15. ,20. ,4*40. ,49. ,19. ,47. ,4*75. ,2*55.,
1 3*75., 2*55., 2*75. ,2*55. , 75. , 3*55. ,75. , 59. ,64. ,3*76.2,
2 107. 5/
DATA UDH /O., 806., 0., 287., 0., 246. ,0. ,428. ,2*0., 487. ,10*0. ,218.,0.,
I 77. ,0., 97. ,106.
DATA SAT/3*0.,1., .99, 1.
1 ,0. ,1.,0. , l.,0.,
DATA SUN/3*0.,1.,.99, 1.
1 ,0. , l.,0. , 1. ,0. ,
DATA SWIG /4*1.,.99,13*1
DATA SMID /2*0.,2*1.,.99
1 2*1. /
DATA Q/4*106. ,529. ,423.,
1 106. ,3*282. ,600. ,7*706.
DATA UDHS/4*40.,201., 161
1 3*102. ,217. ,7*256. ,102.
DATA ISTAR/0/
IF (ISTAR) 31,29,31
29 CONTINUE
ISTAR = 1
DO 30 1=1,40
QHKI ) = 0.01 * QHK I )
30 CONTINUE
31 CONTINUE
DO 10 1=1, NIPS
J = I - 40
IF (J) 20,20,15
15 CONTINUE
QHI( I = 0
SATU = 1.
SUNU = 1.
SW1G( ) = 1.
SMID( ) = 1.
11 = IH + 1) / 2
QSK I = Q( 11, J)
UDH( I = UDHS(IltJ)
20 CONTINUE
,2*0.
,0.,1
6*1.,
,0.,1
6*1.,
. ,0. ,
,5*1.

353.,
,282.
.,134
,504.




















GET DAY-OF-WEEK EMISSION FACTOR,
GO TO (1,2, 3), ID
1 DOWF = SUN( I )
GO TO 4
2 DOWF = 1.
GO TO 4
3 DOWF = SAT( I )
4 CONTINUE







,202., 402. ,3*0. ,101. ,650. , 1030. , 3*0. /
.,0. ,1.,0. ,1. ,0. ,1. ,0. ,3*1. ,3*0. ,2*1.
0. ,2*1. ,0. ,2*1. /
. ,0.,1.,0.,1.,0.,1.,0.,3*1.,3*0.,2*1.
0. ,2*1. tO. ,2*1.7
8*1. ,.48,12*1.7
,0.,1.,0.,5*1.,3*0.,6*1.,.48,9*1.,0.,

212., 176., 318., 176. ,5*106. ,7*529. ,
,1341., 1552., 2364., 8*2681., 1799. /
. ,80., 67. ,120. ,67. ,5*40. ,7*201. ,40.,
,583., 888. ,8*1007., 676. 7




















1=SUNDAY, 2=WEEKDAY, 3=SATURDAY







-------
C GET HOUR-OF-DAY EMISSION FACTOR, 1=01-08, 2=09-16, 3=17-24
      GO TO (5,6,7),IS
    5 SHFTF = SMID(I)
      GO TO 8
    6 SHFTF = 1.
      GO TO 8
    7 SHFTF = SWIG(I)
    8 CONTINUE
      QP(I) = QHI(I)  * DDC + QSKI) * DOWF * SHFTF
      WS = Ul * (HPT(I)  /Z1)**P
      ZP(I) = UDH(I)/  WS + HPT(I )
      IF (TG - 999.)  9,13,9
    9 IF (TG) 13,13,11
   11 CONTINUE
      ANUM = UDH(I) /  (2.9 * WS)
      DZCRI = 2. * ANUM * SQRTUNUM * (TG + 0.0098) / (TG * CIGMX))
      IF (CIGMX - HPT(I) - DZCRI)  12,12,13
   12 QP(1 ) = 0
   13 CONTINUE
   10 CONTINUE
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE SHIFTlID,IS,KDOW,HOUR)
  DETERMINE DAY OF WEEK
      IF (KDOW - 2)  5,6,7
  SUNDAY AND HOLIDAY
    5 ID = 1
      GO TO 9
  WEEKDAY
    6 ID = 2
      GO TO 9
    7 IF (KDOW - 7) 6,8,5
  SATURDAY
    8 ID = 3
    9 CONTINUE
  DETERMINE SHIFT
      IF (HOUR - 9.) 10,11,11
  MIDNIGHT SHIFT (01 - 08)
   10 IS = 1
      GO TO 14
   11 IF (HOUR - 17.) 12,13,13
  DAY SHIFT (09 - 16)
   12 IS = 2
      GO TO 14
  SWING SHIFT (17 - 24)
   13 IS = 3
   14 CONTINUE
      RETURN

-------
    SUBROUTINE HROUT (IW2,YMDH,YEAR,AMNTHfDAY,I DOW,HOUR,WSfWHfPtWD,
   1 INDEX,CIGMX,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR,TG,AVTMP,NRECP,NR1,XR,YR,
   2 ZR,OBS02,CAS02.GX,GY.DLTA,NH,Z.NRPNTfXP,YP,ZP,QP)
    DIMENSION  XRCI),YR(1),ZRC1),OBS02(1),Z(I),XP(I),YPI 1),ZP(1),QPC1)
   1,CAS02(1)
    HRI TEC 15)    YMDH,YEAR,AMNTH»DAY,I DOW,HOUR.NRECP,NR1,(XR(N),N=1.
   1 NRECP).(YR(N),N=1.NRECP),(ZRIN),N=l,NRECP),(OBS02CN),N=1,NRECP),
   2 (CAS02CN),N=1,NR1),
   3  GX,GY,DLTA,NH,(Z(N),N=1,NH),NRPNT,(XP(N),N=1,NRPNT),(YP(N),N=1,
   4 NRPNT),CZP(N),N=1,NRPNT),(QP(N),N=l,NRPNT),WS,WH,P,WD,INDEX,
   5 AVTMP,CIGMX,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
    RETURN
    END
    SUBROUTINE INA (QB,RH,CB,QCIH ,AUM,QBA,SATA,SUNA,SMIDA, SWGA.I01,
   IGXtGY)
    DIMENSION QB(1),RH(1),CB(1),QCIH(1),    AUM(1),QBA(1),
   1            SATAIL)tSUNA(l),SWGA(l),SMIDA(l)
    NG = GX * GY
    DO 100 1= 1,NG
    READC 14)   RBtRHtI)VCB(I)tCHtVMfAUMd),RRM,BBM,
   1 QBA(I),QHA   ,SATA(I),SUNA(I),SWGA{I).SMIDACI)
    QB(I)  = RB + VM + RRM + BBM
    QCIHCI) = CH + QHA
100 CONTINUE
    RETURN
    END
    SUBROUTINE INPLD (IR2,PLOAD,PMDH)
    DIMENSION PLOAD(l)
    READC11)      PMDH,CPLOADCN),N=1,8)
    RETURN
    END
   L  A l^ L/ (_ /\
    RETURN
    END
                              YEAR,AMNTH,DAY,HOUR,IDOW,WS,WH,P,WD,
                              I,WGLD,STAPR,TG,AVTMP )
                              ITH,DAY,HOUR,I DOW,WS,WH,P,WD,
                              ItHGLDtSTAPRiTGtAVTMP
    SUBROUTINE NS02C  IRA,OBS02,SMDH3,NR1,NRECP)
    DIMENSION OBS02C1)
    Nl  = NR1 + 1
    READ (13)        SMDH3,(  OBS02CN),N=N1,NRECP)
    RETURN

-------
      SUBROUTINE NS024(IR3,OBS02, SMDH1,NR1)
      DIMENSION OBS02( 1)
      READ (12)    SMDH1,(OBS02(N),N=1,NR1)
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE OUTA(YMDH,GX,GY,NH,QIJ,IW3)
      DIMENSION QIJ(l)
      N = GX * GY * NH
      WRITE (16)         YMDH,GX,GY,NH,(QIJ(I),I=1,N)
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE PLUMZ(TG,QH,TBAR,STHGT,WS,EFFHT,QP,CIGMX)
C ROUTINE TO COMPUTE EFFECTIVE SOURCE HEIGHT USING BRIGGS PLUME RISE EQS
C INPUTS ARE
C              TG  -  VERTICAL TEMERATURE, GRADIENT, DEG K / METER
C              QH  -  HEAT EMISSION, CAL/SEC
C            TBAR  -  TEMPERATURE, DEG K
C           STHGT  -  STACK HEIGHT, METERS
C              WS  -  WIND SPEED AT STACK HEIGHT, METERS/SEC
C            DIST  -  TRAVEL DISTANCE, METERS
C PLUME RISE IS BASED ON TRAVEL DISTANCE OF FIVE TIMES DISTANCE AT WHICH
C TURBULENCE DOMINATES ENTRAINMENT, I.E. X/X* = 5
      F = 0.000037 * QH
C IF TG IS MISSING OR NON-POSITIVE, USE UNSTABLE OR NEUTRAL FORMULAS
      IF (TG - 999.) 1,4.4
    1 IF (TG + 0.008) 4,4,2
C COMPUTE STABILITY PARAMETER S
    2 THG = TG +0.0098
      S = 9.8 * THG / TBAR
C IF PLUME PENETRATES INVERSION, SET QP = 0
      IF (STHGT - CIGMX) 8,8,3
    3 QP = 0.
    8 CONTINUE
C COMPUTE STABLE PLUME RISE
      DH = 2.9 * (F / (WS * S))**0.33
      GO TO 10
C FIND RAPID RISE DISTANCE XI FOR NON-STABLE CONDITIONS
    4 IF (STHGT - 305.)  5,5,6
    5 XI = 2.16 * F**0.4 * STHGT**0.6
      GO TO 7
    6 XI = 67.3 * F**0.4
C COMPUTE NON-STABLE PLUME RISE
    7 CONTINUE
      XOX1 = 5.
      DH = 1.6 * F**0.33 * Xl**0.67 * (0.4 + 0.6*XOX1 + 2.2*XOX1*XOX1)
     I/ (WS * (1. + 0.8*XOX1)**2)
C ADD PLUME RISE TO STACK HEIGHT
   10 EFFHT = STHGT + DH
      RETURN

-------
 Appendix C




-------
                              Section 1.0
                             INTRODUCTION

         This appendix presents descriptions, sources  and summaries  of
SOp emission, meteorological, and observed SOp concentration  data  for
Chicago which were used in the validation analysis  of  the study  pre-
sented in the main body of this report.   The principal  data were obtained
on magnetic tape from Argonne National  Laboratory and  were generated by
their APICS data management system (Chamot,  et al.,  1970). Additional
data on source locations and emission inventory results were  obtained
on punched cards.  The data used in the  study cover the period 0000
January 1, 1967 to 2300 January 31, 1967.  Additional  data covering
the 13-month period of December 1966 to  December 1967  were obtained  but
not used.  A review of these data revealed irregularities in  the data
and large blocks of missing data.  It was assumed that representative
judgments could be made from the one-month sample.

-------
                               Section 2.0

                              EMISSION DATA


          Emission information is available for point sources (the larger

emission  sources) and a grid work of square areas one mile on a side.

Location  coordinates of the points and the areas are referenced to fixed
                             \
coordinates.   Information regarding each of these two types of sources

is discussed separately in subsequent paragraphs.  The development of

these  data  is  described in reports from Argonne National Laboratory

CCroke, et a.!., 1968a,b,c; Roberts, et al., 1970; Chamot, et al., 1970).


2.1  AREA SOURCE DATA

          For  each square mile area an estimate of the annual  SOp emis-

sion rate was  obtained for each of three classes of emitters.   These

include:

          Class I:   Low rise residential  structures consisting
                     of 19 or less dwelling units,

          Class II:  High rise residential  structures, consisting
                     of 20 or more dwelling units, and commercial
                     and institutional buildings, and

          Class III: Industrial plants not large enough to be
                     treated as individual  point emitters.

In addition to the annual emission rates,  estimates regarding  effective

stack heights  and diurnal variations in emission rates were generated

in Argonne's extensive study of Chicago emission data.  Algorithms for

estimating diurnal  variations in  emission  rates are given by Equations

(6), (7), and  (8) in the Table C-l.   In Equations  (6) and  (7), 20%

of the annual  emissions are attributed to hot water requirements  and

distributed evenly over the year.  The remaining emissions for Classes

I and II are attributed to space heating requirements and are  allocated

-------
              Table C-l.   Chicago Emission  Rate  Algorithms
              (Roberts,  et al.,  1970;  Chamot,  et al.,  1970)
  Utility Source Emission Rate Algortihms **

                                 Ni
                  Q.  = 0.1533 S .2  (w.).  (H.l.  +  B,)
                   J             I --I    J  '    I  I     »

  Industrial  Source Emission  Rate Algorithm**
      (0.1533  FCSC+.0.1097 F0SQ)   (Wp
  Additional  Source  Emission  Rate  Algorithms

    (1)   Uniform proration

                                     QA
                                Q  =  8760"*

    (2)   Degree  day  plus  hot  water
Q =
8760
                        (65-T)
                     24 H
                         D
     (3)   Pumping station  pattern
                                Q  =
                                    8760
  Area  Source  Emission  Rate  Algorithms

    (1)   Residential  or commercial  low  rise
                  Q  =
               Fw
              8760"
                                      (65-T-AR)  Uh
                                       DAHD
                                                          (D
                                                                    (2)
                                                          (3)
                                                         (4)
                                                                    (5)
                                                              (6)
 *8760 hours is one year                                      [continued
**0.1533 = 0.01 1368U)/240, where 3680 = Ib  S0?  emitted  per ton  sulfur
  in coal, 240 = heat content of coal  (therms/ton);  0.1097  = 0.01
  (15790)/1440, where 15790 = Ib S0? emitted per 1000  gal sulfur in  oil,
  1440 = heat content of oil  (therms/1000 gal).


-------
      Table C-l.   Chicago Emission Rate Algorithms (continued)
  (2)  Residential  or commercial  high rise
                Q =
                                -FW)  (65-T-Ac)
(7)
   (3) Industrial
                              Q =
                                  8760
(8)
Definition of Terms
              Q = emission rate, Ib/hr

             Q. = emission rate of jth stack in multiple stack
                  source, Ib/hr

              S = percentage of sulfur in fuel

          (w.). = fraction of emissions from ith generating unit
            J     going to jth stack

             L. = generating unit output, megawatts

             A.. = regression coefficient, therms/megawatt

             B. = regression coefficient, therms

             wi = fraction of emissions going to jth  stack
              •J

             F  = fraction of fuel  requirement  filled by coal
              \*

             F  = fraction of fuel  requirement  filled by oil

             S  = percentage of sulfur in coal  fuel
              c

             S  = percentage of sulfur in oil  fuel

             U  = fraction of average  monthly process fuel  used
                  during a particular  shift  (midnight, day  or
                  swing on a weekday,  Saturday  or Sunday (also
                  holiday))

             II  = fraction of maximum  process fuel  requirement
              m
                  used  during mth  month
                                                          (continued)

-------
      Table C-l.  Chicago Emission Rate Algorithms (concluded)
             L  = maximum process fuel usage rate, therms/hr
             L  = maximum space heating fuel usage rate, therms/hr
              T = temperature, °F
             Q. = annual S02 emission, Ib/yr
             U.  = fraction average hourly fuel  usage associated
                  with hth hour
       FW = 0.2 = fraction of annual  residential/commercial  fuel
                  usage attributed to hot water requirements
      DA = 6155 = annual degree days, °F day/yr
             HD = hours of fuel usage per day,  hr/day
             AD = Turner's residential heating  temperature correction,
              K   Op
             Ar = Turner's commercial heating temperature correction,
              C   op
Uh Values
  (1)  Pumping station pattern
                    Uh = 0.429  (hours 0 to 6)
                    Uh = 1.29  (hours 7 to 23)
  (2)  Area source
       Uh = 1.5 (T £ 5°F, hours 4 and 5)
                (5°F < T < 65°F, hours 6 and 7)
       Uh = 1.0 (T <. 5°F, hours 6 to  22)
                (5°F < T < 65°F, hours 8 to 22)
       Uh = 0   (T <_ 5°F, hours 0 to  3 and 23)
                (5°F < T < 65°F, hours 0 to 5 and 23)
                (T > 65°F, all hours)
Hp Values
                HD = 19  (T <5°F)
                H  =17  (T > 5°F)

-------
                                                        o
on the basis of outside air temperature deficit below 65 F.   Only the
first term is applicable in these equations when the outside air
temperature is over 65°F.   Equation (6) includes a "janitor" factor
U.  to account for "hold fire" periods after 10 PM and for a  50% increase
in the burn rate during the first two early morning start up hours
(starting at 4 AM when temperature is <5°F and 6 AM otherwise).
          The following effective source heights were used for each
class of emitters:
          Class                          Effective Source Height
             I                                      50 ft
            II                                     200 ft
           III                                     150 ft

          The original sources of the area source data were  as  follows:

          Class                         Data Source
             I         1968 survey by Markets and Rates Dept.  of
                       Peoples Gas, Light and Coke (PGLC) Co.
            II         1968 (Residential) and 1961 (Commercial)
                       surveys by PGLC Co.
           Ill         1963 survey of annual fuel use by Chicago
                       Dept.  of Air Pollution Control

2.2  POINT SOURCES
          Point sources are of two types: industrial and power  plants.
Data relating to power plant emissions include generator operating
characteristics, stack heights, location coordinates of the  plant site,
and the sulfur content of the fuel used.  Observed thermal input

-------
requirements (fulfilled by burning coal) for observed power output
were estimated by Argonne (Roberts, et al.,1970)  in the form :

          T =  AL+B
where     T =  thermal input requirement, BTU/hr
          L =  power output, megawatts
        A,B =  empirical parameters

The fitted coefficents and the hourly log of power output for the data
period were obtained from Argonne.  The percentage of the burned fuel
exhaust gases diverted to each plant stack (w.) were obtained for each
                                             J
generator unit.  This information is utilized in Equation (1) of the
Table C-l to estimate the emission rate from each stack.   The heat
content of coal is taken to be 240 therms/ton (a therm is 10  BTU's).

          The empirical parameters A and B, the fuel sulfur content, the
stack height, the plant location coordinates, and the generator-to-stack
exhaust coefficients (w.) are available on punched cards.  The hourly
                       J
power outputs for each generator are available on magnetic tape.
          Data relating to the larger industrial  emissions treated as
point sources include the process operating characteristics and fuel
requirements, the plant space heating requirements, the relative amounts
of each type fuel used to meet fuel requirements, the sulfur content of
each fuel, the percentage of exhaust gas allocated to each plant stack,
and the outside air temperature.  Fuel requirements for spacing heating
were estimated by Argonne to vary from zero at 55°F to a maximum peak

-------
value at -10°F. A linear relationship with outside air temperature is
assumed to be valid as follows:

          H   =  55"T   L
where     H   =  fuel requirements for space heat, therms/hr
          T   =  outside air temperature, °F
          L   =  peak space heating requirement, therms/hr

Fuel requirements for industrial processes are related to seasonal  and
diurnal operating characteristics by means of utilization factors
determined from survey questionnaires and interviews  with plant
operators processed by Argonne  (Roberts, et al.,  1970). The fuel
requirement may be stated as follows:
          Hp  •  Us Um Lp
where     H   =  fuel requirement for industrial  process,  therm/hr
          U  = shift utilization for shift of day (midnight, day or
               swing) and day of week, fraction of monthly utilization
          U   =  month utilization, fraction of peak rate
          L   =  peak fuel requirement for industrial  processes,
           "     therm/hr
          All of the above characteristics are reflected in the emission
rate algorithm of Equation (2) in Table C-l.   Outside air temperatures
for the data period are available on magnetic tape.   All other data and:
contained on punched cards.  The heat content of coal is taken to be
240 therms/ton.  The heat content of oil  is taken to be 1440 therms/
1000 gal.


-------
          Data were also collected regarding certain additional sources
which were considered appropriate for treatment as point sources but
for which the  available  data were not compatible with  the power plant  or
industrial emission algorithms.  The annual emissions were reported for
each source.   In addition each source was judged to conform to one of
three types of diurnal emission patterns.  These patterns consist of
uniform emission, hot water plus temperature dependence, and pumping
station pattern in which the nighttime  emission rate is about one-third
the daytime emission rate.   The algorithms for estimating emission rates
are listed as  Equations  (3), (4) and (5) in Table C-l.  The annual
emission rate  for each source and its classification by diurnal emis-
sion pattern are available on punched cards along with the source location
coordinates and stack heights.   Emissions are allocated equally among
stacks where more than one is present.
          Effective stack height was computed using Briggs'  (1969)
equations for plume rise and the reported stack height for each stack.
The heat content of exhaust gases was taken to be 15% of the thermal
fuel requirement computed for each source.  The amount allocated to each
stack is analogous to the emission rate allocated to each stack.
In the case of the additional point sources discussed above, an available
estimate of the sulfur content of the coal used by each source was used to
convert S02 emission rates to heat emission rates by the following equation:
                           240 Q
          He  =  0.15
W)
                             3680N
where     H   =  heat emission rate, therms/hr

-------
          Q  =  S02 emission rate, Ib/hr
          S  =  fuel sulfur content, percent
          N  =  number of stacks
The numbers 240 and 3680 represent the therms per ton of coal  and the
pounds of SOp emitted per ton of sulfur in burned fuel,  respectively.
The number 0.15 is the fraction of coal heat content contained in the
exhaust gases.

-------
                              Section 3.0
                          METEOROLOGICAL DATA
          The meteorological data for Chicago which are required for the
validation analysis include wind speed and direction, temperature,
clo.ud cover and types, cloud heights and ceiling, and the  height of the
top of the mixing layer.  Three types of data were utilized.   These
include TAM (Telemetered Air Monitoring) Station wind data, Midway
Airport hourly airway observations and hourly estimates of the top  of
the mixing layer.
          An average wind speed and direction based on continuous
measurements over a 75-minute period centered on each hour was available
for each TAM site.  The anemometer and wind vane height at these stations
was generally above building heights and varied from 40 feet to 180 feet;
the average height was 80 feet.  A vector average of the observations
for each hour was used to determine the mean wind speed and direction
for the validation study.
          The Midway Airport observations were used to get the outside
air temperature  for making temperature dependent emission  estimates and
for determining  stability classifications by means of the  Turner (1964)
classification scheme.
          Argonne had obtained  hourly estimates of the top of the mixing
layer using Midway surface temperatures  and rural  vertical  temperature
profiles.   The rural  vertical  temperature profile was  constructed using
Green Bay  and Peoria radiosonde data for 0600 and 1800 CST and the

-------
Argonne surface temperature.  An interpolation between the two soundings
was made to fit the Argonne surface temperature if appropriate.   Other-
wise, one sounding or the other was shifted to fit to the Argonne tem-
perature.  Linear interpolations were made for hourly intervals  between
the 12-hour observation periods. The mixing layer ceiling was  <  .
estimated by the intersection of the Midway potential  temperature with
rural temperature profile.

-------
                              Section 4.0
                            S02 OBSERVATIONS

          Mean hourly concentrations of S02 at each  of eight TAM stations
were obtained on magnetic tape for the data period.
          Concentrations measured by TAM station analyzers and averaged
over 24-hour periods were compared with 24-hour concentrations measured
by the West-Gaeke method (Booras and Zimmer 1968).   The West-Gaeke
method averaged about 20% lower than the conductivity method.  However.
as shown in the 2-hour versus 24-hour comparisons for St.  Louis
(Appendix B), this could be due to the use of 24-hour samples in the
West-Gaeke method.  The methods showed large deviations in both direc-
tions (either one high relative to the other).  Interference from other
pollutants was clearly evident at certain locations  (e.g., TAM
Station #3 in the Chicago Loop area) where the mean  concentration
measured by conductivity was twice that measured by  the West-Gaeke
method.  As a result of this analysis and those reported by other
investigators (e.g., Shikiya and MacPhee 1969), it  is seen that observed
concentrations for single steady-state periods may  be in error by a
factor of two.

-------
                               Section 5.0


                   CHICAGO PREPROCESSING PROGRAM LISTINGS


C CHICAGO DATA PREPROCESSOR
      DIMENSION XP(200),YP(200),HP{200),NS(30),SPCT(  30),QPTOT(  30),
     1NPATI 30),HGTI(4,100),COALP(100),01LP(100),SPCIC(100),SPC10(100 )
     2,XR(10),YR(10),ZR( 10),HA(5),ZP(200) ,WDAY(7,100),P(5),QH(200)
      DIMENSION STKPI(4,100),PMUF(12,100)tSFWP(9,100),SPHTG(100),QP(200)
      DIMENSION HGTU(6,6),NSU(6),NUNIT(6),SPCTU(6),STKPU(24,6),A(4,6)
     1,8(4,6),ULOAD(4,6),QHU(6),QPU(6),QPS(6)
      DIMENSION PROCL(IOO),OBCON(10),QPI(4),QHI(4),EFHGT(6),UDH(200)
      DATA NADPT/27/
      DATA NINPT/52/
      DATA NUTPT/6/
      DATA NRECP/8/
      DATA XR/5.3,10.5,13.3,14.4,11.1,12.7,6.7,7.9/
      DATA YR/25.6,10.7,17.9,11.6,11.7,5.3,18.8,9.3/
      DATA ZR/8*0./
      DATA GX/20./
      DATA GY/30./
      DATA DLTA/1609.3/
      DATA NH/3/
C HA IS HEIGHT OF AREA SOURCES IN  METERS
      DATA HA/30.5,45.7,61./
      DATA Zl/20./
      DATA P/0.1,0.I,0.15,0.2,0.3/
      DATA ICARD/5/
      DATA IPRTR/6/
      READ (ICARD,1003)  IREC1,NREC
 1003 FORMAT (215)
C GET POINT SOURCE EMISSION PARAMETERS
      CALL INC1(NADPT,XP,YP,HP,NS  ,SPCT,QPTOT,NPAT,IPRTR)
      Nl = NADPT
      CALL INC2(N1,NINPT,XP,YP,WDAYtHGTItCOALPtOILPtSPCICtSPCIOfSTKPI
     ItPMUF.SFWPfSPHTGtPROCLtIPRTR)
      Nl = Nl * NINPT
      CALL INC3(N1,NUTPT,XP,YP,HGTU,NSU,NUNIT,SPCTU,STKPU,A,B,IPRTR)
      II = IREC1 - 1
      IF (II) 2,2,1
    1 CONTINUE
      DO 3 1 = 1, II
      READ (16)
      READ (17)
    3 CONTINUE
    2 CONTINUE
      DO 400 11=1,NREC
      IR = II
      CALL INC4(CY,CM,CD,CH,DOW,THTA,U1,TEMP,CEIL,PRES,CSUM4,TUNC,CIGMX
     1,OBCON,IR)
      TBAR = (TEMP - 32.)  * 1.8 +  273.
      IF (TUNC - 5.) 6,5,4
    4 CONTINUE
      WRITE(IPRTR,1000)  TUNC
 1000 FORMATt' STABILITY PARAMETER  IS OUT OF  RANGE,  TUNC  =',F6.1)
    5 CONTINUE
      TG = -0.0065
      GO TO 7
    6 CONTINUE
      TG = 999.
    7 CONTINUE
      INDEX = TUNC
      PWIND = P(INDEX)
      CALL INC5(CYY,CMM,CDD,CHH,DOWW,NUTPT,NUNIT,ULOAD,IR)
; CHECK DATE/TIME DATA
      IF (CY - CYY) 10,20,10
   10 CONTINUE
      WRITE (IPRTR.lOOl) CY,CM,CD,CH,DOW,CYY,CMM,CDD,CHH,DOWW
 1001 FORMAT!• DATE/TIME DATA FROM  MET  AND  LOADtFILES DISAGREE     YEAR
     1 MONTH     DAY     HOUR WEEKDAY«/40X'MET  FILE•,5F8.0/39X'LOAD  FILE1
     2,5F8.0)

-------
   20 CONTINUE
      IF (CM - CMM) 10,30,10
   30 CONTINUE
      IF (CD - CDD) 10,40,10
   40 CONTINUE
      IF (CH - CHH) 10,50,10
   50 CONTINUE
      IF (DOW - DOWW) 10,60,10
   60 CONTINUE
      M = CM
C COMPUTE EMISSION RATE AND EFFECTIVE HEIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL POINTS
      DO 100 I2=1,NADPT
      CALL APSHE(TEMP,SPCT(I2),QPTOT(I2),NPAT(12),NS(I 2),CH,QP(12)
     1,UH(12))
      WS = Ul * (HPU2) / Z1)**PWIND
      IF (QH(I2))  70,70,80
   70 CONTINUE
      ZPU2) = HP (12)
      GO TO 90
   80 CONTINUE
      CALL PLUMZ(TG,QH(I2),TBAR,HP(I 2),WS,ZP(I 2),QP(12),CIGMX)
   90 CONTINUE
      UDHU2) = WS * (ZP(I2) - HPU2J)
  100 CONTINUE
C COMPUTE EMISSION RATE AND EFFECTIVE HEIGHT FOR INDUSTRIAL POINTS
      DO 200 I3=1,NINPT
C GET SHIFT AND WEEKDAY INDEXES
      IF (DOW - 7.) 110,110,105
  105 CONTINUE
      ID = 3
      GO TO 115
  110 CONTINUE
      IDW = DOW
      ID   = WDAY(IDW,I3)
  115 CONTINUE
      CALL SHFTC(HOUR,IS)
      CALL 1PSHE(SPHTG(I 3),PROCL(I 3),TEMP,COALP(I 3),01LP(13),SPCIC(I 3)
     1,SPCIO(I3),STKPI(1,I3),PMUF(1,I3),SFWP(1,I3),M,IS,ID,QPI,QHI)
      NI = NADPT +13
      QP(NI) = 0
      ZPINI) = 0
      QH(NI) = 0
      HPdMI ) = 0
      UDH(NI) = 0
      DO 140 1=1,4
      IF (HGTI(I,I3)) 140,140,120
  120 CONTINUE
      IF (QHKI))  140,140,130
  130 CONTINUE
      WS = Ul * (HGTI(I,I3) / Z1)**PWIND
      CALL PLUMZ(TG,QHI(I),TBAR,HGTI(I,13),WS,EFHGT(I),QPI(I),CIGMX)
      OP(NI ) = QP(NI ) + QPK I )
      QH(NI) = QH(NI) + STKPI(I,I3) * QHKI)
      HP(NI) = HP(NI) + STKPI(I,I3) * HGTI(I,I3)
      UDH(NI) = UDH(NI) + STKPI(I,I3) * WS * (EFHGT(I) - HGTI(I,I3))
      ZP(NI) = ZP(NI) + STKPKI.I3) * EFHGT(I)
  140 CONTINUE
  200 CONTINUE
C COMPUTE EMISSION RATE AND EFFECTIVE HEIGHT FOR UTILITY POINT SOURCES
      Nl = NI
      DO 300 I4=1,NUTPT
      CALL UPSHE(NSU(14),NUNIT(14),SPCTU(14),           STKPU(1,I4)
     1,A(1,I4),B(1,I4),ULOAD(1,I4),QHU,QPU,QPS)
      NI = Nl + 14
      QP(NI ) = 0
      ZP(NI) = 0
      QH(NI) = 0

-------
      UDH(NI) = 0
      II = NSUU4)
      DO 240 1=1,II
      IF (QHUUM 240,240,230
  230 CONTINUE
      WS = Ul * (HGTU(I,I4) / Z1)**PWIND
      CALL PLUMZ(TG,QHU(I),TBAR,HGTU(1,14),WS,EFHGT(I),QPS(I),CIGMX)
      QP(NI ) = QP(NI) +  QPS(I)
      QHINI) = QH(NI) +  QHU(I)
  240 CONTINUE
      OH(NI) = QH(NI) /  II
      IF (QP(NI)J 300,300,244
  244 CONTINUE
      DO 250 1=1,11
      EHW = QPS(I) / QP(NI)
      ZP(NI) = ZP(NI) -«•  EHW * EFHGT(I)
      HP(NI) = HP(NI) +  EHW * HGTUU.I4)
      UDH(NI) = UDH(NI)  +  EHW * (EFHGT(I) - HGTU(I,I4))
  250 CONTINUE
  300 CONTINUE
      NRPNT =NI
  WRITE OUTPUT RECORD
      CALL OUTC(CY,CM,CD,CH,DOW,NRECP,XR,YR,ZR,GX,GY,DLTA,NH,HA,NRPNT,XP
     1,YP,ZP,QP,U1,Z1,PWIND,THTA,INDEX,CIGMX,TEMP,OBCON,IR,XNDX,PRES)
      IF (CH - 23.) 320,310,320
  310 CONTINUE
      WRITE (IPRTR.1002) XNDX
 1002 FORMAT(' RECORD, WITH INDEX =I,F10.0,1, WRITTEN  ON UNIT  19')
  320 CONTINUE
  400 CONTINUE
      END FILE 19
      REWIND 12
      REWIND 13
      REWIND 14
      REWIND 16
      REWIND 17
      REWIND 19
      CALL EXIT
      END
      SUBROUTINE I NCI(NADPT,XP,YP,ZP,NS,SPCT,QPTOT,NPAT,IPRTR)
      DIMENSION XP( 1) ,YP(1),ZP(l),NS(1)tSPCT(l),QPTOT(1).NPATll)
      DO 100 1=1,NADPT
      READ(   12   ) J,XP(I),YP(I) ,ZP(I ),NS(I),SPCT(I) ,QPTOT(I),NPAT(I)
      IF (J - I) 10,20,10
   10 CONTINUE
      WRITE!IPRTR,1000) I,J
 1000 FORMAT!' ORDER ERROR  DETECTED READING RECORD NO.',16,',  RECORD  NO.
     ION FILE WAS',16,' {INC1)')
      CALL  EXIT
   20 CONTINUE
      IF(NS(I)) 425,425,450
  425 CONTINUE
      NSl1) = 1
  450 CONTINUE
C CONVERT STACK HEIGHTS FROM FT  TO M
      ZP( I  ) = 0.3048 * ZP(I)
  100 CONTINUE
      RETURN

-------
      SUBROUTINE INC2(Nl ,NINPT.XP,YP,A,  H,COALP,01LP,SPCTC*SPCTO,STAKP
     1,PMUF,SFWP,SPHTG,PROCL,IPRTR)
      DIMENSION XPd)iYP(l),     H(4,1),CCALP(1),01LP(1),SPCTC(1),A(7,1)
     1,SPCTO(1),STAKP(4,1),PMUF(12,1),SFWP(9,1),SPHTG(1),PROCL(1)
      I = Nl
      DO 100 J=1,NINPT
      1 = 1 + 1
      READ(  13  )K,XP(I),YP(I),(H(L,J) , STAKP(L,J) , L = 1,4),(A(L,J),L = 1,7)
     l.SPHTG(J),PRCCL(J), (PMUF(L.J),L=1,12),(SFWP(L,J),L=l,9),SPCTC(J)
     2.COALPU) ,SPCTO(J) ,OILP(J)
      IF {J - K) 10,20,10
   10 CONTINUE
      WRITE (IPRTR,1000) J,K
 1000 FORMATM ORDER ERROR DETECTED READING  RECORD NO.Sib,',  RECORD  NO.
     ION FILE WAS1,16,' {INC2)«)
      CALL  EXIT
   20 CONTINUE
      DO 30 L = l,4
C CONVERT STACK HEIGHTS FROM FT TO M
      H(L,J ) = 0.3048 * H(L,J)
C CONVERT STAKP TO FRACTION
      STAKP(L,J) = STAKP(L,J)  / 100.
   30 CONTINUE
C CONVERT COALP AND OILP TO FRACTION
      COALP(J) = COALP(J) * .01
      OILPlJ) = .01 * OILP(J)
C CONVERT PUMF TO FRACTION
      DO 200 L=l,12
      PMUF(L.J) = PMUF(L,J) *  .1
 200  CONTINUE
C CONVERT SFWP TO FRACTION
      DO 250 L=l,9
      SFWP(L,J)=SFWP(L,J)*.01
 250  CONTINUE
  100 CONTINUE
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE INC3(Nl,NUTPT,XP,YP,HGTU,NSU,NUNIT,SPCTU,STKPU,A,B
     1, IPRTR)
      DIMENSION XP(1),YP(1),        NSU(1),NUNIT(1),SPCTU(1),STKPU(24,1)
     1,A(4,1),B(4,1),HGTU(6,1)
      I = Nl
      DO 100 J=l,NUTPT
      I = I + 1
      READ(   14   )  K,XP(I),YP(I).NSU{JJ,(HGTUIL,J),L=1,6),NUNIT(J)
     1,SPCTU(J),(STKPU(L,J),L=1,24),(A(L,J),L=1,4),(B(L,J),L=1,4)
      IF (J - K) 10,20,10
   10 CONTINUE
      WRITE (IPRTR,1000) J,K
 1000 FORMATP ORDER ERROR DETECTED READING RECORD  NO.«,I6,', RECORD NO.
     ION FILE WAS1,16,' ( INC3) • )
      CALL EXIT
   20 CONTINUE
C CONVERT STACK HEIGHTS FROM FT TO M
      DO 30 L=l,6
      HGTU(L,J) = 0.3048 * HGTU(L,J)
   30 CONTINUE
C CONVERT STAKP TO A FRACTION
      DO 50 L=l,24
      STKPU(L,J)=STKPU(L,J)*.01
 50   CONTINUE
  100 CONTINUE
      RETURN
      END

-------
      SUBROUTINE INC4(CY,CM,CD,CH,DOW,  WD,U1,TEMP,C£IL,PRES,CSUM4,TUNC
     1,CIGMX,C8CON,IR)
      DIMENSION OBCON(1)
      READ(   16   ) I,U1,WD,TEMP,CEIL,PRES,CSUM4,TUNC,CIGMX,(OBCON(K),
     1K=1,8),CH,DOW,CD,CM,CY
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE INC5(CYY,CMM,CDD,CHH,DOWW,NUTPT,NUNIT,ULOAD,IR)
      DIMENSION NUNIT(l),ULOAD(4,1),ALOAD(20)
      READ(   17   )I,CYY,CMM,CDD,DOWW,CHH,(ALOAD(J),J=l,15)
      K = 0
      DO 20 I=lfNUTPT
      JJ = NUNIT(I)
      DO 10 J=1,JJ
      K = K + 1
      ULOADU, I ) = ALOAD(K)
   10 CONTINUE
   20 CONTINUE
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE PLUMZ(TG,QH,TBAR,STHGT,WS,EFFHT,QP,CIGMX)
C ROUTINE TO COMPUTE EFFECTIVE SOURCE HEIGHT USING BRIGGS PLUME RISE EQS
C INPUTS ARE
C              TG  -  VERTICAL TEMERATURE, GRADIENT, DEG K / METER
C              QH  -  HEAT EMISSION, CAL/SEC
C            TBAR  -  TEMPERATURE, DEG K
C           STHGT  -  STACK HEIGHT, METERS
C              WS  -  WIND SPEED AT STACK HEIGHT, METERS/SEC
C            DIST  -  TRAVEL DISTANCE, METERS
C PLUME RISE IS BASED ON TRAVEL DISTANCE OF FIVE TIMES DISTANCE AT WHICH
C TURBULENCE DOMINATES ENTRAINMENT, I.E. X/X* = 5
      F = 0.000037 * QH
C IF TG IS MISSING OR NON-POSITIVE, USE UNSTABLE OR NEUTRAL FORMULAS
      IF (TG - 999.) 1,4,4
    1  IF (TG + 0.008)4,4,2
C COMPUTE STABILITY PARAMETER S
    2 THG = TG +0.0098
      S = 9.8 * THG / TBAR
C IF STACK HEIGHT EXCEEDS MIXING CEILING, SET QP = 0
      IF (STHGT - CIGMX) 8,8,3
    3 QP = 0.
    8 CONTINUE
C COMPUTE STABLE PLUME RISE
      DH = 2.9 * (F / (WS * S))**0.33
      GO TO 10
C FIND RAPID RISE DISTANCE XI FOR NON-STABLE CONDITIONS
    4 IF (STHGT - 305.) 5,5,6
    5 XI = 2.16 * F**0.4 * STHGT**0.6
      GO TO 7
    6 XI = 67.3 * F**0.4
C COMPUTE NON-STABLE PLUME RISE
    7 CONTINUE
      XOX1 = 5.
      DH = 1.6 * F**0.33 * Xl**0.67 * (0.4 + 0.6*XOX1 + 2.2*XOX1*XOX1)
     I/ (WS * (1. + 0.8*XOX1)**2)
C ADD PLUME RISE TO STACK HEIGHT
   10 EFFHT = STHGT + DH
      RETURN

-------
      SUBROUTINE APSHE(TEMP,SULPC,QPTOT,NPAT,NS,HR,QAPHR,QHEAT)
C INPUTS
C         TEMP      TEMPERATURE {DEG F)
C         SULPC     SULFUR CONTENT OF FUEL (PERCENT)
C         QPTOT     ANNUAL EMISSION OF S02    00 LB/YR)
C         NPAT      EMISSION PATTERN - 1=UNIFORM,2=TEMP DEPENDENT,3=PUMP
C         NS        NUMBER OF STACKS
C         HR        HOUR OF DAY
C OUTPUTS
C         QAPHR     S02  EMISSION RATE (G/SEC)
C         QHEAT     HEAT EMISSION RATE (CAL/SEC)
C CHEAT CONVERTS  (     THERMS/HR) TO (CAL/SEC)
      DATA CHEAT/7.OOOE3/
C THTON IS COAL HEAT CONTENT (      THERMS/TON)
      DATA THTON/240./
C S02SU IS S02 EMISSION FACTOR FOR SULFUR IN COAL  (LB S02/TON SULFUR)
      DATA S02SU/3680./
C CRATE CONVERTS LB/HR TO G/SEC
      DATA CRATE/0.1260/
C DEGDA IS ANNUAL DEGREE DAYS
      DATA DEGDA/6155./
C DETERMINE METHOD OF CALCULATION FOR EMISSION PATTERN
      GO TO (100,200,300),NPAT
  100 CONTINUE
C UNIFORM EMISSION
      QAPHR=QPTOT/B760.
      GO TO 400
  200 CONTINUE
C TEMP DEPENDENT EMISSION
      IFITEMP-65) 250,225,225
  225 CONTINUE
      TE = 0.
      GO TO 275
  250 CONTINUE
      TE=1.
  275 CONTINUE
      QAPHR=QPTOT*(.2/18760.) + .8*TE* ( 65.-TEMP  )/(24. * DEGDA))
      GO TO 400
C PUMP STATION PATTERN
  300 CONTINUE
      TPUMP=.429
      IF(6.9-HR) 350,375,375
  350 CONTINUE
      IF(HR-23.1) 370,375,375
  370 CONTINUE
C HOUR IS LT 23.1 AND GT 6.9
      TPUMP=1.29
  375 CONTINUE
      QAPHR= QPTOT*TPUMP/8760.
  400 CONTINUE
C CALCULATE HEAT EMISSION FOR SINGLE STACK SIMULATION OF MULTIPLE STACKS
C ASSUMPTIONS-
C            - STACK HEIGHTS ARE EQUAL
C            - S02 AND HEAT DISTRIBUTION AMONG STACKS IS UNIFORM
C            - COAL IS USE AS A FUEL
      QHEAT = (QAPHR * THTON) / (0.01 * SULPC *  S02SU *  NS)
      QHEAT = QHEAT * CHEAT

C QA IS IN UNITS OF LBS/HR CONVERT TO GRAMS/SEC
      QAPHR = CRATE * QAPHR
      RETURN

-------
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
      SUBROUTINE IPSHE(SPHTG,PROCL,TEMP,COALP,01LP,SULPCtSULPO,STAKP,
     CPMUF,SFWP,M,IS,ID, QS02S,QTSTK)
  IPSHE CALCULATES THE HOURLY EMISSION FROM INDUSTRIAL POINT SOURCES
  INPUTS
                    MAX. SPACE HEATING REQD. (THERMS/HR)
                    MAX. PROCESS LOAD (THERMS/HR)
                    TEMPERATURE (DEG F)
                    COAL LOAD (FRACTION)
                    OIL LOAD (FRACTION)
                    SULFUR CONTENT OF COAL  (PERCENT)
                                   OF OIL (PERCENT)
                                   ALLOCATION (FRACTION)
                                   ALLOCATION (FRACTION)
                                   ALLOCATION (FRACTION)
                                  INDEX
  OUTPUTS
SPHTG
PROCL
TEMP
COALP
OILP
SULPC
SULPO
STAKP
PMUF
SFWP
M
IS
ID
SULFUR CONTENT
STACK EMISSION
MONTH EMISSION
      EMISSION
      OF YEAR
SHIFT
MONTH
SHIFT
                          INDEX
                    DAY OF WEEK
             1=1-8, 2=9-16, 3=17-24)
            INDEX  (1=WEEKDAY,2=SAT,3=SUN
                                         OR HOLIDAY)
                                   SULFUR IN COAL  (LB S02/TON SULFUR)

                                   SULFUR IN OIL  (LB S02/1000 GAL SULFR)

                                   (FRACTION)
          QS02S     S02  EMISSION RATE (G/SEC)
          QTSTK     HEAT EMISSION RATE (CAL/SEC)
      REAL LS,LP,L,LC,LO
      DIMENSION PMUF(12),SFWP(3,3),STAKP(4),QS02S(4),QTSTK(A)
C HEATC IS COAL HEAT CONTENT (THERMS/TON)
      DATA HEATC/240./
C HEATO IS OIL HEAT CONTENT (THERMS/1000 GAL)
      DATA HEATO/1440./
C S02CO IS S02 EMISSION FACTOR FOR
      DATA S02CO/3680./
C S020I IS S02 EMISSION FACTOR FOR
      DATA S020I/15790./
C HEATE IS HEAT LOSS TO FLUE GASES
      DATA HEATE/0.15/
C CHEAT CONVERTS THERMS/HR TO CAL/SEC
      DATA CHEAT/7.OOOE3/
C CRATE CONVERTS LB/HR TO G/SEC
      DATA CRATE/0.1260/
      IF (TEMP - 55.) 10,10,20
   10 CONTINUE
      LS = 0.
      GO TO 30
   20 CONTINUE
      LS = SPHTG*(55.-TEMP)/65.
   30 CONTINUE
      LP = PROCL*PMUF(M)*SFWP(IS,ID)
C LS AND LP ARE THE ADJUSTED HEATING AND PROCESS LOADS

      L = LP+LS
C L IS TOTAL LOAD
      LC = COALP*L
      LO = OILP*L
C LC AND LO ARE COAL AND OIL LOADS

      C = LC / HEATC
C C IS THE HOURLY RATE OF COAL USE
      0 = LO / HEATO
C 0 IS THE HOURLY RATE OF OIL USE
      QC = 0.01 * SULPC * C * S02CO
      QS = 0.01 * SULPO * 0 * S020I
C QC AND QS ARE S02 EMISSION RATES FOR COAL AND OIL
      QS02 = (QC + QS) * CRATE
C ALLOCATE S02 EMISSION AND THERMAL OUTPUT TO STACKS
      DO 300 1=1,4
      QS02S(I)= STAKPlI)*QS02
      QTSTK(I) = STAKP(I) * HEATE * L * CHEAT
  300
      CONTINUE
      RETURN

-------
                 UPSHE(NSTAK,NUNIT,SULPCt
C
c
C
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
c
    SUBROUTINE
   CS02SK)
    CALCULATE UTILITY POINT  SOURCE HOURLY EMISSIONS
INPUTS
        NSTAK
        NUNIT
        SULPC
        STAKP
        A
                                               STAKP,A,B,XL,THOSK,S02UN,
OUTPUTS
        B
        XL
                    NO. OF STACKS
                    NO. OF GENERATOR UNITS
                    SULFUR CONTENT OF COAL  (PERCENT)
                    STACK EMISSION ALLOCATION BY GEN.
                    REGRESSION COEF  (THERMAL LOAD ON
                    REGRESSION COEF  ,INTERCEPT
                    POWER OUTPUT  (MEGAWATTS)
 UNIT (FRACTION)
POWER OUTPUT),SLOPE
          THOSK     HEAT EMISSION
          S02UN     S02  EMISSION
          S02SK     S02  EMISSION
      DIMENSION THIUN(4)
     CS02SM6) ,A(4),B(4),XL(4)
C HEATE IS HEAT LOSS TO FLUE GASES
      DATA HEATE/0.15/
C HEATC IS COAL HEAT CONTENT (THERMS/TON)
      DATA HEATC/240./
C S02CO IS S02 EMISSION FACTOR FOR SULFUR
      DATA S02CO/3680./
C CHEAT CONVERTS THERMS/HR TO CAL/SEC
      DATA CHEAT/7000./
C CRATE CONVERTS LB/HR TO G/SEC
      DATA CRATE/0.1260/

      DO 30 K=l,NUNIT
C CALCULATE THERMAL LOADS FOR EACH UNIT
      THI UN(K) = A(K)*XL(K)+B(K)
      IF (THIUN(K)) 20,25,25
   20 CONTINUE
      THIUN(K) = 0.
   25 CONTINUE
      THOUN(K) = HEATE * THIUN(K)
C CALCULATE S02 EMISSION FROM K TH UNIT
      C = THIUN(K) / HEATC
      S02UN(K) = 0.01 * SULPC * C * S02CO
 30   CONTINUE
      DO 100  I=1,NSTAK
      S02SK(I)=0.
      THOSK(I)=0.
 100  CONTINUE
C START STACK ALOCATION
      DO 200 J = l,NSTAK
      DO 200 K=l,NUNIT
      S02SK( J) = STAKP( J , K )*S02UN ( K) + S02SMJ)
 200  CONTINUE
C S02SK IS IN UNITS OF
      DO 400 J=l,NSTAK
      S02SKU) a CRATE
      DO 300 K=l,NUNIT
      THOSK(J)= STAKP(J,K)*THOUN(K)+THOSK(J)
 300  CONTINUE
               - THOSK(J) * CHEAT
                                RATE
                                RATE BY GEN. UNIT
                                RATE BY STACK
                               , STAKP(6,4),THOUN(4),THOSK(6)

                                 (FRACTION)
                                                                S02UN(4)
                                          IN COAL  (LB S02/TON  SULFUR)
                        LOOP
                       LBS/HR - CONVERT TO GRAMS / SEC

                       * S02SKU)
  400
    THOSM J)
    CONTINUE
    RETURN

-------
      SUBROUTINE SHFTC(HOUR,IS)
  DETERMINE SHIFT
      IF (HOUR) 13,13,9
    9 CONTINUE
      IF (HOUR - 17.) 10,13,13
   10 CONTINUE
      IF (HOUR - 9.) 11,12,12
  MIDNIGHT SHIFT (01 - 08)
   11 CONTINUE
      IS = 1
      GO TO 14
  DAY SHIFT (09 - 16)
   12 CONTINUE
      IS = 2
      GO TO 14
  SWING SHIFT  (17 -
   13 CONTINUE
      IS = 3
   14 CONTINUE
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE OUTC(CY,CM,CD,CH,DOW,NRECP,XR,YR,ZR,GX,GY,DLTA,NH,HA
     1,NRPNT,XP,YP,ZP,QP,WS,WH,P,WD,INDEX,CIGMX,TEMP,OBS,IR,XNDX, STAPR)
      DIMENSION XR(1),YR(1),ZR(1),HA(1)      ,XP(1),YP(1),ZP(1),QP(1)
     1,OBS(1)
C COMPUTE RECORD INDEX NUMBER
      XNDX = CH -t- 100.  * CD + 1.E4 * CM
C SET OTHER PARAMETER VALUES
      IDOW = DOW
      SIGA = 0.
      RIB = 0.
      PCPN = 0.
      WGLD = 0.
      WRITE (    19    ) XNDX,CY,CM,CD,IDOW,CH,NRECP,(XR(I),I=1,NRECP)
     1,(YR(I ),I = 1,NRECP),(ZR(I),I = 1,NRECP),(OBS(I),I=1,NRECP),GX,GY,DLTA
     2,NH,(HA(I),I=1,NH),NRPNT,(XP(I), I=1.NRPNT), (YPU ),I=1,NRPNT)
     3, (ZP( I ), I = 1,NRPNT),(QP(I), I = 1,NRPNT),WS,WH,P,WD,INDEX,TEMP,CIGMX
     4,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
      RETURN
      END

-------
   Appendix D

-------
                             Exhibit D-l

               LISTING OF FORTRAN CODE COMPUTER PROGRAM
           AND SUBROUTINES USED FOR VALIDATION CALCULATIONS*
*Additional  subroutines are listed in Exhibit D-3.

-------
           c
           c
           c
           c
           c
           c
           c
           c
DIFFUS2
MAIN PROGRAM FOR VALIDATION CALCULATIONS
    DIMENSION YEARR(2) ,AMONN(2) ,DAYY12) ,HOURR(2)
    DIMENSION CNCT150), CAREA(50J,CPCIN(50),XRR(50),YRR(50)
   1,ZRR(50),OBS02(50)
    DIMENSION DISTX(1000), XDCAY(2000),SSIGZ(1000),EXPOZ(2000)
   1,HA(5) ,UHA(5) ,QXY(5) ,Q(
-------
                 GO TO 160
              22 CONTINUE
                 IF(NPS-NNPS)  23,23,21
              23 CONTINUE
                 NGV = GX * GY * NH
                 IF (NGV - NA) 24,24,21
              24 CONTINUE
                 IF(NH-NNH) 28,28,27
              27 CONTINUE
                 WRITE (IPRTR,1005) NNH,NH
            1005 FORMAT('NH EXCEEDS DIMENSION LIMIT OF',I 4,',NH=',14
                1,'NH SET TO LIMIT')
                 NH=NNH
              28 CONTINUE
                 AREA = DLTA * DLTA
                 DO 29 IG=1,NGV
                 Q(IG) = Q(IG) / AREA
              29 CONTINUE
                 NPSS = NPS
                 XYMIN = 0.5 * DLTA
                 XSMAX = (GX + 0.5) * DLTA
                 YSMAX = (GY + 0.5) * DLTA
           C  CHECK  VALIDITY OF WIND DATA,  SKIP TO NEXT DATA  SET IF  WIND
           C  SPEED  LIES OUTSIDE 0 TO 30 OR WIND DIRECTION  LIES OUTSIDE
           C  -PI/2  TO 2.5*PI
                 IF (WSPD - 1.) 150,150,30
              30 CONTINUE
                 IF (WSPD - 30.) 31,150,150
              31 CONTINUE
                 IF (THTA - 7.9) 40, 40,150
              40 CONTINUE
                 IF (THTA + 1.6) 150,150,41
              41 CONTINUE
           C  SET COS AND SIN FACTORS FOR WIND/SOURCE COORDINATE CONVERSIONS
                 ISTAR = 0
                 CALL SCORD
                 CALL WCORD
                 CALL SIGZZ
                 IF (IERR) 50,45,50
              45 CONTINUE
                 ISTAR = 1
                 CALL DISTB
                 IF (IERR) 60,60,50
              50 CONTINUE
                 WRITE (IPRTRtlOOl) YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR
            1001 FORMAT (• INPUT ERROR, GO TO NEXT  DATA  SET«,4F8.0)
                 GO TO 160
              60 CONTINUE
           C  GET CONCENTRATION FOR EACH RECEPTOR LOCATION
                 ZR = -1
           C      NRECP = 10
                 DO 140 1 = 1,NRECP
                 XR=XRR(I) * DLTA
           C      XR = XRR(40 + I) * DLTA
                 YR=YRR(I) * DLTA
           C      YR = YRR(40+I) * DLTA
                 ZRL = ZR
                 ZR = ZRR(I)
                 IF (ZR - ZRL) 70,80,70
              70 CONTINUE
                 CALL EXPZB
              80 CONTINUE
                 CALL CONTR
                 CALL POINT
                    IF (IERR)  90,100,90
              90 CONTINUE
                 WRITE (IPRTR,1001) YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR
                 GO TO 160
C



-------
             100 CONTINUE
                 CAREA(I) = CONG
                 CPOIN(I) = CONPS
                 CNCT(I)= CONC+CONPS
           C CONVERT CONCENTRATIONS FROM GRAM/SEC TO MICROGRAM/SEC
                 CNCT(I)  = 1.E6 * CNCT(I)
             140 CONTINUE
                 CALL OUTPT
                 GO TO  160
             150 CONTINUE
                 WRITE( IPRTR,1003) WSPD,THTA
            1003 FORMAT  (' WIND INPUT IS UNACCEPTABLE,WSPD =',F6.1
                1,•,  THTA =',F7.3)
             160 CONTINUE
                 CALL       INCRT
                 IF(l.-STOP)  20tl70,20
             170 CONTINUE
                 REWIND  18
                 CALL EXIT
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE OUTPT
                 DIMENSION CNCT(50),CAREA(50),CPCIN(50),XRR(50),YRR(50)
                1,ZRR(50),OBS02(50)
                 DIMENSION DISTX(1000),XDCAY(2000),SSIGZ(1000),EXPOZ(2000)
                ltHA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),Q(4000)
                 DIMENSION XP (100),YP  (100),ZP (100),QP(100)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,ISIGD,NXL1M,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,I NDEX,THTA,CIGMX ,GX,GY , DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYM1N,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/OUTPUT/YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR  ,NRECP,CNCT,CAREA,CPGIN
                1,XRR,YRR,ZRR,OBS02,IDOW,NR1,TEMP,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
                 COMMON/AREAS/NXI,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,NH,HA
                 i,UHA,QXY,Q,CONC,NHl
                 COMMON/WNDSP/WSPD,WHGT,PWIND
                 COMMON/POINTS/NPS   ,XP  ,YP  ,ZP ,OP,CONPS,NPSS
                 DATA IWOF/18/
           CCOMPUTE RECORD INDEX  NUMBER
                 Y     =  HOUR  +  100  *  DAY  +  1.E4 *  AMON
           C  WRITE  DATA  INTO  FILE
                 WRITEUWOF     )Y,YEAR.AMON  , DAY , I DOW , HOUR , NRECP
                1,(OBS02(N)fN=ltNRECP),(CNCT(N),N=1,NRECP)
                2,WSPD,WHGT,PWIND,THTA,INDEX,TEMP,CIGMX,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
           C     1,  (OBS02(N),N=41,50),(CNCT(N),N=1,NRECP)
                 KRITE( IPRTR,107) Y,IWOF
             107 FORMATS  OUTPUT  RECORD  INDEX  =',F10.0,', WRITTEN ON UNIT1,16)
                 RETURN
                 END
C

u

-------
                 SUBROUTINE DAFIL
           C  ROUTINE TO TRANSFER MODEL INPUTS FROM DISK AND TAPE TO CORE,
           C  ST.LOUIS DATA
                 DIMENSION CNCT150),CAREA(50),CPOIN(50),XRR(50),YRR(50)
                1,ZRR(50),OBS02(50)
                 DIMENSION DISTX(1000),XDCAY(2000), SSIGZ(1000),EXPOZ(2000)
                1,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),Q(4000)
                 DIMENSION XP (100),YP (100),ZP (100),QP(100)
                 DIMENSION DUf'U 100)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR , ISIGD ,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI.XONE
                IfXMAXtCONX,DECAY,I NDEX,THTA,CIGMX ,GX ,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YH,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/OUTPUT/YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR ,NRECP,CNCT,CAREA,CPCIN
                1,XRR,YRR,ZRR,OBS02,IDOW,NR1,TEMP,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,NH,HA
                 1,UHA,QXY,Q,CONC,NH1
                 COMMON/WNDSP/WSPD,WHGT,PWIND
                 COMMON/POINTS/NPS   ,XP  ,YP  ,ZP ,QP,CONPS,NPSS
                 DATA NRECS/0/
           CCOMPUTE RECORD INDEX NUMBER
                 YMDH = HOUR  +  100  *  DAY
                 IF (AMON   -  12) 1,3,2
               1  CONTINUE
                 YMDH = YMDH  +  AMON   * 10000
               3  CONTINUE
           C  COMPUTE RECORD NUMBER,  EXIT IF  REQUESTED  DATA IS  NOT  IN FILE
                 IF (YEAR  - 64)  2,4,18
               2  CONTINUE
                 YMDH = HOUR  +  100  *  DAY +  10000  * AMON  + 1000000.* YEAR
                 WRITE (IPRTR,100)  YMDH
             100  FORMAT (' YMDH  =',F9.0,«,  DATA PERIOD REQUESTED IS NOT'
                1,' IN FILE1)
c                CALL EXIT
t '          C  CHECK  REQUEST AGAINST  DECEMBER  1964  DATES 01/1500 TO  31/2400
               4  CONTINUE
                 NREC = -14
                 IF (AMON   -  12) 2,6,2
v              6  CONTINUE
                 IF (DAY - 1) 2,8,10
               8  CONTINUE
                 IF (HOUR  - 15)  2,10,10
              10  CONTINUE
                 IF (DAY - 31)  12,12,2
              12  CONTINUE
                 IF (HOUR) 2,2,14
              14  CONTINUE
                 IF (HOUR  - 24)  16,16,2
              16  CONTINUE
                 NREC = NREC  +  24 *  (DAY -  1) + HOUR
                 GO TO 30
              18  CONTINUE
                 IF (YEAR  - 65)  2,20,2
              20  CONTINUE
                 IF (AMON   -  1)  2,22,24
           C  CHECK  REQUEST AGAINST  JANUARY  1965 DATES  01/0100  TO 31/2400
              22  CONTINUE
                 NREC = 730
                 IF (DAY)  2,2,23
              23  CONTINUE
                 GO TO 10
f             24  CONTINUE
                 IF (AMON   -  2)  2,26,2
           C  CHECK  REQUEST AGAINST  FEBRUARY  1965  DATES 01/0100 TO  28/1400
              26  CONTINUE
r                NREC = 1474
V-                IF (DAY)  2,2,27
              27  CONTINUE
                 IF (DAY - 28)  12,28,2

c



c


-------
              28 CONTINUE
                 IF (HOUR - 14)  12,12,2
              30 CONTINUE
             READ DATA FROM DISK
                 IF (NRECS) 2,31,32
              31 CONTINUE
                 IF (NREC - 1556)  32,32,131
             131 CONTINUE
             WORKING ON SECOND TAPE REEL,SPACE UNIT 15 DOWN 1556 RECORDS
                 NRECS = 1556
                 DO 132 1=1,1556
                 READ (15)
             132 CONTINUE
              32 CONTINUE
                 IF (NREC - NRECS  - 1)  36,33,38
              33 CONTINUE
                 READ (    15    )  XNDX,YRF1,AMFI,DAFI,I DOW,HRFI,NR1,NRECP
             CHECK DISK INDEX NUMBER AGAINST COMPUTED  RECORD INDEX NUMBER
                 IF (XNDX - YMDH)  35,40,35
              35 CONTINUE
                 WRITE( IPRTR,101 )  XNDX,YMDH
             101 FORMAT ('  XNDX  =',F7.0,', YMDH =',F7.0,', DISK AND'
                I,1 COMPUTED RECORD INDEX NUMBERS DO NOT AGREE')
                 CALL EXIT
              36 CONTINUE
                 NRECC = NRECS - NREC + 1
                 DO 37 1=1,NRECC
                 BACKSPACE  15
                 BACKSPACE  16
              37 CONTINUE
                 GO TO 33
              38 CONTINUE
                 NRECC = NREC -  NRECS - 1
                 DO 39 1=1,NRECC
                 READ (    15    )
                 READ (    16    )
              39 CONTINUE
                 GO TO 33
              40 CONTINUE
                 BACKSPACE  15
                 READ (    15    )  XNDX,YRFI,AMFI,DAFI,IDCW,HRFI,NR1,NRECP,(XRR(I )
                It I = lt NR1) t (YRR( I ) , I = i,NRl) , ( ZRR ( I ) ,I = 1,NR1) , (CJBS02( I )
                2,I=1,NR1),(DUMKI),1=1,NRECP), GX ,GY,DLTA,NH,(HA(I),I=1,NH)
                3,NPS,(XP(I),I=1,NPS),(YP(I),I=1,NPS),(ZP(I),I=1,NPS)
                4,(QP(I),I=1,NPS),WSPDtWHGT.PWINDtTHTA,INDEX,TEMP,CIGMX
                5,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
             READ DATA FROM TAPE
                 NO = GX *  GY *  NH
                 READ (    16    )  XNDH,GX,GY,NH,(Q   (I),1=1,NO)
             CHECK TAPE INDEX NUMBER AGAINST COMPUTED  RECORD INDEX NUMBER
                 IF (XNDH - YMDH)  55,60,55
              55 CONTINUE
                 WRITE( IPRTR,102)  XNDH,YMDH
             102 FORMAT ('  XNDH  =',F7.0,', YMDH =',F7.0,', TAPE AND'
                1,' COMPUTED RECORD INDEX NUMBERS DO NOT AGREE1)
                 CALL EXIT
              60 CONTINUE
                 NRECS = NREC
                 RETURN
                 END
o

C

o

-------
                                       ASSUMING DATA FILE STARTS CC
                                                YRR(50)
      SUBROUTINE CHIDA
C ROUTINE TO GET CHICAGO  DATA  MODEL  iNPUTSt
C ON JAN 1 67 AND ENDS  2300  JAN  31  67.
      DIMENSION CNCT(50 ) ,CAREA(50),CPOIN(50),XRR(50)
     1,ZRR(50)tOBSU2(50)
      DIMENSION DISTXt1000),XDCAY(2000),SSIGZ<1000),EXPOZ(2000)
     1,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5), QSIJ(4000)
      DIMENSION XP  (100),YP  (100),ZP  ( 100),QP(100)
      COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
     1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGKX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
     2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
      COMMON/OUTPUT/YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR  ,NRECP,CNCT,CAREA,CPGIN
     1,XRR,YRR,ZRR,OBS02,I DOW,NR1,TEMP,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
      COMMON/AREAS/NXI,NX,KUT6X,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,NH,HA
      1,UHA,QXY,Q,CONC,NH1
      COMMON/WNDSP/WSPD,WHGT,PWIND
      COMMON/POINTS/NPS   ,XP ,YP  ,ZP  ,QP,CONPS,NPSS
      DIMENSION         RES(600),COM(600),XIND(600)
      DIMENSION RESK 150),COM1(250)
      EQUIVALENCE (RES(468),RES1(1)),
                       1*0. ,5.70E5,6.
                        48E6,4.80E5,9.
                        90E6,8.70E5,1
                        17E6,1.50E6,1
                        60E5,4.00E5,3
                        01E6,5.00E4,8
                        40E5,3.30E5,1
                              ,50E5,3
                                   tl
                                   ,1
                               10E5, 1
DATA   RES  /
,1.00E4,12*0,
, 1
,1
,7,
 10*0
, 1
,2
,3
,5
,5
,7
,6
   10E5,12*0. ,1,
   20E5.3.28E6,1,
   40E5,1.50E6f6,
        ,9.00E5,1,
   ,OOE5f11*0,
   70E5,
             10*0,
        8.00E4,
   90E5,6.70E5,2.40E5,12*0
   40E5,6.20E5,4.00E5,13*0
   70E5.2.30E5,11*0.  ,
   60E5,14*0. ,9.00E4,2*0.   ,4
   40E5, 1.10E5,7.00E4,1.40E5.4
,2*5.E4,12*0. , 1.00E5,1.21E6,2
   OOE4,11*0. , 1.80E5, 1.85E6,!
   70E5,3.00E4,O.OOEO,1.00E4,9*0,
          40E5,7.60E5,3.00E4,1.
          04E6,5.40E5,4.20E5,7,
          29E6, 1.20E5,1.06E6,6.
          80E5, 1. 10E5,3.50E5,7.
(COM(392),COM1(1))
80E5,18*0. ,1.22E6,9
OOE5,1.60E5,4.00E4,0
       20E5,2*8.E4,3
       40E5,1.90E5,7
       40E5,5
       12E6,3
       40E5,7
       OOE4
                                 ,3,
                                 ,1
,08E6,9
,05E6,4
,80E5
, 10E5
, 10E5,6
,70E5,3
,30E5,1
,60E5
,OOE4
,OOE4
,OOE4
                                    ,5,
                                    ,8,
                                      ,60E5,4.
                                           1
                                    80Eb,
                                    OOE4,1
                                    10E5,1
,9
,2
, 1
, 1
, 1
,2
         07E6,4.
         22E6,1.
         14E6, 1.
         80E5,2.
      DATA RES1/
       1.QOE5.9.00E4, 13*0
      ,5.00E4,3.00E4,14*0
       14*0. ,4.00E4,2
                                           14*0.  ,5,
                                      19E6,1.80E5,1,
                                      46E6,7.50E5,7,
                                           1.01E6,2,
  50E5,1
  50E5.5
  40E5,3
  20E5,1
  90E5,5
  40E5,1
  40E5,4
  10E5,12*0.
  60E5,2.64E6,
  10E5.1
      ,2
      ,1
  ,60E5,
  ,OOEO,
  ,OOE4,
  ,OOE4,
  ,OOE5,
  ,70E5,
  ,10E5,
  , 15E6,
  ,40E5,
  ,92E6,
  ,90E5,
                                           90E5
                                           68E6
                                           OOE5
OOE4,10*0
OOE4,2.00E4,11*0
20E5,12*0. ,5.00E4,3.
OOE4,12*0.,3.E4,5.E4,
                                                     OOE5
                                                     30E5,
                                                     02E6,
                                                     14E6,
                                                     90E5,
                                                     60E5,
                                                     2*0.,
      4.E5,4*0.
      8.E4
      12*0.
      12*0.
      l.E4,5.E*
        5E5
        6E5
        3E5
        5E5
        17E6
        16E6
        9E5
        E4,2*0.
        E4,l.Ef
        4E5
        88E6
        3E5
        9E5
        E4
                                                        6.E4/
DATA   COM
,2.46E6,1.51E6,5
,9
,2
, 1
,1
,4
,1
, 1
         , 30E5.6
         ,88E6, 1
         IOOE4,
         ,OOE5,
         ,70E5,3
         .13E6,6
         , 10E6,6
         ,20E6,2
 11*0,
          10E5,4
          C2E6,9
        9*0.  ,6
        2*0.  ,6
          30E5,2
          30E5, 1
          20E5,9
          22E6,1
          40E6,2
   21E6,11*0,
   13E6,9,
      ,1
      , 1
      ,6. 10E5,13*0. ,1
      ,12*0.  ,1.72E6,6
       12*0   -  --- •
i
,1
          20E5,11*0
                 19E6,1
                 60E5,1
                 80E6.6
                 40E5,2
               .  70E5,1
,4.40E5,3.40E5,3
,7*0.  ,5.00E4,-1
DATA COM1/
 9.00E4,8.00E4,1.40E5,9,
, 1.70E5,6.00E5,7.70E5,2,
, 1.60E5,8.50E5,6.20E5,5,
      1.79E6f2
,20E5,10*0.  ,9
 70E5,2.00E5,1
                     , 1.80E5, 1
                     ,3.30E5,1
                 OOE4,56*0./
               /48*0.,9.70E5,1
                 ,50E5,3*0.   ,5
                 10E5,3.20E5,!
                 , 10E5,8.10E5,2
                 ,70E5,3.90E6,1
                 1OOE4,9*0.   ,2
                 70E5,1.10E5,5
                 ,02E6,7.20E5,3
                 ,60E5,7.20E5
                 ,16E6,7.40E5,5
                 ,86E6,1.81E6,9
                 84E6,3.15E6,2
                      " 03E6,1
                        ,47E6,5
                        92E6,1
                        30E5,1
                        ,39E6,2
                        ,20E5,3
                 80E5,1.30E5,1
                 60E6,1
                                OOE4,2*0,
                                            1.80E2f2.00E5,
                                30E5,1.00E4,2*3.E4,16*0,
                                                          E5,2.Ef
                                                          2E5
                            ,41E6,1
                            ,OOE4,7
                            .10E5, 1
                            , 10E5.1
                            ,66E6,7
                            ,06E6
                            ,OOE4
                            160E5,2,
                          ,9.50E5,4,
                            ,80E5
                            ,80E5
                            ,94E6,2
                             02G6,1
                             50E5,5
                                 ,6
    ,1
    ,2
    ,5,
    ,1
       ,50E5,
       ,OOE4
       ,OOE5
       ,90E5
       ,40E5,1
       ,80E6,6
                        ,86E6,6,

                        50E5.4.
                        60E5,2,
84E6
27E5,9
50E6,4
OOE4,8*0.  ,2
30E5,2.20E5,2
90E5,8.10E5,5
        OOE4,9*0
        30E5.2
        OOE5,4
        OOE5,8
        40E6,9
        24E6,1
        45E6,5
        30E5,9
        60E5.6
        30E5,2
        10E5,1
5*0.
8.00E4
  OOE5
  30E5
  13E6.7
  40E5,4
           »
           ,2
,1.30E5,
,11*0
,1
,7
,70E5,
,OOE4,
,70E5,
,70E5,
,33E6,
      ,2
  90E5,11*0
  20E5,5.20E5,
  70E5,4.50E5,
  70E5,1
  08E6, 1
  60E5,9
  40E5,3
  60E5.4
  50E5,5
  69E6,6
  40E5,2
                                                    10E5,5
                                                    10E5,2
  ,27E6,
  ,26E6,
  ,70E5,
  ,60E5,
  ,20E5,
  ,60E5,
  ,OOE5,
  ,48E6,
  ,OOE4,
  ,80E5,
11*0.
2.29E6
11*0.
  4E5
  15E6
  5E5
  15E6
  12E6
10*0.
2.4E5
  44E6
  27E6
  6E5
  8E5
  9E5
  1E5
  6E5
  93E6
  1E5
                                      OOE4,7*0.   ,1,
                                      10E5,2.00E5,5.
                        60E5,4.10E5,3.70E5,5,
                                           72E6,1.39E6,
                                           50E5,9*0.   ,
                                           80E5,6.00E4,
                           3.1E5/

                           7.5E5
                           1.E4

-------
              10

              20
                fjV*wWh.vsr«'*v/^SL~ i j * *^ • ^s w  7


                9,' 3 . OOE4 I 0 I OOE01 2 I 24E6 ,'
                 DATA NRFf.S/f)/
      J -«• w V
      U W I r\ i^iv^^^^f
      IF (NRECS)
      CONTINUE
      REWIND  19
      CONTINUE
      YMDH =  HOUR  +  l.u
C NREC SET BY COMPUTING
C 0000 JAN 1  1967  PLUS  1
      NREC =  (DAY  -  1.) *
C ORIENT DATA FILE READER
C NRECS = RECORD NUMBER OF  	
      NRECC = NREC -  NRECS  -  1
      IF (NRECC) 80,300,100
   80 CONTINUE
      DO 90 1 = 1,NRECC
      BACKSPACE 19
   90 CONTINUE
      GO TO 300
  100 CONTINUE
      DO 110  1=1,NRECC
      READ (   19    )
  110 CONTINUE
  300 CONTINUE
C READ DATA FROM DISK
      READ  (    19     i
     1,GX,GY,DLTA,NH,(HA(
                                  E2  *  DAY  +  1.E4 * AMON
                                 IG NUMBER  OF  HOURS BY WHICH REQUESTED PERIOD  EXCEEC
                                   1
                                      24.  +  HOUR  + 1.  +
                                      AT  PROPER RECORD
                                       LAST  RECORD READ
                                   )
XNDX,YMDH
" " ', YMDH
C
CHECK DATA INDEX .-.U.-.^L.^  ~^~i,-,^,
    IF (XNDX - YMDH)  340,350,340
340 CONTINUE
    WRITE (IPRTRflOl)  XNDX,
101 FORMAT (' XNDX  =',F7.0,  .  ...„
   1 INDEX NUMBERS  DO  NOT  AGREE1)
    REWIND 19
    CALL EXIT
350 CONTINUE
    NR1 = NRECP
    NRECS = NREC
CONVERT FT TO M  IN  HA  ARRAY
    DO 355 I=1,NH
 XNDX,CY,CM,CD,1DOW,CH,NRECP,(OBS(I),1=1,NRECP)
(I),1=1,NH),NRPNT
, (QP( I )  ,I=1,NRPNT),WS,WH,P,WD,INDEX,TEMP,CIGMX
D.STAPR
R  AnATN<;T rnMPiiTpn  TNinpy  MIIMRPR
                 ,,,,,,,,
                2, (ZP(I ) , I = 1,NRPNT),(QP(I),I=1,NRPNT),WS,WH,P,WD,I
                3,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR
                CK  DATA INDEX NUMBER  AGAINST  COMPUTED  INDEX NUMBER
                 IF (XNDX - YMDH)  340,350,340
                                                 = ' ,F7.0

-------
                 HA{ I )  = 0.3048 * HA( I )
             355 CONTINUE
                 I HOUR  = HUUR
                 IF (IHOUR) 360t360,370
             360 CONTINUE
                 IHOUR  = 24
             370 CONTINUE
                 CALL DOWCHl IDOW, ID)
                 NG = GX * GY
                 DO 380 1=1, NG
                 II = NG + 1 - I
                 12 = 11+ NG
                 13 = 12 + NG
                 CALL ASHE(TEMP, ID  , I HOUR, RES (I ) ,COM( I),XIND(I),QSIJ(I1),QSIJ(I3)
                1,QSIJ( 12) )
             380 CONTINUE
                 RETURN
                 END


                 SUBROUTINE DOWCH( I DOW , ID 1
           C ROUTINE TO CLASSIFY DAYS OF WEEK
           C         DAY        INPUT(IDOW)  OUTPUT(ID)
           C          MON           1         2
           C          TUE           22
           C          WED           3         2
           C          THU           4         2
           C          FRI           52
           C          SAT           6         3
           C          SUN OR HOL  7 TO 17     1
                 IF ( IOOW - 6) 20,30,10
              10 CONTINUE
                 ID = 1
                 GO TO  40
              20 CONTINUE
                 ID = 2
                 GO TO  40
              30 CONTINUE
                 ID = 3
              40 CONTINUE
                 RETURN
                 END


                 SUBROUTINE PRAMB
                 COMMON/ B AS I C/ I PR TR, I STAR, I ERR , I S I GD ,NXLI M , NXZLM , NLI , XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
           C           NLI = MAXIMUM NUMBER OF LOG INCREMENTS  IN INTEGRATION
           C          XONE = CLOSEST SOURCE DISTANCE USED  (METERS)
           C           CONX= LOGARITHMIC INCREMENT FOR INTEGRATION VARIABLES
           C         ISIGD = INDICATES OPTION FOR DEFINING DIFFUSION PARAMETERS
           C                    1 = MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS  USING  TURNER  STAB.
           C                    2 = MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS  USING  RICHARDSON NC.
           C                    3 = MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS  USING  BROOKHAVEN STA6
           C                    4 = PASQUILL PARAMETERS USING  TURNER STABILITY CAT.
           C         DECAY = DECAY  CONSTANT (PER  SEC)
                 ICARD  = 5
                 IPRTR  = 6
                 NLI =  20
                 XONE = 50.
                 XMAX = 5.5E4
                 RN = 1. / (NLI - 1)
                 CONX = (XMAX / XONE)**RN
                 ISIGD  = 4
                 DECAY=0.
                 RETURN
                 END
O
0



-------
                 SUBROUTINE ASHEdEMP, ID , I H, RES ,COM, XI NO ,OR , QC ,QI )
             ASHE CALCULATES HOURLY EMISSION RATE FOR AREA SOURCES
C INPUTS TEMP - AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
C ID - DAY OF WEEK INDEX ( 1 -
C IH - HOUR OF DAY ( 1 - 24 )
C RES - RESIDENTIAL EMISSION RATE
C COM - COMMERCIAL EMISSION RATE
C XIND - INDUSTRAIL EMISSION RATE
DIMENSION TFR(24,3),TFCI (24,3)
DIMENSION TFR2(24) ,TFCI2(24)


1
2
3
4
5

6
7
8

1
2
3
4
5

6
7
8
C CON1
EQUIVALENCE
DATA TFR/ 8
-5
1
11
-7
-3
DATA TFR2/
10
-6
-5
DATA TFCI/16
6
6
13
-13
-4
DATA TFCI2/
17
-7
-0
(TFR2( 1),TFR( 1,3) )
• lli
.60,
.50,
.11,
.61,
.17,

.08,
.30,
.28,
.87,
.01,
.25,
.32,
.91,
.37,

.03,
.14,
.66,
= ANNUAL DEGREE
9.07,
-7.61,
-1.43,
10.61,
-8.85,
-2.41,

11.97,
-8.01,
-3.82,
17.82,
4.82,
8.70,
13.23,
-12.94,
0.56,

18.19,
-6.74,
2.60,
DAYS *
9. 12,
-8.72,
-0.41,
9.69,
-8.44,
-0.77,

9.69,
-7.26,
-1.73,
18.43,
2.64,
9.92,
12.54,
-12.43,
4.55,

16.30,
-7.00,
5.97,
24. =
, (TFCI2
8.15,
-7.84,
-0.61,
8.54,
-7.46,
-0.01,

8.43,
-9.34,
-0.86,
16.90,
1.38,
10.10,
10.43,
-12.53,
6.62,

14.55,
-6.78,
7.92,
6155. *
3 ,1=H,2=W
(YEARLY)
(YEARLY)
(YEARLY)
(1) ,TFC
6.64,
-5.55,
-1.49,
7.08,
-6.73,
2.56,

6.65,
-8.28,
2.31,
15.15,
0.30,
10.47,
5.64,
-12.39,
9.08,

10.17,
-7.11,
8.90,
24.
I (1
4
-5
-0
3
-6
3

4
-8
3
12
0
12
-1
-11
10

3
-7
11

,3 = S
,3))
.76,
.87,
.60,
.13,
.25,
.22,

.24,
.07,
.85,
.86,
.55,
.01,
.75,
.19,
.41,

.19,
.01,
.47,



1.83,
-4.09,
1.23,
-2. 15,
-5.11,
5.33,

1.85,
-7.78,
5.71,
9.47,
2.98,
12.23,
-8.04,
-9.62,
11.53,

-0.13,
-3.84,
13.48,



0
-2
4
-7
-4
9

-0
-6
8
8
4
12
-11
-7
13

-4
-1
15



.15,
.86,
.78,
.32,
.08,
.117

.73,
.14,
.747
.63,
.49,
.03,
.69,
.88,
.197

.13,
.84,
.867

           C
           C
      DATA CON1/147720.7
  MULTIPLY BY CUNCE TO CONVERT LBS/HR TO GRAMS/SEC
      DATA CONCE/0.1260/
      QRA= .9*RES
      QRC= .1*RES/8760.
  QRA = TEMPERATURE  DEPENDENT PORTION OF RESIDENTIAL AREA  SOURCE  EMISSI
  QRC = HOT WATER REQUIREMENT
      DDR = 65. - (TEMP + TFRUH.IDM
      IF (DDR) 4,5,5
    4 DDR = 0.
    5 CONTINUE
      QR= QRC +QRA*DDR/CON1
C QR = ADJUSTED RESIDENTIAL SOURCE EMISSION RATE
      QCA = .9 *COM
      QCC= .1*COM/8760.
      DDC = 65. - (TEMP + TFCI(IH,ID))
      IF (DDC) 6,7,7
    6 DDC = 0.
    7 CONTINUE
      QC= QCC-
                          QCA*DDC/CON1
                 QI=XIND/8760.
           C  QR,QI,QC  ARE  IN UNITS
                 QR=UR*CONCE
                 QC=QC*CONCE
                 QI=QI*CONCE
                 RETURN
                 END
                        OF LBS/HR- CONVERT TO GRAMS/SEC
C

c

-------
                 SUBROUTINE DISTB
           C  ROUTINE TO SET DISTANCE DEPENDENT ARRAYS.
                 DIMENSION DISTX( 1000) ,XDCAY(2000) ,SSIGZ(1000) ,EXPOZ(2000)
                1.HA15) ,UHA( 5) , QXY(5) ,0(4000)
                 COMMON/BASIC/ I PRTR, I STAR, I ERR , I SI GD , NXL I M , NXZLM , NL I , XONE
                1,XM AX, CUNX, DECAY, INDEX, THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY, DLTA, IND,SIGY
                2,S1GZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW, YW, I CARD, 1C X , XYMI N , XSMAX , YSMAX
                 COMMON/ ARE AS /NX I ,NX,KUTCX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,NH,HA
                 1,UHA,QXY,Q,CONC,NH1
                 COMMON/ WNDSP/WSPDtWHGTfPWI NO
                 DATA ISTRT/0/
                 IP (ISTRT) 30,10»30
              10 CONTINUE
                 ISTRT = 1
           C  SET DISTX ARRAY
                 DISTX(l) = XONE
                 DO 20 I=2,NXLIM
                 J  = I - 1
                 DISTX( I ) = CONX* DISTX( J)
                 IF (DISTX(I) -  DISTX(J) - DLTA) 16,16,14
              14 CONTINUE
                 DISTX( I ) = DISTX( J) + DLTA
              16 CONTINUE
                 IF (DISTX(I) -  XMAX) 18,24,24
              18 CONTINUE
              20 CONTINUE
                 NMISS = (XMAX - DISTX(NXLIM) )/DLTA + 1.
                 WRITE (IPRTRtlOOl)  NM I SS , XMAX , D I STX ( NXL I M )
            1001 FORMAT( 1X18, ' MORE  LOCATIONS REQUESTED FOR DISTX ARRAY, XMAX ='
                1 E10.3,1, DISTX(LAST)=« ,E10.3)
                 CALL EXIT
              24 CONTINUE
                 NLI = I
              30 CONTINUE
           C  SET ARRAYS WHICH DEPEND ON  DISTANCE AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
           C  GET AREA SOURCE  WIND SPEEDS FOR EACH EMISSION HEIGHT
                 DO 40 IH=1,NH
                 UHA(IH) =WSPD*  (HA( I H ) /WHGT ) **PWI NO
              40 CONTINUE
           C  CHECK  THAT DIMENSION LIMIT  NXZLM IS NOT EXCEEDED
                 NHLI=NH*NLI
                 IF (NHLI-NXZLM) 26,26,25
              25 CONTINUE
                 WRITE ( IPRTR, 1004)NXZLM,NHLI
            1004 FORMAT!1  NH *  NLI      EXCEEDS  DIMENSION LIMIT OF',16,',   NH,='
                16,',    NLI=',I6)
                 CALL EXIT
              26 CONTINUE
           C  GET TRAVEL DISTANCE DECAY FACTORS
                 IK = 0
                 DO 60 1 = 1, NLI
                 IDCAY = 0
                 XI = DISTX( I )
                 DO 50 IH=lfNH
                 IK - IK + 1
                 IF (DECAY) 42,42,44
              42 CONTINUE
                 XDCAY(IK) =  1.
                 GO TO 46
              44 CONTINUE
                 XDCAY(IK) =  EXP(-DECAY  * XI / UHA(IH))
                 IF (XDCAY(IK) - l.E-6 ) 45,46,46
              45 CONTINUE
                 IDCAY = IDCAY +• 1
                 IF (IDCAY -  NH) 60,55,55
              55 CONTINUE
                 NXI = I
                 GO TO 62

-------
   46 CONTINUE
   50 CONTINUE
   60 CONTINUE
      NXI = NLI
   62 CONTINUE
  GET SIGMAZ PARAMETERS
      DO 130 1=1,NXI
      XW = DISTXlI)
      CALL SIGZZ
      IF (IERR) 67,68,67
   67 CONTINUE
      RETURN
   68 CONTINUE
      SSIGZ(I) = SIGZ
      IF(SIGZ-CIGMX)70,140,140
   70 CONTINUE
  130 CONTINUE
      KUTEX = NXI
      GO TO 160
  140 CONTINUE
      KUTEX = I
      DO 150 J=I,NXI
      SSIGZ(J) = C1GMX
  150 CONTINUE
  160 CONTINUE
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE CONTR
C ROUTINE TO COMPUTE CONCENTRATION AT RECEPTOR  XR,YR,ZR  FROM  AREA  SOURCE
C GIVEN BY ARRAY Q WITH DIMENSIONS GX,GY,NH.
C THE COMPUTATION IS MADE BY  INTEGRATING THE EFFECTS  FROM  EACH  HGT.  AND
C SUMMING.
      DIMENSION DISTX{1000),XDCAY(2000),SSIGZ(1000),EXPOZ(2000)
     1,HA(5) ,UHA(5),OXY(5),QC4000)
      DIMENSION SXII5),       	
                                         TERMA(5)
                 CUMMON/BASIC/IPRTRtISTARtI ERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,NH,HA
                 liUHAfQXYtQtCONCtNHl
           C  CONST  =  1/(2*SQRT(2*PI))
                 DATA CONST/0.199471/
           C  NHLIM  IS DIMENSION LIMIT  FOR SXI  AND    ' TERMA ARRAYS.
                 DATA NHLIM/5/
                 Yk  = 0.
                 IF  (NH  -  NHLIM) 3,3,2
               2 CONTINUE
                 WRITE(IPRTR,1000)  NHLIM,NH
            1000 FORMAT  ('  NH  EXCEEDS  DIMENSION  LIMIT  OF',16,', NH =',16,',  NH SET
                1TO  LIMIT' )
                 NH1= NHLIM
                 GO  TO 4
               3 CONTINUE
                 NH1  = NH
               4 CONTINUE
                 DO  10 IH=1,NH1
                 SXK IH)  =  0
                 TERMA(IH)  = 0
              10 CONTINUE
f                XWL  = DISTX(l) '
^                DO  110  1=1,NX
                 XK  = DISTX{I)
                 CALL SCORD

-------
      IF (IND) 120,50,120
   50 CONTINUE
      CALL RATE
      IF (I - 1) 60,60,80
   60 CONTINUE
      DO 70 IH=1,NH1
      TERMA(IH) = QXY(IH) * EXPOZ(IH)
   70 CONTINUE
      GO TO 100
   80 CONTINUE
      DO 90 IH=l,NHl
      K = { I -1) * NH +  IH
      TERMB = QXY(IH) *  EXPOZ(K)
      SXKIH) = SXK1H)  + (TERMA(IH) + TERMB) *  (XW -  XWL )
      TERMA(IH) = TERMB
   90 CONTINUE
  100 CONTINUE
      XWL = XW
  110 CONTINUE
      II = NX + 1
      IF (II - NLI) 115,115,140
  115 CONTINUE
      XW = DISTX(II)
  120 CONTINUE
      DO 130 IH=1,NH1
      SXKIH) = SXI(IH)  + TERMA(IH) *  ( XW -  XWL)
  130 CONTINUE
  140 CONTINUE
      CONC = 0
      DO 150 IH=1,NH1
      CONC = CONC + SXI(IH) / UHA(IH)
  150 CONTINUE
      CONC = CONST * CONC
      RETURN
      END
      SUBROUTINE RATE
C A SUBROUTINE TO INTERPOLATE EMISSION RATE OF A POINT  INTERMEDIATE  TO
C POINTS ON A STANDARD GRID SYSTEM
      DIMENSION DISTXl1000),XDCAY(2000),SSIGZ(1000),EXPOZ(2000)
     1,HA(5),UHA(5),OXY(5),Q(4000)
      COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,I SIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
     1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
     2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
      COMMON/AREAS/NXI,NX,KUTEX,DISTXfXDCAYtSSIGZ,EXPOZ»NHtHA
      1,UHA,OXY,Q,CONC,NH1
C INITIALIZE INTEGER CONSTANTS
      IGRD = GX
      JGRD = GY
      NG = IGRD * JGRD
      X = XS/ DLTA
      IX = X
      Y = YS/ DLTA
      IY = Y
C CHECK IF POINT IS ON OUTSIDE FRINGE OF GRID, I.E. WITHIN 0.5 GRIDS CF
C EDGE.  IF POINT IS IN FRINGE CORNER, USE CORNER GRID  VALUES.   CTHER
C POINTS, LINEARLY INTERPOLATE BETWEEN EDGE GRID POINTS.
      IF (X - IGRD) 10,1,1
    1 CONTINUE
      IF (Y - JGRD) 5,2,2
    2 CONTINUE
      K = 0
    3 CONTINUE
C USE CORNER VALUE.

-------
                 K  =  K  +  NG
                 OXY(I)  = Q(K)
               4  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
               5  CONTINUE
                 IF (IY)  6,6,7
               6  CONTINUE
                 K  =  IGRD - NG
                 GO TO  3
               7  CONTINUE
                 Kl =  IY  * IGRD - NG
                 K2 =  Kl  + IGRD
                 DK =  Y  - IY
               8  CONTINUE
           C  USE  LINEAR  INTERPOLATION ON EDGE
                 DO 9  1=1,NH1
                 Kl =  Kl  + NG
                 K2 =  K2  + NG
                 QXY(I)  = Q(K1) + DK * (Q(K2) - Q(KD)
,               9  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
              10  CONTINUE
                 IF (IX)  11, 11,16
              11  CONTINUE
1                 IF (Y  -  JGRD)  13,12,12
              12  CONTINUE
                 K  =  1  -  IGRD
f                 GO TO  3
C             13  CONTINUE
                 IF (IY)  14,14,15
              14  CONTINUE
,-                K  =  1  -  NG
V>                GO TO  3
              15  CONTINUE
                 K2 =  IY  * IGRD + 1  - NG
                 Kl =  K2  - IGRD
v                 DK =  Y  - IY
                 GO TO  8
              16  CONTINUE
                 IF (Y  -JGRD)  18,17,17
              17  CONTINUE
                 Kl =  IX  - IGRD
                 K2 =  Kl  + 1
                 DK =  X  - IX
                 GO TO  8
              18  CONTINUE
                 IF (IY)  19,19,20
              19  CONTINUE
                 Kl =  IX  - NG
                 K2 =  Kl  + 1
                 DK =  X  - IX
                 GO TO  8
              20  CONTINUE
           C  DETERMINE  WHICH TRIANGLE OF GRID POINTS WILL BE USED FOR INTERPOLATE
                 BX =  X  - IX
                 BY =  Y  - IY
                 IF (BX  - BY)  200,100,100
             100  CONTINUE
                 Kl =  IX  + (IY  - 1)  * IGRD - NG
r-                DO 150  1 = 1,NH1
•->                Kl =  Kl  + NG
                 K2 =  K1+ 1
                 K4 =  K2  + IGRD
r                QXY(I)=Q(K1)    > BX * ( Q(K2     )-C(Kl   ))+BY*(Q(K4)- Q(K2))
v-            150  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
             200  CONTINUE
r                Kl =  IX  + (IY  - 1)  * IGRD - NG
\^




-------
                 DO 300 1=1,NH1
                 Kl = Kl + NG
                 K3 = Kl + IGRD
                 KA = K3 + 1
                 QXY(I)=Q(K1)   + BY * (Q(K3     )-Q(Kl   ))+BX*(Q(K4) - Q(K3))
             300 CONTINUE
                 RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE EXPZB
           C  ROUTINE TO COMPUTE VERTICAL DIFFUSION FACTOR INCLUDING EFFECTS OF
           C    DECAY AND GROUND REFLECTIONS FOR EACH OF NH SOURCE HEIGHTS.
           C  BASIC EQUATION IS
           C          EXPUZ = ( XDCAY / SIGZ ) *(EXP(-0.5*((HA-ZR)/SIGZ)**2) +
           C                                    EXP(-0.5*( (HA+ZR)/SIGZ)**2) )
                 DIMENSION DISTXl1000),XDCAY(2000),SSIGZ(1000),EXPOZ(2000)
                1,HA(5),UHA{5),QXY(5),0(4000)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,I SI GO,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX , XYMIN,XSKAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,NH,HA
                 1,UHA,QXY,Q,CONC,NH1
           C  INPUTS
           C               ZR = RECEPTOR  HEIGHT
           C               NH = NUMBER OF SOURCE HEIGHTS
           C               HA = ARRAY OF  SOURCE HEIGHTS
           C            CIGMX = MIXING CEILING
           C            SSIGZ = VERTICAL  DIFFUSION  PARAMETER
           C  OUTPUT
           C            EXPOZ = VERTICAL  DIFFUSION  FACTOR
                 K = 0
                 DO 60 J=1,NXI
                 G = 2. *CIGMX/SSIGZ(J)
                 DO 50 1=1,NH
                 F = (HA(I) - ZR) /SSIGZ(J)
                 IF (F*F -  50.) 12,12,10
              10 CONTINUE
                 El = 0
              11 CONTINUE
                 E2 = 0
                 GO TO 15
              12 CONTINUE
                 El = EXP(-0.5 * F  * F)
                 F = (HA(I) + ZR) /SSIGZtJ)
                 IF (F- 7.) 13,13,11
              13 CONTINUE
                 E2 = EXP(-0.5 * F  * F)
              15 CONTINUE
                 K = K + 1
                 EXPOZ(K)  ={(E1 + E2)      /SSIGZ(J))  * XDCAY(K)
r-             50 CONTINUE
lv             60 CONTINUE
                 NX = NXI
                 RETURN

C                END



C




-------
C
                 SUBROUTINE INCRT
           C  THIS SUbROUTINE INCREMENTS THE TIME AT CONCENTRATIONS ARE CALC. BY THE
           C  DIFFUSION PROGRAM. IN ADDITION TO THIS IT GENERATES THE TIME INDEX
           C  WHICH IS USED TO GENERATE THE SOURCE MATRIX AND METEOROLOGICAL  INPUTS
           C  CORRESPONDING TO THE TIME AT WHICH THE CONCENTRATION IS REQUIRED.
                 DIMENSION YEARR(2) ,AMONN(2),DAYY(2) ,HOURR{2)
                 COMMON/DAT I ME /DH,STOP,YEARR,AMONN,DAYY,HOURR,HOURL
                 DIMENSION DIM(12)
           C  DIM IS AN ARRAY REPRESENTING THE NUMBER OF DAYS IN EACH MONTH
                 DATA DIM/31.,28.,31.,30.,31.,30.,31.,31.,30.,31.,30.,31./
           C  THE ARRAYS YEARR, AMONN, DAYY, HOURR CONTAIN THE YEAR (TWO DIGITS),MO.
           C  DAY, AND HOUR OF THE FIRST AND LAST CALCULATION (INDEX=1 AND INDEX=2
           C  RESPECTIVELY)
           C  CHECK FOR LEAP YEAR
                 TEST= YEARR(l) / 4.
                 ITEST=TEST
                 IF(TEST-ITEST) 200,100,200
             100 CONTINUE
           C  YEAR( 1)  IS A LEAP YEAR
                 DIM(2)=29.
                 GO TO 220
             200 CONTINUE
                 DIM(2) = 28.
             220 CONTINUE
           C  INCREMENT HOUR
                 HOURR(l) = HOURR(l)  + DH
           C  CHECK TO SEE IF HOUR(1)  IS IN THE SAME DAY
                 IF(HOURR(D-HOURL)  600,600,300
             300 CONTINUE
           C  HOUR(l)  IS NOT IN THE SAME DAY
                 HOURR(l) = HOURR(l)  - 24.
                 DAYY( 1) = DAYY( 1 ) +  1.
           C  CHECK TO SEE IF DAY(l)  IS IN THE SAME MONTH
                 MONTH=AMONN(1)
                 IF (DAYY(l) - DIM(MONTH)) 600,600,400
             400 CONTINUE
           C  DAY(l) IS NOT IN THE SAME MONTH
                 AMONNt1) = AMONN(1)  + 1.
                 DAYY(l) = DAYY(l) -  DIM(MONTH)
           C  CHECK TO SEE IF MONTH(l) IS  IN SAME YEAR
                 IF(AMONN(1 )-12.) 600,600,500
             500 CONTINUE
           C  MONTH(l) IS NOT IN THE  SAME  YEAR
                 AMONN(l) = AMONN(l)  - 12.
                 YEARRt1) = YEARR( 1)  + 1.
             600 CONTINUE
           C  CHECK TO SEE IF THIS IS  LAST INCREMENT
                 IF (YEARR(l) - YEARR12)) 1100,700,1000
             700 CONTINUE
           C  YEARS ARE THE SAME
                 IF(AMONN(1)-AMONN(2)) 1100,800,1000
             800 CONTINUE
           C  MONTHS ARE THE SAME
                 IF (DAYY(l) - DAYY12)) 1100,900,1000
             900 CONTINUE
           C  DAYS ARE THE SAME
                 IF (HOURR(i) - HOURR(2M 1100,1100,1000
            1000 CONTINUE
           C  STOP INCREMENTING
                 STOP=1.
                 RETURN
            1100 CONTINUE
                 STOP=0.
                 RETURN
                 END

-------
                             Exhibit D-2

               LISTING OF FORTRAN CODE COMPUTER PROGRAM
          AND SUBROUTINES USED FOR SENSITIVITY  CALCULATIONS*

-------
           C  DIFFUS3 - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
                 DIMENSION DTHTA(IO)
                 DATA DTHTA/-45.,-10.,-3.,0.,3.,10.,45./
                 DIMENSION YEARR(2)|AMONN(2),DAYY(?),HOURR(2)
                 DIMENSION CNCT(50),CARE A(50),CPOIN(50),XRR(50),YRR(50),ZRR(50)
                l,OBS02(50),OSET(12,54)
                 DIMENSION DISTX(200,7),XDCAY(600,7),SSIGZ(200,7),EXPOZ(600,7)
                1,HA{5),UHA(5),QXY(5),Q(3600),QX(200,3,1,7),NQX(7,3)
                 DIMENSION XP (100),YP (100),ZP ( 100),QP(100)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGO,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE,XMAX,CCN>
                It DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY, DLTA,IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/DATIME /DH,STOP,YEARR,AMONN,DAYY,HOURR
                 COMMON/OUTPUT/YEAR.AMON,DAY,HOUR ,NRECP,CNCT,CAREA,CPOIN,XRR,YRR
                1,ZRR,OBS02,IDOW,NR1,TEMP,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR,OSET,INDC
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UHA
                It  OXY,0   ,CONC,NH1,QX,NQX
                 COMMON/WNDSP/WSPD,WHGT,PWIND
                 COMMON/POINTS/NPS  ,XP ,YP ,ZP , QP,CONPS,NPSS
           C  SET CONTROL PARAMETERS
                 IERR = 0
                 INDO = 0
                 ICARD = 5
,                 IPRTR = 6
                 NLI  = 20
                 XMAX = 5.SEA
                 XONE = 1.
                 RN = 1. / (NLI - 1 )
                 CONX = (XMAX / XONE)**RN
           C  GET BASE EMISSION FIELD,  RECEPTOR LOCATIONS AND WIND DIRECTION
                 CALL SENDA
                 WRIFElIPRTR,901) ICARD,IPRTR,XONE,XMAX,CONX
             901 FORMAT(/' CONTROL PARAMETERS'/4X'1CARD',3X'IPRTR',8X'
                1' ,8X'CONX'/1X2I8,3E12.3/)
                 XYMIN = 0.5 * DLTA
                 XSMAX = (GX + 0.5) *  DLTA
                 YSMAX = (GY + 0.5) *  DLTA
           C  GET OX ARRAY
              20 CONTINUE
                 THTA1 = THTA
                 CALL GENQX
                 IF (IERR) 150,30,150
              30 CONTINUE
                 10 = 0
           C  CYCLE  ON DIFFUSION PARAMETERS
                 DO 148 18=1,3
                 GO TO (45,46,47),18
              45 CONTINUE
                 ISIGD = 4
                 INDEX = 5
                 GO TO 48
              46 CONTINUE
                 ISIGD = 1
                 INDEX = 4
                 GO TO 48
              47 CONTINUE
                 ISIGD = 2
                 INDEX = 1
              48 CONTINUE
           C  CYCLE  ON MIXING CEILING
                 CIGMX = 20.
                 DO 147 17=1,2
                 CIGMX = 5. * CIGMX
,.                ISTAR = 0
                 CALL SIGZZ
                 ISTAR = 1
                 IF (IERR) 150,50,150
r             50 CONTINUE

-------
           C  CYCLE  ON WIND PROFILE POWER
                 PWIND = 0.075
                 DO 146 16=1,1
                 PWIND = 2.  * PWIND
           C  CYCLE  ON WIND SPEED
                 WSPD = 2. / 3.
                 DO 145 15=1,3
                 WSPD = 3. * WSPD
                 WRITE (IPRTR.900)
             900  FORMAT(//'l INDO',2X'AREA CONC.•,3X'PT. CONC.1
                A                 ,2X'TOT. CONC.',3X'ISIGD1,3X'INDEX',3X'CIGMX',3X
                1'PWIND',4X«WSPD',3X'DECAY',3X'NH',4X'THTA',3X'NPS',2X'RECEPTOR'/)
           C  CYCLE  ON DECAY  CONSTANT
                 DO 144 14=1,1
                 GO TO (51,52,53) ,14
              51  CONTINUE
                 DECAY = 0.
                 GO TO 54
              52  CONTINUE
                 DECAY = 0.0003851
                 GO TO 54
              53  CONTINUE
                 DECAY = 0.05
              54  CONTINUE
           C  CYCLE  ON DISTRIBUTION OF EMISSION HEIGHTS
                 DO 143 13=1,1
                 GO TO (55,56),13
              55  CONTINUE
v                 NH = 1
                 HA(1) = 30.
                 GO TO 57
f              56  CONTINUE
<• >                NH = 3
                 HA{1) = 15.
                 HA(2) = 30.
                 HA(3) = 45.
5              57  CONTINUE
                 CALL DISTC
                 IF (IERR) 150,58,150
              58  CONTINUE
                 CALL EXPZC
           C  CYCLE  ON GRID SPACING
                 DO 142 12=1,7
                 THTA = THTA1+ DTHTAU2) * 3.14159  / 180.
                 ISTAR = 0
                 CALL SCORD
                 CALL WCORD
                 ISTAR = 1
           C  CYCLE  UN NUMBER OF  POINT SOURCES
                 DO 141 11=1,1
                 GO TO (65,66,67),II
              65  CONTINUE
                 NPSS = 51
                 GO TO 68
              66  CONTINUE
                 NPSS = 19
                 GO TO 68
              67  CONTINUE
                 NPSS = 0
              68  CONTINUE
           C  CYCLE  ON RECEPTOR LOCATION
                 DO 140 1=1,3
                 INDO = INDO + 1
r                 10 = 10 + 1
(                 XR = XRR(I)       .
                 YR = YRR(I)
                 CALL CONTRS(1,11,12)
£                 CONPS =0.





-------
                 IF  (NPS)  100,100,85
              85  CONTINUE
                 CALL  POINT
                 IF  (IERR)  90,100,90
              90  CONTINUE
                 WRITE(IPRTR,1002)  INDO
            1002  FORMATt/1  ERROR RETURN
                 GO  TO 150
             100  CONTINUE
                          10)
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                          10
                        FROM POISN, INDO =',I8/)
1 ,
 2,
 3,
 OSET(
 OSET(
 OSET(
 OSETl
 OSET(
 OSET(
 OSET(
 OSET(
 OSET(
 OSET(10,
 OSET( 11,
 OSET(12,
8,
9,
= CONC * 1.E6
= CONPS * 1.E6
         CONPS)
                         * 1.E6
                   =(CONC
                   = NPS
                   = THTA
                   = NH
                   = DECAY
                   = WSPD
                   = PWIND
                   = CIGMX
                   = ISIGD
                   = XRR( I )
    WRITEl IPRTR, 902) INDO, ( OSET ( N , I 0 ) ,N= 1
   1,PWIND,WSPD,DECAY,NH,THTA,NPS,XRR(I )
902 FORMAT! 1XI5,3E12.3,2I8,F8.0,F8.3,F8.1,F8.3,I5,F8
140 CONTINUE
141 CONTINUE
142 CONTINUE
143 CONTINUE
144 CONTINUE
    CALL OUTSE
    10 = 0
145 CONTINUE
146 CONTINUE
147 CONTINUE
148 CONTINUE
149 CONTINUE
    THTA = 0
    GO TO 20
             150
                                                       3) , ISIGD,INDEX,CIGMX
                                                                  3, I6,F9.0)
                          35
 CONTINUE
 END FILE
                 CALL
                 END
      EXIT
                          12
c
C
 SUBROUTINE GENQX
 DIMENSION QA(3),QB(3),QC(3)
 DIMENSION QR(4,4)
 DIMENSION DTHTA(IO)
 DATA DTHTA/-45.,-10.,-3.,0.,3.,10.,45./
 DIMENSION CNCT(SO),CAREA(50),CPOIN(50),XRR(50),YRR(50),ZRR(50)
1,OBS02(50),OSET(12,54)
 DIMENSION DISTX(200,7),XDCAY{600,7),SSIGZ(200,7),EXPOZ(600,7)
1,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),0(3600),QX(200,3,1,7),NOX(7,3)
 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE,XMAX,CON)
1,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY, DLTA,IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
2,XW,YK,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSN'.AX
 COMMON/OUTPUT/YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR ,NRECP,CNCT,CAREA,CPCIN,XRR,YRR
1,ZRR,OBS02,IDOW,NR1,TEMP,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR,OSET,INDO
 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,D1STX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UHA
1,  QXY,Q   ,CONC,NH1,QX,NQX
 NXLIM = 200
 YW = 0.
 THTA1 = THTA
 DO 10 J=l,3
 DO 10 1=1,7
 NQX(I,J)  = 0

-------
              10  CONTINUE
                 READ (ICARD,1000)  IR1
            1000  FORMAT  (I 10)
                 WRITE(IPRTR,1001)  IR1
            1001  FORMAT(/'  INITIAL  RANDOM NO.  INTEGER =',I10)
                 IRS  =  IR1
                 GX  = 120.
                 GY  = 160.
                 DLTA =  381.
                 DO  200  IB=1,7
                 IR1  =  IRS
                 THTA =  THTAU DTHTA(IB)  * 3.14159 / 180.
                 ISTAR  = 0
                 CALL SCORD
                 CALL WCORD
                 ISTAR  = 1
           C  SET  DISTX  ARRAY
                 OISTX(lflB)  = XONE
                 DO  20  I=2,NXLIM
                 J =  I  - 1
                 DISTX(I.IB)  = CONX * DISTX(JflB)
                 IF  (DISTXUfIB) -  DISTX(J.IB)  - DLTA)  16,16,14
              14  CONTINUE
,                 DISTXdtIB)  = DISTXU,IB) + DLTA
(              16  CONTINUE
                 IF  ( DISTX(I,IB)  - XMAX) 18,24,24
              18  CONTINUE
f.             20  CONTINUE
'                 NMISS  = (XMAX - DISTX(NXLIM,IB))  / DLTA + 1.
                 WRITE  (IPRTR,1002) NMISS,XMAX,DISTX(NXLIM , IB)
            1002  FORMAT! 1X18,' MORE LOCATIONS  REQUESTED FOR  DISTX ARRAY, XMAX ='
,                1 E10.3,',  DISTX(LAST)=«,E10.3)
(>                I6RR =  1
                 RETURN
              24  CONTINUE
                 NLI  =  I
V                DO  300  IC=lt3
                 XR  = XRR( 1C)
                 YR  = YRR(1C)
                 KLAST  = 0
v                DO  100  J=1,NLI
                 XW  = DISTX(J,IB)
                 CALL SCORD
                 CALL GCHEKS
                 IF  (IND)  110,40,110
              40  CONTINUE
              50  CONTINUE
                 1X1  =  XS  / 1524.  + 0.5
                 IY1  =  YS  / 1524.  + 0.5
                 K =  ( IY1  - 1) * 30 + 1X1
                 IF  (K  - KLAST) 51,52,51
              51  CONTINUE
           C  GENERATE SUB-GRID FOR  BLOCK  K EMISSIONS
                 KLAST  = K
                 QM  = Q(K)
                 CALL QAREAt IR1.QM.QR)
                 IF  ( IERR) 360,52,360
              52  CONTINUE
                 IX  = XS /  DLTA -  1.
f                 IY  = YS /  DLTA -  1.
                 1X2=IX-4*(IX1-1)
                 IY2  =  IY  - 4  * (IY1 -  1)
                 QX(J,1C,1,18) = OR(IX2,IY2)
r            100  CONTINUE
<-;                NQXUB.IC) =  NLI
                 GO  TO  300
             110  CONTINUE
p                NQX(IB,1C) =  J -  1





-------
                         1,1)  -
                         1,1)  -
300 CONTINUE
200 CUNTINUE
    IF (NQX{
310 CONTINUE
    IF (NQX(
320 CONTINUE
    ICX = 1
    GO TO 360
330 CONTINUE
    ICX = 3
    GO TO 360
340 CONTINUE
    IF (NQX(1,2)
350 CONTINUE
    ICX = 2
360 CONTINUE
    RETURN
    END
NQX(1,2)) 340,310,310

NQX(1,3)) 330,320,320
                              - NQX( 1,3))  330,350,350
                 SUBROUTINE SENDA
                 DIMENSION ICP( 100) ,XPP(100),YPP(100),ZPP(100)
                 DIMENSION CNCT(50 ) ,CAREA{50),CPCIN(50),XRR(50), YRR(50),ZRR(50)
                1,OBS02(50),OSET(12,54)
                 DIMENSION DISTX(200,7),XDCAY(600,7),SSIGZ(200,7),EXPOZ(600,7)
                1,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),Q(3600),QX(200,3,1,7),NQX(7,3)
                 DIMENSION XP (100),YP (100),ZP ( 100),QP(100)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI, XONE,XMAX,CON>
                1,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY, DLTA,IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW, I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/OUTPUT/YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR ,NRECP,CNCT,CAREA,CPCIN,XRR,YRR
                l,ZRR,OBS02,IUOW,NR1,TEMP,SIGA,RIB,PCPN,WGLD,STAPR,OSET,INDO
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UHA
                1,  OXY,Q    ,CONC,NH1,QX,NQX
                 COMMON/WNDSP/WSPD,WHGT,PWIND
              50
                 COMMON/POINTS/NPS
                        XP ,YP  ,ZP  ,QP,CONPS,NPSS
                                 DLTA,GX,GY,WHGT,THTA,NH,NPS,(XPP(N),YPP(N),ZPP(N)
              55
              60
              70
                                       * DLTA *  TAN(THTA)

                                       * DLTA *  TAN(THTA)
O
    READ (10) YMDH,
   1,QP(N),N=1,NPS)
    NG = GX * GY
    DO 50 1=1,NH
    Nl = ( I -1) * NG
    READ (10) (Q(N+N1),N=1,NG)
    CONTINUE
    XRR(2) = 16.5 * DLTA
    YRR(2) = 20.5 * DLTA
    XRR( 1 ) = XRR( 2) •»•  9,
    YRR(1) = 29.5 * DLTA
    XRR(3) = XRR(2) - 18,
    YRR(3) =  2.5 * DLTA
    ZR = 0.
    DO 55 1=1,NPS
    ICP( I ) = I
    CONTINUE
    CALL SORTK ICP)
    DU 60 1=1,NPS
    J = ICP(I )
    XP(I) = XPP(J)
    YP( I ) = YPP(J)
    ZP(I) = ZPP(J)
    CONTINUE
    AREA = DLTA * DLTA
    DO 70 1 = 1,NG
    0(1) = Q(I) + Q/U+NG)  + Q(I+2*NG)
    0(1) = Q(I) / AREA
    CONTINUE
    RETURN
    END

-------
                 SUBROUTINE  SORT1 (ICP)
                 DIMENSION ICP(l)
                 DIMENSION CP(100)
                 DIMENSION XP (100),YP (100),ZP (100) , QP(100)
                 COMMON/POINTS/NPS   ,XP  ,YP ,ZP ,OP,CONPS,NPSS
                 EUUIVALENCE (CP(1),QP(1))
                 ITEMS  =  NPS
                 NP  =  ITEMS
               1  NP  =  NP/2
                 IF(NP)  7,7,2
               2  K  = ITEMS - NP
                 J  = 1
               3  I  = J
                 M  = I  +  NP
               4  IF  (CP( I ) - CP(M))  6,6,5
               5  SAVE  =  CPU )
                 CP(I)  =  CP(M)
                 CP(M)  =  SAVE
                 ISAVE  =  ICP( I )
                 ICP(I)=  ICP(M)
                 ICP(M)=  ISAVE
                 M  = I
                 I  = I  -  NP
                 IF  (I  -  1)  6,4,A
               6  J  = J  +  1
                 IF  (J  -  K)  3,3,1
               7  RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE  QAREA ( I R 1 , QM , QR )
                 COMMON/ BASIC/ I PR TR, I STAR, I ERR , I SI GD , NXL I M ,NXZLM , NL I , XCNE , XMAX , CCN>
                1, DEC AY, INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,  DLTA , I ND , S IGY , S IGZ , XR , YR , ZR , XS , YS
                2,XW,YW,ICARD, I CX , XYM I N , XSMAX , YSMAX
                 DIMENSION  QR(4,4)
                 DO  40  J = l,4
                 DO  30  1=1,4
                 CALL RANDU( IR1, IR2,RFL)
                 CALL NDTRI (RFL,QN,QD, IER)
                 IF  (IER)  10,20,10
              10 CONTINUE
                 WRITE( IPRTR, 1000)  RFL,IR1,IR2
            1000 FURMATt/'  RANDOM NO.  ERROR,  RFL  =',F10.5,«  ,IR1 =',110,', IR2 ='
                1, IIO/)
                 IERR =  IER
                 RETURN
              20 CONTINUE
                 IR1 =  IR2
                 IF  (QN  +  2.)  25,25,26
              25 CONTINUE
                 OR( I, J)  =  0.
                 GO  TO  30
              26 CONTINUE
             USE STD. DEV.  = 0.5  *  MEAN
                 QR( I, J) = (ON *  0.5  + 1. ) *  QM
              30 CONTINUE
              40 CONTINUE
                 RETURN
                 END
C



-------
c

X)
           C        SUBROUTINE NDTRI
           C           COMPUTES  X  =  P**(-1)(Y),  THE  ARGUMENT  X  SUCH  THAT  Y=P(X)  =
           C           THE PROBABILITY  THAT  THE  RANDOM  VARIABLE  U, DISTRIBUTED
           C           NORMALLYJO,1 ) ,  IS  LESS  THAN OR EQUAL TO  X.  FIX),  THE
           C           ORDINATE  OF  THE  NORMAL  DENSITY,  AT  X,  IS  ALSO COMPUTED.
           C        DESCRIPTION  OF  PARAMETERS
           C           P - INPUT PROBABILITY.
           C           X - OUTPUT  ARGUMENT SUCH  THAT P  =  Y =  THE  PROBABILITY THAT
           C                  U, THE RANDOM  VARIABLE, IS  LESS  THAN OR EQUAL  TO X.
           C           D - OUTPUT  DENSITY, F(X).
           C           IER - OUTPUT  ERROR CODE
           C                 =-1 IF  P  IS  NOT  IN  THE  INTERVAL  (0,1),  INCLUSIVE.
           C                 =0  IF  THERE  IS  NO ERROR. SEE  REMARKS, BELCW.
           C        REMARKS
           C           MAXIMUM ERROR IS 0.00045.
           C           IF P = 0, X  IS  SET TO -(10)**74. D  IS  SET  TO  0.
           C           IF P = 1, X  IS  SET TO   (10)**74. D  IS  SET  TO  0.
           C        METHOD
           C           BASED ON  APPROXIMATIONS IN C. HASTINGS,  APPROXIMATIONS FCR
           C           DIGITAL COMPUTERS, PRINCETON  UNIV.  PRESS,  PRINCETON,  N.J.,
           C           1955. SEE EQUATION 26.2.23, HANDBOOK OF  MATHEMATICAL
           C           FUNCTIONS,  ABRAMOWITZ AND STEGUN,DOVER  PUBLICATIONS,  INC.,
           C           NEW YORK.
                 SUBROUTINE NDTRI(P,X,D,IE)
                 IE = 0
                 I F ( P ) 11 4 , 2
               1 IE=-1
                 GO TO 12
               2IF(P-1.0)7,6,1
               4 X=-.999999E+38
               5 0=0.0
                 GO TO 12
               6 X=.999999E+38
                 GO TO 5
               7 D=P
                 IF(D-0.5)9,9,8
               8 D-l.O-D
               9 T2=ALOG(1.0/(D*D))
                 T=SQRT(T2)
                 X=T-(2.515517+0.802853*1+0.010328*12)/(I.0+1.432788*1+0.189269*12
                1  +0.001308*T*T2)
                 IF(P-0.5)10,10,11
              10 X=-X
              11 D=0.3989423*EXP(-X*X/2.0)
              12 RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE RANDU(I X,1Y,YFL)
                 IY=IX*899
                 IF(IY)5,6,6
               5 IY=IY+2147483647+1
               6 YFL = IY
                 YFL=YFL/2147483647.
                 RETURN

-------
                 SUBROUTINE RATEA(J,IB,1C,X,Y)
           C  A  SUBROUTINE TO INTERPOLATE EMISSION RATE OF A POINT INTERMEDIATE TO
           C  POINTS  ON A STANDARD GRID SYSTEM
                 DIMENSION QA(3),QB(3),QC(3)
                 DIMENSION D1STX(200,3).XDCAY(600,3),SSIGZ(200,3),EXPOZ(600,3)
                1,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),Q(3600),QX(200,3,3,3),NQX(3,3)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,I SI GO,NXLIM,NXZLM.NLI,XONE,XMAX,CONX
                1,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,  DLTA,IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYKIN,XSMAX,YSKAX
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UHA
                1,  QXY,Q   ,CONC,NH1,QX,NQX
           C  INITIALIZE  INTEGER  CONSTANTS
                 1GRD =  GX + 0.5
                 JGRD =  GY
                 NG  = IGRD * JGRD
                 IX  = X
                 IY  = Y
           C  CHECK  IF POINT IS  ON OUTSIDE FRINGE  OF GRID, I.E. WITHIN 0.5 GRIDS OF
           C  EDGE.   IF POINT IS  IN  FRINGE CORNER, USE  CORNER GRID VALUES.  OTHER
           C  POINTS,  LINEARLY INTERPOLATE BETWEEN EDGE GRID POINTS.
                 IF  (X - IGRD)  10,1,1
               1 CONTINUE
                 IF  (Y - JGRD)  5,2,2
               2 CONTINUE
                 K  =  NG
               3 CONTINUE
,           C  USE CORNER  VALUE.
                 GO  TO (60,31,32),IB
             31 CONTINUE
                 QA(1) = Q(K)
,-.                1X1= X  + 0.5
v>                XI  = 1X1* DLTA
                 IY1= Y  + 0.5
                 Yl  = IY1* DLTA
                 GO  TO 33
v-            32 CONTINUE
                 1X1= X  + 0.5
                 IY1= Y  + 0.5
                 CALL QCOMB(1X1,IY1.QD)
                 QA(1) = QD
                 XI  = ( 1X1- 0.375)  *  DLTA
                 Yl  = ( IY1- 0.375)  *  DLTA
             33 CONTINUE
                 QA{2) = QA(1)
                 QA(3) = QA(l)
                 IQI  = 1
                 CALL ADDPO(IQI,X1,Y1,QA,QB,QC)
                 DO  35 1=1,3
                 QX(J, 1C, I,IB)  = QA(I)
             35 CONTINUE
                 GO  TO 57
               5 CONTINUE
                 IF  (IY) 6,6,7
               6 CONTINUE
^                K  =  IGRD
                 GO  TO 3
               7 CONTINUE
                 Kl  = IY * IGRD
r                K2  = Kl «• IGRD
                 Dl  = Y  - IY
                 IQI  = 3
               8 CONTINUE
r          C  USE LINEAR  INTERPOLATION  ON EDGE
^                GO  TO (60,41,42),IB
             41 CONTINUE
                 QA(1) = Q(K1)

-------
                 IF  ( IQI  -  3)  47,48,48
              47  CONTINUE
                 XI  =  IX  *  DLTA
                 IY1  =  Y  *  0.5
                 Yl  =  IY1 * DLTA
                 GO  TO  45
              48  CONTINUE
                 1X1  =  X  +  0.5
                 XI  =  1X1 * DLTA
                 Yl  =  IY  *  DLTA
                 GO  TO  45
              42  CONTINUE
                 IF  ( IQI  -  3)  43,44,44
              43  CONTINUE
                 IY1  =  Y  +  0.5
                 Yl  =  IY1 * DLTA
                 XI  =  IX  *  DLTA
                 CALL  QCOMB( IX , IY1,QD)
                 QA(l)  =  QD
                 1X1  =  IX + 1
                 CALL  QCCIMB(IXl.IYltQD)
                 QB( I)  =  QD
                 GO  TO  45
              44  CONTINUE
                 1X1  =  X  +  0.5
                 XI  =  1X1 * DLTA
                 Yl  =  IY  *  DLTA
f                CALL  QCOMBl1X1,IY,QD)
<•                QA( 1)  =  QD
                 IY1  =  IY + I
                 CALL  QCOMBt1X1,IY1.QD)
,-                QB(1)  =  QD
V>             45  CONTINUE
                 QA(2)  =  QA(1)
                 QA{3)  =  QA(1)
, .                QB(2)  =  QB(1)
v                QB13)  =  QB(1)
                 CALL  ADDPOlIQI,X1,Yl,QA,QB,QC)
                 DO  46  1=1,3
                 QX{J,1C,It IB) = QA(I) + D1*(QB(I)  * QA(I))
v             46  CONTINUE
                 GO  TO  57
              10  CONTINUE
                 IF  (IX)  11,11,16
              11  CONTINUE
                 IF  (Y  -  JGRD) 13,12,12
              12  CONTINUE
                 K =  1  -  IGRD  + NG
                 GO  TO  3
              13  CONTINUE
                 IF  (IY)  14,14,15
              14  CONTINUE
                 K =  1
                 GO  TO  3
              15  CONTINUE
                 K2  =  IY  *  IGRD +  1
                 Kl  =  K2  -  IGRD
                 01  =  Y - IY
                 IQI  =  3
r-                GO  TO  8
              16  CONTINUE
                 IF  (Y  -JGRD)  18,17,17
              17  CONTINUE
r,                Kl  =  IX  -  IGRD > NG
f^                K2  =  Kl  +  1
                 01  =  X - IX
                 IQI  =  2
                 GO  TO  8

-------
              18  CONTINUE
                 IF (IY)  19,19»20
              19  CONTINUE
                 Kl = IX
                 K2 = Kl  + 1
                 Dl = X - IX
                 IQI  = 2
                 GO TO 8
              20  CONTINUE
             DETERMINE WHICH  TRIANGLE OF GRID POINTS WILL BE USED FOR INTERPOLATION
                 Dl = X - IX
                 D2 = Y - IY
                 Kl = IX  + ( IY - 1)  * IGRD
                 IF (Dl - D2)  200,100,100
             100  CONTINUE
                 K2 = Kl  + 1
                 K3 = K2  + IGRD
                 IQI  = 4
              50  CONTINUE
                 GO TO (60,52, 53) , IB
              52  CONTINUE
                 QA( 1) =  Q(K1)
                 QB(1) =  Q(K2)
                 QC( 1) =  Q(K3)
                 XI = IX  * DLTA
                 Yl = IY  * DLTA
                 GO TO 56
              53  CONTINUE
                 CALL QCOMB( IX, IY,QD)
                 QA( 1) =  QD
                 1X1  = IX + 1
                 IY1  = IY + 1
                 CALL QCOMB( 1X1, IY1,QD)
                 QC( 1) =  QD
                 XI = ( IX - 0.375)  * DLTA
                 Yl = ( IY - 0.375)  * DLTA
                 IF (IQI  - 4)  54,54,55
              54  CONTINUE
                 CALL QCOMB( 1X1, IY,QD)
                 QB( 1) =  QD
                 GO TO 56
              55  CONTINUE
                 CALL QCOMB( IX, IY1,QD)
                 QB( 1) =  QD
              56  CONTINUE
                 QA(2) =  QA( 1
                 QA(3) =  QA( 1
                 QB(2) =  QB( 1
                 QB(3) =  QB( 1
                 QC(2) =  QC( 1
                 QC(3) =  QC( 1
                 CALL ADDPOt I Q I , XI , Yl , QA, QB , QC )
                 DO 57 1=1,3
                 QX( J, 1C, I , IB) = QA(I) + D1*(QB(I)  - QA(I))  + D2*(QC(I)  - QB(I))
              57  CONTINUE
              60  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
             200  CONTINUE
                 K2 = Kl  + IGRD
                 K3 = K2  + 1
                 IQI  = 5
                 AAA  = Dl
                 Dl = 02
                 D2 = AAA
                 GO TO 50
                 END
C



-------
                 SUBROUTINE QCOMB(I X,IY,CD)
                 DIMENSION DISTX(200,3),XDCAY(600,3),SSIGZ(200,3),EXPOZ(600,3 )
                i,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),0(3600),QX(200,3,3,3),NQX(3,3)
                 COMMON/HAS I C/I PR TR, I STAR, IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE,XMAX,CCNX
                1,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY, DLTA , IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UHA
                1,  QXY,Q   ,CONC,NH1,QX,NQX
                 IF ( IX - 8)  20,10, 10
              10 CONTINUE
                 NX = 2
                 GO TO 30
              20 CONTINUE
                 NX = 4
              30 CONTINUE
                 IF (IY) 31,31,32
              31 CONTINUE
                 IY1 = 1
                 GO TO 33
              32 CONTINUE
                 IY1 = IY
              33 CONTINUE
                 IF (IX) 34,34,35
              34 CONTINUE
                 1X1 = 1
                 GO TO 36
              35 CONTINUE
                 1X1 = IX
              36 CONTINUE
                 Kl = 120 * (IY1- 1)  +  4  *(IX1- 1) -  30
                 QD = 0.
                 DO 50 J=l,4
                 Kl = Kl + 30
                 DO 40 1=1,NX
                 K  = Kl + I
                 QD = QD + Q(K)
              40 CONTINUE
              50 CONTINUE
                 QD = QD / (4.  * NX)
                 RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE  DISTC
           C  ROUTINE  TO  SET  DISTANCE DEPENDENT ARRAYS.
                 DIMENSION  DISTX(200,7),XDCAY(600,7),SSIGZ(200,7),EXPOZ(600,7)
                1,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),0(3600),QX(200,3,1,7),NQX(7,3)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,I SIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE,XMAX,CCN)
                I,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX.GY, DLJA,IND»SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/AREAS/NXI,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UHA
                1,  QXY,Q   ,CONC,NH1,QX,NQX
                 COMMON/WNDSP/WSPD,WHGT,PWIND
                 NXZLM  = 600
           C  SET ARRAYS  WHICH DE'PEND ON  DISTANCE  AND  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
           C  GET AREA SOURCE WIND SPEEDS  FOR EACH EMISSION HEIGHT
                 DO 40  IH=1,NH
                 UHA(IH) =WSPD*  (HA{IH)/WHGT)**PWIND
              40 CONTINUE

-------
                 DO 200 IB=1,7
                 NLI  =  NQX(IB,ICX)
           C  CHECK  THAT DIMENSION LIMIT NXZLM IS NOT EXCEEDED
                 NHLI=NH*NLI
                 IF (NHLI-NXZLM)  26,26,25
              25  CONTINUE
                 WRITE  (IPRTR,1004)NXZLM,NHLI
            1004  FORMAT!'   NH * NLI      EXCEEDS DIMENSION LIMIT OF1,16,',   NH,=',I
                16,',    NLI=',I6)
                 IERR  = 1
                 RETURN
              26  CONTINUE
           C  GET  TRAVEL DISTANCE  DECAY  FACTORS
                 IK =  0
                 DO 60  1=1,NLI
                 XI =  DISTX(I,IB)
                 DO 50  IH=1,NH
                 IK =  IK  +  1
                 IF (DECAY)  42,42,44
              42  CONTINUE
                 XDCAY(IK,IB)  = 1.
                 GO TO  46
              44  CONTINUE
                 XARG  = DECAY * XI  / UHAUH)
                 IF (XARG -  25.)  45,45,62
^             45  CONTINUE
                 XDCAY(IK,IB)  = EXP(-XARG)
              46  CONTINUE
f-             50  CONTINUE
t-             60  CONTINUE
                 GO TO  65
              62  CONTINUE
                 IL =  NH  *  NLI
V                DO 64  I=IK,IL
                 XDCAY(I,IB)  = 0.
              64  CONTINUE
              65  CONTINUE
                 NX I  =  NLI
           C  GET  SIGMAZ PARAMETERS
                 DO 130 1=1,NXI
                 XW =  DISTX(I,IB)
                 CALL  SIGZZ
                 IF (IERR)  67,68,67
              67  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
              68  CONTINUE
                 SSIGZ(I,IB)  = SIGZ
                 IF(SIGZ-CIGMX)70,140,140
              70  CONTINUE
             130  CONTINUE
                 KUTEX  =  NXI
                 GO TO  160
             140  CONTINUE
 ^                KUTEX  =  I
                 DO 150 J=I,NXI
                 SSIGZ(J,IB)  = CIGMX
r            150  CONTINUE
^            160  CONTINUE
             200  CONTINUE
                 RETURN

C                6ND



C






-------
                 SUBROUTINE  EXPZC
           C  ROUTINE  TO COMPUTE  VERTICAL DIFFUSION FACTOR INCLUDING EFFECTS OF
           C    DECAY  AND GROUND  REFLECTIONS FOR EACH OF NH SOURCE HEIGHTS.
           C  BASIC  EQUATION  IS
           C          EXPCZ  = ( XDCAY / SIGZ )*{EXP(-0.5*((HA-ZR)/SIGZ)**2) +
           C                                    EXP(-0.5*l(HA+ZR)/SIGZ)**2))
                 DIMENSION  DISTX(200,7),XDCAY(600,7),SSIGZ(200,7),EXPOZ(600,7)
                1,HA(5),UHA(5),QXY(5),0(3600),QX(200,3,1,7),NQX(7,3)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE,XMAX,CCNX
                1,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY, DLTA,IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/AREAS/NX I,NX,KUTEX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UHA
                It  OXY,Q   ,CONC,NH1,QX,NOX
           C  INPUTS
           C              ZR » RECEPTOR  HEIGHT
           C              NH = NUMBER  OF SOURCE HEIGHTS
           C              HA = ARRAY OF  SOURCE HEIGHTS
           C            CIGMX = MIXING  CEILING
           C            SSIGZ = VERTICAL  DIFFUSION  PARAMETER
           C  OUTPUT
           C            EXPOZ = VERTICAL  DIFFUSION  FACTOR
                 DO 100 IB=1,7
                 NXI  =  NQX(IB,ICX)
,                 K  =  0
(                 DO 60  J=1,NXI
                 G  =  2. *CIGMX/SSIGZ(J,IB)
                 DO 50  1=1,NH
f                 F  =  (HA( I )  - ZR) /SSIGZ(J,IB)
(                 IF (F*F -   50.) 12,12,10
              10  CONTINUE
                 El = 0
r-             11  CONTINUE
(>                E2 = 0
                 GO TO  15
              12  CONTINUE
                 El = EXP(-0.5 * F  * F)
1                 F  =  (HA(I)  + ZR) /SSIGZ(J,IB)
                 IF (F- 7.)  13,13,11
              13  CONTINUE
                 E2 = EXP(-0.5 * F  * F)
              15  CONTINUE

                 EXPOZ(K,IB) = ((El +  E2)      / SSIGZ(J,IB)) * XDCAY(K,IB)
              50  CONTINUE
              60  CONTINUE
                 NX = NX I
             100  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
                 END



                 SUBROUTINE  OUTSE
                 DIMENSION  CNCT(50),CAREA(50),CPOIN(50),XRR(50),YRR(50),ZRR(50)
                ltOBS02(50),OSET(12,5A)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE,XMAX,CCN)
                1,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY, DLTA,IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                2,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX
c                COMMON/OUTPUT/YEAR,AMON,DAY,HOUR  ,NRECP,CNCT,CAREA,CPOIN,XRR,YRR
                1.ZRR.OBS02,IDOWiNRl,TEMP,SIGA,RIBfPCPNtWGLDiSTAPRtOSET,INDO
                 DATA Jl/1/
                 WRITE(12)  (J,(OSET(I,J-J1+1),I=1,12),J=J1,INDO)
r                WRITE!IPRTR,1000)  J1,INDO
^           1000  FORMATC SETS',16,' TO',16,'  ENTERED  IN SENSITIVITY  OUTPUT FILE')
                 Jl = INDO  + 1
                 RETURN

c                ENO





-------
                 SUBROUTINE CONTRS{J, I 1, 12 )
                 DIMENSION DISTX(200,7),XDCAY(600,7),SSIGZ(200,7),EXPOZ(600,7 )
                1,HA(5),UHA(5) ,QXY(5),Q(3600),QX(200,3,1,7),NQX(7,3)
                 DIMENSION SXK5),       TERMA(5)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,1 ERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE,XMAX,CON>
                1,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,  DLTA,IND,SIGY,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS
                2,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN1XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMON/AREAS/NXI,NX,KUTtX,DISTX,XDCAY,SSIGZ,EXPOZ,   NH,HA,UNA
                1,  QXY,Q   ,CONC,NH1,QX,NQX
           C  CONST  = 1/(2*SQRT(2*PI))
                 DATA CONST/0.199471/
                 YW = 0.
                 NX = NQXl12,J)
                 DO 10 IH=1,NH
                 SXH IH) = 0
                 TERMA(IH) =  0
              10 CONTINUE
                 XWL = DISTXl1,12)
                 DO 110 1=1,NX
f                XW = DISTXt1,12)
(                 IF (NH - 1)  40,40,50
              40 CONTINUE
                 QXY(1)  = QX(I,J,II,12)
f.                GO TO 60
v             50 CONTINUE
                 QXY(2)  = 0.5  *  QX(I,J,I1,12)
                 OXY(1)  = 0.5  *  QXY(2)
                 OXY13)  = QXY(1)
<•>             60 CONTINUE
                 DO 90 IH=1,NH
                 K  = ( I  -1) *  NH  + IH
                 IF (QXY(IH)  -  l.E-50)  70,70,80
              70 CONTINUE
                 TERMB = 0.
                 GO TO 85
              80 CONTINUE
                 TERMB = QXY(IH)  * EXPOZ(K,I2)
              85 CONTINUE
                 SXKIH) = SXI(IH) + (TERMA(IH)  + TERMB) * (XW - XWL)
                 TERMAtIH) =  TERMB
              90 CONTINUE
             100 CONTINUE
                 XWL = XW
             110 CONTINUE
                 IX = NX + 1
                 IF (IX - NLI)  115,115,140
             115 CONTINUE
                 XW = DISTX(IX,12)
             120 CONTINUE
                 DO 130 IH=1,NH
                 SXKIH) = SXKIH) + TERMA(IH) *  ( XW - XWL)
,-            130 CONTINUE
             140 CONTINUE
                 CONC = 0
                 DO 150 IH=1,NH
f-                CONC = CONC  +  SXKIH)  /  UHA(IH)
c             150 CONTINUE
                 CONC = CONST  *  CONC
                 RETURN
,-                END





-------
                 Exhibit D-3

LISTING OF FORTRAN CODE SUBROUTINES USED WITH
   BOTH VALIDATION AND SENSITIVITY PROGRAMS

-------
                 SUBROUTINE POINT
           C       DUE TO EMISSIONS FROM SPECIFIED  POINT SOURCES
           C  BASIC EQUATION IS
           C          CONPI  =(Q/(2*PI*U*SIGY*SIGZ))*EXP(-0.5*(Y/SIGY)**2-DECAY*X/U )
           C                 *(EXP(-0.5*((Z-H)/SIGZ)**2)+EXP(-0.5((Z+H)/SIGZ)**2)))
           C              U  = WSPD*(ZP/WHGT)**PWIND
           C           SIGY  = HORIZONTAL DIFFUSION PARAMETER
           C           SIGZ  = VERTICAL DIFFUSION PARAMETER
           C              Y  = CROSSWIND DISTANCE BETWEEN SOURCE AND  RECEPTOR
           C              Z  = ZR
           C              H  = ZP
                 DIMENSION  XP (100),YP (100),ZP (100),QP(100)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 COMMQN/WNDSP/WSPD,WHGT,PWIND
                 COMMON/POINTS/NPS  ,XP ,YP ,ZP ,QP,CONPS,NPSS
           C  INPUTS
           C          XR,YR,ZR = RECEPTOR  LOCATION IN SOURCE GRID COORDINATES
           C                NPS = NUMBER OF POINT SOURCES
           C        XSSXP,YP,ZP = ARRAYS OF POINT SOURCE LOCATIONS IN SOURCE GRIDS
           C                 QP = POINT SOURCE  EMISSION RATE
           C               XONE = CLOSEST  DISTANCE TO RECEPTOR
           C              ISIGD = DIFFUSION PARAMETER OPTION
           C              DECAY = DECAY CONSTANT
           C               THTA = WIND DIRECTION
           C               WSPD = WIND SPEED AT HEIGHT WHGT
           C              PWIND = WIND PROFILE  PARAMETER
1           C              INDEX = DIFFUSION STABILITY PARAMETER
           C              CIGMX = MIXING CEILING
           C  OUTPUTS
           C               IERR = ERROR INDICATOR FROM SIGYZ ROUTINE
( ••          C              CONPS = CONCENTRATION AT RECEPTOR  FROM NPS POINT SCURCES
                 DATA PI/3.14159/
                 CONPS = 0
                 Nl = NPS - NPSS
v                 DO  50 I =N1,NPS
                 HH = ZP (I)
                 XS = XP (I)
                 YS = YP (I)
                 CALL WCORD
                 IFUW -XONE) 40,10,10
              10  CONTINUE
                 CALL SIGYZ
                 IF (IERR)  20,30,20
              20  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
              30  CONTINUE
                 IF (HH - 1.) 28,29,29
              28  CONTINUE
                 HH = 1.
              29  CONTINUE
                 U =  WSPD * (HH / WHGT)**PWIND
                 CONPI =QPlI)/(2*PI*U*SIGY*SIGZ)
                 FY = YW/SIGY
                 FY2  = FY * FY
                 IF (FY2 -50. ) 32,40,40
              32  CONTINUE
                 CONP2 = EXP(-0.5*FY2)
/              33  CONTINUE
r-                FZ1  = (ZR-HH)/SIGZ
                 FZ2  = (ZR+HHJ/SIGZ
                 IF(FZ1 * FZ1 -50.) 35,34,34
r             34  CONTINUE
^                CONP3 = 0
                 GO TO 36
              35  CONTINUE
/-                CONP3 = EXP(-0.5*FZ1*FZ1)





-------
              36 CONTINUE
                 IP (FZ2 -  7. )  38,37,37
              37 CONTINUE
                 CONP4 = 0
                 GO TO 39
              38 CONTINUE
                 CONP4 = EXP(-0.5*FZ2*FZ2)
              39 CONTINUE
                 IF (DECAY)  44,44,45
              44 CONTINUE
                 CONP6 = 1.
                 GO TO 46
              45 CONTINUE
                 AAA = DECAY*XW/U
                 IF (AAA - 25.)  48,40,40
              48 CONTINUE
                 CONP6 = EXP(-AAA)
              46 CONTINUE
                 CONP7 = CONP3 + CONP4
                 IF (CONP7 - l.E-10) 40,40,47
              47 CONTINUE
                 CONPI = CONP1*CONP2*CCNP7*CONP6
                 CONPS = CONPS + CONPI
              40 CONTINUE
              50 CONTINUE
                 RETURN
                 END
C-

                 SUBROUTINE SIGYZ
           C  ROUTINE  TO CALL SUBPROGRAM DESIGNATED BY ISIGD
                 COMMON/BASIC/I PRTR,I STAR,I ERR , I SI GD ,K'XL I M ,NXZLM , NL I , XONE
                1tXMAXtCONXtDECAYtINDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
           C          ISIGD = INDICATES OPTION  FOR DEFINING DIFFUSION PARAMETERS
           C                     1 = MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS USING TURNER STAB.
           C                     2 = MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS USING RICHARDSON NO.
           C                     3 = MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS USING BRCOKHAVEN STAE
           C                     4 = PASQUILL PARAMETERS USING TURNER STABILITY CAT.
           C          DECAY = DECAY  CONSTANT  (PER  SEC)
                 IERR = 0
                 GO TO  (   400,  500,  600,  700),ISIGD
             400 CONTINUE
                 CALL       SIGY1
                 CALL       SIGZ1
                 GO TO 800
             500 CONTINUE
                 CALL       SIGY2
                 CALL       SIGZ2
                 GO TO 800
r            600 CONTINUE
                 CALL       SIGY3
                 CALL       SIGZ3
                 GO TO 800
r            700 CONTINUE
(-                CALL       SIGY4
                 CALL       SIGZ4
             800 CONTINUE
r.                RETURN
^-                END



C




-------
c

c

o
                 SUBROUTINE SIGY1
           C  MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS BASED ON TURNER-PASQUILL STABILITY CATEGORY
           C  THE CALCUALTION USES A POWER LAW - A(INDEX)*X**P(INDEX)
           C  INPUTS-XW IS DISTANCE FROM SOURCE, INDEX IS STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C  RESTRICTION   XW MUST BE POSITIVE
           C  IF        RESTRICTION IS VIOLATED THE  CALCULATION IS NOT MADE AND
           C  MESSAGE IS RETURNED
                 DIMENSION A(5)fP(5)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,ISI GO,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XCNE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGNX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2fSIGZfXRtYRtZRfXSfYSfXNfYWfI CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
           C  VALUES OF A AND P ARE GIVEN  IN THE DATA STATEMENTS FOR  EACH ARRAY
                 DATA A/ 0., 1.42,1.26,1.13,0.992/
                 DATA P/0.f.7A5fO.73tO.71tO.65/
           C  TEST FOK RESTRICTION
                 IF (XW) 10,10,20
              10 CONTINUE
                 WRITE(IPRTR,15) XW
              15 FORMATdH ,'SUBROUTINE SIGY1 - BAD INPUT	 X =',F15.2)
                 I ERR = 1
                 RETURN
              20 CONTINUE
                 SIGY=A(INDEX)*XW**P(INDEX)
                 RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE SIGY2
           C  MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS BASED ON RICHARDSON NO.
           C  THE  CALCUALTION USES A POWER LAW - A(INDEX)*X**P(INDEX)
           C  INPUTS-XW IS DISTANCE FROM SOURCE, INDEX IS STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C           IERR = ERROR RETURN
           C  RESTRICTION   XW MUST BE POSITIVE
           C  IF         RESTRICTION IS VIOLATED THE  CALCULATION IS NOT MADE AND
           C  MESSAGE  IS RETURNED
                 DIMENSION A(5) t P{5)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 DATA A/1.49,1.4,1.26,1.14,0.945/
                 DATA P/.76 1,0.719,0.712,0.698,0.648/
           C  TEST FOR FIRST RESTRICTION
                 IF(XW      )5,5,10
               5  CONTINUE
                 WRITE( IPRTR, 15) XW  •
              15  FORMAT!1H ,'SUBROUTINE SIGY2 - BAD INPUT	 X =',F15.2)
                 IERR = 1
                 RETURN
                 S1GY=A(INDEX)*XW**P(INDEX)
                 RETURN

-------
                 SUBROUTINE SIGY3
           C  MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS BASED ON MODIFIED BROOKHAVEN STABILITY CAT.
           C  THE CALCUALTION USES A POWER LAW - A(INDEX)*X**P(INDEX)
           C  INPUTS-XW IS DISTANCE FROM SOURCE, INDEX IS STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C  RESTRICTION   XW MUST BE POSITIVE
           C  IF        RESTRICTION IS VIOLATED THE  CALCULATION IS NOT MADE AND
           C  MESSAGE IS RETURNED
                 DIMENSION A(4),P(4)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,1CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 DATA A/1.48425,1.74942,1.50373,1.39026/
                 DATA P /.73727,.68741,.66b52,.61474/
           C  TEST FOR FIRST RESTRICTION
                 IF (XW) 10,20,20
                 WRITE( IPRTR, 15) XW
              15 FORMAT!1H ,'SUBROUTINE SIGY3 - BAD INPUT	 X =',F15.2)
                 IERR = 1
                 RETURN
              20 CONTINUE
                 SIGY=A(INDEX)«XW**P(INDEX)
                 RETURN
                 END

                 SUBROUTINE SIGY4
           C  PASQUILL-GIFFCRD CALCULATION FOR SIGY
           C  THE CALCUALTION USES A POWER LAW - A(INDEX)*X**P
           C  INPUTS-XW IS DISTANCE FROM SOURCE, INDEX IS STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C  RESTRICTION   XW MUST BE POSITIVE
                 DIMENSION A(6)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 DATA A/.3658,.2751,.2089,.1474,.1046,.0722/
                 DATA P/  .9031/
           C  TEST FOR FIRST RESTRICTION
                 IF (XW) 10,10,20
              10 CONTINUE
                 WRITE(IPRTR,15) XW
              15 FORMATUH , 'SUBROUTINE SIGY4 - BAD INPUT	X =',F15.2)
                 IERR = 1
                 RETURN
              20 CONTINUE
                 SIGY=A(INDEX)*XW**P
                 RETURN
                 END


                 SUBROUTINE GCHEK
           C  ROUTINE TO DETERMINE IF  POINT X,Y IS OUTSIDE RECT. GRID AREA DEFINED
           C  BY DIAGONAL FROM 0.5*DELTA,0.5*DELTA TO  (GX+0.5)*DELTA,(GY+0.5)*DELTA
           C     IND=0 FOR ON GRID, IND=-i FOR OUTSIDE GRID
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
f                IF (XS- XSMAX)  10,50,50
              10 IF (YS- YSMAX)  20,50,50
              20 CONTINUE
                 IF (XS- XYMIN)  50,50,30
r             30 CONTINUE
'-                IF (YS- XYMIN)  50,50,40
              40 CONTINUE
                 IND = 0
r                RETURN
^             50 CONTINUE
                 IND = -1
                 RETURN

C                ENO




-------
                 SUBROUTINE SIGZZ
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,ISIGD,NXL1M,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 IERR = 0
                 GO TO  (  400,  500, 600, 700),ISIGD
             400 CONTINUE
                 CALL       SIGZ1
                 GO TO 800
             500 CONTINUE
                 CALL       SIGZ2
                 GO TO 800
             600 CONTINUE
                 CALL       SIGZ3
                 GO TO 800
             700 CONTINUE
                 CALL       SIGZA
             800 CONTINUE
                 RETURN
                 END
c.
                 SUBROUTINE SIGZ1
           C  MCELROY-POOLER PARAMETERS BASED ON TURNER-PASQUILL STABILITY CATEGORY
           C  THE  CALCUALTION USES A POWER LAW - A(INDEX)*X**P(INDEX)
           C  INPUTS-XW IS DISTANCE FROM SOURCE, INDEX IS STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C           IERR = ERROR RETURN
           C  RESTRICTION  - INDEX MUST BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5
           C  IF         RESTRICTION IS VIOLATED AN ERROR MESSAGE IS RETURNED
                 DIMENSION A(5,2)»P(5.2)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,OLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 DATA A/ 0.,.0926,0.0891,0.0835,0.0777,0.0,0.072,0.169,1.07,1.0 I/
                 DATA P/.0,1.18,1.11,1.08,0.955,0.0,1.22,1.01,0.682,0.554/
                 IF (ISTAR) 90,5,90
              5  CONTINUE
r-          C  TEST FOR RESTRICTION
              20  CONTINUE
                 IF (5-INDEX) 30,50,50
              30  CONTINUE
r                WRITEtIPRTR,35)  INDEX
(-*             35  FORMATUH ,'SUBROUTINE SIGZ1 - BAD INPUT	INDEX =',IA)
                 IERR =  1
                 RETURN
x-s             50  CONTINUE
C                IFUNDEX-2) 30,60,60



o



o

-------
              60  CONTINUE
                 IF(CIGMX)70,70,80
              70  CONTINUE
                 WRITE  (IPRTR.1000)  CIGMX
            1000  FORMAT  ('  PARAMETER OUT OF  RANGE ,C I GMX= ' , F8 . 1 )
                 IERR =  1
                 RETURN
              80  CONTINUE
             XI DEFINES  DISTANCE  FOR WHICH  SIGMAZ  = 0.5*MIXING CEILING
                 DO  82 J=l,2
                 B = A( INDEX, J)
                 Q = P( INDEXi J)
                 XI  = (CIGMX  /  (2.  * B))**(l.  /  Q)
                 IF  (XI  -  600. ) 83,83,82
              82  CONTINUE
              83  CONTINUE
             X2 DEFINES  DISTANCE  FOR WHICH  SIGMAZ  = MIXING  CEILING
                 DO  85 J=l,2
                 B = A(INDEX,J)
                 Q = P( INDEX, J)
                 X2  = (CIGMX/B)**( l./Q)
                 IF  (X2  -  600. ) 85,85,84
              84  CONTINUE
              85  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
              90  CONTINUE
                 IF(XW-Xl) 100,200,200
             X LESS  THAN XI,  NO MODIFICATION
             100  CONTINUE
             DETERMINE WHICH  RANGE  XW IS IN
                 IF  (XW  -  600. ) 110,110,120
             110  CONTINUE
             FIRST RANGE
                 J = 1
                 GO  TO  130
             120  CONTINUE
             SECOND  RANGE
                 J = 2
             130  CONTINUE
                 B = At INDEX, J)
                 0 = P( INDEX, J)
                 SIGZ =  B  *XW**Q
                 RETURN
             200  CONTINUE
                 IF  (XW  -  X2)   300,400,400
             X BETWEEN XI  AND X2
             300  CONTINUE
                 SIGZ =  0.5 * CIGMX  * (XW +  X2 - 2.*X1)/(X2 -  XI)
                 RETURN
             X GREATER THAN X2
             400  CONTINUE
                 SIGZ= CIGMX
                 RETURN
                 END
C

C


-------
                 SUBROUTINE  SIGZ2
           C  MCELROY-POOLER  PARAMETERS BASED ON  RICHARDSON NO.
           C  THE  CALCUALTION USES  A  POWER LAW -  A( I NDEX)*X**P(INDEX)
           C  INPUTS-XW  IS  DISTANCE FROM SOURCE,  INDEX IS  STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C           IERR = ERROR RETURN
           C  RESTRICTION     INDEX  MUST BE BETWEEN 1  AND 5
                 DIMENSION A(5,2)fP(5,2)fC(5)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,I SIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 DATA  A/2*.118,0.115,0.11,0.0954,2*0.00724,0.0581tO.llfO.478/
                 DATA  P/2*1.02,1.,0.934,0.907,2*1.51,1.12,0.934,0.655/
                 DATA  C/3*300.,10000.,600./
                 IF  (ISTAR)  90,5,90
               5  CONTINUE
           C  TEST FOR  RESTRICTION
                 IF  (5-INDEX) 30,50,50
              30  CONTINUE
                 WRITE(IPRTR.35)  INDEX
              35  FORMATtlH ,'SUBROUTINE SIGZ2 -  BAD  INPUT	 INDEX =',I4)
                 IERR  =  1
                 RETURN
              50  CONTINUE
                 IFUNDEX-1) 30,60,60
              60  CONTINUE
                 IF(CIGMX)70,70,80
              70  CONTINUE
                 WRITE  UPRTR,1000)  CIGMX
            1000  FORMAT  (' PARAMETER OUT  OF  RANGE,CIGMX=',F8.1)
                 IERR  =  1
                 RETURN
              80  CONTINUE
           C  XI  DEFINES  DISTANCE  FOR WHICH  SIGMAZ =  0.5*MIXING  CEILING
                 DO  82  J=l,2
                 B = A( INDEX,J)
                 Q = P( INDEX,J)
                 XI  =  (CIGMX /  (2. * B))**(!. /  Q)
                 IF  (XI  -  C( INDEX) )  83,83,82
              82  CONTINUE
              83  CONTINUE
           C  X2  DEFINES  DISTANCE  FOR WHICH  SIGMAZ =  MIXING CEILING
                 DO  85  J=l,2
                 B = A(INDEX,J)
                 Q = P(INDEX,J)
                 X2  =  (CIGMX/B)**(l./Q)
                 IF  (X2  -  600.)  85,85,84
              84  CONTINUE
              85  CONTINUE
                 RETURN
              90  CONTINUE
                 IF(XW-Xl)100,200,200
           C  X LESS  THAN XI, NO  MODIFICATION
             100  CONTINUE
           C  DETERMINE  WHICH RANGE XW  IS  IN
                 IF  (XW  -  C(INDEX))  110,110,120
             110  CONTINUE
           C  FIRST RANGE
                 J = 1
                 GO  TO  130
             120  CONTINUE
           C  SECOND  RANGE
                 J = 2
             130  CONTINUE
                 B = A(INDEX,J) '
                 0 = P(INDEX,J)
                 SIGZ  =  B  *XW**Q
                 RETURN
             200  CONTINUE


-------
                 IF  (XW  - X2)    300,400,400
           C  X  BETWEEN  XI AND  X2
             300  CONTINUE
                 SIGZ  =  0.5 *  CIGMX * (XW + X2 - 2.*X1)/(X2 - XI)
                 RETURN
           C  X  GREATER  THAN X2
             400  CONTINUE
                 S1GZ =  CIGMX
                 RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE  SIG23
           C  MCELROY-POOLER  PARAMETERS BASED ON MODIFIED BROOKHAVEN STABILITY CAT.
           C  THE  CALCUALTION USES A POWER LAW - A(INDEX)*X**P(INDEX)
           C  INPUTS-XW  IS DISTANCE FROM SOURCE, INDEX IS STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C  RESTRICTION    INDEX MUST BE BETWEEN 1 AND 4
           C  IF  EITHER  RESTRICTION IS VIOLATED THE  CALCULATION IS NOT MADE AND
           C  MESSAGE  IS RETURNED
                 DIMENSION A(4),P(4)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,ISTAR,IERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,C1GMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 DATA A/.04952,.00837,.11285,.52039/
                 DATA P/l. 14047,1.48884,.9332,.646727
                 IF  (ISTAR)  90,5,90
               5  CONTINUE
           C  TEST FOR RESTRICTION
                 IF  (4-INDEX)  30,50,50
1              30  CONTINUE
                 WRITE(IPRTR,35) INDEX
              35  FORMATUH ,'SUBROUTINE SIGZ3 - BAD INPUT	INDEX =',I4)
                 IERR = 1
                 RETURN
              50  CONTINUE
                 IF  (INDEX-1)  30,60,60
              60  CONTINUE
                 IF(CIGMX)70,70,80
              70  CONTINUE
                 WRITE  (IPRTR.IOOO) CIGMX
            1000  FORMAT (' PARAMETER  OUT OF RANGE,CIGMX=',F8.1)
                 IERR = 1
                 RETURN
              80  CONTINUE
                 B=A(INDEX)
                 Q=P(INDEX)
           C  XI  DEFINES DISTANCE FOR  WHICH SIGMAZ = 0.5*MIXING  CEILING
                 RETURN
              90  CONTINUE
                 IF(XW-Xl)100,200,200
           C  X LESS  THAN XI, NO  MODIFICATION
             100  CONTINUE
f                 SIGZ = B *XW**Q
                 RETURN
             200  CONTINUE
                 IF  (XW - X2)    300,400,400
f           C  X BETWEEN  XI AND  X2
(             300  CONTINUE
                 SIGZ = 0.5  *  CIGMX * (XW + X2 - 2.*X1)/(X2 - XI)
                 RETURN
C           C  X GREATER  THAN  X2  •
*--            400  CONTINUE
                 SIGZ=  CIGMX
                 RETURN

C                END




-------
                 SUBROUTINE SIGZ4
           C PASQUILL-GIFFORD CALCULATION FOR SIGZ
           C THIS CALCULATION USES A POWER LAW - A*X**P
           C INPUTS-XW IS DISTANCE FROM SOURCE, INDEX IS STABILITY CLASS NUMBER
           C RESTRICTION    INDEX MUST BE BETWEEN 1 AND 5
                 DIMENSION A(5,3),P(5,3),C(5,2)
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,I CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 DATA A/.125,0.119,0.111,0.105,0.1,0.00883,0.0579,0.111,0.392,0.372
                1,0.000226,0.0579,0.111,.948,2.867
                 DATA P/1.03,0.986,0.911,0.827,0.778,1.51,1.09,0.911,0.636,0.587
                1,2.1, 1.09,0.911,0.540,0.3667
                 DATA C/250.,4*1000.,500.,4*10000.7
                 IF(  ISTAR  )  84,5,84
               5 CONTINUE
           C  TEST FOR RESTRICTION
                 IF(5-INDEX)  30,50,50
              30 CONTINUE
                 WRITE( IPRTR.35)  INDEX
              35 FORMAT  ( 1H , 'SUBROUTINE SIGZ4 - BAD INPUT ------ INDEX =«,I4)
                 IERR =  1
              40 RETURN
              50 CONTINUE
                 IF(INDEX-l)  30,60,60
              60 CONTINUE
                 IF(CIGMX)70,70,80
              70 CONTINUE
                 WRITE (IPRTR.IOOO)  CIGMX
            1000 FORMAT  ('  PARAMETER OUT OF RANGE , CIGMX= ', F8 . 1 )
                 IERR =  1
f-                RETURN
(;             80 CONTINUE
           C  XI DEFINES  DISTANCE  FOR WHICH SIGMAZ = 0.5*MIXING CEILING
                 DO 82 J=l,3
                 B=A(INDEX,J)
11                 Q=P(INDEX,J)
                 XI = (CIGMX/(2.*B) )**(!. /Q)
                 IF ( J  - 3)  81,81,83
              81 CONTINUE
v.                IF (XI  - C(INOEXfJ))  83,83,82
              82 CONTINUE
              83 CONTINUE
           C  X2 DEFINES  DISTANCE  FOR WHICH SIGMAZ = MIXING CEILING
                 DO 92 J=l,3
                 B=A( INDEX, J)
                 0=P( INDEX, J)
                 X2 = (CIGMX/B)**( l./Q)
                 IF (J - 3) 91,91,93
              91 CONTINUE
                 IF (X2  - CUNDEXfJM 93,93,92
              92 CONTINUE
              93 CONTINUE
                 RETURN
              84 CONTINUE
                 IF (XW  - XI)  86,200,200
^          C  XW LESS THAN XI,  NO  MODIFICATION
           C  DETERMINE WHICH  RANGE  X IS  IN
              86 CONTINUE
r-                IF (XW  - C(INDEXtJ)) 85,85,90
^             85 CONTINUE
           C  J=l INDICATES  THAT  X IS IN  THE FIRST RANGE
                 J = l
n                GO TO 120
O             90 IF (XW  - C(INDEX,J)J 100,110,110
             100 CONTINUE
           C  J=2 INDICATES  THAT  X IS IN  THE SECOND  RANGE

c                J=2

-------
                 GO TO 120
             110 CONTINUE
             J=3 INDICATES THAT X IS IN THE THIRD RANGE
                 J = 3
             120 CONTINUE
                 SIGZ= A( INDEX,J)*XW**P(INDEX,J)
                 RETURN
             200 CONTINUE
                 IF (XW - X2)    300,400,AGO
             X  BETWEEN XI AND  X2
             300 CONTINUE
                 SIGZ  = 0.5 *  CIGMX * (XW + X2 - 2**X1)/(X2 - XI)
                 RETURN
             X  GREATER THAN X2
             400 CONTINUE
                 SIGZ= CIGMX
                 RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE SCORD
                 COMMON/BASIC/IPRTR,I STAR,I ERR,ISIGD,NXLIM,NXZLM,NLI,XONE
                1,XMAX,CONX,DECAY,INDEX,THTA,CIGMX,GX,GY,DLTA,IND,SIGY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,1CARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSMAX
                 IF  (ISTAR) 20,10,20
              10 CONTINUE
                 ALPH=3.14159/2.- THTA
                 COSA  = COS(ALPH)
                 SINA  = SIN(ALPH)
                 RETURN
              20 CONTINUE
                 XS  =  XR  + XW *  COSA  - YW *  SINA
                 YS  =  YR  + XW *  SINA  + YW *  COSA
                 RETURN
                 END
                 SUBROUTINE  WCORD
           C  THIS ROUTINE  CONVERTS GRID COORDINATES ON STANDARD GRID REF. SYSTEM TC
           C  COORDINATES  IN  A SYSTEM WITH THE X AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE WIND.
           C  THTA IS  WIND  DIRECTION ALPHA IS THE ANGLE OF ROTATION FROM STANDARD
           C    TO WIND  ORIENTED SYSTEM
                 COMMON/ BASIC/ I PRTR, ISTAR, I ERR, I S I GD , NXL I M , NXZLM , NL I , XONE
                It XM AX, CONX, DECAY, INDEX, THTA , C IGMX ,GX ,GY , DLTA , I ND , S I GY
                2,SIGZ,XR,YR,ZR,XS,YS,XW,YW,ICARD,ICX,XYMIN,XSMAX,YSKAX
                 IF  (ISTAR)  20,10,20
              10 CONTINUE
                 ALPHA=3. 14159/2.- THTA
                 COSA =  COS  (ALPHA)
                 SINA =  SIN  (ALPHA)
                 RETURN
              20 CONTINUE
                 XP1  =  (XS-XR)*COSA
                 XP2  =  (YS-YR)*SINA
                 XW  = XP1  +  XP2
                 YP1  =(YS-YR)*CO'SA
                 YP2  =(XS-XR)*SINA
                 YW   =   YP1  - YP2
                 RETURN
                 END

-------
             Appendix E




-------
                              Appendix E
                 SAMPLES OF VALIDATION DATA LISTINGS
             *
          This appendix describes and presents  samples  of the punched
cards and computer printouts which were generated in the course  of this
study and which were reviewed to determine results and  findings.   Since
the total set of all pages of computer printouts  consists of several
thousand pages, only samples of each type of printout are reproduced
here.
          Two input data records were formed for  each hour of validation
data.  These data records are stored on magnetic  tape and may be loaded
into disk files for convenient retrieval.  An example of the information
contained in each record is shown by Figures E-l  and E-2.  Figure E-l
lists meteorological parameters, time and date  information, sampler
observations, and point source emission information which are available
in one hourly input record.  A description of the computer printout iden-
tifications shown in the figure is given in Table E-l.   Figure E-2 is
a map of hourly area source emission rates obtained from the second type
of hourly input record.  These figures are samples of the computer print-
outs generated to review input data for each hour of validation  data.
          Figures E-3 and E-4 are samples of the  map printed for each
short-term (two-hour for St. Louis, one-hour for  Chicago) validation
period.   The X's show the relation of sampler locations  relative to one
another.  The upper printed number by each X is the observed value, and
the lower printed number is the predicted value.   Stars  designate missing
values.   The principal  meteorological inputs are  also shown.

-------
I
ro

YFAP
64.
ORS
OBS
ORS
DBS
OP
OP
ZP
QP
ZP
OP
ZP
QP
ZP
OP
ZP
:. in OHM TF
214. 4 34
AMCN nAY HOUR
12. 2. 14.
381.^00 ?22
129.0^0 30
84.000 R]
150.000 23
2 °3 .000 oqqo
I
0.806F+02 0.2
'+0.00
11
0 . 1 5 2 F + 03 0.3
1^2.23
21
0.203F+02 0.3
31
1^7.20
0.3c3F+~3 0.5
106.87
o.^;
MP SIGA
NPFCP GV
«?0 30.
.000 126
.000 100
.000 22
.000 97
.000 '4 1 0
2
78E+03 0.
238.03
12
34P+02 0.
22
05F4-03 0.
125.00
32
10F+03 0.
55.00
42
29E+03 0.
122.21

R I n
GY HPLTA
40. 1^24.
.000 IS?.
.000 110.
.000 6.
.000 29.
.000 10.
3
31RE+0? 0.
40.00
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172F+02 0.
40.00
23
61 OF. +02 0.
55.00
33
5^.00
706F+03 0.
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prpM WGUST
2.00 0.
MM MRPMT
3 51
000 174
000 173
000 34
000 236
4
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111.34
14
764E+02
40.00
24
123F+03
73.38
34
217E+02
75.QO
44
268F+04
328.06

USPn
^.70
.000
.000
,000
,000
5
0. 173F
40
15
0.645F
40
PRFSS
27.74
20.8
114,000
174.000
lo.OOO
999.000
°°99.000
+02 0.1
.00
+01 0.1
.00
25
0.166F+02 0.1
75.00
35
0.184C
79
45
0.682F
257

+03 0.5
.10
+03 0.6
.16

40
WIND
0.128
362
290
2^9
9990
6
79E+03
101.15
16
72E+02
49.00
26
32F+03
97.25
36
59F+03
210.12
46
82F+03
?57.16



THTA 1NOFX
1.500 4
.000
.0^0
.000
.000
.000
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.

116.
101.
40.
00.
7
323E+02
40.00
17
173E+02
19.00
27
163E+C3
90.31
37
586F+03
300.80
128F+04
399.66



CIGMX
441. 	
000
000
000
COO
000
0
0
0
0
0

. .104.000.
' 090.000
194.000
72.000
_999Q.OOO
. . 9
.476F+03
. 146.30
is
.142E+02
47.00.
28
,144=+02
55.00
38
.25&-+02
75.00.
48
.167E+04
463.70


-------
        ST. LOUIS AREA SOURCE  EMISSION  RATES
0 -
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
5 -
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
0
01 +
03 +
10 +
30+
00 +
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
3.
01
03
10
30
00
00
6 -
7 -
8 -
9 -
115.
3.
10.
30.
OVER

00 +
00 +
00 +
100

TO
TO
TO
.00

10.
30.
100.

00
00
00

                    1
           123456789012345678901234567890
         1 344444444233303333344444444444
         2 334444444323333343344444444444
         3 334444444342333333455434440444
         4 34444444^444244455555444444444
         5 333444444344300055554444444444
         6 333444454444425555554444444444
         7 333344334444430055444445644444
         8 333333444444430555444444434444
         9 333333444444433344444444444044
        10 333333444445532045444344444455
        11 333344444455652006444444444357
        12 444444454555575445444444444476
        13 454434655556677254544444444677
        14 466434665666767704555554445667
        15 444455656656767860555465448555
        16 444456656666677875452666565555
        17 4444666576767778B8447865777555
        18 334444356777778888878887555555
        19 434444336777777888768987755555
        20 4444 5555567765889885 6~8 57755555
        21 333345444677888988764556655477
        22 433345454567888888776520555467
        23 834334555666688888677644444435
        24 333344566566677865267644044344
        25 333345667776677760067864444044
        26 3333~55666666667770026664444044
        27 233355665777556566004544444434
        28 203355565576665547304444544444
        29 320123365456655543443455554444
        30 570234444556554444450455550444
        31 676445554335444455430044444444
        32 255044444434444444440024444444
        33 332204233433344444400021044444
        34 033220203333333333000006603224
        35 333322333233333332220022611333
        36 223332232233332233330223600333
        37 333333333300023333222326754333
        38 33333-3333300033332577767553333
        39 033332323333333323787862462444
        40 022333223332330224766680665533

Figure E-2.  Sample Map of Hourly Area Source  Emission Rates


-------
    Table E-l.   Description  of Computer Printout  Identifications
Identification
                    Description
   REC.  ID
   DOW
   TEMP
   SIGA
   RIB
   PCPN
   WCUST
   PRESS
   NRI
   AMON
   DAY
   NRECP
   GX
   GY
   DELTA
   NH
   NRPNT
   USPD
   UHGT
   PWIND
   THTA
   INDEX
   CIGMX
   OBS

   QP
   ZP
Record identification number
Day of the week
Ambient air temperature (°F)
Standard deviation in horizontal  wind direction
Bulk Richardson number
Precipitation in 0.01 in/hr
Peak wind gust, knots
Atmospheric pressure, in Hg
= 40, number of 24-hour samplers
Month of the year
Day of the month
= 50, number of 24-hour and 2-hour samplers
Number of East-West coordinates in area source grid
Number of North-South coordinates in area source grid
Spacing between area source grid  points, m
= 3, number of area source heights
Number of point sources
Wind speed at height UHGT, m/sec
Reference height for wind speed,  m
Wind profile exponent
Wind direction, radians from North
Stability class for diffusion parameters
Mixing ceiling, m
                                o
Observed SOp concentration, yg/m   (first 40 are 24-
  hour average, last 10 are 2-hour average)
Point source emission rate, g/sec
Effective point source height, m

-------
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                                        *
                                        *»-
                                        ^»

                                        *

                                        *

                                        *

                                        *

                                        *

                                        *

                                        *
                                        J,
                                        1*

                                        *

                                        *
                                                                               *
                                                                               *
                                                                               *
                                    r * # * =Jc #$$ * $ **** t- *** * *********************
                                           HOI)!? 5,
           '-iP'JD nmrCTICN (OFGPEES)
           WIND SPEFT      (M/SEC  )
           S T A P I L ! T Y C L \ S S
           Tf^PFRATURE     (HEG.F    )
           MlX.rFU.lNG     (METERS)
           PKrflPITATION
        -34. A
          2.8
          5
         13.0
        352.0
          C.O
                                                         HOUR 6 .

                                                              -45.8

                                                                5
                                                               13.0
                                                              352.0
                                                                O.C
              Figure E-3.  Sample Computer Generated Map Used to
                     Review St. Louis  Validation Results

-------
*
*
*
*
*
*
                 « * ft A -|: * -;t .-^ ft * *•
                 x"   "oV^i" •>
                      C . I H 1
                                      * * * * * * * * *
                                      X *******
                                 0.7X0
                                 0 . S 4 7
                                    n. 6 M
             1,1 T ' I ri  p y 'J -r r- T J p N'  J • ) f. f; n p r (
             WT'-jH  C.TCP-,       f 1/C)cr )
             S"r/\n 11 i TY  <~\ ACC
             T F •' P r i? ^ T ij ^ P      ( T P r,, F-)
             M| Y .r n] ,  y»|-      ( MCTfiot;
             P'?-f j o f TATf PN
"!. r
  Figure  E-4.  Sample  Computer Generated Map  Used to
           Review Chicago Validation Results

-------
          Figure E-5 is an example of the statistical  summary of valida-
tion results for a single Chicago station (90 and 100  percent values  of
the frequency distribution are not shown in this example although they
are included in complete computer printout).   Similar  summaries  were
generated for each observing location and for all stations  combined.
Summaries were generated for the entire validation period and for
selected subsets of the period, e.g., all hours for which the wind
speed had some specified range.
          The validation results are also available on punched cards.
The format for the punched card data is listed in Table E-2.

-------
I
00


STATIST
BEGINNI
ENDING
ICAL SUMMARY FOR 1 STATIONS
NG DATE 67. 1. 1. 0.
DATE 67. 1. 31. 23.



NUMBER
OF CASES
OBSERVED 673
PREDICTED 673
DRSRVD-PRtDICTED 673
STATION

SUM
0.22119E 02
0.48279E 02
-0.26162E 02
INDEX NUMBERS USED IN THIS RUN ARE
1
SUM OF STANDARD MEAN ABSOLUTE
SQUARES MEAN DEVIATION DIFFERENCE
0.29168E 01 0.32866E-01 0.57085E-01
0.14854E 03 0.71737E-01 0.46465E 00
0.14405E 03 -0.38874E-01 0.46135E 00 0.62249E-01


SLOPE
INTERCEPT
REGRESSI
B(
B(
ON COEFFICIENTS
1)= 0.0146
0)= 0.0318



DECILE 0
OBSERVED 0.0
PREDICTED 0.000
10 20
0.0 0.
0.005 0.
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION BY DECILES
30 40 50 60 70 80
0 0.0 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.030 0.050
007 0.009 0.012 0.014 0.017 0.027 0.042
OBSERVED
MINUS
PREDICTED -10.913
-0.049 -0.
027 -0.015 -0.011 -0.007 -0.004 0.000 0.011

-------
Table E-2.  Punch Card Format for Validation Data
I. Format for St. Louis Validation Data at 10 Stations
Card
1








2















Columns
1-8
9-10
11-12
13-52

53-76


77-79
80
1-8
9-24


25-28
29-32
33-36
37-40
41
42-45
46-50
51-55
56-62
63-66
67-70
72-75
77-79
80
Format*
18
12
12
1014

614


3X
11
18
414


F4.1
F4.1
F4.3
F4.2
11
F4.1
15
F5.1
F7.3
F4.2
F4.1
F5.2
4X
11
Units
None
None
None
pg/m

ug/m


None
None
None
yg/m3


m/sec
m
None
Radians
None
°F
m
"Azimuth
None
0.01
in/hr
knots
in Hg
None
None
Description
Output record index number
Day of the week
= 10
Observed concentrations for stations
3, 15, 17, 23, 33, 4, 10, 12, 28
and 36, respectively
Calculated concentrations for sta-
tions 3, 15, 17, 23, 33 and 4,
respectively
Blank
= 1
Output record index number
Calculated concentrations for sta-
tions 10, 12, 28 and 36, respec-
tively
Wind speed for reference height
Wind speed for reference height
Wind profile exponent
Wind direction
Stability class index
Air temperature
Mixing layer ceiling
Wind turbulence statistics (a,)
Bulk Richardson number
Precipitation rate
Peak wind gust
Atmospheric pressure
Blank
= 2
                                               (Continued)

-------
Table E-2.  Punch Card Format for Validation Data (Concluded)
II. Format for Chicago Validation Data at 8 Stations
Card
1







2


Columns
1-10
11
12
13-44

45-76

77-80
1-8
9-24
25-80
Format*

IX
11
814

814



16X

Units

None
None
mg/m

mg/m



None

Description
See Part I above
Blank
= 8
Observed concentrations for stations
1 to 8, respectively
Calculated concentrations for sta-
tions 1 to 8, respectively
See Part I above
See Part I above
Blank
See Part I above
*Standard FORTRAN code notation.

-------
             Appendix F




-------
                              Appendix F
                 SAMPLES OF SENSITIVITY DATA LISTINGS

          This appendix describes and presents samples of the computer
printouts which were generated to permit review of the sensitivity
results.  The total set of all printed results consists of several
hundred pages.  Only samples of each type of printout are reproduced
here.
          An output record was generated for each set of input values
considered in the sensitivity analysis.  A listing of the concentrations
and input values for each of 5832 records was made in the format shown
in Figure F-l.  A description of the computer printout identification
in Figure F-l is given in Table F-l.  The sensitivity output records
were stored in disk files for subsequent statistical  analysis and tabu-
lation of results.
          One type of summary which was generated is  illustrated in
Figure F-2.  The mean concentration of all records with a given input
value was determined.  The results in Figure F-2 are  for the entire set
of sensitivity results.  Similar summaries were generated from selected
subsets of the total set of results in order to evaluate special sensi-
tivity considerations.
          Another type of listing which provides a convenient review of
model sensitivity results is illustrated in Figure F-3.  This figure is
a partial listing of all comparisons of calculated concentrations in
which the only input changed is the mixing ceiling.  Similar listings
were generated for all inputs considered in the sensitivity analysis.

-------
A quick review of this type of printout easily identifies  the combina-
tions of input values (if any) for which "sensitive"  results  are  generated
with input parameter.
          A specialized type of summary was  generated to examine  the
effects of changes in wind direction input.   An example of this special-
ized printout is given in Figure F-4.

-------
       INDO TOT. CONC.
ISIGD
INDEX
CIGMX
PWIND
WSPD    DECAY
NH
DLTA    NPS  RECEPTOR
-n
co
1
2 '"
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
' 20.
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
0.291E+02
0.304E+04
0.109E+03
0.291E+02
0.122E+05
0.106E+03
0.291E+02
0.462E+05
0.106E+03
0.360E+02
0.321E+04
0.127E+03
0.360E+02
0.485E + 0-4
0.124E+03
0.360E+02
0.868E+04
0.124E+03
0.420E+Q2
0.302E+04
0.191E+03
0.433E+02
0.358E+04
0.190E+03
0.433E+02
0.244E+04
0.190E+03
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
0.150
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
381.
381.
381.
381.
381.
381.
381.
381.
381.
1524.
1524.
1524.
1524.
1524.
1524.
1524.
1524.
1524.
6096.
6096.
6096.
6096.
6096.
6096.
6096.
6096.
6096.
51
51
51
19
19
19
0
0
0
51
51
51
19
19
19
0
0
0
51
51
51
19
19
19
22366.
25146.
30707.
22366.
25146.
30707.
22366.
25146.
30707.
22366.
25146.
30707.
22366.
25146.
30707.
22366.
25146.
30707.
22366.
_^5_146.__
30707.
22366.
25146.
30707.
0 22366.
0 25146.
0
30707.

-------
    Table F-l.   Description  of Computer  Printout  Identifications
Identification
                     Description
   INDO
   TOT. CONC.
   ISIGD
   INDEX
   CIGMX
   PWIND
   WSPD
   DECAY
   NH
   DLTA
   NPS
   RECEPTOR
Output record index number
                                                   3
Calculated concentration at receptor location,  yg/m
Index to designate system of diffusion parameters  used
Stability index for diffusion parameters
Mixing ceiling, m
Wind profile exponent
Wind speed at reference height,  m/sec
Decay constant (inverse of mean  decay time),  sec
Number of area source heights
Spacing between area source grid points, m
Number of point sources
East-West coordinate of receptor location, m

-------
PARAMETER
VALUE    MEAN CONCENTRATION
RECEPTOR LOCATION (M.,EAST)
RECEPTOR LOCATION (M.,EAST)
RECEPTOR LOCATION (M.,EAST)
NO. OF PUINT SOURCES
MO. OF POINT SOURCES
NO. OF POINT SOURCES
AREA SOURCE GRID SPACING (M.)
AREA SOURCE GRID SPACING (M.)
AREA SOURCE GRID SPACING (M.)
NO. AREA SOURCE EMISSION HGTS
DECAY CONSTANT
DECAY CONSTANT
WIND SPEED (M/SEC)
WIND SPEED (M/SEC)
WIND SPEED (M/SEC)
WIND PROFILE PARAMETER
MIXING CEILING (M.)
MIXING CEILING (M. )
DIFFUSION FUNCTIONS (TYPE)
DIFFUSION FUNCTIONS (TYPE)
DIFFUSION FUNCTIONS (TYPE)
0.2237E+05
0.2515E+05
0.3071E+05
0.5100E+02
0.1900E+02
0.0
0.3810E+03
0.1524E+04
0.6096E+04
0.1000E+01
0.0
0.3851E-03
0.2000E+01
0.6000E+01
0.1800E+02
0.1500E+00
0.1000E+03
0.5000E+03
0.4000E+01
0.1000E+01
0.2000E+01
0.6002E+01
0.3856E+03
0.3962E+03
0.2371E+03
0.2616E+03
0.2891E+03
0.2769E+03
0.2735E+03
0.2373E+03
0.2626E+03
0.3921E+03
0.1331E+03
0.5112E+03
0.1983E+03
0.7831E+02
0.2626E+03
0.3455E+03
0.1797E+03
0.3520E+03
0.2188E+03
0.2169E+03
     Figure F-2.  Summary of Sensitivity Results by Input Parameter

-------
                  CO N C E.NJ.RA LION S_EOR	
                                       M.
I
CT>
DIFFUS.
FN.
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
MIXING
100
11.
1259.
2061.
11.
1259.
1849.
11.
1259.
1750.
15.
1211.
1987.
15.
1238.
2811.
15.
1238."
2711.
25.
829.
1402.
48.
1205.
1738..
48.
1929.
2621.
7.
1146.
41.
7.
1146.
39.
7.
1146.
35.
9.
785.
36.
CEILH
500
12.
1635.
1526.
12.
JLfclSj.
1376.
12.
1635.
132 1 .
15.
_12iZ*
1469.
.15..
1239.
_2124.
15.
_1Z19_*
2069.
25.
830.
J.^2^
48.
1207.
1269.
48.
1960.
1899.
7.
1143.
36.
7.
1143.
34.
7.
1143.
32.
9.
784.
31.

RECEPTOR
LOCATION
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DOWNWIND
NO. OF
POINT
SOURCES
51
51
51
19
19
19
0
0
0
51
51
51
19
19
19
0
0
0
51
51
51
19
19
19
0
0
0
51
51
51
19
19
19
0
0
0
51
51
51
AREA
GRID
MI
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
	 1^00
1.00
	 1..QQ
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
0.25
0.25
0.25
(L. 23
0.25
0.25
0.25
0_.2.5
0.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
NO.
AREA
HGTS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OF DECAY
CONST
/SEC
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1 0.000
1 0.000
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
0.000385
WIND
SPEED
M/S
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
WIND
POWER
LAW
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15

-------
AREA SOURCE,  WIND AZIMUTH  IS  349

LOCA-
TION
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND
UPWIND
CENTER
DNWIND

STA-
BILITY
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
STABLE
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
UNSTAB
MIXING
CEIL.
(M)
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
100.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
500.
WIND
SPEED
(M/S)
2.
2.
2.
6.
6.
6.
18.
18.
18.
2.
2.
2.
6.
6.
6.
18.
18.
18.
2.
2.
2.
6.
6.
6.
18.
18.
18.
2.
2.
2.
6.
6.
6.
18.
18.
18.
2.
2.
2.
6.
6.
6.
18.
18.
18.
2.
2.
2.
6.
6.
6.
18.
18.
18.
                                        UNITS  ARE MICROGRAMS/CU.M.
                                     MODEL
                                     CONCEN-   ABS. ERROR  BY  WIND ERROR
                                     TRATION    3 DEG   10  DEC    45 DEC
                               MEAN
  12,
1576,
1890.
   4,
 525,
 630,
   1,
 175,
 210,
  12,
1566,
1422,
   4,
 522,
 474.
   1,
 174,
 158,
   9,
1063,
1879,
   3,
 354,
 626,
   1,
 118,
 209,
   3,
 571,
 382,
   1,
 190,
 127,
   0,
  63,
  42,
   9,
1065,
1879,
   3,
 355,
 626,
   1,
 118,
 209,
   2,
 382,
 379,
   1,
 127,
 126,
   0,
  42,
  42,

 377,
  1,
 32,
489,
  0,
 11,
163,
  0,
  4,
 54,
  1,
 29,
360.
  0,
 10.
120,
  0.
  3.
 40,
  1.
 33.
487,
  0,
 11,
162,
  0.
  4.
 54,
  0.
 68,
 99.
  0,
 23.
 33,
  0.
  8.
 11,
  1,
 31.
487.
  0,
 10.
162.
  0.
  3,
 54,
  0,
 82,
 98.
  0.
 27.
 33,
  0,
  9,
 11,

 61,
   2,
 106,
1247,
   1,
  35.
 416,
   0,
  12,
 139,
   2,
 107,
 935.
   1,
  36,
 312,
   0,
  12.
 104,
   I,
  60.
1243.
   0.
  20.
 414.
   0,
   7.
 138.
   1.
  30.
 252,
   0,
  10.
  84,
   0.
   3.
  28,
   1.
  58.
1243.
   0.
  19.
 414.
   0,
   6.
 138.
   0.
  26,
 250,
   0,
   9.
  83,
   0,
   3,
  28,

 149,
  66,
 526,
1823,
  22,
 144,
 607,
   7,
  48,
 202,
  59,
 453.
1363,
  20.
 151,
 454.
   7.
  50.
 151,
  65,
 245.
1815.
  22.
  82.
 605,
   7,
  27,
 202.
  14.
 173,
 367,
   5.
  58.
 122.
   2,
  19.
  41,
  65.
 246,
1815.
  22.
  82.
 605,
   7,
  27.
 202,
  13.
  83,
 365.
   4.
  28,
 122,
   1.
   9,
  41,

 255,
                  Figure F-4.  Sample  of Sensitivity Results for
                        Changes in Wind Direction Input

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