ADVANCED
AUTOMOTIVE POWER
SYSTEM STRUCTURED VALUE
ANALYSIS MODEL
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
-------
. MTR-6085
ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE
POWER. SYSTEM
STRUCTURED VALUE
. ANALYSIS MODEL
OCTOBER 1971
THE MITRE CORPORATION
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Approved for
Project Distribution
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11
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
vi
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
SECTION I
SECTION II
2.0
INTRODUCTION
1
EV ALUATION P AMMETERS
4
INTRODUCTION
4
2.1
Emissions
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1. 4
2.1.5
2.1.6
2.1.7
2.1.8
5
Carbon Monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Oxides of Nitrogen
Sulfur Oxides
Particulate Matter
Smoke
Odor
Noise
5
6
10
12
13
14
15
16
2.2 Operating Performance
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.2.4
2.2.5
17
Starting
Idle Operation
Acceleration
. Veloci ty
Range
17
19
20
21
23
2.3 Acceptability
2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3
2.3.4
2.4
24
Ease of Operation
Starting
Driver Comfort
Versatility
24
24
25
25
Operating Environ~ent
26
2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.4.4
2.4.5
2.5
2.6
Safety
Ambient Operating
Altitude
Weather
Wind Speed
Dust
Temperature
26
27
28
29
30
31
Personnel and Facilities
33
2.6.1 Time to Consumer Availability
33
11i
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2.6.2
2.6.3
TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT'D)
Page
Facilities
Personnel
34
35
2.7
Propulsion System Technicgl Parameters
37
2.7.1
2.7.2
2. ,'.3
2.7.4
2.8
Energy Storage Characteristics
Energy Converter Character.istics
Power Cond:f.tioner Characteristics
Overall Propulsion System Characteristics
39
42
48
51
Reliability and Maintenance
53
2.8.1
2.8.2
2.8.3
2.8.4
2.8.5
2.8.6
SECTION III
Complexity of System
Ease of Routine Service
Expense of Unscheduled Repair
Design Life
Period Between Routine Servicing
Estimated Mean Miles Between Failures
53
54
54
55
55
55
COST AND ECONOMIC FACTORS
56
3.1
Introduction
56
3.2
Research, Development, Test and Evaluation
.
56
3.3
Cost to the Consumer
58
3.3.1
3.3.2
3.4
Automobile Purchase Price
Consumer Operating Cost
59
65
Economic Reallocation
73
3.4.1
3.4.2
3.4.3
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail and Service
73
80
81
3.5
Cost to Governments
AAPS STRUCTURED VALUE ANALYSIS MODEL
85
SECTION IV
4.0
4.1
82
INTRODUCTION
85
Value Functions
4.1.1
85
Value Judgment Curve Development
iv
87
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4.1.2
4.1.3
4.1.4
4.1.5
4.1.6
4.1. 7
4.1.8
4.1.9
4.2
TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONCLUDED)
Page
Emissions Category
Operating Performance Category
Acceptability Category
Operating Environment Category
Safety Category
Personnel and Facilities Category
Propulsion System Technical Parameters
Reliability and Maintenance
94
106
121
128
136
143
154
188
195
Category Value Sets
4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
4.2.4
4.2.5
4.2.6
4.2.7
4.2.8
4.3
Emission Value Set
Operating Performance Value Set
Acceptability Value Set
Operating Environment Value Set
Safety Value Set
Personnel and Facilities Value Set
Propulsion System Technical Parameters
Value Set
Reliability and Maintenance Value Set
196
196
196
197
197
197
197
199
System Value Set
199
SECTION V. .ANALYSIS OF MODEL
200
5.1 Method of Analysis
5.2
200
Results of Analysis
202
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
5.2.4
5.2.5
5.2.6
5.2.7
5.2.8
REFERENCES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX I
APPEND IX I I
Emissions
Operating Performance
Acceptability
Operating Environment
Safety
Personnel and Facilities
Propulsion System Technical
Reliability and Maintenance
Performance
203
205
205
205
205
216
217
222
224
226
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL OFFICE ADVANCED
AUTOMOTIVE POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAM
229
STRUCTURED VALUE ANALYSIS
240
277
DISTRIBUTION LIST
v
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
FIGURE NUMBER Pag~
1 AUTOMOTIVE CO EMISSIONS AND STANDARDS 7
2 AUTOMOTIVE HC EMISSIONS AND STANDARDS 9
3 AUTOMOTIVE NOx EMISSIONS AND STANDARDS 11
4 AVERAGE PRICE PAID FOR AUTOMOBILE AS A
PERCENT OF MEDIAN F~IILY INCOME 64
5 STRUCTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE PARTS
DISTRIBUTION 69
6 LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE 86
7 CO EMISSIONS GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE 89
8 CO EMISSIONS GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE 90
9 CO EMISSIONS GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE 91
10 COMPLEXITY OF PRODUCTION CHANGEOVER 93
11 PARAMETER VALUES 201
12 LOGIC FLOW OF MAIN PROGRAM 250
TABLE NUMBER
Page
I
AUTOMOTIVE PARTS AND COMPONENTS
MANUFACTURING
74
II
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY MATERIAL
CONSUMPTION (1968)
79
III
EMISSION CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
207
IV
OPERATING PERFORMANCE CATEGORY SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
209
vi
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TABLE NUMBER
v
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
XIII
XIV
.xv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (CONCLUDED)
ACCEPTABILITY CATEGORY SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT CATEGORY SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
SAFETY CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PERSONNEL AND FACILITIES CATEGORY
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PROPULSION SYSTEM TECHNICAL PARAMETER
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
RELIABILITY AND MAINTENANCE CATEGORY
-SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
STRUCTURED VALUE ANALYSIS DEFINITIONS
VALUE FUNCTIONS
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED IN THE MODE-EHISSION
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF VALSET-EMISSION
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED IN THE MODE-
OPERATION PERF
vii
-.
~
211
213
215
219
220
22-3
242
256
271.
272
273
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SECTION I
INTRODUCTION
This document presents the Structured Value Analysis (SVA) Model
developed for the Division of Advanced Automotive Power Systems
Development (DAAPSD). Environmental Protection Agency.
The model will
provide L\ tool for DAAPSD to use in evaluating advanc,~d low-emission
power systems. and a basis for decisions relating to further deve1op-
ment of c:andidate power systems.
The Advanced Automotive Power System (AAPS) program is directed
toward the "goa1.of producing an ~ventiona11-Y_e~.. virtually
*
pollution free automobile within five years."
To achieve this
goal. the AAPS program provides for the development of available
candidate power systems from design into first generation hardware
and then through a second generation system for demonstration
before 1975.
The AAPS program will result in the demonstration of
two systems which will be able to compete technically. economically
and commercially with the gasoline-fueled. spark-igniticn.interna1
combustion engine.
In order to achieve this goal. a large number of AAPS candidates
must be evaluated. with those holding the most promise proceeding
into the full scale development program which will lead to success-
fu1 demonstration by 1975.
Throughout the program. the number of
candidate propulsion systems must be progressively reduced.
This
requires that frequent formal reviews and evaluations be conducted
in order to insure that those systems selected for development meet
*
President Nixon's Message on Environment. February 10. 1970.
1
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1--
the emissions standards of the Clean Air Act and can compete tech-
nically and economically with the conventional automobile power
system.
The technique for evaluating the AAPS candidates must be
quantitative and readily adaptable to the stage of a candidate's
development.
In addition, the technique must rely primarily on
engineering measurements and provide consistent, repeatable results.
Finally, the technique must allow the use of expert value judgments
as a valid part of the evaluation process.
The AAPS Structured
Value Analysis model described in this report provides these nec-
essary evaluation technique characteristics.
The first step in establishing an evaluation technique is to
identify those parameters which, when measured, will provide the
information needed to describe and adequately evaluate the AAPS
candidate.
Section 2.0 provides the list of the parameters, the
measurement scales and the rationale for the parameter selection.
The measurement scales are based principally on the DAAPSD Advanced
Automotive Power System Program "Vehicle Design Goals - Six Passenger
Automobile (Revision B-February 11, 1971," 11 pages) (Appendix I). ,
Section 3.0 presents a discussion of the cost and economic
factors critical to the evaluation of AAPS candidates.
Consideration
is given to the research and development costs, cost to the consumer,
economic reallocation, and cost to governments.
2
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The analytical formulation of the AAPS Structured Value Analysis
model is addressed in Section 4.0.
Included are the value functions
which\relates)the parameter measurements to a value to the user, the
user in this case being DAAPSD acting as agent for the motoring
public.
Also included are value sets of parameters for eight evalua-
tion categories: emissions, operating performance, acceptability,
operating environment, safety, personnel and facilities, propulsion
system technology and reliability and maintenance.
Finally, . a total
AAPS value set is presented.
This system value set will allow a com-
posite value score over the eight evaluation categories to be
assigned to an AAPS candidate.
Section 5.0 contains the results of the sensitivity analysis
conducted on the SVA model.
The parameters with the most influence on
the value scores in each evaluation category are identified.
Those
parameters which have the least impact on value scores are also
identified and are considered for deletion from the model.
A discussion of Structured Value Analysis and a description of
the SVA computer program are contained in Appendix II.
3
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SECTION II
EVALUATION PARAMETERS
2.0
INTRODUCTION
This section presents the preliminary list of parameters used
to describe low emission advanced automotive power systems.
The
rationale for their selection and scales of measurement including the
maximum and the minimum of the range are included.
The selection of the parameters was made independent of any parti-
cu1ar advanced power system technology.
As such, the parameters will
be applicable to the evaluation of any candidate low emission power
system in any stage of development.
It should be recognized that it
may not be feasible to get actual measurements for all parameters
during the early phases of the Advanced Automotive Power System program,
since many candidate systems will be in the "paper design" stage and
"hard" test data will not be available.
Therefore, it will be necessary
to establish a measure of uncertainty for selected parameters where
validated engineering data are not available.
The ranges of ~a1ues for the parameters were based primarily on
the Advanced Automotive Power System "Vehicle Design Goals - Six
Passenger Automobile (Revision B - February 11, 1971 - 11 pages)."
(Appendix I)
The maximum and minimum data points are established
for evaluation purposes only and should not be construed as goals.
For example, the maximum values for several performance parameters
represent maximum safety values; thus, actual performance above
these maximums is not reconnnended (1. e.., a maximum speed capabi1 i ty
above 110 mph is considered dangerous).
4
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The parameters have been divided into eight major categories as
follows:
1.
Emissions
2.
Operatin~ Performance
3.
Acceptability
4.
Operating Environment
5.
Safety
6.
Personnel and Facilities
7.
Propulsion System Technical Characteristics
8.
Reliability/Maintenance.
The remainder of this section presents descriptions of the indi-
vidual parameters.
The value judgment curves for the parameters are
found in Section IV.
2.1
Emissions
2.1.1
Carbon Monoxide
CO is the most abundant and widely distributed gaseouE pollutant.
with the automobile causing approximately 90% of the total.
Destruc-
tion of CO is almost entirely natural; however. the processes involved
are poorly understood.
The toxic effects of carbon monoxide on humans
have been known and studied for some time.
The primary effect is based
on CO's strong affinity for hemoglobin. with which it combines much
more readily than oxygen. to form carboxyhemoglobin.
This reduces
the capacity of the blood to transport oxygen from the lungs to the
tissues of the bodi.
The source of 90% of the carbon monoxide in the
5
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atmosphere is the exhaust of the internal combustion engine (ICE).
Considerable progress has been made in recent years in reducing the
CO emissions from the ICE.
As a result carbon monoxide output from
the average new vehicle has been reduced from 85+ grams/vehicle mile
for uncontrolled vehicles to 34 grams/vehicle mile with the introduc-
tion of exhaust controls on the 1968 models.
A number of State and Federal automobile exhaust standards for
CO emissions have been established by the Clean Air Act for 1975
model year vehicles.
Considerable promise is shown in meeting most
standards and goals through the use of alternative propulsion systems
or advancing the state of the art in controlling CO emissions from
the IC engine.
Emission characteristics for a number of alternative
propulsion systems and from a modified IC engine are compared toa
number of goals and standards in Figure 1.
For the purpose of
evaluating advanced automotive propulsion system emissions. a range
of 3.4 grams/vehicle mile to 4.5 grams/vehicle mile is chosen.
(Curve 1.1)
2.1.2
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons, parts of the fuel not burned in the normal IC
engine combustion cycle. are released into the atmosphere.
Approxi-
mate1y 50% of all hydrocarbons released into the air come from the IC
engine.
While no direct health effects have been shown for hydro-
carbons in the atmosphere, they do have an indirect effect through
their participation in photochemical reactions which result in the
6
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40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
aJ 28
:;:: 27
:= 26
aJ 25
~
o 24
'.-4
..c: 23
aJ
.e:. 2 2
1/1 21
S
III 20
,..
t.:) 19
o 18
u
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
o
1972-1974 Standard
1970-1974 Calif. Std. (9)
-
- M
~ --
M
--
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U H~M
H -u-
'-' H
,.... ,..--
Mr-'" 0 ~
'-'C""! 04.JI-oU (9)
,.....'-'~ ~'g~ 1975 Calif. Goal
~ - ~ ~ 0
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e u ~ aJ 0 ,..... M
H 0 ~~ ~ - N. Y. City Goal (10)
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'.-4 4.J 0 ~ ~
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~ r,:! "j P 7' . 1975-1976 Clean Air Act.DAAPSD Goal
~ 1£ ~ ~ -.-44-1
4-1 ~
~ ~ !:Q tnZ
FIGURE 1
AUTOMOTIVE CO EMISSIONS AND STANDARDS
7
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formation of smog which does produce plant damage, eye and respiratory
tract irritation, and reduced visibility.
Hydrocarbons are released
into the atmosphere from three sources on the automobile:
exhaust, 55%;
fuel evaporation from the fuel tank and the carburetor, 20%; and
crankcase blowby, 25%.
The crankcase blowby was the first source of
IC engine emission to be controlled.
I
All new cars sold in this
country after 1962 have crankcase blowby control devices, thus elimin-
ating hydrocarbon emissions from this source.
Reductions in hydro-
carbon exhaust and evaporation emissions will further reduce hydro-
carbon emissions to approximately 3.4 grams/vehicle mile for 1972
automobiles.
This represents a 70% reduction compared with 1962 and
earlier models without controls.
Further reductions in hydrocarbon emissions must be made since
more stringent standards and goals have been established by state and
Federal authorities.
These standards and goals are shown in Figure
2.
The goal of 0.41 grams/vehicle mile has been established by DAAPSD
and the Clean Air Act for advanced automotive propulsion systems.
Figure 2 also shows that many of these standards and goals are tech-
nically attainable through the use of alternative propulsion systems
or a modified IC engine.
For the purpose of evaluating advanced automotive propulsion system
emissions, a range of 0.3 grams/vehicle mile to 0.5 grams/vehicle mile
has been chosen.
(Curve 1.2)
8
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3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
Q) 2.4
:;:j 2.3
'-= 2.2
Q)
r-I 2.1
.~ 2.0
..c: , 9
Q) _a
:>
- 1.8
!I.I
~ 1. 7
~ 1.6
C.!I 1.5
~ 1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
o
1972-1974 Std.
Calif. Std. 1970-71 (9)
Calif. Std. 1972-74 (9)'
-
M
'-'
~""
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'-' u
....... qI ~
~ Q) 0
~ 0 r:<::~
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- Q) r:<:: ~ - M"-' Clean Air Act 1975-76 Std.
M -r:<:: Q)"C M ,..., ,..., -
'-' "C .,-1 ~ Q) ....... 1"-' OQqI
r-I r-I ~ l,...:j Q) Q QC.!I N. Y. City Goal (
.,-1 ~ 0 0 Q 0 r-I ",-I
'-' 0.,-1 qI ~~ .3I ~ ;: ~r-I
Q ~~ ~ Q ~ .,-I ~
::s qI ~ ~ ~ qI
U) CJ U)r.zJ ~ ~ U)z
10)
FIGURE 2
AUTOMOTIVE HC EMISSIONS AND STANDARDS
9
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z.1. 3
Oxides of Nitrogen
NO is also a product that forms from combustion, with the exhaust
x
being the source for all automobile emissions.
The oxides of nitrogen
are major participants in the formation of photochemical smog with
the most significant one being nitrogen dioxide (NOZ)' a yellow brown
gas, which significantly reduces atmospheric visibility at low concen-
trations.
It is known to be toxic to man; however, the low concentra-
tions which occur in the community atmosphere have not been identified
as damaging to health.
NO has been the last of the major automotive pollutants to come
x
under control.
Control of NO was started on some 1970 model auto-
x
mobiles in order to meet the 1971 California Standard of 4 grams/
vehicle mile.
The Federal Standard of 3 grams/vehicle mile is to go
into effect in 1973.
Longer range goals have been established by
Federal, State and Local Governments.
Among these are:
a.
1973 California Standard
1.3 grams/mile (reported
as NOZ)
.9 grams/mile (reported as NOZ)
b.
New York. City
c.
DAAPSD goal
.4 grams/mile (reported as NOZ)
d.
Clean Air Act Standard 1976
.4 grams/mile (reported
as NOZ)
These standards are illustrated in Figure 3.
Research has established that NOx emissions can be substantially
reduced.
The modified IC engine and alternative propulsion systems, as
shown in Figure 3, offer considerable promise in meeting the established
standards and goals.
10
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4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5'
- 3.4
N
a 3.3
z 3 2
t1) .
III 3.1
"'d 3.0
ClI
.j.J 2.9
~
o 2.8
0Q.
ClI 2.7
~ 2.6
ClI 2.5
..-i
-..-I 2.4
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ClI
..-i 2.2
u
.,.j 2.1
~ 2.0
:>
- 1.9
t1)
~ 1.8
~ 1.7
~
>< 1.6
a 1.5
z 1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
o
1971 Calif. Std.
.
'"
1973 Fed. Std.
1972-73 Calif. Std. (9)
1974 Calif. Std. (9)
C')
'-"
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M'-"U
1975 Calif.
N.
)
;.. QJ 0
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Goal
FIGURE 3
AUTOMOTIVE NO
x
EMISSIONS AND STANDARDS
11
-------
For purposes of evaluating advanced automotive propulsion system
emissions, a range of .35 grams/vehicle mile to 0.5 grams/vehicle mile
has been established.
This range encompasses all known goals and
standards to be met after 1975.
(Curve 1. 3)
2.1.4
Sulf ur Oxides
The conventional internal combustion automotive power plant
emits small amounts of sulfur oxides from the exhaust; however, no
standards have been set for control of this automotive emission.
Generally the amount of sulfur in gasoline is quite low and as a
result the automobile emits about 0.3 grams/vehicle mile of 50 .
x
This
accounts for less than 4% of the total sulfur oxides input to the
atmosphere.
While 50 emissions from existing IC engines are low, the relative
x
toxicity of S02 compared to CO (100 to 200 times greater) strongly
indicates that the AAPS program must consider this pollutant in the
evaluation of future power systems to insure that SO emissions
x
resulting from the use of automobiles remain at acceptable levels.
The largest known potential problem with 50 emissions exists in the
x
case of extensive use of an electric car.
The 50 emissions would
x
come not from the automobile itself, but from the fossil fueled
electric generating station which supplies the energy needs of the car.
According to reference(lroa full size vehicle with air conditioning
and power conveniences would use 0.5 Kw Hr/mile of electric power
Generation of this power would require 0.95 lb of 12,000 BTU/lb coal. If
12
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the sulfur content for fossil fuel burned in electric generating plants
is restricted to 0.6 lb sulfur per million BTD, the above vehicle
I
: ~
would cause the emission of 6.2 grams of S02 per vehicle ~ile.
For the purpose of this study only primary S02 emissions will be
evaluated to prevent serious complications which would arise if
secondary pollution from oil refineries, etc., were included for other
fuels.
However, in the final selection process such potential secondary
pollution problems should be studied in light of new technology for
reducing electric generating plant emissions.
The upper limit for direct SOx emissions (measured as S02) for
this study is set at 0.5 grams per vehicle mile.
The lower limit is
set at zero.
(Curve 1.4)
2.1.5
Particulate Matter
Particulate matter emitted from automobiles is for the most part.
submicroscopic liquid and solid particles.
It is thought that these
particles serve as condensation nuclei which may absorb pollutants.
These submicroscopic particles thus act as carriers for other pollu-
tants.
Since they are extremely small and are airborne, these
particles can be ingested into the respiratory tract without being
I -
intercepted by the nose or throat.
It has been pointed out that a high
concentration of potentially active nuclei from auto exhaust may be
a significant factor in the formation of ice crystals.
Such nuclei
consist, apparently, of very small lead residues which react with
atmospheric iodine to form lead iodide.
13
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Lead particulates result from the burning of gasoline with lead
additives.
About 70% of the lead used in gasoline is emitted from
the tail pipe:
30% settles almost immediately to the ground; 40%
becomes airborne and can be ingested by humans.
Particulate emissions including lead for the uncontrolled auto-
mobile are approximately 0.3 grams/vehicle mile.
As of now, no
standards have been set for these particulates.
For the purpose of this study a range of 0.01 to .075 gram/vehicle
mile was chosen for particulates.
This includes the goal of 0.03 grams/
vehicle mile established as a goal by DAAPSD.
(Curve 1.5)
2.1. 6
Smoke
Emission of visible smoke from properly maintained internal
combustion engines is essentially non-existent.
However, other engines
such as the diesel and gas turbine do emit visible smoke.
This smoke
is in general a nuisance and is not particularly harmful.
Tests have been conducted on diesel engines to determine the
opacity of smoke emissions.
Using a U. S. Public Health Service
full-flow light extinction smokemeter, the percent light obscured
ranged from approximately 20% to 35% at maximum power.
Federal
standards have set the following opacity maximums for diesels:
1)
40 percent during the engine acceleration mode;
2)
20 percent during engine lugging mode.
The Advanced Automotive Power System program vehicle design goals
do not establish a level of opacity for the new power system.
However,
14
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it is felt that visible smoke should be held near zero opacity.
Therefore, a range between 1% and 4.5% opacity was chosen, assuming
the Public Health Service smokemeter as a standard measurement instru-
ment.
(Curve 1.6)
2.1.7
Odor
The odor nuisance is minimum from a well maintained gasoline IC
engine.
However, other engines do emit odors which may be objection-
able to the general public.
For example, diesels and aircraft turbine
engines do emit odors which are a nuisance.
The measure of odor is based primarily on judgment.
The Public
Health Service has developed an odor quality/intensity kit which can
be used as a "baseline" for the measure of odor.
The Advanced Automotive Power System program vehicle design
goals do not provide a goal for odor.
Nevertheless, new automotive
propulsion systems must not emit an objectionable odor, and, therefore,
odor emission must be considered in the evaluation of propulsion
systems.
Three points on a judgment measurement scale for odor can
be established:
undetectable; detectable; objectionable.
Judgmental
ranges around these points can be established based on the percentage
of a test panel of people objecting to a given odor as follows: (Curve 1.7)
JUDGMENT SCALE
Undetectable
Detectable
Objectionable
DETECTING ODOR
0-20%
20-80%
80-100%
OBJECTING TO ODOR
o
o
Greater than 20%
15
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2.1.8
Noise
Traffic noise has become of increasing concern in recent years
and ways are being sought to reduce it. Vehicles make more noise at
some times than at others depending upon their mode of operation and
condition of maintenance.
Measurements taken at roadside, 15 feet
from a car going by at 60 mph. indicate that the nosie level ranged
from 66 to 72 dBA.
At full throttle the nosie level was 75 to 91
dBA. (12)
Other studies(!.3) showed that passenger cars traveling at
between 30 and 40 mph produced levels on the order of 65 dBA with a
range between 59 and 71 dBA when measured at 50 feet.
Basically there are two types of noise generated by an automo-
bile:
tire, and engine and exhaust noise.
The amount contributed by
each to the total noise generated is not known.
SAE standard J9$6a "Sound Level of Passenger Cars and Light Trucks"
has established a ~aximum sound level of 86 dBA measured at 50 feet
and full throttle;
DAAPSD has established a maximum level of 77 dBA
in the vehicle design goals.
In addition, DAAPSD has established a
maximwn
low speed level (30 mph) of 63 dBA and an idle level of 62 dBA.
For the purposes of this study three ranges have been established.
These are as follows:
Maximum external noise level (Curve 1.8)
71 dBA ~ 83 dBA
Maximum external low speed noise level (Curve 1.9) - 57 dBA - 69 dBA
Maximum external idle noise level (Curve 1.10) - 56 dBA - 68 dBA
The range represents t6 dBA around the values established by DAAPSD.
16
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Although t.he noise levels to which the occupants of a vehicle
are subjected are generally not high enough and exposure times not long
enough to have a detrimental effect on hearing, noise does interfere
with speech, increases fatigue and contributes to annoyance.
The latter
two effects can degrade the ability of the driver to safely operate
the vehicle.
The noise inside an automobile is produced by the complex vibra-
tion of all body surfaces enclosing the car's interior and depends. on
(a) the characteristics of the applied forces such as the power system,
wind, road vibration, tire noise, etc. and (b) the structural and
acoustical characteristics of the vehicle.
A noise level which might produce hearing damage would be well
above the level acceptable to. the average motorist.
The!."efore, in
establishing a maximum value for internal noise, it was. assumed that
minimum acceptabiHty would be the ability for the driver to conduct
a conversation in a normal communicating voice with a passenger.
Therefore, the maximum ambient internal noise was set at 65 dBA up
to maximum cruise speed.
An arbitrary minimum was established at
50 dBA (Curve 1.11).
2.2
Operating Performance
2.2.1
Starting
To the average motorist, engine starting is probably the single
most important operating characteristic of an automobile.
The driver
wants the engine to start every time and wants it to start quickly
under all environmental conditions.
17
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In order to evaluate the starting characteristics of the engines
the following are considered:
a)
normal starting time,
b)
cold soak starting time,
c)
starting reliability.
The starting and restarting procedures will be in accordance with
those outlined in the November 10, 1970 Federal Register paragraph
85.60 "Engine Starting and Restarting."
The Advanced Automotive Power System program "Vehicle Design
Goals - Six Passenger Automobiles" states the maximum time from key on
to 65 percent full power to be 45 seconds.
The ambient conditions
o
are 14.7 psia pressure, 60 F temperature.
Allowing approximately
33% deviation to this maximum, the maximum on the measurement scales
is established at 60 seconds.
The minimum is 0 seconds which repre-
sents instantaneous starting.
It is felt, however, that an engine
capable of starting in an average time of less than 10 seconds
would be satisfactory to the motoring public.
(Curve 2.1)
Starting engines in low ambient temperature is of particular
importance to motorists living in the colder climates.
The vehicle
design goals state that low ambient starting characteristics should
be equivalent or better than the typical automobile spark-ignition
engines.
Therefore, the advanced power system must attain self-
sustaining idle operation without further driver input within 25
18
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seconds after a 24 hour soak at -20oF.
The automobile must be avai1-
able for normal rdad operation within 60 seconds after key-on.
The
maximum and minimum times for cold soak starting is 40 seconds and
5 seconds respectively (Curve 2.2).
Reliability of starting under all environmental conditions is of
extreme importance.
Hhi1e no design goals have been specified for
reliability, it .i8 felt that any properly maintained engine which does
not start 99% of the time would not meet the motoring public's criteria
of acceptability.
A failure to start condition occurs when there is
any malfunction requiring an action other than that associated with
normal manufacturers recommended starting operations.
A range of
1% to 8% failure rate has been established for this parameter (Curve
2.3) .
2.2.2
Idle Operation
The advanced automotive power system must be capable of operating
under idle conditions both with and without a load on the engine.
The power system must be capable of idle operations within all environ-
mental condition ranges (see Section 2.4).
Idle operation is defined in the "Vehicle Design Goals" as follows:
The fuel consumption rate at idle operating condition will
not e~:ceed 14 percent of the fuel consumption rate at the
maximum design power condition. Recharging of energy storage
systems is exempted from this requirement. Air conditioning
is off, the power steering pump and power brake actuating
device, if directly engine driven, are being driven but are
unloaded. The torque at transmission output during idle
operation (idle creep torque) shall not exceed 40 foot pounds
19
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-,
at the output shaft, assuming conventional rear axle ratios
and tire sizes. This idle creep torque should result in
level road operation in high gear which does not exceed 18
mph.
In addition to the above requirements, it is felt that the
power system should be capable of idle for a minimum of 30 minutes
without exceeding other operating limits such as temperature.
The
idle should also be adjustable to allow air conditioning operation
while the vehicle is stopped.
The measure of idle operating capability will be a combination
of factors which when totaled will provide a measure of the idling
operations.
The factors and ranges are as follows:
Fuel consumption (Curve 2.4)
5% - 18%
Torque at Transmission output (Curve 2.5)
o - 50 ft. lbs.
Sustained Idle (Curve 2.6)
30 min. - 60 min.
2.2.3
Acceleration
Vehicle acceleration capability must be closely matched with
conditions encountered in urban and open road driving.
An under-
powered automobile which cannot accelerate in the manner characteris-
tic of most traffic can be a considerable safety hazard.
Similarly,
an overpowered automobile in the hands of an irresponsible driver may
present a hazard.
Therefore, vehicle acceleration capabilities must
be scaled to meeting safety and traffic conditions.
Three acceleration characteristics are included in the "design
goals."
These are:
20
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a)
Acceleration from a standing start
minimum distance 0-440 feet in 10 seconds,
b)
Acceleration in merging traffic,
25 mph to 70 mph maximum time 15.0 seconds,
c)
DOT high speed pass maneuver
Maximum acceptab1el5 seconds and 1400 feet.
The maximum acceleration values for evaluation purposes are
within 20% of the "vehicle design goals."
The minimum acceleration
values are based on conversations with insurance companies and the
criteria they use to define "Muscle Cars."
The following represent
the established ranges.
a)
Acceleration from a standing start
(Curve 2.7)
Distance in 10 seconds-min. 250 ft.
max. 800 ft.
b)
Acceleration in merging traffic (Curve 2.8)
25 mph to 70 mph
min.
6.5 sec.
max.
22 sec.
c)
DOT high speed pass maneuver
(Curve 2.9)
Max.
18 sec.
1800 ft.
Min.
12 sec.
1000 ft.
2.2.4
Velocity
The velocity the vehicle can attain is dependent on the aero-
dynamic drag, rolling resistance of the tires and engine power.
The
vehicle must be designed to attain and maintain speeds consistent
21
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. with that of normal high speed traffic.
However, safety dictates
that maximum speeds be held at some reasonable level.
Three velocity levels have been chosen as an overall measure of
this parameter.
These levels are:
cruise speed; maximum speed;
grade speed.
a)
Cruise speed - The "design goals" establishes the minimum
cruise velocity on a level road to be not less than 85 mph.
This
assumes an accessory load of 4 horsepower.
A deviation of t5% is
I,
I
allowed when the power system is operated in the temperature range
-20oF to l050F.
For the purpose of this study a minimum cruise speed
of 65 mph and a maximum of 95 mph have been established.
Maximum
value will be assigned to vehicles which achieve a cruise speed
between 80 and 90 mph (Curve 2.10).
b)
Maximum speed - Maximum speed is defined as the top speed
the vehicle can reach and maintain for short duration such as that
required in passing.
The "design goals" do not establish a maximum
speed; however, for the purpose of this study a maximum speed range of
80 to 110 mph is designated.
Maximum value will be assigned a vehicle
with a maximum speed from 85 to 95 mph
(Curve 2.11).
c)
Grade speed - The ability of a vehicle to maintain speed
going up a grade is important to the motorist driving modern highways.
The "design goals" define three minimums for grade velocities:
(1)
Minimum continuous cruise on a 5% grade shall be not
less than 60 mph.
22
-------
.,-
(2)
The vehicle must be capable of achieving a velocity
of 65 mph on a 5% grade, maintaining this velocity for
180 seconds when preceeded and followed by continuous
operation at 60 mph on the same 5% grade.
(3)
The vehicle must be capable of achieving a velocity of
70 mph on a 5% grade, maintaining this velocity.forlOO
seconds when preceeded and followed by continuous
operation at 60 mph on the same 5% grade.
For the purpose of this study the third design goal was chosen
as the measure of the vehicles grade velocity capability.
The scale
of measurement is a percent deviation scale from the specified minimum.
The percent deviation includes both time and velocity.
The range
chosen is between 0% and 10% of stated minimums (Curve 2.12).
2.2.5
Range
Vehicle range' is important to the motorist not only on long trips
but in day-to-day commuting.
With the growth of suburbs, commuters are
generally faced with longer trips to jobs, shopping and entertainment.
The requirement for frequent refueling is inconvenient to the motorist
and would most likely be unacceptable.
The "vehicle design goals" has established a minimum range of 200
miles when measured in two modes of operation, city-suburban mode and
cruise mode.
The city-suburban mode is measured on the driving cycle
which appears in the November 10, 1970 Federal Register, while the
cruise mode range is measured at a constant 70 miles per hour.
23
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,'. .
For the purpose of this study, a no reserve range of 160 miles to
240 miles has been established.
Two curves are presented for this
parameter based on urban driving and cruise driving. (Curve 2.13 and
2.14)
2.3
Acceptability
2.3.1
Ease of Operation
The American motoring public has almost 70 years of experience
behind them in driving vehicles powered by tIle conventional IC engine.
They have become accustomed to its operations, performance, and
instrumentation.
Any radical change in the actions which the motorist
must take to operate the engine will likely delay the acceptance of
an advanced automotive power system.
The evaluation of ease of use would necessarily be judgmental,
at least in the early development stages of an advanced engine.
Later,
after the engine has been integrated into a total automotive system,
quantitative human factors measurements might be taken.
The scale for the evaluation will be from 0 to 1, with .5
representing the ease of operation of the conventional internal com-
bustion engine as installed in 1971 six-passenger automobiles (Curve
3.1).
2.3.2
Starting
Starting operations should be no more complex than the starting
operation for the conventional spark-ignition engine.
No starting
24
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aids external to. the normal vehicle system should be required for
o
-20 F starts or higher temperatures.
Complexity of the starting
operation is a judgmental factor which can be qualitatively measured
on a scale ranging from one to zero where one represents the conven-
tiona1 spark-ignition starting operation and zero represents the need
for starting aids external to the vehicle systems (Curve 3.2).
2.3.3
Driver Comfort
Over the decades the American motoring public and the auto
manufacturers have jointly "decreed" that driver and passenger comfort
will play an important role in the design and construction of auto-
mobiles.
Occupant comfort does have some real physical basis, for
studies have shown relationships between comfort and driver and
occupant fatigue.
Discomfort due to the many vibrations and motions found in an
auto can result from many causes.
In this evaluation we are concerned
only with those caused by the propulsion system.
The goal for this
evaluation is that the propulsion system should not cause objectionable
vibrations or motions which are transmitted to the driver or occupants
of the vehicle.
The parameter will be judgmental based on the
percentage of a group of people who object to a given amount of
discomfort (Curve 3.3).
2.3.4
Versatility
The conventional internal combustion engine is extremely versatile.
It can range in horsepower from less than 1 hp to several thousand hp.
25
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It has been used effectively with all types of automobile chassis and
body styles, thus enabling the automobile industry to meet the
transportation requirements and esthetic needs of the motoring public.
An advanced automobile power system should be versatile enough to be
usable in various sizes and styles of automobiles.
In evaluating an advanced power system, its versatility must be
considered.
Two major factors will be considered:
adaptability to a
range of vehicle sizes and adaptability to body styles.
The adapt-
ability of the advanced power system to body style will be on a scale
from 0 to 1 with 1 representing no constraint on body style due to
the power system.
The value 0 represents severely constrained body
styling.
The conventional automobile engine would rate 0.5 on
the scale.
The adaptability of the power system will be evaluated
for vehicle sizes ranging from urban car size (1600 pounds minimum
curb weight) to luxury car size (approximately 5000 pounds curb
weight).
(Curves 3.4, 3.5, and 3.6)
2.4
Operating Environment
2.4.1
Ambient Operating Temperature
The vehicle propulsion system must be capable of starting and
operating under the range of ambient air temperatures found in con-
tinental U. S.
It is understood that some modifications may be required
for starting or operating in extreme cold conditions.
(For example,
IC engines which are water cooled require anti-freeze and oil heaters
are used in some areas during the coldest parts of winter).
It is
26
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assumed that an acceptable vehicle propulsion system will not need
adjustments or can be modified to operate at extremely cold temper-
Landsberg (14)
atures with no greater difficulty than the present IC engine.
gives some extreme ambient temperatures in the continental U. S. as
follows:
Riversidet Ye1lowstonet Wyo.
Fe"o 9 t 1933
-66°F
Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, Calif.
July 10, 1913
134°F
However, systems should not be penalized if they cannot achieve the
rare extremes given above.
The value judgments should be based on
normally expected maxima and minima.
Two value judgment curves will
be generated for ambient temperature (viz. maximum, minimum).
DAAPSD has established design goals for ambient temperature as
follows:
Maximum
12SoF
-40°F
Minimum
The perfo~mance scale will be in degrees fahrenheit.
The following
data points are given initially.
Maximum Temperature
(Curve 4.1)
l1SoF - 1300F
Minimum Temperature Data
(Curve 4.2)
-20°F - -40°F
All candidate systems are expected to operate between -20oF and IISoF.
2.4.2
Altitude
The vehicle propulsion system must be capable of starting and
operating at all altitudes normally encountered on U. S. roads.
(Exceptions shall be allowed for trails or roads up the highest
27
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mountains.)
The system must not degrade below acceptable levels
during high or low altitude performance.
The following altitude ranges have been established based on
altitudes normally encountered on U. S. highways.
Maximum altitude goal
11 ,000 ft MSL
Minimum altitude goal
-250 ft MSL
For high altitude operation the scale shall be in terms of reduced
operating power at 11,000 feet expressed as a percentage of normal
system operation at sea level.
For below sea level operation no signi-
ficant degradation will be allowed from normal system operation at
sea level.
The following data points are given (Curve 4.3).
11,000 Feet
System Operation degrades more than 35%
of sea level design goals
0.0
System operates at 100% sea level design
goal
1.0
2.4.3
Weather
The vehicle propulsion system must be capable of starting and
operating during all types of rain, snow, sleet, hail, etc.
This
requirement does not apply to submersion of the propulsion system due
to surface flooding.
Any system which cannot be started or operated
under these conditions must be capable of being shielded or otherwise
adjusted to meet the requirement.
The scale shall be in terms of reduced operating .power when any
of these weather conditions occur.
The following data points are
given (Curve 4.4);
28
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Weather lJata Value
The system can operate at 100% of design
goals durinb rain, snow, ice, etc.
1.0
The system degrades greater than 15%
during rain, snow, ice, etc.
0.0
2.4.4
Wind Speed
The vehicle propulsion system must be capable of starting and
operating over the range of wind speeds (regardless of wind direction)
normally encountered in the continental U. S.
This parameter concerns
propulsion system operation only, not total vehicle handling character-
istics.
All acceptable systems must be capable of operating during
gale force winds (range 32 mph to 63 mph) without serious degradation.
It is not required that an acceptable system be capable of operating
during hurricane force winds (i.e., 75 mph or greater).
Emergency
vehicles required to operate during such conditions may be granted
variance from the laws if acceptable candidate low-emission engines are
not developed to operate at these wind speeds.
Propulsion system power in terms of % reduction due to wind
speed should be evaluated at two wind speeds, 40 mph and 75 mph.
Data Points
Value at 40 mph
(Curve 4.5)
Value at 75 mph
(Curve 4.6)
Propulsion system not
degraded due to wind
1.0
1.0
Propulsion system performance
degrades 20% due to wind
0.0
0.8
Propulsion system performance
degrades 50% due to wind
0.0
0.0
,} t ~
-------
2.4.5
Dust
The vehicle propulsion system must be capable of starting and
operating under roadway dustloads (except as explained below for
sandstorms) normally encountered by current automobiles.
No part of
the propulsion system shall be so sensitive to dust as to require
maintenance which is more frequent or complicated than that of the
IC engine.
The vehicle propulsion system shall not be required to start
or operate in a severe sandstorm or severe duststorm.
A sandstorm
is defined as a strong wind carrying sand through the air, the dia-
meter of most particles ranging from 0.08 to 1 mm. (15) In contrast a
duststorm is composed of smaller particles whose mean diameter is
considerably less than 0.08 mm.
According to the National Weather
Service, if visibility is reduced to between 5/8 and 5/16 statue
mile, a sand or duststorm is reported; if visibility is reduced to less
than 5/16 statue mile, the storm is classified as "severe".
Sandstorms and duststorms are common in certain parts of the U. S.
for example, reference 15 cites the "Santa Ana" duststorm which often
occurs in the winter in the desert areas of southern California.
It
would be desirable to have the vehicle propulsion system operate
during non-severe sand or duststorms, but candidates which fail this
test should not be severely penalized.
The scale for dust measurement should be in terms of visibility.
The reduction of propulsion system efficiency below some critical
.30
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level should constitute failure at the selected visibility level.
The
following data points are given (Curve 4.7):
Data
Proposed Value
If the system operates for at least
30 minutes when the visibility due to dust
or sand is 5/16 mile or less
1.0
If the system operates for at least
30 minutes when the visibility due to dust
or sand is 5/8' mile
0.8
If the system does not
visibility due to dust
or greater
operate when the
or sand is 1 mile
0.0
2.5
Safety
Safety is of paramount importance in the starting and operating
of the vehicle propulsion system.
The same importance is also placed
on the energy supply subsystem of the vehicle propulsion system.
In
addition, safety considerations should also be considered in the
original production and subsequent maintenance of the propulsion
system and the energy supply subsystem.
The internal combustion engine
itself has a phenomenal record of safety in terms of personal injury
and property damage.
The present type of fuel storage system has
also proven to be quite reliable in normal operations, but has
presented some safety problems in vehicle accidents.
It is imperative
that safety always be a prime consideration.
A secondary safety
consideration which is also of considerable importance is the safety
associated with the production, servicing and maintenance of the
vehicle propulsion system.
31
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Although DAAPSD has not established any specific safety goals
they have emphatically stated that safety is always of paramount
importance in motor vehicle R&D.
Reference 16 discusses this point,
briefly.
Value functions for eight parameters will be developed in the
safety category.
These will be broken down into six functions
pertaining to vehicle operation and two functions pertaining to pro-
duction and maintenance.
The operating functions will be further
divided into groups involving normal vehicle operation and vehicles
involved in highway accidents.
The functions proposed are as follows:
1.
Propulsion system safety during normal operation and accidents.
(Curve 5.1).
2.
Energy supply safety during normal operation .(Curve 5.2).
3.
Energy supply safety during high speed accidents (Curve 5.3).
4. Energy supply safety during low speed accidents (Curve 5.4).
5. Safety during propulsion system production (Curve 5.5).
6. Safety during propulsion system servicing and maintenance (Curve 5.6).
Since the current IC engine customarily can be operated up to as much
as 100,000 miles without complete failure it is proposed that the
first four parameters listed above be structured on a nominal scale
relating to hazardous failure of the propulsion or energy supply
system.
A hazardous failure is defined as one which causes either
significant injury to personnel or significant property damage to the
vehicle itself and/or to surrounding property.
The scale for the
32
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I ~
functions relating to production and maintenance should also be nominal
based on a relative comparison with the current IC engine.
Another safety factor which will be considered is the use of .
hazardous materials in the power system.
Materials used must be no
more hazardous than those used in the IC engine.
If hazardous
materials are required, protective measures must be taken to prevent
exposure to personnel operating or maintaining the vehicle under
normal and emergency (accident) conditions.
Finally, the power system will be given nominal credit if it
possesses devices which allow it to fail-safe.
Fail-safe applies to
the prevention of power system damage and/or personnel injury.
2.6
Personnel and Facilities
The availability of a vehicle using an advanced low emission
propulsion system to the motoring public depends on a number of factors.
Basically it depends on the automobile industry's ability to modify
existing facilities or build new production facilities, and re-train
production, maintenance and service personnel.
2.6.1
Time to Consumer Availability
It is estimated that it takes 3 to 5 years to place a technologi-
cally feasible emission control technique involving significant IC
engine modification into universal mass production.
Further, it has
been estimated that it will take about 7 to 10 years to develop, test,
and tool up for mass production of vehicles using electric power systems.
33
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In evaluating advanced power systems) the time to consumer avail-
ability is very important.
The following g081 expressed by the President
places the availability into context "...with the goal of producing an
unconventionally powered, virtually pollution free automobile within
five years."
(1975)*
By meeting this goal and allowing 3 additional years to establish
a production capability of approximately 2.5 million automobiles, 1978
appears to be a reasonable goal for consumer availability.
Therefore,
a range from 1975 to 1980 has been established for the time to consumer
availability.
However, any extremely promising advanced technique will
be given some credit no matter how far in the future it may become
available.
(Curve 6.1)
2.6.2
Facilities
The establishment of production, service and maintenance facilities
for advanced power systems and associated energy supplies will have an
impact on the time to consumer availability and cost to the consumer.
If the facility requirements for advanced engines closely match those
of the present automobile industry, a distinct advantage occurs in
terms of cost and time to consumer availability.
The evaluation of
candidate advanced power systems will consider the following factors
as related to facilities.
a.
Lead time required for changeover of production facilities.
The scale used will be months to accomplish. (Curve 6.2)
*
President Nixon's Message on Environment. February 10, 1970.
34
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Range of values:
24 - 72 months
b.
Complexity of production facilities changeover including
residual value of present facilities.
Scale to be used
will be nominal. (Curve 6.3)
c.
Lead time required for changeover of field service and
maintenance facilities.
Scale to be in months to accomplish.
(Curve 6.4)
Range of values:
6 - 48 months
d.
Complexity of field facilities changeover including residual
value of present facilities and availability of new energy
stations.
Scale to be used will be nominal. (Curves 6.5 and 6.10)
2.6.3
Personnel
Personnel training requirements for producing, servicing and
maintaining advanced low-emission power systems may prove to be a
major problem i~ the transition from the conventionally powered
automobile.
Retra~ning a work force of over 1 million mechanics (17)
will be a time consuming costly undertaking.
However, time and cost
will depend on the engine complexity, changes necessary in other
automobile components such as transmissions and electrical system,
and the ability to use electronic diagnostic techniques to identify
engine malfunctions.
35
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Another critical personnel factor is the impact of an advanced
power system on the size, skill levels, and location of the automotive
labor force.
Significant changes in the size, distribution of skills,
and/or location of the labor force must be carefully assessed as to
economic impact and acceptability.
Evaluation of the effect of candidate power system on personnel
will include the following:
a.
Lead time required for production personnel training - Scale will
be in weeks to accomplish; (Curve 6.6)
Range of values:
o weeks (i.e., no additional training required)
- 60 weeks
b.
Educational levels required for production personnel - Scale
will be in terms of years of school or equivalent technical
training required; (Curve 6.7)
Range of values:
8 years (grade school) - 12 years (high school)
c.
Lead time for service and maintenance personnel training -
Scale will be in months to accomplish; (Curve 6.8)
Range of values:
o months (i.e., no additional training required)
- 24 months
d.
Educational levels required for service and maintenance personnel -
Scale will be in terms of years of school or equivalent technical
training required; (Curve 6.9)
36
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Range of values:
8 years (grade school) - 12 years (high school)
Absolute maximum - 14 years
".'~
2.7
Propulsion System Technical Parameters
A vehicle propulsion system is made up of the following components:
o
energy storage devices;
o
energy converters;
.'
o
power conditioners.
Energy storage. devices serve the function of storing energy in
various forms for controlled release to other elements in the propulsion
system.
Stored energy may take a variety of forms, including:
o
chemical energy, as through the oxidation (combustion) of
fossil fuels or electro-chemical conversion in primary (fuel)
cells;
o
electrical energy, as in secondary cells (storage batteries);
o
mechanical energy, as in rotating flywheels.
Energy converters are those components which alter the form of
. .
energy as, for example, in converting stored chemical or electrical
energy into the mechanical energy needed to propel a vehicle.
Thus,
common examples of energy converters would include:
o
heat engines (chemical-to~mechanical energy conversion)
such as gas turbines, Rankine cycle (steam) engines,
spark-ignition engines, and diesel engines;'
37
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o
electric motors (electrical-to-mechanical energy conversion).
Power conditioners are those elements which transform energy
flow (power) without changing its basic form.
In this component
1,'1'.
category the most common examples would include:
o
transmissions (e.g., mechanical, hydrokinetic, hydrostatic and
-. ele.ctri_cal) which - accep_~ shaft power at one torque and speed
and deliver the same power, minus internal losses, at a
conditioned torque and shaft speed);
o
solid state controls, which regulate and condition electric
power supplied by an electrical energy source (e.g., battery)
to_an electric motor.
. '.
In evaluating advanced automotive propulsion systems, it is
essential that, in addition to the entire propulsion system, the
inidvidual ~o~on~nts (energy storage devices, energy converters, and
power conditioners) should be evaluated as well.
There are several
reasons for evaluating individual components:
o
credit should be given ,to a_system having some exceptional
component!;, even though the. complete system may have unsat-
isfactory characteristics; -!
o
-incorporating component,evaluation into the Structured Value
Analysis (SVA) will permit this evaluation tool to be used
for rating alternate propulsion system components;
o
individual component evaluation will greatly aid :analysis
why one propulsion system-performs differently from anOther.
38
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Thus. under the broad category of propulsion system character-
istics. the chosen technical parameters are listed under the four sub-
categories of:
o
energy storage characteristics;
o
energy converter characteristics;
I.
o
power conditioner characteristics;
o
overall propulsion system characteristics.
2.7.1
Energy Storage Characteristics*
2.7.1.1
Specific Volume.
This parameter is the actual total
volume of the energy storage system. divided by its total energy
content.
This parameter includes both consumable (e.g.. combustible
fuel) and non-consumable (e.g.. fuel tanks. batteries. flywheel
assembiles) elements.
The appropriate range and units for this
parameter are:
.003 ft3/hp hr.
3
.8 ft /hp hr.
The minimum (.003) is equivalent to gasoline fuel and the maximum
(.8) is appropriate to typical flywheel assemblies. (Curve 7.1)
2.7.1.2
Specific Weight.
The.same comments apply here as for
2.7.1.1.
The range and units are:
.15 1bm/hp hr.
100 1bm/hp hr.
Gasoline fuel and flywheel assemblies are the appropriate examples for
the respective values. (Curve 7.2)
2.7.1.3
Specific Costs (Consumable Elements).
Unlike volume
and weight. energy system cost must be broken into consumable and
*
For 200 mile range, mode 2 driving cycle (see AAPS Design Goals).
39
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non-consumable elements, the former representing refueling. the latter
representing capital costs for the energy storage system.
The range
and units for refueling costs are:
.008 $/hp hr.
.04 $/hp hr.
The cost range. including estimated taxes, is based on current costs
for gasoline. for the minimum. and five times that cost for the maximum.
It should be noted that gasoline is the least expensive, per unit of
energy content,of fuels in common use today; electricity, if it were
assigned the same level of road taxes as gasoline. would be about twice
as costly as gasoline. (Curve 7.3)
2.7.1.4
Specific Costs (Non-Consumable Elements).
The capital
cost for energy storage has the same units as refueling costs and should
cover the following range:
.025 $/hp hr.
- 200 $/hp hr.
where the range limits correspond approximately to a conventional
automobile gasoline tank on one hand and a flywheel assembly on the
other.
The very wide range of values necessary for this parameter is
indicative of the very low cost of fossil fuel storage tanks compared
to the cost of other systems, such as electrical and mechanical energy
storage devices.
The commonly used lead-acid battery, for example,
has a specific capital cost of 40 $/hp hr. (Curve 7.4)
2.7.1.5
Known Fuel Reserves.
It is necessary to consider this
parameter because the real cost of a particular fuel, in terms of such
factors as effect of fuel usage on the environment, is not adequately
40
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"-
reflected by the actual retail cost of fuel.
The selected range and
units are:
100 yrs @ current consumption rate
10 years @ current consumption rate
It is felt that any system requiring a fuel for which known reserves
are less than ten (10) years on a world wide basis should be given
little credit in this category.
The fuel recovery industry standard
requires approximately 20 years lifetime of reserves for economic
operations.
Known reserves is selected as the appropriate parameter
in preference to estimated, but untapped reserves. (Curve 7.5)
2.7.1.6
Ease of Refueling.
A nominal scale (EGFP) of values is chosen
for this parameter.
This parameter takes account of the actual refueling
process once the vehicle has arrived ~t an energy station.
Such factors
as refueling time, number of personnel required, safety hazards, and
special facilities are included.
The value assigned to refueling ease
within this nominal scale will be guided by the following examples: (Curve 7.6)
E
Liquid Fuel, having volatility equal to or less than
that of gasoline;
G
Gaseous Fuels including those which are stored as
compressed gases or liquids under pressure, such as
pr9pane and butane;
F
Rapid Battery Charge or
Replacement; also cryogenically -
stored fuels such as liquid natural gas;
P
Lead-Acid Batteries requiring slow (over-night) charge.
41
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2.7.2
Energy Converter Characteristics
2.7.2.1
*
Specific Volume.
The general comments related to
specific volume, weight, and cost already stated for the energy storage
system a180 apply here.
For specific volume the range and units
selected are:
3
.03 ft /hp
3
.2 ft /hp
The range limits correspond roughly to an electric motor on the low
volume end of the scale and a Stirling engine at the high end. (Curve 7.7)
2.7.2.2
Specific Weight *
Selected range and units are:
.5 lbm/hp
10 Ibm/hp
where, as for specific volume, the range limits correspond appro xi-
mately to electric motors (in particular, high speed induction motors)
at low specific weight and Sitrling engines at the other end of the
scale. (Curve 7.8)
2.7.2.3
*
Specific Cost.
The only cost here is the initial
capital cost, and the appropriate range of this parameter is defined
by:
2 $/hp
15 $/hp
where, again, electric motors (in particular, squirrel cage induction
motors) and Stirling engines are the corresponding equivalents; the
Stirling engines being the more expensive. (Curve 7.9)
2.7.2.4
Power Range (Scalability)~
This parameter is deemed
essential as a means of rating the applicability of a particular energy
converter to other advanced propulsion system applications in different
*
At maximum continuous hp output.
42
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power ranges.
For example, a heat engine suitable for large
passenger automobiles and over-the-road trucks and buses, but not
practical in the power range required of compact urban vehicles, is
considered to be of less value than a heat engine which is practical
for all three applications.
It seems most appropriate to evaluate
power range (scalability) by assigning separate value functions for
the minimum practical design power and the maximum practical design
power for a particular energy converter concept.
For minimum design
power, the appropriate range is judged to be: (Curve 7.10)
10 hp
200 hp.
For maximum design power, the appropriate range was selected as: (Curve 7.11)
40 hp
400 hp.
Although none of the above values correspond to particular examples,
it is worth noting, by way of further illustration, that automotive
gas turbines are impractical and expensive at very low power levels
because of high internal losses, resulting in low efficiency, and
small dimensions requiring high machining tolerances.
On the other
hand, Rankine cycle (i.e., "steam") engines become impractical at high
power levels because of the relatively large size of the heat rejec-
tion components (condensor, fan, etc.).
2.7.2.5
Stall/Design Point Torque Ratio.
This parameter and
the one that follows influence the type of transmission or power
conditioner that an energy convertor may require in order to adequately
propel a vehicle.
A high stall/design point torque ratio for a heat
43
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engine or electric motor makes practical a direct drive connection
to the wheels.
On the other hand. a low ratio will require a trans-
mission or other power conditioning device to increase the low speed
torque available. at the wheels.
The range of values chosen for this
dimensionless ratio is:
0.5
5.0
An internal combustion engine which cannot be stalled would. in effect,
have a zero stall/design point torque ratio.
As additional examples,
two-shaft gas turbines will frequently have torque ratios of two or
more, while reciprocating Rankine engines and electric traction motors
may have even higher stall/design point torque ratios. (Curve 7.12)
2.7.2.6
Minimum/Design Point RPM Ratio.
This parameter is
important for assessing the power conditioning requirements of an
energy converter.
For example. any energy converter, such as internal
combustion engines, single-shaft turbines, and AC electric motors,
which cannot be stalled without ei~her damaging the system or requir-
ing a restart procedure, will demand a clutch or some other slipping
device, such as a hydraulic coupling. when the vehicle is stalled.
The range assigned to this ratio is: (Curve 7.13)
0.0
1.0
2.7.2.7
Regenerative Power Efficiency.
This parameter is the
efficiency of the energy converter when operated in a regenerative
mode.
In a regenerative mode, the kinetic energy of a vehicle in
44
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\ .
motion is returned~ less losses. through the propulsion system to
the energy storage components.
The efficiency will have the following
range:
0.0
.9
As an example. aD IC ~ngine is incapable of returning any of the
..'1\
vehicle kinetic energy to the energy storage system (in this c~$e.
\
stored foss11 fuel) and would hence have a regenerative power effici-
ency of zero.
"Electr:!.c motors. on the other hand. are highly efficient
in regenerative power modes. (Curve 7.14)
2.7.2.8
Absorption Power Effectiveness.
In contrast to the pre-
vious parameter (regenerative power efficiency) this par~eter measures
the ability of a particular energy convertor to absorb power in a
vehicle braking mode. regardless of whether the power is stored
(regenerative braking) "or dissipated (dynamic braking).
The most
appropriate defi~ition for this parameter is the ratio of the maximum
continuous braking power that can be absorbed at the output shaft to
the maximum continuous output power of the energy converter.
the
appropriate range for this ratio p~rameter is defined by:
.1
.9
Electric generators have high absorption power effectiveness (frequently
greater than 1.0) while the IC engine has a value considerably lower.
The minimum value of .1 for th1s parameter is chosen with reference to
the value for an IC engine. (Curve 7.15)
2.7.2.9
Mechanical Efficiency at Maximum Continuous Horsepower.
Although efficiency is generally a very strong function of operating
45
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mode (load, speed) and can be adequately defined only by a complete
performance map of the device, it is nevertheless useful to evaluate
an energy converter on the basis of a characteristic efficiency such
as the efficiency when operated under maximum continuous load.
This
efficiency would adequately describe the engine when used in hybrid
energy-storing propulsion systems which permit the energy converter
(usually a heat engine) to operate continuously at maximum load.
The
parameter range is defined by:
.15
.9
Electric motors correspond to the upper end of the range, while
fossil fueled heat engines are typical of the low end of the efficiency
range.
It should be noted that the higher efficiency of the electric
motors is partly compensated for by the higher electric energy costs
which in essence reflect the inefficiency of the fossil fuel energy
conversion process at the generating station. (Curve 7.16)
2.7.2.10
Response to Load Change.
This parameter is defined by
the time required for the energy convertor to change from zero or
idle to maximum rpm under no load conditions.
50 defined, this
parameter is thought to be an adequate measure of the energy conver-
ter's ability to respond to either load or speed changes.
The selected
range is:
1 second
5 seconds
46
-------
Typical of a system with rapid response is the IC engine which requires
between one and two' seconds to go from idle to maximum rpm.
Systems
having high thermal inertia or rotational inertia would require several
seconds for this speed change.
Five seconds is considered the maximum
tolerable lag. (Curve 7.17)
2.7.2.11
Overload Capability.
This parameter is essential for
sizing an energy converter to a particular application or duty
cycle.
It is defined as the ratio of the difference between peak
horsepower for five (5) minute operation and maximum continuous horse-
power to the maximum continuous power of the device.
The five minute
overload is assumed to take place following a stabilized maximum
power output operating mode.
The range for overload capability ratio
is given by:
0.0 - 3.0
where the larger value is typical of large induction motors and the
lower value represents no overload capability whatsoever. (Curve 7.18)
2.7.2.12
Sensitivity to Fuel Quality.
A nominal scale of high,
medium, low (HML) is chosen for measuring fuel sensitivity.
An energy
, .
converter having high sensitivity to fuel quality will tend to require
more costly fuel, making refueling more inconvenient by decreasing the
number of acceptable refueling stations, and decrease the system's
reliability in the event an inappropriate fuel is accidently used.
The
scale is defined by the following examples: (Curve 7.19)
47
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H
High compression 5pa~~ Ignition (51) engine
M
Diesel
L
External combustion engines and gas turbines
2.7.3
Power Conditioner Characteristics
Unless noted otherwise, the description of the parameters and the
appropriate units for power conditioners is the same as that given for
the corresponding energy converter parameters.
2.7.3.1
*
Specific Volume.
The range for this parameter is set
at:
.003 cu.ft/hp
.04 cu.ft/hp
The low end of the scale (.003) is typical of a standard automotive
3-speed box while the high end corresponds to a heavy duty hydrostatic
transmission.
(Curve 7.20)
2.7.3.2
Specific Weight ~
The range for this parameter is given
by:
0.4 1bm/hp
3.0 1bm/hp
where the range limits correspond to the same examples cited under
2.7.3.1. (Curve 7.21)
2.7.3.3
*
Specific Cost.
The range here is defined by:
0.3 $/hp
3.0 $/hp
where the low cost end of the scale represents the standard automotive
*
At maximum continuous power input.
48
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3-speed transmission and the upper end is arbitrarily set at a factor
of ten greater. (Curve 7.22)
*
Power Range (Scalability).
power is defined by: (Curve 7.23)
2.7.3.4
The range for minimum design
10 hp
200 hp
For maximum design power. the range is defined to be:
(Curve 7.24)
40 hp
400 hp
2.7.3.5
ReversinK Power Effectiveness.
This parameter is inti-
mately related to the regenerative and absorption power parameters
defined above for the energy converter.
It measures the ability of
the power conditioner to pass power in the reverse direction and is
defined as the ratio of maximum continuous power in reverse power
direction to maximum continuous power in forward power direction.
measured at the location of power input in both cases.
The range is
defined by:
0.05
1.0
Note that this is not an efficien~y; efficiency in reversing power
modes is discussed below.
Examples of power conditioners having high
reversing power effectiveness are mechanical transmissions using conven-
tional spur gears and electrical transmissions.
Power conditioners
which cannot easily handle reverse power flow include mechanical
* .
At maximum continuous power input.
49
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transmissions with high single step ratios, such as in worn gearing,
and some hydraulic torque converters. (Curve 7.25)
2.7.3.6
Mechanical Efficiency at Maximum Continuous Power.
The
range is defined by:
0.8
0.95
Mechanical transmissions are typical of the high efficiency end of
the scale, while hydrostatic transmissions represent the low efficiency
end. (Curve 7.26)
2.7.3.7
Mechanical Efficiency in Reverse Power Direction. This
parameter complements item 2.7.3.5, reversing power effectiveness, in
the sense that the former applies only if the latter has a finite
value (that is, if reversing power effectiveness is greater than .05).
In other words, if a power conditioner cannot accept reverse power flow,
it makes no sense to talk about efficiency in reverse power flow; thus,
an appropriate way to handle these two parameters might be to treat them
as a product.
The reverse power efficiency is measured at maximum
continuous reverse power with range defined by:
0.50
0.95
Standard mechanical transmissions are typical of the high efficiency
end of the range while hydrostatic transmissions and some electric
power conditioners might be closer to the lower end of the scale.
(Curve 7.27)
50
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2.7.4
Overall Propulsion System Characteristics
The following parameters evaluate the entire propulsion system
as a unit.
These parameters will be given greater weight than the
individual component parameters in the final system evaluation.
2.7.4.1
Average Propulsion Efficiency at the Wheel. Mode 1. Two
modes of vehicle operation. an urban/suburban mode and a cruise mode
are defined in the AAPS Design Goals.
Mode 1 is the urban/suburban
duty cycle.
To properly account for the effect of load and speed on
system efficiency. it is necessary to integrate the system performance
over the prescribed duty cycle to determine an overall propulsion
efficiency.
This integration can be performed in a straight forward
manner. numerically. once the performance characteristics of each
component of the system are known.
This parameter is therefore defined
as the ratio of mechanical energy delivered to the wheel divided by
the fuel energy consumed for the entire cycle.
The range is defined
by:
0.1
0.7
All-electric vehicles may have propulsion efficiencies as high as .7.
whereas the conventional IC engine system may have an efficiency
approaching .1.
As noted earlier. high efficiency of the electrical
system is partly offset by the higher energy cost. (Curve 7.28)
51
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2.7.4.2
Average Propulsion Efficiency at the Wheel, Mode 2.
In
the cruise mode, the average propulsion efficiency will tend to be
higher so that the appropriate range should be: (Curve 7.29)
0.15
0.8
Total Volume~
The total volume is assumed to be the
2.7.4.3
package volume of all elements in the propulsion system.
The range
is defined by:
15 cu. ft
40 cu. ft
The range is based on the AAPS Design Goal of 35 cubic feet.
The low
volume end of the range is equivalent to 1/3 of the design goal plus
the volume occupied by 25 gallons of a fossil fuel. (Curve 7.30)
2.7.4.4
Total Weight~
The range is defined by:
800 Ibm
1600 Ibm
The range is selected on the basis of the AAPS Design Goal of 1600 Ibm.
for the maximum. allowable propulsion system weight.
The lower
weight limit was arbitrarily set at one half the design goal.
(Curve 7.31)
2.7.4.5
Use of Scarce l1aterials~
This parameter is included
for the same reasons as the fuel reserves parameter (2.7.1.5):
the
raw material cost may not accurately reflect the true cost to society
of using a scarce material.
Only the most critical material in the
propulsion system is to be used for defining this parameter.
The
*
For 200 mi. in Mode 1 or Mode 2, which ever gives the highest value.
52
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definition is:
Total known reserves (tons)
Amount required per million vehicles (tons)
This dimensionless parameter has the following range:
20
1000
The range values can be put into perspective by noting that, for the
case of the lower value, recycling of the critical material must pro-
vide nearly 100% of the material required for new vehicles well before
20 million new vehicles using the scarce material have been built.
The
high end of the range was arbitrarily set at fifty times the lower
limit. corresponding to a 100 year supply at a rate of 10 million
vehicles per year. (Curve 7.32)
2.8
Reliability and Maintenance
2.8.1
Complexity of System
This parameter is defined simply as the number of loaded. moving
parts in the propulsion system.
In this category, ball bearings.
for example, are counted as being one part for the entire bearing
assembly.
Peripheral components such as carburetor elements or
electrical relays are not counted as loaded, moving parts.
-The range
is defined to be:
6 loaded, moving parts -
150 loaded, moving parts
An electric drive system consisting of 2 direct connected electric
motors (1 rotor and 2 bearings each) would have 6 loaded, moving
53
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parts.
An IC engine (V-8) with a hydrokinetic (automatic) trans-
mission would have close to 150 loaded, moving parts. (Curve 8.1)
2.8.2
Ease of Routine Service
By this parameter is meant the simplicity of routine maintenance,
including such factors as frequency of service, man-hours per routine
servicing, special equipment required, and the availability of servicing
locations.
A nominal scale of high, medium, and low (HML) is chosen
here, with ratings assigned consistent with the following examples: (Curve 8.2)
H
Simple battery-powered electrical systems (e.g., periodic
contactor and brush replacement)
M
Gas turbines (e.g., periodic oil change and infrequent
scheduled overhauls)
L
IC engin~s (e.g., periodic oil change and engine tune-up
and infrequent, unscheduled overhauls)
2.8.3
Expense of Unscheduled Repair
This item applies to a typical major failure of the propulsion
system, where failure is defined in 2.8.6.
As examples, we would
include connecting rod bearing or valve failure of an IC engine, disc
or rotor failure of a gas turbine, and a motor burnout in an electrical
system.
The chosen parameter is expense of repair of such typical
failures as a fraction. of the initial cost of the vehicle, with the
range given by: (Curve 8.3)
2% of initial vehicle cost -
30% of initial vehicle cost
54
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2.8.4
Design Life
Design life is the estimated mean operating life.
Determination
of this parameter for a particular system should be based on standard
techniques currently in use in the manufacturing industry most closely
related to the nature of the propulsion system.
A range for design
life is based on the AAPS Design Goal of 3500 hours. (Curve 8.4)
2900 hours
4100 hours
2.8.5
Period Between Routine Servicing
This parameter is self-explained, and is related to the ease of
routine servicing (2.8.2), and has the following assigned range:
1 month (or 1,000 miles)
12 months (or 12,000 miles)
The smaller value (months or 1,000's of miles) will be used in all
cases where both are given. (Curve 8.5)
2.8.6
Estimated Mean Miles Between Failures
This parameter is admittedly difficult to determine for novel
systems with no history of endurance testing.
Nevertheless, it should
be estimated for all systems.
The following defintion of failure
should be used:
'failure means breakage or malfunction of a propulsion
system component such that operation of the system is
prevented or cannot continue without further damage to
the system'
The following range is chosen:
(Curve 8.6)
6,000 miles between failure - 50,000 miles between failure
55
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SECTION III
COST AND ECONOMIC FACTORS
3.1
Introduction
The cost evaluation of the Advanced Automotive Power System
(AAPS) program will be based on a comparative system cost approach.
Under this approach system value/cost relationships will be established
for each candidate.
The results will then be used to rank the AAPS
candidates on a system value versus system cost basis.
The cost evaluation will consider four major coat and economic
categories: Research, Development, Test and Engineering; Cost to the
Consumer; Economic Reallocation; Cost to Governments.
Each candidate
system will be evaluated in terms of the costs required to make it
suitable for mass production and procurement by the motoring public.
This cost will include the research, development, test and engineer-
ing efforts to be accomplished under the AAPS program.
The remaining
three cost and economic categories will be used to evaluate the
candidate AAPS's ability to compete economically with the conventional
internal combustion engine.
The following paragraphs discuss the four cost categories in more
detail.
3.2
Research, Development, Test and Evaluation
The RDT&E cost represent those costs which must be expended in
order to bring the AAPS to an operational level.
The RDT&E costs will
be incurred by DAAPSD and/or the firms developing the candidate system
56
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and can be summarized as follows:
a.
R&D manpower for engine design and fabrication.
b.
Materials for engine fabrication.
c.
Test and evaluation equipment.
d.
Fuel for test and evaluation.
e.
Manpower for test and evaluation.
f.
Administrative, overhead and profit costs.
The RDT&E costs incurred throughout the AAPS program include
proof-of-principle demonstrations, design efforts, first and second
generation hardware fabrication.
These costs will be used in the
evaluation of relative performance and effectiveness of a candidate
low-emission propulsion system against the total cost of developing
and testing the system.
The RDT&E costs associated with developing an automotive pro-
pulsion system which will meet emission standards, while providing
the performance and reliability of existing propulsion systems at a
reasonable cost to the consumer is expected to be v~ry large.
A
recent EPA report stated that U. S. automakers are now spending more
than $330 million a year in research and development on emission
reduction.
These funds are being spent to develop internal combus-
tion engines suitable for mass production within the time limits set
In the next four years, $73 mil~ion(7) will be
by the Clean Air Act.
spent for Government sponsored research to develop alternatives to
the internal combustion engine.
Another $20 million will be used
J;
-------
for incentive programs under which the Government will purchase
and test vehicle prototypes turned out by manufacturers.
The evaluation of AAPS candidates must consider the RDT&E
costs involved.
Since the candidates are in different stages of
development the RDT&E costs versus the system value must also
account for the technological risk and uncertainty associated with
the development.
A ranking of the candidates will then be made
based on the value/RDT&E cost relationship as adjusted to consider
the risk and uncertainties involved.
3.3
Cost to the Consumer
Consumer spending on automobiles represents a major factor in
the nations economy as well as a major budget item for the 82% of the
families in the U. S. who own automobiles.
In 1970, consumers
spent approximately $72.4 billion on the purchase and operation of
automobiles.
This represents approximately 12.0% of the total goods
and services purchased by individuals in 1970.
The cost to the consumer is probably the most important measure
of the economics of conversion.
This cost reflects the vast majority
of all the costs which will be associated with converting from the
IC engine to an advanced power system since under the free-enterprise
system a manufacturer attempts to recoup all costs plus a profit.
Thus, the automobile industry would pass on to the consumer those
costs associated with converting to the advanced engine.
58
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The following factors are used to evaluate the cost to the
consumer:
1.
Consumer Purchase Cost
a.
Total cost of automobile.
b.
Total cost as a percentage of median family income.
c.
Cost of power system.
2.
Consumer Operating Cost
a.
Fuel cost - $/mi1e
b.
Oil cost - $/mi1e
c.
Maintenance, repairs and replacement parts ~ $/mi1e
d.
Accessories - $/mile
e.
Insurance - $/mi1e
f.
Taxes, and fees - $/mile.
3.3.1
Automobile Purchase Price
The purchase price of an automobile is based on the cost of manu-
facturing, distributing and selling the vehicle.
In estimating the
cost of an automobile powered by an unconventional, low-emission
power system, three major cost items should be considered:
capital
cost, material cost and labor cost.
In 1969, fixed capital expenditures by motor vehicle and parts
manufacturers for new plants and equipment was estimated to be $1.65
billion(l).
Much of this expenditure was for normal replacement of
equipment and retooling for new automobile models.
The capital
expenditures which may be required to convert existing manufacturing
59
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facilities to the production of an unconv~ntion engine will be.
dependent on two factors.
First is the timing of converaion.
If
the timetable for conversion of production facilities from the IC
engine to the AAPS can be matched with the normal replacement of
plants and equipment, the capital cost impact would be minimized.
The second major factor is the type of AAPSto be manufactured.
If
the equipment required to produce the IC engine can be modified to
produce the AAPS, capital investment costs could be held to a
relatively low level.
However, if the AAPS involves an entirely new
production technique and new production equipment such as that
required for the Brayton Cycle engine, capital costs might be very
substantial.
Therefore, in order to estimate this cost, it will be
necessary to study the major components of the candidate AAPS to
determine the manufacturing procedures which must be followed and
to identify major tooling changes necessary to produce the engine.
Capital investment needed for the distribution and sales of the
automobile should be very low.
Assuming the manufacturers elect a
gradual conversion strategy, wholesale and retail dealers will most
likely be able to make use of existing automobile showroomS and sales
facilities, thus keeping capital expenditure to a minimum.
The cost of materials and the cost of semi-finished or finished
parts could ch~ge significantly with the introduction of the AAPS.
The material cos.t will depend on the availability of the basic
material and the complexity of the forging, machining or other pro-
cessing techniques required in finishing the material for use in the
60
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engine. For example, in August 1971, the price for carbon steel was
$.1125 per pound while aluminum was $.29 per pound(2m. It has been
estimated that the cost of a finished high-ductility forged part
would be $7-$8 per pound(21).
In order to estimate the material cost
of an AAPS candidate, the design must be carefully analyzed to
determine the materials required and the finishing operations which
must be performed.
There should be no significant change in the material cost
associated with the distribution and sales of an automobile powered
by an AAPS.
Labor cost represents a relatively small portion of the auto-
mobile cost.
In 1967, the average labor cost/automobile was
approximately $260.00 which represented approximately 12% of the
automobile shipment value (22). The conversion to a mass produced
AAPS may present two production labor problems.
First the conversion
may bring with it a change in the number of direct manhours which
must be spent in manufacturing the AAPS.
The automobile industry
currently employs machines and automated equipment suited for
high volume assembly line operations, thus, direct labor costs
are small when compared to the material and material processing costs.
If, however, the production of the AAPS cannot be automated to the
degree currently employed, higher labor costs can be expected.
The
second potential labor problem involves the skills and training
required to produce the AAPS.
The conversion to any unconventional
AAPS will involve a degree of production personnel retraining.
61
-------
,-
However, if the engine is very complex, then the automobile industry
may be faced with a general upgrading of skill levels. and the
introduction of new labor skills into the manufacturing process.
This could raise the direct labor cost significantly.
Therefore, it
will be necessary to closely evaluate the AAPS candid~tes in terms
of labor hours to produce and manpower skill levels required..
.Distribution and sales personnel may be faced with a training
cost, however, it is expected that these costs will be insignificant.
The above costs incurred by the industry will be passed on to the
consumer in the purchase cost of the automobile.
The purchase cost
is the cost the consumer incurs when he purchases an automobile
for cash, from a dealer.
The purchase price of course depends on
the make and model of automobile and, the optional equipment installed.
In 1969, the average price of a new automobile was $3,510(19). . This
represents an increase of 15% over the average 1960 cost of$3,140(1~.
The primary cause of this increase was inflation; however, the addi-:-
tion of safety and emission coritrol devices also contributed. to the
increase.
During the 70's the purchase cost of automobiles .is
expected to incr~ase as much. as they have in: the past.
If we assume
an average increase in cost due to 2% per year inflation, the average
1980 automobil~ will cost $4,350.
The cost of emission control and
safety devices must be added to this.
It has been estimated that
these costs will range between $300 and $700 per unit. .1f this is
the case, the 1980 average automobile may cost over $5,000,.
representing a cost inc~ease of approximately 40% above the 1969
average automobile vurchase price.
62
\/' .
-------
Actual purchase price of the automobile is not necessarily a
good measure for determining the cost impact to the consumer.
A
better measure would be the percent of median family income that an
automobile purchase would represent.
The average purchase price of
an automobile has taken a decreasing percentage of the median family
income since 1955 as shown in Figure 4.
In 1968, the average new
car purchase price represented 35% of the median family income.
If
we assume that income will continue to increase during the 70's as
it did in the 60's, approximately 4% per year, a $5,000 automobile
would represent almost 40% of the median 1980 family income.
Looking
at it another way, assuming the consumer is willing to spend the same
percent of income in 1980 as he did in 1968, the average car could
cost approximately $4,500.00 without creating a major consumer pro-
blem.
This figure provides a first measure of comparisons.
The cost of an AAPS candidate should also be compared against
the cost of the conventional internal combustion engine.
A cost
range for the IC engine and transmission was estimated for an average
1970 standard, 8 cylinder U. S. manufactured sedan (23).
The baseline
cost ranges are as follows:
Minimum Maximum
Cost Cost
Power Converter (1) $690 $1,010
Power Conditioner (2) $160 $ 230
63
-------
, E-4
Z
r.z;j
u
e3 50
~
100
61.8% 60. '}"
-
45.2%
40.2% 38.2"
90
80
70
60
40
30
20
10
o
i955
1960
1965
YEAR
1967
1968'
FIGURE 4
AVERAGE PRICE PAID FOR AUTOMOBILE AS A PERCENT OF
MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME
64
-------
Minimum
::
230 Weight:: 690 lbs.
$3/HP - $l.OO/lb. (2)
3 lbs/HP-
$4.40/HP :: $1 47/lb (2)
3 lbs/HP . .
(1)
Average HP ::
Maximum
::
(2)
Average HP :: 230
Weight:: 138 lbs.
Minimum
=
.70$/HP
.60lbs/HP
1.00$/HP
.601l/HP
::
$1.17/lb.(2)
Maximum
::
::
$1.67/lb. (2)
3.3.2
Consumer OperatinR Cost
Automobile operating cost can be broken down into fixed and
variable costs.
The fixed cost, such as insurance, taxes, license
and registration f~es are not expected to change as a result of the
operation of an advanced low-emission vehicle and therefore, will
be treated as a constant in this study.
The variable costs are directly related to the power system,
the number of miles driven, how hard the car is used and other
factors and include the cost of the energy supply, lubrication, repair,
maintenance, and replacement parts.
The cost of tires are not expected
to be affected by the operation of an advanced power system.
3.3.2.1
Fuel and Lubrication Cost.
The cost of fuel and
lubricant varies considerably among vehicles.
Fuel consumption
for the same make and model may vary as much as 50 percent since
consumption depends on how the vehicle is driven, the type of
driving (urban, highspeed cruise), the load carried and the
general condition of the vehicle.
Oil consumption also varies
considerably among vehicles, and depends on essentially the same
factors as does fuel consumption.
65
-------
In 1969, passenger cars consumed 62,325 million gallons of
gasoline.
This represented an average of 13.63 miles traveled per
gallon of gasoline consumed.
Based on the August 1971 average
price of gasoline of 24.6 cents/gallon excluding taxes, the cost
, (20) ,
per mile driven. is ,$.0180. Toe average cost of oil used in automobiles
is approximately $.0016 per mile.
The consumer cost of fuel for a candidate AAPS will depend
on the unit cost of ,the fuel and the miles which can be driven on
a unit of fuel.
If the AAPS candidate uses gasoline as a fuel, no
major change in cost is expected.
However, if the candidate uses
another petroleum product such as kerosine or diesel fuel, some change
in cost will most likely occur.
The petroleum industry is currently
producing annually 87.5 billion gallons of gasoline; 4.2 billion
gallons of kerosine; 7 billion gallons of diesel fuel,and 13 billion
gallons of jet fuel.
Thus, any change .from gasoline to one of the
other common petroleum fuels will require a significant increase in
the capacity of the industry to produce and distribute the fuel.
The
cost of this increased capacity will most likely be passed on to
the consumer.
Thus', while the other petroleum fuels are currently lower in
cost than gasoline, (approximately $.Ol/gallon wholesale) it would be
'reasonable to expect a significant increase in the cost of these fuel
if a major conversion from gasoline did take place. ,(An ex~mple of the
cost of changing fuels can be seen in the $.01 - $.02/gallon increase
in. unleaded gasoline over leaded gasoline.)
An adequate estimate of
66
-------
the cost of other petroleum fuels produced in 100 or more billion
gallon quantities can only be developed after extensive analysis of
the petroleum industry and refinery processes.
cost based on current prices of other petroleum faels could lead to
To estimate consumer
significant errors.
Estimating consumer fuel cost for AAPS candidates which require
a non-petroleum energy supply will require extensive analysis.
For
example, the cost of the electricity needed to power a vehicle must
be determined by analyzing the cost of additional generating capacity,
fuel cost for the additional capacity, cost of recharging stations
and others.
Further, the cost estimate must consider the conversion
costs for the existing 216,000 retail petroleum service stations.
The other factor which will influence the consumer fuel bill
is the rate at which fuel is consumed by the engine.
It has been
estimated that a 10% loss in fuel performance will be one of the
cost associated with IC engine emission control.
If this is the
case, the average motorist will buy on the average an additional 74
gallons of gasoline a year at a cost of approximately $27.00.
As a measure of comparison the following fuel cost baseline
has been established.
All costs are in 1971 dollars.
1971 Fuel Cost/Mile
$.018
Additional Cost due to unleaded gasoline
.0015
Additional cost due to lower performance
.0019
Baseline fuel cost $/mile
$.0214
67
-------
No major change in oil cost is expected, therefore, the baseline
remains at $.0016/mile.
.3.3.2.2
Maintenance, Repairs and Replacement Parts.
Maintenance
and repair cost vary primarily as a result of total miles driven,
. the age of the vehicle and the original purchase price of the vehicle.
I.
,
The first year maintenance and repair cost are generally low due to
the newness of the vehicle and the fact that manufacturers parts and
I
[
labor warranties are in effect.
As the automobile gets older, these
costs increase significantly as shown below(19) .
YEAR MILES DRIVEN $ /MILE . TOTAL COST
1 14,500 .005 72 .50
3 11,500. .0159 183.00
5 9,900 .0174 .. 272 . 00
7 9,500 .0340 .322.00
The 10-year total cost for maintenance and repairs is approximately
$1,900.00 or.54% of the average price paid for the car.
The conversion to an AAPS power automobile may have a most
pronounced effect on the automobile parts and service industry.
This
is primarily due to. its magnitude and complexity.
The complexity of
the industry is illustrated in Figure 5.
Automobile manufacturers
...' .
68
-------
AUTOMOBILE
MANUFACTURERS
INDEPENDENT
MANUFACTURERS
\
\,
DEALERS
PURCHASES
OIL AND TIRE
COMP ANIES AS
WHOLESALERS
DEALERS
RETAIL SALES
REPAIR
GARAGE
FLEETS. FARM.
DEALERS
SERVICE
STATION
, MASS
MERCHANDISERS
FIGURE 5
STRUCTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE PARTS DISTRIBUTION (25)
69
-------
make about 30% 'of parts sold to the after-market, distributing most
of these to dealers and the remainder to wholesalers, and mass
merchandisers.
Independent manufacturers account for the remaining 70%
of the parts after-market.
They sell mostly to wholesalers and jobbers
with the remaining going to mass merchandisers.
The mag~itude of the service indust~ is shown in the following
Table.
RETAIL SALES - SERVICE'
Number of Number of SALES (Billions)
Type of Business Establishments Employees Farts Labor Total
(000)
New Car Dealers 32,898 696 4.8 2.4 7.2
Tire Battery & Accessory
Dealers 29,189 130 2.4 1.8 4.2
Gasoline Service Stations (1) 216,058 800 2.4 1.1 3.5
Automobile Repair Shops 109,946 298 2.5 1.8 4.3
TOTAL Retail~Serivce 385 ,091 1,914 Ll.l 7.1 19.2
(1) Does not include sales cJf gasoline and oil.
The total 1967 outlay by consumers for automobile services represented
approximately 4 percent of all consumer expenditures.
Conversion to an AAPS places two burdens on this industry:
(1)
cost of maintaining inventories for the IC engines and the'
AAPS,
(2)
training or retraining maintenance personnel.
70
-------
(25)
There are over 100,000 separate parts listed for automobiles.
This
,.
inventory of parts will have to be maintained in the service industry
for approximately 10 years after the IC engine production is terminated.
An inventory of parts for the AAPS will have to be manufactured and
distributeci during this time.
This could result in increased inventory
I
costs to the service industry which would be passed on to the consumer in
higher maintenance and repair bills.
Training cost for mechanics may represent a very significant
cost of conversion.
It is estimated that the entire service industry
(17) .
employed 875,000 mechanics ~n
will grow to 940,000(17)in 1975.
1971 and that the number of mechanics
Government training costs in 1970
for mechanics range between $620 to $2,900(25)depending on the needs
of the trainee, training program design and the skill level required.
Assuming the lowest cost, 90 day retraining program, the total cost
of retraining the 1975 mechanic population would approach $600 million.
This cost will have to be absorbed by the consumer in terms of higher
labor charges or by the Government and eventually by the taxpayer.
For a comparative evaluation of repair and maintenance costs
of AAPS a baseline has been established.
This baseline includes
cost of labor and replacement parts, and an estimate of the increased
maintenance cost due to new emission control and safety devices to
be installed on automobiles during the 1971-1975 period.
71
-------
1970 cost/mile
$.0191
Cost increases due to
increased complexity of
IC engine, emission controls,
safety features (15%)
.0029
TOTAL Maintenance, Repair and
Replacement Parts Baseline
.0220
3.3.2.3
Insurance, Taxes and Fees.
The cost of insurance, taxes
and fees are not expected to change as a result of the conversion to
an AAPS.
These costs are therefore held constant at the 1970 level
as follows.
Insurance
$.Ol72/mile
$.0135/mile
Taxes and fees
$.0307
3.3.2.4
Summary.
The 1970 nationwide average total operating
costs, excluding depreciation, for a 4-door sedan driven 100,000
miles over ten years is $.069/mile.
The baseline operating cost
for evaluation purposes is compared to the 1970 costs in the fo11ow-'
ing Table.
Evaluation
1970 Baseline
Fuel .0173 .0214
Oil .0016 .0016
Maintenance & Repair
& Replacement Parts .0191 . u220
Accessories .0003 .0003
Insurance .0172 .0172
Taxes & Fees .0135 , .0135
.069 .076
72
-------
3.4
Economic Reallocation
The economic reallocation factor is defined as a shifting in the
allocation of resources from one industry to another and, in the
extreme,abandonment of part or an entire industry.
Economic realloca-
tion principal effects are displacement of the labor force, premature
obsolence of plant and equipment in some industries and severe shortages
in trained personnel, plant and equipment in other industries.
Economic reallocation caused by the conversion to an AAPS will
be the most difficult factor to evaluate and the one most subject to
error.
Economic reallocation should be evaluated for each of the major
segments of the automotive industry, including manufacturing, whole-
sale trade, and retail service and trade.
3.4.1
Manufacturing
The value of automobiles shipped from the manufacturing industry
in 1971 is expected to be approximately $24 billion(2~. This accounts
for approximately 2% of the projected gross national product.
A single industry of this magnitude has an effect on many indus-
tries in the economy.
For example, in 1967, the cost of materials used
in the motor vehicles industry amounted to $19.9 billion.
A partial
list of these materials are shown in Table I.
Table II illustrates the
automotive industries consumption of metals.
As can be seen from
these tables, the motor vehicle industry consumes a large percentage
of the total production of several other manufacturing industries.
73
-------
TABLE I
AUTOMOTIVE PARTS AND COMPONENTS MANUFACTURING
ENGINE RELATED INDUSTRy(22)
SIC* rNDUSTRY QUANTITY VALUE % OF T9TAL
$M INDUSTRY
28993 Chemical Preparations NA . 160.2 14
Anti Freeze and Others
30691 Rubber and Plastic Belts 59.9 41.6 16.
(million units)
35991-11 C~rburetors (million units) 1.5.2 177.1 NA
35991-31 Pistons-Aluminum (million) 33.0 70.6 NA
35991-35 Pistons-Other (million) .2.0 1.5 NA
35991...,51 Piston Rings Oil (million) 257.4 31.4 NA
Piston Rings Compression 437.8 55.1 NA
(million)
35991-61 Valves (million) 131.4 80.9 NA
3621 Motor and Generators 28. 145.6 6.3
(Accessory) (million)
3691 Storage Batteries (million) 40.7 364.4 63
3694 . Ignition harnesses 24.2 33.3 NA
(millions)
Generators 6V (millions) NA 2.1 NA
12V (millions) 11.6 156.3 NA
Rebuilt Generators NA 27.0 NA
Rebuilt Regulators NA .9 NA
New Regulators 15.1 41.4 NA
Cranking Motors New 11. 7 197.7 NA
Cranking Motors Rebuilt 2.6 23.5 NA
Spark Plugs 656.2 184.8 NA
NA = Not Available.
*
. SIC = Standard Industrial Code
74
-------
TABLE I (CONT'D)
SIC'" INDUSTRY QUANTITY VALUE % OF TOTAL
$M INDUSTRY
3694 Ignition Coils 16.0 30.0 NA
Distributors 11.6 69.6 NA
Auto Switches 124.3 120.7 NA
Components & Parts
(points, condensers,
rotors, etc.) NA 150.7 NA
TOTAL VALUE OF ENGINE RELATED
INDUSTRY SHIPMENTS 2,156.4
75
-------
TABLE I (CONT'D)
BODY, CHASSIS, SUSPENSION ~IRES AND OTHERS
VALUE '% OF TOTAL
SIC INDUSTRY QUANTITY $M INDUSTRY
22960 Tire Cord & Fabric (million lbs) 478.6 404,6 NA
30695 ~echanical Rubber Goods
(million lbs) N/A. 204.3 19
30795 Industrial Plastic Products N/A 305.6 24
32113 Laminated Glass million ft2 190 342.0 94
32292 'Lighing & Electrical Glassware N/A 17.1 5
32315, 'Mirrors N/A 41. 7 26
32316 2 86.3 59.1 58
Tempered Glass million ft
33579 Non Ferrous Wiring
(million lbs copper) 22.5 25.8 .7
28516 Industrial Product Finishers'
(million gal) 40.7 119.4 17
28517 Industrial Lacquers (million gal) 12.0 40.3 22
30111 Tires & Inner Tubes (million) 172.4 1,753 56
34231 Hand Service Tools (million) 7.6 24.5 6
3429 Misc. Hardware N/A 807.7 36
'3451 Screw Machine Products N/A 233.2 ' 23
3452 Bolts, Nuts, Rivets N/A 91.2 6
3461 l-letal Stampings N/A 3,178.2 58
34819 Wire Chain (1000 tons) 44.6 38.6 43
3493 ' Steel Springs (1000 tons) 417.8 164.2 62
3585179 Air Conditioning (000 units) 3190 327.6 N/A
3641 ' Electric Lamps (000 bulbs) 592.8 88.2 12
76
-------
TABLE I (CONT'D)
3642 Lighting Fixtures N/A 167.6 11
3651 Radio & TV Receiving
Sets (million) 8.2 211.1 6
38214 Motor Vehicle Instruments N/A 71.4 N/A
TOTAL VALUE OF BODY CHASSIS, SUSPENSION,
TIRE and OTHER AUTOMOTIVE SHIPMENTS 8,716.4
77
-------
"
TABLE I (CONCLUDED)
AUTOMOTIVE INTERIOR FINISHING
% OF TOTAL
SIC INDUSTRY QUANTITY VALUE INDUSTRY
22720-05 'Tufted Carp~ts & Rugs
Million yds 40.2 84.6 6.4
22930-13 Padding and Upho1stry Filling
(million 1bs) 2.6 60.1 37
23962-16 Automotive and Apparel Trimming 513. 64
23990 Fabricated Tensile Products
(1000 sets) 32 J 777 98.0 18
30693 Sponge &'Foam Rubber Goods
(million 1b) 4~.5 45.5 16
30694 Rubber Floor & Wall Cqvering N/A 28.8 40
34813 Misc. Wire Spring Products
(1000 tons) 188 114.4 45
TOTAL VALUE OF AUTOMOTIVE INTERIOR FINISHING
SHIPMENTS 944.4
. "
78
-------
TABLE II
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY MATERIAL CONSUMPTION (1968)
NATIONAL 1968 AUTOMOTIVE % OF U.S.
INDUSTRY CONSUMPTION INDUSTRY CON- CONSUMPTION
SUMPTION
. 1. Steel (tons)
Alloy bar 7,815,606 1,740,301 22.3
Stainless bar 819,042 132,174 16.1
Carbon bar 1,677 ,641 1,023,347 60.9
Total bar 10,312,289 2,895,822 28.1
Strip 3,010,911 829,772 27.6
Sheet 27,11"7,391 12,470,266 46.0
Galvanized 5,201,099 943,295 18.0
Total Steel 91,855,894 19,269,373 21.0
2. Aluminum (tons) 5,043,500 522,500 10.4
3. Copper & Copper
Alloys (ton) 3,188,500 260,500 8.2
4. Gray and Ductile
Iron (ton) 15 ,672 ,000 2,927.000 19.4
5. Lead (tons) 1,328,770 723,443 54.7
6. Malleable Iron (tons) 1,093,788 437,540 40.0
7. Nickel (tons) 170,000 42,230 14.3
8. Rubber (tons) 3,040,586 1,967,508 64.7
9. Zinc (tons) 1,550,000 566,000 36.5
79
-------
The AAPS cost analysis must consider the prospects of a major
, shift away. from one of these manufacturing industries, and the impact
that this shift would cause on the overall economy.
FoZ' example, an
AAPS which requires the shift to electricity rather than gasoline
as an energy source must be evaluated in the light of the 437 gasoline
manufacturing establishments employing 106,700 people and having sales
in excess of $20 billion.
In order to adequately assess the impact of conversion to an
AAPS on other industries a detailed study must be made of the mater-
ia15 and the component manufacturing needed to produce the AAPS.
The results of this study should then be compared against an IC engine
manufacturing baseline such as that contained under Engine Related
Industries - Table I and the Material Consumption - Table II.
An index of manufacturing reallocation can then be established for
each candidate AAPS, and a rank ordering of all ,candidates can be
made in terms of value and economic reallocation impact.
3.4.2
Wholesale Trade
The automotive wholesale trade would probably be minimally
affected by a conversion to an AAPS candidate.
Even though this
segment is large (65,700 establishments, 550,000 employees, $80
billion sales) no major change in the wholesalers basic function can
be seen.
The one exception is the petroleum wholesalers which
would be significantly affected if the AAPS uses an energy source
other than gasoiine.
80
-------
3.4.3
Retail and Service
This segment of the automotive industry would potentially have
the largest problem in converting to the AAPS.
This segment is
characterized by the large number of relatively small independent
business establishments as shown below:
NUMBER OF SALES
ESTABLISHMENTS. EMPLOYEES ($ MILLION)
Motor Vehicle Dealers 62,023 785,900 48,635.6
Tire; Battery & Accessory
Dealers 29,189 158,800 4,235.8
Gasoline Service Stations 216,059 800,300 22,709.4
Auto. Repair Sh.ops 109,946 297,069 4,085.5
TOTAL 417,217 2,042,069 79,666.3
Many of these businesses are one, two or three man operations.
For example of the 109,946 automobile repair shops, approximately
48,000 have no employees.
Only 44,000 of the 62,000 motor vehicle
dealers have paid employees.
The problem facing this segment of the industry is one of sur-
viva!.
Many of these businesses have low dollar volume of sales and
low working capital to invest in tools and equipment which may be
necessary to make the conversion.
A survey of the yearly salary
volume averages for repair shops illustrates this problem.
The
results of the survey showed the percentage repair shops having an
average annual dollar volume as follows:
$300,000 and over, 1.3%;
$200,000 - $299,999, 1.9%; $150,000 to $199,000, 3.3%; $100,000 to
81
-------
$149,999, 8.2%; $80,000 to $99,999, 5.2%; $60,000 to $79,99, 10.0%;
$40,000 to $59,999, 16.0%; $20,000 to $39,999, 28.5%; $0 to $20,000,
25.6%. (25)
Another problem is the possible loss of mechanics which consti~
i
I
tute a large portion of the labor employed in this segment.
On the
average, mechanics earn about $6,500/year.
If they are faced with
. .
paying for retraining (estimated minimum cost $620). and purchasing
additional tools necessary to repair .an AAPS, many mechanics may
leave the industry for better paying jobs.
If this occurs, the
mechanic. to vehicle ratio may increase significantly above the 1
mechanic to 154 vehicles projected for 1975 and~ consequently increase
repair costs and decrease availability of repairs.
AAPS candidates must be evaluated in the terms of the above
considerations.
A massive disruption of the retail and s&rvice.
industry would have a significant impact on the economy and the.
social well being of the nation.
3.5
Cost to Governments
Federal, State and Local Governments receive considerable
revenues from taxes on automobiles and gasoline., In 1969 these tax
'. . (18)
revenues were. as follows:
82
-------
Government Revenues (Millions)
Federal
Fuel Receipts
Oil
3.350
59
572
29
1.874
629
82
134
Tires
Tread Rubber
Automobiles
Trucks. Busses. Trailers
Parts & Accessories
Motor Vehicle Tax
Registration Fees
Other Fees
TOTAL
6 .728
State
Total
5.977
9.327
59
572
29
166
2.564
534
1.874
629
82
300
2.564
534
9.234
15.969
Candidate AAPS should be evaluated to determine if a substantial
change in these receipts would occur under existing tax structures.
All unj.ts of government are responsible for capital outlays
and maintenance of the nation's highway system.
In 1969. government
disbursements for highways amounted to approximately $18.382 million.
These disbursements have been increasing at a rate of approximately
7% per year.
Candidate AAPS could influence new highway designs and
require modification to existing highways.
Therefore. the candidate
AAPS should be analyzed to determine any effect which it might have
on the nation's highways and the associated cost to the governments.
and eventually. the taxpayer and consumer.
83
-------
There maybe other costs to tbe governments which must be con-
sidered.
For example, pe:dodic inspection of privately owned vehicles
to insure they do not exceed emission standards may become the respon-
sibility of one of the levels of government.
Large expenditures for
research and development, demonstration and fleet testing by federal
and state governments may have .an impact on the taxpayers.
These and
. .
other 'potential cost to governments must be analyzed in evaluating the
.. ..
candidate AAPS..
84
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SECTION IV
AAPS STRUCTURED VALUE ANALYSIS MODEL
'-
4.0
INTRODUCTION
This section presents the analytical formulation of the AAPS
Structured Value Analysis Model.
Included are the value judgment
curves and value function for the parameters discussed in Section.
2.0, the value sets. for each of the eight evaluation categories and
the total AAPS system value set.
The value function and its graphic representation, the value
judgment curve, is the basic input to the AAPS Structured Value Analysis
model.
The value function relates points on the parameter measurement
scale to a value scale which ranges between zero for no value to the
user and unity for maximum value to the user.
In this case the user
is. DAAPSD acting as agent for the motoring public.
Category value sets for the eight evaluation categories are also
presented.
These value sets establish the relationship among the para-
meters in a p~rti~ular category.
Finally R.n .A4P~ system value set
presented which establishes the relationship among the eight evaluation
categories is defined.
4.1
Value Functions
The value function relates points on the parameter measurement
scale to a normalized value scale which ranges between zero for no
value to unity for maximum value and is graphically represented by a
value judgment curve.
Figure 6 shows a typical value judgment curve.
85
-------
00
0\
~.
f;I:J
U]
~
o
E-4
.f;I:J
~
~.
>
1.
0.5
0.0
VALUE JUDGMENT CURVE
~
FIGURE 6
LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE
-------
With each level of performance there is associated son~ value On a
scale from 0 to 1. where 1 corresponds to a level of performance
I"
I
beyond which no further value accrues.
Similarly. the 0 value
corresponds to the level of performance which is beyond the range of
acceptability and thus has no value to the DAAPSD and/or to the auto-
mobile consumer.
4.1.1
Value .Judgment Curve Development
A common approach was used to develop the value judgment curves
contained in this section.
This approach resulted in value judgment
curves with the following desirable characteristics:
1.
smooth variation over the entire range.
2.
zero slope at the origin.
3.
asymptotic approach to zero or one for large values of
the parameters, and
4.
flexibility so that special cases are easily incorporated.
The first step in developing the value judgment curve was to
establish the maximum and minimum values for each evaluation para-
meter.
These.maximums and minimums were presented in Section 2.0 of
this report.
Th.;: U'::At 5Lcp Wcll:i to de£lnt:: any additional. points
between the parameter maximum and minimum points and to assign a value
to these points.
For example. four points along the measurement
scale for the carbon monoxide emissions evaluation parameter were
identified. and assigned a value as follows:
87
-------
PARAMETER VALUE TO
VALUE USER
1975 California Goal 12 grams/mile .10
N. Y. City Goal 9 grams/mile .25
Clean Air Act Standard 3.4 grams/mile .95
DAAPSD Goal 3.4 grams/mile .95
These points were then plotted on an initial value judgment scale
and were joined through linear segments as shown in Figure 7.
Based on the linear plots. smooth curves with the desirable
characteristics discussed above were developed.
These curves appro-
ximate the linear curve throughout the entire range and are represented
mathematically by one of the following functions:
v
=
n
tanh ax
or
v
c'
n
l-,tanh ax
where
v
""
value to user
x
==
parameter value
1
n, >
n
As a result of applying the function I-tanh ax to the above CO
emission example. the value judgment curve shown in Figure 8 was
developed.
This curve was reviewed by DAAPS and other automotive
experts.
As a result a new curve with increased 'slope and reduced
I .
range was agreed upon as being more representative of the CO emission/
value to the user relationship.
This curve is shown in Figure 9.
This procedure was followed in the majority of cases.
The parameters which are measured by nominal scales could not be
handled with this technique.
The value judgment curves for, the nominal
scale parameters have a similar shape to those using the above
88
-------
1.
~
f:&I
tn
::;J
o 0.5
~ E-t
f:&I
::;J
~
0.0
o
VALUE JUDGMENT CURVE
CLEAN AIR ACT STD.
DAAPSD GOAL (3.4. .95)
N.Y. City Goal (9, .25)
1975 CALIF. STD.
(12, .10)
1
11
13
4
6
7 8
FIGuRE 7
CO EMISSIONS
GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE
2
3
5
9
10
12
14
.": .
-------
1.
IX:
r:&I
tI)
~
\0 0 0.5
o E-4
r:&I
~
~
0.0
o
VALUE JUDGMENT CURVE
1
3
.11
15
12
6
8
7
10
14
4
5
9
13
2
FIGURE 8
CO EMISSIONS
GRMIS/VEHICLE NILE
-------
U)
,....
.
o
a:
LL.J
(f)
=>
0
\0 QU)
...... ""'0
LL.J
=>
-I
a:U)
>N
.
o
i.
FACTOR
o
o
-
o
o
.
9J. 00
1. 00
2.00 3.00 ~.oo
GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE
ca ["J"18..
FIGURE 9
CO EMISSIONS
GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE
V=1-Tanh.7465(lO-8)x12.84
5.00
6.00
7.00
-------
functions.
However, a range of values are indicated on the curves
which represent examples discussed in the Section 2.0 Evaluation
Parameters.
This range will allow the evaluator to judge the position
of the candidate system with respect to the examples, and assign a
value which would not be restricted to three or four discrete values.
An example of this type of value judgment curve is shown in Figure 10.
Value judgment curves for 91 evaluation parameters are presented
in the following sections.
The shapes of the curves are based on .
availabl~ analytical data, and the judgment of.DAAPSD and MITRE
. personnel.
The equations for each curve are also presented.
These
equations are the value functions used in the Structured Value Analysis
model to calculate the "Value to the User" corresponding to a measured
parameter value.
The two points shown on each curve are control
points used in modifying the curve slope.
92
-------
o
o
-
\0
"'"
\f)
,...
o
a:
w
(f)
::>
o
DU')
~o
w
::>
.-J
a:U')
>N
o
C)
o
.
9J.OO
FACTOR
SERIOUS
SAFETY
PROBLEMS
0.20
V=Tanh3.493x6.125
0.40
0.60
SAFETY - SERVICE
FIGURE 10
COMP ARABLE TO
IC ENGINE SAFETY
DURING SERVICE
0.80
1. 00
COMPLEXITY OF PRODUCTION CHANGEOVER
-------
4.1.2
Emissions Category
Carbon Monoxide Emission
Hydrocarbon Emission
Oxides of Nitrogen Emission
Sulfur Oxides Emissions
. Particulates
Smoke
Odor
Maximum External Noise
Maximum Idle Noise
Maximum Low Speed Noise
Internal Noise
94
-
Curve 1.1
Curve 1.2
Curve 1.3
Curve 1.4
Curve 1.5
Curve 1.6
Curve 1.7
Curve 1.8
Curve 1.9
Curve 1.10
Curve 1.11
-------
FACTOR
V=1-Tanh.7465(10-S)x12.S4
o
o
-
U')
,....
.
o
a:
U.J
en --
=>
0
QU')
\0 ~o
lJ1
U.J
=>
--'
a:U')
>(\1
.
o
o
o
.
9J. 00
1. 00
2.00 3.00 4.00
GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE
5.00
6.00
7.00
CD E"J"JDH
- CURVE
1.1
-------
... ~, .
. .
FACTOR
.0
o
-
V> .
. r-
\0
0'\
.
o
a::
w
(f)
=>.
.0
oV>
1-0
W
=>
.;..J
a: V>
>N
.
.0
a
o
.
. 9J. 00
0.10
V=1-Tanh242.4x7.048.
0.20 0.30 O.~O
GRRMS/VEHICLE MlLE
0.50
HC E"1'SICIN
CURVE
1.2
. 0.60
" .
0.70
-------
FACTOR
o
o
-
V)
,....
.
o
a:
w
en
.:::>
0
eV)
\0 r-o
......
w
.:::>
-1
a: V)
>N
.
o
o
o
.
9:>.00
. ,
O. 10
0.20 0.30 o.~o
GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE
0.50
..ax ["IS'laN
CURVE
1.3
V=1-Tanh3782xlO.70
0.60
0.70
-------
FACTOR
o
o
-
tn
,...
.
o
a:
w
(J')
.:::>
0
atn
'-0
\0 W
C»
:::>
-1
I a:tf>
I
i >N
.
o
V=1-Tanh12. 39x2. 394 .
o
o
.
9J.00
,
O. 10
0.20 .0;30 .0.ijO
GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE
0.50
0.60
0.70
58X E"USJ8N
CURVE
1.4
-------
FACTOR
o
o
.
-
Lf)
,.....
.
o
a::
w
(f)
=>
0
elf)
\C) """0
\0
W
=>
--'
a::Lf)
>N
.
o
o
o
.~
9J.oo
,
0.02
, I I
O.O~ 0.06 0.08
GRAMS/VEHICLE MILE
'A"TJCUlA1£~
CURVE
1.5
I
0.10
I,' ,
V=1-Tanh187.Sxl.787
I
O. 12
1
O. 1 ~
-------
,.
1.~
TERN
..
o
o
-
LI)
,....
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o
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w
(f)
::>
0
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o
w
::>
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>N
.
o
,
o
o
.
C1J. 00
1. 00
2.00
.,'
> '
3.00 . 4.00
f. OPACITY
,"eKE
CURVE
1.6
V=1~Tanh.05004x2.394
5.00
;.:..: _6 '''00
. ";". ..,
"
7.00
. '. ...~, .
"
, ,
~
. - -
-------
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o
~
.
a
a:::
w
en
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a
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t-o
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.
a
a
a
TERM
% DETECTING ODOR
-
V)
r-
UNDETECTABLE
a
a
.
9J.OO
1. 00
20
o
sn
20
DETECTABLE
2.00
3.00
5.00
1,1.00
aoaf'
CURVE
1.7
V=1-Tanh.1479xl.564
6.00
I
7.00
-------
TERM
o
o.
-
an
r-
.
o
a::
w
if)
=>
0
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~ ""-0
o
N
W
=>
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a: an
>N
.
o
o
o
.
9>.00
I.
20.00
LlO.OO
60.00
DBA
.80.00
"AXJ"Utt NCU'E
CURVE
1.8
V=1-Tanh.1046 (lO-43)x23.05
100.00
120.00
1110.0
-------
TERM
o
o
....
LI)
r-
.
o
cr:
w
r.n
::::>
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...... 1-0
O
w W
::::>
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>N
.
o
o
o
. .
9J. 00
20.00
40.00
60.00
OBR
80.00
"AXJ"U" JDLE N8I5E
CURVE
1.9
V=1-Tanh.1918(lO-33)x18. 4
100.00
120.00
1l10.0
-------
TERM
o
o
-
I/)
~
.
o
a::
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(f)
-=>
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1-0
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=>
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>N
.
o
o
o
.
9J.00
20.00
lIC-.OO
60.00
- DBA
60.00
"AXJ"U" law '~EEO Nel'E
CURVE
1.10
V=1-Tanh.4092 (lO-34)xlS.S4
100.00
120.00
- lliO. 0
-------
TERM
o
o
-
Lf)
,...
.
o
cr::
w
en
=>
0
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...... ~o
o
VI
W
=>
.-1
a:Lf)
>N
.
o
o
c
.
~.OO
20.00
LtQ.OO
60.00
DBA
JH1E"HAL Hal'E
CURVE
1.11
80.00
. .
V=1-Tanh.6078(lO-37)x20.S3
100.00
120.00
1LtO.O
-------
4.1.3
Operating Performance Category
Starting Time - 65% Full Power
Starting - Cold Soak
Curve 2.1
Curve 2.2
Curve 2.3
Curve 2.4
Starting - Reliability
Idle Operations - Fuel Consumption
Idle Operations - Creep Torque
Idle Operations - Sustained
Curvp. 2.5
Curve 2.6
Curve 2.7
Curve 2.8
Curve 2.9
Curve 2.10
Curve 2.11
Curve 2.12
Curve 2. 13
Curve 2. 14
Acceleration - 10 Seconds
Acceleration - 25 - 70 MPH
DOT High Speed Pass
Cruise Speed
Maximum Speed
Grade Sp~ed
Range - Cruise
Range - Urban
106
-------
t/')
r--
.
o
a:
UJ
U1
::>
0
Qt/')
I-' t-O
o
-..J
UJ
:::>
-1
a:t/')
:>N
.
o
TERM
o
o
-
o
,0
.
9:3.00
1.10.00
60.00 80. 00
SECONDS
20.00
STRRlINC 1I"E - 6S~ fULL rOw£R
CURVE
2.1
V=1-Tanh.4898(lO-3)x2.009
100.00
120.00
140.0
-------
.....
o
(X) .
.
(:)
cr:
w
en
:::>
. 0
D'"
'-0
W
:::>
.-J
a:",
>N
.0
TERM
V=1~Tanh.3084(lO-2)xl.731
o
o
-
I
56.00
'"
,....
o
o
----.
. I
.qO.OO qB.OO
.
t:t.00
16.00
2q.00 32.00
SECONDS
8.00
'TA"TING - calD ,aRK
CURVE
2.2
-------
TERM
a
a
-
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,....
.
a
cr:
w
en
:::>
a
DU)
..... ~o
o
\0 W
:::>
-.J
a:U)
>(\1
.
a
o
a
.
9:>.00
2.00
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V=1-Tanh.8271(lO-2)x2.S97
6. 00 8. 00
% FAILURE
10.00
12.00
51AftTJNC - ft£LJA8JlJTT
CURVE
2.3
111.00
-------
TERM
o
o
-
. IJ)
r-
......
......
o
.
..0
a:
w
(f)
:::>
o
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V=1-Tanh.4905(lO~3)x2.874
lI.OO
8~00
12.00 16.00
I. ~F FULL P~WER
2lt.OO
20.00.
IDLE 8fE~TI8NS - fUEL C8N'U"fTI8N
CURVE
2.4
28.00
-------
TERM
o
o
.
-
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f"'-
.
o
a::
w
en
::::>
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>N
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o
o
o
.' .
.
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20.00
lIO.OO
60.00 80.00 .
F~OT POUNDS
Val-Tanh.2071(lO-7)x4.566
IDlE arEAA110N, - CREEP laRQU£
CURVE
2.5
100.00
120.00
tllO.O
-------
TERM
a
. a .
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If)
r-
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en
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a
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a
9J.oo
20.00
40.00
r I
60.00 80.00
MINUTES
IDLE ePE~ATleNS - SUSTAINED
CURVE
2.6
V=Tanh.1065(lO-G)x5.194
I
100.00
,
120.00
,
140.0
-------
......
......
w
I..
I
1.0
~
~
tI)
:::>
o
~
~
:::>
:i1
:>
0.5
0.0
200
TERM
300
400
x
V =190
- 1. 315
v = 1
V=4--1L-
800
500
800
600
700
FEET
ACCELERATION - 10 SECONDS
CURVE
2.7
---
---.---
. -
250~ x ~490
400 ~ x S 600
600 .s x .s 800
-------
~
tI.I
;::I
...... 0
...... H 0.5
~ ~
, ;::I
.~
~
1.0
0.0
6
TERM
7
8
9.
I
10
I .
11
. I
12
v = .66x-4.33
6.5 2.X2. 8
v = 1
82.x~13
v = 2.45-.11lx .
13~x~22
I
13
I
16
, 21
22
I
15
I
14
19
17
18
20
SECONDS
ACCELERATION 25-70 MPH
CURVE
2.8
-------
C1
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o
f-<
~ ~ 0.5
VI ~
:>
1.0
TERM
0.0
1000
HOO
1200
1300
v = .0lx-10
10~x$1100
v == 1
110~x$1350
x
V = 4-. 450
185~x$1800
1400
1700
1800
1500
1600
FEET
DOT HIGH SPEED PASS
CURVE
2.9
-------
~
~
en
::>
~ 0
0\ E-< 0.5
. ~
. ::> .
~
1.0.
0.0
60
TERM
65
75
80
70
MILES PER HOUR
CRUISE SPEED
CURVE
'. 2.10
v = .0666x-4.33
V = 1
85
90
95
65
-------
1.0
~
w
en
~
..... ~ 0.5
.....
" w
~
~
~
0.0
75
TERM
--- -- -..----
.
80.
85
v = .2x-16
80~~85
v = 1
85~x~5
v = 7.33-.0666x 95~~110
90
.95
no
100
105
MILES PER HOUR
. MAXIMUM SPEED
CURVE
2.11
-------
o
. 0
TERM
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-
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G""DE '''[[0
CURVE
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I .
. ,
1LA.00
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TERM
50.00
100.00
V-Tanh. 3063 (10-20)xS. 664
150.00 200.00
'MILES' .
.250.00
...
RANGE - CRUISE
CURVE
2.13
.300.00
;350.0
"
-------
o
o
-
II)
,....
.
o
a:
w
(f)
=>
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...... Oil)
N ~O
o
W
=>
--1
N
.
o
o
o
.
93. 00
TERM
50.00
100.00
V=Tanh. 3063 (10-20)xS. 664
150.00 . 200.00
MILES
250.00
300.00
350.0
RANGE - URBAN
CURVE
2.14
-------
4.1.4
Acceptability Category
Ease of Operation
Ease of Starting
Driver Comfort
Versatility - Styling
. Versatility - Minimum Size
Versatility - Maximum Size
121
..,
Curve 3.1
Curve 3.2
Curve 3.3
Curve 3.4
Curve 3.5
Curve 3.6
-------
.
o
a:
w
U1
=>
o
eLO
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I-"
N
N
w
=>
-1
a:LO
>N
.
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TERN
o
o
-
LO
,....
-. IC ENGINE OPERATION
o
o
.
9J.OO
0.20
0.40
0.60
EA'E ar a~E~ATlaN'
CURVE
3.1
0.80
V=Tanh1.950x1.223
1.00
-------
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o
. .
-
......
N
W
\l)
r-
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a:
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(.f)
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o
o
.
93.00
TERM
0.20
o.~o
SIMILAR TO IC ENGINE
STARTING OPERATION
0.60
0.80
EA5E Of 9TAATING
CURVE
3.2
V=Tanh14.97x4.112
1. 00
-------
TERM
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o
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. 2.394
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AIR
0.60 . 0.80
C~MFCJRT FACTCJR
1.00
1. 20
0''1 nit C0ttl'8In
CURVE
3.3
~
1. LAO
-------
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V=Tanhl.95xl.223
a
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a
ex:
w TO STYLING
(J1
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,
0.40
I
0.60
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0.80
,
1. 00
o
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VERSATILITY - STY~ING
CURVE
3.4
-------
'.
I
TERM
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,... .
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. 0
cr::
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o
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.
91.00
80.00
160.00 2~0.OO
- POUNDS
32Q.00
*10
VE~'ATJLITY - "IMJ~ 'Ilf
CURVE
3.5
V=1-Tanh.2007(lO-20)x6.054
I
~oo.oo
I
~80.00
I
560.0
-------
o
o
-
lO
,....
.
o
a:
w
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:::::>
0
OlO
~ t-O
N
....,
W
:::::>
--l
a:lO
>N
.
o
o
o
.
'13.00
TERM
10.00
V=Tanh.l~90(lO-20)x5.681
20.00
30.00
P~UNDS
1l0~00
*10
50.00
60.00.
VER9RIILITY - "RXI"U~ SIZE
CURVE
3.6
70.00
-------
4.1.5
Operating Environment Category.
Engine Operating Temperature - Max Curve 4.1
Engine Operating Temperature - Min Curve 4.2
Reduced Power at 11000 feet Curve 4.3
Reduced Power Due to Adverse Weather Curve 4.4
Reduced Power - 40MPH Wind Curve 4.5
Reduced Power - 75 MPHWind Curve 4.6
Operability in Dust or Sand
Curve 4~7
128 .
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CURVE
4.1
V=Tanh.6354(10-8)x5.727
,
40.00
I
48.00
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56.00
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CURVE
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I
70.00
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4.1.6
Safety Category
Propulsion System Safety
Safety-Energy Supply Normal Operation
Safety-Energy Supply High Speed Accident
Safety-Energy Supply Low Speed Accident
Safety - Production
Safety - Service
Curve 5.1
Curve 5.2
Curve 5.3
Curve 5.4
Curve 5.5
Curve 5.6
136
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BINARY SCALE:
HAZARDOUS FAILURE OF PROPULSION SYSTEM POSSIBLE
HAZARDOUS FAILURE OF PROPULSION SYSTEM NOT POSSIBLE
0.20
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SERIOUS
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CURVE
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SONE
SAFETY
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0.40
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REASONABLY
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SAFETY ENE~GY SUPPLY HIGH SPEED ACCIDENT
CURVE
5.3
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FACTOR
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a SOME
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'AfETT ENE~GY ,urPLT Lew srEEO ACCIDENT
CURVE
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SAFETY
PROBLEMS
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0.40
0.60
SAFETT - P"OOUC1ION
CURVE
5.5
COMPARABLE TO
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PRODUCTION SAFETY
0.80
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COMPARABLE TO
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.DURING SERVICE
0.40
0.60
0.80
1. OU
SRfETY - SERVICE
CURVE
5.6
-------
4.1. 7
Personnel and Facilities Category
Time to Consumer Availability
Lead Time - Production Changeover
Curve 6.1
Curve 6.2
Curve 6.3
Complexity of Production Changeover
Lead Time - Field $ervice Changeover
Curve 6.4
Complexity of Field Service Changeover
Lead Time for Production Training
Education Level - Production
Lead Time for Service Training
Education Level - Service
Curve 6.5
Curve 6.6
Curve 6.7
Curve 6.8
Availability of Energy Stations
Curve 6.9
Curve 6.10
143
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10.00
20.00
30.00 40.00
WEEKS
50.00
60.00
LEAD TI"E fOA ~AeDUCTleN TRAINING
CURVE
6.6
70.00
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YEARS
V=1-Tanh.4193(lO-9)xS.S19
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15. 00 20. 00
MONTHS
LEAD TI"£ re" 'E"VICr l~~J"INC
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6.8
V=1-Tanh.01768xl.501
25.00
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AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY STATIONS
CURVE
6.10
-------
4.1.8
Propulsion System Technical Parameters
Energy Storage - Specific Volume
Energy Storage - Specific Weight
Energy Storage - Specific Cost
(Consumable Elements)
Energy Storage - Specific Cost
(Non-Consumable Elements)
Energy Storage -Known Fuel Reserves
Energy Storage - Ease of Refueling
Energy Converter - Specific Volume
Energy Converter - Specific Weight
Energy Converter - Specific Cost
Energy Converter - Power Range -
Minimum lIP
Energy Converter - Power Range -
MaximumHP
Energy Converter - Stall/Design
Point Torque Ratio
Energy Converter - Minimum/Design
Point RPM Ratio
Energy Converter - Regeneration
Power Efficiency
Energy Converter - Absorption
Power Effectiveness
Energy Converter - Mechanical
Efficiency at Maximum Continuous HP
Energy Converter - Response to Load
Change
Energy Converter - Overload
Capability
Energy Converter - Sensitivity
to Fuel Quali ty
Power Conditioner - Specific Volume
'Power Conditioner - Specific Weight
Power Conditioner - Specific Cost
154
Curve 7.1
Curve 7.2
Curve 7.3
Curve 7.4
Curve 7.5
Curve 7.6
Curve 7.7
Curve 7.8
Curve 7. 9
Curve 7.10
Curve 7.11
Curve 7. 12
Curve 7.13
Curve 7.14
Curve 7. 15
Curve 7.16'
Curve 7.17
Curve 7.18
Curve 7.19
Curve 7.20
Curve 7.21
Curve 7.22
-------
Power Conditioner - Power
Range Minimum
Power Conditioner - Power
Range Maximum
Curve 7.23
Curve 7.24
Power Conditioner - Reversing
Power Effectiveness
Curve 7.25
Power Conditioner - ~lechanical
Efficiency at Maximum Continuous
Power
Power Conditioner - Mechanical
Efficiency in Reverse Power Direction
Curve 7.26
Curve 7.27
Overall Propulsion System - Average
Efficiency at the Wheel,
1'1ode 1
Overall Propulsion System - Average
Efficiency at the Wheel,
Mode 2 .
Curve 7.28
Curve 7.29
Overall Propulsion System - Total
Volume
Overall Propulsion System - Total
Weight
Overall Propulsion System - Use
of Scarce Materials
Curve 7.30
Curve 7.31
Curve 7.32
155
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ENERGY STORAGE - SPECIFIC VOLUME
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ENERGY STORAGE - SPECIFIC WEIGHT
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DOLLRRS/HP HOUR * 1 0-\.
ENERGY STORAGE - SPECIFIC COSTS (CONSUMABLE ELEMENTS)
0.ij8
CURVE
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ENERGY STORAGE - SPECIFIC COSTS (NON-CONSUMABLE ELEMENTS)
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CURVE
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CUBIC FEET/HP
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ENERGY CONVERTER - SPECIFIC VOLUME
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ENERGY STORAGE - EASE OF REFUELING
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ENERGY CONVERTER - SPECIFIC vffiIGHT
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ENERGY CONVERTER - SPECIFIC COST
CURVE
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HP-MINIMUM
110.00
ENERGY CONVERTER - POWER RANGE - MINIMUM HP
CURVE
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240.00
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HP-MAXIMUM
ENERGY CONVERTER - POWER RANGE - MAXIMUM HP
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4.00
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ENERGY CONVERTER - STALL/DESIGN POINT TORQUE RATIO
CURVE
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ENERGY CONVERTER - MINIMUM/DESIGN POINT RPM RATIO
CURVE
7.13
L~o
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o
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W
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o
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o
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-
.
9:).00
0.20
0.60
0.80
0.40
ENERGY CONVERTER -
REGENERATIVE ,eWER EFFICIENCY
CURVE
7.14
V=Tanh2.145xl.5
1. 00
1. 20
1. 40
-------
o
o
-
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r-
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a:
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(f)
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o
o
o
o
. .
9J 000
V=Tanh6.716x2.612
o. 10
oosb
0.20
0.30
o.~o
0.50
ENERGY CONVERTER -
A858ftPTJ8N PewE" EFFECTJVENE"
CURVE
7.15
0.70
-------
.....
-..J
.....
.
o
a::
w
en
::J
o
DlI)
1-0
W
::J
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>N
.
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o
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.....
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r--
o
o
o
0.20
O.ttO
0.60"
V=Tanh4.578x1.793
0.80
1. 00
1.20 "
ENERGY CONVERTER - MECHANICAL EFFICIENCY AT MAXIMUM CONTINUOUS HP
CURVE
7.16
1. LIO
-------
I.
&n
,...
.
o
a:
w
en
=>
o
c&n
""0
....
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N
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=>
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>N
.
o
1.669
V-I-Tanh.1003x
o
o
.
-
.0
o
.
~.OO
. 3. 00 Ii. 00 .
SECONDS
5.00
6.00
1.00
2~00
ENERGY CONVERTER ~ RESPONSE TO LOAD CHANGE
CURVE
7.17
7.00
-------
o
o
......
lI)
,.....
.
o
cr:
w
U1
=>
0
QlI)
1'-0
...... W
-...J =>
w
...J
a:lI)
>C\I
.
o
o
o
~.oo
V=Tanh.1003x2.644
0.80
3.20
It.OO
It.80
2.1.10
1. 60
ENERGY CONVERTER - OVERLOAD CAPABILITY
CURVE
7.18
5.60
-------
g
.
..
......
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,..
.
a
II:
w
en
:::a.
Q
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.
o
Q
Q
.
Q"
V=1-Tanh2.269xl.938
L
M
H
ENERGY CONVERTER
SENSITIVITY TO FUEL QUALITY
CURVE
7.19
-------
I/)
l"'-
.
o
cc
w
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:::)
0
c'"
.... '-0
'-I
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W
=>
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>N
.
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V=1-Tanh41.46xl.037
o
o
.
-
o
o
.
91. 00
0.16 0.2~ 0.32 a.~o
CUBIC FEET /HP Mlo-t
0.~8
0.08
. . POWER CONDITIONER - SPECIFIC VOLUME
CURVE
7.20
0.56
-------
II)
r-
.
o
cc
lLJ
(f)
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ell)
..... ""0
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>N
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o
o
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-
o
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.
CU.oo
0.80
1. 60
2.'&0 3.20
LBHIHP
POWER CONDITIONER - SPECIFIC WEIGHT
CURVE
7.21
V-I-Tanh.3404xl.333
'&.00
'&.80
5.60
-------
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l"-
.
o
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(f')
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93.00
0.80 .
1.60
2. '&0 3.20
O~LLARS/HP
POWER CONDITIONER - SPECIFIC COST
CURVE
7.22
V=1-Tanh.4087xl.167
'1.00
'&.80
5.60
-------
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"
.
o
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(IV)
>N
.
o
o
o
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o
.
~.OO
~o.oo
80.00
120.00 160.00
HP-MINIMUM
POWER CONDITIONER - POWER RANGE
CURVE
7.23
V;1-Tanh2.163(lO-3)xl.364
200.00
2~0.00
280.0
-------
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II)
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a:
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.
o
o
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tt.oo
80.00
160.00
240.00. 320.00
HP-MRXIMUM
POWER CONDITIONER - POWER RANGE
CURVE
7.24
V=Tanhl.085 (lO-5)x2.072
400.00
480.00
560.0
-------
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o.
.
.-.
.....
00
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,...
. .
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a:
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en
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1-0
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o
o
0.20
0.110
0.60
0..80
V=Tanhl.9S0xl.223
1.00
POWER CONDITIONER - REVERSING POWER EFFECTIVENESS
CURVE
7.25
1.20
1 . 110
-------
o
o
.
-
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,...
.
o
a:
LU
(/)
:::>
0
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..... 1-0
())
.....
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:::>
--1
a:U')
>N
.
o
o
o
.
~.OO
0.20
0.'10
0.60
0.80
V=Tanh3.S33x12.81
1.00
1.20
POWER CONDITIONER - MECHANICAL EFFICIENCY AT MAxIMUM CONTINUOUS POWER
CURVE
7.26
1.'10
-------
o
o
-
\n
,....
.
o
a:
LU
en
::J
o
C'"
......
.... 0
CO
N UJ
::J
-l
a:",
>N
.
o
o
o
.
9J. 00
V-Tanh2.442x5.609
0.20
0.60
0.80
1.20
1.00
0.110
POWER CONDITIONER - MECHANICAL EFFICIENCY IN REVERRE POWF.R nlRECTION
CURVE
7.27
1.110
-------
I/)
,....
.
o
a:
w
(f)
::>
0
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...... 1-0
00
\.;.) w
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.
o
o
o
-
V=Tanh3.207xl.09G
0.80
1. 00
1. 20
o
o
9J.oo
0.20
0.1I0
0.60
OVERALL PROPULSION SYSTEM - .AVERAGE EFFICIENCY AT THE WHEEL. ~~DE 1
CURVE
7.28
1. 40
-------
lf)
r-
o
a:
w
(f1
::J
0
elf)
,.... 1-0
00
~
W
::J
-.J
a:lf)
>N
.
o
V=Tanh2.627xl.134
o
o
-
o
o
0.20 O.~O 0.60 0.80 1.00
OVERALL PROPULSION SYSTEM - AVERAGE EFFICIENCY AT THE WHEEL, MODE 2
CURVE
7.29
1. 20
1.~0
-------
o
o
....
Lf)
t-
.
o
cr::
w
(f)
=>
0
eLf)
..... '-0
ex>
VI
W
=>
-1
a:Lf)
>N
.
o
o
o
. .
CtJ. 00
8.00
16.00
V=1-Tanh4.099(10-10)x5.885
2lL 00 . 32. 00
CUBIC FEET
lIO.OO
lI8.00
56.00
OVERALL PROPULSION SYSTEM - TOTAL VOLUME
CURVE
7.30
-------
o
o
-
LI)
,...
.
a
cr:
W
U1
=>
0
QLI)
.
~o
......
00
0\ W
=>
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>'"
.
o
o
o
.
~.OO
110.00
V=1-Tanh9.193(10-27)x8.139
80.00
120. 00 \ 60 . 00
LBM K10
200.00
2ljO.00
280.0
OVERALL PROPULSION SYSTEM - TOTAL WEIGHT
CURVE
. 7.31
-------
. .
V=Tanh3.046 (lO-3)xl.167
o
o
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,...
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a:
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co
-...,J
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>N
.
o
o
o
110.00
80.00
120.00
2110.00
160.00
200.00
280.0
OVERALL PROPULSION SYSTEM - USE OF SCARCE MATERIALS
CURVE
7.32
-------
4.1.9
Reliability and Maintenance
Complexity of System
Ease of Routine Service
Expense of Unscheduled Repairs
Curve 8.1
Curve 8.2
Curve 8.3
Curve 8.4
Curve 8.5 .
Design Life
Period Between Routine Servicing
Estimated Mean Miles Between
Failures
Curve B.6
lBB
-------
&n
,....
.
o
a:
I.&J
(/1
:)
0
c&n
......
o
~
(X) I.&J
\0
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a:&n
>N
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o
"
. V=1-Tanh6.74S(lO-3)xl.118
o
o
.
o
o
-
.
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'10.00
80.00 . 120.00 160.00 200.00
. LORDED. MOVING PARTS
COMPLEXITY OF SYSTEM
CURVE
.8.1
2110.00
280.0
-------
a
Q
..
.....
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o
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o
a:
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t-Q
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o
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V=TanhZ.Z69xl.938
L
M
H
EASE OF ROUTINE SERVICE
CURVE
8.2
-------
"
V=1-Tanhl.991(lO-2)xl.329
o
0
-
,
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en
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. i
9J. 00
I
8.00
, , , 1
16.00 2Q.00 32.00 ~O.OO
I. INITIAL VEHICLE COST
,
~8.00
,
56.00
EX'EN'E 8r UN'CMEOULEO ~E'RIA
CURVE
8.3
-------
o
o
-
Ion
,...
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a:
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(/)
.:::)
0
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..... ""'0
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o
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80.00
V=Tanh7.893(lO-17)x4.S04
160.00
2~0.00 3~0.00
H OU AS. N 1 0 .
~OO.OO
DESIGN LIFE
CURVE
8.4
'&80.00
560.0
-------
.f
I !
......
\0
W
.
o
ex:
L&J
(J")
=>
o
Can
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L&J
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et:an
>N
.
o
o
o
-
an
"
o
o
1j.00
8.00
..
12. 00 16. 00
MONTHS
V=Tanh.l003xl.081
20.00
21j.OO
PERIOD BETWEEN ROUTINE SERVICING
CURVE
8.5
','
, .
, .
28.00
-------
o
o
-
lI)
.-
~
\0
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.
o
a:
w
(f)
::>
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t-o
w
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>N
. .
o
o
.0
.
9J. 00
V=Tanh3.92 (10-15)x3. 102
10.00
20.00
30.00
MILES
LI~. 00
M 1 0 .
50.00
E,T U,~T[D "EAN "JU' enW[[N 'AJLU..E'
-=-----==--"""--
CURVE
8.6
60.00
70.00
-------
if'
"
. . :.- :.?
, .
" ? ..,'j
"'. ...'
.,':-
~.~,
r
,t'. ,:
4.2
Category Va1~~ Sets
. ;
"
~ .' .'
The catego~yya1ue set establishes the relationship among the
"", ,..
parameter value ~unctions within a particular category; A~parameter
" .
value function ~ either be expressed as a term or a factor in the
( .
value set: a ~~:m tieing related to other category parameters by an
additive re1atI~n~bip and a factor being related to other category
< .
parameters by :f mu~tip1icative relationship.
Each parameter
~,. ...
designated a ter~-'~s also given a weight which establishe$ the
relative importa:1t;e of the term.
The sum of these weights is equal
.: ...'f'
, .
to one.
.. ..',
,
The general equation
>. n.
y~ - n Fj (Xj)
~~; j"l
for the category value
m
1: AiFi(Xi)
i-1
set is:
.. .
where
..'" .'
"
~. . .",\., ,
, ..
m ,
1:.A - 1
i
i-l,:.,. ,
. \'
v
c
-
ca~egory value
A
- w~ights assigned to terms
"alue function
F
-
-.
x
-
,- "
parameter measurement value
"'00-,..
.,
i and j are i~aices.
: ~. ,
The following value sets have been established for the eight
,,'
.
evaluation categories.
These value sets represent the consensus of
,
DAAPSD and MI'IJt~ '.eersonne1.
,
.~ .~
I .. ,. ....
~~, ~
~','"
.-:...
195
.. .
, ,
" .j
. ,.(
~"
-------
4.2.1
Emission Value Set
The emission category value set is as follows:
VE = [(Vl.I)(V1.2)(V1.3)(V1.4)(V1.S)] [.2(V1.6)+.2(Vl. 7) + .12(V1.8)
+ .14(V1.9) + .2(V1.10> + .14(V1.11>]
The value functions and value judgment curves for the category
,
parameters VI.I through VI.II are found in Section 4.1.2.
4.2.2
Operating Performance Value Set
The operating performance category value set is as follows:
VOP = .06V2.1 + .OSV2.2 + .06V2.3 + .06V2.4 + .04V2.S + .OSV2.6
+ .07V2.7 + .IV2.8 + .09V2.9 + .IV2.10'+ .05V2.11 + .07V2.12
+ .09V2.13 + .IIV2.14
The value functions and value judgment curves for the category
parameters V2.1 through V2.14 are found in Section 4.1.3.
4.2.3 Acceptability Value Set
The acceptability category value set is as follows:
VA = .25 V3.l + .lSV3.2 + .20V3.3 + .16V3.4 + .12 V3.5 + .12 V3.6
The value functions and value judgment curves for the category
parameters V3.1 thorugh V3.6 are found in Section 4.1.4.
196
-------
4.2.4
Operating Environment Value Set
The operating environment category value set is as follows:
VOE = (V4.l)(V4.2)(V4.4) G3V4.3 + .4V4.S + .lSV4.6 + .lSV4.7]
The value functions and value judgment curves for the category
parameters V4.l through V4.7 are found in Section 4.1.S.
4.2.5
Safety Value Set
The safety category value set is as follows:
Vs = (VS.l)(VS.2)(VS.3)(VS.4)(VS.S)(VS.6)
The value functions and value judgment curves for the parameters
VS.1 through VS.6 are found in Section 4.1.6.
4.2.6
Personnel and Facilities Value Set
The personnel and facilities category value set is as follows:
VpF = .2V6.1 + .lV6.2 + .lV6.3 + .lV6.4 + .lV6.S + .lV6.6
+. .06V6.7 + .lV6.8 + .09V6.9 + .OSV6.10
The value functions and value judgment curves for parameters
V6.1 through V6.10 are found in Section 4.1.7.
4.2.7
Propulsion System Technical Parameters Value Set
Due to the large number of parameters involved in the evaluation
of propulsion system technology, the value set was sub-divided into
five parts as follows:
197
-------
v = . 3VR
Propulsion. esource
System Consumption
+ .2VVolume and + .2VF. li d
ue ng an
Weight Operating
Convenience
where:
.3VR
esource
'Consumption
.2VVolume
. and Weight
. 2V Fueling and
Operating
Convenience
.2V 1 i
Simp ic ty
of Design.
.1Vlnitial
Cost.
. + .2VSimplicity + .1Vlnitial
of Design Cost
= V7.3[.07(V7.l6)(V7.26) + .05 (V7.28 + V7.29)
+ .03(V7.14)(V7.2S)(V7.27)] + .05(V7.5 + V7.32)
= [.005(V7.l)(V7.l6)(V7.26) + .005(V7.7)(V7.26)
+ .005(V7.20) + .065V7.30 + .007(V7.2)(V7.16)
(V7.26) + .007(V;~8)(V7.26) + .007(V7.21)
+ . 099V7. 31]
= [.05 (V 7 ~ 6 + V 7.17 + V 7.18 + V 7.19)]
=
[.025 (V7.l0 + V7.ll + V7.l3 + V7.l5 + V7.23
+ V7.24) + .05 (V7.12)]
.= [.04 (V7.4)(V7.l6) (V7.26) + .03 (V7.9)(V7.26)
+ .03 (V7.22)]
The value functions and value judgment curves for parameters
V7.1 through V7.32 are found in Section 4.1.8.
198
-------
4.2.R
Reliability and Maintenance Value Set
The reliabiiity and maintenance category value set is as follows:
VRM = .15Va.l + .lVa.2 + .lVe.3 + .3Va.4 + .lVa.5 + .25Va.6
The value functions and value judgment curves for parameters
va.l through Va.6 are found in Section 4.1.9.
4.3
System Value Set
A total AAPS value set which combines the category value sets
into one equation was developed.
This value set will be used to
produce the structured value of the AAPS candidates.
VSystem = (VE)(~S) [.21Vop + .2VST + .2VA + .15VpF + . 12VOE + .12VRM]
The two critical categories, emissions and safety, are considered
as factors in the system value set.
&1 AAPS candidate which has high
emissions or poor safety characteristics will therefore receive a low
system structured v~ue.
The categories of operating performance
(Vop)' system technical parameters (VST) and acceptability (VA) have
61% of the weight of all terms. These categories are used to evaluate
the AAPS candidate's drivability, consumer acceptability and the
technical and cost characteristics of the propulsion system.
27% of
the weight is assigned to categories which provide an indication of
the AAPS candidates productability and maintainability.
The category
used to evaluate the ability of the AAPS candidate to operate in the
climate of the United States is given the remaining 12% of the weight.
199
-------
SECTION V
ANALYSIS OF MODEL
5.1
Method of Analysis
The AAPS Structured Value Analysis model was tested and analyzed
to determine if it performed in the manner desired. to identify critical
and non-critical paramete.rs and to identify changes to the model which
would improve results.
It was decided to subject the SVA model to a
sensitivity analysis whereby the contribution of each parameter to
the category value could be studied.
In order to perform this sen-
sitivity analysis. a computer program was deveioped and is described
in Appendix II.
The category value sets and the value functions for the para-
meters. as defined in Section 4.0. were programmed into the computer.
A data set of parameter values corresponding to the .5 value to, the
user point (PV.5) (Figure1l). was then used to calculate a base value
(CVB)for the category.
The range (R) of the parameter was calculated
by taking the absolute value of the difference between the parameter
value where value to the user is zero (PVO) and the parameter value
where ~he value to the user is unity (PVl).
New parameter value
points corresponding to tlO% (P-.lR. P.lR). t20%(P-.2R. P.2R). and
't30% (P -. 3R. p. 3R) of the range (R) were calculated.
New category values CVp and
, -.lR
using P-.lR. P+.lR for one parameter
CVp were then calculated by
+.lR
in the category value set while
holding the other parameters in the value set at P V. 5 .
change in the category base value was then calculated.
The'percentage
200
-------
1.
~
~
tI.I
~
N 0 0.5
o ~
I-' ~.
~
~
0.0
VALUE JUDGMENT CURVE
Pvo
<
P-.1R PV.5
R
P.1R
FIGURE 11
PARAMETER VALUES
V = Tanh xn
PV1
>
-------
CVp - CVB
-.lR
CVB
and
CVp - CVB
+.lR
CVB
the computer program performs this calculation for each parameter
for tlO%, t20%, and t30% range.
It is then possible to determine
the % change in category value resulting from a change in a single
parameter value.
those parameters which, when varied, result in the largest
change in the category value are the most sensitive and have the
largest influence on the category value.
5.2
Results of Analysis
Each of the eight evaluation categories were subjected to the
sensitivity analysis.
The results, conclusions and recommendations
for each category are discussed below.
5.2.1
Emiss ions.
The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the CO, .
NO , HC~ 80 and particulates had the greatest effect on the category
x x.
value.
The effect of these parameters on the category value ranged
between 24.9% to 35.2% for a change in parameter value equivalent to
10% of the range; 47.0 to 67.4% for a 20% change and 64.8% to 88.7%
for a 30% change as is shown in Table III.
The order of parameters
in terms of effect of the category value remained constant until the
30% variation when internal noise dropped from 7th to 9th.place. .
202
-------
It can be concluded that the emission category would produce
results as desired.
The more important emissions do have the greatest
impact on the results of the model.
It can also be concluded that
deletion of the idle noise and maximum noise parameters from future
AAPS SVA models will not have a signifieant impact on the model
results.
It is therefore recommended that th\~ idle noise and maximum
noise parameter be deleted from further consideration as an eva1ua-
tion parameter.
It is also recommended that additional weight be
given to internal noise so that it remains in its relative position of
importance throughout the entire range of variation.
5.2.2
Operating Performance
The sensitivity analysis of the operating performance category
was conducted using the design performance values contained in the
"Design Goals - Six Passenger Automobile" (Appendix I) rather than
the param~ter value corresponding to a value to the user of .5.
This
change was necessary due to the fact that several of the value judg-
ment curves have two parameter values corresponding to a .5 value to
the user.
Table IV presents the results of the sensitivity analysis for
the operating performance category.
As was expected, the category value
is not extremely sensitive to any particular parameter.
This is because
the parameters have weights which are very nearly equal.
The major
impact on the category value occurs when a break point in a value
203
-------
judgment curve ~s reached.
For example. the category value is sensi-
tive to the cruise speed parameter when the parameter value drops
below 80 miles per hour or exceeds 85 miles per hour.
This fact
is evident in the 20% variation listing in Table IV.
While the. results of the sensitivity analysis were as expected.
MITRE recommends the parameter list be reviewed closely to determine
if some of the parameters could be deleted. and thus the sensitivity
of other parameters increased.
Those parameters which MITRE recommends
deleting are the following:
1.
DOT Highspeed Pass - The parameter acceleration - 25-70
provides a similar measure of passing ability. and has
been used in performance tests by Union Oil Company(23)
and Consumer's Report.
2. Maximum Speed - MITRE considers this parameter to be impor-
tant from a safety standpoint.. Therefore. in evaluating
the safety of the propulsion system if the AAPS candidate
cannot be governed to an acceptable maximum speed. it
should be eliminated from consideration.
The parameter
I
cruiSe speed should be the principle speed evaluation para-
meter.
3.
Creep Torque - This parameter could be deleted in favor of
the torque parameters contained in the propulsion system
technical parameters.
.204
-------
4.
Sustained Idle Operations - This parameter could be deleted
without causing a major omission in the evaluation of AAPS
candidates.
5.2.3
Acceptability
The analysis of the acceptability category showed it performed
as expected throughout the entire range of variation with the model
being most sensitive to changes in ease of operation and driver
comfort.
The one exception is the models relatively high sensitivity
to ease of starting as can be seen in Table V.
It is recommended that a lesser weight be placed on ease of starting
and a somewhat greater weight be placed on versatility of styling.
All parameters in this category contribute significantly to the model,
therefore. it is recommended that all parameters be retained.
5.2.4
Operating Environment
The category of operating environment performed as desired
throughout the range of variation.
The model proved to be most
sensitive to minimum and maximum temperatures and the effects of
adverse weather (Table VI).
The impact of varying the values of the
dust and reduced operating performance in 75 mile per hour wind
parameters had little effect on the model's result.
It is. therefore.
recommended that these two parameters be deleted from further con-
sideration.
5.2.5
Safety
The computer results for the sensitivity analysis of this category
does not reflect the category's sensitivity to the propulsion system
safety parameter.
This parameter has a value function which is binary.
205
-------
P AW1ETER
CODE NAME
PARAMETER
EMCO
EMNOX
Carbon Monoxide Emission
Oxides of Nitrogen Emission
Hydrocarbon Emission
Sulfur Oxides Emissions
. EMHC
EMSOX
INTNOISE
SMOKE
Particulates
Maximum Low Speed Noise
. Internal Noise
EMPART .
LSPNOISE
ODOR
IDLNOISE
Smoke
Odor
MAXNOISE
Maximum Idle Noise
Maximum External Noise
206
-------
TABLE III
EMISSION CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 10.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. pas. PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
EMCO 2 1 1 -35.162109 30.~61569 -1.024700
EMNOX 2 3 2 -33.497696 29.366959 -0.98C1126
EMHC 2 2 3 -31.275192 28.099030 -0.925706
EMSOX 2 4 4 -26.459564 26.200150 -0.821020
EMPART 2 5 5 -24.983307 25. 845032 . -0.792467
LS PNOI SE 1 5 6 -7.037911 6.038696 -0.203878
INTNOISE 1 6 7 -7.186053 5.849435 -0.203231
SMOKE 1 1 8 -5.228005 5.178307 -0.162245
ODOR 1 2 9 -4.918939 5.213264 -0.157972
IDLNOISE 1 4 10 -4.929669 4.243008 -0.143012
MAXNOISE 1 3 11 -4.259328 3.649213 -0.123303
PERCENT VARI AT ION IS: 20 .00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
EMCO 2 1 1 -61.490234 53.806111 -1.891146
EMNOX 2 3 2 -64.111792 52.095535 -1.821148
EMHC 2 2 3 -60.556178 50.588120 -1.732865
EM SO x 2 4 4 -50.335358 49.664627 -1.559104
EMPART 2 5 5 -47.016190 50.249985 -1.516481
LS PNOI SE 1 5 6 -13.587985 10.591991 -0.316991
INTNOISE 1 6 1 -12.342190 9.547833 -0.341288
SMOKE 1 1 8 -9.958401 9.828992 -0.308506
. ODOR 1 2 9 -9.190122 10.211217 -0.303516
IDLNOISE 1 4 10 -9.495435 1.448288 -0.264170
MAXNOISE 1 3 11 -8.204502 6.392829 -0.221588
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 30.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
EMCO 2 1 1 -88.102652 10.211533 -2.411638
EMNOX 2 3 2 -86.331955 68.442911 -2.413102
EMHC 2 2 3 -82.151669 61.287211 -2.330CC3
EM SO x 2 4 4 -69.410294 68.850845 -2.155637
EMPART 2 5 5 -64.165625 71.223129 -2.120208
LSPNOISE 1 5 6 -11.888641 13.794860 -0.493979
SMOKE 1 1. 1 -13.160189 13.651256 -0.421313
ODOR 1 2 8 -12.619572 14.743584 -0.426620
INTNOIS!: 1 6 9 -13.848045 11.656615 -0.391645
IDLNOISE 1 4 10 -12.474370 9.105009 -0.345800
MAXNOISE 1 3 11 -10.149595 8.318022 -0.297284
207
-------
PARAMETER
CODE NAME
PARAMETER
AAC2570
CRSSPD
Acceleration - 25 - 70 MPH
Cruise Speed
. HISPPASS
RNGCRSE
. SPDGRADE
DOT High Speed Pass
Range - Cruise
Grade Speed
RNGURBN
FUELCSP
Acceleration - 10 Seconds
Maximum Speed
Range - Urban
ACCTENSC
MAXSPD
SUSIDLE
START
Idle Operations Fuel Consumption
Idle Operations - Sustained
Starting Time - 65% Full Power
Starting - Cold Soak
Idle Operations - Creep Torque
Starting -Reliability
COLD SOAK
CRPTRQ
. STRTREL 1
208
-------
TABLE IV
OPERATING PERFORMANCE CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 10.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. OIFF.
AAC2570 1 8 1 -2.906960 2.906972 -3.444427
CRSSPD 1 10 2 -5.063779 0.0 -3.000C'03
HISPPASS 1 9 3 -2.700673 1.687932 -2.600002
RNGC RSE 1 14 4 2.179513 -1.608060 2.24.3924
SPDGRADE 1 12 5 -1.629822 1.818521 -2.042949
ACCTENSC 1 7 6 0.0 -3.420275 2.026320
MAXSPD 1 11 7 -1.687922 1.687922 -1.99999P'
RNGURBN 1 13 8 1.783228 -1.315693 1.835936
FUELCSP 1 4 9 -1.051214 1.305833 -1.396418
SUSIDLE 1 6 10 1.172879 -0.985015 11..278465
START 1 1 11 -0.847100 1.086729 -1.1~c.;684
COLDSOAK 1 2 12 -0.875331 1.036082 -1.132~04
CRPTRC 1 5 13 -0.939469 0.804362 -1.033121
STRTREL1 1 3 14 -0.301523 0.0 -0.178635
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 20.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
AAC2570 1 8 1 -5.813944 3.750942 -5.666655
CRSSPD 1 10 2 -10.127548 -1.125292 -5.333328
RNGCRSE 1 14 3 4.909123 -2.736542 4.529625
HI SPPASS 1 9 4 -5.401349 1.687932 -4.199999
ACCTENSC 1 7 5 0.0 -6.840538 4.052632
S~.OGRADE 1 12 6 -2.932093 3.614669 -3.878587
RNGURBN 1 13 7 4.016547 -2.238993 3.706056
MAXSPO 1 11 8 -3.375846 2.813205 -3.666663
FUE:LCSP 1 4 9 -1.776608 2.712022 -2.659261
SUSIDLE 1 6 10 2.415832 -1.747482. 2.466529
START 1 1 11 -1.445447 2.345597 -2. 24598Q
COLDSOAK 1 2 12 -1.551035 2.152451 -2. 1941('J6
CRPTRQ 1 5 13 -1.914663 1.436493 -1.985371
STRTREL1 1 3 14 -0.914699 0.0 -0.541908
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 30.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
AAC2570 1 8 1 ~8.720925 3.750942 -7.38887d
RNGCRSE 1 14 2 1.911861 -3.500901 . 6. 764f)', 2
CRSSPD 1 10 3 -15.191318 -4.501138 -6.333327
ACCTENSC 1 7 '+ -0.295396 -10.260813 5.903947
HISPPASS 1 9 5 -8.102034 1.687932 -5.80(1002
RNGURBN 1 13 6 6.418249 -2.864383 5G 534-983
SPDGRADE 1 i.2 7 -3.869268 5.163310 -5.3S}293
M A XS P D 1 11 8 -5.063769 2.813205 -4.666662
FUELCSP 1 '+ 9 -2.193096 4.049457 -3.698360
SUSIOLE 1 6 10 3.537804 -2.303363 3.46(';562
START 1 1 11 -1.831068 3.663886 -3.255450
COLDSOAK 1 2 12 -2.030895 3.246504 -3.126561
C R PT R Q 1 5 13 -2.779732 1.902278 -2.773827
STRTREL1 1 3 14 -1.900758 0.0 -1.126092
209
-------
PARAMETER
CODE NAME
PARAMETER
EASEOPER
DRIVCOMF
Ease of Operation
Driver Comfort
VMINSIZE
VMAXSIZE
Ea~e of Starting
Versatility - Styling
Versatility - Minimum Size
Versatility - Maximum Size
EASESTRT
VERSSTYL
210
-------
TABLE V
ACCEPTABILITY CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
P E "C Ef\!T VARIATION IS: HJ. 00
NAMr I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. CJIFF.
f.ASEOPER 1 1 i 6.56"1370 -7. 46c17':>4 6.975143
iJRIVCll~F 1 3 2 5.120l40 -5.713965 ~.681735
EASI::STRT 1 2 3 5.19141.1) -4.656161 4.8'13327
VERSSTYL ) 4 4 4.27.:1085 -4.819981 4.51 Ht('7
VMINSIlE 1 5 5 -3.9('6994 3.543061 -3.70).9114
VMAXSIlE j, 6 6 3.647887 -3.29A865 3.451889
PE RCE NT VARIATION IS: 21.'. ('('
NAMF I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NfG. PCT. OIFF.
EASErJPER 1 1. 1 11.91t721 -15.234361 13.491559
DRIVCOMF 1 3 2 10.7]4398 -lu.7872CtJ if;. 694; 79
[~SESTQT 1 2 3 9.937490 -8~278275 9.C51538
VERSSTYL 1 4 4 7.778472 -9.779969 8.724QlC
VMINSIZE 1 5 5 -7.410605 6.372247 -6.882584
VMAXSIZE 1 6 6 7.()94137 -5.97~404 6.492358
Pt: RC ENT VARIATION IS: 30.00
NAME I J ORI)(K PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
EASEOPt:R 1 1 1 16. O'J13 73 -27..379547 19.\'71732
DRIVCOt-1F 1 3 2 14.54328':> -14.8376't6 14. 59~586
VERSSTYL 1 4 3 ]1;.471056 -14.266652 12.L92337
FASESTRT ] 2 4 13.295743 -10.8194(';1 11.982983
VMINSIlE 1 5 5 -1. Ij . () 1. 2 71 I) ij.449469 -9.173983
VMA)(SIZE i 6 6 9.732804 -7.979618 8.8C1424
211
-------
PARAMETER
CODE NAME
PARAMETER
MINTEMP
MAXTEMP
Engine Operating Temperature - Minimum
Engine Operating Temperature - Maximum
Reduced Power Vue to Adverse Weather
. RDPWRWEA
RP40WIND
RDPWRALT
DUST
RP75WIND
Reduced Power - 40 MPH Wind
Reduced Power at 11000 feet
Operability in Dust or Sand
Reduced Power - 75 MPH Wind
212
-------
TABLE VI
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PI: f.- C t:t-; T V'. K r AT I U f\J IS: lu. f..:;
"'AMI:- I J CRDi:.1' PCT. P;I$. PCT. NFG. PCT. DIFF.
,'1 PH!= MP 2 2 ! 35. on Cl176 -31.31A758 4 . <.' 2 R (. 62
."1AXT Ef-IP 2 1 7 3 2. 49 5 8 51) -29.151474 3.744549
RD PwR ,.'; ," 2 3. 3 -3(.0807<'4 31.J11126 -3.7172'-:8,
RP40wII\JD ' 2 -4 -1 L. 31.;.1)745 12.(;95641 - ,. . 42356('
...
ROPWRJLT 1 1 5 - d .26 9i~9 7 9.138345 -).{j~7378
DUST 1 ~ 6 -4.84331d 4.437011 -(;.5637(1
RP15wlNO 1 3 7 -1.6389<"+ 1.742699 -0.2f'5404
Pe:RCE~H VARIATION IS: 2(.. (II ~
NA""f. I J CRJFR PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
,.1 I NT:: M P 2 2 1 66..t78925 -55. 5V'65L~ 7.39'.£'38
.., A X T t M P c:: 1. .: b~.919495 -52.3~8154 1.('P2132
ROPw~~t:A 2 3 j - ~ 5. 43 i61d 59.248978 -6.965869
p P4C W Ii'.JL) 1 2 4 -2~~.862137 23.586273 -2.699663
ROPWRALT 1 1 5 -l 5.111446 18.253387 -2.<'26629
OUST 1 4 6 -9.1H4?14 8.018209 -1.0449(1n
RP75WIND 1. 3 7 - 2. 41 58 9() 3.573874 -n.363827
PERCENT VtRIATION IS: 3fJ . or;
NAM[ I J O~D(:R PCT. PCJS. PCT. NEG. PCT. OIFF.
"1 I NT [ ,.\ P 2 2 1 b6.447739 -72.547394 9.657598
KOPWRWt:A 2 3 2 -74.090393 81.30R762 -9.439170
MAXTE/'w1P 2 1 :3 85.429367 -69.404892 9.404f:\56
R P 40 ri IN!) 1 ? 4 -2 8 .fJ7~J938 33.154282 -3.71891]
RDPWPt'.l T 1 1 5 -20.340359 26.191589 -2.826784
OUST 1 4 6 -12.128532 10.094563 -1.386308
RP75wIND 1 3 7 -2.4J. 5890 5.473836 -0.479234
213
-------
. PARAMETER
CODE NAME
PARAMETER
SFSERV
SFPROD
Safety - Service
Safety - Production
Safety-Energy Supply Low Speed Accident
Safety-Energy Supply Normal Operation
Safety-Energy Supply High Speed Accident
Propulsion System Safety
SFLSACC
SFNORMOP
SFHSACC
SFPROPSY
214
-------
TABLE VII
SAFETY CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PERCENT VARI A TlJN IS: 10.)0
NAME I J ORL>ER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
SFSERV 2 2 1 38.296860 -34.C60852 2 . 22 9 (\ 5 7
SFPROO 2 1 2 38.296860 -34.060852 2.229(57
SFlSACC 2 6 3 30.392899 -28.630737 1.8182d7
SFNORMOP 2 4 4 30.392853 -28.630768 1.818286
SFHSACC 2 S 5 30.392853 -28.630737 1.818285
SFPROPSY 2 3 6 -99.999969 -9q.999969 0.0
DUMY TE RM 1 1 "7 0.0 0.0 0.0
PERCENT VARIATIGN IS: 20.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. pas. PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
SFSERV 2 2 1 11.C82672 -59.533081 4.023760
SFPROD 2 1 2 11.082672 -59.533081 4.023760
SFlSACC 2 6 3 58.031933 -52.541245 3.406510
SFHSACC 2 5 4 58.037933 -52.541245 3. 4 1)6 5 1 0
SFNORMOP 2 4 . 5 58.037811 -52.541214 3.406507
SFPROPSY 2 3 6 -99.999969 -99.999969 (1.0
DUMY TERM 1 1 7 0.0 C'. (\ 0.0
P E RC E NT VARI A TI ON IS: 30.00
NAME [ J ORDER PCT. pas. PCT. NEG. PCT. OIFF.
SF SER V 2 2 1 90.288345 -76.655029 5.142871
SFPROO 2 1. 2 90.286345 -16.655029 5. 142871
SFlSACC 2 6 3 18.905075 -70.119666 4.61)9351
SFHSACC 2 5 4 78.905014 -70.119666 4.609349
SFNORMOP 2 4 5 78.905014 -70.719666 4.609349
SFPROPSY 2 3 6 -99.999969 -99.999969 0.0
DUMYTERM 1 1 7 0.0 o.r: 0.0
215
-------
That is, if the system is safe, the value to the user is 1; if. it is
not safe the value to the user is 0 and consequently the entire
category value is O.
Theref~re, the category value i6 most sensitive
to any change in value of this parameter.
Table VII shows the safety in service and safety in production to
be the most critical parameters.
It is MITRE's conclusion that the
model should be more sensitive to the safety of the energy storage
parameters than safety in service and safety in production.
It is
therefore recommended that the slopes for safety in production
(Curve 5.5) and safety in service (Curve 5.6) curves originally agreed
to by DAAPSD and MITRE is reduced to a value below the slope of the
other curves.
It is also recommended that all six safety parameters
be retained in the model.
5.2.6
Personnel and Facilities
In this category the sensitivity analysis shows a very logical
ranking of the parameters.
The most critical parameter is time to
consumer availability which shows a variation in the base value of
0.194 over the span of ~lO% from the 0.5 value (Table VIII).
This, of
course, is due to the intentionally high weighting, 0.20, given to
this parameter.
All the other parameters have weightings of 0.10 or
less and are thus closely grouped in variation from 0.033 to 0.128 over
the 10% span.
The parameter complexity of production changeover is
ranked last, more on the basis of the function itself rather than the
weighting assigned.
This is acceptable since this parameter was not
intended to be a key one in this category.
216
-------
5.2.7
Propulsion System Technical Performance
Th~ sensitivity and ranking of the propulsion system technical
performance parameters, based on a :tlO% variation about the mid-value
point, is presented in Table IX.
The relative ranking of the parameter
is generally what one would intuitively expect.
The category value set is most senHitive to overall propulsion
system weight and volume, with weight having the more important role.
Fuel cost is next in the ranking.
Although costs in general are con-
sidered elsewhere, specific fuel cost is considered to be an important
measure of a propulsion system's value from the standpoint of the con-
sumption of natural resources.
The power conditioner efficiency at
maximum continuous horsepower is next in importance, ranking ahead of
energy converter and overall system efficiencies because it plays an
important role in determining not only operating cost, but also the
weight, volume, and the initial cost of the energy converter and the
energy storage system.
The overall propulsion system efficiencies (19th and 23rd in the
ranking) appear to be lower in importance than one would expect.
How-
ever, since there are two overall efficiency parameters (one for
each mode), the effective sensitivity for overall system efficiency
will be the sum of the two individual sensitivites.
Therefore, the
effective ranking for overall system efficiency becomes 9th in order
of importance.
Finally, the sensitivity of individual component specific weight
and volume are clustered together at the bottom six positions in the
217
-------
PARAMETER
CODE NAME
PARAMETER
TlMEAVL
SERVFAC
Time to Consumer Availability
Lead Time - Field Service Changeover
J::DLVLSRP
CPLXSERV
Education Level - Service
Complexity of Field Service Changeover
SERVPERS
PRODFAC
. Lead Time for Service Training
Lead Time - Production Changeover
PRODPERS
EDLVLPRD
Lead Time for Production Training
Education Level - Production
AVLENGST
CPLXPROD
Availability of Energy Stations
Complexity of Production Changeover
218
-------
TABLE V r. II
PERSONNEL AND FACILITIES CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PERCENT VARIATldN IS: 10.00
NAME I J URUER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. OIFF.
TIMEAVL 1 1 1 -17.208344 15.1213437 -15.472227
SERVFAC 1 4 2 -3.676622 3.2791:!59 -3.328478
EOlVLSRP 1 10 3 -3.513943 3.029752 -3.130972
CPLXSERV 1 5 4 2.945989 -2.847939 2.772229
5ERVPERS 1 9 5 -2.717609 2.934466 -2.704358
PRODFAC 1 2 6 -2.860669 2.691848 -2.656722
PRGO'PE RS 1 7 1 -2.133206 2.131624' -2.614766
EOlVlPRD 1 8 8 -2.715142 2.349497 -2.423573
AVLENGST 1 6 <:J 1.669640 -1.112156 1.618093
CPlXPROO 1 3 10 1.337590 -1.33759(, 1.279998
P ERC ENT VARIATION IS: 20.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFf.
TIMEAVL 1 1 " -20.914841 19.569962 -19.310819
SERVFAC 1 4 2 -6.9U7936 5 . 0 1 2 591 -6.0864J9
EDlVLSRP 1 10 3 -6.712201 5.213013 -5. 1345ii7
CPlXSERV 1 5 4 5.616586 -5.313612 5.229189
SERVPERS 1 9 5 -5.013230 5.805465 -5.116436
PRODFAC 1 2 6 -5.546988 4.986445 -5.039948
PRODPERS 1 7 7 -5.179049 5.202183 -4.967123
EDlVLPRD 1 8 8 -4.898374 4.003203 -4.259151
AVlENGST 1 6 9 3.059915 -3.220685 3 . I) () 5 116
C PlX PROD 1 3 10 2.675181 -2.615193 2.560001
PERCENT VARIATIiJN IS: 30.00
NAME 1 J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
TIMEAVl 1 1 1 -21.000549 19.569962 -19.411835
SERVFAC 1 4 2 -8.882531 7.618824 -1.895428
EDlVlSRP 1 10 3 -8.711500 6.784958 -7.443320
SERVPEKS 1 9 4 -6.795135 8.312596 -7.22'3619
CPLXSERV 1 5 5 7.698914 -7.259194 7.151027
PRODFAC 1 2 6 -7.723005 6. 79 .3 50 3 -b.945135
PRODPERS 1 7 7 -1.119823 1.24410e -6.872731
EDlVLPRD 1 8 8 -5.917930 5.0461.41 -5.245996
AVlENGST 1 6 9 4.(j48337 -4.355285 4.020893
C PlX PROD 1 :3 10 4.012771 -2.925983 3.319996
219
-------
RANKING.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
TABLE IX
PROPULSION SYSTEH TECHNICAL PARAMETER SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PARAMETER
NUMBER
31
30
3
26
18
5
6
19
12
NAME
O.P.S.-Total Weight
O.P.S.-Total Volume
E.S.-Specific Cost (Consumable)
P.C.-Efficiency at max. Cont. HP
E.C.-Overload Capability
E.S.-Known Fuel Reserves
E.S.-Ease of Refueling
E.C.-Sensitivity to Fuel Quality
E.C.-Stall/Design pt. Torque
27
P.C.-Effectiveness in Reverse Power
Direction
O.P.S.-Use of Scarce Materials
32
14
25
22
16
10
23
13
28
E.C.-Regenerative Power Efficiency
P.C.-Reverse Power Effectiveness
P.C.-Specific Cost
E.C.-Efficiency at Max. Cont. HP
E.C.-Power Range-Minimum HP
P.C.-Power Range-Minimum HP
E.C.-Minimum/Design Point/RPM
O.P.S.-Provision Efficiency of
Mode 1
E.C.-Power Range-Maximum HP
Wheel.
11
24
15
29
P.C.-Power Range-Maximum HP
E.C.-Absorption Power Effectiveness
O.P.S.-Propulsion Efficiency at
Wheel. Node 2
E.C.-Specific Cost
9
17
4
E.C.-Response to Load Change
E.S.-Specific Cost (non-consumable)
P.C.-Specific Weight
21
220
PERCENT
CHANGE
-.0870
-.0545
-.0504
+.0460
+.0358
+.0331
+.0325
-.0325
+.0315
+.0310
+.0290
+.0260
+.0258
-.0212
+.0204
-.0198
-.0189
-.0178
+.0177
+.0171
+.0170
+.0165
+.0144
-.0114
-.00975
-.00825
-.00509
-------
TABLE IX (CONT'D)
PARAMETER PERCENT
RANKING NUMBER NANE CHANGE
28 8 E. C. -Specific Weight -.00275
29 7 E.C.-Specific Volume -.00184
30 1 E. S. -Specific Volume -.000994
31 2 E. S. -Speci fic Weight -.000144
32 20 P. C . - Specific Volume -.0000048
E.S. = Energy Storage
E.C. = Energy Converter
P.C. Power Conditioner
O.P.S. = Overall Propulsion System
221
-------
ranking. and might legitimately be dropped from consideration.
However. this is not recommended since these parameters offer an
insight, into overall system weight and volume which are. as stated
'earlier. the most important of all parameters in this category.
5.2.8
Reliability and Maintenance
The sensitivity and ranking of the reliability and maintenance
parameters are presented in Table X.
The relative ranking conforms to
the weighting factors applied to each term in the value set.
The
category value set is relatively insensitive to changes in the last
three parameters: expense of unscheduled repairs. ease of routine
service and period between routine services. However. it is recommended
that these three parameters be retained in the value set as they pro-
vide a measure of reliability and maintenance which is important to
the ultimate consumer.
222
, .
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TABLE X
RELIABILITY AND ~~INTENANCE CATEGORY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
PERCENT VARIATION IS:
NAME ..-" I
DESIGN LIFE 1
MILES BETWEEN FAILURES 1
SYSTEM COMPLEXITY 1
EXPENSE OF UNSCHEDULE REPAIR 1
EASE OF ROUTINE SERVICE 1
PERIOD BETWEEN ROUTINE SERVICES 1
J
4
6
1
3
2
5
ORDER
1
2
3
4
5
6
10.00
PCT. POSe
11.919104
8.311348
-4.696195
-3.499930
3.029963
2.549343
PCT. NEG.
-10.839664
-1.814911
5.613153
3.664239
. -3.205325
-3.036468
PCT. DIFF.
11.118886
8.331491
-5.339217
-3.688860
3.210514
2.876156
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 20.00
N
N NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
\..oJ
DESIGN LIFE 1 4 1 21.536423 -18.848450 20.794321
MILES BETWEEN FAILURES 1 6 2 15.509501 -14.24!\680 15.321057
SYSTEM COMPLEXITY 1 1 3 -8.203454 11.664642 -10. 23016{\
EXPENSE OF UNSCHEDULE REPAIR 1 3 4 -6.380380 6.811167 -6.192688
EASE OF ROUTINE SERVICE 1 2 5 5.413100 -6.115570 5.961360
PERIOD BETWEEN ROUTINE SERVICES 1 5 6 4.557423 -6.380115 5.631781
PERCENT VARIATION IS:
NAME I
DESIGN LIFE 1
l-IILES BETWEEN FAILURE 1
SYSTEM CO~~LEXITY 1
EXPENSE OF UNSCHEDULED REPAIR 1
PERIOD BETWEEN ROUTINE SERVICE 1
EASE OF ROUTINE SERVICE 1
J
4
6
1
3
5
2
ORDER
1
2
3
4
5
6
30.00
PCT. POSe
26.105195
20.421082
-10.623020
-8.469700
6.060451
1.158338
PCT. NEG.
-24.002141
-18.181521
14.525805
1.781901
-9.662512
-8.380149
PCT. DIFF.
26.110031
20.188660
-12.949228
-8.368015
8.095819
8,000821
-------
REFERENCES
1.
The Automobile and Air Pollution:
of Commerce. October 1967.
Parts I & II.
U. S. Department
2.
Study of Unconventional Thermal~ Mechanical and Nuclear Low -
Pollution - Potential Power Scources for Urban Vehicles:,
Battelle Memorial Institute. ~irch 15, 1968.
3.
A Technology Assessment Methodology: A Pilot Study on Automotive
Emission Control, MITRE WP-7482, W. E. Jacobsen, March 15,
1971 (Controlled Distribution).
4.
A Survey of Propulsion Systems for Low Emission Urban Vehicles,
MITRE, M70-45, W. E. Fraize, R. K. Lag. September 1970.
5.
Nation's Cost/Benefit Ratio Weighs Heavily on Auto Emissions,
SAE Journal, March 1970.
6.
The Economics of Po1lution~ Graduate School of Business,
University of Chicago, Charles Upton.
7.
Costs and Economic Impacts of Air Pollution Control Fiscal Years
1970-1974, Ernst & Ernst.
8.
The Economic Impact of Conversion to a Nonpolluting Automobile:
International Research and Technology Corp., Edward Ayers.
December 30, 1969.
9.
California Air Resources Board Adopts Tight Emission Standards
for 1975 Cars Sold in California. SAE Journal, March 1970.
10.
New York City is Testing Low-Pollution Vehicles for Long-Term
Urban Service, Automotive Engineering, March 1971.
11.
Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles and New.Motor
Vehicle Engines. Federal Register Volume 35, Number 219,
November 10, 1970.
12.
Surface Transportation Noise. J. H. Venema, Transportation Noise
A Symposium on Acceptable Criteria, University of Washington
Press., Seattle Washington, March 1969.
13.
Community Noise Levels, G. T. Thiessen, Transportation Noise, A
Symposium on Acceptability Criteria, University of Washington
Press, Seattle Washington, March 1969.
224
-------
14.
Physical Cllmatology. Helmut Landsberg. The Pennsylvania State
College, ]954.
15.
Glossary of Meteorolo~y. Ralph Huschke. American Meteorological
Sodety. 1959.
16.
Federal Register, Vol. 36. No. 125:
June 29, 1971. page 12214.
17.
U.S. Industrial Outlook 1971 With ~rojections Throu~h 1980.
U. S. Department of Commerce.
18.
1971 Automobile Facts and Figures.
Association.
Automobile Manufacturers
19.
The American Almanac. 91st Edition. U. S. Department of Commerce.
Bureau of the Census. September 1970.
20.
Survey of Current Business, U. S. Department of Commerce. Office
of Business Economics. Vol. 51. No.7. August 1971.
21.
Manufacturing Cost Study of Selected Gas Turbine Automobile
Engine Concepts. E.5. Wright, L.E. Greenwald. W. R. Davison.
United Aircraft Research Laboratories. August 1971.
22.
1967 Census of Manufacturers. U. S. Department of Commerce.
Bureau of the Census. U. S. GPO. 1971.
23.
The American Car...On Trial! Union Oil Company 1971.
24.
The Economy at Midyear 1971 with Industry Projections for 1972.
U. S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Domestic Commerce.
August. 1971.
25.
Automobile Repair Industry, Hearings before the Subcommittee on
Anti Trust and Monopoly of the Committee on the Judiciary.
United States Senate. Ninetieth and Ninety-First Congress.
Parts 1. 2. 3. 4; December 3. 4. and 5. 1968. Apr. 22. 23.
24. 29. and 30. 1969. October 6. 8. 9. 14 and 16. 1969.
March 17. 18, and 19. 1970. .
225
-------
A.
B.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Internal Combustion Engine
1.
Not a Question of Size - W. S. Craig, Environment Vol. 12,
No.5, June 1970.
2.
The Relation Between Knock and Exhaust Emissions of a Spark
Ignition Engine. L. C. Duke, S. S. Lestz and We. E.
Myer, SAE Paper 700062, January 1970.
3.
Synchrothermal Reactor System for Control of Automotive
Exhaust Emission. W. Glass, D. S. Kim, B. J. Draus.
SAE Paper 700147, January 1970.
4.
The 1970 General Motors Emission Control Systems. J. B. King,
H. R. Schneider, R. S. tooker, SAE Paper 700149.
5.
Natural Gas Fueled Vehicles Exhaust Emissions and Operational
Characteristics. R. W. McJones, R. J. Corbeil.
6.
R. A. Wilson-Jones.
Automobile Engineer, May 8, 1970.
Engines.
7.
Reduction of Emissions from the Curtiss-Wright Rotating
Combustion Engine with Exhaust Reactor. D. E. Cole,
Charles Jones, SAE Paper 700074, January 1970.
8.
Eliminating Exhaust CO and NO - It's Possible.
July 1970.
SAE Journal,
9.
Many Possibilities Exist for Eliminating Major Pollutants
From Exhaust Gas. SAE Journal, March 1969.
10.
Man Modified M. Combustion System Burns any Grade of Gasoline
Efficiently and Without Knock. SAE Journal, June 1969.
Diesel
1.
Evaluation of Vehicle Exhaust Gas Odor Intensity using
Natural Dilution. J. M. Colucci, G. J. Barnes. SAE Paper
700105. January 1970.
2.
Four Years of Diesel Odor and Smoke Control Technology
Evaluations, A Summary. K. J. Springer, C. T. Hare, ASME
Publications 69WA/APC-3. August 1969.
226
-------
. .
C.
D.
E.
3.
Smoke and Odor Control for Diesel-Powered Trucks and Busses.
R. C. Stahman, G. D. Kittridge, K. J. Springer. SAE
Paper 680443. May 1968.
4.
Air Pollutant Inventory -- Enter the Diesel. R. W. Hurn,
D. E. Seizinger. American Petroleum Institute, May 1965.
5.
An Investigation of Diesel Powered Vehicle Odor and Smoke.
Parts II & III. Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio,
Texas. February 1968.
Bryton Cycle
1.
Gas Turbine Engines for Bus Service.
McGean, September 1970.
T. J.
MITRE MTP-346.
Rankine Cycle
1.
Performance of a 35 HP Organic Rankine Cycle Exhaust Gas
Powered System. E. Lodwig. SAE Paper 700160, January 1970.
2.
Some Developments in Small Reciprocating Rankine-Cycle Engines
Using Organic Working Fluids. E. F. Doyle, T. LeFeuvre, R. J.
Raymond. SAE Paper 700162, January 1970.
3.
Performance Tests of a Small, High Speed Steam Engine. C. V.
Burkland, C. R. Halback, SAE Paper 700159, January 1970.
4.
Control of Mobile Steam Power Plants.
Paper 700118, January 1970.
A. P. Fraas.
SAE
5.
Developments in Automotive Steam Power Plants.
SAE Paper 690043, January 1969.
S. S. Miner.
Electric Propulsion Systems
1.
Prospects for Electric Vehicles. A Study of Low-Pollution-
Potential Vehicles-Electric. J. H. B. George, H. J. Straton,
R. A. Acton, Authur D. Little, May 15, 1968.
2.
Power Systems for Electric Vehicles. U. S. Department of
Health, Education and Welfare. April 1967.
3.
Power Without Pollution. P. J. Musgrave, A. D. Wilson, New
Scientist. March 5, 1970.
4.
Future Electric Car.
January 1969.
G. A. Hoffman.
SAE Paper 690073,
227
-------
F.
5.
Special Purpose Urban Cars.
S. L. Genslak, A. G. Lucas.
J. J. Gumbleton~ D. J. Frank,
SAE Paper 690461, May 1969.
6.
Liquid Fuel/Air Fuel-Cell Power Systems. K. R. Williams,
M. R. Andrew, W. J. Gressler, J. K. Johnson. SAE Paper
700022, January 1970.
7.
Questions to Ask about Batteries Proposed for Electric Cars.
F. E. Ammerman. SAE Paper 700021, January 1970.
8.
Electric Vehicles: Economics and &~erience.
SAE Paper 690115, January 1969.
H. J. Young.
9.
Effects of Electric Vehicles on the Power Industry. E. Hines,
M. S. Mashikian, L. J. Van Tuyl. SAE Paper 690441, May 1969.
10.
Prospects of Electrical Power for Vehicles.
SAE Paper 680541, August 1968.
E. S. Starkman.
11.
Design of an Electric Automobile Employing Nickel-Cadium
Batteries. V. Wouk, H. N. Seiger. SAE Paper 690454, ~~y 1969.
12.
The Challenge to the Gasoline Engine. K. R. Williams,
Petroleum Review, Vol. 22 No. 264. December 1968.
13.
The Electric Utility Industry: Future Fuel Requirements
1970-1990. G. C. Gambs, Mechanical Engineering. April 1970.
14.
Electricity Not Such a Clean Fuel.
Engineering, February 1971.
P. D. Agarmal, Automotive
Hybrid Propulsion Systems
1.
The Wind VP Car. K. Hohenemser & J. McCaull.
Vol. 12, No.5, June 1970.
Environment
228
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,APPENDIX I
AIR .pOT,LUTT~~_Q:'fr?OL OFFICE
ADVA~CE!1 AUTO!'iOTIVE Pm-fER SYSTE~S PROGRAM
"Vehicle Dcsign Goals - Six Passenger Automobile"
(Rcvision B - Fe~ruary 11, 1971 - 11 Pagcs)
The design goals presented below are intended to prov:~de:
A co~~on objective for prospective contractors.
Criteria for evaluating proposals and selecting
a contractor.
Criteria for evaluating competitive pm.,er syste1:1s
for entering first generation system hardware.
The derived criteria are based on typical characteris;ics of the class of
passenGcr automobiles with the largest market volume )roduced in the U.S.
durinG the model years 1969 and 1970. It is noted that ecissions,
volur.:e and mo~.;(: ...,eight characteristic,s presente~ are maximum valu~s
while the pceiun:ance characteristics are intenc!eo as minimum valucs.
Cont¥actors and prospective contractors who take exce~tions must justify
these exceptions and relate these exceptions to the t~chnic~l goals
presented herein.
1.
Vehicle weight without propulsion system - Woo
W is the ,.,eight of the vehicle ,.,ithout the propulsion system
agd includes, but is not limited to: body, fra~e, glass and
trim, suspension, service brakes, seats, upholstery, sound
absorbing materials, insulation, wheels (rims and tires),
acce~sory ducting, dashboard instruments and accessory wiring,
passenger compartrecnt,heating and cooling devices and all other
components not included in the propulsion system. It also
includes the air conditioner compressor, the power steering pu~p,
and the power brakes actuating device.
Wo is fixed at 2700 Ibs.
2.
Propulsion system weight - Wp
Up inclt:dQs th.:! ~nergy storage unit (including fu~l and containr.:e~c).
pO\..7er converter (inclucbg boti1 functional com;>onents and cor.trols)
and po~..er tr::msmi t ting C01~?Oncnts to the drivcn wheels. It a150
includes the exhaust system, pumps, motors, fans and fluids nec~ssary
for o?cration of the propulsion system, and £ny propulsion systcm
heating or cooling devices.
229
-------
-2-
Rev. B - Feb. II» 1971
The r.':1:d.r.1l::n allo\/.:1blc propulsion system \.}ci~ht» TNnm» is 1600 Ibs.
Howc~--.;-r--:-T"i;.;ht \vci::;ht propulsion systC::1S arc highly desired.
(Equiv~l~nt 1976 propulsion system weight with a spark ignition
cngin~ is 1300 1bs.)
3.
Vehicle curb \.Jeigi1t - He
Wc = Wo + Wp
The maxi~u:n allC\.Jabl~ vehicle curb weight, Wcm' i:; 4300 1bs.
(2700 + 1600 wax. =.~300)
4.
Vehicle test weight - Wt
\.Jt = \~c + 300 ~bs. \~t is the vehiCle 'weight at which all
accelerative caneuve(s» fuel economy and emission~ are to be
calculated. (Items oc, 8d, Se)
The r.:a:d:.:um allo\labl~ tes t weight, Wtm'. is 4600 lhs.
1600 max. + 300 = 4600)
(2700 +
5.
Gross vchi.::'c \.Jcight - Wg
w = W + 1000 l~s. Wo is the gross vehicle wei~lt at which
g c. 0
sustai~ed cruise grade velocity ca~ability is to be calculated.
(ItCD 8f) Toe 1000 Ibs load simulat2s a full load of passengers
and baggage.
The caxi:.:u~ allowable gross vehicle weight» Wgm» is 5300 Ibs.
(2700 + 1600 max. + 1000 = 5300) .
6.
Propu1s~0~ system vo1u~e - Vp
Vp incluces all ite~s identified under item 2. VD shall be
packagable in such a way that the volur.:e encroachbent on either
the passenger or luggage co~?art::1ent is not significantly different
tha~ today's (1970) st&ndard £~11 size far.:ily car. ~ecessary
external Cl??earancc (styli~g) chac~es will ~e minor in nature.
Vp shall also be packagablc in such a way that thc handling
charac~eristics 0: the vehicle do not depart significantly fro~ a
1970 full size £a~ily car.
The r.:::x i::-.u::-. .::llo\.Jable volu;;!c assignable to the propulsion syste::1»
V -. 35': p 3
pm' ~s ~...
230
-------
-3-
Rev. B - Feb. II, 1971
7.
Emission Goals
The vehicle when tested for emissions in accordance with the
procedure outlined in the November 10, 1970 Federal Register
sball have a weight of Wt. The emission goals for the vehicle
are:
Hydrocarbons.
Carbon monoxide
Oxides of nitr)gen**
Particulates
0.14 grams/inile
4.7 grams/mile
- 0.4 grams/mile
- 0.03 grams/mile
maximum
maximum
maximum
maxi mum
"'Total hydrocarbons (using 1972 measurement pI"ocedures)
plus total oxygenates. Total oxygenates including
a1edhydes will not be more than 10 percent by weight
of the hydrocarbons or 0.014 grams/mile, whichever is
greater.
"'.measured or computed as N020
8.
Start up, Acceleration, and Grade Velocity Performance.
8.
Start up:
The vehicle must be capable of being tested in accordance with
the procedure outlined in the November 10, 1970 Federal Register
without special startup/warmup procedures.
The maximum time from key on to reach 6S percent full power
" is 45 sec. Ambient conditions are 14.7 psis pressure, 60° F
temperature. "
Powerp1ant starting techniques in low ambient temperatures shall
be equivalent to or better than the typical automobile spark-
ignition engine. Conventional spark-ignition engines are deemed
satiofactory if after a 24 hour soak at -200 F the engine achieves
a 8elf-suBt~ining idle condition without further driver input within 25
seconds. No 8tar~lng aids external to the normal vehicle system
shall be needed for -200 F starts or higher temperatures~
231
" .
. .
. .
-------
-4-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
b.
Idle operation conditions:
The fuel consumption rate at idle operating conditjon will not
exceed 14 percent of the fuel consumption rate at the .rns.:d.mum design
power condition. Recharging of energy storage systems i9 '
exempted from this requirement. Air conditioni~g is off,the
power steering p'.Imp and power brake actuating d(~vice, if
directly engine driven, are being driven but art~ unloaded.
The torque at tr1nsmission output
creep torque) sh3l1 not exceed 40
rear axle ratio~ and tire sizes.
result in level road operation in
18 mph.
during idle oreration (idle
foot-pounds, i,ssurning conventional
This idle cre(p torque should
high gear whiLh docs not exceed
c.
Acceleration from a standing start:
The minimum distance to be covered in 10.0 sec. is 440 ft.
The maximum time to reach a velocity of 60 mph js 13.5 sec.
Ambient conditio',.s are 14.7 psia, 85° F. Vehicle weight is Wt.
Acceler<:ltion is on a level grade and' initiated with the engine
at the normal idle condition.
d.
Acceleration in merging traffic:
The maximum time to accelerate from a constant velocity
of 25 mph to a velocity of 70 mph is 15.0 sec. Time starts
when th€ throttle is depressed. Ambient conditions are 14.7
psia, 85° F. Vehicle weight is Wt, and acceleration is on
level grade.
e.
Acceleration, DOT High Speed Pass Maneuver:
The maximum time and maximum distance to go from an initial
velocity of 50 mph with the front of the automobile (18 foot
length assumed) 100 feet behind the back of a 55 foot truck
traveling at a constant 50 mph to a position where the back
of the auto~obi1e is 100 feet in front of the front of the 55
foot truck is, 15 sec. and 1400 ft. The entire maneuver t::tkes
place in a traffic lane adjacent to the lane in which the truck
is operated. Vehicle will be accelerated until the maneuver is
completed or until a maximum speed of 80 mph is attained, which-
ever occurs first. Vehicle acceleration ceases when a speed of
80 mph is attained, the maneuver then being completed at a
constant 80 mph. (This does not imply a design requirement
limiting the maximum vehicle speed to 80 mph.) Time starts when
the throttle is depressed. Am~ient conditions are 14.7 psia.
65° F. Vehicle weight is Wt, and acceleration is on level grade.
232
-------
-5-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
f.
Grade velocity:
The vehicle must be capable of starting from rest on a 30
percent grade and accelerating to 15 mph and sustaining it.
This is the stec~est grade on which the vehicle is required
to operate in either the forward or reverse din!ction.
The minimum crui5e velocity that can be continu(lusly maintained
on a 5 percent grade with an accessory load of l! hp shall be
not less than 60 mph.
The vehicle must be capable of achieving a velocity of 65 mph
up a 5 percent grade and maintaining this ve10dty for a
period of 180 se.:onds when preceded and fo110we.l by continuous
operation at 60 inph on the same grade (as above:'.
The vehicle must be capable of achi~ving a velocity of 70 mph
up a 5 rerr.ent grade and maintaining this velocity for a
period of 100 seconds when preceded and follo,.,ed by continuous
operation at 60 ~ph on the same grade (as above).
The minimum cruise velocity that can be continuously maintained
on ~ level road (zero grade) with an accessory load of 4 hp
shall be not less than 8S mph with a vehicle weight of Wt.
Ambient conditions for all grade specifications are 14.7 psia
85° F. Vehicle weight is Wg for all grade specifications
except the zero grade specification.
The vehicle must be capable of providing performance (Paragraphs
8c, 8d, 8e 8f)with1n5percent of the stated 850 F values, when
operated at ambient temperatures from -200 F to 1050 F.
233
. .'
-------
-6-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
9.
Minimum vehicle range:
Minimum vehicle range without 6upplementinz.theencrr;y 8torD.(;e
wIll be 200 miles. The minimum r.:1nge sh.:1l1 be C.:11cl\lated for,
and applied to each of the two following modes: 1) A city-
. suburban mode, and ~) a cruise mode.
Mode 1:
Is d.e driving cycle which appears in the
Nove~ber 10. 1970 Federal Register. For
vehicles whose performance docs not 'Iepend
on the state of energy storage, the range
may be calculated for one cycle and catioed
to 200 miles. For vehicles who~e pe~formance
does depend on the state of ener~y storage
the l~deral driving cycle must be repeated
until 200 miles have been completed.
Mode 2:
Is a constant 70 mph cruise on a lev~l road for
200 miles.
The vehicle weight fQr both modes shall be, initially, Wt' The
ambient conditions shall be a pressure of 14.7 psia, and temperatures
of 60° F, 850 F and 1050 F. The vehicle minimum range shall not.
decrease by more than 5 percent at an ambient temperature of -200 F.
For hybrid vehicles, the energy level in the power augmenting device
at the completion of o?eration will be equivalent t9 the energy level
at the beginning of operation.
234
-------
-7-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
10.
System thermal efficiency:
System thermal efficiency will be calculated by two methods:
A.
A "fuel eco;\omy" figure based on 1) miles ~er gallon
(fuel type ;Jeing specified) and 2) the numl:er of Btu
per mile re'1uired to drive the vehicle ove1. the 1972
Federal driving cycle which appears in the November
10, 1970 Federal Register. Fuel economy iE based on
the fuel or other forms of energy delivere(, at the
vehicle. V~hicle weight is Wc'
A "fuel economy" fisure based on 1) miles per gallon
(fuel type being specified) and 2) the number of Btu
per mile required to drive the vehicle at r.onstant
~peed, in Etill air, on level road, at spe~ds of 20,
. 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 mph. Fuel ecoMmy is based
on the fuel or other forms of energy deliv(~red at the
vehicle. Vehicle weight is Wt. .
B.
. .
In both cases, the system thermal efficiency shall be calculated
with sufficient electrical. power steering and power brake loads
10 service to perwit safe operation of the automohi1e. Calculations
shall be made witt and without air conditioning o?erating. The
ambient conditions are 14.7 psia and temperatures of 60° F, 850 F
and 1050 F. Calculations shall be made with heater operating at
ambiept conditions of 14.7 psia and 30° F (18.000 Btu/hr).
11.
Air Drag Calculation:
The product of the drag coefficient, Cd, and the frontal area, Af,
1s to be used in air drag calculations. The product CdAf has a
value of 12 ft2. The air density used in computations shall
correspond to the applicable ambient air temperature.
12.
Rolling Resis~ance:
Rolling resi~tance, R, is expressed in the equation
R . W/65 [1 + (1.4 x lO-3V) + (1.2 lO-5V2)] lbe. V is the veh1cle
velocity in ft/sec. W is the vehicle weight in lbs.
235
, .
.,
-------
.-
-8-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
13.
Accessory power requirements:
The accessories are defined as subsystems for driver assistance
and passenger convenience, not essential to sustaining the
engine operation ard include: the air co~ditioning compressor,
the power steering pump, the alternator (except whl~re required
to sustain operation), and the power brakes actuating device.
The accessories alEo include a device for heating:hc passenger
compartment if the heating demand is not supplied lIy W'aste heat.
Auxiliaries are defined as those subsystems necesshry for the
sustained operation of the engine, and include conl!ensor fan(s),
combustor fanes), fuel pumps, lube pumps, cooling fluid pumps,
working fluid pumpE and the alternator when necesslry for driving
electric motor driven fans or pumps.
The maximum intermittent accessory load, Paim' is 10 hp (plus the
heating load, if applicable). The maximum continuous accessory
load, Pacm' is 7.5 hp (plus the heating load if applicable). The
average accessory load, Paa, is 4 hp.
If accessories are driven at variable
apply. If the accessories are driven
Pacm will be reduced by 3 hp.
speeds, the above values
at constant speed, Paim and
236
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-9-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
14.
Passenger comfort requirements:
Heating and air conditioning of the passenger compartment shall be
at a rate equivalent to that provided in the present (1970) standard
full size family car.
Present practice fvr maximum passenger compartment heating rate is
approximately 30,000 Btu/hr. For an air conditioning system at 1100 F
ambient, 800 F and 40% relative humidity air to thB evaporator, the
Irate is approximately 13,000 Btu/hr.
I .
15.
.Propulsion system operating temperature range:
The propulsion system shall be operable within an ,~xpected ambient
temperature ~ange of -400 to 1250 F.
16.
Operational life:
The mean operational life of the propulsion system should be
approximately equal to that of the present spark-ignition cngine.
The mean operational life should be based on a mean vehicle life of
105,000 miles or ten years, whichever comes firs't.
The design lifetime of the propulsion system in normal operation will
be 3500 hours. Normal maintenance may include replacement of
accessable minor parts of the propulsion system via a usual maintenance
.procedure, but the major parts of the system shall be designed for a
3500 hour minimum operation life.
The operational life of an engine shall be determined by structural or
functional failure causing repair and replacement costs exceeding the
cost of a new or rebuilt engine. (Functional failure is defined as
power degradation exceeding 25 percent or top vehicle speed degradation
exceeding 9 percent).
237
. .
-------
\
.-10-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
17.
(Air conditioner not operating)
Noise standards:
a.
Maximum noise test:
The maximum no~se generated by the vehicle sh~ll not
exceed 77 dbA when measured in accordance with SAE J986a.
Note that the noise level is 77 dbA whereas in the SAE
J986a the leve: is 86 dbA.
b.
Low speed noise test:
The maximum noise generated by the vehicle shall not exceed
63 dbA when measured in accordance with SAE J986a except
that a constan~ vehicle velocity of 30 mph is used on the
pass-by, the v~hicle being in high gcar or the highest gear
in which it can be operated at that speed.
c.
Idle noise test:
The maximum noise generated by the vehicle shall not exceed
62 dbA whcn ~e.~sured in accordance with SAE J986a exccpt that
the engine is idling (clutch disengaged or in neutral gear)
and the vehicle passes by at a speed of less than 10 mph.
the ~icrophone will be placed at 10 feet from the centerline
of the vehicle pass line.
18.
Safety standards:
The vehicle shall comply with all current Department of Transportation
Federal Motor Vehicle Safcty Standards. Reference DOT/HS 820 083.
238
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I.
-11-
Rev. B - Feb. 11, 1971
19.
Reliability and maintainability:
The reliability and maintainability of the vehicle shall equal or
exceed that of the spark-ignition automobile. The mean-time-between
failure should be Tlaximized to reduce the number ot unscheduled
service trips. Al~ failure modes should not rcpre~ent a serious
safety hazard during vehicle operation and servici~g. Failure
propagation should be minimized. The power plant ~hould be designed
I for ease of maintel.ance and repairs to minimize costs. maintenance
, personnel educatio~. and downtime. Parts requiring frequent servicing
shall be easily accessable.
20.
Cost of ownership:
The net cost of ownership of the vehicle shall be minimized for
ten years and 10s.nOO miles of operation. The net cost of ownership
includes initial purchase price (less scrap value). other fixed costs,
operating and maintenance costs. A target goal should be to not
exceed 110 percent of the average net cost of o\lnership of the present
standard size automobile with spark-ignition engine as determied by
the U.S. Department of Commerce 1969-70 statisticE: on such ownership.
239
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APPEND IX II
STRUCTURED VALUE ANALYSIS
1.0
BASIC CONCEPT
Structured Value Analysis is a method of rank-ordering systems
in terms of an abstract set of value criteria.
The technique was used
. previously on several programs, references land 2.
The basic compari-
son is straightforward and merely matches system performance against
some value to the user of the system in order to obtain a numerical
value versus performance.
In later stages this value versus perfor-
mance can be compared with cost information to obtain such ratios as
cost/performance, cost/effectiveness or cost/benefit.
The analysis makes use of value judgments of experts, either
individually or by consensus, to provide information and data where
hard data is unavailable.
As such, much of the information going into
the model is subjective, but the results can be of high utility.
Structured Value Analysis is an operational technique designed to give
answers on gross models without necessitating large amounts of data
gathering.
It provides a means for comparing alternate solutions of approaches
to model systems with each other.
Thus, the results are relative and
not absolute.
The objective is to make maximum use of as much information as is
available about the system.
Much of this information is contained in
the experience of experts associated with the system.
In some cases
this information, often consisting of unstructured or perhaps
biased ideas is the only information available.
Structured Value
Analysis seeks to extract this information, check it for validity,
240
-------
and/or utility in a manner which allows quantification and manipulation.
In the absence of objective criteria, the maximum information imbedded
in subjective criteria must be utilized effectively.
Critical areas are
identified by Structured Value Analysis and indicate where further
gathering of objective information would be most effective.
The method
is of high utility for decision making.
It is a tool for decision
mak~ng, not a decision maker in itself.
Reference 3 discusses this in detail and provides a listing of
Structured Value Analysis Definitions which are shown here iri Table XI.
Essentially a set of values, or multiple sets of values for a system
model are developed through the use of measurement scales, value func-
tions, and weights.
Particular sets of data for candidate systems are
evaluated against these sets of values in order to compare candidate
sets with all others on a particular scale of values termed structured
value.
The value sets thus determined can be examined by techniques
of sensitivity analysis to maximize the information known about the
value sets and their implications.
Critical areas can be identified
and through iterative techniques, the value sets can be continuously
up-graded.
The Basic Equations and Steps of Structured Value Analysis
There are many ways in which the equations for Structured Value
Analysis may be expressed.
Two different basic modes are given in
reference 3 as follows:
241
-------
I--~---
TABLE XI
STRUCTURED VALUE ANALYSIS DEFINITIONS
Model Parameters -
The basic kinds of information that make up the
model.
Parameter Measurement Scales -
The basic scales by which parameters
are measured.
These consist of a minimum of the ranget a
maximum of the ranget and a scale for expressing increments
of the range.
Value -
An intrinsic value to the model user expressed as a linear
scale between zero and one where zero is minimum value and
unity is maximum value to the
user.
Value Function -
A function relating points on the parameter measure-
ment scale to the value scale for a particular parameter.
These functions may result from explicit information or through
value judgment.
Term -
A parameter related to other parameters by an additive
relationship.
Factor -
A parameter related to other parameters by a multiplicative
relationship.
Weight -
The relative importance of terms in a model expressed as a
decimal fraction - weights for a set of terms add to unity.
Value Set -
A specific set of model parameters made up of terms
and factorst expressed in particular measurement scalest
value functions and weights.
242
-------
TABLE XI (CONT'D)
Candidate Set -
A particular system to be evaluated against particular
value sets.
Data Set -
The set of values obtained for a particular candidate
set.
The data sets are sets of single values for each
parameter of the value set.
Structured Value -
The resultant value of a particular value set
evaluated for a particular data set.
This value is between
zero and unity and allows many data sets to be ranked
numerically in relation to one another.
Sensitivity Analysis -
A technique made practical by computer
technology that determines the degree that a variation in
each parameter affects the output index (structured value
here).
Those parameters affecting the output the greatest
are the most critical parameters.
Group -
A set of parameters related by summation or multiplication.
In the present program only two groups are allowed.
The
first group is always additive.
The second group can be
additive or multiplicative and the two groups are always
multiplied together to compute the final value.
243
-------
Mode 1
1 Set of Addends,
1 Set of Factors
VI
=
n
n
j=l
F j (Xj)
m
L AiF i(xi)
i=l
where
m
L Ai = 1
i=l
Mode 2
2 Sets of Addends
n
V2 = L AjFj (x.)
j=l J
m
L AiFi (xi)
i=l
where
m
L A =1
i=l i
and
n
L A"l
j=l j
v = Value
A = Weight
F = Value Function
x = Input Value
i&j are indices
In Mode 1, Structured Value is a set of n factors multiplied by
a set of m terms.
In Mode 2, Structured Value is a set of n terms
multiplied by another set of m terms.
In this case one of the sets
of terms may be considered as a single factor and }wde 1 is then used.
In both modes the factors are developed from value functions, F and
have a particular value as input X.
The terms are derived in the same
manner except each is weighted in relative importance by various
weights, A, where the total sum of weights equals unity.
244
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The Steps in Setting up a Structured Value Analysis
The steps to be followed in setting up a Structured Value Analysis
are as follows:
1.
The Model Parameters are Identified
These are the basic system attributes or variables.
They
represent the kind of information needed to describe and adequately
evaluate the systems under study.
Any parameter which is so critical
that an unacceptable performance of it would justify complete rejec-
tion of the candidate system is designated as a factor.
All other
parameters are terms.
2.
Establish Measurement Scales
A minimum and maximum of range and the internal scale between
the range limits must be established for each model parameter.
3.
Establish Value Functions
Value functions, relating points on the measurement scale to an
arbitrary value scale may be determined.
With each level of per-
formance there is associated some value on a scale from 0 to 1,
where 1 represents the level of performance beyond which no further
value accrues.
Similarly, the 0 represents the level of performance
at which the data no longer has any possible value.
The development
of these curves is based on information which. falls into three
categories,
o
No information - use best guess and/or linear relationship.
o
Biased Information - (i.e., subjective) alter the limits and
shape of the curves by using expert opinions.
245
-------
o
Analytical Information - (exact relationship is known) use
an analytic fashion.
4.
Establish Weights
In order to determine the relative importance of the terms a
weighting is established for each.
The relative importance of these
terms is usually a judgment expressing value to the user.
5.
Test the Value Set
The value sets are subjected to sensitivity analysis to deter-
mine the behavior of the value sets and to identify those terms
and factors which are moat critical.
If a value set does not behave
in the manner expected, it is then adjusted and the sensitivity
analysis repeated until a value set with suitable behavior is
obtained.
6.
Enter Data Sets
Data sets for candidate systems are then evaluated against
value sets to determine their relative value and ranked in terms
of the results.
7.
Test the Data Sets
A sensitivity analysis may be performed for each data set
evaluated to determine which parameters are most critical for that
data set.
Assumptions and Critical Factors
A number of important assumptions and critical factors are
involved in the use of. the model.
The principal ones are:
246
-------
1.
Each of the value functions are independent.
Thus. changes in
performance for one attribute should not cause changes anywhere else
in the model.
This is not strictly true in all cases.
However, in
the present study it is assumed that such occurrences are not serious
enough to cause any significant changes in the relative system values.
2.
A critical assumption is that the parameters chosen to characterize
,
,
the performance of the various systems. the consensus of experts as
to the relative value of these parameters and their characteristics
as shown in the value curves. adequately represent the value of the
systems to the users.
Results cannot be better than the input
information.
This model is merely a tool for eliciting maximum
information from available inputs.
3.
It is possible that the performance data for one particular term
may reach such a poor level that the zero value corresponding to
it does not penalize the overall system sufficiently and that in
fact this poor level of performance should cause the entire system
to fail.
For example. the curve for starting reliability reaches
zero value at approximately the 10% failure level.
But a zero value
for this parameter alone would have little effect on the overall system
value since it is only a term.
However. consider the case of a system
which has a starting failure level of 50%.
It is logical to state
that such a system should never be accepted even through it may
score high in th~ overall evaluation.
The point to be emphasized
here is that structured value analysis works best when extreme low
values are not encountered for terms.
It is assumed that in the
247
-------
actual use of this model a procedure to identify such extreme cases
is incorporated.
Thus only those systems whose performance is above
some specified extreme levels will be subjected to evaluation by
the model.
248
-------
2.0
OPERATION AND LOGIC OF THE SOFTWARE
The software consists of a main program and four subroutines.
. The main program controls and links all the subroutines together.
Four
subroutines, namely BUILDV, BUILDD, EVAUL and SENSI, perform four
,
options (1) build a value set (Valset; (2) build a data set (Datset);
(3) evaluate Datset against Va1set and (4) perform sensitivity anlaysis
of the parameters in a Valset.
Any combination of options can be
executed during a computer run.
The logic of the main program is shown in Figure 12.
A brief
description of the computational procedure is as follows:
a.
The main program reads in control variables such as the ~umber
of groups, number of parameters in each group, data set reference
number, number of steps and the option code of each step.
According to the option code of each step, the program calls
different subroutines to build a Valset, build a Datset, evaluate
the Datset against Valset, and perform sensitivity analysis on
the parameters in the Va1set.
b. If the option code is equal to 1, the main program calls the
subrout1.ne BUILDV. According to the number of groups and the
parameter~ in each group, the subroutine reads in the attributes
of the parameter and coordinates of the break points (if any) and,
computes the slope between the break points.
Then, the weights of
the parameters for each group are read in.
The Valset is printed
and can be written on file if requested.
249
-------
IOPT=l
SUBROUTINE
BUILDV (IRR)
IOPT=2
SUBROUTINE
BUILDD (IRR)
INITILIZATION
CONTROL PARAMETER NT,
NP,N2ID,NTV,NTD,NTW,
NTT,MULT
NUMBER OF STEPS IN
EACH RUN. THE OPTION
CODE OF EACH RUN.
FIGURE 12
IOPT=3
SUBROUTINE
EVAUL
NO RECORD ERROR
YES
LOGIC FLOW OF MAIN PROGRAM
250
IOPT=4
SUBROUTINE
SENSI
-------
c.
If the option code is equal to 2, the subroutine BUILDD is called
to accept the data points collected as Datset corresponding to
the parameters structured in the Valset.
If requested, the Datset
can be written on file.
d.
If the option code is equal to 3, the subroutine EVAUL is called.
Parameter by parameter data in the Datset is mapped according to
the value function of the parameter in Valset, and the SVA is
computed for each set of data points.
e.
If the option code is equal to 4, the subroutine SENSI is called.
For a given set of information (such as number of variations
required, percent of variation and data points for the base
value), the subroutine determines the data point on both sides
of base data point for each parameter according to the given
percent of variation.
For example, if the variation is specified
as !10%, the subroutine would compute two new data points for
each parameter.
These data points would be the original data
point ~lO% of the range of the parameter.
(The range of the
parameter is the difference between the minimum and maximum data
points which represent the practical limits of the parameter.)
By calling subroutine EVAUL, a set of SVA's is calculated by
substituting the new data points into the original Datset one
at a time.
Thus the variation due to each 10% change in a data point
can be calculated.
The program presents the results as follows:
1.
SVA computed with positive variation - Base SVA value X 100
Base SVA value
251
-------
2.
SVA computed with ne~ative variation - Base SVA value X 100
Base SVA value
3.
(SVA computed with positive variation - SVA computed with
negative variation) X 100
In the printout of results parameters are ranked in accordance
with the absolute value of no. 3 above.
The highest absolute value is
ranked first.
Those parameters showing the highest variations are the
most sensitive ones for the data set being tested.
If other basic
data sets are tested the sensitivity will vary in accordance with the
location of each data point on its respective value function.
Those
lying on steep portions of value function curves will show the greatest
sensitivity.
252
-------
1---
3.0
DESCRIPTION AND FORMAT OF INPUT
Input of this program varies from run to run depending on the
number of subroutines to be called.
The control information (such
as number of groups, parameters in each group, and so on) required by
main programs is essential input.
The other input such as name of
thel' parameters, characteristics of the parameter, weights and name of
the data set depends on the subroutine called in the current run.
All input and the format is described in detail below.
3.1
Input for Main Pro~ram
Card Column Name Description
1 1 - 2 NT Number of groups
3 - 4 NP (1) Numb er of parameters in first group
5 - 6 NP (2) Number of parameters in second group
7 - 8 N2ID Indicator of second group
9 - 10
NTV
11 - 12
NTD
13 - 14 NTW
15 - 16 NTI
17 - 18 MULT
o = addended
1 = factor
Data set reference number where Valset
is stored or to be stored. NTV = 5
for Valset input by cards and not to
be stored.
Data set reference number where Datset
is stored or to be stored, NTD = 5 for
Datset, input by cards and not to be
stored.
Data set reference number where SVA
value is stored, NTW = 6 for printer.
Data set reference number points are
stored, NTI = 5 for card input
Indicator for multiple runs
1 = more data to be run
o = for the last run.
253
-------
If there is only one group (NT = I), then the variables all
move two columns (i.e., the column 5 - 6 contains N2ID, column
7 - 8 contains NTV and so on).
Card
2
Column
Name
1 - 2
ITSTP
Description
Total number of steps. A step'is
defined as the process to be accomplished,
such as build a Valset, build Datset, or
evaluate the Datset against the Valset.
Maximum = ten steps per run.
The option code for step 1. The options
3 - 4
IOPT(l)
are:
1 = build a Valset,
2 = build a Datset,
3 = evaluate Datset against Valset,
and
4 = sensitivity analysis.
IOPT
(ITSTP)
The option code for step ITSTP.
Format for these two cards is (2012).
3.2
Input for Subroutine BUILD V
Card
Column
Name
Description
1
1 - 12
MOD
The name of the Va1set.
Format for this card is (3A4).
254
-------
Card
2
Column
1 - 8
9 - 15
16 - 22
23 - 29
30 - 36
37 - 43
44 - 50
51 - 57
58 - 64
65 - 66
67 - 68
Name
PNAME
PMAX
PMIN
PMAXY
PMINY
PCURVE
PSCALE
PSLOPE
C (I ,J)
NBK
NF(I,J)
Description
Name of the parameter
Maximum value of the parameter on x-axis-
common measurement scale
Minimum value of the parameter on x-axis-
common measurement scale
The relative value corresponding to PMAX
The relative value corresponding to PMIN
The code for the value function. Table
XIIlists the code and the function.
The scale for the measurement:
o for linear scale, and
1 for log scale
The slope of the curve. Leave it blank
if the parameter has break points.
Constant for equations 19 and 20
Integer, right hand adjusted number of
break points for linear approximation.
Maximum = 3.
Normalization factor
1 = x-axis need normalization
o = no normalization needed
Format for this card is (2A4, 8F7.0, 212).
Card
3
Column
1 - 7
8 - 14
15 - 21
22 - 28
29 - 35
Name
BKX(I,J.1)
BKY
(I,J,l)
BKX
(I,J.2)
BKY
(r,J,2)
BKX
(I,J,3)
Description
The coordinate on X
point number one of
group I.
The value on Y axis
BKX (I,J,l)
The coordinate on X axis for break
point number two of parameter J in
group I.
axis for break
parameter J in
corresponding to
The value on Y axis corresponding to
BKX (r,J,3)
The coordinate on X axis for break
point number three of parameter J in
group I.
255
-------
TABLE XII
VALUE FUNCTIONS
CODE
FUNCTION
1
2
Y = X
Y = -X
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Y = A*X + B
Y = -A*X + B
Y = X** A
Y = L-X** A
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Y = (1. - X)** A
Y = 1.- (1. -X)** A
Y = A *(1. -X)** A
Y = (1. - A** (1. -X» / (1. -A)
Y = (A**X-A) / (I.-A)
Y = (1. -A**X) / (1. -A)
Y = 1.0 - SIN(I.5708 * X)
Y = COS (1.5708 * X)
Y = 1.0 - COS(1.S708 * X )
Y = SIN(1.5708 * X)
Y = L
Y = 0
Y = TANH(C*X**A)
Y = I.-TANH (C*X**A)
Y = 1 IF X = 1
Y = 0 otherwise
NF = 1 for code 1 through 18
N = 0 for code 19 through 21
256
-------
36-42
BKY
(I,J,3)
Description
The value on Y axis corresponding to
BKX (I,J,3)
Card
Co1unm
Name
Card numbers 2 and 3 are repeated for each parameter of each
group. If NBK = 0 the third card should be skipped.
Format of this card is (7F7.0)
4' 1 - 7 WTS (1,1) The fractional weight of the first
parameter in group 1.
8-14 WTS(1,2) The fractional weight of the second
parameter in group 1.
64 - 70
WTS(1,10) The fractional weight of the 10th
parameter in group 1.
Repeat this card for more than ten parameters in one group
and weights of the parameter in second group.
Format of this card is (10F7.0).
257
-------
3.3 Input for Subroutine BUILDD
Card Column Name Description
1 1 - 80 DID Name of the data set
Format for this card is (20A4).
2
1 - ;1
D(l,l)
Data point for the first parameter of
first group.
64 - 70
D(1,10)
Data point for the tenth parameter of
first group
Repeat this card for more than ten parameters in first group.
3
1 - 7
D (2,1)
Data point for the first parameter
of second group.
64 - 70
D(2,10)
Data point for the tenth parameter of
second group.
Repeat this card for more than ten parameters in second group and
omit this card if there is no second group.
Format for these two cards is (10F7.0).
3.4
Input for Subroutine SENSI
Card Column Name Description
1 1 - 2 NV Number of the percent variations to be
performed, Maximum 10
3 - 9 PCT(l) Percent to be varied for the first
variation.
258
-------
Card Column Name Description
66 - 72 PCT (10) Percent to be varied for the tenth variation.
Format of this card is (I2.10F7.0)
2
1 - 2
LGL
Scale linearization indicator LGL = 1
scale is linear and no need to linearize
the scale.
LGL = 2 scale is log and needs to be
linearized.
3 - 4
MID
The inidcator for choose data point to
be used as base value for sensitivity
analysis
MID = 1 choose middle point of x-axis
as data points.
MID = 0 read in data points.
Format for this card is (212).
3
1 - 80
DIU
Data set name. can be a dummy blank card.
Format for this card is (20A4)
4
1 - 7
D (1,1)
Data point for the first parameter of
first group to be used as a base for
sensitivity analysis.
64 - 70
(D(l,10)
Data point for the tenth parameter of
the first group to be used as a base for
sensitivity analysis.
Repeat this card for more than ten parameters in first group.
5
1 - 7
D(2,l)
Data point for the first parameter of
second group to be used as a base for
sensitivity analysis.
259
-------
~
Column
Name
Description
64
D(2.l0)
Data point for the tenth parameter of
second group to be used as a base for
sensitivity analysis.
Repeat this card for more than ten parameters in second group and omit
this card if there is no second group.
Format for these two cards is (lOF7.0).
260
-------
4.0
PROGRAM LISTING AND SAHPLE INPlIT
The section shows the program listing written in Fortran IV
for the IBM 360/50 series computers.
are sample inputs.
261
At the end of the listing
-------
IISVAAQMN JOB '8860 ,1040,OZZ',POH,CLASS=E,TIME=02,REGION=IQOK
II eXEC FORTGCG
IIFORT.SYSIN 00.
COHMON PNAMECZ,99,21,PMAXC2,991,PMINCZ,991,PCURYECZ,991,
IPSCALE(2,991,N8K (Z,991, BKX(2,99,31,BKY(Z,99,31,8KSLOP(~,99,31,
2WTSCZ,991,OC2,991,010CZOI, NZIO,NTD,NTV, NT,NPC21
3 ,PHAXYCZ,991,PMINYCZ,991,PSLOPC2,991,PRANGE(Z,991,ITSTP,
4 IT ,NTI,NTW ,CI2,991 ,IOPTIIOI,NF(2,991 ,MOOI31
15 READ(5,21 NT, (NPCI', I21,NTI ,N2IO, NTV, NTD, NTW,NTI,MULT
l FURMATI20I21 .
REAO(5, 2) ITSTP,(IOPTIII,I-I,ITSTPI
00 10 1"1, ITSTP
IT=IOPT(J)
GO TO (20,30,40,1001 ,IT
20 CALL BUILOVCIRRI
GO TO 50
30 CALL BUILOOCIRRI
GO TO 50
40 CALL EVAUL CEFFI
WRlTECNTtIj, 51 COIOC KI,K=I,20), EFF
5 fORMAT(IX,ZOA4,Fll.6'
GO TO 50
100 CALL SENSI
5" IFflRRI 10,10, 60
60 DO 65 J=I, ITSTP
IFC 10PTCJI - 3) 10, 1C, 10
65 CONTI NUE
10 WRITE( 6,31
3 FORMATCIHO 'ERROR IN VALSETS OR OATASETS, TRY AGAIN' I
10 CONTINUE
IFCHULT .EQ. 11 GO TO 15
STOP
END
SUBROUTINE BUILOV (IRR)
COMMON PNAMECZ,99,ZI,PMAXCZ,991,PMINC2,99),PCURVECZ,991,
IPSCALE(Z,99),NBK (2,991, BKXCZ,99,3),BKYC2,99,31,BKSLOPI2,99,31,
ZWTSCZ,991,O(Z,991,OIO(ZOI, NZID,NTD,NTV, NT,NP(Z)
3 ,PMAXY(Z,991,PMINY(Z,991,PSlOP(2,991,PRANGEI2,99),ITSTP,
4 IT ,NTI,NTW ,CC2,991 ,IOPTUOI,NFC2,991 ,MOO(3)
IRR20
REAOCS,ll CMOO(I),I-l,3)
1 FORHAT C3A4 1
WRIT E C 6, 10 Z ) 1140 ° CI » , 1=1 , 31
102 FORHATCIHI 35X,'PARAHETERS CONSIDERED IN
1 ,IIHO 3X,'NAME X-MAX X-MIN
Z 6X,'SCALE . SLOPE NO. BK. PT.
00 ZO 1=1, NT
INP=NP(II
DO 20 J"I, I NP
WTS(I,JI=O
READI5,2) CPNAMECI,J,K),K"I,21, PMAXCI~JI, PMINCI,J),
IPMAXYCI,JI, PMINYCI,J),PCURVE(I,JI, PSCALECI,JI,PSLOPCI,JI,CCI,JI,
ZN8K(I,J) ,NFCI,J) .
2 FORMATC2A4,8F1.0,ZI21
IFIN8KCI,JI I 30, 30, 25
25 N8"NBKC I ,J)
READ(5,31 CBKXCI,J,KI,BKYCI,J,K),K=l, N8 I
3 FORMATC7F1.0)
CALL SLOPECI,JI
.
THE HODE--',3A4
WEIGHT CURVE NO',
CONSTANT NOR-fACTOR')
262
-------
30 PRANGEII,JI - PMAXII,JI -PMINII,JI
IFIPSCALEII,JH lO,ZO, 10
10 IFIPMINII,JII 15, 15, 20
15 WRITEI6,71 I PNAMEII,J,KI,K-l,2 I,PMINII,JI, PSCALEII,JI
7 FURMATIIHO 'ERRCR FOR PARAMETER ',ZA4, Zfl0.21
I RR =1
ZO CONTINUE
DO 60 I:21,NT
IFII.EQ.2.AND.NZID.EQ.11 GO TO 60
INP=NPIII
READI5,41 IWTSII,JI, J=l,INPI
4 FORMATIlOF1.01
6(, CONTINUE
4U 00 50 I:l,NT
INP=NPIII
DO 50 J:1, II'\P
NB"NBK I I ,J I
IF I PSCALEII,JII 150,150,155
155 WRITEI6,101 I IPNA~EII,J,KI,K=l,ZI,PMAXII,JI,PMINII,JI,WTSII,JI,
1 PCURVEII,JI, PSLOPII,JI,
2NB,CI I ,JI ,NFl I,JI
101 FORMATI1HO ZA4,312X,FI0.ZI,F10.0,'
1 E1S.3,8X,I21
GO TO 21()
lS0 WRITE16,103 I IPNAMEII,J,KI,K"l,ZI,PMAXCI,JI,PMINII,JI,WTSCI,J),
1 PCURVEII,JI, PSLOPII,JI,
2N B, C I I ,J I, NF I I ,J I
103 FORMATI1HO 2A4,312X,F10.ZI,FI0.0,' LINEAR',SX,FIO.2,8X,I2,ZX,
1 El5.3,8X,IZI
Z10 IFIN8.EQ.01 GO TO 5!
WRITEI6,lOSI IBKXII,J,KI,BKYII,J,KI,BKSLOPII,J,KI,K-I,NBI
105 FORMATI ' THE BK X, y, AND SLOPE :2 . ,3IFI0.l,F5.2,FIO.41
51 IFINTV.EQ.51 GO TO 50 .
WRITEINTV, 61 IPNAMEII,J,KI,K=1,21,PMAXII,JI,PMINII,JI,WTSCI,JJ,
IPMAXYII,JI,PHINYII,JI,PCURVEII,J), PSCALEII,JI,PSLOPII,JI,
2N8,IBKXII,J,KI,BKYCI ,J,KI, BKSLOPII,J,KI,K-1,NB)
6 FORMATI2A4,2FI0.Z,3F5.2, 2F~.O, FIU.4, 12. 3CFI0.Z,F5.2,F10.4)1
SO CONTINUE
100 RETURN
END
SUBROUTINE SlOPEII,JI
COMMON PNAMEIZ,99,ZI,PMAXIZ,991,PMINI2,99),PCURYEI2,991,
IPSCAlEI2,991,NBK 12,991, BKXIZ,99,3J,BKYI2,99,31,BKSlOPIZ,99,3),
2wTSIl,99),DIl,99I,DIDIZOI, NZID,NTD,NTV, NT,NPIlJ
3 ,PMAXYI2,99J,PMINYI2,99),PSLOPIZ,99),PRANGEIZ,99I,ITSTP,
4 IT ,NTI,NTW ,CIZ,991 ,IOPTIIOI,NFI2,991 ,MODI31
DIMENSION V131
M=NBKII, JI
DO ZO K=l,M
CALL NORM II, J, BKXII,J,K), VIKI I
ZO CONTINUE
PSLOPII,JI .. IBKYII,J,lJ - PMINYII,J)J /lVllJ- 0.1
GO TO I 30, 40, SO ), M
30 BKSLOPII,J.11 : IPMAXYII,J) - BKYII,J,l) ) I I 1. - V(1)J
GO TO 100
40 BKSLOPII,J,11 .. IBKYII,J,Z) - BKYII,J,lJI I I VIZI - Villi
BKSLOPIl,J,ZI .. IPMAXYII,JI - BKYII,J,Z)I I I 1. -VIZII
GO TO 100
50 BKSLOPII,J,U = 18KYCI,J,ZI - 8KYCI,J,UI II VIZI - VCl)J
LCG',5X,FIO.Z,8X,IZ,lX,
263
-------
...._~--_._.~-- ~ .-- _.~....--
BKSLOP(I,J,Z) :: CBKYCI,J,3' - BKYII,J,ZH IC V(3) - VCZ"
BKSLOPCI,J,3) :: CPMAXY(I,J' - BKYCI,J,3JJ IC 1. - VC3II
100 RETURN
END
SUBROUTINE BUILODCIRRI
COMMON PNAMEIZ,99,Z.,PMAXCZ,99.,PHINCZ,99.,PCURVECZ,99),
IPSCALECZ,99),NBK IZ,99', BKXCZ,99,3J,8KYC2,99,31,BKSLOPC2,99,3),
lwTSIZ,991,DI2,99',DIDCZO', NZIO~NTD,NTV, NT,NPCZI
3 ,PMAXYCZ,99"PMINYCZ,991,PSlOPCZ,99a,PRANGEI2,991,ITSTP,
4 IT ,NTI,NTW ,CC2,99' ,IOPTCIO),NfCZ,99) ,MOOC31
IRR=O
10 READCNTI, 5,END=500' CDIDCI),I~I,20'
5 FORMAT IZOA4)
DO 100 1=1, NT
I NP=NP II .
REAOINTI,61 10II,JI,J=1,INP'
6 FORMATIlOF7.0.
IFCNTD.EQ.5. GO TO 100
WRITECNTO, 6) COCl,J ',J=I,HP)
100 CONTINUE
500 RETURN
END
SUBROUTINE EVAUl CEFF'
COMMON PNAMECZ,99,21,PMAXCZ,99),PMINCZ,991,PCURVECZ,99),
IPSCALECZ,99',NBK CZ,99', BKXCZ,99,),8KYCZ,99,3',BKSlOPCZ,99,3),
ZWTSCZ,99),OC2,99),DIDCZOJ, NZIO,NTD,NTV, NT,NPC21
3 ,PMAXYCZ,99),PMINYC2,99),PSlOPCZ,99),PRANGECZ,99),ITSTP,
4 IT ,NTI,NTw ,CIZ,99' ,IOPTCI0),NFCZ,99) ,MUO(3)
D I HE NS ION Y A 12 )
I RR-O
DO 10 1=1, ITSTP
IFCIOPTCI..EQ.l) GO TO 100
10 CONTINUE
zO REWIND NTV
DO 30 I -1, NT
INP=NPCI)
DO 30 J=I, INP
READ 1 NTV, 1. C PNAME C I, J,K' ,K=1 ,2 I, PMAXC I ,i) ,PMINI I ,J ',WTSC I,J',
IPMAXYCI,J),PMINYII,JI,PCURVECI,J), PSCAlECI,J',PSlOPCI,J),
2NB, C 8KX C I , J, K) ,5K Y II ,J, K), BKSLOP 1 I ,J, K' ,K-l, NB'
1 fORMATC2A4,2FI0.2,3F5.l, 2F3.0, F10.4, 12, 9CFI0.2,F5.2,FI0.4..
NBKCI,J)=N8
30 CONTI Nue
101 FORMATC 19A4,A3,11FI0.2.
100 DO 110 1=1, NT
I NP=NP II)
DO 110 J=I, INP
IfCOII,J..GE.PMINII,J'.ANO. DCI,J'.LE.PMAXII,J" GO TO 110
WRITEC 6, 102. I, J, OCI,J', PMINCI,J., PMAXCI,J'
102 FORMATCIHO 'OFF LI~ITS,I, J, X ,MIN, MAX ARE='. 2I2,3F15.4)
IFCDCI,J..lT.PMINCI,JI. DCI,JI=PMINCI,JI
IFCOII,J'.GT.PMAXCI,J') DCI,JI=PMAXCI,J)
IRR=1
110 CONTINUE
EFF=l
120 UO 500 1=1, NT
IFCI.EQ.Z .AND. N2ID.EQ.ll GO TO 125
YAC 1)=0.
GO TO 130
. \
264
-------
c
125 VAl I'sol
130 INP=NPIU
DO 490 J=I,INP
U= 0 C I , J J
CALL NORMI I ,J,U,XI
IF C NF I I, J . . EQ. C' X=O I I, J t
A=PSLOPCI,J'
B=PHINVII,JI
N=PCURVEII,JI
IFI NBKII,J" 400,400,150
BREAKPOINT COMPUTATION
150 U=8K)(CI,J,ll
CAll NORMC I, J, U, xl.
BX=Xl .
IFIX.GE. XII GO TO 200
100 CALL CURVE I 3, A, 8, X, V ,CCI,JII
GO TO 405 .
200 JFINBKII,JI.GT.l , GO TO 25C
230 B=BKYCI,J,1)
AsoBKSlUPCI,J,l'
X-X-BX
GO TO 160
250 U=8KXCI,J,2 ,
CAll NORMII, J, U, XI ,
IFIX. GE. Xl I GO TO 21G
GO TO 230
210 BX=X1
IFCNBKCI,Jt .GT. 2 t GO TO 350
300 B=BKYCI,J,21 .
A=BKSlOPII, J, 2 I
X=X-6X
GO TO 160
350 U"'BKXCI,J,31
CAll NORMI I, J, U, Xl'
IF IX. LT. Xl t GO TO 300
B=8KVCI,J.3t
A-BKSlOPCI ,J,3'
)(=X-Xl
GO TO 160
~OO CAll CURVE I N.
't05 IFCI - 1) 420,
~10 IFCN210.NE.l ,
YACI)" VACII.V
GO TO 490
~20 YAII,s: VACI) + WTSCI,JI . Y
~90 CONTI NUE
500 CONTINUE
00 600 l-l,NT
EFF-EFF.YA I I I
600 CONTINUE
1000 RETURN
END
SUBROUTINE NORMCI,J, U, X t
COMMON PNAME(Z,99,2t,PMAXC2,99t,PMINC2,99t,PCUR¥E(Z,99),
IPSCAlEIZ,99',NBK (2,99'. 8KXIZ,99,3,,8KYCZ.99.3).8KSlOPC2.99,3),
2WTSIZ.99t.DCZ,99t,oIOCZOI, NZIO.NTD,NTV. NT.NPCZ)
3 .PMAXY(2,99t,PMINVCZ,99t,PSLOPIZ,99',PRANGE(Z,99I,ITSTp,
4 IT .NTI,NTW ,CC2.991 ,IOPTUO'.NF(2.991 ,MOD(3)
IFCPSCAlE( I,J») 10, 10, 20
A. 8, X, Y ,CCI.JJI
420. 410
GO TO 420
265
-------
lU x =C U - PMINIl,JII I C PMAXII,JI - PMINII,JII
GO TO 3U
20 X =1 AlOGI0C U) - AlOGIOCPMINII,JI II/C ALOG10IPMAXCI,JI I
1- AlOGI0IPMINCI,JIII
30 RETURN
END
SUBROUTINE eURVECN,A,B,X,Y ,el
GO TO Cl,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10,11, lZ, 13, 14,15, 16,17,18,
1 19,20,21) ,N
1 Y=X
GO TO 1000
Z Y=-)(
GO TO 1000
3 Y=A.X . B
GO TO 1000
4 Y=-A.X +8
GO TO 1000
5 Y=X.. A
GO TO 101CJ
6 Y=l.- X." A
GO TO 1000
7 Y=Cl. - )( I .. A
GO TO 1000
8 Y=l.- 11. -X I .. A
GO TO 1000
9 Y-A .ll./A..X - 1.1 Ill. -AI
GU TO 1000
10 yael. - A..Cl. - XI I IC1.-AI
GO TO 1000
11 Y=(A" X-AI ICl.-A I
GO TO 1000
12 y-el. -A.. X I le1.-AI
GO TO 1000
13 Y=1.0 - SINel.5708 . XI
GO TO 1000
14 Y=COSl1.5708 . XI
GO TO 1000
15 Y~1.0 - COSC1.5708 " )()
GU TO 1000
16 Y-SINC1.5708 . )( I
GO TO 1000
17 Yal.
GO 10 1000
18 Y=O
19 Y-TANHee.X..AI
GO TO 1000
ZO Y=l.-TANHeC.X..AI
GO TO 1000
Zl Y-O
IFeX.EQ.ll Val
1000 RETURN
END
SUBROUTINE SENSI
COMMON PNAMECZ,99,ZI,PMAXIZ,991,PMINIZ,991,peURVEeZ,991,
lPSeALEC2,991,NBK IZ,991, BKX(Z,99,31,BKY(2,99,31,BKSlOpe2,99,31,
ZWTSCZ,991,DCZ,991,DIDIZOI, NZID,NTD,NTV, NT,NPC21
3 ,PMAXY(Z,99),PMINV(2,991,PSlOP(2,991,PRANGE(2,99),ITSTP,
4 IT ,NTI,NTW ',CC2,991 ,IOPTUOt,NFCZ,991 ,MOOC3I
DIMENSION SL(ZI ,MMIZ,991,MICZOOI,MJCZOOI
26.6
-------
DIMENSION PCTfl~J,OMf2,99J,TSt2,99J,DIFt3,2,99J
DATA Sl/'lINR','lOG 'I
READt5, IJ NY, fPCTfIJ,I=l,NYI
lFfNV.EO. ~I GO TO 200
1 FORMATfI2,10F7.01
10 READ f 5, 2' lGl, MID
2 FORMAT( 212 ,
IFI HID.NE. II GO TO 300
DO 40 ID1,NT
J NP=NP (I I
DO 25 J=l,INP
IFf PSCALEf I, JI .EO, 0 J GO TO 20
IFflGL.EQ. 1 I GO TO 20
OMII,JI=(AlCGI0(PMAX(I,JII-AlOGIO(PMINII.JIJJ/2.
OMf I,JI=OMI I.JI+AlOGI0fPMINfl,JII
DMII.JI=10..*DMfl,JI
GO TO 30
20 OMfl,JI = I PMAXfI,JI - PMJNfl,JI I 12.+PMIN(I,JI
30 TSII,JI=PSCAlEfl;JI
PSCALE f I ,J' =0
Ofl. J 1 = OMfl, JI
25 CONTINUE
40 CONTINUE .
50 CALL EVAUL fEFFI
WRITEf6,31 fMODfIXI.IX=1,31.SlfLGl'
3 FORMATtlHl 'SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF VAlSET-',3A4,5X,'SCAl~"',A4'
WRITEfb, 4 1 EFF
4 FORMATt IHO 'BASE VALUE.. " Fl1.6
00 55 1=I,NT
INP-NP(I'
WRITEt6.600J fOfl.JI,J-l,INPI
600 FORMAT fiX,' DATA FOR BASE VALUE ARE ',fl0FI0.2IJ
55 CONTINUE
DO 100 1<,-1. NV
WRITEt 6, 5' PCTfKI
5 FORMATf IIIHO 'PERCENT VARIATION IS:', F8.2 II'
DO 60 1=1, NT
I NP. N P f II
DO 60 J=I. I NP
MMfl,JJ=O
OV"PCTtKJ * PRANGEtl,JJ/I00,
O(I,J'" DM(I, JI + Ov
IFf otl.JI .GT. PMAXfl,JII Ofl,J'=PMAXII,JI
CAll E VAULC EFVlI
Of I ,J J :DM f I , J I - DV
IFfOfl,JJ.LT. PMINfl. JJ, Dfl. J, =PMINfl.JJ
CAll E YAUL f EFV2 I
01FI3,I,JJ =fEFVl
OIFfl,I.JI =fEFVl
DIF f2, I ,JI =IEFY2
Dtl,JJ-DMfl,JJ
60 CONTINUE
IR=O
DO 80 1:oI.NT
1 NP-NP III
DO 80 J-l,I NP
IR-IR+1
GG=O
DO 70 11-1, NT
- EFV2 ) *100.
- EFFI . 100. IEFF
-EFFI . 100. IEFF
267
-------
I NPl=NPI I I I
00 70 JJ"I, INPI
IFIHMIII,JJ).EQ.I) GO TO 70
IFCABSCOIFI3,II,JJ).LT.GGI GO TO 70
GG=ABSCDIFC3,II,JJ)
IL"'II
Jl=JJ
70 CONTINUE
MMIIL,JLI-1
HJCIR)"'Jl
MICIRI=IL
80 CONTINUE
WRITE(6,71
7 FORHAT(3X,'NAME
1 5X,IPCT. OIFF.I)
DO 90 1=I.IR
IL=HIC I )
JL=HJCI I
WRITECb,81 IPNAHECIL,JL,LI,L=1,Z),IL,JL,I,IOIFCL,IL,JLI,L=I,31
8 FORHATI1X,ZA4,2IZX,I21,3X,I3,3C3X,FI2.bl)
90 CONTINUE
1CD CONTINUE
GO TO 500
200 NV-IO
DO 210 1=1,10
PCTCI)=I.10
210 CONTINUE
GO TO 10
300 CALL BUIlDDCIRRI
DO 310 1:01, NT
INP.,NPCII
DO 310 J=rl,INP
DHII,J):oOCI,JI
310 CONTINUE
GO TO 50
500 RETURN
END
IIGO.SYSABEND DD SYSOUT-A
IIGO.SYSIN DO .
I
J
ORDER
PCT.
POSe
PCT.
NEG.I ,
SAMPL E ,
1 NP UT
2 6 5 1 5 5 6 5 1
2 1 4
EMJSS ION
SMOKE 4.6 .95 0 1 20 02.394 .05004
ODOR 5.1 .49 0 1 20 01.564 .1479
MAXNOISE84. 70. 0 1 20 023.05 105E-44
IDLNOISE69. 55. 0 1 20 018.54 192E- 36
lSPNOISE 70. 56. 0 1 20 018.84 409E-37
INTNOISEbb. 49. 0 1 20 020.83 b08E-40
EHCO 4.6 3.3 () 1 20 012.84 747E-ll
EMHC .51 .29 0 1 20 7.048 242.4
EMNOX .50 .34 Q 1 20 10.1 3782.
EMSOX .46 .09 0 1 20 2.394 12.39
EHPART .076 .009 0 1 20 1.787 187.5
.20 .20 .12 .14 .20 .14
310. 20. 30.
268
-------
1 0
THIS IS A MIDDLE VALUE POINT TEST
Z. 120 2.314 18.84 ~3. 11 64.11 59.46
4.100 .4aS .4318 . 2 720 .03823
16055650
2 1 4
RHIAB-HAI NT
SYSCPXa1 200 0 0 1 20 01.1.18 6.15E-3
ESRTS\l82 1 (; 1 () 19 01.938 2.269
UNSCRP83 40 (; 0 1 20 01.32 q 1.99E-2
DSGLFE84 4800 1Z0{) 1 0 19 04.504 1.9E-11
8TWSER85 16 0 1 (j 19 01.081 1.00E-l
MILE13F86 51000 8000 1 0 19 03.102 3.9E-15
.15 .1 .1 .3 .1 .25
310. 20. 30.
1 0
THIS IS MIDDLE VALUE POINT
51. .5 lQ. 3300. 5. 36250.
269
-------
5.0
SAMPLE OUTPUT
The three Tables shown here are typical examples of the results
printed out after a structured value/sensitivity analysis run.
Tables XIII and XIV show the complete printout for a sensitivity
analysis while Table XV is included to show how the input data
for straight line functions are printed.
The columns shown in Tables XIII and XV are defined as follows:
NAME - An 8 character alphanumeric representation of each value
function.
X-MAX,X-MIN - Many of the value functions theoretically range from
o to infinity.
However, the computer program requires
practical limits for each value function.
The maximum and
minimum values shown are those points where the function
approaches a value of 0 or 1 in a practical sense.
These
are subjectively selected by inspection of the plotted
value functions.
WEIGHT - The A weightings assigned to each term.
If a 0 is shown
that function is a factor.
CURVE NO. - The number assigned to that type of function as listed
in Section 3 of this appendix.
SCALE - The range of the value functions may be input on a linear
or log scale as indicated.
SLOPE - The exponent, n, of the function
n
V = Tanh a x
or
I-Tanh axn
270
-------
TABLE XII I
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED IN THE MODE-EMISSION
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED IN THE MODE--EHISSION
NAME' X-MAX X-MIN WEIGHT CURVE NO SCALE SLOPE NO. BK. PT. CONSTANT NOR-FACTOR
SMOKE 4.60 0.95 0.20 20. LINEAR 2.39 0 0.500E-01 0
ODOR 5.10 0.49 0.20 20. LI NEAR 1.56 0 0.148E 00 0
MAXNOISE 84.00 70.00 0.12 20. LINEAR 23.05 0 0.105E-43 0
;
N JDLNOISe 69.00 55.00 0.14 20. LINEAR 18.54 0 0.192E-33 0
-..J
,......
LSPNOISE '10.00 56.00 0.20 20. LINEAR 18.84 0 0.409E-34 0
INTNOISE 66.00 49.00 0.14 20. LINEAR 20.83 0 C.608E-31 0
EMCO 4.60 3.30 0.0 20. LINEAR 12.84 0 0.141E-08 0
EMHC 0.51 0.29 0.0 20. LINEAR 7.05 0 0.242E 03 0
EMNOX 0.50 0.34 0.0 20. LINEAR 10.70 0 0.378E 04 0
EMSOX 0.46 0.09 0.0 20. LINEAR 2.39 0 ('I.124E 02 0
EMPART 0.08 0.01 0.0 20. L1 NEAR 1.79 0 0.18BE 03 0
-------
TABLE XIV
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF VALSET-EMISSION
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF VAL SET-EMISSION SCALE-LINR
BASE VALUE - 0.015591
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 10.00
NAME I. J OROER PCT~ pos. PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
EMCO 2 1 1 -35.162109 30.561569 -1.024700
EMNOX 2 .3 2 -33.497696 29.366959 -0.980126
EMHC 2 2 3 -31.275192 28.(\99030 -0.925706
EMSOX 2 4 4 -26.459564 26.200150 -0.821020
EHPART 2 5 5 -24.983307 25.845032 -0.792467
lSPNOISE 1 5 6 . -7.037911 6.038696 -0.203878
INTNOISE 1 6 7 -7.18(:053 5.849435 -0.203237
SMOKE 1 1 8 -5.228~05' 5.178307 -0.162245
ODOR 1 2 9 -4.918939 5.213264 -0.157972
IDLNOISE 1 4 10 -4.92 C;669 4.243008 -0.143012
MAXNOISE 1 3 11 -4.259328 3.649273 -0.123303
PERCENT VARIATION IS: 20.00
NAME I J ORDER . PCT. POS. PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
EMCO 2 1 1 -67.490234 53.806717 -1.891146-
EMNOX 2 3 2 -64.711792 52.095535 -1.821148
EMHC 2 2 3 -60.556778 50.58812'0 -1.732865
EMSOX 2 4 4 -50.335358 49.664627 -1.559104
EMPART 2. 5 5 -47.016190 50.249985 -1.516481 .
lS PNOI SE 1 5 6 -13.587985 10.591991 -0.376991
INTNOISE 1. 6 7 -12.342190 9.547833 -0.341288
SMOKE 1 1 8 -9.958401 9.828992 -0.308506
ODOR 1 2 9 -9.190122 10.277217 -0.303516
IOLNOIse 1 4 10 -9.495435 7.448288 -0.264170
MAXNOISE 1 3 11 -8.204502 6.392829 -0.227588
.PERCENT VARIATION IS: 30.00
NAME I J ORDER PCT. POSe PCT. NEG. PCT. DIFF.
EMCO 2 1 1 -88.702652 70.211533 -2.477638
EMNOX 2 3 2 -86.3~1955 68.442917 -2.413102
EMHC 2 2 3 -82.157669 67.287277 -2.330003
EHSOX 2 4 4 -69.410294 /68.850845 -2.155637
EMPART 2 5 5 -64.765625 ,71.223129 -2.120208
LSPNOISE 1 5 6 -17.888641 13.794860 -0.493979
SMOKE 1 1 7 -13.760189 13.651256 -0.427373
ODOR 1 2 8 -12.619572 lit. 143584 -0.426620
If'jTNOISE 1 6 9 -13.848045 11.656675 -0.397645
IOLNOISE 1 4 10 -12.474370 9.705009 -0.345800
HAXNOISE 1 3 11 -10.149595 8.318022 -0.291284
272
-------
TABLE XV
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED IN THE MODE-OPERATION PERF
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED IN THE ~ODE--OPERATN PERF
NA~E X-MA X X-MIN WEIGHT CURVE NO seAL E SLOPE NO. BK. PT. CONSTANT NOR-FACTOR
START 61.00 9.00 0.06 20. LINEAR 2.01 0 0.490E-03 0
e OLD SOAK 41.00 4.00 0.')5 20. LINEAR 1.73 0 0.308E-02 0
STRTREL1 9.00 1.00 0.06 20. LINEAR 2.60 0 0.821E-02 0
FUELCSP 18.00 4.50 0.06 21). LINEAR 2.87 0 O.490E-03 0
e RPTi(Q 56.0~ 24.00 0.04 20. L INf.~R 4.57 0 0.207E-07 0
,
SUSIDLE 61.00 29.00 0.05 19. LINEAK 5.19 0 0.107E-08 0
Ace TE NSC 800.00 250.00 . 0.07 3. l I N EAR 2.89 2 0.0 1
N THE Br< X, Y, AND SLOPE = 't40. 00 1.00 0.0 6CO.OU 1.CO -2.7500
......
w AAC2570 22.00 6.50 2 1
0.10 3. L INE~." 10.33 0.0
THE 5K X, Y. AND SLOPE = 8.00 1.0,) 0.0 13.\)0 1.CO -1.7222
HI $PPASS 1800.(10 1 COO.OO 0.09 3. LINE.'AFi. 8.00 2 0.0 1
THE Bi<. X. Y. AND SLOPE = 1100.00 I,; 0() 0.0 1350.00 1.DO -1.7778
CrtSSPO 95.0~ 65.00 0.10 3. LI NEA R 2.00 2 0.0 1
THE oK X, Y. AND SLOPE = 8'0 .00 1.00 0.0 85.0') 1.00 -3.00:JO
MAXSPD 110.00 80.00 0.05 3. LINE.hR 6.0J 2 0.0 1
THE BK X, Y. AND SLaPE = 85.00 1.0C 0.0 95.0:1 1.CO -2.0GOO
SPDGi<.ADE 11. ao 0.0 v.07 20. LINEAR 1.56 0 0.500E-Ol 0
RNGUR.B~ 255.00 160.00 0.09 19. LINEAR 8.66 0 0.306E-20 0
RNGCRSE 255.00 16Q.00 0.11 19. LINEAR 8.66 0 O.306E-20 0
-------
For straight line functions this number is the slope of the
first segment.
NO.BK.PT. - The number of break points in a function composed of
straight line segments.
The first and last points are not
counted.
CONSTANT - The a value contained. in the hyperbolic tangent functions
shown above.
A zero entry is used for straight line functions.
NOR-FACTOR - The 1 indicates that the input data has been normalized.
THE BK Xt Yt and SLOPE - For straight line functions the second
line contains break point data:
Xlt Yl - data point and value of 1st break point
SLOPEI - slope of the line segment between first and
second break points
X2~ - data point and value of second break point.
SLOPE2'- etc.
Table XIV shows the results of the structured value computa-
tion and the sensitivity analysis.
The base value of the run is
shown in the upper left (viz. 0.015591).
The percent variation
which was defined earlier in this Appendix is shown at the head of
each sensitivity run.
Each sensitivity run applies to only ~
particular set of input data.
In this example data points for each
value function corresponding to a value to the user of 0.5 were input.
The columns are defined as follows:
NAME - Same definition as above.
274
:1\
-------
I - The indicator 1 or 2 shows from which group the value function
came.
J - The code number assigned to each value function by the computer.
ORDER - The rank of the value function ordered according to the
highest absolute value in the last sensitivity column.
PCT.POS/PCT.NEG. - The change in the base value resulting from
the indicated positive or negative variation in the input
data for the particular value function listed divided by
the base value.
The printed values are multiplied by 100
yielding a percent reading.
For example, a 10% downward
variation in the input data for the value function EMCO
(Carbon Monoxide Emissions) would cause a -35% change in
the base value 0.015591.
Similarly the positive change
would be 30.6%.
PCT.DIFF. - This ~umber is the difference between the base value
computed for the positive variation minus the base value
computed for the negative variation multiplied by 100.
It is not really a percentage.
It shows the absolute change
in the base value over the! variation selected.
For example,
the difference of -1.0247 for ENCO in the 10% range shows
that the variation in the base value of the emissions category
is 0.010247 when the input data for EMCO is varied from -10%
to +10%.
The positive and negative signs merely indicated
the direction of the slope of the variation.
275
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REFERENCES
1.
Weather Systems Group, "Report of Trade-Off Analysis on SESAME
System Candidates," The MITRE Corporation, MTR-70l3,
February 1969.
2.
E. L. Keitz, "Application of Structured Value Analysis in
Determining the Value vs. Performance of Air Quality
Monitoring Networks," The MITRE Corporation, M70-27,
April 1970.
3.
W. D. Rowe, "The Application of Structured Value Analysis to
Models Using Value Judgments as a Data Source," The MITRE
Corporation, M70-l4, March 1970.
276
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D-12
C. A. Zraket
C. C. Grandy
T. F. Rogers
E. Chelimsky
D-20
W. F. Mason
R. S. Greeley
D-21
J. J. O'Neill
D-22
J. Garrison (3)
J. Golden
E. L. Keitz (5)
R. P. Ouellette
R. Pikul
S. Poh
W. D. Rowe
J. Stone (5)
J. B. Truett
V. Wenk
K. Yeager
Department File (10)
D-23
J. K.
W. E.
J. C.
W. L.
C. G.
Dukowicz (5)
Fraize (5)
LaFrance
McCabe
Swanson
DISTRIBUTION LIST
D-24
R. H. Winslow
D-25
W. S. L. Moy
A-01
c:E. Duke
Bedford Library
Washington Library
Division of Advanced Automotive
Power Systems Development (25)
277
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