APTD-1447
TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS
TO REDUCE
MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
IN MINNEAPOLIS
AND ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA
. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Water Programs
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
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APTD-1447
TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS
TO REDUCE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
IN MINNEAPOLIS
AND ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA
Prepared by
GCA Corporation
GCA Technology Division
Bedford, Massachusetts
Contract No. 68-02-0041
EPA Project Officer: Fred Winkler
Prepared for
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Water Programs
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
December 1972
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The APTD (Air Pollution Technical Data) series of reports is issued
by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and
Water Programs, Environmental Protection Agency, to report technical
data of interest to a limited number of readers. Copies of APTD reports
are available free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors
and grantees, and non-profit organizations as supplies permit from
the Air Pollution Techincal Information Center, Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, or may be obtained,
for a nominal cost, from the National Technical Information Service,
5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
GCA Corporation, Bedford, Massachusetts, in fulfillment of Contract
No. 68-02-0041. The contents of this report are reproduced herein
as received from GCA Corporation. The opinions, findings, and conclusions
expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the
Environmental Protection Agency.
Publication No. APTD-1447
11
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Acknowledgements
Many individuals and several organizations have been helpful in
carrying out this study; for these contributions the GCA Technology
Division extends its sincere gratitude.
Continued project direction and guidance were given by Mr. Fred
Winkler (Project Officer) and Mr. Dave Tamny of the Land Use Planning
Branch, EPA, Durham, North Carolina, and Mr. Ed. Enstrom (Co-Project
Officer) and Mr. Jack Chicca of EPA Region F.
Many members of local and state agencies supplied data and criti-
cal analysis to the study.
Wilbur Smith Associates and ABT Associates acted as subcontractors
to GCA Technology Division and supplied major input to the study especially
in the areas of traffic data, control strategies and implementation ob-
stacles .
ill
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont.)
Section Title ISS6-
Ill STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING AIR QUALITY THROUGH TRANS- III-I
PORTATION CONTROLS
A. ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING DENSITY OF III-3
TRAVEL
1. Improved Public Transit 111-3
2. Improved Transit Combined with Other Pricing III-5
Policies
3. Improved Transit Combined with Other Transpor- III-8
tation Regulations
4. Decreasing Traffic Density Through Car Pool III-9
Incentives
5. Decreasing Traffic Density through Changes 111-10
in Work Hours
6. Shuttle Bus Service 111-10
7. People-Movers (Micro-systems) III-ll
B. STRATEGIES FOR CONTROL OF EFFECTIVENESS OF EMISSION 111-13
CONTROLS AND OPERATIONAL CONDITION OF ENGINES
C. STRATEGIES RELATED TO IMPROVED TRAFFIC FLOW 111-18
D. CANDIDATE STRATEGIES FOR MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL 111-20
1. Candidate Strategies for the Minneapolis CBD 111-20
2. Candidate Strategies for the St. Paul CBD 111-23
IV OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION OF CANDIDATE CONTROLS IV-1
A. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY IV-1
B. EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES RECOMMENDED FOR MIN- IV-3
NEAPOLIS1 CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT (CBD)
1. Express Bus Service IV-3
2. CBD Fringe Parking jv_8
3. People Mover System IV-12
4. Traffic Management System IV-16
C. EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES RECOMMENDED FOR ST. PAUL IV-18
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT (CBD)
1. Central Business District Fringe Parking IV-18
2. Shuttle Bus Service IV-21
3. Auto Free Malls IV-23
4. Traffic Signal System IV-25
IV
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont.)
Section Title
V SELECTION OF TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS AND ESTIMATE
OF AIR QUALITY IMPACT
VI SURVEILLANCE REVIEW PROCESS
A. IMPLEMENTATION OF SELECTED CONTROL MEASURE
B. IMPACT OF CONTROL MEASURES ON TRAFFIC PATTERNS
1. Traffic Density
2. Traffic Operating Speeds
3. Travel Behavior Inventories
4. Parking Facility Inventory
5. Micro-System Circulation
C. IMPACT OF CONTROL MEASURES ON AIR QUALITY
Page
V-l
VI-1
VI-1
VI-1
VI-5
VI-5
VI-5
VI-6
VI-6
VI-7
APPENDIX A LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED ABOUT THE IMPLEMENTATION
OF CANDIDATE STRATEGIES
APPENDIX B EVALUATION OF THE CANDIDATE STRATEGY REJECTED FOR
MINNEAPOLIS-ST.PAUL: VEHICLE PERFORMANCE INSPECTION
APPENDIX C EMISSIONS WITHIN MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL CBD'S
WITHOUT CONTROL STRATEGIES
APPENDIX D EMISSIONS WITHIN URBAN ACTIVITY DISTRICTS (UAD'S) IN
MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL METROPOLITAN AREAS
APPENDIX E IMPACT OF STRATEGIES ON EMISSIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS AND
ST. PAUL CBD'S
APPENDIX F EMISSIONS WITHIN KSTP TOWER AREA WITHOUT CONTROL
STRATEGIES
APPENDIX G PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATION DATA FOR AQCR 131 FROM
WHICH VEHICLE AGE DISTRIBUTION WAS DERIVED
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Title Page
1-1 SUMMARY OF OXIDANT AIR QUALITY AND HYDROCARBON 1-6
EMISSIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS CBD
1-2 SUMMARY OF OXIDANT AIR QUALITY AND HYDROCARBON 1-7
EMISSIONS IN ST. PAUL CBD
1-3 SUMMARY OF CARBON MONOXIDE AIR QUALITY AND EMIS- 1-9
SIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS CBD
1-4 SUMMARY OF CARBON MONOXIDE AIR QUALITY AND EMIS- I-10
SIONS IN ST. PAUL CBD
II-l PREVAILING DIRECTION AND MEAN HOURLY SPEED OF WIND 11-11
(mph) FOR MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL
11-2 HIGHEST AND SECOND HIGHEST CARBON MONOXIDE LEVELS 11-18
FOR THE MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL STATIONS
II-3 MAXIMUM- 8-HR. CO CONCENTRATION (PPM) AND THE NUMBER 11-29
OF TIMES THE STANDARD WAS EXCEEDED IN MINNEAPOLIS
DURING THE PERIOD 1 JULY 1971 TO 31 JULY 1972
II-4 HIGHEST OXIDANT LEVELS OBSERVED AT MINNEAPOLIS 11-31
II-5 REGION 131 CO EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR VEHICLE 11-33
SOURCES
II-6 REGION 131 HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR 11-34
VEHICLE SOURCES
II-7 CO EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR VEHICLE SOURCES FOR 11-35
HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES
II-8 HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR VEHICLE SOURCES 11-36
FROM HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES
II-9 TRAFFIC DENSITY: FREEWAY/INTERSTATE 11-43
11-10 TRAFFIC DENSITY: PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL 11-44
11-11 TRAFFIC DENSITY: SECONDARY STREETS 11-45
11-12 SUMMARY OF CO EMISSION INFORMATION WITH NO CONTROL 11-47
STRATEGIES APPLIED FOR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF MIN-
NEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL
VI
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LIST OF TABLES (Cont.)
Table Title Page
11-13 SUMMARY OF HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS WITH NO CONTROL 11-48
STRATEGIES FOR METROPOLITAN MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL
11-14 SUMMARY OF HIGHEST 8-HOUR CO CONCENTRATIONS 11-51
11-15 SUMMARY OF HIGHEST 1-HOUR OXIDANT CONCENTRATIONS 11-56
III-l AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS FOR ALTERNATIVE TRANSIT III-6
SYSTEMS IN TWIN CITIES
III-2 SUMMARY OF THE MORE COST EFFECTIVE INSPECTION/ 111-15
MAINTENANCE PROCEDURE
III-3 EQUIPMENT AND PROCEDURES REQUIRED FOR DIAGNOSING III-16
ENGINE PARAMETER MALFUNCTIONS
IV-1 RANKING OF CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSIT TRIPS TO WORK IV-7
V-l IMPACT OF CANDIDATE STRATEGIES ON CO EMISSIONS AND V-2
AIR QUALITY IN CBD'S
VI-1 EFFECT OF RECOMMENDED CONTROL MEASURES ON VMT'S AND VI-4
TRAFFIC FLOW FOR THE MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL CBD'S
Vl i
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LIST OF FIGURES
Title Z&Z-
Percent frequency of wind direction; percent calm 11-12
given in center circle.
II-2 Hourly frequency of wind speeds less than eight 11-12
miles per hour.
II-3 Diurnal variation in average 1-hour carbon monoxide 11-19
concentration at KSTP and Minneapolis - Aug. 16 -
Summer 1971.
II-4 Diurnal variation in average 1-hour carbon monoxide 11-20
concentration at KSTP and Minneapolis - Nov. 12 -
Fall 1972.
II-5 Diurnal variation in average 1-hour carbon monoxide 11-21
concentration at KSTP, Minneapolis and St. Paul -
Feb. 12 - Winter 1972.
II-6 Diurnal variation in average 1-hour carbon monoxide 11-22
concentration at KSTP, Minneapolis and St. Paul -
May 14 - Spring 1972.
II-7 Seasonal weekly maximum 1-hour carbon monoxide concen- 11-23
tration at Minneapolis and St. Paul.
II-8 Diurnal variation of average 1-hour CO concentration 11-24
with meteorological conditions during the highest and
second highest peaks.
II-9 Diurnal variation of the maximum 8-hour carbon monoxide 11-25
concentration at Station 8 - Minneapolis (July '71 -
June '72).
11-10 Weekly 1-hour maximum total oxidant concentration at 11-26
Minneapolis.
11-11 Diurnal variation of the maximum and average 1-hour 11-30
ozone concentration for July - Sept. 1971 at KSTP
Station, by EPA.
Vlll
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LIST OF FIGURES (Cont.)
Figure Title Page
11-12 Vehicular traffic flow for the city of Minneapolis. 11-39
11-13 Vehicular traffic flow for the city of St. Paul. 11-40
11-14 Projected 1977 CO air quality for Minneapolis CBD. 11-54
11-15 Projected 1977 CO air quality for St. Paul CBD. 11-55
IV-1 Research Methodology. IV-1
VI-1 Surveillance Review Milestones - Minneapolis IV-2
VI-2 Surveillance Review Milestones - St. Paul VI-3
VI-3 Affect of control measures on CO Air Quality for VI-8
Minneapolis CBD
VI-4 Affect of control measures on CO Air Quality for VI-9
St. Paul CBD
IX
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I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
A. BACKGROUND
States were required to submit implementation plans by January 30,
1972, that contained control strategies demonstrating how the national
ambient air quality standards would be achieved by 1975. Many urban
areas could not achieve the carbon monoxide and oxidant air quality
standards by 1975 or even 1977 through the expected emission reductions
from the 1975 exhaust systems control. Major difficulty was encountered
by many states in the formulation of implementation plans that included
transportation control strategies (including, for example, retrofit
and inspection, gaseous fuel conversions, traffic flow improvements, in-
creased mass transit usage, car pools, motor vehicle restraints, and work
schedule changes.) Because of the complex implementation problems associated
with transportation controls, states were granted until February 15, 1973, to
study and to select a combination of transportation controls that demonstrated
how the national air quality standards would be achieved and maintained by 1977,
B. PURPOSE, SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF STUDY
The purpose of the study reported on herein was to identify and
develop transportation control strategies that will achieve the carbon
monoxide and oxidant air quality standards required to be met by Minnesota
in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area by the year 1977. The results
of the study were to help determine the initial direction that the State
of Minnesota should take in selecting feasible and effective transportation
1-1
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controls. It was anticipated that the control strategies outlined in
this study would be periodically revised in the coining years. Existing
state implementation plans were analyzed to verify and assess the
severity of the carbon monoxide and oxidant pollutant problems, and the
most promising transportation controls and their likely air quality impact
were determined. Major implementation obstacles were noted after discus-
sions with those agencies responsible for implementing the controls, and
finally, a surveillance review process (January, 1973 - December, 1976,
inclusive) was developed for EPA to use in monitoring implementation
progress and air quality impact of transportation control strategies.
It should be noted that the study was carried out relying on the
best data and techniques available during the period of the study and
further, that a large number of assumptions were made as to the nature
of future events. The 1977 air quality predictions were based on extant
air quality data and on predicted stationary source emissions and predic-
ted traffic patterns; these predicted parameters themselves were based on
anticipated emission control techniques, anticipated growth patterns,
and the assumed outcome of unresolved legal and political decisions. Fur-
ther, the development, ranking and selection of transportation controls
were based on extant and predicted economic, sociological, institutional
and legal considerations. Finally, the surveillance process presented
in this report, although showing key checkpoints towards implementation
of the recommended controls, is in itself dependent upon the same assumed
pattern of future events.
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It should be emphasized therefore, that to the extent that the
timescale of the recommended program permits, the conclusions and recom-
mendations of this report should not be construed as a program which
must be rigidly followed until 1977, but rather it should be regarded
first, as a delineation as to what appears at the present time to be a
feasible course of action to attain air quality goals, and secondly, as
a framework upon which an optimum on-going program can be built as new
data and techniques become available, as legal and political decisions
are made, and as the assumptions as to future events are, or are not,
validated.
C. CONTENT OF REPORT
Section II of this report describes how the pollutant concentra-
tion levels which could be expected to occur in 1977 in the Minneapolis-
St. Paul area were predicted. These levels were determined by an adapta-
tion of the proportional model using motor vehicle emissions from traffic
patterns predicted for 1977 together with predicted non-vehicular emissions
for 1977 obtained from state agencies. Comparison of these predicted 1977
air pollutant concentrations with the national air quality standards
enabled the computation of the motor vehicle emissions which would result
in the air quality standards being met, and therefore, to what extent, if
any, reductions in the predicted 1977 motor vehicle emissions would be
required. In order to determine the pollutant concentration(s) which
was to serve as the basis for the proportional model, an intensive eval-
uation of all existing meteorological and air quality data was performed.
1-3
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The final determination as to the concentration value used was made in
close cooperation with representatives of local and state agencies and
of EPA.
Section III describes how candidate control strategies were de-
veloped, evaluated and ranked having regard to technical, legal, insti-
tutional, sociological and economic criteria. An important feature of
this task was the continuing interaction between, on one hand, the GCA
study team, and on the other hand, representatives of local and state
environmental planning and transportation agencies, concerned citizen's
groups, and EPA representatives.
Section TV deals in detail with the obstacles to the implementa-
tion of the candidate strategies. These obstacles include legal authori-
zation and requirements; financial requirements; management and enforcement
responsibility; political feasibility; economic impact and user acceptance.
Section V presents the rationale for selecting the optimum package
of controls necessary to achieve the required reduction in motor vehicle
emissions and also presents the confirmed effect on air quality.
Section VI presents the surveillance review process which will enable
EFA to monitor the Implementation progress end air quality impact of the
recommended strategies. A curve showing predicted air quality levels.for the
years 1973 to 1977 and beyond is presented, based on the implementation of
the recommended transportation controls. This will provide a basic indication
of the way in which air quality should improve as time passes and as controls
are implemented. In addition, important checkpoints are provided delineating
1-4
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the salient actions which must be taken in order to imlement the strategies
such as the obtaining of the necessary financing and legislation. Further,
important background assumptions, euch as growth rate are identified,
and methodologies supplied, to provide verification that these assumptions
are in fact, validated during the course of the program.
It should be noted, however, that the surveillance process thus pro-
vided is of necessity based on the probleny and the concomitant transportation
controls as they are presently perceived. An equally important part of
any surveillance process is the continuing reassessment of both the problem
itself and the appropriateness of the required controls. As was discussed
earlier in this Introduction, the present study employed a whole range of both
of extant data and techniques, and also of assumptions about the course of
future events. This data base should be continuously reviewed as new in-
formation becomes available. Thus, although the key background parameters
are called out in the Surveillance Process, a thorough and continuing re-
view of all the data, techniques and assumptions contained in this report
will be required to properly update the problem definition and appropriate
control measures.
D. SUMMARY OF PROBLEM AND REQUIRED TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS
1. Oxidant Air Quality and Hydrocarbon Emissions
The one hour average oxidant air quality standard will be
achieved by 1977 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan areas, includ-
ing the two CBD's as seen in Tables 1-1 and 1-2. This standard will be
1-5
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TABLE 1-1
SUMMARY OF OXIDANT AIR QUALITY AND HYDROCARBON
EMISSIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS CBD
A. Area = 2.2 sq. miles
B. Hydrocarbon Emissions (kg/12 hrs) and oxidant levels (ppm)
1977
Without
_^____ 1971 Strategy
Vehicle Emissions 3,560 1,720
Non-Vehicular Emissions 1,540 1,840
Total Emissions 5,100 3,560
Oxidant level (1-hr
average) 0.114 < 0.08
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TABLE 1-2
SUMMARY OF OXIDANT AIR QUALITY AND HYDROCARBON
EMISSIONS IN ST. PAUL CBD
A. Area = 0.8 sq. miles
B. Hydrocarbon Emissions (kg/12 hrs) and oxidant levels (ppm)
Vehicle Emissions
Non-Vehicular Emissions
Total Emissions
1971
1,290
560
1,850
1977
Without
Strategy
620
670
1,290
Oxidant level (1-hr
average)
0.114
< 0.08
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achieved as a result of the hydrocarbon emission reductions obtained
from the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program. In determining that
the oxidant standard would be achieved by 1977, GCA took the conserva-
tive approach of not considering the application of non-vehicular control
strategies for hydrocarbons. With the application of such non-vehicular
control strategies, the achievement of the oxidant standard by 1977 would
be further assured.
2. Carbon Monoxide Air Quality and Emissions
8-hour average CO air quality standards will be achieved by
1977 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area with the exception of
the Minneapolis CBD and St. Paul CBDfwith the CO emission reductions ob-
tained from the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program. Tables 1-3 and 1-4
summarize the emissions and air quality in the two CBD's with and without
the application of the recommended control strategies.
3. Control Strategies
The following Transportation Control strategies are recom-
mended and their impact is summarized in Tables 1-3 and 1-4.
MINNEAPOLIS CBD
Strategy 1: Fringe parking combined with people mover system
estimated to reduce 1977 light duty VMT's by 8%.
Strategy 2: Traffic surveillance and control estimated to in-
crease average speed in Minneapolis CBD from 14 mph
to 20 mph by 1977.
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TABLE 1-3
SUMMARY OF CARBON MONOXIDE AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS CBD
A. Area = 2.2 sq. miles
B. CO emissions (kg/12 hrs) and air quality levels (ppm)
1971
Vehicle Emissions 27,960
Non-Vehicular
Emissions 240
Total Emissions 28,200
CO level (8-hr
average) 18.9
1977
W ithout
Strategy
14,116
284
14,400
9.7
1977*
With
Strategy #1
Only
13,316
284
13,600
9.1
1977*
With
Strategies
#1 & #2
10,016
284
10,300
6.9
Without
Strategies
1978 1979
11,912 10,008
288 292
12,200 10,300
8.2 6.9
See text (Section IDS) for description of control strategies.
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TABLE 1-4
SUMMARY OF CARBON MONOXIDE AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS IN ST. PAUL CBD
A. Area = 0.8 sq. miles
B. CO emissions (kg/12 hrs) and air quality (ppm)
M
1
I-1
O
1971
Vehicle Emissions 10,013
Non-Vehicular
Emissions 87
Total Emissions 10,100
CO level (8-hr 18.6
average)
1977
Without
Strategy
5,097
103
5,200
9.5
1977 *
With
Strategy #1
Only
4,697
103
4,800
8.8
1977 *
With
Strategies
#1 & #2
3,597
103
3,700
6.8
1978
4,295
105
4,400
8.1
Without
Strategies
1979
3,594
106
3,700
6.8
See text (Section I D 3) for description of control strategies.
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ST. PAUL CBD
Strategy 1: Fringe parking combined with shuttle bus service
estimated to reduce 1977 light duty VMT's by 10%.
Strategy 2: Traffic signal system estimated to increase average
speed in St. Paul CBD from 12 mph to 18 mph by 1977
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II. VERIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF AIR POLLUTION PROBLEM
A. OUTLINE OF METHODOLOGY
The basic procedure employed was to develop, for each city,
pollutant concentration levels which could be expected in 1977 without
the application of transportation controls. Pollutant levels were deter-
mined by the proportional model using non-vehicular emissions supplied
by state agencies and using vehicular emissions based on traffic data
developed during the course of this study. More sophisticated techniques
could not be employed due to the lack of suitable extant calibrated dif-
fusion models, and the short time period of the contract which precluded
the development of a suitable model and the required inputs. Comparison
of potential 1977 air quality levels with the appropriate standard gave
the allowable motor vehicle emissions in 1977, which in turn formed the
basis for the development of transportation control strategies.
Emissions from non-vehicular sources were obtained from state
implementation plans updated as required from available information sup-
plied by state agencies. Emissions from vehicular sources were computed
following the recommendations given in EPA draft publication An Interim
Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation by David S. Kircher and Don-
ald P. Armstrong, dated October 1972. Air quality data for each sensor
within the city area was reviewed and evaluated in close cooperation with
In this discussion, the word city is used to denote the urban area
covered by the study and is not restricted to the area within the political
limits of the city.
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state and local agencies. The instrumental method and sensor location
was studied and records of instrument maintenance and calibration examined
so as to identify questionable readings. Meteorological records were
then examined and compared with seasonal and diurnal variations in air
quality levels. Finally the pollutant concentrations which would form the
basis for the proportional rollback calculations were decided upon in
concert with state and local agencies and EPA representatives. The year
in which this concentration level occurred defined the base year for the
proportional rollback calculations.
Because of the differences involved, the detailed method-
ologies for carbon monoxide and oxidants are presented separately below.
1. Methodology for Carbon Monoxide
Because ambient concentrations of carbon monoxide at any
given location appear to be highly dependent on carbon monoxide emissions
in the near vicinity, it was felt that some justification existed for a
modification of the proportional model. It was felt that in order to re-
duce ambient CO levels in, for example, a central business district (CBD),
it would be more appropriate to roll back CO emissions in the CBD itself,
rather than the entire air quality region. The assumption was therefore
made that pollutant concentration in any given zone was directly propor-
tional to the emission rate of that pollutant emission within that zone.
Accordingly, each city area was divided into Urban Activity Districts
(UAD's) - about the size of the central business district (CBD) in the
center of the city with increasingly larger UAD's towards the suburban
II-2
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areas. These Urban Activity Districts are the same as those utilized
by the Metropolitan Council, the planning agency for the seven counties
comprising AQCR 131.
An emission density/concentration ratio (e/c ratio) was assigned
to the sensor located in downtown Minneapolis, the e/c ratio being based
on the total CO emission density (expressed in kg/sq. mile/12 hrs.) for
the base year within the Minneapolis CBD, and the CO concentration value
which formed the basis of the proportional rollback computations. Based
on the e/c ratio so obtained, the maximum allowable emission density was
derived which corresponded to the national air quality level to be
achieved (i.e., 9 ppm for an 8-hour average). A map showing the CO emis-
sion densities for each UAD was then prepared for the year 1977, based on
the predicted vehicular and non-vehicular emissions for that year.
Vehicular emissions were based on predicted traffic patterns in the ab-
sence of any transportation controls imposed in order to meet national
air quality standards for CO (the "no strategy case"). Non-vehicular
emissions for the years of interest were obtained from state implementa-
tion plans and state agencies, and take into account predicted growth.
Non-vehicular control strategies "for CO, however, were not considered in
predicting 1977 CO emissions primarily because of the small contribution
of the non-vehicular emissions to total CO emissions (~ 1%).
From this map, the zones in which emissions exceeding the
maximum allowable density were identified, and the level of emission re-
ductions necessary to meet the CO standard were determined.
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2. Discussion of Methodology for Carbon Monoxide
a. Modified Proportional Model
Modified proportional model applications and the limita-
tions of the conventional proportional rollback method have been well
documented and reviewed and need not be discussed further here. The
technique used in the present study was an extension of the conventional
rollback technique to the extent that it was assumed first, that the con-
stant of proportionality between emissions and concentration may be de-
rived from emissions emanating from the relatively small area around the
sensor (the traffic zone), and second, that this constant of proportion-
ality (the emission/concentration ratio) could be applied to determine
pollutant concentrations in other zones of comparable area on the basis
of the pollutant emissions in those zones.
Some justification of the first assumption can be found,
JL •j'—r-
for example, in recent work of Hanna and Gifford who demonstrate the
dominance of urban pollution patterns by the distribution of the local
area sources. The success of their urban diffusion model, in which con-
centration is simply directly proportional to the area source strength
Noel de Nevers. Rollback Modeling, Basic and Modified. Draft Document,
EPA, Durham, N.C. (August 1972).
*
Hanna, S.R., "A Simple Method of Calculating Dispersion from Urban Area
Sources." J. APCA 21, Ilk-Ill (December 1971).
**
Gifford, F.A., "Applications of a Simple Urban Pollution Model," (paper
presented at the Conference on Urban Environment and Second Conference
on Biometeorology of the Amer. Meteor. Soc., October 31 - November 2, 1972,
Philadelphia, Pa.).
II-4
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and inversely proportional to wind speed, is attributed largely to the
relatively uniform distribution of emission within an urban area and
the rate at which the effect of an area source upon a given receptor
decreases with distance. In the proportional model, meteorological
effects, such as wind speed, are assumed to be duplicated over one-
year periods. The validity of the second assumption depends, in large
part, upon the extent to which diffusion and transport parameters are
uniform from zone to zone - a factor which could not be investigated
because of the constraints of the program. Thus, it was felt that, in
the absence of a more sophisticated technique, the use of this extension
to the proportional model was justified first, to obtain some assessment
as to whether the existing sensors were located in the hot-spots, and
second, to obtain some assurance that transportation strategies intended
to reduce emission densities in one zone (to the level required to meet
ambient standards) did not increase emission densities to unacceptable
levels in adjacent zones.
As might be expected, where an urban area had several
sensors, the emission concentration ratios were widely different and
this served to underline the fundamental limitations of the technique
employed. An implicit assumption in the technique employed was that the
air quality in a traffic zone could be fairly represented by one concen-
tration level and that this level depended only upon the average emission
density within that zone. The two major factors mitigating against this
assumption are:
II-5
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(a) Emission densities are not uniform across
even a small traffic zone.
(b) Concentration levels are not uniform across
the traffic zone partly because of the lack
of uniformity of emission density and partly
because the point surface concentrations are
affected by micrometerology and microtopo-
graphy as well as emission density.
Considerable judgment had to be used, therefore, both in the derivation
of e/c ratios and in their subsequent use. In heavily trafficked down-
town areas the variation was judged not to be too great, so that the
single recorded concentration might reasonably be expected to be repre-
sentative of the zone's air quality and emission density. However, in
suburban zones having overall low traffic densities, sensors
are often placed at very localized hot spots, such as a traffic circle,
so that the recorded concentration levels were neither representative of
the overall air quality nor of the overall emission density in that zone.
Accordingly, e/c ratios were generally derived from sen-
sors in the central areas of the cities and applied to suburban areas for
the prediction of 1977 concentration levels. This procedure gave air
quality levels which were generally representative of the suburban zone.
However, it must be realized that control strategies based on this pro-
cedure, while they may ensure that the overall air quality in a suburban zone
will not exceed ambient standards, do not preclude the occurrence of
higher concentrations in very localized hot spots such as might occur in
the immediate vicinity of a major traffic intersection.
11-6
-------
b. Seasonal and Diurnal Variations
The carbon monoxide concentration level chosen as the
basis for the base year e/c ratio in any zone was the highest valid
8-hour average observed during the base year. The 1-hour average either
never exceeded the standard or was very much closer to the standard than
the 8-hour average, so that controls required to meet the 8-hour standard
would also result in the 1-hour standard being met. Motor vehicle emis-
sions over 24 hours, 12 hour and max. 8-hour periods were compared
with sensor readings and the most appropriate period of time selected
on which to base calculations of emission density. Although seasonal
variations in readings were noted, traffic data was not available on a
seasonal basis, so that vehicle emissions were based on annual average
work day traffic data.
c. Background Concentrations
Background concentration levels of CO were not taken
into account. Where a zone was located near a large point source, simple
"worst case" diffusion calculations were performed to assess the effect
of the point source on the zone. In all cases, it was found that this
contribution was negligible. Where a zone actually contained a large
point source such as UAD 93 in which the St. Paul Airport is located, its
emissions were found to be much greater than automotive emissions within
the zone and any problem in that zone was regarded as due primarily to
the stationary source.
II-7
-------
3. Methodology and Discussion for Oxidants
The technique employed for oxidants was basically the same
as has just been described for CO. Even though there is a significant
length of time required for the formation of oxidants from hydrocarbon
emissions, the GCA staff felt that the areas of high emission density
i.e., the Minneapolis and St. Paul CBD areas, were the primary cause of
excessive oxidant concentrations observed anywhere in the metropolitan
area.
The reductions in hydrocarbon emissions necessary to achieve
oxidant ambient standards were obtained from Appendix J, Federal Register
of August 14, 1971.
II-8
-------
B. DISCUSSION OF 1971 AIR POLLUTION LEVELS
1. Background
The Implementation Plan submitted to EPA by the State of
Minnesota (MPCA) showed that the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul can-
not meet the more stringent 8-hour average national ambient CO standard
by 1975. The Plan did show, however, that the Photochemical Oxidant
standard can be met by 1975 throughout the state. EPA has, as discussed
earlier in this report granted MPCA a two-year extension to achieve the
CO standard by the application of appropriate transportation control
strategies. This section of the report reviews and analyzes the CO and
photochemical oxidant air quality data contained in the Implementation
Flan as well as collected after the submission of the Plan, to assess the
reductions required from motor vehicle emissions to achieve the air quality
standards for both CO and photochemical oxidants by 1977.
2. The Natural Features of Minneapolis-St. Paul
a. General
The Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan area is situated
on a gently rolling plain with many lakes and ponds, where the Minnesota
and St. Croix Rivers intersect the Mississippi River. The general level
of the land is less than 1000 feet above sea level. This physiological
feature is favorable to the dispersion of contaminants through diffusion
and other favorable climatic conditions.
The type of climate is controlled by the interrelation-
ship of the continental polar air and warm moist air from the Gulf of
II-9
-------
Mexico. The results are wide variations in temperature and a general
tendency to reach the extremes in all climatic features. Th re are great
seasonal temperature variations ranging from very cold in the winter to
very warm in the summer. The average mean temperature for the four
seasons for the period 1931 to 1955 was: winter 14°F, spring 42 F, sum-
mer 68°F, and fall 46°F.
b. Meteorology
The three conditions of low wind speeds, temperature in-
versions and condensation, particularly affect the dispersion of a con-
taminant. A simultaneous occurrence of all three results in severe levels
of air pollution.
The wind speed in the Minneapolis -St. Paul area averages
just little over 10 miles per hour with little variation in monthly aver-
ages as seen in Table II-l. Figure II-l shows that the predominant wind
prevails from the northwest in winter and southeast in summer. Lower wind
speeds are more frequent at night, prevailing at less than 8 miles per hour
from 40 to 50 percent of the time (Figure II-2). In the summer, wind speeds
are higher than in other seasons during the day and lower during the night.
Temperature inversions usually occur at night and more
frequently in the winter when the sky is clear and the wind speed is low.
Clear skies allow the earth's surface to radiate and cool at a fast rate,
thereby cooling the air near its surface and restricting vertical mixing
with the warmer lighter air above it. Low wind speeds also prevent mixing
and dispersion of the contaminant. These inversions contribute to
11-10
-------
TABLE II-l
PREVAILING DIRECTION AND MEAN HOURLY SPEED OF WIND (mph)
FOR MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
NW
NW
NW
NW
SE
SE
10.
10.
11.
12.
11.
11.
6
9
6
7
6
1
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
SE
SE
S-SE
SE
NW
NW
9.5
9.4
10.5
10.9
11.6
10.8
11-11
-------
Wind Speed in
miles per hour
less than 8
8 or more
Figure II-1. Per cent frequency of wind direction
Per cent calm given in center circle
06 12 IB 24
HOUR OF DAY
Figure II-2.
Hourly Frequency of Wind Speed* Less than Eight Mile* Per Hour
11-12
-------
the high levels of air pollution around midnight. Carbon monoxide accum-
ulates throughout the heavy traffic on rush hours and the light traffic
in the early night hours.
The third condition, condensation, either above as clouds
or close to the earth's surface as fog, limits solar heating and decreases
the vertical circulation. The presence of fog usually prolongs the inver-
sion making the situation worse. However, heavy fogs usually do not last
longer than 24 hours and occur about 10 to 20 times per year.
Meteorological conditions are important not only in the
transport and diffusion of carbon monoxide, but also in the rate of forma-
tion of photochemical oxidants. As a consequence, two periods of the
year require special attention: the fall-winter period for CO and the
spring-summer period for photochemical oxidSnts. In the fall-winter
months, when stagnant conditions occur more frequently, maximum CO con-
centrations may be expected. However, during this period the rate of
formation of photochemical oxidants is slow, keeping the concentration
low. Photochemical oxidants, which are formed by complex chemical reac-
tions with hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, increase as light intensity
increases. Thus higher concentrations are higher in the late spring and
summer seasons when solar radiation is most intense.
3. Location and Type of Instrumentation
Air quality is monitored at three stations in the Minneapolis-
St. Paul area: downtown St. Paul, downtown Minneapolis and at KSTP, a
11-13
-------
ratio station which is between the two cities. While CO was measured at
all three stations, oxidants were only measured continuously at down-
town Minneapolis for the period 1971-1972. The location of each station
and the instrumentation for CO and oxidants follows below.
a. Local Station No. 1 - KSTP
A trailer is located about 20 feet from Bedford Street,
a side street off the heavily traveled University Avenue. The funneling
port above the trailer is well exposed and the air flow is not influenced
by nearby structures. Air quality, however, could be influenced by the
emptying and filling of the KSTP parking lot and the trucking operations
from the Century Trucking platform, which is located about 500 feet away.
During the period from July 1, 1971 to August 15, 1972
a Beckman 315A non-dispersive infrared analyzer with an optical filter
was used to monitor the CO. This is the EPA reference method. The data
is collected once per minute and is telemetered back to MPCA for reduction.
The instrument is well-maintained and the data should be reliable. The
data have to be corrected for the 5 ppm offset and the moisture interfer-
ence. The Beckman correction factor was 1 ppm for a 3.2 mole percent H.,0
content.
A Beckman Air Quality Acrylizer was used to measure
total oxidants for only the first two months of 1972. Not being adopted
by EPA as a reference method, the instrument was discontinued when the
pump failed. Presently a McMillan instrument which uses the chemilumin-
escent dry technique is being installed.
11-14
-------
b. Location Station No. 2 - Downtown Minneapolis
The station is located in the Minneapolis Public Health
Building on the corner of 4th Street and 3rd Avenue. Air is sampled about
12 feet above the main doorway through one of the metal strips on the side
of the building. Being on the side of the building the air flow is restric-
ted to 180 . Streamlines are mainly from the corner of the two streets,
whose curbs are about 15 and 30 feet away. Both streets are three or four
lanes one way and are frequently traveled especially during the morning
and evening commuting time.
A Beckman 315AL non-dispersive infrared CO Analyzer with
a desiccant is operated continuously in the laboratory. The instrument
is well maintained and the desiccant is changed daily or on alternate
days depending on its color. The data are recorded on strip-chart paper,
averaged hourly by eyeball and sent to MPCA. This instrument is based on
an EPA reference method.
A Beckman Air Quality Acrylizer was used to measure total
oxidants for the 1971-72 period. This instrument is not based on an EPA
reference method.
c. Local Station No. 3 - Downtown St. Paul
The station is located on the corner of ElOth Street
and Minnesota Street. A pipe sampler emerges from an old brick building
at about 60 feet above a parking lot with a 50-car capacity. The air
flow is restricted by the building. Therefore the sampled air comes
mostly from the parking lot and the streets whose curbs are about 100 feet
away. Both streets are frequently used.
11-15
-------
A MSA Lira non-dispersive infrared CO analyzer was used
to collect the data at one-minute intervals. Up to August 1972 a method
to correct the moisture interference was not used. Recently a refrigerator
was installed to eliminate the moisture in the sampling air stream. Since
February, 1972, the data were telemetered to MPCA with no correction for
offset or for moisture interference. The new system is closely watched
and maintained, but the old system without the refrigeration system was
not accurate according to the computer programmer and the engineer of the
monitoring section. The data, however, can still be utilized to show radia-
tive diurnal and seasonal variations as shown in Figures II-5 and II-6.
4. Review of Air Quality Data
a. General
CO and total oxidant concentrations observed at the three
stations during the one-year period from 1 July 1971 through 30 June 1972
have been reviewed and compared. The ozone data from an independent EPA
study are presented for support and comparison. In addition seasonal and
daily variations for the period have been examined to further define the
problem and to provide guidance in developing transportation control
strategies.
b. CO Data
One-hour averages of CO were available on computer cards
for the Minneapolis and St. Paul stations, making it possible to obtain
the 8-hour averages. But the data from KSTP was on books from the
teletype output, requiring a thorough search for high data values. When
11-16
-------
the one-hour CO concentration exceeded 15.3 ppm, which was the third high-
est value measured at the Minneapolis station, the associated 8-hour average
was calculated.
Table II-2 gives the highest and second highest 1-hour
and 8-hour CO concentrations observed during the period from 1 July 1971
through 30 June 1972 and during the year 1970, which was the period used
for the state's Implementation Plan. The 1-hour average was highest in
1970 while the 8-hour averages were higher during the July 1, 1971 -
June 30, 1972 period. It is interesting to note the excellent agreement
between the CO monitors at station KSTP and downtown Minneapolis. For
example, the highest CO concentrations occurred on the same day at both
stations on November 11, Figures II-3 through 11-10 discussed below fur-
ther illustrate this agreement.
Figures II-3 - 6 compare the diurnal concentration on
typical days of each season for the three stations. Data were not avail-
able from the St. Paul station for 1971 so only 1972 data are presented.
Examination of these data show that the monitors are generally in relative
agreement as to the time during which peak concentrations occur. Figure
II-4 illustrates this phenomenon especially well.
The period November 10 through November 17 is very impor-
tant because within this period the highest and second highest one-hour
and 8-hour average CO concentration occurred at both the Minneapolis and
KSTP monitoring stations. Figure II-8 shows for the first 7 days of this
period the one-hour averages for both KSTP and downtown Minneapolis, and
11-17
-------
TABLE II-2
HIGHEST AND SECOND HIGHEST CARBON MONOXIDE LEVELS
FOR THE MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL STATIONS
(Values are in Parts per Million by Volume)
DATA SOURCE
Station #1
(July '71
Station #2
(July '71
Station #3
- KSTP
- June '72)
- MPLS
- June '72)
- St. Paul
HIGHEST
1 Hour
(Date)
35.8
(11-11-71)
33.0
(11-10-71)
17.5
(1-18-72)
(ppm)
8 Hour
(Date)
26.2
(11-11-71)
18.9
(11-11-71)
*
2nd HIGHEST (ppm)
1 Hour
(Date)
27.2
(11-15-71)
29.0
(9-22-71)
29.0
(11-17-71)
14.0
(2-10-72)
8 Hour
(Date)
21.6
(11-15-71)
17.5
(11-10-71)
*
(Jan. '71 - June '72)
Station #2 - MPLS
(Jan '70 - Dec. '70)
Used in Implementation Plan
44.6
**
17.1
Not calculated from one-hour averages because of inaccuracies in data.
*
Values used in Implementation Plan.
11-18
-------
II 13
TIME (CST)
15
17
19
21
23
Figure II-3. Diurnal Variation In Average 1-hour Carbon Monoxide Concentration at KSTP and
Minneapolis - Aug. 16 - Sunnier 1971
-------
II
TIME (CST)
13
15
17
19
21
23
Figure 11-4. Diurnal Variation in Average 1-hour Carbon Monoxide Concentation
ae KSTP and Minneapolis - Nov. 12 - Fall 1972
-------
TIME, (CST)
FiRure II-5. Diurnal VaTiation in Average 1-hour Carbon Monoxide Concentration
at KSTP, Minneapolis, and St. Paul - Feb. 12 - Winter 1972
-------
24
23
20
1,8
a
J6
z
2 14
s
£ 12
o 10
NO. 2 MINN.
NO. 3 ST. PAUL
3.
15
17
19 21
TIME, (CST)
23
Figure II-6. Diurnal Variation In Average 1-hour Carbon Monoxide Concentration at KSTP,
Minneapolis and St. Paul - May 14 - Spring 1972
-------
to
LO
40
E
o.
o.
O
I-
UJ
o
z
o
o
o
o
30
20
10
STATION 2 - MINN.
SUMMER
FALL
STATION 3 - ST. PAUL
WINTER
SPRING
24 28 32 36 40
I JUL '71
44 48 52
I JAN '72
8 12 16 20 24 28 32
I JUL'72
Figure H-7. seasonal Weekly tfexirauHi 1-hour Carbon Monoxide Concentration at MtnneagollB and St. Paul
-------
60
OBSERVATIONS AT 3HR INTERVALS
40
20
I I I I I I I I
1 I i I I 1
9 12
036
21 0 3 6
21 0 3 6
21 0 3 6
21 0 3 6
21 0369
I I I I I i I l I I I I I I T—'
NOV 10 0 NOV 11
NOV 12
NOV 13
NOV 13
NOV 14
0 NOV 15
Figure II-8. Diurnal Variation of Average 1-hour CO Concentration with Meteorological Conditions During
the Highest and Second Highest Peak*.
-------
E
o.
Q.
<
o:
o
o
8
24
22
20
18
16
I
12
10
8
6
4
2
FALL (S, 0,N)
SUMMER (J.J.A)
SPRING (M, A.M)
WINTER,
{D.J.F)
I
I
I
Figure II-9.
II 13
TIME, (CST)
15
17
19
21
23
Diurnal Variation of the Maximum 8-hour Carbon Monoxide Concentration at
Station 8 - Minneapolis (July '71 - June '72)
-------
E
3 o.io
z
LL)
O
O
o
o
X
o
o
UJ
o
o
o
Q.
0.08
0.06
0.04
Q02
SUMMER
FALL
WINTER
SPRING
24 | 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8
/ JULY '71 I JAN '72
12 16 20 24 \ 28 32
/ JULY '72
Figure I
1-10. Weekly 1-hour tfaxlmum Total Oxidant Concentration at Minneapolis.
-------
the meteorological conditions of temperature, relative humidity and wind
speed and direction. These data were obtained from the climatological
summaries measured at the Minneapolis -St. Paul Airport. The CO concen-
tration pattern for the two stations is very similar. The concentration
fluctuates more at downtown Minneapolis and it usually peaks during the
commuting hours. The pattern is highly influenced by the weather as will
be discussed below.
During the time period in Figure II-8, the effects of the
three conditions that severely influence the level of air pollution can
be seen. The high peaks occur when there is no wind. The average CO
concentration was less than 7 ppm when the wind was blowing over 10 mph.
The first and highest peak of the period was caused by low wind speeds
and a temperature inversion during the night. The second and third peaks
occurred during early night when the wind speed prevailed at less than
6 mph, and temperatulres decreased considerably. The second highest peak
occurred around 9:00 PM on November 15 when fog was present, light winds
prevailed, and temperatures decreased. Because of poor mixing, the even-
ing and early night vehicle emissions accumulated over the area causing
the high CO level.
Figure II-9 presents a summary of the diurnal variation
of maximum 8-hour CO concentrations in downtown Minneapolis for each of
the four seasons from July 1971 through June 1972. The diurnal pattern
is similar in all seasons except for the fall's amplitude during the
night. This significant difference can be misleading because these large
11-27
-------
8-hour concentrations only occurred a f ew times in the fall, specifically
from 10:00 PM to 6:00 AM. The concentration falls from about midnight
to six o'clock in the morning, rises during the day when vehicle activity
increases and persists through the night only with poor dispersion condi-
tions. A higher rise is observable during the commuting hours.
Several other conclusions about the diurnal and seasonal
variation can be obtained from Table II-3, which gives the highest 8-hour
concentration observed during each hour of the day for each month. The
federal standard of 9 ppm is frequently exceeded from the afternoon to
midnight. The number of times the standard is exceeded increases from
1 at 7:00 AM to a maximum of 76 at 6:00 PM, and decreases thereafter.
During the fall-winter months, especially in October, the standard is
frequently exceeded.
c. Total Oxidant Data
Total oxidant data were generated only from downtown
Minneapolis and summary data from this station were available as average
daily and maximum one-hour concentrations. Figure 11-11 is a plot of the
weekly maximum one-hour oxidant concentration. Although the variance is
high, because sky cover varied, the higher total oxidants concentrations
happen in the spring and summer months when solar radiation is most in-
tense. The standard of .08 ppm was exceeded just a few times during the
year; specifically July 5-20, 1971.
A special study of ozone levels in the Minneapolis -St.
Paul area was carried out by EPA in conjunction with state and local
11-28
-------
TABLE II-3
MAXIMUM 8-HR. CO CONCENTRATION (PPM) AND THE NUMBER OF TIMES THE
STANDARD WAS EXCEEDED IN MINNEAPOLIS DURING THE PERIOD 1 JULY 1971 to
31 JULY 1972
(Entry is at hour ending 8-hour period)
HOUR
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Ot
09
10
M "
t ]
1 12
to
VD 13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
33
24
HU
•0. TDC3
STD. UCEIM
JUl
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
10 (4)
10 (5)
11 (7)
12 (7)
12 (8)
12 (7)
12 (6)
11 (6)
11 (4)
10 (2)
9 (1)
12.0
ED (57)
AUG
8
7
7
7
8
7
6
6
6
7
7
8
9 (1)
10 (1)
10 (1)
10 (2)
11 (5)
11 (9)
11 (6)
11 (5)
10 (5)
10 <4)
10 (3)
» (1)
11.1
(43)
SOT
11 (1)
10 (1)
9 <1>
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9 (1)
10 <2>
10 (3)
10 (2)
11 (4)
13 (4)
13 (5)
12 (4)
12 (5)
13 (4)
13 (2)
13 (1)
13.1
(«)
OCI
10
11 (2)
10 (2)
11.6
(41)
MR
10 (2)
9
8
7
6
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
10 (1)
11 (5)
11 (6)
12 (6)
12 (8)
12 (8)
13 (8)
12 (8)
12 (7)
11 (6)
10 (1)
11 (1)
12.6
(70)
API
7
7
6
6
6
6
1
8
10 (1)
10 (1)
11 (1)
12 (2)
13 (2)
13 (5)
13 (5)
12 (3)
13 (3)
13 (3)
13 (3)
12 <2)
12 (1)
11 (1)
11 (1)
9 (1)
13.0
(35)
»Y
9
9
9
9
8
7
8
8
8
9
10 (1)
10 (1)
11 (1)
12 (1)
12 (1)
12 (1)
12 (1)
12 (1)
12 (3)
12 (3)
12 (2)
11 (2)
11 (1)
10 (1)
12.4
(20)
jme
11 (i)
11 (i)
11 (i)
11 (i)
11 (i)
11 (i)
11 (i)
11 (i)
10 (2)
9 (1)
10 (2)
10 (5)
12 (6)
14 (6)
14 (7)
14 (5)
14 (9)
13 <9)
13 <8)
13 (9)
12 (9)
12 (4)
12 (3)
12 (2)
13.7
(96)
NUC
18.9
18.5
17.4
15.8
14.9
12.4
11.1
11.0
10.1
10.5
11.8
12.4
13.0
13.7
13.6
13.7
14.0
14.8
14.5
14.4
15.0
15.3
15.3
17.5
18.9
* to. TD*» Runui
UCXCDCD HAS MOT
CALCULATED
HO. OF TIKES
OVER STANDARD
(9)
(6)
(4)
(3)
(3)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(4)
(5)
(9)
(16)
(25)
(45)
(57)
(51)
(69)
(76)
(70)
(67)
(58)
(47)
(33)
(23)
I
-------
0.12
1 1 1 1 I
Figure 11-11. Diurnal Variation of the Maximum and Average 1-hour Ozone Concentration for July - Sept. 1971
at KSTP Station, by EPA.
-------
agencies for the months of July through September 1971. Using the ref-
erence method in the Federal Register, Vol. 26, No. 84, April 30, 1971,
a chemlluminescent dry technique, ambient ozone concentrations were meas-
ured continuously at the KSTP monitoring site. The data showed that the
standard was exceeded only once at 0.095 ppm. This agrees with the few
times exceeded by the (total oxidant) wet technique, which normally
gives slightly higher readings. Figure 11-11 plots the maximum and aver-
age 1-hour diurnal variation for the three months during which the EPA
study was conducted. Both curves have higher concentrations when solar
radiation is intense.
Table II-4 lists the highest and second highest oxidant
levels observed from the EPA study,and from the data generated at the
Minneapolis station. The first and second highest data points measured
in downtown Minneapolis are believed to be high because the instrument
was shut down several times in July 1971.
TABLE II-4-
HIGHEST OXIDANT LEVELS OBSERVED AT
MINNEAPOLIS
Sampling Source and Period
Station #2 - MPLS
(July 1971 - June 1972)
EPA Study Station No. 1 KSTP
(July 1971 - Sept. 1971)
1-Hy Concentrations (ppm)
.114 .100
Total oxidant Total Oxidant
0.095
Ozone
.080
Ozone
11-31
-------
5. Present and Projected Non-Vehicular Source Emissions in
AQCR 131
Tables II-5 through II-8 present 1970 non-vehicular CO and
hydrocarbon emissions in Region 131 and Hennepin and Ramsey counties,
the two most populous counties in the region. These tables were developed
from the Emissions Inventory in the state of Minnesota's Implementation
Plan. Growth factors for each source category were also obtained from
the Implementation Plan and used to project emissions for both 1971 and
1977. The projected emissions for these years are also presented in these
tables.
C. DISCUSSION OF 1971 and 1977 VMT DATA
Basic data were provided by a number of cooperating agencies, par-
ticularly: the Traffic Bureau of Department of Public Works, City of St.
Paul; the Traffic Division, Public Works Department, City of Minneapolis;
the Twin Cities Area Transportation Program and its participants (Metro-
politan Council, Minnesota Highway Department, Metropolitan Transit Com-
mission and the Metropolitan Counties and Municipalities).
Specifically, the following comprise the key items used to estimate
the present vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and to project these traval mag-
nitudes to the study period:
(a) Vehicle Traffic Flow Map, City of Minneapolis, 1970
Average Daily Traffic.
(b) Traffic Volume Flow Map, City of St. Paul, 1969-1971.
(c) Travel Behavior Inventory, Twin Cities Area.
11-32
-------
TABLE II-5
REGION 131 CO EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR VEHICLE SOURCES
Growth
1970 CO Factors
Sources Emissions (Tons/yr) (1971) (1977)
X x7
Fuel Combustion
Residential
Commercial &
Institutional
Industrial
Power Plants
Process Losses
Solid Waste Disposal
Railroads
Aircraft
Total (tons/yr)
1,895
650
108
1,940
9,600
16,027
1,500
55,500
1.0176
1.054
1.039
1.039
1.028
1.018
1.021
1.042
1.130
1.445
1.309
1.309
1.213
1.133
1.157
1.334
Projected CO Emissions Assum-
ing that no control strategies
Applied
1971 (tons) 1977
1,920
685
112
2,020
9,860
16,300
1,530
57,900
2,140
940
141
2,540
11,600
18,200
1,730
74,000
87,220
90,327
111,291
-------
TABLE II-6
REGION 131 HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR VEHICLE SOURCES
Growth
1971
1970 HC
Sources Emissions (tons /yr) X
Fuel Combustion
Residential
Commercial &
Institutional
Industrial
Power Plants
Process Losses
Solid Waste Dis-
posal
Railroads
Aircraft
Hand 1 ing
Evaporative Losses
Total (tons/yr)
670
300
1,470
3,060
25,250
5,300
1,150
13,000
9,300
22,500
82 , 000
1.076
1.054
1.039
1.039
1.028
1.018
1.021
1.042
1.035
1.018
Factors
1977
x7
1.130
1.445
1.309
1.309
1.213
1.133
1.157
1.334
1.272
1.133
Projected Hydrocarbon Emis-
sions Assuming that no Con-
trol Strategies Applied (tons
1971 1977
720
316
1,530
3,180
26,000
5,390
1,175
13,580
9,630
22,900
84,421
757
434
1,920
4,000
30,600
6,010
1,330
17,360
11,850
25,000
99,261
-------
TABLE II-7
CO EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR VEHICLE SOURCES FOR HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES
Growth
1970 CO Factors
Sources Emissions (Tons/yr) (1971) (1977)
X X7
Fuel Combustion
Residential
Commercial &
Institutional
Industrial
Power Plants
Process Losses
Solid Waste Disposal
Railroads
Aircraft
1,276
453
41
1,632
9,384
10,212
640
50,542
1.0176
1.054
1.039
1.039
1.028
1.018
1.021
1.042
1.130
1.445
1.309
1.309
1.213
1.133
1.157
1.334
Projected CO Emissions Assuming
that no control strategies
Applied
1971 (tons) 1977
1,373
477
43
1,696
9,647
10,396
653
52,665
1,442
655
54
2,136
11,383
11,570
740
67,423
Total (tor.s/yr) 74,180
76,950
95,403
-------
TABLE II-8
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM NON-MOTOR VEHICLE SOURCES FROM HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES
1970 HC
Emissions
Sources (tons/yr)
Fuel Combustion
Residential
Commercial &
Institutional
Industrial
Power Plants
Process Losses
Solid Waste Dis-
posal
Railroads
Aircraft
Handling
Evaporative Losses
461
197
966
2,879
25,236
3,217
517
11,910
6,195
18,270
Growth Factors
1971 1977
x x7
1.076
1.054
1.039
1.039
1.028
1.018
1.021
1.042
1.035
1.018
1.130
1.445
1.309
1.309
1.213
1.133
1.157
1.334
1.272
1.133
Projected Hydrocarbon Emissions
Assuming that no Control Strate-
gies Applied (tons)
1971 1977
496
208
1,004
2,991
25,943
3,275
528
12,410
6,412
18,599
521
285
1,264
3,769
30,611
3,645
598
15,888
7,880
20,700
Total (tons/yr) 69,848
71,866
85,161
-------
(d) Registration Data on Motor Vehicles.
(e) Vehicular Traffic Flow in Central Business District,
Average One Hour in 1969, City of Minneapolis.
(f) Travel Speed Data.
!• Estimation of VMT in 1970
The methodology employed in estimating 1970 average daily travel
(ADT) for the Central Business Districts of Minneapolis and St. Paul, as
well as those for the Urban Activity Districts in the remaining areas of
the Twin Cities involved the use of the traffic volume maps. Basic differ-
ences in data caused slight variances in methods of calculation required.
a. Minneapolis CBD
Traffic data available for this district related flow
magnitudes on city streets as the average one-hour volumes of the 12-
hour period between 6:30am to 6:30pm in 1969. These street volumes
were converted to Vehicle-miles by multiplying by distances between in-
tersections on the map. The average hourly vehicle-miles thus obtained
was expanded to 24-hour values by multiplying by the factor 15.9, which
was derived by the Traffic Division.
b. St. Paul-CBD
Traffic flow data available for this area were in terms
of ADT volumes for major facilities determined over a period from 1969
through 1971. On the assumption that these data would average to conditions
in 1970, volumes on each link were multiplied by link distance to obtain
11-37
-------
24-hour VMT values. The sum of all link VMT's then corresponded to the
total VMT generated in the CBD.
c. Municipal Urban Activity Districts
Traffic volume maps for the cities of Minneapolis and St.
Paul are presented in Figures 11-12 and 11-13. Overlays of the standard plan-
ning areas (CBD's) were used in conjunction with these maps. Linkages on
these maps were categorized as "Freeway/Interstate" and other. The latter
category of linkages were divided in "Principal Arterials" if ADT exceeded
5000 and to "Secondary Streets" for facilities less than this volume. Link-
age distances were scaled from maps and used to convert ADT to 24-hour VMT
by these three categories.
d. Conversion of 24-hour VMT to 12-hour VMT
A conversion factor was derived for this purpose using'
expansion factors developed by the Minneapolis Traffic Division for CBD
traffic. Two factors were used. The factor for converting average hourly
volumes to 12-hour volumes was "12", while that used to convert hourly
average to 24-hour volumes was "15.9". Thus the conversion factor to
convert all 24-hour VMT volumes to 12-hour VMT volumes was:
2 Estimating 1971 and 1977 Travel
The 1970 VMT estimates were expanded using information on person-
trip data and forecasts contained in the travel behavior inventory generated
11-38
-------
VEHICULAR
TRAFFIC FLOW
CITY OF MINNEAPOLIS
Figure 11-12. Vehicular traffic flow for city of Minneapolis
11-39
-------
Figure n-13. Vehicular
traffic flow for city Of St. Paul_
-------
in the Twin Cities Area Transportation Program. The following data was ob-
tained:
Person-trips (1970)
Person-trips (1980)
10-year traval growth
= 5,095,000
6,725,000
_ 6.725.000 _
~ 5,095,000
The linear annual growth rate is therefore:
0.32
Rate =
10
or 3.2% per year.
Therefore, to expand 1970 base year data, the following relationships are
used:
VMT Base Data (1970) X 1.032 = VMT (1971)
VMT Base Data (1970) X 1.224 = VMT (1977)
3- Vehicle Type
The average vehicle mix in the traffic stream was based upon in-
formation from the respective traffic divisions as follows:
Light Duty (includes auto, taxis,
and light trucks)
Heavy Duty (includes medium and
heavy trucks)
Other (includes buses)
TOTAL
Minneapolis (%)
92.5
St. Paul (7.)
90.0
6.0
1.5
100.0
8.5
1.5
100.0
11-41
-------
4. Estimation of Traffic Density
To obtain traffic density in VMT per square mile, the area of
each urban activity district and the CBD's was obtained by t :aled measure-
ment using a planimeter. The area of each district was divided into the
VMT volume by type of acility. The resultant densities are shown in Tables
II-9 through 11-11.
5. Speed
Speeds of travel on streets and freeways were estimated from
data and information obtained from the respective city traffic organizations
as follows:
MINNEAPOLIS
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
CBD
52
53
54
55
56
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Freeways/
Interstates
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
50
45
45
40
43
45
50
50
55
55
Average Speed (mph)
Principal
Arterials
14
35
35
35
30
30
30
35
35
35
35
35
35
Secondary
Streets
N.A.
25
25
25
23
23
23
25
25
25
25
25
25
ST. PAUL
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
UAD
CBD
79
80
81
82
83
89
90
91
92
93
35-
50
48
48
48
40
40
48
50
45
N.A.
11-42
12
35
35
35
35
30
30
35
35
35
35
N.A.
25
25
25
25
23
23
25
25
25
25
-------
TABLE II -9
TRAFFIC DENSITY
FREEWAY/ INTERSTATE
Urban
Activity
District
MINNEAPOLIS
57-62(CBD)
52
53
54
55
56
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
ST. PAUL
84-88 (CBD)
79
80
81
82
83
89
90
91
92
93
Area
Square
Miles
2.2
5.28
8.60
5.04
5.48
5.96
1.40
5.56
5.60
5.20
4.08
2.60
6.20
0.8
6.00
3.12
6.60
3.20
6.88
3.84
13.48
4.48
7.28
3.80
1970
VMT
(24 hrs)
0
0
0
118,900
49,950
190,990
113,520
224.700
94 , 600
103,900
103,960
90,900
90,900
27,500
90,300
71,040
53,280
166,800
196,650
79,800
87,075
73,500
7,350
0
1971
VMT
(24 hrs)
0
0
0
122,705
51,552
197,098
117,157
231,812
97,623
107,225
107,283
93,811
93,811
28,300
93,190
73,317
54,985
172,142
202,947
82,347
89,864
75,848
7,585
0
1971
VMT Per
Sq. Mile
(24 hrs)
0
0
0
24,100
9,408
33,074
83,685
41,697
17,430
20,621
26,295
36,081
15,131
35,400
15,528
23,501
8,332
53,792
29,495
21,445
6,663
16,935
1,038
0
1977
VMT
(24 hrs)
0
0
0
145,530
61,140
233,770
138,950
275,000
115,790
127,180
127,250
111,260
111,260
33,600
110,530
86,950
65,220
204,160
240,700
97,680
106,580
89,960
9,000
0
1977
VMT Per
Sq. Mile
(24 hrs)
0
0
0
28,880
11,160
39,220
99,250
49,460
20,680
24,460
31,190
42,790
17,950
41,900
18,420
27,870
9,880
63,800
34,990
25,440
7,910
20,080
1,240
0
11-43
-------
TABLE II -10
TRAFFIC DENSITY
PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL
Urban
Activity
District
MINNEAPOLIS
57-62(CBD)
52
53
54
55
56
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
ST. PAUL
84-88 (CBD)
79
80
81
82
83
89
90
91
92
93
Area
Square
Miles
2.2
5.28
8.60
5.04
5.48
5.96
1.40
5.56
5.60
5.20
4.08
2.60
6.20
0.8
6.00
3.12
6.60
3.20
6.88
3.84
13.48
4.48
7.28
3.80
1970
VMT
(24 hrs)
377,000
134,740
367,560
224,610
351,020
284,770
57,200
385,170
188,850
120,580
124,220
148,880
179,470
110,000
189,000
84,340
161,540
156,520
309,000
67,120
188,760
161,850
216,390
119,990
1971
VMT
(24 hrs)
390,000
139,048
379,318
231,802
362,248
293,878
59,030
397,495
194,897
124,441
128,195
153,646
185,207
113,000
195,042
87,041
166,711
161,531
318,882
69,262
194,800
167,031
223,315
123,830
1971
VMT Per
Sq. Mile
(24 hrs)
177,000
26,333
44,102
45,994
66,100
49,311
42,163
71,493
34,801
23,928
31,426
59,098
29,874
142,000
32,512
27,895
25,257
50,475
46,353
18,041
14,452
37,284
30,679
32,589
1977
VMT
(24 hrs)
463,000
164,920
449,890
274,920
429,650
348,560
70,020
471,450
231,150
147,590
152,050
182,230
219,670
135,000
231,330
103,230
197,730
191,580
378,210
82,150
231,040
188,100
264,860
146,870
1977
VMT Per
Sq. Mile
(24 hrsl
210,000
31,240
52,310
54,550
78,400
58,320
50,010
84,790
41,280
28,380
37,270
70,090
35,430
168,000
38,550
33,090
29,960
59,870
54,970
21,390
17,140
41,990
36,380
38,650
11-44
-------
TABLE 11-11
TRAFFIC DENSITY
SECONDARY STREETS
(<5,000 ADT)
Urban
Activity
District
MINNEAPOLIS
57-62(CBD)
52
53
54
55
56
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
ST. PAUL
84-88 (CBD)
79
80
81
82
83
89
90
91
92
93
Area
Square
Miles
2.2
5.28
8.60
5.04
5.48
5.96
1.40
5.56
5.60
5.20
4.08
2.60
6.20
0.8
6.00
3.12
6.60
3.20
6.88
3.84
13.48
4.48
7.28
3.80
1970
VMT
(24 hrs)
0
29,160
14,710
7,650
9,810
30,760
6,400
32,630
44,810
45,120
12,980
7,240
29,750
0
27,200
16,640
55,190
25,970
68,910
1,770
28,430
29,630
31,280
30,710
1971
VMT
(24 hrs)
0
30,093
15,180
7,895
10,116
31,746
6,605
33,676
46,246
46,566
13,395
7,468
30,698
0
28,070
17,168
56,954
26,799
71,115
1,823
29,340
30,572
32,279
31,687
1971
VMT Per
Sq. Mile
(24 hrs)
0
5,703
1,765
1,571
1,843
5,325
4,714
6,062
8,254
8,952
3,288
2,871
4,956
0
4,675
5,499
8,632
8,370
10,339
475
2,173
6,828
4,432
8,341
1977
VMT
(24 hrs)
0
35,690
18,010
9,360
12,000
37,650
7,830
39,940
54,850
55,230
15,890
8,860
36,410
0
33,290
20,370
67,550
31,790
84,350
2,170
34,800
36,260
38,280
37,590
1977
VMT Per
Sq. Mile
(24 hrs)
0
6,760
2,090
1,860
2,190
6,320
5,590
7,180
9,800
109620
3,900
3,410
5,870
0
5,550
6,530
10,240
9,930
12,260
570
2,580
8,090
5,260
9,890
11-45
-------
D. ESTIMATION OF 1977 AIR QUALITY DATA
1. 1971 and 1977 Emission Densities of CO and Hydrocarbons in
Minneapolis and St. Paul Metropolitan Areas
Tables 11-12 and 11-13 indicate the emission densities of
carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in the Minneapolis and St. Paul CBD's
as well as the other 22 Urban Activity Districts (UAD) comprising the Minneapolis
and St. Paul metropolitan areas. These emission densities were developed
for the years 1971 and 1977 and include emissions from non-vehicular as
well as vehicular sources. The 1977 emission estimates were based on pro-
jected growth of both the vehicular and non-vehicular sources as well
as the effect of the Federal Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program on
automotive emissions.
a. Non-Vehicular Sources of Emissions
Tables II-7 and H-8 present the non-vehicular
emissions estimates of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in Ramsey and
Hennepin counties for the years 1971 and 1977. The following procedures
were followed to estimate non-vehicular emissions in the CBD's and UAD's
as presented in Tables II -12 and 11-13. -
Hennepin and Ramsey county CO and He emission
totals were apportioned to the Metropolitan
areas by population.
These metropolitan totals were then apportioned
to the various UAD's by geographic area
Emissions from solid waste disposal (open
burning) were not included because existing
regulations now prohibit such a practice.
11-46
-------
TABLE 11-12
SUMMARY OF CO EMISSION INFORMATION WITH NO CONTROL STRATEGIES APPLIED FOR METROPOLITAN
AREAS OF MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL
Location
Minn. Metrop.
Area; Urban
Activity Dist
57-62
-------
TABLE 11-13
SUMMARY OF HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS WITH NO CONTROL STRATEGIES APPLIED FOR METROPOLITAN MINNEAPOLIS
AND ST. PAUL
Location
Minn. Metropolitan
Area; Urban Act. Dist.:
57 62 (CBD)
52
53
54
55
56
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
St. Paul Metropolitan
Area; Urban Act. Dist.:
84 88 (CBD)
79
80
81
82
83
89
90
91
92
93
Square
Miles
2.20
5.28
8.60
5.04
5.48
5.96
1.40
5.56
5.60
5.20
4.08
2.60
6.20
0.80
6.00
3.12
6.60
3.20
6.88
3.84
13.48
4.48
7.28
3.80
Hydrocarbon Emission Density
1971
Vehicles
1,616
207
291
434
505
553
815
735
377
328
365
584
304
1,603
334
357
282
698
579
259
148
389
239
274
Other
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
703
Total
2,319
910
994
1,137
1,208
1,256
1,517
1,438
1,080
1,031
1,068
1,287
1,007
2,306
1,037
1,060
985
1,401
1,282
962
851
1,092
942
977
(kg/sq mile/12
hrs)
1977
Vehicles
783
97
136
205
237
260
382
345
177
154
i?r
273
142
779
164
164
136
343
285
127
73
185
117
135
Other
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
837
Total
1,620
934
973
1,042
1,074
1,097
1,219
1,182
1,014
991
1,008
1,110
979
1,616
1,001
1,001
973
1,180
1,122
964
910
1,022
954
972
-------
CO emissions from the St. Paul Airport were
added directly to Urban Activity District No. 93.
Hydrocarbon emissions from both the International
and St. Paul airports were apportioned over the
Minneapolis and St. Paul Metropolitan areas.
b. Vehicular Sources of Emissions
The VMT data presented in Section II C were utilized in
conjunction with the automobile age distribution in Minnesota AQCR 131
(see Appendix G) and EPA automotive emission factors to estimate CO and
hydrocarbon emissions for 1971 and 1977.
c. Discussion of Emission Densities
Examination of Tables 11-12 and 11-13 clearly indicate
that the Minneapolis and St. Paul CBD's have significantly higher CO and
hydrocarbon emission densities than other zones in the metropolitan areas.
This is primar.ily the result of a high density of slow moving vehicles in
the CBD's during the peak travel hours. The one exception is Urban Activ-
ity District 93 which contains the St. Paul airport. The CO emissions
from this airport were added directly to District 93, making the emission
density extremely high relative to the other Urban Activity Districts in
the metropolitan areas. Because this high CO emission level in UAD 93 is
due almost entirely to non-automotive sources (i.e. St. Paul airport), no
transportation control strategies for this area are recommended in this
report. Hydrocarbon emissions from the two airports because of the nature
of the reactions which generate photochemical oxidants, were not assigned
to their specific zones (the International Airport is located adjacent
11-49
-------
to Urban Activity District 69), but instead were apportioned over the
entire St. Paul and Minneapolis metropolitan areas.
2. 1977 CO Air Quality Levels
a. Relating Air Quality Data to an Appropriate Emission
Density
Table 11-14 presented below shows the highest 8-hour
average CO concentrations recorded through July 1971, at the downtown
Minneapolis and at the KSTP tower monitoring stations. The St. Paul moni-
tor was not considered reliable by MPCA personnel and so the data were
not included. The value of 26.2 ppm recorded at the KSTP monitor was
the highest reported by either station. However, because of the extremely
low CO emission density in the area of the tower (2380 kg/sq mile/12 hrs)
relative to the emission densities in the two CBD areas ( > 12,500 kg/
sq mile/12 hrs), we feel that localized effects such as the nearby truck-
ing operations and parking lot plus meteorology contributed to this
high concentration level. We therefore concluded that it would be highly
inappropriate to "roll back" the low emission density level of 2380 kg/
sq mile (12 hours), by the 65.6 percent figure shown in Table 11-14..
The value of 18.9 ppm measured by the Minneapolis moni-
tor, on the other hand is located in an area of high emission density and
we feel that the direct rollback technique in this case can be meaningfully
employed. Utilizing such a roll back, Table 11-14 illustrates that a
52.4 percent reduction in 1971 emissions is required in the Minneapolis
11-50
-------
TABLE 11-14
SUMMARY OF HIGHEST 8-HOUR CO CONCENTRATIONS
Location
Minneapolis
CBD
St. Paul
CBD
KSTP Tower
Area
Highest
8-hr Ave.
CO Level Date
(ppm) Occurred
18.9 11/11/71
*
26.2 11/11/71
Percent
Reduction
Needed to
Meet Standards
of 9ppm
52.4
_
65.6
Corresponding
"Safe"
Emission
Density
(kgm/sq.mile)
6,100
^
819
Percent
Reduction
Achieved by 1977
from Federal
Motor Vehicle
Control Program
48.7
.
43.5
Percent
Reduction
Needed from
Control
Strategies
3.7
_
22.1
Data not considered reliable by MPCA personnel and so was not included.
-------
CBD to meet the CO 8-hour ambient air quality standard. The Federal
Motor Vehicle Control Program can achieve 48.7 percent reduction, with
the remaining 3.7 percent dependent upon the application of traffic con-
trol strategies. The safe emission density level of 6,100 kg/sq. mile
(12 hours) (corresponding to the level that is achieved with a 52.4 per-
cent reduction in Minneapolis CBD emissions) can therefore be utilized
as the reference value in determining whether emission densities in other
zones will result in acceptable or unacceptable CO air quality. Examina-
tion of the estimated 1977 total emission densities shown in Table 11-12
indicate that all zones with the exception of the two CBD's (and zone 93
which contains St. Paul airport) will have emission density levels well
below this 6,100 "safe" value.
b. Calculation of 1977 Air Quality Data
The projected 1977 CO air quality data without applica-
tion of transportation control strategies can be calculated by the follow-
ing equation, using the Minneapolis air quality and emission density data
discussed above:
/C71\
1 gI E__ = C77
\ 71 / Minneapolis zone
Zone x Zone X
where C = 8-hour average CO concentration (ppm)
E = Emission density [kgm/sq. mile (12 hour)]
The (C/E) ratio for the Minneapolis zone is equal to:
71
11-52
-------
Figures 11-14 and 11-15 show the projected 1977 CO air quality for each
of the Urban Activity Districts comprising the Minneapolis and St. Paul
metropolitan areas. These figures indicate that only the two CBD areas
exceed the 9 ppm 8-hour average CO standard (except for UAD 93 which has
large CO emission levels from the St. Paul airport). Consequently trans-
portation control strategies are necessary in the two CBD areas to achieve
the CO standard by 1977. Such strategies will be needed to achieve:
. an additional 3.7% reduction in total 1971 CO
emissions in the Minneapolis CBD by 1977, and
an additional 3.1% reduction in total 1971 CO
emissions in the St. Paul CBD by 1977.
Note, however, that without application of transportation
control strategies, the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program will result
in achievement of the CO standards by 1978. This is shown in Table 11-12
where the projected 1978 emission densities in the two CBD's fall below
the "safe" level of 6100 kg/sq mile (12 hrs).
3. 1977 Oxidant Air Quality Levels
Table 11-15 presented below shows the highest 1-hour average
oxidant concentrations recorded through July 1971, at the downtown Minn-
eapolis and KSTP tower monitoring stations. This table indicates that if
the proportional rollback technique is applied to the highest oxidant value
of 0.114 ppm, then a 28.4%, hydrocarbon emission reduction is required in
the area whose emissions resulted in these high concentrations. The hydro-
carbon emission densities for the Minneapolis and St. Paul metropolitan
area as presented in Table 11-13, indicate that the two CBD areas have
11-53
-------
Figure 11-14. Projected 1977 CO air quality for Minneapolis CBD.
11-54
-------
ir-« 11-15. Projected 1977 CO air quality for St. Paul CBD.
-------
TABLE 11-15
SUMMARY OF HIGHEST 1-HOUR OXIDANT CONCENTRATIONS
Location
Minneapolis
CBD
St. Paul
CBD
KSTP Tower
Area
High
1-hr
Ox id ant
Level Date
(ppm) Occurred
0.114 7/71
Not
Available
0.095 Summer
1971
Percent*
Reduction
Needed
To Meet
Standard
of 0.08 ppm
28.4
_
13.0
From Appendix J, 42 CFR 420, Federal Register, Vol. 36, No. 158,
Part II, August 14, 1971, p. 15502.
11-56
-------
the most significant hydrocarbon emission levels by at least a factor of
2. GCA therefore postulated that excessive oxidant concentrations in the
Metropolitan areas are the result of hydrocarbon emissions from the CBD
areas, and that emission densities in the CBD's would have to be "rolled
back" by at least 28.4% to achieve oxidant standards by 1977. Table 11-13
shows, however, that the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program will achieve
this percent total hydrocarbon emission reduction in the CBD's:
% of 1971 Total Hydrocarbon
Emissions Reduced by 1977
Minneapolis 30.1
St. Paul 29.9
Consequently, transportation control strategies will not be required to
achieve the oxidant air quality standard by 1977.
E. CONCLUSIONS
In si.nmnariy.ing the above subsections, the following conclusions
have been derived:
1-hr average oxidant air quality standards will be achieved
by 1977 with the hydrocarbon emission reductions obtained
from the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program. In addition,
the application of control strategies for non-vehicular
sources, which were not considered in our estimates, would
achieve further hydrocarbon emission reductions by 1977.
GCA concludes, therefore that oxidant air quality standards
can be achieved by 1977 in the Minneapolis St. Paul Metro-
politan areas without the application of transportation
control strategies.
11-57
-------
8-hr average CO air quality standards will be achieved
by 1977 in all areas of Region 131 with the exception of
the Minneapolis CBD and St. Paul CBD with the CO emission
reductions obtained from the Federal Motor Vehicle Con-
trol Program. Figures 11-14 and 11-15 show the projec-
ted 1977 air quality for each Urban Activity District
comprising the Metropolitan Areas of Minneapolis and
St. Paul.
8-hr average CO air quality standards will be achieved
by 1978 in all areas of Region 131 including the Minn-
eapolis and St. Paul CBD's, with the CO emission reduc-
tions obtained from the Federal Motor Vehicle Control
Program.
The reduction in 1971 emissions needed from Transporta-
tion Control Strategies, to achieve the 8-hour average
CO standard in the Minneapolis and St. Paul CBD's by
1977 are as follows:
CBD
Minneapolis
St. Paul
Reduction of 1971 emission
density required by control
strategies
% Total kg/sq. mile (12 hr)
3.7 475
3.1 391
11-58
-------
STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING AIR QUALITY THROUGH TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS
Since motor vehicle emissions constitute a major source of air
pollution proportional to the extent of their use, the effectiveness of
pollution control measures installed, and the nature and mode of their
operation, a number of strategies have been proposed toward imposing some
control over these parameters. These may be divided into three broad,
general categories which:
1. Reduce the density of travel;
2. Control the effectiveness of emission controls
and operational condition of the engine; or
3. Improve the speed, lessen periods of idle,
acceleration and deceleration by improving
traffic flow.
Typical of strategies falling under the first category are those
which reduce the vehicle-miles of travel committed by private vehicles
in problem areas. The objectives here are generally aimed at diversion
of automobile trips to public transit, increasing car occupancy by en-
couraging car pools, and restricting auto travel completely thus forcing
travel by other modes including walking. The strategies range from
enhancing competivite attributes of other modes, regulation and enforcement
of travel restrictions, and pricing policies to changes in working hours
of employees.
Emission control measures are being installed on new cars which
progressively meet stricter emission standards. At present, however, older
III-l
-------
cars are not being required to meet these standards and control measures
on new cars deteriorate with use. Therefore, the gradual improvement
potential in the emissions of the automobile population depend upon the
age distribution of the group and their maintenance. Strategies involving
periodic vehicle performance inspection, periodic vehicle maintenance, and
retrofit of older cars with available control devices are typical approaches
being considered and, in some areas, applied to improve air quality.
Strategies for improving traffic flow and operations result in
decreasing emission levels by increasing the average speed of engines,
and therefore vehicles, reducing the travel time, the number of stops and
idle time involved there,'and the extent the vehicle must accelerate to
cruise and decelerate while performing the trip. These improvements
usually involve some sophistication in traffic control systems, removal
of conflicts in traffic by parking and turning restrictions, turning lanes,
and removal of conflicts between pedestrian and vehicle traffic by grade
separation conversion to one way street flow, and other traffic engineering
approaches. These are typical approaches usually incorporated in TOPICS
(Traffic Operation to Improve Capacity and Safety) programs.
All of these are representative of viable candidates which must be
tested in each community for individual measures of effectiveness,
desirability, political and public acceptability and severity of the
improvement required. A specific strategy which is beneficial in one
area may prove ineffective, undesirable or even untenable in another. In
some cases a single strategy may not be as effective as a combination of
interrelated strategies carefully designed and coordinated. Prior to
III-2
-------
selecting or evaluating strategies tailored to the Twin Cities area
problem, a brief discussion of selected strategies will be given as back-
ground and possible future consideration. For the purposes of this
study strategies must have potential benefit in the near term, say 5
years, as opposed to those providing reductions over a longer term only.
A. ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING DENSITY OF TRAVEL
Density of travel is measured by vehicle-miles per square mile.
Therefore, the aim of these strategies are generally at reduction of the
number of vehicles and/or the distance travelled used to serve demands
for travel. The work-trip is categorically the most troublesome travel
for it generates peaks in traffic in the morning and evening, resulting
in overstressing existing capacity of linkages between home and work.
Congestion, at these periods results in longer travel times. Many con-
sider it uneconomical to expand the corridor vehicular capacity to meet
the peak-hour demands, only to have off-peak loads for below that capacity.
The work trip by auto is inefficient in another area. Car
occupancy in vehicles in the Minneapolis area average only 1.52 persons
per car. Although this is about the national average, existing road and
street capacity can serve, obviously, more person-trips if more people
could be carried per vehicle.
1. Improved Public Transit
One means of concentrating more person-trips into an
efficient vehicle is that of diverting auto drivers and passengers to public
III-3
-------
transit. Simple mathematics indicates tta t a bus carrying 55 passengers
yet occupying slightly more than the equivalent of two standard automobiles
is over 18 times as efficient in meeting the work-trip demands within
existing capacity. Improved transit operations have been attempted in
numerous areas. Those which merely increase frequency of service or
reduce existing fares do not appear to be successfully compelling with the comfort,
availability, privacy, independence of movement and other positve attributes
perceived by the auto user. Even though the bus operates in a very flexible
manner in the collection and distribution phases of the trip, they can not
offer the door-to-door transportation service of the private automobile.
An example of this is the Rapid Bus Transit operating on
segregated busways of the Shirley highway in the Northern Virginia/
District of Columbia area offer a travel time advantage of about 30
minutes over car travel in the'same corridor. Conversion of auto
travellers to transit have been a small percentage of total travel to date.
A three-year Urban Mass Transportation Administration demonstration pro-
gram is in progress and considerable improvement is anticipated. These
conclusions may be premature. Other incentives, such as suburban fringe
parking which provide an intercept function by permitting part of the trip
to be performed by car from home to parking lot and frequent bus service
from fringe parking to the CBD and an effective CBD distribution system
may result in more bus patronage and less automobile work-trip travel.
All travellers, including those in higher income ranges,
are sensitive to "perceived" trip costs. Where pricing policies other
1II-4
-------
than fare adjustments are combined with improved level of service and other
changes, additional conversion to transit can be realized. This will be
discussed in a following section.
One study of a transit improvement in the Twin Cities
area indicated that auto use in and within about 2 miles of downtown
could be reduced in the long term, about 15 years, by about 13 percent.
On a regional basis, a reduction of about 3 percent in 1985 auto use
compared to current use could be expected from test systems, producing the
largest diversion. Air pollution impacts for alternative transit systems
in the Twin Cities is subjectively summarized in Table III-l.
2. Improved Transit Combined with Other Pricing Policies
Pricing policies may be combined with improvements in
transit to realize increased patronage of transit by the auto traveller.
These policies include substantial increases in parking fees in the CBD
for all-day parking, increased tolls for single occupancy cars, commuting
taxes, and other monetary assessments against private vehicle use.
An oft-cited example is the Philadelphia-Lindenwold system
which has obviously made its mark on improving rail rapid service. Its
sole impact on reducing highway congestion is difficult to measure. It
is apparent that vehicular traffic over two corridor bridges has reduced
about 7 percent. Two factors external to the system confound the analysis
Voorhees, Alan M. and Associates, Inc., Development of a Long Range
Transit Improvement Program for the Twin-Cities area, Twin-Cities Metro-
politan Transit Commission, November 1969.
II1-5
-------
TABLE III-l
AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS FOR ALTERNATIVE TRANSIT SYSTEMS
(2)
IN TWIN CITIESv '
System
Rapid Rail Transit
Rapid Rail Transit with Extended
Station Spacing
Buses in Freeways and Streets
Commuter Railroad
Busways without CBD subways
Busways with CBD subways
Metered Freeway Buses
Direct Air Pollution Impact
Downtown Regional
Excellent Negligible
Excellent Negligible
Fair
Good
Fair
Fair
Fair
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
(2)
Ibid.
Ill-6
-------
of the diversion; The tolls applied to private cars had been increased
100% during the period, but only 25% for commutation tickets, and the
depressed economic conditions in the Camden area. A user survey indicated
that a large percentage of the ridership on the system represented pass-
engers diverted from other transit service rather than from private cars.
While transit patronage has been found to be relatively inelastic
with respect to fare changes , parking fee policies appear to offer
another strategy to discourage private auto use for the work trip. A
study in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in 1958 indicated that doubling
the parking rate resulted in an increase in transit patronage from about
30 percent to about 45 percent. To achieve a level of 80 percent transit
usage, the model indicated that a quadrupling of parking fees would be
required.
Similar models have been developed for the Baltimore area
relating parking fees to transit ridership. Although some results have
not been satisfactorily explained, particularly within the first increments
of change, the model did forecast a transit ridership above 50 percent for
a daily parking cost of $2.50 or higher. The lowest income group would
perform about 80 percent of travel by transit, while about 50 percent of
the highest income group's travel would be by transit. The Baltimore
/0\
Lassow, W, Effect of the Fare Increase of July 1966 on the number of
Passengers Carried on the New York City Transit System, Highway Research
Record No. 213, 1968.
*• ^Curtin, J.F., Effect of Fares on Transit Riding. Highway Research
Record No. 213, 1968.
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Burt-.au ui Public Ro.-.xi;,, Model Split, Documenta-
tion of nine methods for Estimating Transit U:;:^:,t;, Government Printing
Office, 1966.
rn-7
-------
study assumed a large rapid transit system with substantial improvement in
transit travel time. With a quadrupling of parking costs, relatively large
diversions could be obtained from the upper income groups.
Many assumptions were made in the development of these
models. The data are encouraging from an air pollution reduction stand-
point. However, much more research is required to reliably relate
driver reactions to cost differential factors. Direct application to
other areas should be discouraged.
3. Improved Transit Combined with Other Transportation Regulations
Parking bans in the CBD tend to divert auto trips to areas
where parking is available if the trip can be completed satisfactorily
by other travel modes. If the parking is provided in the outer fringes,
the auto trip will be short and on relatively uncongented street networks.
If the parking is available on the CBD fringe, vehicle-miles of travel to
those facilities will still be generated and could possibly shift the pollu-
tion from the CBD to the surrounding areas. Such parking facilities
would require some distribution system improvement in the CBD if walking
distances are greater than sevoral blocks. Mini-buses or other micro-
transit systems such as people-mover systems can respond to these require-
ments.
A combination of CBD fringe parking and diuttle bus service
to CBD distributions has proved successful in Atlanta. A demonstration of
Voorhees, Alan M. and Associates, A Report on Mode Choice Analysis for
the Baltimore Region, HMV-R-20-1043 (921).
II1-J
-------
this concept indicates that the auto driver will patronize such a combined
facilitation and avoid the congestion in the CBD. Many of the attributes
of the private car are retained by the scheme.
Another.approach falling possibly in this category is the
various priority treatments afforded buses to increase levels of service
and shorten the time of the bus trip. Priorities include preferential
bus lanes, exclusive bus streets, extension of green phase of traffic
signals by approaching buses, metered on-off ramps on expressways for
buses during peak hours, and segregated busways inhance the quality of
bus service. Some of these measures can be applied at relatively low
investment costs by traffic control regulations, while others may require
substantial capital improvements.
4. Decreasing Traffic Density through Car Pool Incentives
Another means of decreasing traffic density is to encourage
car-pooling. As an example, if car occupancy in private cars were to
double in Minneapolis from the present 1.5 to 3.0, a reasonable objective,
the vehicle-miles commuted to the work trip would be reduced by 50 percent.
Various incentives have been tried to accomplish this objective with mixed
results. They include providing preferential parking by the employer to
car-pool vehicles, special toll rates for high-occupancy vehicles, shared
use of reserved freeway lanes with buses, and other priviledges to car
pool operators. Basic negative factors are that the car pool passengers
must live in proximity of each other, have common work hours and
locations, and be compatible in other respects. Car-pools of persons
li i -y
-------
who may work unscheduled over-time are not successful because of incon-
venience to others in the pool. Concepts to overcome some of these
negatives need to be developed. The general area appears to be a fruit-
ful one if sufficient strategies can be devised.
5. Decreasing Traffic Density through Changes in Work Hours
Consideration has been given to the 4-day 40-hour work week
for employees. This would potentially reduce the number of work trips
over the work week by 20 percent. If spread over six days, a theoretical
10 percent reduction in daily vehicle-miles would be realized. Difficul-
ties in establishing these practices include the interfaces between com-
mercial enterprises which require some commonality of working periods with other
enterprises. Availability of free time for three off-days will probably
induce more recreational travel but not necessarily in problem areas.
6. Shuttle Bus Service
Downtown districts developed as compact pedestrian-oriented
centers and must continue and be revitalized at a pedestrian scale.
Pedestrian CBD circulation studies indicate chat people desire to limit
their walking-trips to something less than 1,500 to 2,000 feet and will
pay a premium to achieve this convenience. These trips reflect movement
from parking and transit terminals to major employment centers, to and
from shops in the concentrated retail core, and interbuilding trips for
business or eat-meal purposes.
Where pedestrian volumes and distances fall within certain
ranges, augmentation of the pedestrian trip by some form of transporta-
111-10
-------
tion should be considered. Within certain ranges of these parameters
and operating costs, shuttle bus service appears to be feasible for a
CBD distribution system.
Since short headways between vehicles is usually desired,
small, 15 to 25 seat "mini-buses" are often employed in this type service,
operating on existing streets or exclusive bus lanes in malls. Where
demands warrant larger, conventional buses may be employed. Where shuttle
bus service is employed to interconnect concentrated points of demand,
such as a CBD-fringe parking facility, buses perform collection and dis-
tribution functions in the core, with frequent closely spaced stops at
employment centers and retail shops and stores. The movement is subject
to delays due to conflict with other vehicles on shared street facilities.
Benefits can be realized from priority measures and other treatments
relative to bus transit to shortening the trip time.
7. People-Movers (Micro-systems)
Most transportation systems are "people-movers", however,
this term applies to micro-systems which range from moving walk-ways to
bi-rail and monorail systems. These systems should provide maximum service
in a minimum distance and be limited in length to maximize the number of
passengers in each mile of route. The micro-system should serve, rather
than bypass, major retail and office concentrations, complement line-haul
transit rather than compete and follow linear movement channels.
Factors favorable to micro-system development include:
extensive core area congestion; limited parking in core aroas ; antici-
III-ll
-------
pated rapid center city growth; extensive urban renewal prospects; and
major barriers to movement within the center city. In considering micro-
systems, movement distances should be greater than 700 to 1,000 feet in
order that a significant reduction in trip times over walking can be
realized. High capital costs suggest need to serve heavy pedestrian con-
centrations. The economic feasibility of micro-systems as alternatives
to shuttle buses depends upon the relationship of capital and operating
costs to patronage levels. In a recent study, comparisons were made be-
tween assumed operating bus costs and construction costs of alternative
micro-systems. At a bus operating cost of $1.20 per mile, a patronage
of 8,000 to 13,000 persons or more per mile average eight-hour volume,
made a micro-system whose construction cost was assumed to be $2,000,000
per mile, more attractive. A volume of 20,000 to 32,000 persons per mile
per eight-hour day would be required to justify a micro-system whose con-
struction cost is $5-million per mile. A micro-system costing $15,000,000
per mile becomes feasible at a volume between 60,000 and 90,000 passengers
per mile.
For a micro-system to effectively intercept autos at the
periphery of the CBD, the following factors should be considered. The
free market demand for micro-system riding to peripheral parking facilities
would come from that group of downtown employees and visitors who are now
walking long distances to avoid high parking costs. These usually repre-
sent only a limited portion of the total parkers. Would these persons be
Wilbur Smith and Associates, Urban Transportation Concepts—Center
City Transportation Project, September 1970, for the Urban Mass Transporta-
tion Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.
Ill-12
-------
willing to pay rates high enough to capitalize both new peripheral gar-
ages and a micro-system without other measures? Under most circumstances,
it is felt that some additional incentives would be necessary to realize
the potential. One strategy often considered is the limitation through
regulation and control of the number of spaces available in the core.
Another is to increase core parking charges to that well in excess of
park-ride costs. These disincentives combined with effective and economic
park-and-ride facilities are thought to be necessary to assure patronage
and reduce core parking.
B. STRATEGIES FOR CONTROL OF EFFECTIVENESS OF EMISSION CONTROLS
AND OPERATIONAL CONDITION OF ENGINES
Automobile manufacturers are providing a reduction of emission
levels on new vehicles through changes in engine design and installation
of emission control devices. These measures, while effective when the
vehicle is new, tend to deteriorate with vehicle use depending upon the
nature of the measure and the periodic maintenance given the vehicle
during its life. Inspection/maintenance strategies have been implemented
in a number of states to assure that these means are effective throughout
the vehicle life. Two general categories of strategies have been identified:
an engine parameter inspection followed as necessary by specified para-
meter maintenance; and mode emission signature analysis producing further
diagnosis and corrective maintenance. Each of these approaches contains
a number of substrategies and tactics. The major discriminate between
these categories is the instrumentation employed in the inspection and
the methods of performing the diagnosis.
111-13
-------
( 8^
An economic effectiveness study has been performed to evaluate
the more significant substrategies and tactics and to develop figures of
merit, cost per inspection/maintenance per car, and to optimize emission
reduction for each substrategy.
The engine-characteristics involved in both tests were idle,
with and without load, ignition misfire, and air induction. Within the
weighting factors assigned to the emission components (CO, HC and NO )
X
reductions, the "best" alternative within a given strategy can be
assessed from the data summarized in Table III-2. Procedures compared
here include the inspection performed in a state inspection lane and by
a franchised operator or garage.
In addition to an idle adjustment program, other parameter
inspection/maintenance strategies were assessed as indicated in Table
HI-3. In these cases, the overall figures of merit were found to be con-
siderably poorer than that of the idle adjustment program. Although these
more elaborate procedures substantially reduce HC emission levels below
that obtained by the.idle adjustment; procedures, they are more than
offset by higher costs. These costs are the result of more difficult and
lengthy inspections required to find ignition and induction system mal-
functions. For example, the study indicated that 15 minutes of inspection
time on 100 percent of the vehicles would be required to find the 3 to 4
percent of engines with misfire defects under load. Only in regions of
chronic air pollution and large vehicle population would such costs
appear warranted.
(Q\
TRW Systems Group et al., The. Economic Effectiveness of Mandatory
Kngine Maintenance for Reducing Vehicle, l.'isiiuuaf. Emissions, Vol. 1, APRAC/
CAPE-13-68, CRC & EPA, Auyusr. !), 1971.
Ill-l/i
-------
TABLE III -2
SUMMARY OF THE MORE COST EFFECTIVE
INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE PROCEDURE
Procedure
Engine Parameter Diagnosis
1. Idle (State Lane)
2. Idle (Franchised)
3. Extensive A (Franchised)
4. Extensive B (Franchised)
Emission Signature Analysis
5. Idle (State Lane)
*
6. Extensive A (State Lane)
**
7. Extensive B (State Lane)
Figure of Merit
($/Ton)
320
370
460
540
430
360
410
Cost Per
Vehicle
($)
1.50
2.50
6.00
13.00
2.50
4.00
4.00
***
Emission Reduction
HC
0
3
18
22
2
11
15
CO
15
13
14
33
12
16
20
NO
-7
-3
0
-5
-4
-4
-3
Idle Plus Ignition Subsystem Inspection.
<<•
Idle Plus Ignition Plus Induction Subsystem.
***
Average emission reduction over a four-year period.
Source: TRW Systems Group et al., The Economic Effectiveness of Mandatory Engine Maintenance
for Reducing Vehicle Exhaust Emissions, August 9, 1971.
-------
TABLE III -3
EQUIPMENT AND PROCEDURES REQUIBED FOR DIAGNOSING
ENGINE PARAMETER MALFUNCTIONS
Subsystem
Idle
- Rpm
- Timing
- Fuel-to-Air
Ignition -Misfire
Induction
- PCV
- Air cleaner
- Air reactor
Engine Parameter
Equipment
Tachometer
Timing Light
NDIR CO Analyzer
Engine Electronic
Analyzer Dynamo-
meter
Pressure gage
AC air cleaner
tester
NDIR C0/C02
Analyzer
Procedure
Idle Rpm
Basic Timing
Idle CO
Misfire at
45 mph road-
load
Idle Crankcase
pressure
Pressure drop
across element
Idle dilution
correction
Emission Signature
Equipment
NDIR HC Analyzer
NDIR HC Analyzer
NDIR CO Analyzer
NDIR HC Analyzer/
Dynamometer
NDIR CO Analyzer/
Dynamometer
NDIR CO Analyzer/
Dynamometer
NDIR CO Analyzer/
Dynamometer
Procedure
Idle HC
Idle HC
Idle CO
45 -Mph HC
45 -Mph CO
45 -Mph "°
CO Connected -
CO Disconnected
Source: TRW Systems Group et al., The Economic Effectiveness of Mandatory Engine
Maintenance for Reducing
-------
The reductions cited here are those which were realized immed-
iately after the inspection/maintenance procedure. Therefore, the values
must be degraded on some basis and as a minimum, linearly with time over
a 12-month period to obtain realistic reduction estimates.
The procedures discussed above were for idle engine mode. This
test mode is not considered to be capable of achieving and maintaining a
suitable emissions reduction and is generally not acceptable to EPA as
the ultimate procedure, although has been judged a useful first step toward
the implementation of an acceptable inspection/maintenance strategy. A
preferred program includes diagnostic maintenance, mandatory maintenance
and loaded emission inspection programs.
Programs for pre-controlled vehicles at a minimum must cover
the following engine parameters: PCV value, air cleaner, idle adjustments,
spark plug wires, points, condenser, spark plugs, and distributor cap and
rotor. Programs for controlled vehicles must include any emission control-
related component or adjustment for which the manufacturer recommends per-
iodic servicing. Inspections at least once a year will provide the follow-
ing reductions:
Hydrocarbons 12%
Carbon Monoxide 10%
Nitrogen Oxides 0%
The loaded test procedures require the use of some form of
calibrated load to be applied to the vehicle drive chain such as a chassis
dynamometer. Not only does this requirement increase inspection costs, it
likewise requires additional test set-up time, therefore decreasing the
throughput of inspection lines.
111-17
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C. STRATEGIES RELATED TO IMPROVED TRAFFIC FLOW
Any measure would be beneficial in decreasing vehicle pollution
which would smooth the flow of traffic or increase the average speed
of the traffic stream. Some measures which reduce congestion might be
counter productive, however, because that might induce more people to
drive. Other measures might be required concomitantly with traffic opera-
tion improvements to reduce overall number and length of auto trips in
problem urban areas.
The techniques for improving traffic flow on freeways are
relatively well developed. They include: reverse lane operations, where
one or more lanes are employed for moving traffic selectively during
various times to meet direction of flow demand; driver advisory displays
indicating alternative routes and advising motorists of traffic conditions;
ramp control or metering where freeway access is permitted consistent
with freeway traffic volumes; and interchange design to more adequately
accommodate weaving or merging maneuvers.
Arterials are commonly obsolete for modern traffic demands.
Much can be done to improve, their effectiveness, as demonstrated in TOPICS
programs. These techniques include: modifications to horizontal align-
ments to remove small radius curves; decreases in vertical grades to main
constant speeds; widening intersections by minor construction and elimina-
tion of curb parking; reversible lanes and one-way streets; channelization
of traffic flow; turning lanes for left turn maneuvers, and other traffic
engineering techniques.
1II-L8
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The street system in the CBD is often judged as the most complex
component of the urban area road system. Traffic flow is frequently
interrupted by pedestrian movements, turning vehicle conflicts, a high
number of start-stop transit vehicles in the traffic stream, and traffic
signals. Lower average speeds result from the vehicle time spent at idle,
accelerating and decelerating.
In addition to the measures employed by TOPICS designs, a traffic
responsive signal control system has proved beneficial in improving down-
town circulation. In Wichita Falls, a such system reduced vehicle stops
by 16.3%, average vehicle delays by 31 percent and increased peak-hour
speeds on many downtown approach and exit streets from 20 to about 30
miles per hour.
In many downtown areas, loading and unloading of commercial
vehicles impedes smooth traffic flow. One effective measure to lessen the
immediate problem is peak-hour restrictions on such operations. Another
is the designation of service streets segregated as much as possible from
the arterial street system. The long-range solution is the establishment
of off-street loading facilities. Urban goods movements by truck are also
inefficient in that small consignments are delivered by many truck trips
rather than combined loads in a smaller number of trucks.
Pedestrian/vehicle conflicts can be minimized by special controls,
creation of pedestrian malls and grade separation of pedestrian traffic
from vehicular traffic.
111-19
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Staggering of work hours can effectively spread peak-hour
transportation demands for both private vehicles and transit. This
effectively permits more effective use of existing street capacity and
facilitates traffic flow. Demonstration programs in such towns as
Atlanta, New York and other cities have proved the workability of such
approaches.
D. CANDIDATE STRATEGIES FOR MINNEAPOLIS-St. PAUL
In this study, a relatively small reduction in traffic density
is required in the CBD's of Minneapolis -and St. Paul to achieve Federal
air quality standards by 1977 as seen in Section II D. The implementation of al-
ready planned programs in these cities would appear to potentially achieve
at least the magnitude of reductions required. Under these circumstances,
no additional strategies other than those specified in these programs
were examined in this report, and these strategies are discussed below.
1. Candidate Strategies for the Minneapolis CBD
a. Express Bus Service - Planning for an express bus service
is already underway for the I-35W Urban Corridor. The service will be
operating initially as a demonstration program. Continuation of the
service will be based upon the results of the demonstration and the avail-
ability of funds to support the service, if required.
Full operation of the service is planned for mid-1973. It
will include ramp-metering facilities on the freeway. It is anticipated
that the service will divert approximately 2,000 riders daily from auto-
mobiles. On the assumption that these trips are all work-trips, this
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means a decrease of about 2,700 automobiles in that corridor, (4,000 person-
trips daily at an occupancy of 1.5 persons per car). The ADT in 1970
on I-35W is about 100,000 vehicles. Thus the impact in the corridor,
and for that matter in the CBD, would have a minor impact on reducing
the traffic density and therefore the emission levels in either area,
when taken by itself.
b. CBD Fringe Parking - The concept of providing convenient,
low cost parking at the fringe of the CBD along with restricting and dis-
couraging parking the the core is expected to be implemented by 1976.
Parking ramps totaling 11,350 spaces connected to the distribution network
and freeways on one end and pedestrian skyways into the core on the other
will be effective incentives for their use. Also, the elimination of a
like number of spaces in the core will be further inducement supporting
the plan. Thus, it can be estimated that about 16,500 auto passengers
will be diverted from the CBD. With an estimated 363,000 two-way person-
trips into the CBD, this would correspond to a potential reduction in
passenger-car vehicle-miles of abcSut 9 percent. Assuming an 80% utili-
zation of the fringe parking facility, by 1977, about 7 percent reduction
in passenger VMT can be assumed to be a reasonable influence.
c. People-Mover System Planning is currently underway by the
City of Minneapolis, Metropolitan Transit Commission and the downtown
Council for an automated people mover system in downtown Minneapolis which
would provide linkage between CBD fringe parking facilities, downtown
offices and stores and the skyway system. The system would consist of
111-21
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20-40 passenger vehicles operated on a fixed guideway elevated to the
second story level of downtown buildings. The maximum walking distance
from any point in the downtown area to a people-mover station is expec-
ted to be 2 1/2 block sand average 1 to 1 1/2 blocks. The first stage
of the system—the east-west loop—is anticipated to be operational by
1976. Half of the total mileage will be operational at this time.
This planned system or some other pedestrian-augmentation
facility has already been assumed in operation to serve the CBD fringe
parking benefits for Minneapolis. Therefore, the further impact of this
system on reducing CBD VMT volumes will be minimal and be largely the re-
duction in private cars making internal CBD trips between activity centers.
It is estimated that this circulation presently is about 1 percent of total
passenger car volume.
d. Traffic Surveillance and Control - Detailed planning for
a traffic-responsive surveillance and control system has been completed
for Minneapolis. The volume, speed and direction of vehicles along con-
trolled CBD streets will be monitored. The data will be transmitted to
a central computer to determine cycle phase of traffic signals, providing
an adaptive signal system. The system is to control reverse lanes and
divert traffic from congested streets. The system will require 3 years
to implement and is expected to be operational by the first quarter of
1976.
Similar systems have been operational in a number of cities
of the same size. The results of these demonstrations vary widely. The
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effactivity of the computerized signal system not only depends upon the
location and number of sensors or detectors used in measuring traffic
conditions, but is vitally concerned with the computer algorithms employed
to develop effective control programs. The results therefore depend upon
both hardware installation and design, and upon skillful computer program-
ming. The effectivity also depends upon careful analysis of conflicts in
traffic flow and corrective measures implemented to lessen these problems.
Experience has shown that if an optimum system has been pro-
vided, substantial improvement in average traffic speed can be realized.
It is felt that the average speed in the CBD can be increased from the
present 14 mph to about 20 mph.
2. Candidate Strategies for the St. Paul CBD
a. Fringe Parking - Bulk parking facilities in the fringe
of the St. Paul CBD is part of the present policy of both the City of
St. Paul and the downtown business community. Long-term employee parking
structures are planned on the periphery of the core. Executive parking
in limited quantities convenient to place of employment and in structures
are a part of this policy. Shopper, business and patron parking in struc-
tures convenient to destinations is supported by the policy. Errand par-
king off-street and well distributed is included along with regulation
and pricing to encourage short term use. The policy also embraces the
elimination of all on-street parking in the retail and office areas.
Specifically proposed action by OPERATION '85, the develop-
ment arm of the Downtown Business Association, includes the development
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of three open parking lots to provide spaces for 10,000 cars, with ex-
pansion as necessary as multi-level facilities. These plans, if assoc-
iated with an effective shuttle bus service also planned, could contribute
to the reduction in CBD traffic volume, with the provision that a like
number of spaces are eliminated in the core. This elimination would fit
into the above stated policy and should be definitely committed in that
development.
On the basis of past assumptions, about 15,000 persons would
be diverted from the CBD core. When comparing this to the number of per-
son-trips projected for the area in 1977 and proper accounting for the
vehicle travel that would be generated by these trips, it is estimated
that about a 10 percent reduction in passenger car VMT volume related
to the CBD can be realized.
b. Shuttle Bus Service- A shuttle bus service is in inte-
gral part of the recommended strategy for the fringe parking program of
OPERATION '85. The service would supplement the expanding skyway system
and would provide transportation from the parking facilities with the
downtown area.
In addition, the Metropolitan Transit Commission's unified
work program for 1973 includes a circulation and collection/distribution
study for St. Paul. The study, with support from the Urban Mass Trans-
portation Administration will be a six-month effort which may lead to
design of a transportation center to interconnect the fast link system,
the shuttle bus system and other transit with the St. Paul Skyway system.
111-24
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Such a program will enhance the circulation downtown and contribute to
the improvement of core circulation.
c. Auto Free Malls - The transportation plan for the St.
Paul Core Area recommends an Auto Free Mall on Seventh Street between
Jackson and Wabasha. Auto Free malls have also been proposed for Fourth
and Minnesota. Only shuttle buses would operate on these streets.
These facilities would not, in themselves, substantially
contribute to the reduction of traffic volume in the core, and may be
counter-productive by inducing vehicle travel into the Core area. Fringe
parking and shuttle bus service discussed above will be adequate, however,
to off-set the attraction of downtown travel of shoppers.
d. Traffic Signal System - Improvements in the traffic
signal system have been proposed as part of the St. Paul TOPICS plan.
With the same comments made to the Minneapolis Traffic Signal system
applicable here, substantial improvement in core area travel speed should
be realized. It is estimated that an increase from 12 mph to about 18 mph
is a realistic and achievable objective for this program. With such poten-
tial, this program should be supported by this air quality implementation
plan.
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IV. OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION OF CANDIDATE CONTROLS
A. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research on the issues associated with the implementation of
transportation controls to improve air quality consisted of a systematic
process of data collection, interpretation and evaluation, as shown in
Figure IV-1 below. The first step was to review the candidate strategies
for transportation control identified by the traffic engineer. Once this
preliminary list was known, it was possible to identify the public agen-
cies and private interest groups at city, state and regional levels, who
would have an interest in the implementation of these strategies. This
process was facilitated in Minneapolis-St. Paul by an early informational
meeting to which representatives of a large number of public agencies
were invited.
Review of
Candidate
Strategies
Identification
of interested
offices & agencies
Checklist of
issues in
implementation
Interviews with ;
interested i~
offices S agencies
Interpretation
of interview
data
x
7
Evaluation of
candidate
strategies
)
Selection of
recommended
strategies
Figure IV-1. Research Methodology.
IV-1
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Given brief descriptions of the candidate strategies, a list
of interest groups, and an understanding of the problems generally
associated with change in the urban environment, it was possible to
identify the types of issues (or sometimes, obstacles) that might be
associated with implementation of the transportation controls. A gen-
eral checklist of the types of issues anticipated was prepared for sub-
sequent review with representatives of interested parties. The checklist
consisted of the following items:
Legal Authorization and Requirements
Financial Requirements: amount of funding needed; type
and sources of financing possible
. Management and Enforcement Responsibility
Economic Impact
. Political Feasibility
. User Acceptance
Interviews were held with representatives of virtually all of the public
agencies who might be concerned about the candidate control measures,
and with representatives of downtown business. Other citizen interest
groups were not interviewed at this stage. Each of the relevant candi-
date control strategies was discussed in terms of the types of issues
included in the checklist. Respondents also provided us with reports
and other written material relevant to the issues being discussed. Sug-
gestions for alternative strategies were also solicited at this time.
Lists of the people interviewed in Minneapolis, St. Paul and Salt Lake
City can be found in Appendix A.
The qualitative data resulting from the interviews was inter-
preted in light of our growing understanding of the transportation issues
IV-2
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active in the cities at the present time, and our understanding of the
political and economic forces that must be balanced in the urban environ-
ment. This information, in conjunction with the written material sup-
plied, made it possible to evaluate the candidate transportation control
strategies in terms of the timeliness and feasibility of their imple-
mentation. From this evaluation, recommendations were made for the
selection of transportation control strategies.
In Minneapolis - St. Paul, only the vehicle performance inspec-
tion was eliminated from the list of candidate strategies finally recom-
mended. The problems associated with the implementation of such a program
are discussed in Appendix B.
B. EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES RECOMMENDED FOR MINNEAPOLIS'
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT (CBD)
1. Express Bus Service
Planning for the major portion of the express bus service
recommended here is already underway in the form of the I-35W Urban Cor-
ridor Demonstration on a Bus-Metered Freeway System. Full operation of
the service, including metered entrance ramps for the buses, is expected
by mid-1973. It is anticipated that the service will attract approxi-
mately 2,000 riders daily from their automobiles.
The service will be operating initially on a demonstration
basis. Continuation of the program will depend on its initial success,
as indicated by the results of continuous evaluation, and on the avail-
ability of additional funds for operation.
IV-3
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a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
Legal authority to manage and operate such an express
bus on an Interstate Freeway exists within the combined authorities
of the Metropolitan Transit Commission and the Minnesota Highway Depart-
ment. The land required for the construction of the metered freeway
ramps is within the highway right of way, and no additional land acqui-
sition will be required for this purpose. Since the buses will operate
with other vehicular traffic on the freeway itself, no additional right
of way will be required here either.
b. Management and Enforcement Responsibility
The project is managed by a Project Management Board
consisting of representatives of the Metropolitan Council (coordinates
all planning in the Seven County area), Minnesota Highway Department,
Metropolitan Transit Commission, Hennepin County and the City of Minn-
eapolis. The Board provides overall technical direction for the project.
The project director is a full time staff member of the Minnesota High-
way Department and is the individual responsible for dealing with the
Consultants and coordinating local staff participation. Expansion of
the project to include St. Paul would require expansion of the Project
Management Board to include appropriate city and county representatives.
c. Financial Requirements
The capital cost for all elements of the Bus-Metered
Freeway system has been estimated at $4,731,000, including the surveil-
lance and control system ($1,703,000) and the bus ramps, vehicles, park-
IV-4
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ride facilities, waiting shelters, and bus stop signs that comprise
the transit service ($3,028,000). The annual operating expenses of the
transit service plan are estimated at $558,000 for the first year.
Additional operating funds will be necessary for the surveillance and
control system ($148,000) and marketing ($102,150).
Financial support for the demonstration project has been
committed from several sources: Federal Highway Administration, Urban
Mass Transit Administration and the Metropolitan Transit Commission.
However, operation of the express bus system beyond the demonstration
phase will require a small amount of additional financing. As indicated
in the final planning report on the system, operating expenses for the
first year are expected to be as follows:
Service Plan Operation $ 558,800
Surveillance & Control System 148,000
Marketing 102,150
Total Operating Cost $ 808,950
Passenger Revenues $ 689,700
Operating deficit offset by
initial grants and local
service reductions ($119,250)
In the second and subsequent years, we can expect passen-
ger revenues to increase by about 5% (extrapolation of current trend in
the Minneapolis, St. Paul metropolitan area) and marketing costs to be
reduced by about $30,000 (3/4 of the expenses for creative planning and
I-35W Urban Corridor Demonstration Project: Bus Metered Freeway
System, September, 1971.
IV-5
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advertising for metering). Thus, for the second and subsequent years,
additional financing of $54,765 would be required to support the program,
as shown below:
Service Plan Operation $ 558,800
Surveillance & Control System 148,000
Marketing 72,150
Total Operating Cost $ 778,950
Passenger Revenues $ 724,185
Operating Deficit Requiring
additional financial support $ 54,765
It is possible that this sum could be financed by the State or by a con-
tinuing grant from the Federal Highway Administration. Resolution of
this issue must await evaluation of the program's first full year of
operation.
Also awaiting evaluation of this demonstration program
is the expansion of freeway metering and express bus service to connect
Minneapolis and St. Paul. This project would require substantial capital
and operating financing of the same order of magnitude as the I-35W corri-
dor project.
d. User Acceptance
Vital to the success and continued operation of the express
bus service is the market's acceptance of it. In recognition of this fact,
the system planners have already devoted considerable effort to the market-
ing strategy. The major appeal would be made on the basis of the time and
money saving features of the system. An attitudinal study for the Twin
IV-6
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Cities Area Metropolitan Transit Commission conducted in early 1969 by
Simpson and Curtin showed the importance of a number of characteristics
of transit travel to work, shown below in Table IV-1. Percentages refer
to the percentage of the sample who ranked the trip characteristics as
"very important" or "of some importance".
TABLE IV- 1*
RANKING OF CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSIT TRIPS TO
Getting to Work on Time
Your Safety
Travel Time
Need Not to Transfer from one
Bus to Another
Having your Mind free while
going to and from work
Your Comfort
Cleanliness of the Car
Cost of the Trip
Very
Important
91.6%
83 . 3%
55.1%
54.2%
39.0%
36.8%
31.9%
26.0%
Of Some
Importance
5 . 6%
13.0%
26.0%
25.1%
40 . 9%
41.8%
52.9%
36.2%
WORK
Total
97.2%
96.2%
81 . 1%
79 . 3%
79.9%
79 . 6%
84.8%
62 . 2%
While all of these factors are of considerable importance, as indicated
by the total percentages, it is clear that getting to work on time and
other travel time issues are paramount. If the credibility of time saving
by bus can be established with auto users, then this should be the major
*
I-35W Urban Corridor Demonstration Project: Bus Metered Freeway
System, September, 1971, p. 107.
IV-7
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thrust of the marketing appeal. Other factors, especially safety and
convenience should also be highlighted. Less money should probably be
spent on advertising the money saving features of the system, (now tar-
geted for major emphasis) because of the relatively little importance
ascribed to this characteristic by potential users. Since the primary
market (auto users of the corridor) consists of people with higher than
average income, this appeal is likely to have little impact. With these
minor changes in the marketing strategy, it seems possible that the system
will achieve the anticipated ridership goals.
e. Economic Impact
The major economic impact anticipated at this time is a
reduction in parking lot revenues normally received from auto commuters.
This would not amount to more than about $3,000 per day, and be spread
among a large number of parking lot owners. Since reductions in the num-
ber of downtown parking spaces are planned, it is not likely that this
impact will be sufficient to present an obstacle to full implementation
of the express bus service.
f. Political Feasibility
The political feasibility of the service depends, ul-
timately, on the attitudes of users and downtown employers and parking lot
owners. If they continue to support it, there is not likely to be any
political opposition.
2. CBD Fringe Parking
The concept of providing convenient, low cost parking at
the fringe of the CBD, while restricting and discouraging parking in the
IV-8
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downtown core is an integral part of current planning for Minneapolis.
The Metro Center '85 report includes as policies
"Creation of fringe parking ramps connected to the dis-
tributor network and freeways on one end and pedestrian
skyways into the core on the other.
Prohibiting through zoning, the development of any new
parking ramps within the core by restricting the maxi-
mum number of parking spaces that may be permitted in
any new building."
Full implementation of the city's parking policy is anticipated by 1976,
by which time peripheral parking ramps will be in operation with a total
of 11,350 spaces. By the same time, through the redevelopment of the
downtown area, approximately 11,000 CBD spaces will be eliminated.
a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
Minneapolis has the legislative authority necessary to
develop parking facilities in the locations it desires. Minnesota
Statutes Chapter 459 include the right to issue bonds to finance parking
facilities, securing low interest rates with the full faith and credit
of the city. Through the power of eminent domain, Minneapolis has the
right to acquire the necessary land and to build on it.
The City's capacity to limit the private construction
of parking facilities is less clear. While it is legally possible for
the city to restrict parking through its zoning powers, developers are
frequently granted the right to construct parking in excess of the desired
Metro Center '85: Study for Development of Program and Priorities
for Expanded Job and Investment Opportunities in Central Minnesota,
Minneapolis Planning and Development, March, 1970, p. 102.
IV-9
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200 spaces per block of development in exchange for other concessions.
To remedy this situation, it will be necessary to redraft the present
zoning ordinance to explicitly restrict parking in the downtown area to
accessory parking (less than 200 spaces per block of development), and to
prohibit construction in this area of any major new facilities intended
exclusively for parking. The new zoning ordinance will require passage
*
by the city council. As indicated in the Metro Center '85 report,
restriction of downtown parking through zoning and redrafting of the zon-
ing ordinance is the policy of the city. Several new versions of the
ordinance have been prepared, and agreement is anticipated shortly. The
City's parking policy has the full support of the Minneapolis Downtown
Council (the development arm of the Chamber of Commerce) and can thus be
expected to pass the City Council.
Another tool potentially available to control the loca-
tion and quantity of downtown parking in Minneapolis is the development
district. Chapter 677 of the 1971 Minnesota State Statutes authorized
the creation of two development districts until 1973. In the 1973 legis-
lative session, the City will propose that the downtown area also be
designated a development district, thereby giving the City unprecedented
control over the design and location of all new construction in designated
areas. City planners are presently identifying the possible boundaries
of a downtown development district, and no opposition has yet arisen to
the plan.
*
Metro Center '85, p. 140.
IV-10
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b. Financial Requirements
Bonds have already been sold for a major portion of the
fringe parking structures, and the remainder are in preparation. It is
likely that arrangements will be made with the operators of the parking
garages to guarantee the City a fixed annual income from the facilities
sufficient to repay the initial investment and debt service. Although it
is not anticipated that any additional financing will be necessary, grants
are available from the Federal Highway Administration for the construction
of parking ramps for commuters in conjunction with Interstate Highway
projects.
Another financing alternative, proposed in the Metro '85
report is the creation of a parking fund which would be the recipient
of money from private downtown developers for the construction of a re-
quired number of parking spaces. Pooling of this money in a special fund
would make it possible to construct parking more efficiently and at loca-
tions chosen by the City rather than at the development sites.
c. Management and Enforcement Responsibility
Management of CBD fringe parking ramps would be delegated
to the operators to whom the facilities were leased.
Responsibility for the revision of the zoning ordinance
and the possible creation of a downtown development district rest with
the City Planning and Development Department and the Coordinator's office.
d. User Acceptance
Acceptance of CBD fringe parking in lieu of downtown core
area parking will depend somewhat on the price of the parking, but much
IV-11
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more on the quality and timeliness of the linkage to downtown that is
provided. A people mover system and an expanded skyway system are planned
for this purpose, and discussed below.
e. Pricing Controls
Also at issue is the possible institution of pricing con-
trols which would raise the price of downtown CBD parking in relation to
fringe CBD parking. This would theoretically discourage all but execu-
tives and perhaps shoppers (whose parking fees might be paid through their
purchases) from parking in the CBD. The economic impact of this policy
could be detrimental to downtown parking operators and even downtown stores
who could be at a disadvantage in relation to suburban businesses. At
present, the City does not have the right to review parking rates. And
a new City ordinance would be required to implement these controls. Such
an ordinance would require council approval. Given its economic disad-
vantages, it is unlikely that this policy will be politically feasible
within the period of the implementation plan.
3. People Mover System
Planning is currently underway by the City of Minneapolis,
Metropolitan Transit Commission and the Downtown Council for an automated
people mover system in downtown Minneapolis which would provide an effi-
cient linkage between CBD fringe parking facilities, downtown offices and
stores, and the skyway system. The system would consist of 20-40 passen-
ger vehicles operating on a fixed guideway elevated to the second story
of the downtown buildings. The maximum walking distance from any point
IV-12
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in the downtown area to a people mover station is expected to be 2 or
2 1/2 blocks, and the average about 1 or 1 1/2 blocks, it is antici-
pated that the first stage of the system - the east, west loop compris-
ing half the total mileage - will be operating by 1976.
a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
Chapter 429 of the 1971 Minnesota State Statutes permits
the city of Minneapolis to finance, construct, operate and maintain a
people mover system of the type contemplated. However, additional legal
steps must be taken before construction can begin. Agreements will need
to be reached between the City .and all of the individual property owners
abutting the proposed right of way. One problem which may interfere
with this process is the system's potential infringement on the abutting
property owners' right to light and air. If this becomes a serious issue,
then delays are likely to result.
b. Financial Requirements
The initial capital investment required for the system
has been estimated at $53,000,000, with annual operating expenses of
$3,100,000 including debt service. On-going negotiations with the Urban
Mass Transit Administration indicate that approximately 80% federal fund-
ing may be available for the initial capital investment.
Minneapolis has in mind several options for financing
the remaining costs. One option would involve the creation of an economic
development district in downtown Minneapolis and the application of tax
increment financing. Under this scheme, taxes in the district are frozen
IV-13
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at the level of a designated year, and the increase in tax revenue re-
sulting from the improvement (the people mover, in this case) is returned
exclusively to the district, through the general fund. The potential
for creating an economic development district within the city of Minn-
eapolis exists in Chapter 677 of the 1971 State Statutes. However,
application of this law to downtown Minneapolis would require approval
of the Legislature sometime after July 1, 1973. An additional constraint
on the use of this funding mechanism is a current limit of 5 mils on the
additional tax levy that can be made on the property owners in a develop-
ment district. This revenue would cover only about one fourth of the
cost of the system.
If this restriction were not lifted, then additional
revenue would be required from other sources.
Construction of the people mover system, however, is not
dependent on approval of Minneapolis as an economic development district.
The city of Minneapolis itself and the Metropolitan Transit Commission
are both prepared to sell bonds to raise the initial capital required. A
benefit assessment district could also be established with the beneficiaries
of the service being assessed in proportion to their benefit. If neces-
sary, it would also be possible to charge a 10 cent fare to defray operat-
ing expenses, instead of the service being free.
The financing options for this proposal are many, and
its ultimate feasibility rests with the economic strength of the entities
involved and not with which option is chosen. The City of Minneapolis
IV-14
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has an AAA bond rating, and the Metropolitan Transit Commission an AA
rating. Thus it appears that some satisfactory financing scheme can be
found to implement the people mover system.
c. Management Responsiblity
Responsibility for management of the people mover system
is now under discussion, and the obvious candidates are the city of Minn-
eapolis and the Metropolitan Transit Commission. A decision about this is
expected shortly.
d. Economic Impact
The people mover system is likely to have a positive
economic impact on retail sales, office space leasing, and development
of tourist and convention facilities. Land values are likely to increase
near the stations. No groups have been identified which would be likely
to suffer economically as a result of the people mover service.
e. User Acceptance
Acceptance by the residents of Minneapolis will depend
largely on the financing scheme that is chosen, the quality of the service,
and perhaps the aesthetic impact of the aerial structure itself. Until
the financial and design details have been decided, it is not possible
to anticipate citizen response.
f. Political Feasibility
While there is substantial support for the concept of
the people mover system, political opposition may arise during the process
IV-15
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of detailed design and location. This can and is being avoided by in-
volving the downtown business community early in the system's planning.
4. Traffic Management System
Detailed planning for a traffic surveillance and control
system (or traffic management system) has been completed for Minneapolis.
The system will monitor the number, speed and direction of vehicles
along the controlled roadways. This information will be fed into a com-
puter which will coordinate the signal system, meter traffic, reverse
lanes and divert traffic from congested streets as appropriate in order
to optimize the smooth flow of vehicular traffic. The system will re-
quire 3 years to implement, and is expected to be operational by the
first quarter of 1976.
a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
No special legal authorization is required to install
the system. Maintenance agreements between Minneapolis, Hennepin County
and the State of Minnesota will have to be prepared to define maintenance
responsibilities on the roads belonging to these different political
entities. There is ample time to reach an agreement on this issue, and
it is not expected to be an obstacle to the system's operation.
b. Financial Requirements
The traffic management system will cost about $4,000,000
and be supported by a TOPICS grant from the Federal Highway Administra-
tion for approximately $2,000,000 (50%). Twenty percent of the remaining
$2,000,000 will be paid for by the City, and 30% by Minnesota and
IV-16
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Hennepin County. The funding has been authorized informally and offi-
cial approval is anticipated very shortly.
c. Management and Enforcement Responsibility
Management of the system will rest with the City of
Minneapolis and enforcement of the traffic regulations will remain with
the police now in force on the affected streets.
d. User Acceptance
There may be resistance to the system from travelers
who, during peak travel periods, are diverted from their intended direc-
tion and must find alternate routes to their destination. Opposition
may arise from truckers and other delivery services (Postal Service,
etc.) who may find it difficult to follow their accustomed routes. These
problems are not expected to be sufficient to interfere with the system's
implementation, but may reduce its efficiency for a few months until
travelers have become accustomed to it.
e. Political Feasibility
There are no political problems anticipated at this late
stage in the planning.
f. Economic Impact
Implementation of the traffic management system will
change the flow of traffic, but is not expected to increase the total
number of vehicles that regularly enter the city. Thus no significant
economic impact is expected.
IV-17
-------
C. EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES RECOMMENDED FOR ST. PAUL CENTRAL
BUSINESS DISTRICT (CBD)
1. Central Business District Fringe Parking
The creation of bulk parking facilities at the fringe of
the St. Paul CBD is part of the present policy of both the city of St.
Paul and the downtown business community. The parking concept for the
*
St. Paul area includes:
. "Long-term employee parking in structures located
on the periphery of the core on the minor arterial
system.
Executive parking in limited quantity located con-
venient to place of employment and in structures.
Shopper, business and patron parking in struc-
tures and very convenient to destinations.
Errand parking off-street and well distributed
with regulation and pricing to encourage short
stays.
Eliminations of all on-street parking in the re-
tail and office areas."
Operation '85, the development arm of the downtown business association,
has proposed specifically that bulk parking (open lots) be developed in
three locations:
(1) Civic Center Ramp area to Chestnut Street and
between Seventh Street and Shepard Road.
(2) The area of the railroad yards east of the Union
Depot and east of the new Toni facility between
Kellogg and Fifth Street.
*
Transportation Plan for the St. Paul Core Area, Bather, Wolsfeld,
Inc., July, 1970, p. 22.
IV-18
-------
(3) The state capitol area including all the area
not in public ownership south of Arch Penn be-
tween Rice and Jackson Streets.
Together, these lots would provide parking spaces for 10,000 cars, and
could be expanded, as necessary, as multi-level facilities.
a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
The City of St. Paul has the authority necessary to
acquire land for parking purposes. Several legal steps would be neces-
sary, however, to implement the Operation '85 plan. In the case of the
Civic Center area, additional land would need to be acquired by the
Housing and Redevelopment Authority to expand the capacity of the Civic
Center Ramp. Long-term agreements for the use of the area near the Bur-
lington Northern Tracks would need to be drawn between the railroad,
City and parking lot operators. In the vicinity of the Capital complex,
an urban renewal program of acquisition and clearance would need to be
established involving the Capital Approach Planning Commission and the
Housing and Redevelopment Authority, with the support of the City and
other organizations cited. All of these legal actions are possible within
several months, or a year maximum.
b. Financial Requirements
The cost of the parking program outlined above has not
been determined. However, since open lots are planned initially, the
total cost should be relatively low. Operation '85 has recommended that
the Industrial Bond Act currently used by the Port Authority of St. Paul
be amended by the next State Legislature to include parking ramps and
IV-19
-------
parking lots in the scope of possible funding activities. This would
permit private parking lot operators to enjoy the benefits of public
acquisition of land and lower financing. If this option is not approved
by the legislature, then the land could be acquired privately or by
the City of St. Paul.
In order to further encourage drivers to park in the
fringe lots, steps must be taken to discourage peak hour travelers from
parking downtown. This can be accomplished by prohibiting the construc-
tion of large CBD parking facilities and controlling the price of down-
town parking.
The City has the authority to restrict construction of
downtown parking ramps through zoning. However, the St. Paul Housing
and Redevelopment Authority presently requires that developers provide
1 stall for every 1500 square feet of office space. A change in this
requirement will require approval by the Redevelopment Board, and a vote
of the City Council and approval by the Mayor.
Another mechanism for discouraging downtown parking is
the control of parking fees. This approach is understood by the busi-
ness community to be unfair to downtown lot operators whose revenues
would be likely to drop. The City of St. Paul now has the authority to
set maximum parking rates, but not minimum. Given local opposition to
this approach, it is not likely that the City council would approve an
expansion of the City's authority for this purpose.
IV-20
-------
c. Management Responsibility
As currently conceived, the proposed parking facilities
would be managed and operated privately. This does not pose any obstacles
to the implementation plan.
d. Economic Impact
The overall economic impact of this plan is expected to
be positive, in that now vacant or underutilized land will be put to a
more productive purpose. As long as convenience and executive parking
is not curtailed, there should be no negative economic impact on down-
town businesses and retail stores.
e. Political Feasibility
There is no major opposition to the plan at present, and
approval by the City Council is anticipated.
f. User Acceptance
Use of the parking facilities by travelers downtown will
depend primarily on the convenience of the linkage to the core area.
It is expected that this will be accomplished initially through the sky-
way system and a shuttle bus service, and eventually by a people mover
system. The first two alternatives will be operative by 1977.
2. Shuttle Bus Service
A recommendation has also been made by Operation '85 to
operate a shuttle bus service connecting the bulk parking facilities,
IV-21
-------
including the capitol area, with the downtown area. The following
routes are being considered: During the hours of 7:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.
and 3:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. buses would run on Fourth Stree from the
Civic Center Ramp on the west, to and through a bulk parking area owned
by the Burlington Northern on the east; from 9:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. buses
will also make a loop through the Seventh Street retail area. The shuttle
bus service would supplement the expanding skyway system and could be
supplanted by the people mover system proposed for a later time.
The Metropolitan Transit Commission's unified work program for
calendar year 1973 includes a circulation and collection/distribution
study for St. Paul to begin in the third quarter of 1973 and continue for
6 months. The total cost of the study would be $50,000, of which the
Urban Mass Transportation Administration would pay two-thirds. They
indicate that the study "may lead to the design of a transportation center
with facilities for the fast link systems, shuttle bus systems, and other
bus services all interfacing with the St. Paul skyway system."
a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
The Metropolitan Transit Commission has the authority
to operate a shuttle bus service in downtown St. Paul.
b. Financial Requirements
Financing is available to conduct the study, and addi-
tional funds would be needed to purchase, operate and maintain the shuttle
Memorandum: Unified Work Program, CY 1973. To Transit Develop-
ment Committee from Cam Andre, Oct., 1972.
'IV.22
-------
buses. Two-thirds funding would probably be available through the
UMTA Capital grants program for purchase of the buses. Operation and
maintenance would have to be supported by a fare or by taxes.
c. Management Responsibility
The Metropolitan Transmit Commission would have respon-
sibility for managing the program.
d. Economic Impact
The service would be expected to improve the economic
situation of downtown businesses. Without it, concentration of parking
on the fringe of the CBD could discourage growth in the core area.
e. Political Feasibility
The shuttle bus service has the support of the down-
town business community as well as local governing agencies. No political
obstacles are anticipated.
f. User Acceptance
Acceptance of the service by users will depend on the
waiting and travel times, and the quality of the wait and the ride. If
the buses operate on short headways and in special bus lanes, and if
waiting can be done in a heated, attached bus shelter, the service should
be successful.
3. Auto Free Malls
*
The Transportation Plan for the St. Paul Core Area recom-
mends an auto free mall on Seventh Street between Jackson and Wabasha.
Bather, Wolsfeld, Inc. July, 1970.
IV-23
-------
Auto free malls have also been proposed for Fourth and Minnesota. Only
shuttle buses would operate on these streets.
a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
Implementation of this plan would require approval of
the Mayor and City Council. There are no legal problems associated with
closing the streets to automobile traffic.
b. Financing Alternatives
There are several ways in which the street improvements
needed for the malls could be financed. One approach would be to desig-
nate the area a benefited district and assess the abutting property
owners in proportion to the benefits they receive. The revenues collec-
ted from the benefit assessment could be used to repay the bonded debt
for the improvements. Another possibility would be to request to the
state Legislature that the area be declared a special development dis-
trict. This would permit the increment in tax revenues over the base
year to be used to finance these and possibly other improvements. The
City of St. Paul could also use general tax revenues to pay for the pro-
ject. Given these alternatives and the financial capacity of the City,
financial considerations do not appear to be an obstacle to the project.
c. Management Responsibility
Management of the project would depend, in part, on how
it was financed, but would rest ultimately with the City of St. Paul.
d. Economic Impact
The economic impact of the Seventh Street Mall is likely
to follow that of Nicollet Mall in Minneapolis where retail business has
IV-24
-------
improved substantially. In recognition of this potential, Operation '85
and the downtown business community have spoken out in favor of the pro-
posal.
e. Political Feasibility
The only potentially significant political obstacle to
auto free malls could arise from the truckers unions who may need to
make deliveries to the stores and business along the mall. This opposi-
tion can be overcome by improving off-street loading facilities at the
rear of the buildings or making other arrangements to accommodate this
need.
f. User Acceptance
The Nicollet Mall in Minneapolis has enjoyed great pop-
ularity among shoppers and sightseers and the malls proposed for St. Paul
can be expected to bring the same response.
4. Traffic Signal System
Improvements to the traffic signal system have been proposed
in St. Paul's TOPICS plan and are supported by this air quality implemen-
tation plan.
a. Legal Authorization and Requirements
The Department of Public Works of the City of St. Paul,
with approval of the Mayor and City Council, has the authority to imple-
ment changes to the traffic signal system and street network.
IV-25
-------
b. Financial Requirements
The improvements proposed will be supported by the Fed-
eral Highway Administration's TOPICS program. Informal commitment of
funds has been made and formal approval is expected.
c. Management and Enforcement Responsibility
The City of St. Paul will retain responsibility for
operating the signal system.
d. Economic Impact
The TOPICS program will improve traffic flow and thereby
encourage more people to travel into the downtown area. This should have
a small, but beneficial, economic impact.
e. Political Feasibility
There is no political opposition to the TOPICS program.
f. User Acceptance
Since the system will improve mobility in the downtown
area, it should be welcomed by downtown drivers.
IV-26
-------
V. SELECTION OF TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS AND ESTIMATE OF AIR QUALITY
IMPACT
From the above presentation of the candidate strategies and their
obstacles for the Minneapolis and St. Paul CBD's, the strategies of:
express bus service, and
. auto-free malls
were stated to have a negligible impact on the density of vehicular travel;
effectiveness of emission controls and vehicle speed and/or traffic flow.
Consequently these two strategies were estimated to have negligible impact
on the level of vehicular emissions in the CBD's. The following candi-
date strategies, however, do have a significant influence on vehicular
emissions and their impact is evaluated in this section of the report:
MINNEAPOLIS CBD
Strategy 1: Fringe parking combined with people mover
system estimated to reduce 1977 light duty
VMT's by 8%.
Strategy 2: Traffic surveillance and control estimated
to increase average speed in Minneapolis
CBD from 14 mph to 20 mph by 1977.
ST. PAUL CBD
Strategy 1: Fringe parking combined with shuttle bus
service estimated to reduce 1977 light
duty VMT's by 10%.
Strategy 2: Traffic signal system estimated to increase
average speed in St. Paul from 12 mph to
18 mph by 1977.
V-l
-------
TABLE V-l
IMPACT OF CANDIDATE STRATEGIES ON CO EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY IN CBD'S
CBD
Minnea-
polis
St. Paul
Area
(Sq.
Miles)
2.2
0.8
EMISSION
"Safe"
Emission
Density
1971 Level
12,822 6,100
12,617 6,100
DENSITY (kg/sq. mile/12 hours)
1977: No
Transport.
Controls
Applied
6,571
6,488
1977
Appl. of
Strategy
#1
6,164
5,983
1977
Appl. of
Strategies
#1 & #2
4,703
4,664
AIR QUALITY (Highest 8-Hour
CO Concentration in ppm)
Ambient
Air
Quality
1971 Standard
18.9 9
18.6 9
1977: No
Trans p.
Controls
Applied
9.7
9.5
1977:
Appl. of
Strategy
#1
9.1
8.8
Average
1977
Appl. of
Strategies
#1
6.9
6.8
-------
Table V-l summarizes the impact of these strategies on total emis-
sions and on air quality in the two CBD's. Examination of this table
indicates that CO ambient Air Quality Standards are approximated in both
the Minneapolis and St. Paul CBD's by application of the #1 candidate
strategy: Fringe parking and accompanying people mover or shuttle bus
system. By additionally applying the second strategy in the CBD's,i.e. traffic
surveillance and control in Minneapolis and a traffic signal system in
St. Paul, the air quality is upgraded to levels well below the 9 opm
standard.
Based on the results illustrated in Table V-l, GCA recommends that
the two strategies for each CBD presented here be implemented
If fringe parking and accompanying shuttle transportation to the core
area were adopted in both CBD's without traffic surveillance and control,
it is unclear from the inherent accuracy band of the data, whether CO
standards can indeed be achieved. Implementation of traffic surveillance
and control procedures as well, will provide enough margin of safety to
confidently assure that the standard can be achieved.
V-3
-------
VI. SURVEILLANCE REVIEW PROCESS
There are three levels of surveillance review that are recommended
to MPCA for each of the control measures adopted, and these review
levels are:
Reviewing progress in implementing selected control measures
. Reviewing impact of control measures on VMT and/or traffic
flow in CBD's
Reviewing impact of control measures on air quality.
Each of these areas of surveillance will be discussed below.
A. IMPLEMENTATION OF SELECTED CONTROL MEASURE
Figures VI-1 and VI-2 present Surveillance Review Milestones
which indicate the dates at which critical activities, necessary for the
successful implementation of each strategy, are currently planned to be
completed. These figures show milestones for the implementation of all
candidate strategies presented in Sections III and IV, including two,
Express Bus Service for Minneapolis and Auto Free Malls in St. Paul, which
were not included in Section V as part of the recommended control meas-
ures. They are included here as additional information in the likeli-
hood that they are recommended by MPCA.
B. IMPACT OF CONTROL MEASURES ON TRAFFIC PATTERNS
Table VI-1 presents the effect of the recommended control meas-
ures as presented in Section V on the 1977 VMT's and the traffic flow
conditions for both CBD areas. The surveillance program utilized
VI-1
-------
EXPRESS BUS SERVICE
Construction
Operation
Evaluation
Continuation
CBD FRINGE PARKING
Legal restrictions on
downtown parking
PEOPLE MOVER SYSTEM
Finance
Management
Legal
Construction
TRAFFIC MANGMT. SYSTEM
Finance
Construction
Evaluation
II Complete bus ramps
Pretest control equipment
Begin full operation
14 I End of demonstration phase
Complete "before" measurements
I Q I Complete "after" measurements
Decision to continue program
|| Legislative approval of development district or
2 Council approval of revised zoning ordnance
Informal UMTA approval
Decision on local financing scheme
I I Formal UMTA approval
4 Selection of system manager
Ie I Agreements with property owners
g I Begin construction
Formal FHWA approval for construction funding
Let bids
Contractor selected & gets authorization to proceed
Contractor orders equipment
IgI Equipment received & construction begins
6 Operation begins
Take "after" measurements
72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Figure VI-1. Surveillance review milestones - Minneapolis.
-------
CBD FRINGE PARKING
Legal
Finance
Operation
SHUTTLE BUS SERVICE
Planning
Design
Finance
Operation
AUTO FREE MALLS
Legal
Finance
Design
Construction
TRAFFIC SIGNAL SYSTEM
Finance
Construction
Evaluation
"|~~| Obtain right to use vacant land
1' Acquire land near capitol
3 Change zoning ordinance to restrict downtown parking con-
—I struction
14 I Council approval of bonds for parking facilities
5 Open Phase I lots
| Complete study
Complete design
Obtain UMTA grant approval
Order equipment
5 I Begin operation
I Mayor and council approve plan
Decide on financing scheme
Implement financing program
Complete design
Begin construction
'Obtain formal FHWA approval for construction funds & authorization to
let bids
Bid letting
I 3 I Contractor selected & orders equipment
Contractor receives equipment
5 Construction begins
Begin annual data collection
~72'73 ' 74 '75 76 77~
Figure VI-2. Surveillance Review Milestones - St. Paul
78
-------
TABLE VI-1
EFFECT OF RECOMMENDED CONTROL MEASURES ON VMT'S AND TRAFFIC FLOW FOR
THE MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL CBD'S
CBD
Minneapolis
St. Paul
Area
2.2
0.8
Ligftt Duty VMT's
1977:
No
1971 Controls
266,000 321,000
96,500 116,500
(12 hours)
1977:
Recommended
Controls
296,000
105,000
Average Traffic
1971: 1977:
No No
Control Control
14
12
14
12
Speed on Arterials (mph)
Recommended Controls
20
18
-------
to determine progress in attaining these 1977 conditions should include
the following considerations:
1. Traffic Density
Estimates of annual daily traffic (ADT) are made from periodic
surveys conducted by the Traffic Divisions or Section of the Municipal
Departments of Public Works. From these data, updates of traffic density
estimates on the CBD streets can be made following the procedures illus-
trated in this study. Annual trends should be maintained from these esti-
mates and compared with the baseline 1971 and 1977 estimates. From such
updates the gross measure of traffic flow can be made.
2. Traffic Operating Speeds
These data were basically derived by the Traffic Engineering
studies performed by the municipalities. These data are gathered by a
number of means. The "floating car" method is perhaps the most suitable.
In this technique, a car is driving in mixed traffic at various times of
the day and the average speed along determined route segments measured.
By these sampling techniques average speed is determined which is weighted
against prevailing volumes. Data should be obtained on a before-and-after
improvement basis to determine speed trends.
3. Travel Behavior Inventories
Data obtained by sampling procedures, either conducted for
transportation study updates by the Highway Department, the Twin Cities
Area Transportation Department, or established under other special pur-
VI-5
-------
poses, should be analyzed and compared with basic data in the latest
Travel Behavior Inventory used in projecting travel demand in this study.
These updates should indicate meaningful developing trends in person
trips, trip purposes, origins and destinations, car ownership, and other
socioeconomic travel factors. Changes in these data from predicted
trends should be assessed as to the impact upon VMT projections made
here.
4. Parking Facility Inventory
The surveillance program should maintain inventories of
number, type and location of core parking spaces to monitor the planned
shift of availability of these from core to fringe of the downtown. Pro-
files of user characteristics should be developed and updated periodically
to detect shifts in these patterns from planned objectives. Development
of new centers of core activity should be monitored to assure that the
parking policies are being followed.
5. Micro-System Circulation
Whether fringe parking is successful will depend upon the
pedestrian augmentation provided. Therefore the surveillance program
should monitor their development against the implementation schedule.
Patronage volumes and use patterns will probably be determined as part
of facility development. Trends in these data should be assessed against
the assumed developments incorporated in this study.
VI-6
-------
C. IMPACT OF CONTROL MEASURES ON AIR QUALITY
Figures VI-3 and VI-4 indicate the predicted effect of the
transportation control measures recommended in Section V on CO air quality
in the two CBD areas. These figures can only be used as guides, however,
due to the unpredictable nature of meteorological parameters which will
greatly affect 8-hour average CO concentrations.
Both figures indicate that air quality will tend to improve
linearly due to the Federal Vehicle Control Program but with no additional
transportation controls. Since both recommended controls in Minneapolis,
namely fringe parking and people mover systems, are not scheduled for par-
tial completion until 1976, a straight line relationship was assumed be-
tween 1975 where no effect of controls of air quality is expected, and
1977 where the highest 8-hour average CO concentration of 6.7 ppm is
projected.
For St. Paul, fringe parking is anticipated to commence in 1975
with the opening of the Phase I lots. Shuttle bus operation as well as
the traffic signal system will not be operational until 1976. A straight
line relationship was therefore assumed between 1974 where no effect of
control on air quality is expected and 1977 where the highest 8-hour
average concentration of 6.6 pptn is estimated.
VI-7
-------
0)
o
00
_
Q
O
O
i s
O
O
UJ
h-
O
Ul
19
18 -
17 -
16
15
14
13
12
10
9
8
7
Without Control Measures
61
1971
With Control Measures
Ambient Standard
Figure VI-3. Affect of Control Measures on CO Air Quality
for Minneapolis CBD.
1
1
1972 1973 1974 1975
YEAR
1976
1977
1978
1979
-------
« 19
o
00
18
<
VD
1 17
to 16
s l5
o
O |4
E
a .3
>-
-. 12
O ||
g:
< 10
o
UJ
*- Q
O 9
UJ
-5
Without Control Measures
With Control Measures
Ambient Standard X ^.
Figure VI-4. Affect of Control Measures on CO Air Quality
for St. Paul CBD.
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
YEAR
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
-------
APPENDIX A
LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED ABOUT THE IMPLEMENTATION
OF CANDIDATE STRATEGIES
Bob Benke, Transportation Planner for Highway Department
Don Cosgrove, St. Paul City Planning Department
Thomas Duffee, Downtown Council, Minneapolis
Chuck Ewert (with Consultant) Operation 85, St. Paul
John Jameson, Transit Commission
Burt Johnson, Minnesota Highway Patrol
Dave Koski, Minneapolis, Traffic Engineer
Fritz Marshall, State Highway Department
Dick Meyer, Metro Council
Bob Moffet, City Coordinator's Office, Minneapolis
Bob Peterson, Traffic Engineer, St. Paul
Bob Ready, Minneapolis, City Planning Department
A-l
-------
APPENDIX B
EVALUATION OF THE CANDIDATE STRATEGY REJECTED FOR
MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL: VEHICLE PERFORMANCE INSPECTION
The vehicle performance inspection discussed with the candidate
strategies for Minneapolis-St. Paul was rejected, in large part because
of the difficulty of implementing such a program. The major local ob-
stacles to its implementation are discussed here.
Legal Authorization and Requirements
The Metro Clean Air Council will propose the necessary legislation
in the January session for a mandatory engine performance inspection
program. The bill will include provisions that vehicles be given an
idle test within 20 days of their sale (new or used) and annually. A
similar bill has been proposed twice before and failed. Although it has
higher level commitment than before, it is not expected to pass.
Financial Requirements
The cost of a vehicle performance inspection would be high. If two-
man teams were used, each testing about 50 cars per day in conjunction
with the safety inspection, 80 to 100 people would be needed for only
that portion of the cars that receive a safety inspection. Additional
funds would be needed for equipment, certification of garages, enforce-
ment and follow-up. Spme of this money could come from the state highway
funds, but the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency would be expected to
support it in part.
E-l
-------
Management and Enforcement Responsibility
The logical candidate for managing and enforcing a vehicle inspec-
tion program would be the Highway Patrol within the State Department of
Public Safety, since enforcement would clearly require a uniformed officer.
However, this agency is not interested in undertaking an engine performance
inspection, since they see it serving public health purposes and not safety
purposes. This leaves the state without an appropriate agency for imple-
menting the program.
Economic Impact
An engine performance inspection has several problems in Minnesota
of an economic nature. An important consideration is the difficulty of
finding a garage to make the necessary repairs. While this is not dif-
ficult in the major metropolitan centers, there is a shortage of repair
garages of any type in the more rural parts of the state. This could
make the cost of repairs in rural areas very high.
A vehicle inspection program also discriminates against the poor,
since they are usually the drivers of older cars which have maintenance
problems and require repair. If the repairs were expensive, the program
could curtail their mobility.
User Acceptance
The vehicle performance tests would take at least 10 minutes if it
were an idle test, and longer for other types of tests. On either a spot
check on mandatory basis, this could aggravate drivers and turn them
against the program. This problem, combined with the high cost of operating
the program and the vehicle owner's need to make sometimes costly repairs
could make it very unpopular.
B-2
-------
APPENDIX C
EMISSIONS WITHIN MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL CBD'S
WITHOUT CONTROL STRATEGIES
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YcAR IS 1971
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS CARBON MONOXIDE
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1959 TO 1972
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
ZONE
NO.
1
2
AREA
(SQ.MI)
2.200
o.eoc
LIGHT
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
24P47.52
3075.13
DUTY
L-MISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SO.MI)
11294.32
11093.91
HEAVY
tMISSIONS
(KGM)
3062.51
1109.36
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SO.MI)
1392.05
1386.70
OTHER
cMISSIGNS
(KGM)
59.19
21.63
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
26.90
27.04
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
27969.21
10006.12
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
12713.28
12507.65
Note: Zone I = Minneapolis CBD
Zone 2 - St. Paul CBD
-------
CITY OF MINN/SI PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1971
REGION NU. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1959 TO 1972
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
ZONE
NO.
1
2
AREA
(SQ.MI)
2.200
0.800
LIGHT
EMI-SSIUNS
(KGM)
300P.94
1063.55
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SO.MI)
13b7.70
1354.44
HEAVY
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
535.90
195.57
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
243.59
. 244.46
OTHER
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
9.74
3.56
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
4.43
4.45
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
3554.58
12P2.6P
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MU
1615.72
1603.34
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1977
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS CARBON MONUXIOt
MODtL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1965 TO 1978
LENGTH OP TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY - LIGHT DUTY
ZljJNE AREA EMISSIONS EMISSION
NO. DENSITY
(SQ.MI) (KGK) (KGM/SQ.MI)
HEAVY DUTY
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SO.MI)
OTHER
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/i>Q.MI)
TOTAL
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SO.MI)
n
I
2
2.200
O.POO
11456.03
4099.PI
5207.29
5124.76
2643.46
961.61
1201.57
1202.01
71.84
26.12
32.66
32.66
14171.33
5087.54
6441.51
6359.42
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1977
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1965 TO 1978
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE-
CATEGORY -
ZONE
NO.
1
2
AREA
(SQ.MI)
2.200
0.800
LIGHT
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
1276.76
460.25
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
575.31
HEAVY
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
433.25
158.50
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
196.93
198.13
OTHER
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
11.82
4.30
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
5.37
5.3,7
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
1721.85
623.05
EMISSION
DENSITY
{KGM/SQ.MI
782.66
778.81
-------
CITY Of- rtINN/Sr PAUL CALENDAR YLAR IS 1976
REGION Mu. 3 POLLUTANT SPHCIES IS CARBON MuNUXIDt
KJOEL YFARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 19o6 TO 1979
LirNGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY - LIGHT
n
on
ZONE
NO.
1
2
ARL-A ^ISSIUNS
(SO.HIJ (KGM)
2.200 9365.43
0.80C 3352.90
DUTY
H
EAVY
cMISSIUN C'-IISSIONS
0£NSI TY
(KGM/SO.MI)
4257.02
4191 .12
( KG>1
2514
914
)
.32
.08
DUTY OTHER
hMISSION f-MISSIONS
Dt-^SlTY
(KGM/SQ.MI) (KGM)
1142.87 74.15
1142. s>0 26. 9o
EMISS
0 L ^i S I
I UN
TY
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1978
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
KODfL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 19o6 TO 1979
LC-NGTH OF TIMt PtRIOD TS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY - LIGHT DUTY
ZONE ARhA EMISSIONS EMISSION
NO. DENSITY
(SO.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SO.MI)
HtAVY DUTY
EMISSIONS EMISSION
Dl-NSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SO.MI)
OTHER
['MISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KbM/S&.MI)
TOTAL
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KoM/SQ.M;
2.200
1070.05
3H5.S1
496.39
4B2 .26
4-10.58
150.03
100.63
137.54
4.43
5.54
1492. f3
540.26
67P.56
675.35
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1979
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS CARBON MONOXIDE
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1967 TO 1980
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE-
CATEGORY -
ZONE
NO.
0
1
2
ARl:A
(SO. MI)
2.200
0.300
LIGHT
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
7569.73
2711.63
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
3440.79
3389.54
HEAVY
EMISSIONS
( KGM )
2385.29
868.21
DUTY
c MISS ION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
1084.22
1085.26
OTHER
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
76.52
27.82
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI )
3-t.78
34.77
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
10031.53
3607.67
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
4559.79
45C9.58
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1979
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1967 Tu 1V8C
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
ZONE
NO.
n
oo
1
2
AREA
(SO. MI)
2.2CC
0.800
LIGHT
tHISSIJNS
(KGM)
073.49
315.04
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(K3M/SQ.MI)
397.04
393.80
HEAVY
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
389.45
142.40
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSi FY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
177.02
178.00
OTHER
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
12.59
4.53
EMISSION
OcNSITY
( KGM/SQ.MI)
3.72
5.72
TOTAL
tMISSIONS
(KGM)
1275.53
462.02
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
579.79
577.52
-------
APPENDIX D
EMISSIONS WITHIN URBAN ACTIVITY DISTRICTS (UAD'S) IN MINNEAPOLIS
AND ST. PAUL METROPOLITAN AREAS
Note: Zone # = UAD
Minneapolis 1 52
2 53
3 54
4 55
5 56
6 63
7 64
8 65
9 66
10 67
11 68
12 69
St. Paul 13 79
14 80
15 81
16 82
17 83
18 89
19 90
20 91
21 92
22 93
D-l
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1971
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS CARBON MONOXIDE
MODEL YFARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1959 TO 1972
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD is 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
LIGHT DUTY
AREA EMISSIONS
HEAVY DUTY
EMISSIONS
OTHER
EMISSIONS
ZONE AREA EMISSIONS EMISSION EMISSIONS EMISSION EMISSIONS EMISSION
NO. DENSITY DENSITY DENSITY
(SO.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
5.280
8.600
5.040
5.480
5.960
1.400
5.560
5.600
5.200
4.080
2.600
6.200
6.000
3.120
6.600
3.200
6.880
3.S40
13.430
4.430
7.2PO
3.300
5441.68
12169.34
10106.74
13790.92
15970.82
5455.07
19319.31
10155.53
3070.59
6840.69
6903.33
8804.84
8902.09
4899.15
P411.14
9704.57
13761.82
4514.44
3934.01
7795.28
F047.50
4908.48
1030.62
1415.04
2005.31
2516.59
2679.67
3896.48
3474.70
1813.49
1552.04
1676.64
2655.13
14/70.14
1483.68
1570.24
1274.42
3032.68
2727.01
1175.64
662.76
1740.02
1105.43
1291.^0
623.67
1394.68
1158.28
15P0.52
1830.34
625.14
2214.09
1163.84
924.93
7»>3.93
79 1 . 1 8
1009.10
1485.48
817.49
1561.55
1619. 3P
3130.68
753.28
1490.81
1300.76
1342.87
819.09
118.12
162.17
229.82
2PP.42
307.10
446.53
398.22
207.83
177.87
192.14
304.30
162.76
247.58
262.01
236.60
506.05
455.04
196.17
110.59
290.35
184.46
215.55
38.84
90.58
83.21
97.34
120.03
41.96
152.24
77.78
63.86
57.15
58.54
71.11
72.62
40.76
63.96
P2.76
136.15
35.23
72.11
62.78
60.43
35.72
7.36
10.53
16.51
17.76
20.14
29.97
27.38
13.89
12.28
14.01
22.51
11.47
12.10
13.06
9.69
25. P6
19.79
9.17
5.35
14.01
8. 30
9.40
6104.19
13654.60
11348.23
15468.78
17921.19
6122.17
21685.63
11397.15
9059.37
7681.77
7753.04
9885.04
10460.18
^757.39
l^v.36.66
11406.70
22028.65
5302.95
10496.92
9158.82
9450.80
5763. 2P
1156.10
1587.74
2251.63
2822.77
3006.91
4372.98
3900.29
2035.21
1742.19
1882.79
29P1.94
1594.36
1743.36
1845.32
1520.71
3564.59
3201.84
1380.98
778.70
2044.38
1298.19
1516.65
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YCAR IS 1971
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1959 TO 1972
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
ZONE
NO.
1
o 2
W 4
5
6
7
P
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
AREA
(SO. MI)
5.280
8.600
5.040
5.480
5.960
1.400
5.560
5.600
5.200
4.080
2.600
-i.200
6.000
3.120
6 . 600
3.200
6.880
3.840
13.480
4.4P0
7.280
3.800
LIGHT
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
940.17
2154.79
1833.52
2380.77
2836.24
980.96
3515.40
1817.25
1467.67
1283.31
1307.21
1622.21
1625.08
902. Rl
1477.70
1812.40
3226.19
807.50
1621.31
1412.91
1408.26
844.11
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
178.06
250.56
373.71
434.45
475.88
700.69
632.27
324.51
282.24
314.54
502.77
261.65
270.85
289.36
223.89
566.38
468.92
210.29
120.28
315. 3P
193.44
222.14
HEAVY
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
146.98
335.64
290.27
372.96
441.17
152.22
544.12
281.98
226.93
197.41
200.86
250.43
365.92
202.83
372.69
406.lt.
735.21
182.75
365.47
318.53
319.84
192.28
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
27.84
39.03
57.59
68.06
74.02
108.73
97.86
50.35
43.64
48.39
77.25
40.39
60.99
65.01
56.47
126.93
106.86
47.59
27.11
71.10
43.93
50.60
OTHER
EMISSIONS E
D
(KGM) (K'
6.39
14.90
13.69
16.01
19.74
6.90
25.04
12.79
10.50
9.40
9.63
11.70
11.94
6.70
10.52
13.61
22.39
5.79
11.86
10.33
9.94
5.87
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
1.21
1.73
2.72
2.92
3.31
4.93
4.50
2.28
2.02
2.30
3.70
1.89
1.99
2.15
1.59
4.25
3.26
1.51
0.88
2.30
1.37
1.55
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
1093.54
2505.33
2187.47
2769.74
3297.14
1140.09
4084.56
2112.02
1705.11
1490.12
1517.70
1884.33
2002.94
1112.34
1R60.92
2232.18
3983.79
996.05
1998.63
1741.76
173P.04
1042.27
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
207.11
291.32
434.02
505.43
553.21
814.35
734.63
377.15
327.90
365.23
583.73
303.92
333.82
356.52
281.96
697.56
579.04
259.39
148.27
388.79
23P.74
274.28
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1977
RFGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS CARBON MONOXIDE
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1965 TO 1978
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY - LIGHT DUTY
ZONE AREA EMISSIONS EMISSION
NO. DENSITY
(SQ.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI)
HEAVY DUTY
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI)
OTHER
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI)
TOTAL
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
5.280
8.600
5.040
5.480
5.960
1.400
5.560
5.600
5.200
4.080
2.600
6.20C
6.000
3.120
6.600
3.200
6.880
3.840
13.480
4.480
7.230
3.800
2561.81
5728.69
4F55.29
6487.21
7548.45
2583.04
9168.84
4807.09
3*31.47
3261.39
3295.36
4185.67
4225.85
2128.69
3970.60
4624.00
8825.80
2135.49
4237.32
3578.84
3795.29
2309.48
485.19
666.13
963.35
1183.30
1266.52
1845.03
1649.07
858.41
736. F2
799.36
1267.45
675.11
704.31
632.27
601.61
1445.00
1282.82
556.12
314.34
798.35
521.33
607.76
629.36
1423.28
1235.69
1589.54
1878.17
646.51
2308.6V
1201.32
965. F7
833.91
845.93
1060.75
1552.35
787.23
1433.01
1718.37
3148.93
775.69
1552.21
1310.73
1365.39
824.47
119.20
165.50
245.13
290.06
315.13
461.79
415.23
214.61
185.75
204.39
325.36
171.09
258.73
252.32
217.12
536.99
457.69
202.00
115.15
292.57
1P7.55
216.97
46.07
107.44
98.68
115.44
142.36
49.78
180.57
92.25
75.78
67.78
69.41
84.35
36.13
48.35
75. R 3
98.17
161.48
41.80
85.52
72.17
71.6"
42.35
8.72
12.49
19.58
21.07
23.89
35.56
32.48
16.47
14.57
16.61
26.70
13.61
14.36
15.50
11.50
30.68
23.47
10.89
6.34
16.11
9.85
11.14
3237.23
7259.40
6189.66
"192. IP
9568.97
3279.33
11658.09
6101.16
4873.12
4163.0"
4210.70
5330.77
5864.33
2964.27
5479.49
6440.54
12136.21
2952.98
587 5. C4
4961.74
5232.36
3176.31
613.11
844.12
1228.11
1494.92
1605.53
2342.38
2096.78
1089.49
937.14
1020.36
1619.50
859.80
977.39
950.09
830.23
2012.67
1763.98
769.01
435.83
1107.53
718.73
"35.67
-------
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1977
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
MODEL YFARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1965 TO 1978
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY - LIGHT DUTY
ZONE AREA EMISSIONS EMISSION
NO. DENSITY
(SO.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.HI)
OTHER
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI)
TOTAL
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SQ.MI)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
5. 2*0
8.600
5.040
5.480
5.960
1.400
5.560
5.600
5.200
4.080
2.600
6.200
6.000
3.120
6.600
3.200
6.300
3.840
13.4*0
4.480
7.230
3.800
381.15
870.07
762.67
966.17
1147.06
396.29
1418.65
734.10
592.05
516.27
525.55
653.66
655. 3*
341.93
597.88
729.27
1308.71
326.43
654.21
552.16
570.31
342.34
72.19
101.17
151.32
176.31
192.46
233.07
255.15
131 .09
113.86
126.54
202.13
1C5.43
109.23
109.59
90.59
227.90
190.22
85.02
4R.53
123.25
78.34
90.09
124.76
2P5.52
251.99
315.85
376.63
130.31
467.22
241.40
195.11
170.68
173.87
215.63
314.45
162.69
235.66
350.92
623.26
156.15
313.68
264.74
272.18
163.08
23.63
33.20
50.00
57.64
63.19
93.08
84.03
43.11
37.52
41.83
66.87
34.78
52.41
52.14
43.28
109.66
90.59
40.67
23.27
59.09
37.39
42.92
7.58
17.67
16.23
18.99
23.42
8.19
29.70
15.17
12.46
11.15
11.42
13.87
14.17
7.95
12.48
16.15
26.56
6.88
14.07
11. P7
11.79
6.97
1.43
2.05
3.22
3.46
3.93
5.85
5.34
2.71
2.40
2.73
4.39
2.24
2.36
2.55
1.89
5.05
3.86
1.79
1.04
2.65
1.62
1.83
513.48
1173.26
1030.90
1301.01
1547.11
534.79
1915.56
990.67
799.62
b98.10
710.84
883.16
983.99
512. 5P
896.02
1096.33
1958.54
489.51
981.96
P2P.77
854.28
512.39
97.25
136.43
204.54
237.41
259.58
381.99
344.53
176.91
153.77
171.10
273.40
142.45
164.00
164.29
135.76
342.60
284.67
127.48
72.85
1P4.99
117.35
134.84
-------
APPENDIX E
IMPACT OF STRATEGIES ON EMISSIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL CBD'S
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1977
R-rGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS CARBON MONOXIDE
MOO:;L YEARS CONSIDERED is PROM 196S to 197P
L;N3TH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 boon
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
ARt* EMISSIONS
SP.^Il (KGM)
Minn.
CBD
(I:
2CC
2CO
st. rm.it c.?cc
CM) \ O.ECC
10557.24
7905.32
3695.74
2330.11
DUTY
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/SO.MI)
HEAVY
C-HISSIONS
(KGM)
DUTY
EMISSION
DcNSITY
IKGM/SQ.MII
OTHER
EMISSIONS El
Dl
CKG.1I (Kl
4798.7*
3593.33
4ol9.68
3537.6*
2548.13
2085.64
961.61
771.53
12C3.72
948.0?
1202.01
964.41
71. R4
71.84
26.12
26.12
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGH/SO.HI)
32.66
32.66
32.66
32.66
TOTAL
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) IKGM/SO.MI)
Strategic
13277.26
10062.79
4683.47
3627.76
6035.12
4574.00
5854.34
4534.70
1
1+2
1
143
-------
CTTY OF HINWST PAUL CALE»JDA<« YEAR IS 1977
*~SIO» M). :, "OLLUTANT S?"CI?£ IS
HOOEL YcARS CUMSIDtREf) IS FRuN 1965 TO 1975
LIV^TH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12
VSnlCLi
CA
7 \ '
Him. /
dO I
St. P«nl{
OB
TFr J'Y
A3C-A
2.20C
2.2CC
c.scr
C .*"!?
LI^HT
EHISSIiJNS
1176.41
991. C3
414.39
352.33
DUTY
EMirSION
DENSITY
-------
APPENDIX F
EMISSIONS WITHIN KSTP TOWER AREA WITHOUT CONTROL STRATEGIES
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1971
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPbCIdS IS CARBON MOi\(OXIDL
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 19b9 TO 1972
LENGTH OF TIME PtRIUD IS 12 HOURS
LIGHT DUfY
ARIA EMISSIONS
ZONE ARIA EMISSIONS cMISSION
NO. DENSITY
(SQ.KI) (KGM) (KbM/Su.rtI) (KGM)
HEAVY DUTY
EMISSIONS EMISSION
(KGM/i,Q.MI )
OTHER
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM)
TuTAL
EMISSIONS
(KGM)
EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM/ SO. MI)
1.130
2322.31
2055.14
229.20
202.63
14.70
13.00
2566.20
2270.98
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CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YEAR IS 1971
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
MCDtL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1959,TO 1972
LENGTH OF TIME PERIOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY -
LIGHT DUTY
ZONt
NO.
AREA EMISSIONS.
(KGM)
^MISSION
DENSITY
HEAVY DUTY
EMISSIONS EMISSION
DcNSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SW.MI)
OTHER
tMlSSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KG»/SQ.MI)
TOTAL
tMISSIONS EMISSION
DENSITY
(KGM) (KGM/SQ.M
1.130
356.e>6
53.90
47.70
2.42
2.14
459.35
406.50
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CITY UF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR YtAR IS 1977
REGION NO. 3 POLLUTANT SPtCIES IS CARBON MONOXIDE
MUDEL YEARS CONSIDERED is FROM 1965 to 19?£
LENGTH OF TIKE PERIOD is 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CATEGORY - LIGHT DUTY HEAVY DUTY uTHEK TOTAL
/LONE AREA EMISSIONS .EMISSION EMISSIONS EMISSION EMIooiONS cMIiiluN EMISSIONS EMISSION
NO. DENSITY DENSITY UtNSlTY DENSITY
(SQ.Mi) (KGK) (ixGM/SQ.MI) (KGH) (KGM/SO.MI) (KGM) (KuM/Su.MI) (K^rt)
1.130 1116.60 968.14 238.32 21U.90 17.76 15.71 1372.67 1214.75
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CITY OF MINN/ST PAUL CALENDAR .YEAR IS 1977
REGION Nu. 3 POLLUTANT SPECIES IS HYDROCARBONS
MODEL YEARS CONSIDERED IS FROM 1965 TO 1976
LENGTH OF TIME PERFOD IS 12 HOURS
VEHICLE
CAlfcGQRY -
LIGHT DUTY
HtAVY DUTY
OTHER
TOTAL
A:U;A LMISSIUNS {'.MISSION EMISSIONS uMiisiuN ^MISSIONS EMISSION EMISSIONS EMISSION
NU. DENSITY DENSITY DENSITY DENSITY
(SU.M1) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.t«II) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI) (KGM) (KGM/SQ.MI)
1.13C
165.69
1^6.80
-^6.95
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APPENDIX G
PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATION DATA FOR AQCR 131
FROM WHICH VEHICLE AGE DISTRIBUTION WAS DERIVED
REGISTERED PASSENGER CARS IN MINNESOTA AS OF JULY 1, 1970
^\^^ County
Yeair^X.
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
1959
1958
1957
1956
1955
Prior to 1955
Year not Given
TOTAL
Anoka
1,157
1,589
1,638
1,586
1,672
1,616
1,354
1,321
1,071
793
658
364
178
230
148
128
356
3
15,862
Carver
857
1,058
1,013
1,081
1,170
1,115
921
782
628
410
359
245
125
128
92
100
323
0
10,407
Dakota
3,421
3,728
3,748
3,687
3,704
3,817
2,890
2,563
2,103
1,429
1,217
637
325
368
254
234
618
3
34,756
Hennepin
51,970
60,373
55,335
53,498
40,732
49,453
38,128
33 , 684
28,083
18,444
14,783
7,897
3,718
4,354
2,968
2,633
6,691
84
481,828
Ramsey
22,394
26,179
25,515
24,673
23,721
24,350
18,950
17,089
14,152
9,497
7,844
4,105
2,080
2,270
1,505
1,261
3,251
38
228,874
Scott
1,845
2,347
2,349
2,206
2,227
2,095
1,699
1,417
1,066
767
629
372
189
228
145
126
373
1
20,081
Washington
2,343
2,738
2,600
2,612
2,737
2,829
2,353
2,003
1,657
1,196
1,043
614
313
319
227
190
509
1
26,284
Total
83,987
98,012
92,198
89,343
84,963
85,275
66,295
58,859
48,760
32,546
26,533
14,234
6,928
7,897
5,339
4,672
12,121
130
818,092
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I. Title and Subtitle
BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA
SHEET
1. Report No,
APTD-1447
3, Recipient's Accession No.
Transportation Controls to Reduce Motor Vehicle
Emissions in MinneapoliSrSt, Pay!, Minnesota.
5. Report Date
December 1972
6.
7. Aurhor(s)
8. Performing Organization Kept.
No.
'• Performing Organization Name and Address
6CA Corporation
GCA Technology Division
Bedford, Massachusetts
10. Project/Task/Work Unit No.
DU-72-B895
11. Contract/Grant No.
68-02-0041
12* Sponsoring Organization Name and Address
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711
13* Type of Rep
Fin%Ted
Report 12/15/72
14.
is. supplementary Notes Prepared to assist in the development pftransportation control olans
by those State Governments demonstrating tnat N&tional Ambient Air Quality Standards
cannot be attained by implementing emission standards for stationary sources only.
16. Abstracts
The document demonstrates the nature of the Air Quality problem attributed to motor
vehicle operation, the magnitude of the problem and a strategy developed to neutralize
these effects in order that National Ambient air quality standard may be attained and
maintained.
17. Key Words and Document Analysis. 176, Descriptors
Motor Vehicle emitted pollutants - air pollutants originating within a motor vehicle
and released to the atmosphere.
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
Air Quality Standards promulgated by the
Environmental Protection Agency and pub-
lished as a Federal Regulation in the
Federal Register.
17b. Identifiers/Open-Ended Terms
VMT - Vehicle Miles Traveled
Vehicle Mix - distribution of motor vehicle population by age group.
LDV - light duty vehicle - less than 65QO Ibs,
HDV - heavy duty vehicle - greater than 6500 Ibs,
i7c. COSATI Fieid/GroW Environmental Quality Control of Motor Vehicle Pollutants
18. Availability Statement
For release to, public
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Report)
UNCLASSIFIED
20. Security Class (This
"""UNCLASSIFIED
21. No. of Pages
all
22. Price
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