STUDY OF THE FUTURE SUPPLY
OF NATURAL GAS FOR
ELECTRICAL UTILITIES
Hittman Associates, Inc.
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STUDY OF THE FUTURE SUPPLY
OF NATURAL GAS FOR
ELECTRICAL UTILITIES
HIT-500
February, 1972
Prepared Under
Contract No. EHSD-71-43
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Programs
HITTMAN ASSOCIATES, INC.
COLUMBIA, MARYLAND
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ii
LEGAL NOTICE
This report was prepared as an account of Government sponsored work.
Neither the United States, nor the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Programs (EPA-OAP), nor any person acting on behalf of EPA-OAP:
A. Makes any warranty or representation, expressed or implied with
respect to the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information con-
tained in this report, or that the use of any information, apparatus, method,
or process disclosed in this report may not infringe privately owned rights;
or
B. Assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of, or for damages
resulting from the use of any information, apparatus, method, or process
disclosed in this report.
As used in the above, "person acting on behalf of EP A-OAP" includes
any employee or contractor of EPA-OAP, or employee of such contractor, to
the extent that such employee or contractor of EP A -OAP, or employee of such
contractor prepares, disseminates, or provides access to any information
pursuant to his employment or contract with EP A -OAP '. or his employment
with such contractor.
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iii
T ABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LEGAL NOTICE. . . . .
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T ABLE OF CONTENTS.
LIST OF TABLES.
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LIST OF FIGURES. . .
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I.
INTRODUCTION.
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1-1
II.
SUMMARY. . . .
. . . . . . . . . .
........
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II-l
III.
IV.
NATURAL GAS RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION.
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III - 1
GAS ALTERNATIVES. . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
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IV-1
A.
Natural Gas Imports. .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . . .
IV-l
B.
Liquefied Natural Gas. .
. . . . .
............
IV-l
C.
Gasified Oil Shale and Gas. . . . .
. . . . .
......
IV-4
IV-5
D.
Gasified Petroleum. . . . . .
........
. . . . . .
E.
Increased Productivity of Existing Wells
. . . . . . . .
IV-5
V.
GAS CONSUMPTION AND FLOW PATTERNS. . . . . . . . .
V-I
VI.
PREDICTION OF GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND
. . . . . . .
. VI -1
VII.
COST IMPLICATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
VII -1
VIII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOlVIMENDA TIONS . . .
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. .. VIII-1
IX.
REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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IX-l
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Table
No.
II-1
II- 2
III - 1
III - 2
III - 3
III - 4
III - 5
IV-1
IV-2
IV-3
V-1
V-2
V-3
iv
LIST OF TABLES
Title
Page
Total and Incremental Increase in Natural Gas
Available for URe in Electric Power Generation
(Trillion Btu/yr) .
II-2
Incremental Increase in Demand for Natural
Gas Due to New Power Plants (Trillion
Btu/yr) (Refs. 11, 12, 13)
II-3
General Breakout of Potential U. S. Gas
III - 3
Estimated Potential U. S. Gas Supply
III - 3
U. S. Proven Reserves and Production of Natural
Gas (Trillion CF)
III - 4
Canadian Proven Reserves, Production and
E:xports of Natural Gas (Trillion CF)
Natural Gas Chemical Composition (Ref. 4)
III - 4
III - 5
Liquid Natural Gas Import Volume (Ref. 5)
IV-2
Availability of Natural Gas for LNG Production
and Exportation (Ref. 6)
IV-3
Large Scale LNG Plants Under Construction
(Ref. 5, 6)
IV-4
1969 Gas Flow and Consumption Pattern (Ref. 9)
V-4
Salient Statistics of Natural Gas in the U. S. (Ref. 9)
V-5
Total and Electrical Power Consumption of
Natural Gas (Millions of Therms)
(Refs. 11, 12, 13)
V-7
VI-1 Legend for Figure VI-1 (Per Ref. 14) VI-3
VII-1 Average Wellhead Price and Electric Utility VII - 2
"As-Burned Price" (cents/106 Btu) (Ref. 11,12)
VII- 2 "As-Burned" Price by Census Region 1968 VII - 2
VII - 3 Estimated LNG Prices (cents/103 CF) (Ref. 17) VII - 4
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Figure
No.
III - 1
V-1a
V-1b
V-2
VI-1
VI-2
VI-3
VI-4
LIST OF FIGURES
Title
Worldwide Known Reserves (Ref. 2)
Flow Patterns for Natural Gas by Regions - 1965
(Billion Cubic Feet) (Ref. 8)
Flow Patterns for Natural Gas by Regions - 1960
(Billion Cubic Feet) (Ref. 8)
Net Gas Imports from Canada and Mexico (Ref. 10)
Forecasts of U. S. Natural Gas Requirements (Ref. 14)
Yearly National Gas Production Forecast
Projected Energy Requirements for Electrical Power
Generation
Total Gas Reserve Without Significant Imports
(Adapted from Ref. 1)
v
Page
III - 1
V-2
V-3
V-6
VI-2
VI-5
VI-6
VI-7
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1-1
1.
INTRODUCTION
The availability of natural gas as, a low sulfur fuel for electrical production
was examined in light of historical usage and availability. The goal was to
ascertain not only near term but extended demands. Projections were made
out through the year 2000. Beyond this time period, there are so many uncer-
tainties that a projection of either demand or supply is not meaningful. Alter-
nate gas sources were also evaluated. Most authorities are in agreement that
natural gas cannot continue as the only supply. As a result, such alternates
as coal and oil shale gasification, Liquid Natural Gas (LNG), and well stimula-
tion were evaluated in light of our needs.
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II. SUMMARY
II-1
Natural gas has progressed from a useless gas a few decades ago to a
major fuel source today. This growth has been reasonably trouble free up
until now. Gas is now. however. approaching a critical period. . The value
of reserve to production ratio has continued to drop for the past several years
reaching 13.3 in 1969. It is felt that a value below 10 is an indicator of a
troubled industry (Ref. 1). As one can see. gas is dangerously close to this
figure. The reason most experts give for this business posture is the unfavor-
able pricing structure that has existed for the past several years. As a result.
the new drillings have declined for lack of money. Naturally. the reduced
drillings resulted in a lower number of "finds". This coupled with an ever
increasing consumption rate (20.7 trillion cubic feet in 1969) has resulted in
a depressed reserve to production ratio. It does not mean we are running out
of gas. but rather an unwillingness by the gas industry to invest in drilling.
It is projected that the Federal Power Commission (FPC) will increase pric-
ing over the next few years in order to stimulate the industry. This is felt
by most to be too little too late. Accordingly. gas shortages are projected
to continue through 1975 until the industry regains the momentum lost over
the past several years. These shortages will most effect the electrical utili-
ties. Most states have agreements with the gas utilities which set first
priority to residential customers. The net result will be a limited expansion
of natural gas consumption for electrical production. Realizing this potential
gas shortage. some electric utilities in Texas and Louisiana with plants going
on line after 1971 have designed new fossil fuel plants with a dual fuel capa-
bility (i. e.. gas or oil).
An interesting way to look at the projected growth rate for the utilities
is to look at only the incremental supply and demand of natural gas. The pro-
jected availability is shown in Table II-1 with corresponding demand shown in
Table II-2. A cross comparison points out the projected shortage. To date.
we. have discussed the near term future of the gas industry. But what about
the long term forecast? Most experts feel that the growth rate will continue
with the yearly consumption approaching 40.000 trillion Btu's by the year 2000.
. This is nearly double what it is today. To meet this demand. alternates from
pipeline natural gas must be found. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be the
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TABLE II-I. TOTAL AND INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN NATURAL GAS
AVAILABLE FOR USE IN ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION (Trillion BTU/yr.)
(Refs. 11,12, 13)
CENSUS REGION 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
N ew England 1. 71 8.76 (1) 8.76(1) 8. 83 (1) 12.04 (2) 12. 18 (2)
Middle Atlantic 7.42 14. 54 (1) 14.82(1) 15.00 (1) 39. 36 (2) 40. 42 (2)
South Atlantic 12. 59 13.15 13.75 14.74 46.98 (2) 48.98 (2)
EAST COAST TOTAL 21. 72 36.45 37.33 38.57 98.38 101. 58
East N. Central 9.46 9.82 10.25 10.75 10.94 12.06
West N. Central 18.93 19.22 20.09 20. 32 20.94 20.06
East S. Central 7.45 5.93 8. 15 7.78 7.08 8.42
West S. Central 77.92 81. 16 84.28 86.20 90.81 89.19
Mountain 8.33 12. 19 9.01 9.84 12. 18 12.82
INTERIOR TOTAL 122.09 128.32 131. 78 134.89 141. 95 142.55
Pacific 32.63 73.36 30.90 25.27 158.99 (3) 145. 61 (3)
WEST COAST TOTAL 32.63 73. 36 30.90 25.27 158.99 145.61
UNITED STATES TOTAL 176.44 238. 13 200.01 198.63 399.32 389.74
( 1) Assumes importation of 1. 1 billion cu. ft. of LNG per month. This proposal currently before the FPC. ......
(2) Assumes importation of 1. 5 billion cu. ft. of LNG per day. This proposal currently before the FPC. ......
I
(3) Assumes operation of 1 billion cu. ft. per day pipeline from Alaska. t\J
UNITED STATES TOTAL 3,920.00 4,158.00 4,358.00 4,556.00 4,955.00 5,245.00
CONSUMPTION
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TABLE II-2. INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR
NATURAL GAS DUE TO NEW POWER PLANTS
(Trillion Btu/yr) (Refs. 11,12,13)
REGION 1971 1972 1973 1974
East Coast 73 34 22 65
Interior 259 209 172 160
West Coast 32 31 34 22
UNITED ST ATES TOTAL 364 274 228 247
1975
113
143
II-3
1976
24
30
226
30
280
immediate answer. It will allow significant importation from both the Far East
and South America. It has been estimated that as much as 10 percent of our
annual consumption in 1980 will be LNG. But this is not the final answer if gas
is to survive beyond the year 2030. The reserves are not great enough to main-
tain the high consumption level. Oil shale or coal gasification must be used to
augment the gas supply. Coal alone could increase the potential gas reserve
by over a factor of 10. This would yield greater than a hundred-year supply.
In general, therefore, one can say that gas will be around for some time to come.
The electrical utilities, however, will not increase gas consumption at the same
growth rate as the gas industry. In fact, it is projected that although the yearly
consumption will rise, the percentage will decrease. The use of alternate gas
supplies will force the gas prices upward making it economically unattractive
. for the large, base loaded utility plants.
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III - 1
III. NATURAL GAS RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION
The United States is the largest consumer of natural gas in the world and
will be for the foreseeable future. To maintain this high consumption level
requires a reasonable knowledge of near term consumption-demand patterns
and an estimate of potential untapped reserves. This type of information comes
from many sources including the trade associations. oil companies. and govern-
ment agencies. Unfortunately. they do not all agree. This must be expected
since these parameters are affected by a large number of factors. As a result.
the basic inputs must be critically evaluated and the basic assumptions reviewed.
The reserves of natural gas is the one area where most sources seem to
agree. They all conclude that there is a .large amount of gas remaining under-
ground; the majority of which still remains undiscovered. Before getting
into a discussion of the United States reserves. it is worthwhile to briefly re:-
view the worldwide -picture. Figure III -1 shows the approximate distribution
of known world reserves.
500
(Trillion Cu. Ft.)
500 ,
i
400 -J
300 ~
200
100
o
205
Far Africa
East
U. S. Europe Mid- Other
East
Figure III-I.
Worldwide Known Reserves (Ref. 2)
This total known reserve represents approximately a 50 year supply at the
current rate. This of course will not be the case, but it does give one an
appreciation fO'r the quantities involved. Canada, although not called out
separately, has approximately 50 trillion cubic feet of reserves. This ranks
them sixth in world reserves. Our southern neighbor Mexico is not as fortunate.
Mexico's supply is only rated at a few trillion cubic feet. The term "known"
reserve implies that the gas fields have been found and an estimate made of the
total under ground reservior.
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III - 2
The United States reserves have been estimated in significantly more
detail than simply reporting known reserves. Possible and speculative sources
have also been estimated. The most notable source for this information is the
Potential Gas Committee (PGC) which puts out a biennial report. The latest
report, issued December 31, 1970 (Ref. 3) estimates that there are 257 trillion
cubic feet in "probable" reserves; 387 trillion cubic feet in areas of established
production classified as "possible" and 534 trillion cubic feet in undrilled,
speculative regions. A breakout of these categories is shown in Table III-lo
These figures are an update from its 1968 estimate. A comparison of the two
estimates is shown in Table III-2. As one can see, the estimates agree rather
closely. It should be noted that the above reserves of 1178 trillion cubic feet
is an addition to the 290 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves.
We have restricted our discussion to date to the entire picture of gas
reserves. However, the parameter which is most important to the gas industry
is the ratio of proven reserves to yearly production level. The higher the value,
the more stable the industry becomes. It iS,in a sense, a margin of safety. A
review of the United States values for the last eight to nine yars, Table 1II-3,
reveals a dangerous trend. The reserve to production ratio has fallen from 20
in 1962 to 13.3 in 1969. The Committee on Public Works of the U. S. Senate
(Ref. 1) indicates that a safe minimum value is 10.0 which is being approached
rather quickly. Canada's reserve to production ratio, on the other hand, is
much higher. Table 1II-4 shows the past history with the 1969 level being at
33.4. Although they are in a favorable position with respect to the reserve!
production ratio, their ultimate production rate is limited. A theorical maxi-
mum production rate of 5.2 trillion cubic feet can be achieved holding a ratio
value of 10. This is approximately 25 percent of the current United States
production rate.
We have discussed the gas demand and production. Now let us direct our
attention to the chemical form of this fuel. Natural gas is principally a methane
base fuel with scattered amounts of ethane, propane, nitrogen, and a number
of other gas forms. A percentage breakdown of these gases is shown in Table
III-5 for gas wells in both Oklahoma and Texas (Ref. 4). It should be noted
that no value for the hydrogen sulfide content has been listed for the "well head"
ar naturally occurring gas. Unfortunately, the technique used for gathering
samples eliminated the hydrogen sulfide from the sample prior to analysis.
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III - 3
T ABLE III-I. GENERAL BREAKOUT OF POTENTIAL U. S. GAS':'
(Trillion cu. ft. at 14.73 psia and 600F
as of Dec. 31, 1970)
-"""--
Supply area Probable Possible Speculative Total
LOWER 48
Onshore (hole depth): States
0-15,000 ft. 141 166 144 451
15,001-30,000 ft. 38 61 63 162
Total 179 227 207 613
Offshore (water depth):
0-600 ft. 39 89 72 200
601-1,500 ft. T 10 28 38
Total 39 99 100 238
Total- Lower 48 218 326 307 851
ALASKA
Total - Alaska 39 61 227 327
Grand total 257 387 534 I, 178
(lower 48 and Alaska)
':
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III - 4
TABLE 111-3. U. S. PROVEN RESERVES AND
PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS (Trillion CF)
(Ref. 12)
Reserve/
Year Reserve Production Production Ratio
1962 272.3 13.64 20.0
1963 276.2 14.55 19.0
1964 281. 3 15.35 18.3
1965 286. 5 16.25 17.6
1966 289.3 17.49 16.5
1967 292.9 18. 38 15.9
1968 287.3 19. 37 14.8
1969 275. 1 20.72 13.3
TABLE 1II-4. CANADIAN PROVEN RESERVES, PRODUCTION
AND EXPORTS OF NATURAL GAS (Trillion CF)
(Ref. 19)
Reserve/
Year Reserve Production Net Export Production Ratio
1964 39. 32
1965 40.35
1966 43.45 1. 125 O. 387 38.6
1967 45.68 1. 216 0.443 37.6
1968 47.67 1. 395 0.523 34.2
1969 51. 95 1.556 0.645 33.4
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III - 5
TABLE 1II-5. NATURAL GAS CHEMICAL COMPOSITION (Ref. 4)
(in percent)
Oklahoma well-head gas composition from 44 samples.
Texas pipeline gas composition from 11 samples.
Well-head Pipeline
Average 1: S. D. Average 1: S. D.
Methane 83.32 1: 8.37 75.5 1: 6.6
Ethane 5.45 1: 3.00 6.6 1: 0.7
Propane 2.71 1: 1. 63 3.2 1: 1.1
N-Butane 0.76 :f: 0.40 O. 92 1: 0.45
Isobutane 0.34 1: 0.22 O. 351: O. 17
N-Pentane 0.29 1: 0.25 O. 31 1: O. 13
Isopentane 0.13 1: O. 10 O. 15 1: 0.094
Cyclopentane O. 1 :t 0.06 0.05 1: 0.034
Hexane plus 0.27 :I: O. 19 0.22 1: 0.09
Nitrogen 3.96 :I: 5.40 11. 7 1: 4.9
Oxygen 0.10 :!: O. 3 0.06 1: 0.08
Argon 0.00 0.06:t 0.03
Hydrogen 0.07 :I: 0.03 0.02 1: 0.03
Hydrogen Sulfide 0 .0
Carbon Dioxide 0.43 :I: 0.74 O. 31:1: 0.22
Helium 0.093:1: 0.07 O. 58 1: 0.34
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<-
I
III-6
The sample gas was tapped from the well and bubbled into a water filled vial.
The gas displaced the water thereby yielding a known gas sample volume inside
the vial. This provides an excellent monitor of sample volume, but also largely
eliminated the hydrogen sulfide. Hydrogen sulfide being readily soluble in
water was simply dissolved in the water. Although the concentration is unknown.
some observations can be made. Sulfur concentration can vary widely from
well to well but is generally quite low in production wells. The low concentra-
tions that are present are removed prior to pipeline transportation. This is
done to reduce pipeline corrosion caused by the sulfur compounds. The fact
that sulfur concentrations can be high is evident by the existence of "sour"
wells. These wells have such a high sulfur content that the sulfur is processed
commercially. Therefore. a blanket statement that all wells produce gas with
negligible sulfur content cannot be made.
-.,.
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IV-1
IV.
GAS ALTERNATIVES
The consumption of natural gas has increased within the United
States with each passing year. This increase is projected to continue for the
immediate future. The resulting high consumption rate will put an ever in-
creasing burden on the gas reserves. Up to now, the discovery of new gas fields
has kept pace with the demand. This cannot continue indefinitely. As a result,
new sources must be found.
A. Natural Gas Imports
I -
Imports from neighboring Canada and Mexico have played an ever increas-
ing role in the United States supply. As of 1970, the combined total represented
approximately three percent of the overall United States consumption. Mexico
has maintained a near constant level while Canada's level has increased signi-
ficantly. A simple linear extrapolation would lead one to believe that their
input would be an. ever increasing percentage of our consumption. These in-
creases, however, have merely kept pace with our growing demand. The per-
centage has stayed nearly constant. As a result, gas import from Canada or
Mexico cannot be considered as a significant producer of future demands.
Another source of gas import is the Alaskan fields. They are currently
in the early stages of development with production speculated to begin by 1975.
The amount of gas piped to the mainland will depend to a large extent on the
future pricing structure. The additional pipeline costs are anticipated to be in
the range of LNG. As a result, significant import will only occur with high
gas prices.
B.
Liquefied Natural Gas
Under normal Standard Temperature Pressure (STP) conditions, natural
gas.is a rather low density fuel. The gaseous form makes it uneconomical
for transport by any other means than pipeline. This mode, however, is
obviously limited to North America imports. The advent of modern cryogenic
t~chnology has made it possible to liquify and transport natural gas economi-
cally. Cryogenic Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) tankers are being built for this
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IV-2
purpose. Liquid natural gas tanker shipments will become a significant gas
source since much of the world's proven gas reserves (37 percent) is located
in the developing countries. Liquid natural gas is the only method presently
available to export these vast reserves.
The major factors in the development of a large LNG trade are techno-
logical ones; further advances are needed to reduce liquefaction and transpor-
taion costs (by about 20 percent). The present nonavailability of cryogenic
tankers is the most serious constraint upon the use of LNG.
Several companies have requested FPC permission (Ref. 5) to import
LNG and others are expected to follow suit. These companies and the expected
(approximate) quantities of imports are presented in Table IV-I. Distrigas is
expected to start shipping as soon as FPC approval is obtained. El Paso is
expected to start shipping in late 1974. This study assumed Distrigas would
be shipping in 1972 and El Paso in 1975. Half of Distrigas' LNG was assumed
to go into New England and the other half into Middle Atlantic regions. This
is based on LNG docking facilities availability at Everett, Massachusetts, and
Staten Island. New York. The LNG from the El Paso agreement was assumed
to have an East Coast distribution pattern similar to that for 1975 natural gas.
TABLE IV-I. LIQUID NATURAL GAS
IMPORT VOLUME (Ref. 5)
Gas Utility
Quantity of Import
9
13.2 x 10 CF/yr
9
155 x 10 CF /yr
9
548 x 10 CF /yr
Exporting Country
Distrigas
Esso LNG
El Paso
Philadelphia Gas
Algeria
V enez uela
Algeria
Venezuela
The importation of LNG would come from three major geographic
regions: South America, Africa, and the Middle East. All of these regions
are rich in natural gas supplies. Table IV - 2 (Ref. 6) presents data on the
availability of natural gas from each of these regions.
Although LNG technology and usage is in its infancy, there presently
exist several rather large plants. Their approximate capacities are given in
Table IV-3. Even though most of these plants are in construction, they will
be completed by 1972 or 1973.
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TABLE IV-2. AVAILABILITY OF NATURAL GAS FOR
LNG PRODUCTION AND EXPORTATION (Ref. 6)
1970 1975 1980
Possible Possible Possible
P/C1 Export4 P/C1 Export P/C1 Export
Country 109 CF Iyr 109CF/yr 109 CF Ivr
South America
Bolivia 30. 1 24 22.3 376 13.8 294
Brazil 10.8 36 8.5 39 7.3 42
Chile 9.6 244 8.9 280 8.7 323
Columbia 2.6 66 2.0 59 1.8 64
Peru 21. 3 61 17. 6 66 14.9 73
Venezuela 2.4 498 1.6 296 1.4 294
Africa
Algeria 12.0 220 12.0 336 12.2 493
Libya 44.0 628 25.5 851 22.0 997
Nigeria 20.3 385 19.4 588 20. 1 861
Middle East
Abu Dhabi (2) 62 (2) 75 (2) 92
Bahrain (2) 11 (2) 14 (2) 17
Iran 1.9 117 1.9 350 1.9 500
Iraq 3.5 169 3. 2 197 2.9 221
Kuwait 3.5 422 3.2 488 2.9 555
Neutral Zone (3) 32 (3) 38 (3) 47
Oman (3) 10 (3) 12 (3) 15
Qa tar (3) 52 (3) 63 (3) 77
Saudi Arabia 3.5 243 3"2 243 2.9 337
1production divided by Consumption (internal)
2Minimal internal consumption - misleadingly high pic ratio H
3No reliable information <:
I
4 Amount of natural gas (production minus consumption) available for liquefication and export w
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IV-4
The future of a relatively large international trade in LNG seems
assured by projects currently operating or under construction, but fulfillment
of the promise of a truly enormous market is dependent upon many factors such
as the substantial reduction in transportation costs. Another very important
factor to keep in mind is the extent of offshore gas reserves. If gas from large
offshore fields becomes available to either the United States or Japan, LNG
importation will decline just as it did in the U. K. with the development of North
Sea gas.
Port Arzew, Algeria
TABLE IV-3. LARGE SCALE LNG PLANTS
UNDER CONSTRUCTION (Ref. 5,6)
Capacity (109 CF /yr)
402
Skikda, Algeria
Marsa el Brega, Libya
Brunai, Malaysia
Pozo Rica, Mexico
Maricaibo, Venezuela
160>:<
160>:<
255
220
100
C.
Gasified Oil Shale and Gas
The oil shale deposits of the western United States represents a potential
source of natural gas. Basic work in this field has shown that this method of
gas recovery is technically feasible. However, there is a long way to go be-
fore we can say that it is also economically competitive. The fact that a large
effort in both time and money is necessary to bring this recovery approach on
a par with the alternate approaches makes it a doubtful source of gas for at
least the next 20 years. Beyond this time, it is difficult to say. Potentially,
there are 6000 trillion cubic feet of gas available by this recovery scheme.
This supply can hardly be ignored indefinitely.
Coal gasification is another alternative toward overcoming the Urn ited
gas supply. The process has been proven feasible on a laboratory basis.
*Ultimate capacity: 320 x 10~ CF /yr
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IV-5
The second step, which is to build and operate a synthetic gas pilot plant,
has been completed and is in operation just outside Chicago (Ref. 7). It utilizes
a conversion process known as "Hygas" which produces 250 million cubic feet
per day of synthetic gas from 75 tons of coal. This concept of altering coal
into gas accomplishes two goals. It will greatly increase the effeCtive gas
reserves and will eliminate the S02 and particulate pollution problem asso-
ciated with the direct burning of coal. The 1967 estimated total reserves of
997,000 million tons of coal and lignite (Ref. 1) represents an order of magni-
tude increase in potential gas reserves. As a result, coal represents the
most significant source of natural gas. Its use as a major fuel supply, however,
is many years away. The plants today are small by production standards.
Also, the technology has not reached the point of being economically feasible.
It is felt that, given sufficient Federal funds, it would not be until the early
1980s that large, c.ommercially feasible plants would be brought into production.
D.
Gasified Petroleum
Oil gasification is quite similar to coal gasification. It is a process
which converts available thermal energy of oil into a gas form. The process
has the inherent advantage of yielding a cleaner fuel. tlnlike coal, however,
oil is in unusually short supply. Its reserve is similar to the natural gas
supply. As a result, this gasification process cannot be expected to greatly
increase the gas supply unless the use of oil in its natural form is sharply cur-
. tailed. It can, however, be used as an emergency gas supply for short
periods of time.
E.
Increased Productivity of Existing Wells
1.
Nuclear Stimulated Gas (Gas Buggy)
The gas reserves within the United States range in size and containing
structure. Not all of the gas is in easy-to-get-at pools. A segment of this
supply is located. in low-permeability geological formations. Wells drilled
into this type of ground produce at very low rates. In many cases, this is
b~low an attractive economic level. One approach to release this entrapped
gas is to fracture the underground formation by means of a nuclear detonation.
-------
IV-6
An experiment known as "Project Rulison" has recently been conducted to
determine feasibility of this approach. There was little doubt that an explo-
sion would increase yield, but how much and how "clean" the gas would be
were two questions only a test could answer. Preliminary results indicate
that the yield is up by a factor of 10. The recovery factor may be as high as
50 to 80 percent of the original trapped gas, with induced radioactivity also
within predicted limits. If this stimulation does prove feasible, commercial
extraction from this field will begin. Two yearly detonations for the next
50 years will yield 0.12 trillion cubic feet yearly (Ref. 1). Under reasonable
technical assumptions, then, 20 detonations per year would be required to
yield 2.54 trillion cubic feet. This is approximately 10 percent of the projected
1973 demand. Whether or not this is economically feasible remains to be seen.
2.
Advances in Conventional Technology
The technology of gas extraction continues to build with each passing
year. Today's methods have created production wells from diggings which
would have proven economically infeasible several years ago. This trend is
expected to continue into the future. As a result, "dead" wells will be reclaimed
for production. The gas yield, as a result, however, is not expected to signifi-
cantly affect gas production levels. It will only affect a small fraction of the
total field reserve. Methods which fall into this category are water injection
and gas simulation. Both of these processes further the recovery rate from
the existing fields.
-------
V-I
V. GAS CONSUMPTION AND FLOW PATTERNS
The flow of natural gas within the continental Unit~d States is primarily
by pipeline. It is mainly produced in the Texas-Oklahoma- Louisiana region
and piped to the various consuming regions. The East Coast. as one would
expect. is the main consumer. If we were to look at a pipeline map of the
United States. we would see two main traffic lanes. one lane going to each
coast starting from the gas fields. This flow pattern can be very vividly seen
in Figure V-I. It shows the natural gas flow pattern for both 1960 and 1965.
This semipictorial approach dramatically shows Texas as the hub for natural
gas feeding the rest of the nation. Comparing the changes between 1960 and
1965 shows that the pattern remained reasonably constant with an overall con-
sumption increase of 28 percent. This trend continued through the sixties. By
1969. the total consumption had risen to 20.9 trillion cubic feet. This is a
34 percent increase from 1965. A breakdown by region for 1969 is given in
Table V-I. The receipt is the total gross gas volume entering a region. A
portion of this amount is simply shipped to another region. This quantity is
known as "deliverable. II The remaining gas is divided into three categories:
consumption. storage.. and transmission loss. The latter refers to the gas
expended to power the gas-driven pumps along the pipeline and other auxiliary
equipment. This amounts to about 1. 6 percent of the total gas flow.
Another presentation approach is simply to summarize the national
. supply and disposition of natural gas. These data are shown in Table V-2.
for 1965 through 1969. Several interesting trends are evident. First is the
history of lost fuel. Until 1967. fuel losses were on the rise along with con-
sumption. The trend changed in 1967 and has continued. We have gradually
increased through the following years. The second area is in the import-
export field. Net imports have gradually increased through the years. The
level reached 3.3 percent of total supply by 1969. These imports came from
two sources. Canada and Mexico. A history of our dealings with these two
countries is shown in Figure V-2. Until 1958. the United States was an ex-
porter of gas. The tide reversed in 1958 and since then we have continued
to import at an ever-increasing rate. This increase is totally due to in-
creased imports from Canada. Our dealings with Mexico have been main-
tained at a near constant level of 40 billion cubic feet. This rate is expected
to continue for the foreseeable future.
-------
/ /
/ /
/ /
I /
I I
I I Consump. - Consumption
Net Shpmf. - Net Shipment
Flow Patterns for Natural Gas by Regions - 1965
(Billion Cubic Feet) (Ref. 8)
i 76.2
151.4 I
I ,
" \
\
\
\
,
1.0
-1
Production 461.9
Consump. 688.6
Net. Shpmt.+267.0
Ilia
Production 663.5
Consump. 1957.1
Net Shpmt.+1343.8
lIIc
Alaska
Production
Consump.
7.3
7.3
Hawaii
roduction
onsump.
Figure V -la.
I
I
\7.3
\
\
\
\
\
\
\
57.1
Total Production = 16,038.9
Total Comsumption = 15,590.5
I
,
,3.1
I
,
I
"-
'----.
3. 6
'
-------
\
,96.2
,
,
Total Production = 12,771.0 "
Total Consumption" 12,269. 3
Alaska
~::duction ~~I
[sumP. ~
------------
---
1.8
I
,0.6
,
\
\
\
\
\
Production 34.8
Consump. 815.8"
Net Shpmt. +805.9
Production
Consump.
et Shpmt.
"-
----,
i
I
!---
IlIa
42.1
"-
.......
IIa
IIIb
~
IIIc
Hawaii
Iproduction
Consump.
I
\
\ I
\ /;"
\ /
I ,,-
, /
/ /
/ /
/ //
//
//
Consump. - Consumption
Net Shpmt. - Net Shipment
<:
I
""
Figure V4b.
Flow Patterns for Natural Gas by Regions - 1960
(Billion Cubic Feet) (Ref. 8)
-------
TABLE V-I. 1969 GAS FLOW AND CONSUMPTION PATTERN (Ref. 9)
106 CF Change
Net in Transmission
Location Production Receipts Deliveries Deliveries Stora~e Loss Consumption
New England 414,403 183,779 230,624 -253 4,653 226,224
Middle Atlantic 83,995 3,760,893 2,010,701 1,750,192 7,451 72,179 1,754,557
East North Central 89, 927 7,975,170 4,221,283 3,753,887 45,078 41,418 3,757,318
West North Central 923,858 6,768, 168 5,773,028 995,140 -1,227 12, 614 1,907,611
South Atlantic 235,633 6,662,611 5,470,624 1, 191,987 -854 24,011 1,404,463
East South Central 212,775 16,804,150 15,861,901 942,839 2,997 32,672 1,119,945
West South Central 16,774,000 5,852,200 15,298,773 -9,446,573 35,413 68,312 7,223,699
Mountain 1,649,502 3,233,009 3,662,267 -429,258 14, 195 31, 223 1,174,826
Pacific 728,553 2,291,111 604,302 1,686,809 16, 700 444,505 2,354, 157
Total 20,698,240 53,762,305 53,086,650 675,647 119,500 331,587 20,922,800
<
I
~
-------
TABLE V-2. SALIENT STATISTICS OF NATURAL GAS IN THE U. S. (Ref. 9)
(106 CF)
1965 1966 1967 1968 1969
Supply
Marketed production 16,039,753 17,206,628 18, 171,325 19,322,400 20,698,240
Withdrawn from
storage 959,865 1,141,614 1,132,534 1,329,536 1,379,488
Imports 456,394 479,780 564,226 651,885 726,951
Total 17,456,012 18,828,022 19,868,085 21,303,821 22,804,679
Disposition
Consumption 16,033,189 17,191,711 18, 172,894 19,459,939 20,922,800
Exports 26,132 24,639 81,674 93,745 51,304
Stored 1,07.7,980 1,210,469 1,317,363 1,425,075 1,498,988
Loss 318,711 401,203 296,214 325,062 331,587
Total 17,456,012 18,828,022 19,868,085 21,303,821 22,804,679
Cost
3 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.7
Cents per 10 CF 16.4
<:
I
<:11
-------
600
500
~
u
CJ)
~ 400
~
......
t..
o
a-
S
I-t
U)
(1j
CJ
300
......
(1j
$-0
::s
1ij
Z
aJ 200
Z
100
o
V-6
645 in 1969
Canada
y
Mexico
1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970
Year
Figure V -2. Net Gas Imports from Canada and Mexico (Ref. 10)
-------
V-7
We have discussed the distribution of natural gas within the United States.
Now let us concentrate our attention to the consumption levels for electrical
power production. Table V-3 presents regional data from 1966 through 1968.
In addition, total gas consumption by region is also listed to give one some
idea of the gas fraction used for electrical power.
TABLE V-3. TOTAL AND ELECTRICAL POWER
CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS (Millions of Therms)
(Refs. 11, 12, 13)
1966 1967 1968
New England Total 1, 800 1,983 2,087
Power 90.0 92.3 101. 2
Middle Atlantic
Total 13,596 14,288 15,057
Power 963.5 1,109.7 1,218.5
East North Central
Total 29,709 31, 447 33,449
Power 781. 4 857.7 943.1
West North Central
Total 13,970 14,784 15,559
Power 3,080.1 3,229.4 3,411. 6
South Atlantic
Total 9,532 10,325 11, 158
Power 1,241. 7 1,377.7 1,475.9
East South Central
Total 8, 152 8,343 9,013
Power 874.5 1,156.3 1,230.4
West South Central
Total 25,174 26,225 28,488
Power 11,288.6 12,261. 1 13,144.1
Mountain
Total 7,463 7,382 8,037
Power 1,486.3 1,477.3 1,618. 1
Pacific
Total 19,536 20,106 21,875
Power 6,361. 7 6,153.4 7,019.2
United States
Total 128,932 134,883.. 144, 723 .
Power' 26,177.0 27,715 30,163.0
-------
VI-1
VI.
PREDICTION OF GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND
A review of past gas demand and supply over the history of gas use reveals
an ever increasing profile. Recent years have revealed an alarming trend
toward a reduced reserve-to-production ratio. Continuation of this trend could
seriously impair the industry. As a result, projection of these parameters
is all important. Unfortunately, there is a variation of opinion within the field.
An example of this variation is clearly shown in Figure VI-l. It is noteworthy
that the early predictions (prior to 1967) predict a much lower rate of increased
consumption than has been observed to date. Another form of these
data is shown in Figure VI -2 in the form of projected production
rate. It can be seen that the predictions differ widely. This is due in part to
varying impact assumptions to meet the demand. It is our feeling that the actual
growth rate will follow some medium profile. The consumption pattern obviously
is subjected to the alternate fuel forms. However, the basic cleanliness of gas
will maintain an ever increasing demand.
To this point we have discussed overall gas consumption. Electrical utility
requirements are of specific interest. It is generally recognized that utilities
are the last to get their gas quota. As a result, gas shortages would first be
reflected in these requirements. The United States Senate Committee on Public
Works has projected this requirement in Figure VI-3. It indicates an ever-
decreasing percentage of gas being available foruse in electrical production. In
addition to this overall prediction, regional data through 1976 are shown in Table II -1.
Our ability to supply these high consumption patterns fall into the category
'of highly questionable. A look at our national reserves, if this were the case,
is shown in Figure VI-4. One can see that our supply will not last long: The
answer to this dilemma is to either produce synthetic gas or to import heayily.
The latter option will almost surely take the form of LNG importation. The
potential of this approach is limited mainly by the tanker fleet necessary to
carry these vast amounts of gas.
-------
45,000
40,000
-
en
;:J
~
p:j
i::
.S 35,000
.......
.......
.....
H
~
"d
i::
cd
S 30, 000
(l)
Q
en
cd
o
~
, cd
~
a 25,000
~
~
cd
i::
o
.....
......
cd ,
Z 20, 000
15,000'
Figure VI -:-1.
F air extension of
actual value curve
based on most recent d
forecasts (1968) ~ /
/
/
/
I 0
/ 0
I
/
I
Actual
values
~
o
Q
~
o
19'60
1970
o
@
(t
~
o
0' /
/'0,
/
~
o
1980
Year
/
o
o
o
/
/
1990
VI-2
/
./
/
o
/
/
o
/
~
. / F air curve of
~ forecasts prior
/- to 1967
/
See Table VI - 1 for Legend
2000
Forecasts of U. S. Natural Gas Requirements (Ref., 14)
-------
VI-3
TABLE VI-l, LEGEND FOR FIGURE VI-1
(Per Ref. 14)
Sym bol
Reference
<>
United States Petroleum Through 1980
United States Department of Interior
Office of Oil and Gas, July 1968
~
Patterns of Energy Consumption in the U. S.
William A. Vogely, Division of Economic Analysis
Bureau of Mines, U. S. Department of the Interior
1962
o
Report of the National Fuels and Energy Study Group
on Assessment of Available Information on Energy
in the United States, Committee on Interior and
Insular Affairs, United States Senate, September 1962
o
Gas Utility and Pipeline Industry Projections
1968-1972, 1975, 1980 and 1985
Department of Statistics
American Gas Association
o
Future Natural Gas Requirements of the United States
Future Requirements Agency, Denver Research Inst.
University of Denver, Vol. 2, June 1967
(Under the auspices of the Gas Industry Committee)
o
Competition and Growth in American Energy Markets,
1947 - 1985, Texas Eastern Transmission Corporation,
1968 .
o
Energy in the United States, 1960-1985
Michael C. Cook
Sartorius & Co., September 1967
6
Resources in America's Future
Landsberg, Fischman, and Fisher
Resources for the Future, Inc.
Johns Hopkins Press, 1963
o
An Energy Model for the United States Featuring Energy.
Balances for the Years 1947 to 1965 and Projections
and Forecasts to the years 1980 and 2000
Bureau of Mines, IC 8334, July 1968
U. S. Department of the Interior
-------
Sym bol
D
o
o
VI-4
TABLE VI-I. LEGEND FOR FIGURE VI-1
. (Ref. 14) (Continued)
Reference
Outlook for Energy in the United States
Energy Division
The Chase Manhattan Bank, N. A.
October 1968
Fossil Fuels in .the Future
Office of Operations Analysis and Forecasting
United States Atomic Energy Commission
Milton F. Searl, 1960
Projections of the Consumption of Commodities Producible
on the Public Lands of the United States 1980-2000
Prepared for the Public Land Law Review Commission
Robert R. Nathan Associates, Inc.
Washington, D. C., May 1968
-------
36
340
320
300
....; 280
~
:j
U 260
t::
0
......
~
:;:: 240
~
E-i.
t::
.!3 220
.....
()
:j
"0
0 200
~
~
en
cd 180
t:J
>,
.......
~
cd 160
<1>
~
140
1960
-,
,
\......Gas Industrial Committee Prediction
\
\
~ - - _\
,,~ .~
\ ....
\ ............ ...
\
\
\
~
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
~Ref. 15
~
...
------- , 1
"1
1990
Figure VI -2.
Yearly National Gas Production Forecast
1995
2000
<:
......
I
CJ1
-------
en
-
~
t-t
~
If':)
.-i
o
.-i
en
ro
o
.......
ro
r-.
::s
.....
cU
Z
"d
.(l)
S
::s
en
tj
o
U
1970
130
en
b 110
t-t
~
If':)
.-i
~ 9
;>,
b.O
r-.
(!)
tj
W
""0 70
(!)
S
::s
en
tj
o
U 5
.......
cU
.....
o
t-t
Figure VI - 3.
VI-6
3
~ (Total Utility Energy
" Requirement)
(All Fuels)
"(Ut'l' .
1 lty Energy Requirement
for Natu.ral Gas only)
1980
,
1990
2000
Year
Projected Energy Requirements for Electrical Power Generation
-------
50
45
.......
~
40
::s
U
t::
o
.....
.......
-"'
.....
H
~
35
t::
o
.....
.......
S 30
::s
to
.t::
o
U
~ 25
H
ro
Q)
~
20
15
*Based on Reserves for 1970 of:
Proved - 277 Trillion Cu. Ft.
Recoverable - 1217 Trillion Cu. Ft.
(No. Significant Imports)
1960
1970
1980
Year
~
"
"
'"
'"
'"
'"
,
,
,
"
,
,
,
,
,
/
~
,.
,
,
,
,
\
,
,
,
,
"
"
,
\
"
1990
2000
Figure VI-4.
Total Gas Reserve Without Significant Imports (Adapted from Ref. 1)
1000
90
80
....
t::
Q)
()
s...
Q)
p..
70
b..C
s::
.....
:::
......
ro
E
CD
~
>:,
......
0..
0..
::s
rn
U]
ro
()
60
50
......
ro
+->
o
~
40
30
~
......
I
-oJ
-------
VII-1
VII.
COST IMPLICATIONS
The use, production, and reserve of natural gas is very tightly tied to
the existing and projected prices. The gas industry is like any other business.
Reasonable return must be potentially available before money is invested. To
a large extent, the FPC has controlled the gas price. This control adds
stability to the market but also influences the industry's growth rate. A
price history from 1962 through 1968 is shown in Table VII-1 for both "wellhead"
and "as-burned" bases. As can be seen, the 1962-64 time period had attractive
pricing for the industry. As a result, exploration and new discoveries were
also up. A similar look at the reserve-to-production ratio would show large
values. The poorer economic picture in the succeeding years brought reduced
new drillings. As a result, reserve-to-production ratio has dropped to 13.3
in 1969. This does not indicate a scarcity of gas, but rather money. This
depressed value has caused the FPC to reexamine wellhead pricing. Within
the next few years, an increase in wellhead price is expected. This improve-
ment in price structuring is hoped to, and undoubtedly will, improve the
industry's outlook. However, there is a feeling that this pricing will not
magically solve the forecasted shortage for the next three to seven years
(Ref. 16).
It is also interesting to review the pricing of the "as-burned" price across
the nation. Table VII-2 shows this variation during 1968 for the electrical
utilities. The primary difference is due to transmission charges. . Trans-
mission rates are very complex, but a rule of thumb of 1~ /103 CF /100 miles
of pipeline expense appears to be valid. This adds roughly one cent per
million Btu on the price of gas for 100 miles of transportation. This price
factor is why the continental gas fields can deliver gas more cheaply in the
midwest where it is produced. The Alaska fields, on the other hand, are
reasonably remote and therefore represent a higher-priced source. The esti-
mated transmission charges are expected to be in the 1. 5~/103CF/100 mile
level. .
Liquid natural gas has a different transportation problem. Conventional
pipeline transmission is infeasible for water transportation of any distance.
Gas fields in the Far East and South America, therefore, must convert the
-------
VII - 2
T ABLE VII -1. AVERAGE WELLHEAD PRICE AND
ELECTRIC .UTILITY "AS-BURNED PRICE
cents/106 Btu) (~~f. .11'"- 12)
Year Wellhead II As- Burned"
1962 15.5 26.4
1963 15.8 25.6
1964 15.4 25.4
1965 15. 6 25.1
1966 15.7 25. 1
1967 15.0 24.7
1968 16.4 25. 1
TABLE VII-2. "AS-BURNED" PRICE BY CENSUS REGION 1968
(Ref. 11, 12) Lowest Highe st
Quantity Average Average
B~ned Average Price for Price for
Location (10- CF) Price >:< Any State* Any State *
New England 9,2~6 32.0 31. 6 33.6
Middle Atlantic 123,095 35.8 30.2 37. 1
South Atlantic 197,798 31. 6 27.3 32.9
. East Coast 330,159 33.2 27.3 37. 1
East North Central 105,556 28.0 26.7 47.7
West North Central 346,908 24.5 23.0 28.5
East South Central 112,274 23.9 20.5 24.9
West South Central 1, 304,709 20.1 18.6 25.0
Mountain 157,762 25.9 19.5 36.7
Interior 2,027,209 21. 9 18.6 47.7
Pacific 690.622 30.7 30.6 35.2
West Coast 690,622 30.7 30.6 35.2
Total United States 3,047,990 25. 1 18.6 47.7
*Cents/million Btu
-------
VII - 3
gas into a cryogenic liquid form to allow tanker transportation. The esti-
mated pricing structure for this process is shown in Table VII-3 for LNG
from Venezuela, North Africa, and Nigeria (Ref. 17). These estimates
were made by J. Trollux of Sofragaz, the state-owned Algerian gas company.
The field price of gas was assumed to be 5. 75~/103 CF. Table VII-3 indicates
that the only source of LNG which is even nearly competitive with pipeline gas
prices comes from Venezuela. As implied by the cost breakdown in Table
VII-3 the capital investment involved with LNG plants is quite substantial.
The average capital cost for such LNG plants is estimated at approximately
$850,000 per million cubic feet per day capacity.
The pricing structure for LNG is significantly different from that of
natural gas. Best estimates are that roughly 50 percent of the price would
be due to liquefaction, storage, deliquefaction, and dock facilities; 40 percent
for shipping; and 10 percent for the field price of the gas. Current agree-
ments between Distrigas and Algeria have the price for their LNG ranging
between 68~/103 CF (April to October) and 85~/103 CF (January to February)
(Ref. 5). Southern Natural Gas of Georgia has agreed to an initial base price
of approximately 65~/106 Btu for LNG supplied by an agreement between
EI Paso Natural Gas and Algeria (Ref. 5).
With the expected increase in the wellhead price of natural gas, the
gap between pipeline gas prices and imported LNG will be narrowed. More-
over, the price gap for LNG will soon be secondary to the decreasing avail-
ability of pipeline gas as will that of any additional gas sources such as
. Canadian gas or coal gasification.
-------
VII - 4
Country
TABLE VII-3. ESTIMATED LNG PRICES
(cents /103 CF) (Ref. 17)
300-106 CFD
Capacity
LNG Plant
600-106 CFD
Capacity
LN G Plant
Venezuela
Shipping
Total
18.20 14.00
30.30 24.00
5.75 5.75
54.25 43.75
Liquefication, storage,
regasification
Field gas
North Africa
Shipping
Liquefication, storage,
regasification
Total
25.00 25.00
33.50 25.00
5.75 5.75
64.25 55.75
Field
Nigerian
Shipping
Liquefication, storage,
re gas ification
Field gas
Total
34.50 35.00
35.00 26.00
5.75 5.75
75.25 66.75
-------
VIII - 1
VIII.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The use of natural gas has been and will continue to be an important source
of fuel within the United States. It represents a very clean fuel and, as a re-
sult, a fuel which can become an important control in the fight against pollution.
To hold this role, however, will take a concerted effort within the next few
years to ensure adequate supplies in the future. Most industry spokesmen
are forecasting a gas shortage during the. 1972 through 1975 time period.
Their feeling is that the die is cast and very little can be done. This is partly
true in that the bulk of the solutions will not be available until the latter 1970s.
These include such items as LNG import, synthetic gas production, and {ield
stimulation. They will play an ever-increasing role in the gas industry, but
not for a while. The degree to which this shortage will exist will vary,
depending upon the source. It is generally agreed that gas power generation
by electric utilities will decline on a percentage basis due to these shortages
and will continue beyond the crisis due to high gas prices. The overall gas
consumption, however, will continue to rise. This high consumption level
will be met almost entirely by internal production until the latter 1970s. Imports
from Canada and Mexico will yield only a small percentage of our demand.
Beyond this, LNG imports will play an ever-increasing role. Reference 18
indicates that a dozen new LNG plants will be built in the world in the next
decade. Their capacities will be in the one billion cfd range with half their
output coming to the United States. An attractive economic picture could yield
. LNG capturing 10 percent of the United States market by 1981 and increasing
during the following years.
Liquid natural gas will meet a large part of the United States demand,
but cannot continue well into the 2000s. If gas is to continue its role, coal
gasification must pick up the slack. This process can supply sufficient gas
for at least another 100 years. This process is currently under pilot plant
investigation and could be developed to full scale capabilities in the 1980's.
-------
. 11.
12.
IX-1
IX. REFERENCES
1.
"Some Environmental Implications of National Fuels Policies," Com-
mittee on Public Works, United States Senate, December 1970.
2.
"Tremendous Consumption Seen to 1990, " Oil and Gas Journal,
March 8, 1971.
3.
"Potential Gas Figure Reduced for U. S.," The Oil and Gas Journal,
June 7, 1971.
4.
Cardwell, L. E., and L. F. Burton, Analyses of Natural Gases, 1969.
1970.
5.
"FPC Will Soon Tackle Hazy Area of LNG, " Oil and Gas Journal,
November 30, 1970.
6.
Institute of Gas Technology, LNG: A Sulfur-Free Fuel for Power
Generation. Chicago, Illinois, May 1969.
"World's First Large Scale Facility for Converting Coal to Pipeline-
Quality Gas, " Industrial Construction Magazine, June 1971.
7.
8.
"Supply and Demand for Energy in the United States by States and
Regions, 1960 and 1965," U. S. Department of the Interior, Bureau
of Mines, IC 8403, 1969.
9.
Danelli, L. L., W. B. Harper, "Natural Gas," Minerals Yearbook,
1969.
10.
1969 Gas Facts, Department of Statistics, American Gas Association,
Inc.
National Coal Association, Steam-Electric Plant Factor/1969, lQ.
Washington, D. C., November 1969.
American Gas Association, 1969.Gas Facts: A Statistical Record of
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IX-2
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