DECISION
    MAKING
           THE
       CHESAPEAKE
           BAY
CHESAPEAKE BAY

    DATABANK
       Adapted with permission from
   The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Chesapeake Bay: Future Conditions Report

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                                                         903R7O117



            Chesapeake Bay Data  Bank

                    Table of Contents

Topic                                                              Page

Section I: The Chesapeake Bay Region

Environmental Setting
Geology	1
  Fall Line	1
  Rock Types	1
   sedimentary	1
   igneous	1
   metamorphic	1
  Soils	1
Climate and Hydrology	: 1
  Precipitation	1
  Evapotranspiration	1
  Surface Water Hydrology (runoff)	2
  Groundwater Resources (Aquifers)	2
Estuary	2
  Bay Formation	2
  Bay Size	2
  Bay Depth	2
  Tidal Currents	2
  Bay Map	3
  Salinity Currents	4
  Other Physical Factors
   Dissolved oxygen	4
   Temperature	4
   Light	4
  Isohaline Maps	5
   Nutrients	6
Biota	6
  Productivity	6
   Water movements	6
   Re-cycling nutrients	6
   Plant diversity	6
  Producers	6
   Aquatic plants	6
   Phytoplankton	6
   Macrophytes	7
  Consumers	'.	7
  Fish and wildlife	7
   Zooplankton	7
   Anadromous fish	7
   Finfish	7
   Shellfish	7
  Waterfowl	7
  Other birds	8
  Mammals	8
  Plant and animal organisms	9

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The People
Population Characteristics	8
Economic Sectors	10
  Family income distribution table	10
  Manufacturing	10
  Public Administration	'	11
  Agriculture	12
  Fisheries	12
  Armed Forces	12
  Construction	12
  Trade	12
  Transportation	12
  Finance	12
  Services	12
  Economic Projections	13
    OBERS Series C	:	13
    OBERS Series E	13
  Tables of population/economic projections	14
  Tables of Comparison of OBERS Series C and Series E	15
  Sensitivity Analysis (Evaluation)	14
Land Use^	15
  Existing land use	15
    Urban Land	15
    Agricultural Land	15
    Forest Lands	16
    Wetlands	16
    Natural areas  of significance	16
  Future land use	17
    Urban Land	17
    Agricultural Land	17
    Forest Lands	:	17
    Wetlands	17
  Problems and Conflicts	17
  Sensitivity Analysis (Evaluation)	18
  Satisfy Needs (Solve the Problem)	18
    Local land use controls	18
    State land use controls	18
    Federal land use controls	18

Water Resource Problems and Needs

Water Supply
Current Water Supply	19
  Municipal Water Supply	19
    Domestic	19
    Commercial	19
    Industrial	19
    Institutional	19
    Public	 19
  Industrial Water Supply	20
  Rural Domestic	20
  Livestock and Poultry	21
  Irrigation	22
  Existing Problems	22
  Existing water supply tables	21
Future Water Supply	23
  Municipal	23
  Industrial	23
    Technology	23

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   Rural  Domestic	 .24
   Livestock and Poultry	24
   Irrigation	24
   Projected water supply tables	 .25
   Supply Analysis	-i	25
     Groundwater	25
     Surface water	 •	25
     Impoundments	26
Tables of Projected Deficits.	26
   Analysis	26
   Means to satisfy the Needs (Solve the Problem)	27
     Natural stream flow	27
     Impoundments	27
     Groundwater	27
     Desalinization	27
     Institutional measures	27

Water Quality
Current Status 	27
   Introduction	27
   Potential Sources of Water Pollution (Graphic)  	28
   Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Area Map	29
   Water Quality Parameters 	30
     Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD)	30
     Bacteriological Indicators	30
     Suspended Solids	30
     Dissolved Solids	30
     Nutrients	30
     Heavy metals	 30
   Existing Water Quality Conditions	30
   Water Quality Problems Map	31

FUTURE WATER QUALITY NEEDS	31
   Industrial  Wastewater	33
   Other Point and Nonpoint Source Problem Areas	33
    Thermal Discharges	,33
    Chlorine	,	33
    Agricultural and Urban Runoff	33
    Oil and Marine Transportation	34
    Sedimentation	34
    Recreational and Commercial Boating Activities	34
    Septic Tank Failures	34
    Solid Waste Leachates	34
  Management	34
    Financial Capabilities	34
    Manpower	34
    Lack of Data Base	34

MEANS TO SATISFY THE NEEDS	34
   Physical Alternatives	35
    Improving Water Use Technology	35
    Increased Industrial Treatment and Recirculation	35
    Increased Municipal Treatment	35
    Cooling of Thermal Wastes	35
    Land Treatment of Wastewater	35
    Control of Non-Point Source Pollutants	,.	'.	35
    Other Physical Methods	£.	35
  Management and Legislative Actions	35
                                                                                              in

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OUTDOOR RECREATION
CURRENT STATUS	36
  Existing Supply and Demand	36
  Problems	36
  Boating Map	37
  Swimming Map	38
  Picnic Map	39
  Camping Map	40
FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY	 .41
  Means to Satisfy Needs	42

SECTION III: NAVIGATION, FLOOD CONTROL AND SHORELINE ERO-
SION

NAVIGATION

CURRENT STATUS	44
  Current Status	44
    Transportation	44
    Ports	44
    Size of Ships	44
    Navigation Projects	44
    Sedimentation	44
    Dredging	44
  Existing Problems and Conflicts	44
    Need for deeper channels	44
    Maintenance of existing channels	44
    Disposal of dredged materials	44
    Waste discharge from watercraft	 45
    Shoreline erosion caused from ship's wake	45
    Need for additional waterfront lands	45
PROJECTED DEMANDS	:	 .46
  Baltimore •• Harbor	46
  Hampton Roads	48
  Chesapeake and Delaware Canal	49
  James  River	49
  Potomac River	49
  York River	50
  Other Waterways	51
FUTURE SUPPLY	52
  Methodology	52
  Channel  Capacities	52
  Future Needs and Problems	52
    Ports	52
    Dredge disposal	52
    Deeper channels	52
    Maintenance	53
  Means to Satisfy Needs	53
    Accommodate larger vessels	53
    Economical and environmental acceptable dredge disposal	54
    Alleviate congestion in ports, channels, and anchorage areas	54
    Minimize conflicts between recreational and commercial vessels	54
    Minimize erosion damages	54
    Minimize accidental oil spills	54
    Expand ports	54

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Flood Control
Flooding: Current Status:	55
  Tidal Flooding.	55
  Flood  Problem Areas	 . 56
  Future Tidal Flood Problem Areas	57
  Means to Satisfy Needs
  Non-Structural Solutions	57
    Flood Insurance	57
    Flood Proofing	57
    Other Non-Structural Measures	58
  Structural Flooding Solutions	;	58
    Levees	58
    Breakwaters	58
    Bulkheads	58
    Revetments	58
    Groins	58
    Beach  nourishment	58

Shoreline Erosion
Shoreline Erosion Existing	58
  Shoreline Erosion Process	58
  Existing Problems and  Conflicts	59
Shoreline Erosion Future Problems	60
  Non-structural Solutions	61
    Marsh Creation	;	61
    Vegetative  Cover	61
    Regulatory Actions	62
  Structural Solutions	61
    Bulkheads	,62
    Revetments	62
    Groins	62
    Beach Nourishment	62

Section IV: Fish and  Wildlife, Electric Power, Noxious Weeds

Fish and Wildlife
Current	63
  Commercial Fisheries	63
    Finfish	•.	63
    Shellfish	63
    Harvesting	63
    Processing	63
  Commercial Furbearers	64
  Sportfishing and Hunting	64
  Non-consumptive Utilization of Resources	65
  Existing Conflicts and Problems	65
    Dredging	65
    Water  quality	65
    Management structure	65
    Federal regulations	65
    Fluctuations	65
Future Fish and Wildlife Needs	:	66
  Finfish and Shellfish	66
  Harvesting and Processing of fisheries industries	66
  Wildlife	67
    Conversion of farms  to urban land uses	67
    Reluctance of landowners to open lands to recreationists	67
    Single-purpose leasing for hunting	67
    Reduction of habitat	67
    Single species tree farming	67

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          Use of herbicides	67
        Non-consumptive wildlife	68
        Means to Satisfy the Needs	68
        Industrial Finfish	68
        Non-industrial Finfish	68
        Wildlife	69

      Electric Power

      Current Status Power	70
        Power Requirements and Generating Facilities	70
        Market  Sectors	70
          Chesapeake West	70
          Chesapeake  East	70
          Chesapeake South	70
        Existing Power Facilities	'.'. 71
        Chesapeake Bay Power Plant Location Map	73
        Cooling Water Requirements	72
        Existing Problems and Conflicts	74
          Steam generating plants	74
          Fossil  fuel plants	74
          Nuclear Power Plants	-. 74
          National energy	74
      Future Electric Power Needs	74
        Projected Demands	74
        Supply Methodology	75
        Projected Plant Location	75
        Cooling Water Consideration	76
        Table of Plant Locations	76
        Power Plant Location Map	77
        Land Use by Power Facilities	78
        Sensitivity Analysis (Evaluation)	78
        Means to Satisfy Electric Power Needs	,	.78
        Water Use	 .78
        Land Use	79
        Load Management	79

      Noxious Weeds:
      Current Status of Noxious Weeds	79
        Eurasian Watermilfoil	80
        Waterchestnut	80
        Sea  Lettuce	80
      Means to Satisfy Future Needs of Noxious Weeds	80
        General	 80
        Control Measures	81
          Chemical	:	81
          Mechanical	81
          Biological	81

      Epilogue	84

      Glossary	86
VI

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          SECTION I
                         The
     Chesapeake
        Bay Region
   ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING
   AND NATURAL RESOURCES

GEOLOGY

The Chesapeake Bay Region is divided
into   two. geologic   provinces-the
Coastal Plain and  the  Piedmont Pla-
teau.  These  provinces  run  roughly
parallel to the Atlantic Ocean in sim-
ilar fashion to the Bay itself and join
at the Fall Line (see  Figure 3). This
natural  division  generally  marks
both the limit of tide as well as the
head of navigation.

The  Coastal  Plain Province includes
the Eastern Shore of Maryland and
Virginia, most of Delaware, and a
portion of the Western Shore. On  the
Eastern Shore and in  portions of  the
Western Shore adjacent to the Bay,  the
Coastal Plain is largely low. featureless.
and  frequently marshy,  with  many
islands and shoals sometimes extend-
ing far offshore. The Province is a
gently rolling  upland  on  the  Western
Shore and in the northern portions of
the Eastern Shore. The Coastal  Plain
reaches its  highest elevation in  areas
along its western margin.
The  Coastal  Plain  runs  primarily
south-easterly-dipping,  sedimentary
layers  such  as   sand,  clay,  marl,
gravel,   and  diatomaceous   earth
resting on a base of hard crystalline
rock.   These  layers,  which  can  be
readily seen in areas where wells have
been  drilled,  increase in  thickness
towards the  Continental Shelf (see
Figure 4) In a few isolated areas and
in locations where water has cut a
deep channel, the basement rock is
exposed in ridges.
The Piedmont Plateau is  not, as  its
name  implies, a plateau. It is charac-
terized by low hills and ridges which
tend to rise above the general lay of
the land reaching a maximum height
near the Appalachian Province on the
west. Many of the stream valleys are
quite narrow and steep-sided, having
been  cut  into the  hard crystalline
rocks which are characteristic of the
Province.
The parent material of the Piedmont
Province is older than  that of the
Coastal  Plain.  The   structurally
complex crystalline rocks have been
severely  folded  and  subjected  to
great  heat  and  pressure thereby
creating metamorphic rocks.

SOILS

Soils consist of a thin layer of material
made from broken and  decomposed
rock with added products of decaying
organic  matter  called  humus. The
Study  Area contains soils produced
from the three major types of rock,
namely  igneous,  metamorphic, and
sedimentary. The first  two types are
found primarily in the Piedmont Prov-
ince,  whereas the  Coastal  Plain is
composed of sediments.

Climate appears to  have a definite
effect on soil development. Although
the Bay Area is generally characterized
by a humid climate, local variations in
temperature and rainfall produce some
differences  in  soil  type.  Soil charac- ;
teristics (texture, drainage, structure,
particle  size,  physical composition,
and degree of development) have had a
strong role  in  determining soil useful-
ness.  Richer,  well-drained soils are
more  productive in  terms of agricul-
ture.  Few  crops  can grow  on soils
which  are  poorly  drained or  which
lack plant  nutrients.  Soils  on  the
Coastal Plain are highly variable with
regard  to drainage characteristics and
most need  liming to neutralize  their
naturally acidic condition. Piedmont
soils are medium-grained,  easily tilled,
and of generally higher fertility than
those of the Coastal Plain.,A  few soils
are  impermeable when  wet, retarding
the movement of water  and causing
waterlogging.  As a result, strong sur-
face runoff causes  serious erosion  of
slopes.

CLIMATE

The  Chesapeake Bay Study Area is
characterized by a generally moderate
climate, due in  a  large  part to the
area's  nearness  to   the   Atlantic
Ocean.  Variations  occur,  however,
on a local short-term basis due to the
large geographical size of the Bay
Area.
Precipitation  within the  Bay Region
was studied at selected stations during
a 30-year sample record from 1931 to
1960. The average for the Study Area
was  44 inches  per year, with geo-
graphical variations from  about 40 to
46 inches per year. Snowfall, included
in the precipitation totals, averaged 13
inches per year and occurred generally
between November and March.
Three  types of  storm  activity bring
precipitation to the Region. The first
type consists of extratropical storms
or "lows" which originate to the west,
either in the Rocky Mountains, Pacific
Northwest, or the Gulf of Mexico. The
second is  tropical storm or hurricane
activity which originates in the Middle
Atlantic or the  Caribbean  Sea region.
The  third is  thunderstorm  activity
which is almost always on a local scale.
It is  this last activity   which  brings
about  the greatest amount  of local
variation in—precipitation in  the Bay
Area.

Evapotranspiratiqn,  which  includes
water losses due to evaporation from
land and water surfaces and transpira-
tion from plants, amounts to  approxi-
mately 60 percent  of the annual pre-
cipitation or about 26 inches per year.
Authorities estimate an  annual evapor-
ation of 36 to 40 inches from the Bay
itself.

The average temperature for the Study
Area  is approximately  57  degrees
Fahrenheit C*F). The Bay  is  oriented
in a north-south direction, however,
and  covers  a  wide  latitudinal area,
allowing wide  temperature variances.
As  a  result, the  temperature  at the
head  of the  Bay  averages less than
55°F, while at the mouth it averages
almost  60° F,

SURFACE WATER HYDROLOGY

The source of freshwater for the Bay is
runoff from a drainage  basin  covering
about 64,160 square miles. Approxi-
mately  88 percent  of  this  basin  is
drained by five major rivers, including.
the Susquehanna, Potomac, Rappahan-
nock, York, and lames.  These five
rivers average an inflow of 69,000
cubic feet per  second. These river
basins  are  subject   to   periodic
                                                                                                             1

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  Figure 4: Geologic Cross-Section of the Coastal Plain Province in Maryland

                                                             vOCEAN CITY
                                                        BERLIN  SEA
                                           jSAUSBURY            SVELp
seasonal  changes  in flow  due  to
droughts   and  floods.   Of these,
droughts      are      the     more
geographically widespread and long-
term in nature.

GROUNDWATER RESOURCES

Large reservoirs of high quality fresh-
water are  located in the  groundwater
aquifers   of  the   Chesapeake  Bay
Region. Aquifers are subsurface  sand
and  gravel-type materials  with  rela-
tively high  ability to conduet water.
Water  levels in the aquifers fluctuate
according to the balance  between pre-
cipitation and aquifer recharge, on the
one hand, and evapotranspiration, run-
off,  and  withdrawals on  the other
hand. In the Bay Area, of the average
precipitation of 44 inches per year, an
estimated  9  to  11  inches  actually
contributes to  the  recharge  of the
groundwater reservoirs.

Of the more productive aquifers in the
Chesapeake  Bay  Area,  the water-
bearing  formations  known  as  the
Columbia  Group  produce very high
yields.  Extensive areas on the Eastern
Shore  and  portions  of  Harford and
Baltimore Counties, Maryland, are the
principal  users. The Piney Point For-
mation is important in Southern Mary-
land, portions of  Maryland's Eastern
Shore and in areas near the Fall Line
in Virginia. Lastly, the Potomac Group
provides  water  to  Anne  Arundel,
Charles, and Prince Georges Counties,
Maryland and is the most important
source of groundwater  in  the Coastal
Plain of Virginia.
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY  ESTUARY
The Chesapeake Bay Estuary is a mere
youngster,  geologically speaking. It is
generally believed that the Bay was
formed about 10,000 years ago, at the
end of the  last Ice Age, when the great
glaciers melted and  poured uncount-
able billions  of gallons of water back
into the world's oceans. As a result of
this great influx of water, the  ocean
level  rose  several  hundred  feet and
inundated large stretches of the coastal
rivers.  The   ancient  Susquehanna,
which had  drained directly into the
Atlantic Ocean near  what  is now the
mouth of the Bay, was one of these
"drowned"  waterways. Because the
area around the old Susquehanna was
characterized by relatively low relief,
the estuary that was formed by this
mixing of  salt and freshwater covered
a large geographical area but was rela-
tively shallow.  This  newly formed
body of water was later to be named
"Chesapeake  Bay."  Chesapeake Bay
varies from 4 to 30 miles in width and
is about 200 miles long. Although  the
Chesapeake is the largest estuary in the
United  States, with a surface area of
approximately 4,400 square miles, the
average depth  of  the  Bay proper is
only  about 28  feet and  about two-
thirds of the Bay is eighteen feet deep
or  less. There are, however, deep holes
which generally occur  as  long narrow
troughs.  These troughs are thought to
be the remnants of the ancient Susque-
hanna River valley. The deepest of
these holes  is  about  174  feet  and
occurs off Kent Island.
Tidal Currents:
Chesapeake Bay is a complex, dynamic
system.  Words  like  "restless,"  "un-
stable,"   and "unpredictable," which
generally describe the young of most
animal species,  can  also be  used to
describe  the  young estuary. The  ebb
and  flood  of  the  tides  and  the
constant action of the waves are the
most easy to see water movements in
the  Bay.  Average  maximum  tidal
currents range fro 0.5 knots to over 2
knots (1 knot equals 1 nautical  mile
of 6,076 feet per hour.) The average
tidal fluctuation in Chesapeake Bay
is small, generally between one and
two  feet. Except during periods  of
unusually  high winds, waves in the
Bay  are  relatively  small,  generally
less than 3 feet in height.
Salinity Currents:
 In addition to the tides, there is a
 second type of mixing, less obvious,
 non-tidal,   two-layered circulation
 pattern that causes the fresh water to
 move down toward the sea on the
 surface layers, and the salty,  more
 dense water to flow up the estuary on
 the bottom layers. This phenomenon
 is illustrated in Figure 5.  The  tidal
 currents provide some of the mixing
 of the two layers.
 Tides and wave action (as well as other
 types of currents) are  biologically sig-
 nificant in several ways.  They provide
 mixing,  transportation,  and  distribu-
 tion of inorganic  and organic nutri-
 ents.  These water  movements  also
 affect  the  dispersion  of eggs,  larva,
 spores, gametes, and smaller advanced
 stages of resident plants and animals;
 remove waste products and bring food
 and oxygen to fixed bottom-dwelling
  organisms;  and  circulate  chemical
  "clues" which aid predators in locating
  their prey.  Tides and waves are also
  especially  important  ecologically  to
  the intertidal zone  (the shoreline area
  between high  and  low tides)  of an
  estuary because of their  wetting action
  which  is beneficial to many plant and
  animal species. In sheltered waters, the
  mixing  of water by  tidal  and  wave
  action  is important  to keep salinity
  and temperature more even in order
  not to  harm   some  biota.   The
  churning caused by wave action also

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CHESAPEAKE
    BAY

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   Figure 5 : Circulation in a Partially Mixed Estuary
     LIGHTER FRESH WATER
                                                                 RIVER
SEA
plays a role in aeration of the waters
to provide sufficient oxygen for biotic
respiration.
The mixing  in the estuary of sea water
and freshwater creates salinity varia-
tions within the system. In Chesapeake.
Bay, salinities range from 33 parts per
thousand at the mouth of the Bay near
the ocean to  near zero at the north
end of the Bay and at the Fall Line of
the tributaries  to  the  Bay.
Higher salinities are generally found on
the Eastern Shore than on a compara-
ble area of the Western Shore  due to
the greater river inflow on the Western
Shore  and  to the  earth's rotation.
Salinity  patterns  also vary seasonally
according to the amount of freshwater
inflow into the Bay system. Figure 6
illustrates these phenomena.
Due to this seasonal  variation in salin-
ity and the  natural density differences
between fresh and saline waters, sig-
nificant  non-tidal  circulation  often
occurs within the Bay's small tributary
embayments.  In the spring, during the
period of high freshwater inflow to the
Bay, salinity in the  embayments may
be greater than in the Bay. Because of
this salinity difference, surface water
from the Bay flows into the tributaries
on the surface, while the heavier, more
saline  bottom water from  the tribu-
taries  flows into the  Bay along the
bottom.  As  Bay  salinity  becomes
greater through summer and early fall,
Bay waters flow into  the bottom  of
the tributaries, while  tributary  surface
waters flow into the Bay.
The variations in salinity that occur
in the  Bay are  part of the natural
estuary,  and the plants and animals
that live here are ordinarily able to
adjust to  the  changes.  Sudden or
long changes in salinity may upset
the equilibrium between organisms
and their environment. Abnormal
periods  of freshwater  inflow may
alter  salinities sufficiently to cause
widespread    damage    to    the
ecosystem.
                      i
                                  i
Dissolved Oxygen:

Dissolved  oxygen   is  another  im-
portant  physical  factor.  Dissolved
oxygen levels vary considerably both
seasonally and according to depth.
During .the winter the Bay is high in
dissolved  oxygen  content;   since
oxygen is more soluble in cold water
than in warm water. With spring and
higher temperatures, the dissolved r
oxygen  content  decreases.  While!
warmer surface waters
stay near saturation, in deeper waters
the dissolved oxygen content becomes
significantly  less despite  the  cooler
temperatures  because  of  increasing
oxygen demands (by bottom Dwelling
organisms  and  decaying organic mate-
rial)  and  decreased vertical  mixing.
Through the summer, the waters be-
low 30 feet become oxygen deficient.
By early fall, as the surface waters cool
and sink,  vertical mixing takes place
and the oxygen content at all depths
 begins to steadily increase until there
 is  an  almost uniform distribution of
 oxygen. While species vary in the level
 of dissolved oxygen they  can with-
 stand before respiration is affected,
 estuarine^tpecies in general can func-
 tion  in waters with dissolved oxygen
 levels as  low as liO to 2.0 mg/liter.
 Dissolved oxygen levels of about 5.0
 mg/liter   are   generally  considered'
 necessary,  however, to  maintain  a
 healthy  environment  over the  long
 term.

, Temperature:

 The  effects of  temperature  on the
 estuarine  system .are  also extremely
 important.  Since the waters of Chesa-
 peake Bay are relatively shallow com-
 pared to.  the  ocean,  they are  more
 affected by atmospheric temperature
 conditions.  Generally  speaking, the
 annual temperature range in Chesa-
 peake Bay is between 0°C and 29°C.
 Because the mouth of the estuary is
 close to  the sea, it has  a relatively
 stable temperature  as compared with
 the.  upper  reaches. Some heat  is re-
 quired by all organisms for the  func-
 tioning  of  bodily processes.  These
 processes are restricted, however, to a
 particular temperature  range.  Temper-
 atures above  or  below  the  critical
 range for a particular  species can be
 fatal unless the  organism is able to
 move out  of the  area.  Temperature
 also causes variations in water density

  Light:

  Light is  necessary  for the survival, of
  plants because  of its  role in photo-
  synthesis.  Turbidity,  more than any
  other physical factor,  determines the
 depth light will penetrate in an estu-
 ary. Turbidity  is suspended material,

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Figure 6:  Geographical and Seasonal Variations in Salinities in Chesapeake Bay
                                                          JH   CHESAPEAKE  BAY
                                                          f::
                                                          !i!   SURFACE SALINITY (%„)

                                                              WINTER  AVERAGE

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mineral and/or organic in origin, which
is transported through the estuary by
wave action, tides, and currents. While  •
the absence of light may be beneficial
to some bottom  dwelling organisms
since  they can come  out during day-
light hours and feed in relative safety,
this condition limits  the distribution
of plant life because of the restriction
of  photosynthetic  activity.  This  re-
striction of plant life (especially plank-
ton in the open estuary) will reduce
the benthic (i.e., bottom dwelling) and
zooplankton   populations  which in
turn will reduce fish productivity.

 Nutrients:

Nutrients are the minerals essential to
the  normal  functioning  of  an   or-
ganism. In Chesapeake Bay, important
nutrients   include  nitrogen,  phos-
phorus, carbon, iron,  manganese,  and
potassium. It is generally believed that
most   of  the nutrients  required  by
estuarine organisms are present in suf-
ficient quantity in Chesapeake Bay.
Excesses of some nutrients are often a
more  important  problem than defi-
ciencies,  Excesses of  nitrogen  and
phosphorus,  for example, may cause
an  increase in the rate of eutrophi-
cation which, in  turn, can eliminate
desirable  species,  encourage   the
growth of obnoxious algae,  and cause
low dissolved oxygen conditions from
the decay of dead organisms and other
materials.  Relatively  little  is  known
about the quantities  of specific nutri-
ents  necessary for the healthy func-
tioning of individual  species,  or more
importantly,  of  biological  com-
munities.

While it is necessary  to keep in mind
the interactions of these physical and
chemical  variables   when   studying
Chesapeake   Bay,  these  parameters
should not and,  in  fact,  cannot be
 addressed  separately.  The  Bay  eco-
system is  characterized  by  the  dy-
namic interplay between  many com-
 plex factors. As a simple example, the
levels  of salinity and temperature will
both  affect  the  metabolism of an
 aquatic  organism. In addition, both
 salinity and  temperature  can cause  a
 drop in  the oxygen  concentration in
 the water and thus an increase in the
 required  respiration  rate of the or-
 ganism. While it is true the effects of
 these  variables individually may be of
 a non-critical nature, the combined
 effects of the three stresses  may be
 6
severe to the point of causing death.
These three factors in  turn,  also
interact  with  other  physical  and
chemical  variables,  such  as  pH,
carbon     dioxide   levels,    and
availability   of   nutrients,   and
numerous others. The subtle variable
of time may- also become critical in
many cases'. The important point is
that  the  physical   and   chemical
environment      provided      by
Chesapeake Bay to the plants and
animals  is  extremely complex and
difficult,   if  not  impossible,   to
completely understand.

THE BIOTA OF CHESAPEAKE BAY

The  estuary is  biologically  a  very
special place. It is a very  demanding
environment because it is  constantly
changing.  The  resident  plants  and
animals  must be able  to  adjust to
changes  in  physical  and chemical
environment. The  requirement  for
adjustment  limits  the  number of
species of plants and  animals that
are able to survive and reproduce in
the  estuary. Despite  the fact that
relatively  few   species  inhabit  the
Bay, the   Chesapeake,   like most
estuaries, is an extremely productive .
ecosystem.

  Productivity:
There are  a number of reasons why
estuaries are so  productive. First,  the,
circulation  patterns in  the area of
mixing  of lighter  freshwater  with
heavier sea water  in a partially mixed
estuary such as  Chesapeake Bay tend
to  create  a "nutrient  trap"  which
acts  to  retain  and  recirculate nutri-
ents (see  Figure  5).  Second, water
movements in the estuary do a great
deal of  "work" removing  wastes and
transporting food  and nutrients  en-
abling many organisms to maintain  a
productive existence which does not
require the expenditure of a great deal
of  energy  for  excretion  and  food
gathering.  Third, the  recycling  and
retention  of nutrients  by bottom-
dwelling  organisms, the  effects of
 deeply penetrating plant roots, and the
constant formation of detrital material
in  the  wetlands create   a  form of
 "self-enriching" system. Last, estuaries
benefit from a  diversity  of producer
 plant types which  together provide
 year-round energy  to  the  system.
Chesapeake Bay has all three types of
producers that  power the ecosystems
of our world: macrophytes (marsh and
sea  grasses),   benthic.  microphytes.
(algae  which  live  on .or near  the
bottom), and phytoplankton  (minute
floating plants).

PRODUCERS

AQUATIC PLANTS

As  implied  above,  certain   aquatic
plants are critical to the health and
productivity   of  Chesapeake   Bay.
Green plants  use  sunlight  and  the
inorganic nutrients  in  the  water to
produce  the energy to drive the estua-
rine  ecosystem.  Thus,  these plants,
ranging from the microscopic algae to
the  larger rooted  aquatics,  are  the
primary producers-the first link in the
aquatic  food  chain. Aquatic  plants
exist in  the natural  environment in
many shapes,  forms, and degree of
specialization. They are also found
in waters of widely varying  physical
and chemical quality.

"Phytoplankton" is a general  term for
aquatic plants of both fresh and saline
waters  which  are  characteristically
free-floating  and microscopic.   The
most important of the phytoplankton
are  the  green algaes,  diatoms,  and
dinoflagellates.   The  population  of
these  organisms  is  represented  by
relatively few species, but when  they
do occur, they are present in tremen-
dous numbers. Phytoplankton are the
principal photosynthetic producers in
the  marine, estuarine, and freshwater
environments,  and  will  grow in  the
water column to any depth that light
will  penetrate. Blue-green algae  are
another  type  of phytoplankton or-
ganism which  are not generally  con-
sidered to be of importance in aquatic
productivity, but are best known for
the  nuisance conditions caused  when
their growth  occurs in  excess.  Huge
populations,  or  blooms,  of  these
organisms located near the surface of
the  water reduce the sunlight available
to  bottom-dwelling  organisms.   The
blooms can also give  off objectionable
 odors,  clog  industrial and municipal
 water intakes, and  generally  cause
 nuisance conditions.

 Macrophytes are, as the Greek roots of
 the  word  indicate,  "large   plants."

-------
Unlike  the  freely  floating,  or only
weakly  motile, and  minute  phyto-
plankton,  the  macrophytic  aquatic
plants  are generally either rooted or
otherwise fastened in some manner to
the bottom. All of the  forms  require
sunlight  to  conduct  photosynthesis
and  most have defined  leaflets which
grow either entirely submerged, float-
ing on the surface  of the water, or out
of  the  water  with  leaf  surfaces in
direct contact with the atmosphere.
The   distribution   of  Macrophytes
ranges from entirely freshwater to the
open ocean. These types of plants are
not  only  important  as   food  and
habitat  for fish and wildlife, but they
are also important in  the  recovery of
nutrients from deep sediments.
 The "Biota" section of the Chesapeake
 Bay Existing  Conditions Report and
 Appendices 14 and  15  of the Chesa-
 peake  Bay Future Conditions Report
 include a more detailed discussion of
 aquatic  plants  —   their   types  and
 distribution,  importance in  the  eco-
 system,  and  the  problems associated
 with them.

 CONSUMERS:

FISH AND WILDLIFE

 The energy supplied  to the ecosystem
 by  the green plants of the Bay must be
 made available in  some manner to the
 meat-eating predators, including  man,
 which  are  higher in  the food chain.
 This  vital  link  is  filled  by  many
 different varieties of organisms such as
 zooplankton  and  various  species of
 worms, shellfish, crabs, and  fmfish.
 Zooplankton  include small crustaceans
 such as copepods, the larva of most of
 the  estuarine  fishes  and  shellfishes,
 several  shrimp-like species, and  other
 animal forms that generally float with
 the  currents and tides. Phytoplankton
 and plant  detritus  (along  with  ad-
 sorbed  bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and
 micro-algae) are consumed directly by
 the  zooplankton  and  other  larger
 aquatic species.

 If man through his activity interrupts
 an   established energy  flow  in  the
 environment,  he may  cause energy
 losses  to the system as well as  other
 detrimental biological effects.  Man's
 activities, for example, may cause  the
 loss of a detritus producing area (e.g.,
 a stand of saltmarsh cordgrass) result-
 ing in a decline of the organisms which
 primarily  feed  on detritus. A loss of
 this nature directly affects  the next
 higher'trophic level, thereby  starting a
 chain  reaction throughout the  food
 web. Generally, in estuaries, there is a
 great deal of  dependence  of larger
 organisms  on   a  few  key   smaller
 organisms  that utilize  detritus  and
 micro-algae for food.

 Like  the  aquatic plant communities,
 the  aquatic animal  communities are
not  spread evenly  throughout  the
Bay.  Although the entire  Estuary
serves   as  nursery   and  primary
habitat for fmfish,  spawning areas
are concentrated in the areas of low
salinity and freshwater in the Upper
Bay and  corresponding  portions of
the major tributaries.  The northern
part of Chesapeake Bay, including
the   Chesapeake   and  Delaware
Canal, is  probably the largest of all
spawning areas in the Bay. This area
plus  the  upper  portions  of  the
Potomac,   YorX,  Rappahannock,
James,    and    Patuxent   Rivers,
represent  about  90 percent  of the
anadromous  fish (i.e., those which
ascend  rivers   from  the  sea   to
reproduce) spawning grounds in the
Chesapeake Bay Region.  The Bay
serves  as  a  spawning and nursery
ground for fish caught from  Maine
to North Carolina. Some of the fish
that use the Bay as a nursery include
Striped    bass,   weakfish,   shad,
ilewife, blueback herring, croaker,
/menhaden and kingfish  (see Figure
 7).
Oysters are abundant in many parts of
the Estuary. The numerous small bays,
coves,  and inlets between the Chester
and Nanticoke Rivers along the East-
ern Shore and  the lower portions of
the Patuxent, Potomac, York, Rappa-
hannock, and  James  Rivers account
for approximately  90 percent of the
annual harvest of oysters.

Some species of Chesapeake Bay fish
and shellfish thrive in the saltier waters
of  the Estuary. The mouth of  the
Chesapeake, an area of high salinity, is
the major blue  crab spawning area in
the Bay and its tributaries.

 In  addition to Chesapeake Bay's large
 resources of fmfish and shellfish, the
 marshes  and woodlands  in  the  Area
 provide  many thousands  of acres of
 natural habitat for a variety of water-
 fowl, other birds, reptiles, amphibians,
 and mammals.

 Waterfowl:

 Chesapeake  Bay is  the  constricted
 neck  in  the gigantic funnel  pattern
 that forms the Atlantic Flyway.  Most
 of the waterfowl  reared  in the area
 between  the western shore of Hudson
 Bay and Greenland spend some time in
 the  marshes  of  the Bay  and its
 tributaries  during  their  migrations.
 Good  wintering areas  adjacent  to
 preferred  upland   feeding   grounds
 attract more  than  75 percent of the
 wintering  population  of   Atlantic
 Flyway  Canada geese.  The  marshes
Figure  7:   Fishes:  Their Use of the Estuary

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and  grain  fields  of  the  Delmarva
Peninsula are  particularly attractive to
Canada geese and grain-feeding swans,
mallards, and black  ducks. The Sus-
quehanna Flats, located at the head of
the  Bay,   support  huge  flocks  of
American  widgeon in  the  early fall,
while several  species  of diving ducks,
including  canvasback,  redhead,  ring-
neck, and  scaup,  winter throughout
Chesapeake Bay. About half  of the
80,000  whistling  swans  in  North
America winter on the small estuaries
in or  around  the  Bay. While  the
Chesapeake  is primarily a wintering
ground  for  birds that  nest  further
north, several  species  of waterfowl,
including the black duck, blue-winged
teal,  and   wood  duck, find  suitable
nesting  and  brood-raising  habitat in
the Bay Region.

 Other birds:

In addition to waterfowl, many other
species of birds  are  found in the Bay
Area. Some rely primarily on wetlands
for  their  food   and   other  habitat
requirements. These  include rails, var-
ious  sparrows,  marsh  wrens,   red-
winged  blackbirds, snipe, sandpipers,
plovers, marsh hawk, shorteared owl,
herons, egrets,  gulls,  terns, oyster
catcher,  and curlews.  Many  of the
above species are insectivores, feeding
on grasshoppers,  caterpillars,  beetles,
flies, and mosquitoes,  while  others
feed on seeds, frogs, snakes, fish, and
shellfish.  There are numerous  other
birds which  rely more heavily on the
wooded uplands and agricultural lands
for  providing their  basic habitat and
food  requirements.  Among   these
species are many game birds, including
wild turkey,  mourning dove, bob white
quail, woodcock,  and  pheasant.  It
should  be emphasized that  some of
these species require both an upland
and a wetland habitat. Modest popula-
tions of  ospreys  and American  bald
eagles also inhabit the Bay Region.


 Mammals:
The  Chesapeake  Bay  Region is also
home  for  most   of  the  common
mammals  which  are   native  to  the
coastal Mid-Atlantic  Region. The inter-
spersion of  forest and farmland and
the  proximity of shore and  wetland
areas form the basis for a great variety
 of ecological systems. The abundance
 of food such as mast and grain crops
and the high quality cover vegetation
found  on  the  wooded uplands and
agricultural lands support good popu-
lations of white-tailed deer, cottontail
rabbit, red fox, gray fox, gray squirrel,
woodchuck, opossum, and skunk. The
various  vegetation  types  found  in
wetland  areas  provide  indispensible
natural   habitat   requirements   for
beaver,  o'tter,  mink, muskrat, marsh
rabbit, and  nutria. In addition, there
are  numerous  species of small mam-
mals,  reptiles, and amphibians which
inhabit the Study Area and are integral
parts of both the upland and wetland
food cycles.

IMPORTANT PLANT AND ANIMAL
ORGANISMS

A  survey of  prominent Bay  Area
scientists  was  conducted  to  deter-
mine the  most important plant and
animal  species based  on economic,
biological, and social  criteria. For
example,  a  species would qualify as
an  "important  species" if it  were
either   a  commercial  species,  a
species    pursued    for   sport,   a
prominent  species  important  for
energy transfer to organisms higher
in the food chain, a mammal or bird
protected by  Federal law, or if it
caused  harm to other  species im-
portant to man. The common names
of  the  124  species   and  genera
identified according to these criteria
are presented in Table 3.

PLANT AND ANIMAL
COMMUNITIES

Although the plants and animals of
Chesapeake  Bay have  been treated
separately in the previous  discussion,
 in  the real world they are
 bound  together in communities. Bay
communities are important because of
the complex interactions between in-
habiting  organisms,  both  plant  and
animal, and between one community
and another. In the "eelgrass"  com-
munity,  for  example,  the  organic
detritus  formed by  eelgrass,  plus the
microorganisms adsorbed on it, repre-
sent  the  main  energy  source   for
animals living in the community and
for animals outside the community to
which detritus is transported. In addi-
tion,  eelgrass performs the following
physical and biological functions:
   1. It provides a habitat for a wide
variety of organisms
   2.  It is utilized as a nursery ground
by fish

   3.  It is a food source for ducks and
brant
   4.  The plant physically acts  as  a
stabilizing  factor  for  bottom  sedi-
ments,  which allows greater  animal
diversity

   5.  It  plays  a  role  in reducing
turbidity and erosion in coastal bays.

Appendix 15 presents  more  detailed
information  on   the  eelgrass  com-
munity as well as the "oyster"  com-
munity, two of the most important in
the Chesapeake  Bay System, and the
physical  and  chemical   parameters
which affect them.

It  is  evident  from  the  preceding
discussion that Chesapeake Bay  is an
almost  incomprehensibly   complex
physical and biological  system. When
the  human  element is  added,  the
complexities and interrelationships be-
come even more involved.
            THE PEOPLE

 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

 When Captain  John Smith  first  ex-
 plored the Chesapeake in 1608, it was
 an estuary which had yet to feel  the
 impact  of man  to any significant
 extent.  But,  even  before  Captain
 Smith's  voyage, people had settled on
 the shores of the Bay  drawn  by its
 plentiful supplies of fish and game.
 These settlements were inhabited by
 Assateagues,  Nanticoke,  Susquehan-
 nock, and  Choptank Indians. It was
 the Indian that provided the names for
 many promontories  of land and water
 courses. The relatively few wastes gen-
 erated by  the  Indians  were easily
 assimilated  by the  natural cleansing
 action of the  Bay and its tributaries.
 Later, more and more people moved
 into the Bay Region, attracted first by
 a  soil and climate  favorable to  the
 growth  of tobacco, and later by the
 development  of major manufacturing
 and transportation  centers as well as
 the founding of the Nation's capital at
 Washington, D.C. By 1974, 366 years
 after  Captain  Smith's  voyage up the
 8

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                                   TABLE 3
        IMPORTANT CHESAPEAKE BAY PLANT AND ANIMAL ORGANISMS-
                               COMMON NAMES
  Blue-green alga
**Diatom (4 genera)
  Dinoflagellate (3 species)
  Sea lettuce
  Green alga
  Red alga

  Vascular Plants
  (Marsh and aquatic)

 *Widgeongrass
  Saltmarsh Cordgrass
  Eelgrass
  Horned pondweed
  Wild rice
  Cattails
  Pondweeds
  Arrow-arum
  Wild celery

  Cnidaria

 * Stinging nettle
**Hydroid

  Ctenophora (comb jellies)

  Comb jelly (2 species)

  Platyhelminthes
  (flatworms)

  Flatworm

  Annelida (Worms)

** Blood worm
  dam worm
  Polychaete worm (4 genera)
  Oligochaete worm

  Mollusca (Shellfish)

  Eelgrass snail
  Oyster drill
  Marsh periwinkle
  Hooked mussel
  Ribbed mussel
  Oyster
  Hard shell clam
                              Mollusca (Shellfish)
                                   (Cont.)
**Coot clam
**Brackish water clam
  Balthic macoma
  Stout razor clam
  Razor clam
 *Soft shell clam
  Asiatic clam

  Arthropoda (Crabs,
  shrimp, and other
  crustacean!)

  Barnacle
 "Copepod (2 genera)
  Opposum shrimp
  Cumacean
  Isopod (2 species)
  Amphipod  (5 genera)
  Sand flea
**Grass shrimp
**Sand shrimp
"Xanthid crab (2 species)
  Blue crab

  Urochordata

  Sea squirt

  Pisces (Fish)

  Cownose ray
  Eel
**Shad, herring
  Menhaden
  Anchovy
  Variegated  minnow
  Catfish, bullheads
  Hogchoker
**Killifish
  Silverside
**White perch
  Striped bass
  Black sea bass
  Weakfish
**Spot
  Blenny
  Goby
  Harvestfish
  Flounder
   *Life histories discussed in the "Biota" Chapter of the
    Chesapeake Bay Existing Conditions Report.
   "Life histories discussed in the "Biota" Appendix of the
     Chesapeake Bay Future Conditions Report.
  Pisces (Fish) (Cont.)

**Northern puffer
  Oyster toadfish

  Reptiles

** Snapping turtle
"Diamond-backed terrapin

  Aves (Birds)

  Horned grebe
  Cattle egret
  Great blue heron
  Glossy ibis
"Whistling swan
"Canada goose
  Wood duck
"Black duck
  Canvasback
  Lesser scaup
"Bufflehead
"Osprey
  Clapper rail
  Virginia rail
  American coot
  American woodcock
  Common snipe
  Semipalmated sandpiper
  Laughing gull
  Herring gull
  Great black-backed gull
  Forster's tern
  Least tern

  Mammalia (Mammals)

  Beaver
  Muskrat
  Mink
  Otter
  Raccoon
  White-tailed deer

  Endangered Species

  Shortnose sturgeon
  Atlantic sturgeon
  Maryland darter
  Southern bald eagle
  American peregrine falcon
  Ipswich sparrow
  Delmarva fox squirrel
  Bay, there were 8.2  million  people
  living in the Bay Region.


  During Colonial times, the Chesapeake
  Bay Region  was  one of the primary
  growth centers  of the  New  World.
  However,  after the  decline  of  the
  Region's tobacco industry in the 19th
  century, population  growth began to
              lag. This period of relative stagnation
              lasted  until World War II when large
              increases  in Federal spending (espe-
              cially on defense) stimulated employ-
              ment and population growth within all
              the economic subregions. As shown in
              Table 4, the areas around Washington,
              D.G.   and  Norfolk,  Virginia,  have
              experienced  especially  high  rates of
              growth since World War II. Over half
of the total population growth in the
Bay Region between the time of the
Jamestown settlement to the  present
occurred during the 1940-1970 period.
Population in the Region has increased
since the 1970 Census considerably.
The majority of the inhabitants of the
Chesapeake Bay Area are concentrated
in relatively small areas in and around
the  major cities.  People have tended
to  move out  of the inner cities and
rural counties  and into the suburban
counties.   Thirty-five   of  the   76
counties and major independent cities
in  the  Area experienced  a net  out-
migration   during   the   1960^1970
period. On the  other hand, most of the
suburban counties experienced growth
rates in excess  of  30 percent  and
in-migrations of at least 10 percent of
their 1960 population. In  the  Bay
Region  as  a whole,  net  in-migration
accounted  for  about one-third of the
1.5  million  increase in  population
during the  decade of the 1960's. Most
of this in-migration was in response to
large increases  in employment oppor-
tunities in the Bay Region.

In  1970, there  were approximately 3.3
million people  employed in the Study
Area.  About  91  percent  of these
worked  in one of the  Region's seven
SMSA's.   During   the  1960-1970
period, total employment increased by
about three-quarters  of a million  jobs
or   approximately 30 percent.   The
National gain during the same period
was 19.5 percent.

Compared to  the Nation as a whole,
the Bay Region has a lower proportion
of workers in the blue-collar indus-
tries, such as manufacturing and  min-
ing, and a higher proportion in the
white-collar industries, such as public
administration and services. Due to
a higher percentage of white collar
workers  the  Study Area has  had
consistently   lower  unemployment
rates over the  last several decades
than the  Nation as a whole.  Also
contributing to these relatively stable
employment   levels  are   the  large
numbers  of  workers  whose   jobs
depended  on  relatively  consistent
Federal government spending.

Per capita  income in the Bay Area was
$3,694 in 1969, which was  about 9
percent  higher   than  the  National
figure.  Median family income levels

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                                                   TABLE 4
                        POPULATION GROWTH IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STUDY AREA DURING THE
                                    1940-1970 PERIOD BY ECONOMIC SUBREGION
Study Area Portions of BEA
Economic Regions*
Baltimore, Maryland
Washington, D. C.
Richmond, Virginia
Norfolk-Portsmouth, Va.
Wilmington, Del. SMSA
Total Study Area
Total United States
1940
Population
1,481,179
1,086,262
437,103
467,229
248,243
3,720,016
132,165,129
1970
Population
2,481,402
3,040,371
728,946
1,121,856
499,493
7,872,068
203,211,926
Absolute
Change
+ 1,000,223
+ 1,954,109
+ 291,843
+ 654,627
+ 251,250
+ 4,152,052
+71,046,797
Percentage
Change
+ 67.5
+179.9
+ 66.8
+140.1
+101.2
+111.6
+ 53.8
      Source: U.S. Census Data
      *See Figure 1

ranged from $16,710 in Montgomery
County, Maryland, (one of the highest
in  the   Nation),  to   $4,778  in
Northampton  County, .Virginia.  As
shown  in   Table  5,   there  was  a
significantly  higher   proportion  of
families in the over $15,000 income
bracket  and  fewer  families  whose
incomes were  below the poverty level
in the Bay Area than in the Nation.

ECONOMIC SECTORS

MANUFACTURING

Generally speaking,  the Chesapeake
Bay Region  has a lower proportion of
its  workers employed  in heavy water-
impacting  industries   than  in  the
Nation as a  whole (see Figure 8). For.
example,  manufacturing  activities in
the   Bay  Region  employed  some
524,000 workers in 1970, or about 16
percent of  the total employment in.
the  Study  Area. This  figure was
significantly lower than the National
figure of approximately 25 percent. In
addition,  manufacturing  employment
in the Bay Region grew by 6 percent
during the 1960-1970 period,  which
was well  below the National growth
rate of 13 percent.

Despite  the  fact that the  manufac-
turing sector was not  as important to
the economy  of the Study Area as in
the Nation as a whole, the sector  still
has a great  deal of significance. First,
the navigation channels in Chesapeake
Bay are used by many Area manufac-
turers  as a  means of  shipping  raw
materials   to   their   factories   and
finished  products to  market. Second,
many manufacturing firms use water
in their production process, usually for
cleaning or  cooling  purposes.  This
water is often returned  to the Bay
system  untreated  or  only partially
treated. Industrial wastes are sometimes
toxic as the recent kepone incident in
the James River demonstrates.

As Figure 9 indicates, in addition to
the fact that there is a relatively low
proportion of workers  in  manufac-
turing in the Bay Region, the majority
of the manufacturing industries which
are  located in  the  Area  are  not
considered to  be major  water  users
(i.e.,  chemicals,  pulp   and  paper,
metals,  petroleum refinery, and food
and  kindred  products).  The  heavy
water users that do exist are generally
concentrated in the Upper Bay around
Baltimore  and  in  the  Wilmington,
Delaware  SMSA. Employment in the
chemical and metal industries is cen-
tered around Baltimore,  Wilmington,
and  Richmond. Food  and  kindred
products employment is concentrated
on the Eastern Shore, in the Washing-
ton  SMSA, and in Norfolk. The only
major pulp and paper mill in the Bay
Region   is  located  at   West  Point,
Virginia. There is also  currently only
one major petroleum refinery in the
Region  which is located at Yorktown,
Virginia. Other significant  concentra-
tions of manufacturing industries are:
printing and publishing and the two
machinery categories in the Washing-
ton area, transportation equipment
around  Norfolk-Portsmouth,   and
tobacco processing in the Richmond
SMSA. A more detailed discussion of
industrial activity in the Bay Region is
provided in Appendix 3 - "Economic
and Social Profile".

PUBLIC ADMINISTRA TION

The  public   administration   sector,
which includes civilian workers in the
Federal, State, and local governments,
is  extremely  important to the  econ-
omy of the Bay Region. In 1970, this
sector   employed   approximately
475,000 people or about 14 percent of
the total workers. This is significantly
higher than the National average of 5
percent.  Employment  in  this sector
grew   36    percent   during  the
1960-1970 decade, very close to the
37 percent  rate  of growth  for the
Nation.

Although  the  public  administration
sector ranked  only  fourth  in total
employment  in the  Study Area, the
sector is  far  more  important  to the
Region's economy than these employ-
ment figures  indicate.  First, earnings
are higher than average in this sector.
This  has  helped to  stimulate other
sectors of the economy, especially the
retail  trade  and  service industries.
Second,  the  Federal portion  of the
public administration  sector  can  be
thought of as a "basic" industry since
it exports its "product" (public ser-
                                 TABLE5
            FAMILY INCOME DISTRIBUTION FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
                   STUDY AREA AND THE UNITED STATES, 1969

Study Area
United States
Percent Below
Poverty Level
11.2
12.2
"Middle" Income
Families
61.3
68.6
Percent Above
$15,000
27.5
19.2
 10

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Figure 9: Manufacturing Employment for the Chespeake Bay Study Area and United States, 1970
                                                                                      Furniture, Lumber and Wood Products
                                                                                  13.9%
                                                                                                        Metal Industries
                                                                                              Machinery, Except Electrical


                                                                                Electrical Machinery, Equipment and Supplies


                                                                             13.0%
                                                                                                Transportation  Equipment


                                                                 Other Durable Goods (includes stone, clay, glass and concrete
                                                       9.1%   products and professional photographic and time keeping equipment)


                                                                                               Food and Kindred Products


                                                                                    Textiles and Fabricated Textile Products


                                                                                    Printing, Publishing, and Allied Industries


                                                                                            Chemicals and Allied Products

                                                                            1 2.9%
                                                                                 Other Nondurable Goods (includes tobacco,
                                                                 paper, petroleum refining, rubber, plastics, and leather products)
     Source:  U.S. Census of Population: 1970, "General Social and Economic Characteristics."
 vices) to the  entire  Nation, thereby,
 bringing  money into  the Region and
 creating jobs.

 The  bulk of the total Public Admin-
istration  employment  in  the  Study
Area (almost 66 percent) is located in
the   Washington,  B.C.  area.  Other
concentrations  of workers are in the
 Richmond, Virginia, vicinity, through-
out much of the Baltimore, Maryland,
SMSA, and in the Norfolk-Portsmouth
area.

The  public  administration sector can
be considered a "clean" industry from
a water resources viewpoint. There are
no  special requirements for water for
either  processing   or  transportation
purposes. However, fast-growing indus-
tries, such as the public administration
sector, with its tremendous drawing
capacity  for workers and their  fam-
                                                   Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries*
                                        Transportation. Communication and Public Utilities*

                                         17.2%
                                                                    Armed Forces
 * Denotes Heavy Water-Impacting Industries
                                                          Source: U.S. Census Data
Figure 8: Employment by Economic Sectors, Chesapeake Bay Study Area and
          United States,  1970
                                                                                                                         11

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ilies, can often cause rates of popula-
tion growth that tax the  ability  of
local  government to provide services
such  as  water supply and sewerage.
The Washington,  D.C.  area with  its
until  recently overloaded waste treat-
ment plants and its increasingly inade-
quate water supply is a good example
of this.

AGRICULTURE

Although less than  2 percent of the
total  workers in the Chesapeake Bay
Region  are employed in the agricul-
tural  sector (i.e., the actual planting,
cultivation,  and  harvesting  of raw
agricultural  goods),  these  activities
have  a  great  deal of impact on  the
Area's economy  and water  and land
resources.  In 1969  (the  latest data
available at .this writing), the value of
all  farm products sold by commercial
farms in the Bay Region was approxi-
mately  $589  million. Approximately
87 percent of the developed land in
the Bay Region is used for agricultural
purposes.  Poor  farming  techniques,
both  in the  past and present, have
resulted  in the  extensive erosion  of
valuable soils which,  in  turn,  has
caused  the siltation of many  of  the
Bay's waterways.  Run-off from fields
sprayed with  chemical  fertilizers add
large  quantities  of nutrients  to  the
waterways. This  practice has resulted
in  an  increase   in  the   amounts  of
undesirable algae and other vegetation
in some waters, thereby decreasing the
amounts of available oxygen in  the
water and, in extreme cases, causing
fish  kills.   In addition,  the  use  of
insecticides in agricultural areas  has
caused  significant damage to fish  and
wildlife populations in the Bay Region
with  the  classic examples being  the
effects  of  DDT on the bald eagle arid
osprey  populations.


FISHERIES

Just  as  the Indians and  early settlers
harvested  the Bay's plentiful supplies
 of finfish, shellfish, and crabs, modern
 day  watermen   harvest  and  market
large quantities  of the  Chesapeake's
 living treasures.  In 1973, commercial
 landings of shellfish and finfish totaled
 565 million pounds with a value at the
 dock of approximately  $47.9 million.
 This catch amounted to  an average of
 200  pounds per surface acre of water.
In addition, sport landings of finfish
and shellfish in recent years have been
estimated  to  be  as   large  as  the
commercial catch for  some  species.
However, even  when the value of the
sports  fishing catch is  added to the
commercial catch value, the total is a
very small percentage of the value of
agricultural pro'ducts, for example, and
almost negligible when compared to
value  added  in the   manufacturing
sector. On the other hand, the fisheries
and watermen of Chesapeake Bay add
a generous amount of  regional color
and tradition to the "way  of life" in
the Bay  Region. These benefits are
difficult, if not impossible, to measure.

Because  agricultural products and sea-
food  are often perishable, they are
usually processed in close proximity to
where they are harvested. As a result,
the agricultural and seafood harvesting
sectors  in the  Bay  Region  support
locally   important   food   processing
plants.

ARMED FORCES

Still  another  important   source  of
employment for residents  of the Bay
Region is the Armed Forces. In 1970,
there  were  approximately  250,000
members of the Armed  Forces sta-
tioned  within  the Study Area, repre-
senting almost 8 percent of the  total
employment. This percentage was sig-
nificantly higher  than  the National
figure of 2.5  percent. The cities  of
Norfolk  and  Virginia  Beach in the
Hampton Roads  area   and  Anne
Arundel, Prince Georges, and Fairfax
counties in the Baltimore  and Wash-
ington,   D.C.,  areas   contained  the
largest  numbers of military personnel.
 Construction   Activitites   Can  Have
 Severe   Impacts.
 CONSTRUCTION

 The construction sector  in  the Bay
 Region   employed   approximately
 200,000 people in 1970. Construction
 activities  have had a  great  deal  of
 impact on the water  resources of the
 Bay Region.  Much of the disturbed
 soil on construction sites  becomes
 sediment  in streams  and rivers. This
 silt  can  adversely  affect  fish and
 wildlife  populations, clog navigation
channels, increase the costs  of treat-
ment for  city  and  industrial  water
supplies, make water-based recreation
less enjoyable, and generally lower the
aesthetic   quality  of  a  waterway.
Unfortunately, the areas in the Region
with the most construction activity are
the  same  areas  in  which  there  are
already  significant industrial  and resi-
dential strains on the Bay.

OTHER SECTORS

The  remaining  Bay Region  workers,
which account  for more than one-half
of the total, are employed  in one of
the following sectors:

   1. Wholesale and retail trade

   2. Transportation,    communica-
tions, and public utilities

   3. Finance,  insurance,  and  real
estate

   4. Services
 "These jobs are generally 'supportive'
 of the economic sectors discussed pre-
 viously. With  the exception  of the
 transportation   and  public  utilities
 sectors which  are discussed in more
 detail in the "Navigation," "Electric
 Power," "Water Supply," and "Water
 Quality" Appendices,  they  do  not
 have a significant impact on the water
 resources of the Region. Many of these
 activities, however, exist in the Region
 because  of the  proximity   of  the
 Chesapeake   Bay    resource.   For
 example, the  Bay's  land and water
 resources allow for the development of
 certain "regionally-unique" entertain-
 ment  and  recreation  services which
 help  to  expand  the  service  sector.
 These include such activities as private
 bathing beaches, pleasure and fishing
 boat  rentals, and the  operation of
 seafood  restaurants  serving  regional
 specialities. Some of the other activi-
 ties   (e.g.,  finance,   insurance, retail
 trade, real estate, and certain services)
 exist in the Bay Region because it is an
 area which is characterized by higher
 than average incomes and population
 growth  rates.  The   location  of  the
 Nation's  capitol  in  the   Area   also
 attracts many workers in these sectors
 due  to the regulatory functions of the
 Federal  Government  and  the desir-
 ability of companies in the regulated
 12

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industries  to maintain offices in  the
Washington area.


ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC
PROJECTIONS

OBERS SERIES C

The base projections used in the future
needs analysis for most of the Appen-
dices   of   the  "Future  Conditions
Report" are  based on  the  Series C
OBERS  projections  of  population,
income, earnings,  and manufacturing
output prepared by the Department of
Commerce and the  Department  of
Agriculture. A special set of projec-
tions  coinciding with the Chesapeake
Bay Study Area and the subregions as
delineated in Figure 1 was prepared by
the  Bureau  of  Economic   Analysis
(BEA)  of the  U.S.  Department  of
Commerce.  An explanation  of  the
methodology   used to   prepare  the
OBERS projections  and  the  special
disaggregation by BEA is  contained in
Appendix 3, "An Economic and Social
Profile." Figure 10 illustrates the great
potential for growth that lies in  the
Chesapeake Bay Region.

The bulk of the total population and
employment growth (about 52 percent
in each category) is expected to take
place in the Study Area portion of the
Washington, D.C. Economic Area. This
area is projected to experience popula-
tion and employment growth rates of
about   143   percent   during   the
1970-2020  period.  The Richmond
subregion  and the Wilmington SMSA
are also expected to grow at a faster
rate than  the Study Area as a whole
with  rates of  113 percent  and  123
percent, respectively.  On  the other
hand,  the  Baltimore and  Norfolk-
Portsmouth subregions  are  projected
to  grow at significantly  lower  rates
with  figures  of 85 percent and  45
percent.

Real per capita income in the Study
Area  is projected to remain  slightly
above  the National average through
the projection period. Table 6 presents
projections  of  population  and  per
capita income by subregion.
One of the major driving forces behind
the significant increases in population
and  income  outlined  above  will  be
major increases in manufacturing out-
put.  As shown in Table 7, manufactur-
ing  output  in the Chesapeake  Bay
Region is expected to  increase by 563
percent. However,  the proportion  of
total output  accounted  for  by  the
heavy water-impacting industries as a
group (i.e.,  Metals, Petroleum Refin-
ing,   Food  and  Kindred  Products,
Chemicals,   and  Paper  and  Allied
Products)   is  expected  to  decline
slightly from 56.8  percent in 1969 to
54.3 percent in 2020.  In addition, the
manufacturing sector  is  expected  to
continue to account for a significantly
lower portion  of  total employment
and income in the Bay Region than in
the United States.
OBERS SERIES E

Since  the  initiation  of  the  future
conditions  phase of  the  Chesapeake
Bay  Study,  another  set of baseline
projections derived from  more recent
economic  and demographic data was
prepared and released by BEA. These
new projections, called the "Series E"
OBERS  projections,  must  be  con-
sidered by all Federal agencies engaged
in water resource planning as directed
by the Water Resource Council. The
basic differences between the assump-
tions made  in preparing  the Series C
and Series E projections are shown in
Table  8 and  are  discussed  in more
detail  in Appendix  3 -  "Economic
and  Social  Profile." The Series  E
population  projection of 14.1 million
people for the total Study  Area in the
year  2020  is  approximately   13.5
percent less than the  Series C estimate
for  the same year. The Series  E
projections  for the  Study Area for
1980 and 2000 are also lower than the
Series C projections for the same years
by  4.5  percent   and  7.3  percent,
respectively. In addition, the Series E
population  projections for almost all
the subregions are  lower  than  the
comparable Series C projections.

Recently released  estimates  of 1975
population by  county prepared by the
U.S. Bureau of the  Census allow a
comparison  of  actual   population
trends  in the  Chesapeake  Bay Study
Area with those trends that would be
expected under the Series C and Series
E  OBERS  projections.  The  1975
population estimate for the entire Bay
Region is approximately 370,000 less
than the Series  C and  162,000 less
than Series E  interpolated estimates.
However, seven of the thirteen Study
Area subregions had 1975 populations
which  were greater  than  either the
Series C or Series E estimates. Much of
 Figure 10: Population and Economic Projections for Chesapeake Bay Region
           to 2020
                                       Per Capita Income
                                       (In Thousands)
                                                 I5.6
                                                                                                             13

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the  discrepancy  in  the  total  Bay
Region estimates  can be explained by
a  significant  overestimate  by  both,
Series C and  Series E  of  population
growth in the Washington, D.C. SMSA.
When population data for the Washing-
ton, D.C. SMSA is subtracted from the
Bay Region totals, the  remainder for
the Region falls between the Series C
and Series E estimates.

Based on the preceding analysis, it can
be  concluded that the applicability of
estimates of future resource demands
based on OBERS Series C  or Series E
baseline  projections  depends  on  the
subregion  of interest.   It   should be
       emphasized, however, that 1970-75
       trends may not be indicative of trends
       to   be   expected during  the entire
       1970-2020 projection period.


       SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

       The  most  fundamental  assumption
       made in  preparing the projections of
       future  demands  on  Chesapeake  Bay
       presented   in  the  Chesapeake  Bay
       Future  Conditions Report is that the
       Series C  OBERS baseline projections
       of  population, income, and manufac-
       turing activity accurately reflect future
       trends in the Chesapeake Bay Region.

                   TABLE 6
                              However,  in  order  to evaluate the
                              impact on the resource of the Series E
                              baseline  projections,  a  "Sensitivity
                              Analysis"  section  of each Appendix
                              dealing  with a  resource  use activity
                              was prepared. These  sections present
                              future  demands based on  Series  E
                              baseline projections which can be com-
                              pared to the Series C based projections
                              of future  demands.  In addition, the
                              sensitivity  of  future  demands  to
                              changes in other parameters critical to
                              the projection methodology was also
                              evaluated. The findings of these analy-
                              ses are summarized in this volume and
                              a more detailed  discussion is provided
                              in the appropriate appendices.
        SERIES C PROJECTIONS OF POPULATION, PER CAPITA INCOME, AND TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME BY
        5         rRUJf*-  CHESAPEAKE BAY SUBREGION (IN CONSTANT 1967 DOLLARS)
                                                     1980
  Baltimore, Md.

  Washington, D.C.

  Richmond, Va.

  Norfolk-Portsmouth,
  . Va.
  Wilmington, Del.
   SMSA

  STUDY AREA TOTAL
  ' All percentage changes are calculated from 1969.
Population
2,463.3
2,985.5
727.5
1,107.6
492.1
7,776.0
Per Capita
Income
J3.579
3,977
3,454
3,046
4,169
$3,682
Population
(% Increase)!
2,877.6
(16.8)
3.695.0
(23.76)
871.8
(19.8)
1.216.0
(9.B)
612.5
(24.7)
9,272.9
(19.3)
Per Capita
Income
(% Increase)
$4,912
(37.3)
5,653
(42.1)
4.828
(39.8)
4,331
(42.2)
5,804
(39.2)
$5,182
(40.7)
Population
(% Increase)
3,714.0
(50.8)
5,314.3
(78.0)
1,180.1
(62.2)
1,429.6
(29.1)
851.4
(73.0)
12,489.4
(60.6)
Pet Capita
Income
(% Increase)
$8,556
(139.0)
9,534
(139.7)
8.290 •
(140.0)
7,615
(150.0)
9,634
(131.0)
S8.913
(142.1)
Population
(% Increase)
4,596.3
(86.6)
7,397.2
(144.4)
1.555.0
(113.7)
1.656.4
(49.6)
1.115.7
(126.7)
16,320.6
(109.9)
Pet Capita
Income
(% Increase)
$14,769
(312.7)
15,612
(292.6)
14,184
(310.7)
13,186
(332.9)
16,142
(287.2)
$15,030
(308.2)
                                                     TABLE 7
               MANUFACTURING OUTPUT FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION (IN MILLIONS OF 1967 DOLLARS)
                            BY INDUSTRY, 1969 AND PROJECTED, BASED ON OBERS SERIES C
   Lumber and Wood Products
   Metals
   Machinery, Except Electrical
   Electrical Machinery
   Transportation Equipment
   Petroleum Refining
   Food and Kindred Products
   Textiles and Textile Products
   Printing and Publishing
   Chemicals
   Paper and Allied Products
   Other Manufacturing
   TOTAL
  1969
Output (1)

 154.8
 977.4
 233.0
 331.3
 815.1
  57.3
 747.4
 229.8
 445.2
1,856.4
 215.6
 719.3
6,782.6
             2000
Output       Percent Increase (2)      Output

  433.4             180.0              807.4
 2,279.9             133.3             4,095.0
  835.8             258.7             1,885.9
 1,595.5             381.6             4,092.6
 2,534.4             210.9             4,979.7
  165.4             188.6              301.2
 1,795.1             140.2             3,150.4
  657.4             186.0          .   1,230.3
 1,428.3             220.8             2,930.8
 6,989.8             276.5            15,298.5
  712.5             230.5             1,549.7
 2,207.7             206.9             4,614.2
21,635.2             219.0            44,935.7
  2020
Percent Increase (2)

     421.6
     319.0
     709.4
    1,135.3
     510.9
     425.6
     321.5
     435.4
     558.3
     724.1
     618.8
     541.5
     562.5
    (1) Output in the form of "gross product originating1
    (2) Percent change measured from base year (1969).
             1 which is defined as that portion of GNP originating in a specific industry.
 14

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                                    TABLE 8
         A COMPARISON OF OBERS SERIES C AND SERIES E PROJECTIONS
  Item

Growth of
Population
Military
Establishment
Hours Worked
Per Year
Product Per
Man-Hour
Earnings Per
Worker
Employed
Population
    Series C

Fertility rate of 2,800
children per 1,000 women
Projects a decline to 2.07
million people by 1975
and thereafter a constant.
Hours worked per em-
ployee per year are pro-
jected to decline at 0.25
percent per year.
Projected to increase
3.0 percent per year.
          Series E

 Gradual decline of fertility rate
 fr.om 2,800 to the "replacement
 fertility rate" of 2,100 children
 per 1,000 women.
 Projects a decline to 1.57 million
 persons by 1975 and thereafter
 a constant (due to smaller military
 establishment and the resultant
 smaller need for equipment and
 supplies a significantly slow rate
 of growth in the defense-related
 manufacturing industries is antici-
 pated).
 Hours  worked per employee per
 year are projected to decline at
 0.35 percent per year.

 Projected to increase 2.9 percent
. per year.
Earnings per worker in the individual industries at the national level
are projected to converge toward the combined rate for all industries
more slowly in the Series E projections than in the Series C projections.
Projected to increase
from 40 to 41 percent
of the total population.
 Projected to be between 43 and
 45 percent of the total population
 (higher percentages with the E
 Series reflects expected higher
 participation rates by women).
                                                           AGRICULTURE
                                                           LANDS 36%
                                                           URBAN LANDS 7%
                                                           WETLANDS 3%
                                                           FOREST LAND 54%
     Figure 11:  Major Land Use Types - Chesapeake Bay Region
LAND USE
The development of the land in the
Chesapeake  Bay Region began when
the  first  group  of Indians wandered
into the Area thousands of years ago
and established  a village. Since then,
virtually all of  the  vast expanse of
virgin forest which existed  at the time
and thousands of  acres of  wetlands
have  been  cut,  drained, or  filled by
more recent settlers. The original pur-
pose of this development was to pro-
vide land  for the  cultivation  of to-
bacco  and  wheat.  High  tobacco  and
                      wheat  prices  created   an  almost
                      insatiable  demand for land. As the
                      productivity of the soil decreased after
                      producing several years of crops, the
                      land was abandoned and new land was
                      cleared. The abandoned land returned
                      to woodlands.  During the Nineteenth
                      and Twentiest Centuries, factories, res-
                      idences,  port   facilities,  commercial
                      establishments,  and  other  physical
                      manifestations  of  an increasingly in-
                      dustrialized  society replaced many of
                      the  agricultural  lands  and second-
                      growth woodlands. The following sec-
                      tions present  a discussion  of existing
and  future land use and related prob-
lems, as well as some alternative means
of satisfying the identified needs.

EXISTING LAND USE

For  the  purposes  of  this  analysis,
existing land  use information for  the
Chesapeake Bay area was developed
using  remote  sensing  data  obtained
from high altitude aerial photography
taken   in  1970.  These  data  were
supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS)  and  are part of  the Central
Atlantic Regional Ecological  Test Site
(CARETS) project. Hates 4-1,4-2, and
4-3  in Appendix  4, "Water-Related
Land  Resources" show the type and
general distribution of the major land
use  activities in  the area  covered by
the  CARETS project (about  95 per-
cent of the "Bay Region"). Based on
the  CARETS data, estimates of land
use  in the  Chesapeake Bay Region
were developed. These are presented in
Figure 11.

   a. Urban  Land: About 43 percent
of the Bay Region  is considered to be
developed (i.e., urban plus agricultural
lands). Of the 43  percent  developed,
83  percent is in agricultural  uses and
only 17 percent is considered urban.
Urban  land  uses   are  concentrated
around the   principal  urban centers
located near the head  of  tide on  the
major tributaries of the Western Shore.
Many  smaller urban centers are found
scattered  throughout the Study Area,
some serving as small ports, retail and
wholesale  trade centers,  or  political
centers  such  as  State  capitals   or
county seats. Industrial, institutional,
and military  reservations (of which the
Bay  Region  has   many)   are  also
included  as   urban  lands. Industrial
activities  include  a variety   of  uses
ranging  from  those  involving  the
design, assembly, finishing, and  pack-
aging  of  light  products  to heavy
manufacturing activities such as steel,
pulp, or lumber milling, electric power
generating, oil refining, and  chemical
processing. Most frequently, industries
are found in or adjacent to urban areas
where  good  transportation  facilities
and ample manpower are available.

   b. Agricultural  Land:  Land used
for  the  production  of  farm  com-
modities comprises over one-third of
the  Chesapeake  Bay   Region's land
area. As such, it constitutes the second

                                  15

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largest land use type in the Study Area,
second only to forest lands. The major
physical  factors governing the use  of
land for  agricultural purposes include
rainfall, growing season, soil, drainage,
temperature,  evaporation,  and the
amount  of  sunshine.  Other  factors
such  as  proximity  to markets, tax
laws,  land tenure  arrangements, and
farming  practices also  influence the
intensity and type of agriculture. The
major  agricultural  areas  in  the Bay
Region are  located  on  the  Eastern
Shore of Maryland, Virginia and Dela-
ware,  in  the  rural portions  of the
Baltimore SMSA, in the northwestern
portion of the Washington SMSA, and
around Virginia Beach, Virginia.
   c.  Forestlands: Forestlands occupy
more area in the Bay Region than any
other land use type, approximately 54
percent. Since it was not possible to
distinguish between public and private
forestlands on the remote sensing data,
both are included  in Figure  11. The
Virginia portion of the  Study  Area
accounts for almost two-thirds of the
total forest  land. The Southern Mary-
land area also has a high proportion of
woodlands.

   d.  Wetlands:  The wetlands of the
Bay Region, although  accounting  for
only  3 percent of  the total land area,
are  of  crucial  importance   to  the
ecosystem of the Bay. Wetlands.con-
sist  of seasonally flooded basins and
flats, meadows, marshes, and bogs.

Each of the States in the Bay Area has
legally defined its wetlands. Maryland
defines its wetlands as all land under
the  navigable  waters  of  the State
below the  mean high tide  which is
affected by  the regular rise and fall of
the tide. Virginia wetlands are defined
as  all that land lying  between mean
low  water  and an elevation above
mean low water equal to the factor  1.5
times  the tide range. Delaware defines
its wetlands as those  lands above  the
mean  low water  elevation including
any bank, marsh, swamp, meadow, flat
 or other land subject to tidal action
 and including those areas connected to
 tidal  waters whose surface  is at  or
 below an elevation of two feet above
 local mean high tide.

 All of the counties of the Bay Region
 have  some  wetland areas of varying
 types and sizes, although it should be

 16
emphasized that not all wetland types
are equally valuable to the ecosystem.
The  ecological value of a  particular
wetland area depends on such factors
as the type of dominant plant, flushing
action in  the area  which affects the
availability of nutrients to the aquatic
community,  and the intensity of use
of the wetland as habitat. The major
concentration of wetland areas in the
Chesapeake Bay system is found along
the lower Eastern Shore.

   e.  Archaeological,   Historic,   and
Natural Areas of  Significance:  The
primary prehistoric  archaeological re-
sources within  the Study  Area  are
associated  with Indian artifacts.  The
numerous Indian tribes which inhab-
ited  what is now Maryland, Virginia,
and  Delaware left  much evidence  of
their  existence  in  the form  of  clay
pottery and stone artifacts. Thousands
of  archaeological  sites   have  been
recorded in  the  Region but  due to
monetary  and  manpower limitations,
it is believed that  only a fraction of
the archaeological resources  have been
discovered. Almost the entire shoreline
of  the Bay  and  its tributaries  are
thought to be potential archaeological
sites.  Plates  4-7,  4-8,  and  4-9  in
Appendix  4,  "Water-Related  Land
Resources,"  show   the  existing  and
potential  archaeological sites in  the
Chesapeake Bay Region.

The large number  of historic sites in
the Bay Region provides proof of the
Region's  historic significance and  its
fundamental role in the development
of the Nation. Many of the sites relate
to the earliest colonial settlements, the
winning of National independence, the
founding of  the  Union, the Civil War
struggle,  and  the  lives  of National
leaders.  Within  the  Study Area  are
found  such  historically   important
items as the U.S. Frigate Constellation,
the   nation's  oldest  warship;   the
Annapolis Historic  District, an early
colonial port and  capital of the  U.S.
during a short period in 1783-1784;
Stratford Hall, home of Robert E. Lee,
Commander    of  the   Confederate
Armies; Mt.  Vernon, home of the first
President of the  United States; numer-
ous  battlefield sites commemorating
some of the most important Civil War
and  Revolutionary  War  battles;  the
Jamestown National Historic Site, first
permanent  English colony  in North
America;  Williamsburg Historic  Dis-
trict,  capital of the Virginia  Colony
during much of the eighteenth century
and an important social and cultural
center of the  English colonies  during
that period; arid numerous historic and
commemorative  sites  in the Washing-
ton, D.C. area.  Appendix 4,  Attach-
ment  A,  lists nearly 800 properties
within the Bay Area included on the
National Register of Historic Places.
There  are certain other areas of  the
Bay  Region  which  are  of special
importance  for  their  ecological   or
natural significance.  Many of  these
have  been  identified,  and in  many
cases are being protected. Included in
these  types  of areas are:  especially
important  wetlands  or other  floral
habitats, faunal habitats (especially for
threatened or endangered species), and
naturally  scenic  areas. At present,
there are twenty properties  within the
Study  Area designated as National
refuges or related properties (such as
the  Patuxent  National Wildlife  Re-
search Center).  The  primary purpose
of these refuges is to protect wildlife
including  certain  endangered  and
threatened species. Biological research
is conducted  at a number of these
facilities  while  limited hunting  is
offered  at  some.  Within  the  Study
Area,  there are  also 68 State fish and
wildlife management  areas and related
properties including game farms, sanc-
tuaries,  and preserves. Plates  4-16,
4-17,  and 4-18  of Appendix 4 show
the Federal and State  conservation and
management areas in the Chesapeake
Bay Region.
 The Center for Natural Areas, Ecology
 Program, Smithsonian Institution, has
 also  shown  concern for  the  Bay's
 significant ecological and natural areas.
 In 1974, this group prepared a report
 entitled "Natural Areas  of the Chesa-
 peake Bay Region: Ecological Priori-
 ties," which  surveys  the endangered
 flora and fauna of the Bay Region and
 the  areas, of  significant  ecological
 importance.

 Maryland  and Virginia have  initiated
 programs  to  identify  and  designate
 certain rivers within their boundaries
 as scenic rivers. The Virginia Commis-
 sion of Outdoor Recreation was direc-
 ted by the General Assembly to study
 the  Commonwealth's rivers  for the

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purpose  of designating  those  which
should be protected to provide for the
enjoyment  of  present   and  future
generations. As a result of this survey,
the Commission recommended estab-
lishment of a state scenic river system
in  1970. Local and State land use
controls  are to be imposed along with
numerous other standards to guarantee
the protection of those  rivers desig-
nated as scenic. The Maryland Legisla-
ture also recognized that certain rivers
within the  State plus their adjacent
land areas possess outstanding scenic,
fish, wildlife, and other recreational
values.  The  State adopted  a  policy
which  protects  the  water quality of
those rivers and fulfills vital conserva-
tion purposes by promoting the wise
use of land resources within the scenic
river system. Use is limited to "horse-
back  riding,  natural  and  geological
interpretation,   scenic   appreciation,
and other programs through which the
general  public  can  appreciate  and
enjoy the value of these areas as scenic
and wild  rivers in a setting of natural
solitude." Table 4-28 of Appendix 4
lists the  designated scenic and poten-
tial scenic rivers of the Chesapeake
Bay Region.

FUTURE LAND USE

The expected future distribution of
land uses in the  Bay  Region  was
developed from  the  relevant county,
municipal, and regional comprehensive
land and  water use plans. Plates 44,
4-5, and 4-6  in Appendix  4 present
this information based on a consistent
land use classification system. Numeri-
cal estimates  of future  acreages  for
urban,  agricultural,  and  forest  lands
are presented in the following sections.

   a.  Urban: The  portion of-land  in
residential uses in the urban areas can
be  expected to increase at roughly the
same rate as population  growth if the
assumption  is made  that population
densities will remain at about the same
level over the projection  period. This
means  that the demand for residential
lands will increase by approximately
18  percent by 1980, 59 percent by the
year 2000, and about 107 percent by
2020.

As  discussed in Chapter II, manufac-
turing  output in the Chesapeake  Bay
Region  is projected  to increase at a
rate  of approximately  560  percent
between  1969  and 2020.  It  is not
valid, however,  to assume  that land
needed for industrial purposes will also
increase   by  this  percentage  since
output per worker and per unit of land
will  probably  increase   during  this
period.  If the  assumption is made that
the productivity of land increases  at
about the same rate as the produc-
tivity of  workers, about  3.0  percent
annually,  then  the land needed for
industrial  purposes can be expected  to
increase by  28 percent over the 1969
acreage  by 2000, and by 50 percent by
2020.

   b.  Agricultural: The projections  of
land in  crops  and miscellaneous farm
uses (woodland on farms is included  in
the "Forests" category) in the Chesa-
peake Bay Region were derived from
OBERS projections of these land use
categories by  State. Appendix 4 de-
scribes in greater  detail  the method-
ology used in determining projections
of  agricultural land use. The amount
of acreage in cropland and miscellane-
ous farmland  is projected to show a
steady decline during the projection
period as shown in Table 9.

   c.  Forests:  Projections of  private
commercial  forest lands were also
                disaggregated from OBERS projections
                by State. As indicated in Table 10, the
                projected acreage of private commer-
                cial forest land within the Study Area
                is expected to decline steadily over the
                projection period. It should be noted
                that   public  forest   lands  are  not
                included in  these figures.

                  d.  Wetlands:  Although no  projec-
                tions were prepared  of future wetland
                acreages, it  can be stated with a.high
                degree of confidence that the demand
                for  shoreline lands for such uses as
                marinas,  vacation  homes,  or  port
                facilities  will increase in  the future.
                However, more stringent Federal  and
                State  restrictions on the development
                or degradation of wetland areas along
                with  a  growing  awareness of  the
                ecological and  economic  importance
                of wetlands are likely to at least slow
                down  the  historic  rate  of wetlands
                destruction  in   the  Chesapeake  Bay
                Region. An Executive Order signed by
                President  Carter in  1977  sets more
                stringent guidelines  governing Federal
                activities in wetland areas.

                PROBLEMS AND CONFLICTS

                As shown in the previous section, the
                expected increases in the demand for
                residential  and  industrial land  in the
                                 TABLE 9
                 PROJECTED CROPLAND AND MISCELLANEOUS
               FARMLAND* FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
                          (THOUSANDS OF ACRES)
             State

          Delaware
          Maryland
          Virginia


  TOTAL CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
                  1980

                    544
                  1,614
                  1,481


                  3,639
          2000

            519
          1,493
          1,305


          3,317
  2020

    493
  1,362
  1,147


  3,002
  * Miscellaneous farmland includes pasture, range, lands occupied by buildings, roads,
  ditches, ponds, and wastelands.
                                 TABLE 10
                 PROJECTED ACRES OF PRIVATE COMMERCIAL
           FOREST LAND FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STUDY AREA
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia

   TOTAL:
   1980

  365,560
1,983,456
4,533,673

6,882,689
   2000

  355,940
1,935,296
4,222,717

6,513,953
                                                                      2020
  346,320
1,860,654
3,900,972

6,107,946
                                                                                                                17

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Chesapeake  Bay Region is  approxi-
mately offset  by decreases in agricul-
tural  and forest use (each projected
separately).  The locations  in which
these  land  use  changes will  occur,
however, has not been clearly defined.
The  conflict,  then, is  not  one  of
enough land for development, but it is
where  the development should  take
place. Often the best agricultural lands
or the most productive forests are also
desirable for urban development. With-
out "proper planning, other areas  of
special ecological, historical, or archae-
ological  significance will continue  to
be  destroyed in the wake of "urban
sprawl."

SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS

Comparison  of  future  land use  de-
mands computed using OBERS Series
C projections,  with those  computed
using Series  E,  yields no significant
differences except  in the demand  for
residential land. Residential  land  re-
quirements obtained through Series E
population  projections were  approxi-
mately  5 percent less than the Series C
based projections for  1980,  7 percent
less  for  2000,  and about 13 percent
less in 2020.  Due to a lack of data, it
was not  possible to develop Series E
based projections  of industrial land
demands.
MEANS TO SATISFY THE NEEDS

There are numerous measures available
to provide for the  orderly develop-
ment  and  proper  use of the  water-
related land  resources of the  Chesa-
peake  Bay  Region.  The  following
section presents a general discussion of
 these  measures.   A  more  thorough
 analysis is available in Appendix 4.

    a.  Local Land  Use Controls: Zon-
 ing of geographical areas can be used
 to guide future land use decisions so as
 to encourage those which complement
 each  other and preclude those which
 conflict. It has been used effectively to
 segregate  residential uses from com-
 mercial and industrial uses, for exam-
 ple,  as well as to preserve recreational
 areas,  parks,  conservation areas,  and
 natural resources  of special  signifi-
 cance, and to control the development
 of flood-prone areas.
Subdivision regulations can be used to
preserve open or agricultural lands by
restricting  land use  to  low-density,
multiple-acre uses.  Tax policies have
also  proven useful in controlling land
use development. Through preferential
tax treatment,  or public land acquisi-
tion  policies,  the  preservation  and
development  of  agricultural  lands,
open space  areas,  and  conservation
zones can be encouraged.

A few local governments  within the
Study Area  have  attempted to curb
development and thereby control land
use  within  their jurisdiction through
"sewer moratoriums." Such measures
prohibit the construction of new sewer
systems  or  the extension  of existing
systems.  Some of these same counties
and towns  have effectively  used the
provision of water  and sewer services
to  guide growth to areas that have
been planned  for development. Such
measures represent  a primary means
for a region to plan growth in accord
with its public service  and environ-
mental capabilities.

    b. State  Land  Use Controls: Al-
 though the final decisions for land use
 proceedings remain the discretion of
 the local authorities, the various States
 in the Study Area have recognized, to
 varying degrees, that local subdivisions
 often do  not have adequate juris-
 diction  or, if the  land  use  issue has
 more than  a  local  impact,  proper
 authority to provide desirable manage-
 ment of resources. The States have the
 legislative  authority to  intervene in
 such circumstances. The wetland laws
 of Maryland,  Virginia, and  Delaware
 are a good example of  this type of
 authority. These laws seek to preserve
 the  wetlands   and to prevent  their
 degradation  taking  ecological,  eco-
 nomic,  developmental,  recreational,
 and aesthetic values into account.

    c. Federal Land Use Controls: One
 of the  most  important  Federal land
 resource management programs is the
 National  Oceanic  and  Atmospheric
 Administration's  Coastal  Zone  Man-
 agement Program (CZMP). Through
 this program,  the Federal Government
 assists the  States in developing a plan
 for the  management of land and water
 areas  in   the coastal  zone.  State
 programs  seek to  achieve wise use of
 land and water resources of the coastal
 zone and must give full consideration
to ecological, cultural, historic, recrea-
tional, and esthetic  values as well  as
needs for economic development. The
Federal CZMP provides grants to the
coastal states and territories to support
two-thirds of the cost of developing a
state  program, four-fifths of the cost
of  administering  the  program, and
one-half of  the  cost  of acquiring,
developing,  and operating estuarine
sanctuaries  for research  and  educa-
tional purposes.

There are certain other Federal pro-
grams or items of  legislation which
either directly or indirectly address the
control of land use. Examples include
the National Environmental Policy Act
of  1970, the  Rivers and Harbors Act
of  1899  (which  makes it illegal  to
allow any refuse to be introduced into
a navigable  waterway),  and the  Water
Pollution Control Act Amendments of
1972.
Future Federal legislation may very
well be aimed at establishing a nation-
wide land  use planning  and policy
process. Since 1970, various land use
control bills have been introduced in
Congress but  none have, as yet, been
passed by both Houses. Although each
bill has been different from the others,
all  would have established some form
of  National land use policy. Each bill
has been quite controversial and has
met  with great public  opposition. If
this  opposition  is alleviated,  it is
possible that  some  form  of National
land use policy will be adopted.
 18

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         SECTION  II
                    Wafer
             Resource
  Problems  and
                    Needs
As  population,  industrial output, in-
comes, and leisure time in the Chesa-
peake  Bay  Region increase  in  the
future, the  demands  on  the Area's
water and related land resources will,
most  certainly,  also  increase.  The
following  sections  of  this chapter
present  a discussion of  the current
status and problems, as well as pro-
jected future demands, supplies, and
needs for the  following Chesapeake
Bay water and  related land resource
use categories.

   1. Water Supply

   2. Water Quality

   3. Outdoor Recreation

         WATER SUPPLY

CURRENT STATUS

The . vast quantities of  surface  and
ground  water available in the Chesa-
peake Bay  watershed  are  a primary
source of water supply for numerous
communities and industries. As shown
on Figure 12, more than 1,460 million
gallons  of water per day (mgd)  are
used by citites,  industries,  rural
areas,   and  farmers   in feeding
livestock  and  poultry   and   in
irrigating. Many millions of gallons
more water are used in generating
electrical power.

Of this 2,460 mgd, approximately 900
mgd is brackish water used in indus-
trial  processes, 122  mgd is  reused
municipal  wastewater,  and  the  re-
mainder is freshwater from ground and
surface sources.  Industrial and munic-
ipal systems accounted for over  96
percent of total water use.
MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY

Of  the  Bay Area's 7.9 million resi-
dents, approximately 6.5 million, or
82 percent, are served by public water
supply systems. These systems range in
size from those  serving as few as 20
persons in small developments  to large
municipal systems serving commercial,
institutional and  industrial  establish-
ments and millions of individuals.
Municipal water  uses  encompass  a
variety of needs which may be gene-
rally classified as domestic, commer-
cial,  industrial,   institutional,   and
public. Domestic uses include those of
the household, e.g., food preparation,
washing, lawn  watering, and sanita-
tion.  Uses  within  the  commercial
category include restaurants, hotels,
laundries, and car washes; while hos-
pitals and schools are classified as
institutional. Public uses include fire
protection, street cleaning, and water
use in government buildings and insti-
tutions.  Manufacturing  industries use
water  for processing,  boiler  feed,
cooling,  and  sanitary  purposes.  De-
pending on the  extent and composi-
tion of  a city's industrial component
and the tendency for local industry to
pay  for  and  use  public  water,  a
municipal system's industrial water use
component may  vary radically. There
are public water supply  systems in the
Bay  Area that supply no  water  to
industry  and  others that support  an
industrial component that may exceed
50 percent of the total use.
 Table 11 shows the population served
 and the average water use in each of
 the 49 WSA's in the Chesapeake Bay
 Area. Water  use  rates  vary  widely
 between the subregions,  ranging from
 about 100  gallons  per/capita per day
 (gpcd) to nearly  190 gpcd. For the
 entire Bay Region,  water use averaged
 139 gpcd in 1970.  The importance of
 the metropolitan areas is evidenced by
 the  fact  that  the Baltimore  and
 Washington  SMSA's  account  for 74
 percent  of  the  population and 77
 percent of the total water used among
 the  Region's  WSA's. More detailed
 data for each community is presented
 in Table 5-1 of Appendix 5.


 Use rates exceeding 150 gpcd occur in
 a number of cities: Cambridge, Cris-
 field, Salisbury,  Leonardtown, Sea-
 ford, Baltimore, Washington,  Hope-
 well, and Williamsburg. These high use
 rates  can be attributed to  several
 factors,  not  always  consistent  from
 system to system. For example, Hope-
 well's astonishing 689 gpcd  is due to
 an  estimated  22  mgd  supplied  to
 several  large  industries. Significant
 industrial uses also contribute to the
high rates at Cambridge, Salisbury, and
 Baltimore, while institutional, military
 demands  and  tourism contribute  to
 the higher than normal use at Williams-
burg, Virginia. The extensive govern-
ment activity and array of public
 facilities in Washington,  D.C.,  cause
use rates in the Washington area to be
                                                    MUNICIPAL
                                                    868 mgd  35.2%
                                                    RURAL DOMESTIC
                                                    63 mgd 2.5%

                                                    .LIVESTOCK & POULTRY
                                                    15 mgd 0.6%
                                                    IRRIGATION
                                                    22 mgd 0.9%

                                                    INDUSTRIAL
                                                    FRESH
                                                    603 mgd 24.4%

                                                    INDUSTRIAL BRACKISH
                                                    900 mgd 30.4%
   Figure 12: Average Water Use in the Chesapeake Bay Region by Type
                                                                                                            19

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among the highest in the Bay  Area.
Another  component  of water use  in
most  systems is leakage.  In Crisfield,
Maryland, for example, losses due  to
leakage constitute  an unusually  high
25 percent of the overall use. Most  of
the public systems have use rates that
would be  expected from an  average
amount  of residential use and mix of
other uses (approximately 80 to 150
gpcd).
 In addition to the Water Service Areas
 (i.e., those systems defined previously
 as  serving a  population  of 2,500 or
 greater),  a large number  of  smaller
 public systems exist  in the Bay Area.
 Slightly   less  than  one-half  million
 people  are   served  by  these small
 systems.   In   1970,  they  provided
 approximately  37 mgd  or about 4
 percent  of  the total  water  use by
 centrally-supplied  systems. A  large
 portion of this demand occurred in the
 suburban  counties adjacent to  areas
 served by the larger systems.

 INDUSTRIAL WATER USE

 Industrial  (i.e., manufacturing) water
 use  in 1970  was inventoried  by the
 Bureau of Domestic Commerce (BDC),
 U.S. Department of Commerce.  The
 results of this inventory are presented
 in  Table  12.  The  term  gross use (G)
 includes  all  water actually  used  in a
 particular process, including that quan-
 tity recirculated. Intake (I) represents
 the actual withdrawal from the water
   body plus purchases. The consumption
   category (C) includes all water lost to
   evaporation  and water  incorporated
   into final products. Discharge (D) is
   merely  the difference between intake
   and  consumption  (I-C).  The  final
   column lists  the percent of the gross
   use that is recycled water [(G-I)/G]. As
   shown  in Table  12, industries in  the
   Baltimore SMSA, the  Richmond and
   Petersburg SMSA's and the non-SMSA
   portion  of  the Norfolk-Portsmouth
   Economic Area (Subregion 22-3)  ac-
   count for approximately 86 percent of
   gross water use and about  82 percent
   of the total intake of water in the Bay
   Region. In addition, 99 percent of the
   total water intake of 1,615 mgd was
   used by   only  3  percent   of  the
   approximately   5,800  manufacturing
   establishments in the Bay Region.

   In  addition  to the concentration  of
   water use among  a relatively  small
   number of  plants, there is also a
   concentration  of water  use  within
   particular types  of industries. In  the
   Chesapeake Bay Region,  82 percent of
   the  gross water use is accounted for by
   three groups of industries: paper and
   allied  products,  chemicals and  allied
   products, and  primary  metals  (see
   Table 13).
    In many  industrial  processes, signi-
    ficant decreases in water supply with-
    drawals   could  be  realized  if  the
    recycling  of  wastewater was more
                                   TABLE 11
         MUNICIPAL WATER USE IN 1970 BY CHESAPEAKE BAY SUBREGION
               Subregion

  17-1  Baltimore, Md. SMSA
  17-2  Maryland Eastern Shore*
  17-3  Virginia Eastern Shore
  17-4  Delaware Non-SMSA**
  18-1  Washington, D.C. SMSA
  18-2  Southern Maryland
  18-3  Virginia Non-SMSA
  21-1  Richmond-Petersburg-
        Colonial Heights SMSA's
  21-2  Virginia Non-SMSA
  22-1  Newport News-Hampton SMSA
  22-2  Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
  22-3  Virginia Non-SMSA

             BAY REGION TOTAL
Population Served
 Average
Use, Mgd
 Per capita
Use, GPCD
   1,673,820         260.3         156
     73,270          13.8         188
          NO LARGE SYSTEMS
      5,540           0.8         153
   2,726,500         382.2         140
     22,500           2.2         97
     19,530           2.6         133
    501,690
      2,600
    263,260
    633,640
     37,210
   5,959,560
  74.6
   0.3
  27.3
  66.2
   4.6

 831.2
   149
   100
   104
   104
   123

   139
   * Includes Cecil County, Maryland.
  ** Includes Sussex County, Delaware, only.
widely  used.  The  tendency  of an
industry to recirculate water, however,
usually  depends  ultimately  on  eco-
nomics. Water will be  reused  in a
particular   situation if the  costs of
recovery and recirculation are less than
costs associated with the development
of  additional  sources.  In locations
where  water of acceptable quality is
scarce  or  where the cost  of treating
wastewater is  high, recirculation  may
be attractive. Conversely, in areas with
plentiful supplies of high quality water
or where  wastewater treatment costs
are low reuse is usually uneconomical.
A measure of the  degree  to  which
recirculation technology  is utilized in
each subregion is  shown in the  final
column of Table  12, and for  each
major type of industry in Table 13. In
the  Bay  Region  the  best recycling
efficiency occurs in the paper industry
in which  88.7 percent  of the gross
water used is recycled. In other  words,
nearly nine times as much water would
be  needed  from the  river,  or other
source,  if recirculation was not prac-
ticed—645 vs.  73 mgd. The petroleum
industry recycles least, primarily due
to  the  once-through use of brackish
water for cooling.  However, National
figures  for the  petroleum  industry
indicate  recirculation  rates  at  least
10-fold that in Chesapeake Bay.


The importance of brackish water in
the Chesapeake Bay Area as a  source
of industrial water  supply is evident
from the information in Table 14. The
total quantity of brackish water used
was 899  mgd or  56  percent  of all
withdrawals  by  Bay  Region  manu-
facturers  in 1970. Approximately 37
percent of industrial withdrawals was
freshwater  from  ground  or  surface
sources and the remainder was reused
municipal wastewater.

RURAL DOMESTIC

 Rural   domestic   water  supplies are
 required to serve the needs of persons
 that live in rural locations and that are
 not served by  central  water  supply
 systems.  Of  the  almost  1.4  million
 who lived in rural areas in 1970, about
 7  percent resided  on  farms.  The
 non-farm  component  of the popula-
 tion includes  persons that reside in the
 suburbs  of the  major metropolitan
 areas such as Baltimore, Washington,
 D.C., and Richmond.  In fact, perhaps
 20

-------
surprisingly,  the two major areas in
terms of rural  domestic water use are,
the   Baltimore   and   Washington
SMSA's, comprising 40 percent of the
total rural domestic use in 1970.
The total water use for rural domestic
purposes  amounted to  approximately
63.1 mgd in 1970. This has been rising
rapidly since 1950 due to an increasing
percentage of homes being served by
in-house plumbing and  running water.
Homes with  running water character-
istically use 5  to 6 times the amount
used  in  a home without  these same
conveniences. In 1970, approximately
80  percent  of  the  rural domestic
population resided in homes equipped
with running water and these  persons
consumed  about 95 percent  of the
total rural domestic supply. The rural
  domestic water demand comprises less
  than 3 percent of all water use in the
  Chesapeake Bay Region.

  LIVESTOCK AND POULTR Y

  Water supply for livestock and poultry
  is required for two purposes—one, to
  sustain the resident farm  animals and
  two, to produce livestock  and poultry
  products for  the  market place. The
  livestock  category includes  animals
  such as beef cattle, dairy cows, sheep,
  hogs,  and horses.
  chickens  that  are
  market  or   egg
  turkeys.
  In the Chesapeake Bay Region, live-
  stock and poultry water consumption
  amounted to 14.7 mgd in 1967, or less
  than  1  percent of all uses  Bay-wide.
      Poultry  includes
     raised  either  for
     production,  and
            Easily the largest component of live-
            stock and poultry water use was cattle
            and  milk  cows,  which,  despite  an
            overall  decline  in  the  number  of
            animals during the previous 20  years,
            used 55 percent  of all  water used by
            poultry and livestock in 1969. During
            this  same period  water consumption
            per animal has more than doubled due
            to the increased  stringency of sanita-
            tion codes and increased milk produc-
            tion per milk cow.

            Water  use  has  increased  in  other
            categories as  well. Broiler chickens,
            which have increased in numbers since
            1950 by  160  percent,  utilized 28
            percent of the poultry and livestock
            water supply  in 1969.  Hogs and pigs
            accounted for an additional 9 percent.
            Declines   since  1950  in   absolute
            numbers  as  well  as  water use  have
                 Subiegion

   17-1  Baltimore, Md. SMSA
   17-2  Maryland Eastern Shore
   17-3  Virginia Eastern Shore
   17-4  Delaware Non-SMSA
   18-1  Washington, D.C. SMSA
   18-2  Southern Maryland
   18-3  Virginia Non-SMSA
   21-1  Richmond-Petersburg-
          Colonial Heights SMSA's
   21-2  Virginia Non-SMSA
   22-1  Newport News-Hampton SMSA
   22-2  Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
   22-3  Virginia Non-SMSA

              TOTAL BAY REGION:
                                                           TABLE 12
                                       INDUSTRIAL WATER USE IN THE CHESAPEAKE
                                                  BAY REGION, 1970, mgd
Gross Use (G)

   1,226.1
     35.5
      2.6
     82.7
      5.4
      0.8
     32.9

    400.5
     52.4
    114.9
     32.3
    621.8
Intake (I)

 990.7
  34.8
   2.3
  65.6
   4.7
   0.8
  27.4

 286.8
  26.5
 100.2
  25.3
  50.4
Consumption (C)

     43.7
      0.9
      0.2
      1.9
      0.2
      0.1
      1.8

     14.0
      5.0
      0.7
      1.3
      4.8
   2,607.9
1,615.5
      74.6
Discharge (D)

   947.0
    33.9
     2.1
    63;7
     4.5
     0.7
    25.6

   272.8
    21.5
    99.5
    24.0
    45.6

 1,540.9
 Percent
Recycled*

   19.2
    1.9
   11.5
   20.7
   13.0
    0.0
   16.7

   28.4
   49.4
   12.8
   21.7
   91.9
   38.1
   "Calculated by
                G-I
                                                     TABLE 13
                              WATER USE IN MANUFACTURING, BY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR,
                                         CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION, mgd, 1970
              Sector

      Food & Kindred Products

      Paper & Allied Products

      Chemicals

      Petroleum

      Primary Metals

      Other Manufacturing

                 TOTAL
Gross Use

   79.7

  644.8

  402.5

   81.6

1,094.6

  304.7

2,607.9
 Intake
 Consumption

       5.6

       7.6

      14.5

       0.7

      35.1

      11.1
                   74.6
 Discharge

      68.7

      65.2

     313.6

      75.6

     879.2

     165.0

   1,535.3
  Percent
 Recycled

    6.8

   88.7

   18.5

    6.5

   19.4

   40.0

   38.1
                                                                                                                  21

-------
occurred only for sheep and horses.

Most  of the  livestock  and poultry
water  use  is  concentrated  on  the
Delmarva Peninsula and in portions of
the   Baltimore  and   Washington
SMSA's.  Poultry water  use predomi-
nates  on the  Eastern  Shore,  while
dairy  cow  production is a  significant
source of water demand around the
SMSA's.  In the  southern  Virginia
portion of the Study Area, hogs and
pigs are  an important source of water
demand  in  the  livestock and poultry
water use category.

IRRIGATION

The amount of water used for irriga-
tion purposes varies greatly from year
to year, depending on  climatological
conditions  and crop patterns. Because
of the  generally  moderate levels of
precipitation (i.e., about  40 inches per
year), the demand for irrigated land in
the Study Area is not nearly as great as
in the  Southwestern or Great Plains
areas  of the United  States. In 1969,
irrigation water use  amounted  to 8
billion gallons  in  the Study Area, an
increase  of 18 percent over the 1964
figure. Only about 2.0 percent of the
total  land  in crops in the Chesapeake
Bay Region was irrigated in 1969. The
use of water for irrigation  purposes is
concentrated  on the Delmarva Penin-
sula.  This  area  accounts for about 79
percent  of the total irrigated water use
in the Chesapeake Bay Region.

The major irrigated crops,  in terms of
acreages, were field  corn (6 percent),
other field crops (30 percent), vege-
tables (52  percent), and nursery  and
other crops (8 percent). According to
the  Soil Conservation  Service (SCS),
U.S. Department of Agriculture, over
two million acres of farm land in the
Study  Area  are  potentially  irrigable
although about  two-thirds would re-
quire additional  treatment measures
such as land leveling or drainage.


EXISTING PROBLEMS AND
CONFLICTS

Provision of water for the  people,
industries,  and  farms of the Bay Area
is not accomplished without the water
supplier encountering  certain prob-
lems. Growing affluence and economic
development with the accompanying
increased demands  for water  have
required municipal water  authorities
to expand  treatment and distribution
facilities  and  to  search   for  new
sources.  In some urban areas that are
located  on  or  near  the  tidewater
portions of the Bay, such as Baltimore,
Newport  News, Norfolk,  and Ports-
mouth, nearby sources of freshwater
have long  since  been  developed. In-
creased competition for new sources at
longer distances from  the  urban  cen-
ters is  thus occurring  and the  eco-
nomic,  institutional, and engineering
problems associated with these large-
scale projects   are  substantial.  For
example, Norfolk obtains a portion of
its  present  supply from  a source
located  50  miles from  the  urban
center.
                             Seasonal   variations   in   flow,  and
                             longer-term cyclical trends in climate
                             and hydrology, can cause problems for
                             systems dependent for their supply on
                             surface water.  In addition, the periods
                             .of highest demand  for  water  often
                             coincide  with  the lowest  river flows,
                             thus complicating the situation fur-
                             ther.  This is  exemplified in Wash-
                             ington, D.C.,  where  supplies are  ob-
                             tained  primarily  from the  Potomac
                             River. The low flow  of record, which
                             occurred   in   1966,  would  not  be
                             sufficient  to meet today's maximum
                             demands.
                             Degradation  of   sources  is another
                             major problem facing water users  in
                             the Chesapeake Bay  Region. Surface
                             waters,   both  reservoirs  and  free-
                             flowing  streams,  are especially sus-
                             ceptible to pollution from municipal
                             and  industrial waste discharges,  agri-
                             cultural activity,  and other upstream
                             sources. Water users  that depend on
                             groundwater as a  source of supply are
                             also  susceptible  to  contamination.
                             Seepage   from septic systems  and
                             landfills are notable  sources of pollu-
                             tion  in   groundwater  supplies, and
                             saltwater intrusion is  another problem
                             affecting some areas  around the Bay.

                             Conflicts  also arise  in  attempts  to
                             develop  new  water  supply  sources.
                             On-stream reservoirs  and pumped stor-
                             age reservoirs  are  solutions to require-
                             ments  for surface water development,
                             but increased competition for land and
                             other economic,  social,  institutional,
                             technical, and environmental problems
                             must also be  considered in the plan-
                                                     TABLE 14
                                 INDUSTRIAL WATER WITHDRAWALS, BY SOURCE, MGD
                                           CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION, 1970

17-1
17-2
17-3
17-4
18-1
18-2
18-3
21-1

21-2
22-1
22-2
22-3
Subregion
Baltimore, SMSA
Maryland Eastern Shore
Virginia Eastern Shore
Non-SMSA, Delaware
Washington SMSA
Southern Maryland
Non-SMSA, Virginia
Richmond-Petersburg-
Colonial Heights SMSA
Non-SMSA, Virginia
Newport News-Hampton SMSA
Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
Non-SMSA, Virginia
Public
70.0
3.0
0.3
2.7
3.3
0.1
0.2

22.3
0.2
4.6
5.6
0.6
Self-Supplied
Ground
14.4
30.0
1.9
14.9
0.1
0.7
0.1

0.3
16.0
5.0
3.8
44.9
Surface
2.9
1.1
0.0
48.0
1.3
0.0
27.1

264.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
4.8
Brackish
781.2
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
.0.0
0.0

0.0
10.3
90.6
15.9
0.0
Other
122.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total
990.7
34.8
2.3
65.6
4.7
0.8
27.4

286.8
26.6
100.2
25.3
50.3
Total
Fresh
87.3
34.1
2.2
65.6
4.7
0.8
27.4

286.8
16.3
9.6
9.4
50.3
Percent
Fresh
7.8
97.9
95.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
61.3
9.6
37.1
100.0
               TOTAL BAY AREA
112.7
132.1
349.5
898.8
122.2    1,615.5   594.5
                                                                                                          36.8
 22

-------
ning effort. Also, there is concern  at
several  levels  of  society  regarding
proposals  for large  scale water diver-
sions  to serve  the  major water-short
areas.  Diversion of water from  one
watershed  to  another  causes  direct
reduction  of  streamflow   by  the
amount withdrawn, and may generate
problems  in  the  depleted  reaches  of
the river.  The  ecological value of a
waterway,  for example, may be jeop-
ardized by flow reduction, especially
during periods of unusually low flows.
States  rights to river  flows  and the
rights of individuals to flows that are
undiminished in terms of quality and
quantity  (under  the  Doctrine   of
Riparian Rights) are other difficulties
that complicate any type of large-scale
water supply development.
FUTURE
DEMANDS
MUNICIPAL
 The following sections present projec-
 tions of average daily water use to the
 year  2020 for central water systems,
 self-supplied  industries, rural domestic
 populations,  livestock  and poultry,
 and irrigation.

 Demands for water supplied through
 central systems has been projected to
 increase by approximately 170 percent
 Bay-wide by 2020 (see  Table  15).
 Included  in the  tabulation  are  all
 central public  systems,  whether  large
 or small,  and the sum of demands for
 all uses, including domestic, industrial,
 commercial,  and public.  Projections
were  based on expected future per
capita  use  rates and  estimates of
population served. A complete presen-
tation of all demands on public water
systems  is  presented  in Appendix  5,
along   with   all   assumptions   and
methodology   used  to  make  the
projections.

As shown in Table 15,  the Baltimore
and Washington SMSA's are expected
to continue to account for the largest
share-  of the  demand  for centrally
supplied water comprising 75  percent
of the total demand in both 2000 and
2020.  While the Washington SMSA is
expected to  experience  the largest
absolute increase  in  demand  (nearly
800 mgd between 1970 and 2020), the
water  use in the  Southern  Maryland
area is projected to increase about 700
percent, the largest percentage increase
in the Bay Area. Demand is projected
to  at  least   double  in  all  of the
subregions by the year 2020. Demands
in the  Bay  Area as  a  whole are
expected to increase  about  166  per-
cent.
                      INDUSTRIAL WATER USE

                      A  major consideration in the projec-
                      tion  of  industrial  water supply de-
                      mands is the impact that Federal water
                      quality  goals will have on  industrial
                      water use habits.  The 1972 Amend-
                      ments to the Federal Water Pollution
                      Control  Act (P.L.  92-500),  require
                      application of "best practicable" treat-
                      ment technology  by  1978, and  of
      "best available" technology by 1983
      (without further defining the quoted
      terms). In addition, the Act advocates
      that  a  goal of "zero  discharge" of
      pollutants  be  sought.  As  industries
      begin to comply with  this directive,
      and higher levels of waste treatment are
      achieved, the recycling  of wastewater
       will probably become more economic-
       ally  competitive   and  consequently
       more attractive.

       Thus, projections of recycling rates for
       the major water using industries in the
       Bay Area constituted a major  task in
       the projection process. Recycling rates
       were derived  for  three cases which
       reflect  various  levels   of  technology
       implementation:

         a) advanced technology-attainment
       of maximum  theoretically possible
       recycling rates by the year 2000,

         b)  constant   technology-
       maintenance of the rate of recycling at
       1970 levels for all industries,

         c) moderate  technology—increase
       in recycling rates at levels intermediate
       to  either  a) or b)  above, based on  a
       straight line continuation of  projec-
       tions through 1980.
       Industrial  water use   projections  as
       determined  under the  assumptions of
       moderate technology [case (c) above]
       are  shown  in  Table  16.  Figure 14
       shows the percent  changes that occur
       over  the  study period in  the gross
       water demand, intake, consumption,
       discharge, and  recycling rate. Rapidly
       increasing recycling ratios,  which in-
      17-1     Baltimore, Md. SMSA,
      17-2     Maryland Eastern Shore
      17-3     Virginia Eastern Shore
      17-4     Delaware Non-SMSA
      18-1     Washington, D.C. SMSA
      18-2     Southern Maryland
      18-3     Virginia Non-SMSA
      21-1     Richmond-Petersburg-
                Colonial Heights SMSA's
      21-2     Virginia Non-SMSA
      22-1     Newport News-Hampton SMSA
      22-2     Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
      22-3     Virginia Non-SMSA

                      TOTAL
                                                        TABLE 15
                                           PROJECTED WATER SUPPLY DEMAND
                                               ON CENTRAL SYSTEMS (MGD)
                                                CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
                             1970

                             268.4
                              18.6
                               0.8
                               1.9
                             390.1
                               4.2
                               3.7

                              79.8
                               2.8
                              27.8
                              66.9
                            	6.8

                             871.8
                      1980

                      326.1
                       23.8
                        1.0
                        2.8
                      497.5
                        6.7
                        5.1

                       95.2
                        4.0
                       37.5
                       80.7
                       10.7

                     1,091.1
                                                                          2000
1,591.0
 2020

 561.0
  50.2
   2.2
   8.4
1,175.4
  33.7
  16.8

 222.5
  10.4
  68.5
 147.3
  26.6

2,323.0
 % Increase
   Over
Study Period

   109
   170
   175
   342
   201
   702
   354

   179
   271
   146
   120
   291

   166
                                                                                                               23

-------
                         (Percent Increase Over 1970)
      11980
                                    ooo
Figure 14: Projected Increase in Manufacturing Water Use, Chesapeake Bay Region
 crease  from 1.61 in 1970 to 9.48 (a
 489  percent increase) by 2020 cause
 the 13 percent reduction in intake by
 2000. By the year 2020, however, due
 to the reduced influence of increases
 in recirculation rates, intakes show a
 net 13 percent increase over the study
 period.

Also  of interest  on Table  16  and
Figure 14 are expected trends in indus-
trial water consumption and industrial
discharges.  Industrial water  consump-
tion (water lost from the  process or
incorporated into  end products),  for
example, is shown to increase approxi-
mately  580 mgd, or about 775 percent
between 1970 and 2020. This is due to
the increase in recycling and the over-
all increase in manufacturing produc-
tion. Increased consumption is also at
least partially  due  to  the expected
increase in  evaporative  losses accom-
panying recirculation of water used for
cooling purposes. Finally, discharges
of industrial wastes  are  shown  to
actually decrease by approximately 24
percent over the projection period due
to the increases in consumption  and
recycling rates. A full and complete
presentation of the methodology used
and the resultant projections of water
requirements by industry is provided
in Appendix 5.

RURAL DOMESTIC WATER USE

Total rural domestic water use for the
Chesapeake Bay Region is presented in
Table  17.  A  moderate increase of
about  67  percent (40  mgd) is  fore-
casted over the 50-year study period.
The relative insignificance of this fig-
ure is  evident in comparison with the
1,450  mgd increase  in the  amount
expected  to be supplied by  central
systems.

Increases in water use are expected in
all  subregions except  Southern Mary-
land   and   the  Newport  News -
Hampton SMSA. This reflects the facts
                                  TABLE 16
                       PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL WATER USE
                         CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION, (mgd)


Year
1970
1975
1980
1990
2000
2020
Gioss
Water
Demand
2,607.9
3,512.5
4,408.2
6,001.6
8,591.5
17,290.2


Intake
1,615.5
1,823.9
1,581.4
1,344.1
1,397.8
1,822.9


Consumption
74.6
112.5
157.5
246.4
341.3
652.4


Discharge
1,541.3
1,711.4
1,423.9
1,097.7
1,056.5
1,170.5

Recycling
Rate
1.61
1.93
2.79
4.47
6.15
9.48
that total farm  population  in  the
Study  Area  is projected to  decline
from  a 1970 level  of approximately
92,800  to 34,800 in 2020  and that
future domestic non-farm water use is
expected  to  be dampened somewhat
by  a conversion of  many rural non-
farm users to central water systems.
Non-farm water use is expected to be
by  far  the largest component of total
rural domestic water use in the future
accounting for 97 percent of the total
by the year 2020.

LIVESTOCK AND POULTR Y

As  shown in Table  18,  future water
use for  livestock and poultry is  ex-
pected   to  decline.  The  Baltimore
SMSA is the only subregion which is
expected to  experience  a significant
increase  in livestock  and poultry use
during the projection period.  Trie in-
creases in the Baltimore  area  are due
to significant projected increases in the
number  of niilk  cows and water use
per animal. Broilers are  expected to
continue  to  dominate water use in
poultry  production on  the  Eastern
Shore  with slight increases  projected
for both numbers of broilers and water
use. These increases, however,  were
not enough to offset the  projected 19
percent   decrease   in  livestock  and
poultry  water use in the  Bay Region
by 2020.


 IRRIGATION

 As shown in Table 19, the demand for
 irrigation water is expected to increase
 dramatically in future years, by about
 250 percent between 1980 and 2020.
 It  should be noted that the values
 shown for 1980, 2000,  and 2020 are
 the volumes of water needed during a
 dry year, while  the figures for  1969
 are the actual application rates during
 that year. Slightly over one-half of the
 irrigation need in 2020  occurs on the
 Eastern Shore of Maryland.

 A major portion  of the increase in
 total  irrigation demand  in  the Study
 Area over the projection period is due
 to increases  in the corn acreage and
 the proportion  of corn acreage irri-
 gated. This  is especially true on the
 Eastern  Shore  of  Maryland  where
 water used  for corn irrigation • is ex-
 pected  to account  for approximately
 one-third of the  entire Study  Area

-------
                                                        TABLE 17
                                          PROJECTED RURAL DOMESTIC WATER USE
                                               CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION, mgd
              Subregion

   17-1  Baltimore, Md. SMSA
   17-2  Maryland Eastern Shore
   17-3  Virginia Eastern Shore
   17^t  Delaware Non-SMSA
   18-1  Washington, B.C. SMSA
   18-2  Southern Maryland
   18-3  Virginia Non-SMSA
   21-1  Richmond-Petersburg-
          Colonial Heights SMSA's
   21-2  Virginia Non-SMSA
   22-1  Newport News-Hampton SMSA
   22-2  Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
   22-3  Virginia Non-SMSA
    1970

    15.6
     8.8
     1.5
     3.6
    10.6
     4.3
     2.0

     4.9
     2.9
     1.2
     0.6
     3.9
         TOTAL CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION:   59.9
1980

17.8
11.9
 3.0
 6.0
10.1
 5.8
 3.4

 7.9
 4.6
 1.1
 3.3
 7.7

82.6
2000

15.8
15.9
 3.7
 7.8
12.5
 5.1
 4.0

 9.1
 5.8
 0.5
 2.9
 8.8

91.9
 2020

 18.4
 20.5
  4.1
  8.8
 13.9
  3.9
  2.4

  9.9
  6.5
  0.6
  2.5
  8.7

100.2
 Percent Change
    During
Protection Period

      18
     133
     173
     144
      31
      -9
      20

     102
     124
     -50
     317
     123

      67
 irrigation  water  demands  in  2020.
 Vegetables,  soybeans,  tobacco, pea-
 nuts,  silage,  vegetables,  and nursery
 crops are also  expected  to exert  in-
 creasing • demands for irrigation water
 in the Bay Region.


 SUPPLY ANALYSIS
 Results of the region-wide water sup-
 ply analysis are presented in Table 21.
 Measures  of the available freshwater
 supply presented in the table are the
 combination  of   supply   from   all
 sources, including:

   •  groundwater  — estimate of ulti-
      mate developable yield;

   •  surface water —  7-day, 10-year
      drought flows at point of depar-
      ture from subregion; and,

   •  impoundments —  safe yield of
      existing  reservoir  development.

 Significant   regional   shortages   are
 shown  for • the   Washington,   D.C.
 Metropolitan Area  and  the  three sub-
 regions comprising Southeastern, Vir-
 ginia.
SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS

The foregoing projections of  future
water  supply  demands are based on
certain assumptions that were required
to transform  and simplify the many
uncertainties of the future. Four areas
of  critical  concern  with regard to
                                 TABLE 18
              PROJECTED LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY WATER USE
                      CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION, (mgd)
          Subregion
                 1969
                1980
               2000
17-1
17-2
17-3
17-4
18-1
18-2
18-3
21-1

21-2
22-1
22-2
22-3
Baltimore, Md. SMSA
Maryland Eastern Shore
Virginia Eastern Shore
Delaware Non-SMSA
Washington, D.C. SMSA
Southern Maryland
Virginia Non-SMSA
Richmond-Petersburg-
Colonial Heights SMSA's
Virginia Non-SMSA
Newport News-Hampton SMSA
Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
Virginia Non-SMSA
2.6
4.2
0.2
2.6
1.6
0.3
0.3

0.8
0.6
negligible
0.2
1.2
          TOTAL
                                   14.7
                              11.8
                           11.5
                                 TABLE 19
              PROJECTED DRY-YEAR IRRIGATION WATER USE,
                      CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION*, mgd
          Subregion
                 1969**
                1980
                                                          2000
17-1
17-2
17-3
\1A
18-1
18-2
18-3
21-1

21-2
22-1
22-2
22-3

Baltimore, Md. SMSA
Maryland Eastern Shore
Virginia Eastern Shore
Delaware Non-SMSA
Washington, D.C. SMSA
Southern Maryland
Virginia Non-SMSA
Richmond-Petersburg-
Colonial Heights SMSA's
Virginia Non-SMSA
Newport News-Hampton SMSA
Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
Virginia Non-SMSA

2.9
32.5
15.9
12.2
3.1
3.7
negligible

1.8
0.5
0.2
4.4
2.5
79.7
                                                387.4
                                         793.9
 * Assuming a 90-day growing season.
** Actual observed use.
                                                   2020
2.6
4.2
0.2
2.6
1.6
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.6
negligible
0.2
1.2
2.9
2.7
0.1
1.5
1,5
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.1
0,3
0.9
3.2
2.6
0.1
1.3
1.1
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0,1
0.2
1.0
3.8
2.6
0.1
1.3
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.2
1.3
                         11.9
                                                   2020
2.9
32.5
15.9
12.2
3.1
3.7
negligible
1.8
0.5
0.2
4.4
2.5
38.2
94.0
66.6
96.9
21.6
14.4
0.8
21.6
13.2
0.3
9.3
10.5
42.9
232.2
49.6
111.3
72.2
80.6
1.6
62.5
41.6
0.4
8.4
90.6
47.9
722.2
39.1
136.8
103.1
112.7
2.1
70.7
44.1
0.9
9.1
68.7
                                    1,357.4
                                                                                                                25

-------
water supply were  determined to be
population growth, recycling in indus-
trial water  use,  improved  irrigation
efficiencies,  and  political  decisions
which  might require increased agricul-
tural production.

One of the major shifts in the demo-
graphic profile of the United States in
recent years has been the declining
birth rate and the resulting decrease in
population growth rates. The effect of
reduced population levels would most
likely be a reduction in the demand in
all major water use categories assuming
all other factors remain constant.

Future water needs for use in manu-
facturing may be influenced  by even
greater improvements in water reuse
and recycling than have been antici-
pated in this report.

A third  area of  possible impact  on
water demands includes future climate
changes and irrigation efficiencies. Irri-
gation  needs  have  been  projected
assuming  drought  conditions,   and
under conditions of more normal rain-
 fall, irrigation  demands can  be ex-
pected  to  be  considerably reduced.
Projections  of  irrigation  needs  also
 assume  that only  65 percent of the
 water applied is used by the plants, the
balance being lost to drainage or evap-
 oration. It is estimated that an increase
in irrigation efficiency to 80 percent (a
 probable maximum) would result in a
 19 percent reduction in demand.
  A final consideration  with regard to
  future  agricultural  water demands  is
 the prospect of large scale exports of
 American agricultural products. If the
 United  States  becomes committed to .
 exports  of its food  products to  help
 alleviate a world shortage, agricultural
 production may increase in the Bay
 Area, resulting in greater demands for
 water.

 MEANS TO SATISFY
 THE NEEDS

 There  are  many  potential  measures
 available which could be used in meet-
 ing  the  future  water  supply needs.
  Some  of the more  promising are free
  flowing   streams,    impoundments,
 groundwater,  desalinization, and  cur-
 tailed use of water. These measures are
                                TABLE 20
            PROJECTED WATER SERVICE AREA SUPPLY DEFICITS
                         CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
       Water Service Area
Maryland

   Aberdeen
   Annapolis
   Baltimore
   Bel Air
   Cambridge
   Centreville
   Chestertown
   Crisfield
   Crofton
   Delmar
   Denton
   Easton
   Edgewood (Ferryman)
   Elkton
   Havre de Grace
   Joppatowne
   King's Heights (Odenton)
   Leonardtown
   Lexington Park
   Maryland City
   Pocomoke City
   Princess Anne
   Salisbury
   Severna Park (Severndale)
   Snow Hill
   Sykesville-Freedom
   Westminster
   Waldorf

Washington Metropolitan Area

   Washington Suburban
      Sanitary Commission
   Washington Aqueduct
   Alexandria, Va.
   Fairfax County
      Water Authority
   Goose Creek (Fairfax City), Va.
   Manassas, Va.
   Manassas Park, Va.

Delaware

   Seaford

Virginia

   Ashland
   Colonial Heights-Petersburg
   Fredericksburg
   Hopewell
   Mechanicsville
   Newport News
   Norfolk
   Portsmouth (incl. Suffolk)
   Richmond
   Smithfield
   West  Point
   Williamsburg
          Deficits in the
      Existing Source of Water
1980
4.1
1.5
0.0
1.1
0:9
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
0.0
0.7
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.0
25.5
6.8
0.0
0.2
2000
10.8
2.6
0.0
2.8
1.8
0.0
0.6
0.6
1.2
0.0
0.1
1.4
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.7
0.0
3.9
2.9
0.1
0.1
• 0.6
5.0
0.2
0.1
1.0
4.0
23.0
4.7
132.0
27.6
2.0
1.8
2020
20.6
3.2
72.0
4.4
3.2
0.2
1.0
0.8
1.3
0.0
0.2
3.0
9.3
0.0
0.0
0.5
2.3
0.0
10.0
4.8
0.5
0.4
2.0
9.3
0.6
1.0
1.8
10.4
329.0
11.9
308.0
63.1
3.4
4.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.6
1.0
4.2
1.0
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
 0.3
 0.0
 0.0
 0.0
15.3
 4.3
 0.0
26.4
15.0
 0.0
 0.3
 0.0
 4.7
                             1.3
 0.0
 0.0
 0.0
35.6
11.0
21.0
57.0
29.2
 0.0
 0.9
 0.0
 7.0
  26

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more fully discussed in the following
paragraphs.
NATURAL STREAM FLOW

Rivers  such  as  the  Susquehanna,
Potomac, Rappahannock, James, and
Appomattox presently serve as major
sources of water supply  for the large
urban   and industrial areas  located
along their banks. It is expected that
the use of these sources will continue,
and  indeed, that the withdrawals will
be much  expanded. The  Susquehanna
River,   in  particular,  will  experience
increased  demands both upstream and
for possible diversion to the Baltimore
area. Other interbasin diversions and
the  use of the  upstream portions of
the  major subestuaries (e.g., the Poto-
mac River) are also alternatives to be
considered in meeting future demands.
IMPOUNDMENTS

A major problem in the use of natural
stream  flows as a  source of water
supply  is  the seasonal  variation  in
flow. Peak  demands  often coincide
with the season of lowest flow in the
streams. Dam construction is a means
by which reduction of variability can
be attained,  and  the dependable  flow
or safe yield  of a watershed increased.
Water is stored in the reservoir during
periods of excess flow for use during
seasonal periods of low flow and high
domestic  demands.   Over  the  long
term,  however, average  stream  flow
must exceed demand by a substantial
margin  in  order  to  maintain a mini-
mum conservation pool, to allow for
evaporation,  and provide  a minimal
base-flow below the dam.

GROUNDWATER

Groundwater is another water  supply
source which can be developed to meet
needs in deficit areas. Massive amounts
of water are  stored in the pore spaces
of the soils and rock formations of the
Bay Area. However, the amount recov-
erable is governed by  economics, and
the geo-hydrologic  character  of the
area. Water  withdrawals  from  wells
will cause a lowering of the water table
in a three dimensional cone of depres-
sion around  the  well  often affecting
                                 TABLE 21
           CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION FRESHWATER SUPPLY ANALYSIS
                         AND PROJECTED DEFICITS, mgd
                                   Freshwater           Future Deficits
             Subregion               Supply       1980       2000
17-1  Baltimore, Md. SMSA
17-2  Maryland Eastern Shore
17-3  Virginia Eastern Shore
17-4  Delaware Non-SMSA
18-1  Washington, D.C. SMSA
18-2  Southern Maryland
18-3  Virginia Non-SMSA
21-1  Richmond-Petersburg-
       Colonial Heights SMSA's
21-2  Virginia Non-SMSA
22-1  Newport News-Hampton SMSA
22-2  Norfolk-Portsmouth SMSA
22-3  Virginia Non-SMSA
1,024*
 865
 250
 290
 936**
 234
 119

 678
 170
   73***
 106
   84
 0
 0
 0
 0
 0
 0
 0

 0
 0
 0
22
16
 0
 0
 0
 0
62
 0
 0

 0
 0
 0
 62
179
2020

   0
   0
   0
   0
1,015
   0
  • 0

  110
   0
   12
  114
  315
  * Assumes allowable withdrawal from Susquehanna River of 500 mgd.
 ** Increases to 1,073 mgd beyond 1990 due to Bloomington Project.
*** Increases to 93 mgd beyond 1990 due to Little Creek Project.
 the yields, capacities, and water qual-
 ity of other  wells in the area. Conse-
 quently,  groundwater supplies gener-
 ally serve their most valuable function
 in  areas with small-scale, evenly dis-
 persed demands, such as those for the
 rural domestic population, agricultural
 uses, small towns, and industries with
 relatively  low  water  requirements.
 Establishments requiring concentrated
 large-scale water supply developments
 have  invariably  located  in Western
 Shore  areas  where there is a greater
 potential for development of surface
 waters.

 DESALINIZATION

 Conversion of brackish water to fresh-
 water is a technique which can be used
 in  areas which  have depleted their
 conventional sources of supply. Given
 a supply of sea water or other brackish
 source,  freshwater can be  derived by
 various methods including distillation,
 membrane, and freezing processes. Be-
 cause  the  cost  of  desalinization is
 rather high, it is not normally used in
 water-rich areas   such as  the Chesa-
 peake Bay Region.


 INSTITUTIONAL MEASURES

 Institutional arrangements (changes in
 law, custom, or  practice)  and policy
 changes can increase the efficiency of
 water  use, or otherwise effect a damp-
 ening of  demand.  Examples include
 pricing  and  metering to  encourage
     thrift,  implementation of  plumbing
     codes to encourage water-saving appli-
     ances, and restrictions on use during
     droughts.  Homeowners,  commercial

     establishments,  and  industries  alike
     will curtail usage, to varying degrees,
     as  water  supplies increase  in  cost.
     Water use  restrictions  are most effec-
     tive when they are applied to uses such
     as  lawn watering, car washing, street
     cleaning, and non-critical commercial
     and industrial uses in such a way that
     major inconvenience and/or economic
     damage is  not suffered by the  com-
     munity. Advancing technology and a
     change in public acceptance could also
     lead to the  reuse of  wastewater  for
     municipal  purposes in areas depleted
     of the more traditional sources.
              WATER QUALITY

     CURRENT STATUS

     INTRODUCTION

     Water  is  one of the  three basic re-
     sources essential for the support of life
     and without which a Nation, State, or
     community cannot develop or prosper.
     Normally,  water  contains  minerals,
     nutrients, and aquatic organisms which
     occur  naturally. Due  to  man's acti-
     vities,  however, additional  materials
     are often discharged into the  waters.
     Excesses may cause reductions in the
     quality of  the water  resource  and
     render  it unfit  for  intended  uses.
                                                                                                               27

-------
Figure 15:  Potential Sources of Water Pollution
                                          Municipa
                                            Wastes
                                          Overflow
                                          Regulator
Industrial

Waste
Storm Water
 Discharges
         m,/
    \  \  -  \r  y
Non-Sewered Vi
   Runoff
                                                         Wastewater
                                                       Treatment Plant
                                                                    Treated
                                                                    Effluent
   28

-------
Under such  conditions, the  water  is
termed "polluted," that is, it  contains
harmful  or objectionable materials re-
ducing its utility.

Water quality  is the  term  used to
describe the  biological,  chemical, and
physical condition of the water in a
river,  bay,  ocean,  or  underground.
What  is  termed as "good" water qual-
ity differs depending on the  intended
use. Man  requires  water for  drinking
that  is free  of color, pathogenic bac-
teria,  and  objectionable  taste  and
odor.  Industries which  use water pri-
marily for cooling and  steam produc-
tion  require  water  free of  materials
 such as  chlorides, iron, and manganese
which may be  harmful  to equipment.
Agriculture  requires still a  different
quality of water that is  free of degrad-
ing materials toxic to plant and animal
life.  Finally, each form of aquatic life
requires water  of varying qualities in
order to assure its  healthy  existence.

Water quality problems generally arise
when the waste loads imposed by man
exceed the water's  capacity to assim-
ilate them adequately. The resulting
degradation can be very costly,  both
economically   and   ecologically.  In-
creased cost of  water treatment for
municipal and  industrial  use, the clos-
ing of shellfishing areas and the result-
ing income loss for persons employed
by  the  fishing industry, the loss of
valuable recreation areas, the degrada-
tion of aesthetic values, the corrosion
of   structures   exposed  to   water,
destruction of  fish  and wildlife habi-
tats, and the general reduction in the
use of receiving waters are all costs of
polluted waters.
Figure 16: The Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Study Areas
                 "•-;   > /^r  >
                   „

              "	/"""/"""" T:-'X)	/
                          .cl/\J V' ,.,„.   (/IM

                          /GiMHiilifS      f     («««»•
           Baltimore

           Potomac

           Rappahannock-York

           Lower James

           Lower Eastern Shore

           Upper Eastern Shore
The sources of water pollution may be
classified as either  "point" or "non-
point" and are illustrated in Figure 15.
Point sources are those in which the
degrading material is discharged from a
specific point.  Non-point  sources are
those in which the  degrading material
reaches the water course through flows
over a large area.
The  major  point
pollution are:
sources of  water
   1.  Municipal sewage outfalls.

   2.  Industrial waste outfalls.

   3.  Combined sewer outfalls.

The major non-point  sources of water
pollution are:

   1.  Agricultural runoff.

   2.  Urban runoff.

   3.  Marine transportation spills.

This section of the report presents the
findings of the Cheaspeake Bay Study
as they relate to the quality  of the
waters  of Chesapeake  Bay  and  its
tributaries. It is essentially a continu-
ation of the  1970 inventory of water
quality presented in the Existing  Con-
ditions Report. With the passage of the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments  of 1972  (P.L.  92-500)
much of the  water quality work origi-
nally  envisioned as part  of the Chesa-
peake  Bay Study  has  been accom-
plished at the State and local level.

The  geographical area considered for
the water quality study is based on the
river basins in the  Chesapeake Bay's
drainage  area. Within the Chesapeake
Bay  Region,  18 separate  river basin
segments  as  designated by the States
of Maryland, Virginia,  and Delaware
were  combined to  form six  regional
study areas. These are shown in Figure
16, and a  complete listing of the major
river basins within each  study area is
presented in Table 22.

WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS

The parameters used to measure water
quality  are  of three  major  types:
physical, chemical, and biological. The
most  important of these  parameters
                                                                                                                  29

-------
                                 TABLE 22
              CHESAPEAKE BAY WATER QUALITY STUDY AREAS
 Study Area I - Baltimore

    Lower Susquehanna River
    Bush River
    Gunpowder River
    Patapsco-Back River
    Patuxent River
    Magothy River
    Severn River
    South River
 Study Area II - Potomac

    Potomac River
    Occoquan River
    Anacostia River
 Study Area III - Rappahannock-York

    Rappahannock River
    York River
    Pamunkey River
    Mattaponi River
    Ingram Bay
    Fleets Bay
    Mobjack Bay
 The major  source of information for
 this analysis was the State Water Qual-
 ity  Management  Plans  required  by
 section 303(e) of P.L.  92-500, which
 provided  projections  of wastewater
 loadings and  water  quality needs for
 each river basin. "Problem area" infor-
 mation  was  taken  from  the State
 Water  Quality  Inventories  prepared
 under Section 305(b) of P.L. 92-500.
 are   Biochemical  Oxygen  Demand
 (BOD), bacteriological  indicators, sus-
 pended solids, dissolved solids, temper-
 ature,  dissolved  oxygen, nutrients,
 chlorophyll a, pH, and heavy  metals.
 By  monitoring and  studying these
 water  quality  parameters,  standards
 have been and  are being developed to
 control water pollution. These stand-
 ards,  required  of each state by  P.L.
. 92-500, reflect  the goal of water qual-
 ity management for the present and
 future. A more detailed description of
 these and other important parameters
 is presented  in Appendix 7, "Water
 Quality,"  and in the Glossary of this
 Summary.
 EXISTING WATER QUALITY
 CONDITIONS
 Characterizing the quality of the Bay's
 waters in one word is difficult because
 of  the wide  variety   of conditions
 encountered  in an area of this  size;
 however, a blanket  statement would
    Study Area IV — Lower James

      James River
      Appomattox River
      Back River
      Elizabeth River
      Lynnhaven Bay
    Study Area V - Lower Eastern Shore

       Pocomoke River
       Manokin River
       Wicomico River
       Nanticoke River
    Study Area VI - Upper Eastern Shore

       Choptank River
       Wye River
       Chester River
       Eastern Bay
       Northeast River
       Elk River
       C & D Canal
probably conclude that the water qual-
ity of the Bay itself is good, with most
of the severe problems occurring in the
tributaries especially near areas of high
population concentrations.  However,
increasing   loads   from  municipal
sewage treatment plants and industrial
sources,  as well  as  from agricultural
and  storm runoff,  and marine trans-
portation spills are causing stresses and
problems, some very severe, through-
out the Bay Region. In addition, as yet
unidentified pollutants may be present
in the Bay and its .tributaries causing
environmental damage. For example,
preliminary results  from a study by
the Smithsonian Institution indicate a
possible link between two widely used
agricultural herbicides and the decline
of  certain aquatic  grasses  in  Chesa-
peake Bay during the last decade.

 Figure 17 summarizes the major water
 quality problems of the larger tribu-
 taries and their surrounding land areas.
 In  general, municipal and industrial
 wastes  have  been  found to be the
 major problems in the populated areas
 of Baltimore, Washington, Richmond,
 and  Norfolk. Other less  populated
 areas suffer  mainly from agricultural
 and land runoff as  well  as smaller
 amounts  of municipal discharges. The
 following sections present a capsulated
 summary of the existing water quality
conditions as they relate to the estab-
lished water quality standards for each
of the six  major water quality study
areas in the entire Bay Region. More
detailed information on water quality
and the  standards for these  basins is
presented in Appendix 7, "Water Qual-
ity."

   a. Study Area I - Baltimore. Nutri-
ents appear to be the major problem in
the Lower Susquehanna River Basin as
algal blooms have been on the increase
over  the past  several years.  Heavy
municipal  and  industrial  loads  up-
stream  have  been identified  as  the
major contributors. High nutrient con-
centrations have also been identified in
other major rivers in  the Baltimore
Study Area including  the Patuxent,
Severn, South, Gunpowder, Bush, and
Back Rivers.

In  the Patapsco River, and especially
the Baltimore  Harbor Area,  32 major
industrial  dischargers  and 10  major
municipal  dischargers along  with the

heavily urbanized development in the
 area are creating stressed conditions in
 the surrounding waters. Major prob-
lems include  low  dissolved  oxygen
 contents,  high  bacterial  concentra-
 tions, and  undesirable levels of other
 pollutants  such as heavy  metals and
 oil.

 The Patuxent River  also suffers from
 the heavy development along its  river
 banks.  Eighteen major municipal facil-
 ities, increased construction and urban
 runoff, and faulty septic systems  have
 been  named  as the  principal  con-
 tributors to  the occasional low dis-
 solved oxygen contents, turbid waters,
 and  increased  levels  of nitrogen and
 phosphorus found in the  waters. Bac-
 terial concentrations have also caused
 problems in the area, especially during
 periods of low flow.

    b.  Study Area II - Potomac.  Serv-
 ing as  the  major water supply for the
 District of Columbia and surrounding
 areas, the Potomac River is stressed by
 the heavy urban development along its
 river banks in the Washington Area.
 Agricultural   runoff  from  upstream
 sources contributes high volumes of
 nutrients and bacterial contamination
 prior to   entering  the  metropolitan
 area.
  30

-------
                                                       SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
                                                       Nutrients, Sedimentation
                                                       & Flow Modification
                                PATAPSCO & BACK RIVERS
                                Municipal & Industrial
                                Discharge & Spoil Disposal
                                                                        UPPER EASTERN SHORE
                                                                        Nutrients, Sedimentation,
                                                                        Flow Modification, Boating
                                                                        & Spoil Disposal
                               PATUXENT RIVER
                               Urbanization,
                               Municipal Discharge
                               Thermal Discharge,  (\
                               & Offshore Development
POTOMAC RIVER
Municipal & Thermal
Discharge, Urbanization,
& Sedimentation
                                                                                   LOWER
                                                                                   EASTERN SHORE
                                                                                   Agricultural Runoff,
                                                                                   Processing Wastes
                                                                                ?_ & Offshore
                                                                                   Development
YORK a RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS
Sedimentation, Boating Activity,
Oil Spills, & Industrial Wastes
        LOWER JAMES RIVER
        Municipal & Industrial Discharge,
        Heavy Metals & Pesticides,
        Spoil Disposal & Boating Activities
       Figure 1 7:   Existing  Water  Quality Problems  in Chesapeake Bay
                                                                                                       31

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Near  the  District,  high volumes of
municipal  wastewater (led by the 309
mgd from the Blue Plains Plant) and
urban  runoff cause  some  dissolved
oxygen depletions while adding to the
nutrient enrichment of the river. Im-
proving as it nears  Chesapeake Bay,
the  Lower  Potomac River  generally
meets  standards  but still suffers from
the development upstream and espe-
cially  the  sediment  generated  from
urban and agricultural runoff. In 1973,
over 3 million tons  of sediment were
emptied into the Potomac Estuary and
primary production, while not heavily
stressed, appears to have suffered.

 Tributaries   such  as  the  Anacostia •
 River, Piscataway Creek, Rock Creek,
 Occoquan  River, Goose Creek,  and
 Port Tobacco River also suffer from
 urban and agricultural runoff as well as
 discharges from the 'sewage treatment
 plants in the area. The main problems
 are  high  bacterial  concentrations,
 occasional  dissolved  oxygen  deple-
 tions, turbid waters, and  increasing
 nutrient concentrations.

    c.  Study Area  III  — Rappahan-
 nock-York.  The Rappahannock River
 Basin, extensively rural  in nature, has
 relatively minor water  quality  prob-
 lems with the exception of the waters
 near the  City of Fredericksburg. High
 bacterial   concentrations  and  occa-
 sional dissolved oxygen sags  in the
 mainstream have been traced to exten-
 sive agricultural runoff throughout the
 entire basin and some  of the smaller
 sewage treatment  plants in the area
 which  discharge   partially  treated
 wastes. The Great Wicomico River and
 Indian,  Cockrell, and Dymer  Creeks
 also experience high bacterial concen-
 trations and occasional dissolved oxy-
 gen  sags for much the same  reasons.
 Boating  activity  near  the Wirdmill
 Point area  is causing some concern as
 bacterial   concentrations,   nutrients,
 and dissolved oxygen depletions have
 been on the increase.

 The York  River, near its headwaters,
 exhibits water of excellent quality. In
 the West Point Area, however, degra-
 dations in the form  of low dissolved
 oxygen,  low pH, and  high bacterial
 concentrations  occur, mostly  the re-
 sult of urban  runoff, landfill  runoff,
 swamp  drainage, and discharges from
 the  nearby  sewage treatment  plant.
Sedimentation is also a growing prob-
lem throughout the entire basin with
the primary contributor  being  urban
runoff,  although- only 2 percent  of
land area is in urban use.
King,  Carter,  and  Sarah  Creeks,  all
tributaries  to  the York River,  have
high bacterial  and nutrient concentra-
tions which are attributed to local STP
discharges  and marina activities in the
surrounding areas. Near the mouth of
the  York  River,  dissolved   oxygen
depletions have created some problems
and are  caused  by the "tidal prism"
effect  which  prohibits the mixing of
the  layers  of  water  that replenish
oxygen supplies.
    d.  Study Area IV - Lower James.
 The Lower James River (from the City
 of  Richmond  to  Chesapeake  Bay)
 ranks  as  one  of the most  heavily
 developed and industrialized basins in
 the Bay Region with 35 major sewage
 treatment plants  and  29 large indus-
 trial firms in its drainage area. Most of
 the water quality problems found in
 the basin  are  direct  results  of the
 intensive  development in  the Rich-
 mond,    Hopewell,   and   Norfolk-
 Newport News Area.  Major problems
 in the  basin  include  low  dissolved
 oxygen, high nutrient concentrations,
 high  bacterial  concentrations,  high
 chlorine   toxicities,   and   excessive
 amounts of heavy metals. Tributaries
 such as the  Elizabeth  and Lynnhaven
 Rivers, and Bailey and Ashton Creeks,
 are also degraded and have the  same
 problems  and sources  as the mainstem
 of   the  James.  Shipping  in  the
 Hampton Roads  complex has created
 some problems, with occasionally high
 bacterial  concentrations and oil spills
 being  the most  prevalent. Pesticide
 concentrations, while not frequently
 monitored in  the past, have also be-
 come an  area of great concern in the
 James Basin following the  "kepone"
 incident  of  1976. Illustrative of the
 magnitude  of  the concern  was the
 closure, for a 7-month period, of the
 lower James River to all fishing, by
 Virginia  Governor Mills  Godwin in
 June of 1976.
     e. Study Area V - Lower Eastern
  Shore.  The  Pocomoke  River,  while
generally of good quality, has shown
some  degradation near the Pocomoke
City,  Snow Hill and  Crisfield Areas.
Low dissolved oxygen, high bacterial
concentrations, and  nutrient  enrich-
ment  are the main problems. Improve-
ment   of water  quality  conditions,
however, has been realized  in recent
months due to improved treatment at
sewage  treatment plants in  the  area.
The main sources of degradation in the
basin  are now considered to be septic
tank  leakage  and the poor flushing
action of the Estuary  particularly dur-
ing low flow  conditions. The Nanti-
coke  and Wicomico Rivers,  especially
in the Salisbury area,  suffer  from high
bacterial   concentrations.   Shellfish
closures in the  area  are  necessary
because  of the high volumes of storm
runoff, septic tank leakage, and the
low level of treatment provided by the
existing  sewage  treatment  plants.
Agricultural runoff is also a problem in
the basins,  contributing bacteria and
nutrients from soils,  manure seepage,
and feedlot runoff.
    f. Study Area VI -  Upper Eastern
 Shore.-The Choptank, Chester and Elk
 Rivers are all basically rural  in char-
 acter and suffer from agricultural run-
 off and septic  system leakage  prob-
 lems.  High  nutrient   concentrations
 near the  upper  Bay  have  brought
 about increasing algal blooms in  the
 Chester and  Elk Rivers. Small sewage
 treatment  plant discharges and scat-
 tered  seafood  packaging  wastes have
 caused some bacterial  problems  near
 the  more  populated  areas  of  the
 Chester and Choptank Rivers. Finally,
 pleasure boating activities in the sum-
 mer and fall seasons are causing some
 bacterial problems near the mouths of
 all the major rivers in this area.

 FUTURE WATER QUALITY
 NEEDS

 MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER

 Increasing levels of population and per
 capita income  in the Chesapeake Bay
 Region will mean increased municipal
 wastewater volumes. Table 23 presents
 data  by  river  basin  on  anticipated
 municipal wastewater flows and treat-
 ment  needs.
 As shown  in  Table  23, projected
 wastewater  flows  exceed  the  1975
 treatment plant capacity in all of the
  32

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river basins for which projections were
available. In addition to the need for
more capacity, treatment  plants pro-
viding more advanced treatment of the
wastewaters will  be required in most
areas of the  Bay Region in order to
meet the requirements  of  PL-92-500.

INDUSTRIAL WASTEWATER

Industrial discharges will have a great
bearing on the achievement of  water
quality   management   goals  in  the
future,  especially in highly industri-
alized  areas   such   as   Baltimore,
Richmond-Hopewell,   and  Norfolk.
Industrial discharges are a  function of
industrial water supply and consump-
tion, the level of industrial develop-
ment,  and  most  importantly,  the
amount  of  water   recycled.   These
parameters are discussed  in detail in
Appendix 5, "Municipal and Industrial
Water Supply."

The   industrial discharge   projections
presented  in  Figure  18  are  median
range values which balance  projections
reflecting simple historical data on one
hand   and    maximum    attainable
recycling technology on the other. The
curve presented in Figure 18 acknowl-
edges that, while recycling rates will
indeed continue to improve, it is more
likely that a  lesser degree of imple-
mentation of technology in industrial
water reuse will  occur. Although the
discharge projections do  not specifi-
cally address actual concentrations of
waste products or projected discharge
                                 TABLE 23
   FUTURE MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER TREATMENT NEEDS, SELECTED AREAS
                              Projected Flow       Existing Capacity
      River Basin             Year        (mgd)        (mgd, 1975)

Lower Susquehanna            1995         3.27           1.87
Patapsco                     1990        261.60         238.76
West Chesapeake              2000        32.80          19.40
Patuxent                     2000        96.30          39.40
Washington Metro.             2000        543.80         344.64
Northern Virginia              2020        363.30         111.98
Rappahannock                2020        19.541          8.38
York                        2020        39.601          2.98
James (Lower)                2020        386.00         163.97
Accomack-Northampton        2000         1.26           0.74
Pocomoke                   2000         3.00           2.65
Nanticoke                    1995        13.56   -      12.80
Elk                         1995         4.99           3.40

1 Based on total population and not population served.  .
                            Deficit
                             (mgd)

                               1.40
                             22.84
                             13.40
                             56.90
                            199.16
                            251.32
                             11.16
                             36.62
                            222.03
                               0.52
                               0.35
                               0.76
                               1.59
loadings, they do, however, serve as an
indicator of  the marked  decrease in
industrial discharges that  may be ex-
pected  in  pursuit of  National water
quality  goals. It should be noted that
the  values  presented   in  Figure 18
include  only the five major water-using
industrial groups  in the  Chesapeake
Bay Region  (i.e.,  chemicals,  primary
metals,  paper and allied products, food
and kindred products, and petroleum).
These industries, however, account for
about 82 percent of the total water
withdrawals in the Bay Region.

OTHER POINT AND NONPOINT
SOURCE PROBLEM AREAS

   a. Thermal Discharges: Increases in
the  demand  for  electric power,  as
 Figure  18:  Industrial Discharge Projections for the Chesapeake Bay Region with
            Moderate Technology
                                                                      2020
outlined  in  Appendix  13,  Electric
Power, will create the additional prob-
lem of the disposal of heated cooling
waters. In 1972, an average of nearly
7,700 mgd was discharged from power
plants  into  Chesapeake  Bay  waters,
almost 8.5 times the average discharge
of  sewage  treatment  plants  in. the
Area. Projected withdrawals for 1980
are expected to be near 8,500 mgd; of
which 3,500 are required for the Surry
and Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plants
alone.  A major  concern  is the effect
such heavy  concentrations of heated
waters will have on the aquatic envi-
ronment.  Complicating the  problem
are  the  physical   characteristics  of
Chesapeake  Bay, an estuary which is
relatively  shallow  and of  moderate
temperature, thereby limiting its effi-
ciency for the dispersion of heated
effluents.
                                          b. Chlorine: Chlorine, used widely
                                        as a fouling preventative in industry
                                        and  as  a disinfectant  for  municipal
                                        wastes, has in combination with ele-
                                        ments in receiving waters been found
                                        to cause up to 90 percent reduction in
                                        primary productivity near wastewater
                                        treatment plant  discharges.  Future
                                        threats  center  around  an  overabun-
                                        dance of total chlorine  residuals, due
                                        to   the  increased  volumes of  both
                                        municipal and industrial discharges as
                                        well as the required lowering of coli-
                                        form  densities in  discharges which
                                        require increasing  amounts of disin-
                                        fectant.

                                          c. Agricultural and Urban Runoff:
                                        With approximately 40 percent of the
                                        Bay's land area  in agricultural use,
                                                                                                                33

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pollutants such as nutrients, pesticides,
sediment, and animal waste products
can be expected to continue to contri-
bute  a  significant loading.  Although
the percentage of land in agricultural
use is projected to decrease, intensive
farming  practices which attempt  to
grow the same or greater amounts of
crops on smaller land areas may contri-
bute even greater loadings than before.
Urban  runoff may  be  expected  to
increase  markedly   as   population
growth  and  urban  expansion  con-
tinue.  Large amounts  of runoff con-
taining  oils, chemicals, and  sediments
cause  significant  problems near  the
major cities of the Bay Region.

   d. Oil and Marine  Transportation
Spills: With the  projected  increase in
both total traffic and the total amount
of oil products shipped on Chesapeake
Bay (see Appendix 9, Navigation) the
probability  of  accidental  spills may
also increase.  Other  hazardous chemi-
cals in transport  will also be subject to
accidental  spills  as  Bay  traffic  in-
creases. Other sources of oil, especially
municipal  discharges,  have  not  yet
been thoroughly researched. More de-
tailed information on  these  subjects
can be found in Appendix Is, Biota.

   e. Sedimentation: Sedimentation, a
natural   phenomenon  the  level  of
which  has  been  increased  beyond
natural  levels due to man's activities,
can also be expected to increase in the
future as population grows in the Bay
 Region. A projected doubling  of popu-
lation in the Chesapeake Bay Region
between 1970  and  2020  means  that
the  existing  number  of residences,
 office buildings, etc., will also roughly
have to double, implying a tremendous
 amount  of construction activity with
 its potential for causing sedimentation
 problems during the projection period.

    f. Recreational  and Commercial
Boating Activities:  The large and in-
 creasing numbers of both commercial
 and recreational vessels  currently con-
 tribute  a significant amount of raw
 sewage  through direct overboard dis-
 charges. The  problems caused by these
 discharges  are  expected to  continue
 into the future  until adequate  pump-
 ing facilities  can be installed to treat
 the sewage at  marina  and port facil-
 ities.
   g. Septic  Tank  Failures:  Failing
septic  systems,  which  cause  major
problems in many of the rural areas of
the Chesapeake  Bay  Region can  be
expected to continue to plague those
areas until  either the  old systems are
repaired or sewer service can be pro-
vided. In those areas outside expected
sewerage expansions and where poor
soil conditions exist, new methods of
handling wastes from individual home-
sites will  have  to  be  found before
improvement can be expected.


   h. Solid Waste Leachates: Seepage
from  the ever  increasing number of
solid waste dumps and sanitary landfill
sites may also pose  a serious threat to
water quality in the future, especially
in the contamination of groundwater
supplies. Protection of both private
and  public water supplies by sealing
them off from  the potentially high
amounts of sodium, potassium, cal-
cium, magnesium, and  organic pollu-
tants characteristic of this leachate will
be necessary to avoid contamination
problems in the future.  Also, some
means  of  treating  the  collected
leachate will be necessary.

MANAGEMENT AND OTHER
PROBLEMAREAS

In pursuing the goals  of  improved
water quality, numerous problems are
being encountered  by the responsible
management agencies. Some common
management-related   problems   are
presented below:


   a.  Financial  Capabilities:   The
adequacy  of existing  technology  to
meet  goals  and  objectives of P.L.
92-500 does not appear to be  a signi-
ficant problem.  The costs  associated
with  implementing  these   improve-
ments,  however, appears to be  a prob-
lem of great magnitude. In a 1973
report  by the  National  Water Com-
mission to the President of the United
States,  it  was   estimated that  imple-
mentation  of  pollution  abatement
policy based on "Best Available" tech-
nology for treatment of both  muni-
cipal  and  industrial  point  source
wastes by  1983  would require expend-
itures  of about $460 billion through
 1983. Implementation  of a true "no
discharge" policy had been estimated
to cost several  times that amount.
  wow or coN-moi COSTS
so-

40-

30-

zo-
                             _39_
                             _3
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quality  needs. The measures are dis-
cussed in terms of physical alternatives
and management or legislative actions.


PHYSICAL ALTERNATIVES

There  are two basic  approaches  to
physically controlling or treating the
increasing volume of wastewater flows.
One of them involves the installation
of water-saving devices and methods
that cut down or limit the volume of
wastewater generated.  The other ap-
proach concerns the various methods
and equipment available for treatment
and disposal  of waste  products after
generation.
   a. Improving   Water  Use   Tech-
nology:  This means  is  actually  a
method which limits the production or
per capita consumption of water and
ultimately wastewater flow. It  usually
involves a "fine-tuning" of plumbing
devices which will use less water to do
the  same  job. Among the plumbing
provisions are toilets which use less
water,  pressure  relief valves   which
limit water pressures, customer educa-
tion  programs  which  encourage the
wise  use  of  water, and shower heads
which limit  flows. The institution of
these measures  has been difficult be-
cause   of the  lack  of appropriate
plumbing  parts,  additional costs for
refitting older devices, and follow-up
adjustments.  Plumbing code revisions
seem to  hold the most hope  in the
future  for instituting these measures.

   b. Increased Industrial  Treatment
and Recirculation: In keeping with the
requirements  of  present  legislation,
improvement in treatment technology
(percent pollutant removal) will most
likely result in water of better quality.
This in turn  will result  in an increased
ability  of industrial plants to reuse this
water in  the production process and
decrease.volumes of flow to the rivers.

Two specific  alternatives are pretreat-
ment  and by-product  recovery. Pre-
treatment of industrial wastes removes
the unique pollutants of an industrial
process prior to discharge in municipal
sewers.  The  potential  use  or  sale of
waste  by-products  of the industrial
process will  also create incentives for
industry  to   re-circulate wastes and
remove these pollutants as opposed to
dumping them in  watercourses. In the
pulp and paper industries for example,
certain  wastes  can  be synthesized to
produce artificial vanilla flavoring and
other valuable by-products.

   c. Increased Municipal Treatment:
Increasing both the capacity and pol-
lutant  removal capabilities of Bay area
sewage  treatment  plants  can contri-
bute greatly to  the  improvement of
the surface waters of Chesapeake Bay.
Emphasis can also be placed upon the
construction  and   enlargement  of
regional  sewage   treatment   plants
which have shown the ability to treat
wastes more effectively as well as more
economically. Larger  facilities also re-
lieve overloading due  to combined
sewers  and enable presently unserved
areas to receive wastewater treatment.

   d. Cooling  of  Thermal   Wastes:
Three methods of cooling the heated
waters  of power plants are currently
available; wet towers, dry  towers, and
cooling ponds.  In wet towers, the hot
effluent  is exposed to air circulating
through  a specially shaped tower. As
water  evaporates, heat is lost.  Dry
towers  pass  the effluent through a
series of pipes  over which cool  air is
passed  and heat  is lost by radiation.
Cooling  ponds  are  also  a  possible
solution, but require larger areas than
the other alternatives. Appendix 13,
"Electric  Power," presents more de-
tailed   information   on  alternatives
available to reduce the problems asso-
ciated with thermal discharges.

   e. Land Treatment of  Wastewater:
In a land treatment operation, sec-
ondarily treated wastes are transported
to the  land treatment site instead of
being disposed of in the watercourses.
The  effluent  is  then stored, chlori-
nated, and applied to the land surface
by  a  variety  of basic  means.  The
underlying concept is based upon the
use of  the soil mantle and its  vege-
tative cover  which acts as a "living
filter"  to remove pollutants. By this
process  the  oxygen  demanding sub-
stances  are destroyed by oxidation,
the nitrogen and  phosphorous con-
sumed  by plant growth, and the puri-
fied water returned to the ecosystem
by   groundwater  recharge.  Heavy
metals are also immobilized by adsorp-
tion on soil particles.


   f. Control  of Non-Point  Source
Pollutants:  Actions  which  seek to
reduce   the  amount of non-point
source  pollutants such  as  sediment,
pesticides, oils, heavy metals, and coli-
form organisms are  also very impor-
tant in improving water quality in the
Bay and  its tributaries. Agricultural
runoff  policies which have  proven
most effective  are contour  plowing,
ridge planting,  the   construction  of
sedimentation ponds and terraces, and
the diversion and treatment of wastes
from livestock  feed yards. Urban run-
off controls  consist  mainly of devel-
oping policies to implement separate
storm drains and installation of reten-
tion basins which store runoff for later
treatment or disposal.

   g. Other  Physical Methods: Tech-
niques such as  deep  well injection of
wastes,  runoff  controls,  alternative
means of wastewater disinfection, and
methods  for improving  assimilative
capacities of waterways are some other
methods that have been proposed as at
least partial  solutions to the  increas-
ingly complex problems of waste dis-
posal in the Chesapeake Bay  Region.
These  alternatives  are discussed  in
detail in Appendix 7.

MANAGEMENT AND LEGISLATIVE
ACTIONS

   a. Management Auctions: The major
management options available to  re-
duce,   re-distribute,   or   limit  the
demand  for water  and thereby the
volume  of municipal wastewaters, are
pricing  policies,  sewer moratoriums,
and  consumer education. Pricing poli-
cies  seek to reduce  consumption of
water by levying higher rates during
those  periods   of  time   when the
demand  is high. Sewer  moratoriums
have  been  used in  areas  where de-
mands for water and sewerage service
have exceeded  the ability  to  provide
adequate  treatment.   These  mora-
toriums usually prohibit the extension
of old  systems.  This method of re-
distributing   demand has  been used
effectively in the Washington Metro-
politan  area where   counties in the
surrounding  metropolis  have  imple-
mented  moratoriums as  emergency
measures. Consumer  education  prac-
tices stress the  voluntary conservation
of  water.  The  basic elements of a
program of this type might involve the
distribution   of information  on the
water consumption  characteristics of
major appliances of  all brands. Other
programs might include  door-to-door

                                35

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distribution  of water saving packages
containing instructions for correcting
leaky and excessive water-using appli-
ances as well  as  dye tablets to help
detect leaks within the home.

   b. Legislative  Actions:  For  the
present  and near  future,  the require-
ments of the Federal Water Pollution
Control  Act  Amendments of  1972
appear to serve as a schedule to imple-
ment the desired water quality goals
for both the Chesapeake  Bay Region
and  the United  States.  Appendix 7
provides a  summary of the  major
provisions  of PL 92-500 and other
recent supplemental legislation.


      OUTDOOR RECREATION
 CURRENT STATUS

 EXISTING SUPPL YAND DEMAND

 The Chesapeake Bay Region's approxi-
 mately 7,300  miles of shoreline  and
 4,400 square  miles of water  surface
 area along  with its  temperate  climate
 make  it  a very  attractive place for
 water-related recreation activities such
 as sailing, boating, swimming, picnick-
 ing, and camping.  In order to better
 plan  for  the  use  of  the resource,
 Statewide  Comprehensive  Outdoor
 Recreation Plans  (SCORP's) were pre-
 pared by all the States in the Study
 Area under the provisions of the Land
 and Water Conservation Fund Act of
 1965. These studies included an inven-
 tory of existing boating, sailing, swim-
 ming, camping, and picnicking activi-
 ties. The results of  these surveys show
 that the Study  Area  had a public
 supply  at  the time of the survey of
 approximately  440  boat  ramps,
 20,200  camping  sites,  26,600 picnic
 tables, and 2,500 acres of beach and
 swimming pools.

 In many cases, the  provision of facil-
 ities for public  recreation have not
 kept  pace with  the burgeoning de-
 mand. In the Bay Region, the  number
 of boat ramps and picnic tables are not
 sufficient  to  meet  existing  public
 demand. It is estimated that an addi-
 tional  130 boat ramps  and  13,600
 picnic tables are needed. On the other
 hand, there is presently  a surplus of
 swimming  and camping facilities in the
 Bay Region.
Due to  the nature of outdoor recrea-
tion in  the Chesapeake Bay Region,
boating  and  sailing activities deserve
special attention. Only about one-half
of one  percent  of the water surface
area of  Chesapeake Bay and its tribu-
taries would be  required to meet cur-
rent boating and sailing demands. The
inability to satisfactorily meet current
boating and sailing demands, however,
is  not  due to an absence  of  water
surface  area, but as indicated above, to
an  insufficient supply of  public slips
and launching ramps.  This is further
illustrated by the fact that the 28,000
trailer boats registered in  Maryland in
1971 had  access to the Bay through
only 125 public boat ramps.

Figure  20 below presents the  1970
resident (those  living in  the  Bay
Region) outdoor recreation needs and
surpluses by recreation subregion. The
boundaries of these  subregions con-
form to those of the State planning
regions as defined in the  SCORP's.
Together these subregions  make up the
primary areas  of recreation demand
within  the Chesapeake Bay Region.
As shown in Figure 20, the deficiency
in  boating ramps is most  acute in the
Baltimore   and  Washington   Metro-
politan Areas while the surpluses are
the greatest in the much more sparsely
populated  areas of the Eastern  Shore
of Maryland and Tidewater Virginia.
Because of this, boat owners  in  the
Baltimore  and Washington areas must
often travel  unusually long  distances
to   launch their vessels  in relatively
uncrowded environs.

 The large  2,100 acre surplus of swim-
 ming  pool and  beach acreage  is  due
 primarily  to  wide expanses of ocean
 beach  on  the Maryland,  Virginia, and
 Delaware  coasts. It  is significant to
 note that the most  highly urbanized
 regions, Baltimore,  Washington,  and
 Richmond show the greatest need  for
 additional swimming space.

 More subregions have a deficiency of
 picnic  tables than of any  other out-
 door   recreation facility.  Only  the
 Southern  Maryland, Virginia Tide-
 water, and the Eastern Shore of Vir-
 ginia   subregions have  a surplus of
 picnic  tables. Typically, the greatest
 shortages  are in the metropolitan areas
 of Baltimore  and Washington which
 combined account for approximately
 67 percent of the Bay Area's total net
resident  need.  The  Richmond  and
Hampton Roads subregions also have
large picnic table needs.

The Baltimore SMSA and  Maryland
portion of the Washington SMSA sub-
regions   are  the  only   areas  which
presently lack an adequate number of
camping  sites to meet resident needs.
Combined, these two subregions show
a  need  for 2,100 camp  sites. The
remainder of  the  Bay  Region has a
present surplus of  15,500 sites, which
means the entire  Bay  Region has a
total surplus of 13,400 sites.

It  is important to  note  that the out-
door  recreation needs and  surpluses
presented in Figure 20  are  resident
demands  only. Non-resident demand
was not  disaggregated by  subregicn-
of-occurrence  due  to time  and data
constraints. If non-resident demand is
taken into account, however, there is a
substantial increase in  the  need for
boating and sailing ramps, swimming
acreage,  picnic  tables  and camping
sites.

PROBLEMS AND CONFLICTS

From the standpoint of the  general
public, Chesapeake Bay is one of the
most   inaccessible   estuaries  in  the
Nation.   Private   interests   have
responded  to   the  deficits in  public
recreational   facilities   by   providing
facilities  of  their own. As a result, an
estimated 47 percent of all land and
water  recreation  areas  in  the  Bay
Region are in private  control.  Control
of Chesapeake Bay's  shoreline  by
private   interests  is  even  more  ex-
tensive.  For example, according to a
study conducted  by  the Chesapeake
Bay Interagency Planning Committee,
only  three  percent of the Maryland
shoreline is publicly-owned.

 Much of the  recreationally desirable
 land  available  is in competition with
 other forms of land development such
 as private homes,  utility development,
 or military reservations. For example,
 in urban areas where recreation oppor-
 tunities  are most urgently needed, the
 shoreline has  often been developed as
 major port and industrial complexes.
 A significant  percent of the publicly-
 owned shoreline is held by the Federal
 government,  primarily  the  military,
 and  is  unavailable  for  use   by  the
 general public.
  36

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SWIMMING
       less than 1
                                                0&
                                                *'•*, si
                                                "«£ f*

                                            NEEDED'ACRES
                                             •URPLUS ACRES
     WASHINGTON D.C
  less
                                                      37

-------
   PICNIC
                                                       :&:ri[L-ri T-AQI pc
                                                       ... i... IS i.,. Irf 1 .*% O i_. C V*
                                                  ^ SURPLUS. TABLES


                                                  OVEW
        WASHINGTON D.C
38

-------
CAMPING
                                            SURPLUS SITES
                                         OVER
      WASHINGTON D.C
                                                      39

-------
  BOATING
       WASHINGTON D.C
                                            MfcEOKi") RAMPS
  SURPLUS RAMPS
overt


less than 10
40

-------
Other factors interfere with the maxi-
mum recreational  utilization of the
Bay  and its tributaries. Water quality
has deteriorated in many sections of
the   tributaries   precluding  body-
contact water recreation. This problem
is especially severe  in the urban areas
where  demands are the greatest. For
example,  the  number of  bathing
beaches in Baltimore County approved
for operation  by county  health offi-
cials has declined from 21 in 1966 to 6
in 1976.

The  stinging sea nettle and the closely
related  comb  jellies or ctenophores
which reach peak  abundance in the
summer months also discourage water
contact recreation. Other deterrents to
recreation activities include the exist-
ence of extensive and  often  valuable
wetlands  and  the occasionally objec-
tionable  growth of certain aquatic
plants  such  as the  Eurasian Water-
milfoil  and water chestnut which inhi-
bit boating and swimming.

Recreational use of  the Bay and its
tributaries has created problems and
conflicts  in itself. For example, many
boaters are responsible for degrading
water quality by dumping refuse over-
board,  discharging  sewage  effluent.
and  spilling gas and oil  into the water.
The result is unsightly debris, and  in
some cases, the closing of certain areas
to both water-contact  recreation and
shellfish harvesting. In addition, recre-
ational  boating  frequently conflicts
with other  aquatic activities such  as
swimming,  fishing,  commercial ship-
ping, and private shore  front property
use  (brought about by erosion of the
shoreline from boat wakes). Finally,
recreational boating has led  to over-
crowding of certain waterways, par-
ticularly those most accessible to  the
large urban .areas.  This  has created
dangerous, undesirable  conditions for
both boaters and swimmers.

FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Figure  21 illustrates the  relationship
between existing supply and projected
demand for boating and sailing, swim-
ming, picnicking, and camping in the
Study  Area.  As  can  be  seen, the
demand for boating ramps  is expected
to   exceed  the  existing   supply  by
almost  six  times by the year 2020.
Most of the  increase  in  demand  is
expected to occur in the  three  sub-
regions  surrounding  Baltimore  and
Washington. These subregions are also
projected  to  have  the  most  critical
supply  deficits in  2020  with  1,150
ramps needed. A major  supply deficit
in 2020 is also expected in the Rich-
mond subregjon.  The only subregions
predicted by BOR to have a surplus of
ramps through the  year 2020 are the
Eastern Shore of Maryland and  Vir-
ginia  and  the Tidewater portion of
Virginia.  Of  the total  demand  for
boating ramps in  2020, almost 22
percent of the total will be accounted
for by non-resident demand.
The need for swimming beaches and
pools  is  also  expected  to increase
significantly during the next 50 years.
Although the entire Study Area has a
supply  excess  over  the  projection
period, supply deficiencies in the Balti-
more,  Washington,   and  Richmond
metropolitan  areas are  expected to
increase from approximately 200 acres
of beach  and  swimming pool water
surface  area  in 1980 to  almost  400
acres in 2000 and over 550 acres in the
year  2020.  Large supply  surpluses
were  projected for the Maryland and
Virginia Eastern Shore, Delaware, and
Hampton Roads subregions. These sur-
pluses, however, were due to the large
expanses of ocean beaches in these
areas. Access to these beaches may be
a problem  for many Study Area  resi-
dents due to financial and/or transpor-
tation constraints. This  is especially
true  for many low-income families in
the urban areas where supply deficits
are most acute. Non-resident demand
 F.jure 21:   Projected Demand and Existing  Supply  for Boating and Sailing,
           Swimming, Picnicking, and Camping, Chesapeake Bay Region (Resident
          and Non-Resident)
     Boating
     and Sailing  Ramps
     (In Thousands)
   •*- Supply -»-
                   -Demand -
     Picknicking
     Tables
     (In Thousands)
  -*• Supply-*
                    Demand -
      1 Existing
                        1980
   Swimming
   Acres of Beach and Pool
   (In Thousands)
  Camping Sites
  (In Thousands)
                                             2000
                                                              2020
                                                                                                                41

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is expected to account for 22 percent
of   the   total   swimming   demand
throughout the projection period.
In 1970, there was a total of approxi-
mately  26,600 picnic tables  in  the
Chesapeake Bay Study Area which was
24,800 tables  short of the total resi-
dent and non-resident demand in the
same year. By the year 2000, this is
expected to increase  to  over  54,000
picnic tables and  by 2020 approxi-
mately  95,000 tables. Typically, the
greatest  projected shortages are in the
major urban areas of Baltimore, Wash-
ington,  Hampton  Roads,  and Rich-
mond. Moderate surpluses were pro-
jected for the Southern Maryland and
Virginia   Eastern  Shore  subregions.
Non-residents will  exert  demands on
picnic facilities which are expected to
amount to a fairly constant 25 percent
of  total demand  over the projection
period.

The entire Study Area has a surplus of
11,400  camping sites with only the
Washington and Baltimore areas show-
ing current supply deficits. By the year
2000, however,  there is projected to
be  a supply deficit of approximately
 1,100  sites  and  by 2020  there  is
expected to be a need for over 12,500
sites. Once  again,  the Baltimore and
Washington Metropolitan areas are ex-
pected to experience the largest defi-
cits with resident demand alone  in
2020  amounting to five and one-half
times the existing supply. Existing
camp sites in Hampton Roads,  Tide-
water  Virginia,  Petersburg-Hope well,
 and the Eastern Shores  of both Mary-
 land and  Virginia  are expected to  be
 sufficient to meet resident demands
 through  the projection  period. Non-
 resident  demand for camping in the
 Study Area is estimated to be approxi-
 mately  25  percent of total  demand
 throughout the projection period. For
 more information  on projections of
 facility  requirements by  subregions,
 see Appendix 8 of this Report.

 MEANS TO SATISFY NEEDS

 If it is assumed that meeting future
 outdoor  recreation needs within the
 Study  Area is  desirable, then there
 exists  a  number   of means  to help
 satisfy  future  boating  and  sailing,
 swimming,  picnicking,  and  camping
needs. The vast amounts of underuti-
lized  water-related  land resources  in
the Study  Area could  be used  for
much  of the future recreation activi-
ties.  Among   the  underutilized  re-
sources are vast stretches of shoreline
controlled  by  the  Federal  Govern-
ment.

These  areas  include  large  tracts  of
military lands such as Aberdeen Prov-
ing Ground, Edge wood Arsenal, Quan-
tico Marine  Base, Fort  Story, and
Camp  Peary Military Reservation. The
"Baltimore  Urban  Recreation Analy-
sis" prepared by BOR contains  infor-
mation and  general findings  directly
related to the use of  Federal and
military lands in the Baltimore subre-
gion.  The report states  that, "despite
the more than  840 miles of shoreline
in the Baltimore SMSA, less than 1.5
percent of the shoreline is available for
public  recreational use."  Also,  the
Baltimore Regional Planning Council's
document, "Chesapeake Bay:  Shore-
line Utilization in  the  Baltimore  Re-
gion," reports  that 12 percent of the
Baltimore regional shoreline is in mili-
tary use. Although it is recognized that
it is not possible to open  all of these
military lands to the public for recrea-
tional use, the fact remains that they
represent a very significant untapped
resource.

Watersheds and water supply reservoirs
also offer significant potential for mul-
tiple  uses. Many of the water supply
reservoirs and  their adjacent lands are
located on  attractive, wooded upland
sites   which  offer  the  potential  for
swimming,  boating,  picnicking,  and
camping. In the  past, public  health
constraints,  administrative policy  and
public opinion have  discouraged or
prevented joint  use  of water supply
 reservoirs.  However, existing restric-
tions should be reexamined in the light
 of modern water treatment technology
 to determine if they are essential.

 Land adjacent to river channels can
 also  serve as  a substantial additional
 resource  base  to  meet  recreation
 needs. The use of flood plain lands in
 urban areas for a variety of quality
 recreational experiences may also pre-
 clude  development  on  those flood
 plains and  thus  reduce  future flood
 losses. Harbor redevelopment and mul-
 tiple  use of waterfront areas in urban
 centers is another valuable  source of
recreation lands. These multi-use areas,
which  in many cases  have become
rundown  and  underutilized,  could
prove especially significant  as  recrea-
tion areas since they are adjacent  to
large populations.

Another  excellent  opportunity   to
meet outdoor recreation needs in the
Chesapeake  Bay Study Area  is the
further  development of wild and sce-
nic and  recreational  river  systems.
Rivers  preserved in their natural free-
flowing state  offer a wide variety  of
recreational  potential for such activi-
ties as canoeing, kayaking, rafting, and
boating. In addition, the scenic vistas
usually  located  near these rivers can
provide  ample  opportunity  for  out-
door recreation  pursuits including pic-
nicking and  camping. The States  of
Maryland and Virginia have enacted
legislation aimed at the protection  of
some of the wild and scenic rivers
within  their  State boundaries. Mary-
land adopted a  policy which protects
the water quality of certain designated
rivers within the State and fulfills vital
conservation purposes by wise use of
resources within the scenic river sys-
tem. Currently, eight rivers have been
designated as scenic within the State.
The Virginia General  Assembly  en-
acted the Scenic Rivers Act in 1970 to
help coordinate efforts between  Fed-
eral and State agencies  to insure com-
prehensive water resource planning. To
date,  10  Virginia rivers  have  been
designated either scenic  or  potential
scenic  rivers. The  former group will
thus be protected for the enjoyment
of present and future generations.


Public  acquisition  of  new  land for
recreational  use is  frequently neces-
sary, particularly in urban areas, where
demand is  great and existing recrea-
tional areas may be in extremely short
supply. To  accomplish such  acquisi-
tion, funding at all levels  of  govern-
ment will have  to be increased, partic-
ularly in view of the escalating price of
land.

 An alternative to the costly purchase
 of new recreation lands is  the expan-
 sion, intensification  of use, and im-
 provement of existing recreation lands.
 In taking such action, however, care is
 required  to   avoid  creating  over-
 crowded conditions or befouling recre-
 ational  facilities to  the point where
 42

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they  can  no longer be  enjoyed by
anyone.  Many of the existing recrea-
tional  facilities within or adjacent to
the Bay Region's urban areas are in
particular  need  of intensification  of
use, where physically possible.

Three  legislative  measures have been
found  most effective in implementing
a program of preserving, maintaining,
and acquiring recreation lands to  sat-
isfy future outdoor recreation needs.
These  include zoning, which  imposes
land use restrictions; tax incentives to
preserve  open space  lands for public
use; and eminent  domain which con-
demns private land for public use. By
use of these three legislative  actions,
lands can be  obtained or preserved for
recreational use before residential or
commercial  development  pressures
occur.  For example,  in areas where
vacation homes are popular, residential
development  around a  community
waterfront park area  could be encour-
aged  to  facilitate maximum use and
benefit  from waterfront lands. Prop-
erly  planned and spaced  marinas,  a
legitimate  use   of waterfront  lands,
could be gjven a higher  priority than
shopping centers,  for example, at the
water's edge. Commercial development
not  dependent  upon  water  access
could be located inland.

Meeting all  future outdoor recreation
needs may not  be an entirely desirable
goal.  As discussed in the "Problems
and Conflicts  Section" above,  recrea-
tion  in the Bay  Region has created
certain problems including water pol-
lution, conflicts in use of the aquatic
environment,  and overcrowding  of
waterways.  As  future recreation de-
mands increase, these  problems can
also be  expected to  increase. By pro-
viding alternative  outdoor recreation
opportunities,  however,  the  intensity
of these  problems can be reduced. In
addition,  the  provision of recreation
alternatives would serve to help meet
the  recreation  needs  in  the Study
Area.
One important alternative means for
meeting recreation  needs is the devel-
opment  of  recreation  trails  which
would substantially  add to  the re-
source base  in  the  Chesapeake  Bay
area. Because of the rich archeological,
historical, and natural resources of the
Bay Region, a trail system might in-
clude  biking  or  hiking  trails which
would perhaps contribute to the tour-
ism  industry. The scenic rivers and
their  adjacent shoreline  areas could
provide  opportunity  for recreation
pursuits ranging from nature walks to
birdwatching.   Outdoor   games  and
sports  such as tennis, golf, and horse-
back riding are other possible  alterna-
tive means to help satisfy future recre-
ational demands in Chesapeake Bay.
                                                                                                                 43

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         SECTION III
           NAVIGATION

CURRENT STATUS

Transportation  by water has changed
drastically  since Colonial times when
oceangoing 500-ton sailing ships with
10- to 15-foot  drafts plied the Chesa-
peake docking at individual plantation
piers.   Water-based   transportation,
however, has remained extremely im-
portant to the Chesapeake  Bay  Re-
gion's  economy. A total of approxi-
mately 160 million short tons of cargo
was shipped on Chesapeake Bay during
1974,  nearly three-quarters of a  ton
for each man, woman, and child in the
United States.  About 80 percent of
this freight passed through the ports of
Baltimore  or Hampton  Roads.  Ap-
proximately  70 percent  of the  total
freight traffic in these  two ports is
foreign in origin or destination. Balti-
more is basically an. importing port.
The  major commodities  coming into
Baltimore are metallic ores and con-
centrates, petroleum  and petroleum
products, gypsum, sugar, iron and steel
products, salt, and motor vehicles and
motor vehicle  equipment.  The  port
leads the  Nation in the importing of
automobiles and ranks second  in iron
ore.  The majority of these imported
bulk  commodities  are processed  by
firms in the Baltimore area.

Hampton Roads, on the other hand, is
an   export-oriented  port.  Approxi-
mately 70 percent of the total freight
tonnage  passing  through  Hampton
Roads in 1974  was coal and lignite to
be exported. Hampton Roads leads the
Nation in  this category. The  port's.
location  in relation to the coal-rich
Central Appalachians gives the port a
locational  advantage  over  the other
East Coast ports in the coal exporting
business.  Hampton Roads also con-
ducts important trade in the exporting
of corn, wheat,  soybeans, tobacco leaf,
and  grain mill products,  as well as in
the importing of petroleum products,
gypsum,  lumber and  wood products,
and chemicals.
These two Nationally significant ports
also' have important impacts on  the
regional  economies.  For  example,
according to  the  Maryland Port Ad-
ministration (MPA),  65,000 workers
are directly employed by port activi-
ties in the Baltimore area and another
100,000  in "port-related" industries.
A similar study in Virginia for all  the
Virginia ports revealed that more than
53,000 people were directly employed
by  port-related activities and another
142,000  by "harbor-oriented" activi-
ties including naval installations.

Although  Baltimore  and  Hampton
Roads are the only major international
deepwater  ports  in  the Chesapeake
Bay Area, there  is also a significant
amount  of traffic in the  harbors of
some of the  smaller  ports such as
Richmond,   Yorktown,   Hopewell,
Petersburg, and Alexandria, Virginia;
Piney Point, Annapolis, Salisbury,  and
Cambridge,  Maryland; and  Washing-
ton,  D.C. The  major  commodities
shipped through these ports are petro-
leum and  petroleum products, con-
struction materials, fertilizers, and sea-
food.

Due to the increasing size of oceango-
ing vessels during the past 100 years
and the  economies involved in the use
of these ships,  repeated deepenings
and widenings  of Chesapeake Bay's
ship channels have been necessary. In
the Port of Baltimore, for example,
there have been  many  improvements
made by the Federal government, the
most  notable  being the  authorized
deepenings to 27 feet in 1881, 35 feet
in 1905, 37 feet  in 1930, 39 feet in
 1945, and  42  feet  in  1958. More
recently, Congress has  authorized an
 additional deepening of the main chan-
 nels  to  50 feet.  In  Hampton  Roads
 there  have also  been  numerous im-
 provements of the area's many chan-
 nels, starting in 1884. The main chan-
 nel into Hampton Roads was deepened
 for the  first time in  1907 to 30  feet,
 again in 1910 to 35 feet, in 1917 to 40
 feet, and finally in 1965 to 45 feet.


In the Chesapeake Bay and its tribu-
taries there are a total of 147 author-
ized  navigation  projects  under  the
supervision of the Baltimore and Nor-
folk  Districts of the Corps of Engi-
neers. The State  of Maryland  has
constructed 16 navigation projects in
the Chesapeake  Bay and tributaries.
There are no State projects in Virginia.

Due to the high sediment loads present
throughout most of the Chesapeake
Bay system, many of the ship channels
are in frequent  need  of dredging  to
maintain authorized depths. The fre-
quency of maintenance dredging  de-
pends  on  the  location of the water-
way.  Some waterways, such  as the
James   River,  require  maintenance
almost every year. On the other hand,
the  Rappahannock  Shoal  Channel
(part  of the  Baltimore  Harbor and
Channels Project) has  not been main-
tained since its deepening to 42 feet in
1964.

Two types of dredge material disposal
have generally  been used in' the past in
Chesapeake Bay—open water disposal
and disposal in dyked impoundments..
In the Upper Bay, open water disposal
has been used.  Uncontaminated dredge
material was generally placed near the
northern shore of Kent Island while
contaminated material was disposed of
in the  Pooles Island area. In the lower
Bay, the Craney Island Disposal Area
has been  used for  all major  dredge
disposal operations  for the Hampton
Roads channels.  The  Craney Island
site, constructed in  1957, is a Feder-
ally-authorized project located.in the
heart  of  the  Hampton  Roads  port
complex.  The  dyked  area,  which
covers about  2,500  acres and has a
capacity  of about 125 million cubic
yards,, is expected to be filled to  its
design height  of 17 feet above mean
sea level by about 1980.
EXISTING PROBLEMS AND
CONFLICTS

The major problems and conflicts rela-
tive  to  navigation  and  waterborne
commerce  in the Bay Region include:

   a. The need for deeper channels to
accommodate the larger ships now in
the world fleet.

   b. The  maintenance  of  existing
 channel depths because of sedimenta-
 tion and shoaling.

   c. The disposal of dredge material
from both the  maintenance and the
deepening of channel projects.
44

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   d. Accidental  and deliberate  dis-
 charges  of wastes  from  commercial
 and recreational craft.

   e. Shoreline erosion caused by the
 wakes from large ships.

   f. Conflicts  between   recreational
 boating  and  commercial  ships in or
 near the major ship channels.

   g. Need for additional waterfront
 lands to accommodate expanding port
 facilities.

 The  first  two  problems mentioned
 above stem from a basic confrontation
 between  man's  water transportation
 requirements  and the Bay's geological
 nature.  For   example,  because  the
 Chesapeake Bay is a relatively shallow
 body of water, major channel deepen-
 ing projects designed to accommodate
 today's  larger, more efficient ships
 require extensive dredging. In addition
 to the natural shallowness of the Bay,
 Nature's tendency to fill the Estuarine
 system with sediments and to convert
 it back to a riverine system  causes
 many existing channels to experience
 shoaling   problems.  Dredging  and
 dredged  material disposal operations
 are  consequently  an important  and
 necessary  part  of commercial naviga-
 tion activities on Chesapeake Bay and
 its  tributaries.   The  environmental
 impact of these operations has become
 a very controversial issue. The  princi-
 pal  environmental effects of the actual
 dredging operation are:
    1. Removal by either dredging or
 filling of the original interface between
 the water and the bottom, which can
 be an area of high biological activity.
 In most cases., the effects of removal
 of the existing sediment-water inter-
 face are usually localized and  of rela-
 tively  short duration. The  circulation
 patterns  of the  Bay's waters  usually
 provide  opportunities for the reestab-
 lishment of  available  species within
 one or two years. It should be empha-
 sized,  however,  that  exceptions  do
 occur  (e.g., oysters  because  of their
 need for a hard bottom) and that a
 thorough analysis should be conducted
 if complications are to be avoided.

    2. Changes in  bottom contours,
' which may affect current and  salinity
 patterns. In  general,  the creation of
deepwater  areas  causes  further  salt-
water  intrusion.  Saltwater intrusion
can cause complex changes in an estu-
ary's  ecosystem.  These changes  may
involve both beneficial influences such
as the improved upstream transport of
young crabs, fish, and other species as
well as detrimental  impacts such as
greater penetration of oyster predators
and parasites. The net  effect will  vary
with the location and magnitude of
the dredging activity  as well  as the
season.

   3.  Turbidity  caused  by dredging
can  create  various  problems.  Sus-
pended sediments can clog and damage
the gills of many  kinds of animals,
reduce  photosynthetic activity,  and
reduce the buoyancy of eggs of marine
animals.  As  the  sediments settle, a
coating  may  form  on  the bottom
interfering  with  the  attachment of
young oysters to the beds and creating
soft • bottom layers that are uninhabit-
able for many benthic  species. On the
other hand, such sediments frequently
occur naturally in estuaries and coastal
waters, and many species can tolerate
considerable  quantities of suspended
material. Sediments  can  also be  ben-
eficial  to many types of organisms by
providing the type of substrate needed
by some  animals  and  by carrying
nutrients into the marine system.
With regard to the problems associated
with the disposal of dredged material,
the major channels for Baltimore and
Hampton Roads  and the  approach
channels to  the Chesapeake and Dela-
ware  Canal  are  by  far the  major
problem areas. If for no other reason,
the sheer volume of material that must
be  removed  during  either  periodic
maintenance  or  an overall deepening
of these major projects creates disposal
problems. There are  also significant
environmental  problems  associated
with dredged material disposal.
Perhaps  the  most  .serious  environ-
mental  problem,  and  certainly the
most  emotional,  occurs  when the
dredged material is  contaminated by
industrial  or municipal  wastes. Heavy
metals,  such  as  mercury, zinc, and
lead,  along  with such  substances  as
pesticides  and nutrient  salts can have
harmful  and  even toxic effects  on
aquatic life.  There  is  very  limited
information  on  how available such
materials become to the marine envi-
ronment in  various  chemical  forms
once  they  reenter  the  water.  For
example,  heavy  metal contaminants
may be tightly bound to the sediment
particles physically or chemically, or
at the  other extreme, simply dissolved
in the  water mixed with the sediment.
The soon  to  be completed  Dredged
Material Research Program being con-
ducted at  the  Corps of Engineers
Waterways Experiment Station (WES)
in Vicksburg, Mississippi, is conducting
research into these types of problems.
Another source of  conflict  between
waterborne commerce  activities and
environmental quality is the deliberate
discharge or accidental spilling by ves-
sels of oil, garbage, sewage, and other
wastes  into the  Bay. Unfortunately,
these discharges and spills often occur
in congested harbor  areas with poor
flushing action which causes further
degradation  of  often  already  poor
water  quality. Although  the  Federal
Water  Pollution Control Act Amend-
ments  of  1972 (P.L. 92-500) prohibit
the discharge of harmful quantities of
oil or  hazardous substances  in the
waters of  the United States, there is
probably no practical way to  stop the
element of human error. A valve not
completely closed, a lack of attention
while  filling tanks,  or worst of all,
tanker collisions, could have disastrous
environmental, as well as economic,
consequences.

Waterborne commerce-related  activi-
ties can also have significant impacts
on other  aspects  and  uses  of the
Chesapeake Bay  resource. First, the
wave action caused by passing ships is
a major cause of erosion in some areas
of the Bay. Second, recreational fish-
ing and boating can be disrupted by
the wakes from passing ships. In addi-
tion, large areas  of the Bay  and its
tidal tributaries  are  precluded from
recreational uses because of their use
as anchorages, ship channels, or dredge
disposal areas by  commercial naviga-
tion interests and/or the military. On
the other  hand, large commercial and
military vessels must be constantly on
the alert for the smaller recreational
vessels  to  avoid collisions or swamp-
ings. Lastly,  the  development  of a
major  port is dependent on the con-
current development  of land-based
                                                                                                                 45

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port-related  facilities.  However,  the
development of shoreline land for ter-
minal  facilities may  in some cases
conflict with existing wetlands or pro-
posed  recreational  use  of the same
land. Also, port-related  facilities, be-
cause of their locational requirements,
may be subject to tidal flooding  and
shoreline erosion.
EXISTING AND
PROJECTED DEMANDS

The  following sections present the
projected waterborne  commerce de-
mands on a commodity group basis for
the  individual ports and  waterways
considered in this study. Due  to the
type of'analysis,  it was considered to
be appropriate that additional exist-
ing information also be presented with
the projected demands.

In addition to the Ports of Baltimore
and Hampton Roads, projections were
prepared  for  those  Chesapeake Bay
waterways  with  over  200,000 short
tons of commence in 1970. Because of
the differences in relative importance
to the Chesapeake Bay Region and the
Nation of  the  various  harbors and
waterways  included in this analysis,
projections  were  made  to varying de-
grees of detail. Baltimore and  Hamp-
ton Roads were analyzed in depth on a
commodity group and  in some cases
an individual commodity basis. On the
other hand, projections for several of
the  smaller waterways (in  terms of
tonnages) were made for two  groups
only-bulk  oil and  the total  of all
other commodity groups.

There  are  essentially three types of
waterborne  movements  addressed in
this  analysis-foreign,  coastwise, and
internal. Foreign  imports and exports
refer to traffic between the  United
States and foreign  ports.  Coastwise
receipts   and  shipments   apply  to
domestic traffic  receiving  a carriage
over the ocean, or the Gulf of Mexico
(e.g., New Orleans or Puerto Rico to
Baltimore). Internal receipts and ship-
ments are  confined to inland water-
ways such as Chesapeake Bay.

   a. Baltimore Harbor: As shown in
Figure 22,  bulk  commodities,  especi-
ally  petroleum and  ore, are expected
to continue to  dominate waterborne
traffic in the Port of Baltimore. Gen-
eral  cargo  movements,  however, are
expected to increase significantly over
the projection period so that by 2020
the tonnage moved is expected to be
higher than  any  other  single com-
modity category.

The  industrial, commercial, and resi-
dential  complex  surrounding  Balti-
more  consumes  huge  amounts  of
petroleum  fuels for heating,  process-
ing,  and transportation purposes. The
most important bulk oil commodities
are residual fuel, gasoline, and distil-
late fuel. Approximately 90 percent of
the bulk oil movements were inbound
from the Caribbean area, the U.S. Gulf
Coast, or  the Delaware  River. The
remainder  were  barge  shipments,
mostly to  points  within  Chesapeake
Bay.  The tankers from the Caribbean
areas are  typically in the 25-55,000
deadweight ton (dwt) size with up to
39-foot drafts. Tankers from the Gulf
Coast range in size up to  75,000 dwt
with 42-foot drafts.

Baltimore's large primary metals indus-
try is dominated  by the Bethlehem
Steel  Corporation,  which employs
roughly three-quarters of  the workers
in the industry. As a result, about 93
percent of the metallic ore imports in
1972 consisted of iron ore used in the
production of steel. The ships carrying
iron ore into  Baltimore are the largest
that call on the Port. The  average iron
ore  vessel  is  in  the  40-60,000 dwt
range with 38  to 42-foot  drafts. Ves-
sels of this size use the existing 42-foot
channel  to  the  maximum  extent.
Occasionally   vessels  of   well  over
100,000  dwt  bring iron ore into the
Port  although they  are  not able to
fully load due to channel depth restric-
tions. Aluminum, manganese, chro-
mium, and other non-ferrous ores and
concentrates comprise the remaining 7
percent of metallic ore imports. Im-
ports of non-ferrous  metals are pro-
jected to increase at the same rate as
iron ore imports.


Because of its proximity to the Appa-
lachian coal  fields in northern West
Virginia and Pennsylvania, Baltimore is
one of the leading coal exporting ports
in  the United States. Approximately
90 percent of the coal shipped out of
Baltimore is used in the production of
coke  for  foreign  steel  industries,
mainly in  Japan and Western Europe.
The  remainder  is  used  in  electric
power.generation.  The average vessel
exporting coal out of Baltimore is in
the 35-55,000 dwt range with 37 to
42-foot drafts, although bulk coal car-
riers up to 120,000 dwt with 47-foot
drafts have called on the Port. Again,
due  to  channel  depth   restrictions,
these vessels  are not  able to load to
capacity.

In 1972, Baltimore exported approxi-
mately 2.9 million short tons of grain,
although the average annual export for
the last 5 years of record was only 1.5
million short tons. The major types of
grain exported in 1972 were corn (45
percent) soybeans and soybean meal
(40 percent), and wheat (13  percent).
Over two-thirds  of the grain  exported
from Baltimore  in 1972  was destined
for Western  Europe.  Because of the
relatively  small  volumes  of  grain
exported through Baltimore, the aver-
age size  vessel calling on  the Port for
grain (15-30,000 dwt with 28 to 35-
foot  drafts)  is significantly smaller
than  the standard world fleet grain .
carriers.  Occasionally, however, much
larger  vessels  enter the Port to load
grain for export.

The miscellaneous  bulk  category for
Baltimore Harbor contains such com-
modities as gypsum, sugar, sa)t, molas-
ses,  sulfuric  acid, and fertilizer prod-
ucts.   Approximately 72 percent  of
the movements  of these  commodities
in 1972, were foreign imports with an
additional  17  percent  classified  as
domestic receipts.  Practically all  of
these inbound movements were raw or
partially processed materials shipped
to Baltimore for further processing by
factories in the Port area. These activi-
ties  are  especially  important to the
local economy because they generate
jobs  and income.  Except  for  sugar
imports, which are expected to remain
constant  over  the projection period,
the  other commodities in the miscel-
laneous bulk category are projected to
exhibit moderate increases in the level
of shipments. The vessels carrying mis-
cellaneous bulk commodities are not
as large as  those  carrying petroleum,
coal, ore, or grain. The largest vessels
are about 35,000  dwt with  up to  37
foot  drafts but the average  is much
smaller.

Approximately two-thirds of the total
general cargo commerce  through the
 46

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Figure 22:  Projected Waterborne Commerce - Baltimore Harbor
       Bulk Petroleum
       (Inbound only)
       (Millions of Short Tons)
                General Cargo
                (Millions of Short Tons)
                                               Miscellaneous Bulk
                                               (Millions of Short Tons)
  Bulk Ore
  (Imports)
  (Millions of Short Tons;
                                                         Bulk Coal
                                                         (Exports)
                                                         (Millions of Short Tons)
Figure 23:  Projected Waterborne Commerce - Hampton Roads
     Bulk Grain
     (Exports)
     (Millions of Short Tons)
    Bulk Oil
    (Inbound Only)
    (Millions of Short Tons)

              8.3    5.3
8.3
             Miscellaneous Bulk
             (Millions of Short Tons)
                                                       4.6
             General Cargo
             (Foreign Only)
             (Millions jf Short Tons)
Bulk Coal
(Exports)
                                                        (Millions of Short Tons)    S5 4   55.4
                                                                                                                        47

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Port in 1972 was foreign in origin or
destination.  All  of  the increase  in
waterborne movements of these com-
modities  is  expected to  be foreign
traffic. The majority of the projected
general cargo commerce is expected to
be   containerized.   Domestic  move-
ments of  general cargo are  not  ex-
pected to increase over the projection
period due to stiff competition from
railroads and trucks in the movement
of  often  time-sensitive  general cargo
commodities. The major foreign and
domestic  general cargo commodities
shipped through Baltimore are listed in
Table 24.  Most of the container ships
currently  calling on  Baltimore are in
the  15,000-20,000   dwt range  with
drafts between 28 to 32 feet.
   b. Hampton  Roads:   Figure  23
shows  that  the  export of  coal  will
continue   to  dominate   waterborne
commerce    during   the  projection
period. As in  the case of Baltimore,
general cargo movements are expected
to  show  highly  significant  increases
over the projection period. Waterborne
movements  of commodities  in  the
remaining  categories  are  expected to
decrease slightly  or show only mod-
erate  increases over  the projection
period.

The   most  important  commodities
within the bulk oil group were residual
fuel,  gasoline,  and distillate fuel,  ac-
counting for about 92 percent of the
bulk   oil   waterborne movements in
1972. Approximately three-quarters of
the bulk oil passing through the port
complex is either foreign or domestic
inbound. Most of the remaining move-
ments consist of petroleum distributed
from  Hampton  Roads  by  barge to
points within  Chesapeake Bay.  The
major reason for the  projected decline
in the level of inbound bulk oil move-
ments to  Hampton Roads is  the ex-
pected significant planned cutbacks in
residual fuel use by public utilities.
This type of use accounted for approx-
imately one-half  of  the  total petro-
leum consumption in the area in 1972.
Increases in  gasoline and distillate fuel
movements  are  expected  to  almost
offset the decreases in residual use.

Vessels carrying bulk oil commodities
into   Hampton Roads  are  generally
about the  same size as those calling on
the  Port  of  Baltimore  (i.e., up to
                             TABLE 24
               MAJOR GENERAL CARGO COMMODITIES
          AND TYPE OF TRAFFIC, BALTIMORE HARBOR, 1972
          Foreign

Bananas and Plantains (I)

Lumber (I)

Metal Products (I & E)

Standard Newsprint (I)

Miscellaneous Chemicals 0 & E)

Cars and Other Transportation
   Equipment (I & E)

Machinery (I & E)

Other Miscellaneous

        Total


          Domestic

Metal Products (S)

Miscellaneous Chemicals (S)

Agricultural, Food, and Marine
   Products (R & S)

Lumber (R)

Other Miscellaneous

         Total

I = Imports   • E = Exports
           Tons
         (Thousands)

             383

             380

           1,272

             100

             294


             500

             285

           1,301

           4,515
            1,175

             216


             174

              86

             514
            2,165

R = Receipts     S = Shipments
                             TABLE 25
           MAJOR FOREIGN GENERAL CARGO COMMODITIES
            AND TYPE OF TRAFFIC, HAMPTON ROADS, 1972
 Lumber, Veneer, Plywood, and
    Other Wood Products (I & E)

 Tobacco Leaf (I & E)

 Machinery (I & E)

 Motor Vehicles (I & E)

 Basic Textile Products (I & E)

 Metal Products (I & E)

 Pulp and Paper Products (I & E)

 Vegetable Oils, Margarine,
    Shortening (E)

 Miscellaneous Chemicals (I & E)

 Other Miscellaneous

         TOTAL

 I = Imports     E = Exports
                                          Tons
                                       (Thousands)
              246

              233

              156

              103

              131

              268

              118


               88

               88

              897
Percent
of Total

   8.5

   8.4

  28.3

   2.2

   6.5


  11.1

 .  6.3

  28.7

  100.0
  54.2

  10.0


    8.0

    4.0

  23.8

  100.0
                                Percent
                                of Total
   10.6

   10.0

    6.7

    4.4

    5.6

   11.5

    5.1


    3.8

    3.8

   38.5
             2,328
  100.0
48

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75,000 dwt with 42-foot drafts from
the Gulf Coast refineries and usually
between  25-55,000 dwt with up to
39-foot  drafts  from the Caribbean).
These vessels,  however, can normally
enter Hampton Roads loaded to  a
deeper draft due  to  deeper channel
depths, higher tidal range,  and higher
salinities.

Hampton Roads  is the most strategi-
cally located port in the United States
with respect to the rich Appalachian
coal fields. Hampton Roads annually
accounts for about 90 percent of the
total U.S.  overseas export. Approxi-
mately 90  percent of the coal exports
leaving  Hampton Roads  consist of
bituminous coal for the production of
coke for metallurgical purposes with
the  remainder being used for electric
power generation. About one-half of
these exports in 1972 were shipped to
Japan with the majority of the remain-
der  going  to  Western Europe.  The
average size vessel carrying  coal out of
Hampton Roads  is in the  50-75,000
dwt  range with  38-46-foot  drafts.
However, vessels of over 100,000 dwt
are not uncommon. The largest ship to
ever call on the port was  a vessel of
169,430  dwt which loaded coal bound
for  Japan. Due to depth restrictions,
the vessel could not fully load.

Although far behind export coal, bulk
grain is  the  second  largest  export
commodity passing through Hampton
Roads. Most of  the  grains exported
through  the port  were grown in the
Midwestern and South Atlantic states
and  are generally  shipped to Western
and  Eastern European countries.  The
major types of grains handled are corn,
wheat,  and  soybeans  and soybean
meal. Due  to the  relatively small vol-
umes of  export   grain handled at
Hampton Roads, the vessels carrying
these commodities are significantly
smaller than those handling coal. The
average vessel is in the 25-35,000 dwt
range  with  32  to  26-foot  drafts,
although  ships  in the 100,000  dwt
class occasionally call on the port.


Sand, gravel,  and crushed rock ac-
counted  for almost one-half  of the
total movements in the miscellaneous
bulk category. Other  important com-
modities   are   limestone,   building
cement,  and   fertilizers.   The   com-
 modities in this  category are raw or
 partially-processed  materials shipped
 into Hampton Roads from foreign and
 domestic  sources for further process-
 ing (most by factories in the port area)
 or for distribution without processing.
 Movements  of  sand,  gravel,   and
 crushed rock are by barge while vessels
 carrying the other commodities gen-
 erally   average   around  15,000  to
 20,000 dwt  with drafts of approxi-
 mately 30 feet. Slightly over 80 per-
 cent of the total general cargo traffic
 was  categorized  as   either  foreign
 imports or exports. About 60 percent
 of the foreign traffic was containerized
 in  1970.  These container  vessels are
 generally in the 15,000 to 20,000 dwt
 range with drafts of between 28 to 32
feet. Table 25 lists the major foreign
cargo  commodities passing  through
Hampton Roads.

  c. Chesapeake and Delaware Canal.
Commerce through the C&D Canal is
dominated by domestic movements of
bulk oil and  foreign  movements  of
general  cargo  which  together  ac-
counted for approximately 70 percent
of the total traffic in 1972. The C&D
Canal serves as a major passageway for
oceangoing  vessels  calling  at  Balti-
more. In 1972, approximately 58 per-
cent of the vessels engaged in foreign
 traffic destined  for or leaving Balti-
 more traveled through the C&D Canal.
Figure 24 shows the projected levels of
 commerce  for bulk oil and general
 cargo.  Both types of  traffic are pro-
jected to show moderate increases over
the projection period.

In  addition to bulk  oil and general
cargo,  there are  significantly smaller
quantities of bulk coal, bulk ore, bulk
grain,  and miscellaneous bulk com-
modities  passing  through  the C&D
Canal.  These movements were assumed
 to  remain constant during  the pro-
jection period at the  1965-1972 aver-
 age  of about 1.1 million  short tons
 although the potential exists for sub-
 stantial increases  if a  significant num-
 ber  of  Northeastern  power plants
 switch to coal.

   d. James River.  Major  flows  of
 traffic on the James River consist of
 internal barge receipts of bulk oil at
 Richmond, Hopewell, and the Virginia
 Electric and Power Company's Ches-
 terfield power plant and internal barge
movements of commodities other than
bulk  oil  (mostly sand  and gravel).
These two traffic flows accounted for
84 percent of the total waterborne
movements on the James in 1972.

Figure 25  shows  the  projections  of
bulk  oil and  internal  shipments for
commodities other than  bulk oil for
the James.  These two commodity cate-
gories  are  expected to  continue  to
dominate   James  River  waterborne
commerce  in the future accounting for
over 90 percent of the total traffic in
the year 2020.

There  were  also oceangoing  move-
ments of chemicals and general cargo
commodities  passing  through  Rich-
mond  and Hopewell  which totaled
about 500,000 short tons in 1972 but
averaged   740,000  tons  over  the
1970-72   period.  Total  oceangoing
commerce  is assumed to remain con-
stant at approximately 740,000 short
tons over the projection period.

The oceangoing general  cargo vessels
calling at  James River ports average
about 5,000 dwt with about 22-foot
drafts, although there are some vessels
up to 12,000  dwt with loaded  drafts
of 30 feet. Most of the dry cargo ships
and tankers handling chemicals are in
the  20,000  dwt  class  with  loaded
drafts of over 30 feet.  Since the main
channel  to the  Richmond-Hopewell
area has an authorized depth of only
25 feet, the larger vessels are not able
to load to capacity.
   e. Potomac River: Traffic on the
Potomac is  dominated by  the move-
ment of bulk oil into the River to help
satisfy  the  Washington  Metropolitan
Area's tremendous demand for energy.
This type  of traffic accounted  for
approximately 87 percent of the total
commerce on the Potomac in 1972.
Most of the remaining traffic consisted
of internal barge  movements of  sand
and gravel  to  the  Washington  area
from points along the Potomac River
and foreign imports of newsprint into
Alexandria, Virginia.

Waterborne  bulk oil commodities des-
tined for  Washington are handled by
the  Steuart  Petroleum   Company's
facility  at  Piney  Point,  Maryland,
approximately 13  miles upstream from
the confluence of the Potomac  with
                                                                                                               49

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Chesapeake  Bay.   Large  oceangoing
tankers,  most in the 25-55,000 dwt
size  range with  between  35 and  38-
foot  drafts, as  well  as barges from
domestic  sources,  carry  petroleum
products  into  the  Steuart   facility
where they are unloaded and redistrib-
uted  by  pipeline  and barge  to  the
Washington, D.C., and Southern Mary-
land  areas. The Possum Point power
plant, owned  by VEPCO, is the only
major petroleum products user on the
river which has fuel sent directly to its
plant,  bypassing   the  Piney Point
facility.

Despite expected significant decreases
in residual fuel use by power plants in
the  Washington area, the  total pro-
jected bulk oil imports  and  receipts at
Piney Point illustrated in Figure  26
indicate a sizable increase in bulk oil
movements on the Potomac over the
next fifty years. This is due to large
projected  increases   in  waterborne
imports and receipts of gasoline, distil-
late fuel, and  other "clean" petroleum
products expected as a result of higher
than average  increases in income and
population in the Washington  area in
the future.
 Traffic  other  than bulk  oil  on the
 River is expected to remain at a fairly
 constant 500,000  short tons  during
 the projection period.
    f. York River.  The largest oil refin-
  ery  in the Chesapeake Bay  Region is
  located near the  mouth of the York
  River  at  Yorktown.  Although  the
  50,000 barrel/day refinery is not large
  by  Delaware  River  or Gulf  Coast
  standards where plants with capacities
  of 200,000  barrels/day are not un-
  common, the  facility  still  accounted
  for  almost five million short tons of
  waterborne  petroleum  commerce in
  1972. Total  waterborne commerce on
  the  York River in 1972 totaled 6.5
  million short tons of which bulk oil
  commodities  accounted  for approxi-
  mately 89 percent of the total. Other
  major users of bulk oil include a power
  plant  at  Yorktown,  the only  major
  pulp and paper mill in the Chesapeake
  Bay  Region at West Point, Virginia,
  and the U.S. Navy at Cheatham. Total
  bulk oil  projections are presented in
        Bulk Oil
        (Domestic Only)
        (Millions of Short Tons)
Figure 24:  Projected Waterborne Commerce - Chesapeake and Delaware Canal

Figure 25:  Projected Waterbome Commerce • James River
      Bulk Oil
      (Internal Receipts)
      (Millions of Short Tons)
Internal Traffic
(Other Than Bulk Oil)
(Millions of Short Tons)
Figure 26: Projected Waterborne Bulk
       Oil Commerce • Potomac River.
 Figure 2 7: Projected Waterborne Bulk
           Oil Commerce - York River.
  Potomac River
  Bulk Oil
  (Millions of Short Tons)
              (1980 ^H2000l
   York River
   Bulk Oil
   (Millions of Short Tons)
                                                                    17.4
      1972 ^•1980 ^H 2000 ^M2020
 50

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Figure  27. The capacity of the York-
town refinery is projected to increase
to approximately 170,000 barrels/day
by 2020.
Most of  the vessels  carrying crude
petroleum into the Yorktown refinery
are  in  the  70,000  dwt  class with
41-foot drafts. These ships are  unable
to fully load due to depth restrictions
in the York River  approach channel.

   g.  Other   Waterways.   The
Wicomico, Nanticoke, and  Rappahan-
nock Rivers are expected to continue
to be dominated by inbound barge
movements  of bulk oil. As shown in
Figure 28, the Rappahannock River is
expected  to  experience by  far  the
most significant  increases  in bulk  oil
movements of these  three waterways
mainly due to "spillover" into the area
from the fast-growing Washington Met-
ropolitan   Area.  The Wicomico  and
Nanticoke  Rivers  are  expected  to
experience only moderate increases in
bulk oil  movements over  the projec-
tion period. Of these three rivers, only
the  Rappahannock has any significant
movements of commodities other than
bulk oil.  About 40  percent  of  the
commerce on the  river consisted  of
industrial  chemicals,  pulpwood  and
seafood.  Movements  of these com-
modities  on  the Rappahannock  are
assumed  to remain  constant  at  the
 1970-1972   level  of  approximately
 170,000 short tons.

Virtually  all  of the traffic  on  the
Choptank River (including the Tred
Avon River) was inbound, with about
 10 percent being foreign  oceangoing
imports and the remainder classified as
internal barge receipts in  1972. Bulk
oil commodities accounted for a rela-
tively small 40  percent of the total
waterborne commerce.  Other impor-
tant  commodity flows on  the Chop-
tank include  slag (used for construc-
tion purposes), fertilizer, and fresh fish
shipped from Iceland to Cambridge  for
processing.  The  majority of the pro-
jected increase in total traffic on the
Choptank River, illustrated in  Figure
28, is accounted for by increases  in
traffic other than bulk oil or fresh fish.
 Bulk oil  movements are expected to
 show only moderate increases while
imports of fresh fish are projected to
Figure 28:  Projected Waterborne Commerce for Selected Commodities-Wicomico,
           Nanticoke, Rappahannock, and Choptank and Tred Avon Rivers
                                            Wicomico River
                                            Bulk Oil
                                            (Millions of Short Tons)
    Rappahannock River
    Bulk Oil
    (Millions of Short Tons)
                    1.0
                                            Nanticoke River
                                            Bulk Oil
                                            (Millions of Short Tons)
Choptank and
Tred Avon Rivers
Total Commerce
(Millions of Short Tons)
           1972
                             1980
                                                                 2020
                                 TABLE 26
             FEDERALLY AUTHORIZED MAIN CHANNEL DEPTHS AT
         SELECTED PORTS AND WATERWAYS, CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
                Port or Waterway

       Baltimore Harbor and Channels
       Hampton Roads
       York River Entrance Channel
       York River (to West Point)
       James River (to Richmond)
       Wicomico River (to Salisbury)
       Nanticoke River (to Seaford)
       Rappahannock River (to Fredericksburg)
       Choptank River (to Denton)
       Tred Avon River (to Eastern)
       Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
        Authorized Depth (feet)

                50*
                45
                37
                22
                35
                14
               .12
                12
                 8
                12
                35
       *Existing depth in main channel is 42 feet
                                                                                                                51

-------
decline slowly, but steadily, during the
projection period. The vessels involved
in the importation of fresh fish are
refrigerated  fishing craft which range
in size up to 4,100 dwt with 22-foot
drafts. These vessels are able to take
advantage of the municipal channel in
Cambridge which has a project depth
of 25 feet.

FUTURE SUPPLY

METHODOLOGY

The  future supply analysis is actually
an analysis of the capacity of a harbor
or  waterway  in  terms of channel
depths. The following section will pre-
sent a general inventory of existing
and  authorized channel depths for the
major waterways and harbors in the
Chesapeake  Bay Region. A more de-
tailed listing  of channel  depths  by
commodity  for  each  port  considered
in this analysis  is presented in Table
9-6  of  Appendix 9 -  "Navigation."
The basic assumption  made  in  this
assessment  of future supply .is that
there will be no further development
of the Bay's navigation system beyond
the  channel  improvement  projects
which are currently authorized. These
"without project" projections of sup-
ply can then be compared to the "with
project" demand projections to iden-
tify  specific areas or types of uses
where future use may be greater than
the  existing capacity  of the resource.

CHANNEL CAPACITIES

There are  a great variety  of channel
depths  in  Chesapeake  Bay and  its
tributaries.  Baltimore and Hampton
Roads contain the only major  deep-
water ports in  the Study Area with
existing  main channel  depths  of 42
and 45 feet, respectively. The dimen-
sions  of  both  public  and  private
branch   channels  within  these port
complexes vary  considerably. With the
exception of the Chesapeake and Dela-
ware Canal, which primarily serves the
Port of Baltimore, and the York River
Entrance  Channel,  which handles
petroleum  products,  the  remaining
Federal channels are 25 feet in depth
or less and handle barge traffic almost
exclusively. Table 26 lists  the  Feder-
ally  authorized  main channel depths
for the ports and waterways for which
projections  were  prepared in  this
study.
The deepening of the main channel to
Baltimore to 50 feet  was authorized
by Congress in 1970. Preconstmction
planning for this project has recently
been initiated. In addition, the Balti-
more District has recently completed a
study recommending that the Federal
government  assume the  responsibility
for the maintenance  of the  25-foot
municipal  channel  at  Cambridge,
Maryland and the  Tred Avon River
was  recently  dredged  from the  old
channel depth of  8 feet to the new
project depth of 12 feet.

Although dredging of the C & D Canal
to the new project depth of 35 feet
from 27 feet was  recently completed
by  the  Philadelphia  District  of  the
Corps  of  Engineers,  the approach
channel to the Canal  from Baltimore
has experienced serious  shoaling. The
newly  deepened C & D Canal cannot
be used efficiently  unless the approach
channel  is dredged to the 35  foot
project depth.
 Although an authorized depth of 35
 feet was authorized for the  James
 River in 1962, a follow-up study com-
 pleted in 1972 found that dredging to
 the  35-foot depth  was no  longer
 economically justified.
 FUTURE NEEDS AND
 PROBLEM AREAS

 There are several types of commodity
 movements on Chesapeake Bay  in
 which the existing channels are unable
 to  handle present  or projected  ship
 sizes without  serious losses in  eco-
 nomic efficiency. These losses develop
 when large vessels must enter or leave
 a port only partially loaded because of
 depth  limitations.  When these  effi-
 ciency  losses  are  severe enough  to
 outweigh any  competitive  advantage
 an area might have for the movement
 of a certain commodity, severe  eco-
 nomic consequences may result. In the
 case of imported raw materials  pro-
 cessed  in the  port  area,  economic
 losses may be  severe  enough to cause
 cutbacks in production or even plant
 closings resulting  in  the loss of jobs,
 income,  and  tax revenues  to  the
 region.
 The  most critical  commodity  move-
 ments in terms of existing or potential
 inefficiencies  through  the  Ports  of
Baltimore and Hampton Roads are the
bulk  commodities such  as  iron ore,
coal,  grain, and petroleum  products.
Most  of  the  larger vessels  carrying
these  commodities into the two ports
cannot  fully  load or  must lighter
before entering the harbor.

In the case of Baltimore Harbor, the
authorized  50-foot  project, if  con-
structed, will eliminate most of these
inefficiencies.  Despite  the  very  large
increases  expected in  containerized
traffic in Baltimore,  channel depths
are not  expected  to  be a  constraint
due to  the relatively small size  of
containerships  when compared to the
world fleet of tankers and ore carriers.
Another   major   navigation-related
problem in the Baltimore Harbor area
is  the disposal of  dredged material.
Maintenance dredging by the Corps of
Engineers  and other public and private
interests has  been repeatedly delayed
because of the lack of agreement on an
economically   and  environmentally
acceptable  disposal  site   for  the
dredged material. The  magnitude of
the disposal  problem is immense. If
the 50-foot project is completed, it is
estimated  that approximately 150 mil-
lion cubic yards of dredge material will
have to be disposed of during the next
50 years (including maintenance). This
quantity  of  material is sufficient to
cover the entire City of Baltimore to a
depth of  approximately   2  feet. A
suitable disposal site will be identified
during preconstruction  planning  for
the 50-foot project.
 In the Hampton Roads  area, ineffi-
 ciencies in the movement  of export
 coal, grain, and  some of the  miscel-
 laneous bulk commodities  would be
 greatly alleviated if a deeper channel
 were to be authorized and funded. The
 Norfolk District of the Corps of Engi-
 neers is  currently  investigating  the
 feasibility  of deepening the Hampton
 Roads  channels.  A  deeper  channel
 might also benefit the movement of
 crude oil through Hampton Roads to
 the refinery at Yorktown on the York
 River by allowing larger tankers (i.e.,
 up to 90,000 dwt) to enter Hampton
 Roads where they can be lightered for
 the trip to Yorktown. One disadvan-
 tage of this plan would be the possibly
 damaging environmental consequences
 52

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of a major oil spill during these lighter-
ing operations.

As  in the Baltimore Harbor case, the
container vessels carrying general cargo
in and out of Hampton Roads are not
expected  to  increase  significantly  in
size in the foreseeable  future.  There-
fore, it is not  expected that channel
depths will be  a significant constraint
to  the  movement of  containerships
through Hampton Roads.

The dredge material disposal situation
has not been nearly as critical  in the
Hampton Roads area as in Baltimore.
This is due  to the existence of the
Craney Island Disposal  Area. The site
is nearing its capacity, however,  with
complete   filling   expected   around
1980.

The seriousness of this approaching
problem becomes  evident when  it is
noted that maintenance dredging alone
between 1980  and 2020 will produce
approximately  150 million cubic yards
of  material  to be  disposed  of  or
utilized  in   some manner.  If,  for
example, a 55-foot channel deepening
alternative is  undertaken, the  total
dredged material involved increases to
approximately 280 million cubic yards
by  the year 2020  (assuming a 10-year
development period).

With the recent widening and deepen-
ing of the Chesapeake and Delaware
Canal  to  35 feet, it  is believed that
channel dimensions will not be a con-
straint to the general  cargo vessels and
petroleum products carriers which use
the  Canal.   However,  the  need for
maintenance dredging in the approach
channels to the Canal is a continuing
problem.

The most immediate waterborne  com-
merce  related problem facing the York •
River is  the lack of sufficient channel
depth  to  allow large  tankers to bring
crude petroleum and petroleum prod-
ucts directly to the refinery and power
plant without lightering. In 1972, the
Norfolk  District  recommended  that
the  York River entrance channel  be
improved by  providing  a  two-lane,
two-level  channel  into the River; the
inbound lane to provide a depth of 50
feet, and the outbound lane a depth of
37  feet. However, these recommenda-
tions are subject to further investiga-
tion if  the  major  Hampton  Roads
channels   are   recommended   and
authorized for  deepening beyond 45
feet. It is  possible that if the Hampton
Roads channel is deepened beyond 50
feet, the most economically acceptable
alternative is a combination of  con-
tinued lightering and deepening of the
York River entrance channel.

A potential problem area concerns the
significant increase in crude petroleum
receipts and  petroleum product ship-
ments projected for the  Yorktown
refinery. An  increase in this type of
traffic,  estimated to  rise  almost  100
percent  by 2000 and over 200 percent
by  2020,  means the potential for oil
spills will  probably also increase.  The
area of  the York River around York-
town supports  important commercial
and  sport fisheries  which  could be
adversely affected by an oil spill.

The  ability of the existing channels in
the remaining so-called "minor" ports
and  waterways  on the Western Shore
of the Chesapeake Bay to meet future
demands depends in large measure on
the  proportion  of the  demand  for
petroleum products which will be met
by pipeline. A  basic assumption used
in the preparation of the projections
of waterbome  petroleum movements
was  that  all  increases in the demand
for  petroleum  products in the  Bay
Region  would be met by waterborne,
as opposed  to  pipeline,  receipts. If
pipeline   capacities  increase  signifi-
cantly,  then  it  can be expected  that
the existing channels will be able to
efficiently meet  future  demands. If
they do not,  then some channel deep-
enings may be necessary.

Another potential future problem area
involves the possible location of three
large  petroleum  refineries   (Crown
Petroleum in   Baltimore,  Hampton
Roads  Energy  in  Portsmouth,  and
Stewart  Petroleum  at  Piney  Point,
Maryland). If all three of these facil-
ities are built and become operational,
approximately  25  million additional
tons of crude petroleum and as much
as  23.5  million tons  of petroleum
products  could be  shipped on  the
Bay's waters. An expansion in petro-
leum movements  of this magnitude
would obviously increase  the chances
of environmentally damaging oil spills.

.Another  facility designed to handle
petroleum products, although  of a
different type, is scheduled to begin
operations at Cove Point, Maryland, in
the near future. This  facility will dis-
tribute liquid natural gas from Algeria
to a seven state area. Because of the
extremely low temperatures involved,
there  is virtually no danger of a spill
since  the liquid gas  would vaporize
upon  contact with  the  much warmer
air. There is some  potential damage,
however, of a fire or explosion in the
event of a collision with another ves-
sel.  Because  of this,  extraordinary
safety  procedures  are  taken when
transporting liquid natural gas. As the
total number of vessels on Chesapeake
Bay increases in the future, the poten-
tial  for collisions  is  also  likely  to
increase.

MEANS TO SATISFY NEEDS

   (1) A need to accommodate  large
bulk vessels expected  to dominate the
world bulk  trade in petroleum,  coal,
iron ore, and grain.  The most obvious
solution to  the problem  of  accom-
modating larger vessels than existing
channels can handle is to deepen the
channels to  the required depths. There
are,  however,  rather  important eco-
nomic  and  environmental considera-
tions   which  may  preclude  further
deepening.  First,  there are existing
tunnels under  the  main  channels in
both  Baltimore  and Hampton Roads
which,  in  effect,  limit  their depths
since  the cost of lowering these tun-
nels  would  probably be  prohibitive.
Second, as  channel depths increase,
the volume of dredge material to be
disposed of from both deepening and
maintenance   operations   increases
(usually more  than proportionately).

There are  several  alternatives to the
deepening  of  shipping  channels  to
accommodate larger vessels. One is to
use "restricted draft"  vessels which are
characterized by much wider beams to
allow a larger tonnage of cargo to be
carried by a vessel of  a  given draft.
However, such  vessels  are  not  pres-
ently widely available and their costs
are generally higher for a given dead-
weight tonnage.

Another alternative to deepening exist-
ing  channels  is the  development of
so-called  "superports."  Under  this
alternative,  one  or more superports
would  be constructed in deep water
                                                                                                               53

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off the  Eastern  Coast.  Very large
vessels, on the order of 300,000 dwt
with  approximately  75  foot drafts
would unload  at  the deepwater ter-
minal where the cargo (e.g., crude oil,
coal, iron ore) would be transported to
the mainland  by barge  or pipeline.
However, this alternative  is often not
acceptable  for  economic,  environ-
mental, or social reasons.

   (2) A need for an economically
and   environmentally    acceptable
method  of dredge  material disposal.
Given that a channel should be main-
tained or deepened, there are numer-
ous  alternative ways  to  dispose  of
dredge   material.  The cheapest  and
easiest method of dredge material dis-
posal is  to deposit the material either
adjacent to the channel or to barge it
to a  nearby deep underwater site. In
the past, there were two  major open
water disposal sites used in the Bay—
Pooles  Island  Deep and  Kent Island.
At  this time, however,  mainly  for
environmental reasons, the use of open
water disposal in the Bay  in the near
 future appears unlikely.

 Open water  disposal in the Atlantic
 Ocean  is  another possibility  for  the
 disposal of dredge material. The major
 advantage to  this  alternative  is  the
 almost  limitless physical capacity  of
 the  ocean. This  alternative has been
 used in  the past in the Hampton Roads
 area, but the Baltimore area is too far
 from the ocean  for this type of dis-
 posal to be economically feasible.

 In addition,  the  Council  on Environ-
 mental  Quality has  recommended  to
 the  President that ocean  disposal  of
 polluted dredge material be phased out
 as soon as alternatives can be found
 and implemented.

 Another alternative method of dredge
 material disposal is a dyked contain-
 ment  structure.  Both   the  Craney
 Island   site,   which  has  served  the
 Hampton Roads dredge  needs for a
 number of  years,  and the proposed
 Hart-Miller Islands site  in Baltimore
 are this type of structure. These speci-
 fic  projects  are   discussed  in  more
 detail   in  Appendix  9.   In  general,
 dyked  disposal  sites  are  one of the
 least expensive forms  of disposal  and
 they can eventually support such uses
 as ballfields,  parks, nature trails,  and
 boat launching ramps. Local  accept-
dredge material disposal sites, anchor-
ages,  and  even  channels to  avoid,
whenever  possible,  popular  boating
by the construction and filling opera-
tions.

Other  methods  of dredged material
disposal  and/or  utilization  such  as
underwater   sanitary  landfills,  "on-
land"  disposal  at  land-locked sites,
beach  nourishment, or the manufac-
ture  of  bricks, have  economic and
environmental advantages  and  disad-
vantages depending on the project site,
quality of the dredged material, and
other  variables.  For  the  most  part,
however,  these  alternatives are best
suited for smaller projects  and are not
solutions to long-range or large dredge
material disposal problems.

   (3) A need to  alleviate potential
congestion  problems in port, channel,
and  anchorage  areas.  One  possible
solution  to  the potential congestion
and  traffic management problems was
recently  recommended by the Fifth
Coast  Guard District to the Comman-
dant in Washington, D.C. After a two
year study of the movements of com-
mercial vessels  on Chesapeake  Bay,
Coast  Guard marine  safety  experts
recommended  implementation  of  a
comprehensive  traffic  management
system. The  plan, which was oriented
towards  the  Port  of Baltimore and
specifically to the movement of liquid
natural gas into the Cove Point ter-
minal  south  of Baltimore, would  re-
quire  the installation  of government-
operated  communications centers  at
both ends of the  Bay. With this net-
work, marine  traffic  could be con-
trolled in  a manner similar  to  air
traffic at a major international airport.
This  management  responsibility  has
traditionally  been  delegated  to ship
pilots  and  captains. The Coast Guard
had not yet  made  a final  decision  on
the Fifth District's recommendations.

   (4) A need to minimize the poten-
tial conflicts between  commercial and
recreational users of the Bay's waters
and beaches.  Minimizing potential con-
flicts between commercial and recrea-
tional uses of Chesapeake Bay can best
be minimized by a careful selection of
dredge material disposal sites, anchor-
ages,  and  even channels  to  avoid,
whenever  possible, popular  boating
 and  sailing,  fishing,  swimming,  and
 nature areas.  Lightering  sites,  espe-
cially for petroleum, should be located
where  possible accidents  would have
the least effects on recreation areas.

   (5) A need to minimize the erosion
 damages from waves caused by com-
 mercial and military vessels. As men-
 tioned earlier, erosion caused by the
 wakes from ships is a serious problem
 in some areas. The simplest corrective
 action is  to .lower  permitted  vessel
 speeds in areas  of high erosion poten-
 tial, thus decreasing the eroding power
 of the  ship-induced  waves. Today's
 merchant   ships,   however,  are  ex-
 tremely expensive to operate so that
 delays caused by  reduced speed limits
 could  increase  shipping costs  con-
 siderably, thereby offsetting any bene-
 fit to the  shoreline areas affected by
 erosion. Another possible solution to
 the  erosion  problem would  be  the
 provision of non-structural or struc-
 tural shoreline protection measures,in
 the critically eroding areas.

   (6) A need to minimize accidental
 spills  and  eliminate deliberate  dis-
 charges  of wastes  from commercial
 and  recreation   craft.  As  discussed
 earlier, a comprehensive traffic  man-
 agement system  for  the Bay would
 reduce the  potential for  a collision or
 accident that could result in a massive
 spill.  Appropriate Federal,  State, and
 local  controls  with  substantial pen-
 alties for non-compliance would prob-
 ably  be  effective in  reducing  the
 number of  occurrences. Lastly,  re-
 sponse teams can and are being estab-
 lished  at   Federal,  State,  and  local
 levels to minimize damage in the event
 of an accidental spill.

 In response to Public  Law 92-500 the
 provision of  holding  tanks or other
 suitable flow-through devices on  all
 ships  will  be very effective in elimi-
 nating this problem.  Attendant with
 the  inclusion of ship board tanks and
 devices  is  the  need  for shore-based
 facilities that can treat the effluent
 pumped from ships.

   (7) A  need  to provide  additional
 lands to accommodate expanding port
 facilities. The present and future needs
 for  lands  to be used for port-related
 facilities requires that the appropriate
 transportation and planning agencies
 of State and local  governments de-
 velop zoning and land use plans that
 will insure the orderly development of
 54

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the necessary  improvements. As part
of the development of the appropriate
land use plans, consideration will have
to be given to the impact on adjacent
lands,  the need  for  lands  for  com-
peting uses such as  recreation,  and
conflicts  with natural  phenomenon
including   hurricane   flooding   and
shoreline erosion.

        FLOOD  CONTROL

CURRENT STATUS

THE TIDAL FLOODING
PROBLEM

Since man first settled on the shoreline
of Chesapeake Bay, he has been sub-
ject to periodic  tidal flooding which
has resulted  in immeasurable human
suffering  and millions  of  dollars  of
property  damage. Serious tidal flood-
ing in  the Chesapeake Bay Region  is
caused by either hurricanes or "north-
easters."  Hurricanes  which reach the
Middle  Atlantic  States are usually
formed   either in  the  Cape  Verde
Region or the western Caribbean Sea
 and move westerly and northwesterly.
In most cases these storms change to a
northerly and northeasterly direction
in the vicinity of the East Coast of the
 United States.

  As  a  hurricane  progresses over  the
  open water of the ocean, a tidal surge
  is built up, not only by the force of
  the  wind and the forward movement
  of the  storm wind  field, but also  by
  differences   in  atmospheric pressure
  accompanying the storm.  The actual
  height reached  by  a hurricane  tidal
  surge  and  the  consequent damages
  incurred depend on many  factors  in-
  cluding  shoreline configuration, bot-
  tom  slope, difference  in atmospheric
  pressure and wind speed. Generally the
  tidal surge  is increased as  the  storm
  approaches land because of both the
  decreasing depth of the ocean and the
  contours of the  coastline. An addi-
  tional rise  usually  occurs  when  the
  tidal surge invades  a bay or estuary
  and hurricane winds  drive waters to
  higher  levels in  the  more  shallow
  waters.  Tidal surges are greater,  and
  the  tidal  flooding  more  severe  in
  coastal communities which lie to the
  right of the storm path  due  to the
  counterclockwise  spiraling of the hur-
  ricane winds and the  forward  move-
  ment of the storm.
                                TABLE 27
       TIDAL ELEVATIONS DURING RECENT CHESAPEAKE BAY STORMS
          Storm



  August 1933

  September 1936

  October 1954 "Hazel"

  August 1955 "Connie"

  August 1955 "Diane"

  April 1956 "Northeaster"

  March 1962 "Northeaster"
   Tidal Elevations (Feet Above Mean Sea Level)

Norfolk     Mid-Bay    Washington     Baltimore
  8.0

  7.5

  3.3

  4.4

  4.4

  6.5

  7.4
7.3



4.8

4.6

4.5

2.8

6.0
9.6

3.0

7.3

5.2

5.6

4.0
8.2

2.3

6.0

6.9

5.0

3.3

4.7
                                  TABLE 28
         TIDAL FLOOD DAMAGES OF RECENT CHESAPEAKE BAY STORMS
       Location




Baltimore Metro Area

Washington Metro Area

Maryland Tidewater Area

Norfolk Metro Area

Virginia Tidewater Area
 "Northeaster" is a term given to a high
 intensity storm which almost invari-
 ably develops near the Atlantic Coast.
 These storms form so rapidly that an
 apparently harmless weather situation
 may  be transformed into  a severe
 storm in as little as 6 hours. Most
 northeasters  occur  in  the  winter
 months  when  the  temperature  con-
 trasts between the  continental  and
 maritime air  masses are the greatest.
 The  East Coast of the United States
 has a comparatively high incidence of
 this type of storm, with the area near
 Norfolk, Virginia, being one  of the
• centers of highest frequency.

 In the course of recorded history, the
 Chesapeake  Bay Region has been sub-
 jected to about 100 storms that have
 caused  damaging tidal flooding.  The
 accounts of most of the storms  that
 occurred prior to 1900 are very brief
 and  are usually  found  only in  early
 newspaper  articles and private  jour-
 nals. The earliest known account of a
 great storm in this Area appeared in
 Arthur  P. Middleton's Tobacco Coast.
   Storms and Damages in Thousands of Dollars
August 1933
$23,500
12,000
11,400
8,500
Negligible
October 1954
"Hazel"
$6,900
4;soo
9,100
Negligible
Negligible
August 1955
"Connie"
$11,500
300
1,800
Negligible
Negligible
March 1962
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
$ 4,800
24,700
            This storm was  the  great  "Hurry-
            Cane" of August 1667 in which fields
            were inundated, crops  were  torn  to
            shreds, houses and barns were carried
            away, and even the largest vessels were
            washed  up on  the beach. J.  Thomas
            Scharf,  in his  History  of Baltimore
            City and  County,  states that one of
            the most  destructive storms  of later
            times occurred in July  1837. The
            water rose twenty feet  above its nor-
            mal level and many sections of the city
            were flooded by more than five feet of
            water. However, the elevation and the
            area inundated by these early tidal
            floods  was  seldom accurately docu-
            mented  and it was not until the early
            part of the 20th  century that  a pro-
            gram to maintain continuous records
            of tidal elevations was  initiated. The
            damages and loss  of life suffered dur-
            ing these  early floods is also  not well
            documented.

            Shown in Table 27 are the recorded
            tidal elevations at several locations for
            the most  severe floods that  have oc-
            curred in  this  Century. It should be
                                                                                                                 55

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 noted  that  the  relative  seveiity  of
 flooding varies around the Bay since it
 is a function of changes in storm paths
 and  variances  in  climatological and
 astronomical tide conditions.

 The hurricane of 23 August 1933 was
 the most destructive  ever recorded.
 The hurricane center entered the main-
 land  near   Cape   Hatteras,  passed
 slightly west of Norfolk, Virginia, and
 continued  in  a northerly  direction
 passing just east of Washington, D.C. It
 moved at or near the critical speed for
 producing the maximum surge, and its
 time  of arrival  coincided  with  the
 astronomical high tide as it proceeded
 upstream. The results were tides rang-
 ing from 8.0 feet above mean sea level
 (msl) at Norfolk to as high as 11.0 feet
 (msl) at  Washington, D.C. In addition
 to  flooding  damage, the  high winds
 associated  with this storm  generated
 very  destructive waves  which  caused
 extensive shoreline erosion.

 Shown in Table 28 is an estimate  of
 the damages  that were  caused  by the
 four most damaging storms  that have
 passed through the Bay Region. The
 estimates reflect the actual physical
 damages  that  occurred,  updated  to
 reflect 1975 price levels. These figures
 do not reflect the damages that would
 result  from   a recurrence  of these
 storms under today's  conditions due
 to differences in intensity of develop-
 ment in the flood plain.
 FLOOD PROBLEM AREAS

 Existing  flood  problem  areas  were
. identified by considering the degree of
 tidal  flooding that would be  experi-
 enced  by those communities located
 along the shoreline of the  Bay and its
 tributaries. The analysis was limited to
 communities or urbanized areas  since
 residential, commercial, and  industrial
 development would suffer  the greatest
 monetary losses as a result of a tidal
 flood.

 The initial step in the analysis was to
 identify  all Bay communities having a
 population of 1,000 or greater that are
 located either in total or in part within
 the  "Standard  Project Tidal  Flood
 Plain."  The  Standard Project  Tidal
 Flood (SPTF) is defined as the largest
 tidal flood that is likely to  occur under
                                 TABLE 29
           FLOODPRONE COMMUNITIES, CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
    STATE OF MARYLAND

    Anne Arundel County
     *Arundel on the Bay
     *Avalon Shores (Shady Side, Curtis
        Pt. to Horseshoe Pt and West
        Shady Side)
      Broadwatei
      Columbia Beach
     *Deale
      Eastport
      Franklin Manor on the Bay
        and Cape Anne
      Galesville
      Rose Haven

   * Baltimore City

    Baltimore County
      Back River Neck
     *Dundalk (Including Sparrows Pt.)
     * Middle River Neck
     •Patapsco River Neck

    Calvert County
      Cove Point
      North Beach on the Bay
      Solomons Island

    Caroline County
      Choptank
     *Denton
      Federalsburg

    Cecil County
      Elkton
      Northeast

    Charles County
      Cobb Island

    Dorchester County
     *Cambridge

    Harford County
      Havre de Grace

    Kent County
     *Rock Hall

    Queen Anne's County
      Dominion
     *Grasonville
      Stevensville

    St. Mary's County
      Colton
     *Piney Point
      St. Clement Shores
      St. George Island
       STATE OF MARYLAND (Cont.)

       Somerset County
        *Crisfield
        * Smith Island

       Talbot County
         Easton
         Oxford
        *St. Michaels
        *Tilghman Island

       Wicomico County
         Bivalve
         Nanticoke
        * Salisbury

       Worcester County
        *Pocomoke City
        *Snow Hill

       COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA

       Independent Cities
        •Fredericksburg
        "Hampton
        •Norfolk
        •Portsmouth
        •Virginia Beach
        •Chesapeake

       Accomack County
         Onancock
         Sax is
        •Tangier Island

       King George County
        •Dahlgren

       King William County
        •West Point

       Northampton County
        •Cape Charles

       Westmoreland County
        •Colonial Beach

       York County
        •Poquoson

      •WASHINGTON, D.C.
    •Indicates "critically" floodprone communities.
the most severe combination of mete-
orological and hydrological conditions
that are considered reasonably charac-
teristic of the geographic region.
 The next step in the flooding analysis
 was  to identify  those  communities
that should  be classified as "flood-
prone." In order for a community to
be  designated as floodprone, at least
50  acres of land that were developed
for intensive use had to be inundated
by  the  SPTF. Intensive land use was
defined as residential  (four dwelling
units/acre  or   greater),  commercial
 56

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(including institutional),  or industrial
development. The 59 Bay Region com-
munities identified  as floodprone are
shown on  Table 29. Approximately
82,000  acres of land  in these com-
munities were found to be located in
the SPTF flood plain.
The last step in  the flooding analysis
was to  further  examine  the com-
munities designated as floodprone and
classify  each as to whether or not the
tidal flood problem was considered to
be  "critical." The flood  problem  was
considered  to be critical if the Inter-
mediate  Regional Tidal Flood  (IRTF)
inundated 25 acres  or more of inten-
sively developed land and also' caused
significant physical damage. The .IRTF
is defined as that tidal flood which has
a one percent chance of occurrence in
any one year, generally referred to as
the 100-year flood. Elevations for the
100-year tidal  flood  were approxi-
mated for  points around Chesapeake
Bay based  on historical  records.  The
flood heights used were found to range
between 6.0 and 11.0 feet above msl.
The communities asterisked on Table
29  are classified as "critical floodprone
areas." Approximately 27,000 acres of
land  in  these 32 communities  were
found to be in the 100-year tidal flood
plain.

FUTURE TIDAL FLOOD
PROBLEM AREAS

The criteria used for designating an
area as  future floodprone was  that 50
acres or more of land proposed for
intensive  land  use fall  within  the
Standard Project Tidal  Flood Plain.
Areas were  considered  to be  "criti-
cally" floodprone if 25 acres or more
of land  proposed for intensive land use
were  within  the  100-year flood plain.
The communities found to  be criti-
cally  floodprone  in  the  future are
shown on Table  30. Based on a com-
parison   of the  existing and  future
acreage  it  should be noted that an
additional  58,430  acres of  land  is
proposed for intensive  development
within  the  Standard Project Tidal
Flood Plain and  19,460  acres of land
within the 100-year flood plain.

 MEANS TO SATISFY NEEDS

 NON-STRUCTURAL SOLUTIONS

    a. mood Insurance: Until recently,
 insurance  against flood-caused losses
                                 TABLE 30
      CRITICAL FUTURE FLOODPRONE AREAS, CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION
  STATE OF MARYLAND

  Anne Arundel County
   Arundel on the Bay

  Baltimore County
   Dundalk (Including Sparrows Point)

  Cecil County
   Elkton
   Northeast

  Kent County
   Rock Hall

  Queen Anne's County
   Grasonville
   Stevensville

  Somerset County
   Smith Island

was virtually non-existent. Now, how-
ever,  flood  insurance is  available  in
floodprone  communities  under  the
Federally-subsidized  National  Flood
Insurance  Program.   A  cooperative
effort of the Federal Government and
the  private  insurance industry,  the
program is  operated  by  the  Federal
Insurance  Administration of the U.S.
Department  of Housing  and  Urban
Development (HUD). In  return  for
making  low cost insurance available
for existing  floodprone property, the
program  places  certain  obligations
upon the community. The community
is required to adopt and enforce land
use and other control measures that
will guide new development in flood-
prone areas  so that  flood  damage is
avoided  or   reduced.  Most  of  the
affected  counties and local jurisdic-
tions in the  Region are enrolled in the
Flood Insurance Program.

   b.  Flood  Proofing: Flood proofing
is actually a  combination  of structural
changes and  adjustments to properties
subject  to   flooding.  Although  it is
more economically  applied to  new
construction, it is also applicable to
existing facilities.  Flood proofing is
recommended where traditional collec-
tive types of flood protection are not
feasible and where moderate flooding
with low stage, low velocity, and short
duration is experienced.

Flood proofing measures can be clas-
sified into  three  broad types.  First,
there are permanent  measures which
become an integral part of the  struc-
      STATE OF MARYLAND (Cont)

      Talbot County
       St. Michaels

      Wicomico County
       Salisbury

      Worchester County
       Pocomoke City

      COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA

      Independent Cities
       Hampton
       Norfolk
       Virginia Beach
       Chesapeake

      York County
       Poquoson

ture. Second, there are standby meas-
ures  which  are  used  only  during
floods, but which are constructed  or
made ready prior to any flood threat.
Third, there  are emergency  measures
which  are carried out during a flood
according to a predetermined plan.

Permanent measures essentially involve
either  the  elimination of  openings
through which water can enter or the
reorganization of space within build-
ings. For example, unnecessary doors
and windows  can be permanently
sealed with brick; a watertight flood
shield  at a  doorway opening can also
serve as the  door; valves can be  in-
stalled  on  basement  sewer  pipes  to
prevent flood water from  backing  up
into the basement; or boilers, air con-
ditioning units,  and other  immobile
machinery  can be  moved to higher
elevations and replaced with movable
furniture or  stock. Adjustments such
as these can be most easily undertaken
in existing  buildings during periods of
remodeling or expansion.

Standby measures are  most desirable
when it is necessary to maintain access
into  structures  at  points  below  se-
lected  flood  protection  levels.  For
example,  display  windows  at  com-
mercial structures must not be blocked
in order to serve their main purpose.
These  types  of openings cannot  be
permanently  flood proofed, but they
can be fitted with removable flood
shields. Since the placement and instal-
lation of such devices requires several
hours, a flood warning system has to
be established before such flood proof-
                                                                                                               57

-------
ing measures can become effective.

Emergency measures  are  carried out
during  an actual  flood  experience.
These  measures may be  designed to
keep  water  out  of  buildings,  for
example, the  sandbagging of entrances
or the use of  planking covered over
with   polyethylene  sheeting.   More
often they are  intended only to pro-
tect  equipment and stock.  A widely
used   emergency   measure   is  the
planned removal of contents to higher
locations when a certain flood stage is
reached.  Again, an  effective  flood
warning system is crucial to the  effec-
tiveness of this  type of measure.

   c. Other  Non-Structural Measures:
 Other non-structural measures used in
 reducing  flood damages  are:  perma-
 nent or temporary evacuation of the
 flood  plain, land use  controls  and
 building codes designed to control the
 extent and type of future development
 in the flood plain, and public aware-
 ness  programs to make the potential
 hazards of tidal flooding known to the
 prospective  developer  and/or home-
 owner.
 STRUCTURAL SOLUTIONS

 Structural  solutions are.  defined as
 those  man-made  structures that are
 designed to protect  an area from tidal
 flood damages. Floodwalls  and levees
 are  two  examples of these types of
 structures.  While  differing in  design,
 appearance,  and  cost, floodwalls and
 levees serve essentially the same pur-
 pose. Both  are constructed near the
 shoreline to protect landside develop-
 ment from inundation by tidal flood-
 waters. Eloodwalls  are generally con-
 crete and may have  vertical, curved or
 stepped faces.  Levees are usually earth
 embankments  having a  top width of
 approximately 10 feet and  side slopes
 that vary between 1 on 2 and  1 on 4.
 Levees  are  generally less expensive
 than floodwalls  and are particularly
 applicable in areas where construction
 materials are nearby and there is suf-
 ficient area between the shoreline and
 the  development  for their  construc-
 tion. Floodwalls  may be used where
 the  close  proximity of the develop-
 ment to  the shoreline precludes the
 construction of levees.

 Because  of the high cost of providing
this  type  of protection,  the  appli-
cability of levees and floodwalls in the
Bay Region would generally be limited
to those  highly developed urbanized
areas where there is extensive residen-
tial, commercial, or industrial develop-
ment   that  is  subject  to  damaging
flooding.  It should also be noted that
providing  a levee  or floodwall of suf-
ficient   height  to protect against  a
major  tidal flood could  severely re-
strict  the  use  of the  shoreline for
recreational  or  transportation and
shipping   purposes.   Also,   the
protection may be considered unac-
ceptable from an aesthetic standpoint
if the  view of  the  water  body  is
restricted.

A breakwater is another type of flood
protection structure. It is designed to
break  the force of storm waves and
thus reduce the damage that would be
experienced by storm waves breaking
on   shoreline  development.   Break-
waters are also used to create harbors
of refuge that provide safe mooring for
recreational  and  commercial   craft.
Breakwaters may be either shore con-
nected  or located  offshore and are
generally  classified by  either the con-
struction  materials  or  the method of
construction. Different types of break-
waters may be  constructed of stone or
concrete blocks (rubble-mound break-
waters), stone-asphalt  mixtures, rein- •
forced concrete shells filled wtih stone
or sand,  steel  sheet piling cells filled
with  sand, timber cribs  filled with
rubble, or  mobile  or  floating  break-
waters which may be moved into place
when  a tidal flood is predicted. The
most common type of breakwater  in
the  Chesapeake  Bay  Region  is the
shore connected, rubble-mound break-
water.  In the sheltered waters  of the
Bay and the sub-estuaries this type  of
protection is very effective and usually
can be constructed  with materials that
are available locally.

Recreational and commercial craft are
particularly  susceptible  to  damage
caused by the large waves associated
with tidal flooding. Harbors of refuge
provide areas  of calm water for the
safe mooring  of all  types  of craft.
Harbors  of refuge can  be  naturally
sheltered areas such as coves or inlets
or existing marinas, and mooring areas
protected through  the use of break-
waters as discussed above.
Other  structural  measures including
bulkheads,  revetments,  groins,  and
beach  nourishment that  are used pri-
marily for shoreline  erosion  control
also have some applicability as flood
control measures.  A detailed  descrip-
tion of these  measures is included  in
Appendix 11 - Shoreline Erosion.
      SHORELINE EROSION

CURRENT STATUS

THE SHORELINE EROSION
PROCESS

The shorelands of Chesapeake Bay are
composed   of  three  physiographic
elements—fastland, shore, and near-
shore (Figure 29). The fastland is that
area landward of normal water levels.
The shore is  the zone of beaches and
wetlands  which  serve  as a buffer
between the water body and  the fast-
land. Lastly,  the  nearshore  extends
waterward from the mean low water
level to the 12-foot depth contour. In
the Chesapeake Bay  proper, the near-
shore is generally  comprised of a shal-
low  water belt more than 1,000 feet
 wide before the 6-foot mean low water
 depth contour is encountered. From
 the 6-foot contour outward, the depth
 increases at a more rapid rate.
 While the causes of shoreline erosion
 are  complex  and  not  completely
 understood, the primary processes re-
 sponsible  for erosion are wave action,
 tidal currents, and  groundwater activ-
 ity. Waves generated by wind are the
 cause of most of the shoreline erosion
 in the  Bay  Region.  The amount  of
 wave energy which reaches the shore-
 line  is dependent on the slope of the
 nearshore. A shallow nearshore will
 dissipate  more  wave  energy than  a
 deep nearshore. In  addition, less wave
 energy  is  received  by  a  shoreline if
 there is a shoal, tidal flat, or aquatic
 vegetaion immediately offshore. Simi-
 larly, a wide beach is  better  than a
 narrow beach  for  wave  dissipation.
 Conversely, where  the shoreline has
 none of the above natural features and
 wave action is strong, undercutting of
 the ground landward of the beach will
 cause sliding, slumping, and  resultant
 loss   of  fastland.
 Waves associated with  hurricanes  or
 other large storms  can be extremely
 58

-------
damaging.  These  storms can generate
very large, steep wind waves which can
remove considerable material from the
shore  zone  and  carry it  offshore.
Strong  winds of  these  storms  often
raise water levels and expose to wave
attack lands  of higher  elevation that
are not ordinarily vulnerable.
Erosion problems caused by tidal cur-
rents  are usually most severe  in con-
stricted areas such as inlets to  lagoons
and bays or at entrances to harbors. In
addition to  creating currents which
cause  erosion,  the  tides  constantly
change the level at which waves attack
the  beach,  thereby  aggravating the
problem.
Another process which contributes to
the  erosion  of the shoreline  is  the
seepage  of  groundwater through  the
fastland and into the exposed  shore
zone. As shown  on Figure 30,  taken
from the Chester River Study prepared
by the  State  of Maryland and  the
Westinghouse   Electric  Corporation,
water  percolates  downward through
porous  soils and  flows out through
exposed bank  faces often causing an
erosion of bank materials. This process
is accelerated where man has removed
the natural cover on the land adjacent
 to  the  banks  thus   increasing   the
 amount of rainfall seeping into  the
 ground.
 To  a much lesser  degree, three  other
 factors  contribute to  the shoreline
 erosion  problem in Chesapeake Bay.
 First, the long term rise of sea level has
 resulted in the inundation or loss of
 land to the Bay.  An average rise of
 0.01 feet per year has been recorded in
 the lower  Chesapeake  Bay.  At Fort
 McHenry in Baltimore,  Maryland, the
 National Ocean Survey tide gage indi-
 cated a 0.6 foot rise in mean  sea level
 between  1902 and 1962. These seem-
 ingly insignificant rates of increase can
 over  the  years inundate  significant
 land area particularly where shorelands
 have very gentle slopes. Second, rain-
 fall  runoff  can cause or  contribute
 significantly to  shoreline erosion, par-
 ticularly in  areas  where  the  adjacent
 shoreline is rolling and broken  and
 soils are made  up of easily  erodible
 materials.  Last, in  some areas of the
          FASTLAND
      MLW — "MEAN LOW WATER"
                                         Figure 29: Shorelands of Chesapeake Bay
   Figure 30: Shoreline Erosion Caused by the Seepage of Groundwater
Bay,  especially  around busy  harbors
and waterways such as the Chesapeake
and  Delaware Canal, the wakes from
passing ships  are a significant erosive
force.

EXISTING PROBLEMS AND
CONFLICTS

The natural processes discussed in the
preceding  paragraphs  have  claimed
thousands  of acres of land  around
Chesapeake  Bay and  its tributaries.
Over  the last 100 years alone, approxi-
mately 45,000 acres of land have been
lost due to tidal erosion. The configu-
ration of the shoreline  has changed
markedly in some  areas; and certain
islands,  some of which exceeded  400
acres in  size, have ceased to exist.

The most significant impact of the loss
of this amount of land has been on the
landowners  who have witnessed  the
loss of  both valuable shoreland  and
improvements that  may have been
constructed too close to the shoreline.
Attempts to try to arrest the rate of
erosion  through either poorly designed
or  constructed  protective  measures
have   further   frustrated   property
owners   when  their  efforts  proved
futile. In many cases, man has acceler-
ated the rate of erosion by eliminating
natural  protective devices such as vege-
tative cover that inhibit erosion.
                                                                                                                 59

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Sediment, the product of erosion, has
also  had significant impacts on both
the natural environment and man's use
of the resource. Sediment from shore-
line  erosion may  eventually be  de-
posited  in either natural or man-made
navigation   channels  requiring  main-
tenance  dredging   and  the problems
normally associated with the  disposal
of the  dredged material. In addition,
sediment   also  has  a   considerable
impact on water quality and the biota
of the Bay. Sediment can cover pro-
ductive   oyster beds  and  valuable
aquatic  plants. The reduced light pene-
tration  into turbid waters can also be
very detrimental to aquatic life.
 In  order  to  define  those areas or
 reaches  of tidal  shoreline along the
 Bay and its  tributaries that are suf-
 fering  "critical"  losses  of land, an
 inventory  of historical erosion  rates
 and the adjacent land use was  com-
 piled.  The erosion  rates used in the
 compilation were developed  by the
 Maryland  Geological  Survey and the
 Virginia Institute of  Marine  Sciences
 for the Maryland and Virginia portions
 of the Bay, Respectively.

 In the determination  of the shoreline
 erosion rates  the shoreline was broken
 down  into workable lengths called
 "reaches,"  which range from several
 hundred  to several thousand feet  in
 length. These reaches  were established
 based on physiographic characteristics
 including  the  erosion  or deposition
 rate.  The  inventory  of  the  erosion
 rates on a reach by reach basis for each
 tidal county  in Maryland and Virginia
 is  included in Tables  A-l and  A-2,
 respectively,  of Appendix 11—Shore-
 line Erosion.

 Using these erosion  rates  along  with
 land use information  developed by the
 U.S. Geological Survey as  part of the
 CARETS   program,   reaches   were
 designated as having critical  erosion
 problems if they  met  or exceeded the
 following criteria:


    1.  The  erosion rate was equal to or
 greater than  3 feet per year regardless
 of adjacent land use.

    2.  The erosion rate was equal to or
 greater  than 2 feet per year and the
 adjacent land use was intensive, i.e.,
 residential, commercial, or industrial.
             TABLE 31
      LENGTH OF CRITICALLY
        ERODING SHORELINE
       STATE OF MARYLAND
County/City

Anne Arundel
Baltimore
Calvert
Cecil
Charles
Dorchester
Harford
Kent
Queen Anne's
Somerset
St. Mary's
Talbot
Wicomico
                    Length of Critical
                     Shoreline Miles
                                                   TOTAL
                                                                  259.5
             TABLE 32
       LENGTH OF CRITICALLY
        ERODING SHORELINE
    COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
 County /City

 Accomack
 Essex
 Gloucester
 Hampton
 Isle of Wight
 Lancaster
 Ma thews
 Middlesex
 Northampton
 Northumberland
 Richmond
 Surry
 Virginia Beach
 Westmoreland
 York

         TOTAL
Length of Critical
 Shoreline. Miles
    142.9
Using the above criteria and assump-
tions,  approximately  403  miles  of
shoreline were identified as existing
"critical erosion reaches." Table 11-1
of Appendix 11 lists each critical reach
by  county and state, the land use in
the reach,  reach  length, erosion  rate
and an evaluation of existing structural
sHoreline protection measures  within
the reach. Plates 11-1 through 11-3 in
Appendix  11  show the  location of
these critical reaches. Tables 31 and 32
in this Summary list the amount of
critically eroding shoreline by county
for Maryland and Virginia.
                                 TABLE 33
                       FUTURE CRITICALLY ERODING
                                 REACHES
                               (MARYLAND)

                                 LOCALITY
                              WATER BODY/
                           REACH DESIGNATION
                    Anne Arundel County

                      Chesapeake Bay
                         Bodkin Point
                         Persimmon Point
                    Calvert County

                      Chesapeake Bay
                         From approximately V4 mile north
                           of Plum Point to Parker Creek
                         From approximately % mile north
                           of Flag Ponds to Cove Point
                         Cape Anne
                    Cecil County

                       Northeast River
                         Charlestown to Carpenter Point
                         Northeast Heights to Red Point
Kent County

   Chesapeake Bay
      2 miles south of Tolchester Beach to
        Tavern Creek
                    Queen Anne's County

                       Chesapeake Bay
                          Broad Creek to % mile south of
                            Carney Creek
                       Chesapeake Bay
                          Jackson Creek to Piney Cove
                       Eastern Bay
                          Greenwood to Bennett Point
Wicomico County

   Nanticoke River
      Roaring Point
   Bivalve Harbor to 1 mile north
                   FUTURE SHORELINE
                   EROSION PROBLEMS

                   The method  employed to  delineate
                   future problem areas is essentially the
                   same as that used to define the exist-
                   ing critical areas. It was assumed that
                   the historical erosion rates were reflec-
                   tive of future erosion rates in the same
                   reaches. It was  further  assumed that
                   future land use adjacent to the shore-
                   line would  develop as shown in  the
  6O

-------
 latest  regional, county, or municipal
 land  use planning documents. Given
 the  historical  erosion  rates and  pro-
 jected future land use adjacent to the
 shoreline, the entire  Bay shoreline was
 surveyed to determine if any future
 development was proposed  in areas
 subjected  to   significant  shoreline
 erosion.
 It was  determined that an additional
 44.4  miles  of Bay  shoreline has the
 potential to become a serious problem.
 (See  Tables 33  and 34).  This  is in
 addition to the  over  400 miles of
 shoreline that is currently classified as
 critical based on existing development.
 NON-STRUCTURAL SOLUTIONS

 Nonstructural  solutions consist of de-
 vices which  enhance the effectiveness
 of natural protective features and reg-
 ulatory actions that can be employed
 to avoid a  land  use-erosion conflict.
 The following nonstructural measures
 have applicability in shoreline erosion
 problems in  Chesapeake Bay.
   a. Marsh  Creation.  As  previously
mentioned, marshes tend to buffer the
shoreline  against wave action and its
consequential  erosive  forces.  Under
certain  conditions,  marshes  can be
created  by  selective  placement of
material in the nearshore zone and the '
seeding and transplanting  of native
plants  such  as  saltmarsh  cordgrass
(Spartina   Alterniflora).  A  possible
source of material  for the creation of
marshes is dredged material from chan-
nel  maintenance and deepening  pro-
jects. The  use  of this material would
not  only  serve  to  provide  erosion
control and create  additional fish and
wildlife habitat, but it could help solve
the problem of finding acceptable dis-
posal sites for dredged material.

b. Vegetative  Cover.  In addition to
improving the  ability of the shoreline
and  fastland areas to  resist erosion,
vegetation  can trap windblown mate-
rial and thus aid in the formation of a
protective  dune.  Vegetation as a  sole
protection  against erosion has proven
to  be unsuccessful  except  in  well-
protected  areas. Its widest application
has been its use in conjunction with
other structural measures such as bulk-
heads and groins. It has also been used
             TABLE 34
   FUTURE CRITICALLY ERODING
             REACHES
            (VIRGINIA)

            LOCALITY
           WATER BODY/
       REACH DESIGNATION
 Gloucester County

   Ware River
      Ware River Point to Old House Creek
   Mobjack Bay
      Ware River Point to Turtleneck Point
   York River
      Sandy Point to east of Perrin River
 City of Hampton

   Back River
      Harris Creek to North End Point
Lancaster County

   Rappahannock River
      Wyatt Creek to Greenvale Creek
      Navy Auxiliary Air Force to
        Mulberry Creek
      Mulberry Creek to Curletts Point
   Corrotoman River
      Eastern Shoreline
 Northumberland County

   Potomac River
      Eastern Shoreline of Wilkens Creek
   Chesapeake Bay
      Taskmers Creek to Warehouse Creek
Richmond County

   Rappahannock River
      Morattico Creek to Tarpley Point
      Tarpley Point to Sharps Road Point
      Sharps Road Point to Rechardson
        Creek
      Waverly Point to McGuire Creek
Westmoreland County

   Potomac River
      Ragged Point to Jackson Crsek
York County

   York River
      Skimino-Creek to 1.8 mile south
to stabilize backfills of bulkheads and
in  combination  with groins  in  the
creation  and stabilization of beaches.
   c. Regulatory Actions  and Public
Awareness Programs.  Land use regula-
tions can  be used to set aside critically
eroding reaches  for such non-intensive
uses as recreation or  open space. This
action  would prohibit development of
structures that would  be threatened by
a rapidly receding shoreline.

A second approach is to adopt build-
ing codes which would allow for devel-
opment  in eroding  areas but that
would  require the construction of the
appropriate erosion control measures.
The developer would be required to
provide continuous protection for the
length  of the reach.

A public  awareness program could be
used to advise  the  public as to the
location and severity of shoreline ero-
sion and  could also  provide informa-
tion as to the structural and nonstruc-
tural measures that could be used to
control erosion.

STRUCTURAL SOLUTIONS

Structural  solutions  are  defined  as
those  man-made  structures that are
designed to either prevent waves and
tidal action  from reaching credible
material or that retard the longshore
transport  of  littoral  drift (i.e.,  the
movement of sediments parallel to the
shore in the nearshore zone by waves
and currents) and thus aid the build-up
of  the  natural  nearshore  defenses.
Bulkheads and  revetments are  the
most commonly used structures that
prevent erosive  forces  from reaching
the fastland  while groins and  beach
nourishment   are  most  frequently
employed in the  Region to build  up
the  nearshore.  The  following  para-
graphs include a general discussion of
the above mentioned structural meas-
ures and their general design character-
istics.

   a. Bulkheads. The main purpose of
a  bulkhead  is  to  retain  the earth
behind it, to deflect the energy  of
incoming  waves, and  to prevent flood-
ing. Bulkheads  which  are essentially
vertical walls, can  be constructed of
wood,  stone, concrete, or metals, but
are commonly made  of wood, with a
framework of pilings and cross-timbers
called  wales covered  with a sheathing
of thick boards nailed or bolted to the
framework. Areas around Chesapeake
Bay where such  protection  can  be
                                                                                                                   61

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most effectively used are in sheltered
waters such as coves, harbors,  and in
small bays. In open waters, such as on
the Bay  proper,  bulkheads  may. be
relatively ineffective as the severity of
the water action causes scouring at the
bottom of the structure and eventually
undermines the bulkhead itself.
   b. Revetments.  A  revetment con-
sists of armoring the  sloping face of
the shore with one or more layers of
riprap or concrete. The sloping charac-
teristic in this design serves to dissipate
wave energy as the water rolls up tne
incline. Riprap is composed of stone,
chunks of  concrete,  rubble or brick
and it is the most common type of
revetment construction  employed in
the Bay Area. The irregular surface of
riprap also serves  to  break up water
momentum and  provide  niches which
capture sediment and  thus adds stabil-
ity. Gabions  consisting  of riprap en-
closed in wire mesh cages may also be
used.  These baskets capture sediment
and grow protective vegetation which
eventually  blends  the structure  into
the surroundings.  Properly designed
revetments can effectively retard ero-
sion even in severe  cases.  In  certain
ineffective  attempts  to halt erosion,
unsuitable materials such as junked car
bodies,  engines, and tires  have been
used as riprap to absorb wave  energy.
   c.  Groins. A groin is a barrier-type
structure which extends perpendicular
to  the shoreline  into the  nearshore
zone  of sand  movement. The basic
purpose  of  a  groin is  to interrupt
alongshore sand movement in order to
accumulate sand on the  shore or  to
retard sand  losses.  Some  groins  or
groin fields interrupt the flow of sand
to downdrift areas thus causing dam-
age to these  shorelines.  In order  to
minimize   damage to  the  shoreline
downstream from a groin, it has to be
designed  with  the  top  profile  not
higher than that of a beach  of reason-
able dimensions. When full,  a groin of
this type  will  permit the  stream  of
sand to pass over its top and continue
on downstream to nourish the neigh-
boring  shores. Groins should not  be
built unless properly  designed for the
particular site and the effects  of the
groins  on adjacent beaches have been
adequately  studied  by  an  engineer
experienced in this field.


   d. Beach  Nourishment.   Another
measure  which  can  be used  either
singularly or in  connection with  the
previously   mentioned  measures  is
beach  nourishment.  Beach  nourish-
ment  is  the addition of sand from
another source to an  eroding natural
beach  thereby replacing the material
lost  to  erosion   and extending  the
natural  protection provided by  the
nearshore. To restore  an eroded beach
and stabilize it at the restored posi-
tion, material is placed directly along
the eroded sector and additional mate-
rial is stockpiled at the updrift  end of
the  problem area.  The  stockpiled
material  will then maintain  the re-
stored  portion of the  beach.  When
conditions  are suitable  for artificial
nourishment, long reaches of shore
may be protected  by  this method at a
relatively  low cost per linear foot of
shoreline.
 62

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         SECTION  IV

        FISH AND WILDLIFE

 The fish and  wildlife  of the  Chesa-
 peake  Bay Area contribute  in  many
 ways to  making  the Bay what it is
 today,  both in terms of commercial
 markets and in terms of recreational
 enjoyment. Increasingly, people  are
 turning to the out-of-doors for use of
 their leisure time, and fish and wildlife
 contribute both directly and indirectly
 to  the  value  of the outdoor experi-
 ence. Sport hunting and fishing,, for
 example, are  major activities of out-
 door enthusiasts, as  are such  activities
 as  birdwatching  and  nature photo-
 graphy. In addition, commercial  inter-
 ests rely on fish and wildlife  resources
 as  a source  of income  and employ-
 ment. The future requirements for fish
 and wildlife for commercial and recre-
 ational  uses  are the subject of this
 section. The strictly biological value of
 fish and  wildlife  as part of the Bay
 ecosystem is  discussed in Chapter  II.
 CURRENT STATUS

 COMMERCIAL FISHERIES
 A commercial fishery is a business that
 involves  catching, or "harvesting," a
 particular finfish or shellfish, deliver-
 ance of the product to the wholesale
 market,  and  subsequently  "process-
 ing" the product for the retail trade.
 "Harvesting" and "processing" are the
 terms used to describe the two particu-
 lar  sectors of the commercial fishing
 industry.

 In the harvesting sector,  average com-
 mercial  landings  during  the period
 1966 to  1970 totaled  381  million
 pounds   worth  nearly  $30  million.
 About 82 percent of this total harvest
 of finfish and shellfish was landed  in
 areas located  on   Chesapeake   Bay
 proper,  as shown in Table 35, with the
balance  being  landed in tributaries to
the Bay. Finfish consist of both edible
and  industrial  species. The latter in-
clude mainly menhaden and  alewives,
which together averaged 243 million
pounds  worth  $3.7 million  between
 1966  and  1970.  Menhaden   alone
accounted for 90 percent of all finfish
landings  by weight  in  1970. Edible
 finfish  types   include  striped  bass,
weakfish,  shad, catfish, bluefish, and
white perch, among others.
Shellfish,  which  are  commonly  har-
vested  commercially,  include  crabs,
oysters, and soft clams. Based on  data
presented in Table 35, shellfish  har-
vests between 1966 and 1970 averaged
 88   million  pounds   (excludes  shell
weight of clams and oysters) worth $23
million . The fact that shellfish repre-
sent the big money crop in Chesapeake
Bay  is illustrated in Figure 3.1  which
compares  finfish  with  shellfish in
terms of  both  landings weight  and
value. Shellfish comprise only  24 of
the   total   commercial  harvest   by
weight,  but a substantial 78 percent of
the total value.

The   most  recent data available on
commercial  harvests  of finfish  and
shellfish in  Chesapeake Bay are  for
1973. During  the year, commercial
landings of bluefish exceeded all  pre-
vious records at 2.8 million pounds as
did  landings of  the   gray sea trout
which were 4.4 million pounds. This is
a 93  percent increase  in poundage for
the latter species  and a 134 percent
increase in value  over  1972. Landings
of croaker were up 188 percent  after
being very scarce the previous 6 years.
In  contrast,  landings  of  alewives in
1973 were  nearly half of the  1970
catch and commercial catches of yel-
low  and white  perch  were  also down
markedly from  1970 levels.
Commercial shellfish harvests in 1973
were  of comparable magnitude to har-
vests  of 1966-1970, in terms of both
weight and value. Of interest, however,
is the fact that  oysters were harvested
in Maryland waters in quantities unex-
ceeded since 1937, despite the impacts
of Tropical Storm Agnes in 1972, and
that   harvests  in  Virginia  were  the
lowest on record. This apparent  dis-
crepancy can be explained by the fact
that  oysters in  Maryland experienced
good  reproductive years in 1969  and
1970 which resulted  in  oysters of
sufficient  size  to survive  the large
freshwater   influx  due  to  Agnes.
Oysters  in  the  State  did not have a
good  reproductive year  during  . the
1971-1976 period, however, and this is
expected  to affect  future  landings.
Factors  affecting the  Virginia oysters
include  a  disease  which invaded  the
Commonwealth's  oyster  beds in  the
early  1960's; poor reproductive years
prior  to  1973; and  the effects of
Agnes.  The  clam  landings, and to a
  Landings
  (Lbs.)
  (Millions)
   293 .
                         SHELLFISH
Figure 31'.AverageFinfish andShellfish
    Harvest, 1966-1970, Chesapeake
    Bay Region.

lesser  extent  crab catches,  in  both
States were down considerably  from
previous years due to a large extent to
the effects of Tropical  Storm Agnes.

Employment  in  the harvesting  and
processing sectors is also an important
component of the commercial fishing
industry.  The most  recent data  from
1973 show employment in the  com-
mercial harvesting sector to be about
17,400 full-time and  part-time fisher-
men operating nearly  12,000 vessels of
various sizes. The number of fishermen
in  the  Chesapeake  Bay  Region has
stayed  relatively constant since 1954,
fluctuating between a low of 16,800 in
1962 to a high of 20,200 in 1955. The
number of vessels has  also stayed  fairly
constant during this period.

In addition, in Maryland and Virginia,
about 7,100 persons were employed in
the processing sector  in wholesale and
processing plants in  1973.  Since fresh
seafood is highly perishable,  much of
the Chesapeake Bay catch is processed
and wholesaled in close proximity to
where the landings are made. Average
annual employment in the Chesapeake
Bay seafood wholesaling and process-
ing industries  has  been characterized
by modest gains since the early 1950's.
The  number  of  establishments has
declined steadily,  however, since the
late 1950's when the average number
of establishments  in  the Region was
704.
                                                                                                               63

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                                                    TABLE 35
                                          COMMERCIAL FISHERY HARVEST
                                                AVERAGE 1966-1970          ( j )
                                        CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TRIBUTARIES  v  '
                                                 (IN THOUSANDS)

                                                 Finfish
Water Area
Chesapeake Bay \ *•)
Chester River
Choptank River
Nanticoke River
Patuxent River
Wicomico River
Potomac River
Rappahannock River
York River
James River
TOTAL STUDY
AREA
Acres
2,041
35
69
18
• 30
10
310
98
55
166
2,832
Edible
Pounds Dollars
24,177
436
880
506
260
96
11,006
4,898
2,513
4,695
49,467
1,443
54
118
67
39
11
590
219
113
264
2,918
Industrial
Pounds Dollars
234,976
6
7
24
5
9
3,974
1,993
'1,577
1,125 •
243,696
3,590
Negl.
Negi.
1
Negl.
Negl.
73
35
30
20
3,749
Shellfish
Pounds Dollars
54,244
2,012
4,800
537
896
143
10,543
7,498
3,856
3,834
88,363
8,166
889
1,730
236
500
93
4,673
2,005
572
4,398
23,262
Total
Pounds Dollars
313,397
2,454
5,687
1,067
1,161
248
25,523
14,389
7,946
9,654 '
381,526
13,199
943
1,848
304
539
104
5,336
2,259
715
4,682
29,929
'  'This table was based on preliminary unpublished data developed in 1972.
^  ' Bay proper exclusive of  tributaries.
     This  fact  reflects the National
trend in recent decades toward larger
establishments of higher employment.
Most of the seafood  processing and
wholesaling  establishments  in  the
Chesapeake Bay Region were located
in the Northern Neck area of Virginia
(i.e., the tidewater portion of Virginia
between the Potomac and Rappahan-
nock Rivers) and  on the  middle and
lower  portions of the Maryland and
Virginia Eastern Shore.

 COMMERCIAL FURBEARERS

 A significant economic resource of the
 Bay  Region, but  one that is often
 overlooked, is the furbearing mammals
 of the wetland  and terrestrial habitats
 found  within  the Study Area. Fur-
 bearing species commonly trapped in
 the Study Area are beaver, gray fox,
 red  fox,  mink,  muskrat, opossum,
 otter,  raccoon, skunk,  weasel,  and
 bobcat. The  muskrat is  of primary
 economic  importance since it provides
 approximately 69 percent of the total
 income  of Bay  trappers.  The  fur har-
 vest for the 1971-72 season in Mary-
 land  and  Virginia  was valued  at
approximately $1.8 million, including
the meat value of certain of the species
(especially muskrat). Although specific
data are not available, a major portion
of the total bi-state fur harvest is felt
by  experts  to  derive, from the  Bay
Region. In addition, it should be noted
that the value of the harvest represents
money  paid trappers  and  does  not
represent  economic activity  generated
in the processing and retailing sectors
of the industry.

SPORT FISHING AND
HUNTING

Increases  in income, population,  and
available leisure  time  have stimulated
increases in sport fishing and hunting
in the Chesapeake Bay Area. Recrea-
tional fishing accounts for a significant
portion  of the  total landings  for
several species offish within  the Study
Area, including, in order of pounds
landed  in 1970: spot, striped bass,
white perch, weakfish, shad, croaker,
flounder,  yellow perch,  catfish,  and
bluefish. All of these but striped bass,
flounder,  and  catfish  actually  ex-
ceeded the commercial catch, demon-
strating the importance of recreational
fishing in the Bay. Shellfish are also
taken by a considerable number  of
people on a recreational basis. It has
been  estimated  that  blue  crabs are
 sought by as many people as are game
 fish, and that the recreational quantity
 caught  may equal the  whole  com-
 mercial harvest. Definitive statistics on
 recreational harvests  of shellfish are
 not available.
Hunting is also an important form of
recreation  within the  Study  Area.
Upland forests, farm lands, wetlands
and open  water are utilized as a source
of food or shelter for various species
of game  animals. The  upland  forest
and farm land provide habitat for deer,
rabbit, squirrel, woodchuck,  raccoon,
and  opossum as  well as game  birds
such as turkey, quail, dove, woodcock.
and  others.  More closely associated
with the  Bay are the  many species
which  depend on the  wetlands  and
open water for their habitat require-
ments. The most significant  of these
are the numerous species of waterfowl
 64

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which  winter in  the  Bay  area and
provide many  man-days  of hunting
experience for outdoor enthusiasts, as
well as' significant economic benefit to
the Region. Expenditures  for licenses,
hunting  land leases,  food, lodging,
gasoline, club memberships, and equip-
ment are estimated to amount to $300
to   $500   annually  per  waterfowl
hunter. The estimated annual value of
waterfowl  hunting  in  the  State  of
Maryland   is  10.5  to  17.5  million
dollars.


NON-CONSUMPTIVE UTILIZATION
OF RESOURCES

The wetland and  upland habitat as
well as the waters of the Bay  and its
tributaries provide habitats which sup-
port an extensive  variety of flora and
fauna.  These  organisms  provide  a
source  of recreation to large numbers
of people  who  enjoy birdwatching,
nature  walking and nature photog-
raphy.  Research  indicates   that  the
number of people  in the U.S. in 1970
that   participated  in   these   non-
consumptive outdoor  activities  was
about   9   percent  higher  than  the
number of people  fishing and hunting.
Aside  from the  enjoyment which is
gained  from an association  with the
natural resources of the area, the Bay,
its tributaries, associated wetlands, and
upland areas provide valuable  educa-
tional   services   as  classrooms  for
natural science studies.

EXISTING PROBLEMS AND
CONFLICTS
With  growth of  the  population and
development of the economy in the
Bay   Area,  conflicts   have  arisen
between the need for more intensive
use  of the existing land  and water
resources and the need for  these same
resources to maintain fish and wildlife
populations. This is especially true in
the wetland areas where dredge-and-fill
operations  have  been performed to
develop  industrial   and  agricultural
lands, and to provide for second home
development, and marinas.

Water  quality problems, which have
also  become more  pronounced with
increased economic development and
population growth,  have serious impli-
cations for fish and wildlife. Almost
 every  activity of man in the Chesa-
 peake  Bay  Area  produces a  waste
 product that often is most  conven-
 iently dumped  in a  nearby  river or
 stream.  These  tributaries  invariably
 flow to the  Bay. Problems  that result
 are  as varied as  the constituents them-
 selves.  With  trie many new  substances
 being developed each  year,  the task of
 assessing the effects  on  the  environ-
 ment of the  resulting effluents and the
 possible  interrelationships  between
 constituent and other variables, such
 as  temperature  and salinity,  may al-
 ready be impossible.
 Conflicts  and  problems   also  arise
 within the internal  workings  of the
 various elements of the fish and wild-
 life management structure. This is be-
 cause  management  of the wildlife,
 fisheries, and shellfish resources of the
 Chesapeake  Bay and its tributaries  is
 the responsibility of several organiza-
 tions  including the  Federal Govern-
 ment, the States  of Maryland, Dela-
 ware,  and Virginia, and the Potomac
 River   Fisheries   Commission.  The
 inconsistencies in laws promulgated by
. these  organizations create  conflicts in
 the management practices and  utiliza-
 tion of  the  resource. In  the  case  of
 migratory birds, for example, the basic
 regulations  regarding bag limits and
 the number  of days a species may  be
 hunted  during  a  season  are  set by
 Federal   regulation.  However, the
 actual  dates for   the  opening  of  a
 season are determined by  the  States
 under guidelines   set  forth  by the
 Federal  regulations. The hunters of a
 state  having a  later  opening  date,
 therefore, often feel that they will
 have a  decreased  chance  for  success
 since  the species   sought  has  been
 previously hunted  in  a  neighboring
 state and may be "gun shy." Crabbing
 regulations are another example of this
 type of problem.  Virginia  allows the
 dredging of wintering crabs which are
 buried in the Bay bottom while Mary-"
 land forbids this activity. Many Mary-
 landers feel that this dredging depletes
 the supply  of crabs which would  be
 available to them the following  season.
 Also,  the management and regulation
 of anadromous  fish  catches  in the
 Lower  Chesapeake   Bay  obviously
 affects the fishery  in the Upper Bay.
 For example, concentrated offshore
 fishing efforts for  herring (under the
jurisdiction  of the  Federal  Govern-
ment) have greatly reduced the spawn-
ing runs of this species in the Bay each
spring.


Fluctuations that occur in finfish and
shellfish populations are another prob-
lem to be considered. Historically, the
populations  of  many   species  have
varied cyclically over periods of years,
due to complex biological factors such
as predator-prey relationships^ physical
and chemical factors such as changes
in salinities  due to long term drought
or rainy periods; or man-caused factors
such as pollution or level of exploita-
tion of the resource. These causative
factors are far from being understood,
much less controlled. Fluctuations in
Maryland  blue crab  populations, as
indicated  by  landings,   are a classic
example  of this  "boom" or  "bust"
phenomenon.   For  example,  in  the
State of Maryland between 1953 and
1957 the  catch went from 28 million
bushels  down to  16  million and then
back up to slightly less than 32 million
bushels.   The  all-time   record   low
harvest  for Maryland  of 10  million
bushels in 1968 was followed in 1969
by  a respectable 25 million bushels
(the all-time record high  for the State
was 37  million bushels).  There are at
least two  major factors in explaining
the volatility of'the blue crab popula-
tion. First, its short life span of two to
three years  creates a high "turnover"
of crabs. Second, the crabs caught in
Maryland  are  transported as larva and
tiny . crabs   from  their spawning
grounds in  Virginia  into the  upper
Estuary. The  condition of the upper
Estuary when  the young crabs arrive
and the physical, chemical, and biolog-
ical stresses they must endure during
their journey are  critical  to the Mary-
land harvest the following years.  It is
interesting to note that in 1968 when
the Maryland catch dropped by nearly
two-thirds, the Virginia catch was off
by only about one-fifth.-

The striped bass population in Chesa-
peake Bay also follows distinct cycles.
There are  several factors suspected of
producing  a  "dominant-year  class"
including  some little understood  bio-
logical   mechanism  which triggers  a
larger  than normal  hatch when  the
adult population has declined below a
certain  level.  This phenomenon  has
also been observed  in other species.
                                                                                                                65

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Some  researchers  believe  that  the
number of rockfish (striped bass) in
the  Bay is inversely related to the
bluefish  population since  the more
aggressive bluefish  compete for the
same food supply  and  even prey on
the  young striped  bass. As  the blue
crab and striped bass  examples indi-
cate, often  drastic  fluctuations in
species  populations  are  a  natural
phenomenon.   However,   since  the
reasons  for this phenomenon are not
completely understood, it is extremely
difficult to separate the natural fluctu-
ations from  fluctuations  caused  by
man-related factors such  as  excess
nutrients, thermal effluents,  sedimen-
tation, or other pollutants.

 FUTURE FISH AND
 WILDLIFE NEEDS

 FINFISHAND SHELLFISH

 Needs for fish and shellfish resources
 were obtained through comparison of
 future demand with available supply.
 Functions of future demand involved
 such  parameters  as   market  price,
 projections of commercial and recre-
 ational catch, and costs of the harvest-
 ing effort. Population  dynamics for
 each species were  based,  in part, on
 estimates  of  maximum  sustainable
 yields (MSVs). MSVs are defined as
 the  greatest  harvest   which can  be
 taken  from  a  population  without
 affecting subsequent harvests.

 Typical supply versus  demand curves
 are shown in Figure 32  to illustrate the
 relationship  between  MSY, supply,
 demand, and commodity price. The
 term  "supply"  refers  only to  the
 amount   commercially   harvested.
 Excess demand is shown for the years
 2000 and 2020 where  the demand
 curves  do not  intersect  the  supply
 curve.  In these cases, sufficient sup-
 plies cannot be had at any price since
 the MSY has been exceeded. Sustained
 harvesting beyond the MSY results in
 eventual decline in the species popula-
 tion due  to  overharvesting. As total
 harvest of a species approaches MSY,
 it   was  assumed   that   recreational
 catches  will   have precedence  over
 those in the commercial sector. As a
 result,  commercial catches of many
 recreationally  important  species are
 actually projected  to decline over the
 projection period.
                                 TABLE 36
     PROJECTED PERIOD OF EXCEEDENCE OF MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD
           (MSY) FOR THE MAJOR COMMERCIAL AND SPORTS SPECIES
     Species

Blue Crab

Oysters

Softshell Gams

Menhaden

Alewife

Spot

Striped Bass

White Perch

Shad

Weakflsh (Sea Trout)

Flounder

Catfish

Scup

Sea Bass

American Eel

Yellow Perch
 Base Year Catches*
           Percent
 l.OOOlbs     MSY
                                        	Period of MSY Exceedence	

                                        Prior to 1980   1980-2000   2000-2020
 61,373       94	X

 23,740      79	X

  5,412       90	X

449,790       90	X

 21,110       84	X

 14,193       96	X

 11,159       96	X

  7,225       64	-	X

  7,120   .    93	X

  5,174       81	X

  4,575       89	X

  2,440       54	(will not-be exceeded before 2020)

  2,281       35	(will not be exceeded before 2020)

  2,084      42	(will not be exceeded before 2020)

  1,692      99-	

  1,511       44	(will not be exceeded before 2020)
 ' Represents commercial plus recreational catch except for blue crabs, oysters, and soft clams.
  Results of the analysis, conducted  as
  described above for each species, are
  shown in Table 36. All of the commer-
  cially  and   recreationally  important
  species,  with  four  exceptions, are
  projected to experience  commercial
  and recreational pressures  which will
  exceed  their MSY's  at  some  time
  during the projection  period.  MSY is
  expected to  be exceeded for half  of
  the species by the year 2000. Of this
  latter group, with  the exception of the
  blue crab and American eel, projected
  increases in  recreational  catches are
  the major reason for the early exceed-
  ence of  MSY.  Oysters,  soft  clams,
  menhaden, and alewife are primarily
  commercial species which explains, at
  least in part, the later  period for MSY
  exceedenc^)-Catfish,  scup, sea  bass,
  and yellow perch  populations are cap-
  able of withstanding significant in-
  creases  in fishing intensity, without
  adverse  effect.  All four species are
  underutilized  commercially   for   a
                      number  of  social   and  economic
                      reasons.

                      It should be noted that as commercial
                      and recreational demands increase rela-
                      tive  to  the capacity  of  the fisheries,
                      the  market  system  responds by  in-
                      creasing  prices.  For example, the
                      prices, after  adjustment  for inflation,
                      of blue crabs, oysters, and striped bass
                      are expected to increase by 525 per-
                      cent, 194  percent, and  967 percent,
                      respectively,  between 1970 and 2020.
                      The upward pressure on  prices is espe-
                      cially acute due to the basic assump-
                      tion  used in  the  analysis  that  as
                      catches approach MSY, recreational
                      utilization  of these finfish and shellfish
                      species will take precedence over com-
                      mercial uses.

                       THE HAR VESTING AND
                      PROCESSING SECTORS

                       Future needs  in the harvesting and
 66

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processing  sectors of the commercial
fisheries industry  will be affected by
the projections of future market price
and demand presented in the previous
section.  The  decrease in commercial
landings indicated  for  a  majority  of
the finfish species for  which projec-
tions  were made  was  interpreted  as
revealing a contraction in the finfish
segment of the harvesting sector. While
increases in  commercial  landings  of
some  finfish  species  were  revealed,
most notably yellow perch, catfish, sea
bass,  and alewife,  these are not con-
sidered to  be large enough  to offset
the employment losses in the declining
fisheries.

Of the projections  made for  the three
shellfish species,   the  predicted  in-
creases in oyster landings was the only
result  considered  to be significant to
the harvesting sector.  The  predicted
landing increases,  however, cannot be
interpreted  as  implying  a  need for
expansion  of  employment  in  the
oyster harvesting industry. Of critical
importance is the present  capacity of
the oyster fishery  and the degree to
which it is utilized. Currently, in Mary-
land, for example, each licensed oys-
terman is  limited  to a catch of  25
bushels per day. Assuming two persons
per rig, the catch  limit would be  50
bushels. Experience has indicated that
various rigs are capable of harvesting
two or three  times this  quantity. In
light of this, it was concluded that the
present  capacity   of  the  harvesting
sector of the oyster industry would be
sufficient to meet future demands.
The future of  the  processing sector
was found to be a function  of the
projections for  alewife,  menhaden,
oyster,  blue crabs,  and clams. Since
commercial catches  of these  species
are generally expected  to increase  or
remain fairly constant over the  projec-
tion period, the projections of yield
appear,  at  a minimum,  to be capable
of  supporting a  processing sector  of
current  size and degree of utilization.

WILDLIFE

Future needs for wildlife in the Chesa-
peake Bay Area were determined  in
terms of  recreation days  of  hunter
participation for small game, big game,
and waterfowl. Hunting demands were
based on license price, population, and
expected  hunter participation rates.
For big game, since hunter effort  in
this category  has   historically been
insensitive to license  price, projections
were made a  function  of population
only. The projected demands for small
game  and waterfowl  hunting were
made  based on the assumption  that
license prices  will increase in the fu-
ture.

As  shown in  Figure  33,  waterfowl
hunting,  perhaps economically  the
most important type of hunting effort
in  the  Bay Region, is projected  to
increase  by  70  percent  during the
projection period. Big game hunting is
projected  to increase  at  the highest
rate of any of the three  types  of
hunting effort in the Bay Region (141
percent) and by 2020 is expected  to
be the most popular type of hunting in
the Region.  Small game  hunting  de-
mand is  projected to decline over  the
projection period.
The amount  of land available for  the
use of hunters as well as the amount of
habitat for the game animals were  the
critical factors in determining supply.
It was not deemed practical to project
the numbers of individuals within a
given  species  available for hunting pur-
poses. The increase in the amount of
land  needed  to satisfy future hunting
needs was assumed to be proportional
to the increase in hunting effort. Based
on this, land access requirements will
increase by 7, 35, and 61 percent, by.
1980, 2000,  and  2020, respectively^
over the amount available in 1970.   "
Factors  affecting  the  accessibility  of
land to  hunters, and the maintenance
and   health   of  game   populations
include:

   1) conversion   of   farm   and
woodlands to urban and suburban land
uses;
   2)  reluctance  of  land  owners to
open private lands to recreationists;

   3) single-purpose leasing of agricul-
tural and other lands for hunting;

   4) impact of  large-scale  modern
farming on reduction of habitat;

   5) single  species tree farming prac-
tices which decrease wildlife use;

   6) use of herbicides for weed con-
trol which eliminates small game habi-
tat.
                                           Big Game
                                           Recreation Days (Millions)
                                           Waterfowl
                                           Recreation Days (Millions)
                                                     •2000
                                                                                            •2020
Figure 33: Projected Hunter Effort in the Chesapeake.Say Region
                                                                                                                67

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NON-CONSUMPTIVE WILDLIFE

Future  needs for wildlife  to support
such  non-consumptive   uses  as  bird
watching,  wildlife  photography, and
just plain  enjoyment of nature,  are
expected to increase with future popu-
lation and  increases in leisure time. As
shown in Figure 34, non-consumptive
wildlife  utilization in terms of recre-
ation days in the Chesapeake Bay Area
(excluding nature walking) is projected
to  increase at  a slightly higher rate
than the population. Nature walking is
expected to increase at a rate equal to
population growth. A total increase of
34.6  million  recreation  days is  pro-
jected to occur by the year 2020.
As in the hunting analysis, the factors
most affecting the provision of a qual-
ity   non-consumptive   recreational
experience are-the availability of suit-
able habitats for wildlife and  the pro-
vision of public  access. At  the present
time the amount of land and wildlife
habitat which is available  to the non-
consumptive  resource  user  in  the
Study Area  includes about 814,000
acres of public, semi-public and  park
lands. An add:tional 11.5 million acres
of privately  owned agricultural  lands,
woodlands and  wetlands are located in
the   Bay, an unknown  quantity  of
which  is  accessible  to  the public.
Assuming a constant percentage of the
resources users will continue to use the
non-public  areas,  future  projections
can be made regarding the acreage of
public lands required to provide non-
consumptive  resources users  with  an
experience  of  equal  quality to the
present  recreational experience.  These
projections are shown in Table 37.
               TABLE 37
      PUBLIC LAND REQUIRED TO
   MEET FUTURE NON-CONSUMPTIVE
       RECREATIONAL DEMAND
 Year

 1970

 1980

 2000

 2020
 Number
of Rec Days

18,130,000.

21,448,000

30,871,000

41,078,000
 Acres of
Public Land

   814,000

   964,000

 1,387,000

 1,845,000
                            The most significant problem facing
                            the   provision  of  land   for  non-
                            consumptive wildlife purposes is  the
                            inevitable conflicts  with  other  land
                            uses in a developing area such as the
                            Chesapeake Bay Region. For the bird
                            watcher,  wildlife photographer,  and
                            nature walker, a quality  experience
                            relies  upon a variety and abundance of
                            wildlife  in  a  natural   uncrowded
                            setting. Because of expected increases
                            in population  and development pres-
                            sures, there is  a threat  of degradation
                            in many areas. For example, the devel-
                            opment of lands adjacent  to recrea-
                            tional areas may cause overutilization,
                            noise, and  the disappearance of seclu-
                            sive species, all of  which  reduce the
                            desirability of the area.

                            MEANS TO SATISFY
                            THE NEEDS

                            SHELLFISH
                            Demands for oysters, blue crabs, and
                            softshell clams are projected to exceed
                            MSY  by the  end  of the projection
                            period. The supply of oysters can, and
                            presently is,  being  supplemented by
                            the management and cultivation of the
                            species  by  both State  and  private
                            interests. More intensive effort in this
                            regard would  help to satisfy the ex-
                            pected demands over the projection
                            period.  The  cultivation  of softshell
                            clams, while not presently practiced, is
                            a possible  means of  meeting excess
                            demands for this species. The possi-
                                                    bility  also  exists  that  other species
                                                    may be harvested to fulfill some of the
                                                    demand for softshell clams. The substi-
                                                    tution could derive from an increased
                                                    harvest of hard clams (which unfor-
                                                    tunately  are already over harvested  in
                                                    some areas), or more likely from util-
                                                    ization  of a  species  such  as the
                                                    brackish  water clam (Rangia cuneata),
                                                    which  at  present   is  not  sought
                                                    commercially.

                                                    The cost of culture practices for blue
                                                    crabs  would probably be  prohibitive
                                                    due  to  fluctuations in  the  natural
                                                    supply and market  price. This  vari-
                                                    ability would keep the  culture of the
                                                    species  from  being  profitable  on a
                                                    regular basis. Thus, if the need is to  be
                                                    satisfied, it will  probably be by in-
                                                    creasing  the blue crab harvest in other
                                                    areas  such  as  South  Carolina  or
                                                    Louisiana and importing into the Bay
                                                    Region.
                                                    INDUSTRIAL FINFISH

                                                    The demand for both menhaden and
                                                    alewife, the major industrial species in
                                                    Chesapeake Bay,  is projected  to  ex-
                                                    ceed the MSY by 2020. Since artificial
                                                    cultivation  of  most estuarine  finfish
                                                    species  is  either  uneconomical   or
                                                    impractical,  substitute   species   or
                                                    products  will  have to  be found  in
                                                    order  to  fulfill  the  needs for  the
                                                    products  derived  from these  species.
                                                    For example, soy beans are currently
                                  Birdwatching
                                  & Nature Photography, etc
                                                      Nature Walking
                                                      Recreation Days (Millions)
14.5
   2000
                     2020
                                         Figure 34:  Projected Non-Consumptive Wildlife-Related Outdoor Activity in the
                                                   Chesapeake Bay Region
 68

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 being  processed  to  produce  many
 products which can be substituted for
 menhaden   and  alewife. Agriculture
 cannot, however, be considered as the
 ultimate solution  to meeting  these
 demands since  the  production  cap-
 abilities of these lands are  finite  and
 they  must  also be used  to meet the
 demands for other products.
 NON-INDUSTRIAL FINFISH
 Edible species  commonly sought by
 sport and commercial fishermen in the
 Bay  include white perch, striped bass,
 shad, flounder, spot, weakfish,  eel,
 yellow perch, sea bass, scup, and  cat-
 fish. Of these eleven  species only the
 last four  are projected to have supplies
 that  will meet the demands through
 the  year  2020 as shown  earlier in
 Table 36. When considering the means
 to satisfy the needs for these species, a
 first  alternative might  be a manage-
 ment program  to  insure  increased
 production of these species by improv-
 ing  habitat,  or  by  controlling  the
 harvest of individual  species based on
 population surveys.

 If management practices  are  to be
 effectively implemented on a Bay-wide
 basis, records  of  the sport  fishing
 utilization are necessary. One method
 of providing this information  and at
 the same time providing funds for the
 initiation of management and research
 programs would be through the sale of
-•salt  water  fishing  licenses. Although
 this  proposal has been suggested  and
 rejected previously, it is still a viable
 method  for  gaining  the  data   and
 knowledge necessary to insure contin-
 uance of a quality  fishery in the Bay.

 The harvest  of under-utilized  species
 has provided an interim solution to the
 fulfillment of  the  needs  for fisheries
 products  on  previous  occasions  and
 could be an aid  in the fulfillment of
 the needs for overall production in the
 future. Care should be taken, however,
 to  provide  management  practices to
 protect the under-utilized species from
 depletion once a  market is  opened.
 Such exploitation  has occurred with
 the  surf clam. Because  of a lack of
 restrictions  and  an available market,
 vast areas of once productive surf clam
 beds have been rapidly depleted.
WILDLIFE
The  lack of information  concerning
factors that influence the  population
of many wildlife species, and possible
future changes in human utilization of
these species hinders an accurate deter-
mination of future needs. Due to this,
any  consideration  of the  means  to
satisfy the needs must, of necessity, be
in  generalized  terms.  Because   the
projections indicate greatly increased
demands  for  wildlife resources,  the
means to be  discussed i~ this section
will  include  methods for  increasing
supply and availability.

As implied previously, the problem of
maintaining  an   adequate  supply  of
wildlife   to  meet  all our  projected
needs  must  be  considered on  two
levels—the pnmary level  being  the
requirements  that  must  be  met  in
order for wildlife  to sustain viable
populations; the secondary level being
a problem of providing access to the
wildlife  for human  use. As is the case
with public acquisition, of key wildlife
habitat,  the  solution to  these  two
problems may coincide.

Other than the actual hunting of the
animals,  wildlife populations are  im-
pacted by two  major areas of man's
activities. These are  land use and pollu-
tion, with land use  probably the most
significant.

 If  the   land  use  problem  is to  be
 resolved, a  firm commitment on the
 part  of  the  public  and  responsible
 public  officials   will be  required to
 conserve  existing  desirable  wildlife
 habitat,  reclaim  certain lands to sup-
 port  desired  wildlife types, acquire
 additional public lands, and discourage
 land use  practices which are unneces-
 sarily destructive of wildlife habitat.
 These measures would help insure
 stabilization and enhancement of wild-
 life populations. Strict zoning will be
 required to regulate land use. Coupled
 with  zoning,  purchasing  mechanisms
 such  as  bond issues  should be devel-
 oped to  buy those lands  considered
especially important to  wildlife.  If
purchase  is not  desirable,  then long-
term  leasing  arrangements  offer  an
alternative, in conjunction with  tax
incentives to affected land owners.
Pollution, a by-product of civilization,
also has a significant effect on wildlife
populations. A prime example of the
adverse impact of pollution on wildlife
is the absence  of  many species  of
fish-eating furbearers  along  stretches
of  water  that  are  polluted.  Other
examples  include the impact of chlo-
rinated hydrocarbons on the  repro-
ductive success  of fish-eating  carniv-
orous  birds such  as the osprey and
bald eagle,  and  the as yet unknown
effects of trace metal consumption by
certain species of waterfowl and shore
and wading birds. Oil pollution  can
also cause a serious adverse impact  on
aquatic oriented  bird  populations. In
the  Bay  Region, thousands  of bird
deaths have resulted  from oil spills.
The solution to this type of problem
lies with careful and thorough enforce-
ment of existing pollution control laws
and with  the  vigorous pursuit of new
technology to control and abate pollu-
tion sources.
Other  than the need for viable wildlife
populations themselves, is the need for
increased  land access to the resource.
Purchase   of  additional  lands  partic-
ularly  valuable  to wildlife certainly
offers  a  partial  solution to meeting
these needs. Land purchase, of course,
should not  be considered a complete
answer to land access shortages. Com-
bined with purchase of lands especially
valuable  to  wildlife,  a  program  of
wildlife access leases  could also  be
instituted.  Such  leases  could  be  an
adjunct to  the -wildlife management
leases  previously proposed. The pur-
pose of the combined wildlife manage-
ment  and  access, lease would  be  to
provide large areas where wildlife habi-
tat can be actively managed and where
access  by  the  wildlife  viewer and
hunter would be .allowed on a man-
aged basis. A  fee for all wildlife users
could be charged to supply funding for
the program.  Success  of such a pro-
gram would depend to a large extent
on  cooperation  between the  wildlife
utilization groups, the involved state
agencies,   and the   individual  land
owners.

There  are   undoubtedly  numerous
other  approaches to the  problems. A
key realization that must underlie any
successful solution is that the threat to
fish and wildlife is not the sole respon-
sibility of the sport  and commercial
fisherman nor the hunter or commer-
cial trapper. The real  threats to these
                                                                                                                   69

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resources  are adverse land and water
uses and an apathetic attitude on the
part of the public toward preserving
fish and  wildlife  habitat.  If  these
factors can  be incorporated into  a
comprehensive  conservation,  enhance-
ment,   and   preservation   program
directed  toward maintaining quality
habitat, then an effective program can
be developed to balance human utiliza-
tion with the productive capability  of
the resource. Until such programs are
in effect the resource manager will  be
faced  with a continuously dwindling
resource  base  and a concurrent and
continuous increase in resource needs.
        ELECTRIC POWER

CURRENT STATUS

POWER REQUIREMENTS AND
GENERATING FACILITIES

In  studying   the   electric  power
resources of Chesapeake  Bay, a geo-
graphic area encompassing the electric
utilities serving the Bay  Region was
defined. This area, the Chesapeake Bay
Market Area, is delineated in Figure
 35.

 The total number of utilities serving
 the Chesapeake Market Area is 74. The
 utilities  are  of  varied  ownerships:
 private  corporations,   municipalities,
 consumer  cooperatives,   and   the
 Federal  government.  Investor-owned
 utilities  provide 90  percent  of the
 energy requirements for the  Market
 and are responsible  for 95 percent of
 the electricity  generated.' They also
 operate  virtually  all   of  the  trans-
 mission  facilities.  The  municipally-
 owned utilities are small  and  derive
 most  or  all of their energy from the
 large investor-owned utilities with only
 minimal  generation of their own. The
 cooperatively-owned  utilities for the
 most  part  purchase  all  their energy
 from  other utilities. Where  they  do
 have generating capacity, it is in small
 plants with  relatively little output.
 There is only one Federal utility in the
 Market Area, the Kerf  and Philpott
 Project.  This project, operated by the
 U.S.  Army Corps of Engineers, pro-
 duces  wholesale energy  for  many of
 the cooperatives in Chesapeake South
 and other utilities outside the Market
 Area.
The  utilities within the Chesapeake
Market  Area operate as bulk power
suppliers,   wholesale  generators,  or
wholesale  purchasers. The bulk power
suppliers  operate substantially  all of
the generating and  transmission  facil-
ities in  the Chesapeake Market. They,
besides  furnishing their own franchise
requirements,  sell  large  amounts of
energy  to  other   utilities,  mainly
municipals and cooperatives.

Wholesale generators operate a gener-
ating plant  and sometimes associated
transmission lines  and sell the entire
output  to other utilities under  long-
term contracts. There are  two such
utilities in the  Market Area, the Kerr
and Philpott Project and Susquehanna
Electric  Company;   both   operate
hydroelectic plants.

Wholesale  purchasers  are  the  most
numerous of the utilities in the Chesa-
peake  Market.  They  buy  energy  at
bulk rates from bulk power suppliers
 or wholesale generators and resell it to
 their own retail customers. In several
 instances the purchased energy is sup-
 plemented  by  a  minor  amount  of
 self-generation.  They are of municipal,
 investor,  or cooperative ownership.


 MARKET SECTORS

 In recognition of the geographical and
 technical characteristics of the Market
 Area utilities,  the  Market was divided
 into three Sectors: Chesapeake West,
 Chesapeake  East, and   Chesapeake
 South. As  shown in Figure 35,  Chesa-
 peake  West includes the  Baltimore-
 Washington  corridor  of  the
 Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland
 power interconnection  (PJM  Pool);
 Chesapeake East takes in the Delmarva
 Peninsula portion of the  PJM Pool;
 and Chesapeake South covers the Vir-
 ginia  portion   of  the  Virginia-North
 Carolina-South Carolina  power inter-
 connection (VACAR Pool). Figure 36
 shows the relative energy requirements
 in  each  market sector as of 1972. A
 brief description of  each  sector
 follows.

     a. Chesapeake   West.  There  are
 three  utilities  which serve the Chesa-
 peake West sector: the Potomac Elec-
 tric Power Company, Baltimore Gas
 and   Electric   Company,  and   the
Southern Maryland Electric Coopera-
tive.  The   energy  requirements  of
Chesapeake West in 1972 were 28,252
gigawatthours  while the  amount of
energy generated was 32,311 gigawatt-
hours. Almost all of this excess energy
was   delivered  to  more   northerly
members of the PJM pool outside the
Chesapeake  Bay  Market  with  only
minor amounts  flowing  into Chea-
peake South. The generating facilities
are all in investor-owned utilities with
86 percent  of the total  generation
accounted  for by fossil steam plants
and  the  remainder  by  combustion
plants. Southern Maryland  Electric
Cooperative purchases its entire needs
from  the   Potomac   Electric  Power
Company. It is the largest cooperative
in  the Market Area with energy re-
quirements  in  1972 of 676 gigawatt-
hours.

   b. Chesapeake  East.  Chesapeake
East  has 24 utilities: 8 investor-owned,
 13 municipally-owned, and 3 cooper-
atives.   The  largest  investor-owned
utility,  Delmarva  Power  and  Light
Company, supplies more than half of
the  Sector's energy requirements and
accounts for  about 2/3 of its gener-
ation. The energy used in this Sector
in 1972 was 7,370 gigawatthours while
8,876 gigawatthours  was  generated.
Approximately   65  percent  of  the
energy was generated in fossil steam
plants, 11 percent in combustion facil-
ities, and 24 percent in a single hydro-
 electric  plant  at Conowingo on  the
 Susquehanna  River in Maryland. The
 bulk  of the  excess  generation came
 from the hydroelectric plant and was
 delivered to the more northerhly parts
 of the PJM Pool beyond  the Market
 boundaries.   Easton   Municipal,  the
 Market Area's only isolated utility, is
 located  in  Chesapeake East. Easton's
 entire energy requirements of 75 giga-
 watthours in 1972 were furnished  by
 this combustion plant.

    c. Chesapeake   South.   Three
 investor-owned  utilities,  23  munic-
 ipals,  20   cooperatives,   and   one
 Federally-operated    project   serve
 Chesapeake South. The energy require-
 ment of  this   Sector  in  1972  was
 29,474  gigawatthours  while  26,414
 gigawatthours were  generated.  There
 was  a modest net import of electricity,
 almost  entirely   from  outside  the
 Chesapeake Bay Market Area. Virginia
  70

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         F/'gure 35: Chesapeake Bay Market Sector and Study Area
Electric and Power Company account-
ing for about 90% of both energy and
generation  is  the major utility  in
Chesapeake South. The  only  other
significant generation in the  Sector is
at the Kerr and Philpott Project of the
Corps of  Engineers. This  project pro-
duced 698 gigawatthours from its two
hydroelectric  plants,  which  was de-
livered at  wholesale rates  to cooper-
atives in the Sector and certain utilities
beyond the Market boundaries. Fossil
fuel steam  plants  accounted for 70
percent of total  generating capacity,
nuclear steam  for 13 percent, combus-
tion plants for 9 percent, and hydro
facilities for 8 percent.
Figure 37 shows the "energy account"
for the  Chesapeake Bay Market Area
in  1972.  This energy  account  is  a
flowchart  showing the source and dis-
position  of energy for each of the
three  Sectors.  For example, in Chesa-
peake  East,  8,876 gigawatthours of
electricity  were generated during the
year-6,429 by fossil fuel plants, 2,243
by  hydroelectric  plants and 204 by
combustion plants.  Of the total gener-
ation  of  8,876 gigawatthours, 2,426
were sold to  customers outside the
Chesapeake Bay Market Area. On the
other hand, utilities in the Chesapeake
East Sector bought 847 gigawatthours
of electricity from utilities outside the
Market Area. In addition, 73 gigawatt-
hours of electricity were bought from
industrial and  commercial concerns in
the Market Area which  operate gener-
ating plants for their own internal use.
The 7,370 gigawatthours figure repre-
sents the total energy requirements of
the  Chesapeake East Sector—the net
sum of total generation, receipts, and
deliveries.  Similar,   more   detailed
energy accounts are presented for each
Sector  in   Appendix   13-"Electric
Power."
EXISTING POWER
FACILITIES

As shown on Table 38, approximately
91 percent of the electric power pro-
duced in the Market Area was gener-
ated by fossil steam generation plants
using coal, oil, or gas as fuels.  Oil was

Chesapeake
(Gigawatthours)
WEST
28,252
EAST
msmm^;
•jjj:mmm ;.
M
:.: .'.'.':.•-.-.-. v. v.;v^::.'
SOUTH
»
P|r,
29,474


Figure 36: Total Energy Requirements
           of Chesapeake Bay Market
           Sectors,  1972

the most frequently used type of fossil
fuel in 1972. The remainder of the
electricity  was  produced  by hydro-
power,  nuclear  or combustion facil-
ities. The only nuclear plant in opera-
tion at the time in  the Market Area
(located at Surry, Virginia) operated at
less than full capacity during 1972. In
1973, the first year of full service for
the plant,  approximately 6,900 giga-
watthours   of   electricity   were
produced.  Another nuclear plant  of
similar capacity  began  operations in
May, 1975 at Calvert Cliffs, Maryland.
Shown  in  Figure  38 are  the  power
plants  which were  located  in  the
Chesapeake Bay  Market Area in 1972.
In addition to the power plants them-
selves,  many  miles  of  major trans-
mission lines are required in order for
a modem utility to efficiently serve its
customers. The  Chesapeake Bay Mar-
ket  Area  has   approximately  2,672
                                                                                                               71

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      fossil
      31189

OUTSIDE CHESAPEAKE BAY

combustion
1122
/
'
ee
04
5(
13
24

26
8

fossil
6429
\7

h
zi
                                                        hydro
                                             combustion
                                              204
Figure 37: Energy Account for Chesapeake Bay Market Area, 1972
miles of 230 to  500 kilovolt  (KV)
transmission lines. These size lines are
supported by steel towers. In addition,
131  miles of  138  KV transmission
lines, usually  supported  by  wood
frames although steel poles and towers
are occasionally used, are located in
the Market Area.  These transmission
lines have obvious adverse  visual im-
pacts on the environment and  when
the amount of right-of-way required is
considered, they  consume  a surpris-
ingly large amount of land. In  1972,
the  amount  of land used  by  trans-
                     mission   lines   and   right-of-ways
                     amounted  to  approximately  54,000
                     acres.

                     COOLING WATER REQUIREMENTS

                     The production  of electricity by the
                     steam cycle involves the condensation
                     of  exhaust steam back to water and
                     the consequent release of waste heat.
                     Nearly all existing steam-electric plants
                     use  cooling water  in  the  process of
                     removing the waste  heat from the
                     power generating system. The heated
                                 TABLE 38
                   PERCENT CONTRIBUTION OF FUEL TYPES
                   TO TOTAL ELECTRIC GENERATION - 1972
      Sectoi

  Chesapeake East

  Chesapeake West

  Chesapeake South

  TOTAL MARKET
       AREA
Fossil Steam Generation
  Coal   Oil   Gas    Hydiopowei
                                                      Nuclear
   29

   48

   26
42

48

64
25
Combustion

    2

    4

    2
   36    54
              <1
                             <1
cooling water, having accomplished its
task is returned to its  source, in  this
case, usually Chesapeake Bay or one of
its tributaries.

 All but three of the steam plants in the
 Chesapeake  Market  employ  "once-
 through" cooling (i.e.,  as opposed to
 re-cycled cooling waters). The  rate of
 flow of the cooling water through the
 plant  and the  rise  in  cooling water
 temperature  .differ among  plants be-
 cause of variations in design and oper-
 ating conditions of the facility. There
 is  only  a slight consumptive  use of
 water  in the once-through system due
 to the small evaporative losses caused
 by the increased  temperature  of the
 cooling water discharge. In general, the
 temperature rise of cooling water in
 the plant is usually in the range of
 10°F  to  25°F .(6°C to 14°C). Maxi-
 mum  allowable temperature increases
 are established by Federal and  State
 regulations.   Large   nuclear  steam-
 electric   plants,  however,   require
 approximately 50 percent more  cool-
 ing water for a given temperature rise
 than a fossil plant of equal size. This
 has a great deal of significance since, as
 shown in  the next section,  nuclear
 plants are projected to supply  a much
 larger portion of the  Region's energy
 requirements in the  future. Where ade-
 quate  supplies of  natural water  'are
 available, the  once-through  cooling
 system is usually adopted because it is
 the  most  economical  method  of
 cooling.

 Where  natural  bodies of water of
 adequate size  are not available at the
 site, or are excluded from use by  water
 quality  standards,  cooling ponds or
 towers may be constructed. The only
 cooling  pond  installation  contem-
 plated for the Chesapeake Bay Study
 Area is at the North Anna plant on the
 North Anna River in Virginia which is
 presently under  construction. Where
 cooling  towers are  used,  the heated
 water is cooled for reuse by a stream
 of flowing air. The air flow is usually a
 natural draft rising through the  tower
 which is contoured to create the neces-
 sary   circulatory   conditions.  Such
 natural  draft  towers  are  huge  strucr
 tures, about 300 feet in  diameter at
 the base and some  450 feet tall. Each
 tower provides cooling for a generating
 plant of about 500 to 1,000  mega-
 watts.
 72

-------
                                   PENN.
                     Jlujfo
                                       CONOWING08\
                                    .H^RVE-OE-GRACEB
  LEGEND

  MARKET AREA BOUNDARY
  STUDY AREA BOUNDARY
  FOSSIL STEAM
  NUCLEAR STEAM
Figure 38:  Chesapeake Bay Power Plant Location Map, 1972
                                                               73

-------
 In the "wet cooling tower" the warm
 water is sprayed into the stream of
 flowing air. This facilitates the heat
 dissipation by evaporation as air moves
 through the tower. The cooled water is
 collected in a basin under the tower
 from which it can be pumped back to
 the plant for reuse. The water which is
 lost through evaporation is replaced by
 withdrawals from a local natural water
 body.  Currently, there  is only  one
 natural  draft  wet  cooling  tower in
 operation in the Chesapeake Bay Mar-
 ket Area. This plant is located at Chalk
 Point,  Maryland,  and  has  been in
 operation since 1975. However, many
 cooling towers  of  this  type  are  in-
 cluded in the plans for facilities sched-
 uled to be  constructed in the future.

 EXISTING PROBLEMS
 AND CONFLICTS

 In  addition to  the  conflicts of  use
 which may arise in the Study Area as a
 result of multiple demands for water
 or land, the resolution of certain social
 issues  currently affecting  the  utility
 industry could  also  influence use of
 water and  land  for the generation of
 electric power in the Study Area.

 Prevailing controversies concerning the
 generation  of electric power and its
 impact  on  the environment  include
 such issues as esthetics,  air pollution,
 water  quality,  impingement  and  en-
 trainment of fish, radiological effects,
 and the disposal of nuclear wastes.

 Steam generating plants are expansive
 installations that can  present a  rela-
 tively unsightly overall appearance and
 hydroelectric plants_can often intrude
 on scenic  areas. Both entail compe-
 titive use of water  and may preclude
 other esthetic developments. Conceal-
 ment of transmission towers and trans-
 mission  lines is sometimes  difficult;
 they  cannot always be placed out of
 view  or effectively blended  into  the
 surroundings.

 The types  and quantities of emissions
 from the combustion of fossil fuels in
 the  production of  electric  power
 created  a  demand  for air pollution
 control  as  a  major siting criteria in
 planning future plants.  The  necessity
 for large quantities of cooling  water
 introduces problems  of fish impinge-
 ment, entrapment, and entrainment.
 The effects of releasing this water in a
heated condition and  its impact  on
aquatic life are other issues of contro-
versy. Environmental  regulations cur-
rently  prescribe  the use of a closed
cycle cooling system  for  generating
units to  be  installed in  1985  and
thereafter. The resulting  reduction of
heat input to the cooling water source
is offset by an approximately twofold
increase in evaporative water consump-
tion. The varied impacts of the ther-
mal  and  consumption  effects  may
exchange an apparent current problem
for a potential future problem.

During their  operation nuclear power
plants are permitted to release, under
well controlled  and  carefully  moni-
tored conditions, low levels of radio-
activity.  Current technologies for the
treatment and storage of radioactive
wastes are characterized  as currently
adequate. The adequacy of these tech-
nologies however, are controversial.
With increasing  emphasis on environ-
mental protection, the utility industry,
in cooperation with the  Federal Gov-
ernment, some state governments, and
some research institutes, have ongoing
programs which are attempting to find
ways to  minimize the environmental
impact of electric  power  generation
and  still maintain a reasonable cost for
electric power.
The public, government,  and the elec-
tric  industry  in general are all  cur-
rently enmeshed in a reassessment and
revaluation of the  generation of elec-
tric  power  by  nuclear  fission.  The
public inquiry with regard to  safety
and long-term justification of a nuclear
program and the economic  impact of
double-digit  inflation on the cost  of
nuclear  power has  introduced  some
question  regarding  the  future   of
nuclear power generation. Final resolu-
tion of these issues could influence the
utilization   of   nuclear   capacity
throughout   the country and in  the
Market  Area. The Chesapeake  Bay
Market  utilities  presently  plan  the
installation   of  considerable  nuclear
capacity but still anticipate substantial
additions of fossil generation. Because
of the  lower thermal efficiencies  of
nuclear   units,   increasing   nuclear
capacity increases water use about  50
percent  for  each  nuclear  unit which
replaces a comparably-sized fossil unit.
Land use for plant siting is reduced
because large fuel storage and handling
areas, needed for coal or oil, are  not
required  for  nuclear  fuel, but trans-
mission  rights-of-way  could  require
more  land because of the need to site
nuclear facilities further from the pop-
ulation centers. Opportunities for joint
use of the land would also tend to be
less because of the remote locations,
but such settings might be attractive
for recreational development.

Should future -events  constrain the
installation   of  additional   nuclear
capacity base load requirements would
have to be met with generation by coal
or oil. In this regard, conflicts between
the national energy and environmental
interests  and  between these interests
and the economic vitality of the elec-
tric utilities are currently evident and
resolution  of these  conflicts could
have varied impacts on the water and
land requirements.

The  goal  of  national energy  inde-
pendence  favors the  consumption of
coal while environmental  laws often
preclude  the  combustion  of certain
types of coal  in power plants without
adequate  environmental  equipment.
The  resultant economic  penalty, in
addition to uncertainties of supply and
regulatory postures pertaining to coal
combustion,  tends  to discourage the
use  of coal.  Coal-fired  plants  need
relatively large land  areas  for  coal
storage,  handling,  and ash disposal.
Fuel  storage  and  handling and ash
disposal in oil-fired plants  involve less
land  area  but  would  likely involve
more  waterfront land area to accom-
modate waterborne oil transport. The
use of imported oil would be undesir-
able from  both energy independence
and national security postures.


 FUTURE ELECTRIC POWER
 NEEDS, SUPPLIES, AND
 PROBLEMS

PROJECTED DEMANDS

 In general, the projections of demand
 in this  analysis were developed by
 extrapolating various historical trends
 and   subjectively  modifying  those
 trends to reflect judgements regarding
 factors currently  in  force  and  which
 could plausibly  continue  into  the
 future. The projections chosen reflect
 a belief that growth  in  the  use  of
 electric  power will continue but at a
 somewhat reduced rate. This approach
74

-------
     Chesapeake East
     (Gigawattshours)
       7,370
                           93,825
Chesapeake West
{Gigawatthours)





28.252

' ' J * S ' '
"' '•' " '"- -^
^'^ %
370,000





                                         Chesapeake South
                                         (Gigawatthours)
                                                                                    29,474
                                                                                                       411,625
    L
            -,2000
                                                    2020
Figure 39:  Projected Energy Requirements Including Peak Demand for Chesapeake Bay Market Areas
is believed to be moderately conserv-
ative with  regard to the potential for
energy conservation but recognizes the
significant  role electric power will con-
tinue to play in the National economy.


 Even  with  "conservative"  growth
 rates, the total use of electricity in the
 Chesapeake  Bay Market Area  is ex-
 pected to  increase by a factor of over
 5 times by the year 2000 and approxi-
 mately  13.5 times by the  end of the
 projection period. As shown in Figure
 39,  the   Chesapeake  South  Sector
which includes the major metropolitan
areas    of   Norfolk-Portsmouth,
Hampton-Newport  News,  Richmond,
and  the  Virginia suburbs  of  Wash-
ington, D.C. is expected to experience
the highest rate of increase. While the
rate  of growth  for the other Sectors
are lower  than those of Chesapeake
South, the rates still reflect significant
increases  in electricity  requirements
for these sectors by the year 2020.

SUPPL Y METHODOLOGY

The  power supply facilities projected
through  1985 are  either  in service,
under construction or in the advanced
design  stage. Accordingly,  the  pro-
jected  supply picture   through  this
period reflects the generation already
planned by utilities in the Market Area
at this writing.

For  the  years after  1985  the supply
program  utilized current and expected
trends  in the relative proportions of
steam  generation to total generation
and  of nuclear generation  to fossil.
The  capacity  projected  assumes all
units projected for meeting Market
Area loads  after  1985  are  located
within the Market Area.

With regard to future water consump-
tion and withdrawal  rates by power
plants,  once-through  cooling is  pro-
hibited, under the present EPA regula-
tions, on all  plants  scheduled for ser-
vice  in 1985  and  thereafter. Plants
scheduled before  1985 employing the
once-through system may retain them
throughout  the  remainder   of their
useful  lives.   For  this  Study,  it  is
assumed that all projected capacity on
line  after  1985 will employ the wet
towers cooling method.

PROJECTED SUPPL Y AND
PLANT LOCATION

It is projected that by the year 1985,
approximately 44   percent  of  the
Market Area's total   energy  will be
generated in  nuclear power plants. By
2000,  the  percentage  is  expected  to
increase  to  67  percent  and  to  72
percent by  2020.  Fossil fuel steam
plants  are  expected   to  remain  the
major  source of electric power to the
year  1985  at which  time  they  are
expected to  generate  50 percent  of
total  Market  Area  energy  require-
ments.  By the year  2000,  however,
fossil fuel's  share dips to 29 percent
and  to 26  percent  by  2020. It is
anticipated that the remainder of the
energy  requirements  will be met by
hydroelectric  and  combustion  type
plants  and  possibly other generating
modes presently not available.

Shown on Figure 40 are the projected
steam electric power plant sites for the
year 2000. Table 39 gives the sizes and
locations  of these  plants. Considera-
tion was given only to steam-electric
plants,  both nuclear and  fossil fuel,
because of their demands for  cooling
water  and  consequent potential im-
pacts on the aquatic environment and
shoreline areas. These two  means of
generation are expected  to produce
about  96  percent of the electrical
energy  required  in  the  Chesapeake
Market Area in 2000. The locations of
future facih'ties is  fairly well known
through 1985, but,  for  installations
scheduled beyond  1985,  there  is a
great  deal  of uncertainty  regarding
specific sites.  The  location of these
plants was  based on  several  criteria
including  the  availability  of ample
water   supply,  proximity  to   load
centers, and the need to keep trans-
mission lines short. In addition, sites in
Maryland  were selected in accordance
with  criteria developed by  the Mary-
land  Power  Plant  Siting  Program al-
though these sites were not necessarily
those   chosen   under   the   Siting
Program.
Because of the degree of uncertainty
attending  site  location in the long-
range future, no attempt was made to
predict where plants would be located
beyond 2000.
                                                                                                               ;75

-------
 COOLING WATER
 CONSIDERATIONS

 Figure  41   illustrates  the expected
 levels of water use and consumption
 by power plants  for  selected years.
 The  information for  the  1980-2000
 period  in Figure  41  is  taken from
 Tables  13-10 and  13-11 of Appendix
 13 and accounts for both new units
 added and old units removed through-
          out the  period.  For  2000  through
          2020, water use rates are assumed to
          be  the same as those for the year 2000
          although  technological improvements
          between 2000 and 2020 may reduce
          the  water  requirements  shown in
          Figure 41.  Water withdrawals are ex-
          pected to decrease over the projection
          period  so that by 2020 withdrawals
          will be  18 percent of the 1972 figure.
          Water consumption, however, is pro-
        jected to increase by approximately
        nine times.  This apparent discrepancy
        is due to  two  factors. First,  once-
        through cooling systems, which have
        much  higher withdrawal rates than
        other  types of  cooling  systems,  are
        prohibited on all plants  scheduled to
        begin service on or after 1985. Second,
        it was assumed that cooling towers
        would  be   used  for  all  projected
        capacity after  1985. Cooling towers
                                                           TABLE 39
                             STEAM-ELECTRIC PLANTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY MARKET AREA, 2000
      Plant

 Chesapeake West

 Douglas Point
. Calvert Cliffs
 Bush River*
 Elms*
 Lake Shore*
 Aquasco*
 Chalk Point
 Motgantown
 Brandon Shores
 Wagner
 Benning
 Chesapeake East

 Summit
 Conowingo*
 Thornton*
 Bethlehem*
 Red Lion*
 Havre-de-Grace*
 Vienna
 Indian River
 Edge Moor
 McKee Run
 Chesapeake South

 Free Ferry*
 North Anna
 Surry
 Chowan*
 Ramirez*
 Roanoke*
 Yorktown
 Qaremont*
 Possum Point
 Smithfleld*
 Chesterfield
 Portsmouth
                                 Fuel             Service-Area
Nuclear        Potomac El Pr. Co.
Nuclear        Baltimore G&E Co.
Nuclear        Baltimore G&E Co.
Nuclear        Potomac El Pr. Co.
Nuclear        Baltimore G&E Co.
Nuclear        Potomac El Pr. Co.
Fossil         Potomac El Pr. Co.
Fossil         Potomac El Pr. Co.
Fossil         Baltimore G&E Co.
Fossil         Baltimore G&E Co.
Fossil         Potomac El Pr. Co.
Nuclear        Delmarva P&L Co.
Nuclear        Conowingo Pr. Co.
Nuclear        Delmarva P&L Ma.
Nuclear        Delmarva P&L Ma.
Fossil         Delmarva P&L Co.
Fossil         Conowingo Pr. Co.
Fossil         Delmarva P&L Ma.
Fossil         Delmarva P&L Co.
Fossil         Delmarva P&L Co.
Fossil         Dover Municipal
 Nuclear       Virginia E&P Co.
 Nuclear       Virginia E&P Co.
 Nuclear       Virginia E&P Co.
 Nuclear       Virginia E&P Co.
 Nuclear       Virginia E&P Co.
 Nuclear       Virginia E&P Co.
 Fossil         Virginia E&P Co.
 Fossil         Virginia E&P Co.
 Fossil         Virginia E&P Co.
 Fossil         Virginia E&P Co.
 Fossil         Virginia E&P Co.
 Fossil         Virginia E&P Co.
                                                                                   Location
                                               City
Nanjemoy
Lusby
Bush River
St. Marys City
Millersville
Aquasco
Brandywine
Newburg
Foremans Corner
Arundel Village
Benning
Summit Bridge
Conowingo
Still Pond
Bethlehem
Red Lion
Havre-de-Grace
Vienna
Millsboro
Edge Moor
Dover
Barco
Minerva
Surry
CoSeld
Mamie
Palmyra
Yorktown
Claremont
Dumfries
Smithfield
Chester
Chesapeake
                      State
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
MD
DC
DE
MD
MD
MD
DE
MD
MD
DE
DE
DE
NC
VA
VA
NC
NC
NC
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
VA
           ' Plant projected and sited by FPC; all others are existing or scheduled by the utilities.
    Capability

       MW

       3400
       3304
       3000
       3000
       3000
       2700
       1890
       1801
       1800
        774
        580
      25249
       3040
       3000
       3000
       2700
       2000
       1000
        962
        677
        564
        110
      17053
       3760
       3760
       3290
       2820
       2820
       2820
       2660
       2535
       2180
       1690
       1484
       1050
      30870

Total  73172
 76

-------
                                                                           CHINCOTEAGUE
                                                                    I r: SOUTH MADISON ST
                                                                       >,     *«
                                                                       lELAWARE CITY
                                                    .   CONOWINGO
                                                    OTCH CLIFF  PERRYM
                                               PHILADELPHIA RO^  V rW/-/
• • • 4
  D
 LEGEND
MARKET AREA BOUNDARY
STUDY AREA  BOUNDARY
ALL OTHER
FOSSIL STEAM
HYDROELECTRIC
NUCLEAR STREAM
    Figure 40:  Chesapeake Bay Power Plant Location Map, 2000
                                                                                     77

-------
have much higher consumption rates
than once-through cooling systems.

LAND USE BY POWER
FACILITIES

Estimates of electric utility land use in
the Chesapeake  Bay Study  Area was
restricted to that required  for large
steam  electric plants  and the related
high-voltage    transmission   rights-
of-way.  No  attempt  was  made to
estimate land use requirements asso-
ciated  with subtransmission or distri-
bution faculties.

Power plant land  requirements  vary
with regard to plant  type, size, loca-
tion and fuel use.
Table 40 shows projected land require-
ments  for power  plants within the
Chesapeake Bay  Study  Area,  as  de-
fined in Figure  1.  The magnitude of
the quantity of land needed for future
power plant sites is obvious when it is
realized that the land  area of Washing-
ton, D.C. is about 42,900 acres.
It is reasonable to assume that the land
occupied by future transmission lines
will  also increase significantly, especi-
ally  considering the fact that nuclear
plants will have to be located further
away  from  population  centers  for
safety reasons. This is somewhat offset
by the fact that transmission lines will
probably have a higher capacity in the
future.

SENSITIVITY ANAL YSIS

The projections of future demands for
water and land by power plants in the
Bay Region in the preceding sections
were based  on  the  assumption  of a
"conservative" growth in the demand
for  electric  power.  As  part of  the
power   analysis,  the  sensitivity  of
    increase by approximately 30 percent
    in the year 2000 and about 95 percent
    in 2020. Under a "low" rate of growth
    assumption, which is a further damp-
    ening  of  the "conservative" growth
    trend, water  and land requirements
    would decrease by approximately 20
    percent in 2000 and about 30 percent
    in 2020. Water and land requirements
    under both  the low and conservative
    growth assumptions were shown to be
    significantly lower than under the his-
    torical trend  growth rate. Table 13-15
    in Appendix  13 presents more detailed
    data on the results of this analysis.

     The  sensitivity  analysis section of
     Appendix 13 also investigated   the
     impact on water withdrawal and  con-
     sumption in  the year 2020 of varying
     the future fossil/nuclear plant mix and
     closed-cycle/once-through   cooling
     system mix. TJie results for water
     withdrawal varied from a low of 1541
     mgd  with an all  fossil fuel, all closed
     cycle  system to  a high of 4551  mgd
     with an all  nuclear, all  once-through
     system.   Water  consumption  ranged
     from  452  mgd  for  all fossil  fuel,
     once-through plants to 1,313 mgd for
     all nuclear,  closed cycle  plants.  It is
     obvious from this  analysis that any
     economic  considerations or  govern-
     ment regulations affecting the type of
     fuel  or  cooling  system allowed in
     power  plants can have  significant
     impacts on power plant water require-
     ments.

     MEANS TO SATISFY
     ELECTRIC POWER NEEDS

     The  previous section  presents   one
     possible pattern of future load require-
     future demands for water and land to
     changes in   the  rate of  growth  was
     evaluated. Assuming a "high" rate of
     growth, which is  an extension of his-
     torical trends, both water  and  land
     requirements would be expected to
                                  TABLE 40
          PROJECTED LAND REQUIRED FOR STEAM ELECTRIC PLANTS
                IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STUDY AREA (ACRES)
            Sector

     Chesapeake East

     Chesapeake West

     Chesapeake South
           TOTAL CHESAPEAKE
             BAY REGION
 1985

 3,300

 6,700

 6,100


16,100
 2000

 8,400

16,500

 9,200


34,100
                                                                   2020
                            ments  and power  supply  based on
                            reasonably  expected  economic  and
                            technological   developments  in   the
                            Chesapeake Bay  Market Area.  That
                            portrayal is but one possibility of  what
                            may develop. By suitable extensions of
                            utility technologies and applications of
                            new philosophies  of service modifica-
                            tion (including public education pro-
                            grams designed to inform the public of
                            the importance  of energy conserva-
                            tion) the land  and water use indicated
                            might  be  altered dramatically.  The
                            sections which follow explore some of
                            the areas  where  such  modifications
                            could appear.
                            WATER USE

                            Steam-electric  plants offer a theoreti-
                            cal maximum  thermal  efficiency  of
                            some  55%, the remaining 45% of the

                             Figure 41:  Projected Cooling Water
                                        in the Bay Market Area
89,800

Withdrawal Rates
(MGD)
m
••im


9.4

»

2.3
2.3

Consumption Rates
(MGO)





?

-.^-.
1.2.
1.2

[•Jj1972 Ql985 , 2000 2020
 78

-------
energy being rejected as heat. Actual
efficiencies, including the mechanical
and electrical losses, are about 40% for
fossil plants and about 25% for nuclear
plants.

The  continued dependence  on  the
thermal process to produce  electricity
will  most  probably result  in the in-
creasing use of the water from Chesa-
peake Bay  and its estuarine  and fresh-
water tributaries for cooling purposes.
Either the water is returned  to the Bay
in a heated  condition  for a  once-
through  system or  is lost  at an in-
creased rate  to the atmosphere in  a
cooling tower  system.  Reduction  of
the  water  volumes so heated or con-
sumed may possibly be accomplished
in a  number of ways — e.g., increasing
steam-electric   efficiencies,   changing
the  generation mix, increasing  waste
heat utilization.
Steam-electric  efficiencies   may  be
increased through the development of
better metals and other suitable mate-
rials  in the heat transfer mechanism
which  could make possible  a reduced
production of  reject heat correspond-
ing to the same amount  of electrical
energy generated.

Hydroelectric  and combustion plants
could, to a limited degree,  be substi-
tuted for steam-electric plants with the
purpose of saving water; however the
potential for additional hydro-electric
generation  is  limited  in  the  Study
Area. In addition,  combustion  plants
use an expensive grade of oil and are
generally designed  for  limited opera-
tion. Such devices as magnetohydrody-
namics, windmills, and  solar cells use
no water  and may, conceivably,  be
brought into more common use early
in the next century.

Reject heat is  presently put to bene-
ficial  uses  by providing  steam  for
industrial  and commercial  purposes.
Actually, such opportunities are now
rare, but  selected  future   industrial
development might possibly be coordi-
nated  with the scheduling of  gener-
ating plants  to create  an  "industrial.
park" centered on the plant.
LAND USE

Virtually  all  existing electric power
facilities are  located above ground on
sites dedicated for the single purpose
of  the  particular facility. In the pre-
vious  section,  future electric  power
land use  was approximated based on
typical  dimensions and samplings. The
resultant  order of demand for land in
the  Chesapeake Bay suggests a need
for additional consideration  of these
requirements. The  demand  for land
might be  reduced  by additional rede-
velopment of existing sites, more com-
pact design of facilities, multiple  use
of future  sites and rights-of-way, and
underground construction.
LOAD MANAGEMENT

Historically,  the  demand for  electric
energy has been an outgrowth of the
overall economic  and  social climate of
the utility's territory.  All demand was
supplied in full without qualification
other than economic  return. Virtually
all present day rate structures actually
encourage  energy use by lowering the
unit price  of energy  as the consump-
tion increases and by  maintaining con-
stant rates regardless of the time of
day  or  season of year. In the  interest
of minimizing the water and land use
necessary for electric power  genera-
tion, demand manipulation and modi-
fication should also be considered.  A
possible means  of restructuring rate
schedules is  the introduction  of time
dependency. The cost of producing
electricity, and the ecological effects
of such production varies throughout
the  day and year. If rates were made
dependent on  time,  the price of the
electricity  could  better convey to the
consumer the costs associated  with his
demand for  service   and could  en-
courage him to adjust his use toward
the lower-priced periods of the day or
year.

Much of  the  electrical  energy pur-
chased  by the consumer is never trans-
formed into useful work but is lost in
the  conversion process  employed by
the  various  household and industrial
appliances and equipment. Part of the
loss  is  due  to  the design  of the
appliance  and  part  is  due  to  the
operation  of  the  appliance  by  the
consumer.  By encouraging manufac-
turers and consumers to consider over-
all  lifetime operating costs as well as
the  initial cost of the product, more
efficient appliances could be marketed
with a  resultant reduction in demand.
         NOXIOUS WEEDS

As previously mentioned in Chapter 2
of this  Summary, the aquatic  plants
which  inhabit  the  Chesapeake  Bay
Area waters  are  very  important and
serve as the primary producers or vital
life line for other Bay species. Without
the first link in  the food chain pro-
vided by these  plants, most forms of
higher life within  the Bay would suffer
and  the tremendous  productivity of
the Bay would  decrease. However, as
with any  resource, an  overabundance
can also lead to problems. With some
aquatic  plants,  excessive  growths or
heavy concentrations can  cause con-
flicts and actually restrict the use of
other resources. At this point,  these
plants  become  a hinderance and are
termed "noxious weeds".

Noxious weed problems arise when the
plants occur in  such a place or to such
an extent that  they limit other  bene-
ficial water related uses such as naviga-
tion,  recreation,  fish  and  wildlife,
water quality,  and public health. In
navigation channels, aquatic plants can
and have  grown sufficiently dense to
block  or   impede boat  traffic  and
present  a navigation hazard. Recrea-
tion opportunities including  swim-
ming, boating  and fishing  have also
been restricted  as the  result of exces-
sive  growths of  several  species. Fish
and wildlife can be adversely affected
when the plants  occlude needed sun-
light  for  food  production, exhaust
dissolved oxygen  supplies, and "crowd
out" plants which may be more  desir-
able foods for  waterfowl. Water qual-
ity  problems that can b.e caused  by
excessive  growths include low dis-
solved  oxygen, reduction of the aes-
thetic value of water  resources, and
possible release  of hydrogen sulfide gas
from    anaerobically   decaying
"blooms." Finally, public health can
be endangered when  the  aquatic vege-
tation  provides a favorable condition
for the  proliferation  of mosquitoes
which  can transmit  diseases such as
malaria and encephalitis.

On a worldwide  basis, noxious  weed
problems  are  of more  concern  in
warmer latitudes than in  the Chesa-
peake Bay Region. Central and South
America,   Africa,  Asia,   and  the
Southern  United  States all have more
acute problems  with the state of Flor-
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ida alone spending almost $15 million
annually on  weed  control programs.
While  certain  aquatic  plants  have
caused problems in  the Bay Region in
the  past, today  only an occasional
isolated  report  of a  noxious  weed
problem can be found. The  problem
species  are  still present  in  the  Bay
waters, but only as  mere fragments of
previous volumes,  and none in suf-
ficient numbers to require  compre-
hensive control measures.

CURRENT STATUS

The plants which have caused  the most
widespread  problems  in  Chesapeake
Bay  include  Eurasian  watermilfoil,
water chestnut, and sea lettuce. While,
as noted above, these  species  are pres-
ently  not   a problem  in  the  Bay
Region, a brief description of each is
provided due to their potential for
reemergence  in  the future.  A  more
detailed  discussion  of the character-
istics and  history  of each  of  these
plants as well as other less prominent
plants can  be found in Appendix 14,
"Noxious Weeds."


EURASIAN WATERMILFOIL

Eurasian watermilfoil is  a submerged
aquatic plant having  an appearance as
shown  in  Figure 42.  Growing over a
wide  range  of  environmental condi-
tions, the  plant  flourishes  in  water
depths of  up to 8 feet and  in waters
ranging from fresh to 15 ppt salinity.
It roots easily in bottoms ranging from
hard packed sand to muck, and under
the right conditions  grows rapidly to
the water  surface,  sometimes forming
a dense interwoven mat of material.
                            t
Known to be a native of Eurasia, the
manner in which watermilfoil came to
inhabit the waters of the United States
is  uncertain. It has  been proposed,
however, that either  the plant  came
 over in ships' ballasts which discharged
into American waters, or that it came
 over initially in supplies of imported
 aquarium fish.

 Watermilfoil problems were first docu-
 mented in the  Bay Area in  the early
 1930's and surfaced  again in the late
 1950's to  early 1960's. The areas most
 affected by this weed were  the Gun-
 powder and Middle River areas in the
 northern Bay Area and tributaries of
the  Potomac   and  Rappahannock
Rivers  in  the lower Bay Area. From
1967 to the present time, however,
Eurasian  Watermilfoil  has  become
increasingly scarce and its masses have
been estimated  at only one percent of
its  1963 tonnage. In part, the reasons
for  the  remarkable decline  are  two
diseases which  affect only  the milfoil
plants  and the  drought  of  the middle
1960's which  caused salinities to in-
crease   above   the  plant's  tolerance
level.

 WATER CHESTNUT

 Like watermilfoil, the water chestnut
is an import of Eurasian  origin. The
plant grows from seeds and  produces
as many as 10 to 15 rosettes or clumps
 of leaves which float  on the  water
 surface and can cluster up to 10 feet in
 diameter. A single rosette of the water
 chestnut  is shown  in Figure  43. The
 manner by  which water chestnut dis-
 tributes itself from one area to another
 is not fully understood, but the plant
 is known to tolerate no salinity and
 can grow in waters as deep as 15 feet.
 In areas of intense growth,  the rosettes
 may become  so   crowded  that  the
 leaves are pushed  upright out of the
 water  forming  a  field of vegetation
 which  makes  boating,  fishing, and
 other  water related activities difficult
 if not impossible.

 In the Chesapeake Bay Area, the water
 chestnut  was  first believed  to  have
 been planted  as an ornament in gold-
 fish ponds in Washington, D.C., before
 World War I.  By 1923, the plant had
 spread to the  Potomac River and ten
 years  later almost  10,000 acres were
 infested  near  Alexandria,  Virginia.
 More  recently, the  Gunpowder and
 Sassafras Rivers have had  some water
 chestnut problems in 1955 and 1964,
 respectively.  Today -because  of the
 many  years  of control   efforts, and
 expenditures  for  their removal, only
 yearly surveillance  and hand pulling of
 the water chestnut is required to avoid
 problems.


SEA LETTUCE

 Sea lettuce, a  green alga with a world-
 wide  distribution,   grows  mainly  in
 estuaries and salt marshes  of low cur-
 rent velocity, and salinity over 12 ppt.
 The general appearance of  the plant is
shown in Figure  44.  Typically, the
plants  grow at scattered 2 or 3 foot
intervals  to  depths of about 20 feet,
but  are  most  abundant  on shallow
sand  flats.   When  washed  up  on
beaches, the lettuce rots and produces
various  gases, the worst of which is
hydrogen sulfide. This noxious gas can
discolor lead paint, tarnish silverware,
and in sufficient concentrations create
a health hazard.

Sea lettuce problems have been docu-
mented for many  years  in  the  Bay
Area, Long Island Sound,  and  at  the
many places along the back bays of
the Atlantic Coast  of New Jersey. In
Maryland,  the  sea  lettuce  problem
peaked  in  1965  with most of  the
problems  occurring in the  Potomac
River and its tributaries. Virginia's sea
lettuce problems have centered basic-
ally  around the Norfolk  Area  where
local  shoreline  residents  requested
relief regularly during the 1960's. For-
tunately,  most problems  arising  as  a
result of sea lettuce growth are only of
a temporary nature. The floating mats
of lettuce typically remain for from
two  to  six weeks and  are usually
washed away by  currents,  alleviating
the problem.


MEANS TO SATISFY FUTURE
NEEDS

GENERAL

Although present water resource utili-
zation is not hindered by the presence
of aquatic plant growth in the Chesa-
peake Bay  Area,  the  potential exists
for problems to develop in the  future.
All plants require certain combinations
of  such  growth  factors  as sunlight,
salinity,  temperature,  and  nutrients
before growth and  reproduction  will
occur. It is not  known whether an
improper balance of these growth fac-
tors  or  some other  reason such as
disease has caused the recent decline in
many types  of  aquatic vegetation
including noxious varieties in the Bay;
but, new growth can be expected with
the  return of favorable conditions. If a
resurgence  of noxious plant growth
creates conflicts with other uses of the
Bay's  resources,  consideration   will
have to be  given to control measures.
This section provides a brief overview
of  the various  categories of control
measures that have been employed in
 80

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 the past and that have some potential
 for  use  in  the  Bay  Region. More
 specific  discussion  of these measures
 can be found in Appendix 14, "Nox-
 ious Weeds."
 CONTROL MEASURES

 Since the emergence of aquatic plant
 problems in America at the end of the
 nineteenth  century, many  methods
 have  been  devised  to control plant
 growths. Today,  more  sophisticated
 measures  have  been   devised,   re-
 searched, and put into practice for the
 eradication of noxious weed problems.
 These  measures  fall into  three basic
 categories:  chemical  control, mechani-
 cal control, and biological control.

 One of the most direct, time effective,
 and  efficient  means  of  controlling
 nuisance aquatic growths  is through
the use of chemicals. This involves the
direct application of substances such
 as  copper  sulfate, 2,4-D,  diquat,
 endothall,  and silvex directly to  the
 waters.  However,  the use  of these
chemicals must be carefully controlled
because of their adverse side effects. In
high concentrations,  many of  these
herbicides  are  highly  deleterious to
aquatic organisms such as finfish and
shellfish, and  also may  damage or
eliminate  desirable  waterfowl  food
plants  and  other valuable vegetation.
Another potential problem is the pos-
sible adverse effect on human beings
who ingest  water  or  food  that  is
contaminated with these chemicals.
Mechanical  aquatic  weed control in-
volves the  use  of  various types  of
equipment  to  cut,  uproot,  collect,
mash, and  otherwise  destroy  the
plants. In use for some time, the first
mechanical  control  programs used  a
crusher which pulverized  the plants
and left the remains to sink and rot in
the water. Newer types of equipment
that  have  and are  being investigated
for possible  field operations  include
spray equipment, wood chippers, de-
vices  for  transporting personnel and
equipment  over   difficult   terrain,
amphibious  tractors,  and a machine
which floats on its own cushion of air
at high speeds.

Biological control of noxious  aquatic
plants is perhaps the most ideal from a
cost and permanence point of view. In
the form of plant pathogens or insect
or animal predator species, this type of
control can become self-perpetuating
at virtually no cost  other than  that
needed to  initiate the process. Insect
or  animal  predators that are being
investigated in aquatic  control  pro-
grams include the Agasicles beetle, the
white amur (an herbivorous fish), and
other animals such as snails, crayfish,
thrips, moths,  grasshoppers,  aphids,
and the manatee. Plant diseases, such
as various forms of fungi, bacteria, and
viruses are  also being investigated for
the control of the water hyacinth and
the watermilfoil.  Experimental efforts
to  utilize  these  biological methods
with a minimum  of adverse  impacts
have been  successful in some areas of
the  United States  in  recent years,
although  a complete understanding of
the complicated  process involved  is
still somewhat lacking.
                                                                                                                 81

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                    Figure 42:  Eurasian Watermllfoll
82

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                                                Figure 43:  Water Chestnut
Figure 44:  Sea Lettuce
                                                                                      83

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              Epilogue
Since  Captain  John  Smith  first ex-
plored Chesapeake Bay in 1608, many
changes  have  taken  place-changes
which have  resulted  in a  thriving,
diversified  economy  and one  of the
highest  standards  of living  in  the
United States for the residents of the
Chesapeake Bay Region. However, this
rise  in the standard of living has not
been without  sacrifices  or  trade-offs
regarding the Bay's resources. Man has
cut vast virgin forests, destroyed many
thousands  of acres of wetlands, used
the Bay and its tributaries as receiving
waters for municipal and  industrial
wastes, and added  huge  quantities  of
sediments to the Bay's waters.
 Man's misuse of the Bay's resources
 was  usually  not  intentionally  mali-
 cious. It was simply a matter of people
 performing the acts of living, working
 and playing, that have been the genesis
 of most of the  Bay's problems. Com-
 pounding  the situation was a general
 lack of understanding of the complexi-
 ties and interrelationships of the Bay's
 ecosystem and  the finite capacity of
 the Bay to assimilate wastes.

 In  1974,  366  years  after  Captain
 Smith's voyage up the Bay, there were
 8.2 million  people living in the Bay
 Region. Population in the Bay Region
 has more  than doubled  since  1940.
 These rapid  growth  rates have com-
 pounded  the Bay-related  problems
 by  overloading  the capacities of ex-
isting water supply, waste treatment,
and recreational facilities.

During the next 50 years, population
is projected to more than double once
again so that by the year 2020 approx-
imately 16.3 million people will reside
in the Bay Region. As a result of these
projected increases in population, as
well as expected increases in per capita
income and manufacturing output, sig-
nificant  additional demands will be
placed on Chesapeake Bay's water and
related  land  resources. For example,
31 of the  49  major  central  water
supply  systems  in  the  Region are
expected  to  have average water de-
mands  which will exceed  presently
developed  supplies;  water consump-
tion  by  both  industry  and  power
plants is  projected  to increase  by
nearly nine times; boating and sailing
activity  is projected  to  increase by
more than five times'and swimming by
nearly four and  one-half times; total
waterbome commerce on Chesapeake
Bay  is  expected to  approximately
double;  and  nearly  20,000  acres of
land  within the  100-year tidal  flood
plain have been proposed for intensive
development.

Although  there  is  much room  for
honest  debate over the magnitude of
the projected levels of demands on the
Bay's resources presented in  this re-
port,  there is no  debate about the
assertion  that there will be continued
development  by man  in the  Chesa-
peake Bay Region. With  proper  plan-
ning, tomorrow's development will be
tempered  by a growing awareness of
the environmental costs of unregulated
growth, and also by the knowledge
that environmental enhancement and
preservation  have  often  significant
economic  costs which cannot be  disre-
garded. Informed decisions  will have
-to be made concerning future uses of
the  Bay's  resources based  on  a
thorough  analysis of all the costs and
benefits—economic,  environmental,
and social.
Essential inputs to  such  a planning
effort  are  both  study and research
designed to provide a  better under-
standing of the  incredibly complex
ecological,  economic,   and environ-
mental  "system"  called  the  Chesa-
peake Bay Region. An  important part
of such research should be  work which
is oriented toward gaining more know-
ledge of the  role  of  the  Estuary's
natural  physical  and  chemical  pro-
cesses  in  the  overall  health  of the
ecosystem.  Research is  also needed to
provide a better understanding of the
biological component  of  the  ecosys-
tem  such as  predator-prey relation-
ships and the  biological  reasons for
species  population  fluctuations.  Also
of critical  importance  'is  a need for
methodologies to better estimate the
value of such  non-market  items as an
acre  of wetland, a day of bird watch-
ing,  an  endangered  species habitat, or
84

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the aesthetic appeal of a clean river or
bay.

There  are  numerous  studies  and re-
search projects underway  at all levels
of government and at private institu-
tions which are addressing these types
of problems. Unfortunately,  research
efforts are  sometimes  not coordinated
and therefore much time and money is
lost  due  to   duplication  of effort
and/or lack of direction.

In addition to  their  involvement in
research  efforts, a large  number of
Federal,  State, and local  agencies, as
well as several interstate commissions,
are  involved in different  aspects of
water  resource  management  in   the
Region.  Inconsistencies in  the  laws
promulgated by these  various levels of
government, many of  which have con-
flicting interests, often create prob-
lems in what is essentially a regional
resource— Chesapeake  Bay.

The Corps of  Engineers Chesapeake
Bay Existing  Conditions  Report  was
the  first  major study effort which
addressed  Chesapeake Bay   from  a
regional perspective. Just as important,
the report  contained much of the basic
data required  to project  the future
demands on  the Bay.  The  primary
focus  of this  study,  the Chesapeake
Bay Future Conditions Report, is to
present  the projection  of water re-
source needs to the year 2020 with the
purpose  of identifying the problems
and conflicts which would result from
the  unrestrained growth in use of the
Bay's  resources. This report provides
the  basic  information necessary  to
proceed into the  next phase of the
program which is the formulation and
recommendation of solutions to pri-
ority problems.

The Chesapeake Bay Hydraulic Model
at  Matapeake,  Maryland,  will  be  a
major  planning  tool during the next
phase  of the  study.  The nine  acre
model will provide a means of repro-
ducing, to a manageable scale, some of
the  physical  phenomena  (e.g.,  cur-
rents,  tides,  salinities)  that  occur
throughout  this  large  and  complex
system. In addition, as an operational
focal point  it will promote more ef-
fective  liaison  among the  agencies
working in the  Bay Region by helping
to reduce duplication  of research and
by  leading to the  accelerated dissemi-
nation of knowledge among interested
parties. The model will also be extreme-
ly valuable as an educational  tool for
the public in the magnitude and com-
plexity of the problems and conflicts
facing  Chesapeake Bay. Construction
of  the Chesapeake  Bay  Model  was
completed in May 1976. Verfication,
or "fine-tuning" of the model is cur-
rently  underway and is scheduled for
completion in 1977.

Based  On the findings of the Future
Conditions  Report,  the  capabilities
and  limitations   of   the  Hydraulic
Model, and input from the  Study's
public involvement program,  exsting
and potential management problems
will be identified  and prioritized. In
prioritizing these problems, emphasis
will be placed  on (1)  selecting  prob-
lems for  study  that are considered to
be  high priority and that have Bay-
wide  significance; (2) maximizing the
use of the Chesapeake Bay Hydraulic
Model;  and (3)  avoiding any duplica-
tion of work being conducted under
other existing or proposed programs.
Major problem areas under considera-
tion for further study during the next
phase of the Study  include the effects
on  the Bay and its  people  of extreme
freshwater inflow conditions, naviga-
tion channel modifications, increases
in power plant thermal effluents, tidal
flooding,  and wastewater  dispersion.
The findings of the Future Conditions
Report   and  the  Chesapeake   Bay
Hydraulic  Model  will  add  tremen-
dously to the growing body of know-
ledge  of the  Chesapeake Bay system.
The  system  is  immensely  complex,
however, and future increases in many
types  of demands will  be  great in
magnitude and rapid in occurrence. We
cannot hope to completely understand
the workings of the entire system. We
can, however, develop enough know-
ledge to  identify  future  activites by
man which would result in significant
adverse or beneficial  impacts on the
integrity of Chesapeake Bay and the
welfare of the people of the Region
and Nation; The goal, not only of the
Corps  of Engineers,  but  also of all
parties  interested  in the future of
Chesapeake Bay, is a well-coordinated
water-land management  plan which
will  guide man in  utilizing  the  re-
sources of Chesapeake Bay to provide
the greatest  benefits  to  the greatest
number of peopje.
                                                                                                              85

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      CHESAPEAKE BAY DATA  BANK  GLOSSARY
     Aquifer—A  sedimentary  layer  of earth or
     porous rock that contains water. Like a surface
     stream, water in an aquifer flows underground
     from the source to discharge points — either
     wells, swamps, springs, or lakes.
     Bay Region—The  geographical  area which in-
     cludes those  counties which are located on the
     Chesapeake Bay or one of its tidal tributaries.
     (See tributary)
     Bacteriological Indicators—Coliform bacteria
     are found in  the feces (solid wastes) of humans
     and  animals. Coliform  bacteria, although
     harmless to humans, are found with pathogenic
     bacteria  in  domestic   waste  products.
     Pathogenic bacteria cause diseases. Bacterial
     counts are made with  the assumption that if
     coliform bacteria are  present,  pathogenic
     bacteria are also likely to  be present. (See col-
     iform)
     Biochemical  Oxygen  Demand  (BOD)—A
     measure  of  oxygen depleting  power of  the
     organics in a waste water discharge.
     Biome—A natural community of interacting
     plants and animals with its composition largely
     controlled by climatic conditions.
     Biomass—The total mass  or weight of living
     material in a unit  of area.
     Bloom—A  sudden  development  of  large
     numbers of organisms, such as algae, in bodies
     of water.
     Brackish Water—A mixture of salt water from
     the ocean and freshwater from the land with a
     salinity greater than one part  per thousand
     (PPO.
     Coliform—A type of bacteria found in the in-
     testines of animals and humans.
     Channelization—Changing  the  course   and
     shape of a stream  bed to permit more efficient
     stream flow.
     Consumer—Any living  thing that is unable to
     manufacture its  own  food from nonliving
     substances and which  depends instead on the
     energy stored in other living things which it eats
     for its food supply.
     Consumption (Water)—The amount of water
     lost between the points of intake and discharge
     through incorporation into products, evapora-
     tion, etc.
     Deadweight  Tonnage (DWT)—The weight in
     tons (2000 Ib/ton)  of cargo,  supplies,  fuel,
     passengers and crew when a ship is loaded to
     the maximum.
Detritus—Minute particles of decaying remains
of dead plants, animals, and bacteria.
Dissolved 'Oxygen (DO)—The amount  of ox-
ygen  dissolved  in water.  Adequate DO  is
necessary for the survival of fish and other
aquatic organisms. DO is measured in units of
parts per million (ppm) dissolved oxygen found
in the water.
Dissolved  Solids—A  measure of  the total
amount of  organic  and inorganic  material
which  has been dissolved in water.  Sulfates,
carbonates, phosphates, nitrates, and chlorides
are among the most common dissolved  solids.
Draft—The distance from the water level to the
lowest point of the vessel which is under water.
Ecology—A branch of science concerned with
the interrelationship  of organisms  to  one
another and to the environment.
Ecosystem—System of exchanges of materials
and enefgy  between living things  and their
physical environment. The living or biotic com-
munity and the nonliving environment function
together as a system.
Endangered Species—Those species of animals
and plants which are so few in numbers as to be
in danger of extinction throughout their natural
habitat.
Estuary—A semienclosed coastal body of water
which has a free connection with the open sea.
Estuaries are strongly affected by tidal action
and the  mixing of seawater  with freshwater
from land drainage. Examples are: mouths of
rivers, coastal bays, tidal marshes, and bodies
of water behind barrier beaches.
Eutrophication—The process by which a lake
becomes rich in dissolved nutrients  and defi-
cient in oxygen. Eutrophication occurs either as
a natural stage in lake maturation or is ar-
tificially induced by human activities, principal-
ly  by the addition  of fertilizers and  organic
wastes to the body of water.
Evapotranspiration—A combined loss of water
from a given area by evaporation from surface
water and from the transpiration of plants.
Fall Lin. —The geological  boundary between
softer sedimentary rocks and harder crystalline
rocks. Usually, there is a waterfall  as a river
crosses the fall line because the sedimentary
rocks wear  away  more  easily   than  the
crystalline rocks.
Food Web—A  system of interlocking  food
chains in which energy and materials are passed
86

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through a series of plant-eating and meat-eating
consumers.
Groundwater—Water  found underground  in
porous rock or soil layers. (See aquifers)
Isohaline Lines—Lines on a map showing the
varying  degrees of salinity that exist  within
estuary waters. These lines slant upwards to the
right due to the rotation  of the earth.
Habitat—The place where a plant or animal
species naturally lives and grows, its immediate
surroundings.
Heavy  Metals—Elements  such  as  mercury,
lead,  zinc, chromium, cadmium,  and arsenic
which are important because of their poisonous
effects in low concentrations  to plants  and
animals. A problem with heavy metals  is that
many  fish  and  shellfish  concentrate  these
materials in their tissues, affecting the natural
food  chain and  presenting  a consumption
hazard to man.
Hydroelectric  Power—Electricity generated by
the conversion of falling water into electrical
energy.
Hydrology—A branch of science dealing  with
properties,  distribution, and  circulation of
water.
Marsh—A wetland dominated by herbaceous
or  nonwoody plants,  often  developing  in
shallow ponds or  depressions, river margins,
tidal areas, and estuaries. Marshes may contain
either  salt  or  fresh  water.  Vegetation  is
dominated by  grasses and sedges,
Maximum Sustainable  Yield—The  greatest
harvest which  can be taken from a population
without affecting subsequent harvests.
Non-Point Sources—Those sources from which
materials reach a watercourse from runoff over
a large area (e.g., pesticides from fields), not
from  a particular location, as in point  source
{e.g., particulate matter from smokestacks).
Nutrient—A chemical  element,  organic com-
pound, or inorganic compound used  in the
growth of living organisms.
Parent  Material—The unweathered  rock or
organic matter from which soil is originated.
pH—The measure of hydrogen ion concentra-
tion. pH reflects either  acidic or alkaline condi-
tions. Neutrality is  represented by a pH of  7.
Alkaline  (basic)  conditions  above  8.5  can
decrease   reproductive capabilities  in  many
aquatic species. Acidic water,  pH less than  6,
can harm and even  kill many forms of aquatic
life.
Phytoplankton—Microscopic aquatic plants.
Pollutant—A  substance,  medium, or  agent
which causes physical impurity. Any gas, li-
quid, or solid whose  nature contaminates the
water, air, or ground to a level of quality which
is less desirable.
Point  Sources—Those   sources  in  which
material is discharged  from a specific point (ef-
fluent from a wastewater treatment plant, ef-
fluent  from a  factory,  warm  water  from  a
power plant are some examples.)
Producers—Primarily green plants. These are
the basic link in any food web. By a means of
photosynthesis, plants manufacture the  food
on which all other living things ultimately de-
pend.
Salinity—Concentration of salt in water usually
measured in parts per thousand (ppt).
Salinity Currents—Vertical movements in the
estuarine waters caused by the density of the
salts mixing with the less dense fresh water.
Sewage—Waste materials carried in sewers and
drains. Refuse in water.
Siltation—The formation of deposits of fine
particles of clay,  sand, or other particles that
have been carried by moving water.
Soil—Upper  layer of  earth  consisting  of
disintegrated rock with a mixture of organic
matter,twater, and air  in which living organisms
may be found.
Suspended Solids—Those solids which remain
suspended in water and cannot pass through the
holes in a standardized filter one millionth of
an inch in diameter.
Tidal  Currents—Horizontal  movements  in
ocean and  estuarine waters caused by changes
in the elevation of the surface  through tidal
changes.
Tidal Flooding—The  flooding of land by tides
higher than those usually caused by hurricanes
or "northeasters".
Tributary—A stream of water that flows into a
larger body of water; for example, the Potomac
River is a tributary of the Chesapeake Bay. Any
river that flows into the Bay is a tributary of the
Bay.  Such rivers  also  have  many smaller
tributary streams of water flowing into them.
Turbidity^A  state of having disturbed sedi-
ment, of being opaque, cloudy, or muddy, with
matter in suspension.
Wetlands—Any area characterized by high soil
moisture and often high  biological productivi-
ty,  where the water table is at or near the sur-
face for most of the year.
Zooplankton—Microscopic animals in water.
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