United States Office of EPA 520/1-86-010
Environmental Protection Radiation Programs August 1986
A9ency Washington, D.C. 20460
Radiation
v>EPA Rnal Rule for
Radon - 222 Emissions from
Licensed Uranium Mill
Tailings
Economic Analysis
-------
-------
40 CFR Part 61 EPA 520/1-86-010
National Emission Standards
for Hazardous Air Pollutants
FINAL RULE FOR RADON-222
EMISSIONS FROM LICENSED URANIUM MILL TAILINGS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
August 1986
Prepared For
Office of Radiation Programs
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
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CHAPTER
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE
INTRODUCTION. .
...........
. . . " " .
INDUSTR Y PROFILE
. . . . . . "
. . " . .
.....
2.1 SUPPLY. " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
2.2 DEMAND" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
2.3 INDUSTH. Y STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE. . .
REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PROFILE OF TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS AT. LICENSED
URANIUM MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . '. . . . . . . . . .
FORECASTS OF PRODUCTION, EMPLOYMENT, AND
BASELINE HEALTH EFFECTS. . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1 PROJECTIONS OF DOMESTIC URANIUM
PRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS. . . . . . . . . . .
4.3 BASELINE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE RADON-222
EMISSIONS AND FATAL LUNG CANCERS. . . . .
REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES FOR MILL TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS. . . . . . . . . .'. . . . . . . .
5.1 DESCRIPTION OF WORK PRACTICES. . . . . . . .
5.2 WORK PRACTICES FOR EXISTING TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.3 WORK PRACTICES FOR NEW TAILINGS
. IMPOUNDMENTS................
REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS AND COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRA CTICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.1 COST OF ALTERNATIVE PRACTICES.'. . . . . . .
6.2 BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES. .
6.3 ESTIMATED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS
OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES. . . . . .
ESTIMA TED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS OF
ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
(20 YEAR BASELINE) . . . . . . . .'. . . . . . . .
7.1 TOTAL COST ESTIMATES: FUTURE MILLS. . . . .
7.2 TOTAL BENEFITS ESTIMATES: FUTURE MILLS. . .
7.3 TOTAL COST ESTIMATES: EXISTING MILLS. . . . .
7.4 TOTAL BENEFITS ESTIMATES - EXISTING MILLS. .
i
PAGE
1
3
3
16
23
46
48
54
55
56
7'9
79
88
90
90
94
95
98
99
99
107
113
160
160
165
178
191
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CHAPTER
8
9
TABLE OF CONTENTS - (continued)
TIT LE
SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS .
...............
8.1 SENSITIVITY OF ESTIMATED COSTS TO ALTERNA TIVE
ASSUMPTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.2 SENSITIVITY OF ESTIMATED BENEFITS TO ALTERNA-
TIVE ASSUMPTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ECONOMIC IMP ACTS. . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . .
9.1 INCREASED PRODUCTION COST. . . . . . . . .
9.2 REGULATOR Y FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS. . . . . . .
REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ii
PAGE
204
204
206
217
217
222
223
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EXHIBIT
2-1
2-2
2-3
2-4
2-5
2-6
2-7
2-8
2-9
2-10
2-11
2-12
2-13
2-14
2-15
LIST OF EXHIBITS
TITLE
TOTAL URANIUM CONCENTRATE PRODUCTION,
1947 -19 84 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PRODUCTION OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE BY
CONVENTIONAL lVIlLLS AND OTHER SOURCES. . .
URANIUM MILL CAPACITY. . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
IMPORTS OF URANIUM CONCENTRA TE FOR
COMMERCIAL USES. . . . . . . . . .
. . . . .
U.S. COMMERCIALL Y-OWNED URANIUM INVENTORIES
AS OF DECEMBER 31,1983 AND 1984 . . . . . . .
LINEAR APPROXIMA TION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
1983 AVERAGE COST OF URANIUM PRODUCTION. .
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
UNDERGROUND MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-
THICKNESS RA TIO OF 76 AND AN ORE GRADE
OF 0.25 PERCENT U308. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
OPEN-PIT MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS
RATIO OF 24 AND AN ORE GRADE OF
0.20 PERCENT U308 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
REASONABLY ASSURED RESOURCES. . . . . . . . .
STATUS OF U.s. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
AS OF JUNE 30, 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
DELIVERIES OF URANIUM TO DOE ENRICHMENT
PLANTS BY DOMESTIC UTll.,ITIES . . . . . . . . .
EXPORTS OF URANIUM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
AVERAGE CONTRACT PRICES AND FLOOR PRICES
OF MARKET PRICE CONTRACTS BY YEAR
OF CONTRACT SIGNING. . . . . . . . . . . . .
HISTORICAL NUEXCO EXCHANGE VALUES. . . . . . .
PRICES FOR FOREIGN -ORIGIN URANIUM AS
OF JANUAR Y 1, 1984. . . . . . . . . .
.....
iii
PAGE
5
6
7
8
10
12
13
14
15
19
20
21
24
25
26
-------
EXH mrr
2-16
2-17
2-18
2-19
2-20
2-21(a)
2-21(b)
2-22
2-23
2-24
2-25(a)
2-25(b)
3-1
3-2
3-3
LIST OF EXHmlfS: (Continued)
TITLE
CAPfrAL EXPENDITUftES, EMPLOYMENT, AND ACfIVE
MILLS: CONVENTIONAL URANIUM
MILLING INDUSTR Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
OPERATING STATUS AND CAPACITY OF LICENSED
CONVENTIONAL URANIUM MILLS AS OF
NOVEMBER 1985. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S. URANIUM MILLING
INDUSTRY BY STATE, 1984 ........
URANIUM MILLING A CfIVITY IN THE
STATE OF WYOMING. . . . . .
. . . .
.........
FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM
INDUSTRY, 1980-1984. . . -. . . . . . . . . . . .
KERR-MCGEE COPORA TION URANIUM OPERA TIONS:
FINANCIAL DA TA, 1982-1984 . . . . . . . . . . .
KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION URANIUM OPERATIONS:
RESERVES, PRODUCfION, PRICES, AND
DELIVERIES, 1980-1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
HOMESTAKE MINING COMPANY
URANIUM OPERATIONS: 1982-1984
. . . .
. . . .
RIO ALGOM URANIUM OPERATIONS, 1981-1983.
. . . .
PHELPS DODGE ENERGY OPERATIONS, 1981-1984 . . .
UNION PACIFIC MINING OPERATIONS:
FINANCIAL INFORMATION, 1981-1984 .
. . . . . .
UNION PACIFIC URANIUM RESERVES AND
PRODUCfION . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SUMMAR Y OF URANIUM MILL TAILINGS PILES.
. . . .
. . . .
SUMMAR Y OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS UNDER CURRENT
CONDITIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SUMMAR Y OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL FATAL CANCERS
FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS. . . . . . . . . .
iv
PAGE
27
28
30
31
34
38
38
39
41
42
44
44
49
51
53
-------
EXHmrr
4-1
4-2
4-3
4-4
4-5
4-6
4-7
4-8
4-9
4-10
4-11
4-12
4-13
4-14
4-15
6-1
LIST OF EXHmITS: (Continued)
TITLE
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U308' 1980-2000 .
PROJECTED ELECTRICITY-GENERATION CAPACITY. .
SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY: 1980-1984 AND
REFERENCE CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE
YEAR 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY: 1980-1984 AND
ALTERNATIVE-CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE
THE YEAR 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
POST-2000 PROJECTIONS OF ANNUAL DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION OF U308. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U308'
1980-2085 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U308 . . . . . . .
DOMESTIC URANIUM RESOURCES. . . . . . . . . . .
PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
IN 2085 UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS. . . . . . . .
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN
ELECRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085 . . . . . . .
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN PER
CAPITAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085 . .
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 1985-2085. . . . . . . .
NUMBER OF EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS IN USE
AND NEW MILLS/IMPOUNDMENTS OPENED BY PERIOD
FOR THE REFERENCE CASE AND THE ALTERNATE
CA SE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ESTIMATED COMMITTED FATAL LUNG CANCERS FROM
RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . .
ESTIMATED FATAL LUNG CANCERS FROM EMISSIONS
OF RADON-222 FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS, BY STATE OF ORIGIN. . . . . . .
ESTIMATED COSTS OF BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . .
v
PAGE
57
61
62
63
65
68
69
72
76
78
80
81
84
86
87
100
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EXHillIT
6-2
6-3
6-4
6-5
6-6
6-7
6-8
6-9
6-10A
6-10B
6-10C
6-11A
6-11B
6-11C
LIST OF EXHillITS: (Continued)
TITLE
ESTIMATED COSTS OF PARTIALLY BELOW-GRADE NEW
MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS. . . . . . .
CONSTRUCTION AND COVER COST STREAM AND
PRESENT VALUE FOR ALTERNATIVE MODEL NEW
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS (BELOW GRADE) . . . . .
COST OF FINAL COVER OPTION ON EXISTING PILES. .
COST-OF INTERIM COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING
P~ES. . . . . . . . . _8 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SUMMAR Y OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM MODEL
NEW T/{ILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS. . . . . . . . . . .
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS AND
FATAL CANCERS AVOIDED DUE TO MODEL NEW
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . .
SUMMAR Y OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FOR EXISTING
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS GIVEN VARIOUS
COY ERS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED YEARLY FATAL CANCERS
FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS FOR
V ARIOUS COVERS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
:.,
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL. . .
PAGE
101
103
105
108
109
110
111
112
116
117
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL.
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLs - PHASED DISPOSAL. .
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST
OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL. . . . .
vi
119
121
122
-------
EXHffiIT
6-12
6-13A
6-13B
6-13C
6-14A
6-14B
6-14C
6-15
6-16A
6-16B
6-16C
6-16D
6-16E
6-17 A
LIST OF EXHffiITS: (Continued)
TITLE
PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS. . . . . .
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL. . .
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS
DISPOSAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER
FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL. . . . . . . .
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL. . . . .
SUMMAR Y OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS. . . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 . . . .
COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
vii
PAGE
123
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
135
136
137
138
149
140
-------
EXHffirr
6-17B
6-17 C
6-17 D
6-17E
6-18
6-19
6-20A
6-208
6-20C
6-20D
6-20E
6-21A
6-21B
6-21C
LIST OF EXHffirrS: (Continued)
TITLE
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER AT
EXISTING URANIUM MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . .
COMPARISON OF THE PRESENT VALUES OF TYPE 1
AND TYPE 2 COSTS AS A FUNCTION OF
THE REAL DISCOUNT RA TE. . . . . . . . . . . . .
PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATNES . . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
......
BENEFITS OF INTERIM STABILIZATION AT
EXISTING URANIUM MILLS. . . . . . .
......
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
viii
PAGE
141
142
143
144
146
147
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
-------
EXHrnrr
6-21D
6-21E
6-22
7-l(A)
7-1(B)
7-l(C)
7-2(A)
7-2(B)
7-2(C)
7-3
7-4(A)
7-4(B)
7-4(C)
LIST OF EXHrnITS: (Continued)
TITLE
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM STABILIZATION AT
EXISTING URANIUM MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . .
FATALITIES AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF
FINAL STABILIZATION. . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL. . .
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS
DISPOSAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL. . .
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS
DISPOSAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS. .
. . . .
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL. . .
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL.
ix
PAGE
157
158
159
162
163
164
166
167
168
169
171
172
173
-------
EXHmIT
7 -5(A)
7-5(B)
7-5(C)
7-6
7-7(A)
7-7(B)
7-7(C)
7-7(D)
7-7(E)
7-8(A)
7-8(B)
7-8(C)
7-8(D)
7-8(E)
LIST OF EXHmlrS: (Continued)
TITLE
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS
OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE
YEARS AFTER FILLING. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL. . . . . . . .
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL. . . . .
SUMMAR Y OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS. . . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2000. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER AT
EXISTING URANIUM MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . .
x
PAGE
174
175
176
177
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
-------
EXHmIT
7-9
7-10(A)
7-10(B)
7-10(C)
7-10(D)'
7-10(E)
7-11(A)
7-11(B)
7-11(C)
7-11(D)
7-11(E)
7-12
LIST OF EXHmITS: (Continued)
TITLE
PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES. . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
B Y 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BENEFITS OF INTERIM STABILIZATION AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
MILLS BY 1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM STABILIZATION AT
EXISTING URANIUM MILLS. . . . . . . . . . . . .
FATALITIES AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF FINAL
ST ABILIZA TION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xi
PAGE
190
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
203
-------
EXHmIT
8-1
8-2(A)
8-2(B)
8-3(A)
8-3(B)
8-4(A)
8-4(B)
8-4( C)
8-5(A)
8-5(B)
8-5(C)
9-1
9-2
9-3
LII;)T OF EXHmITS: (Continued)
TITLE
SUMMAR Y OF SENSITIVITY ANAL YSES FOR COSTS
AND BENEFITS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , .
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS FOR
FUTURE MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION. . . .
. . . .
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS FOR
FUTURE MILLS: PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE
DISPOSAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . .
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS AT EXISTING
MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . .
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVrry ANAL YSIS AT
EXISTING MILLS: PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE
DISPOSAL. . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . .
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
FUTURE MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION. . . . . . . .
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS AT
FUTURE MILLS: 380 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-
PERSON-WLM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
RESUL,TS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS AT
FUTURE MILLS: 1520 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-
PERSON-WLM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS AT
EXISTING MILLS: HIGHER PRODUCTION. . . . . . .
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS AT
EXISTING MILLS: 380 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-
PERSON-WLM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS AT
EXISTING MILLS: 1520 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-
P ERS 0 N - WL M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
COMPARISONS OF THE PRESENT VALUE OF THE
ESTIMATED COST IMPACTS WITH SELECTED
FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC
URANIUM INDUSTR Y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
IMPACTS ON ELECTRIC POWER COST. . . .
. . . . .
ELECTRICAL GENERATION BY NERC REGION 1984. . .
xii
PAGE
205
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
219
220
221
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CHAPTER 1:
INTRODUGrION
EP A issued environ:nental standards for nuclear power operations (40 CFR Part 190) in
1977. These standards limit the total radiation dose caused by radionuclide emissions
fro.ll facilities that comprise the uranium fuel cycle, including uranium mills and
tailings. However, the dose due to radon-222 was exempted from the standard. A t the
time 40 CFR 190 was promulgated, there existed considerable uncertainty about the
public health impact of existing levels of radon-222 as well as uncertainty about the
best method for management of new man-made sources of radon-222. It was decided to
consider radon-222 separately under a subsequent standard.
When EPA promulgated emission standards under the Clean Air Act for radionuclides
emitted from licensed commercial processing facilities (40 CFR 192) in October of
1983, those NRC facilities previously regulated under 40 CFR 190, such as uranium
mills, were exempted because they were subject to a rule that provided protection
substantially equivalent to that of the Clean Air Act rule. Consequently, radon-222
emissions from operating uranium mills were not included in either of the above rules.
EP A did consider radon-222 emissions from licensed uranium mills when standards
(10 CFH. 192) were issued under the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act
(U MTRCA) in 1983 for the management of tailings at locations that are licensed by the
NRC or Agreement States under Title n of that law. But the final rule did not limit
radon-222 emissions until after the closure of the facility and termination of the mill
operating license except to apply the "as low as reasonably achievable" (ALARA)
principle in establishing management procedures and regulations during operation. EP A
did state, at the time UMTRCA standards were promulgated, that an Advanced Notice
of Proposed R ulem aking would be issued to consider control of radon-222 from tailings
piles during the operational period of an uranium mill.
On October 31, 1984, EPA announced in the Federal Register an Advance Notice of
Proposed R ulemaking to inform interested parties that the Agency is considering
standards for radon-222 emissions for licensed uranium ore processing facilities
(uranium mills) under the Clean Air Act. Subsequently, EPA entered into an agreement
with the Sierra Club to promulgate these standards by May 1, 1986. By agreement of
these parties this date was changed to August 15, 1986. This was formalized by a court
stipulation from the United States District Court for the Northern District of
Calif ornia.
1
-------
This document presents the findings of an economic analysis of alternative proposed
work practices for controlling radon-222 emissions during the operation of licensed
uranium mills. The report contains separate chapters which discuss the:
.
current status of the domestic uranium milling industry;
current radon-222 emissions and risk estimates;
baseline forecasts of production, emissions, and health effects in the
absence of the proposed rules;
descriptions of proposed alternative work practices for controlling radon-
222 emissions from tailings impoundments;
estimates of the benefits and costs of these alternative work practices;
the probable economic impacts of the proposed rules; and
consideration of the financial impacts of the proposed rule on the owners
of existing and future mills, and the consumers of nuclear-generated
el ectri ci ty.
.
.
.
.
.
.
A draft of this document and of the Background Information Document (BID) were
distributed to the public in early 1986. Public hearings were conducted in March 1986
and several comments on the assumptions utilized in this report were presented. The
principal areas of concern referred to the interim cover option and the length of time it
was assumed that a facility would remain idle prior to final stabilization. In addition,
comments stressed the poor economic conditions in the uranium mining and milling
industries.
This document has been revised to address these concerns raised by the public. First,
the interim cover option has been revised to account for technical difficulties in
covering the evaporation ponds and sides of tailings piles. Second, the report now
includes two alternate assumptions about the length of time a pile may remain idle
prior to final stabilization. In addition to the 40-year assurnption contained in the
primary analysis, a complete set of costs and benefits for each regulatory alternative
has been developed for a much shorter idle period of 20 years.
Finally, the economic condi tion of the uranium industry and market is reaching an all-
time low. All facility owners are continuously evaluating their investments and
considering future costs and market uncertainties and some have chosen to permanently
close their plants in 1986. For the purpose of this analysis, industry data is current
through February 1, 1986.
2
-------
CHAPTER 2:
INDUSTR Y PROFILE
The U.S. uranium milling industry is an integral part of a domestic uranium production
industry that includes companies engaged in uranium exploration, mining, milling, and
downstream activities leading to the production of fuel for nuclear power plants. The
product of uranium milling is uranium concentrate, also referred to as uranium oxide,
yellowcake, or U 308. Uranium concentrate may be produced either from mined and
milled ore or through alternative sources such as solution mining, heap leaching, mine
water, mill tailings, low-grade stockpiles, and as a byproduct of other activities.
Conventional production from mined and milled ore is the focus of this report.1 In 1984,
conventional production amounted to 64.4 percent of total U308 production of 7,450
tons (DOE 85a).
The following pages describe the supply and demand characteristics of the conventional
uranium milling industry. Section 2.1 provides an overview of current and historical
sources of U 308 (domestic production, imports, and inventories) and analyzes the cost
of production. Section 2.2 characterizes the use of uranium by the nuclear power
industry, describes factors influencing demand, and reviews uranium pricing m echa-
nisms. Section 2.3 concludes the chapter with a review of industry structure and
performance, including industry and individual company statistics on capacity, produc-
tion, employment, mill location, and financial performance.
2.1 SUPPLY
2.1.1 Sources of Supply
The uranium used to fuel nuclear reactors is supplied by domestic and foreign
producers; the removal of uranium from utility inventories; and secondary market
transactions such as producer-to-producer sales, utility-to-utility sales and loans, and
utility-to-producer sales. The role of each is described in the following sections.
1 Production from al ternati ve sources does not produce the mill tailings that are the
object of the proposed regulation. Two of the alternative sources, mine water and heap
leaching, frequently go through the secondary milling circuit but never the primary circuit.
They therefore contribute to the liquid portion of mill tailings but not the solid portion.
The other alternative sources are not milled.
3
-------
Domestic Production
Exhibit 2-1 shows trends in domestic uranium production from 1947 to 1984, by state.
Total production was relatively constant at 10,500 to 12,500 tons per year until 1977,
when it began an increase that peaked in 1980 at 21,852 tons. Production has declined
in each year since, reaching only 7,441 tons in 1984 (DOE 85b).
Coinciding with the overall decline in the domestic production industry is a decline in
the share of production represented by conventional mills, as production from other
sources has remained fairly steady. Conventional milling has historically accounted for
over 90 percent of u.s. production. In 1983, the conventional share of production fell
to 70.6 percent, and in 1984 dropped again, to 64.7 percent (Exhibit 2-2). The resul t has
been severe overcapacity and mill closings (DOE 85a). Milling capacity, which almost
doubled between 1975 and 1980 when the price of uranium was high and optimistic
demand forecasts stimulated investment in milling facilities, once enjoyed a utilization
rate of 94 percent (JF A 85a). In March 1985, capacity utilization was about 71 percent
at operating mills. The number of operating mills has declined dramatically also, from
20 in 1981 to only two in June 1985 (DOE 85a). Industry sources indicate that the two
remaining mills are now operating at less than 50 percent of capacity (DOE 85a).
Uranium mill capacities and utilization levels are listed in Exhibit 2-3.
Imports
A second source of uranium is the import market. From 1964 to 1976, foreign uranium
was effectively banned from U.8. markets by a law prohibiting the enrichment of
imports for domestic use. This restriction was lifted gradually after 1977, and was
eliminated completely by 1984. ~s a. r~ult, impor.ts grew from zero prior to 1975, to
37.4 percent of u.s. requirements in 1984 (DOE 85a). The primary sources of u.s.
uranium imports are Canada, South Africa, and Australia. In 1983, 66 percent of U.S.
uranium imports were from Canada, 26 percent were from South Africa, and the
remaining eight percent were from various other nations (DOE 84a). Exhibit 2-4 shows
the history M U.S. imports from 1967 through 1984.1
IThe unusually high 1982 figure of 8,500 tons included a large exchange transaction
which should be excluded to obtain a more realistic picture of imports. Eliminating this
transaction, 1982 imports were only slightly higher than in 1983.
4
-------
EXHIBIT 2-1:
TOTAL URANIUM CONCENTRATE PRODUCTION, 1947-1984
(Short Tons U308)
Year(s) Colorado New Mexico Texas Utah Wyoming Others a Total
1947-1965 29,652 54,301 (b) 28,924 18,449 8,380 139,706
1966 1,423 5,076 (b) (c) 2,248 1,842 10,589
1967 1,340 5,933 (b) (c) 2,667 1,313 11,253
1968 1,614 6,192 (b) (c) 2,873 1,689 12,368
1969 1,678 5,943 (b) (c) 3,063 925 11 ,609
1970 (c) 5,771 (b) (c) 3,654 3,480 12,905
1971 (c) 5,305 (b) (c) 3,487 3,481 12,273
1972 (c) 5,464 (b) (c) 4,216 3,220 12,900
1973 (c) 4,634 (b) (c) 5,159 3,442 13,235
C,11 1974 (G) 4,951 (b) (c) 3,767 2,810 11,528
1975 (c) 5,191 (c) (c) 3,447 2,962 11 ,600
1976 (c) 6,059 (c) (c) 4,046 2,642 12,747
1977 (c) 6,779 (c) (c) 4,990 3,170 14,939
1978 (a) 8,539 (c) (c) 5,329 4,618 18,486
1979 (c) 7,423 2,651 (c) 5,452 3,210 18,736
1980 (c) 7,751 3,408 (c) 6,036 4,657 21,852
1981 (c) 6,206 3,141 (c) 4,355 5,535 19,237
1982 (c) 3,906 2,131 (c) 2,521 4,876 13,434
1983 (c) 2,830 1,600 (c) 2,630 3,519 10,579
1984 (c) 1,458 1,310 (c) 1,560 3,113 7,441
a various years, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and
Includes, for
Washington.
bData were not collected.
cIncluded in the "Others" category.
Source: DOE 85b
-------
EXHIBIT 2-2:
PRODUCTION OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE
BY CONVENTIONAL MILLS
AND OTHER SOURCES
1974-1984
(Short Tons U308)
Conventional
Production
Conventional Other Total As Percent
Year Production Productiona Production Of Total
1978 17,172 1,315 18,486 92.9
1979 16,877 1,860 18,736 90.0
1980 18,903 2,950 21,852 86.5
1981 15,998 3,239 19,237 83.2
1982 10,447 2,988 13,434 77.8
1983 7,760 2,820 10,579 73.3
1984 4,813 2,628 7,441 64.7
aSaleable U308 obtained from in situ leaching and as a byproduct of other processing.
Source: DOE 85b
6
-------
EXHIBIT 2-3:
URANIUM MILL CAPACITY
(Tons of Ore Per Day)
Operating Total
Capacity Capacity
Total Operating Utilization Utilization
Capacity Capacity Rate Rate
1981 54,050 49,800 83 77
1982 55,050 33,650 74 45
1983 51,650 29,250 58 33
1984 48,450 19,250 64 25
March 1985 49,450 11,950 71 18
Source: DOE 85a
7
-------
EXHIBIT 2-4:
IMPORTS OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE
FOR COMMERCIAL USES
1974-1984
(Short Tons U308)
Year of
Deli very Imports
1974 0
1975 700
1976 1,800
1977 2,800
1978 2,600
1979 1,500
1980 1,800
1981 3,300
1982 8,550
1983 4,100
1984 6,250
Source: DOE 85b
8
-------
Forecasts of import penetration call for the import share to grow through the 1990's.
The Department of Energy projects that without government intervention, between
1990 and 2000 imports will range between 54 and 69 percent of domestic utility
requirements, depending on demand levels. Government action is a real possi bili ty
however. Public Law 97-415 call'5 for a special study of the uranium industry at any
ti me that executed contracts or options for source material will result in greater than
37.5 percent of actual or projected domestic uranium requirements for any two-con-
secutive-year period. According to DOE esti mates, current import commitments make
up no more than 32 percent of U.S. utility reqL1irements in any year between 1985 and
2000. However, if utili ties continue to turn to foreign sources at the rates seen in
recent years, executed contracts for imports will rise above 37.5 percent of require-
ments and possibly trigger Federal intervention (DOE 85a).
Inventories
Utili ties hold uranium inventories in order to meet changes in the scheduling of various
stages of the fuel cycle, such as minor delays in deliveries of uranium feed. Uranium
inventories also protect the utilities against disruption of nuclear fuel supplies. The
average "forward coverage" currently desired by domestic utilities (in terms of forward
reactor operating reqL1ire l1ents) is 18 months for natura.l uranium (u 308) and seven
months for enriched uranium hexafluoride (uF 6) (DOE 85a).
Exhibit 2-5 lists inventories of commercially owned natural and enriched uranium held
in the Uni ted States as of December 31, 1982, 1983, and 1984. DOE-owned inventories
are not included. The uranium inventory owned by utilities alone at the end of 1984
represented almost five yea.rs of forward coverage. L'1cluding the 11,950 tons of
inventories held by domestic uranium producers and fuel fabricators would extend the
forward coverage by nine months (DOE 8580).
Secondary Market Transactions
The secondary market for uranium includes producer-to-producer sales, utility-to-
utili ty sales and loans, and utili ty-to-producer sales. The secondary market, by
definition, does not increase the supply of uranium, only the alternati ves for purchasing
it. As such, seconda.ry transactions can have a significant impact on the demand for
new production and on the year-to-year changes in inventories. The secondary market
9
-------
EXHIBIT 2-5:
U.S. COMMERCIALLY-OWNED URANIUM INVENTORIES
AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1983 AND 1984
(Short Tons U308 Equivalent)
Owner Category
Utilities
1982 1983 1984
Natural Enriched Natural Enriched Natural Enriched
49,550 18,950 46,600 32,050 47,950 31,800
18,550 350 16,900 350 11 , 450 500
68,100 19,300 63,500 32,400 59,400 32,300
Suppliers
TOTAL
Source: DOE 85b
10
-------
has been significant in recent years. During 1983, sales of 2,600 tons of U 308
equivalent were made between domestic utilities and suppliers in the secondary market.
During 1984, this quanti ty decreased to 850 tons (DOE 85a).
2.1.2 Cost of Production
In 1984, the average cost of producing U308 from ore mined and milled in the United
States was approximately $35 per pound (JFA 85a). Costs of production vary greatly
among producers, however, ranging from $11.50 to $53.00 (Exhibit 2-6). Exhibits 2-7
and 2-8 list the 1977 costs of production, by cost element, for sample under2'I'ound and
open-pit mines. Capital costs for mill construction ranged from $1.99 to $3.98 per ton
of ore processed, equal to 5.3 to 12.5 percent of the cost of production. Mill operating
costs ranged from $5.41 to $10.16 per ton of ore, equal to 15.0 to 31.1 percent of
production cost. Higher costs are generally associated with smaller cap!1city mines.
The exhi bits also show that milling costs are higher for low-grade deposits than for
high-grade deposits, since the amount of ore that must be processed to yield a pound of
U 308 is greater for the former. Since the average grade of ore processed has
decreased (from 0.154 in 1977 to 0.128 percent U308 in 1983), the share of production
costs accounted for by milling has probably increased (Zi 79).
Reasonably assured resources! of uranium in each of 32 countries are listed, by cost
category, in Exhibit 2-9. As the exhibit shows, while the U.S. has 20 percent of the
total reserves, it accounts for only 9 percent of the lower cost reserves (less than $36
per pound). Five countries - Australia, Brazil, Canada, Niger, and South Africa --
have greater reserves in the lower cost category (OECD 83). In 198" Canada and South
Africa accounted for 90 percent of uranium imports (DOE 84a).
The differences in cost of production for the U.S. and other countries can be explained
to a large extent by the grade of ore available in each country. The cost of producing
uranium is largely a function of the grade of the ore in the ore body. Since the U.S.
1Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) include uranium in known mineral deposits of such
size, grade, and configuration that it could be recovered within the given production
cost ranges, with currently proven mining and processing technology. Esti mates of
tonnage and grade are based on specific sample data, measurements of the deposits, and
knowledge of deposit characteristics. Reasonably Assured Resources have a high
assurance of existence.
11
-------
EXHIHIT 2-6:
LINEAR APPROXIi.1ATION Of' !'!iE J){STR}~"y_T10N OF 1983
AVERAGE COST OF U.S. URANIU~ PRODUCTION
5e
k:,=,::'~':~;"~TI~'~:-=-=~.
o
50
! : ~ j ~ 1 i
: : : : : :: .:::.. : :
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: :: ...' .00T""r'''';' . ..
~
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45
40
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. ......-:- ...... ~.... ..:......~.....~......:......~.. ....-:-...
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..........._....._............._...
. . . .. .
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.. .. .. .. .
. .. .. .. ..
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~ "'''r'Oo'~' ''''';'''''T ""r'
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. .
..... .."..:"'.0' ..1.... ., ............. I.
.......... '...
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.... "...
. .
'.............. ...'
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~
....,. ....
_....... .. .0'
'''0' ......,.
2!J
..". '..... ':... . ...-... ......0
0." ...
. .'... .0.-
..... "'" '..... ..~.......~. -...
.......
20
..-.....-.. ..
. .
. . .
. . .
..................._...
. . .
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. "
. '.'
. . . . .
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..~..... .~... ."r.' ....~.... ..;'.. ...~ ....
. .
e
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.... .,. ....; ....
,. ...
.1 .... ~
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...
~. . . . . . ... .
. .
.. ...... ..-........
. .
,.,."""..",."..,.,. .
. . . .
.......... ._..
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.-........... -
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'.'I""'.C'.'...~'.....'. ....,.
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... c..... ..: ..... .,..... 4.
.!""'O c... ..."!'.' ...,..... .~. '.'.'
o
5
10
Z5 JO ~ 40 .., 50 5.5 '0 65 70 ~
Percent 0' Present Production Level
.0
15
10
'0
IS
Source:
DOE 84b
12
J5
.00
-------
EXHIBIT 2-7:
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
UNDERGROUND MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS RATIO
OF 76 AND AN ORE GRADE OF 0.25 PERCENT U308
(in dollars per short ton of ore, in 1977 dollars)
Capacity (Short Tons of Ore Per Day)
500 1,000 2,000 3,000 5,000
Capital Costs
Mine primary development 7.99 6.26 5.30 5.01 4.53
Mine plant and equipment 1. 73 1. 35 1.06 0.96 0.87
Mill construction 3.98 3.24 2.66 2.32 1.99
- - - - -
Subtotal 13.70 10.85 9.02 8.29 7.39
Operating Costs
Mining 31.70 27.17 24.90 23.77 22.87
Hauling 1. 73 1. 73 1. 73 1. 73 1. 73
Milling 10.16 7.87 6.56 5.90 5.65
- - - -
Subtotal 43.59 36.77 33.19 31. 40 30.25
Total 57.29 47.62 42.21 39.69 37.64
Source: Zi 79
13
-------
EXHIBIT 2-8:
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
OPEN-PIT MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS RATIO
OF 24 AND AN ORE GRADE OF 0.20 PERCENT U308
(in dollars per short ton of ore, in 1977 dollars)
Capacity (Short Tons of Ore Per Day)
500 1,000 2,000 3,000 5,000
Capital Costs
Mine primary development 10.77 9.54 9.18 9.09 8.92
Mine plant and equipment 0.35 .35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Mill construction 3.98 3.24 2.66 2.32 1.99
- - -
Subtotal 15.10 13.13 12.19 11.76 11. 26
Operating Costs
Mining 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43
Hauling 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41
Milling 9.92 7.62 6.31 5.65 5.41
- -
Subtotal 16.76 14.46 13.15 12.49 12.25
Total 31.86 27.59 25.34 24.25 23.51
Source: Zi 79
14
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EXHIBIT 2-9:
REASONABLY ASSURED RESOURCES
(1,000 Tons of Uranium)
Data available January 1, 1983
Countries
Cost Range
Less than $36/lb $36-$59/lb
Total
Algeriab,e
Argentinab
Australia
Austri'l e
Brazila
Cameroon, Republic of
Canada
Central African Republica,d
Chile a,g
Denmark
Egypt
Finlanda
France
Gabon
Germany, Federal Republic of
Greece
India
Italy
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Mexicoa
Nami~iae
Niger ,c
perua
Portugal d
Somalia a,
South Africa
Spain f
Sweden
a
Turkey
Uniteg States of America
Zaire ,c
26
18.8
314
o
163.3
o
176
18
o
o
o
o
56.2
18.7
0.9
0.4
31.7
2.9
7.7
o
2.9
119
160
0.5
6.7
o
191
15.7
2
2.5
131. 3
1.8
4.5
22
0.3
o
9
2.3
27
o
3.4
11.3
4.7
4.2
o
10.9
10
16
1.5
6.6
122
4.5
37
2.1
275.9
26
23.3
336
0.3
153.3
o
185
18
2.3
27
o
3.4
67.5
23.3
5.1
0.4
42.6
2.9
7.7
10
2.9
135
160
0.5
8.2
6.6
313
20.2
39
4.6
407.2
1.8
TOT AL (rounded)
1,468
2,043
575
aUranium contained in-situ.
bUraniulTI contained in mineable ore.
cOECD (NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," P9.ris, 1977.
dOECD(NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1979.
eOECD(NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1982.
fIncludes 35,000 tons uranium in the Ranstad deposit from which no uranium production
is allowed due to a veto by local authorities for environmental reasons.
g Assigned to cost category by OECD.
Source: OECD 83
15
-------
has lower grade ore than many other large producing countries, it suffers a disadvan-
tage in costs (JF A 85). A dramatic example of this competitive disadvantage is
provided by comparing the quality of Canadian and U.S. ore. Accordimr to a 1984
article in Chemical Week, a ton of Canadian ore yields 40 to 60 pounds of U 308' while a
ton of U.S. ore yields only four pounds (CW 84).
2.2 DEMAND
Domestic uranium mill operators have two markets for their production: the U.S.
nuclear power industry and exports. The nuclear power industry is by far the more
important of the two. In 1984, 1,100 tons of U308 were exported, and current
commitments for exports total only 3,850 tons for 1985-2000 (DOE 85a). Military uses,
once the only source of demand for uranium, have been supplied solely by government
stockpiles since 1970 (DOE 848).
Demand for domesti. c uranium has declined for the past five years. In 1979, utili ties
delivered 15,450 tons of domestic uranium oxide to DOE for e:1richment, 42 percent
more than 1983 deli veries. Exports too have declined substantially. In 1979, exports
amounted to 3,100 tons, almost three times as much as in 1984. A number of negative
forces have combined to cause the current depressed state of the industry. Perhaps
most importantly, the growth in electricity generated by nuclear plants and the
expansion of nuclear power capaci ty has been much slower than had been forecasted in
the mid 1970's due in part to numerous construction delays and cancellations. Second,
as discussed in Section 2.1, imports have begun to playa major role in the U.S. urani urn
market. The import restrictions in effect from 1964 to 1977 have wldergone a phased
withdrawal, and as of 1985 there are no import limitations. The result has been a
steady increase in uranium imports from nations possessing high grade (and thus low
cost) uranium deposi ts. Expectations are that a growimr portion of utili ty require!T1ents
will be supplied by foreign-origin uranium during the second half of this decade (JF A
85).
A third factor contributing to the current downturn in the uranium industry, also
discussed in Section 2.1, is the large inventories being held by both producers and
utilities. Utilities, anticipating a growing need for uranium, entered into long-term
contracts to purchase large amounts of domestically produced uranium. As actual
needs fell short of expected needs due to nuclear power plant construction delays and
cancellations, large inventories began to accumulate. These inventory supplies,
16
-------
currently estimated to cover four to five years of utility require:nents, adversely affect
suppliers in two ways. They may extend the downturn in uranium demand for a number
of years by decreasing utility needs to enter new contracts. Also, high interest rates
have increased inventory holding costs, leading some utilities to contribute to current
excess supply by offering inventory stocks for sale on the spot market (JF A 85a).
The focus of the remainder of this section is on total U.S. demand for uranium, not just
on demand for domestic production or production from conventional mills. The first
subsection details historical uses of uranium. The concluding subsection provides a
brief description of uranium prices and pricing mechanisms.
2.2.1 Uranium Uses
Military Applications
In the early 1950's, the U.S. government's need for uranium for defense uses far
exceeded the world's production capability. A federally funded production incentives
program was then instituted. The incentives program was so effective that the
government phased it out in the 1960's and terminated its purchase program in 1970.
The government still has sufficient stockpiles to meet military require:nents "Nell into
the future.
Though Federal consumption data are not available to the public, apparent consumption
can be estimated from analysis of changes in stockpiles. Stocks held by the Department
of Energy between 1982 and 1984 were as follows:
Thousand Short Tons of U308 Equivalent
Natural Uranium
Enriched Uranium
Total Uranium
January 1, 1984
January 1, 1983
January 1, 1982
20.30
20.50
20.50
57.45
58.10
59.20
77.75
78.60
79.20
Inventory drawdown equaled 600 short tons in 1982, and 850 short tons in 1983. As the
government is not believed either to buy or sell uranium currently, inventory drawdown
is assumed equal to govermnent consumption (DOE 84a).
17
-------
Nuclear Power Plants
Since 1971, utilities, which use uranium as fuel for nuclear power plants, have been
virtually the only source of demand for current uranium production. Commercial
generation of nuclear powered electricity began in 1957 with the operation of the first
central station reactor at Shippingport, Pennsylvania. A t the end of 1983, 80 nuclear
reactors were licensed to operate in the United States, totaling 64.4 gigawatts of
generating capacity (DOE 84c)
Demand for uranium by utilities may be directly linked to the fuel requirements of
currently operating or planned nuclear power plants. The status of U .8. nuclear power
plants as of June 30, 1985 is shown in Exhibit 2-10. Because of the long lead times
associated with the ordering, construction and permitting of nuclear power plants it is
extremely unlikely that any additional orders for new nuclear plants will result in
operable capacity before 1996 (DOE 85c).
Historical consumption data for utilities are not available. The closest approximation is
statistics on deliveries by utilities of uranium to DOE enrichment plants. Deliveries for
1977 to 1984 are listed in Exhibit 2-11.
Exports
Exports of uranium by producers have declined in every year since 1979. In 1984, at
1,100 tons of U308' they were at their lowest level since 1976. Current commitments
for exports total only 4,400 tons for 1985-2000 (DOE 85b). Exports for the years
1967-1984 are shown in Exhibit 2-12.
2.2.2 Pricing
Two basic types of pricing arrangements dominate the procurement of
uranium: contract pricing and market pricing. In procurements with contract pricing,
prices and their escalation factors, if any, are determined when the contract is signed.
In procurements with market pricing, the price is commonly determined just before
delivery and is based on the market price prevailing at that time. Some market price
contracts contain a floor price, set at the time the contracts are signed, that serves as
a minimum on the eventual settled price. Pricing arrangements that cannot be
18
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EXHIBIT 2-10:
STATUS OF U.S. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
AS OF JUNE 30, 1985
Status
Num ber
of
'Reactors
Net Design
Capacity
(GWe)
Operable
In Commercial Operation.
In Pow~ Ascension.
Total. . . .
86
5
91
71.1a
6.0
77.0
In Construction Pipeline
In Low-Power Testing.
Under Construction.
Indefinitely Deferred.
Canceled, With Extension of Construction
Permit Requested
Total.
4
26
7
4.1
29.7
7.3
1
38
1.1
42.2
Reactors on Order
2
2.2
Total
131
121. 4
aIncludes Three Mile Island 1 (819 MWe), which has an operating license but re;nained in
an extended shutdown mode at publication time. Three Mile Island 2, Dresden 1, and
Humboldt Bay are not included.
bTotal capacity may not equal sum of components, due to independent rounding.
Source: DOE 85c
19
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EXHIBIT 2-11:
DELIVERIES OF U RANIU M TO DOE ENRICHMENT PLANTS
BY DOMESTIC UTILITIES
Amount Delivered
(Short Tons U 3°8)
U.S. Foreign
Year Origin Origin Total
1977 . . . . . . . . 14,250 700 14,950
1978 . . . . . . . . 11,950 750 12,700
1979 . . . . . . . . 15,450 1,600 17,050
1980 . . . . . . . . 11,150 1,200 12,350
1981 . . . . . . . . 10,050 1,150 11,200
1982 . . . . . . . . 13,550 3,000 16,550
1983 . . . . . . . . 10,850 2,200 13,050
1984 . . . . . . . . 8,400 5,750 14,150
Sources: DOE 84a, DOE 85b
20
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EXHIBIT 2-12:
EXPORTS OF URANIU!'v1a
(Thousand Short Tons of U308)
H istor ical Exports
Total Producer
Year Exports Exports
1967 N.A. 0.7
1968 N.A. 0.8
1969 N.A. 0.5
1970 N.A. 2.1
1971 N.A. 0.2
1972 N.A. 0.1
1973 N.A. 0.6
1974 N.A. 1.5
1975 N.A. 0.5
1976 N.A. 0.6
1977 N.A. 2.0
1978 N.A. 3.4
1979 N.A. 3.1
1980 N.A. 2.9
1981 N.A. 2.2
1982 3.10 2.2
1983 1.65 N.A.
1984 1.10 N.A.
aTotal exports include exports by utili ties, produce rs and oth er suppliers (reac tor
manufacturers and fuel fabricators). Data for exports by utilities and other suppliers
were not coUected prior to 1982.
N.A. = Not Available.
~ources:
DOE 84a, DOE 85a
2J
-------
classified as either market or contract ~icing are grouped in a third category. This
"other" category refers primarily to supply arrangements wherein the buyer has direct
control of a uranium property. Among 1983 deliveries of uranium, 41 percent used
contract pricing, 55 percent used market pricing, and four percent used "other" pricing
arrangements (DOE 84a).
The concept of market pricing is probably the most complex of the three types. While
it is common to refer to a "market" or "spot" price for uranium, there is actually no
centralized spot or futures market. Contracts are negotiated either between a
producer and a utility, through a middleman such as a nuclear power plant manu-
facturer, or through a broker. The price commonly referred to as the "spot price" for
uranium is a price published by the Nuclear Exchange Corporation (NUEXCO), the
principal uranium broker. This price, which NUEXCO calls the uranium "exchange
value" is a monthly estimate of the price at which transactions for immediate delivery
could have been concluded as of the last day of the month (DOE 83).
Historical Prices and Pricing Mechanisms
Prior to 1968, prices were largely determined by the Atomic Energy Commission. In .
the early years of the commercial uranium market, 1968 through 1973, the price of
uranium declined and remained low despite conditions of excess long term demand.
Beginning in 1973 the price of uranium jumped due to immediate industry requirements,
a surge in long term contracting due in part to changes in procedures for enrichment
service contracts, and other factors.
A t the same time, the terms tmder which long-term contracts were priced began to
change. Until 1973 contracting was typically under fixed price contracts with inflation
provisions. However, in 1973 producers resisted signing fixed price contracts because,
due to production cost increases, they were losing money on previous fixed price
contracts and because they anticipated price rises in the future. In 1974, when uranium
became a seller's market, market price contracts became increasingly popular. These
contracts were written to guarantee the producer a base rate-of-return on investment.
In a short time, market price contracts became the norm.
In 1979-1980, the sellers' market for uranium ended and the uranium market witnessed a
sharp decline in prices due to postponements and cancellations of nuclear reactors, the
22
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build-up of uranium inventories at utilities, and growing competition from low-priced
imported uranium. A sharp decline in the nominal price of uranium began in 1980,
dropping from over $40 per pound of U308 at the end of 1979 to $23.50 per pound by
August 1981. In real terms (adjusted for inflation) the price had actually begun
dropping in 1976. The price in August 1981 in constant dollars was half of what it had
been in 1976. The price has continued to drop slowly from 1980 through 1984 (DOE 83).
Historical average contract prices and floor prices of market price contracts are
provided in Exhibit 2-13. Historical NUEXCO exchange values, or "spot prices" are
listed in Exhibit 2-14.
Prices of Foreign-Origin Uranium
Prices of imported uranium are substantially lower than domestic prices. The average
price paid for 1983 deliveries of imported uranium was $26.16 per pound of U308'
approximately one-third less than the amount paid for domestic-origin uranium
(DOE 84a). Exhibit 2-15 shows the weighted average price paid by domestic customers
for 1981 to 1983 deliveries of foreign-origin uranium and projected prices for 1984
deliveries.
2.3 INDUSTR Y STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE
The number of firms participating in the domestic uranium milling industry has declined
in recent years. In 1977, there were 26 companies that owned active uranium mills. In
1983, the number had fallen to 11, and by June 1985, there were only 2 (DOE 84b;
PEl 85a). The contraction of the industry can also be seen in trends in employment and
capital expenditures (Exhibit 2-16). Capital expenditures in 1984 were only $4 million,
compared to $287 million in 1979 (1984 dollars) (DOE 85a; DOE 84a). Employment in
1984 was a low 987 person-years, compared to 3236 person-years in 1979 (DOE 85b;
DOE 80).
2.3.1 Mill Capacity and Output
Mining and milling production data for individual co;npanies are collected by DOE but
are not available to the public. However, some aggregate data are published. During
1984, the top 4 firms accounted for 55 percent of mill output, and the top 8 for 87
percent (DOE 85a). Mill capacities by firm and mill are listed in Exhibit 2-17.
23
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EXHIBIT 2-13:
AVERAGE CONTRACT PRICES AND FLOOR PRICES
OF MARKET PRICE CONTRACTS
BY Y EAR OF CONTRACT SIG NING
(January 1984 Dollars Per Pound of U308)
Average Average Combined Average
Year Of Contract Floor Contract and
Signing Price Price Floor Pricea
1975 41.72 43.10 42.47
1976 63.33 60.68 61 .01
1977 50.30 55.39 53.76
1978 43.70 51.22 45.56
1979 34.81 43.25 35.18
1980 40.74 47.25 43. 11
1981 22.36 23.84 22.73
1982 28.36 NR 28.36
1983 29.56 26.00 29.03
aprices are weighted averages.
NR = None reported.
Source: DOE 84a
24
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EXHIBIT 2-14:
HISTORICAL NUEXCO EXCHANGE VALUES
(Nominal Dollars Per Pound of U308)
Nom inal Dollars Per
Year Pound of U308
As of DecemBer 31
1968 5.50
1969 6.20
1970 6.15
1971 5.95
1972 5.95
1973 7.00
1974 15.00
1975 35.00
1976 41. 00
1977 43.00
1978 43.25
1979 40.75
1980 27.00
1981 23.50
1982 20.25
Source: PNL 84
?5
-------
EXHIBIT 2-15:
PRICES FOR FOREIGN-ORIGIN URANIUM
AS OF JANUARY 1, 1984
Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
Quantity- Weighted
Average Price Per
Pound of U308
(Year-of-Delivery Dollars)
32.90
31. 05
26.16
27.39
Amount
of U308
(Thousand Short Tons)
Percentage
Of Total
Import Delivery
Commitments Sampled
2.20
2.00
4.10
3.25
67
53
100
70
Sources:
DOE 84a, DOE 82
26
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EXHIBIT 2-16:
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, EMPLOYMENT, AND ACTIVE MILLS:
CONVENTIONAL URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY
Capital Expenditures
(million constant 1984 $)
Employment
(Person-Years)
Active Number of Mills
At Year-End
Production
(Short Tons)
t,:)
-.::I
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
281
307
68
12
3
4
3,236
3,251
2,367
1,956
1,518
987
N/A
N/A
20
14
12
8
16,877
18,903
15,998
10,447
7,760
4,813
N/ A = not available
Sources: DOE 85a, DOE 85b, DOE 80
-------
EXHIBIT 2-17:
OPERATING STATUS AND CAPACITY OF LICENSED CONVENTIONAL
URANIUM MILLS AS OF AUGUST 4, 1986(a)
State
Mill
Colorado
Canon City
Uravan
New Mexico
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater
Quivira
Grants
Edgemont
Panna Maria
Conquista
Ray Point
White Mesa
La Sal
Moab
Shootaring Canyon
Ford
Sherwood
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Washington
Wyoming
Highland
Gas Hills
Shirley Basin
Gas Hills
Split Rock
Gas Hills
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater
Owner
Cotter Corp.
Umetco Minerals
Sohio/Kennecott
United Nuclear
Anaconda
Kerr-McGee
Homestake
TV A
Chevron
Conoco/Pioneer
Exxon
Umetco Minerals
Rio Algom
Atlas
Plateau Resources
Dawn Mining
Western Nuclear
Exxon
American Nuclear Corp.
Petrotomics
Pathfinder
Western Nuclear
Umetco Minerals
Rocky Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exploration
Operating
Status(b)
Standby
Standby
Decom m~ss~on~ng~~~
Decom m~ss~on~ng(d)
DecommissIoning
Standbv
Activete)
Decommissioned
Active
Decom missioned
Decom missioned
A t" (t)
c ~ve(g)
Active
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Decom missioned
Decommissioned
Decommissioned
Standby
Standby
Standby d)
Decommissioning(
Active
Standby
Operating
Capacity
(tons/day)(c)
1200
1300
1650
4000
6000
7000
3400
2600
2000
750
1400
800
600
2000
2500
1700
1400
2000
1800
3000
Total
5 Acti ve
11 Standby
10 Decommissioned or
intend to decommission
(a) Data obtained from conversations with Agreement States, NRC representatives, and mill operators. Does not include mills
licensed but not constructed.
(b) Active mills are currently processing ore and producing yellowcake. Standby mills are not currently processing ore, but are
capable of restarting. The mill structure has been dismantled at decommissioned mills and tailings pUes are currently undergoing
reclamation or will be.
(c)Tons indicates short tons equal to 2000 lbs.
(d)Submitted letter of intent to decommission
(e)Operating only a few days each month.
(f)Current contract will allow operation for 12-18 months.
(g) Likely to go to standby status.
28
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A wide variety of companies are represented within the uranium industry. In the
industry's early years, holdings were dominated by independent mining and exploration
companies. Since then, mergers, acquisitions, and the entry of conglomerates have
considerably altered industry structure. During the 1970's the oil embargo and
optimistic forecasts of future nuclear power capacity made entry into the uranium
market attractive to oil companies and utilities. Of the 17 companies that owned mills
in 1984, ten were subsidiaries of oil companies, utilities, or large chemical companies;
one was a subsidiary of a transportation company; and six were mining corporations.
For the most part, uranium activities are a small part of the owners' business. This
influences the long-term outlook for the stability of the industry since large, diversified
companies are likely to have the financial resources to weather the current downturn in
the market if they expect a return to profitability.
2.3.2 Employment Analysis
Department of Energy estimates of employment in the uranium milling industry in 1984
are listed in Exhibit 2-18. Additional detail at the State level was obtained through
discussions with staff of the departments of mining or natural resources in the States
with uranium mills. This is provided in the following paragraphs.
Historically, New Mexico and Wyoming have been the nation's leading producers of
uranium and have jointly been responsible for an estimated 70 to 75 percent of total
uranium concentrate production. Following the peak production period of 1981 and
1982, and since the onset of the production decline in the latter part of 1982, it is
estimated that approximately 7000 jobs have been lost in New Mexico as production fell
from 253 million tons in 1982 to 36 million in 1984 (NM 85).1
Exhibit 2-19 contains a description of uranium milling activity in the State of Wyoming.
It reveals that there were seven uranium mine-mill complexes and one uranium mill in
1980 collectively e;nploying 2451 people. In 1981, there were seven mills and mine-mill
complexes employing 1361 people. In 1984, data were available for five mine-mill
1Employment and output estimates provided by State sources may not agree with those
provided by the U.S. Department of Energy and presented elsewhere in this report, due
to differences in data collection procedures.
29
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EXHIBIT 2-18:
EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY
B~ STATE, 1984
State
Person- Years Expended
215
310
462
Colorado
Wyoming
Arizona, New Mexico,
Texas, Utah, Washington
TOTAL
987
Source: DOE 85b
30
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EXHIBIT 2-19:
URANIUM MILLING ACTIVITY IN THE STATE OF WYOMING
Name of Name of Mine Counly and faeitities No. of Employees Production (Tons)
Operator LocatIon 1980 1881 1884 11180 1881 11184
-.. Creek Beer Creek N.trona Surfaee Uranium 2~8 232 160 539,000 62~,OOO 448,464
Uranium Co. Mine Mine and Mill
Complex
Peder.1 Millinc Premont Uranium Mill 100 13~ n~1 ~OO 411,292
American Plont !I Engineering
P.,.tners and
ExpJoration
Minen" Sweetwater Sweet water Open Pit Uranium 267 2~4 39~, ~8~ 1,026,841
Explorabon Uranium Mine and Mill
Corporation Project
Pathfinder Luck MeMine Premont Open Pit Uranium 481 107 73 MeMilJ MeMlIl MeMlU-
Min.. and MeMill Mine and Mill 180,416 819,580 589,874
Corporation MeMine yeUow
631,213 .oke
Patht\n4er Shirley Suin Corbon Open Pli Uranium ~~6 403 141 1,086 466,348 8~, 216
Min.. Mine Mine, Mill and yellow
Corporation Maintenance eoke
IIhop
Petro- Patronlea Corbon Open Pli Uranium ~U 44 1,138,"5 21S, 103
tronles tronIes Mine and MiU yello"
Company ~ne.nd Mill eoke
W.tem MelntOlh Premont Open Pli Uronium 38 221,718
Nuclear Pli Mine and MIll
"'..
Western Spit Rook Pre mont Open Ptt Uranium 226 147 22 588,102 208,521
Nuclear Mill Mines and Mill
Getty on Petro Cor- Uranium Mill 83 485,385
Company tronI.. Mill
Totol:
'Milled'
and
Mined
and
Milled"
(10111) 3,8'11,150 3,820,841 1,318,857
Totah
No.ol
BmpJoy-
.......ed
In 'minJnc
and 01111 "II' 24~1 1361 454
Por...,..,. Chonp 1980-84
Totol:
'Milled' and
'MiUed and !tfined -62",
Totol:
Mo.of employees
encoced in
'miniRi and
mlllnl'
and mlU"" -81'"
NOTES:
I. '!be 1981 data were found under the name "Pederal Ameriean Mine" which operated the toOowtnc
taetlti..: und~ minej open~t mine and uranium enraetion miU.
I. "--"Inclleol.' doto not found, ""''''' mi8h11UQ'eot the .- of . mill. By """\rut, an ..try or zero
mJlbt..." u an tndleation that the miD wu sliU operationaL
SOURCES: WyOmtna State 1nIpeetor of Mln8l. 1180, 1911 and 1.14
31
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complexes and one mill, and only four of these operations :-ecorded any output.
Employment was down to 454 workers. Thus, from 1981 to 1984, the total number of
individuals employed at mills and mine-mill complexes declined by 81 percent and
production declined by approximately 6 percent (WY 80, 81, and 84).
In the State of Washington, before 1982 there were two mine-mill complexes: Midnight
mines (owned and operated by Dawn Mining Company) and the Sherwood Mine (owned by
Western Nuclear, a subsidiary of Phelps Dodge Corporation). In 1981, Dawn employed
50 workers, and in 1982 it employed 42. In 1981, Sherwood employed 45 workers, while
in 1982 it employed 14 miners plus 98 maintenance workers. Both mine-mill complexes
are currently inactive and unemployment (estimated at 40 percent from 1982 to 1983)
was estimated to be as high as 80 percent (W A 85).
In Colorado, there were 508 mineral industry operations in 1980, 100 of which were
engaged in the production of uranium. By 1985 however, there were only two mines or
mine/mill complexes: Centennial and Schwartzwalder. In 1980, the uranium industry
employed approximately 1594 individuals (Nugent 80), whereas it is estimated that the
two operations now employ about 200 people (Co 85).
In Texas, there were until recently, three mills: the Conquista Project (Conoco), Ray
Point (Exxon) and the Panna Maria complex (Chevron). The Conquista complex, it is
estimated, employed over 500 people during its peak period from 1979 to 1980, and the
Panna Maria complex about 250 people during its peak period from 1981 to 1983. The
Conquista Project and Ray Point have now been decommissioned. The Panna Maria
complex maintains a skeleton staff of seven to eight people (TX 85).
2.3.3 Community Impact Analysis
The impact of trends in uranium milling on small communities dependent on uranium
milling facilities tends to vary depending on the location of the mines; the importance
of uranium mining and milling to the state; and the nature of the workforce. Texas and
Washington are on opposite sides of the dependency spectrum, and therefore serve as
interesting case studies.
In the State of Washington, the uranium facilities are located primarily in the Spokane
Indian Reservation. Mining soon became the main economic activity as the mining
companies were under contractual obligation to draw 51 percent of their labor force
32
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from the Indian community. When the two Washington mine-mill complexes, Midnight
Mines and Sherwood Mines, closed in 1983-1984, the unemployment rate rose to about
80 percent. This is perhaps partly attributable to the absence of any other mining
activity on the reservation which might have absorbed some of the displaced workers.
This high unemployment rate also suggests limited mobility on the part of miners and
workers. Thus, in the case of Washington it would seem that the employment effects
were concentrated, and felt largely by the Indian com muni ty which served as the
principal source of labor for uranium mining and milling within the state (WA 85).
In Texas, in contrast, the community impacts of the uranium industry are less
significant. Most uranium industry employees were originally farmers and ranchers,
maintaining and upgrading their properties during the lifetime of their mining careers.
Moreover, they were mostly a commuting workforce so there was no residual pool of
unemployed persons in the vicinity of the mines once the decline in employment took
place in the 1980's. There were no uranium mining communities as such in the State of
Texas which were dependent on the mining and production of uranium for their
subsistence. Moreover, many workers were absorbed by the booming petroleum and
lignite industries (TX 85).
In the case of both Colorado and Utah, the ability to absorb unemployed uranium
workers is limited. In Colorado this has been due to the depressed state of the mining
industry in general within the State (CO 85). In New Mexico, where uranium mining and
milling are considered an important economic activity, there were areas of concen-
trated impact - such as Gallup, the Laguna Pueblo area and the Navajo Indian
Reservation. The wide scale reduction in employment observed in recent years, the
reduction in sales and sales tax revenues, the loss of severance payments, a significant
amount of out-migration to Nevada and several other states, and a concomitant
reduction in income tax revenue have combined to make the impact significant and
state-wide as opposed to community-specific (N M 85).
2.3.4 Financial Analysis
Selected financial data for the domestic uranium industry for 1980 to 1984 are shown in
Exhibit 2-20. The data cover a subset of firms (the same firms for all years) that
represent over 80 percent of the assets in the industry in each year. The firms included
are those for which uranium operations could be separated from other aspects of the
organization's business, and for which an acceptable level of consistency in financial
33
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EXHIBIT 2-20:
FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM INDUSTRY, 1980-1984 - (Continued)
.. - -- -----
(Million Dollars)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Income Statement
Operating Revenues. . . . . . . 999.3 1,067.5 888.9 767.7 525.8
Operating Income (Loss) . . . . . 4.5 62.1 (43.5) 73.4 (10.0)
Net Income (Loss). . . . . . . . . (11. 0) 40.8 (15.9) 37.8 (205.5)
Source and Use of Funds Statement
Net Income (Loss). . . . . . . . . (11.0) 40.8 (15.9) 37.8 (205.5)
Depreciation, Depletion,
and Amortization. . . . . . . . . 138.2 170.8 225.3 152.5 97.4
Deferred Taxes. . . . . . . . . . 38.3 22.7 (22.6) 1.5 (65.6)
Debt and Equity . . . . . . . . . . 275.0 296.4 352.8 21.4 16.5
"" Other Sources 263.3 98.1 118.6 174.2 441.1
~ . . . . . . . .
Total Sources. . . . . . . . . 703.6 628.8 658.2 387.4 283.9
Capital Expenditures (Property,
Plant, and Equipment). . . . . . . . 464.1 297 . 3 122.2 61.5 29.1
Debt Repayment . . . . . . . . . . 28.4 167.9 93.1 53.4 72.5
Other Uses . . . . . . . . . . . . 155.9 101. 7 354.2 234.7 109.2
Total Uses. . . . . . . . . . . . 648.4 566.9 569.5 349.6 210.8
Change in Working Capital. . . . . . 55.4 61. 9 88.7 37.8 73.1
Balance Sheet
Current Assets (Less Inventory). . . . 249.2 220.9 253.2 261. 5 393.2
Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . 255.5 331.0 381. 4 292.7 356.6
Net PP&E . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,065.0 2,293.7 2,106.1 1,546.9 1,351. 0
Other Noncurrent Assets. . . . . . . 350.4 263.4 431. 8 553.8 351.7
Total Assets. . . . . . . . . . . 2,920.1 3,109.0 3,172.5 2,654.9 2,452.5
Current Liabilities . . . . . . . . 246.0 221. 8 193.4 147.5 304.9
Deferred Liabilities. . . . . . . . . 1,378.1 1,542.2 1 , 441. 4 1,544.6 1,321. 4
Total Liabilities . . . . . . . . . 1,624.1 1,764.0 1,634.8 1,692.1 1,626.3
Equity. ". . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,296.0 1,345.0 1,537.7 962.8 826.2
Total Liabilities and Equity. . . . . 2,920.1 3,109.0 3,172.5 2,654.9 2,452.5
-------
EXHIBIT 2-20:
FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM INDUSTRY, 1980-1984
(Million Dollars) - (Continued)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Ratios (percent)
Rates of Return
Net Income to Total Asstes. . . . . -0.4 1.3 -0.5 1.4 -8.4
Net Income to Total Equity. . . . . -0.8 3.0 -1.0 3.9 -24.9
Net Income to
Net Investment in Place. . . . . -0.5 1.8 -0.8 2.4 -15.2
Fund Flow Measures
Additions to PP&E to
Total Sources of Funds. . . . . 65.9 47.3 18.6 15.9 10.3
~ Leverage Measures
CJ1 Deferred Liabilities to
Total Equity. . . . . . . . . 106.3 114.7 93.7 160.4 159.9
Deferred Liabilities to
Total Assets . . . . . . . . . . 47.2 49.6 45.4 58.2 53.9
Liquidity Measures
Current Ratio . . . . . . . 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.8 2.5
Liquidity Ratio. . . . . . . . 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.3
Source: DOE 85a
-------
reporting practices was available for all years. Financial data on the milling industry
alone arc not available.
As shown in the exhibit, net income accruing to the uranium industry was positive in
only two years, 1981 and 1983. The returns on assets (net income divided by total
assets) in these years were 1.3 and 1.4 percent respectively, and aggregate net earnings
totalled $78.6 minion. In 1980, 1982 and 1984, the returns on assets were -0.4, -0.5,
and -8.4 percent, and aggregate net losses reached $232.4 million. The loss in 1984
alone was $205.5 million on revenues of $525.8 million. Thus, the aggregate loss for the
five years was $153.8 million. Compared to the rest of the economy, the uranium
industry's situation appears even worse: for the period 1980-1984, the annual growth in
after-tax corporate profits for the total domestic economy averaged 19.3 percent.
The industry's financial picture in 1984 stemmed largely from the need for restructuring
of its asset base in response to the continuing decline in the market for uranium. Many
uranium properties and facilities were written down in 1984 to reflect the present value
of the revenues froiD contracted future deliveries of uranium. During 1984, an amount
well in excess of $200 million was charged against income in the writedown process.
The adjustment will permit most to be more competitive in the future (DOE 85a).
Company-specific information on uranium production, revenues, profits, and plans is
provided in the following paragraphs.
Kerr-McGee Corporation
Kerr-McGee has been a major domestic uranium producer since it first entered the
industry in 1952. In October of 1983, the company split its uranium operations into two
divisions, Quivira Mining Company and Sequoyah Fuels Corporation. Quivira became
the uranium mining and milling subsidiary, operating two mining complexes and
processing the ore at the nation's largest (7000 ton per day) mill, in Grants, New
Mexico. Sequoyah Fuels operates a facility in Oklahoma that is one of only two plants
in the U.S. that converts U 308 into uranium hexafluoride (UF 6) and also produces
uranium concentrate from solution mining in Wyoming.
In January 1985, Kerr-McGee placed its mines and mill on standby. The uranium
operations, which have been for sale for some time, have been written down in value in
J6
-------
Kerr-MeGee's financial statements, by $42 milJion after taxes, to the present value of
existing contracts. Contractual commitments will be met through inventory and mine-
water recovery techniques (AR 84a, AR 83a). Statistics on Kerr-MeGee's uranium
operations are provided in Exhibit 2-21.
Homestake Mining Company
Homestake Mining Company owns two conventional uranium mines and a 3400 ton per
day mill in Grants, New Mexico. During 1984, production of uranium was reduced to
the minimum level at which satisfactory unit costs could be maintained. Mine
production was confined to one mine operating on a five~ay-week schedule for ten
months of the year. Uranium concentrate was also recovered from solution mining and
ion-exchange. In 1984, uranium accounted for 18 percent of the company's revenues,
and a disproportionate 31 percent of operating earnings, for a return on operations of 34
percent. The high return for the vear is attributed to existing contracts which provide
for sale prices above current spot prices and production costs. In 1982 and 1983, in
comparison, the returns on uranium operations were 24 and 19 percent, respectively.
Operating returns for all Homestake operations during 1982-1984 were 23, 26 and 20
percent, respecti vely.
During 1985, the company suspended its conventional mining and milJin~ operations and
expanded its uranium leaching facilities. Uranium earnings are expected to continue to
decline in the next two years with the expiration of existing sales contracts (AR 84b).
Financial information for Homestake's uranium operations is presented in Exhi 1:i t 2-22.
Rio Algom
Rio Algom is a Canadian corporation engaged in the mining of a wide variety of
materials, including copper, steel, and uranium. In 1983, uranium operations accounted
for 38 percent of corporate revenue, but most (94 percent) was from Canadian
production. In the Uni ted States, the company owns two uranium mines and a 750 ton
per day mill in La Sal, Utah.
In 1983, the company produced 167 tons of uranium oxide from its Utah mines, and
delivered 150 tons under a new contract secured for the years 1983-1986. The mines
operated at approximately 50 percent of capacity in 1983, while the mill operated at
37
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EXHmIT 2-21(80):
KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION
URANIUM OPERATIONS:
FINANCIAL DATA, 1982-19841
(million $)
Depreciation, Depletion
Capi tal Expendi tures
1984
$ 90
( $ 67)
$ 182
$ 14
$ 1
1983
$ 115
($ 6)
$ 288
$ 15
$ 4
1982
$ 153
$ 20
$ "313
$ 16
$ 7
Sales
Operating Income
Assets
EXHmIT 2-21(b):
KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION
URANIUM OPERATIONS:
RESERVES, PRODUCTION, PRICES, AND DELIVERIES, 1980-19841
1984 1983 1982 1981 1980
Reserves (demonstrated, 1000 tons) 98,236 100,589 102,551 105,894 114,116
Ore Milled (1000 tons) 531 700 N/A N/A N/A
Production (U308' 1000 pounds) 1,890 2,330 4,181 5,042 5,627
Average Market Price/lb of U308 $30.282 $ 27.29 $ 28.12 $ 28. 12 $.28.61
U308 Delivered (1000 pounds) 1,228 2,708 3,942 5,354 6,751
1Includes both data for both Qui vira 'vIIining Company and Sequoyah Fuels Corporation.
2Current year sales prices are not representative since they are primarily related to prior year
fixed price contracts.
N/ A = not available
Sources: AR 84a, AR 83a
38
-------
EXHffiIT 2-22:
HOMESTAKE MINING COMPANY URANIUM OPERATIONS
1982-1984
1984 1983 1982
Revenues (millions) $ 57.9 $ 58.6 $ 63.7
Operating Income (millions) $ 19.6 $ 11.4 $ 15.6
Sales of U 308 (million pounds) 1.130 1.130 N/A
Sales Price Per Pound of U 308 1 $ 51. 21 $ 49.76 $ 46.15
DepreciatiQn, Depletion, and $ 4.4 $ 14.3 $ 20.0
Amorti zation (millions)
Additions to Property, Plant, and $ .7 $ 0.0 $ 1.0
Equipment (millions)
Identifiable Assets (millions) $ 66.9 $ 73.0 $ 80.8
1Prices based on long-term contracts which expire in 1986 and 1987.
N/ A = not available.
Source: AR 84b
39
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capacity due to a significant amount of toll milling (AR 83b).1 The company closed one
mine in early 1985, and may soon place its mill on standby (PEl 85a).
Selected financial statistics on Rio Algom uranium operations are presented in Exhibit
2-23.
Plateau Resources Limited
Plateau Resources, a wholly owned subsidiary of Consumers Power Co., was organized
in 1976 to acquire, explore, and develop properties for the mining, milling, and sale of
uranium. All operations were suspended in 1984 because of depressed demand and
assets were written down by about $46 million after taxes, to an estimated net
realizable value of approximately $55 million. There is no assurance that the amount
will ever be realized however. The company's 800 ton per day mill at Ticaboo, Utah,
which was constructed in 1980 and 1981, has never been active (AR 84c).
Western Nuclear
Western Nuclear, a subsidiary of Phelps Dodge Corporation, owns two mine and mill
complexes, one in Wyoming and one in Washington. The capacities of its mills are 1700
and 2000 tons per day, respectively. The Wyoming mill has been on standby since the
early 1980's, and decommissioning is anticipated. The Washington complex operated
intermittently from 1981 through 1984. In late 1984, Phelps Dodge wrote off its entire
"Energy" operation, of which Western Nuclear is a major part. While the company
believes that nuclear power will ultimately have an important role in satisfying the
nation's energy needs, Phelps Dodge has suffered other financial losses that made it
necessary to dispose of operations that have uncertain prospects for near-term
profitability. Contracts to deliver 400 tons of uranium oxide in 1984 and 422 tons in
1985 were expected to be fulfilled primarily with purchases from the spot market
instead of new production. Exhibit 2-24 provides data on Phelps Dodge's U308
production and ore reserves, plus financial information on Phelps Dodge's "Energy"
operations, which include a gas and oil subsidiary in addition to uranium operations
(AR 83c, AR 84d).
l"Toll milling" is the processing of ore from another company's mines on a contract
basis.
40
-------
EXHmIT 2-23:
RIO ALGOM URANIUM OPERATIONS, 1981-1983
1983 1982 1981
Milll on $
Revenues 297.6 281.7 281.9
Operating Income 76.1 60.3 69.2
Capi tal Expenditures 87.8 13.7 17.3
Assets 752.9 427.8 372.1
Depreciation, Amortization 29.9 28.1 30.7
Tons U 3°8
Total Production 3,400 3,550 3,900
Canadian Production 3,233 NA NA
U.S. Production 167 NA NA
Source: AR 83b
41
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EXHIBIT 2-24:
PHELPS DODGE ENERGY OPERATIONS, 1981-1984a
1984b
1983
1982
1981
Million $
Depreciation, Amortization
na 25.4 34.8 89.5
na (10.8) (17.3) 10.3
na 1.6 5.3 9.8
na 156.5 154.2 168.8
na 5.3 3.4 7.7
Revenues
Operating Income
Capital Expenditures
Assets
Physical Quantities
U308 Production (Tons)
na
303
250
631
Ore Reserves (1000 Tons)
na
15,700
15,400
15,400
na = not available
aphelps-Dodge uranium operations are conducted through its subsidiary Western Nuclear.
Uranium operations are included in the "Energy" business segment in the annual reports.
Also in this segment is a gas and oil exploration subsidiary, but the annual report states
that the energy segment consists principally of uranium operations.
bThe company wrote off its entire investment in Energy operations in the fourth quarter
of 1984.
Sources: AR 83c, AR 84d.
42
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Rocky Mountain Enervy
Rocky Mountain Energy, a subsidiary of Union Pacific Corporation, owns a mine and
mill complex in Powder River Basin, Wyoming. In 1984, the company shipped 271 tons
of uranium oxide to Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric.
Because Union Pacific expects new opportunities for producers of U 308' uranium
exploration operations have continued, primarily in an area of northern Arizona where
high grade deposits are known to exist (AR 84e). The 2000 ton per day mill was inactive
in 1985, however, and decommissioning is anticipated (PEl 85a).
Financial statistics for Union Pacific's mining operations, which include large coal and
soda ash activities in addition to uranium, are provided in Exhibit 2-25a. Information on
reserves and production is presented in Exhi ti t 2-25b.
Other Producers
The above companies were the only producers publishing detailed information on
uranium operations. Limited information pertaining to other mill operators obtained,
either through annual reports or industry sources, follows:
.
The Cotter Corporation, a subsidiary of Commonwealth Edison Co., owns
three underground mines and a 1200 ton per day mill at Canon City,
Colorado. The mill and two of the mines have been on standby since
January 1985. As of December 31, 1984, Commonwealth Edison reported
assets of $212,135,000 in uranium related property, equipment, a.nd
acti vi ties (AR 84f).
.
Union Carbide owns several uranium mines and three uranium mills in
Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah. Maximum rated capacities of the mills are
1300, 1400, and 2000 tons per day. The company reported in its most
recent annual report that its uranium mines and mills operated below
capacity in 1984, although at higher rates than in 1983 (AR 84g). As of
September 1985, all three mills were on standby, but the largest mill, at
White Mesa, Utah, was reopened in October to meet a contract (PEl 85a).
.
Kennecott, a subsidiary of Standard Oil of Ohio, owns a 1650 ton per day
mill at Cebolleta, New Mexico. The mill has been inactive since the early
1980's (DOE 85a).
43
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EXHIBIT 2-25(a):
UNION PACIFIC MINING OPERATIONS:
FINANCIAL INFORMATION, 1981-1984
Million $ 1984 1983 1982 1981
- - - -
Revenues 168.0 189.0 165.4 179.1
Operating Income 63.0 67.0 48.2 48.6
Capital Expenditures 1.0 18.0 11.0 12.0
Assets 288.0 303.0 322.8 326.6
Depreciation, Amortization 5.0 7.0 8.6 3.0
EXHIBIT 2-25(b):
UNION PACIFIC
URANIUM RESERVES AND PRODUCTION
(1000 pounds of U 308)
Undeveloped
Interest in joint venture
Leased Properti es
19841 1983 1982 1981 1980
1,553 2,846 2,846 2,846 2,852
2,897 4,524 5,698 6,019 5,506
648 648 943 943 626
233 287 395 525 360
Reserves
--
Production
1
1984 reserves were adjusted downward by 34 percent to reflect future market
prospects.
Sources: AR 84e, AR 83d
44
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.
United Nuclear Corporation, a subsidiary of UNC Resources, Inc., has
historically been a major producer of uranium. However, since 1983 all
the company's mines have been on standby due to depressed market
conditions, as has its 4000 ton per day mill at Gallup, New Mexico. The
company has been filling its contract commitments with uranium pur-
chased from outside sources. Plans for 1985 call for complete elimination
of uranium operations (AR 84h).
.
Anaconda, a subsidiary of Atlantic Richfield Co., owns a 6000 ton per day
uranium mill at Grants, New Mexico. The mill has been on standby since
1982 (DOE 85a).
.
Chevron Chemical Company, a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation, owns a
2600 ton per day mill at Hobson, Texas. The mill was active thru 1984 but
in 1985 began only grinding alkaline rock to neutralize its tailings pool
(PEl 85a). The company expects that, although prices are now depressed,
uranium will be profitable in the future. Plans are underway to test
commercial production of uranium at Mt. Taylor, New Mexico in 1985
(AR 840.
.
Atlas Corporation owns four underground uranium mines and a 1400 ton
per day mill located in Moab, Utah. The mill operated at least part of the
year through 1984, but as of June 1985 was inactive (DOE 85a, JF A 85b).
.
Dawn Mining is a joint operation of Newmont Mining Corporation of New
York and Midnight Mining Company of Spokane, Washington. The
company owns a 600 ton per day mill near Ford, Washington. The mill has
been inactive since 1982 (DOE 85a, JF A 85b).
.
Pathfinder Mines owns five uranium mines and two uranium mills in
Wyoming. Both mills operated through 1984. As of October 1985, the
2500 ton per day mill at Gas Hills was on standby, but the 1800 ton per
day facility at Shirley Basin was active (PEl 85a, JF A 85b).
.
Minerals Exploration, a subsidiary of Union Oil, owns a 3000 ton per day
mill near Red Desert, Wyomil1g. The mill has been on standby since 1983
(DOE 85a, JF A 85b).
45
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AR 84a-i
AR 83a~
CO 85
CW 84
DOE 80
DOE 82
DOE 83
DOE 84a
DOE 84b
DOE 84c
DOE 85a
REFERENCES
Annual Reports for 1984 for Kerr-McGee Corporation, Homestake Mining
Company, Consumers Power Co., Phelps Dodge Corporation, Union
Pacific Corporation, Commonwealth Edison Co., Union Carbide, UNC
Resources, Inc., and Chevron Corporation.
Annual Reports for 1983 for Kerr-McGee Corporation, Rio Algom Corpo-
ration, Phelps Dodge Corporation, and Union Pacific Corporation.
Personal com munication, Colorado Department of Natural Resources,
Division of Mines, December 1985.
"For Uranium Producers, Far-Off Silver Linings," Chemical Week, April
11, 1984.
Department of Energy, Statistical Data of the Uranium Industry. GJO-
100 (80), 1980.
Department of Energy, Survey of United States Uranium Marketing
Activity. DOEjNE-001311, July 1982.
Department of Energy, World Uranium Supply and Demand: Impact of
Federal Policies. DOEjEIA-0387 (83), March 1983.
Department of Energy, Survey of United States Uranium Marketing
Activity 1983. DOEjEIA-0403 (83), August 1984.
Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry:
1983 Viability Assessment. Pre-publication release, December 1984.
Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power 1984: Prospects for
the United States and the World. DOEjEIA-0438 (84), November 1984.
Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry:
1984 Viability Assessment. DOEjEIS-0477, Septemb~r 1985.
46
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DOE 85b
DOE 85c
JF A 85a
JF A 85b
NM 85
Nugent 80
OECD 83
PEl 85a
PNL 84
TX 85
WY 80,81,
and 84
WA 85
Zi 79
REFERENCES - (continued)
Department of Energy, Uranium Industry Annual 1984.
0478(84), October 1985.
DOEjEIA-
Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power: Prospects for the
United States and the World. DOEjEIA-0438 (85), September 1985.
Jack Faucett Associates, Economic Profile of the
Industry. Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection
1985..
Uranium Mining
Agency, January
Jack Faucett Associates, com munications with uranium mill operators and
parent companies, June-October 1985.
Personal communication, Energy and Minerals Department,
Inspection Bureau, State of New Mexico, December 1985.
Mine
Nugent, J. W., "A Sum mary of Mineral Industry Activities in Colorado,
1980: Part II, Metal-Nonmental." Colorado Department of natural
Resources, Division of Mines.
Organization 'for Economic Cooperation and Development, Uranium:
Resources, Production, and Demand. Paris, December 1983.
PEl Associates, oral communication, August-October 1985.
Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratories, U.S. Uranium Mining Industry:
Background Information on Economics and Emissions, PNL-5035, March
1984.
Personal communication, Texas Railroad Commission, State of Texas,
December 1985.
Wyoming State Inspector of Mines, 1980, 1981, and 1984 annual reports.
Personal com munication, Department of Natural Resources, Division of
Geology and Earth Resources, State of Washington, December 1985.
Zimmerman,
Charles
F.,
Uranium
Resources
Federal
Lands.
on
Lexington, MA: Lexington Bo~Jp, 1979.
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CHAPTER 3:
PROFILE OF TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
AT LICENSED URANIUM MILLS
This chapter provides a profile of the status of existing tailings impoundments. The list
includes only those impoundments at existing licensed uranium mills. Impoundments at
mills which are currently decommissioned are not included. The information presented
in this chapter was developed as part of the Background Information Document
(EP A 86)prepared for this final rulemaking by PEl Associates, Inc. Data was collected
by contacting mill owners, through site visits, and aerial photographs. Information is
provided on forty-three existing impoundments of which thirty-eight are actual tailings
impoundments and five represent evaporation ponds.
Exhibit 3-1 provides summary information on the characteristics and areas of the
existing impoundments. The first column of the exhibit provides information on the
type of pile. A type one impoundment is one enclosed by dams and dikes (embankments)
constructed with sand tailings. A type two impoundment is one constructed using
earthen embankments. Type three impoundments are those constructed below grade.
Most existing tailings piles are of type two. The use of sand tailings for embankments
(type one) has been discouraged for some time and is no longer permitted. Only five
below-grade piles (at three sites) have been constructed as of this date.
The second column of Exhibit 3-1 provides the status of existing impoundments. Piles
of status "C" are those that are at capacity. Status "S" piles are on standby and status
"A" piles are currently active.
The areas of the existing impoundments are also given in Exhibit 3-1. Areas are given
in total and for ponded, wet and dry areas. The areas are important because only dry
areas are assumed to have substantial emissions of radon-222. The final column of
Exhibit 3-1 provides the average radium-226 content of the tailings. These data are
also used in the calculation of radon-222 emissions.
Exhibit 3-2 provides the emissions of radon-222 in kCi/year given current water
conditions. Current emissions are calculated using a flux factor of 1 pCi radon-222 per
m2 per second for 1 pCi radium-226 per gram concentration for dry tailings areas, and a
48
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EXHmIT 3-1
SUMMARY OF URANIUM "ILL TAILINGS PILES
aj bj
Sitel PUe Type of Stet us
PUe Totel
Co1oredo
Cotter Q)rp.
Primary 2 S 84 77 3 .. 780
5econdery 2 C 31 1 1 30 780
Umetoo
Ptle 1 & 2 1 C 66 0 .. 62 480
Ptle 3 1 C 32 0 3 29 480
SlidJe pHe 1 C 20 0 1 19 480
[yep. pond 1 C 17 0 2 15 480
New "extco
50010
l-Ber S 128 28 55 45 500
United Nucleer
Churchrock 5 148 7 76 65 290
Anecond8
B 1 ueweter 1 2 5 239 0 0 239 620
B 1 ueweter 2 2 C 47 0 0 47 620
B 1 ueweter 3 2 C 24 0 0 2.. 620
[yep. ponds 2 5 162 97 17 48 620
Kerr-McGee
QuIYlre 1 1 5 269 14 64 191 620
Quiylre 2e 1 S 105 10 35 60 620
Qulylre 2b 1 5 28 0 3 25 620
OUivlre 2c 1 S 30 0 4 26 620
[yep. ponds 2 5 372 268 10 95 620
Homestete
Homesteke 1 1 5 205 63 33 109 385
.Homesteke 2 2 C 44 4 0 36 385
T exes
Chevron
Penna Merle 2 S 124 68 20 36 196
Uteh
Umetoo
White Mese 3 S 48 7 7 34 350
White Mese 3 5 61 10 6 45 350
WhiteMese 3 S 53 39 0 14 350
49
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EXHIBIT 3-1 (Cont.)
SUI1f'WtYor URANIUM "ILL TAil"'. 'lltS
~/ Q./
Sttel PUe Type of Stetus
P11e Totel
RtoAIO'fn 2 38 560
R101 2 A 44 4
R102 2 A. 32 12 S 1S 560
A.t185
Moeb S 147 S4 4 90 540
P 1eteeu Res
Shooter 1no 2 S 7 2 .4 280
Weshtnaton
Dewn M1nlng 240
Ford 1 .2.3 2 C 95 0 0 95
Ford" 3 S 28 17 0 11 240
Western Nucl-
Sherwood 2 S 9.. 18 7 70 200
EYep. pond 2 S 16 16 0 0 200
Wyom..
Pathfinder
08s H111s 1 2 S 12.. 2 3 119 ..20
Oes H111s 2 2 C 5.. 2 12 40 "20
Oes H111s 3 2 S 22 19 2 2 420
Oes H111s" 2 S 89 73 .. 1 1 420
Western Nucl-
SpI1t Rock 2 S 156 94 19 43 "30
Umetco
E. 0Iss H111s 2 C 151 0 0 151 310
A-9 Pit 3 S 25 2 9 14 310
L~h psj} 2 S 22 0 0 22 310
Eyap ponds 2 S 20 20 0 0 310
Rocky Mounta1n Enerw
Bear Creek 2 S 121 ..5 23 S3 420
Pathf1 nder
Stt1r1~ Bestn 2 A 261 179 22 60 5..0
M1nera1s Exp.
Sweetwater 2 S 37 30 0 7 280
TOTALS 3882 1282 457 2143
~/Type of impoundment: 1 = dam constructed of coarse tailings; 2 = earthen dam;
3 = below grade. Q./Status of impoundment: A = active; S = standby (will be used when operations resume).
C = filled to capacity (will not be used again). '
50
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EXHIBIT 3-2:
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS
Company Pile
State Name Name kCi/y
Colorado Cotter Corp Primary 0.4
Secondary 3.0
Umetco Pile 1&2 3.8
Pile 3 1.8
Sludge Pile 1.2
Evap. Pond 0.9
New Mexico Sohio L-Bar 2.9
United Nuclear Churchrock 2.4
Anaconda Bluewater 1 18.9
Bluewater 2 3.7
Bluewater 3 1.9
Evap. Ponds 3.8
Kerr-McGee Qui vira 1 15.1
Qui vira 2a 4.7
Quivira 2b 2.0
Quivira 2c 2.1
Evap. Ponds 7.5
Homestake Homestake 1 5.4
Homestake 2 1.8
Texas Chevron Panna Maria 0.9
Utah Umetco White Mesa 1.5
White Mesa 2.0
White Mesa 0.6
Rio Algom Rio 1 2.7
Rio 2 1.1
Atlas Moab 6.2
Plateau Res. Shootaring 0.1
Washington Dawn Mining Ford 1,2,3 2.9
Ford 4 0.3
Western Nuclear Sherwood 1.8
Evap. Pond 0.0
Wyoming Pa thfinder Gas Hills 1 6.4
Gas Hills 2 2.1
Gas Hills 3 0.1
Gas Hills 4 0.6
Western Nuclear Spli t Rock 2.4
Umetco E. Gas Hills 6.0
A-9 Pit 0.6
Leach Pad 0.9
Evap. Ponds 0.0
Rock M t. Energy Bear Creek 2.8
Pathfinder Shirley Basin 4.1
Minerals Exp. Sweetwater 0.2
U.S. TOTAL 130
51
-------
flux of zero for ponded and wet areas. Emissions at existing impoundments range from
zero to 18.9 kCi/year.
Exhibit 3-3 summarizes the estimated fatal cancers which will result from existing
tailings impoundments under current water-cover conditions. The estimated fatal
cancers are calculated using emissions estimates discussed above and the EP A-A ffi DOS
computer code which uses a dispersion model and local site-specific population
estimates. A factor of 1.2 x 10-2 fatal cancers per kCi per year released is used to
generate national health effects estimates. This estimate was derived from Table 3-1
and the national risk on page 6-15 of EP A document number 520/1-83-008-1. Estimated
committed total cancers from existing tailings impoundments range from zero to 0.4
fatalities per year.
52
-------
EXHIBIT 3-3:
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL FATAL CANCERS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS
Committed
Company Pile Cancers
State Name Name Per Year
Colorado Cotter Corp Primary .01
Secondary .09
U metco Pile 1&2 .07
Pile 3 .03
Sludge Pile .02
Evap. Pond .02
New Mexico Sohio L-Bar .08
United Nuclear Churchrock .05
Anaconda Bluewater 1 .4
Bluewater 2 .09
Bluewater 3 .04
Evap. Ponds .09
Kerr-McGee Quivira 1 .3
Quivira 2a .08
Quivira 2b .04
Quivira 2c .04
Evap. Ponds .1
Homestake Homestake 1 .1
Homestake 2 .05
Texas Chevron Panna Maria .04
Utah Umetco White Mesa .02
White Mesa .03
White Mesa .008
Rio Algom Rio 1 .04
Rio 2 .02
Atlas Moab .1
Plateau Res. Shootaring .001
Washington Dawn Mining Ford 1,2,3 .03
Ford 4 .004
Western Nuclear Sherwood .03
Evap. Pond .0
Wyoming Pathfinder Gas Hills 1 .08
Gas Hills 2 .03
Gas Hills 3 .001
Gas Hills 4 .007
Western Nuclear Split Rock .03
Umetco E. Gas Hills .07
A-9 Pit .007
Leach Pad .01
Evap. Ponds .0
Rock Mt. Energy Bear Creek .04
Pathfinder Shirley Basin .05
Minerals Exp. Sweetwater .002
U.S. TOTAL 2.4
53
-------
EP A 86
REFERENCES
Environmental Protection Agency, Final Rule For Radon-222 Emissions
From Liscensed Uranium Mill Tailings - Background Information
Document. EPA 520/1-86-009.
54
-------
CHAPTER 4
FUTURE URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY ACTIVITY
The initial chapters of this report have described how the uranium milling industry has
developed over the past two decades, and where it stands today. The presentation
chronicles the large swings in production levels and capital investment and discusses the
volatile nature of the industry. In order to measure the potential environmental
damage that would be caused by this industry in the absence of regulation and to
estimate the added cost of new regulations affecting this industry, it is necessary to
develop a profile of how the industry will develop in the future.
Any projection of future production levels and work practices for the uranium milling
industry are highly uncertain due to the political nature of the product, defense
implications of domestic uranium production, public sensitivity to nuclear related
activities, abundant low-cost foreign supplies of uranium and the general difficulty of
developing forecasts for a long enough term to capture the full dynamics of this
industry as well as the related mill waste disposal process. Despite these and other
uncertainties, the future profile of this industry must be constructed in order to
understand the potential impacts of various regulatory alternatives.
In this chapter a baseline or reference case for the future of this industry is developed.
In order to establish a long enough time frame to capture mill and tailings impoundment
life cycles, the reference case includes all final cover costs and life cycle emissions
from existing impoundments and from those future impoundments that begin operation
over the next 100 years. Assumptions are developed on the future activity of existing
mills, the design and operating characteristics of newly constructed mills, the expected
life cycle of all mills and tailings impoundments, the emissions and fatal lung cancers
from existing and future mill sites, and the cost of achieving final stabilization of these
impoundments.
The following sections present the elements of this baseline. In the subsequent analysis
of alternative regulatory activities (Chapter 6), each of the key assumptions made in
order to develop this baseline are tested to determine their importance in the analysis
of regulatory alternatives.
55
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4.1 PROJECTIONS OF DOMESTIC URANIUM PRODUCTION
In this section, two sets of projections are developed of total domestic uranium
production and of domestic production from conventional sources for use in subsequent
analyses. The projections are developed for the 101-year time period 1985-2085 and
consist of two components: near-term projections, through the year 2000; and long-
term scenarios, covering 2001-2085. The long-term components are referred to as
"scenarios" to emphasize the relatively conjectural nature of any set of projections for
such an extended timeframe. These scenarios presume that, during the next 100 years,
there is no technological breakthrough which permits either a cessation in the
construction of new uranium-fueled nuclear power plants or a vast reduction in the
uranium requirements for nuclear power (as would result from the development of a
breeder reactor).
The two sets of projections consist of one set of moderately low projections and one set
of moderately high projections. For the purposes of subsequent analyses, these two sets
will be referred to as the "reference" case and the "alternate" case, respectively,
though these names are not intended to imply any difference in the perceived
reasonableness of the two sets of projections.
4.1.1 Near-Term Projections
Total domestic production of U308 and domestic production from conventional uranium
sources for 1980-1984 are shown in tabular form in Exhibit 4-1 along with reference-
case and alternate~ase projections of these two categories of production for the period
1985-2000. The projections of total domestic production during 1990-2000 are taken
from recently published DOE low-demand and middle-demand projections for domestic
production under free market conditions (DOE 85c, pp. 147-148). Projected 1985
production shown in the exhibit has been adjusted from the DOE projections, developed
in early 1985, to reflect the latest available information on mill operations. 1 This
10nly two mills (Rio Algom and Pathfinder/Shirley Basin) have operated the entire year.
Three mills (Ch~vron, Co.tter and Petrotomics) were operating at the beginning of 1985,
but closed durmg the fIrst half of the year, while one mill (UMETCO/White Mesa)
reopened in October.
56
-------
EXHIBIT 4-1:
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U308' 1980-2000
(Short Tons)
Re~erence Case Alternate Case
Total Conventional Total Conventional
1980 21.852 18.600 21.852 18.600
1981 19.237 15.100 19.237 15.100
1982 13.414 10.119 13.414 10.119
1983 10.579 7.474 10.579 7.474
1984 7.441 4.618 7.441 4.618
1985 4.350 1.800 4.350 1.800
1986 4.350 1.800 4.450 1.900
1987 4.300 1.850 4.550 2.000
1988 4.300 1.850 4.750 2.200
1989 4.350 1.900 4.950 2.400
1990 4.350 1.900 5.150 2.600
1991 4.350 1.900 5.300 2.700
1992 4.600 2.100 5.350 2.750
1993 4.950 2.450 5.050 2.550
1994 5.250 2.650 5.100 2.600
1995 5.450 2.800 5.750 3.100
1996 5.750 3.000 6.650 3.800
1997 6.050 3.200 7.550 4.500
1998 6.300 3.400 8.150 4.950
1999 6.450 3.500 8.450 5.150
2000 6.550 3.600 8.600 5.250
Sources: 1980-1984 and total production in 1990-2000:
DOE 85c. pp. 147-148:
1985-1989: see text.
57
-------
information indicates that mill output in 1985 is likely to be only about 1800 short tons
(down from 4618 tons in 1984). To be consistent with this sharp reduction in
conventional production, we estimate total domestic production in 1985 to be 4350 tons
(800 tons below the DOE figure developed earlier this year). Our reference~ase
projections for 1986-1989 were obtained by assuming a slight dip in production to 4300
tons (in 1987 and 1988) followed by a return to 4350 tons, which is DOE's low-
-------
than conventional producers, and so production from non conventional sources tends to
be less affected by the recent decline in uranium prices. Indeed, production from the
largest category of nonconventional sources, byproduct production, is virtually indepen-
dent of uranium prices (and has actually risen from about 1300 tons in 1981 to about
1650 tons in 1984). The primary source of byproduct U308 is wet-process production of
phosphoric acid; other sources are copper waste dumps (a source which can be affected
by uranium prices) and beryllium ores. The second significant non conventional source is
in situ leaching, which yielded about 2100 tons of U308 in 1981 and about 1000 tons in
1984. Other less important sources include mine water and heap leaching; 255 tons of
U308 were obtained from these sources in 1984.
The projections of domestic U 308 production from conventional sources shown in
Exhibit 4-1 were derived by JFA from the projections of total production by assuming
that conventional sources would continue to be more affected by changes in the market
than unconventional sources. Accordingly, conventional production is projected to
decline from 4618 tons in 1984 (62 percent of total production) to 1800 tons in 1985
(41 percent of total production) before beginning to increase gradually in both total
volume and percentage of production.
The low-demand and middle-demand DOE projections of domestic U 308 production
through the year 2000 are the only recently published projections of domestic uranium
production.1 These projections are based on a unit-by-unit review of nuclear power
plants that are now operating or under construction. Under DOE's middle-demand case,
nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase from 71 OWe in 1984 to 117 OWe in
1993, and then to decline slightly to 116 OWe in the year 2000. Under the low-demand
case, DOE estimates that about 10 OWe of new capacity currently on order will be
canceled, resulting in a peak capacity of 107.5 OWe in 1992 followed by a slight decline
to 106.4 OWe in the year 2000. Both sets of projections assume no reactors which have
not already been ordered will come on-line by the year 2000, and the low-demand
uranium production projections further assume no new .orders through 2010.
1Short-term and long-term projections of United States uranium production capability
have also been published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop-
ment in 1983 (OECD 83, pp. 316 and 318). These projections show production capability
rising from 10,300 metric tonnes in 1984 to 14,000-18,700 tonnes in 1995 and 9400-
20,000 tonnes in 2005. Presuming that production during the short-term would be
limited by capability and not by demand (as actually appears to be the case), OECD
projects that resource depletion will result in a substantial decline in production
capability after 2005, falling to 2500-3700 tonnes in 2025.
59
-------
The two sets of projections of nuclear generating capacity underlying DOE's uranium
production are shown graphically in Exhibit 4-2, along with three sets of DOE
projections of total generating capacity through 1995 (which is as far as currently
available DOE projections of total generating capacity go). DOE also has developed a
high set of projections of nuclear generating capacity (but not of uranium production);
the high projections differ only slightly from the middle projections and are not shown
in the exhibit. The three sets of total generating capacity projections shown in Exhibit
4-2 represent three of the five sets of such projections developed by DOE; the
remaining projections, which presume either higher or lower real increases in fuel
prices in the post-1990 period, have been omitted from the exhibit to avoid clutter. All
DOE projections of total generating capacity incorporate the middle-case projections of
nuclear generating capacity.
The Exhibit 4-1 historic data and reference-case projections for total domestic uranium
production and domestic production from conventional sources are shown graphically in
Exhibit 4-3. The latter exhibit also shows historic data and projections of total
enrichment feed deliveries, net change in U308 inventories, and net imports. With the
exception of 1985-1989 net imports, these last three series are taken from DOE's low-
demand projections (DOE 85c, pp. 148, 150 and 152); the level of net imports shown in
the exhibit for 1985-1989 are slightly higher than DOE's low~emand projections
because of our downward adjustment of total domestic production.
Exhibit 4-4 shows plots of corresponding values for our alternate-case projections of
domestic uranium production and for projections of total enrichment feed deliveries,
net change in U308 inventories, and net imports obtained from DOE's middle~emand
projections of these quantities (DOE 85c, pp. 147, 149 and 151) in the same fashion as
the plots in Exhibit 4-3. The middle~emand projections of total enrichment feed
deliveries for 1985-1994 were obtained by DOE directly from utility estimates of feed
deliveries. DOE also developed their own projections of enrichment feed deliveries for
1985-2000, but used these projections only for developing production estimates for
1995-2000. The DOE projections for 1985-1994 show less year-to-year fluctuation and
are generally somewhat lower than the utility estimates (which are the ones shown in
Exhibit 4-4).
60
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EXHIBIT 4-2:
PROJECTED ELECTRICITY-GENERATION CAPACITY
GWe
80
Electric Utility Capacity -
Low, Medium and High Economic Growth Cases
60
50
40
30
20
Nuclear Power Generation Capacity
- Low and Medium Cases
100
198 1990 1 95 2000
Sources: DOE 85a, pp. 215, 235 and 255; and DOE 85c, pp. 28-29.
61
-------
26
24
22
Total Demand
20 I (Utility Enrichment Feed Deliveries)
18
16 Total Supply
r\
VI VI
(1)
0 ( 14
r- 0
+J'"
L ) 12
0 0
II
UJr-
v
10
8 Net Imports
6
4 Nonconventional Production
..
2
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
EXHIBIT 4-3:
SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY:
1980-1984 AND REFERENCE CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
Year
Sources: Exhibit 3.1 and DOE 85c, pp. 148, 150 and 152.
62
-------
,"',
UJ VI
CD
o C
I- 0
+- UI
L ]
o 0
II
(J)I-
v
EXHIBIT 4-4:
SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY:
1980-1984 AND ALTERNATIVE-CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
26 '
--------------------~-------_._--- - -....
24
1
I
Total Demand 1
(Utility Enrichment Feed Deliveries) ~ i/~
/'" ,/ I
fA, . '\ // :1
" J \ / I
\ /1' \ ,/ / I
I \ / I \------------_/ / !
/ V Net I
Inventory , ,/-~---..// I
Reduction /// ,
/---1~/ ~Total SUpply I
I
i
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
22 ~
"-\,
20 \-,-"" \
18 \ \ \
16 \ \ I /
\ \ /
\ \J /
\\/
\ ;'
, I
\/
\
'\,
\
\...~
'--"',,/'
14
12
Net Imports
10
8
6
4
2
o I
1980
\ Total Domestic --
\ \ I Production ,)-///
\ \ //
\ \ ----r~_/ //~
Conventional Production --
-.- 1
I' - I
1 r -- r
d'1J
"r--n
bJJu
1r~\Y
I jtj:J
1 (\11 i)
I 1"111
Year
Sources: Exhibit 3.1 !!rlO D0f: ~5c. J'.
- -, ,-.. - 'c ,-. i ')!.
63
-------
The increase in enrichment feed deliveries shown in Exhibit 4-4 for the 1997-2000
period reflect DOE's middle-demand case assumption that nuclear generating capacity
will begin to increase significantly in 2001. Although this assumption may not be
appropriate, it does not appear to have a significant effect on DOE's projections of
domestic U308 production during this time period, and so DOE's projections were
accepted for this time period without modification.
4.1.2 Long-Term Scenarios
In this section, long-term scenarios of total domestic production of U308 and of
domestic production from conventional uranium sources are presented and discussed.
The discussion includes a comparison of total domestic uranium production under the
two scenarios during 1985-2085 to estimated domestic resources and a discussion of the
relationship of projected domestic uranium production in 2085 to the implications for
electricity generated in that year from this source and from other sources.
The Scenarios
Reference-case and alternate-case scenarios of total domestic production of U308 and
of domestic production from conventional uranium sources for 2000-2085 are shown in
tabular form in Exhibit 4-5. The two scenarios of total production were obtained by
assuming annual growth rates of 1.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the
first twenty years of this period and then a gradual reduction of four percent per year
in the growth rates for the remainder of the period. It can be seen from the exhibit
that, by 2085, annual uranium production under both scenarios will have nearly leveled
off. The projected production levels of 11,961 and 28,499 tons in 2085 under the two
scenarios may be compared to actual production of 21,900 tons in 1980, when the
historic peak in production was set.
The annual growth rates of 1.4 and 2.8 percent in total domestic uranium production used
during 2000-2020 are identical to the average annual growth rates obtained during this
period in DOE's 1984 low-case and middle-case projections of installed nuclear capacity
(DOE 84a, p. 19) and lower than the corresponding 1. 5 and 3.9 percent growth rates
64
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EX HIBIT 4-5:
POST-2000 PROJECTIONS OF
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U30S
(Short Tons)
Reference Case Alternate Case
Total Conventional Total Conventional
2000 6.550 3.600 8.600 5.250
2005 7.022 3.954 9.873 6.205
2010 7.527 4.333 11.335 7.301
2015 8.069 4.739 13.014 8.560
2020 8.650 5.175 14.940 10.005
2025 9.223 5.605 16.974 11.530
2030 9.720 6.052 18.839 13.209
2035 10.144 6.434 20.514 14.717
2040 10.505 6.758 21.992 16.047
2045 10.808 7.031 23.278 17.204
2050 11.062 7.260 24.382 18.198
2055 11.274 7.451 25.322 19.044
2060 11.450 7.609 26.116 19.759
2065 11.595 7.739 26.782 20.358
2070 11.715 7.847 27.338 20.859
2075 11.813 7.936 27.800 21.274
2080 11.894 8.009 28.183 21.619
2085 11.961 8.069 28.499 21.903
65
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obtained in the 1985 DOE projections1 (DOE 85b, p.22). It should be observed, however,
that our growth rates represent growth in domestic production of uranium and not
installed nuclear capacity, and so our two scenarios do not necessarily correspond to 1.4
and 2.8 percent growth rates in nuclear capacity. Factors which might cause nuclear
capacity to grow at a different rate than domestic uranium production include: a
change in the percentage of uranium imported (from the 61 percent and 67 percent
levels projected in the year 2000); improved reactor efficiency or enrichment-plant
efficiency; the use of higher fuel burnup levels; and spent-fuel reprocessing.
Considering these factors, as well as constraints on resource availability (discussed in
the following subsection), it is our belief that the 1.4 and 2.8 percent rates of increase
in domestic uranium production are appropriate for use in a moderately low scenario
and a moderately high scenario, respectively.
In addition to the DOE low-case and middle-case projections of installed nuclear
capacity discussed above, DOE has developed projections for a high case and a no-new-
orders case. DOE's 1984 and 1985 high-case projections have average annual growth
rates during 2000-2020 of 5.2 and 5.9 percent, respectively. During the same period, as
1The higher growth rates obtained in the 1985 DOE projections appear to result from an
inconsistent set of parameter modifications made by DOE between the 1984 and 1985
runs of the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES). This system (DOE
85b, pp. 90-95) requires several user-specified parameter values, including the growth
rate in real aggregate energy prices and the rate at which the nuclear share of
electrical generation approaches in exogenously specified asymptote.
Continued softness in the price of fossil fuels makes it likely that energy price
increases during the 2000-2020 time period will be lower than previously expected, and
that the eventual shift to nuclear energy will be slower than previously expected.
Accordingly, between the 1984 and 1985 WINES runs, DOE reduced the values assigned
to both the real energy-price growth rate and the rate at which the nuclear share of
electrical generation approaches its asymptote. The first of these changes results in a
substantial increase in projected energy consumption, electricity consumption, and
nuclear power generated; while the second change tends to slow or, if large enough, to
reverse the increase in nuclear power generated (at least during 2000-2020). It appears
likely that if real growth in fossil-fuel prices remains moderate, as now forecast, the
rate at which the nuclear share of electrical generation increases will be substantially
lower than assumed by DOE in the 1985 WINES run. We believe that, if a better
representation of the rate at which the nuclear share of electrical generation grows
during 2000-2020 had been used in the 1985 WINES run, the system would have produced
nuclear generating capacity growth rates which are similar to or lower than those
produced in the 1984 WINES runs.
66
-------
a result of retirements, the ncrnew-orders case shows a sharp 60 aWe drop in installed
nuclear capacity, starting from 109 aWe or 106 aWe (in the 1984 and 1985 reports,
respectively) (DOE 84a, pp. 19 and 21; DOE 85b, pp. 22 and 24). DOE's projections of
nuclear generation and installed nuclear capacity extend only as far as 2020. These
projections and the OECD projections of uranium-production capability (OECD 83,
discussed in an earlier footnote) are the only projections we have been able to find
which extend beyond the year 2000 and which relate to uranium production or nuclear
generation.
The projections of domestic production from conventional sources shown in Exhibit 4 5
were obtained by assuming that nonconventional sources would account for 25 percent
of the increase in total production through the year 2025 and ten percent of the
increase in subsequent years. By way of comparison, reduction in production from
nonconventional sources accounted for about ten percent of the decline in production
during 1980-1984. Increases in production from nonconventional sources are expected
to be provided primarily from byproduct production and, as a result of continuing
technological advances, from in situ leaching.
The primary source of byproduct production of U 308 is from wet-process production of
phosphoric acid. At a selling price of ~.bout $60 per pound (in 1985 dollars), potential
U308 production from this source would currently be about 6000 tons (De 79); though,
as a result of depletion of phosphate resources, this potential is expected to decline
over time, to 5000 tons in 2000, 4600 tons in 2025, and presumably to lower values in
subsequent years. Since prices are only expected to recover to about $50 per pound by
the end of the century (DOE 85c, pp. 143-144), production from this source is likely to
remain below maximum potential until well into the next century. The post-2025
decline assumed in the nonconventional-production growth rate reflects an expected
gradual decline in phosphat~byproducts U308 production after the maximum potential
production rate is attained.
Historic and projected total and conventional domestic uranium production for the
1980-2085 period, from Exhibits 4-1 and 4-5, are shown graphically in Exhibit 4-6.
Exhibit 4-7 shows total production by five-year period and for the full 100-year period:
1986-2085.
67
-------
30
28
26
24
22
20
r\ 18
~ ~
CD
0 C 16
I- 0
+J .,
L ) 14
0 0
II
VII- 12
'J
10
8
6
4
2
0
1980 2000
EXHmrr 4-6:
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U308' 1980-2085
(Historic, 1980-1984; Projected, 1985-2085)
-l
--Alternate Case -
Total
. Reference Case
.. Conventional
2020
2~0
2(E0
2040
Year
68
-------
EXHmIT 4-7:
PROJECfED TOTAL DOMESTIC PROJ?UCfION OF U30S
(Short Tons)
Reterence Case Alternate Case
Total Conventional Total Conventional
1986 - 90 21.650 9.300 23.850 11.100
1991 - 95 24.600 11.900 26.550 13.700
1996 - 00 31.100 16.700 39.400 23.650
2001 - 05 34.151 19.051 46.750 29.062
2006 - 10 36.610 20.895 53.672 34.254
2011 - 15 39.245 22.872 61.618 40.214
2016 - 20 42.071 24.990 70.742 47.056
2021 - 25 45.001 27.188 80.862 54.646
2026 - 30 47.635 29.392 90.537 62.754
2031 - 35 49.899 31.lL30 99.300 70.6lLO
2036 - 40 51.827 33.16lL 107.085 77.6lL6
2041 - 45 53.455 3lL.630 113.893 83.774
2046 - 50 54.821 35.859 119.772 89.064
2051 - 55 55.962 36.886 124.79lL 93.585
2056 - 60 56.910 37.739 129.049 97.414
2061 - 65 57.695 38.445 132.628 100.635
2066 - 70 58.343 39.029 135.621 103.329
2071 - 75 58.877 39.509 138.113 105.571
2076 - 80 59.316 39.905 140.179 107.431
2081 - 85 59.677 40.229 141.887 108.968
1986-2085 938.846 589.113 1.876.300 1.354.lL91
69
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Discussion
This section compares our scenarios for domestic production of U30S' presented above,
to total domestic uranium resources and discusses the relationship of the projections to
total electricity generation.
Domestic Uranium Resources
The projections of domestic U30S production shown in Exhibit 4-7 (above) indicate that
between 0.9 and 1.9 million tons of U30S will be produced domestically over the next
100 years. , Over this time period, perhaps 200,000 to 300,000 tons may be obtained as a
byproduct of mining of other minerals, with the remainder obtained from domestic
mining of U30S. A discussion of the potential for byproduct production of U30S is
presented below, followed by a discussion of the extent of other domestic U30S
resources.
Byproduct Production
The most significant domestic source of byproduct uranium is phosphate mining and
processing. As indicated above, a 1979 DOE study (De 79) estimated that, by 19S5,
6000 tons of U30S could be produced annually as a byproduct of wet-process production
of phosphoric acid at a selling price of $40 per pound (1979 dollars), but that such
production would decline gradually to 4600 tons by 2025. Presumably, potential
production from this source will continue to decline after 2025. Since the average
contract price for U30S is now only about $23 per pound (in current dollars) and is not
expected to reach the required level until after the end of the century (DOE S5c, pp.
143-144), current production from this source is only about one-fourth of the indicated
potential and is likely to remain below this potential for some time. However, over the
full 100-year period, a substantial amount of U30S is likely to be obtained from this
source, perhaps as much as 200,000 tons in the reference-case scenario and 300,000 tons
in the alternate-case scenario. In addition, over this time frame, there may be some
potential for a technological breakthrough which would make it economically feasible
to obtain byproduct U 308 from phosphate rock which is used for purposes other than
the production of phosphoric acid.
70
-------
Other potential sources of byproduct uranium are: copper waste dumps; the red mud
obtained when alumina is removed from bauxite; and the beryllium ores of west~entral
Utah. A modest amount of U30S is currently being obtained from copper produced in
Utah and Arizona, and DOE estimated in 19S0 (DOE SO, p. 117) that 500 to 1000 tons of
byproduct U30S could be obtained annually from copper ores. DOE also estimated at
that time that a few hundred tons per year of byproduct U30S could be obtained from
red mud and that 17 tons per year would be obtained from beryllium ores when an
already installed circuit to recover uranium is put into operation.
Other Domestic Resources
The top half of Exhibit 4-S shows DOE estimates of the total "endowment" of domestic
U30S resources. The "endowment" is defined as all U30S contained in deposits
containing at least 0.01 percent (100 ppm) of U30S. The resource estimates shown in
the top half of this exhibit are grouped by resource category and by "forward cost of
recovery". The four resource categories used in the DOE publication which is the
primary source (DOE S4c) for the information in the exhibit are those used by the
International Atomic Energy Agency and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency:
.
Reasonably Assured Resources refers to uranium in known mineral
deposits which' could be recovered within given production cost ranges
using currently proven technology (and corresponds to DOE's Reserves
category).
.
Estimated Additional Resources Category I refers to additional uranium
expected to occur in extensions of well-explored deposits and in other
deposits in which geological continuity has been established.
.
Estimated Additional Resources Category II refers to additional uranium
expected to occur in deposits believed to exist in well-defined geological
trends or areas of mineralization with known deposits. (The two cate-
gories of Estimated Additional Resources, together, correspond to DOE's
Probable Potential Resources category.)
.
Speculative Resources refers to uranium which is thought to exist, mostly
on the basis of indirect evidence and geological extrapolations (and
corresponds to DOE's Possible Potential and Speculative Potential
Resource categories).
71
-------
Forward Cost of Recovery
$ 0 - $30/lb
$31 - $60/lb.
$51 - 100/lb.
-.;J
N
Total of Above
Over $100/lb.
Total
EXHIBIT 4-8:
DOMESTIC URANIUM RESOURCES
Endowment1
(thousands of short tons of U308)
Reasonably
Assured
180
390
315
885
Resource Category
Estimated Additional
Category I Category II
42 630
72 440
100 605
214 1675
Speculative
540
460
620
1620
Total
1392
1362
1640
4394
30563
74502
Sources
1
DOE 84c, pp. 24-26, except as noted.
2DOE 80, pp. 116-118.
3Estimated from data in above sources.
Other Significant (but low~rade) Resources2
Marine Phosphorites
4 million tons
Chattanooga Shale
Gassaway Member
Dowelltown Member
5 million tons (55-70 ppm)
no info.
Seawater
5 billion tons (3-4 ppb)
See text.
-------
The "forward cost of recovery" of uranium resources represents estimates of most
future costs of mining, processing and marketing U30S' exclusive of return on capital.
These estimates include the costs of transportation, environmental and waste manage-
ment, construction of new operating units and maintenance of all operating units,
future exploration and development costs, and appropriate indirect costs such as those
for office overhead, taxes and royalties.
The top half of Exhibit 4-S shows estimates of all U30S resources having a forward cost
of recovery of no more than $100 per pound (19S3 estimates) grouped by resource
category plus one additional estimate of resources in the endowment having a cost of
recovery of over $100 per pound. This latter estimate was derived by taking a set of
19S0 estimates (DOE SO, pp. 33-113) of the total endowment in DOE's Probable,
Possible and Speculative Potential Resource categories and subtracting Exhibit 4-S
estimates of the quantity of reserves in these three categories1 having forward costs of
recovery no greater than $100 per pound. This procedure corrects for changes in
estimated forward cost of recovery between the 19S0 and 19S4 sources, but it does not
correct for any additions or deletions which may have occurred to estimated resources
in the three categories.
In addition to estimated U30S resources in the endowment, there are some large lower
grade U30S resources. The most significant of these are Chattanooga Shale deposits,
seawater, and the marine phosphorites from which (as discussed in the preceding
subsection) U30S is currently being obtained as a byproduct of phosphoric acid
production. It is estimated that the Gassaway Member of Chattanooga Shale is 55 to 70
ppm U30S and contains about'5 million tons of U30S (as well as larger amounts of
vanadium, ammonia, sulfur and oil) (MSR 7S); the Dowelltown Member lies beneath the
Gassaway Member and is about the same thickness (fifteen feet) but is not further
described in the DOE source (DOE SO, p. 116).
Seawater represents a huge, very low-grade source of uranium, averaging 3 to 4 parts
per billion and containing perhaps five billion tons of U30S. Using very optimistic
assumptions, the cost of recovery using current technology has been estimated to be
1 As indicated above, DOE's Probable, Possible and Speculative Potential Resource
categories correspond, as a group, to the two Estimated Additional Resource categories
and the Speculative Resource category used in Exhibit 5.
73
-------
$1400 per pound of U308' th
-------
Total Electricity Generation
Corresponding to each of the domestic U308 production scenarios for 2085 are a range
of possible projections of total electricity consumption. One end of this range
represents the situation in which nearly all electricity is obtained from conventional
fission (i.e., from U235) and uranium imports continue to be limited. In this situation,
perhaps as much as one quarter of all electricity is derived from conventional fission of
domestically produced uranium. The percentage of electricity may be lower than this
as a result of greater use of imported uranium or as a result of greater use of
electricity from alternative sources; e.g., coal or solar. (In developing our scenarios,
we have assumed that there would be no technological breakthrough which permits
either a cessation or a substantial reduction in the construction of new uranium-fueled
nuclear power plants. Under various assumptions, the percentage of electricity derived
from conventional fission of domestically produced uranium might be as low as two
percent (or lower if any significant technological breakthrough occurs).
A range of projections of total electricity consumption in 2085 is presented in Exhibit
4-9. The projections correspond to the previously presented reference-case and
alternate-case scenarios for domestic U 308 production under the assumptions that 2, 5,
10 or 25 percent of electricity is derived from domestic uranium sources. The
projections presume tha:t 31 million KWh (net) of electricity are generated per ton of
U308 (DOE 84d, pp. 76-77), and thus they presume that there is no significant increase
in reactor or enrichment-plant efficiency; to the extent that such e.fficiency improve-
ments may occur, the projections in Exhibit 3.9 should be revised upwards.
The projections shown in Exhibit 4-9 indicate that between 1.5 and 17.7 trillion KWh of
electricity will be produced in 2085. The more extreme values in this range, however,
represent relatively unlikely combinations of scenarios. A high percentage of elec-
tricity from domestic U235 sources, for example, would mean a relatively high reliance
on domestic uranium and would probably result in sufficient increases in uranium prices
to warrant use of higher-cost domestic uranium resources, as would occur under the
alternate~ase scenario. Conversely a low percentage of electricity from domestic
U235 sources would mean more effective competition from other fuel sources (imported
uranium, coal, etc.) and possibly the development of new electricity sources (e.g.,
fusion or the breeder reactor, though, by assumption, the development of these new
75
-------
EXHIBIT 4-9:
PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
IN 2085 UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS
(trillions of KWh, net)
Percent of
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
Domestic U308 Production Scenario
Reference Case
Alterna te Case
596
1.5 3.5
3.7 8.8
7.4 17.7
(*)
2596
1096
Approximate Number
of 1 GWe Units
Supported by
Domestic U-235
60
150
N.B.
These projections presume current reactor and enrichment-feed technology
(See text).
(*)
The most likely projections are those inside the box.
76
-------
sources would not result in a significant reduction in the number of U235 power plants
during the 100-year time period); under these circumstances, uranium prices would rise
less and we would be less likely to tap the higher-cost resources which would be used
under the alternate-case scenario.
In the light of the above discussion, the most likely projections of 2085 electricity
consumption are those shown in the diagonal box in Exhibit 4-9. These projections
suggest that between 3.5 and 8.8 trillion KWh of electricity will be consumed in 2085 (in
comparison to the 2.3 trillion KWh consumed in 1984 (DOE 85d, p.77».
In addition to the projections of electricity consumption, Exhibit 4-9 also shows the
approximate number of one aWe nuclear power-plant units which would be supported by
domestically produced U235 under each of the uranium-production scenarios (assuming
a 66 percent average utilization rate). Approximately 60 units would be supported
under the reference-case scenario and 150 units under the alternate-case scenario. It
should be observed that a substantial (but undetermined) number of additional units
would be supported by imported U235.
Projected average annual rates of change in electricity consumption were obtained
from the Exhibit 4-9 projections for 2085 and from DOE's projection of 2.32 trillion
KWh for 1985 (DOE 85a, p. 214). The results are presented in Exhibit 4-10. Thes8
results range from an average decline of 0.4 percent per year to an average increase of
2.1 percent per year. For the most likely scenarios (those in the diagonal box), modest
increases of 0.4 to 1.3 percent per year are indicated.
It is also possible to express the rates of change in electricity consumption on a per
capita basis using any of several projections of population growth. The U.S. Bureau of
the Census has recently published three series of population projections for the United
States through the year 2080 (Cen 84). The middle series shows population growing
from 232 million in 1982 to an essentially static 311 million in 2080. The lowest series
shows population peaking at 263 million in 2017 and declining to 191 million in 2080; and
the highest series shows population climbing to 531 million in 2080 (and increasing at a
0.7 percent annual rate during the last five years of this time period).
Using the middle series population projections, the United States population will rise
from 232 million in 1982 to about 311 million in 2085. The average annual rate of
77
-------
Percent
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
25%
10%
5%
(*)
EXHIBIT 4-10:
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE
IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085
Domestic U308 Production Scenario
Reference Case
Alternate Case
(*)
-0.4
+0.4
+0.5
+1.3
+1.2
j
+2.1
The most likely projections are those inside the box.
78
-------
population increase over this time period is 0.285 percent (though the actual rate of
increase is initially much higher and declines to zero by the end of the period). Using
this population series yields the projected average annual per capita rates of change in
electricity consumption shown in Exhibit 4-11. These figures are just 0.285 percent
smaller than the corresponding figures shown in Exhibit 4-10, and they range from a 0.7
percent annual decline to a 1.8 percent annual increase. For the most likely scenarios
(those in the diagonal box), modest average annual increases of 0.1 to 1.1 percent are
projected in per capita electricity consumption.
4.2 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Exhibit 4-12 lists employment projections from 1985 to 2085 for the uranium milling
industry. Projections are provided for the reference case and alternate case described
earlier in this chapter. The reference case shows employment growing steadily from
1991 to 2085 after a relatively stagnant period from 1985 to 1991. The alternate case
shows employment growing through 1992, declining steadily in 1993 and resuming
growth thereafter.
The projections were developed in the following manner. Output-per-person-year was
used as a measure of productivity. Data for this variable were obtained by dividing
total annual uranium concentrate production from 1967 to 1984 by each year's total
employment measured in person years, then averaging the results for the period
(DOE 85e). The resulting productivity factor, 6.88 short tons per person-year, was then
divided into the production forecasts summarized in Exhibit 4-7, "Total Domestic
Production of U308: 1984-2085." Average historical productivity was considered
suitable for use in projecting future employment because no technological changes in
uranium processing that might affect mill productivity are expected.
4.3 DEVELOPMENT OF THE BASELINE
Chapter 3 presented data on the status of all existing impoundments. Many of the mills
where these impoundments are located have been operating for over 25 years and have
only limited remaining useful life. The acid-leach milling process utilized in this
industry is a hostile environment for most machinery. While no definitive data are
available on the expected remaining useful lives of the existing mills, it is assumed for
this analysis that none of these facilities would be able to operate economically after
the year 2000. Thus new mills and impoundments would have to be constructed on
current mill sites or on new sites to meet the production scenarios developed in Section
79
-------
EX HIBIT 4-11:
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE
IN PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085
Domestic U308 Production Scenario
Percent of
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
Reference Case
Alternate Case
25%
-0.7
+0.1
, (*)
10%
+0.2
+1.1
5%
+0.9
I
+1.8
(*)
The most likely projections are those inside the box.
80
-------
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
.1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
20~9
2020
2021
,2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
EXHIBIT 4-12:
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS:
(Person- Years)
Reference
Case
262
262
269
269
276
276
276
305
356
385
407
436
465
494
509
523
533
543
554
564
575
585
596
607
618
630
641
653
665
677
689
701
714
726
739
752
765
778
791
803
815
828
842
855
867
880
891
903
914
925 81
1985-2085
Alternate
Case
262
276
291
320
349
378
392
400
371
378
451
552
654
719
749
763
789
816
844
873
902
932
963
995
1028
1061
1096
1131
1168
1206
1244
1284
1325
1361
1410
1454
1500
1545
1589
1633
1616
1121
1116
1825
1813
1920
1966
2011
2055
2091
-------
EXHIBIT 4-12:
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 1985-2085 - (Continued)
(Person- Years)
Reference
Case
Alternate
Case
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
20411
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
2072
2073
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
935
9115
955
964
974
982
991
999
1007
1015
1022
1029
1036
1043
1049
1055
1061
1067
1072
1078
1083
1088
1093
1097
1102
1106
1110
1114
1118
1121
1125
1128
1132
1135
1138
1141
1143
1146
1149
1151
1153
1156
1158
1160
1162
1164
1166
1168
1170
1171
1173 82
2139
2180
2220
2258
2296
2332
2368
21103
2436
21169
2501
2531
2561
2590
2618
2645
2671
2697
2721
2745
2768
2790
2812
2833
2853
2872
2891
2909
2926
2943
2959
2975
2990
3004
3018
3032
3045
3057
3069
3081
3092
3103
3113
3123
3133
3142
3151
3160
3168
3176
31811
-------
4.1 above. In actuality, many of those mills will cease being economic production
options well before 2000 and some, with extensive maintenance and partial rebuilding
may well be economic after 2000.
While many configurations of mills are possible for future facilities, this report utilizes
the NRC model mill and impoundment for all future new mills. The model mill is
thoroughly described in the Background Information Document (EP A 86, References
Chapter 3). This model mill is consistent with the model mill utilized in previous
analysis of final stabilization standards under other ORP and NRC rulemakings.
When a licensed mill is not operating, it is considered to be on standby. Licensing
authorities may require that a limited dust cover (usually about one foot of earth) be
placed on the tailings piles to prevent extensive blowing of dry tailings during standby
periods. Radon emission levels may not be substantially effected by this limited cover.
In the past, mills have remained on standby for long periods of time. Today, only 2 of
the 27 licensed mills are operating, the balance are on standby or preparing for
decommissioning. When a mill owner decides to terminate an operating license, the
decommissioning of the mill and final stabilization of the tailings impoundments will
occur. For the purpose of the baseline it is assumed that a period of 45 years after
ceasing operation occurs before stabilization. While the period of 5 years of wet
tailings and 40 years 01 dry tailings appears consistent with current practices, a
sensitivity run with only 20 years of dry tailings is presented in subsequent analysis.
Section 4.1 develops two future production scenarios, a reference case developed from
the DOE low production scenario and an alternate case developed from the DOE mid-
production case. These forecasts are very similar between now and the year 2020 as
they are based on the stock of nuclear power plants in operation or currently nearing
completion. The basic difference in the forecasts is the expected cancellations of
plants currently on order and the time period before new orders are again placed. Such
assumptions are purely speculative. Substantial variance in these forecasts could easily
be supported through adjustments in these assumptions. Both cases imply that nuclear
power will continue to provide a substantial portion of our future electric generation
needs. Tne low case provides for utilization of all existing facilities in 2010. These
new new orders will replace existing nuclear capacity and add additional nuclear
capacity over time. This scenario was selected as the reference case as a conservative
judgement about the future of nuclear power. The alternate case with a greater shift
83
-------
to nuclear power in the future provides a sensitivity to the conservative assumption
about the future of nuclear power.
Given the assumption about the expected useful life of existing mills and impoundments
and a 15 year operating life for new model mills, the specific number of mills required
to meet the reference and alternate case production scenarios can be developed.
Exhibit 4-13 presents the number of existing and new mills operating and coming on line
by five year period for the next 100 years. Mills operating from 1985-2000 are all
existing mills and, by assumption, they are all replaced by new mills in 2000. It should
be noted that it requires eight and eleven new model mills for the reference and
alternate cases to replace the capacity of the existing mills that stopped operation in
2000. As the operating life of a model mill is fixed at 15 years, this results in an
artificial periodic capacity replacement cycle for this new year 2000 capacity that
repeats every 15 years through year 2085.
Given the reference case production forecast presented in Section 4.1 above and the
estimates of emissions for existing impoundments in Chapter 3, the profile of the
expected fatal lung cancer for current and future impoundments can be developed.
Using emissions data on existing impoundments and estimates of emissions of model
impoundments for future sites, Exhibit 4-14 presents expected future cancers by type of
impoundment and region of impact over the next 100 years. Exhibit 4-15 identifies the
state in which the emissions occur for existing impoundments. Total fatal cancers
shown in these exhibits are a result of the emissions from all existing impoundments or
those constructed over the next 100 years. The period post-2085 is the emissions and
fatal lung cancers from impoundments constructed in or prior to 2085 and still
operating or on standby after 2085 awaiting final stabilization.
84
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EXHIBIT 4-13:
NUMBER OF EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS IN USE AND NEW MILLS/IMPOUNDMENTS
OPENED BY PERIOD FOR THE REFERENCE CASE(*) AND THE ALTERNATE CASE(**)
Reference Case Al terna te Case
Period In Use Opened In Use Opened
1986-90 4 4
1991-95 4 4
1996-00 3 3
2001-05 8 8 11 11
2006-10 9 1 13 2
2011-15 10 1 15 2
2016-20 11 9 18 14
2021-25 12 2 21 5
2026-30 13 2 23 4
2031-35 14 10 26 17
2036-40 14 2 28 7
2041-45 15 3 30 6
2046-50 15 10 32 19
2051-55 16 3 34 9
2056-60 16 3 35 7
2061-65 17 11 36 20
2066-70 17 3 37 10
2071-75 17 3 37 7
2076-80 17 11 38 21
2081-85 17 3 39 11
(*) Reference Case: Low Production
(**) Alternate Case: High Production
85
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EXHIBIT 4-141
ESTIMATED COMMITTED PATAL LUNG CANCERS PROM RADON-222 EMISSIONS PROM
EXISTING AND PUTURE TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
TIME PERIOD COMMITTED
Loeatlon of Post 2085b Tota"
Impoundment 1985-2005 2008-2025 2028-2045 2048-2085 2086-2085
1x18t1111[ Impoundments
Loeal Effects
0-5 kilometers 3 4 1 .1 .1 .
5-80 kilometers 30 30 10 1 I 70
Total Local 33 34 11 I I 71
National Effects 50 60 22 2 2 138
Total Effects 81 92 34 3 3 214
N.. Impoundments
00 Loeal Effects
0)
0-5 kilometers .02 .3 1 3 3 6 14
5-80 kilometers .2 3 10 20 20 40 101
Total Local .2 3 10 20 30 50 114
National Effects .4 5 20 40 50 90 III
Total Effects .6 8 30 60 80 137 312
All impoundments
Loeal Effects
0-5 kilometers 3 4 3 3 3 6 n
5-80 kilometers 30 30 20 20 30 40 171
Total Local 30 40 20 20 30 50 113
National Effects 50 60 40 40 50 90 333
Total Effects 82 101 65 62 78 137 528
atldlYldualltems may not add to total due to rounding.
b
'atallung cancers from plies uncoyered In 2085 until they reach final coyer.
-------
EXHIBIT 4-15:
ESTIMATED FATAL LUNG CANCERS FROM EMISSIONS OP RADON-222 PROM EXISTING AND PUTURE TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS, BY STATE OP ORIGIN
TIME PERIOD COMMITTED
Location of Post 2085a
Impoundment 1986-2005 2006-2025 2026-2045 2046-2065 2066-2085 !!!!!!
BXmTlNGIMPOUNDMENTS
Colorado
0-80 km 3 5 4 .2 .2
National 3 5 3 .2 .2
Total 6 10 7 .3 .3 24
New "exico
lI-80 km 20 22 7 .6 .6
National 27 30 10 .8 .8
Total 47 51 17 1 1 117
T!!!!
0-80 km 2 2 .6 .2 .2
National .7 .7 .2 .07 .07
Total 2 3 .8 .3 .3 8
co
....::I Y!!!!
0-80 km 1 1 .5 .06 .06
National 5 7 2 2 .2
Total 6 7 3 .3 .3 17
Washington
0-80 km 3 3 .3 .09 .09
National 4 4 .5 .1 .1
Total 7 7 .8 .2 .2 15
Wyoming
0-80 km .7 .9 .4 .04 .04
National 11 14 6 .7 .7
Total 12 15 6 .7 .7 34
Total Existing Impoundments 81 93 34 3 3 214
New Impoundments
0-80 km .2 3 11 22 27 50
National .4 5 20 37 47 87
Total .6 8 31 59 78 137 312
Total All Impoundments 82 101 65 62 84 137 528
a'atallung cancers from piles uncovered in 2085 until they reach final cover.
bJndividual items may not add to total due to rounding.
-------
Ca 79
Cen 84
De 79
DOE 80
DOE 84a
DOE 84b
DOE 84c
DOE 84d
DOE 85a
REFERENCES
M.H. Campbell, et. al., Extraction of Uranium from Seawater: Chemical
Process and Plant Design Feasibility Study, U.S. Department of Energy,
GJBX-36(79), 1989, as reported in DOE 80, p.117.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Population of the United
States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983 to 2080, Current Population Reports,
Series P-25, No. 952, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984.
R.H. De Voto and D.N. Stevens, eds., Uraniferous Phosphate Resources
and Technology and Economics of Uranium Recovery from Phosphate
Resources, U.S. Department of Energy, GJBX-110(79), two volumes, 1979,
as reported in DOE 80, pp. 116-117.
U.S. Department of Energy, An Assessment Report on Uranium in the
United States of America, GJO-111(80), October 1980.
U.S. Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power: 1984, DOE/EIA-
0438 (1984), November 1984.
U.S. Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry
- 1983 Viability Assessment, DOE/8-033, December 1984.
U.S. Department of Energy, United States Uranium Mining and Milling
Industry - A Comprehensive Review, DOE/8-0028, May 1984.
U.S. Department of Energy, World Nuclear Fuel cycle Requirements -
1984, DOE/EIA-0436(84), November 1984.
U.S. Department of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 1984, DOE/EIA-
0383(84), January 1985.
88
-------
DOE 85b
DOE 85c
DOE 85d
DOE 85e
MSR 78
OECD 83
Rod 79
U.S. Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power: Prospects for
the United States and the World, DOE/EIA-0438(85), September 1985.
U.S. Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling
Industry - 1984 Viability Assessment, DOE/EIA-0477, September 1985.
U.S. Department of Energy, Monthly Energy Review - April 1985,
DOE/EIA-0035(85/04), July 1985.
U.S. Department of Energy, Uranium Industry Annual 1984, DOE/EIA-
0478(84), October 1985.
Mountain States Research and Development and PRC Toups Corporation,
Engineering Assessment and Feasibility Study of the Chattanooga Shale as
a Future Source of Uranium, U.S. Department of Energy, GJBX-4(79),
1978, as reported in DOE 80, p.llG.
OECD Nuclear Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency,
Uranium: Resources, Production and Demand, Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development, December 1983.
M.R. Rodman, et.al., Extraction of Uranium from Seawater: Evaluation
of Uranium Resources and Plant Siting, GJBX-35(79), 1979, as reported in
DOE 80, p.117.
89
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CHAPTER 5:
ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES FOR MILL TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
The reduction of radon-222 emissions from licensed uranium mills is most effectively
accomplished by managing the tailings impoundments because radon-222 emissions from
the milling circuit are relatively small and are not readily controlled. For mills which
are not operating and are on a standby basis, nearly all the radon-222 emissions come
from the tailings disposal area.
In this chapter the control techniques available for reducing radon emissions at mill
tailings impoundments are discussed. This is followed by a detailed discussion of
controls for existing impoundments and impoundments to be constructed in the future.
5.1 DESCRIPTION OF WORK PRACTICES
Radon emissions from uranium mill tailings can be reduced by minimizing or covering
tailings dry beach areas. Dry beach can be minimized by keeping the tailings covered
with fluid;. Earth or synthetic material can be used in cases where fluid cover is not
practical. For new tailings impoundments, staged or phased disposal of the tailings or
dewatering and covering are also ways of limiting the area of exposed tailings.
Extraction of radium from the tailings, chemical fixation, and sintering of tailings as a
means of reducing radon emissions have also been explored, but have not been applied
on a large scale and appear too costly for general application (NR C80). The
applicability and effectiveness of control techniques are, for the most part, dependent
upon the design of the mill tailings impoundments and the mill's operating schedule.
Thus, the control techniques can be broadly classified as applicable to -- 1) existing
tailings impoundments at existing uranium mills, and 2) new tailings impoundments at
either new or existing uranium mills.
5.1.1 Earth Cover
Covering the dried beach area with dirt is an effective method for reducing radon-222
emissions and is being used at inactive tailings impoundments. The depth of soil
required for a given amount of control varies with the type of earth and the tailings
radon-222 exhalation rate.
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Earth cover is useful in decreasing radon-222 emissions because it detains radon-222
long enough that it will decay in the cover. A rapid decrease in radon-222 emissions is
initially achieved by applying almost any type of earth. The high-moisture content
earths provide greater radon-222 emission reduction because of their smaller diffusion
coefficient.
In practice, earthen cover designs must take into account uncertainties in the measured
values of the specific cover materials used, the tailings to be covered, and predicted
long-term values of equilibrium moisture content for the specific location. The
uncertainty in predicting reductions in radon-222 flux increases rapidly as the required
radon-222 emission limit is reduced.
The cost of adding earth covers varies widely with location of the tailings impound-
ment, its layout, availability of earth, the topography of the disposal site, its
surroundings, and hauling distance. Another factor affecting costs of cover material is
its ease of excavation. In general, the more difficult the excavation, the more
elaborate and expensive the equipment and the higher the cost. The availability of
materials such as clay or sand will also affect costs. If the necessary materials are not
available locally they must be purchased and/or hauled and costs could increase
significantly.
5.1.2 Water Cover
Maintaining a water cover over the tailings reduces radon-222 emissions. The degree of
radon-222 control increases with the depth of the water and decreases with the radium-
226 content of the water. Factors affecting this practice include the mill water
recirculation rate (if any), evaporation and precipitation rates, pile construction and
slope, phreatic levels and precipitation rates, pile construction and slope, groundwater
contamination, and dike or dam stability. Some above-ground tailings piles minimize
the depth of water in the pond to reduce seepage and possible groundwater contami-
nation by draining the water through an overflow pipe to a separate lined evaporation
pond.
The diffusion coefficient of water is very low (about one thousandth that of a 9 percent
moisture content soil) and water is thus an effective barrier for radon-222. In shallow
areas, however, radon-222 release is increased by thermal gradients and wave motion
and emissions approach those of saturated tailings. Increased radium-226 content in the
water reduces its effectiveness in controlling radon-222 since it releases radon-222.
For a water depth less than 1 meter, the radon flux is similar to saturated bare tailings.
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If a tailings impoundment is initially designed and built to maintain a water cover, there
is no added cost for this form of radon-222 control. Continued monitoring is required to
determine if there is any seepage through the dam or sides, and groundwater samples
may be required peridocially as a check for contamination from seepage. However, if
the tailings impoundment is not designed to maintain a water cover, this form of work
practice may be undesirable as it may cause groundwater contamination. For the
purpose of this analysis saturated and ponded areas are assumed to have neglie:ible
emissions.
5.1.3 Water Spraying
Water (or tailings liquid) sprays can be used to maintain a higher level of moisture in
the tailings beach areas. This reduces fugitive dust emissions and may reduce the loss
of radon-222 from the tailings. The effectiveness of this method, however, varies with
the moisture content of the tailings. The radon-222 emanation coefficient initially
increases with increasing moisture content up to about 5-10 percent moisture by weight
and then remains fairly constant. Thus, if water is applied to a very dry beach area,
radon-222 emissions would initially increase until the emanation becomes constant.
Increased moisture after that point decreases diffusion and thus decreases radon-222
emissions (St 82). Over longer periods of time, an overall radon-222 reduction of 20
percent has been estimated (NRC80). The overall feasibility of wetting to achieve
significant radon-222 reductions is questionable, especially in arid regions, since large
quantities of liquid are required to maintain high moisture levels.
5.1.4 Synthetic Covers
Synthetic material such as a polyethylene sheet can also reduce radon-222 emissions if
carefully placed and sealed on dry beach areas. Covering could be used on portions of
the tailings area on a temporary basis and then removed or covered with fresh tailings.
Such a barrier would also, at least temporarily, aid in the control of radon-222 if a soil
cover material is applied. The overall effectiveness of synthetic covers is not known
since leaks occur around the edges and at seams and breaks. Synthetic covers have a
limited life, especially in dry, sunny, windy areas and will not provide a long-term
barrier to radon-222. Chemical stabilization sprays that form coatings on the dry
tailings are effective for controlling dust, but are not too useful for suppressing radon-
222 since an impermeable cover is not obtained.
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5.1.5 Thermal Stabilization
Thermal stabilization is a process in which tailings are sintered at high temperatures.
The Los Alamos National Laboratory has conducted a series of tests on tailings from
four different inactive mill sites (Dr81). The results showed that thermal stabilization
was effective in preventing the release (emanation) of radon from tailings. The authors
note that before thermal stabilization can be considered as a practical disposal method,
information is needed on the following: (1) the long-term stability of the sintered
material; (2) the interactions of the tailings and the refractory materials lining a kiln;
(3) the gaseous and particulate emissions produced during sintering of tailings; and (4)
revised engineering and economic analysis as more information is developed.
Since gamma radiation is still present, protection against the misuse of sintered tailings
is required. While the potential health risk from external gamma radiation is not as
great as that from the radon decay products, it can produce unacceptably high exposure
levels in and around occupied buildings. Also, the potential for groundwater contami-
nation may require the use of liners in a disposal area.
5.1.6 Chemical Processing
The Los Alamos National Laboratory has also studied various chemical processes to
extract thorium-230 and radium-226 from the tailings, along with other minerals
(Wm81). After removal from the tailings, the thorium and radium can be concentrated
and fixed in a matrix such as asphalt or concrete. This greatly reduces the volume of
these hazardous materials and allows disposal with a higher degree of isolation that
economically achievable with tailings.
The major question regarding chemical extraction is whether it reduces the thorium and
radium values in the stripped tailings to safe levels. If processing efficiencies of 80
percent to 90 percent were attained, radium concentrations in tailings would still be in
the 30 to 60 pCi/g range. Thus, careful disposal of the stripped tailings would still be
required to prevent misuse. Another disadvantage of chemical processing is the cost,
although some of the costs might be recovered from the sale of other minerals
recovered in the processing (Th81).
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5.1. 7 Soil Cement Covers
A mixture of soil and Portland cement, called soil cement, is widely used for stabilizing
and conditioning soils (PC79). The aggregate sizes of tailings appear suitable for soil
cement, which is relatively tough, withstands freeze/thaw cycles, and has a compres-
sive strength of 300 to 800 psi. When combined in a disposal system with a I-meter
earth cover over it, soil (tailings) cement would likely provide reasonable resistance to
erosion and intrusion, substantially reduce radon releases, and shield against penetrating
radiation. Its costs are expected to be comparable to those of thick earth covers. The
long-term performance of soil cement is unknown, especially as tailings piles shift or
subside with age. Also, soil cement cracks at intervals when placed over large surface
areas. The importance of this cracking on the effectiveness of soil cement has not been
evaluated, but is expected to be small.
5.1.8 Deep-Mine Disposal
Disposal of tailings in worked-out deep mines offers several advantages and disad-
vantages compared to surface disposal options. The probability of intrusion into and
misuse of tailings in a deep mine is much less than that achievable with surface
disposal. Radon releases to the atmosphere would be eliminated, for practical purposes,
as would erosion and external radiation. Overall, this method is costly, provides a
relatively high level of protection from 85 percent of the radioactivity in the tailings,
but provides little protection from the remaining radioactivity and toxic materials
unless additional controls are used.
5.2 WORK PRACTICES FOR EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
At licensed mills, tailings impoundments may have reached capacity or be unused during
standby periods. To reduce radon-222 emissions, impoundments that will not be used
again could be covered with earthen material prior to mill decommissioning. For mills
that are on standby, a cover (soil or synthetic material) could be applied to dry-beach
areas and, in some cases, water cover could be maintained to reduce emissions.
The reduction of radon-222 emissions from active tailings impoundments depends on the
specific characteristics of the milling process and the impoundment. These charac-
94
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teristics- include: layout and dike construction, dike height and stability, phreatic level
and permeability, type of milling process (acidic or alkali), plant water balance, pond
evaporation rates, and availability of suitable earth cover material. Operating factors
such as expected production rate, length and number of standby periods, pond capacity,
and expected mill life also affect the controls that could be selected.
A t active impoundments, only tha;e portions that are not to be used further could be
covered. Which portion and how much of the tailings area to cover is a function of
anticipated mill life and quantity of tailings, size of tailings pile, and level of tailings
(percent of capacity). In addition, a source of cover material must be obtained and a
technique must be developed for hauling, dumping, spreading and compacting the soil
onto the beach area. The limited access to the tailings area and the stability of the
dike may affect the size of the equipment that can be used to transport and spread the
cover material. Additional soil may have to be added to the dam or embankments to
decrease their slope and increase stability. Metal gratings or timbers may be required
to distribute vehicle wheel loads on the dike or dried beach area to facilitate the use of
earthmoving equipment.
For existing tailings impoundments water cover is assumed not to be a feasible radon-
222 control strategy. The feasibility of water cover is limited because of the high
likelihood of groundwater contamination and dike stability and seepage. Also, during
extended standby periods maintaining the water cover will be difficult, especially in
arid areas. If water cover is to be practiced, the impoundment should be lined and
constructed to allow at least a I-meter depth water cover with an overflow pipe leading
to an adjacent evaporation pond and/or recycling to the mill. To use water cover,
sufficient freeboard must be maintained to prevent overflow and ground water
monitoring may be required.
5.3 WORK PRACTICES FOR NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
Tailings impoundments to be constructed in the future must, at minimum, meet current
Federal standar~ for prevention of groundwater contamination and airborne particulate
emissions. This baseline tailings impoundment will have synthetic or clay liners, will
probably be built below or partially below grade and have earthen dams or embankments
to facilitate decommissioning. A means for dewatering the tailings after the area is
full should also be incorporated. This conventional design allows the maintenance of a
95
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water cover over the tailings during the milling and standby per~:>ds thus maintaining a
very low level of radon-222 emissions. Dewatering of the tailings can be accelerated
using wells and or built-in drains. A clay or synthetic liner is placed along the sides and
bottom. Cover material may be added after the impoundment has reached capacity or
is not going to be used further and the tailings have dried. For the baseline model new
impoundment it is assumed that final cover will be added forty years after the tailings
have dried. Sensitivity to the assumption of the forty year dry period is evaluated in
the sensitivity analysis contained in Chapter 6. Three alternatives to the work
practices assumed in this baseline model new tailings impoundment are evaluated in this
analysis. These alternatives are discussed in the following sections!
5.3.1 Single Cell Impoundment With Immediate Cover
The first alternative work practice for new impoundments which was evaluated
consisted of the construction of the baseline single cell tailings impoundment with the
sole change being a requirement that the final cover is applied to the exposed tailings
as soon as they have dried. It is assumed that the tailings will be completely dried five
years after the impoundment has reached capacity. Because the baseline impoundment
requires a means for dewatering the tailings, five years is a reasonable time period for
drying.
5.3.2 Phased Disposal
The second alternative work practice which was evaluated for model new tailings
impoundments was phased disposal. In phased or multiple cell disposal, the tailings
impoundment area is partitioned into cells which are used independently of other cells.
After a cell has been filled, it can be dewatered and covered, and another cell used.
Tailings are pumped to one initial cell until it is full. Tailings are then pumped to a
newly constructed second cell and the former cell is dewatered and then left to dry.
After the first cell drys, it is covered with earth obtained from the construction of a
third cell. This process is continued sequentially. This system minimizes emissions at a
given time since a cell can be covered after use without interfering with operation as
opposed to the case of a single cell. Standby periods do not present a problem and
construction of new cells can easily be postponed. Less total surface area is thus
exposed at anyone time. When the tailings impoundment has reached capacity, the
entire area is graded and eventually covered with soil to meet Federal requirements.
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Phased disposal is effective in reducing radon-222 emissions since tailings are initially
covered with water and finally with earth. Only during a drying-out period of about 5
years for each cell are there any radon-222 emissions from a relatively small area.
During mill standby periods, a water cover could be maintained on the operational cell.
For extended standby periods, the cell could be dewatered and a dirt or synthetic cover
applied.
5.3.3 Continuous Disposal
The third alternative work practice, continuous disposal, is based on the fact that
water can be removed from the tailings slurry prior to disposal. The relatively dry
dewatered (25 to 30% moisture) tailings can then be dumped and covered with soil
almost im media tely. No extended drying phase is required and very little additional
work would be required during final closure per Federal requirements. Additionally,
ground water problems are minimized. To implement a dewatering system would
require added planning, design, and modification of current designs. Acid-based
leaching processes do not generally recycle water, and additional holding ponds with
ancillary piping and pumping systems would be required to handle the liquid removed
from the tailings. Using trucks or conveyor systems to transport the tailings to disposal
areas might also be more costly than slurry pumping. Thus, although tailings are more
easily managed after dewatering, this practice would have to be carefully considered on
a site-specific basis.
Various filtering systems such as rotary vacuum and belt filters are available and could
be adapted to a tailings dewatering system. Experimental studies would probably be
required for a specific ore to determine the filter media and dewatering properties of
the sand and slime fractions. Modifications to the typical mill ore grinding circuit may
be required to allow efficient dewatering and to prevent filter plugging or blinding.
Corrosion-resistant materials would be required in any tailings dewatering system due
to the highly corrosive solutions which must be handled. Continuous tailings dewatering
is not practiced at any uranium mills in the United States, but it was proposed at
several sites in the Southwestern and Eastern United States (Ma83). Tailings de-
watering systems have been used successfully at nonferrous ore beneficiation mills in
the United States and Canada (R078).
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Dr81
Ma83
NRC80
Ro78
Ro8!
St82
Th81
Wm81
REFERENCES
Dreesen D.R., Williams J.M., and Cokal E. J., Thermal Stabilization of
Uranium Mill Tailings, in: Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on
Uranimum Mill Tailings Management, Fort Collins, Colorado, October
1981.
Marline Uranium Corp. and Union Carbide Corp. An evaluation of
Uranium Development in Pittsylvania County, Virginia. October 15, 1983.
Section E.3.
Nuclear Regulatory Com mission, Final Generic Environmental Impact
Statement on Uranium Milling, NUREG-0706, September 1980.
RObinsky, E.I., Tailing disposal by the Thickened Discharge Method for
Improved Economy and Environmental Control, in: Volume 2, Proceedings
of the Second International Tailing Symposium, Denver, Colorado, May
1978.
Rogers V. C., and Nielson K. K., A. Handbook for the Determination of
Radon-222 Attenuation Through Cover Materials, NUREG/CR-2340,
Nuclear Regulatory Corn mission, Washington, D.C., December 1981.
Strong K.P. and Levins D. M., Effect of Moisture Content on Radon
Emanation from Uranium Ore and Tailings, Health Physics, 42, 27-32,
January 1982.
Thode, E.F. and Dreesen D.R., Technico-Economic Analysis of Uranium
Mill Tailings Conditioning Alternatives, in: Proceedings of the Fourth
Symposium on Uranium Mill Tailings Management, Fort Collins, Colorado,
October 1981.
Williams J.M., Cokal E. J., and Dreesen D. R., Removal of Radioactivity
and Mineral Values from Uranium Mill Tailings, in: Proceedings of the
Fourth Symposium on Uranium Mill Tailings Management, For Collins,
Colorado, October 1981.
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CHAPTER 6:
ESTIMATED BENEFITS AND COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
This chapter provides an overview of the benefits and costs of the alternative work
practices introduced in the preceding chapter. Costs are estimated as the sum of direct
and indirect costs. Direct costs are based on conventional engineering estimates for
excavation, hauling, grading, etc. Indirect costs, which are estimated as 32 percent of
direct costs, are assumed to include the costs of engineering design, permit costs,
subcontractor's fees, and a contingency. Benefits are provided in terms of levels (or
reductions in levels) of emissions and total cancers which result from the various work
practices.
The costs of the various alternative work practices are discussed in the first section of
the chapter while the benefits are discussed separately in the second section. Within
each section work practices applicable to new model tailings impoundments are
discussed first and work practices employed at existing tailings impoundments are
discussed second. Total costs and benefits under various regulatory alternatives given
the reference case assumptions are presented in the third section. The sensitivity of
the estimated total costs and benefits to a change in the reference case baseline dry
period before final stabilization in the absence of EP A action from 40 years to 20 years
is examined in the following chapter.
6.1 COST OF ALTERNATIVE PRACTICES
6.1.1 New Model Tailings Impoundments
The estimated costs of the three alternative types of model new tailings impoundments
(single cell, phased disposal, and continuous disposal) with below-grade and partially-
below-grade design are provided in Exhibits 6-1 and 6-2. Below grade model new
tailings impoundments were evaluated in this analysis because they are recommended
under current Federal regulations. (In the sensitivity analysis presented in Chapter 8,
costs for partially below grade impoundments are examined.) All costs are given in
1985 dollars. Estimates are given separately for each direct cost component (e.g.,
excavation). An indirect cost component, estimated as 32 percent of direct cost is
added in to provide total cost. Direct costs at all three types of new model
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EXHIBIT 6-1
ESTIMATED COSTS OF BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTs!/
(Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Phased Disposal
Single Cell Continuous
Item Impoundment Each Cell All CellsQ./ Disposal
(trench design)
Excavation 21.51 3.68 22.08 22.75
Synthetic liner 3.03 0.57 3.40 3.82
(30 mil)
Grading 0.40 0.07 0.45 0.51
Drainage system 0.40 0.07 0.40
Cover(3 m) 4.05 0.76 4.57 5.15
Gravel cap 1. 92 0.37 2.21 2.54
(0.5 m)
Evaporation pond 0.52 3.09 4.80
Vacuum filter 1.46
Subtotal direct 31. 31 6.04 36.20 41.03
cost
Indirect cost£/ 10.02 1.93 11. 58 13.13
Total cost 41.33 7.97 47.78 54.16
!/Below-grade impoundments are constructed so that the top of the final cover is at
grade.
Q./Six cells of 20 acres are assumed.
~/Indirect costs including design, engineering, management, planning contingencies, .etc.
are estimated to be 32 percent of direct costs.
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EXHIBIT 6-2
ESTIMATED COSTS OF PARTIALLY BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENT~/
(Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Phased disposal
Single Cell Continuous£/
Item Impoundment Each Cell All Cells~/ Disposal
(single cell design)
Excavation 8.14 1.28 7.70 8.14
Synthetic liner 3.03 0.57 3.40 3.03
(30 mil)
Grading 0.40 0.07 0.45 0.40
Drainage system 0.40 0.07 0.40
Dam construction 2.75 1.27 7.61 2.75
Cover (3 m) 4.05 0.76 4.57 4.05
Rip-rap on slopes 1. 74 0.32 1. 91 1. 74
(0.5 m)
Gravel aap 1. 99 0.39 2.34 1.99
(0.5 m)
Evaporation pond 0.52 3.09 4.80
Vacuu m filter 1.46
Subtotal direct 22.5 5.25 31. 47 28.36
cost
Indirect cost~/ 7.21 1.68 10.07 9.08
Total cost 29.7 6.93 41.54 37.44
!/PartiallY below-grade impoundments are constructed so that tailings are half below and
half above grade. Slopes of dams are 5:1 (h.v.). Earth for dam construction and cover
is taken from impoundment excavation and borrow-pits when necessary.
~/ Six cells of 20 acres are assumed.
£/ A single cell design is used for partially below grade continuous disposal since this is the
more economical option.
!!/Indirect costs including design, engineering, management, planning contingencies, etc.
are estimated to be 32 percent of direct costs.
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impoundments include components for excavation, synthetic liners, grading 3 meters of
cover, and 0.5 meters of gravel cap. The single cell and phased disposal impoundments
also include costs for a drainage system. The continuous disposal impoundment does not
require a drainage system as the tailings are dry prior to being placed in the
impoundment. In addition, the phased and continuous impoundments include an
evaporation pond cost component and the continuous impoundment a vacuum filter cost
component.
The phased and continuous disposal practices limit airborne radon-222 emissions by
reducing the area of exposed dry tailings during operations and by providing the
opportunity for covering substantial portions of the tailings earlier than would occur
using current disposal practices. The total real resource cost for the proposed work
practices are somewhat higher than for traditional methods of disposal, and these costs
are expended more uniformly over the operating life of the impoundments. By
comparison, the current large impoundment method of disposal requires large up-front
costs for excavation and large rear-end costs for final stabilization. Estimated real
1985 dollar costs for below grade disposal at the model new impoundment are shown in
Exhibit 6-3. In this exhibit, costs for each technology are separated into five-year
periods, with period 1 beginning in the current year. The impoundment is active during
periods 1, 2 and 3. Period 4 represents a 5-year drying period for single cell and phased
disposal. The fifth period is required for final stabilization. Real resource cost streams
for each alternative were estimated for entirely below-grade impoundments. The
present value columns of the exhibit show the sum (undiscounted) and the present value
of the cost streams using a 5 percent or 10 percent real rate of discount. For purposes
of calculating the present values, all costs were treated as occurring at the beginning of.
the appropriate 5-year period; e.g., period 1 costs are treated as current costs and
period 5 costs are incurred 20 years from the present time. Undiscounted costs for
phased and continuous disposal exceed costs for the single cell impoundment method.
However the present values calculated at a 5 percent real discount rate show that
phased disposal is slightly less expensive than the single cell impoundment which is
chosen to be the baseline. At a 10 percent real discount rate, phased disposal is
significantly less expensive than the baseline. Continuous disposal, which costs
approximately $13 million more than the baseline impoundment with no discount, is only
$1.5 million more expensive at a 10 percent real discount rate.
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EXHmIT 6-3
CONSTRUCTION AND COVER COST STREAM AND PRESENT VALUE FOR ALTERNATIVE
MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS (BELOW-GRADE)!/
(Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Alternati ves
Present Value of'Q/
Construction and Cover
Ca>t at Various Discount Rates
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 0% 5% 10%
Years Years Years Years Years Discount Discount Discount
Single Cell
.....
<::I Impoundment 33.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.88 41.33 36.42 34.62
Co)
Phased
Disposal 12.96 14.45 15. 95 2.98 1.49 I 47.84 36.07 29.02
I
Continuous
Disposal 18.04 18.04 18.04 0.00 0.00 54.13 43.26 36.21
~/ A limited amount of operation and maintenance cost would also be anticipated during impoundment
life but these costs are small, when compared with construction and cover costs.
'Q/ Ca>ts are assumed to occur at beginning of five-year period.
-------
This reduction in cost difference between the recommended and traditional disposal
methods at higher rates of discount is due to the delay in the timing of large
expenditures for excavation when a phased or continuous method of disposal is
employed. The effect is markedly more pronounced for entirely below-grade impound-
ments, since in this case the baseline impoundment has a higher share of front-loaded
excavation costs than in the partially below-grade case. Further refinement of the cost
stream to annual expenditures would further reduce the differences in present value
cost.
6.1.2 Existing Tailings Impoundments
For existing tailing impoundments two work practices were evaluated: final cover and
interim cover. Water management or water cover was not evaluated because most
existing piles were not of proper design for this work practice. Ma;t notable is the lack
of liners at all but three of the existing impoundments. Use of water management in
the absence of liners would ma;t likely resul t in unacceptable groundwater contamina-
tion risks.
The cost of a final cover was evaluated for each existing tailings impoundment, with
the exception of evaporation ponds. Tailings in the evaporation ponds are assumed to
be excavated and moved to one of the primary tailings piles at the site. Final cover is
assumed to be a dirt covering of the depth required to reduce emissions to
20 pCiI m2-sec.
Exhibit 6-4 provides the cost of final cover for each existing tailings pile in 1985
dollars. For each pile, Exhibit 6-4 provides background information on the type of pile,
status of the pile, total acres in the pile, and depth of final cover required to meet the
standard of 20 pCilm2-sec. Direct costs for final cover are presented separately for
grading slopes, covering the pile to the specified depth, placing gravel and rip-rap to
prevent erosion, tampering etc., reclaiming borrow pits, excavating evaporation ponds
(for evaporation ponds only). Indirect costs are estimated at 32 percent of direct costs
and are added to direct costs to provide total cost.
In addition, an interim cover of one meter depth was evaluated using various
assumptiOffi concerning which areas of the piles (i.e. dry versus wet areas) would be
covered. Interim cover is assumed to be a simple one meter dirt cover whose cost
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EX HIBIT 6-4
COSTS OF FINAL COVER OPTION ON EXISTING PILES ($M.1985)
!/ ~/
TVIII StatuI
Site! PU, rI rI Totll
III cost
Color-
Cotlar Corp.
Primery 2 S 84 3.8 9.12 I. 47 0.40 10.99 3.52 1".51
SecondIIry 2 C 31 3.8 3.37 0.54 0.17 4.08 1.31 5.39
UmelCO
Pile 1 &2 C 66 3.3 1.88 15.40 8.33 0.65 26.26 8,"0 3".66
Pile 3 C 32 3.3 0.82 6.04 3.18 0.28 10.32 3.30 13.62
51udg1 pile C 20 3.3 0.1 1.88 0.35 0.11 2.44 0.78 3.22
EVIP. pand C 17 0.48 0.48 0.15 0.64
N.. 1'Ia'"
SOh 10
l-68r S 128 3.4 0.46 14.50 4.43 0.61 20.00 6."0 26."0
United Huel-
~ ChurdV'ock S 148 2.8 0.5 13."0 4.72 0.57 19.19 6.14 25.33
o AnllX>lldl
c:11 61uewcur I 2 S 239 3.6 24.32 4.18 0.98 29.48 9.43 38.91
61uewetar 2 2 C 47 3.6 4.78 0.82 0.23 5.84 1.87 7.70
61uewcur 3 2 C 24 3.6 2.44 0.42 0.13 2.99 0.96 3.95
[vep. ponds 2 S 162 4.59 4.59 1."7 6.06
Kerr-McOeI
Oulvlre I 1 S 269 3.6 0.85 34.30 10.20 1.35 46.70 14.94 61. 64
OUlvlrl21 1 S 105 3.6 0.53 12.74 3.88 0.5" 17.69 5.66 23.35
Oulvlre 2b I S 28 3.6 0.01 2.85 0.49 0.15 3.50 1.12 4.62
Ouivlre 2c 1 S 30 3.6 0.01 3.05 0.52 0.16 3.75 1.20 ".95
Evep. ponds 2 S 372 10.54 10.54 3.37 13.91
Homestek.
Homestak' 1 1 S 205 3.1 1.4 36.50 18.36 1.43 57.69 18.46 76.15
Homes\IIk. 2 2 C 44 3.1 3.86 0.77 0.19 4.82 1.54 6.36
T exes
ChIN roo
Poone Merll 2 S 124 2.4 8.39 2.17 0.38 10.93 3.50 14.43
utah
Umetco
white Mesa 3 S 48 3.0 4.07 0.84 0.20 5.11 1.6.. 6.75
White M8s8 3 S 61 3.0 5.17 1.07 0.25 6.49 2.08 8.56
white M8s8 3 S 53 3.0 4.50 0.93 0.22 5.64 1.81 7.4~
-------
EXHIBIT 6-4(cont.)
COSTS OF FINAL COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING PILES ($M.1985).
.~/
AJo:I"vn 0.77 0.21 5.33 1.70 7.03
RIO I 2 A oM 3.5 4.34
RI02 2 A 32 3.5 3.16 0.56 0.16 3.88 1.24 5.13
AllIIs
MollO $ 147 3.4 1.1 24.10 10.29 1.00 36.49 11.68 48.17
P IaI8I All
5hoC118rlng 2 S 7 2.8 0.55 0.12 0.04 0.71 0.23 0.94
Web I"'"
DOlitn Milling 7.42 9.54 3.05 12.59
Ford 1,2.3 2 C 95 3.9 1.66 0.46
Ford 4 3 S 28 3.9 2.19 0.49 0.16 2.84 0.91 3.75
w8St8f'n Nue""
5IIenIaId 2 S 94 2.4 6.41 1.64 0.30 8.35 267 11.03
lV.."" 2 S 16 0.45 0.45 0.15 0.60
WVOI8I-
.... P elhf IndIr
0 GelS Hills 1 2 S 124 3.2 11.19 2.17 0.48 13.84 4.43 18.27
en
GelS Hills 2 2 C 54 3.2 4.87 0.94 0.23 6.05 1.94 7.99
GelS Hills 3 2 S 22 3.2 1.98 0.38 0.11 2.48 0.79 3.28
GelS Hills 4 2 S 89 3.2 8.03 1.56 0.36 9.95 3.18 13.13
w8St8f'n Nue""
5p lit Ratt 2 $ 156 3.2 14.18 2.73 0.60 17.51 5.60 23.11
U IJI8Ia)
f. Gas HUb 2 C 151 2.9 12.26 2.64 0.53 15.43 4.94 20.37
A-9 Pit 3 $ 25 2.9 2.03 0."" 0.11 2.58 0.83 3.41
leIICII'" 2 S 22 2.9 1.79 0.38 0.10 2.27 0.73. 3.00
f v. pondI 2 $ 20 0.57 0.57 0.18 0.75
Aa:kv Maunt8ln EI8f\Y
a.. Cr8Ik 2 S 121 3.2 10.92 2.12 0.47 13.51 4.32 17.83
Pelhfindlr
5hlr~ 88ln 2 A 261 3.4 25.4' 4.56 1.02 31.08 '.94 41.02
M lIIer81s Exp.
Sweet..... 2 S 37 2.8 2.89 OM 0.15 3.69 118 487
TOTAlS 3882 7.7 355 102 16 17 496 159 655
Note: Dams constructed of tailinp are graded to aSh: lv slope, O.4Sm of gravel II applied to the tops of aU
impoundments ,nd O.4Sm of rip-1'8p is applied to the slopes of dams constructed of tailinp. Cover material is
excavated on site, borrow pit is reclaimed. Evaporation ponds are excavated and material plaeed on tailinp
impoundment before cover.
!/Type of impoundment: 1 = dam constructed of coarse tailinp; 2 = earthen dam; 3 = below grade.
~Stat.. of impoundment: A = active; S = standby (wiD be used when operationa r_me); C .. fiDed to c8P8city (wiD not be
.-d ...In).
-------
varies in direct portion to the area of the pile which is to be covered. The cost of
interim cover includes components for excavation, hauling, etc. expressed in terms of a
cost per unit of area. A factor of 32 percent for indirect costs is included. The total
costs of the alternative interim cover strategies are shown in Exhibit 6-5 in 1985
dollars. Costs are given separately for: (1) covering all currently dry areas of the pile
except the berm area; and (2) for covering the entire pile (assuming that currently wet
areas of the pile have had time to dry) except the berm area. In the draft economic
analysis estimates were also made for interim covers on berm areas. These estimates
were eliminated here because the technical feasibility of this option is open to question.
In addition, interim cover for evaporation ponds has also been eliminated from the final
rule due to the economic inefficiency of applying this cover and removing it later when
the ponds are excavated.
6.2 BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
6.2.1 New Model Tailings Impoundments
The radon-222 emissions from model new tailings impoundments are summarized. in
Exhibit 6-6. Operational emissions are given on a yearly basis for the 15 years active
period, the 5 year dry out period, and as an average for the entire 20 year period. Post-
operational emissions are also given on a yearly basis for each pile type. These yearly
emissions are then summed to provide estimates of total emissions for each pile type
over 20 years, 40 years and 60 years. Exhibit 6-7 provides the total number of fatal
cancers which will occur over 20, 40 and 60 years as a result of the radon-222 emissions
estimated in Exhibit 6-6. Exhibit 6-7 also provides the number of fatal cancers which
will be avoided over 20, 40 and 60 years as a result of using a disposal strategy other
than a single cell impoundment with no required final cover.
6.2.2 Existing Tailings Impoundments
The radon-222 emission levels given various work practices were estimated for each
existing tailings pile and are presented on an annual basis in Exhibit 6-8. The resulting
estimated fatal cancers per year which will result from these emissions were also
calculated and are presented in Exhibit 6-9. Emissions and fatal cancers are provided
for current conditions, assuming that the piles have had time to dry, assuming that a
one meter dirt cover has been placed on all currently dry portions of the piles except
107
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EXHmIT 6-5:
COST OF INTERIM COVER OPTION ON EXISTING PILES
(Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Ca;t of Interim Cover
Currently Dry All Areas!!
Company Pile Areas
State Name Name (Except Berm) (Except Berm)
Colorado Cotter Corp. Primary 0.11 2.38
Secondary 0.85 0.88
Umetco Pile I&:2 0.48 0.59
Pile 3 0.34 0.42
Sludge Pile 0.54 0.57
Evap. Pond 0.0 0.0
New Mexico Sohio L-Bar 0.82 3.17
United Nuclear Churchrock 1.10 3.46
Anaconda Bluewater 1 6.77 6.71
Bluewater 2 1.33 1.33
Bluewater 3 0.68 0.68
Evap. Ponds 0.0 0.0
Kerr-McGee Quivira 1 4.33 6.54
Quivira 2a 1.27 2.55
Quivira 2b 0.59 0.68
Quivira 2c 0.62 0.74
Evap. Ponm 0.0 0.0
Horn estake Homestake 1 0.45 3.17
Homestake 2 1.02 1.25
Te.X8S Chevron Panna Maria 1.02 3.51
Utah U metco White Mesa 0.96 1.36
White Mesa 1.27 1.72
White Mesa 0.40 1.50
Rio Algom Rio 1 1.08 1.25
Rio 2 0.42 0.91
Atlas Moab 1.13 2.75
Plateau Res. Shootaring 0.03 0.20
Vi Mhington Dawn Mining Ford 1,2,3 2.69 2.69
Ford 4 0.31 0.79
Western Nuclear Sherwood 1.98 2.66
Evap. Pond 0.0 0.0
Wyoming Pathfihder Gas Hills 1 3.37 3.51
G~ Hills 2 1.13 1.53
Gss Hills 3 0.06 0.62
Gas Hills 4 0.31 2.52
Western Nuclear Spli t Rock 1.22 4.42
Umetco E. Gas Hills 4.28 4.28
A-9 Pit 0.40 0.71
Leach Pad 0.62 0.62
Evap. Ponds 0.0 0.0
Rock M t. Energy Bear Cre~k 1.50 3.43
Pathfinder Shirely Basin 1. 70 7.39
U.S. TotalQ/ Minerals Exp. Sweetwater 0.20 1.05
47.38 84.60
a/ Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry out.
~/ Totals may not agree due to rounding.
108
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EXHIBIT 6-6
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
Post -Operational
Operational Emissions (kCi/Y)~/ Emissions (kCi/Y)~/ Total Emissions (kcD
Active Dry Out With
Years Years Final 20 40 60
Alternative 0-15 16-20 Average Uncovered Cover~/ years years years
1. Single cell 0.8 2.5 1.2 NA 0.3 24 30 36
Impoundment£/
2. Phased NA NA 0.79./ NA 0.3 14 20 26
disposal
~
0
~ 0 . 5fl/
3. Continuous NA NA NA 0.3 9 15 21
disposal
4. No action 0.8 2.5 1.2 4.2 NA 24 110 190
(single cell
without cover)
N A - not applicable
~/ Emission estimates based on a flux of 1 pCi/m2--sec per pCi radium-226 per g tailings and a
radium-226 concentration of 280 pCi/g
~/ Final cover to meet 20 pCi/m2--sec standard
£/ Assumes 2096 of the impoundment area is dry beach during the 15-year active life, remainder is
water covered.
9./ Based on 20-year life, 15-year active, and 5-year dry out.
fl/ Based on 15-year life
-------
EXHIBIT 6-7:
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS AND FATAL CANCERS AVOIDED
DUE TO MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS a
Fa tal Cancers Fatal Cancers Avoidedb
20 Years 40 Years 60 Years 20 Years 40 Years 60 Years
No Action Single Cell 0.5 2 4
Impoundment
(without final cover)
~
~
Q
Alternative 1 - Single Cell 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 2 3
Impoundment
(with final cover
after 20 ye~rs)
Alternative 2 - Phased 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 2 3
Disposal
Alternative 3 - Continuous 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 2 3
Disposal
aDifferences may not add due to rounding.
, bFatal cancers avoided by choosing alternative diposal technology over the conventional single cell impoundment.
-------
EXHIBIT 6-8,
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS GIVEN VARIOUS COVERS
RADON-222 Emissions (kci/y)
All
Areas
Dry 1 2
With- Inter im Cover Interim Cover Final3
Company Pile 1985 out On Currently Dry Areas On All Areas
State Name Name Conditions Covers (Except Berms) (Except Berms) Cover
Colorado Cotter Corp Primary 0.4 8.4 0.2 3.2 0.2
Secondary 3.0 3.1 1.1 1.2 0.1
Umetco Pile 1&2 3.8 4.0 3.2 3.2 0.2
Pile 3 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.4 0.1
Sludge Pile 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.1
Evap. Pond 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0
New Mexico Sohio L-Bar 2.9 8.2 1.7 3.7 0.3
United Nuclear Churchrock 2.4 5.5 1.3 2.5 0.4
Anaconda Bluewater 1 18.9 18.9 7.3 7.3 0.6
Bluewater 2 3.7 3.7 1.4 1.4 0.1
Bluewater 3 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.1
Evap. Ponds 3.8 12.8 3.8 12.8
Kerr-McGee Quivira 1 15.1 21.3 7.7 10.1 0.7
Qui vira 2a 4.7 8.3 2.5 3.9 0.3
Qui vira 2b 2.0 2.2 1.0 1.0 0.1
Quivira 2c 2.1 2.4 1.0 1.1 0.1
Evap. Ponds 7.5 29.4 7.5 29.4
Homestake Homestake 1 5.4 10.1 4.9 6.7 0.5
Homestake 2 1.8 2.2 0.7 0.8 0.1
Texas Chevron Panna Maria 0.9 3.1 0.3 1.2 0.3
Utah Umetco White Mesa 1.5 2.1 0.6 0.8 0.1
White Mesa 2.0 2.7 0.8 1.0 0.2
White Mesa 0.6 2.4 0.2 0.9 0.1
Rio Algom Rio 1 2.7 3.1 1.0 1.2 0.1
Rio 2 1.1 2.3 0.4 0.9 0.1
Atlas Moab 6.2 10.1 4.5 6.0 0.4
Plateau Res. Shootaring 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Washington Dawn ~ining Ford 1,2,3 2.9 2.9 1.2 1.2 0.2
Ford 4 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1
Western Nuclear Sherwood 1.8 2.4 0.7 0.9 0.2
Evap. Ponds 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4
Wyoming Pathfinder Gas Hills 1 6.4 6.6 2.4 2.5 0.3
Gas Hills 2 2.1 2.9 0.8 1.1 0.1
Gas Hills 3 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.1
Gas Hills 4 0.6 4.8 0.2 1.8 0.2
Western Nuclear Split Rock 2.4 8.6 0.9 3.3 0.4
Umetco E. Gas Hills 6.0 6.0 2.3 2.3 0.4
A-9 Pit 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.1
Leach Pad 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1
Evap. Ponds 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8
Rock Mt. Energy Bear Creek 2.8 6.5 1.1 2.5 0.3
Pathfinder Shirley Basin 4.1 18.0 1.6 6.9 0.7
Minerals Exp. Sweetwater 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.1
ANNUAL 4
U.S. TOTAL 129.6 239.1 68.7 129.8 8.8
'I
, Assumes current level of water cover and no interim cover on evaporation ponds. Evaporation ponds are assumed to remain wet (1985
condi tions).
:2
Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry and no interim cover on evaporation ponds.
:3
Assumes evaporation ponds are moved to main impoundment at final disposal.
4
Totals may not agree due to independent rounding.
111
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EXHIBIT 6-9:
SUMMARY OF YEARLY ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS iMPOUNDMENTS FOR VARIOUS COVERS
ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS (COMMITTED CANCERS/Y)
All
Areas
Dry Interim Cover 1 Interim Cover2
With- Pilll.l3
Company Pile 1985 out On Currently Dry Area On All Areas
State Name Name Conditions ~ (Except Berms) (Except Berms) ~
Colorado Cotter Corp Primary .01 .3 .006 .1 .006
Secondary .09 .1 .03 .04 .003
Umetco Pile leU .07 .07 .06 .06 .004
Pile 3 .03 .04 .02 .03 .002
Sludge Pile .02 .02 .007 .009 .002
Evap. Ponds .02 .02 .02 .02
New Mexico Sohio L-Bar .08 .2 .05 .1 .008
United Nuclear Churchrock .05 .1 .03 .05 .008
Anaconda Bluewater 1 .4 .4 .2 .2 .01
Bluewater 2 .09 .09 .03 .03 .002
Bluewater 3 .04 .04 .02 .02 .002
Evap. Ponds .09 .3 .09 .3
Kerr-McGee Qui vira 1 .3 .4 .1 .2 .01
Qulvira 2a .08 .1 .05 .07 .005
Qulvira 2b .04 .04 .02 .02 .002
Qulvira 2c .04 .04 .02 .02 .002
Evap. Ponds .1 .5 .1 .5
Homestake Homeatake 1 .1 .3 .1 .2 .01
Homeatake 2 .05 .06 .02 .02 .003
Texas Chevron Penna Maria .04 .1 .01 .05 .01
Utah U metco White Mesa .02 .03 .008 .01 .001
White Mesa .03 .04 .01 .01 .003
White Mesa .008 .03 .003 .01 .001
Rio Algom Rio 1 .04 .04 .01 .02 .001
Rio 2 .02 .03 .006 .01 .001
Atlas Moab .1 .2 .08 .1 .007
Plateau Res. Shootaring .001 .002 .001 .001 .000
Washington Dawn Mining Ford 1,2,3 .06 .06 .03 .03 .004
Ford 4 .008 .02 .01 .01 .002
Western Nuclear Sherwood .03 .05 .01 .02 .004
Evap. Ponds .0 .007 .0 .007
Wyoming Pathfinder Gas Hills 1 .08 .08 .03 .03 .004
Gas Hills 2 .03 .04 .01 .01 .001
Gas Hills 3 .001 .02 .0 .006 .001
. Gas Hills 4 .007 .06 .002 .02 .002
Western Nuclear Split Rock .03 .1 .01 .04 .005
Umetco E. Gas Hills .07 .07 .03 .03 .005
A-9 Pit .007 .01 .002 .005 .001
L_ch Pad .01 .01 .004 .004 .001
Bvap. Ponds .0 .01 .0 .01
Rock Mt. Energy Bear Creek .04 .09 .02 .03 .004
Pa thCinder Shirley Basin .05 .2 .02 .09 .009
Minerals Exp. Sweetwater .002 .02 .001 .006 .001
ANNUAL 4
U.8. TOTAL 2.36 4.44 1. 304 2.48 0.15
~ A.umes current level of water cover and no interim cover on evaporati<;KI ponds. Evaporation ponds are assumed to remain wet (1985
conditions). 2 Asumea the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry and no interim cover on evaporation ponds.
3 Assumes evaporation ponds are moved to main impoundment at final disposal.
4Totals may not agree due to independent rounding.
112
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tailing sand berms (without drying), assuming that a one meter interim cover has been
placed over the entire pile except tailing sand berms (i.e., the wet areas of the piles
have had time to dry), and assuming that the piles have received a final cover of depth
required to reduce emission to 20 pCi/m2-sec.
It should be noted that when interim cover is applied to the dry portions of an
impoundment with wet or ponded areas, emissions (and fatal cancers) will rise as the
currently wet areas dry. The emissions (or fatal cancers} which will be incurred after
the wet areas have dried may be calculated by subtracting emissions (or fatal cancers)
under current conditions from these under dry conditions and adding the result to the
emissions (or total cancers) previously calculated for interim covers on dry areas only.
6.3 ESTIMATED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS
OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
The work practices for disposal of uranium mill tailings described in the previous
chapter each act to reduce the future incidence rate. of fatal lung cancers in the local
regions surrounding today's mill sites, in the local regions surrounding future mill sites,
and in a very large portion of the nation lying "downwind" of these mill sites due to the
four day half-life of radon-222. The econo~ic and financial impacts of these
recommendations vary significantly, depending on the year selected for conversion to
the recommended practices, since the indust~y currently has a large amount of unused
tailings disposal capacity remaining in impoundments which do not comply with the new
requirements. Adoption of the recommended work practices will also result in a shift in
the timing of major expenditures required for excavation .of new impoundments and for
the final stabilization of both new and existing impoundments. The disparate patterns
of costs and avoided fatalities resulting from each possible choice of recommended
work practice and. year of introduction make it difficult to compare the possible
regulatory alterntitives without the use of a detailed site-specific analysis.
For this analysis, the small number' (43) of existing impoundments at currently licensed
mills permitted analysis of the -impact of the possible regulatory alternatives at existing
mills using site-by-site data on estimated health effects and unit costs presented above
in Exhibits 6-4, 6-5, 6-8 and 6-9. For future production at new mill sites, costs and
emissions for the model mill and impoundment discussed in the Backgrowld Information
Document (EP A 86, References, Chapter 3) were utilized. These data were presented
113
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in Exhibits 6-1 through 6-3, 6-6 and 6-7. In the baseline projections to 2085 presented
in Chapter 4, 85 model new mills and 85 impoundments are expected to be constructed
between the years 2000 and 2085 under the low domestic uranium production scenario.
As noted in Section 4.1, the alternative case of high domestic production is also a
reasonable forecast. This assumption is addressed in the sensitivity analysis in Chapter
8. Production requirements from now to 2000 are assume~ to be met with production
from currently existing mills, all of which are assumed to cease operation by the end of
this century. In this discussion total costs and benefits estimates are presented
separately for existing mills and impoundments and for the 85 projected new impound-
ments at future mills.
As noted in the Introduction to this analysis of the final rulemaking, several changes in
the technical description of the interim cover alternative have been made in response
to comments received during the public comment period which followed the publication
of the Draft Economic Analysis. These changes have been incorporated into Sections
6.3.3 and 6.3.4, which discuss the cost and benefits at existing mills.
6.3.1 Total Cost Estimates: Future Mills
The DOE low domestic uranium production forecast led to the projection that 85 new
mills and model new impoundments would be constructed between the years 2000 and
2085. The estimated total cost and present value cost of the alternative work practices
at the future model mill were presented in Exhibits 6-1 through 6-3. For this analysis
cost data for the entirely below-grade impoundment is used. In the sensitivity analysis
presented in Chapter 8, total costs of the alternative wo-k practices for the partially
below-grade impoundments are examined.
The low production forecast, combined with the assumption that all existing mills cease
operations by the year 2000, leads to the projection that 11 model new mills are brought
on-line beginning in the year 2001. Small growth in demand thereafter implies the
addition of 2 or 3 new mills in each five year period through the year 2015. In the
period beginning with 2016, the original 11 model new mills are retired, in accordance
with the assumed 15-year life for the model future mill. In this period, 11 additional
model new mills must be constructed to replace these retirements, and again an
addi tional 2 or 3 m ills are required to meet the small projected growth in demand. The
model for future mills therefore exhibits a 15-year periodicity which is somewhat
114
-------
artificial, resulting from the asswnption that all existing mills are retired by the year
2000. This periodicity will be evident in all results presented in this subsection.
The estimated post-2000 life-cycle cost estimates developed for the alternative work
practices at the 85 future impoundments are presented in Exhibits 6-10A, 6-10B, and
6-10C. In these exhibits, total cost by period and cumulative costs are shown for the
baseline single-cell impoundment at the future mills, with a 40-year dry standby period.
Adoption of the "straw man" asswnption that the baseline impoundment will not achieve
final stabilization until 40 years after drying is based on a desire to estimate the
relative magnitude of costs and benefits for all alternatives. Asswning a shorter period
before final stabilization, e.g., 20 years, results in lower cost and benefits estimates for
all alternatives at both new and existing impoundments. Results derived under the 20
year baseline assumption are presented in Chapter 7.
The total additional real resource cost stream for the alternative work practices are
obtained by subtracting the baseline life-cycle cost stream from the life-cycle cost
stream under the al ternati ve work practice, yielding the net addi tional cost of the
alternative. This quantity is labeled in the exhibits as the added cost of the alternative.
Present values of each cost stream are shown at the bottom of each column. The
present value costs are calculated in 1985 dollars, assuming that all costs in a five-year
period are expended at the beginning of the period. The added present value cost of
each alternative is small, due to the large time span between the present time and the
beginning of operation of the first new model mills in the year 2000.
The total life-cycle cost of the single impoundment option, with final cover five years
after filling, are identical to the costs for the baseline, which asswnes the same
disposal system but with cover 40 years later. Although total added costs for this
alternative swn to zero over the time frame selected for analysis, the present values of
the added cost stream for this alternative are positive. This reflects the lost
opportunity value associated with the earlier time of final stabilization.
The costs for the phased disposal option shown in Exhibit 6-10B has total life-cycle
costs which are approximately 15 percent higher than for the baseline impoundment.
But a large portion of excavation costs are incurred later in time for each mill, due to
the more uniform pattern of expenses for the phased disposal shown in Exhibit 6-3. This
timing advantage for phased disposal reduces the difference in costs when present
115
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EX HIalT 6-10 A:
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(millions 1985 dollars)
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
3041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85 (*)
post-2085
baseline
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0
o 0
o 0
268 268
33 301
33 334
301 636
67 702
67 769
334 1104
67 1171
100 1271
334 1606
100 1706
100 1806
431 2237
108 2345
108 2454
439 2893
116 3009
504 3513
COVER IN 5 YEARS
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0
o 0
o 0
268 268
33 301
33 334
301 636
130 765
75 840
342 1183
138 1320
116 1437
350 1787
179 1966
116 2082
392 2474
179 2653
124 2777
392 3168
187 3355
158 3513
added cost
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0
o 0
o 0
o 0
o 0
o 0
o 0
63 63
8 71
8 79
71 150
16 165
16 181
79 260
16 276
-39 236
71 307
16 323
-47 276
71 347
-347 0
TOTAL
------===-----====-=-=~-=c=============-=-====================-=========
o
PV(l~)
PV(5~)
PV(10~)
(*)
3513
1865
341
101
3513
1969
366
104
105
26
3.5
Post-2085 costs include all remaining life~ycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
116
-------
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
3041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
post-2085 (*)
EXHIBIT 6-10B:
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 dollars)
baseline
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0
o 0
o 0
268 268
33 301
33 334
301 636
67 702
67 769
334 1104
67 1171
100 1271
334 1606
100 1706
100 1806
431 2237
108 2345
108 2454
439 2893
116 3009
504 3513
PHASED
TOTAL
o
o
o
104
129
155
171
187
203
219
222
236
238
252
254
268
270
271
271
271
347
DISPOSAL
CUMULATIVE
o
o
o
104
232
387
558
745
948
1167
1388
1625
1862
2114
2368
2636
2906
3177
3448
3719
4066
added cost
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0
o 0
o 0
-164 -164
95 -69
122 53
-130 -77
120 43
136 179
-116 63
155 218
136 354
-97 257
152 409
153 562
-163 399
161 560
163 723
-168 555
155 710
-157 553
TOTAL
-=-===================================================================
553
PV ( 1")
PV(5")
PV(10")
(*)
3513
1865
341
101
4066
2218
363
87
353
22
-13
Post-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
117
-------
values are calculated. At a 5 percent discount rate, life-cycle costs for phased disposal
are approximately equal to those for the baseline. A t a 10 percent discount rate, the
present value cost of phased disposal is less than that for the baseline.
The total life-cycle costs for the continuous disposal option shown in Exhibit 6-10C are
higher than for the baseline impoundment. Continuous disposal also has a timing
advantage in the delayed expenditure of funds for excavation costs. Hence the cost
difference between continuous disposal and the baseline method also decreases at
higher discount rates. At a 1 percent discount the total life-cycle cost streams differ
by 37 percent; at a 5 percent discount the difference is 28 percent; and at 10 percent,
only 8 percent.
Graphs of the total added cost streams for each alternative are shown in Exhibits
6-11A, 6-11B, and 6-UC. These cost streams exhibit the 15 year periodicity in the
pattern of positive added costs and negative added costs shown in each graph. As noted
above, the periodicity is somewhat artificial. However the graphs clearly show that
large cost savings resulting from delayed excavation costs are fallowed by posi ti ve
added costs later during the life-cycle of each new mill. Similar periodicity is evident
in the cumulative cost graphs.
The present values of the estimated added life-cycle cost streams for each alternative
work practice at future uranium mills are summarized in Exhibit 6-12. In this exhibit
the present value cost at a 5 percent and 10 percent discount rate for the baseline
disposal method are compared to the present value cost of each alternative. The added
cost for each al ternati ve and the percent increase in present value cost are also
presented.
6.3.2 Total Benefits Estimates: Future Mills
The estimated benefits of each alternative work practice option at existing mill sites
are calculated using site-specific health-effects factors computed using EPA-AffiDOS,
based on the site-specific emissions estimates and local populations. This procedure is
docwnented in the Background Information Docwnent (EPA 86, References, Chapter 3)
and is swnmarized in Section 6.2 above. The benefit estimates for existing mills are
discussed at the end of this section. For future mills, the location of future
impoundments with respect to local populations surrounding the sites are not currently
118
-------
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
3041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85 (*)
post-2085
EXHIBIT 6-10C:
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 dollars)
baseline
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0
o 0
o 0
268 268
33 301
33 334
301 636
67 702
67 769
334 1104
67 1171
100 1271
334 1606
100 1706
100 1806
431 2237
108 2345
108 2454
439 2893
116 3009
504 3513
CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL added cost
TOTAL CUMULATIVE TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0 0 0
o 0 0 0
o 0 0 0
144 144 -123 -123
163 307 129 6
181 488 147 153
199 686 -102 51
217 903 150 200
235 1138 168 368
253 1390 -82 287
253 1643 186 473
271 1914 171 643
271 2185 -64 579
289 2474 189 768
289 2763 189 957
307 3070 -124 833
307 3377 199 1031
307 3684 199 1230
307 3991 -132 1098
307 4298 191 1289
307 4605 -197 1092
TOTAL
.._============================================================
1092
PV( 1")
PV ( 5" )
PV ( 10" )
(*)
3513
1865
341
101
4605
2546
435
109
681
95
8.3
Post-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
116
119
-------
EX H!BIT 6-11 A:
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
NEW PILE COSTS-COVER IN FIVE YEARS
I'M: '/EAR 1U1'ALS MO POST-208& 1U1'1IL
.SID
2110
i
.
'"
E
'"
100
o
I -100
~
i -2110
-.SID
-400
1880
2010
2G3O
2OIiO
2070
pallt-2086
ENDING YEAR FOR PERlOO
!IOO
400
i .SID
.
'"
! 2IXI
I 100
~
i 0
-100
-2110
1880
CUlll\AATM cosrs 81' P£JIIOO
2010
2030
2OIiO
2070
""""'2016
EN08tG \TNt - PEJIIOO
120
-------
EXHIBIT 6-11B:
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
:5)0
310
i
. 100
='
E
'"
I 0
~
~
B -100
-310
-:5)0
1880 2010 2OJO 2OfiO
ENDING Y£AR FOR PERIllO
CUIllA.A'TM cosrs 81' P£J!IOD
!!DO
7DO
eoo
i IlOO
.
.
! 400
I :5)0
~
~ 310
.
fi 100
0
-100
-310
1880 2010 2OJO 2OfiO
ENOINO ytAR FOR PERIOD
NEW PILE COSTS-PHASED DISPOSAL
FM 'I£AR TOTAL IHD POST -:2011& TOTAL
2070
,--2086
2070
pa8t-2086
121
-------
EXHIBIT 6-11C:
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
2110
i
.
. 100
..
!
I 0
..
~
i -100
-2110
-.JOO
1880 2010 2030 2OIiO
DlI*a Y£AR FOR -01>
CUIIIUlATM COSfS BY PfRIOD
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
,... 1.1
II
I
. 0..
! 0..
8 0.7
S 0..
..
~ 0.5
i 0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
1880 2010 2Q1O 2OIiO
.m
NEW PILE COSTS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
FM 'I£AR TOTALS AND POST-2D8& TOTAL.
2070
"""-2086
2070
"""-2016
-_PO"-
122
-------
EXHmIT 6-12:
PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
(millions of 1985 dollars)
.....
t..:>
W
5 Percent Discount Rate 10 Percent Discount Rate
Alternative Work Practice Cost of Added Cost Cost of Added Cost
For New Impoundments Alternative (%) Alternative (%)
1. Baseline impoundments 366 26 104 3.5 I
,
I
covered in 5 years (7%) (3%) !
2. Phased disposal 363 22 87 -13
(6%) (-13%)
3. Continuous disposal 435 95 109 8.3 '
I
(28%) (9%) i
i
Baseline impoundment 341 -- 101 --
covered in 40 years
j
-------
known. For this analysis, health effects estimates were generated for the 0-5 kilometer
local area and the 5-80 kilometers local region by using the average number of health
effects per curie released at all existing mill sites for each respective region. This
procedure is based on the assumption that future mills will be located in rural and
remote areas as are the majority of today's existing mill sites. National health effects
were estimated using the same procedure as for existing mills, also based on an average
number of health effects per curie released. The above assumptions lead to the
following health-effect factors for new mills:
.
0-5 Km: 8.26 x 10-4 fatal lung cancers per kilocurie per year,
.
5-80 Km: 6.13 x 10-3 fatal lung cancers per kilocurie per year, and
.
Rest of Nation: 1.20 x 10-2 fatal lung cancers per kilocurie per year.
Estimated benefits for the alternative work practices at the 85 new model mills
projected to be on-line in the years 2000 to 2085 are presented in Exhibits 6-13A,
6-138, and 6-13C. In these exhibits, baseline fatal lung cancers and avoided lung
cancers for each alternative are shown for the local, regional and national regions and
in total for each of the five-year periods. Total health effects over the 85 year period
are listed at the bottom of each column. The benefits and cumulative benefits at
future mill sites are graphed for each alternative in Exhibits 6-14A, 6-148, and 6-14C.
A summary of Exhibits 6-13 (A through C) is contained in Exhibit 6-15. Examination of
this exhibit shows that all three alternative new impoundment work practices result in
substantial benefits when compared to the baseline. The percent of avoided fatalities
for each region is identical, due to the use of the health-effects-per-Curie-released
factors discussed above. For each alternative, the percent of avoided baseline fatal
cancers is between 80 percent and 90 percent.
6.3.3 Total Ca;t Estimates: Existing Mills
Estimates of the total cost of the alternatives at existing licensed mill si tes are derived
by comparing the baseline disposal cost stream with the cost stream required for
disposal under each alternative. The additional real resource cost resulting from each
alternative is obtained by subtracting baseline cost from the cost of the alternative in
124
-------
EXHIBIT 6-13A:
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
base1ine COVER IN 5 YEARS
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.2 0.11 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006-10 0.0 0.2 0.11 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011-15 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2016-20 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2021-25 0.2 1.11 2.7 11.3 0.1 1.0 1.9 3.0
2026-30 0.2 1.6 3.0 11.8 0.1 1.1 2.1 3.3
2031-35 0.3 2.3 11.5 7.2 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.7
2036-40 0.11 2.9 5.8 9.1 0.3 2.3 11.11 7.0
2041-115 0.11 3.2 6.3 10.0 0.3 2.5 11.9 7.8
2046-50 0.6 11.1 8.0 12.7 0.11 2.7 5.11 8.5
2051-55 0.6 11.8 9.4 11L 8 0.5 3.9 7.7 12.2
2056-60 0.7 5.1 10.0 15.9 0.6 11.2 8.2 12.9
2061-65 0.7 5.1 10.0 15.8 0.5 3.6 7.0 11.1
2066-70 0.8 5.7 11. 3 17.8 0.6 11.7 9.1 .111. 11
2071-75 0.8 6.0 11. 8 18.6 0.7 11.9 9.6 15.2
2076-80 0.8 5.9 11. 6 18.11 0.6 11.2 8.2 12.9
2081-85 0.9 6.5 12.7 20.1 0.7 5.3 10.3 16.3
p08t-2085 6.0 1111.6 87.3 137.9 5.11 39.8 77.9 123.1
...==--====_a_=======-==================================================
TOTAL 13.6 100.8 197.6 312.0 11. 0 81. 2 159.1 251.3
125
-------
EXHIBIT 6-13B:
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
(com mitted fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline PHASED DISPOSAL
REST OF REST 0,.
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
2006-10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
2011-15 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
2016-20 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5
2021-25 0.2 1.4 2.7 4.3 0.1 1.0 2.1 3.2
2026-30 0.2 1.6 3.0 4.8 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.6
2031-35 0.3 2.3 4.5 7.2 0.2 1.7 3.4 5.4
2036-40 0.' 2.9 5.8 9.1 0.3 2.4 4.7 7.5
2041-45 0.4 3.2 6.3 10.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 8.2
20'6-50 0.6 4.1 8.0 12.7 0.5 3.3 6.6 10.3
2051-55 0.6 4.8 9.' 14.8 0.6 4.1 8.0 12.7
2056-60 0.7 5.1 10.0 15.9 0.6 4.4 8.6 13.6
2061-65 0.7 5.1 10.0 15.8 0.6 4.2 8.2 13.0
2066-70 0.8 5.7 11. 3 17.8 0.7 4.9 9.6 15.1
2071-75 0.8 6.0 11.8 18.6 0.7 5.1 10.0 15.8
2076-80 0.8 5.9 11. 6 18.4 0.7 4.8 9.5 15.0
2081-85 0.9 6.5 12.7 20.1 0.7 5.5 10.7 16.9
post-2085 6.0 ".6 87.3 137.9 5.5 40.8 79.9 126.1
---=----------_s_-===============================z=----===-==-==-==-=-==
TOTAL 13.6 100.8 197.6 312.0 11. 7 86.7 169.8 268.2
126
-------
EXHIBIT 6-13C:
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
A T FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(com mitted fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
2006-10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
2011-15 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
2016-20 0.1 0.9 1.1 2.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0
2021-25 0.2 1.4 2.1 4.3 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.5
2026-30 0.2 1.6 3.0 4.8 0.2 1.3 2.5 3.9
2031-35 0.3 2.3 4.5 1.2 0.3 1.9 3.8 6.0
2036-40 0.4 2.9 5.8 9.1 0.3 2.5 5.0 1-8
2041-45 0.4 3.2 6.3 10.0 0.4 2.8 5.4 8.6
2046-50 0.6 4.1 8.0 12.1 0.5 3.6 1-0 11. 0
2051-55 0.6 4.8 9.4 14.8 0.6 4.2 8.3 13.1
2056-60 0.1 5.1 10.0 15.9 0.6 4.5 8.9 14.0
2061-65 0.1 5.1 10.0 15.8 0.6 4.4 8.6 13.1
2066-10 0.8 5.1 11. 3 11.8 0.1 5.0 9.8 15.5
2011-15 0.8 6.0 11. 8 18.6 0.1 5.3 10.3 16.3
2076-80 0.8 5.9 11. 6 18.4 0.1 5.1 9.9 15.1
2081-85 0.9 6.5 12.1 20.1 0.8 5.6 11. 0 11.4
post-2085 6.0 44.6 81.3 131-9 5.5 41.1 80.5 121-1
---=======--============================================================
TOTAL 13.6 100.8 191.6 312.0 12.1 89.3 114.9 216.3
127
-------
EXHIBIT 6-14A:
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
A T FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
NEW PILE BENEFITS-COVER IN FIVE YEARS
FM Y£AR TOTALS AND POST-20m TOTAL
1.30
120
110
100
&? to
...
U ID
~
~ 70
~ ID
B eo
8
~ 40
.30
20
10
0
11180 2010
I22J *T1OIW.
2OJO
206D
21170
paM-2086
~ YE"AfI FOR P£RIoo
~ &-ID Km
~ 0-11 ICm
ClMLlAlIYE BEHEFT1S 8T POIIOD
2Il1O
240
ZZO
2DD
r 1110
tJ lID
~
~ 140
~ 120
B 100
Q
~ ID
eo
40
20
0
11180 2010 2OJO 206D
21170
paoot-2086
IZZI IMTIONAL
tH~ "'" I'I:MIIID
~ &-ID Km
~ o-li ICm
128
-------
EXHIBIT 6-14B:
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
NEW PILE BENEFITS-PHASED DISPOSAL
FIVE '/EAR TOTALS AND POST - 20115 TOTAL
130
120
110
100
! 90
0 80
~
~ 70
~ 80
a !!O
"
$ 40
30
20
10
0
1880 2010
IlZI IMTIONAL
2OJO
2050
2070
pa8t-20116
~ Y£AR FOR PERloo
~ 6-80 Km
~ 0-6 Km
CIMLlATM: BENEFITS BY PERlOO
2!10
260
240
220
&! 200
... 180
0
~ 180
~ 140
~
a 120
" 100
~ 80
eo
40
20
0
1880 2010 2OJO 2050
2070
pa8t-2086
ILZJ IMTIONAL
ENCI:I2..:!£AR FOR P£RIO[)
~ 6-80 Km
~ 0-6 Km
129
-------
EXHIBIT 6-14C:
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
NEW PILE BENEFITS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
mE 'l£AR TOTU AND PQST-2D86 TOTAL
130
120
110
100
r 90
...
0 80
~
! 70
~ 80
e eo
g
$ 40
JO
20
10
0
11180 2010
I22J No\1lONAL
2OJO
2Or.O
2070
pooot- 2086
EIjgU1 YEAR FOR -00
~ &-80 KIn
~ 0-& KIn
ClJIIlAA1M: BENEFITS BY -00
21!10
260
240
220
r 3XI
... 180
0
~ 180
~ 140
~
e 120
! 100
80
80
40
eo
0
1180 2010 2OJO 20lIO
IZZJ No\1lONAL
2070
pa8t-2QII&
OIDfIl...I£AII FOR -00
~ &-10 KIn
~ 0-& KIn
130
-------
EXHIBIT 6-15:
SUMMARY OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
0-5 Km 5-80 Km Rest of Nation Total
Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent
Alternative Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fa talities Avoided Fa talities Fatalities Avoided
1. Baseline 13.6 11.0 81% 100.8 81.2 81% 197.6 159.1 81% 312 251.3 81%
Impound-
ments (cover
in 5 years)
.... 2. Phased 13.6 11.7 86% 100.8 86.7 86% 197.6 169.8 86% 312 268.2 86%
~ Disposal
....
3. Continuous 13.6 12.1 89% 100.8 89.3 89% 197.6 174.9 89% 312 276.3 89%
Disposal
-------
each time period, then taking the present value of the stream of additional costs.
Three types of cost may be incurred: opportunity cost associated with moving up the
time of final cover expenses, replacement costs for disposal in new impoundments, and
interim cover costs to the extent these costs are not recoverable at the time of final
stabilization.
For existing impoundments, construction costs are considered as sunk costs, and only
the cost of final stabilization is considered. The timing of this cost will be affected by
the proposed regulations, resulting in earlier final stabilization. In our model, we
assume that currently existing Federal regulations will require final stabilization of
existing impoundments within 5 years after the mill is required to go to new disposal
methom at new impoundments.
In the low production scenario, only a limited number of mills are expected to produce
between now and the year 2000. New tailings disposal capacity must be constructed at
these mills if conversion to the recommended work practice is required before the year
2000. Costs of these replacement impoundments at existing mills were estimated based
on cost data for the recommended work practices at the model new impoundment, as
shown in Exhibit 6-3.
Revisions in the technical analysis of interim cover presented in the Draft Economic
Analysis requires several changes in the methodology applied for calculating benefits
and costs of the proposed control alternatives. These changes are a result of comments
and concerns expressed by mill operators during the public comment period which
followed the release of the draft analysis. Significant changes in assumptions made for
this analysis of the final rulemaking includes:
1.
No application of interim cover to the berms of impoundments;
2.
No application of interim cover to evaporation ponds;
3.
The requirement of a second interim cover application at 14 (33 percent)
of 43 impoundments in the period 1995-2000 to re-cover tailings deposited
during presumed operation in the period 1990-1995; and
132
-------
4.
An annual maintenance cost of 5 percent of the cost of the interim cover
to preserve integrity of the cover in each period following its installation.
In addition, concern was expressed in the public comments that the 40-year baseline dry
period before final cover may be inappropriately long. In this analysis of the final
rulemaking, we will also include results for a 20-year baseline period. Results for a
change in reference-case assumptions to a 20-year baseline dry period were presented
previously in the sensitivity analysis (Section 6.4) of the Draft Economic Analysis.
Results for the 20 year assumption are now presented in Chapter 7, and the sensitivity
analysis of other assumptions is reported in Chapter 8. The following sections of this
chapter report revised benefit and cost estimates for the interim cover (1 meter)
alternative under the 40 year scenario.
Assumptions 1 through 3 above all influence the estimated benefits (avoided fatal
cancers) resulting from the 1 meter interim cover alternative. Assumptions 1 and 2
combine to yield a small reduction in the scope of applicability of interim cover, and
hence reduce both costs and benefits proportionately. Assumption 3 has a minor impact
on benefits because the integrity of the interim cover is destroyed during the second
operating and dry-out period, which lasts less than 10 years and affects only one-third
of the impoundments. Assumption 4 affects only the cost estimates.
An application of the revised assumptions to the model developed for the Draft
Economic Analysis produced the revised benefits estimates reported here for the
interim cover alternative. The revised assumptions lead to a reduction in the estimated
benefits of interim cover of approximately 33 percent. This change is due to the
combined effects of the first three revised assumptions, in which evaporation ponds anc;1
berms are no longer covered and 14 impoundments go through a second period of
operation.
The four revised assumptions for the I-meter interim cover alternative all effect the
cost estimates presented in the Draft Economic Analysis. Assumptions 1 and 2 reduce
the cost of the alternative proportionately to the benefits, as noted above.
Assumptions 3 and 4 have significant impacts on the cost estimation, while they
produce little change in the benefits estimates.
133
-------
The largest impacts of the revised assW11ptions on the cost of interim cover are due to
the re qui rem ent for annual maintenance on the interim cover during the 40-year period
bef ore final cover.
Estimates of the total cost of each alternative at existing mills are presented in
Exhibits 6-16A through 6-16E. The costs in the exhibit are expressed in 1985 dollars,
and the total cost streams are separated into cost streams for final stabilization
(cover), replacement of lost capacity, and interim cover. Baseline cost streams are
presented in the left-ma;t colW11ns, estimated cost streams W1der each alternative are
shown in the center colW11ns, and the net added cost stream for the alternative in the
right-ma;t colW11ns. The present values at the bottom of each colW11n were calculated
assuming costs are incurred at the beginning of each five year period. Graphs of the
total added cost streams for each alternative at existing mills are shown in Exhibit
6-17A through 6-17E.
Examination of Exhibits 6-16A through 6-16E shows that the total added cost stream
for final cover sums to zero, when no discount rate is applied. However, the present
value cost of final cover is posi ti ve for all discount rates greater than zero. This
un15ual result stems from the fact that identical real resource costs for final cover
occur in both the alternative cost stream and the baseline cost stream, with earlier
payment of these costs under the alternative. As a result, the added cost stream for
final cover contains balancing positive and negative entries. Ca;ts of final cover may
be referred to as a Type 2 cost of the rule. A type 2 cost requires no net additional
expenditure of real resources, but the time of expenditure is affected by the
alternative. The term "type 2 cost" serves to distinguish these costs from the cost
streams for replacement impoundments and interim cover, which are referred to as
Type 1 costs. These latter costs represent additional real resources required under the
al ternati ve which are not reCJ.Iired in the baseline.
The present values of the type 2 cost stream for final cover measure the opportunity
cost associated with earlier payment of these expenses for final cover. The opportunity
cost first increases, going from a 1 percent discount rate to a 5 percent rate. The
opportunity cost then decreases when the discount rate is raised to 10 percent. By
comparison, the additional type 1 real resource cost required under the alternatives for
134
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16A:
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(millions 1985 dollars)
BASElINE COVER BY 1990 ADDED COST
ENDING FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI"
YEAR COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1990 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 72 0 72 0 72
1995 0 0 0 0 658 72 0 730 658 72 0 730
2000 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 54 0 54 0 54
2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2030 88 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 -88 0 0 -88
2035 439 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -439 0 0 -439
2040 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 -7
2045 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2050 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2055 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2060 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2065 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2070 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2075 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2085 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
=========================================================================================================================
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 199 0 856 0 199 0 199
PV(1S) 413 0 0 413 626 190 0 816 213 190 0 403
PV(51) 69 0 0 69 515 162 0 671 446 162 0 608
PVOOI) 9 0 0 9 408 138 0 546 400 138 0 538
135
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16H:
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(millions 1985 t'loJ]lirs)
BASELINE COVER BY 1995 ADDED COST
ENDING FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI"
YEAR COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 72 0 72 0 72
2000 0 0 0 0 658 54 0 712 658 54 0 712
2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2030 88 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 -88 0 0 -88
2035 439 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -439 0 0 -439
2040 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 -7
2045 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2050 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2055 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2060 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2065 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2070 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2075 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2085 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================c====================================================================================================
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 126 0 784 0 126 0 126
PV(1S) 413 0 0 413 595 118 0 713 182 118 0 300
PV(5S) 69 0 0 69 404 90 0 494 334 90 0 424
PV(10S) 9 0 0 9 254 66 0 319 245 66 0 311
136
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16C:
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
(millions 1985 dollars)
baseline 2000 added cost
FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI"
PERIOD COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 54 0 54 0 54
2001-05 0 0 0 0 658 0 0 658 658 0 0 658
2006-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2011-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016-20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021-25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026-30 88 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 -88 0 0 -88
2031-35 439 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -439 0 0 -439
2036-40 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 -7
2041-45 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2046-50 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
============================================================================================================::::
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 54 0 712 0 54 0 54
PV(lI) 413 0 0 413 566 49 0 615 153 49 0 202
PV(51) 69 0 0 69 316 33 0 350 247 33 0 280
PV(tOI) 9 0 0 9 157 21 0 178 149 21 0 170
137
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16D:
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
A T EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(millions 1985 dollars)
BASEl INE COVER BY 2005 ADDED COST
ENDING FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI"
YEAR COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOT AL
1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19'5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010 0 0 0 0 658 0 0 658 658 0 0 658
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2030 88 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 -88 0 0 -88
2035 '3' 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -'39 0 0 -439
20'0 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 -7
2045 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2050 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2055 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2060 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2065 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2070 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2075 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2085 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
=====================a=========E=========================================================================================
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 0 0 658 0 0 0 0
'VOl) '13 0 0 413 539 0 0 539 126 0 0 m
PV(51) 69 0 0 69 2'8 0 0 248 179 0 0 179
PV (1 OS) 9 0 0 9 98 0 0 98 89 0 0 8'
138
-------
EXHmIT 6-16E:
COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
(millions 1985 dollars)
basrlinr INTERI" ONLY addrd [Os t
FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTER I"
PERIOD COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL tOVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 21 0 0 21 21
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 68 0 0 68 68
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 32 0 0 32 32
2001-05 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 46 0 0 46 .6
2006-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 35 0 0 35 35
2011-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 0 0 24 24
2016-20 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 0 0 24 24
2021-25 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 0 0 24 24
2026-30 88 0 0 88 88 0 19 107 0 0 19 19
2031-35 439 0 0 439 439 0 5 444 0 0 5 5
2036-40 7 0 0 7 7 0 5 12 0 0 5 5
2041-45 41 0 0 41 41 0 3 44 0 0 3 3
2046-50 83 0 0 83 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
================~====================================================z==========================================
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 0 308 966 0 0 308 308
PV(1I) 413 0 0 413 413 0 258 671 0 0 258 258
PV(51) 69 0 0 69 69 0 151 220 0 0 151 151
PV(101) 9 0 0 9 9 0 97 106 0 0 97 97
139
-------
EXHmrr 6-17A:
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHmVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
ANAL COVER BY 1990
eoo
700
eoo
" !IOO
II
. 400
...
.
i 300
"wi'
0 2DO
Q
~ 100
IL
~ 0
III
~ -100
-200
-300
-400
-fIOQ
1880 2005 2020 2035 2050
2065
2080
ENDING YE'AR FOR PERIOD
140
-------
EXHffiIT 6-17B:
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
ANAL COVER BY 1 995
800
700
eoo
,.... fiOO
m
ell 400
...
.
E JOO
'V'
0 200
Q
~ 100
a.
~ 0
III
~ -100
-200
-.:!DO
-400
-500
1990 2005 2020 2035
2050
ENDING YEAR FOR PERIOD
2065
141
2~0
-------
EXHmfr 6-17C:
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHffiVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
FINAL COVER BY 2000
eoo
700
eoo
,... 500
II 400
r'
.
E .DJ
'OJ
0 200
~ 100
III
IL
~ 0
lit
~ -100
-200
-300
-400
-fiOO
1980 2005 2020 2035 2050
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
2065
ENDING Y£AR FOR PERlOO
142
2080
-------
EXHmrr 6-17D:
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
FINAL COVER BY 2005
eoo
700
eoo
,... 500
~
. 400
..
..
E 300
...,
a 200
2
E 100
III
~
t 0
III
~ -100
-200
-!OO
-400
-500
1990 2005
2020
2035
2Q5O
2065
2080
ENOINO YE"AR FOR PERIOO
143
-------
EXH mrr 6-17E:
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
INTfRIM COVER ONLY
2DO
11M)
180
170
UIO
,... 1!iO
I 140
..
. 130
;:: 120
E
" 110
8 100
I:
... 1M)
a.
&i 80
.. 70
ft eo
60
40
30
20
10
0
1880 2006 2020 2035 2060 2065 2080
ENDINOYrARFOAPERlOO
144
-------
replacement impoundments and interim cover do not occur in the baseline cost stream.
Both the total cost and present value cost for these type 1 cost items are positive, with
monotonically decreasing present values for larger discount rates.
The disparate behavior of these two categories of costs as a function of the discount
rate is examined in Exhibit 6-18, which contaim graphs of the present value of a tyPe 1
or type 2 cost payment of $1 at times t = 10 and t = 20 years in the future. The type 1
graphs start at $1 and uniformly decrease along the well-known exponential curve. The
type 2 cost has a identical avoided cost of -$1 at a time 40 years after the time of
payment. In this case, the total cost with no discount rate is zero. At higher discounts,
the present value first increases then decreases, with the maximum present value
occurring at a real discount rate of less than 5 percent. At discount rates of greater
than 8 percent, the present value of the avoided cost payment 40 years later is almost
zero. Hence, at discount rates higher than 8 percent, the present values of tyPe 1 and
type 2 costs are almost identical.
The distinction between tyPe 1 and type 2 costs of the alternatives serves to separate
the additional real resource costs of this rule from the opportunity value of costs for
final stabilization which are required under other Federal statutes but which will be
paid earlier as a result of this rule.
The results presented in Exhibits 6-16 (A through E) are summarized in Exhibit 6-19.
The summary table shows the present value of the total social costs incurred by
requiring the alternative work practices at existing mills. The present value cost at 5
percent and 10 percent of required expenditures for each cost category and total costs
are shown for each alternative, where applicable. Alternatives which require final
cover before 2005 have costs for replacement capacity, while the other alternatives do
not require replacement of existing disposal capacity under the assumption that all
existing mills cease operations by the year 2000.
6.3.4 Total Benefits Estimates - Existing Mills
The benefits of reduced radon-222 emissions resulting from adoption of the recom-
mended work practices at existing licemed uranium mills were presented in Exhibit 6-9.
These benefits occur due to earlier final stabilization of existing impoundments at
current mill sites, and due to reduced operating emissions during disposal of future
145
-------
0.9
0.8
~ 0.7
~
Do. 0.6
...
0
III 0.5
::>
~
~ 0.4
Z
..,
1/1
'" 0.3
I:
~
0.2
0.1
0
0 4
EXHIBIT 6-18:
COMPARISON OF THE PRESENT VALUES OF TYPE 1 AND TYPE 2
COSTS AS A FUNCTION OF THE REAL DISCOUNT RATE
PRESENT VALUE OF lYPES 1 & 2 COSTS
REQUIRE" PAYMENT AT t-10(20) YE"ARS
. pv(~ 1 CCI8t)-
PV(C(t)] for C(t)-".00
. pv(~ 2 COBt)-
PV[C(t)]-PV[C(t+delto t)]
for delta t-40 yea... and
C(t)-C(t+delto t)~1.00
8
12
18
20
24
DISCOUNT RAlE (K)
-------
EXHffiIT 6-19:
PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION
OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES
.....
""'
-..:J
5 Percent Discount 10 Percent Discount
Type 2a b Type 1 Type 2 Type 1 Type 1
Type 1
Final R eplacem ent Interim Total Final Replacement Interim Total
Control Alternative Stabilization Impoundments Stabilization Cast Stabilization Impoundments Stabilization Cast
1. Re
-------
tailings generated at these mills. The magnitude of the estimated benefits is strongly
affected by our baseline assumption that existing impoundments will remain in a
standby status for 40 years before final stabilization. A sensitivity analysis using a 20
year baseline assumption is presented in Chapter 7.
Estimates of baseline and avoided fatal lung cancers due to radon-222 emissions at
existing mills are presented in Exhibits 6-20A through 6-20E for each alternative date
of final cover for existing impoundments and for interim cover only. The avoided
fatali ties are reported in five-year periods for the local area (0-5 kilometers), the local
region (5-80 kilometers), and for the rest of the nation. These estimates were
developed by summing the site-5pecific health effects estimates presented in Exhibit 6-
9, given the time pattern of future operations of existing mills implied by the baseline
low-production scenario.
For alternatives which re
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20A:
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(com mitted fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline 1990
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.6 10.8 17.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1. 0 -1. 6
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 0.8 6.4 12.2 19.4
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 0.8 6.5 12.7 19.9
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.8 6.9 13.6 21. 4
2006-10 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.3 14.0 22.3
2011-15 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.3 14.0 22.3
2016-20 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.3 14.0 22.3
2021-25 1.0 7-7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.3 14.0 22.3
2026-30 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.8 5.9 11. 8 18.4
2031-35 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.1 1.3 3.0 4.5
2036-40 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 1.3 2.8 4.2
2041-45 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 1.2 1.8 3.1
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
..======================================================================
TOTAL 8.6 70.1 135.6 214.3 7.1 58.1 112.2 177.4
149
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20B:
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(com mitted fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline 1995
REST OF REST OP
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.6 10.8 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 -0.1 -0.5 -1. 0 -1. 6
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 0.8 6.5 12.7 20.0
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.8 7.0 13.6 21. It
2006-10 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.0 22.3
2011-15 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.0 22.3
2016-20 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.0 22.3
2021-25 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.0 22.3
2026-30 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.8 5.9 11. 8 18.5
2031-35 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.1 1.3 3.0 4.5
2036-40 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 1.3 2.8 11.3
2041-45 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 1.2 1.8 3.1
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
--~-====-====-======~===---=--==========-====z===a============-======-=-
TOTAL 8.6 70.1 135.6 214.3 6.3 51. 8 100.3 158.5
150
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20C:
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
Avoided Fatalities
baseline 2000
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.6 10.8 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.8 7.0 13.6 21.4
2006-10 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.1 22.3
2011-15 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.1 22.3
2016-20 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.1 22.3
2021-25 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.9 7.4 14.1 22.3
2026-30 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.8 5.9 11.9 18.5
2031-35 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.2 1.3 3.0 4.5
2036-40 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 1.3 2.8 4.3
2041-45 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 1.2 1.8 3.2
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 .-0.1
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
..z=====================================================================
TOTAL 8.6 70.1 135.6 214.3 5.6 45.5 88.4 139.5
151
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20D:
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(com mitted fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline 2005
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.1 5.6 10.8 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.9 1.2 14.2 22.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006-10 1.0 1.1 14.6 23.2 0.9 1.4 14.1 22.4
2011-15 1.0 1.1 14.6 23.2 0.9 1.4 14.1 22.4
2016-20 1.0 1.1 14.6 23.2 0.9 1.4 14.1 22.4
2021-25 1.0 1-1 14.6 23.2 0.9 1.4 14.1 22.4
2026-30 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.8 5.9 11. 9 18.6
2031-35 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.2 1.4 3.1 4.6
2036-40 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 1.4 2.9 4.4
2041-45 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 1.3 1.8 3.3
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066-10 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011-15 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20"6-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
___K___D__&_~_-----------=----_=__=D==_=__--=-------===----=-------===--
TOTAL 8.6 10.1 135.6 214.3 4.9 39.5 16.2 120.5
152
-------
EXHmIT 6-20E:
BENEFITS OF INTERIM ST ABILIZA TION
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
Avoided Fatalities
baseline INTERIM ONLY
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.4 10.3 16.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.9
1991-95 0.7 6.0 11. 6 18.4 0.3 2.1 3.8 6.2
1996-00 0.7 5.4 10.8 16.8 0.2 1.4 2.8 4.3
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.3 2.6 5.3 8.2
2006-10 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.4 3.3 6.4 10.1
2011-15 1.0 7.7. 14.6 23.2 0.4 3.3 6.4 10.1
2016-20 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.4 3.3 6.4 10.1
2021-25 1.0 7.7 14.6 23.2 0.4 3.3 6.4 10.1
2026-30 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.3 2.5 5.0 7.8
2031-35 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.8
2036-40 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.6
2041-45 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.9
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
..---==================================================-=======8==____--
TOTAL
8.4
67.7
131. 5
207.6
3.2
25.0
48.2
76.3
153
-------
EXHmfr 6-21A:
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHmVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 1990
FIVE YEAR TOTALS
28
24
22
20
I 18
III
u 18
~
~ 14
~ 12
a 10
g
~ 8
8
4
2
0
1geO 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080
(lZJ *TIONAL ~ YEAR FOR PERIOD
5-80 Km I?2ZI 0-5 Km
154
-------
EXHmIT 6-21B:
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 1995
AVE YEAR TOTALS
26
24
22
20
I! 18
IaJ
0 16
~
.J 14
~
j! 12
a 10
0
~ 8
6
4
2
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080
IZZJ ~TIONAI... ~ YE'AR FOR PERIOD
5-80 Km ~ (f-5 Km
155
-------
EXHmIT 6-21C:
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 2000
FM: YEAR TOTAlS
28
24
22
20
B 18
0 18
~
~ 14
~ 12
a 10
"
~ 8
8
4
2
0
1gee 2006 2020 2035 2050 2085 2080
IZZJ ""TOUL EN~ YE'AR FOR PERIOD ~ 0-6 Km
6-80 Km
156
-------
EXHmIT 6-21D:
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHmVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 2005
AVE YEAR TOTALS
26
24
22
20
I! 18
...
0 16
~
~ 14
~ 12
a 10
Q
~ 8
6
4
2
0
1990 2006 2020 2035 2060 2065 2080
IZZJ *TIONAL ~YEARFDRPERtOO
5-80 Km ~ 0-5 KIn
157
-------
EXHmff 6-21E:
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM STABILIZATION
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: INTERIM COVER ONLY
F1\/E 'tEAR TOTALS
28
24
22
20
I 18
tt 18
~
~ 14
~ 12
S" 10
g
$ 8
8
4
2
0
1880 2CX)5 2020 2035 2060 2065 2080
~YE'ARFORP£RfOO
IZZJ Nl\TIOtW.. 5-80 Km ~ 0-5 Km
158
-------
....
(J1
co
EXHmlf 6-22:
FATALITIES AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF FINAL STABILIZATION
0-5Km 5-80 Km Rest of Nation Total
Avoided Percent A voided Percent Avoided Percent A voided Percent
Control Alternative Fatalities A voided Fatalities A voided Fatalities A voided Fatalities A voided
1. Require new teclmology now, 7 78% 58 83% 112 82% 177 83%
achieve final stabilization by
1990.
2. Require new teclmology by 1990, 6 67% 52 74% 100 74% 158 74%
achieve final stabilization by
1995.
3. Require new teclmology by 1995, 6 67% 46 66% 89 65% 141 66%
achieve final stabilization by
2000.
4. Require new teclmology by 2000, 5 56% 40 57% 76 56% 121 57%
achieve final stabilization by
2005.
5. Interim stabilization only 3 33% 25 36% 48 35% 76 36%
(1 meter)
6. Baseline Fatalities 9 I 70 136 214
I
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to independent roW\ding.
-------
CHAPTER 7:
ESTIMA TED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS
OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES (20 YEAR BASELINE)
In Chapter 6 of the previous Draft Economic Analysis document, a "straw-man"
assumption was introduced to enable measurement of the costs and benefits of the
proposed emission control alternatives from a baseline scenario which defines the
radon-222 emissions of existing impoundments in the absence of the current EPA action
to further reduce these emissions. The assumption, simply stated, was that
impoundments would not achieve final stabilization until 40 years after cessation of
use. This hypothesis was referred to as the 40-year baseline assumption. In the
sensitivity analysis (Section 6.4) of the Draft Economic Analysis, revised cost and
benefit estimates were presented for an alternative 20-year baseline assumption. In the
previous analysis, only total cost and total benefits were reported.
During the period for public comment which followed the release of the draft analysis,
both State officials and industry representatives expressed concern that the 40-year
period may be unrealistically long. Also during this period, several mills have submitted
plans to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the decommissioning and final
stabilization of impoundments which are no longer needed. Both facts point toward an
earlier date of final stabilization for existing impoundments, thus increasing the
likelihood that the 20-year baseline assumption better reflects actual future conditions
in the absence of this EP A rulemaking. Due to this added likelihood, the cost and
benefit estimates under the 2"0-year scenario are presented in detail in this chapter,
rather than as a part of the sensitivity analysis which is now presented in Chapter 8 of
this report.
7 .1 TOTAL COST ESTIMATES: FUTURE MILLS
The DOE low domestic uranium production forecast led to the projection that 85 new
mills and model new impoundments would be constructed between the years 2000 and
2085. The estimated unit costs of the alternative work practices at the future model
mill were presented in Exhibits 6-1 through 6-3. For this analysis of the 20 year
baseline assumption, cost data for the entirely below-grade impoundment are used. The
160
-------
15-year periodicity of new mill costs which was described in Section 6.3.1 will be
evident in all results presented in this section.
The estimated post-2000 life-cycle cost estimates developed for the alternative work
practices at the 85 future impoundments under the 20 year baseline are presented in
Exhibits 7-1A, 7-1B, and 7-1C. In these exhibits, total cost by period and cumulative
costs are shown for the baseline single-cell impoundment at the future mills, with a 20-
year dry standby period before final stabilization. Assuming the shorter period before
final stabilization, i.e., 20 years, generates lower cost estimates for all alternatives at
new impoundm ents.
As in the 40 year baseline analysis of Chapter 6, the total additional real resource cost
streams for the alternative work practices are obtained by subtracting the baseline life-
cycle cost stream from the life-cycle cost stream under the alternative work practice,
yielding the net additional cost of the alternative in each year. This quantity is labeled
in the exhibits as the "added cost" of the alternative. Present values of each cost
stream are shown at the bottom of each column. The present value costs are calculated
in 1985 dollars, assuming that all costs in a five-year period are expended at the
beginning of the period. The added present value cost of each alternative is small, due
to the large time span between the present time and the beginning of operation of the
first new model mills in the year 2000.
The total undiscounted life-cycle cost of the single impoundment option, with final
cover five years after filling, are identical to the costs for the baseline, which assumes
the same disposal system but with final stabilization occurring 20 years later. Although
total added costs for this alternative sum to zero over the time frame selected for
analysis, the present values of the added cost stream for this alternative are positive.
This reflects the lost opportunity value associated with the earlier time of final
stabilization required under the alternative.
The costs for the phased disposal alternative shown in Exhibit 7-1B has total life-cycle
costs under the 20 year assumption which are again approximately 15 percent higher
than for the baseline impoundment. But a large portion of excavation costs are
incurred later in time for each mill, due to the more uniform pattern of expenses for
the phased disposal shown in Exhibit 6-3. This timing advantage for phased disposal
161
-------
EXHmIT 7-1{A):
COST OF AN ALTERNATNE WORK PRACfICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FNE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(millions 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
base11ne COVER IN 5 YEARS added cost
PERIOD TOTAL CUMULATIVE TOTAL CUMULATIVE TOTAL CUMULATIVE
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001-05 268 268 268 268 0 0
2006-10 33 301 33 301 0 0
2011-15 33 334 33 334 0 0
2016-20 301 636 301 636 0 0
2021-25 67 702 130 765 63 63
2026-30 67 769 75 840 8 71
2031-35 334 1104 342 1183 8 79
2036-40 67 1171 138 1320 71 150
3041-45 163 1334 116 1437 -47 102
2046-50 342 1676 350 1787 8 110
2051-55 108 1785 179 1966 71 181
2056-60 171 1,956 116 2082 -55 126
2061-65 3811 23110 392 24711 8 134
2066-70 116 2456 179 2653 63 197
2071-75 179 2635 1211 2777 -55 1112
2076-80 384 3019 392 3168 8 150
2081-85 124 31113 187 3355 63 213
p08t-2085 370 3513 158 3513 -213 0
------------------------_z_~-____a______--------------=-=----------_....
TOTAL 3513 3513 0
PV(1%) 1912 1969 58
PV(5%) 348 366 19
PV(10%) 101 104 3.0
(*)
Palt-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.,
162
-------
EXHmIT 7-l(B):
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
base1.1ne PHASED DISPOSAL added cost
PERIOD TOTAL CUMULATIVE TOTAL CUMULATIVE TOTAL CUMULATIVE
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001-05 268 268 104 104 -164 -164
2006-10 33 301 129 232 95 -69
2011-15 33 334 155 387 122 53
2016-20 301 636 171 558 -130 -77
2021-25 67 702 187 745 120 43
2026-30 67 769 203 948 136 179
2031-35 334 1104 219 1167 -116 63
2036-40 67 1171 222 1388 155 218
3041-45 163 1334 236 1625 73 291
2046-50 342 1676 238 1862 -105 186
2051-55 108 1785 252 2114 144 330
2056-60 171 1956 254 2368 82 412
2061-65 384 2340 268 2636 -116 297
2066-70 116 2456 270 2906 153 450
2071-75 179 2635 271 3177 92 542
2076-80 384 3019 271 3448 -113 429
2081-85 124 3143 271 3719 147 576
post-2085 370 3513 347 4066 -23 553
--======-=z=======-===========-=======-================_=a__m8_~_C=_--
3513 4066 553
PV(l") 1912 2218 306
PV(5") 348 363 15
PV(10") 101 87 -14
-) Post-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
163
-------
EXHmIT 7-1(C):
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACfICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-110
30'U-115
20116-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-10
2011-15
2016-80
2081-85
po.~-2085
b..eline
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
o 0
o 0
o 0
268 268
33 301
33 3311
301 636
61 102
61 169
3311 11011
61 1111
163 13311
3112 1616
108 1185
111 1956
3811 23110
116 21156
119 2635
3811 3019
1211 31113
310 3513
CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL added cost
TOTAL CUMULATIVE TOTAL CUMULATIVI
o 0 0 0
o 0 0 0
o 0 0 0
1~4 144 -123 -123
163 301 129 6
181 488 141 153
199 686 -102 51
211 903 150 200
235 1138 168 368
253 1390 -82 287
253 1643 186 473
271 1914 107 580
211 2185 -12 509
289 211711 181 689
289 2163 118 807
307 3070 -17 730
307 3311 191 921
301 36811 128 10119
307 3991 -71 972
301 11298 183 1155
301 11605 -63 1092
----------------.-.-.----------------------------------------.-
PV(l")
PV(5")
PV(10")
(*)
3513
1912
348
101
11605
1092
25116
435
109
634
88
7.9
Pa;t-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
164
-------
reduces the difference in costs when present values are calculated. At a 5 percent
discount rate, life-cycle costs for phased disposal are approximately equal to those for
the baseline. At a 10 percent discount rate, the present value cost of phased disposal is
less than that for the baseline impoundment. These results are identical to those noted
in the previous chapter for the 40 years baseline.
The total life-cycle costs under the 20 year baseline for the continuous disposal option,
shown in Exhibit 7-1C, are higher than for the baseline impoundment. Continuous
disposal also has a timing advantage in the delayed expenditure of funds for excavation
costs. Hence the cost difference between continuous disposal and the baseline disposal
method also decreases at higher discount rates. At a 5 percent discount the total life-
cycle cost streams differ by 25 percent; and at a 10 percent discount, by only 8 per4Jent.
Graphs of the total added cost streams for each alternative are shown in Exhibits 7-2A,
7-2B, and 7-2C. These cost streams for the 20 year baseline exhibit the 15 year
periodicity note above in the 40 year baseline analysis.
The present values of the estimated added life-cycle cost streams under the 20 year
assumption for each alternative work practice at future uranium mills are summarized
in Exhibit 7-3. In this exhibit the pre'Jent value cost at a 5 percent and 10 percent
discount rate for the baseline disposal method are compared to the present value cost
of each alternative. The added cost for each alternative and the percent increase in
present value cost are also presented. Comparison with Exhibit 6-12 shows that there is
little change in the 10 percent discounted costs for new mills as a resul t of changing the
40 year baseline assumption to 20 years. At a 5 percent discount, the added cost of
alternative 1, large single-cell impoundments covered in five years, decreases from $26
million under the 40 year assumption to approximately $19 million under the 20 year
assumption. Corresponding decreases for phased and continuous disposal are $22 million
to $15 million, and from $95 million to $88 million, respectively. In percentage terms,
the change to a 20 year baseline assumption decreases costs for alternative 1 by 26
percent, the cost of phased disposal by 32 percent, and continuous disposal by 8 percent.
7.2 TOTAL BENEFITS ESTIMATES: FUTURE MILLS
The estimated benefits of each alternative work practice at existing mill sites are
cal~ulated lEing site-specific health-effects factors computed lEing EPA-AIRDOS,
based on the site-specific emissions estimates and local populations. This procedure
165
-------
EXHmrr 7-2(A):
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(20 year baseline)
NEW PILE COSTS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS
I'M '/£All 1OTM.S -..0 POST - 2ID86 1OTM.
:J:IO
210
i
.
100
0:
!
I
~
~
o
i
-100
-200
-SID
1180
2010
2030
2DIiO
2070
"'--2016
EHOINO Y£AR FOR PIROO
CUMUlA,. cosrs BY PEI800
8DO
400
i :J:IO
.
0:
! 200
D
r 100
~
i 0
-100
-210
1810 2010 2030 2DIiO
BIDING Y£AR FOR PERIOD
2070
"'--2016
166
-------
800
700
-- 800
......
! I!OO
.
! 400
~ ;D)
IL
~- ZIO
..
ft 100
0
-100
~- -ZIO
II11N) 2010 2030 2060
;D)
2IJQ.
i
.
.
100
!
~
~
i
-100
-ZIO
-;D)
II11N)
EXHmrr 7-2(8):
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
(20 year baseline)
NEW PILE COSTS - PHASED DISPOSAL
FNE '/E'AR TOTAlS AND POST-2OII6 TOTAL
o
2010
2030
2060
2070
"""-20116
DlDINO YEAR FOR PERlOO
CUIIIU"'M: COSTS fir PERIOD
2070
"""-20116
DlDINO YEAR FOR PERIOD
167
-------
EXHmrr 7-2(C~
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(20 year baseline)
CUllllAA1M COSI'S 81' PPIIDO
I.a
1.4
1.3
1.2
i 1.1
. 0..
~
E~ 0..
".
II 0.7
0.'
~f 0.&
0.4
i 0.3
0.2
0.1
0
~1
~.2
1880 2010 2Q3O 2CIiO
3DO
200
i
.
100
!
i
r
&i
i
o
-100
-200
-.]01)
1880
NEW PILE COSTS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
FIVE '/EM 1UfALS ANO POST -2l18li 1UfM.
2010
2Q3O
2070
....-2085
2CIiO
ENDING YEAR FOR PERIOD
2070
paet-2OI&
ENONO YEAR FOR PERIOD
168
-------
EXHmIT 7-3:
PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
(millions of 1985 dollars)
(20 years baseline)
~
en
CD
5 Percent Discount Rate 10 Percent Discount Rate
Alternative Work Practice Cost of Added Cost Cost of Added Cost
For New Impoundments A lternati ve (%) Alternati ve (%)
1. Baseline impoundments 367 19 104 3.0
covered in 5 years (5%) (3%)
2. Phased disposal 363 15 87 -13
(4%) (-13%)
3. Continuous disposal 436 88 109 7.9
I (25%) (8%)
Baseline impoundment 348 - 101 -
covered in 20 years
-------
was described in some detail in Sections 6.2 and 6.3.2 above. The benefits estimates for
existing mills are discussed at the end of this section.
Estimated benefits W1der the 20 year asswnption for the alternative work practices at
the 85 new model mills projected to be on-line in the years 2000 to 2085 are presented
in Exhibits 7-4A, 7-4B, and 7-4C. In these exhibits, baseline fatalities and avoided
fatalities for each alternative are shown for the local, regional and rest of nation
regions and in total for each of the five-year periods. Total health effects over the 85
year period are listed at the bottom of each colwnn. The benefits and cwnulative
benefits at future mill sites are graphed for each alternative in Exhibits 7-5A, 7-5B, and
7 -5C.
A swnmary of the 20 year baseline benefits shown in Exhibits 7-4 is contained in Exhibit
7-6. Comparison of this exhibit to Exhibit 6-15 shows that all three alternative new
impoundment work practices result in substantial fewer benefits when compared to the
40-year baseline estimates.
Under the 20 year asswnption, total baseline fatalities resulting from radon-222
emissions at new future mills are decreased from 312 to 180, a decrease of 42 percent.
This decrease is a result of the shorter asswned period of high emissions from dry
impoundments between cessation of operation and the time of final stabilization. This
decrease in estimated baseline fatalities is reflected in reduced benefits achieved by
the alternative work practices at future mills. Benefits achieved by alternative 1,
covering large single-cell impoundments within five years of filling, are reduced by 50
percent, from 251 to 126. The benefits achieved by phased disposal, alternative 2, are
reduced by 47 percent, from 268 under the 40 year baseline asswnption to 143 under the
revised 20-year baseline asswnption. Benefits for continuous disposal, alternative 3,
are reduced by 45 percent, from 276 to 151.
Because the percent reductions in achieved benefits exceed the percent reduction in
baseline fatalities, the percentage of baseline fatalities avoided by all alternatives
under the 20 year asswnption are slightly lower than the corresponding percentage
reductions achieved under to 40-year baseline asswnption. Hence the effectiveness of
170
-------
EXHffiIT 7-4(A):
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(committed fatal cancers)
(20 year baseline)
A voi ded F atali ti es
baseline COVER IN 5 YEARS
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006-10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011-15 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2016-20 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2021-25 0.2 1.4 2.7 4.3 0.1 1.0 1.9 3.0
2026-30 0.2 1.6 3.0 4.8 0.1 1.1 2.1 3.3
2031-35 0.3 2.3 4.5 7-2 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.7
2036-40 0.4 2.9 5.8 9.1 0.3 2.3 4.4 7.0
2041-45 0.3 2.3 4.4 7.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 4.8
2046-50 0.4 3.0 5.9 9.3 0.2 1.7 3.3 5.2
2051-55 0.5 3.6 7.0 11.1 0.4 2.7 5.4 8.5
2056-60 0.4 2.9 5.6 8.8 0.3 1.9 3.7 5.9
2061-65 0.5 3.6 7.0 11. 0 0.3 2.0 4.0 6.3
2066-70 0.5 4.1 8.0 12.6 0.4 3.0 5.9 9.2
2071-75 0.4 3.3 6.4 10.1 0.3 2.2 4.2 6.7
2076-80 0.5 4.0 7.9 12.5 0.3 2.3 4.4 7.0
2081-85 0.6 4.5 8.8 13.8 0.4 3.2 6.3 10.0
post-2085 2.4 17.4 34.1 53.9 2.0 14.6 28.5 45.1
....==-=========-==z==-=====_z==========z=---===_====az_==--=-=-.a--___-
TOTAL 7-9 58.3 114.2 180.4 5.5 40.6 79.6 125.7
171
-------
EXHmrr 7-4(B):
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
(committed fatal cancers)
(20 year baseline)
Avoided Fatalities
baa.11ne PHASED DISPOSAL
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-51eM 5-801eM RAT lOR TOTAL 0-51eM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
2006-10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
2011-15 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
2016-20 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5
2021-25 0.2 1.4 2.7 4.3 0.1 1.0 2.1 3.2
2026-30 0.2 1.6 3.0 4.8 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.6
2031-35 0.3 2.3 4.5 7.2 0.2 1.7 3.4 5.4
2036-40 0.4 2.9 5.8 9.1 0.3 2.4 4.7 7.5
2041-45 0.3 2.3 4.4 7.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 5.3
2046-50 0.4 3.0 ,.9 9.3 0.3 2.3 4.4 7.0
2051-55 0.5 3.6 7.0 11.1 0.4 2.9 5.7 9.0
2056-60 0.4 2.9 5.6 8.8 0.3 2.1 4.2 6.6
2061-65 0.5 3.6 7.0 11.0 0.4 2.6 5.2 8.1
2066-70 0.5 4.1 8.0 12.6 0.4 3.2 6.3 9.9
2071-75 0.4 3.3 6.4 10.1 0.3 2.4 4.6 7.3
2076-80 0.5 4.0 7.9 12.5 0.4 2.9 5.7 9.1
2081-85 0.6 4.5 8.8 13.8 0.5 3.4 6.7 10.7
poat-2085 2.4 17.4 34.1 53.9 2.1 15.6 30.5 48.1
---------------.------....-.-------------------.----.---------.-.---....
TOTAL 7.9 58.3 114.2 180.4 6.2 46.1 90.3 142.6
172
-------
EXHmIT 7-4(C):
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
A T FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(committed fatal cancers)
(20 year baseline)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
REST OF REST OP
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
2006-10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
2011-15 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
2016-20 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.7 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0
2021-25 0.2 1.4 2.7 4.3 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.5
2026-30 0.2 1.6 3.0 4.8 0.2 1.3 2.5 3.9
2031-35 0.3 2.3 4.5 7.2 0.3 1.9 3.8 6.0
2036-_0 0.4 2.9 5.8 9.1 0.3 2.5 5.0 7.8
20_1-45 0.3 2.3 _.- 7.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 5.6
20_6-50 0.4 3.0 5.9 9.3 0.3 2.5 -.9 7-7
2051-55 0.5 3.6 7.0 11.1 0.4 3.0 5.9 9.-
2056-60 0.4 2.9 5.6 8.8 0.3 2.3 _.4 7-0
2061-65 0.5 3.6 7.0 11. 0 0.4 2.9 5.6 8.9
2066-70 0.5 _.1 8.0 12.6 0.5 3.3 6.6 10.3
2071-75 0.4 3.3 6.4 10.1 0.3 2.5 4.9 7.8
2076-80 0.5 4.0 7.9 12.5 0.4 3.2 6.2 9.8
2081-85 0.6 -.5 8.8 13.8 0.5 3.6 7.0 11.1
p08t-2085 2.4 17.4 34.1 53.9 2.1 15.9 31.1 4-9.1
....._==-==_K._=_=======_a==~==_=-==============-=========--~-=---------
TOTAL 7.9 58.3 114.2 180.4 6.6 48.7 95.4 150.6
173
-------
EXHmrr 7-5(A):
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(20 year baseline)
NEW PILE BENEFITS-COVER IN FIVE YEARS
mE '/EAR tOTALS""O POST-2086 tOT~
eo
46
4D
E J6
S JO
~ 26
~
a 20
g
$ III
10
II
0
18110 2010 2DJO 206D 2070 po8t- 20116
IZZI "Tow. ~ YDR FDA PERIOD
6-«1 Km ~ 0-6 Km
CIMIlATM: 1EHEft1S .., PERIOD
leo
leo
140
lJO
120
i 110
IOD
-10
~ eo
~
a 70
g eo
$ !iO
4D
JO
20
10
0
18110 2010 2DJO 206D 2070 ""-20116
IZZI "Tow. EH~ F'DA PERtOD
11-80 Km ~ 0-6 Km
174
-------
EXHmrr 7-5(B):
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - PHASED DISPOSAL
(20 year baseline)
NEW PILE BENEFITS - PHASED DISPOSAL
FIVE '/£Aft roTALS AHO POST-2D85 roT~
o
181M)
50
40
I!
..
u
~ 30
~
~
a 20
g
$
10
2010
2030
2050
2070
po8t- 201!16
IZZI ""TtDNAL
~ YOA FOR PERlOO
~ 6-80 Km
~ 0-6 Km
Ct.IIUI.A'INE BENEFITS BY !'£RIOO
180
160
140
130
120
fi 110
~ 100
80
~ 80
~ 70
a
g so
$ 60
..
30
20
10
0
181M) 2010 2030 2050
2070
po8t-2085
IZ2I ""TtDNAL
ENDHt1£AR FOR !'£RIOO
~ 6-eO Km
~ 0-6 Km
175
-------
EXHmrr 7-5(C):
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFrrs OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS - CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(20 year baseline)
NEW PILE BENEFITS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
I'M ~ 1UTMS AHO PQST-2ID8& 1UT"L
50
o
1lIIIO
40
i 30
~
~
8 20
Q
i
10
2010
2OJO
2050
2070
"'--2086
IZZI IMTIOIW.
EWIaIJ YDA-FDR PUIIOD
~~Km
~ ~Km
leo
150
'.0
130
120
i 110
100
10
~ eo
~ 70
8
f eo
10
40
30
20
10
0
1lIIIO 2010
IZZI IMTIOIW.
ClAIIlL4'IIVE IIIEHEFI1S BY PUIIOD
2OJO 2050
ENOJItUWI FOR PERIOD
~~Km
2070
pcoooI-2Q86
~ ~Km
176
-------
EXHffilf 7-v:
SUMMAR Y OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACfICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
(20 year baseline)
0-5 Km 5-80 Km Rest of Nation Total
Baseline A voided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline A voided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent
Alternative Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fatalities A voided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided
1. Baseline 7.9 5.5 69% 58.3 40.6 70% 114.2 79.6 70% 180.4 125.7 70%
Impound-
ments (cover
.... in 5 years)
-::J
-::J 2. Phased 7.9 6.2 78% 58.3 46.1 79% 114.2 90.3 79% 180.4 142.6 79%
Disposal
3. Continuous 7.9 6.6 84% 58.3 48.7 84% 114.2 95.4 84% 180.4 150.6 84%
Disposal
-------
alternative 1 in avoiding baseline fatalities falls from 81 percent (Exhibit 6-15) to 70
percent aast column of Exhibit 7-6). Similar, but smaller, reductions in effectiveness
occur for al ternati ves 2 and 3.
7.3 TOTAL COST ESTIMATES: EXISTING MILLS
As for the 40-year baseline analysis, estimates of the total cost of the alternatives at
existing licensed mill sites under the 20 year assumption are derived by comparing the
baseline disposal cost stream with the cost stream recpired for disposal Wlder each
alternative. The additional real resource cost resulting from each alternative is
obtained by subtracting baseline cost from the cost of the alternative in each time
period, then taking the present value of the stream of additional costs. Three types of
cost may be incurred: opportWlity cost associated with moving up the time of final
cover expenses, replacement costs for tailings disposal in new impoundments, and
interim cover costs to the extent these costs are not recoverable at the time of final
stabilization.
A detailed description of procedures for estimating costs at existing mills was
presented in Section 6.3.3 above. Specific assumptions presented there concerning sWlk
costs, replacement costs, and interim cover costs are also applicable to this analysis
under the 20 year assumption.
Estimates of the additional cost of each alternative at existing mills are presented in
Exhibits 7-7 A through 7-7E. The costs in the exhibit are expressed in 1985 dollars, and
the total cost streams are separated into cost streams for final stabilization (cover),
replacement of lost capacity, and interim cover. Baseline cost streams are presented in
the left-most columns, estimated cost streams lDlder each alternative are shown in the
center columns, and the net additional cost stream for the alternative in the right-most
columns. The present values at the bottom of each column were calculated assuming
costs are incurred at the beginning of each five year period. Graphs of the total added
cost streams for each alternative at existing mills are shown in Exhibits 7-8A through
7-8E.
Examination of Exhibits 7-7 A through 7-7E shows that the total added cost stream for
final cover under the 20 year assumption sums to zero, when no discount rate is applied.
178
-------
EXHffirr 7-7(A):
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(millions 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
baSfline 1990 added cost
FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTER IN
PERIOD COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 72 0 72 0 72
1991-95 0 0 0 0 658 72 0 130 658 72 0 130
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 54 0 54 0 54
2001-05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006-10 88 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 -88 0 0 -88
2011-15 439 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -439 0 0 -439
2016-20 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1
2021-25 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2026-30 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2031-35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2036-40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2041-45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2046-50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2011-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
================================================================================================================
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 199 0 856 0 199 0 199
PVOI) 504 0 0 504 626 190 0 816 122 190 0 312
PV(51) 184 0 0 184 515 162 0 611 332 162 0 494
PVOOI) 51 0 0 51 408 138 0 546 351 138 0 489
179
-------
EXHmIT 7-7(B):
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(millions 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
baSt Ii At 1995 addtd (1st
FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTER I" FINAL REPLACE INTERI"
PERIOD COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 72 0 72 0 72
1996-00 0 0 0 0 658 54 0 712 658 54 0 112
2001-05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006-10 88 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 -88 0 0 -88
2011-15 439 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -439 0 0 -439
2016-20 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 -7
2021-25 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2026-30 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2031-35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2036-40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2041-45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2046-50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
============Z===================================================================2==============================:
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 126 0 784 0 126 0 m
PV(U) 504 0 0 504 595 118 0 713 91 118 0 209
PV(5S) 184 0 0 184 404 90 0 494 220 90 0 310
PV(lOS) 57 0 0 57 254 66 0 319 196 66 0 262
180
-------
EXHmIT 7-7{C):
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
(millions 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
baselillf 2000 added cost
fiNAL REPLACE INTERI" fiNAL REPlACE INTER I" fiNAL REPLACE INTERI"
PERIOD COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
191)6-00 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 54 0 54 0 54
2001-05 0 0 0 0 658 0 0 658 658 0 0 658
2006-10 88 0 0 88 0 0 0 0 -88 0 0 -88
2011-15 439 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -439 0 0 -439
2016-20 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 -7
2021-25 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2026-30 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2031-35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2036-40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2041-45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2046-50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
================================================================================================================
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 54 0 712 0 54 0 54
PV(1I) 504 0 0 504 566 49 0 615 62 49 0 111
PV(51) 184 0 0 184 316 33 0 350 133 33 0 166
PV(101) 57 0 0 57 157 21 0 178 100 21 0 121
181
-------
EXHmIT 7-7(D):
COST OF ACHffiVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(millions 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
huh", 2005 add!d cost
FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI"
PERIOD COVER "EMT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "EMT COVER TOTAL
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001-05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2006-10 88 0 0 88 658 0 0 658 570 0 0 570
2011-15 439 0 0 439 0 0 0 0 -439 0 0 -439
2016-20 7 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 -7
2021-25 41 0 0 41 0 0 0 0 -41 0 0 -41
2026-30 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 -83 0 0 -83
2031-35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2036-40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2041-45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2046-50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
================================================================================================================
TOTAL 658 0 0 658 658 0 0 658 0 0 0 0
PVOI) 504 0 0 504 539 0 0 539 35 0 0 35
PV(51) 184 0 0 184 248 0 0 248 64 0 0 64
PWOOI) 57 0 0 57 98 0 0 98 40 0 0 40
182
-------
EXHmIT 7-7(E):
COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
(millions of 1985 dollars)
(20 year baseline)
basrlinr INTERI" ONLY addrd cost
FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI" FINAL REPLACE INTERI"
PER I OD COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL COVER "ENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 21 0 0 21 21
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 68 0 0 68 68
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 32 0 0 32 32
2001-05 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 46 0 0 46 46
2006-10 88 0 0 88 88 0 30 118 0 0 30 30
2011-15 439 0 0 439 439 0 5 444 0 0 5 5
2016-20 7 0 0 7 7 0 5 12 0 0 5 5
2021-25 41 0 0 41 41 0 3 44 0 0 3 3
2026-30 83 0 0 83 83 0 0 83 0 0 0 0
2031-35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2036-40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2041-45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2046-50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
============================================================================================================::::
TOT AL 658 0 0 658 658 0 211 869 0 0 211 211
PV(t S ) 504 0 0 504 504 0 189 693 0 0 189 189
PV(5S) 184 0 0 184 184 0 131 315 0 0 131 131
PV(10S) 57 0 0 57 57 0 92 150 0 0 92 92
183
-------
EXHmlr 7-8(A):
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHmVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(20 year baseline)
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
FINAL COVER BY 1880
8DO
700
eoo
,.., (jQ()
I 400
po
.
i 300
'W'
~ 200
100
..
~ 0
1/1
6 -100
-200
-300
-400
-(JOO
1880 2006 2O'lO 2036 2060
2085
2080
ENOINGY£ARFORPERIOD
184
-------
EXH mrr 7 -8(B):
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(20 year baseline)
800
700
800
" eoo
II
Gt 400
...
.
E .!CO
....,.
0 200
i 100
III
a.
t 0
In
~ -100
-200
-JOO
-400
-fiOQ
1890 2005 2020 2035 2050
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
nw.. COVER BY 1995
2065
2080
ENDING YE'AR FOR P£RIOO
185
-------
EXHmrr 7-8(C):
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHffiVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
(20 year baseline)
ANAL COVER B'f 2000
eoo
700
eoo
" fiOO
i 400
po
.
~ 300
E
....,
i 200
100
...
a.
~ 0
18
ft -100
-200
-300
-400
-fiOO
1880 2005 2020 2036 2060
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
2066
2080
£NDINO YE'AR FOR PERIOD
186
-------
EXHmIT 7-8(D):
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(20 year basp.line)
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
FINAL COVER BY 2005
BOO
700
eoo
...... fj()()
&J
. 400
...
.
i 300
"oJ
a 200
Q
I: 100
tot
A.
~ 0
(II
~ -100
-200
-300
-400
-500
1880 2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
ENDING YE"AR FOR PERIOD
187
-------
i
200
180
180
170
1eo
1eo
140
130
120
110
100
80
80
70
eo
60
40
30
20
10
o
1880
...
.
=:
E
"
i
w
..
Ii
i
EXH mrr 7 -8(E):
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
(20 year baseline)
COSTS FOR EXISTING IMPOUNDMENTS
INTERIM COVER O""Y
2006
2020
2060
2065
2080
2036
ENDING YEAR FOR PERIOD
188
-------
However, the present value cost of final cover is positive for all discount rates greater
than zero. This unlEual result also occurs in the 40 year analysis and was discussed in
Section 6.3.3.
The detailed results for the 20 year analysis presented in Exhibits 7-7 are swnmarized
in Exhibit 7-9. The summary table shows the present value of the total social costs
incurred by requiring the al ternati ve work practices at existing m ills. The present
value cost of required expenditures for each cost category and total costs at 5 percent
and 10 percent discount rates are shown for each alternative, where applicable.
Alternatives which require final cover before 2005 have costs for replacement capacity,
while the other al ternati ves do not require replacem ent of existing disposal capacity
due to assumption that all existing mills cease operations by the year 2000.
Comparison of Exhibit 7-9 with the 40 year baseline results presented in Exhibit 6-19
shows that the change to a 20 year baseline asswnption reduces the values of type 2
costs for final stabilization. This reduction occurs because these type 2 costs are
moved up in time by 20 fewer years, resulting in a smaller opportunity cost. Type 1
costs for interim cover only are also reduced due to the shorter period of required
maintenance on these interim covers. These reductions in present value costs are more
substantial at a 5 percent discount rate compared to a 10 percent rate. Comparison
with the 40 year baseline results presented in Exhibit 6-19 shows that the opportunity
cost of earlier final stabilization is lower under the 20 year baseline for alternatives 1
through 4. The cost of alternative 5, interim cover only, is also lower. At a 5 percent
discount rate, total costs of alternative 1 are reduced 19 percent from the 40 year
results (See Exhibit 6-19). At a 10 percent rate of discount, costs are reduced only 9
percent. The equivalent reductions in total costs for alternatives 2, 3, and 4,
respectively, are: 27 percent, 41 percent, and 76 percent at a 5 percent rate of
discount; and 16 percent, 29 percent and 45 percent at a 10 percent discount rate.
Although the cost of each of the alternatives 1 through 4 are reduced by adopting the
20 year baseline asswnption over the 40 year baseline asswnption, alternatives 2, 3 and
4 are reduced by succeedingly larger proportions. This is due to the fact that
alternatives which require later dates of final stabilization have a higher percentage of
type 2 costs than alternatives with earlier dates.
Costs for interim cover only at existing impoundments, alternative 5, are also reduced
by the change to a 20 year baseline. As noted above, this is due to the shorter
189
-------
EXHmrr 7-9:
PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION
OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES
(20 year beseline)
.....
CD
o
5 Percent DiscoWtt 10 Percent DiscoWtt
Type 2a Type Ib Type 1 Type 2 Type 1 Type 1
Final R eplacem ent Interim Total Final R eplacem ent Interim Total
Control Alternative S tabili za ti on I mpoWtdm ents S tabil i za ti on Cost S tabiliza ti on I mpoWtdm ents S tabiliza tion Cost
1. ReCJ!ire new technology now, 332 162 NA 494 351 138 NA 489
achieve final stabilization by 1990.
2. ReCJ!ire new technology by 1990, 220 90 NA 310 196 66 NA 262
achieve final stabilization by 1995.
3. ReCJ!ire new technology by 1995, 133 33 NA 166 100 21 NA 121
achieve final stabilization by 2000. i
4. ReCJ!ire new technology by 2000, 64 NA NA 64 I 40 NA NA 40
I
achieve final stabilization by 2005. ~
,
5. Interi m stabilization only (I meter NA NA : 131 131 I NA NA 92 92
!
Present Value Cost
(millions of 1985 dollars)
8.rype 2 costs represents the time value or the opportWtity cost of stabilizing an impoWtdment sooner than it would have been stabilized in the absence of EPA action.
borype I costs are due to the loss of disposal capacity in impoundments at existing mills and the nonrecoverable cost of interim stabilization.
Note.: Detail may not add to totals due to independent roWtding.
-------
maintenance period required in the 20 year scenario. Costs at a 5 percent discount fall
13 percent, when compared to the equivalent cost under the 40 year assumption shown
in Exhibit 6-19. At a 10 percent discount rate, the change is less, only 5 percent.
7.4 TafAL BENEFITS ESTIMATES - EXISTING MILLS
The benefits of reduced radon-222 emissions resulting from adoption of the recom-
mended work practices at existing licensed uranium mills were presented in Exhibit 6-9.
These benefits occur due to earlier final stabilization o~ existing impoundments at
current mill sites, and due to reduced operating emissions during disposal of future
tailings generated at these mills. The magnitude of the estimated benefits presented in
Chapter 6 is strongly affected by the baseline assumption that existing impoundments
will remain in a dry, uncovered status for 40 years before final stabilization. In this
section a sensitivity analysis is conducted using a 20 year baseline assumption.
As for the 40 year scenario, estimates of baseline and avoided fatal lung cancers due to
radon-222 emissions at existing mills under the 20 year baseline are presented in
Exhibits 7-10A through 7-10E for each alternative 'date of final stabilization at existing
impoundments and for interim cover only. The avoided fatalities are reported in five-
year periods for the local area (0-5 kilometers), the local region (5-80 kilometers), and
for the rest of the nation. These estimates were developed by summing the site-
specific health effects estimats presented in Exhibit 6-9, given the time pattern of
future operations of existing mills implied by the baseline low-production scenario.
For alternatives which require final cover before 2005, the early closure of existing
impoundments requires an earlier dry-out period which would not occur in the absence
of this regulation. The higher emissions of these impoundments while drying cause
negative benefits in the period preceding the date of final stabilization. These
alternatives also require the construction of additional'replacement impoundments,
causing small negative benefits in the period after .2045. These effects were also
encountered in the 40 year analysis of Chapter 6. The benefits at existing mills under
the 20 year scenario are graphed in Exhibits 7-11A through 7-11E.
191
-------
EXHmrr 7-10(A):
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABll..IZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(committed fatal cancers)
(20 year baseline)
Avoided Fatalities
b..eline 1990
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.4 10.4 16.5 -0.1 -0.5 -1. 0 -1.6
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 0.8 6.4 12.2 19.4
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 0.8 6.5 12.7 19.9
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.8 6.9 13.6 21. ..
2006-10 0.8 6.2 12.4 19." 0.8 5.9 11.8 18."
2011-15 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.1 1.3 3.0 4.5
2016-20 0.2 1.6 3." 5.2 0.1 1.3 2.8 4.2
2021-25 0.2 1.5 2.4 ".1 0.1 1.2 1.8 3.1
2026-30 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2031-35 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2036-40 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
20"1-"5 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
----------------------------------~=------------------~-----------------
TOTAL 11.9 40.3 78.7 124.0 3.4 28.5 55.8 87.7
192
-------
EXHmrr 7-10(B):
BENEFITS OF ACHmVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(committed fatal cancers)
(20 year baseline)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline 1995
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.4 10.4 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 -0.1 -0.5 -1. 0 -1.6
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 0.8 6.5 12.7 20.0
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.8 7.0 13.6 21. 4
2006-10 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.8 5.9 11. 8 18.5
2011-15 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.1 1.3 3.0 4.5
2016-20 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 1.3 2.8 4.3
2021-25 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 1.2 1.8 3.1
2026-30 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2031-35 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2036-40 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2041-45 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
...._=-----=------==------------------~------------------=--------------
TOTAL 4.9 40.3 78.7 124.0 2.7 22.3 43.9 68.8
193
-------
EXHIBIT 7-10(C):
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
(committed fatal cancers)
(20 year baseline)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline 2000
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.4 10.4 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.8 7.0 13.6 21..
2006-10 0.8 6.2 12.11 19.4 0.8 5.9 11. 9 18.5
2011-15 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.11 0.2 1.3 3.0 11.5
2016-20 0.2 1.6 3.11 5.2 0.1 1.3 2.8 11.3
2021-25 0.2 1.5 2.11 11.1 0.1 1.2 1.8 3.2
2026-30 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2031-35 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2036-110 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2041-45 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
::'076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.0 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1
-==--~==c_------=-==--===-~==c===-=-=--=~-._----=.==---------------_z.-
""OTAL 11.9 40.3 78.7 1211.0 1.9 16.0 31. 9 119.8
194
-------
EXHmIT 7-10(D):
BENEFITS OF ACHffiVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(20 year baseline)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline 2005
REST OF REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.7 5.4 10.4 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.9 7.2 14.2 22.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2006-10 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.8 5.9 11. 9 18.6
2011-15 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.2 1.4 3.1 4.6
2016-20 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 1.4 2.9 4.4
2021-25 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 1.3 1.8 3.3
2026-30 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2031-35 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2036-40 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2041-45 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0..5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066-70 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071-75 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
=_z==-==-=======================================================--_z_---
TOTAL 4.9 40.3 78.7 124.0 1.2 9.9 19.7 30.8
195
-------
EXHmfr 7-10(E):
BENEFITS OF INTERIM STABILIZATION
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
(20 year baseline)
Avoided Fatalities
baa.line INTERIM ONLY
REST OF REST OF
PERI.OD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION TOTAL
1986-90 0.1 5.4 10.4 16.5 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.9
1991-95 0.8 6.8 12.9 20.5 0.3 2.1 3.8 6.2
1996-00 0.8 6.8 13.3 20.9 0.2 1.4 2.8 4.3
2001-05 0.9 1.2 14.2 22.3 0.3 2.6 5.3 8.2
2006-10 0.8 6.2 12.4 19.4 0.3 2.5 5.0 1.8
2011-15 0.2 1.6 3.6 5.4 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.8
2016-20 0.2 1.6 3.4 5.2 0.1 0.8 1.1 2.6
2021-25 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.9
2026-30 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2031-35 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2036-40 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2041-45 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2046-50 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2051-55 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056-60 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061-65 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066-10 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011-15 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2016-80 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081-85 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
---______DZ_____--------____==E=_=___-====---_Z_-=---===a-_===-==-------
TOTAL 4.9 40.3 18.1 124.0 1.5 11. 6 22.1 35.8
196
-------
EXHmIT 7-11(A):
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHillVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(20 year baseline)
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 1990
AVE 'rEM TOTALS
26
24
22
20
I! 18
III
U 16
~
~ 14
~ 12
B 10
Ii!
$ 8
e
4
2
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2060 2066 2080
IZZJ NfoTIONAL ~ YFAR FOR PERIOD ~ 0-6 KIn
6-80 Km
197
-------
EXHmlr 7-11(B):
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABll..IZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(20 year baseline)
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 1995
FNE YEAR TOTALS
28
24
22
20
I 18
III
0 18
~
~ '4
~ 12
Ii) 10
g
$ 8
8
..
2
0
1880 2005 2C7ZO 2036 2050 2065 2C8O
IZZJ tMTIOtW. ~ YEAR FOR PERIOD
6-80 Km ~ 0-5 Km
198
-------
EXHIDIT 7-11(C):
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHmVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
(20 year baseline)
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 2000
FM: YEAR TOTALS
26
24
22
20
! 18
0 16
~
~ ,.
~ 12
a 10
iii
$ 8
6
4
2
0
1 9SM) 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080
~ YEAR FDA PERIOD
IZZJ .-TIONAL 5-80 Km ~ 0-5 Km
199
-------
EXHmlr 7-11(D):
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(20 year baseline)
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: FINAL COVER BY 2005
FNE VEAR TOTM.S
28
24
22
20
I 18
18
~
~ 14
~ 12
a 10
g
~ 8
e
4
2
0
1880 2006 2020 2036 20150 2065 2OBO
IZ2J tMTIOtW. ~ YE'AR FOR PERIOD ~ 0-6 KIn
6-80 Km
200
-------
EXHmIT 7-11(E):
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM STABILIZATION
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
(20 year baseline)
BENEFITS BY PERIOD: INTERIM COVER ONLY
FM: YEAR TOTALS
28
24
2~
20
B 18
() 18
~
~ 14
~ 12
a 10
g
$ 8
e
4
2
0
1880 2005 2020 2035 2OISO 2065 2080
~ YE'AR FDR PERIOD
IZZJ *TIONAL 6-80 Km ~ 0-5 I
-------
Exhibit 7-12 summarizes the estimated benefits of each alternative. In this exhibit,
avoided fatalities in the local, regional, and rest of nation categories are compared for
each alternative. Significant reductions in baseline fatal cancer incidence rates are
also achievable in the 20 year scenario by requiring the recommended work practices at
all existing and future uranium mills, beginning now or at some near time in the future.
The percent of baseline fatal cancers avoided by the alternatives in the 40 year
scenario ranged from 36 percent for interim cover only to 83 percent for final
stabilization by 1990 (See Exhibit 6-22). In the 20 year scenario, baseline fatalities are
significantly reduced due to the shorter period of emissions from dry impoundments
after they are no longer used. However, the efficiency of the alternatives in mitigating
the baseline health effects ranges from 25 percent for alternative 4 to 70 percent for
alternative 1. This range of effectiveness is approximately 10 percentage points lower
in the 20 year scenario than in the 40 year scenario.
202
-------
EXHmIT 7-12:
FATALITIES AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF FINAL STABILIZATION
(20 year baseline)
0-5Km 5-80 Km Rest of Nation Total
Avoided Percent Avoided Percent A voided Percent A voided Percent
Control Alternative F ataliti es Avoided F atali ti es A voided Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Avoided
1. Require new teclmology now, 3 60% 29 73% 56 71% 88 70%
achieve final stabilization by
1990.
N 2. Require new tecimology by 1990, 3 60% 22 55% 44 56% 69 55%
o
t.:I achieve final stabilization by
1995.
3. Require new teclmology by 1995, 2 40% 16 40% 32 41% 50 40%
achieve final stabilization by
2000.
4. Require new techr\oIogy by 2000, 1 20% 10 25% 20 25% 31 25%
achieve final stabilization by
2005.
5. Interim stabilization only 2 40% 12 30% 23 29% 36 29%
(1 meter)
6. Baseline Fatalities 5 40 79 125
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to independent roWtding.
-------
CHAPTER 8:
SENSrrIVrry ANAL YSJS
The estimated costs and benefits of the al ternati ve work practices presented in the
previous sections were calculated for existing and future mills based on a set of
assumptions which collectively form the reference case. The sensitivity of the
estimated costs and benefits to a change in the 40 year reference case assumption was
presented in Chapter 7 above. Other reference case assumptions to be examined
include the low demand forecast which affects the number of mills in operation, the
design type of future impoundments (whether above or below grade), and the severity of
health effects resulting from radon-222 emissions from these impoundments. In this
section, the sensitivity of the reference case cost and benefit estimates to a change in
each of these assumptions is examined. The total cost estimates presented in Section
6.3 under the reference case set of assumptions are sensi tive to changes in the number
of operating mills, and the design type assumed for the impoundment. (The present
value costs are also sensitive to the assumed discount rate. All results in the previous
section were presented at a 5% and 10% real discount rate. This convention will be
continued in the sensitivity analysis.) The estimated total benefits are sensitive to the
number of operating mills and the number of fatal lung cancers expected from the
radon-222 releases. The sensitivity analyses conducted in this section are summarized
in Exhibit 8-1.
The sensitivity analyses are conducted by varying one assumption, while holding the
other assumptions at the reference case value. This procedure measures the sensitivity
of the estimated cost and benefit to changes in each assumption individually, and does
not generate estimates for all possible combinations of values for the entire set of
assumptions. The latter procedure is lU1manageable due to the large number of possible
combinations which can be constructed by considering all variations of each assumption
si m ul taneousl y.
8.1 SENSrrIVrry OF ESTIMA TED COSTS TO ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS
Estimated total costs presented in Section 6.3 for existing and future mills were
developed under the reference case set of assumptions shown in Exhibit 8-1. A
204
-------
EXHIBIT 8-1:
SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR COSTS AND BENEFITS(a)
I Alternative Assumptions
Type of Assumption Reference Case Costs Benefi ts
1. Level of production Low production (a) High production (a) High production
2. Design type Below grade (b) Partially below grade N/A
I
) 3. Health effects 760 fatal cancers/ N/A (c) 380 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
I factor million-person- WLM (d) 1520 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
j
t..:I
o
c.ro
(a)The sensitivity analyses are based on the 40-year baseline case presented in Chapter 6. The sensitivity of changing the 40-year
assumption to 20 years was presented in detail in Chapter 7.
-------
summary of the estimated total costs for future mills was presented in Exhibit 6-12
using the 40-year baseline assumption, for each alternative work practice. A summary
of estimated total costs at existing mills under the 40 year assumption was presented in
Exhibit 6-19, for each of five alternatives. The sensitivity analysis presents results for
these alternatives: cover by 1990, cover by 1995, cover by 2000, cover by 2005, and
interim cover only. The summary total cost tables for new and existing mills are
recalculated in this sensitivity analysis for each of these five alternatives, under each
of the revised cost assumptions shown in Exhibit 8-1.
The revised summary total cost tables for future mills are shown in Exhibits 8-2A, and
8-2B for the high production, and partially below grade assumptions, respectively. For
the continuous disposal partially-below grade sensitivity analysis, the single-cell design
is used since this is the more economical option. Exhibits 8-3A, and 8-3B contain the
revised summary total cost estimates for existing mills, under the same variations of
the reference case assumptions which affect the cost estimates.
8.2 SENSITIVITY OF ESTIMATED BENEFITS TO ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS
Benefits resulting from the alternative work practices were presented in Section 6.3.
These estimates were derived using the reference case set of assumptions shown in
Exhibit 8-1. A summary of estimated total benefits of the alternative work practices
at future mills was presented in Exhibit 6-15. A summary of estimated total benefits at
existing mills was presented in Exhibit 6-22, for each of five alternatives. Recal-
culations of the estimated total benefits for the sensitivity analysis of these
alternatives were based on the revised assumptions affecting benefits, as shown in
Exhibit 8-1.
The revised summary total benefits tables for future mills are shown in Exhibits 8-4A,
8-4B, and 8-4C for the high production scenario, and the revised health-effects factors
of 380 and 1520 fatal cancers per million-person-WLM, respectively. Revised total
benefits tables for existing mills are presented in Exhibits 8-5A, 8-5B, and 8-5C.
206
-------
EXHmIT 8-2(A):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION
(millions 1985 dollars)
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal Continuous Disposal
Reference Alternative Reference Alter.native Reference Alternative
Period Case( *) Case(**) Case Case Case Case
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001-05 0 0 -164 -225 -123 -169
2006-10 0 0 95 118 129 167
2011-15 0 0 122 163 147 203
2016-20 0 0 -130 -193 -102 -143
2021-25 63 87 120 154 150 211
~ 2026-30 8 16 136 222 168 281
o
-:J
2031-35 8 16 -116 165 -82 -99
2036-40 71 110 155 201 186 271
2041-45 16 39 136 268 171 341
2046-50 16 32 -97 -134 -64 -57
2051-55 79 133 152 232 189 312
2056-60 16 55 153 317 189 397
2061-65 -39 -39 -163 -186 -124 -105
2066-70 71 133 161 235 199 317
2071-75 16 55 163 338 199 418
2076-80 -47 -55 -168 -209 -132 -126
2081-85 71 118 155 210 191 296
Post-2085 -347 -700 -157 -213 -197 -295
TOTAL 0 0 553 1135 1092 2225
PV(1 %) 105 210 353 695 681 1336
PV(5%) 26 44 22 38 95 161
PV(10%) 3.5 5.3 -13 -21 8.3 12.8
(*) Reference Case: Low Production
t**) Alternative Case: High Production
-------
EXHmIT 8-2(B):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS: PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE DISPOSAL
(million of 1985 dollars)
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal Continuous Disposal
Reference Alternative Reference Alternative Reference Alternative
Period Case( *) Case(**) Case Case Case Case
1986-90 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991-95 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996-00 0 0 0 0 0 0
2001-05 0 0 -164 -75 -123 -55
2006-10 0 0 95 86 129 93
2011-15 0 0 122 113 147 105
2016-20 0 0 -130 -28 -102 -37
2021-25 63 82 120 121 150 110
2026-30 8 10 136 135 168 123
to.:)
~~
00 2031-35 8 10 -116 -6 -82 -19
2036-40 71 92 155 153 186 135
2041-45 16 20 136 145 171 128
2046-50 16 20 -97 12 -64 -7
2051-55 79 102 152 159 189 141
2056-60 16 21 153 161 189 141
2061-65 -39 -51 -163 -64 -124 -83
2066-70 71 92 161 165 199 143
2071-75 16 21 163 167 199 143
2076-80 -47 -61 -168 -70 -132 -94
2081-85 71 92 155 156 191 133
Post-2085 -347 -451 -157 -322 -197 -445
TOTAL 0 0 553 1010 1092 656
PV(1 %) 105 136 353 677 681 520
PV(5%) 26 33 22 105 95 100
PV(10%) 3.5 4.5 -13 13 8.3 17
(*) Reference Case: Entirely below grade disposal
(**) Alternative Case: Partially below grade disposal
-------
EXH rnrr 8-3(A):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS AT EXISTING MILLS: HIGHER PRODUCTION
(m illi OIlS 1985 dollars)
Cover by 1990 Cover by 1995 Cover by 2000 Cover by 2005 Interim Only
Reference A Iterna ti ve Reference A Iterna ti ve Ref erence A Iternati ve Ref erence A Iternati ve Reference A Iternati ve
Period Case(.) Case(") Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
1986-90 72 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 21
1991-95 730 729 72 72 0 0 0 0 68 64
1996-00 54 72 712 729 54 72 0 0 32 31
2001-05 0 0 0 0 658 658 0 0 46 43
2006-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 658 657 35 38
2011-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24
2016-20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24
2021-25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24
2026-30 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 19 19
N 2031-35 -439 -412 -439 -412 -439 -412 -439 -412 5 6
<:> 2036-40 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 5 6
to 2041-45 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 3 4
2046-50 -83 -109 -83 -109 -83 -109 -83 -109 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056.-u 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pes t-2085 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 199 247 126 175 54 72 0 0 307 305
PV(1 %) 403 427 300 325 202 222 126 134 258 255
PV(5%) 608 621 424 437 280 293 179 180 151 147
PV(10%) 538 545 311 318 170 177 89 90 97 94
(.) Reference Case: Low Production
(..) Alternative Case: Higher Production
-------
EXHmrr 8-3(B):
RESULTS OF COST SENSrrlVrry ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS: PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 dollars)
Cover by 1990 Cover by 1995 Cover by 2000 Cover by 2005(a) Interim Only(a)
Reference A I terna ti ve Ref erence Alternative Ref erence Alternative Reference A lternati ve Ref erence Alternative
Period Case(.) Case(..) Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
1986-90 72 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 21
1991-95 730 707 72 50 0 0 0 0 68 68
1996-i10 54 37 712 694 54 37 0 0 32 32
2001-05 0 0 0 0 658 658 0 0 46 46
2006-10 0 0 0 8 0 0 658 658 35 35
2011-15 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 24 24
2016-20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24
2021-25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24
2026-30 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 -88 19 19
2031-35 -439 -439 -439 -439 -439 -439 -439 -439 5 5
to.) 2036-40 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 5 5
..... 2041-45 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 -41 3 3
o
2046-50 -83 -83 -83 -83 -83 -83 -83 -83 0 0
2051-55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2056-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2061-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2066-70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2071-75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2076-80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2081-85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P(IIt-2085 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 199 137 126 87 54 37 0 0 308 308
PV(l %) 403 344 300 264 202 187 126 126 258 258
PV(5%) 608 558 424 397 280 270 179 179 151 151
PV(lO%) 538 495 311 290 170 163 89 89 97 97
(.) Reference Case: Entirely below grade disposal
(..) Alternative Case: Partially below grade disposal
(a) No change in costs since new replacement impowdments are not re
-------
EXHIBIT 8-4'{A):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT FUTURE MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION
(avoided fatal cancers)
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal Continuous Disposal
Reference Alternative Reference Alternative Reference Alternative
Period Case( *) Case(**) Case Case Case Case
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
2006-10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
2011-15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
2016-20 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.8
2021-25 3.0 4.1 3.2 2.9 3.5 5.1
2026-30 3.3 4.8 3.6 3.4 3.9 5.9
to.:! 2031-35 3.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 6.0 9.2
.....
..... 2036-40 7.0 10.7 7.5 7.5 7.8 12.5
2041-45 7.8 12.5 8.2 8.6 8.6 14.2
2046-50 8.8 14.0 10.3 10.9 11.0 18.4
2051-55 12.2 20.3 12.7 13.8 13.1 22.7
2056-60 12.9 22.9 13.6 15.3 14.0 25.1
2061-65 11.1 21.0 13.0 15.6 13.7 26.0
2066-70 14.4 27.3 15.1 18.5 15.5 30.2
2071-75 15.2 29.9 15.8 19.9 16.3 32.4
2076-80 12.9 27.3 15.0 19.7 15.7 32.5
2081-85 16.3 32.8 16.9 22.1 17.4 36.0
Post-2085 123.1 242.0 126.1 249.0 127.1 252.0
TOTAL 251. 3 476.0 268.2 510.4 276.3 527.0
(*) Reference Case: Low Production
(**) Alternative Case: High Production
-------
EXH mrr 8-4(B):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSJS AT FUTURE MILLS: 380 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
(avoided fatal cancers)
Single Cell- Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal Continuous Disposal
Reference A lternati ve Ref erence Alternative Ref erence Alternative
Period Case(*) Case(**) Case Case Case Case
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-{)O 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
2006-10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 .2
2011-15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 .2
2016-20 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.7 2.0 1.0
2021-25 3.0 1.5 3.2 1.6 3.5 1.7
2026-30 3.3 1.6 3.6 1.8 3.9 1.9
~ 2031-35 3.7 1.8 5.4 2.7 6.0 3.0
....
~ 2036-40 7.0 3.5 7.5 3.8 7.8 3.9
2041-45 7.8 3.9 8.2 4.1 8.6 4.3
2046-50 8.5 4.2 10.3 5.2 11.0 5.5
2051-55 12.2 6.1 12.7 6.3 13.1 6.6
2056-60 12.9 6:4 13.6 6.8 14.0 7.0
2061-65 11.1 5.6 13.0 6.5 13.7 6.9
2066-70 14.4 7.2 15.1 7.6 15.5 7.8
2071-75 15.2 7.6 15.8 7.9 16.3 8.1
2076-80 12.9 6.5 15.0 7.5 15.7 7.8
2081-85 16.3 8.2 16.9 8.4 17.4 8.7
Post-2085 123.1 6.6 126.1 63.0 127.1 63.5
TOTAL 251.3 125.6 268.2 134.1 276.3 138.1
(*) Reference Case: 760 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(**) Alternative Case: 380 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
-------
EXHmIT 8-4(C):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSJS AT FUTURE MILLS: 1520 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
(avoided fatal cancers)
Single Cell- Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal Continuous Disposal
Ref erence Alternative Ref erence Alternative Reference Alternative
Period Case(*) Case(**) Case Case Case Case
1986-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1991-95 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1996-00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2001-05 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4
2006-10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6
2011-15 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6
2016-20 0.0 0.0 1.5 3.0 2.0 4.0
2021-25 3.0 6.0 3.2 6.4 3.5 7.0
2026-30 3.3 6.6 3.6 7.2 3.9 7.8
N
....
w 2031-35 3.7 7.4 5.4 10.8 6.0 12.0
2036-40 7.0 14.0 7.5 15.0 7.8 15.6
2041-45 7.8 15.6 8.2 16.4 8.6 17.2
2046-50' 8.5 17.0 10.3 20.6 11.0 22.0
2051-55 12.2 24.4 12.7 25.4 13.1 26.2
2056-60 12.9 25.8 13.6 27.2 14.0 28.0
2061-65 11.1 22.2 13.0 26.0 13.7 27.4
2066-70 14.4 28.8 15.1 30.2 15.5 31.0
2071-75 15.2 30.4 15.8 31.6 16.3 32.6
2076-80 12.9 25.8 15.0 30.0 15.7 31.4
2081-85 16.3 32.6 16.9 33.8 17.4 34.8
Post-2085 123.1 246.2 126.1 252.2 127.1 254.2
TOTAL 251.3 502.6 268.2 536.4 276.3 552.6
(*) Reference Case: 760 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(**) Alternative Case: 1520 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
-------
F.XHmrr 8-5(A):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSrrlVrry ANALYSE AT EXISTING MILLS: HIGHER PRODUCTION
(avoided fatal cancers)
Cover by 1990 Cover by 1995 Cover by 2000 Cover by ~005 Interim Only
'Reference A lternati ve Reference Alternative R ef erence Alternative Reference Alternative Ref erence Alternative
Period Cue(8) Case(88) Case Case Case Case Case Case Cue Case
1986-90 -1.6 -1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9
1991-95 19.4 18.7 -1.6 -1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 5.7
1996-00 19.9 19.1 20.0 19.4 -1.1 -1.5 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.3
2001-05 21.4 20.9 21.4 21.1 21.4 21.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 7.6
2006-10 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 10.1 10.1
2011-15 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 10.1 10.1
2016-20 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 10.1 10.1
2021-25 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 10.1 10.1
2026-30 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.6 7.8 7.8
2031-35 4.5 5.5 4.5 5.7 4.5 5.6 4.6 5.7 2.8 3.4
N 2036-40 4.2 5.3 4.3 5.5 4.3 5.3 4.4 5.4 2.6 3.2
~ 2041-45 3.1 4.2 3.1 4.3 3.2 4.2 3.3 4.3 1.9 2.5
~
2046-50 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2051-55 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056~0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061-65 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066-'10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071-75 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076~0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081-85 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 177.4 177.9 158.5 159.7 140.0 142.0 121. 0 124.0 76.0 77.0
(8) Reference Case: Low Production
(88) Alternative Case: Higher Production
Note: Detail may not add to totals me to independent rol8lding.
-------
EXHmrr 8-5(B):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSrrlVrrY ANALYSE AT EXISTING MILLS: 380 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
(avoided fatal cancers)
Cover by 1990 Cover by 1995 Cover by 2000 Cover by 2005 Interim Only
Reference Alternative Reference Alternative Reference Alternative Reference Alternative Reference Alternative
Period Case(*) Case(**) Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
1986-90 -1.6 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.9
1991-95 19.4 9.7 -1.6 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 3.1
1996-00 19.9 10.0 20.0 10.0 -1.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0 4.3 2.2
2001-05 21.4 10.7 21.4 10.7 21.4 10.7 0.0 0.0 8.2 4.1
2006-10 22.3 11.1 22.3 11.2 22.3 11.2 22.4 11.2 10.1 5.1
2011-15 22.3 11.1 22.3 11.2 22.3 11.2 22.4 11.2 10.1 5.1
2016-20 22.3 11.1 22.3 11.2 22.3 11.2 22.4 11.2 10.1 5.1
2021-25 22.3 11.1 22.3 11.2 22.3 11.2 22.4 11.2 10.1 5.1
2026-30 18.4 9.2 18.5 9.2 18.5 9.2 18.6 9.3 7.8 3.9
2031-35 4.5 2.2 4.5 2.2 4.5 2.3 4.6 2.3 2.8 1.4
2036-40 4.2 2.1 4.3 2.1 4.3 2.2 4.4 2.2 2.6 1.3
N 2041-45 3.1 1.6 3.1 1.6 3.2 1.6 3.3 1.6 1.9 0.9
.-
U1
2046-50 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2051-55 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056-60 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061-65 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066-70 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071-75 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076-80 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081-85 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 177 89 158 79 141 70 121 60 76 38
(*) Reference Case: 760 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(**) Alternative Case: 380 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
Note: Detail may not add to total due to independent rOWlding.
-------
EXHIBrr 8-5(C):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSrrIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS: 1520 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
(avoided fatal cancers)
Cover by 1990 Cover by 1995 Cover by 2000 Cover by 2005 Interim Only
Reference Alternative Ref erence A lterna ti ve Ref erence Alternative Ref erence A lterna ti ve Ref erence Alternative
Period Cuel.) Cue(") Cue Case Cue Cue Cue Cue Cue Cue
1986-90 -1.6 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 3.8
1991-95 19.4 38.9 -1.6 -3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 12.4
1996-00 19.9 39.9 20.0 39.9 -),1 -2.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 8.7
2001-05 21.4 42.7 21.4 42.8 21.4 42.8 0.0 0.0 8.2 16.5
2006-10 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.7 22.4 44.8 10.1 20.3
2011-15 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.7 22.4 44.8 10.1 20.3
2016-20 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.7 22.4 44.8 10.1 20.3
2021-25 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.6 22.3 44.7 22.4 44.8 10.1 20.3
~ 2026-30 18.4 36.9 18.5 36.9 18.5 37.0 18.6 37.2 7.8 15.7
.-
en 2031-35 4.5 8.9 4.5 9.0 4.5 9.0 4.6 9.2 2.8 5.5
2036-40 4.2 8.5 4.3 8.6 4.3 8.6 4.4 8.8 2.6 5.3
2041-45 3.1 6.2 3.1 6.3 3.2 6.3 3.3 6.5 1.9 3.8
2046-50 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2051-55 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056-60 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061-65 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066-70 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071-75 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076-80 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081-85 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 177 355 158 317 141 279 121 241 76 153
(.) Reference Case: 760 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(..) Alternative Case: 1520 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
-------
CHAPTER 9:
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Any regulatory alternative will increase the cost of domestically produced U 308. The
amount of this impact will depend on the regulation selected. If it were determined
that the 1984 present value of the additional cost for future and existing disposal was
$630 million at a 10 percent discount rate, the impact on consumers and investors could
be evaluated. This figure is about 10 percent higher than any of the cost estimates
presented in Chapter 6. In this chapter we will evaluate the effect of such a regulatory
cost. The impact of any of the alternative regulations from Chapter 6 will be smaller
and can be scaled from the impacts calculated here. If the U.S. Uranium Industry
created a annuity payment to cover the added cost of this regulation, the payments
required per year would be $151 million in each year for 5 years, or $93 million for each
year for 10 years. In this chapter the impact of these cost increases on investors in this
industry or purchasers of electricity are presented.
9.1 INCREASED PRODUCTION COST
The added production cost resulting from the regulation may, or may not, be passed on
to the consumers of U308 (electric utilities). If the added cost is translated into higher
prices for U 308' then the consumers of electric power will ul timately be charged higher
rates, particularly those customers of utilities with a high reliance on nuclear
generating capacity. If the U.S. uranium milling industry is unable to pass on the
disposal costs internalized by this regulation as a result of downward pressure on U 308
prices from foreign competition or other factors then the added costs will ultimately be
paid by the investors in firms in the uranium mining and milling industry.
No attempt is made here to specify the supply and demand curves for U 308. Instead
two extreme situations are considered. The first case is based on the assumption that
the uranium mills are unable to pass any of the costs of the regulation on in higher
U308 priees, and the second case is based on the assumption that the uranium mills are
able to recover all increased cost of the disposal through increased U 308 prices. This
presentation is designed to present two extreme possibilities for which the range of
217
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impacts will bracket the likely impacts. In fact, some of these costs will SlB"e1y find
their way into the rate base of utilities with nuclear generating capacity. In addition,
since some owners of these existing impoundments are no longer operating nor do they
ever intend to operate in this industry in the futlB"e, their cost for disposal must be
borne by the investors in these firms.
It is assumed in the first case that no portion of the cost of the regulation can be passed
on to the buyer of U308. Selected average financial statistics for 1980-84 from the
domestic uranium industry (see Chapter 2 for details) are . presented in Exhibit 9-1.
These data are compared to the present value cost impacts of the regulation and to the
required annuity payment to ammortize these costs over five or ten years. The 1980-84
period is one in which the industry was contracting and experiencing substantial losses
due to excess production capacity. The present value cost of the regulation would be
about four times the industry losses over this period. It is equal to about 20 percent of
the book value of industry assets and about 40 percent of industry liabilities. The ten
year annuity payment would require about a 6 percent annual increase in liabilities for
10 years to internalize the environmental control costs.
In the second case it is assumed that the lB"anium industry is able to recover the entire
increase in tailings disposal cost by charging higher U 308 prices. This increased input
cost to electric utilities will ultimately be added to the rate base and paid by electric
power consumers.
The revenue earned by the utility industry for generating 2.4 trillion kilowatthours of
electricity in 1984 was 142.31 billion dollars. The 1984 present value of the regulation
(630 million) is less than 1 percent (.4496) of the U.S. total electric power revenue for
the same year. Exhibit 9-2 is a presentation of the relationship of the regulatory cost
to power generation.
The increased cost of total generation reflects a change in the average cost per unit for
the nation. The regional impacts will vary from this mean, based in part, on the
dependence on nuclear power by region as shown in Exhibit 9-3. The ERCOT Region,
for example, with no nuclear generating capacity would probably feel no effect from
the cost of the regulation in higher electricity prices, and other regions, like MAIN and
SERC, would suffer the greatest affects. As for a specific customer or community, the
218
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EXHll3IT 9-1:
COMPARISONS OF THE PRESENT VALUE OF THE ESTIMATED
COST IMPACTS WITH SELECTED FINANCIAL STATISTICS
OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM INDUSTR Y
Domestic Uranium~/ Present Value CQSt Annual Five Year Annual Ten Year
As a Percent of Annuity Payment as A nnui ty Paym ent as
Industry, 1980-1984 Each Industry a Percent of Each a Percent of Each
Average (million $) Statistic Industry Statistic Industry Statistic
850 74 18 11
(31) 2032 487 300
532 118 28 17
195 323 77 48
469 134 32 20
275 229 55 34
2862 22 5 3
1668 38 9 6
Operating Revenues
Net Income (LQSs)
t-..:)
~ Total Sources of Funds
Capi tal Expendi tures
Total Uses of Funds
Current Assets o.ess inventory)
Total Assets
Total L iabili ti es
aDOE 85a.
Note:
Present value cost is assumed to be $630 million 1984 dollars. Five year annuity payment is $151 million per year and ten year
annuity payment is $93 million per year.
-------
EXHIBIT 9-2:
IMP ACTS ON ELECTRIC POWER COST
1984a Generation
Million Kilowatt-hours
Total
Electric Power
Industry
2,416,000
Nuclear
Electric Power
Only
327,000
Dollars of Utility Revenue Per
Million Kilowatt-hours
58,903
58,903
Dollars of Present Value of
Added Cost of Disposal Per
Million Kilowatt-hours
261
1926
Dollars of Annual Cost of
5 Year Annuity Per
Million Kilowatt-hours
63
462
Dollars of Annual Cost
of 10 Year Annuity Per
Million Kilowatt-hours
38
284
aDOE 85b.
Note:
Present value cost is assumed to be $630 million 1984 dollars. Five year
annuity payment is $151 million per year and ten year annuity payment is $93
million per year.
220
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EXHIBIT 9-3:
ELECTRICAL GENERATION BY NERC REGION 1984a
Region Total Generation Nuclear Generation Percent of
(GWH) (GWH) Total From Nuclear
ECAR 421,281 23,175 5.5
ERCOT 174,958
MAAC 166,806 34,040 20.4
MAIN 170,940 46,323 27.1
MAPP(U .S.) 107,346 17,127 16.0
NPCC(U .S.)' 189,871 44,973 23.7
SERC 491,724 12 6 , 774 25.8
SPP 218,646 10,973 5.0
WSCC(U .S.) 464,018 24,248 5.2
aDOE 85b.
KEY:
Western Systems
Coordinating Council
-------- Northeast Power
Coordinating Council
East Central Area
Reliability Coordination
Agreement
Electric Reliability
Council of Tens
Southwest
Power Pool
221
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level of impact is dependent upon the percent of generation from nuclear that their
particular electrical utility utilizes. For example, Commonwealth Edison of lllinois and
Duke Power of North Carolina have two of the highest percentage of power from
nuclear sources, so their customers would be more severely impacted than customers in
other utilities.
9.2 REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RF A) requires regulators to determine whether
proposed regulations would have a significant economic impact on a substantial number
of small businesses or other small entities. If such impacts exist, they are required to
consider specific alternative regulatory structures to minimize the small entity impacts
without compromising the objective of the statute under which the rule is enacted.
Alternatives specified for consideration by the RF A are tiering regulations,
performance rather than design standards, and small firm exemptions.
Most firms that own uranium mills are divisions or subsidiaries of major U.S. and
international corporations (See section 2.3 above). Many of these uranium mining and
milling operations are parts of larger diversified mining firms that are engaged in many
raw materials industries and uranium represents only a small portion of their
operations. Others are owned by major oil companies or by electric utilities who
engaged in vertical integration during the 1960's and 1970's. In 1977 there were 26
companies operating uranium mills and at the start of 1986 only two were operating.
The future of this industry suggests that only a limited number of these existing
facilities will ever operate again. It is also expected that the high level of financial
risk and capital requirements will continue to attract only large diversified firms and
electric utilities to this industry. Thus, no significant impact on small businesses is
expected.
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DOE 85a
DOE 85b
REFERENCES
Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry:
1984 Viability Assessment. DOE/EIS-0477, September 1985.
Department of Energy, Electric Power Annual 1984. DOE/EIA-Q348(84),
August 1985.
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*0. s. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1986; 621-735/60535
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