NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
RESOURCE PROGRAM
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL ASPECTS WORK GROUP REPORT
MONTANA
Nl BRASK A
WYOMING
NGPRP
MONTANA
NEBRASKA
NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTH DAKOTA
WYOMING
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR
-------
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS RESOURCES PROGRAM
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL ASPECTS WORK GROUP
DISCUSSION DRAFT
JUNE 1971*-
THIS REPORT WAS PREPARED PURSUANT TO A DIRECTIVE
DATED OCTOBER 23, 1973, FROM THE PROGRAM MANAGER,
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS RESOURCES PROGRAM. PUBLICATION
OF THE FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS HEREIN SHOULD NOT
BE CONSTRUED AS REPRESENTING EITHER THE APPROVAL OR
DISAPPROVAL OF THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR, THE
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE, THE ADMINISTRATOR OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, OR THE STATES OF
MONTANA, NEBRASKA, NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
WYOMING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT IS TO PROVIDE
INFORMATION AND ASSISTANCE TO THE PROGRAM MANAGEMENT
TEAM IN THE PREPARATION OF THE DRAFT INTERIM REPORT
ON THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS RESOURCES PROGRAM. THE
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT TEAM IS RELEASING THIS DRAFT FOR
PUBLIC USE WITHOUT CORRECTING INCONSISTENCIES OR
REWRITING BECAUSE THE DELAY REQUIRED TO ACCOMPLISH
THIS TASK WOULD DELAY THE TIMELY ISSUANCE OF THE
REPORTS.
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
TABLE OF CONTENTS
page
PREFACE ix
SUMMARY 1
Statement of the Problem 1
Implications of Coal Development 2
Findings 3
Recommendations 5
Report Overview 8
I. INTRODUCTION 11
The Study Area 11
The Scenarios 15
II. POTENTIAL POPULATION CHANGE 21
Population Models 21
Direct and Indirect Employment 22
Total Employment 22
Population Projections 22
Population Effects 26
Net Migration 26
Labor Supply 27
Population Stability 30
The Spatial Impact 33
Further Research Needs 34
III. ANTICIPATED SOCIAL EFFECTS 37
Urbanization of the N6P—A Typology 37
Effects on the Social Order 39
The individual 39
The family 41
Group and sub-cultural relations 43
Rural society 43
Shifts in the Power Structure 45
i
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
page
A Comparative Case Study: An Empirical Approach . . 48
Attitudes Toward the Environment: One Wyoming County 57
Attitudes Toward the Local Areas 57
Attitudes Toward Specific Industries 58
Tourism 59
Strip mining 59
Logging 60
Conclusion 61
Attitudes of Youth Toward Coal Development
Comnunlties in Decline: A Case Study 63
Further Research Needs 69
IV. EFFECTS ON INDIANS 75
Overview 76
The Six Host Affected Tribes 78
Population 78
Labor Force and Employment . 80
The Indian Family and Income gj
Educational Levels .... 82
Anticipated Reservation Coal Development 83
Implications of Crow Development 84
Further Research Needs 86
Inferences 87
V. EFFECTS ON GOVERNMENTS 91
Sources of State Revenues 92
Sources of Local Revenues 93
Service Requirements and Needs ..... 97
Local Planning Needs 97
Streamlining of County and Local Government . . . 100
Health Care 104
Welfare Services 109
11
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
page
Education HI
Pire Protection HA
Lav Enforcement 115
Highways and Roads 116
Public Transportation Facilities 118
Municipal Services 119
Recreation Facilities ... 120
Costs of Services 120
Conclusion 123
Spatial, Temporal, and Juriedictional Disparities. . 123
Some Problems in Revenue and Service Requirements. . 125
Methods of Alleviating Disparities 128
Legislation 129
Federal Aid 132
Planning and Coordination 133
Problem Areas 134
Housing 134
Water and sewer 135
Health care 136
Education 136
Conclusion .. 138
Development Regulations and Policies 139
Land Use Planning 139
Zoning 141
Minerals Leasing 142
Water 145
Envirnomental Standards 146
Indemnification for Water Loss and Air Pollution . 146
Conclusion 148
Further Research Needs 148
VI. EFFECTS ON NON-GOVERNMENTAL SERVICES 151
Adequacy of Existing Services 152
iii
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
page
Existing Need for Services 152
Ability of Organizations to Expand 155
Demand for New Services '..... 156
Conclusion ......... 157
Further Research Needs . . . 158
VII. OVERVIEW 159
REFERENCES 163
1. Work Group Supporting Documents; Available in NGPRP
Public Repositories 163
II. Other References 170
APPENDIX 172
I. Listing of Study Area Counties by States 172
II. Minority Reports 173
iv
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
LIST OF TABLES
page
Table 1. Net migration in the Northern Great Plains
impact area, 1960-1970 12
Table 2. Projected increase over 1972 facilities and
capacities 17
Table 3. Estimated employment associated with coal
development activities 18
Table 4. Employment related to coal development,
scenarios I, II, and III 23
Table 5. Total employment projections for 1980, 1985, and
2000, by State impact areas, scenarios I,
II, and III 24
Table o. Total population projections for 1980, 1985,
and 2000, by State impact areas, scenarios I,
II, and III 25
Table 7. Net migration in Montana and Wyoming impact
areas 27
Table 8. Per capita money income for Montana, Nebraska,
North Dakota, Wyoming, and for impact areas as
percent of U.S. income, 1970 29
Table 9. Earnings distribution of a typical coal gasification
plant and Mercer County, North Dakota male
workers 30
Table 10. Indian land and residents by reservation,
1973 79
Table 11. Indian population change, 1963-1973 80
Table 12. Unemployment rates: North Dakota, South Dakota,
and Montana compared to Indian reservations
within their boundaries, 1970 81
Table 13. Family size and income: Indians compared to
total population 82
Table 14. Tax levies affected by coal development
by State 92
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
page
Table 15. Coal royality estimates, State and Federal, for
selected counties by scenario 94
Table 16. Percentage distribution of property taxes in
selected Northern Great Plains counties, 1974 .... 96
Table 17. Direct general expenditures of State and local
governments per capita, by State ,, 98
•
Table 18. Location of active physicians (M.D. and D.O.) in
relation to population: December 31, 1967 105
Table 19. New classroom space and costs for selected counties,
Scenario II 112
Table 20. Added personnel and salary requirements for education
in selected counties, Scenario II 113
Table 21. Approximate county budget requirements, selected
counties, by scenarios 122
Table 22. Percent of county budgets funded by county purpose tax
levies, selected counties, fiscal year 1974 .... 123
Table 23. Estimated increase in county budget requirements and
increased county tax revenues over 1974 levels,
selected counties, Scenario II 124
Table 24. School budgets versus tax revenue: Increases over
1974, Big Horn County, Montana and Sheridan County,
Wyoming, Scenario II 126
vi
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
LIST OF FIGURES
page
1. Soclo-Bcononlc Work Group Study Area, and Location of
Coomercial Coal Deposits, Northern Great Plains States. 13
2. Principal Impact Areas, Northern Great Plains States. . 14
3, Estimated Annual Average Construction Employment During
Construction of Facilities for Mining, Electrical Plants,
and Gasification Plants, Campbell County, Wyoming,
1975-2000 31
4. Possible Revision of Local Government (As Implemented in
Rock Springs, Wyoming) 102
vii
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
PREFACE
The report contained herein represents a summary of the
findings of Work Group F, Socio-Economic and Cultural Aspects of
Coal Development In the Northern Great Plains. This work group is
one of seven designated to provide information for the Northern
Great Plains Resources Program (NGPRP). The other six are: A—
Regional Geology, B—Mineral Resources, C—Water, D—Atmospheric
Aspects, E—Surface Resources, and G—National Energy Considerations.
The Program itself is comprised of three lead Federal agencies (the
Department of Agriculture, the Environmental Protection Agency, and
the Department of Interior) and five States (Montana, Nebraska,
North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming), each of which has a
jurisdictional responsibility in areas likely to be Impacted by
coal development. The stated purpose of the NGPRP is to provide
information for use by decisionmakers concerning potential coal
development and associated impacts. Support has come largely
through redirected effort on the part of State and Federal agencies.
The work groups were formed in February 1973 and were originally
scheduled to operate through December 1975. However, a shift in
emphasis has altered this timing in order to provide information for
the NGPRP interim report which was to be released at the end of
June 1974. Work Group F was charged to provide information concern-
Ing the socio-economic and cultural aspects of coal development in
the Northern Great Plains. The Work Group product has been developed
through the efforts of many people, Including those assigned from
Federal and State agencies and others who simply became interested
in the group.
ix
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRF - 6/74
Despite considerable effort, the Work Group got off to a
slow start. The summary report is based on 20 studies and their
supporting documents; by the end of August 1973, only 5 of these
studies had,been initiated. It was not until the fall of 1973
that most of the studies were actually begun. By November 15;
sufficient Information had become available from which to generate
the population projections that form the backbone of much of the
analysis in this report. The studies were scheduled for completion
in time to provide input to an April 1 Work Group summary report.
However, on January 23, the deadline for submission of the report
and supporting documents was extended by the Program Management
Team. During February, the final 6 of the 20 studies were initiated.
The report has various limitations, some of them due, at least
in part, to the slow and uneven start. The complexities of socio-
economic problems are so great, the Work Group could not have
adequately pursued them in appropriate depth in the time allowed
even if adequate resources had been available. Adequate resources
were not assigned by the Federal agencies responsible for human
resources. We hope these limitations have been made sufficiently
clear in the text of the report. Where information is lacking,
subject areas for further research are identified. The supporting
documents upon which this report is based are cited as appropriate,
and are listed with their abstracts in the appendix. These documents
will be available in the Northern Great Plains Resources Program
repositories in the summer of 1974.
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
The Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,
was the lead agency. Following is a list of contributors and other
participants in the study.
xi
-------
i. Lead Agency: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
II. Persona responsible for individual supporting studies and for writing Work Group report.
David Blckel
Experimental College
Minot State College
Minot, North Dakota
San Carnea
Center for Urban Affaire
Northwestern University
Evanston, Illinois
Eric Clausen, Chairman
Experimental College, Earth
Science, Nlnot State College
Minot, North Dakota
Norman L. Delated
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
Arne M. Degn
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Planning Support Group
Billings, Montana
John Farber
Office of State-Federal
Relations
Cheyenne, Wyoming
Cecil L. French, Head
Dept. of Sociology
Lakehead University
Thunderblrd, F. Ontario
H. Paul Frlesema
Center for Urban Affairs
Northwestern University
Bvanston, Illinois
Raymond Gold
Department of Sociology
University of Montana
Mlssoula, Montana
Robert Graham
Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Department of Commerce
Washington, D.C.
III. Other participants and Interested persons.
Charles Humphrey
Dept. of Agricultural Eco. Ext.
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
Larry Lelstritz
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
Edward L. Leland
Bureau of Reclamation
Billings, Montana
Kathe Lenmerman
Experimental College
Minot State College
Minot, North Dakota
Oscar Lund
So. Dakota Sta. Planning Bureau
State Capital
Pierre, South Dakota
Clark Markel
Experimental College
Minot State College
Minot, North Dakota
Roger Mataon
Water Reaouice Res. Institute
University of Wyoming
Laramie, Wyoming
Sandy McCaw
Office of Economic Opportunity
Denver, Colorado
Tom Melasner
Action for Eastern Montana
Glendlve, Montana
Charles G. Newton
Office of State-Federal
Relations
Cheyenne, Wyoming
Carolyn Alderson
Blrney,' Montana
Ken Ancell
Panhandle Eastern Pipeline
Houston, Texas
Dale Anderson
Water Resources Research
Inst.
Worth Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
Jean Anderson
League of Women Voters
Billings, Montana
John D. Andrlck
Northern Great Plains
Resources Program
Denver, Colorado
Irene Anthony
Dept. of Rousing and
Urban Development
Washington, D.C.
Frank H. Osterhoudt
USDA-ERS-NRED
Washington, D.C.
Donald Patterson
Center for Interdisciplinary
Studies
Montana State Univeralty
Boxeman, Montana
Paul Polxin . ,
Bureau of Bus. and Eco. Res.
University of Montana
Mlssoula, Montana
Jeanette B. Studer
Division of Buslneaa and
Economic Research
University of Wyoming
Laramie, Wyoming
James P. Twomey
Washington, D.C.
Anita Wallner
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
and Eco.
Montana State University
Boxeman, Montana
Warren White
Nebraska State Office of
Planning and Programming
State Cepital
Lincoln, Nebraska
Anne Williams
Department of Sociology
Montana State University
Boxeman, Montana
Mike York
Department of Economic
Planning and Development
Cheyenne, Wyoming
Rick Applegate
Boxeman, Montana
Margaret Arp
Sierra Club
Boulder, Colorado
Robert G. Asheim
Executive Vice President
Black Hills Power & Light Co.
Rapid City, South Dakota
Xii
-------
Donald Bailey
Lame Deer Scage
Forayth, Montana
Robert Bailey, Coordinator
Northern Cheyenne Research
Proj.
Lame Deer, Montana
Dan Baker
Bureau of Land Management
Wyoming State Office
Cheyenne, Wyoming
Thomas Barocci
Policy Evaluation and Research
Department of Labor
If ashing ton, D.C.
David Bartel
Associated Press
Bismarck, North Dakota
Arnold Bateman
SDSU Ag. Res. & Extension
Ctr.
Rapid City, South Dakota
Roger R. Bay
USDA-Forest Service
Washington, D.C.
Brooke Beaird
Atlantic Richfield Company
Gillette, Wyoming
Kenneth Beartusk
Northern Cheyenne Council
Lame Deer, Montana
Audie L. Belevens, Jr.
Department of Sociology
University of Wyoming
Laramie, Wyoming
Robert R. Bell
Economic Development
Association of Eastern
Montana
Sidney, Montana
Lloyd D. Bender
USDA-ERS-EDD
Botenan, Montana
Gary Bennethum
Bureau of Land Management
Washington, D.C.
Sheryl Bergen
North Dakota Project
Bismarck, North Dakota
Robert K. Bergman
National Park Service-
Washington
Department of the Interior
Washington, D.C.
John Berringer
Community Development
Coordinator
Rural Electrification Admin.
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
Tom Bethell
Washington, D.C.
W. Gale Biggs
Dames and Moore Consultants
Denver, Colorado
Jim Binando
Bureau of Land Management
Billings, Montana
Dick W. Blrkholc
Sheridan, Wyoming
Dvight Blood
Division of Business and
Economic Research
Laramie, Wyoming
C. Ronald Bloom
State Planning Agency
Pierre, South Dakota
E. Ralph Bohannon
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Billings, Montana
Russell Bouldlng
Environmental Defense Fund
Boulder, Colorado
Richard Bourke
Environmental Quality Council
Helena, Montana
Carson Boyd
Fort Peck Tribes
Poplar, Montana
Lynn A. Brant
Air Quality Bureau
Helena, Montana
Harry M. Brldgeman
Dames and Moore Consultant*
San Francisco, California
Sheldon Brooks
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Billings, Montana
Elliott A. Browar
Regional Director
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kansas City, Missouri
Gordon Browder
Department of Sociology
University of Montana
Mlasoula, Montana
Keith Brown, Preaident
Wyo-Ben Products, Inc.
Billings, Montana
Len Brown
Office of Water Resources
Research
Department of Interior-
Washington, D.C.
J. D. Brunk
Department of Economic
Planning and Development
Cheyenne, Wyoning
John Buffolohpn
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Ft. Peck
Poplar, Montana
William Burnett
Old West Regional Commission
Rapid City, South Dakota
James Canan
Bureau of Indian Affalra
Billings, Montana
James Cannon
Council on Economic Priorities
New York. N.Y.
Paul Carpino
Denver, Colorado
Kathy Carter
Division of Intergovernmental
Relations
Dept. of Housing and Urban
Development
Washington, D.C.
Hon. Bill Christiansen
Hardln, Montana
Theodore H. Clack, Jr.
Office of Lieutenant Governor
Helena, Montana
George Collins
EPA. Region VIII
Denver, Colorado
Margaret Ann Cook
Lawrence, Kansas
Ellen Cotton
Decker, Montana
Robert Coltrane
USDA-ERS-NRED
Washington, D.C.
Otis Copeland
U.S. Forest Service
Ogden, Utah
xiii.
-------
Melvin L. Cotner
USDA-ERS-NRED
Washington, D.C.
William Crosswhlte
USDA-ERS-NRED
Washington, D.C.
Charles T. Crowley
Rural Electrification
Administration, USDA
Washington, D.C.
Frank Culver
Department of Natural
Resources and Conservation
Helena, Montana
Lynn Daft
USDA-ERS
Washington, D.C.
Ed Dahle
Busby, Montana
Jack Davidson
Water Resources Research Inst.
University of Wyoming
Laramle, Wyoming
Thomas Daves
Department of Economics
South Dakota State University
Brooklngs, South Dakota
Thomas Day
Dept. of Economics
South Dakota State University
Brooking*, South Dakota
George Dayton
U.S. Department of Labor
Federal Office Building
Denver, Colorado
Lois Dean, Director
Division of Intergovernmental
Relations
Department of HUD
Washington, D.C.
Alan Dlckerman
Bureau of Land Managi
Denver, Colorado
Thomas Dobbs
Dept. of Agricultural Bco.
University of Wyoming
La ramie, Wyoming
Ed Dobson
Friends of the Earth
Billings, Montana
Gerald Doeksen
Rural Development Service,
USDA
Stillvater, Oklahoma
Joseph Doherty
Rural Development Service,
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Torian Donohoe
Nye, Montana
Nina Dougherty
Sierra Club Northern Plains
Regional Conservation Commit.
Chadron, Nebraska
Richard W. Douglas
Buffalo, Wyoming
Richard Draper
Department of Planning and
Economic Development
Helena, Montana
Donald P. DuBols
Environmental Protection
Agency
Denver, Colorado
William F. Duhamel
Duhamel Broadcasting
Enterprises
Rapid City, South Dakota
R. Thomas Dundas
Division of Information Syst
Montana Department of Planning
and Economic Development
Helena, Montana
Mike Dunham
ACTION
Helena, Montana
Robert Eastman
Assistant Director of Federal
Programs
Bureau of Outdoor Recreation
Department of the Interior
Washington, D.C.
Douglas Bgan
Social and Rehabilitative
Services
Helena, Montana
Clell Elwood
Department of Health Education
and Welfare
Denver, Colorado
Grace Bates
Lower Brule
Tribal Council
Lover, South Dakota
Rich Eudy
Economic Development Association
of Eastern Montana
Sidney, Montana
James Falvey
Energy Planning Division
Department of Natural
Resources
Helena, Montana
Larry Pinnerty, Director
Sixth Plan ang Dev. Division
Rapid City, South Dakota
Allen L. Fisk
Bismarck, North Dakota
Kathy Fletcher
Environmental Defense Fund
Denver, Colorado
Robert Fletcher
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
University of Wyoming
Laramle, Wyoming
Daniel Foote
Northern Cheyenne Tribal
Council
Lame Deer, Montana
Sally Forbes
Sheridan, Wyoming
Marlon Forrester, Economist
Office of Policy and Plan*
Development
Washington, D.C.
Charles Fortney
Mary College
Bismarck, North Dakota
Ralph Red Fox
Busby, Montana
Margot Fraker
Dept. of the Interior
Denver, Colorado
Tom Fredrick
Boulder, Colorado
John C. FreV
Institute of Research for
Land and Water Resource*
Pennsylvania State Univeraity
University Park, Pennsylvania
H. Paul Frlesema
Public Lands Project
Northwestern University
Bvanston, Illinola
Glen Fulcher
Bureau of Land Management
Denver, Colorado
Ben F. Callages
Bureau of Indian Affair*
Lame Dear, Montana
xiv
-------
Mike Canseekl
EPA, Region VIII
Denver, Colorado
Rulon P. Gerfield
DHEtf Regional Director
Denver, Colorado
Stephanie Carrett
Department of the Interior
Waahlngton, D.C.
Phil 0. Cibbs
Bureau of Reclamation
Billings, Montana
Tom Gill
Environmental Quality Council
Helena, Montana
John Goera
Office of Lieutenant Governor
Capital Building
Helena, Montana
Alvina Graybear
Tribal Council
Standing Rock
Port Yatea, North Dakota
C. E. Crimea
Governor'a Office
Helena, Montana
Thomas P. Hady
USDA-ERS-EDD
Waahington, D.C.
George Hairlf
Mlaaoula, Montana
James H. Halley
Executive Vice President
Bunker Hill Company
Kellogg, Idaho
Blalne Halliday
Casper, Wyoming
Kent Hamilton
Bureau of Indian Affaire
Billings, Montana
>
Adrlen Hannua
Dept. of Rural Sociology
South Dakota State University
Brooklngs, South Dakota
Brian Hanson
Economic Development
Association of Eastern
Montana
Sidney, Montana
John Hanson
Office of Economic
Opportunity
Denver, Colorado
Carol Harlov
Northern Plains Resource Council
Billings, Montana
Gene Haasel
Project SEAM, USDA-FS
Billings, Montana
Marlon T. Hedegaard
Planning Support Group, BIA
Billings, Montana
Thor Hertsgaard
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
Paul Heaslnger
United Plainsmen Association
Bismarck. North Dakota
John Heyman
Bench Ranch
Fishtail, Montana
John Heyob
Office of Director
U.S. Department of Health
Education and Welfare
Denver, Colorado
Laney Hicks
Northern Plains Representative
Duboia, Wyoning
Joseph Hlnes
Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics R.O.
Kansas City, Missouri
Dr. Paul M. Hoff, Jr.
Kendrick Cattle Co.
Denver, Colorado
Helmar Holjl
Water Resources Research
Institute
Montana State University
Boteman, Montana
Lyle Hollenbeck
Bureau of Outdoor Recreation
Denver, Colorado
Gloria Horluchi
Department of HUD
Denver, Colorado
Betty Horsch
Kelly Walsh High School
Casper, Wyoming
John T. Rowley, Director
Interdepartmental Liaaon ORA
Washington, D.C.
Roy Huffman
Montana State University
Boseman, Montana
Ed Imhoff
Missouri River Basin.
Commission
Omaha, Nebraska
James 0. Jackson
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Billings, Montana
George S. Jennings
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Indian Water Rights Office
Denver, Colorado
David Jensen
Community Action Program
Billlnga, Montana
Patrick Jobes
Department of Sociology
Montana State University
Boceman, Montana
Gerald W. Johnson, Director
Division of Applied Technology
Atomic Energy Commission
Washington, D.C.
Helen Johnson
USDA-ERS-EDD
Washington, D.C.
Maxine Johnson
Bureau of Business and
Economic Research
University of Montana
Mlssoula, Montana
Robert Jones
Chief. Division of EiPC
Bureau of Land Management
Department of the Interior
Washington, D.C.
William B, Jones
Bureau of Fish and Wildlife
Billings, Montana
Max Jordan
USDA-ERS-EDD
Washington, D.C.
David B. Joseph
EPA, Region VIII
Denver, Colorado
Alvin M. Josephy
American Heritage Magailne
New York, N.Y.
Archie Judaon
Sixth Planning and
Development District
Rapid City, South Dakota
Linley B. Juers
USDA-ERS
Fort Collins, Colorado
XV
-------
Fred Kaiser
USDA-Foreat Service
Washington, D.C.
Cue Karabotao*, Chief
Planning Oiviaion
U.S. Any Bngr. Div.
Missouri River
Omaha, Nebraska
Ken Karls
The NOKQTA Company
Bismarck* North Dakota
Ernie Kemmia
Bureau of Land Management
Billings, Montana
John B. Kendrlck II, President
Kendrick Cattle Company
Sheridan National Building
Sheridan, Wyoming
Steven Kologi
Montana Dept. of Highways
Helena, Montana
Kenneth Krabbenhoft
Midwest Regional Office
National Park Service
Omaha, Nebraska
Orville B. Krause
USDA-ERS-NRED
Washington, D.C.
John Kuehn
USDA-ERS-EDD
Columbia, Mississippi
Peter Kuh
Washington, D.C.
Norman Landgren
USDA-ERS-NRED
Lincoln, Nebraska
James Van Lanen
Economics Department
Montana State University
Boseman, Montana
Linda Laakowaki
Northwestern Bell Telephone Co.
Fargo, North Dakota
William 0. Lockman
Environmental Analyst
American Metal Climax, Inc.
Denver, Colorado
Ralph Loomis
USDA-ERS-EDD
Pullman, Washington
Oscar Lund
South Dakota State Planning
Pierre, South Dakota
Bernard Manheimer
Dept. of HUD
Washington, D.C.
Bill and Sue Manning
School of Natural Resources
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan
ArdeLl Maraldson
North Dakota Project
Bismarck, North Dakota
Richard Marks
USDA-Extenslon Service
Washington, D.C.
Glenn Martin
Cincinnati, Ohio
Karen May
Dickinson, North Dakota
Albert C. Melcher
ROMCOE
Denver, Colorado
Stew Hettler
AMAX Company
Billings, Montana
Jesse Miller, Chairman
ARAPAHOE Business Council
Fort Waahakle, Wyoming
Paul Miller
University of Montana
Mlaaoula, Montana
Jared Mondry
Department of HUD
Denver, Colorado
Henry Lebak
State Planning Division
Bismarck, North Dakota
Edwin F. Montogomery
USDI-Bureau of Land
Management
Denver, Colorado
Van A. Llndquist
Intergovernmental Coordinator Bud Moran
Sixth Planning and Dev. District Northern Cheyenne Tribes
Rapid City, South Dakota Lame Deer, Montana
Avard B. Llnford
Bozeman, Montana
Gloria Morrison
Community Action Progn
Billings. Montana
William Motes
USDA-ERS-BDD
Washington, D.C.
John Muehlbeir, Secretary
Great Plains Agricultural
Council
USDA-ERS
Lincoln, Nebraska
Kit Muller
Northern Plains Resource
Council
Billings, Montana
Kenneth Murdock
Office of Chief of Engineers
Washington, D.C.
Alfred McAdams, Sr., Chairman
SHOSHONE Business Council
Fort Washakie, Wyoming
John McBrlde
Department of Geology
University of Montana
Richard J. McConnen
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
and Eco.
Montana State University
Bozeman, Montana
R. D. McKinney
Department of HUD
Denver, Colorado
Kenneth McLennan
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Policy Evaluation and Research
Department of Labor
Washington, D.C.
Wallace McMartln
USDA-ERS-NRED
Fargo. North Dakota
Wallace McRae
Lame Deer Stage
Forsyth, Montana
Jack Neckels, Director
State Planning Divialon
Bismarck, North Dakota
Lee Nellis
Laramie, Wyoming
Norman E. Nelaon
Black Hills Group, Sierra
Club
Rapid City, South Dakota
William Nelaon
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
JCVi
-------
Fletcher Nevby
Environmental Quality Council
State Capital
Helena, Montana
Daniel Nevnan
Montana Office of Bco.
Opportunity
Helena, Montana
Charles C. Newton
Office of State-federal
Relations
Cheyenne, Wyoming
James Nybo
Montana Dept. of Natural
Resources
Mitchell Building
Helena, Montana
David H. Olaon
Casper, Wyoming
Calvin Orav
CBS
Sidney, Montana
John Orcutt
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
Denver, Colorado
Bernlce Palmer
Bismarck, North Dakota
J. Zyerk Palter
Roy F. Weaton Consultants
Weatchester, Pennsylvania
Wilson J. Parker
Lincoln, Nebraska
John Pereau
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Northern Cheyenne Agency
Lame Deer, Montana
Jack Peterson
Old Boise Library
Boise, Idaho
Clynn Phillips
Water Resources Research
Inst.
University of Wyoming
Laramle, Wyoming
Vincent Plcard
Wyoming Association of
Counties
Laranie, Wyoming
Steve Plotkin
Office of Reaearch
Environmental Protection
Agency
Arlington, Virginia
Leon Poitras
Crow Water Commission
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Crow Agency, Montana
Dennis W. Potter, Director
Fifth District Planning and
Development Commission
Pierre, South Dakota
Robert Potter
USDA-Forest Service
Washington, D.C.
William Pulford
Bureau of Land Management
Denver Federal Center
Denver, Colorado
M. E. Quenemoen
Cooperative Extenstion
Service
Montana State University
Bozeman, Montana
J. J. Ratchye
Peter Kiewitt Son's, Co.
Sheridan, Wyoming
Jenny Red1in
Mlnot, North Dakota
William E. Rennebohm
Bureau of Outdoor Recreation
Department of Interior
Washington, D.C.
Clark Row
Forest Economics Research-
USDA
Washington, D.C.
Allen Rowland
Northern Cheyenne Agency
Lame Deer, Montana
Ed Royce
Environmental Protection
Agency
Arlington, Virginia
George Rucker
Rural Housing Alliance
Washington, D.C.
Nancy Rudio
AMAX Company
Billings, Montana
Charles Rust
Cooperative Extension Service
Montana State University
Bozeman, Montana
Dennis Sachs
Office of Secretary,
Program Dev.
Department of Interior
Washington, D-.C.
Jim Sansaver
Bureau of Indian Affaire
Billings, Montana
James Ssterlee
Dept. of Rural Sociology
South Dakota State University
Brooklngs, South Dakota
John J. Schanz, Jr.
Denver Research Institute
Denver, Colorado
Lyle P. Schertz
USDA-Economic Research Service
Washington, D.C.
Eldon C. Schriner
Dept. of Sociology-Anthropology
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
John Schwechten
Community Action Program
Billings, Montana
Donald M. Scnechel
Dept. of Agricultural Bco.
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North' Dakota
Vincent W. Shalley
Huron, South Dakota
Jim Shaw
Environmental Protection Agency
Denver, Colorado
Father William Sherman
Lecturer/Sociology Dept.
North Dakota State University
Fargo, North Dakota
Arnold J. Sllverman
Geology Department
Univereity of Montana
Missoula, Montana
Alfred Smith
Buffalo, Wyoming
Harold M. Smolnikar
Chief Project Engineer
Consolidation Coal Company
Bnglewood, Colorado
Lora Snake
Winnegago, Nebraska
Alonso Spang
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Northern Cheyenne Agency
Lame Deer, Montana
Sidney J. Spiegel
Bureau of Indian Affaire
Northern Cheyenne Agency
Lame Deer, Montana
xvii
-------
David A. Sprynesynatyk
North Dakota State Vater
Bismarck, North Dakota
Karl Starch
Bureau of Mines
Denver, Colorado
Janes St. Claire
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
Laramle, Wyoming
Robert H. Stell, Economist
Lakevood. Colorado
Roger Steinberg
Ag. Extension Servlce-
Dept. of Biology
South Dakota State University
Brookings, South Dakota
Wayne Stephens
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Billings, Montana
Alice Sterling
Institute for Social Science
Research
University of Montana
Missoula, Montana
Stan Stevens
Crow Agency, Montana
David Stewart, Chairman
Crow Tribal Council
Crow Agency, Montana
Thomas F. Stinson
USDA-ERS-EDD
St. Paul, Minnesota
Jerald Stroebele
U.S. Fish and Wildlife'Service
Billings, Montana
Roger W. Strohbehn
USDA-ERS-NRED
Washington, D.C.
Allan W. Strokes, Jr.
Colorado Open Space Council
Denver, Colorado
Richard Stroup
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
and Eco.
Montana State University
Boteman, Montana
Harold Strove
Basin Electric Power Company
Bismarck, North Dakota
Richard C. Stuby
USDA-ERS-EDD
Washington, D.C.
Gene F. Summers, Director
Center of Applied Sociology
Department of Rural Sociology
University of Wisconsin
Madison, Wisconsin
Sol Swerdloff
U.S. Department of Labor-BLS
Arlington. Virginia
Gordon Taylor
Environmental Protection Agency
Columbia, Maryland
June Thompson
Bismarck, North Dakota
Larry Tombaugh
National Science Foundation
Washington, D.C.
Leland Tond
Wolf Point, Montana
David R. Torkelson
Business and Industrial Dev.
Dept.
Bismarck, North Dakota
Stuart Townsend
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
and Eco.
Montana State University
Bozeman, Montana
Robert L. Tresler
Soil Conservation Service
Casper, Wyoming •
Robert Turner
Office of Economic Opportunity
Denver, Colorado
David VanDerburgh
Regional Director, OEO
Denver, Colorado
Margaret Veimlllian
Northern Plains Resource
Council
Billings, Montana
Robert L. Vertrees
Department of Economics
South Dakota State University
Brookings, South Dakota
Stanley W. Voelker
USDA-ERS-EDD
Fargo, North Dakota
Arthur J. Walrath
Dept. of Agricultural Eco.
Virginia Polytechnic Inst.
Blacksburg, Virginia
Charles Waabolt
Cooperative Extension Service
Montana State University
Boxeman, Montana
Curt Warner
Employment Security Com.
Helena, Montana
Robert Weiss
South Dakota State Capital
Pierre, South Dakota
Ralph Wells
Tribal Council
Fort Herthole Reservation
New Town, North Dakota
Doss White
Bureau of Mines
Denver, Colorado
Frank White Head
Bureau of Indian Affairs
New Town, North Dakota
Chaske F. Wicks
Standing Rock Sioux Tribe
Fort Yates, North Dakota
Gary Wicks. Head
Dept. of Natural Resources
and Con.
Helena, Montana
Fedrick A. Will
Office of Ass't Secretary for
Community & Field Services
U.S. Dept. of HEW
Washington, D.C.
Richard Winter
Bureau of Land Management
Wyoming State Office
Cheyenne, Wyoming
Ellen Withers
Northern Plains Resource
Council
Billings, Montana
Warren Wood
Old West Regional Commission
Silver Spring, Maryland
Robert Wrinkle
Environmental Protection
Agency
Arlington, Virginia
Lymann Yound
Tribal Council
Fort Belknap, Montana
Dudley B. Young
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Dept. of Labor
Washington, D.C.
mt
Edwin Zaldllcz
Bureau of Land Manag<
Billings, Montana
Micheal B. Zalnhofsky
Office of Economic Opportunlt;
Bismarck, North Dakota
xviii
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL ASPECTS OF POTENTIAL
COAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
SUMMARY
Statement of the Problem
America's demand for energy has been increasing at an alarming
rate. With the Arab oil embargo and the ensuing uncertainty over the
reliability of foreign supply, the question of energy has become more
real and more urgent. Policymakers now face the dilemma of trying to
balance public desire for more and cheaper energy with public concern
over environmental quality.
Given present technology, the Nation is highly dependent upon
fossil fuels for energy production; the most abundant fossil fuel is
coal. In the past, most of the coal mined in the United States has
come from the East, but recently attention has shifted to the American
West, especially the Northern Great Plains area, which is underlain
by vast deposits of easily mined, low-sulfur coal. Massive development
of these coal resources seems imminent.
Such development will mean unprecedented population growth, both
in magnitude and the speed with which it will occur. This is a decided
departure from the long-term trend of population decline in many
counties in the region. To compound the problem, this growth is likely
to be unevenly distributed. Large, short-term fluctuations in popu-
lation can be expected during the construction of coal conversion
plants. In addition, population growth will not be spread evenly over
the entire region. Instead, it will be concentrated in geographic
"pockets" of development.
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
It is perhaps difficult to visualize what all this means. A
person living in Chicago would hardly notice an influx of 750 to
1,000 people. However, in the Northern Great Plains, such an influx
could easily double or triple the population of an entire town, an
event which the inhabitants of the town could scarcely ignore.
Implications of Coal Development
It is apparent that rapid coal development has some potentially
large and far-reaching social, economic, and cultural implications for
the Northern Great Plains. Among the most serious are:
(1) Coal development may cause disruptions in other sectors of
the economy. The energy sector is expected to offer higher wages than
such sectors as agriculture and service. If labor supply is tight,
competition among these sectors could effect a number of changes in
the existing economy of the region.
(2) One of the problems with much of the economy of the Northern
Great Plains region is its dependence on one or two primary industries.
There has been some concern that the effects of coal development on
other sectors of the economy could conceivably reduce this primary
base to one. This has especially serious implications when one
considers that the long-term future of coal development cannot be
forseen with any certainty. Long-term stability will depend mainly
upon national demand for western coal, which could be radically altered
by changes in energy price structure such as would accompany the
development of new energy technologies.
(3) In the past, rural people have neither needed nor supported
elaborate planning and public service delivery mechanisms. However,
the rapid population Influx associated with coal development will
2
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
place severe strains upon service delivery systems in both the govern-
mental and non-governmental sectors. In many cases, lead times will
be short and community decisionmakers may find themselves in a
position where they must make decisions without adequate information.
(4) One effect of development will undoubtedly be the extension
of the extra-local controls of our urban and national systems. As
population increases, new demands will be placed upon governments at
all levels to expand services and generally widen the range and scope
of their activities and authority. In addition, many communities will
be subject to decisions made by the coal companies which may have a
national rather than a local perspective. The resulting loss of
local autonomy can have serious implications for residents who may
feel they are losing control over the important decisions affecting
their lives.
(5) Due to the complex nature of coal development, it is extremely
difficult to estimate its cumulative effects. However, these effects
may be critically important. Is the impact of two mines or power
plants in the same area twice as great as the impact of one, or is
it larger? Furthermore, how adaptable is the socio-economic environ-
ment? Do equal increments of change require equal adjustments on the
part of environmental elements, or do they require successively more?
It is quite possible that the impact of coal development in the Northern
Great Plains may be greater than the projection and analytic techniques
used in this report have been able to delineate.
Findings
The following represent the major findings of the Socio-Economic
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
and Cultural Aspects Work Group of the Northern Great Plains Resources
Program:
(1) The population increases attributable to coal development
will be large when compared to the size of existing populations. To
compound this, these increases will be both rapid and unevenly
distributed.
(2) Most of the communities in the impact area are small and
many have faced decline in past years. Probably the single most
important factor in the small town situation is the lack of human
resources. Community services are very limited due, in part, to the
fact that often there is no one with the interest and/or expertise
to provide leadership in many areas of local concern. For this and
other reasons, most of the communities in the Northern Great Plains
are not prepared to deal with the magnitude of change attending rapid
coal development.
(3) Many people in the Northern Great Plains region do not appear
to realize the potential magnitude of coal development and attendant
impacts. These include not only private citizens, but also providers
of both governmental and non-governmental services.
(4) The rapid Influx of population will Increase demand for ser-
vices out of proportion to its size. At present, newcomers to the
area are not satisfied with existing services. Many have come from
more densely populated areas where more services are available to
them and they appear to expect the same in their new surroundings.
The service preferences of immigrants have not really been determined,
but it is certain that these people will demand both a higher level
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
and a wider variety of services. To compound the problem, it is
likely that many services which were once provided on an informal,
person-to-person basis will have to be provided on a more formal
level by government and non-government service systems.
(5) Public service requirements will increase at a much faster
rate than revenue collection, especially in the early years of develop-
ment. This will present problems for local governments, many of which
already face financial strains, as they try to provide needed services
within the constraints of very limited budgets.
(6) There are three service areas of particular concern: housing,
health care, and education. Housing is already in short supply.
High interest rates and shortages of building materials and labor
would seem to indicate that the problem will worsen. There is an
additional problem in providing housing for a construction population
which will be larger than that resident during the operations phase.
Health care is already marginal In many areas in the Northern Great
Plains. Doctors are in short supply and many people must travel great
distances to secure their services. The problem will be compounded
with a rapid influx In population. Local school systems are also
expected to experience severe stress in responding to rapid population
Increases. It is quite possible that service systems will be over-
built in response to the construction boom and then left with excess
capacity later, placing an additional strain on the community.
(7) People in the Northern Great Plains region appear to be very
concerned about the loss of local autonomy. Nearly all who think
their lives are being significantly Impacted by coal development want
the right to have a say in thejleclsions which will affect them.
5
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
(8) It is difficult to generalize about the position of the
Indians concerning coal development. Tribal attitudes are extremely
diverse, both within the separate tribes as well as among them.
Probably the one central issue is self-determination: the right of
these Indians to control what happens to them and their lands.
Recommendations
The following represent the recommendations of the Socio-Economic
Work Group for potential solutions to some of the major problems of
coal development. The list is by no means exhaustive or all-inclusive.
It should be noted that these recommendations are the opinions of the
people who have prepared this report and do not in any way represent
official policy.
(1) Governments and government agencies at all levels can greatly
affect coal development and associated impacts. These entities should
examine their positions and attempt to define their responsibilities
and policies in this area. For example, Federal energy policy* the
National Environmental Protection Act, and Federal coal leasing
policies have all contributed to the increased interest in western
coal. At the state level, taxation and environmental quality legis-
lation can significantly alter coal development through changes in
relative prices. Such things as local land use policies can also
effectively channel patterns of development. It is important these
and other aspects of development and regulation be examined and
co-ordinated as they will ultimately affect the impacts of coal
development.
(2) If development is to proceed in a manner acceptable to local
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
people, these people must be involved in decision-making. To this
end, it is recommended that Coal Awareness Committees be formed to
act as information and advisory bodies. This is probably best
accomplished at the local level. However, in some instances, the
states may have to take the lead and aid the localities in getting
started.
(3) State and Federal governments should examine the extent of
their responsibility to local impact areas. It is felt that in many
instances these entitles must assume responsibility for helping
communities to deal with what are essentially local problems. It is
recommended, for example, that the concept of federally impacted areas
be extended to include those areas which are impacted as a result of
Federal energy policy. This would result in aid to localities for
provision of public services, especially health, education, and
housing.
(4) It is recommended that comprehensive planning boards be
established to act as repositories for Information concerning coal
development. These boards would review application for coal mines,
generating plants and gasification facilities. Knowledge of these
plans by one group would facilitate the planning needed at all levels
to minimize Impacts of coal development.
(5) States and localities shoultt jointly examine means to alleviate
local service delivery problems, such as disparities in service demands
and tax revenue collection. There are several possible solutions.
For example, State agencies can loan funds or provide outright grants
to affected localities for such items as education, public utilities,
etc. The States may create new agencies, e.g., State housing finance
7
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/7A
agencies such as created In South Dakota and proposed in Montana to
make low interest loans available for development of housing for low
and moderate Income families. If deemed desirable, the States could
enact legislation to provide accelerated or pre-payment of taxes by
industry to enable counties to develop service capability as needed.
(6) In many cases* there are existing Federal programs which
could provide funding for capital outlays for service facilities such
as water, sewer, transportation, housing, etc. However, Federal
paperwork is often confusing and officials in many communities may
be overwhelmed. Thus, it is recommended that states provide infor-
mation and technical assistance to localities to aid them in obtaining
such funding.
Report Overview
The report which follows contains a summary of approximately
twenty various individual studies conducted under the auspices of
the Socio-Economic Work Group of the Northern Great Plains Resources
Program. The document is intended to provide the reader with an
overview of the information which has been gathered on socio-economic
and cultural impacts of coal development in the Northern Great Plains.
It is divided into six chapters:
Chapter I - Provides background information on the study area
and defines the limiting assumptions under which the research
was conducted.
Chapter II - Examines potential changes in population which
can be attributed to alternative levels of coal development.
8
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
Chapter III - Discusses anticipated changes in life styles of
local residents resulting from rapid population increases and
the attendant acceleration of the urbanization process in the
impacted areas.
Chapter IV - Examines some of the social and demographic
changes which may occur in the life of the American Indian
as a result of coal development. These are largely tied to
the possibility that the Indian may become a minority on his
own reservation.
Chapter V - Estimates the increased demands upon governmental
service delivery systems which may occur as a result of rapid
population Increases. Discussion centers on the problems
which may arise and the methods available to alleviate them.
Chapter VI - Discusses the anticipated effects of coal develop-
ment upon non-governmental service agencies.
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
I. INTRODUCTION
This report attempts to sumnarize the socio-economic and
cultural implications of three alternative levels of coal development
in the Northern Great Plains. The report is drawn from 20 supporting
documents prepared by members of the Soclo-Economlc and Cultural
Aspects Work Group of the Northern Great Plains Resources Program.
These documents will be deposited in public repositories throughout
the Northern Great Plains Region. Their abstracts appear in the
references section of this report.
A great deal of useful information and analysis has been
gathered by the Work Group. This report presents an overview of the
major topics analyzed by the Work Group. An attempt has been made to
outline the limitations of the analyses in this report, and to indi-
cate areas where further research is needed.
The writers of this summary document are acutely aware of the
difficulty of distilling 1,200 pages of material contained in the
20 support documents to the present brief volume. A great deal of
very valuable material has been excluded. It is hoped that this
summary volume will serve as a stimulus for the reader to go directly
to the supporting documents in those areas in which he wishes more
detail.*
The Study Area
The study area consists of 20 counties in eastern Montana, 51
counties in Nebraska, 28 counties in western North Dakota, 15 counties
*The material for the rest of this Introduction is based on the
work of Daisted, Leistritz, Uertsgaard (1974), and Graham (1973).
11
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
in western South Dakota, and 8 counties in northeastern Wyoming
(Figure I).** From this, selected counties were used for impact
analyses. A frequently used grouping is designated "Impact Area"
(Figure 2).* A detailed physical description of the area can be
found in the Surface Resources Work Group Report and the Geology
Work Group Report (NGPRP 1974). A profile of the area's past and
present demographic and economic characteristics is presented in
Daisted, Leistritz, Hertsgaard (1974). A more detailed profile
analysis is contained in Graham (1973).
In general, the study area can be characterized as rural and
sparsely populated where the economy of the region has traditionally
based on agriculture. Energy extraction, chiefly oil and gas, has
also been important in some parts of the region, notably the Powder
River Basin in Wyoming and the Williston Basin in North Dakota and
Montana. Partly because employment in the agricultural sector has
been declining, the area has experienced fairly persistent outaigra-
tion (Table 1).
Table 1—Net migration in the Northern Great Plains
Impact area, 1960-1970
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
1960-1970
(Number)
- 8160
-26651
• 6036
Rate of net mf Brat ion
(Percent)
- 7.0
-17.4
- 5.9
Source: Daisted, Leistritz, Hertsgaard (1974).
*See Appendix for a listing of the counties included,
12
-------
u>
FIGURE 1—Socio-Economic Work Group Study Area,1 and Location of Commercial Coal
Deposits, Northern Great Plains States
Boundary of NGPRP
Study Area
Area of Commercial
Lignite Deposits
Area of Commercial
Subbttuminous Coal
Deposits
g
o
i
o
i Counties listed In Appendix.
Source: Daisied, Lelstrltz, Hertsgaard (1974)
s
•
-------
FIGURE 2—Principal Impact Areas,1 Northern Great Plains States
• SCOTTSBLUFF
n
§
§
O
z|
~
* Counties listed in Appendix.
Source: Daisied, Lelstrftz. Hertsgaard (1974)
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
This ouemigration has resulted in a population that has a lower
proportion of people in the economically productive age groups
of 25-55 than does the Nation as a whole.
The Scenarios
In order to provide a common basis for analysis, the Work
Group adopted the alternative levels of development provided by
the National Energy Considerations Work Group (NGPRP 1974).
Adopting this common framework was necessary in order to main-
tain internal consistency among the analyses being done by the Work
Group. It also enhanced the analytic comparability of this Work
Group Report with other NGPRP reports. Three alternative levels of
energy development, or scenarios, were provided for analysis. The
development alternatives consisted of projections of levels of
production of all energy resources within the region. Since the
plant and mine locations developed by the Minerals Resources Group
pertained to coal-related facilities only, the analysis contained
in this report deals only with coal-related development In the
Northern Great Plains region.
Scenario I is defined as a projection sufficient to supply:
(1) The future demand for coal within the region, (2) contracts for
future out-of-State coal shipments presently in existence or being
negotiated, and (3) other short-term, foreseeable demands. 'Scenario
II is a "most probable" level of development in the sense that it is
intented to reflect a future consistent with current trends and
conditions. Scenario III is a "crisis" level of development,
15
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
showing the effects that serious national shortfalls in Imported
oil and natural gas and delays in provision of nuclear generating
capacity would have on the region's resources (Table 2). These
levels of development were translated into numbers of facilities
(e.g., power plants) by the Minerals Work Group (NGPRP 1974). The
Minerals Work Group also selected possible sites for these facilities.*
The task of developing these scenarios was a very difficult one;
time constraints imposed on the Work Groups concerned were severe.
The following comments on the scenarios are meant to clarify our
own analysis and not to criticize the work done by others. The
timing, numbers, location, and types of coal processing facilities
projected have been questioned by several members of the Work Group.
For example, if Table 2 is carefully examined, it can be seen that
electrical generation capacity remains constant between scenarios
II and III, and that the additions to this capacity occur entirely
in the 1985-2000 period. This is an example of problems with the
scenarios which have caused some analysts to supplement the scenarios
for their own analytical purposes.**
Furthermore, it is important to realize that the way In which
the coal is processed and whether or not it is processed within the
region has extremely Important population implications for the region.
*For a detailed discussion of the location criteria, see
Minerals Work Group Report (NGPRP 1974).
**Polzln (1974) departed from the electrical generation projections.
Matson and Studer (1974) and Nebraska (1974) developed a "Scenario II-A"
for their analyses, which they felt were more realistic. Bureau of
Indian Affairs (1974) also developed some alternative projections for
Indian reservations in their report.
16
-------
Tabla 1—frojactad lacraaaa ow 1972 facllltUi mat capacltlaa U
scnoio n
Montana
•ortk Dakota
*-*
•abraafca
Total
(CBttllO II-
Montana
•ortb Dakota
+**
•abraaka
Total
SCDIAUO HI >
Montana
•ortb Dakota
-y-u.
Rabraaha
Total
•unbar of
additional
•loan
(Coal product Ion:
•lllloo tona
(JJ.9)
(11.7)
(24.1)
-TOT
(71.1)
"(«.»
A
(10.7)
-$T
(io^
(60.1)
»&)
(10.7)
(0)
(144.7)
1980
Additional
alactrlc
planta
(Capacity:
•atmtta)
~wT
~w~
(130)
(610)
(MO)
-ft"
«r
osoT
(610)
(9*57
-ft-
~ioT
03W
(6M»
(»«)
Additional
inalflcatlon
planta
•lllloa coble
faat par day)
(0)
-.oT
~ioT
0
(0)
TOT
TOT
-ft-
(0)
0
(0)
~wT
(7M)
(1000)
"ToT
(1750)
.
additional
(Coal production:
•llllon tona
par ynar)
Jt
(11.7)
(24.1)
0
~(o7~
(71.1)
(72.1)
-nU
(42.2)
-ft-
(1M.1)
(148.8)
(77.6)
(111.1)
(117.1)
1981
Additional
alactrlc
(anaratlna.
planca
(Capacity:
•aaavatta)
0
(0)
-ToT-
-^5T
(650)
(MO)
-*-
"ft-
(130)
(8SO)
2
(1180)
(0)
-ft-
(1M)
(810)
(1180)
Additional
oynthatlc
oaililcatlon
planta
(Capacity t
•lllloa cubic
faat par day)
(0)
(0)
-(§)-
-ft-
-*-
(7M)
(MO)
(100)
0
(0)
0710)
(2000)
(1100)
(1100)
(0)
20
(1000)
Sunbar of
additional
ndflaa
(Coal production:
•lllloa toea
par yoar)
(12.*)
(13.7)
(24.S)
-ft-
(71.1)
(130.8)
(129.2)
(71.6)
(0)
O11.6)
*o
(189. 8)
(219.1)
life
0
(0)
"»
(980.8)
Additional
nlactrtc
(onaratlai
plaata
(Capaeltyi
•aaavatta
(•100)
(1200)
TBV
(630)
(7480)
(4100)
(7100)
(iiV
(•»)
(13980)
(4100)
(7100)
(1110)
-ir
(11110)
Additional
ayothotlc
latlffcntloa
plant!
(Capacity I
•llllan cable
(oat par day)
(0)
0
(0)
-ft-
-*-
-TOT-
(flooy
(17»)
(710)
' W)
(4000)
(1710)
(42M)
(2210)
(10210)
y Tha nunkar of nav facllltlaa la ahom abova tha Una. tha Incranaa In aactor capacity la •komlMloif tha lien, for asanpla. Column 1 in
Scanario III ihovi that 4 nav olnaa ara projected for Hontaaa and that total coal production haa incraaaad by 60.1 •llltoa tona aloca 1972.
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Coal gasification and liqulficatlon are far more labor intensive
•
processes than is electrical power generation (Table 3). The
exact number of employees associated with each process is still
a matter of considerable debate among various researchers in the
field; the point to notice is the magnitude of the differences
involved. The implications of different proportions of the coal
produced in the region being processed in the region become clear
if one analyzes the consequences that varying this proportion has
for population.
Table 3—Estimated employment associated with
coal development activities
250 million cubic
feet per day
Bnployment coal gasification
plant^
Permanent 800
Construction-' A, 000
1200 megawatt
electric
generation
plant^'
110
3,000
5 million
tons per
year coal
mine
200
100
I/ Peak construction force.
2/ Lurgi process; does not include associated coal mine
employment•
3/ Does not include associated coal mine employment.
Source: Private industry data supplied by Wyoming DRPAn
A brief analysis of the Wyoming data for Scenarios II and III for
year 2000 was undertaken. It was found that If the ratio of coal
extracted to coal processed in the region for l«wn was held constant
for the year 2000, the population estimate increased from 238,000
to nearly 400,000.
18
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
The important point to be made about all the alternatives used
is that they provide a framework for analyzing the social, economic,
and cultural impacts of various levels of development. They are not
forecasts; they do not try to predict the future, but are used to
answer the question of "What will be the result if_ this or that
level of development takes place?"
Before leaving this brief discussion of the framework of our
analysis, it may be useful to discuss one other aspect of .the
applicability of the scenarios to our work. Many of the subjects
analyzed by this Work Group are difficult to quantify precisely.
Some of the study writers were not able to differentiate the impact
of the various scenarios on their subject area. In some cases it
was only possible to make a generalized statement that development
•
of the magnitude foreseen in any of the scenarios would have an
important impact.
19
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
II. POTENTIAL POPULATION CHANGE*
Population Models
The analytical models employed in Montana, Nebraska, North
Dakota, and Wyoming which evaluated the economic impacts of
alternative levels of energy development differed somewhat. The
methodology used in North Dakota Involved estimating local
expenditures for plant construction and plant operation in the
years 1980, 1985, and 2000 for each of the three scenarios. These
expenditures were then applied to North Dakota input-output inter-
dependence coefficients for the appropriate economic sectors.
This procedure provided estimates of the gross business volume
generated in all sectors by these expenditures. These gross
business volumes (which reflect both direct and indirect effects
of expanded economic activity) were then translated to resulting
changes in employment by dividing the estimated gross business
volume by output per worker ratios (gross business volume per
worker). Finally, the resulting estimates of increased employment
were then converted to estimated population changes by applying
population/employment ratios to the estimated employment.
The analyses conducted in Wyoming, Montana, and Nebraska
were based on models involving the ratio of basic employment to
secondary employment. The Wyoming study applied these ratios to
*The material for this section is based on the work of Polsin
(1974), Mataon and Studer (1974), Daisted, Leistritz, Hertsgaard
(1974), Dalsted and others (1974), Bureau of Reclamation (1974),
and Nebraska (1974).
21
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
estimated direct employment in coal-based industries for the years
I960, 1985, and 2000 for each of the three scenarios. This procedure
provided estimates of total employment, by industry and by year, for
the principal impact area. These estimates were translated to estimates
of total population in the area. Estimates for the area were
disaggregated to provide county-level estimates of population and
employment in each year for each scenario.
Direct and Indirect Employment. Direct and indirect employment
estimates associated with energy development were derived from
these models (Table 4). It should be noted that the methodologies
employed resulted in some rather large differences in the relation-
ship between direct and indirect employment changes. North Dakota
and Nebraska estimates of this relationship differ appreciably from
those of Montana and Wyoming.
Total Employment. Changes in total employment which would
occur under each scenario were estimated (Table 5). This table
takes into account employment changes in all sectors of the economy*
not just the energy sector.
Population Projection. The Impact of the three scenarios1 on
population in the Northern Great Plains region were developed
(Table 6). Population growth ranges from 15 percent for the 1970-2000
period under Scenario I to over 100 percent under Scenario III.
The population growth implied by all of the scenarios, but especially
II and III, are in sharp contrast to the recent demographic history
of the region, which grew by only 1 percent in the 1960-70 period.
22
-------
Table 4~EaploTBeat related to coal developneat, scenarios I, IX, and III.
U)
State Impact area,
Montaoa:
Direct operating
Averege construction
Total direct
Indirect
Total
Ratio i/
•ortb Dakota t
Direct operating
Average construction
Total direct
Indirect
Total
Ratio I/
Wyonlng:
Direct operating
Average construction
Totel direct
Indirect
Total
Ratio If
Nebraska:
Direct operating
Average construction
Total direct
Indirect
Totel
Ratio &
<
•w^^^—J
1980
1.031
1,348
2.379
6.922
9.301
2.91
699
1.101
1,800
1.854
3,65*
1.03
630
260
890
2.360
3.230
2.63
75
~~
75
122
225
1.95
EfiejUUCJfl I
1985
1,041
0
1.041
2.99J
4,039
2.88
708
0
708
465
1,173
0.66
640
200
840
2^380
3.220
2.83
75
~~
75
150
225
1.95
2000
1.727
1.003
2.730
7.371
10,101
2.70
995
297
1,292
1.689
2.981
1.31
860
0
860
2.590
3.450
3.01
73
~"
75
150
225
1.95
1980
1.113
1.359
2,472
7.194
9.666
2.91
708
1.101
1.809
2.583
4.392
1.43
800
1.690
2.490
6,360
8,850
2.55
75
""
75
Hi
225
1.95
Scenario II
1985
4.034
3,435
7,469
20.316
27,785
2.72
2,888
2.288
5.176
7.782
12.958
1.50
2.390
1.150
3.540
9.390
12,930
2.65
75
_
75
150
225
1.95
2000
5.551
1.047
6.598
16.824
23.422
2.55
9.652
3.746
13.398
24.661
38.059
1.84
3,820
0
3.820
11.590
15.410
3.03
115
"~
115
230
345
1.95
Si
1980
3.799
4,187
7.986
22.201
30.187
2.78
4.992
4.901
9.833
25.640
35,479
2.61
BOO
4.900
5.700
12.450
18.150
2.18
75
~~
75
150
225
1.95
emarlM ttt
1985
7.058
2.506
9.564
26.492
36.036 .
2.77
7.250
2.290
9.540
8.281
17.821
0.87
7.060
3.340
10.400
24.160
34.560
2.32
75
—
75
150
225
1.95
2000
14.327
1.989
16.916
40.464
56.780
2.48
21,443
6,039
27.476
37.993
65.469
1.38
14.550
0
14.550
20.090
54.640
2.76
115
^
115
129.
345
1.95
I/ Ratio of Indirect to direct enployncnt.
— • Data not available.
SB CD
o n
>* e
90 n
% CO
O
n
Source: Delated, Leletrlti. Hertsgoard (1974), end Nebraska State Office of Planning and Programing (1974).
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 5—Total employment projections for 1980, 1985, and 2000, by State
Impact areas, scenarios I, II, and III
1960
1970
1980
1985
2000
Scenario I:
Montana I/
North Dakota
Wyoming
Nebraska 2/
Total
Scenario II:
Montana A/
North Dakota
Wyoming
Nebraska 2/
Total
Scenario III:
Montana ]J
North Dakota
Wyoming
Nebraska 2/
Total
42,029
52,436
38,519
20.430
153,414
42,029
52,436
38,519
20,430
153,414
42,029
52,436
38,519
20.430
153,414
46,297
52,112
41,897
22.497
162,803
46,297
52,112
41,897
22.497
162,803
46,297
52,112
41,897
22.497
162,803
51,000
59,000
48,000
26.000
1/184,000
52,000
59,000
52,000
26.000
1/188,000
60,000
80,000
57,000
26.000
3/224,000
53,000
56,000
51,000
27.000
1/186,000
62,000
66,000
59,000
27.000
1/214,000
79,000
74,000
78,000
27.000
3/259,000
59,000
63,000
54,000
29.000
3/204,000
76,000
95,000
67,000
29.000
1/267,000
112,000
123,000
104,000
29.000
3/369,000
I/ Montana figures do not include construction employment and associated
service employment.
21 Scenarios II and III projected identical levels of development in
Nebraska.
I/ May not add due to rounding.
Source: Dalsted, Leistritz, Hertsgaard (1974).
24
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 6—Total population projections for 1980, 1985, and 2000, by State
Impact areas, scenarios I, II, and III
1960
1970
1980
1985
2000
Scenario I:
Montana I/
North Dakota
Wyoming
Nebraska 21
Total
Scenario II:
Montana I/
North Dakota
Wyoming
Nebraska 21
Total
Scenario III:
Montana I/
North Dakota
Wyoming
Nebraska 2/
Total
117,155
152,788
102,684
55.854
117,155
152,788
102,684
55.854
117,155
152,788
102,684
55.854
123,295
146,816
107,364
57.492
129,000
159,000
124,000
61.000
428,481 434,967 1/474,000
123,295
146,816
107,364
57.492
428,481 434,967
123,295
146,816
107,364
57.492
131,000
159,000
131,000
61.000
1/481,000
142,000
217,000
140,000
61.000
135,000
145,000
128,000
62.000
1/470,000
147,000
176,000
145,000
62.000
146,000
160,000
132,000
65.000
1/503,000
176,000
242,000
160,000
65.000
1/530,000 1/643,000
183,000
196,000
181,000
67.000
251,000
314,000
239,000
76.000
428,481 434,967 1/560,000 1/627,000 1/879*000
I/ Montana figures do not include population associated with construction
employment.
2J Scenarios II and III projected Identical levels of developments in
Nebraska.
I/ May not add due to rounding.
Source: Daisted, Leistritz, Hertsgaard (1974).
25
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Population Effects
Net Migration. One of the chief problems associated with growth
of the sice-and pace postulated in the foregoing tables will be that
of labor supply. Some analysts have indicated there is little
surplus labor available in the region. "Analysis of the income,
earnings and unemployment prevailing in the Powder River Basin in
Wyoming does not Indicate the existence of any substantial pool
of readily available labor. It must be concluded that the bulk
of new labor must either be bid away from existing activities or
else hired from outside the area" (Matson and Studer, 1974, p. 141).
They conclude that substantial inmigration will, therefore, be
necessary if the supply of labor is to be in balance with the demand.
Polxln (1974), however, supplies very different projections of net
migration for Montana (Table 7). The radical differences are due
to differing assumptions about the extent of employment of women
and young people. Both sets of assumptions appear equally reasonable.
The existing surplus labor pool in the Montana impact area appears
to be larger than the pool in the Wyoming area. It is important
to note, however, that a relatively small change in assumptions In
the labor force participation rate leads to rather large differences
In levels of net migration.
Migration as described in Table 7 refers to net migration. It
does not necessarily reflect the number of new residents that would
move Into the region; present residents could leave and be replaced
by an equal number of people from outside the regions, which would1
show up as ««ro net migration. It should be noted that almost nothing
26
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
is known about the prospective new residents of the region. Where
they will come from, what their socio-economic characteristics will
be, and how often they will move are among the questions that still
need to be answered. The socio-economic characteristics of the new
residents is of particular importance, since family size, age of
children, and other factors have important effects on the kinds of
services they will demand.
Table /—Net migration in Montana I/ and Wyoming 2/ impact areas 3/
1960-70 1970-80
Scenario I:
Montana -8,160 -8,046
Wyoming -6,036 5,592
Scenario II:
Montana -8,160 -6,800
Wyoming -6,036 11,892
Scenario III:
Montana -8,160 3,884
Wyoming -6,036 20,862
I/ Includes Big Horn, Custer, Musselshell, Power River, Rosebud,
Treasure, and Yellowstone Counties.
2f. Includes Campbell, Converse, Crook, Johnson, Natrona, Nlobrara,
Sheridan, and Weston Counties.
3/ No estimates of net migration were made by the authors of
the North Dakota and Nebraska economic impact reports.
Source: Daisted, Leistrits, Hertsgaard (1974), and Matson and
Studer (1974).
Labor Supply. A serious question raised by some analysts
has been whether the supply of labor will, even with immigration,
be sufficient to fill demand. It can be argued, for example, that
27
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 0/74
coal-related employment will pay wages higher than the {prevailing
wages in other sectors. Labor could be bid away from these sectors
by coal-related developments. This will be particularly critical
to the agricultural and service sectors of the economy. Traditionally,
these sectors have not been able to pay the level of wages that
energy companies anticipate paying. It may be difficult for them
to compete in the future labor market. Substantial substitution
of capital for labor may be necessary in these sectors. It must
be stressed that further empirical research is needed. Chronic
labor shortages do, however, appear to be a reasonable possibility
on a priori grounds.*
At present, per capita money Income is generally lower than
the U.S. average (Table 8). It is expected that income levels will
show significant changes as a result of coal development. These
Increases will be necessary to attract workers from other regions.
The earnings distribution of a coal gasification plant (using 1972
figures) was compared with the 1969 earnings distribution in Mercer
County, North Dakota, one of the principal impact areas (Table 9).
Although the comparison is between 1969 and 1972 dollars, it
nevertheless shows the contrast between existing wage levels and
those that will likely be paid by the energy companies. Average
annual earnings by a gasification plant worker may be nearly double
the earnings of noncoal Industry workers. Measured in 1972 dollars,
they are in the $12,500-$13,500 range for workers in either
gasification plants, power plants, or coal mines.
*For further discussion, see Matson and Studer 1974, pp. 131-139
and pp. 144-145 and Daisted, Leistritr, Hertsgaard 1974, pp. 62-64.
28
-------
to
laoxe o— rer capita money income ror noncana, neorasKi
impact areas, as percent of U.S. incoi
State
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Wyoming
Weighted average
four States
United States
Whole
Per capita
money Income
$2,696
2,797
2,469
2,895
2,720
3,119
•tate
i, norcn wait
ae, 1970
Impact
Percent of Per capita
United States money income
86.4
89.7
79.2
92.8
87.2
100.0
$2,729
2,691
2,315
3,143
2,687
3,119
oca, Wyoming, an<
counties
Percent of
United States
87.5
86.3
74.2
100.8
86.1
100.0
Source: Dalsted, Leistrltz, Hertsgaard (1974).
580
3?
8
Ht
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 9—Earnings distribution of a typical coal gasification plant
and of Mercer County, North Dakota male workers
Earnings
Typical
gasification
plant
(1972 Dollars)
Mercer County
male
workers ..
(1969 Dollars) -'
Less than $6,000
$6,000 to $7,999
$8,000 to $9,999
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $24,999
$25,000 and over
Average annual earnings
0.0
3.8
48.7
41.0
6.4
0.1
12,630
56.1
18.0
14.4
8.6
2.3
0.5
5,792
I/ There is some distortion in these figures. Inflation has
made a dollar worth less in 1972 than in 1969. However, these
distributions cannot be adjusted because the raw data used to
generate the percentages are not available.
Source: Dalsted, Lelstritz, Herftsgaard (1974).
Population Stability. Rapid development of the kind foreseen
in this region also poses a question about the stability of the
population. Some facilities contained in the scenarios, notably
coal gasification plants and electrical generating plants, require
very large construction forces. For example, a Bureau of Reclamation
study (1974), projecting construction force levels on a year-by-
year basis for Campbell County, Wyoming, showed wide fluctuations
over the years under any of the three scenarios (Figure 3).
30
-------
Discussion Draft e/74
NGPWV
FIGURE 3—Estimated Annual Average Construction Employment during Construction
of Facilities for Mining, Electrical Plants, and Gasification Plants,,
Campbell County, Wyoming, 1975-2000
5600
4900
4200
3500
o.
8
0>
O 2800
ui
OB
2100
1400
700
Scenario I
Scenario II
Scenario III
1975 ' 1980
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974)
1985
1990
1995
2000
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Fluctuations of this magnitude would cause very substantial
short-term population variations in the immediate local areas where
the facility was being built.
However, whether or not these fluctuations would actually come
about is open to question. There is some reason to believe that
there will be sequential construction projects going on in the impact
areas. This could allow construction workers to live in the general
area on a permanent basis, following the construction work as it
becomes available. Such a pool of construction workers would be
equivalent to new permanent workers in their effect on the economies
of the local areas. In sum, the extent of short-term local
fluctuations in population is a question still to be resolved.
The long-term stability of the population is another important
area of concern. The three scenarios developed for analysis do not
imply a decline In population in any of the impact areas for the
overall period of 1970-2000. It should be noted, however, that the
scenarios do imply an increasing economic dependence on coal. It
can be reasoned, therefore, that the long-term stability of the region
will depend on the stability of the demand for Northern Great Plains
coal. Further, to the extent that the economic base of the region
becomes increasingly concentrated in one sector, the potential of
economic fluctuation increases. Although not envisioned in the
scenarios, the possibility of substantial economic diversification
resulting from coal development has frequently been mentioned by
other analysts. Their reasoning is that the availability of
32
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
dependable electrical power and petrochemical byproducts of coal
gasification and llqulflcation may lead to another round of Industrial
growth. It would seem reasonable that such diversification would
tend to make the region's economy more stable. This second round
of industrial growth was not included in any of the scenarios
analyzed in this report. To the extent that it occurs, the
p'rojections in this report would be underestimated.
The Spatial Impact
In considering the impact of the developments contained in
the scenarios, it is important to realize that population growth
will not be evenly spread over the entire Northern Great Plains.
On the contrary, some subregions will experience far more rapid
growth than others. For example, the population in Campbell
County, Wyoming, might Increase 131 percent in the 1970-2000
period under Scenario II. Nlobrara County, its neighbor to the
east, might have a decline of 15 percent. This pattern of highly
concentrated impact is generally true of all of the study areas.
•
In general, this concentrated impact will intensify the impact
of rapid population growth.
This is not to say, however, that there will not be important
regional effects of population pressure. The Rocky Mountains on
the western edge of the region and the Black Hills in northwest
South Dakota will certainly f«el the impact of accelerated
recreation development from the Increased population in the area.
33
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Another aspect of the spatial pattern of population impact is
the question of settlement patterns. This question has important
implications. The costs of providing services can be expected to
vary significantly, depending on the pattern of settlement. For
example, the costs for school bus transportation would be lover if
growth occurs in established towns rather than in a highway strip
between these towns and a coal development site. Higher costs could
also be expected for other services, such as fire protection,
police protection, and ambulance services.
Further Research Needs
Some of the fields for further research were mentioned earlier.
They are discussed in more detail below.
1. The population growth described in this report poses
substantial challenges to the provision of housing
and public services. The way in which these challenges
are met will be extremely important in determining the
living environment for residents of the Northern Great
Plains for many years to come. Generally speaking, the
i
work summarized in this report does not address itself
to solving these problems.
2. The labor supply discussed above is an Important area of
concern. Directly related to this problem is the question
of levels of inmigration and outmlgration. What effect
will economic growth have on the migration patterns of
the young people In the region? Much more research needs
to be done In this field.
34
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
3. Labor supply and migration levels are interrelated with
income levels. Obviously, one way to increase the supply
of labor is to increase the price offered for it. Current
research on interregional migration usually indicates that
the rate of in-migration into an area depends to an important
degree on the relative wages, after adjusting for differences
in the cost of living. It seems clear that living costs—
notably for housing—will rise markedly in the impacted areas
in coming years. Migrants will expect wages high enough
to cover these costs and still give them the incentive
to move.
4. The nature of the eventual change in the settlement pattern
largely depends on the extent to which public planning
agencies come to grips with the housing problems associated
with the growth of energy activities. Unfortunately, this
is another field where far too little research is underway.
In the long run, the housing of workers may be the most
important environmental decision made in the Northern
Great Plains.
5. Much uncertainty remains regarding the impact of potential
energy development on the settlement patterns of the
Northern Great Plains region. The existing pattern is
dominated by the importance of the county seat town.
Whether future urban growth will occur in these existing
towns or in other places has not yet been determined.
35
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
The locations of potential impact in relation to existing
communities is different for all the counties. Each
community oust assess its own special problems.
6. Finally, a specific need for analysis lies in the Impact
coal development will have on the transportation of grain
by railroads.
7. The competition for labor and changes in wage rates as a re-
sult of coal development will have a direct effect on other
industries, including agriculture, petroleum, and service
industries. The effects of coal development on other industry
and the aggregate effect on the economy of the region requires
analysis.
8. Alternative resource allocation decisions need study. Prom
a regional standpoint, this involves the implications of
alternative uses of water and alternative rural development
routes—Including deliberate isolation/minimum urbanization.
From a national standpoint, the implications of regional rural
development need to be placed into a national context. When
considering alternative natural resource use this includes
the relation of the use of the resources of one region as
opposed to that of another, and present use versus future
use, e.g. petrochemical reserves.
36
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
III. ANTICIPATED SOCIAL EFFECTS
One of the most difficult aspects to understand about
development is its affect upon the people who live in the area.
Social change is a very complex process. In addition, just as
individuals are different, so are communities making it.very
difficult to generalize from place to place. Within the scope
of the Northern Great Plains Resource Program, it has not been *
possible to analyze the entire area. Instead, various researchers
have examined discreet aspects of development; the results are
presented in this section as sketches of these aspects. It ds
hoped that these sketches will enable the reader to develop an
understanding of the attitudes and feelings of those poeple living
in areas where massive coal development may become a reality.
Urbanization of the NGP—A Typology
America is typically described as an urban Nation; a vast
majority of the people live in urban areas. As more and more areas
become urban, it is important to examine the process by which rural
people become enmeshed in extra-community systems.*
* The following discussion is based on the work of Sam Carnes and
H. Paul Frlesema, "Urbanization and the Northern Great Plains"
Essentially, this work is a review of relevant literature concerning
the urbanization of rural areas. It is not site-specific to the
Northern Great Plains. However, the information generated can be
valuable as an analytic framework.
37
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
It is unlikely that any area in the United States is so remote
and Isolated that it is unaffected by events in the larger society.
Electronic media transmit messages to the most remote areas of the
country and have undoubtedly accelerated our movement towards a
national society and a national culture.
This phenomenon is a manifestation of "urbanization.'' The
term urbanization can mean different things; many scholars and
laymen tend to think of it merely as an increase in population
and population density. It seems more useful to think of urbaniza-
tion as a process that can fundamentally change the way people
relate to one another, with a movement away from the primary
community towards a secondary community.
As one relates the phenomena of urbanization to the effect
coal development will have on the social structure of the Northern
Great Plains, the essential ingredient is time. Thus, although
the Northern Great Plains is gradually becoming urbanized along
with the rest of the Nation, coal development will accelerate
urbanization.
Urbanization is not simply the growth of population. A town
like Hardin, Montana, could become rapidly "urbanized" even without
an increase in population, if, for example, the activities of the
residents become increasingly tied into and dependent on decisions
made in urban control centers such as Chicago and Washington, D.C.;
if there was a rapid increase In the complexity of the division of
labor; and if residents became far less oriented toward people and
38
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
institutions in Hardin, as a community, and far more oriented to
extra-community activities. The basic transformation of Hardin would
probably be accompanied by rapid population growth, of course. But
urbanization concerns the way in which the territorial community is
socially organized; not the number people who live there.
Part of the price of industrial development is the extension of
social controls of our urban and national system. Development almost
always brings with it increases in population; this causes new demands
on local governments to expand services, to arbitrate disputes, and
generally to widen the range and scope of their levers of social
control. In addition to the controls emanating from Federal, State
and local governments, people are also subject to decisions of corpo-
rations that have branch plants in their communities. Decisions
concerning employment criteria, job security, and the general operation
of the plant may be made in corporate headquarters in New York or
Chicago, rather than in the community itself. The net result of these
activities in the Northern Great Plains area will Include a decline
In local autonomy, exposure to conflicting norms, and a fragmenting
of the existing social order.
Effects on the Social Order.
The Individual: Urbanization, with its attendant processes of
specialization and differentiation of Interests, changing associations
and Increased Interdependencies, will largely transform the individual's
relationship with his neighbors and his city. This is neither to say
39
-------
Discussion Draft
MGPRP - 6/74
that rural people are homogeneous nor that their towns function as
tightly knit communities. There are differences. Nevertheless, there
is still an appearance of similarity of interests and values, and
inhabitants do characterize their communities as essentially "classless"
and egalitarian. The residents share essential values and ideologies,
and find comfort in the commonality.
When a community is faced with an intrusion of newcomers, its
individual members are inevitably introduced to new values and new
Ideologies. As this new value system is being synthesized, the
individual must change his source of dependence; he becomes absorbed
into a larger national network. Dependence on a larger control
system frees the Individual from the pressures of his immediate
surroundings, yet in no sense is he autonomous.
Typically, as social change occurs, people tend to long for
the good old days. They experience a kind of homesickness for
earlier times, when everybody in a community knew and trusted each
other. Oldtlmers wish that things could be the way they used to
be, and newcomers initially wish they were back in their previous
homes, towns, and communities. Newcomers perceive that not enough
goods and services are available, compared to where they used to
live and oldtlmers complain that goods and services are not as
good as before the newcomers came to town and messed things up.
The individual is not a total loser in a boom situation.
Although he may suffer from a sense of uncertainty during the
transitional period, his individual freedom may also increase.
40
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
It is, of course, a value judgment as to whether or not this increase
in individual liberty is good or bad. (Russian novelist Dostoevski
maintained that freedom confuses rather than liberates.) At any
rate, whether or not the area is subjected to coal development,
its inhabitants will probably have to eventually face the psy-
chological problems of urbanization in the normal course of events.
The Family; The American rural family has traditionally been
a strong one. Kinship and extended family ties are important. It
provides a basis for economic cooperation and the sharing of activ-
ities. The family has been and is the primary agent of socializa-
tion and social control. For these rural families, particularly
farmers and ranchers, home is more than the location of residence.
They are apt to be very attached to their physical domain; their
land is not merely valued as an investment. These families,
however, are already being touched by urbanizing influences.
Urbanization tends to weaken family ties, and subsequently
undermines the traditional social control of the rural community.
The opportunity for offspring to seek employment in a nonagricul-
tural industry lessens their dependence on the family. With the
breakdown of family dependence, communities must take on increased
responsibilities. Schools, churches, and governmental agencies
such as social services and welfare boards provide services and
controls that traditionally were handled within the family unit.
Urbanization also affects the family structure in that it
separates one's workplace from his or her home, and consequently
41
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
results in greater independence from family members. Friendship
will be between individuals rather than between families. Hus-
bands may become good friends because of working together but
their wives may despise each other. School children develop
friendships irrespective of race, ethnic background or geograph-
ical proximity of their homes.
Certainly, urbanization may have some positive effects on the
family structure too. There will be greater individual freedom.
The small community characteristic of knowing everything about one
another will be replaced by a greater degree of personal privacy,
if a family prefers it.
Industrialization of the Northern Great Plains may have
contradictory consequences for the family. On the one hand, the
number of jobs in the local area will increase, thereby offsetting
the tendency for young people to leave the community in search
of jobs. However, industrialization is also likely to spur the
disintegration of the extended family, and although adult children
may stay in the same geographic region, they may see their parents
only Infrequently.
A further effect of coal development on the family structure
will be a change in the role and status of women. More services
will be available in the community, which may give the wife or
homemaker member of the household more free time. These services
and new businesses will make more jobs available to women, which
42
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
will tend to give them more weight in both economic and political
factors.
Group and Sub-Culture Relations: Coal development will bring
several new groups of people into the rural communities in Impacted
areas. Middle and lower-middle class blue-collar workers and their
families, upper-middle and lower-upper class white collar technical
personnel, plant managers, medical doctors, dentists, lawyers, and
governmental agency representatives will all funnel into the here-
to-fore small rural towns like Broadus, Zap, and Beula. With the
new mixture of population, the social and political systems in
f
communities will become increasingly complex, and social stratifica-
tion may become more rather than less distinct. The natives will
be watching their old friends and neighbors to see how they deal
with newcomers, and new interpersonal relationships will appear.
Since history shows that social stratification occurs in all
societies of the world, it will likely persist in the coal impact
areas: in access to social and civic groups, in local leadership,
and in housing. Patterns of residential segregation may become
more pronounced. For instance, new families may find it necessary
at first to locate according to physical availability of housing
and convenience to place of work; later, they can move to a place
considered more desirable because of the type of people who live
there.
Rural Society: Some discussion must be given to the effect of
urbanization on rural society as a whole and on community
43
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Institutions as they presently exist. What will be the urbaniza-
tion effects on the church as a social institution, on the role
of mass media maintaining newly established communication networks,
and on the level of crime and disorder?
With urbanization, the church is likely to lose its position
as a leader of community opinion and become a follower instead.
With a smaller percentage of the population regularly affiliating
with the local church, its spiritual Influence will be weakened.
As the church becomes less influential in the lives of individuals
and families, it can no longer enforce its moral codes and prevent
antisocial behavior.
However, churches do appear to become economically stronger
even as they become spiritually weaker. More social service
programs proliferate, and the higher Incomes of the new parishoners
are reflected in higher levels of giving per family.
At present, the local rural newspaper is usually an organ for
presenting local news and the local image. It may undergo change
in response to the demands of its principal source of revenue—
local businesses that communicate their services and prices through
advertising. During early stages of urbanization, the local press
will yield to the demands of advertisers, probably antagonizing
the natives who find less local news and gossip and more advertising,
There Is some empirical and theoretical evidence that indus-
trialization and urbanization are highly correlated with rising
crime and deviance from traditional social norms. As discussed
44
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
earlier in the report, the effect of urbanization on the family
structure and on the church as agents of social control partly
explains why crimes increase with industrialization.
For small towns, one effect of coal development will be the
need for additional law enforcement personnel. These new law
officers may be newcomers, unfamiliar with the norms and the culture
of the community, thus increasing the level of impersonalness
between the police and the general public.
It seems safe to conclude that, with the coming of new types
of people, the police, court systems, and social agencies will have
their hands full with more crime and social deviance.
Shifts in the Power Structure
Rural political systems are moving toward integration with the
national political system, due to the trend toward centralization
of power in the Federal Government. Nevertheless, they still
differ enough from urban political systems to warrant examination
of the effect urbanization will have on them. The most distin-
guishing characteristic of rural political systems is the
personalism that guides the way decisions are made, leaders are
chosen, and policies are Implemented. Small town governments are
generally nonpartlsan, with little if any formal political organiza-
tion. Typically the job of mayor is "passed around" among the
businessmen, who hassle with the minutia of seeing that taxes are
collected and streets are repaired In the summer and kept free of
snow in the winter.
45
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPR* - 6/74
The grassroots democracy usually attributed to small town
politics is based on the concepts of personal loyalties and
friendships. The ideology of small town America indicates that
small towns are among the most egalitarian political and social
systems to be found. As such, power elites do not exist, and
all men and women participate, if only minimally, and no one's
opinion is better than another's. This view, whether myth or
reality, does serve at least one purpose: it tends to permeate the
attitudes of small town residents and alter their perceptions and
behavior on political issues, leading to an atmosphere of unanimity
and democracy that may not exist.
When there is a dominant economic interest, as there may be
in some of the rural communities being impacted by coal development,
representatives of that interest tend to dominate the political
environment of the area. The transition from small town to boom
town to urban area will involve all sorts of changes in the local
power structure. The differentiation and specialization of
interests, associations, and interdependencles that accompany
urbanization and industrialization have their effects on the local
political system, as well as in other dimensions of life described
earlier. Urbanization will attract newcomers from different
backgrounds, with different interests, with more and different
demands to be placed on the political system.
Local governments and political agents will begin to operate
through secondary relationships. The attention that one inhabitant
46
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
might receive from governmental officials in the small town will
weaken with increases in the societal scale. Part of the reason
for this change is that some newcomers will come from situations
where politics operated at urban levels, rather than small town
levels. A new, more urban style of politics will emerge, where
people begin to participate in greater numbers and with greater
intensity.
However, the new situation may not truly democratize the
political process, for if. one elite (farmers, ranchers, or local
merchants) is replaced by another elite (the mining and power plant
industry), the style of politics can remain much the same. In the
end, however, new organizations of all kinds will compete with each
other for respect and dominance, so that membership in any one
organization might not Insure success in the policital arena.
Traditional authorities—whether the family, the school, the church,
the tribal council, or the village government—will be supplanted
by new social and political organizations.
Even the representatives of the mining industry are likely to
have diverse backgrounds and Interests. They will undoubtedly try
to accommodate themselves to the local system to some extent in
order to make themselves more acceptable to the community. Games
predicts that if the new industries do take an active role in
community political affairs, they will do so gently and over
matters largely trivial and unimportant.
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
The above discussion leads to the conclusion that the
recruitment and selection of political leaders and leaders of.
social, civic, and fraternal groups will change immensely. The
new leaders will probably be younger, more educated, and more
heterogeneous.
As discussed above, changes in power structure and access to
power will likely occur whether or not coal development takes
place. As is pointed out, the important Ingredients are time and
the extent of development: if massive development occurs in a
short span of time—-less than 10 years—changes will come about so
fast that local governments and politicians might have to willingly
(or unwillingly but out of necessity) surrender their home rule to
higher level governments which have the expertise, sophistication,
and control to handle the problems.
A Comparative Case Study; An Empirical Approach
In an attempt to predict and understand the effects of coal
development on lifestyles and culture in the Northern Great Plains,
the Institute of Social Science Research of the University of
Montana conducted ethnographic research, "A Comparative Case Study
of the Impact of Coal Development on the Way of Life of People in
the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana and Northeastern Wyoming"
(ISSR, 1974).
Ethnographic research involves interacting personally with
many people who are representative members of the study area's
several natural communities and of its various other social
48
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
categories. The ISSR research team took notes of their conversa-
tions with and accompanying observations of about 1,000 people.
They formally scheduled interviews with 300 of them, while actually
living in the study areas of Colstrip, Forayth, and Gillette. Gold
suggests that, although his findings constitute an empirically
sound beginning in understanding the social impact of coal develop-
ment on people in Montana and Wyoming, several years of continuous
research should be undertaken, using combinations of ethnographic
and quantitative methods of data collection, in order to fully
document this social Impact in the fundamental terms of changes
in human organizations, social relationships, and Individual
behavior.
The ISSR study team examined the impact of coal development
on the way of life of people in the coal areas of eastern Montana
and northeastern Wyoming. They focused on the social effects the
construction activities contracted for by Montana Power and its
associates have had to date on Colstrip and Forsyth, Montana
(including the Decker-Birney-Ashland area), and on the present and
anticipated social Impact of increased coal development in the
vicinity of Gillette, Wyoming. The purpose of the research was to
present the views, thoughts, feelings and reactions of the people
living in these areas regarding the impact which coal development is
having on their way of life.
* For an extensive discussion of the uses, techniques, and listing
of ethnographic study, see ISSR, pp. 1-35.
49
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
USSR report is a complex document, dealing with several
aspects of the social impact of coal development. It is
extremely difficult to summarize and still capture a feeling
for the area as seen through the eyes of its inhabitants. Because
of this, a section of the report was chosen as represented of the
type of issues and feelings evident in the area. For more complete
treatment of these issues, the reader is referred to the support
document .
This excerpt is taken verbatum from Part VI of the ISSR
discussion draft dated April 22, 1974. It is a distilled,
retrospective look by the ISSR study team upon some of its findings.
ISSR Study Extract
At present, land in the study area which has no strippable
coal is less economically attractive than that which does have coal
beds lying underneath. However, stripping does create some long-
term problems. It entails a sacrifice of recreational values and
of future land use possibilities, according to some informants.
Many believe that the choice for coal development means there will
be less food production both now and in the future, while others
feel that some of the land may be more productive following mining
and reclamation. Because stripping frequently does extensive
damage to the land, concerned ranchers maintain that the cost of
this kind of mining should be calculated in terms of the overall
long-run effects created rather than solely in terms of the economic
feasibility of surface as opposed to underground coal extraction
techniques. When mineral rights agreements were originally signed,
there was no concept of strip m-tn-tng and it was assumed that
50
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
underground mining might be done some day. Many ranchers consider
it unfair that this assumption is being ignored. They believe the
nation should pay a realistically high price for the coal and should
therefore deep mine it, not strip and destroy the land and violate
the original agreement between ranchers and the Federal Government.1
Others, considerably fewer in number, view the land only as a means
to earning a living; it has no intrinsic and enduring value for
them. This group views the land primarily as a business item and
is willing to risk its destruction and even put up with people
pollution if the price is right.
Outsiders see the land as expendable, and ranchers sense that
these people also look upon them as expendable and place a low
value on the Western way of life. The ranch offers freedom, absence
of regimentation, isolation, and quiet. Coal development threatens
all these as well as the aesthetics of the area. Most ranchers feel
that a demented value system is being Imposed upon them and that
their Western hospitality and trust are being violated. For
example, newcomers do not have the same respect for the land as do
the ranchers, who are more bewildered than angry about the abuses
1-Some feel that the land above deep-mined coal would fall in an
amount equal to the thickness of the mined seam; as such, natural
stratification would be maintained. The most undesirable feature
of deep mining is that it would bring in even more poeple than are
required for strip mining. However, some informants maintain that
there should not be extensive deep mining out here when the vast
deposits of low-sulphur, high BTU coal in the East could be deep
mined to supply the energy needs of that part of the nation.
51
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
to which their property has already been subjected by the influx
of sloppy and careless trespassers. Many newcomers act as if
these ranches are public property. 2
Aside from having to deal with a great many new people who have
a foreign set of values, ranchers are beset by a number of other
difficult aspects related to coal development — aspects which have
put them in a very vulnerable position. First of all, neighboring
•
ranchers are highly interdependent and together comprise a fragile
social system which is in danger of collapsing if only one or two
ranchers sell out. Commenting on the fragility of the situation,
one informant flatly stated, "That sums it all up." Another
informant explained:
Tea/Ung up one.1 A loot* to altota *oo££e*4 people Juri It* not
a AotAtaJiy act. It ha& a big impact on one,' A nughbou,
on tkeJA vtat&i, on the**. abiLity to tivt a& thty wuh,
and 40 on. How can anyone. juAti^y t>tWun% out to i
OA anything but an anti-AocAoLt actf
Some pro-development ranchers resent being made to feel that they
should give up the money they could make from coal to preserve a
neighbor's feelings, sensitivities, and way of life. Secondly,
some who have leased land (primarily from Federal and State agencies
^There are a few newcomers who want to earn enough money to be
able to live here the way the ranchers do, and some people who came
to the area as miners two or three years ago have adopted the local
attitudes. These individuals, however, represent a very small
portion of the newcomers. Other persons are also interested in
preserving the area. In the words of one Informant, "When Easterners
buy places out here, they tend to be more resistant to industrializa-
tion than we old-timers are."
52
-------
Discussion Draft
JIGPRP - 6/74
or the Burlington Northern railroad) are now finding that their
leases are being taken away on short notice. When leases are
withdrawn, competition for replacement land sets in. Ranchers
are highly vulnerable not only to such changes in leasing policies
and practices but also to water contamination or loss of supply
and to the destruction of the highly nutritious, indigenous grasses
by surface mining. Thirdly, their taxes are rising due to condi-
tions beyond their control; they fear a heavy tax burden when the
coal boom is over. "We are paying for coal development," and "We
are paying for our own destruction," were common observations about
the situation. Fourthly, because as'a group they are so highly
specialized in their work and so deeply attached to the land and
committed to their way of live, ranchers find it difficult to adjust
to the changes threatened by coal and related energy developments.
They feel that they have no say in the decisions being made which
so fatefully affect them and that they are powerless to Influence
what is happening. They are uncertain about so many aspects of
what is going on and proposed.
3Most ranchers depend on leased land for grazing because they do
not have enough deeded land to support their livestock.
^Ranchers in eastern Montana are still trying to get clarification
on patents concerning coal. If they had such clarification, they
would not be so vulnerable to the actions of "land grabb»-8" (self-
employed or hired people who reportedly often use questionable
methods to acquire land for coal companies).
53
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
In the face of such ominous and sweeping change, ranchers
stand to lose everything they have and are. They are unprepared
to cope with coal development and hope that the more articulate
among their members can do something to stop it. A few have
emerged as natural leaders, taking it upon themselves to inform
others and to represent them in matters of mutual concern. Some
have become models of resistance to development. In this way they
have shown how to fight it and have revealed it as less than totally
inevitable, but lack of communication has kept many ranchers from
realizing just how much support they have for their views. Thus,
many unnecessarily feel isolated and alone. Being outnumbered by
both businessmen and construction workers, ranchers have the new
status of a persecuted minority and are caught in what appears to be
a losing battle: the nation's alleged need for coal versus the
life-style of a few. In effect, these ranchers are being made to
feel guilty for trying to save their lives.
Established landowners are not the only ones paying big social
and emotional costs for development. Construction workers in many
cases are also paying a high price for their economic benefits.
Reports are that many of the wives sit *around all day and watch
television, eat too much, and get fat; similarly, many husbands
drink and fight too much. Family relationships often leave a great
deal to be desired. Many newcomers are not strongly family oriented
because they have had to leave their families behind or because
frequent moving has precluded getting too involved in extended
54
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
family relationships. There is much frustration, boredom,
desertion, and divorce. Trailers in some cases are overcrowded
or unsanitary. Many newcomers hang on because they want to avoid
returning to marginal employment situations. The willingness to
pay big social costs to obtain big money is what there is in common
between the many business-oriented oil and construction workers and
their counterparts in ranching who are also inordinately concerned
with making money.^ These workers and ranchers tend to be loyal
primarily to themselves, tending, therefore to act like "boomers"
who justify their way of life by belittling those whose views and
traditions are other than their own.
Oil laborers who have remained in Gillette for a few years or
longer appear to be putting down roots and becoming true community
members. They appear to have made a decision to give up the normal
values of the itinerant worker and to "go native." In this respect
they are like the mine workers at Colstrip, who after being on the
job for a year and a half or two began to noticeably "go native";
they clearly identify and associate much more with the locals than
with the new construction people. Both of these cultural convert
^Reference is made here to the typical businessman, who is
strongly inclined to view his work much more as a means to making
money than as an Intrinsically rewarding and self-fulfilling
activity. The typical professional does just the opposite, stressing
life-style much more than economics. For a discussion of this kind
of distinction, see Everett C. Hughes, The Sociological Eye;
Selected Papers (Chicago: Aldine-Atherton, 1971).
55
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
groups anticipate long-term work opportunities and are taking them
and related opportunities to become bona fide members of the "local
community, that is, they are seeking to establish themselves as
locals and are absorbing the local values.
As would be expected, lots of workers are primarily interested
in getting higher wages in order to acquire material possessions.
Most of these are not interested in long-range investments or savings.
Some work in order to be able to take time off to hunt. In short,
work is a means to various ends for most new employees in the study
area, who appear to be largely detached from their jobs and willing
to stay on only so long as the money is more attractive than that
offered by another project. Such an attitude is totally foreign to
most ranchers, especially in Montana where dedication and commitment
to one's work virtually absorbs one's whole life.
The values of most ranchers in Rosebud County incline them to
want to accommodate the coal industrialists. These efforts are
continually rebuffed; ranchers run head on into industrial values
which are based upon conflict models of behavior and to which they
do not subscribe. One informant summed up the situation by
commenting, "Isn't that a terrible way to live, not to be able to
trust anyone?"
The values of ranchers in Campbell County are quite similar
to those in Rosebud, but many of the Wyoming ranchers evidently have
somehow learned to "accommodate" (i.e., to sell or lease land) to
56
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
the industrialists. Whether they are truly accommodating or
merely capitulating is not yet clear.
Attitudes Toward the Environment: One Wyoming County
A study conducted by Cecil L. French, entitled Attitudes of
Johnson County, Wyoming Residents Towards Selected Aspects of
Their Environment, provides some insight into the feelings of
these people towards their natural environment and its possible
utilization. For the study, a random sample of 100 adults was
interviewed, focusing on (1) leisure time pursuits of the residents,
and especially their use of the outdoor recreational facilities
so easily available; (2) the values they held regarding the aes-
thetic worth of their immediate environment and their feelings
regarding its preservation or use at some future time; and (3)
their satisfactions with their present life situation, including
their feelings of social significance, hopes for the future (an
area they feel they have neglected), and intentions concerning
future residence. Although all of the above factors have some
relevance to the impending development postulated for the State of
Wyoming, this analysis is confined primarily to the second one—
values regarding the environment and its preservation and use.
Attitudes Towards the Local Area
A direct question revealed that Johnson County residents considered
their area was one of great beauty (83 percent thought it had "exceptional
beauty"). When they were asked whether the area should be preserved,
conserved, or developed, the overwhelming response (72 percent) was:
"Steps should be taken to preserve it as it is." However, it is
interesting to note that 25 percent thought "The resources
57
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
of forest and mineral should be utilized, even if it meant some
loss in beauty."
Attitudes towards Specific Industries
Attitudes towards specific industries were examined with the
expectations that, since industries varied by the amount of blight
they inflict on an environment, a person's attitude toward a
specific industry would depend on whether he leaned toward preserva-
tion of the environment or toward economic development. Residents
were questioned about the possibility of the growth of three
specific industries in the area—tourism, logging, and strip mining.
A vast majority of the respondents had seen examples of each and
had a clear idea of what was at issue for the area under each type
of development.
Tourism: The people interviewed believed that tourism was the
most acceptable of the three industries. Although tourists often
appear "odd" and at times annoy local residents, they provide, in
addition to the tenderfoot lore, money for the area. Furthermore,
they eventually go home and their pollution can then be cleaned up.
Strip Mining; The next most acceptable industry for the
area was strip mining; however, it must be added that when the
interviews were carried out in 1972, most residents believed that
strip mining would be "over ten years" before any development began.
As is shown by the responses below, there was strong opposition to
strip mining even in 1972:
58
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
"What are your reactions to this form of mining?"
Extremely positive 1
Generally positive 25
Not concerned 15
Generally negative 27
Extremely negative 31
Total 99
Ranchers were the most receptive to strip mining, apparently
because Reynolds Aluminum, the resource owner, had at the time
assured these ranchers an increased supply of water for irrigation.
Furthermore, the search for resources had caused a land boom which
held promise of considerable profit for some of these people. Now
that Reynolds has sold its holdings in Johnson County to Texaco,
it appears that ranchers are not so certain their water interests
will be given high priority. Some now see their way of life
strongly threatened by mining development. What will happen
remains to be seen, but an atmosphere of mistrust seems to be
developing. Some ranchers voice doubt that others will do much
to form a united front. Strip mining is not a popular prospect
with any occupational category, and even the ranchers were divided
in their opinions (10 responses were positive, 3 neutral, and 8
negative).
Logging: Logging, especially clearcut logging, was the most
unpopular of the three industrial activities proposed for Johnson
County. The mountains in the area have recently been subjected
to quite extensive clearcutting, and feelings against it are high.
This attitude could be due in part to the fact that this method
59
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
of timber harvesting was a political issue in 1971, as Senator McGee
of Wyoming was attempting to gain a moratorium on such practices.
Conclusions
Existing theory indicates that the urban, upper middle class
is moat "environmentalist11 oriented. However, the findings of this
study do not support these assumptions. In Johnson County, no
significant differences among the occupational categories were found.
Most residents, regardless of occupation, were Interested in pre-
serving the natural environment. Younger persons tended to hold
these beliefs more strongly than older ones. White collar workers
(as expected) were more organisation minded, in that they were
joiners. The implications are that others may not be represented
in decisionmaking because many persons seeking an expression of
community opinion contact higher status persons and assume they
"speak" for the community. Ranchers in this sample were less pres-
ervation minded than other occupational categories. Because they
attract a great deal of attention in the press, their views may
prevail over those of less expressive groups.
Attitudes of Youth Toward Cost Development
Thusfar, in assessing the potential impact of coal development
on the Northern Great Plains, little attention has been given to
one important group—the young adults about to make personal deci-
sions concerning their future in the labor market and their relation-
ship to the region. Two studies have examined this group: "Western
Korth Dakota High School Senior Profiles," by David Blckel and
60
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Clark Markell, and "Anticipated Energy Resources Development
Impact on High School Youth in Converse County, Wyoming," by
John P. Farber and Charles 6. Newton.
Many of the high school students surveyed have little first-
hand knowledge of coal development. However, the North Dakota
survey indicates that a large percent of them favor coal develop-
ment and feel that new people are good for the State. More
negative attitudes toward coal development were apparent in the
Little Missouri Valley area of southwestern North Dakota than in
areas to the north and east. Students from southwestern North
Dakota were also more inclined to question the value of Immigra-
tion related to energy development and the development of resources
for use outside the State.
Students in Wyoming were not specifically surveyed as to
whether they favored coal development. However, when asked about
potential impact, they predicted changes in life style consistent
with known transitions in "boom-town" situations. Some were
especially concerned that impact might bring about impersonaliza-
tion, fragment or somehow negatively change their current social
and Interpersonal relationships, and force restricted freedom of
movement.
North Dakota students have a strong preference for living on
farms, or in towns the size of Bismarck or Minot. This suggests
that many North Dakota young adults are satisfied with the choice
of lifestyles available in the State, and most of them would be
61
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
willing recruits into the State agricultural industry or a business
or industry in or near larger communities in North Dakota.
The young people in Wyoming appeared to have little knowledge
or awareness of potential job opportunities in energy industries;
however, a significant number of students thought the vocational-
technical aspects of their educational programs were inadequate.
The majority felt that changes should be made to adapt the curriculum
to new energy career opportunities. Survey results in North Dakota
would seem to corroborate this finding. If institutions of higher
learning would develop vocational and technical programs that
realistically meet regional manpower needs, such programs would be
well received as an important alternative by young adults seeking
postsecondary education.
The attitudes of youth as a group would seem to have particular
Importance at this time to local, State, and regional governmental
officials, and to industrial and educational leaders about to make
decisions concerning coal development. A long-term regional problem
has been the exodus of youth from the area. The assumption is often
made that industrial development will provide career opportunities
that will lead to the retention of young adults. Information on
post-high school aspirations of students can clarify the potential
relationship between economic development and the tendency of young
adults to remain in the area. Attitudes of young people toward
careers and training programs and on student receptivity to different
types and lengths of career training can guide the decisions of
educators and major employers.
62
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Communities in Decline; A Case Study
To the people of the Northern Great Plains area, the issue
of declining conmunities is a very real one and one they have had
to face for several decades. * Coal development appears to offer
an alternative. Statistics and projections concerning community
impact of development are being bantered about. Two small North
Dakota towns have been tied to coal mining for a long time.
Tracing their experience may provide insights, not so much into
what might happen if the coal boom were to burst, but the trend
the potential coal boom may reverse.
Columbus and Noonan are two small towns in Burke and Divide
Counties in Northwestern North Dakota where coal and power plant
development have had a significant impact. The region is typical
of the western section of North Dakota. Many of the small towns
that may experience coal development in the coming decades resemble
Columbus and Noonan in structure, population, background, and way
of life. The resources, human and physical, that have been affected
by coal development and decline are the same resources likely to
be impacted by development in other parts of the State.
Lignite coal was instrumental in the development of the
Columbus/Noonan area from the beginning of its settlement during
the early 1900's. Both the region and State enjoyed an agricultural
boom, reaching peak populations in 1930. With the Depression of
the thirties came droughts, and many farmers lost or left their
farms. Since then, a movement toward larger farms has se£ in, and
large farms mean small populations.
63
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Columbus and Noonan did not follow the demographic pattern of
the rest of the State. This area reached peak population in 1960,
with extensive decline from 1960 to 1970. Most of the factors that
caused population decline in the rest of the State were also apparent
in Columbus and Noonan with one major exception—coal mining. Coal
mining was the only nonagricultural basic industry and it helped
offset the population decline as people left the farms. Later, the
coal industry and power plant closings, in all probability, caused
the extensive population declines. Noonan lost 35.5 percent of its
population from 1960 to 1970; Columbus lost 30.8 percent.
The population loss was concentrated in certain age groups.
With the decline in mining operations, most miners and power plant
workers transferred to other locations. Many of the young people
also left the communities. As a result, both towns have been left
with middle to old aged populations. The average head-of-household
in Columbus and Noonan is 55 years old. He is male and has 12 years
of schooling or less; he is married or widowed; and has lived in the
Columbus/Noonan area at least 16 years.
According to the community questionnaire, the major employment
sectors In Columbus and Noonan are farming (44 percent), mining (6
percent), a combination of farming and mining (8 percent), business
(8 percent), and the professions (6 percent). Over half of the women
are housewives. The median family Incomes In terke and Divide
Counties were some $1,100 below the State norm of $7,836 In 1969.
64
-------
Discussion Draft
. NGPRP - 6/74
Unlike many other small towns in North Dakota, the business
communities of Columbus and Noonan continued to boom after the
Depression. Each served an extensive agricultural area and
offered a wide array of goods and services. With the decline in
the coal mining industry came a decline in the business community.
However, it was not a cause and effect relationship; there were
other significant factors. Improvements in the highway network
certainly contributed to this decline; good roads and cars allowed
farmers and small town residents to go to the larger communities
to shop. School bussing had the same effect. When the school
system began its bussing program, parents ceased coming into
town to pick up the children and do the family shopping.
Seven businesses opened or changed ownership in Columbus in
1972. Now, in 1974, the business sectors of both towns show signs
of decline. Noonan is in especially poor condition. Nearly half
of the buildings on Main Street are vacant and decaying. The once-
proud "white city" is old and run down; the stores are old fashioned,
with little modernization. There are a bowling lane, cafe, grocery,
elevator, receiving station of the Crosby Bank, retirement home,
telephone company, grain company, hardware store, railroad depot,
two bars, and two service stations in Noonan. Columbus's business
community is in somewhat better shape. It has a theater, beauty
shop, variety store, supermarket, motel, full-service bank, auto-
mobile dealer, Legion hall, bar, Rural Electric Co-op, laundromat,
Insurance agency, real estate, law office, hardware stores, and an
Implement dealer.
65
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
In Noonan the businesses tend to close. The differences between
the market and trade sectors of the two comnunities are probably ex-
plained by (1) Noonan's proximity to a larger trade center (Crosby),
(2) Columbus's location in Burke County, where shipping rates are lower,
and (3) the fact that the business community in Columbus has made a
major effort to maintain its services.
In earlier times, Columbus and Noonan enjoyed a variety of non-
governmental services. Now these services are quite limited: There
are several volunteer organizations in the two towns; however, most
of them have declining memberships. In 1973, an article appeared in
the local newspaper concerning an organizational meeting for a Noonan
Jaycees group. Nothing came of the meeting, and most of the residents
stated that one circle group (Lions) was enough.
Health care delivery is minimal to non-existent, even though both
communities had doctors at one time, and Noonan maintained a hospital.
Actually, the only available medical service is from the volunteer fire
department. Residents must travel to larger towns such as Crosby,
Bowbells, Estevan, or Mlnot for medical care. The old Noonan hospital
has been converted into a retirement home, which is now under attack
because of new regulations. Under recently Instituted rules, no
nursing care can be offered in this home. The controversy has high
community Interest, but it is unlikely that anything concrete will be
done to retain it.
As for non-governmental services, small towns generally suffer
from a lack of skills, organizations, and institional infrastructures.
66
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
Many of the organizations and activities depend on one person for
their support and motivation. When that person moves or dies, the
activity usually dies with him.
Coal development and decline have had significant Impact on
the municipal governments of Columbus and Noonan. Both communities
expanded facilities and services during the development period.
Now both communities must find ways to maintain these services.
The problem becomes even more acute when the areas are faced with
new State and Federal regulations. The two communities have re-
sponded in different ways to their economic decline. Columbus has
always been considered a forward-looking community. It was one of
the first towns in the area to get municipal sewage and garbage
collection, and is the only one to have all the city streets paved,
with curb and gutters. The list goes on. However, even Columbus
is having trouble meeting new government regulations. The local
ambulance service was recently suspended because it did not meet
State standards. State assistance was offered to aid in up-
grading the service; however, the town did not respond to any of
the inquiries. The town is in the process of complying with the
new regulations, but in the meantime, there is no ambulance service.
Noonan seems to have resigned itself to its fate. For in-
stance, at present it is not in compliance with State regulations
concerning sewage facilities. The residents are aware of the prob-
lem and have some vague plans for correcting it, but do not seem
to think they should have to make the necessary investment.
67
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
Generally, Columbus has fared better than Noonan, due, at least in
part, to its community spirit. However, a number of various other non-
coal related factors affect a community's ability to adjust to decline
in mining operations, such as site, situation, and transportation.
Columbusfs location gives it a larger trade area and lower freight
rates than Noonan.
The future of the two communities is uncertain. Columbus appears
to be making some progress in handling its problems. There seems to
be strong community spirit and some younger people are entering
business in the area. Noonan is another story. In the next 30 years,
Noonan could easily become a coal ghost town.
Can generalizations be made from the experiences of Columbus and
Noonan, or is the area unique? Coal mining has been part of the
Columbus/Noonan area since its early settlement. It started in an
almost natural way as part of the homesteading era; there was little
conflict between agriculture and mining because many individuals en-
gaged in both.
All the «-t«ing companies were North Dakota firms; even the large
corporations began as family or individual operations. Therefore,
throughout most of its history, the mining industry was not viewed as
an interloper or Intruder, but as an Integral part of the region.
Coal companies entering the area in the coming decades may not enloy
the same propitious attitude.
In spite of the difference in situation, and it is a substantial
one, the picture of Columbus and Noonan is one from which we can learn
much. The "dying" rural community, with its attendant social problems,
68
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
is not a new phenomenon; there are many examples in the Great
Plains, which have developed as people have left the farms for the
cities. This out-migration has been largely concentrated in the
younger age groups, leaving towns with middle to old-age popula-
tions.
Coal development can offer an alternative to these small towns.
However, we cannot be sure that the new settlement patterns will
revitalize all of the declining communities. Furthermore, many
questions will remain unanswered with regard to development and
subsequent decline.
Further Research Needs
The predictions made by the urbanization typology, and the
unanswered questions raised by the case studies of three impact
communities and the study communities.in decline, necessitate listing
several areas requiring further research. In general, there is a
need to directly test and refine the typology by empirical studies
for predictive use in the Northern Great Plains. There are also
several specific questions:
1. Although the ethnographic research methodology
used by Gold was very useful for studying natural
communities, it was less useful when studying areas
like the trailer parks in Colstrip, Montana, which
appear to be merely common areas of residence and
not neighborhoods or developing social systems.
Residents of these "noncommunities" need to be
69
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
sampled and their feelings elicited about the
social effects of coal development on the Northern
Great Plains.
2. Research by Gold has only scratched the surface
of one of the first social organizations to be
affected by industrial development—the schools.
The needs for additional school facilities have
been predicted elsewhere in this report, but the
effects that result from construction workers'
children being put in and out of schools at all
times during the year needs to be assessed.
3. There is a need to look closely at what happens to
such "innocent victims" of development as the
elderly and others whose incomes will not
significantly increase with coal development,
but who will nonetheless feel the effect of boom
town prices. Research done by Nellis in Hanna,
Wyoming, has shown that property taxes rose
drastically when that community became a boom
town. Other coal impact communities in Wyoming,
Montana, and North Dakota should be studied to
determine how energy development affects the
buying power of those on Social Security or
aid for dependent children programs.
70
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/7A
'+• Research by Bowes (1974) in the Knife River Basin
of western North Dakota indicated fear of the
unknown among local people about how coal develop-
ment will affect them. They ask what kinds of new
businesses and entertainment establishments will
come with the coal construction boom. They also
want to know whether coal development will cause
a "boom and bust" situation, resulting in rapid
out-migration after the coal seams play out.
Mercer and Oliver Counties, North Dakota, already
have several coal "ghost towns" which began,
prospered, and disappeared in a 30-year period
from 1900-1930. The Lemmerman case study (1974)
has documented what happened to two other North
Dakota communities when coal mining activity
declined. Longitudinal studies need to be
conducted in communities like Center, North
Dakota, or Ashland, Montana, to determine the
long-term effects of rapid industrial development
on communities that depend on an agricultural
economy.
5. There is a need to determine more precisely
whether there are differing attitudes toward coal
development among ranchers in Montana, Wyoming, and
71
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
North Dakota. Gold's conclusion is that there are
differences; conventional attitude scaling tech-
niques would help quantify these findings.
6. More research is needed to determine the attitudes
of Northern Great Plains residents toward the
effect coal development will have on the natural
environment. Almost all Johnson County, Wyoming,
residents sampled in a study by French (1974),
for example, tended to favor preservation of the
natural environment, regardless of their occupa-
tions. They seem to prefer extractive industrial
development sueh as coal mining or logging only as
a balance between earning enough income to stay
in Johnson County and being forced to move because
of declining employment opportunities. The French
study should be replicated in other counties in
the Northern Great Plains.
7. Very little is known about the effect that energy
development will have on income distribution. It
can be recognized that, with rapid, localized
growth and its attendant inflation, those in
fixed incomes and those who cannot move from the
low-paying to the high-paying sectors for whatever
reasons, will be adversely affected in terms of
their real income. It should be stressed that
72
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
without adequate data on income distribution and accurate
localized price deflators, it is virtually impossible to say
anything definitive about income aspects of general welfare.
8. 8. The effects of alternative patterns of settlement upon social
and political structure and systems needs analysis. This includes
the effects and implications of such alternatives upon existing
systems.
73
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
IV. EFFECTS ON INDIANS
This section of the summary report discusses the social and
economic effects that coal development will have on Indian (also
known as Native American) land and people in the Northern Great
Plains. It is based on the work group supporting document, "Indians
in the Northern Great Plains," prepared by the Bureau of Indian
Affairs* Planning Support Group at Billings, Montana. It is
supplemented by correspondence and testimony contributed by the
Northern Cheyenne Research Project, and the Northern Cheyenne
Landowners Association, both from Lame Deer, Montana.
The Environmental Impact Statement was also consulted, parti-
cularly the sections summarizing Public Hearings and Written Comments.
This statement was prepared by the Bureau of Indian Affairs as part
of the proposal by Westmoreland Resources to mine coal on the ceded
area near the Crow Indian Reservation in Montana. Other groups,
including University professionals and tribal planners, are also
conducting studies on the effects of coal development on Indian
people and lands in the Northern Great Plains; however, the results
of these studies are not discussed in this report.
The Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) report gives a demographic
profile of all Indian reservations in the Northern Great Plains, but
it does not comprise a total study of the Impacts of coal development
on each reservation. Time limitations did not permit an in-depth
study of each tribe that has land underlain by coal deposits.
75
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Overview
The Northern Great Plains study area encompasses all or parts
of 5 States and 23 Indian reservations. These reservations contain
Indian-owned land ranging from one or two townships to millions of
acres, and have Indian populations ranging from a few hundred to
over 11,000. They contain over 13 million acres of land, covering
more than 20,000 square miles, an area considerably larger than
many States. They provide a resource base for over 80,000 tribal
members.
There is a great deal of institutional complexity regarding the
Native Americans in relation to the rest of society in the Northern
Great Plains. Indian reservations are independent political entities,
each having its own political structures and legal codes. The States
in which they are located have little if any jurisdiction within the
reservation boundaries. The reservations represent a great diversity
of sub-ethnic groups, and differ significantly in their approach to
socio-economic situations. They have historically been socio-economic
as well as geographic islands in a region already isolated by great
distances.
Services, normally the responsibility of local or State govern-
ment in a non-Indian community, are performed in a cooperative effort
between the various tribes, the BIA, and other Federal and State
agencies. This includes a trust responsibility in the performance
or assistance in the development, use, control, and protection of
Indian lands and land-related resources as well as t.ne construction,
76
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
maintenance, and operation of irrigation systems and the develop-
ment of recreational services and areas. The provision of socio-
economic services such as educational, health, and credit facilities
are derived from BIA and the Public Health Service, as well as from
standard government and private sources.
The Indian population in this five-State area has been increas-
ing at a significantly faster rate during the past decade than the
total population. Between 1960 and 1970, there was a measurable
increase in Indian population on all the reservations, while the
total population of South and North Dakota declined slightly.
Montana and Wyoming experienced only a modest increase.
On some reservations, over half of the Indian land is owned by
the tribal entity. On others, the very large majority is in indi-
vidual Indian allotments. The amount of Indian-owned lands de-
creased steadily during the first 65 years of this century. This
occurred through cession to the Federal Government or by sale to
non-Indian owners. During the past 3 decades, several tribes on
the Missouri River have lost considerable amounts of land through
eminent domain to large main-stem reservoirs. This erosion of land-
ownership has been minimized in recent years, and most of the tribes
are now taking specific steps to consolidate ownership, to acquire
key tracts of land, and to minimize further land attrition by
purchasing individual allotments that otherwise would be sold to
non-Indians.
77
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
The land on the Indian reservations ranges from high forested
mountain areas on the Crow to semlarid grassland typified by several
South Dakota reservations, as well as fertile irrigated river bottom
valleys. Like non-Indian lands, some areas are underlain by the
Fort Union Formation, which contains huge coal reserves. Special
attention is being given to the development potential and juris-
dictional aspects of the Indian water and other mineral resources
in the Northern Great Plains Region. The specific identification
and quantification of these resources and rights is a major effort
of the Native American Natural Resources Federation of the Northern
Great Plains, and the result of their effort will be included as an
input into the Northern Great Plains Resources Program report.
The Six Most Affected Reservations
Table 10 shows the land area and population of the six reserva-
tions in Montana and the Dakotas that will feel the major social and
economic impact from coal development. These six reservations serve
as home for about 25,000 Indians and encompass over 5.6 million
acres of trust land, an area larger than New Jersey. About the same
acreage of coal rights lie partly within and partly outside'the
reservations. These reserves probably amount to tens of billions
of tons.
Population
All six reservations have experienced a significant population
increase in the last 10 years (Table 11). The Indian population
increase contrasts sharply with the overall population changes that
occurred in the States where the six reservations are located (see
Table 1). ;
78
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 10--Indian land and residents, by reservation, 1973
Reservation
Crow
Fort Peck
Northern Cheyenne
Fort Bert hold
Standing Rock
Cheyenne River
Total
Indian-owned
State land (acres) I/
Montana
Montana
Montana
North Dakota
N. Dak., S.Dak.
South Dakota
1,562,077
961,857
434,420
420,718
846,684
1.1*05,178
5,630,93^
Indian resident
population
4,334
6,202
2,926
2,775
4,868
4,335
25,4140
I/ Acres include lands both on and off the reservation.
Source: Bureau of Indian Affairs (1974).
Age
The reservation residents are quite young; nearly half of them
are under 16 and nearly two-thirds are under 25 years of age. Sepa-
rate analysis of the 1970 census shows that about 40 percent of the
population in both Montana and South Dakota were under 19 years of
age. The Indian population of the six reservations in this category
vary from 53 percent on the Crow Reservation to about 62 percent on
the Fort Peck Reservation.
The high percentage of the Indian population in the younger
age groups, compared to the relatively low populations in the group
45 years and older, indicates a considerable potential for an in-
creased Indian labor force. It also contributes to a high degree of
dependency, with over half of the total population being either
under 16 years of age or over 65 years of age.
79
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 11—Indian population change, 1963-73
Population
Crow
Fort Peck
Northern Cheyenne
Cheyenne River
Fort Berthold
Standing Rock
Total
1963
3,678
3,390
2,166
3,421
2,408
4,300
19,363
1973
4,334
6,202
2,926
4,335
2,775
4.868
25,440
Percent increase
17.8
82.9
35.1
26.7
15.2
13.2
31.4
Source: Bureau of Indian Affairs (1974).
Labor Force and Employment
All six reservations have higher unemployment rates than the
States where they are located. The 1970 unemployment rates reported
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ranged from 11.6 percent for the
Crow to 29.1 percent for Standing Rock. Comparable rates for Montana
were 6.3 percent; for North Dakota, 4.6 percent; and for South Dakota,
3.3 percent (Table 12).
Current Indian employment is in agriculture, government, and
tourism. The Northern Cheyenne also have a significant number of
people employed in logging and milling. These skills provide the only
nucleus for developing the Indian manpower for employment in the coal-
related industries. If the Indian labor force wants to be employed
in coal industries, many of them will need to leam new skills. This
assumes that members of the Indian labor force will actually seek
employment in coal industries. The high unemployment rates on the
reservations indicate that they would.
80
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 12—Unemployment rates: North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana,
compared to Indian reservations within their boundaries, 1970
Area Percent unemployment
Reservations
Crow (Montana) 11.6
Fort Peck (Montana) 25.7
Northern Cheyenne (Montana) 11.1
Cheyenne River (South Dakota) 18.4
Standing Rock (North Dakota-South Dakota) 29.1
Fort Berthold (North Dakota) I/
States
Montana 5.5
North Dakota '4.6
South Dakota 3.3
\J Data not available.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
However, many Indians are concerned about the adverse social and
economic changes that coal development will bring. It is possible
that some Indians may choose not to work in the strip mines and power
and gasification plants.
The Indian Family and Income
On the six reservations, Indian family size is larger, family
income is lower, and a greater percentage of Indian families are in
poverty than are found in the population standard of the six States
where they are located, or in the U.S. population (Table 13).
These large families and low incomes are reflected in the per-
centage of the families having an income below the poverty level.
81
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
More than 57 percent of the Standing Rock families and over 39 percent
of the Crow families are below the poverty level, compared with 10
percent for the country as a whole.
Table 13—Family size and income: Indians compared to total population
Area
Reservations :
Crow
Fort Peck
Northern Cheyenne
Cheyenne River
Fort Bert ho Id
Standing Rock
States:
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
U.S. (all families)
Average
family size
Persons
6.60
6.54
5.37
5.99
6.10
5.38
3.55
3.72
3.66
3.62
Median
family income
Dollars
5,260
5,136
5,270
3,857
4,800
3,667
7,494
7,838
8,512
9,433
Families with
incomes below
oovertv level i'
Percent
40.0
46.7
39.8
54.8
45.3
58.3
10.4
12.4
14.8
10.7
I/ 1969 average poverty threshold for a nonfarm family of four headed
by & male = $3,745.
Source: 1970 Census.
Educational Levels
Educational levels on the six reservations are significantly
lower than those for the total populations of the States in which
these reservations lie. A brief comparison from U.S. Census data
between the Crow and Standing Rock reservations illustrates this
point.
82
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
The median educational level of Crow people over 25 years of age
is 9.4 years, almost 3 years less than the 12.3 years for all Montanans
over 25. For the Standing Rock people of the same age group, the level
is 9.7 years; for South Dakota, 12.1 years.
Anticipated Reservation Coal Development
The Standing Rock and the Cheyenne River reservations have com-
bined coal reserves estimated at some 100 million tons. However,
commercial exploitation is considered marginal, and mining companies
have thus far shown little serious interest in development.
Fort Berthold Reservation is reported to have between 4 and 20
billion tons of measured and indicated lignite reserves, much of which
is commercially recoverable under present technology. However, members
of the three affiliated tribes have expressed great concern about the
cultural and environmental issues accompanying coal development and
have imposed an indefinite moratorium on leasing and other mineral
activity.
The Fort Peck Reservation in eastern Montana has strippable lignite
reserves estimated at several billion tons. However, coal developers
have shown little interest in them, and no leasing or prospecting
activities are currently underway.
The Northern Cheyenne Reservation also has huge coal reserves,
estimated at excess of 5 billion tons in strippable deposits. However,
tribal leaders and members are presently discouraging any development
activity until the social and environmental effects of coal develop-
ment are more fully understood. Testimony presented by the Northern
83
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Cheyenne Landowners Association at hearings regarding coal development
conducted by U.S. Senator Lee Metcalf from Montana in April 1974
illustrates their concern:
The imminence of strip mining on the Northern Cheyenne
Indian Reservation is bringing about a questionable future
for the resources and Indian lands as well as the lives of
the people exposed to it. The magnitude, nature, and rapidity
with which this development will be brought upon the Cheyenne
can only be felt as modern day genocide.
The Crow Reservation is the only one of the six where coal develop-
ment is in progress. Therefore, impact analysis for this study concen-
trated principally on the effects of coal development on the Crow
peoples. It should be pointed out that although the Crow have initiated
contractual agreements with mining Interests to extract coal from ceded
lands adjacent to their reservation, there is diversity of opinion among
members of the tribe as to the desirability of coal development on the
reservation. Public hearings held at the Crow Agency, Montana, in
November 1973, produced testimony by tribal members both for and
against coal development.
Implications of Crow Development
Arrangements have already been made with Westmoreland Resources
to mine at least 77 million tons of Crow-owned coal on Sarpy Creek in
the Ceded Area which lies Immediately north of the present boundaries
of the Crow Reservation. A final environmental impact statement re-
lating to that mining operation has been prepared and filed.
In addition, the Crows have either prospecting permits or leases
with American Metals Climax Company, Gulf Minerals Resources Company,
84-
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Peabody Coal Company, and Shell Oil Company. Explorations by these
companies indicate a total of 4 to 4.5 billion tons of coal considered
strippable under present economic and technical levels.
Although the Crow leadership is on record as encouraging coal
development (see, for example, written testimony from David Stewart,
Crow Tribal Chairman, contained in the Westmoreland Environmental
Impact Statement), the industrializing of the Crow economy raises
numerous social and economic questions. The BIA-authored Supporting
Document, on which this summary is based, has projected significant
employment opportunities in coal-related Industries on or adjacent
to the Crow Reservation. If only two or three strip mines are
operated (a projected "low level" of development) the work force
would conceivably be mostly Indians, since they are assured preferen-
tial hiring and assuming they seek work in the mines. However, a "high
level" of development (projected by the BIA to mean five or six strip
mines producing 90 million tons of coal annually, plus two gasification
plants, one liquification plant, and supporting power plants) will re-
quire very high non-Indian employment. This implies the possibility
that the Indians might become a minority on their own reservation
unless specific residential controls are exercised. The Crows have
been assured preferential hiring treatment in the coal industry, but
history has shown that even written assurances are not necessarily
enough to prevent discrimination against a minority group.
85
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Earlier, the point was made that Indian reservations are
jurisdictional entities. Yet there are numerous gray areas
affecting such vital processes as education, law enforcement, and
public assistance. Coal development on or adjacent to the Crow
Reservation may tend to make these gray areas grayer.
Further Research
A host of questions have not been answered in this report, but
must be addressed before the full impact of coal development on the
Crow Reservation can be estimated:
i. How will the schools and the teachers be provided for
the expanding population?
2. What controls will the Crow exercise in the development
of residential and commercial facilities, particularly
by non-Indians?
3. Can medical, social, and other services for this massive
population increase be provided?
4. What effect will the high paying coal industry jobs
have on the resident and nonresident Crow, especially
those on fixed incomes?
5. Will the present institutional structure be adequate to
cope with the faster pace of governing a more highly
populated area? What modifications may be required?
6. Of what significance is the possible destruction or de-
gradation of historical archeological sites and places of
aesthetic value that strip mining will inevitably bring?
How can this degradation be minimized?
86
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
7. What will be the long-term effects of increased
intercultural mixing on the urbanizing process on future
Indian and non-Indian cultures?
In more general terms, a detailed analysis of each Indian reserva-
tion is needed, in even greater scope than this study provides, if
planners' efforts to meaningfully Involve the Indian people In coal
related work is to be successful. Analysis of the six Indian reserva-
tions with respect to their attitudes, job training, motivational
levels, feelings on commuting, among other factors, would be bene-
ficial in dealing with the problems associated with the Indian nations.
Inferences
The development of substantial coal mining and associated industries
on the reservations will have a profound effect on all residents.
Where massive development is expected, as is projected on the
Crow Reservation, significant socio-economic changes are anticipated,
including:
(1) Increased employment opportunities for both Indians and
non-Indians
(2) Significantly Increased incomes to Indian people
(3) A substantial Increase in non-Indian population levels
(4) Increased need for social services
(5) Substantial changes in community institutions and values
The degree of Impact of any development on a given reservation
and/or region depends on several considerations:
(1) The complexity, scale, and size of the development
(2) The time span involved in the development
87
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
(3) The manpower requirements
(4) The efficacy of controls placed on mining and community
development
(5) The adaptability of the reservation* s institutions to the
changing society
In attempting to isolate the impact on Indian reservations, it
is Important to remember that they cannot be considered as develop-
mental islands, as they have been historically. Very intensive and
extensive coal development will be taking place in areas on or
immediately adjacent to reservations. These adjacent developments
will compete with the reservation for manpower, housing, public
services, and other facilities. For instance, the massive coal
development planned and underway in the areas immediately adjacent
to the Crow Reservation, such as the Decker-Birney and Colstrlp areas,
will tend to magnify the impact on the Crow Reservation because of
their close proximity and Intense competition for services.
The rate or velocity of development will affect the capacity of
the reservation's institutions to adapt to its changing needs and
aspirations. The reservation*s capacity to effectively react to
development demands will be determined, to a large degree, by the
time and pressures involved. High velocity development will severely
test the tribal council's ability to govern and direct development of
their resource base.
The adaptability of the reservation's institutions to changes
brought about by development is probably the most critical factor to
88
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/7A
orderly and beneficial development. The ability of these institutions
to conceive, plan, and implement programs will be the major mitigating
force against environmental and social disbenefits.
A development plan for the reservation that both supplements
and complements the larger regional plan, while adequately repre-
senting local interest, is central to initiating effective controls.
Finally, effective implementation of such a plan is a test of a plan's
adequacy. It is toward this planning process that reservations must
look to make orderly coal development a working reality.
Note Northern Cheyenne minority report in Appendix.
89
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
V. EFFECTS ON GOVERNMENTS*
Population growth resulting from coal development in the
Northern Great Plains Region will unquestionably create increased
demands for governmental as well as non-governmental services. The
demand for increased services and the ability of the social system
to provide them is an important consideration when discussing .rapid
population growth. Certain communities and counties as well as
States are better equipped than others to handle these demands. In
the Northern Great Plains Region, three States will be most heavily
impacted by coal development. Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming
will feel the brunt of rapid development. Nebraska and South Dakota
will feel the effects to a much lesser degree. Principal and pro-
found impact will occur in the counties of Montana, North Dakota,
and Wyoming that are underlain by the coal deposits of the Fort
Union and Powder River Formations. Six counties were surveyed and
analyzed in hopes of determining their capability to handle rapid
development. They are Big Horn and Rosebud in Montana; Mercer and
Oliver in North Dakota; and Campbell and Sheridan in Wyoming.**
* This chapter is based on two principal studies: "The Antici-
pated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public Services, Costs,
and Revenues in Six Selected Counties'* prepared by the Bureau of
Reclamation, Billings, Montana, and the Center for Interdisciplinary
Studies, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana; and a report
entitled "Governmental Programs, Resources and Regulatory Powers
Available to Assist Localities During Coal Development" prepared
by James P. Twomey, with assistance from Peter G. Kuh. Additional
information was gleaned from "State Land Use Planning Reconsidered,"
developed by George Nez and Douglas L. Mutter of the Regional
Planning Council of the Federation of Rocky Mountain States. Other
sources were consulted for technical data.
** Oliver County will be relatively unaffected compared to the
other counties.
91
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
These counties differ In their preparedness to handle the projected
population growth, but they all have problems. In order to evaluate
the region*s capability to handle these problems, a brief look at
the sources of revenue and the services which must be provided Is
necessary.
Sources of State Revenues
The ability of an area to provide the required or desired
services depends on the ability of the various levels of government
to secure the necessary revenues to finance the programs. In this
respect, It Is essential that the funds be available when needed
In order to prevent development lags. Montana, North Dakota,
and Wyoming derive their revenues from a wide variety of sources
(Table 14). Generally, the funds raised through these taxes go to
the State and then are reapportioned back to the counties and other
governmental subdivisions. The reapportionment rate varies with
the tax and with the individual State.
Table 14—Tax levies affected by coal development, by State
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
Strip coal mine license
State personal income
Electric energy
Corporation license
Property
Resource indemnity
State corporate Income
State personal income
Business and corporation
privilege
Sales
Property
Severance
Sales
Conservation
Property
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974),
92
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Revenues from Federal assistance programs contribute a sizable
portion to the overall State budgets* This income is received in
many forms: revenue sharing, specific project grants, and leasing
and royalty revenues from federally owned lands, including coal
lands. Some of the revenues go directly to the State for distri-
bution; others go to other governmental subdivisions and to
individuals.
Revenues from coal royalities were estimated for each of the
scenarios and time frames, baaed on the projected mining require-
ments. As Table 15 shows, the amount of revenue that may be
expected from this source is substantial. These revenues were
estimated on the basis of a State and Federal royalty rate of
$0.25 per ton; it was assumed that all royalty rates will increase.
The amount of Federal royalty shown is net of the 37.5 percent
returned to the State's school fund. The State's share (37.5
percent) has been included in the State values.
As development of coal takes place, revenues received by the
State will increase. However, the tax base increase will lag be-
hind the service needs.
Sources of Local Revenues
Rapid development and population growth will create regional
problems because many localities across a wide area may be simi-
larly affected. But theae are really local problems; as the major
burden and impact will fall on the local level. Local governments
have a smaller variety of revenue sources from which to draw than
do the States. In many instances, local governments are junior
93
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRF 6/74
Table 15—Coal, royalty estimates, State and Federal, for selected counties
by scenario
($1,000)
County, State
1980
State
Federal
1985
State
Federal
2000
State
Federal
Scenario I
Mercer, M.D.
Oliver, N.D.
NORTH DAKOTA
Big Horn, Mt.
Rosebud, Mt.
MONTANA
Campbell, Wyo.
Sheridan, Wyo.
WYOMING
385
168
701
1,666
1,700
3,366
2,472
194
3,172
275
112
499
1,359
1,375
2,734
3,703
31
3,828
568
210
926
1,666
2,087
3,753
2,769
388
3,663
412
150
674
1,359
1,688
3,047
4,156
62
4,312
770
210
1,205
3,181
2,456
6,456
3,459
388
4,353
550
150
875
2,094
1,969
4,344
5,141
62
5,297
Scenario II
Mercer, N.D.
Oliver, N.D.
NORTH DAKOTA
Big Horn, Mt.
Rosebud, Mt.
MONTANA
Campbell, Wyo.
Sheridan, Wyo.
WYOMING
385
168
701
2,531
1,894
4,425
3,056
194
3,756
275
112
499
2,469
1,531
4,000
4,594
31
o,719
568
210
1,046
4,500
3,531
8,031
4,778
388
6,904
412
150
774
4,375
2,844
7,219
7,172
62
7,546
790
420
2,672
6,328
5,575
14,503
6,147
2,131
14,665
550
300
2,088
6,172
4,500
11,547
9,203
344
15,485
Scenario III
Mercer, N.D.
Oliver, N.D.
NORTH DAKOTA
Big Horn, Mt.
Rosebud, Mt.
MONTANA
Campbell, Wyo.
Sheridan, Wyo.
WYOMING
1,085
168
1,401
3,330
2,666
6,046
3,056
194
3,756
775
112
999
3.330
2,144
5,444
4,594
31
4,719
1,618
210
2,668
7,030
7,170
15,920
10,034
2,325
15,768
1,162
150
2,012
6,830
5,780
13,390
15,016
375
16,032
2,520
630
4,612
17,670
12,000
49,570
25,191
6,200
33,908
1,800
450
3,488
17,210
9,675
33,135
37,734
1,000
41,062
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974).
94
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
partners in the redistribution of tax receipts derived from their
areas. An example of this is the Montana Strip Coal Mine License.
The tax is levied at a per ton rate, based on coal with a specified
Bill's (British Thermal Units). The county general fund receives
3 cents per ton from this tax; the remainder goes to the State
general fund.
Generally, taxes levied on a statewide basis are distributed
in a specific formula prescribed by law. For example, the property
tax in North Dakota is an ad valorem tax collected by local govern-
ments. Revenues raised from the property tax are divided between
the county fund, the State general fund, and the school fund (Table 16)
Sales taxes are also distributed according to a prescribed formula.
Wyoming levies a 3 percent sales tax on all purchases in which sale
and delivery are completed in Wyoming. Five-sixths of the tax goes
to the State general fund; one-sixth is distributed to the cities,
towns, and counties, on the basis of population. Local governments
are also 'the beneficiaries of various Federal and State programs,
ranging from revenue sharing to project-specific grants. As is the
case with State governments, certain counties and communities
are recipients (but to a lesser degree) of gifts from various
foundations and citizens.
There is always a considerable lag in the distribution of
revenue to local governments. For this reason, rapid population
growth will present more difficult public service delivery problems
95
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
for the local government than for the State« The distribution of
revenue to the localities by the States and possibly the Federal
Government will determine to a major degree the extent to which
needed services are providedv as well as the timing of these
Table 16—Percentage distribution of property taxes in selected
Northern Great Plains counties, 1974
Local State State
County County school General Medical Other
Fund Fund Fund Center
North Dakota:
Oliver 52 47 1 —
Mercer 51 48 — 1
Montana:
Big Horn 28 64 8
Rosebud 36 59 5
Wyoming:
Campbell 17 72 — — 11
Sheridan 17 72 — — 11
Not applicable.
Source: Bureau of Reclamation
Because of the complexity of tax structures, only a cursory
look at the revenue issue has been possible. To aid localities
impacted by coal development, State and Federal programs and legis-
lation should be considered and enacted which would alleviate some
of the revenue problems that will arise. This will enable local
governments to finance the needed service programs before the strain
on existing services becomes critical.
96
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Service Requirements and Needs
The need for additional and expanded social services must be
given careful and immediate consideration. The existing revenue-
generating capabilities of the localities in the impact areas will,
in some instances, fall far below the cost of the needed services*
Governments will need additional and timely receipt of revenue in
order to provide the social services, such as education, highways,
and health care, that will be required during the rapid development
periods. Generally,,most of the required services are present in
varying degree throughout the region. These services are funded at
different levels (Table 17). Two categories, education and high-
ways, receive the lion's share of State and local government
expenditures. Service needs and the ability to fulfill them vary
from area to area. Generally, in areas where the population is too
small to support all needed services, they have been provided
regionally.
Local Planning Needs
Many variables affect final decisions on how to deal with
service needs arising from coal-related population growth. Many
of these decisions can be properly considered and dealt with only
at the local and county level. Regional coordination will be
necessary, but because of the localized pattern of expected growth,
most of the difficult work will fall on county and municipal units
of government.
The capacity of planning bodies in all of the counties and
localities will need to be increased substantially to enable staged
97
-------
Table 17—Direct general expenditures of State and local governments per capita, by State
(1970 dollars)
State Total
Montana 675 269 169 49 28 160
North Dakota 657 286 128 46 24 173
Wyoming 876 361 224 36 67 188
I/ Includes police protection, fire protection, natural resources, sanitation, recreational
facilities, financial administration, general control, and interest on general debt, as well as
miscellaneous lesser functions.
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974).
|2
M 2
. §
£
Ot O
->.3
2o
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
development of both effective social service units and related
conprehensive land use plans. The need is increased greatly be-
cause of the rapid rate of growth. In spite of opposition to
anticipated restrictions on individual freedoms, people seem to
be recognizing that only through effective planning can orderly
patterns of growth be maintained and the broad range of human needs
be met. As a result of this study, it is recommended that all
counties and towns expecting to experience population growth from
coal development create citizen groups to study the problems
likely to result. Further, the counties and the larger towns should
seek funds, or be provided with funds, to enable employment of both
full-time planners and short-term consultants. Once these steps
have been taken, planning boards and planners from all units of
government will probably find it helpful to set up procedures for
sharing experiences and consulting on common problems. Local
planning activities should not replace State and regional planning;
but, during times of highly localized population boom, resources
and energies have to be concentrated where the difficulties are.
During times of rapid population growth, emphasis is placed on
the value of qualified, full-time personnel to prepare and help
Implement plans* Part-time nonprofessional citizens, however con-
cerned, do not have the technical capability needed to develop plans
for handling the expected growth in the localities studied. However,
the input of these citizens as participants on planning boards is
essential. They provide the preliminary understanding and balance
of local values that is necessary before plans can be drawn.
99
-------
Discussion Draft
HCPRP - 6/74
Full-time professional personnel are also recommended as a mei
of providing continuity in. Implementation that cannot usually be
provided by consulting firms.
The creation of viable planning organizations is a matter of
highest priority in all the counties surveyed. Although there are
planning boards in some of the counties, they do not have the staff
capability necessary to deal with problems of greatly increased
population growth. Since local planning bodies (working together
with local elected officials) are believed to have a central role
to play in refining community priorities and developing plans, the
Center for Interdisciplinary Studies and the Bureau of Reclamation
consider that the suggestions contained In their preliminary survey
should be simply advisory. They regard their findings as a seed
from which local planning activities may grow. Under restraint of
this intent, the following structural changes in local and county
Stream'* -t«H«g of County and Local Governments
The first recommendation arises from the conclusion that local
and county governments are structurally unprepared to deal with the
problems ryp*rr*4 to result from coal development. Wyoming has
recently passed the Joint Powers Act that provides a mechanism for
cities, cmmtif*, and other political subdivisions to provide public
services on a joint basis. The intent of this legislation is to
provide a mechanism for a more effective delivery of public services
at the local level. In Montana, the local governmental option
100
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
process now being set in motion should enable the State's counties
and towns to make the necessary changes. In the other States,
special State legislation will be required.
As a means of providing an effective mechanism, it is recom-
mended that these units of government be given greater autonomous
legislative authority (independent of specific authorization from
the State legislature) and greater authority over county adminis-
trative procedures. Suggesting that fragmentation of county ad-
ministration needs to be reduced and the chain of i immiiinil clarified,
the report proposes that administrative officials (including
sheriffs) be appointed by the county commissioners, rather than
elected independently. Through this change, the county commission-
ers may be given the authority to direct and coordinate many county
govfirimwmal activities and to mobilize county personnel and
resources according to the priorities- they establish. Also, as a
result of this change, the commissioners will be more directly
accountable (Bureau of Reclamation, 1974).
At the local level, several of the towns that are likely to
experience substantial population impact may also feel the need to
change their organizational structures (see Figure 4 showing changes
made in Rock Springs, Wyoming). Further, towns that
cut cent ly are unable to support a full-time mayor may find It
necessary to seek funds so that the mayor can devote full time to
direct!mg the activities relaced to the increased amount of city
101
-------
FIGURE 4 - Possible Revision of Local Government
(as implemented in Rock Springi. Wyoming)
Previous Pattern of Municipal Organization in Rock Springs
• KM
MAYOR AND
art COUNOL
CLERK
TMEAS
LICENSES
BUDGET
HEALTH
TREAT PL.
HEALTH
OFFICER
POLICE
PATROL
COURT
FIRE
ENG*
BLD&IM
PLANNUK
L
STREETS
ALLEYS
PARKS
REC CEM
COMMISSIONS
BOARDS AND
ACCNOES
rr ATTOM
AIRFORT
BOARD
URBAN RENEWAL
ftHOUSIMC BO
•OARO OF
ADJUSTMENTS
aOAJIO OF
APPEALS
BELT ROUTE
NTTEE
TRANaPORTATKM
RECREATION
BOARD
FIRE CIVIL
SERVICE
POLICE CIVIL
SERVICE
LIBRARY
BOARD
CEMETERY
UTTEE
OTI2EM AOV
OOMWrrEE
TECHMCAL
•rm
Newly Adopted Format of Municipal Organization in Rock Springs
PATROL
METERS
CONTROL
OMTT
crviL
SERVICE
102
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRF - 6/74
To improve coordination and the accessibility and public
visibility of governmental operations and service agencies, the
Bureau of Reclamation (1974) study recommends that counties con-
sider the creation of Governmental Service Centers in the county
seat. These centers would house offices of all local governmental
service agencies, as veil as the administrative units of both county
government and local government. This suggestion is made to enable
the local governments to deal more effectively with the problems
that seem likely to result from extremely rapid population influx,
particularly the dramatic "boom and bust" pressures that will occur
during plant construction. Related to this is the need to Improve
governmental services during times of growth and turmoil to compen-
sate for a possible breakdown in the capability of more informal
nongovernmental services. However, the provision of unified services
in an easily accessible central location is not expected to totally
supplant the need for field stations and home visits. If the fabric
of community is to be maintained, the service needs of the resi-
dents, the communities, and short-term construction personnel, who
may be living in outlying temporary trailer communities; must be
met. The needs of these groups will continue to require traveling
service providers. However, the needs of large camps of short-term
construction workers might be met through the use of temporary
trailer-housed service centers, capable of moving with the con-
struction peaks from one location to another.
103
-------
Discussion Draff
NGPRP - o/74
Health Care
Health care and hospital services will need Improvements to
handle expected population growth under any level of development.
In five of the six counties surveyed, more people were concerned
about the shortage of physicians than any other service need. The
Northern Great Plains region is noticeably deficient in the number
of physicians per 100,000 inhabitants (Table 18). Only two uni-
versities in the five-State area have medical schools, and both
are located in Omaha, Nebraska, many miles from the expected areas
of impact* It is necessary to recruit heavily outside the region
to secure physicians. Thus far, the size of the counties' popula-
tion base has been a significant handicap in attracting, maintaining
and expanding health service facilities and personnel.
The major difficulty affecting health care in every surveyed
county except Sheridan County was the insufficient supply of
physicians and other health care personnel. Either because of
lack of confidence in local physicians or because of inability to
get appointments, local residents in most of the studied counties
frequently travel elsewhere for medical treatment. Only the city
*
of Sheridan, with its pleasant environment and proximity to recre-
ation areas, seems to attract many physicians.
In the absence of a widely dispersed supply of qualified phy-
sicians, county ambulance service takes on more critical importance.
The ambulance service In Campbell County, for example, transports
many patients from Gillette to hospitals in Casper and Sheridan.
This ambulance service is supplemented by a privately operated air
ambulance, which transports patients mostly to Sheridan and Billings,
104
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 18—Location of active physicians (M.D. and D.O.) in relation to population: December 31, 1967
Physicians
State
Montana
HI Nebraska
o
Ul
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming
Region
United States
Population
1.000
699
1,443
632
668
319
3,761
197,863
Total
766
1,768
653
631
340
4,158
299,724
Federal
82
140
90
93
38
443
24,187
Non-Federal
684
1,628
563
538
302
3,715
275,537
All active physicians
per 100,000 populatioi
110
123
103
94
107
111
151
Source: Health Resources Statistics, Health Manpower and Health Facilities, 1969, Public Health
Service, U.S. Department of Health, Education and. Welfare, May 1970. G.P.O. Washington, D.C.
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
If counties find that physician recruitment efforts are unpro-
ductive, they may wish to concentrate on providing fast ambulance
service to regional hospitals Instead. Under such a revised
ordering of priorities, local county hospitals would concent-rate
on out-patient care, and transfer most in-patient work to regional
hospitals in cities such as Casper, Sheridan, Billings, Bismarck,
and Minot. Perhaps this solution will not be considered ideal by
many proud communities, but it may be realistic.
Another means of expanding the available physician supply is
through the employment of physician assistants and through the
development of ample public health nursing agencies. In Campbell
County, the public health nurses have departed from the concept of
nursing for the Indigent needy, and have become essentially physi-
cian aides in many of their activities: In Rock Springs (a town
outside the study area), seven of the nine local physicians have
established a medical services corporation, and have collectively
hired three trained MEDEX physician assistants who are responsible
for managing the hospital emergency room. Although these assistants
work under the supervision of the physicians, their presence pre-
vents a physician from having to be constantly on call at the
hospital for emergencies. Health care administrators in Sweetwater
County consider these physicians' assistants to be well trained and
highly competent in emergency medical procedures.
Another need for emergency health care professionals Is at the
plant sites. Industrial nurses and ambulance personnel will be
needed at all major construction sites. Highly specialised training
•
106
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
in industrial accidents and in transporting Industrial accident
victims from inaccessible places is required of persons filling
these positions. For this reason, recruitment may not be any
easier for this skill than for any other highly specialized con-
struction-related skill. It is probably not too soon to begin
encouraging local young people to consider careers in this field.
Other health care services are often closely related to social
service vorki Many mental health services, for example, are more
nearly social services than medical services. The most effective
mental health organizations in the surveyed counties are those that
have been most actively involved in seeking grant funding to pro-
vide a variety of professional personnel in each major community.
Although many of the less medically oriented types of mental health
#
services could be effectively integrated with other social services,
and thus disassociated from the stigma attached to the term "mental
health,1' existing mental health organizations in all counties are
performing a valuable service. The major problem for the future is
in providing enough of these kinds of services to accommodate the
needs of a rapidly increasing population.
Studies of "boom" areas suggest that adaptation and adjustment
problems in health care intensify during periods of rapid growth.
Present funding arrangements that require continuous grant applica-
tions on the part of an agency may not provide the level of improve-
ment that will be needed soon. Partial solutions to this funding
difficulty may be illustrated by two ongoing efforts of the North-
east Wyoming Mental Health Center. This agency is currently
107
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
involved in discussion to initiate contractual arrangements with
the local Welfare Department to provide social services to welfare
clients. These discussions arose from the discovery that 40 percent
of the mental health agency's clientele are eligible for welfare
services. At the same time, the social welfare agency has been
returning Federal and State funds that were budgeted to provide
social services to these very same people! Also, the Northeast
Wyoming Mental Health Center and one of the energy companies are
discussing the desirability of drawing a contract for provision of
whatever mental health services the company's employees may need.
If new employees brought into the area by the energy company strain
locally available services beyond their capability, Mental Health
Center staff believe the company should provide funds so that these
services can be extended to meet the new demands.
Newcomers, however, are not the only citizens who will need
assured access to counseling services. Long-term residents will
also have to make abrupt adjustments as the result of coal develop-
ment. The elderly will be among those most affected. Provision
should be made to help elderly people on fixed incomes from suffer-
ing unduly as a result of impact-related economic and social
difficulties.
Home health care services could be provided for citizens who
do not want to be placed in nursing homes. However, adequate
retirement and nursing home facilities should be provided for those
residents who need or prefer institutional care. All surveyed
counties -~- have these facilities, or are in the process of
108
-------
Discussion Draft
• NGPRP - 6/74
providing thorn, but none of the facilities have much room for
additional patients. Only Campbell County has plans to construct
retirement apartments near the nursing home-hospital complex so
that elderly people can maintain their independence with relative
security, knowing that immediate medical care is available if they
need it.
There may be a need for comprehensive health planning organi-
zations in the impact areas. There are such organizations else-
where. However, they too need to be strengthened to be effective
mechanisms for planning future health service needs. Providing
adequate, accessable, low-cost health services to the region's
elderly and those on fixed incomes should be given high priority
in any future health planning decision. Accessability could be
provided by outreach programs or mobile clinics. Welfare programs,
despite the social stigma, could be considered when health service
units are planned. The higher wages paid to construction personnel
will lessen the buying power of those inhabitants on limited in-
comes, thus making it more difficult for them to secure adequate
health care, as well as other services.
Welfare Services
Generally, welfare services are supplied under provisions of
State and Federal legislation, and most agencies do not vary in
organisational structure from county to county. Multlcounty orga-
nisational arrangements do vary, however, and so does staff size.
For example, welfare services in Sheridan and Campbell Counties
are provided by a multicounty welfare department with main offices
109
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
In Sheridan. The Sheridan area la staffed more fully than the
Gillette office (Campbell County), even though both cities and
both count lea are similar in size. Partly, the large number of
available jobs in Campbell County keeps welfare needs low; but
also, the large group of elderly people living in Sheridan gener-
ates greater welfare needs.
The situation in Gillette, which has developed as a result
of the oil boom there, seems somewhat different from the situation
that has resulted from the construction boom in Rock Springs,
Wyoming. In Rock Springs, the Sweetwater County Welfare Department
operates with a 17-member staff, compared to the A-member staff in
Gillette. Although Sweetwater County is larger than Campbell County
in both population and land area, it is not four times as large in
either respect. The difference in staff size seems to result, at
least partly* from a difference in the character of the case work.
The Sweetwater County welfare director reports that his workers are
constantly busy with short-term case work. As an example of this
type of problem, he cites the situation of a construction worker
from Tennessee who decided he did not like working in Wyoming and
took off for Tennessee to seek a new job, leaving his wife and
family in Rock Springs. Immediately* the woman came to the Welfare
Office to seek assistance. It la understood that once the husband
settles in a new job back in Tennessee, he may send for his family.
But for the moment, the family la abandoned and in need.
In other cases, women and children are left permanently in
Rock Springs without means of support. The Welfafe Director feels
110
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
that Rock Springs' problems do not arise so much from the number
of people on welfare at any given time as from the number of people
the social workers must work with dally because of the instability
of social conditions in the area. Although Rock Springs is not in
the study area, it provides some indications of the scope of the
public service needs, once industrial activities begin in the six
studied counties.
Education
The provision of school facilities in a "boom" area is one of
the most difficult problems to be faced by those counties and
communities where rapid coal development is expected. Some of the
initial growth in construction-phase population will be followed
by a more permanent population of operating personnel. Schools
can be built to meet the needs of the future permanent population,
and thus cover part of the classroom needs of construction-related
families. However, some classrooms will ultimately have to be made
available on a short-term basis during peak construction activities.
To meet these needs without excessive capital expenditure will re-
quire temporary mobile classrooms that can be moved to other "boom"
areas as needed.
The space requirements in the study counties and the cost of
additional educational facilities have been estimated (using 1970
as a base) by the Bureau of Reclamation (Table 19). Also, the
Bureau has developed estimates of both the number of new personnel
that will be needed and the budget Increases necessary to pay their
salaries (Table 20). Fluctuations in the number of needed teachers
111
-------
laoits IT-— new classroom space ana costs lor seiectf
(1970 dollars)
State
Montana
Montana
North Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming
Wyoming
County
Big Horn
Rosebud
Mercer '
Oliver
Campbell
Sheridan
Item
Classroom space
Cost
Classroom space
Cost
Classroom space
Cost
Classroom space
Cost
Classroom space
Cost
Classroom space
Cost
Unit
Sq. Ft.
Dollars
Sq. Ft.
Dollars
Sq. Ft.
Dollars
Sq. Ft.
Dollars
Sq. Ft.
Dollars
Sq. Ft.
Dollars
Total
211,000
7,385,000
440,000
15,400,000
517,000
18,095,000
65,000
2,275,000
450,000
15,750,000
738,000
25,830,000
sa counties,
1980
21,000
735,000
78,000
2,730,000
42,000
1,470,000
19,000
665,000
217,000
7,595,000
139,000
4,865,000
scenario 11
1985
54,000
1,890,000
158,000
5,530,000
173,000
6,055,000
0
0
148,000
5,180,000
278,000
9,730,000
2000
136,000
4,760,000
204,000
9,140,000
302,000
10,570,000
46,000
1,610,000
85,000
2,975,000
321,000
11,235,000
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974).
Discuss
NGPRP -
i
o* o
**NI 8
-------
Table 20—Added personnel and salary requirements for education in selected counties, Scenario II
(1970 dollars)
State
Montana
Montana
M
u
U>
North Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming
Wyoming
County
Big Horn
Rosebud
Mercer
Oliver
Campbell
Sheridan
Item
School employees
Annual salaries
School employees
Annual salaries
School employees
Annual salaries
School employees
Annual salaries
School employees
Annual salaries
School employees
Annual salaries
Unit
*
Number
Dollars
Number
Dollars
Number
Dollars
Number
Dollars
Number
Dollars
Number
Dollars
Total
132
1,320,000
334
3,340,000
345
3,450,000
46
460,000
460
4,600,000
572
5,720,000
1980
9
90,000
34
340,000
19
190,000
9
90,000
. 98
980,000
61
610,000
1985
32
320,000
105
1,050,000
96
960,000
8
80,000
163
1,630,000
184
1,840,000
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974).
2000
91
910,000
195
1,950,000
230
2,300,000
29
290,000
199
1,990,000
327
3,270,000
z o
O H«
w o
OB
1 00
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
and their salary requirements will depend on the scheduling of con-
struction activities and the size of the work force during the
various years.
In Campbell County, local ability to deal with problems associ-
ated with rapid growth has been markedly improved through the con-
solidation of all school districts into one county-wide district,
under the direction of a highly experienced professional superin-
tendent. Through this administrative arrangement, resources can be
deployed more equitably, both to maintain educational quality in all
schools and to avoid the worst consequences of "boom" development in
one particular area of the county. Even more important, consolida-
tion of the school districts enables the tax benefits of an indus-
trial plant in one part of the county to be shared among all the
schools.* Through consolidation, the county has been able to assemble
a collection of mobile classrooms that can be moved as needed to any
school in the county. Because of this unification, specialized
services can be offered to all schools. This would not have been
possible if smaller, individual school districts within the county
had to fund these on their own.
Fire Protection
Just as it has proved effective for Campbell County to unify
school districts into a county-wide school system, it has also
proved effective to unify all fire protection districts into one
* In Campbell County, consolidation of the school system has not
it substantial reduction in the number of schools. In fact, be-
cause of travel distance, one school is kept open for one student.
However, if the school district had a smaller tax base for support
of its program, this might not be possible.
114
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
county-wide service. This unified system has improved the effi-
ciency, the economy, and especially the coordination of the county's
fire protection services. Such a system should be considered in all
the other impact areas as well. Complete details of the Campbell
County fire protection program can be found in the Bureau of
Reclamation study (1974).
Another possibility suggests that the Montana counties relieve
their sheriffs from responsibility for rural fire protection services.
Further, as development proceeds, most fire companies will very likely
need to upgrade their available equipment and develop a combination
of paid and volunteer staff. At present, most fire-fighting orga-
nizations are staffed entirely by volunteers. Only Sheridan County
and the City of Sheridan maintain full-time, paid fire crews.
Law Enforcement
Generally, as population Increases in a "boom" area, the need
for law enforcement service Increases. Both Rosebud County, Montana,
and Sweetwater County, Wyoming, have experienced such an increase
since construction activities on thermoelectric generating facili-
ties began. For example, citations of all types in Rock Springs
increased 40 percent from 1972 to 1973, resulting in an Increase
of fine revenues from $43,322 to $60,025.* In other words, per
capita citations increased at a faster rate than population. The
capability of local law enforcement officials was Improved by a
consolidation of the Sheriff's Department with the City Police
* Speeding and public Intoxication citations nearly doubled
during the period.
115
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Department in Forsyth. The City Police Chief was appointed Sheriff
by the County Commissioners, and assumed responsibility for the
integration of the two departments. Without question, a similar
integration of county and city police would be worth consideration
in other surveyed counties. Through such a step, duplication of
Jail, administrative facilities, and radio equipment is avoided.
Once a unified system of radio dispatch is created, that switch-
hoard can become the center for all emergency radio coonunicatlon
in the county. Fire and ambulance dispatch can be coordinated
through the same switchboard.
Finally, closer cooperative arrangements and cross-deputization
between Sheriff's Departments and Indian reservation police should
be considered in order to eliminate some forms of jurisdictions!
overlaps. In the process the overall law enforcement capability
of the affected areas would be Improved.
Highways and Roads
Highway expenditures are more difficult to estimate than those
services that have a measurable relationship to the population. The
major highway and road needs in the counties surveyed will be for
access roads to new plant and mine locations. Because these sites
are expected to be substantial distances from existing roads, con-
struction of access roads will be costly. Given already expressed
concerns about the availability of income with which to provide
needed services, a question can be raised as to the appropriateness
of county-financed roads to these locations. Perhaps this is a cost
»
that should be borne by the companies directly as part of their
116
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
initial capital investment. Certainly, if traffic flows to the
Colstrip and Jim Brldger plants are any indication, dirt or scoria
plant-access roads cannot be considered viable.
In addition to plant and mine access roads, several highways
serving the most heavily impacted counties will have to be upgraded,
Route 1315, which connects Colstrip to 1-94 west of Forsyth, has
already generated ouch local demand for improvement. After plant
and mine development begins in the Ashland area of Rosebud County,
improvements to Route 1212 will be desirable, possibly over the
whole distance from Alxada to Bar din. Also, at that time, gravel
roads from Ashland to Miles City, from Ashland to Forsyth, from
Busby through Kirby to Decker, and from Ashland through Blrney to
Decker and Sheridan will presumably require paving.
If the level of traffic on the roads from Point of Rocks in
Sweetwater County, Wyoming, to the Jim Bridger plant is any indi-
cation of future traffic in the areas where plants are being con-
st ructued, road standards should be set substantially higher than
they usually are for paved farm-to-*market roads. In Big Horn
County, farm-to market road standards have proven Insufficient for
the weight loads of the mine construction equipment hauled over
them. Maintenance costs over a short section of paved road west
from Hardin have Increased substantially since development of the
Sarpy Creek mines!te began. To offset these costs, the Big Horn
County Commissioners have established a permit system for vehicles
over a certain weight. The modest fee schedule is patterned after
the State fee schedule for heavy vehicles. Although the resultant
117
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
revenues do not cone close to covering the cost of repairing the
roads, it helps. Perhaps in the future, rates could be increased.
Inasmuch as most of the coal tax revenue (particularly in
Montana) now accrues to the State, another considered alternative
is to have the State Highway Department assume responsibility for
all secondary roads in coal development areas. This proposal la
especially appealing in view of recent Increases in the cost of
road paving. Wyoming, for example, has an Industrial Road Fund
that provides State aid to counties on a fifty-fifty "matching"
fund basis for Industrial roads. Often the county "match" is
provided by the firm needing the road. If counties handle all
Increased paving themselves, it has been estimated they might have
to spend as much as $25,000 per mile.
Public Transportation Facilities
As population increases in the study areas, improved commercial
bus and airline service may be necessary. Also, but not as likely,
if existing patterns provide any guide, will be commuter buses to
plant and mine sites. Even with increased gasoline costs, wage
levels seem to be high enough to offset most of the pressure on
workers at the Jim Bridger plant to use available commuter buses.
Host workers seem to prefer their own cars, although in some cases
workers travel in carpools.
A situation in North Dakota may become a problem in other
places. Many people in the Oliver and Mercer County areas wanted
Increased bus service to and from Bismarck. At present, however,
it is not possible to go to Bismarck by bus and return in the same
118
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
day. Thus, actual demand will not arise (even though latent demand
exists) until service increases. On the other hand, service will
not increase until real demand is greater.
Municipal Services
In many of the communities surveyed, municipal sewer and water
facilities are either barely adequate or are adequate for only a
small increment of growth. Necessary extensions of sewer and water
lines, improvement of treatment plants, and increases in storage
capacity will be costly to the communities concerned. In some
cases, new sources of water will have to be sought. For example,
the city of Gillette is considering abandoning its present source
of poor quality water (from wells) and replacing it with water
piped from one of the reservoirs that will serve new local industry.
Presumably, the water will come In the same pipeline that transports
the industrial water.
Those towns expecting to grow beyond 10,000 people may want to
begin planning for the construction of sewage treatment facilities
to replace their present lagoon systems. The larger cities of
Gillette* and, particularly, Sheridan will need to plan expansion
of existing sewage treatment plants as growth proceeds. Again,
costly capital expenditures will be Involved. The specific costs
of sewer and water facilities, like the cost of streets, storm
sewers, and garbage collection, cannot be projected until specific
land use plans are drawn for each community.
* Even Gillette's new plant will be unequal to the anticipated
load before the end of the century.
119
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Recreation facilities
In all the counties surveyed, the desire for expanded recre-
ation facilities aroused greater public interest than all other
surveyed concerns. The urban and town populations in all surveyed
counties seem to want increased recreation'facilities. The question
arises whether desire for facilities is equivalent to need. The
question is largely philosophical, inasmuch as the relationship be-
tween recreation facilities, the quality of life, and general
community welfare is largely immeasurable. Nevertheless, some
studies suggest that recreation opportunities reflect concern on
the part of the whole conmunity for the welfare of individual
members and, therefore, reduce the possibility of alienation and
destructive behavior, particularly among younger citizens.
Cost of Services
To develop meaningful cost data for communities and counties
would require more study of such items as the services provided by
various levels of local government and the various methods of
financing the required services. This Information is not fully
available at this time. Generally, as the population increases
and the quantity of government service requirements increase, two
effects can be anticipated. First, as the population grows, a
wider variety of services would be demanded because of the in-
creased complexity and changes in social groups making up the
new population. Secondly, as the population grows, the total
cost of local government operations will increase. (Per capita
costs may ultimately decrease In counties where major industrial
development will occur.)
120
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
In order to give a rough approximation of future county oper-
ating costs, the Bureau of Reclamation study projected the operating
budgets of the six counties at the same per capita rate as prevailed
for fiscal year 1974 in each county. Estimates of future county
budget requirements are shown for each county and scenario in
Table 21. Inflationary trends have not been included so these
budget estimates could be considered as 1974 dollars.
Funds to meet county budget obligations come from several
t
sources such as county purpose tax levies, reserve funds, revenue
sharing, and license fees. The percent of county budget require-
ments funded through county purpose levies varies from year to year,
depending on the size of the proposed budget and the amount of funds
anticipated from other sources (Table 22). A comparison of potential
county tax revenues from coal mining and industrial development, with
projected increased budget requirements for Scenario II, indicates
that increased tax revenues could be sufficiently high to exceed the
budget requirements in Montana and North Dakota counties (Table 23).
In Campbell County, Wyoming, tax revenues could cover a major portion
of the increased county budget requirements. However, Sheridan
County, Wyoming, would probably have a severe deficit.
Of course, this comparison only considers the direct tax revenue
from coal mining and industrial development at current levies. The
increased tax base from supporting business investments, housing in-
vestments, and other sources would add to the total potential tax
base for each county. Future county levies could probably be re-
duced in some counties. The major problem of providing services will
121
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
State
County
Scenario
Montana:
Big Horn:
Scenario I
II
III
Rosebud:
Scenario I
II
III
North Dakota:
Mercer :
Scenario I
II
III
Oliver :
Scenario I
II
III
Wyoming:
Campbell :
Scenario I
II
III
Sheridan:
Scenario I
II
III
by scenarios
F.Y.
1974 1980
Million
1.3
1.60
1.62
1.84
2.2
3.50
3.50
5.32
1.2
1.56
1.56
3.96
.3
.76
.76
.76
3.4
4.90
5.78
6.66
3.2
3.52
4.22
4.96
m^f • «^^»^»w^^^"
1985
dollars
1.60
2.07
2.88
3.50
5.59
11.53
1.56
2.76
6.36
.76
.76
.76
5.00
7.24
13.06
3.97
5.89
7.90
2000
1.70
2.90
5.49
3.78
8.05
15.86
1.85
4.74
10.68
.76
1.10
1.55
5.51
7.89
20.20
4.13
7.65
11.49
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974),
122
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
be during the construction period and in early development years,
when the tax base will not have reached a sufficiently high level
to provide the required revenue.
Table 22—Percent of county budget funded by county purpose
tax levies, selected counties, fiscal year 1974
State
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
County
Big Horn
Rosebud
" Mercer
Oliver
Campbell
Sheridan
Percent
42
42
48
20
44
33
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974).
Conclusion
The total cost of providing public services will increase with
the population growth attendant to coal development. For the cities
and counties affected, this will mean additional burdens and a
change in expenditure priorities in a number of cases. The major
problem, however, will be to provide the services when needed.
The potential development lags (funding availability to service
availability) will be the most difficult and important obstacle
to overcome.
Spatial. Temporal, and Jurisdictional Disparities
The distribution and timing of revenue availability and
service demand will determine the capability of localities to meet
rapid development needs. Various local, State, and Federal policies
123
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 23—Estimated increase in county budget requirements and
increased county tax revenues over 1974 level, selected
counties, Scenario II
State
County
Item 1980 1985 2000
Million dollars
Montana:
Big Horn:
County budget JL/
Tax revenue 2J
Rosebud :
County budget
Tax revenue
North Dakota:
Mercer :
County budget
Tax revenue
Oliver:
County budget
Tax revenue
Wyoming:
Campbell:
County budget
Tax revenue
Sheridan :
County budget
Tax revenue
.12
.72
1.30
2.73
.36
4.53
.26
1.26
2.38
1.01
1.02
.03
.57
3.20
3.39
7.02
1.56
8.57
.26
1.63
3.84
2.78
2.69
.07
1.40
6.76
5.85
7.94
3.54
14.37
.60
4.13
4.49
3.90
4.45
.36
I/ Increase over 1974 budget level.
2/ Potential county tax revenue from mining and industrial develop-
ment at current tax levy. Does not reflect increases in supporting
business investments, housing investments, etc.
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974).
124
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
create jurisdictional overlaps and gaps that can and do result in
hardships for communities faced with rapid development. In some
instances, localities and States may be forced to expand their
infrastructure as a result of developments outside of their
jurisdictional control. Therefore, State and Federal action may
be needed to assist rapidly developing localities.
Such actions as Increasing the local government's share of
tax revenues derived from mining activities in their area, creating
predevelopment loans to counties and cities to be Impacted by coal
development, and developing full-time professional planning staffs
would provide some of the tools needed by local governments to
effectively deal with rapid development.
Some Problems in Revenue and Service Requirements
The degree of impact will vary for each type of governmental
body and among the various counties. To-effectively deal with the
needs that have been broadly projected, officials at all levels of
government will need to secure funds to expand and add facilities,
as well AS hire additional personnel. The major obstacle is that
the tax base and the funds generated grow at a pace slower than the
need for the service they support. Table 24 depicts the dilemma of
two counties, Sheridan In Wyoming and Big Horn in Montana. Presum-
ably, many coal miners and plant personnel will select Sheridan
(city) as their place of residence while working in the coal fields
just across the State line in Big Horn County, Montana. The city
and county of Sheridan will be called on to provide the needed
125
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Table 24—School budgets versus tax revenue: Increases over 1974, Big Horn County, Montana and Sheridan
County, Wyoming, Scenario II
Biff Horn County
Tsar
•
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
School
Budget
3
27
7
7
280
624
454
514
614
491
1,028
1,068
1,018
1,138
1,111
787
Tax
Revenue
0
0
0
0
0
1,164
1,164
1,164
1,164
1,164
6,381
6,381
6,381
6,381
6,381
6,381
Deficit
Annual
3
27
7
7
280
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cumulative
$1.000
3
30
37
44
324
—
—
—
~
— •
—
—
—
—
—
^^
School
Budget
28
58
18
18
660
2,283
1,893
2,033
2,263
1,965
4,418
4,528
4,398
4,678
4,626
3,453
Sheridan County
Tax
Revenue
0
0
0
0
0
116
116
116
116
116
233
233
233
233
233
233
Deficit
Annual
28
58
18
18
660
2,167
1,777
1,917
2,147
1,849
4,185
4,295
4,165
4,445
4,393
3,220
Cumulative
28
86
104
122
782
2,949
4,726
6,643
8,790
10,639
14,824
19,119
23,284
27,729
32,122
35,342
— - Not applicable.
Source: Bureau of Reclamation (1974).
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
social services generated by the employees who work in Montana.
Yet, Sheridan will not receive any tax benefits from the exploita-
tion of Montana coal.
As Table 24 indicates, certain counties and communities will
be seriously burdened in a short time, and will not have the
resources to support the needed services. Construction actiVites
and the attendant rapid influx of workers and families will create
an immediate strain on the service delivery systems of the areas
involved. The methods available to finance the increased services
will vary according to the service required. County and local
school districts may have to raise their mill levies in the short
run to provide immediate relief, but the main benefit of increased
revenue will occur in the long run. This would probably not be
true for communities (towns and cities) where the only increase in
the tax base would be from internal growth. The communities would
only benefit directly if an industrial complex was contained within
its corporate limits.
Expansion of community services, such as water and sewer
services and streets, can be accomplished through special improve-
ment districts when the plant capacity to expand is available. This
would, when possible, provide a method whereby the persons demanding
and receiving the services would pay for them. Generally, this
would mean that construction personnel who will be in the region
a short time would pay little toward these needs. In most cases,
the communities to be impacted do not have the capacity to expand
their sewer and water plants.
127
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
School districts that encompass coal developments will be hard
pressed to provide the physical school plant capacity during indus-
trial construction periods and in the early operating years. It
takes time to plan for new school facilities as well as other services,
and more time to build the required facilities. To provide these
services and facilities will require a lead time of A to 5 years.
School districts, as well as other governmental bodies, cannot plan
on hearsay coal developments. It is imperative that energy companies
cooperate by making their development plans known in order to provide
as much lead time as possible. This will give communities and govern-
ments sufficient time to have the facilities available at or near the
time they are required. The communities affected will benefit by not
being "over-run" with crisis planning, and the industrial development
companies will be able to insure adequate social services for their
employees. An open and frank discussion of planned developments would
benefit all. If the communities, counties, and States do not receive
adequate information from the development companies voluntarily, some
type of legislative action may be needed. This information could be
required in the Environmental Impact Statement, Water Application
Permit, or some other type of document.
Methods of Alleviating Disparities
Of utmost importance in alleviating disparities among local
jurisdictions is legislation to alter existing revenue problems, and
planning to avoid or minimize disparities. This is not possible in
all cases. As discussed earlier, an open and frank discussion of
128
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
planned coal and associated developments would allow legislators
and planners sufficient time to take the steps necessary to reduce
impacts.
Legislation
The legislative process is not always smooth, and no legisla-
tion can satisfy everyone. However, it is through the legislative
process, at all levels of government, that decisions and ideas
become law. Many laws have outlived their usefulness, either through
technological change or institutional reality. Other laws, policies,
and decisions, whether people like to admit it, are sometimes in-
effective or regressive. In certain respects, the tax laws of the
various States and the Federal Government do not serve the people in
the ways they should. If such is the case, these laws should be
changed. The following examples illustrate revenue disparities in
State-local revenue distribution, and suggest legislation that could
alleviate them.
The Montana Strip Coal Mine License levies a tax based on the
BTU rating of the coal. The higher the BTU rate, the higher the
tax. Counties in which the coal is mined receive 3 cents per ton
for all coal mined in that county. Prior to the 197A session of the
Montana Legislature, the county share was 1 cent per ton. Actions
in other States, such as those recently enacted by the Montana
Legislature, would help the localities secure the revenues to finance
the needed services on a timely basis.
Federal legislation could be enacted that recognizes Federal
responsibility to aid communities affected by Federal energy policies.
129
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
This concept has a precedence in defense programs, and could be
applied to energy development programs. However, State and
local governments should not depend solely on Federal assistance
programs. Federal Government subsidies °ay reduce the incentive
for local and State governments to amend their tax structures and
provide legislation necessary to reduce revenue and service lags*
In other instances, new industries locating within the State
receive tax exemption status for several years. Montana, for
example, has a special classification for computing the taxable
value of new industrial property. This classification allows the
property to have its taxable value computed at 7 percent of the
assessed value for the first 3 years of economic life. Thereafter,
the taxable value is computed at 30 percent of the assessed value.
The assessed value is computed as 40 percent of the cost of the
facilities. Any person, corporation, firm, or partnership seeking
use of this classification for its property in computing property
taxes has to make application to the State Board of Equalization
for approval. This means that new power plants, gasification plants,
and coal mines might not pay their full share of property taxes
during the first 3 years of operation.
North Dakota allows exemptions for new industries or business
under the Municipal Industrial Development Act. A new industry or
business may be granted partial or complete property and income tax
exemptions for up to 5 years. The municipality in which the
industry or business is located has to make application to the State
Board of Equalization for approval. In order to keep the property
130
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
tax exemption from eroding the tax base of the local municipality
and taxing districts, the law provides that the ad valorem tax
exemption be limited to the valuation over and above the assessed
valuation placed on the property in the preceding assessment period.
In determining whether or not an exemption will be granted, the
city or county and the State Board of Equalization determines whether
the tax exemption will give unfair advantage to the new enterprise.
Essentially, this means that the new industry may be exempt from
paying property taxes during the first 5 years of operation.
The above examples allow for the exemption and reduction of
taxes as an Incentive for an industry to locate within the jurisdic-
tion^ boundaries. These policies still have merit. However, it
is doubtful that, when this type of legislation was passed, the
States could have anticipated large-scale extractive industrial
development. The industries will benefit considerably by paying
reduced taxes to the State and communities; however, the communities
will have to provide more services than the revenue received can
support.
Altering the taxation process normally involves a considerable
delay in reacting to changes of circumstances. Time lags between
the beginning of a development, its assessment, the levy of taxes
on it, and the collection of these taxes may be 2 or more years.
During that interval, there will be increased demands on the infra-
structure and its services. Taxation during development may be
inequitable between existing residents and newcomers. Legislation
in some form may be required to provide financial assistance to the
affected communities.
131
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
Local and State legislation and possible constitutional
changes may be required to allow for prepayment or early payment
of taxes by the coal mine or coal utilization facilities. Several
firms have expressed a willingness to make early payments. However,
legal barriers may prevent either collection or distribution of these
payments, or both. The States could also loan money to the impacted
areas Until revenues exceed outlays, thereby permitting the impacted
areas to construct facilities when they are needed.
Whatever the best cost-sharing formula may be, State and Federal
policymakers should study the desirability of passing all coal-
related increases in the cost of county and city government along to
those who have generated the demand for coal. If this idea is
accepted, the costs could be passed on either to coal consumers
through appropriated taxes on coal production and conversion, or to
the Nation as a whole through the provision of Impact aid. This
latter option is perhaps particularly cogent in light of the amount
of Federal royalty income likely to be derived from Western coal
mining.
Furthermore, the Federal Government should reconsider present
leasing policies and the revenue-generating implications for the
States and localities.
Federal Aid
Possibly, the Federal Government should take extra responsibility
for sharply Increased service costs if these costs result from abrupt
readjustment in national energy policy. If the speed of development
causes such rapid Increases in the cost of county government that the
132
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
local and State tax structure cannot handle them, perhaps the
Federal Government should assume a greater role In financing
local facilities and programs. Such aid should continue until
the tax structure can be adjusted to reflect both a fair distri-
bution of cost burdens and a smooth transition to whatever new
arrangements may be legislated.
Even the tax income accruing to the States from coal develop-
ment may not provide as much aid to the counties as they need.
If the States are obliged to allocate general funds for this
purpose, this would place an additional burden on the three States.
In effect, the Nation would be asking these States not only to bear
the hardships associated with rapid development of a nationally
needed resource, but to finance sharply increased governmental
costs as well. If cost increases were modest, they could be
absorbed against the prospect of increased State and county tax
income. But, if the costs are as great as present projections
suggest, the traditional methods of State and local finance will
not be able to bear the short-term burden without unreasonable
sacrifice of the area residents.
Planning and Coordination
Another major item to be considered is identifying the pro-
blems, and the steps or methods needed to overcome or cope with
them. At present, the need to create effective local full-time
institutions for planning and for implementing the resultant plans
is the most basic service need identified. After the basic
planning institution is established, a plan or system should be
133
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
formulated to search out the programs most beneficial to the
areas concerned. There are over 1,200 Federal programs available
that might assist communities. HoweVer, many local and State
officials are not familiar with the programs, funding availability,
or the procedure required to secure assistance.
In the area of Federal Aid and Planning and Coordination,
attention should be given to the Federal Automated Career System
(FACS). This System can provide referral of certain types of
professional employees to State and local governments for detail
assignments or for short-term task forces. This could be considered
as one means of obtaining planning assistance.
Federal Regional Council and State agencies should assist each
other and the localities involved in maximizing the use of
appropriate and available programs. Such responsibilities may be
incorporated into a State/local coordination planning body. Plan-
ning agencies then would be able to recommend the appropriate
programs or the type of policies needed to alleviate funding lags,
including changes in the tax structure.
Multicounty planning agencies could be established to deal
with development problems that transcend county and State lines.
Enabling State legislation may be required in some instances.
Some counties may feel their planning options are being limited.
Problems such as this will have to be worked out locally.
Problem Areas
Housing—In most communities in the rapidly developing coal
areas, there is and vill.be a need for housing for the construction
134
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
crews. These communities are not prepared to meet these housing
needs. Mobile homes might be used as temporary solutions.
However, they do create problems. State planning agencies could
assist the local governments in developing model mobile home court
ordinances to encourage safe, sanitary, and orderly development.
Where possible, the States and localities should encourage private
developers to construct new housing for the long-term new residents.
Another suggestion for meeting housing needs would be to
encourage construction of duplexes or other multiple-dwelling units.
The original owners might include local residents, who would sell
the structures to the permanent operating personnel.
Certain Federal agencies, such as the Farmers Home Administration
and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, can provide
technical and, in some cases, financial assistance to private enter-
prises. Also, the States should consider establishing a State housing
finance agency. Such an agency was recently proposed in Montana and
one has been established in South Dakota. The agency could make
low-interest-rate loans available to encourage construction of homes
for low and moderate income families.
Water and Sewer—Water and sewer facilities will need to be
expanded in order to serve the new populace. Communities may take
advantage of programs and assistance offered by the Environmental
Protection Agency and the Farmers Home Administration. These agencies
provide loans and grants to communities to establish solid waste
management and waste disposal systems. The Department of Housing
and Urban Development has similar programs for communities of 10,000
or more inhabitants.
135
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
Some local public capital improvements are financed by
bonds which can spread or delay the pay-back over a number of
years. In North Dakota, some private and quasi-public improve-
ments, such as industrial plants, shopping centers, and hospitals,
have been financed by revenue bonds. Revenue bonds are not an
obligation of the municipality nor do they require voter approval,
as opposed to general obligation bonds which are also available.
Sometimes the industry Involved purchases 'the municipal bonds.
These bonds are tax free, providing an additional tax advantage.
Where an industry or commercial facility is financed by revenue
bonds and a lease-purchase arrangement is negotiated, corporate
funds are freed for operating capital.
Health Care—The health delivery systems in the coal development
areas may not be adequate to serve an expanding population. Some
health delivery systems serving the rural communities provide a
minimum level of service. Often the residents are forced to travel
to larger communities to receive adequate health services. Various
State departments of health should aid these localities in making
greater use of the appropriate Federal programs to increase and
improve their health delivery programs.
Education—The educational system is likely to experience
severe stress as a result of the rapid increase in the number of
school-age children during the construction population boom. Often,
educational programs and systems cannot respond with sufficient
speed or scope to provide adequate facilities to serve this popula-
tion, but find themselves "stuck" with complexes that are larger than
136
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
those needed for the post-boom population. Temporary classrooms
(mobile structures or modular structures) could be provided during
the boom periods. When the boom has subsided, the school districts
would have more accurate financial and enrollment information on
which to base decisions regarding construction of permanent facil-
ities. An open forum involving boards of education and the develop-
ment companies would aid the planning decisions of the boards of
education. This would also help the development companies maintain
their work force by reducing social tensions; families moving into
the area would have a better idea of what is in store for them.
Generating sufficient capital is another problem the school
districts will have to overcome. Coordination of activities with
the State's Attorney's General may provide solutions. A method for
prepayment of taxes to school districts could alleviate the short-
term crunch. School districts may also want to explore the
possibility that development companies might donate, loan, or lease
the necessary facilities to aid in accomodating rapid pupil growth.
State offices of education should anticipate tax lag problems and,
where and when necessary, provide funds to local jurisdictions so
they can carry on their educational programs without overcrowding
or diminishing the quality of education. Furthermore, it is
recommended that the concept of federally impacted school districts
be expanded to include school districts impacted by persons employed
in energy-related facilities being used to meet national energy needs
and goals.
137
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
Subsequent to planning and the determination of priorities,
there is the additional problem of implementing these plans and
the inadequacy of localities to finance the necessary community
facilities to accomodate growth. Innovative financing mechanisms
need to be developed to aid localities in funding these facilities.
Problems related to development, such as the construction of
adequate housing, schools, sewer and water, and recreational
facilities will require innovative financing programs as well as
legislation. The various levels of government may exercise their
regulatory powers to alleviate problems that often accompany coal
development. Other areas such as law enforcement, the courts, and
a multitude of other governmental programs will need full-time
staff personnel. Consolidation of some community and county functions
such as jails and traffic courts could benefit the areas concerned
through savings in operating costs. Also, the consolidation of
functions could possibly eliminate some jurisdictional overlaps.
Interagency coordination and cooperation will provide assistance
for communities in most cases. This cooperation should Include all
groups and all levels of government if it is to effectively deal
with the potential problems associated with rapid development.
Conclusion
The principal problems that must be addressed by communities
facing Impact from coal development are (1) establishing a sensible
system for determining priorities, (2) developing a planning
mechanism with appropriate personnel; and (3) providing for citizen
participation in decisionmaking.
138
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Development Regulations and Policies
Local, State, and Federal policies and regulations will
determine to a great extent the where and when of rapid coal
development. They form the constraints within which cost and
profit decisions of the industry and individual corporations
function. Development will be accelerated or restricted through
the exercise of various policies and regulations. Those policies
and regulations affecting land use planning, zoning, environmental
standards, water appropriation, and the individual will greatly
influence the nature and extent of coal development in the Northern
Great Plains.
Land Use Planning
Regulation of development is essential to insure the region's
orderly growth. Unplanned development (coal and associated
development activities) can lead to overcrowding, unsanitary con-
ditions, unsightly and unpleasant development, and consequential
damage to neighboring activities. Land use planning and control
has been applied in various ways throughout the United States.
Various States and localities are, in one manner or another,
examining land use planning. Recent uncertainty as to Federal
legislation (H.R. 10294 and S. 268) has left the States in a
precarious position. The dilemma is: Should the States react to
Federal legislation and follow suit with similar legislation; or
should they develop their own policies and hope they satisfy
Federal guidelines?
Land use planning covers a wide spectrum of issues, problems
and policy decisions. These issues cannot be resolved through
139
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
simple decisions by uninformed decislonmakers. The decisions
will have to be made in coordination with all levels of govern-
ment and by a wide variety of Interests. The development of
coal lands in the West is one such land use planning issue, among
many.
The United States desires to increase energy selfsufficiency
by developing its natural resources. One method of achieving
selfsufficiency (expanding the use of low-sulfur Western coals) is
in direct conflict with desires of those who want to maintain the
unspoiled environment and serenity of the West. This is not
limited to conflicts between a few environmentalist groups and the
United States, but includes almost every conceivable alliance against
some other alliance or Interest group. There is a great diversity
of ownership in the lands of the Northern Great Plains.
Ownership by the federal government, the States, the
railroads and other private sectors of the economy present
a wide variety of conflicting ideas of how the lands should
be developed. The Northern Great Plains States are experi-
encing increasing difficulties in keeping a balance between
maintaining a quality environment and the development of
their natural resources. Products and by-products of extrac-
tion, processing and transportation of the resources in some
form or another to the rest of the nation may present some
real problems in terms of the depletion of the environmental
quality within the region. Under these conditions which offer
no return to "normalcy", the States are being thrust into a
responsibility for mediating among competing uses of resources,
preventing destructive conflicts between land uses and con-
serving non-renewable resources. [Nez and Mutter, 1973
The Western States, including the Northern Great Plains States,
are in a unique position; a substantial portion of their land and a
substantial portion of the mineral estate—not necessarily conterminous-
are owned by the Federal Government. Decisions regarding development
140
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
and use are determined by actions in Washington (Congressional as
well as Executive). Of the strlppable coal within the Fort Union and
Powder River formations, best estimates indicate that the Federal
Government owns about 55 percent of the mineral rights in Montana,
26 percent in North Dakota, and 45 percent in Wyoming. In addition,
Federal leasing programs will influence to varying degrees the leasing
programs of the States and the development of energy-related resources.
Montana ia reviewing its leasing policy, and indications are that it
will Increase the leasing rates considerably. Wyoming has established
new leasing rates that became effective February 7, 1974. North Dakota
is not presently leasing land for atrip mining, as a study is being con-
ducted to identify its coal resources. Granted, these are not specific
land use decisions; however, they will affect the leasing decisions of
private industry.
Land use planning will also affect development decisions on power
plant and gasification sitings, recreation activities on Federal lands,
and State and Indian lands, as well as on privately owned lands. Land
use planning is a macro look at the entire realm of possibilities
available for uses of the land. Zoning, on the other hand, is a micro
approach to land use planning and control.
Zoning
Zoning and all that it Implies is generally carried out at the
community and county levels. It varies among Statea and among
government subdivisions. It is primarily a response to a plan, and
141
-------
Discussion Draft
MGPRP 6/74
is the tool used to implement the plan. Zoning does not usually
affect what haa been done in the past—only what can be done in the
future. Probleaa sometimes ariae when the Juriadictional unit for
coning ia too mall. Growth and devslopnent bypass the coned area,
only to occur in the adjacent unconed area. In this respect, develop-
ment nay occur outside the jurisdiction*! boundary of a community;
yet the community must bear costs for providing services to residents
from outside the community. The principal coning regulation and
policy conflicts will involve coning for mobile hone courts, commercial
districts, subdivisions, and industrial tracts. Rightly or wrongly,
mobile hone courts carry a perceptual stigma for many people. This
attitude mey be based on the type of people who formally resided in
trailers, or the fear of lowering the resale value of a home by having
a mobile home court adjacent to the property. However, mobile homes
and mobile home courts will be necessary in order to accommodate the
temporary rapid Influx of construction workers in the principal impact
areaa.
Proper coning techniques and regulation of construction will
permit the affected communities to better plan for and handle growth,
thus eliminating to a considerable degree the negative aspects of
rapid temporary growth.
Minerals Leasing
Leasing activities will determine future development of the
Northern Great Plains coal and other mineral resources. Temporary
moratoriums on leasing of Indian, State and Federal landa have delayed
to some extent the Immediate development of Western mineral resources.
142
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
For instance, discussions are now underway in Washington, D.C., to
determine, set, and finalize national energy policies. As these
policies are implemented, coal development in the Northern Great
Plains will be either relatively restricted or encouraged. Further,
the economics of developing alternative sources of energy will also
determine the long-range effects of coal development in the region.
Coal for thermal electric generation Is ideal for immediate energy
supply. However, as various new technologies are developed and come
on line, the desirability and need for Western coal may be lessened.
It is impossible at this time to forecast technological breakthrough.
However, the threat of obsolesence and depletion of natural resources,
especially coal in some areas, is very real.
If Montana's present policy preferences are Implemented, no more
energy conversion plants will be built in the State in the next few
years. Future considerations may alter that decision. The Indians in
some instances are taking a "go slow" approach in order to analyze all
their options. North Dakota has taken a similar stance. Wyoming has
taken the position that mineral development must be environmentally,
economically, and socially sound, so that the quality of life can be
preserved. Depending on the influence of policy preferences such as
these, assumptions regarding the levels of development could change.
The leasing decisions and policies implemented by the States, tribal
councils, and the Federal Government will determine the development
143
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
levels. No matter how great the role of the Federal, State, and
tribal councils in leasing practices, the individual landowner may
have an important say in what the developmental levels will be. By
withholding from sale selected tracts of land, the rancher or farmer
may effectively forestall or prohibit future development in certain
areas. Selective withholding of land may prohibit the energy companies
from .securing the large coterminous tracts needed to economically
carry out strip mining. Whether or not pending Federal legislation
permits or prohibits the development of mineral rights on lands where
surface ownership differs will also determine the level of coal
development. Presently, debate in the U.S. House and Senate are
addressing this problem. Representative Melcher and Senator Mansfield
have introduced amendments to R.R. 11500 and S. 425 which would prohibit
strip mining where there is split ownership in mineral and surface
rights.
The Council of Economic Priorities has been quite critical of
the manner in which the Department of the Interior leases land for
resource development. Fox example, Interior leases land for develop-
ment when the market demand for that resource is low. The price paid
for that leasehold is commensurately low; therefore the profits accruing
to the public remains low when the price of the resource increases by
a shift in demand. Essentially, the Federal leasing policy has not
operated in the public interest.
144
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
Water
The availability of water, and the ability of energy producing
companies to secure the needed water, will also determine the develop-
ment levels of coal. Water is essential for almost every, type of
activity undertaken by man. Conflicts in water usage in the Northern
Great Plains may become a very serious problem. Water is abundant in
some areas and less so in others. The same holds true for coal.
However, simply because there is coal does not insure the availability
of sufficient water supplies for energy conversion. The conflict in
the Northern Great Plains is in competing uses of the water, such as
agriculture versus energy development. Each activity uses large
quantities of water. In the semiarid sections of the Plains States,
irrigation is used to supplement low rainfall; coal development may
disturb the groundwater availability in and adjacent to the
areas being mined. Direct diversion of surface water will require
various actions among the parties involved.
Montana and North Dakota have placed a moratorium on future
large water appropriation permits until they can determine the
optimum use of the water. The Yellowstone River Compact, Article X
(Ten), may limit some development in Montana and northeastern Wyoming.
The Supreme Court Decree of 1954 (Nebraska, Wyoming, and Colorado)
insures Nebraska of a specified water flow through the North Platte
River. This may limit development of coal conversion facilities along
145
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
the North Platte River, which is adjacent to the southern end of
the Powder River Formation and the Hanna Basin in Wyoming.
Pur the more, the reclamation of surface mined land may be
Impossible or Halted in certain areas If sufficient quantities of
vater cannot be secured.
Environmental Standards
Environmental legislation at the State and national levels may
restrict or impede coal development and conversion in the Northern
Great Plains. The technology is available to insure the maintenance
of the existing high environmental quality of the area. However,
the concentration of energy conversion facilities could erode the
environmental quality. Nebraska, for example, has a policy that
prohibits concentration of major pollution sources within a 20-«ile
radius of another major source of pollution. Each State in the region
has regulations and policies geared to insure the maintenance of
high air quality standards, and will use these regulations to maintain
that high standard. In this respect, some development may be forgone
•
if coal conversion facilities cannot or do not satisfy these State
policies.
Indemnification for Water Loss and Air Pollution
The problem of possible damage to farmers or ranchers through
water loss or air pollution could be alleviated through the creation
of an air and water indemnification fund. This would also entail novel
Methods of financing such a fund.
146
-------
Discussion Draft
HGPRP 6/74
Under certain circumstances, ground water and surface water
available for irrigation and other agricultural uses may be reduced
as a consequence of large-scale industrial use. The law with regard
to loss by surface water users is fairly clear, and therefore the
mechanissi for compensation can be reasonably developed. The law for
ground water is frequently vague, and therefore the mechanism for
compensation is much more difficult. In both instances, to remedy
the loss or injury as a result of reduced water availability, the
various States could take steps to implement a water loss indemnifi-
cation fund. In this program, the affected individual or group that
has been injured by loss of water may be made whole without his
bearing the cost of proving his water loss as well as the cost of
litigation. A simplified administrative review process conducted by
the regulatory agency which has Issued the mining permit, would
adjudicate such matters, determine liability, and establish payments
to cover damages if deemed appropriate. The financial base to support
the indemnification fund could be financed through general fund
appropriations, an Indemnification bond covering consequential damages
posted by the coal company, or allocation of a portion of the coal
severence tax or coal royalty tax.
Ranchers, farmers, and communities downwind from various coal
processing and utilisation facilities may find that an Increase in
airborne particulates and chemicals adversely affect their crops,
147
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRF 6/74
gardens, or livestock. In order to effectively resolve the potential
problems that nay arise from airborne particulate damage, an air
quality indemnification fund could be established along lines similar
to the water loss indemnification fund proposed above. Also, more
air monitoring stations could be established at various intervals
downwind from large point source polluters prior to the power plants'
opening, so that accurate base data could be obtained. This infor-
mation would be helpful both for enforcement and possible litigation.
Conclusion
Regulatory powers at all levels of government can preclude,
foratall, or encourage coal development. These include Federal,
State, and local laws concerning leasing of coal lands, air quality con-
trol, land use control, and water appropriation. Through the exercise
of these regulations and policies, the magnitude and velocity of coal
development will be determined, as well as through the ability of
people and government to adequately provide for the social services
and functions that will be needed in the region.
Further Research Needs
1. Legislation to establish a mortgage finance program to
help developers and communities provide adequate housing
during periods of rapid buildup and operation.
2. Legislation for Federal assistance programs to provide
adequate health care delivery systems in Impacted communities.
148
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP 6/74
3. Land use planning and zoning controls are needed to
effectively channel the location of growth In rapidly de-
veloping areas.
4. Legislation and Implementation mechanisms needed to
resolve Interstate and cross-county planning needs and
problems.
5. Legislation for some type of legal recourse to alleviate
adverse downwind and downstream Impacts associated with coal
development, e.g. Indemnification funds.
149
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
VI. EFFECTS ON NON-GOVERNMENTAL SERVICES
Several historical characteristics of the impact area have,
and will, Influence the delivery of non-governmental services.
The Northern Great Plains is a vast and sparsely populated portion
of the country. Over the years, the traditions of individualism
have become very pronounced; among the characteristics most admired
by residents of the area are independence and self-reliance. These
attitudes have probably been an important factor in determining the
level of demand for all types of services, a level which is quite
low compared to more urbanized parts of the country. Consequently,
the level of service delivery is also very low.
The Impact of coal development on non-governmental services is
extremely difficult to assess. This is due in large part to the
fact that the phrase "non-governmental services" encompasses such
a wide range of services from the banks to the Red Cross to the local
pub. Additionally, the variety of available services varies widely
from place to place.
The following information is based on three studies done under
the auspices of the Office of Economic Opportunity: "The Non-
Governmental Services Impact Study," prepared by Sandy McCaw and
Robert Turner (1974); a second study of the same title, prepared
by the Wyoming Office of State—Federal Relations; and "Present and
Projected Social Impact Resulting from Coal Development In Seventeen
Eastern Montana Counties," by Tom Ma1samer.
151
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Adequacy of Existing Services
Typically, the organizations providing non-governmental services
in the NGPRP area are small, with nonprofit groups almost wholly
dependent on volunteer workers for direction and administration.
The adequacy of existing services is difficult to assess. In
response to questioning, a vast majority of organizations stated.
they believe they are now meeting current demands for service
delivery in their area. However, there are at least two other
considerations: (1) How do the people of the area feel about the
adequacy of the existing services? (2) How adequate are these
services in terms of standards, such as national or State averages?
Little work has been done in this area of inquiry, but indications
are that, for the most part, the non-governmental sector exhibits
several deficiencies in many parts of the NGPRP area. It is,
however, important to note that the majority of the people in the
rural communities in the area do not place as great a demand on
non-governmental services as do those residing in the larger cities.
Existing Need for Services
Fewer than half of the organizations in the impact area see,
a need for more non-governmental services in their communities
at the present time. Most respondents that do see a need for more
services mentioned improved medical services as the most urgent
need. Other frequently mentioned service areas were housing,
consumer outlets, and youth services. In many instances, most
services are available to rural residents only in the larger towns.
152
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Because of the distances involved, some persons must travel many
miles to secure services that people in larger communities take
for granted.
In areas that have already begun to feel the impacts of
development,• the housing shortage has received the most wide-
spread concern on the part of community residents. This shortage
is not entirely coal related. Populations in these areas have
been static or declining over the past decades; consequently, there
has been little Incentive to replace obsolete housing units. The
high cost of building materials may well be another factor. Whatever
the reasons for the shortage, it must be realized that it exists,
and any minor influx of people will make the problem worse. Housing
is a roadblock to securing the other services indicated as desirable
by the residents. Service people will not move into a community
unless they can find a decent place to live. In addition, the
shortage of housing will undoubtedly cause a substantial rise In
housing costs, and the generally low wages in the service sector
may not be sufficient to cover this expense.
As it stands, the picture is bleak. Many persons interviewed
point out the housing need, but are not planning to do anything
locally. They have adopted a "wait and see" attitude.
Health care is, and long has been, a serious problem.
Probably the greatest concern is the shortage of doctors. For
example, in 1970 the ratio of medical doctors to patients in eastern
Montana was 1:1,962. This compares with a national average of
1:627 and a ratio* in Montana as a whole of 1:910. The vastness
of the Northern Great Plains Region places many people great distances
153
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPIP - 6/74
frosi »e
-------
Discussion Draft
HGPRP - 6/74
the transition period, as the service sector attenpts to expand
to accommodate growth.
Ability of Organizations to Expand
In a rapidly «»*|Mr»di«ig growth area, "front-end** resources
are commonly In short supply. It was anticipated that a survey
of non-govcrnmpnral services would reflect considerable concern
over the inpact of rapid population growth. However, the majority
of organizations now providing services in the BGPKP area are not
significantly disturbed about the pending growth. They do not
anticipate significant problems in raising the money or in acquiring
the resources needed to continue to meet the rtrmnnil for services*.
Except for banks and other financial institutions, most of the
organizations do not participate in lommwlrj planning forums and
do not have formal planning prtM*^*dur|ps that would enable fhpm to
forecast and anticipate the Impact of different kinds of growth
and development on their clients or members. Less than half of
the nonprofit organizations anticipate increasing their services in
the near future. In contrast, the vast majority of commercial and
professlomal service organizations are pi arnning to eipand in the
immediate future.
In general, the studies conducted to date reflect an optimistic
view of r*«**«*e coal-related Armlopmrnt in the BGPRP area by both
nonprofit and profit oriented in MI j^iPi'immful nl service organizations.
T««jHj»jr •!<•»« axe that there will be very little formal planning done
by either voluntary or lommrrrlil groom* to better direct or anticipate
155
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
the growth that will occur in the area. The majority of respondents
seem to feel that the laws of supply and demand will prevail in the
delivery of non-governmental services.
The extent to which the service sector can, in reality, expand
to meet any type of rapid increase in demand is questionable. Banks
and financial institutions are probably the most prepared. However,
their planning comes for the most part from head offices in larger
cities outside the local area. Local bankers did not indicate any
concern about lack of financial resources or credit to finance
expansion of local economies, but this is a very real possibility.
Other services appear to vary widely in their preparedness to
handle a rapid growth. However, this question was not really addressed
in sufficient detail to draw any solid conclusions. In addition, it
is impossible to assess from existing information the extent to which
the organisations surveyed understand the implications of the
impending growth. Variations in definitions of terms and in
information regarding local growth projections may limit the comparability
of some of the responses. Any interpretation of the results will
have to be measured against the possibility that respondents have
assigned different meanings to terms such as "growth," "impact,"
"service," "need," "demand," and "resource."
Demand for New Services
There is also the question of demand. Demands for services
In this predominantly rural area have not been very heavy to date,
and it is likely that service organizations expect this trend to
156
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
continue. However, there is considerable evidence to suggest
that with a significant influx of new residents, the demand for
services will increase out of proportion to the number of new
residents. Demands among the long-term residents of the area
have been substantially lower than those of newcomers. In addition,
many services once provided on an informal basis by members of the
community will undoubtedly have to be provided more formally as
the population expands.
Very little is known about the tastes and preferences of the
expected inmlgrants. There is some basis to suspect that newcomers
will demand different as well as more services, since many of them
will come from areas that are larger and more cosmopolitan and
provide more services than the Great Plains communities. This is
certainly an issue of great importance. Unfortunately, it is also
one which has not been adequately addressed. No one knows who
these new people will be and what they will be like.
Conclusion
In short, it is not clear just what the Impacts of coal
development on non-governmental services will be, but it is
probably safe to say that there will be some severe strains on
the system. How to alleviate these strains is likely to become
an Important issue. Should the government step in to help plan?
Or, should it provide or help provide the actual services, such as
housing and health care? What about the short-ten Impact of the
construction workers? Who will provide for them? In the long run,
answers to these and other questions will determine, in part, how
wall the communities in the NGPRP area adjust to coal development.
157
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Farther Research Needs
The work accomplished to date on non-governmental services has
been very limited in scope. Additional research is needed in several
areas before sound decisionmaking can be assured. The following
are deemed to be among the most important of these:
i. The geographic pattern of service availability should
be studied and documented.
2. People who actually receive the services should be surveyed
to determine whether their opinion of the adequacy of
services coincides with opinions expressed in the survey
of service providers.
3. More information is needed on the socio-demographic
characteristics of the inmigrant populations. As
mentioned above, it is likely that these people will
have service demands significantly different from those
of existing resident populations.
4. Other areas which have experienced large, rapid population
Influxes (such as the ABM missile sites) should be studied
to determine whether any parallels or conclusions can be
t
drawn.
5. Some attention should be given to the question of what,
if anything, governments should do to aid impacted
communities in relieving strains on non-governmental
service delivery systems.
158
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
OVERVIEW
With the advent of coal development as an issue, the Northern
Great Plains area has suddenly acquired a new importance. America
needs energy, and this region has the resources to supply it. Ultimately,
our society must face the questions of economic, social, and
environmental trade-offs associated with coal development. People
of the Northern Great Plains have some particular concerns. A
vigorous and healthy economic environment is important to their
welfare; so, too, are the characteristics of the area that originally
made it a desirable place in which to live. These people will be
vitally affected by decisions about how, for whom, and at what
external cost the area's natural resources are to be utilized.
Coal development is an essentially "human" activity in all
respects; and whatever its results, changes are really only impacts
insofar as they affect people. This is not to say that such
development will have no effect on fragile ecologic systems. However,
there are two points of note. If there were no people, there would
be no coal development, and hence no impact* Furthermore, if there
were no people to observe the effects of stirp mining and attendant
industrialisation, there would be no one to care. "Impacts" imply
that someone does care. The smoke from the electrical generating
plant is not important: the effect of that smoke on people and
their lives and perceptions is important.
The people of the Great Plains region no doubt recognise the
apparent economic opportunities of coal development. They are,
however, less .sure of their ability to determine acceptable rates
159
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
of resource developaent. Additionally, it is becoming apparent
that many feel they have no decislonmaking power. These people
fear that the region is small and unimportant, compared to the
larger forces of industry and national government. They fear
that if these 'forces wish to extract and use the coal, they can
and will to whatever extent they desire, regardless of the feelings
of the inhabitants of the area. This is an extremely sensitive
issue; people want to control what happens to them. There can be
no denying that with rapid energy resources development in the
Northern Great Plains, more'of the decisions that affect the
local people will be made outside the region, by both governments
and industry, by people who need not be responsive to local
interests or values.
Coal development presents a regional problem insofar as it
will affect localities over a wide geographic area. Nonetheless,
it la the locality—the local people and Institutions—which will
have to face this problem and resolve the issues. It is doubtful
that many of the localities in the Great Plains region are really
prepared to do this.
%
Americans probably do not know how to deal confidently with
a development of such magnitude. As a society , we have developed
a deep-rooted belief in the sanctity of growth. At the same time,
we have developed a great deal of faith in planning. We are now
at a point where we need to ask ourselves some fundamental questions:
Do we really want or need growth? If so, what type? Should we
plan? For what? For whom? By whom? According to whose standards?
160
-------
Discussion Draft
NFPRP - 6/74
Or, can we plan? The validity of the answers to these and other
questions will determine, to a large degree, the.success with
which we answer the challenges.
Finally, it oust be remembered that uncertainty is a fact of
life when dealing with people. The human organism is amazingly
complex. Any social analysis must be done with this in mind.
Such analysis seeks to add understanding and knowledge; but as
long as we deal with such a complex organism as man, we will never
know everything.
161
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
REFERENCES
I. Work Group Supporting Documents;
Available in NGPRP Public Repositories
Bickel, David, and Clark Harkel. "Western North Dakota High
School Senior Profiles," Cooperative Education Program and
Experimental College, Minot State College, Mlnot, N. Dak.
April 1974.
Abstract. A questionnaire designed to measure student attitudes
toward coal development and post-graduation plans was administered
to 1,500 randomly selected students in 28 counties in western
North Dakota. Students ranged in age from 16 to 19 and both sexes
were almost equally represented. Most students were long-term
residents of the State and their present school district, with
residency times being slightly longer for students from counties
with relatively high population. Forty-four percent of the
students were from families that receive some income from
agriculture. Of these 70 percent own, operate, and live on their
farm or ranch. Most students, 68 percent, plan to seek some form
of post-secondary education, as opposed to the 6 percent planning to
enter agriculture directly. Five of the students plan to enter
the military service and an additional 5 percent some other
occupation. Students indicated a preference for college programs
as opposed to vocational or technical training, although 80 percent
indicated that 2 years or less is the ideal time to spend in post-
secondary training. Less than 5 percent of the students or their
families were directly associated with energy industries. When
plotted on a State map, similar attitudinal configurations
characterize attitudes toward coal development, immigration into
the region, and restrictions on national use of State resources.
More negative attitudes toward coal development occur in the Little
Missouri Valley area of southwestern North Dakota, than in areas
to the north and east. Students from southwestern North Dakota
were also more inclined to question the value of immigration related
to energy development and the development of resources for utilization
outside the State.
Bureau of Indian Affairs in cooperation with the Tribes of the
Northern Plains. "Indians in the Northern Great Plains; anticipated
Socio-Economic Impacts of Coal Development," Billings, Mont. April 1974,
Abstract. This paper (1) describes population and resource base
of Indian tribes and people in Northern Great Plains, (2) projects
socio-economic Impact of coal development at two probable levels
of coal development on Crow Indian reservation in Montana, and
(3) summarizes needed action to mitigate possible disbeneflts.
163
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Bureau of Reclamation, Billings, Montana and the Center for
Interdisciplinary Studies, Mont. State Univ., Bozeman, Mont.
"The Anticipated Effects of Major Coal Development on Public
Services, Costs and Revenues in Six Selected Counties." April 1974.
Abstract. The section of the report dealing with service needs,
providers, and specific recommendations regarding service needs was
the responsibility of Don Patterson in consultation with Anne S.
Williams, both of the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies at
Montana State University. The sections dealing with population,
cost for governmental physical Infrastructure and services, govern-
ment revenues, and disparities in time and place of revenue and
service were the responsibility of Edward L. Leland with the
assistance of William E. Crosby and Derwood C. Mercer, Bureau of
Reclamation.
The report deals with the effects of three levels of coal development
on government service requirements, providers, and delivery systems
and their costs. Estimates of revenues and availability to localities,
States, and Federal Government were made. Disparities in time and
place of revenue and service are discussed.
Carnes, Sam, with H. Paul Friesema. "Urbanization and the Northern
Great Plains," Center for Urban Affairs, Northwestern Univ.,
Evanston, 111. April 1974.
Abstract. This study, based upon a review of the relevant academic
literature, attempts to identify the major impacts of industrialization
and urbanization upon the social economic, cultural and political
systems of small rural towns in the Northern Great Plains. It was
found that the specialization and differentiation of interests,
associations, and dependencies that accompany industrialization
and urbanization have major impacts upon the individual, the family,
inter-group relations, religion and the church, the community press,
crime and social disorder, local governments and their leaders,
and the economy. This report makes only comparative, "more than/less
than" kinds of statements about the various impacts, and perhaps
raises more questions than it answers.
Daisted, Norman L., F. Larry Leistritz, Thor A. Hertsgaard. "Energy
Resources Development in the Northern Great Plains: A Summary of
Economic Impacts,'* Dept. of Agr. Econ., N. Dak. State Univ., Fargo,
N. Dak. April 1974.
Abstract. The report summarizes the economic impacts of three energy
development alternatives (the NGPRP Scenarios) for the Northern
Great Plains. Economic impacts are summarized for the principal
impact areas of North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming and Nebraska. The
effects of development on employment, population and the economic
wellbeing of area residents are summarized. The impact of energy
development on agriculture also is discussed.
164
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Daisted, Norman L., and others. "Economic Impact of Alternative
Energy Development Patterns in North Dakota," Dept. of Agr. Econ.,
N. Dak. State Univ., Fargo, N. Dak. April 1974.
Abstract. The report summarizes the economic impacts associated
with the three development scenarios, provided by the National
Energy Consideration Work Group, NGPRP, as related to North Dakota.
The economic effects of development•alternatives are analyzed with
respect to changes in gross business volume, employment, population,
and personal income.
Farber, John P. and Newton, Charles G. "Anticipated Energy Resources
Development Impact on High School Youth in Converse County, Wyoming,"
Office of State Federal Relations, State of Uyo. April 1974.
Abstract. This study of 473 students in the high schools of the
towns Glenrock and Douglas attempts to identify how youth would
view the effects of coal development impact on their lives related
to the following areas: (1) leisure time; (2) jobs, career planning
and education; (3) authority; and (4) community activities. It
was found that the students generally predicted changes in their
life styles consistent with known transpositions in "boom-town"
situations. This study shows not only current resources available
to youth; it also identifies contemporary youth problems as well
as probably future resource needs and problems subsequent to impact.
French, Cecil L. "Attitudes of Johnson County, Wyoming, Residents
toward Selected Aspects of Their Environment," Lakehead Univ.,
Thunder Bay, Ont. Can. April 1974.
Abstract. A probability sample of 100 residents of Johnson County,
Wyoming were questioned regarding their attutlde toward their natural
environment and its possible utilization. The Important findings
were:
(1) Almost all, regardless of occupational category, were
preservationist minded.
(2) In order of developmental preference, tourism was
first, mining second, and logging third.
(3) Ranchers were slightly more "developmental" minded
than persons in other occupational categories.
This study seems to refute some of the assertions of major theorists
in the area of environmental and wildemism studies in that upper
unite-collar persons do not predominate in displaying greater
"preservationist" Ideology. The implications for declslonmaking
are noted.
165
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Graham, Robert. "Economic Profiles of the Northern Great Plains,"
Regional Economics Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Dept. of Coon., Wash., D.C. October 1973.
Abstract. The economic profiles show for the Northern Great Plains
and for each of its seven subreglons a detailed economic picture
covering selected years from 1950 to 2000. Included are population,
employment, per capita income and total income, with the latter shown
separately for each of 34 industries. A brief description is Included
for each area.
Institute for Social Science Research, Univ. of Mont., Missoula,
Mont. "A Comparative Case Study of the Impact of Coal Development
on the Way of Life of People in the Coal Areas of Eastern Montana
and Northeastern Wyoming," April 1974.
Abstract. The six-member research team was headed by Dr. Raymond L.
Gold, Director of the Institute. The report is an ethnographic
study of the views, thoughts, feelings, and reactions of residents
living in two selected coal areas of the Northern Great Plains,
focusing on the towns of Colstrlp and Forsyth in Montana and on
Gillette in Wyoming and their surrounding vicinities. Persons
interviewed Included ranchers and various groups of established town
residents as well as newcomers. The report seeks to present how
different groups of residents in the study area are reacting to ceal
development and what they perceive to be the differential impact
of coal development on their lives.
Lemmerman, Kathe L. "Columbus/Noonan Study," Experimental College,
Minot State College, Mlnot, N. Dak. April 1974.
Abstract. This study addresses itself to the question, "What
happens to a coal town when the mines and/or power plants close?"
Coal development and decline have played a significant role in the
North Dakota communities of Columbus and Noonan. The area has
experienced underground and strip mining, small Independent and
large-scale mine operations, mining before and after the passage
of reclamation laws, coal-generated power plant development, lignite
aggregate plant development, and mine and power plant closings.
There has been little conflict between agriculture and mining; the
two have existed in the area since its settlement. The population
profiles of the two communities differ markedly from that of the
region and the State. The coal industry in the area helped offset
the population decline caused by people leaving the farm from 1920
to 1960, and the coal Industry and power plant closing in the 1960's
in all probability caused the extensive decline after 1960. Various
segments of the communities have been affected by the scarcity of
human resources. The market and trade sectors of the two towns have
experienced extensive decline. Governmental and nongovernment services
166
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
have been adversely affected by coal mining and population decline.
There is considerable resentment toward State and Federal Government;
the residents feel government is not responsive to the needs of
small communities. However, even though the coal industry has
declined in the area, the residents have retained quite positive,
realistic attitudes toward coal development in the State and the
region.
Leholm, Arlen, F. Larry Leistritz, Thor Hertsgaard. "Local Impacts
of Energy Resources Development in the Northern Great Plains,"
Dept. of Agr. Econ., N. Dak. State Univ., Fargo, N. Dak. April 1974.
Abstract. The report summarizes progress to April 15, 1974, and
presents a work activity schedule for further study efforts. The
report is preliminary and does not reflect any results. The material
is presented in four sections: Section 1 is a physical description
of the study area. Section II describes the socio-economic character-
istics of the study area (Mercer, McLean, Dunn, and Oliver counties
of North Dakota). Section 111 relates the NGPRP development scenarios
to the study area. Section IV is a time scheduled workplan by major
study objectives.
Matson, Roger A., and Jeannette B. Studer. "Energy Resources
Development in Wyoming's Powder River Basin: An Assessment of
Potential Social and Economic Impacts," Water Resources Research
Institute, Univ. of Wyo., Laramie, Wyo. April 1974.
Abstract. This report contains population and employment pro-
jections for the Powder River Basin of Wyoming based on the speci-
fications of scenarios developed by the NGPRP National Energy
Considerations Work Group. Projections were made for the entire
Powder River Basin and then disaggregated to obtain projections
for the eight counties discussed in this report, such as income
levels, income distribution, migration levels, skill requirements
and general areas where problems may develop due to increased
energy development.
McCaw, Sandy. "The Governmental Services Impact Study of Overlapping
and Conflicting Jurisdictions in the NGPRP Impact Area," Office of
Economic Opportunity, Region VIII, Denver, Colo. April 1974.
Abstract. This report outlines the overlapping and conflicting
jurisdictions that exist in the NGPRP impact area. Information
was obtained from the Denver Office of Economic Opportunity's
participation' with the Mountain Plains Federal Regional Council in
its effort to improve the administration and management of Federal
assistance to the local and State organizations in Region VIII.
167
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
McCav, Sandy and Robert Turner. "The Non-Governmental Services
Impact Study," Office of Economic Opportunity. Region VIII, Denver,
Colo. April 1974.
Abstract. This report summarizes the findings and interpretations
of the non-governmental services impact survey conducted by the
Regional Office of Economic Opportunity in Denver, Colorado. The
survey sought responses fvom more than 1,250 profit and non-profit
organizations and agencies in the 56 county impact areas of Montana,
Wyoming and North Dakota.
Most organizations contacted by the surveyors believe that they
have sufficient Income and other resources to provide the services
for which there is a demand. Host organizations have room for
modest growth within their present physical plants, and a vast
majority of organizations believe that they are now meeting the
current demands of services they offer in their area. Some
organizations are experiencing difficulties in recruiting qualified
staff, but no organizations report cutting back on services because
of lack of either resources or staff. Most organizations indicated
that they had not "formally" planned for expansion of services;
however, a vast majority of organizations surveyed indicated that
they could expand their services in proportion to the growth of
the population, and a significant majority of these organizations
are now In the process of expanding services. Slightly less than
half the respondents found that there was an Increased need for
non-governmental services in the NGPRP area.
Melssner, Tom. "Present and Projected Social Impact Resulting from
Coal Development In Seventeen Eastern Montana Counties," Action
for Eastern Montana, Glendive, Mont. April 1974.
Abstract. This supporting document centers around its first two
recommendations listed on pages 25 and 26. These recommendations
state that (1) communities or counties should establish a "Coal
Awareness Committee" in order to facilitate public awareness and
then to plan for possible impact; (2) energy companies should be
required to prepare a Social and Economic Impact Statement in
order to allow communities time to prepare for the social impacts
of industrial expansion.
The support document is developed around the local level. A
discussion of psychological effects of crowding is considered. The
importance of coordination and cooperation is stressed.
168
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Polzin, Paul E. "Projections of Economic Development Associated
with Coal-Related Activity in Montana," Bureau of Business and
Economic Research, Univ. of Mont., Missoula, Mont. Jan. 1974.
Abstract. This study begins with background data concerning
population, employment, and income for current residents in a
'seven-county area in southeastern Montana. Indians, the major
racial minority, are also examined. The three scenarios prepared
by NGPRP were then used to project the economic changes which will
take place resulting from coal-related employment. Specific pro-
jections for population, employment (direct and indirect), income,
and migration were prepared for 1980, 1985, and 2000, under each
scenario. Given these projections, several issues (such as economic
stability and income distribution) are discussed. There is also
a short section describing methodology.
South Dakota Planning Bureau. "Some Impacts on South Dakota of
Coal-Related Development in the Northern Great Plains," State
Planning Bureau, Pierre, S, Dak. April 1974.
Abstract. This brief paper identifies concerns to the State of
South Dakota of both potential "primary" impacts from strip mining
in Corson, Dewey, Harding and Perkins Counties, and more importantly
the "secondary" or second-round impacts on South Dakota which may
result from coal related development occurring in Wyoming, North
Dakota, and Montana.
Particularly, it addresses potential effects surrounding siting
of energy conversion facilities, downwind atmospheric effects of
neighboring facilities on the Black Hills area, downstream effects
on both water quality and water quantity from adjoining States,
effects oa ground water and ground water recharge areas in South
Dakota resulting from mining Madison Formation ground water, effects
of increased recreation pressure on the Black Hills, regional economic
effects on the Rapid City trade area, and potential effects from
the routing of transmission lines, gas pipelines, slurry pipelines
or unit trains across South Dakota. While some regional baseline
data are presented, it was not possible to address these secondary
impacts analytically at this time as data on primary Impacts on
North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana are only presently becoming
available.
Twomey, James P., and Peter G. Kuh. "Governmental Programs,
Resources and Regulatory Powers Available to Assist Localities
During Coal Development," U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development,
Region VIII, Denver, Colo. April 1974.
169
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Abstract. This report was prepared under Contract (H-3678) to the
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Region VIII
office. For purposes of this study the authors concentrated on
seven counties in Montana, eight in Wyoming, ten in North Dakota,
eight in South Dakota and three in Nebraska.
Based on local visits, interviews, and available literature, the
authors delineated two types of people in the coal development
areas and programs to assist them. .These people are: (1) long-
time residents of the area, and (2) newcomers employed during the
construction phase or permanently employed in coal development
activities. The report breaks out 17 problems related to the
first group, and 12 for the second. For each problem, the situation
is described, one or more recommendations listed and a rough estimate
made of costs and revenues related to the recommendations.
White, Warren. "Impacts of Northern Great Plains Coal Related
Development on Nebraska," State Office of Planning and Programming,
Lincoln, Nebr. April 1974.
Abstract. The report summarizes the impacts of thermal electric
generating developments in a three county area in west central
Nebraska. The report is preliminary and does not reflect any
results. Material is presented in four sections:
Section L. Historic base line data.
Section 2. Describes impacts associated with Scenario 1
impact levels.
Section 3. Estimates the impacts of Scenarios 2 and 3
development levels.
Section 4. A more recent appraisal of accelerated electrical
generated developments based upon Industry time
tables and development levels.
II. Other References
Bailey, Robert, Coordinator, Northern Cheyenne Research Project,
correspondence to Frank H. Osterhoudt. April 1974.
Bowes, John, and Keith R. Stamnt. "Communication during Rapid
Development of Energy Resources: A coorlentation Analysis."
Paper presented to the 1974 meeting of the International Communication
Association. Grand Forks: Univ. of N. Dak., Communication
Research Center. April 1974.
170
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
Callahan, John C., and Jacqueline 6. Callahan. "Effects of Strip
Mining and Technological Change on Communities and Natural
Resources in Indiana's Coal Mining Region." Research Bull. No. 871.
Lafayette, Ind.: Purdue Univ., Agr. Exp. Sta. Jan. 1971.
Council on Economic Priorities. "Leased and Lost: A Study of
Public and Indian Coal Leasing in the West," Economic Priorities
Report, Vol, 5, No. 2. 1974.
Bureau of Indian Affairs. "Crow Ceded Area Coal Lease Westmoreland
Resources Mining Proposal." Billings, Mont., Planning Support
Group. (Final Environmental Impact Statement.) Jan. 1974.
Mineral Resources Work Group, NGPRP, 1974.
National Energy Considerations Work Group, NGPRP, 1974.
Nellis, Lee. "What Does Energy Development Mean for Wyoming? A
Community Study at Hanna, Wyoming." Laramie: Univ. of Wyo.,
Office of Special Projects.
Nez, Georga, and Douglas L. Mutter. "State Land Use Legislation
Reconsidered." Regional Planning Council, Federation of Rocky
Mountain States, Sept. 1973.
Statement from the Northern Cheyenne Landowners Association,
Lame Deer, Mont., Presented at hearings held by U.S. Senator
from Mont., Lee Metcalf, in Billings, Mont. April 1974.
Surface Resources Work Group, NGPRP, 1974.
Toffler, Alvin. "Future Shock." New York: Bantam Books. 1970.
U.S. Department of Commerce, "Statistical Abstract of the
United States." 1972.
U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Public
Health Service, "Health Resources Statistics. Health Manpower
and Health Facilities, 1969." Gov. Print. Off., Wash., D.C.
171
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
APPENDIX
I. Listing of Study Area Counties, by States
All counties—Socio-Economic and Cultural Aspects Work Group Study
area.
Designated**—Case study counties, Bureau of Reclamation (1974);
analysis of government revenues and services.
Designated* or **—Areas called Principal Impact Areas or Impact
Areas
Montana
**1. Big Horn
2. Carter
*3. Custer
4. Daniels
5. Dawson
6. Fallon
7. Garficld
8. Golden Valley
9. NcCone
*10. Musselshell
*11. Powder River
12. Prairie
13. Richland
14. Roosevelt
**1S. Rosebud
16. Sheridan
*17. Treasure
18. Valley
19. Wibaux
20. Yellowstone
Nebraska
1. Antelope
2. Banner
3. Blaine
4. Box Butte
5. Boyd
6. Brown
7. Buffalo
8. Cass
9. Cherry
10. Cheyenne
11. Coifax
12. Cuming
13.
14.
15.
*16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
*26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
*31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
Custer
Dakota
Dawes
Dawson
Deuel
Dodge
Douglas
Garden
Grant
Hall
Hamilton
Holt
Hooker
Keith
Keya Paha
Kimball
Knox
Lancaster
Lincoln
Madison
Merrick
Morrlll
Perkins
Pierce
Platte
Rock
Sarpy
Saunders
Scotts Bluff
Seward
Sheridan
Sherman
Slox
Stanton
Thomas
48.
49.
50.
51.
Thurston
Washington
Wayne
York
North Dakota
*1.
*2.
3.
*4.
5.
*6.
7.
*8.
*9.
no.
*11.
*12.
*13.
14.
15.
*16.
**17.
*18.
19.
**20.
21.
22.
*23.
*24.
*25.
*26.
27.
28.
Adams
Billings
Bottlneau
Bowman
Burke
Burleigh
Divide
Dunn
Emmons
Golden Valley
Grant
Hettinger
Kldder
McHenry
McKenzie
McLean
Mercer
Morton
Mount rail
Oliver
Pierce
Renville
Sheridan
Sioux
Slope
Stark
Ward
Williams
172
-------
Discussion Draft
NGPRP - 6/74
South Dakota
1. Bennett 14. Washabaugh
2. Butte 15. Zlebach
3. Coraon
4. Custcr Wyoming
5. Dewey
6. Fall River **1. Campbell
7. Harding *2. Converse
8. Jackson *3. Crook
9. Lawrence *4. Johnson
10. Meade *5. Natrona
11. Pennington *6. Niobrara
12. Perkins **7. Sheridan
13. Shannon *8. Weston
II. Minority Reports
The following are exact copies of minority reports as they were
submitted. All organizations associated with Work Group F between
April 1973 and June 1974 were contacted and given the opportunity
to submit minority reports or comments relating to this draft of
the work group report. The only criteria for inclusion of a
minority report below was that it must have been submitted by
an organisation.
1. Northern Cheyenne Research Project, June 11, 1974
2. Institute for Social Science Research, July 9, 1974
173
-------
Northern Cheyenne Research Project
Lame Deer, Montana 59043
Phone (406) 477-6414
June 11, 197*»
Be: Socio-economic and Cultural Aspects of Potential Coal Development in
the Northern Qreat Plains • Report of Work Group F - May 197*»
Northern Qreat Plains Resource Program
To Whom it may Concern:
Persons using this report or any previous or subsequent drafts and
reports are highly cautioned to withhold judgement upon the Northern Chey-
enne Nation regarding its actives, intellect, unity, desires and potential
for growth in knowledge and ability to compete with vested interests in
respect to cc-O. development whether in litigation, land use planning,
financial Batters and Boat important issues of principle and Morality
which affect the health and well-being of Cheyenne people and fellow
united States Citizens.
fear is here expressed that this report and others will fall into
the hands of people who in their consuming haste to turn the dollar
whether by speculative holdings* environsjental comment or wasteful ex-
ploitation because of increased stockholder earnings pressure, will
employ these incomplete, inconclusive, incoherent facts and-tigurea
assuaptives and generalizations in justification for overruling the
Northern Cheyenne Nation due to the apathetic manner in which we are lumped
with other TmHan and non-Indian entities in this and other reports of
the Northern Qreat Plains Resource Project.
The last offering of this reviewer dwelled briefly on the lack of
comparative information on deposits, locations, evaluation, land base
and plant and mine siting activity and projections. No significant amount
of coherent information has been added to clarify these points.
La reviewer was hard pressed to obtain a copy of the Mineral Work
Group Study Report in order to further verify this glaring point of
departure from reality. When a copy was obtained it did not contain
maps to which the text referred. These maps would point up the urgent
need of more comprehensive work em the Northern Cheyenne Reservation.
far above the comments utilised which concerned the Grow Nation only
but alluded to all tribes supposedly involved.
Another area which was negxected to an alarming degree was in regard
to the ftpidemology that Industrial pollution engenders. E.G. two interns
and one paramedic handled an outpatient case load for the Northern Chey-
enne of 19*000 during F T 12.
174
-------
This is one indicator towards the general health and longevity
pattern which is approximately one-half of the national average.
Add air and water pollution to this not only from industry but from
the influx population without significantly upgrading Indian health
factors and you could have an outbreak which would decimate our
population much akin to but more rapidly than the problems which beset
Japan with the advent of heavy industrialization, due to the pollution dis-
persion factors inherent to landlocked areas.
Currently our forest is the largest producer of income and employ-
ment affecting the most people. According to a report for the U. S. Efcvir-
onmental Protection Agency in April of 1971 by the Air Pollution Con-
trol Offioce Research triangle Park, North Carolina Publication
AFTD - 0$56 Section 1, page 7 paragraph *f, "Since many of the symptoms
exhibited by the affected trees were characteristic: of sulpher dioxide
fumigations and since damage was seemingly greater at locations nearer
the Mt. Storm Power Station, it seemed logical to conclude that the
station caused at least part of the damage." Can we expect this to
happen on the Northern Cheyenne Reservation?. Can this type of research
be applied to us?
To conclude in historical perspective, is this the same type of
report that was sent back to Washington, D.C. by General George Armstong
Ouster concerning the Gold in the Black Hills which caused the Cheyenne
people such greif one hundred years ago?
BUI Parker
Northern Cheyenne Research
Lame Deer, M nt.
o
175
-------
7/9/74
Minority Report on a Comparative Case Study;
An Empirical Approach
Prepared by
Institute for Social Science Research
University of Montana
Missoula, Montana
The following is a summary of the views, thoughts, feelings,
and reactions of people living in the coal areas of eastern
Montana and northeastern Wyoming regarding the impact which
coal development is having on these residents' way of life.
The ethnographic method used in this research does not seek
to evaluate why such views of and reactions to development are
held nor to verify that reported difficulties and situations
have statistical substantiation; rather, it is concerned with
verifying that what area informants report they believe or feel
is consistent with what other locals generally regard as social
fact. The following paragraphs summarize the issues involved
from the points of view of all known groups of residents in
the study area.
This summary is based upon three hundred intensive inter-
views with carefully selected informants from Colstrip and
Forsyth, Montana, including the Decker-Birney-Ashland area;
from Gillette, Wyoming; and, to a much smaller extent, from
Stanton, North Dakota. Interviews were conducted from October
1973 through May 1974 using « sociological sampling approach,
which enlists the help of informants in identifying and locating
176
-------
persons locally thought to be good representatives of various
groups and points of view of interest to the research. The
research focused upon the views and reactions of both land-
owners and townspeople in the study communities and surrounding
vicinities. The latter informants represent * variety of
occupations and professions, including government officials,
merchants, store employees, land brokers, financiers, health
professionals, welfare workers, students, educators, laborers,
engineers, housewives, clergymen, tribal representatives, law
enforcement personnel, senior citizens, newsmen, and lawyers.
Aside from the schools, however, the biggest social impact to
date was found to concern ranchers.
Changes in the way of life of residents in the coal areas
of eastern Montana are already taking place. These changes
include shifts in the selection of friends, strains in com-
municating with friends and neighbors of longstanding, the
making of social class alignments previously considered unim-
portant, a shift in the established power structure from the
ranchers to the new mining industrialists, the need to live
with constant and increased uncertainties for which planning
is virtually impossible, a keen interest on the part of some
merchants and businessmen in immediate monetary gain, the need
to accommodate to the invasion and requirements of newcomers
who subscribe to foreign life-styles and value systems, and
loss of * sense of community. The same pressures of rapid
growth are also being felt in Gillette, but its background
177
-------
and orientation are affording this city the opportunity to
cope with these exigencies with less strain. At present,
coal development appears to be having much less effect on the
residents' way of life here than it is in the two Montana
towns, primarily because Gillette is already somewhat indus-
trialized from relatively recent oil activity.
Gillette, lacks the sense of community which until recently
has always been good in Colstrip and Forsyth. Now, however,
the latters* sense of community is definitely breaking down,
especially in Colstrip where the proportion of newcomers to
established residents is greatest. The sudden intlux of new-
comers throughout the area is affecting every quarter of
established town life. Law enforcement, health care services,
the churches, and especially the schools are feeling the pres-
sures of increased population. Locals in all three towns are
fearful of rising taxes to pay for the expanding and immediate
2
social needs created by development. Residents are also
Gillette's sense of community changed with the influx of
oil people. Also, tending to have bigger, more isolated ranches
and thus to be more self-sufficient, Wyoming ranchers have over
the years been less given to neighboring and to developing inter
dependencies of the type seen in and among family owned and
operated ranches of Montana.
2
Although there will be considerable tax money forthcoming
from the extraction of coal, a lag of two or three years is
anticipated before the bulk of this money will be available
locally. Even so, some fear that the new demands for increased
governmental, educational, and social services may exceed the
new monetary supply; thus coal development may not pay its own
way after all. Speaking of the school situation, one informant
commented:
178
-------
experiencing that friends and neighbors need each other less
and less as the arrival of various new goods and services is
making people less dependent on their neighbors and on being
neighborly. It seems evident that coal development will
severely threaten the viability of the ranching culture wher-
ever mining (or related energy development activities) occurs
because of the strains it creates and the tactics it employs.
Coal and power companies have put landowners in the
position of playing unfamiliar roles, especially in Montana
where little or no industrialization of rural areas has
occurred. Ranchers are poorly prepared to dicker and tend to
get taken. They use nonadversarial values in negotiating,
whereas companies are playing adversarial roles with great
facility. Ranchers, who for the most part view the corpora-
tions as aaoral, cold-blooded, and motivated more by profit
than anything else, are at « great disadvantage in dealing
with the companies, which have better information, trained
and experienced staffs, and an operational ethic suited to
treating landowners as exploitable natives.
Mining companies make fools of us. They always lie
about what they're intending to do and how much of
if they intend to do. They are sneaky, deceptive,
and so on. They get you to sign easements through
lying and then it's too late to get a fair deal.
The percent of net proceeds tax paid the county has been
reduced, with the balance going into the state general
fund. Property taxes are paid and then redistributed on
the basis of population for equalized school foundation
funding. Consequently, no so-called "impact" money is
made available to the affected counties.
179
-------
Ranchers have no established information channels in which
they can full/ trust and believe. Too, ranchers persist in
looking at land propositions mainly or entirely in an agri-
cultural rather than industrial .frame of reference, putting
themselves in a very vulnerable position in negotiations.
Companies take advantage of their knowledge that ranchers
tend not to discuss land negotiations with each other because
the latter are such go-it-aloners, reflecting the Western
traditions of not openly passing judgment on how neighbors
manage their land and cattle, of not discussing details of
personal business matters with each other, and of not imposing
one's views on others. Divide-and-conquer tactics, pincer
movements, and the like can thus readily be used on ranchers,
•
whose highly successful adaptation to the special demands of
raising cattle in the West has left them very vulnerable to
industrial or comparable socioeconomic interventions which
can be coped with* only through being capable of managing
<
tendencies toward massive and rapid life-style changes.
•
In Wyoming, ranchers had already begun to develop a
detachment from their land before the oil boom there occurred.
Ranches were big, had employees, and were businesses which
were very demanding and not always financially productive;
oil lease money brought a new dimension to the alienation from
the land which had already started. Land ties were further
shaken by oil and are now in danger of being entirely severed
by coal. Unlike in Montana, where love of the land is still
180
-------
6
widespread and evident and where people want to hold on to
these ties, love of the land here is in process of becoming
a thing of the past.
Coal development does not constitute a burning issue for
most old-time townspeople interviewed in Forsyth and Gillette.
Either their lives are not directly affected by it or what ill
effects they do anticipate, such as air pollution, are not
feared to grow to an intolerable magnitude. For the most part
locals are happy with the economic benefits which have accom-
panied development and do not feel that their way of life has
changed all that much--nor is it expected to unless the pop-
ulation influx really becomes huge, which to date it has not.
Host of us would not want our way of life to change
very much. If there is a large expansion, it could
seriously afFeet us. The effect so far is not very
great.
Life is pretty much as it has been--same old friends
[and social circles].
Locals are concerned about obtaining an adequate number of pro-
fessionals, particularly physicians and dentists; maintaining
a. school system whose quality of instruction will not be eroded
in the face of rapidly increasing numbers of new students; and,
especially in Montana, safeguarding the area water supply,
which is widely feared to be inadequate for meeting projected
demands. With the exception of increased prices and taxes,
which have created a special hardship for those on fixed
One Montana rancher commented, "The very best that
industrialization can offer is some extra money, which is too
bad because, for people like me, land guarantees happiness,
dollars don't."
181
-------
incomes, the social impact on townspeople so far has not been
particularly unpalatable. Second thoughts about development.
are growing, however. "Where will development stop?" and
"We are paying for our own destruction!" were comments often
voiced as informants considered the costs and pressures attend-
ing development.
For the most part, newcomers have not been accepted into
the established social structure. Both they and locals tend
to stay apart because of their differing values, interests,
and commitments. As one informant viewed the situation,
"Development always brings in a lot of riffraff." Newcomers
who have common interests get together among themselves, and
some have managed to make friends with locals and become
accepted.. Social life for most newcomers at Colstrip is
characterized by a great deal of boredom, simply because there
is so little for strangers to do in a small town, especially
when one has no private land requiring attention. The lack
of housing available and of land to buy is widespread through-
out the study area, making living conditions difficult for most
newcomers, who find themselves with virtually no alternative
to crowded trailer parks or camp sites. There is little
privacy or neighboring. They are situated like urban tourists
in an unfamiliar rural world, with many resentful of local
attitudes toward them:
The locals resent our not paying taxes. Well, they
won't let us have any land to have a house on which
to pay taxes 1
182
-------
8
Planning for the overall impact of coal development has
been difficult in most instances, especially in Montana where
specific projections of future industrial activity and pop-
ulation growth are evidently not available or have not been
made public. There is widespread receptivity to coal devel-
opment in the Gillette area but not so much so in the Montana
towns, which have much less interest in becoming industrialized
communities and where a much smaller number of newcomers is
4
expected to stay for an extended perio'd of time. Gillette
is being favored with * wide variety of new people who have
diverse interests, commitments, and skills, whereas most of
the new residents in Montana are presently engaged in con-
struction work which will be of » relatively short duration.
People in Gillette for the most part have already accepted
industrial development as the emerging dominant economic mode.
They have, on the whole, profited from oil development while
experiencing minimal damage to land surface. Although the
life-styles for many have changed drastically since the begin-
ning of the oil boom, the activity has now leveled out and
people are saying, "We handled it and we have benefited from
it." Coal development is seen by many as similar to oil
development except that it will be less sporadic and over-
whelming and it will be more controlled. Also, Wyoming land-
It has been reported that the number of newcomers at
Colstrip will drop from 1,500 to 150 when construction ends
and plant operation begins (Billings Gazette, 17 March 1974).
Of the 83 who will be manning plants one anJ two, 20 have
already arrived (as of April 30, 1974).
185
-------
9
owners feel they are now somewhat experienced in leasing;
handling it or the sale of their property is not as threat-
ening or discouraging as it is for Montana ranchers. As a
group, the latter are much less favorably inclined toward
development than are their Wyoming and North Dakota counter-
parts, who are more apt to desire the economic benefits to be
gained even in the face of the "people pollution" and the
changes in life-style which would accompany projected, large-
scale industrialization. As such, it would seem that any
further development should be limited to the clearly receptive
parts of North Dakota and Wyoming until the impact of pres-
ently authorized activity in the study area is known.
Some informants have noted that power companies nation-
wide have been quick to ask for increases in rates to offset
the recent trend in reduced power consumption, confirming
their suspicions that the energy "demands" the companies have
been citing as reason to develop Western coal are more created
than real and are an excuse to seek more profits rather than
to alleviate a true crisis situation. It seems that while
the public is being asked to sacrifice and conserve energy,
the companies consider that they should be exempted from
bearing any part of the hardship, least of all through reduced
earnings. Also, because so much ox the energy to be generated
through coal development will be going to people on the West
It is the researchers' observation that few realize what
all-out development really entails. Most in the study area
would accept limited strip mining activity.
1B4
-------
10
Coast and in the East and Midwest, most interviewees feel
that these people are saying that their desires and values
are superior to those of persons whose life-styles are
threatened by coal development. There are enormous social
costs in process of being paid by the comparatively few people
ranching and farming in the coal areas of the Northern Great
Plains. It appears to many informants that residents else-
where in the nation apparently consider these costs trivial
compared to the social benefits the latter will receive from
the energy production activities here and that the present
national energy shortage is being used as an excuse to
. . . rip up our land in order to rip off the
country's coal. There is no good, excuse for that
kind of destruction and larceny--yes, larceny
because they are about to steal the country blind
while making everybody think they are some kind
of heroes. And while they foolishly use up this
nonrenewable resource for manufacturing electricity
and such, they will destroy the productivity of
our land for God knows how many decades. The damn
fools who think that coal will be a tax bonanza to
the county or the state had better ask where the
tax money is going to come from after this land is
made worthless.
Regardless of the reason, these activities have created a
constantly changing situation which has generated pervasive
and oppressive feelings of uncertainty and vulnerability
throughout the study region; and the effects are being felt
in different ways by the many different groups residing in
the study communities, each of which has its own distinct
problems and concerns in coping with the uncertainties and
insecurities associated with rapid industrialization.
-------
The decision to continue to develop the energy resources
of the Northern Great Plains will ultimately be political.
Auspitz and Brown write:
Partisan rhetoric does not make the fine distinctions
of academia or adhere to the hard quantitative stan-
dards of business. But the fact is that the most
basic questions of democracy will always be crude and
qualitative. They boil down to simple questions of
the speed of change, the degree of centralization,
the distribution of the tax burden, and the priority
of broad national purposes. These questions can be
subjected to very sophisticated analyses but ulti-
mately they involve brute choices ...
It is the authors' intent that the qualitative research
presented in their report and summarized here will assist
those who are now and will be involved in decisions which
will so fatefully affect this part of the nation, those who
are charged with planning for and dealing with the multi-
farious effects of these decisions, and those whose lives
and life-styles will be changed as a result of coal-related
industrial growth and development.
J. L. Auspitz and C. W. Brown, Jr., "What's Wrong with
Politics.*9 Harper's Magazine 248, no. 1488 (May 1974): 61.
18*
------- |