-------
3-67
EXHIBIT 3-41
CONTRIBUTION OF CFC END USES TO WARMING IN 2075
MINIMIZE GREENHOUSE/ENERGY IMPACT
Scenario 4
U.UJ '
XS °'025
O
M 0.02
Ji 0.015
O)
0)
Q 0.01
2 0.005
2 o
ff °
> -0.005
J^
3 -0.01
gQ -0.015
3 '°-02
o
UJ -0.025
-0.03
•—
_
_
r S
— §7 2 - *
3 ni 00
o 5 oo — — _
— ° ^,«« * » 7
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r? ii- 'm«o"~o° o —
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IT IF IT
_ ill
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O ' '
~ 1 'i
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o — « o> ^ — o :
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1111 ££»i.f
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oa>o>oo)*oic3>'5'5 * o
END USES
] Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) | | Indirect
Total
-------
3-68
to warming, contributing to approximately 50 percent of the estimated
increase.
In Scenario 3. mobile air conditioning, residential refrigeration,
retail food storage, and refrigerated transport contribute approximately 50 •
percent of the increase in global warming associated with the CFC substitutes.
Finally, in Scenario 4, which was specified such that substitutes with the
minimum greenhouse effect would be used, the greatest contributions to warming
are from the following end use areas: mobile air conditioning, process
refrigeration, retail food storage, rigid non-polyurethane foam insulation,
and rigid polyurethane foam insulation.
The CFC substitutes used in the residential refrigeration end use make
negative contributions to global warming in each scenario except Scenario 3
where HFC-134a is used to minimize total chlorine levels.
Exhibits 3-38 through 3-41 also disaggregate these total effects into
the contribution attributable to energy emissions estimated for the end use
and the contribution estimated for the CFC substitutes themselves. In six end
use areas which are not expected to realize changes in energy efficiency due
to CFC substitution, there is no contribution to warming from energy-related
greenhouse gases. These six application areas are rigid polyurethane foam
packaging, flexible foams, rigid non-polyurethane foam packaging, cold
cleaning, sterilization, and aerosols.
In eight of the other end use areas, the contributions to global warming
of the substitute compounds themselves are greater than the contributions from
energy-related greenhouse gases under each scenario. These end uses are
mobile air conditioning, chillers, process refrigeration, cold storage, retail
-------
3-69
food storage, refrigerated transport, and rigid non-polyurethane foam
insulation, and rigid non-polyurethane foam insulation.
Chapter Four examines options within energy consuming applications in
more detail in terms of their greenhouse potential and chlorine contribution.
3.4 CONCLUSIONS
This chapter examined the impact of four alternative scenarios of CFC
substitution on future chlorine levels, energy usage and costs, and greenhouse
warming. These scenarios were defined in an effort to place bounds on the
possible impacts on these environmental considerations that could result from
a phaseout of CFCs by the year 2000. The scenarios also reflect the
substantial uncertainties inherent in projecting which CFC substitutes will
actually be employed and their percentage market share on a world-wide basis.
In addition, substantial uncertainties also exist concerning the energy
efficiency of alternatives now under review. Only as more testing and
development work occurs, will more accurate information become available on
'the energy impacts of various alternatives. Finally, technological
developments to replace CFCs are occurring at a rapid rate and many of the
actual substitutes available in the year 2000 may not be considered in these
scenarios.
Despite these uncertainties, the results of the scenarios analyzed in
this chapter provide useful insights into the potential impacts on chlorine
levels and energy use from CFC substitution.
(1) Increases in chlorine levels from the market penetration of HCFCs
are less than 0.4 ppb under all scenarios except the maximum HCFC use
-------
3-70
scenario. Under both the prudent use case (Scenario 3) and maximum energy
efficiency case (Scenario 4), Clx increases are 0.02 and 0.1 ppb,
respectively, through 2075. Future chlorine increases from HCFCs would only
be significant if extensive use of the highest OOP substitutes (e.g. HCFC-
141b) occurs in such areas as foam insulation and solvent cleaning.
(2) Large potential energy efficiency gains appear possible if
alternative refrigerants including non-azeotropic materials that incorporate
HCFCs are developed. Even more substantial gains could be possible through
che added use of ammonia in more applications. Sizable energy efficiency
gains are also possible through the use of vacuum panel insulation in
refrigeration appliances. Relatively small energy losses would be experienced
through the use of HFC-134a in auto air conditioning, the use of HCFC-123 in
foam applications, and through the use of aqueous and terpene cleaners as
solvents.
(3) Changes in energy efficiency occurred for all the scenarios. The
economic gains from improved energy efficiency could substantially reduce the
overall costs associated with reducing the use of CFCs (though this analysis
did not consider the possible increased costs of using some substitutes
compared with others.) While the savings resulting from reductions in energy
use in the U.S. appeared large in absolute dollars, the estimated declines in
energy use in the U.S. are less than 1 percent of total U.S. energy use
estimated for the period under examination.
(4) The substitution scenarios varied significantly in their
contributions to global warming. Scenario 4, by substantially improving
energy efficiency and limiting the use of greenhouse gases, would actually
-------
3-71
slightly slow global warming. In contrast Scenario 2 would contribute 0.2°C
in 2075 to equilibrium warming. This represents about 4 percent of the total
projected greenhouse warming by that date. In general, the direct greenhouse
properties of the substitutes would have a substantially greater impact on
global warming than indirect or energy efficiency impacts with the exception
of refrigerator's working fluids.
-------
CHAPTER FOUR
A PARTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF OPTIONS
WITHIN SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS
As discussed in earlier chapters, the question of understanding the
environmental implications of HCFC and HFC use has a variety of aspects.
Chapter 2 examined the effect of using different aggregate levels of
various HCFCs on stratospheric chlorine. Chapter 3 then examined various
"scenarios" for future HCFC and HFC use assuming different market penetration
in key applications. The analysis showed that future chlorine, greenhouse
warming, and energy use can vary between scenarios by significant amounts.
Chapter 3 also demonstrated that for certain uses, such as aerosols, HCFCs
could contribute significantly to chlorine without concomitant advantages in
terms of energy reduction.
In this chapter certain key uses are analyzed more closely to determine
possible chlorine and greenhouse tradeoffs between different CFC substitute
options. While incomplete, this analysis does provide critical insight into
possible risks and opportunities associated with various choices of CFC
substitutes in energy intensive uses. EPA plans to follow this report with
more focused analyses on individual uses.
4.1 METHODOLOGY USED IN THIS ANALYSIS
To understand the tradeoffs between options, it is important to make a
series of assumptions about options and to calculate effects through a
sequence of models. Exhibit 4-1 summarizes the methodology used here. First,
for each application, substitute options are identified. In addition, for
-------
4-2
EXHIBIT 4-1
APPROACH USED IN THIS ANALYSIS
Assumption* on
Energy Ut• by
Sub«tituU Option
Project U«» Based
on Projected Goods
and Services Growth
Estimate Compound
Emission by Application
Estimate Chlorine
Contribution
Estimate
Concentrations of
Compound
I
Direct Radiative
Effect
Estimate
Concentration of
C02andCH4
Indirect Radiative
Effect
Aggregate Warming
-------
4-3
each use area, good use practices, such as recycling, tightened systems that
reduce emissions, etc., are assumed to be used.
To simplify the analysis, full scale implementation of every option is
assumed to occur in 1992, even though substitution would actually occur
gradually over a longer time period.1. This simplifying assumption has a
slight effect on estimates of aggregate impacts. As discussed earlier,
replacement factors are determined for each option. Combined with projected
growth in use sectors, these yield options for uses by application. With
assumptions on energy use, supply, and emission factors, it is then possible
to calculate contributions to chlorine and to global warming of each HCFC
compound, and C02 and CH4 that result from each application/substitute option.
The end result is that the greenhouse effect is computed by considering two
sources of global warming: the direct radiative effects of emissions, and the
indirect effect of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions associated
with the energy used.2
4.1.1 Limitations of the Analysis
There are several limitations to this analysis. First, some options are
not considered. Secondly, assumptions about energy use, replacement factors,
1 This simplifying assumption of full implementation of all substitutes
in 1992 is made in order to introduce consistency in.comparisons across
alternatives within applications and across applications.. This assumption
eliminates all influence of start dates, rates of penetration and market
penetration and subsequently isolates the differences in physical and chemical
characteristics between the CFG replacements.
2 The emissions factors assumed are for a typical mixture of fuels used
currently to supply energy use (details are provided in Appendix D). Clearly
the actual fuels used to provide energy could change over time, as could
energy use.
-------
4-4
lifecimes, etc. could be altered and will change as more is learned about the
use of HCFCs in specific applications. Finally, not all of the options
considered may prove feasible; more research and development is needed for
some. Despite these issues, the underlying conclusion of this chapter -- that
there are significant impacts from the different options -- is quite robust.
4.2 OPTIONS ANALYSIS FOR END USE AREAS
4.2.1 Refrigerators
Residential refrigerators constitute an important end use because of
their high energy consumption. Two areas need consideration, replacements of
CFC-12 as the refrigerant and for CFC-11 as an insulator.
Evaluation of Options for Refrigerants
HFC-134a had been conventionally viewed as the most likely refrigerant
replacement. More recently, a ternary blend has been proposed that is a near
azeotrope (HCFC-22 - 40 percent, HFC-152a - 20 percent; HCFC-124 - 40
percent). In addition, in the 1970's, Lorenz et al. developed a two-
evaporator model that achieved 20 percent gains in energy efficiency using a
NARM with a 26°C temperature glide (78"C difference in boiling points).3 A
wide variety of compounds exist that could be used as NARMs in refrigerators
(Exhibit 4-2). At least three research groups are now examining over 10
mixtures in an attempt to achieve similar gains with chemicals that are more
environmentally attractive than those Lorenz used.
3 Fourteenth International Congress of Refrigeration, proceedings
published by the International Institute for Refrigeration, Moscow 1975.
-------
EXHIBIT 4-2
R-141b(32)
5
23
37
42
44
44
52
57
57
59
73
74
80
81
84
114
R-123(27)
18
32
37
39
39
47
52
52
54
68
69
75
76
79
109
R-21 (9)
14
19
21
21
29
34
34
36
50
51
57
58
61
91
50/50 Weight Percent Compositions (°C
R-143(-5)
5
7
7
15
20
20
22
36
37
43
44
47
77
R-142b(-10)
2
2
10
15
15
17
31
32
38
39
42
72
Expected Temperature Glid
1/3 (Boiling point different
P
:e)
R-124(-12)
0
8
13
13
15
29
30
36
37
40
70
Isobutane (-12)
8
13
13
15
29
30
36
37
40
70
R-134(-20)
5
5
7
21
22
28
29
32
62
DME (-25)
0
2
16
17
23
24
27
57
R-152a (-25)
2
16
17
23
24
27
5V
R-134a(-27)
14
15
21
22
25
55
R-22(-41)
1
7
8
11
41
Propane (-42)
6
7
10
40
R-143a(-48)
1
4
40
R-125(-49)
3
33
R-32 (-52)
30
R-23|
-------
4-6
In evaluating options for refrigerants, the examination of substitution
possibilities has been reduced to four distinct cases, as shown in Exhibit
4-3. Exhibit 4-4 shows aggregate chlorine (Clx) and warming associated with
these options.'1
Analysis of Results
Because of the high energy use and relatively low emissions of
refrigerators, there is a significant greenhouse difference between Options 1
and 4 (the two options with 20 percent energy gains over CFC-12) and Options 2
and 3. The fact that between Options 1 and 4 (two options with high energy
efficiency but HCFCs of different lifetimes) there is little greenhouse
difference indicates that for options which would provide much greater energy
efficiency, a significant greenhouse advantage will exist regardless of the
lifetime of the HCFCs or HFCs used.
In terms of chlorine, the difference between the higher and lower OOP
mixtures for the high energy efficiency options is 0.01 ppb, a relatively
small difference.
Examining the difference between HFC-134a and the ternary mixture, the
gain in greenhouse warming is slightly more than 0.01°C (or approximately 0.2
percent of estimated global warming in 2075), while the use of the ternary
results in an additional contribution to chlorine concentrations of only
0.012 ppb.
* The detailed results for the evaluations presented in the chapter are
provided in Appendix F.
-------
4-7
EXHIBIT 4-3
OPTIONS FOR REPLACING CFC-12 IN RESIDENTIAL REFRIGERATORS
CFC USED
CFC-12
CFC-12
CFC-12
CFC-12
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Option 4
DESCRIPTION
NARM1
MIX2
HFC-134a
NARM3
REPLACEMENT
FACTOR
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
PERCENTAGE
IN ENERGY
-20
-3a
+3a
-20
CHANGE
USE
1 A non-azeotropic refrigerant mixture with a good temperature glide, and a
high percentage of HCFC-22 as a component; an OOP of 0.025 is assumed.
2 A near-azeotropic ternary mixture of 40 percent HCFC-22, 20 percent
HFC-152a, and 40 percent HCFC-124.
3 A non-azeotropic refrigerant mixture with a good temperature glide in
which both components have low OOP; therefore an ODP of 0.01 is assumed.
a Provided by an industry source.
-------
4-8
EXHIBIT 4-4
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL REFRIGERATION
PERCENT CHANGE IN GLOBAL WARMING2
-0.86 -0.64 -0.43 -0.21 0 0.21
0.016
Z
0
j 0.014
CD
OC
Q. 0.012
(0
QC
< 0.01
Q.
IO
Q 0.008
CM
80 0.006
X
o
— 0.004
LU
(3
Z
^ 0.002
O
o
! 1 1 1 1 1 1 < i i ;
Option 1
— •
-
—
Option ^
— •
_
—
,_
-
—
-
Option 4
—
Option 3
i i i 1 i 1 , ! A
-0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2 0 7 5 (DEGREES C)
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
for CFCs.
2 Estimates represent percentage changes In global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees C (equilibrium) which assumes temperature increases from changes
In emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
4-9
Evaluation of Options for Insulation in Refrigerators
HCFC-123 and HCFC-141b are generally viewed as the leading candidates to
replace CFC-11 in insulating foams for refrigerators. Generally, industry
would prefer that the thickness of refrigerator walls remain the same. If the
"K" or "R" values of foam (i.e., the insulating capability) are assumed to
dictate energy use, there could be a 5.0 percent energy loss for foam blown
with HCFC-123 and for foam blown with HCFC-141b without thicker walls.
Attempts are being made, however, to optimize foam blowing regimes in order to
eliminate any energy loss associated with HCFC-123 or HCFC-141b foam.5
Other options also exist for avoiding energy loss. In testimony to the
U.S. Department of Energy, General Electric (GE) demonstrated that in the U.S.
the thickening of unit side walls or tops and bottoms (but not increasing
depth) would allow retention of energy efficiency.6 GE calculated that in
such situations the changes in heights or widths would be small enough that
their current models would still be able to service 76 percent of the market
(instead of 88 percent now served) given current kitchen configurations and
cabinet openings in the U.S. Of course, increasing the depth several inches
is another alternative that could allow some brands to service existing
markets in which widening the unit or adding height is infeasible.
5 The optimization of foam manufactured using HCFC-123 and HCFC-141b and
used to insulate residential refrigerators in order to achieve a zero energy
efficiency change relative to CFC-11 blown foam appears feasible by 1993.
6 GE Appliances Response to Department of Energy Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking Regarding Refrigerators, Refrigerator-Freezers and Freezers,
January 31, 1989 (Docket No. CE-RM-87-102).
-------
4-10
A more advanced technological option for replacing CFC-11 blown foam is
vacuum insulation. Several technologies are now under development, including
fine particles, aerosols, hard vacuums, and diatomaceous earth. While
uncertainties remain about the practicality of any of these options, they
could potentially improve energy performance up to 35 percent (R values of 60-
70 and 80 per inch). Exhibit 4-5 summarizes the options that are considered
in this analysis, while Exhibit 4-6 shows the results of the trade-off
analysis.
Analysis of Results
Clearly vacuum panels are much better than any of the other insulating
alternatives, reducing greenhouse warming by 0.048°C (approximately 1.03
percent of the warming projected to occur by 2075) and Clx by as much as 0.057
ppb from the levels estimated for the other options.
There are differences in the contributions to greenhouse warming and
stratospheric chlorine levels from the use of HCFC-123 and HCFC-141b in this
foam application. Given the current thickness, HCFC-141b contributes
approximately 0.046 ppb more to Clx and 0.0028C more to warming than does
HCFC-123. By increasing the thickness of HCFC-141b foam, an incremental
increase in Clx of 0.006 ppb is estimated relative to the current thickness.
Similarly, increasing the thickness of HCFC-123 foam results in minor
increases in Clx. The effect on global warming, however, is a decrease in
warming of 0.007°C and 0.008°C, respectively, for HCFC-141b and HCFC-123.
-------
4-11
EXHIBIT 4-5
REPLACEMENTS FOR CFCS IN
RIGID POLYURETHANE FOAM
(Refrigeration)
CFC USED
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
OPTION
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
DESCRIPTION
HCFC-141b - same thickness
HCFC-22
HCFC-141b Optimized
HCFC-22
HCFC-141b - increased thickness
HCFC-22
HCFC-123 - same thickness
HCFC-22
HCFC-123 Optimized
HCFC-22
HCFC-123 - increased thickness
HCFC-22
Vacuum Panels
Vacuum Panels
REPLACEMENT
FACTOR
0.85
1.00
0.85
1.00
0.94
1.00
1.15
1.00
1.15
1.00
1.21
1.00
N/A
N/A
PERCENTAGE
CHANGE IN
ENERGY USE
+ 5.0
0.0
0.0"
0.0
0.0
0.0
+5.0
0.0
0.0"
0.0
0.0
0.0
-25.0
0.0
a Assumes that the foam has been optimized (e.g., by improving cell density,
cell thickness, etc.) to provide same energy efficiency. See "Energy-Use
Impact of Chlorofluorocarbon Alternatives," Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
February 1989.
-------
4-12
EXHIBIT 4-6
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
RIGID POLYURETHANE FOAM (REFRIGERATION)
PERCENT CHANGE IN GLOBAL WARMING2
0.07
2 0.06
OC
IU 0.05
Q.
(O
H-
CC
< 0.04
O
(\J 0.03
(0
2<
O 0.02
-0.86
LU
0
O
0.01
-0.64
-0.43
-0.21
021
Option 7
Option 6
Option 3
•
Option 2 Option 1
°Ptlon 4
! Option 5
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2075 (DEGREES C)
0.43
0.02
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
forCFCs.
2 Estimates represent percentage changes In global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees C (equilibrium) which assumes temperature Increases from changes
in emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
4.2.2 Mobile Air Conditioning
Mobile air conditioners use a large quantity of CFC-12 because of the
sizable number of units and their very high leakage rate. A typical
automobile air conditioner will currently emit 3.7 kgs of CFC-12 over 15
years, compared to 0.35 kgs from a refrigerator.7
HCFC-22 is an option that few automobile companies are now considering
due to its high pressure requirements, its possibly lower energy efficiency
and the need for total unit redesign.
HFC-134a is the leading candidate for replacing CFC-12, although
lubrication and desiccants have to be changed in order for the compound to be
used in current units. HFC-134a is assumed in this analysis to result in a 3
percent increase in energy consumption.
The ternary blend (40 percent - HCFC-22, 20 percent - HFC-152a, 40
percent HFC-124) would have a higher leakage rate (7 percent), with a better
energy efficiency (2 percent gain) than CFC-12.8 The possibility of using a
blend that has a low ODP and better energy use (5 percent) is also considered.
Several such possibilities exist, including HFC-152a blended with HFC-134a and
HCFC-22.
7 The estimates are based on assumptions concerning the initial charge of
these applications as well as the quantity of CFCs used to service each. This
approach accounts for automobile air conditioning emissions that are greater
than the initial charge. The releases from refrigerators include those from
insulating foam as well as those from the refrigerant.
8 The assumed leakage rate accounts for losses due to hose permeation.
See "Evaluation of Fluorocarbon Blends as Automotive Air Conditioning
Refrigerants," SAE Technical paper, February 1989.
-------
4-14
Exhibit 4-7 summarizes the options considered here. The differences
between the options are shown in Exhibit 4-8.
Analysis of Results
Because of the high emissions of car air conditioners, the greenhouse
potential of HFC-134a is relatively high, totalling 0.016°C. The greenhouse
effect of HCFC-22 would be worse, however, (0.019°C) because it would result
in higher emissions. The ternary mixture would produce a greenhouse effect of
0.01°C (0.006°C less than HFC-134a) due to the lower radiative properties of
the blend. An option with even a shorter lifetime and lower OOP, however,
would save a more significant fraction of greenhouse warming 0.008°C (0.2
percent of total estimated warming in 2075). As long as the blend as a whole
contains a low ODP (0.01, for example) total chlorine contribution could be
kept low.
An important conclusion of this analysis is that, in automobile air
conditioning, the use of any compound with more than a one or two year
lifetime could contribute significantly to global warming if current emissions
levels are not reduced (e.g., if tighter hoses and recycling are not
introduced). It is worth noting that the use of HFC-134a would result in a
net positive contribution to global warming (compared to no emissions), an
amount of warming that a 4 percent improvement in global fuel efficiency would
eliminate.9
9 Estimates based on potential reduction achievable through improvements
in transportation fuel efficiency. See U.S. EPA, Policy Options for
Stabilizing Global Climate. Draft Report to Congress, February 1989.
-------
4-15
EXHIBIT 4-7
REPLACEMENTS FOR CFC-12 IN MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING
REPLACEMENT PERCENTAGE CHANGE
CFC USED OPTION DESCRIPTION FACTOR IN ENERGY USE
CFC-12 1 HCFC-22 1.0 +8.9°
CFC-12 2 MIX1 1.07 -2.0
CFC-12 3 HCFC-134a 0.9 +3.Ob
CFC-12 4 NARM2 1.0 -5.0
1 A near azeotropic ternary mixture of 40 percent HCFC-22, 20 percent HFC-
152a, and 40 percent HCFC-124.
2 A non-azeotropic refrigerant mixture with a good temperature glide in
which both components have low OOP; therefore an OOP of 0.01 is assumed.
a Obtained from Energy-Use Impacts of Chlorofluorocarbon Alternatives. Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, February 1989.
b Provided by an industry source.
-------
4-16
EXHIBIT 4-8
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
MOBILE AIR CONDITIONERS
ui
O
Z
<
X
o
0.13
0.07
0.06
CD
CC
UJ 0.05
O.
V)
h-
cc
2 °-°4
^
IO
l-«
o
CM 0.03
>-
CD
O 0.02
0.01
PERCENT CHANGE IN GLOBAL WARMING'
0.17
0.21
0.26
0.30
0.34
0.39
0.43
Option 1
Option 2
Option 4
Option 3
0.006 0.006 0.01 6.012 0.014 0.016 0.018
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2075 (DEGREES C)
0.02
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
for CFCs.
2 Estimates represent percentage changes In global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees c (equilibrium) which assumes temperature Increases from changes
In emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
4-17
. A.2.3 Chillers
Chillers use large quantities of CFC-11. smaller quantities of CFC-12,
and even less of CFC-114. The largest single market is that of centrifugal.
CFC-11 chillers. The leading candidate for replacing CFC-11 is HCFC-123.
Energy performance of this option appears similar to that of the original
refrigerant with perhaps a 1 percent loss in efficiency, although changes in
design will have to be made to achieve capacity equal to that of CFC-11
machines.
The leading candidate for replacing CFC-12 is HFC-134a. Initial tests
suggest that this option will result in higher energy use (an increase of
approximately 3 percent is applied in our scenario), but additional tests may
show that no losses are incurred when the system is optimized.10
For CFC-114, HCFC-124 is the leading candidate as a replacement option.11
In this analysis, the use of HCFC-124 is assumed to result in a 3 percent
reduction in energy use.
Other options also exist for all three of the compounds currently used.
For example, ammonia may be a reliable replacement for current chemicals in
individual building units or in district cooling centers. Non-azeotropic
mixtures might also become viable substitutes.12 Consequently, the analysis
assumes a combination incorporating ammonia and a NARM as one of the options.
10
Personal communication with Howard Sibley, Carrier, Inc.
11 Due to concern expressed by some reviewers of an earlier draft of this
report, EPA is continuing to review and evaluate this assumption.
12 Personal communication with Didion, NITS.
-------
4-18
This combination is included as a surrogate for a whole set of similar options
with the potential for an increase in energy efficiency of 10 to 15 percent.
Another option considered is a total switch to HCFC-22 chillers. This
would be accomplished by replacing single HCFC-11 chillers with multiple HCFC-
22 chillers. A 4 percent increase in energy efficiency is assumed for this
option. Finally, the possibility of replacing CFC-12 and CFC-114 with a
ternary blend that increases energy efficiency by 3 percent is considered.
Exhibit 4-9 shows these options. Exhibit 4-10 shows the differences in the
warming effects and chlorine concentrations estimated for each of these
options.
Analysis of Results
The results show a significant difference between the HCFC-22 option and
all others in terms of both chlorine (0.139 ppb) and warming (0.046°C). This
large difference results from the long lifetime, increased emissions, and
higher energy use of HCFC-22 chillers. In fact, even if the energy
inefficiencies of HCFC-22 were eliminated through design changes, wholesale
replacement by HCFC-22 chillers would result in increases of 0.042°C
(approximately 0.9 percent) in estimated warming in 2075. Even with these
design changes warming from use of HCFC-22 would be more than twice that
estimated for HCFC-123 use.
Between the other options listed, there are still considerable
differences in performance. Ammonia clearly reduces both greenhouse and
chlorine effects because its emissions do not contribute to either and because
of its improvements in energy efficiency. The difference between Option 1
-------
4-19
EXHIBIT 4-9
CHILLER OPTIONS
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
USED OPTION
-11 1
-12
-114
-11 2
-12
-114
-11 3
-12
-114
-11 4
-12
-114
DESCRIPTION
25% Ammonia/75% NARM1
25% Ammonia/75% NARM1
25% Ammonia/75% NARM1
HCFC-22
HCFC-22
HCFC-22
HCFC
HFC-
HCFC
HCFC
MIX2
MIX2
-123
134a
-124
-123
REPLACEMENT
FACTOR
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
PERCENTAGE
IN ENERGY
-10
-10
-10
+4.
+4.
+4.
+1.
+3.
+3.
+1.
-3.
-3.
.0/-15
.0/-15
.0/-15
Oa
Oa
Oa
Oa
Oa
Oa
Oa
Oa
Oa
CHANGE
USE
.Oa
.Oa
.Oa
1 A non-azeotropic refrigerant mixture with a good temperature glide in which
both components have low OOP; therefore an OOP of 0.01 is assumed.
2 A near-azeotropic ternary mixture of 40 percent. HCFC-22, 20 percent
HFC-152a, and 40 percent HCFC-124.
a Provided by an industry source.
-------
4-20
EXHIBIT 4-10
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
CHILLERS
PERCENT CHANGE IN GLOBAL WARMING'
0 0.21 0.43 0.64 0.86 1.0
^-s °-14
Z
o
1
^^
— 0.12
to
CC
LU
Q.
w 0.1
1-
cc
Q.
^ 0.08
U)
f-
O
CM
^ 0.06
m
_ 0.04
111
0
< 0.02
Z
o
n
i ' ! ' i ' i
Option 2
0
^^F
-
_ _
—
-
—
—
_ Option 4
—
Option 3
0 Option 1 .
I , I r I . I
0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2075 (DEGREES C)
0.05
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
forCFCs.
2 Estimates represent percentage changes In global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees C (equilibrium) which assumes temperature Increases from changes
In emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
(ammonia and low OOP NARMs) and Opcion 4 (HFC-123 and ternary) also
illustrates that high emissions from chillers (at least as currently
operating) make the average OOP an important factor in terms of the chlorine
contribution.
4.2.4 Retail Food Storage
Retail food refrigerators use CFC-12 and CFC-115 which is a component of
HCFC-502. HCFC-22 can be a replacement for both of these compounds. An
option which combines use of ammonia in some situations and a NARM in others
is also considered. The analysis assumes a 10 to 15 percent energy efficiency
gain for this combination. Finally, HFC-125 is under evaluation as a
replacement for CFC-115. Exhibit 4-11 summarizes the options considered here.
Analysis of Results
Exhibit 4-12 summarizes the results of the options in terms of chlorine
and greenhouse warming. In this case, the use of HCFC-22 results in the
highest Clx contributions estimated for the use area, 0.059 ppb. This option
contributes as much as 0.054 ppb more to chlorine levels than the other two
options considered. Option 3 results in the highest contribution to warming
(0.019°C); this is 0.001°C higher than Option 2 and 0.014°C higher than Option
1.
There are also differences in performance between the other options
themselves. The ammonia used in Option 1 reduces greenhouse and chlorine
effects below those estimated under Option 3, because ammonia emissions do not
contribute to either effect and because of the relative energy efficiency
estimated for the mixture.
-------
4-22
EXHIBIT 4-11
RETAIL FOOD STORAGE OPTIONS
REPLACEMENT
CFC
CFC-
CFC-
CFC-
CFC-
CFC-
USED OPTION
12 1
115
12 2
115
12 3
CFC-115
35%
35%
HCFC
HCFC
MIX2
HFC-
DESCRIPTION
Ammonia/65% HARM1
Ammonia/65% NARM1
-22
-22
125
FACTOR
1
1
1
1
1
1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
PERCENTAGE CHANGE
IN ENERGY USE
-10.0/-15.0a
-10.0/-15.03
-3.1b
-3.1b
-3.0
+0.0a
1 A non-azeotropic refrigerant mixture with a good temperature glide in which
both components have low ODP; therefore an OOP of 0.01 is assumed.
2 A near-azeotiropic ternary mixture of 40 percent HCFC-22, 20 percent
HFC-152a, and 40 percent HCFC-124.
a Provided by an industry source.
b Obtained from Energy-Use Impacts of Chlorofluorocarbon Alternatives. Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, February 1989.
-------
cn
cc
LU
Q.
Ul
o
z
<
X.
o
J.06
0.05
0.04
cc
Q.
xx
10 0.03
O
CM
CO
x °-02
o
0.01
4-23
EXHIBIT 4-12
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
RETAIL FOOD STORAGE
PERCENT CHANGE IN GLOBAL WARMING2
0.11 0.21 0.32 0.43 0.54
0.64
Option 2
Option 3
Option 1
I
0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2075 (DEGREES C)
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
for CFCs.
2 Estimates represent percentage changes in global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees C (equilibrium) which assumes temperature Increases from changes
In emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
4-24
4.2.5 Process Refrigeration
CFC-12 and CFC-115, which is a component of HCFC-502, are also used in
process refrigeration applications. HCFC-22 can be a replacement for both of
these compounds; when applied in this analysis, it is assumed to increase
energy consumption by 4 percent. An option which combines the use of ammonia
and HCFC-22 also is being considered as a replacement f both compounds. The
energy impacts of this combined option are assumed to be a 10 percent decrease
in energy use associated with the ammonia and a 4 percent increase in energy
use associated with using HCFC-22. Finally, a HARM and HFC-125 are under
evaluation as replacements. Exhibit 4-13 summarizes the options considered
here.
Analysis of Results
The results of the analysis in Exhibit 4-14 again highlight the
relatively high contribution of HCFC-22 to warming (0.013°C) and chlorine
concentrations (0.044 ppb). In addition, the results for the other options
considered are consistent with the effects estimated in the analyses of the
retail food storage and chillers end uses. That is, Option 1, which is
comprised of 80 percent ammonia, reduces the chlorine and warming contribution
by 0.014 ppb and 0.0048C compared to Option 3, which applies the ternary
mixture and HFC-125.
4.2.6 Rigid Polyurethane Foam Insulation
CFC-11 has been the primary compound used in insulation, although CFC-12
is also used as a frothing agent. HCFC-123 and HCFC-141b both have been
proposed as replacements for CFC-11 in this application. Because the "K"
-------
4-25
EXHIBIT 4-13
PROCESS REFRIGERATION OPTIONS
REPLACEMENT
CFC USED OPTION
CFC-12 1
CFC-115
CFC-12 2
CFC-115
CFC-12 3
CFC-115
DESCRIPTION
80% Ammonia/20% HCFC-22
80% Ammonia/20% HCFC-22
HCFC-22
HCFC-22
MIX1
HFC-125
FACTOR
1.
1.
1.
1.
1
1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
PERCENTAGE CHANGE
IN ENERGY USE
-10.0/+4.0a
-10.0/+4.0a
+4.0a
+4.0a
-3.0fc
0.0
1 A near-azeotropic ternary mixture of 40 percent HCFC-22, 20 percent
HFC-152a, and 40 percent HCFC-124.
a In absence of application-specific data assume energy-efficiency is
equivalent to chillers.
b Provided by an industry source.
-------
0.05
0.045
— 0.04
CD
CC
to
I-
If)
h-
o
CM
CD
X
UJ
o
0.012
0-03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
I 0.005 —
4-26
EXHIBIT 4-14
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
PROCESS REFRIGERATION
PERCENT CHANGE IN GLOBAL WARMING^
0.04
0.09
0.13
0.17
0.21
0.26
0.30
Option 2
Option 3
Option 1
I
0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.01 0.012 0.014
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2075 (DEGREES C)
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
for CFCs.
2 Estimates represent percentage changes In global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees C (equilibrium) which assumes temperature Increases from changes
In emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
4-27
values (conductivity) of HCFC-141b and HCFC-123 are 10 percent higher than
that for foam blown with CFC-11, unless they are improved by modifying the
cell structure in foam or adding shards that reduce radiative losses, the
energy loss associated with their use could reach 10 percent. Optimization of
foam formulations could, if successful, eliminate any energy loss.
Furthermore, the addition of materials to eliminate radiative losses could
even produce a 1 percent gain in energy efficiency. Finally, in many uses the
thickness of HCFC-123 or HCFC-141b foam could be increased to compensate for
higher "K" values. Exhibit 4-15 shows these options.
Analysis of Results
Exhibit 4-16 shows the changes in global warming and chlorine
concentrations estimated for each option. Clearly the most significant
difference between options is with HCFC-123 and HCFC-141b, with the latter
contributing approximately 0.2 ppb more to Clx. This difference is
approximately half of the reduction in stratospheric chlorine contribution
achieved by moving from a methyl chloroform freeze to a phaseout. Increasing
the thickness of the insulation increases chlorine by 0.001 ppb for HCFC-123
and 0.02 ppb for HCFC-141br but reduces the warming effect by approximately
0.007"C (roughly 0.15 percent of total estimated warming by 2075) in both
cases. Clearly the energy savings resulting from increasing insulation
thickness significantly offsets the direct greenhouse effects of additional
emissions in both cases.
Additional reductions in warming, beyond those estimated for thicker
insulation stock, are estimated for the use of HCFC-123 with shards. The
-------
EXHIBIT 4-15
RIGID POLYURETHANE FOAM OPTIONS
(Insulation)
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
CFC
USED
-11
-12
-11
-12
-11
-12
-11
-12
-11
-12
-11
-12
-11
-12
OPTION DESCRIPTION
1 HCFC-123 - same thickness
HCFC-22
2 HCFC-123 - Optimized
HCFC-22
3 HFC-123 - increased thickness
HCFC-22
4 HCFC-141b - same thickness
HCFC-22
5 HCFC-141b Optimized
HCFC-22
6 HCFC-141b - increased thickness
HCFC-22
7 Shards (HCFC-123) with Optimized
Foam Cells
Shards (HCFC-123) with Optimized
Foam Cells
REPLACEMENT
FACTOR
1
1
1
1
1
1
C
-
0
1
0
1
1
1
.15
.0
.15
.0
.21
.0
.85
.0
.85
.0
.94
.0
.0
:o
PERCENTAGE
CHANGE IN
ENERGY USE
+10
0
0
0
0
0
+10
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
.oa
.oa
.ob
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0"
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
a Obtained from an industry source.
b Assumes that the foam has been optimized (e.g., by improving cell density,
cell thickness, etc.) to provide same energy efficiency.
-------
4-29
EXHIBIT 4-16
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
RIGID POLYURETHANE FOAM (INSULATION)
PERCENT CHANGE IN GLOBAL WARMING2
0 0.11 0.21 0.32 0.43 0.54 0.64 0.75 0.86 0.96 1.07
0.35
CD
CC
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Q.
W
H
cc
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Q.
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CO
2<
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z
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z
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0.15
0.1
0.05
' I
Option 7
Option 6
Option 5
Option 4
Option 3 Option 1
Option 2
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2075 (DEGREES C)
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
for CFCs.
2 Estimates represent percentage changes In global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees C (equilibrium) which assumes temperature Increases from changes
In emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
4-30
gains in energy efficiency .and relatively low direct effect of HCFC-123 used
in conjunction with shards results in an estimated :total warming contribution
of 0.005°C. This warming contribution is accompanied by a Clx contribution of
approximately 0.03 ppb.
4.3 SUMMARY ANALYSIS OF END USE AREAS CONSIDERED
A closer look at the different applications has revealed that there are
substantial differences in the contributions of different options to chlorine
and the greenhouse effect. Exhibit 4-17 shows the relative contributions of
each option to chlorine concentrations and Exhibit 4-18 to global warming.
Clearly the compounds that could most significantly contribute to
additional chlorine are HCFC-141b and HCFC-22. Those that could have the
least effect on chlorine include HFC-134a and ammonia, neither of which
contribute to chlorine levels.
Similarly HCFC-141b and HCFC-22 could do the most to increase the global
warming effect, while the use of ammonia, vacuum panels and certain NARMs
could do the most to decrease it.
Exhibit 4-19 plots the chlorine and warming values for all the options
considered in this trade-off analysis. By moving from one option to another,
the relative tradeoffs within each application area can be compared. In
general, there are only a few cases in which an increase in chlorine is the
trade-off required for a reduction in greenhouse effect or energy use. In
those cases, (e.g., refrigerators) the greenhouse and energy use improvements
are relatively large in contrast to the requisite chlorine increase. The
-------
4-31
EXHIBIT 4-17
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
Clx INCREASE
0.5
END-USE OPTION
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC substitution
for CFCs
-------
4-32
EXHIBIT 4-18
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
GLOBAL WARMING
CD
CC
UJ
0.
W
I-
CC
<
Q.
o
CM
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
CD
o
Z
I •
-J -0.01
^
CO
o
-I
O -0.02
UJ
o
2 -0.03
•0.04
— 1.07
SEE SEE
<8 (0 <0 >.>»
000
333
_.
"5 o o o o
a. a. a. a. a. a.
222222
o> o> o> o> o> o>
E E £ tr a: a:
-0.43
-0.64
-0.86
ts>
END-USE OPTION
2 Estimates represent percentage changes in global warming from a baseline of
4.674 degrees C (equilibrium) which assumes temperature increases from changes
in emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen oxides, a phase-out of
fully halogenated CFCs and no substitutes that contribute to global warming
-------
4-33
EXHIBIT 4-19
TRADEOFF ANALYSIS
ALL END USES
™
z
o
-j 0.3
CD
CC
UJ
-••II
Q. 0.25
tn
H-
f&*
CC
Q. 0.2
f».
O
CM 0.15
CD
X
__
UJ
2; 0.05
<
O
f\
~
^ Residential Refrigeration
O Mobile Air Conditioners
Q Rigid Polyurethane Foam (Refrigeration)
| Retail Food Storage
^ Chillers
® Process Refrigeration
LJ Rigid Polyurethane Foam (Insulation)
I
-
-
_
-
-
" . *'
i i i i
i
r -
L.
i
_ _
L_
i
r~ ~ •
^
)
~ —
r
^ j
rH rn _P^
r"i3^ 1L^5»"
._
L — i>«
,
r ~ ~ "
71-71 ^) "
^^il 1 s~* '. 3>(3B
• ri* , , i , , , , I , ,,,!,, .TCFWTT ir^ , .. , ,
!
q
5LT
i 'n
J wJ. J
-rj
i
!m
,,.,!,,,,
-0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
GLOBAL WARMING IN 2075 (DEGREES C)
1 Estimates represent changes from a baseline that assumes no HCFC
substitution for CFCs.
-------
4-34
results also indicate than reductions in emissions similar to those in
Scenario 3 of Chapter 3 could decrease greenhouse effects by comparatively
great amounts.
-------
APPENDIX A
METHODS FOR ESTIMATING DEMAND, EMISSIONS, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ASSUMING NO CONTROLS ON CFC USE AND
A PHASEOUT OF CFC USE
-------
A-2
APPENDIX A
METHODS FOR ESTIMATING DEMAND, EMISSIONS. AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
ASSUMING NO CONTROLS ON CFC USE AND A PHASEOUT OF CFC USE
This appendix presents the methods used to estimate the potential future
demand for and emissions of HCFC and HFC substitutes for fully-halogenated
CFCs that are phased out as a result of concerns regarding the impacts that
CFCs have on stratospheric ozone and global climate change. The major
assumptions applied in estimating total CFC demand and emissions assuming
there are no controls on CFC use and assuming a phaseout in CFC use by the
year 2000 that does not use HCFC substitutes are presented here. These
estimates are used in Chapters 2, 3, and 4 of this report to develop and
evaluate various substitution and tradeoff scenarios.
1.1 THE APPROACH USED TO ESTIMATE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR AND EMISSIONS OF HCFCs
This section explains the methods used to estimate the total demand for
and emissions of HCFCs. Additional assumptions applied in developing
estimates of chlorine concentrations, global warming, and energy impacts also
are presented.
1.1.1 Methods for Estimating Global Demand for HCFCs
The first step in estimating global demand for HCFCs under the
parametric analysis of chlorine in Chapter 2 of this report, the substitution
scenarios analysis in Chapter 3, and the trade-off analysis in Chapter 4 is to
estimate the total potential market for all CFC substitutes (e.g., HCFCs,
other compounds) over the period from 1985 to 2165. The estimation approach
is depicted graphically in Exhibit A-l. This future market is bounded by:
• The size of the CFC market that would have existed in the absence
of any controls on production or consumption; and
• The size of the CFC market assuming a phaseout of CFCs.
The maximum market for CFC substitutes is represented by the level of
CFC demand estimated assuming that CFC use is allowed to grow without any
controls placed on production or consumption of the compounds, including the
controls specified by the Montreal Protocol. This level of demand is
represented by the No Controls line on Exhibit A-l. The lower boundary of
demand for HCFCs is estimated assuming a phaseout of CFC use that does not
employ HCFC substitutes. This phaseout is defined to follow the Montreal
Protocol through 1998, with a complete phaseout by the year 2000. Demand
under the phaseout is represented by the Phaseout line in Exhibit A-l.
The difference between the market for CFCs assuming no controls on use
and assuming a phaseout represent an estimate of the total possible market for
all CFC substitutes under a phaseout. The methods followed to estimate
-------
A-3
Exhibit A-1
SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF POTENTIAL MARKET
FOR CFC SUBSTITUTES
o
o
o
«*»
o
CO
3
O
No Controls • CFC Demand
1) Demand met by
alternative products
or processes
2) Demand met by
recycling, reduced
charge, housekeeping
3) Demand met by
hydrofluorocarbons
4) Demand met by
HCFCs
Phase-out - CFC Demand
Time
-------
A-4
total global demand for and emissions of CFCs assuming no controls on CFC use
and assuming a CFC phaseout under which HCFCs are not applied are presented
below.
1.1.2 Estimating Global Demand Assuming No Controls on Future CFC Use
The methods used to develop demand and emissions estimates assuming
there are no controls on CFC use are based on previous EPA work presented in
the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) supporting the August 12, 1988 final rule
on stratospheric ozone protection.1 This scenario identifies the anticipated
future global use and emissions of CFCs 11, 12, 113, 114, and 115 in the
absence of any regulatory intervention. Due to the Montreal Protocol and its
assumed extension to a complete phaseout, use of these compounds will, in
fact, not be permitted to grow as anticipated under these no controls
estimates. However, the estimates developed assuming no controls reflect the
underlying demand for refrigeration applications, foam products, etc., which
now use CFCs.
Estimates of the demand for CFCs were divided among the following four
regions:
• United States (U.S.);
• Western Industrialized Countries;
• Centrally-Planned Economies; and
• Developing Countries (Rest of the World/ROW).
These four regions are an aggregation of the eight regions used in the
analysis presented in the RIA as follows:
• U.S. estimates are a function of U.S. data only;
• Western industrial country estimates are derived from
data on the following regional categories: members of
the European Economic Community, Canada, Japan,
Australia, New Zealand, and other developed nations;
• Centrally planned economy estimates are derived from
data on the USSR and Eastern Europe; and
• Rest of the world estimates are derived from data on
the following nations: China, India, and other lesser
developed countries, and nations which produce less
than 0.2 kilograms of CFCs per capita.
Within these regions, CFC demand is further distributed among 20 end-use
areas. These end-use areas were selected to differentiate the types of HCFCs
and HFCs that may be substituted for CFCs under a phaseout and, therefore, the
environmental and energy impacts associated with substitutes in each of these
end-use areas. These end-use areas are listed in Exhibit A-2.
1 U.S. EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis: Protection of Stratospheric
)zone. August 1, 1988.
-------
A-5
EXHIBIT A-2
TWENTY END-USE CATEGORIES
End-Use Categories CFCs Used Currently
1. Mobile Air Conditioners CFC-12
2. Residential Refrigeration* CFC-12
3. Chillers CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-114
4. Process Refrigeration CFC-12, CFC-115b
5. Cold Storage Warehouses CFC-12, CFC-115
6. Retail Food Storage CFC-12, CFC-115
7. Other Refrigeration0 CFC-12, CFC-115
8. Refrigerated Transport0 CFC-12, CFC-115
9. Rigid Polyurethane Foam CFC-11, CFC-12
(residential refrigeration)
10. Rigid Polyurethane Foam CFC-11
(other refrigeration)
11. Rigid Polyurethane Foam CFC-11
(refrigerated transport)
12 . Rigid Polyurethane Foam CFC-11, CFC-12
(structure insulation)
13. Rigid Polyurethane Foam (packaging) CFC-11, CFC-12
14. Flexible Foam CFC-11
15. Rigid Non-Polyurethane Foam CFC-12
(structure insulation)
16. Rigid Non-Polyurethane Foam (packaging) CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-114
17. Aerosols CFC-11, CFC-12
18. Solvent Cleaning (cold cleaning) CFC-113
19. Solvent Cleaning (vapor degreasing) CFC-113
20. Sterilization CFC-12
a Includes CFC-12 used as a working fluid in domestic refrigerators and
freezers only. CFC use associated with insulation of refrigerators and
freezers is categorized under Rigid Polyurethane Foam (refrigeration).
b References to CFC-115 are as a component of HCFC-502.
c Use of CFC-12 and CFC-115 in other refrigeration and refrigerated
transport applications represent the use of these compounds as a working
fluid. CFC use associated with insulation is categorized under Rigid
Polyurethane Foam (other refrigeration) and (refrigerated transport).
-------
A-6
Estimates of CFC demand and emissions assuming there are no controls on
CFC use were divided among the 20 end uses using the following steps:
(1) Global CFC demand in 1985 was allocated to the CFC end uses based
on estimates of the distribution of CFC use across the four
regions and the 20 end-use areas;
(2) Growth rates were applied to the end-use demand estimates for 1985
to estimate CFC demand over time; and
(3) Release tables were applied for each end use area to estimate
emissions from each over time.
*•»
1.1.3 CFC "onsumption Patterns in 1985
Exhibit A-3 presents estimates of total CFC consumption in 1985.
Exhibits A-4 through A-7 show estimated CFC consumption patterns for 1985 in
the four geographic regions. The following sections explain the methods used
to develop the consumption pattern estimates and compare the estimates to
those in the RIA.
CFC Consumption in the U.S.
Exhibit A-4 presents estimates of the distribution of CFC consumption by
end use in the United States in 1985. These estimates are based on previous
EPA analysis documented in the August 1988 RIA and the draft 1989 EPA document
entitled, "Documentation of Engineering and Cost Data Used in the Vintaging
Analysis."
CFC Consumption in Western Industrialized Countries
Estimates of the distribution of CFC consumption in western
industrialized countries in 1985 are shown in Exhibit A-5. These estimates
are based on data in the RIA, but consumption is disaggregated into 20 end-use
categories based on recent information supplied by industry sources and
through analogies with U.S. consumption patterns. Specifically, estimates of
CFC-11 and CFC-12 consumption in the rigid foam insulation applications
(bothpolyurethane and non-polyurethane), and CFC-12 consumption for
residential refrigeration and sterilization end uses have been increased from
values in the RIA based on information supplied by an industry source.
Estimates of CFC consumption in MACs are derived from market saturation
and CFC use data. There is a large variation in MAC market saturation
estimates among western industrialized countries. For example, 90 percent of
the cars in Japan are equipped with air conditioning, compared with only two
percent in West Germany. On average, it is estimated that 20 percent of the
cars in this region are equipped with air conditioning.
-------
A-7
EXHIBIT A-3
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCES IN 1985
(millions of Kg)
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-113
CFC-114
CFC-115
U.S
79
136
68
4
4
WIC
.5
.9
.5
.0
.5
173
153
85
5
2
.0
.7
.3
.1
.2
CPE
42
88
10
2
0
.4
.7
.6
.0
.8
ROW
73
75
12
2
1
.2
.4
.6
.4
.0
Source: ICF analysis.
-------
A-!
EXHIBIT A-4
ESTIMATED USE OF CFC COMPOUNDS IN THE U.S. IN 1985
(percent)
End-Use Categories
Refrigeration :
Mobile Air Conditioners
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Retail Food Storage
Refrigerated Transport
Other Refrigeration
Total Refrigeration
Blowing Agent for Foam:
Rigid PU Foam
(residential refrigeration)
Rigid PU Foam
(refrigerated transport)
Rigid PU Foam
(other refrigerarion)
Rigid PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Rigid PU Foam (packaging)
Flexible Foam
Rigid Non-PU Foam (packaging)
Rigid Non-PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Total Foam
Aerosol:
Aerosols
Total Aerosol
Miscellaneous:
Solvent Cleaning-Cold Cleaning
Solvent Cleaning-Vapor Cleaning
Sterilization
Total Miscellaneous
GRAND TOTAL
CFC-11
0.0
0.0
10.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
10.1
8.5
4.5
9.6
39.9
2.9
18.4
1.2
0.0
85.0
4.7
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
CFC-12 CFC-113 CFC-114
32.3 ' ?
2.0
1.6 13.0
15.7
4.0
6.4
2.1
. 2.4 .
66.5 13.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
0.08
0.0
6.6 87.0
2.5
11.68 87.0
5.6
5.6
0.0 10.0
0.0 90.0
16.1 0.0
16.1 100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0
CFC- 115
4.5
36.5
57.5
0.9
0.4
100.0
,
100.0
Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: ICF analysis.
-------
A-9
EXHIBIT A-5
ESTIMATED USE OF CFC COMPOUNDS IN
WESTERN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
(percent)
End-Use Categories
Refrigeration:
Mobile Air Conditioners
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Retail Food Storage
Refrigerated Transport
Other Refrigeration
Total Refrigeration
Blowing Agent for Foam:
Rigid PU Foam
(residential refrigeration)
Rigid PU Foam
(refrigerated transport)
Rigid PU Foam
(other refrigeration)
Rigid PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Rigid PU Foam (packaging)
Flexible Foam
Rigid Non-PU Foam (packaging)
Rigid Non-PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Total Foam
Aerosol:
Aerosols
Total Aerosol
Miscellaneous:
Solvent Cleaning-Cold Cleaning
Solvent Cleaning-Vapor Cleaning
Sterilization
Total Miscellaneous
GRAND TOTAL
CFC-11
0.0
0.0
6.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.1
9.5
1.0
0.3
20.0
2.7
17.5
1.7
0.0
53.2
40.7
40.7
0.0
0.0
o.o
0.0
100.0
CFC-12 CFC-113
10.2
2.6
3.2
7.5
2.4
3.5
4.2
0 .4
34.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
1.0
0.0
8.1
2.6
14.3
50.8
50.8
0.0 10.0
0.0 90.0
1.0 0.0
1.0 100.0
100.0 100.0
CFC-114 CFC-115
13.0
4.5
36.5
57.5
0.9
0 5
13.0 100.0
87.0
87.0
100.0 100.0
Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: ICF analysis.
-------
A-10
CFC Consumption in Centrally Planned Economies
Exhibit A-6 presents estimates of the distribution of CFC consumption by
end use in 1985 in centrally planned economies. These estimates are derived
from the estimate of CFC consumption in the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc
nations-presented in the RIA, in which total CFC consumption in this region
was estimated to be seven percent of the total world consumption. For
purposes of this analysis, this estimate was subdivided into the 20 end-use
categories using assumptions about the effect that the relatively cooler
climatic conditions in this region will have on demand for some products such
as mobile air conditioners (expected to be lower than in the U.S.) and
insulation applications (expected to be higher than in the U.S.).
CFC Consumption in the Rest of the World Region (ROW)
Exhibit A-7 presents estimates of the distribution of CFC consumption by
end use in ROW nations. ROW nations include all developing countries. Data
on CFC consumption in these countries are sparse. The Chemical Manufacturers
Association (CMA), however, reports data on total CFC production serving all
markets other than centrally planned economies (CMA 1986). These data are
used in this analysis to derive an estimate of ROW consumption. Estimated ROW
consumption of CFCs is calculated as the difference between total production
data from CMA and the sum of estimated consumption of CFCs in the U.S. and
western industrialized countries.
The production data from CMA are provided in five aggregate end-use
categories. To disaggregate these estimates into the 20 end-use categories,
two separate steps are taken. For MACs, recent industry-supplied market
saturation data and CFC use rates are used to estimate CFC consumption.
Industry sources estimate that ten percent of the cars driven in this region
are equipped with air conditioning. This estimate is combined with recent
data on the number of automobiles in these nations and CFC use per MAC unit,
to derive CFC consumption in the MAC end use.
1.1.4 CFC Demand Growth Rates
Projections of CFC demand in each end use assuming there are no controls
on CFC use were based on projections of compound use from the RIA, revised to
reflect input from industry sources. Exhibits A-8 to A-11 show the demand
growth rates assumed for each region of the world analyzed in this analysis.
Growth rates are estimated for each end use through the year 2050; assuming no
CFC controls demand is assumed to remain constant after 2050. The growth
assumptions applied vary among end uses and across geographical regions. The
growth rates reflect assumptions about the differences in demand for CFCs that
result from important cross-regional differences. These include differences
in the maturity of markets for various end uses, geographical differences,
such as climate, which are key determinants of the demand for some products
that use
-------
A-ll
EXHIBIT A-6
ESTIMATED USE OF CFC COMPOUNDS IN CPEs IN 1985
(percent)
End-Use Categories
Refrigeration:
Mobile Air Conditioners
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Retail Food Storage
Refrigerated Transport
Other Refrigeration
Total Refrigeration
Bloving Agent for Foam:
Rigid PU Foam
(residential refrigeration)
Rigid PU Foam
(refrigerated transport)
Rigid PU Foam
(other refrigeration)
Rigid PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Rigid PU Foam (packaging)
Flexible Foam
Rigid Non-PU Foam (packaging)
Rigid Non-PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Total Foam
Aerosol:
Aerosols
Total Aerosol
Miscellaneous:
Solvent Cleaning-Cold Cleaning
Solvent Cleaning-Vapor Cleaning
Sterilization
Total Miscellaneous
GRAND TOTAL
CFC-11
0.0
0.0
9.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
9.4
8.2
1.1
0.3
34.1
2.2
26.0
1.1
0.0
73.0
17.5
17.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
CFC-12 CFC-113
3.5
5.0
6.4
15.3
4.7
7.9
5.5
0.8
49.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
20.2
1.1
0.0
7.4
0.0
28.7
21.3
21.3
0.0 10.0
0.0 90.0
0.9 0.0
0.9 100.0
100.0 100.0
CFC-114 CFC-115
13.0
4.5
36.5
57.6
0.9
0.5
13.0 100.0
87.0
87.0
100.0 100.0
Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: ICF analysis.
-------
A-12
EXHIBIT A-7
ESTIMATED USE OF CFC COMPOUNDS IN ROW IN 1985
(percent)
End-Use Categories
Refrigeration:
Mobile Air Conditioners
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Retail Food Storage
Refrigerated Transport
Other Refrigeration
Total Refrigeration
Bloving Agent for Foam:
Rigid PU Foam
(residential refrigeration)
Rigid PU Foam
(refrigerated transport)
Rigid PU Foam
(other refrigeration)
Rigid PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Rigid PU Foam (packaging)
Flexible Foam
Rigid Non-PU Foam (packaging)
Rigid Non-PU Foam
(structure insulation)
Total Foam
Aerosol:
Aerosols
Total Aerosol
Miscellaneous:
Solvent Cleaning-Cold Cleaning
Solvent Cleaning-Vapor Cleaning
Sterilization
Total Miscellaneous
GRAND TOTAL
CFC-11
0.0
0.0
12.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.9
6.7
1.1
0.3
7.7
1.5
35.0
0.5
0.0
52.8
34.3
34.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
CFC- 12 CFC- 113
4.6
4.6
6.3
14.9
4.6
7.8
5.4
1.0
49.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.5
0.0
4.1
0.0
5-3
44.9
44.9
0.0 10.0
0.0 90.0
0.6
0.6 100.0
100.0 100.0
CFC-114 CFC-115
13.0
4.5
36.5
57.6
0.9
0.4
13.0 100.0
87.0
87.0
100.0 100.0
Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: ICF analysis.
-------
A-13
Exhibit A-8
Growth Rate Assumptions for the United States
End Use
MACS
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
3etai 1 Food Storage
Other Refrigeration
Refrigerated Transport
Rgd PU Foam Refrigeration
Rgd PU Foam - Other
Refrigeration Appliances
Rgd PU Foam - Refrigerated
Transport
Rgd PU Foam Insulation
Rgd PU Foam Packaging
Flexible Foam
Rgd-Non PU Foam Insulation
Rgd Non-PU Foam Packaging
Cold Cleaning
Vapor Oegreasing
Sterilization
Aerosols
Compound
CFC-12
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-113
CFC-113
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
1985-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2050
l.OX
l.OX
5. OX
5. OX
0.2X '
l.OX
0.6X
3.5X
3.5X
1.6X
3.5X
2.8X
6. OX
2.8X
6. OX
l.OX
2.8X
2.8X
8. OX
4. OX
8.5X
8.5X
3.6X
8. OX
3.4X
3.4X
3.4X
6. OX
6. OX
O.SX
0.1X
0.1X
l.OX
l.OX
4. OX
4. OX
0.2X
l.OX
0.6X
3.5X
3.5X
1.6X
3.5%
2.8X
6. OX
2.8X
6. OX
l.OX
2.8X
2.8X
4. OX
2. OX
4. OX
4. OX
2. OX
5. OX
2.8X
2.8X
2.8X
5. OX
5. OX
O.SX
0.1X
o.ix
l.OX
l.OX
3. OX
3. OX
Q.2X
•l.OX
0.6X
2.5X
2.SX
1.6X
2.5X
2.8X
5. OX
2.8X
5. OX
l.OX
2.8X
2.8X
3. OX
1.5X
2. OX
2. OX
1.5X
3.5X
2. OX
2. OX
2. OX
3. OX
3. OX
O.SX
O.IX
O.IX
l.OX
l.OX
3. OX
3. OX
3. IX
l.OX
O.SX
2.5X
2.5X
1.5X
•2. OX
2.5X
2.5X
2.SX
2.5X
l.OX
2.5X
2.5X
2.5X
1.3X
2. OX
2. OX
l.OX
3.5X
2. OX
2. OX
2. OX
2.5X
2.5X
O.SX
O.IX
O.IX
Source: ICF analysis
-------
A-14
Exhibit A-9
Growth Rate Assumptions for the Western Industrialized Countries
End Use
MACS
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Retail Fooo Storage
Other Refrigeration
Refrigerated Transport
Rgd PU Foam Refrigeration
Rgd PU Foam - Other
Refrigeration Appliances
Rgd PU Foam - Refrigerated
Transport
Rgd PU Foam - Insulation
Rgd PU Foam Packaging
Flexible Foam
Rgd-Non PU Foam Insulation
Rgd Non-PU Foam Packaging
Cold Cleaning
Vapor Oegreasing
Steri lization
Aerosols
Compound
CFC-12
CFC-12
CFC-I1
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-113
CFC-113
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
1985-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2050
1.0%
4. OX
5. OX
5. OX
0.1X
l.OX
0.4X
3.5X
2.3%
1.6%
2.3%
2.8%
5. OX
2.8X
5. OX
4. OX
2.8X
2.8X
8. OX
4. OX
8.5X
8.5X
3.6X
8. OX
3. OX
3. OX
2.8X
6. OX
6. OX
0.5X
2. OX
2. OX
l.OX
3. OX
4. OX
4. OX
0.1X
l.OX
0.4X
3.5X
2.0%
1.6%
2.0%
2.8%
5.0%
2.8%
5.0%
3.0%
2.8X
2.8X
4. OX
2.0%
4. OX
4. OX
2.0%
5. OX
2.5X
2.5X
2.3%
5. OX
5. OX
0.5X
l.OX
l.OX
l.OX
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.1%
l.OX
0.4%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.8%
5.0%
2.8%
5.0%
2.0%
2.8%
2.8X
3. OX
1.5X
2. OX
2. OX
1.5%
3.5X
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
2.5%
2.5%
0.5%
l.OX
l.OX
l.OX
l.OX
3.0%
2.0%
0.1%
i.0%
0.4%
2.5%
:.s%
1 . 5%
1.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
1.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
1.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
3.5%
1.5%
l.SX
1.5X
2.5%
2.5X
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
Source: IGF analysis
-------
A-15
Exhibit A-10
Growth Rate Assumotions for the Centrally Plannea Economies
End Use
MACS
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Setai 1 Fooo Storage
Other Refrigeration
Refrigerated Transoort
Rgd PU Foam Refrigeration
Rgd PU Foam - Other
Refrigeration Appliances
Rgd PU Foam - Refrigerated
Transport.
Rgd PU Foam Insulation
Rgd PU Foam Packaging
Flexible Foam
Rgd-Non PU Foam Insulation
Rgd Non-PU Foam Packaging
Cold Cleaning
Vapor Degreasing
Steri lization
Aerosols
Compound
CFC-12
CFC-12
CFC-il
CFC-12
CFC-1U
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-113
CFC-113 '
CFC-12
CFC-11 '
CFC-12
1985-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2050
4.0%
4. OX
3, OX
3. OX
1.0%
2. OX
2. OX
5.0%
4. OX
4.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6. OX
5. OX
6. OX
4. OX
5. OX
5. OX
4. OX
8. OX
8.5X
8.5X
5. OX
O.OX
3.4X
3.4X
3. OX
4. OX
4. OX
2. OX
3. OX
3. OX
2. OX
2. OX
3.0%
3. OX
l.OX
1.5%
1.5%
3.5%
3.0%
2. OX
3. OX
3.0%
4. OX
3. OX
4. OX
2. OX
3. OX
3. OX
2.8X
5.5X
5. OX
5.0%
2. OX
O.OX
2.5X
2.5X
2.5X
3. OX
3. OX
2. OX
3. OX
3. OX
1 . 5%
2 . 0%
2 . 0%
2 . 0%
0.5%
1 . 5%
1 . 5%
3 . 5X.
i rv'
1 . :'/.
3.0%
2 . EK
3.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2. OX
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
4 . 0%
2. OX
2.0%
1.5%
O.OX
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
2. OX
2. OX
1 . 0%
2.0%
2.0%
2 . OX
0 . 5%
1.0%
1.0%
2 . 3%
Z . 0%
: . 3%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2. OX
:. . s%
0.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1 . 5%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Source: ICF analysis
-------
A-16
Exhibit A-ll
Growth Rate Assumptions for the Rest of the World
End Use
MACS
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Retai 1 rooa Storage
Other Refrigeration
Refrigerated Transport
Rgd PU Foam Refrigeration
Rgd PU Foam - Other
Refrigeration Appliances
Rgd PU Foam - Refrigerated
Transport
Rgd PU Foam insulation
Rgd PU Foam Packaging
Flexible Foam
Rgd-Non PU Foam Insulation
Rgd Non-PU Foam Packaging
Cold Cleaning
Vapor Oegreasing
Sterilization
Aerosols
Compound
CFC-12
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-12
CFC-115
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-U
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-114
CFC-113
CFC-113
CFC-12
CFC-11
CFC-12
1985-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2050
5.0%
5. OX
5. OX
5. OX
l.OX
3. OX
l.OX
4. OX
4. OX
3. OX
4. OX
3. OX
6.0%
3. OX
6. OX
5. OX
3. OX
3. OX
4. OX
8. OX
8.5X
8.5X
4. OX
O.OX
3.4X
3.4X
l.OX
7. OX
7. OX
3. OX
6. OX
6. OX
4. OX
4. OX
4. OX
4. OX
l.OX
2. OX
l.OX
3.5%
3. OX
2. OX
3. OX
3.0%
6.0%
3. OX
6. OX
4. OX
3. OX
3. OX
2. OX
4. OX
4. OX
4. OX
2.0%
O.OX
2.5%
2.5X
l.OX
6.0%
6.0%
2. OX
5. OX
5. OX
3. OX
3.0%
4. OX
4.0%
l.OX
2. OX
1.0%
3.5X
2.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
5.0%
'3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
O.OX
2. OX
2. OX
l.OX
3.5%
3.5%
1.5%
3. OX
3. OX
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
i.0%
l.OX
1.0%
3.0%
2.5X
•1.5X
2.5%
2.5%
5.0%
2.5%
5.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5X
1.5X
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
0.0%
1.5X
l.SX
l.OX
3. OX
3. OX
1.0%
2.5X
2.5X
Source: ICF analysis
-------
A-17
CFCs, such as chillers and insulation, and the different stages of economic
development that various regions have attained and are expected to attain in
the future. The end use growth rates applied here are based on the best
available information in the U.S., however, the rates could be further refined
with additional research into international markets. The assumptions
supporting the growth rates for each region are summarized below.
In the U.S., the markets for refrigeration end uses such as MACs and
residential refrigeration are near saturation. As a result, most of the
future demand for CFCs in these end use areas is expected to be for
replacement of existing capital stock as opposed to new growth; therefore, the
growth rates in these end uses are assumed to be at relatively low rates of 1
percent annually. Growth rates for CFCs in foam applications are taken from
the RIA. These growth rates reflect high demand in the building and
construction industry. The growth in demand for CFC-113 for solvent
applications is expected to be high because of the wide application of the
compound in the growing electronics industry.
In general, the demand for CFCs in other western industrialized
countries is assumed to grow at rates similar to those in the U.S. over the
period of analysis. One notable difference is in the growth rate assumed for
the aerosol end use. Prior to signing the Montreal Protocol, the U.S. had
controlled non-essential uses of CFCs in this end use, however, European
nations had not; growth in demand in this end use, therefore, is assumed to be
higher in the WIC region than in the U.S. with an annual average of 1 percent
growth in western industrialized countries verses a U.S. annual growth rate of
0.1 percent.
Growth rates in nations with centrally-planned economies and in the rest
of the world generally are assumed to be higher than those in the U.S. and
other western industrialized countries. As the nations in the former
categories, such as India, China, and U.S.S.R., continue their economic
development, the demand for items such as refrigerators should increase
rapidly. For example, the growth in demand for refrigerators in these regions
is assumed to be faster than that in the U.S. (approximately 4 percent
annually versus 1 percent in the U.S.), because the U.S. refrigeration market
has reached market maturity, and new residential refrigeration demand will be
for replacement rather than growth. For the nations in the CPE category, the
growth rates assumed for refrigeration, insulation, sterilization, and aerosol
end uses also take into account the increase in production capacity of CFC-11,
12, 114, and 115 that was reported in the RIA to have occurred over the 1985-
1990 period. CFC-113 growth rates are assumed to be lower in CPE nations than
in the U.S., because the electronics industries are smaller in this region.
In the ROW category, CFC-113 growth rate estimates are higher than in the U.S.
The growth rates applied in this analysis represent expectations based
on current knowledge. Uncertainties about the future, however, make it
difficult to balance aggregate rates of growth in demand for controlled
substances with the growth rates specified for the end uses in which
controlled substances are applied. Furthermore, it is difficult to project
any new end uses to which CFCs could be applied in the future, and the growth
in demand that would have resulted from those new uses.
For purposes of this analysis, future compound demand that is not
allocated among the 20 end uses evaluated in this report has been taken into
-------
A-18
account. Estimates of unallocated demand were developed by comparing the
total demand for each controlled substance implicit in the end use growth
rates specified above to estimates of total compound demand developed in the
RIA. In most cases, the estimates of total demand in the RIA are higher than
the estimates developed for this analysis, because of differences in the end
uses evaluated, the regional categorization used, and the growth rates
assumed. For purposes of this analysis, the differences in estimated total
compound demand are assumed to represent the level of unallocated future
demand. Using this approach, the estimates of total compound demand is the
same here as in the RIA, however, the distribution of total demand is
different.
1.1.5 Estimating Demand Assuming a Phaseout in CFC Use
CFC demand under a phaseout that does not employ HCFCs is estimated
assuming that the use of all fully-halogenated CFCs, as projected assuming
there are no controls on CFC use, is reduced following the provisions of the
Montreal Protocol, and then eliminated by the year 2000. As allowed under the
Protocol, developing countries are given an additional 10 years to achieve the
complete phase out of CFCs. In addition, the U.S.S.R and Eastern Europe
nations are assumed to freeze compound use in 1989 at 1989 levels rather than
1986 levels, and nations that produce 0.3 kilograms of CFCs per capita or less
annually are assumed to freeze production at 1992 levels starting in 1992.
For purposes of this analysis, it is also assumed that 100 percent
participation and compliance with these use restrictions is achieved globally.
Future demand for CFCs that is unallocated to existing uses also is phased out
following the Protocol provisions.
1.1.6 Estimating Total Emissions Assuming No Controls on CFC Use and
Assuming a Phaseout in CFC Use
Using the estimates of total compound demand in 20 end use areas and
unallocated future demand, estimates of regional emissions of each compound
from each end use are developed by applying release tables for each end use.
The release tables used are presented in Exhibit A-12. Estimates of emissions
over time are developed by applying release tables to the pattern of CFC use.
The release tables indicate the estimated cumulative releases that occur
following the initial year of compound use. For example, in the chillers end
use, CFCs are assumed to be completely vented over a four year period. By the
second year, 27 percent of the total amount of the chemical initially used has
been vented. The final cumulative release rate of 1.0 in year four indicates
that all of the compound used is vented by that year. In some end-use areas,
such as aerosols and flexible foams, compounds are released immediately upon
use. These end-uses have release rates of 1.0 in the first year.
With projections of emissions by region, end use, and compound,
aggregate estimates of global compound emissions over the period 1985 to 2050
-------
EXHIBIT A-12
RELEASE TABLES FOR EACH CFC END USE AREA
Year of Release
1 23 4 5 6 7 « 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19. 20
MACS
Residential Refrigeration
Chillers
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouse
Retail Food Storage
Other Refrigeration
Refrigerated Transport
Rgd PU Foam Refrigeration
RFP -- Other Appliances
RPF -- Refrig Transport
Rgd PU Foam Insulation
Rgd PU Foam Packaging
Flexible Foam
Rgd-Non PU Foam Insulation
Rgd-Non-PU Foam Packaging
Cold Cleaning
Vapor Degreasing
Sterilization
Aerosols
0.190 0.271 0.344 1.000
0.094 0.1070.121 0.134 0.147 0.160 0.172 0.185 0.197 0.209 0.221 0.233 0.244 0.2SS 0.267 0.278 1.000
0.190 0.271 0.344 1.000
0.190 0.271 0.344 0.410 0.469 0.522 0.570 0.613 0.651 0.686 0.718 0.746 0.771 0.794 0.815 0.833 1.000
0.190 0.271 0.344 0.410 0.469 0.522 0.570 0.613 0.651 0.686 0.718 0.746 0.771 0.794 0.815 0.833 1.000
0.190 0.271 0.344 0.410 0.469 0.522 0.570 0.613 0.651 0.686 0.718 0.746 0.771 0.794 0.815 0.833 1.000
0.094 0.107 0.121 0.134 0.147 0.160 0.172 0.185 0.197 0.209 0.221 0.233 0.244 0.255 0.267 0.278 1.000
0.037 0.095 0.152 0.209 0.264 0.319 0.374 0.428 0.482 0.535 0.589 0.642 1.000
0.141 0.1790.216 0.251 0.285 0.317 0.348 0.377 0.405 0.432 0.458 0.482 0.505 0.528 0.549 0.569 0.589 0.607 0.625 1.000
0.094 0.107 0.121 0.134 0.147 0.160 0.172 0.185 0.197 0.209 0.221 0.233 0.244 0.255 0.267 0.278 1.000
0.094 0.107 0.121 0.134 0.147 0.160 0.172 0.185 0.197 0.209 0.221 0.233 1.000
0.141 0.179 0.216 0.251 0.285 0.317 0.348 0.377 0.405 0.432 0.458 0.482 0.505 0.528 0.549 0.569 0.589 0.607 0.625 1.00'J
0.141 0.179 0.216 0.251 0.285 0.317 0.348 0.377 0.405 0.432 0.458 0.482 0.505 0.528 0.549 0.569 0.589 0.607 0.625 1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Source: ICF Analysis
-------
A-20
are developed. Exhibits A-13 and A-14, respectively, present estimates of
total emissions assuming there are no controls on CFCs and a phaseout of CFCs,
respectively. Under the phaseout, even though CFC use is assumed to end in
the year 2000, emissions from banked sources continue until the sources are
depleted.
1.2 ESTIMATING CHLORINE CONCENTRATIONS AND GLOBAL WARMING CONTRIBUTIONS
ASSUMING NO CONTROLS AND A CFC PHASEOUT
A parameterized model, which has been used in previous EPA analyses of
the stratosphere, is used to estimate chlorine concentrations over time. The
method is taken from Connell2, and translates emissions of the compounds into
Clx levels using atmospheric lifetimes and conversion factors for each
compound. The model is described in Appendix I. To evaluate the incremental
Clx contributions of HCFCs, all Clx estimates are expressed as increases in
Clx relative to 1985 levels of about 2.7 ppbv.
Calculations of global equilibrium warming are based on a model adapted
from a one-dimensional radiative-convective model developed by the Goddard
Institute for Space Studies (GISS) for estimating temperature increases
associated with atmospheric C02 increases. The model, which has been used in
previous EPA analyses of the stratosphere, such as the RIA, uses estimates of
emissions of greenhouse gases and radiative forcing constants for each gas to
compute changes in global equilibrium temperature.3 For this report, the
model was extended to evaluate the influence of previously-excluded CFCs (CFC-
113, CFC-114, and CFC-115) as well as emissions of the HCFCs and HFCs.
1.2.1 Halons and Other Trace Gases
In addition to CFCs, emissions of other compounds and trace gases also
have an important impact on stratospheric chlorine concentrations and global
warming. Estimates of the emissions of these compounds are therefore
necessary to project future trends in stratospheric chlorine and global
warming. Therefore, in estimating environmental effects assuming no controls
2 P.S. Connell, A Parameterized Numerical Fit to Total Column Ozone
Changes Calculated by the LLNL 1-D Model of the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California.
3 Equilibrium temperature change refers to the increase in the average
global surface temperature that would be expected as the result of the changed
radiative properties of the atmosphere associated with increases in
concentrations of greenhouse gases. The estimates are called "equilibrium"
increases because they assume that the Earth's climate system has equilibrated
with the changed radiative properties of the atmosphere (i.e., that all
positive and negative feedback associated, with global warming have occurred.)
-------
A-2L
Exhibit A-13
TOTAL EMISSIONS ASSUMING NO CONTROLS ON CFC USE
YEAR
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060'
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
2105
2110
2115
2120
2125
2130
2135
2140
2145
2150
2155
2160
2165
CFC-11
278.3
399.3
489.0
584.1
686.4
785.6
890.8
1Q08.5
1141.1
1291.0
1460.6
1652.6
1869.7
2115.4
2189.5
2248.9
2298.0
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
2330.1
CFC-12
363.8
481.7
605.6
743.6
880.3
1004.3
1139.9
1290.8
1460.4
1652.4
1869.5
2115.1
2393.1
2707.5
2811.5
2862.5
2905.4
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
2919.9
Millions of Kilograms
CFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115
96.9
136.5
171.9
208.5
245.4
280.3
317.8
359.7
407.0
460.4
520.9
589.4
666.9
754.5
815.1
852.2
875.5
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
150.5
240.6
304.4
371.5
420.3
475.5
538.0
608.7
688.7
779.2
881.6
997.4
1128.5
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
1276.8
14.3
18.0
21.3
24.5
27.7
31.4
35.5
40.2
45.5
51.4
58.2
65.8
74.5
84.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
85.3
4.7
7.3
9.3
11.5
13.5
15.4
17.5
19.8
22.4
25.3
28.6
32.4
36.6
41.5
44.8
46.8
48.1
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
CCL4
87.4
118.8
140.4
162.0
183.3
207.4
234.6
265.5
300.3
339.8
384.5
435.0
492.1
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
556.8
CH3CCL3
813.8
733.1
866.4
992.9
1123.4
1271.0
1438.1
1627.0
1840.9
2082.8
2356.5
2666.1
3016.5
3412.9
3412.9-
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
341 2 '.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
rialon
1211
SS333
1.4
3.3
6.2
9.9
14.8
19.7
24.2
29.0
33.6
38.9
45.0
52.0
60.2
69.6
78.7
86.7
93.9
99.4
100.2
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
LOO. 8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
100.8
Ha Ion
1301
snvwn
2.1
3.8
5.0
5.8
6.9
8.4
9.8
11.3
13.1
15.0
17.3
20.1
23.4
27.4
30.5
33.1
35.3
37.3
38.8
39.6
40.3
40.5
40.5
40.5
JO. 5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.5
-------
A-22
Exhibit A-14
TOTAL EMISSIONS ASSUMING A CFC PHASEOUT*
YEAR
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 .
2012
2013
2014
2015 .
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2040
2065
2070
2165
CFC-11
278.3
320.0
338.5
357.2
352.8
361.1
370.8
380.5
342.7
346.1
350.9
356.1
360.3
304.0
299.7
196.7
194.5
193.5
178.3
178.2
180.2
178.5
176.4
144.8
139.3
97.3
92.5
78.9
75.0
70.0
66.5
61.2
45.2
42.1
17.6
16.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
CFC-12
363.8
381.7
400.8
419.3
422.6
439.2
450.5
450.8
413.0
416.6
420.7
411.0
416.5
355.2
360.6
259.4 .
240.2
237.7
186.6
188.1
183.7
178.9
176.4
148.7
138.4
94.8
86.4
79.6
70.3
57.9
54.5
36.5
31.2
29.4
19.4
18. 4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Millions of Kilograms
CFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115
96.9
105.6
113.2
120.3
128.5
136.5
141.4
149.3
156.7
164.4
171.9
179.4
186.7
194.2
201.4
208.5
215.5
224.8
231.5
238.3
245.4
252.4
259.3
266.5
273.3
280.3
287.5 '
294.8
302.3
310.0
317.8
325.9
334.0
342.4
350.9
359.7
589.4
875.5
879.1
879.1
150.5
179.5
200.9
213.3
.198.3
201.9
205.8 .
209.9
175.0
,177.7
180.6
183.5
186.5
129.8
129.7
29.7
29.7
29.7
23.8
23.8
23.8
23.8
23.8
14.9
U.9 .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0'
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.3
15.1-
15.8
16.2
15.7
15.9
16.1
16.0
14.0
14.1
14.1
13.8
13.8
10.9
10.6
5.5
4.8
4.7
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.1
2.0
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.7
5.7
6.0-
6.5
6.6
6.9
7.1
7.4
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
6.9
6.9
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.2
4.9
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
CCL4
87.4
96.6
102.6
107.6
103.1
104.2
105.4
106.5
90.6
91.2
91.8
92.5
93.2
69:3
67.6
26.7
26.7
26.7
21.3
21.3
21.3
21.3
21.3
13.3
13.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
CH3CCL3
813.8
606.6
642.0
670.7
635.9
641.3
646.6
652.3
655.0
657.9
660.9
664.0
667.2
670.6
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
664.0
Ha Ion
1211
1.4
1.7
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.2
4.7
5.2
5.7
6.5
6.8
7.4
8.1
8.7
9.4
10.0
10.6
11.2
12.5
13.3
13.9
14.6
15.2 .
15.8
15.3
15.7
16.0
16.4
16.8
17.2
17.6
17.9
18.3
18.4
18.0
17.5
17.5
17.4
Ha Ion
1301
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.0
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.3
Phaseout figures generated assuming a methyl chloroform freeze and a carbon tetrachloride phaseout.
-------
A-23
and a phaseout, total emissions also include emissions of the following
compounds.4 In particular:
• HCFC-22, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform are used
currently and contribute to chlorine and global warming;
• Halon 1211 and Halon 1301, compounds restricted under
the Montreal Protocol, contribute to global warming5;
and
• Other trace gases, carbon dioxide (C02) , methane
(CH<.) , and nitrous oxide (N20) are greenhouse gases.
The following assumptions used in estimating total emissions assuming no
controls and a phaseout of CFC use for these compounds and trace gases are
summarized in Exhibits A-15 and A-16.
• For both scenarios, RIA estimates of global HCFC-22
demand were used to reflect future use of this
compound in its current applications (i.e., not as a
substitute for CFCs)6.
• Demand for carbon tetrachloride, used as a feedstock
in the production of some CFCs, is assumed to grow at
rates presented in the RIA through 2050 when
estimating emission assuming there are no controls on
CFCs. For estimates assuming a phaseout, use of
carbon tetrachloride is assumed to be phased out along
with CFCs.7
• For estimating emissions assuming no controls, methyl
chloroform demand is assumed to grow at rates
presented in the RIA. For estimates assuming a
phaseout, methyl chloroform use was assumed to be
frozen at 1986 levels starting in 1989.
* The assumptions presented here for a phase-out of these trace gases
are applied in estimating total emissions and environmental effects of the
substitution scenarios developed in Chapter 4 of this report.
5 Halon 2402 also contributes to global warming, however, there are few
data for this compound, and the use is very small. The compound is not
considered in this analysis.
6 For this analysis, RIA estimates of historical (pre-1986) production
of HCFC-22 were revised, resulting in slightly larger emissions of this
compound following 1985.
7 NOTE: The phaseout assumptions used in estimating total emissions for
carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform have been developed for modelling
purposes only and do not reflect policy statements.
-------
A-24
EXHIBIT A-15
PROJECTED GLOBAL GROWTH RATES
FOR OTHER OZONE DEPLETING COMPOUNDS
Proiected Global
Halon 1211
Halon 1301
HCFC-22
Methyl Chloroform .
Carbon Tetrachloride
1986-1992
9.77
3.46
4.37
4.70
4.90
1992-2000
4.80
-2.20
2.74
2.78
2.91
Growth Rates
2000-2050
2.93
3.16
2.50
2.50
2.50
2050+
0
0
0
0
0
Source: U.S. EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis: Protection of Stratospheric
Ozone. August 1, 1988. Exhibits 4-6 and 4-7.
-------
A-25
RIA projections of Halon 1211 and Halon 1301 use and
emissions were used to estimate emissions assuming
there are no controls. For the phaseout estimates,
the use of halons was assumed to be frozen at 1986
levels starting in 1992, as specified in the Montreal
Protocol.
Concentrations of other trace gases (C02, CH4, and
N20) were assumed to grow at the same rates as those
presented in the RIA for both the no controls and
phaseout estimates. These rates are presented in
Exhibit A-16.
-------
A-26
EXHIBIT A-16
GROWTH OF TRACE GAS CONCENTRATIONS OVER TIME
Year
1985
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
2165
Source: U.S.
Stratospheric
C02 •
(ppm)
350.2
366.0
422.0
508.0
625.0
772.0
1,154.2
EPA. Regulatory
J)zone, August 1,
CH4
(ppm)
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.8
Impact
1988,
N20
(ppb)
303.1
312.3
328.3
345.1
362.8
381.4
434.3
Analysis: Protection of
page 4-24.
-------
APPENDIX B
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES AND APPLICABILITY
OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES FOR CFCs
-------
B-1
EXHIBIT B-1
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HCFC-22
Formula: CHClFj
Molecular Weight: 86.47
Ozone Depletion Potential:
Equilibrium -- 0.05a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant (°C per ppb concentration) --' 0.053°C
Atmospheric Lifetime: 20 years6'
FlanmabiIity; No
Toxicity Status: TLV = 1000 ppm
Current Uses:
Refrigerant - Residential air conditioning
Retail food refrigeration
Process refrigeration
Cold storage warehouses
Refrigerated transport
Other end-uses (refrigerated appliances, etc.)
Aerosol Propellant
Blowing Agent - Extruded polystyrene foams
Potential Substitution:
Refrigerant • Mobile air conditioners
Residential refrigeration
Chillers
Retail food refrigeration
Process refrigeration
Cold storage warehouses
Refrigerated transport
Other end-uses
Blowing Agent - Rigid non-polyurethane foam (insulation)
Rigid non-polyurethane foam (packaging)
a Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-D Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
Radiative forcing constants derived from DuPont modeled warming estimates in D.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Scientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
d Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Connell).
-------
8-2
EXHIBIT B-2
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HCFC-22
Formula: CHCljCFj
Molecular Weight; 152.95
Ozone Depletion Potential;
Equilibrium -- 0.02a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant (°C per ppb concentration) -- 0.045°C
Atmospheric lifetime; 2 years6'
FI amiability; No
Toxicity Status: [TO BE COMPLETED)
Current Uses; None
Potential Substitution;
Refrigerant - Chillers (CFC-11)
Blowing Agent - Rigid polyurethane foam (refrigeration)
Rigid polyurethane foam (insulation)
Rigid polyurethane foam (packaging)
Flexible foam
Solvent Cleaning - Cotd cleaning
8 Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
Radiative forcing constants derived from DuPont modeled warming estimates in O.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Scientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone; 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-D Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Cornell).
-------
B-3
EXHIBIT B-3
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HCFC-124
Formula: CHClFCFj
Molecular Weight: 136.49
Ozone Depletion Potential:
Equilibrium -- 0.02a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant (°C per ppb concentration) -- 0.053°C
Atmospheric Lifetime: 8 years0'
FlammabiIitv: No
Toxicity Status: tTO BE COMPLETED]
Current Uses: None
Potential Substitution:
Blowing Agent - Rigid non-polyurethane foam (insulation)
Rigid non-polyurethane foam (packaging)
Refrigeration - Chillers
Mobile air conditioners (as blend component with HCFC-22 and HFC-152a)
Residential refrigeration (as blend component with HCFC-22 and HFC-152a)
8 Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
Radiative forcing con ints derived from DuPont modeled warming estimates in D.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Scientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone; 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Cornell).
-------
B-4
EXHIBIT B-4
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HCFC-Ulb
formula: CHjCCljF
Molecular Weight: 116.97
Ozone Depletion Potential:
Equilibrium -- 0.08a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant ("C per ppb concentration) --,0.037°C
Atmospheric Lifetime: 9 years6'
Flaimiability: Yes
Toxicitv Status: Incomplete [TO BE COMPLETED]
Current Uses; None
Potential Substitution:
Blowing Agent - Rigid polyurethane foam (refrigeration)
Rigid polyurethane foam (insulation)
Rigid polyurethane foam (packaging)
Flexible foam
Solvent Cleaning - Cold cleaning
Vapor degreesing
Aerosol Propellent
a Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Laurence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
Radiative forcing constants derived.from DuPont modeled uarming estimates in D.A. Fisher et at., "Relative
Effects on Global Uarming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Seientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone; 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning,that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
d Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-D Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in.this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Connell).
-------
B-5
EXHIBIT B-5
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HCFC-U2b
Formula: CHjCClFj
Molecular Weight: 100.51
Ozone Depletion Potential:
Equilibrium -- 0.06a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant (°C per ppb concentration) -- 0.050°C
Atmospheric Lifetime; 25 years0'
Flammability: Yes
Toxieity Status: TLV = 1000 ppm
Current Uses: None
Potential Substitution:
Blowing Agent - Rigid non-polyurethane foam (insulation)
Rigid non-polyurethane foam (packaging)
Aerosol Propellant
Refrigerant - (As blend component with HCFC-22 alone or HCFC-22 and HCFC-124)
a Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
Radiative forcing constants derived from OuPont modeled warming estimates in D.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Scientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Connell).
-------
8-6
EXHIBIT B-6
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HFC-125
Formula: CHFjCFj
Molecular Weight: 101.03
Ozone Depletion Potential;
Equilibrium -- 0.0a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant (°C per ppb concentration) -- 0.08°C
Atmospheric lifetime; 37 years0'
Flammability; No
Toxicitv Status; [TO BE COMPLETED]
Current Uses; None
Potential Substitution; Refrigerant
a Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Laurence Liver-more National Laboratory 1-D Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
b Radiative forcing constants derived from DuPont modeled warming estimates in D.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogensted Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Scientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone; 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has .elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory-1-0 Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Cornell).
-------
8-7
EXHIBIT B-7
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HFC-134a
Formula: CHjFCFj
Molecular Weight: 102.04
Ozone Depletion Potential:
Equilibrium -- 0.0a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant (°C per ppb concentration) -- 0.047°C'
Atmospheric Lifetime: 21 years0'
Flammabilitv: No
Toxicity Status: [TO BE COMPLETED]
Current Uses: None
orb
Potential Substitution:
Refrigerant
Blowing Agent
- Mobile air conditioners
Residential refrigerators and freezers
Chillers (CFC-12.CFC-114, Reciprocating)
Process refrigeration
Cold storage warehouse
Retail food refrigeration
Refrigerated transport
Other refrigeration end-uses
- Rigid non-polyurethane foam (insulation)
Rigid non-polyurethane foam (packaging)
Sterilization - (As a blend with ethylene oxide)
Aerosol Propellent
8 Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere. •
Radiative forcing constants derived from OuPont modeled warming estimates in D.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Seientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone; 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
Lifetime estimates from Laurence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Connell).
-------
8-8
EXHIBIT B-8
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HFC-143a
Formula; CHjCFj
Molecular Weight: 84.05
Ozone Depletion Potential:
Equilibrium •- 0.0a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant (°C per ppb concentration) -- 0.041°C
Atmospheric lifetime; 54.0 years0'
Flammabilitv; Yes
Toxicology; [TO BE COMPLETED]
Current Uses; None
Potential Substitution: Refrigerant
a Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-D Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
Radiative forcing constants derived from OuPont modeled warming estimates in O.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Scientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone; 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Connell).
-------
8-9
EXHIBIT B-9
ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES: HCFC-152a
Formula: CHjCHFg
Molecular Weight; 66.06
Ozone Depletion Potential:
Equilibrium -- 0.0a
Greenhouse Characteristics:
Radiative forcing constant ("C per ppb concentration) -- 0.029°CC>
Atmospheric lifetime; 2 years0'
Flamnabilitv. Yes
Toxicology; TLV = 1000 ppm
Current Uses:
Refrigerant - Chillers (as blend component with CFC-12)
Refrigerated transport (as blend component with CFC-12)
Potential Substitution;
Refrigerant - Residential refrigerators and freezers (as blend component with OME or
HCFC-22 and HCFC-124)
Chillers (CFC-12, CFC-114, Reciprocating)
Refrigerated transport
Other refrigeration end-uses (as blend component with DME or HCFC-22
and HCFC-124)
Aerosol Propellant
a Relative to CFC-11. Ozone depletion estimates from Laurence Livermore National Laboratory 1-D Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere.
b Radiative forcing constants derived from OuPont modeled warming estimates in D.A. Fisher et al., "Relative
Effects on Global Warming of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and Industrial Interest," Scientific
Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1989. AFEAs Report, September 1989.
c The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the compound will remain in the atmosphere.
The lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime has elapsed, the
remaining level in the atmosphere is about 1/e or 37 percent of the original value.
Lifetime estimates from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1-0 Model of the Troposphere and
Stratosphere. The estimates used in this analysis have been updated from previous EPA analyses (personal
communication with P. Cornell).
-------
APPENDIX C
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES IN
VARIOUS END USE AREAS
-------
C-1
EXHIBIT C-1
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- MOBILE AIR CONDITIONERS
Original CFC: CFC-12
'Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
DME/CFC-12
CFC-500
HCFC-22/HCFC-H2b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a/HCFC-124
HFC-1340
HCFC-22
Other Mixtures and Compounds
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof i lability
X E
X N
X N
X E,N
X N
N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 -3. OX?
1.0 O.OX
1.0
1.07 -2. OX
0.9 +3X
1.0 +8.9X
1
RetrofStability: 0 represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
For example, if producible HFC-134a would appear to be a very good substitute; however, a variety of mixtures might also work.
-------
C-2
EXHIBIT C-2
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- RESIDENTIAL REFRIGERATORS AMD FREEZERS
Original CFC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Compound/B I end
DME/CFC-12
CFC-500
HCFC-22/HCFC-K2b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a/HCFC-124
HFC-134a
HCFC-22/HFC-152a
DME/HFC-152a
HFC- 134
Mixture with a temperature
glide of 26° F (12 options)
Currently Strong Additional Replacement Changes in Energy
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi I ity Factor Consumption with Substitute
X N 1.0 -3. OX
X N 1.0 -S.OX
X E.N 1.0
X E 1.0 -3. OX
X E 1.0 +3. OX
X X E.N 1.0
X N 1.0 -S.OX
X E? 1.0
X N 1.0
' Retrofitability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
REFRIGERATION -- CHILLERS
Original CFC: CFC-11
C-3
EXHIBIT C-3
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
Currently
Strong
Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrofitability
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
HCFC-22
Ammonia
HCFC-123
HCFC-22/HCFC-152a
Other mixtures and compounds
N
N
N.E
N
N
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
+4. OX
-10.OX
+ 1.0X
-20.OX
1
Retrofitability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and M indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
A variety of mixtures with associated improvements in energy efficiency night also work.
-------
C-4
EXHIBIT C-4
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- CHILLERS
Original CFC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Currently Strong
Compound/Blend Available Candidate(s)
CFC-500 X
DME/CFC-12 X
HCFC-22 X
Ammonia X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a/HCFC-124 X
HFC-134a X
HCFC-22/HCFC-142b X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a X
HFC-152a X
Other mixtures and compounds
Additional
Possibilities Retrof i lability
N
N
N
N
N
E.N
E
E
N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 O.OX
1.0 -3. OX
1.0 +4. OX
1.0 -10. OX
1.0 -3. OX
1.0 +3. OX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1 Retrofliability: D represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
2 A variety of mixtures with associate! improvements in energy efficiency might also work.
-------
C-5
EXHIBIT C-5
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- CHILLERS
Original CFC: CFC-1H
Substitutes:
Compound/ 8 1 end
CFC-500
HCFC-22
Ammonia
HCFC-22/HFC-152a/HCFC-124
HCFC-124
HCFC-22/HCFC-142b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a
HFC-152a
Other mixtures and compounds
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi I ity
X N
X N
X N
X N
X N,E
X E
X E
X N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
^ 1.0 O.OX
1.0 +4.0%
1.0 -10. OX
1.0 -3. OX
1.0 +3. OX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
RetrofitabiIity: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
Other mixtures with associated energy efficiency improvements might also work.
-------
C-6
EXHIBIT C-6
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- PROCESS
Original CFC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Compound/B I end
CFC-500
DME/CFC-12
HCFC-22
HCFC-22/HFC- 152a/HCFC- 124
HFC-134a
HCFC-22/HCFC-142b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a
HFC-152a
Ammonia
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof i tabi I ity
X N
X N
XX N
X N.E
E
X E?
X E
X N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 . O.OX
1.0 -3. OX
1.0 +4. OX
1.0 -3. OX
1.0 +3. OX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0 -10. OX
RetrofitabiIity: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-7
EXHIBIT C-7
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- PROCESS
Original CFC: CFC-115 (As component of CFC-502)
Substitutes:
Compound/ B I end
CFC-500
HCFC-22
HCFC-22/HCFC-K2b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a
HFC-152a
Ammonia
HFC- 125
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof i tabil ity
X N
X E
X E
X E
X N
X N
X N.E
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 O.OX
1.0 +4. OX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0 -10. OX
1.0 O.OX
Retrofitability: 0 represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-8
EXHIBIT C-8
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- COLD STORAGE WAREHOUSE
Original CfC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Currently Strong
Compound/ Blend Available Candidate(s)
CFC-500 . X
HCFC-22 X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a/HCFC-124 X
HFC-134a X
HCFC-22/HCFC-H2b X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a X
HFC-1S2a X
Ammonia X
Other mixtures and compounds
Additional
Possibilities Retrof i tabi li ty
N
N
N,E
E
E
E .
N
N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 O.OX
1.0 -2.5X
1.0 -3. OX
1.0 +3. OX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0 -10. OX
1.0
^ RetrofStability: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
2 A variety of mixtures with associated improvements in energy efficiency might also work.
-------
C-9
EXHIBIT C-9
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION •- COLO STORAGE WAREHOUSE
Original CFC: CFC-115 (As component of CFC-502)
Substitutes:
Conipound/B I end
CFC-500
HCFC-22
HCFC-22/HCFC-K2b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a
HFC-152a
HFC-125
Ammonia
Other mixtures and compounds
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi li ty
X N
X , N
X E
X E
X N
X N,E
X N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 O.OX
1.0 -2.5X
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0 O.OX
1.0 -10. OX
1.0
Retrofilability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to net! equipment.
A variety of mixtures with associated improvements in energy efficiency might also work.
-------
C-10
EXHIBIT C-10
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -• RETAIL FOOD STORAGE
Original CfC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Currently Strong
Compound/Blend Available Candidate(s)
CFC-500 X
HCFC-22 X X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a/HCFC-124 X
HFC-134a
HCFC-22/HCFC-H2b X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a X
HFC-152a X
Ammonia X
Other mixtures and compounds
Additional
Possibilities Retrof itabi lity
N
N
N,E
N
E
E
N
N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 O.OX
1.0 -3.1X
1.0 -3. OX
1.0 +3. OX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0 -10. OX
1.0
1
Retrofitability: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
2 A variety of mixtures with associated improvements in energy efficiency might also work.
-------
C-11
EXHIBIT C-11
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -• RETAIL FOOD STORAGE
Original CFC: CFC-115 (As component of CFC-502)
Substitutes:
Currently Strong
Compound/Blend Available Candidate(s)
CFC-500 X
HCFC-22 X
HCFC-22/HCFC-H2b X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a X
HFC-152a X
Ammonia ' X
Other mixtures and compounds
HFC-125 X
Additional
Possibilities Retrof itabi lity
N
N
E?
E
N
N
X N
N.E
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 O.OX
1.0 -3. IX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0 -10. OX
1.0
1.0 O.OX
Retrofitability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
A variety of mixtures with associated energy efficiency improvements night also work.
-------
C-12
EXHIBIT C-12
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- REFRIGERATED TRANSPORT
Original CFC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Currently Strong
Compound/Blend Available Candidate(s)
CFC-500 X
HCFC-22 X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a/HCFC-124 X
HFC-134a X
HCFC-22/HCFC-142b X
HCFC-22/HFC-152a X
HFC-152a X
Other mixtures and compounds
Additional
Possibilities Retrof itabi I ity
N
N
N.E
N.O
E
E
N
X N
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0? 0.0%
1.0
1.07 -2. OX
0.9 +3. OX
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0
1
RetrofitabiIity: D represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
2 A variety of mixtures with associated energy efficiency improvements might also work.
-------
C-13
EXHIBIT C-13
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- REFRIGERATED TRANSPORT
Original CFC: CFC-115 (As
Substitutes:
Compound/ B I end
CFC-500
HCFC-22
HCFC-22/HCFC-K2b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a
HFC-152a
HFC-125
component of CFC-502)
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi li ty
X N
X N
X E
X . E
X N
X N,E
Replacement Changes in Energy
Factor Consumption with Substitute
1.0 O.OX
1.0 +4.3X
1.0
1.0 -20. OX
1.0
1.0 O.OX
1
RetrofitabiIity: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-H
EXHIBIT C-H
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION •- OTHER END USES
Original CFC: CfC-12
Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
CFC-500
HCFC-22
HCFC-22/HFC- 152a/HCFC- 124
HFC-134a
HCFC-22/HCFC-142b
HCFC-22/HFC- 152a
HFC-152a
Currently Strong Additional Replacement Changes in Energy
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof i tabil ity Factor Consumption with Substitute
X N 1.0 O.OX
X N 1.0 +4.3X
X N.E 1.0 -3.0%
X N.D 1.0 +3. OX
X E 1.0
X E 1.0 -20. OX
X N 1.0
Retrofitability: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-15
EXHIBIT C-1S
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
REFRIGERATION -- OTHER END USES
Original CFC: CFC-115 (As component of CFC-502)
Substitutes:
Cofflpound/B I end
HCFC-22
HCFC-22/HCFC-K2b
HCFC-22/HFC-152a
HFC-152a
HFC-125
Currently Strong Additional Replacement
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi lity Factor
X N 1.0
X E? 1.0
X E 1.0
X N 1.0
X N.E 1.0
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
+4.3X
-20. OX
O.OX
Retrofitability: D represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-16
EXHIBIT C-16
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAM -- RIGID POLYURETHANE (RESIDENTIAL REFRIGERATION)
Original CFC: CFC-11
Substitutes:
Currently Strong Additional
Compound/Blend Available Candidate(s) Possibilities
CFC-11/H20 X
Thick Fiberglass Batts X
HCFC-1232 . X
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-123 X
(Increased Thickness)
HCFC-Ulb2 X
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-H1b X
(Increased Thickness)
Vacuum Panels Foamed X
with C02
Replacement Changes in Energy
Retrofi lability Factor Consumption with Substitute
N 1.00 0.0% to +5. OX
N N/A +20.0% to +30. OX
N 1.153 . O.OX to +7. OX
N 1.21 ' O.OX
N 0.853 O.OX to +10. OX
N 0.94 O.OX
N N/A -40. OX to -60. OX
1
Retrofitability: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
The lower values of the range of energy consumption changes for HCFC-123 and HCFC-141b assume that the foams have been optimized
(e.g., by improving cell density, cell thickness, etc.) to provide the same energy efficiency.
* An additional substitute involves the manufacture of these foams using water to replace a portion of the HCFC as the blowing agent. It is
estimated that water can be used to replace approximately 30X of the substitute HCFC without resulting in a reduction in the insulating
capacity of the foam. Such a change in the formulation process reduces the replacement factor of the chemical substitute used.
-------
C-17
EXHIBIT C-17
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAM •• RIGID POLYURETHANE (OTHER REFRIGERATION APPLIANCES)
Original CFC: CFC-11
Substitutes:
Compound/B I end
CFC-11/H20
Thick Fiberglass Batts
HCFC-1232
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-123
(Increased Thickness)
HCFC-HIb2
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-Ulb
(Increased Thickness)
Vacuum Panels Foamed
with C02
Currently Strong Additional Replacement
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrofi lability Factor
X N 1.00
X N N/A
X N 1.153
X N 1.21
X N 0.853
X N 0.94
X N N/A
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
O.OX to +5. OX
+20. OX to +30. OX
O.OX to +7. OX
O.OX
O.OX to +10. OX
O.OX
-40. OX to -60. OX
Retrofilability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
- The lower values of the range of energy consumption changes for HCFC-123 and HCFC-HIb assume that the foams have been optimized
(e.g., by improving cell density, cell thickness, etc.) to provide the same energy efficiency.
3 An additional substitute involves the manufacture of these foams using water to replace a portion of the HCFC as the blowing agent. It is
estimated that water can be used to replace approximately 30X of the substitute HCFC without resulting in a reduction in the insulating
capacity of the foam. Such a change in the formulation process reduces the replacement factor of the chemical substitute used.
-------
C-18
EXHIBIT C-18
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAM -- RIGID POLYURETHANE (REFRIGERATED TRANSPORT)
Original CFC: CFC-11
Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
CFC-11/H20
Thick Fiberglass Batts
HCFC-1232
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-123
(Increased Thickness)
HCFC-Ulb2
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-H1b
(Increased Thickness)
Vacuum Panels Foamed
with O>2
Currently Strong Additional Replacement
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi I i ty Factor
X N 1 .00
X N N/A
X N 1.153
X N 1.21
X N 0.853
X N 0.94
X N N/A
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
O.OX to +5.0%
+20. OX to +30. OX
O.OX to +7. OX
O.OX
O.OX to +10. OX
O.OX
-40. OX to -60. OX
Retrofilability: 0 represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
The lower values of the range of energy consumption changes for HCFC-123 and HCFC-Klb assume that the foams have been optimized
(e.g.. by improving cell density, cell thickness, etc.) to provide the same energy efficiency.
An additional substitute involves the manufacture of these foams using water to replace a portion of the HCFC as the blowing agent. It is
estimated that water can be used to replace approximately 30X of the substitute HCFC without resulting in a reduction in the insulating
capacity of the foam. Such a change in the formulation process reduces the replacement factor of the chemical substitute used.
-------
C-19
EXHIBIT C-19
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAM -- RIGID POLYURETHANE (STRUCTURE INSULATION)
Original CFC: CFC-11
Substitutes:
Compound/BI end
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-123
(Increased Thickness)
HCFC-Klb2
(Same Thickness)
HCFC-1416
(Increased Thickness)
Shards with Optimized Foam
(HCFC-123) Cells
Additional
Currently Strong ~~-...~,.u.
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrofilability Factor Consumption with Substitute
Replacement
Changes in Energy
CFC-11/H20 (60X/40X) X
Thick Fiberglass Batts . X
HCFC-1232 X
N/A
N/A
N 1.153
O.OX
O.OX
O.OX to »7.0X
1.21
0.85J
0.94
1.0
O.OX
O.OX to +10.OX
O.OX
-1.0X
1
Retrofilability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
The lower values of the range of energy consumption changes for HCFC-123 and HCFC-U1b assume that the foams have been optimized
(e.g., by improving cell density, cell thickness, etc.) to provide the same energy efficiency.
3 An additional substitute involves the use of water to replace a portion of the HCFC substitute used as the blowing agent in the manufacture
of the foam. It is estimated that water can be used to replace approximately 15X of the HCFC substitute without resulting in a reduction of
the foam's insulating capacity. Such a change in the formulation process reduces the replacement factor of the chemical substitute used.
-------
C-20
EXHIBIT C-20
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAM -- RIGID POLYURETHANE (PACKAGING)
Original CFC: CFC-11
Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
CFC-11/H20
H20 Only (C02>
HCFC-123
HCFC-H16
EPS Headboard
Other Packaging Materials
Currently Strong A-rWitional Replacement
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrofi lability Factor
X N 1.00
X N 1.00
X N 1.15
X N 0.85
N N/A
N N/A
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1 RetrofStability: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-2
EXHIBIT C-21
APPLICABILITY Of POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAMS -- FLEXIBLE
Original CFC: CFC-11
Substitutes:
Currently Strong Additional
Compound/ Blend Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi I ity
CFC-11/H20 X N
H20 Only (C02) X N
HCFC-123 X N
HCFC-Klb X N
C02 Process/Header Foam X N
Engineered Plastic Cushioning X N
Latex Foams X N
Replacement
Factor
1.00
1.00
1.15
0.85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
RetrofitabiIity: D represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-22
EXHIBIT C-22
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAM -- RIGID NON-POLYURETHANE (INSULATION)
Original CFC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Compound/ B I end
HCFC-22
Thick Fiberglass Batts
HCFC-134a
HCFC-124
HCFC-H2b
HCFC-22/HCFC-H2b
Shards with Optimized Foam
(HFC-13Aa) Cells
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrofi lability
X N
X N
X N
N
X N
X N
X N
Replacement
Factor
1.00
N/A
O.BO
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.00
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
+20. OX to +3. OX
+10. OX
+X
+X
O.OX
-1.0X
1 Retrofilability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-23
EXHIBIT C-23
APPLICABILITY Of POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
FOAM -- RIGID MOM-POLYURETHANE (PACKAGING)
Original CFC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
HCFC-22 (Alt)
HCFC-U2b (Polyethylene.
Polypropylene. PVC)
HCFC-22/HCFC-H2b (All)
Product Substitutes (All)
HCFC-124 (All)
HCFC-1J4a (Polystyrene Sheet)
HCFC-22/Hydrocarbon
(Polystyrene)
COj Auxiliary Blowing Agent
(Polystyrene)
Hydrocarbon Blowing Agent
(Polystyrene)
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi I ity
X N
X N
X N
X N
X N
X N
X . N
X N
X N
Replacement
Factor
1.00
0.80
1.00
N/A
1.00
0.84
0.75
0.60
0.83
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
' RetrofitabiIity: 0 represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-24
EXHIBIT C-24
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
SOLVENT CLEANING -- COLD GLEAMING
Original CFC: CFC-113
Substitutes: '
Compound/B I end
CFC-113 Azeo tropes
Organic Solvents
Nethyl Chloroform
Aqueous Cleaning/Terpenes
HCFC-123
HCFC-HIb .
Currently Strong Additional . Replacement
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrofi lability Factor
X E,N 1.00
X E.M 1.00
X E,N 1.00
X E,N 1.00
X E,N 1.00
X E.N 1.00
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
N/A
! M/,A
M/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Retrofitability: D represents difficult retrofi.t, E represents easy retrofit, and N.indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-25
EXHIBIT C-25
APPLICABILITY Of POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
SOLVENT CLEANING -- VAPOR DECREASING
Original CFC: CFC-113
Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
CFC-113 Azeotropes
Methyl Chloroform
• Open Top
Conveyor i zed
Aqueous Cleaning/Terpenes
HCFC-123
HCFC-HIb
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof Stability1
X E.N
X E.N
X £,N
X E.N
X . E.N
X E.N
Replacement
Factor;
1.00
2.40
2.20
1.00
1.00
1.00
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
N/A
N/A
N/A
-15. OX
N/A
N/A
1
Retrofilability: D represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
-------
C-26
EXHIBIT C-26
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
STERILIZATION
Original CFC: CFC-12 -
r • , , . . " ' -
Substitutes:
•<••••- . " Currently Strong .
Compound/Blend Available Candidate(s)
90X C02/10X EO Blend X
Nitrogen Purge. Ethylene Oxide X
HFC-134a/EO Blend X
HCFC-A2
HCFC-B2 , ,
Additional
Possibi 1 i t ies Retrof i tabi I i ty
E.N
E,N
E.N
E.N
.-.-•• ••:.?•" • ;•
Replacement
Factor
0.94
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Retrofliability: 0 represents difficult retrofit, E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
Proprietary compounds/mixtures.
-------
C-27
EXHIBIT C-27
APPLICABILITY OF POTENTIAL CHEMICAL SUBSTITUTES
AEROSOLS
Original CFC: CFC-12
Substitutes:
Compound/Blend
Hydrocarbons/Pumps/
HCFC-22
HCFC-123
HCFC-22/HCFC-142b
HCFC-22/HCFC-152a
HCFC-H1b
HCFC-H2b
HFC-134a
HFC-152a
Other mixtures and compounds
Currently Strong Additional
Available Candidate(s) Possibilities Retrof itabi lity
X N
XX N
N
X N
X N
N
X N
N
X N
X N
Replacement
Factor
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Changes in Energy
Consumption with Substitute
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1 Retrofitability: D represents difficult retrofit. E represents easy retrofit, and N indicates that the compound/blend is applicable
to new equipment.
A variety of mixtures and other compounds might also work.
-------
APPENDIX D
METHODS USED TO DEVELOP
ESTIMATES OF EMISSIONS OF ENERGY-RELATED GREENHOUSE GASES
AND CHANGES IN ENERGY COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREMENTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FOR THE TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS AND SUBSTITUTION SCENARIOS
-------
APPENDIX D
This appendix describes the approach used to estimate incremental
emissions of energy-related greenhouse gases for the trade-off analysis in
Chapter 3 and the four substitution scenarios in Chapter 4 of this report.
Estimates are developed for four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, carbon
monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and methane) and two other air pollutants (sulfur
dioxide and particulate emissions). Emission estimates are developed for four
regions: the United States, Western industrialized countries (WIC),
centrally planned economies (CPEs) not including China, and the rest of the
world (ROW). Estimates of the energy-related impacts associated with
substitutes for CFCs are developed only for the period 1985 to 2075.
CFCs are used in energy consuming appliances such as refrigerators and
air conditioners, and in the production of energy conservation materials such
as foam insulation. Potential substitutes (HCFCs and HFCs, as well as
alternative technologies) are not expected to have the same performance
characteristics as CFCs and CFC-based technologies, and their use may change
the energy efficiency of appliances and insulation materials. Reductions in
energy efficiency could lead to increased energy use, higher levels of energy-
related greenhouse gas emissions, and global warming. Improvements in energy
efficiency could lead to opposite effects.
1. ESTIMATION APPROACH
The general approach used to estimate incremental energy use and energy-
related greenhouse gas emissions was the same for the four substitution
scenarios in Chapter 3 and the trade-off analysis in Chapter 4. This approach
is summarized below:
(1) Total energy use in CFC-related end uses is estimated in
British thermal units (Btu's) assuming no controls on CFC
use;
(2) Total increases or decreases in energy use are estimated
for each end use based on assessments of relative energy
efficiencies of substitutes (i.e., replacement of CFCs
with HCFCs or HFCs, or replacement of CFC-blown insulation
with fiberglass or vacuum panel insulation);
(3) Total energy use in Btu's is distributed among the various
sources of energy (i.e., electricity, motor gasoline,
diesel fuel, natural gas, and home heating oil); and
(4) Emissions of greenhouse gases are estimated based on the
emission factors associated with each of these energy
sources in the four regions of the world.
-------
D-2
1.1. Energy Use Assuming No Controls on CFC Use
The first step in the energy analysis was to forecast annual energy
consumption in CFC-using end use areas assuming there are no controls on CFC
use. Estimates were developed in Btu's for the period 1985 through 2075 for
the end use areas evaluated in each of the four geographical regions defined
for this report. To develop these forecasts, an analysis of U.S. energy use
in the energy-related end use areas was performed. The results for the U.S.
were then extrapolated to estimate worldwide energy consumption in the end
uses evaluated. U.S. data were used because information on the capital stock
and energy efficiency in non-U.S. economies is limited.
In Chapter 3, this energy analysis is limited to the end uses listed in
Exhibit D-l in this appendix, because some of the 20 CFC end-use areas
considered in the substitution scenarios do not consume energy. The aerosols,
cold cleaning, and flexible and packaging foam end uses are examples of the
end uses that do not consume energy. The energy analysis for the substitution
scenarios, therefore, is limited to end uses which consume energy (e.g.,
refrigeration and foam insulation end uses). In Chapter 4 the energy impacts
are estimated for each of the following end uses: mobile air conditioning,
residential refrigeration, rigid polyurethane foam (refrigeration), retail
food storage, chillers, process refrigeration, and rigid polyurethane foam
(insulation).
Baseline energy consumption for each end use was estimated by first
grouping the end uses into three different categories. This included (1)
refrigeration application end uses, (2) foam application end uses
corresponding to the refrigeration end uses that use foam (i.e., rigid
polyurethane foam refrigeration applications), and (3) rigid and non-rigid
polyurethane foam insulation end uses. For the first end use category
baseline energy for the U.S. was developed based on energy use estimates per
unit of end use capital stock1. This per unit estimate was then multiplied by
estimates of total capital stock in that end use in each of the years from
1985 to 2075 to derive a time series of baseline energy use in the U.S2.
Baseline energy data for this end use category for the remaining three
regions of the world was estimated by dividing the emissions of the CFCs used
in each end use by the baseline energy to obtain a time series of energy-
emission factors for the end use. This time series of energy emission factors
1 The derivation of the energy use for each end use area is documented in
U.S. EPA, Documentation of Engineering and Cost Data used in the Vintaeine
Analysis. Draft Report, February 23, 1989 and Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Energy Impact of Chlorofluorocarbon Alternatives. June 2, 1988.
2 Reliable information on projected stock data is available to year 2010
and is documented in U.S. EPA, Documentation of Engineering and Cost Data used
in the Vintagine Analysis. Draft Report, February 23, 1989. To estimate
baseline energy consumption to year 2075 the stock data was extrapolated using
growth rates estimates for each end use.
-------
D-3
EXHIBIT D-l
ENERGY CONSUMING END USES
Mobile Air Conditioners
Residential Refrigeration
Chiller
Process Refrigeration
Cold Storage Warehouses
Retail Food Storage
Other Refrigeration Appliances
Refrigerated Transport
Rigid Polyurethane Foam
(Residential Refrigeration)
Rigid Polyurethane Foam
(Other Refrigeration Appliances)
Rigid Polyurethane Foam
(Refrigerated Transport)
Rigid Polyurethane Foam
(Structure Insulation)
Rigid Non-Polyurethane Foam
(Structure Insulation)
Vapor Degreasing
-------
.D-4
was then multiplied by the CFC emission estimates for the end use in the three
regions of the world to obtain the baseline energy3.
Baseline energy estimates for the four regions of the world for the
second category of end uses were estimated by assuming them to be similar to
the first category (i.e., the amount of energy consumed by the residential
refrigeration end use is the same as that consumed by rigid polyurethane foam
refrigeration end use). This is based on the assumption that the foam used in
refrigeration application end use is an integral part of the end use, and
therefore, the energy consumption has to be considered as an overall estimate
as opposed to separate estimates for foam and fluid*.
The approach used to develop baseline energy consumption estimates for
the rigid polyurethane foam and rigid non-polyurethane foam insulation end
uses (third category) is different from that used above, because energy use in
this end-use area is" not related directly to capital stock. This alternative
approach can be summarized as follows:
(1) Estimates of energy savings per metric ton of CFC foam
insulation were derived from work performed by the Oak
Ridge National Laboratories.5 This estimate was based on
the energy savings associated with CFC-blown rigid foams
relative to a fiberglass insulation of the same thickness.
(2) Total energy savings associated with CFC insulation'
materials were then calculated by multiplying the esti-
mates of energy savings per ton developed in step 1 by the
3 The assumption that the ratio of energy use per CFC emissions is
constant throughout the world implies that the energy efficiency of
refrigerators in the U.S., for example, is the same as the energy efficiency
of refrigerators in Europe, China, and the U.S.S.R. This simplification is
necessary because of the general lack of data on energy efficiency and stock
of appliances throughout the world.
* The energy impacts associated with the use of substitutes for the
refrigeration foam application end uses and their counterpart refrigeration
application end uses are not additive. For example, in the case of the
residential refrigeration and rigid polyurethane foam end uses, if the
substitute used to replace CFC-12 working fluid results in a 10 percent
increase in energy usage and the substitute used to replace the foam also
results in a 10 percent increase in energy usage, the overall increase in
energy consumption of the residential refrigeration unit is not necessarily 20
percent.
5 Oak Ridge National Laboratories, op. cit., pp 56-71.
-------
D-5
total stock of CFC foam insulation in 1985 as reported in
the RIA.6
(3) Energy savings per unit of CFC emission were then
calculated by dividing the total energy savings developed
in step 2 by estimated CFC emissions from rigid foam
insulation in 1985.
(4) The energy savings per unit of CFC emission factor was then
multiplied by estimates of CFC emissions in the four regions of the
world to obtain the baseline energy data for the rigid and non-rigid
polyurethane foam insulation end uses.
1.2. Estimating Changes in Energy Use For the Trade-off Analysis and
Substitution Scenarios
For the trade-off analysis in Chapter 4, estimates of the changes in CFC-
related energy use were developed for each substitute evaluated in each of
seven end use areas. The estimates for each substitute were developed for
each end use based on assumptions about the percent change in energy use
associated with the substitute. The assumptions about changes in energy use
associated with each substitute are presented in Chapter 4 of this report.
The energy estimates all are incremental to the baseline energy use estimated
for the end use. Estimates of the energy implications for each substitute in
each end use, therefore, are a function of:
(1) Baseline energy use in the end use area; and
(2) The estimated percentage change in global energy use associated with
use of the substitute in the end use area.
Changes in CFC related energy use were estimated for each of the
substitution scenarios in Chapter 3 based on assumptions about the percent
change in energy use for each end-use category resulting from the substitution
of HCFCs, HFCs or other substitutes for CFCs. For each scenario, estimates of
the percentage changes in energy consumption by end-use category were
obtained.7 The assumptions used in this analysis to represent the percent
change in energy use are presented in Chapter 3. The estimates of the energy
impacts under each scenario are all measured as incremental to the baseline.
Estimates of total annual changes in energy use under each substitution
scenario were estimated as a function of:
6 Radian Corporation, Regulatory Impact Analysis: Protection of
Stratospheric Ozone. Vol. Ill, 1988, p. 3.1.1-A7.
7 Estimates for percent energy change were based on information obtained
from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Energy-Use Impact of Chlorofluorocarbon
Alternatives. June 2, 1988 and from discussions with industrial contacts.
-------
D-6
(1) baseline global energy use in all end uses;
(2) the cumulative percent change in global energy use developed taking
into account the energy use changes defined for each end use; and
(3) the portion of total CFC use in each end use estimated to be
replaced by HCFC, HFC, and other substitutes that have implications
for energy consumption.
2. FUEL SHARES FOR EACH END-USE CATEGORY
The aggregate estimates of incremental energy consumption by end-use area
developed using the methods above are expressed in terms of Btu's. To
estimate the emissions of greenhouse gases associated with changes in energy
demand, the specific energy sources that will provide this incremental energy
must be defined. Specific energy sources have different emissions of
greenhouse gases; to develop accurate estimates of the indirect greenhouse
effect under each scenario, therefore, it is important that energy demand be
correctly categorized. For this analysis, energy demand is distributed among
the following fuel types:
• Electricity;
• Motor gasoline;
• Diesel fuel;
• Natural gas; and
• Home heating oil.
In most of the end uses considered in this energy analysis, the
incremental energy consumed under the substitution scenarios is expected to
come from the same sources of energy used to fuel the end uses when CFCs are
used. For example, additional energy required for mobile air conditioners is
assumed to be supplied by diesel and gasoline in proportion to their use in
current fleets of vehicles. This assumption is based on the premise that all
vehicles will be retrofitted during servicing to eliminate CFC use.
In a few cases, however, there are data to support the assumption that
the incremental amounts of energy expected to be used under the substitution
scenarios could be provided from a different type of fuel than currently is
used. In the insulation end uses, for example, changes in building insulation
materials requirements are assumed not to affect the current stock of
buildings because replacement would be too costly. Instead, alternative
insulation is assumed to be used only in new buildings which could use fuel
types different from those used currently in buildings. The following
sections present the fuel share assumptions applied in this analysis for each
of the four regions of the world.
2.1. Fuel Shares by End Use in the United States
Fuel shares for the U.S. are summarized in Exhibit D-2 for selected end-
use categories. For example, one hundred percent of the energy consumption in
-------
D-7
EXHIBIT D-2
FUEL SHARES FOR U.S. CFC-RE1ATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION -- 2000*
Home
Motor Diesel Natural Heating
End-Use Category Electricity** Gasoline Oil Gas Oil**
Mobile Air Conditioners
Residential
Refrigeration 100
Process Refrigeration 100
Cold Storage Warehouses 100
Chillers 100
Retail Food Storage 100
Other Refrigeration
Appliances 100
Refrigerated Transport
Rigid Polyurethane Foam
(Refrigeration) 100
(Other Appliances) 100
(Refrigerated Transport)
(Insulation) 46
Rigid Non-Polyurethane
Foam (Insulation) 46
96
16
16
84
84
32
32
22
22
* CFC-related energy use is allocated year-by-year for each category to one
of five types of fuels.
** Further differentiated by sector for costing purposes.
-------
D-8
the chillers category is allocated to electricity, whereas energy consumption
in the mobile air conditioners end use is allocated to both gasoline (96
percent) and diesel fuel oil (4 percent). Each of the end-use areas are
described briefly below.
Automobile and Light-Duty Truck Air Conditioning (Mobile Air
Conditioners)
Oil products are by far the primary fuel used by automobiles and light
duty trucks, .and it is generally viewed as unlikely that other fuels (such as
electricity or natural gas) will significantly penetrate the transportation
sector over the forecast period.
Because different emissions are associated with gasoline- and diesel-
fueled vehicles, oil consumption is disaggregated into gasoline and diesel
vehicle shares. Estimated fuel consumption shares for distillate and motor
gasoline over the period 1990 to 2010 are based on forecasts by Saricks and
Vyas (1986) of "vehicle miles traveled."8
Refrigerated Transport
o
Heavy duty trucks are responsible for most refrigerated transport in the
United States. All heavy duty trucks currently consume oil and are expected
to continue to do so throughout the forecast period. The percentage shares of
gasoline and diesel-powered trucks are estimated based on the vehicle miles
traveled forecast by Saricks and Vyas (1986).
Rigid Foam Insulation
Rigid foam insulation is installed in the walls and roofs of residential
and commercial buildings. CFCs currently are used as a blowing agent in the
production of this foam. Use of other materials for insulation, such as
expanded polystyrene beadboard, may lead to an increase in energy use for
space heating and cooling. As described earlier, because rigid foam
insulating materials are contained within the walls of buildings, removing the
CFCs from existing buildings would be difficult and expensive. The estimates
of energy source shares for this end-use area, therefore, reflects only new
(or "incremental") buildings in any particular year.
Information provided by the Gas Research Institute9 is the principal
source used to estimate fuel shares in this end-use area. The following
8 A compilation of Saricks and Vyas' vehicle miles traveled forecast was
included in a technical memorandum from L.A. Mahoney and L.R. Chinkin of SAI
to C.S. Burton of SAI regarding "projecting the effects of a new (0.4 gram/
mile) NOX standard upon on-road mobile NOx emissions for the 48 states," March
2, 1988.
9 Gas Research Institute, Baseline Projection Data Book: 1988 GRI
Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010. 1988.
-------
D-9
assumptions were made to estimate the fuel shares for the residential and
commercial sector's aggregate heating and cooling needs for new buildings:
• Efficiency - Heating new residential homes was assumed to
require 50 percent less energy than heating the average
existing home, although this may be conservative as some
evidence indicates that the most efficient new homes are
achieving a 70 percent reduction.10 New home energy use
for cooling was assumed to be the same in new and existing
homes. New commercial buildings were assumed to be five
percent more efficient in both cooling and heating than
existing buildings.
• Saturation - 50 percent of new homes were assumed to be
cooled, which is reflective of current U.S. trends.
Ninety percent of new commercial square footage was
assumed to be cooled, 25 percent of new commercial
buildings were assumed to replace older cooled buildings.
The remaining seventy-five percent of new cooled
commercial buildings were assumed to replace non-cooled
buildings.
• Fuel Types - All cooling was assumed to be powered by
electricity. Heating was assumed to be provided by
natural gas, home heating oil, and electricity.
Rigid Polyurethane Foam (Refrigeration)
Electricity is the sole energy source used for refrigeration. For this
analysis, electricity use is assumed to be used solely among the residential
sector.
Electricity-Only End-Use Categories
In a number of CFG end-use categories, electricity is the only fuel used.
The electricity-only categories include:
Cold Storage
Retail Refrigeration
Industrial Process Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
Household Refrigerated Appliances
Solvent Cleaning
Sterilization
10 U.S. EPA, OPPE, Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate. Draft
Executive Summary, page 62.
-------
D-10
• Chillers11
• Other Refrigeration Appliances
2.2. Fuel Shares for Non-U.S. Regions
The following section documents the method used to estimate fuel shares
for the non-U.S. regions. The discussion focuses on those instances in which
foreign shares differ from those used for the U.S. are presented below. The
fuel shares for the other three regions of the world are presented in Exhibit
D-3.
Mobile Air Conditioners
Estimates of mobile air conditioner fuel shares for the WIC region are
based on the split of diesel and gasoline fuel used for road transportation as
reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA).12 The IEA data show that
the non-U.S. industrialized countries consume a considerably higher proportion
of diesel fuel for road transport than is used in the U.S. This relationship
also applies to the refrigerated transport sector.
The same fuel shares developed for mobile air conditioners and
refrigerated transport in WICs are assumed to apply to the centrally planned
economies and the rest of the world regions. This assumption is reasonable
because these regions also use more diesel fuel than does the U.S.
Rigid Polvurethane and Non-Polvurethane Foam (Insulation)
The 1985 fuel shares for these end-use categories for the WIC region are
based on data on residential and commercial fuel use as reported by the
International Energy Agency.13 WIC residential consumers currently use less
natural gas than consumers in the U.S. The use of natural gas and electricity
or residential heating and cooling in Europe, however, is expected to increase
in the future. The fuel shares developed here reflect that assumption.
11 Chillers are used for cooling large offices and other commercial
buildings, and in petroleum refineries in certain cryogenic processes
associated with gas separation. It is assumed that chillers primarily consume
electricity. Based on an estimate of the proportion of commercial buildings
(such as office buildings) versus industrial installations (such as petroleum
refineries), the fuel consumption shares in this category are assumed to be
split between the commercial sector (99 percent) and the industrial sector (1
percent).
12 International Energy Agency, Energy Statistics: 1985-1986. (1988).
13 Ibid.
-------
D-ll
EXHIBIT D-3
FUEL SHARES FOR NON-US CFC-RE1ATED ENERGY CONSUMPTION -- 2000*
Home
Motor Diesel Natural Heating
End-Use Category Electricity** Gasoline Oil Gas Oil**
Mobile Air Conditioners
Residential
Refrigeration 100
Process Refrigeration 100
Cold Storage Warehouses 100
Chillers 100
Retail Food Storage 100
Other Refrigeration
Appliances 100
Refrigerated Transport
Rigid Polyurethane Foam
(Refrigeration) 100
(Other Appliances) 100
(Refrigerated Transport)
(Insulation) WIC/CPE 24
ROW 12
Rigid Non-Polyurethane
Foam Insulation (WIC/CPE) 24
(ROW) 12
80
20
16
84
16
84
40
29
40
29
36
59
36
59
* CFC-related energy use is allocated year-by-year for each category to one
of five types of fuels.
** Further differentiated by sector for costing purposes.
-------
D-12
No data are available on the use of energy by fuel type for residential
and commercial heating and cooling for the remaining two regions. For the ROW
region, distillate fuel oil is assumed to account for a higher proportion of
the fuel used for residential heating and cooling than in the WIG countries.
The fuel shares for natural gas and electricity, however, are assumed to
increase slightly over time at the expense of the distillate fuel oil share.
The fuel shares for the CPE region reflect the assumption that the fuel shares
for the U.S.S.R. are similar to those in western Europe.
3. EMISSIONS
This section describes the process used to estimate energy-related
greenhouse gas emissions associated with the substitution of HCFCs, MFCs, or
other substitutes for CFCs in the trade-off analysis and the substitution
scenarios. These emission estimates are developed using changes in energy
consumption by fuel type estimated above, and emission factors that represent
the amount of emission per incremental unit of energy use.
Emission factors were developed to reflect the following:
• Types of Energy - Factors are developed for the seven
types of energy used by CFC end-uses: electricity, motor
gasoline, diesel, commercial use of natural gas and
heating oil, and residential use of natural gas and
heating oil.
• Types of Emission - For each of the seven fuel types,
factors are developed for each of six types of emissions:
carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, methane,
sulfur dioxide, and total suspended particulates (TSP).
• Regions - Separate sets of factors were developed for the
four geographical regions analyzed in this report.
• Time - Emission factors change over time through 2010 but
remain constant at 2010 levels thereafter, reflecting the
uncertainty and lack of attention focused on post-2010
forecasts. Greater attention is focused on pre-2010
trends because of the greater availability of relevant
information and energy market perspectives. Further,
post-2010 trends are more likely to be affected by new
technologies and other developments that are especially
difficult to predict.
The remainder of this subsection is divided into three parts. The first
section discusses electricity emission factors. The second section describes
motor gasoline and diesel emission factors for mobile sources. Finally, the
third section discusses heating oil and natural gas factors for the commercial
and residential sectors.
-------
D-13
Electricity
Electricity is an important energy source for CFC-using appliances.
Further, the electricity industry accounts for significant shares of total
U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants associated with fossil
fuel combustion.
The development of electricity emission factors involved three steps.
The first was to determine the types or mix of powerplants that would supply
the additional amount of power required due to CFG substitution. The second
was to determine the emissions characteristics of the powerplants. The third
step was to multiply the emission rate of a particular type of powerplant by
its share in the generating mix, or, in other words, the fraction of
electricity supplied by that type of powerplant to develop a weighted average
emission rate (in units of pollution per unit of electricity delivered).
The mix of powerplants meeting future power demands can differ
substantially from the current average mix. In the near team, power demand
will be met by existing powerplants with excess capacity. Some types of
powerplants, in particular nuclear and hydroelectric plants, are already fully
utilized, and hence, future demand will be met by less utilized fossil-fueled
powerplants. Thus, the future mix of plants supplying incremental amounts of
energy above current forecast levels is assumed not to include nuclear and
hydroelectric powerplants. Over time, excess existing capacity will become
exhausted and new powerplants will be required. Again, the mix of new
powerplants may differ substantially from the existing mix. For example, few
nuclear powerplants are expected to be built in the U.S. over the next two
decades, whereas nearly 20 percent of U.S. electricity currently is produced
by nuclear plants.
3.1. U.S. Emission Rates
For the United States, powerplant mix assessments were made using a
linear programming optimization approach to estimate existing powerplant
utilization and forecast new powerplant construction. The model used contains
detailed information about all major U.S. powerplants, fuel market conditions,
and most key operating constraints. The assumptions about electricity sales
growth rates, future oil and gas market conditions and other factors applied
in this estimation process are documented elsewhere.14 Using this model,
power demand in 1990 is forecast to be met by existing cc.il, oil and natural
gas burning powerplants (see Exhibit D-4). Coal powerplants account for
60 percent of energy production, natural gas powerplants represent 35 percent
and oil powerplants represent 5 percent. In the longer term, power
requirements are met by the construction of new powerplants and reduced
reliance on coal (See Exhibit D-5).
u The assumptions applied in this modeling exercise are detailed in ICF,
CFC-Phase-Out Analysis: Energy Scenarios. February 1989.
-------
D-14
EXHIBIT D-4
1990 ELECTRIC GENERATING NIXES
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro Other
U.S.
60
5
35
.
-
100
WIG
38
25
37
.
-
100
CPE
60
15
25
.
-
100
ROW
40
15
45
.
--
100
Source: IGF forecasts for U.S.; non-U.S.
forecast from DOE Energy Forecasts
adjusted by IGF.
EXHIBIT D-5
2005 ELECTRIC GENERATING MIXES
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro Other
U.S.
47
15
38
-
-
100
WIC
54
-
20
7
_Ii
100
CPE
55
.
17
5
_21
100
ROW
18
5
36
5
_3£
100
Source: IGF forecasts for U.S.; non-U.S.
forecast from DOE Energy Forecasts
adjusted by IGF.
-------
D-15
Information on the emissions characteristics of U.S. powerplants were
generated using the,, same model that projects powerplant utilization. That
model simultaneously forecasts both the incremental fuel mix expected to be
used in the future and the emission rates associated with that mix. The model
forecasts emissions of: sulfur dioxides, nitrogen oxides and total suspended
particulates. Emission factors for carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon
monoxide were estimated separately for each fuel and weighted by the
generating mix shares. For example, the carbon dioxide emission rate for coal
was multiplied by the share of coal in the mix (See Exhibit D-6).
Emission rates for carbon dioxide were provided by Radian.15 Carbon
dioxide rates for coal-fired power plants are about forty percent higher than
oil-fired plants and more than twice as high as natural gas based plants.
Emission rates for carbon monoxide were also supplied by Radian, but are very
low for all fuels.
Methane emission rates were developed for this study but are highly
uncertain. Electricity production can cause methane emissions in three ways:
(1) incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, (2) methane releases during the
production and delivery of natural gas to utilities, and (3) methane emissions
during coal mining when methane gases trapped in coal seams are released.
Methane production during combustion is very small and is assumed here to be
negligible. Natural gas related emissions were assumed to be zero because of
the lack of data. Coal mining emissions were estimated based on a assumption
that 300 cubic feet of methane is released per ton of coal mined.16 This
estimate is highly uncertain because it is based on data from only one type of
mine (underground mines). Additional study of this issues is strongly
recommended.
3.2. Non-U.S. Emissions
For the other regions of the world, generating mix estimates were based
on forecasts developed by the Department of Energy17 adjusted based on other
data sources. These estimates were not based on detailed modeling because a
modeling framework such as that used in developing U.S. estimates was not
readily available. Hence, the non-U.S. mix estimates are more uncertain.
15 Radian Corporation, Emissions and Cost Estimates for Globally
Significant Anthropogenic Combustion Sources of NOX. N;0. CH^. CO. and CO;,
Draft, December 1987.
16 R.H. Grau III, Bureau of Mines, "An Overview of Methane Liberations
from U.S. Coal Mines in the Last 15 Years", Third U.S. Mine ventilation
symposium, October 12-14, 1987.
17 DOE, International Energy Outlook 1987. 1988.
-------
D-16
EXHIBIT D-6
1990 AVERAGE ELECTRIC EMISSION RATES
(lbs./MMBtua output)
Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Nitrogen Oxide
Particulates
Sulfur Dioxide
Methane
U.S.
545
0.
1.
0.
2.
0.
1
6
3
5
8
WIC
573
0.
0.
0.
1.
0.
CPE
1
9
3
3
7
642
0
2
2
3
1
.1
.0
.8
.0
.1
ROW
563
0.
1.
1.
6.
0.
1
7
9
3
8
a "MMBtu" represents million British thermal units.
-------
D-17
Emission race estimates for carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide
were developed using the same sources used for the U.S. emissions estimates
for these compounds. The emissions rates for nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide,
and total suspended particulates were developed as follows:
• Nitrogen Oxides - Powerplant emissions of NOX are
generally controlled in Western Industrialized Countries,
and in some cases, such as Japan and West Germany, the
controls are tighter than in the United States. NOX
emission limits were estimated for key countries in WIC
from several sources and an average rate weighted by each
country's fuel use was then calculated. NOX rates are
assumed to be uncontrolled in CPE and ROW regions.18
• Sulfur Dioxides - Sulfur dioxide emissions are primarily a
function of the sulfur content of fuels, and in some
cases, the level of technological emission controls
employed. Emission rates for S02 are based on estimates
of the regional differences in the sulfur contents of
fuels, and in the case of WIC, levels of control. Non-WIC
rates are assumed to be uncontrolled.19
• TSP - In the U.S., particulate emissions from powerplants
are very tightly controlled. WIC emission limits are
assumed to be as tight as U.S. standards. In other
regions, rates were assumed to be approximately equal to
rates in the U;S. prior to the Clean Air Act. This
estimate was based in part on estimates of uncontrolled
emissions from EPA's AP-42 emission rate document.20
Mobile Sources
Mobile sources consume large amounts of oil products and are important
sources of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions.
Estimates of U.S. mobile source emission rates are from several sources. The
NOX forecasts developed by SAI, Inc. for EPA were used.21 The principal
carbon monoxide source was EPA's compilation of emission factors known as the
18 EPA, Briefing on International Comparison of Air Pollution Control by
EPA's OPPE and Office of International Activities. August, 5 1988. IEA,
Electricity in IEA Countries - Issues and Outlook. 1985.
19 World Energy Conference, "1986 Survey of Energy Resources," 1987.
CIA, "USSR Energy Atlas," 1985. Selected Issues of Coal Week International.
20 EPA, EPA AP-42 Factors: Air Pollution Emission Factors Volume I:
Stationary Point and Area Sources: October 1986.
21ICF, "NOX Emission Estimates and Forecasts 1980-2010," Memorandum from
B. Braine and L. Nixon to P. Stolpman, February 8, 1988.
-------
D-18
AP-42 factors.22 The on-going reductions in carbon monoxide and nitrogen
oxide emissions in the U.S. due to implementation of existing regulations were
factored into the development of these estimates.
Carbon dioxide emission rates increase as carbon monoxide is controlled
and converted to carbon dioxide. Thus, the overall amount of carbon emissions
is constant. Carbon dioxide rates are based on Radian's estimates adjusted so
the level of carbon emissions, as represented by the sum of carbon dioxide and
carbon monoxide, is constant.
Sulfur dioxide estimates are based on sulfur content assumptions for
diesel and gasoline. The sulfur content of gasoline is very low and assumed
here to be zero, whereas the sulfur content of diesel fuel was assumed to be
0.25 percent.
TSP estimates were made without differentiating between diesel and
gasoline. This may overestimate gasoline emissions and underestimate diesel
emissions, but the size of any resulting error should be small because overall
mobile source TSP emission levels are low. Estimates were based on EPA's
National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates.
Radian estimates were used for methane emissions associated with
combustion which Radian estimates to be very low.23
NOX and CO emission rate estimates for Western Industrialized Countries
were developed by comparing control levels in key countries and calculating a
weighted average based on fuel use. The source of data used to assess the
control levels in European and other large countries is the same as for the
electricity sector. Emissions in other regions were assumed to be
uncontrolled (See Figure D-l).
Commercial and Residential
Commercial and residential oil and gas emission rates are from Radian and
are assumed to be constant worldwide. The principal exception relates to
sulfur dioxide emission rates for non-U.S. regions, which are assumed to be
higher for oil than in the U.S. reflecting less stringent environmental
restrictions in these regions, and hence, higher sulfur contents in heating
oils.
22 EPA, AP-42 Factors: Air Pollution Emission Factors Volume II: MobiL
Sources. September 1985.
23 Radian, op cit.
-------
Figure D-1
Average Gasoline Vehicle Emission Rates
- 2000
I-
ffi
30
25 -
£ 20
0
o.
(0
.£>
15
10 -
-
—
0.6 1-1 0.9 1-3
........................... I J |-.;-:--x::y::::-:;:;:-::.:;;>:| fc^-:- v^:^v- j
U.S. WIC Others Others 17
Adjusted
NOx
4.3
U.S.
8.7
WIC
CO
(
24.4
Others
1/ Most NOx emissions standards are expressed In grams/mile driven. Vehicles In Other Countries (CPEs, ROW) generate more NOx
per mile than WIC vehicles, but because their fuel milage Is low, they generate less on a per gallon and per Btu basis.
The adjusted rate assumes Other Countries have the same averagefuel efficiency as WIC vehicles. A similar adjustment would
Increase the CO rate to 35.
-------
D-20
4. METHODS USED TO ESTIMATE ENERGY COSTS FOR THE SUBSTITUTION SCENARIOS IN
CHAPTER 3
The cost to the United States of increased energy use associated with
HCFC substitution was calculated for each substitution scenario in Chapter 3by
multiplying the change in energy use by projected energy prices. Energy price
projections were developed as part of an integrated U.S. energy market
assessment. Because oil prices are determined in an international market,
additional but less detailed analysis was also conducted on the international
supply and demand for crude oil. Within the context of this integrated energy
market analysis, the approach used to estimate prices for each fuel type can
be summarized as follows:
• Electricity - Prices were estimated based on adjusted
projections from the Energy Information Administration.
• Natural gas - Prices were estimated based on the supply
and demand analysis of the U.S. natural gas market.
• Residential heating oil, motor gasoline, and diesel fuel -
Prices were projected as a function of the estimated crude
oil prices and the long-run refinery costs of production.
Exhibit D-7 demonstrates that the energy price estimates developed for
this analysis are in the middle of the range of recent energy price
projections made by private sector firms as well as other federal agencies.
International Energy Costs: Developing precise estimates of energy costs
for the other regions included in this analysis is difficult because the
regions are large and include nations with very diverse energy resources and
demand structures. In addition, end-use energy prices in other regions may be
poor indicators of actual real resource costs. For example, gasoline prices
in many European countries include a large tax component.2* In addition, many
developing countries subsidize energy consumption by setting price levels
below the real cost of supply.
For this analysis, U.S. energy prices projections were also used as a
proxy for energy costs in other regions (for additional details see Attachment
A-l). U.S. oil prices are reasonable estimates of oil costs in other regions
because they are determined in the international oil market. Oil price
differences among regions primarily reflect transportation cost differentials.
Other fuel prices are linked to the international oil price because suppliers
of the other fuels such as coal and natural gas must compete with oil products
24 Taxes are typically excluded from any measure of the real resource
cost of energy consumption because they represent transfers from the consumers
to the government and not actual costs incurred by society related to energy
use. On the other hand, some analysts may claim that these energy taxes
should be included because they represent the real cost of energy to society
in terms of increased energy vulnerability and environmental costs.
-------
D-21
EXHIBIT D-7
OVERVIEW OF ENERGY PRICE FORECASTS
Range of Estimates
Price Estimates
Used in this Analysis
2000 World Oil Prices
(1988 $/billion barrels)
2000 Natural Gas Wellhead Price
($/MMBtu)
2000 Average Electricity Price
(C/kilowatt hour)
$17-$42
(ICF-EIA High Oil)
$2.60-$5.70
(AGA-DOE NEPP)
$0.056-$0.08
(DRI-EPA/WRI)
$29
$ 3.40
$ 0.067
Sources:
AGA -
DOE NEPP -
DRI -
EPA/WRI -
EIA -
American Gas Association, TERA Analysis 88-1, January 15, 1988,
Table 1, p. iii.
U.S. DOE, Natural Energy Policy Plan, Long Range Energy
Projections to 2010. DOE/PE-0082, July 1988, High U.S. and World
Economic Growth Scenario, Table 4-6, p. 4-14.
Data Resources, Inc., Energy Review (Lexington, MA, Winter 1987-
88), as referenced in EIA's 1987 Annual Energy Outlook. DOE/EIA-
0383 (87).
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency/World Resources Institute
"Rapidly Changing World, No Policy" scenario developed for
forthcoming report to Congress on stabilizing greenhouse warming.
U.S. DOE's Energy Information Administration, 1987 Annual Energy
Outlook. Appendix C: High World Oil Price/Low Growth Case
Forecasts.
-------
D-22
for the key industrial and electric utility segments of the energy market.
Consequently, where they are determined by free market competition, long-run
energy prices in other regions tend to change over time in line with U.S.
energy prices.
-------
D-23
ATTACHMENT D-L
WORLD ENERGY COSTS
-------
Year
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
t
Res
22.61
20.97
20.41
20.41
20.41
20.41
20.39
20.36
20.33
20.31
20.28
20.44
20.60
20.77
20.93
21.10
21.27
21.44
21.61
21.78
21.95
22.13
22.30
22.48
22.66
22.84
lecincii)
Comwer
21.67
20.19
19.19
19.30
19.42
19.53
19.47
19.42
19.36
19.30
19.24
19.39
19.55
19.71
19.87
20.03
20.19
20.35
20.51
20.68
20.84
21.01
21.18
21.35
21.52
21.69
Indus
14.97
13.84
12.90
12.88
12.87
12.85
12.81
12.77
12.73
12.69
12.65
12.80
12.95
13.10
13.25
13.41
13.57
13.73
13.89
14.06
14.22
14.39
14.56
14.73
14.91
15.08
World
Prices I/
(l9B5$/mmBtu)
3/
-- Natural Gas --
Res Cornier
5.88
5.50
5.08
5.22
5.31
5.49
5.58
5.75
5.89
6.04
6.20
6.29
6.38
6.48
6.58
6.68
6.74
6.80
6.86
6.93
6.99
.05
.13
.20
.26
.34
5.28
.80
.37
.52
.60
.78
.87
5.05
5.19
5.33
5.49
5.58
5.67
5.77
5.87
S.98
6.03
6.10
6.15
6.22
6.28
6.35
6.42
6.49
6.56
6.63
4 /
Gasoline Reslden
- ui i
it Ing
tlal (
8.94 7.99
6. 65 6.47
6.80 6.01
6.88 5.68
6.97 5.36
7.06 5.07
7.34 5.30
7.63 5.55
7.93 5.81
8.24 6.08
8.57 6.36
8.71 6.49
8.86 6.61
9.01 6.74
9.17 6.87
9.32
9.38
9.44
9.49
9.55
9.61
9.66
9.72
9.78
9.83
.01
.06
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.44
9.89 7.49
Ail .
.oonerctal
6.04
4.03
4.23
4.06
3.91
3.75
3.98
4.23
4.48
4.76
5.05
5.17
5.30
5.43
5.56
5.69
5.74
- 5.79
5.84
5.89
5.94
5.98
6.03
6.08
6.13
6.18
Diesel
6.94
5.63
5.90
6.19
6.50
6.82
7.06
7.31
7.57
7.84
8.12
8.25
8.37
8.50
8.64
8.77
8.82
8.87
8. 91
8.96
9.01
9.06
9.11
9.16
9.21
9.26
I/ World prices are assumed to be the sane as U.S. prices.
Prices ttere converted fro* 1988 dollars to 1985 dollars assuming a deflator of .9113.
Historical values used for 1985-1987. 1985 date from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 1987 and Mas escalated from 1987$ to 1988$
using the EIA Implicit 6NP Price Deflator of 2.8X found In the 1989 report. 1986 and 1987 numbers come directly from the 1989 report.
21 1988-2010 electricity prices based on ICF forecasts of U.S. average electricity prices.
3/ 1988-2010 natural gas prices esttouted from wellhead forecasts in ICF's Energy Service '888.
«/ 1988-2010 oil prices estimated from world crude prices forecast by ICF using the following:
Price formulas: Heat Contents:
Gasoline (}/Bbl) - l.087*Crude ($/Bbl) + 22.22
Diesel (J/Bbl) - 1.038*Crude (S/Bbl) « 2S.9S
Residential Heating Oil ($/Bbt) - 1
lomerctal Heating Oil (l/Bbl)
.033*Crude M/Bbl) + 14.84
1.033'Crude (J/Bbl) * 6.44
Crude - 5.736 mBtu/bbl
Gasoline - 5.253 emBtu/bbl
Diesel - 5.825 anfltu/bbl
Heating Oil - 5.825 n "u/bb
'ource: DOE/EIA Monthly Ener iy evlew.
)/ 16.
-------
APPENDIX E
DETAILED RESULTS FOR THE SUBSTITUTION SCENARIOS
-------
E-1
AGGREGATE SCENARIOS (ALL END USES)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 . ppb in 2075
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C — lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ' ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
C-...lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
nu Lri. --•
Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1
0.029
35.500
8.700
8.300 8.300 20.800
26.703 0.217 0.575
50.939 1.295 1.367
2165 2010 2015
0.000 0.000 21.130
0.000 0.000 74.590
0.000 0.000 5.690
0.000 0.000 -9.050
0.142 0.096 0.247
4.323 4.323 4.335
7.011 4.684 4.847
12.5
0.358
21.130
74.590
5.690
-9.050
0.151
0.012
0.163
Scenario 2 ',
0.056
48.700
1.800
42.700
1.466
1.509
2020
-23.258
-151.110 .
-20.286
-101. HI
0.334
4.280
4.878
Z33C3333B333!
34.4
1.249
-23.258
-151.110
-20.286
-101.141
0.237
-0.043
0.194
Scenario 3
0.020
9.200
14.100
10.600
0.241 .
1.313
2010
28.158
129.154
8.458
22.323
0.205
4.352
4.821
2.3
0.024
28.158
129.154
8.458
22.323
0.109
0.029
0.138
Scenario 4
0.024
17.400
11.700
13.700
0.328
1.332
2010
-62.040
-444.896
-72.321
-378.039
0.167
4.203
4.635
5.4
0.111
-62.040
-444.896
-72.321
-378.039
0.071
-0.120
-0.049
SS3SSSS3SS333S33S3SS33S3S333S3333S333SBSS3
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-2
END USE: HobiIe Air Conditioners
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no t,rv. ........................ .................
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 'Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of Alt Substitutes
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Times 1986 Value 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703
ppb 50.939
2165
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000
Global 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000
Global 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCS/HFCS
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to. 1985
Energy Impacts
Degrees C in 2075
O.U2
4.323
7.011
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US %
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Degrees C in 2075
80. OX
0.000 .
0.000
0.000
1.600
8.300 8.300
0.119 0.119
1.158 1.161
2010 2010
0.000 0.909
0.000 1.630
0.000 0.473
0.000 0.691
0.096 0.109
4.323 4.323
4.674 4.687
0.0
0.000
0.909
1.630
0.473
0.691
0.013
0.000
0.013
80. OX
0.035
0.022
1.500
0.400
9.000
0.146
1.164
2010
•0.669
-1.206
-0.842
-1.293
0.105
4.323
4.682
0.7
0.027
-0.669
-1.206
-0.842
-1.293
0.008
-0.000
0.008
80. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.600
8.300
0.119
1.161
2010
0.909
1.630
0.473
0.691
0.109
4.323
4.687
0.0
0.000
0.909
1.630
0.473
0.691
0.013
0.000
0.013
333=3333333
80. OX
0.029
0.008
0.600
1.200
8.600
0.125
1.162
2010
-1.604
-2.885
-1.547
•2.352
0.103
4.322
4.680
0.3
0.006
-1.604
-2.885
-1.547
-2.352
0.007
-0.000
0.006
8333333!
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-3
END USE: Residential Refrigeration
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no uru
Units Controls Phase-Out
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
rear of Maximum Increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
C-.-lattve Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1935 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global ' 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C tn 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Tines 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
C_.~lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C— lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Wanning (2) Degrees C in 2075 •
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Scenario 1 :
100. OX
0.035
0.028
0.800
0.200
8.700
0.131
1.158
2010
-1.620
•22.542
-5.213
-32.866
0.100
4.317
4.672
0.4
0.012
-1.620
-22.542
-5.213
-32.866
0.004
-0.006
-0.002
Scenario 2 S
100. OX
0.050
0.038
0.700
0.200
8.800
0.135
1.158
2010
-9.247
-119.702
-10.301
-65.473
0.102
4.289
4.646
0.5
0.016
-9.247
-119.702
•10.301
-65.473
0.005
-0.034
-0.029
icenario 3 S
92. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.900
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
1.012
11.528
-3.008
-18.787
0.102
4.326
4.684
0.0
0.000
1.012
11.528
-3.008
-18.787
0.006
0.004
0.010
icenario 4
100. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
-3.780
•52.597
•12.163
•76.688
0.097
4.309
4.661
0.0
0.000
-3.780
-52.597
-12.163
-76.688
0.001
-0.014
-0.013
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
: ' ititutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-4
END USE: Chillers (centrifugal and reciprocating)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no uri. — ........... ................ . ...
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
.Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
ppb 50.939 1.158
2165 2010
Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
Billions of 1985 US S
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
Degrees C in 2075
0.142 0.096
A. 323 4.323
7.011 4.674
60. OX
0.020
0.008
2.200
1.100
8.900
0.125
1.159
2010
0.373
4.357
0.710
5.731
0.106
4.324
4.685
60. OX
0.050
0.030
3.400
0.000
10.500
0.202
1.162
2010
0.970
8.474
1.405
9.128
0.121
4.325
4.701
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted' HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
Billions of 1985 US $
Degrees- C in 2075
0.6
0.006
0.373
4.357
0.710
5.731
0.009
0.001
0.011
2.2
0.083
0.970
8.474
1.405
9.128
0.025
0.002
0.027
47. OX
0.020
0.006
1.800
0.900
8.800
0.124
1.159
. 2010
0.345
3.674
0.658
4.884
0.104
4.324
4.683
0.5
0.005
0.345
3.674
0.658
4.884
0.008
0.001
0.008
60. OX
0.029
0.006
0.900
1.600
8.600
0.127
1.159
2010
-3.086
-25.266
-2.225
-11.405
0.105
4.316
4.676
0.3
0.008
-3.086
-25.266
-2.225
-11.405
0.009
-0.007
0.002
ZaaaaaaaaaaaaSSaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSaaSSSSSSaaaaSSSSSBaSaaaaaaaaaSS!
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
:SSS3S3S333333S333a338S3333333333335S33aaaaa==
-------
E-5
END USE: Process Refrigeration
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no crL ................... ...
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming . Degrees C in 2075
. Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
84. OX
0.035
0.024
1.100
0.300
8.300 8.300 8.800
26.703 0.119 0.139
50.939 1.158 1.161
2165 2010 2010
0.000 0.000 -0.064
0.000 0.000 -0.224
0.000 0.000 -0.121
0.000 0.000 -0.352
0.142 0.096 0.102
4.323 4.323 4.323
84. OX
0.050
0.042
1.400
0.000
9.200
0.156
1.162
2010
0.072
0.229
-0.010
-0.044
0.107
4.323
50. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.800
8.300
0.119
1.159
2010
0.031
0.097
-0.017
-0.056
0.103
4.323
Total 7.011 4.674 4.680 4.685 4.681
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C — lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
asaaaasasasaaaasssaaassaaaaasaaaaassaaBaaaBaaaaaassaaaaaasasssa
0.5
0.020
-0.064
-0.224
-0.121
-0.352
. 0.006
-0.000
0.006
0.9
0.037
0.072
0.229
-0.010
-0.044
0.011
0.000
0.011
0.0
0.000
0.031
0.097
•0.017
-0.056
0.006
0.000
0.006
84. OX
0.035
0.024
1.100
0.300
8.800
0.139
1.161
2010
-0.064
-0.224
-0.121
-0.352
0.102
4.323
4.680
0.5
0.020
-0.064
-0.224
-0.121
-0.352
0.006
-0.000
0.006
aaaaaaasaaaaaaaasaaasssaaaaaaaaasasaaaaaaaasassssaaaaaaaaasaa
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the subs-'tutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65.degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
£-6
END USE: Cold Storage Warehouses
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
HO uri. ----.-.--..--.-..-...........
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Ful ly-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Ful ly-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
81. OX 81. OX 50. OX
0.035 0.050 0.000
0.019 0.041 0.000
0.900 1.300 0.000
0.400 0.000 0.800
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300 8.700 9.200 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119 0.134 0.151 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158 1.159 1.160 1.158
Year of Maximum Increase 2165 2010 2010 2010 2010
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000 -0.043 -0.556 0.025
Global 0.000 0.000 -0.238 -1.048 0.137
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000 -0.048 -0.444 0.010
Global 0.000 0.000 -0.219 -0.843 0.033
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096 0.103 0.106 0.103
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323 4.323 4.322 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674 4.681 4.684 4.681
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Wanning (2) Degrees C in 2075 •
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
0.4 0.9 0.0
0.015 0.032 0.000
-0.043 -0.556 0.025
-0.238 -1.048 0.137
-0.048 -0.444 0.010
-0.219 -0.843 0.033
0.007 0.010 0.006
-0.000 -0.000 0.000
0.007 0.009 0.006
Scenario 4
81. OX
0.029
0.008
0.300
0.600
8.400
0.122
1.158
2010
-3.029
•5.667
-2.002
-3.582
0.100
4.321
4.676
0.1
0.003
-3.029
-5.667
-2.002
-3.582
0.003
-0.002
0.002
3SSS3SS353S3333333333S33333SSSS33SS33333SS33S333333S333S33333S3S33SS333SS3SSS3S3S3
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-7
END USE: Retail Food Storage
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Oepleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Average Ozone-Oepleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global CU Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Haxinun Increase Relative to 1985 ppb
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
8.300
26.703
50.939
2165
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.142
4.323
7.011
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
75. OX
0.035
0.010
0.700
1.100
8.600
0.131
1.159
2010
-0.035
-0.138
-0.087
-0.285
0.110
4.323
4.688
75. OX
0.050
0.038
1.700
0.000
9.400
0.163
1.162
2010
-0.095
•0.210
-0.163
-0.384
0.110
4.323
4.687
62. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.400
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.027
0.108
0.043
0.131
0.110
4.323
75. OX
0.029
0.008
0.400
0.700
8.500
0.123
1.158
2010
-0.399
-0.880
•0.587
-1.294
0.100
4.322
4.688 4.678
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
0.3
0.012
1.1
0.044
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
rz3a=a33=3===a33333sa=a333333333333aaa3aas33333333Ssa3333S3333as333S3S33S33:
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
0.0
0.000
0.2
0.004
-0.035
-0.138
-0.087
-0.285
0.014
0.000
0.014
•0.095
•0.210
-0.163
-0.384
0.013
-0.000
0.013
0.027
0.108
0.043
0.131
0.014
0.000
0.014
•0.399
-0.880
-0.587
-1.294
0.004
-0.000
0.004
:ssssssss:
-------
E-8
END USE: Other Refrigeration Appliances
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative -to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
no uru
Units Controls Phase-Out
Percent
Relative to
CFC- 11
Relative to
CFC-11
Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
ppb 50.939 1.158
2165 2010
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Degrees C- in 2075
0.142 0.096
4.323 4.323
7.011 4.674
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
95. OX
0.035
0.026
0.100
0.000
8.400
0.122
1.158
2010
-0.930
-7.380
-1.657
-9.371
0.097
4.321
4.673
95. OX
0.050
0.048
0.200
0.000
8.400
0.123
1.158
2010
1.215
8.672
-0.255
-1.907
0.098
4.325
4.678
90. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.200
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.764
5.401
-0.524
-3.271
95. OX
0.035
0.026
0.100
0.000
8.400
0.122
1.158
2010
-0.930
-7.380
-1.657
-9.371
0.098 0.097
4.324 4.v>i
4.677 4.<»j
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Wanning (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Degrees C in 2075
0.1
0.003
-0.930
-7.380
-1.657
-9.371
0.001
-0.002
-0.001
0.1
0.004
1.215
8.672
-0.255
•1.907
0.001
0.002
0.004
0.0
0.000
0.764
5.401
-0.524
-3.271
0.1
0.003
-0.930
-7.380
-1.657
-9.371
0.001 0.001
0.002 -0.002
0.003 -0.001
Footnotes:
(1) These are -jstimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-9
END USE: Refrigerated Transport
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
NO t-ri. ------ — .... .. — ...... .....
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C — lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
. Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Va''je
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
C_.~latwe Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C-.~lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
95. OX
0.035
0.027
1.000
0.300
8.300 8.300 8.800
26.703 0.119 0.135
50.939 1.158 1.159
2165 2010 2010
0.000 0.000 -0.129
0.000 0.000 -4.230
0.000 0.000 -0.161
0.000 0.000 -2.597
95. OX
0.035
0.027
1.000
0.300
8.800
0.136
1.159
2010
-0.107
-3.998
-0.149
-2.543
90. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.156
5.421
-0.007
0.463
95. OX
0.029
0.010
0.400
0.800
8. 500
0.123
1.158
2010
-0.305
-10.202
-0.254
-4.449
0.142 0.096 0.102 0.102 0.104 0.101
4.323 4.323 4.322 4.322 4.324 4.320
7.011 4.674 4.678 4.678 4.683 4.676
3333SSS33833SS333S383333S333S33333 32333332222 22=33333333 33 3322
0.5
0.016
-0.129
-4.230
-0.161
-2.597
0.005
-0.001
0.004
0.5
0.017
-0.107
-3.998
-0.149
-2.543
0.005
-0.001
0.004
0.0
0.000
0.156
5.421
-0.007
0.463
0.007
0.001
0.009
0.2
0.004
-0.305
-10.202
-0.254
-4.449
0.004
•0.002
0.002
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world.scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-10
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam (refrigeration)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no in
Units Controls Phase-Out
Substitute Market Potential - CFC-11
- CFC-12
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Percent
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Times 1986 Value 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703
ppb 50.939
2165
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000
Global 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000
Global 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming
Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323
Total 7.011
===S3SS==S======S33333=3333SSSS333SS33B3S333S333333333S3S3338333S3S3SaSS
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Degrees C in 2075
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
100. OX
100. OX
0.020
0.020
2.000
0.000
8.800
0.124
1.159
2010
2.400
26.784
4.231
22.299
0.098
4.330
4.683
0.5
0.005
2.400
26.784
4.231
22.299
0.001
0.007
0.008
100. OX
100. OX
0.080
0.080
1.700
0.000
10.000
0.176
1.164
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.100
4.323
4.678
1.7
0.057
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.000
0.003
Scenario 3
80. OX
O.OX
0.020
0.016
1.000
0.000
8.600
0.122
1.158
2010
1.920
21.427
3.385
17.839
0.097
4.329
4.i81
0.3
0.003
1.920
21.427
3.385
17.839
0.001
0.006
0.006
Scenario 4
100. 07
100.0'..
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
•11.980
-133.840
-20.^0
-109.818
0.096
4.285
4.637
0.0
0.000
•11.980
-133.840
•20. "d
-109.818
0.000
-0.037
-0.037
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-11
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Substitute Market Potential - CFC-11 Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully- Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully- Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1
Year of Maximum Increase 2165
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0
Global 0.000 0
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States 0.000 0
Global 0.000 0
Equilibrium Global Wanning Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4
Total 7.011 4
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cv..~lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US I
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
.300
.119
.158
2010
.000
.000
.000
.000
.096
.323
.674
asasaaaaaa
95. OX
0.020
0.019
0.100
0.000
8.400
0.119
1.158
2010
1.453
8.702
1.004
4.155
0.097
4.325
4.677
0.1
0.000
1.453
8.702
1.004
4.155
95. OX
0.080
0.076
0.100
0.000
8.400
0.122
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
65. OX
0.020
0.013
0.100
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.994
5.954
0.687
2.843
95. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
-7.264
-43.495
-4.969
-20.441
0.097 0.097 0.096
4.323 4.324 4.310
4.675 4.676 4.662
0.1
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.0
0.000
0.994
5.954
0.687
2.843
0.0
0.000
-7.264
-43.495
-4.969
-20.441
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) • 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 0.002 0.000 0.002 -0.012
Total 0.003 0.000 0.002 -0.012
-sssssssaassaaasaaaaaaasassssaaaaaaaaaaaassssssaasaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasssaaaaasaaaaaaaaaaarssssssaaaasaaaaaaaaaaaaaasrs
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-12
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential - CFC-11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
ppb 50.939 1.158
2165 2010
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Degrees C in 2075
0.142 0.096
4.323 4.323
7.011 4.674
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
====S=====SS====3SS333S3S333SS3S353S33
Degrees C in 2075
95. OX
0.020
0.019
0.300
0.000
8.400
0.120
1.158
2010
0.318
8.126
0.169
2.080
0.097
4.325
4.676
0.1
0.001
0.318
8.126
0.169
2.080
95. OX
0.080
0.076
0.300
0.000
8.600
0.129
1.159
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.097
4.323
4.675
0.3
0.010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000 0.001
0.002 0.000
0.002 0.001
65. OX
0.020
0.013
0.100
0.000
8.400
0.119
1.158
2010
0.218
5.560
0.116
1.423
0.097
4.324
4.676
0.1
0.000
0.218
5.560
0.116
1.423
0.000
0.001
0.001
:=====S3SSSS3
95. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
-1.589
-40.617
-0.830
-10.306
0.096
4.313
4.665
0.0
0.000
-1.589
-40.617
-0 "1
-10.306
0.000
-0.009
-0.009
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam (insulation)
E-13
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no v,ri. .--..-. ................... ...........
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential - CFC-11 Percent
- CFC- 12 Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Average Ozone- Depict ing Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cv.~lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US *
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
.Total
3533333333533333355533S353S333533553S33333S33333S33S3333333333:
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 • ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cv..~lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
60. OX
60. OX
0.029
0.017
7.200
0.000
8.300 8.300 11.000
26.703 0.119 0.183
50.939 1.158 1.162
2165 2010 2010
0.000 0.000 10.588
0.000 0.000 32.575
0.000 0.000 6.105
0.000 0.000 14.782
0.142 0.096 0.114
4.323 4.323 4.327
7.011 4.674 4.696
2.7
0.064
10.588
32.575
6.105
14.782
60. OX
60. OX
0.069
0.041
6.300
0.000
13.900
0.309
1.173
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.120
4.323
4.698
5.6
0.190
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
40. OX
O.OX
0.020
0.008
2.800
0.000
9.000
0.127
1.159
2010
7.059
21.717
4.&70
9.854
0.098
4.326
4.679
0.7
0,008
7.059
21.717
4.070
9.854
60. OX
60. OX
0.020
0.012
6.600
0.000
10.000
0.136
1.161
2010
-1.059
-3.258
-0.614
-1.486
0.100
4.322
4.677
1.7
0.017
-1.059
-3.258
-0.614
-1.486
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) • 0.018 0.024 0.002 0.003
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 0.004 0.000 0.003 -0.000
Total 0.022 0.024 0.004 0.003
sissssasssssaaaazaszzssssssaaasaaasaaaaasaaaassssaassBsssaasaassaasasaaaaasaassssssssaaasassaaaaaasaaaasaassssiisaaassssisaassa
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-14
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam (packaging)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no I.TL
Units Controls Phase-Out
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Hatogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939
Year of Maximum Increase 2165
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
united States 0.000
Global 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000
Global 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323
Total 7.011
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
Scenario 1
20.0%
0.028
0.006
0.300
0.000
8.400
0.122
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0,097
4.323
4.675
0.1
0.003
0,000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
Scenario 2 Scenario 3
20.0%
0.070
0.014
0.200
0.000
8.500
0.126
1.159
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.097
4.323
4.675
0.2
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
o.ox
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Scenario 4
20.0%
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-15
END USE: Flexible Foams
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC- 11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted NCFC Emissions Increase Times 1966 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
Year of Maximum Increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
C — lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
C_.~latwe Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
20. OX
0.020
0.004
0.800
0.000
8.500
0.121
1.159
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.097
4.323
4.675
0.2
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
20. OX
0.080
0.016
0.600
0.000
8.900
0.140
1.164
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.098
4.323
4.676
0.6
0.021
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
o.ox
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
20. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-16
END USE: Rigid Non-Polyurethane Foam (insulation)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
nu
Units Controls
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Phase-Out Scenario 1
Percent of Futly-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
•Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Times 1986 Value 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703
ppb 50.939
2165
Ouadr i 1 1 i on B t us ( Quads )
0.000
0.000
Billions of 1985 US $
0.000
0.000
Degrees C in 2075
0.142
4.323
7.011
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
Bill tons of 1985 US $
Degrees C in 2075
40. OX
0.055
0.022
0.400
0.000
8.500
0.129
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.099
4.323
4.677
•BS3SSSSSSSSS
0.2
0.010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
40. OX
0.055
0.022
0.400
0.000
8.500
0.129
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.099
4.323
4.677
0.2
0.010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.002 0.002
0.000 0.000
0.002 0.002
40. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.200
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.432
2.352
0.319
1.482
0.098
4.323
4.676
0.0
0.000
0.432
2.352
0.319
1.482
40. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.400
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
-0.058
-0.314
-0.043
-0.198
0.099
4.W
4.o/ i
0.0
0.000
-0.058
-0.314
-0.043
-0.198
0.002 0.003
0.000 0.000
0.002 0.003
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-17
END USE: Rigid Non-Polyurethane Foam (packaging)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no i.ri, .... ................. .........
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Max. — m Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
ppb
C-,~ lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US I
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Degrees C in 2075
30. OX
0.050
0.015
0.600
0.000
8.300 8.300 8.700
26.703 0.119 0.135
50.939 1.158 1.161
2165 2010 2010
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
30. OX
0.050
0.015
0.600
0.000
8.700
0.135
1.161
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
o.ox
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
30. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.142 0.096 0.101 0.101 0.096 0.096
4.323 4.323 4.323 4.323 4.323 4.323
7.011 4.674 4.679 4.679 4.674 4.674
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US *
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Degrees C in 2075
0.4
0.016
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.005
0.000
0.005
0.4
0.016
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.005'
0.000
0.005
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
S333S3333333SS3333=3333=S383S33333333S3333S3333=3==3S33333S33333333S5S33S33S3333333333333333
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-18
END USE: Solvent Cleaning • Cold Cleaning
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
Percent of Fully- Ha logenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
rear of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Units
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
ppb
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Degrees C in 2075
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
8.300 8.300
26.703 0.119
50.939 1.158
2165 2010
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.142 0.096
4.323 4.323
7.011 4.674
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Degrees C in 2075
33333388333833333:
67. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.160
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
=3333353333333=
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
B3SSS33S33S3SS:
43. OX
0.058
0.025
0.700
0.000
8.900
0.137
1.161
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.098
4.323
4.675
0.6
0.018
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
31. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.159
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
67. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.160
. 2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-19
END USE: Solvent Cleaning - Vapor Degress ing
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Ful ly-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Ful ly-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
Year of Maximum Increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
Cv..~lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674
3S33SS3333S3S33SS3S3SS33SSS53S3335333333S3355333S3SS33333S3S333S35333S3SS3S33SS3333
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Wanning (2) Degrees C in 2075 .
67. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.172
2010
0.796
2.564
0.760
2.396
0.096
4.323
4.675
0.0
0.000
0.796
2.564
0.760
2.396
43. OX
0.058
0.025
6.500
0.000
13.100
0.273
1.191
2015
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.106
4.323
4.684
4.8
0.154
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
31. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.164
2010
0.368
1.186
0.351
1.108
0.096
4.323
4.675
0.0
0.000
0.368
1.186
0.351
1.108
67. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.172
2010
0.796
2.564
0.760
2.396
.0.096
4.323
4.675
0.0
0.000
0.796
2.564
0.760
2.396
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) . 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.000
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001
Total 0.001 0.010 0.000 0.001
C3BSBSBa33SS=BS3BB55BB3SSB3SS33S3BBBSSa3BS33B3S3a3S333BSS3BSB383BBaSS3BS33SBBB33Be3SSSSBBSaa3BSBSsaSS=aaS::BaaSSBSSS=BSSBaBS=
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2> These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
E-20
END USE: Sterilization (hospital)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
NO uri. — •
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of All Substitutes
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Relative to
CFC-11
Percent of Ful ly-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Ful ly-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to. 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximun Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United states
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming
.Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
ppb 50.939 1.158
2165 2010
Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
Billions of 1985 US $
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
Degrees C in 2075
0.142 0.096
4.323 4.323
7.011 4.674
72. OX
0.050
0.036
0.200
0.000
8.500
0.125
1.160
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.098
4.323
4.676
72. OX
0.050
0.036
0.200
0.000
8.500
0.125
1.160
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.098
4.323
4.676
72. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
Billions of 1985 US $
Degrees C in 2075
0.2
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.000
0.002
0.2
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.000
0.002
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
Scenario 4
72. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
ssssssssas
0.0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
S3=S3S=SSS3S3S3S==3S3S3S33S333333S33SS3333333333S333333S8S333SSS3333383333S3333:
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline.CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
!33383S3S383SS33S3S3S333S338S3S3SSS3SSSS333SS3
-------
E-21
END USE: Aerosols
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Average Ozone- Depleting Potential Relative to
of All Substitutes CFC- 11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
C lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
. Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
8.300
26.703
50.939
2165
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
O.U2
4.323
7.011
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
25. OX
0.020
0.005
3.100
0.000
9.100
0.145
1.164
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.103
4.323
4.681
25. OX
0.050
0.013
3.100
0.000
10.300
0.201
1.171
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.121
4.323
4.699
25. OX
0.000
0.000
CI.OOO
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
100. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.096
4.323
4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
0.8
0.026
2.0
0.082
C-.~lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C—lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billion
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degre
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
0.0
0.000
0.0
0.000
1985 US S
in 2075
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
. 0.006
0.000
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.024
0.000
0.024
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-------
APPENDIX F
DETAILED RESULTS FOR THE TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS
-------
F-1
END USE: Mobile Air Conditioners
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no trt -• ........... -.
Units Controls Phase-Out Option 1 Option 2
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Percent of Fully- Halogens ted Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
Year of Maximum Increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
• Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
100. OX
0.050
2.300
0.000
9.700
0.180
1.170
2010
3.728
6.722
4.745
7.278
100. OX
0.035
1.900
0.500
9.200
0.153
1.166
2010
-0.838
-1.511
-1.066
-1.636
0.114 0.107
4.324 4.323
4.693 4.684
1.4
0.061
3.728
6.722
4.745
7.278
0.018
0.001
0.019
0.9
0.034
-0.838
-1.511
-1.066
-1.636
0.010
-0.000
0.010
Option 3
100. OX
0.000
0.000
2.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
1.257
2.266
1.599
2.453
0.112
4.323
4.690
0.0
0.000
1.257
2.266
1.599
2.453
0.016
0.000
0.016
Option 4
100. OX
0.029
0.800
1.500
8.600
0.127
1.160
2010
-2.094
-3.776
-2.666
-4.089
0.105
4.322
4.682
'SSSSOSSSSSS
0.3
0.008
-2.094
•3.776
-2.666
-4.089
0.008
-0.001
0.008
ISSSSSSSSSBS
Footnotes: ' • '
(1) These ere estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
F-2
END USE: Residential Refrigeration
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
nu Lru ........ ...... —
Units Controls Phase-Out Option 1 Option 2
Substitute Market Potential
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
3333SSS333S33SSS53SSS3SSSSSSSS3SSS33I
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HF(
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Times 1986 Value 8.300
ppb in 2075 26.703
ppb 50.939
2165
Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
0.000
0.000
Billions of 1985 US S
0.000
0.000
Degrees C in 2075
0.142
4.323
7.011
:s
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
Billions of 1985 US $
Degrees .C in 2075
100. OX
0.050
0.700
0.200
8.300 8.800
0.119 0.135
1.158 1.158
2010 2010
0.000 -10.834
0.000 -150.397
0.000 -35.468
0.000 -221.588
0.096 0.102
4.323 4.282
4.674 4.639
0.5
0.016
-10.834
-150.397
-35.468
-221.588
0.005
-0.040
-0.035
100. OX
0.035
0.800
0.200
8.700
0.131
1.158
2010
-1.625
-22.559
-5.320
-33.238
0.100
4.317
4.672
0.4
0.012
-1.625
-22.559
-5.320
-33.238
0.004
-0.006
-0.002
Option 3 Option 4
100. OX
0.000
0.000
1.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
1.625
22.559
5.320
33.238
0.103
4.329
4.687
0.0
0.000
1.625
22.559
5.320
33.238
0.007
0.006
0.013
100. OX
0.029
0.300
0.600
8.400
0.122
1.158
2010
-10.834
-150.397
-35.468
-221.588
0.100
4.282
4.637
0.1
0.003
-10.834
•150.397
-35.468
-221. —
0.003
-0.040
-0.037
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
END USE: Chillers (centrifugal and reciprocating)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no (,ri. ...... .
Units Controls Phase-Out Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
Year of Maximum Increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
C— lative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
100. OX
0.029
1.500
2.700
8.900
0.132
1.160
2010
-5.693
-50.329
-10.097
-64.873
100. OX
0.050
5.600
0.000
11.900
0.258
1.169
2010
1.656
14.641
2.937
18.872
100. OX
0.020
3.700
1.900
9.300
0.129
1.160
2010
0.733
7.817
1.401
10.392
100. OX
0.024
5.200
0.400
9.900
0.154
1.163
2010
-0.225
-4.653
-0.598
-6.630
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096 0.111 0.138 0.112 0.106
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323 4.310 4.326 4.325 4.322
Total 7.011 4.674 4.676 4.720 4.692 4.683
3a3333a3S3S3333=3335a33a3aSS33S5S33aa33SSa33333S5a3:S3333BS333333SSS3a3;533saaB3B33SS33SSa33SSS33S3SC33asS33S::SB5S33535SS33333
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
aasaaaaaasBasaassaassassaaasaassaaasaaasaaaaaaaaaaasaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasaaaaaaaaaaaasj
0.6
0.013
-5.693
-50.329
-10.097
-64.873
0.014
-0.013
0.002
3.6
0.139
1.656
14.641
2.937
18.872
0.042
0.004
0.046
1.0
0.010
0.733
7.817
1.401
tO. 392
0.016
0.002
0.018
1.6
0.035
-0.225
-4.653
-0.598
-6.630
0.010
-0.001
0.009
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
F-4
END USE: Process Refrigeration
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
no uru •-
Units Controls Phase-Out Option 1 Option 2
Substitute Market Potential Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
Year of Maximum Increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
100. OX
0.050
0.300
0.000
8.500
0.128
1.159
2010
-0.183
-0.641
-0.353
-1.020
0.099
4.323
4.677
0.2
0.009
-0.183
-0.641
-0.353
-1.020
0.003
-0.000
0.003
100. OX
0.050
1.600
0.000
9.400
0.163
1.164
2010
0.102
0.356
0.196
0.567
0.109
4.323
4.687
1.1
0.044
0.102
0.356
0.196
0.567
0.013
0.000
0.013
Option 3
100. OX
0.035
1.300
0.300
8.900
0.142
1.161
2010
-0.076
-0.267
-0.147
-0.425
0.103
4.323
4.681
0.6
0.023
•0.076
•0.267
•0.147
•0.425
0.007
-0.000
0.007
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
F-5
END USE: Retail Food Storage
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
BO I.M.
Units Controls Phase-Out
Substitute Market Potential Percent
werage Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
Year of Maximum Increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142 0.096
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US t
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
100. OX
0.029
0.500
1.000
8.500
0.124
1.158
2010
•0.541
-1.200
-0.965
-2.230
0.102
4.322
4.679
0.2
0.005
-0.541
-1.200
-0.965
-2.230
0.005
-0.000
0.005
100. OX
0.050
2.300
0.000
9.800
0.178
1.163
2010
-0.127
-0.281
-0.226
-0.522
0.114
4.323
4.692
1.5
0.059
-0.127
-0.281
-0.226
-0.522
0.018
-0.000
0.018
100. OX
0.035
0.900
1.400
8.700
0.134
1.160
2010
-0.046
•0.184
-0.118
-0.386
0.115
4.323
4.693
0.4
0.015
-0.046
-0.184
-0.118
-0.386
0.019
-0.000
0.019
saaaaasssasasaaaaassssaaaasaasaaaaaaBBasasssaaaasssssaaaaaeaaaaaaaaasaaaaaasasaaaasssa
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
! ' ititutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
F-6
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam (refrigeration)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4
Substitute Market Potential - CFC- 11 Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC- 11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703 0.119
Maximum Increase Relative to. 1985 ppb 50.939 1.158
Year of Maximum increase 2165 2010
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000 0.000
Global 0.000 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCS/HFCS) 0.142 0.096
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323 4.323
Total 7.011 4.674
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts (3)
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989*2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US S
United States
Global ^
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
100. OX
0.080
1.500
0.000
9.800
0.170
1.163
2010
2.402
26.794
4.284
22.507
0.099
4.330
4.685
1.5
0.051
2.402
26.794
4.284
22.507
0.003
0.007
0.011
100. OX
0.080
1.500
0.000
9.800
0.170
1.163
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.099
4.323
4.677
1.5
0.051
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
100. OX
0.080
1.700
0.000
10.000
0.176
1.164
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.100
4.323
4.678
1.7
0.057
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003 0.003
0.000 0.000
0.003 0.004
100. OX
0.020
2.000
0.000
8.800
0.124
1.159
2010
2.402
26.794
4.284
22.507
0.098
4.330
4.683
0.5
0.005
2.402
26.794
4.284
22.507
0.001
0.007
0.009
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium teraerature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
(3) The energy impacts associated with the use of substitutes for rigid
polyurethane foam (refrigeration) and residential refrigeration
are not additive.
-------
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam (refrigeration)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units Controls Phase-Out Option 5 Option 6
Substitute Market Potential - CFC-11 Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value 8.300
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075 26.703
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb 50.939
Year of Maximum Increase 2165
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States 0.000
Global 0.000
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States 0.000
Global 0.000
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs) 0.142
Indirect (Energy Emissions) 4.323
Total 7.011
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts (3)
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
100. OX
0.020
2.000
0.000
8.300 8.800
0.119 0.124
1.158 1.159
2010 2010
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.096 0.098
4.323 4.323
4.674 4.675
0.5
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
100. OX
0.020
2.100
0.000
8.900
0.125
1.159
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.098
4.323
4.675
0.6
0.006
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
Option 7
100. OX
0.000
0.000
0.000
8.300
0.119
1.158
2010
-12.012
-133.970
•21.420
-112.533
0.096
4.285
4.637
:SSSSSSS22SSSS
0.0
0.000
-12.012
-133.970
-21.420
-112.533
0.000
-0.037
-0.037
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
(3) The energy impacts associated with the use of substitutes for rigid
polyurethane foam (refrigeration) and residential refrigeration
are not additive.
-------
F-3
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam (insulation)
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
Units I
Substitute Market Potential • CFC-11 Percent
Average Ozone-Depleting Potential Relative to
of HCFC Substitutes CFC-11
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985 ppb
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
Cumulative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
Equilibrium Global Warming (2) Degrees C in 2075
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
=as=ss=s53sss53aaaaaas3333838a333S33Baaaaaasaaas3S333a33333a33:
no v,rv, .....
Controls Phase-Out Option 1 C
100. OX
0.029
12.100
0.000
8.300 8.300 12.800
26.703 0.119 0.225
50.939 1.158 1.166
2165 2010 2010
0.000 0.000 17.652
0.000 0.000 54.306
0.000 0.000 10.230
0.000 0.000 24.766
0.142 0.096 0.126
4.323 4.323 4.330
7.011 4.674 4.711
4.5
0.106
17.652
54.306
10.230
24.766
0.030
0.007
0.037
Iption 2 C
100. OX
0.029
12.100
0.000
12.800
0.225
1.166
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.126
4.323
4.704
4.5
0.106
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.030
0.000
0.030
Iption 3
100. OX
0.029
12.500
0.000
12.900
0.226
1.166
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.127
4.323
4.704
4.6
0.107
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.030
0.000
0.030
Option 4
100. OX
0.069
9.900
0.000
16.900
0.413
1.185
2015
17.652
54.306
10.230
24.766
0.134
4.330
.4.719
8.6
0.294
17.652
54.306
10.230
24.766
0.038
0.007
0.045
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
-------
F-9
END USE: Rigid Polyurethane Foam (insulation)
Substitute Market Potential - CFC-11
Average Ozone-depleting Potential
of HCFC Substitutes
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by HCFC Substitutes (1)
Percent of Fully-Halogenated Compounds
Replaced by only HFC Substitutes
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985
Maximum Increase Relative to 1985
Year of Maximum Increase
Energy Impacts
CFC Phase-Out with HCFC/HFC Substitutes
NO
Units Controls
Percent
Relative to
CFC-11
Lri,
Phase-Out Option 5 Option 6 Option 7
100. OX
0.069
100. OX
0.069
100. OX
0.020
Times 1986 Value
ppb in 2075
ppb
8.300 8.300
26.703
50.939
2165
0.119
1.158
2010
9.900
0.000
16.900
0.413
1.185
2015
10.500
0.000
17.600
0.435
1.188
2015
11.000
0.000
11.100
0.148
1.162
2010
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C—lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US t
United States
Global
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-1.960
-7.962
•1.136
-3.315
Equilibrium Global Warming
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
Degrees C in 2075
0.142
4.323
7.011
0.096
4.323
4.674
0.134
4.323
4.712
0.136
4.323
4.714
0.102
4.322
4.679
saaasaaaaBaaaaaaaaaasassssaaaaassBssaaassasaaasaBaassBssssaaaaassaasaaaasassssaaassssaaasBsssssasaaasssssaacssssssaaaaasss
INCREMENTAL CONTRIBUTION OF HCFCs/HFCs
Weighted HCFC Emissions Increase Times 1986 Value
Global Clx Concentrations
Increase Relative to 1985 ppb in 2075
Energy Impacts
Cumulative Energy Impact 1989-2075 Quadrillion Btus (Quads)
United States
Global
C-.~lative Energy Cost 1989-2010 Billions of 1985 US $
United States
Global
8.6
0.294
9.3
0.316
2.8
0.029
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-1.960
-7.962
-1.136
-3.315
Degrees C in 2075
Equilibrium Global Warming (2)
Direct (HCFCs/HFCs)
Indirect (Energy Emissions)
Total
sssBBSsaaaassaassssaaasBaaaaaaBBBSaaaaasasaaaassaaaasssaaaaaaasssssaaaassaaaaaaa
Footnotes:
(1) These are estimated by calculating the emissions of the HCFC
substitutes as a percentage of the baseline CFCs emissions. They are
therefore influenced by the replacement factor of the substitutes.
(2) These results compare to a 5.65 degree C equilibrium temperature increase
for the rapidly changing world scenario of EPA's draft report on the Policy
Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
0.038
0.000
0.038
0.039
0.000
0.039
0.006
•0.001
0.005
-------
APPENDIX G
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF HCFC LIFETIMES
-------
APPENDIX G
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF HCFC LIFETIMES
Projections of the atmospheric concentration of HCFCs and MFCs (and
therefore stratospheric chlorine and equilibrium global warming) depend on
estimates of atmospheric lifetimes. The lifetimes characterize the decay of
the atmospheric burden of these compounds due to various removal processes,
particularly via reaction with tropospheric OH.
The HCFC and HFC lifetimes used in this report are derived from the LLNL
1-D model as reported in Fisher et al., 1989.
Although the fact that HCFCs and HFCs have shorter lifetimes than CFCs is
well-established, uncertainties remain in estimates of HCFC and HFC lifetimes.
For example, Prather (1989) has presented new lifetime estimates for these
compounds that are generally lower than the LLNL 1-D lifetimes used for the
calculations in this report.
To show the sensitivity of stratospheric chlorine and global warming
estimates to assumptions about HCFC and HFC lifetimes, this Appendix presents
an analysis of these factors for alternative lifetimes. The following
sensitivity runs are presented:
• Base Lifetimes (LLN1 1-D Model);
• Base Lifetimes increased by 25 percent;
• Base Lifetimes decreased by 25 percent;
• Prather's (1989) Scaled Lifetimes.
Estimates of HCFC and HFC emissions from the "Prudent Use" substitution
scenario presented in Chapter 3 are used for each sensitivity run. The only
difference among the runs is the atmospheric lifetimes of the HCFCs and HFCs.
Exhibit G-l presents the atmospheric lifetimes assumed for HCFCs and HFCs
in each run.
Equilibrium global warming estimates as of 2075 for each of these
sensitivity runs are shown in Exhibit G-2.1 Exhibit G-3 presents the
estimated contribution of HCFC and HFC substitutes to global warming over time
for the alternative lifetime values. When lifetimes are increased from the
base values (i.e., slower decay), greater global warming occurs as atmospheric
1 The warming values shown are the contribution of HCFCs and HFCs to
equilibrium warming, including indirect impacts associated with changes in
energy-related trace gas emissions.
-------
G-2
EXHIBIT G-l
ATMOSPHERIC LIFETIMES FOR HCFCs AND HFCs USED IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Compound
HCFC-22
HCFC-123
HFC-134a
HCFC-141b
HCFC-124
HFC-152a
HFC-125
HCFC-142b
Base (LINL)
Lifetimes
20
1.9
21
8.9
8.4
2.1
37
25
Base +25%
15
1.4
16
6.7
6.3
1.6
28
19
Base -25%
25
2.4
26
11.1
10.5
2.6
46
31
Prather
Scaled
15.3
1.59
15.5
7.8
6.6
1.68
28.1
19.1
-------
G-3
EXHIBIT G-2
SENSITIVITY OF EQUILIBRIUM WARMING AS OF 2075 TO HCFC/HFC LIFETIMES
Sensitivity Run
Contribution of HCFC/HFC
Substitutes to Global Warming
(degrees C)
1. Base Lifetimes
2. Base Lifetimes + 25%
3. Base Lifetimes - 25%
4. Prather Scaled Lifetimes
0.138
0.155
0.117
0.116
-------
EXHIBIT G-3 Global Warming: HCFC/HFC Lifetime Sensitivity
0.16
E
o
o
«•
o
4*
o
o
A
(A
O
O
U.
U
0.15 -
0.14 -
0.13 -
0.12 -
0.11 -
0.1 -
0.09 -
0.08 -
0.07 -
0.06 -
0.06 -
0.04 -
0.03 -
0.02 ~
0.01 -
0
•25%
''S \
' \
-25%
and Prather Scaled
Base Lifetimes
1980
2000
1
2020
1
2040
1
2060
2080
Year
-------
G-5
concentrations of the HCFCs and HFCs increase above base run levels. For a 25
percent increase in lifetimes, the HCFC and HFC contribution to global warming
increases by about 12 percent. Total equilibrium global warming increases by
less than 1 percent.
As the data in Exhibit G-2 indicate, the difference between the warming
contribution for the Prather scaled and the BAse -25 percent runs is very
small. The time series of global warming contribution for these two runs are
nearly coincident in Exhibit G-3.
Clx contributions from HCFC and HFC substitutes are presented for the
sensitivity runs in Exhibit G-4.2 As with the global warming runs, the effect
of greater lifetimes (e.g., +25 percent) is to increase the atmospheric
concentration of the HCFC's, which leads to greater stratospheric
concentrations of chlorine. A 25 percent increase in lifetimes is calculated
to yield a 63 percent increase in the HCFC/HFC contribution to Clx in 2075.
The time series of HCFC/HFC contribution to Clx is shown in Exhibit G-5.
The rapid initial growth in Clx contributions shows after 2005, reflecting
decreases in use of several HCFCs (22, 141b, and 124).
2 Note that HFCs have no chlorine and therefore have zero contribution to
Clx levels.
-------
G-6
EXHIBIT G-4
SENSITIVITY OF CLX IN 2075 TO HCFC/HFC LIFETIMES
Sensitivity Run
Contribution of HCFC/HFC
Substitutes to Global Warming
(degrees C)
1. Base Lifetimes
2. Base Lifetimes + 25%
3. Base Lifetimes - 25%
4. Prather Scaled Lifetimes
0.024
0.039
0.013
0.017
-------
EXHIBIT G-5 Sensitivity of Clx to HCFC/HFC Lifetimes
3*
~ £
°
II
u £
u. £
o ?
I g
u
0.04
0.035 -
0.03 -
0.026 -
0.02 -
0.015 -
0.01 -
0.005
1960
2000
2020
2040
2080
Year
-------
G-8
REFERENCES
Fisher, D.A., Hales, H.A., Filkin, D.A., Ko, M.K.W., Sze, N.D., Connell, P.S.,
Wuebbles, D.J., Isaksen, I.S.A., and Stordal, F., "Relative Effects on
Stratospheric Ozone of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of Social and
Industrial Interest," in AFEAS Report. Sept. 1989 (Proof version).
Prather, M.J., "Tropospheric Hydroxyl Concentrations and the Lifetimes of
Hydrofluorocarbons (HCFCs)," in AFEAS Report. Sept. 1989 (Proof version).
-------
APPENDIX H
ANALYSIS OF RECYCLING IN CURRENT USES OF HCFC-22
-------
APPENDIX H
ANALYSIS OF RECYCLING IN CURRENT USES OF HCFC-22
One HCFC compound, HCFC-22, is currently used in refrigeration and air
conditioning applications (i.e., not as a substitute for CFCs). Emissions of
HCFC-22 from these current uses may contribute to stratospheric chlorine and
global warming. This Appendix presents the results of an analysis of the
changes in stratospheric chlorine and global warming that may be expected if
HCFC-22 is recycled in current applications.
1.1 APPROACH
The impacts of recycling in current uses of HCFC-22 on stratospheric
chlorine and global warming were estimated by undertaking the following steps:
• identifying current applications of HCFC-22;
• allocating HCFC-22 use quantities to these
applications over time;
• estimating for each application the reduction in HCFC-
22 emissions that may be achieved through recycling;
and
• calculating stratospheric chlorine concentrations and
global warming after this recycling is put in place.
Exhibit H-l shows the current applications of HCFC-22 where fugitive emissions
occur1 and the portion of HCFC-22 consumption accounted for by each.
HCFC-22 consumption in current uses was allocated to these applications
over time. HCFC-22 emissions were then estimated by applying release tables
for each application that indicate the fraction of use that is emitted each
year following the initial year of use. (The release tables used for each
application are presented in Appendix A2.) This calculation resulted in
estimates of HCFC-22 emissions in the absence of recycling.
Recycling is estimated to reduce HCFC-22 emissions by varying amounts in
each application due to differences in equipment physical location, charge
size, and service practices. For example, emissions from room, unitary, and
packaged terminal air conditioning units would be reduced by 29 percent,
whereas emissions from cold storage warehouses would be reduced by 41 percent.
1 HCFC-22 is also used as a chemical precursor for polymer manufacturing.
This use is not considered here because little or no emissions are estimated
to occur from this application.
2 Because no release table is available for air conditioning
applications, the release table for chillers is used.
-------
H-2
EXHIBIT H-l
CURRENT USES OF HCFC-22
Application
Air Conditioning b
Chillers
Retail Food
Cold Storage Warehouses
Refrigerated Transportation
Industrial Process Refrigeration
Household Ice Machines
Share of HCFC-22
Fugitive Use '
49.1
18.8
10.6
20.9
0.12
c 0.40
0.08
Reduction
from Recycling
29.0
32.0
39.0
41.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
Notes:
N/A: Not available.
a Fugitive uses include air conditioning and refrigeration and exclude the
HCFC-22 used as polymer precursor.
b Includes room, unitary, and packaged terminal air conditioning.
c Indications are that HCFC-22 is used in larger quantities in industrial
process refrigeration; however, no data is available to account for such
use.
Source: Worldwide Use and Emissions of Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22). EPA
Draft Paper, August 9, 1989.
-------
H-3
Exhibit H-l shows the emission reductions used in this analysis.
Applying these emission reduction estimates to each application results in a
new pattern of total HCFC-22 emissions over time with recycling.
Stratospheric chlorine concentrations and global warming were estimated
for HCFC-22 emissions both with and without recycling in current uses. The
difference between these estimates represents the reduction in stratospheric
chlorine and global warming that may be achieved through recycling.
2.1 RESULTS
Recycling HCFC-22 in current uses is estimated to reduce equilibrium
warming by 0.0274 degrees C as of 2075. This reduction is 0.5 percent of the
equilibrium temperature increase estimated in U.S. EPA's draft report to
Congress, Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate.
Recycling of HCFC-22 also is estimated to reduce stratospheric chlorine
concentrations by 0.090 parts per billion as of 2075. Comparing this
reduction to the analyses presented in Chapter 4 reveals that, with few
exceptions, the impact of HCFC-22 recycling on stratospheric chlorine levels
is at least as large as the selection of HCFC/HFC replacements for CFCs in
specific end uses.
-------
APPENDIX I
DESCRIPTION OF THE CONCENTRATIONS MODEL
-------
APPENDIX I
DESCRIPTION OF THE CONCENTRATIONS MODEL
This appendix presents the concentrations model used to evaluate the
potential increases in stratospheric inorganic chlorine levels, Clx. The
method is taken from Connell and is based on a simplified representation of
the exponential decay of abundances of each compound.1 The rate of decay is
defined by an estimate of each compound's lifetime.
Of note is that the method recognizes that each of the compounds has
slightly different "efficiencies" with which its chlorine can perturb
stratospheric ozone. The greater a compound's efficiency, the larger the
impact its chlorine will have on stratospheric ozone. For example, HCFC-22
dissociates (and consequently injects its chlorine) at a different altitude
than does CFC-11. Therefore, its chlorine is less efficient at depleting
stratospheric ozone. The estimates of chlorine abundances produced by this
method adjust for these relative efficiencies so that the total change in
chlorine abundances summed across the compounds is a consistent measure of the
potential impact on stratospheric ozone.
The estimates of changes in Clx from 1985 levels are driven by the
following data:
• Emissions: the emissions for the scenarios No Controls and
phaseout scenarios are presented in Appendix A.
• Lifetimes: the "e-folding" lifetimes of each of the compounds.
These lifetimes (taken from Connell 1986) were evaluated from a
series of 1-D model runs with total column ozone depletions of
around 10 percent (Connell 1986, p. 5). Lower levels of depletion
would result in higher estimates of the lifetimes, and
consequently higher estimates of Clx.
• Conversion Factors: the factors that convert emissions (in
millions of kilograms) into abundances of Clx. These conversion
factors reflect the number of chlorine atoms per molecule, the
molecular weight of the molecule, the relative efficiency of the
compound's chlorine at depleting ozone, and a factor combining the
column number density of the atmosphere, the surface area of the
earth, and Avbgadro's number (see Connell 1986, p. 5). The values
used to .compute the conversion factors are shown in Exhibit 1-1.
As shown in the exhibit, the relative efficiencies for the
compounds vary from 0.187 for CFC-115 to 1.185 for methyl
chloroform.
1 P.S. Connell, A Parameterized Numerical Fit to Total Column Ozone
Changes Calculated by the LLNL 1-D Model of the Troposphere and Stratosphere,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (1986).
-------
1-2
• Mixing Time : the time constant for mixing a surf ace -released
tracer completely in the atmosphere and stratosphere is estimated
at 3.5 years.
• Clx from Historical Emissions: the algorithm estimates changes in
Clx from levels in 1985. The contribution of historical emissions
to these changes was estimated by Connell (1986) and is presented
in Exhibit 1-2. As shown in the exhibit, the contributions is
initially positive, reflecting the mixing in of emissions prior to
1985. Over the long term the contribution becomes negative,
reflecting the decay of the atmospheric abundance associated with
emissions prior to 1985.
Given these values, the contribution of each compound to changes in Clx
in year t relative to 1985 levels is computed as:
t
Clx(t.j) - CF(j) * Z emissions(j) * e-(t'i)/L(J) * (l-e(t'l)/MT)
where:
Clx(t.j) - the change in Clx in year t (relative to 1985) associated
with emissions of compound j ;
CF(j) - conversion factor for compound j;
L(j) ~ atmospheric lifetime of compound j;
MT - mixing time.
To compute the total change in Clx in year t, the contributions from each of
the compunds is summed, and added to the change in Clx associated with pre-
1985 emissions.
This general method is also used for computing halon abundances .
However, the halon abundances are of the entire molecules, and are not
adjusted for the number of bromine and/or chlorine atoms, or their relative
efficiencies at perturbing stratospheric ozone. Also, the contributions of
historical halon emissions i to future changes in abundances from 1985 are
assumed to be zero.
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1-3
EXHIBIT 1-1
CONVERSION FACTOR COMPUTATION DATA
Compound
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-22
CFC-113
CFC-114
CFG- 115
CC14
CH3CC13
#Cl/Moleculea
3
2
1
3
2 '
1
4
3
Molecular
Weight
137.4
120.9
86.5
187.4
170.9
154.5
153.8
133.4
Relative
Efficiency .
1.09
0.75
0.428
1.017
0.594
0.187
1.103
1.185
Conversion
Factorb
1.304x10'*
0.679x10-*
0.271x10'*
0.891x10-*
0.381x10'*
0.066x10'*
1.571x10-*
1.459x10'*
* #Cl/Molecule - number of chlorine atoms per molecule.
b For each compound, the conversion factor is computed as: 5.477xlO"3
* (#Cl/Molecule) / Molecular Weight * Relative Efficiency.
Sources: Adapted from P.S. Connell, A Parameterized Numerical Fit to
Total Column Ozone Changes Calculated bv the LLNL 1-D Model of
the Troposphere and Stratosphere. Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, Livermore, California (1986). Compound lifetimes
and ozone depletion .estimates used here are from Fisher, D.A.,
Hales, C.H., Filkin, D.L., Ko, M.K.W., Sze, N.D., Connell, P.S.,
Wuebbles, D.J., Isaksen, I.S.A., Stordal, F., "Relative Effects
on Stratospheric Ozone of Halogenated Methanes and Ethanes of
Social and Industrial Interest," in AFEAS Report. 1989.
(unpublished).
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1-4
EXHIBIT 1-2
CONTRIBUTION OF PRE-1985 EMISSIONS TO
POST-1985 CHANGES IN Clz
Change in
Clx Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
ppbv
0.000
0.045
-0.079
-0.206
-0.316
-0.495
-0.571
-0.641
-0.706
-0.767
-0.823
-0.876
-0.926
-0.973
-1.017
-1.059
-1.098
-1.135
Source: Connell 1986.
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