tnvironmsntal Protection Agency Environmental Research Laboratory Athens GA 30605 EPA-600'3-78-102 December 1978 Research and Development Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture Volume II Environmental Effects of Trends ------- RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate- gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en- vironmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields. The nine series are: 1. Environmental Health Effects Research 2. Environmental Protection Technology 3 Ecological Research 4. Environmental Monitoring 5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies 6. Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR) 7. Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development 8. "Special" Reports 9. Miscellaneous Reports This report has been assigned to the ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH series. This series describes research on the effects of pollution on humans, plant and animal spe- cies, and materials. Problems are assessed for their long- and short-term influ- ences. Investigations include formation, transport, and pathway studies to deter- mine the fate of pollutants and their effects. This work provides the technical basis for setting standards to minimize undesirable changes in living organisms in the aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa- tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161. ------- EPA-600/3-78-102 December 1978 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND SILVICULTURE Volume II: Environmental Effects of Trends by Samuel G. Unger Principal Investigator Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc. Manhattan, Kansas 66502 and The Tuolumne Corporation Corte Madera, California 94925 Contract No. 68-03-2451 Project Officer George W. Bailey Environmental Research Laboratory Athens, Georgia 30605 ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY ATHENS, GEORGIA 30605 ------- DISCLAIMER This report has been reviewed by the Environmental Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, Ga., and approved for publica- tion. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. ------- FOREWORD Environmental protection efforts are increasingly directed towards pre- venting adverse health and ecological effects associated with specific com- pounds of natural or human origin. As part of this Laboratory's research on the occurrence, movement, transformation, impact, and control of environmental contaminants, management or engineering tools are developed for assessing and controlling adverse environmental effects of non-irrigated agriculture and of silviculture. Agricultural and silvicultural practices, already significant sources of water and air pollution, represent areas of increasing environmental concern as these production systems expand to meet growing population needs. This study assesses the environmental implications and effects of short- and long- term trends in American agriculture and silviculture and identifies research needs and policy issues. The developed information should benefit environmen- tal managers as they attempt to anticipate pollution problems of the future. David W. Duttweiler Director Environmental Research Laboratory Athens, Georgia m ------- PREFACE The results of this research study, the "Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture," are presented in two parts: Volume I: "Trend Identification and Evaluation," and Volume II: "En- vironmental Effects of Trends." Volume I identifies, defines, rates, and rank-orders the most important environmentally related trends within all major subsectors of agriculture and silviculture. The environmental ratings and rankings were made by selected panels of professionals from throughout the nation on the basis of the Contractor's interim report of trend-by-trend assessments. Over 240 specific subtrends, representing over 70 trend groupings, were eval- uated across five panel areas — subsectors of agriculture and silvi- culture. These panel areas were: (1) nonirrigated crop production, (2) irrigated crop production, (3) feedlot production, (4) range and pasture management, and (5) silviculture and harvest management. Separate sec- tions of the Volume I report are devoted to each of these panel areas of study. Volume II extends the environmental assessment for major trends from each panel area, primarily from the crop production subsectors. Ultimately, the main evaluations of Volume II were assessments of each trend's probable ecological effects, i.e., aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health impacts. These evaluations were also completed by professionals in a work- shop setting on the basis of the Contractor's background summary of de- tailed findings for each trend-subtrend. Volume II also contains an assessment of continuing research needs and prospective policy issues involving agriculture and silviculture and environmental quality management. Throughout the study both short-term (1985) and long-term (2010) effects were evaluated, although emphasis was placed on the long-term. Further- more, the study considered the beneficial as well as the adverse effects of trends in agriculture and silviculture to recognize that the nation's environmental quality can perhaps be as readily enhanced through the pro- motion of beneficial trends as through the control of adverse trends. Finally, the research approach of this study relied heavily upon the value judgements of professionals from agriculture and silviculture. We believe that the composite, informed professional judgements presented here are most reflective of the environmental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture. IV ------- ABSTRACT This study assessed those trends in U. S. agriculture and silviculture which will have the most significant environmental implications, either beneficial or adverse, in the short-term (1985) and in the long-term (2010). The study's findings are reported in two parts. Volume I identified relevant trends and rated their environmental implications for five major subsectors of agriculture and silviculture: (1) nonirrigated crop production, (2) irrigated crop production, (3) feedlot production, (4) range and pasture management, and (5) silviculture and harvest management. Volume II extended the environmental effects analysis of selected major trends from each sub- sector, primarily the identification of major ecological impacts of the major trends on aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health. A second study workshop was conducted to ascertain probable ecological effects where data constraints currently exist. Volume II also contains the study's identification of research needs germane to a more definitive assessment of the environmental and ecological effects of the five subsectors, and the study's development of prospective policy issues which are likely to emerge from the five subsectors. The research needs range widely, but were classified into four primary re- search categories: production efficiency, pollution measurement, pollution reduction, and ecological impact. A fifth category, extensiveness research, completes the framework of research needs, but this category is largely out- side EPA's primary areas of responsibility. The prospective pollution con- trol policy issues discussed all emanate from three basic policy areas: control of wastes from production processes, control of polluting inputs, and control of management practices to reduce pollutants generated. Each subsector of agriculture and silviculture has both research needs and pros- pective policy issues within these four research categories and within the three basic pollution control policy areas, as reported. This report was submitted in fulfillment of EPA Contract No. 68-03-2451 by Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., Manhattan, Kansas, and its subcontractor, The Tuolumne Corporation, Corte Madera, California, under the sponsorship of the Environmental Protection Agency. Work was completed as of December 1977. ------- CONTENTS FOREWORD jii PREFACE iv ABSTRACT v LIST OF EXHIBITS ix ACKNOWLEDGMENT x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xiii I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. Scope of Study 2 B. Phase II Procedures 2 C. The Ecology Workshop 4 II. ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS ASSESSMENT 5 A. Agriculture Sector Trends 7 1. Runoff and Erosion Control 7 2. Conservation Tillage 14 3. Improved Water Application 19 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants 27 5. Scouting and Integrated Control 31 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides 33 7. Methods of Nutrient Application 35 8. Soil-Plant Analysis 40 9. Alternative Residual Disposal 41 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates 42 B. Silviculture Sector Trends 45 1. Access to Timber Resources 45 2. Site Preparation 51 3. Log Extraction 57 4. Utilization 59 5. Cutting System 63 III. RESEARCH NEEDS 65 A. Agriculture Sector Research Needs 66 Production Efficiency Research Needs 66 Pollution Measurement Research Needs 72 Pollution Reduction Research Needs 73 Ecological Impact Research Needs 74 B. Silviculture Sector Research Needs 75 Production Efficiency Research Needs 75 Pollution Measurement Research Needs 77 Pollution Reduction Research Needs 77 Ecological Impact Research Needs 78 ------- CONTENTS (Continued) IV. POLICY ISSUES A. Agriculture Sector Policy Issues Crop Production Subsector - Soil and Water Management Crop Production Subsector - Nutrient Manage- ment Crop Production Subsector - Pesticide Manage- ment Feedlot Production Subsector - Residual Disposal Management Range and Pasture Management Subsector - Grazing Management Range and Pasture Management - Renovations and Improved Management B. Silviculture Sector Policy Issues Silviculture Production Sector - Harvest Management Function Silviculture Production Sector - Stand Control Management Silviculture Production Sector - Damage Control Management BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX A -- APPENDIX B -- 79 80 80 83 84 86 86 87 88 89 91 92 94 DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND THE ECOLOGY WORKSHOP EVALUATION SUMMARY 106 DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED SILVICULTURAL TRENDS 204 vm ------- LIST OF EXHIBITS Number Page II-l Summary of top ranked (vis-a-vis their environmental implications) Phase I trends in agriculture and silvi- culture including identification of Phase II trends 6 II-2 Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in agriculture 8 II-3 Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in silviculture 46 III-l Summary of agriculture sector research needs by trend and research category 67 III-2 Summary of silviculture sector research needs by trend and research category 76 IV-1 Summary of agriculture sector policy issues by manage- ment function and basic policy area 81 IV-2 Summary of silviculture sector policy issues by manage- ment function and basic policy area 90 ------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Many individuals and work groups participated in this research study. In particular, Dr. George W. Bailey, Environmental Research Laboratory, EPA, Athens, Georgia guided the study as Project Officer. Thomas E. Waddell, Office of Research and Development, EPA, Washington, D. C. assisted with the coordination of research efforts and provided liaison support. Special thanks go to Richard L. Duesterhaus and Glen H. Loomis, Office of Environmental Quality Activities, U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated interagency (USDA-EPA-University) Ad Hoc Subcommittee on the Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture. This work group reviewed the study's plan of work, made constructive com- ments, and subsequently recommended participants for the Evaluation Work- shop that reviewed the Contractor's initial work. These recommendations included professionals of many disciplines from USDA, the universities, and the private sector who are located throughout the nation. All phases of agriculture and silviculture were considered via the assistance of this Subcommittee and its affiliation with the Office of the Secretary, U. S. Department of Agriculture. Particularly important to this study, also, were the individual and combined efforts of the evaluation workshop participants (both in the Volume I and Volume II portions of study) who assessed the environmentally-related trends in agriculture and silviculture, 1976-2010. These participants, as briefly named below by panel area, are identified further within the report. DPRA sincerely acknoledges their contributions. Range and Pasture Management . Glen D. Fulcher, Ch. John L. Launchbaugh James M. Scholl John Studeman Silviculture and Harvest Management . Gary Margheim _ Noel Larson, Ch. . Walt H. Wischmeier _ George Dl-ssrneyer Warren C. Harper Irrigated Crop Production Stanley J Ursic . Roy S. Rauschkalb, Ch. ; David D_ Wooldridge . Charles M. Hohn Gerald L. Horner R. Eugene Merrill Nonirri gated Crop Product! • George M. Browning, Ch. William L. Col vi lie Pierre L. Crosson Velmar W. Davis Victor J. Kilmer Ralph L. Leonard on ------- Feedlot Production . Raymond C. Loehr, Ch. . Daniel D. Badger D. Eugene Becker . Bartley P. Cardon James K. Koelliker Agriculture-Ecology Panel . Lloyd C. Hulbert H. Page Nicholson Fred W. Oehme . Walt H. Wischmeier . John L. Zimmerman Within DPRA and the Tuolumne Corporation, many professional staff and consultants assisted with the preparation of this report: Dr. Raymond E. Seltzer, Arthur C. Barker, Dr. Gary A. Davis, Dr. S. McCallum King, Al H. Ringleb, and Rita D. Walker contributed importantly. From the Tuolumne Corporation, the principal contributors were Peter Arnold, James L. Zeigler, and Dr. F. Bruce Lamb. Samuel G. Principal Unger Investigator ------- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This "Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture" study for the Environmental Protection Agency determined and assessed those trends in U.S. agriculture and silviculture which will have the most signi- ficant beneficial or adverse environmental implications in the short-term (1985) and the long-term (2010). Volume I identified those trends and evaluated their environmentally germane developments in all major sub- sectors of agriculture and silviculture. Volume II presents a detailed assessment of the environmental effects of selected major trends and of their related research needs and prospective policy issues involving pollu- tion controls in agriculture and silviculture. Two phases of research (Volumes I and II) were involved in the study. The present volume, Phase II, extends the trend identification research of Volume I by further examining those trends which were evaluated as having relatively greater environmental implications. In particular, for those selected trends as shown in Exhibit 1, more detailed trend-subtrend assess- ments were completed to determine: (1) their current and expected exten- siveness of use, (2) their associated productivity changes, (3) their ef- fects on resource-use patterns, and (4) their expected pollutant changes by media (water, air, and land) in relation to conventional practices. On the basis of these analyses, each subtrend's ecological effects were also estimated. For the agriculture sector's trend assessment, an ecology workshop was conducted to determine the expected ecological effects of the selected trends and subtrends. A panel of professional ecologists and agricultur- alists utilized the Contractor's preliminary report of findings (Appendix A) to rate, on an index scale, both the adverse and the beneficial eco- logical effects associated with each subtrend. For the silviculture sec- tor's trend assessment, a comprehensive literature search was completed, including an analysis of each subtrend's known or anticipated ecological effects (Appendix B). In general, relatively more environmental and eco- logical effects research has been completed for silviculture, and hence, a workshop evaluation approach was not considered necessary for this sector. For both agriculture and silviculture, three principal categories of ecological effects were assessed for each subtrend: aquatic life, ter- restrial life and human health effects. For the silviculture sector, two additional categories were assessed—aesthetics and recreation oppor- tunity. These latter environmentally-related effects categories are especially important in silviculture and are often a principal concern of forest management practices. xiii ------- Exhibit 1. Trends and suhtrcnd* in agriculture and silviculture selected for Phase II assessment Sector/Trends Subtrcnd A. AGRICULTURE SECTOR Crop Production \.Runoff and Erosion Control 2. Conservation Tillage 3. Improved Water Application 4. Improvement Seed and Plants 5. 6. Scouting and Integrated Controls Development of New Bio- logical and Chemical Pesticides 7. Methods of Nutrient Application 8. Soil-Plant Analysis Feedlot Production 9. Alternative Residual Disposal Range and Pasture Management 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates 1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping 1.2 Terraces and grass waterways 1.3 Optimizing time of operations 1.4 Narrow rows 1.5 Winter cover crop 2.1 No-tillage 2.2 Reduced tillage 3.1 Furrow basins 3.2 Land grading 3.3 Sprinklers 3.1 Recycling and controlling tailwater 3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency 4.1 Weather resistance 4.2 Salt resistance 4.3 Production efficiency 4.4 Disease and insect resistant 5.1 Surface scouting 5.2 Remote sensing scouting 5.3 Integrated controls 6.1 Micro-encapsulated 6.2 Systemic pesticides 6.3 Surfactants for herbicides 6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides 6.5 Alternative formulations 6.6 Juvenile hormones 6.7 Pheromones 6.8 Sterile males 6.9 Predators and parasites 7.1 Foliar application 7.2 Multiple application 7.3 Fall application 7.4 Liquid fertilizer 7.5 Aerial and floater application 7.6 Improved nutrient placement 7.7 Irrigation application 8.1 Soil-Plant analysis 9.1 Off-site disposal—solids and liquids 10.1 Continuous grazing 10.2 Specialized grazing 10.3 Complementary forage seedings 10.4 Controlled livestock grazing B. SILVICULTURE SECTOR 1. Access to Timber Resource 2. Site Preparation 3. Log Extraction 4. Utilization 5. Cutting System 1.1 Permanent road construction 1.2 Road maintenance 1.3 Project road construction 1.4 Road reconstruction 2.1 Log extraction 2.2 Mechanical preparation 2.3 Burning prescription 2.4 Chemical treatment 2.5 Fertilizer treatment 2.6 Soil moisture control 3.1 Harvest unit layout 3.2 Equipment use and development 4.1 Extraction residue recovery A.? Minimum size and quality extension 4.3 Sprcii:'. use enlargement 5.1 Clearcutting XIV ------- Following the ecological effects assessments for agriculture and silviculture, a comprehensive review was made of both Phase I and Phase II developments to identify the continuing research needs and policy issues (particularly for nonpoint sources of pollution) of agriculture and silviculture related to the anticipated problems of controlling these sources of pollution. Results of the Study Three main types of results were obtained in this study: (1) the identifi- cation of the environmental and ecological effects of leading trends in agriculture and silviculture, (2) the identification of their related re- search needs, and (3) the identification of their related policy issues. Each of these are summarized as follows: 1. Environmental and Ecological Effects A principal result of this Phase II research was the environmental analysis of selected trends and subtrends from both agriculture and silviculture, in- cluding an assessment of each subtrend's ecological effects. Exhibit 2 summarizes the ecological effects ratings of the ecology workshop for the subtrends assessed in the agriculture sector. These ratings, either beneficial (+) or adverse (-) on a scale of 1 (minor) to 5 (major) relative to 1976 conditions were made for the short-term (1985) and long- term (2010). Separate ratings, as shown, were made for aquatic life, ter- restrial life and human health effects. The workshop concluded that aquatic life and terrestrial life effects of agriculture's trends and subtrends are not expected to change significantly on the national level by 1985; however, moderate to important changes can be expected by 2010 under the study's base- line agricultural growth assumptions (Volume I). For the most part, the changes are expected to be beneficial, rather than adverse, as illustrated in Exhibit 2. For example, trends in runoff and erosion control and in conservation tillage methods in the cropland production subsector will gen- erally have beneficial aspects. Their net effect is not clear, however, when both beneficial and adverse changes are predicted. Human health ef- fects are generally expected to be minor with little anticipated differences from current conditions for most of the agriculture trends and subtrends assessed. For the silviculture sector, similar assessments were made based on litera- ture search findings as discussed in detail in Section II. In addition, the aesthetic and recreation opportunity effects of silviculture's trends and developments are evaluated, since in many cases, these effects are of primary concern. Because of silviculture's long growth-harvest cycles, many of the aquatic, terrestrial, and human health effects are, relative to those of agriculture, rather short-lived. Most practices which alter forest sites, e.g., access, harvest or site preparation, will, however, have potential adverse effects, including more extended aesthetic and recreation opportunity impacts. xv ------- Exhibit 2. Summary of ecological effects ratings of trends and subtrends In the agriculture sector X < Trend Crop 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Feed Production Runoff and Erosion Control Conservation Tillage Improved Hater Application Improvement Seed and Plants Scouting and Integrated Controls Developnent of Hew Bto- logiccl and Chemical Methods of Nutrient Application Soil Plant Analysis lot Production 1. 1 . 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6 e. 7. 7. 7. 7 7 7 7. 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 G 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8.1 Subtrend Ecological Effects Rating Aquatic fern- 1985 Contour fanning/contour strip cropping +1 Terraces and grass waterways +1 Optimizing time of operations +1 Harrow rows Winter cover crop No-tillage Reduced tillage Furrow basins Land grading Sprinklers 0 0 +2; -\-' +2--1 -2 -1 -1 Recycling and controlling tallwater +2 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency +1 V.'eather resistance Salt resistance Production efficiency 0 0 0 Disease and Insect resistant +Z Surface scouting ) Remote sensing scouting ) Integrated controls Micro-encapsulated SysUrilc pesticides Surfactants for tiiiuidties Bio-degradable pesticides Alternative formulations Juvenile hormones Phcromones Sterile males Predators and parasites Foliar application Multiple application Fall application Liquid fertll Izer +1 +1 •H +j 0 +1 -2 0 Aerial and floater application 0 Improved nutrient placement « Irrigation application "' Soil plant analysis +1 2010 +4 +3 +1 +1 +1 +3-.-1 +3;-l -3 -1 -2 +3 +1 0 -1 -1 +4 +3 +4 +3 +3 0 +1 -3 0 0 0 -v +2 19S5 Index +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 0 *1 0 0 0 stnal ?cT6~ +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 +1 0 -1 0 *3 +3 +4 +2 +3 0 +1 0 0 +2 0 0 0 Hu '.in T9n5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 +1 0 0 0 0 +1 0 0 +1 +1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 HiMlth 2010 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 +1 0 0 0 0 +2 +1 +2 +2 +3 0 0 -1 0 0 p 0 T.Alternative Residual Disposal Rango and Pasture Management ~T6T Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates 9.1 Off-site disposal- solids and liquids 10.1 Continuous grazing 10.2 Specialized grazing 10.3 Complementary forage seedlngs 10.4 Controlled livestock grazing -1 0 +1 +2 0 +1 +2 0 +1 +1 +3 -1 »3 -1 0 0 0 Index rating - beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scsle of 1 to 5, where 1 • minor. 2 3 • moderate, 4 • Important, and 5 • major. Aquatic effects of no-till and reduced tillage were divided Into two areas. The^ir. cide use with those practices. United. ------- 2. Research Needs A continuing need exists to improve the information and data base for con- ducting meaningful environmental effects assessments in agriculture and silviculture. In this study, four categories of research needs were enum- erated and discussed: 1. Production efficiency research 2. Pollution measurement research 3. Pollution reduction research 4. Ecological impact research A fifth research category, extensiveness research, is also implicitly re- quired; however, this research is generally beyond EPA's primary responsibility, Production efficiency research is necessary to assess the direct and indirect pollution effects of those technologies used to improve production yield and efficiency. Pollution measurement research is needed to determine the actual types and quantities of pollution generated by alternative agricultural and silvicultural production processes under various environmental conditions. Pollution reduction research is needed to assess the effects of alternative methods to reduce the generation of pollutants. And, ecological impact re- search is needed to quantify the various types of environmental and eco- logical effects associated with both individual and composite production activities. A detailed summary of this study's identified research needs for the agri- culture sector is presented in Exhibit III-l of the text. Specific re- search needs are arranged by agriculture subsector and by the above four research categories. A similar summary for the silviculture sector is shown in Exhibit 111-2. Insofar as the control of pollution is a principal goal of EPA, two of the above research categories, i.e., production efficiency research and pollution reduction research, are of primary importance. Production ef- ficiency research, for instance, is an indirect form of pollution control, for improvements in production efficiency will inhibit the expanded use of potentially polluting resources to meet specified output levels. Pollu- tion reduction research examines those activities and resources which, when applied, will directly affect pollution levels. Of important note is the finding of this Phase II study that it is pre- sently impossible to specify an established and detailed, heirarchical delineation of research needs. The study's workshop recognized that it is not readily apparent which research activities would have the greatest expected environmental effects. Present knowledge, for instance, is in- sufficient to determine whether it is better to expand research to develop improved seeds and plants to enhance production efficiency or whether to develop improved no-till methods for run-off and erosion control in order to most effectively control pollution levels in the future. xvn ------- The following examples of research needs as defined for the various sub- sectors of agriculture and silviculture in the production efficiency and the pollution reduction research categories are illustrative of both the findings and the complexity of the environmental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture: Sector/Subsector Agriculture Sector . Crop Production Type of Research Need Production Efficiency Pollution Reduction . Feedlot Production . Range and Pasture Silviculture Sector . Harvest Management . Stand Control Develop more efficient farm implements for soil and water manage- ment. Develop more resistant seeds and plants, in- cluding resistance to weather, insects, salt and nematodes. Develop sources, both legume and non-legume, of biological nitrogen fixation. Develop more effective integrated pest control systems including im- proved, more effective chemical and biological pesticides. Assess the efficiency and feasibility of recycling wastes in feeding rations Develop more effective grazing systems utiliz- ing innovations such as complementary forage seedings. Determine optimum level of utilization of bio- mass in commercial forests and means of projecting environmen- tal effects under varying cutting levels. Determine minimum amount of site pre- paration to meet requirements for regeneration. Develop and determine effectiveness of alter- native reduced tillage methods for lowering pollutant losses, e.g., nutrients, pesticides, sediment. Develop and determine the feasibility of water renovation through filtering and desalting. Develop fertilizers designed to reduce pollution effects, e.g., micro- encapsulation. Evaluate ration rotation as a means of reducing the potential build-up of copper, arsenic, and sodium derived from feed rations. Determine kinds, volumes, and sizes of material that should be left on site to aid in controlling pollution resulting from varying levels of utilization. Develop equipment to minimize pollution effects of site preparation. XVI11 ------- Besides these examples of production efficiency and pollution reduction research needs which can either directly or indirectly affect pollution levels in the future, numerous research requirements, as summarized in Exhibits III-l and III-2 of the report, involving pollution measurement and ecological impacts are also needed. Such monitoring activities are essential within the context of research both to better understand the impacts of pollution in the environment and to assess the progress of de- velopments in agriculture and silviculture. 3. Policy Issues The third major result of this study was its identification of prospective environmental policy issues which emerge as a consequence of the environ- mental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture. Such issues are germane because of EPA's legislative requirements (such as under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, PL 92-500) to establish effective pol- lution controls for both point and non-point sources. Agriculture and silviculture pollution control can be attained in only three basic ways: (a) the control or treatment of wastes generated by production systems; (b) the control of use of polluting inputs; and (c) the control of management practices to reduce pollutants generated. Policy issues arise as a direct consequence of the consideration of public measures to influence any or all of these control approaches. A general summary of the policy issues identified in this study, categorized by the three types of control as indicated, is presented in Exhibit IV-1 in the report. For both the agriculture and silviculture sectors, policy is- sues involving the control or treatment of wastes, jDer se^ may generally lack' feasible implementation alternatives because of the dispersed and fugitive nature of non-point sources of pollution. Consequently, rela- tively more policy issues were identified in relation either to the control of inputs or to the control of management practices. The following examples of policy issues germane to input and management practice controls are illustrative of the findings of this study by subsector of agriculture and silviculture. xnx ------- Basic Policy Area Sector/Subsector Control of Inputs Agriculture . Crop Production Affect the amounts and types of resources used, including land, nutrients, pesticides, water, etc. Control of Management Practices Affect run-off and erosion controls, conservation tillage practices, water application practices, wind erosion controls, crop sequencing practices, and others. Feedlot Production Affect land-use off- site disposal require- ments, and feedlot size. Range and Pasture Management Affect use of land, nutrients and pesti- cides. Silviculture . Harvest Manage- ment, Stand Con- trol and Damage Control Affect use of land, nutrients and pesti- cides. Develop and affect use of alternative residual dis- posal methods. Control practices via feedlot size. Affect grazing practices and stocking rates. Affect access developments, site preparation practices and fire control practices. The policy issues identified here are stated without specific consideration of the type of implementation method which may be feasible or most prac- ticable. In actuality, alternative implementation methods may be appli- cable, e.g., regulations, economic incentives, education, or public invest- ments. Further, various indirect policy issues, such as foreign agricultural trade issues, were not assessed in this study, yet such issues will exo- genously affect environmental quality management needs in the agriculture and silviculture production sectors of the U.S. economy. xx ------- SECTION I INTRODUCTION As was documented in Volume I of this two-volume report, the agriculture and^silviculture sectors of the U. S. economy are major contributors of environmental pollution. However, because these pollutants are generally widely dispersed, their environmental effects are often uncertain; and, based upon available data, neither the scope nor the full effects of agri- cultural and silvicultural pollutants are accurately known. The goal of this research was not to isolate agriculture's and silviculture's absolute contribution to overall environmental pollution; rather, at best, this study sought to determine the relative environmental effects that trends and developments would likely have in the future vis-a-vis the cur- rent environmental quality. That is, the study basically asked: "What changes in environmental effects are likely if trends and developments in agriculture and silviculture con- tinue into the short-term (1985) and the long-term (2010)?" Within this context, what specific trends (or component subtrends) may eventually pro- duce either beneficial or adverse environmental effects in comparison to current, conventional practices. In Volume I of this study, the emphasis was toward trend identification and a relative ranking of environmentally-related agricultural and silvicultural trends according to their expected environmental implications—either bene- ficial or adverse. Volume II extends the environmental assessment of the most highly rated trends as determined in Volume I. The Volume II assessment ultimately focused on the potential ecological ef- fects of specific practices and probable developments, or subtrends, within selected trends. The primary ecological effects evaluated were aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health impacts. Additionally, however, the assessment included a detailed analysis of each subtrend's extensive- ness of use, productivity changes, resource use patterns, and pollutant changes by media. This latter analysis provided the basis for an ecology panel workshop for the agricultural sector in which the ecological effects of each selected subtrend-trend were investigated. ------- A. Scope of Study This study for the Environmental Protection Agency sought to determine and assess those current and emerging trends in U. S. agriculture and silviculture which will have the most significant environmental impli- cations—either beneficial or adverse. The two main objectives of the analysis were: (1) to assess the environmental implications and impacts of both short-term (1985) and long-term (2010) trends in American agriculture and silviculture, and (2) to identify pertinent environmental issues, associated re- search needs and policy issues. To accomplish these objectives, two phases of work were involved in the overall study: Phase I, the subject of the Volume I report, determined on a priority basis the major environmentally-related trends in agri- culture and silviculture, and Phase II, the subject of this Volume II report, assessed the en- vironmental effects (particularly the ecological impacts) of selected major trends, and identified associated research needs and policy issues. In the conduct of this research, evaluation workshops comprised of agri- cultural, silvicultural, and other basic science professionals were util- ized to rate, assess and modify, as needed the Contractor's Phase I and Phase II preliminary findings. The Phase II workshop panel and procedures are described more fully below. B. Phase II Procedures In preparation for the agriculture sector ecological effects workshop of Phase II, the Contractor prepared an interim background summary for the participants. This report documented for each subtrend its current and projected extensiveness of use, productivity effects, resource use changes and pollutant changes by media, and this documentation served as the in- formation basis for the workshop assessment. (This background summary, plus workshop evaluation forms, are included in Appendix A.) In Phase II, a single panel of experts was selected to assess the ecolog- ical effects of subtrends and trends in agriculture—covering all sub- sectors, i.e., crop production (both nonirrigated and irrigated), feedlot production, and range and pasture management. Subtrends and trends in silviculture were separately assessed because of the significant differences ------- of this sector's growth-production-harvest cycles and of generally inter- mittent environmental-ecological effects of its activity in any given lo- cation. This assessment of silviculture! trends was based principally on research literature. A background summary of research findings and con- clusions for the silviculture sector is included in Appendix B. The ecology workshop participants for the agriculture sector met in general sessions to assess and rate the potential change in ecological effects of each subtrend within the selected trends. In particular, three types of ecosystem effects were evaluated: aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health. A fourth type of effect, wildlife habitat, originally pro- jected by the Contractor, was determined by the workshop to be properly considered within either the aquatic life or terrestrial life categories. Hence, only three types of effect were included in the final analysis; however, wildlife effects were frequently described within either the aquatic or terrestrial categories. With the Contractor's background summary as a guide, the workshop first assessed the summary provided and modified the summary conclusions where necessary. This discussion led to a common basis of understanding for the subsequent ecological effects ratings for 1985 and 2010 relative to 1976 (or current conditions). Also, it was agreed that the assessment would accept the Phase I (Volume I) workshop panels' judgements as to the probable extensiveness of use of each of the subtrends in relative terms, i.e., the index ratings of the direction and magnitude of each subtrend as determined in Phase I. The Contractor supplemented these ratings with quantified data whenever possible. The workshop was asked to rate the direction and magnitude of change in ecological effects which could be expected by 1985 and by 2010 from the current period, 1976, as follows: Relative Type of Effect Direction Magnitude Aquatic life I/ (+) = beneficial 1 = minor Terrestrial life I/ (-) = adverse 2 = limited Human health 3 = moderate 4 = important 5 = major —/ Includes wildlife habitat As was explained to the workshop, the rating scale from 1 to 5, or minor to major, was purely judgemental not only within the panel, but to other investigators. Nevertheless, the ratings and their dispersion across subtrends-trends were deemed as important indicators of environmental ef- fects. Furthermore, it was the objective of this workshop that "consensus" ratings be obtained from the panelists--rather than completely independent ratings. The rationale for this approach was that it would better inte- grate the ideas and knowledge of these professionals and that while ------- differences would exist, such differences would be best resolved through qualifying remarks and their rationale for any given rating. (Note: Further assessments of distributions in initial rating responses are de- sirable, but they were not considered statistically useful in this study since relatively few panelists were involved and pre-workshop ratings were not specifically requested.) C. The Ecology Workshop The participants of the Phase II ecology workshop for the agriculture sector represented a cross-section of professional scientists whose primary acti- vities are directly involved with environmental and ecological effects of man's activities. These participants and their principal areas of exper- tise are as follows: Participant Area of Expertise Dr. Lloyd C. Hulbert Aquatic and terrestrial effects Manhattan, Kansas Dr. S. Mac King Agronomy, soils and environmental Wheaton, Illinois effects of agricultural practices Dr. H. P. Nicholson Human health and environmental Athens, Georgia effects of pesticides in soil and water Dr. Fred W. Oehme Toxicology and human health effects Manhattan, Kansas Dr. Walt H. Wischmeier Runoff and soil erosion in relation Lafayette, Indiana to alternative agricultural practices Dr. John L. Zimmerman Aquatic and terrestrial effects, in- Manhattan, Kansas eluding wildlife ------- SECTION II ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS ASSESSMENT Only selected trends in agriculture and silviculture, based on the Phase I evaluation, were included in this Phase II environmental and ecological ef- fects assessment. Each of the trends and associated subtrends included were previously assessed as major environmentally-related trends by the Phase I evaluation workshop. These trends are as outlined in Exhibit II-l, below, and include ten trends from the agriculture sectors and five from silviculture, as shown. In order to conduct the more detailed environmental and ecological effect assessment of Phase II, additional literature reviews were completed and research findings were summarized. For the agriculture trends selected, an interim background summary report was prepared and distributed to the ecology workshop participants as a basis for their workshop evaluations. This background summary material is included in Appendix A, and it pri- marily contains data on the extensiveness of use of each subtrend, pro- ductivity effects, resource use changes, and pollutant changes by media for each subtrend compared to other related conventional practices. Spec- ific references to the research findings as reported are also cited. For the silviculture trends, a similar review of literature was completed as summarized in Appendix B; however, a workshop assessment was not conducted. The principal focus of the agriculture sector workshop assessment was on each trend-subtrends' potential ecosystem impacts relative to current (1976) conditions. In particular, three types of ecological effects were evaluated and rated: aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health. Judgemental rating values were determined for each type of ecological effect cor- responding to either beneficial (+) or adverse (-) changes in effect on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major, as explained in detail in Section I, above. The workshop participants accepted the challenge of such a relative rating approach, realizing the variability that obviously exists in not only the presence of known pollutants but especially in the loadings or dosage levels of pollutants as they interface with receptor organisms. Ideally, ecological assessments would be conducted under much more rigorous conditions with detailed quantitative statistics regarding pollutants, re- ceptor characteristics such as assimilative capacities, organisms present, end-uses, and others. Such data are generally meager, however, and pro- fessional judgements are mandatory if even relative indicators of environ- mental effects of agriculture's and silviculture's production activities are to be obtained. ------- Exhibit II-l. Summary of top ranked (vis-a-vis their environmental implications) Phase I trends in agriculture and silviculture including identification of Phase II trends Phase I Phase II Trend Agriculture Trends Workshop Rank Numbers: Agriculture Runoff & Erosion Control (Nonirrigated) If Conservation Tillage (Nonirrigated) Improved Water Application (Irrigated) Runoff & Erosion Control (Irrigated) Improvement of Seeds & Plants (Nonirrigated) Scouting & Integrated Controls (Non- irrigated) Developing New Biological & Chemical Pesticides (Nonirrigated) Feedlot Design for Waste Management (Feedlot) _3/ Feedlot Size (Feedlot) _3/ Alternative Residual Disposal (Feedlot) Method of Nutrient Application (Irrigated) Grazing Practices (Range & Pasture) Stocking Rates (Range & Pasture) Developing Integrated Controls (Irrigated) Renovation (Range & Pasture) Soil Plant Analysis (Irrigated) Odor Control (Feedlot) Using Increased Resources (Range & Pasture) Feed Efficiency and Rations (Feedlot) Range & Pasture Improvement (Range & Pasture) 1 " 2 3 4 . V 1 2 3 1 5 4 6 " 7 8 9 10 11 121 13 J 14 - 5 — -- 9 7 10 10 5 15 16 8 17 18 19 20 Silviculture Trends Phase I Rank by _4/ Silviculture Panel Phase II Trend Numbers: Silviculture Access to Timber Resource Site Preparation Log Extraction Utilization; Logs & Residues Cutting System 1 2 3 4 9 \l In Phase I, agriculture trends represented four subsectors: (1) Irrigated Crop Production; (2) Nonirrigated Crop Production; (3) Feedlot Production; and, (4) Range & Pasture Management. 2/ — Brackets indicate combined agriculture trends for Phase II assessment. — In Feedlot Production, the first two ranked trends were excluded from Phase II because EPA point source analysis and controls will apply. — Silviculture trends were ranked separately in Phase I by the Silviculture panel and were not included in overall workshop rankings. ------- The environmental and ecological effects assessments for agriculture and silviculture, which follow, represent both research findings from the literature and expert judgements. The ecological effects of trends in agriculture were primarily evaluated in a workshop setting as previously described. The panel itself placed most credence on the direction of eco- logical effects as defined below, and tried to reflect differential rela- tive changes among subtrends via the rating scale adopted. However, it is impossible to precisely indicate in an index fashion all potential effects under all possible conditions. Each subtrend itself might present major eco- logical problems on a local-regional level. A. Agriculture Sector Trends The agriculture sector trends are divided into three subsectors in Phase II: crop production (irrigated and nonirrigated), feedlot production, and, range and pasture management. (In Phase I, the irrigated and nonirrigated crop production subsectors were assessed separately.) Ten (10) trends and 41 subtrends from these three subsectors, as shown in Exhibit II-2, are assessed. In particular, the trends numbered 1 thru 8 are selected trends from the crop production subsector; trend 9 is from the feedlot production subsector; trend 10 is from the range and pasture management subsector. The rationale for the selection of these trends was that basically each trend was rated as having relatively high environmental implications by the Phase I evaluation workshop -- either in the aggregate or by the re- spective subsector panels of experts. At least one trend from each sub- sector was included; however, for the feedlot production subsector, the two most highly rated trends were excluded because the Environmental Protection Agency's point-source control programs do or will cover the environmental effects of these trends. Hence, the third-ranked feedlot trend, residuals disposal, was selected for this analysis. As was shown in Exhibit II-l, above, the crop production subsectors (non- irrigated and irrigated) generally have the production-related trends with the greatest environmental implications; consequently, the emphasis of this assessment is on the crop production subsector environmental and ecological effects. Obviously, however, further assessments of additional trends from all subsectors of agriculture are possible and relevant. 1. Runoff and Erosion Control (1) A total of five subtrends were evaluated as components of the runoff and erosion control trend. Three of these, contour farming, terraces and grass waterways, and use of winter cover crops are recognized methods of stabil- izing soil. Optimizing time of farm operations and the use of narrow rows are also considered as erosion control practices. The basic principle be- hind all five of these practices is that they impede runoff and retard sedi- ment movement. The ecology workshop's ratings for each subtrend are sum- marized below and are followed by a discussion of each subtrend's exten- siveness of use, environmental factors, ecological effects and research needs ------- Exhibit II-2. Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in agriculture Trend Subtrend Crop Production LRunoffand Erosion Control .2. Conservation Tillage 3. Improved Water Application 4. Improvement Seed and Plants 5. 6. Scouting and Integrated Controls Development of New Bio- logical and Chemical 7. Methods of Nutrient Application 8. Soil Plant Analysis Feedlot Production 9. Alternative Residual Disposal Range and Pasture Management 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates 1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping 1.2 Terraces and grass waterways 1.3 Optimizing time of operations 1.4 Narrow rows 1.5 Winter cover crop 2.1 No-tillage 2.2 Reduced tillage 3.1 Furrow basins 3.2 Land grading 3.3 Sprinklers 3.4 Recycling and controlling tailwater 3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency 4.1 Weather resistance 4.2 Salt resistance 4.3 Production efficiency 4.4 Disease and insect resistant 5.1 Surface scouting 5.2 Remote sensing scouting 5.3 Integrated controls 6.1 Micro-encapsulated 6.2 Systemic pesticides 6.3 SuriuCtsnts icr rieruicitjcs 6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides 6.5 Alternative formrlations 6.6 Juvenile hormones 6.7 Pheromones 6.8 Sterile males 6.9 Predators and parasites 7.1 Foliar application 7.2 Multiple application 7.3 Fall application 7.4 Liquid fertilizer 7.5 Aerial and floater application 7.6 Improved nutrient placement 7.7 Irrigation application 8.1 Soil plant analysis 9.1 Off-site disposal- solids and liquids 10.1 Continuous grazing 10.2 Specialized grazing 10.3 Complementary forage seedings 10.4 Controlled livestock grazing ------- Subtrend 1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping 1.2 Terraces and grass waterways 1.3 Optimizing time of operations 1.4 Narrow rows 1.5 Winter cover crops Aquatic 1985 2010 +1 +1 +1 0 0 +4 +3 +1 +1 +1 Terrestrial 1985 2010 (Index Rating)*- +1 +1 +1 0 0 +3 +3 +2 +1 +1 Human Health 1985 2010 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 */ - Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major Contour Farming/Contour Strip Cropping (1.1) With this subtrend, farming operations are performed according to land elevations. Strip cropping allows strips of grass, close-growing crops, or fallow to alternate with cultivated crops on the contour. Extensiveness - In 1964, 20,250,000 acres of grain and row crops were farmed on the contour. By 1969, extensiveness had dropped to 14,570,000 acres, a 25 percent decrease. Further decreases in crops farmed on the contour were estimated for 1976. However, based upon evaluation workshop ratings (Phase I, Volume 1), contouring was expected to increase in use from moder- ate levels in 1976 to major levels by 2010. This projected increase results from anticipated non-point source controls to maintain and/or achieve water quality standards by the implementation of certain management practices such as contour farming. Environmental Factors - Productivity of contoured land will be comparable to straight row farming. Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use pat- terns will not change with contour farming. Soil loss will be reduced an average of 30-50 percent with contouring alone on moderate slopes. On steeper slopes or on land with topographic limita- tions, contouring will be much less effective in reducing soil loss. Ni- trates and phosphorus will also be reduced in surface water, but the re- ductions may not be proportional to soil loss reductions. Pesticide resi- dues will be reduced in surface water, but these reductions will, also, be less than those for soil and perhaps less than those for nutrients. Losses of nitrates and pesticide residues into ground water are not likely to be decreased significantly with contouring. ------- Ecological Effects - Contouring will have beneficial aquatic and terres- trial effects. These effects will be minor in 1985 because the extensive- ness of use for contouring (over 1976 use) will not have increased signif- icantly. The effects will, however, be moderate for aquatic and important for terrestrial by 2010 as extensiveness does increase. Decreased tur- bidity in the aquatic environment will lead to greater species diversity.' A reduction in pesticide residues in surface water will also have a positive effect on aquatic life. The positive effect will increase with the antici- pated use of less persistent pesticides in the future. The terrestrial ef- fects will also be beneficial since topsoil losses are reduced, nutrient cycles are retained, and soil will be maintained in a better condition. Based upon present knowledge, pesticide residues at present levels in the nation's surface water are not known to be hazardous to humans. Thus, re- ductions in pesticide residues with contouring will have no significant ef- fect on human health. Should future considerations of pesticide residues in surface water result in these residues being considered a potential human health hazard, then the human health effects from contouring would be beneficial. Research Needs - Additional research is needed to determine the effective- on reducing nutrient and pesticide losses. Limited data specific experiments, but more are needed to determine nutrient formu- human health ness of contouring are available from losses from different soil types and different pesticide and lations. Research on the potential dangers of pesticides to should be continued. Terraces and Grass Waterways (1.2) Terraces are soil embankments constructed across a slope to control erosion by diverting or storing surface runoff. Natural or constructed grass water- ways are also used to conduct surface water from cropland. Extensiveness - In 1969, 16,430,000 acres (approximately 6%) of cropland had terraces. In 1976, terrace use was estimated to have neither increased or decreased significantly from 1969 use. While terraces and grass water- ways were not important in irrigated crop production in 1976, they will in- crease to minor levels of use by 2010. Use of terraces in nonirrigated crop production will also increase by 2010, but it is not likely to be as ex- tensive as contouring. Environmental Factors - Some terrace and grass waterways land will be taken out of production, but cropping intensities per cropped acre and on slopes will increase. Thus, overall productivity will remain unchanged. In gen- eral, fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use patterns will not change significantly. Fertilizer use could increase slightly on a per acre basis if production per cropped acre is expected to increase to compensate for land taken out of production by terraces. Additionally, the incidence of predators and pests could increase with terrace or grass waterway cover area. This would require an increased use of pesticides in some areas. 10 ------- Terraces and grass waterways are more effective than contouring in con- trolling sediment loss and surface runoff. While contouring reduces soil loss 30-50 percent, reductions with terraces are usually expected to be greater. Reductions in nitrate, phosphorus, and pesticide losses will also tend to be greater for terraces and grass waterways compared to contouring, since both surface runoff and soil loss are less. Based on limited research, nitrates in ground water may also be reduced with terrace systems. Pesti- cide loss in ground water will remain unchanged or decrease slightly (com- pared to conventional farming techniques). geological Effects - While terraces and grass waterways are usually more effective in runoff and erosion control than contouring, extensiveness of use is lower for terraces. For this reason, the intensity of ecological effects of terraces is comparable to that for contouring; minor aquatic and terrestrial effects in 1985, and moderate aquatic and terrestrial ef- fects in 2010. Beneficial aquatic effects result from decreased turbidity and pesticide residues and increased species diversity. Water will also be conserved with terrace systems. Terraces and grass waterways have increased vegetative cover, creating greater wildlife species diversity, wildlife habi- tat, and natural pathways for animal populations to travel. These terres- trial effects will be minimized if terraces and waterways are kept mowed or are farmed. Additional terrestrial effects include retention of topsoil and nutrient cycles and preservation of soil integrity. No significant human health effects will result from this subtrend, since pesticide residues at present levels in surface water are not considered a human health danger. Sediment does contain bound organics. With large reductions in sediment, the in- creased organics could cause an unpleasant taste or odor in drinking water. However, this potential problem would be one of economics not human health. Research Needs - Since large reductions in water sediment could increase the relative concentration of organics and degrade drinking water quality, sed-iment standards for drinking water may need to be developed. Research data are needed to compare the effectiveness of alternative soil erosion measures in controlling nutrient losses. Research and public education are needed to determine the best maintenance management of terraces and grass waterways for wildlife habitat. Optimizing Time of Operations (1.3) With this practice, farming operations are performed to minimize the time that the soil is bare. For most areas, this means a change from fall plowing to spring plowing. Extensiveness - The number of cropland acres plowed in the spring in 1976 is not known, but the tendency for farmers to spring plow and plant earlier was judged to be increasing. Extensiveness was estimated at a moderate level in 1976 and will increase to an important level by 1985. Use should remain fairly constant between 1985 and 2010. 11 ------- Environmental Factors - In some areas yields per acre will be increased with proper timing of operations, but in other areas, a wet spring may extend tillage-planting operations beyond optimum dates, resulting in lower yields. Thus, overall productivity is not likely to be signifi- cantly changed with this subtrend. Fertilizer herbicide and insecticide use patterns are expected to remain unchanged. The optimizing of pesticide applications to avoid significant runoff from excessive rainfall events will be facilitated by more sophisticated weather forecasting methods. It is anticipated that such eventual sophistication by 2010 will greatly enhance application timing and significantly reduce losses and improve pesticide effectiveness. Spring plowing will reduce soil loss in most areas, but reductions will be very dependent upon previous crop, soil type, climate, and topographical limitations. Average reductions for soil loss based on limited research findings are estimated at 10-20 percent. Crop residues remaining through the winter can further reduce soil losses. Nutrients and pesticide resi- dues in surface water are expected to remain constant or decrease slightly. This subtrend will have no significant effect on nitrates and pesticides entering ground water, although spring plowing compared to fall plowing may increase vertical nutrient movement. Ecological Effects - Small decreases in sediment and turbidity will have minor beneficial aquatic effects in 1985 and 2010. Terrestrial effects tend to be two-fold with this subtrend. The land will benefit from reten- tion of topsoil and nutrient cycles. Wildlife will have increased winter food supply and a more structured winter environment when plowing is done in the spring and not the fall. Terrestrial effects will be minor in 1985, with limited effects in 2010. Since nutrients and pesticides in surface and ground water will not be significantly reduced with optimum timing of operations, human health effects will not change significantly. Research Needs - Continued research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of management practices as optimizing time of operations, in controlling soil loss and reducing nutrients and pesticides in the nation's waters. The development of more efficient farm implements would allow for speedier spring tillage - planting operations and reduce the necessity of fall plowing for spring plants. Narrow Rows (1.4) With narrow rows, the distance between adjoining rows of seeded crops is reduced and the number of plants per acre is increased. Corn and soybeans are especially adaptable to this practice. Extensiveness - Since 1973, 25 percent of the farm operators in certain corn producing areas have switched to narrow row corn. Narrow row crop production was estimated at moderate levels for 1976 and expected to in- crease to major levels by 2010. Currently this practice is applicable to corn and soybeans. 12 ------- Environmental Factors - Overall productivity on a per acre basis will in- crease with narrow rows. These increases could average 10-20 percent depending upon type of crop, soil conditions, climate, and other crop management practices. Fertilizer and herbicide use will increase with the use of narrower rows. More plants per acre will increase the total fertilizer requirement as much as 30-40 percent to meet the needs of the crop. However, only slight increases in herbicide use are anticipated; and insecticide use will not change with this practice. Narrow rows will not only provide more cover for the land, but will provide the cover more quickly. This will reduce the amount of soil loss, especially during the first two months of a crop year, but average reductions that can be expected are not documented. Although fertilizer use increases, the number of plants utilizing the nutrients also increases, so total nutrients in surface water will probably not increase and could decrease slightly. There will be little effect on concentrations of pesticides in surface water or on nitrates or pesticides concentrations in the ground water. Ecological Effects - Narrow row practices will have no significant ecolog- ical effects in 1985, and only minor beneficial aquatic and terrestrial effects in 2010. The beneficial effects result from decreased sediment in surface water and retention of topsoil and nutrient cycles on the land. Since nutrient and pesticide concentrations in the environment are not ex- pected to change with narrow row practices, there will be no significant human health effects. Research Needs - Use of narrow rows is an economical way to increase crop production without increasing environmental effects. Therefore the use and development of other row crops, such as cotton, suitable for narrow rows should be investigated. Optimal use of fertilizers and herbicides with narrow row practices needs to be more fully defined. Winter Cover Crops (1.5) Close grown winter cover crops are used to protect and improve the soil between periods of regular crop production. These are grown when there would otherwise be no growing plants or crop residues to protect the soil from erosion and runoff. Cover crops can serve as a second crop in some regions, especially further south, or may be plowed under in the spring for soil improvement. Extensiveness - Actual acreages of cropland planted with winter cover crops in 1976 are not known but estimated to be minor by the Phase I evaluation workshop (Volume I). By 1985 and 2010, use of winter cover crops will increase to limited levels. In the South, 80-90 percent of the cropland may be planted with winter crops. However, some of this crop- land should undoubtedly be classified under double-cropping rather than winter crops grown for cover. In other areas, the agronomic potential for winter cover crops for a second income crop or for soil improvement is substantial, although economic factors are currently marginal. 13 ------- Environmental Factors - Productivity will vary from region to region de- pending upon climatic limitations. In the areas where winter cover crops (excluding certain winter row crops grown further south on a double- cropping system) can be used as a second income crop, total yearly pro- duction per acre would normally increase. Additionally, winter cover crops can be used for winter grazing of livestock, an economic benefit to the ' farm operator. However, winter cover crops in some areas with a dry cli- mate or with an unseasonly dry winter and spring will reduce the soil moisture content and cause water stress on the following spring crop. This could result in significantly lower yearly production per acre es- pecially if the winter cover crop is used for soil improvement and not as a second income crop. Insecticide use patterns will not change significantly with winter cover crops. Herbicide use per acre may increase slightly, especially if a no- till crop will follow in the spring. Fertilizer use will vary with the use of the winter cover crop. If the cover crop is plowed under in the spring, then the nutrients are simply recycled and fertilizer use will in- crease little or not at all. Significantly increased fertilizer use, up to 100 percent increase, would be required for some winter cover crops grown as a second income crop. Winter cover crops will tend to give slight to moderate reductions in soil loss and are comparable to leaving stalkly crop residues through the winter. Nutrient loss to surface water will depend upon the additional use of fer- tilizer. Nutrient levels will be decreased slightly if commercial fertilizer use is not increased, but total yearly nutrient loss may increase if ferti- lizer use is greatly increased. Nitrate leaching into ground water will be reduced without increased fertilizer use but won't be significantly changed with increased fertilizer use. Pesticide losses to surface and ground water should not change. Ecological Effects - There will be no significant ecological effects from winter cover crops in 1985. In 2010, minor beneficial aquatic and ter- restrial effects will result from reductions in soil loss. Increased use of paraquat or similar chemicals could potentially have a minor adverse human health effect in 2010. Direct contact with this herbicide during application is particularly hazardous to humans. Research Needs - Continued pesticide research is needed to develop effec- tive alternatives to the use of paraquat and other toxic pesticides. Addi- tional research is needed to determine the extensiveness of winter cover crops, associated fertilizer use, and the effectiveness of this practice in reducing soil and nutrient losses. 2. Conservation Tillage (2) Conservation tillage covers a broad category of tillage methods that re- quire less soil disturbance during seed planting and crop growth than the conventional soil inversions with moldboard plowing. Within conservation 14 ------- tillage, two subtrends, no-tillage and reduced tillage, are included for detailed evaluation. This evaluation includes extensiveness of use, en- vironmental factors, ecological effects and research needs. The ecology workshop rated both conservation tillage practices for possible ecological effects in three areas: aquatic life, terrestrial life, and human health. The workshop ratings are given below: Aquatic (from Aquatic (from decreased increased sediment) pesticide use) Terrestrial Human Health Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 No-tillage Reduced tillage +2 +2 +3 +3 -1 -1 (Index Ratincf] -10000 -10000 */ - Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major. No-till (2.1) th no-till farming, seeding is performed without tillage preparation and ie crop is not cultivated during the production period. Extensiveness - In 1976, 7.5 million acres were under no-till farming compared to 3.3 million acres in 1972. In 1977, nearly 8 million acres (2.6 percent of cropland total) will be no-till farmed. Although this practice is expected to increase to 2010, current projected estimates (55 percent no-till in 2010) seem high. It seems likely that extensive- ness may be only 10-20 percent by 2010. Environmental Factors - Productivity values are variable, with both in- creases and decreases found with no-till practices. The type of crop cli- mate, and soil type and condition will determine yields. Not all crops or soils are recommended for no-till farming. Multicropping practices will increase with no-till and increase production on a yearly per-acre basis. Fertilizer and herbicide use is expected to increase by 15 percent with no- till farming and insecticide use will increase by about 11 percent. Since the fertilizer is not incorporated into the soil, more fertilizer will be required to penetrate the soil and enter the root zone area. Both weeds and pests are increased with no-till. With conservation tillage methods (no-till and reduced till) an estimated five million acres of fallow land or land with topographic limitations can be brought into crop production. Labor costs to the farm operator are re- duced with no-till farming. No-till will also increase the soil moisture content as much as 2 inches per year in some areas. 15 ------- Substantial soil loss reductions can be expected with no-till. Reductions of 50-95 percent are common. While these large soil loss reductions will tend to reduce nutrient loss to. surface water, total available nutrients have increased greatly with this practice. Fertilizer use has increased 15 percent and the fertilizer is surface applied. Crop residues left on soil will also increase the nitrogen content of soil as they weather. It seems likely that nutrients in the surface water will be reduced, but the reductions will be of considerable less magnitude than soil loss reductions. The effects of no-till farming on pesticide runoff are not well documented. Insecticide use and herbicide use have increased 11 and 15 percent, respect- ively. Pesticide loss to surface water will be greater for surface-applied compounds that are not incorporated into the soil. The greatest amount of pesticide loss is usually associated with surface runoff, not sediment. Finally, one research experiment found increased herbicide loss with a no- till plot compared to a conventional tilled plot after the first rain ef- fect. Even so, not enough research data exists to predict the effects of no-till farming on pesticide loss. However, it seems that the potential does exist for increased pesticide loss into surface water with no-till. Nitrates in ground water will show no significant change to small increases. Weathering of crop residues and increased fertilizer use make more nitrate available for leaching. Increased soil moisture content will allow nitrate to percolate through the soil easier and, thus, ground water nitrate concen- tration could potentially increase. Pesticide loss to ground water will not be significantly changed with no-till practices. Surface application of some pesticides will result in increased volatiliza- tion of those pesticides. The extent of volatilization will be determined by vapor pressure, molecular weight, and other chemical properties of the pesticide. Ecological Effects - No-till practices will have both beneficial and adverse ecological effects. The large soil loss reductions will decrease turbidity and increase species diversity in the aquatic environment. However, the potential of increased pesticide residues in U.S. waters will have an adverse aquatic effect. By 1985, sediment reductions as a result of no-till prac- tices will have a limited beneficial aquatic effect and a moderate bene- ficial effect by 2010. Aquatic effects from potentially increased pesti- cide residues associated with no-till will have a minor adverse effect in 1985 and in 2010. Terrestrial effects with no-till farming were also beneficial and adverse. Retention of top soil, continued nutrient cycles, and enhanced soil condi- tion and structure will benefit the land. Crop residues left through the winter provide winter food and habitat for wildlife. However, increased pesticide use needed with no-till will have direct and indirect adverse effects on non-target organisms. Terrestrial effects were given a zero rating in 1985 and 2010, not because important ecological effects will not be present with no-till, but because the beneficial and adverse effects will tend to cancel each other. 16 ------- Although no-till could increase pesticide levels in surface water, the ecology panel felt the levels would still be within the established human safety limits. Since ingestion of pesticide concentrations within these limits by humans is believed to have no harmful effects, there are ex- pected to be no known significant human health effects in 1985 or 2010. Research Needs - With no-till practices, optimum fertilizer and pesticide use practices should be established. The relationship of no-till, in- creased pesticide use, and concentration of pesticide residues in surface water run-off needs to be fully researched to help identify potential eco- logical effects. Continued research is needed for the development of ef- ficient, less-persistent pesticides and effective pesticide alternatives. Support and public education will be needed for the implementation of these newer pesticides and pesticide alternatives. Reduced Tillage (2.2) A number of tillage methods are classified as reduced tillage. These in- volve limited preparation of soil for planting and use of chemical com- pounds for weed control. The total field surface is still worked but with tillage methods other than moldboard plowing. Crop residues are usually retained on the surface and/or mixed into the top soil. Extensiveness - In 1972, 26.3 million acres were reduced-tilled compared to an estimated 58.8 million acres in 1977. An additional 40 million acres could be classified as less-tilled by 1977. This would include cropland which is chisel plowed, disced once instead of twice, and planted in rough, trashy ground. By 2010, a significantly large increase is expected for reduced tillage practices. The practice will be major in extensiveness and could include up to 50 percent of all cropland. Environmental Factors - With reduced tillage, crop yields are comparable and often slightly higher than yields from conventional tillage. Multicropping practices increase with reduced tillage and would increase yields on a yearly per acre basis. Since fertilizer nutrients must penetrate the soil and travel down to the crop root zone, fertilizer use will increase with this practice. However, reduced tillage involves more soil preparations and the fertilizer increase should not be as great for this practice as for no-till (15% increase in fertilizer use). Herbicide use will also increase for weed problems are more serious with reduced tillage compared to conventional tillage (how- ever weed problems are less with reduced tillage than for no-tillage). In- secticide use could increase as much as 8-9% for this practice. Crop residues left on the soil will increase the incidence of pests. An additional 5 million acres of fallow land or land with topographical limitations could be shifted to agriculture production with conservation tillage methods (no-tillage and reduced tillage). Reduced tillage will lead to increased soil moisture content in some areas. Farm operators will have reduced energy and labor needs with this practice. 17 ------- Soil loss will decrease with reduced tillage farming, but the effectiveness will depend upon the amount of residues left on the surface, surface rough- ness, and the amount and type of reduced tillage used. Reduced tillage is less effective than no-tillage in the control of soil loss. (Note: one research experiment indicates that average soil loss reductions may only be 14 percent when including all reduced tillage methods.) Total nutrients in surface water will probably be reduced, but reductions will not be pro- portional to the reductions in soil loss. As with no tillage, the effect of reduced tillage on pesticide loss to sur- face water is not well documented. Pesticide usage increases, loss to sur- face water is greater for surface-applied pesticides, and greater amounts of pesticide residues are lost in runoff water than with sediment. Poten- tially the amount of pesticide entering surface water could increase with reduced tillage. However, this is not proven, and reduced tillage may, in fact, little affect either the increasing or decreasing of pesticide losses into surface water. Pesticide levels in ground water will not be significantly changed with reduced tillage. No change to slight increases could occur in nitrate leaching since more fertilizer will be applied, crop residues will add to soil nitrate content, and increased soil moisture will facilitate nitrate movement through the soil. Some pesticides will have increased volatilization losses when surface applied. The amount of volatilization will depend upon vapor pressure, molecular weight, and other chemical properties of the pesticides. The increased loss of pesticides to the air with reduced tillage would prob- ably be small, since other tillage methods may also use surface applica- tion of pesticides. Ecological Effects - The ecological effects of reduced tillage are the same as those for no-tillage, both beneficial and adverse. Reduced tillage is less effective than no-till in controlling soil loss, but will be used more extensively in 1985 and 2010. Aquatic effects are divided into two categories--those from reduced sediment and those from pesticide residues in water. Limited beneficial aquatic effects result from decreased sedi- ment, decreased turbidity, and increased species diversity in 1985. In 2010, these effects will be moderate. The possibility of increased pesti- cide residues in surface water will cause minor adverse aquatic effects in 1985 and 2010. Terrestrial effects are also beneficial and adverse. Land will profit from the retention of top soil and nutrient cycles. Crop resi- dues through the winter will provide winter food supplies and habitat for the wildlife. But increased pesticide usage will have direct and indirect adverse effects on non-target organisms. Overall terrestrial ratings are zero for 1985 and 2010, because the beneficial and adverse effects tend to balance each other out. The ecology panel felt that if pesticide residues in surface water remained the same or increased slightly with reduced tillage, the levels would still 18 ------- be within the established human safety limits, and that human health ef- rects would not be significant in 1985 and 2010. If pesticide residues are round to increase more than indicated, then adverse human health ef- tects could result. ResearchNeeds_ - Optimum fertilizer and pesticide use with different re- aucea tillage systems needs to be determined. Further investigation is needed to determine the effect of reduced tillage and increased pesticide use on pesticide losses to surface water. Additionally, research should continue on the development of efficient, less-persistent pesticide and effective pesticide alternatives. 3. Improved Hater Application (3) The improved water application trend reflects a movement in irrigated crop production toward the conservation of water resources and the improvement of irrigation efficiency with the use of existing irrigation systems, better management practices, and professional irrigation scheduling. Of primary concern, is the effect of improved water application methods on the quality of return flows and on soil salinity. Five subtrends were evaluated as im- proved water application practices. Ecological ratings for each sub- trend's impact on aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health are shown below. Subtrend 3.1 Furrow basins 3.2 Land grading 3.3 Sprinklers 3.4 Recycling and controlling tail water 3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency Aquatic 1985 2010 Terrestrial 1985 2010 •(Index Ratings)' Human Health 1985 2010 -2 -1 -1 +2 +1 -3 -1 -2 +3 +1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 +1 -1 0 0 +1 0 -1 -1 0 +1 0 -/ Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major A complete discussion of each subtrend follows. Furrow Basins (3.1) Small channels or furrows are constructed to carry irrigation waters down or across the slope of fields with this practice. Furrow irrigation does not wet the entire surface but allows the water to seep through the sides and bottom of the channel to provide the necessary moisture to the crop. 19 ------- Extensiveness - In 1969, 50 percent (19.2 million acres) of irrigated crop- land used furrow type irrigation, but the extent of use in 1976 is not known, The flat regions of the West use furrow irrigation more than other areas. Environmental Factors - Yields from irrigated croplands were 11 percent higher in the East and 38 percent higher in the West than U.S. average yields in 1969. However, it is estimated that salinity reduces crop pro- duction on a fourth of all irrigated land in the Western United States and that it presents a potential hazard to one-half of the irrigated acres in the West. Productivity from irrigated cropland may decrease if salinity continues to build in these areas. Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use with furrow basins are comparable to other irrigation methods. Furrow irrigation uses an average of 2.06 acre feet of water per acre compared to an average of 1.39 acre feet of water per acre for sprinkler irrigation. Efficiency of furrow irrigation is lower than that of sprinkler or subsurface irrigation methods. The average efficiency for furrows is only about 35 percent. With furrow basins, certain management practices must be followed to reduce sediment and associated pollutants (nutrients, pesticides, and salts). These practices are listed below. 1. The slope of the furrow in the direction of water movement should not exceed 2 percent. With some soil types and in climates with intense rainfall, the slope should even be less than 2 percent. 2. Land grading is essential with furrow basins. 3. Furrow basins should be used on soils with low infiltration rates. 4. Furrows should not be used on steep or rough terrain. (See #7) 5. Water should be applied at a slow rate. 6. Ideally, the amount of irrigation water applied should be measured. 7. Benched, contoured, or diagonal furrows can be used on uneven terrain or with land that may be too steep for straight furrows. These management practices will tend to reduce pollutant losses with furrow irrigation in many areas. However, with some lands, it is nearly impossible to reduce sediment in furrow irrigation to the extent sediment and associ- ated suspended solids in return flow will meet water quality standards. In general, sediment and other pollutant losses are greater for furrow irriga- tion than for sprinkler or subsurface methods. Scheduling irrigations, lining of conveyance ditches and furrow drops, and improved drainage facil- ities could be used with furrow basins to increase efficiency and further reduce pollutant losses. Significant ground water pollution occurs with furrow irrigation use. Ni- trates and other salts become concentrated in ground water entering rivers. It is doubtful if improved furrow irrigation management will significantly reduce ground water pollutants without irrigation scheduling and improved irrigation facilities (lining of conveyance ditches and furrow drops, im- proved drainage and catch facilities, etc.) 20 ------- Salinity buildup tends to be greater for furrow irrigation. Not only is the water less efficiently used, but also, salts tend to concentrate in the surface, in the center of beds, and at the highest points in the fields with furrows. Ecological Effects Furrow irrigation will have limited adverse aquatic effects in 1985 and moderate adverse aquatic effects in 2010. These ef- fects are the result of sediment, nutrients, pesticide residues, and salts which will enter U.S. waters through surface and ground water from furrow- irrigated land. In evaluating the aquatic effects of furrow basins, it was assumed that return flows would not be adequately controlled and that surface and ground water from irrigated land will enter U.S. rivers. With adequate control of return flow, these adverse effects could be signifi- cantly reduced. The land will suffer with furrow irrigation use if soil salinity continues to be a problem. In 1985, furrow irrigation will have limited adverse terrestrial effects and in 2010, moderate adverse effects. Concentrations of salts in U.S. rivers where irrigation is practiced have increased over the past two decades and will continue to increase in the future. Drinking water quality has been and will be further degraded. Nitrate concentrations in water will continue to increase and could present potential future human health dangers. For these reasons, furrow irrigation will have minor adverse human health effects in 1985 and 2010. Research Needs - Continued research is needed in irrigation methods, irri- gation facilities, and control of return flows to determine how these can be used to help achieve water quality standards and reduce soil salinity. The feasibility of water renovation programs and cost incentives needs to be more fully investigated if water quality standards cannot be met by irrigation best management practices. With the increase of saline waters in the West, the effects of salinity on human and animal health should be fully researched. A productive and economic use for return flows is needed. Land Grading (3.2) I/ Land grading is the leveling of the land's surface for better movement of water over the land or for soil erosion control. In this discussion, land grading will be evaluated only as an irrigation practice for improved water application. Extensiveness Land grading is used most often in irrigated crop production in conjunction with basin, border, or furrow irrigation methods. Actual extensiveness of use in 1976 is not known, but land grading was assessed by the irrigated crop production panel (Evaluation Workshop, Volume I), as having important use in 1976 and increasing to major use by 1985 and 2010. —• Land grading was not originally defined by the Contractor and was added to runoff and erosion control subtrends by the irrigated crop production subsector. However, a more appropriate place for analysis seemed to be with other subtrends specifically designated as important to irrigated crop production, i.e., within the improved water application trend. 21 ------- Environmental Factors - Productivity can increase with land grading in irrigated crop production as water will flow through the irrigation chan- nels more uniformly. Land grading will help prevent water logging and high spot salinity areas in a field. Increased yields can be signifcant if the irrigated terrain was previously very rough and uneven. Irrigation water needs can be reduced up to 40 percent on some rough ter- rain. With terrain that is already flat, water needs may not be signifi- cantly reduced. Decreased water use will also slightly reduce soluble fertilizer requirements. Herbicide and insecticide use patterns will not change with land grading. Elimination of excessive water applications through the use of land grading will reduce soil, pesticide, and nutrient losses to surface water. However, these reductions will not reduce these pollutants to a level that return flows will meet water quality standards. Slight reductions are expected for nitrates, ground water with the use of land grading to cation. With terrain that is already nearly water will not be significantly reduced. salts and pesticide levels in reduce excessive water appli- flat, pollutants in ground Land grading will reduce high spot soil salinity areas in irrigated cropland. Overall soil salinity will decrease very little unless water requirements are significantly reduced. Ecological Effects - Land grading was evaluated by the ecology workshop as a practice that would be used with furrow irrigation. The practice will be beneficial to irrigated agriculture by reducing the adverse effects of fur- row irrigation. Salt will still enter the river systems and salt concentra- tions in these rivers will increase with time. For this reason, land grading will have a minor adverse aquatic effect in 1985 and 2010. Salinity in soil will still occur with land grading, but won't be as great for this practice as with furrow irrigation alone. Thus, minor adverse terrestrial effects will result in 1985 and 2010. Potential nitrate levels will also increase in rivers receiving irrigation return flows via surface and ground water. This potential for increasing nitrate levels will have a minor adverse human health effect in 2010. Research Needs - Research needs for land grading are the same as those for furrow irrigation -- continued research on efficiency, management, and for alternative irrigation methods to meet water quality standards and to con- trol soil salinity. Sprinklers (3.3) With sprinkler systems, irrigation water is uniformily distributed to the crop as spray. Extensiveness - In 1969, 7.2 million acres (18.8 percent of all irrigated cropland) used sprinkler irrigation. Extensiveness of use of sprinkler irrigation in 1976 is not known, but it is expected to have increased 22 ------- since 1969. Although further increases in use are expected for sprinkler systems in the future, depletion of ground water supplies will tend to limit their use in some areas, especially in semi-arid regions of the West. Increased use for optimizing crop quality, as well as quantity, can be ex- pected in the East and upper Mid-West. Environmental Factors - In 1969, yields from irrigated cropland in the West were 32 percent greater than the U.S. average. In the East, yields were 11 percent higher than U.S. averages for irrigated cropland. While these fig- ures include irrigated crop yields from all methods of irrigation, produc- tivity from a single method, such as sprinkler, will show comparable results. Currently crop production is reduced on one-fourth of the irrigated acres in the Western U.S. due to soil salinity. Overall productivity from land that is kept as irrigated cropland will continue to be high, but some land will be taken out of production as salinity increases above the crops tol- erance. Additionally, sprinkler irrigation in some Western areas may have only highly saline waters available for irrigation use. This can leave toxic, often lethal deposits on crop foliage. Nor are all crops suitable to sprinkler irrigation methods. Certain crops are very susceptible to fungi and have increased incidence of fungi infections from the high moisture conditions of sprinkler irrigation. Fertilizer, pesticide, and insecticide use with sprinkler irrigations are comparable to their use in other irrigation methods. Sprinkler irrigation requires an average of 1.39 acre feet of water per acre, considerably less than furrow irrigation water requirements (an average of 2.06 acre feet of water per acre). Efficiency of sprinkler irrigation averages 50-60 percent. Soil, nutrients, and pesticide losses to surface water are, generally, less with sprinkler irrigation methods than with furrow methods. Applica- tion rates and the amount of water applied can be more closely monitored with sprinkler systems. These will tend to reduce excessive water applica- tions, and, thus, reduce runoff and erosion. Little data is available on the quantification of pollutants entering surface water from sprinkler irrigated land. With some management practices and soil types, pollutants could probably be significant. Ground water pollution also tends to be less for sprinkler irrigation than for furrow irrigation. However, use of sprinkler irrigation cannot be relied upon to significantly reduce nitrates, pesticides and salt levels in ground water. Improvement of pollutant levels in ground water with sprinkler irri- gation can result with irrigation scheduling and improve irrigation facili- ties. Soil salinity is less for sprinkler irrigation than with other surface irri- gation methods; however, salinity continues to be a problem in many areas, regardless of the type of irrigation method used. 23 ------- Ecological Effects - Sediment, nutrient, and pesticide losses to surface water will be less with sprinkler irrigation compared to other surface irri- gation methods. This will have a beneficial effect on aquatic life. How- ever, sprinkler irrigation use has seriously depleted ground water supplies in some areas and will continue to reduce these supplies in 1985 and 2010. For this reason, sprinkler irrigation was evaluated as having minor adverse effects in 1985 and limited adverse aquatic effects in 2010. Minor adverse terrestrial effects in 1985 and 2010 will be found with sprinkler use. Soil salinity will continue to be a problem and wildlife habitat will be destroyed as fence rows are removed to facilitate sprinkler irrigation. The potential for increased nitrates in surface water is reduced with sprinkler irrigation; thus human health impacts in 1985 and 2010 will not be significant with this practice. Research Needs - The depletion of ground water supplies should be carefully monitored to determine the seriousness of the problem and to evaluate irri- gated agriculture's role in preventing further depletions. The feasibility of using municipal waste effluents in sprinkler systems for agriculture irrigation should be thoroughly investigated. Additionally, continued re- search is needed to evaluate irrigation methods and the management of and/or the adding of the irrigation facilities necessary to reduce soil salinity and for return flows to meet water quality standards. Recycling and Controlling Tailwater (3.4) Only part of the total return flow, tailwater is the excess surface water remaining after irrigation (the rest of the return flow is sub-surface drainage water). Under this practice, tailwater is not allowed to run into rivers and streams but is either diverted to an off-site or is collected in a reservoir or tail ditch for irrigation reuse. Although control of sub- surface drainage waters is not actually included in the practice of re- cycling and controlling tailwater, it is included in parts of this dis- cussion to show how these waters can also affect environmental quality. Extensiveness - The extensiveness of recycling and controlling tailwater in 1976 is not known. However, as stricter controls are imposed on agriculture point and nonpoint sources of pollution, this practice is expected to in- crease to help meet water quality standards. Use was estimated to be limited in 1976, moderate in 1985, and important in 2010 (the evaluation workshop, Volume I). Environmental Factors - Productivity will not increase or decrease signifi- cantly with proper management of recycled tailwater. Application of tail- water back on irrigated crops without proper dilution or settling could re- sult in slight decreases in crop yields. With proper management, yields with recycled tailwater will be comparable to yields with water from other irrigation sources. While water that is collected from subsurface drain- age systems will require more treatment than tailwater before reuse due to 24 ------- nigh salt concentrations, limited research data suggests that subsurface return flows are not being recycled for irrigation use, but are diverted to other areas for disposal. Application of such water, however, without treatment could cause significantly large reductions in crop yields in some areas. Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use will not significantly change with the recycling and control of tailwater. Water use will be reduced with this practice, as much as 30 percent with some methods of surface irrigation. If water use has already been reduced through monitoring the amount of water applied and/or through irrigation scheduling, then water use may be reduced very little with this practice. While installa- tion of tailwater reuse systems will present an initial cost to the farm operator, reuse of runoff water can reduce the ultimate cost of water. Installation of tile drains and collection systems for control of sub- surface water will be a more costly operation and will probably not be widely used. Control of tailwater can significantly reduce the amount of sediment, pesti- cides, and nutrients entering surface water. The pollutants will be con- fined to the field where they originated. Control of tailwater will have little or no effect on salt concentrations in surface water. However, control of subsurface drainage waters would reduce the amount of salt that would enter rivers and streams from groundwater. Soil salinity will not be significantly affected with the control and reuse of tailwater. Subsurface drainage systems can be used to control salinity buildup at or near the ground surface. Ecological Effects - Recycling and controlling tailwater will be beneficial to aquatic life. Reduced sediment, nutrients, and pesticides in water cur- rently receiving surface drainage from irrigated cropland will decrease tur- bidity and increase species diversity in these waters. Less water will be required for irrigations when tailwater is recycled. In 1985, this practice will have limited beneficial effects on aquatic life and by 2010, with more extensive use of this practice, effects will be moderately beneficial. Con- trol of all return flow, surface and subsurface, would further benefit aquatic life with reduction of salt concentrations entering U.S. waters. However only control of tailwater is included in this assessment, and, addi- tionally, control of all return flow does not currently seem to be a likely development. Soil salinity will not be controlled with recycling of tailwater. If tail- water is not reused, but diverted to some other receiving area, the poten- tial exists for increased environmental impacts in that area. For these reasons, control of tailwater will have minor adverse terrestrial effects in 1985 and 2010. Nitrate levels will be significantly reduced in water supplies with the control of tailwater resulting in minor beneficial human health effects in 1985 and 2010. 25 ------- Research Needs - Continued research is needed on the quality of return flows, their effects on water quality and on economically feasible ways to control return flows. Disposal of tailwater and subsurface drainage waters that are not recycled for irrigation use should be investigated. More public education is needed to inform farm operators that control of tailwater would be beneficial to them as well as to the environment. Irrigation Scheduling and Efficiency (3.5) Irrigation scheduling is used to improve efficiency by applying optimum amounts of irrigation water to a particular crop at times when that crop can use the water most effectively. Generally, less water will be applied and less water will end up as return flow with scheduling. Extensiveness - In 1974, professional irrigation scheduling was used on 382,000 acres of irrigated cropland (approximately 1 percent). Addi- tionally, some farm operators probably used non-professional methods to provide some type of scheduling to their crops. However, these methods are often not as scientific or accurate as professional scheduling. Ex- tensiveness of use was estimated at moderate levels in 1976 by the first evaluation workshop and was expected to increase to major levels by 2010. Environmental Factors - Increased crop yields and improved crop quality can be expected with irrigation scheduling. Fertilizer use could be reduced slightly with irrigation scheduling and other irrigation efficiency practices. Herbicide and insecticide use patterns would not be changed with improved water efficiency. Water use will decrease an average of 10 percent with scheduling. Lining of irri- gation conveyance ditches can further increase efficiency and reduce water requirements by 20 percent in many areas. Sediment, nutrient, and pesticide losses to surface water will be reduced with irrigation scheduling. Salt concentrations in surface runoff are comparable to those of the original irrigation water and will not be signi- ficantly affected with scheduling. Salt concentrations in ground water can be significantly reduced with the elimination of irrigation conveyance losses. With irrigation systems that allow uniform, monitored water applications, scheduling can reduce salt loads in return flows, but this reduction is not expected to significantly influence salinity in return flows except where salt buildup is a major factor. Other irrigation systems may not show a decrease in salinity in the return flow with scheduling. Soil salinity decreases with scheduling, particularly since water use for salt leaching is usually included as part of the practice. Also, with more frequent monitored water application, salt concentrations are not as likely to build up to dangerous levels in the soil. 26 ------- Ecological Effects - In 1985 and in 2010, irrigation scheduling and ef- ficiency practices will result in minor beneficial aquatic effects from decreased water use. Small decreases in water salinity will also occur in some areas. Terrestrial and human health effects will not be signifi- cant in 1985. However, in 2010, terrestrial effects will be of minor benefit since soil salinity will show small reductions. Research Needs - Continued research is needed on irrigation scheduling and other efficiency practices to help control quality of return flows and soil salinity. Additionally, more public education is needed for the farm operator to recognize the economic and environmental benefits of im- proving irrigation efficiency through professional scheduling, improved irrigation facilities, and improved irrigation management. 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants (4) Improvement of seeds and plants covers a broad area of genetic research in plants. Improved weather resistance, salt resistance, improved production efficiency, and disease, insect, and nematode resistance are four important areas which are analyzed as subtrends within this trend. While research on these subtrends has been continuing for several years, commercial applica- tions are still in their infancy and are classified here as developments rather than current practices. Their assessment is based on the assumption that gradual genetic improvements in resistance and production efficiency will occur by 1985 with further improvements by 2010. Ecological ratings used in indicating the intensity of ecological effects in three areas, aquatic, terrestrial, and human health are shown below. Subtrend 4.1 "Weather resistance 4.2 Salt resistance 4.3 Production efficiency 4.4 Disease, insect, and nematode resistance Aquatic 1985 2010 Terrestrial 1985 2010 •(Index Rating)* Human Health 1985 2010 0 0 0 +2 0 -1 -1 +4 0 0 0 +1 0 -1 0 +3 0 0 0 +1 0 0 0 +2 —/ Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects ratings on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major Weather Resistance (4.1) Weather resistance is genetically bred into crop varieties so they will have higher tolerance to heat, cold, drought, and wind. With such de- velopments, agriculture can be expanded in areas that have less favorable growing seasons. 27 ------- Extensiveness - Improvements in weather resistance have occurred in some field crops. Soybeans with a shorter growing season are being grown in some northern areas of the U.S. Drought tolerant strains of corn and wheat have shown sustained yields in dry years. Gradual improvements will continue to be made with weather resistance in crop varieties, but no major developments are expected in this area in the near future, i.e., weather resistant crop strains that will allow significant year-round cropping. Environmental Factors - Productivity will increase with weather resistant crops. In years of drought or prolonged cold springs, yields may be main- tained with these crops. Crop production could be expanded into areas with more stressful climates, too. Multicropping practices will increase in some areas; however, it is doubtful if year-round cropping will occur throughout most of the U.S. Rather, crops will be developed for normal growing seasons that will be more tolerant of weather stress. Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use will not change with weather re- sistant crops in the near future. If major developments in weather re- sistance made year-round cropping feasible, significantly large increases in fertilizer use and smaller increases in pesticide use would be expected. Weather resistance crops will not result in any significant pollutant changes in the media, unless multicropping practices and year-round cropping prac- tices increase. Pollutants in the media would also increase with these practices, but extensiveness of these practices (from weather resistant crops) is expected to be very minor in 2010. Ecological Effects - There will be no significant ecological effects with weather resistant crop varieties in 1985 or 2010. Multicropping practices and crop production on marginal land is not expected to significantly in- crease with this subtrend; thus, media pollutants will not change signi- ficantly either. Research Needs - Continued research is needed for the improvement of weather resistant crop varieties. The environmental implications of in- creased multicropping practices with this subtrend should be included in the research. Salt Resistance (4.2) With advances in plant genetics, certain crops are being bred to withstand high salt concentrations. These crops could be grown in areas of the U.S. where soil and available irrigation water have become so saline that crop production is impaired or is no longer economically feasible with existing varieties. Extensiveness - Limited field trials with salt resistant crop strains are encouraging, but commercial use of these crops is several years away. Re- search with salt resistance continues, with expected use in irrigated crop production before 2010. 28 ------- Environmental Factors - Productivity in irrigated agriculture will increase with the use of salt resistant crop strains. Irrigated cropland that has become too saline for crop production and allowed to lie fallow, could be brought back into production. Additionally, some salt marsh lands could be used for agriculture. Fertilizer, insecticide and herbicide use would not be changed with the use of salt resistant crops on existing farm land. Significant pollu- tant changes in the media are expected only with new or fallow lands. Ecological Effects - In 1985, no significant ecological effects will result from salt resistant crops. By 2010, commercial use of these crops seems likely, and minor adverse aquatic and terrestrial effects will occur. The use of salt resistant crops will permit cropping on brackish coastline soils, on salt marsh areas, and on fallow saline land. Disruption of the coastline and loss of wildlife habitat on fallow saline land will occur. If significant cropping of brackish coast line soils occurs, the anticipated increase of pesticides and associated runoff into adjacent estuary areas is a probability. Such could have serious consequences in the nursery grounds for shrimp, crab, and many species of commercial and game fish. The un- fortunate location of these soils will also result in air borne drift re- sulting from pesticide application measures. Production Efficiency (4.3) Production efficiency in crops result from improved biochemical and genetic control of plant processes. Optimally a plant would be able to utilize nu- trients, sunlight, and water more efficiently, and have desirable root de- velopment, high yields, and higher quality yields. Extensiveness - Substantial improvements in agriculture crop production have been made in the past two decades. The improvements largely resulted from a combination of new varieties, high rates of fertilization, high plant populations, disease resistance plants, and control of insects and weeds. While research results will continue to make small improvements in crop pro- duction, comparable advances are not likely to be obtained in the future until plant photosynthetic processes can be controlled. This does not seem a likely development by 1985 and is questionable by 2010. Environmental Factors - Use of crops with improved production efficiency would significantly increase yields and improve quality of yields. However increased productivity from this development will depend upon when and if plant photosynthetic processes can be controlled. Herbicide and insecticide use would not significantly change with this de- velopment. Fertilizer requirements would increase with large changes in production efficiency, especially if the protein content of a crop is ex- pected to be maintained or increased. 29 ------- Increased fertilizer use could result in small increases in nutrient losses to surface and ground water. While the crop would tend to use nutrients more efficiently during growth, the potential for increased nutrient loss exists immediately after application. No other pollutants changes in the media are expected. Ecological Effects - In 1985, no significant ecological effects will occur. By 2010increased fertilizer use could have a minor adverse aquatic effect if major developments have occurred in plant production efficiency. Terres- trial and human health effects will not be significantly changed in 2010. Research Needs - Continued research is needed for the development of produc- tion efficiency in plants. On-going research projects should be monitored. Disease, Insect, and Nematode Resistent Crops (4.4) Research in plant genetics has also produced field crops with a high toler- ance to disease, insects, and nematodes. Tough stems and stalks, plants with an unappealing taste to insects, and hairy leaves are all genetic de- velopments in crops that reduce losses to disease and insects. Extensiveness - Nearly 75 percent of agriculture crops have some resistance to at least one type of disease, insect, or nematode. The inbred resistance is often in the form of higher tolerance of a hardier strain, but a crop is rarely ever entirely resistant to all diseases or insects. Research con- tinues to develop more resistant crop varieties to replace those less re- sistant varieties currently used. By 2010, more crop varieties should be available for commercial use. Environmental Factors - Resistant crop varieties and improved resistant varieties will continue to increase productivity in the future. Production losses from certain diseases, insects, and nematodes can be substantially reduced with resistant crops. Fertilizer and herbicide use will not change with resistant crops. Insecti- cide use will decrease, as highly insect resistant crops become available for commercial use. Since crop resistance is generally insufficient to completely control insects, supplemental chemical insecticide treatments are normally required. However, fewer treatments are needed. There are a few crop varieties that are entirely resistant to insects and have no insecti- cide requirements. Insecticide residues in the media will be reduced as more resistant crop varieties are developed and adopted for use. By 2010, reductions in resi- dues could be quite substantial. In many areas, soil and nutrient losses will not be significantly affected by resistant crops. In areas so affected with disease, insects, or nematodes that crop yields are greatly reduced, resistant crop varieties will provide for better ground cover and for more efficient use of fertilizer. This will cause some reductions in soil and nutrient loss in those areas. 30 ------- Ecological Effect - Beneficial ecological effects with this development will stem, primarily, from decreased insecticide use. There will be lower levels of insecticide residues in surface water and in aquatic life. Decreased insecticide use would benefit non-target wildlife species which are often exposed to high concentrations during application. With decreased use, there is less chance of direct exposure of toxic insecticides to humans. In 1985, limited beneficial aquatic effects and minor terrestrial and human health effects will result with resistant crops. All effects will increase in intensity by 2010, when crops are expected to be even more resistant to disease, insects, and nematodes and insecticide use will further decrease. Aquatic effects will be important, terrestrial effects moderate and human health effects limited by 2010. Research Needs - Continued research is needed in the development of crop varieties more resistant to disease, insects, and nematodes. On-going research should be monitored. 5. Scouting and Integrated Control (5) Two basic practices, subtrends, were analyzed within the trend: scouting and integrated control. Scouting includes both surface scouting and remote sensing. Integrated controls involve the use of biological and/or mechan- ical treatment in conjunction with chemicals. In 1976, neither of these practices were being extensively used, primarily because the diagnostic and predictive techniques thus far developed and used in scouting have not been reliable. In many cases, damage has occurred by the time pest problems have been identified. Also, although integrated control is not a new con- cept, many of the biological controls required to make the system effective are still in the developmental stage. While these practices are not in widespread use currently, they will likely become significant factors in crop production in the future. The .ecology panel rated the effects of the scouting and integrated control trend as beneficial generally. Their ecological effects ratings for aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health are as follows: Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 ___ (index Rating)* 5.1 and 5.2 Scouting- surface and remote sensing +1 +3 +1 +3 0 +1 5.3 Integrated control +1 +4 +1 +4 0 +2 -/ Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major 31 ------- Scouting - Surface and Remote Sensing (5.1 and 5.2) With surface scouting, pests, diseases and potential crop damage are deter- mined by visual inspection; remote sensing scouting, however, primarily involves the determination of insect populations, diseases and/or crop damage through satellite systems. Extensiveness - The use of scouting was estimated as minor in extensiveness in 1976, but by 1985 it is expected to become more widely used, particularly in the nonirrigated areas. By 2010, it will be widely used and represent a major factor in crop production. Environmental Factors - Scouting is not expected to have any significant impact on fertilizer or herbicide use since nutrient requirements will be unaffected and effective weed control will continue to require herbicide applications. Significant reduction in insecticide use can be expected when scouting becomes widespread; consequently, appreciable reductions of pesticide residues in the soil and water are projected by 2010. Ecological Effects - Scouting is expected to have beneficial effects on the ecological systems because of the reduced pesticide use. Although these effects are expected to be minor in 1985, moderate effects are antic- ipated by 2010 involving the aquatic and terrestrial systems. With the reduction of insecticide use, less re-entry problems are likely to occur, reducing the health hazards. However, the overall effect on human health is considered to be relatively minor in 2010. Research Needs - Specific research needs have not been identified although the timeliness and reliability of scouting needs further development. The expanded use of scouting will depend more on education than it will in im- provements in specific techniques. Integrated Controls (5.3) With integrated controls, chemical, biological, and mechanical treatment methods are combined to achieve control of pests and diseases in crop pro- duction. Successful integrated controls depend on natural pest population control, along with a combination of techniques that contribute to the suppression of pest-specific diseases such as resistant crop varieties, sterile insect, attractants, use of predators, or chemical pesticides as needed. Extensiveness - Some of these methods are in their infancy and are not yet widely accepted or feasible. Consequently, the overall use of inte- grated controls in 1976 was limited. However, by 1985, use of this system will increase to a moderate level and by 2010, integrated controls should be in major use. Environmental Factors - Significant reduction can be expected in insecti- cide use with the adoption of integrated controls. Consequently, reduced 32 ------- pesticide residues can be expected in the soil and water, particularly in 2010, when these systems become widely used. Ecological Effects - Integrated controls for the most part limit pesticide use to target organisms; consequently, both the aquatic and terrestrial system would be enhanced with the resultant pesticide reduction. However, this enhancement should not become fully apparent until 2010 when the systems come into wide use. Thus, use of integrated controls will have only minor aquatic and terrestrial effects in 1985, but important effects on these two systems by 2010. Human health effects will be limited in 2010. Research Needs - Research in this area should be supported with education in the benefits of these controls. 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides (6) A total of seven developments or subtrends involving new biological and chemical pesticides were analyzed in the initial environmental assessment. These include: 6.1 Micro-encapulated pesticides 6.2 Systemic pesticides 6.3 Surfactants for herbicides 6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides 6.5 Alternative formulations 6.6 Juvenile hormones 6.7 Pheromones 6.8 Sterile males 6.9 Predators and parasites Although much is known about systemic pesticides, surfactants, biodegrad- able pesticides, alternative formulations, predators, parasites, and sterile males, the use of developments in these areas are still in the "field-scale trials" or "limited use" stages and the probability or extent of adoption and the measure of the environmental impacts of the individual developments cannot yet be adequately gauged. Consequently, the ecology workshop com- bined the developments in their evaluation into two categories: chemical and biological. For this reason, the subsequent discussion covers the trend in those two categories. Also since the developments are largely experimental, the extensiveness is excluded from the discussion. The ratings assigned by the ecology workshop are as follows: 33 ------- Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 . (Index Rating)* Development of new chemical pesticides +1 +3 +1 +2 +1 +2 Development of new bio- logical pesticides +1 +3 +1 +3 +1 +3 - Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major Development of New Chemical Pesticides (6.1 - 6.5) These developments include those of micro-encapulated pesticides, systemic pesticides, surfactants, bio-degradable pesticides, and alternative formu- lations. Environmental Factors - The overall amounts of pesticides required are ex- pected to be decreased from those that would be required with existing types of pesticides. Most of the reductions would result from increased efficien- cies. The greatest potential reduction would be associated with surfactants with possible decreases in herbicide use by as much as 50 percent. Because of expected reductions in requirements, less runoff into surface waters is anticipated. There would not only be less runoff, but also less toxicity if developments in biodegradable pesticide come into widespread use. A de- crease in pesticide residues in the soil (relative to existing pesticides) can be expected with these developments, particularly those of herbicides. However, the full impacts of residues caused by systemic pesticides are not known at this time, especially with nontarget organisms. Ecological Effects - Beneficial ecological effects can generally be expected with the greatest benefits expected from developments in biodegradable pest- icides. Since these pesticides would ideally be selective and less toxic to animals and humans, minor benefits can be anticipated in all ecosystems by 1985. Species diversity would be increased in both the terrestrial and aquatic systems and health hazards would be reduced. By 2010, use of new chemical pesticides is expected to have moderate benefit and aquatic effects and limited beneficial effects on terrestrial life and human health. Although favorable effects can be expected, for the most part, potential problems may exist with the developments in systemic and micro-encapsulated pesticides where persistence may increase. Research Needs - Research is needed on the environmental effects of chem- ical pesticides as they are developed including studies of systemic resi- dues and the nature of degradation products. Research is also needed on bio-magnification in the food chain and effects of pesticides in the de- composing food chain. 34 ------- Developments of New Biological Pesticide (6.6 - 6.9) These developments include the use of juvenile hormones, pheromones, sterile males, predators, and parasites. Environmental Factors - Biological pesticides are normally insect specific; consequently, the level of total insecticide use is not expected to de- crease significantly as a result of adoption of new biological pesticides. The use of juvenile hormones and pheromones can be expected to leave resi- dues in the water and soil; however, their quantities are too insignificant to be harmful to animals or humans. Ecological Effects - On a national scale, the benefits of new biological pesticides will be relatively minor with no significant breakthroughs re- ceiving widespread technological applications expected by 1985. By 2010, substantial advancement in these developments can be expected and the eco- logical effects should be moderate in intensity. Developments are expected to have regional implications where enhancement of regional ecological systems may become significant. Research Needs - Research is needed in the predator and parasite area to determine the potential consequences of these agents after the target in- sects have been controlled or eradicated, but present USDA use controls are stringent enough to lessen the theoretical dangers. Research is more importantly needed to further develop and optimize the use of pheromones, juvenile hormones, and host specific bacterial and viral pest diseases. 7. Methods of Nutrient Application (7) Seven subtrends involving methods of applying nutrients were analyzed. These subtrends, listed below, involve the form in which fertilizer is applied, the timing and frequency of application, and the type of appli- cators used. Although there is a considerable amount of discussion of these technologies in the literature, very little can be found on their environmental implications. Consequently, environmental factor assess- ments were based on a limited number of research findings. The evalua- tions of the ecology workshop are shown below. According to the work- shop, the use of foliar applications, liquid fertilizers, and improved placement of fertilizer will have very little change in ecosystem ef- fects. Fall applications were considered to have the most significant effects, and these were expected to be adverse. 35 ------- Subtrend 1 Foliar application 2 Multiple applications 3 Fall applications 4 Liquid fertilizer 5 Aerial and floater application Improved nutrient place- ment 7.7 Irrigation application 7.6 Aquatic 1985 2010 0 +1 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 +1 -3 0 0 0 -1 Terrestrial 1985 2010 (Index Rating)* Human Health 1985 0 0 0 0 +1 0 0 0 +1 0 0 +2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2010 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 —' Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major. Foliar Application (7.1) With foliar applications, fertilizer is sprayed on growing plants so that nutrients may be taken up through the leaves of the plant. Foliar applica- tions are primarily used as an adjunct to conventional fertilization. Extensiveness - This method is currently in an experimental stage with only limited production trials. In 1976, the utilization of this technique was slight and it is expected to increase to minor levels only by 2010. Environmental Factors - Since nutrient uptake by plants is expected to be more efficient through foliar applications, the expected runoff of nutrients should be less than comparable levels of surface applied fertilizer. How- ever, insufficient data exists to assess the environmental effects of actual trials. Potential drift problems can occur; however, this can be effectively controlled through proper timing of application. Ecological Effects - No significant change in ecological effects are ex- pected from the slight increase in the use of foliar application. Research Needs - Research on the technology and agronomic results of foliar application should include an investigation of environmental im- plications. Multiple Applications (7.2) Multiple applications of fertilizer refer to more than one time of appli- cation in order to realize optimum growth and crop production. 36 ------- Extensiveness - In 1976, greater than 40 percent of the cropland received more than one application of fertilizer. This practice is expected to increase significantly by 2010. Environmental Factors - Multiple applications of fertilizer are generally more agronomically efficient than single applications; consequently, overall fertilizer requirements are expected to be slightly less under this practice than with a single application. In multiple applications, fewer nutrients are available for runoff or leaching. This coupled with the overall re- duced fertilizer requirement (when compared to single application) is ex- pected to reduce both nutrient runoff and leaching. An adverse impact on the environment can be expected from a slight increase in soil compaction associated with multiple applications. Ecological Effects - Multiple applications can be expected to have rela- tively minor but beneficial effects on the aquatic and terrestrial eco- systems. The reduction in nutrients in the surface water will decrease the potential for eutrophication. Also, the potential for nitrogen leach- ing will be reduced. Human health will not be significantly affected with this application practice. Research Needs - Research is required to determine the differential in nutrient runoff and leaching resulting from multiple and single applica- tions. Fall Application (7.3) With fall application, fertilizer is applied during the fall season prior to the primary growing season of the crops. Extensiveness - In 1976, 39 percent of all fertilizers were fall applied. This method of application occurred for the most part in nonirrigated areas. Use will increase slightly by 2010. Environmental Factors - Because of the fertilizer loss during the winter prior to the growing season, this method of application is less efficient than spring application. Consequently, the increasing amount of fertili- zer fall applied will tend to increase the overall fertilizer use. Because of the greater amounts of fertilizer applied and the potential of runoff and leaching during the winter season, nutrient losses to surface and ground water will be increased. Ecological Effects - Fall application is considered to have the most ad- verse ecological effects of any of the application techniques analyzed. These occur both in the aquatic system (limited adverse effects in 1985 and moderate effects in 2010) and on human health (minor adverse effects in 1985 and 2010). The increased nutrient runoff will result in increased eutrophication while the increased leaching poses potential problems in nitrate contamination of ground water. No significant effects are ex- pected on the terrestrial system. Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the regional environmental impacts of fall application. 37 ------- Liquid Fertilizer (7.4) Application of nutrients in liquid form is practiced partially as a means of enhancing crop production and also as an efficient method of handling fertilizer material. Extensiveness - In 1975, 30 percent of all fertilizer applied was liquid. This represents an average annual increase of close to 3 percent over the past seven years. Use is expected to increase significantly by 2010 to major levels. Environmental Factors - The productivity of liquid fertilizers is generally slightly higher than equivalent solid forms. To a slight extent the over- all fertilizer requirement may be reduced when compared to the amount that would be required with the use of solid fertilizer. Since there is no sub- stantial differences in the pollution effect of the two forms of fertilizer, a slight reduction can be expected in the availability of nutrients for runoff and leaching. Ecological Effects - No significant change in ecological effects is ex- pected to result from the trend towards the increasing use of liquid fer- tilizer. Research Needs - On-going research involving liquid fertilizers should address the environmental implications. Aerial and Floater Application (7.5) This method refers to fertilizer application by aircraft and by ground vehicles (floaters) equipped with high floatation tires designed to reduce soil compaction and to permit application during wet weather. Extensiveness - In 1976, an estimated 50 percent of all cropland was traversed at least once with floater vehicles for fertilizer applica- tion. Less than five percent of cropland was estimated to have been fertilized aerially. The total cropland having fertilizer applied by either means is expected to increase slightly by 2010. Environmental Factors - No significant changes are expected in the amounts of nutrients delivered to surface and ground water as a result of the in- crease in these means of application. A slight decrease in soil compaction can be expected with the use of floaters. A small loss of fertilizers can be expected because of the drift associated with aerial delivery; however, overall this is not expected to be significant. Ecological Effects - No significant effects are expected on either the aquatic system or human health as a result of the increasing use of these application methods. Floater application will have minor effects in 1985 and limited effects in 2010 which are beneficial to the terrestrial systems from a reduction in soil compaction. 38 ------- Research Needs - Research is needed to determine nutrient runoff variations associated with alternative application methods. Improved Nutrient Placement (7.6) Improved nutrient placement may involve either aerial, water, side band or broadcast applications depending on prior methods and/or time of appli- cation during the growing season. Extensiveness - In 1976, an estimated 30 percent of the fertilizer was ap- plied under improved placement practices. This percentage is expected to increase only slightly by 2010. Environmental Factors - As a result of improved practices, fertilizer re- quirements, especially phosphorus, are expected to be slightly less than under conventional practices. The potential also exists for less nutrient loss, both because of a relatively smaller requirement and more efficient nutrient utilization. Ecological Effects - Although improved nutrient placement has the potential for less nutrient runoff, no significant effects on the ecological systems are expected. Research Needs - No major environmental effects for research needs have been identified. Irrigation Application (7.7) This practice involves the disposition of fertilizer with irrigation water to the crops. Extensiveness - An estimated 25 percent of all irrigated cropland received applications of fertilizers in irrigation water in 1976. This is expected to increase by 2010 to moderate levels. Environmental Factors - This method of application facilitates multiple applications and optimal rates and timing of applications, consequently, increased fertilizer efficiency can be expected. Although efficiency increases, loss of nutrients in the tailwater is expected to increase also, but this increase is not expected to be substantial. Ecological Effects - The increased nutrient loss to tail waters is expected to result in adverse but minor effects on the aquatic system in 1985 and 2010. No significant effects are expected on the terrestrial system or on human health. Research Needs - Research is needed in determining the amounts of nutrient loss associated with irrigation application, including variations in loss due to alternative irrigation procedures. 39 ------- 8. Soil-Plant Analysis (8) The ecology workshop assigned ratings reflecting expected effects of soil- plant analysis on ecological systems as listed below. The +_ sign indicates that the effects could be beneficial or adverse, depending on what other nutrient management practices occur. Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Subtrend 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 8.1 Soil-PIant Analysis +1 +2 00 0 0 - Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 - minor and 5 = major Soil-Plant Analysis (8.1) Soil-plant analysis involves monitoring nutrient uptake, soil nutrients available, and plant condition to provide information to adjust fertilizer rates, timing, and cultural practices. Extensiveness - About a fourth of the cropland under production was covered by some form of soil analysis in 1976 while less than 5 percent was covered by plant analysis. Normally these analyses are conducted once every three years for a specific production unit; consequently the maximum coverage in a given year that could be expected would be approximately one-third of the cropland under production. It is anticipated that the actual coverage in 2010 will be less than 30 percent in any one year. Environmental Factors - Generally, increased fertilizer application rates can be expected as a result of the conduct of soil-piant analyses. Conse- quently the increasing trend towards the use of these techniques should in- crease overall fertilizer use. Although the overall use can be expected to increase, the actual nutrient runoff should decrease because of the efficiency involved. This efficiency would occur from better timing, more effective nutrient balance, and by better meeting plant demands. Ecological Effects - The effects of the increasing use of soil-plant analy- sis on human health and the terrestrial systems are not expected to be sig- nificant. However, effects on the aquatic system may be beneficial or adverse depending on the other nutrient management techniques used. If proper management is used, runoff will decrease, resulting in an improve- ment of the system. However, if the expected increases in fertilizer use involve improper management, degradation of the system can be expected. Research Needs - On-going research designed to improve techniques in soil- plant analysis should include investigations of environmental effects. 40 ------- 9. Alternative Residual Disposal (9) Alternatives for feedlot waste disposal include storage, on-site utiliza- tion and off-site disposal. The most significant change involving the use of these methods is expected to be an increase in off-site disposal; con- sequently, this is the only alternative analyzed in the study. In its eco- logical assessment, the workshop assigned the following ratings to reflect the anticipated effects on each of the ecosystems. Subtrend 9.1 Off-site Disposal Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 (Index Rating)* -1 -2 +1 +1 -1 -1 */ - Rating Index - Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 = minor and 5 = major. Off-site Disposal (9.1) Off-site disposal involves land application of both solids and liquids through spreading and irrigation. Application is expected to be made primarily on ranges, pastures and cropland. Extensiveness - In 1976, about 500 million tons of animal wastes were generated in feedlots. The amount is expected to increase by about 30 percent in 1985 and 70 percent by 2010. Most of the increase will be disposed of through land application. At a typical disposal rate of 40 tons/acre, these incremental increases would require about 4 million acres for disposal in 1985 and 8 million in 2010. Environmental Factors - Manure generally improves the water holding capac- ity of the soil and consequently, decreases total surface runoff. Although the total surface runoff is decreased, the concentration of nitrogen and organic material is increased in the runoff. There has been no research which directly relates sediment loss with land application. However, with a reduction in surface runoff, it can be concluded that a reduction in sediment loss would occur. Application of manure can generally be ex- pected to increase soil infiltration and soil nitrogen. This increases the potential for production, but also, the potential for nitrate pollu- tion of ground water. Ecological Effects - The increase in nitrogen and BOD in surface water can be expected to increase eutrophication and accelerate algae blooms in the surface water with land application. Although the overall effect on the aquatic system is expected to be adverse (minor in 1985 and limited in 41 ------- 2010), the beneficial effect on the terrestrial system is expected to be minor with an enhancement of the soil structure resulting from the in- creased water holding capacity and the addition of organic matter. The increased soil infiltration rates promote leaching and pose a potential danger of nitrate poisoning in well water. This adverse human health ef- fect is expected to be minor in 1985 and 2010, however. Research Needs - Research is needed both to determine amounts of pollutants generated with land application at varying rates and to assess ecological effects of this application. Also, the economic feasibility of hauling manure longer distances needs further analysis. Research in the ecological area should include investigation of long-term effects of nitrates on humans, the effects of high sodium content in rations on soil defloccula- tion, and the rotations required to reduce the effects of copper, arsenic, and sodium in rations. 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates (10) In Phase I of this study, grazing practices and stocking rates were analyzed as two separate trends. However, because of the interdependence of these practices, the two have been reclassified as a single trend in Phase II. The environmental and ecological effects of these subtrends were evaluated. The initial subtrend includes an examination of the effects brought about by changes in the overall relationships between the two basic grazing systems: continuous and specialized. The ratings assigned by the ecology workshop to each of the subtrends are listed below. Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health 1985 2010 1985 2010 1985 2010 •(Index Rating)* 10.1 and 10.2 Continuous and specialized grazing +1 +2 +2+3 0 0 10.3 Complementary forage seeding 00 0-1 0 0 10.4 Controlled livestock grazing +1 +1 +1+3 0 0 — Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor, and 5 = major 42 ------- Continuous and Specialized Grazing (10.1 and 10.2) Asjndicated above, this subtrend encompasses the two basic grazing systems being utilized on range and pasture. In continuous grazing, livestock have unrestricted access to any part of the range or pasture throughout the grazing period. In the specialized systems, which include rotation systems, access is restricted during the growing season. In this analysis, the focus is on rangessince the differences of the two systems on pasture is minimized with the annual improvement associated with pasture. Extensiveness - In 1970 about 750 million acres of range were grazed; 85 percent of this was grazed under the continuous system while 15 percent was grazed under the more intensive specialized systems. By 2010, it is esti- mated that close to 800 million acres will be grazed, of which 35 percent will be under specialized grazing and only about 65 percent under continuous Environmental Factors - In general, the trend towards specialized systems can be expected to increase the basal area, improve the quality of vege- tation, and reduce bare areas on the range. Consequently, a reduction in runoff of both sediment and nutrients can be expected. Soil conditions will be somewhat improved from increased infiltration rate and decreased compaction. On the other hand, the increased soil infiltration will in- crease the potential of nitrate contamination of ground water by leaching. Ecological Effects - Reduced runoff associated with this subtrend would result in minor beneficial effects to the aquatic system in 1985 and limited effects in 2010. The increased quality and productivity in vegetation would increase the species diversity with limited beneficial effects in 1985 and moderate effects in 2010 on the terrestrial ecosystems. No significant ef- fect on human health is anticipated from the potential leaching of nitrate to ground water because of improved infiltration rates on ranges. Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the effects of nutrient and sediment runoff under both specialized and continuous grazing systems. Complementary Forage Seedings (10.3) This subtrend involves the increasing use of restricted and seeded access plots with the objective of complementing the existing forage, usually before or after normal forages are available. Extensiveness. Currently this practice is largely in the experimental stage and is expected to have only limited application by 1985. By 2010, it will be in moderate use according to the Range and Pasture Panel (Phase I - Volume I). Environmental Factors - Productivity in both forage and beef is expected to be enhanced with the adoption of this grazing practice. The improvement in vegetation will result from less pressure on the range from potential 43 ------- overgrazing. This practice can be expected to have both short-term and long-term effects. In the short-term, increased runoff of sediment and nutrients can be expected during periods of renovation and seeding. How- ever, in the long-term, the improved vegetation will decrease the runoff. The overall impact is not expected to be significant. The potential for pollution of ground water will be increased. Ecological Effects - The overall ecological effect from this practice is not considered to be significant in the near future. By 2010, there may be minor detrimental effects on the terrestrial systems brought about by tame grasses in the seeded plots. The introduced grasses will reduce plant diversity. Research Needs - This practice is currently in the research stage. As it is developed, research should include environmental effects assessments. Controlled Livestock Grazing (10.4) This subtrend reflects an increasing use of stocking rates specifically designed to maintain or improve range conditions. This type of grazing is accomplished under the "proper use" concept. Extensiveness - In 1970, an estimated 85.7 million acres of range were under exploitive type management and being overgrazed. This amounted to approximately 10 percent of the range being grazed. The goal under the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resource Planning Act of 1974 is to reduce this to zero by 2000. Environmental Factors - The increasing use of proper stocking rates or con- trolled grazing is expected to increase the production and quality of forages on range. This improved vegetation will provide greater ground cover and reduce runoff. Higher infiltration rates can be expected to increase the potential for leaching and contamination of ground water. However, this potential is not considered significant. Soil conditions can be expected to be improved with less erosion and compaction and in- creased infiltration. Ecological Effects - Increasing use of controlled livestock grazing can be expected to have beneficial effects on both aquatic and terrestrial systems However, the effects are expected to be only minor by 1985. By 2010, the effects on the terrestrial system should be moderate as result of in- creased plant diversity. Research Needs - A need exists for research on the extent of nutrient and sediment runoff under controlled grazing. 44 ------- B. Silviculture Sector Trends Five (5)_trends and 16 subtrends, as shown in Exhibit II-3, were selected for detailed analysis within the silviculture sector. The rationale for selection of the trends, with the exception of the number 5 trend, was that each trend was rated as having relatively high environmental implications in the silviculture sector by the Phase I (Volume I) workshop. The number 5 trend was selected because one of its subtrends, clearcutting, has be- come a highly sensitive and controversial issue with the public. Trends and subtrends within silviculture have different levels of regional significance and these differences are noted within the discussion sections below. In particular, two of the top ranked subtrends, permanent road con- struction (1.1) and mechanical site preparation (2.2) are confined almost exclusively to certain regions, i.e., permanent road construction in the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast, and mechanical site preparation in the South. As with the agriculture trends, detailed analysis of silviculture trends- subtrends includes extensiveness of use, environmental factors, ecological effects, and research needs. However, ecological effects of silviculture trends were not determined in a formal workshop setting as were the eco- logical effects of agriculture trends. Since current literature deals with ecological assessments of different silviculture practices, much of the ecological assessment presented herein required only a detailed re- view of the literature. Additionally, however, a professional ecologist reviewed the ecological findings and added pertinent information where necessary. The present study of silviculture was largely confined to trends stimulated by technological developments in agriculture and silviculture. Further research should investigate the kinds that reflect national and international economic developments. Ecological effects were evaluated and rated in five areas for silviculture's subtrends-trends: aquatic life, terrestrial life, human health, recreational opportunity and aesthetics. The recreation and aesthetics effects of sil- vicultural activities are considered important because they, too, are a part of the composite ecosystem. 1. Access to Timber Resources (1) Four subtrends are included for detailed analysis in the access to timber resources trend: permanent road construction, project road construction, road maintenance, and road reconstruction. These subtrends are of par- ticular environmental importance in the Western region where terrain is often a limiting factor in road construction. Permanent Road Construction (1.1) Permanent roads will be constructed to gain access to yet untapped old virin qrowth forests, primarily in the West. Once built, these roads 45 ------- Exhibit II-3. Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in silviculture Trend Subtrend 1. Access to Timber Resource 2. Site Preparation 3. Log Extraction 4. Utilization 5. Cutting System 1.1 Permanent road construction 1.2 Road maintenance 1.3 Project road construction 1.4 Road reconstruction 2.1 Log extraction 2.2 Mechanical preparation 2.3 Burning prescription 2.4 Chemical treatment 2.5 Fertilizer treatment 2.6 Soil moisture control 3.1 Harvest unit layout 3.2 Equipment use and development 4.1 Extraction residue recovery 4.2 Minimum size and quality extension 4.3 Species use enlargement 5.1 Clearcutting 46 ------- will be used continually as collector and feeder roads for the dendritic network of logging spur roads around them. Extensiveness - In 1976, the total mileage of permanent forest access roads in the U.S. was not known. However, forest roads in the northwest regions of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and southeast Alaska totaled some 248,000 miles. Considerably fewer permanent forest roads exist in the Rocky Moun- tains and in the East. Additionally, the private silviculture industry has its own systems of permanent access roads which are not monitored by public agencies. New construction of permanent access roads is expected, for the most part, to relate directly to the timber sales policy of the National Forest Ser- vice (NFS). Current road construction, with the even-flow, non-declining policy of NFS, is about 6,200 miles per year with the completion of all per- manent roads scheduled before 2030. Yearly construction is expected to de- cline through 2010, as the need for permanent access roads diminishes. An estimated 80 percent of all NFS road construction and 100 percent of Bureau of Land Management (BLM) construction will occur in the West. In the East and South, road systems have long been established and construction of per- manent roads will be minor. Environmental Factors - As a result of NFS even-flow, non-declining produc- tion policies, construction of permanent roads is not expected to increase annual silviculture production. Should this policy change to meet infla- tion and the increasing demand for timber products, then the NFS road building program could be accelerated. This would result in road access to far more timber area and volume per year. Permanent roads will remove some commercial forest from production, but production losses will be rather insignificant. Road construction, depending importantly on regional location, results in soil loss, changes in water quality, water yield, and water flow patterns. The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency has established guidelines for minimizing the environmental impacts of road constructions. Those guide- lines include optimum road location for the type of terrain, lower stand- ards for road width and grade, and use of cuts and fills to minimize soil movement. Offsetting the beneficial effects of these practices will be the need to construct roads in areas previously left unlogged. These areas are most often increasingly steep with difficult terrain that does not lend it- self to road construction. Although soil losses are usually greater for road construction than for other silviculture practices, better planning and management of road construction in the future will produce less severe environmental impacts. Roads, once constructed and stabilized, should not result in further soil losses. Pesticide and nutrient loss will not be a factor in road construction. Cer- tain building materials (e.g., asphalt and oil) may be transported from the site via runoff and sediment to receiving surface waters. 47 ------- Ecological Effects - Construction of permanent roads (and other logging- related roads) will continue to have adverse aquatic and terrestrial ef- fects in 1985 and 2010. These effects are expected to decrease in inten- sity with better planning of road construction and with the decline in total annual road construction through 2010. Aquatic effects include turbidity, sediment loading, impediment of water flow, and with stream- side road construction, thermal pollution with the removal of forest can- opy. New edge areas will benefit wildlife, but roads may also disrupt normal wildlife travel lanes and will create a hazard to wildlife crossing such roads. Excessive sedimentation can be destructive of benthic organisms and their living strata, and can destroy trout and salmon spawning areas. Aesthetic impacts of permanent road construction can be minimized with careful road location with respect to visibility from other viewpoints. However, even with optimum road location, aesthetics will be adversely affected if the road is to virgin areas. Some recreational opportunities will increase with greater access to forests. However, wilderness exper- iences will be essentially eliminated with road construction into virgin areas. Human health should not be significantly affected with permanent road construction. Research Needs - More effective planning and management are the key to re- duction of the environmental impacts of road construction. Necessary plan- ning includes the development of improved standards. Consequently, re- search is needed to determine minimum road standards compatible with road use requirements in areas such as cuts, fills, bed width, and ballast. Road Maintenance (1.2) Generally, all permanent and project access roads require constant atten- tion to insure that logging traffic is not impeded and that drainage sys- tems are kept free of obstacles. Additionally, access roads currently not in use are periodically checked for damage. Extensiveness - Extensiveness of road maintenance on timber access roads is not known for 1976, but estimated to be limited. As more permanent and project roads are built, maintenance needs will increase and by 2010 use is expected to reach important levels. Environmental Factors - Road maintenance will not directly affect silvi- culture productivity. However, productivity will be indirectly affected if road maintenance is needed before a timber area can be reentered for har- vesting. Resource use patterns will not be changed with road maintenance practices. Road maintenance can potentially increase or decrease soil loss to surface water. Erosion problems will decrease with the increased use of road sur- facing, use of mulches or green cover on bared roadway soil, and clearance 48 ------- of drainage canals. Grading slopes back to the original slope condi- tions will often reduce erosion losses, also. However, grading of un- surfaced roads can cause increased soil loss temporarily. In general, maintenance of a road is considered preferable to no maintenance from the environmental viewpoint. Ecological Effects - Road maintenance can result in either minor beneficial or adverse aquatic effects depending upon the type of maintenance practice. With some practices, sediment loadings to surface water will temporarily be increased. Clearance of drainage systems and certain other practices will reduce the sediment load. Effects on the terrestrial ecosystem will be minimal. Proper drainage flow and surfacing of roads will reduce soil erosion losses. Aesthetic values will not be significantly affected by road maintenance. Recreational and wilderness opportunities will be increased to the extent that passages to recreational areas are open. Human health effects are not a significant factor with road maintenance. Research Needs - Research is needed in the development of equipment designed to minimize soil disturbance. Project Road Construction (1.3) Project roads are built solely to gain access to a certain area for har- vesting purposes. After harvesting, these roads are abandoned or retired with the idea that they can be reopened at a later date. Extensiveness - Extensiveness of project road construction in 1976 was esti- mated to be moderate and expected to increase slightly by 1985 with a de- crease back to a moderate level of use by 2010. The peak in 1985 will re- sult from expected increased harvesting activity on private and federal forests in the West, requiring the construction of access roads, either permanent or project. In general, each square mile (640 acres) of timber harvested requires about 5 miles of road access but this amount varies with the harvesting system and local forest conditions. Environmental Factors - As with permanent access roads, project roads will not directly affect annual timber production based on current NFS policies. Project roads will only provide access to resources so that harvesting can occur. Project road construction has the same environmental implications as per- manent road construction, primarily increasing soil loss. However, soil loss could be greater for project roads in that these roads may not be so carefully engineered as permanent roads. Additionally, project roads that are not surfaced will tend to have greater soil loss. Properly engineered project roads do have the potential to be reconverted to vegetative growth or even timber (although compaction will reduce soil quality in that road area). Thus, soil loss with project roads is often temporary, occurring only with harvesting activity and until the area is revegetated. 49 ------- Ecological Effects - Again project roads present the same ecological ef- fects as permanent roads, but with the potential for recovery with reveg- etation. The aquatic ecosystem will experience increased turbidity, sedi- ment loading, altered water-flow patterns, and occasionally thermal pollu- tion when roads are placed too close to streams. While soil erosion will be increased (often temporarily) and wildlife habitat and travel lanes disrupted, project roads will ultimately bene- fit some wildlife species. On road abandonment, a new succession of wild- life will enter the area as revegetation occurs. Increased edge will in- crease species diversity. Revegetation will provide more forage for elk and deer. As canopy and overstory close over the abandoned roads, these effects will diminish. Project roads are less in sight of traffic and temporary, so that their aesthetic effects will tend to be minimal. There will, however, be non- pleasing visual experiences with some project roads. Recreational opportunities, as hunting and wildlife viewing, will increase with project access roads. Again, wilderness experience will be diminished in many areas. Human health will not be significantly affected with pro- ject road construction. Research Needs - As in the case of permanent road construction, there is a need for research in development of minimum road standards for project access. Road Reconstruction (1.4) In some cutover forest areas, roads were constructed with no thought to future use. Many are poorly located on the terrain and inadequately con- structed and maintained. The roads must be partially or completely re- constructed for forest reentry. Extensiveness - Road reconstruction is currently estimated to be relatively minor, but expected to increase to moderate levels by 2010. All commercial forests will experience some type of road reconstruction. The USFS is ex- pected to reconstruct approximately 31,000 miles of roads per year. The number of access roads that will be reconstructed or reestablished on better routes in privately-owned forests is not known. Environmental Factors - Road reconstruction indirectly affects silviculture productivity in that these roads allow access to timber area for harvesting, Road reconstruction will result in soil loss, but loss should usually be less than that for permanent or project road constructions. However, if reconstruction follows an original road bed that was poorly located for the soil and slope conditions, significant soil loss will occur. Proper relocation of a poorly located road is usually preferable to allowing the original road to remain. 50 ------- Ecological Effects - Assuming care in layout and construction, road recon- struction will have an adverse, but temporary effect on the aquatic eco- system. Receiving waters will experience increased turbidity, sediment loading, and a potential reduction in species diversity in highly im- pacted areas. Terrestrial effects from road reconstruction will be similar to those re- sulting from permanent and project roads. However, wildlife disruptions may be less intense since the roads are already present and reconstruction will not involve virgin timber areas. Aesthetic values may not be particularly affected with road reconstruction. These roads are already present, and, therefore, any displeasing aesthetic impacts occurred with the original construction. Recreational opportunities will benefit in that access to timber areas is enlarged with road reconstruction. Human health effects are not significant with road reconstruction. Research Needs - No specific research needs were identified. However, the needs for research involving minimum road standards discussed previously would be applicable to this subtrend. 2. Site Preparation (2) Site preparation involves practices that treat the soil surface to encourage the desired type of forest regeneration growth. Usually new forest growth is reestablished as soon as possible after harvest in logged areas. Six subtrends are evaluated in this site preparation trend. Each subtrend will have regional importance since each forest type utilizes different prepar- ations for that particular forest growth. Log.Extraction (2.1) Log extraction methods are used for the establishment or regeneration of a timber species that requires a mineral soil environment for germinating and seedling stages. This method involves dragging logs across the ground, pushing aside the organic overlayer and brush, and baring soil for a seed bed. Extensiveness - In 1976, extensiveness of use was estimated to be moderate. By 1985 and through 2010, use should decline to limited levels, reflecting the anticipated replacement of natural regeneration with artificial regen- eration. All four forest regions have used log extraction methods to some extent, for the regeneration of conifers. However, this site preparation practice seems to be more common in the West after harvest of old growth forests. Site preparation will occur only once in every rotation of 30 to 100 years. 51 ------- Environmental Factors - With prompt site preparation and regeneration, productivity often increases. Resource use patterns are not expected to change with log extraction practices. Baring the soil with this practice will result in increased runoff, soil erosion and sediment loadings of receiving waters. The steepness of the terrain, type of soil, climatic conditions, and degree of soil disturbance will determine the severity of erosion and runoff losses. For example, scarifying red pine stands on the flat terrain of Minnesota will result in minimal soil movement, cable yarding on steep Western slopes will re- sult in significant soil loss. However, forest soils would only be sub- ject to these soil disturbances once during each 30 to 100 year rotation and then only until vegetation reappears to protect against soil movement. Currently the trend with log extraction practices is toward better manage- ment to minimize soil erosion and runoff losses. Ecological Effects - The effects of log extraction practices on the aquatic ecosystem will be relatively minor. Since bared soil tends to revegetate quickly, the opportunity for surface transport of materials to water is shortlived. Also, forest areas will only be subject to site preparation every 30 to 100 years. However, log extraction on certain soils and steep terrains could result in large enough sediment loadings so that for a period of time area aquatic life will suffer adverse effects. Plant and wildlife diversity may decrease in the terrestrial ecosystem. Log extraction practices prevent natural plant succession from reaching climax communities. Wildlife habitat, food supplies, and travel lanes are also destroyed with this practice. With revegetation of the forest area, the emerging ecological community may be quite different from the original community. Since the principal objective of site preparation with log extraction is to return the forest to production as quickly as possible after harvest, dis- pleasing aesthetic effects will be shortlived. Recreation opportunities will not be significantly affected. Creation of more edge area will tem- porarily shelter more wildlife for hunting and viewing. Human health ef- fects are not considered to be significant. Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the minimum amount of site preparation required in establishing regeneration. Also, research is needed to develop more efficient methods and less damaging alternatives to log extraction. Mechanical Preparation (2.2) Mechanical preparation involves the use of mechanical equipment having blades, rakes, gouges, chopping wheels, or other implements for vegetation destruction. The forest is reduced to bare ground to favor reproduction of pine primarily in the South. 52 ------- Extensiveness - The evaluation workshop (Phase I, Volume I) estimated this practice to be in moderate use in 1976, increasing to important use by 1985, and declining back to moderate levels by 2010. In the South, an estimated 29.6 million acres of timber stands, hardwood and pine hardwood, could be cleared and planted to faster growing, more desirable pine. Me- chanical site preparation will be used on much of the converted forest stands. However, a large part of these 29.6 million acres is owned by private non-industrial interests who are not necessarily interested in silviculture production from their lands. Thus, the actual acreage of hardwood forests available for pine conversion is not known. Environmental Factors - Intensive mechanical preparation in the South, for example, is considered to result in the most serious erosion problem that the Southern hill country experiences. The broadcast baring of soils, some of them already depleted from past agricultural use, may foster a dangerous cycle of topsoil and nutrient loss and increased sediment load- ings in streams. Compaction and sealing the macrospore structure of forest soils prevents proper water absorption and increases surface runoff. Use of lighter equipment and reducing soil disruptions will tend to reduce the environmental impacts of this practice. However, improvement will be com- plicated by the fragility of some of the depleted soils now supporting low grade forests. Ecological Effects - Aquatic ecosystems will experience increases in tur- bidity related pollution and in thermal pollution to a point where aquatic life may be endangered. Mechanical site preparation results in the conver- sion of a diverse ecosystem to a monoculture system. Wildlife numbers and diversity are lost with the destruction of habitat, food supplies, and travel lanes. Additionally, the land itself may suffer from losses of top- soil, nutrient cycles, and water holding capacity. Establishment of new vegetative cover will help control erosion, but local-regional terrestrial ecosystems will be permanently changed with conversion to monoculture forests. Aesthetic values will be adversely affected by this practice. After site preparation, these areas give the impression of agriculture land, with very few residues remaining on the ground. However, where mechanical site pre- paration has occurred, aesthetics do not seem to be affected to the point of public resistance to this practice. Elimination of diverse forests re- duces recreational potential, including hunting and wildlife viewing. For a period following site preparation, quail hunting will improve in some areas until the new forest closes in. Human health will not be affected with this practice. Research Needs - Research is needed to develop more efficient equipment used in mechanical preparation. Also, research to develop improved alternatives to mechanical preparation is desired. Burning Prescription (2.3) Prescribed and controlled burns can be used as site preparation practices on a less intense scale than log extraction or mechanical site prepara- tions. Prescribed burning reduces vegetative competition without the damaging soil disruption effects. 53 ------- Extensiveness - Annual needs for all prescribed burning total some 12.35 million acres, with 95 percent of these acres located in the South. How- ever, this practice is also used for disposal of logging residues, as well as site preparation. Thus, total acreages of prescribed burns for site preparation alone are not known, but estimated to be of moderate use in 1976. Use is expected to remain fairly constant (moderate) through 1985 to the end of the study period. Future air quality regulations could restrict the use of this practice in the South. Environmental Factors - Productivity of prescribed burn areas is enhanced by the elimination of overstory and the preparation of seed beds. Certain species, as jack pine, require fire to prepare their cones to drop seeds. Fire also releases nutrients to the soil which can lead to production in- creases in some areas. Under controlled conditions, fire should not disturb soil to the extent of causing surface runoff, sediment loadings, or thermal pollution in surface waters. Nutrients released by fire prescription may be leached away if not quickly taken up again. Thus, nitrates in the ground water could temporarily be increased. Ecological Effects - Ecological effects reflect the use of fire under con- trolled conditions only. Aquatic effects are very minor from controlled burns. Terrestrial ecosystems will be affected with the reduction of wild- life habitat, food supply, and cover areas. The season of the year and the wildlife species present will determine how severe terrestrial disruptions will be. In general, terrestrial life effects are considered to be less for prescribed burns than for mechanical site preparation and log extraction practices. Additionally, the nutrient cycle is temporarily accelerated, but should return to its norm without significant effects on the soil. Aesthetics will be affected, but should recover within a relatively short time. Recreational opportunities are increased to the extent that clear- ance of underbrush provides for easier access to wildlife in hunting. Human health will not be affected with current and projected use of prescribed burns. Burning vegetation does not release toxic substances or noxious fumes to the air. The amount of particulate matter from controlled burnings is also relatively low. Research Needs - There is a need for research in determining the time re- quired for soil biota to recover from prescribed and controlled burning. Since the recovery time will vary considerably between regions, study is required to identify these regional differences. Further, more research is needed to determine the optimal time (seasonally) to burn in order to minimize the ecological impacts. Chemical Treatment (2.4) Chemical treatment for site preparation involves the application jof herbi- cides to remove hardwood trees and/or brush weed species and to provide for replacement with more desirable species, often softwood. Herbicide 54 ------- applications may be followed by fire to remove dried vegetation. With brush removal only, fire is often not needed, and natural revegetation will replace the cover removed. Extensiveness - In 1976, the use of herbicides for site preparation was minor. By 2010, this practice is expected to increase slightly to limited levels. When herbicides are used, application rates are comparable to those used in agriculture, but application is once in a 30 to 100 year rotation. It is estimated that about 99 million acres may be treated with herbicides over time. Environmental Factors - Herbicide use for site preparation will enhance productivity and has certain advantages over site preparation methods that disrupt the soil surface. Soil loss will be much less for this practice and may be insignificant in most areas. Water flow will be tempoarily increased until revegetation occurs. Herbicide levels in receiving waters may be increased with surface runoff and aerial drift during application. While herbicide application in a given area will usually occur, only once during a 30 to 100 year rotation and have minimal impacts over time, careless application (directly spraying over water or aerial application on a windy day) could potentially result in significant pollution levels in water. Streamside buffer zones and careful application methods are expected to minimize herbicides entering surface waters, however. Ecological Effects - With careful application, herbicide use for site prep- aration is not expected to have significant aquatic effects. Terrestrial ecosystems are affected adversely with herbicide use. All vegetation is removed, thus destroying wildlife habitat, food supplies, and cover plus reducing species diversity. Plant and animal successions may be abruptly changed with this practice. Clearance of underbrush will make for easier access for certain recreational opportunities, e.g., improved hunting, easier hiking. Aesthetic impacts will be adverse with the destruction of vegetation. Human health effects will be insignificant with careful application. Potential human health dangers do exist with direct contact with certain herbicides during appli- cation. Research Needs - Further research is needed in identifying the effects of herbicide in the environment as a result of chemical treatment. This re- search is expected to bring into focus the reaction of the soil biomass to chemicals and the impacts of volatization of chemicals in the atmosphere. Fertilizer Treatment (2.5) Fertilizer treatment is required for site preparation in forest areas that require nutrient supplement for successful establishment of desired species. 55 ------- Extensiveness - Fertilizer treatment of forest land is used primarily in the South, where moist, phosphate deficient soils need nutrient supple- ment for the growth of loblolly pine. Currently the use of fertilizer in all forest areas is minor, however. By 1985 and through 2010, use is expected to increase only to limited levels. The expected increase in the South's use of fertilizer will occur with the increased conversion of poorly drained lands (wetland areas) to forest areas. Some 2.0 million acres of land will have been drained by 1977 with many areas requiring phosphate supplements of 50-100 Ib/acre. Environmental Factors - Productivity of an area will be increased with fer- tilizer application, especially when drainage plus phosphate addition cre- ates a pine forest out of an area previously unable to support forest growth. Fertilizer use will be increased from a zero base to high levels of appli- cation. Phosphate requirements are expected to be 50-100 Ib/acre and phos- phate levels in nearby surface water may increase with fertilizer treatment. However, no other pollutant changes will result. Ecological Effects - The ecological effects assessment reflects only the use of fertilizer treatment for site preparation (ecological effects of land drainage are presented below in the soil moisture control subtrend). High levels of phosphate application could potentially cause eutrophica- tion in the aquatic ecosystem. Species diversity and water quality will be adversely affected in aquatic systems. Terrestrial effects (from ferti- lizer application alone) will not be significant. Human health effects are not expected to result from fertilizer application, although phosphate loads may affect the potability of water. Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the environmental effects of phosphate applied to forest lands, primarily in relation to the aquatic system. The effects of other nutrients, if applicable, should also be assessed. Soil Moisture Control (2.6) Soil moisture control refers herein to the drainage of wetlands in the South for the successful establishment of desired forest species, usually loblolly pine. Extensiveness - Extensiveness of soil moisture control is expected to be limited and remain fairly stable between 1976 and 1985. By 2010, use should decline to minor levels. The total amount of wetland available for conver- sion is not known, but is probably not less than 5 million acres. Environmental Factors - Silviculture productivity will increase with the drainage of wetlands and the establishment of loblolly pine forests. Fer- tilizer use is expected to increase from a zero base to relatively high application rates, e.g., 50-100 Ib/acre of phosphates. 56 ------- Drainage will result in water movement from stagnant areas, but the move- ment is expected to be too slow to result in significant sediment trans- port. Surface water may become charged with phosphates, but the levels have not been determined. Ecological Effects - Soil moisture control is expected to have major aquatic and terrestrial effects. Drainage of wet lands will affect water table levels. This practice may result in a complete change from an aquatic ecosystem to a terrestrial ecosystem. Many wetlands provide habitat that is critical for the existence of wildlife species, especially waterfowl using wetlands for wintering areas. Plant species and the ecological community existing in the moist environment will be replaced with the limited diversity of pine forests. Recreational opportunities for waterfowl hunting and wildlife viewing will be diminished with drainage of wetlands. Aesthetics will be adversely af- fected since drainage of wetlands represents an irreversible change in the type of visual experience available to man. Human health is not expected to be affected by actual drainage of wetlands except that insect popula- tions may be reduced in stagnant areas. Research Needs - There is a need for research involving the long term ef- fects of extensive drainage and phosphate loadings associated with site preparation in the wetlands of the Southeast. Ecosystem changes may be ir- reversible and long-term species diversity effects should be assessed. 3. Log Extraction (3) Log extraction is the process employed to bring useable portions of a tree to the point of loading for transport. Methods and equipment used in log extraction vary with regional difference in timber size, species harvested, terrain, and other physical aspects. Closely tied to log extraction is the cutting system (5) trend which considers the extent and type of timber to be removed. Log extraction methods and equipment will largely be determined by the type of cutting system. Harvest Unit Layout-Intensity of Effort (3.1) This practice is particularly important in the harvest of old growth forests in the West where silviculture methods generally favor conversion from un- even aged old growth to even aged regeneration. Planning has always been an important phase of extraction, but generally oriented toward the lowest cost. This practice has increased the intensity of effort to balance cost savings against environmental cost. Planning trends are toward better control of size and shape of harvest units, proper location of cutting units, use of vegetation to hide cuts from conspicuous view, and mixing of clearcut and selective cut systems to achieve minimal environmental impacts. Extensiveness - Planning of harvest unit layouts is expected to become in- creasingly important in old growth forests of the West. Extensiveness was 57 ------- estimated to be moderate in 1976, and will be important in 1985 and 2010. Since much of the remaining old growth forests are in federal ownership, institutional authority exists to achieve controlled planning of harvesting. Environmental Factors - Productivity is not likely to be significantly changed with careful harvest planning. Timber may be removed from a given cutting block at a slower rate with planning and thus, decreases productivity somewhat. However, planning may also increase log utiliza- tion and increase productivity. Surface runoff and soil loss will be reduced with careful harvest planning, but losses may still be significant in some areas. Streamside buffer zones may also be used in the harvesting to reduce sediment transport, although such management zones are primarily used to provide stream shade and pro- tect the water temperature. Nutrient levels will increase in the soil with timber residues remaining, and these nutrients are potentially available for leaching. Ecological Effects - Harvesting will result in adverse ecological effects, but the effects are expected to be less intense with better harvesting plans. Soil losses will be reduced but receiving waters will still exper- ience increased sediment and turbidity. These effects will occur but once during each harvesting period, and then only until revegetation appears. Wildlife habitat will still be destroyed, but intensive harvest planning will reduce the adverse impacts. The ecological community will be less diverse and less stable in even-aged forests compared to old growth forests. Recreational opportunities are expected to decrease with this practice. Ad- verse aesthetic effects will be minimized with careful planning, but har- vesting is still expected to result in some displeasing visual views. Human health will not be significantly affected by this subtrend. Research Needs - Long-term environmental impacts resulting from trends in harvest unit layout-intensity of effort need to be determined. Equipment Use and Development (3.2) Until recently, log extraction methods used machinery adapted from other uses. Now the trend is toward machinery designed specifically for timber harvesting needs with consideration for timber size, species harvested, and terrain. Fewer innovative changes will be made with machinery for harvest of old growth forests in the West. In the South, however, equip- ment is being developed to thin young stand and to harvest pulpwood and smaller saw timber. Older manual operations will give way to fully mech- anized methods. Extensiveness - The increase in roundwood production projected to 2010 will increase the need for far more equipment, especially in the North and South, possibly double what was in use in 1976. In the West, equipment needs are expected to remain fairly stable, since production will decline slightly here. Extensiveness of equipment use and development is moderate in 1976 and expected to increase to major levels by 2010. 58 ------- Environmental Factors - Productivity is expected to increase significantly with new equipment developments. Tree pulling equipment can recover 20 to ^b percent of the tree volume that otherwise stays in the ground. Soil compaction is less with newer equipment designs, so regeneration of a cut area will be enhanced. Many of the new equipment designs are effective in reducing soil disrup- tions and consequent soil loss and water damages on steep and fragile slopes. However, it should be emphasized that equipment changes will re- duce, but not prevent problems of surface runoff, sediment losses, and water quality degradation. Ecological Effects - Development of new equipment and its use will reduce the adverse ecological effects of harvesting. Sediment and resulting turbidity will be reduced in the aquatic systems. Soil compaction and erosion will be reduced and benefit the terrestrial ecosystems. Recreational opportunities and aesthetics will not be significantly af- fected by this subtrend. Human health is not a factor with equipment use and development. Research Needs - Research to design new equipment to meet the specific needs of each of the regions is needed. Logging equipment needs to be developed which will decrease soil disturbance, detachment and transport. Research efforts should be focused on the requirements in the North and South be- cause of the significant increases in production expected. 4. Utilization (4) Silviculture productivity can be increased by utilizing the total forest biomass. More fiber is harvested per unit of area through extraction resi- due recovery, minimum size and quality extension, and species use enlarge- ment practices. Extraction Residue Recovery (4.1) With extraction residue recover, greater use is made of the total fiber in each harvested tree. While only large sound logs used to be merchantible in the past, smaller logs and logs with defects are now being marketed. Extensiveness - About one half of the nation's logging residues are gener- ated in Pacific Coast forests, 22 million tons of logging residues each year. Logging residues will vary with forest ownership and type of sales method. On industrial owned forest land, average residue volume is 1,330 ft3/acre. On national forest land, average residue volume is 3,130 ft3/ acre. The primary reason for greater utilization on private industrial owned land is the type of sales program. Lump sum sales programs, com- pared to the NFS scaled volume sales program, results in greater utiliza- tion of logging residues. 59 ------- Between 1968 and 1972, recovery of utility logs more than doubled, in- creasing from 177 million ft3 to 480 million ft3. During the same period, roundwood chip production increased from 75.5 thousand tons to 2049 thou- sand tons. Even with the increased use of logging residues in the past ten years, the potential exists for further increased residue recovery. At the national level, 80 percent of pulp mill requirements are supplied by roundwood, and only 20 percent by residues. In the fuel using sector of industry in the Pacific Northwest, 15 percent of fuel requirements are from mill residues, the remaining 85 percent comes from fossil fuels. Currently, it is not economically feasible to transport and market some forest residues at existing process locations on the Pacific Coast area. In the NFS, residue material is being yarded to concentration points (YUM program) where it is decked for future use or for burning. The evaluation workshop (Phase I, Volume I) estimated extraction residue recovery to have moderate levels of use in 1976 and 1985. By 2010, use will decline to minor levels, primarily due to more efficient harvesting tech- niques and the replacement of old growth forests with young even-age tim- ber in the West. Environmental Factors - Recovery of marketable forest residues will in- crease total annual silviculture production. Other forest residues are not marketable and are collected for burning purposes only. The environmental impacts of increasing utilization of the forest biomass will be beneficial up to a point. Partial removal of forest residues re- duces fire hazards, provides barriers against surface runoff and soil loss, and provides protection for the regenerating forest. Additionally, par- tial removal of residues will reduce the need for controlled burns that might otherwise be used. Removing all residues from a harvest sight, how- ever, will increase the potential for surface runoff, soil loss and nu- trient loss. Ecological Effects - Moderate levels of utilization are expected to have beneficial aquatic effects. In the aquatic ecosystem, less debris will enter streams, resulting in improved aquatic habitat. In the terrestrial ecosystem, wildlife habitat and species diversity do not specifically de- pend upon the presence or absence of logging residues, except for certain cavity dwelling species. The USFS now observes a policy of leaving a cer- tain number of dead trees standing for these animals. Complete residue removal would eliminate edge area and, consequently, reduce species numbers and diversity. In the West, aesthetics will be enhanced by partial removal of logging residues. Logged sites will have a more orderly appearance. Total utili- zation would further enhance aesthetic values, but provides for the possi- bility of other environmental injury. 60 ------- Complete utilization is expected to have a minor effect on recreational opportunities, by allowing for easier travel through cutover areas. Human health will not be significantly affected with residue recovery practices. Research Needs - With an expected increase in the extraction residue re- covery, research needs have been identified involving both the extent of utilization and the expected environmental effects. Consequently, future research should address the level of utilization of biomass considered op- timal and evaluate the ecological effects of alternatives in level of util- ization. Minimum Size and Quality Extension (4.2) Increased utilization of forest fiber can also be accomplished by using the smaller trees removed during thinning practices for stocking control, using smaller top diameters, and using the whole tree, including roots. Extensiveness - Use of minimum size and quality extension practices is especially applicable to the South's pine forest and to a lesser degree, in the North's forest systems. In the West, use is less significant be- cause emphasis is primarily on old growth liquidations. Industry that de- pends strongly on roundwood fiber favors the utilization of smaller ma- terials. Extensiveness of this practice, minimum size and quality exten- sion, was estimated to be moderate in 1976 and expected to increase to important levels by 1985 and major levels by 2010. Environmental Factors - In terms of wood fiber, silviculture_productivity increases significantly with minimum size and quality extension utiliza- tion. Not all forest species can be managed for minimum size, but at least one third of all southern pine may be managed for this. Removal of the entire tree biomass results in complete soil baring and in- creased soil disturbances. Significant soil erosion losses and sediment loading of receiving waters are expected in some forest areas, especially in the hilly country of the South. Nutrients will be irretrievably lost in the nutrient cycle with whole tree utilization. Some soils will require replacement of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium before successful regen- eration can occur. Ecological Effect - Complete utilization will have adverse aquatic and terrestrial effects. Turbidity increases and the potential for thermal pollution also increases. Terrestrial systems will have decreased diver- sity in both vegetation and wildlife species. Soil nutrient cycles may be severely disrupted in some areas due to extensive material removal. Aquatic and terrestrial effects will be limited to those regions using this practice, primarily the South. Aesthetics are not expected to play an important role with this practice because this practice is important specifically, in the South where little 61 ------- forest land is held in public ownership. Recreation potential will be de- creased since there will be minimal natural cover on the land. This prac- tice is not expected to have significant human health effects. Research Needs - Needs have been identified for research designed to determine kinds, volumes, and sizes of material to be left on site to aid in decreasing the pollution effects of extraction. Species Use Enlargement (4.3) Forest utilization is expanded under this practice to include tree species once considered non-commercial, specifically hardwood species. Techno- logical developments have largely been responsible for the use of a broader range of species. Extensiveness - Species use enlargement will be most applicable in the North and South forest regions, where many hardwood species exist. Ap- plication in the West will be limited since much of that forest land is in desirable softwoods. By 2010, the U.S. will be consuming an estimated 12.2 billion ft3 of pulp wood compared to 4.4 billion ft3 in 1970. Hardwoods will supply 37 per- cent of this volume, an increase from 28 percent in 1970. To achieve this production level by 2010, it will be necessary not only to increase har- vest of desirable species, but also to use a broader range of species for harvest. Since hardwood species tend to be small, poor in form and do not have the desired seasoning characteristics or dimensional stability, their use for lumber and plywood is not expected to greatly increase. Environmental Factors - Annual silviculture productivity will increase sig- nificantly with the harvest of a broader range of tree species. Addi- tionally, marketing of species that might otherwise be disposed of by mechanical or chemical means tends to reduce cost for stand improvement and forest conversion. The type of harvest and logging methods used will determine the extent of soil disturbance and consequent soil loss. As with other utilization prac- tices, total removal of all forest fiber bares the soil and increases the potential for surface runoff and soil losses. Soil nutrient cycles will also be disrupted with whole tree utilization. Other harvesting practices will allow residues to remain, and the resulting soil loss is expected to be less than for complete utilization. Ecological Effects - Ecological effects of species use enlargement will largely depend upon the harvest and logging practices used. Aquatic eco- systems may experience increased turbidity and possible thermal pollution with intense utilization of forest fiber. Complete tree removal including roots results in loss of water retention capacities by the soil. Less in- tense harvest and utilization practices will cause less soil disturbance and reduce the potential for adverse aquatic effects. 62 ------- The terrestrial ecosystem may experience loss of wildlife habitat and de- creased species diversity with the elimination or reduction of a tree spec- ies Recreational opportunities will be adversely affected if complete utilization of all tree species becomes a common practice. Aesthetic values are expected to also be adversely affected with this practice due to reduc- tions in wooded vegetation. Human health is not expected to be affected. Research Needs - As discussed above, there is a need to determine the pollution effects of alternative levels of utilization and ecological ef- fects. 5. Cutting System (5) Cutting systems employ two basic management practices for forest harvest: even-aged management and uneven-aged management. Even-aged cutting prac- tices are clearcutting, shelterwood cutting and seed tree cutting. These three cutting systems allow for the removal of mature tree stands and the establishment of new stands, all of a single age class. Single tree and group cutting are uneven-age management practices. This type of manage- ment produces stands in which trees of various ages are intermingled. While the cutting system trend was ranked ninth (out of 10 silviculture trends) for environmental implications by the Phase I evaluation work- shop, one subtrend, clearcutting, has become a sensitive and controversial issue with the public. Thus, clearcutting has been included for detailed analysis in this Phase II study. Other cutting system subtrends are ex- cluded from this assessment. Clearcutting (5.1) Clearcutting is an even-aged forest reproduction practice in which all trees are removed in the harvest area. This area may then be regener- ated by residual reproduction or by natural or artificial methods after cutting. Extensiveness - Actual extensiveness of clearcutting in 1976 is not known, but estimated to be at important levels. In the Douglas fir region, 39,500 acres of old forest growth is harvested by clearcutting. In the South, clearcutting is expected to increase as a result of shortened rotation periods, 15 years for some species. By 2010, extensiveness of clearcutting is expected to reach major levels. However, use of clearcutting may be restricted on some federal forest lands, and shelterwood cutting substi- tuted as an even-age management practice. Reducing clearcut area size and engineering the cut to conform to topo- graphic features and to be less visible from principal viewing points are expected to be future management practices with clearcutting. Environmental Factors - Clearcutting practices demonstrates high potential for maximizing fiber yield in a number of forest types, and provides the best opportunity for establishment of new stands. 63 ------- Clearcuts have been responsible for large pollutant loadings in the en- vironment. The potential still exists for significant adverse impacts, but precautionary measures can reduce these impacts. However, soil loss will still occur with large bared soil areas. On fragile soils and on steep terrain, indiscriminate use of clearcutting can cause mass wasting. Clearcutting can be used to control water yield in the Rocky Mountains with properly engineered path cuts that trap winter snows. This will cause in- creased spring runoffs. Water yields are temporarily increased between the time an area is cut and before vegetation is reestablished to take up moisture. Water temperature increases have also occurred with clearcuts. More cur- rent practices with clearcutting, leave the streams shaded to maintain temperature stability. Ecological Effects - Aquatic ecosystem may be adversely affected with in- creased turbidity and thermal pollution. With use of buffer zones and careful management, adverse aquatic effects will decrease in intensity and may be relatively insignificant in some cut areas. With clearcuts, wildlife habitat, food supplies and travel lanes are dis- rupted. Wildlife species that inhabited the uncut forest will be dis- placed; and, with revegetation, a wider diversity of ground and bush- dwelling species will appear. Deer populations are expected to increase significantly in some forest cut areas. Recreational opportunities are adversely affected immediately following clearcutting. After revegetation, hunting, wildlife viewing, and berry picking are enhanced. Aesthetics are also adversely affected with clearcutting and subsequent logging practices. Removal of harvest residues, careful clearcut site planning, and other management are expected to reduce aesthetic effects to some extent. Human health is not expected to be significantly affected with this practice. Research Needs - As indicated above, major disruptions can be expected in the terrestrial systems. Because of this, research is required not only on the short term effects but also on the long term effects of clearcutting. 64 ------- SECTION III RESEARCH NEEDS Throughout this study many types of data and information were identified and sought through secondary sources in order to complete the desired en- vironmental assessments. As was expected, the desired research data were often meager and seldom adequate to quantitatively analyze the environ- mental effects of a given trend or management practice in either agri- culture or silviculture. Consequently, and as incorporated in the study's plan of work, qualitative value judgments of agricultural, silvicultural, and environmental professionals were obtained and utilized. Future studies involving the environmental implications of agricultural-silviculture! acti- vities can be expected to face similar data and information constraints. As a guide to further data base development involving environmental re- search, this section outlines the most pressing needs that were identifiable throughout this study. It should be recognized that many on-going public and private research programs will contribute to these needs; however, the diverse conditions that exist throughout agriculture and silviculture are such that site specific experiments are difficult or impossible to general- ize about. Caution must be exercised, therefore, in assuming that research conducted in limited geographic areas will necessarily yield data on en- vironmental effects valid for other areas and conditions. Agricultural and silvicultural environmentally-related research needs, as viewed from the perspective of EPA's overall responsibility, might be cate- gorized into four research areas as follows: 1. Production Efficiency Research 2. Pollution Measurement Research 3. Pollution Reduction Research 4. Ecological Impact Research Production efficiency research would develop or assess the technology utilized to improve production yields and efficiency, including pollution-related im- pacts. Pollution measurement would determine the actual types and quanti- ties of pollution generated in various production processes. Pollution re- duction research would develop or assess alternative methods to reduce the generation of pollution. And, ecological impact research would quantify ecological and other environmental impacts. (A fifth area, extensiveness research, would determine the extent to which pollutant-generating resources, production practices, or developments are being utilized, but such research is generally considered outside of EPA's primary responsibility.) 65 ------- The following discussion of specific research needs is presented first for the agriculture sector and then for the silviculture sector. Also, within each sector, the research needs are identified according to the four research categories as defined above. These needs reflect the broad range of research that will be required to comprehensively assess the environmental implica- tions of trends in agriculture and silviculture. However, other and more' specific research needs can be readily perceived within the framework shown; thus, the research needs presented are intended principally as a guide in research planning. Various institutions, not just EPA, have either an ex- plicit or an implicit responsibility to foster research in the various desig- nated categories. Importantly, one should note that the research need categories are not mutually exclusive. Such matters as research into the environmental effects of varying tillage practices will, for instance, also involve research into their differing nutrient and pesticide requirements and their consequent environmental effects. When one recognizes the interrelationships that exist among all the agricultural subsector trend practices and their environ- mental effects, one recognizes, also, the conceptual impossibility of definitively ranking on the basis of need, all of the research possibilities identified in this study. Finally, the listing of research needs is not exhaustive. The study sought to identify those that offer promise; thus, in some instances, research needs were not identified in all need categories for all trend practices. A. Agriculture Sector Research Needs Based on this study's findings, the most needed environmentally-related re- search topics in agriculture are as summarized in Exhibit III-l below. These research needs are categorized by subsector/trend (see Exhibit rows) within agriculture and by the research categories (see Exhibit columns) as were defined above. The following discussion incorporates not only the trends as have been assessed in this Phase II document, but also selected additional trends from the Phase I (Volume I) analysis for which comparable research needs exist. Production Efficiency Research Needs Improved production efficiency is an indirect means of achieving environ- mental quality production and enhancement. That is, technological and other developments that increase agricultural production efficiency have often required lower rates of resource use, e.g., land or fertilizer, in order to meet specified yield goals. Hence, the environmental effects are favorable, especially in relative terms in the U.S., where substantially more pollutants would have been generated if production efficiency im- provements had not been realized. Such, for instance, is a frequent effect of the work of the U. S. Department of Agriculture. The Department, as is 66 ------- Exhibit III-l. Summary of agriculture sector research needs by trend and research category Page 1 Agriculture Subsector/Trend Production Efficiency Research Needs Pollution Measurement Research Needs Pollution Reduction Research Needs Ecological Impact Research Needs CROP PRODUCTION SUBSECTOR Soil and Water Manage- ment (Runoff and Erosion Control) (Conservation Tillage) (Wind Erosion Control) (Improved Water Application) (Improved Seeds and Plants) (Using Soil-Plant Analysis) Develop more efficient farm implements. Determine optimum use of fertilizers and pesticides with narrow rows. Develop alternatives to the use of toxic pesticides, e.g., paraquat. Determine optimum fertili- zer and pesticide use under no-till and reduced till practices. Determine the optimum amount of residue to be left on the soil under conservation tillage. Determine the feasibility of diverting return flows for other productive uses, e.g., wildlife preserves. Investigate the use of effluents in sprinkler irrigation. Improve irrigation systems and scheduling. Develop more resistant seeds and plants to in- clude weather, salt, in- sect, and neamtode. Develop seeds and plants to increase crop yields. Develop more efficient techniques in soil plant analysis to enhance pro- ductivity. Determine losses from con- trol measures under vary- ing conditions; e.g., soil and application rates. Determine pesticide losses under reduced tillage. Determine wind erosion losses under strip-crop- ping barrier rows and free wind breaks. Determine quality of re- turn flows under varying conditions. Determine effectiveness of contouring and other soil erosion measures. Investigate the feasibil- ity of producing additional crops In narrow rows. Determine effectlvenebi of alternative reduced tillage methods in reducing pollu- tant losses, e.g., nutri- ents, pesticides, sediment. Develop more efficient systemsin wind erosion control. Determine the feasibility of water renovation through filtering and desalting. Determine practicable al- ternatives for treatment and disposal of tall water. Develop seeds and plants resistant to pests re- quiring chemical treat- ment. Determine the effects of pesticides on human health. Determine the optimum main- tenance management of ter- races and grass waterways for wildlife habitat. Determine ecological effects of Increased pesticide use under conservation tillage. Determine effects of salinity on human health and animal populations. Determine effects of Irriga- tion practices on ground water depletion. Include environmental assessments as a part of research undertaken in seeds ana plants improve- ment. Evaluate ecological effects associated with the use of soil-plant analysis. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit. III-l (Continued) Page 2 Agriculture Subsector/Trend Production Efficiency Research Needs Pollution Measurement Re;earch Needs Pollution Reduction Research Needs Ecological Impact Research Needs en CD CROP PRODUCTION SUB- SECTOR (Con'd) Nutrient Manage- ment (Methods of Nutrient Applica- tion) (Development of Im- proved Fertilizers) (Development of Nitrogen-Fixation Sources) Pesticide Manage- ment (Pesticide Application Methods) (Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides) (Scouting and In- tegrated Controls) Develop more effective methods of nutrient application. Develop more efficient fertilizers. Develop sources, both legumes and non-1egumest for biological nitrogen- fixation. Develop more efficient means of pesticide appli- cation including aerial application and dual application of fertili- zers and pesticides. Develop more effective chemical and biological pesticides. Develop the effective use of pred'.tors and para- sites for biological pest control. Develop more effective In- tegrated control systems. Develop effective surface and remote sensing scouting programs to enhance pro- duction. Compare nutrient losses under varying methods of application. Determine extent of ni- trate leaching from nitrogen-fixation sources. Determine extent of pes- ticide loss In aerial application. Develop fertilizers designed to reduce pollution effect, e.g., micro-encapsulation. Develop means of reducing drift In aerial applica- tion. Develop biodegradable pesticides. Develop Integrated control systems designed to reduce chemical use. Determine environmental Im- plication of developments in application techniques as they are developed. Determine long term effects of leaching of other ions with nitrogen and movement of Ions down into the soil profile. Determine regional implica- tions of fall application. Assess differences 1n eco- logical effects of alter- native methods of pesticide application. Determine ecological effects of newly developed pes- ticides, including effects of agents on non-target organisms and their effects after the prey has been eradicated. Include ecological assess- ments as part of ongoing research Involving Integrated system. Continued . . . ------- ExhlMt III-l (Continued) Page 3 Agriculture Subsector/Trend Production Efficiency Research Needs Pollution Measurement itesearch Needs Pollution Reduction Research Needs Ecological Impact Research Needs CTi FEEDLOT PRODUCTION SUBSECTOR' Residual Disposal Management Improving Feed Efficiency RANGE AND PASTURE MANAGEMENT SUB- SECTOR Grazing Management Increase Forage Quality and Quantity Range and Pasture Renovation Determine economic feas- ibility of utilizing feed- lot waste in crop pro- duction. Assess the efficiency and feasibility of recycling wastes in feeding rations. Develop means of .enhancing1 the nutritive value of roughage and other fiber content of feed. Develop more effective means of utilizing non- conventional feedstuff and animal wastes in feeding. Develop more effective grazing systems utilizing innovations such as com- plementary forage seedlngs. Develop means of increas- ing the quality and quantity of forage. Develop more efficient renovation systems. Determine nutrient losses resulting from application of manure at disposal rates. Determine nutrient losses from newly developed feed rations. Evaluate ration rotation as a means of reducing the potential build-up of copper, arsenic, and sodium derived from feed rations. Determine nutrient and sediment losses under the various specialized systems. Determine pollution effects of newly developed renova- tion systems. Determine effects of high sodium content In rations on soil defloculation. Determine long term effects of nitrates and other nu- trients 1n groundwater. Determine ecological effects of complementary forage seedings. Determine ecological effects of Introducing new species into ranges. Determine long term ecolog- ical effects of the various renovation systems(chemical, mechanical, and prescribed burning). ------- generally recognized, is a principal source of production efficiency im- provements for agriculture, and a consequence of those improvements is often improved environmental effects. Too, agribusiness conducts much independent research and, consequently, fosters environmental beneficial production efficiency improvements. Even though production efficiency improvements generally have only indirect environmental implications and may not, therefore, be of primary concern to EPA, the future environment of the nation will be strongly influenced by such improvements. As a minimum within a comprehensive research frame- work, the monitoring of emerging and prospective production efficiency improvements is a vital research task. Crop Production - Soil and Hater Management. As is first shown under the production efficiency research needs column in Exhibit III-l, several re- search topics are classified primarily as soil and water management related. For example, the use of narrow rows, an increasing trend practice, is be- lieved beneficial in stabilizing the soil, and, in many cases, this practice improves production efficiency per unit of land cultivated without corre- sponding increases in fertilizer use. Thus, either the same output may be produced with less environmental pollution, or more likely, greater output can be obtained without a significant change in associated environmental ef- fects. The production efficiency aspects of the subtrend need to be more fully assessed. More specific research is required in the determination of the optimal rates of application of pesticides and fertilizers. Also, the adaptibility of narrow rows in the production of crops other than corn and soybeans needs to be more fully investigated. Within the crop production subsector, improved water applications result in production efficiencies which should be fostered not only because of ef- ficiency gains, but because of their favorable environmental implications. Improved methods of water application, improved scheduling procedures, and the use of new sources of water, e.g., waste water effluent, are specific areas needing research. In the past, much research has been focused on the development of higher yielding crop seeds and plants. While this research should be continued, increased genetic research is also warranted to improve the resistance of plants to factors such as weather, insects and diseases. Such developments will potentially reduce future potential pesticide pollution problems. Crop Production - Nutrient Management. Further research related to nutrient management will likely result in production efficiency improvements and an aggregate beneficial environmental effect. In particular, developments can be expected involving the form in which fertilizer is applied, the timing and frequency of application, and the type of applications used. In the past, fertilizer technology has contributed significantly to the increasing crop yields experienced in U.S. agriculture. The rising costs in fertilizer production have brought into focus the necessity for continued research in this area. Specifically, research needs to be undertaken to develop more efficient means of application and more effective forms, such as micro- encapsulation. Closely related to the needs involving timing and frequency 70 ------- of application is the need for the development of more effective means of conducting soil-plant analysis. Only a minor portion of the total crop acreage is currently covered by soil-piant analysis. Improved techniques, plus a greater emphasis on implementation of such techniques by the research and agribusiness community, would stimulate the needed expansion in the ac- reage covered. Crop Production - Pesticide Management. Pest management technology has been one of the major determinants of the high productivity of U.S. agriculture with toxic chemicals providing the basis for contemporary practices. Public concern about these chemicals has led to more stringent regulations and, in some cases, a prohibition of specific chemicals. These restrictions have re- sulted in a greater reliance on certain compounds and, also, the substitution of less effective alternatives. Consequently, the need for additional re- search is readily apparent. The breadth of recent and ongoing research is reflected in the subtrends reviewed in this study. Emerging chemical develop- ments include microencapsulated systems, surfactants and biodegradable pesti- cides. In the biological field, the subtrends covered developments in juve- nile hormones, pheromones, sterile males, and predators. Although consider- able progress has been made in such research, most of these remain largely in the experimental stage with recognized research requirements. The use of predators and parasites in biological pest control shows a great deal of promise; however, additional research is needed before these controls can be used on a large scale. Research is needed to identify and develop other biological and chemical agents which will provide more effective control of pests. Furthermore, increased research is needed to develop integrated pest management controls, i.e., chemical, biological and mechanical combinations to meet specific pest problems. Too frequently pesticides have been applied as a matter of prevention of potential threats, thus contributing to a high level of use. More efficient use depends on identification of real threats. Consequently, research needs to be accelerated in the area of sensing in order to develop effective sur- face and remote-sensing scouting programs for the detection of pest problems. Pest management research is needed in conjunction with other crop management trends, namely, trends in reduced till and no-till practices which are ex- pected to be utilized substantially more in the future. Because of improved water conservation and reduced runoff and erosion, increased production ef- ficiency has occurred. On the negative side, however, greater weed and in- sect problems generally occur; thus, greater chemical pesticide use and its consequent potential pesticide residue problems are common. This particular trend should be monitored for its production efficiency implications, and it should be more carefully researched in terms of its direct pesticide use implications. Feedlot Production. Production efficiency improvements in livestock feeding have both direct and indirect environmental benefits. First, on a per pound of gain basis, less direct wastes are generated, i.e., a higher percentage of the feeding ration is converted to useable end products. Second, because less grain and roughage are needed to finish feedlot livestock to a speci- fied grade, less feed need be produced to obtain a given total yield; thus, 71 ------- an indirect and favorable relative environmental effect will result. Over time, feeding efficiency improvements, e.g., in the order of 15 to 20% per pound of gain, could have a significantly large macro-level effect on the nation's environment. Hence, additional research to further enhance feeding efficiency improvements is warranted. Pollution Measurement Research Needs An initial step in the assessment of the environmental implications of agri- cultural trends was the identification of major pollutants generated by various practices and developments. As pointed out above, the research data required for an effective quantitative analysis was, in most cases, inade- quate. Although extensive research has been done in the identification and measurement of pollution from non-point sources, it has generally been oriented towards specific pollutants under controlled run-off conditions. Thus, be- cause the pollution effects caused by specific practices have not been docu- mented to the extent that realistic future projections of effects can be made, the environmental impacts of expected changes in practices cannot be ac- curately determined on a quantitative basis. However, models have been and are being developed with the objective of simulating pollution levels in water basins under varying production- related conditions. Most often, such models seek to estimate pollutant load changes into streams as a function of management practices. Also, some models seek to estimate instream water quality conditions given alter- native management practices. These models have usually been inadequately developed to complete either regional or national assessments, and further pollution measurement research of this type is needed to obtain useful esti- mates of the levels of non-point sources of pollution. Additionally, the simulation models should be developed to incorporate and, yet, distinguish each of the subsectors of agriculture so that the relative environmental significance of each can be more accurately determined and assessed. Crop Production - Soil and Water Management. Trends in soil and water manage- ment practices indicate that significant environmental effects will likely occur. For example, substantial increases in no-till and reduced-till cul- ture practices are expected. Such practices, predicted to reduce runoff will, also, increase pesticide use to control weeds, insects and diseases. Improved pollution measurement research is, then, needed to determine the nutrient and chemical losses for alternative tillage practices and soil conditions. The net environmental effects of reduced-tillage practices were judged to be beneficial by this study's workshop, yet improved pollu- tion measurement is needed to verify this judgement. Within major irrigated crop production regions, a major and growing problem is the increasing salinity of irrigation return flows. Better measurements of the existing pollution effects of these return flows are needed, and, perhaps more critically, the future environmental effects of high salinity return flows should be predicted as a guide to the severity of their future potential effects. 72 ------- Crop Production - Nutrient Management. In nutrient management, numerous de- velopments in application methods and fertilizer formulations have occurred in the past and are expected to continue in the future. Measurement tech- niques need to be designed to measure the nutrient losses expected from each of these developments. This would facilitate the identification of feasible alternatives for use in pollution control. Range and Pasture Management and Feedlot Production. Numerous studies have been conducted regarding pollution associated with the range and pasture management and the feedlot production subsectors. However, there is an inadequate quantitative basis on which estimates of this pollution can be made for the various practices and variety of conditions. Consequently, the need for improved pollution measurement is apparent in these two subsectors. Pollution Reduction Research Needs A major step in this study's assessment of trends was its identification of current and potential practices which impinge upon environmental concerns. One of the objectives of this step was to assist EPA in its efforts to identify feasible technologies for the prevention and control of adverse environmental effects. In this study, many of the trends assessed were found to have both a pollution reduction effect and an improved production efficiency effect (i.e., runoff and erosion control practices, conservation tillage, and improved nutrient application). Continued research to develop similar dual-benefit practices is desired. In the future, however, stringent pollution reduction practices may be required without associated production efficiency benefits. Such practices, although not among the leading trends assessed, should be realistically included in research programs. Crop Production - Soil and Water Management. Soil management practices such as contouring, narrow-row cropping, and reduced-till or no-till cultural practices for varied crops should be researched to indicate their potential and relative levels of nutrient, chemical, and sediment run-off and subse- quent environmental effects. Research needs are important, also, in water management. Practicable alternatives for the treatment and disposal of irrigation return-flow, water need to be identified. With the increasingly apparent potential for the depletion of ground water in the West, research is needed to measure the impact of irrigation on depletion levels and to assess the beneficial effects on water renovation of filtering and de- salting techniques. Crop Production - Nutrient Management. Of principal consideration in nutrient management trend effects should be extended research into the feasibility of developing fertilizers that are designed to reduce pollu- tion effects. More attention should be given to developing the qualita- tive (vs. quantitative) attributes of nutrients as their aggregate environ- mental effects become more serious. Crop Production - Pesticide Management. Leading research needs directed toward the reduction of pesticide pollution include efforts to improve 73 ------- aerial application techniques and formlations "non-drift" to develop biodegradable pesticides, and to design integrated control systems to reduce chemical use. Feedlot Production - Residual Disposal Management. Research should be directed toward reducing the concentrations of copper, arsenic, and sodium stemming from feedlot rations since the use of feedlot manure in land ap- plications results in the environmentally adverse runoff of such chemicals. Ecological Impact Research Needs Ideally, agriculture's ecological impacts should be assessed holistically with detailed quantitative estimates made regarding such receptor charac- teristics as assimilative capacities, organisms present, and end-uses. The lack of data and understanding of the relationships among agricultural practices precludes such a quantitative evaluation; consequently, this study's assessment was based largely on professional judgements focusing on each individual trend. While the ultimate ecological impact of the agricultural production system is the result of the effects of the accumu- lation of practices, many of the trends can be examined relatively inde- pendent of other practices. Crop Production - Soil and Water Management. A number of research needs were identified in soil and water management. The most apparent involve the determination of the ecological effects of the increased pesticide use attendant upon the expanding utilization of no-till and reduced tillage. While run-off nutrient loss will be significantly reduced under these prac- tices, pesticide use is expected to be increased substantially. The iden- tification of the effects of this increase is one of the most pressing needs in the agriculture sector. Other needs in soil and water management con- cern the determination of the effects of maintenance management of ter- races and grass waterways for wildlife habitat and of the effects of salinity on human health (in irrigated regions) and animal populations. Crop Production - Nutrient Management. Ecological effect research is needed to determine the long-term effects of leaching of nitrogen with other ions into the soil profile. New fertilizer technology is expected to be developed, particularly in formulations, e.g., microencapsulation and biological inhibitors of nutrification, and their effects should be assessed. Crop Production - Pesticide Management. Research should continue on the effects of pesticides on human health, especially that investigating such effects when pesticides are properly used. As new pesticides are de- veloped, ecological effect research should assess their use, and attention should be directed toward the effects of agents on non-target organisms, particularly those involving predators and parasites. Feedlot Production - Residual Disposal Management. Ecological effects re- search should determine the results of the land application of feedlot wastes. Of most need are documentations of the effects of high sodium deflocculation and of the long-term effects of nitrate leaching. 74 ------- Range and Pasture Management. Research needs are most apparent in two par- ticular areas: the ecological effects of chemicals used for land renova- tion and the effects consequent to the introduction of new forage species. B. Silviculture Sector Research Needs Exhibit III-2 presents the research needs most germane to silviculture. These needs are categorized as were those for this study's agriculture sector. Production Efficiency Research Needs Silviculture production efficiency has resulted from a greater use of modern equipment, a better utilization of timber, more intensive management, and improved technology in timber growing. These developments, many having both beneficial and adverse environmental effects have promoted a better balance between timber production and environmental protection. However, since much of the technology associated with the use of modern equipment has worked to the detriment of the environment, EPA should initiate research which would monitor the environmental effects of production efficiency improvements. (This study recognizes, of course, the responsibility of the U.S. Forest Service in this area.) Research needs related to increased production efficiency have been identi- fied in three management areas: harvest management, stand control and damage control. Harvest Management. Silviculture productivity has been improved through an increasing utilization of the total biomass, principally in the South where the utilization of roots, branches, and foliage from the younger timber, relatively free of defects, has been profitable. Research should determine the-optimum level of such utilization which would reflect both its long- term economic benefit and its associated environmental damages. Stand Control Management. Silviculture production utilizes the early re- establishment of timber species, and the extensive use of mechanical equip- ment during site preparation, especially in the South, to further such reestablishment. Prompt reestablishment is desirable, but some techniques have frequently proved to be environmentally disruptive. Research should determine the optimal balance between the requirements of species regen- eration and environmental need. Damage Control Management. A significant need for ecological effects re- search within the damage control management area recognizes the potential impact consequent to uncontrolled fires. A need is apparent to develop effective means of identifying fire danger, of predicting fire behavior, and of determining corrective actions which will have the least disruptive ecological effects. 75 ------- Exhibit III-2. Summary of silviculture lector research needs by trend and research category Silviculture anagMont Area/Trend HARVEST MANAGEMENT Access Production Efficiency Research Needs Pollution Measurement Research Needs Pollution Reduction Research Needs Determine minimum road Ecological Impact Research Needs Determine relative effects of standards (cut, fill, bed width, ballast) compatible with road use needs. Develop equipment designed to minimize soil disturbance. minimum road standards versus those in practice today. Determine effects on site quality of roads abandoned to revert to forest after use. Extraction Determine needs by region of equipment innovations that can accomplish harvest at minimum environmental costs consistent with economic considerations. Determine methods of reducing pollution (soil disturbance, detachment, and transport) for new logging equipment CTi Utilization Determine optimum level of utilization of biomass 1n commercial forests and means of projecting en- vironmental effects under varying cutting levels. Determine sedineit load- ings in streeitr from various levels of bio- mass utilization. Determine kinds, volumes, and sizes of material that should be left on site to aid in con- trolling pollution resulting from varying levels of utili- zation. Determine effects of alternatives in level of utilization of biomass on the aquatic and terrestrial systems. Determine effects of Increasing utilization on nutrients 1n the ecosystem. STAND CONTROL Site Preparation Determine minimum amount of site preparation re- quired to meet require- ments for establishing regeneration. Determine level of pesticide residues In media from chemical treatments in site preparation. Determine method or combina- tion of methods most effi- cient or suitable for en- vironmental conditions. Determine the extent of re- duction of environmental damages possible by alter- native methods or combination of methods. Determine which equipment results In least pollution effect and which causes the most. Determine the ecological effects of herbicides used 1n site prepa- ration; i.e., reaction of soil biomass to chemicals, volatiza- tion of chemicals in atmosphere. Determine long term ecological effects of extensive drainage and phosphate loadings 1n pre- paring swamps for planting pine in Southeast. DAMAGE CONTROL Fire Control Develop more effective means of identifying fire danger and deter- mining fire behavior. CUTTING SYSTEMS Clear Cutting Evaluate long term effects of clear cutting effects on ter- restrial systems. ------- Pollution Measurement Research Needs n nuren osses w vary y erng eves o have correspondingly differing environmental effects ct on - n w ave corresponingly differing environmental ef potential effect on the eco-system of stream sediment loading search necessar to m oena eect on the eco-system of stream sediment loading m search necessary to measure such loading for the various levels utilization. biomass Stand Control Management. Chemical site preparation treatment may be pre- ferred at times to mechanical treatment because it offers less soil dis- turbance, a minimum alteration of surface water mechanics, and much less disruption of the nutrient cycles. Some chemicals are usually applied only once in a 30 to 100 year rotation, pesticide effects are generally expected to be minimal; however, to determine the long-term effects of pesticide applications, research should determine the level of pesticide residues in the media resulting from chemical treatment associated with site preparation. Pollution Reduction Research Needs A primary concern of EPA is the identification of economically feasible and socially acceptable alternatives in silviculture which will help prevent and control adverse environmental effects. Research in this area is very closely related to that of production efficiency, since, in many cases, reductions in pollution result directly from increases in efficiency. Specific needs in this category have been identified in two silvicultural management areas. Harvest Management. Environmental effects research needs are apparent for both extraction and utilization practices. Innovations in extracting equip- ment technology have frequently been developed at the expense of the environ- ment; consequently, research is needed to design equipment, particularly logging equipment, that will minimize environmental damages. Such research should address regional requirements since these may vary substantially among regions. Research is needed, also, to determine the optimum levels of ma- terials utilization (i.e., kinds, volumes, and sizes) in order to minimize the adverse environmental effects of such utilization practices. An addi- tional research need should focus on developing minimum access road standards reflective of industry needs and environmental requirements. Stand Control Management. Research is needed to ascertain which of the methods or combination of methods — mechanical, chemical or burning — causes the least short-term and long-term environmental damages. Each method has both advantages and disadvantages in economic efficiency and environmental effects. The extent of damages associated with each of the alternatives should also be determined to facilitate the development of controls to reduce the pollution effects of site preparation. Such re- search should determine the equipment that would have the least environ- mental impact. 77 ------- Ecological Impact Research Needs An ecological assessment of trends in silviculture was an important objec- tive of the study and was largely based on research literature. On the whole, the literature did reflect a broad and effective coverage of silvi- culture's ecological effects. However, several research needs were apparent, Harvest Management. Ecological impact research is needed regarding both access and utilization practices. As discussed above, road standards need to be modified to reduce associated adverse effects and research should be conducted to determine their ecological effects. The increasing trend towards greater utilization of the total biomass reflects significant im- provement in production efficiency (primarily in the East); however, the effects of sedimentation, turbidity, and thermal pollution resulting from these practices are largely unknown. Research should, then, address the ecological effects of utilization practices and should examine their ef- fects under different levels of intensity. An additional and important re- search need is one that would determine the ecological effects consequent to industry's abandonment of forest access roads in harvested areas. Spec- ifically, research should determine the characteristic of the subsequent erosion and its ecological effect. Stand Control Management. Two site preparations research needs were iden- tified. As indicated previously, the levels of pesticide residues re- sulting from chemical treatment are not widely known. As these levels be- come established, research should continue on their ecological effects and should include an examination of the reaction of the soil biomass to chem- icals and of the volitalization of chemicals in the atmosphere. Secondly, research is needed to determine the long-term effects of extensive drainage and phosphate loadings, resulting from the preparation of wetlands for tree planting, e.g., for planting pine forests in the Southeast. Cutting Systems Management. Ecological effects research is needed to determine both the short and long-term effects of clear cutting systems and selective cutting systems. A belief of this study's silviculture- panel was that important differences exist among and within regions in terms of soil types, topography, climatic conditions, type of timber, and other factors which affect the optimal cutting system for a given location. Both short and long-term ecological effects need to be assessed since logging and reforestation practices will differ for each type of cutting system. 78 ------- SECTION IV POLICY ISSUES One objective of this study was to identify policy issues associated with the environmental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture. This section identifies those policy issues germane to the trends and sub- trends as presented in both Phase I (Volume I) and Phase II of this study. These policy issues are the Contractor's assessment of prospective issues; they do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Environmental Pro- tection Agency (EPA). The specific policy alternatives described are only suggestive of options which might be implemented to forward policy goals. EPA has broad authority to establish controls for nonpoint sources (NPS) of pollution in both agriculture and silviculture. For example, Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act. (P.L. 92-500) requires that state and local regulatory and other programs be developed to control NPS water pollution. Plans developed pursuant to Section 208 must set forth procedures and methods to control, to the extent feasible, the nonpoint sources of pollution. Furthermore, Section 208 programs are to be imple- mented in concert with Section 201(c) which further requires that, to the extent practicable, waste treatment management shall provide control or treatment of all point and nonpoint pollutants. Within such a legal basis (and others, i.e., the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System and the irrigated return flows regulations) for estab- lishing regulatory and other programs, it is pertinent to consider—given an understanding of trends and probable developments in agriculture and silvi- culture—an array of potential controls which may emerge in view of pending legislative requirements to EPA regarding effective NPS pollution control. Generally speaking, agriculture's and silviculture's nonpoint sources of pollution are subject to (1) the control or treatment of wastes generated by production systems, (2) the control of polluting inputs (including land), and (3) the control of management practices to reduce pollutants generated. Policy issues arise, then, as a direct consequence of considering public (vs. private) measures to influence any or all of these control approaches. Relevant policy issues are, that is, inherent in these fundamental ques- tions: "What control or treatment of wastes should be imposed on agri- culture and silviculture production systems?" "What controls should be 79 ------- placed on the use of polluting inputs, including land?" "What controls should be placed on the utilization of management practices?" Many policy-related instruments may implement an NPS control plan: for example, Regulation, Education, Economic Incentives, and Public Invest- ments. However, this study's analysis seeks not to identify specific implementation alternatives; rather, the study identifies only the policy areas in which issues may emerge in agriculture and silviculture as a re- sult of the environmental implications analyzed in this study. Further analyses are needed in order to determine whether effective and practica- ble policy instruments could be developed and implemented. A. Agriculture Sector Policy Issues Within the agriculture sector, as with other nonpoint sources of pollution, it is difficult to maintain effective, practicable controls over wastes from disperse production locations; consequently, relatively more attention has been given either to the control of polluting inputs or to the control of management practices to reduce pollutants. This study, also, focuses atten- tion on policy issues associated with the latter two forms of control. Exhibit IV-1 summarizes the agricultural subsectors1 (Exhibit column 1) po- tential policy issues (Exhibit rows) as categorized by types of control (Exhibit columns 3, 4, 5). This summary pertains explicitly to the poten- tial controls which are directly linked to the major environmentally-related trends of this study—either Phase I or Phase II. Additional policy issues outside of the scope of this study are not assessed even though such policies may have consequential environmental implications. For instance, above- normal export demand, though not within the scope of this study, can be a consequential determinant of the impact of production systems. An unusually high and prolonged export demand can result in a dramatic increase in land, nutrient, and pesticide use great enough to cause measurable effects on the environment. A definitive survey of policy issues would, of course, con- sider such relationships. The following descriptions of policy issues, as outlined in Exhibit IV-1, contain both a brief summary of pollution problems inherent in particular subsectors of agriculture and an explanation of their prospective policy- related NPS control issues/problems. The policy issues are categorized by (1) control of wastes, (2) control of inputs, and (3) control of management practices. Crop Production Subsector - Soil and Water Management Water runoff and its associated soil erosion are the main contributors to agriculture's NPS pollution. Soil is transported by the runoff and is it- self (as sediment) a pollutant causing turbidity and deposition problems in water channels and receptors. Additionally, such sediment is a carrier of attached pollutants: nutrients (especially phosphates), pesticides, and soil minerals. Soluble materials, such as nutrients (especially 80 ------- Exhibit IV-1. Summary of agriculture sector oolicy issues by management function and basic policy area Agriculture Subsector/ Management Function Basic Policy Area Control of Wastes Control of Inputs Control of Management Practices Crop Production Subsector Soil and water management Nutrient management A. AGRICULTURE SECTOR Sediment, salinity, nu- trients, pesticide res- idues, crop residues Nutrients Land use, water resource use Fertilizer resource use; development of improved fertilizer; development biological nitrogen- fixation sources Runoff and erosion control; conservation tillage; im- proved water application; wind erosion control; crop sequencing Soil-plant analysis; methods of nutrient application; other co Pesticide management Pesticide residues Pesticide resource use; development of new bio- logical and chemical pesticides; improvement of seeds and plants Scouting and integrated con- trols; improvement of pes- ticide application methods and timing; other Feedlot Production Subsector \j Residual disposal management (off-site) Range and Pasture Management Subsector jl/ Grazing management Renovations and improvements Organic material, nitrates, micro- organisms Sediment, nutrients, organic material, microorganisms Sediment, nutrients, pesticides Land use, off-site dis- posal limitations, feed- lot size Land use Land use, fertilizer and pesticide resource use, equipment use, controlled fire use Alternative residual dis- posal ; feedlot size Grazing practices and stock- ing rates Range and pasture renova- tion; range and pasture im- provements; using increased resources; other I/ Within the feedlot and range and pasture subsectors, management areas are not all inclusive. Only the most environmentally significant areas, and with feedlot production, only management areas directly related to non-point source control are considered. ------- nitrates), pesticides, and saline minerals, and suspended materials, such as crop residues, are also transported in water runoff. The control of run- off and erosion is, therefore, perhaps the most critical environmental prob- lem in the agriculture production sector. Control of Wastes. The direct control or treatment of such residuals assoc- iated with runoff and erosion have usually been regarded as infeasible be- cause of the wide dispersion of agriculture's discharge locations. In some instances, however, such as with irrigation return flows, collector channels have been established and waste residuals have been considered as point sources subject to EPA point source controls. Perhaps, in other special cases, drainage conditions exist such that other collector systems could also be devised to consolidate agricultural waste flows—systems which might be treated as point sources subject to regulation. Generally, however, pub- lic involvement would be required both with structures planning and develop- ment and with treatment processes. Control of Inputs. Soil and water management implies, specifically, the control of either land use or water resource use. That is, for example, lands with known runoff or erosion problems, such as land with steep slopes, highly erodable soil structure or flood site locations may be restrained in terms of crop use or cultivation practices. Where such conditions and their attendant problems are identifiable, national land use regulations may be considered feasible policy issues as a means of lessening the overall detrimental effects of using such marginally advantageous sites. Water re- source use, especially in irrigated crop production, may also be controlled. A policy issue germane to water resource use can be a reduced subsidization of irrigation, a reduction which would, by increasing the cost of irrigation, result in the more intensified and judicious management and use of water re- sources. Control of Management Practices. In general, many current and prospective agricultural practices are directed primarily toward improved soil and water management. A group of specific runoff and erosion control practices such as contour farming, terracing, grass waterway construction, and narrow row cultivation are important to controlling runoff, reducing erosion, and lessening the detrimental effects of the associated pollutants. Conceivably, more can be done to foster the use of runoff and erosion control practices. Additionally, other trends and developments that were assessed in this study are primarily associated with improved soil and water management. Conservation tillage methods, such as reduced tillage and no-till, show a high potential for reducing erosion and conserving water—thereby lower- ing pollutant loadings. Unfortunately, some offsetting factors are that more pest problems occur and less reliable yields are obtained. The use of more pesticides is common, and, hence, an increased pollution potential exists. On balance, the optimum conservation tillage practice for a given farming situation remains unclear at this time. More research with this method of soil and water management is clearly needed before specific policies are adopted. 82 ------- Water application methods in irrigated crop production may also be developed further to improve the associated environmental effects. Already, return flows of irrigation tailwaters are being reduced, recycled and/or treated as point sources. However, salinity build-up in the soils is a major prob- lem in some areas, and heavy irrigation rates to leach salts from the soil are essential to maintain crop productivity. Again, counter-balancing ef- fects on either the water resource or the soil resource exist, and thus, an optimum management practice cannot be uniformly given. Nonetheless, broad policies to promote effective management practices in water applica- tion, in particular, and in soil and water management, in general, are relevant. Such policies must recognize interactions among environmental media, however. Crop Production Subsector - Nutrient Management Nutrient losses from agricultural activities into surface water and ground- water are a major environmental concern due primarily to eutrophication ef- fects, and, also, to toxicological impacts in some cases, e.g., nitrates in groundwater. In the future, fertilizer use is expected to increase sub- stantially in order to achieve projected crop production; and, control of residual nutrients into water receptors will likely continue as a major problem. Control of Wastes. Runoff treatment to reduce nutrient levels is not generally regarded as feasible. Even in special cases where runoff can be collected, costly treatment facilities, probably publically subsidized, would be needed; hence, it appears most practical to consider other control policies. Control of Inputs. A more accessible means of nutrient runoff control is to control fertilizer resource use. Some type of restriction or condition could be placed on fertilizer use in various farming situations, e.g., re- stricted per acre fertilizer rates under given conditions; however, such policies should carefully consider the economic and environmental trade- offs because indiscriminate fertilizer-use control may limit desired growth. For example, restrictions on fertilizer use may reduce crop production per acre, increase production costs, cause a more extensive (vs. intensive) agricultural production, and require high administrative and enforcement costs. On the environmental side, nutrient levels in surface and ground- water may be reduced (unless significantly more extended production occurs), although the environmental impacts of such reductions in nutrients cannot be accurately estimated. Other forms of control in fertilizer use might include improved formulations, e.g., use of fertilizers that contain nitrate inhibitors or controlled release chemicals. On balance, great care must be exercised in any policy to control the use of nutrients because alternative production-paths may result in equally serious environmental problems. Control of Management Practices. This third type of general policy alter- native has various options for reducing nutrient loss. For example, best management practices could be developed to combine such factors as timing, 83 ------- placement, form, number and application method (as is now being developed in general through EPA's BMP system planning). Such practices would gener- ally be directed toward the most efficient crop utilization, although this objective is not inconsistent with improving nutrient losses since current practices often involve heavy, single fertilizer applications primarily for operator-ease. Such applications may be subject to greater nutrient loss than would be multiple applications of lesser amounts per application. Another example of a management practice control option would be the fos- tering of soil-plant analysis to enable the farm operator to more precisely determine the nutrient requirements of his growing crops. This practice would better balance crop needs and reduce excessive fertilizer applications where applicable. In some cases fertilizer rates may actually need to be increased, but, as outlined above, additions of fertilizer would be dis- persed in time, and the nutrients applied would presumably be more readily available for uptake during the growing period with less runoff potential during a given time interval. Emerging developments such as biological nitrogen-fixation sources and im- proved fertilizer formulations should continue to be monitored as poten- tial means of controlling fertilizer resource use and/or best management practices. In the short-term, however, effective nutrient management will mostly involve careful execution of selected practices; the execution of a practice may indeed be as important environmentally as the selection of the practice itself. Crop Production Subsector - Pesticide Management Pesticide residues are widespread in the environment, stemming largely from agriculture's use of thse chemicals to maintain and improve crop production and quality. These residues are found in the air, soil, water supplies, and the human food chain, and have been responsible for adverse effects on non-target wildlife species. Residues enter the environment through drift during application, by volatilization after application, and by transport via surface water runoff and sediment. Certain pesticides will also be leached into ground water supplies. While the debate continues over the actual hazards of pesticide residues in the environment, these residues should be controlled to reduce potential dangers. Ideally, pesticide management should be for optimal crop production with minimal adverse effects on the environment. Control of Hastes. The direct control of pesticide residues in all media receptors, i.e., soil, air and water, would be difficult, perhaps impossible. Though not yet economically practical, only surface water treatment to re- move pesticide residues appears technically possible. For the most part, the greatest potential for adverse effects occurs after pesticide application during the first run-off event. Prospective on-site treatment of pesticides in this first run-off could be beneficial to the aquatic ecosystem, and treatment at some later point, after dilution or partial degradation, would likely be much less effective. This time and event-dependent relationship, plus the dispersed location of discharge points and the difficulty of pesti- cide control treatment, makes direct control seem economically infeasible. 84 ------- Control of Inputs. Pesticide resource controls have been a policy alterna- tive regularly utilized by EPA in the past, especially for toxic substances. Most commonly, certain pesticides have been banned from agricultural use, or are available only for restricted uses. This action has often resulted in the use of alternative pesticides by farm operators, and, such pesticides may either be less effective or require more active material application per acre to achieve adequate control. Even so, the banned materials are presumed to have caused (or will have caused) even greater environmental damage. In the future, the banning of additional pesticides is viewed as a viable policy option. Other forms of restrictions on pesticide use would be less severe, yet per- haps more environmentally beneficial. Controlling the rates of use or the specifying of conditions of use, including the licensing of pesticide appli- cators as is now being accomplished under FIFRA, may become more widely feas- ible in the future. A difficulty with such an alternative is simply its en- forcement and the potentially high administrative costs. However, the use of integrated pest control management, i.e., use of chemical-mechanical- biological management systems, is expected to increase in the future; con- ceivably, with restricted (rather than banned) pesticides, more cost- effective and environmentally acceptable management practices could be developed. Alternative formulations of pesticides are regularly being developed which offer improved pest control and less active material per application: formulations of surfactants with herbicides, foaming agents, and uniform granular particles. In general, such alternative formulations are ex- pected to reduce pesticide requirements per application because of their improved effectiveness. These formulations often offer the advantage, also, of less drift problems during application. Control of Management Practices. Current agricultural trends in pest control management are amenable to policy controls. For example, the expected in- crease in scouting and integrated controls will aid in reducing the use of chemical pesticides. Associated management practices such as crop rotations and the use of pest-resistant crop varieties, attractants, biological pesti- cides, and others can reduce the need for chemical pesticides. In general, it is expected that pest control management alternatives, such as biological pest controls, will only reduce, and not eliminate, the need for chemical pesticides. Fortunately, improved chemical pesticides are also being developed which are selective against pests, more readily biodegrad- able, and non-toxic to man and animals. Plant-breeding improvements which increase the insect and disease resistance of crops will further aid in the reduction of chemical pesticide use. The effectiveness of any of these alternative pest management practices will depend upon the particular crop and pests present. As an example, a farm operator might have a choice of using a chemical pesticide, a bio- logical control, or a very resistant crop variety for control of a partic- ular insect. For another insect problem, the only effective option might be the use of chemical pesticides. Farm operators cannot be expected to 85 ------- voluntarily adopt alternatives such as pheromones or attractants until it is feasible for commercial use and can be shown to be as effective as current control methods. Consequently, continued research and public education will do much to foster adoption of other pest control practices. Feedlot Production Subsector - Residual Disposal Management Feedlot residual disposal alternatives are: temporary storage, on-site dis- posal, refeeding, and off-site disposal. Off-site disposal is the only al- ternative considered to have significant implications for NFS control, and, thus, it is the only practice in the feedlot production subsector assessed herein. Control of Wastes. In general, the off-site disposal of wastes is expected to result in increased concentrations of nitrates, organic material and microorganisms in receiving waters. Nitrate levels in ground water may also be increased. Unfortunately, once untreated feedlot wastes leave the feedlot and are dispersed on the land, their direct control or treatment is seldom feasible, as with crop production residuals. The costs of prior-disposal treatment facilities and their technological limitations have been prohibi- tive; hence, direct controls show little promise as a policy alternative at the present time. Control of Inputs. More practical is the control of feedlot-related inputs. The land available for feedlot waste disposal may be regulated. In addi- tion, controls might be placed on off-site disposal application rates, and, controls might be placed on feedlot size based on the amount of suitable land in the local area that is available for waste disposal. Controls and restrictions on land use might be applicable, for example, where land has severe erosion problems or where land drains into a heavily used or sensitive water receptor. Disposal application rates can be de- termined for soil characteristics, topography, and method of application. Finally, feedlot-size constraints can be imposed to reflect the relative availability of waste disposal sites. Such input restraints can be maintained by policy issues that regulate the extent and character of land sites approved for feedlot operations or waste disposal. Control of Management Practices. Proper waste disposal application rates (also a resource use control) and methods e.g., solid or slurry, incorpor- ated in soil or not, etc. constitute feasible management practices subject to policy issues. Continued research is needed, however, to ascertain the best management practices in this feedlot waste disposal area. Range and Pasture Management Subsector - Grazing Management Livestock grazing on range and pasture land generally results in increased soil erosion and runoff. Grazing livestock wastes, also, result in in- creased amounts of nitrate, organic material and microorganisms in 86 ------- receiving waters. Proper grazing management practices will minimize these pollution effects. Control of Wastes. Policies to control or treat range and pasture grazing residues are not expected to be feasible because of the highly dispersed and expansive character of ranges and pastures. Furthermore, many persons would argue that the residuals generated are relatively insignificant when compared with other agricultural or point source wastes. These arguments suggest that the greatest policy focus should be on control of inputs or control of management practices where improper actions are evident. Control of Inputs. Land use is the only applicable input for policy control Land with severe topographical limitations or land having fragile soils could be excluded from grazing. Such control would reduce erosion problems and the transport of livestock wastes into receiving waters. (Stocking rates—number of animals per unit land—may also be considered as an input variable, but this is discussed below as a management practice.) Control of Management Practices. Because grazing practices are the main management function having associated environmental effects, they are the most susceptible to control policies. First, grazing management systems are normally selected by producers, and proper stocking rates are implicit within the system. Grazing systems are either continuous or specialized. The determination and selection of a grazing system should be based on factors such as the type and location of the range or pasture, its topo- graphical limitations, the condition of the range or pasture, and other factors (e.g., use of land for recreation or silvicultural production). The factors to be assessed in selecting the best grazing system are com- plex, and, for that reason, policies to control the selection of proper management practices may be applicable. The Bureau of Land Management, USDI, and the U.S. Forest Service currently provide grazing management services and controls on public lands. Range and Pasture Management - Renovations and Improved Management Range and pasture renovations and improvements involve practices which usually cause soil disturbances and consequent soil loss. Chemical reno- vations will also involve increased pesticide runoff. In these cases, however, pollutant loading increases are normally temporary, and, as re- vegetation occurs on the disturbed or bared soil, the loadings subside. For example, drainage and erosion control structures result in a short- term disruption, but they will eventually promote soil stability and, thereby, benefit the environment in the future. Because of the differ- ential short-term vs. long-term effects of range and pasture renovations and improvements care must be taken in developing policy controls which might limit renovations in the short-run without adequate evaluation of the long-term effects. Control of Wastes. The control of renovation and improvement wastes is Impracticable both because of the dispersed and intermittent nature of the practices and because of their relatively short-term environmental 87 ------- effects. Further considerations of policy controls are, therefore, limited to potential resource use limitations and management practice issues. Control of Inputs. Land use, pesticide use and prescribed fire use are the primary inputs that may be considered for policy control. Lands unsuited for grazing or lands with limited carrying-capacity may be restricted in use and/or renovation practices may be required. Pesticide uses on ranges or pastures may be regulated, or even banned, under adverse conditions -- much the same as is being done with pesticides in other agricultural subsectors. The use of prescribed burning for renovation purposes may be subject to con- trols in air quality limited regions. Control of Management Practices. Range and pasture renovation or improvement practices may result in controversial policy issues, for though these prac- tices generally result in short-term soil disturbances and increased pollu- tion, they can yield improved soil stability and reduced pollution in the long-term. Careful assessments are needed to determine optimum strategies under varied range or pasture conditions. Alternative management practices include mechanical or chemical renovations and renovations through prescribed burnings. Particular attention needs to be given to any potential controls on range or pasture lands with a rough terrain or with fragile soils. Other management practices are primarily concerned with the quality of the range or pasture vegetation. For example, improvements are being made in the nutritional quality of the vegetation, genetic developments are being pursued, and inter-seedings with improved forage varieties have been achieved. These practices will indirectly, if not directly, affect environmental qual- ity by improving the production efficiency of the nation's range and pasture resources. Environmental control policies which foster such management practices may be feasible and beneficial. B. Silviculture Sector Policy Issues While certain similarities exist in pollutants generated by the agriculture and silviculture sectors, certain innate differences do exist; and thus, their policy issues are assessed separately. Differences include 30 to 100 year growth cycles in silviculture compared to the predominant annual cycles in agriculture production. Specifically, total annual levels of pollutants from the entire silviculture sector are relatively small because of the long growth cycles which require that only a relatively small portion of the total 500 million acres of timber be entered each year for any type of management. Aesthetic and wildlife considerations, also, may become an increasingly most important part of silviculture production from the environmentalist's viewpoint. Silviculture is expected to coexist with wildlife populations, be aesthetically pleasing, and, at the same time, provide the nation's timber supply. These multiuse purposes for forest lands complicate the environmental assessment process. ------- As with agriculture, three types of policy controls are discussed within the silviculture sector: control of wastes, control of inputs, and con- trol of management practices. A general summary of potential policy is- sues, categorized by type of control, is shown in Exhibit IV-2. This sum- mary includes both the Phase I and Phase II environmentally-related trends in silviculture identified in this overall study. Silviculture Production Sector - Harvest Management Function The principal pollutant generated by harvest management practices is sedi- ment. Since forest areas are seldom fertilized or treated with chemical pesticides on a regular basis, sediment is usually not a carrier of appli- cation nutrients or pesticide residues. Other environmental effects of harvesting include thermal pollution, altered water flow patterns, forest residues, wildlife disruptions, and aesthetics. While pollutants resulting from harvest activity may contribute only a small part to aggregate non- point source pollution, the effect of large sediment loadings or wildlife disruptions in isolated harvest areas can be very damaging to the ecosystem in that area. Hence, harvest management, in general, should be evaluated to improve the control of generated pollutants as well as for the control of ecological effects. Control of Wastes. The direct control of sediment generated by harvesting practices is not regarded as feasible, primarily because sediment loadings from silviculture activities may be rather insignificant and surface waters receiving sediment loads will change each year with harvest activity. Forest residues remaining after harvest can be collected for future use or for con- trolled burning. Control of Inputs. Harvest management inputs include land use and equipment use. Associated policy issues can designate certain sections of a forest area as critical habitat for certain endangered species, and, therefore, restrict harvesting. Land with steep terrain or fragile soils could be withdrawn from road constructions. Harvesting equipment could also be banned for use in certain terrains and forest types, or conversely specific practices could be required to ensure minimal environmental impacts. Such harvest management input contols could be readily adopted on public lands; private holdings might be similarly managed, with greater complexity however, if necessary. Control of Management Practices^ While practices can clearly be established and identified in agriculture to control runoff and erosion or to control nutrient losses, these equivalent practices do not exist in silviculture. Rather, a series of broad functional steps (trends) are involved in har- vesting management: access to timber, cutting systems, log extraction methods, and utilization of forest biomass. Each of these steps has associated practices that must be used during the harvesting of a forest. Management practices for harvesting are not considered as control measures, themselves; rather the control of management practices for harvesting im- plies the proper use of equipment, use of well-engineered plans, and proper execution of management practices to cause the least environmental damage. In certain cases, as with cutting systems, a selected management 89 ------- Exhibit IV-2. Summary of silviculture sector policy issues by management function and basic policy area Basic Policy Area Silviculture Management Control of Management Function Control of Wastes Control of Inputs Practices B. SILVICULTURE SECTOR Harvest management Forest residues, sed- Land use, equipment use Access to timber resource; cutting system; iment log extraction; utilization us Stand control management Sediment, nutrients, Fertilizer resource use, Site preparation; growth enhancement 0 forest residues land use, equipment use, stand conversion; stand establishment control burning use Damage control management Forest residues, pes- Land use, pesticide re- Fire control; pest control ticide residues, sed- source use, controlled iment, nutrients burning use ------- practice may be more desirable for specific terrains for forest species. In summary, the proper execution of a given management practice is usually of greater concern in harvest management than is the selection of the manage- ment practice, per se; however, some exceptions are apparent, which may be subject to effective policy control, such as with cutting system selection. Silviculture Production Sector - Stand Control Management Stand control management practices often result in significant soil loss and sediment loadings in receiving waters. Since fertilizer applications are required with some of these practices, nutrient loss may also accompany soil movement and surface runoff. Additionally, other environmental effects of stand control practices are impaired aesthetic values, unsightly forest residues, and wildlife disruptions (often irreversible). Thus, the primary objective of stand control management should be the achieving maximum forest growth for future harvest while reducing sediment loading in receiving waters and minimizing ecological disruptions. Control of Wastes. The direct control of wastes or residuals associated with stand control involves the control of sediment, nutrients, and forest residues. Direct control or treatment of sediment and nutrients is expected to be economically infeasible because sediment loading locations are very diverse and will change as stand control management moves from one site to another after successful regeneration. Direct control of forest residues is already being accomplished by the collection of residuals remaining after site preparation, thinning control or other stand control measures. These residues, after collection, may be marketed or burned, under controlled con- ditions, as a means of removal. Control of Inputs. Stand control management practice inputs include the two as discussed for harvest management -- land use and equipment use, plus two additional inputs -- fertilizer use and controlled burning use. De- pending upon the terrain, harvest methods, and desired forest species, each of the four inputs could have restraints placed on their use. For example, large applications of phosphate are needed on some forest soils in the South for successful regeneration. Should phosphate concentrations in surface water greatly increase, phosphate application could be restricted on a per acre basis. Another example of input control would involve land use in the conversion of wetlands to productive forests. If these wetlands were to be designated as critical habitat for winter waterfowl, then further conversion of this land into forest area could be restricted. Control of Management Practices. Four trends -- site preparation, growth enhancement, stand conversion, and stand establishment are considered stand control management practices. Each of these has a number of associated practices that can be used singly or in conjunction with other practices to achieve optimum forest regeneration; however, as with harvest management practices, the proper execution of a given management practice is often of greater concern than is the actual selection of a management practice. For the most part, a stand control management practice is primarily designed not to specifically reduce a pollutant or minimize certain ecological 91 ------- effects but to be effective in some area of stand control. With careful, conscientious execution, pollutants and other ecological effects resulting from these practices can be reduced. Site preparation can be accomplished by several means: log extraction method, mechanical preparation, burning prescription, chemical treatment, fertilizer treatment, and soil moisture control. Burning prescription or chemical treatment might be preferred practices in forest areas with steep terrains, fragile soils, or heavy rainfall; with other soils and forest types, any of the site preparation methods, with proper planning and exe- cution, could be used with minimal pollutant loading effects. Growth enhancement, stand conversion, and stand establishment also offer some choice in practice alternatives. Again, proper execution is often the most important aspect in reducing pollutant loadings and ecological effects. Silviculture Production Sector - Damage Control Management The third area of selected silviculture management functions is the control of fire, insects, and disease to reduce the potential for forest damage. Pesticide residue levels in receiving waters are expected to increase with chemical control of insects and disease. Mechanical treatment used to eliminate infested material will result in forest residues and in minor soil disturbances. For the most part, fire control and prevention methods will have relatively insignificant environmental impacts. Controlled fire will result in air pollution and in temporary increases in the nutrient levels of receiving streams. Control of Wastes. Forest residues, sediment, nutrients, and pesticides partially discussed previously, are associated with direct control of re- siduals resulting from damage control management. Additionally, collection and/or controlled burning of forest residues may result in beneficial aes- thetic effects, and as a management practice, the elimination of these residues will reduce the potential for hazardous forest fires. Control of Inputs. As with the other management practices, certain forests are or could be designated as having critical habitat or as having such topographical limitations that restrictions could be placed on land and/or resource use. Fire control practices, a third damage management practice input, involve improvements in prevention and detection methods and in the use of controlled fire to reduce the potential of disastrous fires. Generally, these practices will have relatively insignificant environ- mental impacts, and the control of management practices will be for more efficiency in their functions rather than for the control of environmental pollutants. Control of Management Practices^. For insect and disease control, only two options exist for management practices: control by mechanical treatment or control by chemical agents. Since each can result in pollutants of some nature, careful planning and execution of either practice are necessary to reduce potential environmental pollutants. Some alternatives do exist, 92 ------- however, in the control of insects and disease. If, for example, a properly applied insecticide has adverse effects on non-target wildlife or on aquatic ecosystems from aerial drift or surface runoff, then the best management might involve using mechanical treatment in that area, even though forest residues and potential soil loss will occur. Additionally, pest control with such biological agents as pheromones, repellants, or natural predators may become another alternative by 2010. This practice might be preferable to chemical or mechanical control in some areas. 93 ------- SECTION V BIBLIOGRAPHY Adriano, D. C., P. F. Pratt and S. E. Bishop, "Fate of Organic Forms of N and Salt from Land-Disposal Manures from Dairies," In: Livestock Waste Management and Pollution Abatement, pp. 243-246, Amer. Soc. of Agr. Eng., St. Joseph, Michigan, 1971. All is, G. A., "The Story of Two Watersheds," Journal Soil and Water Con- servation, 7(5):243, 1952. Anderson, H. 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Department of Agriculture, The Nation's Range Resources, Forest Resource, Rep. No. 19, 1972. U. S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Control of Water Pollution From Cropland, Volume 1, Report No. ARS-H-5-1, Washington, D. C., 1975. "Varieties," Crops and Soils. 28(7):23, 1976. Wallingford, G. W., L. S. Murphy, W. L. Powers and H. L. Manges, "Effect of Beef-Feedlots Lagoon Water on Soil Chemical Properties and Growth and Composition of Corn Forage," J. Environ. Quality, 3:74-75, 1974. Ward, F. R., and J. W. Russell, "High Lead Scarification: An Alternative for Site Preparation and Fire Hazard Reduction," Fire Management, Fall 3-4, 9, 1975. Ware, L. M., and W. A. Johnson, "Poultry Manure for Vegetable Crops—Effects and Value," Agr. Exp. Station Bull. 386, Auburn Univ., Auburn, Alabama, 1968. Whitman, W., F. W. Christensen and E. A. Helgeson, "Pasture Grasses and Pasture Mixtures for Eastern North Dakota," North Dakota Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. , No. 327, 1943. Wischmeier, W. H., "Relation of Field-plot Runoff to Management and Physical Factors," Soil Science Society Amer. Proc., 30:272-277, 1966. Young, R. A., "Nutrients in Runoff from Manure Spread on Frozen Ground," Trans, of ASAE, 1973. Zobell, B., "Significance of Forest Renewable and Tree Improvement to Forest Farmers," Forest Farmer, Vol. 35, No. 6, p. 44, March, 1976. Ziverman, P. J., A. B. Drielsma, G. D. Jones, S. D. Klausner and D. Ellis, "Rates of Water Infiltration Resulting from Applications of Dairy Manure," In: Relationship of Agriculture to Soil and Water Pollu- tion, pp. 263-270, Proc. 1970 Cornell Agricultural Waste Management Conf., Graphics Management Corp., Washington, D. C., 1970. 105 ------- APPENDIX A DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND THE ECOLOGY WORKSHOP EVALUATION SUMMARY The Contractor prepared a background summary report of selected Phase II agriculture trends and subtrends which was submitted to an ecology work- shop panel for their review prior to the workshop. Based upon this sum- mary, the workshop identified and rated the ecological effects of each subtrend in three areas: aquatic life, terrestrial life, and human health. A. Background Summary Report - Agricultural Sector Only selected trends and their subtrends, from Phase I, as shown in Exhibit A-l, were chosen for the Phase II study. In particular, 10 trends and 41 subtrends are contained herein for detailed analysis. The Contractor con- ducted a thorough literature search for each subtrend's extensiveness of use, productivity effects, changes in resource use, and pollutant changes by media. Quantitative data were sought and included when available in the summary report. A worksheet was prepared for each subtrend showing the Con- tractor's research findings, conclusions, and references. This information was provided to each workshop participant in the background summary report and summaries are contained in the Appendix immediately following. B. Evaluation As mentioned, the principal task of the ecology workshop was to determine and rate the ecological effects of each agriculture subtrend in three areas: aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health. Ecological effects could be beneficial (+) or adverse (-) on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor, 2 = limited, 3 = moderate, 4 = important and 5 = major. A consensus judgment was sought by the workshop for all ecological ratings. Ratings were deter- mined for both the short-term, 1985, and long-term, 2010, relative to 1976. Worksheets showing the ecological effects, ecological ratings, and related ecological research needs for each subtrend are also contained herein in conjunction with the background summaries according to their trend-subtrend number as shown in Exhibit A-l. 106 ------- Exhibit A-l. Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in agriculture Sector/Trend Subtrend A. AGRICULTURE SECTOR Crop Production 1. Runoff and Erosion Control 2. Conservation Tillage 3. Improved Water Application 4. Improvement Seed and Plants 5. 6. Scouting and Integrated Controls Development of New Bio- logical and Chemical Pesticides 7. Methods of Nutrient Application 8. Soil Plant Analysis Feedlot Production 9. Alternative Residual Disposal Range and Pasture Management 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates 1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping 1.2 Terraces and grass waterways 1.3 Optimizing time of operations 1.4 Narrow rows 1.5 Winter cover crop 2.1 No-tillage 2.2 Reduced tillage 3.1 Furrow basins 3.2 Land grading 3.3 Sprinklers 3.4 Recycling and controlling tailwater 3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency 4.1 Weather resistance 4.2 Salt resistance 4.3 Production efficiency 4.4 Disease and insect resistant 5.1 Surface scouting 5.2 Remote sensing scouting 5.3 Integrated controls 6.1 Micro-encapsulated 6.2 Systemic pesticides 6.3 Surfactants for herbicides 6.4 Bio-degradable pesticides 6.5 Alternative formulations 6.6 Juvenile hormones 6.7 Pheromones 6.8 Sterile males 6.9 Predators and parasites 7.1 Foliar application 7.2 Multiple application 7.3 Fall application 7.4 Liquid fertilizer 7.5 Aerial and floater application 7.6 Improved nutrient placement 7.7 Irrigation application 8.1 Soil plant analysis 9.1 Off-site disposal- solids and liquids 10.1 Continuous grazing 10.2 Specialized grazing 10.3 Complementary forage seedings 10.4 Controlled livestock grazing 107 ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping Ecological Effect Rating _!/ TYPE OF EFFECT 19852010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic +1 +4 4-turbidity; tspecies diversity; low E in 1985; ^pesticide residues Terrestrial +1 +3 4-erosion; retention of nutrient cycles Human Health 0 0 No significant effects SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Extensiveness of contouring in 1935 (over 1976 use) will be low, but will increase by 2010. Beneficial aquatic effects _, result from decreased turbidity and pesticide residues in surface water. Species diversity will also increase in the o equatic ecosystem. Decreased erosion and retention of soil nutrient cycles will have long term beneficial terrestrial 00 effects. Since pesticide residues at current levels in drinking water are not known to be a human health hazard, reduction of pesticide residues will have no significant human health effects. However, if pesticide residues are later determined to be dangerous at current levels, then human health effects would be beneficial. (2) Research needs: a. Continued research is needed on pesticide residues and their effects on human health. b. Additional research is also needed to determine the effectiveness of contouring on reducing nutrient and pesticide losses. If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 1.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 1. Runoff find Erosion Control Subtrend; 1,1 Contour Faming/Contour Strip Cropping Page 1 Environmental Effects o Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Acreage of crops farmed on the con- tour or strip cropped decreased 25% between 1964 and 1969 and continued to decrease slightly to 1976. Con- tour farming is more widely used in nonirrigated crop production than in irrigated crop production. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 _5_. Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1 . 2. Grain and Row Crops on Contour-- 1964 = 20,254,000 acres 1969 = 14,572,000 acres Strip Cropping for Erosion Control- 1964 = 16,029,000 acres 1969 = 12,447,000 acres 1. Dev. Planning & Res. Assoc., En- vironmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. 2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of Agriculture, 1969. Volume 5. Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic Summary, 1971. Productivity Land suited to contour farming techniques will have production levels comparable to conventional methods. Decreased income may re- sult from hay rotations 1n strip cropping. Land base will remain the same. 3. Yields from contour farming will bi 0.1% less than conventional methods. 4. Hay rotations 1n strip cropping can decrease profits. 3. Putrran, J., Stripe, S., and McDivitt, J., A Summary of the Linear Programming Analysis for the Maumee Level B River Basin Study, preliminary working paper. T25~pp., 1977. 4. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Control of Water Pollution from Cropland, Volume 1, Report No. ARS-H-5-1, Washington, D.C., 1975. Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re- main constant. Insecticide use will remain constant to very slight increases (.02%). 5. Fertilizer and herbicide use re- 5. Reference #3. main constant. Insecticide use increases 0.02?. 6. Fertilizer and pesticide use do 6. reference #4. not change with contouring. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Sediment Sediment loss can be reduced sub- stantially on moderate slopes, but much less on steep slopes. Reduc- tions up to 50% are possible, but average reductions will be about 35%. Contour strip cropping can re- duce sediment losses more than con- tour alone. (Note: research shows substantial loss can occur with contour watersheds with some soil types, with long slopes and/or with steep slopes.) /. Soil loss is reduced an average of 12% with contour farming practices. 8. Contour reduces soil loss to 50% on moderate slopes, but much less on steep slopes. Contour strip cropping reduces soil loss to 50% of that in contour alone. 9. Direct run-off was reduced 32% with contouring over 9-year period. 7. Reference #3. 8. Reference #4. 9. Allis, J. A. "The Story of Two Watersheds." Journal Soil and Water Conservation 7(5): 243, 195L. continued . . . ------- Exhibit 1.1. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Sediment (Continued) Nutrients Pesticides Nutrients associated with sediment will be reduced, but reductions may not be proportional to the amount of sediment lost. Pesticide reductions will be less than that for nutrients since a greater amount of pesticide 1s lost through surface-water than bound to sediment. 10. Runoff was reduced 13-16% with contour tillage. 11. Contour farmmj on slopes with loess soil showed substantial soil losses, 17-48 metric tons/ha. 12. Practices reducing direct surface runoff and erosion will reduce nutrient transport, but reduc- tions may not be proportional to sediment reductions. 13. 89;: of N lost and 95'* of F lost were associated with sediment (except for alfalfa). 14. Over 97% of N and P lost from valersheds was associated with sediment lost primarily in first 2 months after planting. 15. Major mechanism of pesticide loss (except for chlorinated hydro- carbons) is not by transport on eroded soil particles, but with surface runoff water. The con- centration on sediment is greater, but the greatest amount of loss occur with surface runoff, since there is a greater amount of water lost compared to sediment. Run- off and soil loss management practices can often reduce pes- ticide losses to some extent. 10. Wischmeier, W.H., "Relation of Field-plot Runoff to Management and Physical Factors," Soil Sci. Soc. Amer. Proc. 30: 272-277, 1966. 11. Burwell, R.E., and others, "Qual- ity of Water Discharged from Two Agricultural Watersheds in South- western Iowa," Water Resources Research 10(2): 359-365, 1974. 12. Reference *4. 13. Timmons, D.R., and Holt, R.F., "Relation of Nutrient Content of Water to Agricultural Practices and Natural Vegetation," on-going research, North Cen. Soil Cons. Res. Lab, Minnesota, 1976. 14. Burwell, R.E., and others, "Nu- trient Transport in Surface Run- off as Influenced by Soil Cover and Seasonal Periods," Soil Sci. Soc. Amer. Proc., 1975. 15. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and Swank, R.R., "Transport, Detoxi- fication, Fate, and Effects of Pesticides 1n Soil and Water En- vironments," pp. 48-78. In: Land Application of Waste Materials, Soil Cons. Society of Am., Iowa, 1976. Pollutant Changes in Media: Ground Water—Nutrients- Pesticides Loss of nutrients and pesticides through ground water will remain constant or decrease slightly. How- ever the amount of N leached 1s small compared to amount that can be lost 1n runoff and loss of pes- ticides to ground water 1s minor with proper application rates. 16. Movement of pesticides into ground water from normal appli- cation rates is an unlikely path- way of significant loss. 17. Amount of N leached Is small com- pared to the amount than can be lost in runoff. 18. As much as 89 to 90% of N lost 1s bound to sediment. 16. Reference #15. 17. Reference #4. 18. Reference #13 and #14. continued ------- Exhibit 1.1. (Continued) Environmental Research Effects Conclusions Findin9> References Pollutant Changes Erosion losses can be reduced up See research finding on sediment. in Media: Soil to 50% with average reductions of U,? (See conclusions on sediment). Pollutant Changes Pesticide losses through volatiliza- 19. Incorporation of pesticides into 19. Re.-rence #15. in Media: Air tion will decrease if they are in- soil tends to reduce losses by corporated into the soil by mechan- volatilization and wind erosion. ical means. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control SubtrerJ: 1.2 Terraces and grass waterways Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 19"5? 2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic +1 +3 conserve water; 4-turbidity; 1-species, 4-pesticides; low E Terrestrial +1 +3 topsoil saved; tspecies diversity; -(-pathways Human Health 0 0 no known effect, based on present knowledge SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/ : Terraces are more effective than contouring in reducing pollutants, but extensiveness of use is lower for terraces. Aquatic effects are decreased turbidity, increased species diversity, and decreased pesticide residues. Terrestrial effects are beneficial, resulting from increased vegetation on terraces and grass water waterways, increased diversity of wildlife, and more pathways for animal populations to travel. Valuable topsoil will also be retained. Based on present knowledge, there is no known human health effect. Decreased sediment in water might result in an unpleasant taste or odor in drinking water. (2) Research needs: a. Research is needed on the maintenance of terrace; and grassways and the effects on terrestrial life. b. Sediment standards in U.S. waters and the effect upon drinking water quality need to be determined. c. Effectiveness of soil erosion measures in the control of nutrient losses needs continued research. If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=ma,jor ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 1.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.2 Terrfces and Grass Haterways Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Terraces and grass waterways are not important in irrigated pro- duction, but are important for non- irrigated crops. However only 6* of all acres in 1969 had terraces. The acres with terraces in 1976 could have increased or decreased slightly. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- Panel 1: 1976 4 t 1985 5 t 2010 _5_ Panel 2: 1976 J , 1985 0 . 2010 _1_ 2. Cropland and pastures with ter- races in 1969 were 16,435,000 acres. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture. Volume I, 200 pp., 1S77. 2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of Agriculture. 1969, Volume 5, Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic Summary. Productivity Productivity will remain unchanged. Some land will be taken out of production by terraces and grass waterways, but will permit more extensive cropping on slopes. Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide, and in- secticide use is not expected to increase (Fertilizer could in- crease if production per cropped acre is expected to increase to compensate for land taken out of production). However, terrace practices will not require more fertilizers. Costs and maintenance increase for terraces. 3. Terraces can increase cropping intensities on slopes. U.S. Department of Agriculture/ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Control of Water Pollu- tion from Cropland. Volume I, Report No. ARS-H-5-1, Wasnington, D.C., 1975. None Available. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water - Sediment Substantial reductions in sediment and runoff can usually be expected. 4. Reduced sediment 94-985! compared to contour Loess soil on slope. 22% of total water yield was surface runoff, 78% was base flow water. 5. Runoff from terrace field had a 207. increase. 6. Terraces usually reduce runoff and sediment. 7. Contour continuous :orn on Loess soil lost 38 tons of sediment per acre compared to 1 ton - 2.9 tons of sediment per acre lost with terraces. Of total water yield, 11% was surface runoff with ter- races compared to 67% surface runoff for contour. 4. Bui-well, R.E., and others, "Qual- ity of Water Discharged from Two Agricultural Watersheds in South- western Iowa," Water Resources Research 10(2): 359-365, 1974. 5. Richardson, C.W., "Changes in Water Yield of Small Watersheds by Agricultural Practices, Iran ASAE 15(3): 591-592. 6. Reference * 3. 7. Saxon, K.E., Sporner, R.G., and Kramer, L.A., "Hydrology and Erosion of Loesslal Watersheds," ASCE Proc. Hvdr. D1v. 97(Hv 11h 1835-1851. 1971. continued . . . ------- Exhibit 1.2. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Nutrients Pesticides Reductions in nitrates and phos- phates are expected with decreased soil loss and surface runoff. Re- ductions could be substantial with some soils and cropping systems. Reduction of pesticide residues In surface water could be substantial with terrace systems, since both surface runoff and soil loss are reduced. 8. Total nitrogen lost in surface runoff with terraces was reduced 83-94% compared to contoured corn. Phosphorous lost in sediment was recuced 63-RO" In the same system. 9. As much as 97% of N and P lost frcm watersheds was associated with sediment loss, primarily in first two months after planting. 10. Pesticides are lost on sediment anc oy surface runoff. The greatest amount of pesticide loss is from surface runoff. Concen- tre tions on sediment may be higher, but a greater amount of water is lost compared to sediment. 11. Hydrocarbon and organophosphate insecticides were used on a terraced-watershed, but no de- tectable residues were found in runoff water. 8. Reference #4. 9. Burwell, R.E., Timrons, D.R., and Holt, R.F., "Nutrient Transport 1n Surface Water as Influenced by Soil Cover and Seasonal Periods," Soil Sci. Soc. Amer. Proc.. 1975. 10. Leonard, R.A., Bally, G.W., and Swank, R.R., "Transport, Detox- ification, Fate, and Effects of Pesticides in Soil and Water Environments, ' Land Application of Haste Materials. Soil Conser- vation Society of America, Iowa, 1976. 11. Reference #4. Pollutant Changes in Media: Ground Water - Nutrients Pesticides N in ground water may be re- duced, based on limited research data. Leaching of pesticides 1s not likely to result in significant loss with normal application rates. 12. N loss in ground water showed 20- 45? reductions for a terrace watershed compared to a contour watershed. 12. Reference #4. Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Substantial reductions 1n erosion can result. See research finding on sediment. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: A1r No change. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.3 Optimizing time of operations Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT IMF 2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic +1 +1 E will increase by 1985; 10-20% ^sediment; -l-turbidity Terrestrial +1 +2 twildlife rood; wildlife environment enhanced Human Health 0 0 No known human health effects SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2J: This subtrend assumes that spring plowing vs. fall plowing will increase by 1935. Aquatic effects result from 10-20% reductions in soil loss, decreased turbidity, and increased species diversity. Beneficial terrestrial results, —| besides saving topsoil, are increased winter food supply for wildlife and provision of a more structured environment en for wildlife in winter. This subtrend has no know human health effects. (2) Research needs: a. More research is needed for effectiveness of spring plowing vs. fall plowing on flat and hilly terrains. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=mc.jor ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 1.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.3 Optinrzing Time of Operations Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Extensiveness is unknown; however, based upon workshop rating in non- irrigated crop production, extensive- ness was moderate in 1976 and expected to increase to important levels by 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings Panel 1: 1976 3 , 1985 4 , 2010 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of 'rends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume 1, 200 pp.. 1977. Productivity Optimizing time to solely minimize and reduce runoff can cause pro- ductivity decreases, when bad weather prevents planting. Over- all productivity would likely remain unchanged, since some farmers would experience yield increases with optimum planting time. Resource Base Resource base is expected to remain constant. No research data available. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water - Sediment CT> Nutrients Pesticides Spring planting at optimum time can reduce sediment slightly. Residues remaining through winter, can further reduce soil loss. Estimated reductions in soil with spring plowing are 10-205!. Slight reductions to no change are expected for nutrients in surface water. Slight reductions to no change are expected for pr-.ticide residues in surface water 2. Compared to fall plowing, spring plowing can reduce soil loss by 10%. However, fall plowing can be recommended with areas having very wet springs with nearly level soils of moderately fine to fine texture. Delayed spring planting and plowing beyond optimum dates can Increase soil loss. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. En- vironmental Protection Agency, Control of Water Pollution from Cropland. Volume 1, Report No. ARS- H-5-1, Washington, D.C., 1975. Pollutant Changes in Media: Ground Water Relatively little change for nutri- ents and pesticides entering ground water. However, leaching of N and pesticides into ground water is not likely to result in significant losses with normal applications 1n most farming operations. 3. Movement of pesticides into ground water from normal applications 1n farming is an unlikely pathway of significant loss. 4. 89% of N lost and 95% of P lost were associated with sediment losses. 3. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and Swank, R.R., "Transport, detoxlfi- cati'.n, Fate, and Effects of Pes- ticides in Soil and Water Environ- ments, pp. 48-78. In: Land Appli- cation of Waste Materials. Soil Conservation Society of Amerlca, Iowa, 1976. 4. Timmcns, D.R., and Holt, R.F., "Re- lation of Nutrient Content of Water to Agricultural Practices and Natu'"1! Vegetation," on-going re- search, North Central Soil Conserv. Res. Lab, Minnesota, 1976. continued ------- Exhibit 1.3. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References 5. Over 97% of N and P lost from watersheds was associated with sedlrcent loss, primarily 1n first 2 months after planting. Burwell, R.E., and others, "Nutri- ent Transport in Surface Runoff as Influenced by Soil Cover and Seasonal Periods," Soil Sci. Soc.. Amer. Proc., 1975. Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Slight reductions to no change in erosion losses with this practice. Pollutant Changes in Media: Air No Change. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.4 Narrow rows Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 1WT 2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic 0 1 small 4- in sediment Terrestrial 0.. 1 4-erosion; conserve topsoil Human Health Q .0 No significant effect SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Use of narrow rows will have no significant ecological effect in 1985 and only minor beneficial aquatic and terrestrial effects in 2010. Decreased soil loss is the primary beneficial effect. Although herbicide and insecticide use could —' increase slightly, soil loss is also reduced slightly. Thus, overall pesticide residue concentration should not co increase and there will be no significant human health effect. (2) Research needs: a. Feasibility of cotton and other row crops planted to narrower rows needs to be more fully researched. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 1.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: i.4 Narrow Rows Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Thi: practice is currently appli- cable to corn and soybean production. Since 1973, 253! of the farm operators in one corn producing area have turned to narrow row corn. Exten- slveness of use was estimated to be moderate 1n 1976 and expected to increase to major levels in 2010. 1. Horkshop Evaluation Ratings- Panel 1: 1976 3 , 1985 4 . 2010 5 . 1. Dev. Planning and Res. Assoc., En- vironmental Implications in Agri- culture and Silviculture, 200 pp. ~ Productivity Overall productivity on a per acre basis will increase with narrow row crops. Increases of 10-205! have occurred with narrow row soybeans in field trails. However, the in- crease in yields that a farm opera- tor will realize will depend on previous crop management practices, fert.iizer use, the type of crop and climatic conditions. 3. Soybean yield increases up to 20% with narrow rows. Practice is recommended for use on soils with a soybean yield not normally above 40 bushels per acre. 4. Increased yields with soybeans in equidistant plantings. 3. "Solio-set soybeans can boost yield 20 percent," Crops and Soils 28(4): 22-23, 1976. 4. "Soybeans planted equidistantly in- crease yields," Crops and Soils, 29(3):26,1976. Resource Use More plants per acre will increase the total fertilizer requirement by 30-40% to meet the needs of the crop. Slight increases are expected in herbicide use but insecticide use will not change with this practice. 5. With narrow row corn, 96% of the farm operators increased nitrogen use by 33%. 5. Reference #2. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Narrow row crops will provide more cover for the land and will decrease soil losses slightly. Nutrient losses to surface water are not ex- pected to decrease and could increase slightly since fertilizer use will increase (however, the number of plants utilizing fertilizer nutrients increases, so the potential for In- creased nutrient loss 1s small). There will be little or no effect on pesticide losses. 6. Decrease in row spacing provides more complete cover and tests show some reduction in erosion during first 2 months of crop year. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. En- vironmental Protection Agency, Control of Water Pollution from Cropland, Volume I. Report No. ARS- H-5-1, Washington, D.C., 1975. follutant Changes 1n Media: Ground Hater No significant changes. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Soil Slight reductions In erosion will occur with more ground cover. Pollutant Changes In Media: A1r No Change. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1.5 Winter cover crops Ecological Effect Rating I] TYPE OF EFFECT 1985 ~: ffiflj Factors/Rationale Aquatic 0 1 regional areas, esp. S.E. Terrestrial 0 1 lerosion, conservation of topsoil Human Health 0 -J Paraquat use may \ -^-applicator hazards; tpesticide SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/ : There are no significant ecological effects in 1935. In 2010, minor beneficial aquatic and terrestrial effects result from small soil loss reductions. The south and southeast will benefit most from this practice. With the elimination of —• fall plowing, the need for winter cover crop is reduced. Paraquat use is expected to increase with winter cover crops o and presents a human health danger by direct contact during application or through contact in field. (2) Research needs: a. Research on interseeding with winter cover crops is needed, b. Research is needed on the increased use of paraquat, its effects, and alternatives to its use. c. Development of farm implements for quicker, more efficient spring planting operations is needed. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) wh?re l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 1.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 1. Runoff and Erosion Control Subtrend: 1,5 Winter Cover Crops Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Extfslveness of this practice is minor in 1976 and will show a slight increase by 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- Panel 1: 1976 1 , 1985 2 . 2010 _2_ Panel 2: 1976 1 , 1985 1 t 2010 J_ In South more than 90% use winter cover crops. Dev. Planning and Res. Assoc., En- vironmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture, 200 ip., 1977. Productivity Productivity values are variable. If winter cover crops are .used as a second crop, total production will increase. However winter crops in some climates will reduce soil moisture and decrease spring crop, yields. Resource Use Fertilizer use could increase signif- icantly (as much as 100 Ibs. per acre) if winter cover crops are used as a second income crop. If crops are plowed under in the spring, then the fertilizer nutrients will simply be recycled and fertilizer use will not increase. Herbicide use may increase, especially if no-till planting follows in the spring. Insecticide use will not increase. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water - Sediment Nutrients Pesticides Winter cover crops will tend to reduce sediment losses slightly. Nutrient losses to surface water will decrease slightly if fertilizer use is not increased, but total year- ly nutrient losses could increase 1f yearly fertilizer use is significantly increased. No significant change is expected. 2. Winter cover crop reduced soil con- centration 1n runoff by 18-58*. 3. No reduction in runoff with win- ter cover crop was found. 2. Wishmeier, W., "Relation of Field Plot Runoff to Management and Physical Factors," Soil Scl. Soc. Am. Proc. 30(2}:272^277, 1966. 3. Mannering, J.V. and Burwell, R.E., "Tillage Methods to Reduce Runoff and Erosion in the Corn Belt," ARS Aqr. Inf. Bulletin, #330, U.S.D.A., 1968. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Ground Water - Nutrients N leaching decreases with this practice, however more fertilizer may be used, and overall loss by leaching would probably not be significantly decreased. 4. Winter cover of oats, timothy rye reduced N leaching 40-60%. Frlnk, C.R., "The Nitrogen Cycle of a Dairy Farm," In: Relationship of Agriculture to Soil and Water Pollution, Cornell Univ., 1970. continued . . . ------- Exhibit 1.5. (Continued) p Environmental Research Effects Conclusions Findings References Pesticides No significant change is expected. However, leaching of pesticides is not likely to represent a-s1gnif-~" icant loss with normal application —i rates in most management practices. ro __ Pollutant Changes Erosion will be reduced slightly See research findings for sed- in Media: Soil iment. Pollutant Changes No change. in Media: Air ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 2. Conservation Tillage Subtrend: 2.1 No-till Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT T95F2010 Factors/Rationale (Soil-Sediment) +2 +3 isodiment; low E; tend to tspecies diversity Aquatic (Pesticide -1 -1 pesticide use t; pesticide concentrations could increase residues) ~"~~ Terrestrial 0 0 crop residues t; erosion; negative effect on non-target animals Human Health 0 0 pesticide levels still within safety limits; no effect SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Aquatic and terrestrial effects are both beneficial and adverse. Aquatic systems will benefit from reduced turbidity and increased species diversity. However, pesticide residues in surface water could potentially be increased with no-till and create adverse effects in the aquatic ecosystem. Increased pesticide use can also have adverse effects on non-target terrestrial life. Retention of crop residues and reductions in erosion will be beneficial terrestrial effects. Human health effects will not be significant since pesticide residues in surface water should still be within safety limits even if they increase slightly with no-till. (2) Research needs: a. Further research and education is needed for the optimum use of fertilizer and pesticides with no-tillage practices. b. The effect of increased pesticide use with no-till on pesticide losses to surface water should be determined. c. Continued research is needed to develop and improve pesticides that are less toxic to non-target organisms. If Rating: ± (1 to 5) vhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 2.1 Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend; 2. Conservation Tillage Subtrend: 2.1 No-tillage Croo Production Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Approximately 2.6% of all cropped land was no-till in 1977. While this practice is expected to in- crease to limited use in 2010, current projections (up to 55% of crops under no-till in 2010) seem high. Extensiveness may only be 10-20% in 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- Panel I: 1976 __!_, 1985 1 . 2010 _2_ Panel 2: 1976 1 , 1935 1 , 2010 1 . 2. No-till is estimated at 7.9 million acrjs for 1977 (2.6%). 3. Percent of cropland zero tilled may reach 55% by 2010 (10% by 1985). 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture. 200 pp.. 1977. 2. "No-till Farmer, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, March, 1977. 3. U.S. Congress, "Alternative Futures for U.S. Agriculture," Committee Print, 94th Congress, 1st Session, Sept. 1975. Productivity Productivity can remain unchanged, increase by 10% or decrease by 12%. The type of crop, climate, and soil will dictate the productivity values. Multicropping practices will Increase with no-till, resulting in Increased productivity. 4. Yield reductions of 12% with no-till alone were found. 5. No significant decrease 1n pro- ductivity. 6. 10% increase in productivity on soils with good drainage. No In- crease on soils with poor drainage. 7. Botli increased and decreased yields are shown for no till. 8. Yield response by no till is affected by crop properties, soils, climates, and pesticide effective- ness. Multicropping is enhanced by no till and could lead to pro- duction Increases. Other land, maintained under permanent cover, can be brought Into production. 4. Putman, J., Stipe, S., and McDivitt, J., A Summary of the Linear Pro- gramming Analysis for the Maunee Level B River Basin Study, pre- liminary working paper, 120 pp., 1977. 5. Johnson, H., Shrader, W.D., and Timmons, J. F., "Regional Develop- ment and Management of Land and Water Resources within Iowa," on- going research, Agric. Exp. Station, Ames, Iowa, 1976. 6. "No-till is profitable on many soil types," Crops and Soils 27(9): 7-9, 1975. 7. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. En- vironmental Protection Agency, Con- Lrol of Water Pollution from Crop- land. Volume 1, Report No. ARS-H-5- 1, Washington, D.C., 1975. 8. Reference #3. Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use in- creases by 15%, insecticide use by 11%. An estimated 5 million acres of land could be shifted to crop production with no-till and reduced till methods. Labor costs are re- duced. More water will be conserved with no-till, as much as 2 Inches per year. 9. Fertilizer and herbicide use in- creese 15%, insecticide use in- creases by 11%. 10. Fertilizer and herbicide use will Increase. An estimated 5 million acres of land could be shifted to crop production with no till and reduced tillage. Labor will de- crease. 9. Reference 14. 10. Reference 13. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 2.1. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Research Effects Conclusions Findings 11. Increased N and pesticide re- References 11. Reference #7. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water - Sediment Nutrients ro on Pesticides Sediment reductions of 50-902! will result. While large soil loss reductions -•• will tend to reduce nutrient losses, fertilizer use will increase by 15%. There will probably still tend to be reductions in total nutrient loss, but reduction will not be propor- tional to reductions in soil loss. N content of soil may also increase from weathering of crop residues. Effect of no till on pesticide losses is not well documented. Loss to sur- face water is greater when the com- pound 1s surface applied and not in- corporated in the soil, and 11% more insecticides and 15% more herbicides will be used for no-till. While re- ductions of pesticides in surface water could occur, current research does not prove this. Increased use and surface application, even with reduced soil loss with no-till, could even cause slight increases in pes- ticide losses. 12. Sediment will be reduced by 58-69%. 13. Soil loss can be reduced an aver- age of 502. Individual studies with no till show soil losses re- duced up to 985!. 14. Reductions up to 95% with no-till. Reductions will be less with in- creasing slopes and certain soils. 15. Transfer of pesticides into run- off water is greater when the com- pound is surface-applied than when it is incorporated. 16. The environmental effect of no- till and increased pesticide use is not known. No till will play an important part 1n reducing soil loss, but in contrast, laws and regulations relating to pesticide use could discourage further reduc- tions in tillage. 12. Reference #4. 13. Reference #3. 14. Reference 17. 15. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.H., and Swank, R.R., "Transport, Detox- ification, Fate, and Effects of Pesticides in Soil and Water En- vironments," pp. 48-78. In: Land Application of Waste Materials, Soil Cons. Soc. Am., Iowa, 1976. 16. Reference #3. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Ground Water Nitrates in ground water will show no change to slight increases. Pesticide loss to ground water will not be significantly changed with no-till practices. Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Erosion losses will be decreased 50-90%. See research finding on sediment. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 2.1. (Continued) Page 3 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Residues ro 01 Crop residues will increase which may result in increased N loss to the soil or available for runoff. Additionally, residues may provide a hiding place for pests and In- crease the incidence of pests. Pollutant Changes in Media: Air With some pesticides, increased volatilization will occur with surface applications. The vapor pressure, molecular weight, and other properties of a pesticide will determine the extent of va- porization. 17. Survace application subjects the pesticide to potential photo- degradation, and a greater poten- tial for volatilization. 17. Reference #15. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 2, Conservation Tillage Subtrend: 2.2 Reduced tillage Ecological Effect Rating If TYPE OF EFFECT W? M^ Factors/Rationale (Soil -sediment) +2 +3 less effective than no-till, but higher E values Aquatic (Pesticide -1 -1 potential for t pesticides in water _ residues) - Terrestrial 0 _ 0_ improved soil; tpesticide use on non-target organisms Human Health 0 0 pesticide residue levels still within safety limits SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Reduced tillage (with crop residues remaining) is less effective than no-till in reducing soil loss, but extensiveness of reduced tillage will be greater. Therefore, the intensity of ecological effects are comparable for the two practices. Sediment reductions will reduce turbidity and increase species diversity. However, the potential for increased pesticide residues in surface water could have adverse effects on the aquatic ecosystem. Crop residues remaining on the soil and decreased soil loss are beneficieal to the terrestrial system, but increased pesticide use will have adverse effects on non-target organisms. Human health effects will not be significant. (2) Research needs: a. Research should determine the optimum amounts of residue to leave on surface and to incorporate into the soil with various climatic conditions, soils, and tillage practices. b. Research is needed to determine the long term effect of conservation tillage on soil integrity. c. The effect of increased pesticide use with reduced tillage on pesticide losses to surface water needs to be investigated. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 2.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 2. Conservation Tillage Subtrend: 2.2 Reduced Tillage Crop Production Page 1 Environmental Effects ro CD Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1977, an estimated 58.8 million acres (19% of total cropped acres) will be reduced tilled. An addi- tional 40 million acres will be classified as less tilled. Less till includes chisel plowing, disc^ ing once Instead of twice, and planting in rough ground. In 2010, a total of 40% of all crop- land may be classified as reduced tilled. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings- Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 Panel 2: 1976 1985 1 ; 2010 2. Reduced till will be used on 58.8 million acres in 1977. 3. In 2010, 55% of cropland may be no tilled and 40% reduced tilled. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume I, 200 pp.. 1977. 2. "No-till Farmer", Milwaukee, Wisconsin, March 1977. 3. U.S. Congress, "Alternative Futures for U.S. Agriculture" and "Minimum Tillage," Comnittee Print 94th Congress, 1st Session, Sept. 1975. Productivity Productivity can remain unchanged, increase or decrease with reduced tillage. Hulticropping practices will tend to increase with reduced till, causing increased productivity per acre. Not all crops or soil types are suited to reduced tillage. 4. With reduced till alone, production will decrease an average of 9.5%. Witi' contour and reduced till to- gether, yields will decrease an average of 16.5%. 5. Productivity with reduced till is variable with different crops and soils. Multicropping ?ractices will increase with reduced till resulting in increased productivity for those acres. 6. Crop yields with reduced tillage are as good as, and sometimes higher than, those with plow-based systems. 4. Putman, J., Stipe, $., and McDivitt, J., A Summary of the Linear Programmjng Analysis for the Maumee Level B River Basin Study, preliminary working paper, T20pp., 1977. 5. Reference #3. 6. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Control of Water Pollution From Cropland, Volume 1, Report No. ARS-H-5-1, Washington, D.C.. 1975. Resource Use Fertilizer use will Increase slightly. Herbicide use 1s up (0.6%) and insecticide use in- creases by 8.6%. An estimated 5 million acres of land will be shifted to crop production with reduced and no-tillage methods. Labor output will decrease. Energy to plant crops decrease, but increased energy will be used in manufacture of Increased fertilizers and in- secticides. Some soil moisture will be conserved with reduced tillage. 7. Fertilizer use decreases 5%, insec- 7. Reference #4. tlside use increases by 8.6%, and herbicide use increases slightly, 0.57,. 8. Fertilizer use and pesticide use 8. Reference #5. increase with reduced tillage methods. More land may be con- verted to agriculture with reduced and no-till practices (an estimated 5 ml!1Ion acres). 9. Fertilizer and pesticide use will 9. Reference #6. Increase. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 2.2. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Sediment Nutrients Pesticides Sediment will be reduced an average of 14%. Reduced tillage Is less effective than no-till in control- ling soil loss. There will probably be reductions in total nutrient loss to surface water, but reduction will not be proportional to reductions in soil loss Effect of reduced tillage on pes- ticide loss is not well documented. Loss to surface water is greater when a pesticide 1s surface applied and total pesticide use is 9% greater for reduced till. While reductions of pesticides 1n surface water could occur, there 1s not enough research data to support this. 10. Sediment will be reduced by 14%. 11. Conservation tillage is less effective than no-till in reduc- ing soil less. 12. Transfer of pesticides into run- off water is greater when compound is surface applied. More pesti- cide residues are lost in runoff water than in soil sediment loss. 13. The environmental effects of re- uuced tillage on pesticide res- idues 1s not known. 10. Reference #4. 11. Reference #6. 12. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and Swank, R.R., "Transport, detox- ification, fate, and effects of pesticides in soil and water en- vironments," pp. 48-78. In: Land Application of Waste Materials, Soil Cons. Soc. Am., Iowa, 1976. 13. Reference #3. MD Pollutant Changes in Media: Ground Water Nitrates in ground water will show no change to slight increases. Pesticide levels in ground water will not be significantly changed with reduced tillage. Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Erosion losses decrease an estimated 14!!. Wind erosion losses will also decrease slightly. Crop residues increase,which lead to increased N available to the soil for leaching and runoff. Residues on soil also increase the incidence of pests. See research findings on sediment. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: A1r Surface applications of some pes- ticides types leads to increased volatilization losses. The vapor pressure, molecular weight, and other chemical properties of a pesticide will determine the extent of vaporization. Surface applications of pesticides subject tne pesticide to a greater potential for volatilization. 14. Reference #12. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.1 Furrow basins Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT B5F2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic -2 -3 return flow into surface water, -(-nutrients, tsediment, etc. Terrestrial -2 -3 tsalinity build-up in soil Human Health -1 ~1 4-in drinking water quality; potential for tnitrates SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Furrow basins may be the least efficient method of irrigation. Nutrients, sediment, pesticide residues in surface water tend to be greater for this irrigation method. For these reasons, aquatic, terrestrial and human health effects were ^ judged adverse. (If return flow is controlled, Subtrend 3.4, then aquatic effects would be 0.) Human health effects 0 result from decreased quality of drinking water, and potential increases in nitrates. (2) Research needs: a. The effects of salinity on human health and on animal populations needs further investigation. b. Investigation of irrigation methods and quality of return flows is needed. c. The feasibility of water renovation through filtering and desalting should be determined. d. The feasibility of diverting return flows to wildlife preserves or other productive use should be investigated. \J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 3.1. Environmental assessment cf selected agricultural trends: Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: ~.l Furrow Basins Crop Production Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness In 1969, 50? of Irrigated cropland used furrow basins. Extensiveness in 1976 is not known. Evaluation workshop ratings indicate that signif- icant improvement is not likely to occur with improved furrow basin management. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings— Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 0 ; 2010 _0_ (Reflects improvement with use of furrov basins). 2. In 1969, 19.2. million acres (50* of all irrigated crops) were irri- gated by furrow basins. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume I, 200 pp., 1977. 2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of Agriculture, 1969, Volume 5, Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic Summary, 1971. Productivity Yields from Irrigated croplands are higher than U.S. average yields. Research data showing specific yield increases contributed by furrow bas- in irrigation is not available. : 3. Yield from irrigated cropland is 115 higher in the East and 32% higher in the West than U.S. averages. 3. Reference #2. Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide, and insec- ticide use remain unchanged. Water use for furrow irrigation is 2.06 acre feet of water per acre. Ef- ficiency of furrow basin Irrigation is 35%. 4. Fui row basin use 2.06 acre feet of water per acre. 5. Efficiency of furrow basin irri- gation is 35%, less than that of sprinkler or drip irrigations. 4. Reference #2. 5. Jensen, M.E., Scientific Irrigation Scheduling for Salinity Control of Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. En- vironmental Protection Agency, 1975. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water—Sediment - Nutrients - Pesticides Certain practices must be used with furrow basins to reduce sediment and associated sediment materials (nu- trlants, pesticides). These prac- tices are as follows: 1. Use only on flat or very gentle slopes; 2. Soil should have low Infiltration rates; 3. Land grading is essential; 4. Apply water at slower rates to reduce erosion, water logging, and improve efficiency. 5. Furrow stream flow should be minimal; 6. Use of benching, diagonal, or contour furrows will reduce erosion; 7. Slopes of furrows should be very gentle; 8. Lining of furrow drops with con- crete flumes or other material reduce soil loss. 9. Irrigations should be scheduled. 6. Landgrading is essential for furrow irrigation. To avoid excessive erosion 1n irrigating with furrows, the slope of the furrows should not exceed 2%. Contour and benched fur- rows reduce erosion potential. Con- crete-lined ditches, or concrete or metal flumes should be used for conveying water down slopes to re- cess sediment losses. 7. Furrows should be used on fairly flat land with soil that has low infiltration rates. Application rates should not be too rapid and minimal furrow stream flow should be practiced. 8. Current Irrigation practices are not efficiency. Efficiency In- creases with scheduling, rate of application, and amount of water applied. With furrow basins, 1t Is difficult to measure amount of water applied. 6. Booker, L.J., Surface Irrigation, FAO, Italy, 1974: 7. Jenke, A.L., Evaluation of Salinity Created by irrigation Return Flows, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 127 pp., 1974. 8. Jensen, M.E., Scientific Irrigation Scheduling for Salinity Control of Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. En- vironmental Protection Agency. 91 pp., 1975. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 3.1. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References These practices for furrow basins will reduce sediment loss and asso- ciated nutrient losses greatly in some areas. However with some lands, it is virtually impossible to reduce sediment in furrow irrigation to the extent sediments and other suspended solids in return flow will meet water quality standards. In general, sed- iment and associated losses are greater for furrow basins than sprinkler or subsurface irrigations. 9. Although sediment yields can be reJtced in the Yahima Valley with improved soil and water applica- tion methods, it is still virtual- ly impossible to reduce erosion in the furrow irrigation system to the extent that sediment and related contaminants in return flows will meet water quality standards for that region. 9. Carl He, B.L., "Sediment Control in Yahima Valley." In: Managing Irrigated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality, Proc. of National Conf. on Managing Irrigated Agri- culture to Improve Water Quality, Colorado State Univ., 1972. Pollutant Changes in Media: Ground Water CO PO Reductions in ground water and asso- ciated pollutants can be obtained with furrow basins. However, these reductions are associated with the management practices listed above. If these practices are followed, ground water pollution from furrow irrigation will be comparable to other irrigation methods. However, research data shows they are not routinely followed, and considerable ground water pollution does occur. Improved furrow irrigation will not significantly reduce ground water pollutants without scheduling, and improved irrigation facilities. 10. The most abused practice in irri- gation is excessive water appli- cations and tends to be more serious with furrow irrigation that sprinkler irrigation schedul- ing also reduces potential ground water pollution, but 1t is not routinely practiced. (See 3.5 Irrigation Scheduling for Poten- tial Benefits.) 10. References #7 and Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Salinity tends to be greater for furrow irrigation compared to sprinkler irrigation. 11. Salinity is greater for furrow irrigation compared to sprinkler irrigation. 12. Increastd spot salinity occurs with furrow basins, because of low spots and high spots in the land. Soluble salts tend to con- centrate in the surface and cen- ter of beds causing decreased yields. 11. Salinity in Water Resources, Proc. of the 15th Annual Western Resources Conference at the Univ. of Colorado, Merriam, publishers, 1974. 12. Reference #6. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Air No Change. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop CO CO Trend: 3. Improved Water Application TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Ecological 1985 -1 -1 _0_ Effect Ratinq I/ 2010 -1 -1 ,-1 Subtrend: 3' land grading + furrow due to salinity long term effect from .2 Land grading Factors /Rationale basins = -(-pollutants t nitrate concentration SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Land grading will be used with furrow basins, thus pollutants from furrow basins will decrease in intensity. Salt accumulation will be less when land grading is used with furrow basins. There is still a long-term effect of nitrate concentrations increasing in surface waters even with land grading with furrow basins. (2) Research needs: a. The effects of salinity on human health and on animal populations needs further investigation. b. Investigation of irrigation methods and quality of return flows is needed. c. The feasibility of water renovation through filtering and desalting should be determined. d. The feasibility of diverting return flows to wildlife preserves or other productive use should be investigated. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 3.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.2 Land Grading (analyzed as an irrigation practice only) Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Land grading is Important in irri- gated crop production and will in- crease in use by 2010. Actual ex- tens Iveness in irrigated crop pro- duction is unknown. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings— Panel ?.: 1976 4 ; 1985 5 ; 2010 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. Productivity Productivity will increase with the use of land grading. The increase will depend on the crop, soil, irri- gation practices, and other crop management practices. 2. Land grading tends to reduce con- centrated areas of salinity seeps and increase crop yields. 3. Waterlogging of land decreases with land grading and increases land productivity. 2. Booker, L.G., Surface Irrigation, FAO, 1974. 3. Jenke, A.L. Evaluation of Salinity Created by Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 127 pp., 1974. Resource Use Total irrigation water 1n furrow basins can be reduced up to 40% with land grading and water measur- ing devices. Reduction of total water applied will reduce the solu- ble fertilizer requirement. Pes- ticide requirement will remain un- changed to a slight decrease. Energy and labor requirement in- crease with land grading. 4. Reductions up to 40-50% 1n water 4. Reference #3. use may occur following leveling and the installation of simple water measuring devices. Decreased water use will decrease soluble fertilizer requirements. 5. Labor requirement for furrow irri- 5. Reference #2. gation is greater witl, land grading and other management practices. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water—Sediment - Nutrients - Pesticides Elimination of excessive water appli- cation in irrigation causes decreases in soil erosion, nutrient and pes- ticide losses. 6. Excessive water In irrigation In- creases sediment losses. 7. Land grading decreases soil losses. 6. Reference #3. 7. Reference # 2. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Ground Water Slight reductions in ground water and associated pollutants will occur with lano grading. Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Concentrated salinity areas, re- sulting from high and low spots 1n Irrigated land are reduced. Soluble salts tend to concentrate 1n the surface and center of beds (irrigation). Landing grading levels the land and reduces spot salinity. 8. Reference #2. Pollutant Changes In Media: A1r No Change. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.3 Sprinklers Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 19"%? EEOi Factors/Rationale Aquatic -1 -2 Aground water supply (regional) Terrestrial -1 -1 -wildlife habitat; tsoil salinity Human Health 0 0_ potential for t nitrates is less SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Aquatic and terrestrial effects are adverse with sprinkler irrigation. Groundwater supplies can and are seriously reduced with sprinkler systems. Surface water pollution will still occur with sprinklers, but will be less for sprinklers than for furrow basins. Soil salinity will continue with sprinklers, and wildlife habitat is destroyed with sprinkler system installation (fence rows are taken out). The potential for increased nitrate concentrations in ground water is less with this practice, so human health effects will not be significant. (2) Research needs: a. The use of effluents in sprinkler irrigation should be investigated. b. Research on efficient irrigation practices should include investigation of ground water depletions. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 3.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 3. Imrpo/ed Water Application Subtrend: 3.3 Sprinklers Crop Production Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1969, 7.2 million acres (18.8% of all irrigated cropland) used sprink- ler irrigation. Extensiveness in 1976 1s not known, but estimated to have increased since 1969. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings- Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 2 . 2. Sprinkler irrigation was used on 7.2 million acres in 1969. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Sifv1_- culture, 200 pp., 1977. 2. U.S. Bureau of Census, Census of Agriculture, 1969, Volume 5, Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic Summary, 1971. Productivity Yields from irrigated cropland are higher t.han U.S. average yields. Use of highly saline water in sprink- lers can leave toxic, often lethal salt deposits on leaves and cause' sprinklers to clog. Additionally, some crops subject to fungi are aggravated by high-moisture condi- tions with sprinkler irrigation. These conditions will reduce yields. 3. Yield from irrigated cropland is 11% higher in the East and 32% higher in the West than U.S. average. 4. Highly saline waters can leave tcx c deposits on leaves. High moisture conditions of sprinkler irrigation can aggrevate diseases as fungi in some crops. 3. Reference #2. 4. Jenke, A.L., Evaluation of Salinity Created by Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 127 pp., 1974. Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicides, and insec- ticide use remain constant. Sprink- ler irrigation uses 1.39 acre feet of water per acre, considerably less than furrow irrigation. Drip irri- gation (0.5% of all irrigated acres in 1980) is even more efficient than sprinkler irrigation. Efficiency with sprinklers range from 49-58% efficiency. Initial costs and energy requirements are higher for sprinkler than furrow methods. 5. Sprinkler-irrigation uses 1.39 acre feet of water per acre. 6. Sprinkler efficiency in twelve event: ranged from 49-58% effi- ciency. Drip irrigation is the most efficient irrigation method but only 0.5% of all irrigated acres will use this practice In 198C. 5. Reference #2. 6. Jensen, M. E., Scientific Irriga- tion Scheduling for Salinity Con- trol of Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 91 pp., 1975. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water—Sediment - Nutrients - Pesticides Potential soil loss and associated pollutants can be reduced with sprinkler irrigation If certain practices are used. These practices are as follows: 1. Use on soils with high infiltra- tion rates. It can be used on sloping lands with rough and thin soils. 2. Application rate should be slow. 3. Know the amount of Irrigation w^ter applied. 4. Use irrigation scheduling for maximum efficiency and to reduce potential soil loss. 5. Do not irrigate with sprinkler on very windy days. 7. Slow application of water by sprink- ler methods reduce erosion. Sprink- ler can be used on soils with high water uptake, on sloping lands, and on rough, thin soils. Irrigation scheduling will improve sprinkler efficiency and reduce erosion po- tential and surface runoff. 8. Sprinkler systems tend to reduce excessive water applications, thus reducing runoff potential. It 1s easier to measure amount of water applied by sprinkler methods. 7. Reference #4. 8. Reference #6. Continued ------- Exhibit 3.3. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Ground Water CO Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Pollutant Changes in Media: Air Conclusions Research Findings References In general surface runoff, soil loss and associated pollutants are less for sprinkler irrigation compared to furrow. While ground water pollutants tend to be less with sprinkler irrigation compared to furrow, potential pollu- tants can be further reduced with irrigation scheduling, and other efficiency practices (See 3.5 Irri- gation scheduling for details). Sprinkler irrigation cannot be re- lied upon to significantly reduce ground pollutants without these practices. 9. Traditional methods to improve irrigation management will not result in futther changes in irrigation management unless water costs increase substantial- ly. Over the past 20 years, irri- gation efficiency has not increased. Improvement of salinity problems, anc1 ground water problems will de- pend upon irrigation scheduling ano improved irrigation facili- ties. 9. Reference # 6. Salinity tends to be slightly less for sprinkler irrigation compared to furrow. However, each year productive agriculture land is lost to salinity regardless of irrigation method. 10. Salinity is less for sprinkler irrigation compared to furrow irrigation. 11. Each year productive agriculture land is lost to salinity. Crop production is reducea on one- quarter of the irrigated acreage in Western U.S. 10. Salinity in Water Resources. Proc. of the 15th Annual Western Re- sources Conf. at the Univ. of Colo. Merriam publishers, 1974. 11. Law, J.P., and others, "The need for implementing irrigation return flow quality control." In: Manag- ing Irrigated Agriculture to Im- prove Water Quality, Proc. of the Nat. Conf. on Managing Irrigated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality, 1972. No significant changes will result. On windy days, water loss can occur, but will not adversely affect the air. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.4 Recycling & controlling tail water Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT T§55"2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic +2 +3 4-water requirements; 4-pollutants in water Terrestrial -1 -1 disposal of tailwater pollutants; soil salinity not affected Human Health +1 -+l assumes proper processing, further water degradation will not occur SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Aquatic effects will be beneficial with control of tailwater. Irrigation water requirements will be reduced and pollutants in surface water will be decreased. Terrestrial effects are adverse since soil salinity will not be w significantly affected with this practice, and terrestrial pollutants may potentially be increased with the disposal 00 of tailwater pollutants. Minor beneficial human health effects will result with proper processing of tailwater. (2) Research needs: a. Continued research is needed on the proper treatment of tailwater and on the disposal of tailwater and subsurface drainage wastes. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) hhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 3.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.4 Recycling and Controlling Tailwater Crop Production Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Extensiveness 1n 1976 is not known. However, based on workshop rating, this practice will increase to im- portant levels by 2010. Control of the total Irrigation return flow (surface tailwater and subsurface drainage waters) will be considered in this subtrend. 1. Evaluation Workshop Rating- Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 1. Cev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. Productivity Tailwate" will have increased concentrations of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides; how- ever, productivity will not be significantly changed with proper treatment of recycled tailwater. 2. Concentration of salt, and N03-N is greatly increased in tailwater. However, at times the chemical quality of subsurface drainage water is better than that of the irrigation water diverted at fur- ther points down river for irri- gation. 3. Concantration of salts and nutri- ents is several times greater in ground water than in initial Irri- gation water. 4. Concentration of salts in return flow can be greatly increased. 2. Carter, D.L., "Irrigation return flows in southern Idaho," pp. 47- 53. In: Managing Irrigated Agri- culture to Improve Water Quality, Proc. of Nat. Conf. on Managing Irrigated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality, 1972. 3. Oenke, A.L., Evaluation of Salinity Created by Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 127 pp., 1974. 4. Salinity in Water Resources, Proc. of the 15th Annual Western Re- sources Conf. at the Univ. of Colorado, MerHman publi$hers, 1973. Resource Use Fertilizer, insecticide, and her- bicide use remains constant. Water use can be decreased as much as 30% with reuse of return flows 1n Irri- gation. 5. About 3556 of applied irrigation 5. Reference #3. water is return flow. 6. 50^ of to*.al input water becomes 6. Reference #2. subsurface drainage water. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water—Sediment - Nutrients - Pesticides Sediment, and associated nutrients will be trapped if surface water is collected. This reduces sediment and pollutant loadings of rivers 1f the water is not returned to the rivers. Surface runoff water qual- ity will have increased sediment, but salt concentration does not dif- fer from Initial Irrigation water. 7. Surface runoff quality did not dif- fer from that of the irrigation water except for sediment concen- tration. 8. Nutrients, pesticides, sediment, and salts will be c nfined to the field by control of tailwater. 7. Reference #2. 8. Reference # 3. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Ground Water Cont"il of ground water can signif- icantly decrease the pollutant loadings of a river. The ground water will have high salt concen- trations. Before this water can be 9. Subsurface drainage water should be treated, diluted, or diverted to sinks, and settling basins before reuse. 9. Reference #3. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 3.4. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Ground Water (Continued) Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Pollutant Changes in Media: Air Conclusions diverted back to the river or to agriculture, it should be diluted with large amounts of incoming water, or diverted to sinks or settling basins. This will re- duce sediment and salt concentra- tions to reasonable limits. Soil salinity will not be affected by recycling and controlling tall- water. No Change. Research Findings 10. Recovered drainage waters can readily be returned to the irriga- t^on supply after settling, treat- ment for pollutant removal, or diluted to minimize the detri- mental effects. References 10. Law, J.P. and others, "The need for implementing irrigation re- turn flow quality control," pp. 1-17. In: Managing Irrigated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality, Proc. of Nat. Conf. on Managing Irrigated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality, 1972. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 3. improved Water Application TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Ecological 1985 +1 0 0 Effect Rating I/ 2010 +1 +1 0 Subtrend: 3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency Factors/Rationale -(•water use; ^-pollutants small 4- soil salinity SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Aquatic effects will be beneficial in 1985 a-nd 2010 from reductions in water use, and small reductions in surface water pollutants. Minor beneficial terrestrial effects may result in 2010 with samll decreases in soil salinity. Human health will not be significantly affected with this practice. (2) Research needs: a. Continued research is needed on irrigation scheduling and other irrigation efficiency practices. _!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 3.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 3. Improved Water Application Subtrend: 3.5 Irrigation Scheduling and Efficiency Crop Production Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1974, less than 15! of all irri- gated cropland had professional irrigation scheduling. Irrigation scheduling will increase greatly by 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- Panel 2: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 _5 2. 382,000 acres of irrigated crop- land used some professional irrigation scheduling in 1974. 1. Oev. Planning & Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture, 200 pp., 1977. 2. Jensen, M.E., Scientific Irrigation Scheduling for Salinity Control of Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. En- vironmental Protection Agency, 91 pp., 1975. Productivity Scheduling can increase crop yields significantly. 3. Major benefits to the farm operator witn irrigation scheduling would be improved crop yields and quality. 4. Crop yields are expected to in- ert ise with irrigation scheduling. 3. Reference #2. 4. Jenke, A. L., Evaluation of Salin- ity Created by Irrigation Return Flows, U.S. Environmental Protec- tion Agency, 127 pp., 1974. Resource Use Fertilizer use would decrease with irrigation scheduling. Herbicide and insecticide use will remain con- stant. Water use will decrease 10% with scheduling and up to an addi- tional 20? with lining of irrigation conveyance ditches. 5. Irrigation efficiencies will Improve an average of 10% with scheduling. 6. Proper irrigation scheduling could increase water effici-icy 10-15%. Estimated water losses by canal seepage range from 13-48% with an estimated average of 20%. 7. Lining on canals reduce seepage losses from 5-10% of total water to 1-2%. Research data shows ex- cessive irrigation by many farmers. 5. Reference #2. 6. Reference #4. 7. Skogerboe, G.V. and Walker, W.R., "Salinity control measures in the Grand Valley," pp. 123-136. In: Managing Irrigated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality, Proc. of Nat. Conf. on Managing Irrigated -gric. to Improve Water Quality, 1972. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water—Sediment - Nutrients - Pesticides Surface runoff will decrease causing decreases in sediment and asso- ciated nutrients. With some soils and irrigation techniques, reductions can be significant. Salt concentration in surface runoff is comparable to original irrigation water. Thus, no reductions will re- sult for salts. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 3.5. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes in Media: Ground Water CO Salt concentrations In ground water can be reduced significantly 1f con- veyance losses are eliminated. With irrigation systems that allow even application, scheduling can reduce salt loads in the return flow. Other irrigation systems may not show a decrease of salts in the return flow. 8. Salt concentrations in return flows can be reduced with lining of con- veyance canals. 9. Salt concen .rations in return flows may or may not be reduced significantly, depending on type of irrigation system and soil type. Improved irrigation facil- ities are needed with scheduling 1n some areas. 8. Reference 17. 9. Reference #2. Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Soil salinity decreases with Irriga- tion scheduling. Water use for leaching of salts is included 1iv scheduling. Application rates and leaching times are scheduled for maximum salt leaching. 10. Irrigation efficiency includes water for leaching to control soil salinity. Leaching and appli- cation rates are scheduled for maximum efficiency. With more frequent applications, salt con- centrations are not as likely to build up to dangerous levels in the soil. 10. Reference 12, Reference 14. Pollutant Changes in Media: Air No Change. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.1 Weather resistance TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Ecological 1955 0 0 0 Effect Rating I/ 2010 0 0 0 Factors/Rationale SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: The effect is not expected to be significant on any of the ecosystems. Some marginal land will be brought into production; on the other hand, multicropping can be expected to increase slightly. These will tend to cancel each other out in the overall impact on runoff. (2) Research needs: a. Research Involving these improvements should include investigation of environmental impacts. _!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 4.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.1 Weather resistance Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Gradual improvements are being made with weather resistance In crops, but no major developments are expected for the next decade, at least. Re- search 1s on-going, but hampered by lack of additional research money. 1. Evaluation Workshop ratings Panel 1: 1976 4 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 Panel 2: 1976 I ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1 2. Research for weather resistant crops continues. Progress has been madfc, but no major developments are exptcted for another decade. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Implications of Trends in Agri- culture and Silviculture, Vol. 1, 200, pages, 1977. National Academy of Sciences, Climate and Food, Washington, D.C., 1976 Productivity Productivity could be greatly In- creased with weather resistance. Plants that can withstand severe drought or prolonged cold periods would provide the farmer with multl- cropping opportunities with sus- tained yields. Short-growing sea- son plants could be used for cli- mates that currently have summers too short for crops. High yielding, short-season soybeans 3. Reference tZ thai could grow further north in- creesed Minnesotas soybean production from 2% to 8% of U.S. total. In 1975, dro.ght tolerant corn hybrids, main- tained yields during severe drought. Semi dwarf wheat has improved water ef- ficiency which maintains yields under stress. 4. Potential productivity will Increase 4. greatly with development of climate resistant crops. National Academy of Sciences - World Food and Nutrition Study, Hash.,D.C., Resource Use Until commercial use of weather resistance crops increases, there will be no increase in resource use. By 2010 however, fertilizer and pesticide use could increase 50% or more, with year round cropping. It 1s doubtful at this time 1f year round cropping will occur in most areas. Rather crops will be de- veloped for normal cropping season which are more resistant to weather stresses. More land 1n unfavorable climates could be brought Into agriculture production by 2010 Pollutant changes 1n Media Pollutant changes are difficult to evaluate. With single cropping, there will be no change. Should multicropplng Increase significantly by 2010, pollutants would also In- crease significantly. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.2 Salt resistance Ecological Effect Rating _!/ TYPE OF EFFECT TM52010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic 0 -1 Disruption of brackish coastline Terrestrial 0 -1 Loss of habitats on saline soils Human Health 0 0 SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: No significant effects are expected by 1985. Adverse effects of a minor nature can be anticipated on the aquatic and terrestrial systems by 2010. Ths use of salt resistance plants and seed will permit cropping on the brackish coastline. The resulting drainage will affect the brackish waters. Returning saline land to production will reduce. (2) Research needs: a. Environmental implications should be made a part of ongoing-research in this area. _!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 4.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.2 !.alt resistance Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Current research data shows prog- ress in breeding plants that are resistant to high concentrations of salt and that these plants will be used commercially in the future. Widespread commercial use 1s still several years away. 1. Evaluation workshop ratings Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1 . Panel ?.: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 _; 2010 5 . 2. Research with salt resistant strains of barley is promising. 3. Crop production based on sea- water or other saline sources is an attainable goal. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture, Vol. I, 200 pages, 1977. "Salt tolerant plants sought, Crops and Soils,27(7) 19-20, 1975. Rush, D.W., Norlyn, J.D., and Ep- stein, E. "Salt-resistant crops coming," Crops and Soils, 29(3): 7-9, 1976. Productivity Productivity in saline areas would increase, especially where salinity build-up reduces crop yields or has taken land out of agriculture pro- duction. Currently technology is developing salt resistant crops but yield results show that these crops are not feasible for commercial use at this time. 4. First year trials of salt-resistant barley crops grown under very un- favorable conditions were 21% of y1 'Id from irrigated barley. Re- search people found these results very encouraging. 4. Reference if3 Resource Use Fertilizer and pesticide use would remain constant. Increased land could be brought into production In highly saline areas. Pollutant Change 1n Media No change ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.3 Production efficiency Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 19E3 20lO Factors/Rationale Aquatic 0 -1 Increased fertilizer use Terrestrial 0 0_ Assumes no increase in land cropped Human Health 0 0 SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/; No significant effects are expected by 1985. Increased fertilizer requirements can expect to have adverse effects —i of a minor nature on the aquatic system by 2010. -P=. oo (2) Research needs: a. Environmental implications should be made a part of ongoing research in this area. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 4.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 4. Inprovement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.3 Production efficiency Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References -pa UD Extensiveness Substantial improvements In agri- cultural production efficiency have been made during the past two decades. While research will continue to im- prove production efficiency, it is doubtful if comparable advances can be obtained from such technology improvements in the short-run future. Further significant yield increases will require greater photosynthetic efficiency. Research continues on photosynthesis process in plants. Factors that control photosynthesis are not well understood and until these factors are found, progress in production efficiency will be slow. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings Panel 1: 1976 _"_; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 . Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 2 . 2. Great gains have been obtained with crop production efficiency in last decades. It is doubtful if compar- able advances can be obtained from technology improvements in the short- term future. 3. Impressive yield increases in agri- culture in past 25 years came from a combination of new varieties, high rati s of fertilization, high plant populations, disease resistance, and control of insects and weeds. Fur- ther significant yield increases will require photosynthetic efficiency control. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages, 1977. National Academy of Sciences, Agricultural Production Efficiency, Washington, D. C., 1975. National Academy of Sciences. World Food and Nutrition Study. Washington, D.C., 1975. Productivity Further productivity increases will be the result of biochemical or genetic control of plants photo- synthesis process. Yields and en- hanced crop quality will result from improved production efficiency. 4. Control of photosynthesis in plants is the key to increased yields and food quality. Reference #3 Pollutant Changes in Media No change ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.4 Disease, insect, and nematode resistant crops Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT IMF 2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic +2 +4 Decrease in pesticide use Terrestrial +1 +3 Human Health +1 +2 Less injuries associated with application SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Beneficial effects are expected to stem primarily from the decrease in pesticide use. The greatest benefits are ex- pected to occur in the aquatic systems with less pesticide runoff in surface waters. The reduction in pesticide use would reduce the likelihood of injuries associated with explication and reentry. (2) Research needs: a. Ongoing research should include investigations of the environmental impacts. If Rating: ± (1 to 5) vhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 4.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.4- Disease, insect, and nematode resistant crops Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Approximately 75* of all crop- land is planted with seed va- rieties that show resistance to some disease or insect. Research continues to develop more resistant crops to replace these with even more resistant varieties. By 2010, some crops will be very resistant to cer- tain diseases and pests. 1. Evaluation Uorkshop Ratings 1. Panel 1: 1976 _4_; 1985 4 ; 2010 _5_. 2. Seventy-five percent of U.S. crop- land utilities resistant varieties 2. (insect) developed during past 50 years. Research continues with al- most all crop varieties to find or improve resistance to insects. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Vol. 1. 200 pages, 1977. National Academy of Sciences, Contemporary Pest Control Prac- tices anc1 Prospects, Volume I, Washington, D. C., 1975. Productivity Productivity can Increase sub- stantially with crops having in- bred resistant to disease and Insects. 3. Under greenbug attack, a new sorghum variety had yields up to seven times higher than susceptible sorghum var- ieties. Seeds will be available 1n 1977 or 1978. 4. Current research with corn strains resistant to the corn borer looks very promising. 5. A new millet variety is resistant to leaf spot disease and has 7-205! more foliage than other millet va- rieties. Yields were higher for a variety of alfalfa resistant to stem nematodes, downy mildew, and bac- terial wilt. 6. Disease resistant crops have lead tD increjsed crop yields. 3. "23 new sorghum breeding lines from Texas," Crops and Soils 29(7): 23, 19777 4. Pardee, W. D., and Gracen, V. E., "Crops fight back, bred-1n in- sect resistance," Crops and Soils 28(7): 8-9, 1976. 5. "Varieties, Crops and Soils 28(7): 23,19767 6. National Academy of Sciences, World Food and Nutrition Study, :,'ashington, D. C., 1975. Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use remains unchanged. Insecti- cide use will decrease as more insect disease resistant crop varieties are developed. Crop resistance 1s generally insuf- ficient to control insects and supplemental chemicals may have to be used, but fewer treat- ments are needed. There are some exceptions where crops are entirely resistant to In- sects. Pesticide cost would be reduced. Supolemental applications of chem- icals may need to be used with in- sect resistant crops, but fewer treatments are needed. Some crops seen to be entirely disease resist- ant and do not require supplemental chemical pesticide applications. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Control of Uater Pollution from £rvpland, Vol. 1. Report No.ARS. H-5-1, Washington. D.C., 1975. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 4.4. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes in Media en Pesticide residues in water, soil, and air will be reduced as more insect resistance crops are developed. De- crease will be gradual since, development of these crops will be slowly evolving. By 2010, there could be substan- tial reductions in pesticide residues 1n the environment. Soil and nutrient losses will tend to remain unchanged. If widespread yield increases occur, over the crop yields now obtained with chemical pesticides, soil loss and nutrient loss will decrease. This decrease is a result of high yielding crops reducing surface run-off and ground water losses. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls Subtrend: 5.1 & 5.2 Scouting-surface & remote sensing scouting Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 195?2010 " Factors/Rationale Aquatic +1 +3 Reduced pesticide use Terrestrial +1 +3 Reduced pesticide use Human Health 0_ +1 Reduced reentry problems SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Beneficial effects are expected to stem primarily from reductions in pesticide use. The effects would be only minor in 1935. By 2010, significant effects would occur in the aquatic and terrestrial systems. (2) Research needs: _!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 5.1 & 5.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls Subtrends: 5.1 & 5.2. Scouting-surface and remote sensing scouting p Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Use of scouting to identify specific insect pests areas and predict which crop areas need chemical treatment is very limited in 1976. Diag- nostic and predictive methods are not currently reliable for pest control. By the time an area has been identified as having a potential pest prob- lem, damage has often, already occurred. Much research and public education is needed before this practice will be- come a potential method to re- duce chemical pesticides. C71 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings Surface scouting Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 5 . Remote sensing scouting Panel 1: 1976 _T_; 1985 1 ; 2010 2 . 2. With present state of art, it is im- possible to identify and predict which field or area may or may not be damaged by insects. Often fields cannot be selected until insect danage has already occurred. Cur- rently pilot scouting programs exist in Iowa and Illinois, which may prove successful. 3: ,-armers often appear to be unable or unwilling to base their pest co.itrol decisions on complex calcu- lations of the relationships between pe;t infestations, yield losses, and pesticide applications. They adopt pe>t control program - that tend to require regular and heavy use of pesticides. Considerable research is needed to accurately predict pesticide losses. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1977. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Farmers Pesticide Use Decisions and Attitudes on Alternation Crop Protection Methods. 158 pages. 1974. National Academy of Sciences, Volume 1, Contemporary Pest Control Practices and Pros- pects, Wash., D.C. 1975. Productivity Very limited research exists for the success of scouting programs to successfully pre- dict which areas need to be treated with pesticides. Areas can show sustained crop yields without use of pesticides. Pilot scouting programs made surveys for several insects, found these to be economic thresholds, and no control was recom- mended or applied. Crop yields are assumed to be comparable to treated areas. Sometimes damage has al- ready occurred by the time a pest problem is Identified, leading to decreased yields. Some yield increases have been attributed to decreased use of hydrocarbon pesticides. 4. Pilot scouting programs determined insect levels to be below the econ- omic threshold, and no control was recommended or applied. Acres with decreased hydrocarbon use since 1966 have shown Increased yields, thus decrease in use did not adversely affect yields. Attributing the yield Increases to decreased hydrocarbon use is questionable. 5. Crop yields were shown to Increase with decreased hy.-i-ocarbon use. Reference #2. Casey, 0. E., Lacewell, R.D., and Sterling W., "An example of econ- omically feasible opportunities for reducing pesticide use in commerical agriculture," J. of Environ Quality 4(1): 60-64TT975. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 5.1 & 5.2. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References en en Resource Use Fertilizer use and herbicide use remain unchanged. It has been determined that probably all her- bicide applications are needed for effective weed control. In some areas, an estimated 40% of all insecticides applied are not needed in Illinois and 50% of all chlorinated hydrocarbons were not needed. 40% of all acres in Illinois treated with insecticides did not need treat- ment. At least 50% of all acres 1n Iowa and Illinois treated with chlor- inated hyd ocarbons did not need treatment. Use of herbicides was needed and profitable on all acres treated. 6. Reference #2 Pollutant Changes In Media Pesticide residues in water, soil, and air could greatly be reduced with reliable scouting use. How- ever, large reductions are not likely to be seen until scouting can prove itself as a control method. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop en CTi Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls Ecological Effect lYPt Oh thhbCI 1985 Aquatic +1 Terrestrial +1 Human Health 0 Rating I/ 2010 +4 +4 -+2 Subtrend : Target oriented Reduced effect on __ — 5.3 Integrated controls Factors/Rationale non-target organisms SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Pesticide use would be limited for the most part to target-organisms. This pesticide reduction would enhance both the aquatic and terrestrial systems through increased species diversity. (2) Research needs: a. Research and developments in this area need to be followed up with education in the benefits and application of these controls. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) vhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 5.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls Subtrend: 5.3, Integrated controls Crop Production Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Successful development of integrated controls depends on natural pest populations control, along with a combination of techniques that con- tribute to suppression, cultural methods, pest-specific diseases, resistant crop varieties, sterile insects, attractants, use of preda- tors, or chemical pesticides as needed. Some of these methods are in thei>- infancy and are not yet widely accepted or feasible to use. However, contemporary pesticide practices have proved effective to the farmer. Until those other prac- tices are available for use and con- vincing evidence shows they offer more protection per unit of cost than current pest control methods, fanners will not adopt integrated controls. By 2010 integrated con- trols will probably be widely ac- cepted and used. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings: Panel 1: 1976 J_; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 . Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 . 2. Current chenr.cal pest control methods are effective. Farmers will not adopt integrated control methods until they become feasible for commercial use and can be shown to be as effective per unit of cost as current control methods. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1977. 2. National Academy of Sciences, Vol- ume 1, Contemporary Pest Control Practices and Prospects, Washing- ton, D.C., 1975. Productivity Productivity of integrated pest control will compare to produc- tivity from chemical pest control methods. For example, yield in- creases occur with some insect re- sistant crops and with decreased use of chlorinated hydrocarbons. 3. Yields increase with some insect and 3. disease resistant crops. 4. Crop yields were shown to increase 4. with decreased chlorinated hydro carbon ur.e. 5. Acres with decreased chlorinated 5. hydrocarbon use since 1966, showed yield increases, showing decrease in use did not adversely affect yields. Attributing yield increase to decreased use 1i questionable. See References for 7.4, Disease and insect resistant crops - productivity. Casey, J. E., Lacewell, R.D., and Sterling, W. "An example of econ- omically feasible opportunities *or reducing pesticide use in com- mercial agriculture," J. of Environ. Quality 4(l):60-64, 1975. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Fa""iers Pesticide Use Decisions and Attitudes on Alternative Crop Pro- ted on Methods, 158 pages, 1974. Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re- main constant. Insecticide use would be greatly decreased. Cost could increase for some practices associated with Integrated pest control. Continued ------- en co Exhibit 5.3. (Continued) p Environmental Effects Pollutant Changes 1n Media Conclusions Pesticide residues in water, soil, and air will oe significantly re- duced. Reductions will not be seen until integrated controls become feasible. Research Findings References ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 6. Development of New Biological S Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.1-6.5 Development of new chemical pesticides Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 19HF2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic +1 +3 Beneficial effects of bio-degradable pesticides Terrestrial +1 +2 Greater species diversity Human Health +1 +2 Acute toxicity decreased SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2J : Beneficial effects can be expected primarily from anticipated developments in and use of bio-degradable pesticides which are less toxic. This will enhance both the aquatic and terrestrial systems by increasing species diversity. Acute toxicity problems will be reduced in pesticide application. Also, overall pesticide use is expected to decrease. Potential problems can be foreseen in the development of systems and micro-encapsulated formulations. (2) Research needs: a. Research is needed in the environmental effects of these pesticides as they are developed including a study of systemic residues and the nature of degradation products. b. Research is also needed on biomagnification of the food chain and effects of pesticides in the decomposing food chain. If Rating: ± (1 to 5) v;here l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 6.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.1 Micro-encapsulated Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Research has only begun on micro- encapsulation of pesticides. In- sufficient attention has been given to the basic release mechanisms. This is a promising area and may be used in future. 1. Evaluation Workshop Rating— Panel 1: 1976 _1_; 1985 2 ; 2010 _3_ 2. Research has only begun on micro- encapsulation of pesticides. Fur- ther research is needed to deter- mine feasibility of use. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Funds in Agriculture and Silviculture. Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. 2. National Academy of Sciences, Volume 1, Contemporary Pest Con- trol Practices and Prospects. Washington, D.C., 1975. Productivity Productivity would be comparable to productivity from conventional chemical pesticide control. Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re- main constant. Insecticide use would decrease since efficiency is increased and fewer applica- tions are needed. Pollutant Changes in Media: Pesticide residues in water would be decreased since use decreases. Residues in air would also de- crease since mlcroencapsulatlon reduces loss through drift and volatilization. Persistence in soil may be increased with slow release pesticides. ------- Exhibit 6.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.2 Systemic pesticides Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Systemic pesticides are ab- sorbed and translocated through the plant to which they are ap- plied. They show promise, but more research is needed to de- termine the residue levels re- maining in the plants at har- vest time. Limitations and benefits of systemic pesti- cides have yet to be deter- mined. 1. Evaluation Horkshop Ratings: Panel 1: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 2. More research is needed to deter- mine residue levels remaining 1n plants at harvest time. Limita- tions and potential benefits of this practice need to be further researched. 2. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume 1, 200 pages, National Academy of Sciences. Vplume 1, Contemporary Pest Control Practices and"Prospects, Washington, D.C., 1975. Productivity Productivity is expected to remain constant. Resource Use Resource use will remain con- stant (Note: data is not avail- able for pesticide use with systemic pesticides, but is assumed to remain unchanged. Pollutant Changes in Media Change 1n pesticide residue levels in water, soil, and air is unknown, but assumed not to increase. A potential exists for increased pesti- cide residues in crops. More research 1s needed to deter- mine if dangerous residue levels can result. ------- Exhibit 6.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.3 Surfactants for herbicides Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Much research is needed be- fore surfactants are avail- able for commercial use. Potential is high for this development and commercial use is anticipated for sur- factants. 1. Evaluation Workshop Rating Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 3 2. Research is needed for develop- ment of surfactants, but po- tential is high for surfactants. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume 1, 200 pages. 197T. National Academy of Sciences, Volume 1, Contemporary Pest Control Practices and Prosp'ects. Washington, D. C., 1975. Productivity Productivity will remain un- changed or increase slightly. Increase would be due to In- creased efficiency of the herbicides. Resource Use Fertilizer and insecticide use remain constant. Herbi- cide use could decrease as much as 50%. Cost of herbi- cide treatment would be reduced. 3. He-bidde requirement could be reduced by 50*. 3. Reference #2 Pollutant Changes in Media Herbicide losses Into water, soil, and air will be signi- ficantly decreased. Herbicides account for 46? of total pesticides used by far- mers 1n 1971. Surfactants could reduce this use by as much as 50%. 4. Reference #2 ------- Exhibit 6.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.4 Biodegradable Pesticides I/ Environmental Effects en Co Productivity Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Selective less toxic, biodegradable pesticides can and are being devel- oped through research, and offers a solution to persistent pesticides as DDT, and to the toxic biodegradable pesticides that are currently avail- able. Extensiveness will increase to 2010 when several selective, less toxic, biodegradable pesticides will be available. Cost of the pesticides is high in 1976 which decreases their use by farmers. Cost reductions will lead to wider use of the compounds. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 . 2. Selective biodegradable pesticides are being developed. They have a high toxicity to insects, yet are relatively safe to humans and high- er animals. Two examples of these "new" pesticides are emphasized: a. Selectivity of parathion is be- ing improved. These retain high toxicity to pests, yet are safe to man and higher animals. b. The biodegradability of DDT is being improved. The new analog will be persistent but not stored in the lipids of animals or con- centrated in food chains. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends In Agriculture and Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. 2. National Academy of Sciences, Pest Control Strategies of the Future, Washington, D.C., 1972. Productivity remains unchanged. No research data available. Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide , and insec- ticide use will remain unchanged. Cost of selective non-toxic biodegrad- able pesticides are higher because they are not as extensively used as more toxic pesticides. Research costs to develop these are also high, leading to increased pesticide cost. 3. Cost of newer biodegradable pes- ticides can be considerably higher. 3. Fox, A.S., "Economic consequences of restricting or banning the use of pesticides," pp. 34-49. In: Economic Research on Pesticides for Policy Decision Making, U.S. Dept. of Agric./Economic Research Service, Washington, D.C., 1971. Pollutant Change Pesticide residues in water, soil, in Media: and water remain constant. However, some biodegraJjble pesticides are more toxic to humans and animals. Selection and the use of less toxic biodegradable pesticides will reduce hazards to humans and animals. 4. Certain biodegradable pesticides, such as parathion, are highly toxic to animals. Several deaths have been caused to applicators of the pesticide. Hoffman, C.H., "Restricting the use of insectiddes-what are the altern- •.tives?" pp. 14-21. In: Economic Research on Pesticides for Policy Decision Making, U.S. Dept. of Agric./Economic Research Service, Washington, D.C., 1971. I/ Note: Discussion 1s limited to the development of newer selective, less toxic biodegradable pesticides. There are currently bio-degradable pesticides used widely in the U.S. However, these compounds are very toxic to humans and are often considered undesirable for use. ------- Exhibit 6.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.5 Alternative Formulations Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness No accurate estimates can be made of the number of acres on which altern- ative formulations are being used. The workshop panel expect the use to be significant by 2010. 1. Extensiveness ratings assigned by the Crop Production Panel (Work- shop) are as follows: 1976 1985 2010 Development Planning and Research Associates, Environmental Implica- tions of Trends in Agriculture aTid" Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. Productivity The effectiveness of this practice would be reflected in increased crop yields. The use of a series of pesticides and mixtures which differ in their effectiveness in controlling pests reduces the chance of a species that is tolerant to a specific pes- ticide from becoming dominant. 2. National Academy of Sciences, Pest Control Strategies of the Future, Washington, D.C., 1972. Resource Use The overall pesticide requirement would not be significantly changed although minor decreases could be expected as a result of increased effectiveness. Pollutant Change in Hedia- Slight reductions of residues 1n the soil and water can be expected. The rotation of pesticides reduces the chance of an accumulation of pesticide residues 1n the soil. 3. Reference #2. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 6. Development of New Biological S Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.6-6.9 Development of new biological pesticides Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT IMS 2UIT) Factors/Rationale Aquatic +1 +3 ----- Terrestrial +1 +3 ________.; Human Health +1 +3 SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects ___/: Minor effects are expected by 1985 on .the ecological system. Depending on the extensiveness of these developments, the effects are expected, to be of moderate importance by 2010. Developments are anticipated to have regional application. (2) Research needs: a. Research is needed principally in developments related to the use of predators and parasites and involve the effect of these agents on non-target organisms and their effects after the prey has been eradicated. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or ~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 6.6 & 6.7. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.6 & 6.7. Juvenile Hormones and Phermones Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Extensiveness is limited in 1976. Research is promising, but com- mercial use may be 10 years away. CTl 1. Evaluation Workshop Rating-- Juvenile Hormones ; 1985 _2_; 2010 _4_ Panel 1: 1976 Pheromones Panel 1: 1976 _!__; 1985 2 ; 2010 _4_ 2. Research is on-going and looks promising. Commercial use is still a few years away. An ex- perimental permit was granted 1n 1974 for experimental use of . Altnsid, a compound designed to interfere with pest metabolism. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc., Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. 2. National Academy of Sciences, Volume 1, Contemporary Pest Con- trol Practices and Prospects. Washington, D.C., 1975. Productivity Productivity resulting from the use of these compounds 1s unknown. If they are to be widely used, pro- ductivity must be comparable to yields from chemical pest control methods. Large scale field tests are needed to determine how effec- tive these compounds are 1n sustain- ing yields. Potentially, productivity could Increase if a pest is eradicated or if pesticide residues in soil decrease. 3. Larqe scale field tests are needed to determine if these compounds can compete with chemical pes- tic'des. 3. Reference 12. Resource Use Fertilizer and herbicide use re- main constant. Insecticide use may not be greatly decreased because juvenile hormones and pheromones are usually specific for one pest. If more than one pest is present in one area, another insecticide may have to be applied. More applica- tions of hormones and pheromones may have to be applied to effectively control a pest. Cost per unit of control with these compounds has not been determined. Pollutant Changes in Media: Insecticide residues in soil, water, and »ir may remain constant or de- crease. Residues will still be pres- ent with hormones and pheromones. However these residues are toxic only to insects and not to man or animals. ------- Exhibit 6.8. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: 6.8 Sterile Males Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness U.S.O.A. is involved in a number of large scale programs designed to control certain Insects by the re- lease of sterile males. However, from a national perspective, this practice is not very extensive as reflected in the ratings of the workshop panel. cr> 1. The crop production panel assigned the following extensiveness rat- ings to this trend: 1976 1 1985 1 2010 2 U.S.D.A. is involved 1n major efforts to control a number of insact populations to include the pink bollworm in the Southwest, the Mexican fruitfly in the sub- trooical areas of the United States, and the boll wevil in the Southeast and parts of the South- west. Development Planning and Research Associates, Environmental Implica- tions of Trends in Agriculture and* Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. 2. National Academy of Sciences, Con- temporary Pest Control Practices and Prospects: The Report of the Executive Committee, Volume 1, T5TT. Productivity A slight increase in crop yields can be expected. Resource Use Minor decreases can be expected in the overall chemical pesticide re- quirements. Pol lutant Changes in Media Minor to insignificant reductions in pesticide runoff and leaching would result from the associated reduction in chemical pesticide re- quirements. ------- Exhibit 6.9. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides Subtrend: Predators and Parasites Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Although spectacular results have occurred with the use of predators and parasites 1n pest control, the wide range of technology necessary for excessive adoption of this practice has not been developed (Reference 1). The workshop did not expect this trend to become very important 1n the future. CTi CD The rating assigned by the crop pro- duction panel for this trend was 1 for 1976, 1985, and 2010. 1. National Academy of Science, Con- teir.porary Pest Control Practices and Prospects: The Report of the Executive Committee. 1975"i 2. Development Planning and Research Associates, Env1ronmental Impl1 ca- tions of Trends In Agriculture and" Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977. Productivity Although the use of predators and parasites 1n the control of both weeds and Insects shows promise of increasing crop yields, no signif- icant increase is expected in light of the limited use anticipated for the practice. Resource Use No significant effect on resource use is expected. However, a re- duction in pesticide requirement can be expected in those cases in which this practice is used. The use of parasites in 'ontrol of grape leafhoppers in California re- sulted in a net savings of $2.8 mil- lion in pest control costs over an eight year period. 3. Reference Pollutant Change This trend should not have any in Media direct effects on pollutants 1n the soil, water, or air. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 7. Methods TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health of Nutrient Ecological 1985 0 0 0 Application Effect Rating I/ 2010 0 0 0 Subtrend: 7.1 Foliar application Factors/Rationale SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: No significant effects are expected from foliar application. This application technique is basically an adjunct to __, soil incorporation but may be a partial substitute. cr> (2) Research needs: a. Ongoing research involving foliar application should address environmental implications. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or ~~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 7.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.1 Foliar application Crop Production Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Extensiveness in 1976 is low. Re- search is on-going and there are limited production trials. Use of foliar application for soybeans in 2010 will increase as practice be- comes accepted. 1. Evaluation Uorkshop Rating: Panel '.: 1976 J_; 1985 2 ; 2010 2 . Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 2 . 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1976. o Productivity Limited research has shown yield increases up to 20 bu/acre for soybeans, however farmers" can ex- pect 0-10 bu/acre increases, de- pending on the original nutrient status of soils, the pre-plaht application, and previous Cropping pattern. Time of application, rate of application, and concen- trations of nutrients must be carefully controlled to reduce the potential for leaf burns and reduced yields. 2. Yield increases with experimental use of foliar application ranged between 5-20 bu/acre. Average yield increases were about 9 bu/acre. 2. "Foliar fertilizing of soybeans risky yet." Crops and Soils 29{7):27-28, Apr., 1977. Resource Use Herbicide and insecticide use re- main unchanged. Fertilizer use will remain unchanged to slight increases. Cost Is higher for foliar application in 1976, but expected to decrease with time. and commercial adoption of this practice. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water There will be less available N and P on the ground surface for runoff and this will cause de- creases in nutrient losses to surface water. 3. Nutrients are absorbed directly from the crop leaf instead of through the crops root system. 3. Reference #2 Pollutant Changes in Media; Groundwater Amount of N available for leaching is less, and reduc- tions of N in groundwater will occur. Pollutant Changes in Media: Air Potential drift problems can result with foliar application. Timing of applications can help eliminate this potential nu- tr1e-.t loss to the air. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Ecological 1985 +1 0 0 Application Effect Rating I/ 2010 +1 0 Subtrend: 7.2 Multiple applications Factors/Rationale Reduced nutrient loss Less leaching _.__. SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Effects are expected to be beneficial but of a minor nature. Less nutrients will be available for runoff at any one time. This would reduce eutrophication in surface water. There would also be less nitrogen available for leaching. (2) Research needs: a. Research is needed on the long term effects of leaching of other ions with nitrogen and movement of ions down in soil profile. NOTE: This is a general research need not specifically related to this practice. _!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. y Include specification of regional Implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 7.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Crop Production Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.2 Multiple applications Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1976, more than 40% of ap- plications are multiple appli- cations. This practice will continue to increase to 2010. Mhen the cost of high concen- tration show release fertili- zers decrease, this will tend to replace multiple applica- tion. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings: Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 J_ Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and SiTyi- culture, Volume 1. 200 pages.1977. Productivity Yield increases from 20-40 bu/acre for corn have been obtained in research trials. Farmers can probably expect an increase in productivity but yield increases will not be this high. 2. Yield increases from 20-40 bu/acre were achieved for corn with multi- ple applications. 2. "Irrigat1on-fertigat1on round table," Crops and Soils 29(7): 14-21, 1977. no Resource Use Pesticide use remains the same. Fertilizer use will be more efficient and use should decrease slightly. Increased energy and labor occur with multiple appli- cations. 3. ThO applications of nitrogen are more efficient and reduce fertilizer use. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Control of Water Pollution from Cropland, Volume 2, Reprt 710. ARS- H-5-2, Washington, D.C., 1976. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Nutrients in surface water will remain unchanged or show slight decreases. There will be less N or P available at any one time for runoff loss. However, a single ap- plication of a better formu- lation could lesult in less nutrient in runoff compared to another application. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Groundwater Leaching of N will remain unchanged or decrease slightly. There is less N available at any one time for leaching. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Soil Slight increases of soil compaction will result. Pollutant Changes in Media: Air No change ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.3 Fall applications Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 19"gF 2UTD Factors/Rationale Aquatic -2 -3 Significant nutrient losses during winter rains Terrestrial Q_ 0 Human Health -1 ,-1 Nitrate runoff and leaching SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Significant effects of an adverse nature are expected on this aquatic system as a result of increased nutrient runoff. _^ This increase occurs principally during winter rains and snow melt runoff. Generally, no appreciable effects are ^ expected on terrestrial systems from a national perspective. Nitrate runoff into surface waters and leaching into ground 00 waters pose potential health effects. (2) Research needs: a. Research is needed to determine the regional environmental impacts of fall application. \J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 7.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.3 Fall applications Crop Production Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1975, 39% of all fertilizers were fall applied. This prac- tice 1s more important 1n non- irrigated crop production and will Increase in use to 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Rating: Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 . Panel 2: 1976 1 ; 1985 1 ; 2010 1 . 2. 39',', of fertilizers in 1976 were fall applied 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of TFends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Volume 1, 200 pages. 1977. 2. National Fertilizer Development Center. TVA. 1976 Fertilizer Summary Data, 130 pages, 1976. Productivity Productivity values show-large yield decreases to slight yield reduces to no change. Fall ap- plication 1s not advisable for many areas, especially for coarse1 textured, or fine sandy soils. Fall application of winter wheat and some other crops 1s desir- able. 3. Productivity from fall applications of fertilizer can be greatly de- creased with some crops and not effect yields with other crops. 3. "Irrigat1on-fert1gat1on round- table," Crops and Soils 29(7): 14-21, 1977. Resource Use Pesticide use remains the same. Fertilizer use will remain un- changed or show slight to signi- ficant increases. The fertili- zer is less efficiently used. Leaching, run-off and denltrl- fication through the winter will reduce the available nutrients 1n the spring. Fall application of fertilizer is convenient for the farmer and fertilizer manufacturer. 4. Fall applied fertilizer 1s less efficient. Winter losses of leaching and denitr1f1cat1on will occur. U.S. Dept. of Agr1culture/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Control of Water Pollution from Cropland, Volume I, Report No. ARS-H-5-1, Wash., D.C., 1975. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Surface Water Ground Water A1r The potential of N, P, and K 1n surface water is slightly greater for fall applied fertilizers 1n many areas. Potential leaching losses and air losses of N are increased with fall fertiliza- tions. Fall application of fertilizers is undesirable on some soil types. Fertilizer 1s generally limited to ammonium fertilizers which tend to reduce leaching. 5. Reference #3 and #4 ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.4 Liquid fertilizer TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Ecoloqical 1985 0 0 0 Effect Rating I/ 2010 0 0 -0 Factors/Rationale SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: The effects of liquid fertilizer application are not significantly different from those of solid fertilizer. ~^i 01 (2) Research needs: a. Ongoing research involving liquid fertilizers should address the environmental implications. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or ~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 7.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend:: 7.4'. Liquid fertilizer Crop Production Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1975, 30% of all fertilizers were liquid compared to 8.51, 1n 1968. Use of liquid fertilizers will increase to major levels by 2010 and is the fastest growing segment of the fertilizer In- dustry. 1. Evaluation Workshop Rating: Panel 1: 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 2. Liquid fertilizer was 30% of all fertilizers in 1975. In 1968, only 8.3£ of all fertilizers were liquid. 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and SiTvi- culture, Volume 1, 200 pages, 1977. 2. National Fertilizer Development Center, TVA. 1976. Fertilizer Summary Data, 130 pages, 1976. Productivity Productivity will increase slightly with liquid ferti- lizers on a pound for pound basis. 3. Production increases with liquid fertilizer on a pound for pound basis. 3. Allied Chemical, Iowa, public demonstrations. Resource Use Herbicide and insecticide use remain constant. Fertilizer use decreases slightly. Labor will decrease. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface water Groundwater Soil Changes in nutrient pollutants 1n surface and groundwater will remain unchanged or perhaps show a very slight decrease. Pollu- tant effects of liquid fertilizers are the same on a pound for pound basis. However, total fertilizer use will decrease slightly. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.5 Aerial and floater application, Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT TW5" 27IIJ Factors/Rationale Aquatic 0_ 0_ Terrestrial +1 +2 Less soil compaction from floaters, Human Health SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: No significant effects can be expected on either the aquatic system or human health. Floater application will have minor beneficial effects on the terrestrial system resulting from less compaction. Drift problems can be anticipated from aerial application; however, the overall effects will not be significant since this type of application represents a minor part of the total means of application. (2) Research needs: a. Ongoing research involving floater and aerial application should address environmental implications. II Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. y Include specification of regional Implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 7.5. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.5 Aerial and floater application Crop Production Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Extensiveness in 1976 may be more than 20% of all fertili- zer applications. I/ This practice will continue to increase to 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings: Panel 1: 1976 1 ; 1985 2; 2010 J_. Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 3 . Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Vol. 1. 200 pages, 1977. CD Productivity Slight productivity Increases are expected with this practice. Areas difficult to treat with conventional fertilizer appli- cation methods, will benefit from aerial application. Resource Use Resource use will remain con- stant, except for labor which decreases. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Surface water Groundwater Soil Data on nutrient pollutants in surface v/ater, ground- water, and soil is not avail- able. However, it is likely to remain unchanged. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Air Increased nutrient losses will occur with aerial ap- plication, by drift. I/ Ag Chem Corp. manufacturers of floater vehicles, estimated that in 197C 50% of crop acres were transverse.' at least once per year by floater vehicles to spread fertilizer. The National Agricultural Aviation Association estimates thar. less than 5* of all crop acres are fertilized aerially, 1n 1976. ------- Evaluation Sheet for'Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 7. Methods TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health of Nutrient Ecological 1985 0 0 0 Application Effect Rating I/ 2010 0 0 0 Subtrend: 7.6 Improved nutrient placement Factors/Rationale SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Improved nutrient placement has the potential for beneficial effects from more effective utilization and less nutrient loss. However, the overall effects are not expected to be significant. (2) Research needs: None identified. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) v\here l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-} rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional Implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 7.6. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.6 Improved nutrient placement Crop Production Environmental Effects CO o Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1976, an estimated 30% or more fertilizers had improved placement. This practice will increase slightly to 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings Panel :: 1976 4 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 4 . Panel ?: 1976 2 ; 1985 3 : 2010 T". 1. Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvi- culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages, 1977. Productivity Productivity may increase slightly with optimum place- ment. 2. Decreased P in band applications can give higher yields than higher rates of P in broadcast. Yields for corn were 6 bu/acre higher for band application. 2. Richards, G. E. "Band Appli- cation: A better less costly way to fertilize your crops," Crops and Soils 28(9):10-11, Resource Use Herbicide and insecticide use remains constant. Fertilizer use v/ill remain unchanged or show slight decreases, es- pecially for P requirement. Fertilizer costs and applica- tion costs are reduced with P banding. 3. Band application of P can decrease use requirement by 502! and maintain yields. 3. Richards, G. E., "Phosphorus fertilization: can we do a better job?" Crops and Soils 27(4): 12-14, T9~75 Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface water Groundwater Soil With improved nutrient place- ment, potential nutrient pollu- tion of surface water and ground water will remain un- changed or show very slight decreases. Decreases would result from crops being able to more efficiently use the nutrients. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.7 Irrigation application Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 195?2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic -1 -1 Greater loss of nutrients in tailwater Terrestrial 0_ 0_ ""_"" Human Health 0 - 0 SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/; The effects on the aquatic system are expected to be minor and of an adverse nature resulting from a slight increase of nutrients in tailwaters. No significant effects are anticipated on human health or the terrestrial systems. co '2) Research needs: a. There is a need for research in comparing nutrient loss from irrigation and ground application. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) v,?iere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional Implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 7.7. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.7 Irrigation application Crop Production Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness An estimated 25% of all irri- gated cropland applied ferti- lizers in irrigation waters 1n 1976. Extensiveness will in- crease slightly by 2010. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings Panel 2: 1976 2 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 Dev. Planning and Research Assoc. Environmental Implications of Trends In Agriculture and STTvl- eulture, Vol. 1, 200 pages, 1977. Productivity Irrigation application lends itself to multiple applica- tions and optimal rates and timing for crops. With irri- gation, crop productivity will always increase. However, productivity can be further increased with irrigation application of fertilizer. 2. Irrigation application of ferti- lizers lends itself to optimal fertilizer management and effic- iency. Yields increased an avg. of 2C bu/acre in one study with multi- ple fertilizer applications. Irri- gation application should apply wfter uniformly across field for maximum fertilizer efficiency. 2. "Irrigat1on-fert1gat1on round table," Crops and Soils 29(7): 14-21, 1977. co ro Resource Use Fertilizer, herbicide, and in- secticide use remain constant. The cost of fertilizer that must be used in Irrigation systems is higher. However these costs are offset by lower cost of applying ferti- lizer, and increased ferti- lizer efficiency. 3. Ccsts for water applied fertilizers are higher. However costs for applying fertilizers are lower. 3. Reference #2 Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface water Groundwater Soil The potential of nutrient pollu- tion of surface water, ground- water, and soil with irrigation application of fertilizers will depend upon tne irrigation management and scheduling prac- tices. Irrigation application would probably tend to slightly reduce nutrient losses. How- ever, over irrigation or rapid application rates would increase potential nutrient pollutants. 4. With good irrigation management, little N 1s available for leaching. 4. Reference 12 Pollutant Changes 1n Media: A1r With sprinkler Irrigation, In- creased loss of nutrients to the air will occur on windy days. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop co CO Trend: 8. Using Soil Plant Analysis Subtrend: 8.1 Soil plant analysis TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Ecological Effect Rating _!/ H5F5 ±2^ 0 0 Factors/Rationale Depends on type of nutrient application SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: Higher yields expected in the future will require higher rates of nutrient application. The effects of soil plant analysis on the aquatic systems will depend on how the nutrients are applied. Multiple applications and use of slow release fertilizer will result in beneficial effects; however, fertilizer over applied will have adverse effects. Beneficial effects would reflect rates based on demand and a more effective balance between nutrients. No significant effects are expected on human health or the terrestrial systems. (2) Research needs: a. Research involving analytical techniques should address environmental implications. If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or ~~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2J Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 8.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Trend: 8. Using Soil-Plant Analysis Subtrend: 8.1 Soil Plant Analysis Crop Production Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References OD Extensiveness An estimated 20-25 percent of crop- land was covered by some type of soil analysis in 1976 while less than 5 percent was covered by plant analysis. Since these analyses are normally conducted no more than once every three years, the maximum crop- land that could be expected to be covered in any given year would be 33 1/3 percent. It Is anticipated that the annual coverage 1n 2010 will be less than 30 percent. The following ratings of extensive- ness were made by the crop production panels in connertion with this trend: Panel 1976 Development Planning and Research Associates, Environmental Implica- tions of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture, Volume I, 200 pp., WTT. Nonirrlgated 3 Crop Production Irrigatad , Crop Production Productivity Resource Use Increases in crop yields can be ex- pected from the trend towards plant- soil analysis. Some increase can be expected in fertilizer use as a result of the trend towards greater coverage by these types of analysis. Pollutant Change Although fertilizer use is expected in Media to increase, the greater efficiency associated with plant-soil analysis would tend to decrease nutrient runoff and leaching. However, this reduction can be expected to be minor. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 9. Alternative Residual Disposal Subtrend: 9.1 Off-site disposal Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT 19137 2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic _-!__ -2 Increased eutrophication, accelerated algae blooms Terrestrial .+!._. +1_ Soil rehabilitation Human Health -1 -1 Potential nitrate pollution of ground water SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: The potential of nitrogen runoff is greatet* for manure than commercial fertilizer. The increase in nitrogen and BOD in surface water can be expected to increase eutrophication and to accelerate algae blooms. The organic content of manure can be expected to contribute to soil rehabilitation (this assumes a reduction in salt applied to rations). The potential of nitrate pollution in ground water poses problems in well water. (2) Research needs: a. Additional research is needed on the effects of high sodium content in rations on soil defloculation. b. The economic feasibility of hauling manure for fertilizer use should be determined. c. The use of rotations to effectively reduce the potential build-up of copper, arsenic, and sodium found in feed rations should be investigated. d. Continued research is needed on the long term effects of nitrates on humans. I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or ~ beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Environmental Effects co CTi Exhibit 9.1. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Feedlot Operations Trend: 9. Alternative Residual Disposal Subtrend: 9.1 Off-site Disposal of Solids and Liquids Page 1 Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness About 2 billion tons of animal waste are being produced annually with less than a third, or about 500 million tons, generated in feedlots. Within feedlot operations, waste production is expected to increase by about 30% in 1985 and by 70% in 2010. The greatest portion of off-site disposal can be expected to be accomplished by land application. Although land application includes spreading for fertilization of crops as well as land disposal, most of the off-site application can be expected to be done at the higher disposal rates. Very few states have specifically prescribed maximum allowable rates. Of those few that do have these rates, the typical level is about 40 tons per acre per year. At this rate, the 30% and 70% increase 1n waste production would require a maximum of 4 million additional acres in 1985 and 8 million 1n 2010 for disposal. About 1.56 billion tons of animal waste was produced annually (1972) including feedlots, ranqe and pas- ture, and farr-s. (ref. 1) The relation between food production and animal waste is shown below: (ref. 2) TJ Produce Produces Milk, 1 Ib. Manure, 2 Ib. Chicken, 1 Ib. Manure, 8 Ib. Beef, 1 Ib. Manure, 25 Ib. The f3edlot panel of the Evaluation Works lop rated the extensiveness of off-site disposal as follows: (ref. 5) Sol ids Liqjids 1976 2 1 (1 * minor effect to 5 effect) 1985 2010 3 4 2 3 major 1. Inglett. G.E., "The Challenge of Waste Utilization," Symposium: Pro- cessing Agricultural and Municipal Wastes, Avi, West Port, Conn., 1973. 2. Stavenger, P., "The Food Industry and Pollution," Food Technology, 24, 121, 1970. 3. Draft Development Document for Ef- fluent Limitations Guidelines and~ Standard Performance, Feedlot In- dustry, prepared for the Environ- mental Protection Agency by Ham- ilton Standard, 1973. 4. "Control of Pollution from Animal Feedlots," Hearings before a sub- coraiittee of the Committee on Gov- ernment Operations, House of Repre- sentatives, 93rd Congress, 1973. 5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture.~ Phase I-The Evaluation Workshop' Sum- mary (DRAFT), prepared for EPA by Dev. Planning & Res. Assoc., 1977. Productivity The increased land disposal of ani- mal waste will have both beneficial and adverse effects on plant pro- ductivity. Croo yields associated with manure application can generally be expected to be equivalent to yields resulting from commercial fertilizer. Yields frequently will depend on clinatic conditions. In dry years, manure can be expected to have the greatest beneficial effects. In wet years commercial fertilizer will have the greatest beneficial effects. When optimal rates of chemical fer- tilizers and animal waste are applied on separate plots, usually the yield will be equal. In dry years, manure produces the greatest yields; in wet years, chemical fertilizer produces the greatest (ref. 6-7). increased soil salinity resulting from land application has been found to decrease crop yields, (ref. 8) Applications of beef and dairy waste have increased the nitrate-nitrogen content of plants to levels poten- tially toxic to animal health, (ref. 10-11) Copper concentrations 1n grasses re- ceiving waste from swine grown on high copper ration were reported above 30 ppm, the toxic threshold for sheep, (ref. 12) 6. Mclntosh, J. 1., and K. E. Varney, "Accumulative Effects of Manure and N on Continuous Corn and Clay Soil. I. Growth Yield, and Nutrient Up- take of Corn, "Agron. J., 64: 374- 378, 1972. 7. Ware, L.M., and W. A. Johnson, "Poultry Manure for Vegetable Crops —Effects and Value, Bull. 386, Ag- ricjltural Exp. Station, Auburn Univ., Auburn, Albama, 1968. 8. Mathers, A. C. and B. A. Stewart, "Crop Production and Soil Analyses as Affected by Applications of Cat- tle Feedlot Waste," Livestock Int. Symposium on Livestock Wastes, American Society of Agr. Engr., St. Joseph, Michigan, 1971. continued . . . ------- Exhibit 9.1. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Productivity (Continued) Arsenic content of legumes was found to be unaffected by applications of poultry litter containing measurable amounts of arsenic, (ref. 13) co 9. Wal'ingford, G. W., L. S. Murphy, W. L. Powers, and H. L. Manges, "Effect of Beef-Feedlots Lagoon Water on Soil Chemical Properties and Growth and Composition of Corn Forage," J. Environmental Quality 3:74-75, T57T. 10. Mathers, A. C., and B. A. Stewart, "Corn Silage Yield and Soil Chem- ical Properties as Affected by Cattle Feedlot Manure," J. Environ. Quality, 3:143-147, 1974. 11. Pratt, P. R. S. Davis, R. G. Sharp- less, W. J. Pugh, and S. E. Bishop, "Nitrate Content of Sudangrass and Barley Forages Grown on Plots Treated with Animal Manures," Agron. J., 1974. 12. Humenik, F. J., R. W. Skaggs, C. R. Willey, and D. Huisingh, "Evalua- tion of Swine Waste Treatment Al- ternatives," Waste Management Re- search, Graphics Corp., Washington D.C., 1972. 13. Morrison, J. L., "Distribution of Arsenic from Poultry Litter in Broiler Chickens, Soil, and Crops," J. Agri. and Food Chem.. 17:1288- 1290, 1969. Resource Use Increased animal waste production can be expecte'! to result 1n In- creased fertilization with manure which will tend to offset, to a small degree, the overall com- mercial fertilizer requirements. Increased land application can be expected to increase fly Infestation with an increase 1n pesticide re- quirement. However, the Increase 1n pesticide use 1s not expected to be significant. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Surface Water Available research on the possible pollution of surface water has pri- marily Involved measurement of nutrient runoff. At fertilization rates (10-20 tons/acre), nutrient From field experiments in Vermont, 1936-1943: (ref. 14) a. Greatest runoff occurred 1n Feb. and March; 14. Medgby, A.R., and D.E. Dunklee, "Fertility Runoff Losses from Ma- nure Spread during the Winter," Univ. of Vermont, Ag. Exp. Sta., Bull. 523. 1945. continued . . ------- Exhibit 9.1. (Continued) Page 3 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water (Continued) C» Co runoff associated with animal waste would be relatively minor and, in most cases would be less than the runoff associated with equivalent rates of commercial fertilizers. When animal waste is applied on frozen ground or in early spring, runoff up to 30% of the available nitrogen can be expected. Research on high disposal rates have primar- ily been designed to measure the effects on crop yield not. nutrient runoff. Several experiments in- volving these rates have shown that nutrient runoff has not been sig- nificantly greater than that of un- treated land. No specific research is available directly linking sediment loss with land disposal. However, based on research showing generally reduced runoff with land disposal, it can be concluded that sediment loss would also be reduced. b. Average nutrient losses after an application of ten tons of un- treated manure were: nitrogen equivalent to from 20 to 70 Ibs. of sodium pitrate; phosphorus, equivalent to from 12 to 25 Ibs. of 20% superphosphate; and potas- sium, equivalent to from 27 to 55 Ibs. of 50% muriate of potash; c. Volatilization losses were usual- ly greater than runoff losses be- cause they begin to occur as soon as the manure is produced, and much of the ammonia is lost into the air before runoff occurs. A study on the application of liquid dairy waste on sloping frozen land found that a rate of 130 cumulative wet tens per hecture increased the ammonium nitrogen and total coliform in the runoff. However, the total nitrogen measured in the runoff was not affected, (ref. 15) From field experiments in Wisconsin 1966-1959, on Rosetta silt loam soil the following conclusions were made: a. Up to 20% of N, 13% of P, and 13% of K nutrients in winter applied irarure on frozen ground, may be lost under conditions favoring maximum early spring runoff; b. Nutrient losses in surface runoff from plots having manure applied in the summer and incorporated into the soil were less than from check plots which received no manure, (ref. 16) A comparison of the effects of win- ter and spring application of dairy manure revealed that nutrient losses from winter applications were ex- tremely variable—3.4 to 26.9 Kg/ha of nitrogen. Spring application re- sulted in no runoff losses of N, P, or K. (ref. 17) 15. Sutton, A.L., D.W. Nelson, N.J. Moeller, and L.F. Muggins, "Appli- cation of Anaerobic Liquid Dairy Waste on Sloping Frozen Land," pre- sented at the 69th Annual Meeting of the Amer. Dairy Science Assoc., Univ. of Cuelph, Canada, 1974. 16. Hinshall, N.E., S.A. Wltzel, and M.S. Nichols, "Stream Enrichment from Farm Operations," Proc. Amer. Soc. C1v1l Engr. Sanitary Engr., Div. Sr. SA 2:513-524, 1970. 17. Henster, R.F., W.H. Enhardt, and L.M. Walsh, "Effects of Manure Handling Systems on Plant Nutrient Cycling," Livestock Waste Manage- ment and Pollution Abatement, Proc. Int. Symposium on Livestock Wastes, p. 254-257, Amer. Soc. of Agr. Eng. St. Joseph, Michigan, 1971. 18. Young, R.A., "Nutrients in Runoff from Manure Spread on Frozen Ground," Transactions of the ASAE, 1973. 19. McCaskey, T.A., G.H. Rollins, and 0. Little, "Water Pollution by Dairy Farm Wastes as Related to Method of Waste Disposal," Water Resources Research Institute Bul- letin 18, 1973. 20. Lrose, O.E., A.P. Mazurah, Leon Chesnin, "Animal Waste Utilization for Pollution Abatement," Trans- actions of the ASAE, 16,1:160-163, 1973. 21. Lund, Z.F., F. L. Long, B.D. Doss, and Luke Mugwira, "Disposal of Dairy Cattle Manure on Soil," In- ternational Symposium on Livestock Waste at Urbana-Champalgn, 1975. continued ------- Exhibit 9.1. (Continued) Page 4 Environmental Effects Conclusions Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water (Continued) Co Research Findings From £. study on the effects of veg- etation cover on dairy manure runoff the following observations were made: a. Whe.n manure was applied to frozen alfalfa lanH, 30% of the applied nitrogen and 6% of the applied orthophosphate was lost; b. Nutrient loss from the alfalfa plcts was greater than from un- treated plots; c. When manure was applied to frozen, plcwsd land, nutrient losses were only slightly greater than those frcm the untreated plots, (ref. 18) Research was done in Alabama during a 27 nonth period between 1969 and 1970 'involving spreading of manure on grassland plots. Findings revealed that the most BOD and nitrate 1n run- off dtring 1971 from spreading occured during August, the month of lowest rainfall; the least occurred during March. At 10 to '.1 tons waste applied annually on grassland, there was not an appreciable de- terioration of runoff water quality nor buildup soil nitrate, (ref. 19) Research was conducted in Nebr. with the objective of determining the maximum allowable rate of applying livestock manure to cultivate crops without pollution of surface runoff or under ground water. Beef feedlot manure was aoplied at levels of 0, 40, J20, and 260 tons dry matter/acre and oisk plowed into the soil at 4, 8, . and 12 inch depths. Conclusions made were that N and sodium displacement did not pollute the surface runoff water; however, potassium restricted the runoff to irriqat'on uses only. Ground water retained its potable quality (the 260 ton/acre test area contributed 7.8 ppm of nitrate nitro- gen. Ten ppm 1s the maximum allow- able), (ref 20) References continued . . ------- Exhibit 9.1. (Continued) Page 5 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Surface Water (Continued) In Alabama, dairy cattle manure was Incorporated into the surface (15 cm) of Not folk sand loam cropped with millet and rye for a period of three years and at a rate of 45 mt/ha/yr. Total N in run ,ff averaged less than 3 Kg/ra/yr. (ref. 21) Pollutant Changes in Media: Ground Water Increased land application of animal waste can be expected to cause a greater potential for ground water pollution. Nitrate nitrogen and sol- uble salts have been found 1n ground water in vicinity of manure applica- tion sites. Research conducted 1n California on the effects of land application of dairy waste revealed that nitrate nitrogen and soluble salts were present in vicinity of the applica- tion sites, (ref. 22) In a study in Pennsylvania, liquid dairy manure was injected on plots of orchard grass, bluegrass and corn at ra'es supplying 200 to 600 pounds of nitrogen on the bluegrass and orchard grass in the soil water at 3 to 4 feet was approximately two times the limit for potable water. The level decreased 50% in the next grow- ing season. It was estimated that continued annual applications on a relatively level silt loam soil should supply not more than 200 to 300 pounds of nitrogen per acre. (ref. 22. Adrlano, D.C., P.P. Pratt, and S.E. Bishop, "Fate of Organic Forms of N and Salt from Land-disposal Ma- nures from Dairies," Livestock Uaste Management and Pollution Abatement Proc. Int. Symposium on Livestock Wastes, P. 243-246, Amer. Soc. of Agr. Eng., St. Joseph, Michigan, 1971. 23. Marriott, L.F. and H.D. Bartlett, Animal Waste Contribution to Ni- trate Nitrogen in Soil," Inter- national Symposium on Livestock Wastes at Urbana-Champaign, 1975. 23) Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil Application of manure can generally be expected to increase soil infil- tration and improve Its water hold- Ing capacity. Total soil nitrogen can be expected to increase; however, research findings have not shown that the buildup is necessarily at undesirable levels. A single application of 13.5 t/ha of solid dairy manure increased soil Infiltration rate by 27% in a con- tinuous corn culture, (ref. 24) Wet solid beef manure applied at a rate of 112 t/ha in Texas did not sign1f1cantly affect the inflltra- ' ion rate. (ref. 25) Infiltration rates Increased with manure application rates from 93 to 269 t/ha; but decreased with higher rates, (ref. 26) Treated plots had larger yield in- creases 1n dry years than in wet years because of Improved water availability, (ref. 27-28) Application of manure Increased the available water capacity of the soil. (ref. 2?) 24. Zwerman, P.J., A.B. Drlelsma, G.D. Oones, S.D. Klausner, and D. Ellis, "Rates of Water Infiltration Re- sulting from Applications of Dairy Manure," Relationship of Agricul- ture to Soil and Water Pollution, Proc. 1970 Cornell Agricultural Waste Management Conf., p. 263-270, Graphics Management Corp., Wash- ington, D.C., 1970. 25. Swader, F.N., and B.A. Stewart, "The Effect of Feedlot Wastes on the Water Relations of Pullman Clay Loam," ASAE Paper No. 72-959, Cornell University, 1972 Annual Mtg. ASAE, Hot Springs, Ark., June 27-30, 1972. continued . . . ------- Exhibit 9.1. (Continued) Page 6 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Soil (Continued) Application of manure improved water availability by decreasing the force with which it was held In soil. (ref. 30) Heavy applications of solid feedlot waste and dairy manure slurry in- creased the total nitrogen in soil. (ref. 31-33) Research conducted in semi-arid Alberta to determine the effect of long-term applications of manure on N, P, and soluble salt content of cultivated soil under irrigation. Manure applied annually over a forty year period at 70 t/ha did not cause an undesirable buildup of the nutrients or salts, {ref. 34) 26. Manges, H.L., D.E. Eisenhauer, R.D. Stritzke, and E.H. Goering, "Beef Feedlot Manure and Soil Water Move- ment," Paper No. 74-2019, presented at the 1974 Summer Meeting, ASAE, Stillwater, June 23-26, 1974. 27. Haworth, F., T.V. Cleaver, and J.M. Bray, "The Effects of Different Manurial Treatments on the Yield and Mineral Composition of Early Potatoes," J. Hort. Sci., 41:225- 241, 1966. 28. Holliday, R., P.M. Harris, and M.R. Baba, "Investigations into the Mode of Action of Farmyard Manure. I. The Influence of Soil Moisture Conditions on the Response of Main- crop potatoes to Farmyard Manure," J. Ag. Sci_. 64:161-166, 1965. 29. Gingrich, J.R. and R.S. Stauffer, "Effects of Long-time Soil Treat- ments on Some Physical Properties of Several Illinois Soils," SS SAP 19:257-260, 1955. 30. Salter, P.J. and F. Haworth, "The Available Water Capacity of a Sandy Loam Soil," J. of Soil Sc1. 12:335-342, 1961. 31. Herron, G.M. and A.B. Erhart, "Value of Manure on an Irrigated Calcareous Soil," SSSAP 29:278-281, 1965. 32. Mathers, A.C., and B.A. Stewart, "Corn Silage Yield and Soil Chem- ica". Properties as Affected by Cattle Feedlot Manure", J. Environ. Quality 3:143-147, 1974. 33. Murphy, L.S., G.W. WalHngford, W.L. Powers, and H.L. Manges, "Effects of Solid Beef Feedlot Wastes on Soil Conditions and Plant Growth," Waste Management Res., Proc. 1972 Cornell UnivT Agr. Waste Management Conf, p. 449-464, Graphic Mgw. Corp.. Wash- ington, O.C., 1972. continued . . . ------- Exhibit 9.1. (Continued) Page 7 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References ro 34. Sommerfeldt, Theron G., U. J. Pittman, and R. A. Milne, "Effect of Feedlot Manure on Soil and Water Quality", J. Environ- mental Quality, 2, 4:423-427, ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop UD 00 Trend: 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates Subtrend: 10.1 Continuous grazing & 10.2 Specialized grazing Ecological Effect Rating I/ TYPE OF EFFECT i§852UTTJ Factors/Rationale Aquatic +1 +2 Beneficial effects from reduced runoff Terrestrial +2 +3 Species diversity increased Human Health 0_ . 0 No significant effect on ground water SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: The reduced runoff can be expected to have beneficial effects on surface water. The increased productivity in vegetation will increase species diversity. No significant effect -is anticipated on ground water. (2) Research needs: a. There is a need for research on nutrient and sediment runofr associated with the various specialized systems. V Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2] Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Range and Pasture Management Trend: 10. Grazing "ractlces and Stocking Rates Subtrend,: 10.1 i 10.2. Continuous grazl ig and 10.2 Specialized grazing Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness 10 Information was not found in the literature indicating the number of acres currently under the var- ious grazing systems: continuous vs. specialized. Estimates on range can be made from data con- tained In reference 1, making cer- tain broad assumptions. That study made estimates for 1970 and 2000 concerning four strategies: "some grazing," "extensive," "intensive, and "environmental management." Assuming that the first two strat- egies correspond with continuous grazing and the latter two with specialized grazing, the extensive- ness of the two systems are esti- mated as follows for 1970 and 2000. System 1970 2000 (mil. ac.) Continuous 641.2 515.3 -19.6% 1. Th; following strategies were de- veloped under Alternative 19, which represents an accumulation of know- lelge and constraints acquired in tha evaluation of previous alter- natives: Strategy B: some grazing - no at- tempt to achieve livestock distri- bution. St-ategy C: extensive management - relative uniform livestock distri- bution with no attempt at maxi- mizing forage production. Strategy D: Intensive management - Tiiadmizing forage production using all available technology. Strategy E: environmental manage- ment - livestock production maxi- mized. 1. U. S. Department of Agriculture The Nations Range Resources, Forest Resource, Rep. No. 19, 1972. Specialized 108.1 273.8 (No estimates are made on +153. 3% pasture) Strategy B C Subtotal D £ Subtotal 1970 (inil . 236.2 405.0 64771 57.9 50.2 T087T 2000 ac.] 155.8 359.5 5T57I 208.6 65.2 273T Productivity Specialized grazing systems can gen- erally be expocted to produce a higher quality forage than continuous systems. Rotation grazing increased litter cover, uecreased bare soil, in- creased water absorption (Infiltra- tion), decreased sod compaction, and increased basal cover of desir- able plants. (However, there was no significant difference in total basal cover of all plants.) Research 1n semi-desert sagebrush- bunch grass range found that vege- tation Increased 22 percent 1n den- sity under continuous grazing and 20 percent under rotation. Ratliff, R. D., 0. N. Reppert, and R. 0. McConnen, "Pest-rotation grazing at Harvey Valley ... range health, cattle gains, costs," Forest Service Research Paper PSW-77, Pacific S.W. Forest and Range Exp. Sta.. Berkeley, Calif., 1972. Hyder, D.N., and W. A. Sawyer, "Ro- tation-deferred grazing as compared to season-long grazing on sage- brush-bunchgrass 1n Oregon," J. Range Management 4:30-34, 195T7 Continued . . ------- Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2. (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References UD en 4. Research in Utah involving rota- tion and continuous grazing on crested wheat grass found that thiire was no significant differ- ence in 11\j basal area among ro- tation grazing, continuous grazing, and continuous grazing and delayed 10 days. 5. In Medicine Bow National Park, plant cover density improved among three systems: continuous, rotation, and rest-rotation; however, the Improve- ment was greater among rotation and rest-rotation. 6. In the northern plains, plant density declined from 50-60 percent to 30-40 percent under continuous grazing. No sianificant difference in vegeta- tion density was found between con- tinuous and rotation grazing; al- though differences were found in the effects of Individual species. 8. In a five-year study in Texas, basal cover Increased 2.7 percent under rotation grazing and 6.7 percent undt- continuous. 9. A nine-year study of grazing in Alberta found no differences in Increased ground cover by the main forage species, forbs, or shrubs. 10. A six-year study of grazing in 10. Western Canada found that grasses Increased in basal area from 7.3 percent to 7.4 percent under rota- tional systems and decreased from 7.9 percent to 7.2 percent under continuous. Freschknecht, N.C., and L. E. Karris, "Grazing Intensities and Systems on Crested Wheat Grass in Central Utah; Response of Vegetation and Cattle," Tech. Bull. No. 1388, Forest Service, USOA, Wash., D.C., 1968. Johnson, W.M., "Rotation, Rest- Rotation, and Season-long Grazing on a Mountain Range 1n Wyoming," Forest Service Research Paper RH-14, Rocky Mt. Forest and Range Exp. Sta., Fort Collins, CO,1965. Rogler, G.A., "A Twenty-five Year Comparison of Continuous and Ro- tation Grazing in the Northern Plains," J. Range Management, 4:35-41, 1951. Mcllvain, E.H., and D. Savage, "Eight-year Comparisons of Con- tinuous and Rotational Grazing on the Southern Plains Experi- mental Range," J. Range Hanage- ment, 4:42-47, 1$5T Fisher, C.E., and P.T. Marion, "Continuous and Rotation Grazing on Buffalo and Tobasa Grassland," J. Range Management, 4:48-51, 1951. Smoliak, S., "Effects of Deferred- Rotation and Continuous Grazing on Yearling Steer Gains and Short Grass Prairie Vegetation of Sovtheastern Alberta," J. Range Management, 13:239-243, 1960. Hubbard, W.A., "Rotation Grazing Studies in Western Canada," J. Range Management. 4:25-29, 1951. Continued ... . ------- Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2. (Continued) Page 3 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References 11. In a study of native grasses in the rolling plains of Texas, de- ferred-rotation systems were found to produce vegetation as well as better thar, continuous systems. 11. Mathis, Gary W., and M. H. Koth- mann, "Response of Native Range Grasses to Systems of Grazing and Grazing Intensity," Agron- omic Research in the Texas Rolling Plains, PR-2626, p-22-23, 1968. cr, Groundwater Soil 12. Three reports found deferred- rotation systems to be generally of little or no advantage to vegetation. All of the reports agree that the maximum gains per head can be achieved with moder- ate continuous grazing. 12. Clarke, S.E., E.W. Tisdale, and N.A. Skoglund, "The Effects of Climate and Grazing Practices on Shortgrass Prairie Vegegation 1n Southern Alberta, and Southwestern Saskatchewan," Canadian Dept. Agr. Tech. Bull. 46. 53 p., 1943. 13. Whitman, W., F. W. Christensen, and E. A. Helgeson, "Pasture Grasses and Pasture Mixtures for Eastern North Dakota," N. Dak. Agr. Exp. Stat. Bull. No. 327, 1943. 14. Rogler, G.A., R. J. Lorenz, and H. Schoof, "Progress with Grass," N. Dak. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. No. 439, 15 p., 1962. Resource Use The trend toward specialized grazing systems would not have any direct impact on resource requirements. Surface Water The generally improved vege- tation under socialized systems would tend to reduce sediment and nutrient runoff. 13. There is no literature available which directly link runoff rates with the various grazing systems. Increased leaching associated with improved vegetation may potentially reduce the qual- ity of groundwater. Trend toward specialized systems would have favorable impacts on soil conditions. 14. Rotation grazing decreased bare soil, increased the infiltration rate and decreased compaction. 14. Reference 2. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop Trend: 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates Subtrend: 10.3 Complementary forage seedings Ecological Effect Rating II TYPE OF EFFECT 195?2010 Factors/Rationale Aquatic 0_ 0_ Potential increase in runoff (during renovation) Terrestrial 0. -1 Plant diversity decreased with monoculture Human Health o 0 SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: The overall ecological effect from this trend is expected to be relatively insignificant. The growing of tame grass can be expected to have a minor negative effect in 2010 resulting from a decrease in plant diversity. (2) Research needs: a. This practice is currently in the experimental stage. As the system is further developed,.research is needed on its environmental impact. _!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Exhibit 10.3. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends: Range and Pasture Management . Trend: 10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates Subtrend: 10.3 Complementary Forage Seedings Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Information is not available 1n the literature from which esti- mates can be made on the exten- siveness of trends towards comple- mentary forage seedings. The range and pasture panel estimated the extensiveness to be of minor importance in 1976 but expected it to be of moderate significance in 2010. 1. The range and pasture (Work- shop) assigned the following extensiveness ratings: IL'i 1 2010 3 1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Inplica- tions of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture: Phase I - The Evaluation Workshop Summary (Draft) Prepared by Development Planning and Research Associates, 1977. Productivity Productivity in both forage and beef is enhanced under this sys- tem. Improvement in vegetation can be expected with less pressure on ranges from overgrazing. 00 2. Permanent pastures used (under complementary forage seeding systems) balance the yearly forage supply and prevents over- grtzing. Increased production has been shown in forage-produc- tioi studies involving native prairie and crested wheatgrass. 3. A comparison of continuous grazing and a system using crested wheat- grass and native grass found that herbage production was about the sairw under each system even though the latter system supported 32 per- cent; more animal unit months of grazing and produced 70 percent more pounds of beef per acre. 4. A comparison of grazing under a con- tinuous system and under a system utilizing 20 percent crested wheat- grass, 50 percent native grass, and 30 percent Russian wlldrye found that 25.6 acres were required per animal unit under the continuous system as opposad to 11.4 acres under the complementary system. Stoddart, L.A., A. D. Smith, and T. W. Box, Range Management. McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y., 1975. Lodge, R.W., "Complementary Grazing Systems for Sandhills of the Northern Great Plains," J. Range Management 16:240-244, 1561! Smoliak, S., "Grazing Studies on Native Range, Crested Wheatgrass und Russian Wildrye Pastures," J. Range Management. 21:47-50, 1968. Resource Use The utilization of this system in- creases the requirement for ferti- lizers, pesticides and land with the provision of additional pasturage (Reference 2). Continued . . . ------- Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Surface Water The increasing use of this system can be expected to have both short- term and long-term effects on the quality of surface water. In the short-term, potential pollution by nutrients and pesticides may occur during pasture renovation. In the long term, decreases in sedimenta- tion can be expected with improved vegetation cover with prevention of overgrazing. The overall impact should be relatively minor. For information on the effects of over- grazing, refer to research findings in Subtrend 10.4. Groundwater Potential pollution from nutrients and pesticides can be expected from pasture renovation. The overall impact is considered to be minor. son The overall Impact of this trend 1s expected to be minor. A possible reduction in soil compaction would occur with the decrease in over- grazing. Potential soil pollution may occur with pasture renovation. ------- Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop o CD Trend: 10. Grazing TYPE OF EFFECT Aquatic Terrestrial Human Health Practices Ecological 1985 +1 +1 0 ana Stocking Rates Effect Rating I/ 2010 +1 +3 0 Subtrend: 10.4 Controlled livestock qrazinq (proper use) Factors/Rationale Greater plant diversity SUMMARY STATEMENT (1) Potential ecological effects 2/: This subtrend is expected to have a minor beneficial effect on the aquatic system. Greater plant diversity would have a beneficial effect on the terrestrial system. This effect was expected to be moderate by 1985. (2) Research needs: a. There is a need for research of the nutrient and sediment runoff associated with controlled grazing. \J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=ma.jor ecological effect. A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negitive or adverse effect. 2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed. ------- Environmental Effects rv> o Exhibit 10.4. Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends. Range and Pasture Management Trend: 10. Grazing Practices'and Stocking Rates Subtrend: 10.4 Controlled livestock grazing (Proper use) Page 1 Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness In 1970, an estimated 85.7 million acres or 10% of the grazed forest-range was being overgrazed; close to 85% of this occurred in the Eastern forests. The goal under the Forest and Rangeland Renew- able Resource Planning Act of 1974 is to reduce the over- grazed areas to zero by 2000. No estimates are made on over- grazing on pastures. 1. The following acres of forest- range were under exploitive management (overgrazing) in 1970: Total Ecosystem grazed ~ (miTTTE.) Western range 360.8 Western forests 97.2 Great Plains 217.1 Eastern forests 159,9 Total 835.0 The exl.ensiveness of the trend towards proper stocking rates for both range and fatture was rated as follows: U.S. Department of Agriculture, The Nations Range Resources, Forest Resource, Rep. No. 19, 1972. 1976 1985 3 1985 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Implica- tions of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture:Phase I - The Evaluation Workshop Summary, Prepared by Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc.1977. Productivity The trend towards proper stocking rates will increase the production and quality of forages on ranges and to a lesser degree on pastures. 2. High-condition, prop'fly grazed range 2. will produce more pounds of usable forage than the total production in pounds of forage from the low-condi- tion, overused range. 3. A study of grazing in Kansas found 3. that heavily grazed pasture provided an average of only 121 days grazing while moderately and lightly grazed pastures sustained 180 days Of use. 4. Frequent studies cf effects of dif- 4. ferent intensities of grazing upon vegetation have shown that heavy grazing universally reduces the ca- pacity of the range and causes un- desirable vegetation changes. 5. A study on grazing effects on vege- 5. tation on South Dakota rangeland found that over twice as much live vegetation, standing dead and mulch was produced under light grazing as under heavy. 6. Heavy grazing reduces the preferred 6. forage species and pron.otes the In- vasion on the range of less desirable forages. Bell, A.M., Range!and Management for Livestock Production, Umv. of Okla. Press, Norman, OK 1973. Launchbaugh, J.L., "The Effect of Stocking Rate on Cattle Gains and on Native Shortgrass Vegetation 1n West-central Kansas, ' Kan. Agr. Expt. Sta. Bull. 394, 1957. Stoddart, L.A., A. D. Smith, and T. W. Box, Range Management, McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y.,1975. Hanlon, C. L., A. R. Kuhlman, C. J. Erickson, and J. K. Lewis, "Grazing Effects on Runoff and Vegetation on Western South Dakota Rangeland," J. Range Management, 23:418-42,, 1970. Oar-^son, D.A., "Responses of Individual Plants to Harvesting," Botanical Review.29:532-594.1963. ------- Exhibit 13.4. (Continued) Environmental Effects Resource Use no o ro Page 2 Conclusions Research Findings References The trend toward proper stocking rates will tend to decrease the requirements for pesticide and fertilizer in range and pasture preser- vation. The overall reduc- tion is expected to be minor. Surface Water Studies were not found in the literature which related stocking rates specifically to sedimentation and nutrient runoff. However, based on a number of studies on runoff it can be concluded that the trend towards proper stocking rates will reduce nutrient and sedi- ment loadings in surface water. A study of grazing effects on runoff on western South Dakota rangeland found that: a. Seasonal means of runoff associ- ated with light, moderate, and heavy grazing were significantly different from each other. b. Watersheds with heavy grazing ha 'e runoff from short, intense storms as well as from long dur- at" on storms. c. Runoff from long duration storms maybe as much from lightly grazed watersheds as from the heavy and moderate. 7. In the California winter grass- land, research found that heavily grazed plots yielded 9.25 inches while lightly grazed yielded only 4.02 inches. 8. A study of the effects of grazing on erosion and runoff in the Chaparral watersheds in central Arizona found that runoff was not affected by grazing intensities. Reference 5 7. Leacos, L.G., "Water yield as In- fluenced by Degree of Grazing 1n the California Winter Grasslands, J. Range Management. 8. Rich, L. R., and H. G. Reynolds, "Grazing in Relation to Runoff and Erosion in Some Chaparral Watersheds in Central Arizona, J. Range Management, 16:322-326, 1963. Groundwater The trend towards proper stocking rates is expected to increase leaching of nutri- ents into groundwater. Infiltrometer studies conducted on native rangeland at Cottonwood, S. Dak., showed that during the first 30 minutes of rainfall the water intake rate on heavily used pasture was 1.40 inches/hr. while on lightly used, it was 3.19 inches. Rauzi, F-. and C. L. Hanson, "Water Intake and Runoff as Affected by Intensity of Grazing, J. Range Management, 19:351-356, 1966. Soil High stocking rates results in soil compaction and increased erosion (Ref. 9). Consequently the trend towards proper stocking rates can be expected to enhance soil stabilization. 10. U.S. Department of Agriculture, RPA-ARecommended Renewable Re- lource Program, Forest Service Environmental Statement, 1976. Continued . . . ------- Exhibit 10.4. (Continued) pa e 3 Environmental Research Effects Conclusions Findings References A1r Optimizing stocking rates 1s not expected to effect air quality except indirectly through improved ground cover (Reference 9). ------- APPENDIX B DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED SILVICULTURAL TRENDS The five trends identified in Phase I which were selected for assessment in Phase II are listed in Exhibit B-l. A total of 16 subtrends were evaluated. A literature search was conducted for each subtrend's extensiveness of use, productivity effects, changes in resource use, pollutant changes by media, and other environmental effects. The information obtained from literature searches is summarized in Exhibits 1.1 through 5.1. To the extent possible, quantitative data were sought and included. Also, the extensiveness ratings arrived at in the Phase I evaluation workshop are included for each subtrend. These extensiveness ratings were based on an index scale of 1 to 5, with one representing minor and five major; and, these ratings reflect the judgments of the Composite Phase I panel of silvicultural professionals. Exhibit B-l. Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in silviculture Trend Subtrend 1. Access to Timber Resource 2. Site Preparation 3. Log Extraction 4. Utilization 5. Cutting System 1.1 Permanent road construction 1.2 Road maintenance 1.3 Project road construction 1.4 Road reconstruction 2.1 Log extraction 2.2 Mechanical preparation 2.3 Burning prescription 2.4 Chemical treatment 2.5 Fertilizer treatment 2.6 Soil moisture control 3.1 Harvest unit layout 3.2 Equipment use and development 4.1 Extraction residue recovery 4.2 Minimum size and quality extension 4.3 Species use enlargement 5.1 Clearcutting _— _______ ------- Exhibit 1.1. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource Subtrend: 1.1 Permanent Road Construction Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness New road construction 1s an activity limited almost completely to the West in gaining access to uncut old growth. It will continue through 2010, but will be completed shortly thereafter. ro o en 1, Evaluation Workshop Ratings— 1976 3 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 1 , 2. Road construction will proceed at between 9,000 and 11,000 miles per year. 3. There are now 248,000 miles In logging road systems of the Pacific Coast, with 6,200 miles rebuilt each year. 1, Development Planning and Research Associates, "Environmental Implica- tions of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture", Vol. I, 200 pp., 1977. 2. U.S. Forest Services, RPA - A Recommended Renewable Resource Program, U.S. Dept. Agr1., 650 pp. 1976. 3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Logging Roads and Pro- tection of Water Quality, Region X, 312 pp. 1975. Productivity Productivity of Western forest re- sources will be linked directly to the amount of new road construction, since old growth timber will supply most of Western output. Resource Use Forest land will be taken out of production by construction of the permanent road system with a reduc- tion 1n the forest resource base. No research was found revealing any estimate of areas Involved. There is a need for equipment de- signed to construct roads of smaller dimension but capable of handling logging traffic. Road design and layout will be planned more Intensively. 4. For each square mile of land har- vested, 5 miles of road must be built. 5. Road building equipment for high- way construction has been used for forest access roads. It 1s over built for the job. 6. Road location and design are being examined with option of examining many alternatives through use of computer technology. 4. Summer, H. C., "Managing; Steep Land for Timber Production 1n the Northwest", J. Forestry 71(5): 5. U.S. Forest Service, "Region 6 Timber Road Construction Audit", U.S. Dept. AgrL, 1973. 6. Burke D., "New Tools Allow Ex- amination of Alternatives Speedi- ly", Forest Industries. Vol. 102 (7), p, 46, J975. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water - Sediments Road construction will continue to create sediment loadings despite Improved road construction prac- tices; however, practices should reduce the adverse Impacts. Off- setting the effects of better prac- tices will be the effects of entering Increasingly steeper and more dif- ficult terrain for road building. Roads once constructed and stabil- ized will produce Uttlt added sediment yield. 7. Available literature did not pro- vide any specific estimates of the effects of road construction, but sediment production 1s much higher from road building than from any other activity. 8. Average suspended sediment In Western Oregon streams 1s 1.9 to 131 tons per acre. Eighty per- cent of sediment production 1s from roads, 20 percent from logging. 7, Megahan, W. F. and J. W. K1dd, "Effects of Logging Roads on Sediment Production Rates In Idaho Bathollth," U.S. Dept. Agrl., For. Serv. Res. Pap. Int. 123. 1972. 8. Anderson, H.W., "Suspended sediment discharge as related to stream flow topography, soil and land use," Transaction, Am. Geo- physical Union, 35(2) 268-281, 1953. continued , . , ------- Exhibit 1.1 (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Hater Yield Water Flow Water Quality ro o 01 Pollutant Changes In Media: Soil Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Air Other Environ- mental Effects: Aesthetics No appreciable change from present rates. Depending on degree of engineering and precautions taken to handle peak storm flow along and under roads, flow could be affected with peak bursts 1f ditches or culverts are obstructed. Water quality in watersheds where road construction occurs will probably suffer less 1n future than it has in the past. Effects are not felt very far downstream. No Information 1s available on the predictions of change. Mass wasting will be a continuing problem of some severity, but probably lessened with greater attention to protection. 9. In certain fragile areas of the West, slump and mass wasting occur as a result of road con- struction - as much as 700 times that of undisturbed forests on steep ground. 9. Swanston, 0. IV & F.J. Swanson, "Timber Harvesting Mass Erosion and Steepland Forest Geomorpho- logy in the Pacific Northwest", Geomorphology and Engineering, 199-221, Donald R. Coates, Editor, Dowden, Hutchinson and Ross Inc., Stroudsburg, Pa., 1976. Short term dust creation will occur, but It will occur generally in re- mote areas away from human habita- tion. The consequence of this dust 1s not known. New roads are being designed to minimize visibility for distant viewers by the NFS. While the roads will still be unpleasant for many viewers, the Impacts should be lessened. 10. Computer technology 1s used 1n selecting road locations from many alternatives. 10. Burke, D., "Automated Analysis of Timber Access Road Alternatives," U.S. Dept. AgrL, For. Service Pac. Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Sta. PNW. 123, 1976. ------- Exhibit 1.2. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource Subtrend: 1.2 Road maintenance Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Maintenance will continue on all permanent access roads where harvest and silviculture treat- ments occur. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 , 2. Guidelines have been established for minimizing environmental damages from maintenance. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. cit. 2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Logging Roads and Pro- tection of Hater Quality, Region XI, 312 pp., 1975. Resource Use No significant changes are anticipated. Productivity Productivity is not directly affected. r-o o Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water - Sediment Chemicals Sediment loadings can be expected to occur from maintenance (e.g. road grading in wet weather), but effects will be short lived. A trend toward sealing and sur- facing roads may result in some chemicals being carried to streamflow. 3. Logging roads in Region 6 are being surfaced for better erosion control, lower maintenance, and lower vehicle operating costs. 3. U.S. Forest Service Region VI Engineering Office. Pers. Coram. October 1976. Pollutant Changes in Media: Soils No changes are anticipated. Pollutant Changes in Media: Air Some dust will be generated at In- tervals, but it will be far removed from population centers. Other Environmental Effects: Wildlife None beyond those Incurred by road construction. Other Environmental Effects: Aesthetics No changes are anticipated. Other Environmental Effects: Fisheries No changes are anticipated if pre- cautions are observed and guide- lines followed. ------- ro o c» Exhibit 1.3. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource Subtrend: 1.3 Project road construction Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Project roads can be expected to be built 1n harvest areas throughout U.S. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings— 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 3 . 2. In the East, road systems are mostly established, or can be reopened with ease. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op_. cit. 2. Ursic S. J., "Harvesting Southern Forests: a Threat to Hater Qual- ity?" Nonpolnt Sources of Mater Pollution, 145-151, Proc. S. E. Regional Conference, Blacklsburg, Va., 1975. Productivity The expected trend 1s towards mini- mizing project road distances to tap given timber harvest areas. In South and North, the construction of project roads will be minima!. Tendency in past has been to over- build road distances where ground is easy, and to hold to low grades regardless of Implications of shortened distances. 3. U.S. Forest Service, "Region 6 Timber and Road Construction AUDIT", U.S. Dept. Agr., 1973. Resource Use Forest land will be taken out of pro- duction temporarily, but will be allowed to revert. Compaction can be expected to reduce growing area. Pollutant Changes in Media Trend will follow that of new road construction (Subtrend 1.1). As roads become abandoned in the West, measures can be expected to be taken to reduce environmental damages. No signif- icant Impacts are anticipated. 4. In Pacific Northwest, methods of restoring road surfaces to original slope are being used. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Logging Roads and Pro- tection of Water Quality, Region X. 312 pp. 1975. ------- Exhibit 1.4. Environmental assessment of selected silvlcultural trends Trend: 1. Access to Timber Resource Subtrend: 1.4 Road Reconstruction Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Road reconstruction will parallel new (Subtrend 1.1) construction in order to open up regenerating areas and gain entry for cultural treatments. ro o I. Evaluation Workshop Ratings— 1976 _1_; 1985 _2_; 2010 _3_. 2. Reconstruction 1n NFS forests 1s expected to reach almost 30,000 miles per year. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op_. c1t. 2. U.S. Forest Service, RPA - A Recommended Renewable Resource Program, U.S. Dept. Agr., 658 pp and app., 1976. Productivity Some productive forest land will go out of production, either tem- porarily or permanently depending on class of road. Pollutant Changes 1n Media Changes will generally be less than those associated with new road con- struction. 3. Some road reconstruction 1n West requires more soil disturbance than 1n original construction. 3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Logging Roads and Pro- tection of 'Water Region X, 312 pp, 1975. ------- Exhibit 2.1. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends Trend: 2. Site Preparation Subtrend: 2.1 Log Extraction Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References ro o Extenslveness Site preparation overall Is an Im- portant trend since certain methods are extremely damaging to soil pro- file. Log extraction is one of the less damaging methods. Since this Is a method for preparing sites after harvesting old growth in the West, 1t will decrease in importance as old growth is removed. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings 1976 3 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 2 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op_. cit. Productivity Prompt regeneration can result 1n significant Increase in productivity 1n the period between first and second harvest. Trend 1s toward Immediate site preparation following harvest, and restocking within the year following. If planting can be done Im- mediately after harvesting 1n southern pines, yield can be Increased. Thus, site preparation is an important step. Committee on Renewable Resources for Industrial Materials (CORRIM), Renewable Resources for Indus- trial Materials. National Academy of Sciences, 265 pp, Washington D.C., 1976. Resource Use Land 1s being used more efficiently by being returned to production more rapidly; logging methods themselves help prepare site. 3. Logging methods can be used to prepare sites, including sup- plemental attachments to yarding systems and skidding along contour. 3. Ward, F. R. and J. W. Russell "High Lead Scarification: An Alternative for Site Preparation and Fire Hazard Reduction", Fire Management, Fall 3-4, 9, 1975"! Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Surface Water - Sediments Water Yield Water Flow No adverse impacts are anticipated unless log movement is parallel to slope, In which case water detach- ment and transport of soil will occur. No change anticipated. No change anticipated unless up or downslope log extraction occurs. 4. Twenty percent of soil sediment .discharge is expected to result from harvesting activities. 4. Anderson, H.W., "Relative Con- tributions of Sediment from Source Areas and Transport Pro- cesses," Proc. Symposium, "Forest Land Uses and Stream Environment*. pp 55-63, O.S.U. Corvallls, Oregon, 1971. Reference f 4. Chemicals Nutrients Pollutant Changes in Media: Soil - Mass Wasting None Involved. No change anticipated. None anticipated as any result of site Reference * 4. preparation by this method, unless excessive up or downslope extraction occurs. Erosion Some erosion may occur, but H 1s not expected to be extensive. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: A1r - Dust Some dust may be generated, but 1t 1s not expected to be of significant consequence. ------- Exhibit 2.2. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends Trend: 2. Site Preparation Subtrend: 2.2 Mechanical Preparation Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Varies greatly by region of the country, with greatest utilization in the South and the Pacific Coast. The trend is expected to be away from mechanical means because of impact on soils and water. On the Pacific Coast, normal logging operations will provide much of the site preparation required. ro 1. Evaluation Workshop Rating — 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 3 . 2. In the South, some 29.6 million acres are considered to need con- version to pine type, Involving site preparation of some kind. 3. Between 1967 and 1977, forest industry was expected to drain 2 million acres and prepare another 3.7 million acres for planting. 4. Intensive mechanical site preparation 1s the most serious erosion problem In the Southern hill country. 5. In the Pacific Coast, 3 million acres of alder are convertible to conifer species. 6. In the West, specialized modifica- tions of standards cable yarding systems are being developed to scarify logged sites. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. cit. 2. Guttenberg, S., "Forestry Goals and Practices on Large Ownerships in the South,' J. Forestry. 67(7): 456-461, 1969. 4. Ursic, S. J., "Pine Management Influences the Southern Center Resource", Proc. Symposium of Young Pines, 1974. 5. Committee on Renewable Resources for Industrial Materials (CORRIM), Renewable Resources for Indus- trial Materials, National Academy of Sciences, 265 pp, Washington O.C., 1976. 6. Ward, f. R. and J. U. Russell, "High Lead Scarification: An Alternative for Site Preparation and Fire Hazard Reduction," Fire Management, Fall 3-4, 9, 197FT Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Serious problems will continue if recommended precautions are Ignored. 7. Loss of forest floor, soil compac- tion and sealing macro channels change surface flow. 7. Beasley, R. S., "Potential Effects of Forest Management on Stormflow Survey and Water Quality," Proc. Hiss. Water Resources Conference, ------- Exhibit 2.3, Environmental assessment of selected sIlvlcuKural trends Trend: 2. Site Preparation Subtrend: 2.3 Burning Prescription Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness F1re probably will be used increas- ingly as a partial substitute for mechanical site preparation as well as other uses (e.g. timber, stand improvement, fuel reduction). ro ro 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings— 1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 3 . 2. Annual needs for prescribed burn- ing amounts to about 12 million acres per year, 95% in South. How much is used in site prepara- tion is not known. 3. Substituting burning 1n place of mechanical site preparation will conserve energy and do far less damage. There 1s no need to pre- pare as thoroughly as 1s done with mechanical preparation. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. cit. 2. HcNamara, E. F., "F1re Management on State and Forest Lands," Proc. 1974 National Convention, Soc. Am. Foresters, New York, 1975. 3. Smith, D. M., ""Modern Timber Management with Petroleum," Proc. 1976 National Convention Society of American ForestersT 1976. Productivity Productivity can be improved temporarily by fire used in site preparation as result of nutrients being released. 4. The use of prescribed burning may be decreasing In the South as re- sult of air quality standards being tightened. 5. F1re is least energy - demanding method of site preparation. 4. Zobell, B., "Significance of Forest Renewable and Tree Im- provement to Forest Fanners," Forest Fanner. Vol. 35. No. 6, p 44, 1976. 5. Reference i 3. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Short term water yield and flow in- creases can be expected until new vegetative cover establishes; otherwise no significant effects can be expected. Other Environ- Wildlife and vegetation undergo mental Effects: complete changes, with new eco- Wildlife systems being created. Other Environ- mental Effects: Aesthetics Short term adverse viewing exper- iences can be anticipated. ------- ro CO Exhibit 2.4. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends Trend: 2. Site Preparation Subtrend: 2.4. Chemical Treatment Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Chemicals' Importance as a bene- ficial tool in site preparation 1s expected to increase. Federal lands are expected to receive extensive chemical treatment. A restraint to widespread use 1s cost. 1. Workshop Panel Ratings-- 1976 1 ; 1985 _2; 2010 2 . 2. In the South where the most in- tensive forestry is practiced, less than 1 per cent of commer- cial forest had pesticide applica- tions. On the Pacific Coast, State of Washington, 0.8 per cent had pesticides applied. 3. Chemicals are included 1n Forest Service Best Management Guide- lines for site preparation. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., 0£. c i t. 2. Johnson, N. E., "Pesticide Usage 1n Forestry," J. Forestry, 5:546- 548, 1972. 3. Oregon State University, S1lv1- cultural Chemicals and Protection of Water Quality, (draft), Cor- vail is, Oregon, 1976. Productivity Productivity of wood fibre will be Increased by shortening the period for establishing a new stand of tim- ber. But applications of chemicals alone cannot accomplish this. Subsequent follow up is required. Resource Use Total area receiving chemical treat- ment 1s extremely small when com- pared to the total area forested. Reference I 2. Pollutant Changes in Media: Surface Water Effects of chemical treatment on surface water are not expected to be significant. 4. Guidelines establishing pro- tection by buffer strips around water bodies will prevent any fallout of herbicides applied aerially. Herbicides have least chance of damaging aquatic fauna. 5. In site preparation, application are generally made only once with maximum of twice In a rotation. 6. Tree Injected with arsenicals showed no Increase in stream water arsenic content. 4. Reference I 3. 5. Reference I Z. 6. Norrls, L. A. and D. C. Morre. "Behavior and Impact of Organic Arsenical Herbicides 1n the For- est, U.S. Dept. Agr. for S«r PNW Experiment Station. 1974. Continued ------- Exhibit 2.4 (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Soil No significant effects are antic- ipated. 7. Commonly used herbicides break down organically. Residues of 2,4,5-T at concentrations of 11- 12 ppm drop to 0.2-0.5 ppm within 12 months. They do not travel laterally. 7. Morris, L. A., "Behavior and Ira- pact of Some Herbicides 1n For- ests," John S. Wright Forestry Conference, Purdue U., West Lafayette, Ind., 1975. Other Environ- mental Effects: Wildlife Vegetation Aquatic Habitat Human Health Disruptions will continue to occur with abrupt changes in vegetation. Broad leafed vegetation 1s elim- inated under chemical treatment. The aquatic habitat may be adversely affected 1f chemicals are applied directly to surface water. However, guidelines have been established which are expected to minimize the chances of this direct contamination. The total use of herbicides In site preparation nationwide Is expected to be so low that human health should not be significantly affected. 8. Guidelines established for min- imizing drift of aerially applied chemicals. 8. Grathowskl, H., "S1lv1cultural Use of Herbicides In Northwest Forests, U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Service. Tech. Rep. PNW 37, 44 pp, 1975. ------- ro en Exhibit 2.5. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends Trend: 2. Site Preparation Subtrend: 2.5. Fertilizer Treatment Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Fertilizer treatment 1s used pri- marily 1n the South, where moist, phosphate deficient soils need nutrient supplement for the growth of loblolly pine. 1. Workshop Panel Ratings-- 1976 1 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 2 . 2. Used only to add phosphorus to swampy areas drained for loblolly pine establishment In the South. Phosphorus applications have not affected water quality to any measurable degree. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. c1t. 2. Personal communication with George Dlssmeyer, U.S. Forest Service, Atlanta, Georgia, 1977. Productivity The creation of new pine forests will reflect an Increase In pro- ductivity. 3. About 2.0 million acres of swamp land 1n South are expected to be drained for pine production by 1977. 3. McClurkin. D. C. and P. D. Duffy, "Evaluating Impact of Forest Site Preparation on Soil and Water Quality in the United States," Proc. Fourth N. Am. Forest Soils Conf., Quebec, Canada, 1973. Resource Use Fertilizer requirements are ex- pected to range from 5,000 to 20,000 tons per year. If swamp land is prepared at a steady rate, the South would need 4,500 to 18,000 metric tons per year. Amount of swamp land remaining is unknown. 4. Phosphates are expected to be applied at rates of 50 to 200 Ibs/acre. 4. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Logging Roads and Pro- tection of Water Quality, Region X, 312 pp.. 1975. Pollutant Changes: Water Phosphate levels 1n surface water are expected to Increase; however, the increase will be relatively minor. 5. Little 1s known about water quality changes as result of phosphate fertilizing, but slight losses from fertilized sites Indicate movement Into water. 5. Sanderford, S.G., "Forest Fer- tilization and Water Quality In the North Carolina Piedmont," Tech. Report 53, North Carolina State Fertilizer Coop,, 42 pp., 1976, ------- Exhibit 2.6. Environmental assessment of selected s11v1cultur«l trends Trend: 2. Site Preparation Subtrend: 2.6. Soil Moisture Control Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness About 2.0 million acres of wetland are expected to be drained In the South by 1977. (Reference 2) ro cr> 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratlngs- 1976 2 ; 1985 2 ; 2010 1 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. c1t. 2. McClurkln, D. C. and P. D. Duffy. "Evaluation Impact of Forest Site Preparation on Soil and Water Quality 1n the United States." Proc. Fourth N. Am. Forest Soils Conf., Quebec, Canada, 1973. Productivity Swamp lands with zero productivity are being converted to pine produc- ing sites. Resource Use Drainage of swamp lands represents conversion to productive land use from non-productive use. Pollutant Changes— Media: Surface Water Wildlife and Vegetation Slight Increases 1n stream flow 1n watersheds draining swampy areas can be expected. Plant species and wildlife existing 1n the wetlands will be replaced with the limited diversity of pine forests. ------- Exhibit 3.1. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends Trend: 3. Log Extractions Subtrend: 3.1. Harvest Unit Layout - Intensity of Effort Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Planning will play an Increasingly important role in Western old growth timber stands 1n determining locations, size of harvest units, design or shape of cutting areas, considerations to visibility, road access, and other aspects of multiple use. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 4 . 2. Techniques are being developed for gauging aesthetic Impacts of logging on roadside viewing. 3. The development of computer pro- grams for designing harvest operations and determining road locations facilitate the study of many alternatives. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. c1t. 2. Polter, D. R. and J. A. Wagar, "Techniques for Inventorying Man Hade Impacts on Roadway Environ- ments," U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Services, Research Paper, PNW 121, 1971. 3. Burke, "Doyle, Running Skylines Reduce Access Road Needs Mini- mize Harvest Impact," Forest In- dustries, Vol. 102:(7), p. 46, 1975. 3a. "Topometrics, A System for Evalu- ating Route Alternatives," Nat, Agr. Sciences Trans. Res. Bd. Sp. Reproduction 160, pp. 141-145, 1975. Productivity In terms of roundwood production, productivity 1s not expected to in- crease, except to the extent that planning may aid in increasing utilization. Resource Use The only increase in resource use expected is in the field of utiliza- tion, especially in residues of old. growth logging, and whale tree utilization in the South (see Trend 4, Utilization): pollutant Changes; Surface Water - Sediment Increasing control pver movement pf water and transport of sediment? will b§ gained but problems, wm continue to persist especially in the sheep of the westt Continuing research and development of programs for more effective man- agement are being formulated- U.S. Forest Service, A National Program for Researc and men pn Ngn-Point Source ution on Forest dater' •flnd, Hash, p. C.. (Review Draft), Washington, P-fil, 197§, Continued ------- Exhibit 3.1 (Continued) p fi 2 Environmental Research Fffects Conclusions Findings References Wildlife No substantial changes from usual harvesting planning are expected unless planning 1s directed specif- ically at habitat modification as result of harvest plans. ro •—' Fisheries Increasing protection of existing temperatures and streambed structure is expected. Aesthetics Continuing development of harvesting 5. Plans in Pacific Coast include 5. Bureau of Land Management, Timber and Viewing plans to reduce or minimize effect road screening, distant view Management Plan, Final Environ- on viewer of harvested lands can considerations, and successive mental Impact Statement, 584 pp. be expected. harvests hidden by uncut bands Washington D.C., 1976. of timber. ------- ro Exhibit 3.2. Environmental assessment of selected sllvicultural trends Trend: 3. Log Extraction Subtrend: 3.2. Equipment Use and Development Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness On the Pacific Coast, a continuing need will exist for large equipment modified to reduce environmental damages. This will probably involve the development of lighter more mobile yarding equipment for entry into younger stands for thinning. In the South, a trend 1s developing for equipment designed for whole tree handling of timber of uniform size. 1. Workshop Panel Ratings-- 1976 3 ; 1985 4 ; 2010 5 . 2. Increasing use of modified cable systems 1s reducing road needs. 3. Light yarding equipment coming into use in Pacific Coast 1s more efficient and less damaging 1n thinning operations. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. cit. 2. Burke, Doyle, "Running Skylines Reduce Access Road Needs Minimize Harvest Site Impact," Forest In- dustries, Vol. 102:{7), p. 46, Kellogg, L. and E. Aurlich, "Pre- bunch and Swing Technique May Reduce Thinning Costs," Forest Industries, Vol. 104(2), p. 30, 1977. Productivity Environmental constraints can be ex- pected to limit productivity 1n a number of situations, but the overall trend is toward increasing productiv- ity, especially in regenerating stands where thinning takes place. Resource Use The requirement for resources used In developing and supplying equipment will increase significantly, especially with the demands in the North and South. 4. Timber production will increase markedly in the North and South: North—from 47 million m3 to 94 million m3; South from 159 mm tir to 329 mm m3; and West—from 165 mm m3 to 270 ran m3. A doubling of pro- duction Implies a corresponding In- crease In equipment needs. "Outlook for Timber 1n the United States," For. Serv. Rept. 20, 367 pp., 1973, USDA Forest Ser- vice, RPA, A Recommended Renew- able Resource Program, 658 pp, and App., 1976. Pollutant Changes in Media; Surface Water A1r Soil Equipment changes are expected to reduce surface water pollution. Exhaust emissions and dust are ex- pected to increase with the Increase in woods activity. A trend toward the use of high flota- tion tires In skidders can be expected. 5. Skidder wheel tracks need 12 years to recover from compaction, while the skid marks of logs require 8 years. 5. Dickerson, B.P., "Soil Compaction After Tree Length Skidding In Northern Mississippi," Soil Scl. Am. J.. 40(6):96, 1969. ------- Exhibit 4.1. Environmental assessment of selected sllvicultural trends Trend 4: 4. Utilization Subtrend: 4.1. Extraction Residue Recovery Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extenslveness Significant increases are expected to occur in recovery of extraction res- idues. Currently, almost a half of the total unused residues are being generated 1n the Pacific Coast forests. Uhole tree utilization is expected to double in the South. Complete tree removal has the potential of increasing. utilization by about 25 percent. The expected increase 1n extraction res- idue recovery can be attributed both to economic and social factors as well as technological developments. ro ro o 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings— 1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 1 . 2. Almost one half the total unused woods residues 1n the nation are generated in Pacific Coast forests. 3. Bark 1s developing as a new energy source, via conversion to gas or liquid fuel. 4. Costs of bringing in woods residue vary from $34 to $43 per ton for chips and $31 to $40 for hogged fuel. 5. Potential for increasing utiliza- tion through complete tree removal Is estimated at an additional 25 percent. Current utilization of 30 cm stump height and 10 cm utilizable top diameter leaves half of the biomass of a tree In the woods. 6.'In the South, whole tree utiliza- tion in hardwoods is expected to increase biomass utilization from 30 percent to 67 percent. 7. More complete utilization will: -Add over ^ million tons of utH1z- able raw material annually -Protect soils -Decrease air pollution -Reduce debris In streams -Improve scenic values -Improve recreational opportun- ities -Reduce public criticism. 8. Logging residues cost $30 per dry ton delivered, as opposed to $2.50 for hogged mill wastes $10 for planer shavings, and $20 for chips. 9. Advances in materials handling such as grapple yarder Is helping to re- cover more residues from logging operation. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. cit. 2. Corder, S. E., "Wood and Bark Residues for Energy," P. 7, Proc. Conference, O.S.U., CorvalUs, 1974. 3. U.S. Forest Service, "Properties and Uses of Bark as an Energy Source," Dept. Agr. USFS Res. Paper PNW 31, Forest Research Lab O.S.U., CorvalUs, Oregon, 1976. 4. Grantham, J. B., E. M. Estap, H. Tarkow and T. C. Adams, "Energy and Raw Material Potential of Wood Residue In Pacific Coast States," 1974. 5. Committee on Renewable Resources for Industrial Materials (CORRIM). Renewable Resources for Indus- trial Materials, National Academy of Sciences, 265 pp., Washington, D. C., 1976. 6. Koch, P., "Key to Utilization of Hardwoods: The Shaping Lathe Headrlg," Forest Industries, 103 (11):48-51. 1976. 7. Grantham, J. B., "Status of Tim- ber Utilization on Pacific Coast," Dept. Agr., Forest Service, Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW 29, 1976. 8. Reference 7. 9. Reference 3. Continued ------- Exhibit 4.1 (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References 10. Utilization of tree stem 1s In- creasing. Younger stands provide less unmerchantable or cull vol- umes. Thinnings are taking most defective material. 10. Ruth, R. H. and A. S. Harris, "Forest Residues 1n Hemlock Spruce Forests of Pacific Northwest and Alaska," U.S. Dept. Agr. Forest Ser., Gen. Tech. Rep. 39, 1975. ro ro Productivity Increasing recovery of material now left In woods will add sub- stantially to annual supply of pulpable fibre and combustible fuel. 11. One cubic meter of hogged bark has thermal content of .09 cubic meters of Number 4 oil. 12. NFS lands have 3 times as much residue left as private Industry lands 1n Pacific Northwest. Old growth will be largely liquidated In the West between 2020 and 2040. 11. Reference 3. 12. U.S. Forest Service, "Douglas Fir Supply Study," Regions 5 and 6 PMW, Forest and Range Exp. Station, Portland, Oregon, 51 pp., 1969. Resource Use Resource use will Intensify In terms of extraction activity per acre. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Surface Water Soils Air Other Environmen- tal Effects- Aesthetics Other Uses Wildlife In general, pollutant changes 1n media will reflect an Improvement. However, possibilities will exist for increased soil disturbance and road use. Debris content of streams will be reduced. Protection of soil structure by mini- mizing burning of slash will be offset to some extent by increased soil dis- turbance in yarding Increased volumes of material per unit area. Air pollution from slash burning will decrease. Adverse scenic Impacts will be re- duced. Recreation value of logged areas will Increase during regeneration period. Access and movement will ba easier for big game. 13. Tendency should be toward les- sened public criticism. 14. Opportunities will exist for easier access, berry picking, wildlife viewing. 13. Reference 3. 14. Reference 3. ------- Exhibit 4.2. Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends Trend: 4. Utilization Subtrend: 4.2. Minimum Size and Quality Extension Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Extensiveness Significant Increases are expected 1n the practice of minimum size and quality extension. This trend 1s particularly apparent in the South. no ro no 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-- 1976 3 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 1 . 2. In the South extracting the whole tree Including roots facilitates a 20 percent increase in utlllz- able fibre. 3. In eastern hardwoods, tops of harvested trees yielded 7 cubic meters/acre of sawn products and 23 tons of chippable wood. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. cjt. 2. Koch, P., "Key to Utilization of Hardwoods: The Sahplng Lathe Headrlg," Forest Industries, 103 (11):48-51, 1976. 3. Craft, E. P., "Utilizing Hard- wood Residues, A Case Study in the Appalachians," U.S. Dept. Agr., For. Serv. Res., Note NE 22. Productivity The potential for taking advantage of unused tops and species will de- pend on status of Industry, region- ally and subreglonally. 4. Pacific Coast pulping raw material 1s derived 85 percent from res- idues of sawmills and plywood plants. 5. In South material is derived 72.5 percent from roundwood material 27.5 percent from chips (some of which produced from roundwood.) In South 45 m3/ha of chippable wood left after clearcut. 4. Grantham, V. B., "Status of Tim- ber Utilization on the Pacific Coast," U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Serv., Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW 29, 1976. 5. "1976 Southern Pulpwood Produc- tion Sets Another Record; up 4 percent," Forest Industries, Vol. 103 (6), June 19, 1976. 5a. Chappell, T. W. and R. C. Beetz, "Southern Logging Residues; Opportunity," 0 Forestry 71:11, p. 688, 1973. Resource Use Increased utilization through min- imum size and quality extension will increase activity per unit area harvested. Pollutant Changes 1n Media: Surface Water Soils If tree pulling and whole tree util- ization becomes a common practice In the South, nutrient deficiencies will occur. An Increase 1n soil disturbance and compaction can be expected. ------- Exhibit 4.3. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends Trend: 4. Utilization Subtrend: 4.3. Species Use Enlargement Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings Reference ro CO Extenslveness Species use enlargement 1s expected to Involve the utilization of more hardwood species of North and South, and alder and aspen In West. 1. Evaluation Workshop Ratlngs- 1976 2 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 4 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., op. cit. Productivity Productivity of some areas of country will Increase as more species become available but conversion to pure stands in many instances will prob- ably tend to decrease future utiliza- tion in terms of volume. 2. The utilization of hardwood 1n the South rose from 12.7 million cubic meters 1n 1964 to 21.4 million In 1974. 2. "Pulpwood Statistics." Forest Industry, Vol. 103(6), p. 6, June 1976. Resource Use Resource use 1s expected to Increase with the removal of a greater volume per unit area. Hardwoods 1n pulp expected to In- crease from 23 percent of all pulp- wood production 1n 1970 to 35 percent by 2010. "Outlook for Timber," Forest Service Report 20, 367 pp., 1973. USDA Forest Service, RPA, A Recommended Renewable Resource Program, 658 pp. and App., 1976. Pollution Changes 1n Media: Surface Water - Sediments Soil disturbance should be decreased especially in the South, where In- creasing species removal will result 1n less need for heavy equipment 1n site preparation. Other Environ- mental Eff»cts: Wildlife Changes will occur with conversion to monoculture. ------- Exhibit 5.1. Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends Trend: 5. Cutting Systems Subtrend: 5.1. Clearcuttlng Page 1 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References rsj ro Extenslveness Clearcutting as a system 1s Increas- ing. Evenaged management Is demonstra- ting greatest potential for maximizing fibre yield in a number of forest types, and clearcuttlng provides best opportunity for establishment of new stands. Clearcutting is also target of criticism because its use, especially on old growth stands, causes immediate aesthetic degradation and can result in damages to water and soil. It effectively dedicates land to fibre production to the detriment of other uses. Possibility exists for future limiting of clearcuts on federal lands, result- Ing from public pressures. Future trends 1n clearcuttlng will be to limit visual affront and other damages by selection of size, shape, location, use of road screens and stream buffers. 1. Workshop Panel Ratings— 1976 4 ; 1985 3 ; 2010 S . 2. Most damages associated with Clearcutting are actually re- sults of other activities— railroad logging, road building, repeated unchecked fares on log- ging sites, and lack of residue recovery. 3. A combination of shelpwood and clearcut in patches has been adopted as a policy by Bureau of Land Management 1n conducting timber sales. 1. Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., Environmental Implications of Trends in culture and Silviculture, Vol. I, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 pp, 1977. 2. Smith, D.M., Modern Timber Man- agement Without Petroleum, Proc"., 1976 National Convention Society of American Foresters, 1976. 3. Bureau of Land Management, Timber Management, Final Environmental Impact Statement, 584 pp, Wash- ington, D.C., 1976. Productivity Evenaged management favors quick re- establishment of regeneration, which effectively shortens rotation. Species responding are generally desirable in market and show strong growth char- acteristics. Consequently, produc- tivity will be higher where such estab- lishment replaces unevenaged mixed stands. Judicious use of clearcut will Increase productivity of fibre but will inevitably depreciate other values. 4. Areas opened up by clearcuttlng favor quick establishment of species. 5. Of 37 major forest types, clear- cutting us^ 1n at least 20 as a standard method. 4. U.S. Forest Service, SHvlcultural Systems of the Major Forest Types~ of the United States, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Handbook 445, 124 pp. 5. Reference 4. Resource Use NO. changes anticipated- pollutant Changes 1n Media.: Su.rfa.ce Hater - Sediment? cjearputs pan and df) result in sed- iments and erps.inn but pare in IQ- ' . catifln, si'?e and lagging method pan minimize these.. nrflBi§m§! Trend In future will be wward §yeh praet1e.es.. §• Clearpntt1nq and harvesting disturbs mRre than 30 percent ef the pre-sflll serfage. are»: g. Reasiey, R-s., "pptentlal Effects of F9rest Management 9n §t9rmfl9« Misc. Hater Bes.flnrees Eflnf-7 »?fi. Continued • , , ------- Exhibit 5.1 (Continued) Page 2 Environmental Effects Conclusions Research Findings References Water Yield and Flow Water Quality ro ro en Soils - Mass Wasting Other Environ- mental Effects: Aesthetics Clearcuttlng should continue to be a useful tool in increasing water yield in Rockies through snow en- trapment in openings created. Clearcutting on Pacific Coast can re- sult in short term increases that drop as vegetation re-establishes. In Rockies, timing of cut controls flow and erosion potential. Exercised with care, clearcuttlng can be carried out without Impairing water quality. Ongoing work to min- imize effects should result 1n more protection, but temperature and sediment loads can be affected. Without close knowledge and care 1n handling of slope under soil con- ditions, mass wasting can occur from large clear cuts, but this 1s more often the result of roads than cut- ting, per se. Trend 1s toward smaller, sfiaped cuts. It is becoming Increasingly possible and practical to handle clearcuts so as to minimize adverse environmental Impacts, including aesthetics. A combination of clear cuts and shelter, wood cuts will most likely continue. However, with decreasing size of clearcut more roads are required, which results in greater environmental problems than clearcuttlng Itself. 7. Timber clearcuttlng techniques in Rockies has proven to be an effective means of increasing yield and flow of water. 8. Individual clearcuts of less than 5 percent of a given watershed probably do not affect downstream flows. The slight effect would be lost by worse damage connected with roads, plugged drains, loose soil, etc. Both cut and uncut areas re- spond about equally to heavy storm conditions in Rocky Mountains. Timing of cutting can minimize or avoid channel erosion. 9. In North, It is possible to harvest clearcut lands at no significant damage to water quality. 10. Large clearcuts have resulted In debris avalanches accelerated by expanses of bare ground, but har- vesting itself was responsible for ground baring. 11. In a 6 year period, clearcut with- out roads had 2 percent of land slide actj/ity of clearcut roads, but clearcutting can stop nutrient uptake, reduce organic matter, and Increase soil erosion potential. 12. The use of computer technology with maps and data memory storage allows study of map alternatives for arriving at optimum harvest plan. 7. Hover, M.D. "Vegetation Manage- ment for Water Yield," Symposium of Water Balance in North America. Proc. Ser. 7 pp 191-195, 1969. 8. Harr, A.D., Forest Practices and Streamflow In Western Oregon, U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Service, Tech. Rep. PNN 49, 1976. 9. Aubertin, G.M. and J.H. PatHc, "Quality Water from Clearcut Land", Northern Logger, 20(8): 14-15, T57E 9a. Hornbeck, J.W., "Protecting Water Quality During and After Clear- cutting," J. Soil and Water Con- servation. 23(1):19-20. 1568. 10. Bishop, D. and M.E. Stevens, Land- slidas on Logged Aneasin S.E. Alaska, U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Service, Res. Paper NOR-1, 18 pp, 1964. 11. FredeHckson, R.L., "Impact of Forest Management on Stream Water Quality 1n Western Oregon," Proc. Symposium of Water Pollution and Abatement, Forest Products Re- search Society, 1972. 12. Burke D., "New Tools Allow Exam- ination of Alternatives Speedily," Forest Industries. Vol. 102:(7), pp 48-50, Vol. 102:(8). p. 44, June 197S. ------- Exhibit 5.1 (Continued) Environmental Effects Wildlife ro Aquatic Systems Page 3 Conclusions Research Findings References The wildlife make-up changes with dear-cutting, from tree and forest dwelling found to be more open dwelling. With the creation of new edge between vegetation types, wild- life should be more diverse, with increased interim browse for un- gulates, and more habitat for brush dwelling species. Aquatic systems will continue to receive some adverse Impact, but these will be limited wherever pre- cautions are taken. 13. Birdlife on clearcut changes sig- nificantly. Populations drop 1n first few months, building up to greater than pre-harvest by third year for all brush and ground dwellers. By Year 12, tree dwelling species appear again. 14. Use of buffer strips will both Impede surface runoff and main- tain stable water temperatures, helping to sustain heating fisheries. 13. Conner, R.R. and C.S. Adkisson, "Effects of Clearcuttlng on Diversity of Breeding Birds," J. Forestry. 73(12):781, 1975. 14. U.S. Forest Service, RPA- A Recommended Renewable Resource Program, U.S. Dept. Agr., 652 p. 658 pp and App., 1976. ------- TECHNICAL REPORT DATA (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing) 1. REPORT NO. EPA-600/3-78-102 3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOr*NO. 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture Silviculture. Volume II: Environmental Effects of Trends and 5. REPORT DATE December 1978 6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE 7. AUTHOR(S) Samuel G. Linger 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc. 200 Research Drive Manhattan, Kan. 66502 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO. 1BB770 11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO. 68-03-2451 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS Environmental Research Laboratory—Athens, GA Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Athens, Ga. 30605 13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED Final 14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE EPA/600/01 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Volume I: Trend Identification and Evaluation (EPA-600/3-77-121) 16. ABSTRACT This study assesses those trends in U.S. agriculture and silviculture that will have the most significant environmental implications, either beneficial or adverse, in the short term (1985) and in the long term (2010). Volume I identifies trends in irrigated and nonirrigated crop production, feedlot production, range and pasture management, and silviculture and harvest management. Volume II identifies the major ecological impacts of the major trends on aquatic life, terrestrial life, and human health. The second volume also contains an assessment of continuing research needs and prospective policy issues involving environmental quality management. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS DESCRIPTORS b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS COSATI Field/Group Agriculture Silviculture Environmental effects Environmental quality management 98C 48D 68D 91A 13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT RELEASE TO PUBLIC CLASS (This Report) lINriAS.STFTFn 21. NO. OF PAGES 247 20. SECURITY CLASS (This page) UNCLASSIFIED 22. PRICE EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73) 227 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1978 — 657-060/1557 ------- U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Office of Research and Development Environmental Research Information Center Cincinnati, Ohio 45268 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, S3OO AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY EPA-335 Special Fourth-C lass R ate Book If your address is incorrect, p/ease change on the above label tear off, and return to the above address. If you do not desire to continue receiving these technical reports. CHECK HEREU3, tear off label, and return it to the above address. EPA-600/3-78-102 ------- |