EPA 560/4-84-002
May 1984
TOXICS '95: OUTLOOK OF FACTORS AND TRENDS FOR
TOXIC CHEMICALS
by
Vary T. Coates
Lisa Heinz
Joseph Coates
Tracie Monk
Contract No. 68-01-6287
Project Officers
Ellen Selonick Berick
George Wirth
Economics and Technology Division
Office of Toxic Substances
Washington, DC 20460
OFFICE OF PESTICIDES AND TOXIC SUBSTANCES
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, DC 20460
-------
DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared under contract to an agency of
the United States Government. Neither the United States
Government nor any of its employees, contractors, subcontractors,
nor their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or
assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third
party's use or the results of such use of any information,
apparatus, product, or process disclosed in this report, or
represents that its use by'such third party would not infringe
on privately owned rights.
Publication of the data in this document does not signify
that the contents necessarily reflect 'the joint or separate views
and policies of each sponsoring agency. Mention of trade names
or commercial products .does not constitute endorsement or recom-
mendation for use.
-------
PREFACE
The Toxic Substances Control Act 1s broad legislation
covering Immense and complex environmental and economic Issues.
Congress charged the Office of Toxic Substances (OTS) with not
unduly Impeding technological Innovation while fulfilling the
primary purpose of the Act, assuring that innovation and commerce
in chemicals do not present an unreasonable risk of injury to
health or the environment. To do this difficult task well,
OTS needs to know more about the likely direction of techno-
logical innovation 1n the chemical industry, and of. the environ-
mental and policy issues that it will face in the next
decade.
This work was undertaken to assist OTS'in identifying the
factors and trends that may shape the next decade of toxic
substances control. By attempting to anticipate what the next
ten years may bring, OTS increases its opportunity to deal
effectively with the problems and to use its resources efficiently.
Chapters 1 and 2 of this report may be read as an Executive
Summary. Chapters 3-5 are expanded information.
The results of the study may be used by OTS staff to change
priorities, or the way 1n which OTS coordinates with other agencies,
or to suggest further research on particular topics. However, the
primary point is to assist in the long-term policy and budget
planning for the office.
The work reported herein is principally the responsibility of
Vary T. Coates, Ph.D., Lisa Heinz, Joseph F. Coates, and Trade
Monk. Additional support was provided by Henry H. Hitchcock. The
-------
physical preparation of the document was under the supervision of
Beverly Goldberg with the assistance of Bernice Mann, Ann Webber,
Diana Clark, Flora Riemer, Maureen Jones, and Elijah Merritt.
At the Office of Toxic Substances, our Project Managers were,
first, Ellen Selonick, and later George Wirth. We have all enjoyed
their guidance, assistance, and support.
J. F. Coates, Inc., a futures research and policy analysis
firm, carried out this project as subcontractor to ICF, Inc.,
Washington, D.C. We thank Joe Kirk of ICF for his cooperation
and support during the project.
This report was produced under Subcontract EPA 22-12,
ICF Contract No. 68-01-6287. The opinions, conclusions, findings,
and recommendations are those of the authors and do not neces-
sarily reflect the opinions of ICF, Inc., or of the Office of
Toxic Substances.
ii
-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE i
TABLE OF CONTENTS.. iii
CHAPTER 1- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION, FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS 1
Findings and Conclusions 4
Imp!ications far OTS/EPA 11
CHAPTER 2
SCENARIOS OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, 1995 17
Scenario 1 - RAPID EVOLUTION 20
Scenario 2 - MULTIDIMENSIONAL CHANGE 26
Scenario 3 - STABILITY 32
CHAPTER 3 . - '
THE CHANGING PATTERNS OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 37
A1. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 37
1. The Importance of the Chemical Industry
to the U.S. Economy 37
2. The Chemical Industry and World Trade 42
Developed Nations 45
B. THE DOMESTIC CHEMICAL INDUSTRY 46
1. Industry Strategies 46
Production 47
Finance 48
Employment 48
R&D 49
Pilot Plants and Scale-Up 50
2. Si?e and Location 51
3. Product Trends 53
Petrochemi ca 1 s 53
Other Organic Chemicals 53
Agricultural Chemicals 54
Drugs 54
Telematics 55
iii
-------
C. CHANGES IN CHEMICAL FEEDSTOCKS, ENERGY
USE, AND WASTE MANAGEMENT 57
1. Feedstocks and Energy 57
2. Waste Management Problems and Opportunities... 64
The Scope of the Problem 64
Technological Options 69
Management Patterns 72
Invisible Wastes 73
D. RISK MANAGEMENT ' 73
1. Industry and Risk Reduction 73
2. Genetic Screening 79
3. Security Issues: Sabotage and Terrorism 80
4. Insurance . 81
CHAPTER 4
SOCIAL AND POLITICAL TRENDS AFFECTING
PRODUCTION AND REGULATION OF CHEMICALS 85
A. LONG-RANGE SOCIETAL TRENDS 85
1. Demographic Trends 86
2. International Trends 90
3. Economic Conditions 91
B. POLITICAL TRENDS 1984-1995 93
1. The Continuing Growth of an
Environmental Coalition 93
Environmental Activism and
Emerging Political Alliances. , 96
2. Risk Management 99
3. Federal Legislation 101
4. Federal'Regulations 106
5. The States and Toxic Chemicals 110
6. Organized Crime 116
7. Litigation 117
8. The Developing Issues of Liability
and Victim Compensation 118
9. Environmental Mediation 121
-------
Page
10, International Pressures 123
11. U.S. Export Policy and Toxic Chemicals 125
12. Right to Know 126
13. Computers and Telecommunications 129
14. The Media as Catalyst 130
C. SOURCES OF INCREASED ALARM OVER
TOXIC SUBSTANCES, 1984-1995 130
1. Groundwater Contamination:
An Inevitable Political Issue 131
2. Transport of Toxic Chemicals 136
3. Widespread Contamination from Disruption
of Old Repositories of Toxics 140
4. Acid Precipitation 142
0. A SUMMARY OF EMERGING, NEAR-TERM POLITICAL
ISSUES AFFECTING THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES 145
CHAPTER 5
FRONTIERS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY./. 147
A. CHEMICALS, MAN, AND ENVIRONMENT:
TESTING AND MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES 148
1. Chemical Analysis, Toxicology
and Risk Assessment 148
2. Analytical Chemistry: Pushing
the Limits of Sensitivity 152
3. Toxicity Testing 154
4. Telematics-Based Technologies 157
Structure Activity Relationships 157
Biosensors 159
5. Chemical Mixtures:
Synergy and Antagonism 159
6. Institutions 160
7. Epidemiology 161
Epidemiological Techniques 163
8. Environmental Technology 164
-------
Page
B. PRIORITY SETTING 168
1. Defining Hazard 168
2. The Need to Set Priorities ...... 169
3. New Health Concerns 172
Aging.. . 172
' Birth Defects 174
4. Exposure, Environment, and Risk:
New Sources of Concern 176
Natural Versus Man-Made Hazards 176
Pervasive Environmental Contaminants 176
Indoor Air Pollution 177
C. TRENDS IN MATERIALS AND PRODUCTS 177
1. Metals and Alloys 178
2. Surface Science and Catalysis 178
3. Polymers, Plastics, and Synthetic Rubbers 179
4. Ceramics and Other Inorganic Materials 179
5. Composites 179
6. Telematics-Related Materials 180
7. Energy-Related Materials 181
Enhanced Oil Recovery 182
Batteri es 182
Photovoltaics 182
8. Agricultural Chemicals 184
D. TELEMATICS (TELECOMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTERS,
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES) 185
E. BIOTECHNOLOGY AND TOXIC SUBSTANCES 188
REFERENCES 193
APPENDIX: LIST OF WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVIEWEES... A-l
EXHIBITS:
1. Scenarios and Scenario Variables 18
2. Materials and Product Flow of Chemical Industry.. 38
3. United States Trade Balance in Chemicals 39
4. Feedstock Security Position of Some Leading
Chemical Firms 50
-------
5. Biotechnology Activities of Leading U.S. Chemical
Producers 62
6. Quoted Prices for Major Hazardous Waste Firms in 1981.. 67
7. Waste Management: Soundness and Methods 70
8. Changes in Industry Waste Disposal- Procedures 72
9. Industry Chemical Hazard Assessment Programs 74
10. Industry Reported Changes in Testing Programs: A CMA
Survey 76
11. Chemical Industry Survey 1981 Toxicity Testing Programs
Mean and Total Responses 77
12. Selected Occupational Cancers 78
13. Where the Securi ty Money Goes 80
14. Public Perception of Environmental Laws and Regulations,
1973 -1981 95
15. Legislative Authorities Affecting the Life Cycle of a
Chemi cal 107
16. Total Toxic's Related Bills Passed 1960-83 113
17. Totals: Introductions vs. Bills Enacted 1978-83 113
18. Use of Groundwater 132
19. Reported Incidents of Groundwater Contamination 134
20. Incidents By Mode and Reporting Year 137
21. Accidents Involving Toxic Chemicals: Representative
Incidents 138
22. Analysis of Toxic Substances 151
23. Toxicity Test Effort 155
24. Quality Ratings of Toxicity Tests Done on 100 Substances:
a National Research Council Study.... 156
25. Process for Setting Testing Priorities 170
26. Proposed Scoring Factors for EPA Evaluation of Priority
Chemicals Under TSCA 171
27. A Possible Ranking of Specific Chemically-Induced Health
Effects in Humans 173
28. Trends in U.S. Consumption of Plastics and Key Metals,
1960-1985 179
29. Burgeoning Uses of Chemicals and Plastics in
Electronics.,. 181
30. Biomedical Telematics Instruments 186
vii
-------
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION, FINDINGS, AND CONCLUSIONS
Chapters 1 and 2 of this report constitute an
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY of the report.
Chapter 1 summarizes this study of the outlook
for regulation of chemicals in the environment
and highlights findings and conclusions, and
the implications for OTS.
Chapter 2 presents alternative scenarios for
the future of the U.S. chemical industry and
regulatory process.
The Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976 empowered the
Federal government to regulate and control the production
and use of chemicals that will or may present an unreasonable
risk of injury to health or to the environment. Congress also
directed that the Environmental Protection Agency which administers
this broad mandate through its Office of Toxic Substances (OTS),
shall not "unduly impede technological innovation" in the chemical
industry, which is recognized as important .to the economic life of
the nation.
There is no simple or complex formula for determining what
constitutes unreasonable risk. Nor is there a ready consensus as
to what regulatory strategies' might or might not unduly impede
technological innovation. These determinations must be made on a
case-by-case basis and in a context of uncertainty about the future
evolution and behavior of the chemical industry. The industry is,
and will continue to be, responding and adapting to complex changes
in its economic environment, to increasing competition in world
markets, and to continuing advances in science and technology. The
industry also responds to pressures that arise from public concerns
and public values, and to a broad range of other national policies
ana objectives.
-------
-2-
OTS, to better guide the development and implementation of its
program objectives and to develop more cost-effective means of
achieving industry compliance with Federal policies, tries to
anticipate and understand the forces acting on the chemical
industry and their implications for effective control of the risks
associated with production and use of chemicals in our society.
As an early step in improving its foresight capability, OTS
commissioned this broadly exploratory study to provide a futures
perspective on the problems of toxic substances control over the
next dozen years 1983-1995. This report is to be used by OTS
staff in reassessing and evaluating OTS priorities and opportunities
for action, the way OTS coordinates with other EPA programs, state
governments, agencies in other nations, and other Federal agenices,
and EPA needs for further research and analysis of unfolding develop-
ments. The twelve-year horizon, while arbitrary, does represent a
reasonable futures perspective for addressing toxic chemical concerns
because it takes about that long for a new generation of chemicals to be
broadly distributed and have significant economic impact.
This study was designed to identify and consider the inter-
actions of trends .affecting the nation in general and thus both
the chemical industry and public expectations about its role and
activities. In particular the study was to consider:
business and economic trends, including shifts in
business strategy and likely changes in international
trade patterns;
t scientific and technological trends, including areas
where advances in knowledge can be expected that will
influence or create public health concerns, and areas
ripe for innovation such as alternative chemical feed-
stocks or waste disposal technologies;
t political trends, covering the general evolution of
public attitudes, political responses, and the evolution
of institutions, laws, and regulations; and
broad social, demographic, and lifestyle trends.
-------
-3-
Having surveyed this broad range of evolutionary and
revolutionary trends and potentialities, the study was to
suggest two or three scenarios that would provide alternative
futures for the U.S. chemical industry. These scenarios
presented in Chapter 2, it should be stressed, are not predictions
or forecasts. The scenarios are heuristic. They should
stimulate OTS analysts to think constructively and creatively
about the forces changing the nature of their responsibilities
and about the resulting new problems and opportunities. The
reader is invited to construct alternative scenarios from
variables presented in this report.
The scope of long-range trends and possible events and
developments covered permits only qualitative analysis. The
analysis depended on interpretation of information from open
literature, especially trade journals and scientific and
professional periodicals, and on interviews and discussions
with experts and informed observers in industry, unions,
government, academies, and public interest groups.
A workshop held one-third of the way through the five-
month project was especially valuable. Sixteen people representing
major interests affected by toxic chemical regulation -- from
major chemical corporations to public interest advocates --
reviewed working papers prepared by the research team. They
spent a full day with us in evaluating the first-phase work and
advising on how to proceed. Workshop participants are listed
in the Appendix. The draft final report was reviewed in a
second workshop in December 1983. Those reviewers are also
listed in the Appendix. Approximately 36 experts were interviewed,
in person or by telephone, during the course of the study.
These people are also listed in the Appendix.
The scenarios of alternative futures for the chemical industry in
1995 are presented in Chapter 2. The introduction to the chapter
-------
-4-
explains how the scenarios were generated. These scenarios depend
on the materials presented in Chapters 3,4, and 5, which identify
and discuss long-range trends and their interactions, and the
implications for the problem of controlling the risks of toxic
chemicals in modern society. Chapter 3 looks at trends in the
industry itself, in the business environment and in international
trade patterns. Chapter 4 considers social and political trends
and identifies some emerging policy issues which, within the next
decade, have the potential for involving the industry in contro-
versy and conflict. Chapter 5 reviews impending developments and
areas of advancement in basic and applied science, and in indus-
trial innovation, that will affect industry problems and opportuni-
ties. For convenience, the findings and conclusions arising from
this work are given below.
FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
The Chemical Industry: Strong, Mature
The chemical industry plays a central role in our economy.
It is the fourth largest manufacturing industry in the
United States and a big contributor to our balance of pay-
ments, with a better than two-to-one ratio of exports to
imports.
The chemical industry after four decades of growth is a
maturing industry, facing rising costs of production and
increasing competition in international trade. Its
largest customers the .automobile, housing, and steel
industries -- are not likely to enjoy again the growth
rates of recent decades.
t Some parts of the chemical industry, especially commodity
chemicals, are likely to have continuing over-capacity for
several years. The work force is likely to remain stable
or to shrink,
Industry strategy for the next decade will emphasize cost-
reduction, risk-aversion, risk-spreading (through insurance
and through diversification, for example), and the shedding
of low profitability products and units.
-------
Product Mix; Movement to Specialties
There will be a marked movement toward high or value added
specialty chemicals and relatively little growth 1n bulk
chemicals production in the United States.
The United States will continue to be a leader in develop-
ment of new speciality chemicals and new applications of
old chemicals because of its strength in science and tech-
nology. Materials sciences, electronic chemicals, and bio-
chemicals will be growth areas.
t Investment in R&O will grow slowly, with a tendency to
shift basic research to universities. Large companies, how-
ever, are making investments in bioengineering with large-
scale commercial applications expected to begin by 1990
or 1995.
Industry Demography;., Relatively Stable
No significant shifts in facilities location are expected
although new specialty chemical plants will be built.
The average plant size is likely to decline. Few or no
new world-class facilities are expected to be built in
the U.S. except possibly in Alaska.
Feedstock: Impending Change
Toward the end of the next decade there is likely to be a
noticeable movement to new feedstocks for organic chemicals
~ primarily coal, with biomass as another strong contender
along with biotechnology products.
t One uncertainty for the chemical industry from 1983-1995
is the cost of petroleum and natural gas, as feedstock
and energy source.
Issues Confronting the Industry
One great uncertainty and possibly the largest problem facing
the Industry 1s the question of the now unplannable costs
of liability and victim compensation.
t At some time in the near future, there will almost cer-
tainly be renewed demand for and impetus toward increased
testing and regulation of "existing chemicals" -- those In
commerce prior to TSCA. This will impose great new uncer-
tainty and Increased costs on the industry.
Related and Important problems are:
the rising costs of insurance, and
-------
-6-
the decisions about improved waste management and dis-
posal, and the emerging technologies of high tempera-
ture incineration, recycling, and microbial engineering
for waste reduction.
Genetic screening of workers, labeling, and right-to-know
laws will be major workplace issues.
Multidimensional risk management will be the greatest
management challenge from 1983 to 1995; this includes:
new testing, monitoring, and analytical techniques;
new security measures to protect facilities and per-
sonnel from terrorists and sabotage.
There is a strong movement toward the mandatory release of
previously closely-held information, illustrated by
Section 8e of TSCA, State right-to-know legislation, and
the new OSHA hazards communication rule.
The Social Context
Six long-range demographic trends will be important to the
industry:
the political and social dominance of the 35-45 year old
age group, characterized by a high level of health and
environmental concerns and political activism;
increasing longevity, accompanied by increased concern
about the relationships between environmental factors,
morbidity, and life expectancy;
prevalence of smalj, dual-income households, impl-ying
both increasing per capita consumption of consumer
products and greater independence, mobility, and
assertiveness of employees;
decentralization of other industry toward the Sunbelt
and toward small cities and suburban areas, with result-
ing changes in the patterns of industrial users of chemi-
cals, transportation of hazardous products and wastes,
and availability of facility and waste disposal sites;
a continuing migration of people toward the Sunbelt and
toward smaller communities so that chemical facilities
and waste disposal sites will be less readily acceptable
in some areas than now;
-- both the work force and the general population are
increasingly well educated; and increasingly mobile --
demands for a safe environment will become more general
in all regions.
-- Women will make up nearly half of the work force by
1995; there will be increasing concern about genetic
and reproductive effect of chemicals in the work place.
-------
-7-
Public Attitude: Support for Risk Reduction
Environmental and scientific policy Issues are increasingly
international in scope. Health effects of chemicals in world
trade are likely to bring about recurring international
controversies and diplomatic tensions.
Public support for environmental safety will remain strong
and well organized. There 1s an emerging coalition between
environmental interest groups and trade unions that may
become a powerful factor.
Opinion surveys indicate that the public is increasingly
Intolerant of Involuntary risks.
Decisionmaking; Scientific and Public Pressures
Public decisionmaking will be subject to two strong pres-
sures; the influence of scientific information and advanced
analytical techniques, and demand for openness and oppor-
tunity for public review.
The need for greater consistency 1n regulation will be an
Increasingly visible issue. Concerns include harmonization
of local, state, national, and international regulation;
consistency of regulation throughout the lifecycle of sub-
stances, across different applications and different indus-
tries; and the lack of understanding and data on the rela-
tionship between regulation and innovation.
Congressional reaction to court restrictions on the use of
the legislative veto and a more general swing toward greater
Congressional assertiveness may lead to a reduction in the
discretion and flexibility allowed to regulatory agencies.
Congress is seeking improved capability for foresight and
planning, both for itself and for the Executive Branch.
f Deregulation efforts will be highly scrutinized and increases
in regulation may be called for by public interest groups. Not
withstanding deregulatory efforts, increased regulation is likely.
There is growing consensus among scientists and regulators
that a more holistic, cross-media, and flexible regulatory
strategy 1s necessary for future progress in environmental
quality. This may run counter to Congressional pressures
for reduced agency discretion*
State toxic control programs and laws are increasing, with
considerable diversity in approaches likely to develop.
State legislatures are handicapped by lack of scientific
information and staff support. Waste disposal sites and
work place right-to-know laws are the urgent Issues in most
states.
-------
-8-
State initiatives are likely to be driven by specific local
disasters or alarms and by siting and transport controver-
sies. This may bring about extreme remedies in some cases.
Differences in state laws will cause problems for industry.
There are signs that organized crime is an important factor
in illegal hazardous waste disposal. Such dumping will be
difficult to halt without industry cooperation.
Increased Litigation
Increasing reliance on court litigation to force attention
to public concerns is likely.
The volume of legal cases of victim compensation will con-
tinue to grow. Awards are likely to be unpredictable, but
generally increasing in the absence of a legislatively
imposed cap, or an alternative form of compensation.
There are likely to be changes in tort law at the state level
to facilitate the acceptance of epidemiological and statis-
tical evidence of cause and effect.
Environmental mediation and negotiation in lieu of adver-
sarial proceedings will increase but will not significantly
reduce the volume of legal proceedings.
Sources of Policy Issues
Diplomatic pressure on the U.S. to adopt stronger export
controls over toxic chemicals and other hazardous products
will increase.
t Computers and telecommunications will support public interest
groups and public health advocates in working for strengthened
regulation of environmental hazards by providing aggregated
data bases, networking, and modeling capability.
The media will continue to be a potent catalyst in public
health concerns, and will go to advocacy groups for informa-
tion if industry refuses to provide it. Proprietary informa-
tion versus public right to know will be a growing issue.
Specific incidents of injury or risk to public health will be
a recurring stimulus to demand for new control measures.
Likely sources of future concern are:
-- discovery of the contamination of groundwater especi-
ally where this threatens drinking water supplies;
rail or highway accidents involving toxic chemicals and
resulting in death, injuries, or large-scale evacuations;
-- a natural disaster, such as a flood or dam collapse, that
is found to have spread concentrated toxic waste deposits
over a large area.
-------
-9-
Genetic screening of workers, as an industrial health pro-
tection strategy, is likely to become a major civil rights
and equal opportunities issue.
The politics of toxic chemicals control will be shaped by
the stronger convergence of public health and worker
safety issues. :
I
New Knowledge of Health Effects
Health concerns will increasingly focus on birth defects,
reproductive and sexual disorders, aging processes, neuro-
logical and neurochemical disorders, and immunology.
t Converging advances in understanding the metabolic trans-
formation of chemicals, in genetics, and in biomedical
technologies are paving the way for individual monitoring
and neutralization of toxic substances within the body.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that there is a close
link between genetics and environment in causing disease.
The distinction in environmental and health impacts
between "natural" background toxic substances and man-
made toxic substances has not yet been addressed by
science. However, there is a significant difference in
the way the two are perceived by society, and consequently
a difference in regulatory priorities.
Improved Analytical Techniques
Technologies for multidimensional analysis of complex
mixtures of chemicals are being developed rapidly.
Attention to the synergy and antagonism of chemicals
interacting with other chemicals will drive toward life-
cycle regulation.
t Linkages of genetics to individual variations in suscept-
ibility to disease and environment pollutants is an early
warning system which can help avert and reduce risk. Some
see this development optimistically; others see it as en-
couraging discrimination against populations at unusual
risk. This Illustrates the many policy compromises that
will have to be found 1n the application of fast-paced
human genetic research to environmental problems.
t Modeling of the transport and transformation of chemicals
1n the environment (and in man) demands an integrated and
large-scale approach. This critical area of research could
yield invaluable information with coordination of existing
computer technologies, databases, and human expertise.
-------
-10-
Biology and biochemistry-based technologies present new
opportunities for monitoring and detoxification in indus-
try processes, waste sites, water supplies, and the
natural and built environment.
Better Data and Interpretation
The sensitivity of chemical detection is outstripping
our ability to understand and respond to possible but
uncertain effects of chemicals at extremely low concen-
trations. This gap is likely to worsen the policy
conflict over acceptable limits for known or suspected
toxic substances.
The need to mesh scientific knowledge and uncertainty
with social priorities means that a balance will
have to be drawn between standardized methodologies and
informed judgment in applying risk analysis to
regulation.
Advances in epidemiology, computerized data collection
and management, and improved medical analysis of cause
and effect relationships may lead toward separation of
the population into groups of high, low, and average
risk to different environmental factors (including
toxic substances). Regulation will have to deal with
the different interests of these micropopulations,
Systematic epidemiology, integrating multiple sources of
information, may gradually become operational and practi-
cal. Information generated independently in epidemiology,
occupational health statistics, medical records, environ-
mental monitoring, and demographic analysis could even-
tually be compiled into a national database creating a
comprehensive and dynamic picture of exposure to environmen-
tal, chemical, occupational stresses in terms of social
and genetic factors. Such data is now extremely difficult
to reconcile and interpret. Serious issues of privacy and
information access will have to be resolved before potential
benefits can be fully realized. The networking of the na-
tion through telematics is already making these issues
more urgent,
As toxicity testing methods diversify and expand, the need
to assure reliability and comparability of test results
grows. This concern applies across different tests on
a single substance; to tests across industry, government,
and academic labs; and to testing across laboratories
from different nations.
-------
-11-
t International attention to analysis and regulation of toxic
substances is increasing along with pressure for inter-
national exchange of data and coordination of testing
and standards.
Computer-based analysis and toxicity testing methodologies,
primarily structure-activity relationships, are becoming
more sophisticated and widespread due to their Tow cost
and high speed. We will continue to rely on a battery of
cellular and animal methodologies, however, to provide
the database for computer analysis and investigate chronic
and acute whole-organism responses to chemicals.
New Sources of Toxics
The rapid expansion of biotechnology will create and
release large amounts of proteinaceous biological materials
and other intermediates and products. Little is known
about the long-term health and environmental effects of
these materials.
High-technology materials and products such as composites,
plastics, electronic chemicals, photovoltaics, and ceramics,
are being developed faster than their health and environ-
mental effects can be assessed. These materials add new
opportunity for chronic or accidental exposure to toxic
substances during their manufacture, use and environmental
dispersal, and final disposal.
t Non-point sources of toxic substances remain a problem
for regulation as well as a challenge for monitoring and
control. Dispersed chemicals contribute a substantial
proportion of the total toxic load on the environment and
will be of increasing concern as point sources are better
controlled.
IMPLICATIONS FOR EPA's OFFICE OF TOXIC SUBSTANCES
The mission of OTS as stated in the Toxic Substances Control Act
(TSCA), is to insure that chemicals do not impose unreasonable risk of
injury to the public, or damage to our common environment. OTS is also
instructed that the regulatory process should not unduly impede innovation,
The perception of risks associated with chemicals is increasing, and the
public is less and less willing to consider them reasonable. The chemi-
cal industry will be under increasing pressure for better risk manage-
ment. It is unclear what effect these pressures will have on industry
innovation, but it is certain that the next decade will provide broad
opportunities for the development of new, highly specialized chemicals
-------
-12-
and biochemical products. OTS will have to be prepared to stay abreast
of rapid changes 1n the development, manufacture, and use of chemicals.
OTS will have the even more difficult task of staying abreast
of rapid developments in science, technology, and human health
assessment; most importantly in the physiology of aging and sexual
competence, neurological and neurochemical science, and Immunology.
These developments will stimulate new concern about toxic risks, but
will also provide new control capabilities.
Guidel 1nes for Imp!ementation
TSCA created Federal authority to control chemicals, but its
equally important thrust is to create mechanisms for informing the
public about the risks associated with chemicals. TSCA implies that
OTS should:
support the Administration and Congress in developing
public policy related to chemicals,
as far as practical, act to stabilize expectations and re-
quirements imposed on the chemicals industry, so that it
can internalize these requirements and remain strong and pro-
ductive, and
t foster frankness and openness in relationships between
government, the public, and the chemical industry.
Principles for a Safe Toxics Management System
TSCA may well be amended and strengthened in the future. Both
the authority and the workload of OTS may increase. Planning should
be underway now to prepare for enlargement of OTS's mission, OTS's re-
sponsibilities are to support decisionmakers in developing toxic risk
policy and to deal openly with the industry and the concerned public. These
considerations also should guide the eventual development of an integrated
-------
.-13-
and consistent national toxics management system or process that
should have the following characteristics without regard to the juris-
dictional boundaries imposed by incremental legislation (TSCA, OSHA,
RCRA, CPSA, CERCLA):
information generated cooperatively by industry and
the government, about all chemicals on the market;
» adequate information about chemicals throughout their life-
time of marketing, use, and disposal;
t assurance of safe handling at all times;
assurance of safe, documented, and monitored waste disposal;
9 monitoring of public health and of the environment to detect
unanticipated effects and interactions of chemicals;
the clean up of past mistakes;
the internalization of the associated costs*
Regulation of chemicals must impose costs on the chemical indus-
try and ultimately on the users of chemicals. In the past, however,
American industry has repeatedly shown itself to be sufficiently resil-
ient and resourceful to absorb the costs of rising societal expecta-
tions of better health and a cleaner environment, and still remain
strong and vigorously competitive in world trade.
Possible Reorganization
Over the next decade, as OTS's workload increases and becomes
more complex, the need for close coordination with other agencies will
increase,, Rationalization of chemicals regulation may require reor-
ganization of agencies that have closely related or overlapping respon-
sibilities. For example, elements of EPA, OSHA, CPSC, FDA, and NIOSH
might be combined. In the meantime, more effective sharing of data
should help all of these agencies in their assigned tasks,
New Policy Strategies
High conflict political issues, driven by strong economic pres-
sures, complicate regulatory procedures and test the willingness of
industry to comply, OTS should be working to help invent regulatory
-------
-14-
strategles that accomplish national policy objectives without
reducing Incentives for Industry cooperation. If policymakers
can draw on OTS expertise, future regulatory strategies may be
far less difficult to implement and enforce.
The most important challenge on the horizon for OTS Is the
great likelihood of a sudden and powerful demand for increased
attention to chemicals long on the market and in wide use.
The Changing Chemical Industry
The chemical Industry itself will change in significant
ways over the next decade. Regulatory strategies must reflect
and adapt to these changes. Toward the end of the decade there
may be changes in feedstocks or commercialization of biological
processing and biochemical products, which will pose new environ-
mental and health questions. EPA (and OTS) are now beginning
to prepare for these developments. If they fail to meet this
challenge, they will again be forced to react and correct rather
than instruct and guide their safe Implementation.
OTS is the obvious and most appropriate site for the aggre-
gation and analysis of data about chemicals. To the extent that
such data 1s not collected and collated now 1n a systematic and
accessible way for use by other agencies and by industry, the
task will be much more difficult 1n the future.
Foresight
OTS, charged with a difficult mission in a rapidly changing
society, should systematically strive to improve its ability to
anticipate change. It needs to be able to anticipate new chemi-
cal products and changes in the mix of products, and to relate
these to changing market patterns. OTS also needs to understand
long-range trends affecting the social context of risks to public
-------
-15-
health, Including changes in the age structure, location, and
activities of the population and their social values and politi-
cal priorities.
Some strategies for better anticipation or foresight could
include:
building a continuing planning and foresight process;
carrying out studies of the innovation process in the
chemicals industry, and of the factors influencing indus-
try decisionmaking;
using systematic procedures to monitor and interpret
advances in the basic and applied sciences and advances
in medical science and diagnostic techniques
OTS clearly must stay abreast of the latest developments in
analytical methods, assessment techniques, and instrumentation^
This should include developing the capability to use new tools
*
and techniques of judgment theory and decision analysis. Some
suggestions, for strengthening this capability include:
t development of a in-house Fellows program, bringing in
people from universities, research laboratories, hospi-
tals, industry, and environmental interest groups,
providing sabbaticals and re-training for OTS profes-
sionals,
bringing in recent retirees from industry,
holding professional seminars and conferences.
Priorities
OTS must have systematic and sensitive techniques for
priority setting, so that it can plan and schedule the alloca-
tion of its limited resources. Some successful techniques that
deserve to be used even more extensively are:
decision analysis tools,
0 advisory panels for priority setting and ranking,
explicit criteria for selecting critical issues,
systematic ranking of the inventory of existing chemicals
by volume of production, estimated exposure, and sus-
pected risk characteristics,,
-------
-16-
Regulatory Innovation
OTS should continually pursue the design of innovative
regulatory strategies by:
t modeling the effects of past regulation and hypothetical
regulation in terms of economic impacts, industry adapta-
tions, and public response,
attempts to develop improved techniques for economic and
social impact assessment,
exploring the feasibility of regulation focused on objec-
tives rather than on standards or restrictions,,
Communication withu Stakeholders
It is essential that OTS earn the respect and trust of
the concerned public, of the chemical industry, and of the
larger scientific community. Some ways of doing this are:
emphasizing public explanation and discussion of its
proposed actions,
holding seminars on regulatory issues for scientists,
industry risk managers and decisionmakers, and public
interest representatives,
encouraging OTS professionals to publish and to play
active roles in professional and academic organizations
and activities.
Other Leadership Opportunities
OTS should take a. leading role in building institutions
and creating processes that support and buttress its mission,
OTS might, for example, propose and work for:
a systematic groundwater survey by EPA or another govern-
ment agency such as the Corps of Engineers,
more emphasis on environmental epidemiology, in EPA, the
Centers for Disease Control, and elsewhere,
national chemicals testing supported by government and
industry,
t a data bank dealing with existing chemicals.
-------
-17-
CHAPTER 2
SCENARIOS OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, 1995
Dealing with complexity is a central problem in coming to
grips with the future and designing public policy programs. Too
often, legislative, administrative, regulatory, or procedural
public policy is framed around only a few important factors or
a small set of issues which have matured into widespread conten-
tion. This report approaches the future of toxic chemicals with
the explicit purpose of engaging the future, the next 12 years,
in the full complexity of the rapidly evolving situation.
Scenarios are the tool for presenting integrated images
The three snapshots presented are plausible alternative ways in
which the chemical industry and other factors influencing the '
toxics situation could evolve. Each scenario is based on a
more formal analysis of trends and factors presented in later .
chapters. The scenarios are constructed by permuting the criti-
cal variables which will shape tire future of the industry. Per-
muting each of the variables, even over reasonable ranges, would
create great numbers of marginally different pictures. Conse-
quently, judgment enters into the presentation of the scenarios
judgment as to the important variables, judgment as to how they
might interact, judgment as to the range of variations. The
test of the scenarios is whether the user finds them useful in
stimulating and shaping his thinking about public policy. They
are to serve as foils for further discussion.
Each of these scenarios is based upon a selection and permu-
tation of the variables shown in Exhibit 1.
§ The first scenario, Rapid Evolution, finds that many of
the potentials for change of the structure, function,
organization, and products of the industry move briskly
to fruition, drastically altering structural relation-
ships within the industry, in the feedstocks and pro-
ducts, and in the functional aspects of regulation,,
-------
EXHIBIT 1
Scenario Variables
I. Social and Political Priorities
a. Support for environmental protection
b. Attitude toward responsibility of
industry, governments
c. Political activism; consensus
II. Regulation and Political Decision/Hiking
a. Local/State/Federal/international roles
b. Litigation, mediation
c. Liability and compensation: action, awards
d. Regulatory strategies
e. Risk assessment, CBA
f. Regulatory organisation
9. TSCA
I. Rapid Evolution
Strong support from public and
political leaders
Places responsibility on Federal
government and industry
High degree of consensus
Scenarios
II. MuItI-Dimensional Change
Weakening, but varies by region
Leaves responslbllty to State
and local governments
High degree of conflict
III. Stability
Public support growing, leader-
ship resistant
Mixed responsibility: Federal
and State
Significant degree of cooperation
Strong Federal role, internal
regulation
High level of mediation
Controlled, consistent awards
Regulation-by-Objective
Restructured, agency reorganized
New Act, much pretesting
Federal deregulation
High level of litigation
High, but inconsistent awards
Varies widely by State
Emphasis on cost containment
Federal regulatory structure
dismantled
Limited to assistance to states
Mixed, all have roles
Much litigation, much mediation
RA and CBA widely used
OSHA/EPA regulatory coop.
III. Health, Environmental Concerns
a. Environmental technologies
b. Health oonitoring and analysis
c. Toxicology
d. Costs, scale, institutionalization of
analytical techniques
e. Changing health priorities
Increased environmental
monitoring
Increased testing and monitoring Advances in epidemiology
Toxicology advances
Industry investment high. Nation- Right-to-know expanded
a) Center for testing
Neurological effects Iranunological effects
Advances in detoxification
Aging, birth defects
IV. Feedstocks. Materials. Products
a._ New materials: production, use
b. Biologicals, biotechnology
c. Feedstocks
Emphasis on composites
Some biological products in bulk,
competition high, much uncertainty
Progress on alternative feed-
stocks but little change
Innovation declining
Coal gaining as feedstock
Emphasis on photovoltaic!.
Innovation slips
Slower than expected progress
in biologicals, biologicals
under TSCA
Reliance on petroleum
V. Industry Structure
a. Shift from bulk to specialty chemicals
b. Mergers, acquisitions, diversifications.
c. Location, scale
d. Labor-management relationships
e. Industry policy, self-policing, etc.
f. Industry and health care
Offshore production of bulk
grows. Shift to specialties
pronounced
Shake out, new growth
New small specialty plants,
new sites
Labor-Indus try cooperation
Positive industry attitudes
Government-industry cooperation
Joint U.S.-foreign ventures in bulks
Consolidation, diversification
Few new plants
Labor-Indus try conflict
Industry hard-lining
Right-to-know issue
Divestitures, increased foreign
ownership
Pla..c downsizing
Some self-policing
VI. International Context
a. U.S. world trade position
b. Competition
c. International environmental pressures
d. War. exogenous events
Strong
Middle-East, Brazilian competi-
tors
High cooperation between nations
Declining
Continual international disputes
Turmoil, terrorism hion
Chemical exports slip
3rd World competition
International regulations
and cooperation
00
-------
-19-
The second scenario, Multi-Dimensional Change, chiefly
emphasizes continuity but highlights developments where
substantial changes could occur, creating important new
regulatory implications.
The third scenario, Stability, emphasizes continuity with
minimum change in terms of the effects of forces now
acting on the industry and the toxics situation.
The reader, of course, is invited*to generate other scenarios
using the variables in Exhibit 1 or by introducing others.
The scenarios themselves are in the form of a Table of
Contents and^the lead article in a topical issue of a national
trade or professional publication in November,1995. The scenarios
avoid the mention of real chemicals when there is a negative con-
notation. In those cases, names of non-existent materials are
used. On the other hand, the names of real chemicals and chemi-
cal companies are used when the implications in the scenario are
neutral or positive.
The background to these variables, i.e., the analysis of the
factors entering into the determination, of their relative impor-
tance, are discussed in later chapters, as are many of the impor-
tant social trends which will act across-all the scenarios. For
example, within the relatively short interval of 12 years
excellent forecasts can be made about overall demographic patterns.
Consequently, they are not raised specifically in the scenarios
.but are taken as background. On the other hand, within the frame-
work of the scenarios, market penetration of composite materials,
a specific trend is important. Some readers may choose to go to
the background material before reading the scenarios.
-------
-20-
SCEMARIO 1
RAPID EVOLUTION
-------
-21-
CHEMICAL & ENGINEERING
VIEWS
Volume 83, Number 2
January 15, 1995
News of the Week
New continuous multi-
enzyme process of Diamond
Shamrock and Morton Thiokol
is less expensive, more
energy-saving than current
processes. Page 6
International represen-
tatives meeting in Sweden
have drafted new guidelines
for shipping of hazardous
materials. Page 6
A computer program
developed at Caltech can
analyze the toxicity of
a chemical structure
along over 1000 health
and environment variables.
Page 7
One of three remaining
laboratory animal supply
companies closed its doors.
Page 8
Ireland opens world-
class plant producing
chemicals from peat.
Letters 4
Editor's Page 5
Concentrates
Business 9
Government 24
Science/Technology 30
The Departments
Books 41
New Products 48
ACS Comment 52
Awards 55
Newscripts 70
Business
The focus on specialty chemicals has fueled
Wall Street attention to acquisitions in the
chemical industry. page 15
International
Middle East petrochemical producers posted a market
gain for the eighth straight year; Hong Kong,
Singapore, and Indonesia have cornered the Asian
plastics markets. Page 18
Government
Broadened government insurance and health care
provisions have offset tightened liability
standards and awards. Page 25
Science
Advances in the genetics of thought and behavior
control offer a means to inhibit anti-social
behavior and a crucial test to the laws and
ethics governing R&D. Page 40
Technology
The new biocompatible polymers and the prosthetic
nervous system
Education
Bioprocess engineering graduates outnumbered
traditional chemical engineering majors for
the first time. Page 59
Cover Story
The rapid evolution of the
chemical industry over the
past decade has successfully
balanced restructuring around
specialties with health arid
environmental concerns, with
some help from the government,
Page 30.
-------
-22-
THE FIVE-YEAR REPORT OF THE JOINT
INDUSTRY-GOVERNMENT COUNCIL ON
CHEMICAL INNOVATION
A Successful Decade of Evolution
Through Government-Industry-Pub!ic
Cooperation
ATLANTA, Nov. 3 The shakeout
and regrowth of the chemical in-
dustry over the past ten years has
been much more dramatic than the
pundits predicted in the 1980's.
Driven by a resurgent, highly-pro-
fessional environmental movement
and increased pressure on Federal
resources to manage the complex
problems of international economic
competition and environmental con-
cern and cleanup, the Joint Indus-
try-Government Council on Chemical
Innovation was officially empow-
ered in 1989. This month JIGCCI
(pronounced"jig-see) released its
five-year report, an integrated
analysis of the health of the U.S.
chemical industry. C&EV has
talked with industry and govern-
ment observers, who have generally
lauded the JIGCCI1s work. High-
lights of JIGCCI's report and some
of the comments of key observers
follow.
Realization of the complexity
of environmental problems as well
as demands for government effi-
ciency and reorganization prompted
the restructuring of .government
regulatory oversight of chemicals
in 1990. The Toxic Materials Reg-
ulatory Reform Act, which had
fought its way through Congress in
various forms for years, combined
oversight, research, and regula-
tory functions of the old Office
of Toxic Substances, the Food and
Drug Administration, and the Occu-
pational Safety and Health Admin-
istration, with the EPA Director-
ate of Public, Occupational and
Environmental Health. At the same
time, the Reform Act enhanced the
testing requirements for new prod-
ucts, streamlining the testing
process to centralize testing for
potentially toxic substances
throughout industry and government.
EPA guidelines were brought into
harmony with OECD guidelines as
part of the 1990 renegotiation of
GATT. The 'boomerang effect,'
where toxic substances produced
only for export returned in the
form of downstream products, was
an issue of growing concern that
demanded international coordina-
tion. In the United Nations the
developing nations pushed for the
elimination of chemical dumping
and for increased testing by the
developed nations. The spark that
finally led to the formation of
the United Nations Organization
for the Regulation of Chemical In-
dustries (UNORCI) was the 1989 cy-
ano peptine poisoning of the
drinking water of Sao Paulo, Bra-
zil, for 11 days, leading to 367
deaths and 16,000 casualties.
The chemical industry today,
against this background, has sub-
stantially increased its invest-
ment in testing of chemicals both
during development and throughout
the product lifetime, though most-
ly through support of external
work. Over the past six years of
its operation, the National Cen-
ter for Toxicology and Analytical
Chemistry, housed under the joint
direction of the National Bureau
of Standards and the National En-
vironmental Health Sciences Pro-
gram, has -- in real terms -- in-
creased its budget by 300% and
more than tripled the number of
chemical substances it screens
each year.
-------
-23-
Closely tied to this has been
the substantial increase in gov-
ernment-sponsored environmental
monitoring. The late 1980's were
a time of significant innovation;
the combination of fifth-genera-
tion computer capacity and expert
systems, a comprehensive albeit
fledgling national public health
database, and scientific advances
together provided the foundation
for the National Health Monitoring
Program.
The scientific spur was a se-
ries of rapid advances in neuro-
environmental research, which
brought Dr. James Brennan and his
Johns Hopkins University team the
1994 Nobel Prize in physiology and
medicine. Brennan and others
linked three lines of research in-
to a revolutionary but quickly-ac-
cepted picture. The three keys
were first, the neuromechanism for
memory consolidation; second, a
neurochemical interrupter mecha-
nism associated with several sub-
sidiary paths leading to decaying
memory, toxic amnesia, hypnotic
forgetting, and neurological-based
amnesia; thirdly, the team's most
recent discovery that 14 chemicals
commonly used in the plastics in-
dustry are metabolically trans-
formed into neurointerruptors in
approximately 11% of the popula-
tion.
The industry, while over-
whelmed by adverse public reac-
tion to these discoveries, has
with a few notable exceptions nei-
ther renounced liability nor
denied the potential impact on the
industry.
The pervasiveness of the health
problem pushed support for cen-
tralized Federal action, The
health monitoring and analysis
technologies team of the EPA/OSHA
joint regulatory task force has
placed chemical biosensors in
10,000 households and is running
an epidemiological survey in con-
junction with the Communicable
Disease Center in Atlanta, on
100,000 American families. The
full program for the analysis is
presented in the National Academy
of Science's report, The Role of
Science in Facing Neurological
Risks and is, of course, the sub-
ject of a comprehensive weekly re-
port by the Associated Press.
Much of the success of the Nation-
al Health Monitoring Program and
its speed of response are a result
of the extensive and well-received
action of the Software Products
Division of EPA, which went into
high gear in 1986.
By 1986, 18 million American"
households had microprocessors;
many environmental groups as well
as all major corporations were
extensively telemated. EPA re-
sponded to the increasing pressure
for sound environmental data by
turning out environmental data ma-
nipulation, monitoring, and model-
ing software packages. They have
since become global standards.
The software packages are now pro-
duced in 89 languages and distrib-
uted through UNESCO. Working with
EPA's Environmental Sensors Divi-
sion, widespread low-cost sensors
are used by industry, government,
and environmental groups and have
been available since 1988 at a
subsidized rate to individual cit-
izens. They have been a smashing
success in environmental monitor-
ing.
The most directly significant
development over the past decade
has been the accompaniment of the
growing support for environmental
cleanup by a nationwide wave of
-------
-24-
experiments in regulation, clean-
up, compensation, and enforcement.
The mixed success but more sig-
nificantly the failures at
State level following a move to
deregulation in the mid-19801s led
to a recentralization of Federal
authority in the Comprehensive En-
vironmental Control Act of 1989,
that centralized regulation of the
environment in the EPA and paved
the way for the increase in influ-
ence of the industry advisory
councils.
The extensive support for envi-
ronmental cleanup and legislative
innovations, of course, grew out
of the Reunion Party's successes
beginning in 1988 with the elec-
tions in Colorado, Montana, and
South Dakota. Much of the chemi-
cal industry's general health can
be attributed, in retrospect, to
the rise of the Reunion Party, a
once not-to-be-believed coalition
of labor, public interest groups,
concerned scientists, and local
businessmen. Industry's response
was to form its own coalition with
the 25 or more unions represented
in chemical manufacturing plants
and in a few months of concerted
effort and, some inside ob-
servers claim, some power plays
against the few reactionary hold-
outs within industry councils
to come up with an effective self-
policing scheme that .in some ways
went beyond what political deci-
sionmakers were ready to put for-
ward.
The Public Health Councils that
were set up -- with representation
from industry, unions, Federal and
State government, and the public
-- have had the smarts, the dol-
lars, and the political muscle in
Statehouses as well as on Capitol
Hill to formulate toxics control
programs that gave industry room
to maneuver in cost-effective ways
and still maintain a degree of
public confidence that dampened
the political fires. The Federal
strategy of multimedia "regulation
by objective" (building on the
model of the old bubble strategy)
has provided incentive and room
for innovation in preventive and
cleanup efforts.
The industry fell in line with
the formalized liability and com-
pensation program, the heart of
which was a health insurance pro-
gram, to which government and in-
dustry both contribute and which
is retroactive to all workers em-
ployed in the industry after 1950
for a period greater than 16
months. The big breakthrough was
the ability to enjoy health pro-
gram benefits without the need to
tie health effects directly to a
particular site or incident. The
health mediation panels, with full
responsibility to assign liability
and benefits on an epidemiological
statistical basis, have cleared
the slate of 14,500 cases of liti-
gation.
With the industry enjoying the
consistency and clarity of nation-
wide and industry-wide rules, and
freed of some of the financial
risks by national environmental
health insurance (the Efgar/Neker-
by Law of 1989) and the accompany-
ing cap on compensation awards, it
has moved into an era of unprece-
dented innovation and prosperity.
American specialty chemicals domi-
nate a large proportion of the
world trade and compete strongly
in dozens of other niches in the
global chemicals market.
The JIGCCI profile of the U.S.
chemical industry focuses on this
vast increase in specialty's share
of chemical shipments; from 1985-
-------
-25-
1995 they report that specialties
grew.350% as a share of value of
shipments. The National Specialty
Chemical Association today effec-
tively is the U.S. chemical indus-
try. Bulk or commodity chemicals
manufacture has moved outside the
nation's boundaries, but U.S.-
owned multinationals claim a
healthy share of its ownership
either directly or in productive
partnership with a dozen other na-
tions, many of them Third World
nations. In the meantime, the
U.S. has strengthened its position
in world trade. The JIGCCI report
is optimistic about the continued
dominance of the U.S. in special-
ties, especially with the rapid
growth in use of composite materi-
als for construction, transporta-
tion, and packaging. However, in-
troduction of these new composites
has created a number of new con-
cerns, particularly in terms of
waste disposal, combustion by-
products in office and residential
fires, and resistance to recycling
and remanufacture. The Toxic
Chemicals Data Center reported
1,871 environmental incidents in-
volving composites in 1994.
The biggest uncertainty facing
the U.S. chemicals industry to-
day is the ultimate impact of bio-
logicals. Already making strong
encroachments into the traditional
commodities chemicals- markets, bi-
ologicals are sending specialty
chemicals manufacturers scrambling
to stake out claims.
Between 1933 and 1987, 800 new
chemical products were introduced
into the market based on microor-
ganism or enzyme processes which
in turn were founded upon genetic
manipulation. While these were a
profitable, extensive, part of the
pharmaceutical and specialty chem-
ical industries, the real break-
through came with the opening by
ICI-DuPont of the ethanol-butanol
facilities in Nashville, Tennes-
see, and Lagos, Nigeria, under
their cross-licensing arrangements
signed in 1992. The three-cascade
process, using artificial genes in
two of three stages, converts soft
woods to alcohol at an 86% chemi-
cal efficiency with the capture of
important by-products. The most
significant other step to commodity
chemicals from wood has been the
development of delignon, an enzyme
preparation to split lignin into
useful chemicals. On that basis,
we may anticipate a new family of
vanillin-based chemicals entering
the market in 1996-97.
~ The story of the carbochemical
industry, however, has not been
all successes. The global market
for biotechnology facilities has
.largely been captured by the Jap-
anese and the Soviet Union, with
the U.S. manufacturers running a
poor third. Industry critics say
that the JIGCCI report downplays
the growing Brazilian threats in
biology-based commodities. Janet
C. Albertson, Director of R&D for
Crotus, says, "Expectations of
government and economists were way
out.of line. While our share of
carbocommodities is growing, the
Japanese have simply had a lot
more time and a lot more govern-
ment support than we have. A
Federal policy of pushing biopro-
cess R&D simply doesn't mean that
the industry can shift overnight."
-------
-26-
SCENARIO 2
MULTIDIMENSIONAL CHANGE
-------
Court decisions
challenge industry
Inconsistent and
often contradictory
state policies on
victim compensation,
environmental standards,
and occupational health
have put the chemical
industry into a state of
near-paranoia. Although
many chemical-exporting
Third World nations are
troubled by economic and
political turmoil,
the U.S. share of
world trade continues
to decline.
viewpoint 3
.Biochemical warfare
tetters 5
weekly price index 13
Chemical Month. ISSN 2001-1THX/93
JtS (Including Chemical Specialties and
~~f~* Chemical Industries), ! published
-\*f I monthly, except for one Issue in
December, by J. F. Costes, Inc. Subscription
races: U.S. and possessions, $99 per year;
alngle copies, S10, Japan, Y2300 per year;
elsewhere on request. Executive, Editorial,
Circulation, and Advertising Offices: 3718
UiuwKa St., N.U., Washington, D.C. 20015.
Second-class postsge psld at Washington, D.C.
Tltl* not registered at U.S. Patent Office.
-27-
November 30,1995-Vol. 155, No. 6
10 '
11
12
13
14
14
15
16
Outlook for state cooperation mixed.
National Ass'n of State Toxic Controls Agencies meets.
Consolidation in petrochemicals.
Foreign competition spurs vertical integration.
Right-to-know battles continue.
National chemical disclosure legislation fails.
National environmental concern softens.
Critics point to ecology protests in Tennessee, however.
Sudan leads toxics protest at U.N.
Claim international groups have ignored toxic exports.
Ctippling liability claims unchecked
Insurance.giants raise rates again.
Industry calls for FederaJ. support of coal research.
Coal -based commodities still a promise.
20 markets
Photovoltaics a shining star.
PV ion glasses continuing explosive growth.
22 specialties
New corn-based specialties growing.
USDA research on waste utilization pays off.
36 international
Political turmoil in South America.
Industrial terrorism sabotages Brazil's industry.
37 people
-------
-28-
COURT DECISIONS RAISE NEW QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. CHEMI-
CALS INDUSTRY
WASHINGTON, D.C., Ncv. 7 Two
court decisions dealing with victims
of toxic chemicals grabbed headlines
across the nation last week and
threatened the coalition between
Blacks, Hispanics, and blue collar
workers.
In New Jersey a court awarded $10
million to families or guardians of
23 people born severely handicapped
in the tiny community of Jake Flats,
between 1981 and 1989. Jake Flats
lies near the huge chemical facility
built by Opal Chemical Company in
1968 and purchased last year jointly
by IFG and Coolant Chemical.
"No value," said Judge R. Rath,
"is high enough to compensate these
people or their parents for the loss
of life quality visited on them by
callous corporations whose only in-
terest was in making a profit."
Company spokesmen refused comment
pending an appeal.
Two days later a court in Texas
refused compensation to workers who
attributed high rates of leukemia,
birth defects, and heart and nerve
disorders to having worked in the
Gulfstate facility of Pacific Petro-
chemicals, the world's largest pro-
ducer of galapin. The state court
ruled that the evidence presented,
which was largely statistical, was
persuasive but was not conclusive
in establishing the necessary cause
and effect relationship between ex-
posure to chemicals and subsequent
health effects in any specific case.
Political commentators suggested
that the disparity in awards may
open rifts between Hispanics,
Blacks, and union groups who in the
last election were forged into a
potent political force in a dozen
states, despite their fierce compe-
tition for the declining number of
blue collar jobs in those same
states. Hispanic community leaders
were indignant at the reaction of
union reps in the Northeast, who
blamed the court decision on the
lack of support by Hispanic workers
for proposed "right-to-know" and
"safe workplace" laws. Such laws
were defeated in the Texas legis-
lature three years ago despite ex-
haustive effort by national unions.
The Texas law, had it been enacted,
would, lawyers say, have meant that
epidemiological evidence presented
in the Albarez case would have been
accepted in court.
The New Jersey case attracted
special attention because of its
contrast with the Texas case, but
it was by no means exceptional in
the size of the award.. In the past
two years, at least seven awards in
excess of $20 mi'llion have been lev-
ied against chemical companies in
the U.S.
The two decisions this week high-
lighted the extreme differences in
awards made in different regions,
which 1n turn reflect extreme dif-
ferences in attitudes and policies
that have developed in different
regions and states since the step-
wise Federal deregulation of the
mid-1980's. Some states trying
to lure new high tech industries
and affluent professional work for-
ces to replace the old, heavy in-
dustries they lost in the 1980's --
have mounted strong cleanup efforts
and accepted rising standards of
environmental safety. Other states
have continued to take a hard-nosed
-------
-29-
no-concessions stand against public
demands. This is particularly true
of states, such as Texas and Louisi-
ana, where bulk chemical producers
have been concentrated for decades
and where the supply of non-union-
ized labor is reliably replenished
by immigration.
Battle Lines Are Drawn
"Life is full of risks," O.B.
Duracy, Chairman of the Board of
Global Petrochemicals, commented
last week. "If they (workers) want
jobs they have to be ready to get
their hands dirty. Otherwise we
will be forced to robotize those
jobs that we haven't already auto-
mated."
Such statements, industry cri-
tics say, are responsible for in-
creasing radicalism within some
public interest groups. Public
health advocates called Duracy's
comment "a naked threat of repri-
sal." The National Society for
Safety through Environmental Enforce-
ment, NSSTEE, (pronounced "nasty")
an "environmental guerilla" band of
activists, has claimed or been
charged by the FBI with frequent
acts of violence against chemical
plants and corporation executives,
ranging from bomb threats to the
kidnapping and non-fatal poisoning
last year of Ian Hiez, President of
Quik, a pesticide manufacturing com-
pany. Industry spokesmen say the
FBI figures for sabotage directed
at chemical companies are too low
by at least a factor of two; they
blame some apparent "unintentional
releases" of pollutants and trans-
port accidents involving chemicals
on undetected terrorist acts or in-
ternal sabotage by malcontent wor-
kers.
This conflict and the fear of
additional liabilities or compensa-
tion suits are said by some chemi-
cal executives to reinforce the
strong trend toward locating new
facilities "off-shore," i.e. in
other countries, including Latin
America. This threat remains po-
tent, especially within the commo-
dity chemicals industry, despite
the perpetual political turmoil
that has so far frustrated plans
by Saudi Arabia and other Third
World countries to develop major
chemical industries." In the U.S.
world-class facilities have been
built only in Alaska, Texas, and
Louisiana in the last two decades.
Overall, most of the growth in the
industry has been in specialty
chemicals, in which this country
with its strong scientific base has
a commanding lead.
Investment specialist John Beard
of Johnson Sears, Inc., warns that
the U.So share in world chemicals
trade is still declining. The U.S.
is also said to be falling behind in
R&D directed at alternative feed-
stocks, despite its advantage in
plentiful supplies of coal and wood,
the two most likely prospects. Chem-
ical producers have been lulled by
the collapse of OPEC and by the gene-
ral dismantling of Federal environ-
mental regulatory agencies. Environ-
mental and public health advocates
recognize that coal-based chemicals
will bring with them a host of new
and poorly understood risks to pub-
lic health. Neither are anxious to
speed up the long-range conversion
to alternative or supplementary
feedstocks, although most agree
that it will have to come in the
next quarter-century.
European nations and ironical-
ly, Japan which has neither coal nor
wood have consistently higher R
-------
-30-
ducing R&D budgets and concentrating
on high profitability lines. For-
eign companies are moving into U.S.
markets to fill inviting niches,
while U.S. companies are busily di-
versifying into non-chemical pro-
ducts.
The backlog of victim compensa-
tion cases continues to grow des-
pite the fact that most chemical
companies, especially those with
new and modern facilities, now re-
use or destroy on site most of
their undesirable byproducts. The
volume of cases grows because of
unfolding understanding of subtle
and long-delayed physiological and
neurological effects of the first
four decades of the chemical revo-
lution. Advances in testing, toxi-
cology, and epidemiology suggest
that these effects will continue to
be discovered.
New Trouble
In July the latest epidemiologi-
cal survey of 200,000 American
households was completed, and the
news is not likely to be good. Ex-
pectations are that the final report,
when issued, will suggest a strong
tie between Virus A2, thought to be
responsible for Alzneimer's Disease,
and a facilitation of demyelination
of the nerves' protective sheath
giving access to the virus. The
most common organic chemical asso-
ciated with O'Neal's opening is Bi-
lazine, the common foaming agent in
polyhackalones. The first itera-
tion of the biennial epidemiologi-
cal survey, in 1986, tied 13 toxic
organic materials to widespread
overload of immunological systems.
That news almost derailed the Fede-
ral deregulation proposals then
pending in Congress; but they were
rammed through while medical ex-
perts and toxicologists were still
wrangling over subtle points in
the conclusions. The latest sur-
vey results are almost surely going
to have an even stronger political
impact.
The Federal Interagency Chemi-
cals Safety Committee, the chief
remaining relic of Federal legis-
lation in this field, has no imple-
mentation or enforcement authority
but has nevertheless taken a strong
role in advising, warning, and hel-
ping state and regional agencies.
FICSC, familiarly called "Fix", is
universally given credit for the
fact that 32 states have now adop-
ted the Toxics Control Uniform
Code and joined in interstate agree-
ments on a variety of subjects from
waste handling to transport of ha-
zardous materials to facility sit-
ing. "Take that with a grain of
salt," warns Charlie Jones, Western
Co-chairman of the Association of
State Toxic Controls Enforcement
Agencies. He points out that some
of the major chemicals producing
states have not accepted the code.
However, one big holdout, Louisi-
ana, is reported to be about to
join, with the urging of the Big
Six producers, who according to
Jones are coming to see it in their
own interests to lower the level of
conflict.
While the chemical industry re-
mains officially against nearly all
proposed laws and regulations,
claiming that the industry itself
will do a more innovative and cost-
effective job of protecting the pub-
lic if it is left to develop "good
business" procedures (the popular
buzz word for self-policing), many
progressive leaders within the in-
dustry are already said to be sup-
porting the "Fix" and the states in
pushing interstate regulations.
"It would be a great advantage to
us," one high corporate official
-------
-31-
says, "to have more consistent stan-
dards, that applied everywhere and
that our competitors also had to
abide by."
Spectre of Federal Regulation
The real reason that the chemi,-
cal industry is beginning to be
significantly more amenable to po-
licy makers and regulators at the
State level, other observers say,
is the fear of another strong popu-
lar movement to re-institute Feder-
al controls. That possibility be-
comes stronger with each new reve-
lation, or allegation, of a commu-
nity epidemic traced to chemical
contamination, although it will
be costly to rebuild a regulatory
structure from the ground up.
Specialty process chemistry sup-
pliers, with new, efficient, and
generally small scale plants that
incorporate processes to use
or destroy up to 98% of their dan-
gerous byproducts, might be relieved
by Federal re-regulation that as-
sured them of consistent treatment
and protected them against excessive
liability. In the meantime they
work hard at separating themselves
in the public mind and in legal re-
lationships from the bulk manufac-
turers and the makers of pesticides
that are widely spread over the en-
vironment.
The trigger for re-establishment
of Federal controls-, however, may
ultimately come not from public
pressure or industry despair but
from the international scene. "We
can simply not continue," said Sen-
ator Hawk last week in Foreign Af-
fairs Committee hearings, "to give
fuel to our enemies and alienate
our potential friends by spreading
our poison around the globe." Twen-
ty-five South American and African
countries will meet this week to
consider a trade embargo against
U.S. owned multinationals and affil-
iates in retaliation for the catas-
trophe in Niger last week, when 325
people died as a result of infiltra-
tion of 2,4-dinitropuzzilidine, a
soil-treating agent produced by a
U.S. company, into village wells.
If the Congress seriously con-
siders a new TSCA (block grants to
the states in 1987 replaced the Toxic
Substances Control Act) it may well
take as its model the new Comprehen-
sive Risk Reduction Legislation of
Alaska. This set of related laws
was passed in connection with the
building of world-class chemical
production facilities in the late
1980's. Government, industry, pub-
Tic interest groups, and unions,
and even representatives of other
nations and migratory peoples around
the northern global perimeter, took
part in their development.
The-two year process of negotiation
and mediation reminded observers of
a SALT conference or the old Law of
the Sea negotiations, but it has re-
sulted in a period of political con-
sensus and industry innovation that
the nation as a whole can only hope
to achieve.
-------
-32-
SCENARIO 3
STABILITY
-------
CHECKLIST
-33-
CHEmiUREC
NOVEMBER 1995
Environmental concern:
stronger than ever
The toxic gene?
And in this corner...
Toxicology in vivo
650
D
652
D
658
D
663
a
The professional operations of the new
environmental consortia are explored by Chen,
The successes and failures of TSCA and
biotechnology; Krantz makes a judgement.
Industry-public interest battles continue
over risk in regulation; Shelby calls it.
Biomedical analytical devices promise
human detoxification. Joffer talks tech.
668
Economics and chemistry
Optimism among the stats pi
D
670
Why the move away from petroleum has been
slow; Albertson provides answers.
Third World commodities growth provides
gap for U.S. regrowth. Rieger shows why.
Screen tests for genes
676
International regulation 682
Chemistry in the economy: 693
growth steady but slow D
698
D
Now that genetic screening is institution-
alized, Smith looks ahead to gene therapy.
U.S. example paves the way for international
right-to-know. O'Drain says it's good.
After stabilizing in the late 1980's, U.S*
chemical exports slip again. Brown investigates,
641 The Industrial ChymJsl
D
645 Heart Cut
D
690 The Science of the Possible
D
642 Write On
D
648 View from the Top
D
OBC The Last Word
D
Volume 35, No. II, pages 64|-70b ISSN
1138-1984 JFCCHH
CHEWJREC (ISSN 1138-1984) is published
monthly by J. f. Coates, Inc., at 3738
Kanawha St., N.W., Washington, O.C.
20015. Second-class postage paid at
Washington, O.C. POSTMASTER: Send
address changes to Subscription Services
3738 Kanawha St, N.W., Washington. 0 C
20015
Subscriptions « 1-year prices: Client,
142; Nonclients (individual personal
use) 162; Companies, instituions, 1 ibrarles
1172, Students, $12; Foreign postage $J2
idditiona.l/year. Space freight add $100.
Send payment to J. F. Coates, Inc.. 3738
Kanawha St., N.W., Washington. O.C. 20015
Single copies, $22. Phone orders can be
placed for printed, microfiche, and mag-
tape editions by calling the sales office
. continental U.S. Visa or Mastertaro
accepted. Rates above do not apply to
nonmember subscribers in Japan, who enter
subscriptions with Godzilla Co, Ltd.,
1-30 Nllon mashi 4-chrome, Cho-kyo,
Tokyo 666, Japan; (09)727-1125.
Editorial matters: Refer alt editorial
matters to V. T, Coates. Editor, CHEMWREC,
3738 Kanawha St., N.W., Washington, O.C.
20015; (202) 966-9307.
Advertising: Frontier, Ltd., M. Killon,
Pres.. 25 Glade Way, Reston, VA 22222;
(703) 123-4567.
Service: For change of address, send old
label with new address to J. F. Coates, Inc.
Client Services, 3738 Kanawha St., N.W.,
Washington, O.C. 20015. Allow 8 weeks to
effect change. Refer claims for missing
Issues, information on status of accounts.
notice of address change was not received
in specific time; (b)North American cUif
was made 30 days beyond issue date; (c)
your check is overdue.
Disclaimer: J. F. Coates, Inc., assumes
no responsibility for opinions advanced
by contributors to Its publications.
Views expressed in the Editorials arc
those of the author and do not necessari),
represent the official positions of J. F.
Coates, Inc.
Reproductions: To obtain reprint permission,
contact V, T. Coates, J. F. Coates, Inc.,
3738 Kanawha St., N.W., Washington, O.C.
20015; (202) 966-9307. For works copyrighted
,by J. f. Coates, Inc., free permission will
be granted to make copies for personal or
internal use. This permission does not apply
to copying for promotional purposes or resale.
-------
-34-
CEQ'S SILVER ANNIVERSARY BASH IN
DENVER:
A Quarter Century of Continuity
With Change
DENVER, Nov.9 The 25th Anni-
versary of The Council on Environ-
mental Quality was celebrated today.
Environmental Quality, 1995, was de-
livered with some fanfare yesterday
at Denver headquarters to a crowd of
1200. The seven-man commission (ex-
panded from the original three in
1990) held a two-hour press confer-
ence, followed by a 7-hour symposium
and celebration. 'Chairman John
McLeod in his retrospective hailed
as the major organizational develop-
ment in environmental management the
movement from FederaJ dominance to a
tripartite arrangement in which Fed-
eral, State, and international or-
ganizations collectively and inter-
actively manage local, national,
and global environment. Organiza-
tional change began in the early
'80's, with somewhat, questionable
and mixed ideological support. The
push for more State regulation and for
public participation and local con-
trol steadily shifted actions from
the Federal government to State and
local levels. Today, in contrast
to a quarter century ago, almost all
waste control, waste hazard manage-
ment, and landsiting problems are
the responsibilities of State or lo-
cal level authority,, Federal govern-
ment is to a great extent in a medi-
ation and conciliation role, a knowl-
edge generator through research and
development, and liaison and coordi-
nator on international affairs.
International regulatory bodies
building basically on the American
experience have increasingly assumed
regulatory control over the deep
oceans and the atmosphere, the Arc-
tic, Antarctic and most of the un-
supervised lands of the developing
nations. The UNEP (United Nations
Environmental Program) of the early
'80's has flowered into several de-
rivative organizations, the UNEM
(United Nations Environmental Moni-
torship), the UNEIP (United Nations
Environmental Inspection Program)
and the UNMO (the United Nations
Mediation Office).
Chairman McLeod pointed out the
enormous progress in development of
what in the (60's'and '70's would
have been called cost-benefit analy-
sis into a complex program of socio-
economic evaluation in which routine-
ly our multidimensional analyses are
presented to Federal, State, or Lo-
cal Advisory Bodies. The advisory
comments are becoming increasingly
relied upon by Federal agencies,
governors, county officials, and
mayors. The growth of the Cable
Net has tremendously facilitated
public discussions. Commissioner
McLeod reported that on a typical
evening, 600 discussions of. environ-
mental problems are going on around
the country. Over the last three
years, 7,000 specific environmental
issues have been discussed. The Li-
brary of'Congress in a recent poll
found 33^% of LAB's issues have been
satisfactorily resolved by Federal
or State agencies without further
challenge or litigation.
McLeod threw bouquets right and
left, especially to the state ad-
visory and consulting functions and
the mediation teams routinely sup-
plied by EPA to State agencies. As
McLeod put it, cooperation is the
order of the day. "We can celebrate
the passage of our environmental era
of travail," he said.
Two commissioners, Mary Smith,
representing the affiliation of in-
dustrial workers, and George Jones,
of the Environmental Cooperative,
-------
-35-
the nation's largest consortium of
environmental organizations, in their
own presentations, demurred gracious-
ly but unequivocally from McLeod's
position. They pointed out that
there are still major State and Fed-
eral problems having to do with
cleanup of waste, the management of
the slowly but inevitably growing
biotechnology business, the questi-ons
,of compensations and the key issue of
right to full disclosure. Jones no-
ted that the major organizational de-
velopment over the last 10 years in
his view was a formation of the OSHA/
EPA Joint Regulatory Teams. They now
routinely have assumed many of the
regulatory functions without any need
for new legislation.
The second greatest development
in the last decade, according to
McLeod, was the rise of the regional
advisory teams, representing indus-
try, government, public interest
groups, and local municipalities.
What has been particularly interest-
ing is in those states contiguous to
Mexico and Canada, foreign organiza-
tions are increasingly represented
on these Councils.
Problems still reported to be
intractable in Environmental Quali-
ty. 1995,.are getting things sorted
out with military cleanup, and our
nuclear waste disposal, a spotty,
irksome question. The reclamation
of aquifers and our waste incinera-
tion at sea are nettlesome issues.
Environmental Quality, 1995, re-
cites the principal structural chan-
ges in the chemical industry since
1985. McLeod talked about the gen-
eral effects of integrating industry
from the environmental point of view
and of the propagation of American
environmental standards around the
world. He did note, however, the
relative decline in U.S. trade posi-
tion, the developing of chemical
commodity industries in the Third
World and the increase in the ten-
dency of the European economic com-
munity to export high value added
chemical products to the United
States. The McLeod briefing called
for Congressional oversight hearings
on this question. Several distin-
guished participants at the sympo-
sium expressed suspicions that ra-
ther than tarnish the 25th Anniver-
sary, McLeod glossed over our ser-
ious trade issues. He neglected to
mention, although there is a whole
chapter in the report dedicated to
the question , international owner-
ship of the U.S. chemical industry
which has been slowly increasing.
McLeod cited as one of the great
causes for celebration, going along
with the internationalization of
American environmental and health
standards, multilingual soft-
ware packages propagated around the
world. EPA now routinely brings
1,000 interns from around the world
to training programs at American
universities and in the Federal agen-
cy itself.
Turning closer to the present,
McLeod highlighted some possible de-
velopments and some significant a-
chievements. He celebrated the mel-
ting away of corporate obduracy, to
self-policing. He celebrated the
establishment of the Clark-Johnson
Bill providing retroactive health
care benefits for workers in chemi-
cally related industries who develop
any one of 37 disorders epidemiolo-
gically attributable to chemical
products. He cited the great success
in the introduction of photovoltaics
in spite of the three year halt in
the propagation of photovoltaics un-
til the environmental safety of amor-
phous materials was fully satisfied.
Acknowledging that it did give an
edge to Japanese manufacturers, he
nevertheless felt that the environ-
mental preservation is well worth
the cost.
-------
-36-
Citing some future problems, he
raised concerns coming out of the
national epidemiclogical monitoring
systems, particularly with regard to
health implications of chemicals on
birth defects, aging and neurologi-
cal behavior. He cited the substan-
tial steps yet to be made in substi-
tuting mediation and arbitration for
litigation and he cited the yet to
be passed and implemented National
Land Bill Act which will require
land siting statements with regard
to all new industrial and chemical
productions facilities.
McLeod was particularly pleased
with the folding into EPA/OSHA of
regulations that controlled biotech-
nology. He cited as a possible prob-
lem the 49% decline in new materials
introduced into the American econo-
my over the past 15 years.
The full CQ Report is available :
from the Government Printing Office
for $37.50. It is available on In-
ternat Cable call up for 3 cents per
hour, and it is available on micro-
fiche and video-disc at the standard
rates of $1.00 per hour. Write to
the National Environmental Informa-
tion Center, Denver, for details.
-------
-37-
GHAPTER 3
THE CHANGING PATTERNS OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
The U.S. chemical industry is maturing. While
strong and profitable, it faces growing compe-
tition for world markets and rising costs of
feedstock, production, and risk management.
There is a strong'trend toward divesting less
profitable product lines, especially basic
commodity chemicals, toward diversification,
and toward specialty chemicals for future
growth. Maintaining U.S. position in world
trade will be a major priority. Increasing
investment overseas, with continuing over-
capacity in the U.S., is likely.
General industry strategy is to reduce
costs and seek profitability with reduced
risk taking. R4D investment is rising slowly;
emphasis is on product improvement and select-
ed new technologies, mostly bioengineering.
Average plant size may decrease; location
patterns will be relatively stable with
some tendency to move closer to the wellhead.
By the end of the decade there may be sig-
nificant movement toward coal and biomass
as feedstocks, introducing new environmental
regulatory concerns. The overwhelmingly
important management problems of the next
decade will be waste reduction and disposal
and management of risk and liability. Both
will be major cost factors in decisions.
A. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
1. The Importance of the Chemical Industry to the U.S. hcononvy
The U.S. chemical industry represents a significant and
positive force in the economy; it is the fourth largest U.S.
manufacturing industry. Many other industries, such as steel and
housing construction industries, are highly dependent on chemicals
(see Exhibit 2). Chemical products are an important factor in our
international trade (Exhibit 3).
-------
-SB-
EXHIBIT 2
MATERIALS AND PRODUCT FLOW OF CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
CHEMICAL RAW MATERIALS
Agricultural
coflinodit ies
Coal Tar
product s
Pet ro leum
& Natural
Metallic
ores
Non-met.11 Iic
ores
Organics
Industrial
gases
Inorganics
BASIC AND INTERMEDIATE CHEMICALS
Functional Chemical Products
Polymers
Agricultural chemicals
Medlcinals
Industrial and institutional
cleaners
Explosives
Adheslves
Automotive chemicals
Oil-field chemicals
Catalysts
Other
Chemical Additives .mil
Processing Aids
Colors
Surfactants
Flavors and fr.l^r
Carbon hi.irk
B i oc i dp .s
Thickening .ifieni *
Fl .ime r*'t .irdani s
UV stabilizers
Fond additives
Paper chemicals
Other
1
f
Process ing
Metals
I't't role-urn
ri'f i n in>j.
Pu 1 p ,ind paper
T«-xr i IPS
hi>"d prm i-
SS|»K
Class* scone * ;md
c lay product s
i
F
Wood prnduf f s
l\-x. ilr p
M.tch i nt-ry
«duff .s
.intl
cqu ipmt-nf
P.iprr jirtK
IK r s
y
N
UK
Mini iif>
Aj»r i i n) f or.) J
Korcs try
F i shcr t t*s
Canst rut1 ( i on
Pot rolcum n-cnvrrv
N.i ( i utiii 1 Kt'nui'fliy No i'd %
Knod
C 1 u( li i n^
Moti.s itiK
Hi-Uu -»l i -ire
M,.u>,-lu.|,!
Opt' f.l 1 1 i^ll^
K»-. i'.- t - i -
.
Source: George W. Ingle, ed., TSCA's Impact on Society
and Chemical Industry, ACS Symposium Series 213,
Washington, D.C.: American Chemical Society, 1983, p. 24.
-------
-39-
EXHIBIT 3
UNITED STATES TRADE BALANCE IN CHEMICALS
U.S. Chemical Trade Balance
($ billions)
exports
imports
balance
E/I*
1982
19.89
9.49
10.39
2. .09
1981
21.20
9.60
11.60
2.21
1980
20.74
8.58
12.16
2.42
1979
17.31
7.49
9.82
2.31
1978
12.62
6.43
6.19
1.96
1972
11 .71
6.27
5.44
1.77
Source: Chemical & Engineering News, June 13, 1983, p.54
*E/I = Export/Import Ratio
The chemical:industry is maturing. The strong growth pat-
terns of the past, perturbed by the economic recession, are now
confronting increasingly complex changes in markets, products,
and technologies. Many modifications and improvements have been
made to bring plants into compliance with increasing government
regulations and with variables of feedstock availability and con-
sumer product demand. Future changes may be more challenging
and costly for the industry. With the maturity of the industry,
corporate management may also become more risk averse and more
oriented toward immediate profits rather than long-term growth.
The cost of doing business will increase. Forces driving
these costs include:
increasing costs of manpower, new facilities, transpor-
tation, financing, machinery, and analytical instruments-,
-- increasing costs and possibly decreasing quality and
quantity of certain energy and feedstock sources, namely,
natural gas, petroleum, and certain ores;
-- increasing societal pressure and environmental regula-
tion for additional pollution monitoring and removal
equipment, modifications and development of equipment
-------
-40-
processes to lower hazardous chemical production, and
abandonment of older processes and plants that cannot
be readily modernized.
Foreign competition will increase. The U.S. global market
share of the chemical trade is decreasing. Lower energy and raw
material costs, cheaper labor rates, less regulation, and growing
markets in Third World countries will encourage a shift in produc-
tion to oil- and gas-rich developing nations. This trer.d may be
particularly important for basic, large-volume chemicals,
although the large domestic market argues that the U.S. will con-
tinue to produce bulk chemicals. The U.S. will maintain its lead
in production of specialty chemicals due to its scientific and
technological strength.
New profit-optimizing strategies are emerging because of the
trends noted above. Low profit enterprises are being shed,
management is being reorganized, diversification into non-chemical
areas is increasing, movement to more profitable foreign locations
is increasingly attractive, the workforce is being reduced, and
the emphasis on high-profit products -- specialty chemicals -- is
growing.
The economic recession of 1980-82 is the immediate and
visible cause of some of these changes, but most would, or should,
have come about in any case as the chemical industries reach
maturity after four decades of rapid growth, and as they respond
to growing foreign competition.
The chemical industries have always been at the forefront of
process automation. New uses of computers and telecommunications
for control, monitoring, information processing, R&D, modeling,
and plant design are rapidly being adopted. Further applications
of computers and robotics, will present new challenges and oppor-
tunities for the industry.
There is no standard definition of "commodity chemicals."
They are here considered to be chemicals (a) that are bought and
sold, with many suppliers so that (b) there is price competition,
-------
-41-
and (c) they are used at basic or intermediate stages of manufac-
turing. The following chracteristics generally apply at present to
the U.S. commodity chemical industry.
capital, energy, feedstock, and R&D/technology intensive;
established distributing and servicing networks;
global operations;
high plant and equipment investment in contrast to low
labor content in cost of manufacture;
highly skilled workforce;
high growth rate in past dependent on commodity chemicals
(future growth potential may depend on specialty chemi-
cals);
integrated plant complexes;
world scale capacity plants for commodity chemical produc-
tion (current capacity, however, exceeds global demands);
chemical plant sites near sources of raw material (raw
materials represent over 50% of manufacturing costs, and
industry outputs are highly dependent on their supply,
availability, and price);
t world's largest producer of organic commodity chemicals;
competitive posit/ion based on low price, ready availabil-
ity, and high purity of commodity chemicals;
signs of industry maturation and structural change on
horizon.
This report focuses almost entirely on organic chemicals, be-
cause concern about toxic substances, and OTS regulatory activities,
are now focused on organics. In the future, it should be noted,
inorganic chemicals are likely to get more attention; already there
is growing concern about heavy metals, and the increasing use of
catalysts.
The growth rate of commodity organic chemicals has been declin-
ing for the past three decades: 1950's ~ 17%; 1960's 13%; and
1970's 4.6%. The growth projection for the 1980's is 4%, only
slightly above the projected growth of the GNP (2.8%). Growth in
petrochemical sales is projected to be higher than growth in many
basic industries, but lower than in the past. (1)* But probably
References are grouped by chapter at the end of the report.
-------
-42-
more revealing is the declining ability of the industry over the
same time periods to rapidly penetrate end markets or create new
end markets. (2) This indicates a maturing industry.
Part of the problem for the U.S. commodity chemicals industry
lies with the prospects for economic vitality of its major customers
-- energy producers, automobiles, housing, textiles, steel and
appliances. High interest rates, availability of capital, domestic
and foreign 'economic downturns, increased production capacity,
value of the U.S. dollar, active foreign government involvement in
commodity chemicals, etc. will affect the rehabilitation of the
chemical industry customers and, in turn, future growth prospects
for the industry.
In 1984, with recovery from the recession well underway, opti-
mism was rising. Data Resources, Inc., forecast a growth of "real"
(1972 dollars) GNP of 5.4%, with growth in industrial production
of nearly 10%. On this basis, chemical shipments were forecast to
increase 9.4% over 1983, with the industry operating at 81.3% of
capacity, an increase of 8.4% over 1983's average operating rate. (3)
2. The Chemical Industry and World Trade
Global trends that are expected to affect future U.S. business
operations in general include: (4)
Increasing integration of the global economy, including the
integration of China and Russia in international trade and the
increasing industrialization of developing and newly industrialized
countries (NICs), thereby opening new markets and creating cheap
labor and raw material competition for many products;
-- Internationalization of science, with nearly every country in
the world now having a top layer of Western-trained scientists
and technologists;
-- Increasing political instability as the gap between the have and
have-not countries widens;
Erosion of American dominance of international business (in 1963,
two-thirds of the 100 largest multinationals were American; now
fewer than half are U.S. owned);
-------
-43-
-- International pollution, problems of environmental maintenance,
the trans-border flow of pollutants, and pollution of common
resources, which are becoming increasingly urgent issues within
and among nations;
-- Attempts to restrict transnational data flow, raising questions
of national security, economic stability, political stability,
protection of private property, civil rights, etc.;
A new wave of automation via computer-assisted design, computer-
assisted manufacturing, and industrial robotics, which raise the
threat of structural unemployment but also promise to bring the
benefits of automation to batch and custom manufacturing;
Barter and countertrade, rapidly becoming practices as a result
of the worldwide recession;
Widespread use of computers, telecommunications, and remote sensing;
Continuing political instability and recurring inter-
national crises, especially in the next decade;
Increasing terrorism, long associated with nationalism,
irredentism, and revolutionary activities, and now
possible protests against environmental pollution. It
is very possible that the threat of contamination may be
used as a mechanism of terrorism.
These trends specifically affect chemical companies. Chemi-
cals, particularly primary and intermediate organic chemicals, are
important contributors to the U.S. export performance
and chemical industry profits, and an increasing proportion of
domestic chemical production has been exported. (5)
However, a number of factors will tend to moderate the rate of
growth of exports of U.S. commodity chemicals:
continued near-term reliance on petroleum and natural gas;
lower demand for organic chemical-dependent products by
chemical industry customers, such as automobile manufac-
turer, building construction, fibers, plastics industries;
domestic and foreign economic pressures and currency valu-
ations;
protectionist barriers;
emergence of Saudi Arabia and Mexico as major com-
modity chemical manufacturers;
chemical industry industrialization plans and expansion
strategies of NICs such as Brazil, Korea, Mexico and Taiwan;
and
-------
-44-
industry nationalization and State/Government ownership
and direction of industry and industry economic incentives
in some countries. (6)
As a result of these and other factors, suci. as the strong value
of the U.S. dollar, U.S. position in world trade is eroding. The
chemicals trade surplus fell from $14 billion in 1981 to just over
$8-bill ion in 1983. (7)
World trade rose throughout the 1970's, but dropped 11% from
1981 to 1982 due to the world recession. (8) International trade
will increase slowly as the global economy improves.
Mergers, acquisitions, and nationalizations are expected to
alter the composition of the top 30 international chemical compa-
nies during the next 5-10 years. One estimate is that half of
these firms will be located outside the U.S. and the EEC. (9)
The countries hit hardest by the recent recession are West
Germany, Japan, and Great Britain. According to the National Eco-
nomic Development Office (London), there is a shift of commodity
chemicals away from the advanced countries. (10) Inorganics, fer-
tilizers, and petrochemicals will be affected most. The chemical
industry in many industrialized nations will decline or change as
a result.
Availability and price of feedstocks and energy will influ-
ence location decisions, especially for energy intensive basic
commodities. In addition, there will be a tendency to concentrate
production close to new demand centers areas of increasing
population and industrial and agricultural growth. This will mean
increasing shifts in markets and production toward the developing
and newly industrialized countries (NIC), some of which are already
planning on building world class facilities.
While some LDC's and NIC's have delayed development of world
class chemical facilities due to the recession, worldwide capacity
in basic commodity chemicals is expected to increase through the
late 1980's. (11)
-------
-45-
Government ownership, direct subsidies, and low-cost financ-
ing will increasingly enable foreign competitors to sell chemical
products below U.S. prices. (12) The motivation driving many for-
eign firms is changing from profits to concerns of employment, na-
tional development, and foreign currency exchange management.
New survival strategies are emerging for traditional chemical
producers. British Petroleum's recent activities are exemplary of
a larger industry trend toward streamlining their activities, re-
ducing low-profitability enterprises. British Petroleum is focus-
ing on three business areas: polyethylene, acetyls, and alcohols.
It is cutting manpower by 40%; closing 16 less profitable plants;
and getting out of polyvinyl chloride production. (13)
Following are some examples of the pressures from industri-
alized and developing countries that will influence the U.S. com-
modity chemical industry competitiveness over the next several
years.
Developed Nations
European chemical companies complain about competition from
the U.S. They have, however, also suffered in recent years from
inflation and recession. Emphasis in 1983 was on reducing excess
capacity exports and earnings dropped in Great Britain, France,
and West Germany. (14) Most European companies expected to invest
less in 1983 than in previous years. (15)
The response of the European chemical industry to these pres-
sures will probably be considerably fewer producers in the com-
modity chemical marketplace and an industrial movement to higher
value added chemical products,,
Japanese companies also had very low growth in 1983 and ex-
pect little or none in 19848 (16)
World scale production facilities being built in Canada will
eventually provide substantial competition for U.S. commodity chem-
ical industry in the future. In time, Canada may even double its
share of world production, particularly of commodity chemicals such
-------
-46-
as ethylene, benzene, polyethylene, styrene, etc. (17) There is
talk of building a new petrochemical industry in the Maritime
Provinces when world markets improve to take advantage of oil
fields off the shores of Nova Scotia "and Newfoundland. (18)
Saudi Arabia may become a significant competitive factor in
the global production and trade of commodity chemicals, according
to experts, but much depends on the future economic and political
stability of the area. (19) The large oil companies are likely
to be reluctant to build in this potentially troubled spot.
Mexico's chemical industry is dependent on imports of critical
materials and equipment, which cannot be bought with nearly worth-
less pesos. Brazil's chemical industry also has suffered from in-
flation and the debt crisis. In spite of this, as more developing
nations industrialize the Latin American petrochemicals markets
will grow. (20)
From 1970 to 1980, the developing nations of the world in-
creased their share of world chemical exports by 39%, from 4,6% to
6.4%, according to a 1982 U.N, study. The leading area in this
growth was Asia, with one half of its exports accounted for by.
four nations Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong0 (21)
Other developing nations have been the fastest growing markets
for the increased exports of developing nations.
B. THE DOMESTIC CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
1. Industry Strategies
During the recession, U.S. chemical companies shut down many
of their unprofitable, marginally profitable, or low-growth lines.
Basic commodities plants were the target for most divestitures;
many were shut down or sold to companies with diverse product
lines, (22)
-------
-47-
Chemical companies have restricted new business efforts to
areas where technological advances permitted cost reduction or en-
couraged development of new products. New growth areas included
engineering plastics, catalysts, electronic chemicals, and other
specialty chemicals. There were distinct signs of a movement away
from hydrocarbons, heavy organics, chloral kali plant products,
and thermoplastics, (23) Many chemical companies realigned corporate
management to achieve tighter control of their operations.
The end of the recession in late 1983 brought more optimistic
expectations for 1984 as housing and automobile sales began to rise.
However, trade magazines also expected chemical companies to monitor
inventories strictly and to keep a tight rein on plant and equipment
expenditures. (24) The large Federal budget and the threat of a new
rise in interest rates were factors in this caution, but the largest
factor may have been the continuing slide in the chemical trade bal-
ance. Other restraining forces were uncertainty over U.S. trade
policy, the effects of decontrol of natural gas prices, and the pos-
sibility of new environmental legislation, especially the amendments
likely to be proposed to TSCA (such as mandatory premarket toxi-
cological testing of chemicals). (25)
Production. A combination of overcapacity, lower demand, and
lower productivity have recently marked the commodity chemical in-
dustry during the general economic recession from 1980 through
1983, and was reflected in declining production. The 1982 output
of chemicals and synthetic fibers was 14% lower than the 1981 out-
put and 16% under the peak year of 1979. The largest decline was
in basic organic chemicals, down 19% in 1982, and synthetic fibers,
down 25%. The smallest decline was in plastics. (26)
Use of chemical plant capacity declined from 85% in 1972, to
78% in 1980, to 66% in 1982, and 63% in the first quarter of 1983.
Some overcapacity in basic chemicals plants is expected to con-
tinue. (27)
-------
-48-
There is a slow recovery in three major market areas for
chemicals agriculture, transportation, and construction in
1984, but the long-term trend may well keep chemical shipments
under their late 1970's1 peaks for several years. It is possible
that production of basic chemicals may not achieve those growth
rates again; foreign competitors have comparative advantages in
terms of energy and materials costs, labor costs, and social/en-
vironmental costs. Production of specialty chemicals, however,
will continue to grow strongly. These are relatively high profit
products, where the U.S. has the advantage in advanced chemical
technologies and processes.
. Finance. As a result of the recession, chemical industry
profits in 1982 fell to the lowest levels since 1973, although
recovery appears to have begun.
Capital expenditures for new plants and equipment by the top
14 firms are projected to remain relatively low through the 1980's
although there was an upturn in early 1984. (28) With some idle
capacity expected to continue into the late 1980's, relatively few
new plants are anticipated. High interest rates over the next few
years would further discourage industry expansion.
Overseas investment by U.S. chemical firms has remained rela-
tively constant since 1980. It is expected to increase because of
the relatively high cost of doing business in the U.S. compared to
the developing world and increased foreign competition.
Employment. Chemical companies cut their workforce in 1982
by 6% because of the recession. Almost three-quarters of the jobs
lost were for production and non-supervisory workers. (29) There
was a further decline of about 2% in 1983. (30) While there will
be some job growth in 1984, many of these jobs may not be refilled
because they can be eliminated by further automation. This will be
especially attractive for jobs where worker safety and health is a
problem.
The most severe cuts in employment in 1982 were in plastics
and fibers (down 6% from 1981 levels and 20% from 1972 levels) and
-------
-49-
in agricultural chemicals (down 506% from 1981, but still up 20%
from 1972). In these chemicals employment will continue to de-
cline, because of increased overseas production and automation
of existing and future pi ants
Employment of scientists and engineers within the chemical
industry has steadily risen over the last ten years to a high in
1982 of over 60,000. A continued rise is expected. (31)
R&D. R&D spending is increasing for the chemical industry.
It was $5,325 million in 1982 and is projected to increase to
$8,655 million by 1986. (32) But R&D as a percentage of absolute
GNP'has declined, especially in basic commodity R&D. Both the
maturity of the industry and the rising costs and risks of intro-
ducing new products and processes may be leading industry to
focus R&D on more short-term, incremental projects. (33) Many
chemical companies are emphasizing valued added drug research and
moving away from R&D in traditional, volume commodity chemicals.
Most R&D funds in 1982 and 1983 went to improving existing
products, (52%). In 1983, only 28% of the funds were spent for
new products and 21% for new chemical processes. (34) In 1984,
there is a projected increase of 10% in industry R&D, with most of
it going to new products and to bioengineering. (35)
Industry/academic R&D cooperation is likely to increase sig-
nificantly. Many people in the chemical industry want to shift
basic research and the earlier stages of development to universi-
ties. (36) But several concerns may complicate this relationship:
conflicts of interest between scientists and product
developers,
the likelihood of legal battles over patent rights, and
potential problems arising from product liability liti-
gation.
The chemical industry is one of the four most R&D intensive
industries, and about 93% of its R&D is supported directly by pri-
vate sector chemical firms. (37) Total spending for R&D in indus-
trial chemicals increased 47% from 1971-1981. (38)
-------
-50-
According to an NBS observer, a number of factors will en-
courage R&D spending: (39)
-- the Economic Recovery Act of 1981;
-- the need for innovations in process technology to
increase efficiency of existing and of new operations;
-- the hope of using alternative feedstocks;
-- the need to optimize plant operations and management
and gain flexibility in new plant design to meet market
demands;
the desire to train scientists and engineers in industry-
related fields;
-- the possibilities of new processes and products via bio-
technology;
the promise of discovering or of acquiring higher value
added specialty products such as Pharmaceuticals; and
-- the need to offset rising energy and raw material costs.
Pilot Plants and Scale Up. Small-unit testing is important
for large chemical plants, to prove the validity of basic
reactions; discover and address secondary reactions and potential
environmental and health hazards; boost yields to economic levels;
solve incremental problems; and test construction materials and
processes for larger units. ;
The growing complexity of process technology and higher
financial stakes are leading the industry to be increasingly con-
servative in scaling from smaller to larger units. Fewer risks
are undertaken. At the same time, computer modeling and optimiza-
tion paradigms can cheaply and quickly predict scale-up problems
and needs, obviating the need for pilot testing.
There is a trend toward tieing together process steps at
early stages of plant scale-up,, This is driving up the cost of
scale-ups, but it also allows early detection and correction of
the buildup of unwanted by-products.
For basic commodities, e.g., petrochemicals, plant scale-up
will be increasingly challenged given the likelihood of changing
feedstocks. Heavier distillates and residual oils, higher tern-
-------
-51-
peratures and pressures, and more active catalysts are compli-
cating the scale-up of chemical processes. Pressures for scale-
up competition and cost are reducing the typical 2-3 year
pilot phase to a few months. (40)
2. Size and Location
"World class" producers (defined as the largest volume pro-
ducers of bulk chemicals) are increasing in scale; for example,
Cosdan's styrene plant in the 1950's produced 20 million pounds
per year as top producer; in 1980, American Hoechst completed a
900 million pound per year plant in Texas. In the future, however,
such increases in scale will more often be located in foreign
countries than in the U.S. The only world class plants built in
the U.S. during the next decade will likely be -located in Alaska
at sites near available feedstocks and barge, ship, or pipeline
transportation.
"Energy supplies may have some indirect effects on the
location of petrochemical production.... A number of oil-
producing countries have begun construction of massive petro-
chemical facilities, attempting to move from simple producers
of crude oil to exporters of a wide variety of processed
hydrocarbons. Many of these investments are being made more
on the basis of national prestige and development (and in an
atmosphere of abundant capital) than on strict economic con-
siderations. Their existence may make it unprofitable for
U.S. companies to build similar facilities at home." (41)
The top ten chemical producing states, in 1980, in descending
order were: Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, California, Louisi-
ana, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Indiana. (42) With
the move toward specialty chemicals in the U.S., the average plant
size will decrease. Sites with favorable transportation, water,
and fuel availability will also be harder to find. This may induce
some gradual changes in the pattern of plant location, but they
will not be dramatic shifts.
The long-term trend toward migration of the chemical industry
to the Gulf States may be weakening. (43) While the chemical in-
-------
-52-
dustry as a whole grew 29% during 1970-1980, in Louisiana the
industry only increased 22.6%, and in Texas, the leading chemical
producing state, it only grew 10.7%, The fastest growth is occur-
ring in California, 47.8% between 1977-1980, in spite of the fact
that California environmental regulations are considered the
strictest in the nation. (Here growth is measured on the basis of
value of shipments minus the costs of materials and energy Dur-
ing the same period, production went up by 6%. Since 1980, world-
wide economic problems have pushed all measures of growth into a
slump; cyclical recovery is beginning in 1983-84. However, migra-
tion trends remain the same.) There are indications of renewed
interest in sites in the Great Lakes States.
Geographic proximity of industry plants to raw materials will
continue to be important in the strategic planning in this industry.
The hazards involved in chemical manufacturing and waste dis-
posal are leading to increasing public debate about acceptable sites,
but these have so far not been major factors in decisions about chem-
ical facility siting. A recent Conservation Foundation Study showed
that environmental constraints rarely block siting choices. (44)
Siting could, however, be significantly more controversial in the
future. This would tend to lock in the present location pattern.
The chemical industry is constantly modernizing, upgrading,
and maintaining its plants. Much of this renewal is on-site, but
the industry will continue to phase out some low profit, ineffi-
cient plants. During the run-down period, firms will likely defer
maintenance of the plants, leading to pollution increases; and
after the plant is permanently closed, the machinery exposed to
toxic and hazardous substances and the waste disposal facilities
may remain highly dangerous to public and environmental health,
Issues that must soon be confronted by industry and govern-
ment are how the dismantling and disposal of obsolete plants and
clean-up of the grounds should be regulated.
-------
-53-
3. Product Trends
Petrochemicals. The U.S. will maintain leadership in new or
special grades of petrochemicals because of its technological lead
in chemicals and chemical processes. (45) But production of bulk
chemicals will tend to stabilize and possibly even decline in the
U.S. A growing proportion of bulk chemicals will be produced in
off-shore locations and Third World countries.
Other Organic Chemicals. The long-term prospects for organic
chemicals will be influenced by:
the demands of end-product markets, namely, Pharmaceu-
ticals, gasoline octane improvers, pesticides, synthetic
detergents, oil field chemicals, and protective coatings
requiring new and improved intermediate organic chemicals;
increasinq cost and decreasing availability of fossil fuels
for use as energy and as feedstock;
-- reduction ot excess productive capacity in industrial
nations, with closing of low-profit, inefficient plants;
-- increasing international competition and export promotion
programs of foreign nations;
-- the siting of large plants in gas- and oil-rich countries;
the entrance of Saudi Arabia and Canada into the field by
1986 and Indonesia, Mexico, Singapore, and other Middle
East nations by 1990, significantly changing the inter-
national structure of the organic chemicals industry;
-- decline of the U.S. share of the large-volume, commodity
organic chemical market, with the U.S. remaining a major
supplier of small-volume, specialty organic chemicals.
Urea formaldehyde may drop in production due to potential
government regulation and public concern over health risks. Long-
term prospects for using methanol as a primary automotive engine
fuel and as a feedstock for hydrocarbon production are leading to
increased R&D to improve energy efficiency of methanol manufac-
turing processes. Multifunction monomers are making it possible
to formulate protective coatings, inks, and adhesive cheaply using
radiation rather than heat. Biotechnology will provide new
sources of organic chemicals based on use of waste material - but
production is not expected in any volume until the late 1980's.
-------
-54-
Agricultural Cheitricals. Reduced domestic demand coupled with
increasing foreign penetration of the U.S. market is forcing U.S.
manufacturers to lower prices of nitrogenous fertilizers. But
rising natural gas costs will increase the prices of ammonia.
Increases in the world demand for grain may result in slight
increases in domestic consumption of phosphate fertilizers, but
most demands will be met by existing stocks. While the proximity
of U.S. manufacturers to phosphate rock resources and to seaports
will act to maintain current production levels, the low cost of
foreign products will eventually erode the U.S. share of the world
market.
The rising costs of agricultural chemicals and new concern over
groundwater contamination and non-point source water pollution may
lead to a continued reduction in their production. The only
growth expected over the next five years is for herbicides associ-
ated with no-till agricultures. Competition will force smaller
companies out of the market and lead to increased emphasis on selec-
tive herbicides, growth regulators, and synthetic pyrethroids.
Drugs. The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is losing ground to
foreign competition, according to a National Academy of Engi-
neering (NAE) study released in July 1983. (46) U.S. share of world
pharmaceutical R&D expenditures has fallen from more than 60% in
the 1950's to less than 30% in 1982. The number of U.S. owned new
drugs entering U.S. clinical trials has steadily dropped, from 60
per year through the 1960's to 25 per year in 1982. Foreign
levels have remained constant at 20 per year. (47)
Small U.S. pharmaceutical firms originate fewer drugs than
before 1960 and depend more on foreign firms for licensing
new products.
The percentage of world pharmaceutical production
occurring in the U.S. has fallen from 50% in 1962, to 38%
in 1968, to 27% in 1978. U.S. share of world pharmaceu-
tical exports has fallen from more than 30% before 1960
to less than 15% in 1983.
-------
-55-
Telematics. Telematics the technologies and systems of
computers, telecommunications, and information -- is affecting all
facets of society and industry, a worldwide revolution comparable
to the Industrial Revolution. Significant direct impacts will
probably first come from monitoring, in computer-aided design and
manufacturing, computer modeling, and the broad area of informa-
tion management and availability. Indirect impacts on chemicals
and the chemical industry will emerge as telematics alters social
systems such as work patterns, industry organization and manage-
ment, transportation, and economic and political operations. (48)
Three-dimensional visualization and design optimization capa-
bilities of computers are already being used in computer-aided
design and manufacturing. Expanding CAD/CAM applications include:
'rapid scale-up from bench to several million pounds per
day operations;
flexible, individualized, rapid plant .design, saving labor
costs and reducing waste. While destandardization may
make it difficult to generalize about or predict a poten-
tial occupational hazard, computers can help pinpoint the
source of a hazard and analyze possible design solutions;
-- highly integrated plant design that ensures that sub-
systems will mesh and that retrofits will perform as
desired.
Computers and other modern instruments are assisting in auto-
mating the chemical plant testing and manufacturing process. (49)
Computer controlled bench-scale testing units and six technicians
can now perform the testing and recording that 25-30 technicians
would do. New mass spectrometers trace catalyst poisons that once
went undiscovered. Carbon analyzers, refractometers, and chroma-
tographs provide instant and simultaneous data on product streams.
On-line electronic instruments are providing information in
minutes that, under the batch-mode, would take hours. Advanced
mathematical models and computer simulations are providing new in-
sights into chemical processes, encouraging the development of
increasingly sophisticated chemical data banks within firms and
permitting testing of chemicals on increasingly smaller scales.
-------
-56-
Development-of'microprocessors enables the placement of ad-
vanced digital control technologies at key unit operations
throughout chemical plants. For example, in petrochemical com-
plexes, computers control furnaces, fractionating towers, cracked
gas compressors, and other downstream units. Use of computers for
process control is greatly assisting efforts to improve energy
efficiency and lower waste by-products. Computer-aided design of
plants is facilitating maximization of energy and feedstock use,
assisting development of fully integrated manufacturing and waste
disposal systems, and lowering overall pollution levels.
The move toward more comprehensive instrumentation has driven
up the cost of pilot plants, but the use of computer simulations
has decreased the amount of time required for, and risks involved
in, scale-ups of plants.
Computers and robots will replace human mental activity in
ways similar to machinery's displacement of human physical
functions. This may lead to:
reductions in middle management, with top management
accessing information directly, thereby lowering overhead
costs to industry;
-- reductions in blue-collar jobs one estimate foresees a
labor decline in manufacturing from the current 22% of
the labor force to a 3-5% by 2000; although most chemical-
industries, being already highly automated, will be less
drastically affected; and
increased pressures upon government and industry to re-
train displaced workers. (50)
Centralized data testing and analysis and information pro-
cessing is increasing. The Chemical Abstracts Service is accessed
via computers and telephones by chemical companies and interested
parties worldwide. The American Institute of Chemical Engineers
and the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology are joining
forces to address new technologies, while lowering individual R&D
and testing costs.
Expenditures for information services will increase. The top
four chemical companies are spending an average of 54 mil lion per
-------
-57-
year for library materials, on-line bibliographic and numeric reference
services, on-line technical processing, computer system support,
telephone and telecommunications, and records management. (51)
Additional information costs, including external and internal re-
search reports, marketing information services, competitor analy-
ses, and publications are often proprietary and not included in
information budgeting.
Large decentralized networks are forming among institutions,
regions, and individuals. Through telematics, a regional office
can integrate fully into the day-to-day operations of a company,
increasing overall efficiency while decreasing autonomy.
A trend towards continuous and pervasive compilation of in-
formation is emerging from increasing reliance on telematics to
sort, process, store, and transmit data. For instance, every time a
person or company contacts an institution he" generates information
which can be incorporated into a data base. A hospital stay, a job
interview, a phone call to the doctor or plumber or lover, a plane
trip, a drugstore purchase all could contribute information on
the individual and, combined with other inputs, on the population.
The capability for collecting microdata may affect marketing strate-
gies, health records, risk exposures, and many other interactions
between people and the man-made environment. Company data can be
compiled and analyzed in new ways. But this capability will also
give rise to important and complex issues involving rights to pri-
vacy, ownershi-p of information and misuse of data.
C. CHANGES IN CHEMICAL FEEDSTOCKS, ENERGY USE, AND WASTE MANAGE-
MENT
1. Feedstocks and Energy
The feedstock mix of the chemical industry is slowly shifting,
driven mainly by factors external to the industry itself:
-- the technology of feedstock utilization,
-- the costs and availability of petroleum and natural gas,
-------
-58-
-- the balance between chemical feedstock, fuel, and energy
generation uses of petroleum and natural gas,
regulations affecting processes and waste management,
-- economic costs associated with retrofit, construction, and
operations.
Energy costs are replacing capital costs as the main driver
of decisions on processes, pathways, and feedstocks, especially
for commodity chemicals. (52)
The raw material hydrocarbon feedstock bases for organic
chemicals will be undergoing changes over the next few decades.
Feedstock use will change slowly, as there is substantial
investment in the process infrastructure of current feedstocks,
especially petrochemical intermediates with high vertical and hori-
zontal integration.
The quality of basic petrochemicals as feedstocks will decrease
and become more mixed. As costs rise, the first stage will be to
make more efficient use of petrochemical feedstocks rather than
shift feedstock. While the use of petrochemical feedstocks will
decline slowly, coal and lower grade crudes will replace petroleum
and gas and new hydrocarbon sources will be used to generate the
same petrochemical feedstocks through coal gasification to natural
gas substitute or liquefaction to a petroleum substitute or direct
from coal. What shift does occur may be first to coal and coal
gasification and liquefaction products (with high capital costs)
and then increasingly to biomass.
The chemical industry uses:
10% of the 18 thousand cubic feet of natural gas produced
each year,
6% of the 15 million barrels of liquid hydrocarbons pro-
duced each day, and
20% of all industrial power. (53)
Economic incentives, availability of raw materials, and energy
costs are stimulating switches to new production processes. For
-------
-59-
example, pyrolysis routes to benzene are replacing traditional
processes. New processes can give different mixes of by-products,
impurities, wastes; the pyrolysis route to benzene often contami-
nates it with polynuclear aromatics. Increasing demand for fuel
oil may cause a search to alternative sources of petrochemicals
and derived products, such as plastic from coal or plant crops.
Some strategies being used are shown in Exhibit 4.
As the use of lower grade ores and recycling increases, the
demand for improved separation technology will increase. -Separa-
tion aids such as flotation chemicals will be increasingly used,
creating new discharges. (54)
There is increasing modification in the industry to allow for
a diversity of feedstock, both between petroleum and coal and
among petroleum grades.
Coal is likely to be a significant feedstock by the early
1990's. Eastman Kodak in 1983 built a 500 million pound/year acetic
anhydride plant based on new process technology to utilize syngas
from coal the first commercial U.S. use of synfuels technology. (55)
Currently, while variable production costs are cheaper from coal,
the high capital outlay has prevented many companies from invest-
ing in new coal-based processes.
Another possible feedstock is biomass. Although production of
ethanol from corn is becoming increasingly competitive at commodity
levels, commercial production of commodity organic chemicals from
biomass via biotechnological processes is not expected until the
mid- to late-1990's. (56) In the long term, fermentation and other
biotechnology tools (e.g., enzymes, plant and animal cell cultures)
will be used in the production of organic chemicals. (57) Problems
in the scale-up of biochemical engineering process include heat
removal, mixing, sterilization, instrumentation and controls, cataly-
sis, and water supply, but experts expect that bioprocesses will
eventually be used for production of higher value added chemicals
and some commodity chemicals. (58)
-------
-60-
tXHIBIT 4
FEEDSTOCK SECURITY POSITIONS OF SOME LEADING CHEMICAL FIRMS
Chemical Company
Oupont
Dow
Union Carbide
Monsanto
W. R. Grace
Ameri-can Cyanamid
Celanese
PPG Industries
Hydrocarbon Base
Merger with Conoco, expanded oil/gas
exploration effort through recent
acquisition (Terrapet)
Owns oil/gas properties; recently
sold domestic oil and gas reserves to
Apache; still owns Freeport, Texas
crude oil processing refinery
Purchases feedstock supplies
Oil/gas exploration revenues indirectly
support feedstock needs; has coal
resources
Oil/gas exploration revenues indirectly
support some feedstock needs; plans
expanded energy exploration effort
through subsidiary (Union Texas
Petroleum)
Purchases feedstock supplies
Purchases feedstoc'k supplies
Purchases most feedstock supplies
Source: T. C. O'Brien, NBS
and Industrial Biotechnology,
Washington, D.C.: National
Bureau of Standards, July 1982,
p. 22.
-------
-61-
Biotechnology, via chemoautotrophic microorganisms, can also
provide a range of organic compounds from hydrogen and carbon
dioxide, which are available from coal following reaction with
steam. (59)
The commodity organic chemical industry views its current
investments in biotechnology as a means to keep its options open.
(See Exhibit 5). The industry hopes that this technology will, be-
fore the end of the decade, produce higher value added organic
chemicals. Application of biotechnology on an industrial scale
for the production of "traditional" commodity organic chemicals is
not expected much before the end of the century. Because of the
difficulties that will be encountered in displacing commodity
organic chemicals from petroleum feedstocks, the value added com-
ponent from biotechnology may be a comparatively small $1 billion.
However, biotechnology may have a significantly greater market
impact in the production of "non-traditional" commodity organic
chemicals such as biopolymers. (60) ' '.
Depending upon the economics and politics of producing
organic chemicals via biotechnology, biomass could become an impor-
tant feedstock for the production of organic chemicals. However,
considerable research effort must take place to improve the
productivity and economics of the biotechnological processes for
biomass conversion that are under consideration. Critical to such
an improvement for bioprocesses will be advances, and innovations
in biotechnology "tools," such as biocatalyst, recombinant DMA,
cell culture, and fermentation technologies. Further, if biotech-
nology is to be applied on the industrial scale envisioned by or-
ganic chemical producers, innovation must also occur in bioprocess
engineering technology areas, such as process monitoring and con-
trol, product separation and recovery, aseptic operation, and
process intensification. (61)
-------
-62-
EXHIBIT S
BIOTECHNOLOGY ACTIVITIES OF LEADING
U.S. CHEMICAL PRODUCERS
1982
Ranfc. Sales Company
1 Dupont
Classification
Basic chemicals
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
zn
Dow Basic chemicals
Chemical
EXXON Petroleum
Monsanto Basic chemicals
Union
Carbide
Shell
011
Celanese
Standard
011 of
Indtana
W. R.
Grace
Allied
Corporation
Phillips Petroleum
Petroleum
Basic chemicals
Petroleu m
Basic chemicals
Petroleum
Specialty chemicals
Basic chemicals
Atlantic
Richfield
Eastman
Kodak
Mobil 011
Hercules
Gulf 011
Rohn &
Haas
American
Cyanamld
Stauffer
American
Hoechst
Petroleum
Photo equipment
Petroleur.1
Basic chemicals
Petroleum
Basic chemicals
Basic chemicals
Basic chemicals
Basic chemicals
Biotechnology investments
In-houseEquity Ownership,
RiO
Caltcch, Harvard, Univ.
of Maryland, Hew England
nuclear Corporation
Collaborative Genetics,
Collaborative Research .
Ingene
Cold Spring Harbor, MIT .
Oiogcri, Genentech,
Genex, Collagen, Harvard
Rockefeller, Washington
University
Cetus, Cell tech
Yale
Cetus
Agripartners
Biologicals, Calgene
Collagen, Genetics Institute
Salk Institute Bio-
technology Industrial
Associates (SIBIA)
Adria Laboratories
Advanced Genetic
Sciences
Molecular Genetics
Cytogcn
Massachusetts-General
SOURCES: T.C. O'Brien, NBS and Industrial Biotechnology. Washington,
B.C.: National Bureau of Standards, July 1982.
Office of Technology Assessment, Commercial Biotechnology. An Inter-
national Analysis. Washington, O.c.: u.5. GPO, January lyei, pp. s>/-
70. 100-101, 416-418.
And other sources.
-------
-63-
The technology already exists for cost-effective biologi-
cal production of some commodity chemicals. Commodity chemicals
most likely to be made from biomass in the future are ethanol,
acetone, isopropanol, acetic acid, citric acid, propanoic acid,
fumaric acid, butanol, 2t3-butanediol, methyl ethyl ketone, gly-
cerin, tetrahydrofuran, and adipic acid, according to a recent
report by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment
(OTA). But OTA also concluded that because the chemical composi-
tion of biomass is different from that of petroleum and because
microorganisms have a wide range of activities, it is likely that
"the most important commodity chemicals produced from biomass will
be, not chemicals that directly substitute for petrochemicals, but
other chemicals that together define a new structure for the chemi-
cal industry." (62) Genetic manipulation may produce microorganisms
with characteristics such as tolerance to increased levels of products
during bioprocess reactions, tolerance to higher temperatures, and
faster rates of production,, Environmental applications of biotech-
nology will also be important, for example in toxic waste degrada-
tion. Regulation will be a major factor in the development and tim-
ing of these applications since they will call for release of organ-
isms directly into the environment.
In spite of current perceptions of an "oil glut", total oil
production will probably peak around the year 2000, and develop-
ment of new natural gas reserves, usually associated with oil dis-
coveries, have been less than production for over a decade,,
Continued.dependence on petroleum as the major feedstock will
depend on the oil production of Saudi Arabia and its economic and
political stability, and on other factors such as U.S. and cilobal
economic growth; energy conservation; oil production and stability
of other OPEC nations; and energy contributions from nuclear, coal,
solar, and other sources. (63)
A chemical industry transition will take place in the future,
with a shift from oil and natural gas to coal and to biomass feed-
-------
-64-
stocks. Economics will dictate the timing of this transition.
Technological innovation will be an essential component in the
shift. The transition to alternative feedstocks will stimulate
evolution and structural change in the chemical industry.
Emphasis on energy efficiency and increasing use of process
heat will spur the use of by-products and wastes for energy
generation.
2. Waste Management Problems and Opportunities
The Scope of the Problem. Although OTS does not directly
address the regulation or tracking of hazardous wastes, TSCA
does cover waste disposal and OTS deals with related problems
of incineration and recycling of hazardous chemicals. The mis-
sion of OTS within EPA will be shaped by the. regulatory policy
environment. Management of hazardous waste, expecially toxic
waste, is crystallizing public concern and policy response in
many areas peripheral to waste issues. In the 1980's, it is
the issue around which lines are drawn between environmental-
ists and industry, and which patterns state and Federal regula-
tory strategies. It is also a key issue in industry planning
and financing. As discussed in Chapter 4, media attention and
the dramatic personal nature of environmental and health prob-
lems raised by toxic wastes have made them the focal point of a
broader range of concerns about chemicals, health, the environ-
ment, and balancing responsibility for maintaining the safety
and quality of health and the environment.
The technology and economics of industrial waste manaqeme-it
will also help determine the processes and products that indus-
tries manufacture and, consequently, the demand for action under
TSCA. Thus OTS needs to keep up with advances in industrial
waste management technology and practice as well as public and
political responses to the continuing problem of hazardous waste
management.
-------
-65-
Litigation and regulation regarding hazardous wastes will be
a focus of political and industrial action at least through
the 1980's. Technological, economic, and management strategies to
minimize risks are necessarily long-term.
In late 1983, EPA revised its 1980 estimate of total hazardous
wastes in the U.S. upwards by 375%, to 150 million tons. (64) The
chemical industry generates a little over 70% of this. An Associa-
of State and Territorial Solid Waste Management Officials survey
estimated that about 255-275 million tons of known .and tracked
hazardous wastes are added to the environment each year, in addi-
tion to "millions of tons" of unregulated and exempted hazardous
waste, (65) This survey was done for the Congressional Office of
Technology.Assessment, which estimated that about 10% of all
hazardous wastes are produced by unregulated small producers. (66)
Nine firms account for over 50% of all commercial waste dis-
posal and treatment. They have increased their permitted landfill
capacity and increased their chemical treatment capacity, but
since these increases were mostly in or near existing sites, there
is still a serious shortage of accessible sites in certain areas
of the country. (67)
While the total volume of wastes is growing, the volume of
waste treated by these nine firms declined from 3.7 million wet
metric tons in 1980-81 to 3.6 million wet metric tons this year. (68)
The effort to separate hazardous from non-hazardous waste should
slow the growth in the volume of wastes treated off-site. Some
large-volume waste streams have been removed from the EPA's hazard-
ous waste list, e.g., certain paint sludges and pickled liquor
sludges.
Reflecting differences in political priorities, many states
have more stringent definitions of "hazardous" than does the
Federal government. Under California law, for example, 15 million
tons of hazardous waste were produced in California in 1980, while
-------
-66-
EPA estimated waste generation at 2.6 million tons. (69) Other
states have similar definitions but use different measures, thus
arriving at a different number for total volume of hazardous waste.
Often State and EPA estimates differ by an order of magnitude.
There is no internationally accepted definition of hazardous
waste. (70)
Many problems of hazardous waste management result not from
the lack of sophisticated control technology but rather from hap-
hazard awareness, use, enforcement, and incentive for the avail-
able technologies. There are severe gaps in worker education,
public understanding, and the effectiveness of the economic and
regulatory framework under which industry and waste uuinaymnent
companies operate. RCRA mandates coordinated tracking of wastes
from "cradle-to-grave," but it is far from certain that the
manifest system really works. 'Ihe recent book Hazardous Waste In
America notes that the publicity given to waste incidents and the
demand for tightly controlled, minimum-hazard waste management has
led to a blind and universal public distrust of all waste opera-
tions- -- including the well-managed, latest-technology ones. (71)
A 1980 survey showed a majority of people would accept new facili-
ties only if the sites were at least 100 miles away from their
homes. ('72).
Industry, especially larger, financially well-off companies,
has i:ioved towards treating and disposing of much of its waste
on-site. Dow and DuPont each dispose of about 95% of their waste
on-site. Across all industry, about 80% of hazardous wastes are
managed on-site-. (73) The disappearance of available waste dis-
posal sites has created a disproportionate burden on smaller com-
panies without the land and waste volume to provide for on-site
waste disposal.
The costs of off-site chemical waste treatment are up 20%
from 1981-1982 and are expected to continue rising. (74') The
reasons include:
-- closure of some operations, e.g., landfills, due to
public opposition or regulatory compliance problems;
-------
-67-
capital expenditures required to comply with state
and Federal regulations;
new EPA requirements for owners of sites to have
extensive liability insurance.
While the Superfund law allocated $1.6 billion for cleanup of
uncontrolled hazardous waste sites and for compensation, OTA esti-
mated that cleanup of the 15,000 uncontrolled sites of previous
disposals so far identified would cost $10 to $40 billion. (75)
See Exhibit 6.
EXHIBIT 6
Quoted Prices for Major Hazardous Waste Firms in 1981
Type of
waf tc management
Landfill
Land treatment
Incineration clean
Chemical treatnv.it
Resource recovery
Deep well injection
Transportation
Type or form
of wat let
Drummed
Bulk
Type:
Acids/ alkalis
Odorous waste
Low risk hazardous waste
(e.g., oil and gas drilling muds)
Hazardous
Extremely hazardous
All
Relatively clean liquids, high-
Btu value
Liquids
Solids, highly toxic liquids
Acids/ alkalines
Cyanides, heavy metals, highly
toxic waste
All
Oily wauewater
Toxic rinse water
Price 1981
SO.o-4.SO.9l /gal
(SJS-S50/S5 gal drum)
SO.19-SO.28/gal
S0.02-$0.09/gal
$(0.05)*-S0.20/gal
50.20-SO.90/gj)
SI.50-SJ.00/gal
S0.08-SO.J5 /gal
S0.25-SJ.OO/gal
S0.25-$1.00/gal
S0.06-SO.I5/gal
SO.JO-SI.OO/gal
S0.15/tonmile
S/ tonne
1981
$168-5240
S5J-S8J '
$13-5210
SJO
S1J-S29
S30-S80
S50-SMO
$5-24
$(IJ)'-$5J
$5J-$2J7
SJ95-S791
$21 .$92
$66-$791
$66-$264
$16-$40
$[J2-$264
* Some cement kilns and light aggregate manufacturers
are now paying for waste.
Source: Samuel Epstein, Lester Brown, and Carl Pope,
Hazardous Waste in America. San Francisco: Sierra Club
Books, 1982, p. 549.
OTA also estimates that the $5 billion spent on satisfying
U.S. regulation on hazardous waste disposal in 1983 will grow to
$12 billion by 1990. (76)
-------
-68-
At least 20 industrial waste exchanges, i.e., information
clearinghouses that provide information on specific wastes to
companies interested in using the wastes as raw materials, are
now in operation. (77)
The variation in state regulation of waste disposal causes
extensive legal and illegal interstate traffic in hazardous wastes
(see Chapter 4). Regional differences encourage companies to seek
the cheapest solution or to avoid regulation altogether by midnight
dumping. Companies in Pennsylvania have to ship wastes out of
state at high cost because of the scarcity of local landfills. (78)
Midnight dumping is a serious problem. EPA estimated in 1979
(before most of the RCRA regulations) that 90% of hazardous wastes
were mismanaged either through ignorance or deliberate avoidance
of regulation. (79) The primary cause of unsound disposal was
identified as insecure surface impoundment. Other independent
estimates have supported this. (80) Transport of hazardous wastes
will be a growing concern, as discussed in Chapter 4.
As the use of non-petroleum feedstocks increases, the amount
of waste generated will rise sharply. Secondary feedstocks such
as heavier petroleum grades, coal, and syngas all generate more
waste during their creation as well as creating more wastes during
their utilization by the chemicals industry. The chemical process
industry has been geared to maximize use of petroleum.
The shift to biological-based feedstock would require aqueous
reaction conditions, generating large amounts of liquid wastes.'
But these wastes are generally much less toxic than those of
petroleum-based chemical manufacture. Coal, however, often con-
tains significant amounts of heavy metals and radioactive com-
pounds.
Decisions will have to be made in the present with the cer-
tain knowledge that future science and technology will reveal new
concerns about the toxicity of wastes and the ineffectiveness of
various management options. For example, in the 1950's dioxin was
-------
-69-
known to be a toxic compound but was also believed to degrade
rapidly in the soil; 25 years later, bitter experience revealed
the shortcomings of older technology. The last word on dioxin's
effect on humans is not yet in. (81)
Technological Options.' There is no single best technology to
deal with all toxic wastes. Incineration and other high-tempera-
ture processes and. recovery and recycling are the main "permanent"
means of managing wastes (see Exhibit 7). Incineration and other
high-temperature processes such as molten salt, plasma arc, super
critical water (374+°C, 218+atm), and pyrolysis, despite their
high costs, are becoming more popular. While these technologies
break down most organics, even polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB's),
they need effective scrubbers and they create ash and scrubber resi-
due which, in turn, requires disposal. A manufacturer may be relieved
of responsibility for a hazardous chemical by changing it into a dif-
ferent .chemical substance by incineration.
The EPA Office of Research and Development, Oil and Hazardous
Materials Spills Branch, has developed a mobile incinerator which,
operating at 1200°C, will destroy PCB's. Highly halogenated organics
such as PCB's are the most resistant of toxic substances to degra-
dation. (82)
Other more advanced thermal technologies still in the develop-
ment stage include plasma destruction, where gases are heated to
several thousand degrees in an electric field.
In October 1983, EPA estimated that 325 incinerators were
operating at between 240 and 275 facilities. About half of these
were operated by the chemical industry. (83)
Although process improvement, recycling, separation of wastes,
recovery, etc. can significantly reduce the volume and toxicity of
wastes, there are irreducible limits to this. Before 1981, only
about 2% of waste products were recycled or reclaimed (84) but this
is now increasing. Recovery of usable materials from wastes is ex-
pensive and the materials are often contaminated, in the end run re-
-------
-70-
EXHIBIT 7
WASTE MANAGEMENT:
SOUNDNESS3 and METHODS5
Sound Management
(10% of wastes)
incineration (6%)
Secure landfill (23!)
Recovered (2%}
Unsound Management
(90% of wastes)
Unlined surface impoundments (48%)
Land disposal (30%)
Uncontrolled incineration. (10%)
Other (2%)
MANAGEMENT
METHOD
LANDFILL
Drum
Bulk
LAND TREATMENT
INCINERATION
Clean, high-
BTU liquids
Other organic
liquids
Solids, highly
toxic liquids
CHEMICAL TREATMENT
Acids, alkalis
Cyanides, heavy
COST
($/MT)
$110-240
$ 33- 83
$ 5- 24
$(-13)-53
$ 53-237
$395-791
$ 13- 92
$ 66-791
RECEIVED
(1000 MT)
1990
331
94
661
% CHANGE
1981-1983
+1%
+ 17%
+18%
-10%
% CAPACITY
UTILIZED
5%
22%
79%
44%
metals, highly
toxic wastes
RESOURCE RECOVERY $ 66-264
DEEP-WELL INJECTION
Oily wastewater $ 13- 32
Toxic rinses $132-264
60
385
+603
-19%
32%
39%
aSource: B. Feder, "The E.P.A. gets Tough on Waste," New York Times,
Dec. 22, 1980.
Sources: Samuel Epstein, Lester Brown, and Carl Pope, Hazardous Waste
in America. San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1982, pp. 9, 549; Office
of Technology Assessment, Technologies and Management Strategies for
Hazardous Waste Control, Washington, O.C.: U.S. GPO. March 1983,
ppV T5V 129"," 130.
-------
-71-
sulting in problems both in reuse and eventual disposal. Increased
recycling of products containing chemicals -- such as rubber, ceram-
ics, oils and greases, metals, solvents, and waste acids -- will
probably cause impurities to build up, concentrating any toxic con-
taminants if the recycling process is not carefully monitored. Ad-
ditionally, new cross-contamination problems could arise from mix-
ing during recycling. (85)
Recycling of materials -- whether using potential wastes for
feedstock or energy or recycling products within a single plant --
is inherently attractive and is expanding, but is limited by the
capital investment in fixed process technology of most industries
and by the large volume of waste. Monsanto, instead of landfill ing
hazardous dibasic acid, a by-product of pesticide manufacture, has
made the dibasic acid available to utilities for use in sulfur
scrubbers. (8'6) Estimates of maximum contribution of recovery and
recycling together range around 20%.(87)
Microbial engineering is perhaps the most promising tech-
nology for the long-term future, expanding the use of sewage
treatment strategies to include purposefully engineered mixtures
of micro-organisms to break down toxic substances in wastes. Other
biochemical techniques are also expected to increase. Some experts
estimate that the application of enzyme technology in waste treat-
ment may reach $200 million by 1987, a ten-fold increase over the
1982 market. (88)
New biological wastewater treatment systems conform to EPA's
definition of best practical technology currentl-y available
(BPT). They provide effective control for most toxic pollutants,
removing 95% of volatile toxic organic pollutants, 87% of base/
neutral pollutants, and 77% of acids. This method of waste treat-
ment will increase in use in coming years. (89)
while recovery and recycling will increase their portion of
hazardous waste management, significant economic and technical
barriers remain to both biological and physical technologies.
-------
-72-
While containment and monitoring technologies are available for
relatively safe landfill/treatment facilities, the problems for
the coming years are in ensuring the use of the BPT, allocation
of the costs of safe waste disposal and bringing the many
existing disposal sites up to acceptable safety levels.
Management Patterns. In a 1982 survey of the chemical indus-
try, the Chemical Manufacturers Association (CMA) asked the com-
panies how their waste disposal methods had changed over recent
years. (90) The results, shown in Exhibit 8, represent about 112
chemical companies with a little over half of total chemical indus-
try sales and employment. While the survey did not investigate the
volume of wastes treated by various methods, it did reveal the
sharply increased attention to recycling. Also noteworthy were the
decrease in storage and increase in incineration, especially on-
site incineration.
EXHIBIT 8
CHANGES IN-INDUSTRY WASTE DISPOSAL PROCEDURES
Waste Disposal Procedures
Frequency of Response
Recent Use of
Disposal Methods
More Same Less
Recycled
Stored on-site
Stored off-site
Incinerated on-site
Incinerated off-site
Landfilled on-site
Landfilled off-site
74%
16%
' 4%
36%
43%
3%
39%
21%
24%
8%
11%
15%
13%
24%
42%
30%
5%
12%
30%
30%
Method Not
Used Recently
5%
18%
58%
48%
30%
54%
7%
Source: Peat. Warwick, Mitchell & Co.. An IndVstry"Survey of Chemical
Company Activities to Reduce Unreasonable Risk, Final Report,
February 11, 1983, p. 58.
Twenty-one companies cited examples of other recent methods
of waste disposal. The most common cited example was deepwell
injection. Eight companies reported using deepwell injection:
three more, three the same, and two less. Five companies reported
they are using more process changes to reduce wastes.
-------
-73-
Other disposal methods which were cited as being used more
are:
chemical fixation;
sell for recovery or use;
detoxification; and
pyrolysis.
chemical destruction;
biological treatment;
biodegradation;
neutralization;
Invisible Wastes. The management of toxic and hazardous
wastes is already recognized as a key issue in chemicals produc-
tion. Of less prominence but equal significance are compounds
which are dispersed unnoticed throughout the environment rather
than confined to specific sites. They are released through normal
wear and tear of use, corrosion, accidents, and uncontrolled small-
scale disposal (by industry and consumer), as well as waste site
leakage. There is no accurate way of tracking these environmental
pollutants. The net toxicity of the chemical load they place on
the environment is unknown.
Much of the problem is invisible, with unregulated production
of toxic and hazardous wastes by individuals, homes, municipali-
ties, as well as illegal use of wastes as supplemental fuels.
Another unknown is small-scale waste generators (producing less
than one ton a month of anything), and they are currently exemp-
ted from regulation. Incineration can sometimes be classified as
small waste generators by adding a heat exchanger. Additionally,
wastes burned for fuel are often exempted, and may add to the un-
controlled dispersal of toxic substances,
D0 RISK MANAGEMENT
1. Industry and Risk Reduction. The 1982 CMA survey of the chem-
ical industry, already cited, found that 88% of the companies
responding had established chemical hazard assessment programs*
These programs responded primarily to new products and processes
(85% and 76%, respectively, of new products and processes were
assessed). However, a majority (57%) of new formulations of
* This section should be read in the context of Chapter 4,
Section B, dealing with political, legal, and social issues
such as liability and compensation.
-------
-74-
existing products were also examined for hazard. (91) Routine
hazard assessment of existing products occurred at a lower level,
mostly in response to external demands or triggers. Exhibit 9,
below, shows the response rate of chemical hazard assessment pro-
grams to these triggers.
EXHIBIT 9
INDUSTRY CHEMICAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT PROGRAMS
Hazard Assessment Trigger R§_sj)onse_fj:eciuency*
Routine 41%
Process Change 73%
New Data 94%
New Product Use 63%
Employee Concern 81%
Consumer Concern 78%
New Regulatory
Requi rements 92%
*NOTE: The responses to this survey necessarily are a self-
evaluation by the responding chemical companies.
Source: Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co., An Industry Survey of Chemical
Company Activities to Reduce Unreasonable Risk, Final Report,
February 11, 1983, p. 18.
Other events identified as triggering chemical hazard - -
assessments on existing products were:
labeling and bulletin changes
-- product literature revisions
-- environmental incidents and concerns
-- Material Safety Data Sheets (MSDS) cyclical review
sales volume changes
-- raw material changes
-- employee protection
-- insurance company requests
-- consultant recommendations
-- unspecified audits.
-------
-75-
Finally, the survey of 112 companies (92) (representing about
half the chemical industry in terms of sales and employees), asked
the companies to assess the status and changes in their toxicity testing
programs. The survey defined toxicity testing to include animal, en-
vironmental, epidemiological, clinical, and toxicological testing. A
synopsis of the results is shown in Exhibit 10.
The same CMA survey found that 78% of responding chemical
companies had toxicity tests performed to evaluate the health or
environmental effects of chemicals. The companies' assessment of
their toxicity testing programs is shown in Exhibit 11.
A recent publication of the Centers for Disease Control
summarized what is known about cancer attributed to occupational
exposure to toxic substances, as shown in Exhibit 12.
A 1977 study by the National Institute for Occupational
Safety and Health (NIOSH) had placed the chemical industry
twelfth on the list of industries by hazards/exposure of workers
to carcinogens. (93) It differed from still earlier studies that
had ranked the chemical industry at the top of the list by fac-
toring in the amount of worker exposure as well as the volume of
carcinogens. The most hazardous industries were:
Industrial and scientific instruments
(solder, asbestos, thallium)
Fabricated metal products
(nickel, lead, solvents, chromic acids, asbestos)
Electrical equipment and supplies
(lead,.mercury, solvents, chlorohydrocarbons, solders)
Machinery, except electrical
(cutting oils, quench oils, lube oils)
Transportation equipment
(polymers and plastics constituents such as formaldehyde,
phenol, isocyanates, amines)
Petroleum and petroleum products
(benzene, naphthalene, polycyclic aromatics)
Leather products
(chrome salts, other organics used in tanning)
Pipeline transportation
(petroleum derivatives, metals used in welding)
-------
-76-
EXHIBIT 10
INDUSTRY REPORTED CHANGES IN TESTING PROGRAMS:
A CMA SURVEY
Most of the companies reporting organiza-
tional changes designated groups or individuals
with environmental, health, and safety responsi-
bilities. One company reported that it had set
up its environmental, health, and safety group
as an operating expense center with an annual
budget. Another company established a toxi-
cology department and another reported that
it had moved toxicological responsibilities to
to a more senior organization. The organiza-
tional changes reflect the increasing responsi-
bilities and importance of environmental, health
and safety functions.
New toxicity testing facilities or equip-
i"ent were reported by seven companies. One of
the companies indicated that it had constructed
a multi-million dollar toxicity testing labora-
tory. Another company spent nearly one and a
half million dollars on an addition to its lab
for inhalation toxicological testing.
Increased staffing for toxicological tes-
ting was reported by 11 respondents. One com-
pany reported that it expanded its health staff
from 5 to 60 professionals. Another company re-
ported that its full-time staff devoted to
assessing toxicological hazards increased from
4 to 25. A third company staffed a new lab with
39 umployees.
New testing policies were instituted by 11
companies. The new policies covered new, exis-
ting and acquisition product testing; raw mater-
ial testing; labeling; and government regulatory
compliance.
Four companies reported that they test all
new products. One of these companies reported
that toxicity testing is "now part of new product
development and is carried out at an early stage.1
Another company indicated that commercialization
development costs include testing costs.
Three companies reportedvthat they have pro-
cedures in place for testing existing products:
two reported that they prioritize mature chemi-
cals for testing and one reported that it con-
ducts annual reviews to Identify chemicals for
testing and proposes annual chemical testing pro-
grams to each division.
Another company reported that it establishes
the toxicity of all raw materials and examines
products from acquisitions. Another company
added intermediate and bulk chemical testing capa-
bilities to test for safe environmental handling
of these chemicals.
Man/ companies cited examples
'.estino uractices.
« Good laboratory practices (tiLfs). Com-
oanies reported that they now adhere to
CilPs. Those previously following GLPs
,aiu that tneir GlPs are now "formalized,"
"better defined," or "strengthened."
t Protocols. Protocols are now "updated,"
. "more complex," "formalized," more comp-
rehensive," and "better defined." Sev-
eral companies designed internal testing
protocols jnd on« company "qalnod facility
in protocol selection."
t Qua 1ity control in testing. Examples of
greater quality controlTn testing include
auditing of testing, validation procedures
for studies, review procedures for reports,
quality assurance programs, and careful re-
view of subcontracted work.
Many respondents also cited examples in In-
creased numbers of tests as a major change in
testing programs, examples of tests which are
conducted more often ,irpr
t behavioral toxicology;
chemical fate:
i chronic;
chronic Inhalation;
« corrosion;
« metabolic;
* metals analysis;
» molecular toxicology;
* oncogenlc;
« pharmacoklnetic;
environmental toxicity: reproductive;
* fertility; « sub-chronic;
flash point; teratology; and
t genetic: wildlife.
* in vitro .nutagenici ty;
One respondent indicated that it tests more
species, more animals per species, and more samples
of internal organs. Another respondent said that
its testing has "greatly expanded from previous
years" to the point where it now is spending over
J1.5 million on contracted and cooperative toxicity
testing. Another company identified Increasing re-
gulatory requirements and concern for product lia-
bility as major reasons for conducting considerably
more tests.
Closely related to the increase in numbers of
tests is the conduct of more sophisticated tests.
Testing state of the art has advanced markedly;
many current tests such as the Ames and cell trans-
formation tests were not known in 1969. Companies
reported that their current testing programs:
* emphasize bio-medical aspects of testing;
t use a tier-test approach to assess the tox-
icological hazards of chemicals;
emphasize chronic, sub-chronic, and repro-
ductive testing as opposed to the earlier.
emphasis on simple acute testing;
use greater scientific depth;
emphasize long-term testing;
* apply a greater breadth of tests;
« use more extensive histopathology;
* use more analytical chemisvy; and
apply more sophisticated analytical
characterization.
Improved recordkeepinq and information collec-
tion was cited by a number of respondents as an ex-
ample of testing program improvements. Most of the
companies dted use of computers as their improve-
ment in reeordkeeping. Respondents use computers
for data collection, storage and search.
The kinds of data computerized are:
test documentation;
medical health and environmental data;
toxidty reports;
t industrial hygiene data: and
material safety data.
Companies also dtnd examples of
improvements which did not involve (.unii.'uU-r1..
These companies:
established archives for all data;
* expanded MSDS coverage;
* use MSDS for all products; and
established recordkeepinq and reporting sys-
tems.
Source: Peat. Marwick, Mitchell, * Co.,
An industry Survey of Chemical Company
Activities to Reduce Unreasonable Risk,
Final Report, February 11. 1983, pp. 23-26.
-------
-77-
EXHIBIT 11
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SURVEY
1981 TOXICITY TESTING PROGRAMS
MEAN AND TOTAL RESPONSES a-
Mean Response Total Response
Equivalent full-time staff 14 1,178
Number of new substances/
products tested 22 1,856
Number of existing substances/
products tested 29. 2,418
Total number tested b 53 4,421
Annual in-house expense $1,184,000 $97,103,000
Annual contracted expense 380,000 31,170,000
Annual cooperative expense 123,000 10,309.000
Total expenseb $1,724,000 $137,953,000
Replacement value of
toxicity testing
facilities in 1981 $3,148,000 $255,028,000
aThe 122 companies represented in this survey are a cross-
section of the U.S. chemical industry. Together they
represent over one-half the chemical industry by measures
of sales and employment. The average 1981 sales of these
companies was $773 million. Responses were adjusted to
the percent attributable to U.S. chemical business.
^ Totals do not sum exactly due to a limited number of
partially completed questionnaires.
Source: Peat, Warwick, Mitchell, & Co., An Industry Survey of
Chemical Company Activities to Reduce Unreasonable Risk, Final
Report, February 11, 1983, p. 22.
-------
-78-
EXHIBIT 12
SELECTED OCCUPATIONAL CANCERS
Alihougn general agreement exists concerning the overall incidence of cancer, considera-
ble controversy surrounds the proportion of cancer cases attributable to occupational
exposures. Several characteristics of cancer contribute to the difficulty in making such
estimates:
1. Latency in the development of cancer. Occupational cancer usually becomes evident
long after initial exposure to the carcinogen; this interval may vary from 5 years to
more than 40 years , making it difficult to characterize important exposures long
past.
2. Influence of exposures to multiple carcinogens. Cancer victims may have been occupa-
tionally exposed to many carcinogens; interaction of these agents or interactions be-
tween them and other factors may greatly increase the risk of cancer*
ICD-9f Condition
Industry/occupation
Agent
155 Hemangiosarcoma
of the liver
160.0 Malignant neoplasm
of nasal cavities
161 Malignant neoplasm
of larynx
158. Mesothelioma
163 (peritoneum)
(pleura)
1 70 Malignant neoplasm
of bone
187.7 Malignant neoplasm
of scrotum
188 Malignant neoplasm
of bladder
Vinyl chloride polymerization
Industry > intners
Woodworkers, cabinet/furniture makers
Boot and shoe producers
Radium chemists, processors, dial
painters
Nickel smelting and refining
Asbestos industries and utilizers
Asbestos industries and utilizers
Radium chemists, processors, dial
painters
Automatic lathe operators, metalworkers
Coke oven workers, petroleum refiners,
tar distillers
Rubber and dye workers
Vinyl chloride monomer
Arsenical pesticides
Hardwood dusts
Unknown
Radium
Nktel
Ast sstos
Asbestos
Radium
Mineral/cutting
oils
Soots and tars, tar
distillates
Benzidine. alpha and
beta naphthylamine.
auramine, magenta,
4-aminobiphenyl.
4-nitrophenyl
1 89 Malignant neoplasm Coke oven workers Coke oven emissions
of kidney: other,
and unspecified
urinary organs
204 Lymphoid leukemia. Rubber industry Unknown
acute Radiologists Ionizing radiation
205 Myeloid leukemia, Occupations with exposure to benzene Benzene
acute Radiologists lonizirg radiation
207.0 Erythroleukemia Occupations with exposure to benzene Benzene
'w.ud.litiJ liiiuiiijtiuiial Classification of Diseases (ICO) rubiic.
Source: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly "eport 33 (9), "Leading
Diseases and Injuries - United States,'1 March 9, 1984, n. I2fi.
Work-Related
-------
-79-
While the study had many limitations no new data was
collected, only proven carcinogens were considered -- the data
used were the best available and indicated that the sum occupa-
tional hazard of the chemical industry is comparable to many others.
2. Genetic Screening. The chemical industry views itself as being
caught between demands to protect workers and not to discrimi-
nate. (94) The discovery of better and more accurate markers for
genetically-linked susceptibilities foreshadows the speedy expansion
of industrial screening of present and potential employees to reduce
their risk and company liability. (See Chapter 4, Section D, for a
complementary discussion of this issue.)
At least a dozen major corporations, including Dow Chemical,
General Motors, Monsanto, and Firestone Tire and Rubber, have ex-
cluded fertile women of childbearing age from certain jobs in order
to protect the potential fetuses from harm. Known "in industry par-
lance as protective exclusion, this policy has drawn criticism and
lawsuits on the basis of unfair/unlawful discrimination. (95)
In October 1978, four women who had undergone voluntary steri-
lization in order to keep their jobs at an American Cyanamid's lead
pigment plant sued the company. The women charged that their civil
rights had been violated; American; Cyanamid claimed that it would
be liable for damages if the women in question gave birth to de-
fective children, and that its interest was to protect the poten-
tial fetuses. Although American Cyanamid was in this instance
found liable, the technology of genetic screening is advancing so
rapidly that legal and policy disputes will balloon through the
1980's. (96)
Genetic screening is advocated as a way of protecting both the
industry and the worker against undue risk. However, the informa-
tion it makes available will increase the dilemma of determining
adequate levels of protection for populations at different risk,
protecting the rights of workers, and assigning responsibility for
avoiding and mitigating environmental and occupational risks.
-------
~l
-80-
3. Security Issues: Sabotage and Terrorism. A worldwide
increase in terrorism, sabotage, and related criminal activity is
already drawing response from the chemical industry (see Exhibit
13 below). (97) Chemi.cal- manufacturing plants, as with energy . '
generation plants or key transportation links, are attractive
targets for terrorism or ransom demands; they may represent for-
eign control and intervention, or a hallmark of centralized in-
dustrial power, or the source of unfair labor practices or envi-
ronmental contamination. Because of the potential for theft of
toxic materials or of explosions releasing toxic materials, the
reliability and coordination of industrial and governmental manage-
ment of security will become relatively more important in the
coming years.
EXHIBIT 13
Where the security
(million dollars)
Protective services
Guard & investigative
Central station
Armored car
Tntnl
Deterrent equipment
Fixed security
Locking
' Electronic access control
Lighting
Total
Monitoring & detection equipment
Electronic alarm
Monitoring & surveillance
CCTV
Total
Fire control equipment
Automatic sprinkler
Chemical fire extinguisher
Tntnl
By the private uctor. Source: Predicastv
money goes
i Purchased security* i
1967 1980 1995
S535
115
103
753
92
191
1
JS
371
J/ t
57
74
_lfl
149
* 1 *T^
19
95
1,387
S2.945
700
390
4,035
415
750
225
300
1,690
505
680
140
1 325
1 f»J4bW
75
325
400
**w
$7,450
$12,200
2.800
J.260
16,260
1.680
2.385
1.245
14ZI
6,785
2,370
3,690
775
6 835
WrU wv
335
1.245
1 Ron
I ,wOV
$31 ,460
Source: Chemical week, February
16, 1983, p. 38.
-------
-81-
4. Insurance. Accompanying rising liability costs is a long-term
trend towards higher insurance coverage and higher rates. Chemical
companies in 1981 paid liability insurance premiums of about 0.2%
of total revenues. This could increase by 200% in a very short
time. (98) Liability arising from pollution is covered under two
kinds of insurance policies: comprehensive general liability (CGL)
and environmental impairment liability (EIL). Most CGL policies
written in or since the 1970's include coverage of "sudden and
accidental" pollution, such as spills, but do not cover "non-
sudden and gradual" pollution, such as continuing dispersal, or
cleaning up waste dumps These are the main purpose of the newer
EIL policies. CGL policies have been tested and their interpreta-
tion clarified by years of litigation and revision, but EIL
policies are still "in an embryonic stage." (99)
EIL policies are generally written on a claims-made contract
basis, meaning that they cover only claims filed while the contract
is in effect, and not claims made later but related to pollution
occurring during or before the policy period. They generally cover
only gradual pollution, not sudden and accidental pollution. But
some insurers and corporation risk managers are now arguing that
both kinds of liabilities should be included to prevent insurers
from arguing over which is responsible for a given claim. A few
insurers, therefore, cover both sudden and non-sudden risks on EIL
policies, and nearly all allow for a buy-back of such coverage from
other insurers. 'Jell-known EIL insurers set primary limits rang-
ing from $5 million to $30 million for one occurrence, and from
$6 million to $60 million for aggregate claims.
Nearly all EIL insurers cover claims for both bodily injury
and property damage resulting from environmental impairment or
pollution hazard, and some also cover liability for "impairment
or diminution of any environmental right or amenity covered by
law." However experts say they are uncertain how this will be
interpreted or defined in practice. Most insurers formally define
environmental impairment as "emission, discharge, dispersal, dis-
posal, seepage, release, or escape of any liquid, solid, gaseous,
or thermal irritant, contaminant, or pollutant into or upon land,
-------
-82-
the atmosphere, or any watercourse or body of water." Some extend
this to include the "generation of odor, noises, vibrations, light,
electricity, radiation, changes in temperature, or any other sen-
sory phenomena." Some common, but not universal exclusions from
EIL coverage are genetic damage, workman's compensation or work-re-
lated risks, nuclear risks,-and results of willful acts.
There are great differences between EIL policies, also, on
the coverage of sites. Of eleven primary insurers compared by
Douglas McLeod in a recent issue of Business Insurance (100), nine
do not cover the costs of cleaning up the policyholders' own sites;
one will do so only if the clean-up is ordered by the government.
All eleven cover the policyholder's liability for cleaning up the
property of a third party, but the insurer must usually give prior
consent to the cleanup. Some insurers will, and some will not,
cover third-party liability associated with "pre-existing conditions"
at dispersed dump sites targeted by Superfund, and the conditions
for such coverage differ from insurer to insurer. Some policies
give blanket coverage for all sites, but some will cover only sites
specified in the policy.
Some insurers will not cover the cost of defending a policyhol-
der against pollution lawsuits, or will issue another separate poli-
cy to cover these costs. All insurers require "risk assessment,""
but the nature of these assessments, and whether the costs are borne
by the applicant or by the insurer differs from case to case. Near-
ly all of these points will be argued, tested, and probably standard-
ized over the next few years.
The first effort by chemical waste generators to recover the
money paid by them for a waste site cleanup under Superfund is a
suit filed by Union Carbide against International Insurance Company
on November 8, 1983, (IP-83-1419-C,S.D., Ind.), with a cross-claim
against the owners and operators of the site. The complaint against
the insurance company alleges that coverage was demanded and denied
under an applicable policy and asks for reimbursement and declara-
tory relief as to future costs. (101)
-------
-83-
The overall growth of insurance for "non-sudden" pollution is
reported to have been below the industry's expectations, probably
because of the recession. Underwriters are still uncertain of
the risks they are assuming, and are" conservative about the aggre-
gate limits of the policies. Corporate risk managers may be reluc-
tant to buy coverage that is expensive yet would not cover a catas-
trophic loss. Another reason for slow growth is that while the
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act requires waste handlers to
be insured or to qualify as self-insurers, there has been little
enforcement of this provision until recently. (The responsibility
for enforcement belongs to the states after they have an EPA-ap-
proved plan for regulation of hazardous waste disposal.)
However, some insurers now report that business has picked up
considerably within the last six months, and will probably continue
to grow. The general trend is expected to be toward higher premi-
ums and higher deductibles, as experience on which to base rates is
accumulated. The rising costs will have a disproportionate impact
on small companies. (102)
The impact of product liability awards and accompanying
insurance costs on chemical industry planning and finances is
substantial. Normal product liability premium costs run about
0.5% to 1.0% of sales (with the lower rates for large policies).
If, for example, Dow carried its liability insurance with a
commercial company, this would mean premium costs of about
$100 million on sales (1982) of a little over $10 billion. The
number becomes significant when compared to Dow's 1982 operating
profits of $356 million. To take an extreme case, the claims
filed -- though not yet awarded -- against Johns Manville for
asbestos-related illness are estimated by Manville to total about
$4.9 billion, about five times the company's worth. Claims
stemming from Love Canal and related disposal sites have been
estimated at $10 billion. (103)
Chemical companies are beginning to feel the same pressures
-------
-84-
to which pharmaceutical companies have long been subject. The
case of Merrell Dow illustrates the problems of a company
producing direct consumer-use products as consumers become
more aware of their extensive exposure to chemicals in day-to-day
life.
Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals unexpectedly ceased
production of the anti-morning sickness drug Bendectin
in 1983, saying that the company expected to lose
money on it due to insurance premium costs. The U.S.
sales revenues from Bendectin were about $13 million;
insurance premium totalled more than $10 million for
this FDA-approved drug. When scientific studies on
the health effects of Bendectin -- especially terato-
genicity were inconclusive, the company was facing
several hundred lawsuits. (104)
While such multibillion dollar liability claims are the
exception rather than the rule, the unpredictability of such
latent claims and the contribution of such chance factors as
scientific discovery, accidents, and media and public activism,
which might come from five to forty years in the future, make the
concern a real one for chemical companies.
There is reported to be some decrease in oversight by third
party insurers. (105) It is a standard practice of insurance com-
panies to inspect the operations of large clients and to offer
substantial discounts for safe practices. While most companies --
for their own benefit -- use a good deal of external quality con-
trol, self-insurance places the burden of quality control on the
company itself.
Regulations requiring the carrying of insurance, as are in
effect now under Subtitle C of RCRA, encourage safe waste manage-
ment to fulfill the requirements of insurance companies. (106)
The threat of higher premiums or loss of coverage for violation of
standards set forth in insurance policies may, in the long run, be
a more effective check on waste operations than possible EPA
enforcement action.
-------
-85-
CHAPTER 4
SOCIAL AND POLITICAL TRENDS AFFECTING
PRODUCTION AND REGULATION OF CHEMICALS
Political behavior will be shaped by an age group
characterized by political activism and environ-
mental and heal th'- commitments, and by greater
influence of women, minorities, and the elderly.
Environmental interest groups are forming alliances
with other interests, such as labor. General en-
vironmental concerns will become sharply focused
on direct health impacts. International environ-
mental and health issues may be significant in
both diplomatic and trade affairs. State and
local toxic risk legislation will increase greatly
but the public will also demand greater Federal
intervention. Two factors must be reconciled in
further legislation and regulation:.the growing
consensus favoring more flexible cross-media
control strategies, and possible reduction in
agency discretion as Congress reacts to loss of
the legislative veto. Major policy issues will
include liability and victim compensation, public
and labor right-to-know provisions, and genetic
screening. Further public alarms appear highly
likely, especially from groundwater contamination
and hazardous transport accidents, and will further
stimulate demand for greater control of all toxic
materials.
A. LONG-RANGE SOCIETAL TRENDS
The social and political trends which will have a direct impact
on chemical industries in the next decade must be seen in the context
of longer range trends affecting society as a whole. An appreciation
of this context provides the filter to use in identifying and assess-
ing the likelihood and the significance of changes in political atti-
tudes and in governmental response that will in turn influence industry
decisions. These long-range trends include changes in:
-- the age and the ethnic characteristics of the population,
-- the makeup of the labor force,
-- the location of people and of Industry,
-------
-86-
levels of education
economic conditions, and
international factors in America's political environment.
Changes in demographic patterns the age structure of the
population, where people live, where and how they work or play,
their income and lifestyle will be a factor in the long run
directly affecting the chemical industry. Such trends affect the
kinds of chemicals that are produced and how they are used, how
many people are exposed to what kind of risks, and the likelihood
that they will accept a given level of risk. The acceptance of
risk, and the propensity to demand governmental action to reduce
risks, is generally considered to be related to age, education,
affluence, ethnicity, and culture-, in ways that are significant,
although still little understood.
1. Demographic Trends
The population of this country will continue to grow for at
least another fifty years. But it is growing slowly. There are
no indications that the present low birth rate will rise signifi-
cantly in the next few years. Even by 2030, if present trends
continue, the population will be only 20% larger than today, and
stable. Life expectancy is rising; it has increased about 3.5
years in the last decade (1), but further dramatic increases will
depend on progress in conquering the diseases related to age and
reducing environmental-related diseases.
The proportion of all Americans who are over 65 has risen
from 4% in 1960 to 11.4% in 1980, and will continue to rise to
12% in 2000 and at least 22% in 2025. (2) A large majority of
these will be women. This means that greater attention will be
focused on environmental causes of disease and on environmental
factors that contribute to the disabilities associated with aging.
The largest and fastest growing age group for the next decade
will be those from 33 to 45 years old. This will have greater im-
pact on social behavior and political-economic institutions than
the increase in numbers of the elderly.
-------
-87-
The 33-45 year olds are the baby boom generation. The atti-
tudinal characteristics of this age cohort have included emphasis
on physical fitness, demand for environmental protection, suspicion
of large institutions, and political activism. Social psychologists
believe that there is a strong tendency for sociopolitical attitudes
formed in youth to persist in later life.
Legal and illegal immigration will be a major factor in popu-
lation growth. Because recent immigrants, Hispanics, and American
Blacks have higher birth rates than the rest of the population,
racial and ethnic minorities will make up a larger percentage of
the population in 1995; one in four Americans will be Black or
Hispanic (3) compared to 18% in 19800
The Southwest will be increasingly bicultural and bilingual.
Already New Mexico is 37% and Texas 21% Hispanic. (4)
The ethnic minorities have generally not been environmental
activists, but have had other political priorities. This may tend
to moderate environmental activism in the Southwest where there are
many chemical industry facilities.
Of people in the labor force who are between 25 and 30 now,
86% have finished high school and about 23% have finished college.(5)
The educational level of the work force and the general population
will continue to rise over the next decade. The number of produc-
tion jobs has been declining for several decades and will decline
further with the move toward programmable automation. There is a
strong and growing movement toward greater job mobility, not only
mid-career retraining and second or third careers during the work-
ing lifetime, but less deliberate and less welcome employment
instability in which a person may be forced to move between jobs and
from white-collar to blue-collar jobs or from production to service
jobs.
By all criteria, the U.S. is post-industrial. Daniel Bell
defined a post-industrial society as one in which:
-- services rather than goods-production is the dominant
economic activity,
-------
the professional and technical class constitute the pre-
eminent occupational category,
-- theoretical knowledge is the central source of innovation
and of policy formulation,
policy is oriented toward assessment and control of technol-
ogy as a determinant of future directions, and
a new intellectual technology supports decision-making. (6)
The percentage of U.S. jobs directly related to collecting,
storing, manipulating, disseminating, and using information is
estimated to have been 8% in 1900, 18% in 1950, and 52% in 1980. (7)
While the proportion of the work force likely to be exposed
to toxic chemicals in the workplace is declining, both work force
mobility and increased access to, and familiarity with, technical
and theoretical information will tend to widely disseminate concerns
about hazardous conditions in the work force, and in the community
at large. Organized interests, such as labor unions and environ-
mental groups, are acquiring technical expertise and pooling
resources to encourage research in support of their political
efforts.
About 70% of women in their early 20's are now in the work
force, and over half of women with children under six years old
are working. (8) The labor force participation for men of all ages
is about 77%. In 1995, it is projected that women will make up nearly
half of the work force. The number of women in professional and mana-
gerial jobs will be considerably higher than at present, as indi-
cated by the increased number of women completing professional,
managerial, and scientific training and accumulating the necessary
experience for middle and upper management.
These factors tend to strengthen concerns about toxic chemi-
cals in the workplace and their reproductive and genetic effects;
they also tend to increase the influence of women and their politi-
cal priorities. The large number of dual income families indicates
a continuing trend toward general affluence and high expectations,
and will also contribute to increased independence among workers --
that is, less inclination to accept unsatisfactory working con-
ditions.
-------
-89-
In 1982, there were approximately 717,000 scientists and engi-
neers in R&D in a U.S. labor force of approximately 112 million,
or 64 per 10,000 workers. (9) This ratio, which is higher than
any other country except the Soviet Union, decreased slowly from
1971-1979, but has resumed its long-term rise with the development
of new science-based industries. In 1981, the last data available,
Japan had a ratio of 55.6, compared to 62.4 for the U.S. and
between 8908 and 10204 (differing estimates) for the U.S.S.R.
This is yet another indication of increasing sophistication about
scientific and technical issues in the work force and in the popu-
lation at large. Industrial and government management of toxic
substances will need to be appropriately defensible, interactive,
and explicit,,
Household formation has increased much faster than population
in recent decades. (10) While this trend faltered during the
recent recession, it is unlikely to be reversed. The number of
households no longer closely reflects the number of traditional
families,, There are many single person households. Americans are
marrying later, and less permanently; there is a trend toward
delayed childbirth, and about 25% of women now in their twenties,
based on their own expectations, probably will remain childless.
Voluntary households of unrelated adults and cohabitating non-
married couples are increasing in the fastest growing age groups,,
It is projected that non-standard households, those not made
up of traditional nuclear families, will continue to increase
from under 15% in 1960 to about 30% to 35% in 19950 (11) A rapid
rate of household formation obviously expands the market for
housing, household furnishings, etc.
Some regions of the United States, especially in the Rocky
Mountain, southern, and western regions, will continue to grow
faster than the country as a whole, although the Sunbelt migration
is slowing,, The pace of migration over the next decade will depend
on the occurrence and impact of water shortages and rising costs
-------
-go-
of water, the further expansion of domestic energy and minerals
development (which is likely within the decade), and the extent
to which conditions in the growing Sunbelt areas come to approxi-
mate those from which the migrants fled rising land and housing
costs, excess labor, rising taxes, congestion and pollution, etc.(12)
Industrial migration has paralleled population migration, less
because of the relocation of facilities than because of the differ-
ent rates of start-up, closing, or expansion of businesses in grow-
ing vs. shrinking market areas.
A stronger demographic trend is the decentralization of people
and industry growth in rural areas, non-metropolitan counties,
and smaller cities, while larger cities and metropolitan areas are
stable or shrinking. By 1995 the cumulative effects of this trend
over two decades will be striking; a general deconcentration and a
blurring of the distinctions between urban, suburban, and rural. (13)
The long-range economic effects will be much less disparity in
income between regions of the country and between urban and rural
areas.
All these trends point toward a diffusion, sharing, and homog-
enization of political attitudes and behavior across the nation.
2. International Trends
While the general trend in the U.S. and in most advanced nations
is toward slow growth and eventual decline in population, world popu-
lation is growing rapidly, with most of the growth concentrated in
the least developed nations. By the year 2000, world population
will have increased from the present five billion to at least six
billion. (14) Growing urbanization and industrialization in develop-
ing nations is increasing the strain on both renewable and non-renew-
able resources.
National economies are increasingly intermeshed and both resource
supplies and markets are becoming more highly competitive. Develop-
ing nations are struggling to develop indigenous industries, rang-
ing from steel, chemicals, and heavy manufacturing to electronics
and consumer goods.
-------
-91-
The threat of depletion of much of the world's "renewable re-
sources" is more likely and more immediate than depletion of non-
renewable resources. Forests, grasslands, cultivated cropland,
fisheries, wildlife, and fresh water supplies are being strained
by population growth, urbanization, and industrialization. (15)
Significant growth in world demand for U.S. agricultural commodi-
ties and timber is expected within the next two decades.
The environmental political movement, far from disappearing,
is rapidly being internationalized. International labor coalitions
and foreign labor organizations are exerting increased political
influence to further their increasing emphasis on health and safety.
Further, international tensions and international political pres.-
sures will be increasingly important factors in the domestic po-
litical environment. American-owned,multinational corporations,
including chemical companies, will find rising concern about the
effects of toxic chemicals in other countries, as well as in the
United States.
In summary, long-range demographic and social trends indicate
that the importance of environmental and public health concerns in
the larger social and political agenda is likely to grow rather
than to diminish.
3. Economic Conditions
Specific economic projections for the next decade would be fool-
hardy, but some global and national trends can serve as general
assumptions to underlie the political discussion. They are:
Increasing interdependence of world markets and national
economies and currencies, and intense competition for
both raw materials and markets,
higher prices for the necessary factors of production,
9 strong incentives for increased utilization of domestic
resources of energy and materials,
expansion of agriculture with emphasis on export of food,
new and rapidly expanding industries with a high scien-
tific component, such as biotechnology,
as a consequence, continuing competition for capital and
generally high interest rates,
-------
-92-
as a further consequence of new high-tech industries and
automation in older industries, a large and relatively
intractable problem of unemployment,
continuing growth in social welfare costs, because of the
large number of elderly and unemployed,
in spite of these problems, a gradual return to the long-
range trend of increasing affluence and decreasing dis-
parities in income across the population.
From 1945 to 1980 Americans became steadily more prosperous.
Disposable personal income and median family income increased. The
percentage of people below the poverty line slowly declined. (16)
The disparity of incomes between Whites and Blacks was very slightly
reduced. Disparities in income between geographical regions were
sharply reduced. Disparities in income betv/een urban-and rural areas
were also reduced, especially in the 1970's. (17) Home ownership,
possession of durable goods, and other measures of economic well-
being increased steadily. The "net worth" of the nation quadrupled.
As a result of inflation, the rising costs of energy, and the
recession of the early 1980's, there has been some slippage in the
last three years. There was a 5.5% decrease in real income in
1980 and more thereafter. The number of people below the poverty
line increased, and Black family incomes slipped relative to that
of White families.
Economic forecasts are at present highly uncertain and politi-
cized. But the most prevalent expectations are that real income
will eventually resume a rising trend, although at a slower rate
of growth as real economic growth slows.
America is a solidly middle class country. Compared to
other nations there is relatively little disparity in standards
of living, education, social behavior and social attitudes across
regions, across urban/rural communities, across ethnic groups, and
even across socio-economic classes. The differences may appear
large and in some cases troublesome because our political philoso-
phy of pluralistic democracy seeks to give representation, balance,
and visibility to competing demands and interests. In spite of
-------
-93-
this, our geographic and social mobility, highly integrated na-
tional economy, public education systems, and national communica-
tion systems tend to reduce differences and homogenize culture,
and to make the population as a whole middle class in social and
political expectations and 'behavior.
B. POLITICAL TRENDS 1984-1995
1. The Continuing Growth of an Environmental Coalition
Health, longevity, and physical fitness are a national avoca-
tion, almost an obsession. The general public is well aware of a
link between health and the physical environment. This increases
public support for environmental protection. This focus of national
attention will grow because:
we have the affluence and standard of living that provides
a margin for discretionary allocation of time and money
to health and physical fitness;
the largest and most rapidly growing layer of the popu-
lation will be in their 30's and 40's, with relatively high
earning power, small families, and many dual-income house-
holds;
-- this age group was socialized (matured to a stage of politi-
cal awareness) during the 1970's, a period of political ac-
tivism, strong environmental concern, and high distrust of
government and business institutions;
-- rapid advances in medical/biological sciences are constantly
producing new information about the systematic health effects of
environmental factors, expecially in areas of reproductive
functioning, birth defects, neuromuscular and brain func-
tion, and the sources of cancer and heart disease;
-- awareness of slow development diseases such as asbestosis
and some cancers related to environmental/occupational fac-
tors will increase as the number of old people in-
creases, especially those whose work lives began in the
1940's -- the time of the chemical industrial revolution;
and
-- we have a relatively well educated population, increasingly
oriented toward information and increasingly exposed to
knowledge about science, technology, and related policy
issues.
-------
-94-
Public support for environmental protection, public health,
ana ecological concerns will remain strong, according to the evi-
dence from opinion polls. A New York Times public opinion poll in
September 1982 showed that 52% of those questioned believed that
protecting the environment was so important that requirements and
standards could not be too high, and improvements should continue
regardless of their costs. This level of support is significant,
especially considering that the economy was in the midst of reces-
sion and high unemployment, with administrative policies that em-
phasized deductions in the scope and extent of Federal regulation. (18)
The Issues Management Letter reported in April 1984 that
"For months national data have been showing strong public concern
over chemical contamination issues... (A)s much as 25% of local
coverage (in newspapers) is regularly devoted to health and,en-
vironmental problems, no region can avoid the national trend." (19)
Few environmental questions reflect class alignments,, In-
stead, Americans have come to regard a clean environment as a
"basic material value," according to researcher Everett Carl! Ladd,
in Public Opinion in March 1982* An increasing number of people
believe that environmental protection laws/regulations have not
gone far enough according to the Roper Organization Polls, 1973-
1981. (20) See Exhibit 14.
A survey by J. F. Coates, Inc. (21) shows that the following
areas are of major and growing concern to constituency groups
ranging from business people and scientists to public interest
groups:
groundwater contamination,
toxic substances and hazardous wastes, and
chemical fertilizers and pesticides.
-------
-95-
Percent
SO
30
10
EXHIBIT 14
PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS
AND REGULATIONS, 1973-1981
Environmental protection laws'regulations have
Struct* about rjgnt balance
Not gone far enough
Gone loo far
Oct. Oct. Oct.. Oct. Sep.
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
Sep. Sep./Oct. Sep.
1979 J980 1981
'"« Quest-on as«ed was Tr>e»e aie din«itng oom «« »« go^e ^
iai o*otect "Oi '»' enou^n. o< "av« »nue« < o
Oon i «now/no answer ' 'vsoonses c>oi o}-i98i
From: The Conservation Foundation; State of the
Environment 1982, p. 425.
There has been a slight decrease in the number of Americans
that consider themselves conservative, according to the April 1982
National Opinion Research Center poll. Of the registered voters
in 1980, 46% of those under 30 and 22% of those over 50 identified
themselves as Independent. This poll projects that in 1990, 60%
of those under 30 and 45% of those over 50 will identify themselves
as independents. Democrats and independents tend to be more in favor
of environmental protection via regulation than are conservatives. (22)
Women have become increasingly active in political affairs and
are thought to be especially favorable toward environmental and
public health legislation.
-------
-96-
While voting in local and national elections has been declin-
ing, other kinds of political activism have probably been growing.
This may reflect a general re-orientation of political activity to-
ward issues rather than toward candidates -- a depersonalization
of politics, a determination on the part of individual citizens to
influence decisions more specifically and directly instead of leav-
ing them to elected representatives. One example of this trend is
in the growth of ad hoc organizations formed to represent particu-
lar political viewpoints or organizational interests, the political
action committee or PAC.
There were over 3300 PACs in the U.S. in 1983, a 16% increase
over the previous year. Most of these PACs represent an industry
or a special economic interest, although the number of PACs that
are not connected to industry has grown, over the last five years.
Campaign and Congressional experts report that these groups will
continue to be a dominant force in U.S. politics. Many of them are
specifically intended to be a counterbalance to environmental and
other public interest groups. (23)
Environmental Activism and Emerging Political Alliances
Conservation groups made their first big political impact
in the 1982 election, led by the Sierra Club and Friends of the
Earth. They actively and effectively campaigned for and against
specific candidates. (24) The League of Conservation Voters,
the oldest environmental political action committee, was formed
in 1970. In the 1982 elections it spent over $1 million and mo-
bilized hundreds of volunteers in 77 political campaigns.
There are 1,860 organizations actively involved with environ-
mental concerns in the U.S. and Canada, including citizen groups,
State and Federal agencies, and national and international commis-
sions, according to the National Wildlife Federation's 1984 Conser-
vation Directory. A decade earlier, the 1974 Directory identified
only 700-800 environmental groups. (25)
-------
-97-
The strength of these organizations lies in grass roots organi-
zation. They may be even more powerful over the next decade than
they are now. Issues like toxic substances and hazardous wastes
are so personal, so frightening to the average citizen, explained
one environmentalist, that "the issues drive themselves. (26)
As these networks, national and international, grow in number
and strength, their influence and ability to mobilize public opin-
ion and action will increase.
Environmental concerns are institutionalized in Federal and
State bureaucracies, Congressional committees, and private sector
institutions, e.g: organized interest groups, publications, spe-
cialized law firms, consulting firms, etc. These institutions,
like all institutions, strive to perpetuate themselves by strength-
ening public support for envirbnmental concerns. These interests
are also buttressed by a complex legal framework, put in place in
the 1970's and 1980's, that would be difficult to dismantle without
great public support and Congressional action,, (27)
Increasing cooperation and coordination among environmental
organizations are giving them a new amount and range of influence.
The ten leading environmental groups* had a combined 1983 budget of
$94.9 million. (28) The leaders of these ten groups meet regularly
to coordinate political and research strategies. The strengths and
resources of each group can contribute to a combined front0
*Environmental Defense Fund, Environmental Policy Institute, Izaak
Walton League, National Audubon Society, Friends of the Earth,
National Parks and Conservation Association, National Wildlife
Federation, Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Wilder-
ness Society.
-------
-98-
The Global Tomorrow Coalition was formed in 1979, sparked by
the Global 2000 report. Based on a futures outlook and focusing
on the interwoven issues of population, resource consumption,
and environment, it incorporates influential U.S. business, reli-
gious, environmental, governmental, and scientific interests with
many ties to equally influential leaders in other countries.
The Environmental Liaison Centre based in Kenya links 200
member organizations from 69 countries to environmental issues
from a Third World perspective. It has ties to over 3,000 non-
governmental organizations worldwide. (29)
The most politically potent alliance for the next decade
may be that between labor and environmental interests. Recogni-
tion of shared goals and the power of cooperation brought together
labor and environmental organizations in 1981 to form a loosely
knit network. A June 1982 summit conference drew 115 representatives
from both camps. (30) The network pools lobbying efforts at both
State and Federal levels where their interests coincide. Much of
its recent work has been on right-to-know legislation.
Many scientists have been active in the movement for environ-
mental protection. But many scientists, and perhaps, especially
chemists, are closely tied professionally to large corporations,
and their professional interests are targeted on the development
of useful chemicals rather than on identification of their undesir-
able side effects or on their regulation and control. In 1965 the
American Chemical Society (ACS) formed a Committee on Chemistry and
Public Affairs, which adopted environmental improvement as an area
particularly appropriate for its public service mandate. The ACS
already had a strong interest in environmental problems centering
in its Division of Water, Air, and Waste Chemistry. These two
divisions of the society recruited a task force of member experts
which produced, in 1969, a report entitled Cleaning Our Environment:
The Chemical Basis for Acticm. The report highlighted several prob-
lem areas:
-------
-99-
t the primitive condition of fundamental knowledge about how
living things are affected by long-term, low-level exposure
to pollutants,
9 the even more primitive state of knowledge about the effects
of pollutants on the ecology, and
the need for better analytical chemical methods to monitor,
control, and study the environment. (31)
The report included no less than 73 detailed recommendations about
actions to improve "the air environment, the water environment, solid
waste management, and pesticides in the environment." Recognizing
that 73 recommendations was an unmanageable number, unlikely to get
effective attention, the task force then went on to abstract from
these 26 priority recommendations that appeared in A Supplement to
the original report, published in 1971. Both the first and second
sets of recommendations focused on the conventional categories of
air pollution (especially motor vehicle exhausts and fossil fuel com-
bustion), water pollution (especially eutrophication and waste water
treatment sludge), and municipal refuse (especially junked automo-
biles). There was a great deal of attention to pesticides in the
environment, which accounted for eight of the 26 priority .recom-
mendations. However, the American Chemical Society, in spite of
the high concentration of industrial chemists in its membership,
did not call attention to the problems associated with the manu-
facture, use, or disposal of other toxic chemicals and their pre-
sence in the environment.
2. Risk Management
Decisionmaking on toxic substances increasingly will be founded
on institutionalized risk assessment. The evolving process of risk
managementinitial identification of potential hazard, the quanti-
fication of hazard and exposure analysis, assessment of the potential
societal risk, and the application of this knowledge to policy--
-------
-100-'
is likely to be a key to foreseeing the effect of future public
policy issues on chemical industries.
Risk assessment is especially important to regulatory agencies
such as EPA, which must make policy decisions based on partial,
tentative, and sometimes conflicting information, and across a
wide range of qualitatively and quantitatively different hazards.
As society becomes more aware of the risks posed by products, life-
styles, industries, and environment, they will increasingly demand
more responsive government decisionmaking.
Interacting factors promoting the use of risk assessment include:
The demand for answerability and openness of government
policymaking; risk assessment creates a record of the
data, methods, and priorities used in decisionmaking.
The increasing sensitivity of Americans to lower levels
of risk and more subtle forms of risk.
Continuing demand for an improved lifestyle, to which
health and securityfreedom from imposed riskare key
contributors.
Rise of autonomy and freedom of choice as political and
social goals. These must be founded on explicit knowledge
of the different options, including the risks of each.
Improved technical capability to measure hazards; for
example to detect and measure chemicals in air, water,
soil, etc.; or to conduct extensive epidemiological
studies in response to an observed or suspected hazard.
Institutional experience in conducting and using risk
assessment, which provides some indication of how to im-
prove methodology and where risk assessment can most
usefully be applied and updated.
More complex and extensive computer technology, useful both
directly in data handling in risk assessment and indirectly
in gathering information and improving communication and
expert and public participation in assessments. ..,
The increasing complexity of technological systems, which
tends to make risks potentially more catastrophic while
at the same time making them less obvious to the casual
observer or the isolated expert. This increases the need .
for a more formalized, multidisci piinary approach to identi-
fying and assessing risks.
A lengthened horizon; individuals and industry are increas-
ingly aware of the life cycle implications of a technology
or process. They are concerned about risks to future gener-
ations, and risks from future use of disposal or shutdown
of a current technology or process.
-------
-101-
3. Federal Legislation
During the 1970's, public concern about the environment gave
rise to a range of Federal and State legislation. But the pendulum
of Congressional support for the environment swung repeatedly during
this period. The environmental activism of Congress in the early
1970's gave way in the late 1970's to concerns about the effects
of over-regulation.
A new generation of legislative initiatives has emerged in the
last decade involving:
-- development of adequate Information on the toxic effects
of chemicals on human health and the environment;
-- development of information on the manner and degree to
which humans and the environment may be exposed to hazards
as a consequence of commerce in these chemicals;
-- notification by manufacturers to public officials of infor-
mation on effects and exposure;
assessment of risks to human health and the environment;
control by suitable means of those risks perceived as unac-
ceptable, including packaging and labeling to inform of
hazard, as well as restrictions and bans, as appropriate.
The Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-469) em-
powered the Federal government to control or stop the production
and use of chemical substances that may present an unreasonable
risk of injury to health or to the environment (Sec. 5).
Manufacturers of all new chemicals and chemicals put to significant
new uses must give EPA 90 days notice before manufacturing
begins. Any chemical not on the inventory of existing chemicals
is considered new. EPA can require testing of chemicals,
whether new or already in production, only if the chemical
meets all of the following criteria:
there are grounds to conclude that it may present an un-
reasonable risk, or there may be substantial exposure,
data for predicting health and environmental effects are
inadequate, and
-------
-102-
t testing is necessary to develop the data, which may re-
late to carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratogenic, behavioral,
and synergistic effects and to persistance. (Sec.4)
EPA can regulate any aspect of the chemicals' use and can take
immediate action if there is an imminent hazard. The agency can
issue rules for specific chemicals requiring manufacturers and pro-
cessors to report information about the chemical, production levels,
projected exposure rates, etc.
TSCA established an Interagency Testing Committee (ITC) to pre-
pare a list of chemicals recommended for priority consideration for
testing. The list is to contain no more than 50 chemicals at any
time; EPA must respond within 12 months either by proposing testing
or declaring a rationale for not requiring testing. (Sec.4) During
the first three years of implementation EPA did not respond to ITC's
recommendations. In 1979 the Natural Resources Defense Council chal-
lenged EPA's lack of action in court, (NRDC vs. Costle, 14ERC 1858
(S.D.N.Y., 1980)) and the court ordered EPA to establish a schedule
for clearing the backlog, EPA subsequently took action on a num-
ber of chemicals. In some cases, it negotiated agreements with man-
ufacturers for.voluntary testing.
TSCA also gave EPA authority to prohibit or limit the manu-
facture, processing, distribution, use, and disposal of old chemi-
cals -- that is, those that were introduced before TSCA was passed
if they are found to pose "an unreasonable risk." The controls
that are possible range from total prohibition to labeling of con-
tents. Regulatory limitations have been put on specific uses (or
disposal) of a few chemicals including chlorofluorocarbons, asbes-
tos, and dioxin. The difficulty is that there are about 55,000
chemicals in use, and for many of them, there are no aggregated
data on manufacturers, volume, production, and sales and little
information about uses, exposure, or potential effects.
Section 8 of TSCA is of particular interest because it concerns
the information that manufacturers must collect or supply and this
is related to the right to know issue (see Ch.4, Sec. B.). Sec. 8c
and related EPA regulations require that records of adverse health
-------
-103-
and environmental reactions to.chemicals be retained. Under Sec.
8d, EPA requires manufacturers, processors and distributors to sub-
nit lists of unpublished health and safety studies of which they
are aware, relating to chemicals. Sec. 8e requires that EPA be in-
formed immediately of any information or evidence that a chemical
presents a substantial risk of injury to health or the environment.
These sections of course supplement Sec. 4 which allows EPA to re-
quire testing.
A TSCA Improvement Amendments Bill was proposed by Congressmen
Florio and Eckhart on November 3, 1983 (H.R. 4304). It would sig-
nificantly strengthen TSCA in the following ways:
The EPA Administrator would be required to promulgate a new
rule mandating testing for all new chemicals requiring a
Pre-Manufacturing Notice. (Sec.5)
EPA must place a chemical on an :iinterim list," triggering
the required filing of a PMN by all subsequent manufacturers
and by the original manufacturer, if there is a change in
use, exposure, or production. Substances would remain on the
list until regulated or until data is submitted providing a
reasonable basis to conclude regulation is not needed. (Sec.6)
The procedure for designating a "significant new use"
would be simplified: consideration of a change in only one
factor (production volume, exposure) would be sufficient.
(Sec.7)
EPA could prohibit or restrict new chemicals solely on the
basis of a determination that there is insufficient infor-
mation to evaluate its effects, without a need to determine
that there is unreasonable risk, or that it will be pro-
duced in substantial quantities. (TSCA presently requires
the last two findings). (Sec.8)
EPA need not first consider using the authority of other
environmental statutes before invoking TSCA. TSCA would
have primary jurisdiction in appropriate cases and would
therefore be equal in importance to other environmental
statutes. (Sec.9)
The grounds for withholding information as confidential
would be significantly narrowed. (Sec.10)
-------
-104-
Penalties would be made more severe and opportunities for
continual challenges after agency enforcement actions would
be closed off. (Sec.11)
EPA would be authorized to negotiate and then enforce volun-
tary testing agreements without losing the power to subse-
quently issue supplementary orders. (Sec.3)
f Substances created by genetic engineering would specifical-
ly fall under TSCA. (Sec.2)
Many critics think that TSCA -- or its implementation has
been inadequate. Among the most controversial issues are:
t whether the reliance on negotiated test agreements meet the
law's requirement that EPA respond to the Interagency Test-
ing Committee recommendations within one year;
whether PMN reviews are adequate, and whether manufacturers
submit enough data for a judgment (the chemical industry
generally favors a broad exemption for some classes of
chemicals; others argue for establishment of broad cate-
gories of chemicals for which extensive data would be re-
quired);
whether additional steps should be taken to bring the U.S.
chemical review process into line with the requirements of
'its major trading partners, particularly OECD base require-
ments ;
whether public disclosure provisions are adequate; since
most of the data submitted is declared confidential, cri-tics
say there is no opportunity for public oversight as TSCA was
intended to provide;
whether EPA has been too conservative in using Section 6
authority to control unreasonable risks; that is, has under-
estimated the risks of some chemicals;
whether EPA fras been overly reluctant to use its authority
under Section 4(f) to assign regulatory priorities; for
example, to designate formaldehyde as a priority chemical.
Proposals have been introduced into Congress to amend TSCA to
address these issues.
-------
-105-
A new factor in future environmental legislation will be Con-
gressional reaction to loss of the option of a legislative veto, as
a result of the Supreme Court's Chadha Decision (1983). Legisla-
tive vetos have not been widely used in environmental laws, but ex-
perts expect a general tightening up of all regulatory legislation
and a reduction in the extensive amount of discretion that Congress
has allowed regulatory agencies. (32)
In writing a legislative veto into a law, Congress delegates
authority to the Executive Branch but reserves the right to disap-
prove and thus nullify specific actions or decisions based on the
delegated authority.
A legislative veto seemed appropriate in regulatory legislation
where scientific knowledge is necessary in devising feasible means
of accomplishing Congressional objectives. Nearly two-thirds of the
House voted in 1976 to apply the legislative veto to all regulatory
legislation, but the measure did not win support in the Senate.
Opponents, including many environmentalists, objected because the
practice encourages regulatory agencies to negotiate regulatory
provisions with Congressional committee staff, without the procedural
safeguards and opportunities for public participation which apply
to agency regulatory decisions. -
t>
The Supreme Court decision, which has no direct effect on TSCA,
invalidated 207 specific veto provisions in 126 laws.
Congress is now trying to find some alternative procedure;
a Constitutional amendment to salvage the legislative veto power
is under consideration. In the meantime, several proposed
amendments to TSCA are being rewritten as a result of the Supreme
Court decision to either strengthen the law or to allow some
exemptions. Experts at the Congressional Research Service and
elsewhere say it is as yet impossible to evaluate either the
probability of their passage or their potential impact.
The most notable recent action by Congress is the Comprehensive
Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1960
(the Superfund). This has established a $1.6 billion fund financed
-------
-106-
by U.S. chemical producers, to clean up hazardous substance spills
and inactive hazardous waste disposal sites. Congress is likely to
deal in the near future with further questions of liability and
compensation. This is undoubtedly the most important policy issue
for chemical industries in the near future. It will be discussed
in Section 8 below.
There is growing Congressional interest in governmental fore-
sight with respect to the environment and public health. Two bills
and a resolution were introduced in the 98th Congress involving
establishment of a Critical Trends Analysis Office and an Interagency
Council of Global Resources, Environment and Populations, and
expressing a "sense of the Congress" in favor of action along the
lines proposed in Global 2000. Another proposal may soon be intro-
duced that recommends establishment of an office within the Census
Bureau to coordinate Federal data collection and analysis related
to global trends. (33)
Many of the attempts to reduce Federal regulation of industry
are meeting strong opposition. Political interest groups, lacking
an ear in the White House, are turning more to Congress for support.
The courts a.re becoming more important in setting the regulatory
agendas of Federal agencies. The extent and form of judicial review
intended by Congress is increasingly being addressed in Congressional
legislation, as discussed in Section 7.
4. Federal Regulations
The responsibility for setting and enforcing regulatory guide-
guidelines is a responsibility of the Executive Branch. Federal
agencies interpret Congressional intent as expressed fh laws
setting the mandate of the agency. But they also reflect in their
regulatory decisions the policies of the Administration. The
legislative authorities affecting the life cycle of a chemical are
identified in Exhibit 15.
The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA)
governs the disposal of hazardous wastes from generation to dis-
posal, providing for the tracking of wastes through a manifest sys-
-------
-107-
EXHIBIT 15
LEGISLATIVE AUTHORITIES AFFECTING THE LIFE CYCLE OF A CHEMICAL
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
(OSHA. FIFRA)
FEEDSTOCKS MANUFACTURER S -
PROCESSOR
._::: TSCA cr^.:_^^=^-" :-...-....^: TSCA
UMtH KHC
SA \
>CA ^
i n c » A i
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
(CPSA.
rFDCA
r-FA.
FHSA
FIFHA
PP'PAI
Ir
CAA
CPSA
FFDCA
FFA
FHSA
FIFRA
FWPCA.
KEY
CLEAN AIP ACT HMTA
CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT OSHA
FED. FOOD. DRUG, & COSMETIC ACT PPPA
FLAMMABLE FABRICS ACT RCRA
FED. HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES ACT SDWA
FED. INSECTICIDE. FUNGICIDE. 6 RODENTICIDE ACT TSCA
FED. WATER POLLUTION CONTROL ACT
= HAZARDOUS MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION ACT
= OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY & HEALTH ACT
- POISON PREVENTION PACKAGING ACT
RESOURCE CONSERVATION b RECOVERY ACT
= SAFE DRINKING WATER ACT
= TOXIC SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT
Source: EPA Journal, July/August 1979.
-------
-108-
tem and for approval and monitoring of disposal sites. Regula-
tions under the Act went into effect in November 1980. The Com-
prehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act
(CERCLA, more commonly called Superfund) was passed in 1979 and
governs the cleanup of old disposal sites. Pesticides are regu-
lated under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide
Act (FIFRA) first passed in 1948 and revised in 1972 and 1978. There
are proposals under consideration to amend CERCLA (especially to "
change the tax structure under which the cleanup is funded) and to
amend FIFRA (to strengthen the Act and to give EPA more authority
to deal with pesticide emergencies, such as the discovery of EDB
in many foods). In addition, chemicals in the environment are also
regulated in various ways under provisions of the Consumer Products
Safety Act, Food and Drug laws, and the Occupational Safety and
Health Act, and others listed in Exhibit 15.
Within EPA, organizational structure reflects the fragmenta-
tion of the legal authority, with different offices responsible for
carrying out TSCA, RCRA, CERCLA, and the older laws listed in
Exhibit 15, while OSHA and CPSA, for example, are administered by
entirely different agencies. The problems of coordination are con-
stant and difficult, and in fact some observers say that there is
very little coordination. The general public, on the other hand,
tends not to recognize such distinctions and legal niceties so that
any alarm over toxic or hazardous substances tends to add to the
criticism of EPA because it is seen as the public watchdog.
The current Administration has called for more attention to
balancing the costs and benefits of regulation, allowing the mar-
ketplace to function by lowering Federal intervention, and decen-
tralizing government responsibilities through New Federalism, (34)
Between 1980 and 1983, there were declines in the number of
pollution violation cases referred to government lawyers by EPA,
in the number of Federal inspections of hazardous waste dumps, and
in the number of hazardous waste dumps targeted for Superfund clean-
up, but these are expected to rise in 1984 due to policies advocated
bv EPA's new administrator. (35)
-------
-109-
New forms of indirect regulation are emerging. RCRA requires
owners and operators of waste disposal sites to carry liability in-
surance. Insurance companies are raising their rates and develop-
ing new risk analysis techniques and inspection programs. (36)
(See Chap.3, Sec.D) Self-regulatory initiatives such as the "bub-
ble strategy" could become acceptable Federal regulatory measures
with respect to chemical regulation.
The present Administration favors the return of responsibili-
ties and regulatory control to the states, where feasible. However,
the National Governors' Association says that most states are being
forced to cut their budgets for environmental programs in proportion
to the cuts in Federal assistance. (37)
While general environmental programs may be suffering reduc-
tions, there is a tremendous growth in the state regulation of
pesticides and toxic substances.
Congressional intent to boost states' control over chemicals is
illustrated by provisions in RCRA for State control of waste site
selection, and by the proposed Harkin Amendment to the FIFRA, speci-
fically allowing states to set stricter chemical regulations and re-
quirements than those set by the Federal government. (38) Many
states are passing legislation permitting cleanup of unsafe dump
sites and recovery of costs from industry. As of May 1983, 31
states had laws involving cleanup and cost recovery. (39)
Recognition is growing within regulatory agencies, Congress,
and attentive public interest groups that media-specific regulation,
the primary thrust of regulatory strategy until now, cannot be fully
successful. Further improvement of environmental quality, if pur-
sued along the lines of concentration on clean air, clean water,
waste management, etc., under separate pieces of legislation and
varying strategies of achievement, will require extremely detailed
and cumbersome standards and criteria and costly and elaborate
systems of enforcement. In addition, this strategy has repeatedly
-------
-110-
resulted In transferring pollutants from one medium to another less
regulated medium. Recent discussions among the several interested
publics have appeared to point toward the development of more flex-
ible, multi-media, holistic strategies which could allow both indus-
try and the regulatory agencies more flexibility and discretion in
achieving performance goals.
However, reaction to the loss of the legislative veto, already
discussed, may push the Congress in a contrary direction toward
reducing the discretion allowed to regulatory agencies. The ways
in which this issue is resolved will affect the nature and rigidity
of future controls over toxic materials.
5. The States and Toxic Chemicals
In April 1983, the President's Private Sector Survey on Cost
Control (PPSSCC) reported that the Federal government, "could trim
an estimated $465 million from EPA's budget over the next three
years by handing over to the states a larger role in environmental
regulation and reducing Federal support of state environmental pro-
grams." One of the specific recommendations was that the Resource
'Conservation and Recovery Act be amended to simplify EPA's job of
issuing permits for treatment of hazardous wastes. (40J
State governments have mixed responses to such proposals at
a time when state budgets are strained to the limits. Industry
also tends to have mixed reactions. States, competing with each
other to attract or hold industry and the employment and taxes
that it generates, might be less rigorous than the Federal government
pollution control. But for nation-wide companies, the diversity
and uncertainty of dealing with 50 sources of varying environmental
regulations and standards may outweigh any benefits they might
gain. Environmentalists tend to point to the "administrative jun-
gle" and "public health disaster" that they claim has resulted
from state responsibility for control of the use of pesticides as
a model of what could be expected if the states have primary res-
ponsibility for control of toxic substances. (41)
-------
-111-
The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 left to
the states the responsibility for hazardous waste dump siting
policies,with a 1985 deadline for developing comprehensive siting
policies. In seven years, only 28 states adopted siting regula-
tions. (42) These vary considerably. Most of the states have
either vested final authority for siting decisions in an existing
state agency or established a state-wide siting board with final
authority for approving sites proposed by developers. But seven
states will themselves identify acceptable sites and six states
have delegated final decision-making authority to the local com-
munity or county in which the site is to be located. Some states
are offering revenue sharing and other economic incentives to com-
munities that will accept sites. Other states require developers
to establish trust funds to cover any future clean-up costs.
Twenty-two states have so far been unable to formulate regulations
or policies to govern future hazardous waste disposal sites. (43)
Other aspects of toxic substances control are equally new and
controversial areas for state governments, and some states have
little expertise in these areas. In the last five to eight years
there has been a decided increase in the involvement of state
governments, especially state legislators, in various attempts
to regulate toxic materials within their state.
State environmental legislation, as distinguished from laws
pertaining to conservation, state lands, and natural resources,
began in 1967, according to a recent study by the National Confer-
ence of State Legislators. (44)' Between 1967 and 1975, 16 states
added consolidated pollution control programs to their Health De-
partments, and 27 states created special environmental protection
agencies or "superagencies" that combined pollution control pro-
grams and conservation and development programs. After 1975 when
Oklahoma Was the first state to adopt a comprehensive solid and
hazardous waste management act, many states began to pass laws re-
lated to control of toxic or hazardous materials. The controls
were chiefly of hazardous wastes dumping and disposal.
-------
-112-
Between 1978 and 1983 the number of state laws relating to
various aspects of control of toxic substances increased enor-
mously. By the spring of 1983, about 500 such provisions were
introduced. There are now at least 100 such pieces of legislation
in 47 states and this number is projected to increase to 155 and
possibly to 190. (See Exhibits 16 and 17.) According to the Confer-
ence of State Legislatures, the issues of most importance to state
governments at the present are:
--hazardous waste siting --toxics in the workplace
--hazardous waste transport --groundwater contamination
--hazardous waste management --surface water contamination
hazardous materials transport chemical accidents and
emergencies
The conference report noted however, that the level of aware-
ness and understanding of toxic substance issues is still low among
state legislators; they are dependent for information on the state
executive branch and generally are unaware of requirements that
states must implement some Federal laws in this area. "Legisla-
tures find it difficult to get information of a technical nature in
a format they can work with in making policy," the report noted,
and "in many cases, information that would expedite legislative
policymaking is simply not available from any source." (45)
In the 50 states, approximately 350 legislative committees
possess review authority over various aspects of Federal laws per-
taining to toxics. These responsibilities vary according to state
constitutional and legislative structures and do not necessarily
match or fit well with Federal provisions and authorities. There
are 20 joint review or evaluation committees, 90 fiscal offices,
and a plethora of other legislative committees, commissions, and
support institutions that have some kind of review over state
-------
-113-
EXHIEIT 16*
TOTAL TOXIC'S RELATED BILLS PASSED
1960-83
YEAR Note: Dips In the line on alternative years
reflect the fact that some State
legislatures are not In session or
have short dedicated sessions during
those years.
EXHIBIT 17*
TOTALS: INTRODUCTIONS vs. BILLS
ENACTED 1978-83
tn
O
o
a
i-
ilSS-190
YEAR
* INTRO'S
-» ENACT*S
* Source: R. D. Speer, State Toxic Substances Legisi ation: Activities
and Trends, prepared for The National ConfcVehce of State Legislatures,
Denver, Colorado, and the U.S. EPA, Office of Toxics Integration,
August 31, 1983, pp. 8, 19.
-------
-114-
executive and legislative programs pertaining to toxic
substance control. Most of these had no responsibility or
authority related to toxic substances until the last few years.
Executive branch interest in and awareness of the issues began
earlier but there was no legislative or budgetary mandate for
active programs. State legislatures, as indicated by the recent
proliferation of bills passed or introduced in recent sessions,
will be more active in toxics control in the future. But manage-
ment and oversight at the state level is also becoming more
diverse and fragmented, and given the tensions between executive
and legislative actors in many state governments, this is likely
to pose problems in itself for toxic control actions at the state
level.
The most vigorous legislative action at the state level is
now in tort-related law, that is, laws relating to injury or damage
for which a civil action could be brought. This category includes
labeling, right-to-know, confidential information provisions, and
victim compensation and liability provisions. Labeling and worker
right-to-know laws have been enacted in a number of states and
the number is expected to increase. Many require the posting of
a list of substances present at a worksite rather than specific
labeling. They usually also contain provisions protecting confi-
dential business information. The overall effect and effective-
ness of such laws is unclear. The report of the National Confer-
ence of State Legislatures comments that, "States seem to be con-
ducting a balancing act between protecting the worker and [protect-
ing] business." (46)
About half of state liability provisions that have been re-
cently introduced prescribe penalties for illegal waste disposal.
The remainder are provisions merely recognizing liability for
damage caused by hazardous materials or wastes. The Conference
report notes that, "for the record...they state the obvious:
if you cause harmf you are liable." Victim compensation and sta-
tutes of limitations relating to claims for compensation are, with
-------
-115-
regard to toxic substances or wastes, new areas of action for
states and too new for their effects to have been felt. In the
future, they may have significant impacts on interpretation of
state tort law because, as noted by the Conference Report--
"... evidence of exposure requires testimony from scien-
tific and technical experts whose methods of determining
exposure do not necessarily square with the requirements
of evidence. Scientists and technicians...most often
work within the limits of statistical interpretation
when providing testimony in a claims case which is often
viewed by the courts as inadequate for proof." (47)
A number of bills require reporting by an employer to appro-
priate state agencies. The Conference report provides no informa-
tion about what data is to be reported, but notes that a few bills
provide for specific information banks such as cancer registries
which are presumably directed at providing information about the
relationship of the working history of individuals with the inci-
dence of cancer.
A few of the toxic-related bills introduced from 1980 to 1983
are appropriations for toxic clean up or for contingency planning
or for special studies of problems related to toxic substances and
hazardous wastes.
Recent legislative sessions have also seen the introduction of
bills banning specific chemicals or classes of chemicals from land-
fills or even from hazardous waste disposal facilities. These
bills generally respond to a particular incident or public alarm
and are vigorously resisted by industry lobbyists, but are expected
to increase.
Increased regulatory actions by states are generating new
governmental and industrial concerns about hindrances to inter-
state commerce by prohibiting the movement of hazardous materials,
especially wastes, across state or city borders, and the lack of
standardization in regulations among states. Other concerns in-
volve the problems faced by states in enforcing regulations and
in their ability to finance monitoring and data collection programs,
licensing requirements, and agency review processes.
-------
-116-
6. Organized Crime
There is a widespread belief, and some evidence, that organ-
ized crime is deeply involved in the handling of hazardous and toxic
wastes. Dr. Samuel Epstein, Lester 0. Brown, and Carl Pope, in
Hazardous Waste in America, published by the Sierra Club in 1982,
describe and document the extent of illegal dumping of hazardous
wastes, and comment:
"Is organized crime behind the illegal dumping industry?
No one knows for sure. Organized crime has been closely
tied to the garbage-hauling industry, especially in the
Northeast. It has been further suggested that some
hazardous wastes operations are syndicate fronts." (48)
In spite of this circumspection, Epstein et al then quote
several well-known law enforcement officials who are willing to say
flatly that underworld figures have "gained control over substantial
parts of the hazardous waste disposal industry through the estab-
lishment of 'front1 organizations and the almost instantaneous
replacement of companies caught illegally dumping with other
phony operations." (49) They recount numerous incidents of inves-
tigations, indictments, and convictions, especially in New Jersey
and Pennsylvania. The authors conclude that many reputable com-
panies deal with illegal waste handlers by looking the other way.
They suggest that the reasons are:
the lack of adequate disposal facilities;
the lack of adequate state regulation, and the failure of
states to implement and aggressively enforce such regulations
as do exist;
--the jurisdi.ctional problems between states, and the lack of
monitoring and reporting of industrial wastes leaving
one state to be illegally dumped in another;
--the lack of aggressive Federal enforcement.
As to the last point, the Department of Justice brought over
60 actions against illegal dumpers between 1979 and late 1980. (50)
The Sierra Club authors predict that, "the situation will further
deteriorate over the next five years as the chemical industry at-
tempts to dispose of not only the wastes they now generate but also
the millions of tons being stored until new disposal facilities are
available." (51)
-------
-117-
7. Litigation
"There is a trend toward greater rel'iance on the courts to reg-
ulate the chemical industry, to"act as watchdog on Federal agencies'
regulatory practices, and to adjudicate disputes. (52) Congress has
used language in laws permitting judicial review of administrative
rulingSo For example, TSCA provides that within 60 days after pro-
mulgation of a rule, any person may file a petition for judicial
review.
Increasing litigation lengthens the time before public and pri-
vate decisions can be made final. There is also a trend toward
increasing involvement of the courts in routine agency activities,
demonstrated by the following recent examples. The courts first
overturned and then sustained a January 1983 OSHA decision not to
issue an emergency standard reducing workers' exposure limit to
ethylene oxide, but ordered OSHA to expedite reconsideration of
present standards. (53) The Supreme Court overturned the OSHA rule
requiring extensive engineering changes in plants manufacturing
benzene. (New rules were proposed in December 1983.) (54) The U.S.
Court of Appeals overturned the Consumer Product Safety Commission's
ban on the use of urea formaldehyde insulation,, (55) In 1979, the
court supported the joint CMA and National Resources Defense Council
case forcing EPA to establish a schedule for addressing the Inter-
agency Testing Committee's (ITC) recommendations for testing. (56)
There are three types of toxic torts: workers' compensation,
product liability, and environmental harm (third party injury
from hazardous substances and hazardous wastes in disposal sites).
These issues are, however, hard to separate. Major recent liabili-
ty suits include:
The Johns Manville Corporation, which filed bankruptcy
rather than face up to $2 billion in private liability
suits involving asbestos exposure;
--The Superfund decision to spend $33 million to buy out
Times Beach after the city was exposed to dioxin; (57)
"Allied Ch§micals' expenditure of almost $20 million to
settle kepone exposure cases out of court and to dis-
mantle and dispose of the Hopewell, Virginia, chemical
plant; (58)
-------
-118-
--Evacuation of 263 families from Niagara Falls' Love Canal
after 82 chemical compounds were identified in the water.
Almost $27 million was appropriated by municipal, State
and Federal agencies for temporary housing and cleanup.
Over 900 notices of claims were filed against the local
government, the Board of Education, and Hooker Chemical
Company. (59)
8. The Developing Issues of Liability and Victim Compensation
Two recent legal studies examining questions of victim com-
pensation are the 301e (Superfund) Study Group and the Environ-
mental Law Institute report. (60) Both found inadequacies in
present tort law remedies available to victims of hazardous waste
insults. They structure the coming Congressional debate on lia-
bility and victim compensation according to two future avenues of
relief: a no-fault administrative fund and access to the State
courts.
Several torts are pending that may significantly alter the
liabilities of government and industry. One tort involves Hooker
Chemicals and Plastics' accidental mixture of the fire retardant
polybrominated biphenyl (PBB) with cattle feed in Michigan in 1973,
forcing the slaughter of thousands of cattle. Hooker has tenta-
tively settled with the state of Michigan, agreeing to excavate con-
taminated soil, purify the groundwater, and guarantee a $2 million
cleanup fund. (61)
Another victim compensation suit on behalf of 16,102 Vietnam
veterans exposed to dioxin (a contaminant of the defoliant Agent
Orange) has been filed against several chemical companies. Twenty-five
community wells in Long Island are now closed due to contamination
by trichloroethylene, a potential carcinogen, and more are expected
to be closed in the near future. A suit is pending. Hundreds
of women suffered toxic shock and some died following the use of
tampons made with modified fibers. Dozens of product liability
suits are pending. (62) Hundreds of thousands of people in World
War II were exposed to the mineral asbestos while working in ship-
yards. Many workers have turned to the courts and product liability
laws for relief.
-------
-119-
Victim compensation rests upon proof of causation. However,
definitively linking cause and effect is complicated by the com-
plex etiology of most chronic diseases, including latency, mutiple
targets/diseases, interaction of environmental factors, estimates
of dose levels, misdiagnosis, individual variability, and disagree-
ment among experts. (63)
TSCA addresses pre-manufacturing review of new chemicals and
regulation of existing chemicals; RCRA addresses questipns of victim
compensation and final disposal of hazardous substances. Legis-
lation recently introduced in Congress goes beyond these to address
the health and environmental effects of chemicals and chemical-
containing products during their normal use and market lifetime.
Proposed as an amendment to TSCA, the legislation would increase the
burden of liability of the manufacturer for adverse health
effects arising anytime during the normal product life
cycle. It would create direct access to Federal courts for com-
plainantsa Federal cause of action. This legislation highlights
two interacting trends: increasing sophistication about exposure
not only from point-source waste deposits but also from nonpoint
release and interaction of chemicals in the built environment, and
an emphasis on a combination of regulation and increasing access to
litigation to ensure the safety and health of the American public.
Because of the difficulty of definitively linking cause and
effect, there is a trend in compensation mechanisms to combine
limited compensation with a low threshold of proof. Whether, how.
and when to compensate people for health damages caused by exposure
to toxic substances, have raised broad legal and social questions.
These diseases often have multiple causes and long latencies.
It is often impossible to identify a single agent or manufacturer
responsible for exposure leading to the disease.
Many environmentally related illnesses are clinically indis-
tinguishable from disease of non-environmental origin or from the
aging process. The best-studied example, asbestos-induced lung
cancer, has a latency of 15-40 years and is so far indistinguish-
-------
-120-
able from other lung cancers. Additionally, studies indicate that
smoking and asbestos exposure combined have a multiplicative effect
on the risk of lung cancer death. In the same fashion, certain
organic phosphate pesticides and chlorinated hydrocarbons
interact synergistically within the body, together generating
ten times the health risk they would separately. The chlorinated
hydrocarbons interfere with the action of cholinesterase in the
liver, leaving nerve tissue especially susceptible to damage from
the phosphates. (64)
There is continuing concern for and emphasis on the 'popula-
tion at highest risk.' This population is the one most often
represented in compensation and litigation and is the one that
will drive the future of legislation and regulation. In
the future, liability may be based on the risk contributed
by an industry or product rather than on an individual's
demonstrated symptomatic response to the product. Under this
model of liability for potential rather than realized harm, a man-
ufacturer would, for example, be liable for the claims of all wo-
men that had used a product later shown to be a teratogen, not just
to the women who gave birth to congenitally defective children.
The reasoning behind this approach is that many health problems
such as leukemia or emphysema may not develop until long after
the culprit exposure. Additionally, two or more factors of risk--
say occupational exposure and particular water supply components--
may together cause illness that would not be caused by one of the
factors in isolation. This argument is being used by a group of
citizens from Woburn, Massachusetts, who were exposed to high
levels of trichloroethylene (TCE) and related known carcinogens
in drinking water. Most of the 16 children who had contracted leu-
kemia in Woburn since 1969 lived within a ten-block radius of two
wells. The citizens of Woburn have filed suit, not only on behalf
of the afflicted children, but for their own increased risk of
later illness precipitated by this earlier statistically-measured
exposure to TCE. (65)
-------
-121-
If this risk recovery approach were to become established, it
would have to be predicated on a universal scale linking overall
risk associated with a level of exposure to a particular agent.
The technical and political near-impossibility of developing any
sort of comprehensive, universal scale, acceptable to all people
and all interest groups, makes full realization of quantified risk
recovery unlikely. However, thv> evolution of common law is
likely to reflect the increasing concern of the public, not only
for physically demonstrated illness, but for mental stress, imposed
risk, and latent harm.
The pressure to place the burden of proof on scientific analy-
sis of cause and effect is reflected in a victim compensation bill
currently before Congress (H.R. 2582). This bill calls for EPA to
establish a comprehensive "health effects documents" to definitively
link exposure and etiology.
9. Environmental Mediation
Both regulatory decision-making procedures and court litigation
cause affected parties and institutions to take strongly adversarial
positions and make it difficult to achieve outcomes that are rela-
tively acceptable, if not satisfactory, to all or most of the parties
with conflicting interests and values. These procedures are also
slow and costly. The concept of environmental conflict resolution
or environmental mediation has developed within the last decade as
an alternative to adversarial procedures and litigation.
The objective of environmental mediation is to create an oppor-
tunity for parties in conflict to cooperatively develop through
direct negotiation new alternatives that can be accepted by all
parties as meeting their most essential objectives. In regulatory
decision-making situations, the ideal outcome is to have this ne-
gotiated, mutually agreed upon outcome embodied in official rules
or regulations without the necessity for adversarial proceedings.
When a neutral third party is called in to assist and facilitate
-------
-122-
the negotiations, the te'rm "mediation" is used to describe the
dispute resolution process. The term "regulatory negotiation" is
used when a regulatory agency designates an official of the agency
to join in the negotiations with the intent of publishing the out-
come as a proposed rule, which will then move through normal rule-
making procedures. (66)
Environmental mediation has been used successfully in many
disputes, on a voluntary, case-by-case basis. The Conservation
Foundation, for example, recently listed more than 40 cases in
which environmental negotiation or mediation resulted in imple-
mentable agreements. (67) For example, officials of Montgomery
County (Maryland) and local property owners negotiated, with the
assistance of the Institute for Environmental Mediation, an agree-
ment on siting of a solid waste landfill that was ratified by the
county council in February 1983. Massachusetts, Virginia, Wiscon-
sin, Montana, and Alaska have laws providing for negotiation and
mediation in certain kinds of environmental disputes (68), and at
least two states have adopted laws requiring mediation in the sit-
ing of hazardous waste dumps. (69) There are organizations offering
environmental dispute resolution assistance in many other states.
Bills have been introduced in Congress to establish a national
regulatory negotiation council. (70)
This approach is likely to become more popular, but it has in-
herent limitations. Parties to an environmental dispute, or parties
directly affected by rule-making, may have such large monetary stakes
in the outcome or such an inflexible ideological position that they
are unwilling to compromise, or they may fear that future positions
in traditional forums will be weakened by an agreement to negotiate.
There may be too many parties, with divergent or fragmented inter-
ests, to involve in a manageable negotiation. Some positions may
be inherently non-negotiable. For example, while negotiation is
faster, cheaper, and often fairer than the court system, both the
chemical industry and interest groups are frequently unwilling to
compromise on their positions. As a result, the courts will remain
the favored alternative.
-------
-123-
10. International Pressures
Proliferation of hazardous and toxic chemicals is a global
problem. The appearance of DDT in Antarctica is an example of the
necessity for cooperative, multinational action. Internal politi-
cal factors often prevent countries from acting together on these
problems. But there is growing pressure from environmental inter-
est groups within nations and from international environmental or-
ganizations for cooperative action. The effectiveness of these
groups in focusing worldwide public and political attention on
chemicals in the environment will increase.
In 1979, the European Economic Community (EEC) adopted a directive
(79/83/EEC) to upgrade procedures for testing, notification, and label-
ing of dangerous substances. (71) It specifies the type of data that
must accompany a pre-market notification. (72) Although the directive
itself has no power to delay or deny marketing of a chemical, EEC mem-
ber nations are required by treaty to pass compatible legislation
(within two years) to translate international agreement into enforce-
able domestic law.
Environmental groups are appearing in many developing and newly
developed nations. There are also worldwide coalitions of non-
governmental organizations and programs concerned with hazardous
chemical proliferation. Such international groups include:
Consumer Interpol of the International Organization of
Consumer Unions (IOCU):
t UNEP's Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS);
The newly formed Pesticide Actions Network (PAN) Inter-
national ;
The International Register of Potentially Toxic Chemicals
(IRPTC) is operated by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP). IRPTC had national correspondents in
68 countries as of January 1980.
t An International Occupational Safety and Health Hazard Alert
System is operated jointly by UNEP and the International
Labor Organization (ILO).
t The ILO also tracks chemical hazards to workers on a regular
basis.
-------
-124-
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), an
independent body under the World Health Organization, re- ,
views international data on the risk of cancer from chemi-
cals to which humans may be exposed. (73, 74)
These organizations are concerned with: :
-- improving the knowledge base on what constitutes a toxic
or hazardous chemical, including systematizing testing and
regulatory procedures among nations;
-- improving the monitoring of domestic use and international
trade in these chemicals and international practices and
trade in chemical wastes; and
-- improving the notification among nations when a chemical
has been banned in one country or tests find that it poses
adverse effects upon the environmental or public health.
Within Europe an Environmental Chemicals Documentation and
Information Network (ECDIN) has been set up to provide reliable
information on environmentally significant chemical products. It
covers scientific data, production and trade, health, and regulatory
information. (75)
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), broadly
geared to encourage free and equitable trade among nations, di-
rectly and significantly affects international trade and policy
on toxic substances. GATT and its component agreements (particu-
larly the 1979 Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade, also
known as the Standards Code) deals with national non-tariff bar-
riers raised by differing product safety and health standards,
exchange of information on standards, international dispute
settlement, international alignment of national standards.
It also encourages special assistance to developing nations to
develop national standards and practices in lines with
GATT. (76)
On a broader scale UNCTAD (the United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development) has focused on providing developing countries
with easier access to the markets of the developed countries through
reductions in tariffs and nontariff trade barriers. The tradi-
tional UNCTAD view has been that developing country suppliers are
disproportionately affected because of their more limited ability to
comply with health and safety standards and other nontariff barriers.
-------
-125-
Informal harmonization already marks much of regulation on
environmental and specifically chemical issues. TSCA and the EEC
Directive share major common features on inventory, notification,
hazard assessment, and information. More formalized international
harmonization has been discussed for many years, driven by a desire
for:
consistent world-wide protection of health and the
environment,
elimination of potential nontariff barriers to trade,
stabilization of the regulatory environment for the
chemical industry,
reduction in spending on laboratories, testing, and
regulatory experts now needed to satisfy the many
different regulatory standards. (77)
Practical limitations on harmonization are set by the self-interests
of nations in protecting their domestic industry through the use of
tariff and nontariff barriers, by different priorities among na-
tions with extremely different living standards and economic needs
and consequently different levels of acceptable risk, attitudes
towards cost-bearing for this reduction of environmental and health
hazards, access to information by foreign governments, industry,
and public interest groups vs. protection of proprietary rights.
The conflict betv/eer. supporters of the private right to con-
fidentiality vs. the public right to full disclosure has been a
continuing one within the U.S.; the same issue on a larger scale
will be no less difficult to settle on an international level among
nations.
11. U. S. Export Policy and Toxic Chemicals
Export from t.he United States of hazardous materials that are
banned or restricted in this country is vigorously protested by
international environmental and public health groups and by leading
American environmentalists. Their ethical position is that the U.S.
as the producing nation has a responsibility to the people of other
-------
-126-
nations, particularly those that may lack the expertise, the re-
sources, or the responsive political system to protect the public
health of their own population. But this is reinforced by percep-
tion of the risk of national embarrassment and increased interna-
tional tension if there is a highly visible public health disaster
that could be exploited by hostile nations or political factions.
Moreover, exported toxic chemicals sometimes come home again in
imported food and consumer goods.
The United States provides notification about hazardous ex-
ports to the governments of the importing nations under several
Federal statutes, including TSCA, A much stronger set of controls,
including a procedure that could be used in extreme cases by the
Federal government to prevent the export of hazardous materials,
was instituted by Executive Order 12264, January 15, 1981, but re-
voked a month later, when the new Administration began a review of
the issue. That review has not yet been completed. (78)
The OECD is expected to approve an export notification policy
(approved by OECD's Chemicals Group on Oct. 21, 1983) that calls
for member nations to provide a one-time advisory notice to import-
ing nations about hazardous substances that are regulated within
the exporting nation. The United States is supporting this OECD
action. (79)
Shifts in location of hazardous chemical production and waste
disposal facilities to developing countries are also contributing
to increasing international concerns over occupational health dam-
age and general exposure to hazardous chemicals within these
countries.
12. Right to Know
The conflict between a company's economic interest in keeping
its product formulas proprietary and the desire of the worker and
public to know the contents and formula of a product they are ex-
posed to has flared into political and legal battles at the com-
munity, State, and Federal levels. Industry argues the need for
-------
. -127-
trade secrets to maintain a competitive edge; the public argues
its right to informed choice about lifestyle.
The 1978 amendments to FIFRA directed EPA to make safety and
health test data available to the public; Monsanto has claimed that
the disclosure demanded by EPA would make nearly $24 million worth
of trade secrets available to competitors, and sued EPA accordingly
in 1979. In April 1983, the court ruled in Monsanto's favor, and
subsequently EPA instituted a revised registration process for
pesticides. EPA has appealed the case to the Supreme Court, which
should rule on it sometime in 1984. (80)
Trade secrets continue to be vital to industry innovation and
success, due to the fast pace of competition and the weakness of
patent protection once a formula is made public. However, the last-
ing trend is towards greater public and worker awareness and in-
volvement.
Recent legislation has favored greater public disclosures,
as in the 1978 amendment to FIFRA, but there has been little im-
plementation of this. New right-to-know laws are likely, to sup-
port the interests of the worker and the community.
Fourteen states and two cities have passed stringent right-to-
know or labeling laws. Another 12 states are considering similar
labeling laws. (81)
The typical severity of state law and differences from state
to state prompted the chemical industry to support the implementa-
tion of consistent OSHA-developed national standards on labeling.
On November 25, 1982, the Occupational Safety and Health
Administration promulgated its Hazard Communication Final Rule
(Fed.Reg.48, no.228, 53280-53348). It provides for the labeling
and provision of a Materials Safety Data Sheet for every hazardous
material used in the workplace, to show the identity and possible
health effects of every hazardous component that comprises at least
1% of the material. Known carcinogens must be labeled if they com-
prise 0.1%, and any ingredient comprising less than 1% must be
-------
-128-
labeled if it could be hazardous at that concentration, or if there
is evidence that permissible exposure limits might be exceeded in
the workplace. The rule applies only to manufacturing, not to all
workers who might be exposed to chemicals.
The manufacturer or importer may, to protect his economic
well-being, use his own discretion in withholding the identity
(although not the effects) of a chemical; there is provision for
challenging this action.. The rule provides an advisory (not manda-
tory) list of sources of data. But the manufacturer or importer
may stipulate that no information is available about health effects.
The rule is less stringent than that proposed by the previous
Administration in 1981. (82) The OSHA rule specifically preempts
state laws, including those which are more stringent than the
Federal rule. It is almost certain that the rule will be chal-
lenged in court on the grounds that the OSHA Act of 1970 was not
intended to mean that state laws more stringent than Federal stan-
dards could be construed as in conflict with the Federal standard. (83)
The new OSHA rule and a series of other rpcent OSHA and EPA
rules "ultimately should lessen employee and public exposure to
dangerous chemicals," according to Timothy Atkeson of Steptoe &
Johnson, Washington attorneys. "In the short run, though, they
will substantially increase the product liability exposure of
manufacturers and importers by providing potential plaintiffs
with data on exposure, causation, injury, and possible negligence
of management." (84) The EPA rules are those promulgated under TSCA,
Sec. 8.
A coalition of environmental groups led by the Natural Resources
Defense Council (NRDC) successfully negotiated the release of in-
dustry health and safety test data on 11 pesticides submitted under
FIFRA requirements. But the release of the sensitive industry
data, intended by NRDC for review by independent scientists, hinged
on NRDC's guarantee to severely limit distribution of the data. (85)
The European Economic Community (EEC) in 1983 also adopted new
labeling standards, increasing the disclosure required in European
markets. (86)
-------
-129-.
The potential impact of accidental or intentional release
of a chemical formula is especially great from foreign countries.
In May 1982 the formula for Monsanto's herbicide Roundup, the best-
selling herbicide around the globe, was accidentally released;
Roundup provided $450 million and 40% of profits on sales, mostly
from foreign countries. (87) Although Monsanto's successful suit
required EPA to monitor U.S. patents for products based on the
accidentally released Roundup information, the, possible loss of
revenue to foreign producers cannot be documented.
13. Computers and Telecommunications
A new source of communications and information available to
the public appeared with the introduction and mass distribution of
the microcomputer and with improvements in telecommunications.
Telematics technologies will have a significant influence on
the right-to-know debate, weighting it in favor of enhanced public
access and activism. While telematics does not necessarily open
up access to proprietary industry information, it will provide
generic changes in the management and availability of data. Sophis-
ticated data base management, national networking, computerized
recordkeepinq and data processing, and the pervasiveness of computer
skills and access will permit wide-ranging data to be compiled and
correlated in new ways. Data that has previously been available
yet isolated will be tapped for new knowledge about linkages with
occupational and public health, environmental transport and impacts,
and systems models.
In addition, the mass availability of cheap electronic systems
is personalizing environmental, regulatory, and economic analysis
and modeling. Vast amounts of data can be manipulated by indi-
viduals, organizations, and governments. As a result, governmental
decisionmaking is increasingly complex, assessing the short- and
long-term implications of their decisions on numerous factors. The
public's ability to followed participate in this process can be
expected to increase in the future.
-------
-130-
Computerized data base management has enabled the Audubon So-
ciety to organize an extensive, responsive national network of
citizen activists. Over 50,000 of the 500,000 members of the
Audubon Society are listed in a data base according to congres-
sional districts. When relevant legislation conies up, activists
in affected or key districts are automatically and quickly
mobilized. (88)
14. The Media as Catalyst
The post-industrial society is characterized by an explosion
of environmental and health-related information available to the
public, through print, radio, and television. The media has been
the major factor in public awareness and perceptions of chemicals
in the environment, and in identifying emerging policy issues and
"mustering the political and bureaucratic forces necessary to ob-
tain 'legislation, appropriations, regulations, and new or expanded
programs to address these problems." (89) Many Federal, State, and
local initiatives are directly attributed to media coverage of en-
vironmental concerns and events.
But media coverage of chemical-related news is often unbal-
anced, capitalizing on the sensational aspects of health and en-
vironmental problems. Since Love Canal in 1978, the press has
regularly provided the public with vivid, but often distorted,
accounts of hazardous waste mismanagement.
According to the 1979 Directory of Environmental Periodicals,
Vance Bibliographies, there then were 413 periodicals covering
aspects of environmental pollution and control. This included 46
abstracting and indexing services, 195 journals, and 172 newsletters
and bulletins. (90)
C. SOURCES OF INCREASED ALARM OVER TOXIC SUBSTANCES, 1984-1995
Sometime in the future, probably within the next five years,
there are likely to be strong public and political demands for in-
creased attention to existing chemicals -- those that have been
-------
-131-
produced and used in great volume for many years. Available infor-
mation about these chemicals, their past and present producers,
where they were-produced, their health and environmental effects,
and their present location, is sparse and dispersed. Some of the
ways irt which these demands may suddenly arise are suggested in
this section. We have already identified long-range societal
trends and shorter term political factors that point to sustained
and increasing public support for environmental protection, and
much sharper focus on direct health effects of toxic substances,
and an internationalization of demands for their control.
Active demand for further governmental action to control toxic
substances is likely to be episodic, and is most likely to arise as
a result of specific highly publicized incidents. For example,
three likely sources of such acute alarms are (a) the discovery of
groundwater contamination with toxic chemicals threatening drinking
water supplies, (b) one or more disasters related to transport of
chemicals, and (c) discovery of widespread contamination from old,
forgotten toxic wastes. The latter may sooner or later come about
through the sudden release of toxic materials as a result of some
natural disaster, or a technological failure such as the breaking
of a dam containing polluted sediments. In each of these
categories, the source of pollutants might well not be the chemical
industries and might be many decades old, but the political effects
would nevertheless severely impact the chemical industries because
the public tends not to make such fine distinctions in demanding
action.
1. Groundwater Contamination: An Inevitable Political Issue
Groundwater contamination is already becoming a matter of ac-
tive public concern.
Well educated, science-oriented professionals -- scientists,
engineers, teachers, editors, etc., are already highly conscious
of the problem of groundwater contamination, as indicated by recent
studies done for EPA. (91) In a series of workshops and surveys
-------
-132-
of participants in national meetings of several major professional
societies, groundwater contamination was consistently picked as one
of the half-dozen most important environmental problems of the next
one to two decades. This concern will tend to become more wide-
spread as it is reflected in the "popular science" and environmen-
tal literature.
Inevitably, further discoveries of contaminated groundwater
resulting in the closing of wells and affecting the drinking water
of large numbers of people, will occur and will result in a sudden
focusing of attention, alarm, and demands for political action.
The 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Toxic Sub.-
stances Control Act thus could be merely the beginning of a series
of attempts to protect groundwater.
About 95% of fresh water in the United States is stored in
aquifers, with rivers, lakes, and other surface waters accounting
for only about 4%. Between 40% and 50% of the population and 747.
of U.S. cities depend on groundwater as a primary source of drink-
ing water. (92) Western irrigation and livestock watering, which
also require high quality water, also depend largely on groundwater.
(See Exhibit 18.)
EXHIBIT 18
USE OF GROUNDWATER
1950
1980
Total use of groundwater 34 bgd*
Public supplies 12%
Proportion of irrigation 62%
Proportion of industry use 18%
Proportion of rural
drinking water 8%
88.5 b.gd
13%
68%
14%
5%
Source: U.S. EPA, Proposed Ground Water Protection
Strategy, Office of Drinking Water, 1980; unpub-
lished data from U.S.G.S. Water Information Service
reported in Veronica I. Pye, Groundwater Contamin-
ation in the United States," see footnote 95.
*bi"l1ion gallons per day.
-------
-133-
Contamination of groundwater does not necessarily or even
primarily result from industrial waste. Municipal landfills,
sewage, leaching from mining activities, agricultural runoff and
irrigation water, animal wastes from feed lots, and highway runoff
are major sources. Natural contamination -- leaching of radio-
active materials and naturally occurring chemicals from the soil,
and intrusion of seawater as a result of aquifer depletion -- is
also important.
In 1980, EPA estimated that between 0.1% and 1.4% of aquifers
were contaminated by industrial impoundments or landfills. (93)
Lehr estimates as a worst case that such pollution affects between
0.2% and 2.0% of major groundwater deposits. (94) But these
estimates are unrealistic. They are rvow recognized as far too low.
They were based in part on regional assessments commissioned by
EPA in the 1970's. Three of the eight assessments commissioned
were never completed. At the time the regional assessments were
done, sampling for organic chemicals was rarely undertaken, and
pollution from natural causes and from agricultural practices was
considered to be the major concern. (95) Aquifer contamination
is difficult to detect and trace because of the long lag time
between occurrence and detection, which usually comes only as
pollutants show up in tests of wells, and because the dynamics of
underground flow of water and transport of pollutants is very
poorly understood. The assessments, therefore, almost certainly
grossly understated the problems.
There has still been no comprehensive national survey of ground-
water. EPA under the Safe Drinking Water Act requires all states to
do an aquifer and injection well identification program, and some
states have inventoried known cases of groundwater contamination.
These inventory programs were not complete as of 1983; what data
is available is being collected by the Environmental Assessment
Council of The Academy of Natural Sciences and is reported in a
paper prepared for The National Science Foundation in August 1983,
by Veronica Pye. (96) See Exhibit 19.
-------
EXHIBIT 19
REPORTED INCIDENTS OF GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION
% of
total water
use from
State cjroundwater
Arizona
Connecticut
Florida
Idaho
Illinois
Nebraska
Mew Jersey
Mew Mexico
South Carolina
61%
8.2%
18%
31%
801
10
68%
60%
92%
23%
No. of
reported
incidents
23
64
92
29
58
35
379
105
89
% of incidents Mo. and percent
threatening incidents
drinking water traced to Major source of
supplies industry waste pollutants
100%
59%
63%
97%
76%
34%
50%
83%
74%
7
28
32
7
12
0
152
0
28
30%
44%
35%
24%
21%
0%
40%
0%
31%
Human/animal wastes, landfills
Industrial wastes, petroleum
products
Saltwater intrusion, agricul-
ture return, industrial waste
Human/aninal wastes, industrial
wastes
Human/animal wastes, landfills
Irrigation, agriculture
Industrial wastes, petroleum
products
Oil field brines (41%), human/
animal wastes
Petroleum products, industrial
wastes
As reviewed by Environmental Assessment Council, reported in Veronica I. Pye, "Groundwater Contamination
in the United States," Workshop on Groundwater Resources and Contamination in the United States,
Summary and Papers, national Science Foundation PRA Report 83-12, August 1983, Washington, D.C.,
March 14-15, 1983, pp. 36-41.
GO
-P.
I
-------
-135-
Human health can be affected by consumption of contaminated
water or by consumption of fresh food irrigated by or processed
with it. If the concentration of pollutants is high, skin and re-
spiratory problems can result from showering or bathing. Accord-
ing to the Centers for Disease Control, reporting of disease due
to water pollutants is poor and probably reflects only a fraction
of cases. (97)
The EPA laboratory in Cincinnati has information on reported
outbreaks of disease attributable to groundwater. (98) Between
1959 and 1980, 303 cases of illness were attributed to contami-
nation with copper, selenium, fluoride, nitrate, arsenic, and
sodium hydroxide, and 52 cases of illness (in six "outbreaks")
due to toxic organic chemicals. These reported incidents do not
include illnesses attributed to pathogens (bacteria, viruses,
protozoa, worms, fungi) in groundwater, of which there were 31,425
cases, in 158 distinct outbreaks, from 1945 to 1980. Incidents
suggestive of chronic public health effects due to contaminated
groundwater have been cited for cancer, malformations, miscarriage,
central nervous system disorders, and cardiovascular disease, but
there are few controlled epidemiological investigations to confirm
these reports. (99)
Recent authoritative assessments generally conclude that seri-
ously degraded groundwater probably constitutes only a minor frac-
tion of the total national groundwater supply. (100) But "of the
33 toxic organic chemicals most frequently found in groundwater,
31 have been reviewed for carcinogenicity. Two were found to be
human carcinogens, 10 are confirmed animal carcinogens, but 15 have
yet to be tested." (101) Carcinogenic and mutagenic effects are usually
delayed and would probably not be traced to a specific environmental
effect. But public concern about the relationship between environ-
mental chemicals and such health effects is increasing, so that
identification of toxic chemicals in water supplies will attract
immediate attention and alarm.
-------
-136-
2. Transport of Toxi c Chemicals
Transport accidents that release toxic materials into the
environment pose both acute dangers to public safety and health
and long-term detrimental effects on surface and groundwater and
ecological systems. (102) They also can force the evacuation of large
numbers of people and impose heavy costs on local government.
They have been of growing concern since the late 1960's.
The chemical manufacturers cooperatively established, in 1971,
an organization called CHEMTREC, to respond to emergencies by pro-
viding information on chemicals released accidentally and by con-
tacting the shipper, who is responsible for advising local author-
ities on how to handle the problem. CIOTRCC now has information
on the chemical nature and characteristics of 60,000 commercial
chemicals. (103)
The U.S. Department of Transportation has been collecting data
on transport accidents involving hazardous materials since 1971.
Hazardous materials include toxic, flammable, reactive, and cor-
rosive materials, and the data provided in Exhibit 20 does not dis-
tinguish between these categories. A partial list of accidents
involving toxic chemicals, which is merely illustrative and in no
vjay comprehensive, is provided in Exhibit 21. Both exhibits indi-
cate deaths, injuries, and in some cases evacuations resulting from
the accidents. But toxic spills from accidents may also have long-
range effects on human health through oral, dermal, and inhalation
exposure and by contaminating surface water, groundwater, soil,
crops, livestock, and wildlife. It is, however, likely to be
incidents with multiple acute effects that provoke strong public
and political reactions.
On the same day, February 26, 1978, vaporizing chlorine gas
from a train derailment in Florida killed eight people and hos-
pitalized 67; and an explosion of liquid propane gas being unloaded
from a derailed railroad tank car in Tennessee killed 9 and injured
51. Even accidents that cause no acute injuries can be significant.
-------
EXHIBIT 20
INCIDENTS BY MODE AND REPORTING YEAR
MVK 1971
AIR 4
titt(H) 1.562
HVlf(P) 224
RAILNVY 343
WtfER 11
FRT FWCR 0
OTHER 121
TOTAL 2.265
1972
33
3.558
342
333
9
0
53
4.328
1973
49
5.048 7
419
409
12
0
66
6,003 8
1974
157
.251
361
616
26
2
15
.428
1975
152
8,988
903
676
32
6
12
10.769
1976 1977
90 130
10.223 13.000
549 1.250
982 1,500
13 50
11 20
21 0
11,889 15.950
1978
231
1979
284
15,983 15,355
565
1.191 1
47
5
0
18.022 17
623
.215
34
2
11
.524
1980
233
14,042
442
1,327
42
1
28
16,115
1981
160
7,441
263
1,131
7
3
58
9.063
1982
97
5,274
321
830
9
6
3
6,540
TOTAL
1.6)0
107.725
6,262
10,553
292
56
388
126,896
DEATHS W MXE AM) REKKTIM3 YEAR
MI£ 1971
AIR 0
KAY(H) 18
ttW(P) 5
RAILWAY 0
WATER 0
FRT FWCR 0
CHHER 0
TOTAL 23
1972
0
6
6
0
0
0
0
12
1973
0
11
7
3
0
0
0
21
1974
4
14
4
10
0
0
0
32
1975
0
7
20
0
0
0
0
27
1976 1977
0 0
12 14
4 17
2 1
0 0
0 0
0 0
18 32
1978
0
14
6
26
0
0
0
46
1979
0
12
6
0
0
0
0
18
1980
0
13
4
2
0
0
0
19
1981
0
24
3
0
0
0
0
27
1982
0
11
1
0
0
0
0
12
IKJLRIE3 BY MTE AM) REfCRTINQ YEAR
KTB 1971
AIR 0
Htt(H) 122
Hff(P) 60
RAILWAY 21
VATQI ^g
FRT FWCR 0
OtHKA 2
TOTAL 253 "
£EE 1971
IR °
IVY(H) 3.118.508 3.
Sv*(P) 1,661,475 2.
kAJLWAX 1.491.745 1.
IW.TER 201.052 i.
TCT FWCR 0
TIMER 136,005
IDEAL 6,608,785 9.
1972
0
192
49
53
0
0
0
294
1971
2,853
587.379 2
701,368 1
549,355 3
252,096
0
223^925
316,976 7
Note: HWY(H) =
1873
6
297
38
152
3
0
13
509
1973
5,104 4,511
.604.163 3,849
.713.518 924
,021,685 11,965
8.009 20
0
14,439 13
.366.913 21,284
Highway (For
source: '
1974
5
243
38
596
17
4
0
903
l?74
.708
,176 3,
.980 2,
.143 1,
.117-
0
.035
.159 7,
Hire)
1975
4
395
92
96
2
15
51
655
DAMAGES
1975
9,159
028,405 3
574,211 2
481.995 2
6.331
3.345
182
103,628 7
1976 1977
4 9
568 447
49 60
198 233
1 0
0 0
0 0
820 749
BY MIX AM) REKKTIK)
1976 1977
20.512 28,686
,617,548 4.272,106
,057,017 4,356,545
.294,633 7.815,243
5,270 18,258
405 351
3,788 9,700
.999,173 16,500,889
1978
43
536
58
482
10
1
0
1.130
YEAR (IN DOLLARS)
1979
13
608
89
228
1
0
2
941
1978 1979
6.834 30
7,440,533 5,372
3,819.373 3.552
6.848,364 5.781
17,912 30
160
0 5
18,133,176 14,772
, HWY(P) ° Highway (Private), FRT FRWDR
nformation Systems, Materials
Transportation
,312
,736 4,
.533 2,
.500 2.
.364
0
,100
,545 10,
1980
8
425
53
129
1
1
2
619
1980
12,486 .
343,739 9,
979,889 3,
834,030 2,
507,427
100
29,365
707,036 15,
1981
7
368
29
221
0
0
18
643
198L
6,660
656,923
016,558
652,827
53,045
6,500
69,108
461,621
1982
0
76
17
36
1
0
0
130
1982
28,001 4,
8,640,420 59,
2,719,137 32,
4,068,195 51,
30,000 2,
35
200
15,485,988 150,
TOTAL
4
156 1
83 1
44
0
0
0
287
CO
i
TOTAL
99
4,277
632
2,445
84
21
88
7.646
TOTAL
662,315
531,636
076.604
804,715
149.881
10,896
504,847
740,894
= Freight Forwarder
Bureau,
-------
EXHIBIT 21
ACCIDENTS INVOLVING TOXIC CHEMICALS: REPRESENTATIVE INCIDENTS
February 4. 1973. Train derailment near Woodland Park, Mich.
Leakage from tank car carrying ethylene oxide. Other tanks
carrying a variety of intermediate chemicals were undamaged.
19 evacuated. ChemWeek. Feb. 15. 1978.
February 26, 1978. Train derailment near Youngstown, Fla.,
because of broken rail. Chlorine gas vaporized, 1:30 a.m.
8 killed. 67 hospitalized, 2,500 evacuated for two days.
New York Times, Feb. 27, 1978. p. 78.
February 26, 1978. Derailed tank cars of liquid propane gas,
being unloaded near Uaverly, Tenn.. exploded. A second 20,000-gal.
car was unloaded successfully.
9 dead, 51 injured, 14 buildings destroyed, 1,500 evacuated.
New York Times, Feb. 27, 1933.
December 15, 1978. Tanker semitrailer struck by locomotive at
grade crossing near Boute, La. Tanker contained 7,500 gal. of
liquified anhydrous ammonia. Estimated more than 13 tons
vaporized.
3 killed by inhalation. C4EN. June 23, 1980. pp. 46-49.
Hay 8, 1979. Train derailment near Crestvlew, Fla. Propulsive
venting and fire involving anhydrous ammonia, acetone, methanol,
chlorine, phenol, carbon tetrachloride, sulfur, urea.
1 injured. C4EN. June 23. 1979, pp. 46-49.
October 29, 1979. Bottom fell from truck on Interstate 80 near
Sacramento, Cal. Cargo of unnamed hazardous chemical spillec.
42.000 evacuated. Washington Star, Oct. 29, 1979.
November 8, 1979. Train derailment near Inwood, Ind. Eight
breached tank cars, containing acetic anhydride, butyl methacrylate,
ethyl chloride, ethylene oxide, isobutyl alcohol, methacrylic acid,
propylene. naphtha, propylene oxide, sodium hydroxide, vinyl
chloride. "Many" complaints of respiratory effects and nausea,
subsurface ground contamination.
C&EN. June 23, 1980, pp. 46-49.
November 11, 1979. 106-car train derailment near Mississauga,
Ontario. 11 tank cars carrying liquid propane exploded, chlorine
gas leaked; other tank cars carrying caustic soda, styrene, toluene
were not damaged.
218.000 evacuated. Newsweek, Nov. 26, 1979, p. 70,
and Nov. 24, 1980, pp. 20-23.
November 12, 1979. Train tank car derailment near Holland, Mich.
No leak of contents, hydrogen fluoride.
1.000 evacuated as precaution.
* C4EH. Nov. 19, 1979, p. d.
April 5. 1980. Tank car containing 13,500 gal. phosphorus
trichloride struck by locomotive in switching yard, Somerville,
Mass. Fumes.
11 hospitalized, 422 treated and released. 7,000 evacuated,
8 square blocks of buildings closed.
New York Times. Apr. 5, 1930.
November 6, 1981. Tanker truck leaked at truck stop on Interstate 5
near Castaic, Cal. 2,000 gal. of propylene dichloride spilled.
8 hospitalized. New York Times. Nov. 6. 1331.
February 3, 1982. Truck hit median strip near Strouds&urg, Penn.
12 tons hydrogen chloride vaporized.
1,200 evacuated in 2 sq. mi. radius.
New York Times. Feb. 4. 1332.
August 5. 1932. Tank truck split, reason unknown, on Pennsylvania
Turnpike near Norristown. Penn. 5.000 gal. of two chemicals used in
plastics manufacture spilled, resulting in release of hydrochloric
acid.
1,500 evacuated. New York Times. Aug. 5, 1982.
August 19, 1982. Truck damaged by pre-existing corrosion, spilled
5,000 gal. of hydrochloric acid on Jersey Turnpike near Elizabeth.
32 overcome by fumes, 20 treated, 5 hospitalized.
New York Times, Aug. 19, 1932.
September 30, 1932. Derailment of 43 chemical tank cars near
Livingston, La. Hydrogen chloride, sodium, vinyl chloride. Fire
and explosion.
3,300 evacuated, ground and water contamination over vni. radius.
New York Times. Sept. 30, 1982.
January 12, 1983. Tank truck collided with disabled tractor-trailer
on 1-81 near Watertown, N.J.. spilling 3,700 gal. of toluene
di-isocynate.
3 treated, 200 evacuated from homes, 300 from hotels, closure for
one day of two shopping plazas, school, rehabilitation center.
New York Times. Jan. 12. 1933. p. 33.
April 3, 1983. Ruptured railroad tankers near downtown Denver.
Spill of 18,000 gal. nitric acid.
5,000 evacuated for 8 hours.
Washington Post, Apr. 4, 1933.
OJ
CO
l
-------
-139-
In January 1983 a truck collision in Watertown, New Jersey,
spilled 3700 gallons of toluene diisocyanate; only three people
were treated for minor reactions, but 200 were evacuated from nearby
homes, 300 were evacuated from two hotels, and two shopping plazas,
a school, and a rehabilitation center were closed for two days.
In 1979 there were eight times as many toxic chemical trans-
port accidents as in 1971, eight years earlier. During this eight
years, CHEMTREC responded to 16,000 emergency calls, of which
13,500 involved transport accidents, 85% of which were rail or
truck accidents. (104) The eight-fold increase is attributed to
better reporting, to an QQ% increase in shipments by volume, and
possibly to further deterioration in railroad equipment and road-
beds. In 1979 there were 17,524 "unintended releases of materials,"
about 10% of which were extremely hazardous. (105) Two years ear-
lier, in 1977, the Department of Transportation had estimated that
one of every 23 railroad shipments contained hazardous material,
and one of every ten truck shipments. Some reports now say that up
to 15% of trucks on highways carry hazardous materials. (106) The
majority" of these shipments, however, involve petroleum rather than
other toxic chemicals.
The number of hazardous transport accidents has declined
yearly from 1980 to 1982, presumably because the economic reces-
sion reduced the volume of shipments.
In addition to CHEMTREC, which is run by the Chemical Manufac-
turers Association (and which will not give advice to local emer-
gency teams on site, but will put them in touch with industry
experts), there are at least six chemical industry mutual assis-
tance organizations like CHLOREP (Chlorine Emergency Plan)* These
are organized around specific products or classes of products,,
When there is a transportation (or other) emergency involving these
products, the nearest company belonging to the mutual assistance
organization responds by sending a disaster management team to the
spot. (107) Another group, the National Response Center, is funded
by EPA and the U.S. Coast Guard and sends experts to the accident
scene if needed. (108)
-------
-140-
3. Widespread Contamination from Disruption of Old Repositories
of Toxics
The recent incidents at Love Canal and Times Beach are undoubt-
edly going to be followed by similar incidents that gain nation-
wide publicity. Both of these incidents were fairly localized and
the risks were contained. However, there are thousands of toxic
waste depositories that could be disrupted by the effects of human
engineering or natural disasters, and their contents widely dis-
persed by flood waters or other natural forces. The same is, of
course, true of many small facilities actively processing or using
toxic chemicals. Such occurrences have probably happened in the
past without the toxic contaminants being discovered, identified,
or publicized, but they may not escape notice in the future.
Toxic substances stored in the environment and sub.iect to
inadvertent release need not be the products of 20th Century
chemical industries. The second half of the 19th Century was the
period in which America became industrialized, and 19th Century
manufacturing made plentiful use of arsenic, mercury, lead, cyanide,
arrj other toxic materials that are enduring and do not necessarily
lose their toxicity over time. Waste products from this widely
dispersed, small" to medium-scale manufacturing were routinely
heaped on site, poured into nearby water bodies (flowing water
was assumed to cleanse itself quickly), or dumped into ravines or
on unused land, (109) From time to time these old wastes come to
light. A recent example occurred in North Woburn, Massachusetts,
where over 100 years ago Merrimack Chemical Company began making
chemicals for the textile industry. flerrimack expanded to
become one of the largest producers of arsenic-based pesticides.
In the summer of 1979, officials learned that there
was an open pit, a dry lagoon, covering about an acre of
land in which arsenic was piled in caked white powder
several feet thick. So concentrated were the arsenic,
lead, and other chemicals that a mere 45 oounds of the
soil would (contain) enough to administer a lethal
dosage to 100 adults To compound the problem the
-------
-141-
arsenic has been scattered widely by winds and rain
and has contaminated a river watershed known as the
Aberjona, which courses through Winchester on its way
to the Atlantic Ocean. Nearby Mystic Lake may also be
endangered. (110)
On February 21, 1981, the Boston Globe reported that the Na-
tional Centers for Disease Control were examining infants in Hudson,
New Hampshire, who had been exposed to high levels of arsenic
found in at least 63 wells in the community. Nine other New
Hampshire communities, and a few in Massachusetts, were also
found to have high concentrations of arsenic (in concentrations of
over 0.05 will igro.u.s per litor). According to the [i_U)bc, tiic EPA
had launched an investigation to "determine whether the arsenic
is a natural component of the water or represents man-made pollu-
tion." Although the newspaper did not mention it, and EPA may not
yet have realized it, it is quite possible that the arsenic in
the New England wells is a residue from 19th Century industries.
Old and more recent accumulations of persistent toxic chemi-
cals could thus be easily dispersed by the action of earthquakes,
subsidence, storm surges, and floods, and thereby contaminate
crop lands, potable water supplies, groundwater, and residential
communities. Of particular concern is the accumulation of per-
sistent toxic materials in sedimentary deposits in water bodies
and behind dams. A literature search reveals that there is
almost no systematic information or research on the chemical nature
of sediments, which are almost certainly the current repository of
two centuries of industrial by-products predating modern watc*r
pollution controls. (Ill)
-------
-142-
Regular dredginc and deposit of spoils on land is subject to some
environmental controls, although it is not certain that the chemical
contents of the deposits are generally anticipated or investigated.
But the failure of hazardous dams or their emergency repair can re-
lease these wastes of twenty decades to be spread by flood waters
over residential areas and farm lands and into ground and surface
waters.
The Army Corps of Engineers, beginning in 1978, inspected 8,778
dams under Presidential order, following several disastrous dam
failures the preceding year. Of these, 2,918 were judged unsafe
and 132 required emergency repairs. (112) Over 1,582 of the dams
inspected were built before 1900; these could hold polluted sedi-
ments from both 19th Century manufacturing and 20th Century chemi-
cal processing. Of these, 20% were unsafe. Many are owned
by private companies, individuals, or small communities that cannot
afford the high costs of repair or dismantling. The states are
responsible for decisions about what must be done, but little
action has been taken. (113)
4. Acid Precipitation
A pervasive and important environmental issue relevant to
toxic substances is acid precipitation -- acid rain, fog, and *
snow. Acid rain has a direct effect on the release and transport
of toxic substances, primarily heavy metals, altering the natural
process of mineral leaching in soil. Experts are divided as to the
relative contributions of acid rain, changing land use patterns,
anthropogenic release, vegetative progression, and variations in
soil composition to the leaching of metals from the soil. (114)
Some recent statements by EPA scientists indicate that "proven
damages" now amount to "only tens of millions" of dollars whereas
control strategies could cost tens of billions. (115) Other ex-
perts think the damage is much higher. An August 1983 article in
Science argued that local geological conditions may often dominate
leaching, especially where the soil is naturally quite acidic, as
in humus-rich soils. (116)
-------
-143-
There is consensus, however, that for a complex combination of
reasons, including the generation of sulfur dioxide by fossil fuel
combustion, that the acidity of rain and surface water is increasing.
In addition to its broad effects on forests, buildings, and
aquatic life, acid rain has specific effects on the leaching of
toxic metals. This leaching of heavy metals, including aluminum,
lead, mercury, nickel, zinc, cadmium, and manganese, has been linked
to the death of plants, fish, and both aquatic and soil-based micro-
organisms. (117) These heavy metals are normally present in the soil
primarily in nontoxic form, bound to insoluble organic complexes. (118)
With the increase in soil acidity due to acid rain, however, and de-
pending on the local composition of the soil, heavy metals are freed
from these complexes into soluble, and toxic, form.
The most common toxic metal, and the most-studied one, is
aluminum. Released and washed into the watershed by acid conditions,
aluminum is deposited on the gills of fish as aluminum hydroxide,
interfering with the uptake of oxygen and killing the fish. The
dominant cause of death of fish in acid rain affected lakes is as-
phyxiation.
Aluminum is also toxic to plant life, damaging the roots and
interfering with the uptake of liquids by the plant. This paves
the way for invasion by bacteria, fungi, viruses, and other pathogens.
The plant is finally killed by a combination of starvation, disease,
and poisoning.
Aluminum and the heavy metals also damage soil microorganisms
which decompose vegetation and recycle plant nutrients. As a result
of acid rain, these microorganisms start to generate their own acids,
adding to the acid burden on the soil. (119)
As yet scientifically unsubstantiated is the potential of acid
rain to directly affect human health, primarily by contaminating
drinking water through the leaching of metals into water supplies
and in piping. Another unquantified threat is the concentration of
heavy metals, especially mercury, through the food chain. (120)
-------
-144-
Acid rain will exacerbate the chronic problem of pollution from
stormwater runoff, the major non-point source of water pollution in
urban areas. Stormwater runoff pollution comes from several sources,
primarily, :
t runoff from roadways and property in the city,
discharged directly into local waterways,
overburdening of the sewer systems, causing
a sewer overflow into local streams.
The primary pollutants picked up and carried by urban stormwater
are suspended solids and organic materials. The usually rapid
increase in sedimentation and biochemical oxygen demand can harm
aquatic life.
Runoff from urban paving also contains lead, cadmium, and other
toxic substances, and constitutes a major polluter of soils, streams,
and groundwater. The 30,000 miles of highways are deteriorating
rapidly, accelerating leaching and creating a growing disposal
problem. Much of paving was surfaced with asbestos mine tailings,
and along with demolition of old buildings is likely to release
asbestos fibers to the environment. In addition, buildings that
were used for manufacturing, processing, and storage, especially
before modern health and safety regulations, may contain residues of
toxic substances. The corrosive effects of acid precipitation
add to the potential for environmental dispersal of these toxic
residues.
Future understanding of the contribution of acid rain to the
dispersal of toxic substances in the environment, through corrosion
of buildings, contamination of water, bioaccumulation, or leaching
into the soil, will depend on the results of further scientific
investigation as well as on the future of environmental control of
sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxides release. However, acid rain is
a politically significant environmental issue, of both international
and interregional concern. Public acknowledgement of a close tie
between acid rain and toxic metal contamination could exacerbate the
issue even further.
-------
-145-
D. A SUMMARY OF EMERGING, NEAR-TERM POLITICAL ISSUES AFFECTING
THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES
The social, political, and environmental trends and events
mentioned above will exacerbate some issues already on the public
agenda and create new public policy challenges. Besides the
general environmental issues already discussed, that is, demand
for more rigorous control of toxic chemicals and the deve"!opment
of a flexible but effective all-media strategy for reducing pollu-
tion, some specific issues that will come to a head in the next
two to five years should be reemphasized because they may have
major impacts on the chemical industries.
One major issue will be the chemical industry's concern that
trade secrets and confidential information be protected vs. the
demand of public interest groups that the government make avail-
able information on:
-- the quality of health and safety testing information for
chemicals;
-- chemical formulas of pesticides and other chemicals;
-- manufacturing process data, including intermediate
chemicals present in the workplace;
-- analytical techniques used to obtain toxicology data; and
-- administrative proceedings involving chemical companies.
Official Federal policy is yet to be developed on interagency shar-
ing of confidential chemical industry data.
A second major issue will be genetic screening. Some industry
work environments contain carcinogens, embryo- and fetotoxins, skin
and lung irritants, and other health hazards. Fear of worker
compensation suits is leading some companies to screen workers
for susceptibility to these conditions. Tin's has already become
a civil rights issue and a women's rights issue. The legality and
social acceptability of screening workers according to fertility,
genetic, or lifestyle criteria will become importaiit political
issues in the next decade. Hhether screening discriminates ac'a
certain workers and whether it alleviates the industry's obliga-
-------
-146-
tion to ensure a safe workplace will be of primary concern. The
Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (121) identifies
three issues that Congress faces on genetic screening. They are:
What actions could Congress take with respect to genetic
testing in the workplace?
-- How could Congress regulate genetic testing in the work-
place?
-- How could Congress foster the development and use of this
technology?
Other policy issues to be resolved in the near future are:
-- How should the U.S. government react to hazardous and
toxic substance problems that transcend national borders?
What accountability should the U.S. have to other nations
for chemical testing, monitoring exports, notifying other
nations of chemical toxicity, or compensating victims of
hazardous chemical exposure?
What responsibility does society have for compensating
unwitting victims of hazardous chemicals? Which of
several approaches are appropriate for victim compensa-
tion when no liable party can be found: Federal grants
to states, Federal loan compensations programs, a pollu-
tion charge on manufacturers, or a fund maintained by
potential polluters? Satisfactory solutions are still
being sought. This issue will be of great importance to
Congress, the public, industry, and government.
-- Who should have to prove the safety or hazard of a chemi-
cal? Will the trend toward placing this burden on the
chemical companies place an undue economic burden upon
them and also make them more susceptible to lawsuits?
-- How should the jurisdiction of agencies and courts be
separated and clarified?
-------
-147-
CHAPTER 5
FRONTIERS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Scientific and technological advances are re-
solving old uncertainties about toxic substances
and creating new policy questions. The ability
to detect smaller amounts of chemicals is forcing
us to deal with ever-lower levels of materials
and their effects. As science links environ-
mental conditions, chemicals, human genetics,
and behavior, decisions about any single factor
become questionable. Risk assessment will be
a key to the interpretation of scientific data
and social priorities regarding toxic substances.
A particular issue will be setting acceptable
levels of exposure in different environments
for populations with different risks and dif-
ferent priorities. Understanding the synergism
and antagonism of chemicals will become more
important. Technological advances are occurring
in analytical chemistry, toxicology, environ-
mental transformation of chemicals, epidemiology,
exposure analysis, and metabolic transformation.
Scientific and technological innovations in the
generation and disposal of toxic substances are
also altering regulatory needs. New products
and wastes of particular concern include plas-
tics, composites, telematics-based materials,
ceramics, batteries, photovoltaics, and metals.
Two generic technologies affecting toxic sub-
stances are biotechnology and telematics. The
application of biotechnologies to chemical
manufacture, to waste management, to environ-
mental technologies, and to health therapy,
has a potential for radical change. Telematics
are directly changing both society and industry,
through communication and information manage-
ment, computer control of industry processes,
chemical monitors, expert systems, structural
modeling, and medical applications.
-------
-148-
A. CHEMICALS, MAN, AND ENVIRONMENT: TESTING AND MONITORING
TECHNOLOGIES
. Three complementary factors have enhanced our ability to
detect the effects of environmental factors and influences on
people:
major advances in chemical and physical analytical
technology, including toxicology;
t a greatly improved ability to diagnose clinical abnor-
mality at an early stage and assess individual suscep-
tibilities; and
the development of powerful methods of information collec-
tion, storage, and retrieval. (1)
1
Chemical Analysis, Toxicology and Risk Assessment
Central to the perception and regulation of toxic substances
is the ability to identify, detect, and quantify chemicals in the
environment and in man, and to assess both their toxicity and the
factor of risk they pose to man and environment. Toxicity is an
inherent characteristic of a chemical substance defining the ad-
verse effect on an organism exposed at a given dose level (environ-
mental toxicity broadly measures the effect of a substance on an
ecosystem). The actual hazard posed by a chemical depends on the
likelihood that a chemical will be present at a harmful exposure
level. A chemical can have relatively high inherent toxicity but
can be considered nonhazardous if actual exposure does not result
in a dosage high enough to produce the toxic effect.
Toxicity is but one factor in determining the threat a sub-
stance presents to individuals, to society, and to the environment,.
Exposure can be estimated from production, use, and disposal informa-
tion coupled with understanding of the chemistry of the substance,
its environmental mobility, degradation and transformation products,
metabolic uptake and breakdown. The risk to society from a substance
factors in both its health hazard (including toxicity) and the level
of exposure that can be expected both in numbers of people and
volume of substance. Complicating these general susceptibilities
-------
-149-
are differing reactions to the same exposures and even dosages. Added
on top of this, and perhaps most important of all, is the changing
perception of risk reasonable and acceptable levels of individual
and societal risk and relative acceptability of different sources
and types of risk.
As measurement technology has advanced it has unveiled the
pervasive low-level presence of possibly to.vic substances throughout
the environment and the human population. Unfortunately, under-
standing of the relationship between levels of exposure and levels
of risk, especially in the critical region at our limits of detec-
tion, is not keeping pace with the technological capability to mea-
sure low levels of substances. This may be driving a reorientation
of risk reduction away from the now unattainable goal of zero expo-
sure, zero risk towards minimum exposure, acceptable risk. The dif-
ficulties of balancing the concerns of different sectors of society,
different at-risk groups, and scientifically versus socially signifi-
cant levels of risk is discussed in Chapter 4.B.2 on social trends
in perception of hazard and risk.
Underlying the policy process are fundamental scientific and
technological tools to investigate and describe a chemical substance
and its life cycle interaction with the environment, chemical, physi-
cal, biological, and human, A comprehensive chemical analysis encom-
passes a host of skills and techniques: analytical chemistry, to
identify and characterize a chemical; toxicity testing, to assess
the inherent toxicity of a chemical; exposure analysis, to provide
information about the expected use of and exposure to a substance;
statistics and data processing skills, to translate laboratory and
field data into information useful to policymaking; epidemiology,
to acquire data on human populations to complement laboratory studies;
and medicine and pharmacology, to understand the mechanism of action
of a chemical.
One science to which these tools will be applied in the science
of risk analysis and regulation is toxicology.
-------
-150-
Toxlcology may be applied to a single species, usually man,
or the total environment.
Due to recent regulation, Including TSCA, and heightened pub-
lic and corporate awareness of the Importance of toxlcological
analysis, demand 1s growing rapidly for better, faster, cheaper,
more precise, and more accurate testing and monitoring. A paral-
lel need 1s for sensible and efficient priority-setting for both
research and regulation. New substances enter the market at rates
estimated at from 200 to 1000 annually. (2) Estimates of the num-
ber of chemicals in commerce range from 55,000 to over 75,000, and
many of these have not been tested, or only minimally so; tens of
thousands have unknown production levels. (3) The Chemical Abstracts
Service records over 5 million distinct known chemicals. (4) A Na-
tional Academy of Science committee report on toxicity testing needs
and priorities found in Its study subsample that about 78% of chemi-
cals in commerce (versus pesticides, cosmetics, drugs, and food addi-
tives) did not have even minimal toxicity information available. (5)
Current proposals to focus OTS' effort propose.streamlining
reporting requirements for classes of chemicals of consistently
lowest priority, such as polymers, inorganics, and biologicals,
or those no longer in production. This would be a further step
in priority-setting to allocate testing, analysis, and
decisionmaking resources. (6)
Priority setting issues and trends are discussed in Section B
of this chapter; emerging trends in toxicology protocol standardi-
zation, new methodologies, computer modeling, and study of mixtures
rather than isolated chemicals are discussed below.
Toxlcological analysis, coupled with exposure analysis, epi-
demiology, and analytical chemistry, provides a comprehensive pic-
ture of the hazard of a chemical might pose as it moves through
its life cycle. These analyses provide the foundation for risk
analysis and regulation, shown schematically in Exhibit 22.
-------
-151-
EXHIBIT 22
ANALYSIS OF TOXIC SUBSTANCES
EXPOSURE
ANALYSIS
Source: J.F. Coates, Inc., 1983
Comprehensive testing of a chemical for the purpose of
analysis includes three main phases:
1.. Analytical chemistry of a substance to determine its
physical properties, stability, solubility, and
chemical structure. This information is vital to
exposure analysis, as it determines the most likely
routes of exposure from the chemical standpoint.
2. Analysis of environmental transport, accumulation, and
degradation, in air, water, soil, and biota. Again,
this is key both to charting likely routes of exposure
and to identifying natural detoxification pathways or
unanticipated creation of secondary toxic products.
-------
-152-
3. Toxicity testing to determine the inherent toxicity or
the chemical, linked to a dose or exposure level.. In
this phase classic short-term and chronic toxicity
tests are used. These tests also investigate such
effects as carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, behavioral
toxicity, neurotoxicity, teratogenicity, and ecotox-
icity the adverse effect on biological systems in the
the environment. The specific tests carried out under
this rubric vary with the chemical, route of exposure,
health priorities, and with advancing technology in
testing regimes.
2 Ana 1 y tica 1 Cher.iis try ^Push ing__the_ Linn ts of Sens 1_tiyi ty
The first stage of evaluating a chemical's threat to society
is analytical chemistry. Analytical chemistry techniques provide
the tools for many other specialists ~ in detection and monitoring
of chemicals, in characterization, and in measuring the concentra-
tion and species of chemicals.(7)
The key trend in analytical chemistry is the increasing
sensitivity and specificity of detection. We are approaching
single-molecule detection. The other avenue of significant
progress is computational and instrumental advances that make
possible multidimensional chemical analysis, or "chemical
fingerprints." (8)
Within ten years, sophisticated multi-species analyzers.
should enable chemists to identify the components of complex mix-
tures. The Food and Drug Administration uses .an ICP (inductively
coupled plasma) process which can scan for nearly all elements of
the periodic table in a single sample, (9) This level of complexity
is arriving more slowly with organic chemicals; since there are at
least five million chemical entities identified, and minute differ-
ences between them in one sample may later be vital to assessing
toxicity, the problem is vastly more difficult than with elements
such as metals. However, the technology is now being developed to
look for several organic compounds simultaneously. (10)
-------
-153-
Pesticide chemists, who in their research must look at an
entire family of compounds being applied to the land or water,
have often led the way in developing techniques for looking at
mixtures of organic compounds.
Telematics have revolutionized analytical chemistry; a com-
puter can record and process and link data that would have taken
20 chemists to do ten years ago. However, the computer processing
is still limited by detector technology, which is lagging. (11)
The accuracy of analytical chemistry in support of regulation
is limited by the inaccuracies inherent in interlaboratory analytical
variables and the limitations of reliability near highly sensitive
detection levels, (12)
An evaluation by the Association of Official Analytical Chemists
(AOAC) of the reproducibility of results from standardized and
analytical procedures, revealed substantial disparity between labs.
The interlaboratory coefficient of variation obtained in
collaborative studies increased with decreasing concentration of
chemical as follows:
At 1000 ppm, o% variation;
at 1 ppm, 16% variation; and
at 0.001 ppm (1 ppb), 60% variation. (13)
The Centers for Disease Control have set the acceptable safe
level of human exposure to dioxin at 1 ppb. (14) The coefficient
of variation within a single analytical chemist.rv laboratory was
from 1/4 to 2/3 of that between laboratories. (15)
Some problems of analytical testing beyond measurement
inaccuracy are "inadequate baseline data, mounting administrative
costs, a projected shortage of analytical chemists, gaps in
research, slowness of technology transfer, and adversarial relation-
ships among organizations." (16)
A 1973 American Chemical Society report identified the over-
riding problem in toxicology to be an increasing gap belwcen the
exploding work load and the availability of qualified scientists
-------
-154-
and technicians. (17) Of special concern is striking the approp-
riate balance between satisfying the demand for increased testing
and maintaining the quality and reliability of chemical analysis.
Two organizations that have been especially active in collabora-
tive testing and verification are the American Society for Testing
and Materials (ASTM) and the Association of Official Analytical
Chemists (AOAC). The National Bureau of Standards has provided
a vital function by developing and distributing Standard Reference
Materials. (18) Communication, collaboration, oversight, and
standardization will all be increasingly critical in the future to
assure the continued quality of analytical chemistry and toxi-
cology, and to ensure the use of the best possible technical
foundation in regulatory decision making,
3. Toxicity Testing
The need for faster and cheaper toxicological regimes is
pushing the state-of-the-art and could significantly enhance the
availability and use of toxicological screening for the home and
the Fortune 500 companies.
Standard bioassay techniques, using up to 800 animals for a
single test, are often costly and time-consuming. One industry
source estimated that comprehensive toxicity testing for a single
potential product could cost $4 to $5 million. (16) A chart of
effort for standard toxicity tests performed at Dow Chemical's
Toxicology Research Laboratory is shown in Exhibit 23.
According to a 1983 Office of Technology Assessment study, only
about half of pre-manufacturing notices (PMNs) report any toxicity
data, although the percentage rises slightly (to about 60%) if
polymers, generally accepted as non-toxic, are excluded. (20) The
study found the most frequently reported information was acute
oral toxicity (in 50% of PMNs for manufactured chemicals and in 43%
of all PMNs). It also noted "mutagenicity tests, the only tests
that bear on chronic toxicity, were reported on less than one-fifth
(17%) of all PMNs." (21)
-------
-155-
EXHIBIT 23
TOXICITY TEST EFFORT
Source: Dot* Chemical, who Protects
Our Health and Environment? 1980. p. 10
A National Research Council (NRC) study went a step further to
investigate the quality of toxicity testing as measured against
currently accepted reference protocols. Examining the design and
results of 664 toxicity tests on a subsample of 100 substances
representing pesticides, cosmetics, drugs, food additives, and
chemicals in commerce, the NRC committee found
"...only 8% of the tests in the subsample met the stan-
dards of the reference protocol guidelines and another
19% of the tests performed were judged to be adequate
by the committee's standards...The quality of design,
execution, and reporting of toxicity studies was not
uniform among the various types of experiments....In gen-
eral, chronic studies, inhalation studies, and more com-
plex studies with specific end points (e.ga, hemotoxicity,
genetic toxicity, and effects on the conceptus) are most
frequently needed." (22)
Exhibit 24 presents the NRC rating of test quality.
-------
EXHIBIT 24
QUALITY RATINGS OF TOXICITY TESTS DONE ON 100 SUBSTANCES:
A NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STUDY
Subsample Cateaory and Proportion
of Tests with Indicated Rating (%) *
Drugs and
Pesticides Excipients
and Inert Cosmetic in Drug Food Chemicals
Ingredi ents Ingredients Formulations Additives in Commerce
Meets current
guidelines 10 6 849
Adequate, but does
not meet guidelines
Not adequate, but
retesting not
needed
Inadequate and re-
testing needed
Adequacy cannot
be judged
TOTAL
22
32
17
18
20
38
31
19
27
16
30
10
31
31
24
20
21
34
17
PROPORTION
OF TESTS
IN WHOLE
SUBSAMPLE
19
29
26
19
en
i
100 (164 100 (98 100 (106
tests) tests) tests)
100 (126 100 (170 100 (664
tests) tests) tests)
Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
SOURCE: National Research Council, Toxicity Testi mj: Strateqi es to Determjne Needs and Priorities.
D.C. National Academy Press, 1984, p. 94.
-------
-157-
New methodologies which employ cultured cells rather than
batteries of lab animals are enabling toxicologists to examine the
specific effect of a chemical.at the cellular or molecular level.
Such cellular regimes are attractive for several reasons:
cultured human cells, or DNA, can be used where human subjects
could not, giving data on human toxicity and avoiding question-
able extrapolation from animal to human; maintenance and screening
is much cheaper and faster for cell cultures than for lab animals;
and the technique provides insight into the actual molecular
mechanisms of toxicity (which might provide means of mitigating
toxicity within the body after exposure).
~ At the cooperative Chemical Industry Institute of Toxi-
cology one line of research systematically compares the
mutagenic effects of chemicals directly on human DNA
sequences. Results suggest that chemicals carry distinc-
tive mutagenic fingerprints; whether generalizable to
all mechanisms of toxicity or not, this raises the pos-
sibility of directly tracing a culprit chemical to a
region or producer from observed toxic effects. (23)
-- A National Research Council committee recommended in a
report to EPA that cell tests be used for most mutagen
screening, with animal bioassays being used only if
cell results are ambiguous. (24)
In addition, an array of promising regimes are being developed --
in insects, amphibians, simple animals such as the hydra. Such
techniques compromise between the desirability of in vitro testing
in a complex organism (preferably as much like man in its response
as possible) and the economic necessity of reducing testing costs
and time. (25) ;
4. Telematics-Based Technologies
Structure Activity Relationships
Extensive research is going into modeling structure activity
relationships (SAR), which link biological activity to chemical
structure. Using SAR rules, a new chemical might be compared to
-------
-158-
structural analogs, assigned a priority for testing based on the
observed toxicity of its analogs and assessed for toxicity poten-
tial. As existing testing resources -- time, money, and lab
space -- are woefully inadequate to deal with even the chemicals
currently in commerce, reliable SAR algorithms could be invaluable.
Structure-activity relationships (SAR) are already being used
informally in priority setting for testing and regulation for
chemicals.
Benzene was under suspicion for excess risk of leukemia,
long before the analytic verification of this, because of
its capabilities of depressing the bone marrow and causing
chromosomal abnormalities in a manner similar to known
leukemogenic agents. The rapid acceptance of the carcin-
ogenicity of the drug Chlornaphzine and its consequent
withdrawal from use based on only a few case reports of
bladder cancer was due largely to the recognition that the
drug was a structural derivative of betanapthylamine, a
potent bladder carcinogen among occupationally exposed
workers. (26)
Further in the future, SAR may significantly displace analyti-
cal chemistry and toxicity testing, both to assess the inherent
toxicity of chemicals and rank them for regulation or further
testing. Fast-paced advances in computer expert systems, graphics
capability, pattern recognition, and comprehensive database manage-
ment will accelerate the implementation of SAR as a low-cost, fast
method of analyzing the potential health effects and environmental
fate of new chemicals. -
The effective and reliable use of SAR relies critically upon
the very costly accumulation of a comprehensive database of known
correlations between chemical structures and biological effects,
especially toxicity. Once this supporting database is established,
generalized rules can be inferred -- such as the predictable unit
of toxicity associated with a phenol group or polyhalogenation --
on the genetic, behavioral, mutagenic, carcinogenic, reproductive,
neurotoxic, and other toxic effects.
-------
-159-
tnosensors
In vivo biosensors are being developed to monitor -- and in
many cases control -- the serum levels of glucose, antibodies against
specific disease, albumin, urea, viruses, reproductive hormones,
cancer-linked proteins, and pH and carbon dioxide. (27) Based on
a blend of new techniques - immunological, electronic, biomaterials,
membrane, enzyme - these biosensors can be as small as a few milli-
meters square. Such sophisticated technology could in the near
future be adapted to monitor the biological presence of toxic
substances or their degradation products, providing personal,
portable toxicological screens. Miniature computerized biosensors
could monitor metabolic processes and help control vital body
functions such as heartbeat, ovulation, or fetal development.
Further down the road biosensors might be equipped to automatically
dispense neutralizing or therapeutic agents.
5. Chemical Mixtures: Synergy and Antagonism
Toxicology of chemicals acting in combination rather than in,
isolation present a major avenue of research for the future. As
primary toxins are gradually controlled, the more subtle effects
of mixtures will be revealed. (28)
Chemicals are transformed as they move through the environ-
ment or through an organism's biochemistry; the same chemical
released under different conditions or in association with different
mixtures of chemicals presents correspondingly different toxico-
logical problems. Most current techniques examine only a single
chemical at a time and consequently cannot pick up any synergistic
or antagonistic interaction of chemicals.
Interacting synergistically within the body, certain organic
phosphate pesticides and chlorinated hydrocarbons together generate
ten times the health risk they would separately. (The chlorinated
hydrocarbons interfere with the action of cholinesterase in the
liver, leaving nerve tissue especially susceptible to damage from
the phosphates.) (29)
-------
-160-
Often the enideiniological and analytical tools are not fine-
grained enough to distinguish between additive and multiplicative
models of chemical interaction. However, the distinction may become
vital in future controversies over compensation and liability for
risk.
Carcinogens are generally classed as initiators or as promoters
which seem to precipitate potential tumors once they have been
initiated. Carcinogenesis is considered to be the result of a
complex interaction between initiator and promoter, and between
genetic, chemical, and environmental factors. (30) Both testing
and regulation will have to cope with this increasing awareness of
chemical mixtures, rather than individual chemicals, as toxic
substances.
6. Institutions
Private contract labs are likely to remain the dominant
providers of toxicity testing as the demand for testing rises.
Although significant reliability problems ranging from poor
quality control to outright fraud have been revealed by recent
investigations (the most noteworthy being the 1983 exposure of
Industrial Bio-Test Laboratories), oversight mechanisms are
responding. Examples include the Toxicology Laboratory Accreditation
Board or T-Labs sponsored by the Society of Toxicology, FDA's
Good Laboratory Practices program, and the Chemical Industry
Institute of Toxicology efforts in "testing the tests." (31)
In-house industry testing is not likely to extend much beyond
the needs created by regulation, primarily for economic reasons.
Toxicity testing in other developed countries is generally on a
par with the U.S.; OECD standards set the pace for many proto-
cols. (32) Increasing international standardization should
discourage duplication of efforts and allow use of foreign data
to fulfill U.S. regulatory requirements.
-------
-161-
7. Epidemiology
Epidemiology, the study of the distribution and determinants
of disease frequency in human populations, provides another
building block of the scientific assessment for risk of disease
due to exposure to health hazards. Identification of the observed
distribution of a disease in a population is referred to as des-
criptive epidemiology. (A classic example of descriptive epidem-
iology observations leading to hypothesis about the cause of disease
is the 1854 study by John Snow. Snow observed that the death rates
from cholera in London were five times higher in districts which were
supplied drinking water by the Southwark and Vauxhall water company
than in districts supplied by the Lambeth water company. This ob-
servation eventually led to the identification of sewage-contaminated
drinking water as the major cause of cholera.) (33) While descrip-
tive epidemiology is useful in generating hypotheses and establish-
ing correlations, it is rarely useful in verifying a cause-and-
effect relationship between a particular exposure and a specific
disease. Descriptive epidemiology must be supported by analytical
epidemiology, designed to identify the determinants of disease and
oriented towards specific groups of interest, often a population at
high risk.
Epidemiology is a coarse science. Because of the number of
variables involved -- genetic and biochemical differences, length,
timing, and route of exposure, latency period, subgroups at high
risk, interacting factors -- it is essentially a reactive science.
The now well-established link between estrogens and human cancers
was not shown until 1971, when a specific group of young girls who
had been exposed to diethylstilbesterol (DES) in utero developed
vaginal adenocarcinoma with latencies of 14 to 22 years. (34)
The strengths of epidemiology are three-fold. (35) First,
it allows direct measurement of risk of disease in a human population
rather than laboratory animals. Secondly, it can provide insight
into the mechanisms of a disease.
-------
-162-
For instance, epiderniological studies of kidney transfer
patients who had received immunosuppressive drugs helped destroy
the concept of immunologic surveillance as a cancer control mech-
anism. Epidemiology also revealed that leukemia is associated with
an inherited disease involving high chromosome fragility, leading
to subsequently-verified inferences that a primary step in leukemia
is chromosome breakage. (36)
The third strength is the ability to extrapolate epidemio-
logic information to predict human health hazards at low levels of
exposure that cannot be studied directly.
There are also major weaknesses to epidemiology. Most import-
ant is the latent period between exposure to a cause of a disease and
the actual manifestation, of the disease itself. For most chronic
diseases these latent periods are quite long, from 5 years to over
50 years. Secondly, epidemiology does poorly at tracking down
the causes of very low levels of risk. The lowest excess cancer
risk that is directly observable in a group of exposed individuals
and is generally accepted as being specifically due to that factor is
the 30% excess risk of childhood leukemia among children who were
exposed to radiation in utero in the last trimester of pregnancy. (37)
" »«
It becomes next to impossible to say with any certainty that a
very low level of risk is caused by a similarly low level of
exposure to a single substance. This is partly due to another
weakness of epidemiology, its inherent inability to isolate a
single toxic substance, or control the unknown risk factors for
the disease in question. One general health effect, such as a rise
in lung cancer., may mask several different exposures or causes.
Detailed, long-term information about individual exposures to speci-
fied substances and environments could significantly improve and
focus epidemiological studies of actual exposure, this would likely
entail significantly stepped-up information gathering.
-------
-163-
Dozens of Federal and state databases with extensive informa-
tion on health, occupation, lifestyle, industry, chemicals, etc.
already exist. The volume of data creates no big-technical bar-
riers, but accessibility and comparability of data could. Data
is often compiled according to political boundaries, but would in
many cases be more appropriate for toxics investigation by environ-
mental boundaries, such as airsheds, watersheds, or aquifiers. Or,
the information needed may not be available for large groups of
people or over a long period of time, factors critical to epidemio-
logical work on low levels of risk.
Privacy issues are a potentially major concern, although on-
going epidemiological monitoring has not run into any big diffi-
culties or public protests; for example, the Centers for Disease
Control Birth Defects Monitoring Program receives regular reports
from 1200 hospitals and health care centers across the nation,
encompassing one-third of U.S. births. (38) However, industries,
health care institutions, and other groups may raise restrictive
barriers for fear of liability or privacy suits. Technical and
public attention to these issues is mandatory if epidemiologic in-
formation is to realize an important role in the identification and
quantification of health hazards in the future.
Epidemiological Techniques
Some of the important new techniques of epidemiology are
study of sentinel diseases, low-cost retrospective studies, metabo-
lic or biochemical epidemiology, evaluation of special risk groups,
and identification of specific exposure monitors. (39)
Sentinel diseases can act as very sensitive indicators of
general, low-level environmental hazard. Of particular concern
are reproductive problems, including congenital defects, spontan-
eous abortion, and infertility, which in the population at highest
risk may act as sentinel diseases and warn of health hazards for
the general population.
-------
-164-
Retrospective case control epidemiology uses data and samples
stored from past studies to examine new questions. (40)
Biochemical or metabolic epidemiology focuses on specific
tissue dosages:and effects which result from more general environ-
mental exposureSo These may reveal biochemical changes long before
the development of external symptoms, providing an early warning
system.
The study of special risk groups also can help focus on the
actual levels of risk by revealing a much more sensitive response
to a substance. For example, a study of saccharin and bladder
cancer used a population of nonsmoking women, a group with a much
lower risk of bladder cancer than the general population. Iden-
tifying special risk groups may also provide unique opportunities
to evaluate disease promoters and cofactors that require a sub-
population that has already been exposed to a disease risk
factor.
Studies of exposure indicators can reveal chemical means of
monitoring past exposure. Analytical chemistry techniques allow
assessment of the probability and magnitude of past exposure to
certain substances by evaluating the persistence of these sub-
stances or their degradation products in body tissues. Recent
studies have indicated the value of assessing chromosomal abnor-
malities in circulating lymphocytes as an index of previous
exposure to ionizing radiation, and have held out the possibility
that such assays may be an accurate indicator of past exposure to
mutagens in general. (41)
3. Environmental Technology
Environmental technologies -- sampling, monitoring, pollution
control, and cleanup -- are rapidly becoming more sophisticated
with next-generation analytical tools and the advent of new tele-
matics and biology-based technologies. These new technologies
are increasing awareness of the presence and fate of chemicals in
the environment, but understanding and policy are lagging behind.
-------
-165-
We can achieve a new scale of integration with satellite and com-
puter technologies; investigate new places with temperature- and
corrosion-resistant equipment; reach new detail with highly sensi-
tive detectors; and track new compounds with qualitatively different,
biochemistry-based detectors.
The .outstanding trend is increasing sensitivity to chemical
agents in all environmental media. Dioxin can be detected at the
level of a few parts per quadrillion; the effects of organic contamina-
tion at that level is unknown, however. (42) This sensitivity is
revealing the pervasiveness of chemical contamination in the environ-
ment, heightening the need for understanding of dose-response
relationships and for consistent policy on limiting chemical release
and managing contamination.
Many more chemicals can vbe detected than can be identified;
only 9-145{ (by weight) of compounds detected in a 19UO EPA
National Organics Reconnaissance Survey were actually characterized. (43)
Even more troublesome is the widening gap between the ability
to detect chemicals at extremely low levels and the ability to
understand the health and environmental implications of chemicals
at such concentrations. This gap is likely to exacerbate the con-
flict over limits of acceptability for release and control of
chemicals in the environment.
The technologies sufficient for portable, comprehensive,
personal monitors are now being developed. (44) As waste contain-
ment procedures are upgraded, and as point-source pollution control
is fully deployed, the contribution of minor contaminants and
small-scale, overlooked wastes to the total environmental load
will grow. As government assurances of safety are shown to be
misleading in the light of better data, individuals may turn to
personal or community-sponsored monitoring systems. This in turn
is likely to increase the awareness, concern, and activism of
citizens on the quality of their personal environment and contamina-
tion of water, air, and built environment.
-------
-166-
Remote sensing and computer modeling technologies are becoming
more and more vital to identifying and tracking environmental con-
taminants, especially as awareness of transnational transport of
chemicals grows. International data is becoming important to the
complete modeling of the environment and of chemical transport.
Satellite observation in some cases can provide unique tracking of the
conditions in an airshed or watershed following a chemical spill or
from a chronic source. (45) Fingerprints of air masses measure air-
borne concentrations of chemicals, matching them with known chemical
profiles characteristic of a specific geographic area. Once finger-
printed, the air masses can be traced as they move across the country,
through the atmosphere.
Fiberoptic sensing and robotics are providing means to analyze
chemical processes-inside such previously inaccessible places as
radioactive or highly toxic waste disposal sites or in extremely
hot or corrosive process streams. (46)
Biotechnology holds great promise for detecting and neutraliz-
ing potentially toxic chemicals, especially in waste treatment and
drinking water quality control. The potential of biotechnology
is such that, in theory, any organic contaminant can be altered or
degraded by a naturally occurring or an engineered enzyme system.
-- Some microorganisms produce enzymes which polymerize and
effectively neutralize some organic compounds, precursors
to carcinogens, which now cannot be removed from drinking
water. (47)
Development of genetically engineered microorganisms for toxic
waste treatment could be hastened by natural mutation among micro-
organisms extensively exposed to toxic substances. While the
detoxification capability of the microorganisms might be enhanced,
the possibility that undesirable but hardy microorganisms resistant
to all sorts of toxic compounds might arise cannot be overlooked.
As biological systems evolved in an aqueous environment,
biotechnology-based monitoring and cleanup is especially suited
-------
-167-
to dealing with groundwater contamination and industrial waste-
water treatment. However, as with all pollution control systems,
biology-based technologies will themselves present a new waste
disposal problem.
In the future it is likely that more emphasis will be placed
on gathering extensive information about the transport and trans-
formation of chemicals in the environment. (48) Much of this data
can be predicted from laboratory analysis, and computer modeling
and expert systems are likely to play an increased role. How-
ever, priorities for research must be set, as it is far beyond our
capability or knowledge to continually and thoroughly inventory
the environment for all chemicals present.
-------
-168-
B. PRIORITY SETTING: THE IMPLICATIONS OF INCREASED INFORMATION
AND LIMITED RESOURCES
1. Defining Hazard
Quantifying the inherent toxicity of a substance is often less
important than estimating the actual hazard it poses to individuals
and society. Overall, hazard to society increases with:
t the number of people exposed,
0 the individual exposure levels in that population and
exposure among particularly susceptible groups,
the route, frequency, and duration of exposure,
the likelihood of a toxic response at that exposure
level,
the severity of that potential toxic response,
the costs to society of compensating for and treating
health effects. (49)
This coarse definition of hazard has several shortcomings. It
averages the hazard over the entire population at risk, downplaying
the variation in response between outlying individuals at highest
and lowest risk. An averaged level of individual exposure in, say,
a certain occupational environment, does not reflect the poten-
tially wide differences in actual individual exposures; a few
meters might make all the difference between a lethal and a harm-
less level of exposure. Similarly, "safe" levels of exposure might
vary as much as an order of magnitude among individuals, due to
individual genetic variability. (50)
Future regulation will need to reflect changing perceptions of
risk, broadening the question from health hazards to include the
societal costs and opportunities in terms of economics and life-
style. Under TSCA the Congress charges EPA with avoiding "unreason-
able risk" to society from toxic substances leaving the determina-
tion of unreasonable to EPA. EPA incorporates four factors into its
definition of unreasonable risk under TSCA:
-------
-169-
1. The toxicity of the chemical;
2. Anticipated exposure from use of the chemical;
3. The availability of substitute materials; and
4. The costs of regulatory control measures.
(See Chapter 4.B.2 for a related overview of trends 1n perception
of hazard and risk.)
2. The Need to Set Priorities
Priorities will have to be set. With limited time, money,
manpower, facilities, and equipment, and the need to not unduly
delay the commercialization of products, a ranking system must be
established for consideration of chemicals to be tested, for actual
testing, and for regulation. Even at the current level of testing,
costs are high:
-- The annual cost of analytical testing in the U.S. was
estimated to be about $50 billion in 1982. (51)
The average chemical company spends about $1.7 million
per year specifically on toxicity testing according to
a 1981 survey conducted for the CMA (112 companies varying
in size responding to the survey together represented just
over half of the chemical industry in terms of sales
volume and employment.). (52)
Exhibit 25 shows a preliminary scheme for setting testing
priorities which incorporates known correlations of structure and
toxic effect, exposure estimates, relative concern over different
classes of toxic effects, the costs of possible mistakes or mis-
classifications, as well as the goal of cost-effectiveness.
Most priority-setting mechanisms divide ranking criteria
into two classes of environmental and human effects: biological
activity, Including toxicity, and exposure potential, Including
production volume and occupational exposure. Ross and Lu (53)
proposed an exemplary two-phase scoring system to screen chemicals
for TSCA evaluation. Exhibit 26 shows a list of their scoring
factors (25 1n all, in 10 categories) to rank chemicals for
priority testing. A 1979 Interagency Testing Committee workshop
to review their priority-setting system similarly divided scoring
into potential exposure and biological effects, but did not
generate a detailed new scheme. (54)
-------
-170-
EXKIBIT 25
PROCESS FOR SETTING TESTING PRIORITIES
Select
aaivcrie of
70,000 aubitancei
si/ ~
State 1
Cautoaated
crcco)
( <$20/iubitance)
Doreant
li.t
(-10.000
ubitancei)
Recyle list
C^AO.OOO
ubatancea)
_V
Medium-high
priority
(thouiaadi)
Medium-concern
lift
(thousand*)
Long-
li.t
« lect ion
procei*
Stage 2
>
, S
Doraant
lilt
(thouiandi)
f
I
^*(««^$80/iubitance)
V
RTF teat
ooainationi
(-%200/yr)
f
Recycle
liitd)
(thouiandi)
r
Agency
aominationi
(^300/yr)
_3t_
Stage 3
\r
(v tl,JOO/iubit«nce)
Dormant
lilt
(hundred*)
Tettiog
rccommenditioni
(core* or hundred*)
Short-lilt
election
procei a
Remit!
added to
d*Cf biiei
>
Stage A
(toxieity
tcitinf)
^
s
Further
teit
recosznrnd*cion*
(^ tlO,000-t500,000/«ubit*nce)
Source: National Research Council,
Strategies to Determine Needs and
Priorities for Toxicity Testing,
Volume 2;
D.C: National
p.. 22.
Development, WasTnngton,
Academy Press, 1982,
-------
-171-
EXHIBIT 26
PROPOSED SCORING FACTORS FOR EPA EVALUATION OF
PRIORITY CHEMICALS UNDER TSCA
(Ross and Lu, 1981)
PHASE I: BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
1. Oncogenicity
2. Mutagenicity
3. Embryotoxicity and fetotoxicity
4. Reproductive effects for terrestrial animals
5. Chronic toxicity
in terrestrial animals
in aquatic animals
in plants, fungi, and bacteria
6. Acute toxicity
in terrestrial animals
in aquatic animals
in plants, fungi, and bacteria
PHASE II: EXPOSURE POTENTIAL
7. Production volume
8. Environmental exposure
-- environmental transport and transformation
bi concentration
environmental release
quantity processed
quantity in products
9, Occupational exposure
number of workers potentially exposed
-- quantity of chemical manufactured and processed
number of total worker hours
quantity of chemical used in industrial products
level of potential occupational exposure
10. Consumer exposure
-- number of consumers potentially exposed
frequency of consumer exposure
intensity of consumer exposure
Source: Robert H0 Ross and Paul Lu,
Chemical Scoring System Development,
work sponsored by the Assessment Divi-
sion, Office of Pesticides and Toxic
Substances, EPA, Draft, June 1981, p.5,
I
-------
-172-
Ross and Lu also acknowledged the important role of subjec-
tive professional judgment in interpreting uneven and limited data
and reconciling tests and information of species and sources, from
various protocols. Despite the need for explicit, socially and
scientifically accountable rules for priority setting, expert
judgment will remain a key in establishing priorities for testing
as well as in application of test results to risk analysis and
.regulation.
3. New Health Concerns
The changing population profile will be one driver of new
priorities; the most outstanding of these will likely be the
effects of chemicals on aging and on reproduction. Diagnoses of
subtle behavioral and mental problems will also fuel increasing
concern. Public concern over chronic and genetic risks is in-
creasing the need for test regimes which reveal the implications
of long-term chemical exposure. Carcinogenicity and mutagenicity
tend to factor more heavily into perceived risk than do systemic
or potentially reversible effects such as pulmonary disease., (55)
Under TSCA, priority attention is to be paid to substances known
or thought to cause or contribute to cancer, birth defects, or
gene mutations. As more is learned about behavioral toxicity,
neurotoxicity, and immunotoxicity, their significance in deter-
mining overall toxicity of a chemical is likely to increase.
Exhibit 27 shows one possible means of ranking different
health effects according to the relative public concern they
evoke0 It ranks irreversible effects worse than reversible ones,
and dread and life-threatening effects worse than structural
or functional ones. The purpose of such a ranking system would
be to give decisionmakers some sense of priorities when allocat-
ing resources, time, and money to chemical testing and analysis.
Aging
The maturing baby boom generation will eventually be older
workers and older decisionmakers who have a vested interest in the
-------
-173-
EXHIBIT 27
A POSSIBLE RANKING OF SPECIFIC CHEMICALLY-INDUCED
HEALTH EFFECTS IN HUMANS
Effect
Score
Carcinogenesis, somatic and germ cell mutagenesis, liver
necrosis, uremia, bone marrow depression, embryotoxicity,
fetotoxicity, mucous membrane corrosion
Pulmonary fibrosis, pneumoconiosis, teratogenesis,
aplastic anemia, immune suppression
Osteoporosis, convulsions, asphyxiation
Narcosis, permanent skin damage
Skin and eye corrosion, peripheral neuropathy,
corneal opacity, retinal damage
Pulmonary and skin sensitization, cholestasis,
mixed-function oxidase induction, methemoglobinemia,
behavioral changes, infertility, lithiasis
Skin, eye, pulmonary, and mucous membrane irritation;
depression of the central nervous system, fume
fever, cholinesterase inhibition
6
5
4
The ranking is based on a scoring system that ranks irreversible
effects worse than reversible ones, and life-threatening effects
worse than structural or functional ones. This reflects a
difference in public perception of severity of effects. This
ranking is a "crude approximation."
Source: National Research Council,
Strategies to Determine Needs and
Priorities for Toxicity Testing,
Volume 2; Development, Washington,
D.C: National Academy Press, 1982,
p. 37.
-------
-174-
particular toxic susceptibilities of the aged. Exposure profiles
will change as more people work and are active in their later
years.
Differing susceptibility to toxic effects is a firmly estab-
lished characteristic of age. (56) Aging is associated, for
instance, with generally decreased ability to resist mutagens via
natural DNA repair mechanisms. Current research into the biology
of aging may reveal substances which hasten or delay the aging
process, perhaps creating a new descriptor of toxicity: geronto-
genesis.
Birth Defects
A combination of social, medical, and economic factors are
increasing the concern over the causes and occurrence of birth
defects. As more women enter the workforce, as mothers delay
childbearing, and as more is learned about effects of chemicals on
pre- and post-natal development, reproduction teratology will gain
in significance.
Over 15 million Americans suffer from one or more types
of birth defects, 80% of which are thought to be caused
by heritable genetic factors.
Fifty percent of all miscarriages and at least 40% of all
infant deaths are attributed to genetic factors.
Nearly 3,000 genetic diseases have already been identi-
fied and catalogued.
The life-years lost to these diseases are estimated to be
six and a half times as many as those lost to heart
disease. (57)
These are essentially all due to genetic factors present in
the population. However, environmental factors and mutagens, in
particular, may exacerbate birth defects or cause non-heritable
ones of their own.
We have limited knowledge of the natural base rate of muta-
tions in humans and the cumulative effects of various mutagens in
the environment. Mutation is essential to the survival of a
species, allowing for flexibility and adaptation while being
overwhelmingly harmful or deadly to most individuals.
-------
-175-
In most cases, the relative contributors of "natural" back-
ground mutation and mutation caused by anthropogenic factors cannot
be distinguished.
"The bottom line in all of this discussion is that
we have a substantial amount of evidence to believe
that cancer is like almost every other human disease
we know of that is, it is due to the exposure of
a susceptible individual to a specific environmental
agent. Therefore, it is probably reasonable to
contend that close to 100 percent of human cancers
are environmentally induced and at the same time
that close to 100 percent of human cancers are
influenced by host factors." (58)
Scientific studies on changing rates of birth defects are
conflicting; most point toward a significant increase in reported
birth defects. However, they disagree as to whether this repre-
sents an increased susceptibility to birth defects or merely the
heightened medical and public awareness. Rising public sensi-
tivity to physical and behavioral abnormalities may be a signifi-
cant factor, so that mild afflictions that might previously have
gone unnoticed are now linked to genetic abnormalities. Data from
a National Health Interview Survey show a 15% increase in the
number of American school children enrolled in some form of special
education since 1975. (59) It is not clear whether this number
represents a real increase in need, increased resources for special
education, or a lowered threshold of concern.
Improved medical care, especially oeonatal intensive care,
health care and nutrition during pregnancy, and fetal monitoring
and screening, is improving the general health of both mother and
child and perhaps reducing susceptibility to genetic or environ-
mental sources of birth defects. However, the significantly
increased survival rate of premature and underweight babies, more
likely to have birth defects, partly counteracts this. Environ-
mental factors, both natural and anthropogenic, have been linked
to birth defects. Increasing amounts of toxic substances in the
workplace, cigarette smoking, and viruses and bacteria all have
-------
-176-
been linked to birth defects. The importance of these factors in
causing birth defects is unknown.
A study of 10,000 babies conducted by Johns Hopkins Univer-
sity indicated that these factors cancelled each other out.- (60)
All agree that public sensitivity to birth defects is on the
rise. This concern will translate into increased political pres-
sure to identify and eliminate the causes of birth defects, with
an emphasis on man-made causes -- such as toxic substances.
4. Exposure, Environment, and Risk: New Sources of Concern
Better data collection and processing for state-of-the-
environment assessment are needed on:
the natural or existing background levels of chemicals,
especially in geographical areas subject to future
development;
the types and concentrations of chemicals normally
present in the human body; and
the effects of environmental chemicals and associated
stimuli (such as vibration, noise, heat) on the human
body.
Natural Versus Man-Made Hazards
Differing perceptions of natural vs. man-made toxic agents
will shape the thrust of research and regulation on toxic sub-
stances. Advances in biochemistry and environmental science are
likely to uncover more and more "natural" toxins which will have to
be incorporated into toxicology testing regimes and risk assessment.
Naturally occurring toxins include estrogen, which apparently is a
significant contributor to breast cancer, and the alkaloid solanine,
a neurotoxin found in sub-toxic concentrations in potatoes. (61)
Pervasive Environmental Contaminants
As waste management handling improves and point-source con-
tamination from waste sites decreases, toxic contamination from
accidents and non-point sources will rise in relative importance.
On a broader level, this anticipated shift in emphasis from
point to non-point sources of environmental contamination may be
expected to broaden the scope of regulation of industrial chemi-
-------
-177-
cals to include lower-level, more dispersed exposure from by-
products, consumer use, inert ingredients, contaminants of
products, etc. (62)
Non-industrial sources of toxic substances, such as the
generation of polycyclic organic matter from residential wood
burning, will be a growing contributor, relatively, to the total
toxic load on the environment. These more dispersed sources will
be more difficult and costly to monitor, control, and regulate.
Indoor Air Pollution
The movement to energy conservation is likely to result in
better insulation and lower rates of turnover of air inside struc-
tures. One consequence of that is an increase in indoor pollu-
tants, including carbon monoxide, from domestic toxic materials.
Especially troublesome sources are: gas stoves and other appli-
ances, kerosene heaters, wood stoves and fireplaces, cigarette
smoke, and formaldehyde insulation. Radon from rock, sand, and
concrete used in construction is a recognized problem. Recent re-
search indicates health problems resulting from inhaling sodium
dodecyl sulfate, an anionic detergent used in carpet shampoos. (63)
C. TRENDS IN MATERIALS AND PRODUCTS
The end use of most chemicals is products and materials. New
materials result from improvement or replacement of existing mate-
rials (as plastics replace wood in construction) or from new
markets which require new sorts of products and materials (such as
the semiconductor industry).
Overarching trends in materials science, reflecting a new
emphasis on optimizing use, are towards:
substitution, especially of non-metals for metals;
increased durability;
t improved cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency;
minimal environmental and health hazards; and
maximum recycling potential.
-------
-178-
Interest in conservation has also spurred research in surface
science and in synthetic materials which combine abundant elements
(such as silicon and carbon) to replace limited or non-renewable
materials such as metals.
Materials are increasing in complexity. This will alter the
product mix of the chemical industry and could increase the like-
lihood of toxic hazard from use, exposure to, combustion, or dis-
posal of such complex materials.
Specific materials science innovations are highlighted below
under the headings metals and alloys, polymers (plastics and
rubbers), ceramics, composites, telematics-related materials, and
energy-related materials. Trends in biomedical materials and bio-
technology-engendered materials are discussed in other sections of
this paper.
1. Metals and Alloys
Process improvements in manufacturing are enabling metallur-
gists to alter the microscopic structures of metals and alloys.
Rapid solidification produces amorphous glassy metals with high
heat and corrosion resistance and good paramagnetic qualities.
These materials are the foundation of many performance advances in
the aerospace industry and will probably find application in pol-
lution control technology. (64)
2. Surface Science and Catalysis
Corrosion is the source of unwanted deterioration and failure
of materials. Surface science priorities include reducing corro-
sion in all materials and minimizing waste of resources and energy.
-- New coatings are combining lubrication with corrosion
resistance.
-- Lasers are being increasingly turned to surface modifi-
cation through precise, metal-thrifty cladding, alloying,
hardening, and melting.
-- Ion beams can lay down coatings 1000 times thinner than
traditional platings. Ion implantation creates thin
layers of corrosion-resistant surface alloys. (65)
-------
-179-
TRENDS IN U.S. CONSUMPTION OF PLASTICS AND KEY METALS. 1960-1985
Source: The Center for Integratlve Studies, Facts and Trends,
1979. p. 18.
3. Polymers, Plastics, and Synthetic Rubbers
Plastics are rapidly replacing metals in many applications;
the biggest markets are packaging, housing, construction, and
transportation. (66) EXHIBIT 28
The first high-volume
plastic-bodied car, the
1984 Pontiac Fiero, con-
tains 300 pounds of plas-
tics, twice the typical
amount. (67) Process
improvements are increas-
ing the energy-efficiency
of plastics and hastening
their use. Plastics and
synthetic rubbers are
direct petrochemical products; research into coal-based polymers
is just beginning. As overseas competition in basic plastics
like polystyrene grows, the U.S. is switching to specialty
products. (68)
4. Ceramics and Other Inorganic Materials
High-technology ceramics, especially silicon ceramics, are
stable at extremely high temperatures; applications under inves-
tigation include turbines, heat exchangers, and energy-conver-
sion (such as synfuels production). (69) The field is the focus
of unrestrained enthusiasm of materials scientists.
5. Composites
As their name indicates, composites combine materials from
almost all other classes. The general structure is a reinforcing
fiber -- graphite, glass, ceramic, i.e., -- distributed in a
matrix -- often a polymer, or perhaps a metal. A presently com-
mon composite material is fiberglass, in which thin threads of
glass act as a strengthening material in a matrix of epoxy. In
the future scores of materials may be used as the base or matrix
-------
-180-
and scores of materials as the reinforcing fibers. These will
have different properties and characteristics, new uses, and un-
known health and environmental effects.
The materials in new high strength composite materials may
include not only fibers or carbon, but beryllium, quartz, and new
forms of fiberglass. The environmental problem is that as they
are used, recycled, or destroyed by combustion, fibers may be re-
leased to the environment. The very small particles may create
diseases analogous to black lung, asbestosis, and other problems
known to occur from the inhalation of fibrous material. (70)
Improperly disposed products degrade very slowly, potentially
creating leaching problems, of especial concern with such products
as boron fibers and metal whiskers. An EPA-sponsored mini-assess-
ment of composites reported no significant health hazards in use
or recycling but did call for further research on the effects of
combustion of these materials. (71)
--A recent example stems from the use of a new high strength
material based on carbon fibers imbedded in epoxy matrix in
high performance aircraft. A fire released a large number
of these carbon fibers in the smoky plume from the burning
aircraft. The fibers are electrically conductive; the
smoky plume settling on electric motors and other elec-
trical equipment unexpectedly caused a large number of
electrical shorts. This highlights the importance of subtle
side effects with regard to new technologies. (72)
6. Telematics-Related Materials
The high-growth computer and telecommunications industries
rely on extremely high value-added products. The field is still
in its infancy; expansion and evolution of new products are likely
to maintain a growth rate near the 13-15% a year of electronic
chemicals. (73) The lifecycle -- especially disposal of
telematics devices may present future environmental health
hazards.
-- The shift to electronic storage, processing, and
transmission of information is fueling a 35% a year
-------
-181-
expansion in the market for magnetic storage media (such
as floppy disks. (74)
The performance reliability advantages of fiberoptics over
electric lines is encouraging development of optical
glasses and fibers
which are already
finding applica-
tions in other
markets such as
medicine. (75)
The special en-
vironmental needs
of telematics
equipment demand
sensors with new
piezoelectric and
thermoelectric
materials. Qual-
EXHIBIT 29
Burgeoning uses of chemicals
and plastics in electronics
Market
1982 1987
(Million dollar?)
Semiconductors $750 $1.500
Passive components 250 400
Printed wiring boards 650 900
Photovoltaici §0 320
$1,710 $3,120
Annual
growth (avg.)
15%
10
7
40
13%
Source: Chemicalweek. "Electronic Chemicals:
L- Everyone Is scrambling for a piece of the action,"
April 20. 1983. p. 32.
ity control technology and management will be a vital,
generic prerequisite to production and use of all these
materials.
A 1983 California survey showed that 36 of 40 underground
storage tanks in the Silicon Valley area were leaking poten-
tially toxic materials. These storage tanks were the
depositories/repositories for the many chip manufacturing
and electronics firms in the area. At the Fairchild plant
in San Jose, workers discovered that a faulty storage tank
had discharged some 58,000 gallons of mildly carcinogenic
solvent trichloroethane into the underground water supply (76)
A 1980 survey by the California Department of Industrial
Relations found that the semiconductor industry had 1.3
illnesses per 100 workers, compared with 0.4 per 100 wor-
kers for general manufacturing industries,, Compensation
data from 1980 to 1982 show that almost half (46.9%) of
all occupational illnesses among semiconductor workers in
California resulted from exposure to toxic materials, more
than twice the incidence of illnesses from toxic exposures
among workers in other manufacturing industries. (77)
7. Energy-Related Materials
The continuing search for diverse energy technologies and
sources is creating needs for new materials. Use of lower grade
crude oils is spurring the development of new catalysts such as
zeolites. (78) The search for high-temperature superconductors
has spawned a new class of materials known as molecular conduc-
tors, including polymers such as polyacetylene and crystalline
salts of metals such as platinum. (79)
-------
-182-
Enhanced Oil Recpv_ejry_
Chemical agents, including surfactants, polymers, carbon
dioxide, modified starches, and salts are being injected under-
ground on a massive scale to increase oil recovery. Injection
rates may reach 100 billion pounds per year by 1985, The environ-
mental fate and long-term effects of such large-scale chemical
infusions are unknown. (80)
Batteries
Deployment of batteries as energy storage devices would in-
crease the occurrence of lead, cadmium, sulfur, nickel, or other
materials not now generally deployed in the environment in large
quantities. If the electric car becomes a substantial fraction of
the auto fleet, this growth in battery manufacture, use, and dis-
posal could be substantial. The materials used in batteries are
almost universally toxic to humans and biota. Further problems
could arise from the large-scale use of batteries in hearing aids,
calculators, computers, radios, and other portable devices. (81)
Photovoltaics
Fast-paced technical advances in the design and manufacture
of photovoltaic energy systems have made specialized applications
economical and are making massive deployment of photovoltaics
inevitable. (82) The combination of extensive, dispersed appli-
cation of new materials in photovoltaics could create a new, per-
vasive toxicity problem.
Although forecasts differ in their pacing of photovoltaic
penetration of the electricity market, all agree that the 1990's
will find economic photovoltaics filling 20-30% of the electricity
demand. This scale of use implies the annual manufacture of
literally millions of individual photovoltaic cells. (83)
Exposure to toxic substances could occur during mining and
manufacture, from occupational exposure to toxic gases or dusts,
from malfunction or accidental exposure (say through a residential
fire), during system use, from wastes from mining and manufacture,
or from disposal of photovoltaic systems at the end of the product
lifecycle. Fire toxicity is a special, unquantified concern for
photovoltaics.
-------
- IBS-
General ly, many of the materials and to a lesser extent the
processes used in photovoltaic manufacturing are similar to those
of the semiconductor electronics industry. While the semiconduc-
tor industry has in its short lifetime recorded no significant
occupational or environmental incidents, the long-term potential
both for occupationally-related risks and for waste disposal
problems has not been systematically explored.
The materials used in photovoltaics fall into three basic
categories: photovoltaic semiconductor materials such as doped
silicon, ceramic and polymer support materials, and the glasses
used to enclose the photovoltaic cells. Mining, purification,
manufacture, widespread use, and final disposal and dispersal of
these materials all might present new hazards.
Gallium arsenide can give rise to volatilized arsenic
and the highly toxic arsenic trioxide during a fire.
--Silicon dopants such as 'boron trichloride and phosphine
are known as toxic agents. They are used in very small
concentrations in the silicon-based photovoltaic cell,
about one part per million. .
--Other potential photovoltaic materials include germanium,
cadmium (as cadmium sulfide), indium, antimony,
'and copper sulfate almost universally bad actors.
--Many specialized ceramics, glasses, and non-conductive
polymers are being developed specifically for photovoltaic
applications. It is likely that different materials will
be manufactured for different applications, say residential
versus centralized utility. More well-known polymers
such as polymethyl methacrylate and polyvinyl chloride
are also being used and modified for photovoltaics. (84)
The broad range of potential applications of photovoltaics
will disperse these materials throughout society. Photovoltaics
are already economical for many stand-alone or remote operations,
such as boat and train batteries, portable clocks, calculators,
remote village electricity generation, and field communications.
In the near future extensive residential application is likely,
and further down the road grid-connected, central utility use can
be expected. Regional energy needs and economics will determine
-------
- 184-
th e speed and extent of photovoltaic adoption and consequently
the patterns of potential toxic exposure.
8. Agricultural Chemicals
Agricultural chemicals as such do not fall under the regula-
tory purview of OTS, although the office does have responsibility
for chemicals used as intermediates in pesticide manufacture. The
future of agricultural chemicals is closely tied to that of com-
mercial chemicals under TSCA, for several reasons:
Agricultural chemicals -- pesticides and fertilizers --
are a continuing, highly visible, political and regu-
latory issue. Their production, use and misuse, inter-
national trade, disposal, and environmental dispersal all
involve politically potent issues; the resolution of these
will unavoidably affect policy on other classes of chemi-
cals and health hazards.
Pesticides and fertilizers are a significant source of the
chemical load on the environment; they create degradation
products which can interact with other chemicals in the
soil, water, and biota. Neither industrial toxic chemi-
cals or agricultural chemicals should be regulated in iso-
lation. Organochlorine residues from such pesticides as
Chlordane, Aldrin, DDT, and heptachlor have been found in
over 90% of people tested, representative of the general
population. (85)
-- The technology of agricultural chemicals analysis is quite
advanced and can, in some cases, provide lessons
for other classes of chemicals. Some areas of concern
particularly relevant to OTS missions and toxic substances
are the array of new biology-based technologies and the
misuse of agricultural chemicals.
-- Both accidental and deliberate misuse of pesticides and,
to a lesser extent, fertilizers, is extensive. (86) A
USDA survey in Nebraska found that one-third of pesticide
applicators used faulty equipment or techniques. (87)
State oversight of npsticide use, disposal, and health
impacts varies widely, and may leave gaps in monitoring or
enforcement of government regulation. Public, industry,
and regulatory response to incidents or trends in toxic
exposures will affect the political and regulatory climate
for all toxic substances.
-- The many biology- and biochemistry-based pesticides which
are replacing traditional chemical pesticides hold the
promise of substantially reducing the amount of chemicals
-------
-185-
needed in agriculture. These include allelopathic chemi-
cals, natural herbicides produced by plants or microbes;
social insecticides, which interfere with the normal
social patterns of pests; microbial insecticides,
naturally produced by bacteria, viruses, and fungi; and
biological pesticides, which target pests with natural
predators or parasites. (88) The imminent widespread use
of these new technologies could substantially alter the
profile of chemicals released to the environment. They
could raise new concerns about the toxic effects of
artificially-produced molecules and organisms dispersed
on a very broad scale throughout the environment. (A
recent suit brought in 1983 to block the use of a
genetically-engineered bacterium to prevent frost forma-
tion on potatoes marked both the first proposed field
use of genetically engineered organisms and the first
corresponding leqal protest.)
D. TELEMATICS (TELECOMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTERS, INFORMATION TECH-
NOLOGIES)
The convergence of computers and communication technologies
is of fundamental and revolutionary importance to all areas of
science and technology and to all areas of public health and en-
vironmental management (see Exhibit 30 below). (These technologies
are also treated in Chapter 3, Section B.3, Product Trends in the
Domestic Chemicals Industry.)
The ability to assimilate and manipulate complex systems
interrelationships is making computers invaluable in modeling
such systems as:
the environment surrounding a proposed waste site;
-- movement and transformation of chemicals in the environ-
ment;
-- pharmacokinetic transformation of compounds within the
human body;
-- the links between chemical structure and biological
activity;
-- complex, multiphase reaction pathways in chemical manu-
facture.
Possible applications of data management particularly rele-
vant to chemicals are:
-------
-186-
EXKIBIT 30
BIOMEDICAL TELEMATICS INSTRUMENTS
Loca t i On
Subcutaneous
Su percutaneous
Percutaneous
Transcutaneous
Research
Microelectronics
for totally
implantable
telemetry of
flow, pressure.
and dimension.
for example
Mlcrotransducers
for animal back-
pack telemetry
of flow and
pressure, for
example
Implantable
biopotential
and temperature
mlcrotransducers
with exter-
nalized leads
Gamma ray micro-
transducer
arrays for
radlolsotope
Imaging; blood
pressure sensor
array with
plezoreslstive
Diagnostic
Totally
implantable
telemetry for
coronary by-
pass graft
monitoring
Ingestible
pH telemetry
capsule
Catheter-tip
blood gas
sensor
Computerized
X-ray
tomography
detector
arrays
Function
Monitoring
Cerebral pres-
sure telemetry
mlcrotransducers
and electronics
Ambulatory care
ECG telemetry
with active
microelectronics
Transvenous
pacing lead for
monitoring and
stimulation;
catheter-tip
pressure sensor
Piezoelectric
transducer
arrays for
ultrasonic
imaging; blood
gas monitor
raicrosensors
Therapeutic
Hicroelectrodes
*or neural
stimulator for
pain rel ief
Hicroelectrodes
and electronics
for bladder
stimulator
Electrical
stimulation of
bone for en-
hanced healing
Microtemperdturc
sensors for
hyperthermia;
microsensors for
defibril l,i tors
Prosthetic
Cardiac pace-
maker micro-
electronics:
auditory
prosthesis
microelectronics
Hearing aid
Microsensors
for left
ventricle
assist drive
Microoutica)
sensors and
tactile
stimulators for
optical -to-
tactile readina
jid for the
hi i"d
Extracutaneous Electron
mlcrmcnpp
Mass spectro- Miniature
meter, cell silicon qas
sorter chroma t«i|raph
for breath
analysis
Microsensors for
kidney dialvsi'.
Voice-actuated
wheelchair
:'nn f ro I lor
Compilation of a comprehensive national epidenn'oloyical
database, beginning as a matter of course at birth; and
accumulating information on health, occupation, lifestyle,
and family up until cause of death. The newly developed
National Death Index takes one step towards this. (89)
Coordination of the existing toxicology databases such as
RTECS (Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances),
TOXLINE, CANCERLINE, The Toxicology Data Bank, EMIC (Environ-
mental Mutagen Information Center), AGRICOLA, and EPB
(Environmental Periodicals Bibliography). (90)
Comprehensive data on chemicals throughout the lifecycle is
becoming increasingly accessible to all levels of users through
increased networking and lowered cost. The Chemical Substances
Information Network (CSIN), a project of the Interagency Toxic
Substances Data Committee, has achieved a high level of integra-^
tion and completeness by linking over 200 autonomous specialized
-------
-187-
data bases into a single universal library. (91) The data bases
linked through CSIN cumulatively provide information on chemical
nomenclature, composition, structure, properties, toxicity, pro-
duction, uses, health and environmental effects, and regulation.
The central access hub of CSIN allows users to access a wide range
of information relevant to a single chemical or issue in a single
procedure, overcoming such problems as the listing of chemicals
under different names in different data bases.
-- The smart card, a wallet-sized storehouse of personal
information such as medical records, resumes, and finan-
cial transactions, could provide a useful tool for epi-
demiology or occupational exposure records.
-- Real-time tracking of chemical transport (with the help of
satellite observation) can help avoid or mitigate acci-
dents during natural hazards and provide information on
traffic, accidents, and safety along shipping routes.
(See Chapter 3.C.2.)
The microprocessor, so-called brain on a chip, will become a «.
tool for wide-scale, low-cost, highly complex, monitoring and
evaluation of the natural environment, the workplace, and the home.
The ability of low-cost microprocessors to afford independent,
free-standing monitoring of large numbers of parameters in the
environment will become the basement knowledge for improved environ-
mental management. (92) The smart card, and increased monitoring
in general, will clearly raise issues of privacy and civil rights.
This will include, although it will certainly not be limited to,
monitoring of the environment.
Telematics is restructuring soci-al systems such as work (with
flextime and remote terminals), transportation (teleconferencing
replaces some travel), education, health care (with remote diag-
nosis via telematics), population distribution (decentralization),
recreation (video games), and computer crime. These changes
will, in turn, broadly affect the social environment of produc-
tion, use, and exposure to chemicals. The home could become a
concern for occupational safety and health if significant numbers
of workers shift towards part-time or full-time work at home. (93)
-------
-188-
E. BIOTECHNOLOGY AND TOXIC SUBSTANCES
Recent advances in molecular biology have created an entirely
new set of tools for man, tools whose potential has barely begun
to be realized. Applications are emerging not only in the produc-
tion of chemicals, but in the manufacture of almost all goods and
in the control of the environment.
The term biotechnology encompasses a group of related tech-
nologies based on converging advances in immunology, molecular
biology, and microbiology. The key technique is recombinant DNA
manipulation -- the ability to identify, isolate, and transfer a
gene coding for a particular protein, and then recombine it with
the genes of a foreign cell. Given suitable growth conditions,
this cell will then express its newly acquired gene by producing
the protein for which the new gene codes. Biotechnology Jias
enabled the production of human insulin by transferring the human
gene for insulin to a yeast cell, which in culture will produce
large amounts of human insulin indistinguishable from that pro-
duced in the human body.
Since DNA, the basic constituent of genes, is universal to
all living organisms, in theory any gene could be transferred to
any other organism. In practice, however, significant barriers
remain because of the complex differences in cellular mechanisms
for control of gene expression.
The other new tool of biotechnology is the production of
monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) through cell fusion. Antibodies are
produced by human cells in response to foreign molecules -- such
as flu virus proteins that enter the body. They are unique
in their high specificity and high affinity for particular sub-
stances. Extremely homogeneous preparations of MAbs can be made
which are similarly specific and will bind tightly and exclusively
to a single substance. Potential applications include:
-- preparation of extremely pure vaccines;
-------
-189-
-- purification (for example, by passing .a dilute solution of
a desired product over a column of MAbs specific for that
product);
-- diagnosis (highly sensitive MAbs are already being used to
track down proteins associated with cancer in the body);
-- detection and analysis;
therapy.
Paralleling the development of these laboratory techniques
have been engineering techniques for handling biological and bio-
chemical products -- cells, proteins, DNA, membranes, enzymes,
hormones, and other proteins, etc. -- in a variety of settings.
The generic new capabilities provided by these biotechnologies are
changing the pharmaceutical and chemical industries, revolutionizing
traditional agriculture, affecting medical technologies and envi-
ronmental detection and monitoring technologies. (94)
The application of biotechnology creates new processes for
production of existing products as well as for producing entirely
new ones. The growth of a new industry based on biotechnology
entails the development of new feedstocks, process engineering,
control systems, testing, and waste disposal techniques. Some
active areas of research in bioprocess engineering include:
-- development and improvement of engineering for continuous
bioprocessing systems, such as the fluidized-bed biological
reactor;
-- immobilized enzymes and cells (biocatalysts), using tech-
niques including microencapsulation, entrapment in a
polymer matrix, and adsorption to a physical substrate. (95)
Industry trends in this area are discussed in Chapter 3.C.
Biotechnology is now being used primarily for low-volume
specialized products. So far, scale-up of bioprocesses has proven
to be expensive and technically difficult. Current and near-term
applications include:
Pharmaceuticals, where the high value-added, low-volume
preparation of biologicals such as insulin provides a
natural area of application for biotechnology;
-------
-190-
-- specialty chemicals, such as ami no acids, enzymes,
vitamins, and steroids;
-- pollution cleanup and waste management, where mixtures
of micro-organisms can be used:to neutralize or digest
undesirable waste products;
-- microbial mining, using bacteria which naturally
concentrate heavy metals;
single-cell protein production, primarily for animal
feed; and
microbial enhanced oil recovery.
The principles and techniques of biotechnology can be applied
to industrial processes in different ways according to the product
or process desired.
-- Isolated enzymes or enzyme complexes can catalyze a
single specific reaction, such as the conversion of
glucose to fructose in the production of high-fructose
corn syrup.
« Micro-organisms (bacteria, fungi, and yeasts, primarily)
can be cultured for high-volume production of basic cell
matter, as in the production of single cell protein or
baker's yeast.
Mixtures of micro-organisms, genetically engineered or
not, can be used for complex processes such as waste
conversion or the production of ethanol. Standard sewage
treatment uses micro-organisms in this manner.
Micro-organisms that have been genetically engineered
can be used to produce and collect a desired gene product
such as interferon, hormones, and growth regulators.
Biotechnology and bioprocess engineering offer distinct advan-
tages and disadvantages in comparison with traditional manufacturing
processes. (96)
-- In some cases, biotechnology can provide a product that
otherwise could not be obtained, as with human insulin.
-- Biotechnology takes advantage of the complex biological
systems produced by nature to provide pre-packaged
conversion systems.
-- Reaction conditions for biological processes are usually
mild (atmospheric pressures, low temperatures less than
160°F) compared to standard manufacturing processes. The
occupational hazards of the new biotechnology industries
will likely be quite different from those of the current
organic chemical industry.
-------
-191-
-- The inherent instability of biological organisms and
processes makes quality control vital to bioprocess
engineering. Even with modern monitoring and control
systems, a genetically engineered organism may sponta-
neously revert or mutate, in rare cases rendering it
ineffective or possibly toxic,
-- Biological processes create new waste problems, requiring
disposal and treatment of large volumes of wastewater
and biocatalysts.
--.In some cases, biotechnology may solve problems much
more cheaply than other methods. Bacteria have been
engineered to prevent the crystallization of frost that
bacteria normally initiate on potatoes. (97) Standard
. approaches to prevent subsequent crop damage, such as
smudge pots and heaters, are more expensive.
-- Recombinant DMA technology is more selective and specific
than traditional chemical mutation techniques used in the
fermentation industry.
Biotechnology is making new feedstocks technically and econom-
ically feasible for organic chemical production. As the use of
biotechnology grows, this difference in feedstocks will alter the
entire industrial flow cycle, from mining and harvest to transport,
process engineering, and waste disposal. New product mixes will
emerge. Old feedstocks, especially petroleum products, will slowly
be displaced. This shift to new processes and products will change
occupational and consumer exposure to toxic substances, and alter
the release of potentially toxic substances to the environment
from industrial processes.
-- Biotechnology is now primarily using feedstocks such as
corn starch and beet molasses that have an established
production infrastructure for reliable supply, cost, and
quality control. In theory, any organic chemical can be
produced by either chemical or organic synthesis from
any carbon source.
-- Lignocellulose from wood and woody plants is a potentially
plentiful source of carbon, but there is now a lack of
cheap efficient mechanisms for conversion to glucose and
a strong competing demand from energy and forest products
markets.
-- Petroleum and coal are also potential biotechnology feed-
stocks. Pfizer operates a citric acid plant that can use
either molasses or refined hydrocarbons. (98) The existing
-------
-192-
capital and plant investment in the traditional petro-
chemical industry will likely prevent any significant
utilization of biomass as a feedstock in the near term.
-- Agricultural products and by-products are currently used
for the majority of industrial biotechnology production.
-- Industrial, agricultural, and municipal wastes so far
have found little use as a feedstock for biotechnology.
There has been as yit no comprehensive study of the applica-
bility of present toxicity testing to biocatalysts, or to products
and wastes of industrial biotechnology. While many processes are
using natural biological materials that apparently are non-toxic,
there may be an increasing need for new toxicologies! regimes for
biotechnological processes.
-------
-193-
REFERENCES
Chapter 3
1. U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983 U.S. Industrial Outlook.
Jananuary 1983, p. 9-11.
2. Thomas O'Brien, NBS and Industrial Biotechnology: Technical
Developments and~Future Measurement Needs, NBS Planning
Report 12, NBSIR 82-2549, July 1982, p. 10.
3. Chemicalweek, "Forecast 1984," January 4, 1984, p. 30
4. J. F. Coates, Inc., International Lonq-Ranqe Trends Affect-
ing the Business Environment, Washington, D.C., January 3, 1983.
5. . Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN), "Facts and Figures for
the Chemical Industry," June 13, 1983, p. 54.
6. Thomas O'Brien, NBS and Industrial Biotechnology, p. 12.
7. C&EN, "World Chemical Outlook," December 19, 1983, p. 29.
8. C&EN, "Facts and Figures for the Chemical Industry," June 13,
1983, p. 54.
9. C&EN, "Big Changes in Chemical Firms by 2000," October 11,
1982, p. 6.
10. Ibid.
11. U.So Department of Commerce, 1983 U.S. Industrial Outlook,
January 1983, p. 9-8.
12. _Ibi_d.
13. Chemical week, "The Comeback Plan of BP Chemicals," July 20,
1983, pp. 48-49.
14. Chemical week, "International Forecast 1983: Facing up to
Another Tough Year," January 19, 1983, pp. 26-28.
15. C&EN, "World Chemical Outlook," December 19, 1983, p* 29.
16. Ibid.
17. O'Brien, op, cit., pp. 32 ff.
-------
-194-
18o C&EN, "Eastern Canada Eyed for Petrochemicals," January 3,
T98I, p. 24.
19. Chemicalweek. "Facing up to another tough year," January 19,
1983, pp. 39-40.
20. Ibid. , pp. 37-39.
21. Earl Anderson, "Developing Nations Boost Chemical Exports,"
C&EN, August 23, 1982, pp. 26-27.
22, David Webber, "New Chemical Business Recovery May be Very
Different," C&EN, January 10, 1983, pp. 14-17.
23. William J. Storck, "Chemical Producers Face Yet Slower Growth,"
C&EN. April 11, 1983, pp. 11-14.
24. Chemicalweek. "Forecast 1984," January 4, 1984, pp. 30-41.
25. Ibid., pp 32-33.
26. C&EN, "Facts and Figures," June 13, 1983, p. 30,
27. Ibid., p. 50.
28. Chemicalweek. "Forecast 1984, January 4, 1984, pp 30-41.
29. C&EN, "Facts and Figures," June 13, 1983, pp. 26-27.
300 Chemicalweek, "Forecast 1984," January 4, 1984, p. 35.
31. Ibid.
32. C&EN, "Facts and Figures," June 13, 1983, p. 43.
33, B. J. Luberoff, Technology-Driven Change in the Next Decade,
speech manuscript, 1982, for example. Also NSF, Trends to
1982 in Industrial Support of Basic Research. NSF 83-302.
34. Chemicalweek, "Between the plans for R&D and reality,"
June 1, 1983, p. 22.
35. Chemicalweek. "Forecast 1984," January 4, 1984, p. 34.
36. Michael Heylin, "Cooperation in Chemistry Makes Progress,"
C&EN. October 17, 1983, p. 33.
37. National Science Board, Science Indicators 1982. Washington, D.C.:
U.S. GPO, 1983, Table 4-8, p. 284,
-------
-195-
'38. Ibid., p. 284.
39« O'Brien, op. cit.
40. Drawn largely from Chemical week, "Scale-Up: New Challenges....
More Powerful Techniques," July 13, 1983, pp. 34-370
41. , Robert G. Healy, America's Industrial Future: An Environ-
mental Perspective, An Issue Report from Conservation Founda-
tion, Washington, D.C., 1982, p. 17.
42. C&EN, "Texas1 Preeminence in Chemicals is Slipping," March 14,
T983, p. 18.
43. Robert Healy, OP. cit.. pp. 16-18; and A. D. Little, Inca,
The Chemical Industry; Business Strateenies for the 1980*s.
T980I
44. H. Jeffrey Leonard, Are Environmental Regulations Driving U.S.
Industry Overseas? Washington, D.C.: Conservation Foundation,
1984.
45. A comprehensive source of information onfall aspects of the
petrochemical industry is The International Petrochemical
Report, published by McGraw-Hill.
46. National Science Foundation, "U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry
Losing Ground to Foreign Competition, NAE Study Shows,"
Press Release, NSF PR83-53, August 1, 19830
47 See Clement Bezold (ed.) Pharmaceuticals in the Year 2000]
Alexandria, Virginia: Institute for Alternative Futures, 1983.
48. J« F« Coates, Inc., Trends Affecting the Future of the Fish
and Wi1dlife Service, Washington, D.C., January 12, 1983,
pp. 168-172.
49t Chemical week, "How Chemical Designers will Work in Three
Dimensions," March 30, 1983, ppa 32-36; and Stephen Stinson,
"Institute Gathers Chemical Engineering Data," C&EN,
January 3, 1983, p. 36.
50. An excellent and extensive reference on the industrial appli-
cation of robotics is: Robert U. Ayers and Steven M, Miller,
Robotics: Applications and Social Implications, Cambridge:
Ballinger, 1983.
51 C&EN, "Chemical Firms Rank High on Information Services,"
April 18, 1983, p. 18.
-------
-196-
52. John W. Watson, Alan S. Goldfard, and Vivian R. Aubuchon,
Waste Generation in the Organic Chemicals Industry: A Future
Perspective, MITRE Corporation, October 1980, pp. 7-18.
53. Chemicalweek, "Restructuring: How the Chemical Industry is
Building its Future," October 26, 1983, pp. 26-62.
54. Edward W. Lawless and Howard M. Gadberry, Forecasting Emerging
Environmental Problems: Development of a Program Plan, Kansas
City, Missouri, Midwest Research Institute, MRI Report 5-1710-L,
May 1978.
55. Chemicalweek, "Gambling on Chemicals from Coal Gasification,"
June 1, 1983, p. 19.
56. Office of Technology Assessment, Cpmmercia1_ Biotechnology.
Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO, 1984.
57. Joseph F. Coates, Implications of Biotechnology for the National
Bureau of Standards. NBS Planning Report 9, November 6, 1981.
58. O'Brien, op. cit.
59. Ibid.
60. Alan Bull, et al., Biotechnology: International Trends and
Perspectives, Paris: OECD, 1982, pp. 34-38.
61. OTA, Commercial Biotechnology, p. 244.
62. Ibid.
62. O'Brien, op. cit.
64. New York Times, "Hazardous Waste Tally Keeps on Growing,"
September 4, 1983.
65. Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies and Management
Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control. Washington, O.C.:
U.S. GPO, March 1983, pp. 111-133.
66. Ibid.
67. Drawn largely from C&EN. "Waste Treatment Firms Handling Less
Volume," May 31, 1982, p. 320
68, Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies and Management
Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control. Washington, D.C.:
U.S. GPO, March 1983, p. 121.
-------
-197-
69. Ibid.
70. United Nations Environmental Programme, "Industry and
Environment," Industrial Hazardous Waste Management 4,
Special Issue,'1983.
71. Samuel Epstein, Lester Brown, and Carl Pope, Hazardous Waste
in America* San Francisco: Sierra Club Books, 1982.
72. Ronald Alsop, "Widespread Fear of Hazardous Waste Sites
Thwarts State and Industry Disposal Plans," Wall Street
Journal. March 10, 1983.
73. Sam Gusman, Konrad von Moltke, Frances Irwin, and Cynthia
Whitehead, Public Policy for Chemicals: National and Inter-
national issues, the Conservation Foundation, 1980, pp. 100-102,
74. C&EN. "Waste Treatment Firms Handling Less Volume," May 31,
1"982, p. 32.
75. Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies and Management
Strategies for Hazardous Waste Control. March 1983, p. 6.
76. Ibid., p. 5.
77. Epstein, et al., op. cit., p. 320.
78. Alsop, op cit.
79. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Public Awareness,
Environmental Information, March 1979, p. 1,
80. For example, Barnaby J. Feder, "The E.P.A0 Gets Tough on
Waste," New York Times. December 22, 1980, or Chemicalweek.
"Learning to cope with RCRA," November 12, 1980, pp« 64-71,
81. See Office of Technology Assessment, Habitability of the Love
Canal Area: An Analysis of the Technical Basis for the
Decision on the Habitability of the Emerging Declaration
ATea -- ft Technical Memorandum, Washington, D.C. June 1983;
and Pete Earley, "Dioxin is Still a Mystery," Washington Post,
February 27, 1983.
82. Samuel Freedman, "Finding New Ways to Destroy Toxic Waste,"
New York Times. January 10, 1983, p. 81.
83. Chemical week, "Burning Hazardous Waste: It's Costly, but it
May be the Best Solution," October 5, 1983, p. 92.
-------
-198-
84. Epstein, et al., op. cit.
85. Edward W. Lawless and Howard M0 Gadberry, op. cit.
86. Thomas J. Lueck, "Toxic Waste Disposal," New York Times,
December 30, 1982, p. 02.
87. Office of Technology Assessment, Te c h n o 1 o g i e s and Man a geme n t
Studies for Hazardous Waste Control. March 1983, p. 6.
88. Edward Lawless, of Midwest Research Institute, personal
communication, August 9, 1983.
89. C&EN. "Wastewater Systems Cleaning up Toxics," May 3, 1982,
p. 6.
90. Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co., An Industry Survey of Chemical
Company Activities to Reduce Unreasonable Risk, Washington, D0C(
Chemical Manufacturers Association, February^Yl, 1983.
91. Ibid.
92. Ibid.
93. Thomas H. Maugh II, "Carcinogens in the Workplace: Where to
Start Cleaning up," Science 197, September 23, 1977, p. 268.
94. Chemicalweek, "A Test for Women's Job Rights," March 12,
1980, p. 59.
95. Zsolt Harsanyi, Genetic Prophecy: Bevond the Double Helix.
New York: Rawson, Wade, 1981, p. 1180
96. Office of Technology Assessment, The Role of Genetic Testing
in the Prevention of Occupational Disease, April 1983.
97. Chemicalweek, "Plant security: extortion threats lead to
rising costs," February 16, 1983, p. 38.
98. Chemicalweek, "Liability insurance: It will cost more and
cover iless," February 2, 1983, p0 42.
99. Material in this section including the quote is based on
Douglas McLeod, "EIL Policies Can Differ Significantly,"
Busi ness Insurance, Grain Communications, Inc., November 28,
1983, and on other articles in the same issue, including
"Grappling with Pollution Insurance," by the same author.
-------
-199-
100. Ibid.
101. For further details see Norman Berstein, "The Enviro-Chem
Settlement," Environmental Law Reporter 10402, December 1983C
102. Chenvi calweek, "Liability Insurance: It will cost more and
cover less," February 2, 1983, p. 430
103. Ibid. pp0 42, 44.
104. Morton Mintz, "Bendectin Manufacturer Ends Production,"
Washington Post, June 10, 1983, p. Al.
105. Leslie Cheek, personal communication, November 3, 1983,
106. Eric Nagle, "RCRA Liability Insurance Rules: Evolution and
Unresolved Issues," The Environmental Forum 1 (7),
November 1982, p. 20.
J
-------
-200-
REFERENCES
Chapter 4
1. "The Shape of U.S. Population Trends," INTERCOM. The Inter-
national News Magazine, Population Reference Bureau, May-June,
1982. Hereafter cited as INTERCOM.
2. Ibid, and Metropolitan Life Statistical Bulletin. January-March 1984.
3. "Future Racial Composition of the U.S.," INTERCOM. September-
October 1982.
4. Statistical Abstract of the United States.(hereafter Stat. Abst.)
1981, Table 36.
5- Stat. Abst. 1981, Table 226.
60 Daniel Bell, The Comi_ng_ of the Post-1ndustrial Society. New
York: Basic Books, Inc., 1973, p. 14.
7.. E. B. Parker and Marc Porat, "Analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics Data: Social Implications of Computer/Telecommun-
ication Systems," Report No. 16, Center for Interdisciplinary
Research, Stanford University, February 1975.
8. Stat. Abst., Tables 636, 640.
9. National Science Board, Science Indicators 1982, Washing-
ton, D.C. U.S. GPO, 1983, p. 193. Appendices Table 1-3.
!0. Stat. Abst., Tables 59, 60.
11. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current
Population Reports, "Marital Status and Living Arrangements,"
Series P-20, No. 365, March 1980, Table F.
12. Philip L. Rones, "Moving to the Sun: Regional Job Growth,
1968-1978," Monthly Labor Review, March 1980, p. 14, U.S.
Department of Labor publication.
13. Population Reference Bureau, Population Bulletin 36, No0 2,
1982.
14. "A World that Grows More Crowded," U.S. News and World Report
August 2, 1982, p. 48. Basic data from U.N. sources.
15. U.S. Council on Environmental Quality and U.S. Department of
State, Global 2000 Report to the President (hereafter cited
as Global 2000), Vol. 1.
-------
-201-
16o Statistical Abstract, Tables 722-777p; also Bureau of Census,
Current Population Reports, Consumer Income^ Series P-20.
170 Howard Friedenberg, "Regional Differences in Personal Income
Growth, 1929-1977," Survey of Current Business, U.S. Dept. of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA 80-74, State
Projections of Personal Income to the Year 2000, December 9,
1980; and State Nonfarm Income, Recent Growth Patterns,
April 1975.
18. Conservation Foundation, State of the Environment 1982,
Washington, D.C., 1982, p. 138.
19. Issues Management, April 11, 1984, p. 4.
200 Conservation Foundation, State of the Environment 1982. p. 425.
21 Findings from a current study on The Future Environmental
Agenda, for EPA, by J. F. Coates, Inc., 1982-83, report
forthcomingo
22. United Way of America, What Lies Ahead: A New Look, Environ-
mental Scanning/Strategic Planning "Development Committee,
Alexandria, Va., 1983, p. 39.
23. Chemical & Engineering News, "Some 3000 PAC's Now Active in
Elections," January 24, 1983, p. 320
24. Dale Russakoff, "Getting Out the Green Vote for Friends of
Nature," Washington Post, October 5, 1982; and U.S. News
and World Report,"""'Issues that Stirred the Public,11 November 15,
1982, Po 31.
25. Interviews with officials at the National Wildlife Federation
August, 1983, and Directories cited.
26. Interviews with officials at Friends of the Earth, Washington,
D.C., August 1983.
27o Ibid,
28. Chemical week, "The Environmental Activists: They've Grown
in Competence, and They're Working Together," October 19,
1983, p. 48.
29. Delmar Blasco, Governmental Liaison Centre, speech before
Global Tomorrow Coalition, January 14, 1983.
30. Chemical week, "The Environmental Activists:They've Grown
in Competence, and They're Working Together," October 19,
1983, p. 52.
-------
-202-
31. American Chemical Society, Subcommittee on Environmental
Improvement, Committee on Chemistry and Public Affairs, Cleaning
Our Environment: The Chemical Basis For Action, Washington, D.C.:
American Chemical Society, 1969, pp. 5-6.
32. Information about the effects of the legislative veto decision
is based on discussions with James Aidala and Michael Simpson
of the Environmental Policy Division of the Congressional Re-
search Service and James I. Sundquist, Senior Fellow in the
Governmental Studies Program of the Brookings Institution, and
on an article by Mr. Sundquist, "The Legislative Veto: A
Bounced Check," The Brookings Review. Fall 1983, pp. 13 ff.
33. A summary of foresight legislation provided by the Congressional
Clearinghouse for the Future, U.S. Congress, 1983.
34. U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, State of the Environment
1.981. 12th Annual Report.
35. Ibid., also Conservation Foundation, State of the Environment
1982. Chapter 9; and New Scientist, "The U.S. Hits back at
Government Environmental Policy," November 4, 1982, p. 280.
36. Chemical & Engineering News, "EPA to Require Waste Dump In-
surance,11 April 19, 1982, p.6.
-,.
37. Chemical & Engineering News, "California Setting New Hazardous
Waste Rules," November 29, 1982, pp. 16-17.
38. Business Week. "When States Talk Tougher than the EPA," May 30
1983, p. 33; and Chemicalweek, "Panel: Let the States Do It,"
April 13, 1983, p.' 15.
39. Chemicalweek. "A Snail's Pace for Waste Site Plans," April 20,
1983, pp. 27ff.
40. Chemicalweek. "Panel: Let the States Do It," April 13, 1983,
p. 15.
41. See for example, Gladwin Hill, "Wide Disparity Found in Con-
trol of Pesticides Around the Nation," New York Times,
May 6, 1979.
42. Chemicalweek, "A Snail's Pace for Waste Site Plans, "April 20,
1983, pp. 27 ff.
43. Ibid.
44. Material in this section, unless otherwise cited, is drawn
from R.D. Speer, State Toxic Substances Legislation:
Activities and Trends, prepared for the National Conference
of State Legislatures, Denver, Colorado, and the U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, Office of Toxics Integration,
August 31, 1983, EPA Grant No. X810542-01-0.
-------
-203-
45. Ibid., p. 12.
46. Ibid., p. 2fi.
47. Ibid., p. 27.
48. Samuel S0 Epstein, M0D., Lester 0. Brown, and Carl Pope,
Hazardous Waste in America. San Francisco: Sierra Club
Books, 1982, p. 166.
49. Ibid., p. 168.
50. Ibid., p. 178.
51. Ibid., p. 177.
52. David L. Bazelon, U.S. Court of Appeals. See "Technology,
Litigation, and Justice," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
39, November 1983, pp. 10-11.
53. Chemica^ & Engineering News, "OSHA Ordered to Issue Ethylene
Oxide Standard," January 17, 1983, p. 9. Sustained by D.C.
Circuit Court in Public Citizen Health Research Group v.
Auchter. 702 F.2d 1150 (D.C. Cir. 1983).
54. Washington Post. "Sinister Side of Benzene Key to Case,"
July 3, 1980. Philip Shabecoff, "EPA Proposes Rules on Benzene,,...",
New York Times. December 17, 1983.
550 "Insulation-Foam Ban Nul 1 ified," New York Times, April 9, 1983, p, 8.
560 U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Qua!ity
1981, 12th Annual Report, Washington, D.C. 1982, p. 123*
57. Pete Earley, "Dioxin is Still a Mystery," Washington Post,
February 27, 1983»
580 Washington Post. "Allied's Kepone Battle, A 'Long, Painful
Haul,1 " January 13, 1980, A-50
59. U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality
1979, 10th Annual Report, Washington, D.C., pp. 176-179,
60. Ember, Lois, "Legal Remedies for Toxics Victims Begin Taking
Shape," Chemical & Engineering News. March 28, 1983, p. 16.
61 o IbicL p. 15.'. See also, Edwin Chen, PBB: An American Tragedy,
Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1979.
-------
-204-
62. Ibid.
630' M. F. Silcox and J. Highland, "History of Victim Compensation
Science," presented at a Scientific Forum on an Assessment
of the Scientific Knowledge Base Related to Victim Compensa-
tion, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., Janu-
ary 27-29, 1982.
64. Michael Brown, Laying Waste: The Poisoning of America by
Toxic Waste Chemicals. New YorlT: Pantheon Books, 1980. p. 327.
650 Chemical & Engineering News. "Toxic Tort Case May be at Fron-
tier of Legal Doctrine," March 28, 1983, p. 13.
66. Gail Bingham, "Using Negotiation Effectively in Resolving
Environmental Disputes," Excerpts from a training course de-
veloped and copyrighted by The Conservation Foundation,
Washington, D.C., 1982.
67. Conservation Foundation, Environmenta1 Pispute Resolution,
Selected Case Studies, Washington, D.C. n.d.
680 Bingham, op. cit.
69. David J. Hudson, "Mediation Finds Growing Use in Settling
Environmental Disputes," Chemical & Engineering News.
February 14, 1983, pp, 26-27.
700 Gail Bingham, "Does Negotiation Hold a Promise for Regulatory
Reform?" Resolve, Quarterly Newsletter on Environmental Dispute
Resolution, Conservation Foundation, Washington, D.C., Fall 1981.
71. Sam Gusman, et al, Public Policy for Chemicals: National and
Inte rna ti onal Is sues, Washington, D.C.: The Conservation
Foundation, 1980, xii, pp. 6-7.
72o David Hanson, "U.S. Gets its Way on Approval of New Chemicals,"
Chemical and Enqi neerinq News, January 24, 1983.
73. Nature, "Hazard Export: A Case for International Concern,"
June 8, 1978, p. 415.
74. Sam Gusman, et a!. Public Policy for Chemicals; National and
International Issues. Washington, D0C.: The Conservation
Foundation, 1980, p. 90
75. Gusman, op. cit.. pp. 116-117.
76. Gusman, op. cit.. p. 100.
-------
-205-
770 Gusman, op. ci t., p. 128.
78, Material in this section not otherwise cited is based on recent
discussion "with Mr. Robert Reinstein of the U.S. Special Trade
Representatives Office, and with Mr. S. Jacob Scherr, an attorney
active in the International Program of the Natural Resources
Defense Council, and on an article by Mr. Scherr, "Export
of HAZARDOUS Substances, a U.S. Right?", Interaction, News-
letter of the Global Tomorrow Coalition, Washington, D.C.,
Vol. 1, No. 1, November-December 1981.
79. Toxic. Materials Transport (Business Publishers, Inc.
Washington, D.C.), Vol. 4, No. 23, November 22, 1983.
80. Chemical week, "FIFRA Data Disclosure: Is It Unconstitutional?",
March 7, 1984, pp. 14-16.
81. Cass Peterson, "Chemical Industry is Now Supporting Adminis-
tration Proposal for Labeling," Washington Post, Septem-
ber 19, 1983. Also, Martha Hamilton, "New Jersey Label Law for
Chemicals Stirs Debate," Washington Post, August 31, 1983.
Also..Chenricalweek, "Communities Insist on Their Right to
Know," September 28, 1983.
82. Federal Register 48, No. 228, November 25, 1983, pp. 53280-
53348.
83. Chemicalweek. "Worker right to know: The Struggle moves into
the courts," April 18, 1984, pp. 38-44.
84. Timothy Atkeson, "Toxics Regulation and Product Liability:
Decreasing Exposure in the Workplace, Increasing Exposure in
the Courts," 13 Environmental Law Reporter 10418, December
1983
85. Chemical week, "For New Toxicity Data, Scrutiny with Secrecy,"
December 8, 1982, p. 24.
86. Martha Hamilton, "New Jersey Label Law for Chemicals Stirs
Debate," Washington Post, August 31, 1983.
87. Pete Early, "EPA lets Trade Secret Loose in Slip-Up, to
Firm's Dismay," Washington Post, September 18, 1982.
88. Chemicalweek, "The Environmental Activists: They've Grown
in Competence, and They're Working Together," October 19,
1983, pp. 51-52.
89. Chemical & Engineering News, "Hazardous Wastes for the Layman,"
January 10, 1983, pp. 27-28
-------
-206-
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
101.
102.
Vance Bibliographies, Pi rectory of Envi ronmental Publ i cati ons ,
P-345, October 1979.
See reference No. 19. Ongoing work by J. F. Coates, Inc., for
EPA.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, The Report to Congress;
Waste Disposal Practices and their Effects on Groundwater.
Office of Water Supply and Office of Solid Waste Management
Programs, 1977. Also U.S. Water Resources Council, The
Nation's Water Resources. 1975-2000, Vol. 1, Summary, 1978.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Planning Workshops to
Develop Recommendations for a Ground Water Protection Strategy,
Appendices. EPA Office of Drinking Water, June 1980.
J. H. Lehr, "How Much Ground Water Have We Really Polluted?"
Ground Water Monitoring Review, Winter, 1982.
Veronica I. Pye, "Groundwater Contamination in the United States,"
Workshop on Groundwater Resources and Contamination in the United
States, Summary and Papers, National Science Foundation, PRA
Report 83-12, August 1983, p. 34.
Ibid, p. 37.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Computer Printout of
Disease Outbreaks Attributed to Ground Water Between 1948 and
1980. Compiled and reported in Pye, op. cit, p. 47. See also:
J.S. Hubert and L.W. Canter, Health Effects from Ground Water
Usage. National Center for Ground Water Research, Norman,
Oklahoma, Report No. NCGWR 80-17, 1980.
Pye, pj
p. 49.
R. H. Harris, "Health Effects Associated with Organic Chemical
Contaminants in Ground Water," presented at the AAAS Annual
Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 1982. Harris is with
Clement Associates, Washington, D.C.
David E. Burmaster, Contamination of Ground Water by Toxic
Chemicals. U.S. Council on Environmental Quality, January 1981.
Pye, op. cit.. p. 49, after Burmaster, op. cit.
J. Tevere MacFadyen, "Routine Shipments of Essential Goods
are Freighted with Special Risks," Smithsonian Magazine,
April 1984, pp. 44-53.
-------
103. Ibid., p. 50. See also Chemical & Engineering News, November 24,
1980; also based on discussions with CHEMTREC operations manager
and staff.
104. Chemical & Engineering News. March 24, 1980, p. 70
105. Chemical & Engineering News. November 24, 1980, p. 20.
106. Ibid. See also MacFadyen, op. cit., p. 46.
107. Ibid.
108. MacFadyen, op.cit., p. 46.
109. V. T. Coates, T. Fabian, M. McDonald, Nineteenth Century Tech-
nology, Twentieth Century Problems. Prepared for EPA Office
of Special Assessments and Strategic Studies, by Dames & Moore,
Washington, D.C., May 1981.
Michael H. Brown, Laying Waste. Boston: Pantheon Books, 1981,
p. 115.
Coates, Fabian, McDonald, op. cit.
Compiled from printouts established by Army Corps of Engineers,
during study cited in Ref. No. 109, ff.
New York Times. "Dams Labeled as Unsafe Remain Unrepaired "
November 15, 1981.
Frederic Golden, "Storm over a Deadly Downpour," Time,
December 6, 1982, p. 84; and R. Jeffrey Smith, "Administration
Views on Acid Rain Assailed," Science 221, August 5, 1983,
P. 38.
115. J. Donald Cook, E.P.A., "Facing the Challenge of Acid Rain,"
Chemical & Engineering News, April 2, 1984, p. 36; Cf Letter
to the Editor of New York Times by Russell W. Peterson, President
of Audubon Society, March 13, 1984.
116. Edward C. Krug and Charles R. Frink, "Acid Rain on Acid Soil:
A New Perspective," Science 221, August 5, 1983, p. 522.
117. National Research Council, Committee on the Atmosphere and
the Biosphere, "Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions: Towards
a Better Understanding of the Ecological Consequences of
Fossil Fuel Combustion," Washington, D.C.: National Academy
Press, 1981.
118. Fred Pearce, "The Menace of Acid Rain," New Scientist.
August 12, 1982, p. 419.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
-------
-208-
119. Pearce, op. cit., p. 423.
1200 Comptroller General of the United States, General Accounting
Office, The Debate Over Acid Precipitation, Washington, D,C.:
GPO, September 11, 1981, pp.'l, 11-13.
121. Office of Technology Assessment, The.Role of Genetic Testing
in the Prevention of Occupational Disease, April 1983,
Washington, D.C.
-------
-209-
REFERENCES
Chapter 5
1. Science Council of Canada, Policies and Poisons: The
Containment of Long-term Hazards to Human Health in the
Environment and in the Workplace, Report No. 28, Ottawa,
Ontario: Science Council of Canada: October 1977, p. 14.
20 American Chemical Society, Committee on Environmental Improve-
ment, Cleaning Our Environment: A Chemical Perspective, second
edition, Washington, D.C., American Chemical Society, 1978,
p. 96.
3. National Research Council, Strategies to Determine Needs and
Priorities for Toxicity Testing, Volume 1: Design. Washington,
D.C., National Academy Press, 1981, pp. 18-19.
4. National Research Council, Toxicity Te st inq: Strateg i e s to
Determine Needs and Prion'ties, Washington, D.C., National
Academy Press, 1984, p.3.
5. National Research Council, Toxicity Testing: Strategies to
Determine Needs and Priori ties, Washington, D.C., National
Academy Press, 1984, pp.117-119.
6. Mark Nuttner, OTS, personal communication, May 8, 19840
7. American Chemical Society, Committee on Environmental Improve-
ment, Cleaning Our Environment: A Chemical Perspective, second
edition, Washington, D.C., American Chemical Society, 1978,
Po 43.
8. L. A. Currie, "The Analytical Measurement Process: Assumptions
and Realistic Measures of Uncertainty," presented at a sympo-
sium on Improving the Analytical Chemistry/Regulatory Inter-
face, October 19-21, 1983, National Bureau of Standards,
Gaithersburg, Maryland, cited below as NBS 10/82 symposium.,
9. Velmer A. Fassel, "Quantitative Elemental Analyses by Plasma
Emission Spectroscopy," Science 202, October 13, 1978,
pp. 183-191.
10. Gangadhar Choudhary, ed«, Chemical Hazards in the Workplace:
Measurement and Control, American Chemical Society Symposium
Series 149, Washington, D.C., American Chemical Society, 1981.
11. Ibid.
-------
-210-
12. Etcyl H. Blair, "Analytical Chemistry and the Regulatory
Interface the Industry View," presented at NBS 10/82
symposium.
130 David B0 Maclean, "Role of AOAC in the Regulatory Process,"
presented at NBS 10/82 symposium.
14. Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN), "Dioxin-Tainted Town;
EPA will Buy Homes, May Raze Site," February 28, 1983, p.6.
15. David B. Maclean, op. cit.
16. Curt W. Reimann, "The Concept of an Analytical Chemical
Measurement System," presented at NBS 10/82 symposium.
17. American Chemical Society, Committee on Environmental
Improvement, op. cit., p. 980
18. Ibid.
19- Chemi calweek, "Tighter Controls on Toxics Testing," August 14,
1983, p. 35.
20. Office of Technology Assessment, The Information Content of
Preinanufacture Notices, Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO,
April 1983, pp. 50-54.
21. Ibid., p. 51.
22. National Research Council, Toxicity Testing, Strategies to
Determine Needs or Priorities, Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1984,
pp. 8-10.
23. James E. Gibson, personal communication, August 24, 1983.
24. ChqiqicaJIweek. "Faster, Cheaper Testing for Mutaqens,"
February 23, 1983.
25. Robert Simon, personal communication, September 20, 1983.
26. Robert N. Hoover, "Identification and Quantification of Health
Hazards in Populations: The Epidemiologic Assessment of Risk,"
presented at Scientists' Forum on An Assessment of the Scientific
Knowledge Base Related to Victim Compensation, January 27-29,
1982, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., cited below
as NSF 1/82 Forum, p. 26.
27. H. Garrett DeYoung, "Biosensors: The Mating of Biology and
Electronics," High Technology, November 1983, pp. 41-47.
28. Robert N. Hoover, op. cit.
-------
-211-
29. Michael Brown, Laying Waste: The Poisoning of America by
Toxic Chemicals, New York: Pantheon Books, 1980, p. 327.
30. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Human
Health and the EnvironmentSome Research Needs. Report of
the Second Task Force for Research Planning in Environmental
Health Science, Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO, 1977, pp. 278-284.
31. Eliot Marshall, "Toxicology Labs to Bar Financial Conflicts,"
Science 22, August 19, 1983, pp. 727-28; or Sharon Begley,
"Scandal in the Testing Lab," Newsweek. May 30, 1983, p. 83.
32. National Research Council, Strategies to Determine Needs and
Priorities for Toxicity Testing, Volume 1: Design, Washington,
D.C., National Academy Press, 1981, pp. 74, 100-101.
33. Robert N. Hoover, op. cit., pp. 3-4.
34. Robert N. Hoover, op. cit,.. pp.'T8.
35. The following outline of the applications and techniques
of epidemiology is taken from Robert N. Hoover, op.cit., pp. 9-14.
36. Robert N. Hoover, op. cit., p. 23.
37. Ibid.
38. Larry D. Edmonds, Peter M. Lyde, Levy M. James, J. William Flynt,
J. David Erickson, and Godfrey P. Oakley, Jr., "Congenital Mal-
formations Surveillance: Two American Systems," International
Journal of Epidemiology 10 (3): 247-252, 1981.
39. Robert N. Hoover, op. cit.
40. Science "A New Kind of Epidemiology," May 4, 1984, p. 481.
41. Gary Hertz, NBS Center for Analytical Chemistry, personal com-
munication, October 12, 1983,,
42. Jeremy Mai'n, "DOW vs. the Dioxin Monster," Fortune, May 30,
1983, p. 83.
43. Environmental Protection Agency, "Report of the Toxics Inte-
gration Project," September 1981,
44. Gangadhar Choudhary, ed., op. cit.
45. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, "New Satellite
Technology Tested for Use as Toxic Waste Monitor," Release
No. 82-38, October 13, 1982, for example, and Robert L. Swann
and Alan Eschenroeder, Eds,, Fate of Chemicals in the Environ-
ment. American Chemical Society Symposium Series 225, Washington,
D.C.: American Chemical Society, 1983.
-------
-212-
46. For example, Gordon Graff, "Fiber Optics Analyze Chemical
Processes," High Technology. February 1983, pp. 24-25.
47. Office of Technology Assessment, Impacts of Applied Genetics.
Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO, April 1981, p. 125
48. Virgil Freed, "Tracing the Movement of Pollutants through the
Environment," presented at Scientists' Forum on An Assessment of
the Scientific Knowledge Base Related to Victim Compensation,
January 27-29, 1982, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C,
49. National Research Council, Strategies to Determine Needs and
Priorities for Toxicity Testing. Volume 2: DevelopmentT
Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1982, p. 27.
50. Bertram W. Carnow and Shirley A. Conibear, "Clinical Environ-
mental and Occupational Medicine," presented at Scientists'
Forum on An Assessment of the Scientific Knowledge Base Related
to Victim Compensation, January 27-29, 1982, National Science
Foundation, Washington, D.C.
51. Curt W. Reimann, op. cit.
52. Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Company, An Industry Survey of Chemical
Company Activities To Reduce Unreasonable Risk,"Washington, D.C.;
Oiemical Manufacturers Association, FebruaTyTl, 1983, p.22.
53. Robert H. Ross and Paul Lu, Chemical Scoring System Develop-
ment, work sponsored by the Assessment Division, Office of
Pesticides and Toxic Substances, Draft, June 1981.
54. National Research Council, Toxicity Testing: Strategies to
Determine Needs and Priorities. Washington, D.C.: National
Academy Press, 1984.
55. For example, Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah
Lichtenstein, "Rating the Risks," Environment 21(3), April
1979, pp. 14-39.
56. Robert H. Hoover, op. cit., p. 36.
57. Zsolt Harsanyi and Richard Hutton, Genetic Prophecy: Beyond
the.Double Helix, New York: Rawson, Wade Publishers, 1981,
p. 40.
58. James E. Gorman, Hazards to Your Health. New York Academy of
Sciences, 1979, p. 8.
59. Richard D. Lyons, "Physical and Mental Disabilities in
Newborns Doubled in 25 Years," New York Times, July 18,
1983, p. A15.
-------
-213-
60. Victor Cohn, "No Increase Seen in Rate of Birth Defects,"
Washington Post, September 16, 1983, p. A3.
61. Bruce N. Ames, "Dietary Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens,"
Science 221, September 23, 1983, pp. 1256-1264; or National
Research Council, Diet, Nutrition and Cancer, Washington,
D.C. : National Academy Press, 1982.
62. National Science Foundation, Groundwater Resources and
Contamination in the United States, Papers for and Summary
of a Workshop, March 14-15, 1983, PRA Report 83-12, Washington,
D.C.: National Science Foundation, August 1983.
63. V.T. Coates, J.F. Coates, and H.H. Hitchcock, Clues to the
Domestic Environmental Agenda for the Next Three Decades,
February 8, 1983, p. 23.
64. For example, Nicholas J. Grant, "The New Metallurgy of Rapid
Solidification," in The Decades Ahead: An MIT Perspective,
Proceedings of a Symposium for Senior Executives, June 24-26,
1980, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT, 1980, pp. 379-92; or
Mary Helen Johnston, "Superalloys Take Flight," High Technology,
July/August 1983, pp. 29-30.
65. Carl Rain, "Surface Magic: Making Metals Tougher," High
Technology, March 1983, pp. 59-64; or Thomas Moore, "New
Victories in War on Corrosion," High Technology, July/August
1983, pp. 25-26.
66. Chemical week, "Housing: The Rebuilding of Chemicals'
Bellwether Market," May 25, 1983, pp. 42-46.
67. Chemicalweek, "Rising Auto Sales Boost the Hopes of Plastics
Makers," September 21, 1983, pp. 12-13.
68. National Science Foundation, The Five-Year Outlook: Problems,
Opportunities and Constraints in Science and Technology',
Volume II, NSF 80-30, Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, 198'0, pp. 177-79. Also Selwyn Enzer, Plastics --
Competing Material by 1985: A Delphi Forecasting Study,
Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future, 1971.
69, John Kerr, "British Bid to Catch Up in Ceramics," New Scientist,
July 26, 1983, p. 269; and H. Kent Bowen, "Ceramics in High
Technology Systems: Process Innovations," in The Decades
Ahead: An MIT Perspective, Proceedings of a Symposium for
Senior Executives, June 24-26, 1980, Cambridge, Massachusetts:
MIT, 1980, pp. 367-78.
-------
-214-
70. V.T. Coates, et al., op. cit.
71. Ted Lynch, Larry Davies, and Justine Alchowiak, Assessment of
Future Environmental Trends and Problems of Increased Use,
Recycling and Combustion of Fiber-Reinforced, Plastic and
Metal Composite Materials, Project Summary, Washington, D.C.:
U.S. GPO, October 1982, p.2.
72. V.T. Coates, et al^, op. cit.
73. Chemicalweek, "Electronic Chemicals: Everyone is Scrambling
for a Piece of the Action," April 20, 1983, p. 32.
74. Chemicalweek, "Magnetic Storage Media: A Materials Market
in a Ferment," February 9, 1983, p. 38.
75. National Science Board, Science Indicators 1980, Washington,
D.C.: U.S. GPO, 1981, p. 202.
76. Time, "Sounding the Tocsin for Toxins," July 25, 1983, p. 61.
77. LaDou, Joseph, "The Not-So-Clean Business of Making Chips,"
Jj^chm}loj$_R_ey_i_e_w, May/June 1984, pp. 23-24.
78. Nicholas Basta, "Zeolites: Old Minerals Get a New Look,"
High Technology, July 1983, p. 59; and Chemical week, "Early
Health Warnings over Exposure to Zeolites," August 3, 1983.
79. Paul Breeze, "Molecular Path to a New Electronics," New
Scientist, June 16, 1983, p. 782.
80. Edward W. Lawless and Howard M. Gadberry, Forecasting Emerging
Environmental Problems: Development of a Program Plan, Final
Report, MRI Project No. 5-1710-L, Kansas City, Missouri:
Midwest Research Institute, May 15, 1978.
81. V.T. Coates, e_t aK_, op. cit.
82. Paul D. Maycock and Edward N. Stirewalt, Photovoltaics:
Sunlight to Energy in One Step, Andover, Massachusetts:
Brick House Publishing, 1981.
83. Paul D. Maycock, Katsunori Shimada, Edward N. Stirewalt, and
V. Daniel Hunt, America Challenged: Photovoltaics in Japan,
Alexandria, Virginia: Photovoltaic Energy Systems, Inc., 1982,
84. V.T. Coates, e_t aj^, op. cit.
85. Science News, "Pesticides: The human body burden,"
September 24, 1983, p. 199.
-------
-215-
86. David Bull, A Growing Problem: Pesticides and the Third World
Poor. Oxford: Oxfam, 1982.
87. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service,
Inputs; Outlook and Situation. IOS-1, June 1983, p. 9.
88. Among many examples, Alan R. Putnam, "Allelopathic Chemicals:
Nature's Herbicides in Action," C&EN, April 4, 1983, pp. 34-39;
New York Times, "Duped Pests Find Death in Mating,' August 20,
1982, p. A10; Washington Post. "Social Insecticide," March 25,
1983, p. A21.
89. Robert N. Hoover, op. ci't., p. 29.
90. National Research Council, Strategies to Determine Needs and
Priorities for Toxicity Testing, Volume 2: Development,
Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1982, pp. 134-36.
91. National Research Council, Strategies to Determine Needs and
Priorities for Toxicity Testing, Volume 1: Design, Washington,
D.C.: National Academy Press, 1981.
92. Andrea B. Coolidge, Joseph F. Coates, Henry H. Hitchcock, and
Teresa Gorman, Environmental Consequences of Telematics:
Telecommunication, Computation, and Information Technologies
A Mini-Assessment. April 1982, Washington, D.C. and Chemical-
week. "Taking Toxics Testing out to the Toxics," May 30, 198~4,
pp. 35-39.
93. Andrea B. Coolidge, et al, op. cit.
94. Joseph F. Coates, Implications of Biotechnology for NBS,
A Seminar Presentation. Planning Report 4, National Bureau
of Standards, Planning Office, November 16, 1981, Washington, D.C,
95. Office of Technology Assessment, Impacts of Applied Genetics,
Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO, April 1981, pp. 85-106.
96. See Steven 0. Hochhauser, "Bringing Biotechnology to Market,"
High Technology. February 1983, pp. 55-60; and Thomas C. O'Brien,
NBS and Industrial Biotechnology; Technical Developments and
Future Measurement Needs. NBSIR 82-2549, NBS Planning Report 12,
Washington, D.C.: National Bureau of Standards, July 1982.
97, Harold M. Schmeck, Jr., "Gene-Splicers Plan Release of Bacteria
to Aid Crops," New York Times, August 30, 1983, p. Cl.
98..Steven J. Hochhauser, "Bringing Biotechnology to Market,"
High Technology, February 1983, pp. 55-60.
-------
APPENDIX .
LIST OF WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVIEWEES
-------
3738 KANAWHA STREET. N.W. WASHINGTON. 0 C. 70015
TOXICS '95
REVIEW WORKSHOP
September 14, 1983
8:30 Welcome, Coffee
9:00 Introductions
About this Project: Vary Coates, Project Manager
Ellen Selonick, EPA Program Manager
9:00 Plenary Round Robin: Your most important overall comments
on the discussion papers.
10:15 Paper Review Sessions: Working Groups
Comments, Criticisms,, Suggestions
Questions for the Participants
t Nominal Group Exercise: v
Trends and FactorsPriorities for Analysis
12:15 Lunch Break
1:00 . Working Group Reports and Further Discussion of Papers
U
2:00 The Future of Chemicals Production, Use, and Control:
The Implications of the Trends.
General Discussion
Working Groups: Brainwriting Exercise
Report Back, Further Discussion, and
Summation
4:00 Adjourn
Project Team:
Vary T. Coates, Ph.D., Project Manager
Joseph F. Coates
Lisa Heinz
Tracie Monk
Beverly Goldberg, Workshop Coordinator
-------
3i
J8 KANAWHA STREET. N.W. WASHINGTON. D.C. 20015
A-2
Participants
TOXICS '95
Review Workshop
September 14, 1983
Jim Aidala
Environmental Policy Division
Congressional Research Service
423 Madison Building
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
287-7254
Scott Baker
Senior Staff Officer
Toxicology Programs
Suite 651
National Academy of Sciences
2122 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20037
334-2536
Ed Bergen
OSHA
Department of Labor
200 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20210
523-8021
Paul Bickert
Office of Toxic Substances
EPA 207 East Tower
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20460
382-3683
Dr. Shirley Briggs
Director
Rachel Carson Council
8940 Jones Mill Road
Chevy Chase, Md. 20815
652-1977
Eloise Brooks, Director
Division of Industrial Operations
Office of Industry Policy
Department of Transportation
400 Seventh Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20590
426-4214
Dr. Ken Burgess
Dow Chemical Company
Midland, Mich.
(517) 536-3177
Christopher Cathcart
Chemical Manufacturers Assoc.
2501 M Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20037
887-1265
Dr. Charles Eby
Monsanto Corporation
1101 17th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
452-8880
Fran Irwin
The Conservation Foundation
1717 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
797-4300
David Kiefer
Managing Editor
Chemical & Engineering News
1155 16th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
872-4489
Dr. Winston Nottingham
Room 340
National Science Foundation
1800 G Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20006
357-7503
Dr. Jane Robens
Agricultural Research Service
Safety and Health Division
Beltsville, Md. 20705
(301) 344-3381
-------
A-3
Kenneth Rosenbaum
Environmental Law Institute
Suite 600
1346 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
452-9600
Ellen Selonick
Program Manager
Office of Toxic Substances
EPA 230 East Tower
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20460
382-3701
Dr. Robert Simon
Chemical Sciences and Technology
National Academy of Sciences
NAS 273
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20006
334-2156
Joe Uehlein
Industrial Union Department
AFL-CIO
815 16th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20005
842-7815
J.F. Coates, Inc.
Dr. Vary T. Coates, Project Manager
Joseph F. Coates
Lisa Heinz
Trade Monk
Beverly Goldberg, Workshop Coordinator
-------
A-4
3 KANAWHA STREET. N.W. WASHINGTON. O.C. 2001S
Participants
TOXICS '95
Review Workshop
December 14, 1983
Jim Aidala
Environmental Policy Division
Congressional Research Service
423 Madison Building
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
287-7254
Ed Bergen
OSHA
Department of Labor
200 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20210
523-8021
Justin Powell
Office of Toxic Substances
EPA
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20460
382-3689
Dr. Stephen Quigley
4849 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20008
695-5400
Kenneth Rosenbaum
Environmental Law Institute
Suite 600
1346 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
452-9600
Ellen Selonick
Program Manager
Office of Toxic Substances
EPA 230 East Tower
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20460
382-3701
-------
A-5
Some of the people who contributed substantially to this
report through discussion and interviews are listed below:
Gail Bingham, Associate, The Conservation Foundation
Dr. Charles Brown, Biometry Branch, National Cancer Institute
Leslie Cheek, Vice President, Federal Affairs, Crum & Forster
Insurance Companies
Donald N. Collins, Vice President, Communications, The Fertilizer
Institute
Ed Davidson, Director, Member Services, Chemical Specialties
Manufacturers Association
Chester Dickerson, Director of Agricultural Affairs, Monsanto
Corporation
Dr. Thomas Dietz, Graduate Projects in Science, Technology and
Public Policy, The George Washington University
Dr. James E. Gibson, Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology
Dr. Linda Greer, Staff Scientist, Toxic Chemicals Program,
Environmental Defense Fund
Erik Jansson, Research Associate, Friends of the Earth
Dr. Irene Ann Jillson, Policy Research, Inc.
George Kaiser, At-Sea Incineration
Dr. Ed Lawless, Midwest Research Institute
Dr. Ben Luberoff, Editor, Chemtech
Dr. Myron Numan, Environmental Studies Board, National Academy of
Sciences
Dr. Edna Palson, Director, Toxicology Information Center, National
Academy of Sciences
Sheldon W. Samuels, Director, Health and Safety, Industrial Union
Department, AFL-CIO
Joe Techet, Corn Product Corporation
Vincent Tocci, Director, Public Relations, American Chemical
Society
Gerard J. Waldron, Congressional Aide, Representative Ed Markey,
7th District, Massachusetts
Michael Walsh, Institute for Water Resources, Army Corps of
Engineers
-------
A-6
Liz Davenport, Environmental Action
Dr. Geraldine Cox, Vice President, Technical Director, Chemical
Manufacturers Association
Dr. Gary Hertz, Acting Director, Center for Analytical Chemistry,
National Bureau of Standards
Dr. Sam Shapiro, Professor, Health Policy, Johns Hopkins University
Bob Reineke, Chemical Waste Management, Inc.
Dr. Clement Bezold, Institute for Alternative Futures
Dr. Earl Pollack, Chief, Biometry Branch, National Cancer Institute
Dr. Larry Edmonds, Birth Defects Branch, Centers for Disease Control
Lawrence Norton, Director, Operations, National Agricultural
Chemicals Association
Russ Bunker, Office of Safety, Federal Railroad Administration
Godfrey P. Oakley, Director, Birth Defects Branch, Centers for
Disease Control
Dr. Robert Dickson, National Institute of Environmental Health
Sciences
Dr. Will Carpenter, Director, Environmental Operations, Monsanto
Corporation
Dr. Ron Condray, Monsanto Corporation
Sam Gusman, Director, Toxics Research, Conservation Foundation
------- |