tnvironmsntal Protection
Agency
Environmental Research
Laboratory
Athens GA 30605
EPA-600'3-78-102
December 1978
Research and Development
Environmental
Implications of
Trends in
Agriculture and
Silviculture

Volume II
Environmental
Effects of Trends

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                RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES

Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series. These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology.  Elimination  of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are:

      1.  Environmental  Health Effects Research
      2.  Environmental  Protection Technology
      3   Ecological  Research
      4.  Environmental  Monitoring
      5.  Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
      6.  Scientific and Technical  Assessment Reports (STAR)
      7.  Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
      8.  "Special" Reports
      9.  Miscellaneous Reports

This report has been assigned to the ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH series. This series
describes research on the effects of pollution on humans, plant and animal spe-
cies, and materials. Problems  are assessed for their long- and short-term influ-
ences. Investigations  include formation, transport, and pathway studies to deter-
mine the fate of pollutants and their effects. This work provides the  technical basis
for setting standards to minimize undesirable changes in living organisms in the
aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion  Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

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                                               EPA-600/3-78-102
                                               December 1978
       ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRENDS
          IN AGRICULTURE AND SILVICULTURE

    Volume II:   Environmental  Effects of Trends
                         by

                  Samuel  G. Unger
              Principal  Investigator
Development Planning and Research Associates,  Inc.
              Manhattan,  Kansas 66502

                        and
             The Tuolumne Corporation
          Corte Madera,  California 94925
              Contract No. 68-03-2451
                  Project Officer

                 George W. Bailey
         Environmental Research Laboratory
               Athens, Georgia 30605
         ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
        OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
       U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
               ATHENS, GEORGIA 30605

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                                  DISCLAIMER
      This report has been reviewed by the Environmental Research Laboratory,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, Ga., and approved for publica-
tion.  Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the
views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does
mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.

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                                   FOREWORD

     Environmental protection efforts are increasingly directed towards pre-
venting adverse health and ecological effects associated with specific com-
pounds of natural or human origin.  As part of this Laboratory's research on
the occurrence, movement, transformation, impact, and control of environmental
contaminants, management or engineering tools are developed for assessing and
controlling adverse environmental effects of non-irrigated agriculture and of
silviculture.

     Agricultural and silvicultural practices, already significant sources of
water and air pollution, represent areas of increasing environmental concern
as these production systems expand to meet growing population needs.  This
study assesses the environmental implications and effects of short- and long-
term trends in American agriculture and silviculture and identifies research
needs and policy  issues.  The developed information should benefit environmen-
tal managers as they attempt to anticipate pollution problems of the future.


                                       David W. Duttweiler
                                       Director
                                       Environmental Research Laboratory
                                       Athens, Georgia
                                      m

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                                 PREFACE
The results of this research study, the "Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture," are presented in two parts:
Volume I:  "Trend Identification and Evaluation," and Volume II:  "En-
vironmental Effects of Trends."

Volume I identifies, defines, rates, and rank-orders the most important
environmentally related trends within all  major subsectors of agriculture
and silviculture.  The environmental ratings and rankings were made by
selected panels of professionals from throughout the nation on the basis
of the Contractor's interim report of trend-by-trend assessments.  Over
240 specific subtrends, representing over 70 trend groupings, were eval-
uated across five panel areas — subsectors of agriculture and silvi-
culture.   These panel areas were:  (1) nonirrigated crop production, (2)
irrigated crop production, (3) feedlot production, (4) range and pasture
management, and (5) silviculture and harvest management.  Separate sec-
tions of the Volume I report are devoted to each of these panel areas
of study.

Volume II extends the environmental assessment for major trends from each
panel area, primarily from the crop production subsectors.  Ultimately,
the main evaluations of Volume II were assessments of each trend's probable
ecological effects, i.e., aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health
impacts.  These evaluations were also completed by professionals in a work-
shop setting on the basis of the Contractor's background summary of de-
tailed findings for each trend-subtrend.  Volume II also contains an
assessment of continuing research needs and prospective policy issues
involving agriculture and silviculture and environmental quality management.

Throughout the study both short-term (1985) and long-term (2010) effects
were evaluated, although emphasis was placed on the long-term.  Further-
more, the study considered the beneficial  as well as the adverse effects
of trends in agriculture and silviculture to recognize that the nation's
environmental quality can perhaps be as readily enhanced through the pro-
motion of beneficial trends as through the control of adverse trends.
Finally, the research approach of this study relied heavily upon the value
judgements of professionals from agriculture and silviculture.  We believe
that the composite, informed professional  judgements presented here are
most reflective of the environmental implications of trends in agriculture
and silviculture.
                                    IV

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                                 ABSTRACT


This study assessed those trends in U. S. agriculture and silviculture which
will have the most significant environmental implications, either beneficial
or adverse, in the short-term (1985) and in the long-term (2010).

The study's findings are reported in two parts.  Volume I identified relevant
trends and rated their environmental implications for five major subsectors
of agriculture and silviculture:  (1) nonirrigated crop production, (2)
irrigated crop production, (3) feedlot production, (4) range and pasture
management, and (5) silviculture and harvest management.  Volume II extended
the environmental effects analysis of selected major trends from each sub-
sector, primarily the identification of major ecological impacts of the major
trends on aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health.  A second study
workshop was conducted to ascertain probable ecological effects where data
constraints currently exist.

Volume II also contains the study's identification of research needs germane
to a more definitive assessment of the environmental and ecological effects
of the five subsectors, and the study's development of prospective policy
issues which are likely to emerge from the five subsectors.

The research needs range widely, but were classified into four primary re-
search categories:  production efficiency, pollution measurement, pollution
reduction, and ecological impact.  A fifth category, extensiveness research,
completes the framework of research needs, but this category is largely out-
side EPA's primary areas of responsibility.  The prospective pollution con-
trol policy issues discussed all emanate from three basic policy areas:
control of wastes from production processes, control of polluting inputs,
and control of management practices to reduce pollutants generated.  Each
subsector of agriculture and silviculture has both research needs and pros-
pective policy issues within these four research categories and within the
three basic pollution control policy areas, as reported.

This report was submitted in fulfillment of EPA Contract No. 68-03-2451 by
Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., Manhattan, Kansas, and
its subcontractor, The Tuolumne Corporation, Corte Madera, California,
under the sponsorship of the Environmental Protection Agency.  Work was
completed as of December  1977.

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                                 CONTENTS

FOREWORD                                                             jii
PREFACE                                                               iv
ABSTRACT                                                               v
LIST OF EXHIBITS                                                      ix
ACKNOWLEDGMENT                                                         x
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                   xiii

  I.   INTRODUCTION                                                    1
            A.  Scope of Study                                         2
            B.  Phase II Procedures                                    2
            C.  The Ecology Workshop                                   4

 II.   ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS ASSESSMENT                 5
            A.  Agriculture Sector Trends                              7
                    1.  Runoff and Erosion Control                     7
                    2.  Conservation Tillage                          14
                    3.  Improved Water Application                    19
                    4.  Improvement of Seeds and Plants               27
                    5.  Scouting and Integrated Control               31
                    6.  Development of New Biological and Chemical
                        Pesticides                                    33
                    7.  Methods of Nutrient Application               35
                    8.  Soil-Plant Analysis                           40
                    9.  Alternative Residual Disposal                 41
                   10.  Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates          42
            B.  Silviculture Sector Trends                            45
                    1.  Access to Timber Resources                    45
                    2.  Site Preparation                              51
                    3.  Log Extraction                                57
                    4.  Utilization                                   59
                    5.  Cutting System                                63

III.   RESEARCH NEEDS                                                 65
            A.  Agriculture Sector Research Needs                     66
                    Production Efficiency Research Needs              66
                    Pollution Measurement Research Needs              72
                    Pollution Reduction Research Needs                73
                    Ecological Impact Research Needs                  74
            B.  Silviculture Sector Research Needs                    75
                    Production Efficiency Research Needs              75
                    Pollution Measurement Research Needs              77
                    Pollution Reduction Research Needs                77
                    Ecological Impact Research Needs                  78

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                          CONTENTS  (Continued)
IV.    POLICY ISSUES
           A.   Agriculture Sector Policy Issues
                   Crop Production Subsector - Soil  and  Water
                   Management
                   Crop Production Subsector - Nutrient  Manage-
                   ment
                   Crop Production Subsector - Pesticide Manage-
                   ment
                   Feedlot Production Subsector  - Residual  Disposal
                   Management
                   Range and Pasture Management  Subsector -
                   Grazing Management
                   Range and Pasture Management  - Renovations  and
                   Improved Management
           B.   Silviculture Sector Policy Issues
                   Silviculture Production Sector -  Harvest
                   Management Function
                   Silviculture Production Sector -  Stand Control
                   Management
                   Silviculture Production Sector -  Damage Control
                   Management
      BIBLIOGRAPHY
      APPENDIX A --
      APPENDIX B --
                                                79
                                                80

                                                80

                                                83

                                                84

                                                86

                                                86

                                                87
                                                88

                                                89

                                                91

                                                92

                                                94
DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED
AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND THE ECOLOGY WORKSHOP
EVALUATION SUMMARY                             106
DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED
SILVICULTURAL TRENDS
                                                                    204
                                  vm

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                             LIST OF EXHIBITS

Number                                                               Page

 II-l    Summary of top ranked (vis-a-vis their environmental
         implications) Phase I trends in agriculture and silvi-
         culture including identification of Phase II trends           6
 II-2    Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in
         agriculture                                                   8
 II-3    Summary of selected Phase II trends and subtrends in
         silviculture                                                 46

III-l    Summary of agriculture sector research needs by trend
         and research category                                        67
III-2    Summary of silviculture sector research needs by trend
         and research category                                        76

 IV-1    Summary of agriculture sector policy issues by manage-
         ment function and basic policy area                          81
 IV-2    Summary of silviculture sector policy issues by manage-
         ment function and basic policy area                          90

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                              ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Many individuals and work groups participated in this research study.   In
particular, Dr. George W. Bailey, Environmental  Research Laboratory,  EPA,
Athens, Georgia guided the study as Project Officer.  Thomas E. Waddell,
Office of Research and Development, EPA, Washington, D. C.  assisted with
the coordination of research efforts and provided liaison support.

Special thanks go to Richard L. Duesterhaus and Glen H. Loomis, Office of
Environmental Quality Activities, U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
and the associated interagency (USDA-EPA-University) Ad Hoc Subcommittee
on the Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture.
This work group reviewed the study's plan of work, made constructive com-
ments, and subsequently recommended participants for the Evaluation Work-
shop that reviewed the Contractor's initial work.  These recommendations
included professionals of many disciplines from USDA, the universities,
and the private sector who are located throughout the nation.   All  phases
of agriculture and silviculture were considered via the assistance  of this
Subcommittee and its affiliation with the Office of the Secretary,  U.  S.
Department of Agriculture.

Particularly important to this study, also, were the individual and combined
efforts of the evaluation workshop participants (both in the Volume I  and
Volume II portions of study) who assessed the environmentally-related  trends
in agriculture and silviculture, 1976-2010.  These participants, as briefly
named below by panel area, are identified further within the report.   DPRA
sincerely acknoledges their contributions.

                                       Range  and  Pasture Management
                                        .   Glen  D.  Fulcher,  Ch.
                                           John  L.  Launchbaugh
                                           James  M.  Scholl
                                           John  Studeman

                                       Silviculture  and  Harvest Management
.   Gary Margheim                        _   Noel  Larson,  Ch.
.   Walt H.  Wischmeier                   _   George  Dl-ssrneyer
                                           Warren  C.  Harper
Irrigated Crop Production                  Stanley  J   Ursic
.   Roy S.  Rauschkalb, Ch.               ;   David  D_  Wooldridge
.   Charles  M.  Hohn
   Gerald L.  Horner
   R.  Eugene Merrill
Nonirri gated Crop Product!
•
George M. Browning, Ch.
William L. Col vi lie
Pierre L. Crosson
Velmar W. Davis
Victor J. Kilmer
Ralph L. Leonard
on


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Feedlot Production
.   Raymond C. Loehr, Ch.
.   Daniel D. Badger
   D. Eugene Becker
.   Bartley P. Cardon
   James K. Koelliker
Agriculture-Ecology Panel
.   Lloyd C. Hulbert
   H. Page Nicholson
   Fred W. Oehme
.   Walt H. Wischmeier
.   John L. Zimmerman
Within DPRA and the Tuolumne Corporation, many professional  staff and
consultants assisted with the preparation of this report:  Dr.  Raymond
E. Seltzer, Arthur C. Barker, Dr. Gary A. Davis, Dr.  S.  McCallum King,
Al H. Ringleb, and Rita D. Walker contributed importantly.   From the
Tuolumne Corporation, the principal contributors were Peter Arnold,
James L. Zeigler, and Dr. F. Bruce Lamb.
                                      Samuel G.
                                      Principal
         Unger
         Investigator

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                             EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


This "Environmental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture"
study for the Environmental Protection Agency determined and assessed those
trends in U.S. agriculture and silviculture which will  have the most signi-
ficant beneficial or adverse environmental implications in the short-term
(1985) and the long-term (2010).  Volume I identified those trends and
evaluated their environmentally germane developments in all major sub-
sectors of agriculture and silviculture.  Volume II presents a detailed
assessment of the environmental effects of selected major trends and of
their related research needs and prospective policy issues involving pollu-
tion controls in agriculture and silviculture.

Two phases of research (Volumes I and II) were involved in the study.  The
present volume, Phase II, extends the trend identification research of
Volume I by further examining those trends which were evaluated as having
relatively greater environmental implications.  In particular, for those
selected trends as shown in Exhibit 1, more detailed trend-subtrend assess-
ments were completed to determine:  (1) their current and expected exten-
siveness of use, (2) their associated productivity changes, (3) their ef-
fects on resource-use patterns, and (4) their expected pollutant changes
by media (water, air, and land) in relation to conventional practices.
On the basis of these analyses, each subtrend's ecological effects were
also estimated.

For the agriculture sector's trend assessment, an ecology workshop was
conducted to determine the expected ecological effects of the selected
trends and subtrends.  A panel of professional ecologists and agricultur-
alists utilized the Contractor's preliminary report of findings (Appendix
A) to rate, on an index scale, both the adverse and the beneficial eco-
logical effects associated with each subtrend.  For the silviculture sec-
tor's trend assessment, a comprehensive literature search was completed,
including an analysis of each subtrend's known or anticipated ecological
effects (Appendix B).  In general, relatively more environmental and eco-
logical effects research has been completed for silviculture, and hence,
a workshop evaluation approach was not considered necessary for this
sector.

For both agriculture and silviculture, three principal  categories of
ecological effects were assessed for each subtrend:  aquatic life, ter-
restrial life and human health effects.  For the silviculture sector,
two additional categories were assessed—aesthetics and recreation oppor-
tunity.  These latter environmentally-related effects categories are
especially important in silviculture and are often a principal concern
of forest management practices.

                                   xiii

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    Exhibit 1.   Trends  and  suhtrcnd*  in agriculture and silviculture
                    selected for  Phase  II assessment
Sector/Trends
                                                 Subtrcnd
                          A.   AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Crop Production
  \.Runoff and Erosion Control
  2.  Conservation Tillage
  3.  Improved Water Application
  4.  Improvement Seed and Plants
  5.
  6.
      Scouting and Integrated
      Controls
      Development of New Bio-
      logical and Chemical
      Pesticides
  7.
      Methods of Nutrient
      Application
  8.  Soil-Plant Analysis

Feedlot Production
  9.  Alternative Residual
      Disposal

Range and Pasture Management
 10.  Grazing Practices and
      Stocking Rates
 1.1   Contour farming/contour strip cropping
 1.2   Terraces and grass  waterways
 1.3   Optimizing time  of  operations
 1.4   Narrow rows
 1.5   Winter cover crop

 2.1   No-tillage
 2.2   Reduced tillage

 3.1   Furrow basins
 3.2   Land grading
 3.3   Sprinklers
 3.1   Recycling and controlling tailwater
 3.5   Irrigation scheduling and efficiency

 4.1   Weather resistance
 4.2   Salt resistance
 4.3   Production efficiency
 4.4   Disease and insect  resistant

 5.1   Surface scouting
 5.2   Remote sensing scouting
 5.3   Integrated controls

 6.1   Micro-encapsulated
 6.2   Systemic pesticides
 6.3   Surfactants for  herbicides
 6.4   Bio-degradable pesticides
 6.5  Alternative formulations
 6.6  Juvenile hormones
 6.7   Pheromones
 6.8  Sterile males
 6.9  Predators and parasites

 7.1   Foliar application
 7.2  Multiple application
 7.3  Fall application
 7.4  Liquid fertilizer
 7.5  Aerial and floater  application
 7.6  Improved nutrient placement
 7.7  Irrigation application

 8.1   Soil-Plant analysis
 9.1
      Off-site disposal—solids and
      liquids
10.1  Continuous grazing
10.2  Specialized grazing
10.3  Complementary forage seedings
10.4  Controlled livestock grazing
                        B.   SILVICULTURE SECTOR
 1.   Access  to Timber Resource




 2.   Site Preparation






 3.   Log Extraction


 4.   Utilization



 5.   Cutting System
1.1   Permanent road construction
1.2   Road maintenance
1.3   Project road construction
1.4   Road reconstruction

2.1   Log extraction
2.2   Mechanical  preparation
2.3   Burning prescription
2.4   Chemical  treatment
2.5   Fertilizer treatment
2.6   Soil moisture control

3.1   Harvest unit layout
3.2   Equipment use and development

4.1   Extraction residue recovery
A.?   Minimum size and quality extension
4.3   Sprcii:'. use enlargement

5.1   Clearcutting
                                    XIV

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Following the ecological effects assessments for agriculture and silviculture,
a comprehensive review was made of both Phase I and Phase II developments
to identify the continuing research needs and policy issues (particularly
for nonpoint sources of pollution) of agriculture and silviculture related
to the anticipated problems of controlling these sources of pollution.


                           Results of the Study


Three main types of results were obtained in this study:  (1) the identifi-
cation of the environmental and ecological effects of leading trends  in
agriculture and silviculture, (2) the identification of their related re-
search needs, and (3) the identification of their related policy issues.
Each of these are summarized as follows:

1.  Environmental and Ecological Effects

A principal result of this Phase II research was the environmental analysis
of selected trends and  subtrends from both agriculture and silviculture,  in-
cluding an assessment of each subtrend's ecological effects.

Exhibit 2 summarizes the ecological effects ratings of the ecology workshop
for the subtrends assessed in the agriculture sector.  These ratings,
either beneficial (+) or adverse (-) on a scale of 1 (minor) to 5 (major)
relative to 1976 conditions were made for the short-term (1985) and long-
term (2010).  Separate  ratings, as shown, were made for aquatic life, ter-
restrial life and human health effects.  The workshop concluded that aquatic
life and terrestrial life effects of agriculture's trends and subtrends are
not expected to change  significantly on the national level by 1985; however,
moderate to important changes can be expected by 2010 under the study's base-
line agricultural growth assumptions (Volume I).  For the most part, the
changes are expected to be beneficial,  rather than adverse, as illustrated
in Exhibit 2.  For example, trends in runoff and erosion control and in
conservation tillage methods in the cropland production subsector will gen-
erally have beneficial  aspects.  Their  net effect is not clear, however,
when both beneficial and adverse changes are predicted.  Human health ef-
fects are generally expected to be minor with  little anticipated differences
from current conditions for most of the agriculture trends and subtrends
assessed.

For the silviculture sector, similar assessments were made based on litera-
ture search findings as discussed in detail in Section  II.   In addition,
the aesthetic and recreation opportunity effects of silviculture's trends
and developments are evaluated, since in many cases, these effects are of
primary concern.  Because of silviculture's long growth-harvest cycles,
many of the aquatic, terrestrial, and human health  effects are, relative
to those of agriculture, rather short-lived.  Most  practices which alter
forest sites, e.g., access, harvest or  site preparation, will, however,
have potential adverse  effects,  including more extended aesthetic  and
recreation opportunity  impacts.
                                      xv

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                                           Exhibit 2.  Summary of ecological effects ratings  of  trends and  subtrends  In the agriculture sector
X
<
Trend
Crop





2.

3.




4.



5.


6.







7.




8.
Feed

Production
Runoff and Erosion Control




Conservation Tillage

Improved Hater Application




Improvement Seed and Plants



Scouting and Integrated
Controls

Developnent of Hew Bto-
logiccl and Chemical






Methods of Nutrient
Application



Soil Plant Analysis
lot Production


1.
1 .
1.
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
4.
4.
4.
4.
5.
5.
5.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6.
6
e.
7.
7.
7.
7
7
7
7.


1
2
3
4
5
1
2
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
G
7
8
9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8.1


Subtrend


Ecological
Effects Rating
Aquatic fern-
1985


Contour fanning/contour strip cropping +1
Terraces and grass waterways +1
Optimizing time of operations +1
Harrow rows
Winter cover crop
No-tillage
Reduced tillage
Furrow basins
Land grading
Sprinklers
0
0
+2; -\-'
+2--1
-2
-1
-1
Recycling and controlling tallwater +2
Irrigation scheduling and efficiency +1
V.'eather resistance
Salt resistance
Production efficiency
0
0
0
Disease and Insect resistant +Z
Surface scouting )
Remote sensing scouting )
Integrated controls
Micro-encapsulated
SysUrilc pesticides
Surfactants for tiiiuidties
Bio-degradable pesticides
Alternative formulations
Juvenile hormones
Phcromones
Sterile males
Predators and parasites
Foliar application
Multiple application
Fall application
Liquid fertll Izer
+1

+1

•H



+j


0
+1
-2
0
Aerial and floater application 0
Improved nutrient placement «
Irrigation application "'
Soil plant analysis

+1

2010


+4
+3
+1
+1
+1
+3-.-1
+3;-l
-3
-1
-2
+3
+1
0
-1
-1
+4
+3

+4

+3



+3


0
+1
-3
0
0
0
-v
+2

19S5
Index
+1
+1
+1
0
0
0
0
-2
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
0
+1
+1

+1

+1



+1


0
0
0
0
*1
0
0
0

stnal
?cT6~


+3
+3
+2
+1
+1
0
0
-3
-1
-1
-1
+1
0
-1
0
*3
+3

+4

+2



+3


0
+1
0
0
+2
0
0
0


Hu '.in
T9n5


0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
+1
0
0
0
0
+1
0

0

+1



+1


0
0
-1

0
0
0
0


HiMlth
2010


0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
-1
-1
0
+1
0
0
0
0
+2
+1

+2

+2



+3


0
0
-1

0
0
p
0

                  T.Alternative  Residual
                      Disposal

                 Rango and  Pasture  Management
                 ~T6T Grazing  Practices  and
                      Stocking Rates
                                9.1
Off-site disposal- solids and
liquids
                               10.1  Continuous  grazing
                               10.2  Specialized grazing
                               10.3  Complementary  forage  seedlngs
                               10.4  Controlled  livestock  grazing
                                                                                          -1
                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                             +1
                                                              +2

                                                               0
                                                              +1
+2

 0
+1
+1


+3
-1
»3
-1


 0
 0
 0
Index rating - beneficial  (+)  or adverse  (-)  ecological effects rating on a scsle of 1 to 5, where 1 • minor. 2
3 • moderate, 4 • Important,  and 5 •  major.
Aquatic effects of no-till  and reduced tillage  were  divided  Into  two areas.  The^ir.

cide use with those practices.
                                                                                                                                    United.

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2.  Research Needs

A continuing need exists to improve the information and data base for con-
ducting meaningful environmental effects assessments in agriculture and
silviculture.  In this study, four categories of research needs were enum-
erated and discussed:

        1.  Production efficiency research
        2.  Pollution measurement research
        3.  Pollution reduction research
        4.  Ecological impact research

A fifth research category, extensiveness research, is also implicitly re-
quired; however, this research is generally beyond EPA's primary responsibility,

Production efficiency research is necessary to assess the direct and indirect
pollution effects of those technologies used to improve production yield and
efficiency.  Pollution measurement research is needed to determine the actual
types and quantities of pollution generated by alternative agricultural  and
silvicultural production processes under various environmental  conditions.
Pollution reduction research is needed to assess the effects of alternative
methods to reduce the generation of pollutants.  And, ecological  impact re-
search is needed to quantify the various types of environmental  and eco-
logical effects associated with both individual and composite production
activities.

A detailed summary of this study's identified research needs for the agri-
culture  sector is presented in Exhibit III-l  of the text.  Specific re-
search needs are arranged by agriculture subsector and by the above four
research categories.  A similar summary for the silviculture sector is
shown in Exhibit 111-2.

Insofar as the control of pollution is a principal goal of EPA,  two of
the above research categories, i.e., production efficiency research and
pollution reduction research, are of primary importance.  Production ef-
ficiency research, for instance, is an indirect form of pollution control,
for improvements in production efficiency will inhibit the expanded use of
potentially polluting resources to meet specified output levels.   Pollu-
tion reduction research examines those activities and resources which,
when applied, will directly affect pollution levels.

Of important note is the finding of this Phase II study that it is pre-
sently impossible to specify an established and detailed, heirarchical
delineation of research needs.  The study's workshop recognized that it
is not readily apparent which research activities would have the greatest
expected environmental effects.  Present knowledge, for instance, is in-
sufficient to determine whether it is better to expand research to develop
improved seeds and plants to enhance production efficiency or whether to
develop improved no-till methods for run-off and erosion control in order
to most effectively control pollution levels in the future.
                                   xvn

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The following examples of  research  needs  as  defined for the various  sub-
sectors  of  agriculture and silviculture  in the production  efficiency and
the pollution reduction research categories  are  illustrative of both the
findings and the  complexity of  the  environmental  implications  of trends  in
agriculture  and silviculture:
       Sector/Subsector

       Agriculture Sector

        . Crop Production
                                         Type of Research Need
Production Efficiency    Pollution Reduction
        . Feedlot Production
        . Range and Pasture
       Silviculture Sector
        . Harvest Management
       . Stand Control
Develop more efficient
farm implements for
soil and water manage-
ment.

Develop more resistant
seeds and plants, in-
cluding resistance to
weather, insects, salt
and nematodes.

Develop sources, both
legume and non-legume,
of biological nitrogen
fixation.

Develop more effective
integrated pest control
systems including im-
proved, more effective
chemical and biological
pesticides.

Assess the efficiency
and feasibility of
recycling wastes in
feeding rations
Develop more  effective
grazing systems utiliz-
ing innovations such as
complementary forage
seedings.
Determine  optimum level
of utilization of bio-
mass in commercial
forests and means of
projecting environmen-
tal effects under
varying cutting levels.

Determine  minimum
amount of  site pre-
paration to meet
requirements for
regeneration.
Develop  and determine
effectiveness of alter-
native reduced tillage
methods  for lowering
pollutant  losses, e.g.,
nutrients, pesticides,
sediment.

Develop  and determine
the feasibility of
water renovation
through  filtering
and desalting.

Develop  fertilizers
designed to reduce
pollution  effects,
e.g., micro-
encapsulation.
Evaluate ration rotation
as a means  of  reducing
the potential  build-up
of copper,  arsenic, and
sodium derived from
feed rations.
Determine  kinds, volumes,
and sizes  of material
that should be left
on site to aid in
controlling pollution
resulting  from varying
levels  of  utilization.

Develop equipment to
minimize pollution effects
of site preparation.
                                         XVI11

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Besides these examples of production efficiency and pollution reduction
research needs which can either directly or indirectly affect pollution
levels in the future, numerous research requirements, as summarized in
Exhibits III-l and III-2 of the report, involving pollution measurement
and ecological impacts are also needed.  Such monitoring activities are
essential within the context of research both to better understand the
impacts of pollution in the environment and to assess the progress of de-
velopments in agriculture and silviculture.

3.  Policy Issues

The third major result of this study was its identification of prospective
environmental policy issues which emerge as a consequence of the environ-
mental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture.  Such issues
are germane because of EPA's legislative requirements (such as under the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act, PL 92-500) to establish effective pol-
lution controls for both point and non-point sources.

Agriculture and silviculture pollution control can be attained in only three
basic ways:

        (a)  the control or treatment of wastes generated by production
             systems;
        (b)  the control of use of polluting inputs; and
        (c)  the control of management practices to reduce pollutants
             generated.

Policy issues arise as a direct consequence of the consideration of public
measures to influence any or all of these control approaches.

A general summary of the policy issues identified in this study, categorized
by the three types of control as indicated, is presented in Exhibit IV-1 in
the report.  For both the agriculture and silviculture sectors, policy is-
sues involving the control or treatment of wastes, jDer se^ may generally
lack' feasible implementation alternatives because of the dispersed and
fugitive nature of non-point sources of pollution.  Consequently, rela-
tively more policy issues were identified in relation either to the control
of inputs or to the control of management practices.  The following examples
of policy issues germane to input and management practice controls are
illustrative of the findings of this study by subsector of agriculture and
silviculture.
                                    xnx

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                                    Basic Policy Area
  Sector/Subsector     Control  of Inputs
Agriculture
  .  Crop Production
Affect the amounts
and types of resources
used, including land,
nutrients, pesticides,
water, etc.
                         Control of Management
                               Practices
Affect run-off and erosion
controls, conservation
tillage practices, water
application practices,
wind erosion controls,
crop sequencing practices,
and others.
    Feedlot
      Production
Affect land-use off-
site disposal require-
ments, and feedlot size.
     Range and Pasture
      Management       Affect use of land,
                       nutrients and pesti-
                       cides.
Silviculture
   . Harvest Manage-
    ment, Stand Con-
    trol and Damage
    Control
Affect use of land,
nutrients and pesti-
cides.
Develop and affect use of
alternative residual dis-
posal methods.  Control
practices via feedlot size.
                         Affect grazing practices
                         and stocking rates.
Affect access developments,
site preparation practices
and fire control practices.
The policy issues identified here are stated without specific consideration
of the type of implementation method which may be feasible or most prac-
ticable.  In actuality, alternative implementation methods may be appli-
cable, e.g., regulations, economic incentives, education, or public invest-
ments.  Further, various indirect policy issues, such as foreign agricultural
trade issues, were not assessed in this study, yet such issues will exo-
genously affect environmental quality management needs in the agriculture
and silviculture production sectors of the U.S. economy.
                                     xx

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                                SECTION I

                               INTRODUCTION


As was documented in Volume I of this two-volume report, the agriculture
and^silviculture sectors of the U. S. economy are major contributors of
environmental pollution.  However, because these pollutants are generally
widely dispersed, their environmental effects are often uncertain; and,
based upon available data, neither the scope nor the full effects of agri-
cultural and silvicultural pollutants are accurately known.

The goal of this research was not to isolate agriculture's and silviculture's
absolute contribution to overall environmental pollution; rather, at best,
this study sought to determine the relative environmental effects that
trends and developments would likely have in the future vis-a-vis the cur-
rent environmental quality.

That is, the study basically asked:  "What changes in environmental  effects
are likely if trends and developments in agriculture and silviculture con-
tinue into the short-term (1985) and the long-term (2010)?"  Within  this
context, what specific trends (or component subtrends) may eventually pro-
duce either beneficial or adverse environmental effects in comparison to
current, conventional practices.

In Volume I of this study, the emphasis was toward trend identification and
a relative ranking of environmentally-related agricultural and silvicultural
trends according to their expected environmental implications—either bene-
ficial or adverse.  Volume II extends the environmental assessment of the
most highly rated trends as determined in Volume I.

The Volume II assessment ultimately focused on the potential ecological ef-
fects of specific practices and probable developments, or subtrends, within
selected trends.  The primary ecological effects evaluated were aquatic
life, terrestrial life and human health impacts.  Additionally, however,
the assessment included a detailed analysis of each  subtrend's extensive-
ness of use, productivity changes, resource use patterns, and pollutant
changes by media.  This latter analysis provided the basis for an ecology
panel workshop for the agricultural sector in which  the ecological effects
of each selected subtrend-trend were investigated.

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                           A.   Scope of Study
This study for the Environmental  Protection Agency sought to determine
and assess those current and emerging trends in U. S.  agriculture and
silviculture which will  have the  most significant environmental  impli-
cations—either beneficial  or adverse.   The two main objectives  of the
analysis were:

      (1)  to assess the environmental  implications and impacts  of both
           short-term (1985) and  long-term (2010) trends in American
           agriculture and silviculture, and

      (2)  to identify pertinent  environmental  issues, associated re-
           search needs  and policy issues.

To accomplish these objectives, two phases  of work were involved in the
overall  study:

      Phase I, the subject of the Volume I  report, determined on a
      priority basis the major environmentally-related trends in agri-
      culture and silviculture, and

      Phase II, the subject of this Volume  II report,  assessed the en-
      vironmental effects (particularly the ecological impacts)  of
      selected major trends, and  identified associated research  needs
      and policy issues.

In the conduct of this research,  evaluation workshops  comprised  of agri-
cultural, silvicultural, and other basic science professionals were util-
ized to rate, assess and modify,  as needed  the  Contractor's Phase I and
Phase II preliminary findings.  The Phase II workshop  panel and  procedures
are described more fully below.
                         B.   Phase II Procedures
In preparation for the agriculture sector ecological  effects workshop of
Phase II, the Contractor prepared an interim background summary for the
participants.  This report documented for each subtrend its current and
projected extensiveness of use, productivity effects, resource use changes
and pollutant changes by media, and this documentation served as the in-
formation basis for the workshop assessment.  (This background summary,
plus workshop evaluation forms, are included in Appendix A.)

In Phase II, a single panel of experts was selected to assess the ecolog-
ical effects of subtrends and trends in agriculture—covering all sub-
sectors, i.e., crop production (both nonirrigated and irrigated), feedlot
production, and range and pasture management.  Subtrends and trends in
silviculture were separately assessed because of the significant differences

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of this sector's growth-production-harvest cycles and of generally inter-
mittent environmental-ecological effects of its activity in any given lo-
cation.  This assessment of silviculture! trends was based principally on
research literature.  A background summary of research findings and con-
clusions for the silviculture sector is included in Appendix B.

The ecology workshop participants for the agriculture sector met in general
sessions to assess and rate the potential change in ecological  effects of
each subtrend within the selected trends.  In particular, three types of
ecosystem effects were evaluated:  aquatic life, terrestrial life and
human health.  A fourth type of effect, wildlife habitat, originally pro-
jected by the Contractor, was determined by the workshop to be  properly
considered within either the aquatic life or terrestrial life categories.
Hence, only three types of effect were included in the final analysis;
however, wildlife effects were frequently described within either the
aquatic or terrestrial categories.

With the Contractor's background summary as a guide, the workshop first
assessed the summary provided and modified the summary conclusions where
necessary.  This discussion led to a common basis of understanding for
the subsequent ecological effects ratings for 1985 and 2010 relative to
1976 (or current conditions).  Also, it was agreed that the assessment
would accept the Phase I (Volume I) workshop panels' judgements as to the
probable extensiveness of use of each of the subtrends in relative terms,
i.e., the index ratings of the direction and magnitude of each  subtrend
as determined in Phase I.  The Contractor supplemented these ratings with
quantified data whenever possible.

The workshop was asked to rate the direction and magnitude of change in
ecological effects which could be expected by 1985 and by 2010  from the
current period, 1976, as follows:


                                                          Relative
      Type of Effect               Direction              Magnitude

      Aquatic life I/              (+) = beneficial       1 = minor
      Terrestrial life I/          (-) = adverse          2 = limited
      Human health                                        3 = moderate
                                                          4 = important
                                                          5 = major

      —/ Includes wildlife habitat

As was explained to the workshop, the rating scale from 1 to 5, or minor
to major, was purely judgemental not only within the panel, but to other
investigators.  Nevertheless, the ratings and their dispersion  across
subtrends-trends were deemed as important indicators of environmental ef-
fects.   Furthermore, it was the objective of this workshop that "consensus"
ratings be obtained from the panelists--rather than completely independent
ratings.  The rationale for this approach was that it would better inte-
grate the ideas and knowledge of these professionals and that while

-------
differences would exist, such differences would be best resolved through
qualifying remarks and their rationale for any given rating.  (Note:
Further assessments of distributions in initial rating responses are de-
sirable, but they were not considered statistically useful in this study
since relatively few panelists were involved and pre-workshop ratings were
not specifically requested.)


                      C.  The Ecology Workshop


The participants of the Phase II ecology workshop for the agriculture sector
represented a cross-section of professional scientists whose primary acti-
vities are directly involved with environmental and ecological effects of
man's activities.  These participants and their principal areas of exper-
tise are as follows:

       Participant                       Area of Expertise

    Dr. Lloyd C. Hulbert         Aquatic and terrestrial effects
    Manhattan, Kansas

    Dr. S. Mac King              Agronomy, soils and environmental
    Wheaton, Illinois            effects of agricultural practices

    Dr. H. P. Nicholson          Human health and environmental
    Athens, Georgia              effects of pesticides in soil and
                                 water

    Dr. Fred W. Oehme            Toxicology and human health effects
    Manhattan, Kansas

    Dr. Walt H. Wischmeier       Runoff and soil erosion in relation
    Lafayette, Indiana           to alternative agricultural practices

    Dr. John L. Zimmerman        Aquatic and terrestrial effects, in-
    Manhattan, Kansas            eluding wildlife

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                               SECTION II

              ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS ASSESSMENT


Only selected trends in agriculture and silviculture, based on the Phase I
evaluation, were included in this Phase II environmental and ecological ef-
fects assessment.  Each of the trends and associated subtrends included
were previously assessed as major environmentally-related trends by the
Phase I evaluation workshop.  These trends are as outlined in Exhibit
II-l, below, and include ten trends from the agriculture sectors and five
from silviculture, as  shown.

In order to conduct the more detailed environmental and ecological effect
assessment of Phase II, additional literature reviews were completed and
research findings were summarized.  For the agriculture trends selected,
an interim background  summary report was prepared and distributed to the
ecology workshop participants as a basis for their workshop evaluations.
This background summary material is included in Appendix A, and it pri-
marily contains data on the extensiveness of use of each subtrend, pro-
ductivity effects, resource use changes, and pollutant changes by media
for each subtrend compared to other related conventional practices.  Spec-
ific references to the research findings as reported are also cited.  For
the silviculture trends, a similar review of literature was completed as
summarized in Appendix B; however, a workshop assessment was not conducted.

The principal focus of the agriculture sector workshop assessment was on
each trend-subtrends'  potential ecosystem impacts relative to current (1976)
conditions.  In particular, three types of ecological effects were evaluated
and rated:  aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health.  Judgemental
rating values were determined for each type of ecological effect cor-
responding to either beneficial (+) or adverse (-) changes in effect on a
scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major, as explained in detail  in
Section I, above.  The workshop participants accepted the challenge of such
a relative rating approach, realizing the variability that obviously exists
in not only the presence of known pollutants but especially in the loadings
or dosage levels of pollutants as they interface with receptor organisms.

Ideally, ecological  assessments would be conducted under much more rigorous
conditions with detailed quantitative statistics regarding pollutants, re-
ceptor characteristics such as assimilative capacities, organisms present,
end-uses, and others.  Such data are generally meager, however, and pro-
fessional judgements are mandatory if even relative indicators of environ-
mental  effects of agriculture's and silviculture's production activities
are to be obtained.

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          Exhibit  II-l.  Summary of top ranked (vis-a-vis their environmental
              implications) Phase I trends in agriculture and silviculture
                      including identification of Phase II trends
Phase I Phase II Trend
Agriculture Trends Workshop Rank Numbers: Agriculture
Runoff & Erosion Control (Nonirrigated) If
Conservation Tillage (Nonirrigated)
Improved Water Application (Irrigated)
Runoff & Erosion Control (Irrigated)
Improvement of Seeds & Plants (Nonirrigated)
Scouting & Integrated Controls (Non-
irrigated)
Developing New Biological & Chemical
Pesticides (Nonirrigated)
Feedlot Design for Waste Management
(Feedlot) _3/
Feedlot Size (Feedlot) _3/
Alternative Residual Disposal (Feedlot)
Method of Nutrient Application (Irrigated)
Grazing Practices (Range & Pasture)
Stocking Rates (Range & Pasture)
Developing Integrated Controls (Irrigated)
Renovation (Range & Pasture)
Soil Plant Analysis (Irrigated)
Odor Control (Feedlot)
Using Increased Resources (Range &
Pasture)
Feed Efficiency and Rations (Feedlot)
Range & Pasture Improvement (Range &
Pasture)
1 "
2
3
4 .
V 1
2
3
1
5 4
6 "
7
8
9
10
11
121
13 J
14 -
5

—
--
9
7
10
10
5
15
16 8
17
18
19
20
     Silviculture Trends
Phase I Rank by _4/
Silviculture Panel
   Phase II Trend
Numbers: Silviculture
Access to Timber Resource
Site Preparation
Log Extraction
Utilization; Logs & Residues
Cutting System
         1
         2
         3
         4
         9
\l In Phase I, agriculture trends represented four subsectors:   (1) Irrigated
   Crop Production; (2) Nonirrigated Crop Production;  (3)  Feedlot Production;
   and, (4) Range & Pasture Management.
2/
—  Brackets indicate combined agriculture trends for Phase II assessment.
—  In Feedlot Production, the first two ranked trends  were excluded from
   Phase II because EPA point source analysis and controls will  apply.
—  Silviculture trends were ranked separately in Phase I by the  Silviculture
   panel and were not  included in overall workshop rankings.

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The environmental and ecological effects assessments for agriculture and
silviculture, which follow,  represent both research findings from the
literature and expert judgements.  The ecological effects of trends in
agriculture were primarily evaluated in a workshop setting as previously
described.  The panel itself placed most credence on the direction of eco-
logical effects as defined below, and tried to reflect differential rela-
tive changes among subtrends via the rating scale adopted.  However, it is
impossible to precisely  indicate in an index fashion all potential effects
under all possible conditions.  Each subtrend itself might present major eco-
logical problems on a local-regional level.


                     A.  Agriculture Sector Trends


The agriculture sector trends are divided into three subsectors in Phase
II:  crop production (irrigated and nonirrigated), feedlot production, and,
range and pasture management.   (In Phase I, the irrigated and nonirrigated
crop production subsectors were assessed separately.)  Ten (10) trends and
41 subtrends from these  three subsectors, as shown in Exhibit II-2, are
assessed.  In particular, the trends numbered 1 thru 8 are selected trends
from the crop production subsector; trend 9 is from the feedlot production
subsector; trend 10 is from  the range and pasture management subsector.

The rationale for the selection of these trends was that basically each
trend was rated as having relatively high environmental implications by
the Phase I evaluation workshop -- either in the aggregate or by the re-
spective subsector panels of experts.  At least one trend from each sub-
sector was included; however, for the feedlot production subsector, the two
most highly rated trends were excluded because the Environmental Protection
Agency's point-source control programs do or will cover the environmental
effects of these trends.  Hence, the third-ranked feedlot trend, residuals
disposal, was selected for this analysis.

As was shown in Exhibit  II-l, above, the crop production subsectors (non-
irrigated and irrigated) generally have the production-related trends with
the greatest environmental implications; consequently, the emphasis of this
assessment is on the crop production subsector environmental  and ecological
effects.  Obviously, however, further assessments of additional trends from
all subsectors of agriculture are possible and relevant.

1.  Runoff and Erosion Control  (1)

A total of five subtrends were evaluated as components of the runoff and
erosion control trend.   Three of these, contour farming, terraces and grass
waterways, and use of winter cover crops are recognized methods of stabil-
izing soil.   Optimizing time of farm operations and the use of narrow rows
are also considered as erosion control  practices.  The basic principle be-
hind all five of these practices is that they impede runoff and retard sedi-
ment movement.   The ecology workshop's ratings for each subtrend are sum-
marized below and are followed by a discussion of each subtrend's exten-
siveness of use, environmental factors, ecological  effects and research needs

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         Exhibit  II-2.   Summary of selected Phase  II trends and
                        subtrends in agriculture
Trend
                                           Subtrend
Crop Production
  LRunoffand Erosion Control
 .2.  Conservation Tillage
  3.  Improved Water Application
  4.  Improvement Seed and Plants
  5.
  6.
Scouting and Integrated
Controls
Development of New Bio-
logical  and Chemical
  7.  Methods of Nutrient
      Application
  8.  Soil Plant Analysis

Feedlot Production
  9.  Alternative Residual
      Disposal

Range and Pasture Management
 10.  Grazing Practices and
      Stocking Rates
1.1   Contour farming/contour strip cropping
1.2   Terraces and grass waterways
1.3   Optimizing time of operations
1.4   Narrow rows
1.5   Winter cover crop

2.1   No-tillage
2.2   Reduced tillage

3.1   Furrow basins
3.2   Land grading
3.3   Sprinklers
3.4   Recycling and controlling tailwater
3.5   Irrigation scheduling and efficiency

4.1   Weather resistance
4.2   Salt resistance
4.3   Production efficiency
4.4   Disease and insect resistant

5.1   Surface scouting
5.2   Remote sensing scouting
5.3   Integrated controls

6.1   Micro-encapsulated
6.2   Systemic pesticides
6.3   SuriuCtsnts icr rieruicitjcs
6.4   Bio-degradable pesticides
6.5   Alternative formrlations
6.6   Juvenile hormones
6.7   Pheromones
6.8   Sterile males
6.9   Predators and parasites

7.1   Foliar application
7.2   Multiple application
7.3   Fall application
7.4   Liquid fertilizer
7.5   Aerial and floater application
7.6   Improved nutrient placement
7.7   Irrigation application

8.1   Soil  plant analysis
                             9.1   Off-site disposal- solids and
                                  liquids
                            10.1   Continuous grazing
                            10.2  Specialized grazing
                            10.3  Complementary forage seedings
                            10.4  Controlled livestock grazing

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Subtrend
1.1 Contour farming/contour
    strip cropping
1.2 Terraces and grass
    waterways
1.3 Optimizing time of
    operations
1.4 Narrow rows
1.5 Winter cover crops
  Aquatic
1985   2010
 +1

 +1

 +1
  0
  0
+4

+3

+1
+1
+1
       Terrestrial
       1985   2010
     (Index Rating)*-
+1

+1

+1
 0
 0
+3

+3

+2
+1
+1
               Human Health
               1985    2010
0

0

0
0
0
 0

 0

 0
 0
-1
*/
-  Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological  effects rating
   on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major
Contour Farming/Contour Strip Cropping (1.1)

With this subtrend, farming operations are performed according to land
elevations.  Strip cropping allows strips of grass, close-growing crops,
or fallow to alternate with cultivated crops on the contour.

Extensiveness - In 1964, 20,250,000 acres of grain and row crops were farmed
on the contour.  By 1969, extensiveness had dropped to 14,570,000 acres,
a 25 percent decrease.  Further decreases in crops farmed on  the contour
were estimated for 1976.  However, based upon evaluation workshop ratings
(Phase I, Volume 1), contouring was expected to increase in use from moder-
ate levels in 1976 to major levels by 2010.  This projected increase results
from anticipated non-point source controls to maintain and/or achieve water
quality standards by the implementation of certain management practices such
as contour farming.

Environmental Factors - Productivity of contoured land will be comparable
to straight row farming.  Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use pat-
terns will not change with contour farming.

Soil loss will be reduced an average of 30-50 percent with contouring alone
on moderate slopes.  On steeper slopes or on land with topographic limita-
tions, contouring will be much less effective in reducing soil loss.  Ni-
trates and phosphorus will also be reduced in surface water,  but the re-
ductions may not be proportional to soil  loss reductions.  Pesticide resi-
dues will be reduced in surface water, but these reductions will, also, be
less than those for soil and perhaps less than those for nutrients.

Losses of nitrates and pesticide residues into ground water are not likely
to be decreased significantly with contouring.

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Ecological  Effects - Contouring will  have beneficial  aquatic and terres-
trial effects.   These effects will  be minor in 1985 because the extensive-
ness of use for contouring (over 1976 use) will  not have increased signif-
icantly.    The  effects will,  however, be moderate for aquatic and important
for terrestrial by 2010 as extensiveness does increase.   Decreased tur-
bidity in the aquatic environment will  lead to greater species diversity.'
A reduction in  pesticide residues in  surface water will  also have a positive
effect on aquatic life.  The  positive effect will increase with the antici-
pated use of less persistent  pesticides in the future.  The terrestrial ef-
fects will  also be beneficial since topsoil losses are reduced, nutrient
cycles are retained, and soil will  be maintained in a better condition.
Based upon present knowledge, pesticide residues at present levels in the
nation's  surface water are not known  to be hazardous  to  humans.  Thus, re-
ductions  in pesticide residues with contouring will have no significant ef-
fect on human health.  Should future  considerations of pesticide residues
in surface water result in these residues being considered a potential human
health hazard,  then the human health  effects from contouring would be
beneficial.

Research  Needs  - Additional research  is needed to determine the effective-
                   on reducing nutrient and pesticide losses.  Limited data
                   specific experiments, but more are needed to determine
                                                             nutrient formu-
                                                             human health
ness of contouring
are available from
losses from different soil types and different pesticide and
lations.  Research on the potential dangers of pesticides to
should be continued.

Terraces and Grass Waterways (1.2)

Terraces are soil embankments constructed across a slope to control erosion
by diverting or storing surface runoff.  Natural or constructed grass water-
ways are also used to conduct surface water from cropland.

Extensiveness - In 1969, 16,430,000 acres (approximately 6%) of cropland
had terraces.  In 1976, terrace use was estimated to have neither increased
or decreased significantly from 1969 use.  While terraces and grass water-
ways were not important in irrigated crop production in 1976, they will in-
crease to minor levels of use by 2010.  Use of terraces in  nonirrigated crop
production will also increase by 2010, but it is not likely to be as ex-
tensive as contouring.

Environmental Factors - Some terrace and grass waterways land will be taken
out of production, but cropping intensities per cropped acre and on slopes
will  increase.   Thus, overall productivity will remain unchanged.  In gen-
eral, fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use patterns will not change
significantly.   Fertilizer use could increase slightly on a per acre basis
if production per cropped acre is expected to increase to compensate for
land taken out of production by terraces.  Additionally, the incidence of
predators and pests could increase with terrace or grass waterway cover
area.   This would require an increased use of pesticides in some areas.
                                      10

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Terraces and grass waterways are more effective than contouring in con-
trolling sediment loss and surface runoff.  While contouring reduces soil
loss 30-50 percent, reductions with terraces are usually expected to be
greater.  Reductions in nitrate, phosphorus, and pesticide losses will  also
tend to be greater for terraces and grass waterways compared to contouring,
since both surface runoff and soil loss are less.  Based on limited research,
nitrates in ground water may also be reduced with terrace systems.  Pesti-
cide loss in ground water will remain unchanged or decrease slightly (com-
pared to conventional farming techniques).

geological Effects - While terraces and grass waterways are usually more
effective in runoff and erosion control than contouring, extensiveness  of
use is  lower for terraces.  For this reason, the intensity of ecological
effects of terraces is comparable to that for contouring; minor aquatic
and terrestrial effects in 1985, and moderate aquatic and terrestrial  ef-
fects in 2010.  Beneficial aquatic effects result from decreased turbidity
and pesticide  residues and increased species diversity.  Water will  also be
conserved with terrace systems.  Terraces and grass waterways have increased
vegetative cover, creating greater wildlife species diversity, wildlife habi-
tat, and natural pathways for animal populations to travel.  These terres-
trial effects will be minimized if terraces and waterways are kept mowed
or are farmed.

Additional terrestrial effects include retention of topsoil and nutrient
cycles and preservation of soil integrity.  No significant human health
effects will result from this subtrend, since pesticide residues at present
levels in surface water are not considered a human health danger.  Sediment
does contain bound organics.  With large reductions in sediment, the in-
creased organics could cause an unpleasant taste or odor in drinking water.
However, this  potential problem would be one of economics not human health.

Research Needs - Since large reductions in water sediment could increase
the relative concentration of organics and degrade drinking water quality,
sed-iment standards for drinking water may need to be developed.  Research
data are needed to compare the effectiveness of alternative soil erosion
measures in controlling nutrient losses.  Research and public education are
needed to determine the best maintenance management of terraces and grass
waterways for wildlife habitat.

Optimizing Time of Operations (1.3)

With this practice, farming operations are performed to minimize the time
that the soil  is bare.  For most areas, this means a change from fall
plowing to spring plowing.

Extensiveness  - The number of cropland acres plowed in the spring in 1976
is not known,  but the tendency for farmers to spring plow and plant earlier
was judged to  be increasing.  Extensiveness was estimated at a moderate
level in 1976 and will increase to an important level by 1985.  Use should
remain fairly constant between 1985 and 2010.
                                      11

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Environmental Factors - In some areas yields per acre will  be increased
with proper timing of operations, but in other areas, a wet spring may
extend tillage-planting operations beyond optimum dates, resulting in
lower yields.  Thus, overall productivity is not likely to be signifi-
cantly changed with this subtrend.  Fertilizer herbicide and insecticide
use patterns are expected to remain unchanged.

The optimizing of pesticide applications to avoid significant runoff from
excessive rainfall events will be facilitated by more sophisticated weather
forecasting methods.  It is anticipated that such eventual  sophistication
by 2010 will greatly enhance application timing and significantly reduce
losses and improve pesticide effectiveness.

Spring plowing will reduce soil loss in most areas, but reductions will be
very dependent upon previous crop, soil type, climate, and topographical
limitations.  Average reductions for soil loss based on limited research
findings are estimated at 10-20 percent.  Crop residues remaining through
the winter can further reduce soil losses.   Nutrients and pesticide resi-
dues in surface water are expected to remain constant or decrease slightly.
This subtrend will have no significant effect on nitrates and pesticides
entering ground water, although spring plowing compared to fall  plowing may
increase vertical nutrient movement.

Ecological Effects - Small decreases in sediment and turbidity will have
minor beneficial aquatic effects in 1985 and 2010.  Terrestrial  effects
tend to be two-fold with this subtrend.  The land will benefit from reten-
tion of topsoil and nutrient cycles.  Wildlife will have increased winter
food supply and a more structured winter environment when plowing is done
in the spring and not the fall.  Terrestrial effects will be minor in 1985,
with limited effects in 2010.  Since nutrients and pesticides in surface
and ground water will not be significantly reduced with optimum timing of
operations, human health effects will not change significantly.

Research Needs - Continued research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness
of management practices as optimizing time of operations, in controlling
soil loss and reducing nutrients and pesticides in the nation's waters.
The development of more efficient farm implements would allow for speedier
spring tillage - planting operations and reduce the necessity of fall plowing
for spring plants.

Narrow Rows (1.4)

With narrow rows, the distance between adjoining rows of seeded crops is
reduced and the number of plants per acre is increased.  Corn and soybeans
are especially adaptable to this practice.

Extensiveness - Since 1973, 25 percent of the farm operators in certain
corn producing areas have switched to narrow row corn.  Narrow row crop
production was estimated at moderate levels for 1976 and expected to in-
crease to major levels by 2010.  Currently this practice is applicable
to corn and soybeans.
                                      12

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Environmental Factors - Overall productivity on a per acre basis will in-
crease with narrow rows.  These increases could average 10-20 percent
depending upon type of crop, soil conditions, climate, and other crop
management practices.  Fertilizer and herbicide use will increase with
the use of narrower rows.  More plants per acre will increase the total
fertilizer requirement as much as 30-40 percent to meet the needs of the
crop.  However, only slight increases in herbicide use are anticipated;
and insecticide use will not change with this practice.

Narrow rows will not only provide more cover for the land, but will provide
the cover more quickly.  This will reduce the amount of soil loss, especially
during the first two months of a crop year, but average reductions that  can
be expected are not documented.  Although fertilizer use increases, the
number of plants utilizing the nutrients also increases, so total nutrients
in surface water will probably not increase and could decrease slightly.
There will be little effect on concentrations of pesticides in surface water
or on nitrates or pesticides concentrations in the ground water.

 Ecological  Effects - Narrow row practices  will  have no significant ecolog-
 ical  effects in 1985,  and only minor beneficial  aquatic and terrestrial
 effects  in 2010.   The  beneficial  effects result from decreased  sediment
 in surface water and retention of topsoil  and  nutrient cycles on  the land.
 Since nutrient and pesticide concentrations  in  the environment  are not  ex-
 pected to change with  narrow row practices,  there  will  be  no  significant
 human health effects.

 Research Needs  - Use of narrow rows  is  an  economical  way to increase crop
 production without increasing  environmental  effects.   Therefore  the use
 and  development of other row crops,  such as  cotton,  suitable  for  narrow
 rows should be  investigated.   Optimal  use  of fertilizers and  herbicides
 with narrow row practices needs  to  be more fully defined.

 Winter Cover Crops (1.5)

 Close grown winter cover crops are  used  to protect and improve  the soil
 between  periods of regular crop  production.  These are grown when  there
 would otherwise be no  growing  plants or  crop residues  to protect  the soil
 from erosion and  runoff.   Cover crops  can serve as  a  second  crop  in some
 regions, especially further south,  or may  be plowed  under  in  the  spring
 for  soil improvement.

 Extensiveness - Actual  acreages  of  cropland  planted  with winter  cover
 crops in 1976 are  not  known but  estimated  to be minor  by the  Phase I
 evaluation  workshop (Volume I).   By  1985 and 2010,  use of  winter  cover
 crops will  increase to  limited levels.   In the  South,  80-90 percent of
 the  cropland may be planted with  winter  crops.   However, some of  this crop-
 land  should  undoubtedly be  classified under  double-cropping rather than
winter crops grown  for  cover.   In other  areas,  the  agronomic  potential  for
winter cover crops  for  a second  income crop  or  for soil  improvement is
 substantial,  although  economic factors are currently marginal.
                                      13

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Environmental  Factors - Productivity will  vary from region to region de-
pending upon climatic limitations.   In the areas where winter cover crops
(excluding certain winter row crops grown  further south on a double-
cropping system)  can be used as a second income crop, total  yearly pro-
duction per acre  would normally increase.   Additionally, winter cover crops
can be used for winter grazing of livestock,  an economic benefit to the '
farm operator.  However, winter cover crops in some areas with a dry cli-
mate or with an unseasonly dry winter and  spring will reduce the soil
moisture content  and cause water stress on the following spring crop.

This could result in significantly lower yearly production per acre es-
pecially if the winter cover crop is used  for soil improvement and not as
a second income crop.

Insecticide use patterns will not change significantly with winter cover
crops.  Herbicide use per acre may increase slightly, especially if a no-
till crop will follow in the spring.  Fertilizer use will vary with the
use of the winter cover crop.  If the cover crop is plowed under in the
spring, then the nutrients are simply recycled and fertilizer use will in-
crease little or not at all.  Significantly increased fertilizer use, up to
100 percent increase, would be required for some winter cover crops grown
as a second income crop.

Winter cover crops will tend to give slight to moderate reductions in soil
loss and are comparable to leaving stalkly crop residues through the winter.
Nutrient loss to surface water will depend upon the additional use of fer-
tilizer.  Nutrient levels will be decreased slightly if commercial fertilizer
use is not  increased, but total yearly nutrient loss may increase if ferti-
lizer use is greatly increased.  Nitrate leaching into ground water will be
reduced without increased fertilizer use but won't be significantly changed
with increased fertilizer use.  Pesticide  losses to surface and ground water
should not  change.

Ecological  Effects - There will be no significant ecological effects from
winter cover crops in 1985.  In 2010, minor beneficial aquatic and ter-
restrial effects  will result from reductions in soil loss.  Increased use
of paraquat or similar chemicals could potentially have a minor adverse
human health effect in 2010.  Direct contact with this herbicide during
application is particularly hazardous to humans.

Research Needs -  Continued pesticide research is needed to develop effec-
tive alternatives to the use of paraquat and other toxic pesticides.  Addi-
tional research is needed to determine the extensiveness of winter cover
crops, associated fertilizer use, and the  effectiveness of this practice
in reducing soil  and nutrient losses.

2.  Conservation  Tillage (2)

Conservation tillage covers a broad category of tillage methods that re-
quire less soil disturbance during seed planting and crop growth than the
conventional soil inversions with moldboard plowing.  Within conservation
                                     14

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 tillage,  two  subtrends,  no-tillage  and  reduced  tillage,  are  included  for
 detailed  evaluation.   This  evaluation includes  extensiveness  of  use,  en-
 vironmental factors,  ecological  effects and  research  needs.   The ecology
 workshop  rated both  conservation tillage practices  for possible  ecological
 effects  in  three  areas:   aquatic life,  terrestrial  life,  and  human  health.
 The  workshop  ratings  are given  below:

              Aquatic  (from   Aquatic (from
                decreased        increased
                sediment)     pesticide use)  Terrestrial     Human Health
Subtrend      1985     2010    1985    2010    1985    2010    1985     2010
No-tillage
Reduced
tillage
+2

+2
+3

+3
-1

-1
                                  (Index Ratincf]
                                       -10000

                                       -10000

*/
-  Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological  effects rating
   on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major.
No-till (2.1)
  th no-till farming, seeding is performed without tillage preparation and
  ie crop is not cultivated during the production period.

Extensiveness - In 1976, 7.5 million acres were under no-till  farming
compared to 3.3 million acres in 1972.  In 1977, nearly 8 million acres
(2.6 percent of cropland total) will be no-till farmed.  Although this
practice is expected to increase to 2010, current projected estimates
(55 percent no-till in 2010) seem high.  It seems likely that extensive-
ness may be only 10-20 percent by 2010.

Environmental Factors - Productivity values are variable, with both in-
creases and decreases found with no-till practices.  The type of crop cli-
mate, and soil type and condition will determine yields.  Not all crops
or soils are recommended for no-till farming.  Multicropping practices
will increase with no-till and increase production on a yearly per-acre
basis.

Fertilizer and herbicide use is expected to increase by 15 percent with no-
till farming and insecticide use will increase by about 11 percent.  Since
the fertilizer is not incorporated into the soil, more fertilizer will be
required to penetrate the soil and enter the root zone area.  Both weeds
and pests are increased with no-till.

With conservation tillage methods (no-till and reduced till)  an estimated
five million acres of fallow land or land with topographic limitations can
be brought into crop production.  Labor costs to the farm operator are re-
duced with no-till farming.  No-till will also increase the soil moisture
content  as much as 2 inches per year in some areas.
                                    15

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 Substantial  soil  loss  reductions  can  be  expected  with  no-till.   Reductions
 of  50-95  percent  are  common.   While these  large soil  loss  reductions  will
 tend  to reduce  nutrient  loss  to. surface  water, total  available  nutrients
 have  increased  greatly with this  practice.   Fertilizer use has  increased
 15  percent  and  the  fertilizer is  surface applied.   Crop residues left on
 soil  will also  increase  the nitrogen  content of soil  as they  weather.   It
 seems likely that nutrients in the surface  water  will  be reduced,  but the
 reductions  will be  of considerable less  magnitude than soil loss reductions.

The effects of no-till farming on pesticide  runoff  are not well documented.
Insecticide use and herbicide use have increased  11 and 15 percent, respect-
ively.  Pesticide loss to surface water will be greater for surface-applied
compounds that are not incorporated into the soil.  The greatest amount of
pesticide loss is usually associated  with surface  runoff, not  sediment.
Finally, one research experiment found increased  herbicide loss with a no-
till  plot compared to a conventional  tilled plot  after the first rain ef-
fect.  Even so, not enough research data exists to predict the effects of
no-till farming on pesticide loss.  However, it seems that the potential
does  exist for increased pesticide loss into surface water with no-till.

Nitrates in ground water will  show no significant  change to small increases.
Weathering of crop residues and increased fertilizer use make  more nitrate
available for leaching.  Increased soil moisture  content will  allow nitrate
to  percolate through the soil  easier and, thus, ground water nitrate concen-
tration could potentially increase.  Pesticide loss to ground  water will not
be  significantly  changed with no-till  practices.

Surface application of some pesticides will  result in increased volatiliza-
tion  of those pesticides.  The extent of volatilization will be determined
by  vapor pressure, molecular weight,  and other chemical properties of the
pesticide.

Ecological Effects - No-till practices will  have  both beneficial and adverse
ecological effects.   The large soil loss reductions will decrease turbidity
and increase species diversity in the aquatic environment.  However, the
potential  of increased pesticide residues in U.S.  waters will  have an adverse
aquatic effect.    By 1985, sediment reductions as  a result of no-till prac-
tices  will  have  a limited beneficial  aquatic effect and a moderate bene-
ficial effect by  2010.  Aquatic effects from potentially increased pesti-
cide  residues associated with  no-till will  have a minor  adverse  effect  in
 1985  and  in  2010.

Terrestrial  effects with no-till farming were also beneficial  and adverse.
Retention of top  soil, continued nutrient cycles,  and enhanced soil condi-
tion and structure will benefit the land.  Crop residues left through the
winter provide winter food and habitat for wildlife.  However, increased
pesticide use needed with no-till   will have direct and indirect adverse
effects on non-target organisms.  Terrestrial effects were given a zero
rating in 1985 and 2010, not because important ecological effects will not
be present with no-till, but because  the beneficial and adverse effects
will tend to cancel  each other.
                                      16

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Although no-till  could  increase pesticide levels in surface water, the
ecology panel felt the  levels would still be within the established human
safety limits.  Since ingestion of pesticide concentrations within these
limits by humans  is believed to have no harmful effects, there are ex-
pected to be no known significant human health effects in 1985 or 2010.

Research Needs - With no-till  practices, optimum fertilizer and pesticide
use practices should be established.   The relationship of no-till,  in-
creased pesticide use, and concentration of pesticide residues in surface
water run-off needs to be fully researched to help identify potential  eco-
logical effects.  Continued research is needed for the development  of  ef-
ficient, less-persistent pesticides and effective pesticide alternatives.
Support and public education will  be needed for the implementation  of  these
newer pesticides and pesticide alternatives.

Reduced Tillage (2.2)

A number of tillage methods are classified as reduced tillage.  These  in-
volve limited preparation of soil  for planting and use of chemical  com-
pounds for weed control.  The total field surface is still  worked but  with
tillage methods other than moldboard plowing.  Crop residues are usually
retained on the surface and/or mixed into the top soil.

Extensiveness - In 1972, 26.3 million acres were reduced-tilled compared
to an estimated 58.8 million acres in 1977.   An additional  40 million  acres
could be classified as less-tilled by 1977.   This would include cropland
which is chisel plowed, disced once instead of twice, and planted in  rough,
trashy ground.  By 2010, a significantly large increase is expected for
reduced tillage practices.  The practice will be major in extensiveness and
could include up  to 50  percent of all cropland.

Environmental Factors - With reduced tillage, crop yields are comparable and
often slightly higher than yields from conventional tillage.  Multicropping
practices increase with reduced tillage and would increase yields on  a
yearly per acre basis.

Since fertilizer nutrients must penetrate the soil and travel down  to  the
crop root zone, fertilizer use will increase with this practice.  However,
reduced tillage involves more soil preparations and the fertilizer  increase
should not be as great for this practice as for no-till (15% increase  in
fertilizer use).  Herbicide use will  also increase for weed problems  are
more serious with reduced tillage compared to conventional  tillage  (how-
ever weed problems are less with reduced tillage than for no-tillage).  In-
secticide use could increase as much as 8-9% for this practice.  Crop
residues left on the soil will increase the incidence of pests.

An additional 5 million acres of fallow land or land with topographical
limitations could be shifted to agriculture production with conservation
tillage methods (no-tillage and reduced tillage).  Reduced tillage will
lead to increased soil moisture content in some areas.  Farm operators
will have reduced energy and labor needs with this practice.
                                     17

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Soil loss will decrease with reduced tillage farming, but the effectiveness
will depend upon the amount of residues left on the surface, surface rough-
ness, and the amount and type of reduced tillage used.  Reduced tillage is
less effective than no-tillage in the control of soil loss.  (Note:  one
research experiment indicates that average soil loss reductions may only
be 14 percent when including all reduced tillage methods.)  Total nutrients
in surface water will probably be reduced, but reductions will not be pro-
portional to the reductions in soil  loss.

As with no tillage, the effect of reduced tillage on pesticide loss to sur-
face water is not well documented.  Pesticide usage increases, loss to sur-
face water is greater for surface-applied pesticides, and greater amounts
of pesticide residues are lost in runoff water than with sediment.  Poten-
tially the amount of pesticide entering surface water could increase with
reduced tillage.  However, this is not proven, and reduced tillage may, in
fact, little affect either the increasing or decreasing of pesticide losses
into surface water.

 Pesticide levels  in  ground  water  will  not  be significantly changed  with
 reduced tillage.   No change to  slight  increases  could occur  in nitrate
 leaching since  more  fertilizer  will  be applied,  crop  residues will  add  to
 soil  nitrate content,  and  increased  soil moisture  will  facilitate nitrate
 movement through  the soil.

 Some pesticides will  have  increased  volatilization losses  when surface
 applied.   The amount of volatilization will  depend upon  vapor pressure,
 molecular weight,  and  other chemical properties  of the  pesticides.  The
 increased loss  of  pesticides  to the  air with reduced  tillage  would prob-
 ably be small,  since other  tillage methods  may also  use  surface  applica-
 tion of pesticides.

 Ecological  Effects  - The ecological  effects  of reduced  tillage are  the
 same as those for  no-tillage, both beneficial  and  adverse.   Reduced tillage
 is  less effective  than  no-till  in controlling  soil  loss,  but will  be  used
 more extensively  in  1985 and  2010.   Aquatic  effects  are  divided  into  two
 categories--those  from  reduced  sediment and  those  from   pesticide residues
 in  water.   Limited  beneficial aquatic  effects  result  from decreased sedi-
ment, decreased turbidity,  and  increased species diversity in 1985.   In
 2010, these  effects  will be moderate.   The  possibility  of increased pesti-
 cide residues in  surface water  will  cause minor  adverse  aquatic  effects  in
 1985 and  2010.  Terrestrial effects  are also beneficial  and  adverse.   Land
will  profit  from  the retention  of top  soil  and nutrient  cycles.   Crop  resi-
 dues  through  the winter will  provide winter  food supplies  and habitat  for
 the  wildlife.   But  increased  pesticide usage will  have  direct and indirect
 adverse effects on  non-target organisms.   Overall  terrestrial ratings  are
zero  for  1985 and  2010,  because the  beneficial and adverse effects  tend  to
balance each  other out.

The  ecology  panel  felt  that if  pesticide  residues  in  surface water remained
the  same  or  increased  slightly  with  reduced  tillage,  the levels  would  still
                                    18

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 be within the established human safety limits, and that human health ef-
 rects would not be significant in 1985 and 2010.   If pesticide residues
 are round to increase more than indicated, then adverse human health ef-
 tects could result.

 ResearchNeeds_ - Optimum fertilizer and pesticide use with  different re-
 aucea tillage systems needs to be determined.   Further investigation is
 needed to determine  the effect of reduced tillage and increased  pesticide
 use on pesticide losses to surface water.   Additionally,  research  should
 continue on the development of efficient,  less-persistent pesticide  and
 effective pesticide  alternatives.

3.  Improved Hater Application (3)

The improved water application trend reflects a movement in  irrigated crop
production toward the conservation of water resources and the improvement
of irrigation efficiency with the use of existing irrigation systems, better
management practices, and professional irrigation scheduling.  Of primary
concern, is the effect of improved water application methods on the quality
of return flows and on soil salinity.  Five subtrends were evaluated as im-
proved water application practices.  Ecological ratings for  each  sub-
trend's  impact on aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health are shown
below.
Subtrend
3.1 Furrow basins
3.2 Land grading
3.3 Sprinklers
3.4 Recycling and controlling
    tail water
3.5 Irrigation scheduling and
    efficiency
  Aquatic
1985   2010
        Terrestrial
        1985   2010
      •(Index Ratings)'
                                                                Human Health
                1985
                2010
 -2
 -1
 -1

 +2

 +1
-3
-1
-2

+3

+1
 -2
-1
-1

-1

 0
-3
-1
-1

-1

+1
-1
 0
 0

+1

 0
-1
-1
 0

+1

 0
-/ Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
   on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major

A complete discussion of each subtrend follows.

Furrow Basins (3.1)

Small channels or furrows are constructed to carry irrigation waters down
or across the slope of fields with this practice.  Furrow irrigation does
not wet the entire surface but allows the water to seep through the sides
and bottom of the channel to provide the necessary moisture to the crop.
                                     19

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Extensiveness - In 1969, 50 percent (19.2 million acres)  of irrigated crop-
land used furrow type irrigation, but the extent of use in 1976 is not known,
The flat regions of the West use furrow irrigation more than other areas.

Environmental Factors - Yields from irrigated croplands were 11 percent
higher in the East and 38 percent higher in the West than U.S.  average
yields in 1969.  However, it is estimated that salinity reduces crop pro-
duction on a fourth of all irrigated land in the Western United States and
that it presents a potential hazard to one-half of the irrigated acres in
the West.  Productivity from irrigated cropland may decrease if salinity
continues to build in these areas.

Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use with furrow basins are comparable
to other irrigation methods.  Furrow irrigation uses an average of 2.06
acre feet of water per acre compared to an average of 1.39 acre feet of
water per acre for sprinkler irrigation.   Efficiency of furrow  irrigation
is lower than that of sprinkler or subsurface irrigation  methods.   The
average efficiency for furrows is only about 35 percent.

With furrow basins, certain management practices must be  followed to
reduce sediment and associated pollutants (nutrients, pesticides, and
salts).  These practices are listed below.

      1.  The slope of the furrow in the direction of water movement
          should not exceed 2 percent.  With some soil  types and in
          climates with intense rainfall, the slope should even be  less
          than 2 percent.
      2.  Land grading is essential  with furrow basins.
      3.  Furrow basins should be used on soils with low  infiltration rates.
      4.  Furrows should not be used on steep or rough terrain.   (See #7)
      5.  Water should be applied at a slow rate.
      6.  Ideally, the amount of irrigation water applied should be
          measured.
      7.  Benched, contoured, or diagonal furrows can be  used on uneven
          terrain or with land that may be too steep for straight furrows.

These management practices will tend to reduce pollutant  losses with furrow
irrigation in many areas.  However,  with some lands, it is nearly impossible
to reduce sediment in furrow irrigation to the extent sediment  and associ-
ated suspended solids in return flow will meet water quality standards. In
general, sediment and other pollutant losses are greater for furrow irriga-
tion than for sprinkler or subsurface methods.   Scheduling irrigations,
lining of conveyance ditches and furrow drops,  and improved drainage facil-
ities could be used with furrow basins to increase efficiency and further
reduce pollutant losses.

Significant ground water pollution occurs with furrow irrigation use.  Ni-
trates and other salts become concentrated in ground water entering rivers.
It is doubtful if improved furrow irrigation management will significantly
reduce ground water pollutants without irrigation scheduling and improved
irrigation facilities (lining of conveyance ditches and furrow  drops, im-
proved drainage and catch facilities, etc.)

                                     20

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Salinity buildup tends to be greater for furrow irrigation.  Not only is
the water  less efficiently  used, but also, salts tend to concentrate in
the surface,  in the center  of beds, and at the highest points in the fields
with furrows.

Ecological  Effects    Furrow irrigation will have limited adverse aquatic
effects in  1985 and moderate adverse aquatic effects in 2010.  These ef-
fects are  the result  of sediment, nutrients, pesticide residues, and salts
which will  enter U.S. waters through surface and ground water from furrow-
irrigated  land.  In evaluating the aquatic effects of furrow basins, it
was assumed that return flows would not be adequately controlled and that
surface and ground water from irrigated land will enter U.S. rivers.  With
adequate control of return  flow, these adverse effects could be signifi-
cantly reduced.

The land will suffer  with furrow irrigation use if soil salinity continues
to be a problem.  In  1985,  furrow irrigation will have limited adverse
terrestrial  effects and in  2010, moderate adverse effects.

Concentrations of salts in  U.S. rivers where irrigation is practiced have
increased  over the past two decades and will continue to increase in the
future.  Drinking water quality has been and will be further degraded.
Nitrate concentrations in water will continue to increase and could present
potential  future human health dangers.  For these reasons, furrow irrigation
will have  minor adverse human health effects in 1985 and 2010.

Research Needs - Continued  research is needed in irrigation methods, irri-
gation facilities, and control of return flows to determine how these can
be used to  help achieve water quality standards and reduce soil  salinity.
The feasibility of water renovation programs and cost incentives needs to
be more fully investigated  if water quality standards cannot be met by
irrigation  best management  practices.  With the increase of saline waters
in the West,  the effects of salinity on human and animal health should be
fully researched.  A  productive and economic use for return flows is needed.

Land Grading  (3.2) I/

Land grading  is the leveling of the land's surface for better movement of
water over  the land or for  soil erosion control.  In this discussion, land
grading will  be evaluated only as an irrigation practice for improved water
application.

Extensiveness   Land  grading is used most often in irrigated crop production
in conjunction with basin,  border, or furrow irrigation methods.  Actual
extensiveness of use  in 1976 is not known, but land grading was assessed
by the irrigated crop production panel (Evaluation Workshop, Volume I), as
having important use  in 1976 and increasing to major use by 1985 and 2010.
—•  Land grading was not originally defined by the Contractor and was added
   to runoff and erosion control subtrends by the irrigated crop production
   subsector.  However, a more appropriate place for analysis seemed to be
   with other subtrends specifically designated as important to irrigated
   crop production, i.e., within the improved water application trend.
                                     21

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Environmental Factors - Productivity can increase with land grading in
irrigated crop production as water will  flow through the irrigation chan-
nels more uniformly.   Land grading will  help prevent water logging and high
spot salinity areas in a field.   Increased yields can be signifcant if the
irrigated terrain was previously very rough and uneven.

Irrigation water needs can be reduced up to 40 percent on some rough ter-
rain.  With terrain that is already flat, water needs may not be signifi-
cantly reduced.   Decreased water use will also slightly reduce soluble
fertilizer requirements.  Herbicide and  insecticide use patterns will  not
change with land grading.

Elimination of excessive water applications through the use of land grading
will reduce soil, pesticide, and nutrient losses to surface water.  However,
these reductions will not reduce these pollutants to a level that return
flows will meet water quality standards.
Slight reductions are expected for nitrates,
ground water with the use of land grading to
cation.  With terrain that is already nearly
water will not be significantly reduced.
salts and pesticide levels in
reduce excessive water appli-
flat, pollutants in ground
Land grading will reduce high spot soil salinity areas in irrigated cropland.
Overall soil salinity will decrease very little unless water requirements
are significantly reduced.

Ecological Effects - Land grading was evaluated by the ecology workshop as
a practice that would be used with furrow irrigation.   The practice will be
beneficial to irrigated agriculture by reducing the adverse effects of fur-
row irrigation.  Salt will still enter the river systems and salt concentra-
tions in these rivers will increase with time.   For this reason, land grading
will have a minor adverse aquatic effect in 1985 and 2010.  Salinity in soil
will still occur with land grading, but won't be as great for this practice
as with furrow irrigation alone.  Thus, minor adverse terrestrial effects
will result in 1985 and 2010.  Potential nitrate levels will also increase
in rivers receiving irrigation return flows via surface and ground water.
This potential for increasing nitrate levels will  have a minor adverse
human health effect in 2010.

Research Needs - Research needs for land grading are the same as those for
furrow irrigation -- continued research on efficiency, management, and for
alternative irrigation methods to meet water quality standards and to con-
trol soil salinity.

Sprinklers (3.3)

With sprinkler systems, irrigation water is uniformily distributed to the
crop as spray.

Extensiveness - In 1969, 7.2 million acres (18.8 percent of all irrigated
cropland) used sprinkler irrigation.  Extensiveness of use of sprinkler
irrigation in 1976 is not known, but it is expected to have increased

                                      22

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since 1969.  Although further increases in use are expected for sprinkler
systems in the future, depletion of ground water supplies will tend to
limit their use  in some areas, especially in semi-arid regions of the West.
Increased use for optimizing crop quality, as well as quantity, can be ex-
pected in the East and upper Mid-West.

Environmental  Factors - In 1969, yields from irrigated cropland in the West
were 32 percent  greater than the U.S.  average.   In the East, yields were  11
percent higher than U.S. averages for irrigated cropland.   While these fig-
ures include irrigated crop yields from all  methods of irrigation, produc-
tivity from a single method, such as sprinkler, will  show comparable results.
Currently crop production is reduced on one-fourth of the irrigated acres
in the Western U.S. due to soil  salinity.   Overall  productivity from land
that is kept as  irrigated cropland will continue to be high, but some land
will be taken out of production as salinity increases above the crops tol-
erance.

Additionally,  sprinkler irrigation in  some Western areas  may have  only
highly saline waters available for irrigation use.   This  can leave toxic,
often lethal  deposits on crop foliage.  Nor are all crops suitable to
sprinkler irrigation methods.  Certain crops are very susceptible  to fungi
and have increased incidence of fungi  infections from the high moisture
conditions of sprinkler irrigation.

Fertilizer, pesticide, and insecticide use with sprinkler irrigations are
comparable to their use in other irrigation methods.   Sprinkler irrigation
requires an average of 1.39 acre feet  of water  per acre,  considerably less
than furrow irrigation water requirements  (an average of  2.06 acre feet of
water per acre).   Efficiency of sprinkler  irrigation averages 50-60 percent.

Soil, nutrients, and pesticide losses  to surface water are, generally,
less with sprinkler irrigation methods than with furrow methods.   Applica-
tion rates and the amount of water applied can  be more closely monitored
with sprinkler systems.   These will  tend to reduce excessive water applica-
tions, and, thus, reduce runoff and erosion.   Little data is available on
the quantification of pollutants entering  surface water from sprinkler
irrigated land.   With some management  practices and soil  types, pollutants
could probably be significant.

Ground water pollution also tends to be less for sprinkler irrigation than
for furrow irrigation.  However, use of sprinkler irrigation cannot be relied
upon to significantly reduce nitrates, pesticides and salt levels  in ground
water.  Improvement of pollutant levels in ground water with sprinkler irri-
gation can result with irrigation scheduling and improve  irrigation facili-
ties.

Soil salinity is less for sprinkler irrigation  than with  other surface irri-
gation methods;   however, salinity continues to be a problem in many areas,
regardless of the type of irrigation method used.
                                      23

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Ecological Effects - Sediment, nutrient, and pesticide losses to surface
water will be less with sprinkler irrigation compared to other surface irri-
gation methods.   This will have a beneficial effect on aquatic life.   How-
ever, sprinkler irrigation use has seriously depleted ground water supplies
in some areas and will continue to reduce these supplies in 1985 and 2010.
For this reason, sprinkler irrigation was evaluated as having minor adverse
effects in 1985 and limited adverse aquatic effects in 2010.

Minor adverse terrestrial  effects in 1985 and 2010 will  be found with
sprinkler use.  Soil salinity will continue to be a problem and wildlife
habitat will be destroyed as fence rows are removed to facilitate sprinkler
irrigation.

The potential for increased nitrates in surface water is reduced with
sprinkler irrigation; thus human health impacts in 1985  and 2010 will
not be significant with this practice.

Research Needs - The depletion of ground water supplies  should be carefully
monitored to determine the seriousness  of the problem and to evaluate irri-
gated agriculture's role in preventing  further depletions.  The feasibility
of using municipal waste effluents in sprinkler systems  for agriculture
irrigation should be thoroughly investigated.  Additionally, continued re-
search is needed to evaluate irrigation methods and the  management of and/or
the adding of the irrigation facilities necessary to reduce soil salinity
and for return flows to meet water quality standards.

Recycling and Controlling Tailwater (3.4)

Only part of the total return flow, tailwater is the excess surface water
remaining after irrigation (the rest of the return flow  is sub-surface
drainage water).  Under this practice,  tailwater is not  allowed to run
into rivers and streams but is either diverted to an off-site or is collected
in a reservoir or tail ditch for irrigation reuse.  Although control  of sub-
surface drainage waters is not actually included in the  practice of re-
cycling and controlling tailwater, it is included in parts of this dis-
cussion to show how these waters can also affect environmental quality.

Extensiveness - The extensiveness of recycling and controlling tailwater in
1976 is not known.  However, as stricter controls are imposed on agriculture
point and nonpoint sources of pollution, this practice is expected to in-
crease to help meet water quality standards.  Use was estimated to be
limited in 1976, moderate in 1985, and  important in 2010 (the evaluation
workshop, Volume I).

Environmental Factors - Productivity will not increase or decrease signifi-
cantly with proper management of recycled tailwater.  Application of tail-
water back on irrigated crops without proper dilution or settling could re-
sult in slight decreases in crop yields.  With proper management, yields
with recycled tailwater will be comparable to yields with water from other
irrigation sources.  While water that is collected from subsurface drain-
age systems will require more treatment than tailwater before reuse due to
                                     24

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nigh salt  concentrations,  limited  research data suggests that subsurface
return flows  are  not  being  recycled for  irrigation use, but are diverted
to other areas  for  disposal.  Application of such water, however, without
treatment  could cause significantly large reductions in crop yields in
some areas.

Fertilizer, herbicide,  and  insecticide use will not significantly change
with the recycling  and  control  of  tailwater.  Water use will be reduced
with this  practice, as  much  as  30  percent with some methods of surface
irrigation.   If water use  has already been reduced through monitoring
the amount of water applied  and/or through irrigation scheduling, then
water  use  may be  reduced very little with this practice.  While installa-
tion of tailwater reuse systems will present an initial cost to the farm
operator,  reuse of  runoff water can reduce the ultimate cost of water.
Installation  of tile  drains  and collection systems for control of sub-
surface water will  be a more costly operation and will probably not be
widely used.

Control of tailwater  can significantly reduce the amount of sediment,  pesti-
cides, and nutrients  entering surface water.   The pollutants will  be con-
fined  to the  field where they originated.  Control  of tailwater will  have
little or  no  effect  on salt concentrations in surface water.   However,
control of subsurface drainage waters would reduce the amount of salt  that
would  enter rivers and  streams from groundwater.   Soil  salinity will  not be
significantly affected  with  the control  and reuse of tailwater.   Subsurface
drainage systems  can  be used to control  salinity buildup at or near the
ground surface.

Ecological  Effects  -  Recycling and controlling tailwater will  be beneficial
to aquatic life.  Reduced sediment, nutrients, and pesticides in water cur-
rently receiving  surface drainage  from irrigated cropland will  decrease  tur-
bidity and increase species  diversity in these waters.   Less water will  be
required for  irrigations when tailwater is recycled.   In 1985,  this practice
will have  limited beneficial effects on aquatic life and by 2010,  with more
extensive  use of  this practice, effects will  be moderately beneficial.  Con-
trol of all return flow, surface and subsurface, would further benefit
aquatic life with reduction  of salt concentrations entering U.S.  waters.
However only control  of tailwater  is included in this assessment,  and, addi-
tionally,  control  of  all return flow does not currently seem to be a likely
development.

Soil salinity will not  be controlled with recycling of tailwater.   If tail-
water  is not reused,  but diverted  to some other receiving area, the poten-
tial exists for increased environmental  impacts in that area.   For these
reasons, control  of tailwater will  have minor adverse terrestrial  effects
in 1985 and 2010.

Nitrate levels will  be  significantly reduced in water supplies with the
control of tailwater  resulting in minor beneficial  human health effects  in
1985 and 2010.
                                     25

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Research Needs - Continued research is needed on the quality of return
flows, their effects on water quality and on economically feasible ways
to control return flows.  Disposal of tailwater and subsurface drainage
waters that are not recycled for irrigation use should be investigated.
More public education is needed to inform farm operators that control of
tailwater would be beneficial to them as well as to the environment.

Irrigation Scheduling and Efficiency (3.5)

Irrigation scheduling is used to improve efficiency by applying optimum
amounts of irrigation water to a particular crop at times when that crop
can use the water most effectively.  Generally, less water will be applied
and less water will end up as return flow with scheduling.

Extensiveness - In 1974, professional irrigation scheduling was used on
382,000 acres of irrigated cropland (approximately 1 percent).  Addi-
tionally, some farm operators probably used non-professional methods to
provide some type of scheduling to their crops.  However, these methods
are often not as scientific or accurate as professional scheduling.  Ex-
tensiveness of use was estimated at moderate levels in 1976 by the first
evaluation workshop and was expected to increase to major levels by 2010.

Environmental Factors - Increased crop yields and improved crop quality
can be expected with irrigation scheduling.

Fertilizer use could be reduced slightly with irrigation scheduling and
other irrigation efficiency practices.  Herbicide and insecticide use
patterns would not be changed with improved water efficiency.  Water use
will decrease an average of 10 percent with scheduling.  Lining of irri-
gation conveyance ditches can further increase efficiency and reduce water
requirements by 20 percent in many areas.

Sediment, nutrient, and pesticide losses to surface water will be reduced
with irrigation scheduling.  Salt concentrations in surface runoff are
comparable to those of the original irrigation water and will not be signi-
ficantly affected with scheduling.

Salt concentrations in ground water can be significantly reduced with the
elimination of irrigation conveyance losses.  With irrigation systems that
allow uniform, monitored water applications, scheduling can reduce salt
loads in return flows, but this reduction is not expected to significantly
influence salinity in return flows except where salt buildup is a major
factor.   Other irrigation systems may not show a decrease in salinity in
the return flow with scheduling.

Soil salinity decreases with scheduling, particularly since water use for
salt leaching is usually included as part of the practice.  Also, with more
frequent monitored water application, salt concentrations are not as likely
to build up to dangerous levels in the soil.
                                    26

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 Ecological  Effects - In 1985 and in 2010,  irrigation  scheduling  and  ef-
 ficiency practices will result in minor beneficial  aquatic  effects from
 decreased water use.  Small  decreases  in water salinity  will  also occur
 in  some areas.   Terrestrial  and human  health  effects  will not be signifi-
 cant in 1985.   However, in 2010, terrestrial  effects  will be  of  minor
 benefit since  soil salinity will show  small  reductions.

 Research Needs  - Continued research is needed on  irrigation scheduling
 and other efficiency practices to help control  quality of return flows
 and soil salinity.  Additionally, more public education  is  needed for the
 farm operator  to recognize the economic and  environmental benefits of im-
 proving irrigation efficiency through  professional  scheduling, improved
 irrigation facilities, and improved irrigation management.

 4.   Improvement of Seeds and Plants (4)

 Improvement of  seeds and plants covers a broad area of genetic research  in
 plants.  Improved weather resistance,  salt resistance, improved  production
 efficiency, and disease, insect, and nematode resistance are  four important
 areas which are analyzed as subtrends  within  this trend.  While  research on
 these subtrends has been continuing for several years, commercial applica-
 tions are still in their infancy and are classified here as developments
 rather than current practices.  Their  assessment  is based on  the assumption
 that gradual genetic improvements in resistance and production efficiency
 will occur by  1985 with further improvements  by 2010.

 Ecological  ratings used in indicating  the  intensity of ecological effects
 in  three areas, aquatic, terrestrial,  and  human health are  shown below.
Subtrend
4.1 "Weather resistance
4.2 Salt resistance
4.3 Production efficiency
4.4 Disease, insect, and
     nematode resistance
  Aquatic
1985   2010
        Terrestrial
        1985   2010
      •(Index Rating)*
                                                                 Human Health
               1985
                2010
  0
  0
  0

 +2
 0
-1
-1

+4
 0
 0
 0

+1
 0
-1
 0

+3
 0
 0
 0

+1
 0
 0
 0

+2
—/ Index Rating = Beneficial  (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects ratings
   on a scale of 1 to  5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major

 Weather Resistance  (4.1)

 Weather resistance  is genetically bred into crop  varieties  so  they will
 have higher tolerance to  heat,  cold,  drought,  and wind.   With  such de-
 velopments, agriculture can be  expanded in areas  that have  less  favorable
 growing seasons.
                                      27

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Extensiveness - Improvements in weather resistance have occurred in some
field crops.  Soybeans with a shorter growing season are being grown in
some northern areas of the U.S.  Drought tolerant strains of corn and
wheat have shown sustained yields in dry years.  Gradual improvements will
continue to be made with weather resistance in crop varieties, but no
major developments are expected in this area in the near future, i.e.,
weather resistant crop strains that will allow significant year-round
cropping.

Environmental Factors - Productivity will increase with weather resistant
crops.  In years of drought or prolonged cold springs, yields may be main-
tained with these crops.  Crop production could be expanded into areas with
more stressful climates, too.  Multicropping practices will increase in
some areas; however, it is doubtful if year-round cropping will occur
throughout most of the U.S.  Rather, crops will be developed for normal
growing seasons that will be more tolerant of weather stress.

Fertilizer, herbicide, and insecticide use will not change with weather re-
sistant crops in the near future.  If major developments in weather re-
sistance made year-round cropping feasible, significantly large increases
in fertilizer use and smaller increases in pesticide use would be expected.

Weather resistance crops will not result in any significant pollutant changes
in the media, unless multicropping practices and year-round cropping prac-
tices increase.  Pollutants in the media would also increase with these
practices, but extensiveness of these practices (from weather resistant
crops) is expected to be very minor in 2010.

Ecological Effects - There will be no significant ecological effects with
weather resistant crop varieties in 1985 or 2010.  Multicropping practices
and crop production on marginal land is not expected to significantly in-
crease with this subtrend; thus, media pollutants will not change signi-
ficantly either.

Research Needs - Continued research is needed for the improvement of
weather resistant crop varieties.  The environmental implications of in-
creased multicropping practices with this subtrend should be included in
the research.

Salt Resistance (4.2)

With advances in plant genetics, certain crops are being bred to withstand
high salt concentrations.  These crops could be grown in areas of the U.S.
where soil and available irrigation water have become so saline that crop
production is impaired or is no longer economically feasible with existing
varieties.

Extensiveness - Limited field trials with salt resistant crop strains are
encouraging, but commercial use of these crops is several years away.  Re-
search with salt resistance continues, with expected use in irrigated crop
production before 2010.
                                     28

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Environmental Factors - Productivity in irrigated agriculture will increase
with the use of salt resistant crop strains.  Irrigated cropland that has
become too saline for crop production and allowed to lie fallow, could be
brought back into production.  Additionally, some salt marsh lands could be
used for agriculture.

Fertilizer, insecticide and herbicide use would not be changed with the
use of salt resistant crops on existing farm land.  Significant pollu-
tant changes in the media are expected only with new or fallow lands.

Ecological Effects - In 1985, no significant ecological effects will  result
from salt resistant crops.  By 2010, commercial use of these crops seems
likely, and minor adverse aquatic and terrestrial effects will occur.
The use of salt resistant crops will permit cropping on brackish coastline
soils, on salt marsh areas, and on fallow saline land.  Disruption of the
coastline and loss of wildlife habitat on fallow saline land will  occur.
If significant cropping of brackish coast line soils occurs, the anticipated
increase of pesticides and associated runoff into adjacent estuary areas is
a probability.  Such could have serious consequences in the nursery grounds
for shrimp, crab, and many species of commercial and game fish.  The  un-
fortunate location of these soils will also result in air borne drift re-
sulting from pesticide application measures.

Production Efficiency (4.3)

Production efficiency in crops result from improved biochemical and genetic
control of plant processes.  Optimally a plant would be able to utilize nu-
trients, sunlight, and water more efficiently, and have desirable root de-
velopment, high yields, and higher quality yields.

Extensiveness - Substantial improvements in agriculture crop production
have been made in the past two decades.  The improvements largely resulted
from a combination of new varieties, high rates of fertilization, high plant
populations, disease resistance plants, and control of insects and weeds.
While research results will continue to make small improvements in crop pro-
duction, comparable advances are not likely to be obtained in the future
until plant photosynthetic processes can be controlled.  This does not
seem a likely development by 1985 and is questionable by 2010.

Environmental Factors - Use of crops with improved production efficiency
would significantly increase yields and improve quality of yields.  However
increased productivity from this development will depend upon when and if
plant photosynthetic processes can be controlled.

Herbicide and insecticide use would not significantly change with this de-
velopment.  Fertilizer requirements would increase with large changes  in
production efficiency, especially if the protein content of a crop is  ex-
pected to be maintained or increased.
                                     29

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Increased fertilizer use could result in small  increases in nutrient losses
to surface and ground water.   While the crop would tend to use nutrients
more efficiently during growth, the potential for increased nutrient loss
exists immediately after application.  No other pollutants changes in the
media are expected.

Ecological Effects - In 1985, no significant ecological effects will occur.
By 2010increased fertilizer use could have a minor adverse aquatic effect
if major developments have occurred in plant production efficiency.  Terres-
trial and human health effects will not be significantly changed in 2010.

Research Needs - Continued research is needed for the development of produc-
tion efficiency in plants.  On-going research projects should be monitored.

Disease,  Insect, and Nematode Resistent Crops (4.4)

 Research  in  plant  genetics has  also  produced field  crops  with  a  high  toler-
 ance to disease,  insects, and nematodes.   Tough  stems  and stalks,  plants
 with an unappealing  taste to  insects,  and  hairy  leaves  are all genetic  de-
 velopments  in crops  that  reduce losses to  disease and  insects.

 Extensiveness -  Nearly 75 percent  of agriculture crops  have some resistance
 to at  least  one  type  of disease, insect, or  nematode.   The inbred  resistance
 is often  in  the  form  of higher  tolerance of  a hardier  strain,  but  a crop  is
 rarely ever  entirely  resistant  to  all  diseases or insects.   Research  con-
 tinues to  develop  more resistant crop  varieties  to  replace those less re-
 sistant varieties  currently  used.  By  2010,  more crop  varieties  should  be
 available  for commercial  use.

 Environmental  Factors  - Resistant  crop varieties and improved  resistant
 varieties will continue to increase  productivity in the future.   Production
 losses  from  certain  diseases,  insects, and nematodes can  be substantially
 reduced with resistant crops.

 Fertilizer and herbicide  use  will  not  change with resistant crops.   Insecti-
 cide use will  decrease, as highly  insect resistant  crops  become  available
 for  commercial use.   Since crop resistance is generally insufficient  to
 completely control  insects, supplemental chemical insecticide  treatments  are
normally  required.  However,  fewer treatments are needed.   There are  a  few
crop varieties that are entirely resistant to insects  and have no  insecti-
cide requirements.

Insecticide  residues  in the media  will  be  reduced as more resistant crop
varieties are  developed and adopted  for use.  By 2010,  reductions  in  resi-
dues could be  quite substantial.

In many areas, soil and nutrient losses will not be significantly  affected by
resistant crops.   In  areas so  affected with  disease, insects,  or nematodes
that crop yields are  greatly  reduced,  resistant  crop varieties will  provide
for  better ground  cover and for more  efficient use  of  fertilizer.   This
will cause some reductions in  soil and nutrient  loss in those  areas.
                                      30

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Ecological Effect - Beneficial ecological effects with this development will
stem, primarily, from decreased insecticide use.  There will be lower levels
of insecticide residues in surface water and in aquatic life.  Decreased
insecticide use would benefit non-target wildlife species which are often
exposed to high concentrations during application.  With decreased use,
there is less chance of direct exposure of toxic insecticides to humans.
In 1985, limited beneficial aquatic effects and minor terrestrial  and human
health effects will result with resistant crops.  All effects will increase
in intensity by 2010,  when crops are expected to be even more resistant to
disease, insects, and nematodes and insecticide use will further decrease.
Aquatic effects will be important, terrestrial  effects moderate and human
health effects limited by 2010.

Research Needs - Continued research is needed in the development of crop
varieties more resistant to disease, insects, and nematodes.  On-going
research should be monitored.

5.  Scouting and Integrated Control (5)

Two basic practices, subtrends, were analyzed within the trend:  scouting
and integrated control.  Scouting includes both surface scouting and remote
sensing.  Integrated controls  involve the use of biological and/or mechan-
ical treatment in conjunction with chemicals.  In 1976, neither of these
practices were being extensively used, primarily because the diagnostic and
predictive techniques thus far developed and used in scouting have not been
reliable.  In many  cases, damage has occurred by the time pest problems
have been identified.  Also, although integrated control is not a new con-
cept, many of the biological controls required to make the system effective
are still in the developmental stage.  While these practices are not in
widespread use currently, they will likely become significant factors in
crop production  in  the future.

The .ecology panel rated the effects of the scouting and integrated control
trend as beneficial generally.  Their ecological effects ratings for
aquatic  life, terrestrial life and human health are as follows:

                                    Aquatic     Terrestrial    Human Health
Subtrend                         1985   2010    1985   2010    1985    2010
                                 	___  (index Rating)* 	
5.1 and  5.2  Scouting-
    surface  and  remote
    sensing                       +1     +3      +1     +3       0      +1
5.3 Integrated control            +1     +4      +1     +4       0      +2

-/  Index Rating  =  Beneficial  (+) or adverse  (-) ecological effects rating
    on  a  scale of 1  to 5, where  1 = minor and 5 = major
                                    31

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Scouting - Surface and Remote Sensing (5.1 and 5.2)

With surface scouting, pests, diseases and potential crop damage are deter-
mined by visual inspection; remote sensing scouting, however, primarily
involves the determination of insect populations, diseases and/or crop
damage through satellite systems.

Extensiveness - The use of scouting was estimated as minor in extensiveness
in 1976, but by 1985 it is expected to become more widely used, particularly
in the nonirrigated areas.  By 2010, it will be widely used and represent a
major factor in crop production.

Environmental Factors - Scouting is not expected to have any significant
impact on fertilizer or herbicide use since nutrient requirements will be
unaffected and effective weed control will continue to require herbicide
applications.  Significant reduction in insecticide use can be expected
when scouting becomes widespread; consequently, appreciable reductions of
pesticide residues in the soil and water are projected by 2010.

Ecological Effects - Scouting is expected to have beneficial effects on
the ecological systems because of the reduced pesticide use.  Although
these effects are expected to be minor in 1985, moderate effects are antic-
ipated by 2010 involving the aquatic and terrestrial systems.  With the
reduction of insecticide use, less re-entry problems are likely to occur,
reducing the health hazards.  However, the overall effect on human health
is considered to be relatively minor in 2010.

Research Needs - Specific research needs have not been identified although
the timeliness and reliability of scouting needs further development.  The
expanded use of scouting will depend more on education than it will in im-
provements in specific techniques.

Integrated Controls (5.3)

With integrated controls, chemical, biological, and mechanical treatment
methods are combined to achieve control of pests and diseases in crop pro-
duction.  Successful integrated controls depend on natural pest population
control, along with a combination of techniques that contribute to the
suppression of pest-specific diseases such as resistant crop varieties,
sterile insect, attractants, use of predators, or chemical pesticides as
needed.

Extensiveness - Some of these methods are in their infancy and are not
yet widely accepted or feasible.  Consequently, the overall use of inte-
grated controls in 1976 was limited.  However, by 1985, use of this system
will increase to a moderate level and by 2010, integrated controls should
be in major use.


Environmental Factors - Significant reduction can be expected in insecti-
cide use with the adoption of integrated controls.  Consequently, reduced
                                     32

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pesticide residues can be expected in the soil and water, particularly in
2010, when these systems become widely used.

Ecological Effects - Integrated controls for the most part limit pesticide
use to target organisms; consequently, both the aquatic and terrestrial
system would be enhanced with the resultant pesticide reduction.  However,
this enhancement should not become fully apparent until 2010 when the
systems come into wide use.  Thus, use of integrated controls will have
only minor aquatic and terrestrial effects in 1985, but important effects
on these two systems by 2010.  Human health effects will be limited in
2010.

Research Needs - Research  in this area should be supported with education
in the benefits of these controls.

6.  Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides (6)

A total of seven developments or  subtrends involving new biological and
chemical pesticides were analyzed in the initial environmental assessment.
These include:

         6.1  Micro-encapulated pesticides
         6.2  Systemic pesticides
         6.3  Surfactants  for herbicides
         6.4  Bio-degradable pesticides
         6.5  Alternative  formulations
         6.6  Juvenile hormones
         6.7  Pheromones
         6.8  Sterile males
         6.9  Predators and  parasites

Although much is  known about systemic pesticides, surfactants, biodegrad-
able  pesticides,  alternative formulations,  predators,  parasites,  and sterile
males, the  use  of developments  in these  areas are still  in the  "field-scale
trials"  or  "limited  use" stages and  the  probability or  extent of  adoption
and  the  measure  of the environmental  impacts  of the individual developments
cannot yet  be adequately gauged.  Consequently, the ecology workshop com-
bined the developments  in  their evaluation  into two categories:   chemical
and  biological.   For  this  reason, the subsequent  discussion covers the
trend in  those  two categories.  Also since  the developments are largely
experimental, the  extensiveness is excluded  from  the discussion.   The
ratings  assigned  by  the ecology workshop are  as follows:
                                      33

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                                  Aquatic     Terrestrial    Human Health
Subtrend                       1985   2010    1985   2010    1985    2010
                               	.	(Index Rating)*	

Development of new chemical
pesticides                      +1     +3      +1     +2      +1      +2

Development of new bio-
logical pesticides              +1     +3      +1     +3      +1      +3
-  Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
   on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major


Development of New Chemical Pesticides (6.1 - 6.5)

These developments include those of micro-encapulated pesticides, systemic
pesticides, surfactants, bio-degradable pesticides, and alternative formu-
lations.

Environmental Factors - The overall amounts of pesticides required are ex-
pected to be decreased from those that would be required with existing types
of pesticides.  Most of the reductions would result from increased efficien-
cies.  The greatest potential reduction would be associated with surfactants
with possible decreases in herbicide use by as much as 50 percent.  Because
of expected reductions in requirements, less runoff into surface waters is
anticipated.  There would not only be less runoff, but also less toxicity
if developments in biodegradable pesticide come into widespread use.  A de-
crease in pesticide residues in the soil (relative to existing pesticides)
can be expected with these developments, particularly those of herbicides.
However, the full impacts of residues caused by systemic pesticides are not
known at this time, especially with nontarget organisms.

Ecological Effects - Beneficial ecological  effects can generally be expected
with the greatest benefits expected from developments in biodegradable pest-
icides.   Since these pesticides would ideally be selective and less toxic
to animals and humans, minor benefits can be anticipated in all ecosystems
by 1985.  Species diversity would be increased in both the terrestrial and
aquatic systems and health hazards would be reduced.  By 2010, use of new
chemical pesticides is expected to have moderate benefit and aquatic effects
and limited beneficial effects on terrestrial life and human health.  Although
favorable effects can be expected, for the most part, potential problems may
exist with the developments in systemic and micro-encapsulated pesticides where
persistence may increase.

Research Needs - Research is needed on the environmental effects of chem-
ical  pesticides as they are developed including studies of systemic resi-
dues and the nature of degradation products.  Research is also needed on
bio-magnification in the food chain and effects of pesticides in the de-
composing food chain.
                                      34

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Developments of New Biological Pesticide (6.6 - 6.9)

These developments include the use of juvenile hormones, pheromones,
sterile males, predators, and parasites.

Environmental Factors - Biological pesticides are normally insect specific;
consequently, the level of total insecticide use is not expected to de-
crease significantly as a result of adoption of new biological pesticides.
The use of juvenile hormones and pheromones can be expected to leave resi-
dues in the water and soil; however, their quantities are too insignificant
to be harmful to animals or humans.

Ecological Effects - On a national scale, the benefits of new biological
pesticides will be relatively minor with no significant breakthroughs re-
ceiving widespread technological applications expected by 1985.   By 2010,
substantial advancement in these developments can be expected and the eco-
logical effects should be moderate in intensity.  Developments are expected
to have regional implications where enhancement of regional ecological
systems may become significant.

Research Needs - Research is needed in the predator and parasite area to
determine the potential consequences of these agents after the target in-
sects have been controlled or eradicated, but present USDA use controls
are stringent enough to lessen the theoretical dangers.  Research is more
importantly needed to further develop and optimize the use of pheromones,
juvenile hormones, and host specific bacterial and viral pest diseases.

7.  Methods of Nutrient Application (7)

Seven subtrends involving methods of applying nutrients were analyzed.
These subtrends, listed below, involve the form in which fertilizer is
applied, the timing and frequency of application, and the type of appli-
cators used.  Although there is a considerable amount of discussion of
these technologies in the literature, very little can be found on their
environmental implications.  Consequently, environmental factor assess-
ments were based on a limited number of research findings.  The evalua-
tions of the ecology workshop are shown below.  According to the work-
shop, the use of foliar applications, liquid fertilizers, and improved
placement of fertilizer will have very little change in ecosystem ef-
fects.  Fall applications were considered to have the most significant
effects, and these were expected to be adverse.
                                   35

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Subtrend
  1
    Foliar application
  2 Multiple applications
  3 Fall  applications
  4 Liquid fertilizer
  5 Aerial  and floater
     application
    Improved nutrient  place-
     ment
7.7 Irrigation application
7.6
                                    Aquatic
                                 1985    2010
 0
+1
-2
 0

 0

 0
-1
 0
+1
-3
 0

 0

 0
-1
              Terrestrial
              1985   2010
             (Index Rating)*
                                                               Human Health
                      1985
 0
 0
 0
 0

+1

 0
 0
 0
+1
 0
 0

+2

 0
 0
 0
 0
-1
 0
                                                                 0
                                                                 0
                      2010
 0
 0
-1
 0

 0

 0
 0
—' Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating on
   a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 = minor and 5 = major.
Foliar Application (7.1)

With foliar applications, fertilizer is sprayed on growing plants so that
nutrients may be taken up through the leaves of the plant.  Foliar applica-
tions are primarily used as an adjunct to conventional fertilization.

Extensiveness - This method is currently in an experimental stage with only
limited production trials.  In 1976, the utilization of this technique was
slight and it is expected to increase to minor levels only by 2010.

Environmental Factors - Since nutrient uptake by plants is expected to be
more efficient through foliar applications, the expected runoff of nutrients
should be less than comparable levels of surface applied fertilizer.  How-
ever, insufficient data exists to assess the environmental effects of actual
trials.  Potential drift problems can occur; however, this can be effectively
controlled through proper timing of application.
Ecological Effects - No significant change in ecological effects are ex-
pected from the slight increase in the use of foliar application.

Research Needs - Research on the technology and agronomic results of
foliar application should include an investigation of environmental im-
plications.

Multiple Applications (7.2)

Multiple applications of fertilizer refer to more than one time of appli-
cation in order to realize optimum growth and crop production.
                                      36

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Extensiveness -  In 1976, greater than 40 percent of the cropland received
more than one application of fertilizer.  This practice is expected to
increase significantly by 2010.

Environmental Factors - Multiple applications of fertilizer are generally
more agronomically efficient than single applications; consequently, overall
fertilizer requirements are expected to be slightly less under this practice
than with a single application.  In multiple applications, fewer nutrients
are available for runoff or leaching.  This coupled with the overall re-
duced fertilizer requirement (when compared to single application) is ex-
pected to reduce both nutrient runoff and leaching.  An adverse impact on
the environment can be expected from a slight increase in soil compaction
associated with multiple applications.

Ecological Effects - Multiple applications can be expected to have rela-
tively minor but beneficial effects on the aquatic and terrestrial eco-
systems.  The reduction in nutrients in the surface water will decrease
the potential for eutrophication.  Also, the potential for nitrogen leach-
ing will be reduced.  Human health will not be significantly affected with
this application practice.

Research Needs - Research is required to determine the differential in
nutrient runoff and leaching resulting from multiple and single applica-
tions.

Fall Application (7.3)

With fall application, fertilizer is applied during the fall  season prior
to the primary  growing season of the crops.

Extensiveness -  In 1976, 39 percent of all fertilizers were fall  applied.
This method of application occurred for the most part in nonirrigated areas.
Use will increase slightly by 2010.

Environmental Factors - Because of the fertilizer loss during the winter
prior to the growing season, this method of application is less efficient
than spring application.  Consequently, the increasing amount of fertili-
zer fall applied will tend to increase the overall fertilizer use.  Because
of the greater amounts of fertilizer applied and the potential of runoff
and leaching during the winter season, nutrient losses to surface and
ground water will be increased.

Ecological Effects - Fall  application is considered to have the most ad-
verse ecological  effects of any of the application techniques analyzed.
These occur both in the aquatic system (limited adverse effects in 1985
and moderate effects in 2010)  and on human health (minor adverse effects
in 1985 and 2010).   The increased nutrient runoff will result in increased
eutrophication while the increased leaching poses potential  problems in
nitrate contamination of ground water.  No significant effects are ex-
pected on the terrestrial  system.

Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the regional  environmental
impacts of fall  application.
                                    37

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Liquid Fertilizer (7.4)

Application of nutrients in liquid form is practiced partially as a means
of enhancing crop production and also as an efficient method of handling
fertilizer material.

Extensiveness - In 1975, 30 percent of all fertilizer applied was liquid.
This represents an average annual  increase of close to 3 percent over the
past seven years.  Use is expected to increase significantly by 2010 to
major levels.

Environmental Factors -  The productivity of liquid fertilizers is generally
slightly higher than equivalent solid forms.   To a slight extent the over-
all fertilizer requirement may be reduced when compared to the amount that
would be required with the use of solid fertilizer.  Since there is no sub-
stantial differences in  the pollution effect  of the two forms of fertilizer,
a slight reduction can be expected in the availability of nutrients for
runoff and leaching.

Ecological Effects - No  significant change in ecological effects is ex-
pected to result from the trend towards the increasing use of liquid fer-
tilizer.

Research Needs - On-going research involving  liquid fertilizers should
address the environmental implications.

Aerial and Floater Application (7.5)

This method refers to fertilizer application  by aircraft and by ground
vehicles (floaters) equipped with high floatation tires designed to reduce
soil compaction and to permit application during wet weather.

Extensiveness - In 1976, an estimated 50 percent of all cropland was
traversed at least once  with floater vehicles for fertilizer applica-
tion.  Less than five percent of cropland was estimated to have been
fertilized aerially.  The total cropland having fertilizer applied by
either means is expected to increase slightly by 2010.

Environmental Factors -  No significant changes are expected in the amounts
of nutrients delivered to surface and ground water as a result of the in-
crease in these means of application.  A slight decrease in soil compaction
can be expected with the use of floaters.  A small loss of fertilizers can
be expected because of the drift associated with aerial delivery; however,
overall this is not expected to be significant.

Ecological Effects - No  significant effects are expected on either the
aquatic system or human  health as a result of the increasing use of these
application methods.  Floater application will have minor effects in 1985
and limited effects in 2010 which are beneficial to the terrestrial systems
from a reduction in soil compaction.
                                     38

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Research Needs - Research is needed to determine nutrient runoff variations
associated with alternative application methods.

Improved Nutrient Placement (7.6)

Improved nutrient placement may involve either aerial, water,  side band
or broadcast applications depending on prior methods and/or time of appli-
cation during the growing season.

Extensiveness - In 1976, an estimated 30 percent of the fertilizer was  ap-
plied under improved placement practices.  This percentage is  expected  to
increase only slightly by 2010.

Environmental Factors - As a result of improved practices, fertilizer re-
quirements, especially phosphorus, are expected to be slightly less than
under conventional practices.  The potential  also exists for less  nutrient
loss, both because of a relatively smaller requirement and more efficient
nutrient utilization.

Ecological Effects - Although improved nutrient placement has  the  potential
for less nutrient runoff, no significant effects on the ecological  systems
are expected.

Research Needs - No major environmental effects for research needs have
been identified.

Irrigation Application (7.7)

This practice involves the disposition of fertilizer with irrigation water
to the crops.

Extensiveness - An estimated 25 percent of all  irrigated cropland  received
applications of fertilizers in irrigation water in 1976.  This is  expected
to increase by 2010 to moderate levels.

Environmental Factors - This method of application facilitates multiple
applications and optimal rates and timing of applications, consequently,
increased fertilizer efficiency can be expected.  Although efficiency
increases, loss of nutrients in the tailwater is expected to increase
also,  but this  increase  is  not expected to be substantial.

Ecological Effects - The increased nutrient loss to tail waters is expected
to result in adverse but minor effects on the aquatic system in 1985 and
2010.   No significant effects are expected on the terrestrial  system or
on human health.

Research Needs - Research is needed in determining the amounts of  nutrient
loss associated with irrigation application,  including variations  in loss
due to alternative irrigation procedures.
                                    39

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8.  Soil-Plant Analysis (8)

The ecology workshop assigned ratings reflecting expected effects of soil-
plant analysis on ecological systems as listed below.  The +_ sign indicates
that the effects could be beneficial or adverse, depending on what other
nutrient management practices occur.


                                  Aquatic     Terrestrial    Human Health
Subtrend                       1985   2010    1985   2010    1985    2010

8.1 Soil-PIant Analysis         +1     +2       00       0       0
-  Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
    on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 - minor and 5 = major


Soil-Plant Analysis  (8.1)

Soil-plant analysis  involves monitoring nutrient uptake, soil nutrients
available, and plant condition to provide information to adjust fertilizer
rates, timing, and cultural practices.

Extensiveness - About a fourth  of the cropland under production was covered
by some form of soil  analysis  in 1976 while  less than 5  percent was covered
by plant analysis.   Normally these analyses  are conducted once every three
years for a specific production unit; consequently the maximum coverage in
a given year that could be expected would be approximately one-third of the
cropland under production.  It  is anticipated  that the actual coverage in
2010 will  be less than 30 percent in any one year.

Environmental Factors - Generally, increased fertilizer  application rates
can be expected as  a result of  the conduct of  soil-piant analyses.   Conse-
quently the increasing trend towards the use of these techniques should in-
crease overall  fertilizer use.   Although the overall  use can  be expected to
increase,  the actual  nutrient  runoff should  decrease because  of the efficiency
involved.   This efficiency would occur from  better timing, more effective
nutrient balance, and by better meeting plant  demands.

Ecological  Effects - The  effects  of the  increasing  use  of  soil-plant  analy-
sis  on  human  health  and  the terrestrial  systems are  not expected to be  sig-
nificant.   However,  effects on  the  aquatic  system may be beneficial or
adverse depending on the  other  nutrient  management  techniques  used.   If
proper management is used,  runoff will  decrease,  resulting in  an improve-
ment of the  system.  However,  if  the  expected increases in fertilizer use
involve improper management, degradation  of the system  can be  expected.

Research Needs - On-going research  designed to  improve  techniques  in  soil-
plant analysis should  include  investigations  of environmental  effects.
                                      40

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9.  Alternative Residual Disposal  (9)

Alternatives for feedlot waste disposal include storage, on-site utiliza-
tion and off-site disposal.  The most significant change involving the use
of these methods is expected to be an increase in off-site disposal; con-
sequently, this is the only alternative analyzed in the study.  In its eco-
logical assessment, the workshop assigned the following ratings to reflect
the anticipated effects on each of the ecosystems.
Subtrend
9.1 Off-site Disposal
   Aquatic     Terrestrial     Human  Health
1985   2010    1985   2010     1985     2010
	(Index Rating)*  	

 -1      -2      +1      +1       -1       -1
*/
-  Rating Index - Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
   on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 = minor and 5 = major.
Off-site Disposal  (9.1)

Off-site disposal  involves land application of both solids and liquids
through spreading  and irrigation.  Application is expected to be made
primarily on ranges, pastures and cropland.

Extensiveness -  In 1976, about 500 million tons of animal  wastes were
generated in feedlots.  The amount is expected to increase by about 30
percent in 1985  and 70 percent by 2010.  Most of the increase will  be
disposed of through land application.  At a typical disposal  rate of 40
tons/acre, these incremental increases would require about 4  million
acres for disposal  in 1985 and 8 million in 2010.

Environmental Factors - Manure generally improves the water holding capac-
ity of the soil  and consequently, decreases total surface  runoff.   Although
the total surface  runoff is decreased, the concentration of nitrogen and
organic material is increased in the runoff.  There has been  no research
which directly relates sediment loss with land application.  However, with
a reduction in surface runoff, it can be concluded that a  reduction in
sediment loss would occur.  Application of manure can generally be ex-
pected to increase soil infiltration and soil nitrogen.  This increases
the potential for  production, but  also, the potential for nitrate pollu-
tion of ground water.

Ecological Effects - The increase in nitrogen and BOD in surface water can
be expected to increase eutrophication and accelerate algae blooms in the
surface water with land application.  Although the overall effect on the
aquatic system is  expected to be adverse (minor in 1985 and limited in
                                    41

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 2010),  the  beneficial effect on the terrestrial  system  is expected  to  be
 minor with  an enhancement of the  soil  structure  resulting from  the  in-
 creased water holding capacity and the addition  of organic matter.   The
 increased soil  infiltration rates promote  leaching and  pose  a potential
 danger  of nitrate poisoning in well water.  This  adverse human  health  ef-
 fect is expected to  be minor in 1985 and 2010, however.

 Research Needs  - Research is needed both to determine amounts of  pollutants
 generated with  land  application at varying rates  and to assess  ecological
 effects of  this application.  Also, the economic  feasibility of hauling
 manure  longer distances needs further  analysis.   Research in the  ecological
 area should include  investigation of long-term effects  of nitrates  on
 humans, the effects  of high sodium content in rations on soil defloccula-
 tion, and the rotations required  to reduce the effects  of copper, arsenic,
 and sodium  in rations.

 10.  Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates  (10)

 In Phase I  of this study, grazing practices and  stocking rates  were  analyzed
 as two  separate trends.  However, because  of the  interdependence  of  these
 practices,  the  two have been reclassified  as a single trend  in  Phase II.
 The environmental and ecological  effects of these subtrends  were  evaluated.
 The initial  subtrend includes an  examination of  the effects  brought  about by
 changes in  the  overall relationships between the  two basic grazing  systems:
 continuous  and  specialized.  The  ratings assigned by the ecology  workshop
 to each of  the  subtrends are listed below.
                                    Aquatic     Terrestrial    Human Health
                                 1985   2010    1985   2010    1985    2010
                                               •(Index Rating)*
10.1 and 10.2 Continuous
     and specialized grazing      +1     +2      +2+3       0       0
10.3 Complementary forage
      seeding                      00       0-1       0       0
10.4 Controlled livestock
      grazing                     +1     +1      +1+3       0       0
—  Index Rating = Beneficial (+) or adverse (-) ecological effects rating
   on a scale of 1  to 5, where 1 = minor, and 5 = major
                                      42

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Continuous and Specialized Grazing (10.1 and 10.2)

Asjndicated above, this subtrend encompasses the two basic grazing systems
being utilized on range and pasture.  In continuous grazing, livestock have
unrestricted access to any part of the range or pasture throughout the
grazing period.  In the specialized systems, which include rotation systems,
access is restricted during the growing season.  In this analysis, the focus
is on rangessince the differences of the two systems on pasture is minimized
with the annual improvement associated with pasture.

Extensiveness - In 1970 about 750 million acres of range were grazed; 85
percent of this was grazed under the continuous system while 15 percent was
grazed under the more intensive specialized systems.  By 2010, it is esti-
mated that close to 800 million acres will be grazed, of which 35 percent
will be under specialized grazing and only about 65 percent under continuous

Environmental Factors - In general, the trend towards specialized systems
can be expected to increase the basal area, improve the quality of vege-
tation, and reduce bare areas on the range.  Consequently, a reduction in
runoff of both sediment and nutrients can be expected.  Soil conditions
will be somewhat improved from increased infiltration rate and decreased
compaction.  On the other hand, the increased soil infiltration will in-
crease the potential of nitrate contamination of ground water by leaching.

Ecological Effects - Reduced runoff associated with this subtrend would
result in minor beneficial effects to the aquatic system in 1985 and limited
effects in 2010.  The increased quality and productivity in vegetation would
increase the species diversity with limited beneficial effects in 1985 and
moderate effects in 2010 on the terrestrial ecosystems.  No significant ef-
fect on human health is anticipated from the potential leaching of nitrate
to ground water because of improved infiltration rates on ranges.

Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the effects of nutrient
and sediment runoff under both specialized and continuous grazing systems.

Complementary Forage Seedings (10.3)

This subtrend involves the increasing use of restricted and seeded access
plots with the objective of complementing the existing forage, usually
before or after normal forages are available.

Extensiveness.  Currently this practice is largely in the experimental stage
and is expected to have only limited application by 1985.  By 2010, it will
be in moderate use according to the Range and Pasture Panel (Phase  I -
Volume I).

Environmental Factors - Productivity in both forage and beef is expected to
be enhanced with the adoption of this grazing practice.  The improvement
in vegetation will result from less pressure on the range from potential
                                     43

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overgrazing.   This practice can be expected to have both short-term and
long-term effects.  In the short-term, increased runoff of sediment and
nutrients can be expected during periods of renovation and seeding.  How-
ever, in the long-term, the improved vegetation will decrease the runoff.
The overall impact is not expected to be significant.   The potential for
pollution of ground water will  be increased.

Ecological  Effects - The overall ecological effect from this practice is
not considered to be significant in the near future.  By 2010, there may
be minor detrimental effects on the terrestrial systems brought about by
tame grasses in the seeded plots.  The introduced grasses will reduce
plant diversity.

Research Needs - This practice is currently in the research stage.   As it
is developed, research should include environmental effects assessments.

Controlled Livestock Grazing (10.4)

This subtrend reflects an increasing use of stocking rates specifically
designed to maintain or improve range conditions.  This type of grazing
is accomplished under the "proper use" concept.

Extensiveness - In 1970, an estimated 85.7 million acres of range were
under exploitive type management and being overgrazed.   This amounted to
approximately 10 percent of the range being grazed.  The goal under the
Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resource Planning Act of 1974 is to reduce
this to zero by 2000.

Environmental Factors - The increasing use of proper stocking rates or con-
trolled grazing is expected to increase the production and quality of
forages on range.  This improved vegetation will provide greater ground
cover and reduce runoff.  Higher infiltration rates can be expected to
increase the potential for leaching and contamination  of ground water.
However, this potential is not considered significant.   Soil conditions
can be expected to be improved with less erosion and compaction and in-
creased infiltration.

Ecological  Effects - Increasing use of controlled livestock grazing can be
expected to have beneficial effects on both aquatic and terrestrial systems
However, the effects are expected to be only minor by  1985.  By 2010, the
effects on the terrestrial system should be moderate as result of in-
creased plant diversity.

Research Needs - A need exists for research on the extent of nutrient and
sediment runoff under controlled grazing.
                                     44

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                      B.  Silviculture Sector Trends


Five (5)_trends and 16 subtrends, as shown in Exhibit II-3, were selected
for detailed analysis within the silviculture sector.  The rationale for
selection of the trends, with the exception of the number 5 trend, was that
each trend was rated as having relatively high environmental  implications
in the silviculture sector by the Phase I (Volume I) workshop.   The number
5 trend was selected because one of its subtrends, clearcutting, has be-
come a highly sensitive and controversial issue with the public.

Trends and subtrends within silviculture have different levels  of regional
significance and these differences are noted within the discussion sections
below.  In particular, two of the top ranked subtrends, permanent road con-
struction (1.1) and mechanical site preparation (2.2) are confined almost
exclusively to certain regions, i.e., permanent road construction in the
Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast, and mechanical site preparation in the
South.

As with the agriculture trends, detailed analysis of silviculture trends-
subtrends includes extensiveness of use, environmental factors, ecological
effects, and research needs.  However, ecological effects of silviculture
trends were not determined in a formal workshop setting as were the eco-
logical effects of agriculture trends.  Since current literature deals
with ecological assessments of different silviculture practices, much of
the ecological assessment presented herein required only a detailed re-
view of the literature.  Additionally, however, a professional  ecologist
reviewed the ecological findings and added pertinent information where
necessary.  The present study of silviculture was largely confined to trends
stimulated by technological developments in agriculture and silviculture.
Further research should investigate the kinds that reflect national and
international economic developments.

Ecological effects were evaluated and rated in five areas for silviculture's
subtrends-trends:  aquatic life, terrestrial life, human health, recreational
opportunity and aesthetics.  The recreation and aesthetics effects of sil-
vicultural activities are considered important because they,  too, are a part
of the composite ecosystem.

1.  Access to Timber Resources (1)

Four subtrends are included for detailed analysis in the access to timber
resources trend:  permanent road construction, project road construction,
road maintenance, and road reconstruction.  These subtrends are of par-
ticular environmental importance in the Western region where terrain is
often a limiting factor in road construction.

Permanent Road Construction (1.1)

Permanent roads will be constructed to gain access to yet untapped old
virin qrowth forests, primarily in the West.  Once built, these roads
                                      45

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   Exhibit II-3.
Summary of selected Phase  II  trends  and subtrends in
             silviculture
Trend
                                Subtrend
1.  Access to Timber Resource
2.  Site Preparation
3.  Log Extraction


4.  Utilization



5.  Cutting System
               1.1   Permanent  road  construction
               1.2   Road  maintenance
               1.3   Project  road  construction
               1.4   Road  reconstruction

               2.1   Log extraction
               2.2   Mechanical  preparation
               2.3   Burning  prescription
               2.4   Chemical treatment
               2.5   Fertilizer treatment
               2.6   Soil  moisture control

               3.1   Harvest  unit  layout
               3.2   Equipment  use and development

               4.1   Extraction residue recovery
               4.2   Minimum  size  and quality extension
               4.3   Species  use enlargement

               5.1   Clearcutting
                                    46

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will be used continually as collector and feeder roads for the dendritic
network of logging spur roads around them.

Extensiveness - In 1976, the total mileage of permanent forest access roads
in the U.S. was not known.  However, forest roads in the northwest regions
of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and southeast Alaska totaled some 248,000
miles.  Considerably fewer permanent forest roads exist in the Rocky Moun-
tains and in the East.  Additionally, the private silviculture industry
has its own systems of permanent access roads which are not monitored by
public agencies.

New construction of permanent access roads is expected, for the most part,
to relate directly to the timber sales policy of the National Forest Ser-
vice  (NFS).  Current road construction, with the even-flow, non-declining
policy of NFS,  is about 6,200 miles per year with the completion of all per-
manent roads scheduled before 2030.  Yearly construction is expected to de-
cline through 2010, as the need for permanent access roads diminishes.   An
estimated 80 percent of all NFS road construction and 100 percent of Bureau
of Land Management (BLM) construction will occur in the West.  In the East
and South, road systems have long been established and construction of per-
manent roads will be minor.

Environmental Factors - As a result of NFS even-flow, non-declining produc-
tion  policies,  construction of permanent roads is not expected to increase
annual silviculture production.  Should this policy change to meet infla-
tion  and the increasing demand for timber products, then the NFS road
building program could be accelerated.  This would result in road access
to far more timber area and volume per year.  Permanent roads will remove
some  commercial forest from production, but production losses will be
rather insignificant.

Road  construction, depending importantly on regional location, results in
soil  loss, changes in water quality, water yield, and water flow patterns.
The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency has established guidelines for
minimizing the  environmental impacts of road constructions.  Those guide-
lines include optimum road location for the type of terrain, lower stand-
ards  for road width and grade, and use of cuts and fills to minimize soil
movement.  Offsetting the beneficial effects of these practices will be the
need  to construct roads in areas previously left unlogged.  These areas are
most  often increasingly steep with difficult terrain that does not lend it-
self  to road construction.  Although soil losses are usually greater for
road  construction than for other silviculture practices, better planning
and management  of road construction in the future will produce less severe
environmental impacts.  Roads, once constructed and stabilized, should not
result in further soil losses.

Pesticide and nutrient loss will not be a factor in road construction.  Cer-
tain  building materials (e.g., asphalt and oil) may be transported from the
site  via runoff and sediment to receiving surface waters.
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Ecological Effects - Construction of permanent roads (and other logging-
related roads) will continue to have adverse aquatic and terrestrial ef-
fects in  1985 and 2010.  These effects are expected to decrease in inten-
sity with better planning of road construction and with the decline in
total annual road construction through 2010.  Aquatic effects include
turbidity, sediment loading, impediment of water flow, and with stream-
side road construction, thermal pollution with the removal of forest can-
opy.  New edge areas will benefit wildlife, but roads may also disrupt
normal wildlife travel lanes and will create a hazard to wildlife crossing
such roads.  Excessive sedimentation can be destructive of benthic
organisms and their living strata, and can destroy trout and salmon
spawning  areas.

Aesthetic impacts of permanent road construction can be minimized with
careful road location with respect to visibility from other viewpoints.
However,  even with optimum road location, aesthetics will be adversely
affected  if the road is to virgin areas.  Some recreational opportunities
will increase with greater access to forests.  However, wilderness exper-
iences will be essentially eliminated with road construction into virgin
areas.  Human health should not be significantly affected with permanent
road construction.

Research Needs - More effective planning and management are the key to re-
duction of the environmental  impacts of road construction.   Necessary plan-
ning includes the development of improved standards.   Consequently, re-
search is needed to determine minimum road standards  compatible with road
use requirements in areas such as cuts, fills,  bed width, and ballast.

Road Maintenance (1.2)

Generally, all permanent and project access roads require constant atten-
tion to insure that logging traffic is not impeded and that drainage sys-
tems are kept free of obstacles.   Additionally, access roads currently
not in use are periodically checked for damage.

Extensiveness - Extensiveness of road maintenance on  timber access roads is
not known for 1976, but estimated to be limited.   As  more permanent and
project roads are built, maintenance needs will increase and by 2010
use is expected to reach important levels.

Environmental  Factors - Road maintenance will not directly affect silvi-
culture productivity.   However, productivity will be  indirectly affected if
road maintenance is needed before a timber area can be reentered for har-
vesting.   Resource use patterns will not be changed with road maintenance
practices.

Road maintenance can potentially increase or decrease soil  loss to surface
water.   Erosion problems will  decrease with the increased use of road sur-
facing, use of mulches or green cover on bared roadway soil, and clearance
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of drainage canals.  Grading slopes back to the original slope condi-
tions will often reduce erosion losses, also.  However, grading of un-
surfaced roads can cause increased soil loss temporarily.  In general,
maintenance of a road is considered preferable to no maintenance from
the environmental viewpoint.

Ecological Effects - Road maintenance can result in either minor beneficial
or adverse aquatic effects depending upon the type of maintenance practice.
With some practices, sediment loadings to surface water will  temporarily be
increased.  Clearance of drainage systems and certain other practices will
reduce the sediment load.

Effects on the terrestrial ecosystem will be minimal.  Proper drainage flow
and surfacing of roads will reduce soil erosion losses.

Aesthetic values will not be significantly affected by road maintenance.
Recreational and wilderness opportunities will be increased to the extent
that passages to recreational areas are open.  Human health effects are not
a  significant  factor with  road  maintenance.

Research Needs - Research is needed in the development of equipment designed
to minimize soil disturbance.

Project Road Construction (1.3)

Project roads are built solely  to gain access to a certain area for har-
vesting purposes.  After harvesting, these roads are abandoned or retired
with the idea that they can be  reopened at a later date.

Extensiveness - Extensiveness of project road construction in 1976 was esti-
mated to be moderate and expected to increase slightly by 1985 with a de-
crease back to a moderate level of use by 2010.  The peak in 1985 will re-
sult from expected increased harvesting activity on private and federal
forests in the West, requiring  the construction of access roads, either
permanent or project.  In general, each square mile (640 acres) of timber
harvested requires about 5 miles of road access but this amount varies
with the harvesting system and  local forest conditions.

Environmental Factors - As with permanent access roads, project roads will
not directly affect annual timber production based on current NFS policies.
Project roads will only provide access to resources so that harvesting can
occur.

Project road construction has the same environmental implications as per-
manent road construction, primarily increasing soil loss.  However, soil
loss could be greater for project roads in that these roads may not be so
carefully engineered as permanent roads.  Additionally, project roads that
are not surfaced will  tend to have greater soil loss.  Properly engineered
project roads do have the potential to be reconverted to vegetative growth
or even timber (although compaction will reduce soil quality in that road
area).  Thus, soil loss with project roads is often temporary, occurring
only with harvesting activity and until the area is revegetated.


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 Ecological  Effects  -  Again  project  roads  present  the  same  ecological  ef-
 fects  as  permanent  roads, but with  the  potential  for  recovery  with  reveg-
 etation.  The  aquatic ecosystem will  experience increased  turbidity,  sedi-
 ment loading,  altered water-flow  patterns,  and occasionally  thermal pollu-
 tion when roads  are placed  too close  to streams.

While soil erosion will be increased (often temporarily) and wildlife
habitat and  travel lanes disrupted,   project roads will  ultimately bene-
fit some wildlife species.   On  road abandonment,  a new succession of wild-
life will  enter the area as  revegetation occurs.   Increased edge will  in-
crease  species diversity.  Revegetation  will provide more forage for elk
and deer.   As canopy and overstory close over the  abandoned roads, these
effects will diminish.

Project roads are less in sight of traffic and temporary, so that their
aesthetic effects will tend  to  be  minimal.  There  will,  however, be non-
pleasing visual experiences  with  some project roads.

Recreational opportunities,  as  hunting and wildlife viewing,  will  increase
with project access roads.   Again, wilderness experience will be diminished
in many areas.  Human  health will  not be significantly affected with pro-
ject road construction.

Research Needs - As in the case of permanent road  construction, there  is
a need for research in development of minimum road standards for project
access.

Road Reconstruction (1.4)

In some cutover forest areas, roads were constructed with no thought to
future  use.   Many are  poorly located on  the terrain and  inadequately con-
structed and maintained.  The roads must be partially or completely re-
constructed  for forest reentry.

Extensiveness - Road reconstruction is currently  estimated to be relatively
minor,  but expected to increase to moderate levels by 2010.  All commercial
forests will experience some type  of road  reconstruction.  The USFS is ex-
pected  to reconstruct  approximately 31,000 miles  of roads per year.   The
number  of access roads that  will  be reconstructed  or reestablished on
better routes in privately-owned forests is not known.

Environmental Factors  - Road reconstruction indirectly affects silviculture
productivity in that these roads  allow access to  timber area for harvesting,

Road reconstruction will result in soil  loss, but  loss should usually be
less than that for permanent or project road constructions.  However,  if
reconstruction follows an original road  bed that  was poorly located for
the soil  and slope conditions,  significant soil  loss will occur.  Proper
relocation of a poorly located  road is usually preferable to allowing
the original road to remain.
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Ecological Effects - Assuming care in layout and construction, road recon-
struction will have an adverse, but temporary effect on the aquatic eco-
system.  Receiving waters will experience increased turbidity, sediment
loading, and a potential reduction in species diversity in highly im-
pacted areas.

Terrestrial effects from road reconstruction will be similar to those re-
sulting from permanent and project roads.  However, wildlife disruptions
may be less intense since the roads are already present and reconstruction
will not involve virgin timber areas.

Aesthetic values may not be particularly affected with road reconstruction.
These roads are already present, and, therefore, any displeasing aesthetic
impacts occurred with the original construction.

Recreational opportunities will benefit in that access to timber areas is
enlarged with road reconstruction.  Human health effects are not significant
with road reconstruction.

Research Needs - No specific research needs were identified.   However, the
needs for research involving minimum road standards discussed previously
would be applicable to this subtrend.

2.  Site Preparation (2)

Site preparation involves practices that treat the soil surface to encourage
the desired type of forest regeneration growth.  Usually new forest growth
is reestablished as soon as possible after harvest in logged areas.   Six
subtrends are evaluated in this site preparation trend.  Each subtrend will
have regional importance since each forest type utilizes different prepar-
ations for that particular forest growth.

Log.Extraction (2.1)

Log extraction methods are used for the establishment or regeneration of a
timber species that requires a mineral soil environment for germinating
and seedling stages.  This method involves dragging logs across the ground,
pushing aside the organic overlayer and brush, and baring soil for a seed
bed.

Extensiveness - In 1976, extensiveness of use was estimated to be moderate.
By 1985 and through 2010, use should decline to limited levels, reflecting
the anticipated replacement of natural regeneration with artificial  regen-
eration.  All four forest regions have used log extraction methods  to some
extent, for the regeneration of conifers.  However, this site preparation
practice seems to be more common in the West after harvest of old growth
forests.  Site preparation will occur only once in every rotation of 30
to 100 years.
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Environmental Factors - With prompt site preparation and regeneration,
productivity often increases.  Resource use patterns are not expected to
change with log extraction practices.

Baring the soil with this practice will result in increased runoff, soil
erosion and sediment loadings of receiving waters.  The steepness of the
terrain, type of soil, climatic conditions, and degree of soil disturbance
will determine the severity of erosion and runoff losses.  For example,
scarifying red pine stands on the flat terrain of Minnesota will result
in minimal soil movement, cable yarding on steep Western slopes will re-
sult in significant soil loss.  However, forest soils would only be sub-
ject to these soil disturbances once during each 30 to 100 year rotation
and then only until vegetation reappears to protect against soil movement.
Currently the trend with log extraction practices is toward better manage-
ment to minimize soil erosion and runoff losses.

Ecological Effects - The effects of log extraction practices on the aquatic
ecosystem will be relatively minor.  Since bared soil tends to revegetate
quickly, the opportunity for surface transport of materials to water is
shortlived.  Also, forest areas will only be subject to site preparation
every 30 to 100 years.  However, log extraction on certain soils and steep
terrains could result in large enough sediment loadings so that for a
period of time area aquatic life will suffer adverse effects.

Plant and wildlife diversity may decrease in the terrestrial ecosystem.
Log extraction practices prevent natural plant succession from reaching
climax communities.  Wildlife habitat, food supplies, and travel lanes
are also destroyed with this practice.  With revegetation of the forest
area, the emerging ecological community may be quite different from the
original community.

Since the principal objective of site preparation with log extraction is to
return the forest to production as quickly as  possible after harvest, dis-
pleasing aesthetic effects will  be shortlived.   Recreation opportunities
will not be significantly affected.  Creation  of more edge area will tem-
porarily shelter more wildlife for hunting and viewing.   Human health ef-
fects are not considered to be significant.

Research Needs - Research is needed to determine the minimum amount of site
preparation required in establishing regeneration.  Also, research is needed
to develop more efficient methods and less damaging alternatives to log
extraction.

Mechanical  Preparation (2.2)

Mechanical  preparation involves the use of mechanical equipment having
blades, rakes, gouges, chopping wheels, or other implements for vegetation
destruction.   The forest is reduced to bare ground to favor reproduction
of pine primarily in the South.
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Extensiveness - The evaluation workshop (Phase I, Volume I) estimated this
practice to be in moderate use in 1976, increasing to important use by
1985, and declining back to moderate levels by 2010.   In the South, an
estimated 29.6 million acres of timber stands, hardwood and pine hardwood,
could be cleared and planted to faster growing, more desirable pine.   Me-
chanical site preparation will be used on much of the converted forest
stands.  However, a large part of these 29.6 million acres is owned by
private non-industrial interests who are not necessarily interested in
silviculture production from their lands.  Thus, the actual acreage of
hardwood forests available for pine conversion is not known.

Environmental Factors - Intensive mechanical preparation in the South, for
example, is considered to result in the most serious  erosion problem that
the Southern hill country experiences.  The broadcast baring of soils,
some of them already depleted from past agricultural  use, may foster a
dangerous cycle of topsoil and nutrient loss and increased sediment load-
ings in streams.  Compaction and sealing the macrospore structure of forest
soils prevents proper water absorption and increases  surface runoff.   Use
of lighter equipment and reducing soil disruptions will tend to reduce the
environmental impacts of this practice.  However, improvement will  be com-
plicated by the fragility of some of the depleted soils now supporting low
grade forests.

Ecological Effects - Aquatic ecosystems will experience increases in  tur-
bidity related pollution and in thermal pollution to  a point where  aquatic
life may be endangered.  Mechanical site preparation  results in the conver-
sion of a diverse ecosystem to a monoculture system.   Wildlife numbers and
diversity are lost with the destruction of habitat, food supplies,  and
travel lanes.  Additionally, the land itself may suffer from losses of top-
soil, nutrient cycles, and water holding capacity.  Establishment of new
vegetative cover will help control erosion, but local-regional terrestrial
ecosystems will be permanently changed with conversion to monoculture forests.

 Aesthetic values will  be  adversely affected by this  practice.   After  site
 preparation,  these  areas  give the impression of agriculture land,  with  very
 few residues  remaining on the ground.   However,  where  mechanical site pre-
 paration has  occurred, aesthetics do  not seem to be  affected  to  the  point
 of public resistance to this  practice.   Elimination  of diverse  forests  re-
 duces recreational  potential, including hunting  and  wildlife  viewing.   For
 a  period following  site preparation,  quail  hunting will  improve  in some
 areas until  the new forest closes in.   Human health  will  not  be  affected
 with this practice.

 Research Needs  - Research is  needed to develop more  efficient equipment  used
 in mechanical  preparation.  Also, research to develop  improved  alternatives
 to mechanical  preparation is  desired.

 Burning Prescription (2.3)

 Prescribed  and  controlled burns  can be used as site  preparation  practices
 on a less intense scale than  log  extraction or mechanical  site  prepara-
 tions.   Prescribed  burning reduces vegetative competition without  the
 damaging soil  disruption  effects.
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Extensiveness - Annual needs for all prescribed burning total some 12.35
million acres, with 95 percent of these acres located in the South.  How-
ever, this practice is also used for disposal of logging residues, as well
as site preparation.  Thus, total acreages of prescribed burns for site
preparation alone are not known, but estimated to be of moderate use in
1976.  Use is expected to remain fairly constant (moderate) through 1985
to the end of the study period.  Future air quality regulations could
restrict the use of this practice in the South.

Environmental  Factors - Productivity of prescribed burn areas is enhanced
by the elimination of overstory and the preparation of seed beds.   Certain
species, as jack pine, require fire to prepare their cones  to drop seeds.
Fire also releases nutrients to the soil  which can lead to  production in-
creases in some areas.

Under controlled conditions, fire should not disturb soil  to the extent
of causing surface runoff, sediment loadings, or thermal  pollution in
surface waters.  Nutrients released by fire prescription  may be leached
away if not quickly taken up again.  Thus, nitrates in the  ground water
could temporarily be increased.

Ecological Effects - Ecological effects reflect the use of fire under con-
trolled conditions only.  Aquatic effects are very minor  from controlled
burns.  Terrestrial  ecosystems will be affected with the  reduction of wild-
life habitat, food supply, and cover areas.  The season of the year and the
wildlife species present will  determine how severe terrestrial  disruptions
will be.  In general, terrestrial life effects are considered to be less
for prescribed burns than for mechanical  site preparation and log extraction
practices.  Additionally, the nutrient cycle is temporarily accelerated,
but should return to its norm without significant effects on the soil.

Aesthetics will be affected, but should recover within a  relatively short
time.  Recreational  opportunities are increased to the extent that clear-
ance of underbrush provides for easier access to wildlife in hunting.  Human
health will not be affected with current and projected use of prescribed
burns.  Burning vegetation does not release toxic substances or noxious
fumes to the air.  The amount of particulate matter from controlled burnings
is also relatively low.

Research Needs - There is a need for research in determining the time re-
quired for soil biota to recover from prescribed and controlled burning.
Since the recovery time will vary considerably between regions, study is
required to identify these regional differences.  Further, more research
is needed to determine the optimal  time (seasonally) to burn in order to
minimize the ecological impacts.

Chemical Treatment (2.4)

Chemical treatment for site preparation involves the application jof herbi-
cides to remove hardwood trees and/or brush weed species and to provide
for replacement with more desirable species, often softwood.  Herbicide
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applications may be followed by fire to remove dried vegetation.  With
brush removal only, fire is often not needed, and natural revegetation
will replace the cover removed.

Extensiveness - In 1976, the use of herbicides for site preparation was
minor.  By 2010, this practice is expected to increase slightly to limited
levels.  When herbicides are used, application rates are comparable to
those used in agriculture, but application is once in a 30 to 100 year
rotation.  It is estimated that about 99 million acres may be treated with
herbicides over time.

Environmental Factors - Herbicide use for site preparation will  enhance
productivity and has certain advantages over site preparation methods that
disrupt the soil surface.  Soil loss will be much less for this  practice
and may be insignificant in most areas.  Water flow will be tempoarily
increased until revegetation occurs.

Herbicide levels in receiving waters may be increased with surface runoff
and aerial drift during application.  While herbicide application in a
given area will usually occur, only once during a 30 to 100 year rotation
and have minimal impacts over time, careless application (directly spraying
over water or aerial application on a windy day) could potentially result
in significant pollution levels in water.  Streamside buffer zones and
careful application methods are expected to minimize herbicides  entering
surface waters, however.

Ecological Effects - With careful application, herbicide use for site prep-
aration is not expected to have significant aquatic effects.  Terrestrial
ecosystems are affected adversely with herbicide use.  All vegetation is
removed, thus destroying wildlife habitat, food supplies, and cover plus
reducing species diversity.  Plant and animal successions may be abruptly
changed with this practice.

Clearance of underbrush will make for easier access for certain  recreational
opportunities, e.g., improved hunting, easier hiking.  Aesthetic impacts
will be adverse with the destruction of vegetation.  Human health effects
will be insignificant with careful application.  Potential human health
dangers do exist with direct contact with certain herbicides during appli-
cation.

Research Needs - Further research is needed in identifying the effects of
herbicide in the environment as a result of chemical treatment.   This re-
search is expected to bring into focus the reaction of the soil  biomass
to chemicals and the impacts of volatization of chemicals in the atmosphere.

Fertilizer Treatment (2.5)

Fertilizer treatment is required for site preparation in forest areas that
require nutrient supplement for successful establishment of desired species.
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Extensiveness - Fertilizer treatment of forest land is used primarily in
the South, where moist, phosphate deficient soils need nutrient supple-
ment for the growth of loblolly pine.  Currently the use of fertilizer in
all forest areas is minor, however.  By 1985 and through 2010, use is
expected to increase only to limited levels.  The expected increase in the
South's use of fertilizer will  occur with the increased conversion of poorly
drained lands (wetland areas) to forest areas.  Some 2.0 million acres of
land will have been drained by 1977 with many areas requiring phosphate
supplements of 50-100 Ib/acre.

Environmental Factors - Productivity of an area will be increased with fer-
tilizer application, especially when drainage plus phosphate addition cre-
ates a pine forest out of an area previously unable to support forest growth.
Fertilizer use will be increased from a zero base to high levels of appli-
cation.  Phosphate requirements are expected to be 50-100 Ib/acre and phos-
phate levels in nearby surface water may increase with fertilizer treatment.
However, no other pollutant changes will result.

Ecological Effects - The ecological effects assessment reflects only the
use of fertilizer treatment for site preparation (ecological  effects of
land drainage are presented below in the soil  moisture control subtrend).
High levels of phosphate application could potentially cause eutrophica-
tion in the aquatic ecosystem.   Species diversity and water quality will
be adversely affected in aquatic systems.  Terrestrial  effects (from ferti-
lizer application alone) will not be significant.  Human health effects
are not expected to result from fertilizer application, although phosphate
loads may affect the potability of water.

Research Needs - Research is needed to  determine  the environmental  effects
of phosphate applied to forest  lands, primarily in relation to the  aquatic
system.  The effects of other nutrients, if applicable, should also be
assessed.

Soil  Moisture Control  (2.6)

Soil  moisture control  refers herein to  the drainage of wetlands in  the South
for the successful  establishment of desired forest species, usually loblolly
pine.

Extensiveness - Extensiveness of soil moisture control  is expected  to be
limited and remain  fairly stable between 1976  and 1985.  By 2010,  use should
decline to minor levels.  The total amount of wetland available for conver-
sion  is not known,  but is probably not  less than  5 million acres.

Environmental Factors - Silviculture productivity will  increase with the
drainage of wetlands and the establishment of loblolly pine forests.   Fer-
tilizer use is expected to increase from a zero base to relatively  high
application rates,  e.g., 50-100 Ib/acre of phosphates.
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Drainage will result in water movement from stagnant areas, but the move-
ment is expected to be too slow to result in significant sediment trans-
port.  Surface water may become charged with phosphates, but the levels
have not been determined.

Ecological Effects - Soil moisture control is expected to have major aquatic
and terrestrial effects.  Drainage of wet lands will affect water table
levels.  This practice may result in a complete change from an aquatic
ecosystem to a terrestrial ecosystem.  Many wetlands provide habitat that
is critical for the existence of wildlife species, especially waterfowl
using wetlands for wintering areas.  Plant species and the ecological
community existing in the moist environment will be replaced with the
limited diversity of pine forests.

Recreational opportunities for waterfowl hunting and wildlife viewing will
be diminished with drainage of wetlands.  Aesthetics will  be adversely af-
fected since drainage of wetlands represents an irreversible change in the
type of visual experience available to man.  Human health is not expected
to be affected by actual drainage of wetlands except that insect popula-
tions may be reduced in stagnant areas.

Research Needs - There is a need for research involving the long term ef-
fects of extensive drainage and phosphate loadings associated with  site
preparation in the wetlands of the Southeast.  Ecosystem changes may be ir-
reversible and long-term species diversity effects should be assessed.

3.  Log Extraction (3)

Log extraction is the process employed to bring useable portions of a  tree
to the point of loading for transport.   Methods and equipment used  in  log
extraction vary with regional difference in timber size,  species harvested,
terrain, and other physical  aspects.   Closely tied to log  extraction is the
cutting system (5) trend which considers the extent and type of timber to
be removed.  Log extraction methods and equipment will  largely be determined
by the type of cutting system.

Harvest Unit Layout-Intensity of Effort (3.1)

This practice is particularly important in the harvest of old growth forests
in the West where silviculture methods generally favor conversion from un-
even aged old growth to even aged regeneration.  Planning has always been
an important phase of extraction, but generally oriented toward the lowest
cost.  This practice has increased the intensity of effort to balance
cost savings against environmental cost.  Planning trends  are toward better
control of size and shape of harvest units, proper location of cutting
units, use of vegetation to hide cuts from conspicuous view, and mixing
of clearcut and selective cut systems to achieve minimal environmental
impacts.

Extensiveness - Planning of  harvest unit layouts is expected to  become  in-
creasingly important in old  growth forests of  the West.  Extensiveness was
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estimated to be moderate in 1976, and will  be important in 1985 and 2010.
Since much of the remaining old growth forests are in federal ownership,
institutional authority exists to achieve controlled planning of harvesting.

Environmental Factors - Productivity is not likely to be significantly
changed with careful  harvest planning.  Timber may be removed from a
given cutting block at a slower rate with planning and thus, decreases
productivity somewhat.  However, planning may also increase log utiliza-
tion and increase productivity.

Surface runoff and soil loss will be reduced with careful  harvest planning,
but losses may still  be significant in some areas.  Streamside buffer zones
may also be used in the harvesting to reduce sediment transport, although
such management zones are primarily used to provide stream shade and pro-
tect the water temperature.  Nutrient levels will increase in the soil with
timber residues remaining, and these nutrients are potentially available
for leaching.

Ecological Effects - Harvesting will result in adverse ecological effects,
but the effects are expected to be less intense with better harvesting
plans.  Soil losses will be reduced but receiving waters will still exper-
ience increased sediment and turbidity.  These effects will occur but once
during each harvesting period, and then only until revegetation appears.
Wildlife habitat will still be destroyed, but intensive harvest planning
will reduce the adverse impacts.  The ecological community will be less
diverse and less stable in even-aged forests compared to old growth forests.

Recreational opportunities are expected to decrease with this practice.  Ad-
verse aesthetic effects will be minimized with careful planning, but har-
vesting is still expected to result in some displeasing visual views.
Human health will not be significantly affected by this subtrend.

Research Needs - Long-term environmental impacts resulting from trends in
harvest unit layout-intensity of effort need to be determined.

Equipment Use and Development (3.2)

Until recently, log extraction methods used machinery adapted from other
uses.  Now the trend is toward machinery designed specifically for timber
harvesting needs with consideration for timber size, species harvested,
and terrain.  Fewer innovative changes will be made with machinery for
harvest of old growth forests in the West.   In the South,  however, equip-
ment is being developed to thin young stand and to harvest pulpwood and
smaller saw timber.  Older manual operations will give way to fully mech-
anized methods.

Extensiveness - The increase in roundwood production projected to 2010 will
increase the need for far more equipment, especially in the North and South,
possibly double what was in use in 1976.  In the West, equipment needs are
expected to remain fairly stable, since production will decline slightly
here.  Extensiveness of equipment use and development is moderate in 1976
and expected to increase to major levels by 2010.

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 Environmental  Factors  -  Productivity  is  expected  to  increase significantly
 with  new  equipment  developments.   Tree pulling equipment can recover 20 to
 ^b  percent  of  the tree volume  that otherwise  stays in the ground.  Soil
 compaction  is  less  with  newer  equipment  designs,  so  regeneration of a cut
 area  will be enhanced.

 Many  of the new  equipment  designs  are effective in reducing soil disrup-
 tions and consequent soil  loss  and water damages  on  steep and fragile
 slopes.   However, it should  be  emphasized that equipment changes will re-
 duce,  but not  prevent  problems  of  surface runoff, sediment losses, and
 water quality  degradation.

 Ecological  Effects  - Development of new  equipment and its use will reduce
 the adverse ecological effects  of  harvesting.  Sediment and resulting
 turbidity will be reduced  in the aquatic systems.  Soil compaction and
 erosion will be  reduced  and  benefit the  terrestrial  ecosystems.

 Recreational opportunities and  aesthetics will not be significantly af-
 fected by this subtrend.   Human health is not a factor with  equipment use
 and development.

 Research Needs - Research  to design new equipment to meet the specific  needs
 of each of  the regions is  needed.   Logging equipment needs  to be developed
 which will  decrease soil disturbance, detachment and transport.   Research
 efforts should be focused  on the requirements in the North  and South be-
 cause of the significant increases  in production expected.

 4.  Utilization  (4)

 Silviculture productivity  can be increased by utilizing the  total  forest
 biomass.  More fiber is  harvested  per unit of area through  extraction resi-
 due recovery, minimum  size and  quality extension, and species use enlarge-
 ment  practices.

 Extraction  Residue  Recovery  (4.1)

 With  extraction  residue  recover, greater use is made of the  total  fiber in
 each  harvested tree.   While only large sound logs used to be merchantible
 in the past, smaller logs  and logs  with defects are now being marketed.

 Extensiveness -  About  one  half  of  the nation's logging residues are gener-
 ated  in Pacific  Coast  forests,  22  million tons of logging residues each
year.  Logging residues will vary  with forest ownership and  type of sales
method.  On industrial owned forest land, average residue volume is 1,330
 ft3/acre.   On national forest land, average residue volume  is 3,130 ft3/
 acre.  The  primary  reason  for greater utilization on private industrial
owned land  is the type of  sales program.   Lump sum sales programs, com-
 pared to the NFS scaled  volume  sales program, results in greater utiliza-
tion of logging  residues.
                                     59

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Between 1968 and 1972, recovery of utility logs more than doubled,  in-
creasing from 177 million ft3 to 480 million ft3.  During the  same  period,
roundwood chip production increased from 75.5 thousand tons to 2049  thou-
sand tons.

Even with the increased use of logging residues  in the past ten years, the
potential  exists  for further increased residue  recovery.   At the national
level,  80 percent of pulp mill  requirements  are  supplied  by roundwood, and
only 20 percent by residues.  In the  fuel  using  sector of industry in the
Pacific Northwest,  15 percent of fuel  requirements are from mill  residues,
the remaining 85  percent comes  from fossil  fuels.

Currently,  it is  not economically feasible  to transport and market some
forest  residues at  existing process locations on  the  Pacific Coast area.
In the  NFS,  residue material is  being  yarded  to  concentration  points (YUM
program) where it is decked for  future use  or for burning.

 The evaluation workshop  (Phase  I,  Volume I) estimated  extraction  residue
 recovery  to  have moderate  levels of use in 1976  and  1985.   By  2010,  use will
 decline to minor levels,  primarily due to more efficient harvesting tech-
 niques and the replacement  of old  growth forests  with  young even-age tim-
 ber in the West.

 Environmental  Factors  -  Recovery of marketable forest  residues will  in-
 crease total  annual  silviculture production.  Other  forest  residues are
 not marketable and are collected for  burning purposes  only.

 The environmental  impacts  of increasing utilization  of the  forest biomass
 will be beneficial  up  to  a  point.  Partial removal of  forest  residues re-
 duces  fire hazards,  provides barriers against surface  runoff  and  soil  loss,
 and provides  protection  for the  regenerating forest.   Additionally, par-
 tial removal  of  residues  will reduce  the need for controlled  burns  that
 might  otherwise  be used.   Removing all residues  from a harvest sight, how-
 ever,  will increase  the  potential  for surface runoff,  soil  loss and nu-
 trient loss.

 Ecological Effects - Moderate levels  of utilization  are  expected  to have
 beneficial aquatic effects.  In  the aquatic ecosystem, less debris  will
 enter  streams, resulting  in improved  aquatic habitat.  In  the  terrestrial
 ecosystem, wildlife  habitat and  species diversity do not specifically de-
 pend upon the  presence or  absence  of  logging residues, except  for certain
 cavity dwelling  species.  The USFS  now observes a  policy  of leaving  a cer-
 tain number  of dead  trees  standing for these animals.  Complete residue
 removal would  eliminate  edge area  and, consequently, reduce species numbers
 and diversity.

 In the West,  aesthetics  will be  enhanced by partial  removal of logging
 residues.  Logged  sites  will have  a more orderly appearance.   Total utili-
 zation would  further enhance aesthetic values, but provides for the possi-
 bility of other  environmental injury.
                                    60

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Complete utilization is expected to have a minor effect on recreational
opportunities, by allowing for easier travel through cutover areas.  Human
health will not be significantly affected with residue recovery practices.

Research Needs - With an expected increase in the extraction residue re-
covery, research needs have been identified involving both the extent of
utilization and the expected environmental effects.  Consequently, future
research should address the level of utilization of biomass considered op-
timal and evaluate the ecological effects of alternatives in level of util-
ization.

Minimum Size and Quality Extension  (4.2)

Increased utilization of forest fiber can also be accomplished by using
the smaller trees removed during thinning practices for stocking control,
using smaller top diameters, and using the whole tree, including roots.

 Extensiveness - Use of minimum size and quality extension practices is
 especially applicable to the South's pine forest and to a lesser degree,
 in the North's forest systems.  In the West, use is less significant be-
 cause emphasis is primarily on old growth liquidations.  Industry that de-
 pends strongly on roundwood fiber  favors the utilization of smaller ma-
 terials.  Extensiveness of this practice, minimum size and quality exten-
 sion, was estimated to be moderate in 1976 and expected to increase to
 important levels by 1985 and major levels by 2010.

 Environmental Factors -  In terms of wood fiber, silviculture_productivity
 increases significantly with minimum size and quality extension utiliza-
 tion.  Not all forest species can  be managed for minimum size, but at least
 one  third of all southern pine may be managed for this.

 Removal  of the entire tree biomass results in complete soil baring and  in-
 creased  soil disturbances.  Significant  soil erosion losses and sediment
 loading  of receiving waters are expected in  some  forest areas, especially
 in  the hilly country of  the South.  Nutrients will be irretrievably lost
 in  the nutrient cycle with whole tree utilization.  Some soils will require
 replacement  of nitrogen,  phosphorus, and potassium before successful regen-
 eration  can  occur.

 Ecological Effect - Complete utilization will have adverse aquatic and
 terrestrial effects.  Turbidity increases  and the potential  for thermal
 pollution also increases.  Terrestrial systems will have decreased diver-
 sity in  both vegetation  and wildlife species.  Soil nutrient cycles may
 be  severely disrupted in some areas due  to extensive material  removal.
 Aquatic  and terrestrial  effects will be  limited to those regions  using
 this practice, primarily the South.

 Aesthetics are not expected to play an important  role with this practice
 because  this practice is important specifically,  in the South  where little
                                      61

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forest land is held in public ownership.   Recreation potential  will  be de-
creased since there will  be minimal  natural  cover on the land.   This prac-
tice is not expected to have significant human health effects.

Research Needs - Needs have been identified for research designed to
determine kinds, volumes, and sizes of material to be left on site to
aid in decreasing the pollution effects of extraction.

Species Use Enlargement (4.3)

Forest utilization is expanded under this practice to include tree species
once considered non-commercial, specifically hardwood species.   Techno-
logical developments have largely been responsible for the use of a
broader range of species.

Extensiveness - Species use enlargement will be most applicable in the
North and South forest regions, where many hardwood species exist.  Ap-
plication in the West will be limited since much of that forest land is
in desirable softwoods.

 By 2010, the U.S. will be consuming an estimated 12.2 billion ft3 of pulp
 wood compared to 4.4 billion ft3 in 1970.  Hardwoods will supply 37 per-
 cent of this volume, an increase from 28 percent in 1970.  To achieve this
 production level by 2010, it will be necessary not only to increase har-
 vest of desirable species, but also to use a broader range of species for
 harvest.  Since hardwood species tend to be small, poor in form and do not
 have the desired seasoning characteristics or dimensional stability, their
 use for lumber and plywood is not expected to greatly increase.

 Environmental Factors - Annual silviculture productivity will  increase sig-
 nificantly with the harvest of a broader range of tree species.  Addi-
 tionally, marketing of species that might otherwise be disposed of by
 mechanical or chemical means  tends to reduce cost for stand improvement
 and forest conversion.

 The type of harvest and logging methods used will determine the extent of
 soil disturbance and consequent soil loss.  As with other utilization prac-
 tices, total removal of all forest fiber bares the soil and increases the
 potential for surface runoff and soil losses.  Soil nutrient cycles will
 also be disrupted with whole tree utilization.  Other harvesting practices
 will allow residues to remain, and the resulting soil loss is expected to
 be less than for complete utilization.

 Ecological Effects - Ecological effects of species use enlargement will
 largely depend upon the harvest and logging practices used.  Aquatic eco-
 systems may  experience increased turbidity and possible thermal pollution
 with intense utilization of forest fiber.  Complete tree removal including
 roots results in loss of water retention capacities by the soil.   Less in-
 tense harvest and utilization practices will  cause less  soil disturbance
 and reduce the potential for adverse aquatic  effects.
                                      62

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The terrestrial ecosystem may experience loss of wildlife habitat and de-
creased species diversity with the elimination or reduction of a tree spec-
ies   Recreational opportunities will be adversely affected if complete
utilization of all tree species becomes a common practice.  Aesthetic values
are expected to also be adversely affected with this practice due to reduc-
tions in wooded vegetation.  Human health is not expected to be affected.

Research Needs - As discussed above, there is a need to determine the
pollution effects of alternative levels of utilization and ecological ef-
fects.

5.  Cutting System (5)

Cutting systems employ two basic management practices for forest harvest:
even-aged management and uneven-aged management.  Even-aged cutting prac-
tices are clearcutting, shelterwood cutting and seed tree cutting.   These
three cutting systems allow for the removal of mature tree stands and the
establishment of new stands, all of a single age class.  Single tree and
group cutting are uneven-age management practices.   This type of manage-
ment produces stands in which trees of various ages are intermingled.

While the cutting system trend was ranked ninth (out of 10 silviculture
trends) for environmental  implications by the Phase I evaluation work-
shop, one subtrend, clearcutting, has become a sensitive and controversial
issue with the public.  Thus, clearcutting has been included for detailed
analysis in this Phase II  study.  Other cutting system subtrends are ex-
cluded from this assessment.

Clearcutting  (5.1)

Clearcutting  is an even-aged forest reproduction practice in which all
trees are removed in the harvest area.  This area may then be regener-
ated by residual reproduction or by natural or artificial methods after
cutting.

Extensiveness  - Actual extensiveness of clearcutting in 1976 is not known,
but estimated  to be at important levels.   In the Douglas fir region, 39,500
acres of old  forest growth is harvested by clearcutting.  In the South,
clearcutting  is expected to increase as a result of shortened rotation
periods, 15 years for some species.  By 2010, extensiveness of clearcutting
is expected to reach major levels.  However, use of clearcutting may be
restricted on  some federal forest lands, and shelterwood cutting substi-
tuted as an even-age management practice.

Reducing clearcut area size and engineering the cut to conform to topo-
graphic features and to be less visible from principal viewing points
are expected  to be future  management practices with clearcutting.

Environmental  Factors - Clearcutting practices demonstrates high potential
for maximizing fiber yield in a number of  forest types, and provides the
best opportunity for establishment of new  stands.


                                     63

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Clearcuts have been responsible for large pollutant loadings in the en-
vironment.  The potential still exists for significant adverse impacts,
but precautionary measures can reduce these impacts.  However, soil loss
will still occur with large bared soil areas.  On fragile soils and on
steep terrain, indiscriminate use of clearcutting can cause mass wasting.

Clearcutting can be used to control water yield in the Rocky Mountains with
properly engineered path cuts that trap winter snows.  This will cause in-
creased spring runoffs.  Water yields are temporarily increased between the
time an area is cut and before vegetation is reestablished to take up
moisture.

Water temperature increases have also occurred with clearcuts.  More cur-
rent practices with clearcutting, leave the streams shaded to maintain
temperature stability.

Ecological Effects - Aquatic ecosystem may be adversely affected with in-
creased turbidity and thermal pollution.   With use of buffer zones and
careful management, adverse aquatic effects will  decrease in intensity
and may be relatively insignificant in some cut areas.

With clearcuts, wildlife habitat, food supplies and travel lanes are dis-
rupted.  Wildlife species that inhabited the uncut forest will be dis-
placed; and, with revegetation, a wider diversity of ground and bush-
dwelling species will appear.  Deer populations are expected to increase
significantly in some forest cut areas.

Recreational opportunities are adversely affected immediately following
clearcutting.  After revegetation, hunting, wildlife viewing, and berry
picking are enhanced.

Aesthetics are also adversely affected with clearcutting and subsequent
logging practices.  Removal of harvest residues,  careful clearcut site
planning, and other management are expected to reduce aesthetic effects
to some extent.  Human health is not expected to  be significantly affected
with this practice.

Research Needs - As indicated above, major disruptions can be expected
in the terrestrial systems.  Because of this, research is required not
only on the short term effects but also on the long term effects of
clearcutting.
                                     64

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                               SECTION III

                              RESEARCH NEEDS


Throughout this study many types of data and information were identified
and sought through secondary sources in order to complete the desired en-
vironmental assessments.  As was expected, the desired research data were
often meager and seldom adequate to quantitatively analyze the environ-
mental effects of a given trend or management practice in either agri-
culture or silviculture.  Consequently, and as incorporated in the study's
plan of work, qualitative value judgments of agricultural, silvicultural,
and environmental professionals were obtained and utilized.  Future studies
involving the environmental implications of agricultural-silviculture! acti-
vities can be expected to face similar data and information constraints.

As a guide to further data base development involving environmental re-
search, this section outlines the most pressing needs that were identifiable
throughout this study.  It should be recognized that many on-going public
and private research programs will contribute to these needs; however, the
diverse conditions that exist throughout agriculture and silviculture are
such that site specific experiments are difficult or impossible to general-
ize about.  Caution must be exercised, therefore, in assuming that research
conducted in limited geographic areas will necessarily yield data on en-
vironmental effects valid for other areas and conditions.

Agricultural and silvicultural environmentally-related research needs, as
viewed from the perspective of EPA's overall responsibility, might be cate-
gorized into four research areas as follows:

      1.  Production Efficiency Research
      2.  Pollution Measurement Research
      3.  Pollution Reduction Research
      4.  Ecological Impact Research

Production efficiency research would develop or assess the technology utilized
to improve production yields and efficiency, including pollution-related im-
pacts.  Pollution measurement would determine the actual types and quanti-
ties of pollution generated in various production processes.  Pollution re-
duction research would develop or assess alternative methods to reduce the
generation of pollution.  And, ecological impact research would quantify
ecological and other environmental impacts.  (A fifth area, extensiveness
research, would determine the extent to which pollutant-generating resources,
production practices, or developments are being utilized, but such research
is generally considered outside of EPA's primary responsibility.)
                                      65

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The following discussion of specific research needs is presented first for
the agriculture sector and then for the silviculture sector.  Also, within
each sector, the research needs are identified according to the four research
categories as defined above.   These needs reflect the broad range of research
that will be required to comprehensively assess the environmental implica-
tions of trends in agriculture and silviculture.   However, other and more'
specific research needs can be readily perceived  within the framework shown;
thus, the research needs presented are intended principally as a guide in
research planning.  Various institutions, not just EPA, have either an ex-
plicit or an implicit responsibility to foster research in the various desig-
nated categories.

Importantly, one should note that the research need categories are not
mutually exclusive.  Such matters as research into the environmental effects
of varying tillage practices will, for instance,  also involve research into
their differing nutrient and pesticide requirements and their consequent
environmental effects.  When one recognizes the interrelationships that
exist among all the agricultural subsector trend  practices and their environ-
mental effects, one recognizes, also, the conceptual impossibility of
definitively ranking on the basis of need, all of the research possibilities
identified in this study.  Finally, the listing of research needs is not
exhaustive.  The study sought to identify those that offer promise; thus,
in some instances, research needs were not identified in all need categories
for all trend practices.


                  A.  Agriculture Sector Research Needs


Based on this study's findings, the most needed environmentally-related re-
search topics in agriculture are as summarized in Exhibit III-l below.  These
research needs are categorized by subsector/trend (see Exhibit rows) within
agriculture and by the research categories (see Exhibit columns) as were
defined above.

The following discussion incorporates not only the trends as have been
assessed in this Phase II document, but also selected additional trends
from the Phase I (Volume I) analysis for which comparable research needs
exist.

Production Efficiency Research Needs

Improved production efficiency is an indirect means of achieving environ-
mental quality production and enhancement.  That  is, technological and
other developments that increase agricultural production efficiency have
often required lower rates of resource use, e.g., land or fertilizer, in
order to meet specified yield goals.  Hence, the  environmental effects are
favorable, especially in relative terms in the U.S., where substantially
more pollutants would have been generated if production efficiency im-
provements had not been realized.  Such, for instance, is a frequent effect
of the work of the U. S. Department of Agriculture.  The Department, as is
                                     66

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                            Exhibit III-l.   Summary of agriculture sector research needs by trend and research category
                                                                                                                  Page 1
     Agriculture
   Subsector/Trend
   Production Efficiency
      Research Needs
   Pollution Measurement
      Research Needs
    Pollution Reduction
      Research Needs
      Ecological  Impact
      Research Needs
CROP PRODUCTION SUBSECTOR

Soil and Water Manage-
  ment (Runoff and
  Erosion Control)
(Conservation
  Tillage)
 (Wind Erosion
  Control)
 (Improved Water
  Application)
 (Improved Seeds
  and Plants)
(Using Soil-Plant
  Analysis)
Develop more efficient
farm implements.

Determine optimum use of
fertilizers and pesticides
with narrow rows.

Develop alternatives to the
use of toxic pesticides,
e.g., paraquat.

Determine optimum fertili-
zer and pesticide use
under no-till and reduced
till practices.

Determine the optimum
amount of residue to be
left on the soil under
conservation tillage.
Determine the feasibility
of diverting return flows
for other productive uses,
e.g., wildlife preserves.

Investigate the use of
effluents in sprinkler
irrigation.
Improve  irrigation systems
and scheduling.

Develop  more resistant
seeds and plants to in-
clude weather, salt, in-
sect, and neamtode.
Develop  seeds and plants
to increase crop yields.

Develop  more efficient
techniques in soil plant
analysis to enhance pro-
ductivity.
Determine losses from con-
trol measures under vary-
ing conditions; e.g., soil
and application rates.
Determine pesticide losses
under reduced tillage.
Determine wind erosion
losses under strip-crop-
ping barrier rows and
free wind breaks.

Determine quality of re-
turn flows under varying
conditions.
Determine effectiveness
of contouring and other
soil erosion measures.

Investigate the feasibil-
ity of producing additional
crops In narrow rows.
Determine effectlvenebi of
alternative reduced tillage
methods in reducing pollu-
tant losses, e.g., nutri-
ents, pesticides, sediment.
                                                                Develop  more  efficient
                                                                systemsin wind  erosion
                                                                control.
Determine the feasibility
of water renovation through
filtering and desalting.

Determine practicable al-
ternatives for treatment
and disposal  of tall water.
                                Develop seeds and plants
                                resistant to pests re-
                                quiring chemical  treat-
                                ment.
Determine the effects of
pesticides on human health.

Determine the optimum main-
tenance management of ter-
races and grass waterways
for wildlife habitat.
Determine ecological effects
of Increased pesticide use
under conservation tillage.
Determine effects of salinity
on human health and animal
populations.

Determine effects of Irriga-
tion practices on ground
water depletion.
                                Include environmental
                                assessments  as a part  of
                                research undertaken in
                                seeds ana plants improve-
                                ment.
                                                                Evaluate  ecological  effects
                                                                associated  with  the  use  of
                                                                soil-plant  analysis.
                                                                         Continued .  .  .

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                                                                        Exhibit. III-l (Continued)
                                                                                                                                             Page 2
                Agriculture
              Subsector/Trend
                              Production  Efficiency
                                 Research Needs
                                   Pollution Measurement
                                      Re;earch  Needs
                                    Pollution  Reduction
                                      Research Needs
     Ecological  Impact
      Research Needs
en
CD
           CROP PRODUCTION SUB-
             SECTOR  (Con'd)

           Nutrient Manage-
             ment (Methods of
             Nutrient Applica-
             tion)
            (Development of  Im-
             proved Fertilizers)
(Development of
  Nitrogen-Fixation
  Sources)
           Pesticide Manage-
             ment (Pesticide
             Application
             Methods)
            (Development of  New
             Biological and
             Chemical Pesticides)
            (Scouting and  In-
             tegrated Controls)
                           Develop more  effective
                           methods of nutrient
                           application.
                           Develop more efficient
                           fertilizers.
Develop sources, both
legumes and non-1egumest
for biological nitrogen-
fixation.

Develop more efficient
means of pesticide appli-
cation including aerial
application and dual
application of fertili-
zers and pesticides.

Develop more effective
chemical and biological
pesticides.

Develop the effective use
of pred'.tors and para-
sites for biological
pest control.

Develop more effective In-
tegrated control systems.

Develop effective surface
and remote sensing scouting
programs to enhance pro-
duction.
                                Compare nutrient losses
                                under varying methods  of
                                application.
Determine extent of ni-
trate leaching from
nitrogen-fixation
sources.

Determine extent of pes-
ticide loss In aerial
application.
                                                                Develop fertilizers designed
                                                                to reduce pollution effect,
                                                                e.g., micro-encapsulation.
                                                                                          Develop means of reducing
                                                                                          drift In aerial applica-
                                                                                          tion.
                                                                                          Develop biodegradable
                                                                                          pesticides.
                                                                                          Develop Integrated control
                                                                                          systems designed to reduce
                                                                                          chemical use.
                                                               Determine environmental Im-
                                                               plication of developments
                                                               in application techniques as
                                                               they  are developed.

                                                               Determine long term effects
                                                               of leaching of other  ions
                                                               with  nitrogen and movement
                                                               of Ions down into the  soil
                                                               profile.
                                                               Determine regional implica-
                                                               tions of fall application.
Assess differences 1n eco-
logical effects of alter-
native methods of pesticide
application.
                                                                Determine ecological  effects
                                                                of newly  developed  pes-
                                                                ticides,  including  effects
                                                                of agents on non-target
                                                                organisms and their effects
                                                                after the prey has  been
                                                                eradicated.

                                                                Include ecological  assess-
                                                                ments as  part of ongoing
                                                                research  Involving  Integrated
                                                                system.
                                                                                                                                             Continued .  .  .

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                                                                        ExhlMt III-l  (Continued)
                                                                                                                Page 3
                Agriculture
              Subsector/Trend
   Production Efficiency
      Research Needs
   Pollution Measurement
      itesearch Needs
    Pollution Reduction
      Research Needs
     Ecological Impact
      Research Needs
CTi
           FEEDLOT PRODUCTION
             SUBSECTOR'

           Residual Disposal
             Management
           Improving Feed
             Efficiency
           RANGE AND PASTURE
             MANAGEMENT SUB-
             SECTOR

           Grazing Management
           Increase Forage
             Quality and
             Quantity

           Range and Pasture
             Renovation
Determine economic feas-
ibility of utilizing feed-
lot waste in crop pro-
duction.

Assess the efficiency and
feasibility of recycling
wastes in feeding rations.

Develop means of .enhancing1
the nutritive value of
roughage and other fiber
content of feed.

Develop more effective
means of utilizing non-
conventional feedstuff
and animal wastes in
feeding.
Develop more effective
grazing systems utilizing
innovations such as com-
plementary forage seedlngs.

Develop means of increas-
ing the quality and
quantity of forage.

Develop more efficient
renovation systems.
Determine nutrient losses
resulting from application
of manure at disposal  rates.
Determine nutrient losses
from newly developed feed
rations.
Evaluate ration rotation
as a means of reducing the
potential build-up of copper,
arsenic, and sodium derived
from feed rations.
Determine nutrient and
sediment losses under the
various specialized systems.
Determine pollution effects
of newly developed renova-
tion systems.
Determine effects of high
sodium content In rations
on soil defloculation.

Determine long term effects
of nitrates and other nu-
trients 1n groundwater.
                                Determine ecological  effects
                                of complementary forage
                                seedings.
                                Determine ecological  effects
                                of Introducing new species
                                into ranges.

                                Determine long term ecolog-
                                ical effects  of the various
                                renovation systems(chemical,
                                mechanical, and prescribed
                                burning).

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generally recognized, is a principal  source of production efficiency im-
provements for agriculture, and a consequence of those improvements is
often improved environmental effects.   Too, agribusiness conducts much
independent research and, consequently, fosters environmental  beneficial
production efficiency improvements.

Even though production efficiency improvements generally have  only indirect
environmental implications and may not, therefore, be of primary concern to
EPA, the future environment of the nation will be strongly influenced by
such improvements.  As a minimum within a comprehensive research frame-
work, the monitoring of emerging and  prospective production efficiency
improvements is a vital research task.

Crop Production - Soil and Hater Management.   As is first shown under the
production efficiency research needs  column in Exhibit III-l,  several re-
search topics are classified primarily as soil and water management related.
For example, the use of narrow rows,  an increasing trend practice, is be-
lieved beneficial in stabilizing the  soil, and, in many cases, this practice
improves production efficiency per unit of land cultivated without corre-
sponding increases in fertilizer use.   Thus,  either the same output may be
produced with less environmental pollution, or more likely, greater output
can be obtained without a significant change  in associated environmental ef-
fects.  The production efficiency aspects of  the subtrend need to be more
fully assessed.  More specific research is required in the determination of
the optimal rates of application of pesticides and fertilizers.  Also, the
adaptibility of narrow rows in the production of crops other than corn and
soybeans needs to be more fully investigated.

Within the crop production subsector,  improved water applications result in
production efficiencies which should  be fostered not only because of ef-
ficiency gains, but because of their  favorable environmental implications.
Improved methods of water application,  improved scheduling procedures, and
the use of new sources of water, e.g.,  waste  water effluent, are specific
areas needing research.

In the past, much research has been focused on the development of higher
yielding crop seeds and plants.  While this research should be continued,
increased genetic research is also warranted  to improve the resistance of
plants to factors such as weather, insects and diseases.  Such developments
will potentially reduce future potential pesticide pollution problems.

Crop Production - Nutrient Management.   Further research related to nutrient
management will likely result in production efficiency improvements and an
aggregate beneficial environmental effect.  In particular, developments can
be expected involving the form in which fertilizer is applied, the timing
and frequency of application, and the type of applications used.  In the
past, fertilizer technology has contributed significantly to the increasing
crop yields experienced in U.S. agriculture.   The rising costs in fertilizer
production have brought into focus the necessity for continued research in
this area.  Specifically, research needs to be undertaken to develop more
efficient means of application and more effective forms, such  as micro-
encapsulation.  Closely related to the needs involving timing  and frequency

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of application is the need for the development of more effective means of
conducting soil-plant analysis.  Only a minor portion of the total crop
acreage is currently covered by soil-piant analysis.  Improved techniques,
plus a greater emphasis on implementation of such techniques by the research
and agribusiness community, would stimulate the needed expansion in the ac-
reage covered.

Crop Production - Pesticide Management.  Pest management technology has been
one of the major determinants of the high productivity of U.S. agriculture
with toxic chemicals providing the basis for contemporary practices.   Public
concern about these chemicals has led to more stringent regulations and, in
some cases, a prohibition of specific chemicals.  These restrictions  have re-
sulted in a greater reliance on certain compounds and, also, the substitution
of less effective alternatives.  Consequently, the need for additional  re-
search is readily apparent.  The breadth of recent and ongoing research is
reflected in the subtrends reviewed in this study.  Emerging chemical  develop-
ments include microencapsulated systems, surfactants and biodegradable pesti-
cides.  In the biological field, the subtrends covered developments in juve-
nile hormones, pheromones, sterile males, and predators.  Although consider-
able progress has been made in such research, most of these remain largely in
the experimental stage with recognized research requirements.  The use of
predators and parasites in biological pest control shows a great deal  of
promise; however, additional research is needed before these controls  can
be used on a large scale.  Research is needed to identify and develop  other
biological and chemical agents which will provide more effective control of
pests.  Furthermore, increased research is needed to develop integrated pest
management controls, i.e., chemical, biological and mechanical combinations
to meet specific pest problems.

Too frequently pesticides have been applied as a matter of prevention  of
potential  threats, thus contributing to a high level of use.  More efficient
use depends on identification of real threats.  Consequently, research needs
to be accelerated in the area of sensing in order to develop effective sur-
face and remote-sensing scouting programs for the detection of pest problems.

Pest management research is needed in conjunction with other crop management
trends, namely, trends in reduced till and no-till practices which are ex-
pected to be utilized substantially more in the future.   Because of improved
water conservation and reduced runoff and erosion, increased production ef-
ficiency has occurred.   On the negative side, however, greater weed and in-
sect problems generally occur; thus, greater chemical  pesticide  use  and its
consequent potential pesticide residue problems are common.  This particular
trend should be monitored for its production efficiency implications,  and
it should be more carefully researched in terms of its direct pesticide use
implications.

Feedlot Production.   Production efficiency improvements in livestock  feeding
have both direct and indirect environmental benefits.   First, on a per pound
of gain basis, less direct wastes are generated, i.e., a higher percentage of
the feeding ration is converted to useable end products.  Second, because
less grain and roughage are needed to finish feedlot livestock to a speci-
fied grade, less feed need be produced to obtain a given total yield;  thus,

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an indirect and favorable relative environmental effect will result.  Over
time, feeding efficiency improvements, e.g., in the order of 15 to 20% per
pound of gain, could have a significantly large macro-level effect on the
nation's environment.  Hence, additional research to further enhance feeding
efficiency improvements is warranted.

Pollution Measurement Research Needs

An initial step in the assessment of the environmental  implications of agri-
cultural trends was the identification of major pollutants generated by
various practices and developments.   As pointed out above, the research data
required for an effective quantitative analysis was, in most cases, inade-
quate.  Although extensive research  has been done in the identification and
measurement of pollution from non-point sources, it has generally been oriented
towards specific pollutants under controlled run-off conditions.   Thus, be-
cause the pollution effects caused by specific practices have not been docu-
mented to the extent that realistic  future projections  of effects can be made,
the environmental impacts of expected changes in practices cannot be ac-
curately determined on a quantitative basis.

However, models have been and are being developed with  the objective of
simulating pollution levels in water basins under varying production-
related conditions.  Most often, such models seek to estimate pollutant
load changes into streams as a function of management practices.   Also,
some models seek to estimate instream water quality conditions given alter-
native management practices.  These  models have usually been inadequately
developed to complete either regional or national assessments, and further
pollution measurement research of this type is needed to obtain useful esti-
mates of the levels of non-point sources of pollution.   Additionally, the
simulation models should be developed to incorporate and, yet, distinguish
each of the subsectors of agriculture so that the relative environmental
significance of each can be more accurately determined  and assessed.

Crop Production - Soil and Water Management.  Trends in soil and water manage-
ment practices indicate that significant environmental  effects will likely
occur.  For example, substantial increases in no-till and reduced-till cul-
ture practices are expected.  Such practices, predicted to reduce runoff
will, also, increase pesticide use to control weeds, insects and diseases.
Improved pollution measurement research is, then, needed to determine the
nutrient and chemical losses for alternative tillage practices and soil
conditions.  The net environmental effects of reduced-tillage practices
were judged to be beneficial by this study's workshop,  yet improved pollu-
tion measurement is needed to verify this judgement.

Within major irrigated crop production regions, a major and growing problem
is the increasing salinity of irrigation return flows.   Better measurements
of the existing pollution effects of these return flows are needed, and,
perhaps more critically, the future  environmental effects of high salinity
return flows should be predicted as  a guide to the severity of their future
potential effects.
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Crop Production - Nutrient Management.  In nutrient management, numerous de-
velopments in application methods and fertilizer formulations have occurred
in the past and are expected to continue in the future.  Measurement tech-
niques need to be designed to measure the nutrient losses expected from each
of these developments.  This would facilitate the identification of feasible
alternatives for use in pollution control.

Range and Pasture Management and Feedlot Production.  Numerous studies have
been conducted regarding pollution associated with the range and pasture
management and the feedlot production subsectors.  However, there is an
inadequate quantitative basis on which estimates of this pollution can be
made for the various practices and variety of conditions.  Consequently, the
need for improved pollution measurement is apparent in these two subsectors.

Pollution Reduction Research Needs

A major step in this study's assessment of trends was its identification of
current and potential practices which impinge upon environmental concerns.
One of the objectives of this step was to assist EPA in its efforts to
identify feasible technologies for the prevention and control of adverse
environmental effects.  In this study, many of the trends assessed were
found to have both a pollution reduction effect and an improved production
efficiency effect (i.e., runoff and erosion control practices, conservation
tillage, and improved nutrient application).  Continued research to develop
similar dual-benefit practices is desired.  In the future, however, stringent
pollution reduction practices may be required without associated production
efficiency benefits.  Such practices, although not among the leading trends
assessed, should be realistically included in research programs.

Crop Production - Soil and Water Management.  Soil management practices such
as contouring, narrow-row cropping, and reduced-till or no-till cultural
practices for varied crops should be researched to indicate their potential
and relative levels of nutrient, chemical, and sediment run-off and subse-
quent environmental effects.  Research needs are important, also, in water
management.  Practicable alternatives for the treatment and disposal of
irrigation return-flow, water need to be identified.  With the increasingly
apparent potential for the depletion of ground water in the West, research
is needed to measure the impact of irrigation on depletion levels and to
assess the beneficial effects on water renovation of filtering and de-
salting techniques.

Crop Production - Nutrient Management.  Of principal consideration in
nutrient management trend effects should be extended research into the
feasibility of developing fertilizers that are designed to reduce pollu-
tion effects.  More attention should be given to developing the qualita-
tive (vs. quantitative) attributes of nutrients as their aggregate environ-
mental effects become more serious.

Crop Production - Pesticide Management.  Leading research needs directed
toward the reduction of pesticide pollution include efforts to improve
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aerial application techniques and formlations "non-drift" to develop
biodegradable pesticides,  and to design integrated control  systems to
reduce chemical  use.

Feedlot Production -  Residual Disposal  Management.  Research should be
directed toward  reducing the concentrations of copper, arsenic, and sodium
stemming from feedlot rations since the use of feedlot manure in land ap-
plications results in the  environmentally adverse runoff of such chemicals.

Ecological Impact Research Needs

Ideally, agriculture's ecological impacts should be assessed holistically
with detailed quantitative estimates made regarding such receptor charac-
teristics as assimilative  capacities, organisms present, and end-uses.
The lack of data and  understanding of the relationships among agricultural
practices precludes such a quantitative evaluation; consequently, this
study's assessment was based largely on professional  judgements focusing
on each individual trend.   While the ultimate ecological impact of the
agricultural production system is the result of the effects of the accumu-
lation of practices,  many  of the trends can be examined relatively inde-
pendent of other practices.

Crop Production  - Soil and Water Management.  A number of research needs
were identified  in soil and water management.  The most apparent involve
the determination of  the ecological effects of the increased pesticide use
attendant upon the expanding utilization of no-till and reduced tillage.
While run-off nutrient loss will be significantly reduced under these prac-
tices, pesticide use  is expected to be increased substantially.  The iden-
tification of the effects  of this increase is one of the most pressing needs
in the agriculture sector.  Other needs in soil and water management con-
cern the determination of  the effects of maintenance management of ter-
races and grass  waterways  for wildlife habitat and of the effects of
salinity on human health (in irrigated regions) and animal  populations.

Crop Production  - Nutrient Management.   Ecological effect research is
needed to determine the long-term effects of leaching of nitrogen with
other ions into  the soil profile.  New fertilizer technology is expected
to be developed, particularly in formulations, e.g., microencapsulation
and biological inhibitors  of nutrification, and their effects should be
assessed.

Crop Production  - Pesticide Management.  Research should continue on the
effects of pesticides on human health, especially that investigating such
effects when pesticides are properly used.  As new pesticides are de-
veloped, ecological effect research should assess their use, and attention
should be directed toward  the effects of agents on non-target organisms,
particularly those involving predators and parasites.

Feedlot Production -  Residual Disposal  Management.  Ecological effects re-
search should determine the results of the land application of feedlot
wastes.  Of most need are  documentations of the effects of high sodium
deflocculation and of the  long-term effects of nitrate leaching.

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Range and Pasture Management.  Research needs are most apparent in two par-
ticular areas:  the ecological effects of chemicals used for land renova-
tion and the effects consequent to the introduction of new forage species.


                 B.  Silviculture Sector Research Needs


Exhibit III-2 presents the research needs most germane to silviculture.
These needs are categorized as were those for this study's agriculture
sector.

Production Efficiency Research Needs

Silviculture production efficiency has resulted from a greater use of modern
equipment, a better utilization of timber, more intensive management, and
improved technology in timber growing.  These developments, many having both
beneficial and adverse environmental effects have promoted a better balance
between timber production and environmental protection.  However, since much
of the technology associated with the use of modern equipment has worked to
the detriment of the environment, EPA should initiate research which would
monitor the environmental effects of production efficiency improvements.
(This study recognizes, of course, the responsibility of the U.S. Forest
Service in this area.)

Research needs related to increased production efficiency have been identi-
fied in three management areas:  harvest management, stand control and
damage control.

Harvest Management.  Silviculture productivity has been improved through an
increasing utilization of the total biomass, principally in the South where
the utilization of roots, branches, and foliage from the younger timber,
relatively free of defects, has been profitable.  Research should determine
the-optimum level of such utilization which would reflect both its long-
term economic benefit and its associated environmental damages.

Stand Control Management.  Silviculture production utilizes the early re-
establishment of timber species, and the extensive use of mechanical equip-
ment during site preparation, especially in the South, to further such
reestablishment.  Prompt reestablishment is desirable, but some techniques
have frequently proved to be environmentally disruptive.  Research should
determine the optimal balance between the requirements of species regen-
eration and environmental need.

Damage Control Management.  A significant need for ecological effects re-
search within the damage control management area recognizes the potential
impact consequent to uncontrolled fires.  A need is apparent to develop
effective means of identifying fire danger, of predicting fire behavior,
and of determining corrective actions which will have the least disruptive
ecological effects.
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                                               Exhibit III-2.  Summary of silviculture lector research  needs  by  trend and research category
Silviculture
anagMont Area/Trend
HARVEST MANAGEMENT
Access
Production Efficiency
Research Needs

Pollution Measurement
Research Needs

Pollution Reduction
Research Needs
Determine minimum road
Ecological Impact
Research Needs
Determine relative effects of
                                                                                                   standards  (cut,  fill,  bed
                                                                                                   width,  ballast)  compatible
                                                                                                   with  road  use  needs.

                                                                                                   Develop equipment  designed
                                                                                                   to  minimize  soil disturbance.
                                                                                          minimum road standards versus
                                                                                          those in practice today.

                                                                                          Determine effects on site quality
                                                                                          of roads abandoned to revert to
                                                                                          forest after use.
                      Extraction
                                                                                                   Determine  needs  by  region of
                                                                                                   equipment  innovations  that
                                                                                                   can  accomplish  harvest at
                                                                                                   minimum environmental  costs
                                                                                                   consistent with  economic
                                                                                                   considerations.

                                                                                                   Determine  methods of reducing
                                                                                                   pollution  (soil  disturbance,
                                                                                                   detachment, and  transport)
                                                                                                   for  new logging  equipment
CTi
                     Utilization          Determine optimum level of
                                          utilization of biomass 1n
                                          commercial forests and
                                          means of projecting en-
                                          vironmental effects under
                                          varying cutting levels.
                               Determine  sedineit  load-
                               ings in streeitr  from
                               various levels  of bio-
                               mass utilization.
                          Determine  kinds,  volumes, and
                          sizes  of material  that  should
                          be left on site  to aid  in con-
                          trolling pollution resulting
                          from varying  levels of  utili-
                          zation.
                                  Determine  effects  of  alternatives
                                  in level of utilization  of biomass
                                  on the  aquatic  and terrestrial
                                  systems.

                                  Determine  effects  of  Increasing
                                  utilization on  nutrients 1n the
                                  ecosystem.
                   STAND CONTROL

                     Site Preparation
Determine minimum amount
of site preparation re-
quired to meet require-
ments for establishing
regeneration.
Determine level  of
pesticide residues In
media from chemical
treatments in site
preparation.
Determine method or combina-
tion of methods most effi-
cient or suitable for en-
vironmental conditions.

Determine the extent of re-
duction of environmental
damages possible by alter-
native methods or combination
of methods.

Determine which equipment
results In least pollution
effect and which causes the
most.
Determine the ecological effects
of herbicides used 1n site prepa-
ration; i.e., reaction of soil
biomass to chemicals, volatiza-
tion of chemicals in atmosphere.

Determine long term ecological
effects of extensive drainage
and phosphate loadings 1n pre-
paring swamps for planting pine
in Southeast.
                    DAMAGE CONTROL

                      Fire Control
                                          Develop more effective
                                          means of identifying
                                          fire danger and deter-
                                          mining fire behavior.
                    CUTTING  SYSTEMS
                      Clear  Cutting
                                                                                           Evaluate long term effects of
                                                                                           clear cutting effects on ter-
                                                                                           restrial systems.

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Pollution Measurement Research Needs
                n  nuren   osses w    vary  y     erng  eves o
              have correspondingly differing environmental effects
              ct on        -
      n  w     ave corresponingly differing environmental ef
potential effect on the eco-system of stream sediment loading
search necessar  to m
 oena  eect on the eco-system of stream sediment loading m
search necessary to measure such loading for the various levels
utilization.
                                                                   biomass
Stand Control Management.  Chemical site preparation treatment may be pre-
ferred at times to mechanical treatment because it offers less soil dis-
turbance, a minimum alteration of surface water mechanics, and much less
disruption of the nutrient cycles.  Some chemicals are usually applied only
once in a 30 to 100 year rotation, pesticide effects are generally expected
to be minimal; however, to determine the long-term effects of pesticide
applications, research should determine the level of pesticide residues in
the media resulting from chemical treatment associated with site preparation.

Pollution Reduction Research Needs

A primary concern of EPA is the  identification of economically feasible and
socially acceptable alternatives in silviculture which will help prevent and
control adverse environmental effects.  Research in this area is very closely
related to that of production efficiency, since, in many cases, reductions
in pollution result directly from increases in efficiency.  Specific needs
in this category have been identified in two silvicultural management areas.

Harvest Management.  Environmental effects research needs are apparent for
both extraction and utilization  practices.  Innovations in extracting equip-
ment technology have frequently  been developed at the expense of the environ-
ment; consequently, research is  needed to design equipment, particularly
logging equipment, that will minimize environmental damages.  Such research
should address regional requirements since these may vary substantially among
regions.  Research is needed, also, to determine the optimum levels of ma-
terials utilization (i.e., kinds, volumes, and sizes) in order to minimize
the adverse environmental effects of such utilization practices.  An addi-
tional research need should focus on developing minimum access road standards
reflective of industry needs and environmental requirements.

Stand Control Management.  Research is needed to ascertain which of the
methods or combination of methods — mechanical, chemical or burning —
causes the least short-term and  long-term environmental damages.  Each
method has both advantages and disadvantages in economic efficiency and
environmental effects.  The extent of damages associated with each of the
alternatives should also be determined to facilitate the development of
controls to reduce the pollution effects of site preparation.  Such re-
search should determine the equipment that would have the least environ-
mental impact.
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Ecological Impact Research Needs

An ecological  assessment of trends in silviculture was an important objec-
tive of the study and was largely based on research literature.  On the
whole, the literature did reflect a broad and effective coverage of silvi-
culture's ecological  effects.   However, several  research needs were apparent,

Harvest Management.  Ecological  impact research  is needed regarding both
access and utilization practices.  As discussed  above, road standards need
to be modified to reduce associated adverse effects and research should be
conducted to determine their ecological effects.  The increasing trend
towards greater utilization of the total  biomass reflects significant im-
provement in production efficiency (primarily in the East); however, the
effects of sedimentation, turbidity, and  thermal pollution resulting from
these practices are largely unknown.  Research should, then, address the
ecological effects of utilization practices and  should examine their ef-
fects under different levels of intensity.  An additional and important re-
search need is one that would  determine the ecological effects consequent
to industry's abandonment of forest access roads in harvested areas.  Spec-
ifically, research should determine the characteristic of the subsequent
erosion and its ecological effect.

Stand Control  Management.  Two site preparations research needs were iden-
tified.  As indicated previously, the levels of  pesticide residues re-
sulting from chemical treatment are not widely known.   As these levels be-
come established, research should continue on their ecological effects and
should include an examination  of the reaction of the soil biomass to chem-
icals and of the volitalization of chemicals in  the atmosphere.  Secondly,
research is needed to determine the long-term effects of extensive drainage
and phosphate loadings, resulting from the preparation of wetlands for
tree planting, e.g.,  for planting pine forests in the Southeast.

Cutting Systems Management.  Ecological effects  research is needed to
determine both the short and long-term effects of clear cutting systems
and selective cutting systems.  A belief  of this study's silviculture-
panel was that important differences exist among and within regions in
terms of soil  types,  topography, climatic conditions, type of timber,
and other factors which affect the optimal cutting system for a given
location.  Both short and long-term ecological effects need to be assessed
since logging and reforestation practices will differ for each type of
cutting system.
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                                SECTION IV

                              POLICY  ISSUES


One objective of this study was to identify policy issues associated with
the environmental implications of trends in agriculture and silviculture.
This section identifies those policy  issues germane to the trends and sub-
trends as presented in both Phase I (Volume I) and Phase II of this study.
These policy issues are the Contractor's assessment of prospective issues;
they do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency  (EPA).  The specific policy alternatives described are only
suggestive of options which might be  implemented to forward policy goals.

EPA has broad authority to establish  controls for nonpoint sources (NPS) of
pollution in both agriculture and silviculture.  For example, Section 208
of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act. (P.L. 92-500) requires that
state and local regulatory and other  programs be developed to control NPS
water pollution.  Plans developed pursuant to Section 208 must set forth
procedures and methods to control, to the extent feasible, the nonpoint
sources of pollution.  Furthermore, Section 208 programs are to be imple-
mented in concert with Section 201(c) which further requires that, to the
extent practicable, waste treatment management shall  provide control  or
treatment of all point and nonpoint pollutants.

Within such a legal basis (and others, i.e., the National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System and the irrigated  return flows regulations) for estab-
lishing regulatory and other programs, it is pertinent to consider—given an
understanding of trends and probable  developments in agriculture and silvi-
culture—an array of potential controls which may emerge in view of pending
legislative requirements to EPA regarding effective NPS pollution control.

Generally speaking, agriculture's and silviculture's nonpoint sources of
pollution are subject to

      (1)  the control or treatment of wastes generated by production
           systems,
      (2)  the control of polluting inputs (including land), and
      (3)  the control of management  practices to reduce pollutants
           generated.

Policy issues arise, then, as a direct consequence of considering public
(vs. private) measures to influence any or all of these control approaches.
Relevant policy issues are, that is,  inherent in these fundamental ques-
tions:   "What control or treatment of wastes should be imposed on agri-
culture and silviculture production systems?"  "What controls should be

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placed on the use of polluting inputs, including land?"  "What controls
should be placed on the utilization of management practices?"

Many policy-related instruments may implement an NPS control  plan:   for
example, Regulation, Education, Economic Incentives, and Public Invest-
ments.  However, this study's analysis seeks not to identify specific
implementation alternatives; rather, the study identifies only the  policy
areas in which issues may emerge in agriculture and silviculture as a re-
sult of the environmental implications analyzed in this study.  Further
analyses are needed in order to determine whether effective and practica-
ble policy instruments could be developed and implemented.


                  A.  Agriculture Sector Policy Issues


Within the agriculture sector, as with other nonpoint sources of pollution,
it is difficult to maintain effective, practicable controls over wastes from
disperse production locations; consequently, relatively more attention has
been given either to the control of polluting inputs or to  the control of
management practices to reduce pollutants.  This study, also, focuses atten-
tion on policy issues associated with the latter two forms  of control.

Exhibit IV-1 summarizes the agricultural subsectors1 (Exhibit column 1) po-
tential policy issues (Exhibit rows) as categorized by types  of control
(Exhibit columns 3, 4, 5).  This summary pertains explicitly to the poten-
tial controls which are directly linked to the major environmentally-related
trends of this study—either Phase I or Phase II.  Additional policy issues
outside of the scope of this study are not assessed even though such policies
may have consequential environmental implications.  For instance, above-
normal export demand, though not within the scope of this study, can be a
consequential determinant of the impact of production systems.  An  unusually
high and prolonged export demand can result in a dramatic increase  in land,
nutrient, and pesticide use great enough to cause measurable effects on the
environment.  A definitive survey of policy issues would, of course, con-
sider such relationships.

The following descriptions of policy issues, as outlined in Exhibit IV-1,
contain both a brief summary of pollution problems inherent in particular
subsectors of agriculture and an explanation of their prospective policy-
related NPS control issues/problems.  The policy issues are categorized by
(1) control of wastes, (2) control of inputs, and (3) control of management
practices.

Crop Production Subsector - Soil and Water Management

Water runoff and its associated soil erosion are the main contributors to
agriculture's NPS pollution.  Soil is transported by the runoff and is it-
self (as sediment) a pollutant causing turbidity and deposition problems
in water channels and receptors.  Additionally, such sediment is a  carrier
of attached pollutants:  nutrients (especially phosphates), pesticides,
and soil minerals.  Soluble materials, such as nutrients (especially

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                       Exhibit IV-1.   Summary of agriculture sector oolicy issues by management function and basic policy area
             Agriculture Subsector/
             Management Function
                                                                                       Basic Policy Area
    Control  of Wastes
     Control of Inputs
                                                                   Control  of  Management
                                                                         Practices
   Crop Production Subsector

     Soil and water management
      Nutrient  management
                                                                  A.  AGRICULTURE SECTOR
Sediment, salinity, nu-
trients, pesticide res-
idues, crop residues
Nutrients
Land use, water resource
use
Fertilizer resource use;
development of improved
fertilizer; development
biological nitrogen-
fixation sources
Runoff and erosion control;
conservation tillage; im-
proved water application;
wind erosion control; crop
sequencing

Soil-plant analysis; methods
of nutrient application;
other
co
      Pesticide  management
Pesticide residues
Pesticide resource use;
development of new bio-
logical and chemical
pesticides; improvement
of seeds and plants
Scouting and integrated con-
trols; improvement of pes-
ticide application methods
and timing; other
    Feedlot Production Subsector \j
      Residual  disposal  management
        (off-site)


    Range and Pasture Management Subsector jl/

      Grazing management
      Renovations and improvements
Organic material,
nitrates, micro-
organisms
Sediment, nutrients,
organic material,
microorganisms

Sediment, nutrients,
pesticides
 Land use, off-site dis-
 posal  limitations, feed-
 lot size
 Land use
 Land use, fertilizer and
 pesticide resource use,
 equipment use, controlled
 fire use
Alternative residual dis-
posal ; feedlot size
Grazing practices and stock-
ing rates
Range and pasture renova-
tion; range and pasture im-
provements; using increased
resources; other
    I/  Within the feedlot and range and pasture  subsectors, management areas are not all inclusive.  Only the most environmentally significant
       areas, and with feedlot production,  only  management areas directly related to non-point source control are considered.

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nitrates), pesticides, and saline minerals,  and suspended materials, such
as crop residues, are also transported in water runoff.   The control of run-
off and erosion is, therefore, perhaps the most critical  environmental  prob-
lem in the agriculture production sector.

Control of Wastes.  The direct control or treatment of such residuals assoc-
iated with runoff and erosion have usually been regarded  as infeasible  be-
cause of the wide dispersion of agriculture's discharge locations.   In  some
instances, however, such as with irrigation return flows, collector channels
have been established and waste residuals have been considered as point
sources subject to EPA point source controls.  Perhaps,  in other special
cases, drainage conditions exist such that other collector systems  could
also be devised to consolidate agricultural  waste flows—systems which  might
be treated as point sources subject to regulation.  Generally, however, pub-
lic involvement would be required both with structures planning and develop-
ment and with treatment processes.

Control of Inputs.  Soil and water management implies, specifically, the
control of either land use or water resource use.  That is, for example,
lands with known runoff or erosion problems, such as land with steep slopes,
highly erodable soil structure or flood site locations may be restrained
in terms of crop use or cultivation practices.  Where such conditions and
their attendant problems are identifiable, national land  use regulations
may be considered feasible policy issues as  a means of lessening the overall
detrimental effects of using such marginally advantageous sites.  Water re-
source use, especially in irrigated crop production, may  also be controlled.
A policy issue germane to water resource use can be a reduced subsidization
of irrigation, a reduction which would, by increasing the cost of irrigation,
result in the more intensified and judicious management and use of water  re-
sources.

Control of Management Practices.  In general, many current and prospective
agricultural practices are directed primarily toward improved soil  and  water
management.  A group of specific runoff and  erosion control practices such
as contour farming, terracing, grass waterway construction, and narrow  row
cultivation are important to controlling runoff, reducing erosion,  and
lessening the detrimental effects of the associated pollutants.  Conceivably,
more can be done to foster the use of runoff and erosion  control practices.

Additionally, other trends and developments that were assessed in this
study are primarily associated with improved soil and water management.
Conservation tillage methods, such as reduced tillage and no-till,  show
a high potential for reducing erosion and conserving water—thereby lower-
ing pollutant loadings.  Unfortunately, some offsetting factors are that
more pest problems occur and less reliable yields are obtained.  The use
of more pesticides is common, and, hence, an increased pollution potential
exists.  On balance, the optimum conservation tillage practice for a given
farming situation remains unclear at this time.  More research with this
method of soil and water management is clearly needed before specific
policies are adopted.
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Water application methods in irrigated crop production may also be developed
further to improve the associated environmental effects.  Already, return
flows of irrigation tailwaters are being reduced, recycled and/or treated
as point sources.  However, salinity build-up in the soils is a major prob-
lem in some areas, and heavy irrigation rates to leach salts from the soil
are essential to maintain crop productivity.  Again, counter-balancing ef-
fects on either the water resource or the soil resource exist, and thus,
an optimum management practice cannot be uniformly given.  Nonetheless,
broad policies to promote effective management practices in water applica-
tion, in particular, and in soil and water management, in general, are
relevant.  Such policies must recognize interactions among environmental
media, however.

Crop Production Subsector - Nutrient Management

Nutrient losses from agricultural activities into surface water and ground-
water are a major environmental concern due primarily to eutrophication ef-
fects, and, also, to toxicological impacts in some cases, e.g., nitrates in
groundwater.  In the future, fertilizer use is expected to increase sub-
stantially in order to achieve projected crop production; and, control of
residual nutrients into water receptors will likely continue as a major
problem.

Control of Wastes.  Runoff treatment to reduce nutrient levels is not
generally regarded as feasible.  Even in special  cases where runoff can
be collected, costly treatment facilities, probably publically subsidized,
would be needed; hence, it appears most practical to consider other control
policies.

Control of Inputs.  A more accessible means of nutrient runoff control is
to control fertilizer resource use.  Some type of restriction or condition
could be placed on fertilizer use in various farming situations, e.g., re-
stricted per acre fertilizer rates under given conditions; however, such
policies should carefully consider the economic and environmental trade-
offs because indiscriminate fertilizer-use control  may limit desired growth.

For example, restrictions on fertilizer use may reduce crop production per
acre, increase production costs, cause a more extensive (vs. intensive)
agricultural production, and require high administrative and enforcement
costs.  On the environmental side, nutrient levels in surface and ground-
water may be reduced (unless significantly more extended production occurs),
although the environmental impacts of such reductions in nutrients cannot
be accurately estimated.  Other forms of control  in fertilizer use might
include improved formulations, e.g., use of fertilizers that contain nitrate
inhibitors or controlled release chemicals.  On balance, great care must be
exercised in any policy to control the use of nutrients because alternative
production-paths may result in equally serious environmental problems.

Control of Management Practices.  This third type of general policy alter-
native has various options for reducing nutrient loss.  For example, best
management practices could be developed to combine such factors  as timing,


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placement, form, number and application method (as is now being developed
in general through EPA's BMP system planning).  Such practices would gener-
ally be directed toward the most efficient crop utilization, although this
objective is not inconsistent with improving nutrient losses since current
practices often involve heavy, single fertilizer applications primarily for
operator-ease.  Such applications may be subject to greater nutrient loss
than would be multiple applications of lesser amounts per application.
Another example of a management practice control  option would be the fos-
tering of soil-plant analysis to enable the farm operator to more precisely
determine the nutrient requirements of his growing crops.  This practice
would better balance crop needs and reduce excessive fertilizer applications
where applicable.   In some cases fertilizer rates may actually need to be
increased, but, as outlined above, additions of fertilizer would be dis-
persed in time, and the nutrients applied would presumably be more readily
available for uptake during the growing period with less runoff potential
during a given time interval.

Emerging developments such as biological nitrogen-fixation sources and im-
proved fertilizer formulations should continue to be monitored as poten-
tial means of controlling fertilizer resource use and/or best management
practices.  In the short-term, however, effective nutrient management will
mostly involve careful execution of selected practices; the execution of a
practice may indeed be as important environmentally as the selection of
the practice itself.

Crop Production Subsector - Pesticide Management

Pesticide residues are widespread in the environment, stemming largely from
agriculture's use of thse chemicals to maintain and improve crop production
and quality.  These residues are found in the air, soil, water supplies,
and the human food chain, and have been responsible for adverse effects on
non-target wildlife species.  Residues enter the environment through drift
during application, by volatilization after application, and by transport
via surface water runoff and sediment.  Certain pesticides will also be
leached into ground water supplies.  While the debate continues over the
actual hazards of pesticide residues in the environment, these residues
should be controlled to reduce potential dangers.  Ideally, pesticide
management should be for optimal crop production with minimal adverse
effects on the environment.

Control of Hastes.  The direct control of pesticide residues in all media
receptors, i.e., soil, air and water, would be difficult, perhaps impossible.
Though not yet economically practical, only surface water treatment to re-
move pesticide residues appears technically possible.  For the most part,
the greatest potential for adverse effects occurs after pesticide application
during the first run-off event.  Prospective on-site treatment of pesticides
in this first run-off could be beneficial to the aquatic ecosystem, and
treatment at some later point, after dilution or partial degradation, would
likely be much less effective.  This time and event-dependent relationship,
plus the dispersed location of discharge points and the difficulty of pesti-
cide control treatment, makes direct control seem economically infeasible.
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Control of Inputs.  Pesticide resource controls have been a policy alterna-
tive regularly utilized by EPA in the past, especially for toxic substances.
Most commonly, certain pesticides have been banned from agricultural use, or
are available only for restricted uses.  This action has often resulted in
the use of alternative pesticides by farm operators, and, such pesticides
may either be less effective or require more active material application
per acre to achieve adequate control.  Even so, the banned materials are
presumed to have caused (or will have caused) even greater environmental
damage.  In the future, the banning of additional pesticides is viewed as
a viable policy option.

Other forms of restrictions on pesticide use would be less severe, yet per-
haps more environmentally beneficial.  Controlling the rates of use or the
specifying of conditions of use, including the licensing of pesticide appli-
cators as is now being accomplished under FIFRA, may become more widely feas-
ible in the future.  A difficulty with such an alternative is simply its en-
forcement and the potentially high administrative costs.  However, the use
of integrated pest control management, i.e., use of chemical-mechanical-
biological management systems, is expected to increase in the future; con-
ceivably, with restricted (rather than banned) pesticides, more cost-
effective and environmentally acceptable management practices could be
developed.

Alternative formulations of pesticides are regularly being developed which
offer improved pest control  and less active material  per application:
formulations of surfactants with herbicides, foaming agents, and uniform
granular particles.  In general, such alternative formulations are ex-
pected to reduce pesticide requirements per application because of their
improved effectiveness.  These formulations often offer the advantage,
also, of less drift problems during application.

Control of Management Practices.  Current agricultural trends in pest control
management are amenable to policy controls.  For example, the expected in-
crease in scouting and integrated controls will aid in reducing the use of
chemical pesticides.  Associated management practices such as crop rotations
and the use of pest-resistant crop varieties, attractants, biological pesti-
cides, and others can reduce the need for chemical pesticides.

In general, it is expected that pest control management alternatives, such
as biological pest controls, will only reduce, and not eliminate, the need
for chemical pesticides.  Fortunately, improved chemical pesticides are also
being developed which are selective against pests, more readily biodegrad-
able, and non-toxic to man and animals.  Plant-breeding improvements which
increase the insect and disease resistance of crops will further aid in the
reduction of chemical pesticide use.

The effectiveness of any of these alternative pest management practices
will depend upon the particular crop and pests present.  As an example,
a farm operator might have a choice of using a chemical pesticide, a bio-
logical control, or a very resistant crop variety for control of a partic-
ular insect.  For another insect problem, the only effective option might
be the use of chemical pesticides.  Farm operators cannot be expected to

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voluntarily adopt alternatives such as pheromones or attractants until it is
feasible for commercial  use and can be shown to be as effective as current
control methods.   Consequently, continued  research and public education
will do much to foster adoption of other pest control practices.

Feedlot Production Subsector - Residual  Disposal  Management

Feedlot residual  disposal  alternatives are:   temporary storage, on-site dis-
posal, refeeding, and off-site disposal.  Off-site disposal is the only al-
ternative considered to have significant implications for NFS control, and,
thus, it is the only practice in the feedlot production subsector assessed
herein.

Control of Wastes.  In general, the off-site disposal of wastes is expected
to result in increased concentrations of nitrates, organic material  and
microorganisms in receiving waters.  Nitrate levels in ground water may also
be increased.   Unfortunately, once untreated feedlot wastes leave the feedlot
and are dispersed on the land, their direct  control or treatment is seldom
feasible, as with crop production residuals.  The costs of prior-disposal
treatment facilities and their technological limitations have been prohibi-
tive; hence, direct controls show little promise  as a policy alternative
at the present time.

Control of Inputs.  More practical is the control of feedlot-related inputs.
The land available for feedlot waste disposal  may be regulated.  In addi-
tion, controls might be placed on off-site disposal application rates, and,
controls might be placed on feedlot size based on the amount of suitable
land in the local area that is available for waste disposal.

Controls and restrictions  on land use might  be applicable, for example,
where land has severe erosion problems or where land drains into a heavily
used or sensitive  water receptor.  Disposal application rates can be de-
termined for soil characteristics, topography, and method of application.
Finally, feedlot-size constraints can be imposed  to reflect the relative
availability of waste disposal sites.

Such input restraints can  be maintained by policy issues that regulate the
extent and character of land sites approved  for feedlot operations or waste
disposal.

Control of Management Practices.  Proper waste disposal application rates
(also a resource use control) and methods e.g., solid or slurry, incorpor-
ated in soil or not, etc.  constitute feasible management practices subject
to policy issues.  Continued research is needed,  however, to ascertain the
best management practices  in this feedlot waste disposal area.

Range and Pasture Management Subsector - Grazing  Management

Livestock grazing on range and pasture land  generally results in increased
soil erosion and runoff.  Grazing livestock wastes, also, result in in-
creased amounts of nitrate, organic material and  microorganisms in
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receiving waters.  Proper grazing management practices will minimize these
pollution effects.

Control of Wastes.  Policies to control or treat range and pasture grazing
residues are not expected to be feasible because of the highly dispersed
and expansive character of  ranges and pastures.  Furthermore, many persons
would argue that the  residuals generated are relatively insignificant when
compared with other agricultural or point source wastes.  These arguments
suggest that the greatest policy focus should be on control of inputs or
control of management practices where improper actions are evident.

Control of Inputs.  Land use is the only applicable input for policy control
Land with severe topographical limitations or land having fragile soils
could be excluded from grazing.  Such control would reduce erosion problems
and the transport of  livestock wastes into receiving waters.  (Stocking
rates—number of animals per unit land—may also be considered as an input
variable, but this is discussed below as a management practice.)

Control of Management Practices.  Because grazing practices are the main
management function having  associated environmental effects, they are the
most susceptible to control policies.  First, grazing management systems
are normally selected by producers, and proper stocking rates are implicit
within the system.  Grazing systems are either continuous or specialized.
The determination and selection of a grazing system should be based on
factors such as the type and location of the range or pasture, its topo-
graphical limitations, the  condition of the range or pasture, and other
factors (e.g., use of land  for recreation or silvicultural production).
The factors to be assessed  in selecting the best grazing system are com-
plex, and, for that reason, policies to control the selection of proper
management practices  may be applicable.  The Bureau of Land Management,
USDI, and the U.S. Forest Service currently provide grazing management
services and controls on public lands.

Range and Pasture Management - Renovations and Improved Management

Range and pasture renovations and improvements involve practices which
usually cause soil disturbances and consequent soil loss.  Chemical reno-
vations will also involve increased pesticide runoff.  In these cases,
however, pollutant loading  increases are normally temporary, and, as re-
vegetation occurs on  the disturbed or bared soil, the loadings subside.
For example, drainage and erosion control structures result in a short-
term disruption, but  they will eventually promote soil stability and,
thereby, benefit the  environment in the future.  Because of the differ-
ential short-term vs.  long-term effects of range and pasture renovations
and improvements care must  be taken in developing policy controls which
might limit renovations in  the short-run without adequate evaluation of
the long-term effects.

Control of Wastes.  The control of renovation and improvement wastes is
Impracticable both because  of the dispersed and intermittent nature of
the practices and because of their relatively short-term environmental
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effects.   Further considerations of policy controls are, therefore, limited
to potential resource use limitations and management practice issues.

Control of Inputs.  Land use, pesticide use and prescribed fire use are the
primary inputs that may be considered for policy control.  Lands unsuited
for grazing or lands with limited carrying-capacity may be restricted in use
and/or renovation practices may be required.   Pesticide uses on ranges or
pastures may be regulated, or even banned, under adverse conditions -- much
the same as is being done with pesticides in  other agricultural subsectors.
The use of prescribed burning for renovation  purposes may be subject to con-
trols in air quality limited regions.

Control of Management Practices.  Range and pasture renovation or improvement
practices may result in controversial policy  issues, for though these prac-
tices generally result in short-term soil disturbances and increased pollu-
tion, they can yield improved soil stability  and reduced pollution in the
long-term.  Careful assessments are needed to determine optimum strategies
under varied range or pasture conditions.  Alternative management practices
include mechanical or chemical renovations and renovations through prescribed
burnings.  Particular attention needs to be given to any potential controls
on range or pasture lands with a rough terrain or with fragile soils.

Other management practices are primarily concerned with the quality of the
range or pasture vegetation.  For example, improvements are being made in
the nutritional quality of the vegetation, genetic developments are being
pursued, and inter-seedings with improved forage varieties have been achieved.
These practices will indirectly, if not directly, affect environmental qual-
ity by improving the production efficiency of the nation's range and pasture
resources.  Environmental control policies which foster such management
practices may be feasible and beneficial.


                  B.  Silviculture Sector Policy Issues


While certain similarities exist in pollutants generated by the agriculture
and silviculture sectors, certain innate differences do exist; and thus,
their policy issues are assessed separately.   Differences include 30 to 100
year growth cycles in silviculture compared to the predominant annual cycles
in agriculture production.  Specifically, total annual levels of pollutants
from the entire silviculture sector are relatively small because of the long
growth cycles which require that only a relatively small portion of the total
500 million acres of timber be entered each year for any type of management.

Aesthetic and wildlife considerations, also,  may become an increasingly
most important part of silviculture production from the environmentalist's
viewpoint.  Silviculture is expected to coexist with wildlife populations,
be aesthetically pleasing, and, at the same time, provide the nation's
timber supply.  These multiuse purposes for forest lands complicate the
environmental assessment process.

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As with agriculture, three types of policy controls are discussed within
the silviculture sector:  control of wastes, control of inputs, and con-
trol of management practices.  A general summary of potential policy is-
sues, categorized by type of control, is shown in Exhibit IV-2.  This sum-
mary includes both the Phase I and Phase II environmentally-related trends
in silviculture identified in this overall study.

Silviculture Production Sector - Harvest Management Function

The principal pollutant generated by harvest management practices is sedi-
ment.  Since forest areas are seldom fertilized or treated with chemical
pesticides on a regular basis, sediment is usually not a carrier of appli-
cation nutrients or pesticide residues.  Other environmental effects of
harvesting include thermal pollution, altered water flow patterns, forest
residues, wildlife disruptions, and aesthetics.  While pollutants resulting
from harvest activity may contribute only a small part to aggregate non-
point source pollution, the effect of large sediment loadings or wildlife
disruptions in isolated harvest areas can be very damaging to the ecosystem
in that area.  Hence, harvest management, in general, should be evaluated
to improve the control of generated pollutants as well as for the control
of ecological effects.

Control of Wastes.  The direct control of sediment generated by harvesting
practices is not regarded as feasible, primarily because sediment loadings
from silviculture activities may be rather insignificant and surface waters
receiving sediment loads will change each year with harvest activity.   Forest
residues remaining after harvest can be collected for future use or for con-
trolled burning.

Control of Inputs.  Harvest management inputs include land use and equipment
use.  Associated policy issues can designate certain sections of a forest
area as critical habitat for certain endangered species, and, therefore,
restrict harvesting.  Land with steep terrain or fragile soils could be
withdrawn from road constructions.  Harvesting equipment could also be
banned for use in certain terrains and forest types, or conversely specific
practices could be required to ensure minimal environmental  impacts.  Such
harvest management input contols could be readily adopted on public lands;
private holdings might be similarly managed, with greater complexity however,
if necessary.

Control of Management Practices^  While practices can clearly be established
and identified in agriculture to control runoff and erosion or to control
nutrient losses, these equivalent practices do not exist in silviculture.
Rather, a series of broad functional steps (trends) are involved in har-
vesting management:  access to timber, cutting systems, log extraction
methods, and utilization of forest biomass.  Each of these steps has
associated practices that must be used during the harvesting of a forest.
Management practices for harvesting are not considered as control measures,
themselves; rather the control of management practices for harvesting im-
plies the proper use of equipment, use of well-engineered plans, and
proper execution of management practices to cause the least environmental
damage.  In certain cases, as with cutting systems, a selected management

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               Exhibit  IV-2.   Summary of  silviculture sector policy issues by management function and basic policy area

                                 	Basic Policy Area	
   Silviculture Management                                                                      Control of Management
           Function                Control  of Wastes           Control of  Inputs                         Practices

                                                          B.  SILVICULTURE SECTOR
   Harvest  management             Forest residues,  sed-    Land use, equipment use       Access to timber resource; cutting system;
                                 iment                                                log extraction; utilization


us Stand  control  management       Sediment,  nutrients,     Fertilizer  resource use,      Site preparation; growth enhancement
0                               forest residues          land use, equipment use,      stand conversion; stand establishment
                                                         control burning use


   Damage control  management      Forest residues,  pes-    Land use, pesticide re-       Fire control; pest control
                                 ticide residues,  sed-    source use, controlled
                                 iment,  nutrients         burning use

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practice may be more desirable for specific terrains for forest species.  In
summary, the proper execution of a given management practice is usually of
greater concern in harvest management than is the selection of the manage-
ment practice, per se; however, some exceptions are apparent, which may be
subject to effective policy control, such as with cutting system selection.

Silviculture Production Sector - Stand Control Management

Stand control management practices often result in significant soil loss
and sediment loadings in receiving waters.  Since fertilizer applications
are required with some of these practices, nutrient loss may also accompany
soil movement and surface runoff.  Additionally, other environmental  effects
of stand control practices are impaired aesthetic values, unsightly forest
residues, and wildlife disruptions (often irreversible).  Thus, the primary
objective of stand control management should be the achieving maximum forest
growth for future harvest while reducing sediment loading in receiving waters
and minimizing ecological disruptions.

Control of Wastes.  The direct control of wastes or residuals associated
with stand control involves the control of sediment, nutrients, and forest
residues.  Direct control or treatment of sediment and nutrients is expected
to be economically infeasible because sediment loading locations are very
diverse and will change as stand control management moves from one site to
another after successful regeneration.  Direct control of forest residues
is already being accomplished by the collection of residuals remaining after
site preparation, thinning control or other stand control measures.  These
residues, after collection, may be marketed or burned, under controlled con-
ditions, as a means of removal.

Control of Inputs.  Stand control management practice inputs include the
two as discussed for harvest management -- land use and equipment use, plus
two additional inputs -- fertilizer use and controlled burning use.  De-
pending upon the terrain, harvest methods, and desired forest species, each
of the four inputs could have restraints placed on their use.  For example,
large applications of phosphate are needed on some forest soils in the South
for successful regeneration.  Should phosphate concentrations in surface
water greatly increase, phosphate application could be restricted on a per
acre basis.  Another example of input control would involve land use in the
conversion of wetlands to productive forests.  If these wetlands were to be
designated as critical habitat for winter waterfowl, then further conversion
of this land into forest area could be restricted.

Control of Management Practices.  Four trends -- site preparation, growth
enhancement, stand conversion, and stand establishment are considered stand
control management practices.  Each of these has a number of associated
practices that can be used singly or in conjunction with other practices
to achieve optimum forest regeneration; however, as with harvest management
practices, the proper execution of a given management practice is often of
greater concern than is the actual selection of a management practice.  For
the most part, a stand control management practice is primarily designed
not to specifically reduce a pollutant or minimize certain ecological


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effects but to be effective in some area of stand control.  With careful,
conscientious execution, pollutants and other ecological effects resulting
from these practices can be reduced.

Site preparation can be accomplished by several means:  log extraction
method, mechanical preparation, burning prescription, chemical treatment,
fertilizer treatment, and soil moisture control.  Burning prescription or
chemical treatment might be preferred practices in forest areas with steep
terrains, fragile soils, or heavy rainfall; with other soils and forest
types, any of the site preparation methods, with proper planning and exe-
cution, could be used with minimal pollutant loading effects.

Growth enhancement, stand conversion, and stand establishment also offer
some choice in practice alternatives.  Again, proper execution is often
the most important aspect in reducing pollutant loadings and ecological
effects.

Silviculture Production Sector - Damage Control Management

The third area of selected silviculture management functions is the control
of fire, insects, and disease to reduce the potential for forest damage.
Pesticide residue levels in receiving waters are expected to increase with
chemical control of insects and disease.  Mechanical  treatment used to
eliminate infested material will result in forest residues and in minor
soil disturbances.  For the most part, fire control  and prevention methods
will have relatively insignificant environmental impacts.   Controlled fire
will result in air pollution and in temporary increases in the nutrient
levels of receiving streams.

Control of Wastes.  Forest residues, sediment,  nutrients,  and pesticides
partially discussed previously, are associated  with  direct control of re-
siduals resulting from damage control management.  Additionally, collection
and/or controlled burning of forest residues may result in beneficial aes-
thetic effects, and as a management practice, the elimination of these
residues will reduce the potential for hazardous forest fires.

Control of Inputs.  As with the other management practices, certain forests
are or could be designated as having critical habitat or as having such
topographical limitations that restrictions could be placed on land and/or
resource use.  Fire control practices, a third  damage management practice
input, involve improvements in prevention and detection methods and in
the use of controlled fire to reduce the potential of disastrous fires.
Generally, these practices will have relatively insignificant environ-
mental impacts, and the control of management practices will be for more
efficiency in their functions rather than for the control  of environmental
pollutants.

Control of Management Practices^.  For insect and disease control, only two
options exist for management practices:  control by mechanical treatment
or control by chemical agents.  Since each can  result in pollutants of some
nature, careful planning and execution of either practice are necessary to
reduce potential environmental pollutants.  Some alternatives do exist,

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however, in the control of insects and disease.  If, for example, a properly
applied insecticide has adverse effects on non-target wildlife or on aquatic
ecosystems from aerial drift or surface runoff, then the best management
might involve using mechanical treatment in that area, even though forest
residues and potential soil loss will occur.  Additionally, pest control
with such biological agents as pheromones, repellants, or natural predators
may become another alternative by 2010.  This practice might be preferable
to chemical or mechanical control in some areas.
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                                 SECTION V

                                BIBLIOGRAPHY
Adriano, D.  C., P.  F.  Pratt and S.  E.  Bishop,  "Fate of Organic Forms  of
      N and Salt from Land-Disposal  Manures  from Dairies,"  In:  Livestock
      Waste Management and Pollution Abatement,  pp.  243-246,  Amer.  Soc.  of
      Agr.  Eng., St.  Joseph, Michigan, 1971.

All is, G. A., "The  Story of Two Watersheds," Journal  Soil  and Water Con-
      servation, 7(5):243, 1952.

Anderson, H. W., "Relative Contributions  of  Sediment from  Source Areas  and
      Transport Processes," Proc.  Symposium  "Forest Land Uses and Stream
      Environment," pp.  55-63,  O.S.U.  Corvallis, Oregon, 1971.

               _, "Suspended Sediment Discharge as Related  to  Streamflow,
      Topography, Soil  and Land Use,"  Trans  Am.  Geophys  Union,  Vol.  35,
      pp.  268-281, 1954.

Arend, J.  L.,  "Infiltration Rates  of Forest  Soils  in  the Missouri  Ozarks
      as Affected by Woods Burning and Litter Removal,"  J.  Forestry,
      39:726-728, 1941.

Aubertin,  G.  M.  and J.  H.  Patric,  "Quality Water from Clearcut  Land,"
      Northern Logger,  20(8):14-15, 1972.

Beasley, R.  S.,  "Potential Effects of Forest Management  on  Stormflow
      Survey and Water Quality," Proc. Miss.  Water Resources  Conf.,  1976.

Bell, A. M.,  Range!and Management  for Livestock  Production, Univ.  of Okla-
      homa Press, Norman,  Oklahoma, 1973.

Bishop, D. and M. E. Stevens, Landslides on  Logged Aneasin  S.  E.  Alaska,
      U. S.  Depart. Agr.,  Forest Service,  Res.  Paper  NOR-1, 18  p., 1964.

Booker, L. J., Surface Irrigation, FAO, Italy,  1974.

Bureau of Land Management, Timber Management, Final Environmental  Impact
      Statement, 584 pp.,  Washington,  D.C.,  1976.

Burke, D., "Automated Analysis of Timber Access  to Road  Alternatives,"
      U.S. Dept. of Agr.,  Forest Service Pacific Northwest, Forest and
      Range Experiment Station, PNW 123, 1976.
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Burke, D., "New Tools Allow Examination of Alternatives Speedily,"
      Forest Industries, Vol. 102:(7), pp. 48-50, Vol. 102:(8),
      pp. 44, June 1975.

Burke D., Running Skylines Reduce Access Road Needs Minimize Harvest
      Impact, Forest Industries, Vol. 102:(7), p. 46, May 1975.

Bury/ell, R. E., G. E. Shyman, R. F. Piest, R. G. Spomer and T. M.  McCalla,
      "Quality of Water Discharged from Two Agricultural Watersheds in
      Southwestern Iowa," Water Resources Research, 10(2):359-365, 1974.

Burwell, R. E., D. R. Timmons and R. F. Holt, "Nutrient Transport in Sur-
      face Runoff as Influenced by Soil Cover and Seasonal  Periods,"
      Soil Science Soc. Amer. Proc., 1975.

Carlile, B. L., "Sediment Control in Yahima Valley," In:  Managing Irri-
      gated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality, Proc. of National Con-
      ference on Managing Irrigated Agriculture to Improve Water Quality,
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      Fall 3-4, 9, 1975.

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      and Value," Agr. Exp. Station Bull. 386, Auburn Univ., Auburn,
      Alabama, 1968.

Whitman, W., F. W. Christensen and E. A. Helgeson, "Pasture Grasses and
      Pasture Mixtures for Eastern North Dakota," North Dakota Agr. Exp.
      Sta. Bull. , No. 327, 1943.

Wischmeier, W. H., "Relation of Field-plot Runoff to Management and Physical
      Factors," Soil Science Society Amer. Proc., 30:272-277, 1966.

Young, R. A., "Nutrients in Runoff from Manure Spread on Frozen Ground,"
      Trans, of ASAE, 1973.

Zobell, B., "Significance of Forest Renewable and Tree Improvement to
      Forest Farmers,"  Forest Farmer, Vol. 35, No. 6, p. 44, March, 1976.

Ziverman, P. J., A. B. Drielsma, G. D. Jones, S. D. Klausner and D. Ellis,
      "Rates of Water Infiltration Resulting from Applications of Dairy
      Manure," In:  Relationship of Agriculture to Soil and Water Pollu-
      tion, pp. 263-270, Proc. 1970 Cornell Agricultural Waste Management
      Conf., Graphics Management Corp., Washington, D. C., 1970.
                                   105

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                                APPENDIX A
      DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL TRENDS
                AND THE ECOLOGY WORKSHOP EVALUATION SUMMARY
The Contractor prepared a background summary report of selected Phase II
agriculture trends and subtrends which was submitted to an ecology work-
shop panel for their review prior to the workshop.   Based upon this sum-
mary, the workshop identified and rated the ecological effects of each
subtrend in three areas:  aquatic life, terrestrial life, and human health.


            A.  Background Summary Report - Agricultural  Sector


Only selected trends and their subtrends, from Phase I, as shown in Exhibit
A-l, were chosen for the Phase II study.  In particular,  10 trends and 41
subtrends are contained herein for detailed analysis.   The Contractor con-
ducted a thorough literature search for each subtrend's extensiveness of
use, productivity effects, changes in resource use, and pollutant changes
by media.  Quantitative data were sought and included  when available in the
summary report.  A worksheet was prepared for each  subtrend showing the Con-
tractor's research findings, conclusions, and references.  This information
was provided to each workshop participant in the background summary report
and summaries are contained in the Appendix immediately following.
                              B.   Evaluation
As mentioned, the principal task of the ecology workshop was to determine
and rate the ecological effects of each agriculture subtrend in three areas:
aquatic life, terrestrial life and human health.  Ecological effects could
be beneficial (+) or adverse (-) on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1  = minor, 2 =
limited, 3 = moderate, 4 = important and 5 = major.  A consensus judgment
was sought by the workshop for all ecological ratings.  Ratings were deter-
mined for both the short-term, 1985, and long-term, 2010, relative to 1976.
Worksheets showing the ecological effects, ecological ratings,  and related
ecological research needs for each subtrend are also contained herein in
conjunction with the background summaries according to their trend-subtrend
number as shown in Exhibit A-l.
                                    106

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           Exhibit A-l.  Summary of selected  Phase  II trends and
                        subtrends in agriculture
Sector/Trend
                                           Subtrend
                          A.   AGRICULTURE  SECTOR
Crop Production
  1.  Runoff  and Erosion  Control
  2.  Conservation Tillage
  3.  Improved Water Application
  4.  Improvement Seed and  Plants
  5.
  6.
Scouting and Integrated
Controls
Development of New Bio-
logical and Chemical
Pesticides
  7.
Methods of Nutrient
Application
  8.  Soil  Plant Analysis

Feedlot Production
  9.  Alternative Residual
      Disposal

Range and Pasture Management
 10.  Grazing  Practices  and
      Stocking  Rates
1.1  Contour farming/contour strip cropping
1.2  Terraces and grass waterways
1.3  Optimizing time of operations
1.4  Narrow rows
1.5  Winter cover crop

2.1  No-tillage
2.2  Reduced tillage

3.1  Furrow basins
3.2  Land grading
3.3  Sprinklers
3.4  Recycling and controlling tailwater
3.5  Irrigation scheduling and efficiency

4.1  Weather resistance
4.2  Salt resistance
4.3  Production efficiency
4.4  Disease and insect resistant

5.1  Surface scouting
5.2  Remote sensing scouting
5.3  Integrated controls

6.1  Micro-encapsulated
6.2  Systemic pesticides
6.3  Surfactants for herbicides
6.4  Bio-degradable pesticides
6.5  Alternative formulations
6.6  Juvenile hormones
6.7  Pheromones
6.8  Sterile males
6.9  Predators and parasites

7.1  Foliar application
7.2  Multiple application
7.3  Fall application
7.4  Liquid fertilizer
7.5  Aerial and floater application
7.6  Improved nutrient placement
7.7  Irrigation application

8.1  Soil plant analysis


9.1  Off-site disposal-  solids and
     liquids
                            10.1   Continuous grazing
                            10.2   Specialized grazing
                            10.3   Complementary forage seedings
                            10.4   Controlled livestock grazing
                                    107

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                                      Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology  Workshop
    Trend:   1. Runoff and Erosion Control	    Subtrend:   1.1 Contour farming/contour strip cropping	

                        Ecological  Effect  Rating _!/
    TYPE OF EFFECT           19852010                                       Factors/Rationale


    Aquatic                  +1             +4            4-turbidity;  tspecies diversity; low E in 1985; ^pesticide residues

    Terrestrial              +1             +3            4-erosion;  retention of nutrient cycles
    Human Health              0              0            No  significant effects
    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1) Potential ecological effects 2/:

    Extensiveness of contouring in 1935 (over 1976 use)  will  be  low,  but will increase by 2010.  Beneficial aquatic effects
_,  result from decreased turbidity and pesticide residues  in surface water.  Species diversity will also increase in the
o  equatic ecosystem.   Decreased erosion and retention  of  soil  nutrient cycles will have long term beneficial terrestrial
00  effects.   Since pesticide residues  at current levels in drinking  water are not known to be a human health hazard,
    reduction of pesticide residues will  have no significant  human  health effects.  However, if pesticide residues are later
    determined to be dangerous  at current levels, then  human  health effects would be beneficial.


    (2) Research needs:

        a.  Continued research  is needed  on pesticide residues and  their effects on human health.

        b.  Additional  research is also needed to determine the  effectiveness of contouring on reducing nutrient and
            pesticide losses.
    If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
       beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.

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                                          Exhibit  1.1.     Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:  Crop  Production
                                                                    Trend:   1.  Runoff find  Erosion  Control
                                                           Subtrend;  1,1 Contour Faming/Contour  Strip  Cropping
                                                                                                                                                      Page  1
                 Environmental
                    Effects
o
                                                  Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                      References
               Extensiveness         Acreage of crops farmed on the con-
                                     tour or strip cropped decreased 25%
                                     between 1964 and 1969 and continued
                                     to decrease slightly to 1976.   Con-
                                     tour farming is more widely used in
                                     nonirrigated crop production than in
                                     irrigated crop production.
                                                                1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings--

                                                                Panel  1:  1976  3  ;  1985  4  ; 2010 _5_.

                                                                Panel  2:  1976  1  ;  1985  1  ; 2010   1  .

                                                                2.  Grain  and Row  Crops on Contour--

                                                                   1964 = 20,254,000 acres

                                                                   1969 = 14,572,000 acres

                                                                   Strip  Cropping for Erosion Control-

                                                                   1964 = 16,029,000 acres

                                                                   1969 = 12,447,000 acres
                                          1.  Dev.  Planning  & Res.  Assoc.,  En-
                                             vironmental  Implications  of Trends
                                             in  Agriculture and  Silviculture,
                                             Volume  1,  200  pp.,  1977.

                                          2.  U.S.  Bureau  of Census,  Census of
                                             Agriculture, 1969.  Volume 5.
                                             Special  Reports,  Part 15, Graphic
                                             Summary, 1971.
Productivity          Land suited  to contour farming
                      techniques will  have production
                      levels comparable to conventional
                      methods.   Decreased income may re-
                      sult from hay rotations 1n strip
                      cropping.  Land base will  remain
                      the same.
                                                                               3.  Yields  from contour  farming  will
                                                                                  bi 0.1% less than  conventional
                                                                                  methods.

                                                                               4.  Hay rotations 1n strip  cropping
                                                                                  can decrease profits.
                                          3.  Putrran,  J.,  Stripe,  S.,  and
                                             McDivitt,  J.,  A  Summary  of the
                                             Linear  Programming Analysis  for
                                             the Maumee Level  B River Basin
                                             Study,  preliminary working paper.
                                             T25~pp., 1977.

                                          4.  U.S.  Dept. of  Agriculture/U.S.
                                             Environmental  Protection Agency,
                                             Control  of Water Pollution from
                                             Cropland,  Volume 1,  Report No.
                                             ARS-H-5-1, Washington, D.C.,
                                             1975.
               Resource Use          Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
                                     main constant.  Insecticide use
                                     will remain constant to very
                                     slight increases (.02%).
                                                                5.  Fertilizer and herbicide use re-       5. Reference #3.
                                                                   main constant.   Insecticide use
                                                                   increases 0.02?.

                                                                6.  Fertilizer and pesticide use do        6. reference #4.
                                                                   not change with  contouring.
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media:
               Surface Water
               Sediment
                      Sediment loss can be reduced sub-
                      stantially on moderate slopes,  but
                      much less on steep slopes.   Reduc-
                      tions up to 50% are possible, but
                      average reductions will  be  about
                      35%.   Contour strip cropping can re-
                      duce sediment losses more than  con-
                      tour alone.  (Note: research shows
                      substantial loss can occur  with
                      contour watersheds with some soil
                      types, with long slopes and/or  with
                      steep slopes.)
/. Soil loss is reduced an average
   of 12% with contour farming
   practices.

8. Contour reduces soil loss to 50%
   on moderate slopes, but much less
   on steep slopes.   Contour strip
   cropping reduces  soil  loss to 50%
   of that in contour alone.

9. Direct run-off was reduced 32%
   with contouring over 9-year
   period.
                                                                                                                         7.  Reference  #3.
                                                                                                                         8.  Reference  #4.
                                                                                                                         9.  Allis,  J.  A.  "The  Story  of Two
                                                                                                                            Watersheds."  Journal  Soil  and
                                                                                                                            Water  Conservation 7(5): 243,
                                                                                                                            195L.
                                                                                                                                         continued . . .

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                                                           Exhibit  1.1.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                       Page 2
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Surface Water
Sediment
  (Continued)
Nutrients
Pesticides
                      Nutrients associated with sediment
                      will be reduced, but reductions may
                      not be proportional to the amount
                      of sediment lost.
                      Pesticide reductions will be less
                      than that for nutrients since a
                      greater amount of pesticide 1s
                      lost through surface-water than
                      bound to sediment.
                                         10.  Runoff was  reduced  13-16% with
                                             contour tillage.
                                         11.  Contour farmmj  on  slopes with
                                             loess  soil  showed substantial
                                             soil  losses,  17-48  metric tons/ha.

                                         12.  Practices  reducing  direct surface
                                             runoff and  erosion  will  reduce
                                             nutrient transport,  but  reduc-
                                             tions  may  not be proportional to
                                             sediment reductions.

                                         13.  89;: of N lost and 95'* of F  lost
                                             were associated  with sediment
                                             (except for alfalfa).

                                         14.  Over 97% of N and P  lost from
                                             valersheds  was associated with
                                             sediment lost primarily  in  first
                                             2 months after planting.

                                         15.  Major  mechanism  of  pesticide loss
                                             (except for chlorinated  hydro-
                                             carbons) is not  by  transport on
                                             eroded soil particles, but  with
                                             surface runoff water.  The  con-
                                             centration  on sediment is greater,
                                             but the greatest amount  of  loss
                                             occur  with  surface  runoff,  since
                                             there  is a  greater  amount of water
                                             lost compared to sediment.  Run-
                                             off and soil  loss management
                                             practices  can often reduce  pes-
                                             ticide losses to some extent.
                                          10. Wischmeier, W.H., "Relation of
                                              Field-plot Runoff to Management
                                              and Physical Factors," Soil Sci.
                                              Soc. Amer. Proc. 30: 272-277,
                                              1966.

                                          11. Burwell, R.E., and others, "Qual-
                                              ity of Water Discharged from Two
                                              Agricultural Watersheds in South-
                                              western Iowa," Water Resources
                                              Research 10(2): 359-365, 1974.

                                          12. Reference *4.

                                          13. Timmons, D.R., and Holt, R.F.,
                                              "Relation of Nutrient Content of
                                              Water to Agricultural Practices
                                              and Natural Vegetation," on-going
                                              research, North Cen. Soil Cons.
                                              Res. Lab, Minnesota, 1976.

                                          14. Burwell, R.E., and others, "Nu-
                                              trient Transport in Surface Run-
                                              off as Influenced by Soil Cover
                                              and Seasonal Periods," Soil Sci.
                                              Soc. Amer. Proc., 1975.

                                          15. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and
                                              Swank, R.R., "Transport, Detoxi-
                                              fication, Fate, and Effects of
                                              Pesticides 1n Soil and Water En-
                                              vironments," pp. 48-78.  In: Land
                                              Application of Waste Materials,
                                              Soil Cons. Society of Am., Iowa,
                                              1976.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water—Nutrients-
Pesticides
Loss of nutrients and pesticides
through ground water will remain
constant or decrease slightly.  How-
ever the amount of N leached 1s
small compared to amount that can
be lost 1n runoff and loss of pes-
ticides to ground water 1s minor
with proper application rates.
16.  Movement of pesticides  into
    ground water from normal  appli-
    cation rates is  an unlikely  path-
    way of significant loss.

17.  Amount of N leached Is  small  com-
    pared to the amount than  can be
    lost in runoff.

18.  As much as 89 to 90% of N lost  1s
    bound to sediment.
16.  Reference #15.
                                                                                                          17.  Reference  #4.
                                                                                                          18.  Reference  #13  and #14.
                                                                                                                           continued

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                                                           Exhibit  1.1.   (Continued)
  Environmental                                                                Research
     Effects                       Conclusions                                Findin9>                                 References

Pollutant Changes     Erosion losses can be reduced up         See research finding  on  sediment.
in Media: Soil         to 50% with average reductions
                      of U,? (See conclusions on
                      sediment).

Pollutant Changes     Pesticide losses through volatiliza-     19.  Incorporation  of  pesticides  into        19.  Re.-rence #15.
in Media: Air         tion will decrease if they are in-           soil  tends  to  reduce losses  by
                      corporated into the soil by mechan-          volatilization  and wind  erosion.
                      ical means.

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                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in  Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:   1. Runoff and Erosion Control	    SubtrerJ:   1.2 Terraces  and  grass  waterways	

                    Ecological Effect Rating  I/
TYPE OF EFFECT           19"5?          2010                                       Factors/Rationale

Aquatic                  +1            +3             conserve water; 4-turbidity; 1-species,  4-pesticides; low  E

Terrestrial              +1            +3             topsoil  saved; tspecies diversity;  -(-pathways
Human Health              0             0             no known effect, based on present knowledge
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects 2/ :

 Terraces are more effective than contouring in reducing pollutants, but extensiveness of use is  lower for terraces.
 Aquatic effects are decreased turbidity, increased species diversity, and decreased pesticide residues.   Terrestrial
 effects are beneficial, resulting from increased vegetation on terraces and grass water waterways,  increased  diversity
 of wildlife, and more pathways for animal populations to travel.  Valuable topsoil will also be  retained.  Based  on
 present knowledge, there is no known human health effect.  Decreased sediment in water might result in an unpleasant
 taste or odor  in drinking water.


 (2)  Research needs:

      a.  Research is needed on the maintenance of terrace; and grassways and the effects on terrestrial life.

      b.  Sediment standards in U.S. waters and the effect upon drinking water quality need to be  determined.

      c.  Effectiveness of soil erosion measures in the control of nutrient losses needs continued research.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=ma,jor ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse  effect.

2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.

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                          Exhibit   1.2.    Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural  trends:  Crop  Production
                                                    Trend:   1.  Runoff and Erosion Control
                                                  Subtrend:   1.2 Terrfces and Grass Haterways
                                                                                                                                       Page 1
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Extenslveness         Terraces and grass waterways are
                      not important in irrigated pro-
                      duction, but are important for non-
                      irrigated crops.  However only 6* of
                      all acres in 1969 had terraces.  The
                      acres with terraces in 1976 could
                      have increased or decreased slightly.
                                         1.  Evaluation  Workshop  Ratings--

                                         Panel  1:  1976   4  t  1985  5  t  2010 _5_

                                         Panel  2:  1976   J  ,  1985  0  .  2010 _1_

                                         2.  Cropland  and pastures  with  ter-
                                            races  in  1969  were  16,435,000
                                            acres.
                                           1.  Dev.  Planning  and  Research  Assoc.,
                                              Environmental  Implications  of
                                              Trends  in Agriculture and Silvi-
                                              culture.  Volume I,  200 pp.,  1S77.

                                           2.  U.S.  Bureau  of Census, Census  of
                                              Agriculture.  1969,  Volume 5,
                                              Special  Reports,  Part 15, Graphic
                                              Summary.
Productivity          Productivity will remain unchanged.
                      Some land will be taken out of
                      production by terraces and grass
                      waterways, but will permit more
                      extensive cropping on slopes.
Resource Use          Fertilizer, herbicide, and in-
                      secticide use is not expected to
                      increase (Fertilizer could in-
                      crease if production per cropped
                      acre is expected to increase to
                      compensate for land taken out of
                      production).  However, terrace
                      practices will not require more
                      fertilizers.  Costs and maintenance
                      increase for terraces.
                                         3.  Terraces  can  increase  cropping
                                            intensities on  slopes.
                                              U.S.  Department of Agriculture/
                                              U.S.  Environmental  Protection
                                              Agency,  Control  of Water  Pollu-
                                              tion  from Cropland. Volume I,
                                              Report No.  ARS-H-5-1,  Wasnington,
                                              D.C., 1975.
                                         None  Available.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water - Sediment
Substantial  reductions in
sediment and runoff can usually
be expected.
4. Reduced sediment 94-985! compared
   to contour Loess soil  on slope.
   22% of total  water yield was
   surface runoff, 78% was base flow
   water.

5. Runoff from terrace field had a
   207. increase.
                                                               6. Terraces usually reduce runoff
                                                                  and sediment.

                                                               7. Contour continuous :orn on Loess
                                                                  soil lost 38 tons of sediment per
                                                                  acre compared to 1 ton - 2.9 tons
                                                                  of sediment per acre lost with
                                                                  terraces.  Of total water yield,
                                                                  11% was surface runoff with ter-
                                                                  races compared to 67% surface
                                                                  runoff for contour.
4. Bui-well, R.E., and others, "Qual-
   ity of Water Discharged from Two
   Agricultural Watersheds in South-
   western Iowa," Water Resources
   Research 10(2): 359-365, 1974.

5. Richardson, C.W., "Changes in
   Water Yield of Small Watersheds
   by Agricultural Practices, Iran
   ASAE 15(3): 591-592.

6. Reference * 3.

7. Saxon, K.E., Sporner, R.G., and
   Kramer, L.A., "Hydrology and
   Erosion of Loesslal Watersheds,"
   ASCE Proc. Hvdr. D1v. 97(Hv 11h
   1835-1851. 1971.
                                                                                                                        continued . .  .

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                                                           Exhibit  1.2.  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                         Page  2
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Nutrients
Pesticides
                      Reductions in nitrates and phos-
                      phates are expected with decreased
                      soil loss and surface runoff.  Re-
                      ductions could be substantial with
                      some soils and cropping systems.
                      Reduction of pesticide residues In
                      surface water could be substantial
                      with terrace systems, since both
                      surface runoff and soil loss are
                      reduced.
                                          8.  Total  nitrogen lost in surface
                                             runoff with terraces was  reduced
                                             83-94% compared to  contoured  corn.
                                             Phosphorous lost in sediment  was
                                             recuced 63-RO" In the same  system.

                                          9.  As much as  97% of N and P lost
                                             frcm watersheds was associated
                                             with sediment loss, primarily in
                                             first two months after planting.

                                         10.  Pesticides  are lost on sediment
                                             anc oy surface runoff.   The
                                             greatest amount of  pesticide  loss
                                             is from surface runoff.  Concen-
                                             tre tions on sediment may  be
                                             higher, but a greater amount  of
                                             water is lost compared to sediment.

                                         11.  Hydrocarbon and organophosphate
                                             insecticides were used on a
                                             terraced-watershed, but no  de-
                                             tectable residues were found  in
                                             runoff water.
                                            8.  Reference  #4.
                                            9.  Burwell,  R.E.,  Timrons,  D.R.,  and
                                               Holt,  R.F.,  "Nutrient  Transport
                                               1n Surface Water  as  Influenced by
                                               Soil Cover and  Seasonal  Periods,"
                                               Soil Sci. Soc.  Amer. Proc..  1975.

                                           10.  Leonard,  R.A.,  Bally,  G.W.,  and
                                               Swank,  R.R.,  "Transport,  Detox-
                                               ification, Fate,  and Effects of
                                               Pesticides in Soil and Water
                                               Environments, '  Land Application
                                               of Haste  Materials. Soil  Conser-
                                               vation  Society  of America,  Iowa,
                                               1976.

                                           11.  Reference #4.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water - Nutrients
Pesticides
N in ground water may be re-
duced, based on limited
research data.
Leaching of pesticides 1s not likely
to result in significant loss with
normal application rates.
12. N loss in ground water showed 20-
    45? reductions for a terrace
    watershed compared to a contour
    watershed.
12.  Reference #4.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Substantial reductions 1n erosion
can result.
See research finding on sediment.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: A1r
No change.

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                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
    Trend:   1.  Runoff and  Erosion  Control	   Subtrend:    1.3 Optimizing time of operations

                        Ecological Effect Rating I/
    TYPE OF EFFECT          IMF          2010                                       Factors/Rationale


    Aquatic                  +1              +1             E will  increase by 1985; 10-20% ^sediment; -l-turbidity

    Terrestrial               +1              +2             twildlife rood; wildlife environment enhanced
    Human Health              0              0            No  known human health effects
    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1) Potential ecological effects 2J:

    This subtrend assumes that  spring plowing  vs.  fall  plowing will  increase by 1935.  Aquatic effects result from 10-20%
    reductions in soil  loss, decreased  turbidity,  and  increased  species diversity.  Beneficial terrestrial results,
—|   besides saving topsoil, are increased  winter food  supply  for wildlife and provision of a more structured environment
en   for wildlife in winter.  This subtrend has no  know human  health  effects.


    (2) Research needs:

        a.  More research is needed for effectiveness  of  spring  plowing vs. fall plowing on flat and hilly terrains.
    I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=mc.jor ecological effect.  A plus  (+) rating denotes a  positive or
       beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.

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                                        Exhibit   1.3.   Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:  Crop Production
                                                                  Trend:  1. Runoff and Erosion Control
                                                               Subtrend:  1.3 Optinrzing Time of Operations
                                                                                                                                                      Page 1
                 Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
              Extensiveness          Extensiveness is unknown; however,
                                     based upon workshop rating in non-
                                     irrigated crop production, extensive-
                                     ness was moderate  in  1976 and expected
                                     to  increase  to important levels by 2010.
                                         1.  Evaluation Workshop  Ratings

                                         Panel  1:  1976  3 ,  1985  4  ,  2010
                                           1.  Dev.  Planning and  Research Assoc.,
                                              Environmental Implications of
                                              'rends  in Agriculture and Silvi-
                                              culture, Volume  1,  200  pp..  1977.
              Productivity          Optimizing time to solely minimize
                                    and reduce runoff can cause pro-
                                    ductivity decreases, when bad
                                    weather prevents planting.  Over-
                                    all productivity would likely remain
                                    unchanged, since some farmers would
                                    experience yield increases with
                                    optimum planting time.
              Resource  Base
Resource base is expected to
remain constant.
                                                                             No research data available.
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Surface
              Water -  Sediment
CT>
              Nutrients
              Pesticides
Spring planting at optimum time
can reduce sediment slightly.
Residues remaining through winter,
can further reduce soil loss.
Estimated reductions in soil with
spring plowing are 10-205!.
Slight reductions to no change are
expected for nutrients in surface
water.

Slight reductions to no change are
expected for pr-.ticide residues in
surface water
2.  Compared to fall  plowing,  spring
   plowing  can reduce soil  loss  by
   10%.   However,  fall plowing can be
   recommended with  areas  having  very
   wet springs with  nearly level
   soils of moderately fine to fine
   texture.  Delayed spring planting
   and plowing beyond optimum dates
   can Increase soil loss.
   U.S.  Dept.  of Agriculture/U.S.  En-
   vironmental Protection Agency,
   Control  of  Water Pollution from
   Cropland. Volume 1,  Report No.  ARS-
   H-5-1,  Washington, D.C., 1975.
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Ground
              Water
Relatively little change for nutri-
ents and pesticides entering ground
water.  However, leaching of N and
pesticides into ground water is not
likely to result in significant
losses with normal  applications 1n
most farming operations.
3.  Movement of pesticides into ground
   water from normal  applications 1n
   farming is an unlikely pathway of
   significant loss.
                                                                             4. 89% of N lost and 95% of P lost
                                                                                were associated with sediment
                                                                                losses.
3. Leonard, R.A., Bailey, G.W., and
   Swank, R.R., "Transport, detoxlfi-
   cati'.n, Fate, and Effects of Pes-
   ticides in Soil and Water Environ-
   ments, pp. 48-78.  In: Land Appli-
   cation of Waste Materials. Soil
   Conservation Society of Amerlca,
   Iowa, 1976.

4. Timmcns, D.R., and Holt, R.F., "Re-
   lation of Nutrient Content of Water
   to Agricultural Practices and
   Natu'"1! Vegetation," on-going re-
   search, North Central Soil Conserv.
   Res. Lab, Minnesota, 1976.
                              continued

-------
                                                           Exhibit  1.3.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                       Page 2
  Environmental
     Effects
             Conclusions
Research
Findings
                                                                                                                      References
                                                               5.  Over 97%  of N and  P  lost  from
                                                                  watersheds  was associated with
                                                                  sedlrcent  loss, primarily  1n  first
                                                                  2 months  after planting.
                                                                                       Burwell, R.E., and others,  "Nutri-
                                                                                       ent Transport in Surface Runoff as
                                                                                       Influenced by Soil Cover and
                                                                                       Seasonal Periods," Soil Sci. Soc..
                                                                                       Amer.  Proc., 1975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Slight reductions to no change in
erosion losses with this practice.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
No Change.

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
    Trend:    1.  Runoff  and  Erosion Control                        Subtrend:  1.4 Narrow rows
                        Ecological Effect Rating I/
    TYPE OF EFFECT          1WT         2010                                      Factors/Rationale


    Aquatic                   0              1             small 4- in sediment             	
    Terrestrial                0..             1             4-erosion; conserve topsoil
    Human Health              Q             .0             No significant effect
    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1)  Potential  ecological  effects 2/:

    Use  of  narrow  rows  will have  no  significant ecological effect in 1985 and only minor beneficial  aquatic and terrestrial
    effects in  2010.  Decreased soil  loss  is the primary beneficial effect.  Although herbicide and  insecticide use could
—'   increase slightly,  soil loss  is  also reduced slightly.  Thus, overall pesticide residue concentration should not
co   increase and there  will be no  significant  human health effect.


    (2)  Research needs:

        a.   Feasibility of cotton  and other row crops planted to narrower rows needs to be more fully researched.
   I/ Rating:  ±  (1  to  5)  where  l=minor,  3=moderate,  and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
      beneficial  effect;  a  negative (-)  rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

   2J Include  specification of  regional  implications as needed.

-------
                          Exhibit  1.4.   Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural  trends:  Crop Production
                                                   Trend:  1.  Runoff and Erosion Control
                                                          Subtrend:  i.4 Narrow Rows
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Extenslveness         Thi: practice is currently appli-
                      cable to corn and soybean production.
                      Since 1973, 253! of the farm operators
                      in one corn producing area have
                      turned to narrow row corn.  Exten-
                      slveness of use was estimated to be
                      moderate 1n 1976 and expected to
                      increase to major levels in 2010.
                                         1.  Horkshop Evaluation Ratings-
                                            Panel  1: 1976  3 ,  1985  4 .
                                            2010  5 .
                                           1.  Dev.  Planning and Res.  Assoc., En-
                                              vironmental  Implications in Agri-
                                              culture and  Silviculture,  200 pp.
                                                 ~
Productivity
Overall productivity on a per acre
basis will increase with narrow
row crops.  Increases of 10-205! have
occurred with narrow row soybeans
in field trails.  However, the in-
crease in yields that a farm opera-
tor will realize will depend on
previous crop management practices,
fert.iizer use, the type of crop
and climatic conditions.
3. Soybean yield increases up to 20%
   with narrow rows.   Practice is
   recommended for use on soils with
   a soybean yield not normally above
   40 bushels per acre.

4. Increased yields with soybeans in
   equidistant plantings.
3. "Solio-set soybeans can boost yield
   20 percent," Crops and Soils 28(4):
   22-23, 1976.
                                                                                                          4.  "Soybeans  planted  equidistantly  in-
                                                                                                             crease  yields,"  Crops  and  Soils,
                                                                                                             29(3):26,1976.
Resource Use          More plants per acre will increase
                      the total fertilizer requirement by
                      30-40% to meet the needs of the crop.
                      Slight increases are expected in
                      herbicide use but insecticide use
                      will not change with this practice.
                                         5.  With narrow row corn,  96% of  the
                                            farm operators  increased  nitrogen
                                            use by 33%.
                                                                                    5.  Reference  #2.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water
Narrow row crops will provide more
cover for the land and will decrease
soil losses slightly.  Nutrient
losses to surface water are not ex-
pected to decrease and could increase
slightly since fertilizer use will
increase (however, the number of
plants utilizing fertilizer nutrients
increases, so the potential for In-
creased nutrient loss 1s small).
There will be little or no effect on
pesticide losses.
6. Decrease in row spacing provides
   more complete cover and tests show
   some reduction in erosion during
   first 2 months of crop year.
   U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S.  En-
   vironmental Protection Agency,
   Control of Water Pollution from
   Cropland, Volume I. Report No.  ARS-
   H-5-1, Washington, D.C., 1975.
follutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Hater
No significant changes.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Soil
Slight reductions In erosion will
occur with more ground cover.
Pollutant Changes
In Media: A1r
No Change.

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
    Trend:   1. Runoff and Erosion Control	 	         Subtrend:   1.5 Winter cover crops
                        Ecological Effect Rating I]
    TYPE OF EFFECT          1985 ~:        ffiflj                                      Factors/Rationale


    Aquatic                   0             1             regional  areas,  esp. S.E.       	
    Terrestrial                0             1             lerosion,  conservation of topsoil
    Human Health              0            -J             Paraquat  use may \ -^-applicator hazards; tpesticide
    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1)  Potential  ecological effects 2/ :

    There are no significant ecological effects in 1935.   In 2010,  minor  beneficial aquatic and terrestrial effects result
    from small soil loss reductions.  The south and southeast will  benefit most from this practice.  With the elimination of
—•   fall plowing,  the need for winter cover crop is reduced.   Paraquat  use is expected to increase with winter cover crops
o   and presents a human health danger by direct contact  during  application  or through contact in field.


    (2) Research needs:

        a.  Research on interseeding with winter cover crops is  needed,

        b.  Research is needed on the increased use of paraquat, its  effects, and  alternatives to its use.

        c.  Development of farm implements for quicker, more efficient  spring planting operations is needed.
    I/  Rating:  ± (1 to 5)  wh?re l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive  or
       beneficial  effect;  a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2J  Include  specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                          Exhibit   1.5.    Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:  Crop  Production
                                                    Trend:   1.  Runoff and  Erosion  Control
                                                       Subtrend:   1,5 Winter  Cover Crops
                                                                                                                                  Page  1
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Extensiveness         Extfslveness of this practice is
                      minor in 1976 and will  show a slight
                      increase by 2010.
                                         1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings--

                                         Panel  1:  1976  1  ,  1985  2  .  2010 _2_

                                         Panel  2:  1976  1  ,  1985  1  t  2010 J_

                                         In  South  more than  90% use  winter
                                         cover  crops.
                                              Dev.  Planning and Res.  Assoc.,  En-
                                              vironmental  Implications  of Trends
                                              in Agriculture and Silviculture,
                                              200 ip.,  1977.
Productivity          Productivity values are variable.
                      If winter cover crops are .used as  a
                      second crop, total  production will
                      increase.  However  winter crops in
                      some climates will  reduce soil
                      moisture and decrease spring crop,
                      yields.
Resource Use          Fertilizer use could increase signif-
                      icantly (as much as 100 Ibs.  per acre)
                      if winter cover crops are used as a
                      second income crop.  If crops are
                      plowed under in the spring, then the
                      fertilizer nutrients will simply be
                      recycled and fertilizer use will not
                      increase.  Herbicide use may increase,
                      especially if no-till planting follows
                      in the spring.  Insecticide use will
                      not increase.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water - Sediment

Nutrients
Pesticides
Winter cover crops will tend to
reduce sediment losses slightly.
Nutrient losses to surface water
will decrease slightly if fertilizer
use is not increased, but total  year-
ly nutrient losses could increase 1f
yearly fertilizer use is significantly
increased.

No significant change is expected.
2. Winter cover crop reduced soil  con-
   centration 1n runoff by 18-58*.
                                                               3.  No reduction  in  runoff with  win-
                                                                  ter cover  crop was  found.
2.  Wishmeier,  W., "Relation of Field
   Plot Runoff to Management and
   Physical  Factors," Soil  Scl.  Soc.
   Am.  Proc.  30(2}:272^277, 1966.

3.  Mannering,  J.V. and Burwell,  R.E.,
   "Tillage  Methods to Reduce Runoff
   and  Erosion in the Corn  Belt,"
   ARS  Aqr.  Inf.  Bulletin,  #330,
   U.S.D.A.,  1968.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water - Nutrients
N leaching decreases with this
practice, however more fertilizer
may be used, and overall loss by
leaching would probably not be
significantly decreased.
4.  Winter cover of oats,  timothy rye
    reduced N leaching 40-60%.
   Frlnk, C.R.,  "The Nitrogen Cycle
   of a Dairy Farm," In:  Relationship
   of Agriculture to Soil  and Water
   Pollution, Cornell  Univ.,  1970.
                                                                                                                         continued  .  .  .

-------
                                                                          Exhibit   1.5.  (Continued)                                                   p
                 Environmental                                                               Research
                    Effects                       Conclusions                                Findings                                 References
               Pesticides            No significant change is  expected.
                                     However, leaching of pesticides is
                                     not likely to represent a-s1gnif-~"
                                     icant loss with normal  application
—i                                   rates in most management  practices.
ro             	__	
               Pollutant Changes     Erosion will  be reduced slightly          See  research findings for sed-
               in Media: Soil                                                  iment.
               Pollutant Changes     No change.
               in Media: Air

-------
                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in  Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:    2. Conservation Tillage	    Subtrend:   2.1  No-till
                    Ecological  Effect  Rating  I/
TYPE OF EFFECT          T95F2010                                       Factors/Rationale

        (Soil-Sediment)  +2             +3            isodiment;  low  E;  tend  to  tspecies diversity
Aquatic (Pesticide       -1             -1            pesticide use t; pesticide concentrations could increase	
           residues)                                                                                    ~"~~
Terrestrial               0              0            crop  residues t;   erosion;  negative effect on non-target animals
Human Health              0              0            pesticide  levels  still within safety limits; no effect
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological  effects  2/:

Aquatic and terrestrial effects are both beneficial  and adverse.   Aquatic  systems will benefit from reduced turbidity and
increased species diversity.  However, pesticide residues in surface  water could potentially be increased with no-till
and create adverse effects in the aquatic ecosystem.   Increased pesticide  use  can also have adverse effects on non-target
terrestrial life.  Retention of crop residues and reductions in erosion  will be beneficial terrestrial effects.  Human
health effects will not be significant since pesticide residues in surface water should still be within safety limits
even if they increase slightly with no-till.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Further research and education is needed for the optimum use  of  fertilizer and pesticides with no-tillage practices.

    b.  The effect of increased pesticide use with no-till on pesticide  losses to surface water should be determined.

    c.  Continued research is needed to develop and improve pesticides that are less  toxic to non-target organisms.
If Rating: ±  (1 to  5) vhere  l=minor,  3=moderate,  and  5=major  ecological  effect.  A  plus  (+)  rating  denotes  a  positive or
   beneficial effect; a negative  (-)  rating  denotes a  negative  or  adverse  effect.

2/ Include specification of  regional  implications as  needed.

-------
                          Exhibit  2.1   Environmental  assessment  of  selected  agricultural  trends:
                                                             Trend;   2.  Conservation Tillage
                                                           Subtrend:   2.1  No-tillage
                                      Croo  Production
                                                                       Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness         Approximately 2.6% of all  cropped
                      land was no-till  in 1977.   While
                      this practice is  expected  to in-
                      crease to limited use in 2010,
                      current projections (up to 55%  of
                      crops under no-till in 2010) seem
                      high.  Extensiveness may only be
                      10-20% in 2010.
 1.  Evaluation  Workshop  Ratings--

 Panel  I:  1976  __!_,  1985  1  .  2010 _2_

 Panel  2:  1976   1  ,  1935  1  ,  2010   1  .

 2.  No-till  is  estimated at  7.9 million
    acrjs  for  1977  (2.6%).

 3.  Percent  of  cropland  zero tilled
    may reach  55%  by 2010 (10% by
    1985).
 1.  Dev.  Planning  and  Research  Assoc.
    Environmental  Implications  of
    Trends  in  Agriculture and Silvi-
    culture. 200 pp..  1977.

 2.  "No-till Farmer,   Milwaukee,
    Wisconsin,  March,  1977.

 3.  U.S.  Congress,  "Alternative
    Futures  for U.S. Agriculture,"
    Committee  Print, 94th Congress,
    1st  Session, Sept.  1975.
Productivity          Productivity can remain unchanged,
                      increase by 10% or decrease by 12%.
                      The type of crop, climate,  and soil
                      will dictate the productivity values.
                      Multicropping practices will  Increase
                      with no-till, resulting in  Increased
                      productivity.
 4.  Yield  reductions  of  12% with  no-till
    alone  were  found.

 5.  No significant  decrease 1n  pro-
    ductivity.

 6.  10% increase in productivity  on
    soils  with  good drainage.   No In-
    crease on soils with poor drainage.

 7.  Botli increased  and decreased  yields
    are shown for no  till.

 8.  Yield  response  by no till is
    affected by crop  properties,  soils,
    climates, and pesticide effective-
    ness.   Multicropping is enhanced
    by no  till  and  could lead to  pro-
    duction Increases.   Other land,
    maintained  under  permanent  cover,
    can be brought  Into  production.
 4.  Putman,  J.,  Stipe,  S.,  and  McDivitt,
    J.,  A  Summary  of  the  Linear Pro-
    gramming Analysis for the Maunee
    Level  B  River  Basin Study,  pre-
    liminary working  paper, 120 pp.,
    1977.

 5.  Johnson, H., Shrader, W.D., and
    Timmons, J.  F.,  "Regional Develop-
    ment and Management of Land and
    Water  Resources within Iowa," on-
    going  research, Agric.  Exp. Station,
    Ames,  Iowa,  1976.

 6.  "No-till is  profitable on many soil
    types,"  Crops  and Soils 27(9): 7-9,
    1975.

 7.  U.S. Dept. of  Agriculture/U.S. En-
    vironmental  Protection Agency, Con-
    Lrol of  Water  Pollution from Crop-
    land.  Volume 1, Report No.  ARS-H-5-
    1,  Washington, D.C.,  1975.

 8.  Reference #3.
Resource Use          Fertilizer and herbicide use in-
                      creases by 15%, insecticide use by
                      11%.   An estimated 5 million acres
                      of land could be shifted to crop
                      production with no-till  and reduced
                      till  methods.  Labor costs  are re-
                      duced.  More water will  be  conserved
                      with  no-till, as much as 2  Inches
                      per year.
 9.  Fertilizer and herbicide use in-
    creese 15%, insecticide use in-
    creases by 11%.

10.  Fertilizer and herbicide use will
    Increase.   An estimated 5 million
    acres of land could  be shifted to
    crop production with no till and
    reduced tillage.   Labor will de-
    crease.
 9.  Reference 14.
10. Reference 13.
                                                                                                                               Continued  .  .  .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit  2.1.  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                       Page 2
Environmental Research
Effects Conclusions Findings
11. Increased N and pesticide re-
References
11. Reference #7.
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media: Surface
               Water - Sediment
               Nutrients
ro
on
               Pesticides
Sediment reductions of 50-902!
will result.
While large soil loss reductions -••
will tend to reduce nutrient losses,
fertilizer use will increase by 15%.
There will probably still tend to be
reductions in total nutrient loss,
but reduction will not be propor-
tional to reductions in soil loss.
N content of soil may also increase
from weathering of crop residues.

Effect of no till on pesticide losses
is not well documented.  Loss to sur-
face water is greater when the com-
pound 1s surface applied and not in-
corporated in the soil, and 11% more
insecticides and 15% more herbicides
will be used for no-till.  While re-
ductions of pesticides in surface
water could occur, current research
does not prove this.  Increased use
and surface application, even with
reduced soil loss with no-till, could
even cause slight increases in pes-
ticide losses.
12.  Sediment will  be reduced by
    58-69%.

13.  Soil  loss can  be reduced an aver-
    age of 502.   Individual  studies
    with no  till  show soil  losses  re-
    duced up to  985!.

14.  Reductions up  to 95% with no-till.
    Reductions will  be less  with in-
    creasing slopes and certain soils.
                                                                            15. Transfer of pesticides into run-
                                                                                off water is greater when the com-
                                                                                pound is surface-applied than when
                                                                                it is incorporated.

                                                                            16. The environmental effect of no-
                                                                                till and increased pesticide use
                                                                                is not known.  No till will  play
                                                                                an important part 1n reducing soil
                                                                                loss, but in contrast, laws and
                                                                                regulations relating to pesticide
                                                                                use could discourage further reduc-
                                                                                tions in tillage.
12.  Reference #4.


13.  Reference #3.




14.  Reference 17.
                                           15.  Leonard,  R.A.,  Bailey,  G.H.,  and
                                               Swank,  R.R.,  "Transport,  Detox-
                                               ification,  Fate,  and  Effects  of
                                               Pesticides  in Soil  and  Water  En-
                                               vironments,"  pp.  48-78.   In:  Land
                                               Application of  Waste  Materials,
                                               Soil  Cons.  Soc. Am.,  Iowa,  1976.

                                           16.  Reference #3.
              Pollutant Changes
              1n Media: Ground
              Water
Nitrates in ground water will show
no change to slight increases.
Pesticide loss to ground water
will not be significantly changed
with no-till practices.
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Soil
Erosion losses will be decreased
50-90%.
 See research finding on sediment.
                                                                                                                                         Continued . . .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit  2.1.  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                             Page 3
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                        References
              Residues
ro
01
                                     Crop  residues will  increase  which
                                     may result  in increased  N  loss to
                                     the soil  or available  for  runoff.
                                     Additionally, residues may provide
                                     a  hiding  place  for  pests and In-
                                     crease  the  incidence of  pests.
               Pollutant  Changes
               in Media:  Air
With some pesticides, increased
volatilization will occur with
surface applications.  The vapor
pressure, molecular weight, and
other properties of a pesticide
will determine the extent of va-
porization.
17.  Survace application  subjects  the
    pesticide to  potential  photo-
    degradation,  and  a greater  poten-
    tial  for volatilization.
                                                                                   17.  Reference #15.

-------
                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:  2,  Conservation Tillage	         Subtrend:   2.2  Reduced  tillage
                     Ecological  Effect  Rating  If
TYPE OF EFFECT          W?          M^                                    Factors/Rationale
        (Soil -sediment)  +2             +3            less  effective  than  no-till,  but  higher  E values
Aquatic (Pesticide       -1             -1            potential  for t pesticides  in water      _
           residues)                                -
Terrestrial               0           _ 0_           improved  soil;  tpesticide use on  non-target organisms

Human Health              0              0            pesticide  residue  levels still within  safety  limits
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential  ecological  effects  2/:

Reduced tillage (with crop residues remaining) is less effective than  no-till  in  reducing  soil loss, but extensiveness of
reduced  tillage will be greater.   Therefore, the intensity of ecological  effects are comparable for the two practices.
Sediment reductions will reduce turbidity and increase species diversity.   However,  the  potential for  increased pesticide
residues in surface water could have adverse effects on the aquatic ecosystem.  Crop residues remaining on the soil and
decreased soil loss are beneficieal to the terrestrial system, but increased  pesticide use will have adverse effects on
non-target organisms.  Human health effects will not be significant.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Research should determine the optimum amounts of residue to leave  on  surface and to  incorporate into the soil
        with various climatic conditions, soils, and tillage practices.

    b.  Research is needed to determine the long term effect of conservation  tillage on  soil integrity.

    c.  The effect of increased pesticide use with reduced tillage on  pesticide losses to  surface water needs to be
        investigated.
I/ Rating: ±  (1 to  5) where  l=minor,  3=moderate,  and  5=major ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial effect; a  negative  (-)  rating  denotes a negative  or adverse  effect.

2/ Include specification of  regional  implications as  needed.

-------
                                      Exhibit   2.2.     Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
                                                                      Trend:  2. Conservation Tillage
                                                                      Subtrend:  2.2 Reduced Tillage
                                    Crop Production
                                                                                                                                                     Page 1
                 Environmental
                   Effects
ro
CD
                                                  Conclusions
               Research
               Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
               Extensiveness          In  1977,  an  estimated  58.8 million
                                     acres  (19% of  total  cropped acres)
                                     will  be  reduced  tilled.  An addi-
                                     tional 40 million acres will be
                                     classified as  less  tilled.  Less
                                     till  includes  chisel plowing, disc^
                                     ing once  Instead of twice, and
                                     planting  in  rough ground.

                                     In  2010,  a total of 40% of all crop-
                                     land  may  be  classified as reduced
                                     tilled.
1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings-
Panel 1: 1976  3 ;  1985  4 ;  2010
Panel 2: 1976
1985  1 ;  2010
2. Reduced till  will  be used on 58.8
   million acres in 1977.

3. In 2010, 55% of cropland may be no
   tilled and 40% reduced  tilled.
1.  Dev.  Planning and Research Assoc.,
   Environmental Implications of
   Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
   culture, Volume I, 200 pp.. 1977.

2.  "No-till Farmer", Milwaukee,
   Wisconsin, March 1977.

3.  U.S.  Congress, "Alternative
   Futures for U.S. Agriculture" and
   "Minimum Tillage," Comnittee Print
   94th  Congress, 1st Session, Sept.
   1975.
               Productivity           Productivity can remain unchanged,
                                     increase or decrease  with reduced
                                     tillage.   Hulticropping practices
                                     will  tend  to increase with reduced
                                     till,  causing  increased productivity
                                     per acre.  Not all crops or soil
                                     types  are  suited to reduced tillage.
4. With reduced till  alone,  production
   will decrease an average  of 9.5%.
   Witi' contour and reduced  till  to-
   gether, yields will  decrease an
   average of 16.5%.

5. Productivity with reduced till  is
   variable with different crops  and
   soils.   Multicropping ?ractices will
   increase with reduced till  resulting
   in increased productivity for those
   acres.

6. Crop yields with reduced  tillage
   are as  good as, and  sometimes  higher
   than, those with plow-based systems.
                        4.  Putman,  J.,  Stipe,  $.,  and
                           McDivitt,  J.,  A Summary of the
                           Linear Programmjng  Analysis for
                           the Maumee Level  B  River Basin
                           Study, preliminary  working paper,
                           T20pp., 1977.

                        5.  Reference  #3.

                        6.  U.S. Dept. of  Agriculture/U.S.
                           Environmental  Protection Agency,
                           Control  of Water Pollution From
                           Cropland,  Volume 1, Report No.
                           ARS-H-5-1, Washington,  D.C.. 1975.
              Resource Use           Fertilizer use will  Increase
                                     slightly.  Herbicide use 1s up
                                     (0.6%)  and insecticide use in-
                                     creases by 8.6%.  An estimated  5
                                     million acres of  land will be shifted
                                     to  crop production with reduced and
                                     no-tillage methods.  Labor output
                                     will  decrease.  Energy to plant
                                     crops decrease, but  increased
                                     energy will  be used  in manufacture
                                     of  Increased fertilizers and in-
                                     secticides.  Some soil moisture
                                     will  be conserved with reduced
                                     tillage.
7. Fertilizer use decreases 5%, insec-     7. Reference #4.
   tlside use increases by 8.6%, and
   herbicide use increases slightly,
   0.57,.

8. Fertilizer  use and pesticide use       8. Reference #5.
   increase with reduced tillage
   methods.  More land may be con-
   verted to agriculture with reduced
   and no-till practices (an estimated
   5 ml!1Ion acres).

9. Fertilizer and pesticide use will       9. Reference #6.
   Increase.
                                                                                                                                     Continued . . .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit  2.2.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                    Page  2
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media:  Surface
              Water Sediment
              Nutrients
              Pesticides
                      Sediment will  be reduced  an average
                      of 14%.   Reduced tillage  Is less
                      effective than no-till  in control-
                      ling soil loss.
                                    There will  probably be reductions in
                                    total nutrient loss to surface water,
                                    but reduction will  not be proportional
                                    to reductions in soil  loss
                                    Effect of reduced tillage on pes-
                                    ticide loss is not well documented.
                                    Loss to surface water is greater
                                    when a pesticide 1s surface applied
                                    and total pesticide use is 9% greater
                                    for reduced till.  While reductions
                                    of pesticides 1n surface water could
                                    occur, there 1s not enough research
                                    data to support this.
                                         10.  Sediment will  be reduced by 14%.

                                         11.  Conservation tillage is less
                                             effective than no-till  in reduc-
                                             ing soil less.
                                                               12.  Transfer  of  pesticides  into  run-
                                                                   off  water is  greater when compound
                                                                   is surface applied.  More pesti-
                                                                   cide residues are  lost  in runoff
                                                                   water than in soil sediment  loss.

                                                               13.  The  environmental  effects of re-
                                                                   uuced tillage on pesticide res-
                                                                   idues 1s  not  known.
10. Reference #4.

11. Reference #6.
                                                                                    12.  Leonard,  R.A.,  Bailey,  G.W., and
                                                                                        Swank,  R.R.,  "Transport, detox-
                                                                                        ification,  fate,  and  effects of
                                                                                        pesticides  in soil  and  water en-
                                                                                        vironments,"  pp.  48-78.  In: Land
                                                                                        Application of  Waste  Materials,
                                                                                        Soil  Cons.  Soc. Am.,  Iowa,  1976.

                                                                                    13.  Reference #3.
MD
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Ground
Water
Nitrates in ground water will  show
no change to slight increases.
Pesticide levels in ground water
will not be significantly changed
with reduced tillage.
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Soil
                      Erosion losses decrease an estimated
                      14!!.   Wind erosion losses will  also
                      decrease slightly.  Crop residues
                      increase,which lead to increased  N
                      available to the soil  for leaching
                      and runoff.  Residues  on soil  also
                      increase the incidence of pests.
                                         See research findings  on sediment.
              Pollutant Changes
              1n Media: A1r
                      Surface applications of some pes-
                      ticides types leads to increased
                      volatilization losses.  The vapor
                      pressure, molecular weight, and
                      other chemical properties of a
                      pesticide will determine the extent
                      of vaporization.
                                             Surface applications  of pesticides
                                             subject tne pesticide to a  greater
                                             potential  for volatilization.
14.  Reference #12.

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
    Trend:   3. Improved Water Application                       Subtrend:  3.1 Furrow basins
                        Ecological Effect Rating  I/
    TYPE OF EFFECT          B5F2010                                      Factors/Rationale

    Aquatic                  -2             -3            return  flow  into surface water, -(-nutrients, tsediment, etc.

    Terrestrial              -2             -3            tsalinity  build-up in soil
    Human Health             -1             ~1            4-in drinking water quality; potential for  tnitrates
    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1) Potential ecological effects 2/:

    Furrow basins may be the least efficient method of irrigation.   Nutrients, sediment, pesticide residues in surface water
    tend to be greater for this irrigation method.   For these  reasons, aquatic, terrestrial and human health effects were
^  judged adverse.   (If return flow is controlled, Subtrend 3.4,  then aquatic effects would be 0.)  Human health effects
0  result from decreased quality of drinking water, and potential  increases  in nitrates.


    (2) Research needs:

        a.  The effects of salinity on human health and on animal  populations needs further investigation.

        b.  Investigation of irrigation methods and quality of return flows  is needed.

        c.  The feasibility of water renovation through filtering  and desalting should be determined.

        d.  The feasibility of diverting return flows to wildlife  preserves  or other  productive use  should be
            investigated.
    \J  Rating:  ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus  (+)  rating  denotes  a positive or
       beneficial  effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2J  Include  specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                          Exhibit  3.1.     Environmental  assessment cf selected  agricultural  trends:
                                                     Trend:   3.  Improved  Water Application
                                                         Subtrend:   ~.l Furrow Basins
                                                                                Crop  Production
                                                                                                                                        Page  1
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Extenslveness         In 1969, 50? of Irrigated cropland
                      used furrow basins.   Extensiveness
                      in 1976 is not known.   Evaluation
                      workshop ratings indicate that signif-
                      icant improvement is not likely to
                      occur with improved  furrow basin
                      management.
                                         1.  Evaluation  Workshop  Ratings—

                                         Panel  2:  1976   1  ;  1985  0  ;  2010 _0_

                                         (Reflects  improvement with  use  of
                                         furrov  basins).

                                         2.  In  1969,  19.2.  million  acres  (50*
                                            of  all  irrigated  crops)  were irri-
                                            gated  by  furrow  basins.
                                           1.  Dev.  Planning and Research Assoc.,
                                              Environmental  Implications of
                                              Trends  in Agriculture and  Silvi-
                                              culture,  Volume I, 200 pp., 1977.

                                           2.  U.S.  Bureau of Census, Census of
                                              Agriculture, 1969, Volume  5,
                                              Special  Reports,  Part 15,  Graphic
                                              Summary,  1971.
Productivity          Yields from Irrigated croplands are
                      higher than U.S. average yields.
                      Research data showing specific yield
                      increases contributed by furrow bas-
                      in irrigation is not available. :
                                         3.  Yield  from irrigated  cropland  is
                                            115  higher in  the  East and 32%
                                            higher in  the  West than  U.S.
                                            averages.
                                                                                    3.  Reference  #2.
Resource Use          Fertilizer, herbicide, and insec-
                      ticide use remain unchanged.  Water
                      use for furrow irrigation is 2.06
                      acre feet of water per acre.  Ef-
                      ficiency of furrow basin Irrigation
                      is 35%.
                                         4.  Fui row basin  use  2.06  acre  feet
                                            of water per  acre.

                                         5.  Efficiency  of furrow basin  irri-
                                            gation is 35%,  less  than  that of
                                            sprinkler or  drip irrigations.
                                           4.  Reference #2.

                                           5.  Jensen,  M.E.,  Scientific Irrigation
                                              Scheduling for Salinity Control  of
                                              Irrigation Return Flows, U.S.  En-
                                              vironmental  Protection Agency,
                                              1975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Certain practices must be used with
furrow basins to reduce sediment and
associated sediment materials (nu-
trlants, pesticides).   These prac-
tices are as follows:

1. Use only on flat or very gentle
   slopes;
2. Soil should have low Infiltration
   rates;
3. Land grading is essential;
4. Apply water at slower rates to
   reduce erosion, water logging,
   and improve efficiency.
5. Furrow stream flow should be
   minimal;
6. Use of benching, diagonal, or
   contour furrows will reduce
   erosion;
7. Slopes of furrows should be very
   gentle;
8. Lining of furrow drops with con-
   crete flumes or other material
   reduce soil loss.
9. Irrigations should be scheduled.
6. Landgrading is essential  for furrow
   irrigation.  To avoid excessive
   erosion 1n irrigating with furrows,
   the slope of the furrows  should not
   exceed 2%.  Contour and benched fur-
   rows reduce erosion potential.   Con-
   crete-lined ditches, or concrete
   or metal flumes should be used  for
   conveying water down slopes to  re-
   cess sediment losses.

7. Furrows should be used on fairly
   flat land with soil that has low
   infiltration rates.  Application
   rates should not be too rapid and
   minimal furrow stream flow should
   be practiced.

8. Current Irrigation practices are
   not efficiency.  Efficiency In-
   creases with scheduling,  rate of
   application, and amount of water
   applied.  With furrow basins, 1t
   Is difficult to measure amount  of
   water applied.
6. Booker, L.J., Surface Irrigation,
   FAO, Italy, 1974:
                                                                                                          7.  Jenke, A.L.,  Evaluation of Salinity
                                                                                                             Created  by  irrigation Return  Flows,
                                                                                                             U.S.  Environmental  Protection
                                                                                                             Agency,  127 pp.,  1974.
                                                                                                          8.  Jensen,  M.E.,  Scientific  Irrigation
                                                                                                             Scheduling  for Salinity Control  of
                                                                                                             Irrigation  Return  Flows,  U.S.  En-
                                                                                                             vironmental  Protection Agency.
                                                                                                             91  pp.,  1975.

                                                                                                                       Continued  .  .  .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit  3.1.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                    Page 2
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                    References
                                    These practices for furrow basins
                                    will reduce sediment loss and asso-
                                    ciated nutrient losses greatly in
                                    some areas.  However with some lands,
                                    it is virtually impossible to reduce
                                    sediment in furrow irrigation to the
                                    extent sediments and other suspended
                                    solids in return flow will meet water
                                    quality standards.  In general, sed-
                                    iment and associated losses are
                                    greater for furrow basins than
                                    sprinkler or subsurface irrigations.
                                          9.  Although  sediment yields can be
                                             reJtced in  the  Yahima Valley with
                                             improved  soil and water applica-
                                             tion  methods, it is  still virtual-
                                             ly impossible to reduce erosion
                                             in the furrow irrigation system
                                             to the extent that sediment and
                                             related contaminants in return
                                             flows will  meet water quality
                                             standards for that region.
                                           9. Carl He, B.L., "Sediment Control
                                              in Yahima Valley."  In: Managing
                                              Irrigated Agriculture to Improve
                                              Water Quality, Proc. of National
                                              Conf. on Managing Irrigated Agri-
                                              culture to Improve Water Quality,
                                              Colorado State Univ., 1972.
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Ground
              Water
CO
PO
Reductions in ground water and asso-
ciated pollutants can be obtained
with furrow basins.  However, these
reductions are associated with the
management practices listed above.
If these practices are followed,
ground water pollution from furrow
irrigation will be comparable to
other irrigation methods.  However,
research data shows they are not
routinely followed, and considerable
ground water pollution does occur.
Improved furrow irrigation will  not
significantly reduce ground water
pollutants without scheduling, and
improved irrigation facilities.
10.  The most abused practice  in  irri-
    gation is excessive water appli-
    cations and  tends  to be more
    serious with furrow irrigation
    that sprinkler irrigation schedul-
    ing also reduces potential ground
    water pollution, but 1t is not
    routinely practiced.  (See 3.5
    Irrigation Scheduling for Poten-
    tial Benefits.)
10.  References #7 and
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Soil
Salinity tends to be greater for
furrow irrigation compared to
sprinkler irrigation.
11.  Salinity is greater for furrow
    irrigation compared to sprinkler
    irrigation.

12.  Increastd spot salinity occurs
    with furrow basins, because of
    low spots and high  spots in the
    land.   Soluble salts tend to con-
    centrate in the surface and cen-
    ter of beds causing decreased
    yields.
11. Salinity in Water Resources,
    Proc. of the 15th Annual Western
    Resources Conference at the Univ.
    of Colorado, Merriam, publishers,
    1974.

12. Reference #6.
              Pollutant Changes
              1n Media: Air
No Change.

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
CO
CO
Trend: 3. Improved Water Application
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1985
-1
-1
_0_
Effect Ratinq I/
2010
-1
-1
,-1
Subtrend: 3'
land grading + furrow
due to salinity
long term effect from
.2 Land grading
Factors /Rationale
basins = -(-pollutants

t nitrate concentration
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:

Land grading will be used with furrow basins,  thus  pollutants  from furrow basins will decrease in intensity.  Salt
accumulation will be less when land grading is used with  furrow  basins.  There is still a long-term effect of nitrate
concentrations increasing in surface waters even  with  land  grading with furrow basins.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  The effects of salinity on human health and on animal  populations needs further investigation.

    b.  Investigation of irrigation methods and quality of  return flows is needed.

    c.  The feasibility of water renovation through filtering  and desalting  should be determined.

    d.  The feasibility of diverting return flows to wildlife  preserves or other productive use should be
        investigated.
    I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus  (+) rating denotes a  positive  or
       beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                          Exhibit   3.2.   Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop  Production
                                                     Trend:  3. Improved Water Application
                                    Subtrend:  3.2 Land Grading (analyzed as an irrigation practice only)
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Extenslveness         Land grading is Important in irri-
                      gated crop production and will in-
                      crease in use by 2010.  Actual ex-
                      tens Iveness in irrigated crop pro-
                      duction is unknown.
                                         1.  Evaluation Workshop  Ratings—

                                         Panel  ?.:  1976  4  ;  1985   5  ; 2010
                                           1.  Dev.  Planning  and  Research Assoc.,
                                              Environmental  Implications of
                                              Trends  in  Agriculture and Silvi-
                                              culture, Volume  1,  200  pp.,  1977.
Productivity          Productivity will increase with the
                      use of land grading.  The increase
                      will depend on the crop, soil, irri-
                      gation practices, and other crop
                      management practices.
                                         2.  Land grading  tends  to  reduce con-
                                            centrated areas  of  salinity seeps
                                            and increase  crop yields.

                                         3.  Waterlogging  of  land decreases
                                            with land grading and  increases
                                            land productivity.
                                           2.  Booker,  L.G.,  Surface  Irrigation,
                                              FAO,  1974.

                                           3.  Jenke, A.L.  Evaluation of  Salinity
                                              Created  by  Irrigation  Return  Flows,
                                              U.S.  Environmental  Protection
                                              Agency,  127  pp.,  1974.
Resource Use          Total irrigation water 1n furrow
                      basins can be reduced up to 40%
                      with land grading and water measur-
                      ing devices.   Reduction of total
                      water applied will  reduce the solu-
                      ble fertilizer requirement.  Pes-
                      ticide requirement will remain un-
                      changed to a  slight decrease.
                      Energy and labor requirement in-
                      crease with land grading.
                                         4.  Reductions  up  to  40-50%  1n water        4. Reference #3.
                                            use may occur  following  leveling
                                            and the installation  of  simple
                                            water measuring devices.  Decreased
                                            water use will decrease  soluble
                                            fertilizer  requirements.

                                         5.  Labor requirement for furrow irri-      5. Reference #2.
                                            gation is greater witl, land  grading
                                            and other management  practices.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Elimination of excessive water appli-
cation in irrigation causes decreases
in soil erosion, nutrient and pes-
ticide losses.
6.  Excessive water In irrigation In-
   creases sediment losses.

7.  Land grading decreases  soil  losses.
6. Reference #3.


7. Reference # 2.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water
Slight reductions in ground water
and associated pollutants will
occur with lano grading.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Concentrated salinity areas, re-
sulting from high and low spots 1n
Irrigated land are reduced.
   Soluble salts tend to concentrate
   1n the surface and center of beds
   (irrigation).  Landing grading
   levels the land and reduces spot
   salinity.
                                                                                                          8.  Reference  #2.
Pollutant Changes
In Media: A1r
No Change.

-------
                                  Evaluation Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:    3.  Improved Water Application	Subtrend:   3.3 Sprinklers
                    Ecological  Effect  Rating  I/
TYPE OF EFFECT           19"%?          EEOi                                      Factors/Rationale


Aquatic                  -1             -2            Aground water supply  (regional)	
Terrestrial              -1             -1             -wildlife  habitat; tsoil salinity
Human Health              0           	0_           potential for t nitrates is less
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects  2/:

Aquatic and terrestrial effects are adverse with sprinkler  irrigation.  Groundwater supplies can and are seriously
reduced with sprinkler systems.  Surface water pollution  will  still occur with sprinklers, but will be less for
sprinklers than for furrow basins.  Soil salinity will  continue  with sprinklers, and wildlife habitat is destroyed with
sprinkler system installation (fence rows are taken  out).   The potential for increased nitrate concentrations in
ground water is less with this practice, so human health  effects will not be significant.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  The use of effluents in sprinkler irrigation should be investigated.

    b.  Research on efficient irrigation practices should include  investigation of ground water depletions.
I/ Rating: ±  (1 to  5) where  l=minor,  3=moderate, and  5=major  ecological  effect.  A  plus  (+)  rating  denotes  a  positive or
   beneficial effect; a  negative  (-)  rating denotes a negative  or adverse  effect.

2/ Include specification of  regional  implications  as  needed.

-------
                          Exhibit   3.3.    Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:
                                                     Trend:   3.  Imrpo/ed  Water Application
                                                          Subtrend:  3.3  Sprinklers
                                                                               Crop Production
                                                                                                                                 Page 1
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Extensiveness         In 1969, 7.2 million acres (18.8% of
                      all irrigated cropland) used sprink-
                      ler irrigation.  Extensiveness in
                      1976 1s not known,  but estimated  to
                      have increased since 1969.
                                         1.  Evaluation  Workshop  Ratings-

                                         Panel  2:  1976   1  ;  1985  2  ;  2010  2  .

                                         2.  Sprinkler irrigation was used on
                                            7.2 million acres  in 1969.
                                           1.  Dev.  Planning and Research Assoc.,
                                              Environmental Implications of
                                              Trends  in Agriculture and Sifv1_-
                                              culture, 200 pp., 1977.

                                           2.  U.S.  Bureau of Census, Census of
                                              Agriculture, 1969, Volume 5,
                                              Special Reports, Part 15, Graphic
                                              Summary, 1971.
Productivity          Yields from irrigated cropland are
                      higher t.han U.S.  average yields.
                      Use of highly saline water in sprink-
                      lers can leave toxic, often lethal
                      salt deposits on leaves and cause'
                      sprinklers to clog.  Additionally,
                      some crops subject to fungi are
                      aggravated by high-moisture condi-
                      tions with sprinkler irrigation.
                      These conditions will reduce yields.
                                         3.  Yield  from  irrigated cropland is
                                            11% higher  in  the  East and 32%
                                            higher in the  West  than U.S.
                                            average.

                                         4.  Highly saline  waters can  leave
                                            tcx c  deposits on  leaves.  High
                                            moisture conditions of sprinkler
                                            irrigation  can aggrevate  diseases
                                            as  fungi in some crops.
                                                                                   3. Reference #2.
                                           4.  Jenke, A.L.,  Evaluation of Salinity
                                              Created by  Irrigation Return  Flows,
                                              U.S.  Environmental  Protection
                                              Agency, 127 pp.,  1974.
Resource Use          Fertilizer, herbicides, and insec-
                      ticide use remain constant.  Sprink-
                      ler irrigation uses 1.39 acre feet
                      of water per acre, considerably less
                      than furrow irrigation.  Drip irri-
                      gation (0.5% of all irrigated acres
                      in 1980) is even more efficient than
                      sprinkler irrigation.  Efficiency
                      with sprinklers range from 49-58%
                      efficiency.  Initial costs and energy
                      requirements are higher for sprinkler
                      than furrow methods.
                                         5.  Sprinkler-irrigation  uses  1.39
                                            acre feet of water per  acre.

                                         6.  Sprinkler efficiency  in twelve
                                            event:   ranged  from 49-58% effi-
                                            ciency.   Drip irrigation is the
                                            most efficient  irrigation  method
                                            but only 0.5% of  all  irrigated
                                            acres will  use this practice  In
                                            198C.
                                           5.  Reference  #2.
                                           6.  Jensen,  M.  E.,  Scientific  Irriga-
                                              tion  Scheduling for  Salinity  Con-
                                              trol  of  Irrigation Return  Flows,
                                              U.S.  Environmental Protection
                                              Agency,  91  pp., 1975.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Potential soil loss and associated
pollutants can be reduced with
sprinkler irrigation If certain
practices are used.  These practices
are as follows:

1. Use on soils with high infiltra-
   tion rates.  It can be used on
   sloping lands with rough and thin
   soils.
2. Application rate should be slow.
3. Know the amount of Irrigation
   w^ter applied.
4. Use irrigation scheduling for
   maximum efficiency and to reduce
   potential soil loss.
5. Do not irrigate with sprinkler on
   very windy days.
7.  Slow application of water by sprink-
   ler methods reduce erosion.   Sprink-
   ler can be used on soils with high
   water uptake, on sloping lands,  and
   on rough, thin soils.   Irrigation
   scheduling will improve sprinkler
   efficiency and reduce erosion po-
   tential and surface runoff.

8.  Sprinkler systems tend to reduce
   excessive water applications, thus
   reducing runoff potential.  It 1s
   easier to measure amount of water
   applied by sprinkler methods.
                                                                                                          7. Reference #4.
                                                                                                          8.  Reference  #6.
                                                                                                                        Continued

-------
                                                                         Exhibit  3.3.    (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                      Page  2
                Environmental
                   Effects
              Pollutant Changes
              1n Media: Ground
              Water
CO
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Soil
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media: Air
                                                 Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
                                    In general surface runoff, soil
                                    loss and associated pollutants are
                                    less for sprinkler irrigation
                                    compared to furrow.
While ground water pollutants  tend
to be less with sprinkler irrigation
compared to furrow, potential  pollu-
tants can be further reduced with
irrigation scheduling, and other
efficiency practices (See 3.5  Irri-
gation scheduling for details).
Sprinkler irrigation cannot be re-
lied upon to significantly reduce
ground pollutants without these
practices.
 9.  Traditional  methods  to  improve
    irrigation management will  not
    result in futther changes  in
    irrigation management unless
    water costs  increase substantial-
    ly.   Over the past 20 years,  irri-
    gation efficiency has not  increased.
    Improvement  of salinity  problems,
    anc1  ground water problems  will  de-
    pend upon irrigation scheduling
    ano  improved irrigation  facili-
    ties.
                                            9.  Reference #  6.
Salinity tends to be slightly less
for sprinkler irrigation compared  to
furrow.  However, each year productive
agriculture land is lost to salinity
regardless of irrigation method.
10.  Salinity is  less  for  sprinkler
    irrigation compared to  furrow
    irrigation.

11.  Each year productive  agriculture
    land is lost to salinity.   Crop
    production is reducea on one-
    quarter of the irrigated acreage
    in Western U.S.
10.  Salinity in Water Resources.  Proc.
    of the 15th Annual  Western Re-
    sources Conf.  at the Univ. of Colo.
    Merriam publishers, 1974.

11.  Law,  J.P., and others,  "The need
    for implementing irrigation return
    flow  quality control."   In: Manag-
    ing Irrigated  Agriculture  to  Im-
    prove Water Quality, Proc. of the
    Nat.  Conf. on  Managing  Irrigated
    Agriculture to Improve  Water
    Quality, 1972.
No significant changes will  result.
On windy days, water loss can occur,
but will not adversely affect the
air.

-------
                                      Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in  Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
    Trend:   3. Improved Water Application	    Subtrend:    3.4  Recycling & controlling tail water

                         Ecological  Effect Rating  I/
    TYPE OF EFFECT          T§55"2010                                       Factors/Rationale


    Aquatic                  +2             +3            4-water requirements;  4-pollutants in water

    Terrestrial              -1             -1            disposal  of tailwater pollutants; soil salinity not affected
    Human Health             +1            -+l            assumes  proper  processing, further water degradation will not occur
    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1) Potential ecological effects  2/:

    Aquatic effects will be beneficial with control  of tailwater.   Irrigation water requirements will be reduced and
    pollutants in surface water will be decreased.   Terrestrial  effects  are  adverse since soil salinity will not be
w  significantly affected with this practice, and  terrestrial  pollutants  may potentially be  increased with the disposal
00  of tailwater pollutants.  Minor beneficial human health effects will result with  proper processing of tailwater.


    (2) Research needs:

        a.  Continued research is needed on the proper treatment of tailwater and  on  the disposal of  tailwater and
            subsurface drainage wastes.
    I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) hhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
       beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                          Exhibit   3.4.    Environmental  assessment of  selected  agricultural  trends:
                                                     Trend:   3.  Improved  Water Application
                                              Subtrend:   3.4 Recycling  and Controlling  Tailwater
                                                                                Crop Production
                                                                                                                                     Page  1
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Extensiveness         Extensiveness 1n 1976 is not known.
                      However, based on workshop rating,
                      this practice will  increase to im-
                      portant levels by 2010.

                      Control of the total  Irrigation
                      return flow (surface  tailwater
                      and subsurface drainage  waters)
                      will be considered in this subtrend.
                                         1.  Evaluation Workshop Rating-

                                         Panel 2: 1976  2 ;  1985  3 ;  2010  4
                                           1.  Cev.  Planning and  Research Assoc.
                                              Environmental Implications of
                                              Trends  in Agriculture  and Silvi-
                                              culture, Volume  1,  200 pp.,  1977.
Productivity
Tailwate" will  have increased
concentrations  of sediment,
nutrients, and  pesticides; how-
ever, productivity will  not be
significantly changed with proper
treatment of recycled tailwater.
2.  Concentration of salt,  and  N03-N
   is greatly increased  in tailwater.
   However,  at times the chemical
   quality of subsurface drainage
   water is  better than  that of  the
   irrigation water diverted at  fur-
   ther  points down river for  irri-
   gation.

3.  Concantration of salts and  nutri-
   ents  is several times greater in
   ground water than in  initial  Irri-
   gation water.

4.  Concentration of salts in return
   flow  can be greatly increased.
2. Carter, D.L., "Irrigation return
   flows in southern Idaho," pp.  47-
   53.  In: Managing Irrigated Agri-
   culture to Improve Water Quality,
   Proc. of Nat. Conf.  on Managing
   Irrigated Agriculture to Improve
   Water Quality, 1972.

3. Oenke, A.L., Evaluation of Salinity
   Created by Irrigation Return Flows,
   U.S. Environmental Protection
   Agency, 127 pp.,  1974.

4. Salinity in Water Resources, Proc.
   of the 15th Annual Western Re-
   sources Conf. at  the Univ. of
   Colorado, MerHman publi$hers,
   1973.
Resource Use
 Fertilizer,  insecticide, and her-
 bicide  use remains constant.  Water
 use can be decreased as much as 30%
 with  reuse of return flows 1n Irri-
 gation.
5. About 3556 of applied  irrigation          5.  Reference  #3.
   water is return flow.

6. 50^ of to*.al input water becomes         6.  Reference  #2.
   subsurface drainage water.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
 Sediment, and associated nutrients
 will  be  trapped  if surface water is
 collected.   This  reduces sediment
 and  pollutant loadings of rivers 1f
 the  water is not  returned to the
 rivers.  Surface  runoff water qual-
 ity  will have increased sediment,
 but  salt concentration does not dif-
 fer  from Initial  Irrigation water.
7. Surface runoff quality did  not dif-
   fer from that of the irrigation
   water except for sediment concen-
   tration.

8. Nutrients, pesticides, sediment,
   and salts will be c nfined  to the
   field by control of tailwater.
                                                                                                          7.  Reference #2.
                                                                                                         8.  Reference #  3.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Ground
Water
 Cont"il  of  ground water can signif-
 icantly  decrease the  pollutant
 loadings  of a  river.  The ground
 water  will  have high  salt concen-
 trations.   Before this water can be
9. Subsurface drainage water should be
   treated, diluted, or diverted to
   sinks, and settling basins before
   reuse.
                                                                                                          9.  Reference  #3.
                                                                                                                      Continued  .  .  .

-------
Exhibit  3.4.   (Continued)
                                                                              Page  2
Environmental
Effects
Ground Water
(Continued)
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Air
Conclusions
diverted back to the river or to
agriculture, it should be diluted
with large amounts of incoming
water, or diverted to sinks or
settling basins. This will re-
duce sediment and salt concentra-
tions to reasonable limits.
Soil salinity will not be affected
by recycling and controlling tall-
water.
No Change.
Research
Findings
10. Recovered drainage waters can
readily be returned to the irriga-
t^on supply after settling, treat-
ment for pollutant removal, or
diluted to minimize the detri-
mental effects.


References
10. Law, J.P. and others, "The need
for implementing irrigation re-
turn flow quality control," pp.
1-17. In: Managing Irrigated
Agriculture to Improve Water
Quality, Proc. of Nat. Conf. on
Managing Irrigated Agriculture
to Improve Water Quality, 1972.



-------
                                  Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 3. improved Water Application
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1985
+1
0
0
Effect Rating I/
2010
+1
+1
0
Subtrend: 3.5 Irrigation scheduling and efficiency
Factors/Rationale
-(•water use; ^-pollutants
small 4- soil salinity

 SUMMARY  STATEMENT

 (1)  Potential  ecological  effects  2/:

 Aquatic  effects will be beneficial in 1985 a-nd 2010 from reductions in water use, and small  reductions  in surface water
 pollutants.  Minor  beneficial terrestrial effects may result in 2010 with samll  decreases in soil  salinity.   Human
 health will  not be  significantly affected with this practice.


 (2)  Research needs:

     a.   Continued research  is needed on irrigation scheduling and other irrigation efficiency practices.
_!/ Rating: ±  (1  to  5) where  l=minor,  3=moderate,  and  5=major ecological  effect.   A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial effect; a  negative  (-)  rating  denotes a negative  or adverse effect.

2/ Include specification of  regional  implications as  needed.

-------
                          Exhibit  3.5.    Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:
                                                     Trend:  3. Improved Water Application
                                             Subtrend:  3.5 Irrigation Scheduling and Efficiency
                                                                                Crop  Production
                                                                                                                                       Page  1
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Extensiveness         In 1974, less than 15! of all irri-
                      gated cropland had professional
                      irrigation scheduling.  Irrigation
                      scheduling will increase greatly by
                      2010.
                                         1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--

                                         Panel 2: 1976  3 ;  1985  4  ;  2010  _5

                                         2. 382,000 acres of irrigated crop-
                                            land used some professional
                                            irrigation scheduling in 1974.
                                           1.  Oev.  Planning  &  Research  Assoc.,
                                              Environmental  Implications  of  Trends
                                              in  Agriculture and  Silviculture,
                                              200 pp.,  1977.

                                           2.  Jensen, M.E.,  Scientific  Irrigation
                                              Scheduling  for Salinity Control of
                                              Irrigation  Return Flows,  U.S.  En-
                                              vironmental  Protection Agency,  91
                                              pp.,  1975.
Productivity
Scheduling can increase crop yields
significantly.
3. Major benefits to the farm operator
   witn irrigation scheduling would
   be improved crop yields  and quality.

4. Crop yields are expected to in-
   ert ise with irrigation scheduling.
3. Reference #2.

4. Jenke, A. L.,  Evaluation of Salin-
   ity Created by Irrigation Return
   Flows, U.S. Environmental Protec-
   tion Agency, 127 pp., 1974.
Resource Use          Fertilizer use would decrease with
                      irrigation scheduling.  Herbicide
                      and insecticide use will remain con-
                      stant.  Water use will decrease 10%
                      with scheduling and up to an addi-
                      tional 20? with lining of irrigation
                      conveyance ditches.
                                         5.  Irrigation efficiencies  will  Improve
                                            an average of 10% with  scheduling.

                                         6.  Proper irrigation scheduling  could
                                            increase water effici-icy 10-15%.
                                            Estimated water losses  by canal
                                            seepage range from 13-48% with  an
                                            estimated average of 20%.

                                         7.  Lining on canals reduce  seepage
                                            losses from 5-10% of total  water
                                            to 1-2%.  Research data  shows ex-
                                            cessive irrigation by many farmers.
                                           5.  Reference  #2.
                                           6.  Reference  #4.
                                                                                                          7. Skogerboe,  G.V.  and  Walker,  W.R.,
                                                                                                            "Salinity control measures in  the
                                                                                                            Grand  Valley," pp. 123-136.   In:
                                                                                                            Managing  Irrigated Agriculture to
                                                                                                            Improve Water Quality,  Proc.  of
                                                                                                            Nat. Conf.  on Managing  Irrigated
                                                                                                            -gric. to Improve Water Quality,
                                                                                                            1972.
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Surface
Water—Sediment -
Nutrients -
Pesticides
Surface runoff will decrease causing
decreases in sediment and asso-
ciated nutrients.  With some soils
and irrigation techniques, reductions
can be significant.

Salt concentration in surface runoff
is comparable to original irrigation
water.  Thus, no reductions will re-
sult for salts.
                                                                                                                          Continued  .  .  .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit  3.5.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                      Page  2
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
               Pollutant  Changes
               in  Media:  Ground
               Water
CO
Salt concentrations In ground water
can be reduced significantly 1f con-
veyance losses are eliminated.  With
irrigation systems that allow even
application, scheduling can reduce
salt loads in the return flow.  Other
irrigation systems may not show a
decrease of salts in the return
flow.
 8.  Salt concentrations  in return  flows
    can be reduced  with  lining  of  con-
    veyance canals.

 9.  Salt concen .rations  in return
    flows may or  may not be reduced
    significantly,  depending on type
    of irrigation system and soil
    type.  Improved  irrigation  facil-
    ities are needed with scheduling
    1n some areas.
 8. Reference 17.
                                                                                                                        9. Reference #2.
               Pollutant  Changes
               in  Media:  Soil
Soil salinity decreases with Irriga-
tion scheduling.  Water use for
leaching of salts is included 1iv
scheduling.  Application rates and
leaching times are scheduled for
maximum salt leaching.
10.  Irrigation efficiency includes
    water for leaching  to control
    soil  salinity.   Leaching  and appli-
    cation rates  are scheduled  for
    maximum efficiency.   With more
    frequent applications, salt con-
    centrations are  not  as likely to
    build up to dangerous levels in
    the soil.
10. Reference 12, Reference 14.
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media: Air
No Change.

-------
                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in  Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants Subtrend: 4.1 Weather resistance
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1955
0
0
0
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
0
Factors/Rationale


SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential  ecological  effects  2/:

The effect  is  not expected to be significant on any of the ecosystems.   Some marginal  land will  be brought into
production; on the other  hand, multicropping can be expected to increase slightly.   These will tend to cancel each other
out in the  overall impact on runoff.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Research Involving these improvements should include investigation of environmental  impacts.
_!/ Rating: ±  (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A  plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial effect; a negative  (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                         Exhibit  4.1.   Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:   Crop  Production
                                                       Trend:   4.   Improvement  of  Seeds  and  Plants
                                                    Subtrend:   4.1   Weather resistance
  Environmental
     Effects
                                  Conclusions
                                                     Research
                                                     Findings
        References
Extensiveness         Gradual  improvements are being made
                      with weather resistance In crops,  but
                      no major developments are expected
                      for the next decade, at least.  Re-
                      search 1s on-going, but hampered by
                      lack of additional  research money.
                                         1.   Evaluation  Workshop  ratings
                                         Panel  1:   1976   4  ;  1985 4  ;  2010   5

                                         Panel  2:   1976   I  ;  1985 1  ;  2010   1


                                         2.   Research  for weather resistant
                                             crops  continues.   Progress has  been
                                             madfc,  but no major developments are
                                             exptcted  for another decade.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
Implications of Trends in Agri-
culture and Silviculture, Vol. 1,
200, pages, 1977.

National Academy of Sciences,
Climate and Food, Washington,
D.C., 1976
Productivity          Productivity could be greatly In-
                      creased with weather resistance.
                      Plants that can withstand severe
                      drought or prolonged cold periods
                      would provide the farmer with multl-
                      cropping opportunities with sus-
                      tained yields.   Short-growing sea-
                      son plants could be used for cli-
                      mates that currently have summers
                      too short for crops.
                                             High  yielding,  short-season  soybeans    3.   Reference tZ
                                             thai  could  grow further  north  in-
                                             creesed  Minnesotas  soybean production
                                             from  2%  to  8% of U.S.  total.   In 1975,
                                             dro.ght  tolerant corn  hybrids, main-
                                             tained yields during severe  drought.
                                             Semi dwarf wheat has improved water ef-
                                             ficiency which  maintains yields under
                                             stress.
                                                               4.
                                                                   Potential  productivity will Increase   4.
                                                                   greatly with  development of climate
                                                                   resistant  crops.
                                                                                       National Academy of Sciences - World
                                                                                       Food and Nutrition Study, Hash.,D.C.,
Resource Use          Until commercial use of weather
                      resistance crops increases, there
                      will be no increase in resource use.
                      By 2010 however, fertilizer and
                      pesticide use could increase 50%
                      or more, with year round cropping.
                      It 1s doubtful at this time 1f year
                      round cropping will occur in most
                      areas.  Rather crops will be de-
                      veloped for normal cropping season
                      which are more resistant to weather
                      stresses.  More land 1n unfavorable
                      climates could be brought Into
                      agriculture production by 2010
Pollutant changes 1n
Media
Pollutant changes are difficult to
evaluate.  With single cropping,
there will be no change.  Should
multicropplng Increase significantly
by 2010, pollutants would also In-
crease significantly.

-------
                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:   4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants	Subtrend:   4.2 Salt resistance
                     Ecological  Effect  Rating _!/
TYPE OF  EFFECT          TM52010                                       Factors/Rationale


Aquatic                   0             -1            Disruption of brackish coastline
Terrestrial               0             -1            Loss  of  habitats on saline soils

Human Health              0              0
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential  ecological  effects  2/:

No significant effects are expected by 1985.   Adverse effects  of  a minor nature can be anticipated on the aquatic and
terrestrial systems by 2010.  Ths use of salt resistance plants and  seed will permit cropping on the brackish coastline.
The resulting drainage will affect the brackish waters.   Returning saline  land to production will reduce.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Environmental implications should be made a part of ongoing-research  in this area.
_!/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major  ecological  effect.  A  plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial effect; a negative  (-) rating denotes a  negative or adverse  effect.

2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                           Exhibit   4.2.  Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop Production
                                                         Trend:   4.  Improvement of Seeds  and Plants
                                                      Subtrend:   4.2  !.alt  resistance
   Environmental
      Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                     Research
                                                     Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Extenslveness         Current research data shows prog-
                      ress in breeding plants that are
                      resistant to high concentrations
                      of salt and that these plants will
                      be used commercially in the future.
                      Widespread commercial use 1s still
                      several years away.
                                         1.   Evaluation workshop  ratings

                                         Panel  1:   1976   1  ;  1985   1  ; 2010  1  .

                                         Panel  ?.:   1976   3  ;  1985   4 _; 2010  5  .

                                         2.   Research with  salt resistant  strains
                                             of barley is promising.

                                         3.   Crop  production  based  on sea-
                                             water or other saline  sources
                                             is an attainable goal.
    Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
    Environmental Implications of Trends
    in Agriculture and Silviculture,
    Vol. I, 200 pages, 1977.
    "Salt tolerant plants sought,  Crops
    and Soils,27(7) 19-20, 1975.

    Rush, D.W., Norlyn, J.D., and Ep-
    stein, E.  "Salt-resistant crops
    coming," Crops and Soils, 29(3):
    7-9, 1976.
Productivity          Productivity in saline areas would
                      increase, especially where salinity
                      build-up reduces crop yields or has
                      taken land out of agriculture pro-
                      duction.  Currently technology is
                      developing salt resistant crops but
                      yield results show that these crops
                      are not feasible for commercial use
                      at this time.
                                         4.   First year  trials of salt-resistant
                                             barley  crops grown under very un-
                                             favorable conditions were 21% of
                                             y1 'Id from  irrigated barley.  Re-
                                             search  people  found these results
                                             very encouraging.
4.  Reference if3
Resource Use          Fertilizer and pesticide use would
                      remain constant.  Increased land
                      could be brought into production In
                      highly saline areas.
Pollutant Change 1n
Media
No change

-------
                                      Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in  Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
    Trend:   4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants	    Subtrend:    4.3 Production efficiency
                         Ecological  Effect  Rating I/
    TYPE OF  EFFECT           19E3	  	20lO
Factors/Rationale
    Aquatic                   0             -1            Increased fertilizer use
    Terrestrial               0           	0_           Assumes  no  increase in land cropped
    Human Health              0              0                  	
    SUMMARY STATEMENT
    (1) Potential ecological effects  2/;
    No significant effects are expected by 1985.   Increased  fertilizer  requirements can expect to have adverse effects
—i   of a minor nature on the aquatic system by 2010.
-P=.
oo
    (2) Research needs:
        a. Environmental implications should be made  a  part  of ongoing  research in this area.
    I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor. 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus  (+)  rating  denotes  a  positive or
       beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
    2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                                          Exhibit 4.3.   Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop Production
                                                                        Trend:  4.  Inprovement of Seeds and Plants
                                                                     Subtrend:  4.3 Production efficiency
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                                          Research
                                                                          Findings
                                                                                                                                   References
-pa
UD
Extensiveness         Substantial  improvements In agri-
                      cultural production efficiency have
                      been made during the past two decades.
                      While research will continue to im-
                      prove production efficiency, it is
                      doubtful if comparable advances can
                      be obtained from such technology
                      improvements in the short-run future.
                      Further significant yield increases
                      will require greater photosynthetic
                      efficiency.   Research continues on
                      photosynthesis process in plants.
                      Factors that control photosynthesis
                      are not well understood and until
                      these factors are found, progress
                      in production efficiency will be
                      slow.
1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings

Panel 1:  1976 _"_; 1985  4 ; 2010  5 .

Panel 2:  1976  1  ; 1985  1 ; 2010  2 .

2.  Great gains have been obtained with
    crop production efficiency in last
    decades.   It is doubtful  if compar-
    able advances  can be obtained from
    technology improvements in the short-
    term future.

3.  Impressive yield increases in agri-
    culture in past 25 years  came from a
    combination of new varieties, high
    rati s of  fertilization, high plant
    populations, disease resistance,  and
    control of insects and weeds.  Fur-
    ther significant yield increases  will
    require photosynthetic efficiency
    control.
                                                                                                                             Dev.  Planning and Research Assoc.
                                                                                                                             Environmental  Implications of
                                                                                                                             Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
                                                                                                                             culture,  Vol.  1,  200 pages, 1977.

                                                                                                                             National  Academy  of Sciences,
                                                                                                                             Agricultural  Production  Efficiency,
                                                                                                                             Washington,  D.  C.,  1975.
National Academy of Sciences.
World Food and Nutrition Study.
Washington, D.C., 1975.
               Productivity          Further productivity increases will
                                     be the result of biochemical  or
                                     genetic control of plants photo-
                                     synthesis process.  Yields and en-
                                     hanced crop quality will result from
                                     improved production efficiency.
                                                               4.   Control  of photosynthesis  in  plants
                                                                   is  the key to increased yields  and
                                                                   food  quality.
                                               Reference  #3
               Pollutant Changes in
               Media
                      No change

-------
                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:   4. Improvement of Seeds and Plants	   Subtrend:  4.4 Disease, insect, and nematode resistant crops

                     Ecological  Effect  Rating  I/
TYPE OF  EFFECT          IMF          2010                                     Factors/Rationale
Aquatic                   +2            +4            Decrease  in pesticide use

Terrestrial               +1            +3                     	
Human Health              +1            +2            Less  injuries associated with application	


SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential  ecological  effects  2/:

Beneficial effects are expected to stem primarily from the  decrease in pesticide use.  The greatest benefits are ex-
pected to occur in the aquatic systems with less  pesticide  runoff  in surface waters.  The reduction in pesticide use
would reduce the likelihood of injuries associated with explication and reentry.


(2)  Research needs:

    a.  Ongoing research should include investigations of the  environmental impacts.
If Rating: ± (1 to 5) vhere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A  plus  (+)  rating  denotes  a  positive or
   beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                           Exhibit  4.4.   Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop  Production
                                                         Trend:   4.   Improvement of Seeds and Plants
                                          Subtrend:  4.4-  Disease, insect,  and nematode resistant crops
                                                                                                                                       Page  1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness         Approximately 75* of all  crop-
                      land is planted with seed va-
                      rieties that show resistance
                      to some disease or insect.
                      Research continues to develop
                      more resistant crops to replace
                      these with even more resistant
                      varieties.  By 2010, some crops
                      will be very resistant to cer-
                      tain diseases and pests.
1.  Evaluation Uorkshop Ratings            1.

Panel  1:  1976  _4_; 1985  4 ;  2010 _5_.


2.  Seventy-five percent of U.S.  crop-
    land utilities resistant varieties     2.
    (insect) developed during  past 50
    years.   Research continues with al-
    most all crop varieties to find or
    improve resistance to insects.
    Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
    Environmental Implications of
    Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
    culture, Vol. 1. 200 pages, 1977.

    National Academy of Sciences,
    Contemporary Pest Control Prac-
    tices anc1 Prospects, Volume I,
    Washington, D. C., 1975.
Productivity          Productivity can Increase sub-
                      stantially with crops having in-
                      bred resistant to disease and
                      Insects.
3.  Under greenbug  attack, a  new  sorghum
    variety had yields up to  seven times
    higher than susceptible  sorghum var-
    ieties.  Seeds  will  be available 1n
    1977 or 1978.

4.  Current research with corn strains
    resistant to the corn borer looks
    very promising.
                                                               5.   A new millet  variety  is  resistant
                                                                   to leaf spot  disease  and has  7-205!
                                                                   more foliage  than  other  millet  va-
                                                                   rieties.   Yields were higher  for a
                                                                   variety of alfalfa resistant  to stem
                                                                   nematodes, downy mildew, and  bac-
                                                                   terial  wilt.

                                                               6.   Disease resistant  crops  have  lead
                                                                   tD increjsed  crop  yields.
3.  "23 new sorghum breeding lines
    from Texas," Crops and Soils
    29(7): 23, 19777
4.  Pardee, W. D., and Gracen, V. E.,
    "Crops fight back, bred-1n in-
    sect resistance," Crops and Soils
    28(7): 8-9, 1976.

5.  "Varieties,  Crops and Soils
    28(7): 23,19767
                                           6.   National  Academy of Sciences,
                                               World Food and  Nutrition  Study,
                                               :,'ashington, D.  C.,  1975.
Resource Use          Fertilizer and herbicide use
                      remains unchanged.  Insecti-
                      cide use will decrease as more
                      insect disease resistant crop
                      varieties are developed.  Crop
                      resistance 1s generally insuf-
                      ficient to control insects and
                      supplemental chemicals may have
                      to be used, but fewer treat-
                      ments are needed.  There are
                      some exceptions where crops
                      are entirely resistant to In-
                      sects.  Pesticide cost would be
                      reduced.
    Supolemental  applications of chem-
    icals may need to be used with in-
    sect resistant crops, but fewer
    treatments are needed.  Some crops
    seen to be entirely disease resist-
    ant and do not require supplemental
    chemical pesticide applications.
    U.S. Dept. of Agriculture/U.S.
    Environmental Protection Agency,
    Control of Uater Pollution from
    £rvpland, Vol. 1. Report No.ARS.
    H-5-1, Washington. D.C., 1975.
                                                                                                                                Continued .  .  .

-------
                                                                          Exhibit    4.4.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                       Page 2
                 Environmental
                    Effects
              Conclusions
Research
Findings
                                                                                                  References
               Pollutant Changes in
               Media
en
Pesticide residues in water,
soil, and air will be reduced
as more insect resistance
crops are developed.  De-
crease will be gradual since,
development of these crops
will be slowly evolving.  By
2010, there could be substan-
tial reductions in pesticide
residues 1n the environment.

Soil and nutrient losses will
tend to remain unchanged.  If
widespread yield increases
occur, over the crop yields
now obtained with chemical
pesticides, soil loss and
nutrient loss will decrease.
This decrease is a result of
high yielding crops reducing
surface run-off and ground
water losses.

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                                  Evaluation  Sheet for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:   5. Scouting and Integrated Controls	    Subtrend:  5.1  & 5.2 Scouting-surface  &  remote  sensing  scouting

                     Ecological  Effect  Rating  I/
TYPE  OF  EFFECT           195?2010    "                                  Factors/Rationale


Aquatic                   +1            +3            Reduced pesticide  use	
Terrestrial               +1            +3            Reduced pesticide  use
Human  Health            	0_           +1            Reduced reentry problems
SUMMARY  STATEMENT

(1)  Potential  ecological  effects  2/:


Beneficial effects are expected to stem primarily from reductions  in pesticide  use.  The  effects would be only minor
in 1935.  By 2010, significant effects would occur in the aquatic  and terrestrial  systems.


(2)  Research needs:
_!/ Rating: ±  (1  to  5) where  l=minor.  3=moderate,  and  5=major  ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial effect; a  negative  (-)  rating  denotes a negative  or  adverse  effect.

2/ Include specification of  regional  implications as  needed.

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                                   Exhibit 5.1 & 5.2.   Environmental  assessment of  selected  agricultural  trends:  Crop Production
                                                                Trend:   5.   Scouting and  Integrated  Controls
                                                  Subtrends:  5.1 & 5.2. Scouting-surface and remote sensing scouting
                                                                                                                                             p
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
               Research
               Findings
                                                                                                                                    References
              Extensiveness         Use of scouting to identify
                                    specific insect pests areas
                                    and predict which crop areas
                                    need chemical treatment is
                                    very limited in 1976.  Diag-
                                    nostic and predictive methods
                                    are not currently reliable for
                                    pest control.  By the time an
                                    area has been identified as
                                    having a potential pest prob-
                                    lem, damage has often, already
                                    occurred.  Much research and
                                    public education is needed
                                    before this practice will  be-
                                    come a potential method to re-
                                    duce chemical pesticides.
C71
1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings
Surface scouting

Panel  1:  1976  1  ;  1985  3 ;  2010  5 .

Remote sensing scouting

Panel  1:  1976 _T_;  1985  1 ;  2010  2 .

2.  With present state of art, it is im-
    possible to identify and predict
    which field or area may or may not
    be damaged by insects.   Often fields
    cannot be selected until  insect
    danage has already occurred.   Cur-
    rently pilot scouting programs exist
    in Iowa and Illinois, which may prove
    successful.

3:  ,-armers often appear to be unable
    or unwilling to  base their pest
    co.itrol decisions on complex calcu-
    lations of the relationships between
    pe;t infestations, yield losses, and
    pesticide applications.  They adopt
    pe>t control program - that tend to
    require regular  and heavy use of
    pesticides.  Considerable research
    is needed to accurately predict
    pesticide losses.
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1977.
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Farmers Pesticide Use
Decisions and Attitudes on
Alternation Crop Protection
Methods. 158 pages. 1974.
                                                                                                                           National Academy of Sciences,
                                                                                                                           Volume 1, Contemporary Pest
                                                                                                                           Control Practices and Pros-
                                                                                                                           pects, Wash., D.C. 1975.
              Productivity          Very limited research exists
                                    for the success of scouting
                                    programs to successfully pre-
                                    dict which areas need to be
                                    treated with pesticides.
                                    Areas can show sustained
                                    crop yields without use of
                                    pesticides.  Pilot scouting
                                    programs made surveys for
                                    several insects, found these
                                    to be economic thresholds,
                                    and no control  was recom-
                                    mended or applied.  Crop
                                    yields are assumed to be
                                    comparable to treated areas.
                                    Sometimes damage has al-
                                    ready occurred by the time
                                    a  pest problem is Identified,
                                    leading to decreased yields.
                                    Some yield increases have
                                    been attributed to decreased
                                    use of hydrocarbon pesticides.
4.  Pilot scouting programs  determined
    insect levels to be below the econ-
    omic threshold, and no control  was
    recommended or applied.

    Acres with decreased hydrocarbon use
    since 1966 have shown Increased
    yields, thus decrease in use did not
    adversely affect yields.  Attributing
    the yield Increases to decreased
    hydrocarbon use is questionable.

5.  Crop yields were shown to Increase
    with decreased hy.-i-ocarbon use.
Reference #2.
Casey, 0. E., Lacewell, R.D., and
Sterling W., "An example of econ-
omically feasible opportunities
for reducing pesticide use in
commerical agriculture," J. of
Environ Quality 4(1): 60-64TT975.
                                                                                                                                            Continued  .  .  .

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                                                                 Exhibit 5.1 & 5.2.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                             Page  2
               Environmental
                  Effects
                                                Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                    References
en
en
Resource Use          Fertilizer use and herbicide use
                      remain unchanged.  It has been
                      determined that probably all her-
                      bicide applications are needed
                      for effective weed control.   In
                      some areas, an estimated 40% of
                      all insecticides applied are not
                      needed in Illinois and 50% of all
                      chlorinated hydrocarbons were not
                      needed.
40% of all  acres in Illinois treated
with insecticides did not need treat-
ment.  At least 50% of all acres 1n
Iowa and Illinois treated with chlor-
inated hyd ocarbons did not need
treatment.

Use of herbicides was needed and
profitable on all acres treated.
                                                                                                                       6.   Reference #2
             Pollutant Changes
             In Media
                      Pesticide residues in water, soil,
                      and air could greatly be reduced
                      with reliable scouting use.  How-
                      ever, large reductions are not
                      likely to be seen until scouting
                      can prove itself as a control
                      method.

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                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
en
CTi
Trend: 5. Scouting and Integrated Controls
Ecological Effect
lYPt Oh thhbCI 1985
Aquatic +1
Terrestrial +1
Human Health 0
Rating I/
2010
+4
+4
-+2
Subtrend :
Target oriented
Reduced effect on
__ —
5.3 Integrated controls
Factors/Rationale
non-target organisms

SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:


Pesticide use would be limited for  the  most  part to  target-organisms.  This pesticide reduction would enhance both the
aquatic and terrestrial  systems through increased species diversity.


(2) Research needs:

    a.   Research and developments in  this area need  to be followed up with education in the benefits and application
        of these controls.
    I/  Rating:  ± (1  to 5)  vhere l=minor,  3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
       beneficial  effect;  a negative (-)  rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2/  Include  specification of regional  implications as needed.

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                           Exhibit  5.3.  Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural  trends:
                                                 Trend:   5.   Scouting and Integrated  Controls
                                                       Subtrend:   5.3,  Integrated controls
                                     Crop Production
                                                                                                                                Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Extensiveness         Successful  development of integrated
                      controls depends on natural  pest
                      populations control, along with a
                      combination of techniques that con-
                      tribute to  suppression, cultural
                      methods, pest-specific diseases,
                      resistant crop varieties, sterile
                      insects, attractants, use of preda-
                      tors, or chemical pesticides as
                      needed.  Some of these methods are
                      in thei>- infancy and are not yet
                      widely accepted or feasible to use.
                      However, contemporary pesticide
                      practices have proved effective to
                      the farmer.  Until those other prac-
                      tices are available for use and con-
                      vincing evidence shows they offer
                      more protection per unit of cost
                      than current pest control methods,
                      fanners will not adopt integrated
                      controls.  By 2010 integrated con-
                      trols will  probably be widely ac-
                      cepted and used.
1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings:

Panel  1:  1976 J_; 1985  4 ;  2010  5 .

Panel  2:  1976  2 ; 1985  3 ;  2010  4 .

2.  Current chenr.cal  pest control
    methods are effective.  Farmers
    will not adopt integrated  control
    methods until they become  feasible
    for commercial use and can be shown
    to be as effective per unit of cost
    as current control methods.
1.  Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
    Environmental Implications of
    Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
    culture, Vol. 1, 200 pages. 1977.

2.  National Academy of Sciences, Vol-
    ume 1, Contemporary Pest Control
    Practices and Prospects, Washing-
    ton, D.C., 1975.
Productivity          Productivity of integrated pest
                      control will compare to produc-
                      tivity from chemical pest control
                      methods.  For example, yield in-
                      creases occur with some insect re-
                      sistant crops and with decreased
                      use of chlorinated hydrocarbons.
3.  Yields increase with some insect and   3.
    disease resistant crops.
4.  Crop yields were shown to increase     4.
    with decreased chlorinated hydro
    carbon ur.e.
                                                               5.   Acres  with  decreased  chlorinated       5.
                                                                   hydrocarbon use  since 1966,  showed
                                                                   yield  increases,  showing  decrease
                                                                   in use did  not adversely  affect
                                                                   yields.   Attributing  yield  increase
                                                                   to decreased use  1i questionable.
    See References  for 7.4,  Disease
    and insect resistant  crops  -
    productivity.

    Casey,  J.  E., Lacewell,  R.D.,  and
    Sterling,  W.  "An  example of econ-
    omically  feasible opportunities
    *or reducing  pesticide use  in  com-
    mercial agriculture," J.  of Environ.
    Quality 4(l):60-64, 1975.

    U.S.  Environmental  Protection  Agency,
    Fa""iers Pesticide Use Decisions and
    Attitudes  on  Alternative Crop  Pro-
    ted on  Methods, 158 pages,  1974.
Resource Use          Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
                      main constant.   Insecticide  use
                      would be greatly decreased.  Cost
                      could increase for some practices
                      associated with Integrated pest
                      control.
                                                                                                                                Continued

-------
en
co
                                                                         Exhibit   5.3.  (Continued)                                                   p
Environmental
Effects
Pollutant Changes
1n Media
Conclusions
Pesticide residues in water, soil,
and air will oe significantly re-
duced. Reductions will not be
seen until integrated controls
become feasible.
Research
Findings

References


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                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological  S Chemical  Pesticides Subtrend:  6.1-6.5 Development of new chemical  pesticides

                     Ecological  Effect Rating  I/
TYPE OF  EFFECT           19HF2010                                       Factors/Rationale


Aquatic                   +1            +3            Beneficial  effects of  bio-degradable  pesticides	

Terrestrial               +1            +2            Greater species  diversity	
Human Health              +1            +2            Acute toxicity decreased
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential  ecological  effects  2J :

Beneficial effects can be expected primarily from anticipated developments  in  and  use  of  bio-degradable pesticides which
are less toxic.  This will enhance both the aquatic and terrestrial  systems by increasing  species diversity.  Acute
toxicity problems will be reduced in pesticide application.   Also, overall  pesticide use  is expected to decrease.
Potential problems can be foreseen in the development of systems  and micro-encapsulated formulations.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Research is needed in the environmental effects of these  pesticides as they are developed including a study of
        systemic residues and the nature of degradation products.

    b.  Research is also needed on biomagnification of the food chain and effects  of pesticides in the decomposing food
        chain.
If Rating: ±  (1 to 5) v;here  l=minor,  3=moderate,  and  5=major  ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes  a positive or
   beneficial effect; a negative  (-)  rating  denotes a  negative  or  adverse  effect.

2/ Include specification of  regional  implications as  needed.

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                          Exhibit 6.1.   Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:   Crop  Production
                                       Trend:   6.  Development of New biological  and  Chemical  Pesticides
                                                       Subtrend:  6.1 Micro-encapsulated
  Environmental
     Effects
             Conclusions
Research
Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Extensiveness         Research has only begun on micro-
                      encapsulation of pesticides.   In-
                      sufficient attention has been given
                      to the basic release mechanisms.
                      This is a promising area and  may
                      be used in future.
                                         1.  Evaluation Workshop Rating—

                                         Panel  1:  1976 _1_;  1985  2 ;  2010 _3_

                                         2.  Research has  only begun on  micro-
                                            encapsulation of pesticides.  Fur-
                                            ther research is needed to  deter-
                                            mine feasibility of use.
                            1.  Dev.  Planning  and  Research  Assoc.,
                               Environmental  Implications  of Funds
                               in  Agriculture and Silviculture.
                               Volume  1,  200  pp., 1977.

                            2.  National Academy of Sciences,
                               Volume  1,  Contemporary  Pest Con-
                               trol  Practices and Prospects.
                               Washington,  D.C.,  1975.
Productivity          Productivity would be comparable
                      to productivity from conventional
                      chemical  pesticide control.
Resource Use          Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
                      main constant.  Insecticide use
                      would decrease since efficiency
                      is increased and fewer applica-
                      tions are needed.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Pesticide residues in water would
be decreased since use decreases.
Residues in air would also de-
crease since mlcroencapsulatlon
reduces loss through drift and
volatilization.  Persistence in
soil may be increased with slow
release pesticides.

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                           Exhibit 6.2.   Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop Production
                                        Trend:   6.   Development of New Biological  and Chemical  Pesticides
                                                      Subtrend:  6.2  Systemic pesticides
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
            References
Extenslveness         Systemic pesticides are ab-
                      sorbed and translocated through
                      the plant to which they are ap-
                      plied.  They show promise, but
                      more research is needed to de-
                      termine the residue levels re-
                      maining in the plants at har-
                      vest time.  Limitations and
                      benefits of systemic pesti-
                      cides have yet to be deter-
                      mined.
                                         1.   Evaluation  Horkshop  Ratings:

                                         Panel  1:   1976   2  ;  1985  3  ;  2010   4
                                         2.   More  research  is  needed  to  deter-
                                             mine  residue levels  remaining  1n
                                             plants  at  harvest time.   Limita-
                                             tions and  potential  benefits of
                                             this  practice  need to  be further
                                             researched.
2.
    Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
    Environmental Implications of
    Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
    culture, Volume 1, 200 pages,
National Academy of Sciences.
Vplume 1, Contemporary Pest
Control Practices and"Prospects,
Washington, D.C., 1975.
Productivity
Productivity is expected to
remain constant.
Resource Use          Resource use will remain con-
                      stant (Note:  data is not avail-
                      able for pesticide use with
                      systemic pesticides, but is
                      assumed to remain unchanged.
Pollutant Changes
in Media
Change 1n pesticide residue
levels in water, soil, and
air is unknown, but assumed
not to increase.  A potential
exists for increased pesti-
cide residues in crops.  More
research 1s needed to deter-
mine if dangerous residue
levels can result.

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                           Exhibit 6.3.  Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:   Crop  Production
                                       Trend:  6.  Development of New Biological  and  Chemical  Pesticides
                                                    Subtrend:   6.3  Surfactants  for herbicides
  Environmental
     Effects
                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                       References
Extensiveness
Much research is needed be-
fore surfactants are avail-
able for commercial use.
Potential is high for this
development and commercial
use is anticipated for sur-
factants.
                                                               1.   Evaluation  Workshop  Rating
                                                               Panel  1:   1976   1  ;  1985  2  ; 2010   3
                                                               2.   Research is  needed  for develop-
                                                                   ment  of surfactants,  but  po-
                                                                   tential  is high  for surfactants.
                                           Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
                                           Environmental Implications of
                                           Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
                                           culture, Volume 1, 200 pages.
                                           197T.
                                           National Academy of Sciences,
                                           Volume 1, Contemporary Pest
                                           Control  Practices and Prosp'ects.
                                           Washington, D. C., 1975.
Productivity          Productivity will remain un-
                      changed or increase slightly.
                      Increase would be due to In-
                      creased efficiency of the
                      herbicides.
Resource Use
Fertilizer and insecticide
use remain constant.  Herbi-
cide use could decrease as
much as 50%.  Cost of herbi-
cide treatment would be
reduced.
                                                               3.
He-bidde requirement could be
reduced by 50*.
3.  Reference #2
Pollutant Changes
in Media
Herbicide losses Into water,
soil, and air will  be signi-
ficantly decreased.
Herbicides account for 46? of
total pesticides used by far-
mers 1n 1971.  Surfactants
could reduce this use by as
much as 50%.
4.  Reference #2

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                                        Exhibit 6.4.  Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:  Crop Production
                                                     Trend:  6. Development of New Biological and Chemical Pesticides
                                                                Subtrend:  6.4 Biodegradable Pesticides I/
                Environmental
                    Effects
en
Co
               Productivity
                                                 Conclusions
                                                                   Research
                                                                   Findings
                                                        References
               Extensiveness          Selective  less toxic, biodegradable
                                     pesticides can and are being devel-
                                     oped  through  research, and offers a
                                     solution to persistent pesticides as
                                     DDT,  and to the  toxic biodegradable
                                     pesticides that  are currently avail-
                                     able.   Extensiveness will increase
                                     to  2010 when  several selective, less
                                     toxic,  biodegradable pesticides will
                                     be  available.  Cost of the pesticides
                                     is  high in 1976  which decreases their
                                     use by  farmers.   Cost reductions will
                                     lead  to wider use of the compounds.
                                                    1.  Evaluation  Workshop  Ratings--

                                                    Panel  1:  1976   3  ;  1985  4  ;  2010   5  .

                                                    2.  Selective biodegradable  pesticides
                                                       are  being developed.   They have  a
                                                       high toxicity  to  insects,  yet are
                                                       relatively  safe  to humans  and high-
                                                       er animals.  Two  examples  of these
                                                       "new"  pesticides  are emphasized:

                                                       a. Selectivity of parathion is be-
                                                         ing improved.  These  retain high
                                                         toxicity to pests,  yet  are safe
                                                         to  man and  higher animals.
                                                       b. The biodegradability  of DDT is
                                                         being improved.   The  new analog
                                                         will be  persistent  but  not stored
                                                         in  the lipids  of  animals or con-
                                                         centrated in  food chains.
                                           1.  Dev.  Planning and Research Assoc.,
                                              Environmental Implications of Trends
                                              In Agriculture and Silviculture,
                                              Volume 1,  200 pp., 1977.

                                           2.  National Academy of Sciences, Pest
                                              Control  Strategies of the  Future,
                                              Washington,  D.C., 1972.
           Productivity remains unchanged.
No research data available.
               Resource Use          Fertilizer,  herbicide  ,  and  insec-
                                     ticide use will  remain unchanged.
                                     Cost of selective  non-toxic  biodegrad-
                                     able pesticides  are  higher because
                                     they are not as  extensively  used as
                                     more toxic pesticides.   Research
                                     costs to develop these are also high,
                                     leading to increased pesticide cost.
                                                    3.  Cost  of  newer  biodegradable pes-
                                                       ticides  can  be considerably higher.
                                           3.  Fox,  A.S.,  "Economic  consequences
                                              of  restricting or  banning  the  use
                                              of  pesticides,"  pp. 34-49.   In:
                                              Economic  Research  on  Pesticides for
                                              Policy  Decision  Making,  U.S. Dept.
                                              of  Agric./Economic Research  Service,
                                              Washington,  D.C.,  1971.
               Pollutant Change      Pesticide residues  in  water,  soil,
               in Media:             and  water remain  constant.  However,
                                     some biodegraJjble  pesticides  are
                                     more toxic to  humans and  animals.
                                     Selection and  the use  of  less  toxic
                                     biodegradable  pesticides  will  reduce
                                     hazards  to humans and  animals.
                                                    4.  Certain  biodegradable  pesticides,
                                                       such  as  parathion, are highly toxic
                                                       to  animals.   Several deaths have
                                                       been  caused  to  applicators of the
                                                       pesticide.
                                              Hoffman,  C.H.,  "Restricting  the  use
                                              of  insectiddes-what are  the altern-
                                              •.tives?"  pp.  14-21.  In:  Economic
                                              Research  on  Pesticides  for Policy
                                              Decision  Making,  U.S. Dept.  of
                                              Agric./Economic Research  Service,
                                              Washington,  D.C.,  1971.
               I/   Note:
Discussion 1s limited to the development of newer selective,  less  toxic  biodegradable pesticides.  There are currently bio-degradable
pesticides used widely in the U.S.  However, these compounds  are very  toxic  to  humans and are often considered undesirable for use.

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                          Exhibit 6.5.  Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop Production
                                       Trend:  6. Development of New Biological  and Chemical  Pesticides
                                                   Subtrend:   6.5 Alternative Formulations
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                        References
Extensiveness         No accurate estimates can be made of
                      the number of acres on which altern-
                      ative formulations are being used.
                      The workshop panel expect the use to
                      be significant by 2010.
                                         1. Extensiveness ratings assigned by
                                            the Crop Production Panel  (Work-
                                            shop) are as follows:
                                                1976    1985
                                                                2010
                                              Development Planning and Research
                                              Associates, Environmental  Implica-
                                              tions of Trends in Agriculture aTid"
                                              Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp.,
                                              1977.
Productivity          The effectiveness of this practice
                      would be reflected in increased
                      crop yields.
                                            The use of a  series  of pesticides
                                            and mixtures which differ in their
                                            effectiveness in controlling pests
                                            reduces the chance of a species
                                            that is tolerant to a specific pes-
                                            ticide from becoming  dominant.
                                           2.  National  Academy of Sciences, Pest
                                              Control  Strategies  of the Future,
                                              Washington,  D.C., 1972.
Resource Use          The overall pesticide requirement
                      would not be significantly changed
                      although minor decreases could be
                      expected as a result of increased
                      effectiveness.
Pollutant Change
in Hedia-
Slight reductions of residues 1n the
soil and water can be expected.
The rotation of pesticides reduces
the chance of an accumulation of
pesticide residues 1n the soil.
3.  Reference #2.

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                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 6. Development of New Biological  S Chemical  Pesticides Subtrend: 6.6-6.9 Development of new biological  pesticides

                     Ecological  Effect Rating  I/
TYPE OF  EFFECT           IMS          2UIT)                                       Factors/Rationale
Aquatic                   +1            +3	-----	

Terrestrial               +1            +3	________.;	

Human Health              +1            +3              		              	


SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential  ecological  effects  ___/:

Minor effects are expected by 1985 on .the ecological system.   Depending on the extensiveness  of these developments,
the effects are expected, to be of moderate importance by 2010.   Developments are anticipated to have regional
application.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Research is needed principally in developments related to the use of predators and parasites  and involve the
        effect of these agents on non-target organisms and their effects after the prey has been eradicated.
I/ Rating: ±  (1  to  5)  where  l=minor,  3=moderate,  and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
~  beneficial effect;  a  negative (-)  rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

2J Include specification of  regional  implications as needed.

-------
                                 Exhibit 6.6 & 6.7.
                                        Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop  Production
                                        Trend:  6. Development of New Biological  and  Chemical  Pesticides
                                        Subtrend: 6.6 & 6.7.   Juvenile Hormones  and  Phermones
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
              Extensiveness         Extensiveness is limited in 1976.
                                    Research is promising, but com-
                                    mercial use may be 10 years away.
CTl
                                                               1.  Evaluation Workshop Rating--
                                                                  Juvenile Hormones
                                                                                ;  1985 _2_;  2010 _4_
                                                                             Panel 1: 1976

                                                                                Pheromones

                                                                             Panel 1: 1976 _!__;  1985  2 ;  2010 _4_

                                                                             2. Research is on-going and looks
                                                                                promising.  Commercial  use is
                                                                                still a few years away.  An ex-
                                                                                perimental permit was granted 1n
                                                                                1974 for experimental use of .
                                                                                Altnsid, a compound designed to
                                                                                interfere with pest metabolism.
1.  Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.,
   Environmental Implications of Trends
   in Agriculture and Silviculture,
   Volume 1, 200 pp., 1977.
                                                                                                          2.  National  Academy  of  Sciences,
                                                                                                             Volume  1,  Contemporary  Pest Con-
                                                                                                             trol  Practices  and Prospects.
                                                                                                             Washington,  D.C., 1975.
Productivity          Productivity resulting from the use
                      of these compounds 1s unknown.   If
                      they are to be widely used, pro-
                      ductivity must be comparable to
                      yields from chemical  pest control
                      methods.  Large scale field tests
                      are needed to determine how effec-
                      tive these compounds  are 1n sustain-
                      ing yields.

                      Potentially, productivity could
                      Increase if a pest is eradicated
                      or if pesticide residues in soil
                      decrease.
                                                                             3. Larqe scale field tests are needed
                                                                                to determine if these compounds
                                                                                can compete with chemical  pes-
                                                                                tic'des.
3. Reference 12.
              Resource Use          Fertilizer and herbicide use re-
                                    main constant.  Insecticide use
                                    may not be greatly decreased because
                                    juvenile hormones and pheromones
                                    are usually specific for one pest.
                                    If more than one pest is present in
                                    one area, another insecticide may
                                    have to be applied.   More applica-
                                    tions of hormones and pheromones
                                    may have to be applied to effectively
                                    control a pest.  Cost per unit of
                                    control with these compounds has not
                                    been determined.
              Pollutant Changes
              in Media:
                      Insecticide residues in soil, water,
                      and »ir may remain constant or de-
                      crease.  Residues will  still be pres-
                      ent with hormones and pheromones.
                      However these residues  are toxic only
                      to insects and not to man or animals.

-------
                                        Exhibit 6.8.   Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:  Crop Production
                                                     Trend:  6. Development of New Biological  and Chemical  Pesticides
                                                                       Subtrend:  6.8 Sterile Males
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
              Extensiveness         U.S.O.A. is involved in a number of
                                    large scale programs designed to
                                    control certain Insects by the re-
                                    lease of sterile males.  However,
                                    from a national perspective, this
                                    practice is not very extensive as
                                    reflected in the ratings of the
                                    workshop panel.
cr>
                                         1.  The  crop  production  panel  assigned
                                            the  following  extensiveness  rat-
                                            ings to  this  trend:
                                                 1976
                                                  1
1985
 1
2010
 2
                                            U.S.D.A.  is  involved  1n major
                                            efforts  to control  a  number  of
                                            insact  populations  to include the
                                            pink  bollworm in  the  Southwest,
                                            the Mexican  fruitfly  in the  sub-
                                            trooical  areas  of the United
                                            States,  and  the boll  wevil in the
                                            Southeast and parts of the South-
                                            west.
                             Development Planning and Research
                             Associates, Environmental  Implica-
                             tions of Trends in Agriculture and*
                             Silviculture, Volume 1,  200 pp.,
                             1977.
                          2.  National  Academy of Sciences,  Con-
                             temporary Pest Control  Practices
                             and Prospects: The Report of the
                             Executive Committee, Volume 1,
                             T5TT.
              Productivity
A slight increase in crop yields
can be expected.
               Resource Use          Minor decreases can be expected in
                                    the overall chemical pesticide re-
                                    quirements.
               Pol lutant  Changes
               in  Media
Minor to insignificant reductions
in pesticide runoff and leaching
would result from the associated
reduction in chemical pesticide re-
quirements.

-------
                                        Exhibit 6.9.  Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Crop Production
                                                     Trend:  6. Development of New Biological  and Chemical  Pesticides
                                                                  Subtrend:  Predators and Parasites
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
               Research
               Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
              Extenslveness         Although spectacular results have
                                    occurred with the use of predators
                                    and parasites 1n pest control, the
                                    wide range of technology necessary
                                    for excessive adoption of this
                                    practice has not been developed
                                    (Reference 1).

                                    The workshop did not expect this
                                    trend to become very important 1n
                                    the future.
CTi
CD
The rating assigned by the crop pro-
duction panel for this trend was  1
for 1976, 1985, and 2010.
                                           1. National  Academy of Science, Con-
                                              teir.porary Pest Control  Practices
                                              and Prospects: The Report of the
                                              Executive Committee. 1975"i
2.  Development Planning and Research
   Associates, Env1ronmental Impl1 ca-
   tions of Trends In Agriculture and"
   Silviculture, Volume 1, 200 pp.,
   1977.
              Productivity          Although the use of predators and
                                    parasites 1n the control of both
                                    weeds and Insects shows promise of
                                    increasing crop yields, no signif-
                                    icant increase is expected in
                                    light of the limited use anticipated
                                    for the practice.
              Resource Use          No significant effect on resource
                                    use is expected.  However, a re-
                                    duction in pesticide requirement can
                                    be expected in those cases in which
                                    this practice is used.
The use of parasites in 'ontrol  of
grape leafhoppers in California  re-
sulted in a net savings of $2.8  mil-
lion in pest control costs over  an
eight year period.
3. Reference
              Pollutant Change      This trend should not have any
              in Media              direct effects on pollutants 1n the
                                    soil, water, or air.

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
of Nutrient
Ecological
1985
0
0
0
Application
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
0
Subtrend: 7.1 Foliar application
Factors/Rationale


    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1)  Potential  ecological  effects 2/:


    No significant  effects are expected  from foliar application.  This application technique is  basically an  adjunct  to
__,  soil  incorporation  but may be a  partial substitute.
cr>


    (2)  Research needs:

        a.   Ongoing research  involving foliar application should address environmental  implications.
    I/  Rating:  ± (1  to 5)  where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
   ~~  beneficial  effect;  a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2/  Include  specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                                        Exhibit 7.1.   Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural trends:
                                                            Trend:   7.   Methods of Nutrient Application
                                                                    Subtrend:   7.1   Foliar  application
                                                                              Crop  Production
               Environmental
                  Effects
                                               Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                   References
             Extensiveness         Extensiveness in 1976 is low.   Re-
                                   search is on-going and there are
                                   limited production trials.   Use of
                                   foliar application for soybeans in
                                   2010 will increase as practice be-
                                   comes accepted.
                                         1.  Evaluation Uorkshop Rating:

                                         Panel  '.:   1976 J_;  1985  2  ;  2010   2  .

                                         Panel  2:   1976  1  ;  1985  1  ;  2010   2  .
                                           1.   Dev.  Planning  and  Research Assoc.
                                               Environmental  Implications of
                                               Trends  in Agriculture  and Silvi-
                                               culture, Vol.  1, 200 pages.  1976.
o
             Productivity          Limited research has  shown  yield
                                   increases up to 20 bu/acre  for
                                   soybeans, however farmers" can ex-
                                   pect 0-10 bu/acre increases,  de-
                                   pending on the original  nutrient
                                   status of soils, the  pre-plaht
                                   application, and previous Cropping
                                   pattern.   Time of application,
                                   rate of application,  and concen-
                                   trations  of nutrients must  be
                                   carefully controlled  to  reduce
                                   the potential  for leaf burns
                                   and reduced yields.
                                         2.   Yield increases  with  experimental
                                             use of foliar application  ranged
                                             between 5-20 bu/acre.   Average
                                             yield increases  were  about 9  bu/acre.
                                           2.   "Foliar  fertilizing of soybeans
                                               risky yet."  Crops and Soils
                                               29{7):27-28, Apr., 1977.
             Resource Use          Herbicide and insecticide  use  re-
                                   main unchanged.   Fertilizer use
                                   will remain unchanged to slight
                                   increases.   Cost Is higher for
                                   foliar application  in 1976, but
                                   expected to decrease with  time.
                                   and commercial  adoption of this
                                   practice.
             Pollutant Changes
             in Media:
               Surface Water
There will be less available N
and P on the ground surface for
runoff and this will  cause de-
creases in nutrient losses to
surface water.
3.   Nutrients are absorbed directly
    from the crop leaf instead of
    through the crops root system.
3.  Reference #2
             Pollutant Changes
             in  Media;
              Groundwater
Amount of N available for
leaching is less, and reduc-
tions of N in groundwater will
occur.
             Pollutant Changes
             in  Media:
              Air
Potential drift problems can
result with foliar application.
Timing of applications can help
eliminate this potential nu-
tr1e-.t loss to the air.

-------
                                  Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecological
1985
+1
0
0
Application
Effect Rating I/
2010
+1
0
Subtrend: 7.2 Multiple applications
Factors/Rationale
Reduced nutrient loss
Less leaching
_.__.
 SUMMARY STATEMENT

 (1) Potential  ecological  effects  2/:


 Effects  are expected to be beneficial but of a minor nature.   Less nutrients  will  be available  for runoff at any one
 time.   This would reduce eutrophication in surface water.   There would also be less nitrogen available for leaching.


 (2) Research needs:

    a.   Research  is needed on the long term effects of leaching of other ions with nitrogen and movement of ions down
         in soil profile.

    NOTE:  This is a general research need not specifically related to this practice.
_!/ Rating:  ±  (1  to  5)  where l=minor,  3=moderate,  and 5=major ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial  effect;  a  negative (-)  rating denotes  a negative or adverse effect.

y Include  specification of regional  Implications as needed.

-------
                                        Exhibit 7.2.  Environmental assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:  Crop Production
                                                            Trend:  7.   Methods of Nutrient Application
                                                                      Subtrend:  7.2   Multiple  applications
               Environmental
                  Effects
                                               Conclusions
                                                                             Research
                                                                             Findings
                                                                                                                                   References
             Extensiveness         In 1976, more than 40% of ap-
                                   plications are multiple appli-
                                   cations.  This practice will
                                   continue to increase to 2010.
                                   Mhen the cost of high concen-
                                   tration show release fertili-
                                   zers decrease, this will tend
                                   to replace multiple applica-
                                   tion.
                                                               1.   Evaluation Workshop Ratings:

                                                               Panel  1:   1976  3  ; 1985  3  ; 2010 J_

                                                               Panel  2:   1976  2  ; 1985  3  ; 2010  4
1.  Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
    Environmental Implications of
    Trends in Agriculture and SiTyi-
    culture, Volume 1. 200 pages.1977.
             Productivity          Yield increases from 20-40
                                   bu/acre for corn have been
                                   obtained in research trials.
                                   Farmers can probably expect
                                   an increase in productivity
                                   but yield increases will  not
                                   be this high.
                                                               2.   Yield  increases from 20-40 bu/acre
                                                                   were achieved for corn with multi-
                                                                   ple applications.
2.  "Irrigat1on-fertigat1on round
    table," Crops and Soils 29(7):
    14-21, 1977.
no
Resource Use          Pesticide use remains  the
                      same.   Fertilizer use  will
                      be more efficient and  use
                      should decrease slightly.
                      Increased energy and labor
                      occur with multiple appli-
                      cations.
                                                                            3.   ThO  applications of  nitrogen
                                                                                are  more  efficient and reduce
                                                                                fertilizer use.
    U.S.  Dept.  of Agriculture/U.S.
    Environmental Protection Agency.
    Control  of Water Pollution from
    Cropland, Volume 2, Reprt 710. ARS-
    H-5-2, Washington, D.C., 1976.
             Pollutant Changes
             in Media:
               Surface Water
                      Nutrients  in  surface  water
                      will  remain unchanged or
                      show  slight decreases.   There
                      will  be less  N or P available
                      at any one time for runoff
                      loss.   However, a single ap-
                      plication  of  a better formu-
                      lation could  lesult in  less
                      nutrient in runoff compared
                      to another application.
             Pollutant Changes
             1n Media:
               Groundwater
                      Leaching  of N will  remain
                      unchanged or decrease
                      slightly.   There  is less
                      N available at any  one  time
                      for leaching.
             Pollutant Changes
             1n Media:
               Soil
                      Slight increases  of  soil
                      compaction  will result.
             Pollutant Changes
             in Media:
               Air
                      No change

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology  Workshop
    Trend:   7. Methods of Nutrient Application                  Subtrend:      7.3  Fall  applications
                        Ecological Effect Rating  I/
    TYPE OF EFFECT          19"gF          2UTD                                       Factors/Rationale


    Aquatic                   -2            -3            Significant nutrient  losses  during winter rains

    Terrestrial             	Q_          	0                   	                               	
    Human Health              -1           ,-1            Nitrate runoff and  leaching
    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1) Potential ecological effects 2/:


    Significant effects of an adverse nature are expected on this  aquatic  system  as a  result of  increased nutrient runoff.
_^  This increase occurs principally during winter rains and snow  melt runoff.  Generally,  no appreciable effects are
^  expected on terrestrial systems from a national  perspective.   Nitrate  runoff  into  surface waters and leaching into ground
00  waters pose potential health effects.


    (2) Research needs:

        a.  Research is needed to determine the regional environmental impacts  of fall application.
    \J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where  l=minor, 3=moderate, and  5=major ecological effect.  A  plus  (+)  rating  denotes  a  positive or
       beneficial effect; a negative  (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2/ Include specification of  regional implications as  needed.

-------
                           Exhibit 7.3.  Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:
                                               Trend:  7.  Methods of Nutrient Application
                                                       Subtrend:  7.3  Fall  applications
                                                                              Crop  Production
  Environmental
     Effects
                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Extensiveness          In 1975, 39% of all fertilizers
                      were fall applied.  This prac-
                       tice 1s more important 1n non-
                       irrigated crop production and
                      will Increase in use to 2010.
                                         1.  Evaluation Workshop Rating:

                                         Panel  1:   1976  3 ;  1985  3 ;  2010  4  .

                                         Panel  2:   1976  1 ;  1985  1  ;  2010  1  .
                                                               2.
                                                                   39',', of fertilizers  in  1976  were
                                                                   fall  applied
                                       1.   Dev.  Planning  and  Research  Assoc.
                                           Environmental  Implications  of
                                           TFends  in  Agriculture  and Silvi-
                                           culture, Volume  1,  200 pages. 1977.

                                       2.   National Fertilizer Development
                                           Center. TVA.   1976  Fertilizer
                                           Summary Data,  130  pages, 1976.
Productivity          Productivity values show-large
                      yield decreases to slight yield
                      reduces to no change.  Fall ap-
                      plication 1s not advisable for
                      many areas, especially for coarse1
                      textured,  or fine sandy soils.
                      Fall application of winter wheat
                      and some other crops 1s desir-
                      able.
                                         3.  Productivity from fall  applications
                                             of fertilizer can be greatly de-
                                             creased with some crops and  not
                                             effect yields with other crops.
                                       3.   "Irrigat1on-fert1gat1on  round-
                                           table,"  Crops  and  Soils  29(7):
                                           14-21, 1977.
Resource Use          Pesticide use remains the same.
                      Fertilizer use will remain un-
                      changed or show slight to signi-
                      ficant increases.  The fertili-
                      zer is less efficiently used.
                      Leaching, run-off and denltrl-
                      fication through the winter
                      will reduce the available
                      nutrients 1n the spring.   Fall
                      application of fertilizer is
                      convenient for the farmer and
                      fertilizer manufacturer.
                                         4.   Fall  applied fertilizer 1s  less
                                             efficient.   Winter losses of
                                             leaching and denitr1f1cat1on
                                             will  occur.
                                           U.S.  Dept.  of  Agr1culture/U.S.
                                           Environmental  Protection  Agency.
                                           Control  of  Water  Pollution  from
                                           Cropland, Volume  I,  Report  No.
                                           ARS-H-5-1,  Wash., D.C.,  1975.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
  Surface Water
  Ground Water
  A1r
The potential of N, P, and K 1n
surface water is slightly greater
for fall applied fertilizers 1n
many areas.  Potential leaching
losses and air losses of N are
increased with fall fertiliza-
tions.
Fall  application of fertilizers
is undesirable on some soil  types.
Fertilizer 1s generally limited to
ammonium fertilizers which tend to
reduce leaching.
5.  Reference #3 and #4

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods of Nutrient Application Subtrend: 7.4 Liquid fertilizer
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Ecoloqical
1985
0
0
0
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
-0
Factors/Rationale


    SUMMARY STATEMENT

    (1) Potential ecological effects 2/:

    The effects of liquid fertilizer application are not significantly different from those of solid fertilizer.


~^i
01  (2) Research needs:

        a.  Ongoing research involving  liquid  fertilizers should address the environmental implications.
    I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
    ~  beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2/ Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                           Exhibit 7.4.   Environmental  assessment of  selected  agricultural trends:
                                               Trend:   7.   Methods of Nutrient Application
                                                     Subtrend::  7.4'.  Liquid fertilizer
                                                                             Crop Production
  Environmental
     Effects
                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Extensiveness         In 1975, 30% of all  fertilizers
                      were liquid compared to 8.51, 1n
                      1968.  Use of liquid fertilizers
                      will increase to major levels by
                      2010 and is the fastest growing
                      segment of the fertilizer In-
                      dustry.
                                         1.   Evaluation  Workshop  Rating:

                                         Panel  1:   1976   3  ;  1985  4  ;  2010
                                         2.   Liquid  fertilizer was  30% of all
                                             fertilizers  in  1975.   In 1968, only
                                             8.3£  of all  fertilizers were liquid.
1.  Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
    Environmental Implications of
    Trends in Agriculture and SiTvi-
    culture, Volume 1, 200 pages, 1977.

2.  National Fertilizer Development
    Center, TVA.  1976.  Fertilizer
                                                                                                             Summary Data, 130 pages, 1976.
Productivity          Productivity will  increase
                      slightly with liquid ferti-
                      lizers on a pound  for pound
                      basis.
                                         3.   Production  increases with  liquid
                                             fertilizer  on  a  pound  for  pound
                                             basis.
3.
Allied Chemical, Iowa, public
demonstrations.
Resource Use          Herbicide and insecticide use
                      remain constant.   Fertilizer
                      use decreases slightly.   Labor
                      will decrease.
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
  Surface water
  Groundwater
  Soil
Changes in nutrient pollutants
1n surface and groundwater will
remain unchanged or perhaps show
a very slight decrease.   Pollu-
tant effects of liquid fertilizers
are the same on a pound  for pound
basis.  However, total fertilizer
use will  decrease slightly.

-------
                                 Evaluation Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:    7.  Methods of Nutrient Application	   Subtrend:   7.5 Aerial and floater application,

                    Ecological  Effect Rating  I/
TYPE OF EFFECT          TW5"         27IIJ                                       Factors/Rationale
Aquatic                 	0_         	0_
Terrestrial               +1             +2            Less soil compaction from floaters,

Human Health
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1)  Potential  ecological  effects  2/:


No significant effects can be expected on either  the  aquatic system or human health.  Floater application will have
minor beneficial effects on the terrestrial  system  resulting from less compaction.  Drift problems can be anticipated
from aerial application; however,  the  overall  effects will  not be significant since this type of application represents
a minor part of the total means of application.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Ongoing research involving floater and aerial application should address environmental implications.
II Rating:  ±  (1  to  5)  where  l=minor.  3=moderate,  and  5=major ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes  a positive or
   beneficial  effect;  a  negative  (-)  rating  denotes a negative  or  adverse  effect.

y Include  specification of  regional  Implications as  needed.

-------
                                         Exhibit 7.5.  Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends:
                                                             Trend:  7.  Methods of Nutrient Application
                                                                Subtrend:  7.5  Aerial and floater application
                                                                              Crop  Production
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
              Extenslveness         Extensiveness in 1976 may be
                                    more than 20% of all fertili-
                                    zer applications. I/
                                    This practice will continue
                                    to increase to 2010.
                                         1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings:

                                         Panel  1:  1976  1  ;  1985  2;  2010 J_.

                                         Panel  2:  1976  2  ;  1985  2 ;  2010   3  .
Dev. Planning and Research Assoc.
Environmental Implications of
Trends in Agriculture and Silvi-
culture, Vol. 1. 200 pages, 1977.
CD
              Productivity          Slight productivity Increases are
                                    expected with this practice.
                                    Areas difficult to treat with
                                    conventional fertilizer appli-
                                    cation methods, will benefit
                                    from aerial application.
              Resource Use
                                    Resource use will remain con-
                                    stant, except for labor which
                                    decreases.
              Pollutant Changes
              1n Media:
                Surface water
                Groundwater
                Soil
Data on nutrient pollutants
in surface v/ater, ground-
water, and soil is not avail-
able.  However, it is likely
to remain unchanged.
              Pollutant Changes
              1n Media:
                Air
Increased nutrient losses
will occur with aerial ap-
plication, by drift.
              I/  Ag Chem Corp. manufacturers of floater vehicles, estimated that in 197C 50% of crop acres were transverse.' at least once per year
                  by floater vehicles to spread fertilizer.

                  The National Agricultural Aviation Association estimates thar. less than 5*  of all crop acres are fertilized aerially, 1n 1976.

-------
                                 Evaluation Sheet  for'Trends  in  Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend: 7. Methods
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
of Nutrient
Ecological
1985
0
0
0
Application
Effect Rating I/
2010
0
0
0
Subtrend: 7.6 Improved nutrient placement
Factors/Rationale
	
	
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects  2/:


Improved nutrient placement has the potential  for beneficial  effects  from more effective utilization and less nutrient
loss.  However, the overall effects are not expected to be significant.


(2) Research needs:  None identified.
I/ Rating: ± (1 to 5) v\here l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus  (+) rating denotes a  positive  or
   beneficial effect; a negative  (-} rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

2/ Include specification of regional Implications as needed.

-------
                                          Exhibit  7.6.   Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural trends:
                                                              Trend:   7.  Methods of Nutrient Application
                                                               Subtrend:  7.6   Improved nutrient placement
                                                                                                   Crop  Production
                 Environmental
                    Effects
CO
o
                                                 Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
               Extensiveness          In  1976,  an  estimated  30%  or
                                     more fertilizers  had improved
                                     placement.   This  practice  will
                                     increase  slightly to 2010.
                                                               1.   Evaluation  Workshop  Ratings

                                                               Panel  ::   1976   4  ;  1985  4  ;  2010   4  .
                                                               Panel  ?:   1976   2  ;  1985  3  :  2010 T".
                                           1.   Dev.  Planning  and Research Assoc.
                                               Environmental  Implications of
                                               Trends  in  Agriculture  and  Silvi-
                                               culture, Vol.  1,  200 pages, 1977.
               Productivity          Productivity  may  increase
                                     slightly  with optimum  place-
                                     ment.
                                                               2.   Decreased  P in band applications
                                                                   can give higher yields  than  higher
                                                                   rates  of P in broadcast.  Yields for
                                                                   corn were  6 bu/acre higher for  band
                                                                   application.
                                           2.   Richards,  G.  E.  "Band Appli-
                                               cation:  A better less costly
                                               way  to  fertilize your crops,"
                                               Crops and  Soils  28(9):10-11,
Resource Use          Herbicide and insecticide use
                      remains constant.   Fertilizer
                      use v/ill  remain unchanged or
                      show slight decreases, es-
                      pecially for P requirement.
                      Fertilizer costs and applica-
                      tion costs are reduced with
                      P banding.
3.   Band application of P can decrease
    use requirement by 502! and maintain
    yields.
3.   Richards, G.  E., "Phosphorus
    fertilization:  can we do a
    better job?"   Crops and Soils
                                                                                                                            27(4): 12-14, T9~75
               Pollutant  Changes
               in  Media:
                Surface  water
                Groundwater
                Soil
                      With improved nutrient place-
                      ment, potential  nutrient pollu-
                      tion of surface  water and
                      ground water will  remain un-
                      changed or show  very slight
                      decreases.  Decreases would
                      result from crops  being able
                      to more efficiently use the
                      nutrients.

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                                      Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
     Trend:   7. Methods of Nutrient Application	    Subtrend:  7.7 Irrigation application
                         Ecological  Effect Rating I/
     TYPE OF EFFECT          195?2010                                      Factors/Rationale

     Aquatic                  -1            -1            Greater loss of nutrients in tailwater	
     Terrestrial             	0_          	0_          	""_""	
     Human Health              0            - 0                 	
     SUMMARY STATEMENT
     (1) Potential ecological effects 2/;
     The effects on the aquatic  system are expected to be minor and of an adverse nature resulting  from  a  slight  increase
     of nutrients in tailwaters.   No  significant effects are anticipated on human health or the  terrestrial  systems.
co
     '2) Research needs:
         a.   There is a need  for research in comparing nutrient loss from irrigation and ground  application.
     I/  Rating: ± (1 to 5) v,?iere l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.   A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
        beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
     2/  Include specification of regional Implications as needed.

-------
                                          Exhibit 7.7.  Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:
                                                              Trend:  7.   Methods of Nutrient Application
                                                              Subtrend:   7.7  Irrigation  application
                                                                                                   Crop Production
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                                 Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
               Extensiveness         An estimated 25% of all irri-
                                     gated cropland applied ferti-
                                     lizers in irrigation waters 1n
                                     1976.  Extensiveness will in-
                                     crease slightly by 2010.
                                                               1.   Evaluation Workshop Ratings
                                                               Panel  2:   1976  2  ; 1985  2  ; 2010
                                               Dev.  Planning  and  Research  Assoc.
                                               Environmental  Implications  of
                                               Trends  In  Agriculture  and STTvl-
                                               eulture, Vol.  1, 200 pages,  1977.
               Productivity          Irrigation application lends
                                     itself to multiple applica-
                                     tions and optimal rates and
                                     timing for crops.  With irri-
                                     gation, crop productivity will
                                     always increase.  However,
                                     productivity can be further
                                     increased with irrigation
                                     application of fertilizer.
                                                               2.   Irrigation application of ferti-
                                                                   lizers lends itself to optimal
                                                                   fertilizer management and effic-
                                                                   iency.   Yields  increased an avg. of
                                                                   2C  bu/acre in one study with multi-
                                                                   ple fertilizer applications.  Irri-
                                                                   gation application should apply
                                                                   wfter uniformly across field for
                                                                   maximum  fertilizer efficiency.
                                           2.   "Irrigat1on-fert1gat1on  round
                                               table,"  Crops  and  Soils  29(7):
                                               14-21, 1977.
co
ro
Resource Use          Fertilizer, herbicide,  and in-
                      secticide use remain constant.
                      The cost of fertilizer  that
                      must be used in Irrigation
                      systems is higher.   However
                      these costs are offset  by
                      lower cost of applying  ferti-
                      lizer, and increased ferti-
                      lizer efficiency.
3.  Ccsts for water applied fertilizers
    are higher.   However costs  for
    applying fertilizers are lower.
                                                                                                                        3.  Reference #2
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media:
                 Surface water
                 Groundwater
                 Soil
                      The potential  of nutrient  pollu-
                      tion of surface water,  ground-
                      water,  and soil  with  irrigation
                      application of fertilizers will
                      depend  upon tne irrigation
                      management and scheduling  prac-
                      tices.   Irrigation  application
                      would probably tend to  slightly
                      reduce  nutrient losses.  How-
                      ever, over irrigation or rapid
                      application rates would  increase
                      potential  nutrient  pollutants.
4.  With good irrigation management,
    little N 1s available for
    leaching.
4.  Reference 12
               Pollutant Changes
               1n Media:
                 A1r
                      With  sprinkler Irrigation,  In-
                      creased loss  of nutrients to
                      the air will  occur on  windy
                      days.

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                                      Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
co
CO
    Trend:    8. Using Soil Plant Analysis
                                                             Subtrend:    8.1 Soil plant analysis
    TYPE  OF  EFFECT


    Aquatic

    Terrestrial

    Human Health
                    Ecological Effect Rating _!/
                        H5F5
                                        ±2^

                                         0

                                         0
                           Factors/Rationale

Depends on type of nutrient application	
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:

Higher yields expected in the future will  require  higher  rates of nutrient application.  The effects of soil plant
analysis on the aquatic systems will depend  on  how the  nutrients are applied.  Multiple applications and use of slow
release fertilizer will result in beneficial  effects; however, fertilizer over applied will have adverse effects.
Beneficial effects would reflect rates based  on demand  and a more effective balance between nutrients.  No significant
effects are expected on human health or the  terrestrial systems.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Research involving analytical techniques should address environmental implications.
     If Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
     ~~  beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.
     2J Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                                          Exhibit 8.1.   Environmental assessment of selected agricultural trends:
                                                                    Trend:  8. Using Soil-Plant Analysis
                                                                     Subtrend:  8.1 Soil Plant Analysis
                                                                             Crop  Production
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
          References
OD
               Extensiveness           An  estimated  20-25  percent of crop-
                                      land  was covered  by some type of
                                      soil  analysis  in  1976 while  less
                                      than  5  percent was  covered by plant
                                      analysis.   Since  these  analyses are
                                      normally conducted  no more than once
                                      every three years,  the  maximum crop-
                                      land  that  could be  expected  to be
                                      covered in any given year would be
                                      33  1/3  percent.   It Is  anticipated
                                      that  the annual coverage 1n  2010 will
                                      be  less than  30 percent.
                                         The following ratings  of extensive-
                                         ness were made by the  crop production
                                         panels in connertion with this  trend:
                                              Panel
                                                           1976
Development Planning and Research
Associates, Environmental Implica-
tions of Trends in Agriculture and
Silviculture, Volume I, 200 pp.,
WTT.
                                         Nonirrlgated       3
                                         Crop Production

                                         Irrigatad          ,
                                         Crop Production
              Productivity
              Resource Use
Increases in crop yields can be ex-
pected from the trend towards plant-
soil analysis.
Some increase can be expected in
fertilizer use as a result of the
trend towards greater coverage by
these types of analysis.
              Pollutant Change       Although fertilizer use is expected
              in Media               to  increase,  the greater efficiency
                                     associated with plant-soil analysis
                                     would  tend to decrease nutrient
                                     runoff and leaching.  However, this
                                     reduction can be expected to be
                                     minor.

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                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for  Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:   9.  Alternative  Residual  Disposal	    Subtrend:    9.1  Off-site disposal
                    Ecological  Effect  Rating  I/
TYPE OF EFFECT           19137          2010                                       Factors/Rationale


Aquatic                  _-!__           -2            Increased  eutrophication, accelerated algae  blooms

Terrestrial              .+!._.           +1_            Soil  rehabilitation	
Human Health              -1            -1             Potential  nitrate  pollution of ground water	


SUMMARY  STATEMENT

(1)  Potential  ecological  effects  2/:

The potential  of nitrogen runoff is greatet* for manure than  commercial fertilizer.  The  increase in nitrogen and BOD  in
surface water can be expected to increase eutrophication and to  accelerate  algae blooms.  The organic content of manure
can be expected to contribute to soil  rehabilitation (this assumes  a  reduction  in salt applied to rations).  The
potential of nitrate pollution in ground water poses problems in well water.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  Additional research is needed  on the effects of high sodium content in  rations on soil defloculation.

    b.  The economic feasibility of hauling manure for fertilizer use should  be determined.

    c.  The use of rotations to effectively reduce the potential build-up of copper, arsenic, and sodium found in
        feed rations should be investigated.

    d.  Continued research is needed on the long term effects of nitrates on humans.
I/ Rating:  ±  (1  to  5)  where l=minor,  3=moderate,  and 5=major ecological  effect.  A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
~  beneficial  effect;  a  negative (-)  rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

2/ Include  specification of regional  implications as needed.

-------
                 Environmental
                    Effects
co
CTi
                                         Exhibit  9.1.    Environmental  assessment of selected  agricultural  trends:  Feedlot Operations
                                                                  Trend: 9.  Alternative Residual  Disposal
                                                           Subtrend:  9.1 Off-site Disposal  of  Solids  and  Liquids
                                                                                                                                       Page 1
                                                  Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
Extensiveness         About 2 billion tons of animal  waste
                      are being produced annually with less
                      than a third, or about 500 million
                      tons, generated in feedlots.   Within
                      feedlot operations, waste production
                      is expected to increase by about 30%
                      in 1985 and by 70% in 2010.  The
                      greatest portion of off-site disposal
                      can be expected to be accomplished by
                      land application.  Although land
                      application includes spreading for
                      fertilization of crops as well  as
                      land disposal, most of the off-site
                      application can be expected to be
                      done at the higher disposal rates.
                      Very few states have specifically
                      prescribed maximum allowable rates.
                      Of those few that do have these
                      rates, the typical level is about
                      40 tons per acre per year.  At this
                      rate, the 30% and 70% increase 1n
                      waste production would require a
                      maximum of 4 million additional
                      acres in 1985 and 8 million 1n 2010
                      for disposal.
                                                                               About 1.56 billion  tons  of  animal
                                                                               waste was  produced  annually (1972)
                                                                               including  feedlots, ranqe and  pas-
                                                                               ture, and  farr-s.   (ref.  1)

                                                                               The relation between food production
                                                                               and animal waste  is shown below:
                                                                               (ref. 2)
                                                                                   TJ Produce          Produces
                                                                                 Milk,  1  Ib.         Manure, 2 Ib.
                                                                                 Chicken, 1 Ib.      Manure, 8 Ib.
                                                                                 Beef,  1  Ib.         Manure, 25 Ib.

                                                                               The f3edlot panel of the Evaluation
                                                                               Works lop rated the  extensiveness  of
                                                                               off-site disposal as follows:  (ref.  5)
                                                                                 Sol ids
                                                                                 Liqjids
             1976
              2
              1
(1  * minor effect to  5
 effect)
1985    2010
 3       4
 2       3
    major
1. Inglett. G.E., "The Challenge of
   Waste Utilization," Symposium: Pro-
   cessing Agricultural and Municipal
   Wastes, Avi, West Port, Conn., 1973.

2. Stavenger, P., "The Food Industry
   and Pollution," Food Technology,
   24, 121, 1970.

3. Draft Development Document for Ef-
   fluent Limitations Guidelines and~
   Standard Performance, Feedlot In-
   dustry, prepared for the Environ-
   mental Protection Agency by Ham-
   ilton Standard, 1973.

4. "Control of Pollution from Animal
   Feedlots," Hearings before a sub-
   coraiittee of the Committee on Gov-
   ernment Operations, House of Repre-
   sentatives, 93rd Congress, 1973.

5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
   Environmental  Implications of Trends
   in Agriculture and Silviculture.~
   Phase I-The Evaluation Workshop' Sum-
   mary (DRAFT), prepared for EPA by
   Dev. Planning & Res. Assoc., 1977.
               Productivity          The increased land disposal  of ani-
                                     mal waste will  have both beneficial
                                     and adverse effects on plant pro-
                                     ductivity.   Croo yields associated
                                     with manure application can  generally
                                     be expected to  be equivalent to
                                     yields resulting from commercial
                                     fertilizer.  Yields frequently will
                                     depend on clinatic conditions.  In
                                     dry years,  manure can be expected to
                                     have the greatest beneficial effects.
                                     In wet years commercial fertilizer
                                     will have the greatest beneficial
                                     effects.
                                                                When  optimal  rates of chemical fer-
                                                                tilizers and  animal waste are applied
                                                                on  separate plots, usually the yield
                                                                will  be equal.   In dry years, manure
                                                                produces the  greatest yields; in wet
                                                                years, chemical  fertilizer produces
                                                                the greatest  (ref. 6-7).

                                                                increased  soil salinity resulting
                                                                from  land  application has been found
                                                                to  decrease crop yields,  (ref. 8)

                                                                Applications  of  beef and dairy waste
                                                                have  increased the nitrate-nitrogen
                                                                content of plants to levels poten-
                                                                tially toxic  to  animal health,  (ref.
                                                                                                10-11)
                                                                Copper concentrations 1n grasses re-
                                                                ceiving waste from swine grown on
                                                                high  copper ration were reported
                                                                above 30 ppm, the toxic threshold
                                                                for sheep,   (ref.  12)
                                          6.  Mclntosh,  J.  1.,  and  K.  E.  Varney,
                                             "Accumulative Effects  of Manure  and
                                             N  on  Continuous  Corn  and Clay  Soil.
                                             I.  Growth  Yield,  and  Nutrient  Up-
                                             take  of  Corn, "Agron.  J.,  64:  374-
                                             378,  1972.

                                          7.  Ware,  L.M.,  and  W.  A.  Johnson,
                                             "Poultry Manure  for Vegetable  Crops
                                             —Effects  and Value,  Bull.  386,  Ag-
                                             ricjltural  Exp.  Station, Auburn
                                             Univ., Auburn, Albama, 1968.

                                          8.  Mathers, A.  C. and  B.  A. Stewart,
                                             "Crop Production and  Soil  Analyses
                                             as Affected  by Applications of Cat-
                                             tle Feedlot  Waste," Livestock  Int.
                                             Symposium  on Livestock Wastes,
                                             American Society of Agr. Engr.,  St.
                                             Joseph,  Michigan, 1971.
                                                                                                                                     continued  .  .  .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit   9.1.    (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                      Page 2
                  Environmental
                     Effects
                                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                       References
                Productivity
                  (Continued)
                                         Arsenic content of legumes was found
                                         to  be  unaffected by applications of
                                         poultry litter containing measurable
                                         amounts of arsenic,   (ref. 13)
co
                                          9.  Wal'ingford,  G.  W.,  L.  S.  Murphy,
                                             W.  L.  Powers, and  H.  L.  Manges,
                                             "Effect of Beef-Feedlots Lagoon
                                             Water  on Soil Chemical  Properties
                                             and Growth and Composition of  Corn
                                             Forage," J.  Environmental  Quality
                                             3:74-75, T57T.

                                         10.  Mathers, A.  C.,  and  B. A.  Stewart,
                                             "Corn  Silage  Yield and Soil Chem-
                                             ical Properties  as Affected by
                                             Cattle Feedlot Manure,"  J.  Environ.
                                             Quality, 3:143-147,  1974.

                                         11.  Pratt, P.  R.  S.  Davis,  R.  G. Sharp-
                                             less,  W.  J.  Pugh, and S. E. Bishop,
                                             "Nitrate Content of  Sudangrass and
                                             Barley Forages Grown on  Plots
                                             Treated with  Animal  Manures,"
                                             Agron.  J.,  1974.

                                         12.  Humenik,  F. J.,  R. W. Skaggs,  C. R.
                                             Willey,  and D. Huisingh, "Evalua-
                                             tion of Swine Waste  Treatment  Al-
                                             ternatives,"  Waste Management  Re-
                                             search,  Graphics Corp.,  Washington
                                             D.C.,  1972.

                                         13.  Morrison,  J.  L., "Distribution of
                                             Arsenic from  Poultry Litter in
                                             Broiler Chickens, Soil,  and Crops,"
                                             J.  Agri.  and  Food Chem.. 17:1288-
                                             1290,  1969.
                Resource Use          Increased animal waste production
                                      can be expecte'! to result 1n In-
                                      creased fertilization with manure
                                      which will tend to offset, to a
                                      small degree, the overall com-
                                      mercial fertilizer requirements.

                                      Increased land application can be
                                      expected to increase fly Infestation
                                      with an increase 1n pesticide re-
                                      quirement.  However, the Increase
                                      1n pesticide use 1s not expected to
                                      be significant.
                Pollutant Changes
                1n Media:
                Surface Water
Available research on the possible
pollution of surface water has pri-
marily Involved measurement of
nutrient runoff.  At fertilization
rates (10-20 tons/acre), nutrient
From field experiments in Vermont,
1936-1943:   (ref.  14)
a. Greatest runoff occurred 1n Feb.
   and March;
14.  Medgby,  A.R.,  and  D.E.  Dunklee,
    "Fertility  Runoff  Losses  from Ma-
    nure Spread during the  Winter,"
    Univ. of Vermont,  Ag.  Exp.  Sta.,
    Bull. 523.  1945.
                       continued  .  .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit  9.1.  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                     Page  3
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media:
               Surface Water
                 (Continued)
C»
Co
runoff associated with animal  waste
would be relatively minor and, in
most cases would be less than  the
runoff associated with equivalent
rates of commercial fertilizers.
When animal waste is applied on
frozen ground or in early spring,
runoff up to 30% of the available
nitrogen can be expected.  Research
on high disposal rates have primar-
ily been designed to measure the
effects on crop yield not. nutrient
runoff.  Several experiments in-
volving these rates have shown that
nutrient runoff has not been sig-
nificantly greater than that of un-
treated land.

No specific research is available
directly linking sediment loss with
land disposal.   However, based on
research showing generally reduced
runoff with land disposal, it  can
be concluded that sediment loss
would also be reduced.
b. Average nutrient losses after an
   application of ten tons of un-
   treated manure were:  nitrogen
   equivalent to from 20 to 70 Ibs.
   of sodium pitrate; phosphorus,
   equivalent to from 12 to 25 Ibs.
   of 20% superphosphate; and potas-
   sium, equivalent to from 27 to 55
   Ibs.  of 50% muriate of potash;

c. Volatilization losses were usual-
   ly greater than runoff losses be-
   cause they begin to occur as soon
   as the manure is produced, and
   much of the ammonia is lost into
   the air before runoff occurs.

A study on the application of liquid
dairy waste on sloping frozen land
found that a rate of 130 cumulative
wet tens per hecture increased the
ammonium nitrogen and total coliform
in the runoff.  However, the total
nitrogen measured in the runoff was
not affected,  (ref. 15)

From field experiments in Wisconsin
1966-1959, on Rosetta silt loam soil
the following conclusions were made:
a. Up to 20% of N, 13% of P, and 13%
   of K nutrients in winter applied
   irarure on frozen ground, may be
   lost under conditions favoring
   maximum early spring runoff;

b. Nutrient losses in surface runoff
   from plots having manure applied
   in the summer and incorporated
   into the soil were less than from
   check plots which received no
   manure,  (ref. 16)

A comparison of the effects of win-
ter and spring application of dairy
manure revealed that nutrient losses
from winter applications were ex-
tremely variable—3.4 to 26.9 Kg/ha
of nitrogen.  Spring application re-
sulted in no runoff losses of N, P,
or K.  (ref. 17)
15. Sutton,  A.L.,  D.W.  Nelson,  N.J.
    Moeller, and L.F.  Muggins,  "Appli-
    cation of Anaerobic Liquid  Dairy
    Waste on Sloping Frozen Land,"  pre-
    sented at the 69th Annual Meeting
    of the Amer. Dairy Science  Assoc.,
    Univ. of Cuelph, Canada, 1974.

16. Hinshall, N.E.,  S.A.  Wltzel,  and
    M.S.  Nichols,  "Stream Enrichment
    from  Farm Operations,"  Proc.  Amer.
    Soc.  C1v1l  Engr. Sanitary Engr.,
    Div.  Sr. SA 2:513-524,  1970.

17. Henster, R.F.,  W.H. Enhardt,  and
    L.M.  Walsh, "Effects  of Manure
    Handling Systems on Plant Nutrient
    Cycling," Livestock Waste Manage-
    ment  and Pollution Abatement, Proc.
    Int.  Symposium on Livestock Wastes,
    p. 254-257, Amer.  Soc.  of Agr.  Eng.
    St. Joseph, Michigan, 1971.

18. Young, R.A., "Nutrients in  Runoff
    from  Manure Spread on Frozen
    Ground," Transactions of the ASAE,
    1973.

19. McCaskey, T.A.,  G.H.  Rollins, and
    0. Little, "Water Pollution by
    Dairy Farm Wastes as  Related to
    Method of Waste Disposal,"  Water
    Resources Research Institute Bul-
    letin 18, 1973.

20. Lrose, O.E., A.P. Mazurah,  Leon
    Chesnin, "Animal Waste Utilization
    for Pollution Abatement," Trans-
    actions of the ASAE,  16,1:160-163,
    1973.

21. Lund, Z.F., F. L. Long, B.D. Doss,
    and Luke Mugwira,  "Disposal of
    Dairy Cattle Manure on Soil," In-
    ternational Symposium on Livestock
    Waste at Urbana-Champalgn,  1975.
                                                                                                                                       continued

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                                                                           Exhibit   9.1.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                  Page 4
                  Environmental
                     Effects
                                                  Conclusions
                Pollutant  Changes
                in Media:
                Surface Water
                  (Continued)
Co
              Research
              Findings
From £. study on the effects of veg-
etation cover on dairy manure runoff
the following observations were made:

a. Whe.n manure was applied to frozen
   alfalfa lanH, 30% of the applied
   nitrogen and 6% of the applied
   orthophosphate was lost;

b. Nutrient loss from the alfalfa
   plcts was greater than from un-
   treated plots;

c. When manure was applied to frozen,
   plcwsd land, nutrient losses were
   only slightly greater than those
   frcm the untreated plots,  (ref. 18)

Research was done in Alabama  during
a 27 nonth period between 1969 and
1970 'involving spreading of manure
on grassland plots.  Findings revealed
that the most BOD and nitrate 1n run-
off dtring 1971 from spreading
occured during August, the month of
lowest rainfall; the least occurred
during March.  At 10 to '.1 tons
waste applied annually on grassland,
there was not an appreciable  de-
terioration of runoff water quality
nor buildup soil nitrate, (ref. 19)

Research was conducted in Nebr. with
the objective of determining  the
maximum allowable rate of applying
livestock manure to cultivate crops
without pollution of surface  runoff
or under ground water.  Beef  feedlot
manure was aoplied at levels  of 0, 40,
J20, and 260 tons dry matter/acre and
oisk plowed into the soil at  4, 8, .
and 12 inch depths.  Conclusions made
were that N and sodium displacement
did not pollute the surface runoff
water; however, potassium restricted
the runoff to irriqat'on uses only.
Ground water retained its potable
quality (the 260 ton/acre test area
contributed 7.8 ppm of nitrate nitro-
gen.  Ten ppm 1s the maximum  allow-
able),  (ref 20)
References
                                                                                                                                          continued . .

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                                                           Exhibit   9.1.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                       Page 5
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                     References
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
Surface Water
  (Continued)
                                          In Alabama,  dairy cattle manure was
                                          Incorporated into the surface  (15 cm)
                                          of Not folk sand  loam cropped with
                                          millet  and rye for a period of three
                                          years  and at a rate of 45 mt/ha/yr.
                                          Total  N in run ,ff averaged less than
                                          3 Kg/ra/yr.  (ref. 21)
Pollutant Changes
in Media:
Ground Water
Increased land application of animal
waste can be expected to cause a
greater potential for ground water
pollution.  Nitrate nitrogen and sol-
uble salts have been found 1n ground
water in vicinity of manure applica-
tion sites.
Research conducted 1n California on
the effects of land application of
dairy waste revealed that nitrate
nitrogen and soluble salts were
present in vicinity of the applica-
tion sites, (ref. 22)

In a study in Pennsylvania, liquid
dairy manure was injected on plots
of orchard grass, bluegrass and corn
at ra'es supplying 200 to 600 pounds
of nitrogen on the bluegrass and
orchard grass in the soil water at 3
to 4 feet was approximately two times
the limit for potable water.  The
level decreased 50% in the next grow-
ing season.  It was estimated that
continued annual applications on a
relatively level silt loam soil
should supply not more than 200 to
300 pounds of nitrogen per acre. (ref.
22. Adrlano,  D.C.,  P.P.  Pratt,  and S.E.
    Bishop, "Fate of Organic Forms of
    N and Salt from Land-disposal  Ma-
    nures from Dairies," Livestock
    Uaste Management and Pollution
    Abatement Proc. Int. Symposium on
    Livestock Wastes, P. 243-246,  Amer.
    Soc.  of Agr.  Eng., St.  Joseph,
    Michigan, 1971.

23. Marriott, L.F.  and H.D. Bartlett,
    Animal Waste  Contribution to Ni-
    trate Nitrogen in Soil," Inter-
    national  Symposium on Livestock
    Wastes at Urbana-Champaign, 1975.
                                                                                                      23)
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil
Application of manure can generally
be expected to increase soil  infil-
tration and improve Its water hold-
Ing capacity.  Total  soil nitrogen
can be expected to increase;  however,
research findings have not shown
that the buildup is necessarily at
undesirable levels.
A single application of 13.5 t/ha of
solid dairy manure increased soil
Infiltration rate by 27% in a con-
tinuous corn culture, (ref. 24)

Wet solid beef manure applied at a
rate of 112 t/ha in Texas did not
sign1f1cantly affect the inflltra-
' ion rate. (ref. 25)

Infiltration rates Increased with
manure application rates from 93 to
269 t/ha; but decreased with higher
rates, (ref. 26)

Treated plots had larger yield in-
creases 1n dry years than in wet
years because of Improved water
availability, (ref. 27-28)

Application of manure Increased the
available water capacity of the soil.
(ref. 2?)
24. Zwerman, P.J., A.B. Drlelsma, G.D.
    Oones, S.D. Klausner, and D. Ellis,
    "Rates of Water Infiltration Re-
    sulting from Applications of Dairy
    Manure," Relationship of Agricul-
    ture to Soil and Water Pollution,
    Proc. 1970 Cornell Agricultural
    Waste Management Conf., p. 263-270,
    Graphics Management Corp., Wash-
    ington, D.C., 1970.

25. Swader, F.N., and B.A. Stewart,
    "The Effect of Feedlot Wastes on
    the Water Relations of Pullman
    Clay Loam," ASAE Paper No. 72-959,
    Cornell University, 1972 Annual
    Mtg. ASAE, Hot Springs, Ark.,
    June 27-30, 1972.
                                                                                                                         continued  .  .  .

-------
                                                           Exhibit  9.1.    (Continued)
                                                                                                                                        Page 6
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
              Research
              Findings
            References
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Soil
  (Continued)
Application of manure improved
water availability by decreasing
the force with which it was held In
soil. (ref. 30)

Heavy applications of solid feedlot
waste and dairy manure slurry in-
creased the total  nitrogen in soil.
  (ref. 31-33)
Research conducted in semi-arid
Alberta to determine the effect of
long-term applications of manure on
N, P, and soluble salt content of
cultivated soil under irrigation.
Manure applied annually over a
forty year period at 70 t/ha did
not cause an undesirable buildup
of the nutrients or salts, {ref. 34)
26. Manges, H.L., D.E.  Eisenhauer, R.D.
    Stritzke, and E.H.  Goering, "Beef
    Feedlot Manure and  Soil  Water Move-
    ment," Paper No.  74-2019, presented
    at the 1974 Summer  Meeting, ASAE,
    Stillwater, June  23-26,  1974.

27. Haworth, F., T.V. Cleaver,  and J.M.
    Bray, "The Effects  of Different
    Manurial Treatments on the  Yield
    and Mineral Composition  of  Early
    Potatoes," J. Hort. Sci., 41:225-
    241, 1966.

28. Holliday,  R., P.M. Harris, and
    M.R. Baba, "Investigations  into the
    Mode of Action of Farmyard  Manure.
    I. The Influence  of Soil Moisture
    Conditions on the Response  of Main-
    crop potatoes to  Farmyard Manure,"
    J. Ag. Sci_. 64:161-166,  1965.

29. Gingrich, J.R. and  R.S.  Stauffer,
    "Effects of Long-time Soil  Treat-
    ments on Some Physical Properties
    of Several Illinois Soils," SS
    SAP 19:257-260, 1955.

30. Salter, P.J. and  F. Haworth, "The
    Available Water Capacity of a
    Sandy Loam Soil," J. of  Soil Sc1.
    12:335-342, 1961.

31. Herron, G.M. and  A.B. Erhart,
    "Value of Manure  on an Irrigated
    Calcareous Soil," SSSAP  29:278-281,
    1965.

32. Mathers, A.C., and  B.A.  Stewart,
    "Corn Silage Yield  and Soil Chem-
    ica". Properties as  Affected by
    Cattle Feedlot Manure",  J.  Environ.
    Quality 3:143-147,  1974.

33. Murphy, L.S., G.W.  WalHngford, W.L.
    Powers, and H.L.  Manges, "Effects of
    Solid Beef Feedlot  Wastes on Soil
    Conditions and Plant Growth,"  Waste
    Management Res.,  Proc. 1972 Cornell
    UnivT Agr. Waste  Management Conf, p.
    449-464, Graphic  Mgw. Corp.. Wash-
    ington, O.C., 1972.
                          continued . . .

-------
                                                                         Exhibit   9.1.  (Continued)
                                                                                                    Page 7
                 Environmental
                    Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
                                                                                                                                    References
ro
                                                                     34. Sommerfeldt, Theron G., U. J.
                                                                         Pittman, and R. A. Milne,
                                                                         "Effect of Feedlot Manure on Soil
                                                                         and Water Quality", J. Environ-
                                                                         mental Quality, 2, 4:423-427,

-------
                                     Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology  Workshop
UD
00
    Trend:   10.  Grazing Practices and  Stocking Rates	    Subtrend:  10.1  Continuous  grazing  &  10.2 Specialized grazing

                        Ecological Effect Rating I/
    TYPE OF EFFECT          i§852UTTJ                                       Factors/Rationale


    Aquatic                   +1            +2            Beneficial  effects  from reduced  runoff	

    Terrestrial                +2            +3            Species diversity  increased
    Human Health               0_           . 0            No significant  effect  on  ground water
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:


The reduced runoff can be expected to have beneficial  effects  on  surface water.  The increased productivity in vegetation
will increase species diversity.  No significant effect -is  anticipated on ground water.


(2) Research needs:

    a.  There is a need for research on nutrient and  sediment  runofr  associated with the various specialized systems.
    V Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and 5=major ecological effect.  A plus  (+) rating denotes  a  positive or
       beneficial effect; a negative (-) rating denotes a negative or adverse effect.

    2] Include specification of regional implications as needed.

-------
                          Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2.
                                                Environmental  assessment  of selected agricultural trends:  Range and Pasture Management
                                                               Trend:   10.   Grazing "ractlces and Stocking Rates
                                           Subtrend,:  10.1 i 10.2.   Continuous  grazl ig  and  10.2  Specialized grazing
                                                                                                                                                    Page 1
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                        References
               Extenslveness
10
                                     Information was not found in the
                                     literature indicating the number
                                     of acres currently under the var-
                                     ious grazing systems:  continuous
                                     vs.  specialized.   Estimates  on
                                     range can be made from data  con-
                                     tained In reference 1, making cer-
                                     tain broad assumptions.   That study
                                     made estimates for 1970 and  2000
                                     concerning four strategies:   "some
                                     grazing," "extensive," "intensive,
                                     and  "environmental management."
                                     Assuming that the first two  strat-
                                     egies correspond with continuous
                                     grazing and the latter two with
                                     specialized grazing,  the extensive-
                                     ness of the two systems are  esti-
                                     mated as follows for  1970 and 2000.
System      1970   2000
             (mil.  ac.)
Continuous  641.2   515.3
                                                                  -19.6%
1.   Th; following  strategies were  de-
    veloped under  Alternative  19,  which
    represents an  accumulation of  know-
    lelge and constraints  acquired in
    tha evaluation of previous alter-
    natives:

    Strategy B:  some grazing  - no at-
    tempt to achieve  livestock distri-
    bution.

    St-ategy C:  extensive management -
    relative uniform  livestock distri-
    bution with  no attempt at  maxi-
    mizing forage  production.

    Strategy D:  Intensive  management -
    Tiiadmizing forage production using
    all available  technology.

    Strategy E:  environmental  manage-
    ment - livestock  production maxi-
    mized.
                                                                                   1.  U. S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                       The Nations Range Resources,
                                                                                       Forest Resource, Rep. No. 19,
                                                                                       1972.
Specialized 108.1 273.8
(No estimates are made on





+153. 3%
pasture)





Strategy
B
C
Subtotal
D
£
Subtotal
1970
(inil .
236.2
405.0
64771
57.9
50.2
T087T
2000
ac.]
155.8
359.5
5T57I
208.6
65.2
273T
               Productivity          Specialized grazing  systems  can  gen-
                                     erally be expocted to  produce  a  higher
                                     quality forage  than  continuous systems.
                                             Rotation  grazing  increased  litter
                                             cover,  uecreased  bare  soil,  in-
                                             creased water  absorption  (Infiltra-
                                             tion),  decreased  sod compaction,
                                             and  increased  basal cover of desir-
                                             able plants.   (However, there was
                                             no  significant difference in total
                                             basal cover of all  plants.)

                                             Research  1n semi-desert sagebrush-
                                             bunch grass range found that vege-
                                             tation  Increased  22 percent 1n den-
                                             sity under continuous  grazing and 20
                                             percent under  rotation.
                                               Ratliff,  R.  D.,  0.  N.  Reppert,  and R.
                                               0.  McConnen, "Pest-rotation  grazing
                                               at  Harvey Valley ...  range health,
                                               cattle  gains,  costs,"  Forest Service
                                               Research  Paper PSW-77,  Pacific  S.W.
                                               Forest  and Range Exp.  Sta..  Berkeley,
                                               Calif., 1972.
                                                                                                                            Hyder, D.N., and W. A. Sawyer,  "Ro-
                                                                                                                            tation-deferred grazing as  compared
                                                                                                                            to  season-long grazing on sage-
                                                                                                                            brush-bunchgrass 1n Oregon," J.
                                                                                                                            Range Management 4:30-34, 195T7
                                                                                                                                                    Continued  .  .

-------
                                                                 Exhibit 10.1 & 10.2.   (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                    Page 2
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
           Research
           Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
UD
en
                                                                             4.  Research in Utah involving rota-
                                                                                 tion and continuous grazing on
                                                                                 crested wheat grass found that
                                                                                 thiire was no significant differ-
                                                                                 ence in 11\j basal  area among ro-
                                                                                 tation grazing,  continuous grazing,
                                                                                 and continuous grazing and delayed
                                                                                 10 days.

                                                                             5.  In Medicine Bow National Park, plant
                                                                                 cover density improved among three
                                                                                 systems:  continuous,  rotation, and
                                                                                 rest-rotation; however, the Improve-
                                                                                 ment was greater among rotation and
                                                                                 rest-rotation.

                                                                             6.  In the northern plains, plant density
                                                                                 declined from 50-60 percent to 30-40
                                                                                 percent under continuous grazing.
No sianificant difference in vegeta-
tion density was found between con-
tinuous and rotation grazing; al-
though differences were found in  the
effects of Individual  species.
                                                                             8.  In a five-year study in Texas,  basal
                                                                                 cover Increased 2.7 percent under
                                                                                 rotation grazing and 6.7 percent undt-
                                                                                 continuous.
                                                                             9.  A nine-year study of grazing in
                                                                                 Alberta found no differences in
                                                                                 Increased ground cover by the main
                                                                                 forage species, forbs, or shrubs.
                                                                            10.  A six-year study of grazing in        10.
                                                                                 Western Canada found that grasses
                                                                                 Increased in basal  area from 7.3
                                                                                 percent to 7.4 percent under rota-
                                                                                 tional systems and  decreased from
                                                                                 7.9 percent to 7.2  percent under
                                                                                 continuous.
                                           Freschknecht,  N.C.,  and L.  E.
                                           Karris, "Grazing Intensities  and
                                           Systems on Crested Wheat Grass
                                           in Central Utah; Response of
                                           Vegetation and Cattle," Tech.
                                           Bull.  No.  1388, Forest  Service,
                                           USOA,  Wash.,  D.C., 1968.
Johnson, W.M., "Rotation, Rest-
Rotation, and Season-long Grazing
on a Mountain Range 1n Wyoming,"
Forest Service Research Paper
RH-14, Rocky Mt. Forest and Range
Exp. Sta., Fort Collins, CO,1965.

Rogler, G.A., "A Twenty-five Year
Comparison of Continuous and Ro-
tation Grazing in the Northern
Plains," J. Range Management,
4:35-41, 1951.

Mcllvain, E.H., and D. Savage,
"Eight-year Comparisons of Con-
tinuous and Rotational Grazing
on the Southern Plains Experi-
mental Range,"  J.  Range Hanage-
ment, 4:42-47, 1$5T

Fisher, C.E., and P.T. Marion,
"Continuous and Rotation Grazing
on Buffalo and Tobasa Grassland,"
J. Range Management, 4:48-51,
1951.

Smoliak, S., "Effects of Deferred-
Rotation and Continuous Grazing on
Yearling Steer Gains and Short
Grass Prairie Vegetation of
Sovtheastern Alberta," J. Range
Management, 13:239-243, 1960.

Hubbard, W.A., "Rotation Grazing
Studies in Western  Canada,"
J. Range Management. 4:25-29,
1951.
                                                                                                                                              Continued ... .

-------
                                                                  Exhibit  10.1 &  10.2.    (Continued)
                                                                                                                                              Page 3
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
                                                                              11.   In a  study of native grasses in
                                                                                   the rolling plains of Texas, de-
                                                                                   ferred-rotation systems were found
                                                                                   to produce vegetation as well as
                                                                                   better thar, continuous systems.
                                                                                    11.  Mathis, Gary W., and M. H. Koth-
                                                                                        mann, "Response of Native Range
                                                                                        Grasses to Systems of Grazing
                                                                                        and Grazing Intensity," Agron-
                                                                                        omic Research in the Texas
                                                                                        Rolling Plains, PR-2626, p-22-23,
                                                                                        1968.
cr,
               Groundwater
               Soil
                                                                              12.  Three reports found deferred-
                                                                                  rotation systems to be generally
                                                                                  of  little or no  advantage to
                                                                                  vegetation.  All of the reports
                                                                                  agree that the maximum gains per
                                                                                  head can be achieved with moder-
                                                                                  ate continuous grazing.
                                                                                    12.  Clarke, S.E., E.W. Tisdale, and
                                                                                        N.A. Skoglund, "The Effects of
                                                                                        Climate and Grazing Practices on
                                                                                        Shortgrass Prairie Vegegation 1n
                                                                                        Southern Alberta, and Southwestern
                                                                                        Saskatchewan," Canadian Dept. Agr.
                                                                                        Tech. Bull. 46. 53 p., 1943.

                                                                                    13.  Whitman, W., F. W. Christensen, and
                                                                                        E. A. Helgeson, "Pasture Grasses
                                                                                        and Pasture Mixtures for Eastern
                                                                                        North Dakota," N. Dak. Agr. Exp.
                                                                                        Stat. Bull. No. 327, 1943.

                                                                                    14.  Rogler, G.A., R. J. Lorenz, and H.
                                                                                        Schoof, "Progress with Grass,"
                                                                                        N. Dak. Agr. Exp. Sta. Bull. No.
                                                                                        439, 15 p., 1962.
               Resource Use          The trend toward specialized
                                     grazing systems  would not
                                     have any direct  impact on
                                     resource requirements.
               Surface Water         The generally improved  vege-
                                     tation under socialized
                                     systems would tend to reduce
                                     sediment and nutrient runoff.
                                         13.   There is  no literature  available
                                              which directly link  runoff  rates
                                              with the  various  grazing  systems.
Increased leaching associated
with improved vegetation may
potentially reduce the qual-
ity of groundwater.
Trend toward specialized systems
would have favorable impacts
on soil conditions.
14.   Rotation grazing decreased bare
     soil, increased the infiltration
     rate and decreased compaction.
                                                                                                                        14.  Reference 2.

-------
                                  Evaluation  Sheet  for Trends  in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
Trend:  10. Grazing Practices and Stocking Rates	Subtrend:  10.3 Complementary forage seedings

                    Ecological  Effect  Rating  II
TYPE OF EFFECT           195?2010                                       Factors/Rationale


Aquatic                 	0_          	0_           Potential increase in runoff (during renovation)

Terrestrial             	0.           -1            Plant diversity decreased with monoculture	

Human Health               o             0                 	
SUMMARY  STATEMENT

(1)  Potential  ecological  effects  2/:

The  overall  ecological  effect  from this trend is expected to be relatively insignificant.   The growing of tame grass
can  be expected  to  have a minor negative effect in 2010 resulting from a decrease in plant diversity.


 (2)  Research needs:

     a.   This practice  is  currently in the experimental stage.  As the system is further developed,.research is needed
         on its environmental impact.
_!/ Rating:  ±  (1  to  5) where  l=minor,  3=moderate,  and  5=major ecological  effect.   A plus  (+)  rating denotes a positive or
   beneficial effect; a  negative  (-)  rating  denotes a negative or adverse effect.

2/ Include  specification of  regional  implications as  needed.

-------
                                   Exhibit 10.3.  Environmental  assessment of selected agricultural  trends:   Range and  Pasture Management
                                                               .  Trend:   10.   Grazing  Practices  and  Stocking  Rates
                                                               Subtrend:   10.3  Complementary  Forage Seedings
                                                                                                                                             Page 1
                Environmental
                   Effects
                                                 Conclusions
               Research
               Findings
                                                                                                                                    References
              Extensiveness         Information is not available 1n
                                    the literature from which esti-
                                    mates can be made on the exten-
                                    siveness of trends towards comple-
                                    mentary forage seedings.  The
                                    range and pasture panel  estimated
                                    the extensiveness to be of minor
                                    importance in 1976 but expected
                                    it to be of moderate significance
                                    in 2010.
1.  The range and pasture (Work-
    shop) assigned the following
    extensiveness ratings:
    IL'i
      1
2010

  3
1.   U.S. Environmental  Protection
    Agency, Environmental  Inplica-
    tions of Trends in  Agriculture
    and Silviculture:   Phase I - The
    Evaluation Workshop Summary (Draft)
    Prepared by Development Planning
    and Research Associates, 1977.
              Productivity          Productivity in both forage and
                                    beef is enhanced under this sys-
                                    tem.  Improvement in vegetation
                                    can be expected with less  pressure
                                    on ranges from overgrazing.
00
2.  Permanent pastures used (under
    complementary forage seeding
    systems) balance the yearly
    forage supply and prevents over-
    grtzing.  Increased production
    has been shown in forage-produc-
    tioi studies involving native
    prairie and crested wheatgrass.

3.  A comparison of continuous grazing
    and a system using crested wheat-
    grass and native grass found that
    herbage production was about the
    sairw under each system even though
    the latter system supported 32 per-
    cent; more animal unit months of
    grazing and produced 70 percent
    more pounds of beef per acre.

4.  A comparison of grazing under a con-
    tinuous system and under a system
    utilizing 20 percent crested wheat-
    grass, 50 percent native grass, and
    30 percent Russian wlldrye found that
    25.6 acres were required per animal
    unit under the continuous system as
    opposad to 11.4 acres under the
    complementary system.
                       Stoddart,  L.A.,  A.  D.  Smith, and
                       T.  W.  Box, Range Management.
                       McGraw-Hill,  New York, N.Y.,
                       1975.
                       Lodge, R.W., "Complementary Grazing
                       Systems for Sandhills of the
                       Northern Great Plains," J. Range
                       Management 16:240-244, 1561!
                                                                                                                           Smoliak, S., "Grazing Studies on
                                                                                                                           Native Range, Crested Wheatgrass
                                                                                                                           und Russian Wildrye Pastures,"
                                                                                                                           J. Range Management. 21:47-50,
                                                                                                                           1968.
              Resource  Use           The  utilization  of this  system  in-
                                    creases  the  requirement  for  ferti-
                                    lizers,  pesticides and land  with  the
                                    provision  of additional  pasturage
                                    (Reference 2).
                                                                                                                                            Continued  .  .  .

-------
Page 2
Environmental
Effects Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
Surface Water         The increasing use of this system
                      can be expected to have both short-
                      term and long-term effects on the
                      quality of surface water.  In the
                      short-term, potential pollution by
                      nutrients and pesticides may occur
                      during pasture renovation.  In the
                      long term, decreases in sedimenta-
                      tion can be expected with improved
                      vegetation cover with prevention of
                      overgrazing.  The overall impact
                      should be relatively minor.
                                        For  information on the effects of over-
                                        grazing, refer to research findings in
                                        Subtrend 10.4.
 Groundwater
                      Potential pollution from nutrients
                      and pesticides can be expected from
                      pasture renovation.  The overall
                      impact is considered to be minor.
 son
The overall  Impact of this trend 1s
expected to  be minor.  A possible
reduction in soil compaction would
occur with the decrease in over-
grazing.  Potential soil pollution
may occur with pasture renovation.

-------
                                      Evaluation Sheet for Trends in Agriculture/Ecology Workshop
o
CD
Trend: 10. Grazing
TYPE OF EFFECT
Aquatic
Terrestrial
Human Health
Practices
Ecological
1985
+1
+1
0
ana Stocking Rates
Effect Rating I/
2010
+1
+3
0
Subtrend: 10.4 Controlled livestock qrazinq (proper use)
Factors/Rationale
Greater plant diversity
	
SUMMARY STATEMENT

(1) Potential ecological effects 2/:


This subtrend is expected to have a minor beneficial  effect on the aquatic  system.  Greater  plant diversity would have
a beneficial effect on the terrestrial system.   This  effect was expected  to be moderate  by 1985.



(2) Research needs:


    a.  There is a need for research of the nutrient  and  sediment runoff  associated with controlled grazing.
    \J Rating: ± (1 to 5) where l=minor, 3=moderate, and  5=ma.jor  ecological  effect.   A plus (+) rating denotes a positive or
       beneficial effect; a negative  (-) rating denotes a  negitive  or  adverse effect.

    2/ Include specification of regional implications  as  needed.

-------
                 Environmental
                    Effects
rv>
o
                                    Exhibit 10.4.  Environmental assessment of selected agricultural  trends.  Range and Pasture Management
                                                                  Trend:  10.  Grazing Practices'and  Stocking Rates
                                                          Subtrend:  10.4  Controlled livestock grazing (Proper use)
                                                                                                                                               Page 1
                                                  Conclusions
                                                                             Research
                                                                             Findings
                                                        References
               Extensiveness         In 1970, an estimated 85.7
                                     million acres or 10% of the
                                     grazed forest-range was being
                                     overgrazed; close to 85% of
                                     this occurred in the Eastern
                                     forests.  The goal under the
                                     Forest and Rangeland Renew-
                                     able Resource Planning Act
                                     of 1974 is to reduce the over-
                                     grazed areas to zero by 2000.
                                     No estimates are made on over-
                                     grazing on pastures.
                                                              1.  The following acres of forest-
                                                                  range were under exploitive
                                                                  management (overgrazing) in 1970:
                                                                             Total
                                                              Ecosystem      grazed
                                                                      ~    (miTTTE.)

                                                              Western range   360.8
                                                              Western forests  97.2
                                                              Great Plains    217.1
                                                              Eastern forests 159,9
                                                              Total           835.0
                                                                              The exl.ensiveness of the trend towards
                                                                              proper stocking rates for both range
                                                                              and fatture was rated as follows:
                                               U.S. Department of Agriculture,
                                               The Nations Range Resources,
                                               Forest Resource, Rep.  No.  19,
                                               1972.
                                                                                   1976
                                                                                             1985

                                                                                              3
                                                                                                       1985
                                                                                                             U.S. Environmental  Protection
                                                                                                             Agency, Environmental  Implica-
                                                                                                             tions of Trends in  Agriculture
                                                                                                             and Silviculture:Phase I -
                                                                                                             The Evaluation Workshop Summary,
                                                                                                             Prepared by Development Planning
                                                                                                             and Research Associates, Inc.1977.
Productivity          The  trend  towards  proper
                      stocking rates  will  increase
                      the  production  and quality
                      of forages  on ranges  and to
                      a lesser degree on pastures.
2.  High-condition, prop'fly grazed range  2.
    will produce more pounds of usable
    forage than the total  production in
    pounds of forage from the low-condi-
    tion, overused range.

3.  A study of grazing in Kansas found     3.
    that heavily grazed pasture provided
    an average of only 121  days grazing
    while moderately and lightly grazed
    pastures sustained 180 days Of use.

4.  Frequent studies cf effects of dif-    4.
    ferent intensities of grazing upon
    vegetation have shown that heavy
    grazing universally reduces the ca-
    pacity of the range and causes un-
    desirable vegetation changes.

5.  A study on grazing effects on vege-    5.
    tation on South Dakota rangeland
    found that over twice as much live
    vegetation, standing dead and mulch
    was produced under light grazing as
    under heavy.

6.  Heavy grazing reduces the preferred    6.
    forage species and pron.otes the In-
    vasion on the range of less desirable
    forages.
Bell, A.M., Range!and Management
for Livestock Production, Umv.
of Okla. Press, Norman,  OK 1973.
                                                                                                                             Launchbaugh,  J.L.,  "The  Effect  of
                                                                                                                             Stocking  Rate on  Cattle  Gains and
                                                                                                                             on  Native Shortgrass Vegetation 1n
                                                                                                                             West-central  Kansas, '  Kan. Agr.
                                                                                                                             Expt.  Sta.  Bull.  394,  1957.

                                                                                                                             Stoddart, L.A., A.  D.  Smith, and
                                                                                                                             T.  W.  Box,  Range  Management,
                                                                                                                             McGraw-Hill,  New  York, N.Y.,1975.
                                                                                                                             Hanlon,  C.  L.,  A.  R.  Kuhlman,
                                                                                                                             C.  J.  Erickson, and J.  K.  Lewis,
                                                                                                                             "Grazing Effects on Runoff and
                                                                                                                             Vegetation  on Western South
                                                                                                                             Dakota Rangeland," J. Range
                                                                                                                             Management, 23:418-42,,  1970.

                                                                                                                             Oar-^son, D.A.,  "Responses  of
                                                                                                                             Individual  Plants  to  Harvesting,"
                                                                                                                             Botanical Review.29:532-594.1963.

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                                                                          Exhibit   13.4.  (Continued)
                 Environmental
                    Effects
               Resource Use
no
o
ro
                                                                                                                                              Page 2
                                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
                                     The trend toward proper
                                     stocking rates will  tend to
                                     decrease the requirements for
                                     pesticide and fertilizer in
                                     range and pasture preser-
                                     vation.   The overall  reduc-
                                     tion is  expected to  be
                                     minor.
               Surface Water         Studies were not found in the
                                     literature which related
                                     stocking rates specifically
                                     to sedimentation and nutrient
                                     runoff.  However, based on a
                                     number of studies on runoff it
                                     can be concluded that the trend
                                     towards proper stocking rates
                                     will  reduce nutrient and sedi-
                                     ment loadings in surface water.
                                         A study of grazing  effects  on  runoff
                                         on western South Dakota  rangeland
                                         found that:
                                         a.  Seasonal  means  of runoff associ-
                                             ated with light,  moderate,  and
                                             heavy grazing were significantly
                                             different from  each  other.
                                         b.  Watersheds with heavy grazing
                                             ha 'e runoff from short, intense
                                             storms as well  as from  long dur-
                                             at" on storms.
                                         c.  Runoff from long duration  storms
                                             maybe as  much from lightly grazed
                                             watersheds as from the  heavy and
                                             moderate.
                                         7.  In the California winter grass-
                                             land, research  found that  heavily
                                             grazed plots yielded 9.25  inches
                                             while lightly grazed yielded only
                                             4.02 inches.

                                         8.  A study of the  effects  of  grazing
                                             on erosion and  runoff in the
                                             Chaparral watersheds in central
                                             Arizona  found that runoff  was not
                                             affected  by grazing  intensities.
                                       Reference 5
                                                                                                                        7.  Leacos, L.G., "Water yield as In-
                                                                                                                            fluenced by Degree of Grazing 1n
                                                                                                                            the California Winter Grasslands,
                                                                                                                            J. Range Management.


                                                                                                                        8.  Rich, L. R., and H. G. Reynolds,
                                                                                                                            "Grazing in Relation to Runoff
                                                                                                                            and Erosion in Some Chaparral
                                                                                                                            Watersheds in Central Arizona,
                                                                                                                            J. Range Management, 16:322-326,
                                                                                                                            1963.
               Groundwater
The trend towards proper
stocking rates is expected to
increase leaching of nutri-
ents into groundwater.
Infiltrometer studies conducted on
native rangeland at Cottonwood,
S. Dak., showed that during the
first 30 minutes of rainfall  the
water intake rate on heavily used
pasture was 1.40 inches/hr. while
on lightly used, it was 3.19 inches.
Rauzi, F-. and C. L. Hanson,
"Water Intake and Runoff as
Affected by Intensity of Grazing,
J. Range Management, 19:351-356,
1966.
               Soil
High stocking rates results in
soil compaction and increased
erosion (Ref. 9).  Consequently
the trend towards proper stocking
rates can be expected to enhance
soil stabilization.
                                                                                                                       10.  U.S. Department of Agriculture,
                                                                                                                            RPA-ARecommended Renewable  Re-
                                                                                                                            lource Program, Forest  Service
                                                                                                                            Environmental Statement,  1976.
                                                                                                                                          Continued . . .

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                                                           Exhibit 10.4.   (Continued)                                                  pa e  3
  Environmental                                                               Research
     Effects                       Conclusions                                Findings                                 References


A1r                   Optimizing stocking rates 1s
                      not expected to effect air
                      quality except indirectly
                      through improved ground
                      cover (Reference 9).

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                                APPENDIX B

               DETAILED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF SELECTED
                           SILVICULTURAL TRENDS
The five trends identified in Phase I  which  were selected  for assessment in
Phase II are listed in Exhibit B-l.  A total  of 16 subtrends  were evaluated.
A literature search was conducted for each subtrend's  extensiveness  of use,
productivity effects, changes in resource use,  pollutant changes  by
media, and other environmental effects.

The information obtained from literature searches is  summarized  in Exhibits
1.1 through 5.1.  To the extent possible, quantitative data were  sought
and included.   Also, the extensiveness ratings  arrived at  in  the  Phase I
evaluation workshop are included for each subtrend.   These extensiveness
ratings were based on an index scale of 1 to 5, with  one representing minor
and five major; and, these ratings reflect the  judgments of the  Composite
Phase I panel  of silvicultural professionals.
          Exhibit  B-l.
Summary of selected Phase II  trends  and
 subtrends in silviculture
             Trend
                            Subtrend
 1.   Access  to  Timber  Resource
 2.   Site  Preparation
 3.   Log  Extraction


 4.   Utilization



 5.   Cutting  System
             1.1 Permanent road construction
             1.2 Road maintenance
             1.3 Project road construction
             1.4 Road reconstruction

             2.1 Log extraction
             2.2 Mechanical  preparation
             2.3 Burning prescription
             2.4 Chemical  treatment
             2.5 Fertilizer treatment
             2.6 Soil moisture control

             3.1 Harvest unit layout
             3.2 Equipment use and development

             4.1 Extraction residue recovery
             4.2 Minimum size and quality extension
             4.3 Species use enlargement

             5.1 Clearcutting
            _—                         _______

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                                                    Exhibit  1.1.   Environmental assessment  of  selected  s1lv1cultural  trends
                                                                     Trend:   1.  Access  to  Timber  Resource
                                                                   Subtrend:   1.1  Permanent Road Construction
                                                                                                                                                        Page  1
                  Environmental
                     Effects
                                                   Conclusions
                                                                             Research
                                                                             Findings
                                                       References
                Extenslveness          New road  construction 1s  an  activity
                                      limited almost completely to the
                                      West in gaining access to uncut old
                                      growth.  It will continue through
                                      2010, but will be completed  shortly
                                      thereafter.
ro
o
en
                                                               1, Evaluation Workshop Ratings—

                                                                  1976  3 ; 1985  2 ; 2010  1 ,

                                                               2. Road construction will proceed
                                                                  at between 9,000 and 11,000
                                                                  miles per year.

                                                               3. There are now 248,000 miles
                                                                  In logging road systems of the
                                                                  Pacific Coast, with 6,200 miles
                                                                  rebuilt each year.
                                          1,  Development  Planning and  Research
                                             Associates,  "Environmental  Implica-
                                             tions  of Trends  in Agriculture and
                                             Silviculture", Vol. I,  200  pp.,
                                             1977.

                                          2.  U.S.  Forest  Services,  RPA - A
                                             Recommended  Renewable  Resource
                                             Program, U.S.  Dept. Agr1.,
                                             650 pp.  1976.

                                          3.  U.S.  Environmental  Protection
                                             Agency,  Logging  Roads  and Pro-
                                             tection  of Water Quality, Region
                                             X,  312 pp. 1975.
                Productivity          Productivity of Western forest re-
                                      sources will be linked directly to
                                      the amount of new road construction,
                                      since old growth timber will  supply
                                      most of Western output.
Resource Use          Forest land will  be  taken  out  of
                      production by construction of  the
                      permanent road system with a reduc-
                      tion 1n the forest resource base.
                      No research was found revealing any
                      estimate of areas Involved.

                      There is a need for  equipment  de-
                      signed to construct  roads  of
                      smaller dimension but capable  of
                      handling logging traffic.   Road
                      design and layout will be  planned
                      more Intensively.
4. For each square mile of land har-
   vested, 5 miles of road must be
   built.

5. Road building equipment for high-
   way construction has been used  for
   forest access roads.  It 1s over
   built for the job.

6. Road location and design are being
   examined with option of examining
   many alternatives through use of
   computer technology.
4. Summer, H. C., "Managing; Steep
   Land for Timber Production 1n the
   Northwest", J. Forestry 71(5):

5. U.S. Forest Service, "Region 6
   Timber Road Construction Audit",
   U.S. Dept. AgrL, 1973.

6. Burke D., "New Tools Allow Ex-
   amination of Alternatives Speedi-
   ly", Forest Industries. Vol. 102
   (7), p, 46, J975.
                Pollutant Changes
                in Media:
                Surface Water -
                Sediments
                      Road construction will  continue to
                      create sediment loadings  despite
                      Improved road construction prac-
                      tices; however, practices should
                      reduce the adverse Impacts.   Off-
                      setting the effects of  better prac-
                      tices will be the effects of entering
                      Increasingly steeper and  more dif-
                      ficult terrain for road building.
                      Roads once constructed  and stabil-
                      ized will produce Uttlt  added
                      sediment yield.
7. Available literature did not pro-
   vide any specific estimates of the
   effects of road construction, but
   sediment production 1s much higher
   from road building than from any
   other activity.

8. Average suspended sediment In
   Western Oregon streams 1s 1.9 to
   131 tons per acre.  Eighty per-
   cent of sediment production 1s
   from roads, 20 percent from
   logging.
7, Megahan, W. F. and J. W. K1dd,
   "Effects of Logging Roads on
   Sediment Production Rates In
   Idaho Bathollth," U.S. Dept.
   Agrl., For. Serv. Res. Pap. Int.
   123. 1972.

8. Anderson, H.W., "Suspended
   sediment discharge as related to
   stream flow topography, soil and
   land use," Transaction, Am. Geo-
   physical Union, 35(2) 268-281,
   1953.
                                                                                                                                     continued  ,  .  ,

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                                                                           Exhibit 1.1  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                       Page 2
                  Environmental
                     Effects
                                                   Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                References
                Hater  Yield


                Water  Flow
                Water  Quality
ro
o
01
Pollutant Changes
In Media: Soil
               Pollutant Changes
               1n Media: Air
               Other  Environ-
               mental Effects:

               Aesthetics
                      No appreciable change from present
                      rates.

                      Depending on degree of engineering
                      and precautions taken to handle
                      peak storm flow along and under
                      roads, flow could be affected with
                      peak bursts 1f ditches or culverts
                      are obstructed.

                      Water quality in watersheds where
                      road construction occurs will
                      probably suffer less 1n future
                      than it has in the past.  Effects
                      are not felt very far downstream.
                                                                               No Information 1s available on the
                                                                               predictions of change.
Mass wasting will be a continuing
problem of some severity, but
probably lessened with greater
attention to protection.
9. In certain fragile areas of the
   West, slump and mass wasting
   occur as a result of road con-
   struction - as much as 700 times
   that of undisturbed forests on
   steep ground.
9. Swanston, 0. IV & F.J. Swanson,
   "Timber Harvesting Mass Erosion
   and Steepland Forest Geomorpho-
   logy in the Pacific Northwest",
   Geomorphology and Engineering,
   199-221,  Donald R. Coates,
   Editor, Dowden, Hutchinson and
   Ross Inc., Stroudsburg, Pa.,
   1976.
                      Short term dust creation will  occur,
                      but It will  occur generally in re-
                      mote areas away from human habita-
                      tion.  The consequence of this dust
                      1s not known.
                      New roads are being designed to
                      minimize visibility for distant
                      viewers by the NFS.  While the
                      roads will still  be unpleasant
                      for many viewers,  the Impacts
                      should be lessened.
                                         10.  Computer technology 1s  used
                                             1n selecting road  locations
                                             from many alternatives.
                                         10.  Burke, D., "Automated Analysis of
                                             Timber Access Road Alternatives,"
                                             U.S.  Dept. AgrL, For. Service
                                             Pac.  Northwest Forest and Range
                                             Experiment Sta. PNW. 123, 1976.

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                                                    Exhibit 1.2.   Environmental  assessment of selected sllvlcultural  trends
                                                                     Trend:   1.   Access to Timber Resource
                                                                       Subtrend:  1.2 Road maintenance
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                       References
               Extenslveness         Maintenance will  continue on all
                                     permanent access  roads where
                                     harvest and silviculture treat-
                                     ments occur.
                                          1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings--

                                             1976  2 ;  1985  3 ; 2010  4 ,

                                          2.  Guidelines have been established
                                             for minimizing environmental
                                             damages from maintenance.
                                          1. Development Planning and Research
                                             Associates, Inc.,  op.  cit.

                                          2. U.S. Environmental Protection
                                             Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
                                             tection of Hater Quality, Region
                                             XI, 312 pp., 1975.
               Resource Use
                                     No significant changes are
                                     anticipated.
               Productivity
Productivity is not directly
affected.
r-o
o
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media: Surface
               Water - Sediment
               Chemicals
Sediment loadings can be expected
to occur from maintenance (e.g.
road grading in wet weather), but
effects will be short lived.

A trend toward sealing and sur-
facing roads may result in some
chemicals being carried to
streamflow.
3. Logging roads in Region 6 are
   being surfaced for better erosion
   control, lower maintenance, and
   lower vehicle operating costs.
3. U.S. Forest Service Region VI
   Engineering Office.  Pers. Coram.
   October 1976.
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media: Soils
No changes are anticipated.
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media:  Air
Some dust will be generated at In-
tervals, but it will be far removed
from population centers.
               Other Environmental
               Effects: Wildlife
None beyond those Incurred by road
construction.
               Other Environmental
               Effects: Aesthetics
No changes are anticipated.
               Other Environmental
               Effects: Fisheries
No changes are anticipated if pre-
cautions are observed and guide-
lines followed.

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ro
o
c»
                                                    Exhibit  1.3.   Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural trends
                                                                    Trend:   1.  Access to Timber Resource
                                                                    Subtrend:   1.3 Project road construction
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
                Extenslveness          Project roads  can  be  expected  to  be
                                      built 1n harvest areas  throughout
                                      U.S.
                                                                1.  Evaluation Workshop  Ratings—

                                                                   1976  3 ;  1985  4  ;  2010   3  .

                                                                2.  In the East,  road  systems  are
                                                                   mostly established,  or  can be
                                                                   reopened with ease.
                                          1.  Development Planning and Research
                                             Associates, Inc.,  op_.  cit.

                                          2.  Ursic S.  J., "Harvesting Southern
                                             Forests:   a Threat to Hater Qual-
                                             ity?"  Nonpolnt Sources of Mater
                                             Pollution, 145-151, Proc. S. E.
                                             Regional  Conference, Blacklsburg,
                                             Va.,  1975.
Productivity          The expected trend 1s towards mini-
                      mizing project road distances to tap
                      given timber harvest areas.

                      In South and North, the construction
                      of project roads will be minima!.
   Tendency in past has been to over-
   build road distances where ground
   is easy, and to hold to low grades
   regardless of Implications of
   shortened distances.
3. U.S. Forest Service, "Region 6
   Timber and Road Construction
   AUDIT", U.S. Dept. Agr., 1973.
                Resource Use           Forest  land  will  be  taken  out  of  pro-
                                      duction temporarily,  but will  be
                                      allowed to revert.   Compaction can  be
                                      expected to  reduce growing area.
                Pollutant  Changes
                in  Media
                      Trend will  follow that of new road
                      construction (Subtrend 1.1).   As roads
                      become abandoned in the West, measures
                      can be expected to be taken to reduce
                      environmental damages.  No signif-
                      icant Impacts are anticipated.
4. In Pacific Northwest, methods of
   restoring road surfaces to original
   slope are being used.
   U.S. Environmental Protection
   Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
   tection of Water Quality, Region
   X. 312 pp. 1975.

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                                                    Exhibit 1.4.   Environmental  assessment of selected silvlcultural  trends
                                                                     Trend:   1.   Access to Timber Resource
                                                                      Subtrend:   1.4 Road Reconstruction
                  Environmental
                     Effects
             Conclusions
              Research
              Findings
             References
                Extensiveness         Road reconstruction will  parallel
                                      new (Subtrend 1.1) construction in
                                      order to open up regenerating
                                      areas and gain entry for
                                      cultural treatments.
ro
o
                                          I.  Evaluation  Workshop  Ratings—

                                             1976 _1_; 1985 _2_;  2010 _3_.

                                          2.  Reconstruction 1n  NFS  forests  1s
                                             expected to reach  almost 30,000
                                             miles  per year.
                                          1.  Development Planning and Research
                                             Associates, Inc.,  op_.  c1t.

                                          2.  U.S. Forest Service, RPA -  A
                                             Recommended Renewable Resource
                                             Program, U.S.  Dept.  Agr., 658
                                             pp and app., 1976.
                Productivity          Some productive forest land will
                                      go out of production, either tem-
                                      porarily or permanently depending
                                      on class of road.
                Pollutant Changes
                1n Media
Changes will  generally be less than
those associated with new road con-
struction.
3. Some road reconstruction 1n West
   requires more soil  disturbance
   than 1n original  construction.
3. U.S. Environmental Protection
   Agency, Logging Roads and Pro-
   tection of 'Water
                                                                                                                             Region X,  312 pp,  1975.

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                                                    Exhibit 2.1.  Environmental assessment of selected  s1lv1cultural  trends
                                                                         Trend:  2.  Site Preparation
                                                                         Subtrend:  2.1 Log Extraction
                  Environmental
                     Effects
                                                   Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                       References
ro
o
                Extenslveness         Site preparation overall Is an Im-
                                      portant trend since certain methods
                                      are extremely damaging to soil pro-
                                      file.  Log extraction is one of the
                                      less damaging methods.  Since this
                                      Is a method for preparing sites after
                                      harvesting old growth in the West, 1t
                                      will decrease in importance as old
                                      growth is removed.
                                                                1.  Evaluation  Workshop Ratings

                                                                   1976   3  ; 1985   2  ; 2010   2
                                          1. Development Planning and Research
                                            Associates, Inc., op_. cit.
                Productivity          Prompt regeneration can result 1n
                                      significant Increase in productivity
                                      1n the period between first and
                                      second harvest.  Trend 1s toward
                                      Immediate site preparation following
                                      harvest, and restocking within the
                                      year following.
                                                                   If  planting can  be done  Im-
                                                                   mediately  after  harvesting 1n
                                                                   southern pines,  yield can be
                                                                   Increased.  Thus, site preparation
                                                                   is  an  important  step.
                                             Committee  on  Renewable  Resources
                                             for Industrial Materials  (CORRIM),
                                             Renewable  Resources  for Indus-
                                             trial  Materials.  National  Academy
                                             of  Sciences,  265  pp,  Washington
                                             D.C.,  1976.
Resource Use          Land 1s being used more efficiently
                      by being returned to production more
                      rapidly; logging methods themselves
                      help prepare site.
3. Logging methods can be used to
   prepare sites, including sup-
   plemental  attachments to yarding
   systems and skidding along contour.
3. Ward, F. R. and J. W. Russell
   "High Lead Scarification: An
   Alternative for Site Preparation
   and Fire Hazard Reduction", Fire
   Management, Fall 3-4, 9, 1975"!
                Pollutant Changes
                1n Media: Surface
                Water - Sediments
                Water  Yield
                Water  Flow
                      No adverse impacts are anticipated
                      unless log movement is parallel  to
                      slope, In which case water detach-
                      ment and transport of soil will
                      occur.
                      No change anticipated.

                      No change anticipated unless up or
                      downslope log extraction occurs.
4. Twenty percent of soil sediment
  .discharge is expected to result
   from harvesting activities.
4. Anderson, H.W., "Relative Con-
   tributions of Sediment from
   Source Areas and Transport Pro-
   cesses," Proc. Symposium, "Forest
   Land Uses and Stream Environment*.
   pp 55-63, O.S.U. Corvallls,
   Oregon, 1971.

   Reference f 4.
Chemicals
Nutrients
Pollutant Changes
in Media: Soil -
Mass Wasting
None Involved.
No change anticipated.
None anticipated as any result of site Reference * 4.
preparation by this method, unless
excessive up or downslope extraction
occurs.
                 Erosion
                      Some erosion may occur, but H 1s not
                      expected to be extensive.
                 Pollutant  Changes
                 1n  Media:   A1r  -
                 Dust
                      Some dust may be generated, but 1t 1s
                      not expected to be of significant
                      consequence.

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                                                   Exhibit 2.2.  Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
                                                                       Trend:  2.  Site Preparation
                                                                   Subtrend:  2.2 Mechanical Preparation
                 Environmental
                    Effects
            Conclusions
              Research
              Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
               Extenslveness          Varies  greatly  by  region  of  the
                                     country,  with greatest  utilization
                                     in the  South and the  Pacific Coast.
                                     The trend is expected to  be  away
                                     from mechanical means because of
                                     impact  on soils and water.   On the
                                     Pacific Coast,  normal logging
                                     operations will provide much of
                                     the site preparation  required.
ro
                                         1. Evaluation Workshop Rating —

                                            1976  3 ; 1985  4 ; 2010  3 .

                                         2. In the South, some 29.6 million
                                            acres are considered to need con-
                                            version to pine type, Involving
                                            site preparation of some kind.

                                         3. Between 1967 and 1977, forest
                                            industry was expected to drain
                                            2 million acres and prepare
                                            another 3.7 million acres for
                                            planting.

                                         4. Intensive mechanical site
                                            preparation 1s the most serious
                                            erosion problem In the Southern
                                            hill country.

                                         5. In the Pacific Coast, 3 million
                                            acres of alder are convertible
                                            to conifer species.

                                         6. In the West, specialized modifica-
                                            tions of standards cable yarding
                                            systems are being developed to
                                            scarify logged sites.
                                          1.  Development  Planning and  Research
                                             Associates,  Inc., op. cit.

                                          2.  Guttenberg,  S.,  "Forestry Goals
                                             and  Practices on Large Ownerships
                                             in the  South,' J. Forestry. 67(7):
                                             456-461,  1969.

                                          4.  Ursic,  S. J., "Pine Management
                                             Influences the Southern Center
                                             Resource", Proc.  Symposium of
                                             Young Pines, 1974.

                                          5.  Committee on Renewable Resources
                                             for  Industrial Materials  (CORRIM),
                                             Renewable Resources for Indus-
                                             trial Materials,  National Academy
                                             of Sciences, 265 pp, Washington
                                             O.C., 1976.

                                          6.  Ward, f.  R. and  J. U. Russell,
                                             "High Lead Scarification: An
                                             Alternative  for  Site Preparation
                                             and  Fire  Hazard  Reduction," Fire
                                             Management, Fall  3-4, 9,  197FT
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media:  Surface
               Water
Serious problems will  continue  if
recommended precautions  are Ignored.
7. Loss of forest floor,  soil  compac-
   tion and sealing macro channels
   change surface flow.
7. Beasley, R.  S., "Potential  Effects
   of Forest Management on Stormflow
   Survey and Water Quality,"  Proc.
   Hiss. Water Resources Conference,

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                                                   Exhibit 2.3,   Environmental assessment of selected sIlvlcuKural trends
                                                                        Trend:   2.  Site Preparation
                                                                    Subtrend:  2.3  Burning Prescription
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
               Extenslveness         F1re probably will  be used  increas-
                                     ingly as a partial  substitute for
                                     mechanical site preparation as well
                                     as other uses (e.g.  timber, stand
                                     improvement,  fuel reduction).
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                                                                1.  Evaluation Workshop Ratings—

                                                                   1976   3  ; 1985  3  ; 2010  3  .

                                                                2.  Annual needs for prescribed  burn-
                                                                   ing amounts to about 12 million
                                                                   acres  per year, 95% in South.
                                                                   How much is used in site prepara-
                                                                   tion is  not known.

                                                                3.  Substituting burning 1n place of
                                                                   mechanical site preparation  will
                                                                   conserve energy and do far less
                                                                   damage.  There 1s  no need to pre-
                                                                   pare as  thoroughly as 1s done
                                                                   with mechanical preparation.
                                          1.  Development  Planning and  Research
                                             Associates,  Inc.,  op.  cit.

                                          2.  HcNamara,  E.  F., "F1re Management
                                             on  State and  Forest Lands,"  Proc.
                                             1974  National Convention, Soc.
                                             Am. Foresters,  New York,  1975.

                                          3.  Smith,  D.  M., ""Modern Timber
                                             Management with Petroleum,"
                                             Proc.  1976 National Convention
                                             Society of American ForestersT
                                             1976.
Productivity          Productivity can be improved
                      temporarily by fire used in site
                      preparation as result of nutrients
                      being released.
4. The use of prescribed burning may
   be decreasing In the South as re-
   sult of air quality standards
   being tightened.

5. F1re is least energy - demanding
   method of site preparation.
4. Zobell, B., "Significance of
   Forest Renewable and Tree Im-
   provement to Forest Fanners,"
   Forest Fanner. Vol. 35. No. 6,
   p 44, 1976.

5. Reference i 3.
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media: Surface
               Water
                      Short term water yield  and  flow in-
                      creases can be expected until  new
                      vegetative cover establishes;
                      otherwise no significant effects
                      can be expected.
               Other Environ-        Wildlife and  vegetation undergo
               mental  Effects:        complete changes,  with  new eco-
               Wildlife              systems  being created.
               Other Environ-
               mental  Effects:
               Aesthetics
                      Short term adverse viewing exper-
                      iences can be anticipated.

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CO
                                                   Exhibit 2.4.  Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
                                                                        Trend:  2.  Site Preparation
                                                                     Subtrend:  2.4. Chemical Treatment
                                                                                                                                                       Page 1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
               Extenslveness         Chemicals' Importance as a bene-
                                     ficial tool in site preparation 1s
                                     expected to increase.  Federal lands
                                     are expected to receive extensive
                                     chemical treatment.  A restraint
                                     to widespread use 1s cost.
                                                               1. Workshop Panel Ratings--

                                                                  1976  1 ; 1985 _2; 2010  2  .

                                                               2. In the South where the most in-
                                                                  tensive forestry is practiced,
                                                                  less than 1 per cent of commer-
                                                                  cial forest had pesticide applica-
                                                                  tions.  On the Pacific Coast, State
                                                                  of Washington, 0.8 per cent had
                                                                  pesticides applied.

                                                               3. Chemicals are included 1n Forest
                                                                  Service Best Management Guide-
                                                                  lines for site preparation.
                                          1.  Development Planning  and  Research
                                             Associates, Inc.,  0£.  c i t.

                                          2.  Johnson,  N. E.,  "Pesticide  Usage
                                             1n Forestry," J.  Forestry,  5:546-
                                             548,  1972.

                                          3.  Oregon State University,  S1lv1-
                                             cultural  Chemicals and Protection
                                             of Water  Quality,  (draft),  Cor-
                                             vail is, Oregon,  1976.
Productivity          Productivity  of  wood  fibre will  be
                      Increased  by  shortening  the  period
                      for establishing a  new stand of  tim-
                      ber.   But  applications of chemicals
                      alone cannot  accomplish  this.
                      Subsequent follow up  is  required.
                Resource Use          Total  area  receiving  chemical  treat-
                                      ment 1s  extremely  small when com-
                                      pared  to the  total  area forested.
                                                                                                            Reference I 2.
                Pollutant Changes
                in Media: Surface
                Water
                      Effects of chemical  treatment
                      on surface water are not expected
                      to be significant.
4. Guidelines establishing pro-
   tection by buffer strips around
   water bodies will prevent any
   fallout of herbicides applied
   aerially.   Herbicides have least
   chance of damaging aquatic fauna.

5. In site preparation, application
   are generally made only once with
   maximum of twice In a rotation.

6. Tree Injected with arsenicals
   showed no Increase in stream
   water arsenic content.
4. Reference I 3.
                                                                                                                         5. Reference I Z.
                                                                                                                         6. Norrls, L. A. and D. C. Morre.
                                                                                                                            "Behavior and Impact of Organic
                                                                                                                            Arsenical Herbicides 1n the For-
                                                                                                                            est, U.S. Dept. Agr. for S«r PNW
                                                                                                                            Experiment Station. 1974.
                                                                                                                                        Continued

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                                                           Exhibit 2.4  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                      Page 2
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Pollutant Changes
1n Media: Soil
No significant effects are antic-
ipated.
7. Commonly used herbicides  break
   down organically.   Residues of
   2,4,5-T at concentrations of 11-
   12 ppm drop to 0.2-0.5 ppm within
   12 months.  They do not travel
   laterally.
7. Morris, L. A., "Behavior and Ira-
   pact of Some Herbicides 1n For-
   ests," John S. Wright Forestry
   Conference, Purdue U., West
   Lafayette, Ind., 1975.
Other Environ-
mental Effects:
Wildlife

Vegetation


Aquatic Habitat
Human Health
Disruptions will continue to occur
with abrupt changes in vegetation.

Broad leafed vegetation 1s elim-
inated under chemical  treatment.

The aquatic habitat may be adversely
affected 1f chemicals  are applied
directly to surface water.  However,
guidelines have been established which
are expected to minimize the chances
of this direct contamination.

The total  use of herbicides In
site preparation nationwide Is
expected to be so low that human
health should not be significantly
affected.
8. Guidelines established for min-
   imizing drift of aerially
   applied chemicals.
8. Grathowskl, H., "S1lv1cultural
   Use of Herbicides In Northwest
   Forests, U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest
   Service. Tech. Rep. PNW 37, 44 pp,
   1975.

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en
                                                  Exhibit 2.5.  Environmental  assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
                                                                        Trend:  2.   Site Preparation
                                                                   Subtrend:  2.5.  Fertilizer Treatment
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
              Extenslveness         Fertilizer treatment 1s used pri-
                                    marily 1n the South, where moist,
                                    phosphate deficient soils need
                                    nutrient supplement for the growth
                                    of loblolly pine.
                                         1. Workshop Panel Ratings--

                                            1976  1 ; 1985  2  ; 2010  2  .

                                         2. Used only to add phosphorus  to
                                            swampy areas drained for loblolly
                                            pine establishment In the South.
                                            Phosphorus applications have not
                                            affected water quality to any
                                            measurable degree.
                                          1.  Development  Planning  and  Research
                                             Associates,  Inc., op. c1t.

                                          2.  Personal  communication with  George
                                             Dlssmeyer, U.S.  Forest Service,
                                             Atlanta,  Georgia, 1977.
              Productivity          The creation of new pine forests
                                    will reflect an Increase In pro-
                                    ductivity.
                                         3. About 2.0 million acres of swamp
                                            land 1n South are expected to be
                                            drained for pine production by
                                            1977.
                                          3.  McClurkin.  D.  C.  and  P.  D.  Duffy,
                                             "Evaluating  Impact  of Forest  Site
                                             Preparation  on Soil and  Water
                                             Quality  in  the United States,"
                                             Proc.  Fourth N. Am. Forest  Soils
                                             Conf., Quebec, Canada, 1973.
               Resource  Use           Fertilizer  requirements are ex-
                                     pected  to range from 5,000 to
                                     20,000  tons per year.  If swamp
                                     land is prepared at a steady rate,
                                     the South would need 4,500 to
                                     18,000  metric  tons per year.
                                     Amount  of swamp land remaining
                                     is  unknown.
                                         4.  Phosphates are expected to be
                                             applied at rates of 50 to 200
                                             Ibs/acre.
                                          4.  U.S.  Environmental  Protection
                                             Agency,  Logging  Roads  and  Pro-
                                             tection  of Water Quality,  Region
                                             X,  312 pp..  1975.
               Pollutant Changes:
               Water
Phosphate levels 1n surface water
are expected to Increase;  however,
the increase will  be relatively
minor.
5.  Little 1s  known about  water
   quality changes as  result  of
   phosphate  fertilizing, but
   slight losses  from  fertilized
   sites Indicate movement Into
   water.
5. Sanderford, S.G., "Forest Fer-
   tilization and Water Quality In
   the North Carolina Piedmont,"
   Tech.  Report 53, North Carolina
   State Fertilizer Coop,, 42 pp.,
   1976,

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                                                   Exhibit 2.6.  Environmental assessment of selected s11v1cultur«l  trends
                                                                         Trend:  2.  Site Preparation
                                                                    Subtrend:  2.6. Soil  Moisture Control
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                                  Conclusions
                                                                              Research
                                                                              Findings
                                                                                                                                      References
               Extenslveness         About 2.0 million acres of wetland
                                     are expected to be drained In the
                                     South by 1977.  (Reference 2)
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                                                                1.  Evaluation Workshop  Ratlngs-

                                                                   1976  2 ;  1985   2  ;  2010   1
1. Development Planning and Research
   Associates, Inc., op. c1t.

2. McClurkln, D. C. and P. D. Duffy.
   "Evaluation Impact of Forest Site
   Preparation on Soil and Water
   Quality 1n the United States."
   Proc. Fourth N. Am. Forest Soils
   Conf., Quebec, Canada, 1973.
Productivity          Swamp lands with zero productivity
                      are being converted to pine produc-
                      ing sites.
               Resource Use          Drainage of swamp lands represents
                                     conversion to productive land use
                                     from non-productive use.
               Pollutant Changes—
               Media: Surface Water
               Wildlife and
               Vegetation
                      Slight Increases 1n stream flow 1n
                      watersheds draining swampy areas
                      can be expected.

                      Plant species and wildlife existing
                      1n the wetlands will  be replaced with
                      the limited diversity of pine forests.

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                                    Exhibit  3.1.   Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
                                                          Trend:   3.  Log Extractions
                                          Subtrend:   3.1.  Harvest  Unit  Layout -  Intensity of Effort
                                                                                                                                       Page 1
  Environmental
     Effects
                                   Conclusions
                                                       Research
                                                       Findings
                                                                                                                      References
Extenslveness         Planning will  play an Increasingly
                      important role in Western old  growth
                      timber stands  1n determining locations,
                      size of harvest units, design  or shape
                      of cutting areas, considerations to
                      visibility, road access,  and other
                      aspects of multiple use.
                                         1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings--
                                            1976  3 ; 1985  4 ; 2010  4 .

                                         2. Techniques are being developed
                                            for gauging aesthetic Impacts of
                                            logging on roadside viewing.

                                         3. The development of computer pro-
                                            grams for designing harvest
                                            operations and determining road
                                            locations facilitate the study
                                            of many alternatives.
                                       1.  Development  Planning and Research
                                          Associates,  Inc., op. c1t.

                                       2.  Polter,  D. R.  and J. A. Wagar,
                                          "Techniques  for  Inventorying Man
                                          Hade  Impacts on  Roadway Environ-
                                          ments,"  U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest
                                          Services, Research Paper, PNW
                                          121,  1971.

                                       3.  Burke, "Doyle, Running Skylines
                                          Reduce Access  Road Needs Mini-
                                          mize  Harvest Impact," Forest In-
                                          dustries, Vol. 102:(7), p. 46,
                                          1975.

                                      3a.  "Topometrics,  A  System for Evalu-
                                          ating Route Alternatives," Nat,
                                          Agr.  Sciences  Trans. Res. Bd. Sp.
                                          Reproduction 160, pp. 141-145,
                                          1975.
 Productivity           In terms of roundwood production,
                       productivity 1s not expected to in-
                       crease, except to the extent that
                       planning may aid in increasing
                       utilization.
 Resource  Use          The only increase in resource use
                      expected is in the field of utiliza-
                      tion, especially in residues of old.
                      growth logging, and whale tree
                      utilization in the South (see
                      Trend 4, Utilization):
 pollutant  Changes;
 Surface  Water  -
 Sediment
Increasing control  pver movement  pf
water and transport of sediment?  will
b§ gained but problems, wm  continue
to persist especially in the sheep
       of the westt
Continuing research and  development
of programs for more effective man-
agement are being formulated-
U.S. Forest Service, A National
Program for Researc
and
men
     pn Ngn-Point Source
                                                                                                                ution on Forest
    dater'
                                         •flnd, Hash, p. C..  (Review Draft),
                                         Washington, P-fil,
                                                                                                                              197§,
                                                                                                                       Continued

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                                                                          Exhibit 3.1  (Continued)                                                      p  fi  2
                 Environmental                                                               Research
                    Fffects                       Conclusions                                Findings                                 References


               Wildlife              No substantial changes from usual
                                     harvesting planning are expected
                                     unless planning 1s directed specif-
                                     ically at habitat modification as
                                     result of harvest plans.
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•—'             Fisheries             Increasing protection of existing
                                     temperatures and streambed structure
                                     is expected.

               Aesthetics            Continuing development of harvesting      5. Plans in Pacific Coast include         5.  Bureau  of Land  Management,  Timber
               and Viewing           plans to reduce or minimize effect           road screening, distant view              Management Plan,  Final  Environ-
                                     on viewer of harvested lands can             considerations, and successive            mental  Impact Statement,  584 pp.
                                     be expected.                                 harvests hidden by uncut bands            Washington D.C.,  1976.
                                                                                  of timber.

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                                                   Exhibit 3.2.   Environmental assessment of selected sllvicultural trends
                                                                        Trend:  3.  Log Extraction
                                                                Subtrend:  3.2.  Equipment Use and Development
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
               Extensiveness          On  the  Pacific  Coast,  a  continuing
                                     need  will  exist for  large  equipment
                                     modified to  reduce environmental
                                     damages.  This  will  probably  involve
                                     the development of lighter more
                                     mobile  yarding  equipment for  entry
                                     into younger stands  for  thinning.

                                     In the  South, a trend  1s developing
                                     for equipment designed for whole
                                     tree handling of timber  of uniform
                                     size.
                                                               1. Workshop Panel Ratings--

                                                                  1976  3 ; 1985  4 ; 2010  5 .

                                                               2. Increasing use of modified
                                                                  cable systems 1s reducing road
                                                                  needs.

                                                               3. Light yarding equipment coming
                                                                  into use in Pacific Coast 1s more
                                                                  efficient and less damaging 1n
                                                                  thinning operations.
                                          1.  Development  Planning and Research
                                             Associates,  Inc., op. cit.

                                          2.  Burke,  Doyle,  "Running  Skylines
                                             Reduce  Access  Road  Needs Minimize
                                             Harvest Site Impact," Forest  In-
                                             dustries,  Vol.  102:{7), p. 46,
                                             Kellogg,  L.  and  E.  Aurlich,  "Pre-
                                             bunch and Swing  Technique May
                                             Reduce Thinning  Costs,"  Forest
                                             Industries,  Vol.  104(2), p.  30,
                                             1977.
Productivity          Environmental  constraints can be ex-
                      pected  to  limit  productivity 1n a
                      number  of  situations,  but the overall
                      trend is  toward  increasing  productiv-
                      ity,  especially  in  regenerating stands
                      where thinning takes place.
               Resource Use          The requirement for resources used In
                                     developing and supplying equipment
                                     will increase significantly, especially
                                     with the demands in the North and
                                     South.
                                                               4. Timber production will increase
                                                                  markedly in the North and South:
                                                                  North—from 47 million m3 to 94
                                                                  million m3; South from 159 mm tir to
                                                                  329 mm m3; and West—from 165 mm m3
                                                                  to 270 ran m3.  A doubling of pro-
                                                                  duction Implies a corresponding In-
                                                                  crease In equipment needs.
                                             "Outlook for Timber 1n the United
                                             States," For. Serv. Rept. 20,
                                             367  pp., 1973, USDA Forest Ser-
                                             vice, RPA, A Recommended Renew-
                                             able Resource Program, 658 pp,
                                             and  App., 1976.
               Pollutant Changes
               in Media; Surface
               Water
               A1r
               Soil
                      Equipment changes  are  expected  to
                      reduce surface water pollution.

                      Exhaust emissions  and  dust  are  ex-
                      pected to increase with the Increase
                      in woods activity.
                      A trend toward the use of high  flota-
                      tion tires In skidders can  be expected.
5. Skidder wheel  tracks  need  12 years
   to recover from compaction, while
   the skid marks of logs  require  8
   years.
5. Dickerson,  B.P., "Soil  Compaction
   After Tree  Length Skidding In
   Northern Mississippi,"  Soil  Scl.
   Am. J.. 40(6):96, 1969.

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                                                    Exhibit 4.1.  Environmental assessment of selected sllvicultural  trends
                                                                            Trend 4:  4.  Utilization
                                                                  Subtrend:  4.1. Extraction Residue Recovery
                                                                                                                                                        Page  1
Environmental
Effects
Conclusions
Research
Findings
References
                 Extenslveness         Significant increases are expected to
                                      occur  in recovery of extraction res-
                                      idues.  Currently, almost a half of
                                      the  total unused residues are being
                                      generated 1n the Pacific Coast forests.
                                      Uhole  tree utilization is expected to
                                      double in the South.  Complete tree
                                      removal has the potential of increasing.
                                      utilization by about 25 percent.  The
                                      expected increase 1n extraction res-
                                      idue recovery can be attributed both
                                      to economic and social factors as well
                                      as technological developments.
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1. Evaluation Workshop Ratings—

   1976  3 ;  1985  3 ; 2010  1 .

2. Almost one half the total  unused
   woods residues 1n the nation are
   generated  in Pacific Coast forests.

3. Bark 1s developing as a new energy
   source, via conversion to  gas or
   liquid fuel.

4. Costs of bringing in woods residue
   vary from  $34 to $43 per ton for
   chips and  $31 to $40 for hogged
   fuel.

5. Potential  for increasing utiliza-
   tion through complete tree removal
   Is estimated at an additional 25
   percent.  Current utilization of
   30 cm stump height and 10  cm
   utilizable top diameter leaves
   half of the biomass of a tree In
   the woods.

6.'In the South, whole tree utiliza-
   tion in hardwoods is expected to
   increase biomass utilization from
   30 percent to 67 percent.

7. More complete utilization  will:
   -Add over  ^ million tons of utH1z-
    able raw  material annually
   -Protect soils
   -Decrease  air pollution
   -Reduce debris In streams
   -Improve scenic values
   -Improve recreational opportun-
    ities
   -Reduce public criticism.

8. Logging residues cost $30 per dry
   ton delivered, as opposed  to $2.50
   for hogged mill wastes $10 for
   planer shavings, and $20 for chips.

9. Advances in materials handling such
   as grapple yarder Is helping to re-
   cover more residues from logging
   operation.
1. Development Planning and Research
   Associates, Inc.,  op.  cit.

2. Corder, S. E., "Wood and Bark
   Residues for Energy," P. 7, Proc.
   Conference, O.S.U., CorvalUs,
   1974.

3. U.S. Forest Service, "Properties
   and Uses of Bark as an Energy
   Source," Dept. Agr. USFS Res.
   Paper PNW 31, Forest Research Lab
   O.S.U., CorvalUs, Oregon,  1976.

4. Grantham, J. B., E. M. Estap, H.
   Tarkow and T. C. Adams, "Energy
   and Raw Material Potential  of
   Wood Residue In Pacific Coast
   States," 1974.

5. Committee on Renewable Resources
   for Industrial Materials (CORRIM).
   Renewable Resources for Indus-
   trial  Materials, National Academy
   of Sciences, 265 pp., Washington,
   D. C., 1976.

6. Koch, P., "Key to Utilization of
   Hardwoods: The Shaping Lathe
   Headrlg," Forest Industries, 103
   (11):48-51. 1976.

7. Grantham, J. B., "Status of Tim-
   ber Utilization on Pacific Coast,"
   Dept.  Agr., Forest Service, Gen.
   Tech. Rep. PNW 29, 1976.
                                                                                                                          8. Reference 7.
                                                                                                                          9. Reference 3.
                                                                                                                                                Continued

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                                                                          Exhibit 4.1  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                       Page 2
                 Environmental
                    Effects
                                  Conclusions
                                                       Research
                                                       Findings
                                                                                                                                      References
                                                                               10. Utilization of tree stem 1s In-
                                                                                   creasing.  Younger stands provide
                                                                                   less unmerchantable or cull vol-
                                                                                   umes.  Thinnings are taking most
                                                                                   defective material.
                                                                                                         10. Ruth, R. H. and A. S. Harris,
                                                                                                             "Forest Residues 1n Hemlock
                                                                                                             Spruce Forests of Pacific
                                                                                                             Northwest and Alaska," U.S.
                                                                                                             Dept. Agr. Forest Ser., Gen.
                                                                                                             Tech. Rep. 39, 1975.
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               Productivity          Increasing recovery of material
                                     now left In woods will add sub-
                                     stantially to annual supply of
                                     pulpable fibre and combustible
                                     fuel.
                                                               11. One cubic meter of hogged bark
                                                                   has thermal content of .09 cubic
                                                                   meters of Number 4 oil.

                                                               12. NFS lands have 3 times as much
                                                                   residue left as private Industry
                                                                   lands 1n Pacific Northwest.  Old
                                                                   growth will be largely liquidated
                                                                   In the West between 2020 and 2040.
                                                                                    11. Reference  3.
                                                                                    12. U.S.  Forest  Service,  "Douglas
                                                                                       Fir Supply Study,"  Regions  5
                                                                                       and 6 PMW, Forest and Range
                                                                                       Exp.  Station,  Portland,  Oregon,
                                                                                       51 pp.,  1969.
                Resource  Use
                                      Resource use will Intensify In
                                      terms of extraction activity per
                                      acre.
Pollutant Changes
1n Media:
                Surface Water

                Soils




                Air


                Other  Environmen-
                tal Effects-
                Aesthetics


                Other  Uses


                Wildlife
In general, pollutant changes 1n
media will  reflect an Improvement.
However, possibilities will exist
for increased soil disturbance and
road use.
Debris content of streams will be
reduced.

Protection of soil structure by mini-
mizing burning of slash will be offset
to some extent by increased soil dis-
turbance in yarding Increased volumes
of material per unit area.
Air pollution from slash burning will
decrease.
                      Adverse scenic Impacts  will  be  re-
                      duced.

                      Recreation value of logged areas  will
                      Increase during regeneration period.

                      Access  and movement will  ba  easier
                      for big game.
                                          13.  Tendency should  be  toward  les-
                                              sened public  criticism.

                                          14.  Opportunities will  exist for
                                              easier access, berry  picking,
                                              wildlife viewing.
13.  Reference 3.

14.  Reference 3.

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                                                    Exhibit 4.2.  Environmental assessment of selected s1lv1cultural  trends
                                                                            Trend:  4.  Utilization
                                                              Subtrend:  4.2. Minimum Size and Quality Extension
                  Environmental
                      Effects
                                                   Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                       References
                Extensiveness         Significant Increases are expected
                                      1n the  practice of minimum size and
                                      quality extension.  This trend 1s
                                      particularly apparent in the South.
no
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                                          1.  Evaluation Workshop  Ratings--

                                             1976  3 ;  1985   3  ;  2010   1  .

                                          2.  In the South extracting the  whole
                                             tree Including  roots facilitates
                                             a 20 percent increase in  utlllz-
                                             able fibre.

                                          3.  In eastern hardwoods, tops of
                                             harvested  trees yielded 7 cubic
                                             meters/acre of  sawn  products and
                                             23 tons of chippable wood.
 1.  Development Planning and  Research
    Associates, Inc.,  op. cjt.

 2.  Koch, P.,  "Key to  Utilization of
    Hardwoods:  The Sahplng Lathe
    Headrlg,"  Forest Industries, 103
    (11):48-51, 1976.

 3.  Craft, E.  P.,  "Utilizing  Hard-
    wood Residues, A Case Study in
    the Appalachians," U.S. Dept.
    Agr., For.  Serv. Res., Note NE 22.
                Productivity          The potential for taking advantage
                                      of unused tops and species will de-
                                      pend on status of Industry, region-
                                      ally and subreglonally.
                                          4.  Pacific Coast pulping  raw material
                                             1s derived  85 percent  from res-
                                             idues  of sawmills  and  plywood
                                             plants.

                                          5.  In South material  is derived 72.5
                                             percent from roundwood material
                                             27.5 percent from  chips  (some  of
                                             which  produced from roundwood.) In
                                             South  45 m3/ha of  chippable wood
                                             left after  clearcut.
 4.  Grantham, V.  B.,  "Status of Tim-
    ber Utilization on the Pacific
    Coast," U.S.  Dept. Agr., Forest
    Serv., Gen. Tech.  Rep. PNW 29,
    1976.

 5.  "1976  Southern Pulpwood Produc-
    tion Sets Another  Record; up 4
    percent," Forest  Industries, Vol.
    103 (6), June 19,  1976.

5a.  Chappell, T.  W. and R. C. Beetz,
    "Southern Logging  Residues;
    Opportunity," 0 Forestry 71:11,
    p. 688, 1973.
                Resource Use          Increased utilization through min-
                                      imum size and quality extension will
                                      increase activity per unit area
                                      harvested.
                Pollutant Changes
                1n Media: Surface
                Water
                Soils
If tree pulling and whole tree util-
ization becomes a common practice In
the South, nutrient deficiencies will
occur.

An Increase 1n soil disturbance and
compaction can be expected.

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                                                   Exhibit 4.3.  Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
                                                                           Trend:  4.  Utilization
                                                                   Subtrend:  4.3. Species Use Enlargement
                 Environmental
                    Effects
            Conclusions
Research
Findings
                                                                                                                                      Reference
ro
CO
                Extenslveness          Species  use  enlargement  1s expected
                                      to  Involve the  utilization of more
                                      hardwood species  of  North and South,
                                      and alder and aspen  In West.
                                         1. Evaluation Workshop Ratlngs-

                                            1976  2  ; 1985  3  ; 2010  4
                            1. Development Planning and Research
                               Associates, Inc., op.  cit.
                Productivity          Productivity  of  some  areas  of country
                                      will  Increase as more species become
                                      available  but conversion  to pure
                                      stands in  many instances  will prob-
                                      ably  tend  to  decrease future utiliza-
                                      tion  in terms of volume.
                                         2. The utilization of hardwood 1n the
                                            South rose from 12.7 million cubic
                                            meters 1n 1964 to 21.4 million In
                                            1974.
                            2. "Pulpwood Statistics." Forest
                               Industry, Vol. 103(6), p. 6,
                               June 1976.
                Resource Use          Resource use 1s expected  to  Increase
                                      with the removal  of a  greater  volume
                                      per unit area.
                                            Hardwoods 1n pulp expected to In-
                                            crease from 23 percent of all pulp-
                                            wood production 1n 1970 to 35 percent
                                            by 2010.
                               "Outlook for Timber," Forest
                               Service Report 20, 367 pp.,
                               1973.  USDA Forest Service, RPA,
                               A Recommended Renewable Resource
                               Program, 658 pp. and App., 1976.
                Pollution Changes
                1n Media: Surface
                Water - Sediments
Soil  disturbance should  be  decreased
especially in the South, where  In-
creasing species removal will result
1n less need for heavy equipment 1n
site preparation.
                Other Environ-
                mental Eff»cts:
                Wildlife
Changes will occur with conversion
to monoculture.

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                                                    Exhibit 5.1.   Environmental assessment of selected sllvlcultural trends
                                                                          Trend:   5.  Cutting Systems
                                                                         Subtrend:  5.1.  Clearcuttlng
                                                                                                                                                       Page 1
                  Environmental
                     Effects
                                   Conclusions
              Research
              Findings
                                                                                                                      References
rsj
ro
Extenslveness         Clearcutting as  a  system 1s  Increas-
                      ing.   Evenaged management Is  demonstra-
                      ting  greatest potential  for maximizing
                      fibre yield in a number  of forest
                      types, and clearcuttlng  provides best
                      opportunity for  establishment of new
                      stands.

                      Clearcutting is  also target  of
                      criticism because  its use, especially
                      on old growth stands, causes  immediate
                      aesthetic degradation and can result
                      in damages to water and  soil.  It
                      effectively dedicates land to fibre
                      production to the  detriment  of other
                      uses.

                      Possibility exists for future limiting
                      of clearcuts on  federal  lands, result-
                      Ing from public  pressures.

                      Future trends 1n clearcuttlng will be
                      to limit visual  affront  and  other
                      damages by selection of  size, shape,
                      location, use of road screens and
                      stream buffers.
                                                                                1. Workshop Panel Ratings—

                                                                                  1976  4  ; 1985  3  ; 2010  S .
                                                                                2. Most damages associated with
                                                                                  Clearcutting are actually re-
                                                                                  sults of other activities—
                                                                                  railroad logging, road building,
                                                                                  repeated unchecked fares on log-
                                                                                  ging sites, and lack of residue
                                                                                  recovery.
3. A combination of shelpwood and
   clearcut in patches has been
   adopted as a policy by Bureau of
   Land Management 1n conducting
   timber sales.
                                          1.  Development  Planning  and  Research
                                             Associates,  Inc.,  Environmental
                                             Implications of  Trends  in
                                                                                                                            culture and Silviculture, Vol. I,
                                                                                                                            U.S. Environmental Protection
                                                                                                                            Agency, 200 pp, 1977.
                                          2.  Smith,  D.M.,  Modern  Timber  Man-
                                             agement Without  Petroleum,  Proc".,
                                             1976  National  Convention  Society
                                             of American  Foresters,  1976.
3. Bureau of Land Management, Timber
   Management, Final Environmental
   Impact Statement, 584 pp, Wash-
   ington, D.C., 1976.
                Productivity          Evenaged management favors  quick  re-
                                      establishment of regeneration,  which
                                      effectively shortens rotation.  Species
                                      responding  are generally  desirable  in
                                      market and  show strong  growth char-
                                      acteristics.   Consequently, produc-
                                      tivity will be higher where such  estab-
                                      lishment replaces unevenaged mixed
                                      stands.   Judicious use  of clearcut will
                                      Increase productivity of  fibre  but will
                                      inevitably  depreciate other values.
                                                               4. Areas opened up by clearcuttlng
                                                                  favor quick establishment of
                                                                  species.

                                                               5. Of 37 major forest types, clear-
                                                                  cutting us^ 1n at least 20 as
                                                                  a standard method.
                                          4.  U.S.  Forest Service,  SHvlcultural
                                             Systems  of the Major  Forest Types~
                                             of the United States, U.S.  Dept.
                                             of Agr., Handbook 445, 124  pp.

                                          5.  Reference 4.
                Resource Use
                      NO. changes  anticipated-
                pollutant Changes
                1n  Media.: Su.rfa.ce
                Hater -  Sediment?
                      cjearputs  pan and  df)  result  in  sed-
                      iments  and erps.inn but  pare  in  IQ-
                               '
                                    .
                      catifln,  si'?e  and  lagging  method  pan
                      minimize these.. nrflBi§m§!   Trend  In
                      future will be wward  §yeh praet1e.es..
§• Clearpntt1nq and harvesting
   disturbs mRre than 30 percent ef
   the pre-sflll serfage. are»:
g. Reasiey, R-s., "pptentlal Effects
   of F9rest Management 9n §t9rmfl9«
   Misc. Hater Bes.flnrees Eflnf-7 »?fi.
                                                                                                                                           Continued  •  ,  ,

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                                                                         Exhibit 5.1  (Continued)
                                                                                                                                                      Page 2
                  Environmental
                     Effects
             Conclusions
               Research
               Findings
                                                                                                References
                Water Yield
                and  Flow
                Water Quality
ro
ro
en
                Soils - Mass
                Wasting
                Other Environ-
                mental Effects:
                Aesthetics
Clearcuttlng should continue to be
a useful tool in increasing water
yield in Rockies through snow en-
trapment in openings created.

Clearcutting on Pacific Coast can re-
sult in short term increases that
drop as vegetation re-establishes.
In Rockies, timing of cut controls
flow and erosion potential.
 Exercised with care, clearcuttlng
 can be carried out without Impairing
 water quality.  Ongoing work to min-
 imize effects should result 1n more
 protection, but temperature and
 sediment loads can be affected.
 Without close knowledge and care 1n
 handling of slope under soil con-
 ditions, mass wasting can occur from
 large clear cuts, but this 1s more
 often the  result of roads than cut-
 ting, per  se.  Trend 1s toward
 smaller, sfiaped cuts.
 It  is  becoming  Increasingly possible
 and practical to handle clearcuts so
 as  to  minimize  adverse environmental
 Impacts,  including aesthetics.  A
 combination of  clear cuts and shelter,
 wood cuts will  most likely continue.
 However, with decreasing size of
 clearcut more roads are required,
 which  results in greater environmental
 problems  than clearcuttlng Itself.
 7.  Timber  clearcuttlng  techniques
    in  Rockies  has  proven  to  be  an
    effective means  of  increasing
    yield and flow  of water.

 8.  Individual  clearcuts of less than
    5 percent of  a  given watershed
    probably do not affect downstream
    flows.   The slight  effect would  be
    lost  by worse damage connected with
    roads,  plugged  drains, loose soil,
    etc.  Both  cut  and  uncut  areas re-
    spond about equally  to heavy storm
    conditions  in Rocky  Mountains.
    Timing  of cutting can  minimize or
    avoid channel erosion.

 9.  In  North, It  is  possible  to  harvest
    clearcut lands  at no significant
    damage  to water quality.
10.  Large clearcuts  have  resulted  In
    debris avalanches  accelerated  by
    expanses  of bare ground,  but har-
    vesting itself was responsible for
    ground baring.

11.  In a 6 year period, clearcut with-
    out roads had  2  percent of  land
    slide actj/ity of  clearcut  roads,
    but clearcutting can  stop nutrient
    uptake, reduce organic matter, and
    Increase  soil erosion potential.

12.  The use of computer technology
    with maps and data memory storage
    allows study of  map alternatives
    for arriving at  optimum harvest
    plan.
 7. Hover, M.D. "Vegetation Manage-
    ment for Water Yield," Symposium
    of Water Balance in North America.
    Proc. Ser. 7 pp 191-195, 1969.

 8. Harr, A.D., Forest Practices and
    Streamflow In Western Oregon,
    U.S. Dept. Agr., Forest Service,
    Tech. Rep. PNN 49, 1976.
 9. Aubertin, G.M. and J.H. PatHc,
    "Quality Water from Clearcut
    Land", Northern Logger, 20(8):
    14-15, T57E

9a. Hornbeck, J.W., "Protecting Water
    Quality During and After Clear-
    cutting," J.  Soil  and Water Con-
    servation. 23(1):19-20. 1568.

10. Bishop, D. and M.E. Stevens, Land-
    slidas on Logged Aneasin S.E.
    Alaska, U.S.  Dept. Agr., Forest
    Service, Res.  Paper NOR-1, 18 pp,
    1964.

11. FredeHckson,  R.L., "Impact of
    Forest Management on Stream Water
    Quality 1n Western Oregon," Proc.
    Symposium of  Water Pollution and
    Abatement, Forest Products Re-
    search Society, 1972.

12. Burke D., "New Tools Allow Exam-
    ination of Alternatives Speedily,"
    Forest Industries. Vol. 102:(7),
    pp 48-50, Vol. 102:(8). p. 44,
    June 197S.

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                                                                          Exhibit 5.1   (Continued)
                Environmental
                    Effects
              Wildlife
ro
              Aquatic Systems
                                                                                                                                                      Page 3
                                                  Conclusions
                                                        Research
                                                        Findings
                                                                                                                                     References
The wildlife make-up changes with
dear-cutting, from tree and forest
dwelling found to be more open
dwelling.  With the creation of new
edge between vegetation types, wild-
life should be more diverse, with
increased interim browse for un-
gulates, and more habitat for brush
dwelling species.

Aquatic systems will continue to
receive some adverse Impact, but
these will be limited wherever pre-
cautions are taken.
                                                                             13. Birdlife on clearcut changes sig-
                                                                                 nificantly.  Populations drop 1n
                                                                                 first few months, building up to
                                                                                 greater than pre-harvest by third
                                                                                 year for all brush and ground
                                                                                 dwellers.  By Year 12, tree
                                                                                 dwelling species appear again.
                                                                             14. Use of buffer strips will both
                                                                                 Impede surface runoff and main-
                                                                                 tain stable water temperatures,
                                                                                 helping to sustain heating
                                                                                 fisheries.
13. Conner, R.R. and C.S. Adkisson,
    "Effects of Clearcuttlng on
    Diversity of Breeding Birds,"
    J. Forestry. 73(12):781, 1975.
14. U.S. Forest Service, RPA- A
    Recommended Renewable Resource
    Program, U.S. Dept. Agr., 652 p.
    658 pp and App., 1976.

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                                   TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                            (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
 EPA-600/3-78-102
                                                            3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOr*NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Environmental Implications of Trends  in  Agriculture
Silviculture. Volume  II:   Environmental  Effects of
Trends
        and
            5. REPORT DATE
               December 1978
            6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Samuel  G.  Linger
                                                            8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Development Planning  and  Research Associates,  Inc.
200  Research Drive
Manhattan, Kan.  66502
            10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.

              1BB770
            11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.

              68-03-2451
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Environmental Research  Laboratory—Athens,  GA
Office of Research  and  Development
U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
Athens, Ga.  30605
            13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
              Final
            14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
              EPA/600/01
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Volume I:  Trend  Identification and Evaluation (EPA-600/3-77-121)
16. ABSTRACT
       This study assesses those trends  in  U.S.  agriculture and silviculture that will
have the most significant environmental  implications, either beneficial  or adverse, in
the short term  (1985)  and in the long term (2010).   Volume I identifies  trends in
irrigated and nonirrigated crop production,  feedlot production, range  and  pasture
management, and silviculture and harvest management.   Volume II identifies the major
ecological impacts  of  the major trends  on  aquatic life, terrestrial  life,  and human
health.   The second volume also contains an  assessment of continuing research needs
and prospective policy issues involving  environmental quality management.
17.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                               b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                            COSATI Field/Group
Agriculture
Silviculture
Environmental effects
Environmental quality
  management
  98C
  48D
  68D
  91A
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