tnvironmsntal Protection
Agency
Environmental Research
Laboratory
Athens GA 30605
EPA-600'3-78-102
December 1978
Research and Development
Environmental
Implications of
Trends in
Agriculture and
Silviculture
Volume II
Environmental
Effects of Trends
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are:
1. Environmental Health Effects Research
2. Environmental Protection Technology
3 Ecological Research
4. Environmental Monitoring
5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
6. Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
7. Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
8. "Special" Reports
9. Miscellaneous Reports
This report has been assigned to the ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH series. This series
describes research on the effects of pollution on humans, plant and animal spe-
cies, and materials. Problems are assessed for their long- and short-term influ-
ences. Investigations include formation, transport, and pathway studies to deter-
mine the fate of pollutants and their effects. This work provides the technical basis
for setting standards to minimize undesirable changes in living organisms in the
aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
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EPA-600/3-78-102
December 1978
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRENDS
IN AGRICULTURE AND SILVICULTURE
Volume II: Environmental Effects of Trends
by
Samuel G. Unger
Principal Investigator
Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc.
Manhattan, Kansas 66502
and
The Tuolumne Corporation
Corte Madera, California 94925
Contract No. 68-03-2451
Project Officer
George W. Bailey
Environmental Research Laboratory
Athens, Georgia 30605
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
ATHENS, GEORGIA 30605
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Environmental Research Laboratory,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, Ga., and approved for publica-
tion. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the
views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does
mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.
-------
FOREWORD
Environmental protection efforts are increasingly directed towards pre-
venting adverse health and ecological effects associated with specific com-
pounds of natural or human origin. As part of this Laboratory's research on
the occurrence, movement, transformation, impact, and control of environmental
contaminants, management or engineering tools are developed for assessing and
controlling adverse environmental effects of non-irrigated agriculture and of
silviculture.
Agricultural and silvicultural practices, already significant sources of
water and air pollution, represent areas of increasing environmental concern
as these production systems expand to meet growing population needs. This
study assesses the environmental implications and effects of short- and long-
term trends in American agriculture and silviculture and identifies research
needs and policy issues. The developed information should benefit environmen-
tal managers as they attempt to anticipate pollution problems of the future.
David W. Duttweiler
Director
Environmental Research Laboratory
Athens, Georgia
m
-------
PREFACE
The results of this research study, the "Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture," are presented in two parts:
Volume I: "Trend Identification and Evaluation," and Volume II: "En-
vironmental Effects of Trends."
Volume I identifies, defines, rates, and rank-orders the most important
environmentally related trends within all major subsectors of agriculture
and silviculture. The environmental ratings and rankings were made by
selected panels of professionals from throughout the nation on the basis
of the Contractor's interim report of trend-by-trend assessments. Over
240 specific subtrends, representing over 70 trend groupings, were eval-
uated across five panel areas — subsectors of agriculture and silvi-
culture. These panel areas were: (1) nonirrigated crop production, (2)
irrigated crop production, (3) feedlot production, (4) range and pasture
management, and (5) silviculture and harvest management. Separate sec-
tions of the Volume I report are devoted to each of these panel areas
of study.
Volume II extends the environmental assessment for major trends from each
panel area, primarily from the crop production subsectors. Ultimately,
the main evaluations of Volume II were assessments of each trend's probable
ecological effects, i.e., aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health
impacts. These evaluations were also completed by professionals in a work-
shop setting on the basis of the Contractor's background summary of de-
tailed findings for each trend-subtrend. Volume II also contains an
assessment of continuing research needs and prospective policy issues
involving agriculture and silviculture and environmental quality management.
Throughout the study both short-term (1985) and long-term (2010) effects
were evaluated, although emphasis was placed on the long-term. Further-
more, the study considered the beneficial as well as the adverse effects
of trends in agriculture and silviculture to recognize that the nation's
environmental quality can perhaps be as readily enhanced through the pro-
motion of beneficial trends as through the control of adverse trends.
Finally, the research approach of this study relied heavily upon the value
judgements of professionals from agriculture and silviculture. We believe
that the composite, informed professional judgements presented here are
most reflective of the environmental implications of trends in agriculture
and silviculture.
IV
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ABSTRACT
This study assessed those trends in U. S. agriculture and silviculture which
will have the most significant environmental implications, either beneficial
or adverse, in the short-term (1985) and in the long-term (2010).
The study's findings are reported in two parts. Volume I identified relevant
trends and rated their environmental implications for five major subsectors
of agriculture and silviculture: (1) nonirrigated crop production, (2)
irrigated crop production, (3) feedlot production, (4) range and pasture
management, and (5) silviculture and harvest management. Volume II extended
the environmental effects analysis of selected major trends from each sub-
sector, primarily the identification of major ecological impacts of the major
trends on aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health. A second study
workshop was conducted to ascertain probable ecological effects where data
constraints currently exist.
Volume II also contains the study's identification of research needs germane
to a more definitive assessment of the environmental and ecological effects
of the five subsectors, and the study's development of prospective policy
issues which are likely to emerge from the five subsectors.
The research needs range widely, but were classified into four primary re-
search categories: production efficiency, pollution measurement, pollution
reduction, and ecological impact. A fifth category, extensiveness research,
completes the framework of research needs, but this category is largely out-
side EPA's primary areas of responsibility. The prospective pollution con-
trol policy issues discussed all emanate from three basic policy areas:
control of wastes from production processes, control of polluting inputs,
and control of management practices to reduce pollutants generated. Each
subsector of agriculture and silviculture has both research needs and pros-
pective policy issues within these four research categories and within the
three basic pollution control policy areas, as reported.
This report was submitted in fulfillment of EPA Contract No. 68-03-2451 by
Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., Manhattan, Kansas, and
its subcontractor, The Tuolumne Corporation, Corte Madera, California,
under the sponsorship of the Environmental Protection Agency. Work was
completed as of December 1977.
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CONTENTS
FOREWORD jii
PREFACE iv
ABSTRACT v
LIST OF EXHIBITS ix
ACKNOWLEDGMENT x
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xiii
I. INTRODUCTION 1
A. Scope of Study 2
B. Phase II Procedures 2
C. The Ecology Workshop 4
II. ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS ASSESSMENT 5
A. Agriculture Sector Trends 7
1. Runoff and Erosion Control 7
2. Conservation Tillage 14
3. Improved Water Application 19
4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants 27
5. Scouting and Integrated Control 31
6. Development of New Biological and Chemical
Pesticides 33
7. Methods of Nutrient Application 35
8. Soil-Plant Analysis 40
9. Alternative Residual Disposal 41
10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates 42
B. Silviculture Sector Trends 45
1. Access to Timber Resources 45
2. Site Preparation 51
3. Log Extraction 57
4. Utilization 59
5. Cutting System 63
III. RESEARCH NEEDS 65
A. Agriculture Sector Research Needs 66
Production Efficiency Research Needs 66
Pollution Measurement Research Needs 72
Pollution Reduction Research Needs 73
Ecological Impact Research Needs 74
B. Silviculture Sector Research Needs 75
Production Efficiency Research Needs 75
Pollution Measurement Research Needs 77
Pollution Reduction Research Needs 77
Ecological Impact Research Needs 78
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CONTENTS (Continued)
IV. POLICY ISSUES
A. Agriculture Sector Policy Issues
Crop Production Subsector - Soil and Water
Management
Crop Production Subsector - Nutrient Manage-
ment
Crop Production Subsector - Pesticide Manage-
ment
Feedlot Production Subsector - Residual Disposal
Management
Range and Pasture Management Subsector -
Grazing Management
Range and Pasture Management - Renovations and
Improved Management
B. Silviculture Sector Policy Issues
Silviculture Production Sector - Harvest
Management Function
Silviculture Production Sector - Stand Control
Management
Silviculture Production Sector - Damage Control
Management
BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX A --
APPENDIX B --
79
80
80
83
84
86
86
87
88
89
91
92
94
DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED
AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND THE ECOLOGY WORKSHOP
EVALUATION SUMMARY 106
DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED
SILVICULTURAL TRENDS
204
vm
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LIST OF EXHIBITS
Number Page
II-l Summary of top ranked (vis-a-vis their environmental
implications) Phase I trends in agriculture and silvi-
culture including identification of Phase II trends 6
II-2 Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in
agriculture 8
II-3 Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in
silviculture 46
III-l Summary of agriculture sector research needs by trend
and research category 67
III-2 Summary of silviculture sector research needs by trend
and research category 76
IV-1 Summary of agriculture sector policy issues by manage-
ment function and basic policy area 81
IV-2 Summary of silviculture sector policy issues by manage-
ment function and basic policy area 90
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Many individuals and work groups participated in this research study. In
particular, Dr. George W. Bailey, Environmental Research Laboratory, EPA,
Athens, Georgia guided the study as Project Officer. Thomas E. Waddell,
Office of Research and Development, EPA, Washington, D. C. assisted with
the coordination of research efforts and provided liaison support.
Special thanks go to Richard L. Duesterhaus and Glen H. Loomis, Office of
Environmental Quality Activities, U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
and the associated interagency (USDA-EPA-University) Ad Hoc Subcommittee
on the Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture.
This work group reviewed the study's plan of work, made constructive com-
ments, and subsequently recommended participants for the Evaluation Work-
shop that reviewed the Contractor's initial work. These recommendations
included professionals of many disciplines from USDA, the universities,
and the private sector who are located throughout the nation. All phases
of agriculture and silviculture were considered via the assistance of this
Subcommittee and its affiliation with the Office of the Secretary, U. S.
Department of Agriculture.
Particularly important to this study, also, were the individual and combined
efforts of the evaluation workshop participants (both in the Volume I and
Volume II portions of study) who assessed the environmentally-related trends
in agriculture and silviculture, 1976-2010. These participants, as briefly
named below by panel area, are identified further within the report. DPRA
sincerely acknoledges their contributions.
Range and Pasture Management
. Glen D. Fulcher, Ch.
John L. Launchbaugh
James M. Scholl
John Studeman
Silviculture and Harvest Management
. Gary Margheim _ Noel Larson, Ch.
. Walt H. Wischmeier _ George Dl-ssrneyer
Warren C. Harper
Irrigated Crop Production Stanley J Ursic
. Roy S. Rauschkalb, Ch. ; David D_ Wooldridge
. Charles M. Hohn
Gerald L. Horner
R. Eugene Merrill
Nonirri gated Crop Product!
•
George M. Browning, Ch.
William L. Col vi lie
Pierre L. Crosson
Velmar W. Davis
Victor J. Kilmer
Ralph L. Leonard
on
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Feedlot Production
. Raymond C. Loehr, Ch.
. Daniel D. Badger
D. Eugene Becker
. Bartley P. Cardon
James K. Koelliker
Agriculture-Ecology Panel
. Lloyd C. Hulbert
H. Page Nicholson
Fred W. Oehme
. Walt H. Wischmeier
. John L. Zimmerman
Within DPRA and the Tuolumne Corporation, many professional staff and
consultants assisted with the preparation of this report: Dr. Raymond
E. Seltzer, Arthur C. Barker, Dr. Gary A. Davis, Dr. S. McCallum King,
Al H. Ringleb, and Rita D. Walker contributed importantly. From the
Tuolumne Corporation, the principal contributors were Peter Arnold,
James L. Zeigler, and Dr. F. Bruce Lamb.
Samuel G.
Principal
Unger
Investigator
-------
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This "Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture"
study for the Environmental Protection Agency determined and assessed those
trends in U.S. agriculture and silviculture which will have the most signi-
ficant beneficial or adverse environmental implications in the short-term
(1985) and the long-term (2010). Volume I identified those trends and
evaluated their environmentally germane developments in all major sub-
sectors of agriculture and silviculture. Volume II presents a detailed
assessment of the environmental effects of selected major trends and of
their related research needs and prospective policy issues involving pollu-
tion controls in agriculture and silviculture.
Two phases of research (Volumes I and II) were involved in the study. The
present volume, Phase II, extends the trend identification research of
Volume I by further examining those trends which were evaluated as having
relatively greater environmental implications. In particular, for those
selected trends as shown in Exhibit 1, more detailed trend-subtrend assess-
ments were completed to determine: (1) their current and expected exten-
siveness of use, (2) their associated productivity changes, (3) their ef-
fects on resource-use patterns, and (4) their expected pollutant changes
by media (water, air, and land) in relation to conventional practices.
On the basis of these analyses, each subtrend's ecological effects were
also estimated.
For the agriculture sector's trend assessment, an ecology workshop was
conducted to determine the expected ecological effects of the selected
trends and subtrends. A panel of professional ecologists and agricultur-
alists utilized the Contractor's preliminary report of findings (Appendix
A) to rate, on an index scale, both the adverse and the beneficial eco-
logical effects associated with each subtrend. For the silviculture sec-
tor's trend assessment, a comprehensive literature search was completed,
including an analysis of each subtrend's known or anticipated ecological
effects (Appendix B). In general, relatively more environmental and eco-
logical effects research has been completed for silviculture, and hence,
a workshop evaluation approach was not considered necessary for this
sector.
For both agriculture and silviculture, three principal categories of
ecological effects were assessed for each subtrend: aquatic life, ter-
restrial life and human health effects. For the silviculture sector,
two additional categories were assessed—aesthetics and recreation oppor-
tunity. These latter environmentally-related effects categories are
especially important in silviculture and are often a principal concern
of forest management practices.
xiii
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Exhibit 1. Trends and suhtrcnd* in agriculture and silviculture
selected for Phase II assessment
Sector/Trends
Subtrcnd
A. AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Crop Production
\.Runoff and Erosion Control
2. Conservation Tillage
3. Improved Water Application
4. Improvement Seed and Plants
5.
6.
Scouting and Integrated
Controls
Development of New Bio-
logical and Chemical
Pesticides
7.
Methods of Nutrient
Application
8. Soil-Plant Analysis
Feedlot Production
9. Alternative Residual
Disposal
Range and Pasture Management
10. Grazing Practices and
Stocking Rates
1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping
1.2 Terraces and grass waterways
1.3 Optimizing time of operations
1.4 Narrow rows
1.5 Winter cover crop
2.1 No-tillage
2.2 Reduced tillage
3.1 Furrow basins
3.2 Land grading
3.3 Sprinklers
3.1 Recycling and controlling tailwater
3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency
4.1 Weather resistance
4.2 Salt resistance
4.3 Production efficiency
4.4 Disease and insect resistant
5.1 Surface scouting
5.2 Remote sensing scouting
5.3 Integrated controls
6.1 Micro-encapsulated
6.2 Systemic pesticides
6.3 Surfactants for herbicides
6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides
6.5 Alternative formulations
6.6 Juvenile hormones
6.7 Pheromones
6.8 Sterile males
6.9 Predators and parasites
7.1 Foliar application
7.2 Multiple application
7.3 Fall application
7.4 Liquid fertilizer
7.5 Aerial and floater application
7.6 Improved nutrient placement
7.7 Irrigation application
8.1 Soil-Plant analysis
9.1
Off-site disposal—solids and
liquids
10.1 Continuous grazing
10.2 Specialized grazing
10.3 Complementary forage seedings
10.4 Controlled livestock grazing
B. SILVICULTURE SECTOR
1. Access to Timber Resource
2. Site Preparation
3. Log Extraction
4. Utilization
5. Cutting System
1.1 Permanent road construction
1.2 Road maintenance
1.3 Project road construction
1.4 Road reconstruction
2.1 Log extraction
2.2 Mechanical preparation
2.3 Burning prescription
2.4 Chemical treatment
2.5 Fertilizer treatment
2.6 Soil moisture control
3.1 Harvest unit layout
3.2 Equipment use and development
4.1 Extraction residue recovery
A.? Minimum size and quality extension
4.3 Sprcii:'. use enlargement
5.1 Clearcutting
XIV
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Following the ecological effects assessments for agriculture and silviculture,
a comprehensive review was made of both Phase I and Phase II developments
to identify the continuing research needs and policy issues (particularly
for nonpoint sources of pollution) of agriculture and silviculture related
to the anticipated problems of controlling these sources of pollution.
Results of the Study
Three main types of results were obtained in this study: (1) the identifi-
cation of the environmental and ecological effects of leading trends in
agriculture and silviculture, (2) the identification of their related re-
search needs, and (3) the identification of their related policy issues.
Each of these are summarized as follows:
1. Environmental and Ecological Effects
A principal result of this Phase II research was the environmental analysis
of selected trends and subtrends from both agriculture and silviculture, in-
cluding an assessment of each subtrend's ecological effects.
Exhibit 2 summarizes the ecological effects ratings of the ecology workshop
for the subtrends assessed in the agriculture sector. These ratings,
either beneficial (+) or adverse (-) on a scale of 1 (minor) to 5 (major)
relative to 1976 conditions were made for the short-term (1985) and long-
term (2010). Separate ratings, as shown, were made for aquatic life, ter-
restrial life and human health effects. The workshop concluded that aquatic
life and terrestrial life effects of agriculture's trends and subtrends are
not expected to change significantly on the national level by 1985; however,
moderate to important changes can be expected by 2010 under the study's base-
line agricultural growth assumptions (Volume I). For the most part, the
changes are expected to be beneficial, rather than adverse, as illustrated
in Exhibit 2. For example, trends in runoff and erosion control and in
conservation tillage methods in the cropland production subsector will gen-
erally have beneficial aspects. Their net effect is not clear, however,
when both beneficial and adverse changes are predicted. Human health ef-
fects are generally expected to be minor with little anticipated differences
from current conditions for most of the agriculture trends and subtrends
assessed.
For the silviculture sector, similar assessments were made based on litera-
ture search findings as discussed in detail in Section II. In addition,
the aesthetic and recreation opportunity effects of silviculture's trends
and developments are evaluated, since in many cases, these effects are of
primary concern. Because of silviculture's long growth-harvest cycles,
many of the aquatic, terrestrial, and human health effects are, relative
to those of agriculture, rather short-lived. Most practices which alter
forest sites, e.g., access, harvest or site preparation, will, however,
have potential adverse effects, including more extended aesthetic and
recreation opportunity impacts.
xv
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Exhibit 2. Summary of ecological effects ratings of trends and subtrends In the agriculture sector
X
<
Trend
Crop
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Feed
Production
Runoff and Erosion Control
Conservation Tillage
Improved Hater Application
Improvement Seed and Plants
Scouting and Integrated
Controls
Developnent of Hew Bto-
logiccl and Chemical
Methods of Nutrient
Application
Soil Plant Analysis
lot Production
1.
1 .
1.
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
4.
4.
4.
4.
5.
5.
5.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6
e.
7.
7.
7.
7
7
7
7.
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
G
7
8
9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8.1
Subtrend
Ecological
Effects Rating
Aquatic fern-
1985
Contour fanning/contour strip cropping +1
Terraces and grass waterways +1
Optimizing time of operations +1
Harrow rows
Winter cover crop
No-tillage
Reduced tillage
Furrow basins
Land grading
Sprinklers
0
0
+2; -\-'
+2--1
-2
-1
-1
Recycling and controlling tallwater +2
Irrigation scheduling and efficiency +1
V.'eather resistance
Salt resistance
Production efficiency
0
0
0
Disease and Insect resistant +Z
Surface scouting )
Remote sensing scouting )
Integrated controls
Micro-encapsulated
SysUrilc pesticides
Surfactants for tiiiuidties
Bio-degradable pesticides
Alternative formulations
Juvenile hormones
Phcromones
Sterile males
Predators and parasites
Foliar application
Multiple application
Fall application
Liquid fertll Izer
+1
+1
•H
+j
0
+1
-2
0
Aerial and floater application 0
Improved nutrient placement «
Irrigation application "'
Soil plant analysis
+1
2010
+4
+3
+1
+1
+1
+3-.-1
+3;-l
-3
-1
-2
+3
+1
0
-1
-1
+4
+3
+4
+3
+3
0
+1
-3
0
0
0
-v
+2
19S5
Index
+1
+1
+1
0
0
0
0
-2
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
0
0
0
0
*1
0
0
0
stnal
?cT6~
+3
+3
+2
+1
+1
0
0
-3
-1
-1
-1
+1
0
-1
0
*3
+3
+4
+2
+3
0
+1
0
0
+2
0
0
0
Hu '.in
T9n5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
+1
0
0
0
0
+1
0
0
+1
+1
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
HiMlth
2010
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
-1
-1
0
+1
0
0
0
0
+2
+1
+2
+2
+3
0
0
-1
0
0
p
0
T.Alternative Residual
Disposal
Rango and Pasture Management
~T6T Grazing Practices and
Stocking Rates
9.1
Off-site disposal- solids and
liquids
10.1 Continuous grazing
10.2 Specialized grazing
10.3 Complementary forage seedlngs
10.4 Controlled livestock grazing
-1
0
+1
+2
0
+1
+2
0
+1
+1
+3
-1
»3
-1
0
0
0
Index rating - beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scsle of 1 to 5, where 1 • minor. 2
3 • moderate, 4 • Important, and 5 • major.
Aquatic effects of no-till and reduced tillage were divided Into two areas. The^ir.
cide use with those practices.
United.
-------
2. Research Needs
A continuing need exists to improve the information and data base for con-
ducting meaningful environmental effects assessments in agriculture and
silviculture. In this study, four categories of research needs were enum-
erated and discussed:
1. Production efficiency research
2. Pollution measurement research
3. Pollution reduction research
4. Ecological impact research
A fifth research category, extensiveness research, is also implicitly re-
quired; however, this research is generally beyond EPA's primary responsibility,
Production efficiency research is necessary to assess the direct and indirect
pollution effects of those technologies used to improve production yield and
efficiency. Pollution measurement research is needed to determine the actual
types and quantities of pollution generated by alternative agricultural and
silvicultural production processes under various environmental conditions.
Pollution reduction research is needed to assess the effects of alternative
methods to reduce the generation of pollutants. And, ecological impact re-
search is needed to quantify the various types of environmental and eco-
logical effects associated with both individual and composite production
activities.
A detailed summary of this study's identified research needs for the agri-
culture sector is presented in Exhibit III-l of the text. Specific re-
search needs are arranged by agriculture subsector and by the above four
research categories. A similar summary for the silviculture sector is
shown in Exhibit 111-2.
Insofar as the control of pollution is a principal goal of EPA, two of
the above research categories, i.e., production efficiency research and
pollution reduction research, are of primary importance. Production ef-
ficiency research, for instance, is an indirect form of pollution control,
for improvements in production efficiency will inhibit the expanded use of
potentially polluting resources to meet specified output levels. Pollu-
tion reduction research examines those activities and resources which,
when applied, will directly affect pollution levels.
Of important note is the finding of this Phase II study that it is pre-
sently impossible to specify an established and detailed, heirarchical
delineation of research needs. The study's workshop recognized that it
is not readily apparent which research activities would have the greatest
expected environmental effects. Present knowledge, for instance, is in-
sufficient to determine whether it is better to expand research to develop
improved seeds and plants to enhance production efficiency or whether to
develop improved no-till methods for run-off and erosion control in order
to most effectively control pollution levels in the future.
xvn
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The following examples of research needs as defined for the various sub-
sectors of agriculture and silviculture in the production efficiency and
the pollution reduction research categories are illustrative of both the
findings and the complexity of the environmental implications of trends in
agriculture and silviculture:
Sector/Subsector
Agriculture Sector
. Crop Production
Type of Research Need
Production Efficiency Pollution Reduction
. Feedlot Production
. Range and Pasture
Silviculture Sector
. Harvest Management
. Stand Control
Develop more efficient
farm implements for
soil and water manage-
ment.
Develop more resistant
seeds and plants, in-
cluding resistance to
weather, insects, salt
and nematodes.
Develop sources, both
legume and non-legume,
of biological nitrogen
fixation.
Develop more effective
integrated pest control
systems including im-
proved, more effective
chemical and biological
pesticides.
Assess the efficiency
and feasibility of
recycling wastes in
feeding rations
Develop more effective
grazing systems utiliz-
ing innovations such as
complementary forage
seedings.
Determine optimum level
of utilization of bio-
mass in commercial
forests and means of
projecting environmen-
tal effects under
varying cutting levels.
Determine minimum
amount of site pre-
paration to meet
requirements for
regeneration.
Develop and determine
effectiveness of alter-
native reduced tillage
methods for lowering
pollutant losses, e.g.,
nutrients, pesticides,
sediment.
Develop and determine
the feasibility of
water renovation
through filtering
and desalting.
Develop fertilizers
designed to reduce
pollution effects,
e.g., micro-
encapsulation.
Evaluate ration rotation
as a means of reducing
the potential build-up
of copper, arsenic, and
sodium derived from
feed rations.
Determine kinds, volumes,
and sizes of material
that should be left
on site to aid in
controlling pollution
resulting from varying
levels of utilization.
Develop equipment to
minimize pollution effects
of site preparation.
XVI11
-------
Besides these examples of production efficiency and pollution reduction
research needs which can either directly or indirectly affect pollution
levels in the future, numerous research requirements, as summarized in
Exhibits III-l and III-2 of the report, involving pollution measurement
and ecological impacts are also needed. Such monitoring activities are
essential within the context of research both to better understand the
impacts of pollution in the environment and to assess the progress of de-
velopments in agriculture and silviculture.
3. Policy Issues
The third major result of this study was its identification of prospective
environmental policy issues which emerge as a consequence of the environ-
mental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture. Such issues
are germane because of EPA's legislative requirements (such as under the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act, PL 92-500) to establish effective pol-
lution controls for both point and non-point sources.
Agriculture and silviculture pollution control can be attained in only three
basic ways:
(a) the control or treatment of wastes generated by production
systems;
(b) the control of use of polluting inputs; and
(c) the control of management practices to reduce pollutants
generated.
Policy issues arise as a direct consequence of the consideration of public
measures to influence any or all of these control approaches.
A general summary of the policy issues identified in this study, categorized
by the three types of control as indicated, is presented in Exhibit IV-1 in
the report. For both the agriculture and silviculture sectors, policy is-
sues involving the control or treatment of wastes, jDer se^ may generally
lack' feasible implementation alternatives because of the dispersed and
fugitive nature of non-point sources of pollution. Consequently, rela-
tively more policy issues were identified in relation either to the control
of inputs or to the control of management practices. The following examples
of policy issues germane to input and management practice controls are
illustrative of the findings of this study by subsector of agriculture and
silviculture.
xnx
-------
Basic Policy Area
Sector/Subsector Control of Inputs
Agriculture
. Crop Production
Affect the amounts
and types of resources
used, including land,
nutrients, pesticides,
water, etc.
Control of Management
Practices
Affect run-off and erosion
controls, conservation
tillage practices, water
application practices,
wind erosion controls,
crop sequencing practices,
and others.
Feedlot
Production
Affect land-use off-
site disposal require-
ments, and feedlot size.
Range and Pasture
Management Affect use of land,
nutrients and pesti-
cides.
Silviculture
. Harvest Manage-
ment, Stand Con-
trol and Damage
Control
Affect use of land,
nutrients and pesti-
cides.
Develop and affect use of
alternative residual dis-
posal methods. Control
practices via feedlot size.
Affect grazing practices
and stocking rates.
Affect access developments,
site preparation practices
and fire control practices.
The policy issues identified here are stated without specific consideration
of the type of implementation method which may be feasible or most prac-
ticable. In actuality, alternative implementation methods may be appli-
cable, e.g., regulations, economic incentives, education, or public invest-
ments. Further, various indirect policy issues, such as foreign agricultural
trade issues, were not assessed in this study, yet such issues will exo-
genously affect environmental quality management needs in the agriculture
and silviculture production sectors of the U.S. economy.
xx
-------
SECTION I
INTRODUCTION
As was documented in Volume I of this two-volume report, the agriculture
and^silviculture sectors of the U. S. economy are major contributors of
environmental pollution. However, because these pollutants are generally
widely dispersed, their environmental effects are often uncertain; and,
based upon available data, neither the scope nor the full effects of agri-
cultural and silvicultural pollutants are accurately known.
The goal of this research was not to isolate agriculture's and silviculture's
absolute contribution to overall environmental pollution; rather, at best,
this study sought to determine the relative environmental effects that
trends and developments would likely have in the future vis-a-vis the cur-
rent environmental quality.
That is, the study basically asked: "What changes in environmental effects
are likely if trends and developments in agriculture and silviculture con-
tinue into the short-term (1985) and the long-term (2010)?" Within this
context, what specific trends (or component subtrends) may eventually pro-
duce either beneficial or adverse environmental effects in comparison to
current, conventional practices.
In Volume I of this study, the emphasis was toward trend identification and
a relative ranking of environmentally-related agricultural and silvicultural
trends according to their expected environmental implications—either bene-
ficial or adverse. Volume II extends the environmental assessment of the
most highly rated trends as determined in Volume I.
The Volume II assessment ultimately focused on the potential ecological ef-
fects of specific practices and probable developments, or subtrends, within
selected trends. The primary ecological effects evaluated were aquatic
life, terrestrial life and human health impacts. Additionally, however,
the assessment included a detailed analysis of each subtrend's extensive-
ness of use, productivity changes, resource use patterns, and pollutant
changes by media. This latter analysis provided the basis for an ecology
panel workshop for the agricultural sector in which the ecological effects
of each selected subtrend-trend were investigated.
-------
A. Scope of Study
This study for the Environmental Protection Agency sought to determine
and assess those current and emerging trends in U. S. agriculture and
silviculture which will have the most significant environmental impli-
cations—either beneficial or adverse. The two main objectives of the
analysis were:
(1) to assess the environmental implications and impacts of both
short-term (1985) and long-term (2010) trends in American
agriculture and silviculture, and
(2) to identify pertinent environmental issues, associated re-
search needs and policy issues.
To accomplish these objectives, two phases of work were involved in the
overall study:
Phase I, the subject of the Volume I report, determined on a
priority basis the major environmentally-related trends in agri-
culture and silviculture, and
Phase II, the subject of this Volume II report, assessed the en-
vironmental effects (particularly the ecological impacts) of
selected major trends, and identified associated research needs
and policy issues.
In the conduct of this research, evaluation workshops comprised of agri-
cultural, silvicultural, and other basic science professionals were util-
ized to rate, assess and modify, as needed the Contractor's Phase I and
Phase II preliminary findings. The Phase II workshop panel and procedures
are described more fully below.
B. Phase II Procedures
In preparation for the agriculture sector ecological effects workshop of
Phase II, the Contractor prepared an interim background summary for the
participants. This report documented for each subtrend its current and
projected extensiveness of use, productivity effects, resource use changes
and pollutant changes by media, and this documentation served as the in-
formation basis for the workshop assessment. (This background summary,
plus workshop evaluation forms, are included in Appendix A.)
In Phase II, a single panel of experts was selected to assess the ecolog-
ical effects of subtrends and trends in agriculture—covering all sub-
sectors, i.e., crop production (both nonirrigated and irrigated), feedlot
production, and range and pasture management. Subtrends and trends in
silviculture were separately assessed because of the significant differences
-------
of this sector's growth-production-harvest cycles and of generally inter-
mittent environmental-ecological effects of its activity in any given lo-
cation. This assessment of silviculture! trends was based principally on
research literature. A background summary of research findings and con-
clusions for the silviculture sector is included in Appendix B.
The ecology workshop participants for the agriculture sector met in general
sessions to assess and rate the potential change in ecological effects of
each subtrend within the selected trends. In particular, three types of
ecosystem effects were evaluated: aquatic life, terrestrial life and
human health. A fourth type of effect, wildlife habitat, originally pro-
jected by the Contractor, was determined by the workshop to be properly
considered within either the aquatic life or terrestrial life categories.
Hence, only three types of effect were included in the final analysis;
however, wildlife effects were frequently described within either the
aquatic or terrestrial categories.
With the Contractor's background summary as a guide, the workshop first
assessed the summary provided and modified the summary conclusions where
necessary. This discussion led to a common basis of understanding for
the subsequent ecological effects ratings for 1985 and 2010 relative to
1976 (or current conditions). Also, it was agreed that the assessment
would accept the Phase I (Volume I) workshop panels' judgements as to the
probable extensiveness of use of each of the subtrends in relative terms,
i.e., the index ratings of the direction and magnitude of each subtrend
as determined in Phase I. The Contractor supplemented these ratings with
quantified data whenever possible.
The workshop was asked to rate the direction and magnitude of change in
ecological effects which could be expected by 1985 and by 2010 from the
current period, 1976, as follows:
Relative
Type of Effect Direction Magnitude
Aquatic life I/ (+) = beneficial 1 = minor
Terrestrial life I/ (-) = adverse 2 = limited
Human health 3 = moderate
4 = important
5 = major
—/ Includes wildlife habitat
As was explained to the workshop, the rating scale from 1 to 5, or minor
to major, was purely judgemental not only within the panel, but to other
investigators. Nevertheless, the ratings and their dispersion across
subtrends-trends were deemed as important indicators of environmental ef-
fects. Furthermore, it was the objective of this workshop that "consensus"
ratings be obtained from the panelists--rather than completely independent
ratings. The rationale for this approach was that it would better inte-
grate the ideas and knowledge of these professionals and that while
-------
differences would exist, such differences would be best resolved through
qualifying remarks and their rationale for any given rating. (Note:
Further assessments of distributions in initial rating responses are de-
sirable, but they were not considered statistically useful in this study
since relatively few panelists were involved and pre-workshop ratings were
not specifically requested.)
C. The Ecology Workshop
The participants of the Phase II ecology workshop for the agriculture sector
represented a cross-section of professional scientists whose primary acti-
vities are directly involved with environmental and ecological effects of
man's activities. These participants and their principal areas of exper-
tise are as follows:
Participant Area of Expertise
Dr. Lloyd C. Hulbert Aquatic and terrestrial effects
Manhattan, Kansas
Dr. S. Mac King Agronomy, soils and environmental
Wheaton, Illinois effects of agricultural practices
Dr. H. P. Nicholson Human health and environmental
Athens, Georgia effects of pesticides in soil and
water
Dr. Fred W. Oehme Toxicology and human health effects
Manhattan, Kansas
Dr. Walt H. Wischmeier Runoff and soil erosion in relation
Lafayette, Indiana to alternative agricultural practices
Dr. John L. Zimmerman Aquatic and terrestrial effects, in-
Manhattan, Kansas eluding wildlife
-------
SECTION II
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS ASSESSMENT
Only selected trends in agriculture and silviculture, based on the Phase I
evaluation, were included in this Phase II environmental and ecological ef-
fects assessment. Each of the trends and associated subtrends included
were previously assessed as major environmentally-related trends by the
Phase I evaluation workshop. These trends are as outlined in Exhibit
II-l, below, and include ten trends from the agriculture sectors and five
from silviculture, as shown.
In order to conduct the more detailed environmental and ecological effect
assessment of Phase II, additional literature reviews were completed and
research findings were summarized. For the agriculture trends selected,
an interim background summary report was prepared and distributed to the
ecology workshop participants as a basis for their workshop evaluations.
This background summary material is included in Appendix A, and it pri-
marily contains data on the extensiveness of use of each subtrend, pro-
ductivity effects, resource use changes, and pollutant changes by media
for each subtrend compared to other related conventional practices. Spec-
ific references to the research findings as reported are also cited. For
the silviculture trends, a similar review of literature was completed as
summarized in Appendix B; however, a workshop assessment was not conducted.
The principal focus of the agriculture sector workshop assessment was on
each trend-subtrends' potential ecosystem impacts relative to current (1976)
conditions. In particular, three types of ecological effects were evaluated
and rated: aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health. Judgemental
rating values were determined for each type of ecological effect cor-
responding to either beneficial (+) or adverse (-) changes in effect on a
scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major, as explained in detail in
Section I, above. The workshop participants accepted the challenge of such
a relative rating approach, realizing the variability that obviously exists
in not only the presence of known pollutants but especially in the loadings
or dosage levels of pollutants as they interface with receptor organisms.
Ideally, ecological assessments would be conducted under much more rigorous
conditions with detailed quantitative statistics regarding pollutants, re-
ceptor characteristics such as assimilative capacities, organisms present,
end-uses, and others. Such data are generally meager, however, and pro-
fessional judgements are mandatory if even relative indicators of environ-
mental effects of agriculture's and silviculture's production activities
are to be obtained.
-------
Exhibit II-l. Summary of top ranked (vis-a-vis their environmental
implications) Phase I trends in agriculture and silviculture
including identification of Phase II trends
Phase I Phase II Trend
Agriculture Trends Workshop Rank Numbers: Agriculture
Runoff & Erosion Control (Nonirrigated) If
Conservation Tillage (Nonirrigated)
Improved Water Application (Irrigated)
Runoff & Erosion Control (Irrigated)
Improvement of Seeds & Plants (Nonirrigated)
Scouting & Integrated Controls (Non-
irrigated)
Developing New Biological & Chemical
Pesticides (Nonirrigated)
Feedlot Design for Waste Management
(Feedlot) _3/
Feedlot Size (Feedlot) _3/
Alternative Residual Disposal (Feedlot)
Method of Nutrient Application (Irrigated)
Grazing Practices (Range & Pasture)
Stocking Rates (Range & Pasture)
Developing Integrated Controls (Irrigated)
Renovation (Range & Pasture)
Soil Plant Analysis (Irrigated)
Odor Control (Feedlot)
Using Increased Resources (Range &
Pasture)
Feed Efficiency and Rations (Feedlot)
Range & Pasture Improvement (Range &
Pasture)
1 "
2
3
4 .
V 1
2
3
1
5 4
6 "
7
8
9
10
11
121
13 J
14 -
5
—
--
9
7
10
10
5
15
16 8
17
18
19
20
Silviculture Trends
Phase I Rank by _4/
Silviculture Panel
Phase II Trend
Numbers: Silviculture
Access to Timber Resource
Site Preparation
Log Extraction
Utilization; Logs & Residues
Cutting System
1
2
3
4
9
\l In Phase I, agriculture trends represented four subsectors: (1) Irrigated
Crop Production; (2) Nonirrigated Crop Production; (3) Feedlot Production;
and, (4) Range & Pasture Management.
2/
— Brackets indicate combined agriculture trends for Phase II assessment.
— In Feedlot Production, the first two ranked trends were excluded from
Phase II because EPA point source analysis and controls will apply.
— Silviculture trends were ranked separately in Phase I by the Silviculture
panel and were not included in overall workshop rankings.
-------
The environmental and ecological effects assessments for agriculture and
silviculture, which follow, represent both research findings from the
literature and expert judgements. The ecological effects of trends in
agriculture were primarily evaluated in a workshop setting as previously
described. The panel itself placed most credence on the direction of eco-
logical effects as defined below, and tried to reflect differential rela-
tive changes among subtrends via the rating scale adopted. However, it is
impossible to precisely indicate in an index fashion all potential effects
under all possible conditions. Each subtrend itself might present major eco-
logical problems on a local-regional level.
A. Agriculture Sector Trends
The agriculture sector trends are divided into three subsectors in Phase
II: crop production (irrigated and nonirrigated), feedlot production, and,
range and pasture management. (In Phase I, the irrigated and nonirrigated
crop production subsectors were assessed separately.) Ten (10) trends and
41 subtrends from these three subsectors, as shown in Exhibit II-2, are
assessed. In particular, the trends numbered 1 thru 8 are selected trends
from the crop production subsector; trend 9 is from the feedlot production
subsector; trend 10 is from the range and pasture management subsector.
The rationale for the selection of these trends was that basically each
trend was rated as having relatively high environmental implications by
the Phase I evaluation workshop -- either in the aggregate or by the re-
spective subsector panels of experts. At least one trend from each sub-
sector was included; however, for the feedlot production subsector, the two
most highly rated trends were excluded because the Environmental Protection
Agency's point-source control programs do or will cover the environmental
effects of these trends. Hence, the third-ranked feedlot trend, residuals
disposal, was selected for this analysis.
As was shown in Exhibit II-l, above, the crop production subsectors (non-
irrigated and irrigated) generally have the production-related trends with
the greatest environmental implications; consequently, the emphasis of this
assessment is on the crop production subsector environmental and ecological
effects. Obviously, however, further assessments of additional trends from
all subsectors of agriculture are possible and relevant.
1. Runoff and Erosion Control (1)
A total of five subtrends were evaluated as components of the runoff and
erosion control trend. Three of these, contour farming, terraces and grass
waterways, and use of winter cover crops are recognized methods of stabil-
izing soil. Optimizing time of farm operations and the use of narrow rows
are also considered as erosion control practices. The basic principle be-
hind all five of these practices is that they impede runoff and retard sedi-
ment movement. The ecology workshop's ratings for each subtrend are sum-
marized below and are followed by a discussion of each subtrend's exten-
siveness of use, environmental factors, ecological effects and research needs
-------
Exhibit II-2. Summary of selected Phase II trends and
subtrends in agriculture
Trend
Subtrend
Crop Production
LRunoffand Erosion Control
.2. Conservation Tillage
3. Improved Water Application
4. Improvement Seed and Plants
5.
6.
Scouting and Integrated
Controls
Development of New Bio-
logical and Chemical
7. Methods of Nutrient
Application
8. Soil Plant Analysis
Feedlot Production
9. Alternative Residual
Disposal
Range and Pasture Management
10. Grazing Practices and
Stocking Rates
1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping
1.2 Terraces and grass waterways
1.3 Optimizing time of operations
1.4 Narrow rows
1.5 Winter cover crop
2.1 No-tillage
2.2 Reduced tillage
3.1 Furrow basins
3.2 Land grading
3.3 Sprinklers
3.4 Recycling and controlling tailwater
3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency
4.1 Weather resistance
4.2 Salt resistance
4.3 Production efficiency
4.4 Disease and insect resistant
5.1 Surface scouting
5.2 Remote sensing scouting
5.3 Integrated controls
6.1 Micro-encapsulated
6.2 Systemic pesticides
6.3 SuriuCtsnts icr rieruicitjcs
6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides
6.5 Alternative formrlations
6.6 Juvenile hormones
6.7 Pheromones
6.8 Sterile males
6.9 Predators and parasites
7.1 Foliar application
7.2 Multiple application
7.3 Fall application
7.4 Liquid fertilizer
7.5 Aerial and floater application
7.6 Improved nutrient placement
7.7 Irrigation application
8.1 Soil plant analysis
9.1 Off-site disposal- solids and
liquids
10.1 Continuous grazing
10.2 Specialized grazing
10.3 Complementary forage seedings
10.4 Controlled livestock grazing
-------
Subtrend
1.1 Contour farming/contour
strip cropping
1.2 Terraces and grass
waterways
1.3 Optimizing time of
operations
1.4 Narrow rows
1.5 Winter cover crops
Aquatic
1985 2010
+1
+1
+1
0
0
+4
+3
+1
+1
+1
Terrestrial
1985 2010
(Index Rating)*-
+1
+1
+1
0
0
+3
+3
+2
+1
+1
Human Health
1985 2010
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
*/
- Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major
Contour Farming/Contour Strip Cropping (1.1)
With this subtrend, farming operations are performed according to land
elevations. Strip cropping allows strips of grass, close-growing crops,
or fallow to alternate with cultivated crops on the contour.
Extensiveness - In 1964, 20,250,000 acres of grain and row crops were farmed
on the contour. By 1969, extensiveness had dropped to 14,570,000 acres,
a 25 percent decrease. Further decreases in crops farmed on the contour
were estimated for 1976. However, based upon evaluation workshop ratings
(Phase I, Volume 1), contouring was expected to increase in use from moder-
ate levels in 1976 to major levels by 2010. This projected increase results
from anticipated non-point source controls to maintain and/or achieve water
quality standards by the implementation of certain management practices such
as contour farming.
Environmental Factors - Productivity of contoured land will be comparable
to straight row farming. Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use pat-
terns will not change with contour farming.
Soil loss will be reduced an average of 30-50 percent with contouring alone
on moderate slopes. On steeper slopes or on land with topographic limita-
tions, contouring will be much less effective in reducing soil loss. Ni-
trates and phosphorus will also be reduced in surface water, but the re-
ductions may not be proportional to soil loss reductions. Pesticide resi-
dues will be reduced in surface water, but these reductions will, also, be
less than those for soil and perhaps less than those for nutrients.
Losses of nitrates and pesticide residues into ground water are not likely
to be decreased significantly with contouring.
-------
Ecological Effects - Contouring will have beneficial aquatic and terres-
trial effects. These effects will be minor in 1985 because the extensive-
ness of use for contouring (over 1976 use) will not have increased signif-
icantly. The effects will, however, be moderate for aquatic and important
for terrestrial by 2010 as extensiveness does increase. Decreased tur-
bidity in the aquatic environment will lead to greater species diversity.'
A reduction in pesticide residues in surface water will also have a positive
effect on aquatic life. The positive effect will increase with the antici-
pated use of less persistent pesticides in the future. The terrestrial ef-
fects will also be beneficial since topsoil losses are reduced, nutrient
cycles are retained, and soil will be maintained in a better condition.
Based upon present knowledge, pesticide residues at present levels in the
nation's surface water are not known to be hazardous to humans. Thus, re-
ductions in pesticide residues with contouring will have no significant ef-
fect on human health. Should future considerations of pesticide residues
in surface water result in these residues being considered a potential human
health hazard, then the human health effects from contouring would be
beneficial.
Research Needs - Additional research is needed to determine the effective-
on reducing nutrient and pesticide losses. Limited data
specific experiments, but more are needed to determine
nutrient formu-
human health
ness of contouring
are available from
losses from different soil types and different pesticide and
lations. Research on the potential dangers of pesticides to
should be continued.
Terraces and Grass Waterways (1.2)
Terraces are soil embankments constructed across a slope to control erosion
by diverting or storing surface runoff. Natural or constructed grass water-
ways are also used to conduct surface water from cropland.
Extensiveness - In 1969, 16,430,000 acres (approximately 6%) of cropland
had terraces. In 1976, terrace use was estimated to have neither increased
or decreased significantly from 1969 use. While terraces and grass water-
ways were not important in irrigated crop production in 1976, they will in-
crease to minor levels of use by 2010. Use of terraces in nonirrigated crop
production will also increase by 2010, but it is not likely to be as ex-
tensive as contouring.
Environmental Factors - Some terrace and grass waterways land will be taken
out of production, but cropping intensities per cropped acre and on slopes
will increase. Thus, overall productivity will remain unchanged. In gen-
eral, fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use patterns will not change
significantly. Fertilizer use could increase slightly on a per acre basis
if production per cropped acre is expected to increase to compensate for
land taken out of production by terraces. Additionally, the incidence of
predators and pests could increase with terrace or grass waterway cover
area. This would require an increased use of pesticides in some areas.
10
-------
Terraces and grass waterways are more effective than contouring in con-
trolling sediment loss and surface runoff. While contouring reduces soil
loss 30-50 percent, reductions with terraces are usually expected to be
greater. Reductions in nitrate, phosphorus, and pesticide losses will also
tend to be greater for terraces and grass waterways compared to contouring,
since both surface runoff and soil loss are less. Based on limited research,
nitrates in ground water may also be reduced with terrace systems. Pesti-
cide loss in ground water will remain unchanged or decrease slightly (com-
pared to conventional farming techniques).
geological Effects - While terraces and grass waterways are usually more
effective in runoff and erosion control than contouring, extensiveness of
use is lower for terraces. For this reason, the intensity of ecological
effects of terraces is comparable to that for contouring; minor aquatic
and terrestrial effects in 1985, and moderate aquatic and terrestrial ef-
fects in 2010. Beneficial aquatic effects result from decreased turbidity
and pesticide residues and increased species diversity. Water will also be
conserved with terrace systems. Terraces and grass waterways have increased
vegetative cover, creating greater wildlife species diversity, wildlife habi-
tat, and natural pathways for animal populations to travel. These terres-
trial effects will be minimized if terraces and waterways are kept mowed
or are farmed.
Additional terrestrial effects include retention of topsoil and nutrient
cycles and preservation of soil integrity. No significant human health
effects will result from this subtrend, since pesticide residues at present
levels in surface water are not considered a human health danger. Sediment
does contain bound organics. With large reductions in sediment, the in-
creased organics could cause an unpleasant taste or odor in drinking water.
However, this potential problem would be one of economics not human health.
Research Needs - Since large reductions in water sediment could increase
the relative concentration of organics and degrade drinking water quality,
sed-iment standards for drinking water may need to be developed. Research
data are needed to compare the effectiveness of alternative soil erosion
measures in controlling nutrient losses. Research and public education are
needed to determine the best maintenance management of terraces and grass
waterways for wildlife habitat.
Optimizing Time of Operations (1.3)
With this practice, farming operations are performed to minimize the time
that the soil is bare. For most areas, this means a change from fall
plowing to spring plowing.
Extensiveness - The number of cropland acres plowed in the spring in 1976
is not known, but the tendency for farmers to spring plow and plant earlier
was judged to be increasing. Extensiveness was estimated at a moderate
level in 1976 and will increase to an important level by 1985. Use should
remain fairly constant between 1985 and 2010.
11
-------
Environmental Factors - In some areas yields per acre will be increased
with proper timing of operations, but in other areas, a wet spring may
extend tillage-planting operations beyond optimum dates, resulting in
lower yields. Thus, overall productivity is not likely to be signifi-
cantly changed with this subtrend. Fertilizer herbicide and insecticide
use patterns are expected to remain unchanged.
The optimizing of pesticide applications to avoid significant runoff from
excessive rainfall events will be facilitated by more sophisticated weather
forecasting methods. It is anticipated that such eventual sophistication
by 2010 will greatly enhance application timing and significantly reduce
losses and improve pesticide effectiveness.
Spring plowing will reduce soil loss in most areas, but reductions will be
very dependent upon previous crop, soil type, climate, and topographical
limitations. Average reductions for soil loss based on limited research
findings are estimated at 10-20 percent. Crop residues remaining through
the winter can further reduce soil losses. Nutrients and pesticide resi-
dues in surface water are expected to remain constant or decrease slightly.
This subtrend will have no significant effect on nitrates and pesticides
entering ground water, although spring plowing compared to fall plowing may
increase vertical nutrient movement.
Ecological Effects - Small decreases in sediment and turbidity will have
minor beneficial aquatic effects in 1985 and 2010. Terrestrial effects
tend to be two-fold with this subtrend. The land will benefit from reten-
tion of topsoil and nutrient cycles. Wildlife will have increased winter
food supply and a more structured winter environment when plowing is done
in the spring and not the fall. Terrestrial effects will be minor in 1985,
with limited effects in 2010. Since nutrients and pesticides in surface
and ground water will not be significantly reduced with optimum timing of
operations, human health effects will not change significantly.
Research Needs - Continued research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness
of management practices as optimizing time of operations, in controlling
soil loss and reducing nutrients and pesticides in the nation's waters.
The development of more efficient farm implements would allow for speedier
spring tillage - planting operations and reduce the necessity of fall plowing
for spring plants.
Narrow Rows (1.4)
With narrow rows, the distance between adjoining rows of seeded crops is
reduced and the number of plants per acre is increased. Corn and soybeans
are especially adaptable to this practice.
Extensiveness - Since 1973, 25 percent of the farm operators in certain
corn producing areas have switched to narrow row corn. Narrow row crop
production was estimated at moderate levels for 1976 and expected to in-
crease to major levels by 2010. Currently this practice is applicable
to corn and soybeans.
12
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Environmental Factors - Overall productivity on a per acre basis will in-
crease with narrow rows. These increases could average 10-20 percent
depending upon type of crop, soil conditions, climate, and other crop
management practices. Fertilizer and herbicide use will increase with
the use of narrower rows. More plants per acre will increase the total
fertilizer requirement as much as 30-40 percent to meet the needs of the
crop. However, only slight increases in herbicide use are anticipated;
and insecticide use will not change with this practice.
Narrow rows will not only provide more cover for the land, but will provide
the cover more quickly. This will reduce the amount of soil loss, especially
during the first two months of a crop year, but average reductions that can
be expected are not documented. Although fertilizer use increases, the
number of plants utilizing the nutrients also increases, so total nutrients
in surface water will probably not increase and could decrease slightly.
There will be little effect on concentrations of pesticides in surface water
or on nitrates or pesticides concentrations in the ground water.
Ecological Effects - Narrow row practices will have no significant ecolog-
ical effects in 1985, and only minor beneficial aquatic and terrestrial
effects in 2010. The beneficial effects result from decreased sediment
in surface water and retention of topsoil and nutrient cycles on the land.
Since nutrient and pesticide concentrations in the environment are not ex-
pected to change with narrow row practices, there will be no significant
human health effects.
Research Needs - Use of narrow rows is an economical way to increase crop
production without increasing environmental effects. Therefore the use
and development of other row crops, such as cotton, suitable for narrow
rows should be investigated. Optimal use of fertilizers and herbicides
with narrow row practices needs to be more fully defined.
Winter Cover Crops (1.5)
Close grown winter cover crops are used to protect and improve the soil
between periods of regular crop production. These are grown when there
would otherwise be no growing plants or crop residues to protect the soil
from erosion and runoff. Cover crops can serve as a second crop in some
regions, especially further south, or may be plowed under in the spring
for soil improvement.
Extensiveness - Actual acreages of cropland planted with winter cover
crops in 1976 are not known but estimated to be minor by the Phase I
evaluation workshop (Volume I). By 1985 and 2010, use of winter cover
crops will increase to limited levels. In the South, 80-90 percent of
the cropland may be planted with winter crops. However, some of this crop-
land should undoubtedly be classified under double-cropping rather than
winter crops grown for cover. In other areas, the agronomic potential for
winter cover crops for a second income crop or for soil improvement is
substantial, although economic factors are currently marginal.
13
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Environmental Factors - Productivity will vary from region to region de-
pending upon climatic limitations. In the areas where winter cover crops
(excluding certain winter row crops grown further south on a double-
cropping system) can be used as a second income crop, total yearly pro-
duction per acre would normally increase. Additionally, winter cover crops
can be used for winter grazing of livestock, an economic benefit to the '
farm operator. However, winter cover crops in some areas with a dry cli-
mate or with an unseasonly dry winter and spring will reduce the soil
moisture content and cause water stress on the following spring crop.
This could result in significantly lower yearly production per acre es-
pecially if the winter cover crop is used for soil improvement and not as
a second income crop.
Insecticide use patterns will not change significantly with winter cover
crops. Herbicide use per acre may increase slightly, especially if a no-
till crop will follow in the spring. Fertilizer use will vary with the
use of the winter cover crop. If the cover crop is plowed under in the
spring, then the nutrients are simply recycled and fertilizer use will in-
crease little or not at all. Significantly increased fertilizer use, up to
100 percent increase, would be required for some winter cover crops grown
as a second income crop.
Winter cover crops will tend to give slight to moderate reductions in soil
loss and are comparable to leaving stalkly crop residues through the winter.
Nutrient loss to surface water will depend upon the additional use of fer-
tilizer. Nutrient levels will be decreased slightly if commercial fertilizer
use is not increased, but total yearly nutrient loss may increase if ferti-
lizer use is greatly increased. Nitrate leaching into ground water will be
reduced without increased fertilizer use but won't be significantly changed
with increased fertilizer use. Pesticide losses to surface and ground water
should not change.
Ecological Effects - There will be no significant ecological effects from
winter cover crops in 1985. In 2010, minor beneficial aquatic and ter-
restrial effects will result from reductions in soil loss. Increased use
of paraquat or similar chemicals could potentially have a minor adverse
human health effect in 2010. Direct contact with this herbicide during
application is particularly hazardous to humans.
Research Needs - Continued pesticide research is needed to develop effec-
tive alternatives to the use of paraquat and other toxic pesticides. Addi-
tional research is needed to determine the extensiveness of winter cover
crops, associated fertilizer use, and the effectiveness of this practice
in reducing soil and nutrient losses.
2. Conservation Tillage (2)
Conservation tillage covers a broad category of tillage methods that re-
quire less soil disturbance during seed planting and crop growth than the
conventional soil inversions with moldboard plowing. Within conservation
14
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tillage, two subtrends, no-tillage and reduced tillage, are included for
detailed evaluation. This evaluation includes extensiveness of use, en-
vironmental factors, ecological effects and research needs. The ecology
workshop rated both conservation tillage practices for possible ecological
effects in three areas: aquatic life, terrestrial life, and human health.
The workshop ratings are given below:
Aquatic (from Aquatic (from
decreased increased
sediment) pesticide use) Terrestrial Human Health
Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010
No-tillage
Reduced
tillage
+2
+2
+3
+3
-1
-1
(Index Ratincf]
-10000
-10000
*/
- Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major.
No-till (2.1)
th no-till farming, seeding is performed without tillage preparation and
ie crop is not cultivated during the production period.
Extensiveness - In 1976, 7.5 million acres were under no-till farming
compared to 3.3 million acres in 1972. In 1977, nearly 8 million acres
(2.6 percent of cropland total) will be no-till farmed. Although this
practice is expected to increase to 2010, current projected estimates
(55 percent no-till in 2010) seem high. It seems likely that extensive-
ness may be only 10-20 percent by 2010.
Environmental Factors - Productivity values are variable, with both in-
creases and decreases found with no-till practices. The type of crop cli-
mate, and soil type and condition will determine yields. Not all crops
or soils are recommended for no-till farming. Multicropping practices
will increase with no-till and increase production on a yearly per-acre
basis.
Fertilizer and herbicide use is expected to increase by 15 percent with no-
till farming and insecticide use will increase by about 11 percent. Since
the fertilizer is not incorporated into the soil, more fertilizer will be
required to penetrate the soil and enter the root zone area. Both weeds
and pests are increased with no-till.
With conservation tillage methods (no-till and reduced till) an estimated
five million acres of fallow land or land with topographic limitations can
be brought into crop production. Labor costs to the farm operator are re-
duced with no-till farming. No-till will also increase the soil moisture
content as much as 2 inches per year in some areas.
15
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Substantial soil loss reductions can be expected with no-till. Reductions
of 50-95 percent are common. While these large soil loss reductions will
tend to reduce nutrient loss to. surface water, total available nutrients
have increased greatly with this practice. Fertilizer use has increased
15 percent and the fertilizer is surface applied. Crop residues left on
soil will also increase the nitrogen content of soil as they weather. It
seems likely that nutrients in the surface water will be reduced, but the
reductions will be of considerable less magnitude than soil loss reductions.
The effects of no-till farming on pesticide runoff are not well documented.
Insecticide use and herbicide use have increased 11 and 15 percent, respect-
ively. Pesticide loss to surface water will be greater for surface-applied
compounds that are not incorporated into the soil. The greatest amount of
pesticide loss is usually associated with surface runoff, not sediment.
Finally, one research experiment found increased herbicide loss with a no-
till plot compared to a conventional tilled plot after the first rain ef-
fect. Even so, not enough research data exists to predict the effects of
no-till farming on pesticide loss. However, it seems that the potential
does exist for increased pesticide loss into surface water with no-till.
Nitrates in ground water will show no significant change to small increases.
Weathering of crop residues and increased fertilizer use make more nitrate
available for leaching. Increased soil moisture content will allow nitrate
to percolate through the soil easier and, thus, ground water nitrate concen-
tration could potentially increase. Pesticide loss to ground water will not
be significantly changed with no-till practices.
Surface application of some pesticides will result in increased volatiliza-
tion of those pesticides. The extent of volatilization will be determined
by vapor pressure, molecular weight, and other chemical properties of the
pesticide.
Ecological Effects - No-till practices will have both beneficial and adverse
ecological effects. The large soil loss reductions will decrease turbidity
and increase species diversity in the aquatic environment. However, the
potential of increased pesticide residues in U.S. waters will have an adverse
aquatic effect. By 1985, sediment reductions as a result of no-till prac-
tices will have a limited beneficial aquatic effect and a moderate bene-
ficial effect by 2010. Aquatic effects from potentially increased pesti-
cide residues associated with no-till will have a minor adverse effect in
1985 and in 2010.
Terrestrial effects with no-till farming were also beneficial and adverse.
Retention of top soil, continued nutrient cycles, and enhanced soil condi-
tion and structure will benefit the land. Crop residues left through the
winter provide winter food and habitat for wildlife. However, increased
pesticide use needed with no-till will have direct and indirect adverse
effects on non-target organisms. Terrestrial effects were given a zero
rating in 1985 and 2010, not because important ecological effects will not
be present with no-till, but because the beneficial and adverse effects
will tend to cancel each other.
16
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Although no-till could increase pesticide levels in surface water, the
ecology panel felt the levels would still be within the established human
safety limits. Since ingestion of pesticide concentrations within these
limits by humans is believed to have no harmful effects, there are ex-
pected to be no known significant human health effects in 1985 or 2010.
Research Needs - With no-till practices, optimum fertilizer and pesticide
use practices should be established. The relationship of no-till, in-
creased pesticide use, and concentration of pesticide residues in surface
water run-off needs to be fully researched to help identify potential eco-
logical effects. Continued research is needed for the development of ef-
ficient, less-persistent pesticides and effective pesticide alternatives.
Support and public education will be needed for the implementation of these
newer pesticides and pesticide alternatives.
Reduced Tillage (2.2)
A number of tillage methods are classified as reduced tillage. These in-
volve limited preparation of soil for planting and use of chemical com-
pounds for weed control. The total field surface is still worked but with
tillage methods other than moldboard plowing. Crop residues are usually
retained on the surface and/or mixed into the top soil.
Extensiveness - In 1972, 26.3 million acres were reduced-tilled compared
to an estimated 58.8 million acres in 1977. An additional 40 million acres
could be classified as less-tilled by 1977. This would include cropland
which is chisel plowed, disced once instead of twice, and planted in rough,
trashy ground. By 2010, a significantly large increase is expected for
reduced tillage practices. The practice will be major in extensiveness and
could include up to 50 percent of all cropland.
Environmental Factors - With reduced tillage, crop yields are comparable and
often slightly higher than yields from conventional tillage. Multicropping
practices increase with reduced tillage and would increase yields on a
yearly per acre basis.
Since fertilizer nutrients must penetrate the soil and travel down to the
crop root zone, fertilizer use will increase with this practice. However,
reduced tillage involves more soil preparations and the fertilizer increase
should not be as great for this practice as for no-till (15% increase in
fertilizer use). Herbicide use will also increase for weed problems are
more serious with reduced tillage compared to conventional tillage (how-
ever weed problems are less with reduced tillage than for no-tillage). In-
secticide use could increase as much as 8-9% for this practice. Crop
residues left on the soil will increase the incidence of pests.
An additional 5 million acres of fallow land or land with topographical
limitations could be shifted to agriculture production with conservation
tillage methods (no-tillage and reduced tillage). Reduced tillage will
lead to increased soil moisture content in some areas. Farm operators
will have reduced energy and labor needs with this practice.
17
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Soil loss will decrease with reduced tillage farming, but the effectiveness
will depend upon the amount of residues left on the surface, surface rough-
ness, and the amount and type of reduced tillage used. Reduced tillage is
less effective than no-tillage in the control of soil loss. (Note: one
research experiment indicates that average soil loss reductions may only
be 14 percent when including all reduced tillage methods.) Total nutrients
in surface water will probably be reduced, but reductions will not be pro-
portional to the reductions in soil loss.
As with no tillage, the effect of reduced tillage on pesticide loss to sur-
face water is not well documented. Pesticide usage increases, loss to sur-
face water is greater for surface-applied pesticides, and greater amounts
of pesticide residues are lost in runoff water than with sediment. Poten-
tially the amount of pesticide entering surface water could increase with
reduced tillage. However, this is not proven, and reduced tillage may, in
fact, little affect either the increasing or decreasing of pesticide losses
into surface water.
Pesticide levels in ground water will not be significantly changed with
reduced tillage. No change to slight increases could occur in nitrate
leaching since more fertilizer will be applied, crop residues will add to
soil nitrate content, and increased soil moisture will facilitate nitrate
movement through the soil.
Some pesticides will have increased volatilization losses when surface
applied. The amount of volatilization will depend upon vapor pressure,
molecular weight, and other chemical properties of the pesticides. The
increased loss of pesticides to the air with reduced tillage would prob-
ably be small, since other tillage methods may also use surface applica-
tion of pesticides.
Ecological Effects - The ecological effects of reduced tillage are the
same as those for no-tillage, both beneficial and adverse. Reduced tillage
is less effective than no-till in controlling soil loss, but will be used
more extensively in 1985 and 2010. Aquatic effects are divided into two
categories--those from reduced sediment and those from pesticide residues
in water. Limited beneficial aquatic effects result from decreased sedi-
ment, decreased turbidity, and increased species diversity in 1985. In
2010, these effects will be moderate. The possibility of increased pesti-
cide residues in surface water will cause minor adverse aquatic effects in
1985 and 2010. Terrestrial effects are also beneficial and adverse. Land
will profit from the retention of top soil and nutrient cycles. Crop resi-
dues through the winter will provide winter food supplies and habitat for
the wildlife. But increased pesticide usage will have direct and indirect
adverse effects on non-target organisms. Overall terrestrial ratings are
zero for 1985 and 2010, because the beneficial and adverse effects tend to
balance each other out.
The ecology panel felt that if pesticide residues in surface water remained
the same or increased slightly with reduced tillage, the levels would still
18
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be within the established human safety limits, and that human health ef-
rects would not be significant in 1985 and 2010. If pesticide residues
are round to increase more than indicated, then adverse human health ef-
tects could result.
ResearchNeeds_ - Optimum fertilizer and pesticide use with different re-
aucea tillage systems needs to be determined. Further investigation is
needed to determine the effect of reduced tillage and increased pesticide
use on pesticide losses to surface water. Additionally, research should
continue on the development of efficient, less-persistent pesticide and
effective pesticide alternatives.
3. Improved Hater Application (3)
The improved water application trend reflects a movement in irrigated crop
production toward the conservation of water resources and the improvement
of irrigation efficiency with the use of existing irrigation systems, better
management practices, and professional irrigation scheduling. Of primary
concern, is the effect of improved water application methods on the quality
of return flows and on soil salinity. Five subtrends were evaluated as im-
proved water application practices. Ecological ratings for each sub-
trend's impact on aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health are shown
below.
Subtrend
3.1 Furrow basins
3.2 Land grading
3.3 Sprinklers
3.4 Recycling and controlling
tail water
3.5 Irrigation scheduling and
efficiency
Aquatic
1985 2010
Terrestrial
1985 2010
•(Index Ratings)'
Human Health
1985
2010
-2
-1
-1
+2
+1
-3
-1
-2
+3
+1
-2
-1
-1
-1
0
-3
-1
-1
-1
+1
-1
0
0
+1
0
-1
-1
0
+1
0
-/ Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major
A complete discussion of each subtrend follows.
Furrow Basins (3.1)
Small channels or furrows are constructed to carry irrigation waters down
or across the slope of fields with this practice. Furrow irrigation does
not wet the entire surface but allows the water to seep through the sides
and bottom of the channel to provide the necessary moisture to the crop.
19
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Extensiveness - In 1969, 50 percent (19.2 million acres) of irrigated crop-
land used furrow type irrigation, but the extent of use in 1976 is not known,
The flat regions of the West use furrow irrigation more than other areas.
Environmental Factors - Yields from irrigated croplands were 11 percent
higher in the East and 38 percent higher in the West than U.S. average
yields in 1969. However, it is estimated that salinity reduces crop pro-
duction on a fourth of all irrigated land in the Western United States and
that it presents a potential hazard to one-half of the irrigated acres in
the West. Productivity from irrigated cropland may decrease if salinity
continues to build in these areas.
Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use with furrow basins are comparable
to other irrigation methods. Furrow irrigation uses an average of 2.06
acre feet of water per acre compared to an average of 1.39 acre feet of
water per acre for sprinkler irrigation. Efficiency of furrow irrigation
is lower than that of sprinkler or subsurface irrigation methods. The
average efficiency for furrows is only about 35 percent.
With furrow basins, certain management practices must be followed to
reduce sediment and associated pollutants (nutrients, pesticides, and
salts). These practices are listed below.
1. The slope of the furrow in the direction of water movement
should not exceed 2 percent. With some soil types and in
climates with intense rainfall, the slope should even be less
than 2 percent.
2. Land grading is essential with furrow basins.
3. Furrow basins should be used on soils with low infiltration rates.
4. Furrows should not be used on steep or rough terrain. (See #7)
5. Water should be applied at a slow rate.
6. Ideally, the amount of irrigation water applied should be
measured.
7. Benched, contoured, or diagonal furrows can be used on uneven
terrain or with land that may be too steep for straight furrows.
These management practices will tend to reduce pollutant losses with furrow
irrigation in many areas. However, with some lands, it is nearly impossible
to reduce sediment in furrow irrigation to the extent sediment and associ-
ated suspended solids in return flow will meet water quality standards. In
general, sediment and other pollutant losses are greater for furrow irriga-
tion than for sprinkler or subsurface methods. Scheduling irrigations,
lining of conveyance ditches and furrow drops, and improved drainage facil-
ities could be used with furrow basins to increase efficiency and further
reduce pollutant losses.
Significant ground water pollution occurs with furrow irrigation use. Ni-
trates and other salts become concentrated in ground water entering rivers.
It is doubtful if improved furrow irrigation management will significantly
reduce ground water pollutants without irrigation scheduling and improved
irrigation facilities (lining of conveyance ditches and furrow drops, im-
proved drainage and catch facilities, etc.)
20
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Salinity buildup tends to be greater for furrow irrigation. Not only is
the water less efficiently used, but also, salts tend to concentrate in
the surface, in the center of beds, and at the highest points in the fields
with furrows.
Ecological Effects Furrow irrigation will have limited adverse aquatic
effects in 1985 and moderate adverse aquatic effects in 2010. These ef-
fects are the result of sediment, nutrients, pesticide residues, and salts
which will enter U.S. waters through surface and ground water from furrow-
irrigated land. In evaluating the aquatic effects of furrow basins, it
was assumed that return flows would not be adequately controlled and that
surface and ground water from irrigated land will enter U.S. rivers. With
adequate control of return flow, these adverse effects could be signifi-
cantly reduced.
The land will suffer with furrow irrigation use if soil salinity continues
to be a problem. In 1985, furrow irrigation will have limited adverse
terrestrial effects and in 2010, moderate adverse effects.
Concentrations of salts in U.S. rivers where irrigation is practiced have
increased over the past two decades and will continue to increase in the
future. Drinking water quality has been and will be further degraded.
Nitrate concentrations in water will continue to increase and could present
potential future human health dangers. For these reasons, furrow irrigation
will have minor adverse human health effects in 1985 and 2010.
Research Needs - Continued research is needed in irrigation methods, irri-
gation facilities, and control of return flows to determine how these can
be used to help achieve water quality standards and reduce soil salinity.
The feasibility of water renovation programs and cost incentives needs to
be more fully investigated if water quality standards cannot be met by
irrigation best management practices. With the increase of saline waters
in the West, the effects of salinity on human and animal health should be
fully researched. A productive and economic use for return flows is needed.
Land Grading (3.2) I/
Land grading is the leveling of the land's surface for better movement of
water over the land or for soil erosion control. In this discussion, land
grading will be evaluated only as an irrigation practice for improved water
application.
Extensiveness Land grading is used most often in irrigated crop production
in conjunction with basin, border, or furrow irrigation methods. Actual
extensiveness of use in 1976 is not known, but land grading was assessed
by the irrigated crop production panel (Evaluation Workshop, Volume I), as
having important use in 1976 and increasing to major use by 1985 and 2010.
—• Land grading was not originally defined by the Contractor and was added
to runoff and erosion control subtrends by the irrigated crop production
subsector. However, a more appropriate place for analysis seemed to be
with other subtrends specifically designated as important to irrigated
crop production, i.e., within the improved water application trend.
21
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Environmental Factors - Productivity can increase with land grading in
irrigated crop production as water will flow through the irrigation chan-
nels more uniformly. Land grading will help prevent water logging and high
spot salinity areas in a field. Increased yields can be signifcant if the
irrigated terrain was previously very rough and uneven.
Irrigation water needs can be reduced up to 40 percent on some rough ter-
rain. With terrain that is already flat, water needs may not be signifi-
cantly reduced. Decreased water use will also slightly reduce soluble
fertilizer requirements. Herbicide and insecticide use patterns will not
change with land grading.
Elimination of excessive water applications through the use of land grading
will reduce soil, pesticide, and nutrient losses to surface water. However,
these reductions will not reduce these pollutants to a level that return
flows will meet water quality standards.
Slight reductions are expected for nitrates,
ground water with the use of land grading to
cation. With terrain that is already nearly
water will not be significantly reduced.
salts and pesticide levels in
reduce excessive water appli-
flat, pollutants in ground
Land grading will reduce high spot soil salinity areas in irrigated cropland.
Overall soil salinity will decrease very little unless water requirements
are significantly reduced.
Ecological Effects - Land grading was evaluated by the ecology workshop as
a practice that would be used with furrow irrigation. The practice will be
beneficial to irrigated agriculture by reducing the adverse effects of fur-
row irrigation. Salt will still enter the river systems and salt concentra-
tions in these rivers will increase with time. For this reason, land grading
will have a minor adverse aquatic effect in 1985 and 2010. Salinity in soil
will still occur with land grading, but won't be as great for this practice
as with furrow irrigation alone. Thus, minor adverse terrestrial effects
will result in 1985 and 2010. Potential nitrate levels will also increase
in rivers receiving irrigation return flows via surface and ground water.
This potential for increasing nitrate levels will have a minor adverse
human health effect in 2010.
Research Needs - Research needs for land grading are the same as those for
furrow irrigation -- continued research on efficiency, management, and for
alternative irrigation methods to meet water quality standards and to con-
trol soil salinity.
Sprinklers (3.3)
With sprinkler systems, irrigation water is uniformily distributed to the
crop as spray.
Extensiveness - In 1969, 7.2 million acres (18.8 percent of all irrigated
cropland) used sprinkler irrigation. Extensiveness of use of sprinkler
irrigation in 1976 is not known, but it is expected to have increased
22
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since 1969. Although further increases in use are expected for sprinkler
systems in the future, depletion of ground water supplies will tend to
limit their use in some areas, especially in semi-arid regions of the West.
Increased use for optimizing crop quality, as well as quantity, can be ex-
pected in the East and upper Mid-West.
Environmental Factors - In 1969, yields from irrigated cropland in the West
were 32 percent greater than the U.S. average. In the East, yields were 11
percent higher than U.S. averages for irrigated cropland. While these fig-
ures include irrigated crop yields from all methods of irrigation, produc-
tivity from a single method, such as sprinkler, will show comparable results.
Currently crop production is reduced on one-fourth of the irrigated acres
in the Western U.S. due to soil salinity. Overall productivity from land
that is kept as irrigated cropland will continue to be high, but some land
will be taken out of production as salinity increases above the crops tol-
erance.
Additionally, sprinkler irrigation in some Western areas may have only
highly saline waters available for irrigation use. This can leave toxic,
often lethal deposits on crop foliage. Nor are all crops suitable to
sprinkler irrigation methods. Certain crops are very susceptible to fungi
and have increased incidence of fungi infections from the high moisture
conditions of sprinkler irrigation.
Fertilizer, pesticide, and insecticide use with sprinkler irrigations are
comparable to their use in other irrigation methods. Sprinkler irrigation
requires an average of 1.39 acre feet of water per acre, considerably less
than furrow irrigation water requirements (an average of 2.06 acre feet of
water per acre). Efficiency of sprinkler irrigation averages 50-60 percent.
Soil, nutrients, and pesticide losses to surface water are, generally,
less with sprinkler irrigation methods than with furrow methods. Applica-
tion rates and the amount of water applied can be more closely monitored
with sprinkler systems. These will tend to reduce excessive water applica-
tions, and, thus, reduce runoff and erosion. Little data is available on
the quantification of pollutants entering surface water from sprinkler
irrigated land. With some management practices and soil types, pollutants
could probably be significant.
Ground water pollution also tends to be less for sprinkler irrigation than
for furrow irrigation. However, use of sprinkler irrigation cannot be relied
upon to significantly reduce nitrates, pesticides and salt levels in ground
water. Improvement of pollutant levels in ground water with sprinkler irri-
gation can result with irrigation scheduling and improve irrigation facili-
ties.
Soil salinity is less for sprinkler irrigation than with other surface irri-
gation methods; however, salinity continues to be a problem in many areas,
regardless of the type of irrigation method used.
23
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Ecological Effects - Sediment, nutrient, and pesticide losses to surface
water will be less with sprinkler irrigation compared to other surface irri-
gation methods. This will have a beneficial effect on aquatic life. How-
ever, sprinkler irrigation use has seriously depleted ground water supplies
in some areas and will continue to reduce these supplies in 1985 and 2010.
For this reason, sprinkler irrigation was evaluated as having minor adverse
effects in 1985 and limited adverse aquatic effects in 2010.
Minor adverse terrestrial effects in 1985 and 2010 will be found with
sprinkler use. Soil salinity will continue to be a problem and wildlife
habitat will be destroyed as fence rows are removed to facilitate sprinkler
irrigation.
The potential for increased nitrates in surface water is reduced with
sprinkler irrigation; thus human health impacts in 1985 and 2010 will
not be significant with this practice.
Research Needs - The depletion of ground water supplies should be carefully
monitored to determine the seriousness of the problem and to evaluate irri-
gated agriculture's role in preventing further depletions. The feasibility
of using municipal waste effluents in sprinkler systems for agriculture
irrigation should be thoroughly investigated. Additionally, continued re-
search is needed to evaluate irrigation methods and the management of and/or
the adding of the irrigation facilities necessary to reduce soil salinity
and for return flows to meet water quality standards.
Recycling and Controlling Tailwater (3.4)
Only part of the total return flow, tailwater is the excess surface water
remaining after irrigation (the rest of the return flow is sub-surface
drainage water). Under this practice, tailwater is not allowed to run
into rivers and streams but is either diverted to an off-site or is collected
in a reservoir or tail ditch for irrigation reuse. Although control of sub-
surface drainage waters is not actually included in the practice of re-
cycling and controlling tailwater, it is included in parts of this dis-
cussion to show how these waters can also affect environmental quality.
Extensiveness - The extensiveness of recycling and controlling tailwater in
1976 is not known. However, as stricter controls are imposed on agriculture
point and nonpoint sources of pollution, this practice is expected to in-
crease to help meet water quality standards. Use was estimated to be
limited in 1976, moderate in 1985, and important in 2010 (the evaluation
workshop, Volume I).
Environmental Factors - Productivity will not increase or decrease signifi-
cantly with proper management of recycled tailwater. Application of tail-
water back on irrigated crops without proper dilution or settling could re-
sult in slight decreases in crop yields. With proper management, yields
with recycled tailwater will be comparable to yields with water from other
irrigation sources. While water that is collected from subsurface drain-
age systems will require more treatment than tailwater before reuse due to
24
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nigh salt concentrations, limited research data suggests that subsurface
return flows are not being recycled for irrigation use, but are diverted
to other areas for disposal. Application of such water, however, without
treatment could cause significantly large reductions in crop yields in
some areas.
Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use will not significantly change
with the recycling and control of tailwater. Water use will be reduced
with this practice, as much as 30 percent with some methods of surface
irrigation. If water use has already been reduced through monitoring
the amount of water applied and/or through irrigation scheduling, then
water use may be reduced very little with this practice. While installa-
tion of tailwater reuse systems will present an initial cost to the farm
operator, reuse of runoff water can reduce the ultimate cost of water.
Installation of tile drains and collection systems for control of sub-
surface water will be a more costly operation and will probably not be
widely used.
Control of tailwater can significantly reduce the amount of sediment, pesti-
cides, and nutrients entering surface water. The pollutants will be con-
fined to the field where they originated. Control of tailwater will have
little or no effect on salt concentrations in surface water. However,
control of subsurface drainage waters would reduce the amount of salt that
would enter rivers and streams from groundwater. Soil salinity will not be
significantly affected with the control and reuse of tailwater. Subsurface
drainage systems can be used to control salinity buildup at or near the
ground surface.
Ecological Effects - Recycling and controlling tailwater will be beneficial
to aquatic life. Reduced sediment, nutrients, and pesticides in water cur-
rently receiving surface drainage from irrigated cropland will decrease tur-
bidity and increase species diversity in these waters. Less water will be
required for irrigations when tailwater is recycled. In 1985, this practice
will have limited beneficial effects on aquatic life and by 2010, with more
extensive use of this practice, effects will be moderately beneficial. Con-
trol of all return flow, surface and subsurface, would further benefit
aquatic life with reduction of salt concentrations entering U.S. waters.
However only control of tailwater is included in this assessment, and, addi-
tionally, control of all return flow does not currently seem to be a likely
development.
Soil salinity will not be controlled with recycling of tailwater. If tail-
water is not reused, but diverted to some other receiving area, the poten-
tial exists for increased environmental impacts in that area. For these
reasons, control of tailwater will have minor adverse terrestrial effects
in 1985 and 2010.
Nitrate levels will be significantly reduced in water supplies with the
control of tailwater resulting in minor beneficial human health effects in
1985 and 2010.
25
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Research Needs - Continued research is needed on the quality of return
flows, their effects on water quality and on economically feasible ways
to control return flows. Disposal of tailwater and subsurface drainage
waters that are not recycled for irrigation use should be investigated.
More public education is needed to inform farm operators that control of
tailwater would be beneficial to them as well as to the environment.
Irrigation Scheduling and Efficiency (3.5)
Irrigation scheduling is used to improve efficiency by applying optimum
amounts of irrigation water to a particular crop at times when that crop
can use the water most effectively. Generally, less water will be applied
and less water will end up as return flow with scheduling.
Extensiveness - In 1974, professional irrigation scheduling was used on
382,000 acres of irrigated cropland (approximately 1 percent). Addi-
tionally, some farm operators probably used non-professional methods to
provide some type of scheduling to their crops. However, these methods
are often not as scientific or accurate as professional scheduling. Ex-
tensiveness of use was estimated at moderate levels in 1976 by the first
evaluation workshop and was expected to increase to major levels by 2010.
Environmental Factors - Increased crop yields and improved crop quality
can be expected with irrigation scheduling.
Fertilizer use could be reduced slightly with irrigation scheduling and
other irrigation efficiency practices. Herbicide and insecticide use
patterns would not be changed with improved water efficiency. Water use
will decrease an average of 10 percent with scheduling. Lining of irri-
gation conveyance ditches can further increase efficiency and reduce water
requirements by 20 percent in many areas.
Sediment, nutrient, and pesticide losses to surface water will be reduced
with irrigation scheduling. Salt concentrations in surface runoff are
comparable to those of the original irrigation water and will not be signi-
ficantly affected with scheduling.
Salt concentrations in ground water can be significantly reduced with the
elimination of irrigation conveyance losses. With irrigation systems that
allow uniform, monitored water applications, scheduling can reduce salt
loads in return flows, but this reduction is not expected to significantly
influence salinity in return flows except where salt buildup is a major
factor. Other irrigation systems may not show a decrease in salinity in
the return flow with scheduling.
Soil salinity decreases with scheduling, particularly since water use for
salt leaching is usually included as part of the practice. Also, with more
frequent monitored water application, salt concentrations are not as likely
to build up to dangerous levels in the soil.
26
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Ecological Effects - In 1985 and in 2010, irrigation scheduling and ef-
ficiency practices will result in minor beneficial aquatic effects from
decreased water use. Small decreases in water salinity will also occur
in some areas. Terrestrial and human health effects will not be signifi-
cant in 1985. However, in 2010, terrestrial effects will be of minor
benefit since soil salinity will show small reductions.
Research Needs - Continued research is needed on irrigation scheduling
and other efficiency practices to help control quality of return flows
and soil salinity. Additionally, more public education is needed for the
farm operator to recognize the economic and environmental benefits of im-
proving irrigation efficiency through professional scheduling, improved
irrigation facilities, and improved irrigation management.
4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants (4)
Improvement of seeds and plants covers a broad area of genetic research in
plants. Improved weather resistance, salt resistance, improved production
efficiency, and disease, insect, and nematode resistance are four important
areas which are analyzed as subtrends within this trend. While research on
these subtrends has been continuing for several years, commercial applica-
tions are still in their infancy and are classified here as developments
rather than current practices. Their assessment is based on the assumption
that gradual genetic improvements in resistance and production efficiency
will occur by 1985 with further improvements by 2010.
Ecological ratings used in indicating the intensity of ecological effects
in three areas, aquatic, terrestrial, and human health are shown below.
Subtrend
4.1 "Weather resistance
4.2 Salt resistance
4.3 Production efficiency
4.4 Disease, insect, and
nematode resistance
Aquatic
1985 2010
Terrestrial
1985 2010
•(Index Rating)*
Human Health
1985
2010
0
0
0
+2
0
-1
-1
+4
0
0
0
+1
0
-1
0
+3
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0
+2
—/ Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects ratings
on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major
Weather Resistance (4.1)
Weather resistance is genetically bred into crop varieties so they will
have higher tolerance to heat, cold, drought, and wind. With such de-
velopments, agriculture can be expanded in areas that have less favorable
growing seasons.
27
-------
Extensiveness - Improvements in weather resistance have occurred in some
field crops. Soybeans with a shorter growing season are being grown in
some northern areas of the U.S. Drought tolerant strains of corn and
wheat have shown sustained yields in dry years. Gradual improvements will
continue to be made with weather resistance in crop varieties, but no
major developments are expected in this area in the near future, i.e.,
weather resistant crop strains that will allow significant year-round
cropping.
Environmental Factors - Productivity will increase with weather resistant
crops. In years of drought or prolonged cold springs, yields may be main-
tained with these crops. Crop production could be expanded into areas with
more stressful climates, too. Multicropping practices will increase in
some areas; however, it is doubtful if year-round cropping will occur
throughout most of the U.S. Rather, crops will be developed for normal
growing seasons that will be more tolerant of weather stress.
Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use will not change with weather re-
sistant crops in the near future. If major developments in weather re-
sistance made year-round cropping feasible, significantly large increases
in fertilizer use and smaller increases in pesticide use would be expected.
Weather resistance crops will not result in any significant pollutant changes
in the media, unless multicropping practices and year-round cropping prac-
tices increase. Pollutants in the media would also increase with these
practices, but extensiveness of these practices (from weather resistant
crops) is expected to be very minor in 2010.
Ecological Effects - There will be no significant ecological effects with
weather resistant crop varieties in 1985 or 2010. Multicropping practices
and crop production on marginal land is not expected to significantly in-
crease with this subtrend; thus, media pollutants will not change signi-
ficantly either.
Research Needs - Continued research is needed for the improvement of
weather resistant crop varieties. The environmental implications of in-
creased multicropping practices with this subtrend should be included in
the research.
Salt Resistance (4.2)
With advances in plant genetics, certain crops are being bred to withstand
high salt concentrations. These crops could be grown in areas of the U.S.
where soil and available irrigation water have become so saline that crop
production is impaired or is no longer economically feasible with existing
varieties.
Extensiveness - Limited field trials with salt resistant crop strains are
encouraging, but commercial use of these crops is several years away. Re-
search with salt resistance continues, with expected use in irrigated crop
production before 2010.
28
-------
Environmental Factors - Productivity in irrigated agriculture will increase
with the use of salt resistant crop strains. Irrigated cropland that has
become too saline for crop production and allowed to lie fallow, could be
brought back into production. Additionally, some salt marsh lands could be
used for agriculture.
Fertilizer, insecticide and herbicide use would not be changed with the
use of salt resistant crops on existing farm land. Significant pollu-
tant changes in the media are expected only with new or fallow lands.
Ecological Effects - In 1985, no significant ecological effects will result
from salt resistant crops. By 2010, commercial use of these crops seems
likely, and minor adverse aquatic and terrestrial effects will occur.
The use of salt resistant crops will permit cropping on brackish coastline
soils, on salt marsh areas, and on fallow saline land. Disruption of the
coastline and loss of wildlife habitat on fallow saline land will occur.
If significant cropping of brackish coast line soils occurs, the anticipated
increase of pesticides and associated runoff into adjacent estuary areas is
a probability. Such could have serious consequences in the nursery grounds
for shrimp, crab, and many species of commercial and game fish. The un-
fortunate location of these soils will also result in air borne drift re-
sulting from pesticide application measures.
Production Efficiency (4.3)
Production efficiency in crops result from improved biochemical and genetic
control of plant processes. Optimally a plant would be able to utilize nu-
trients, sunlight, and water more efficiently, and have desirable root de-
velopment, high yields, and higher quality yields.
Extensiveness - Substantial improvements in agriculture crop production
have been made in the past two decades. The improvements largely resulted
from a combination of new varieties, high rates of fertilization, high plant
populations, disease resistance plants, and control of insects and weeds.
While research results will continue to make small improvements in crop pro-
duction, comparable advances are not likely to be obtained in the future
until plant photosynthetic processes can be controlled. This does not
seem a likely development by 1985 and is questionable by 2010.
Environmental Factors - Use of crops with improved production efficiency
would significantly increase yields and improve quality of yields. However
increased productivity from this development will depend upon when and if
plant photosynthetic processes can be controlled.
Herbicide and insecticide use would not significantly change with this de-
velopment. Fertilizer requirements would increase with large changes in
production efficiency, especially if the protein content of a crop is ex-
pected to be maintained or increased.
29
-------
Increased fertilizer use could result in small increases in nutrient losses
to surface and ground water. While the crop would tend to use nutrients
more efficiently during growth, the potential for increased nutrient loss
exists immediately after application. No other pollutants changes in the
media are expected.
Ecological Effects - In 1985, no significant ecological effects will occur.
By 2010increased fertilizer use could have a minor adverse aquatic effect
if major developments have occurred in plant production efficiency. Terres-
trial and human health effects will not be significantly changed in 2010.
Research Needs - Continued research is needed for the development of produc-
tion efficiency in plants. On-going research projects should be monitored.
Disease, Insect, and Nematode Resistent Crops (4.4)
Research in plant genetics has also produced field crops with a high toler-
ance to disease, insects, and nematodes. Tough stems and stalks, plants
with an unappealing taste to insects, and hairy leaves are all genetic de-
velopments in crops that reduce losses to disease and insects.
Extensiveness - Nearly 75 percent of agriculture crops have some resistance
to at least one type of disease, insect, or nematode. The inbred resistance
is often in the form of higher tolerance of a hardier strain, but a crop is
rarely ever entirely resistant to all diseases or insects. Research con-
tinues to develop more resistant crop varieties to replace those less re-
sistant varieties currently used. By 2010, more crop varieties should be
available for commercial use.
Environmental Factors - Resistant crop varieties and improved resistant
varieties will continue to increase productivity in the future. Production
losses from certain diseases, insects, and nematodes can be substantially
reduced with resistant crops.
Fertilizer and herbicide use will not change with resistant crops. Insecti-
cide use will decrease, as highly insect resistant crops become available
for commercial use. Since crop resistance is generally insufficient to
completely control insects, supplemental chemical insecticide treatments are
normally required. However, fewer treatments are needed. There are a few
crop varieties that are entirely resistant to insects and have no insecti-
cide requirements.
Insecticide residues in the media will be reduced as more resistant crop
varieties are developed and adopted for use. By 2010, reductions in resi-
dues could be quite substantial.
In many areas, soil and nutrient losses will not be significantly affected by
resistant crops. In areas so affected with disease, insects, or nematodes
that crop yields are greatly reduced, resistant crop varieties will provide
for better ground cover and for more efficient use of fertilizer. This
will cause some reductions in soil and nutrient loss in those areas.
30
-------
Ecological Effect - Beneficial ecological effects with this development will
stem, primarily, from decreased insecticide use. There will be lower levels
of insecticide residues in surface water and in aquatic life. Decreased
insecticide use would benefit non-target wildlife species which are often
exposed to high concentrations during application. With decreased use,
there is less chance of direct exposure of toxic insecticides to humans.
In 1985, limited beneficial aquatic effects and minor terrestrial and human
health effects will result with resistant crops. All effects will increase
in intensity by 2010, when crops are expected to be even more resistant to
disease, insects, and nematodes and insecticide use will further decrease.
Aquatic effects will be important, terrestrial effects moderate and human
health effects limited by 2010.
Research Needs - Continued research is needed in the development of crop
varieties more resistant to disease, insects, and nematodes. On-going
research should be monitored.
5. Scouting and Integrated Control (5)
Two basic practices, subtrends, were analyzed within the trend: scouting
and integrated control. Scouting includes both surface scouting and remote
sensing. Integrated controls involve the use of biological and/or mechan-
ical treatment in conjunction with chemicals. In 1976, neither of these
practices were being extensively used, primarily because the diagnostic and
predictive techniques thus far developed and used in scouting have not been
reliable. In many cases, damage has occurred by the time pest problems
have been identified. Also, although integrated control is not a new con-
cept, many of the biological controls required to make the system effective
are still in the developmental stage. While these practices are not in
widespread use currently, they will likely become significant factors in
crop production in the future.
The .ecology panel rated the effects of the scouting and integrated control
trend as beneficial generally. Their ecological effects ratings for
aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health are as follows:
Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health
Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010
___ (index Rating)*
5.1 and 5.2 Scouting-
surface and remote
sensing +1 +3 +1 +3 0 +1
5.3 Integrated control +1 +4 +1 +4 0 +2
-/ Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major
31
-------
Scouting - Surface and Remote Sensing (5.1 and 5.2)
With surface scouting, pests, diseases and potential crop damage are deter-
mined by visual inspection; remote sensing scouting, however, primarily
involves the determination of insect populations, diseases and/or crop
damage through satellite systems.
Extensiveness - The use of scouting was estimated as minor in extensiveness
in 1976, but by 1985 it is expected to become more widely used, particularly
in the nonirrigated areas. By 2010, it will be widely used and represent a
major factor in crop production.
Environmental Factors - Scouting is not expected to have any significant
impact on fertilizer or herbicide use since nutrient requirements will be
unaffected and effective weed control will continue to require herbicide
applications. Significant reduction in insecticide use can be expected
when scouting becomes widespread; consequently, appreciable reductions of
pesticide residues in the soil and water are projected by 2010.
Ecological Effects - Scouting is expected to have beneficial effects on
the ecological systems because of the reduced pesticide use. Although
these effects are expected to be minor in 1985, moderate effects are antic-
ipated by 2010 involving the aquatic and terrestrial systems. With the
reduction of insecticide use, less re-entry problems are likely to occur,
reducing the health hazards. However, the overall effect on human health
is considered to be relatively minor in 2010.
Research Needs - Specific research needs have not been identified although
the timeliness and reliability of scouting needs further development. The
expanded use of scouting will depend more on education than it will in im-
provements in specific techniques.
Integrated Controls (5.3)
With integrated controls, chemical, biological, and mechanical treatment
methods are combined to achieve control of pests and diseases in crop pro-
duction. Successful integrated controls depend on natural pest population
control, along with a combination of techniques that contribute to the
suppression of pest-specific diseases such as resistant crop varieties,
sterile insect, attractants, use of predators, or chemical pesticides as
needed.
Extensiveness - Some of these methods are in their infancy and are not
yet widely accepted or feasible. Consequently, the overall use of inte-
grated controls in 1976 was limited. However, by 1985, use of this system
will increase to a moderate level and by 2010, integrated controls should
be in major use.
Environmental Factors - Significant reduction can be expected in insecti-
cide use with the adoption of integrated controls. Consequently, reduced
32
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pesticide residues can be expected in the soil and water, particularly in
2010, when these systems become widely used.
Ecological Effects - Integrated controls for the most part limit pesticide
use to target organisms; consequently, both the aquatic and terrestrial
system would be enhanced with the resultant pesticide reduction. However,
this enhancement should not become fully apparent until 2010 when the
systems come into wide use. Thus, use of integrated controls will have
only minor aquatic and terrestrial effects in 1985, but important effects
on these two systems by 2010. Human health effects will be limited in
2010.
Research Needs - Research in this area should be supported with education
in the benefits of these controls.
6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides (6)
A total of seven developments or subtrends involving new biological and
chemical pesticides were analyzed in the initial environmental assessment.
These include:
6.1 Micro-encapulated pesticides
6.2 Systemic pesticides
6.3 Surfactants for herbicides
6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides
6.5 Alternative formulations
6.6 Juvenile hormones
6.7 Pheromones
6.8 Sterile males
6.9 Predators and parasites
Although much is known about systemic pesticides, surfactants, biodegrad-
able pesticides, alternative formulations, predators, parasites, and sterile
males, the use of developments in these areas are still in the "field-scale
trials" or "limited use" stages and the probability or extent of adoption
and the measure of the environmental impacts of the individual developments
cannot yet be adequately gauged. Consequently, the ecology workshop com-
bined the developments in their evaluation into two categories: chemical
and biological. For this reason, the subsequent discussion covers the
trend in those two categories. Also since the developments are largely
experimental, the extensiveness is excluded from the discussion. The
ratings assigned by the ecology workshop are as follows:
33
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Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health
Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010
. (Index Rating)*
Development of new chemical
pesticides +1 +3 +1 +2 +1 +2
Development of new bio-
logical pesticides +1 +3 +1 +3 +1 +3
- Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major
Development of New Chemical Pesticides (6.1 - 6.5)
These developments include those of micro-encapulated pesticides, systemic
pesticides, surfactants, bio-degradable pesticides, and alternative formu-
lations.
Environmental Factors - The overall amounts of pesticides required are ex-
pected to be decreased from those that would be required with existing types
of pesticides. Most of the reductions would result from increased efficien-
cies. The greatest potential reduction would be associated with surfactants
with possible decreases in herbicide use by as much as 50 percent. Because
of expected reductions in requirements, less runoff into surface waters is
anticipated. There would not only be less runoff, but also less toxicity
if developments in biodegradable pesticide come into widespread use. A de-
crease in pesticide residues in the soil (relative to existing pesticides)
can be expected with these developments, particularly those of herbicides.
However, the full impacts of residues caused by systemic pesticides are not
known at this time, especially with nontarget organisms.
Ecological Effects - Beneficial ecological effects can generally be expected
with the greatest benefits expected from developments in biodegradable pest-
icides. Since these pesticides would ideally be selective and less toxic
to animals and humans, minor benefits can be anticipated in all ecosystems
by 1985. Species diversity would be increased in both the terrestrial and
aquatic systems and health hazards would be reduced. By 2010, use of new
chemical pesticides is expected to have moderate benefit and aquatic effects
and limited beneficial effects on terrestrial life and human health. Although
favorable effects can be expected, for the most part, potential problems may
exist with the developments in systemic and micro-encapsulated pesticides where
persistence may increase.
Research Needs - Research is needed on the environmental effects of chem-
ical pesticides as they are developed including studies of systemic resi-
dues and the nature of degradation products. Research is also needed on
bio-magnification in the food chain and effects of pesticides in the de-
composing food chain.
34
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Developments of New Biological Pesticide (6.6 - 6.9)
These developments include the use of juvenile hormones, pheromones,
sterile males, predators, and parasites.
Environmental Factors - Biological pesticides are normally insect specific;
consequently, the level of total insecticide use is not expected to de-
crease significantly as a result of adoption of new biological pesticides.
The use of juvenile hormones and pheromones can be expected to leave resi-
dues in the water and soil; however, their quantities are too insignificant
to be harmful to animals or humans.
Ecological Effects - On a national scale, the benefits of new biological
pesticides will be relatively minor with no significant breakthroughs re-
ceiving widespread technological applications expected by 1985. By 2010,
substantial advancement in these developments can be expected and the eco-
logical effects should be moderate in intensity. Developments are expected
to have regional implications where enhancement of regional ecological
systems may become significant.
Research Needs - Research is needed in the predator and parasite area to
determine the potential consequences of these agents after the target in-
sects have been controlled or eradicated, but present USDA use controls
are stringent enough to lessen the theoretical dangers. Research is more
importantly needed to further develop and optimize the use of pheromones,
juvenile hormones, and host specific bacterial and viral pest diseases.
7. Methods of Nutrient Application (7)
Seven subtrends involving methods of applying nutrients were analyzed.
These subtrends, listed below, involve the form in which fertilizer is
applied, the timing and frequency of application, and the type of appli-
cators used. Although there is a considerable amount of discussion of
these technologies in the literature, very little can be found on their
environmental implications. Consequently, environmental factor assess-
ments were based on a limited number of research findings. The evalua-
tions of the ecology workshop are shown below. According to the work-
shop, the use of foliar applications, liquid fertilizers, and improved
placement of fertilizer will have very little change in ecosystem ef-
fects. Fall applications were considered to have the most significant
effects, and these were expected to be adverse.
35
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Subtrend
1
Foliar application
2 Multiple applications
3 Fall applications
4 Liquid fertilizer
5 Aerial and floater
application
Improved nutrient place-
ment
7.7 Irrigation application
7.6
Aquatic
1985 2010
0
+1
-2
0
0
0
-1
0
+1
-3
0
0
0
-1
Terrestrial
1985 2010
(Index Rating)*
Human Health
1985
0
0
0
0
+1
0
0
0
+1
0
0
+2
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
2010
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
—' Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on
a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major.
Foliar Application (7.1)
With foliar applications, fertilizer is sprayed on growing plants so that
nutrients may be taken up through the leaves of the plant. Foliar applica-
tions are primarily used as an adjunct to conventional fertilization.
Extensiveness - This method is currently in an experimental stage with only
limited production trials. In 1976, the utilization of this technique was
slight and it is expected to increase to minor levels only by 2010.
Environmental Factors - Since nutrient uptake by plants is expected to be
more efficient through foliar applications, the expected runoff of nutrients
should be less than comparable levels of surface applied fertilizer. How-
ever, insufficient data exists to assess the environmental effects of actual
trials. Potential drift problems can occur; however, this can be effectively
controlled through proper timing of application.
Ecological Effects - No significant change in ecological effects are ex-
pected from the slight increase in the use of foliar application.
Research Needs - Research on the technology and agronomic results of
foliar application should include an investigation of environmental im-
plications.
Multiple Applications (7.2)
Multiple applications of fertilizer refer to more than one time of appli-
cation in order to realize optimum growth and crop production.
36
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Extensiveness - In 1976, greater than 40 percent of the cropland received
more than one application of fertilizer. This practice is expected to
increase significantly by 2010.
Environmental Factors - Multiple applications of fertilizer are generally
more agronomically efficient than single applications; consequently, overall
fertilizer requirements are expected to be slightly less under this practice
than with a single application. In multiple applications, fewer nutrients
are available for runoff or leaching. This coupled with the overall re-
duced fertilizer requirement (when compared to single application) is ex-
pected to reduce both nutrient runoff and leaching. An adverse impact on
the environment can be expected from a slight increase in soil compaction
associated with multiple applications.
Ecological Effects - Multiple applications can be expected to have rela-
tively minor but beneficial effects on the aquatic and terrestrial eco-
systems. The reduction in nutrients in the surface water will decrease
the potential for eutrophication. Also, the potential for nitrogen leach-
ing will be reduced. Human health will not be significantly affected with
this application practice.
Research Needs - Research is required to determine the differential in
nutrient runoff and leaching resulting from multiple and single applica-
tions.
Fall Application (7.3)
With fall application, fertilizer is applied during the fall season prior
to the primary growing season of the crops.
Extensiveness - In 1976, 39 percent of all fertilizers were fall applied.
This method of application occurred for the most part in nonirrigated areas.
Use will increase slightly by 2010.
Environmental Factors - Because of the fertilizer loss during the winter
prior to the growing season, this method of application is less efficient
than spring application. Consequently, the increasing amount of fertili-
zer fall applied will tend to increase the overall fertilizer use. Because
of the greater amounts of fertilizer applied and the potential of runoff
and leaching during the winter season, nutrient losses to surface and
ground water will be increased.
Ecological Effects - Fall application is considered to have the most ad-
verse ecological effects of any of the application techniques analyzed.
These occur both in the aquatic system (limited adverse effects in 1985
and moderate effects in 2010) and on human health (minor adverse effects
in 1985 and 2010). The increased nutrient runoff will result in increased
eutrophication while the increased leaching poses potential problems in
nitrate contamination of ground water. No significant effects are ex-
pected on the terrestrial system.
Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the regional environmental
impacts of fall application.
37
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Liquid Fertilizer (7.4)
Application of nutrients in liquid form is practiced partially as a means
of enhancing crop production and also as an efficient method of handling
fertilizer material.
Extensiveness - In 1975, 30 percent of all fertilizer applied was liquid.
This represents an average annual increase of close to 3 percent over the
past seven years. Use is expected to increase significantly by 2010 to
major levels.
Environmental Factors - The productivity of liquid fertilizers is generally
slightly higher than equivalent solid forms. To a slight extent the over-
all fertilizer requirement may be reduced when compared to the amount that
would be required with the use of solid fertilizer. Since there is no sub-
stantial differences in the pollution effect of the two forms of fertilizer,
a slight reduction can be expected in the availability of nutrients for
runoff and leaching.
Ecological Effects - No significant change in ecological effects is ex-
pected to result from the trend towards the increasing use of liquid fer-
tilizer.
Research Needs - On-going research involving liquid fertilizers should
address the environmental implications.
Aerial and Floater Application (7.5)
This method refers to fertilizer application by aircraft and by ground
vehicles (floaters) equipped with high floatation tires designed to reduce
soil compaction and to permit application during wet weather.
Extensiveness - In 1976, an estimated 50 percent of all cropland was
traversed at least once with floater vehicles for fertilizer applica-
tion. Less than five percent of cropland was estimated to have been
fertilized aerially. The total cropland having fertilizer applied by
either means is expected to increase slightly by 2010.
Environmental Factors - No significant changes are expected in the amounts
of nutrients delivered to surface and ground water as a result of the in-
crease in these means of application. A slight decrease in soil compaction
can be expected with the use of floaters. A small loss of fertilizers can
be expected because of the drift associated with aerial delivery; however,
overall this is not expected to be significant.
Ecological Effects - No significant effects are expected on either the
aquatic system or human health as a result of the increasing use of these
application methods. Floater application will have minor effects in 1985
and limited effects in 2010 which are beneficial to the terrestrial systems
from a reduction in soil compaction.
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Research Needs - Research is needed to determine nutrient runoff variations
associated with alternative application methods.
Improved Nutrient Placement (7.6)
Improved nutrient placement may involve either aerial, water, side band
or broadcast applications depending on prior methods and/or time of appli-
cation during the growing season.
Extensiveness - In 1976, an estimated 30 percent of the fertilizer was ap-
plied under improved placement practices. This percentage is expected to
increase only slightly by 2010.
Environmental Factors - As a result of improved practices, fertilizer re-
quirements, especially phosphorus, are expected to be slightly less than
under conventional practices. The potential also exists for less nutrient
loss, both because of a relatively smaller requirement and more efficient
nutrient utilization.
Ecological Effects - Although improved nutrient placement has the potential
for less nutrient runoff, no significant effects on the ecological systems
are expected.
Research Needs - No major environmental effects for research needs have
been identified.
Irrigation Application (7.7)
This practice involves the disposition of fertilizer with irrigation water
to the crops.
Extensiveness - An estimated 25 percent of all irrigated cropland received
applications of fertilizers in irrigation water in 1976. This is expected
to increase by 2010 to moderate levels.
Environmental Factors - This method of application facilitates multiple
applications and optimal rates and timing of applications, consequently,
increased fertilizer efficiency can be expected. Although efficiency
increases, loss of nutrients in the tailwater is expected to increase
also, but this increase is not expected to be substantial.
Ecological Effects - The increased nutrient loss to tail waters is expected
to result in adverse but minor effects on the aquatic system in 1985 and
2010. No significant effects are expected on the terrestrial system or
on human health.
Research Needs - Research is needed in determining the amounts of nutrient
loss associated with irrigation application, including variations in loss
due to alternative irrigation procedures.
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8. Soil-Plant Analysis (8)
The ecology workshop assigned ratings reflecting expected effects of soil-
plant analysis on ecological systems as listed below. The +_ sign indicates
that the effects could be beneficial or adverse, depending on what other
nutrient management practices occur.
Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health
Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010
8.1 Soil-PIant Analysis +1 +2 00 0 0
- Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 - minor and 5 = major
Soil-Plant Analysis (8.1)
Soil-plant analysis involves monitoring nutrient uptake, soil nutrients
available, and plant condition to provide information to adjust fertilizer
rates, timing, and cultural practices.
Extensiveness - About a fourth of the cropland under production was covered
by some form of soil analysis in 1976 while less than 5 percent was covered
by plant analysis. Normally these analyses are conducted once every three
years for a specific production unit; consequently the maximum coverage in
a given year that could be expected would be approximately one-third of the
cropland under production. It is anticipated that the actual coverage in
2010 will be less than 30 percent in any one year.
Environmental Factors - Generally, increased fertilizer application rates
can be expected as a result of the conduct of soil-piant analyses. Conse-
quently the increasing trend towards the use of these techniques should in-
crease overall fertilizer use. Although the overall use can be expected to
increase, the actual nutrient runoff should decrease because of the efficiency
involved. This efficiency would occur from better timing, more effective
nutrient balance, and by better meeting plant demands.
Ecological Effects - The effects of the increasing use of soil-plant analy-
sis on human health and the terrestrial systems are not expected to be sig-
nificant. However, effects on the aquatic system may be beneficial or
adverse depending on the other nutrient management techniques used. If
proper management is used, runoff will decrease, resulting in an improve-
ment of the system. However, if the expected increases in fertilizer use
involve improper management, degradation of the system can be expected.
Research Needs - On-going research designed to improve techniques in soil-
plant analysis should include investigations of environmental effects.
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9. Alternative Residual Disposal (9)
Alternatives for feedlot waste disposal include storage, on-site utiliza-
tion and off-site disposal. The most significant change involving the use
of these methods is expected to be an increase in off-site disposal; con-
sequently, this is the only alternative analyzed in the study. In its eco-
logical assessment, the workshop assigned the following ratings to reflect
the anticipated effects on each of the ecosystems.
Subtrend
9.1 Off-site Disposal
Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health
1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010
(Index Rating)*
-1 -2 +1 +1 -1 -1
*/
- Rating Index - Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 = minor and 5 = major.
Off-site Disposal (9.1)
Off-site disposal involves land application of both solids and liquids
through spreading and irrigation. Application is expected to be made
primarily on ranges, pastures and cropland.
Extensiveness - In 1976, about 500 million tons of animal wastes were
generated in feedlots. The amount is expected to increase by about 30
percent in 1985 and 70 percent by 2010. Most of the increase will be
disposed of through land application. At a typical disposal rate of 40
tons/acre, these incremental increases would require about 4 million
acres for disposal in 1985 and 8 million in 2010.
Environmental Factors - Manure generally improves the water holding capac-
ity of the soil and consequently, decreases total surface runoff. Although
the total surface runoff is decreased, the concentration of nitrogen and
organic material is increased in the runoff. There has been no research
which directly relates sediment loss with land application. However, with
a reduction in surface runoff, it can be concluded that a reduction in
sediment loss would occur. Application of manure can generally be ex-
pected to increase soil infiltration and soil nitrogen. This increases
the potential for production, but also, the potential for nitrate pollu-
tion of ground water.
Ecological Effects - The increase in nitrogen and BOD in surface water can
be expected to increase eutrophication and accelerate algae blooms in the
surface water with land application. Although the overall effect on the
aquatic system is expected to be adverse (minor in 1985 and limited in
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2010), the beneficial effect on the terrestrial system is expected to be
minor with an enhancement of the soil structure resulting from the in-
creased water holding capacity and the addition of organic matter. The
increased soil infiltration rates promote leaching and pose a potential
danger of nitrate poisoning in well water. This adverse human health ef-
fect is expected to be minor in 1985 and 2010, however.
Research Needs - Research is needed both to determine amounts of pollutants
generated with land application at varying rates and to assess ecological
effects of this application. Also, the economic feasibility of hauling
manure longer distances needs further analysis. Research in the ecological
area should include investigation of long-term effects of nitrates on
humans, the effects of high sodium content in rations on soil defloccula-
tion, and the rotations required to reduce the effects of copper, arsenic,
and sodium in rations.
10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates (10)
In Phase I of this study, grazing practices and stocking rates were analyzed
as two separate trends. However, because of the interdependence of these
practices, the two have been reclassified as a single trend in Phase II.
The environmental and ecological effects of these subtrends were evaluated.
The initial subtrend includes an examination of the effects brought about by
changes in the overall relationships between the two basic grazing systems:
continuous and specialized. The ratings assigned by the ecology workshop
to each of the subtrends are listed below.
Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health
1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010
•(Index Rating)*
10.1 and 10.2 Continuous
and specialized grazing +1 +2 +2+3 0 0
10.3 Complementary forage
seeding 00 0-1 0 0
10.4 Controlled livestock
grazing +1 +1 +1+3 0 0
— Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor, and 5 = major
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Continuous and Specialized Grazing (10.1 and 10.2)
Asjndicated above, this subtrend encompasses the two basic grazing systems
being utilized on range and pasture. In continuous grazing, livestock have
unrestricted access to any part of the range or pasture throughout the
grazing period. In the specialized systems, which include rotation systems,
access is restricted during the growing season. In this analysis, the focus
is on rangessince the differences of the two systems on pasture is minimized
with the annual improvement associated with pasture.
Extensiveness - In 1970 about 750 million acres of range were grazed; 85
percent of this was grazed under the continuous system while 15 percent was
grazed under the more intensive specialized systems. By 2010, it is esti-
mated that close to 800 million acres will be grazed, of which 35 percent
will be under specialized grazing and only about 65 percent under continuous
Environmental Factors - In general, the trend towards specialized systems
can be expected to increase the basal area, improve the quality of vege-
tation, and reduce bare areas on the range. Consequently, a reduction in
runoff of both sediment and nutrients can be expected. Soil conditions
will be somewhat improved from increased infiltration rate and decreased
compaction. On the other hand, the increased soil infiltration will in-
crease the potential of nitrate contamination of ground water by leaching.
Ecological Effects - Reduced runoff associated with this subtrend would
result in minor beneficial effects to the aquatic system in 1985 and limited
effects in 2010. The increased quality and productivity in vegetation would
increase the species diversity with limited beneficial effects in 1985 and
moderate effects in 2010 on the terrestrial ecosystems. No significant ef-
fect on human health is anticipated from the potential leaching of nitrate
to ground water because of improved infiltration rates on ranges.
Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the effects of nutrient
and sediment runoff under both specialized and continuous grazing systems.
Complementary Forage Seedings (10.3)
This subtrend involves the increasing use of restricted and seeded access
plots with the objective of complementing the existing forage, usually
before or after normal forages are available.
Extensiveness. Currently this practice is largely in the experimental stage
and is expected to have only limited application by 1985. By 2010, it will
be in moderate use according to the Range and Pasture Panel (Phase I -
Volume I).
Environmental Factors - Productivity in both forage and beef is expected to
be enhanced with the adoption of this grazing practice. The improvement
in vegetation will result from less pressure on the range from potential
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overgrazing. This practice can be expected to have both short-term and
long-term effects. In the short-term, increased runoff of sediment and
nutrients can be expected during periods of renovation and seeding. How-
ever, in the long-term, the improved vegetation will decrease the runoff.
The overall impact is not expected to be significant. The potential for
pollution of ground water will be increased.
Ecological Effects - The overall ecological effect from this practice is
not considered to be significant in the near future. By 2010, there may
be minor detrimental effects on the terrestrial systems brought about by
tame grasses in the seeded plots. The introduced grasses will reduce
plant diversity.
Research Needs - This practice is currently in the research stage. As it
is developed, research should include environmental effects assessments.
Controlled Livestock Grazing (10.4)
This subtrend reflects an increasing use of stocking rates specifically
designed to maintain or improve range conditions. This type of grazing
is accomplished under the "proper use" concept.
Extensiveness - In 1970, an estimated 85.7 million acres of range were
under exploitive type management and being overgrazed. This amounted to
approximately 10 percent of the range being grazed. The goal under the
Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resource Planning Act of 1974 is to reduce
this to zero by 2000.
Environmental Factors - The increasing use of proper stocking rates or con-
trolled grazing is expected to increase the production and quality of
forages on range. This improved vegetation will provide greater ground
cover and reduce runoff. Higher infiltration rates can be expected to
increase the potential for leaching and contamination of ground water.
However, this potential is not considered significant. Soil conditions
can be expected to be improved with less erosion and compaction and in-
creased infiltration.
Ecological Effects - Increasing use of controlled livestock grazing can be
expected to have beneficial effects on both aquatic and terrestrial systems
However, the effects are expected to be only minor by 1985. By 2010, the
effects on the terrestrial system should be moderate as result of in-
creased plant diversity.
Research Needs - A need exists for research on the extent of nutrient and
sediment runoff under controlled grazing.
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B. Silviculture Sector Trends
Five (5)_trends and 16 subtrends, as shown in Exhibit II-3, were selected
for detailed analysis within the silviculture sector. The rationale for
selection of the trends, with the exception of the number 5 trend, was that
each trend was rated as having relatively high environmental implications
in the silviculture sector by the Phase I (Volume I) workshop. The number
5 trend was selected because one of its subtrends, clearcutting, has be-
come a highly sensitive and controversial issue with the public.
Trends and subtrends within silviculture have different levels of regional
significance and these differences are noted within the discussion sections
below. In particular, two of the top ranked subtrends, permanent road con-
struction (1.1) and mechanical site preparation (2.2) are confined almost
exclusively to certain regions, i.e., permanent road construction in the
Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast, and mechanical site preparation in the
South.
As with the agriculture trends, detailed analysis of silviculture trends-
subtrends includes extensiveness of use, environmental factors, ecological
effects, and research needs. However, ecological effects of silviculture
trends were not determined in a formal workshop setting as were the eco-
logical effects of agriculture trends. Since current literature deals
with ecological assessments of different silviculture practices, much of
the ecological assessment presented herein required only a detailed re-
view of the literature. Additionally, however, a professional ecologist
reviewed the ecological findings and added pertinent information where
necessary. The present study of silviculture was largely confined to trends
stimulated by technological developments in agriculture and silviculture.
Further research should investigate the kinds that reflect national and
international economic developments.
Ecological effects were evaluated and rated in five areas for silviculture's
subtrends-trends: aquatic life, terrestrial life, human health, recreational
opportunity and aesthetics. The recreation and aesthetics effects of sil-
vicultural activities are considered important because they, too, are a part
of the composite ecosystem.
1. Access to Timber Resources (1)
Four subtrends are included for detailed analysis in the access to timber
resources trend: permanent road construction, project road construction,
road maintenance, and road reconstruction. These subtrends are of par-
ticular environmental importance in the Western region where terrain is
often a limiting factor in road construction.
Permanent Road Construction (1.1)
Permanent roads will be constructed to gain access to yet untapped old
virin qrowth forests, primarily in the West. Once built, these roads
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Exhibit II-3.
Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in
silviculture
Trend
Subtrend
1. Access to Timber Resource
2. Site Preparation
3. Log Extraction
4. Utilization
5. Cutting System
1.1 Permanent road construction
1.2 Road maintenance
1.3 Project road construction
1.4 Road reconstruction
2.1 Log extraction
2.2 Mechanical preparation
2.3 Burning prescription
2.4 Chemical treatment
2.5 Fertilizer treatment
2.6 Soil moisture control
3.1 Harvest unit layout
3.2 Equipment use and development
4.1 Extraction residue recovery
4.2 Minimum size and quality extension
4.3 Species use enlargement
5.1 Clearcutting
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will be used continually as collector and feeder roads for the dendritic
network of logging spur roads around them.
Extensiveness - In 1976, the total mileage of permanent forest access roads
in the U.S. was not known. However, forest roads in the northwest regions
of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and southeast Alaska totaled some 248,000
miles. Considerably fewer permanent forest roads exist in the Rocky Moun-
tains and in the East. Additionally, the private silviculture industry
has its own systems of permanent access roads which are not monitored by
public agencies.
New construction of permanent access roads is expected, for the most part,
to relate directly to the timber sales policy of the National Forest Ser-
vice (NFS). Current road construction, with the even-flow, non-declining
policy of NFS, is about 6,200 miles per year with the completion of all per-
manent roads scheduled before 2030. Yearly construction is expected to de-
cline through 2010, as the need for permanent access roads diminishes. An
estimated 80 percent of all NFS road construction and 100 percent of Bureau
of Land Management (BLM) construction will occur in the West. In the East
and South, road systems have long been established and construction of per-
manent roads will be minor.
Environmental Factors - As a result of NFS even-flow, non-declining produc-
tion policies, construction of permanent roads is not expected to increase
annual silviculture production. Should this policy change to meet infla-
tion and the increasing demand for timber products, then the NFS road
building program could be accelerated. This would result in road access
to far more timber area and volume per year. Permanent roads will remove
some commercial forest from production, but production losses will be
rather insignificant.
Road construction, depending importantly on regional location, results in
soil loss, changes in water quality, water yield, and water flow patterns.
The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency has established guidelines for
minimizing the environmental impacts of road constructions. Those guide-
lines include optimum road location for the type of terrain, lower stand-
ards for road width and grade, and use of cuts and fills to minimize soil
movement. Offsetting the beneficial effects of these practices will be the
need to construct roads in areas previously left unlogged. These areas are
most often increasingly steep with difficult terrain that does not lend it-
self to road construction. Although soil losses are usually greater for
road construction than for other silviculture practices, better planning
and management of road construction in the future will produce less severe
environmental impacts. Roads, once constructed and stabilized, should not
result in further soil losses.
Pesticide and nutrient loss will not be a factor in road construction. Cer-
tain building materials (e.g., asphalt and oil) may be transported from the
site via runoff and sediment to receiving surface waters.
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Ecological Effects - Construction of permanent roads (and other logging-
related roads) will continue to have adverse aquatic and terrestrial ef-
fects in 1985 and 2010. These effects are expected to decrease in inten-
sity with better planning of road construction and with the decline in
total annual road construction through 2010. Aquatic effects include
turbidity, sediment loading, impediment of water flow, and with stream-
side road construction, thermal pollution with the removal of forest can-
opy. New edge areas will benefit wildlife, but roads may also disrupt
normal wildlife travel lanes and will create a hazard to wildlife crossing
such roads. Excessive sedimentation can be destructive of benthic
organisms and their living strata, and can destroy trout and salmon
spawning areas.
Aesthetic impacts of permanent road construction can be minimized with
careful road location with respect to visibility from other viewpoints.
However, even with optimum road location, aesthetics will be adversely
affected if the road is to virgin areas. Some recreational opportunities
will increase with greater access to forests. However, wilderness exper-
iences will be essentially eliminated with road construction into virgin
areas. Human health should not be significantly affected with permanent
road construction.
Research Needs - More effective planning and management are the key to re-
duction of the environmental impacts of road construction. Necessary plan-
ning includes the development of improved standards. Consequently, re-
search is needed to determine minimum road standards compatible with road
use requirements in areas such as cuts, fills, bed width, and ballast.
Road Maintenance (1.2)
Generally, all permanent and project access roads require constant atten-
tion to insure that logging traffic is not impeded and that drainage sys-
tems are kept free of obstacles. Additionally, access roads currently
not in use are periodically checked for damage.
Extensiveness - Extensiveness of road maintenance on timber access roads is
not known for 1976, but estimated to be limited. As more permanent and
project roads are built, maintenance needs will increase and by 2010
use is expected to reach important levels.
Environmental Factors - Road maintenance will not directly affect silvi-
culture productivity. However, productivity will be indirectly affected if
road maintenance is needed before a timber area can be reentered for har-
vesting. Resource use patterns will not be changed with road maintenance
practices.
Road maintenance can potentially increase or decrease soil loss to surface
water. Erosion problems will decrease with the increased use of road sur-
facing, use of mulches or green cover on bared roadway soil, and clearance
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of drainage canals. Grading slopes back to the original slope condi-
tions will often reduce erosion losses, also. However, grading of un-
surfaced roads can cause increased soil loss temporarily. In general,
maintenance of a road is considered preferable to no maintenance from
the environmental viewpoint.
Ecological Effects - Road maintenance can result in either minor beneficial
or adverse aquatic effects depending upon the type of maintenance practice.
With some practices, sediment loadings to surface water will temporarily be
increased. Clearance of drainage systems and certain other practices will
reduce the sediment load.
Effects on the terrestrial ecosystem will be minimal. Proper drainage flow
and surfacing of roads will reduce soil erosion losses.
Aesthetic values will not be significantly affected by road maintenance.
Recreational and wilderness opportunities will be increased to the extent
that passages to recreational areas are open. Human health effects are not
a significant factor with road maintenance.
Research Needs - Research is needed in the development of equipment designed
to minimize soil disturbance.
Project Road Construction (1.3)
Project roads are built solely to gain access to a certain area for har-
vesting purposes. After harvesting, these roads are abandoned or retired
with the idea that they can be reopened at a later date.
Extensiveness - Extensiveness of project road construction in 1976 was esti-
mated to be moderate and expected to increase slightly by 1985 with a de-
crease back to a moderate level of use by 2010. The peak in 1985 will re-
sult from expected increased harvesting activity on private and federal
forests in the West, requiring the construction of access roads, either
permanent or project. In general, each square mile (640 acres) of timber
harvested requires about 5 miles of road access but this amount varies
with the harvesting system and local forest conditions.
Environmental Factors - As with permanent access roads, project roads will
not directly affect annual timber production based on current NFS policies.
Project roads will only provide access to resources so that harvesting can
occur.
Project road construction has the same environmental implications as per-
manent road construction, primarily increasing soil loss. However, soil
loss could be greater for project roads in that these roads may not be so
carefully engineered as permanent roads. Additionally, project roads that
are not surfaced will tend to have greater soil loss. Properly engineered
project roads do have the potential to be reconverted to vegetative growth
or even timber (although compaction will reduce soil quality in that road
area). Thus, soil loss with project roads is often temporary, occurring
only with harvesting activity and until the area is revegetated.
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Ecological Effects - Again project roads present the same ecological ef-
fects as permanent roads, but with the potential for recovery with reveg-
etation. The aquatic ecosystem will experience increased turbidity, sedi-
ment loading, altered water-flow patterns, and occasionally thermal pollu-
tion when roads are placed too close to streams.
While soil erosion will be increased (often temporarily) and wildlife
habitat and travel lanes disrupted, project roads will ultimately bene-
fit some wildlife species. On road abandonment, a new succession of wild-
life will enter the area as revegetation occurs. Increased edge will in-
crease species diversity. Revegetation will provide more forage for elk
and deer. As canopy and overstory close over the abandoned roads, these
effects will diminish.
Project roads are less in sight of traffic and temporary, so that their
aesthetic effects will tend to be minimal. There will, however, be non-
pleasing visual experiences with some project roads.
Recreational opportunities, as hunting and wildlife viewing, will increase
with project access roads. Again, wilderness experience will be diminished
in many areas. Human health will not be significantly affected with pro-
ject road construction.
Research Needs - As in the case of permanent road construction, there is
a need for research in development of minimum road standards for project
access.
Road Reconstruction (1.4)
In some cutover forest areas, roads were constructed with no thought to
future use. Many are poorly located on the terrain and inadequately con-
structed and maintained. The roads must be partially or completely re-
constructed for forest reentry.
Extensiveness - Road reconstruction is currently estimated to be relatively
minor, but expected to increase to moderate levels by 2010. All commercial
forests will experience some type of road reconstruction. The USFS is ex-
pected to reconstruct approximately 31,000 miles of roads per year. The
number of access roads that will be reconstructed or reestablished on
better routes in privately-owned forests is not known.
Environmental Factors - Road reconstruction indirectly affects silviculture
productivity in that these roads allow access to timber area for harvesting,
Road reconstruction will result in soil loss, but loss should usually be
less than that for permanent or project road constructions. However, if
reconstruction follows an original road bed that was poorly located for
the soil and slope conditions, significant soil loss will occur. Proper
relocation of a poorly located road is usually preferable to allowing
the original road to remain.
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Ecological Effects - Assuming care in layout and construction, road recon-
struction will have an adverse, but temporary effect on the aquatic eco-
system. Receiving waters will experience increased turbidity, sediment
loading, and a potential reduction in species diversity in highly im-
pacted areas.
Terrestrial effects from road reconstruction will be similar to those re-
sulting from permanent and project roads. However, wildlife disruptions
may be less intense since the roads are already present and reconstruction
will not involve virgin timber areas.
Aesthetic values may not be particularly affected with road reconstruction.
These roads are already present, and, therefore, any displeasing aesthetic
impacts occurred with the original construction.
Recreational opportunities will benefit in that access to timber areas is
enlarged with road reconstruction. Human health effects are not significant
with road reconstruction.
Research Needs - No specific research needs were identified. However, the
needs for research involving minimum road standards discussed previously
would be applicable to this subtrend.
2. Site Preparation (2)
Site preparation involves practices that treat the soil surface to encourage
the desired type of forest regeneration growth. Usually new forest growth
is reestablished as soon as possible after harvest in logged areas. Six
subtrends are evaluated in this site preparation trend. Each subtrend will
have regional importance since each forest type utilizes different prepar-
ations for that particular forest growth.
Log.Extraction (2.1)
Log extraction methods are used for the establishment or regeneration of a
timber species that requires a mineral soil environment for germinating
and seedling stages. This method involves dragging logs across the ground,
pushing aside the organic overlayer and brush, and baring soil for a seed
bed.
Extensiveness - In 1976, extensiveness of use was estimated to be moderate.
By 1985 and through 2010, use should decline to limited levels, reflecting
the anticipated replacement of natural regeneration with artificial regen-
eration. All four forest regions have used log extraction methods to some
extent, for the regeneration of conifers. However, this site preparation
practice seems to be more common in the West after harvest of old growth
forests. Site preparation will occur only once in every rotation of 30
to 100 years.
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Environmental Factors - With prompt site preparation and regeneration,
productivity often increases. Resource use patterns are not expected to
change with log extraction practices.
Baring the soil with this practice will result in increased runoff, soil
erosion and sediment loadings of receiving waters. The steepness of the
terrain, type of soil, climatic conditions, and degree of soil disturbance
will determine the severity of erosion and runoff losses. For example,
scarifying red pine stands on the flat terrain of Minnesota will result
in minimal soil movement, cable yarding on steep Western slopes will re-
sult in significant soil loss. However, forest soils would only be sub-
ject to these soil disturbances once during each 30 to 100 year rotation
and then only until vegetation reappears to protect against soil movement.
Currently the trend with log extraction practices is toward better manage-
ment to minimize soil erosion and runoff losses.
Ecological Effects - The effects of log extraction practices on the aquatic
ecosystem will be relatively minor. Since bared soil tends to revegetate
quickly, the opportunity for surface transport of materials to water is
shortlived. Also, forest areas will only be subject to site preparation
every 30 to 100 years. However, log extraction on certain soils and steep
terrains could result in large enough sediment loadings so that for a
period of time area aquatic life will suffer adverse effects.
Plant and wildlife diversity may decrease in the terrestrial ecosystem.
Log extraction practices prevent natural plant succession from reaching
climax communities. Wildlife habitat, food supplies, and travel lanes
are also destroyed with this practice. With revegetation of the forest
area, the emerging ecological community may be quite different from the
original community.
Since the principal objective of site preparation with log extraction is to
return the forest to production as quickly as possible after harvest, dis-
pleasing aesthetic effects will be shortlived. Recreation opportunities
will not be significantly affected. Creation of more edge area will tem-
porarily shelter more wildlife for hunting and viewing. Human health ef-
fects are not considered to be significant.
Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the minimum amount of site
preparation required in establishing regeneration. Also, research is needed
to develop more efficient methods and less damaging alternatives to log
extraction.
Mechanical Preparation (2.2)
Mechanical preparation involves the use of mechanical equipment having
blades, rakes, gouges, chopping wheels, or other implements for vegetation
destruction. The forest is reduced to bare ground to favor reproduction
of pine primarily in the South.
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Extensiveness - The evaluation workshop (Phase I, Volume I) estimated this
practice to be in moderate use in 1976, increasing to important use by
1985, and declining back to moderate levels by 2010. In the South, an
estimated 29.6 million acres of timber stands, hardwood and pine hardwood,
could be cleared and planted to faster growing, more desirable pine. Me-
chanical site preparation will be used on much of the converted forest
stands. However, a large part of these 29.6 million acres is owned by
private non-industrial interests who are not necessarily interested in
silviculture production from their lands. Thus, the actual acreage of
hardwood forests available for pine conversion is not known.
Environmental Factors - Intensive mechanical preparation in the South, for
example, is considered to result in the most serious erosion problem that
the Southern hill country experiences. The broadcast baring of soils,
some of them already depleted from past agricultural use, may foster a
dangerous cycle of topsoil and nutrient loss and increased sediment load-
ings in streams. Compaction and sealing the macrospore structure of forest
soils prevents proper water absorption and increases surface runoff. Use
of lighter equipment and reducing soil disruptions will tend to reduce the
environmental impacts of this practice. However, improvement will be com-
plicated by the fragility of some of the depleted soils now supporting low
grade forests.
Ecological Effects - Aquatic ecosystems will experience increases in tur-
bidity related pollution and in thermal pollution to a point where aquatic
life may be endangered. Mechanical site preparation results in the conver-
sion of a diverse ecosystem to a monoculture system. Wildlife numbers and
diversity are lost with the destruction of habitat, food supplies, and
travel lanes. Additionally, the land itself may suffer from losses of top-
soil, nutrient cycles, and water holding capacity. Establishment of new
vegetative cover will help control erosion, but local-regional terrestrial
ecosystems will be permanently changed with conversion to monoculture forests.
Aesthetic values will be adversely affected by this practice. After site
preparation, these areas give the impression of agriculture land, with very
few residues remaining on the ground. However, where mechanical site pre-
paration has occurred, aesthetics do not seem to be affected to the point
of public resistance to this practice. Elimination of diverse forests re-
duces recreational potential, including hunting and wildlife viewing. For
a period following site preparation, quail hunting will improve in some
areas until the new forest closes in. Human health will not be affected
with this practice.
Research Needs - Research is needed to develop more efficient equipment used
in mechanical preparation. Also, research to develop improved alternatives
to mechanical preparation is desired.
Burning Prescription (2.3)
Prescribed and controlled burns can be used as site preparation practices
on a less intense scale than log extraction or mechanical site prepara-
tions. Prescribed burning reduces vegetative competition without the
damaging soil disruption effects.
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Extensiveness - Annual needs for all prescribed burning total some 12.35
million acres, with 95 percent of these acres located in the South. How-
ever, this practice is also used for disposal of logging residues, as well
as site preparation. Thus, total acreages of prescribed burns for site
preparation alone are not known, but estimated to be of moderate use in
1976. Use is expected to remain fairly constant (moderate) through 1985
to the end of the study period. Future air quality regulations could
restrict the use of this practice in the South.
Environmental Factors - Productivity of prescribed burn areas is enhanced
by the elimination of overstory and the preparation of seed beds. Certain
species, as jack pine, require fire to prepare their cones to drop seeds.
Fire also releases nutrients to the soil which can lead to production in-
creases in some areas.
Under controlled conditions, fire should not disturb soil to the extent
of causing surface runoff, sediment loadings, or thermal pollution in
surface waters. Nutrients released by fire prescription may be leached
away if not quickly taken up again. Thus, nitrates in the ground water
could temporarily be increased.
Ecological Effects - Ecological effects reflect the use of fire under con-
trolled conditions only. Aquatic effects are very minor from controlled
burns. Terrestrial ecosystems will be affected with the reduction of wild-
life habitat, food supply, and cover areas. The season of the year and the
wildlife species present will determine how severe terrestrial disruptions
will be. In general, terrestrial life effects are considered to be less
for prescribed burns than for mechanical site preparation and log extraction
practices. Additionally, the nutrient cycle is temporarily accelerated,
but should return to its norm without significant effects on the soil.
Aesthetics will be affected, but should recover within a relatively short
time. Recreational opportunities are increased to the extent that clear-
ance of underbrush provides for easier access to wildlife in hunting. Human
health will not be affected with current and projected use of prescribed
burns. Burning vegetation does not release toxic substances or noxious
fumes to the air. The amount of particulate matter from controlled burnings
is also relatively low.
Research Needs - There is a need for research in determining the time re-
quired for soil biota to recover from prescribed and controlled burning.
Since the recovery time will vary considerably between regions, study is
required to identify these regional differences. Further, more research
is needed to determine the optimal time (seasonally) to burn in order to
minimize the ecological impacts.
Chemical Treatment (2.4)
Chemical treatment for site preparation involves the application jof herbi-
cides to remove hardwood trees and/or brush weed species and to provide
for replacement with more desirable species, often softwood. Herbicide
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applications may be followed by fire to remove dried vegetation. With
brush removal only, fire is often not needed, and natural revegetation
will replace the cover removed.
Extensiveness - In 1976, the use of herbicides for site preparation was
minor. By 2010, this practice is expected to increase slightly to limited
levels. When herbicides are used, application rates are comparable to
those used in agriculture, but application is once in a 30 to 100 year
rotation. It is estimated that about 99 million acres may be treated with
herbicides over time.
Environmental Factors - Herbicide use for site preparation will enhance
productivity and has certain advantages over site preparation methods that
disrupt the soil surface. Soil loss will be much less for this practice
and may be insignificant in most areas. Water flow will be tempoarily
increased until revegetation occurs.
Herbicide levels in receiving waters may be increased with surface runoff
and aerial drift during application. While herbicide application in a
given area will usually occur, only once during a 30 to 100 year rotation
and have minimal impacts over time, careless application (directly spraying
over water or aerial application on a windy day) could potentially result
in significant pollution levels in water. Streamside buffer zones and
careful application methods are expected to minimize herbicides entering
surface waters, however.
Ecological Effects - With careful application, herbicide use for site prep-
aration is not expected to have significant aquatic effects. Terrestrial
ecosystems are affected adversely with herbicide use. All vegetation is
removed, thus destroying wildlife habitat, food supplies, and cover plus
reducing species diversity. Plant and animal successions may be abruptly
changed with this practice.
Clearance of underbrush will make for easier access for certain recreational
opportunities, e.g., improved hunting, easier hiking. Aesthetic impacts
will be adverse with the destruction of vegetation. Human health effects
will be insignificant with careful application. Potential human health
dangers do exist with direct contact with certain herbicides during appli-
cation.
Research Needs - Further research is needed in identifying the effects of
herbicide in the environment as a result of chemical treatment. This re-
search is expected to bring into focus the reaction of the soil biomass
to chemicals and the impacts of volatization of chemicals in the atmosphere.
Fertilizer Treatment (2.5)
Fertilizer treatment is required for site preparation in forest areas that
require nutrient supplement for successful establishment of desired species.
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Extensiveness - Fertilizer treatment of forest land is used primarily in
the South, where moist, phosphate deficient soils need nutrient supple-
ment for the growth of loblolly pine. Currently the use of fertilizer in
all forest areas is minor, however. By 1985 and through 2010, use is
expected to increase only to limited levels. The expected increase in the
South's use of fertilizer will occur with the increased conversion of poorly
drained lands (wetland areas) to forest areas. Some 2.0 million acres of
land will have been drained by 1977 with many areas requiring phosphate
supplements of 50-100 Ib/acre.
Environmental Factors - Productivity of an area will be increased with fer-
tilizer application, especially when drainage plus phosphate addition cre-
ates a pine forest out of an area previously unable to support forest growth.
Fertilizer use will be increased from a zero base to high levels of appli-
cation. Phosphate requirements are expected to be 50-100 Ib/acre and phos-
phate levels in nearby surface water may increase with fertilizer treatment.
However, no other pollutant changes will result.
Ecological Effects - The ecological effects assessment reflects only the
use of fertilizer treatment for site preparation (ecological effects of
land drainage are presented below in the soil moisture control subtrend).
High levels of phosphate application could potentially cause eutrophica-
tion in the aquatic ecosystem. Species diversity and water quality will
be adversely affected in aquatic systems. Terrestrial effects (from ferti-
lizer application alone) will not be significant. Human health effects
are not expected to result from fertilizer application, although phosphate
loads may affect the potability of water.
Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the environmental effects
of phosphate applied to forest lands, primarily in relation to the aquatic
system. The effects of other nutrients, if applicable, should also be
assessed.
Soil Moisture Control (2.6)
Soil moisture control refers herein to the drainage of wetlands in the South
for the successful establishment of desired forest species, usually loblolly
pine.
Extensiveness - Extensiveness of soil moisture control is expected to be
limited and remain fairly stable between 1976 and 1985. By 2010, use should
decline to minor levels. The total amount of wetland available for conver-
sion is not known, but is probably not less than 5 million acres.
Environmental Factors - Silviculture productivity will increase with the
drainage of wetlands and the establishment of loblolly pine forests. Fer-
tilizer use is expected to increase from a zero base to relatively high
application rates, e.g., 50-100 Ib/acre of phosphates.
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Drainage will result in water movement from stagnant areas, but the move-
ment is expected to be too slow to result in significant sediment trans-
port. Surface water may become charged with phosphates, but the levels
have not been determined.
Ecological Effects - Soil moisture control is expected to have major aquatic
and terrestrial effects. Drainage of wet lands will affect water table
levels. This practice may result in a complete change from an aquatic
ecosystem to a terrestrial ecosystem. Many wetlands provide habitat that
is critical for the existence of wildlife species, especially waterfowl
using wetlands for wintering areas. Plant species and the ecological
community existing in the moist environment will be replaced with the
limited diversity of pine forests.
Recreational opportunities for waterfowl hunting and wildlife viewing will
be diminished with drainage of wetlands. Aesthetics will be adversely af-
fected since drainage of wetlands represents an irreversible change in the
type of visual experience available to man. Human health is not expected
to be affected by actual drainage of wetlands except that insect popula-
tions may be reduced in stagnant areas.
Research Needs - There is a need for research involving the long term ef-
fects of extensive drainage and phosphate loadings associated with site
preparation in the wetlands of the Southeast. Ecosystem changes may be ir-
reversible and long-term species diversity effects should be assessed.
3. Log Extraction (3)
Log extraction is the process employed to bring useable portions of a tree
to the point of loading for transport. Methods and equipment used in log
extraction vary with regional difference in timber size, species harvested,
terrain, and other physical aspects. Closely tied to log extraction is the
cutting system (5) trend which considers the extent and type of timber to
be removed. Log extraction methods and equipment will largely be determined
by the type of cutting system.
Harvest Unit Layout-Intensity of Effort (3.1)
This practice is particularly important in the harvest of old growth forests
in the West where silviculture methods generally favor conversion from un-
even aged old growth to even aged regeneration. Planning has always been
an important phase of extraction, but generally oriented toward the lowest
cost. This practice has increased the intensity of effort to balance
cost savings against environmental cost. Planning trends are toward better
control of size and shape of harvest units, proper location of cutting
units, use of vegetation to hide cuts from conspicuous view, and mixing
of clearcut and selective cut systems to achieve minimal environmental
impacts.
Extensiveness - Planning of harvest unit layouts is expected to become in-
creasingly important in old growth forests of the West. Extensiveness was
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estimated to be moderate in 1976, and will be important in 1985 and 2010.
Since much of the remaining old growth forests are in federal ownership,
institutional authority exists to achieve controlled planning of harvesting.
Environmental Factors - Productivity is not likely to be significantly
changed with careful harvest planning. Timber may be removed from a
given cutting block at a slower rate with planning and thus, decreases
productivity somewhat. However, planning may also increase log utiliza-
tion and increase productivity.
Surface runoff and soil loss will be reduced with careful harvest planning,
but losses may still be significant in some areas. Streamside buffer zones
may also be used in the harvesting to reduce sediment transport, although
such management zones are primarily used to provide stream shade and pro-
tect the water temperature. Nutrient levels will increase in the soil with
timber residues remaining, and these nutrients are potentially available
for leaching.
Ecological Effects - Harvesting will result in adverse ecological effects,
but the effects are expected to be less intense with better harvesting
plans. Soil losses will be reduced but receiving waters will still exper-
ience increased sediment and turbidity. These effects will occur but once
during each harvesting period, and then only until revegetation appears.
Wildlife habitat will still be destroyed, but intensive harvest planning
will reduce the adverse impacts. The ecological community will be less
diverse and less stable in even-aged forests compared to old growth forests.
Recreational opportunities are expected to decrease with this practice. Ad-
verse aesthetic effects will be minimized with careful planning, but har-
vesting is still expected to result in some displeasing visual views.
Human health will not be significantly affected by this subtrend.
Research Needs - Long-term environmental impacts resulting from trends in
harvest unit layout-intensity of effort need to be determined.
Equipment Use and Development (3.2)
Until recently, log extraction methods used machinery adapted from other
uses. Now the trend is toward machinery designed specifically for timber
harvesting needs with consideration for timber size, species harvested,
and terrain. Fewer innovative changes will be made with machinery for
harvest of old growth forests in the West. In the South, however, equip-
ment is being developed to thin young stand and to harvest pulpwood and
smaller saw timber. Older manual operations will give way to fully mech-
anized methods.
Extensiveness - The increase in roundwood production projected to 2010 will
increase the need for far more equipment, especially in the North and South,
possibly double what was in use in 1976. In the West, equipment needs are
expected to remain fairly stable, since production will decline slightly
here. Extensiveness of equipment use and development is moderate in 1976
and expected to increase to major levels by 2010.
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Environmental Factors - Productivity is expected to increase significantly
with new equipment developments. Tree pulling equipment can recover 20 to
^b percent of the tree volume that otherwise stays in the ground. Soil
compaction is less with newer equipment designs, so regeneration of a cut
area will be enhanced.
Many of the new equipment designs are effective in reducing soil disrup-
tions and consequent soil loss and water damages on steep and fragile
slopes. However, it should be emphasized that equipment changes will re-
duce, but not prevent problems of surface runoff, sediment losses, and
water quality degradation.
Ecological Effects - Development of new equipment and its use will reduce
the adverse ecological effects of harvesting. Sediment and resulting
turbidity will be reduced in the aquatic systems. Soil compaction and
erosion will be reduced and benefit the terrestrial ecosystems.
Recreational opportunities and aesthetics will not be significantly af-
fected by this subtrend. Human health is not a factor with equipment use
and development.
Research Needs - Research to design new equipment to meet the specific needs
of each of the regions is needed. Logging equipment needs to be developed
which will decrease soil disturbance, detachment and transport. Research
efforts should be focused on the requirements in the North and South be-
cause of the significant increases in production expected.
4. Utilization (4)
Silviculture productivity can be increased by utilizing the total forest
biomass. More fiber is harvested per unit of area through extraction resi-
due recovery, minimum size and quality extension, and species use enlarge-
ment practices.
Extraction Residue Recovery (4.1)
With extraction residue recover, greater use is made of the total fiber in
each harvested tree. While only large sound logs used to be merchantible
in the past, smaller logs and logs with defects are now being marketed.
Extensiveness - About one half of the nation's logging residues are gener-
ated in Pacific Coast forests, 22 million tons of logging residues each
year. Logging residues will vary with forest ownership and type of sales
method. On industrial owned forest land, average residue volume is 1,330
ft3/acre. On national forest land, average residue volume is 3,130 ft3/
acre. The primary reason for greater utilization on private industrial
owned land is the type of sales program. Lump sum sales programs, com-
pared to the NFS scaled volume sales program, results in greater utiliza-
tion of logging residues.
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Between 1968 and 1972, recovery of utility logs more than doubled, in-
creasing from 177 million ft3 to 480 million ft3. During the same period,
roundwood chip production increased from 75.5 thousand tons to 2049 thou-
sand tons.
Even with the increased use of logging residues in the past ten years, the
potential exists for further increased residue recovery. At the national
level, 80 percent of pulp mill requirements are supplied by roundwood, and
only 20 percent by residues. In the fuel using sector of industry in the
Pacific Northwest, 15 percent of fuel requirements are from mill residues,
the remaining 85 percent comes from fossil fuels.
Currently, it is not economically feasible to transport and market some
forest residues at existing process locations on the Pacific Coast area.
In the NFS, residue material is being yarded to concentration points (YUM
program) where it is decked for future use or for burning.
The evaluation workshop (Phase I, Volume I) estimated extraction residue
recovery to have moderate levels of use in 1976 and 1985. By 2010, use will
decline to minor levels, primarily due to more efficient harvesting tech-
niques and the replacement of old growth forests with young even-age tim-
ber in the West.
Environmental Factors - Recovery of marketable forest residues will in-
crease total annual silviculture production. Other forest residues are
not marketable and are collected for burning purposes only.
The environmental impacts of increasing utilization of the forest biomass
will be beneficial up to a point. Partial removal of forest residues re-
duces fire hazards, provides barriers against surface runoff and soil loss,
and provides protection for the regenerating forest. Additionally, par-
tial removal of residues will reduce the need for controlled burns that
might otherwise be used. Removing all residues from a harvest sight, how-
ever, will increase the potential for surface runoff, soil loss and nu-
trient loss.
Ecological Effects - Moderate levels of utilization are expected to have
beneficial aquatic effects. In the aquatic ecosystem, less debris will
enter streams, resulting in improved aquatic habitat. In the terrestrial
ecosystem, wildlife habitat and species diversity do not specifically de-
pend upon the presence or absence of logging residues, except for certain
cavity dwelling species. The USFS now observes a policy of leaving a cer-
tain number of dead trees standing for these animals. Complete residue
removal would eliminate edge area and, consequently, reduce species numbers
and diversity.
In the West, aesthetics will be enhanced by partial removal of logging
residues. Logged sites will have a more orderly appearance. Total utili-
zation would further enhance aesthetic values, but provides for the possi-
bility of other environmental injury.
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Complete utilization is expected to have a minor effect on recreational
opportunities, by allowing for easier travel through cutover areas. Human
health will not be significantly affected with residue recovery practices.
Research Needs - With an expected increase in the extraction residue re-
covery, research needs have been identified involving both the extent of
utilization and the expected environmental effects. Consequently, future
research should address the level of utilization of biomass considered op-
timal and evaluate the ecological effects of alternatives in level of util-
ization.
Minimum Size and Quality Extension (4.2)
Increased utilization of forest fiber can also be accomplished by using
the smaller trees removed during thinning practices for stocking control,
using smaller top diameters, and using the whole tree, including roots.
Extensiveness - Use of minimum size and quality extension practices is
especially applicable to the South's pine forest and to a lesser degree,
in the North's forest systems. In the West, use is less significant be-
cause emphasis is primarily on old growth liquidations. Industry that de-
pends strongly on roundwood fiber favors the utilization of smaller ma-
terials. Extensiveness of this practice, minimum size and quality exten-
sion, was estimated to be moderate in 1976 and expected to increase to
important levels by 1985 and major levels by 2010.
Environmental Factors - In terms of wood fiber, silviculture_productivity
increases significantly with minimum size and quality extension utiliza-
tion. Not all forest species can be managed for minimum size, but at least
one third of all southern pine may be managed for this.
Removal of the entire tree biomass results in complete soil baring and in-
creased soil disturbances. Significant soil erosion losses and sediment
loading of receiving waters are expected in some forest areas, especially
in the hilly country of the South. Nutrients will be irretrievably lost
in the nutrient cycle with whole tree utilization. Some soils will require
replacement of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium before successful regen-
eration can occur.
Ecological Effect - Complete utilization will have adverse aquatic and
terrestrial effects. Turbidity increases and the potential for thermal
pollution also increases. Terrestrial systems will have decreased diver-
sity in both vegetation and wildlife species. Soil nutrient cycles may
be severely disrupted in some areas due to extensive material removal.
Aquatic and terrestrial effects will be limited to those regions using
this practice, primarily the South.
Aesthetics are not expected to play an important role with this practice
because this practice is important specifically, in the South where little
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forest land is held in public ownership. Recreation potential will be de-
creased since there will be minimal natural cover on the land. This prac-
tice is not expected to have significant human health effects.
Research Needs - Needs have been identified for research designed to
determine kinds, volumes, and sizes of material to be left on site to
aid in decreasing the pollution effects of extraction.
Species Use Enlargement (4.3)
Forest utilization is expanded under this practice to include tree species
once considered non-commercial, specifically hardwood species. Techno-
logical developments have largely been responsible for the use of a
broader range of species.
Extensiveness - Species use enlargement will be most applicable in the
North and South forest regions, where many hardwood species exist. Ap-
plication in the West will be limited since much of that forest land is
in desirable softwoods.
By 2010, the U.S. will be consuming an estimated 12.2 billion ft3 of pulp
wood compared to 4.4 billion ft3 in 1970. Hardwoods will supply 37 per-
cent of this volume, an increase from 28 percent in 1970. To achieve this
production level by 2010, it will be necessary not only to increase har-
vest of desirable species, but also to use a broader range of species for
harvest. Since hardwood species tend to be small, poor in form and do not
have the desired seasoning characteristics or dimensional stability, their
use for lumber and plywood is not expected to greatly increase.
Environmental Factors - Annual silviculture productivity will increase sig-
nificantly with the harvest of a broader range of tree species. Addi-
tionally, marketing of species that might otherwise be disposed of by
mechanical or chemical means tends to reduce cost for stand improvement
and forest conversion.
The type of harvest and logging methods used will determine the extent of
soil disturbance and consequent soil loss. As with other utilization prac-
tices, total removal of all forest fiber bares the soil and increases the
potential for surface runoff and soil losses. Soil nutrient cycles will
also be disrupted with whole tree utilization. Other harvesting practices
will allow residues to remain, and the resulting soil loss is expected to
be less than for complete utilization.
Ecological Effects - Ecological effects of species use enlargement will
largely depend upon the harvest and logging practices used. Aquatic eco-
systems may experience increased turbidity and possible thermal pollution
with intense utilization of forest fiber. Complete tree removal including
roots results in loss of water retention capacities by the soil. Less in-
tense harvest and utilization practices will cause less soil disturbance
and reduce the potential for adverse aquatic effects.
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The terrestrial ecosystem may experience loss of wildlife habitat and de-
creased species diversity with the elimination or reduction of a tree spec-
ies Recreational opportunities will be adversely affected if complete
utilization of all tree species becomes a common practice. Aesthetic values
are expected to also be adversely affected with this practice due to reduc-
tions in wooded vegetation. Human health is not expected to be affected.
Research Needs - As discussed above, there is a need to determine the
pollution effects of alternative levels of utilization and ecological ef-
fects.
5. Cutting System (5)
Cutting systems employ two basic management practices for forest harvest:
even-aged management and uneven-aged management. Even-aged cutting prac-
tices are clearcutting, shelterwood cutting and seed tree cutting. These
three cutting systems allow for the removal of mature tree stands and the
establishment of new stands, all of a single age class. Single tree and
group cutting are uneven-age management practices. This type of manage-
ment produces stands in which trees of various ages are intermingled.
While the cutting system trend was ranked ninth (out of 10 silviculture
trends) for environmental implications by the Phase I evaluation work-
shop, one subtrend, clearcutting, has become a sensitive and controversial
issue with the public. Thus, clearcutting has been included for detailed
analysis in this Phase II study. Other cutting system subtrends are ex-
cluded from this assessment.
Clearcutting (5.1)
Clearcutting is an even-aged forest reproduction practice in which all
trees are removed in the harvest area. This area may then be regener-
ated by residual reproduction or by natural or artificial methods after
cutting.
Extensiveness - Actual extensiveness of clearcutting in 1976 is not known,
but estimated to be at important levels. In the Douglas fir region, 39,500
acres of old forest growth is harvested by clearcutting. In the South,
clearcutting is expected to increase as a result of shortened rotation
periods, 15 years for some species. By 2010, extensiveness of clearcutting
is expected to reach major levels. However, use of clearcutting may be
restricted on some federal forest lands, and shelterwood cutting substi-
tuted as an even-age management practice.
Reducing clearcut area size and engineering the cut to conform to topo-
graphic features and to be less visible from principal viewing points
are expected to be future management practices with clearcutting.
Environmental Factors - Clearcutting practices demonstrates high potential
for maximizing fiber yield in a number of forest types, and provides the
best opportunity for establishment of new stands.
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Clearcuts have been responsible for large pollutant loadings in the en-
vironment. The potential still exists for significant adverse impacts,
but precautionary measures can reduce these impacts. However, soil loss
will still occur with large bared soil areas. On fragile soils and on
steep terrain, indiscriminate use of clearcutting can cause mass wasting.
Clearcutting can be used to control water yield in the Rocky Mountains with
properly engineered path cuts that trap winter snows. This will cause in-
creased spring runoffs. Water yields are temporarily increased between the
time an area is cut and before vegetation is reestablished to take up
moisture.
Water temperature increases have also occurred with clearcuts. More cur-
rent practices with clearcutting, leave the streams shaded to maintain
temperature stability.
Ecological Effects - Aquatic ecosystem may be adversely affected with in-
creased turbidity and thermal pollution. With use of buffer zones and
careful management, adverse aquatic effects will decrease in intensity
and may be relatively insignificant in some cut areas.
With clearcuts, wildlife habitat, food supplies and travel lanes are dis-
rupted. Wildlife species that inhabited the uncut forest will be dis-
placed; and, with revegetation, a wider diversity of ground and bush-
dwelling species will appear. Deer populations are expected to increase
significantly in some forest cut areas.
Recreational opportunities are adversely affected immediately following
clearcutting. After revegetation, hunting, wildlife viewing, and berry
picking are enhanced.
Aesthetics are also adversely affected with clearcutting and subsequent
logging practices. Removal of harvest residues, careful clearcut site
planning, and other management are expected to reduce aesthetic effects
to some extent. Human health is not expected to be significantly affected
with this practice.
Research Needs - As indicated above, major disruptions can be expected
in the terrestrial systems. Because of this, research is required not
only on the short term effects but also on the long term effects of
clearcutting.
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SECTION III
RESEARCH NEEDS
Throughout this study many types of data and information were identified
and sought through secondary sources in order to complete the desired en-
vironmental assessments. As was expected, the desired research data were
often meager and seldom adequate to quantitatively analyze the environ-
mental effects of a given trend or management practice in either agri-
culture or silviculture. Consequently, and as incorporated in the study's
plan of work, qualitative value judgments of agricultural, silvicultural,
and environmental professionals were obtained and utilized. Future studies
involving the environmental implications of agricultural-silviculture! acti-
vities can be expected to face similar data and information constraints.
As a guide to further data base development involving environmental re-
search, this section outlines the most pressing needs that were identifiable
throughout this study. It should be recognized that many on-going public
and private research programs will contribute to these needs; however, the
diverse conditions that exist throughout agriculture and silviculture are
such that site specific experiments are difficult or impossible to general-
ize about. Caution must be exercised, therefore, in assuming that research
conducted in limited geographic areas will necessarily yield data on en-
vironmental effects valid for other areas and conditions.
Agricultural and silvicultural environmentally-related research needs, as
viewed from the perspective of EPA's overall responsibility, might be cate-
gorized into four research areas as follows:
1. Production Efficiency Research
2. Pollution Measurement Research
3. Pollution Reduction Research
4. Ecological Impact Research
Production efficiency research would develop or assess the technology utilized
to improve production yields and efficiency, including pollution-related im-
pacts. Pollution measurement would determine the actual types and quanti-
ties of pollution generated in various production processes. Pollution re-
duction research would develop or assess alternative methods to reduce the
generation of pollution. And, ecological impact research would quantify
ecological and other environmental impacts. (A fifth area, extensiveness
research, would determine the extent to which pollutant-generating resources,
production practices, or developments are being utilized, but such research
is generally considered outside of EPA's primary responsibility.)
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The following discussion of specific research needs is presented first for
the agriculture sector and then for the silviculture sector. Also, within
each sector, the research needs are identified according to the four research
categories as defined above. These needs reflect the broad range of research
that will be required to comprehensively assess the environmental implica-
tions of trends in agriculture and silviculture. However, other and more'
specific research needs can be readily perceived within the framework shown;
thus, the research needs presented are intended principally as a guide in
research planning. Various institutions, not just EPA, have either an ex-
plicit or an implicit responsibility to foster research in the various desig-
nated categories.
Importantly, one should note that the research need categories are not
mutually exclusive. Such matters as research into the environmental effects
of varying tillage practices will, for instance, also involve research into
their differing nutrient and pesticide requirements and their consequent
environmental effects. When one recognizes the interrelationships that
exist among all the agricultural subsector trend practices and their environ-
mental effects, one recognizes, also, the conceptual impossibility of
definitively ranking on the basis of need, all of the research possibilities
identified in this study. Finally, the listing of research needs is not
exhaustive. The study sought to identify those that offer promise; thus,
in some instances, research needs were not identified in all need categories
for all trend practices.
A. Agriculture Sector Research Needs
Based on this study's findings, the most needed environmentally-related re-
search topics in agriculture are as summarized in Exhibit III-l below. These
research needs are categorized by subsector/trend (see Exhibit rows) within
agriculture and by the research categories (see Exhibit columns) as were
defined above.
The following discussion incorporates not only the trends as have been
assessed in this Phase II document, but also selected additional trends
from the Phase I (Volume I) analysis for which comparable research needs
exist.
Production Efficiency Research Needs
Improved production efficiency is an indirect means of achieving environ-
mental quality production and enhancement. That is, technological and
other developments that increase agricultural production efficiency have
often required lower rates of resource use, e.g., land or fertilizer, in
order to meet specified yield goals. Hence, the environmental effects are
favorable, especially in relative terms in the U.S., where substantially
more pollutants would have been generated if production efficiency im-
provements had not been realized. Such, for instance, is a frequent effect
of the work of the U. S. Department of Agriculture. The Department, as is
66
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Exhibit III-l. Summary of agriculture sector research needs by trend and research category
Page 1
Agriculture
Subsector/Trend
Production Efficiency
Research Needs
Pollution Measurement
Research Needs
Pollution Reduction
Research Needs
Ecological Impact
Research Needs
CROP PRODUCTION SUBSECTOR
Soil and Water Manage-
ment (Runoff and
Erosion Control)
(Conservation
Tillage)
(Wind Erosion
Control)
(Improved Water
Application)
(Improved Seeds
and Plants)
(Using Soil-Plant
Analysis)
Develop more efficient
farm implements.
Determine optimum use of
fertilizers and pesticides
with narrow rows.
Develop alternatives to the
use of toxic pesticides,
e.g., paraquat.
Determine optimum fertili-
zer and pesticide use
under no-till and reduced
till practices.
Determine the optimum
amount of residue to be
left on the soil under
conservation tillage.
Determine the feasibility
of diverting return flows
for other productive uses,
e.g., wildlife preserves.
Investigate the use of
effluents in sprinkler
irrigation.
Improve irrigation systems
and scheduling.
Develop more resistant
seeds and plants to in-
clude weather, salt, in-
sect, and neamtode.
Develop seeds and plants
to increase crop yields.
Develop more efficient
techniques in soil plant
analysis to enhance pro-
ductivity.
Determine losses from con-
trol measures under vary-
ing conditions; e.g., soil
and application rates.
Determine pesticide losses
under reduced tillage.
Determine wind erosion
losses under strip-crop-
ping barrier rows and
free wind breaks.
Determine quality of re-
turn flows under varying
conditions.
Determine effectiveness
of contouring and other
soil erosion measures.
Investigate the feasibil-
ity of producing additional
crops In narrow rows.
Determine effectlvenebi of
alternative reduced tillage
methods in reducing pollu-
tant losses, e.g., nutri-
ents, pesticides, sediment.
Develop more efficient
systemsin wind erosion
control.
Determine the feasibility
of water renovation through
filtering and desalting.
Determine practicable al-
ternatives for treatment
and disposal of tall water.
Develop seeds and plants
resistant to pests re-
quiring chemical treat-
ment.
Determine the effects of
pesticides on human health.
Determine the optimum main-
tenance management of ter-
races and grass waterways
for wildlife habitat.
Determine ecological effects
of Increased pesticide use
under conservation tillage.
Determine effects of salinity
on human health and animal
populations.
Determine effects of Irriga-
tion practices on ground
water depletion.
Include environmental
assessments as a part of
research undertaken in
seeds ana plants improve-
ment.
Evaluate ecological effects
associated with the use of
soil-plant analysis.
Continued . . .
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Exhibit. III-l (Continued)
Page 2
Agriculture
Subsector/Trend
Production Efficiency
Research Needs
Pollution Measurement
Re;earch Needs
Pollution Reduction
Research Needs
Ecological Impact
Research Needs
en
CD
CROP PRODUCTION SUB-
SECTOR (Con'd)
Nutrient Manage-
ment (Methods of
Nutrient Applica-
tion)
(Development of Im-
proved Fertilizers)
(Development of
Nitrogen-Fixation
Sources)
Pesticide Manage-
ment (Pesticide
Application
Methods)
(Development of New
Biological and
Chemical Pesticides)
(Scouting and In-
tegrated Controls)
Develop more effective
methods of nutrient
application.
Develop more efficient
fertilizers.
Develop sources, both
legumes and non-1egumest
for biological nitrogen-
fixation.
Develop more efficient
means of pesticide appli-
cation including aerial
application and dual
application of fertili-
zers and pesticides.
Develop more effective
chemical and biological
pesticides.
Develop the effective use
of pred'.tors and para-
sites for biological
pest control.
Develop more effective In-
tegrated control systems.
Develop effective surface
and remote sensing scouting
programs to enhance pro-
duction.
Compare nutrient losses
under varying methods of
application.
Determine extent of ni-
trate leaching from
nitrogen-fixation
sources.
Determine extent of pes-
ticide loss In aerial
application.
Develop fertilizers designed
to reduce pollution effect,
e.g., micro-encapsulation.
Develop means of reducing
drift In aerial applica-
tion.
Develop biodegradable
pesticides.
Develop Integrated control
systems designed to reduce
chemical use.
Determine environmental Im-
plication of developments
in application techniques as
they are developed.
Determine long term effects
of leaching of other ions
with nitrogen and movement
of Ions down into the soil
profile.
Determine regional implica-
tions of fall application.
Assess differences 1n eco-
logical effects of alter-
native methods of pesticide
application.
Determine ecological effects
of newly developed pes-
ticides, including effects
of agents on non-target
organisms and their effects
after the prey has been
eradicated.
Include ecological assess-
ments as part of ongoing
research Involving Integrated
system.
Continued . . .
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ExhlMt III-l (Continued)
Page 3
Agriculture
Subsector/Trend
Production Efficiency
Research Needs
Pollution Measurement
itesearch Needs
Pollution Reduction
Research Needs
Ecological Impact
Research Needs
CTi
FEEDLOT PRODUCTION
SUBSECTOR'
Residual Disposal
Management
Improving Feed
Efficiency
RANGE AND PASTURE
MANAGEMENT SUB-
SECTOR
Grazing Management
Increase Forage
Quality and
Quantity
Range and Pasture
Renovation
Determine economic feas-
ibility of utilizing feed-
lot waste in crop pro-
duction.
Assess the efficiency and
feasibility of recycling
wastes in feeding rations.
Develop means of .enhancing1
the nutritive value of
roughage and other fiber
content of feed.
Develop more effective
means of utilizing non-
conventional feedstuff
and animal wastes in
feeding.
Develop more effective
grazing systems utilizing
innovations such as com-
plementary forage seedlngs.
Develop means of increas-
ing the quality and
quantity of forage.
Develop more efficient
renovation systems.
Determine nutrient losses
resulting from application
of manure at disposal rates.
Determine nutrient losses
from newly developed feed
rations.
Evaluate ration rotation
as a means of reducing the
potential build-up of copper,
arsenic, and sodium derived
from feed rations.
Determine nutrient and
sediment losses under the
various specialized systems.
Determine pollution effects
of newly developed renova-
tion systems.
Determine effects of high
sodium content In rations
on soil defloculation.
Determine long term effects
of nitrates and other nu-
trients 1n groundwater.
Determine ecological effects
of complementary forage
seedings.
Determine ecological effects
of Introducing new species
into ranges.
Determine long term ecolog-
ical effects of the various
renovation systems(chemical,
mechanical, and prescribed
burning).
-------
generally recognized, is a principal source of production efficiency im-
provements for agriculture, and a consequence of those improvements is
often improved environmental effects. Too, agribusiness conducts much
independent research and, consequently, fosters environmental beneficial
production efficiency improvements.
Even though production efficiency improvements generally have only indirect
environmental implications and may not, therefore, be of primary concern to
EPA, the future environment of the nation will be strongly influenced by
such improvements. As a minimum within a comprehensive research frame-
work, the monitoring of emerging and prospective production efficiency
improvements is a vital research task.
Crop Production - Soil and Hater Management. As is first shown under the
production efficiency research needs column in Exhibit III-l, several re-
search topics are classified primarily as soil and water management related.
For example, the use of narrow rows, an increasing trend practice, is be-
lieved beneficial in stabilizing the soil, and, in many cases, this practice
improves production efficiency per unit of land cultivated without corre-
sponding increases in fertilizer use. Thus, either the same output may be
produced with less environmental pollution, or more likely, greater output
can be obtained without a significant change in associated environmental ef-
fects. The production efficiency aspects of the subtrend need to be more
fully assessed. More specific research is required in the determination of
the optimal rates of application of pesticides and fertilizers. Also, the
adaptibility of narrow rows in the production of crops other than corn and
soybeans needs to be more fully investigated.
Within the crop production subsector, improved water applications result in
production efficiencies which should be fostered not only because of ef-
ficiency gains, but because of their favorable environmental implications.
Improved methods of water application, improved scheduling procedures, and
the use of new sources of water, e.g., waste water effluent, are specific
areas needing research.
In the past, much research has been focused on the development of higher
yielding crop seeds and plants. While this research should be continued,
increased genetic research is also warranted to improve the resistance of
plants to factors such as weather, insects and diseases. Such developments
will potentially reduce future potential pesticide pollution problems.
Crop Production - Nutrient Management. Further research related to nutrient
management will likely result in production efficiency improvements and an
aggregate beneficial environmental effect. In particular, developments can
be expected involving the form in which fertilizer is applied, the timing
and frequency of application, and the type of applications used. In the
past, fertilizer technology has contributed significantly to the increasing
crop yields experienced in U.S. agriculture. The rising costs in fertilizer
production have brought into focus the necessity for continued research in
this area. Specifically, research needs to be undertaken to develop more
efficient means of application and more effective forms, such as micro-
encapsulation. Closely related to the needs involving timing and frequency
70
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of application is the need for the development of more effective means of
conducting soil-plant analysis. Only a minor portion of the total crop
acreage is currently covered by soil-piant analysis. Improved techniques,
plus a greater emphasis on implementation of such techniques by the research
and agribusiness community, would stimulate the needed expansion in the ac-
reage covered.
Crop Production - Pesticide Management. Pest management technology has been
one of the major determinants of the high productivity of U.S. agriculture
with toxic chemicals providing the basis for contemporary practices. Public
concern about these chemicals has led to more stringent regulations and, in
some cases, a prohibition of specific chemicals. These restrictions have re-
sulted in a greater reliance on certain compounds and, also, the substitution
of less effective alternatives. Consequently, the need for additional re-
search is readily apparent. The breadth of recent and ongoing research is
reflected in the subtrends reviewed in this study. Emerging chemical develop-
ments include microencapsulated systems, surfactants and biodegradable pesti-
cides. In the biological field, the subtrends covered developments in juve-
nile hormones, pheromones, sterile males, and predators. Although consider-
able progress has been made in such research, most of these remain largely in
the experimental stage with recognized research requirements. The use of
predators and parasites in biological pest control shows a great deal of
promise; however, additional research is needed before these controls can
be used on a large scale. Research is needed to identify and develop other
biological and chemical agents which will provide more effective control of
pests. Furthermore, increased research is needed to develop integrated pest
management controls, i.e., chemical, biological and mechanical combinations
to meet specific pest problems.
Too frequently pesticides have been applied as a matter of prevention of
potential threats, thus contributing to a high level of use. More efficient
use depends on identification of real threats. Consequently, research needs
to be accelerated in the area of sensing in order to develop effective sur-
face and remote-sensing scouting programs for the detection of pest problems.
Pest management research is needed in conjunction with other crop management
trends, namely, trends in reduced till and no-till practices which are ex-
pected to be utilized substantially more in the future. Because of improved
water conservation and reduced runoff and erosion, increased production ef-
ficiency has occurred. On the negative side, however, greater weed and in-
sect problems generally occur; thus, greater chemical pesticide use and its
consequent potential pesticide residue problems are common. This particular
trend should be monitored for its production efficiency implications, and
it should be more carefully researched in terms of its direct pesticide use
implications.
Feedlot Production. Production efficiency improvements in livestock feeding
have both direct and indirect environmental benefits. First, on a per pound
of gain basis, less direct wastes are generated, i.e., a higher percentage of
the feeding ration is converted to useable end products. Second, because
less grain and roughage are needed to finish feedlot livestock to a speci-
fied grade, less feed need be produced to obtain a given total yield; thus,
71
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an indirect and favorable relative environmental effect will result. Over
time, feeding efficiency improvements, e.g., in the order of 15 to 20% per
pound of gain, could have a significantly large macro-level effect on the
nation's environment. Hence, additional research to further enhance feeding
efficiency improvements is warranted.
Pollution Measurement Research Needs
An initial step in the assessment of the environmental implications of agri-
cultural trends was the identification of major pollutants generated by
various practices and developments. As pointed out above, the research data
required for an effective quantitative analysis was, in most cases, inade-
quate. Although extensive research has been done in the identification and
measurement of pollution from non-point sources, it has generally been oriented
towards specific pollutants under controlled run-off conditions. Thus, be-
cause the pollution effects caused by specific practices have not been docu-
mented to the extent that realistic future projections of effects can be made,
the environmental impacts of expected changes in practices cannot be ac-
curately determined on a quantitative basis.
However, models have been and are being developed with the objective of
simulating pollution levels in water basins under varying production-
related conditions. Most often, such models seek to estimate pollutant
load changes into streams as a function of management practices. Also,
some models seek to estimate instream water quality conditions given alter-
native management practices. These models have usually been inadequately
developed to complete either regional or national assessments, and further
pollution measurement research of this type is needed to obtain useful esti-
mates of the levels of non-point sources of pollution. Additionally, the
simulation models should be developed to incorporate and, yet, distinguish
each of the subsectors of agriculture so that the relative environmental
significance of each can be more accurately determined and assessed.
Crop Production - Soil and Water Management. Trends in soil and water manage-
ment practices indicate that significant environmental effects will likely
occur. For example, substantial increases in no-till and reduced-till cul-
ture practices are expected. Such practices, predicted to reduce runoff
will, also, increase pesticide use to control weeds, insects and diseases.
Improved pollution measurement research is, then, needed to determine the
nutrient and chemical losses for alternative tillage practices and soil
conditions. The net environmental effects of reduced-tillage practices
were judged to be beneficial by this study's workshop, yet improved pollu-
tion measurement is needed to verify this judgement.
Within major irrigated crop production regions, a major and growing problem
is the increasing salinity of irrigation return flows. Better measurements
of the existing pollution effects of these return flows are needed, and,
perhaps more critically, the future environmental effects of high salinity
return flows should be predicted as a guide to the severity of their future
potential effects.
72
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Crop Production - Nutrient Management. In nutrient management, numerous de-
velopments in application methods and fertilizer formulations have occurred
in the past and are expected to continue in the future. Measurement tech-
niques need to be designed to measure the nutrient losses expected from each
of these developments. This would facilitate the identification of feasible
alternatives for use in pollution control.
Range and Pasture Management and Feedlot Production. Numerous studies have
been conducted regarding pollution associated with the range and pasture
management and the feedlot production subsectors. However, there is an
inadequate quantitative basis on which estimates of this pollution can be
made for the various practices and variety of conditions. Consequently, the
need for improved pollution measurement is apparent in these two subsectors.
Pollution Reduction Research Needs
A major step in this study's assessment of trends was its identification of
current and potential practices which impinge upon environmental concerns.
One of the objectives of this step was to assist EPA in its efforts to
identify feasible technologies for the prevention and control of adverse
environmental effects. In this study, many of the trends assessed were
found to have both a pollution reduction effect and an improved production
efficiency effect (i.e., runoff and erosion control practices, conservation
tillage, and improved nutrient application). Continued research to develop
similar dual-benefit practices is desired. In the future, however, stringent
pollution reduction practices may be required without associated production
efficiency benefits. Such practices, although not among the leading trends
assessed, should be realistically included in research programs.
Crop Production - Soil and Water Management. Soil management practices such
as contouring, narrow-row cropping, and reduced-till or no-till cultural
practices for varied crops should be researched to indicate their potential
and relative levels of nutrient, chemical, and sediment run-off and subse-
quent environmental effects. Research needs are important, also, in water
management. Practicable alternatives for the treatment and disposal of
irrigation return-flow, water need to be identified. With the increasingly
apparent potential for the depletion of ground water in the West, research
is needed to measure the impact of irrigation on depletion levels and to
assess the beneficial effects on water renovation of filtering and de-
salting techniques.
Crop Production - Nutrient Management. Of principal consideration in
nutrient management trend effects should be extended research into the
feasibility of developing fertilizers that are designed to reduce pollu-
tion effects. More attention should be given to developing the qualita-
tive (vs. quantitative) attributes of nutrients as their aggregate environ-
mental effects become more serious.
Crop Production - Pesticide Management. Leading research needs directed
toward the reduction of pesticide pollution include efforts to improve
73
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aerial application techniques and formlations "non-drift" to develop
biodegradable pesticides, and to design integrated control systems to
reduce chemical use.
Feedlot Production - Residual Disposal Management. Research should be
directed toward reducing the concentrations of copper, arsenic, and sodium
stemming from feedlot rations since the use of feedlot manure in land ap-
plications results in the environmentally adverse runoff of such chemicals.
Ecological Impact Research Needs
Ideally, agriculture's ecological impacts should be assessed holistically
with detailed quantitative estimates made regarding such receptor charac-
teristics as assimilative capacities, organisms present, and end-uses.
The lack of data and understanding of the relationships among agricultural
practices precludes such a quantitative evaluation; consequently, this
study's assessment was based largely on professional judgements focusing
on each individual trend. While the ultimate ecological impact of the
agricultural production system is the result of the effects of the accumu-
lation of practices, many of the trends can be examined relatively inde-
pendent of other practices.
Crop Production - Soil and Water Management. A number of research needs
were identified in soil and water management. The most apparent involve
the determination of the ecological effects of the increased pesticide use
attendant upon the expanding utilization of no-till and reduced tillage.
While run-off nutrient loss will be significantly reduced under these prac-
tices, pesticide use is expected to be increased substantially. The iden-
tification of the effects of this increase is one of the most pressing needs
in the agriculture sector. Other needs in soil and water management con-
cern the determination of the effects of maintenance management of ter-
races and grass waterways for wildlife habitat and of the effects of
salinity on human health (in irrigated regions) and animal populations.
Crop Production - Nutrient Management. Ecological effect research is
needed to determine the long-term effects of leaching of nitrogen with
other ions into the soil profile. New fertilizer technology is expected
to be developed, particularly in formulations, e.g., microencapsulation
and biological inhibitors of nutrification, and their effects should be
assessed.
Crop Production - Pesticide Management. Research should continue on the
effects of pesticides on human health, especially that investigating such
effects when pesticides are properly used. As new pesticides are de-
veloped, ecological effect research should assess their use, and attention
should be directed toward the effects of agents on non-target organisms,
particularly those involving predators and parasites.
Feedlot Production - Residual Disposal Management. Ecological effects re-
search should determine the results of the land application of feedlot
wastes. Of most need are documentations of the effects of high sodium
deflocculation and of the long-term effects of nitrate leaching.
74
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Range and Pasture Management. Research needs are most apparent in two par-
ticular areas: the ecological effects of chemicals used for land renova-
tion and the effects consequent to the introduction of new forage species.
B. Silviculture Sector Research Needs
Exhibit III-2 presents the research needs most germane to silviculture.
These needs are categorized as were those for this study's agriculture
sector.
Production Efficiency Research Needs
Silviculture production efficiency has resulted from a greater use of modern
equipment, a better utilization of timber, more intensive management, and
improved technology in timber growing. These developments, many having both
beneficial and adverse environmental effects have promoted a better balance
between timber production and environmental protection. However, since much
of the technology associated with the use of modern equipment has worked to
the detriment of the environment, EPA should initiate research which would
monitor the environmental effects of production efficiency improvements.
(This study recognizes, of course, the responsibility of the U.S. Forest
Service in this area.)
Research needs related to increased production efficiency have been identi-
fied in three management areas: harvest management, stand control and
damage control.
Harvest Management. Silviculture productivity has been improved through an
increasing utilization of the total biomass, principally in the South where
the utilization of roots, branches, and foliage from the younger timber,
relatively free of defects, has been profitable. Research should determine
the-optimum level of such utilization which would reflect both its long-
term economic benefit and its associated environmental damages.
Stand Control Management. Silviculture production utilizes the early re-
establishment of timber species, and the extensive use of mechanical equip-
ment during site preparation, especially in the South, to further such
reestablishment. Prompt reestablishment is desirable, but some techniques
have frequently proved to be environmentally disruptive. Research should
determine the optimal balance between the requirements of species regen-
eration and environmental need.
Damage Control Management. A significant need for ecological effects re-
search within the damage control management area recognizes the potential
impact consequent to uncontrolled fires. A need is apparent to develop
effective means of identifying fire danger, of predicting fire behavior,
and of determining corrective actions which will have the least disruptive
ecological effects.
75
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Exhibit III-2. Summary of silviculture lector research needs by trend and research category
Silviculture
anagMont Area/Trend
HARVEST MANAGEMENT
Access
Production Efficiency
Research Needs
Pollution Measurement
Research Needs
Pollution Reduction
Research Needs
Determine minimum road
Ecological Impact
Research Needs
Determine relative effects of
standards (cut, fill, bed
width, ballast) compatible
with road use needs.
Develop equipment designed
to minimize soil disturbance.
minimum road standards versus
those in practice today.
Determine effects on site quality
of roads abandoned to revert to
forest after use.
Extraction
Determine needs by region of
equipment innovations that
can accomplish harvest at
minimum environmental costs
consistent with economic
considerations.
Determine methods of reducing
pollution (soil disturbance,
detachment, and transport)
for new logging equipment
CTi
Utilization Determine optimum level of
utilization of biomass 1n
commercial forests and
means of projecting en-
vironmental effects under
varying cutting levels.
Determine sedineit load-
ings in streeitr from
various levels of bio-
mass utilization.
Determine kinds, volumes, and
sizes of material that should
be left on site to aid in con-
trolling pollution resulting
from varying levels of utili-
zation.
Determine effects of alternatives
in level of utilization of biomass
on the aquatic and terrestrial
systems.
Determine effects of Increasing
utilization on nutrients 1n the
ecosystem.
STAND CONTROL
Site Preparation
Determine minimum amount
of site preparation re-
quired to meet require-
ments for establishing
regeneration.
Determine level of
pesticide residues In
media from chemical
treatments in site
preparation.
Determine method or combina-
tion of methods most effi-
cient or suitable for en-
vironmental conditions.
Determine the extent of re-
duction of environmental
damages possible by alter-
native methods or combination
of methods.
Determine which equipment
results In least pollution
effect and which causes the
most.
Determine the ecological effects
of herbicides used 1n site prepa-
ration; i.e., reaction of soil
biomass to chemicals, volatiza-
tion of chemicals in atmosphere.
Determine long term ecological
effects of extensive drainage
and phosphate loadings 1n pre-
paring swamps for planting pine
in Southeast.
DAMAGE CONTROL
Fire Control
Develop more effective
means of identifying
fire danger and deter-
mining fire behavior.
CUTTING SYSTEMS
Clear Cutting
Evaluate long term effects of
clear cutting effects on ter-
restrial systems.
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Pollution Measurement Research Needs
n nuren osses w vary y erng eves o
have correspondingly differing environmental effects
ct on -
n w ave corresponingly differing environmental ef
potential effect on the eco-system of stream sediment loading
search necessar to m
oena eect on the eco-system of stream sediment loading m
search necessary to measure such loading for the various levels
utilization.
biomass
Stand Control Management. Chemical site preparation treatment may be pre-
ferred at times to mechanical treatment because it offers less soil dis-
turbance, a minimum alteration of surface water mechanics, and much less
disruption of the nutrient cycles. Some chemicals are usually applied only
once in a 30 to 100 year rotation, pesticide effects are generally expected
to be minimal; however, to determine the long-term effects of pesticide
applications, research should determine the level of pesticide residues in
the media resulting from chemical treatment associated with site preparation.
Pollution Reduction Research Needs
A primary concern of EPA is the identification of economically feasible and
socially acceptable alternatives in silviculture which will help prevent and
control adverse environmental effects. Research in this area is very closely
related to that of production efficiency, since, in many cases, reductions
in pollution result directly from increases in efficiency. Specific needs
in this category have been identified in two silvicultural management areas.
Harvest Management. Environmental effects research needs are apparent for
both extraction and utilization practices. Innovations in extracting equip-
ment technology have frequently been developed at the expense of the environ-
ment; consequently, research is needed to design equipment, particularly
logging equipment, that will minimize environmental damages. Such research
should address regional requirements since these may vary substantially among
regions. Research is needed, also, to determine the optimum levels of ma-
terials utilization (i.e., kinds, volumes, and sizes) in order to minimize
the adverse environmental effects of such utilization practices. An addi-
tional research need should focus on developing minimum access road standards
reflective of industry needs and environmental requirements.
Stand Control Management. Research is needed to ascertain which of the
methods or combination of methods — mechanical, chemical or burning —
causes the least short-term and long-term environmental damages. Each
method has both advantages and disadvantages in economic efficiency and
environmental effects. The extent of damages associated with each of the
alternatives should also be determined to facilitate the development of
controls to reduce the pollution effects of site preparation. Such re-
search should determine the equipment that would have the least environ-
mental impact.
77
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Ecological Impact Research Needs
An ecological assessment of trends in silviculture was an important objec-
tive of the study and was largely based on research literature. On the
whole, the literature did reflect a broad and effective coverage of silvi-
culture's ecological effects. However, several research needs were apparent,
Harvest Management. Ecological impact research is needed regarding both
access and utilization practices. As discussed above, road standards need
to be modified to reduce associated adverse effects and research should be
conducted to determine their ecological effects. The increasing trend
towards greater utilization of the total biomass reflects significant im-
provement in production efficiency (primarily in the East); however, the
effects of sedimentation, turbidity, and thermal pollution resulting from
these practices are largely unknown. Research should, then, address the
ecological effects of utilization practices and should examine their ef-
fects under different levels of intensity. An additional and important re-
search need is one that would determine the ecological effects consequent
to industry's abandonment of forest access roads in harvested areas. Spec-
ifically, research should determine the characteristic of the subsequent
erosion and its ecological effect.
Stand Control Management. Two site preparations research needs were iden-
tified. As indicated previously, the levels of pesticide residues re-
sulting from chemical treatment are not widely known. As these levels be-
come established, research should continue on their ecological effects and
should include an examination of the reaction of the soil biomass to chem-
icals and of the volitalization of chemicals in the atmosphere. Secondly,
research is needed to determine the long-term effects of extensive drainage
and phosphate loadings, resulting from the preparation of wetlands for
tree planting, e.g., for planting pine forests in the Southeast.
Cutting Systems Management. Ecological effects research is needed to
determine both the short and long-term effects of clear cutting systems
and selective cutting systems. A belief of this study's silviculture-
panel was that important differences exist among and within regions in
terms of soil types, topography, climatic conditions, type of timber,
and other factors which affect the optimal cutting system for a given
location. Both short and long-term ecological effects need to be assessed
since logging and reforestation practices will differ for each type of
cutting system.
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SECTION IV
POLICY ISSUES
One objective of this study was to identify policy issues associated with
the environmental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture.
This section identifies those policy issues germane to the trends and sub-
trends as presented in both Phase I (Volume I) and Phase II of this study.
These policy issues are the Contractor's assessment of prospective issues;
they do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency (EPA). The specific policy alternatives described are only
suggestive of options which might be implemented to forward policy goals.
EPA has broad authority to establish controls for nonpoint sources (NPS) of
pollution in both agriculture and silviculture. For example, Section 208
of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act. (P.L. 92-500) requires that
state and local regulatory and other programs be developed to control NPS
water pollution. Plans developed pursuant to Section 208 must set forth
procedures and methods to control, to the extent feasible, the nonpoint
sources of pollution. Furthermore, Section 208 programs are to be imple-
mented in concert with Section 201(c) which further requires that, to the
extent practicable, waste treatment management shall provide control or
treatment of all point and nonpoint pollutants.
Within such a legal basis (and others, i.e., the National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System and the irrigated return flows regulations) for estab-
lishing regulatory and other programs, it is pertinent to consider—given an
understanding of trends and probable developments in agriculture and silvi-
culture—an array of potential controls which may emerge in view of pending
legislative requirements to EPA regarding effective NPS pollution control.
Generally speaking, agriculture's and silviculture's nonpoint sources of
pollution are subject to
(1) the control or treatment of wastes generated by production
systems,
(2) the control of polluting inputs (including land), and
(3) the control of management practices to reduce pollutants
generated.
Policy issues arise, then, as a direct consequence of considering public
(vs. private) measures to influence any or all of these control approaches.
Relevant policy issues are, that is, inherent in these fundamental ques-
tions: "What control or treatment of wastes should be imposed on agri-
culture and silviculture production systems?" "What controls should be
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placed on the use of polluting inputs, including land?" "What controls
should be placed on the utilization of management practices?"
Many policy-related instruments may implement an NPS control plan: for
example, Regulation, Education, Economic Incentives, and Public Invest-
ments. However, this study's analysis seeks not to identify specific
implementation alternatives; rather, the study identifies only the policy
areas in which issues may emerge in agriculture and silviculture as a re-
sult of the environmental implications analyzed in this study. Further
analyses are needed in order to determine whether effective and practica-
ble policy instruments could be developed and implemented.
A. Agriculture Sector Policy Issues
Within the agriculture sector, as with other nonpoint sources of pollution,
it is difficult to maintain effective, practicable controls over wastes from
disperse production locations; consequently, relatively more attention has
been given either to the control of polluting inputs or to the control of
management practices to reduce pollutants. This study, also, focuses atten-
tion on policy issues associated with the latter two forms of control.
Exhibit IV-1 summarizes the agricultural subsectors1 (Exhibit column 1) po-
tential policy issues (Exhibit rows) as categorized by types of control
(Exhibit columns 3, 4, 5). This summary pertains explicitly to the poten-
tial controls which are directly linked to the major environmentally-related
trends of this study—either Phase I or Phase II. Additional policy issues
outside of the scope of this study are not assessed even though such policies
may have consequential environmental implications. For instance, above-
normal export demand, though not within the scope of this study, can be a
consequential determinant of the impact of production systems. An unusually
high and prolonged export demand can result in a dramatic increase in land,
nutrient, and pesticide use great enough to cause measurable effects on the
environment. A definitive survey of policy issues would, of course, con-
sider such relationships.
The following descriptions of policy issues, as outlined in Exhibit IV-1,
contain both a brief summary of pollution problems inherent in particular
subsectors of agriculture and an explanation of their prospective policy-
related NPS control issues/problems. The policy issues are categorized by
(1) control of wastes, (2) control of inputs, and (3) control of management
practices.
Crop Production Subsector - Soil and Water Management
Water runoff and its associated soil erosion are the main contributors to
agriculture's NPS pollution. Soil is transported by the runoff and is it-
self (as sediment) a pollutant causing turbidity and deposition problems
in water channels and receptors. Additionally, such sediment is a carrier
of attached pollutants: nutrients (especially phosphates), pesticides,
and soil minerals. Soluble materials, such as nutrients (especially
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Exhibit IV-1. Summary of agriculture sector oolicy issues by management function and basic policy area
Agriculture Subsector/
Management Function
Basic Policy Area
Control of Wastes
Control of Inputs
Control of Management
Practices
Crop Production Subsector
Soil and water management
Nutrient management
A. AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Sediment, salinity, nu-
trients, pesticide res-
idues, crop residues
Nutrients
Land use, water resource
use
Fertilizer resource use;
development of improved
fertilizer; development
biological nitrogen-
fixation sources
Runoff and erosion control;
conservation tillage; im-
proved water application;
wind erosion control; crop
sequencing
Soil-plant analysis; methods
of nutrient application;
other
co
Pesticide management
Pesticide residues
Pesticide resource use;
development of new bio-
logical and chemical
pesticides; improvement
of seeds and plants
Scouting and integrated con-
trols; improvement of pes-
ticide application methods
and timing; other
Feedlot Production Subsector \j
Residual disposal management
(off-site)
Range and Pasture Management Subsector jl/
Grazing management
Renovations and improvements
Organic material,
nitrates, micro-
organisms
Sediment, nutrients,
organic material,
microorganisms
Sediment, nutrients,
pesticides
Land use, off-site dis-
posal limitations, feed-
lot size
Land use
Land use, fertilizer and
pesticide resource use,
equipment use, controlled
fire use
Alternative residual dis-
posal ; feedlot size
Grazing practices and stock-
ing rates
Range and pasture renova-
tion; range and pasture im-
provements; using increased
resources; other
I/ Within the feedlot and range and pasture subsectors, management areas are not all inclusive. Only the most environmentally significant
areas, and with feedlot production, only management areas directly related to non-point source control are considered.
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nitrates), pesticides, and saline minerals, and suspended materials, such
as crop residues, are also transported in water runoff. The control of run-
off and erosion is, therefore, perhaps the most critical environmental prob-
lem in the agriculture production sector.
Control of Wastes. The direct control or treatment of such residuals assoc-
iated with runoff and erosion have usually been regarded as infeasible be-
cause of the wide dispersion of agriculture's discharge locations. In some
instances, however, such as with irrigation return flows, collector channels
have been established and waste residuals have been considered as point
sources subject to EPA point source controls. Perhaps, in other special
cases, drainage conditions exist such that other collector systems could
also be devised to consolidate agricultural waste flows—systems which might
be treated as point sources subject to regulation. Generally, however, pub-
lic involvement would be required both with structures planning and develop-
ment and with treatment processes.
Control of Inputs. Soil and water management implies, specifically, the
control of either land use or water resource use. That is, for example,
lands with known runoff or erosion problems, such as land with steep slopes,
highly erodable soil structure or flood site locations may be restrained
in terms of crop use or cultivation practices. Where such conditions and
their attendant problems are identifiable, national land use regulations
may be considered feasible policy issues as a means of lessening the overall
detrimental effects of using such marginally advantageous sites. Water re-
source use, especially in irrigated crop production, may also be controlled.
A policy issue germane to water resource use can be a reduced subsidization
of irrigation, a reduction which would, by increasing the cost of irrigation,
result in the more intensified and judicious management and use of water re-
sources.
Control of Management Practices. In general, many current and prospective
agricultural practices are directed primarily toward improved soil and water
management. A group of specific runoff and erosion control practices such
as contour farming, terracing, grass waterway construction, and narrow row
cultivation are important to controlling runoff, reducing erosion, and
lessening the detrimental effects of the associated pollutants. Conceivably,
more can be done to foster the use of runoff and erosion control practices.
Additionally, other trends and developments that were assessed in this
study are primarily associated with improved soil and water management.
Conservation tillage methods, such as reduced tillage and no-till, show
a high potential for reducing erosion and conserving water—thereby lower-
ing pollutant loadings. Unfortunately, some offsetting factors are that
more pest problems occur and less reliable yields are obtained. The use
of more pesticides is common, and, hence, an increased pollution potential
exists. On balance, the optimum conservation tillage practice for a given
farming situation remains unclear at this time. More research with this
method of soil and water management is clearly needed before specific
policies are adopted.
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Water application methods in irrigated crop production may also be developed
further to improve the associated environmental effects. Already, return
flows of irrigation tailwaters are being reduced, recycled and/or treated
as point sources. However, salinity build-up in the soils is a major prob-
lem in some areas, and heavy irrigation rates to leach salts from the soil
are essential to maintain crop productivity. Again, counter-balancing ef-
fects on either the water resource or the soil resource exist, and thus,
an optimum management practice cannot be uniformly given. Nonetheless,
broad policies to promote effective management practices in water applica-
tion, in particular, and in soil and water management, in general, are
relevant. Such policies must recognize interactions among environmental
media, however.
Crop Production Subsector - Nutrient Management
Nutrient losses from agricultural activities into surface water and ground-
water are a major environmental concern due primarily to eutrophication ef-
fects, and, also, to toxicological impacts in some cases, e.g., nitrates in
groundwater. In the future, fertilizer use is expected to increase sub-
stantially in order to achieve projected crop production; and, control of
residual nutrients into water receptors will likely continue as a major
problem.
Control of Wastes. Runoff treatment to reduce nutrient levels is not
generally regarded as feasible. Even in special cases where runoff can
be collected, costly treatment facilities, probably publically subsidized,
would be needed; hence, it appears most practical to consider other control
policies.
Control of Inputs. A more accessible means of nutrient runoff control is
to control fertilizer resource use. Some type of restriction or condition
could be placed on fertilizer use in various farming situations, e.g., re-
stricted per acre fertilizer rates under given conditions; however, such
policies should carefully consider the economic and environmental trade-
offs because indiscriminate fertilizer-use control may limit desired growth.
For example, restrictions on fertilizer use may reduce crop production per
acre, increase production costs, cause a more extensive (vs. intensive)
agricultural production, and require high administrative and enforcement
costs. On the environmental side, nutrient levels in surface and ground-
water may be reduced (unless significantly more extended production occurs),
although the environmental impacts of such reductions in nutrients cannot
be accurately estimated. Other forms of control in fertilizer use might
include improved formulations, e.g., use of fertilizers that contain nitrate
inhibitors or controlled release chemicals. On balance, great care must be
exercised in any policy to control the use of nutrients because alternative
production-paths may result in equally serious environmental problems.
Control of Management Practices. This third type of general policy alter-
native has various options for reducing nutrient loss. For example, best
management practices could be developed to combine such factors as timing,
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placement, form, number and application method (as is now being developed
in general through EPA's BMP system planning). Such practices would gener-
ally be directed toward the most efficient crop utilization, although this
objective is not inconsistent with improving nutrient losses since current
practices often involve heavy, single fertilizer applications primarily for
operator-ease. Such applications may be subject to greater nutrient loss
than would be multiple applications of lesser amounts per application.
Another example of a management practice control option would be the fos-
tering of soil-plant analysis to enable the farm operator to more precisely
determine the nutrient requirements of his growing crops. This practice
would better balance crop needs and reduce excessive fertilizer applications
where applicable. In some cases fertilizer rates may actually need to be
increased, but, as outlined above, additions of fertilizer would be dis-
persed in time, and the nutrients applied would presumably be more readily
available for uptake during the growing period with less runoff potential
during a given time interval.
Emerging developments such as biological nitrogen-fixation sources and im-
proved fertilizer formulations should continue to be monitored as poten-
tial means of controlling fertilizer resource use and/or best management
practices. In the short-term, however, effective nutrient management will
mostly involve careful execution of selected practices; the execution of a
practice may indeed be as important environmentally as the selection of
the practice itself.
Crop Production Subsector - Pesticide Management
Pesticide residues are widespread in the environment, stemming largely from
agriculture's use of thse chemicals to maintain and improve crop production
and quality. These residues are found in the air, soil, water supplies,
and the human food chain, and have been responsible for adverse effects on
non-target wildlife species. Residues enter the environment through drift
during application, by volatilization after application, and by transport
via surface water runoff and sediment. Certain pesticides will also be
leached into ground water supplies. While the debate continues over the
actual hazards of pesticide residues in the environment, these residues
should be controlled to reduce potential dangers. Ideally, pesticide
management should be for optimal crop production with minimal adverse
effects on the environment.
Control of Hastes. The direct control of pesticide residues in all media
receptors, i.e., soil, air and water, would be difficult, perhaps impossible.
Though not yet economically practical, only surface water treatment to re-
move pesticide residues appears technically possible. For the most part,
the greatest potential for adverse effects occurs after pesticide application
during the first run-off event. Prospective on-site treatment of pesticides
in this first run-off could be beneficial to the aquatic ecosystem, and
treatment at some later point, after dilution or partial degradation, would
likely be much less effective. This time and event-dependent relationship,
plus the dispersed location of discharge points and the difficulty of pesti-
cide control treatment, makes direct control seem economically infeasible.
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Control of Inputs. Pesticide resource controls have been a policy alterna-
tive regularly utilized by EPA in the past, especially for toxic substances.
Most commonly, certain pesticides have been banned from agricultural use, or
are available only for restricted uses. This action has often resulted in
the use of alternative pesticides by farm operators, and, such pesticides
may either be less effective or require more active material application
per acre to achieve adequate control. Even so, the banned materials are
presumed to have caused (or will have caused) even greater environmental
damage. In the future, the banning of additional pesticides is viewed as
a viable policy option.
Other forms of restrictions on pesticide use would be less severe, yet per-
haps more environmentally beneficial. Controlling the rates of use or the
specifying of conditions of use, including the licensing of pesticide appli-
cators as is now being accomplished under FIFRA, may become more widely feas-
ible in the future. A difficulty with such an alternative is simply its en-
forcement and the potentially high administrative costs. However, the use
of integrated pest control management, i.e., use of chemical-mechanical-
biological management systems, is expected to increase in the future; con-
ceivably, with restricted (rather than banned) pesticides, more cost-
effective and environmentally acceptable management practices could be
developed.
Alternative formulations of pesticides are regularly being developed which
offer improved pest control and less active material per application:
formulations of surfactants with herbicides, foaming agents, and uniform
granular particles. In general, such alternative formulations are ex-
pected to reduce pesticide requirements per application because of their
improved effectiveness. These formulations often offer the advantage,
also, of less drift problems during application.
Control of Management Practices. Current agricultural trends in pest control
management are amenable to policy controls. For example, the expected in-
crease in scouting and integrated controls will aid in reducing the use of
chemical pesticides. Associated management practices such as crop rotations
and the use of pest-resistant crop varieties, attractants, biological pesti-
cides, and others can reduce the need for chemical pesticides.
In general, it is expected that pest control management alternatives, such
as biological pest controls, will only reduce, and not eliminate, the need
for chemical pesticides. Fortunately, improved chemical pesticides are also
being developed which are selective against pests, more readily biodegrad-
able, and non-toxic to man and animals. Plant-breeding improvements which
increase the insect and disease resistance of crops will further aid in the
reduction of chemical pesticide use.
The effectiveness of any of these alternative pest management practices
will depend upon the particular crop and pests present. As an example,
a farm operator might have a choice of using a chemical pesticide, a bio-
logical control, or a very resistant crop variety for control of a partic-
ular insect. For another insect problem, the only effective option might
be the use of chemical pesticides. Farm operators cannot be expected to
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voluntarily adopt alternatives such as pheromones or attractants until it is
feasible for commercial use and can be shown to be as effective as current
control methods. Consequently, continued research and public education
will do much to foster adoption of other pest control practices.
Feedlot Production Subsector - Residual Disposal Management
Feedlot residual disposal alternatives are: temporary storage, on-site dis-
posal, refeeding, and off-site disposal. Off-site disposal is the only al-
ternative considered to have significant implications for NFS control, and,
thus, it is the only practice in the feedlot production subsector assessed
herein.
Control of Wastes. In general, the off-site disposal of wastes is expected
to result in increased concentrations of nitrates, organic material and
microorganisms in receiving waters. Nitrate levels in ground water may also
be increased. Unfortunately, once untreated feedlot wastes leave the feedlot
and are dispersed on the land, their direct control or treatment is seldom
feasible, as with crop production residuals. The costs of prior-disposal
treatment facilities and their technological limitations have been prohibi-
tive; hence, direct controls show little promise as a policy alternative
at the present time.
Control of Inputs. More practical is the control of feedlot-related inputs.
The land available for feedlot waste disposal may be regulated. In addi-
tion, controls might be placed on off-site disposal application rates, and,
controls might be placed on feedlot size based on the amount of suitable
land in the local area that is available for waste disposal.
Controls and restrictions on land use might be applicable, for example,
where land has severe erosion problems or where land drains into a heavily
used or sensitive water receptor. Disposal application rates can be de-
termined for soil characteristics, topography, and method of application.
Finally, feedlot-size constraints can be imposed to reflect the relative
availability of waste disposal sites.
Such input restraints can be maintained by policy issues that regulate the
extent and character of land sites approved for feedlot operations or waste
disposal.
Control of Management Practices. Proper waste disposal application rates
(also a resource use control) and methods e.g., solid or slurry, incorpor-
ated in soil or not, etc. constitute feasible management practices subject
to policy issues. Continued research is needed, however, to ascertain the
best management practices in this feedlot waste disposal area.
Range and Pasture Management Subsector - Grazing Management
Livestock grazing on range and pasture land generally results in increased
soil erosion and runoff. Grazing livestock wastes, also, result in in-
creased amounts of nitrate, organic material and microorganisms in
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receiving waters. Proper grazing management practices will minimize these
pollution effects.
Control of Wastes. Policies to control or treat range and pasture grazing
residues are not expected to be feasible because of the highly dispersed
and expansive character of ranges and pastures. Furthermore, many persons
would argue that the residuals generated are relatively insignificant when
compared with other agricultural or point source wastes. These arguments
suggest that the greatest policy focus should be on control of inputs or
control of management practices where improper actions are evident.
Control of Inputs. Land use is the only applicable input for policy control
Land with severe topographical limitations or land having fragile soils
could be excluded from grazing. Such control would reduce erosion problems
and the transport of livestock wastes into receiving waters. (Stocking
rates—number of animals per unit land—may also be considered as an input
variable, but this is discussed below as a management practice.)
Control of Management Practices. Because grazing practices are the main
management function having associated environmental effects, they are the
most susceptible to control policies. First, grazing management systems
are normally selected by producers, and proper stocking rates are implicit
within the system. Grazing systems are either continuous or specialized.
The determination and selection of a grazing system should be based on
factors such as the type and location of the range or pasture, its topo-
graphical limitations, the condition of the range or pasture, and other
factors (e.g., use of land for recreation or silvicultural production).
The factors to be assessed in selecting the best grazing system are com-
plex, and, for that reason, policies to control the selection of proper
management practices may be applicable. The Bureau of Land Management,
USDI, and the U.S. Forest Service currently provide grazing management
services and controls on public lands.
Range and Pasture Management - Renovations and Improved Management
Range and pasture renovations and improvements involve practices which
usually cause soil disturbances and consequent soil loss. Chemical reno-
vations will also involve increased pesticide runoff. In these cases,
however, pollutant loading increases are normally temporary, and, as re-
vegetation occurs on the disturbed or bared soil, the loadings subside.
For example, drainage and erosion control structures result in a short-
term disruption, but they will eventually promote soil stability and,
thereby, benefit the environment in the future. Because of the differ-
ential short-term vs. long-term effects of range and pasture renovations
and improvements care must be taken in developing policy controls which
might limit renovations in the short-run without adequate evaluation of
the long-term effects.
Control of Wastes. The control of renovation and improvement wastes is
Impracticable both because of the dispersed and intermittent nature of
the practices and because of their relatively short-term environmental
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effects. Further considerations of policy controls are, therefore, limited
to potential resource use limitations and management practice issues.
Control of Inputs. Land use, pesticide use and prescribed fire use are the
primary inputs that may be considered for policy control. Lands unsuited
for grazing or lands with limited carrying-capacity may be restricted in use
and/or renovation practices may be required. Pesticide uses on ranges or
pastures may be regulated, or even banned, under adverse conditions -- much
the same as is being done with pesticides in other agricultural subsectors.
The use of prescribed burning for renovation purposes may be subject to con-
trols in air quality limited regions.
Control of Management Practices. Range and pasture renovation or improvement
practices may result in controversial policy issues, for though these prac-
tices generally result in short-term soil disturbances and increased pollu-
tion, they can yield improved soil stability and reduced pollution in the
long-term. Careful assessments are needed to determine optimum strategies
under varied range or pasture conditions. Alternative management practices
include mechanical or chemical renovations and renovations through prescribed
burnings. Particular attention needs to be given to any potential controls
on range or pasture lands with a rough terrain or with fragile soils.
Other management practices are primarily concerned with the quality of the
range or pasture vegetation. For example, improvements are being made in
the nutritional quality of the vegetation, genetic developments are being
pursued, and inter-seedings with improved forage varieties have been achieved.
These practices will indirectly, if not directly, affect environmental qual-
ity by improving the production efficiency of the nation's range and pasture
resources. Environmental control policies which foster such management
practices may be feasible and beneficial.
B. Silviculture Sector Policy Issues
While certain similarities exist in pollutants generated by the agriculture
and silviculture sectors, certain innate differences do exist; and thus,
their policy issues are assessed separately. Differences include 30 to 100
year growth cycles in silviculture compared to the predominant annual cycles
in agriculture production. Specifically, total annual levels of pollutants
from the entire silviculture sector are relatively small because of the long
growth cycles which require that only a relatively small portion of the total
500 million acres of timber be entered each year for any type of management.
Aesthetic and wildlife considerations, also, may become an increasingly
most important part of silviculture production from the environmentalist's
viewpoint. Silviculture is expected to coexist with wildlife populations,
be aesthetically pleasing, and, at the same time, provide the nation's
timber supply. These multiuse purposes for forest lands complicate the
environmental assessment process.
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As with agriculture, three types of policy controls are discussed within
the silviculture sector: control of wastes, control of inputs, and con-
trol of management practices. A general summary of potential policy is-
sues, categorized by type of control, is shown in Exhibit IV-2. This sum-
mary includes both the Phase I and Phase II environmentally-related trends
in silviculture identified in this overall study.
Silviculture Production Sector - Harvest Management Function
The principal pollutant generated by harvest management practices is sedi-
ment. Since forest areas are seldom fertilized or treated with chemical
pesticides on a regular basis, sediment is usually not a carrier of appli-
cation nutrients or pesticide residues. Other environmental effects of
harvesting include thermal pollution, altered water flow patterns, forest
residues, wildlife disruptions, and aesthetics. While pollutants resulting
from harvest activity may contribute only a small part to aggregate non-
point source pollution, the effect of large sediment loadings or wildlife
disruptions in isolated harvest areas can be very damaging to the ecosystem
in that area. Hence, harvest management, in general, should be evaluated
to improve the control of generated pollutants as well as for the control
of ecological effects.
Control of Wastes. The direct control of sediment generated by harvesting
practices is not regarded as feasible, primarily because sediment loadings
from silviculture activities may be rather insignificant and surface waters
receiving sediment loads will change each year with harvest activity. Forest
residues remaining after harvest can be collected for future use or for con-
trolled burning.
Control of Inputs. Harvest management inputs include land use and equipment
use. Associated policy issues can designate certain sections of a forest
area as critical habitat for certain endangered species, and, therefore,
restrict harvesting. Land with steep terrain or fragile soils could be
withdrawn from road constructions. Harvesting equipment could also be
banned for use in certain terrains and forest types, or conversely specific
practices could be required to ensure minimal environmental impacts. Such
harvest management input contols could be readily adopted on public lands;
private holdings might be similarly managed, with greater complexity however,
if necessary.
Control of Management Practices^ While practices can clearly be established
and identified in agriculture to control runoff and erosion or to control
nutrient losses, these equivalent practices do not exist in silviculture.
Rather, a series of broad functional steps (trends) are involved in har-
vesting management: access to timber, cutting systems, log extraction
methods, and utilization of forest biomass. Each of these steps has
associated practices that must be used during the harvesting of a forest.
Management practices for harvesting are not considered as control measures,
themselves; rather the control of management practices for harvesting im-
plies the proper use of equipment, use of well-engineered plans, and
proper execution of management practices to cause the least environmental
damage. In certain cases, as with cutting systems, a selected management
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Exhibit IV-2. Summary of silviculture sector policy issues by management function and basic policy area
Basic Policy Area
Silviculture Management Control of Management
Function Control of Wastes Control of Inputs Practices
B. SILVICULTURE SECTOR
Harvest management Forest residues, sed- Land use, equipment use Access to timber resource; cutting system;
iment log extraction; utilization
us Stand control management Sediment, nutrients, Fertilizer resource use, Site preparation; growth enhancement
0 forest residues land use, equipment use, stand conversion; stand establishment
control burning use
Damage control management Forest residues, pes- Land use, pesticide re- Fire control; pest control
ticide residues, sed- source use, controlled
iment, nutrients burning use
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practice may be more desirable for specific terrains for forest species. In
summary, the proper execution of a given management practice is usually of
greater concern in harvest management than is the selection of the manage-
ment practice, per se; however, some exceptions are apparent, which may be
subject to effective policy control, such as with cutting system selection.
Silviculture Production Sector - Stand Control Management
Stand control management practices often result in significant soil loss
and sediment loadings in receiving waters. Since fertilizer applications
are required with some of these practices, nutrient loss may also accompany
soil movement and surface runoff. Additionally, other environmental effects
of stand control practices are impaired aesthetic values, unsightly forest
residues, and wildlife disruptions (often irreversible). Thus, the primary
objective of stand control management should be the achieving maximum forest
growth for future harvest while reducing sediment loading in receiving waters
and minimizing ecological disruptions.
Control of Wastes. The direct control of wastes or residuals associated
with stand control involves the control of sediment, nutrients, and forest
residues. Direct control or treatment of sediment and nutrients is expected
to be economically infeasible because sediment loading locations are very
diverse and will change as stand control management moves from one site to
another after successful regeneration. Direct control of forest residues
is already being accomplished by the collection of residuals remaining after
site preparation, thinning control or other stand control measures. These
residues, after collection, may be marketed or burned, under controlled con-
ditions, as a means of removal.
Control of Inputs. Stand control management practice inputs include the
two as discussed for harvest management -- land use and equipment use, plus
two additional inputs -- fertilizer use and controlled burning use. De-
pending upon the terrain, harvest methods, and desired forest species, each
of the four inputs could have restraints placed on their use. For example,
large applications of phosphate are needed on some forest soils in the South
for successful regeneration. Should phosphate concentrations in surface
water greatly increase, phosphate application could be restricted on a per
acre basis. Another example of input control would involve land use in the
conversion of wetlands to productive forests. If these wetlands were to be
designated as critical habitat for winter waterfowl, then further conversion
of this land into forest area could be restricted.
Control of Management Practices. Four trends -- site preparation, growth
enhancement, stand conversion, and stand establishment are considered stand
control management practices. Each of these has a number of associated
practices that can be used singly or in conjunction with other practices
to achieve optimum forest regeneration; however, as with harvest management
practices, the proper execution of a given management practice is often of
greater concern than is the actual selection of a management practice. For
the most part, a stand control management practice is primarily designed
not to specifically reduce a pollutant or minimize certain ecological
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effects but to be effective in some area of stand control. With careful,
conscientious execution, pollutants and other ecological effects resulting
from these practices can be reduced.
Site preparation can be accomplished by several means: log extraction
method, mechanical preparation, burning prescription, chemical treatment,
fertilizer treatment, and soil moisture control. Burning prescription or
chemical treatment might be preferred practices in forest areas with steep
terrains, fragile soils, or heavy rainfall; with other soils and forest
types, any of the site preparation methods, with proper planning and exe-
cution, could be used with minimal pollutant loading effects.
Growth enhancement, stand conversion, and stand establishment also offer
some choice in practice alternatives. Again, proper execution is often
the most important aspect in reducing pollutant loadings and ecological
effects.
Silviculture Production Sector - Damage Control Management
The third area of selected silviculture management functions is the control
of fire, insects, and disease to reduce the potential for forest damage.
Pesticide residue levels in receiving waters are expected to increase with
chemical control of insects and disease. Mechanical treatment used to
eliminate infested material will result in forest residues and in minor
soil disturbances. For the most part, fire control and prevention methods
will have relatively insignificant environmental impacts. Controlled fire
will result in air pollution and in temporary increases in the nutrient
levels of receiving streams.
Control of Wastes. Forest residues, sediment, nutrients, and pesticides
partially discussed previously, are associated with direct control of re-
siduals resulting from damage control management. Additionally, collection
and/or controlled burning of forest residues may result in beneficial aes-
thetic effects, and as a management practice, the elimination of these
residues will reduce the potential for hazardous forest fires.
Control of Inputs. As with the other management practices, certain forests
are or could be designated as having critical habitat or as having such
topographical limitations that restrictions could be placed on land and/or
resource use. Fire control practices, a third damage management practice
input, involve improvements in prevention and detection methods and in
the use of controlled fire to reduce the potential of disastrous fires.
Generally, these practices will have relatively insignificant environ-
mental impacts, and the control of management practices will be for more
efficiency in their functions rather than for the control of environmental
pollutants.
Control of Management Practices^. For insect and disease control, only two
options exist for management practices: control by mechanical treatment
or control by chemical agents. Since each can result in pollutants of some
nature, careful planning and execution of either practice are necessary to
reduce potential environmental pollutants. Some alternatives do exist,
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however, in the control of insects and disease. If, for example, a properly
applied insecticide has adverse effects on non-target wildlife or on aquatic
ecosystems from aerial drift or surface runoff, then the best management
might involve using mechanical treatment in that area, even though forest
residues and potential soil loss will occur. Additionally, pest control
with such biological agents as pheromones, repellants, or natural predators
may become another alternative by 2010. This practice might be preferable
to chemical or mechanical control in some areas.
93
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SECTION V
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Fisher, C. E., and P. T. Marion, "Continuous and Rotation Grazing on
Buffalo and Tobasa Grassland," J. Range Management, 4:48-51, 1951.
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cision Making, pp. 34-39, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Economic Research
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in Western Oregon," Proc. Symposium of Water Pollution and Abate-
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Freschknecht, N. C., and L. E. Harris, "Grazing Intensities and Systems on
Crested Wheat Grass in Central Utah: Response of Vegetation and
Cattle, Tech. Bull., No. 1388, Forest Service, U. S. Dept. of Agr.,
Washington, D. C., 1968.
Frink, C. R., "The Nitrogen Cycle of a Dairy Farm," In: Relationship of
Agriculture to Soil and Water Pollution, Cornell Univ., 1970.
Gingrich, J. R., and R. S. Stauffer, "Effects on Long-time Soil Treatments
on Some Physical Properties of Several Illinois Soils," SSSAP,
19:257-260, 1955.
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U. S. Dept. Agr., Forest Service, Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW29, 1976.
96
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Grantham, J. B., E. M. Estap, H. Tarkow and T. C. Adams, Energy and Raw
Material Potential of Wood Residue in Pacific Coast States, 1974.
Grathowski, H., "Silvicultural Use of Herbicides in Northwest Forests,"
U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Service, Tech. Rep. PNW 37, 44 p., 1975.
Guttenberg, S., "Forestry Goals and Practices on Large Ownerships in the
South," J. Forestry, 67(7):456-461, 1969.
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J. Range Management, 23:418-442, 1970.
Harr, A. D., Forest Practices and Streamflow in Western Oregon, U. S.
Dept. Agr., Forest Service, Tech. Rep. PNN 49, 1976.
Haworth, F., T. V. Cleaver and J. M. Bray, "The Effects of Different
Manurial Treatments on the Yield and Mineral Composition of Early
Potatoes," J. Hort. Science, 41:225-241, 1966.
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Systems on Plant Nutrient Cycling," In: Proc. of Int. Symposium on
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Michigan, 1971.
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Soil," SSSAP, 29:278-281, 1965.
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tives?" In: Economic Research on Pesticides for Policy Decision
Making, pp 14-21, U. S. Dept. of Agr., Economic Research Service,
Washington, D. C., 1971.
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of Action of Farmyard Manure. I. The Influence of Soil Moisture
Conditions on the Response of Maine Crop Potatoes to Farmyard Manure,"
J. Ag. Science, 64:161-166, 1965.
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J. Soil and Water Conservation, 23(1):19-20, 1968.
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Balance in North America, Proc. Ser 7, 1969.
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Management, 4:25-29, 1951.
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Swine Waste Treatment Alternatives," Waste Management Research,
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97
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Hyder, D. N., and W. A. Sawyer, "Rotation-Deferred Grazing as Compared to
Season-Long Grazing on Sagebrush-Bunchgrass in Oregon," J. Range
Management, 4:30-34, 1951.
Inglett, G. E., "The Challenge of Waste Utilization," Symposium: Pro-
cessing Agricultural and Municipal Wastes, Ave, West Port, Conn.,
1973.
"Irrigation-Fertigation Round Table," Crops and Soils, 29(7):14-21, 1977.
Jameson, D. A., "Responses of Individual Plants to Harvesting," Botanical
Review, 29:532-594, 1963.
Jenke, A. L., Evaluation of Salinity Created by Irrigation Return Flows,
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 127 p., 1974.
Jensen, M. E., Scientific Irrigation Scheduling for Salinity Control of
Irrigation Return Flows, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1975
Johnson, H., W. D. Shrader and J. F. Timmons, "Regional Development and
Management of Land and Water Resources Within Iowa," On-going re-
search, Agr. Exp. Station, Ames, Iowa, 1976.
Johnson, N. E., "Pesticide Usage in Forestry," J. Forestry, 5:546-548,
1972.
Johnson, W. M., "Rotation, Rest-Rotation, and Season-Long Grazing on a
Mountain Range in Wyoming," Forest Service Research Paper, RM-14,
Rocky Mt. Forest and Range Exp. Sta., Fort Collins, CO., 1965.
Kellogg, L., and E. Aurlich, "Prebunch and Swing Technique May Reduce
Thinning Costs," Forest Industries, Vol. 104(2), p. 30, February,
1977.
Koch, P., "Key to Utilization of Hardwoods: The Shaping Lathe Headrig,"
Forest Industries, 103(111):48-51, 1976.
Larse, R. W., "Prevention and Control of Erosion and Sedimentation from
Forest Roads, In: Proc. Symposium of Forest Land Uses and Stream
Environment, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, Oregon, 1970.
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Native Shortgrass Vegetation in West-Central Kansas," Agr. Expt.
Sta. Bull., 394, 1957.
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Summer Meeting ASAE, Stillwater, June 23-26, 1974.
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Marriot, L. F., and H. D. Bartlett, "Animal Waste Contribution to Nitrate,
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Mathers, A. C., and B. A. Stewart, "Crop Production and Soil Analysis as
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Mclntosh, J. L., and K. E. Varney, "Accumulative Effects of Manure and N
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"Solid-set soybeans can boost yield 20 percent," Crops and Soils, 28(4):
22-23, 1976.
Sommerfelt, T. G., U. J. Pittman and R. A. Milne, "Effect of Feedlot Manure
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"1976 Southern Pulpwood Production Sets Another Record, up 4%", Forest
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1970.
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the 69th Annual Meeting of the Amer. Dairy Science Assoc., Univ. of
Guelph, Canada, 1974.
Swader, F. N., and B. A. Stewart, "The Effect of Feedlot Wastes on the
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1972.
Swanston, D. L., and F. J. Swanson, "Timber Harvesting, Mass Erosion and
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103
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Timmons, D. R., and R. F. Holt, "Relationship of Nutrient Content of Water
to Agricultural Practices and Natural Vegetation," On-going Research,
North Central Soil Cons. Res. Lab, Minnesota, 1976.
"Topometrics, A System for Evaluating Route Alternatives," Nat. Acad.
Sciences Trans. Res. Bd. Sp. Reproduction 160, pp. 141-145, 1975.
Ursic, S. J., "Harvesting Southern Forests: A Threat to Water Quality?"
In: Nonpoint Sources of Water Pollution, pp. 145-151, Proc. S. E.
Regional Conference, Blacksburg, Virginia, 1975.
Ursic, S. J., "Pine Management Influences the Southern Center Resource,"
Proc. Symposium of Young Pines, 1974.
U. S. Bureau of Census, Census of Agriculture, 1969, Volume 5, Special
Reports, Part 15, Graphic Summary, 1971.
U. S. Congress, "Alternative Futures for U.S. Agriculture," and "Minimum
Tillage," Committee Print 94th Congress, 1st Session, Sept. 1975.
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Draft Development Document for Ef-
fluent Limitations Guidelines and Standard Performance, Feedlot
Industry, 1973.
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Farmers Pesticide Use Decisions and
Attitudes on Alternative Crop Protection Methods, 158 p., 1974.
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Logging Roads and Protection of
Water Quality. Region X, 312 p., 1975.
U. S. Forest Service, A National Program for Research and Development on
Non-point Source~Water Pollution on Forest and Range!and, (Review
draft) Washington, D. C., 1976.
U. S. Forest Service, "Douglas Fir Supply Study," Regions 5 and 6 PNW,
Forest and Range Exp. Station, Portland, Oregon, 51 p., 1969.
U. S. Forest Service, Outlook for Timber in the United States, FRR-20,
U. S. Dept. Agr., 207 p., 1973.
U. S. Forest Service, "Properties and Uses of Bark as an Energy Source,"
Res. Paper PNW 31, Forest Research Lab., Oregon State Univ.,
Corvallis, Oregon, 1976.
U. S. Forest Service, "Region 6 Timber and Road Construction Audit,"
U. S. Dept. Agr., 1973.
U. S. Forest Service, RPA - A Recommended Renewable Resource Program Supple-
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104
-------
U. S. Forest Service, RPA - A Recommended Renewable Resource Program, U. S.
Dept. Agr., 652 p., 658 p., and App., 1976.
U. S. Department of Agriculture, The Nation's Range Resources, Forest
Resource, Rep. No. 19, 1972.
U. S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Control
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Washington, D. C., 1975.
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Young, R. A., "Nutrients in Runoff from Manure Spread on Frozen Ground,"
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105
-------
APPENDIX A
DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL TRENDS
AND THE ECOLOGY WORKSHOP EVALUATION SUMMARY
The Contractor prepared a background summary report of selected Phase II
agriculture trends and subtrends which was submitted to an ecology work-
shop panel for their review prior to the workshop. Based upon this sum-
mary, the workshop identified and rated the ecological effects of each
subtrend in three areas: aquatic life, terrestrial life, and human health.
A. Background Summary Report - Agricultural Sector
Only selected trends and their subtrends, from Phase I, as shown in Exhibit
A-l, were chosen for the Phase II study. In particular, 10 trends and 41
subtrends are contained herein for detailed analysis. The Contractor con-
ducted a thorough literature search for each subtrend's extensiveness of
use, productivity effects, changes in resource use, and pollutant changes
by media. Quantitative data were sought and included when available in the
summary report. A worksheet was prepared for each subtrend showing the Con-
tractor's research findings, conclusions, and references. This information
was provided to each workshop participant in the background summary report
and summaries are contained in the Appendix immediately following.
B. Evaluation
As mentioned, the principal task of the ecology workshop was to determine
and rate the ecological effects of each agriculture subtrend in three areas:
aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health. Ecological effects could
be beneficial (+) or adverse (-) on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor, 2 =
limited, 3 = moderate, 4 = important and 5 = major. A consensus judgment
was sought by the workshop for all ecological ratings. Ratings were deter-
mined for both the short-term, 1985, and long-term, 2010, relative to 1976.
Worksheets showing the ecological effects, ecological ratings, and related
ecological research needs for each subtrend are also contained herein in
conjunction with the background summaries according to their trend-subtrend
number as shown in Exhibit A-l.
106
-------
Exhibit A-l. Summary of selected Phase II trends and
subtrends in agriculture
Sector/Trend
Subtrend
A. AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Crop Production
1. Runoff and Erosion Control
2. Conservation Tillage
3. Improved Water Application
4. Improvement Seed and Plants
5.
6.
Scouting and Integrated
Controls
Development of New Bio-
logical and Chemical
Pesticides
7.
Methods of Nutrient
Application
8. Soil Plant Analysis
Feedlot Production
9. Alternative Residual
Disposal
Range and Pasture Management
10. Grazing Practices and
Stocking Rates
1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping
1.2 Terraces and grass waterways
1.3 Optimizing time of operations
1.4 Narrow rows
1.5 Winter cover crop
2.1 No-tillage
2.2 Reduced tillage
3.1 Furrow basins
3.2 Land grading
3.3 Sprinklers
3.4 Recycling and controlling tailwater
3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency
4.1 Weather resistance
4.2 Salt resistance
4.3 Production efficiency
4.4 Disease and insect resistant
5.1 Surface scouting
5.2 Remote sensing scouting
5.3 Integrated controls
6.1 Micro-encapsulated
6.2 Systemic pesticides
6.3 Surfactants for herbicides
6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides
6.5 Alternative formulations
6.6 Juvenile hormones
6.7 Pheromones
6.8 Sterile males
6.9 Predators and parasites
7.1 Foliar application
7.2 Multiple application
7.3 Fall application
7.4 Liquid fertilizer
7.5 Aerial and floater application
7.6 Improved nutrient placement
7.7 Irrigation application
8.1 Soil plant analysis
9.1 Off-site disposal- solids and
liquids
10.1 Continuous grazing
10.2 Specialized grazing
10.3 Complementary forage seedings
10.4 Controlled livestock grazing
107
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping
Ecological Effect Rating _!/
TYPE OF EFFECT 19852010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +1 +4 4-turbidity; tspecies diversity; low E in 1985; ^pesticide residues
Terrestrial +1 +3 4-erosion; retention of nutrient cycles
Human Health 0 0 No significant effects
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Extensiveness of contouring in 1935 (over 1976 use) will be low, but will increase by 2010. Beneficial aquatic effects
_, result from decreased turbidity and pesticide residues in surface water. Species diversity will also increase in the
o equatic ecosystem. Decreased erosion and retention of soil nutrient cycles will have long term beneficial terrestrial
00 effects. Since pesticide residues at current levels in drinking water are not known to be a human health hazard,
reduction of pesticide residues will have no significant human health effects. However, if pesticide residues are later
determined to be dangerous at current levels, then human health effects would be beneficial.
(2) Research needs:
a. Continued research is needed on pesticide residues and their effects on human health.
b. Additional research is also needed to determine the effectiveness of contouring on reducing nutrient and
pesticide losses.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 1.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 1. Runoff find Erosion Control
Subtrend; 1,1 Contour Faming/Contour Strip Cropping
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
o
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Acreage of crops farmed on the con-
tour or strip cropped decreased 25%
between 1964 and 1969 and continued
to decrease slightly to 1976. Con-
tour farming is more widely used in
nonirrigated crop production than in
irrigated crop production.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 _5_.
Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1 .
2. Grain and Row Crops on Contour--
1964 = 20,254,000 acres
1969 = 14,572,000 acres
Strip Cropping for Erosion Control-
1964 = 16,029,000 acres
1969 = 12,447,000 acres
1. Dev. Planning & Res. Assoc., En-
vironmental Implications of Trends
in Agriculture and Silviculture,
Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977.
2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of
Agriculture, 1969. Volume 5.
Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic
Summary, 1971.
Productivity Land suited to contour farming
techniques will have production
levels comparable to conventional
methods. Decreased income may re-
sult from hay rotations 1n strip
cropping. Land base will remain
the same.
3. Yields from contour farming will
bi 0.1% less than conventional
methods.
4. Hay rotations 1n strip cropping
can decrease profits.
3. Putrran, J., Stripe, S., and
McDivitt, J., A Summary of the
Linear Programming Analysis for
the Maumee Level B River Basin
Study, preliminary working paper.
T25~pp., 1977.
4. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,
Control of Water Pollution from
Cropland, Volume 1, Report No.
ARS-H-5-1, Washington, D.C.,
1975.
Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
main constant. Insecticide use
will remain constant to very
slight increases (.02%).
5. Fertilizer and herbicide use re- 5. Reference #3.
main constant. Insecticide use
increases 0.02?.
6. Fertilizer and pesticide use do 6. reference #4.
not change with contouring.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water
Sediment
Sediment loss can be reduced sub-
stantially on moderate slopes, but
much less on steep slopes. Reduc-
tions up to 50% are possible, but
average reductions will be about
35%. Contour strip cropping can re-
duce sediment losses more than con-
tour alone. (Note: research shows
substantial loss can occur with
contour watersheds with some soil
types, with long slopes and/or with
steep slopes.)
/. Soil loss is reduced an average
of 12% with contour farming
practices.
8. Contour reduces soil loss to 50%
on moderate slopes, but much less
on steep slopes. Contour strip
cropping reduces soil loss to 50%
of that in contour alone.
9. Direct run-off was reduced 32%
with contouring over 9-year
period.
7. Reference #3.
8. Reference #4.
9. Allis, J. A. "The Story of Two
Watersheds." Journal Soil and
Water Conservation 7(5): 243,
195L.
continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 1.1. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water
Sediment
(Continued)
Nutrients
Pesticides
Nutrients associated with sediment
will be reduced, but reductions may
not be proportional to the amount
of sediment lost.
Pesticide reductions will be less
than that for nutrients since a
greater amount of pesticide 1s
lost through surface-water than
bound to sediment.
10. Runoff was reduced 13-16% with
contour tillage.
11. Contour farmmj on slopes with
loess soil showed substantial
soil losses, 17-48 metric tons/ha.
12. Practices reducing direct surface
runoff and erosion will reduce
nutrient transport, but reduc-
tions may not be proportional to
sediment reductions.
13. 89;: of N lost and 95'* of F lost
were associated with sediment
(except for alfalfa).
14. Over 97% of N and P lost from
valersheds was associated with
sediment lost primarily in first
2 months after planting.
15. Major mechanism of pesticide loss
(except for chlorinated hydro-
carbons) is not by transport on
eroded soil particles, but with
surface runoff water. The con-
centration on sediment is greater,
but the greatest amount of loss
occur with surface runoff, since
there is a greater amount of water
lost compared to sediment. Run-
off and soil loss management
practices can often reduce pes-
ticide losses to some extent.
10. Wischmeier, W.H., "Relation of
Field-plot Runoff to Management
and Physical Factors," Soil Sci.
Soc. Amer. Proc. 30: 272-277,
1966.
11. Burwell, R.E., and others, "Qual-
ity of Water Discharged from Two
Agricultural Watersheds in South-
western Iowa," Water Resources
Research 10(2): 359-365, 1974.
12. Reference *4.
13. Timmons, D.R., and Holt, R.F.,
"Relation of Nutrient Content of
Water to Agricultural Practices
and Natural Vegetation," on-going
research, North Cen. Soil Cons.
Res. Lab, Minnesota, 1976.
14. Burwell, R.E., and others, "Nu-
trient Transport in Surface Run-
off as Influenced by Soil Cover
and Seasonal Periods," Soil Sci.
Soc. Amer. Proc., 1975.
15. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and
Swank, R.R., "Transport, Detoxi-
fication, Fate, and Effects of
Pesticides 1n Soil and Water En-
vironments," pp. 48-78. In: Land
Application of Waste Materials,
Soil Cons. Society of Am., Iowa,
1976.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water—Nutrients-
Pesticides
Loss of nutrients and pesticides
through ground water will remain
constant or decrease slightly. How-
ever the amount of N leached 1s
small compared to amount that can
be lost 1n runoff and loss of pes-
ticides to ground water 1s minor
with proper application rates.
16. Movement of pesticides into
ground water from normal appli-
cation rates is an unlikely path-
way of significant loss.
17. Amount of N leached Is small com-
pared to the amount than can be
lost in runoff.
18. As much as 89 to 90% of N lost 1s
bound to sediment.
16. Reference #15.
17. Reference #4.
18. Reference #13 and #14.
continued
-------
Exhibit 1.1. (Continued)
Environmental Research
Effects Conclusions Findin9> References
Pollutant Changes Erosion losses can be reduced up See research finding on sediment.
in Media: Soil to 50% with average reductions
of U,? (See conclusions on
sediment).
Pollutant Changes Pesticide losses through volatiliza- 19. Incorporation of pesticides into 19. Re.-rence #15.
in Media: Air tion will decrease if they are in- soil tends to reduce losses by
corporated into the soil by mechan- volatilization and wind erosion.
ical means.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control SubtrerJ: 1.2 Terraces and grass waterways
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 19"5? 2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +1 +3 conserve water; 4-turbidity; 1-species, 4-pesticides; low E
Terrestrial +1 +3 topsoil saved; tspecies diversity; -(-pathways
Human Health 0 0 no known effect, based on present knowledge
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/ :
Terraces are more effective than contouring in reducing pollutants, but extensiveness of use is lower for terraces.
Aquatic effects are decreased turbidity, increased species diversity, and decreased pesticide residues. Terrestrial
effects are beneficial, resulting from increased vegetation on terraces and grass water waterways, increased diversity
of wildlife, and more pathways for animal populations to travel. Valuable topsoil will also be retained. Based on
present knowledge, there is no known human health effect. Decreased sediment in water might result in an unpleasant
taste or odor in drinking water.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research is needed on the maintenance of terrace; and grassways and the effects on terrestrial life.
b. Sediment standards in U.S. waters and the effect upon drinking water quality need to be determined.
c. Effectiveness of soil erosion measures in the control of nutrient losses needs continued research.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=ma,jor ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 1.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control
Subtrend: 1.2 Terrfces and Grass Haterways
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Terraces and grass waterways are
not important in irrigated pro-
duction, but are important for non-
irrigated crops. However only 6* of
all acres in 1969 had terraces. The
acres with terraces in 1976 could
have increased or decreased slightly.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
Panel 1: 1976 4 t 1985 5 t 2010 _5_
Panel 2: 1976 J , 1985 0 . 2010 _1_
2. Cropland and pastures with ter-
races in 1969 were 16,435,000
acres.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture. Volume I, 200 pp., 1S77.
2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of
Agriculture. 1969, Volume 5,
Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic
Summary.
Productivity Productivity will remain unchanged.
Some land will be taken out of
production by terraces and grass
waterways, but will permit more
extensive cropping on slopes.
Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide, and in-
secticide use is not expected to
increase (Fertilizer could in-
crease if production per cropped
acre is expected to increase to
compensate for land taken out of
production). However, terrace
practices will not require more
fertilizers. Costs and maintenance
increase for terraces.
3. Terraces can increase cropping
intensities on slopes.
U.S. Department of Agriculture/
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Control of Water Pollu-
tion from Cropland. Volume I,
Report No. ARS-H-5-1, Wasnington,
D.C., 1975.
None Available.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water - Sediment
Substantial reductions in
sediment and runoff can usually
be expected.
4. Reduced sediment 94-985! compared
to contour Loess soil on slope.
22% of total water yield was
surface runoff, 78% was base flow
water.
5. Runoff from terrace field had a
207. increase.
6. Terraces usually reduce runoff
and sediment.
7. Contour continuous :orn on Loess
soil lost 38 tons of sediment per
acre compared to 1 ton - 2.9 tons
of sediment per acre lost with
terraces. Of total water yield,
11% was surface runoff with ter-
races compared to 67% surface
runoff for contour.
4. Bui-well, R.E., and others, "Qual-
ity of Water Discharged from Two
Agricultural Watersheds in South-
western Iowa," Water Resources
Research 10(2): 359-365, 1974.
5. Richardson, C.W., "Changes in
Water Yield of Small Watersheds
by Agricultural Practices, Iran
ASAE 15(3): 591-592.
6. Reference * 3.
7. Saxon, K.E., Sporner, R.G., and
Kramer, L.A., "Hydrology and
Erosion of Loesslal Watersheds,"
ASCE Proc. Hvdr. D1v. 97(Hv 11h
1835-1851. 1971.
continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 1.2. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Nutrients
Pesticides
Reductions in nitrates and phos-
phates are expected with decreased
soil loss and surface runoff. Re-
ductions could be substantial with
some soils and cropping systems.
Reduction of pesticide residues In
surface water could be substantial
with terrace systems, since both
surface runoff and soil loss are
reduced.
8. Total nitrogen lost in surface
runoff with terraces was reduced
83-94% compared to contoured corn.
Phosphorous lost in sediment was
recuced 63-RO" In the same system.
9. As much as 97% of N and P lost
frcm watersheds was associated
with sediment loss, primarily in
first two months after planting.
10. Pesticides are lost on sediment
anc oy surface runoff. The
greatest amount of pesticide loss
is from surface runoff. Concen-
tre tions on sediment may be
higher, but a greater amount of
water is lost compared to sediment.
11. Hydrocarbon and organophosphate
insecticides were used on a
terraced-watershed, but no de-
tectable residues were found in
runoff water.
8. Reference #4.
9. Burwell, R.E., Timrons, D.R., and
Holt, R.F., "Nutrient Transport
1n Surface Water as Influenced by
Soil Cover and Seasonal Periods,"
Soil Sci. Soc. Amer. Proc.. 1975.
10. Leonard, R.A., Bally, G.W., and
Swank, R.R., "Transport, Detox-
ification, Fate, and Effects of
Pesticides in Soil and Water
Environments, ' Land Application
of Haste Materials. Soil Conser-
vation Society of America, Iowa,
1976.
11. Reference #4.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water - Nutrients
Pesticides
N in ground water may be re-
duced, based on limited
research data.
Leaching of pesticides 1s not likely
to result in significant loss with
normal application rates.
12. N loss in ground water showed 20-
45? reductions for a terrace
watershed compared to a contour
watershed.
12. Reference #4.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Substantial reductions 1n erosion
can result.
See research finding on sediment.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: A1r
No change.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.3 Optimizing time of operations
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT IMF 2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +1 +1 E will increase by 1985; 10-20% ^sediment; -l-turbidity
Terrestrial +1 +2 twildlife rood; wildlife environment enhanced
Human Health 0 0 No known human health effects
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2J:
This subtrend assumes that spring plowing vs. fall plowing will increase by 1935. Aquatic effects result from 10-20%
reductions in soil loss, decreased turbidity, and increased species diversity. Beneficial terrestrial results,
—| besides saving topsoil, are increased winter food supply for wildlife and provision of a more structured environment
en for wildlife in winter. This subtrend has no know human health effects.
(2) Research needs:
a. More research is needed for effectiveness of spring plowing vs. fall plowing on flat and hilly terrains.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=mc.jor ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 1.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control
Subtrend: 1.3 Optinrzing Time of Operations
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Extensiveness is unknown; however,
based upon workshop rating in non-
irrigated crop production, extensive-
ness was moderate in 1976 and expected
to increase to important levels by 2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings
Panel 1: 1976 3 , 1985 4 , 2010
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of
'rends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume 1, 200 pp.. 1977.
Productivity Optimizing time to solely minimize
and reduce runoff can cause pro-
ductivity decreases, when bad
weather prevents planting. Over-
all productivity would likely remain
unchanged, since some farmers would
experience yield increases with
optimum planting time.
Resource Base
Resource base is expected to
remain constant.
No research data available.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water - Sediment
CT>
Nutrients
Pesticides
Spring planting at optimum time
can reduce sediment slightly.
Residues remaining through winter,
can further reduce soil loss.
Estimated reductions in soil with
spring plowing are 10-205!.
Slight reductions to no change are
expected for nutrients in surface
water.
Slight reductions to no change are
expected for pr-.ticide residues in
surface water
2. Compared to fall plowing, spring
plowing can reduce soil loss by
10%. However, fall plowing can be
recommended with areas having very
wet springs with nearly level
soils of moderately fine to fine
texture. Delayed spring planting
and plowing beyond optimum dates
can Increase soil loss.
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. En-
vironmental Protection Agency,
Control of Water Pollution from
Cropland. Volume 1, Report No. ARS-
H-5-1, Washington, D.C., 1975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water
Relatively little change for nutri-
ents and pesticides entering ground
water. However, leaching of N and
pesticides into ground water is not
likely to result in significant
losses with normal applications 1n
most farming operations.
3. Movement of pesticides into ground
water from normal applications 1n
farming is an unlikely pathway of
significant loss.
4. 89% of N lost and 95% of P lost
were associated with sediment
losses.
3. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and
Swank, R.R., "Transport, detoxlfi-
cati'.n, Fate, and Effects of Pes-
ticides in Soil and Water Environ-
ments, pp. 48-78. In: Land Appli-
cation of Waste Materials. Soil
Conservation Society of Amerlca,
Iowa, 1976.
4. Timmcns, D.R., and Holt, R.F., "Re-
lation of Nutrient Content of Water
to Agricultural Practices and
Natu'"1! Vegetation," on-going re-
search, North Central Soil Conserv.
Res. Lab, Minnesota, 1976.
continued
-------
Exhibit 1.3. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
5. Over 97% of N and P lost from
watersheds was associated with
sedlrcent loss, primarily 1n first
2 months after planting.
Burwell, R.E., and others, "Nutri-
ent Transport in Surface Runoff as
Influenced by Soil Cover and
Seasonal Periods," Soil Sci. Soc..
Amer. Proc., 1975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Slight reductions to no change in
erosion losses with this practice.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
No Change.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.4 Narrow rows
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 1WT 2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic 0 1 small 4- in sediment
Terrestrial 0.. 1 4-erosion; conserve topsoil
Human Health Q .0 No significant effect
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Use of narrow rows will have no significant ecological effect in 1985 and only minor beneficial aquatic and terrestrial
effects in 2010. Decreased soil loss is the primary beneficial effect. Although herbicide and insecticide use could
—' increase slightly, soil loss is also reduced slightly. Thus, overall pesticide residue concentration should not
co increase and there will be no significant human health effect.
(2) Research needs:
a. Feasibility of cotton and other row crops planted to narrower rows needs to be more fully researched.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 1.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control
Subtrend: i.4 Narrow Rows
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Thi: practice is currently appli-
cable to corn and soybean production.
Since 1973, 253! of the farm operators
in one corn producing area have
turned to narrow row corn. Exten-
slveness of use was estimated to be
moderate 1n 1976 and expected to
increase to major levels in 2010.
1. Horkshop Evaluation Ratings-
Panel 1: 1976 3 , 1985 4 .
2010 5 .
1. Dev. Planning and Res. Assoc., En-
vironmental Implications in Agri-
culture and Silviculture, 200 pp.
~
Productivity
Overall productivity on a per acre
basis will increase with narrow
row crops. Increases of 10-205! have
occurred with narrow row soybeans
in field trails. However, the in-
crease in yields that a farm opera-
tor will realize will depend on
previous crop management practices,
fert.iizer use, the type of crop
and climatic conditions.
3. Soybean yield increases up to 20%
with narrow rows. Practice is
recommended for use on soils with
a soybean yield not normally above
40 bushels per acre.
4. Increased yields with soybeans in
equidistant plantings.
3. "Solio-set soybeans can boost yield
20 percent," Crops and Soils 28(4):
22-23, 1976.
4. "Soybeans planted equidistantly in-
crease yields," Crops and Soils,
29(3):26,1976.
Resource Use More plants per acre will increase
the total fertilizer requirement by
30-40% to meet the needs of the crop.
Slight increases are expected in
herbicide use but insecticide use
will not change with this practice.
5. With narrow row corn, 96% of the
farm operators increased nitrogen
use by 33%.
5. Reference #2.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water
Narrow row crops will provide more
cover for the land and will decrease
soil losses slightly. Nutrient
losses to surface water are not ex-
pected to decrease and could increase
slightly since fertilizer use will
increase (however, the number of
plants utilizing fertilizer nutrients
increases, so the potential for In-
creased nutrient loss 1s small).
There will be little or no effect on
pesticide losses.
6. Decrease in row spacing provides
more complete cover and tests show
some reduction in erosion during
first 2 months of crop year.
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. En-
vironmental Protection Agency,
Control of Water Pollution from
Cropland, Volume I. Report No. ARS-
H-5-1, Washington, D.C., 1975.
follutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Hater
No significant changes.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Soil
Slight reductions In erosion will
occur with more ground cover.
Pollutant Changes
In Media: A1r
No Change.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.5 Winter cover crops
Ecological Effect Rating I]
TYPE OF EFFECT 1985 ~: ffiflj Factors/Rationale
Aquatic 0 1 regional areas, esp. S.E.
Terrestrial 0 1 lerosion, conservation of topsoil
Human Health 0 -J Paraquat use may \ -^-applicator hazards; tpesticide
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/ :
There are no significant ecological effects in 1935. In 2010, minor beneficial aquatic and terrestrial effects result
from small soil loss reductions. The south and southeast will benefit most from this practice. With the elimination of
—• fall plowing, the need for winter cover crop is reduced. Paraquat use is expected to increase with winter cover crops
o and presents a human health danger by direct contact during application or through contact in field.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research on interseeding with winter cover crops is needed,
b. Research is needed on the increased use of paraquat, its effects, and alternatives to its use.
c. Development of farm implements for quicker, more efficient spring planting operations is needed.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) wh?re l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 1.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control
Subtrend: 1,5 Winter Cover Crops
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Extfslveness of this practice is
minor in 1976 and will show a slight
increase by 2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
Panel 1: 1976 1 , 1985 2 . 2010 _2_
Panel 2: 1976 1 , 1985 1 t 2010 J_
In South more than 90% use winter
cover crops.
Dev. Planning and Res. Assoc., En-
vironmental Implications of Trends
in Agriculture and Silviculture,
200 ip., 1977.
Productivity Productivity values are variable.
If winter cover crops are .used as a
second crop, total production will
increase. However winter crops in
some climates will reduce soil
moisture and decrease spring crop,
yields.
Resource Use Fertilizer use could increase signif-
icantly (as much as 100 Ibs. per acre)
if winter cover crops are used as a
second income crop. If crops are
plowed under in the spring, then the
fertilizer nutrients will simply be
recycled and fertilizer use will not
increase. Herbicide use may increase,
especially if no-till planting follows
in the spring. Insecticide use will
not increase.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water - Sediment
Nutrients
Pesticides
Winter cover crops will tend to
reduce sediment losses slightly.
Nutrient losses to surface water
will decrease slightly if fertilizer
use is not increased, but total year-
ly nutrient losses could increase 1f
yearly fertilizer use is significantly
increased.
No significant change is expected.
2. Winter cover crop reduced soil con-
centration 1n runoff by 18-58*.
3. No reduction in runoff with win-
ter cover crop was found.
2. Wishmeier, W., "Relation of Field
Plot Runoff to Management and
Physical Factors," Soil Scl. Soc.
Am. Proc. 30(2}:272^277, 1966.
3. Mannering, J.V. and Burwell, R.E.,
"Tillage Methods to Reduce Runoff
and Erosion in the Corn Belt,"
ARS Aqr. Inf. Bulletin, #330,
U.S.D.A., 1968.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water - Nutrients
N leaching decreases with this
practice, however more fertilizer
may be used, and overall loss by
leaching would probably not be
significantly decreased.
4. Winter cover of oats, timothy rye
reduced N leaching 40-60%.
Frlnk, C.R., "The Nitrogen Cycle
of a Dairy Farm," In: Relationship
of Agriculture to Soil and Water
Pollution, Cornell Univ., 1970.
continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 1.5. (Continued) p
Environmental Research
Effects Conclusions Findings References
Pesticides No significant change is expected.
However, leaching of pesticides is
not likely to represent a-s1gnif-~"
icant loss with normal application
—i rates in most management practices.
ro __
Pollutant Changes Erosion will be reduced slightly See research findings for sed-
in Media: Soil iment.
Pollutant Changes No change.
in Media: Air
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 2. Conservation Tillage Subtrend: 2.1 No-till
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT T95F2010 Factors/Rationale
(Soil-Sediment) +2 +3 isodiment; low E; tend to tspecies diversity
Aquatic (Pesticide -1 -1 pesticide use t; pesticide concentrations could increase
residues) ~"~~
Terrestrial 0 0 crop residues t; erosion; negative effect on non-target animals
Human Health 0 0 pesticide levels still within safety limits; no effect
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Aquatic and terrestrial effects are both beneficial and adverse. Aquatic systems will benefit from reduced turbidity and
increased species diversity. However, pesticide residues in surface water could potentially be increased with no-till
and create adverse effects in the aquatic ecosystem. Increased pesticide use can also have adverse effects on non-target
terrestrial life. Retention of crop residues and reductions in erosion will be beneficial terrestrial effects. Human
health effects will not be significant since pesticide residues in surface water should still be within safety limits
even if they increase slightly with no-till.
(2) Research needs:
a. Further research and education is needed for the optimum use of fertilizer and pesticides with no-tillage practices.
b. The effect of increased pesticide use with no-till on pesticide losses to surface water should be determined.
c. Continued research is needed to develop and improve pesticides that are less toxic to non-target organisms.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) vhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 2.1 Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend; 2. Conservation Tillage
Subtrend: 2.1 No-tillage
Croo Production
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Approximately 2.6% of all cropped
land was no-till in 1977. While
this practice is expected to in-
crease to limited use in 2010,
current projections (up to 55% of
crops under no-till in 2010) seem
high. Extensiveness may only be
10-20% in 2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
Panel I: 1976 __!_, 1985 1 . 2010 _2_
Panel 2: 1976 1 , 1935 1 , 2010 1 .
2. No-till is estimated at 7.9 million
acrjs for 1977 (2.6%).
3. Percent of cropland zero tilled
may reach 55% by 2010 (10% by
1985).
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture. 200 pp.. 1977.
2. "No-till Farmer, Milwaukee,
Wisconsin, March, 1977.
3. U.S. Congress, "Alternative
Futures for U.S. Agriculture,"
Committee Print, 94th Congress,
1st Session, Sept. 1975.
Productivity Productivity can remain unchanged,
increase by 10% or decrease by 12%.
The type of crop, climate, and soil
will dictate the productivity values.
Multicropping practices will Increase
with no-till, resulting in Increased
productivity.
4. Yield reductions of 12% with no-till
alone were found.
5. No significant decrease 1n pro-
ductivity.
6. 10% increase in productivity on
soils with good drainage. No In-
crease on soils with poor drainage.
7. Botli increased and decreased yields
are shown for no till.
8. Yield response by no till is
affected by crop properties, soils,
climates, and pesticide effective-
ness. Multicropping is enhanced
by no till and could lead to pro-
duction Increases. Other land,
maintained under permanent cover,
can be brought Into production.
4. Putman, J., Stipe, S., and McDivitt,
J., A Summary of the Linear Pro-
gramming Analysis for the Maunee
Level B River Basin Study, pre-
liminary working paper, 120 pp.,
1977.
5. Johnson, H., Shrader, W.D., and
Timmons, J. F., "Regional Develop-
ment and Management of Land and
Water Resources within Iowa," on-
going research, Agric. Exp. Station,
Ames, Iowa, 1976.
6. "No-till is profitable on many soil
types," Crops and Soils 27(9): 7-9,
1975.
7. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. En-
vironmental Protection Agency, Con-
Lrol of Water Pollution from Crop-
land. Volume 1, Report No. ARS-H-5-
1, Washington, D.C., 1975.
8. Reference #3.
Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use in-
creases by 15%, insecticide use by
11%. An estimated 5 million acres
of land could be shifted to crop
production with no-till and reduced
till methods. Labor costs are re-
duced. More water will be conserved
with no-till, as much as 2 Inches
per year.
9. Fertilizer and herbicide use in-
creese 15%, insecticide use in-
creases by 11%.
10. Fertilizer and herbicide use will
Increase. An estimated 5 million
acres of land could be shifted to
crop production with no till and
reduced tillage. Labor will de-
crease.
9. Reference 14.
10. Reference 13.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 2.1. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental Research
Effects Conclusions Findings
11. Increased N and pesticide re-
References
11. Reference #7.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water - Sediment
Nutrients
ro
on
Pesticides
Sediment reductions of 50-902!
will result.
While large soil loss reductions -••
will tend to reduce nutrient losses,
fertilizer use will increase by 15%.
There will probably still tend to be
reductions in total nutrient loss,
but reduction will not be propor-
tional to reductions in soil loss.
N content of soil may also increase
from weathering of crop residues.
Effect of no till on pesticide losses
is not well documented. Loss to sur-
face water is greater when the com-
pound 1s surface applied and not in-
corporated in the soil, and 11% more
insecticides and 15% more herbicides
will be used for no-till. While re-
ductions of pesticides in surface
water could occur, current research
does not prove this. Increased use
and surface application, even with
reduced soil loss with no-till, could
even cause slight increases in pes-
ticide losses.
12. Sediment will be reduced by
58-69%.
13. Soil loss can be reduced an aver-
age of 502. Individual studies
with no till show soil losses re-
duced up to 985!.
14. Reductions up to 95% with no-till.
Reductions will be less with in-
creasing slopes and certain soils.
15. Transfer of pesticides into run-
off water is greater when the com-
pound is surface-applied than when
it is incorporated.
16. The environmental effect of no-
till and increased pesticide use
is not known. No till will play
an important part 1n reducing soil
loss, but in contrast, laws and
regulations relating to pesticide
use could discourage further reduc-
tions in tillage.
12. Reference #4.
13. Reference #3.
14. Reference 17.
15. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.H., and
Swank, R.R., "Transport, Detox-
ification, Fate, and Effects of
Pesticides in Soil and Water En-
vironments," pp. 48-78. In: Land
Application of Waste Materials,
Soil Cons. Soc. Am., Iowa, 1976.
16. Reference #3.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water
Nitrates in ground water will show
no change to slight increases.
Pesticide loss to ground water
will not be significantly changed
with no-till practices.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Erosion losses will be decreased
50-90%.
See research finding on sediment.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 2.1. (Continued)
Page 3
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Residues
ro
01
Crop residues will increase which
may result in increased N loss to
the soil or available for runoff.
Additionally, residues may provide
a hiding place for pests and In-
crease the incidence of pests.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
With some pesticides, increased
volatilization will occur with
surface applications. The vapor
pressure, molecular weight, and
other properties of a pesticide
will determine the extent of va-
porization.
17. Survace application subjects the
pesticide to potential photo-
degradation, and a greater poten-
tial for volatilization.
17. Reference #15.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 2, Conservation Tillage Subtrend: 2.2 Reduced tillage
Ecological Effect Rating If
TYPE OF EFFECT W? M^ Factors/Rationale
(Soil -sediment) +2 +3 less effective than no-till, but higher E values
Aquatic (Pesticide -1 -1 potential for t pesticides in water _
residues) -
Terrestrial 0 _ 0_ improved soil; tpesticide use on non-target organisms
Human Health 0 0 pesticide residue levels still within safety limits
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Reduced tillage (with crop residues remaining) is less effective than no-till in reducing soil loss, but extensiveness of
reduced tillage will be greater. Therefore, the intensity of ecological effects are comparable for the two practices.
Sediment reductions will reduce turbidity and increase species diversity. However, the potential for increased pesticide
residues in surface water could have adverse effects on the aquatic ecosystem. Crop residues remaining on the soil and
decreased soil loss are beneficieal to the terrestrial system, but increased pesticide use will have adverse effects on
non-target organisms. Human health effects will not be significant.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research should determine the optimum amounts of residue to leave on surface and to incorporate into the soil
with various climatic conditions, soils, and tillage practices.
b. Research is needed to determine the long term effect of conservation tillage on soil integrity.
c. The effect of increased pesticide use with reduced tillage on pesticide losses to surface water needs to be
investigated.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 2.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 2. Conservation Tillage
Subtrend: 2.2 Reduced Tillage
Crop Production
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
ro
CD
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1977, an estimated 58.8 million
acres (19% of total cropped acres)
will be reduced tilled. An addi-
tional 40 million acres will be
classified as less tilled. Less
till includes chisel plowing, disc^
ing once Instead of twice, and
planting in rough ground.
In 2010, a total of 40% of all crop-
land may be classified as reduced
tilled.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-
Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010
Panel 2: 1976
1985 1 ; 2010
2. Reduced till will be used on 58.8
million acres in 1977.
3. In 2010, 55% of cropland may be no
tilled and 40% reduced tilled.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume I, 200 pp.. 1977.
2. "No-till Farmer", Milwaukee,
Wisconsin, March 1977.
3. U.S. Congress, "Alternative
Futures for U.S. Agriculture" and
"Minimum Tillage," Comnittee Print
94th Congress, 1st Session, Sept.
1975.
Productivity Productivity can remain unchanged,
increase or decrease with reduced
tillage. Hulticropping practices
will tend to increase with reduced
till, causing increased productivity
per acre. Not all crops or soil
types are suited to reduced tillage.
4. With reduced till alone, production
will decrease an average of 9.5%.
Witi' contour and reduced till to-
gether, yields will decrease an
average of 16.5%.
5. Productivity with reduced till is
variable with different crops and
soils. Multicropping ?ractices will
increase with reduced till resulting
in increased productivity for those
acres.
6. Crop yields with reduced tillage
are as good as, and sometimes higher
than, those with plow-based systems.
4. Putman, J., Stipe, $., and
McDivitt, J., A Summary of the
Linear Programmjng Analysis for
the Maumee Level B River Basin
Study, preliminary working paper,
T20pp., 1977.
5. Reference #3.
6. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,
Control of Water Pollution From
Cropland, Volume 1, Report No.
ARS-H-5-1, Washington, D.C.. 1975.
Resource Use Fertilizer use will Increase
slightly. Herbicide use 1s up
(0.6%) and insecticide use in-
creases by 8.6%. An estimated 5
million acres of land will be shifted
to crop production with reduced and
no-tillage methods. Labor output
will decrease. Energy to plant
crops decrease, but increased
energy will be used in manufacture
of Increased fertilizers and in-
secticides. Some soil moisture
will be conserved with reduced
tillage.
7. Fertilizer use decreases 5%, insec- 7. Reference #4.
tlside use increases by 8.6%, and
herbicide use increases slightly,
0.57,.
8. Fertilizer use and pesticide use 8. Reference #5.
increase with reduced tillage
methods. More land may be con-
verted to agriculture with reduced
and no-till practices (an estimated
5 ml!1Ion acres).
9. Fertilizer and pesticide use will 9. Reference #6.
Increase.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 2.2. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water Sediment
Nutrients
Pesticides
Sediment will be reduced an average
of 14%. Reduced tillage Is less
effective than no-till in control-
ling soil loss.
There will probably be reductions in
total nutrient loss to surface water,
but reduction will not be proportional
to reductions in soil loss
Effect of reduced tillage on pes-
ticide loss is not well documented.
Loss to surface water is greater
when a pesticide 1s surface applied
and total pesticide use is 9% greater
for reduced till. While reductions
of pesticides 1n surface water could
occur, there 1s not enough research
data to support this.
10. Sediment will be reduced by 14%.
11. Conservation tillage is less
effective than no-till in reduc-
ing soil less.
12. Transfer of pesticides into run-
off water is greater when compound
is surface applied. More pesti-
cide residues are lost in runoff
water than in soil sediment loss.
13. The environmental effects of re-
uuced tillage on pesticide res-
idues 1s not known.
10. Reference #4.
11. Reference #6.
12. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and
Swank, R.R., "Transport, detox-
ification, fate, and effects of
pesticides in soil and water en-
vironments," pp. 48-78. In: Land
Application of Waste Materials,
Soil Cons. Soc. Am., Iowa, 1976.
13. Reference #3.
MD
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water
Nitrates in ground water will show
no change to slight increases.
Pesticide levels in ground water
will not be significantly changed
with reduced tillage.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Erosion losses decrease an estimated
14!!. Wind erosion losses will also
decrease slightly. Crop residues
increase,which lead to increased N
available to the soil for leaching
and runoff. Residues on soil also
increase the incidence of pests.
See research findings on sediment.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: A1r
Surface applications of some pes-
ticides types leads to increased
volatilization losses. The vapor
pressure, molecular weight, and
other chemical properties of a
pesticide will determine the extent
of vaporization.
Surface applications of pesticides
subject tne pesticide to a greater
potential for volatilization.
14. Reference #12.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.1 Furrow basins
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT B5F2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic -2 -3 return flow into surface water, -(-nutrients, tsediment, etc.
Terrestrial -2 -3 tsalinity build-up in soil
Human Health -1 ~1 4-in drinking water quality; potential for tnitrates
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Furrow basins may be the least efficient method of irrigation. Nutrients, sediment, pesticide residues in surface water
tend to be greater for this irrigation method. For these reasons, aquatic, terrestrial and human health effects were
^ judged adverse. (If return flow is controlled, Subtrend 3.4, then aquatic effects would be 0.) Human health effects
0 result from decreased quality of drinking water, and potential increases in nitrates.
(2) Research needs:
a. The effects of salinity on human health and on animal populations needs further investigation.
b. Investigation of irrigation methods and quality of return flows is needed.
c. The feasibility of water renovation through filtering and desalting should be determined.
d. The feasibility of diverting return flows to wildlife preserves or other productive use should be
investigated.
\J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 3.1. Environmental assessment cf selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application
Subtrend: ~.l Furrow Basins
Crop Production
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness In 1969, 50? of Irrigated cropland
used furrow basins. Extensiveness
in 1976 is not known. Evaluation
workshop ratings indicate that signif-
icant improvement is not likely to
occur with improved furrow basin
management.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings—
Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 0 ; 2010 _0_
(Reflects improvement with use of
furrov basins).
2. In 1969, 19.2. million acres (50*
of all irrigated crops) were irri-
gated by furrow basins.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume I, 200 pp., 1977.
2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of
Agriculture, 1969, Volume 5,
Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic
Summary, 1971.
Productivity Yields from Irrigated croplands are
higher than U.S. average yields.
Research data showing specific yield
increases contributed by furrow bas-
in irrigation is not available. :
3. Yield from irrigated cropland is
115 higher in the East and 32%
higher in the West than U.S.
averages.
3. Reference #2.
Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide, and insec-
ticide use remain unchanged. Water
use for furrow irrigation is 2.06
acre feet of water per acre. Ef-
ficiency of furrow basin Irrigation
is 35%.
4. Fui row basin use 2.06 acre feet
of water per acre.
5. Efficiency of furrow basin irri-
gation is 35%, less than that of
sprinkler or drip irrigations.
4. Reference #2.
5. Jensen, M.E., Scientific Irrigation
Scheduling for Salinity Control of
Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. En-
vironmental Protection Agency,
1975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Certain practices must be used with
furrow basins to reduce sediment and
associated sediment materials (nu-
trlants, pesticides). These prac-
tices are as follows:
1. Use only on flat or very gentle
slopes;
2. Soil should have low Infiltration
rates;
3. Land grading is essential;
4. Apply water at slower rates to
reduce erosion, water logging,
and improve efficiency.
5. Furrow stream flow should be
minimal;
6. Use of benching, diagonal, or
contour furrows will reduce
erosion;
7. Slopes of furrows should be very
gentle;
8. Lining of furrow drops with con-
crete flumes or other material
reduce soil loss.
9. Irrigations should be scheduled.
6. Landgrading is essential for furrow
irrigation. To avoid excessive
erosion 1n irrigating with furrows,
the slope of the furrows should not
exceed 2%. Contour and benched fur-
rows reduce erosion potential. Con-
crete-lined ditches, or concrete
or metal flumes should be used for
conveying water down slopes to re-
cess sediment losses.
7. Furrows should be used on fairly
flat land with soil that has low
infiltration rates. Application
rates should not be too rapid and
minimal furrow stream flow should
be practiced.
8. Current Irrigation practices are
not efficiency. Efficiency In-
creases with scheduling, rate of
application, and amount of water
applied. With furrow basins, 1t
Is difficult to measure amount of
water applied.
6. Booker, L.J., Surface Irrigation,
FAO, Italy, 1974:
7. Jenke, A.L., Evaluation of Salinity
Created by irrigation Return Flows,
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 127 pp., 1974.
8. Jensen, M.E., Scientific Irrigation
Scheduling for Salinity Control of
Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. En-
vironmental Protection Agency.
91 pp., 1975.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 3.1. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
These practices for furrow basins
will reduce sediment loss and asso-
ciated nutrient losses greatly in
some areas. However with some lands,
it is virtually impossible to reduce
sediment in furrow irrigation to the
extent sediments and other suspended
solids in return flow will meet water
quality standards. In general, sed-
iment and associated losses are
greater for furrow basins than
sprinkler or subsurface irrigations.
9. Although sediment yields can be
reJtced in the Yahima Valley with
improved soil and water applica-
tion methods, it is still virtual-
ly impossible to reduce erosion
in the furrow irrigation system
to the extent that sediment and
related contaminants in return
flows will meet water quality
standards for that region.
9. Carl He, B.L., "Sediment Control
in Yahima Valley." In: Managing
Irrigated Agriculture to Improve
Water Quality, Proc. of National
Conf. on Managing Irrigated Agri-
culture to Improve Water Quality,
Colorado State Univ., 1972.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water
CO
PO
Reductions in ground water and asso-
ciated pollutants can be obtained
with furrow basins. However, these
reductions are associated with the
management practices listed above.
If these practices are followed,
ground water pollution from furrow
irrigation will be comparable to
other irrigation methods. However,
research data shows they are not
routinely followed, and considerable
ground water pollution does occur.
Improved furrow irrigation will not
significantly reduce ground water
pollutants without scheduling, and
improved irrigation facilities.
10. The most abused practice in irri-
gation is excessive water appli-
cations and tends to be more
serious with furrow irrigation
that sprinkler irrigation schedul-
ing also reduces potential ground
water pollution, but 1t is not
routinely practiced. (See 3.5
Irrigation Scheduling for Poten-
tial Benefits.)
10. References #7 and
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Salinity tends to be greater for
furrow irrigation compared to
sprinkler irrigation.
11. Salinity is greater for furrow
irrigation compared to sprinkler
irrigation.
12. Increastd spot salinity occurs
with furrow basins, because of
low spots and high spots in the
land. Soluble salts tend to con-
centrate in the surface and cen-
ter of beds causing decreased
yields.
11. Salinity in Water Resources,
Proc. of the 15th Annual Western
Resources Conference at the Univ.
of Colorado, Merriam, publishers,
1974.
12. Reference #6.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Air
No Change.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
CO
CO
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1985
-1
-1
_0_
Effect Ratinq I/
2010
-1
-1
,-1
Subtrend: 3'
land grading + furrow
due to salinity
long term effect from
.2 Land grading
Factors /Rationale
basins = -(-pollutants
t nitrate concentration
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Land grading will be used with furrow basins, thus pollutants from furrow basins will decrease in intensity. Salt
accumulation will be less when land grading is used with furrow basins. There is still a long-term effect of nitrate
concentrations increasing in surface waters even with land grading with furrow basins.
(2) Research needs:
a. The effects of salinity on human health and on animal populations needs further investigation.
b. Investigation of irrigation methods and quality of return flows is needed.
c. The feasibility of water renovation through filtering and desalting should be determined.
d. The feasibility of diverting return flows to wildlife preserves or other productive use should be
investigated.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 3.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application
Subtrend: 3.2 Land Grading (analyzed as an irrigation practice only)
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Land grading is Important in irri-
gated crop production and will in-
crease in use by 2010. Actual ex-
tens Iveness in irrigated crop pro-
duction is unknown.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings—
Panel ?.: 1976 4 ; 1985 5 ; 2010
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977.
Productivity Productivity will increase with the
use of land grading. The increase
will depend on the crop, soil, irri-
gation practices, and other crop
management practices.
2. Land grading tends to reduce con-
centrated areas of salinity seeps
and increase crop yields.
3. Waterlogging of land decreases
with land grading and increases
land productivity.
2. Booker, L.G., Surface Irrigation,
FAO, 1974.
3. Jenke, A.L. Evaluation of Salinity
Created by Irrigation Return Flows,
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 127 pp., 1974.
Resource Use Total irrigation water 1n furrow
basins can be reduced up to 40%
with land grading and water measur-
ing devices. Reduction of total
water applied will reduce the solu-
ble fertilizer requirement. Pes-
ticide requirement will remain un-
changed to a slight decrease.
Energy and labor requirement in-
crease with land grading.
4. Reductions up to 40-50% 1n water 4. Reference #3.
use may occur following leveling
and the installation of simple
water measuring devices. Decreased
water use will decrease soluble
fertilizer requirements.
5. Labor requirement for furrow irri- 5. Reference #2.
gation is greater witl, land grading
and other management practices.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Elimination of excessive water appli-
cation in irrigation causes decreases
in soil erosion, nutrient and pes-
ticide losses.
6. Excessive water In irrigation In-
creases sediment losses.
7. Land grading decreases soil losses.
6. Reference #3.
7. Reference # 2.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water
Slight reductions in ground water
and associated pollutants will
occur with lano grading.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Concentrated salinity areas, re-
sulting from high and low spots 1n
Irrigated land are reduced.
Soluble salts tend to concentrate
1n the surface and center of beds
(irrigation). Landing grading
levels the land and reduces spot
salinity.
8. Reference #2.
Pollutant Changes
In Media: A1r
No Change.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.3 Sprinklers
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 19"%? EEOi Factors/Rationale
Aquatic -1 -2 Aground water supply (regional)
Terrestrial -1 -1 -wildlife habitat; tsoil salinity
Human Health 0 0_ potential for t nitrates is less
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Aquatic and terrestrial effects are adverse with sprinkler irrigation. Groundwater supplies can and are seriously
reduced with sprinkler systems. Surface water pollution will still occur with sprinklers, but will be less for
sprinklers than for furrow basins. Soil salinity will continue with sprinklers, and wildlife habitat is destroyed with
sprinkler system installation (fence rows are taken out). The potential for increased nitrate concentrations in
ground water is less with this practice, so human health effects will not be significant.
(2) Research needs:
a. The use of effluents in sprinkler irrigation should be investigated.
b. Research on efficient irrigation practices should include investigation of ground water depletions.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 3.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 3. Imrpo/ed Water Application
Subtrend: 3.3 Sprinklers
Crop Production
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1969, 7.2 million acres (18.8% of
all irrigated cropland) used sprink-
ler irrigation. Extensiveness in
1976 1s not known, but estimated to
have increased since 1969.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-
Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 2 .
2. Sprinkler irrigation was used on
7.2 million acres in 1969.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Sifv1_-
culture, 200 pp., 1977.
2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of
Agriculture, 1969, Volume 5,
Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic
Summary, 1971.
Productivity Yields from irrigated cropland are
higher t.han U.S. average yields.
Use of highly saline water in sprink-
lers can leave toxic, often lethal
salt deposits on leaves and cause'
sprinklers to clog. Additionally,
some crops subject to fungi are
aggravated by high-moisture condi-
tions with sprinkler irrigation.
These conditions will reduce yields.
3. Yield from irrigated cropland is
11% higher in the East and 32%
higher in the West than U.S.
average.
4. Highly saline waters can leave
tcx c deposits on leaves. High
moisture conditions of sprinkler
irrigation can aggrevate diseases
as fungi in some crops.
3. Reference #2.
4. Jenke, A.L., Evaluation of Salinity
Created by Irrigation Return Flows,
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 127 pp., 1974.
Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicides, and insec-
ticide use remain constant. Sprink-
ler irrigation uses 1.39 acre feet
of water per acre, considerably less
than furrow irrigation. Drip irri-
gation (0.5% of all irrigated acres
in 1980) is even more efficient than
sprinkler irrigation. Efficiency
with sprinklers range from 49-58%
efficiency. Initial costs and energy
requirements are higher for sprinkler
than furrow methods.
5. Sprinkler-irrigation uses 1.39
acre feet of water per acre.
6. Sprinkler efficiency in twelve
event: ranged from 49-58% effi-
ciency. Drip irrigation is the
most efficient irrigation method
but only 0.5% of all irrigated
acres will use this practice In
198C.
5. Reference #2.
6. Jensen, M. E., Scientific Irriga-
tion Scheduling for Salinity Con-
trol of Irrigation Return Flows,
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 91 pp., 1975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Potential soil loss and associated
pollutants can be reduced with
sprinkler irrigation If certain
practices are used. These practices
are as follows:
1. Use on soils with high infiltra-
tion rates. It can be used on
sloping lands with rough and thin
soils.
2. Application rate should be slow.
3. Know the amount of Irrigation
w^ter applied.
4. Use irrigation scheduling for
maximum efficiency and to reduce
potential soil loss.
5. Do not irrigate with sprinkler on
very windy days.
7. Slow application of water by sprink-
ler methods reduce erosion. Sprink-
ler can be used on soils with high
water uptake, on sloping lands, and
on rough, thin soils. Irrigation
scheduling will improve sprinkler
efficiency and reduce erosion po-
tential and surface runoff.
8. Sprinkler systems tend to reduce
excessive water applications, thus
reducing runoff potential. It 1s
easier to measure amount of water
applied by sprinkler methods.
7. Reference #4.
8. Reference #6.
Continued
-------
Exhibit 3.3. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water
CO
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
In general surface runoff, soil
loss and associated pollutants are
less for sprinkler irrigation
compared to furrow.
While ground water pollutants tend
to be less with sprinkler irrigation
compared to furrow, potential pollu-
tants can be further reduced with
irrigation scheduling, and other
efficiency practices (See 3.5 Irri-
gation scheduling for details).
Sprinkler irrigation cannot be re-
lied upon to significantly reduce
ground pollutants without these
practices.
9. Traditional methods to improve
irrigation management will not
result in futther changes in
irrigation management unless
water costs increase substantial-
ly. Over the past 20 years, irri-
gation efficiency has not increased.
Improvement of salinity problems,
anc1 ground water problems will de-
pend upon irrigation scheduling
ano improved irrigation facili-
ties.
9. Reference # 6.
Salinity tends to be slightly less
for sprinkler irrigation compared to
furrow. However, each year productive
agriculture land is lost to salinity
regardless of irrigation method.
10. Salinity is less for sprinkler
irrigation compared to furrow
irrigation.
11. Each year productive agriculture
land is lost to salinity. Crop
production is reducea on one-
quarter of the irrigated acreage
in Western U.S.
10. Salinity in Water Resources. Proc.
of the 15th Annual Western Re-
sources Conf. at the Univ. of Colo.
Merriam publishers, 1974.
11. Law, J.P., and others, "The need
for implementing irrigation return
flow quality control." In: Manag-
ing Irrigated Agriculture to Im-
prove Water Quality, Proc. of the
Nat. Conf. on Managing Irrigated
Agriculture to Improve Water
Quality, 1972.
No significant changes will result.
On windy days, water loss can occur,
but will not adversely affect the
air.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.4 Recycling & controlling tail water
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT T§55"2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +2 +3 4-water requirements; 4-pollutants in water
Terrestrial -1 -1 disposal of tailwater pollutants; soil salinity not affected
Human Health +1 -+l assumes proper processing, further water degradation will not occur
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Aquatic effects will be beneficial with control of tailwater. Irrigation water requirements will be reduced and
pollutants in surface water will be decreased. Terrestrial effects are adverse since soil salinity will not be
w significantly affected with this practice, and terrestrial pollutants may potentially be increased with the disposal
00 of tailwater pollutants. Minor beneficial human health effects will result with proper processing of tailwater.
(2) Research needs:
a. Continued research is needed on the proper treatment of tailwater and on the disposal of tailwater and
subsurface drainage wastes.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) hhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 3.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application
Subtrend: 3.4 Recycling and Controlling Tailwater
Crop Production
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Extensiveness 1n 1976 is not known.
However, based on workshop rating,
this practice will increase to im-
portant levels by 2010.
Control of the total Irrigation
return flow (surface tailwater
and subsurface drainage waters)
will be considered in this subtrend.
1. Evaluation Workshop Rating-
Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4
1. Cev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977.
Productivity
Tailwate" will have increased
concentrations of sediment,
nutrients, and pesticides; how-
ever, productivity will not be
significantly changed with proper
treatment of recycled tailwater.
2. Concentration of salt, and N03-N
is greatly increased in tailwater.
However, at times the chemical
quality of subsurface drainage
water is better than that of the
irrigation water diverted at fur-
ther points down river for irri-
gation.
3. Concantration of salts and nutri-
ents is several times greater in
ground water than in initial Irri-
gation water.
4. Concentration of salts in return
flow can be greatly increased.
2. Carter, D.L., "Irrigation return
flows in southern Idaho," pp. 47-
53. In: Managing Irrigated Agri-
culture to Improve Water Quality,
Proc. of Nat. Conf. on Managing
Irrigated Agriculture to Improve
Water Quality, 1972.
3. Oenke, A.L., Evaluation of Salinity
Created by Irrigation Return Flows,
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 127 pp., 1974.
4. Salinity in Water Resources, Proc.
of the 15th Annual Western Re-
sources Conf. at the Univ. of
Colorado, MerHman publi$hers,
1973.
Resource Use
Fertilizer, insecticide, and her-
bicide use remains constant. Water
use can be decreased as much as 30%
with reuse of return flows 1n Irri-
gation.
5. About 3556 of applied irrigation 5. Reference #3.
water is return flow.
6. 50^ of to*.al input water becomes 6. Reference #2.
subsurface drainage water.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Sediment, and associated nutrients
will be trapped if surface water is
collected. This reduces sediment
and pollutant loadings of rivers 1f
the water is not returned to the
rivers. Surface runoff water qual-
ity will have increased sediment,
but salt concentration does not dif-
fer from Initial Irrigation water.
7. Surface runoff quality did not dif-
fer from that of the irrigation
water except for sediment concen-
tration.
8. Nutrients, pesticides, sediment,
and salts will be c nfined to the
field by control of tailwater.
7. Reference #2.
8. Reference # 3.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water
Cont"il of ground water can signif-
icantly decrease the pollutant
loadings of a river. The ground
water will have high salt concen-
trations. Before this water can be
9. Subsurface drainage water should be
treated, diluted, or diverted to
sinks, and settling basins before
reuse.
9. Reference #3.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 3.4. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Ground Water
(Continued)
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
Conclusions
diverted back to the river or to
agriculture, it should be diluted
with large amounts of incoming
water, or diverted to sinks or
settling basins. This will re-
duce sediment and salt concentra-
tions to reasonable limits.
Soil salinity will not be affected
by recycling and controlling tall-
water.
No Change.
Research
Findings
10. Recovered drainage waters can
readily be returned to the irriga-
t^on supply after settling, treat-
ment for pollutant removal, or
diluted to minimize the detri-
mental effects.
References
10. Law, J.P. and others, "The need
for implementing irrigation re-
turn flow quality control," pp.
1-17. In: Managing Irrigated
Agriculture to Improve Water
Quality, Proc. of Nat. Conf. on
Managing Irrigated Agriculture
to Improve Water Quality, 1972.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 3. improved Water Application
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1985
+1
0
0
Effect Rating I/
2010
+1
+1
0
Subtrend: 3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency
Factors/Rationale
-(•water use; ^-pollutants
small 4- soil salinity
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Aquatic effects will be beneficial in 1985 a-nd 2010 from reductions in water use, and small reductions in surface water
pollutants. Minor beneficial terrestrial effects may result in 2010 with samll decreases in soil salinity. Human
health will not be significantly affected with this practice.
(2) Research needs:
a. Continued research is needed on irrigation scheduling and other irrigation efficiency practices.
_!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 3.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application
Subtrend: 3.5 Irrigation Scheduling and Efficiency
Crop Production
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1974, less than 15! of all irri-
gated cropland had professional
irrigation scheduling. Irrigation
scheduling will increase greatly by
2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
Panel 2: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 _5
2. 382,000 acres of irrigated crop-
land used some professional
irrigation scheduling in 1974.
1. Oev. Planning & Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of Trends
in Agriculture and Silviculture,
200 pp., 1977.
2. Jensen, M.E., Scientific Irrigation
Scheduling for Salinity Control of
Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. En-
vironmental Protection Agency, 91
pp., 1975.
Productivity
Scheduling can increase crop yields
significantly.
3. Major benefits to the farm operator
witn irrigation scheduling would
be improved crop yields and quality.
4. Crop yields are expected to in-
ert ise with irrigation scheduling.
3. Reference #2.
4. Jenke, A. L., Evaluation of Salin-
ity Created by Irrigation Return
Flows, U.S. Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, 127 pp., 1974.
Resource Use Fertilizer use would decrease with
irrigation scheduling. Herbicide
and insecticide use will remain con-
stant. Water use will decrease 10%
with scheduling and up to an addi-
tional 20? with lining of irrigation
conveyance ditches.
5. Irrigation efficiencies will Improve
an average of 10% with scheduling.
6. Proper irrigation scheduling could
increase water effici-icy 10-15%.
Estimated water losses by canal
seepage range from 13-48% with an
estimated average of 20%.
7. Lining on canals reduce seepage
losses from 5-10% of total water
to 1-2%. Research data shows ex-
cessive irrigation by many farmers.
5. Reference #2.
6. Reference #4.
7. Skogerboe, G.V. and Walker, W.R.,
"Salinity control measures in the
Grand Valley," pp. 123-136. In:
Managing Irrigated Agriculture to
Improve Water Quality, Proc. of
Nat. Conf. on Managing Irrigated
-gric. to Improve Water Quality,
1972.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Surface runoff will decrease causing
decreases in sediment and asso-
ciated nutrients. With some soils
and irrigation techniques, reductions
can be significant.
Salt concentration in surface runoff
is comparable to original irrigation
water. Thus, no reductions will re-
sult for salts.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 3.5. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water
CO
Salt concentrations In ground water
can be reduced significantly 1f con-
veyance losses are eliminated. With
irrigation systems that allow even
application, scheduling can reduce
salt loads in the return flow. Other
irrigation systems may not show a
decrease of salts in the return
flow.
8. Salt concentrations in return flows
can be reduced with lining of con-
veyance canals.
9. Salt concen .rations in return
flows may or may not be reduced
significantly, depending on type
of irrigation system and soil
type. Improved irrigation facil-
ities are needed with scheduling
1n some areas.
8. Reference 17.
9. Reference #2.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Soil salinity decreases with Irriga-
tion scheduling. Water use for
leaching of salts is included 1iv
scheduling. Application rates and
leaching times are scheduled for
maximum salt leaching.
10. Irrigation efficiency includes
water for leaching to control
soil salinity. Leaching and appli-
cation rates are scheduled for
maximum efficiency. With more
frequent applications, salt con-
centrations are not as likely to
build up to dangerous levels in
the soil.
10. Reference 12, Reference 14.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
No Change.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.1 Weather resistance
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1955
0
0
0
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
0
Factors/Rationale
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
The effect is not expected to be significant on any of the ecosystems. Some marginal land will be brought into
production; on the other hand, multicropping can be expected to increase slightly. These will tend to cancel each other
out in the overall impact on runoff.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research Involving these improvements should include investigation of environmental impacts.
_!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 4.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants
Subtrend: 4.1 Weather resistance
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Gradual improvements are being made
with weather resistance In crops, but
no major developments are expected
for the next decade, at least. Re-
search 1s on-going, but hampered by
lack of additional research money.
1. Evaluation Workshop ratings
Panel 1: 1976 4 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 5
Panel 2: 1976 I ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1
2. Research for weather resistant
crops continues. Progress has been
madfc, but no major developments are
exptcted for another decade.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Implications of Trends in Agri-
culture and Silviculture, Vol. 1,
200, pages, 1977.
National Academy of Sciences,
Climate and Food, Washington,
D.C., 1976
Productivity Productivity could be greatly In-
creased with weather resistance.
Plants that can withstand severe
drought or prolonged cold periods
would provide the farmer with multl-
cropping opportunities with sus-
tained yields. Short-growing sea-
son plants could be used for cli-
mates that currently have summers
too short for crops.
High yielding, short-season soybeans 3. Reference tZ
thai could grow further north in-
creesed Minnesotas soybean production
from 2% to 8% of U.S. total. In 1975,
dro.ght tolerant corn hybrids, main-
tained yields during severe drought.
Semi dwarf wheat has improved water ef-
ficiency which maintains yields under
stress.
4.
Potential productivity will Increase 4.
greatly with development of climate
resistant crops.
National Academy of Sciences - World
Food and Nutrition Study, Hash.,D.C.,
Resource Use Until commercial use of weather
resistance crops increases, there
will be no increase in resource use.
By 2010 however, fertilizer and
pesticide use could increase 50%
or more, with year round cropping.
It 1s doubtful at this time 1f year
round cropping will occur in most
areas. Rather crops will be de-
veloped for normal cropping season
which are more resistant to weather
stresses. More land 1n unfavorable
climates could be brought Into
agriculture production by 2010
Pollutant changes 1n
Media
Pollutant changes are difficult to
evaluate. With single cropping,
there will be no change. Should
multicropplng Increase significantly
by 2010, pollutants would also In-
crease significantly.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.2 Salt resistance
Ecological Effect Rating _!/
TYPE OF EFFECT TM52010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic 0 -1 Disruption of brackish coastline
Terrestrial 0 -1 Loss of habitats on saline soils
Human Health 0 0
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
No significant effects are expected by 1985. Adverse effects of a minor nature can be anticipated on the aquatic and
terrestrial systems by 2010. Ths use of salt resistance plants and seed will permit cropping on the brackish coastline.
The resulting drainage will affect the brackish waters. Returning saline land to production will reduce.
(2) Research needs:
a. Environmental implications should be made a part of ongoing-research in this area.
_!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 4.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants
Subtrend: 4.2 !.alt resistance
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Current research data shows prog-
ress in breeding plants that are
resistant to high concentrations
of salt and that these plants will
be used commercially in the future.
Widespread commercial use 1s still
several years away.
1. Evaluation workshop ratings
Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1 .
Panel ?.: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 _; 2010 5 .
2. Research with salt resistant strains
of barley is promising.
3. Crop production based on sea-
water or other saline sources
is an attainable goal.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of Trends
in Agriculture and Silviculture,
Vol. I, 200 pages, 1977.
"Salt tolerant plants sought, Crops
and Soils,27(7) 19-20, 1975.
Rush, D.W., Norlyn, J.D., and Ep-
stein, E. "Salt-resistant crops
coming," Crops and Soils, 29(3):
7-9, 1976.
Productivity Productivity in saline areas would
increase, especially where salinity
build-up reduces crop yields or has
taken land out of agriculture pro-
duction. Currently technology is
developing salt resistant crops but
yield results show that these crops
are not feasible for commercial use
at this time.
4. First year trials of salt-resistant
barley crops grown under very un-
favorable conditions were 21% of
y1 'Id from irrigated barley. Re-
search people found these results
very encouraging.
4. Reference if3
Resource Use Fertilizer and pesticide use would
remain constant. Increased land
could be brought into production In
highly saline areas.
Pollutant Change 1n
Media
No change
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.3 Production efficiency
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 19E3 20lO
Factors/Rationale
Aquatic 0 -1 Increased fertilizer use
Terrestrial 0 0_ Assumes no increase in land cropped
Human Health 0 0
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/;
No significant effects are expected by 1985. Increased fertilizer requirements can expect to have adverse effects
—i of a minor nature on the aquatic system by 2010.
-P=.
oo
(2) Research needs:
a. Environmental implications should be made a part of ongoing research in this area.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 4.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 4. Inprovement of Seeds and Plants
Subtrend: 4.3 Production efficiency
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
-pa
UD
Extensiveness Substantial improvements In agri-
cultural production efficiency have
been made during the past two decades.
While research will continue to im-
prove production efficiency, it is
doubtful if comparable advances can
be obtained from such technology
improvements in the short-run future.
Further significant yield increases
will require greater photosynthetic
efficiency. Research continues on
photosynthesis process in plants.
Factors that control photosynthesis
are not well understood and until
these factors are found, progress
in production efficiency will be
slow.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings
Panel 1: 1976 _"_; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 .
Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 2 .
2. Great gains have been obtained with
crop production efficiency in last
decades. It is doubtful if compar-
able advances can be obtained from
technology improvements in the short-
term future.
3. Impressive yield increases in agri-
culture in past 25 years came from a
combination of new varieties, high
rati s of fertilization, high plant
populations, disease resistance, and
control of insects and weeds. Fur-
ther significant yield increases will
require photosynthetic efficiency
control.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages, 1977.
National Academy of Sciences,
Agricultural Production Efficiency,
Washington, D. C., 1975.
National Academy of Sciences.
World Food and Nutrition Study.
Washington, D.C., 1975.
Productivity Further productivity increases will
be the result of biochemical or
genetic control of plants photo-
synthesis process. Yields and en-
hanced crop quality will result from
improved production efficiency.
4. Control of photosynthesis in plants
is the key to increased yields and
food quality.
Reference #3
Pollutant Changes in
Media
No change
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.4 Disease, insect, and nematode resistant crops
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT IMF 2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +2 +4 Decrease in pesticide use
Terrestrial +1 +3
Human Health +1 +2 Less injuries associated with application
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Beneficial effects are expected to stem primarily from the decrease in pesticide use. The greatest benefits are ex-
pected to occur in the aquatic systems with less pesticide runoff in surface waters. The reduction in pesticide use
would reduce the likelihood of injuries associated with explication and reentry.
(2) Research needs:
a. Ongoing research should include investigations of the environmental impacts.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) vhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 4.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants
Subtrend: 4.4- Disease, insect, and nematode resistant crops
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Approximately 75* of all crop-
land is planted with seed va-
rieties that show resistance
to some disease or insect.
Research continues to develop
more resistant crops to replace
these with even more resistant
varieties. By 2010, some crops
will be very resistant to cer-
tain diseases and pests.
1. Evaluation Uorkshop Ratings 1.
Panel 1: 1976 _4_; 1985 4 ; 2010 _5_.
2. Seventy-five percent of U.S. crop-
land utilities resistant varieties 2.
(insect) developed during past 50
years. Research continues with al-
most all crop varieties to find or
improve resistance to insects.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1. 200 pages, 1977.
National Academy of Sciences,
Contemporary Pest Control Prac-
tices anc1 Prospects, Volume I,
Washington, D. C., 1975.
Productivity Productivity can Increase sub-
stantially with crops having in-
bred resistant to disease and
Insects.
3. Under greenbug attack, a new sorghum
variety had yields up to seven times
higher than susceptible sorghum var-
ieties. Seeds will be available 1n
1977 or 1978.
4. Current research with corn strains
resistant to the corn borer looks
very promising.
5. A new millet variety is resistant
to leaf spot disease and has 7-205!
more foliage than other millet va-
rieties. Yields were higher for a
variety of alfalfa resistant to stem
nematodes, downy mildew, and bac-
terial wilt.
6. Disease resistant crops have lead
tD increjsed crop yields.
3. "23 new sorghum breeding lines
from Texas," Crops and Soils
29(7): 23, 19777
4. Pardee, W. D., and Gracen, V. E.,
"Crops fight back, bred-1n in-
sect resistance," Crops and Soils
28(7): 8-9, 1976.
5. "Varieties, Crops and Soils
28(7): 23,19767
6. National Academy of Sciences,
World Food and Nutrition Study,
:,'ashington, D. C., 1975.
Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use
remains unchanged. Insecti-
cide use will decrease as more
insect disease resistant crop
varieties are developed. Crop
resistance 1s generally insuf-
ficient to control insects and
supplemental chemicals may have
to be used, but fewer treat-
ments are needed. There are
some exceptions where crops
are entirely resistant to In-
sects. Pesticide cost would be
reduced.
Supolemental applications of chem-
icals may need to be used with in-
sect resistant crops, but fewer
treatments are needed. Some crops
seen to be entirely disease resist-
ant and do not require supplemental
chemical pesticide applications.
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,
Control of Uater Pollution from
£rvpland, Vol. 1. Report No.ARS.
H-5-1, Washington. D.C., 1975.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 4.4. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes in
Media
en
Pesticide residues in water,
soil, and air will be reduced
as more insect resistance
crops are developed. De-
crease will be gradual since,
development of these crops
will be slowly evolving. By
2010, there could be substan-
tial reductions in pesticide
residues 1n the environment.
Soil and nutrient losses will
tend to remain unchanged. If
widespread yield increases
occur, over the crop yields
now obtained with chemical
pesticides, soil loss and
nutrient loss will decrease.
This decrease is a result of
high yielding crops reducing
surface run-off and ground
water losses.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls Subtrend: 5.1 & 5.2 Scouting-surface & remote sensing scouting
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 195?2010 " Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +1 +3 Reduced pesticide use
Terrestrial +1 +3 Reduced pesticide use
Human Health 0_ +1 Reduced reentry problems
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Beneficial effects are expected to stem primarily from reductions in pesticide use. The effects would be only minor
in 1935. By 2010, significant effects would occur in the aquatic and terrestrial systems.
(2) Research needs:
_!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 5.1 & 5.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls
Subtrends: 5.1 & 5.2. Scouting-surface and remote sensing scouting
p
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Use of scouting to identify
specific insect pests areas
and predict which crop areas
need chemical treatment is
very limited in 1976. Diag-
nostic and predictive methods
are not currently reliable for
pest control. By the time an
area has been identified as
having a potential pest prob-
lem, damage has often, already
occurred. Much research and
public education is needed
before this practice will be-
come a potential method to re-
duce chemical pesticides.
C71
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings
Surface scouting
Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 5 .
Remote sensing scouting
Panel 1: 1976 _T_; 1985 1 ; 2010 2 .
2. With present state of art, it is im-
possible to identify and predict
which field or area may or may not
be damaged by insects. Often fields
cannot be selected until insect
danage has already occurred. Cur-
rently pilot scouting programs exist
in Iowa and Illinois, which may prove
successful.
3: ,-armers often appear to be unable
or unwilling to base their pest
co.itrol decisions on complex calcu-
lations of the relationships between
pe;t infestations, yield losses, and
pesticide applications. They adopt
pe>t control program - that tend to
require regular and heavy use of
pesticides. Considerable research
is needed to accurately predict
pesticide losses.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1977.
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Farmers Pesticide Use
Decisions and Attitudes on
Alternation Crop Protection
Methods. 158 pages. 1974.
National Academy of Sciences,
Volume 1, Contemporary Pest
Control Practices and Pros-
pects, Wash., D.C. 1975.
Productivity Very limited research exists
for the success of scouting
programs to successfully pre-
dict which areas need to be
treated with pesticides.
Areas can show sustained
crop yields without use of
pesticides. Pilot scouting
programs made surveys for
several insects, found these
to be economic thresholds,
and no control was recom-
mended or applied. Crop
yields are assumed to be
comparable to treated areas.
Sometimes damage has al-
ready occurred by the time
a pest problem is Identified,
leading to decreased yields.
Some yield increases have
been attributed to decreased
use of hydrocarbon pesticides.
4. Pilot scouting programs determined
insect levels to be below the econ-
omic threshold, and no control was
recommended or applied.
Acres with decreased hydrocarbon use
since 1966 have shown Increased
yields, thus decrease in use did not
adversely affect yields. Attributing
the yield Increases to decreased
hydrocarbon use is questionable.
5. Crop yields were shown to Increase
with decreased hy.-i-ocarbon use.
Reference #2.
Casey, 0. E., Lacewell, R.D., and
Sterling W., "An example of econ-
omically feasible opportunities
for reducing pesticide use in
commerical agriculture," J. of
Environ Quality 4(1): 60-64TT975.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 5.1 & 5.2. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
en
en
Resource Use Fertilizer use and herbicide use
remain unchanged. It has been
determined that probably all her-
bicide applications are needed
for effective weed control. In
some areas, an estimated 40% of
all insecticides applied are not
needed in Illinois and 50% of all
chlorinated hydrocarbons were not
needed.
40% of all acres in Illinois treated
with insecticides did not need treat-
ment. At least 50% of all acres 1n
Iowa and Illinois treated with chlor-
inated hyd ocarbons did not need
treatment.
Use of herbicides was needed and
profitable on all acres treated.
6. Reference #2
Pollutant Changes
In Media
Pesticide residues in water, soil,
and air could greatly be reduced
with reliable scouting use. How-
ever, large reductions are not
likely to be seen until scouting
can prove itself as a control
method.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
en
CTi
Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls
Ecological Effect
lYPt Oh thhbCI 1985
Aquatic +1
Terrestrial +1
Human Health 0
Rating I/
2010
+4
+4
-+2
Subtrend :
Target oriented
Reduced effect on
__ —
5.3 Integrated controls
Factors/Rationale
non-target organisms
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Pesticide use would be limited for the most part to target-organisms. This pesticide reduction would enhance both the
aquatic and terrestrial systems through increased species diversity.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research and developments in this area need to be followed up with education in the benefits and application
of these controls.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) vhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 5.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls
Subtrend: 5.3, Integrated controls
Crop Production
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Successful development of integrated
controls depends on natural pest
populations control, along with a
combination of techniques that con-
tribute to suppression, cultural
methods, pest-specific diseases,
resistant crop varieties, sterile
insects, attractants, use of preda-
tors, or chemical pesticides as
needed. Some of these methods are
in thei>- infancy and are not yet
widely accepted or feasible to use.
However, contemporary pesticide
practices have proved effective to
the farmer. Until those other prac-
tices are available for use and con-
vincing evidence shows they offer
more protection per unit of cost
than current pest control methods,
fanners will not adopt integrated
controls. By 2010 integrated con-
trols will probably be widely ac-
cepted and used.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings:
Panel 1: 1976 J_; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 .
Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 .
2. Current chenr.cal pest control
methods are effective. Farmers
will not adopt integrated control
methods until they become feasible
for commercial use and can be shown
to be as effective per unit of cost
as current control methods.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1977.
2. National Academy of Sciences, Vol-
ume 1, Contemporary Pest Control
Practices and Prospects, Washing-
ton, D.C., 1975.
Productivity Productivity of integrated pest
control will compare to produc-
tivity from chemical pest control
methods. For example, yield in-
creases occur with some insect re-
sistant crops and with decreased
use of chlorinated hydrocarbons.
3. Yields increase with some insect and 3.
disease resistant crops.
4. Crop yields were shown to increase 4.
with decreased chlorinated hydro
carbon ur.e.
5. Acres with decreased chlorinated 5.
hydrocarbon use since 1966, showed
yield increases, showing decrease
in use did not adversely affect
yields. Attributing yield increase
to decreased use 1i questionable.
See References for 7.4, Disease
and insect resistant crops -
productivity.
Casey, J. E., Lacewell, R.D., and
Sterling, W. "An example of econ-
omically feasible opportunities
*or reducing pesticide use in com-
mercial agriculture," J. of Environ.
Quality 4(l):60-64, 1975.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Fa""iers Pesticide Use Decisions and
Attitudes on Alternative Crop Pro-
ted on Methods, 158 pages, 1974.
Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
main constant. Insecticide use
would be greatly decreased. Cost
could increase for some practices
associated with Integrated pest
control.
Continued
-------
en
co
Exhibit 5.3. (Continued) p
Environmental
Effects
Pollutant Changes
1n Media
Conclusions
Pesticide residues in water, soil,
and air will oe significantly re-
duced. Reductions will not be
seen until integrated controls
become feasible.
Research
Findings
References
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological S Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.1-6.5 Development of new chemical pesticides
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 19HF2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +1 +3 Beneficial effects of bio-degradable pesticides
Terrestrial +1 +2 Greater species diversity
Human Health +1 +2 Acute toxicity decreased
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2J :
Beneficial effects can be expected primarily from anticipated developments in and use of bio-degradable pesticides which
are less toxic. This will enhance both the aquatic and terrestrial systems by increasing species diversity. Acute
toxicity problems will be reduced in pesticide application. Also, overall pesticide use is expected to decrease.
Potential problems can be foreseen in the development of systems and micro-encapsulated formulations.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research is needed in the environmental effects of these pesticides as they are developed including a study of
systemic residues and the nature of degradation products.
b. Research is also needed on biomagnification of the food chain and effects of pesticides in the decomposing food
chain.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) v;here l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 6.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: 6.1 Micro-encapsulated
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Research has only begun on micro-
encapsulation of pesticides. In-
sufficient attention has been given
to the basic release mechanisms.
This is a promising area and may
be used in future.
1. Evaluation Workshop Rating—
Panel 1: 1976 _1_; 1985 2 ; 2010 _3_
2. Research has only begun on micro-
encapsulation of pesticides. Fur-
ther research is needed to deter-
mine feasibility of use.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of Funds
in Agriculture and Silviculture.
Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977.
2. National Academy of Sciences,
Volume 1, Contemporary Pest Con-
trol Practices and Prospects.
Washington, D.C., 1975.
Productivity Productivity would be comparable
to productivity from conventional
chemical pesticide control.
Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
main constant. Insecticide use
would decrease since efficiency
is increased and fewer applica-
tions are needed.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Pesticide residues in water would
be decreased since use decreases.
Residues in air would also de-
crease since mlcroencapsulatlon
reduces loss through drift and
volatilization. Persistence in
soil may be increased with slow
release pesticides.
-------
Exhibit 6.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: 6.2 Systemic pesticides
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Systemic pesticides are ab-
sorbed and translocated through
the plant to which they are ap-
plied. They show promise, but
more research is needed to de-
termine the residue levels re-
maining in the plants at har-
vest time. Limitations and
benefits of systemic pesti-
cides have yet to be deter-
mined.
1. Evaluation Horkshop Ratings:
Panel 1: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4
2. More research is needed to deter-
mine residue levels remaining 1n
plants at harvest time. Limita-
tions and potential benefits of
this practice need to be further
researched.
2.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume 1, 200 pages,
National Academy of Sciences.
Vplume 1, Contemporary Pest
Control Practices and"Prospects,
Washington, D.C., 1975.
Productivity
Productivity is expected to
remain constant.
Resource Use Resource use will remain con-
stant (Note: data is not avail-
able for pesticide use with
systemic pesticides, but is
assumed to remain unchanged.
Pollutant Changes
in Media
Change 1n pesticide residue
levels in water, soil, and
air is unknown, but assumed
not to increase. A potential
exists for increased pesti-
cide residues in crops. More
research 1s needed to deter-
mine if dangerous residue
levels can result.
-------
Exhibit 6.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: 6.3 Surfactants for herbicides
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness
Much research is needed be-
fore surfactants are avail-
able for commercial use.
Potential is high for this
development and commercial
use is anticipated for sur-
factants.
1. Evaluation Workshop Rating
Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 3
2. Research is needed for develop-
ment of surfactants, but po-
tential is high for surfactants.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume 1, 200 pages.
197T.
National Academy of Sciences,
Volume 1, Contemporary Pest
Control Practices and Prosp'ects.
Washington, D. C., 1975.
Productivity Productivity will remain un-
changed or increase slightly.
Increase would be due to In-
creased efficiency of the
herbicides.
Resource Use
Fertilizer and insecticide
use remain constant. Herbi-
cide use could decrease as
much as 50%. Cost of herbi-
cide treatment would be
reduced.
3.
He-bidde requirement could be
reduced by 50*.
3. Reference #2
Pollutant Changes
in Media
Herbicide losses Into water,
soil, and air will be signi-
ficantly decreased.
Herbicides account for 46? of
total pesticides used by far-
mers 1n 1971. Surfactants
could reduce this use by as
much as 50%.
4. Reference #2
-------
Exhibit 6.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: 6.4 Biodegradable Pesticides I/
Environmental
Effects
en
Co
Productivity
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Selective less toxic, biodegradable
pesticides can and are being devel-
oped through research, and offers a
solution to persistent pesticides as
DDT, and to the toxic biodegradable
pesticides that are currently avail-
able. Extensiveness will increase
to 2010 when several selective, less
toxic, biodegradable pesticides will
be available. Cost of the pesticides
is high in 1976 which decreases their
use by farmers. Cost reductions will
lead to wider use of the compounds.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 .
2. Selective biodegradable pesticides
are being developed. They have a
high toxicity to insects, yet are
relatively safe to humans and high-
er animals. Two examples of these
"new" pesticides are emphasized:
a. Selectivity of parathion is be-
ing improved. These retain high
toxicity to pests, yet are safe
to man and higher animals.
b. The biodegradability of DDT is
being improved. The new analog
will be persistent but not stored
in the lipids of animals or con-
centrated in food chains.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of Trends
In Agriculture and Silviculture,
Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977.
2. National Academy of Sciences, Pest
Control Strategies of the Future,
Washington, D.C., 1972.
Productivity remains unchanged.
No research data available.
Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide , and insec-
ticide use will remain unchanged.
Cost of selective non-toxic biodegrad-
able pesticides are higher because
they are not as extensively used as
more toxic pesticides. Research
costs to develop these are also high,
leading to increased pesticide cost.
3. Cost of newer biodegradable pes-
ticides can be considerably higher.
3. Fox, A.S., "Economic consequences
of restricting or banning the use
of pesticides," pp. 34-49. In:
Economic Research on Pesticides for
Policy Decision Making, U.S. Dept.
of Agric./Economic Research Service,
Washington, D.C., 1971.
Pollutant Change Pesticide residues in water, soil,
in Media: and water remain constant. However,
some biodegraJjble pesticides are
more toxic to humans and animals.
Selection and the use of less toxic
biodegradable pesticides will reduce
hazards to humans and animals.
4. Certain biodegradable pesticides,
such as parathion, are highly toxic
to animals. Several deaths have
been caused to applicators of the
pesticide.
Hoffman, C.H., "Restricting the use
of insectiddes-what are the altern-
•.tives?" pp. 14-21. In: Economic
Research on Pesticides for Policy
Decision Making, U.S. Dept. of
Agric./Economic Research Service,
Washington, D.C., 1971.
I/ Note:
Discussion 1s limited to the development of newer selective, less toxic biodegradable pesticides. There are currently bio-degradable
pesticides used widely in the U.S. However, these compounds are very toxic to humans and are often considered undesirable for use.
-------
Exhibit 6.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: 6.5 Alternative Formulations
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness No accurate estimates can be made of
the number of acres on which altern-
ative formulations are being used.
The workshop panel expect the use to
be significant by 2010.
1. Extensiveness ratings assigned by
the Crop Production Panel (Work-
shop) are as follows:
1976 1985
2010
Development Planning and Research
Associates, Environmental Implica-
tions of Trends in Agriculture aTid"
Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp.,
1977.
Productivity The effectiveness of this practice
would be reflected in increased
crop yields.
The use of a series of pesticides
and mixtures which differ in their
effectiveness in controlling pests
reduces the chance of a species
that is tolerant to a specific pes-
ticide from becoming dominant.
2. National Academy of Sciences, Pest
Control Strategies of the Future,
Washington, D.C., 1972.
Resource Use The overall pesticide requirement
would not be significantly changed
although minor decreases could be
expected as a result of increased
effectiveness.
Pollutant Change
in Hedia-
Slight reductions of residues 1n the
soil and water can be expected.
The rotation of pesticides reduces
the chance of an accumulation of
pesticide residues 1n the soil.
3. Reference #2.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological S Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.6-6.9 Development of new biological pesticides
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT IMS 2UIT) Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +1 +3 -----
Terrestrial +1 +3 ________.;
Human Health +1 +3
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects ___/:
Minor effects are expected by 1985 on .the ecological system. Depending on the extensiveness of these developments,
the effects are expected, to be of moderate importance by 2010. Developments are anticipated to have regional
application.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research is needed principally in developments related to the use of predators and parasites and involve the
effect of these agents on non-target organisms and their effects after the prey has been eradicated.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 6.6 & 6.7.
Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: 6.6 & 6.7. Juvenile Hormones and Phermones
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Extensiveness is limited in 1976.
Research is promising, but com-
mercial use may be 10 years away.
CTl
1. Evaluation Workshop Rating--
Juvenile Hormones
; 1985 _2_; 2010 _4_
Panel 1: 1976
Pheromones
Panel 1: 1976 _!__; 1985 2 ; 2010 _4_
2. Research is on-going and looks
promising. Commercial use is
still a few years away. An ex-
perimental permit was granted 1n
1974 for experimental use of .
Altnsid, a compound designed to
interfere with pest metabolism.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Environmental Implications of Trends
in Agriculture and Silviculture,
Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977.
2. National Academy of Sciences,
Volume 1, Contemporary Pest Con-
trol Practices and Prospects.
Washington, D.C., 1975.
Productivity Productivity resulting from the use
of these compounds 1s unknown. If
they are to be widely used, pro-
ductivity must be comparable to
yields from chemical pest control
methods. Large scale field tests
are needed to determine how effec-
tive these compounds are 1n sustain-
ing yields.
Potentially, productivity could
Increase if a pest is eradicated
or if pesticide residues in soil
decrease.
3. Larqe scale field tests are needed
to determine if these compounds
can compete with chemical pes-
tic'des.
3. Reference 12.
Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
main constant. Insecticide use
may not be greatly decreased because
juvenile hormones and pheromones
are usually specific for one pest.
If more than one pest is present in
one area, another insecticide may
have to be applied. More applica-
tions of hormones and pheromones
may have to be applied to effectively
control a pest. Cost per unit of
control with these compounds has not
been determined.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Insecticide residues in soil, water,
and »ir may remain constant or de-
crease. Residues will still be pres-
ent with hormones and pheromones.
However these residues are toxic only
to insects and not to man or animals.
-------
Exhibit 6.8. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: 6.8 Sterile Males
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness U.S.O.A. is involved in a number of
large scale programs designed to
control certain Insects by the re-
lease of sterile males. However,
from a national perspective, this
practice is not very extensive as
reflected in the ratings of the
workshop panel.
cr>
1. The crop production panel assigned
the following extensiveness rat-
ings to this trend:
1976
1
1985
1
2010
2
U.S.D.A. is involved 1n major
efforts to control a number of
insact populations to include the
pink bollworm in the Southwest,
the Mexican fruitfly in the sub-
trooical areas of the United
States, and the boll wevil in the
Southeast and parts of the South-
west.
Development Planning and Research
Associates, Environmental Implica-
tions of Trends in Agriculture and*
Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp.,
1977.
2. National Academy of Sciences, Con-
temporary Pest Control Practices
and Prospects: The Report of the
Executive Committee, Volume 1,
T5TT.
Productivity
A slight increase in crop yields
can be expected.
Resource Use Minor decreases can be expected in
the overall chemical pesticide re-
quirements.
Pol lutant Changes
in Media
Minor to insignificant reductions
in pesticide runoff and leaching
would result from the associated
reduction in chemical pesticide re-
quirements.
-------
Exhibit 6.9. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
Subtrend: Predators and Parasites
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Although spectacular results have
occurred with the use of predators
and parasites 1n pest control, the
wide range of technology necessary
for excessive adoption of this
practice has not been developed
(Reference 1).
The workshop did not expect this
trend to become very important 1n
the future.
CTi
CD
The rating assigned by the crop pro-
duction panel for this trend was 1
for 1976, 1985, and 2010.
1. National Academy of Science, Con-
teir.porary Pest Control Practices
and Prospects: The Report of the
Executive Committee. 1975"i
2. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Env1ronmental Impl1 ca-
tions of Trends In Agriculture and"
Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp.,
1977.
Productivity Although the use of predators and
parasites 1n the control of both
weeds and Insects shows promise of
increasing crop yields, no signif-
icant increase is expected in
light of the limited use anticipated
for the practice.
Resource Use No significant effect on resource
use is expected. However, a re-
duction in pesticide requirement can
be expected in those cases in which
this practice is used.
The use of parasites in 'ontrol of
grape leafhoppers in California re-
sulted in a net savings of $2.8 mil-
lion in pest control costs over an
eight year period.
3. Reference
Pollutant Change This trend should not have any
in Media direct effects on pollutants 1n the
soil, water, or air.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
of Nutrient
Ecological
1985
0
0
0
Application
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
0
Subtrend: 7.1 Foliar application
Factors/Rationale
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
No significant effects are expected from foliar application. This application technique is basically an adjunct to
__, soil incorporation but may be a partial substitute.
cr>
(2) Research needs:
a. Ongoing research involving foliar application should address environmental implications.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
~~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 7.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application
Subtrend: 7.1 Foliar application
Crop Production
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Extensiveness in 1976 is low. Re-
search is on-going and there are
limited production trials. Use of
foliar application for soybeans in
2010 will increase as practice be-
comes accepted.
1. Evaluation Uorkshop Rating:
Panel '.: 1976 J_; 1985 2 ; 2010 2 .
Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 2 .
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1976.
o
Productivity Limited research has shown yield
increases up to 20 bu/acre for
soybeans, however farmers" can ex-
pect 0-10 bu/acre increases, de-
pending on the original nutrient
status of soils, the pre-plaht
application, and previous Cropping
pattern. Time of application,
rate of application, and concen-
trations of nutrients must be
carefully controlled to reduce
the potential for leaf burns
and reduced yields.
2. Yield increases with experimental
use of foliar application ranged
between 5-20 bu/acre. Average
yield increases were about 9 bu/acre.
2. "Foliar fertilizing of soybeans
risky yet." Crops and Soils
29{7):27-28, Apr., 1977.
Resource Use Herbicide and insecticide use re-
main unchanged. Fertilizer use
will remain unchanged to slight
increases. Cost Is higher for
foliar application in 1976, but
expected to decrease with time.
and commercial adoption of this
practice.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water
There will be less available N
and P on the ground surface for
runoff and this will cause de-
creases in nutrient losses to
surface water.
3. Nutrients are absorbed directly
from the crop leaf instead of
through the crops root system.
3. Reference #2
Pollutant Changes
in Media;
Groundwater
Amount of N available for
leaching is less, and reduc-
tions of N in groundwater will
occur.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Air
Potential drift problems can
result with foliar application.
Timing of applications can help
eliminate this potential nu-
tr1e-.t loss to the air.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1985
+1
0
0
Application
Effect Rating I/
2010
+1
0
Subtrend: 7.2 Multiple applications
Factors/Rationale
Reduced nutrient loss
Less leaching
_.__.
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Effects are expected to be beneficial but of a minor nature. Less nutrients will be available for runoff at any one
time. This would reduce eutrophication in surface water. There would also be less nitrogen available for leaching.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research is needed on the long term effects of leaching of other ions with nitrogen and movement of ions down
in soil profile.
NOTE: This is a general research need not specifically related to this practice.
_!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
y Include specification of regional Implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 7.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application
Subtrend: 7.2 Multiple applications
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1976, more than 40% of ap-
plications are multiple appli-
cations. This practice will
continue to increase to 2010.
Mhen the cost of high concen-
tration show release fertili-
zers decrease, this will tend
to replace multiple applica-
tion.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings:
Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 J_
Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and SiTyi-
culture, Volume 1. 200 pages.1977.
Productivity Yield increases from 20-40
bu/acre for corn have been
obtained in research trials.
Farmers can probably expect
an increase in productivity
but yield increases will not
be this high.
2. Yield increases from 20-40 bu/acre
were achieved for corn with multi-
ple applications.
2. "Irrigat1on-fertigat1on round
table," Crops and Soils 29(7):
14-21, 1977.
no
Resource Use Pesticide use remains the
same. Fertilizer use will
be more efficient and use
should decrease slightly.
Increased energy and labor
occur with multiple appli-
cations.
3. ThO applications of nitrogen
are more efficient and reduce
fertilizer use.
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency.
Control of Water Pollution from
Cropland, Volume 2, Reprt 710. ARS-
H-5-2, Washington, D.C., 1976.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water
Nutrients in surface water
will remain unchanged or
show slight decreases. There
will be less N or P available
at any one time for runoff
loss. However, a single ap-
plication of a better formu-
lation could lesult in less
nutrient in runoff compared
to another application.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Groundwater
Leaching of N will remain
unchanged or decrease
slightly. There is less
N available at any one time
for leaching.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Soil
Slight increases of soil
compaction will result.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Air
No change
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.3 Fall applications
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 19"gF 2UTD Factors/Rationale
Aquatic -2 -3 Significant nutrient losses during winter rains
Terrestrial Q_ 0
Human Health -1 ,-1 Nitrate runoff and leaching
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Significant effects of an adverse nature are expected on this aquatic system as a result of increased nutrient runoff.
_^ This increase occurs principally during winter rains and snow melt runoff. Generally, no appreciable effects are
^ expected on terrestrial systems from a national perspective. Nitrate runoff into surface waters and leaching into ground
00 waters pose potential health effects.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research is needed to determine the regional environmental impacts of fall application.
\J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 7.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application
Subtrend: 7.3 Fall applications
Crop Production
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1975, 39% of all fertilizers
were fall applied. This prac-
tice 1s more important 1n non-
irrigated crop production and
will Increase in use to 2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Rating:
Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 .
Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1 .
2.
39',', of fertilizers in 1976 were
fall applied
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
TFends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Volume 1, 200 pages. 1977.
2. National Fertilizer Development
Center. TVA. 1976 Fertilizer
Summary Data, 130 pages, 1976.
Productivity Productivity values show-large
yield decreases to slight yield
reduces to no change. Fall ap-
plication 1s not advisable for
many areas, especially for coarse1
textured, or fine sandy soils.
Fall application of winter wheat
and some other crops 1s desir-
able.
3. Productivity from fall applications
of fertilizer can be greatly de-
creased with some crops and not
effect yields with other crops.
3. "Irrigat1on-fert1gat1on round-
table," Crops and Soils 29(7):
14-21, 1977.
Resource Use Pesticide use remains the same.
Fertilizer use will remain un-
changed or show slight to signi-
ficant increases. The fertili-
zer is less efficiently used.
Leaching, run-off and denltrl-
fication through the winter
will reduce the available
nutrients 1n the spring. Fall
application of fertilizer is
convenient for the farmer and
fertilizer manufacturer.
4. Fall applied fertilizer 1s less
efficient. Winter losses of
leaching and denitr1f1cat1on
will occur.
U.S. Dept. of Agr1culture/U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency.
Control of Water Pollution from
Cropland, Volume I, Report No.
ARS-H-5-1, Wash., D.C., 1975.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Surface Water
Ground Water
A1r
The potential of N, P, and K 1n
surface water is slightly greater
for fall applied fertilizers 1n
many areas. Potential leaching
losses and air losses of N are
increased with fall fertiliza-
tions.
Fall application of fertilizers
is undesirable on some soil types.
Fertilizer 1s generally limited to
ammonium fertilizers which tend to
reduce leaching.
5. Reference #3 and #4
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.4 Liquid fertilizer
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecoloqical
1985
0
0
0
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
-0
Factors/Rationale
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
The effects of liquid fertilizer application are not significantly different from those of solid fertilizer.
~^i
01 (2) Research needs:
a. Ongoing research involving liquid fertilizers should address the environmental implications.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 7.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application
Subtrend:: 7.4'. Liquid fertilizer
Crop Production
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1975, 30% of all fertilizers
were liquid compared to 8.51, 1n
1968. Use of liquid fertilizers
will increase to major levels by
2010 and is the fastest growing
segment of the fertilizer In-
dustry.
1. Evaluation Workshop Rating:
Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010
2. Liquid fertilizer was 30% of all
fertilizers in 1975. In 1968, only
8.3£ of all fertilizers were liquid.
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and SiTvi-
culture, Volume 1, 200 pages, 1977.
2. National Fertilizer Development
Center, TVA. 1976. Fertilizer
Summary Data, 130 pages, 1976.
Productivity Productivity will increase
slightly with liquid ferti-
lizers on a pound for pound
basis.
3. Production increases with liquid
fertilizer on a pound for pound
basis.
3.
Allied Chemical, Iowa, public
demonstrations.
Resource Use Herbicide and insecticide use
remain constant. Fertilizer
use decreases slightly. Labor
will decrease.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface water
Groundwater
Soil
Changes in nutrient pollutants
1n surface and groundwater will
remain unchanged or perhaps show
a very slight decrease. Pollu-
tant effects of liquid fertilizers
are the same on a pound for pound
basis. However, total fertilizer
use will decrease slightly.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.5 Aerial and floater application,
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT TW5" 27IIJ Factors/Rationale
Aquatic 0_ 0_
Terrestrial +1 +2 Less soil compaction from floaters,
Human Health
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
No significant effects can be expected on either the aquatic system or human health. Floater application will have
minor beneficial effects on the terrestrial system resulting from less compaction. Drift problems can be anticipated
from aerial application; however, the overall effects will not be significant since this type of application represents
a minor part of the total means of application.
(2) Research needs:
a. Ongoing research involving floater and aerial application should address environmental implications.
II Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
y Include specification of regional Implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 7.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application
Subtrend: 7.5 Aerial and floater application
Crop Production
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Extensiveness in 1976 may be
more than 20% of all fertili-
zer applications. I/
This practice will continue
to increase to 2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings:
Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 2; 2010 J_.
Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 3 .
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1. 200 pages, 1977.
CD
Productivity Slight productivity Increases are
expected with this practice.
Areas difficult to treat with
conventional fertilizer appli-
cation methods, will benefit
from aerial application.
Resource Use
Resource use will remain con-
stant, except for labor which
decreases.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Surface water
Groundwater
Soil
Data on nutrient pollutants
in surface v/ater, ground-
water, and soil is not avail-
able. However, it is likely
to remain unchanged.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Air
Increased nutrient losses
will occur with aerial ap-
plication, by drift.
I/ Ag Chem Corp. manufacturers of floater vehicles, estimated that in 197C 50% of crop acres were transverse.' at least once per year
by floater vehicles to spread fertilizer.
The National Agricultural Aviation Association estimates thar. less than 5* of all crop acres are fertilized aerially, 1n 1976.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for'Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
of Nutrient
Ecological
1985
0
0
0
Application
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
0
Subtrend: 7.6 Improved nutrient placement
Factors/Rationale
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Improved nutrient placement has the potential for beneficial effects from more effective utilization and less nutrient
loss. However, the overall effects are not expected to be significant.
(2) Research needs: None identified.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) v\here l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-} rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional Implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 7.6. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application
Subtrend: 7.6 Improved nutrient placement
Crop Production
Environmental
Effects
CO
o
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1976, an estimated 30% or
more fertilizers had improved
placement. This practice will
increase slightly to 2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings
Panel :: 1976 4 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 4 .
Panel ?: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 : 2010 T".
1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages, 1977.
Productivity Productivity may increase
slightly with optimum place-
ment.
2. Decreased P in band applications
can give higher yields than higher
rates of P in broadcast. Yields for
corn were 6 bu/acre higher for band
application.
2. Richards, G. E. "Band Appli-
cation: A better less costly
way to fertilize your crops,"
Crops and Soils 28(9):10-11,
Resource Use Herbicide and insecticide use
remains constant. Fertilizer
use v/ill remain unchanged or
show slight decreases, es-
pecially for P requirement.
Fertilizer costs and applica-
tion costs are reduced with
P banding.
3. Band application of P can decrease
use requirement by 502! and maintain
yields.
3. Richards, G. E., "Phosphorus
fertilization: can we do a
better job?" Crops and Soils
27(4): 12-14, T9~75
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface water
Groundwater
Soil
With improved nutrient place-
ment, potential nutrient pollu-
tion of surface water and
ground water will remain un-
changed or show very slight
decreases. Decreases would
result from crops being able
to more efficiently use the
nutrients.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.7 Irrigation application
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 195?2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic -1 -1 Greater loss of nutrients in tailwater
Terrestrial 0_ 0_ ""_""
Human Health 0 - 0
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/;
The effects on the aquatic system are expected to be minor and of an adverse nature resulting from a slight increase
of nutrients in tailwaters. No significant effects are anticipated on human health or the terrestrial systems.
co
'2) Research needs:
a. There is a need for research in comparing nutrient loss from irrigation and ground application.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) v,?iere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional Implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 7.7. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application
Subtrend: 7.7 Irrigation application
Crop Production
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness An estimated 25% of all irri-
gated cropland applied ferti-
lizers in irrigation waters 1n
1976. Extensiveness will in-
crease slightly by 2010.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings
Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 2 ; 2010
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends In Agriculture and STTvl-
eulture, Vol. 1, 200 pages, 1977.
Productivity Irrigation application lends
itself to multiple applica-
tions and optimal rates and
timing for crops. With irri-
gation, crop productivity will
always increase. However,
productivity can be further
increased with irrigation
application of fertilizer.
2. Irrigation application of ferti-
lizers lends itself to optimal
fertilizer management and effic-
iency. Yields increased an avg. of
2C bu/acre in one study with multi-
ple fertilizer applications. Irri-
gation application should apply
wfter uniformly across field for
maximum fertilizer efficiency.
2. "Irrigat1on-fert1gat1on round
table," Crops and Soils 29(7):
14-21, 1977.
co
ro
Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide, and in-
secticide use remain constant.
The cost of fertilizer that
must be used in Irrigation
systems is higher. However
these costs are offset by
lower cost of applying ferti-
lizer, and increased ferti-
lizer efficiency.
3. Ccsts for water applied fertilizers
are higher. However costs for
applying fertilizers are lower.
3. Reference #2
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface water
Groundwater
Soil
The potential of nutrient pollu-
tion of surface water, ground-
water, and soil with irrigation
application of fertilizers will
depend upon tne irrigation
management and scheduling prac-
tices. Irrigation application
would probably tend to slightly
reduce nutrient losses. How-
ever, over irrigation or rapid
application rates would increase
potential nutrient pollutants.
4. With good irrigation management,
little N 1s available for
leaching.
4. Reference 12
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
A1r
With sprinkler Irrigation, In-
creased loss of nutrients to
the air will occur on windy
days.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
co
CO
Trend: 8. Using Soil Plant Analysis
Subtrend: 8.1 Soil plant analysis
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological Effect Rating _!/
H5F5
±2^
0
0
Factors/Rationale
Depends on type of nutrient application
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
Higher yields expected in the future will require higher rates of nutrient application. The effects of soil plant
analysis on the aquatic systems will depend on how the nutrients are applied. Multiple applications and use of slow
release fertilizer will result in beneficial effects; however, fertilizer over applied will have adverse effects.
Beneficial effects would reflect rates based on demand and a more effective balance between nutrients. No significant
effects are expected on human health or the terrestrial systems.
(2) Research needs:
a. Research involving analytical techniques should address environmental implications.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
~~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 8.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
Trend: 8. Using Soil-Plant Analysis
Subtrend: 8.1 Soil Plant Analysis
Crop Production
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
OD
Extensiveness An estimated 20-25 percent of crop-
land was covered by some type of
soil analysis in 1976 while less
than 5 percent was covered by plant
analysis. Since these analyses are
normally conducted no more than once
every three years, the maximum crop-
land that could be expected to be
covered in any given year would be
33 1/3 percent. It Is anticipated
that the annual coverage 1n 2010 will
be less than 30 percent.
The following ratings of extensive-
ness were made by the crop production
panels in connertion with this trend:
Panel
1976
Development Planning and Research
Associates, Environmental Implica-
tions of Trends in Agriculture and
Silviculture, Volume I, 200 pp.,
WTT.
Nonirrlgated 3
Crop Production
Irrigatad ,
Crop Production
Productivity
Resource Use
Increases in crop yields can be ex-
pected from the trend towards plant-
soil analysis.
Some increase can be expected in
fertilizer use as a result of the
trend towards greater coverage by
these types of analysis.
Pollutant Change Although fertilizer use is expected
in Media to increase, the greater efficiency
associated with plant-soil analysis
would tend to decrease nutrient
runoff and leaching. However, this
reduction can be expected to be
minor.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 9. Alternative Residual Disposal Subtrend: 9.1 Off-site disposal
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT 19137 2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic _-!__ -2 Increased eutrophication, accelerated algae blooms
Terrestrial .+!._. +1_ Soil rehabilitation
Human Health -1 -1 Potential nitrate pollution of ground water
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
The potential of nitrogen runoff is greatet* for manure than commercial fertilizer. The increase in nitrogen and BOD in
surface water can be expected to increase eutrophication and to accelerate algae blooms. The organic content of manure
can be expected to contribute to soil rehabilitation (this assumes a reduction in salt applied to rations). The
potential of nitrate pollution in ground water poses problems in well water.
(2) Research needs:
a. Additional research is needed on the effects of high sodium content in rations on soil defloculation.
b. The economic feasibility of hauling manure for fertilizer use should be determined.
c. The use of rotations to effectively reduce the potential build-up of copper, arsenic, and sodium found in
feed rations should be investigated.
d. Continued research is needed on the long term effects of nitrates on humans.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Environmental
Effects
co
CTi
Exhibit 9.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Feedlot Operations
Trend: 9. Alternative Residual Disposal
Subtrend: 9.1 Off-site Disposal of Solids and Liquids
Page 1
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness About 2 billion tons of animal waste
are being produced annually with less
than a third, or about 500 million
tons, generated in feedlots. Within
feedlot operations, waste production
is expected to increase by about 30%
in 1985 and by 70% in 2010. The
greatest portion of off-site disposal
can be expected to be accomplished by
land application. Although land
application includes spreading for
fertilization of crops as well as
land disposal, most of the off-site
application can be expected to be
done at the higher disposal rates.
Very few states have specifically
prescribed maximum allowable rates.
Of those few that do have these
rates, the typical level is about
40 tons per acre per year. At this
rate, the 30% and 70% increase 1n
waste production would require a
maximum of 4 million additional
acres in 1985 and 8 million 1n 2010
for disposal.
About 1.56 billion tons of animal
waste was produced annually (1972)
including feedlots, ranqe and pas-
ture, and farr-s. (ref. 1)
The relation between food production
and animal waste is shown below:
(ref. 2)
TJ Produce Produces
Milk, 1 Ib. Manure, 2 Ib.
Chicken, 1 Ib. Manure, 8 Ib.
Beef, 1 Ib. Manure, 25 Ib.
The f3edlot panel of the Evaluation
Works lop rated the extensiveness of
off-site disposal as follows: (ref. 5)
Sol ids
Liqjids
1976
2
1
(1 * minor effect to 5
effect)
1985 2010
3 4
2 3
major
1. Inglett. G.E., "The Challenge of
Waste Utilization," Symposium: Pro-
cessing Agricultural and Municipal
Wastes, Avi, West Port, Conn., 1973.
2. Stavenger, P., "The Food Industry
and Pollution," Food Technology,
24, 121, 1970.
3. Draft Development Document for Ef-
fluent Limitations Guidelines and~
Standard Performance, Feedlot In-
dustry, prepared for the Environ-
mental Protection Agency by Ham-
ilton Standard, 1973.
4. "Control of Pollution from Animal
Feedlots," Hearings before a sub-
coraiittee of the Committee on Gov-
ernment Operations, House of Repre-
sentatives, 93rd Congress, 1973.
5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Environmental Implications of Trends
in Agriculture and Silviculture.~
Phase I-The Evaluation Workshop' Sum-
mary (DRAFT), prepared for EPA by
Dev. Planning & Res. Assoc., 1977.
Productivity The increased land disposal of ani-
mal waste will have both beneficial
and adverse effects on plant pro-
ductivity. Croo yields associated
with manure application can generally
be expected to be equivalent to
yields resulting from commercial
fertilizer. Yields frequently will
depend on clinatic conditions. In
dry years, manure can be expected to
have the greatest beneficial effects.
In wet years commercial fertilizer
will have the greatest beneficial
effects.
When optimal rates of chemical fer-
tilizers and animal waste are applied
on separate plots, usually the yield
will be equal. In dry years, manure
produces the greatest yields; in wet
years, chemical fertilizer produces
the greatest (ref. 6-7).
increased soil salinity resulting
from land application has been found
to decrease crop yields, (ref. 8)
Applications of beef and dairy waste
have increased the nitrate-nitrogen
content of plants to levels poten-
tially toxic to animal health, (ref.
10-11)
Copper concentrations 1n grasses re-
ceiving waste from swine grown on
high copper ration were reported
above 30 ppm, the toxic threshold
for sheep, (ref. 12)
6. Mclntosh, J. 1., and K. E. Varney,
"Accumulative Effects of Manure and
N on Continuous Corn and Clay Soil.
I. Growth Yield, and Nutrient Up-
take of Corn, "Agron. J., 64: 374-
378, 1972.
7. Ware, L.M., and W. A. Johnson,
"Poultry Manure for Vegetable Crops
—Effects and Value, Bull. 386, Ag-
ricjltural Exp. Station, Auburn
Univ., Auburn, Albama, 1968.
8. Mathers, A. C. and B. A. Stewart,
"Crop Production and Soil Analyses
as Affected by Applications of Cat-
tle Feedlot Waste," Livestock Int.
Symposium on Livestock Wastes,
American Society of Agr. Engr., St.
Joseph, Michigan, 1971.
continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 9.1. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Productivity
(Continued)
Arsenic content of legumes was found
to be unaffected by applications of
poultry litter containing measurable
amounts of arsenic, (ref. 13)
co
9. Wal'ingford, G. W., L. S. Murphy,
W. L. Powers, and H. L. Manges,
"Effect of Beef-Feedlots Lagoon
Water on Soil Chemical Properties
and Growth and Composition of Corn
Forage," J. Environmental Quality
3:74-75, T57T.
10. Mathers, A. C., and B. A. Stewart,
"Corn Silage Yield and Soil Chem-
ical Properties as Affected by
Cattle Feedlot Manure," J. Environ.
Quality, 3:143-147, 1974.
11. Pratt, P. R. S. Davis, R. G. Sharp-
less, W. J. Pugh, and S. E. Bishop,
"Nitrate Content of Sudangrass and
Barley Forages Grown on Plots
Treated with Animal Manures,"
Agron. J., 1974.
12. Humenik, F. J., R. W. Skaggs, C. R.
Willey, and D. Huisingh, "Evalua-
tion of Swine Waste Treatment Al-
ternatives," Waste Management Re-
search, Graphics Corp., Washington
D.C., 1972.
13. Morrison, J. L., "Distribution of
Arsenic from Poultry Litter in
Broiler Chickens, Soil, and Crops,"
J. Agri. and Food Chem.. 17:1288-
1290, 1969.
Resource Use Increased animal waste production
can be expecte'! to result 1n In-
creased fertilization with manure
which will tend to offset, to a
small degree, the overall com-
mercial fertilizer requirements.
Increased land application can be
expected to increase fly Infestation
with an increase 1n pesticide re-
quirement. However, the Increase
1n pesticide use 1s not expected to
be significant.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Surface Water
Available research on the possible
pollution of surface water has pri-
marily Involved measurement of
nutrient runoff. At fertilization
rates (10-20 tons/acre), nutrient
From field experiments in Vermont,
1936-1943: (ref. 14)
a. Greatest runoff occurred 1n Feb.
and March;
14. Medgby, A.R., and D.E. Dunklee,
"Fertility Runoff Losses from Ma-
nure Spread during the Winter,"
Univ. of Vermont, Ag. Exp. Sta.,
Bull. 523. 1945.
continued . .
-------
Exhibit 9.1. (Continued)
Page 3
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water
(Continued)
C»
Co
runoff associated with animal waste
would be relatively minor and, in
most cases would be less than the
runoff associated with equivalent
rates of commercial fertilizers.
When animal waste is applied on
frozen ground or in early spring,
runoff up to 30% of the available
nitrogen can be expected. Research
on high disposal rates have primar-
ily been designed to measure the
effects on crop yield not. nutrient
runoff. Several experiments in-
volving these rates have shown that
nutrient runoff has not been sig-
nificantly greater than that of un-
treated land.
No specific research is available
directly linking sediment loss with
land disposal. However, based on
research showing generally reduced
runoff with land disposal, it can
be concluded that sediment loss
would also be reduced.
b. Average nutrient losses after an
application of ten tons of un-
treated manure were: nitrogen
equivalent to from 20 to 70 Ibs.
of sodium pitrate; phosphorus,
equivalent to from 12 to 25 Ibs.
of 20% superphosphate; and potas-
sium, equivalent to from 27 to 55
Ibs. of 50% muriate of potash;
c. Volatilization losses were usual-
ly greater than runoff losses be-
cause they begin to occur as soon
as the manure is produced, and
much of the ammonia is lost into
the air before runoff occurs.
A study on the application of liquid
dairy waste on sloping frozen land
found that a rate of 130 cumulative
wet tens per hecture increased the
ammonium nitrogen and total coliform
in the runoff. However, the total
nitrogen measured in the runoff was
not affected, (ref. 15)
From field experiments in Wisconsin
1966-1959, on Rosetta silt loam soil
the following conclusions were made:
a. Up to 20% of N, 13% of P, and 13%
of K nutrients in winter applied
irarure on frozen ground, may be
lost under conditions favoring
maximum early spring runoff;
b. Nutrient losses in surface runoff
from plots having manure applied
in the summer and incorporated
into the soil were less than from
check plots which received no
manure, (ref. 16)
A comparison of the effects of win-
ter and spring application of dairy
manure revealed that nutrient losses
from winter applications were ex-
tremely variable—3.4 to 26.9 Kg/ha
of nitrogen. Spring application re-
sulted in no runoff losses of N, P,
or K. (ref. 17)
15. Sutton, A.L., D.W. Nelson, N.J.
Moeller, and L.F. Muggins, "Appli-
cation of Anaerobic Liquid Dairy
Waste on Sloping Frozen Land," pre-
sented at the 69th Annual Meeting
of the Amer. Dairy Science Assoc.,
Univ. of Cuelph, Canada, 1974.
16. Hinshall, N.E., S.A. Wltzel, and
M.S. Nichols, "Stream Enrichment
from Farm Operations," Proc. Amer.
Soc. C1v1l Engr. Sanitary Engr.,
Div. Sr. SA 2:513-524, 1970.
17. Henster, R.F., W.H. Enhardt, and
L.M. Walsh, "Effects of Manure
Handling Systems on Plant Nutrient
Cycling," Livestock Waste Manage-
ment and Pollution Abatement, Proc.
Int. Symposium on Livestock Wastes,
p. 254-257, Amer. Soc. of Agr. Eng.
St. Joseph, Michigan, 1971.
18. Young, R.A., "Nutrients in Runoff
from Manure Spread on Frozen
Ground," Transactions of the ASAE,
1973.
19. McCaskey, T.A., G.H. Rollins, and
0. Little, "Water Pollution by
Dairy Farm Wastes as Related to
Method of Waste Disposal," Water
Resources Research Institute Bul-
letin 18, 1973.
20. Lrose, O.E., A.P. Mazurah, Leon
Chesnin, "Animal Waste Utilization
for Pollution Abatement," Trans-
actions of the ASAE, 16,1:160-163,
1973.
21. Lund, Z.F., F. L. Long, B.D. Doss,
and Luke Mugwira, "Disposal of
Dairy Cattle Manure on Soil," In-
ternational Symposium on Livestock
Waste at Urbana-Champalgn, 1975.
continued
-------
Exhibit 9.1. (Continued)
Page 4
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water
(Continued)
Co
Research
Findings
From £. study on the effects of veg-
etation cover on dairy manure runoff
the following observations were made:
a. Whe.n manure was applied to frozen
alfalfa lanH, 30% of the applied
nitrogen and 6% of the applied
orthophosphate was lost;
b. Nutrient loss from the alfalfa
plcts was greater than from un-
treated plots;
c. When manure was applied to frozen,
plcwsd land, nutrient losses were
only slightly greater than those
frcm the untreated plots, (ref. 18)
Research was done in Alabama during
a 27 nonth period between 1969 and
1970 'involving spreading of manure
on grassland plots. Findings revealed
that the most BOD and nitrate 1n run-
off dtring 1971 from spreading
occured during August, the month of
lowest rainfall; the least occurred
during March. At 10 to '.1 tons
waste applied annually on grassland,
there was not an appreciable de-
terioration of runoff water quality
nor buildup soil nitrate, (ref. 19)
Research was conducted in Nebr. with
the objective of determining the
maximum allowable rate of applying
livestock manure to cultivate crops
without pollution of surface runoff
or under ground water. Beef feedlot
manure was aoplied at levels of 0, 40,
J20, and 260 tons dry matter/acre and
oisk plowed into the soil at 4, 8, .
and 12 inch depths. Conclusions made
were that N and sodium displacement
did not pollute the surface runoff
water; however, potassium restricted
the runoff to irriqat'on uses only.
Ground water retained its potable
quality (the 260 ton/acre test area
contributed 7.8 ppm of nitrate nitro-
gen. Ten ppm 1s the maximum allow-
able), (ref 20)
References
continued . .
-------
Exhibit 9.1. (Continued)
Page 5
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Surface Water
(Continued)
In Alabama, dairy cattle manure was
Incorporated into the surface (15 cm)
of Not folk sand loam cropped with
millet and rye for a period of three
years and at a rate of 45 mt/ha/yr.
Total N in run ,ff averaged less than
3 Kg/ra/yr. (ref. 21)
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Ground Water
Increased land application of animal
waste can be expected to cause a
greater potential for ground water
pollution. Nitrate nitrogen and sol-
uble salts have been found 1n ground
water in vicinity of manure applica-
tion sites.
Research conducted 1n California on
the effects of land application of
dairy waste revealed that nitrate
nitrogen and soluble salts were
present in vicinity of the applica-
tion sites, (ref. 22)
In a study in Pennsylvania, liquid
dairy manure was injected on plots
of orchard grass, bluegrass and corn
at ra'es supplying 200 to 600 pounds
of nitrogen on the bluegrass and
orchard grass in the soil water at 3
to 4 feet was approximately two times
the limit for potable water. The
level decreased 50% in the next grow-
ing season. It was estimated that
continued annual applications on a
relatively level silt loam soil
should supply not more than 200 to
300 pounds of nitrogen per acre. (ref.
22. Adrlano, D.C., P.P. Pratt, and S.E.
Bishop, "Fate of Organic Forms of
N and Salt from Land-disposal Ma-
nures from Dairies," Livestock
Uaste Management and Pollution
Abatement Proc. Int. Symposium on
Livestock Wastes, P. 243-246, Amer.
Soc. of Agr. Eng., St. Joseph,
Michigan, 1971.
23. Marriott, L.F. and H.D. Bartlett,
Animal Waste Contribution to Ni-
trate Nitrogen in Soil," Inter-
national Symposium on Livestock
Wastes at Urbana-Champaign, 1975.
23)
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Application of manure can generally
be expected to increase soil infil-
tration and improve Its water hold-
Ing capacity. Total soil nitrogen
can be expected to increase; however,
research findings have not shown
that the buildup is necessarily at
undesirable levels.
A single application of 13.5 t/ha of
solid dairy manure increased soil
Infiltration rate by 27% in a con-
tinuous corn culture, (ref. 24)
Wet solid beef manure applied at a
rate of 112 t/ha in Texas did not
sign1f1cantly affect the inflltra-
' ion rate. (ref. 25)
Infiltration rates Increased with
manure application rates from 93 to
269 t/ha; but decreased with higher
rates, (ref. 26)
Treated plots had larger yield in-
creases 1n dry years than in wet
years because of Improved water
availability, (ref. 27-28)
Application of manure Increased the
available water capacity of the soil.
(ref. 2?)
24. Zwerman, P.J., A.B. Drlelsma, G.D.
Oones, S.D. Klausner, and D. Ellis,
"Rates of Water Infiltration Re-
sulting from Applications of Dairy
Manure," Relationship of Agricul-
ture to Soil and Water Pollution,
Proc. 1970 Cornell Agricultural
Waste Management Conf., p. 263-270,
Graphics Management Corp., Wash-
ington, D.C., 1970.
25. Swader, F.N., and B.A. Stewart,
"The Effect of Feedlot Wastes on
the Water Relations of Pullman
Clay Loam," ASAE Paper No. 72-959,
Cornell University, 1972 Annual
Mtg. ASAE, Hot Springs, Ark.,
June 27-30, 1972.
continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 9.1. (Continued)
Page 6
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Soil
(Continued)
Application of manure improved
water availability by decreasing
the force with which it was held In
soil. (ref. 30)
Heavy applications of solid feedlot
waste and dairy manure slurry in-
creased the total nitrogen in soil.
(ref. 31-33)
Research conducted in semi-arid
Alberta to determine the effect of
long-term applications of manure on
N, P, and soluble salt content of
cultivated soil under irrigation.
Manure applied annually over a
forty year period at 70 t/ha did
not cause an undesirable buildup
of the nutrients or salts, {ref. 34)
26. Manges, H.L., D.E. Eisenhauer, R.D.
Stritzke, and E.H. Goering, "Beef
Feedlot Manure and Soil Water Move-
ment," Paper No. 74-2019, presented
at the 1974 Summer Meeting, ASAE,
Stillwater, June 23-26, 1974.
27. Haworth, F., T.V. Cleaver, and J.M.
Bray, "The Effects of Different
Manurial Treatments on the Yield
and Mineral Composition of Early
Potatoes," J. Hort. Sci., 41:225-
241, 1966.
28. Holliday, R., P.M. Harris, and
M.R. Baba, "Investigations into the
Mode of Action of Farmyard Manure.
I. The Influence of Soil Moisture
Conditions on the Response of Main-
crop potatoes to Farmyard Manure,"
J. Ag. Sci_. 64:161-166, 1965.
29. Gingrich, J.R. and R.S. Stauffer,
"Effects of Long-time Soil Treat-
ments on Some Physical Properties
of Several Illinois Soils," SS
SAP 19:257-260, 1955.
30. Salter, P.J. and F. Haworth, "The
Available Water Capacity of a
Sandy Loam Soil," J. of Soil Sc1.
12:335-342, 1961.
31. Herron, G.M. and A.B. Erhart,
"Value of Manure on an Irrigated
Calcareous Soil," SSSAP 29:278-281,
1965.
32. Mathers, A.C., and B.A. Stewart,
"Corn Silage Yield and Soil Chem-
ica". Properties as Affected by
Cattle Feedlot Manure", J. Environ.
Quality 3:143-147, 1974.
33. Murphy, L.S., G.W. WalHngford, W.L.
Powers, and H.L. Manges, "Effects of
Solid Beef Feedlot Wastes on Soil
Conditions and Plant Growth," Waste
Management Res., Proc. 1972 Cornell
UnivT Agr. Waste Management Conf, p.
449-464, Graphic Mgw. Corp.. Wash-
ington, O.C., 1972.
continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 9.1. (Continued)
Page 7
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
ro
34. Sommerfeldt, Theron G., U. J.
Pittman, and R. A. Milne,
"Effect of Feedlot Manure on Soil
and Water Quality", J. Environ-
mental Quality, 2, 4:423-427,
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
UD
00
Trend: 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates Subtrend: 10.1 Continuous grazing & 10.2 Specialized grazing
Ecological Effect Rating I/
TYPE OF EFFECT i§852UTTJ Factors/Rationale
Aquatic +1 +2 Beneficial effects from reduced runoff
Terrestrial +2 +3 Species diversity increased
Human Health 0_ . 0 No significant effect on ground water
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
The reduced runoff can be expected to have beneficial effects on surface water. The increased productivity in vegetation
will increase species diversity. No significant effect -is anticipated on ground water.
(2) Research needs:
a. There is a need for research on nutrient and sediment runofr associated with the various specialized systems.
V Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2] Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2.
Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Range and Pasture Management
Trend: 10. Grazing "ractlces and Stocking Rates
Subtrend,: 10.1 i 10.2. Continuous grazl ig and 10.2 Specialized grazing
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness
10
Information was not found in the
literature indicating the number
of acres currently under the var-
ious grazing systems: continuous
vs. specialized. Estimates on
range can be made from data con-
tained In reference 1, making cer-
tain broad assumptions. That study
made estimates for 1970 and 2000
concerning four strategies: "some
grazing," "extensive," "intensive,
and "environmental management."
Assuming that the first two strat-
egies correspond with continuous
grazing and the latter two with
specialized grazing, the extensive-
ness of the two systems are esti-
mated as follows for 1970 and 2000.
System 1970 2000
(mil. ac.)
Continuous 641.2 515.3
-19.6%
1. Th; following strategies were de-
veloped under Alternative 19, which
represents an accumulation of know-
lelge and constraints acquired in
tha evaluation of previous alter-
natives:
Strategy B: some grazing - no at-
tempt to achieve livestock distri-
bution.
St-ategy C: extensive management -
relative uniform livestock distri-
bution with no attempt at maxi-
mizing forage production.
Strategy D: Intensive management -
Tiiadmizing forage production using
all available technology.
Strategy E: environmental manage-
ment - livestock production maxi-
mized.
1. U. S. Department of Agriculture
The Nations Range Resources,
Forest Resource, Rep. No. 19,
1972.
Specialized 108.1 273.8
(No estimates are made on
+153. 3%
pasture)
Strategy
B
C
Subtotal
D
£
Subtotal
1970
(inil .
236.2
405.0
64771
57.9
50.2
T087T
2000
ac.]
155.8
359.5
5T57I
208.6
65.2
273T
Productivity Specialized grazing systems can gen-
erally be expocted to produce a higher
quality forage than continuous systems.
Rotation grazing increased litter
cover, uecreased bare soil, in-
creased water absorption (Infiltra-
tion), decreased sod compaction,
and increased basal cover of desir-
able plants. (However, there was
no significant difference in total
basal cover of all plants.)
Research 1n semi-desert sagebrush-
bunch grass range found that vege-
tation Increased 22 percent 1n den-
sity under continuous grazing and 20
percent under rotation.
Ratliff, R. D., 0. N. Reppert, and R.
0. McConnen, "Pest-rotation grazing
at Harvey Valley ... range health,
cattle gains, costs," Forest Service
Research Paper PSW-77, Pacific S.W.
Forest and Range Exp. Sta.. Berkeley,
Calif., 1972.
Hyder, D.N., and W. A. Sawyer, "Ro-
tation-deferred grazing as compared
to season-long grazing on sage-
brush-bunchgrass 1n Oregon," J.
Range Management 4:30-34, 195T7
Continued . .
-------
Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2. (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
UD
en
4. Research in Utah involving rota-
tion and continuous grazing on
crested wheat grass found that
thiire was no significant differ-
ence in 11\j basal area among ro-
tation grazing, continuous grazing,
and continuous grazing and delayed
10 days.
5. In Medicine Bow National Park, plant
cover density improved among three
systems: continuous, rotation, and
rest-rotation; however, the Improve-
ment was greater among rotation and
rest-rotation.
6. In the northern plains, plant density
declined from 50-60 percent to 30-40
percent under continuous grazing.
No sianificant difference in vegeta-
tion density was found between con-
tinuous and rotation grazing; al-
though differences were found in the
effects of Individual species.
8. In a five-year study in Texas, basal
cover Increased 2.7 percent under
rotation grazing and 6.7 percent undt-
continuous.
9. A nine-year study of grazing in
Alberta found no differences in
Increased ground cover by the main
forage species, forbs, or shrubs.
10. A six-year study of grazing in 10.
Western Canada found that grasses
Increased in basal area from 7.3
percent to 7.4 percent under rota-
tional systems and decreased from
7.9 percent to 7.2 percent under
continuous.
Freschknecht, N.C., and L. E.
Karris, "Grazing Intensities and
Systems on Crested Wheat Grass
in Central Utah; Response of
Vegetation and Cattle," Tech.
Bull. No. 1388, Forest Service,
USOA, Wash., D.C., 1968.
Johnson, W.M., "Rotation, Rest-
Rotation, and Season-long Grazing
on a Mountain Range 1n Wyoming,"
Forest Service Research Paper
RH-14, Rocky Mt. Forest and Range
Exp. Sta., Fort Collins, CO,1965.
Rogler, G.A., "A Twenty-five Year
Comparison of Continuous and Ro-
tation Grazing in the Northern
Plains," J. Range Management,
4:35-41, 1951.
Mcllvain, E.H., and D. Savage,
"Eight-year Comparisons of Con-
tinuous and Rotational Grazing
on the Southern Plains Experi-
mental Range," J. Range Hanage-
ment, 4:42-47, 1$5T
Fisher, C.E., and P.T. Marion,
"Continuous and Rotation Grazing
on Buffalo and Tobasa Grassland,"
J. Range Management, 4:48-51,
1951.
Smoliak, S., "Effects of Deferred-
Rotation and Continuous Grazing on
Yearling Steer Gains and Short
Grass Prairie Vegetation of
Sovtheastern Alberta," J. Range
Management, 13:239-243, 1960.
Hubbard, W.A., "Rotation Grazing
Studies in Western Canada,"
J. Range Management. 4:25-29,
1951.
Continued ... .
-------
Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2. (Continued)
Page 3
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
11. In a study of native grasses in
the rolling plains of Texas, de-
ferred-rotation systems were found
to produce vegetation as well as
better thar, continuous systems.
11. Mathis, Gary W., and M. H. Koth-
mann, "Response of Native Range
Grasses to Systems of Grazing
and Grazing Intensity," Agron-
omic Research in the Texas
Rolling Plains, PR-2626, p-22-23,
1968.
cr,
Groundwater
Soil
12. Three reports found deferred-
rotation systems to be generally
of little or no advantage to
vegetation. All of the reports
agree that the maximum gains per
head can be achieved with moder-
ate continuous grazing.
12. Clarke, S.E., E.W. Tisdale, and
N.A. Skoglund, "The Effects of
Climate and Grazing Practices on
Shortgrass Prairie Vegegation 1n
Southern Alberta, and Southwestern
Saskatchewan," Canadian Dept. Agr.
Tech. Bull. 46. 53 p., 1943.
13. Whitman, W., F. W. Christensen, and
E. A. Helgeson, "Pasture Grasses
and Pasture Mixtures for Eastern
North Dakota," N. Dak. Agr. Exp.
Stat. Bull. No. 327, 1943.
14. Rogler, G.A., R. J. Lorenz, and H.
Schoof, "Progress with Grass,"
N. Dak. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. No.
439, 15 p., 1962.
Resource Use The trend toward specialized
grazing systems would not
have any direct impact on
resource requirements.
Surface Water The generally improved vege-
tation under socialized
systems would tend to reduce
sediment and nutrient runoff.
13. There is no literature available
which directly link runoff rates
with the various grazing systems.
Increased leaching associated
with improved vegetation may
potentially reduce the qual-
ity of groundwater.
Trend toward specialized systems
would have favorable impacts
on soil conditions.
14. Rotation grazing decreased bare
soil, increased the infiltration
rate and decreased compaction.
14. Reference 2.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates Subtrend: 10.3 Complementary forage seedings
Ecological Effect Rating II
TYPE OF EFFECT 195?2010 Factors/Rationale
Aquatic 0_ 0_ Potential increase in runoff (during renovation)
Terrestrial 0. -1 Plant diversity decreased with monoculture
Human Health o 0
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
The overall ecological effect from this trend is expected to be relatively insignificant. The growing of tame grass
can be expected to have a minor negative effect in 2010 resulting from a decrease in plant diversity.
(2) Research needs:
a. This practice is currently in the experimental stage. As the system is further developed,.research is needed
on its environmental impact.
_!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Exhibit 10.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Range and Pasture Management
. Trend: 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates
Subtrend: 10.3 Complementary Forage Seedings
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Information is not available 1n
the literature from which esti-
mates can be made on the exten-
siveness of trends towards comple-
mentary forage seedings. The
range and pasture panel estimated
the extensiveness to be of minor
importance in 1976 but expected
it to be of moderate significance
in 2010.
1. The range and pasture (Work-
shop) assigned the following
extensiveness ratings:
IL'i
1
2010
3
1. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Environmental Inplica-
tions of Trends in Agriculture
and Silviculture: Phase I - The
Evaluation Workshop Summary (Draft)
Prepared by Development Planning
and Research Associates, 1977.
Productivity Productivity in both forage and
beef is enhanced under this sys-
tem. Improvement in vegetation
can be expected with less pressure
on ranges from overgrazing.
00
2. Permanent pastures used (under
complementary forage seeding
systems) balance the yearly
forage supply and prevents over-
grtzing. Increased production
has been shown in forage-produc-
tioi studies involving native
prairie and crested wheatgrass.
3. A comparison of continuous grazing
and a system using crested wheat-
grass and native grass found that
herbage production was about the
sairw under each system even though
the latter system supported 32 per-
cent; more animal unit months of
grazing and produced 70 percent
more pounds of beef per acre.
4. A comparison of grazing under a con-
tinuous system and under a system
utilizing 20 percent crested wheat-
grass, 50 percent native grass, and
30 percent Russian wlldrye found that
25.6 acres were required per animal
unit under the continuous system as
opposad to 11.4 acres under the
complementary system.
Stoddart, L.A., A. D. Smith, and
T. W. Box, Range Management.
McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y.,
1975.
Lodge, R.W., "Complementary Grazing
Systems for Sandhills of the
Northern Great Plains," J. Range
Management 16:240-244, 1561!
Smoliak, S., "Grazing Studies on
Native Range, Crested Wheatgrass
und Russian Wildrye Pastures,"
J. Range Management. 21:47-50,
1968.
Resource Use The utilization of this system in-
creases the requirement for ferti-
lizers, pesticides and land with the
provision of additional pasturage
(Reference 2).
Continued . . .
-------
Page 2
Environmental
Effects Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Surface Water The increasing use of this system
can be expected to have both short-
term and long-term effects on the
quality of surface water. In the
short-term, potential pollution by
nutrients and pesticides may occur
during pasture renovation. In the
long term, decreases in sedimenta-
tion can be expected with improved
vegetation cover with prevention of
overgrazing. The overall impact
should be relatively minor.
For information on the effects of over-
grazing, refer to research findings in
Subtrend 10.4.
Groundwater
Potential pollution from nutrients
and pesticides can be expected from
pasture renovation. The overall
impact is considered to be minor.
son
The overall Impact of this trend 1s
expected to be minor. A possible
reduction in soil compaction would
occur with the decrease in over-
grazing. Potential soil pollution
may occur with pasture renovation.
-------
Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
o
CD
Trend: 10. Grazing
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Practices
Ecological
1985
+1
+1
0
ana Stocking Rates
Effect Rating I/
2010
+1
+3
0
Subtrend: 10.4 Controlled livestock qrazinq (proper use)
Factors/Rationale
Greater plant diversity
SUMMARY STATEMENT
(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:
This subtrend is expected to have a minor beneficial effect on the aquatic system. Greater plant diversity would have
a beneficial effect on the terrestrial system. This effect was expected to be moderate by 1985.
(2) Research needs:
a. There is a need for research of the nutrient and sediment runoff associated with controlled grazing.
\J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=ma.jor ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negitive or adverse effect.
2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.
-------
Environmental
Effects
rv>
o
Exhibit 10.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends. Range and Pasture Management
Trend: 10. Grazing Practices'and Stocking Rates
Subtrend: 10.4 Controlled livestock grazing (Proper use)
Page 1
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness In 1970, an estimated 85.7
million acres or 10% of the
grazed forest-range was being
overgrazed; close to 85% of
this occurred in the Eastern
forests. The goal under the
Forest and Rangeland Renew-
able Resource Planning Act
of 1974 is to reduce the over-
grazed areas to zero by 2000.
No estimates are made on over-
grazing on pastures.
1. The following acres of forest-
range were under exploitive
management (overgrazing) in 1970:
Total
Ecosystem grazed
~ (miTTTE.)
Western range 360.8
Western forests 97.2
Great Plains 217.1
Eastern forests 159,9
Total 835.0
The exl.ensiveness of the trend towards
proper stocking rates for both range
and fatture was rated as follows:
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
The Nations Range Resources,
Forest Resource, Rep. No. 19,
1972.
1976
1985
3
1985
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Environmental Implica-
tions of Trends in Agriculture
and Silviculture:Phase I -
The Evaluation Workshop Summary,
Prepared by Development Planning
and Research Associates, Inc.1977.
Productivity The trend towards proper
stocking rates will increase
the production and quality
of forages on ranges and to
a lesser degree on pastures.
2. High-condition, prop'fly grazed range 2.
will produce more pounds of usable
forage than the total production in
pounds of forage from the low-condi-
tion, overused range.
3. A study of grazing in Kansas found 3.
that heavily grazed pasture provided
an average of only 121 days grazing
while moderately and lightly grazed
pastures sustained 180 days Of use.
4. Frequent studies cf effects of dif- 4.
ferent intensities of grazing upon
vegetation have shown that heavy
grazing universally reduces the ca-
pacity of the range and causes un-
desirable vegetation changes.
5. A study on grazing effects on vege- 5.
tation on South Dakota rangeland
found that over twice as much live
vegetation, standing dead and mulch
was produced under light grazing as
under heavy.
6. Heavy grazing reduces the preferred 6.
forage species and pron.otes the In-
vasion on the range of less desirable
forages.
Bell, A.M., Range!and Management
for Livestock Production, Umv.
of Okla. Press, Norman, OK 1973.
Launchbaugh, J.L., "The Effect of
Stocking Rate on Cattle Gains and
on Native Shortgrass Vegetation 1n
West-central Kansas, ' Kan. Agr.
Expt. Sta. Bull. 394, 1957.
Stoddart, L.A., A. D. Smith, and
T. W. Box, Range Management,
McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y.,1975.
Hanlon, C. L., A. R. Kuhlman,
C. J. Erickson, and J. K. Lewis,
"Grazing Effects on Runoff and
Vegetation on Western South
Dakota Rangeland," J. Range
Management, 23:418-42,, 1970.
Oar-^son, D.A., "Responses of
Individual Plants to Harvesting,"
Botanical Review.29:532-594.1963.
-------
Exhibit 13.4. (Continued)
Environmental
Effects
Resource Use
no
o
ro
Page 2
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
The trend toward proper
stocking rates will tend to
decrease the requirements for
pesticide and fertilizer in
range and pasture preser-
vation. The overall reduc-
tion is expected to be
minor.
Surface Water Studies were not found in the
literature which related
stocking rates specifically
to sedimentation and nutrient
runoff. However, based on a
number of studies on runoff it
can be concluded that the trend
towards proper stocking rates
will reduce nutrient and sedi-
ment loadings in surface water.
A study of grazing effects on runoff
on western South Dakota rangeland
found that:
a. Seasonal means of runoff associ-
ated with light, moderate, and
heavy grazing were significantly
different from each other.
b. Watersheds with heavy grazing
ha 'e runoff from short, intense
storms as well as from long dur-
at" on storms.
c. Runoff from long duration storms
maybe as much from lightly grazed
watersheds as from the heavy and
moderate.
7. In the California winter grass-
land, research found that heavily
grazed plots yielded 9.25 inches
while lightly grazed yielded only
4.02 inches.
8. A study of the effects of grazing
on erosion and runoff in the
Chaparral watersheds in central
Arizona found that runoff was not
affected by grazing intensities.
Reference 5
7. Leacos, L.G., "Water yield as In-
fluenced by Degree of Grazing 1n
the California Winter Grasslands,
J. Range Management.
8. Rich, L. R., and H. G. Reynolds,
"Grazing in Relation to Runoff
and Erosion in Some Chaparral
Watersheds in Central Arizona,
J. Range Management, 16:322-326,
1963.
Groundwater
The trend towards proper
stocking rates is expected to
increase leaching of nutri-
ents into groundwater.
Infiltrometer studies conducted on
native rangeland at Cottonwood,
S. Dak., showed that during the
first 30 minutes of rainfall the
water intake rate on heavily used
pasture was 1.40 inches/hr. while
on lightly used, it was 3.19 inches.
Rauzi, F-. and C. L. Hanson,
"Water Intake and Runoff as
Affected by Intensity of Grazing,
J. Range Management, 19:351-356,
1966.
Soil
High stocking rates results in
soil compaction and increased
erosion (Ref. 9). Consequently
the trend towards proper stocking
rates can be expected to enhance
soil stabilization.
10. U.S. Department of Agriculture,
RPA-ARecommended Renewable Re-
lource Program, Forest Service
Environmental Statement, 1976.
Continued . . .
-------
Exhibit 10.4. (Continued) pa e 3
Environmental Research
Effects Conclusions Findings References
A1r Optimizing stocking rates 1s
not expected to effect air
quality except indirectly
through improved ground
cover (Reference 9).
-------
APPENDIX B
DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED
SILVICULTURAL TRENDS
The five trends identified in Phase I which were selected for assessment in
Phase II are listed in Exhibit B-l. A total of 16 subtrends were evaluated.
A literature search was conducted for each subtrend's extensiveness of use,
productivity effects, changes in resource use, pollutant changes by
media, and other environmental effects.
The information obtained from literature searches is summarized in Exhibits
1.1 through 5.1. To the extent possible, quantitative data were sought
and included. Also, the extensiveness ratings arrived at in the Phase I
evaluation workshop are included for each subtrend. These extensiveness
ratings were based on an index scale of 1 to 5, with one representing minor
and five major; and, these ratings reflect the judgments of the Composite
Phase I panel of silvicultural professionals.
Exhibit B-l.
Summary of selected Phase II trends and
subtrends in silviculture
Trend
Subtrend
1. Access to Timber Resource
2. Site Preparation
3. Log Extraction
4. Utilization
5. Cutting System
1.1 Permanent road construction
1.2 Road maintenance
1.3 Project road construction
1.4 Road reconstruction
2.1 Log extraction
2.2 Mechanical preparation
2.3 Burning prescription
2.4 Chemical treatment
2.5 Fertilizer treatment
2.6 Soil moisture control
3.1 Harvest unit layout
3.2 Equipment use and development
4.1 Extraction residue recovery
4.2 Minimum size and quality extension
4.3 Species use enlargement
5.1 Clearcutting
_— _______
-------
Exhibit 1.1. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends
Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource
Subtrend: 1.1 Permanent Road Construction
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness New road construction 1s an activity
limited almost completely to the
West in gaining access to uncut old
growth. It will continue through
2010, but will be completed shortly
thereafter.
ro
o
en
1, Evaluation Workshop Ratings—
1976 3 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 1 ,
2. Road construction will proceed
at between 9,000 and 11,000
miles per year.
3. There are now 248,000 miles
In logging road systems of the
Pacific Coast, with 6,200 miles
rebuilt each year.
1, Development Planning and Research
Associates, "Environmental Implica-
tions of Trends in Agriculture and
Silviculture", Vol. I, 200 pp.,
1977.
2. U.S. Forest Services, RPA - A
Recommended Renewable Resource
Program, U.S. Dept. Agr1.,
650 pp. 1976.
3. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
tection of Water Quality, Region
X, 312 pp. 1975.
Productivity Productivity of Western forest re-
sources will be linked directly to
the amount of new road construction,
since old growth timber will supply
most of Western output.
Resource Use Forest land will be taken out of
production by construction of the
permanent road system with a reduc-
tion 1n the forest resource base.
No research was found revealing any
estimate of areas Involved.
There is a need for equipment de-
signed to construct roads of
smaller dimension but capable of
handling logging traffic. Road
design and layout will be planned
more Intensively.
4. For each square mile of land har-
vested, 5 miles of road must be
built.
5. Road building equipment for high-
way construction has been used for
forest access roads. It 1s over
built for the job.
6. Road location and design are being
examined with option of examining
many alternatives through use of
computer technology.
4. Summer, H. C., "Managing; Steep
Land for Timber Production 1n the
Northwest", J. Forestry 71(5):
5. U.S. Forest Service, "Region 6
Timber Road Construction Audit",
U.S. Dept. AgrL, 1973.
6. Burke D., "New Tools Allow Ex-
amination of Alternatives Speedi-
ly", Forest Industries. Vol. 102
(7), p, 46, J975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water -
Sediments
Road construction will continue to
create sediment loadings despite
Improved road construction prac-
tices; however, practices should
reduce the adverse Impacts. Off-
setting the effects of better prac-
tices will be the effects of entering
Increasingly steeper and more dif-
ficult terrain for road building.
Roads once constructed and stabil-
ized will produce Uttlt added
sediment yield.
7. Available literature did not pro-
vide any specific estimates of the
effects of road construction, but
sediment production 1s much higher
from road building than from any
other activity.
8. Average suspended sediment In
Western Oregon streams 1s 1.9 to
131 tons per acre. Eighty per-
cent of sediment production 1s
from roads, 20 percent from
logging.
7, Megahan, W. F. and J. W. K1dd,
"Effects of Logging Roads on
Sediment Production Rates In
Idaho Bathollth," U.S. Dept.
Agrl., For. Serv. Res. Pap. Int.
123. 1972.
8. Anderson, H.W., "Suspended
sediment discharge as related to
stream flow topography, soil and
land use," Transaction, Am. Geo-
physical Union, 35(2) 268-281,
1953.
continued , . ,
-------
Exhibit 1.1 (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Hater Yield
Water Flow
Water Quality
ro
o
01
Pollutant Changes
In Media: Soil
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Air
Other Environ-
mental Effects:
Aesthetics
No appreciable change from present
rates.
Depending on degree of engineering
and precautions taken to handle
peak storm flow along and under
roads, flow could be affected with
peak bursts 1f ditches or culverts
are obstructed.
Water quality in watersheds where
road construction occurs will
probably suffer less 1n future
than it has in the past. Effects
are not felt very far downstream.
No Information 1s available on the
predictions of change.
Mass wasting will be a continuing
problem of some severity, but
probably lessened with greater
attention to protection.
9. In certain fragile areas of the
West, slump and mass wasting
occur as a result of road con-
struction - as much as 700 times
that of undisturbed forests on
steep ground.
9. Swanston, 0. IV & F.J. Swanson,
"Timber Harvesting Mass Erosion
and Steepland Forest Geomorpho-
logy in the Pacific Northwest",
Geomorphology and Engineering,
199-221, Donald R. Coates,
Editor, Dowden, Hutchinson and
Ross Inc., Stroudsburg, Pa.,
1976.
Short term dust creation will occur,
but It will occur generally in re-
mote areas away from human habita-
tion. The consequence of this dust
1s not known.
New roads are being designed to
minimize visibility for distant
viewers by the NFS. While the
roads will still be unpleasant
for many viewers, the Impacts
should be lessened.
10. Computer technology 1s used
1n selecting road locations
from many alternatives.
10. Burke, D., "Automated Analysis of
Timber Access Road Alternatives,"
U.S. Dept. AgrL, For. Service
Pac. Northwest Forest and Range
Experiment Sta. PNW. 123, 1976.
-------
Exhibit 1.2. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource
Subtrend: 1.2 Road maintenance
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Maintenance will continue on all
permanent access roads where
harvest and silviculture treat-
ments occur.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 ,
2. Guidelines have been established
for minimizing environmental
damages from maintenance.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. cit.
2. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
tection of Hater Quality, Region
XI, 312 pp., 1975.
Resource Use
No significant changes are
anticipated.
Productivity
Productivity is not directly
affected.
r-o
o
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water - Sediment
Chemicals
Sediment loadings can be expected
to occur from maintenance (e.g.
road grading in wet weather), but
effects will be short lived.
A trend toward sealing and sur-
facing roads may result in some
chemicals being carried to
streamflow.
3. Logging roads in Region 6 are
being surfaced for better erosion
control, lower maintenance, and
lower vehicle operating costs.
3. U.S. Forest Service Region VI
Engineering Office. Pers. Coram.
October 1976.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soils
No changes are anticipated.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
Some dust will be generated at In-
tervals, but it will be far removed
from population centers.
Other Environmental
Effects: Wildlife
None beyond those Incurred by road
construction.
Other Environmental
Effects: Aesthetics
No changes are anticipated.
Other Environmental
Effects: Fisheries
No changes are anticipated if pre-
cautions are observed and guide-
lines followed.
-------
ro
o
c»
Exhibit 1.3. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends
Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource
Subtrend: 1.3 Project road construction
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Project roads can be expected to be
built 1n harvest areas throughout
U.S.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings—
1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 3 .
2. In the East, road systems are
mostly established, or can be
reopened with ease.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op_. cit.
2. Ursic S. J., "Harvesting Southern
Forests: a Threat to Hater Qual-
ity?" Nonpolnt Sources of Mater
Pollution, 145-151, Proc. S. E.
Regional Conference, Blacklsburg,
Va., 1975.
Productivity The expected trend 1s towards mini-
mizing project road distances to tap
given timber harvest areas.
In South and North, the construction
of project roads will be minima!.
Tendency in past has been to over-
build road distances where ground
is easy, and to hold to low grades
regardless of Implications of
shortened distances.
3. U.S. Forest Service, "Region 6
Timber and Road Construction
AUDIT", U.S. Dept. Agr., 1973.
Resource Use Forest land will be taken out of pro-
duction temporarily, but will be
allowed to revert. Compaction can be
expected to reduce growing area.
Pollutant Changes
in Media
Trend will follow that of new road
construction (Subtrend 1.1). As roads
become abandoned in the West, measures
can be expected to be taken to reduce
environmental damages. No signif-
icant Impacts are anticipated.
4. In Pacific Northwest, methods of
restoring road surfaces to original
slope are being used.
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
tection of Water Quality, Region
X. 312 pp. 1975.
-------
Exhibit 1.4. Environmental assessment of selected silvlcultural trends
Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource
Subtrend: 1.4 Road Reconstruction
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Road reconstruction will parallel
new (Subtrend 1.1) construction in
order to open up regenerating
areas and gain entry for
cultural treatments.
ro
o
I. Evaluation Workshop Ratings—
1976 _1_; 1985 _2_; 2010 _3_.
2. Reconstruction 1n NFS forests 1s
expected to reach almost 30,000
miles per year.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op_. c1t.
2. U.S. Forest Service, RPA - A
Recommended Renewable Resource
Program, U.S. Dept. Agr., 658
pp and app., 1976.
Productivity Some productive forest land will
go out of production, either tem-
porarily or permanently depending
on class of road.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media
Changes will generally be less than
those associated with new road con-
struction.
3. Some road reconstruction 1n West
requires more soil disturbance
than 1n original construction.
3. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
tection of 'Water
Region X, 312 pp, 1975.
-------
Exhibit 2.1. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends
Trend: 2. Site Preparation
Subtrend: 2.1 Log Extraction
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
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o
Extenslveness Site preparation overall Is an Im-
portant trend since certain methods
are extremely damaging to soil pro-
file. Log extraction is one of the
less damaging methods. Since this
Is a method for preparing sites after
harvesting old growth in the West, 1t
will decrease in importance as old
growth is removed.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings
1976 3 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 2
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op_. cit.
Productivity Prompt regeneration can result 1n
significant Increase in productivity
1n the period between first and
second harvest. Trend 1s toward
Immediate site preparation following
harvest, and restocking within the
year following.
If planting can be done Im-
mediately after harvesting 1n
southern pines, yield can be
Increased. Thus, site preparation
is an important step.
Committee on Renewable Resources
for Industrial Materials (CORRIM),
Renewable Resources for Indus-
trial Materials. National Academy
of Sciences, 265 pp, Washington
D.C., 1976.
Resource Use Land 1s being used more efficiently
by being returned to production more
rapidly; logging methods themselves
help prepare site.
3. Logging methods can be used to
prepare sites, including sup-
plemental attachments to yarding
systems and skidding along contour.
3. Ward, F. R. and J. W. Russell
"High Lead Scarification: An
Alternative for Site Preparation
and Fire Hazard Reduction", Fire
Management, Fall 3-4, 9, 1975"!
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Surface
Water - Sediments
Water Yield
Water Flow
No adverse impacts are anticipated
unless log movement is parallel to
slope, In which case water detach-
ment and transport of soil will
occur.
No change anticipated.
No change anticipated unless up or
downslope log extraction occurs.
4. Twenty percent of soil sediment
.discharge is expected to result
from harvesting activities.
4. Anderson, H.W., "Relative Con-
tributions of Sediment from
Source Areas and Transport Pro-
cesses," Proc. Symposium, "Forest
Land Uses and Stream Environment*.
pp 55-63, O.S.U. Corvallls,
Oregon, 1971.
Reference f 4.
Chemicals
Nutrients
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil -
Mass Wasting
None Involved.
No change anticipated.
None anticipated as any result of site Reference * 4.
preparation by this method, unless
excessive up or downslope extraction
occurs.
Erosion
Some erosion may occur, but H 1s not
expected to be extensive.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: A1r -
Dust
Some dust may be generated, but 1t 1s
not expected to be of significant
consequence.
-------
Exhibit 2.2. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
Trend: 2. Site Preparation
Subtrend: 2.2 Mechanical Preparation
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Varies greatly by region of the
country, with greatest utilization
in the South and the Pacific Coast.
The trend is expected to be away
from mechanical means because of
impact on soils and water. On the
Pacific Coast, normal logging
operations will provide much of
the site preparation required.
ro
1. Evaluation Workshop Rating —
1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 3 .
2. In the South, some 29.6 million
acres are considered to need con-
version to pine type, Involving
site preparation of some kind.
3. Between 1967 and 1977, forest
industry was expected to drain
2 million acres and prepare
another 3.7 million acres for
planting.
4. Intensive mechanical site
preparation 1s the most serious
erosion problem In the Southern
hill country.
5. In the Pacific Coast, 3 million
acres of alder are convertible
to conifer species.
6. In the West, specialized modifica-
tions of standards cable yarding
systems are being developed to
scarify logged sites.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. cit.
2. Guttenberg, S., "Forestry Goals
and Practices on Large Ownerships
in the South,' J. Forestry. 67(7):
456-461, 1969.
4. Ursic, S. J., "Pine Management
Influences the Southern Center
Resource", Proc. Symposium of
Young Pines, 1974.
5. Committee on Renewable Resources
for Industrial Materials (CORRIM),
Renewable Resources for Indus-
trial Materials, National Academy
of Sciences, 265 pp, Washington
O.C., 1976.
6. Ward, f. R. and J. U. Russell,
"High Lead Scarification: An
Alternative for Site Preparation
and Fire Hazard Reduction," Fire
Management, Fall 3-4, 9, 197FT
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water
Serious problems will continue if
recommended precautions are Ignored.
7. Loss of forest floor, soil compac-
tion and sealing macro channels
change surface flow.
7. Beasley, R. S., "Potential Effects
of Forest Management on Stormflow
Survey and Water Quality," Proc.
Hiss. Water Resources Conference,
-------
Exhibit 2.3, Environmental assessment of selected sIlvlcuKural trends
Trend: 2. Site Preparation
Subtrend: 2.3 Burning Prescription
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness F1re probably will be used increas-
ingly as a partial substitute for
mechanical site preparation as well
as other uses (e.g. timber, stand
improvement, fuel reduction).
ro
ro
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings—
1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 3 .
2. Annual needs for prescribed burn-
ing amounts to about 12 million
acres per year, 95% in South.
How much is used in site prepara-
tion is not known.
3. Substituting burning 1n place of
mechanical site preparation will
conserve energy and do far less
damage. There 1s no need to pre-
pare as thoroughly as 1s done
with mechanical preparation.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. cit.
2. HcNamara, E. F., "F1re Management
on State and Forest Lands," Proc.
1974 National Convention, Soc.
Am. Foresters, New York, 1975.
3. Smith, D. M., ""Modern Timber
Management with Petroleum,"
Proc. 1976 National Convention
Society of American ForestersT
1976.
Productivity Productivity can be improved
temporarily by fire used in site
preparation as result of nutrients
being released.
4. The use of prescribed burning may
be decreasing In the South as re-
sult of air quality standards
being tightened.
5. F1re is least energy - demanding
method of site preparation.
4. Zobell, B., "Significance of
Forest Renewable and Tree Im-
provement to Forest Fanners,"
Forest Fanner. Vol. 35. No. 6,
p 44, 1976.
5. Reference i 3.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water
Short term water yield and flow in-
creases can be expected until new
vegetative cover establishes;
otherwise no significant effects
can be expected.
Other Environ- Wildlife and vegetation undergo
mental Effects: complete changes, with new eco-
Wildlife systems being created.
Other Environ-
mental Effects:
Aesthetics
Short term adverse viewing exper-
iences can be anticipated.
-------
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CO
Exhibit 2.4. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
Trend: 2. Site Preparation
Subtrend: 2.4. Chemical Treatment
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Chemicals' Importance as a bene-
ficial tool in site preparation 1s
expected to increase. Federal lands
are expected to receive extensive
chemical treatment. A restraint
to widespread use 1s cost.
1. Workshop Panel Ratings--
1976 1 ; 1985 _2; 2010 2 .
2. In the South where the most in-
tensive forestry is practiced,
less than 1 per cent of commer-
cial forest had pesticide applica-
tions. On the Pacific Coast, State
of Washington, 0.8 per cent had
pesticides applied.
3. Chemicals are included 1n Forest
Service Best Management Guide-
lines for site preparation.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., 0£. c i t.
2. Johnson, N. E., "Pesticide Usage
1n Forestry," J. Forestry, 5:546-
548, 1972.
3. Oregon State University, S1lv1-
cultural Chemicals and Protection
of Water Quality, (draft), Cor-
vail is, Oregon, 1976.
Productivity Productivity of wood fibre will be
Increased by shortening the period
for establishing a new stand of tim-
ber. But applications of chemicals
alone cannot accomplish this.
Subsequent follow up is required.
Resource Use Total area receiving chemical treat-
ment 1s extremely small when com-
pared to the total area forested.
Reference I 2.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water
Effects of chemical treatment
on surface water are not expected
to be significant.
4. Guidelines establishing pro-
tection by buffer strips around
water bodies will prevent any
fallout of herbicides applied
aerially. Herbicides have least
chance of damaging aquatic fauna.
5. In site preparation, application
are generally made only once with
maximum of twice In a rotation.
6. Tree Injected with arsenicals
showed no Increase in stream
water arsenic content.
4. Reference I 3.
5. Reference I Z.
6. Norrls, L. A. and D. C. Morre.
"Behavior and Impact of Organic
Arsenical Herbicides 1n the For-
est, U.S. Dept. Agr. for S«r PNW
Experiment Station. 1974.
Continued
-------
Exhibit 2.4 (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Soil
No significant effects are antic-
ipated.
7. Commonly used herbicides break
down organically. Residues of
2,4,5-T at concentrations of 11-
12 ppm drop to 0.2-0.5 ppm within
12 months. They do not travel
laterally.
7. Morris, L. A., "Behavior and Ira-
pact of Some Herbicides 1n For-
ests," John S. Wright Forestry
Conference, Purdue U., West
Lafayette, Ind., 1975.
Other Environ-
mental Effects:
Wildlife
Vegetation
Aquatic Habitat
Human Health
Disruptions will continue to occur
with abrupt changes in vegetation.
Broad leafed vegetation 1s elim-
inated under chemical treatment.
The aquatic habitat may be adversely
affected 1f chemicals are applied
directly to surface water. However,
guidelines have been established which
are expected to minimize the chances
of this direct contamination.
The total use of herbicides In
site preparation nationwide Is
expected to be so low that human
health should not be significantly
affected.
8. Guidelines established for min-
imizing drift of aerially
applied chemicals.
8. Grathowskl, H., "S1lv1cultural
Use of Herbicides In Northwest
Forests, U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest
Service. Tech. Rep. PNW 37, 44 pp,
1975.
-------
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en
Exhibit 2.5. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
Trend: 2. Site Preparation
Subtrend: 2.5. Fertilizer Treatment
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Fertilizer treatment 1s used pri-
marily 1n the South, where moist,
phosphate deficient soils need
nutrient supplement for the growth
of loblolly pine.
1. Workshop Panel Ratings--
1976 1 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 2 .
2. Used only to add phosphorus to
swampy areas drained for loblolly
pine establishment In the South.
Phosphorus applications have not
affected water quality to any
measurable degree.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. c1t.
2. Personal communication with George
Dlssmeyer, U.S. Forest Service,
Atlanta, Georgia, 1977.
Productivity The creation of new pine forests
will reflect an Increase In pro-
ductivity.
3. About 2.0 million acres of swamp
land 1n South are expected to be
drained for pine production by
1977.
3. McClurkin. D. C. and P. D. Duffy,
"Evaluating Impact of Forest Site
Preparation on Soil and Water
Quality in the United States,"
Proc. Fourth N. Am. Forest Soils
Conf., Quebec, Canada, 1973.
Resource Use Fertilizer requirements are ex-
pected to range from 5,000 to
20,000 tons per year. If swamp
land is prepared at a steady rate,
the South would need 4,500 to
18,000 metric tons per year.
Amount of swamp land remaining
is unknown.
4. Phosphates are expected to be
applied at rates of 50 to 200
Ibs/acre.
4. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
tection of Water Quality, Region
X, 312 pp.. 1975.
Pollutant Changes:
Water
Phosphate levels 1n surface water
are expected to Increase; however,
the increase will be relatively
minor.
5. Little 1s known about water
quality changes as result of
phosphate fertilizing, but
slight losses from fertilized
sites Indicate movement Into
water.
5. Sanderford, S.G., "Forest Fer-
tilization and Water Quality In
the North Carolina Piedmont,"
Tech. Report 53, North Carolina
State Fertilizer Coop,, 42 pp.,
1976,
-------
Exhibit 2.6. Environmental assessment of selected s11v1cultur«l trends
Trend: 2. Site Preparation
Subtrend: 2.6. Soil Moisture Control
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness About 2.0 million acres of wetland
are expected to be drained In the
South by 1977. (Reference 2)
ro
cr>
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratlngs-
1976 2 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 1
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. c1t.
2. McClurkln, D. C. and P. D. Duffy.
"Evaluation Impact of Forest Site
Preparation on Soil and Water
Quality 1n the United States."
Proc. Fourth N. Am. Forest Soils
Conf., Quebec, Canada, 1973.
Productivity Swamp lands with zero productivity
are being converted to pine produc-
ing sites.
Resource Use Drainage of swamp lands represents
conversion to productive land use
from non-productive use.
Pollutant Changes—
Media: Surface Water
Wildlife and
Vegetation
Slight Increases 1n stream flow 1n
watersheds draining swampy areas
can be expected.
Plant species and wildlife existing
1n the wetlands will be replaced with
the limited diversity of pine forests.
-------
Exhibit 3.1. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
Trend: 3. Log Extractions
Subtrend: 3.1. Harvest Unit Layout - Intensity of Effort
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Planning will play an Increasingly
important role in Western old growth
timber stands 1n determining locations,
size of harvest units, design or shape
of cutting areas, considerations to
visibility, road access, and other
aspects of multiple use.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 4 .
2. Techniques are being developed
for gauging aesthetic Impacts of
logging on roadside viewing.
3. The development of computer pro-
grams for designing harvest
operations and determining road
locations facilitate the study
of many alternatives.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. c1t.
2. Polter, D. R. and J. A. Wagar,
"Techniques for Inventorying Man
Hade Impacts on Roadway Environ-
ments," U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest
Services, Research Paper, PNW
121, 1971.
3. Burke, "Doyle, Running Skylines
Reduce Access Road Needs Mini-
mize Harvest Impact," Forest In-
dustries, Vol. 102:(7), p. 46,
1975.
3a. "Topometrics, A System for Evalu-
ating Route Alternatives," Nat,
Agr. Sciences Trans. Res. Bd. Sp.
Reproduction 160, pp. 141-145,
1975.
Productivity In terms of roundwood production,
productivity 1s not expected to in-
crease, except to the extent that
planning may aid in increasing
utilization.
Resource Use The only increase in resource use
expected is in the field of utiliza-
tion, especially in residues of old.
growth logging, and whale tree
utilization in the South (see
Trend 4, Utilization):
pollutant Changes;
Surface Water -
Sediment
Increasing control pver movement pf
water and transport of sediment? will
b§ gained but problems, wm continue
to persist especially in the sheep
of the westt
Continuing research and development
of programs for more effective man-
agement are being formulated-
U.S. Forest Service, A National
Program for Researc
and
men
pn Ngn-Point Source
ution on Forest
dater'
•flnd, Hash, p. C.. (Review Draft),
Washington, P-fil,
197§,
Continued
-------
Exhibit 3.1 (Continued) p fi 2
Environmental Research
Fffects Conclusions Findings References
Wildlife No substantial changes from usual
harvesting planning are expected
unless planning 1s directed specif-
ically at habitat modification as
result of harvest plans.
ro
•—' Fisheries Increasing protection of existing
temperatures and streambed structure
is expected.
Aesthetics Continuing development of harvesting 5. Plans in Pacific Coast include 5. Bureau of Land Management, Timber
and Viewing plans to reduce or minimize effect road screening, distant view Management Plan, Final Environ-
on viewer of harvested lands can considerations, and successive mental Impact Statement, 584 pp.
be expected. harvests hidden by uncut bands Washington D.C., 1976.
of timber.
-------
ro
Exhibit 3.2. Environmental assessment of selected sllvicultural trends
Trend: 3. Log Extraction
Subtrend: 3.2. Equipment Use and Development
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness On the Pacific Coast, a continuing
need will exist for large equipment
modified to reduce environmental
damages. This will probably involve
the development of lighter more
mobile yarding equipment for entry
into younger stands for thinning.
In the South, a trend 1s developing
for equipment designed for whole
tree handling of timber of uniform
size.
1. Workshop Panel Ratings--
1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 .
2. Increasing use of modified
cable systems 1s reducing road
needs.
3. Light yarding equipment coming
into use in Pacific Coast 1s more
efficient and less damaging 1n
thinning operations.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. cit.
2. Burke, Doyle, "Running Skylines
Reduce Access Road Needs Minimize
Harvest Site Impact," Forest In-
dustries, Vol. 102:{7), p. 46,
Kellogg, L. and E. Aurlich, "Pre-
bunch and Swing Technique May
Reduce Thinning Costs," Forest
Industries, Vol. 104(2), p. 30,
1977.
Productivity Environmental constraints can be ex-
pected to limit productivity 1n a
number of situations, but the overall
trend is toward increasing productiv-
ity, especially in regenerating stands
where thinning takes place.
Resource Use The requirement for resources used In
developing and supplying equipment
will increase significantly, especially
with the demands in the North and
South.
4. Timber production will increase
markedly in the North and South:
North—from 47 million m3 to 94
million m3; South from 159 mm tir to
329 mm m3; and West—from 165 mm m3
to 270 ran m3. A doubling of pro-
duction Implies a corresponding In-
crease In equipment needs.
"Outlook for Timber 1n the United
States," For. Serv. Rept. 20,
367 pp., 1973, USDA Forest Ser-
vice, RPA, A Recommended Renew-
able Resource Program, 658 pp,
and App., 1976.
Pollutant Changes
in Media; Surface
Water
A1r
Soil
Equipment changes are expected to
reduce surface water pollution.
Exhaust emissions and dust are ex-
pected to increase with the Increase
in woods activity.
A trend toward the use of high flota-
tion tires In skidders can be expected.
5. Skidder wheel tracks need 12 years
to recover from compaction, while
the skid marks of logs require 8
years.
5. Dickerson, B.P., "Soil Compaction
After Tree Length Skidding In
Northern Mississippi," Soil Scl.
Am. J.. 40(6):96, 1969.
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Exhibit 4.1. Environmental assessment of selected sllvicultural trends
Trend 4: 4. Utilization
Subtrend: 4.1. Extraction Residue Recovery
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extenslveness Significant increases are expected to
occur in recovery of extraction res-
idues. Currently, almost a half of
the total unused residues are being
generated 1n the Pacific Coast forests.
Uhole tree utilization is expected to
double in the South. Complete tree
removal has the potential of increasing.
utilization by about 25 percent. The
expected increase 1n extraction res-
idue recovery can be attributed both
to economic and social factors as well
as technological developments.
ro
ro
o
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings—
1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 1 .
2. Almost one half the total unused
woods residues 1n the nation are
generated in Pacific Coast forests.
3. Bark 1s developing as a new energy
source, via conversion to gas or
liquid fuel.
4. Costs of bringing in woods residue
vary from $34 to $43 per ton for
chips and $31 to $40 for hogged
fuel.
5. Potential for increasing utiliza-
tion through complete tree removal
Is estimated at an additional 25
percent. Current utilization of
30 cm stump height and 10 cm
utilizable top diameter leaves
half of the biomass of a tree In
the woods.
6.'In the South, whole tree utiliza-
tion in hardwoods is expected to
increase biomass utilization from
30 percent to 67 percent.
7. More complete utilization will:
-Add over ^ million tons of utH1z-
able raw material annually
-Protect soils
-Decrease air pollution
-Reduce debris In streams
-Improve scenic values
-Improve recreational opportun-
ities
-Reduce public criticism.
8. Logging residues cost $30 per dry
ton delivered, as opposed to $2.50
for hogged mill wastes $10 for
planer shavings, and $20 for chips.
9. Advances in materials handling such
as grapple yarder Is helping to re-
cover more residues from logging
operation.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. cit.
2. Corder, S. E., "Wood and Bark
Residues for Energy," P. 7, Proc.
Conference, O.S.U., CorvalUs,
1974.
3. U.S. Forest Service, "Properties
and Uses of Bark as an Energy
Source," Dept. Agr. USFS Res.
Paper PNW 31, Forest Research Lab
O.S.U., CorvalUs, Oregon, 1976.
4. Grantham, J. B., E. M. Estap, H.
Tarkow and T. C. Adams, "Energy
and Raw Material Potential of
Wood Residue In Pacific Coast
States," 1974.
5. Committee on Renewable Resources
for Industrial Materials (CORRIM).
Renewable Resources for Indus-
trial Materials, National Academy
of Sciences, 265 pp., Washington,
D. C., 1976.
6. Koch, P., "Key to Utilization of
Hardwoods: The Shaping Lathe
Headrlg," Forest Industries, 103
(11):48-51. 1976.
7. Grantham, J. B., "Status of Tim-
ber Utilization on Pacific Coast,"
Dept. Agr., Forest Service, Gen.
Tech. Rep. PNW 29, 1976.
8. Reference 7.
9. Reference 3.
Continued
-------
Exhibit 4.1 (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
10. Utilization of tree stem 1s In-
creasing. Younger stands provide
less unmerchantable or cull vol-
umes. Thinnings are taking most
defective material.
10. Ruth, R. H. and A. S. Harris,
"Forest Residues 1n Hemlock
Spruce Forests of Pacific
Northwest and Alaska," U.S.
Dept. Agr. Forest Ser., Gen.
Tech. Rep. 39, 1975.
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ro
Productivity Increasing recovery of material
now left In woods will add sub-
stantially to annual supply of
pulpable fibre and combustible
fuel.
11. One cubic meter of hogged bark
has thermal content of .09 cubic
meters of Number 4 oil.
12. NFS lands have 3 times as much
residue left as private Industry
lands 1n Pacific Northwest. Old
growth will be largely liquidated
In the West between 2020 and 2040.
11. Reference 3.
12. U.S. Forest Service, "Douglas
Fir Supply Study," Regions 5
and 6 PMW, Forest and Range
Exp. Station, Portland, Oregon,
51 pp., 1969.
Resource Use
Resource use will Intensify In
terms of extraction activity per
acre.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Surface Water
Soils
Air
Other Environmen-
tal Effects-
Aesthetics
Other Uses
Wildlife
In general, pollutant changes 1n
media will reflect an Improvement.
However, possibilities will exist
for increased soil disturbance and
road use.
Debris content of streams will be
reduced.
Protection of soil structure by mini-
mizing burning of slash will be offset
to some extent by increased soil dis-
turbance in yarding Increased volumes
of material per unit area.
Air pollution from slash burning will
decrease.
Adverse scenic Impacts will be re-
duced.
Recreation value of logged areas will
Increase during regeneration period.
Access and movement will ba easier
for big game.
13. Tendency should be toward les-
sened public criticism.
14. Opportunities will exist for
easier access, berry picking,
wildlife viewing.
13. Reference 3.
14. Reference 3.
-------
Exhibit 4.2. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends
Trend: 4. Utilization
Subtrend: 4.2. Minimum Size and Quality Extension
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness Significant Increases are expected
1n the practice of minimum size and
quality extension. This trend 1s
particularly apparent in the South.
no
ro
no
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 1 .
2. In the South extracting the whole
tree Including roots facilitates
a 20 percent increase in utlllz-
able fibre.
3. In eastern hardwoods, tops of
harvested trees yielded 7 cubic
meters/acre of sawn products and
23 tons of chippable wood.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. cjt.
2. Koch, P., "Key to Utilization of
Hardwoods: The Sahplng Lathe
Headrlg," Forest Industries, 103
(11):48-51, 1976.
3. Craft, E. P., "Utilizing Hard-
wood Residues, A Case Study in
the Appalachians," U.S. Dept.
Agr., For. Serv. Res., Note NE 22.
Productivity The potential for taking advantage
of unused tops and species will de-
pend on status of Industry, region-
ally and subreglonally.
4. Pacific Coast pulping raw material
1s derived 85 percent from res-
idues of sawmills and plywood
plants.
5. In South material is derived 72.5
percent from roundwood material
27.5 percent from chips (some of
which produced from roundwood.) In
South 45 m3/ha of chippable wood
left after clearcut.
4. Grantham, V. B., "Status of Tim-
ber Utilization on the Pacific
Coast," U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest
Serv., Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW 29,
1976.
5. "1976 Southern Pulpwood Produc-
tion Sets Another Record; up 4
percent," Forest Industries, Vol.
103 (6), June 19, 1976.
5a. Chappell, T. W. and R. C. Beetz,
"Southern Logging Residues;
Opportunity," 0 Forestry 71:11,
p. 688, 1973.
Resource Use Increased utilization through min-
imum size and quality extension will
increase activity per unit area
harvested.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Surface
Water
Soils
If tree pulling and whole tree util-
ization becomes a common practice In
the South, nutrient deficiencies will
occur.
An Increase 1n soil disturbance and
compaction can be expected.
-------
Exhibit 4.3. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
Trend: 4. Utilization
Subtrend: 4.3. Species Use Enlargement
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
Reference
ro
CO
Extenslveness Species use enlargement 1s expected
to Involve the utilization of more
hardwood species of North and South,
and alder and aspen In West.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratlngs-
1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., op. cit.
Productivity Productivity of some areas of country
will Increase as more species become
available but conversion to pure
stands in many instances will prob-
ably tend to decrease future utiliza-
tion in terms of volume.
2. The utilization of hardwood 1n the
South rose from 12.7 million cubic
meters 1n 1964 to 21.4 million In
1974.
2. "Pulpwood Statistics." Forest
Industry, Vol. 103(6), p. 6,
June 1976.
Resource Use Resource use 1s expected to Increase
with the removal of a greater volume
per unit area.
Hardwoods 1n pulp expected to In-
crease from 23 percent of all pulp-
wood production 1n 1970 to 35 percent
by 2010.
"Outlook for Timber," Forest
Service Report 20, 367 pp.,
1973. USDA Forest Service, RPA,
A Recommended Renewable Resource
Program, 658 pp. and App., 1976.
Pollution Changes
1n Media: Surface
Water - Sediments
Soil disturbance should be decreased
especially in the South, where In-
creasing species removal will result
1n less need for heavy equipment 1n
site preparation.
Other Environ-
mental Eff»cts:
Wildlife
Changes will occur with conversion
to monoculture.
-------
Exhibit 5.1. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
Trend: 5. Cutting Systems
Subtrend: 5.1. Clearcuttlng
Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
rsj
ro
Extenslveness Clearcutting as a system 1s Increas-
ing. Evenaged management Is demonstra-
ting greatest potential for maximizing
fibre yield in a number of forest
types, and clearcuttlng provides best
opportunity for establishment of new
stands.
Clearcutting is also target of
criticism because its use, especially
on old growth stands, causes immediate
aesthetic degradation and can result
in damages to water and soil. It
effectively dedicates land to fibre
production to the detriment of other
uses.
Possibility exists for future limiting
of clearcuts on federal lands, result-
Ing from public pressures.
Future trends 1n clearcuttlng will be
to limit visual affront and other
damages by selection of size, shape,
location, use of road screens and
stream buffers.
1. Workshop Panel Ratings—
1976 4 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 S .
2. Most damages associated with
Clearcutting are actually re-
sults of other activities—
railroad logging, road building,
repeated unchecked fares on log-
ging sites, and lack of residue
recovery.
3. A combination of shelpwood and
clearcut in patches has been
adopted as a policy by Bureau of
Land Management 1n conducting
timber sales.
1. Development Planning and Research
Associates, Inc., Environmental
Implications of Trends in
culture and Silviculture, Vol. I,
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 200 pp, 1977.
2. Smith, D.M., Modern Timber Man-
agement Without Petroleum, Proc".,
1976 National Convention Society
of American Foresters, 1976.
3. Bureau of Land Management, Timber
Management, Final Environmental
Impact Statement, 584 pp, Wash-
ington, D.C., 1976.
Productivity Evenaged management favors quick re-
establishment of regeneration, which
effectively shortens rotation. Species
responding are generally desirable in
market and show strong growth char-
acteristics. Consequently, produc-
tivity will be higher where such estab-
lishment replaces unevenaged mixed
stands. Judicious use of clearcut will
Increase productivity of fibre but will
inevitably depreciate other values.
4. Areas opened up by clearcuttlng
favor quick establishment of
species.
5. Of 37 major forest types, clear-
cutting us^ 1n at least 20 as
a standard method.
4. U.S. Forest Service, SHvlcultural
Systems of the Major Forest Types~
of the United States, U.S. Dept.
of Agr., Handbook 445, 124 pp.
5. Reference 4.
Resource Use
NO. changes anticipated-
pollutant Changes
1n Media.: Su.rfa.ce
Hater - Sediment?
cjearputs pan and df) result in sed-
iments and erps.inn but pare in IQ-
'
.
catifln, si'?e and lagging method pan
minimize these.. nrflBi§m§! Trend In
future will be wward §yeh praet1e.es..
§• Clearpntt1nq and harvesting
disturbs mRre than 30 percent ef
the pre-sflll serfage. are»:
g. Reasiey, R-s., "pptentlal Effects
of F9rest Management 9n §t9rmfl9«
Misc. Hater Bes.flnrees Eflnf-7 »?fi.
Continued • , ,
-------
Exhibit 5.1 (Continued)
Page 2
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Water Yield
and Flow
Water Quality
ro
ro
en
Soils - Mass
Wasting
Other Environ-
mental Effects:
Aesthetics
Clearcuttlng should continue to be
a useful tool in increasing water
yield in Rockies through snow en-
trapment in openings created.
Clearcutting on Pacific Coast can re-
sult in short term increases that
drop as vegetation re-establishes.
In Rockies, timing of cut controls
flow and erosion potential.
Exercised with care, clearcuttlng
can be carried out without Impairing
water quality. Ongoing work to min-
imize effects should result 1n more
protection, but temperature and
sediment loads can be affected.
Without close knowledge and care 1n
handling of slope under soil con-
ditions, mass wasting can occur from
large clear cuts, but this 1s more
often the result of roads than cut-
ting, per se. Trend 1s toward
smaller, sfiaped cuts.
It is becoming Increasingly possible
and practical to handle clearcuts so
as to minimize adverse environmental
Impacts, including aesthetics. A
combination of clear cuts and shelter,
wood cuts will most likely continue.
However, with decreasing size of
clearcut more roads are required,
which results in greater environmental
problems than clearcuttlng Itself.
7. Timber clearcuttlng techniques
in Rockies has proven to be an
effective means of increasing
yield and flow of water.
8. Individual clearcuts of less than
5 percent of a given watershed
probably do not affect downstream
flows. The slight effect would be
lost by worse damage connected with
roads, plugged drains, loose soil,
etc. Both cut and uncut areas re-
spond about equally to heavy storm
conditions in Rocky Mountains.
Timing of cutting can minimize or
avoid channel erosion.
9. In North, It is possible to harvest
clearcut lands at no significant
damage to water quality.
10. Large clearcuts have resulted In
debris avalanches accelerated by
expanses of bare ground, but har-
vesting itself was responsible for
ground baring.
11. In a 6 year period, clearcut with-
out roads had 2 percent of land
slide actj/ity of clearcut roads,
but clearcutting can stop nutrient
uptake, reduce organic matter, and
Increase soil erosion potential.
12. The use of computer technology
with maps and data memory storage
allows study of map alternatives
for arriving at optimum harvest
plan.
7. Hover, M.D. "Vegetation Manage-
ment for Water Yield," Symposium
of Water Balance in North America.
Proc. Ser. 7 pp 191-195, 1969.
8. Harr, A.D., Forest Practices and
Streamflow In Western Oregon,
U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Service,
Tech. Rep. PNN 49, 1976.
9. Aubertin, G.M. and J.H. PatHc,
"Quality Water from Clearcut
Land", Northern Logger, 20(8):
14-15, T57E
9a. Hornbeck, J.W., "Protecting Water
Quality During and After Clear-
cutting," J. Soil and Water Con-
servation. 23(1):19-20. 1568.
10. Bishop, D. and M.E. Stevens, Land-
slidas on Logged Aneasin S.E.
Alaska, U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest
Service, Res. Paper NOR-1, 18 pp,
1964.
11. FredeHckson, R.L., "Impact of
Forest Management on Stream Water
Quality 1n Western Oregon," Proc.
Symposium of Water Pollution and
Abatement, Forest Products Re-
search Society, 1972.
12. Burke D., "New Tools Allow Exam-
ination of Alternatives Speedily,"
Forest Industries. Vol. 102:(7),
pp 48-50, Vol. 102:(8). p. 44,
June 197S.
-------
Exhibit 5.1 (Continued)
Environmental
Effects
Wildlife
ro
Aquatic Systems
Page 3
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
The wildlife make-up changes with
dear-cutting, from tree and forest
dwelling found to be more open
dwelling. With the creation of new
edge between vegetation types, wild-
life should be more diverse, with
increased interim browse for un-
gulates, and more habitat for brush
dwelling species.
Aquatic systems will continue to
receive some adverse Impact, but
these will be limited wherever pre-
cautions are taken.
13. Birdlife on clearcut changes sig-
nificantly. Populations drop 1n
first few months, building up to
greater than pre-harvest by third
year for all brush and ground
dwellers. By Year 12, tree
dwelling species appear again.
14. Use of buffer strips will both
Impede surface runoff and main-
tain stable water temperatures,
helping to sustain heating
fisheries.
13. Conner, R.R. and C.S. Adkisson,
"Effects of Clearcuttlng on
Diversity of Breeding Birds,"
J. Forestry. 73(12):781, 1975.
14. U.S. Forest Service, RPA- A
Recommended Renewable Resource
Program, U.S. Dept. Agr., 652 p.
658 pp and App., 1976.
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-600/3-78-102
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOr*NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture
Silviculture. Volume II: Environmental Effects of
Trends
and
5. REPORT DATE
December 1978
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Samuel G. Linger
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc.
200 Research Drive
Manhattan, Kan. 66502
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
1BB770
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-03-2451
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Environmental Research Laboratory—Athens, GA
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Athens, Ga. 30605
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/01
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Volume I: Trend Identification and Evaluation (EPA-600/3-77-121)
16. ABSTRACT
This study assesses those trends in U.S. agriculture and silviculture that will
have the most significant environmental implications, either beneficial or adverse, in
the short term (1985) and in the long term (2010). Volume I identifies trends in
irrigated and nonirrigated crop production, feedlot production, range and pasture
management, and silviculture and harvest management. Volume II identifies the major
ecological impacts of the major trends on aquatic life, terrestrial life, and human
health. The second volume also contains an assessment of continuing research needs
and prospective policy issues involving environmental quality management.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
COSATI Field/Group
Agriculture
Silviculture
Environmental effects
Environmental quality
management
98C
48D
68D
91A
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247
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227
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