Final Report
REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION STUDY:
A PROSPECTUS
Part I — Summary
Prepared for:
THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH CENTER
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA
CONTRACT 68-02-0207
SRI Project 1365
STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE
" lo Park, California 94025 • U.S.A.
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Final Report
January 1972
REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION STUDY:
A PROSPECTUS
Part I - Summary
Prepared for:
THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH CENTER
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA
CONTRACT 68-02-0207
SRI Project 1365
R. T. H. COLLIS, Director
Atmospheric Sciences Laboratory (Project Director)
DON R. SCHEUCH, Vice President,
Office of Research Operations
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FOREWORD
This Prospectus was prepared by Stanford Research Institute for the
Environmental Protection Agency under Contract No. 68-02-0207. While
this Prospectus has been reviewed by the Environmental Protection Agency
and approved for publication, approval does not signify that the contents
necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, nor is it intended to describe the Agency's program.
The complete Prospectus for the Regional Air Pollution Study is pre-
sented in four parts.
Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Summary
Research Plan
Research Facility
Management Plan
A table of contents for all parts is provided in each of the four
parts to facilitate the use of the Prospectus.
i11
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This Prospectus was prepared at the Institute by a project team
representing the full range of disciplines necessary for the comprehensive
analysis of problems of air pollution. Research team members were drawn
from four of the eight Institute Research Divisions, including the fol-
lowing:
Electronic and Radio Sciences
Physical Sciences
Information Science and Engineering
Engineering Systems
Because of the interdisciplinary nature of the effort, the contributions
and research findings of many team members are distributed throughout this
Prospectus rather than concentrated in one or more specific chapters. Ac-
cordingly, contributions are acknowledged below by general areas associ-
ated with the study of air pollution problems.
This Prospectus was prepared under the supervision of R.T.H. Collis,
Project Director. The Project Leader was Elmer Robinson (now of Washing-
ton State University) until 15 January, when Richard B. Bothun, who had
been Deputy Project Leader, succeeded him.
The main contributions were as follows:
.
Elmer Robinson--Project leadership and the formulation of the
Research Plan
.
Richard B. Bothun--Project leadership and administrative man-
agement and the formulation of the Management Plan.
Technically, the principal contributions were:
.
Richard B. Bothun--Management, scheduling, costing, planning
.
Leonard A. Cavanagh--Air quality instruments, atmospheric
chemistry
v
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.
Ronald T. H. Collis--Meteorology, remote sensing, research
planning
.
Walter F. Dabberdt--Transport and diffusion modeling, mete-
orology, instrumentation
.
Paul A. Davis--Solar radiation, tracer studies
.
Roy M. Endlich--Meteorological models, satellite systems
.
James L. Mackin--Helicopter and aircraft systems
.
Elmer Robinson--Meteorology,
chemistry, research planning
instrumentation, atmospheric
.
Sylvin Rubin--Data processing systems
.
Konrad T. Semrau--Source inventory and emissions
.
Elmer B. Shapiro--Communication systems
.
James H. Smith--Atmospheric chemical transformation processes
.
Eldon J. Wiegman--Synoptic climatology
Valuable contributions were made in the latter stages of the project
by Dr. W. A. Perkins and Mr. J. S. Sandberg, consultants.
The Institute wishes to express its appreciation for the assistance
and provision of information by many staff members of the Environmental
Protection Agency, especially Charles R. Hosler, Contracting Officer's
Technical Representative; Dr. Warren B. Johnson, Jr., Chief, Model Devel-
opment Branch; Robert A. McCormick, Director, Division of Meteorology;
and Dr. A. P. Altshuller, Director, Division of Chemistry and Physics.
Additionally, the constructive criticism and comment provided by
members of the Meteorology Advisory Committee of the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency during the preparation of the Prospectus were of signifi-
cant value, and our indebtedness is hereby acknowledged.
vi
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CONTENTS
PART I - SUMMARY
FOREWORD. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ACKNOWLEDGMENT.
III
. . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
I
THE BASIC PREMISE
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
II
SCIENTIFIC AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT
. . . .
The Basic Tool--The Mathematical Model. . . . . . .
The Processes To Be Modeled. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Accuracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Current Limitations of Modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Steps To Improve Models. . . . . . . . . . . .
The Regional Scale. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
THE REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION STUDY (RAPS)
. . . . . . .
Concept. . . . . . . . . . .
Purpose. . . .
Organization
Objectives. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . . . . I .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . .
IV
SITE SELECTION
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
V
THE RESEARCH PLAN.
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Model Evaluation and Verification Program. . . . . . . . .
Meteorological Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Pollutant Source Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Air Quality Measurements. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Atmospheric, Chemical, and Biological Processes
Human Social and Economic Factors. . . . .
. . . . .
RAPS Technology Transfer
. . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
vii
iii
v
1
3
3
3
4
4
5
7
9
9
10
10
14
17
19
19
21
24
25
25
26
28
28
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CONTENTS
v
Continued
Schedules and Task Specifications for the Research Plan. .
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
100 Model Verification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
101 Boundary Layer Meteorology Program. . . . . .
102 Emission Inventory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
103 Air Quality Measurements. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
104 Model Calculation and Verification . . . . . .
200 Atmospheric, Chemical, and Biological Processes. . .
201 Gaseous Chemical Processes. . . . . . . . . . . . .
202 Atmospheric Aerosol Processes. . . . . . . . . . . .
203 Other Pollutant Related Atmospheric Processes. . . .
204 Atmospheric Scavenging by Precipitation. . . . . . .
205 Air Pollutant Scavenging by the Biosphere. . . . . .
206 Atmospheric Processes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
300 Human, Social, and Economic Factors. . . . . .
301 Human and Social Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
302 Economic Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
400 Transfer of RAPS Technology for Control Agency
Applications and the Formulation of Control Strategies
401 Source Inventory Procedures. . . . . . . . . . . . .
402 Atmospheric Monitoring. . . . . . . . . . . .
403 Data Handling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
404 Modeling Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
405 Other Significant Factors in Control Strategy
Formulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
VI
THE FACILITY
. . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Rationale. . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Basic Operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Basis for Monitoring Network. . . . . . . . . . .
The St. Louis Regional Monitoring Network. . . . .
viii
30
30
45
46
46
47
47
48
49
49
51
51
52
53
54
54
55
55
57
57
58
59
60
63
63
63
63
66
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VII
VIII
CONTENTS
MANAGEMENT AND SCHEDULING.
. . . .
. . . . . .
Introduction. . . . . . . . . .
Facility Activation Schedule. . . . . . . .
Permanent Management and Staffing. . . . .
. . . .
" . . .
. . . . .
COST SUMMARY
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . .
Permanent Facilities and Staff . . . . . . . .
Helicopter and Mixing Layer Observational Program. .
Research Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personnel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Instrumentation and Equipment. . . . . . . . . . .
Operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total Cost of Research Plan. . . . . .
Total Costs of RAPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ix
71
71
71
73
77
77
80
80
81
83
85
86
86
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CONTENTS
PART II - RESEARCH PLAN
FOREWORD. . .
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
ACKNOWLEDG~rnNT . . . . . .
III
.. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
I
INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH PLAN
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. ..
II
RESEARCH PLAN--OVERVIEW OF AIR POLLUTION MODELING
.. .. .. ..
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Model Evaluation and Verification Program . . . . .
RESEARCH PLAN--METEOROLOGICAL PROCESSES
.. .. .. .. .. ..
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Atmospheric Dispersion Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gaussian Formulae. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gradient Transfer Theory
Other Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Numerical Weather Prediction Models. . . . . . . . . . .
Model Sensitivity to Meteorological Variables
Experimental Meteorology Program. . . . . . . . . . . .
General. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tracer Studies of Transport and Diffusion. . . . . . .
Urban and Rural Radiation Budget Studies. . . . . . .
The Role of Remote Probing Techniques. . . . . . . . .
Upper Air Sampling Program . . . . . . . .
Plume Di spersion Studies. . . . . . . . . . . .
Studies of Spatial Variabilities. . . . . . . . . . .
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
IV
RESEARCH PLAN--ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND TRANSPORTATION
PROCESSES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Introduction
.. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
x
iii
v
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-79
-81
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IV-l
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CONTENTS
IV
Continued
The S02 Cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Emission Sources of Sulfur Compounds. . . . . . . . .
Chemical Reactions of Importance to the SO -Cycle Model
2
Removal Mechanisms for Sulfur Compounds. . . . .
The Research Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The Photochemical Cycle--Hydrocarbons:Nitrogen Oxides:
Oxidant. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sources of Nitrogen Oxides. . . . . . . . . . .
Reactions of Nitrogen Oxides in the Absence of
Hydrocarbons. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hydrocarbon Sources and Removal Processes
The Hydrocarbon-Nitrogen Oxides Reactions.
The Research Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The Particulate Cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Background Haze. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Natural Background Aerosols. . . . . . . .
Particulate Emissions Inventory. . . . . . . . .
The Chemistry of Particulate Formation in the
Atmosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The Research Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Development of Continuous Rainfall pH Measurement and
Sequential Precipitation Collection. . . . . . . .
Carbon Monoxide Cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Source of CO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Important Chemical Reactions of CO . . . .. ....
CO Sinks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The CO Research Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The Chemical Research Program Schedule . . . . . .
Aerosol Research Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S02 Flux Measurement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The HC:NO Research Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
x
The CO Research Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References. . . . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
xi
IV-2
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-8
-9
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-39
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VII
VIII
APPENDIX
CONTENTS
V
RESEARCH PLAN--EMISSION ESTIMATES. . . . .
. . . . .
Requirements of the Emission Inventory System. . . . . .
Classification of Emission Sources. . . . . . . . . . .
Source Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Source Uni t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....
Stationary Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Mobile Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Po 11 u t ant s ......................
Factors Affecting Emi ssion Level s . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stationary Sources. . . . . . . . . . . .
Mobile Sources. . . . . . . . . . .. "'"
Inventory Procedures and Accuracy. . . . . . . . . . . .
Accuracy of Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Procedures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Emission Model. . . . . . . . . . .
Control Strategy Studies
Inventory Schedule
. . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
VI
RESEARCH PLAN--ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES. . . .
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Human and Social Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Economic Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
RESEARCH PLAN--TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
. . . .
. . . . . .
Introduction . . . . . .
Technology Transfer Program. . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . .
OTHER AGENCY RESEARCH PROGRAMS
. . . . . .
. . . .
II1ETROIIffiX . . . . .
NCAR Fate of Pollutants
NOAA 's I\ffiSOMEX . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . . .
Study (FAPS)
. . . . . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . . .
SCHEDULES AND TASK SPECIFICATIONS FOR THE RESEARCH
PLAN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xii
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VI-l
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VI II-I
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A-I
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CONTENTS
PART III - RESEARCH FACILITY
FOREWORD. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ACKNOWLEDGMENT. . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . .
IX
INTRODUCTION TO FACILITY DESIGN AND OPERATIONS
. . . . .
X
ST. LOUIS SITE SELECTION
. . . . . . . .
. . . . .
Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Site Selection Criteria. . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . .
Method of Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
National Summary Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Meteorology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fo s s il Fuel s .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Regional Isolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
General Analysis of Standard Metropolitan Statistical
Areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Pollutants
. . " . .
. . . .
. . . .
Manufacturing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Geographical Separation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sunshine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Space Heating. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Resul ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Agricul ture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
XI
NEAR-SURFACE ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH FACILITY
. . . . . . .
General Considerations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Horizontal Extent of the Network. . . . . . . . . . . .
Network Orientation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Characteristics of Stations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Meteorological Instrumentation. . . . . . . . . .
xiii
iii
v
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XII
XIII
CONTENTS
AIR QUALITY SAMPLING
. . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . .
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Permanent Network Monitoring Stations for Pollutants
Semipermanent Monitoring Station. . . . . . . . .
Pollutants To Be Monitored for Establishment of Air
Qual it Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Carbon Monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Methane, Nonmethane Hydrocarbons, and Total Hydro-
carbons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nitrogen Oxides. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sulfur Oxides and Hydrogen Sulfide and Total Sulfur. .
Ozone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Suspended Particulate Material. . . . . . . . . . . .
Other Pollutants of Interest Not Measured by Network
Pollutant Monitoring Techniques. . . . . . . .
Carbon Monoxide, Methane, and Total Hydrocarbon.
Nitric Oxide, .Total Nitrogen Oxides. . . . . . . . . .
Sulfur Dioxide, Hydrogen Sulfide, Total Sulfur. . . .
Ozone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Suspended Particulate Material . . . . . . . . .
Summary of Pollutant Instruments . . . . . .
Instrument Calibration. . . . . . . . . .
Local Calibration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Calibration Vans for Primary Calibration. . . . . . .
Role of Research Programs. . . . . . . . . .
DATA ACQUISITION AND HANDLING
. . . .
. . . . . .
. . . .
Introduction. . . . . .
Policies and Principles.
System Overview. . . . .
Instruments. . . . . . . . . .
Data Acquisition Equipment at Stations
Data Formats. . . . . . . . . . . .
The Central Data Collection Facility
. . . . . .
, . . .
. . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Functional Tasks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Equipment Complement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xiv
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XIII
XIV
CONTENTS
Continued
The Central Data Collection Facility (cont.)
Disk File Organization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Manual Data Entry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Reliability Considerations and Maintenance. . . . .
Communications for the Data Collection Network. . . .
The Telephone Companies. . . . . . .
Facilities
Cost s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Alternative Communication Approaches. . . . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
MIXING LAYER OBSERVATION PROGRAM
. . . . .
Introduct ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
General Mixing Layer Observation Methods . . . .
Primary Aircraft Support for the Regional Study.
Helicopter Support Function. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Schedule of Operations. . . . . . . . . . . .
Cost s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Helicopter Instrumentation Package. . . . . .
Balloon Tracking System. . . . . . . . . . . . .
System Design Concept . . . .
Activation Schedule. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Cost s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Special Aircraft-Based Meteorological Observations
General Concepts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Instrumentation Considerations . . . . . .
Special Aircraft-Based Air Quality Observations.
Western Environmental Research Laboratory (WERL)
Select ion of Parameters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Selection of Surveillance Techniques. . . .
XV
GENERAL CLIMATOLOGY OF ST. LOUIS
. . . . . .
. . . . .
Introduct ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Principal Seasonal Meteorological Characteristics
Cold Season (Mid-October to Mid-April) . . . .
Warm Season (Mid-April to Mid-November) . . . . . .
xv
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CONTENTS
xv
Continued
Meteorological Parameters Relating to Pollution. .
Stagnating Anticyclones. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Wind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
XVI
LAND AND BUILDING REQUIREMENTS
. . . . . . . .
. . . . .
Central Facility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Selection Criteria. . . .
Interior Space Requirements. . . .
Outdoor Facilities. . . . . . . . . .
Instrument Station Sites. . . . . . . . .
Selection Criteria
Implementation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
xvi
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CONTENTS
PART IV - MANAGEMENT PLAN
FOREWORD. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ACKNOWLEDGMENT. . . . . . .
XVII
XVII I
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
INTRODUCTION TO THE REGIONAL STUDY SCHEDULING;
STAFFING, AND COST . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
Introduction
. . . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
. . . .
The St. Louis Facility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Facility Activation Schedule. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Permanent Management and Staffing. . . . . . . . . . .
Cost s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Permanent Facility and Staff. . . . . . . . . . . .
Helicopter and Mixing Layer Observational Program. .
Research Plan. . . . . . . . . . .
Total Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE OF THE ST. LOUIS FACILITY
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Prototype Instrument Station and Central Facility
Schedule Network and Estimated Activity Durations. .
Activity Descriptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Network Critical Path. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Activation Schedule of Class A and Class B Stations. .
Uni t Schedules. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Sequential Station Activation Schedule and Mainte-
nance Requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Full Facility Implementation. . . . . . . . . . . . .
General Scheduling Conditions. . . . . . . . . . . .
Class A and B Station Activation with Prior Proto-
type Station Acceptance. . . . . . . . . . . .
Class A and B Station Activation Without Prior
Prototype Station Acceptance. . . . . . . . . . . .
Class C Station Activation Schedule. . . . . .
Aggregate Facility Activation Schedule . . . .
xvii
iii
v
XVII-l
-1
-2
-5
-7
-9
-9
-12
-12
-14
XVII 1-1
-1
-3
-3
-17
-27
-33
-33
-36
-44
-44
-53
-55
-59
-63
-------
XIX
XX
XXI
CONTENTS
PERMANENT AffiNAGEMENT AND STAFFING
. . . . .
. . . . . .
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
Regional Study Management. . . . . . . . . . . .
Research Triangle Park St aff ... . . . . . . . . . .
St. Louis EPA Operating Staff with EPA Operation
St. Loui s EPA St aff with Prime Con tractor Operat ion.
St. Louis Facility Implementation. . . . . . .
Staff Scheduling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ST. LOUIS FACILITY INITIAL COSTS AND ANNUAL OPERATING
COSTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Introduct ion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ini t ial Costs of the St. Louis Facil i ty . . . . . . . .
Air Quality and Meteorological Instruments. . . . .
Instrument Station Preparation, Facilities, and
Appurtenances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ditigal Data Terminal and Communication Equipment. .
Central Facility and Equipment . . . . .
Vehicular Support Facilities. . . . . . . . .
Total Initial Costs. . . . .
Annual Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . .
Personnel. . . . . . . . . .
Instrument Replacement and Spare Parts . . . .
Telephone Communication System. . . . . . . . . . .
Motor Vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Building and Land Rental. . . . . . . . . . .
Miscellaneous. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total Estimated Annual Operating Costs. . . . . . .
RESEARCH PLAN COSTS.
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . .
Introduction
Personnel. .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
Requ irement s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Cost s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Instrumentation and Equipment. . . . . . . . . .
Operations
Total Cost
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
xviii
XIX-l
-1
-1
-6
-13
-25
-26
-32
XX-l
-1
-1
-3
-5
-6
-9
-11
-13
-15
-17
-17
-19
-20
-21
-22
-23
XXI -1
-1
-2
-2
-5
-6
-10
-11
-------
ILLUSTRATIONS
PART I - SUMMARY
1
Steps in the Air Quality Model. . . . .
. . . . . .
2
RAPS Role in the Overall EPA Function of Formulating
Control Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
General Scheme of the RAPS Research Tasks
. . . . .
4
Model Verification Program
. . . . .
. . . .
. . . . . .
5
Summary Organization of the Regional Study
xix
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . . .
6
11
13
22
74
-------
TABLES
PART I - SUMMARY
1
Classification of the Regional Study Instrument Stations. .
2
Estimated Initial Costs of the St. Louis Facility by
Principal Installation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
3
Estimated Initial Costs of the St. Louis Facility by
System Components. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
4
Estimated Total Annual Operating Costs of the St. Louis
Facility and Permanent Staff. . . . . . . . . .
5
Estimated Initial and Operating Costs During Implementation
of the St. Louis Facility. . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
Estimated Costs of Helicopter Operation by Quarter. .
7
Summary of Personnel Requirements for the Research Plan
8
Estimated Cost of Personnel Required by the Research Plan
9
Estimated Costs of Specialized Equipment for the Research
Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
Estimated Operational Costs of the METRAC System. .
11
Total Estimated Costs of the Research Plan. . .
. . . . .
12
Estimated Total Quarterly Costs of the Regional Study
xxi
67
77
78
79
79
80
81
83
84
85
87
88
-------
I
THE BASIC PREMISE
Both implicitly and explicitly, the Air Quality Act as Amended (1970)
accepts the premise that air quality improvement can be planned scientif-
ically. Specifically. it presupposes that emission standards can be set
by reference to the desired ambient air quality standards, taking into
account the manner in which the combined products of various sources in
any particular area are dispersed or concentrated by physical, chemical,
or meteorological processes. Following its announced policy of emphasis
on enforcement, the Environmental Protection Agency is aiding state and
local agencies to develop strategies to ensure compliance with such air
quality standards as have been set. EPA is also following a policy to
extend control procedures to achieve improved air quality standards as
they are specified.
This overall concept will fail or succeed to the extent that the
basic premise is true. Can air quality improvement be planned scientif-
ically, at least to a useful degree, with existing knowledge and capa-
bilities? If not, what is lacking? By what time can any shortcomings
be rectified? The procedures, such as developing Implementation Plans
called for under the Air Quality Act (or of filing Environmental Impact
Statements under the National Environmental Policy Act), take for granted
that existing knowledge and capability are at least minimally adequate
for planning. Those who challenge this belief feel that all that can
usefully be done at the present time and in the near future is to reduce
all emissions to the minimum possible within the state of the art, re-
gardless of any postulated requirements to meet what they may consider
to be artificial air quality standards.
In either case, it is clear that room exists for considerable im-
provement in the knowledge and capability that are necessary for confi-
dently relating cause and effect both between emissions and air quality
and between control strategies and air quality.
There also can be no doubt as to the value of such a capability.
Without such a basis, intelligent direction cannot be given to improving
the state of the art of emission control; nor can correct decisions be
made between alternatives in control strategies that do not depend on
emission suppression and in allocating priorities and assessing cost-
effectiveness in either case.
1
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II
SCIENTIFIC AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT
The Basic Tool--The Mathematical Model
The central element of the concept of scientific air quality manage-
ment is the mathematical simulation model. With this tool, the result
of certain actions or inaction can be predicted. If the models are
accurate and the data input correctly known or forecast, their output
will show the effects of change, whether it occurs without specific in-
tervention or as the result of such intervention. The accuracy of the
models will depend on the degree to which the processes used are under-
stood and can be described within the constraints of the mathematical
technique. Accuracy will also reflect the inherent uncertainties of
the statistical approach. In addition, since the atmosphere is the
medium in which pollutants are dispersed, the only too well known dif-
ficulties in describing and predicting meteorological conditions must
be recognized.
The Processes to be Modeled
However, before a simulation model can be formulated, it is neces-
sary that the physical, chemical, and meteorological processes that are
entailed be understood. In the very simplest form, models will consider
only the gross relationships between emissions and air quality and will
be correspondingly imprecise. More detailed and comprehensive models
can be developed for certain processes, but they may be limited in their
application by difficulties in providing adequate input data. The latter
particularly in regard to emissions, are often difficult to obtain at any
price, and certainly their collection poses critical questions as to
costs. Such factors become pertinent when the usefulness or value of
any given model is considered. Will more timely and voluminous input
data improve the accuracy of the models' output? Will more highly devel-
oped formulations of complex physical, chemical or meteorological pro-
cesses more accurately describe and predict what is happening in the
real world? How accurate are such descriptions and predictions anyway?
These questions must be faced and satisfactorily answered if the models
are really to playa key role in air quality management.
3
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Accuracy
A most important question is the accuracy of the models. If con-
trol strategies with far-reaching economic and social effects are to be
imposed on the basis of a simulation model, it is more than desirable
that the model's output be accurate and sufficiently precise to enable
the effects of the strategies to be evaluated. In dealing with control
and abatement procedures that require large increases of investment in
plant or of costs of operation, especially where the relationship between
such procedures and the hoped for improvement in air quality is not
linearly related, it is not enough to know that the model is accurate
in general terms. It must be capable of providing more precise informa-
tion on the benefits in air quality to be derived from the costs of the
control and abatement procedures proposed. Without such a capability,
the procedures could be very uneconomical and absorb effort and resources
that could be used more profitably elsewhere. These aspects become in-
creasingly important as the more obvious control and abatement proce-
dures are adopted and attention is turned to the more marginally produc-
tive strategies.
Above all, in the use of modeling techniques in air quality manage-
ment, the need is most urgent to ensure that all concerned have confi-
dence in the approach. With large financial involvements, with the
livelihood of whole communities at stake, with the tremendous pressures
on limited resources to plan, implement, and enforce control strategies,
it is imperative that decisions are not only wisely taken but also that
they are readily seen and recognized as being wisely taken. Sound model-
ing capability serves all aspects of this obligation and provides the
evidence on which sound enforcement strategies can be sustained.
Current Limitations of Modeling
As noted above, the position regarding air quality modeling at the
present time is far from satisfactory. A wide diversity of such models
exists or is being developed, and these models cover a range from quite
limited problems--such as diffusion from a single point source--to the
extended scale covering large urban complexes. Only in a few cases
that are concerned with fairly simple problems are the models well
tried and sufficiently verified to warrant confidence in their use.
There are many reasons for this state of affairs. The major reason,
quite simply, is that solving the problem has just not been undertaken
on an adequate scale. Progress made with the limited funds and resources
available to date has lagged far behind the need, which itself has been
4
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recognized as urgent only in the las t year or so. As indica ted, the
development and verification of suitable models are very difficult,
especially on a major scale, and depend strongly on the availability
of adequate data on which to base the formulation and to develop its
application. It is possibly even more difficult to assess its capability
and measure its precision accurately, especially where long time periods
are needed to provide an adequate basis of comparison.
Steps to Improve Models
The steps taken in conceiving, developing, and proving an air
quality model are shown diagramatically in Figure 1. To the present,
most progress has been made in understanding the processes and in for-
mulating the model, even though the item in the diagram--"Observations
of Various Conditions"--has been limited if not thoroughly inadequate.
For the latter reasons, operation of the model both for description
and prediction has generally been constrained, and the comparison and
evaluation of its results against observations have frequently been
inconclusive or inadequate, if indeed they have been attempted at all.
The decisive limitation in the whole process lies in the first
area noted in the diagram--"Observation of Various Conditions." This
area is fundamental to all aspects of the problem, and its shortcomings
cripple every subsequent endeavor. Thus, many existing models are
based on the very limited data that have been acquired routinely for
quite different purposes, e.g., airway weather forecasts, and are woe-
fully inadequate in both extent and spatial and temporal resolution
for the development and verification of models or even, in some cases,
for developing an adequate understanding of the processes involved.
The limitation of basic data results from the fact that the collec-
tion of such data on a sufficiently continuous scale in space and time
and over a large enough area for long enough periods is extremely
costly, even if suitable sensing devices exist. (The situation is
much worse when there is no practical or reasonably economical way to
make even the individual observations--as is the case with certain
pOllutants.) Even when attempts have been made in certain circum-
stances to set up special networks of observational facilities and
carry out intensive data collection programs, the results have often
left much to be desired and reflect the shortcuts that have been taken
because of cost in instrumentation and in collecting and handling the
data. Particularly in the past, when much reliance had to be placed
on manual procedures of data collection and analysis, the data ac-
quired under such programs were limited and somewhat piecemeal--serving
5
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OBSERVATION UNDERSTANDING FORMULATION
OF VARIOUS r--+ THE PROCESSES -+ OF MODEL
CONDITIONS INVOLVED
t + ~
I
I I
~----_J
I
I '
I OPERATION OF
r-----' MODEL PREDICTION
I
Feedback
for
Improvement
I
COMPARISON
.. AND 1..- DESCRIPTION
EVALUATION
j
SA-1365-49
FIGURE 1
STEPS IN THE AIR QUALITY MODEL
6
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only the immediate purpose for which they were collected--and remaining
of little value for use in other investigations.
Even with the emergence of relatively moderately priced automatic
data processing facilities, the acquisition of basic data remains a con-
siderable and costly undertaking, especially on a major and extended
scale. But to those considering the major and pressing problems of air
quality management, it has become increasingly clear that little progress
can be made in the solution of such problems unless they are treated on
a major and extended scale. Only by fully recognizing the magnitude of
the technical problems in the way in which current legislation and EPA
policies have recognized the whole question of air quality, can adequate
tools be developed for scientific air quality management.
The Regional Scale
The difficulties of air quality management are apparent in the con-
text of Air Quality Regions, where emission standards within the region
are to be related to air quality standards. For these purposes it is
necessary that at all scales, from the local to the extended regional
scale, there is an adequate understanding of how emission from the sev-
eral sources combine and react to produce concentrations of specific
pollutants throughout the area. This is particularly the case where
the air quality of large rural and suburban areas is greatly affected
by emissions from remote urban centers that may be up to 100 miles away.
Control and abatement procedures must take these indirect effects into
account. To formulate economical and realistic strategies for such
procedures, however, it is necessary also to consider the less direct
aspects of health, economics, land use, and community planning in the
urban/rural complex.
7
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III
THE REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION STUDY
(RAPS)
Concept
The problem of effectively managing air quality within the framework
of current legislation ~ ~ regional basis is thus seen to be extensive
and complex. The need to evaluate and improve control strategies already
adopted or to identify new approaches must be considered on this basis.
Realization of this, together with the recognition that much of the exist-
ing understanding is based on limited and piecemeal data, has led to the
concept that it is necessary to make a new large scale integrated attack
on the total problem. By effectively coordinating efforts on a number of
interrelated problems, a combination of resources can be brought to bear
in an economical and productive manner. This concept is particularly
applicable to the problems of air quality management on the regional
scale, where it is necessary to relate the effects of the urban center
on the suburban and rural environs.
Only within such a framework can the necessary basic data on emission
sources, meteorological factors, and other physical and chemical effects
be studied in appropriate relationships and used to improve the basic
understanding and formulation of the appropriate air quality models. Only
on such a basis can the results of such models be evaluated by comparison
with adequate data on the true nature of conditions. Only with such a
background of relevant data can the ramifications of air pollution in the
urban/rural complex be adequately understood in terms of health, economjcs,
land use, and community planning so that control strategies can be formu-
lated and ordered with maximum effect.
It is the purpose of this Prospectus to identify the separate ele-
ments constituting such an undertaking and to describe how it can be
carried out.
In this Part I--General Summary--the major concept of RAPS is pre-
sented, with an outline description of the Research Plan, the Facility,
and the Management Plan (which includes budgetary information). Subsequent
sections, following the same pattern, provide fully detailed descriptions.
Where appropriate, the rationale for the approach proposed is discussed.
9
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Purpose
The initial purpose of the Regional Air Pollution Study is to
evaluate and demonstrate how well the effectiveness of air pollution con-
trol strategies on all scales appropriate to air quality within a region
can be assessed and predicted. Its further purpose is to serve as the
basis for developing improved control strategies that can be applied
generally.
Both purposes require the development of a better understanding of
the chemical, physical, and biological processes that are entailed in
determining the concentration of pollutants and the modification of air
quality. They also require a better understanding of certain human,
social, and economic factors that are significant in formulating control
strategies. Above all, however, they require the testing, verification,
evaluation, and improvement of mathematical simulation models that are the
basic tools of scientific air quality management and a knowledge of how
such models can be used the most effectively.
It should be noted that the overall purpose of RAPS is to provide
the basis necessary for the formulation of control strategies rather
than to develop control and abatement procedures as such. Its relation~
ship to the analytical and decision-making processes in formulating con-
trol strategies is illustrated diagramatically in Figure 2.
Organization
Since the organiztion of the RAPS program by design is an integration
and combination of endeavors, it cannot be described briefly. However,
its essential structure follows from the purposes noted. Within this
structure, key tasks with well defined objectives and a series of sub-tasks
that are often interrelated and interdependent can be identified. Some
of the activities constituting these tasks are in fact part of ongoing
programs within the existing research organization of EPA. Following
basic management principles, it is proposed that the work of the overall
study be identified and organized as separate tasks, for each of which the
objectives are specified, the purposes described, and the responsibility
clearly defined. These taks will be arranged in a series of levels that
will reflect the dependence of one activity on another and will establish
the chain of responsibility of the task leaders. This responsibility is
functional rather than administrative and relates to the technical accomp-
lishment of the research task.
10
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i------------l
I RAPS I
I I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I I
I
L-----______I
MODELS FOR ASSESSING I
AND PREDICTING THE I AIR QUALITY
EFFECTS OF CONTROL - STANDARDS POLICY
STRATEGIES ON AIR I
QUALITY I
I . +
IMPROVED KNOWLEDGE I COMPARATIVE
I FORMULATION OF
OF POLLUTION ~ ANALYSES OF --..
CONTROL
TRANSFORMATION I ~ PROPOSED
STRATEGIES
PROCESSES I STRATEGIES
I +
I
INFORMATION ON I OTHER ECONOMIC,
ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, - I HUMAN, SOCIAL,
LEGAL. AND
AND HUMAN FACTORS I POLITICAL FACTORS
SA-1365-50
FIGURE 2
RAPS ROLE IN THE OVERALL EPA FUNCTION OF FORMULATING CONTROL
STRATEGIES
11
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The material to be used in these research tasks will be provided by
the facilities and support elements of RAPS, some of which will have a
general role to play only, while others will be substantially engaged in
specific research tasks. Again, EPA groups outside the RAPS organization
will provide some support and facilities.
The various facility and support elements will be the responsibility
of designated leaders, but here the responsibility is administrative as
well as functional. Thus, the manager, say, of a data acquisition net-
work will be responsible administratively for the performance of the
personnel and equipment assigned for this purpose and for the quality of
the product of the network. Functionally, his responsibility is to pro-
vide data as required for the various research tasks, of one or more of
which he may be the leader. The general scheme is indicated in Figure 3.
The organization of the research tasks and the functional roles of
the support and facilities elements are set out in the Research Plan.
The organization and the administrative structure of the support and
facilities elements are set out in the Management Plan. In both cases,
only the roles and responsibilities of the participants in relation to
RAPS are considered. Thus, the contribution of other EPA research programs
to the RAPS must be identified in terms of specific functional contribu-
tions as described in the research tasks.
The costs of such. participation by personnel of other EPA research
programs, as would also be the case with facilities and support provided
from outside the RAPS organization, are included in the RAPS budget for the
purposes of this Prospectus (interdepartmental adjustments can readily
be effected by transfer procedures as necessary) .
The general data base acquired under RAPS and, subject to availability
after meeting primary responsibilities, the resources and facilities of
RAPS will be available to other research programs of EPA, or for that
matter, to other agencies. Any additional costs incurred would naturally
be a charge on such other programs and budgeted accordingly.
By design, this Prospectus is based on the principle that RAPS should
be an independent, self-sufficient activity of EPA, certainly for planning
purposes. The possibility that other research programs and operational
activities could make valuable contributions has been considered, espe-
cially in the selection of the site. In the data collection and obser-
vational programs, however, such contributions have been considered as
supplementary rather than complementary, otherwise the tasks of specifying
facilities and assessing costs could not have been accomplished at this
time.
12
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RAPS
I-'
W
OTHER EPA
RESEARCH
PROGRAMS
D Research tasks
o Facilities and
support elements
FIGURE 3
GENERAL SCHEME OF THE RAPS RESEARCH TASKS
OTHER EPA
FACI LlTIES
AND SUPPORT
SA-1365-51
-------
In any case, although some economies and improvements might result
from integrating the resources and research efforts within RAPS and
with those of other programs planned for the St. Louis area, it is
considered that the scope and importance of the RAPS program require
that it be carried out as a principal endeavor. Any proposals to share
resources with other programs should be carefully evaluated to ensure
that efforts are not deflected from the main goals of RAPS.
In this context, it should be stressed that in the other programs
noted the emphasis is primarily on the scientific aspects of the problems
attacked or on operational problems quite different from those of RAPS.
RAPS is concerned with the development of improved air pollution control
strategies--and this concept must dominate all its research tasks.
Objectives
The overall objectives of the RAPS are to:
( 1)
Demonstrate and evaluate how well the. effectiveness of air
pollution control strategies may be assessed and predicted
within an air quality region.
(2)
Provide a basis for developing improved control strategies.
The specific objectives of the four principal tasks under which the
overall objectives will be accomplished are described below. Each princi-
pal task is divided further into a structure of subordinate tasks as dis-
cussed later in Section V in which are presented the objectives of each
subordinate task, together with details of the problems to be solved,
the approach to be followed, the schedule, budget, and interrelation to
other tasks.
The objectives of the four principal tasks are to:
Test, verify, and evaluate the capability of mathematical simu-
lation models to describe and predict the transport, diffusion,
and concentration of both inert and reactive pollutants over a
regional area. (100 series*)
*
These refer to a numerical classification system of tasks within the
Research Plan.
14
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.
Develop an improved understanding of the chemical, physical, and
biological processes that are entailed in determining the con~
centration (the dispersal) of polltants and the modification of
air quality. (200 series)
.
Develop a better understanding of factors of significance to the
design of improved control strategies in the urban/rural complex,
including health and economic effects and the role of land use
and community planning. (300 series)
.
Develop improved technology that can be applied in local and
regional control agency operations, including techniques for
emission inventories, air quality and meteorological measurement,
data handling and analysis, and the objective assessment of
effectiveness. (400 series)
15
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IV
SITE SELECTION
The best site for the RAPS program is centered in St. Louis, Missouri
This selection was based on the need to find a large city lying within the
central United States, which was away from oceans and mountains and which
typified the coal-burning industrial nature of many urban areas yet which
lay in an extended region of suburban or rural country. Some 33 Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) larger than 400,000 population were
considered in terms of the following criteria:
Surrounding area--This criterion includes measures of the isola-
tion of the SMSA from other SMSAs to gauge interarea pollutant
tendencies, measures of the rural fringe to be anticipated, and
similar location factors. Clear-cut relationships and interactive
mechanisms between the urban and rural areas are essential. The
absence of a surrounding area with a low level of development,
e.g., agricultural, eliminated an area from further consideration,
as did the proximity of large bodies of water.
.
Heterogeneous emissions--Several tests were applied for this
criterion, including fuel used, types of industry in the region,
and the current pollution mix. An important specific factor was
the extent of coal usage because of its relation to both sulfur
oxides and particle emissions. A lack of sulfur oxide emissions
eliminated an area.
.
Area size--This criterion gave a general measure of the expected
scope and magnitude of the Regional Study for each candidate site.
.
Pollution control program--The various candidate areas had con-
siderable variation in their existing control programs. It ap-
peared desirable that the Regional Study be carried out at a site
where the control program is generally well developed. Such a
site would provide a background of data and general experience
that could be used to establish the Regional Study. In addition,
a Central District program could provide initial contacts with
industrial sources for the gathering of source inventory data.
.
Historical information--Historical data, including meteorological
and pollution, applicable to a site also varied widely. In
17
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general, a site tended to be more attractive as the quantity of
historical data increases. Care was exercised to distinguish.
between quantity and quality.
Climate--The site should possess a climatic representative of a
large section of the nation or other potential sites. Moreover
the climate should permit experimental work throughout the great-
est possible portion of the year.
The comparison of the characteristics of
these criteria reduced the group to four most
These are Birmingham, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh,
the 33 candidate areas with
appropriate possible areas.
and St. Louis.
A final review of the respective merits of the four candiate sites
led to the following comparative assessment
Bir- Cincin- Pitts- St.
Criterion mingham nati burgh Louis
Surrounding area Fair Poor Good Good
Heterogeneous emissions Fair Fair Fair Good
Area size Good Good Good Good
Pollution control program Poor Good Good Good
Historical information Poor Good Fair Good
Climate Good Fair Fair Good
On this basis, St. Louis emerged as the obvious prime choice.
18
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v
THE RESEARCH PLAN
Introduction
The Research Plan and its rationale are outlined in broad terms, fol-
lowed by a detailed specification of the task structure that will be set
up to accomplish the objectives of the plan.
The scope of research efforts in the field of boundary layer simula-
tion modeling centers in the need to understand, describe, predict, and
ultimately control air quality in the lowermost stratum of the atmosphere.
Simulation modeling provides the necessary link between inferences gleaned
from air quality data obtained at isolated, single-point monitoring sta-
tions and the broad, yet detailed, picture of air quality that is required
over an entire urban region; it also permits assessment of the ramifica-
tions of actual or projected growth (zoning) patterns and emission con-
trol (proportional versus selective) prodecures.
Simulation modeling of the boundary layer refers precisely to phys-
ical or mathematical modeling of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer--
the lowermost stratum of the atmosphere (on the order of 1 km in depth) in
which the effect of surface friction on the wind field is manifested.
From a more practical standpoint, it is also the layer in which atmospheric
pollutants are generally emitted, transported, diffused, and transformed.
Mathematical models include, generally, gradient-transfer, similarity,
Gaussian plume and puff, and statistical formulations, while physical
modeling is done with the aid of wind or water tunnels. The utility of
the mathematical models lies in their ability to describe and parameterize
the physics of the problem over a large region and to predict meteorolog-
ical and air quality changes that may occur either in time (as a result
of the progression or development of weather systems) or from the altera-
tion of emission patterns. Ideally, mathematical models are capable of
achieving arbitrary degrees of temporal and spatial resolution to solve
specific problems. High resolution, for example, may be necessary when
considering pollutant concentration in urban core areas, whereas relatively
low spatial resolution may be required for the study on the mesoclimatic
scale. Physical models perhaps are less flexible yet are ideal for evalu-
ating the gross features of, for example, pollutant distributions in ex-
tremely homogeneous or complex locations.
19
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It is highly desirable that the RAPS program evaluate the ability of
the more promising models to simulate the atmospheric environment on both
the micro- and mesoscales. In this regard, the models should be evaluated
according to the specific function that they may serve. Specifically,
evaluation programs are recommended for the following three functional
model types: (1) diagnostic, (2) predictive, and (3) climatic. The pri-
mary emphasis at this time should be placed on the diagnostic model types,
because the current or steady-state distribution of pollutants on the meso-
scale must be described before detailed prognostic models can be developed.
Prognostic or predictive models in this sense do not include diagnostic
models, which may be input with anticipated meteorological and emissions
data to simulate an expected condition. Rather, predictive models use
current initial conditions to predict (on the order, say, of one or two
days) meteorological and perhaps emission fields, thereby predicting the
level of air quality for some time in the future. Moreover, emphasis
must be given to the development and evaluation of dynamic climatological
models that have the ability to describe the mesoclimate and changes that
may result from mesoscale urbanization.
Toward achievement of these goals, it is essential that the various
models be evaluated (and refined as appropriate) with "real" data collected
in the field. Such data collection will further one's ability to under-
stand and simulate the lower atmosphere on the mesoscale (on the order of
250 km). But unless one is able to observe the process he is attempting
to describe, simulation modeling may be little more than an esoteric ex-
ercise. A vast amount of effort has been expended in the development of
the various mathematical models and in their subsequent evaluation. In
almost no case have the observed data been obtained on a scale compatible
with the resolution of the model computation. Virtually all meteorological
and air quality data collected on a routine basis for purposes other than
model verification are the result of single point measurements (or, at the
very best, several adjacent points). As such, the observation is a repre-
sentation of very localized conditions and, in perspective, is a measure
of the integrated effect of various scales of motion: micro, meso, and
macro. In many cases, it is the microscale phenomena that predominate
and there can be little surprise at the inability of numerical models to
simulate the observation when the model, in fact, may predict only average
conditions over a broad area, say a one kilometer square or larger. There-
fore, another objective of the program should be the definition of the
spatial variability of ambient air quality, as well as the spatial resolu-
tion of the simulation models. In practice, a feedback between observa-
tions and computations should result whereby the observations define the
appropriate time and space scales that the models need to achieve, and
eventually the models are used to describe spatial and temporal variations
on the basis of a few representative measurements.
20
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Federal air quality guidelines define levels of air quality on several
time scales: hourly, eight-hourly, daily, and annual. On the basis of
results from the observation/modeling programs, spatial criteria also may
need to be established, It appears equally necessary to define criteria
where the air quality is evaluated in parallel over various lengths (or
areas or volumes) and time scales, In this regard and in consideration
of the requirements of model verification, the data collection program
must also concern itself with the potential of remote (long-path) observa-
tion techniques where a particular contaminant can be measured on the ap-
propriate spatial scale.
In summary, an extensive air monitoring network is required to define
the scope of the problem and to evaluate and refine the mathematical models
that are to simulate the level of air quality over a broad region. As
such, the network should be not only extensive but also flexible so that
it will serve the many purposes of the simulation program. It must be
capable of providing data from the substreet microscale to the regional
mesoscale. The observations will also be used to evaluate these models
on a variety of temporal scales: simulation of existing conditions (diag-
nostic requirement), prediction of short term changes (prognostic require-
ment), and evaluation of potential mesoclimatic alterations (extended
prognosis). (Physical modeling techniques could be used to supplement
the field observation program in urban core areas where the complexities
of building structures may severely limit routine in-situ measurements on
a practical basis, but ,this approach is more appropriate for studying
specific and linked problems).
Model Evaluation and Verification Program (100 Series)
The various simulation models can be evaluated most efficiently by
considering the models in terms of the functions that they may be expected
to serve, For convenience, these functions may be divided into three
parallel types: (1) the time frame and resolution of the model, (2) the
spatial frame and resolution, and (3) the class of contaminants to be con-
sidered. Therefore, the models may be classified according to whether
they simulate the quality of the air in terms of the concentration dis-
tribution of inert, reactive, or particulate contaminants over either
localized or expansive regions for current or forecasted conditions. Ac-
cordingly, there are about a dozen functions that a model or models may
be expected to fulfill; that is, there may be localized, diagnostic models
for inert pollutants that have application in planning and evaluation
studies or regional, prognostic models of reactive contaminants required
for emissions control procedures. Figure 4 illustrates this concept, as
well as the subsequent steps in a model evaluation and verification program
21
-------
t
I MODEL FUNCTION I
!
TIME SCALE: SPATIAL SCALE: POLLUTANT CLASS:
1 Diagnostic 1. Local (micro) 1. Inert
2. Prognostic 2. Regional (meso) 2. Reactive
3. Climatic 3. Partlcu late
I I
ELEMENTARY METEOROLOGICAL STRATIFICATION:
1. Wind speed-stagnation versus dilution
2. Stationarity-steady-state versus time variant
3. Insolation-strong versus weak
4. Etc.
I MODEL(S) I ~ . I INPUT DATA I
I
I
INITIAL MODEL ~-_J
EVALUATION
t t
I I
OBSERVATIONS AIR QUALITY
OF AIR QUALITY .... - - --+- SIMULATION,
"SIMPLE" MODEL
MODEL I
PERFORMANCE
I I UNACCEPTABLE I
t
ROUTINE, DETAILED
OBSERVATIONS
FINAL VERSION
OF MODEL
FIGURE 4
t
SPECIAL STUDIES
EMISSIONS
REVISION TO
MODEL
SA-1365-52
MODEL VERIFICATION PROGRAM
22
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It may be further desirable to test the various models under a variety of
distinct meteorological conditions. One such stratification could be the
separation of low and moderate-to-high wind speed cases (isolation of
stagnation conditions); other distinctions may be made between near steady-
state and strong advective conditions or strong versus weak insolation.
At this point, the purpose of the simulation will have been defined
and certain forcing physical criteria established; specific models falling
within this framework can then be introduced for evaluation and subsequent
verification. It is strongly recommended that the performance of the
models initially be evaluated against both observed measures of air quality
and the predictions of a simple standard (or reference model or models).
The simple model used by Hanna (1971)* or a relatively simple box or Gaus-
sian formulation (see Chapter III in Part II) should be considered. Quan-
titative, statistical techniques then should be applied to test the model
against the reference and the observations. If the test model cannot show
significant superiority to the reference, it can be safely excluded from
the later, detailed evaluation program. Emphasis should also be placed
on a qualitative assessment of the extent and nature of the required input
data. If a given model performs well but requires input data that may not
be readily available at the present or in the foreseeable future, then
alternative formulations or parameterization may be necessary for further
consideration.
Having initially gemonstrated its feasibility, the model should be
evaluated in detail to define both its strong and weak points so that re-
finements may be made. This detailed model evaluation program should in-
clude both fundamental and applied research tasks for the testing of the
basic components of the model, namely, metorological, emissions, and
transformation processes. The applied tasks are, in effect, individual
evaluation programs for the three process areas (or submodels). Submodel
predictions of wind, turbulence, stability, emissions, plume rise, reaction
rates, and so forth would be compared with routine observations from the
research network (which may not be strictly routine for nonresearch pro-
grams). The sensitivity of each model and submodel should be evaluated
with regard to the response of the output (model prediction) to variations
of the input parameters. In addition to these direct or applied tasks,
there is an acknowledged need for complementary research programs of a
more fundamental nature. These would be directed toward providing a
*
See Hanna, S. R., "Simple Methods of Calculating Dispersion from Urban
Area Sources," paper presented at the Conference on Air Polluation
Meteorology, Raleigh, N.C., Sponsored by Amer. Met. Soc., April 1971.
23
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better understanding of the physical nature of the various physical pro-
cesses so that the models may be revised accordingly and in conjunction
with the requirements resulting from the applied program. Many of these
fundamental programs can be anticipated; however, others, will result
only as output requirements of the initial, detailed evaluations. The
fundamental programs or special studies are given in detail in Part II.
Meteorological Factors
The transport and diffusion of pollutants in the atmospheric boundary
layer is a basic aspect. The RAPS program will include a comprehensive
network of observing stations at the surface, throughout the regional
area, that will provide the data from which trajectories and stream line
flow patterns can be calculated and used to determine the transport of
pollutants. Practical models usually will be based on less sophisticated
wind transport data, and thus the availability of this detailed informa-
tion will permit a candidate meteorological submodel to be evaluated in-
dependently and, if necessary. modified and retested.
Since total atmospheric transport of air pollutants is not always
adequately depicted by surface meteorological measurements, it will be
necessary to define the important transport weather parameters above
the surface to altitudes between 1000 m and 1500 m. The RAPS program
proposes to do this by extensive use of instrumented aircraft with supple-
mental use of balloon sounding systems.
Regionwide measurements are not totally adequate to interpret the
meteorological conditions within the meteorological boundary layer and
several specific research studies are incorporated in the RAPS program
to define in more detail a number of important boundary layer transport
processes. It is generally recognized that mixing and transport conditions
depend strongly on the nature of the underlying surface and that built-up
urban areas and relatively smooth rural and agricultural areas can affect
an air mass differently as it moves across these areas of different rough-
ness. To a certain degree, these effects can be predicted, but how to
account for changing conditions within an air mass as it moves from one
roughness regime to another is relatively unknown.
Specific experiments using specially dispersed tracer materials,
constant-altitude balloons, and special aircraft instrumentation will be
carried out to develop techniques for including changes in surface rough-
ness in the meteorological boundary layer submodel. Within an urban area,
building temperature, as well as the changes in building height and den-
sity, affect the meteorological transport processes, and thus special care
24
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will be given to experiments that will greatly improve understanding of the
interactions between urban surface characteristics and the pollutant trans-
port processes.
The RAPS program will also include studies of meteorological disper-
sion of effluents from specific single sources to characterize the inter-
actions between these effluents and environmental factors. One very sig-
nificant study topic is that entailing the dispersion of pollutants from
tall stacks across very rough areas characteristic of an urban area. From
this type of study, a better understanding can be obtained of pollutant
transport in an urban area and this information can be used as a "feedback
loop" in the evaluation and further development of diffusion models.
Pollutant Source Estimates
Pollutant emissions from both moving and stationary sources are an
obvious ingredient of any air pollution situation. The RAPS program must
have as an integral part a detailed, ongoing air pollutant inventory pro-
gram. This program must include, in addition to data on source emission
rates, the development of techniques by which these emission rates can be
estimated for specific periods of time. These time periods may be as
specific as a given hour for a particular day and will be necessary to
support the short time simulation modeling efforts. Thus the emission
estimation submodel will have two major components: the inventory of
source emissions and the development of techniques by which this inventory
can be used to estimate emissions over specific time periods.
It is expected that the RAPS emission estimation techniques, including
the programs for inventorying, data handling, and data storage, will also
have wide applicability to regional air pollution control programs because
of the general importance of emission assessment in a control operation.
Thus the techniques for emission assessment will be a significant and
relatively early area of RAPS technology development that can be applied
to the nation's air pollution control programs.
Air Quality Measurements
The acquisition of air quality data is another major RAPS activity.
Air quality data are incorporated in model verification studies through
the development of either average concentrations at a given set of points
or average concentration patterns over a given test area. The RAPS pro-
gram will include model verification studies of a variety of pollutants
but especially for major pollutants for which quality criteria have been
25
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or will be published. These pollutants currently include SOZ' CO, NO/NOZ'
photochemical oxidants, hydrocarbons, and suspended particles. Air quality
criteria are expected to be published for lead aerosols and fluorides.
There is also considerable air pollution control interest in mercury, HZS,
nonspecific odors, asbestos, toxic heavy metals, and polynuclear aromatic
compounds. Over the five-year research period estimated for the RAPS
program, it can be expected that the simulation model verification program
will require regionwide data on ambient air concentrations for each of
these materials. To meet these needs for air concentration data, the
RAPS design provides for an extensive program of air quality monitoring,
including a network of continuously operating telemetering stations.
Atmospheric, Chemical, and Biological Processes (ZOO Series)
In pollutant dispersion modeling studies, the transformation or loss
of pollutants in the atmosphere after emission from the source and before
arrival at the receptor point has been either ignored, i.e., pollutants
are assumed to be stable, nonreactive compounds, or treated in a very
simple manner, i .e" application of a simple "half-life" term. It is
known from both theoretical and experimental studies that pollutant com-
pounds in an ambient atmospheric environment are affected by a variety
of complex reaction processes. These processes can rapidly reduce the
concentrations observed in the atmosphere, i.e., precipitation will scrub
contaminants out of the air at a rate dependent on precipitation charac-
teristics and on the nature of the pollutant. There are also situations
in which pollutants are formed in the atmosphere by reactions containing
one or several other pollutant compounds. Notable in this category are
the photochemical processes used in the formation of photochemical smog
where both gases and aerosols are formed in the atmosphere by chemical
reactions.
The RAPS program will carry out specific research studies to deter-
mine how pollutants are transformed or scavenged in the atmosphere with
special reference to the major pOllutants--SOZ' NO, NOZ' CO, hydrocarbons,
and particulate materials. These transformation studies will include
reactions with other atmospheric constituents and the formation of aerosols
in the cases of SOZ' NOZ' and hydrocarbons. Photochemical reactions are
involved with SOZ' NO, NOZ, and hydrocarbons. For CO, the scavenging
mechanisms appear to be centered in the biosphere, although atmospheric
chemical reactions may also occur,
A typical research study in this transformation task program
the "mass balance" design in which the pollutant, e.g., SOZ' will
lowed through the atmospheric reaction processes--SOZ to HZS04 or
will be
be fol-
(NH3) SO
z 4
Z6
-------
to sulfate in rain--and the various reaction rates and other parameters
determined. Surface reactions and vegetation pickup can also be important.
The result will be a set of transformation submodels that provides a
technique to predict the atmospheric transformation of the major pollutants.
Precipitation is generally considered to be a major process bringing
about the removal of both gaseous and particulate material from the at-
mosphere. As such, it is a major scavenging process. However, this pol-
lutant scavenging can also have a major effect on the chemical content
of precipitation and through this on the regional environment. Recently
"acid rain" in Sweden received wide publicity, and it is likely that im-
portant changes in precipitation chemistry as a result of air pollutant
emissions also could occur in the United States. The RAPS program will
include a significant study of precipitation chemistry and its relation
to regional air pollution emissions, with the goal of obtaining quantita-
tive measures of the interaction between precipitation processes and pol-
lutant emissions.
Within an urban area that is adversely affected by air pollution,
visible pollutants from sources and as a general urban haze cloud are
probably a major public complaint. The particles that constitute this
visible urban pollution can come from two pollutant sources--from the
direct emission of solid and liquid particles such as dust, fly ash, fumes,
or smoke and from the formation of particles in the atmosphere as a re-
sult of reactions among various gaseous pollutant emissions. Photochem-
ical smog reactions in, the atmosphere constitute one source of the haze
that can afflict urban areas. Transformation of S02 into a sulfate aerosol
is considered to be another common source of urban haze.
In the RAPS program, a major effort will be directed toward finding
the reasons for the formation and dispersion of urban haze. The ultimate
goal beyond the RAPS program would be the development of means by which the
formation processes could be abated. While such an abatement goal could be
expected to require the reduction of source emissions, until the formation
process can be described, the specification of a source control program can
be little more than educated guess work.
The RAPS aerosol study program will include extensive sampling of
aerosol constituents and the characterization of size distribution. De-
tailed emission data will be available as will comprehensive information
on atmospheric chemical composition. Translation of these observational
results into a haze formation submodel will depend on relating these field
data to laboratory and theoretical studies of aerosol formation and the
development of rational hypotheses for urban haze formation. The solution
of urban pollution haze problem is probably the most difficult of the
several RAPS tasks. By contrast, it seems quite probable that the general
27
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public will consider it vital to find solutions to
urban haze formation before success can be claimed
lution control operation.
visible pollution and
for an urban air pol-
Human Social and Economic Factors
(300 Series)
In the decision-making processes used in formulating air pollution
control strategies, it is necessary to consider factors other than the
basic cause and effect relationship between sources and air quality, Hu-
man, social, and economic factors are involved, either directly, as when
they are manipulated to effect reduction of pollution, or indirectly, in
terms of the costs and benefits of control strategies. To provide a better
understanding of such factors, it is intended to take advantage of the
unique facility provided by the RAPS organization to collect relevant
data in an economical, well focussed manner.
Data would be acquired on both human and social factors (e.g., health,
population distribution, land use, and labor force characteristics) and
the economic aspects (i.e., the cost of air pollution and of control and
abatement procedures),
Particularly in connection with the source inventory surveys, it is
hoped to collect information (subject to legal and other constraints re-
garding privacy) that may contribute to a better assessment of the costs
entailed in staffing and operating control and abatement devices or in
the costs that result from modifications of the productivity of the plants
in question.
This element of the research plan would relate to the specific con-
ditions in a given study area and would be made available for studies
directly related to this area, The material acquired and the lessons
learned in collecting it also would be used to develop more generally
applicable information and methodologies in Task Area 400 described below,
which is concerned with the transfer of technology acquired in RAPS for
use in wider contexts.
RAPS Technology Transfer (400 Series)
It clearly is desirable that the knowledge and technology developed
in the RAPS program be made available for air pollution control purposes
as early and as effectively as possible,
28
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This requires passing on improvements and innovations in the tech-
niques of measurement, data handling, and utilization in a direct form.
It also entails conversion and distillation of the knowledge and tech-
nology developed in RAPS in the specific test region to a generalized form
so that it can be applied in other regions and for other problems with
minimum difficulty. Above all, this task provides the basis for the de-
velopment of improved control strategies, by national, state, and local
agencies.
The approach follows four main lines. The first approach is the
development and description of techniques and criteria by which the basic
air pollution factors can be assessed and monitored on an operational (as
distinct from research) basis. Particular attention will be given to
identifying and developing new techniques of monitoring atmospheric and
air quality conditions on extended scales appropriate to regional and sub-
regional control strategies so that the costs may be minimized. The use
of aircraft and remote probing techniques either from such aircraft or from
the surface are especially suited to this purpose, and every attempt should
be made to advance their applicability.
The second approach is the provision of tested, effective simulation
models suitable for other areas and conditions. The third approach is
the development of a methodology for assessing the validity (in terms of
confidence, accuracy, precision) of the preferred models for varying de-
grees of input data quality. The fourth approach is the provision of
methodologies for determining and assessing other factors such as health
effects and economic costs and benefits relevant to the formulation of
improved control strategies.
First priority will be to consider current data resources, deficient
though these may be, with emphasis on the optimum methods of providing
more complete data for input to models and for air quality monitoring
and model verification purposes. The needs of the states and local
authorities (and EPA) to improve and extend Implementation Plans will be
treated first, with concurrent though subordinate attention to environ-
mental impact statement requirements. The first milestone will be the
advancement of interim capabilities for these purposes. Thereafter, a
more complete and detailed facility will be developed, covering all as-
pects of control strategies formulation then current and capable of ex-
tension to other pollutants and so forth as the need arises.
29
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Schedules and Task Specifications for the Research Plan
Introduction
The following schedules and specifications show how the Research
Plan would be accomplished within the proposed 5-year period. They follow
a structure reflecting the principal objectives of the study. Thus, each
principal objective is approached within principal tasks numbered 100,
200, 300, and 400, respectively. Separate research tasks are assigned
numbers within the 100, 200, 300, and 400 series, and a further division
into subtasks is provided by adding numbers after the decimal point. For
example, Task 101 Boundary Layer Meteorology is a task within the 100
series which is concerned with Model Verification. (Task No. 100.)
Task 101.1 Area Climatology is an element of Task 101.
A task specification is given for each task, which states the objec-
tive and purposes and scope of the research element concerned. It is
intended that professional responsibility for each task be assigned to an
individual, who would be charged with accomplishing his task in terms of
its objective. The Principal Tasks 100, 200, 300, and 400 in fact would
be carried out by the senior personnel of the project as part of their
assigned responsibilities. However, the leaders of the subordinate tasks
and subtasks (e.g., 101 and 101.1) would be engaged in the day-to-day
accomplishment of the work specified, each task leader of a separate
task (e.g., 101) being, responsible for the product of the subtask leaders
(e.g., 101.1) and responsible to the principal task leader (e.g., 100).
Specifications for these tasks follow. Also presented are schedules
showing the general timing of the activity within the five-year period.
In both cases, the amount of effort that has been used as a basis for
planning and costing is indicated in terms of man-years of professional
and subprofessional effort.
30
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100 MODEL VERIFICATION
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
101 Boundary Layer Meteorology xx xxxx xxxx xxx x xxxx xx
(2.5 p)
101. 1 Area climatology xx xx..
( .5 p, .5 s)
101. 2 Prior diffusion data xx xx..
( .5 p, .5 s)
101. 3 Compilation and analysis .xxx xxxx xxxx xxx x xx
of upper air data
(2.1 p, 2.1 s)
101.4 Compilation and analysis .xxx xxx x xxxx xxxx xx
of near-surface data
(2.1 p, 2.1 s)
101. 5 Balloon-tracking experi- .xx.
ment
( .5 p, 1.5 s)
101. 6 Diffusion tracer experi- .xx.
ments
( .5 p, 1.5 s)
101. 7 Weather satellite appli- xxxx xx..
cations
(1. 5 p, .75 s)
101. 8 Forecast models . .xx xxxx xx
(2 p, 2 s)
Total effort
12.25 man-years--professional (p)
11.00 man-years--subprofessional (s)
31
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100 MODEL VERIFICATION (Continued)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
102 Emission Inventory xx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
(5 p)
102.1 Emission inventory design .x x...
(1 p, 1 s)
102.2 Collection of emission data xxxx xxxx (xxxx xxx x xx)
for stationary sources
(5.25 p, 5.25 s)
102.3 Collection of emission data .xx(x xxxx xxx x xxxx xx)
for mobile sources
( .5 p, 5.25 s)
102.4
Emission model for station-
ary sources
(1p,1s)
. xxx
xxxx
x.. .
102.5
Emission model for mobile
sources
. .xx
xxxx
xx. .
(1p,ls)
102.6
Emission source test
(6 p, 6 s)
. .xx
xxxx
xx(xx xxxx
xx)
102.7
Analysis of status of
source controls
(1. 25 p)
.xxx
102.8
Emissions inventory of agri-
cultural data sources
( .25 p, .25 s)
.xx.
Total effort
20.25 man-years--professional
19.75 man-years--subprofessional
32
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100 MODEL VERIFICATION (Continued)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
103 Air Quality Measurement xx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
(4.25 p)
103.1 Data base .x x...
( .25 p)
103.2 Air quality data from local .x xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
agencies
(1.18 p, 4.75 s)
103.3 Analysis of air quality and .x xxxx xxxx xxxx xxx x xx
meteorological data acquired
by RAPS
(4.5 p, 8.5 s)
103.4 Analysis of air quality . (xxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx)
data acquired by aircraft
(1.06 p, 2.1 s)
103.5 Fine scale spatial variation xxxx xx..
of air quality
( .75 p)
Total effort
12 man-years--professional
15.35 man years--subprofessional
33
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100 MODEL VERIFICATION (Concluded)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
104 Model Calculation and xx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
Verification
(2.5 p)
104.1 Evaluation of selected xx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
models
(30 p, 70 s)
104.2 Model modification and . .xx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
improvement
(2 p, 2 s)
104.3 Methodology for determining ...x xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
model accuracy
(1. 88 p)
104.4 On-site computation and data . .xx xxxx xxxx xxx x xx
display
(2 p)
Total effort
38.35 man-years--professional
72 man-years--subprofessional
34
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200 ATMOSPHERIC, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
201 Gaseous Chemical Processes xx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxx x xx
(5 p shared wi th 202)
201. 1 Hydrocarbon analyses and xxxx xxxx xxxx
monitoring
(2.06 p, 5.63 s)
201. 2 Development of hydrocarbon xx xxxx
classifier instrumentation
(1.38 p)
201. 3 Total aldehyde-formaldehyde xxxx xxxx xxxx
monitoring program
(.19 p, .31 s)
201. 4 Determination of peroxy- xxxx xxx x
acetyl nitrate
(.44 p, .75 s)
201. 5 Ammonia monit~ring program ...x xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
(1 p, 3.12 s)
201. 6 CO, S02' and N02 mass flux . .xx xxxx xxxx xx
measurements
(.81 p, .88 s)
201. 7 Origin of atmospheric CO . .xx xxxx xx
(106 p, .75 s)
201. 8 Atmospheric odor identifi- ...x xx
cation
( .75 p, 1 s)
Total effort
11.69 man-years--professional
12.45 man-years--subprofessional
35
-------
200 ATMOSPHERIC, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES (Continued)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
202 Atmospheric Aerosol Processes xx xxx x xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
(Shared with 201)
202.1 Determination of total xxxx
nitrate in aerosol samples
( .31 p, 1.5 s)
202.2 Determination of total sul- xxxx
fate in aerosol samples
(.31 p, 1.38 s)
202.3 Determination of aerosol xxxx xx..
size-distribution
(.69 p, 2.75 s)
202.4 The N02NaCl reaction in .xxx xxxx xxxx xx
aerosol
( .25 p, .13 s)
202.5 Isotope ratios of sulfate . .xx xxxx
aerosols
( .56 p, .75 s)
202.6 Organic compounds in partic- xxxx xx..
ulate material
( .75 p, .88 s)
202.7 Experimental measurements xxxx xx
of deposition velocity
( .56 p, 2.5 s)
Total effort
3.44 man-years--professional
9.87 man-years--subprofessional
36
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200 ATMOSPHERIC, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES (Continued)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
203 Other Pollutant Related Processes xx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xx
203.1 Radiation balance modifica- . .xx xxxx xxxx
tion
( .69 p, 1 s)
203.2 Visibility reduction in xxxx xxxx
urban and rural areas
( .69 p, 1 s)
203.3 Transport of atmospheric . .xx xx
odors
( .25 p, .25 s)
203.4 Trace metals and toxic trace xxxx xxxx
materials
(.69 p, 2.5 s)
203.5 Agricultural chemical dis- . .xx xxxx xx
tribution
( .25 p, .75 s')
203.6 Natural sources of air pol- xxxx xxxx xxxx
luted compounds
(1.13 p, .19 s)
Total effort
3.69 man-years--professional
5.69 man-years--subprofessional
37
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200 ATMOSPHERIC, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES (Continued)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
204 Atmospheric Scavenging by Pre-
cipitation
204.1 Instrument development for xx xxxx
pH and chemical sampling
(.50 p, .5 s)
204.2 Rainfall pH measurement xxxx xxx x xxxx xx
( .53 p)
204.3 Measurements of rainfall .xxx xxxx xxxx xx
chemistry
(.88 p, 5.25 s)
Total effort
1.90 man-years--professional
5.75 man-years--subprofessional
205 Air Pollutant Scavenging by the
Biosphere
205.1
Chemical content of vege-
tation
.xx.
. .xx
xxxx
(.5p,2s)
205.2
Atmospheric pollutant con-
centrations related to vege-
tation absorption
(.5 p, 1.5 s)
. .xx
xxxx
xx
Total effort
1 man-year--professional
3.5 man year--subprofessional
38
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200 ATMOSPHERIC, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES (Concluded)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
206 Atmospheric Processes
(1. 5 p, 3 s)
206.1 Source factors in pollutant . .xx xxxx xxxx xx..
dispersal
( .5 p)
206.2 Terrain and surface rough- .xxx
ness effects
( .38 p)
206.3 Extraregional and synoptic ...x xxxx xx..
scale circulation
( .75 p)
Total effort
3.12 man-years--professional
3 man-years--subprofessiona1
39
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300 HUMAN, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC FACTORS
1972
1973
1974
301 Human and Social Factors
301.1
301. 2
301. 3
Data on epidemiology and
health effects
(4.5 p, 4.5 s)
1975
1976
1977
Data on population and land-
use characteristics
Continuing low scale effort
Data on labor force utili-
zation
Total effort
4.5 man-year--professional
4.5 man-year--subprofessional
302 Economic Factors
302.1
302.2
303.3
Costs of inferior air
quality to industrial and
general population
(4.5 p, 4.5 s)
Costs of control strategies
Continuing low scale effort
Data collection surveys of
specific effects
Total effort
4.5 man-years--professional
4.5 man-years--subprofessional
40
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400 TRANSFER OF RAPS TECHNOLOGY FOR CONTROL AGENCY APPLICAT IONS AND THE
FORMULATION OF CONTROL STRATEGIES
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
401 Source Inventory Procedures
(1 p, 1 s)
401.1
Techniques for making
source inventory procedures
401. 2
Techniques for inventory
storage and retrieval
xx. .
xx
401. 3
Techniques for updating
the source inventory
401. 4
Relating source inventory
to control strategy
Total effort
1 man-year--professional
1 man-year-subprofessional
41
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400 TRANSFER OF RAPS TECHNOLOGY FOR CONTROL AGENCY APPLICATIONS AND THE
FORMULATION OF CONTROL STRATEGIES (Continued)
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
402 Atmospheric Monitoring
402.1 Basic network principles . .xx xx
( .5 p)
402.2 Criteria for organization xx.. xx
and maintenance of ob-
servational networks
( .5 p)
402.3 Station siting and instru- xxxx xxxx xx
ment exposure cr i teria
( .25 p)
402.4 Methodology for modern- xx.. xx
ization of monitoring
networks
( .25 p)
402.5 Evaluation of new aircraft . .xx (xxxx xxxx xxxx xx)
measurement techniques
(1.63 p)
402.6 Evaluation of remote mea sur- . .xx (xx xxxx xxxx xx)
ing techniques
(2.75 p, 3 s)
Total effort
5.89 man-years--professional
3 man-years-subprofessional
42
-------
400 TRANSFER OF RAPS TECHNOLOGY FOR CONTROL AGENCY APPLICATIONS AND THE
FORMULATION OF CONTROL STRATEGIES (Continued)
1972
1973
1974
1975
403 Data Handling
403.1
Optimize techniques for
data acquisition, storage,
and retrieval
( .5 p)
. .xx
Total effort
.5 man-year--professional
404 Modeling Technology
404.1
404.2
404.3
404.4
Significance of modeling to
the formation, of control
strategies and their
implementation
(2.25 p)
xx
xxxx
xxxx
xxxx
Implementation
cations
( . 75 p, . 75 s)
Plan appli-
xx. .
Environmental Impact
ment applications
( .75 p, .75 s)
State-
xx. .
Methodology for assessing
model validity in control
agency operations
( .75 p, .75 s)
Total effort
4.5 man-years--professional
2.25 man-years--subprofessional
43
1976
xxxx
. .xx
. .xx
1977
xx
xx
xx
xx
-------
400 TRANSFER OF RAPS TECHNOLOGY FOR CONTROL AGENCY APPLICATIONS AND THE
FORMULATION OF CONTROL STRATEGIES (Concluded)
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
405 Other Significant Factors in
Control Strategy Formulation
405.1
Liaison and interaction
with other environmental
research programs
405.2
Techniques of assessing
social and economic
factors
405.3
Methodology of assessing
operational costs of con-
trol strategies
Continuing low scale effort
405 .4
Methodology of assessing
resultant costs of con-
trol strategies
405.5
Institutional aspects
Total effort
4.5 man-year--professional
4.5 man-year--subprofessional
44
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100
Model Verification
Objective
The objective is to test, evaluate, and verify the capability
of mathematical simulation models to describe and predict the transport,
diffusion, and concentration of both inert and reactive pollutants over
a regional area.
Purpose and Scope
The purpose of this series is to investigate the performance of
a series of selected mathematical simulation models in circumstances such
that as many variables as possible are known. In this way the validity
of the model can be determined, or its deficiencies identified, and
methods of measuring input or verification data can be optimized for use
in subsequent operational applications. The program will investigate
emission source assessment, the modeling of admospheric physical and
chemical factors, and the methods of verifying and evaluating the opera-
tion of the models.
The approach follows two major lines. The first approach is
development of the most complete description possible of the meteorolog-
ical conditions, emissions, and air quality. The second approach applies
the appropriate input data to a series of selected models and examines
their product against observed data.
The selection of models will follow an evolutionary program,
starting with the models ready for immediate testing (FN). Where possible,
competing models will be applied to the same data sets. Subsequent tests
will be made of improvements of such models on an iterative basis, or in
combinations of the most successful features of such models. Major em-
phasis will be on models relating to the regional scale, but subscale
models will be treated in time. First priority will be given to the
development of useful tools for reviewing and assessing Implementation
Plans. The similar need for Environmental Impact Statements will be
given concurrent but subordinate attention. Subsequently, the aim will
be to provide fully tested optimum models, the performance of which can
be objectively assessed, at each scale for each main class of pollutants.
Consideration will also be given to the role of modeling in
connection with air pollution episode prediction.
45
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101
Boundary Layer Meteorology Program
Objective
The objective is to collect meteorological data on the parameters
that affect the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants in the St. Louis
region.
Purpose and Scope
The purpose of this task is to:
.
Provide the meteorological data that are required as inputs
to air quality simulation models.
.
Obtain data with which to evaluate model computations of
meteorological parameters.
.
Provide supplemental measurements of meteorological param-
eters for study of fundamental meteorological processes
for subsequent use in the revision of various model com-
ponents.
The program will commence with the collection of historical
climatological and experimental diffusion data for the St. Louis area.
Later, data from the various routine RAPS meteorological facilities will
be assembled and compiled in a meaningful format using standard metric
units; the routine facilities include the basic surface network and the
upper air (aircraft and balloon) systems. The program will also include
collection and compilation of data from special research programs.
102
Emission Inventory
Objective
The objective of this task is to develop and maintain a compre-
hensive source inventory.
Purpose and Scope
Numerous components of the Research Plan will require a complete
inventory of all emission sources in the study area. This will include
46
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both fixed and mobile sources of all major pollutants and perhaps selected
minor materials. Emission levels must be described for selected times
ranging from yearly to hourly intervals. The inventory should serve in
the validation of models, analysis of control strategies, and the investi-
gation of air quality impacts on the human, social, and economic systems
of the area.
103
Air Quality Measurement
Objective
The objective of this task is to provide as complete and detailed
a description as possible of the distribution (both in space and time) and
concentration of air pollutants in the St. Louis region.
Purpose and Scope
The purpose of this task is to provide the data on pollutant
distribution necessary for the verification of simulation models of
various scales (in space and time) and for various types of pollutant
(i.e., both reactive and nonreactive) and various types of source.
Data will be. obtained from past records, from routine measure-
ments already being made in the St. Louis area, and from the special
measurement networks of the RAPS facility.
104
Model Calculation and Verification
Objective
a series
are most
The objective of this task is to operate, evaluate, and modify
of air quality simulation models and identify the models that
suitable for use in formulating air pollution control strategies.
Purpose and Scope
Purposes of this task are to:
.
Provide evidence and information as to the effectiveness of
a series of selected candidate models so that optimum models
can be selected for each aspect of air pollution control.
47
-------
.
Develop techniques of categorizing models in terms of their
applicability in respect to both the temporal and spatial
resolution and the type or class of pollutants for which
they are appropriate.
200
Atmospheric, Chemical, and Biological Processes
Objective
The objective of this series of tasks is to develop an improved
understanding of the chemical, physical, and biological processes that
are entailed in determining the concentration (the dispersal) of pollu-
tants and the modification of air quality.
Purpose and Scope
Purposes of these tasks are to:
.
Investigate in a number of parallel programs the various
mechanisms entailed in the transport, transformation, and
removal of pollutants not now well understood.
.
Develop techniques of describing (or better describing)
mechanisms so that they can be accounted for in existing
models or models to be developed to accommodate them.
such
.
Identify conditions or processes that are significant in
formulating control and abatement strategies to provide air
quality amelioration.
The approach follows three major lines. The first approach is
the acquisition of a better quantitative knowledge of processes already
recognized as significant but that have not been adequately described
for modeling purposes. The second approach is development of a better
understanding of the significance of various processes in terms of ade-
quately modeling complex air quality factors. The third approach is
investigation of pollutants and pollutant processes that are not yet con-
sidered in control strategies, and assessment of their importance so that
appropriate strategies can be formulated.
48
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201
Gaseous Chemical Processes
Objective
The objective of this task is to develop an improved understand-
ing of the gaseous chemical processes that are important in determining
the concentrations of air pollutants and in the design and specifications
of simulation models dealing with the transport of gaseous pollutants.
Purpose and Scope
Purposes of these tasks are to:
.
Investigate through a number of discrete but interrelated
projects various mechanisms that are important in the trans-
formation and scavenging of gaseous air pollutants.
.
Carry out specific sampling programs designed to better
describe the concentration field of various important pol-
lutants that are not covered by the regular monitoring
system.
.
Develop special measurement techniques and automatic instru-
mentation that can be used to describe in more detail the
atmospheric concentration fields of specific air pollutants.
.
Relate the processes and conditions observed in the field
program to existing or potential simulation models and to
abatement strategies.
202
Atmospheric Aerosol Processes
Objective
The objective of this area of the program is to develop improved
understanding of, and expanded data on, the nature of atmospheric urban
aerosols and the processes that are important in determining (1) the
chemistry and concentrations of these materials and (2) the application
of this information in the design and specifications of simulation models
dealing with the transport and transformation of atmospheric aerosols.
49
-------
Purpose and Scope
The purposes of this task are to:
.
Investigate through a number of individual but interrelated
projects the various mechanisms that are important in the
formation, transformation, and scavenging of atmospheric
aerosol particles.
.
Carry out specific sampling programs designed to better
describe both the chemistry and concentration fields of
various atmospheric aerosols and to relate these measure-
ments to the routine measurements obtained by the regular
monitoring system.
.
Conduct a coordinated program of gaseous and particulate
sampling experiments with the goal of describing the specific
mechanisms by which atmospheric aerosol particles are formed
from gaseous contaminants.
.
Develop special measurement and instrumentation techniques
that through automatic operation can be used to describe in
more detail the atmospheric concentration fields of specific
particulate materials.
.
Relate the processes and conditions relative to the formation
and transport of atmospheric aerosols to existing and future
simulation models and to abatement strategies.
The individual projects within this program area fall into three
general categories: (1) special monitoring programs for specific aerosol
materials, including size distribution studies, aerosol chemistry, and
studies of the interaction of aerosols and gaseous contaminants; (2) de-
velopment of instrumentation and analytical techniques to improve the
effectiveness of aerosol monitoring programs and to provide the data
necessary for simulation modeling applications; and (3) special transport
and scavenging research studies aimed specifically at delineating atmo-
spheric processes that serve to determine the characteristics of atmospheric
aerosols in urban and rural areas.
For the most part, research in atmospheric aerosols is hampered
by the fact that relatively little automatic instrumentation can be used
to obtain detailed data on the chemical constituents that make up the
atmospheric mass. As a result, most of the programs are based on a
gathering of specific field samples followed by a period of laboratory
50
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analysis to determine the nature of the collected samples. This means
that the samples generally have poor time resolution because of the
length of time necessary to collect enough material for adequate analysis,
and because the number of samples that can be collected practically is
limited because of lack of available manpower and laboratory facilities.
If suggested instrumentation development is successful, some of these
problems may be ameliorated; however, since the suggested instrumentation
is not new but has been recognized for a number of years, a higher degree
of hope cannot be expressed for the successful resolution of this instru-
mentation design problem.
203
Other Pollutant Related Atmospheric Processes
Objective
The objective of this task is to develop an improved understand-
ing of a wide range of atmospheric processes that are important in under-
standing the transport, transformation, and final removal processes of
atmospheric pollutants.
Purpose and Scope
The researc~ effort will investigate through a number of indi-
vidual research projects various atmospheric processes and mechanisms that
are related to the understanding of pollutant distribution over an urban
and rural area. These atmospheric processes cover a range of applicable
conditions and have not been readily classifiable into other areas of
this research prospectus.
The individual research projects carried out within this
section, while dealing with specific and identifiable objectives, will
generally relate in some detail to one or more of the other research
projects described in other parts of this Prospectus.
204
Atmospheric Scavenging by Precipitation
Objective
The objective of this task is to develop an improved understand-
ing of the nature of precipitation scavenging of atmospheric pollutants
and to relate these processes to other environmental factors such as
water quality.
51
-------
Purpose and Scope
Purposes of this task are to:
.
Investigate through sampling and analytical projects the
extent and processes of precipitation scavenging of atmo-
spheric pollutants.
.
Relate the observed precipitation scavenging processes to
pollutant emissions and downwind pollutant concentration
patterns and to develop models by which the impact of pre-
cipitation scavenging can be included in simulation model-
ing of the transport and dispersion of atmospheric
pollutants.
.
Develop special instrumentation where necessary to sample
and analyze precipitation for scavenged air pollutants.
The individual projects within this program area include instru-
ment development and sampling programs directed toward the measurement
of precipitation chemistry. After analytical results are available, the
data will be related to air quality concentration patterns and to meteo-
rological conditions to develop a better understanding of the nature of
the precipitation scavenging process.
205
Air Pollutant Scavenging by the Biosphere
Objective
The objective of this task is to develop an improved understand-
ing of the relationship of the biosphere to air pollutant dispersion and
transport and in particular the effect that the biosphere has on the
scavenging of air pollutants from the atmosphere.
Purpose and Scope
Atmospheric transport and dispersion processes serve to bring
air pollutants in contact with large amounts of biological material, and
it is known that plants are effective absorbers of trace chemical materials
from the atmosphere. This program will conduct projects designed to pro-
vide quantitative estimates of the scavenging mechanisms that are effec-
tive within the biosphere in removing air pollutants from the atmosphere.
52
-------
The research effort also will relate the scavenging processes
observed in the field to existing or potentential simulation models and
to an evaluation of the interaction between air pollution and the bio-
sphere.
Purpose and Scope
During its life cycle, vegetation has a large intake of atmo-
spheric air and this forms a very large part of the plant life cycle.
During the intake of atmospheric air, pollutants are also brought into
the plant where they are retained; in addition, plant surfaces are ex-
posed to the flow of air, and as such they provide areas where pollutants
may be deposited or absorbed even though not being brought directly into
the plant tissues. These are loss mechanisms that in some cases have
been shown to be significant and to cause measurable changes in the
ground level concentrations of specific air pollutants. This research
project will attempt to quantify these absorption or removal mechanisms.
206
Atmospheric Processes
Objective
The objective of this task is to provide an additional under-
standing and description of physical atmospheric processes not already
accounted for in generalized boundary layer meteorological modeling.
Purpose and Scope
The research for this task will extend the capability of general
boundary layer theory to include anomalous physical factors of signif-
icance in the dispersal of pollutants. These factors include smaller
scale phenomena, such as the effects of special emission conditions
(i.e., at the stack) on the behavior of effluent plumes, or the local
variation of surface roughness (i.e., different terrain or land use con-
ditions) on air flow--or larger scale phenomena, such as the influence
of extraregional features or synoptic scale circulations on the air flow
characteristics within the Region.
Inputs will be obtained from other ongoing research programs
or from special studies conducted within the RAPS program. Consideration
will be given to conducting physical modeling studies in the laboratory
where appropriate.
53
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300
Human, Social,
and Economic Factors
Objective
The objective of the tasks in this series is to develop a better
understanding of factors of significance to the design of improved con-
trol strategies in the urban/rural complex, including health and economic
effects and the role of land use and community planning.
Purpose and Scope
Purposes of this research program are to take advantage of the
unique facility the RAPS organization provides to collect data on human,
social, and economic factors in an economical and well focused manner to
complement the purely physical aspects of RAPS, for the subsequent for-
mulation of improved control strategies. The data will provide the addi-
tional basis that will be needed to apply the lessons learned in the RAPS
in improved control strategies that are effective and acceptable in terms
of priorities, costs of implementation, and value of results.
The resources of field teams, data analysts, and data processing
facilities will be made available to collect human, social, and economic
data identified as significant to the purpose noted. Data will be col-
lected either by adding elements to other data collection surveys or by
initiating special surveys. Steps will be taken to ensure that the data
are compatible with the physical data collected so that interpretation
and evaluation of the data on effects will be facilitated.
301
Human and Social Factors
Objective
The objective of this task is
information on human and social factors
developing methodologies for using such
to provide a data base of relevant
that can be used in RAPS and in
data in other areas.
Purpose and Scope
Purposes of the task are to:
.
Take advantage of the data handling and analysis capabilities
of a RAPS organization to gather data on epidemiology, mor-
tality, and the like.
54
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.
Determine population concentrations and land use character-
istics.
.
Provide information on the utilization of the labor force
and its skills and mobility.
302
Economic Factors
Objective
The objective of this economic research is to provide a data
base of relevant information on economic factors that can be used in RAPS
and in developing methodologies for using such data in other areas.
Purpose and Scope
The purpose of the task is to take advantage of the data handling
and analysis capabilities of the RAPS organization to gather data on the
various costs of air pollution to the industrial and general population
(e.g., depression of property values, damage to property, loss of produc-
tivity due to sickness) and also the cost of air pollution control strat-
egies, in terms of both plant modification and increased costs of pro-
duction.
400 Transfer of RAPS Technology for Control Agency Applica-
tions and the Formulation of Control Strategies
Objective
The objective of this series of tasks and supplies is to develop
improved technology that can be applied in local and regional control
agency operations, including techniques for emission inventories, air
quality and meteorological measurement, data handling and analysis, and
the objective assessment of control strategy effectiveness.
Purpose and Scope
The purpose of this research area is to ensure that the knowl-
edge and technology developed in the RAPS is transferred widely to the
air pollution control community at large as early and effectively as
possible. This requires passing on improvements and innovations in the
55
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techniques of measurement, data handling, utilization in a direct form.
It also includes the conversion and distillation of the knowledge and
technology developed in RAPS in the specific test region to a generalized
form, so that it can be applied in other regions and for other problems
with minimum difficulty. Above all, however, this task provides the
basis for the development of improved control strategies, by national,
state and local agencies.
The approach follows four major lines. The first approach is
development and description of techniques and criteria by which the basic
air pollution factors can be assessed and monitored on an operational
(as distinct from research) basis. Particular attention will be given
to identifying and developing new techniques of monitoring atmospheric
and air quality conditions on extended scales appropriate to regional
and subregional control strategies so that the costs may be minimized.
The use of aircraft and remote probing techniques either from such air-
craft, or from the surface are especially suited to this purpose and
every attempt should be made to advance their applicability.
The second approach is the provision of tested, effective
simulation models, suitable for operational use on a generalized basis
(that can be readily modified and adapted), for other areas and conditions.
The third approach is development of a methodology for assessing the
validity (in terms of confidence, accuracy, and precision) of the pre-
ferred models, for va~ying degrees of input data quality. The fourth
approach is to provide methodologies for determining and assessing other
factors such as health effects and economic costs and benefits relevant
to the formulation of improved control strategies.
First priority will be to provide data applicable to current
data resources, deficient though these may be, with emphasis on the optimum
methods of providing more complete data for input to models and for air
quality monitoring and model verification purposes. The needs of the
states and local authorities (and EPA) to improve and extend Implementa-
tion Plans will be treated first, with concurrent although subordinate
attention to Environmental Impact Statement requirements. First mile-
stone will be the achievement of interim capabilities for these purposes.
Thereafter, a more complete and detailed facility will be developed,
covering all aspects of control strategies formulation then current and
capable of extension to other pollutants and the like as the need arises.
56
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401
Source Inventory Procedures
Objective
The objective of the task is to provide
development and maintenance of source inventories
experience in the Regional Study.
guidelines for the
as derived from the
Purpose and Scope
The source inventory for the Regional Study is likely to be
the most comprehensive such inventory yet developed. The methods by which
the source data are acquired and updated, and the manner in which the in-
ventory is organized, stored, and retrieved should prove to be of consider-
able value to others faced with the task of preparing sources inventories.
Accordingly, this component of the Research Plan includes efforts required
to prepare guidelines and reports for the benefit of others, covering the
techniques developed in the Regional Study for the management and use of
source inventories.
402
Atmospheric Monitoring
Objective
The objective
technique of monitoring
scales, so that control
of this task is to improve the technology and
atmospheric conditions, particularly on extended
strategies can be better implemented.
Purpose and Scope
The purpose of this task is to make available for use in all
types of air pollution control operations as early as possible, the
lessons learned and the techniques developed in the RAPS.
Basic principles for designing measurement networks for control
agency operation and criteria for the siting of monitoring stations and
instrument exposure, will be developed on the basis of experience with
the RAPS data collection network.
Criteria for the organization and maintenance of extended net-
works of measuring instruments, with special reference to calibration
and standardization, will be established. This research effort also
57
-------
will develop a methodology by which newly acquired data, using new tech-
niques, can be related to older data so that the value of the latter is
fully realized, even if strict continuity is not maintained.
Remote probing systems will be tested and evaluated, in com-
parative trials as candidate systems become available. Such tests will
be conducted in conjunction with both the standard RAPS data collection
system and special programs that provide especially detailed knowledge
of meteorological conditions or the concentration of pollutants.
In particular, use will be made of helicopter soundings and
other aircraft acquired data. The application of remote probing tech-
niques from aircraft, as well as of aircraft in situ measuring techniques,
is an additional and important study subject.
403
Data Handling
Objective
The objective of the data output task is to develop optimum
techniques for acquiring, storing, and retrieving data on an extended
scale for use in air pollution control agency operations.
Purpose and Scope
The purposes of the task are to:
.
Make available the lessons learned and techniques developed
in RAPS regarding the handling of all types of data collected
and used in an extensive monitoring network and emission
inventory.
.
Develop and publish Standard formats as used in RAPS that
are suitable for general use.
.
Develop and publish
major types of data
able for use in air
manuals and computer programs for all
collection and initial processing, suit-
pollution control agency use.
.
Provide guidelines on quality control procedures for use
in collecting data.
58
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404
Modeling Technology
Objective
The objective of this task is to provide the best available
modeling capability for use in operation in air quality management.
Purpose and Scope
The purpose of this task is to extract from the research and
experience of RAPS a number of models that have been tried and demonstrated
and to show how these can be adapted and used for a range of specific
operational requirements in an optimum fashion.
A most important major task is to evaluate the significance of
modeling techniques to the formulation of control strategies and their
implementation. This entails an assessment of the accuracy and precision
of the models output as a function of the degree of completeness of the
input. Given that the resources for data collection and monitoring in
the general case will be far less complete than those for RAPS, it will
be necessary to analyze the way in which limitations of the input can
compromise the output of the models. Any shortcomings or uncertainties
of the predictions derived from the models must be fully assessed and
understood in terms of, the control strategies based on them--especially
where such strategies have significant economic or social impacts.
In addition to models suited to regional areas in general for
the range of significant pollutants, special attention must be paid to
providing suitable models for use in formulating or checking Implementa-
tion Plans, as well as for use in Environmental Impact Statements, and
the requirements of air pollution episode prediction.
For all these purposes it will be necessary to:
(1)
Select and publish a series of models relating
priate scales or pollutants in a form in which
be readily applied in an operational role.
to appro-
they can
(2)
Develop and provide a methodology for assessing the
sensitivity of such models to practical limitations--
such as the quantity or quality of input data, and
qualifying topographical features.
59
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(3 )
Develop and
accuracy of
existing or
measurement
provide a methodology for measuring the
predictions based on such models, using either
specially provided (but limited) additional
facilities.
In general the detailed tasks, covered within the 404 series
are scheduled well along in the Research Plan at a relatively low level
of effort. Accordingly, their ultimate detailed content tends to be
somewhat more speculative than tasks presented elsewhere in the Research
Plan, so that presentation of their content in detail does not appear
warranted at this early time.
405 Other Significant Factors in Control Strategy
Formulation
Objective
The objective of the other tasks concerned with strategy formu-
lation is to ensure that all knowledge and experience acquired under the
RAPS program is made available for use by the air pollution control com-
munity in general and those concerned with formulating improved control
strategies in particular.
Purpose
The purpose of these other efforts is to take care that both
during the RAPS program and at its conclusion, fullest advantage is taken
of other research in progress (both by EPA and other agencies) and also
that the products of RAPS not directly connected with its principal ob-
jectives nevertheless are made available in appropriate form to potential
users. Five principal components are involved.
(1 )
Liaison and interaction will be required with other re-
search programs, both inside EPA and in other agencies,
particularly those being carried out in the St. Louis
area, such as METROMEX.
(2 )
Techniques should be developed
social and economic factors in
tion, using as a base the data
to assess and evaluate
control strategy formula-
collected in 302 and 302.
(3 )
A methodology for assessing operational costs of control
strategies should be developed for use in areas where avail.
able data are less complete than in the RAPS area.
60
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(4 )
Similarly, the development of a methodology for
the resultant costs in terms of lost production
creased production costs of proposed strategies
appropriate.
assessing
and in-
will be
(5 )
Investigations on the basis of study and experience in
the St. Louis region should be carried forward to identify
the interaction of local government and other institutional
aspects that are relevant to the formulation of effective
control strategies and their enforcement.
In general the detailed tasks, covered within the 405 series
are scheduled well along in the Research Plan at a relatively low level
of effort. Accordingly, their ultimate detailed content tends to be
somewhat more speculative than tasks presented elsewhere in the Research
Plan so that presentation of their content in detail does not appear
warranted.
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VI
THE FACILITY
Rationale
Basic Operations
Since the RAPS research and development program is planned as a
five year integrated operation, it is discussed in this chapter in terms
of a general time sequence of project initiation. As a point of departure,
it is assumed that the total RAPS program will be initiated in July 1972
and that research operations can be started at this time.
The RAPS program is such that two types of field operations are
necessary. One type of field operation is the research expedition, char-
acterized by the fact that it has a limited or single objective and re-
quires relatively short periods of field operation for data acquisition.
The second type of field operation is the ongoing research study, charact-
erized by a need for routine data acquisition over an extended period of
time. The four basic RAPS task areas include projects in both field
operational categories; however, since the provision of a data acquisition
network for routine, ongoing research operations results in a major in-
vestment of both funds and personnel, the needs for such an investment
will be examined.
Basis for Monitoring Network
A major objective of the RAPS program is the verification and evalu-
ation of simulation modeling techniques. To fulfill the RAPS goals, this
verification process must include much more than a statistical comparison
of observed and model-predicted pollutant concentrations in the area
around a source region. The RAPS program must also provide the opportunity
to evaluate separately the several submodel routines that are component
parts of all simulation modeling systems. The comparison of the submodel
routines, e.g., the transport wind direction field, with the actual con-
ditions prevailing during the verification test operation, will permit the
identification of specific weaknesses in the simulation programs and
procedures. Follow-up research leading to modifications in the simulation
procedures can then be conducted to improve and extend the candidate
simulation techniques,
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This necessity to be able to understand why a candidate simulation
model produces a given result requires detailed knowledge of the metero-
logical, air quality, and emission fields in the test area. One way to
obtain detailed meteorological and air quality data is through establish-
ment of a comprehensive network of observational stations throughout the
verification test area. Verification and data acquisition studies carried
out to date usually have been limited either by having to use existing
monitoring network data where the network had not been established to
meet the needs of a verification program or by establishment of a special
test program where funding and other practical problems limited the amount
and time-span of the data acquisition program.
Since the objective of the RAPS program is the verification of a
variety of current and future candidate model systems, it cannot be
adequately carried out if the verification data acquisition system is not
geared specifically to the range of verification problems that the RAPS
program is expected to solve. Thus the RAPS verification data acquisition
system must: (1) include detailed meteorological and air quality measure-
ments, (Z) give adequate coverage over distances of up to 150 km from the
source area, and (3) provide these data on average ambient conditions for
periods as short as one hour and as long as one year. In this context,
detailed air quality data include ambient air concentration information
for pollutants that are covered by current and proposed air quality
criteria, including but not limited to SOZ' Co, No, NOZ' oxidants, hydro-
carbons, suspended particles, lead aerosols, and fluorides, because model
verification studies are expected to be concerned with these individual
pollutants.
When all these factors are considered, the installation of a sophis-
ticated monitoring system is the optimum way to meet the needs of the
RAPS model verification program for regionwide air quality and meteoro-
logical data.
The RAPS program also is directed toward providing new data and an
improved understanding of atmospheric chemical reactions, pollutant
scavenging, and other atmospheric processes. Such a goal also requires
a basic foundation of detailed data on atmospheric pollutant concentrations
that a monitoring system can provide most effectively. The needs of this
program are generally parallel to the basic components needed for the
model verification program. The planned monitoring system design incor-
porates some components and design features that are specifically directed
toward supporting chemical transformation studies and scavenging projects.
able
ment
The RAPS program is also specifically charged with improving avail-
technology in the area of air monitoring networks through the develop-
of optimum designs and operational techniques.
64
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Thus establishment of an air quality and meteorological monitoring
network is justified on the basis of the requirements that have been
placed on the RAPS program in the areas of air pollution simulation model
verification, atmospheric transformation processes, and improved control
agency technolgoy. Because of the area to be covered and the number of
variables that are to be monitored, a telemetering, computer-controlled
network has been designed for this RAPS program. Instrumentation com-
ponents are, in general, the newer designs now being specified for local
and regional use, although they have not generally been placed into
general service by local control agencies. The proposed research program
is based on the monitoring network being operational about 18 months
after the RAPS program is initiated.
The special objective, expedition-type, data acquisition program can
be fairly closely specified--both in terms of the type and nature of the
data collected and the periods over which such data are needed. The more
general, comprehensive data collection program, designed to meet the
known, anticipated, or potential requirements of a number of studies,
cannot be so closely specified. In proposing to maintain a continuous
data collection facility to meet the general need, it is recognized that
a danger exists accumulating large masses of data that could have little
or no use; therefore, great care must be taken in setting up the general
data acquisition program to avoid wasted costs and dissipated effort.
However, some redundancy is both inevitable and desirable in a data
acquisition program of. this type.
To ensure that adequate data are available for investigations that
cannot be defined a priori or to be sure that no data of a specific type
are missed or imperfectly collected, it will be necessary to make extensive
and continuous collections that will include some material that may be used
quite infrequently; their importance in aChieving the program objective
may nonetheless be great. This principle is well recognized in many
observational activities--especially where weather is involved. With
modern data acquisition and processing systems, however, the unit cost of
collecting additional data decreases rapidly once the initial investment
in equipment and in setting up procedures has been made. Indeed, if data
are to be collected at successive times throughout the year, even if
considerable intervals can be anticipated, it is almost certain that
little or no saving in overall costs could be made by operating inter-
mittently, since the costs of shutting down and opening up would outweigh
any minor savings by not running continuously on a routine basis.
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The St. Louis Regional Monitoring Network
The St. Louis facility is conceived as consisting of a system of
air quality and meteorological instrument stations established within an
area roughly enclosed by a circle of 100-km radius with the St. Louis
arch as its center. A central support facility is also planned that in-
cludes data-handling and processing equipment, office and laboratory space
and repair and maintenance shops. Most instrument stations are expected
to be linked to the central facility by telephone circuits to permit
automated remote data recording at the central facility.
The St. Louis facility is planned as the basic instrument system of
the Regional Study. It could be operated in a fully continuous or
part-time mode to develop a comprehensive data base of air quality and
meteorological conditions. Detailed statistical and other analyses then
could be performed as required by the various elements of the Research
Plan. During the field studies and data-acquisition efforts covered in
the Research Plan, the facility would be operated to support these efforts
most effectively. Support could include equipping the instrument stations
with additional instruments, locating transportable stations as specified
by the research group, preparing and operating specialized data processing
programs, and providing instrument and experimental technician support.
Six types or classes of instrument stations are included in the
facility. These range, from the permanently installed Class Al stations
with 3D-meter instrument towers equipped with a full complement of air
quality and meteorological instruments to the trailer-mounted Class C2
stations having no air quality instruments and a single meteorological
instrument. The principal characteristics of the stations are summarized
in Table 1.
Stations of Classes Al, A2, and Bl are visualized throughout the
Regional Study as permanently sited, although this is certainly not a
fixed requirement. These stations are considered the basic units for the
long term observational program. The Class B2 stations have the same
instrument complement as the Class Bl stations, but they are transportable
units housed in trailers. The Class Cl stations are denoted as trans-
portable units since a trailer is used for instrument installation.
However, the fact that the station is equipped with a 3D-meter tower; sug-
gests less frequent movement than the other transportable stations.
The Class C2 stations are a hybrid unit. As part of the central
facility they include the trailer unit, tower, and digital data terminal
equipment. They will be used by the various groups carrying out field
experiments and data-gathering efforts associated with the various research
efforts presented in Part II. Additional instrumentation required at a
66
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Tab Ie I
CLASSIFICATION OF THE REGIONAL STUDY
INSTRUMENT STATIONS
Class of Station
A
I
A
2
B
I
B2
C
I
C
2
Number of Instruments
Air quality instruments
Carbon monoxide
methane
hydrocarbon
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1
2 2 2 2
Hydrogen sulfide-sulfur dioxide
Total sulfur
Ozone
Nitrous oxide - oxides of nitrogen
Nephelometer
Carbon monoxide
(NDIR )
Hi -vol sampl er
~!et eorol ogi ca 1 i nst rument s
Pressure transducer
1 1 1
3 3 1 1 3 1
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
Station Characteristics
Temperature
Wind direction and speed
Pyranometer
~!ercury baromet er
Net radiometer
Dew point hygrometer
Rain - snow gauge
Tower height
30-meter
x
x
x
lO-meter
'{
x
x
Data recording
Remote
x
'(
x
x
Local
x
x
~!obi 1 i ty
Fixed
Total quantities
x x x
x x x
9 8 24 8 4 24
67
Transportable
-------
Class C2 station in support of these field efforts would be considered
a part of the particular research effort rather than of the St. Louis
facility. Accordingly, the instrumentation of the Class C2 stations
would be expected to vary widely during the Regional Study. This same
concept would also apply to instruments added to other classes of stations
set up in support of field activities~
Data acquisition and handling in the St. Louis facility are expected
to be automated to the greatest possible extent. Instrument observations
at all but the Class Cl and C2 stations are planned to be transmitted by
telephone circuits to the central facility for automatic computer-
controlled recording. The Class Cl and C2 stations are currently planned
to have local data-recording facilities, but further analysis might in-
deed indicate these also could use a remote reporting capability efficiently,
The digital data terminal equipment of the remotely reporting in-
strument stations interrogates each air quality and meteorological instru-
ment at a predetermined frequency, converts the analog instrument output
to its digital equivalent, and stores the digital data in a relatively
small-capacity magnetic core memory. On command from the central facility,
expected to occur at about 15-minute intervals for each station, the
stored data are automatically transmitted to the central facility.
Calibration curves of all instruments are stored in the data-processing
system at the central facility so that immediate conversion is made from
the digital data format to engineering units for ~rchiving.
Each air quality and meteorological instrumen~ would be equipped
with a solid-state, nonerasable memory unit to serve as an identifier of
each instrument. A unique serial number, or equivalent, of each instru-
ment would be coded into the identifier with the identifier then mounted
on the instrument. At each interrogation of each instrument, the identi-
fier would respond immediately before or after the instrument reading was
acquired so that the instrument reading and its identification would always
be together. This procedure should result in an absolute minimum of data
ambiguity and erroneous interpretation and is judged to be far superior
to customary procedures using instrument log books and other manual methods.
The principal data-handling and processing function at the central
facility would include the recording and archiving of all instrument
station data and other field and experiment information. The archival
tapes would be forwarded to Research Triangle Park or other EPA installa-
tions as appropriate or to conTractors for use in their analyses on a
particular research project. Minimal detailed data analysis is expected
to be carried out at the St. Louis facility, and t~e electronic data-
processing equipment lS sized accordingly. Selected research experiments
68
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may require limited data processing during their execution, and the
St. Louis facility should have the required capability. But large scale
data processing covering data acquired over a period, say, of the spring
and summer seasons would be expected to be undertaken on the larger computer
systems existing at the Research Triangle Park and elsewhere.
The instrument stations constituting the St. Louis facility are
planned to be located within a circle of about a 100-km radius centered
generally on the St. Louis arch. Eight Class A stations are symmetrically
located around the 100-km circle, while an additional eight are symmetrically
deployed on a 40-km square with the arch as its center. The final Class
A station is planned at the arch itself. Depending on actual conditions
at the arch site, advantage might well be taken of nearby taller television
or other towers.
The Class B1 stations are planned for installation on a uniform
square grid about the arch with station spacings of about 12 km.
The remaining stations are considered to be transportable and would
be deployed as required to support a given field data-acquisition program.
This is particularly true for the Class C2 stations. The stations other
than the Class C2 would generally be expected to provide the overall or
ambient observations of air quality, meteorological, and other parameters
of interest on an areawide basis. Observations in detail within a specific
smaller area would be carried out by deployment of the Class C2 stations
within the area of interest.
Since the precise station locations will depend on the availability
of suitable sites, the pattern presented here must be regarded as tenta-
tive. Instrument station sites must be selected with respect to several
important factors, including freedom from unique or overriding micro-
meteorological effects, general absence of nearby significant pollutant
sources, convenient access to electric power and communication utility
services, and free access at all times. Only a detailed field survey will
reveal sites possessing these and other necessary characteristics.
In addition to the routine surface-based data acquisition network,
upper air measurements of meteorological and air quality parameters will
be undertaken both on a routine and special task basis. The primary
meteorological system will use METRAC or an equivalent precision automated
balloon-tracking system. With METRAC, it is proposed that vertical sound-
ings of wind, temperature, and possibly humidity, pressure, and/or net
radiation be made at a four- to six-hour interval at a minimum of two
stations (typically urban and rural). The system has the capability to
track simultaneously Mp to six different balloons (both vertically-rising
and constant-level) providing detailed wind information and data from four
69
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different sensors on each balloon. As such, it can also support a variety
of special purpose programs. Air quality data will be obtained on a
regular basis through the use of a helicopter monitoring system. Flights
will be made on two or three days per week with two (three-hour) flights
each day. In addition to the air quality observations, supplemental
meteorological data, such as radiation measurements, will also be made.
Fixed-wing aircraft are recommended for use only on a nonroutine basis
and in support of special-task programs.
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VII
1!ANAGEME:t'-.'T A::ID SCHEDULING
Introduction
The Regional Study will constitute the largest and most comprehensive
scientific investigation and analysis of the phenomenology of air quality
and pollution yet undertaken. Field data describing air quality, mete-
orology, and other pertinent factors will be obtained by an instrument
and data processing system unprecedented in the study of air pollutants.
This critically important effort will require the most careful planning
and management both before and during its execution to ensure effective
utilization of the facilities and personnel assigned to the Regional
Study and the most appropriate expenditure of funds.
This chapter of Part I presents findings largely applicable to
scheduling, management, and staffing of the St. Louis facility. It is
certain that the scope of the Regional Study is such that continual
review and modification will be required of all the estimated schedules,
costs, and other factors presented in this Prospectus. This tends to be
of particular importance in regard to the estimated activation schedule,
since many policy and design considerations are present, not all of which
can be anticipated or evaluated at this time. Moreover, several important
aspects of the schedule and perhaps certain costs will depend on the
actual conditions found to exist in St. Louis after authorization of the
Regional Study. Accordingly, the planning factors presented are regarded
as having an accuracy and reliability suitable for the planning purposes
of this Prospectus and for the purpose of providing a working format for
additional and more detailed planning efforts.
Facility Activation Schedule
The activation schedule of the St. Louis facility is viewed as
having three principal components. The first covers the design, instal-
lation, and shakedown and acceptance of two prototype instrument stations.
The second includes the activation of all Class A and B stations. The
third provides for completion of the Class C stations.
71
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The overall schedule adopted for the St. Louis facility activation
will depend on a number of critical factors. These include the urgency
for initiation of the research experiments requiring the full instrument
system and the magnitude of funds allocated for the Regional Study.
Also, a number of alternative methods or rationales may be used to de-
velop the geographical pattern of station location. In one case all
stations could be installed in a continuous sequential schedule on the
basis of currently available emission source data and air quality and
meteorological information. In the other case, stations might be in-
stalled at a far lower rate, so that the first group of stations would
be allowed to acquire significant air quality and meteorogical data from
which possible guidance would be derived for the second group, and so on.
The basic concepts of scheduling under each procedure should be essentially
the same; the continuous schedule has been selected for purposes here.
The design installation, and operational acceptance tests of the
instrument prototype stations is estimated to require on balance about
44 weeks. The critical path through the scheduling network consists
almost exclusively of the digial data terminal equipment. This situation
is caused primarily by the fact that all air quality and meteorological
instruments are considered to be standard catalogue items with relatively
short procurement times, whereas the digital data terminal equipment con-
sists of a combination of standard and specially designed equipment. The
latter group of digital data equipment causes much of the length of the
critical path, especially when combined with the design decisions asso-
ciated with the telephone communication system design.
Two alternatives have been identified for scheduling the activation
of all Class A and B stations. One alternative is to delay all activa-
tion until the prototype station has been thoroughly tested and all com-
ponents have been accepted. Scheduling on this basis is estimated to
require an additional 33 weeks for final station completion, or 77 weeks
for full activation of the St. Louis facility.
The other alternative is to initiate activation before prototype
station acceptance. In this case, activation could be started at the
end of the acceptance tests of the prototype station air quality instru-
ments, which is estimated to occur 23 weeks after authorization of the
Regional Study. Since, as noted above, the prototype station critical
path is estimated at 44 weeks, initiation of system activation after
prototype operation of the air quality instruments is likely to achieve
considerable economies in time. Such overlapping is estimated to bring
full system operation 18 weeks earlier than the former schedule, with
completion at 59 weeks.
72
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Moderate risk is estimated to exist in continuing station activation
without full completion of the prototype stations. This risk arises with
the design of the equipment linking the meteorological and air quality
instruments with the bulk of the digital data equipment. However, in
view of the inherent flexibility of digital data circuitry designs and
equipment, any incompatibilities revealed in prototype station design
undoubtedly can be corrected in the digital data equipment before instal-
lation in the remaining stations.
The Class C station essentially can be scheduled independently of
the other stations, since their digital data terminal equipment provides
for local rather than remote recording. The Research Plan indicates a
need for approximately ten Class C stations about eight months after
2
authorization of the Regional Study with the remainder following soon
thereafter. Accordingly, initiation of the digital data equipment pro-
curement cycle can be initiated ten weeks after authorization with station
activation beginning 12 weeks later. At an activation rate of one per
week, all stations will be completed in 51 weeks after authorization with
the first ten available 33 weeks after authorization.
These activation schedules are based on the assumption that the
central facility and all instrument stations sites have been acquired
before the time of scheduled station activation. This is regarded as a
most critical assumption, and the lack of instrument sites could indeed
cause serious delay in, system activation. Immediate field survey ini-
tiation following authorization of the Regional Study and preferably
before, appears essential to permit station activation to proceed on
schedule.
Permanent Management and Staffing
Of the 54 permanent personnel assigned to the Regional Study, nine
are estimated to be located at Research Triangle Park and 45 in St. Louis.
The organizational structure is summarized in Figure 5.
The significance of the Regional Study is such that the establishment
of the position of Deputy Director for Regional Studies appears appropriate
The Deputy Director will report directly to the Director, National En-
vironmental Research Center, Research Triangle Park. The Deputy Director
will be supported by three staff groups as follows.
.
Office of Programs--This Office will provide EPA coordination,
budgeting, and planning support throughout the study. A minimum
of two profes~ionals are estimated to be required.
73
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"
>I:>
DIRECTOR,
NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL
RESEARCH CENTER
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK
DEPUTY DIRECTOR
FOR
REGIONAL STUDIES
INTERAGENCY COORDINATION COMMITTEE EPA ADVISORY COMMITTEE
EPA, Hq. METEOROLOGY
NOAA PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY
AEC ATMOSPHERIC SURVEILLANCE
DOD EFFECTS RESEARCH
NRC ADMINISTRATORS REGION V AND VII
NSF/NCAR OFFICE OF AIR PROGRAMS
r I
RESEARCH TRIANGLE ST. LOUIS
PARK STAFF FACILITY STAFF
SA-1365-13
FIGURE 5
SUMMARY ORGANIZATION OF THE REGIONAL STUDY
-------
.
Office of Interagency Coordination and Technology Transfer--This
Office will be charged with providing full coordination among all
agencies dealing with problems of air pollution. The broad scope
of the Regional Study is such that programs of other organizations
and agencies will be continually monitored to determine possible
interfacing points, cooperative ventures, and other modes of joint
operation. Conversely, the Office will have the principal task
of advising other agencies of the programs planned for the Regional
Study to again promote full cooperation. The Office will have the
additional responsibility of continual review of findings developed
in the Regional Study for application to other areas and experi-
mental efforts. The Office is estimated to require one profes-
sional in the early phase of RAPS, increasing to three professionals
after the first year-
.
Office of Research Operations--This Office is expected to provide
the very important technical link between the research divisions
at Research Triangle Park and the St. Louis facility. The Office
would consist of at least one representative from each division
but would remain administratively within the division. The chief
responsibility of each representative would be to organize and
supervise the research programs within his division that will
make use of the St. Louis facility. He will be responsible for
data acquisition quality control, as well as for execution of the
subsequent analysis. Three professionals are estimated to be re-
quired in this Office in addition to the Division representatives.
The St. Louis staff will be largely responsibile for the operation
of the facility and support of the field research experimental effort.
The staff consists of nine professionals and 36 nonprofessionals with 17
of the nonprofessionals engaged in instrument station maintenance and
calibration. The professional staff includes the following:
.
Facility Director--The facility director will be responsible for
all St. Louis operations, reporting to the Deputy Director for
Regional Studies.
.
Research Coordinator--The research coordinator provides all
logistic and facility support to special research groups carrying
out field data gathering programs.
.
Instrument Engineer--Two engineers are estimated for system
operation, maintenance, and modification during the five-year
program.
75
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.
Meteorologist--Two meteorologists are estimated to be required to
provide sustained analysis of meteorological conditions in the
St. Louis area and direct support to field groups for specific
purposes.
.
Computer System Engineer--One engineer is estimated to be re-
quired for supervision of data handling and recording procedures,
special computer program preparation, and related duties.
Control Engineer--The control engineer will be responsible for
development and maintenance of the St. Louis emission inventory.
.
Effects Research--An on-site professional is estimated to be
required to provide direct support for all effects research in
the St. Louis area; he will arrange for acquisition of all per-
tinent local data necessary for the program.
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VIII COST SU~WARY
Permanent Facilities and Staff
Initial costs of the St. Louis facility have been estimated at about
$3.94 million. This includes all instrument stations, the central facil-
ity, and other equipment estimated to be required. These initial costs
are sununarized in Table 2.
Table 2
ESTIMATED INITIAL COSTS OF THE ST. LOUIS
FACILITY BY PRINCIPAL INSTALLATION
(Thousands of Dollars)
Instrument Stations
A1
A
2
B
1
B
2
C
1
C
2
Subtotal
$
771.3
625.6
1,370.4
455.2
134.0
367.2
$3,723.7
Central facility
121.0
Vehicles
98.9
Total
$3,943.6
The estimated initial costs can also be summarized in terms of the
principal system components as shown in Table 3.
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Table 3
ESTIMATED INITIAL COSTS OF THE ST. LOUIS
FACILITY BY SYSTEM COr.IPONENTS
(Thousands of Dollars)
Air quality instruments
Calibration equipment and accessories
Meteorological instruments
Instrument spare parts
Site preparation, housing, fixtures
Digital data terminal equipment
Data processing and communication
General facilities
Support vehicles
Total
Cost
$1,606.0
392.2
234.2
220.5
501.5
769.2
81.0
40.0
98.9
$3,943.6
The air quality instruments account for almost one-half the initial
costs at $1.6 million, with the digital data terminals at somewhat less
than 18% of the total. One of the lowest cost elements is attributable
to the data processing and communication facilities and accounts for
slightly more than 2% of the total costs. Significant advances in the
state of the art and high volume production of computers and peripheral
equipment have combined to create dramatic reductions in cost over the
past two to three years.
The annual operating cost once full operational status has been
achieved is estimated at about $1.5 million. This cost includes the
staff at both Research Triangle Park and St. Louis and all standard
operating supplies at St. Louis. These costs are summarized in Table 4.
The estimated personnel costs clearly constitute the chief element
of the annual costs, accounting for almost 80% of the total. The remain-
ing elements stand at 6% or less. A particularly uncertain cost is that
for rental of the central facility and especially land for the instru-
ment stations. A cost for instrument station sites was taken nominally
at $1000 per site. Undoubtedly, large variations will be found in this
unit estimate which can only be known with certainty following the actual
field survey.
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Table 4
ESTIMATED TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS OF THE
ST. LOUIS FACILITY AND PERMANENT STAFF
(Thousands of Dollars)
Personnel
Research Triangle Park
St. Louis
$
225.0
990.0
Subtotal
$1,215.0
91.8
14.5
38.4
78.4
98.0
12.7
Instrument replacement and parts
Motor vehicle operation
Telephone communication system
Building and land rental
Calibration gases
Electric power
Total
$1,548.8
The activation schedule of the St. Louis facility is estimated to
span about five calendar quarters following authorization of the Regional
Study. The overall expenditure schedule for both the initial and oper-
ating costs by quarter is summarized in Table 5. The operating costs in
the fifth quarter are judged to typify all subsequent quarters.
Table 5
ESTIMATED INITIAL AND OPERATING COSTS DURING
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ST. LOUIS FACILITY
(Thousands of Dollars)
Quarter
1 2 3 4 5
Initial costs $ 48.8 $347.1 $2,770.2 $470.9 $306.6
Operating costs 99.1 163.3 288.7 349.0 387.2
Total $147.9 $510.4 $ 3 , 058 . 9 $819.9 $693.8
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Helicopter and Mixing Layer Observational Program
The estimated costs of the mixing layer observational program are
presented in detail in Chapter XIV of Part III. The costs cover the
acquisition and operation of one helicopter and a balloon-borne instrument
system known as METRAC. Operational costs of the helicopter are based on
18 hours of operation during the period March through November and 12
hours per week for the balance of the year. Total helicopter costs on
a quarterly basis for this operational schedule are shown in Table 6.
Table 6
ESTIMATED COSTS OF HELICOPTER
OPERATION BY QUARTER
(Thousands of Dollars)
Quarter
Cost
January-March
April-June
July-September
October-December
$19.3
24.1
24.1
16.9
Total
$84.4
Research Plan
The following sections present the estimated requirements for per-
sonnel, major equipment, and the costs of these programs. Although
these estimates are judged to be suitable for the planning purposes of
this Prospectus, they will require continual review and modification in
further planning of the Regional Study and during its execution. This
is especially important for the estimates in the later time periods.
The estimates are intended to cover the requirements of each particular
program component, and all are considered a part of the Regional Study.
Further consideration of the Research Plan and perhaps the EPA policy
considerations may result in the transfer of part or all of certain
program components from the Regional Study to other components of the
ongoing EPA research program.
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The estimated costs of the Research Plan as presented in Chapter XXI
of Part IV total $9.7 million and are summarized later in Table 11. By
far the bulk of the costs are attributable to personnel, accounting for
85% of the total. About $900,000 is estimated to be required for spe-
cialized instruments for selected components of the Research Plan. Be-
cause of their somewhat specialized nature or because they require
additional development to achieve operational status they were not
considered as part of the permanent facility.
Personnel
Requirements
Requirements estimated for personnel stemming from the Research
Plan are summarized in Table 7. Scheduling is shown on the assumption
that the Regional Study is authorized by July 1, 1972. More than 311
man-years of professional and technical support personnel are estimated
to be required to carry out the Research Plan. Almost one-half the
personnel requirements stem from the 100-series tasks--Model Verifica-
tion--alone. Within this series about one-half of the personnel are
associated with the critical 104 component which covers the specific
efforts associated with model verification. The 100 and 200 series have
a ratio in the range of two-thirds to three-fourths between professional
and technical support personnel which tends to be appropriate in view of
the extensive laboratory and field efforts expected. The 300 to 400
series tend to require considerably fewer technical support personnel
compared with the number of professionals, because far lower field
efforts are expected.
Table 7
SUMMARY OF PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS FOR THE RESEARCH PLAN
(Man-Years)
Program
Element Professional Support Clerical Total
100 83 118 14 215
200 25 40 4 69
300 9 9 2 20
400 16 5 3 24
Total 133 172 23 328
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Each of the four major program elements is expected to be
coordinated by the various Research Division representatives in the
Office of Research Operations. Major program components, especially
those continuing throughout the life of the Regional Stud~ would neces-
sarily have full-time supervisors within the respective interested
Research Divisions. The extent to which contractor participation will
be necessary and appropriate is difficult to state and would likely de-
pend on the balance between program requirements in terms of scheduling
and capability and the available resources within EPA. Total personnel
requirements, however, should remain substantially identical regardless
of the manner in which the effort is conducted.
Professional and technical support personnel were estimated
on a task-by-task basis from their descriptions in Part II. An addi-
tional component of the staffing would include clerical support. For
planning purposes, clerical personnel requirements are estimated on the
basis of one per six professionals, bringing the total requirements to
328 man-years.
Costs
The total estimated costs of personnel associated directly
with the tasks included in the Research Plan are presented in Table 8,
based on the requirem~nts shown in Table 7. The estimated costs, as
discussed in Chapter XIX of Part IV are based on a unit cost of $25,000
per year per staff member, regardless of his labor or job classification
With the mix of classifications estimated to be required, the aggregated
estimates should be valid. Estimates for the smaller components of the
Research Plan that do not have a balanced staffing pattern would tend
to be less reliable. The unit cost includes direct salary, benefits,
travel, and all other funds necessary for support.
Total personnel costs directly associated with the Research
Plan are estimated at about $8.3 million.
82
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Table 8
ESTHIATED COST OF PERSONNEL REQUIRED BY THE RESEARCH PLAN
(Thousands of Dollars)
Calendar
Year 100 200 300 400 Total
1972 $ 383.6 $ 24.9 $ 408.5
1973 1,112.7 87.3 $208.4 $105.0 1,413.4
1974 1,202.0 445.0 108.4 180.3 1,935.7
1975 1,128.5 490.5 108.4 149.9 1,877.3
1976 1,035.2 525.6 108.4 156.3 1,825.5
1977 507.1 157.4 54.2 154.7 873.4
Total $5,369.1 $1,730.7 $487.8 $746.2 $8,333.8
Instrumentation and Equipment
The bulk of the instrumentation and equipment necessary for execu-
tion of the Research Plan is included in the St. Louis facility as dis-
cussed in Chapters XI-XII of Part III and Chapter XVIII of Part IV.
These items are generally expected to function throughout the life of
the Regional Study. However, several major items of equipment are in-
cluded more appropriately in the costs of the Research Plan rather than
in the St. Louis facility. The first includes the METRAC balloon-borne
instrument system discussed in Chapter III of Part II and Chapter XIV
of Part III for observations in the mixing layer.
Costs for additional research and development were estimated at
$100,000 in the first year after authorization of the Regional Study.
If the development is successful, an additional cost of $376,000 was
estimated for full implementation of the system having a capability to
simultaneously track six balloons. The estimated costs by quarter are
shown in Table 9. Program element 200--Atmospheric Chemical and Bio-
logical Processes--is estimated to require certain additional instrumen-
tation and equipment not included in the St. Louis facility. Their costs
are included within the costs of the Research Plan rather than the St.
Louis facility. Table 9 presents the estimated costs of these instru-
ments and equipment by program component and date of acquisition. Com-
pared with personnel costs, these expenditures tend to be modest except
perhaps for the gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer estimated at $100,000.
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Program
Component
Table 9
ESTIMATED COSTS OF SPEC IALIZED EQUIP~IENT FOR THE RESEARCH PLAN
(Thousands of Dollars)
103
201
202
203
204
406
Equipment Description
~IETRAC system development
METRAC procurement and
installation
Gas chromatograph
Electron capture gas chromato-
graph
G. C. mass spectrometer
Correlation spectrometer
Recorders for gas chromatographs
Sample vessels,
dard units
valving, stan-
Total
Electron mobility counter
Royco photometer counter
Anderson impactor
Total
Atomic absorber
Transmissometer
Radiative balance instruments
Total
Digital pH meter
Ti pping bucket rain- gage
Fabrication of precipitation pH
measurement and calibration
pH meter
Chemical electrodes
Total
Thermosonde
Acoustic sounder
Total
84
Qua nt it,.
3
3
6
2
5
5
3
5
10
5
7
3
2
Cost
8100. 0
376.0
18.0
14.0
100.0
10.0
10.0
8158.0
40.4
41.3
S 87.3
27.0
50.0
S 81.0
3.2
S 13.9
120.0
40.0
S160.0
Acquisition
D8te
Year/Quarter
1972/4
1974/1
1975/1
1975/1
1975/1
1975/1
6.0
1975/1
1975/1
1974/1
1974/1
5.6
1974/1
4.0
1975/1
1975/1
1973/3
5.0
1974/2
1974/2
2.5
1974/2
1.8
1974/2
1.4
1974/2
1973/2
1973 /2
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This unit would be installed at the central facility with the bulk of
the remaining items installed mainly at selected Class A and B stations
as discussed in the Research Plan.
Finally the research effort under program element 402--Atmospheric
Modeling--will require the use of two atmospheric sounders and three
thermosondes early in 1973. The estimated costs of these units are
also presented in Table 9.
Operations
Execution of the Research Plan will entail certain direct operating
costs in both the 100 and 200 series. In the 100 series, significant costs
are estimated to be associated with the 101 component for the operation
of the METRAC system during wind transport and tracer studies. The
Research Plan indicates the execution of the wind-tracking experiment
during the second and third quarters of 1974 and tracer studies in the
same quarters in 1975.
As noted in Chapter XIV of Part III the estimated operating costs
of the 11ETRAC system are $8000 per month per balloon launch point for an
intensive experimental effort. Thus, if the METRAC system is taken as
having four launch points, the total operating costs would be $32,000
per month. Under the ,research schedule shown above, the quarterly METRAC
operational costs expected are shown in Table 10.
Table 10
ESTIMATED OPERATIONAL COSTS
OF THE METRAC SYSTEM
(Thousands of Dollars)
Year--Quarter
Cost
1974--2
1974--3
1975--2
1975--3
$ 92
92
92
92
Total
$368
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Operating costs of the efforts in the 200 series are expected to
cover consumable and expendable laboratory supplies and equipment. The
costs of these items should be insignificant in comparison to personnel
costs, for example, so that a detailed estimate here does not appear
warranted. Accordingly, an average cost of $4000 per quarter will be
taken as the cost of these consumable and expendable items.
Total Cost of Research Plan
The total estimated cost of the effort covered by the Research Plan
is summarized in Table 11 by quarter. A total of $9.7 million is esti-
mated, with about 85% attributed to personnel. On an annual basis, costs
tend to peak in 1974 at $2.6 million, caused primarily by higher costs
of equipment acquisition and operations.
Total Costs of RAPS
The total estimated cost of the Regional Study is summarized in
Table 12 by quarter and is almost $21.2 million. The schedule is based
on the assumption that the Regional Study would be authorized on
July 1, 1972, and that activities are initiated immediately. The
greatest part of the total costs are attributable to personnel, with
about two-thirds of th~ total costs. Except for the quarter in which
the St. Louis facility is largely completed, the cost within any cate-
gory does not exceed personnel costs. The research staff costs tend to
lie in the range of 1.5 times the permanent staff. Combined instrument
costs of the St. Louis facility and the Research Plan are close to $5.0
million, or almost 25% of the total estimated cost.
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Tab le 11
TOTAL ESTIMATED COSTS OF THE RESEARCH PIAN
(Thousands of Dollars)
Year-Quarter Personnel Instruments Operations Total
1972-3 $ 175.6 $ 4.0 $ 179.6
-4 232.9 $100.0 4.0 336.9
Subtotal $ 408.5 $100.0 $ 8.0 $ 516.5
1973-1 304.2 4.0 308.2
-2 338.9 160.0 4.0 502.9
-3 395.9 50.0 4.0 449.9
-4 374.4 4.0 378.4
Subtotal $1,413.4 $210.0 $ 16.0 $1,639.4
1974-1 480.1 463.3 4.0 947.4
-2 504.5 13.9 96.0 614.4
-3 476.9 96.0 572.9
-4 474.2 4.0 478.2
Subtotal $1,935.7 $477. 2 $200.0 $2,612.9
1975-1 479.1 189.0 4.0 672.1
-2 470.8 96.0 566.8
-3 467.7 96.0 563.7
-4 459.7 4.0 463.7
Subtotal $1,877.3 $189.0 $200.0 $2,266.3
1976-1 465.7 4.0 469.7
-2 444.2 4.0 448.2
-3 448.6 4.0 452.6
-4 467.0 4.0 471. 0
Subtotal $1,825.5 $ 16.0 $1,841. 5
1977-1 442.9 4.0 446.9
-2 430.5 4.0 434.5
Subtotal $ 873.4 $ 8.0 $ 881. 4
Total $8,333.8 $976.2 $448.0 $9,758.0
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Table 12
ESTIMATED TOTAL QUARTERLY COSTS OF THE REGIONAL STUDY
(Thousands of Dollars)
Operating Costs
Initial Costs Equipmen t Personnel
Year- St. Louis Research St. Louis Research Permanen t Research
Quarter Facility Instruments Helicopter Facility Plan Staff Staff Total
1972-3 ~ 48.8 $ 2.0 ~ 4.0 ~ 97.0 $ 175.6 $ 327.4
-4 347.1 2100.0 S 16.9 12.1 4.0 151.2 232.9 864.2
Subtotal 2 395.9 $100.0 $ 16.9 $ 14.1 $ 8.0 $ 248.2 :5 408.5 $ 1,191.6
1973-1 2.770.2 160.0 19.3 51. 0 4.0 237.7 304.2 3,546.4
-2 470.9 50.0 24.1 57.0 4.0 292.0 338.9 1,236.9
-3 306.6 24.1 83.5 4.0 303.7 395.9 1,117.8
-4 16.9 83.5 4.0 303.7 374.4 782.5
Subtotal 23,547.7 $210.0 $ 84.4 :5 275.0 :5 16.0 $1,137.1 $1.413.4 $ 6,683.6
1974-1 463.1 19.3 83.5 4.0 303.7 480.1 1,353.7
-2 13.9 24.1 83.5 96.0 303.7 504.5 1,025.7
-3 24.1 83.5 96.0 303.7 476.9 984.2
-4 16.9 83.5 4.0 303.7 4H.2 882.3
Subtotal $477.0 $ 84.4 $ 334.0 $200.0 $1,214.8 $1,935.7 $ 4,245.9
1975-1 189.0 19.3 83.5 4.0 303.7 479.1 1,078.6
-2 24.1 83.5 96.0 303.7 470.8 978.1
-3 24.1 83.5 96.0 303.7 467.7 975.0
-4 16.9 83.5 4.0 303.7 459.7 867.8
Subtotal ."189.0 84.4 ' 334.0 $200.0 21,214.8 21,877 . 3 :5 3,899.5
-
1976-1 19.3 83.5 4.0 303.7 465.7 876.2
-2 24.1 83.5 4.0 303.7 444.2 859.5
-3 24.1 83.5 4.0 303.7 448.6 863.9
-4 16.9 83.5 4.0 303.7 467.0 875.1
Subtotal ." 84.4 ' 334.0 ~ 16.0 21,214.8 $1,825.5 $ 3,474.7
1977 -1 19.3 83.5 4.0 303.7 442.9 853.4
-2 24.1 83.5 4.0 303.7 430.5 845.8
Subtotal " 43.4 2 167.0 2 8.0 :5 607.4 :5 873.4 $ 1,699.2
Total $3,943.6 2976.0 "397.9 $1,458.1 2448.0 85,637.1 $8,333.8 $21,194.5
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