EPA-600/3-76-072
July 1976
Ecological Research Series
IMPACTS OF
URBANIZATION ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
Environmental Research Laboratory
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Corvallis, Oregon 97330
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into five series. These five broad
categories were established to facilitate further development and application of
environmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The five series are:
1. Environmental Health Effects Research
2. Environmental Protection Technology
3. Ecological Research
4. Environmental Monitoring
5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
This report has been assigned to the ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH series. This series
describes research on the effects of pollution on humans, plant and animal
species, and materials. Problems are assessed for their long- and short-term
influences. Investigations include formation, transport, and pathway studies to
determine the fate of pollutants and their effects. This work provides the technical
basis for setting standards to minimize undesirable changes in living organisms
in the aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
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EPA-600/3-76-072
July 1976
ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION
ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
Edited
by
David L. Jameson
University of Houston
Houston, Texas 77004
Contract No. 68-01-2642
Project Officer
Harold V. Kibby
Criteria and Assessment Branch
Corvallis Environmental Research Laboratory
Corvallis, Oregon 97330
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
CORVALLIS ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
CORVALLIS, OREGON 97330
For Sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402 Stock No. 055-001-0104-8-6
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Corvallis Environmental Research
Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for
publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily
reflect the views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products con-
stitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
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ABSTRACT
This report provides a review of existing ecosystem models and the impacts
or urbanization on natural ecosystems. It has long been recognized that
infrastructure development such as highways and wastewater treatment faci-
lities affects urbanization. The placement of trunk sewers and highways
affects the pattern of development and the capacity of these systems
affects the rate of development in urban areas. EPA, therefore, asked
the Institute of Ecology to review the International Biological Program
(IBP) biome models to determine their usefulness in predicting ecological
effects associated with urbanization and, to the extent possible, to
develop simplified models to make such predictions. Access to IBP infor-
mation has been freely provided by various IBP offices although some of
the information has not been placed in completed reports and many of the
models are in active stages of development. The summaries of the model-
ing efforts result from the study of internal documents, conversations
with a number of the ecosystem modelers, the assistance of workshop parti-
cipants, and the contributions of volunteers. Most of the documents re-
ferred to may be obtained from the International Biological Program,
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge,
Tennessee, 37830.
The results of the work showed that at this point in time there was no
model, no matter how sophisticated, that could be used to predict the
ecosystem effects of urbanization. There are, however, models which are
useful in predicting specific effects from specific perturbations. To
this end, a logical sequence (space-time analysis) of exploring the poten-
tial ecological effects associated with various aspectsL"of urbanization
was developed.
We are most appreciative of all assistance received. The IBP studies
have been the efforts of interdisciplinary teams, and all participants,
contributors, and authors referred to in the literature cited deserve
special thanks.
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CONTENTS
Page
ABSTRACT iii
HOUSTON WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS ..... *ii
LAKE GEORGE WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS xiii
CONTRIBUTORS xiv
LIST OF FIGURES xv
LIST OF TABLES xviii
INTRODUCTION 1- 1
THE INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY 1 7
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES 1 7
THE INTERNATIONAL BIOLOGICAL PROGRAM (IBP) .... 1-8
METHODOLOGY [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY] 1-11
SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS 1-13
DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE 1 15
DESCRIPTION OF CHANGES ACCOMPANYING EACH
PROJECT ALTERNATIVE 1-18
DESCRIPTION OF INCREMENTAL AND SYNERGISTIC
EFFECTS 1-19
DESCRIPTION OF THE RECOMMENDED ACTION 1-19
REQUIRED OPERATIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WHICH RESULT
FROM THE RECOMMENDED ACTION 1-19
SUMMARY 1-20
LITERATURE CITED 1-22
A MODEL FOR PROJECTING LAND USES AND THEIR IMPACTS
ON ECOSYSTEMS 2-1
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INTRODUCTION 2-1
MODELING GOALS ..... 2-1
BASIS FOR MODEL 2-2
STRUCTURE OF MODEL 2-3
FORMULATION OF MODEL 2-4
FUNCTIONALITIES OF THE MODEL 2-6
External 2-6
Environmental 2-6
Societal 2-7
Aesthetic 2-7
Public-improvement 2-7
Ecologic 2-8
DATA PROCESSING ........ 2-8
CALIBRATION 2-10
VALIDATION 2-10
BIBLIOGRAPHY 2-12
MAN'S IMPACT ON THE ECOSYSTEM 3~ 1
IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON AGRICULTURAL
ECOSYSTEMS 3-2
IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION OF ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES . . 3-4
LITERATURE CITED ..... 3-18
MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF ECOSYSTEMS 4-1
ECOSYSTEM SUBMODELS (COMPONENT PROCESS MODELS) . . 4-3
Terrestrial Primary Production: 4-4
Terrestrial Secondary Production: 4-4
Terrestrial Decomposition: ..... 4-5
Terrestrial Nutrient Cycling: ......-•• 4-5
Hydrology: 4~ 5
Aquatic Primary Production: 4-5
vi
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Aquatic Secondary Production: .... 4-5
Aquatic Decomposition: 4-5
Aquatic Nutrients: 4-5
Terrestrial Primary Production 4-5
Terrestrial Secondary Production 4-7
Terrestrial Decomposition 4- 9
Aquatic Primary Productivity 4-9
Aquatic Secondary Production 4-10
Aquatic Decomposition and Mineral Cycling . . . 4-14
Physical and Chemical Processes 4-15
Meteorological or climatological parameters . . 4-15
Hydrology 4-16
Soil-Plant-Water Relations 4-17
Terrestrial nutrient cycling 4-17
Aquatic Nutrient Cycling . 4-18
ECOSYSTEM LEVEL MODELS 4-19
Ecosystem Models ..... 4-21
Subsystem Models 4-21
Applied Models 4-21
Trophic Interaction Model 4-21
Terrestrial Models of the Eastern Deciduous
Forest Eiome 4-23
Aquatic Models of the Eastern Deciduous
Forest Biome 4-28
Lake models 4-28
River-Model 4-29
Estuary Model 4-34
MODELING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS 4-34
METHODS AND TECHNIQUES FOR MEASUREMENTS 4-37
LITERATURE CITED 4-39
CASE STUDY OF WASTEWATER TREATMENT FACILITY
INVESTMENT AT LAKE GEORGE, NEW YORK s-i
VII
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DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE 5-3
Land Uses 5-3
Forests 5-4
Wildlife „ 5-6
Fish 5-6
Other Aquatic Life 5-7
Agriculture 5-8
Soils 5-9
Topography 5-10
Hydrology and Geology 5-11
Water Chemistry 5-13
Climate . 5-13
ANALYSIS OF DATA 5-15
Mapping 5-15
Multivariate Analysis 5-16
Cluster analysis 5-17
Ordination 5-18
ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS 5-20
Ecologically Sensitive Areas ... 5-20
Environmental Perception ... 5-22
Existing Land-Use Plans 5-23
ECOSYSTEM AND LAND-USE DYNAMICS 5-24
Historical Framework 5-24
Recent Changes in Land Use 5-26
ANALYZING ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS 5-27
Models 5-27
Impact Flowcharts 5-30
Matrix Approach 5-30
SEQUENCE OF ANALYSES 5-30
Projection of Change Without Additional Human
Intervention 5-31
Projection of Changes Accompanying Each
Project Alternative 5-32
v i i i
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Projection of the Incremental and
Synergistic Effects 5-33
SUMMARY 5-34
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 5-36
BIBLIOGRAPHY 5-37
APPENDIX A Land Use Categories in LUNR 5-41
ILLUSTRATION CREDITS 5-42
CASE STUDY -- WOODLANDS 6-1
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE 6-2
a. Ecological units and categories.- .... 6-2
Geology -- 6-2
Groundwater Hydrology -- 6-3
Surface Hydrology -- 6-3
Pedology 6-4
Climatology -- 6-4
Plant Ecology -- 6-4
Loblolly-pine-oak-gum 6-5
Pine-oak-pine 6-6
Mixed-mesic woodlands 6-6
Small stream flood plain or bottom
land vegetation 6-6
Wildlife -- 6-7
b. Identification and characterization of
the dynamic ecological processes.- . . 6-7
c. Description of Historical Stage
Setting 6-10
d. Description of Environmental Goals
Related to the Ecosystem.- 6-11
e. Prediction and Description of Changes
Without Additional Human Intervention
(i.e. No Action Taken).- 6-12
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II. DESCRIPTION OF CHANGES ACCOMPANYING EACH
ALTERNATIVE 6-20
A. Alternative one 6-20
B. Alternative two - 6-20
III. DESCRIPTION OF INCREMENTAL AND SYNERGISTIC
EFFECTS 6_23
IV. RECOMMENDED ALTERNATIVE 6-25
V. REQUIRED OPERATIONED ADJUSTMENTS 6-25
COST OF ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND OF SPACE-
TIME ANALYSIS 6-25
LITERATURE CITED 6.27
METHODOLOGY FOR SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS 7-1
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF CHANGING ECOSYSTEMS .... 7-3
SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS 7 5
Purpose . - 7-7
DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE 7-8
DESCRIPTION DATA BASE 7-9
RESOURCE DATA 7-9
Climate 7-9
Soils. - 7-10
Hydrology and Geology.- 7-10
Aerial Photographs 7-10
Topographic maps 7-10
Satellite Imagery.- 7-11
Species composition studies 7-11
Ecological modeling studies 7-12
Community and successional studies 7-12
HUMAN USE DATA 7 12
ANALYSIS OF THE DESCRIPTIVE DATA BASE 7 13
Mapping. - 7-14
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Diversity Indices ............... 7-15
Cluster analysis ............... 7-16
Matrices . - .................. 7-17
Ordination .................. 7-17
Discriminant Function Analysis. ....... 7-18
Canonical correction analysis ......... 7-19
Impact Flowcharts ............... 7 19
Models .................... 7 20
Ecological Units and Ecological Processes ..... 7-21
Historical Framework ............... 7-24
Recent Changes in Ecological Units.- ..... 7-24
Determination of the space and time of
impact . - .................. 7 25
Environmental Goals ................ 7-26
Projections of Changes Without Additional Human
Intervention .................. 7 27
CHANGES ACCOMPANYING EACH PROJECT ALTERNATIVE . . . 7-31
DESCRIPTION OF THE INCREMENTAL AND SYNERGISTIC
EFFECTS ..................... 7-32
DESCRIPTION OF THE RECOMMENDED ACTION ....... 7-34
REQUIRED OPERATIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ......... 7-35
SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS AND THE PLANNING PROCESS . . . 7-35
LITERATURE CITED ................. 7-38
GLOSSARY
XI
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Name
HOUSTON WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS
August, 1974
Affiliation
Name
Affiliation
Bob Beatson University of Houston Felix Rimberg Institute of Ecology
Joe Birch
Bob Dorney
Frank Fisher
University of Houston Clinton Spots
University of Waterloo
Rice University
Stephanie Gibert University of Montana
and Institute of
Ecology
M. J. Trlica
Environmental
Protection Agency
Colorada State
University
Vicki Watson University of Houston
A. D. Hinckley The Institute of Ecology
David L. Jameson University of Houston
Hal Kibby
Environmental Protection
Agency
Orie Loucks
University of Wisconsin
Larry Marshall University of Houston
William McGrath Raymond, Parish § Pine
N.Y.
Nick Mercuro
Michigan State
University
Richard Park
Fresh Water Institute
Rensselaer Polytechnic
Insyitute
David Renne
Colorado State University
X11
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LAKE GEORGE WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS
Name
Affiliation
David Carlisle
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Robert Dorney
University of Waterloo
Mary Margaret Goodwin
Alexandria, VA 22307
A. Dexter Hinckley
Reston, VA 22070
David L. Jameson
Coastal Center, University of Houston
Harold Kibby
Environmental Protection Agency
Michael Levin
Environmental Research Association
Dale Luecht
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Nicholas Mercuro
The Institute of Ecology
Dennis Reinhardt
Sasaki Associates, Inc.
Carol St. James
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Douglas Smith
Federal Highway Administration
xm
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CONTRIBUTORS
Howard Alden
Colorado State University
Arthur D. Hasler
University of Wisconsin
Stanley Auerbach
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
D. D. Huff
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Joe B. Birch
University of Houston
Kent Bridges
University of Hawaii
Nicholas Clesceri
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Dennis Cooke
Kent State University
Charles P. Cooper
California State University
William Cooper
Michigan State University
Cal DeWitt
University of Wisconsin
Diane Donley
Environmental Defence Fund
Gordon Enk, Director
The Institute of Man and Science
James J. Ferris
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Gus Frug
University of Texas
Lynn Johnson
The Center for Environment and
Man, Inc.
Cyril Kabat
Department of Natural Resources,
Wisconsin
Helmut Lieth
University of North Carolina
William E. Marlatt
Colorado State University
Larry Marshall
University of Houston
William Milstead
University of Missouri
Russel Moore
Colorado State University
Theordore Pankowski
Howard, Needles, Tammer § Bergendor
David Renne
Battle Institute
Walter E. Westman
University of Queensland
Martin Witkamp
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
xiv
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
1 1 Interaction of urbanization processes 15
1 2 Space Time Analysis 1-14
2-1 Hierarchy of land-use transfers in LAND .... 2-3
7
3- 1 Biomass (g dry wt/m ) of normal and perturbed
ecosystem model 3-16
4- 1 Forest Ecosystem Biomass Budget 4-22
4- 2 Biomass Flow Matrix 4-25
4- 3 Open Water Model. Pathways of biomass
transfer 4-26
4- 4 Interactions of Clean 4-30
4- 5 Stream Model Transfer Matrix 4-31
4- 6 System Matrix for River 4-32
4- 7 Regional Succession Model 4-36
5- 1 Comprehensive sewerage study map 5-2
5- 2 Approximate location of suggested highway in
town of Brunswick 5-2
5- 3 Simplified flowchart for generalized
methodology 5-3
5- 4 LUNR overlay showing land uses 5-4
5- 5 Print of U-2 Infrared Imagery 5-5
5- 6 Examples of available forest statistics .... 5-6
5- 7 Fish species sought by fishermen at four
lake study areas (Kooyoomjian, 1974) .... 5-7
5- 8 Location of stocked streams in Warren County,
New York 5-7
5- 9 Lake George biomass data . 5-8
5-10 Economic Viability of Farm Areas in New York
State 5-9
5-11 An Example of Soil Usage Information 5-9
5-12 Land Capability in Rensselaer Bounty, New York . 5-10
5-13 USGS Topographic Map for Brunswick, New York . . 5-11
xv
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
— r
5-14 Slope Map for Brunswick, New York ....... 5-11
5-15 Map showing Impediment to Growth in
Lake George Area 5-11
5-16 Groundwater Recharge Area, Town of Lake
George, New York 5-12
5-17 Surficial geology map of Capital District . . . 5-12
5-18 Location of Glacial Sand Deposits in the
Capital District 5-13
5-19 Weather Records 5-15
5-20 PLANMAP Output showing Forest Cover in the
Lake George Region 5-16
5-21 Comparison of Clusters of Cells and Clusters
of Land Uses 5-17
5-22 Environmental Groups of Diatoms Samples .... 5-18
5-23 Ordination of Diatom Samples and Clusters . . . 5-19
5-24 Map of Diatom Groups in Lake George 5-19
5-25 The Locations of Unique and Critical Natural
Areas in the Town of Lake George 5-20
5-26 Location of Parks and Forest-Preserve Tracts
in the Lake George Region 5-21
5-27 Historic Houses and Sites in the Brunswick
Area 5-21
5-28 Scenic Vistas Worthy of Protection 5-22
5-29 Survey Results Indicating Effect of Water
Quality on Recreational Usage at Oligotropic
and Eutrophic Lakes 5-23
5-30 Planning Documents, Pertaining to the Lake
George Area 5-24
5-31 Adirondack Park Agency Land Use Plan 5-24
5-32 Original Plat Map of the Lake George Area . . . 5-25
5-33 Distribution of Relative Abundance of
Eutrophic Indicator Diatom Species 5-26
xvi
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LIST OF FIGURES (CONT'D)
Number Page
5-34 Medium-Density Residential Property Equation
5-35 Hierarchy of land-use transfers in LAND .... 5-28
5-36 Principal Compartments in CLEANER 5-29
5-37 Predicted changes in algae and Secchi disc
readings 5-31
5-38 An example of part of an impact flowchart ... 5-32
5-39 Segment of Impact Flowchart with Incremental
Effect Resulting in "Gentleman Farmer"
Environmental Mosaic 5-33
5-40 Flowchart of Case Study - Inputs to Land . . . 5-34
5-41 Flowchart of Case Study - Output from Land . . 5-35
6- 1 Sample food chain 6-9
7- 1 Space-Time Analysis 76
7- 2 Analysis of Existing Trends Using Ecosystem
Models 7-28
7- 3 Generalized 201 Process 7-36
xvu
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LIST OF TABLES
Number Page
3- 1 Lake Wingra 3-9
3-2 Monthly Nutrient Budgets for N and P in Northwest Bay
Brook Watershed, Lake George, NY . 3-11
3- 3 Monthly Nutrient Budgets for N and P in Hague
Brook Watershed, Lake George, NY 3-12
3- 4 Monthly Nutrient Budgets for N and P in West
Brook Watershed, Lake George, NY ...... 3-13
3- 5 Nutrient Budget for N and P in Precipitation
and Runoff 3-14
3- 6 Dissolved Nutrient Export from Forested
(Undisturbed) and Disturbed Ecosystems . . . 3-15
5- 1 Estimated Phosphorus and Nitrogen Budget
for Lake George, New York 5-15
6- 1 Sample Water Budget 6-4
6- 2 Land Use in Houston, Texas 6-13
6- 3 Pollutants/10,000 Units of 33,000 persons . . . 6-14
6- 4 Water Pollution and Erosion 6-15
6- 5 Air and Water Pollution 6-16
6- 6 Comparison of the Productivity of 'Natural'
and Residential Area at Lake Wingra,
Wisconsin 6-19
6- 7 Proposed Land Use 6-21
6- 8 Air and Water Pollution Resulting from
Proposed Land Use 6-22
6- 9 Environmental Impact Assessment § Planning
Costs 6-26
xvi
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INTRODUCTION
David L. Jameson
During the past three decades, the U.S. has experienced an
increasing trend towards urbanization that has been at the same
time both systematic and uneven. Outlying portions of urban
areas have been growing while the population numbers in the
central areas of cities have been leveling off and in some cases
actually declined. This growth pattern is consequent to the
movement of people and jobs to suburbia and exurbia. The result
has been the evolution of urban communities from small towns into
cities, metropolitan areas, and now urban regions. This immense
growth has brought forth a vast array of goods and services, an
ever expanding spatial distribution of people, as well as a host
of urban problems. Because of the complexity and urgency of
urban problems, the urban ecosystem approach has been developed
to provide a comprehensive and interdisciplinary model to aid us
in studying the complicated nature of our cities (Stearns and
Montag, 1975).
The inexorable trend toward very large, extremely complex
urban places is a result of forces whose origins lie in the
political, economic, and social systems of our society. Of
particular significance for this study, two forces emerge as
important factors in promoting or sustaining urban growth:
a) population growth, and b) the expansion of public investments
such as highways and wastewater treatment facilities. An essen-
tial coupling between urban highways and urban-suburban growth
patterns has long been recognized. The linkage between them can
be assessed from two, quite opposite, theoretical positions.
One theory asserts that new or improved highways are a response
1-1
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to expressed demand. The alternative theory suggests that the
linkage is developmental in that new transport facilities
generate certain patterns of urban growth and development.
The position taken here is that both development and demand
processes are taking place, and the expanded construction of
highways and wastewater treatment facilities will be associated
with the accommodation or promotion of urban regional growth.
This growth is significant in that the activities consequent to
it impact upon the natural ecosystem.
Clearly the ultimate source of ecosystem impacts is growth
in the numbers of people and growth in the amount of resources
required by each person. Impacts on the ecosystem result from
changing use of land as it is converted from natural areas to
agriculture and/or suburban, commercial, industrial uses, from
the migration toward, from, and between urban centers, and from
the movement of people from the urbanized areas into the sur-
rounding countryside for recreational activity. Indirect impacts
result from the promotion of growth, development, and urbaniza-
tion which result from some population already being present.
Areas may be overpopulated with respect to resource distri-
bution and may be overpopulated with respect to the amount of
resources. When population growth is stimulated at rates greater
than assured resource availability, a number of environmental
impacts become apparent and many of these impacts are on the
ecosystem. Open areas become trash dumps and streams; rivers
and lakes absorb pollution at levels far higher than in areas
where social amenities are maintained. While it is not always
easy to determine the exact amount of impact on the ecosystem
that will occur because of the lack of available resources for
the number of people, it is clear that, when population growth
is stimulated by wastewater treatment facilities or by highways,
both social and ecosystem impacts will occur.
The significance of secondary impacts has been stated
explicitly by Robert H. Twiss. "Environmental impacts are seldom
important solely in terms of their direct physical effects.
1-2
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That is, if a road is built into a new area, the soil erosion and
visual scars are important, but not as important as the 'bomb-
baret' effect at the end of the road that generates new housing,
followed eventually by the need for many other services. Most
of the people involved recognize that the question is not whether
we should treat secondary effects, but rather, given that secondary
effects are the most important of the two, how we compute and
weigh them."
The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 in Section 102
(c) requires all agencies of the Federal government to:
"(C) Include in every recommendation or report on proposals
for legislation and other major Federal actions signifi
cantly affecting the quality of the human environment, a
detailed statement by the responsible official on
(i) The environmental impact of the proposed action,
(ii) Any adverse environmental effects which cannot be
avoided should the proposal be implemented,
(iii) Alternatives to the proposed action,
(iv) The relationship between local short-term uses of
man's environment and the maintenance and enhancement
of long-term productivity, and
(v) Any irreversible and irretrievable commitments of
resources which would be involved in the proposed
action, should it be implemented."
Additionally, the Council on Environmental Quality published
guidelines (38 Fed. Reg 20550-20562, August 1, 1973) which
indicate in Section 1500.8 (a) (3) "(ii): Secondary or indirect,
as well as primary or direct, consequences for the environment
should be included in the analysis". Further, Preparation of
Environmental Impact Statements includes a definition of secondary
impacts (40 CFR Part 6, 40FR16814 (April 14, 1975) in Section
6.304 (2) and (3).
"(2) Primary impacts are those that can be
attributed directly to the proposed action. If the
action is a field experiment, materials introduced
into the environment which might damage certain plant
communities or wildlife species would be a primary
1-3
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impact. If the action involves construction of a
facility, such as a sewage treatment works, an office
building or a laboratory, the primary impacts of the
action would include the environmental impacts
related to construction and operation of the facility
and land use changes at the facility site.
(3) Secondary impacts are indirect or induced
changes. If the action involves construction of a
facility, the secondary impacts would include the
environmental impacts related to:
(i) induced changes in the pattern of land
use, population density and related effects on air
and water quality or other natural resources;
(ii) increased growth at a faster rate than
planned for or above the total level planned by the
existing community."
With mounting concern over the secondary effects on natural
and agricultural environments, particularly from urbanization, it
has become apparent that an objective, analytical strategy is
necessary to assess the subtle, but far-reaching, impacts of
wastewater treatment facilities (WTF) and highways. Because
such a strategy could profit from recent interdisciplinary model
ing experience and findings in ecosystem science, The Institute
of Ecology (TIE) was given the charge of developing a generalized
methodology. Specific attention was to be given to one of the
biome types modeled by the U.S. International Biological Program
(IBP). To assess these impacts, we have relied on an urban
ecosystem approach and, though this schematic is highly simpli
fied, it has served an heuristic function.
1-4
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POPULATION
GROWTH
(2)
(1)
INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENTS
(3)
URBANIZATION
ECOSYSTEM
VARIABLES
(5)
(E)
(2)
Figure 1 1. Interaction of urbanization processes.
The fundamental component of the approach is the process of
urbanization. The approach also focuses on the reciprocal nature
of factors that affect urbanization (1) (2) (3), as well as the
impact urbanization has upon the ecosystem (4) (5).
(1J Population growth enhances urbanization,and, at the same
time, urbanization may influence population growth.
Population growth places demands upon society for
roads and wastewater treatment facilities (i.e.,
public investments), and, at the same time, the provi
sion of the facility expands the capacity of society
to accomodate high levels of population.
The continuing process of urbanization via population
growth and socioeconomic pressures creates a demand
for facilities,while the facility enables the urban
region to accomodate more people.
The facilities have a primary (direct and indirect)
impact upon the natural ecosystem.
Urbanization induced by population growth and expanded
facilities impacts the natural ecosystem. These second-
ary impacts are the focus of this study.
A missing link to be provided by this study by means
of operational changes.
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
1-5
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Continued population growth is dependent on the availability
of resources, the most important of which, for human health,
includes man's dependency on larger (spatially speaking) eco-
systems for food, fiber, energy, and housing. Reductions in man's
ability to manage a portion of the ecosystem for the production
of essential biological commodities will serve to inhibit the
rate of growth of human welfare; that is, a feedback does exist
between man and the availability of his resources. Modern tech-
nology has relieved man of much of his dependency on natural
sources for the comforts of the physical environment such as
temperature and water. However, modern technology cannot decrease
man's dependency on the ecosystem but it can, and indeed it has,
decreased the influence of the feedback in depressing population
growth, public facility investments? and urbanization. Period!
cally the balance between available resources and the consuming
population will be restored, even in the case of modern man,
especially if systems requiring sophisticated management break down
for whatever reason.
Planners, engineers, and other components of the decision
making process have developed techniques, models, methodologies,
flow charts, and programs to achieve their results. The major
development of ecosystem models has been the result of work
supported through the studies of the International Biological
Program although many others are useful. This report attempts
to prepare and document a methodology which integrates the models
of the ecologist into the decision-making process.
The following report provides a review of various ecological
modeling efforts which can provide a nucleus for additional
effort. Some of the literature describing impacts on ecosystems
is reviewed and an expansion of the proposed methodology is
detailed. Several case studies are presented separately to suggest
ways the methodology and the report may be used.
Demonstration of the linkage between urbanization and ecosystem
variables requires interaction between engineers, planners,
ecologists and others and like any multidisciplinary project,
reaching the objective is a "very hard thing to do."
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THE INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY
At the time this contract was initiated (summer, 1974), the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Council on Environmental
Quality (CEQ) , and the Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD) had ongoing research studying the cost of sprawl and the
secondary effects of highways and wastewater treatment and collec-
tion facilities. These studies explored the impacts of highways
or wastewater treatment and collection facilities on patterns of
urbanization, and how various urbanization patterns affect human
activities, such as commuting time. However, the consequences
of these actions on the natural ecosystems, of which man is a part,
had not been explored.
For this undertaking, the EPA turned to The Institute of
Ecology (TIE) to obtain this analysis of the secondary impacts of
urbanization on agricultural and non-urban ecosystems. TIE is
a federation of more than 100 western hemisphere institutions
engaged in ecological research. TIE serves as the initiator and
coordinator of multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional projects
that are too large and complex for one researcher or one research
organization.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
Presently, the EPA, among its many functions, reviews
Environmental Impact Statements (EIS's) on highways and prepares
EIS's on wastewater treatment facilities. The EPA, recognizing
the variety of quality and content of the EIS's provided to them
for review and the difficulty of performing adequate review, has
asked TIE to help to 1) determine which natural processes appear
most susceptible to impacts of a) increased urbanization in general
and b) secondary effects of public infrastructure investments,
specifically highways and wastewater collection and treatment
facilities; and 2) develop a generalized methodology describing
effects of publicly supported actions (i.e., infrastructure invest-
ments) upon natural ecosystems. Specifically, the tasks to be
performed were as follows:
1-7
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(1) Impact Identification In one of the biome types
(specifically the eastern deciduous forest), TIE
shall determine which natural processes appear to be
most susceptible to the impacts of
aj increased urbanization in general
b) secondary effects of public infrastructure
investments (e . g ., wastewater treatment
facilities, highways).
(2) Quantify Characteristics - Document and identify
characteristics capable of ready monitoring from studies
that have undertaken to quantify or qualitatively
describe changes identified in Task (1) .
(3) Hypothesis and Methodology Formation Develop a
generalized methodology to describe effects of Task
CD.
(4) Documenting the Methodology - Prepare a final report
setting forth finding of Tasks (1) and (2) and fully
document the proposed methodology.
(5) Testing the Methodology Undertake one or more case
studies to validate and amplify the methodology.
THE INTERNATIONAL BIOLOGICAL PROGRAM (IBP)
In 1959, biologists [members of the International Union of
Biological Sciences (IUBS) and the International Council of
Scientific Unions (ICSU)], recognizing the need for cooperative
international study of the world wide problems of resource manage-
ment and human adaptability to environmental change, proposed
an international program of biological studies concerned with
productivity, man, and the environment which might yield a world-
wide consensus on goals for the benefit of humanity as well as
produce some solutions to environmental problems. A Special
Committee for the International Biological Program (IBP) autho-
rized by the ICSU in 1964 has directed this program. The first
U.S. program became operational in 1967 and was endorsed by
Congress in 1970.
1-8
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The goals of USIBP concerned furthering scientific training
and research in resources management and developing international
exchanges of the results. The scientific objective was to
improve understanding of ecosystems by:
formulating a basis for understanding the interaction of
components of representative biological systems;
exploiting this understanding to increase biological
productivity;
providing the basis for predicting consequences of environ-
mental stress, both natural and manmade;
enhancing man's ability to manage natural resources;
advancing knowledge of man's genetic, physiological and behav-
ioral adaptation. (U.S. participation in IBP, 1974).
The USIBP program was divided into two components: environ-
mental management (studies of productivity and natural resources)
and human adaptability (studies of man's adaptability to changing
environments). The former component is of greatest interest to
this study. Its major accomplishments grew out of the analysis
of ecosystems. These analyses initially developed as integrated
research programs in five biomes (grasslands, eastern deciduous
forest, desert, coniferous forest, and tundra). The purpose of
the studies was to advance understanding of ecosystems by measuring
and modeling the rates of change in system components, to expand
the data base on whole systems, to increase the reliability of
production estimates and to improve the scientific basis of
resource management.
In addition to the five biome studies, the ecosystem analysis
program focused on the origin and structure of ecosystems and
the biological productivity of upwelling ecosystems. Other studies
included marine mammals, aerobiology, biological control of
insect pests, conservation of plant genetic material, and conserva-
tion of ecosystems.
In order to develop a system of equations capable of describ-
ing ecosystems, IBP workers have concentrated on physical and biolo
gical processes: H^O and mineral transport, photosynthesis,
1-9
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respiration, grazing, production, decomposition, and mineraliza-
tion. Several years were spent on processes, including the
formulation of mathematical models for later analysis of entire
ecosystems.
The biome studies have contributed to an understanding both
of the manner in which basic biological, physical, and chemical
processes regulate ecosystems and of the structural or internal
regulatory mechanisms within the system as a whole. Comparison
of stored carbon pools and their rates of transformation
illustrate the properties of a variety of ecosystems. These
and other studies may be useful in evaluating potential hazards
to ecosystems on the basis of minimal field measurements and a
knowledge of system properties rather than on the basis of
massive field studies.
Most of the progress made by USIBP concerned developing
systems models and an understanding of ecosystems productivity
and the physical and chemical parameters of ecosystems and their
related processes. Such studies concentrate on the means by
which structural characteristics and systems properties govern
functional characteristics such as the flow of energy, cycling
of materials, and responses to perturbations. Complex mathe-
matical modeling of these characteristics are a necessary part
of understanding the dynamic behavior of systems. Recent advances
in systems sciences were used by IBP workers to great advantage.
A small workshop held in the summer of 1974 defined problems
and identified research staff and ecologists. A staff meeting
in the winter of 1974 resulted in a preliminary methodology. A
revised methodology and a working paper were prepared and 200
copies distributed to ecologists in the 100 institutions that
participate in The Institute of Ecology. Another workshop was
held in the late summer of 1975. The final document includes
the suggestions of the workshop participants,and those con-
tributed through the mail, and those resulting from the formal
T.I.E. review process.
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METHODOLOGY
[EXECUTIVE SUMMARY]
No widely applicable general methodology for preparing or
reviewing Environmental Impact Statements now exists and those
which have been developed are only approximations of the ideal.
However, methodologies for impact assessment share certain common
characteristics. To analyze an impact, they describe the project
or program which represents the source of changes and the system
or environment which will be perturbed or modified. While
measurements of causes and effects can make the analysis more
quantitative and clear, statements of assumptions can make it
more open and objective. The analysis is usually qualitative
and of necessity has many subjective elements that result from
conscious or unconscious value judgements which affect the
selection or weighting of factors to be considered.
Methodologies now available fall into broad categories:
maps, matrices, networks or graphs, and models (Warner and
Preston, 1974). Dorney (1973) suggests that the use of a team
of experts or specialists may provide the best, quick, cheap and
direct analysis of single effects. An appropriately selected
team would provide the latest information and group dynamics
would provide the necessary systems analysis. Some methodologies,
of course, use elements from two or more categories; while these
hybrids have not been common in published methodologies, they
are the usual approaches used in the preparation of EIS.
Warner and Preston (1974, p. 1) claim "There is no single
'best' methodology for environmental impact assessment." Addi
tionally, the seven criteria for evaluation which they suggest
provide no clear choice of methods for the analysis of the
secondary effects of urbanization in the Eastern Deciduous Forest
Biome. Armstrong (1972) thinks that an approach can be developed
which uses the best components of each of the available methods
and calls this "Space Time Analysis." Frug ejt al_. (1974) and
Rowe et al. (.1974) appear to have had some success in impact
1-11
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assessment using an approach which combines the resources of
several methods. We have relied on this approach.
A generally applied "systems approach" to urban ecosystems
combining maps, matrices, networks, and models in a Space-Time
Analysis provides the informational content needed by the non-
scientist decision-makers while assuring the precision and
confidence intervals desired by the professionals. Additionally,
this approach allows new techniques, new models, and new ideas
to be added to the system without discarding previous work or
requiring a complete overhaul. In short, the methodology is
able to evolve.
The information obtained by projecting changes in ecosystems
is significant for Environmental Impact Statement writing and
review. The quality of our environment relies on the EIS process
as an informational feedback loop before the project is undertaken
The existing economic and political institutions are not designed
to collect or process this class of information. Consequently,
the EIS procedure provides the requisite information by institu-
tionalizing a negative feedback loop to anticipate and assess
impacts. This methodology is an attempt to expand the information
to be assessed--information that may provide a better guide for
the full consideration of the dynamic environmental and ecolog-
ical processes when highway and wastewater treatment facilities
are proposed.
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SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS
Purpose. The purpose of the methodology is to provide
an analysis of the direct impact of urbanization (i.e., the
indirect or secondary impacts of public investments, e.g.,
Waste Treatment Facilities and Highways) on ecosystems and
agricultural systems. Consulting specialists are assumed to
have the requisite knowledge and experience with the local
situation to identify the appropriate techniques.
The proposed Space-Time Analysis requires several general
steps .
I. Description of the existing state including
a. identification and location of ecological
units and categories
b. identification and characterization of the
dynamic ecological processes
c. description of the historical stages and
setting
d. identification of environmental goals.
e. projection and description of changes which
will occur without additional human interven-
tion (no action)
II. Description of each project alternative and its
consequences
III. Description of incremental and synergistic effects
accompanying each project alternative
IV. Recommendation of a specific action
V. Statement of required operational adjustments which
result from the recommended project.
1 13
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FIGURE 1-2, SPACE TIME ANALYSIS
ECOSYSTEM
RESOURCES
ecologists
models
studies
DESCRIPTIVE
DATA BASE
PUBLIC INPUT
HISTORICAL
SETTING
AND
STAGES
ECOSYSTEM
GOALS
ECOSYSTEM VARIABLES AND PROCESSES
SOCIETY
NEEDS
\f
RESOURCE
CAPABILITY
UNITS
(planners)
FACILITY
ALTERNATIVES
(engineers)
SOCIAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
EXISTING RATES
OF CHANGE
FACILITY
BYPRODUCTS
PROJECTED
CATEGORIES
AND
PROCESSES
IN THE
ECOSYSTEM
PROJECTED RESULTS
OF PROJECT
ALTERNATIVES
TO THE
f 7t ECOSYSTEM
OTHER FACILITIES
WTF OR HWY
INCREMENTAL
AND
SYNERGISTIC
-------
DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE
The existing regionally specific data base constitutes the
basis for identification of ecological units. While regional
computerized data banks are not yet common, their expanding use
for planning suggests that they will likely be available in areas
subject to rapid urbanization. Aerial photographs, satellite
imagery, topographic maps, soil studies, regional planning
documents, zoning ordinances, surface and soil hydrology, drainage
patterns, water quality, air, water, and solid waste pollution
sources, vegetation types, highway access, recreation access,
climate and existing land use and economic characteristics provide
useful values which are frequently available in banks or in the
public sector (library shelf, government records).
Planners, engineers, developers and others use a variety
of techniques to organize and classify resource and human use
data to determine the resource capability of a given site; maps,
matrices, cluster analysis, gradient analysis, ordination tech-
niques, and discriminant analysis may afford useful synthesis.
These studies are typically economically oriented with human use
criteria emphasized to provide the basis for the identification
of resource capability units. One or two ecologists might
participate in a team effort for the determination of resource
capability units. Ecologists would use a subset of the same data
with emphasis on resource criteria, take into account local
site specific factors, and use the same techniques to identify
the presence and distribution of significant ecological units.
A team of ecologists will be required to identify significant
ecological units because the selection is dependent on the
identification of ecological variables and processes some of
which may be highly site-specific.
Use of all the available variables in every impact analysis
will be inappropriate. Some are extremely difficult to estimate
or to interpret, and working ecosystem models using some are not
universally available. However, the two workshops identified
1-15
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some ecosystem characteristics which should be discussed in every
analysis of the secondary impacts of a Wastewater Treatment
Facility or Highway; these are:
I. Microclimate: including changes in temperature,
precipitation, and wind velocity
II. Soil: including changes in moisture type and
erodibility
III. Hydrology: including changes in surface and subsurface
waters using hydrographs of discharge vs. time and
estimates of quantity and direction of ground water
flow
IV. Species composition: including changes in distribu-
tion and abundance, and demographic characteristics
of species (age of stands, seasonal phenology)
V. Food chains: including nutrients and changes in
structure and relations with emphasis on decomposers
VI Succession: changes in the seasonal, gradient, and
trend characteristics of ecosystem, agricultural,
and urbanized situations
VII. Interrelations between terrestrial and aquatic:
including changes in material and energy flow and
species involved.
Any locality has an existing set of ecological units, many
of which can be identified by terms familiar to the decision-
maker. The categorization and presentation of these ecological
units should emphasize ecosystem types (in addition to human
activity), and presentation of the units and projected changes
can be by sequential maps or by maps with overlays. One available
method is described by Dansereau (1974). The analysis should
highlight those seasonal, successional, and long term trend
characteristics which are most subject (sensitive) to change.
The probable course of urban development both with and with-
out the project can be detailed by planners and engineers. The
time of that development and the area impacted constitute important
inputs to the ecological analysis; thus both time and space
1-16
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boundaries and relations are significant. For each ecological
unit, potential changes should be considered in light of
specifically indicated time and space boundaries to identify how
significant their effects would be compared to the effects which
would result as consequences of the proposed human intervention.
The team of ecologists should:
1. Develop a comprehensive checklist of the potentially
available and needed information to determine the
ecological units and the ecosystem structure and
functions. Ecological goals, environmental preserves,
parks, endangered species, and the historical stages
and setting should be indicated by sociological,
paleontological, and archaelogical studies. The list
should be regional- and site-specific.
2. Identify the natural forces producing change including
succession and seasons (trends and cycles) in the
variables: 1) ecosystem variables and processes,
2) existing sources of human interventions, 3) unknown
consequences of various indentifiable factors, and
4) variability of unidentified source.
3. Where possible, identify the organic and non-toxic
assimilative capacities of various ecosystem units
for each substance with particular emphasis on federal,
state, or local laws, standards, and regulations.
4. Determine the models, the processes, and variables
which should be available and appear to explain the
observable rates of change in the ecosystem with
particular emphasis on seasonal successional and trend
changes. Determine the models to be used, the cost
of computer runs, the driving variables to be used
and the range of expected results.
5. Examine the available data and determine whether or
not the resolution (e.g. grid size), precision,
variability, and consistency are adequate.
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6. Determine whether or not the data actually available
are likely to be sufficient to make necessary pro-
jections in changes of amount of ecological categories,
variable values, and process rates. Are all the data
necessary? Considerable effort should be made to reduce
the original checklist to a small necessary and suf-
ficient set of characteristics.
7. Determine what new data are needed and estimate both
the cost and likelihood of obtaining that data.
8. Develop ad hoc analyses appropriate to the site-
specific special conditions.
9. Perform the necessary analyses to describe the exist-
ing dynamic aspects of the ecosystem with particular
emphasis on the projection of the change which will
occur without additional human intervention.
DESCRIPTION OF CHANGES ACCOMPANYING EACH PROJECT ALTERNATIVE:
For any facility there may be a number of alternative
sitings and potential development patterns. The urban develop-
ment pattern will have greater and more long-term impacts than
the proposed facility on the ecological units and thus on the
ecosystem processes. Therefore; the possible development
patterns and the impacts from them need to be emphasized in the
description.
Chemical, physical, and biological changes constitute inputs
to the models describing the ecological variables. The linkages
between the planner's ability to predict the developmental pat-
tern, the engineer's ability to project the physical and chemical
characteristics which arise from that pattern, and the biologist's
ability to predict biological changes and the models which will
use these various inputs are still weak. Nevertheless, the state
of the art is improving rapidly within each component, and inter-
disciplinary systems approaches accompanied by appropriate
linkages of ecosystem models and model components should improve
the ability of the overall process to project changes.
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DESCRIPTION OF INCREMENTAL AND SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS
Wastewater treatment facilities and highways and the accom-
panying urbanization tend to accumulate in pockets and along
corridors, streams, or lakes. The incremental effect of one more
urbanized area along the stream may be more than that of any
single previous unit because of the accumulative impact of
materials and energy being added to the ecosystem. Each newly
added urban area increases the technological requirements to
import resources and export or recycle wastes and places more
stress on the ecosystem.
Additionally, when two or more substances are added to a
system, synergistic effects (non-additive) are frequently
encountered. Thus, the projection of impacts from one type of
urbanization will accompany the projected results of other urban-
ization .
DESCRIPTION OF THE RECOMMENDED ACTION
The sum total of all social, economic, and environmental
factors must determine the selection of a specific recommendation
for human intervention by means of a public investment in a waste-
water treatment facility or highways. The land use and develop-
ment patterns that result from this recommendation will result in
specific inputs to the ecosystem models, which can then be used
to describe for the decision-maker the specific ecosystem changes
which will follow the recommended action. If the previous sec-
tions have been properly presented, the inputs of the final choice
should be summarized by reference to graphs, tables, charts, and
maps.
REQUIRED OPERATIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WHICH RESULT FROM THE
RECOMMENDED ACTION
The decision-maker needs to know the necessary legislative
(state, council of governments, county, and city) adjustments to
assure that the human capacities of the facility will not be
1-1'
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exceeded and produce additional impacts on the ecosystem.
Further, he needs to know the ecosystem impacts likely to be
encountered if the necessary legislative adjustments are achieved.
He needs to know if new technologies are required to protect the
ecosystem and the consequencies of failure of these technologies.
He needs to know whether or not adjustments are required to
provide for the synergistic and accumulative effects indicated
by the selected alternative.
SUMMARY
The proposed Space-Time Analysis is designed to emphasize
the dynamic nature of the ecosystem. Ecosystems are constantly
changing but man's activities may greatly alter the rate of change
The space throughout which the facility will have impact is
delineated and described in three dimensions and the projected
changes during time are indicated. Projections include the case
of no additional human intervention and each alternative inter-
vention.
Existing (on shelf) models, maps, data bases, and regional
plans are used to determine the presence and distribution of the
ecological units which best describe and identify the potential
change. A nesting of ecological units is vital since airsheds,
water sheds, and jurisdictional boundaries differ. The descrip-
tion of the existing ecosystem requires a consideration of the
structural and functional characteristics, with particular
emphasis on cyclic (seasonal) phenomena and on existing trends
in the system. Changes in each of the characteristics can be
projected on the basis of existing ecosystem and socio-economic
trends and because of actions which are already predictable (or
at least projectable), e.g., human population growth, ecological
succession. The description of the several possible human
interventions that would alter the ecosystem should include a
comparison of the diverse results which are possible from these
1-20
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alternatives. While the action recommended should follow logi
cally from a discussion of the above factors, the summary should
also clearly indicate why "no action" is not satisfactory.
Almost any infrastructure investment, and particularly a
waste treatment facility or a segment of a highway, makes an
incremental contribution to impacts which may not be clearly
evident from the impacts of the specific project itself. These
incremental effects need to be identified and discussed. Addi
tionally, potential and assured synergistic effects, which will
result because of the interaction between various human inter-
ventions, should be fully considered.
In its most simplified form, the methodology offered here
should be construed by the practitioner as an "overall approach,'
"a way to view your effort," and/or "as a source of formulating
questions to which you will obtain much needed answers."
1-21
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LITERATURE CITED
Armstrong, J. 1972. A systems approach to environmental impact.
in Environmental impact analysis: philosophy and methods.
R. B. Ditton and T. L. Goodale eds. The University of
Wisconsin Sea Grant publication WIS-SG-72-111.
Dansereau, P. Biogeographie dynamique due Quebec. In Estudes
sur la Geographic du Canada: Quebec. F. Grenier Ed. The
University of Toronto Press.
Dorney, R. S. 1973. Role of ecologists as consultants in urban
planning and design. Human Ecology 1: 183-200.
Frug, G., W. L. Fisher, K. Haynes, J. E. Hazleton, J. F. Malina,
F. D. Masch, C. Oppenheimer and J. C. Moseley. 1973.
Establishment of operational guidelines for Texas coastal
zone management. Interim Report, Summary. The University
of Texas at Austin.
Rowe, P. G. and D. L. Williams. 1975. Environmental analysis
for development planning, Chambers County, Texas. Technical
Report, Vol. 1: 1 528 appendices.
Stearns, F. and T. Montag. 1975. The urban ecosystem: a holistic
approach. Dowden, Hutchinson and Ross, Inc. Stroudsburg, PA.
Twiss, R. H. 1974. Linking the EIS and the planning process.
in Environment impact assessment: guidelines and commentary.
T. G. Dickert and K. R. Domeny, Eds. University Extension,
University of California, Berkeley.
Warner, M. L. and E. H. Preston. 1974. A review of environmental
impact assessment methodologies. U. S. Government Printing
Office. Wash. EPA-600/5-74-002.
Preparation of Environmental Impact Statements: Guidelines.
38/Fec. Reg. 20550-20562. August 1, 1973.
U. S. Participation in the International Biological Program. Rept.
6. U. S. National Committee for the International Biology
Program, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
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A MODEL FOR PROJECTING LAND USES AND THEIR IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS
David P. Carlisle and Richard A. Park*
INTRODUCTION
Under the terms of its contract with the Environmental
Protection Agency, The Institute of Ecology was to indicate the
feasibility of using the International Biological Program (IBP)
modeling experience in assessing the environmental impacts of
wastewater treatment facilities (WTF) and highways. The initial
review of IBP models suggested that none was directly applicable
to the goal of general impact assessment. However, the IBP
Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome modeling effort, including both
terrestrial and aquatic models, came closest to the goal. There-
fore, it was agreed that a terrestrial model based on prior IBP
models would be developed for the Lake George, New York, area -
one of the Biome sites. The result was LAND (Land-use ANalytical
Descriptor).
Because of financial and time limitations, it was
necessary to concentrate our research effort on LAND's theoreti-
cal structure. The model has been conceptualized and programmed,
but it has not been fully calibrated. Although LAND is a
generalized model, it is intended only as an example of what can
be adapted from existing models at the regional level.
MODELING GOALS
As described in the case study, which was based in part
on LAND, any model used in the preparation of an environmental
impact statement (EIS) should be capable of application to each
step of the space-time analysis (see METHODOLOGY). That is, it
should be able to project the effects of: 1) continued develop-
mental trends, 2) development stimulated by the proposed public
* Center for Urban Environmental Studies and Department of Geology,
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12181.
2-1
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investment, and 3) further public investment necessitated by the
resulting urbanization.
Furthermore, the model should be capable of the spatial
resolution required by the EIS. That means it should yield
projections for each drainage basin, ecosystem, and residential
and commercial area, taking into consideration site-specific
characteristics.
Ideally, the model should represent a melding of land-
use changes and ecosystem responses so that subtle, but important,
impacts on biotic productivity, diversity, and uniqueness can be
projected.
BASIS FOR MODEL
LAND is a manifestation of the IBP modeling philosophy
as applied to the goals cited above. Most influential were the
land-use transfer approach of Hett (1971), the forest-succession
empiricisms of Shugart, Crow and Hett (1973), and the environ-
mental-management perspective of Park, Scavia and Clesceri
(1975).
In order to satisfy the spatial requirements for assess-
9
ing secondary impacts, LAND employs a Km grid. This permits the
examination of effects on individual drainage basins, mountains,
habitats and villages. It also enabled us to use an existing re-
tional data base, LUNR, which contains land-use data on a Km^
grid.
The temporal requirements were satisfied by use of a
yearly time-step, with calibration data for three time periods
at ten-year intervals. These data included the LUNR data, based
on 1968 aerial photography,and interpretations of 1948 USDA Soil
Conservation photos and 1958 NYS Department of Environmental Con-
servation photos. Therefore, it is possible to calibrate the
model for twenty years and then efficiently run it for fifty
years or more.
Ecologic realism was incorporated by using a modifica-
tion of the forest succession model of Shugart, Crow and Hett
2-2
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(1973). Furthermore, linear transformations of land-use categories
and forest types to animal habitats are being incorporated so that
the presence or absence of key species can be projected. By means
of known relationships of nutrient loadings to land use and popu-
lation density (for example, Shannon and Brezonik, 1972) LAND
can be linked to the aquatic ecosystem model CLEANER (Park, Scavia
and Clesceri, 1975).
STRUCTURE OF MODEL
Development of the model was based on recognition of the
fact that both established trends and additional infrastructure
investment result in land use changes; these changes are mediated
by site characteristics; and the changes, in turn, have a direct
or indirect effect on the functioning of natural and agricultural
ecosystems.
LAND consists of a series of simultaneous differential
equations of simple form. A hierarchy of land-use and vegeta-
tional-type transfers is assumed. For each transfer there is a
Figure 2-1. Hierarchy of land-use transfers in LAND
r\
mean transfer rate for the region. Each Km^ cell is characterized
by a variety of environmental, societal, aesthetic and public-
improvement attributes; these alter the potential transfer rates
for that particular cell. Furthermore, a stochastic element is
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introduced to mimic the capriciousness of Man in developing any
particular cell.
FORMULATION OF MODEL
As examples of the formulation of the component sub-
models , let us consider the algebraic equations for natural forest
and shoreline residential property. The submodel for natural
forest, Fn, is the simplest because it only entails transfers,
representing natural succession, from brushland, Fc, and other
forest types, Fn. , and transfers to field, Ai, and pine-oak
•J
(depending on soil type) because of fire.
Fn. = Fn. + a(Fc.) + a(Fn.) - a (BURN) - ot(Fn.)
1t 1t-l i J J
a = stochastic switch = 0 or 1 depending on comparison
of random number (R) and transition probability
(X) for ith and jth forest types:
Pine-oak (fire-controlled)
White pine-hardwoods
Northern white pine-hardwoods
Northern hardwoods
for brush (Fc)
and for fire (BURN) returning to inactive
agriculture (Ai) or to pine-oak
The submodel requires the area of natural forest in
2
each Km cell at t = 0 as an initial condition. Each transfer
is accomplished using a stochastic switch, a . The switch has a
value of 1 for a particular time step if a random number genera-
ted by the program equals or exceeds the given transition proba-
bility. The function BURN determines whether fire-controlled
transfer is back to field (the same as inactive agriculture) or
to pine-oak forest, which can recover from fire.
The submodel for shoreline residential property, Rk, is
of particular interest because of the impact this land-use cate-
gory has in the Lake George region. This submodel represents
transfers from several land uses: inactive agriculture, natural
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forest, brushland, and pine plantation. The loss term represents
transfer to commercial land use.
Rkt = Rk_ + a(q)Ai + a(q)Fn + a(q)Fc + a(q)Fp -
a if R > X
1 if R < X
R = random number
X = ((TAVE + TP + f (H) + e~eDIST ,'- f (SOIL) ) (AMNTY) ) /N
TAVE = mean transfer rate
TP = regional tourist pressure
H = highway class in cell
DIST = distance from Northway interchange
AMNTY = f (size of lake, water quality)
N = number of LUNR categories in cell:
Ai = inactive agriculture
Fn. = forest (i forest type)
Fc = brush
Fp = pine plantation
q = proportion of area transferred
Loss term represents transfer to commerical land use
It can be seen that this submodel, which is represen-
tative of most of the submodels, introduces additional complexity
in that only a given percentage, q, of a land use or forest type
is transferred at one time. However, of far greater implication,
the transfer probability is dependent on cell-specific character-
istics and can change dynamically during the course of a simula-
tion.
The mean transfer rate, TAVE, is enhanced or reduced
by a series of terms. One of these, representing regional tourist
pressure, imparts a degree of nonlinearity to the submodel. In
our simulations for Lake George it is used as a time-varying term
to account for the surge in development following construction of
the Northway (187) . There is a function for the class of highway
in a given cell and another representing the exponential decay of
development pressure away from the Northway interchanges - both
2-5
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can be considered as accessibility terms. The final term is a
function of soil type in a given cell and, for poor soils, repre-
sents an impediment to development. If the cell is serviced by
a wastewater treatment facility this impediment is removed.
There is also a reduction factor, AMNTY, to represent
the effect of suboptimal recreational amenity. If the lake is
large and has excellent water quality, such as Lake George, then
the factor has a value of 1; that is, it does not reduce the
transfer rate, which represents developmental pressure. If the
lake is smaller, such as several other lakes in the proposed
Lake George sewerage district, or if the water quality is objec-
tionable - as indicated by the environmental perception survey -
then the factor has a value of less than 1 and the transfer rate
is reduced accordingly. Thus, the formulation includes negative
feedback. The water quality parameter can be adjusted manually
during a simulation; or, eventually, it can be determined dynam-
ically through direct linkage to CLEANER.
FUNCTIONALITIES OF THE MODEL
External
The only explicit external functionality in the model
is what we have termed regional tourist pressure (see Shoreline
Residential Property above). Although we have used it as a step
function to represent the effect of opening the Northway, it could
be used as the means for driving the model. For example, it could
incorporate the effects of changing affluence and increasing
population density on development (see Stern, 1971; Park, Scavia
and Clesceri, 1975).
Environmental
In our study we have recognized soil types, slope, depth
to bedrock, depth to water table, floodplain, and susceptibility
to fire as important cell-specific characteristics. Most of these
are represented in the transfer-rate terms. Drainage basin and
predominant forest type were also noted for each cell.
2-6
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Societal
The developmental constraints of local zoning ordinances
are considered in the model. Also, because of the location of
part of the study area within the Adirondack Park, the Adirondack
Park Agency comprehensive land-use and development plan was incor-
porated as an additional set of constraints.
Implicit in the SOIL function is the partial control
exerted by county health regulations on developments requiring
septic systems in areas of soils with poor percolation character-
istics. This constraint is removed when the areas are incor-
porated in a sewerage district.
Aesthetic
Lake size and water quality are important factors in
the submodel for shoreline residential property. We intend to
incorporate scenic vistas and gravel pits as aesthetic charac-
teristics that can change dynamically during a simulation.
Proximity to state parks and other public recreational areas
might also be considered. Likewise, if time had permitted, we
would have used the presence of major utility lines as negative
amenities affecting residential development.
Publie-improvement
The effects of transportation are a major functionality
in the model. Each cell is characterized by the highest class
of road that occurs (excluding the interstate system), and that
contributes to the developmental pressure on the cell Csee Formu-
lation of the Model). The interstate highway is treated separate-
ly; distance to nearest interchange and regional tourist pres-
sure due to construction of the Northway are important in simulat-
ing the Lake George region. These transportation effects can be
altered; therefore, LAND has excellent potential for examining
the secondary impacts of proposed highway construction.
The secondary impact of a new wastewater treatment
facility is manifested principally through the cell-specific SOIL
2-7
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function (see "Societal" above). Development is permitted in
areas where otherwise it would be severely limited, and higher
density housing and commercial building is allowed in other
areas, subject to zoning constraints.
Ecologic
Old field succession is an important part of the model.
The planting of pine plantations is also handled explicitly.
However, most of the ecologic functionalities are derived from
the land-use and forest-type categories.
Habitat for each of a variety of animals, including
rare and endangered species, is determined through a linear
transformation of key categories. For some field-dwelling animals
such as woodchucks, these categories include interstate highway
and utility right-of-ways. The assumption that presence of re-
quired habitat implies presence of the species, excluding deer
and other heavily hunted wildlife, is supported by many wildlife
biologists. And even deer can be predicted from land-use cate-
gories with some degree of confidence (Bergstrom, 1975). For
some widely ranging species, including bear, deer, coyote, and
fisher, the contiguity of habitat is important; LAND is pro-
grammed to perform this "bookkeeping" function efficiently.
The principal drainage basin corresponding to each cell
is encoded, and trout streams are also designated. With little
additional effort LAND can be adapted so that changing nutrient
and siltation loadings can be projected. These, in turn, can be
used to predict impact on trout. Nutrient loadings in drainage
basins emptying into the larger lakes such as Lake George and
Glen Lake can be used to drive CLEANER in simulating these lakes.
For smaller bodies of water Vollenweider's productivity model
could be used to project water quality.
DATA PROCESSING
Ln order to run LAND for the Lake George region it was
necessary to have land-use and vegetational data for each Km2 cell
-------
for at least two, and preferably for three, distinct time periods
For this reason the existing LUNR data base (1968 photography)
was checked for errors, 1948 and 1958 aerial photographs were in-
terpreted, and additional data were obtained (see Case Study).
The first step was to visit the site to gain a first-
hand understanding of accessibility, land-use patterns, forest
types, successional stages, eutrophy, and topographic corridors
and impediments. For one month we had the services of Paul
Marean, a graduate biologist with extensive field training. A
significant portion of his time was spent in obtaining "ground
truth" for use with the LUNR photographs and overlays and the
NASA U-2 color infrared photographs (see Case Study).
Obvious errors in the LUNR data were corrected and
inconsistencies in interpretation were taken into consideration.
The high-resolution color infrared photographs were used to map
the principal forest types, yielding an invaluable disaggrega-
tion of the LUNR natural forest category.
Interpretation of the 1948 and 1958 aerial photographs
was facilitated by comparison with the LUNR overlays for 1968.
Scale differences were resolved by the construction of Km^ grids
on mylar overlays for each of the photo sets. Registration of
the grid with the standard U.T.M. grid was accomplished through
comparison with a set of USGS topographic maps, using easily
determined landmarks. The grid was varied to account for obvious
parallax distortions of scale.
All the photographs were interpreted by one individual
(Marean) in order to minimize inconsistencies. Data were entered
directly onto coding forms and keypunched in a format that was
most convenient for the interpreter. Computer routines were
used to detect errors in interpretation, especially land uses
that did not sum to unity for a particular cell, and errors in
coding, involving misplaced data. The data were then reformatted
to be compatible with the LUNR data.
2-9
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CALIBRATION
Mean transfer rates (general transition probabilities)
for each pair of categories were obtained for each ten-year time
interval by subtracting the 1948 dataset from the 1958 dataset and
from the 1968 dataset and averaging the results respectively.
Comparison of these "SUBTRAX" values with twenty-year transfer
rates, obtained by subtracting the 1948 dataset from the 1968
dataset, indicated the nonlinearities in external developmental
pressure. These determined the time-varying values of TP, the
"tourist pressure" parameter. The twenty-year rates determined
the TAVE values.
Given sufficient time we could have statistically par^-
titioned the variance in transfer rates to account for cell-
specific differences. In fact, we purposely chose a larger area
for calibration than was needed for the EIS in order to obtain
a statistically valid sampling of cell characteristics and trans-
fer rates. However, we have had to be content with a "brute
force" calibration.
The initial set of coefficient values was derived from
subjective inspection of the transfer patterns. The inspection
process was facilitated by having PLANMAP output (see Case Study)
for each time period, as well as SUBTRAX PLANMAP output.
We are still performing the calibrations. However,
our procedure is to run the simulation for a ten-year (or twenty-
year) period and express the results as PLANMAPs which can be
compared with the PLANMAPs of the observed land uses and vegeta^
tional types. The coefficients are altered accordingly and the
process repeated until the resulting PLANMAPs converge with the
real-world. Therefore, through subtle manipulations of the co-
efficients for the various functionalities the cell-specific re-
sponses can be derived.
VALIDATION
Data were obtained for the adjoining Schroon Lake area,
but have not been used in the calibration. When we are satisfied
2-10
-------
with the calibration, these data will be used to test the validity
of the model. It is anticipated that some further adjustments
in the coefficients will be necessary to match the simulations to
this independent dataset. Without such an evaluation and sub-
sequent "fine tuning" we would not be able to place any confidence
in the use of the model for projecting future changes. Valida-
tion with an independent dataset is essential if modeling is to
become a useful tool in assessing environmental impact.
2-11
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bergstrom, A. S., 1975, Deer Habitat Using L.U.N.R.: New York
State Department of Environmental Conservation, L.U.N.R.
Status Report, Memorandum.
Hett, J. M., 1971, Land Use Changes in Eastern Tennessee and a
Simulation Model which Describes these Changes for
Three Counties: Ecological Sciences Division Publication
No. 414, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, International
Biological Program Report No. 71-8.
Park, R. A., D. Scavia and N. L. Clesceri, 1975, CLEANER, The
Lake George Model, In: C. S. Russell (ed.), Ecological
Modeling in a Management Context: Resources for the
Future, Inc.
Shannon, E. E., and P. L. Brezonik, 1972, Relationships Between
Lake Trophic State and Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loading
Rates: Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 6,
p. 719-725.
Shugart, H. H., T. R. Crow, and J. M. Hett, 1973, Forest Succes-
sion Models: A Rationale and Methodology for Modeling
Forest Succession Over Large Regions: Forest Science,
Vol. 19, No. 3, p. 203-212.
Stern, H. I., 1971, A Model for Population-Recreational Quality
Interactions of a Fresh Water Site: Rensselaer Poly-
technic Institute Operations Research and Statistics,
Res. Paper 37-71-P4, 24 pp.
2-12
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MAN'S IMPACT ON THE ECOSYSTEM
David L. Jameson
Any perturbation to any part of the ecosystem will have
repercussions throughout the rest of the ecosystem. Although this
principle applies to structural components of the ecosystem, it
is especially true of the functional components. Life on earth
depends on the flow of energy and the cycling of materials
through the ecosystem. The abundance of organisms, their meta-
bolic rates, and the complexity of their interrelationships are
all controlled by these two factors. Energy and materials flow
through the biotic environment inseparably as organic matter.
But the flow of energy is one-way while nutrients recirculate
within and between ecosystems. "The continuous round trip of
materials, paid for by the one-way trip of energy, keeps ecosys-
tems functioning." (Smith, 1974).
Humans are an integral part of any ecosystem but human
activity is a more pervasive force than is the case with other
organisms. Maintenance of a quality environment requires actions
to be perceived in the light of their effect on the internal
dynamic and regulating mechanisms of those ecosystems (Reichle,
1975, Reichle, et al., 1976). Humans divert energy, water, and
other materials from natural systems in order to create unstable,
artificial systems distinguished by high energy inputs and turn-
over rates (and in some cases, lowered species diversity and low
stability). In brief, many of human systems are typical of
simple early developmental stages of succession (Gill and Bonnett,
1973)
Humans have significantly modified their physical environ-
ment by large scale removal of plant cover via filling, logging,
3-1
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burning, land drainage or inundation, earth moving, and resource
extraction. In some cases this devegetated land is then covered
with concrete or other rock-like material, resulting in greatly
increased heat-holding capacity and reducedporoxity. Such
practices can increase ambient heat energy and surface water
run-off rate, conditions already aggravated by devegetation and
fossil fuel combustion respectively. Other often mentioned
impacts include: lowering of ground water levels, reduction in
exposed water surfaces (marshes, wetlands, etc.) and weather
and climate modification (lowered humidity, reduced radiation
and increased frequency of light rainfall). Perhaps the most
talked about impacts on natural systems are those resulting from
the practice of dumping into the air and water over 500,000
organic and inorganic, natural and synthetic, biodegradable and
non-biodegradable substances which often disrupt or accelerate
many of the processes so vital to ecosystem function.
IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON AGRICULTURAL ECOSYSTEMS
An intensive agricultural system has some unique properties
which distinguish it from other terrestrial ecosystems. Maximum
economic productivity is obtained by the development of a mono-
culture and the provision of external energy, materials and,
water. Since the detritus component is destroyed by the exposure
to a wide range of temperatures and the continual disturbance
of the soil, there is little assimilative capacity. Materials
not converted to plant productivity are washed into nearby streams
where they contribute to the productivity of the aquatic ecosystem.
Thus the conversion of agricultural land to urban property can
result in a change in nutrient cycling and material flow different
from those changes which occur when forest is urbanized.
Abandoned agricultural land will return to the natural state
by successional stages which are well studied and familiar to
most ecologists but which vary extensively within the Eastern
Deciduous Forest Biome depending on local climate, soil and,
vegetation. Agricultural productivity near areas with rapid
3-2
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urbanization tends to decrease because of economic factors more
than because of losses from urban pollution. Ozone (Coulson
and Heath, 1974), S02 (O'Connor and Parbery, 1973; LeBlanc and
Rao, 1973) S02 and N02 (Barrett, Hill, Hill and Lamb, 1974),
Fl (McNulty and Newman, 1958) and other gases have been identified
in the reduction of plant production; when some of these same
gases are in low concentrations, they serve as stimulants (Bennett
and Resh, 1974). Some crop damage can be correlated to particular
pollution sources and some economic losses may be attributable
to general urban air pollution, but the unique local factors
control and each situation requires separate study.
As agricultural land is replaced by urban land uses the first
influence is that of the invasion of weekend and gentlemen farmers
who work in the city and live outside the city. The diversity
is increased by the addition of a wide variety of introduced
species. Successional stages of old fields further increases
the variety of plants and the increase in diversity of animals
follows. Changes in human population, age distribution, continu-
ing urbanization, and changing economic factors results in the
eventual conversion of the land to suburban use.
Currently there are approximately two acres of cropland and
two acres of rangeland for each person in the United States
(Lanier, 1970). Loss of acres of agricultural land to urbaniza-
tion will result in expansion of cropland, usually at the expense
of rangeland and sometimes at the expense of natural areas. Most
urbanization in the U.S. today removes cropland but each local
situation is unique.
In summary, there are few general principles available to
determine the loss of crops from urbanization. Each situation
can be assessed on the basis of comparing crop productivity near
an urban area with that further from it and using comparison of
these data with the predicted urbanization developmental pattern
to estimate the crop loss which will occur accompanying any given
WTF or highway. The overall incremental loss of cropland becomes
more important as more natural and rangeland is lost and as these
fininte resources become more valuable.
3-3
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IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES
The part of the urban environment which accomodates commerce
and industry is most often thought of in connection with environ-
mental impacts, for here many human activities are concentrated.
A city together with its built-up suburbs can be regarded
as an ecosystem importing food, water, fossil fuels, and raw
materials, and exporting sewage, combustion products, and solid
waste. Normal ecosystem processes exist in highly modified,
artificial forms or operate highly stressed conditions.
Primary productivity is adversely affected by reduced light
from dust haze, reduced humidity, low soil moisture, acid rain
damage to plant tissues (Thomas, 1965), and acid rain inhibition
of the microbial and invertebrate activity which makes nutrients
available (Satchell, 1967). Photosynthesis is inhibited by a
number of gases found in urban air (S02, 63, HCN, HF, PAN, ethylene,
NOX, SOX, etc.) Increased frequency of light showers results
in shallow roots and plants easily toppled by wind. Artificial
lighting causes flowering at different times and increased temper-
tures lengthens the growing season.
Many restrictions are placed on photosynthesis and production
by concrete and particulate matter in the air of the urban envi
ronment. Because of intense fertilization, suburban areas may
be more productive than natural areas (Lawson et al., 1972).
The surplus biomass of the urban environment is not allowed to
accumulate, compost, and fertilize urban areas; it is hauled
away as waste and chemical fertilizers applied. In a similar
way biogeochemical cycles in urban support areas (wastershed,
forests, farms, etc.) have been modified by resource removal.
Since most urban development has occurred near water, coastal
areas have been greatly modified by draining and filling to create
more land. Extensive sections of rivers have become open sewers.
The large amounts of organic matter now being introduced into
waterways overload the cylying capacity of these systems; deplete
02 levels, initiate algae blooms and generally accelerate eutro-
phication. Although less drastically polluted water may have
3-4
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greater productivity because of extra heat and nutrients, such
inputs usually result in the simplification of aquatic communities.
Species of early successional stages are common and productivity
is high.
Unfortunately, urban waste is not confined to sewage.
Heavy metals and persistent biocides now contaminate all waters.
Construction and other types of disturbances typical of the city
cause erosion and siltation. Urban street runoff adds oil, grease,
deicing compounds, road marking paint, detergent, significant
amounts of animal excretion (Beck, 1973), and pesticides to aquatic
systems. Urban pesticide levels have been found to be higher
than rural levels (Tarrant and Tatton, 1968).
The effects of pollution are not confined to aquatic mineral
cycles. Acid soil restricts earthworms, reduces availability
of certain nutrients, and restricts microbial and enzymatic action
in soil. Invertebrate reducers, which play a significant role
in the decompositon process, may find living sites very limited
in the inner city and are inhibited by pesticides in the suburbs
(Barnes and Weil, 1944). The urban ecosystem contrasts with
most natural ecosystem, which use and reuse many elements.
Natural systems may permit abundant elements to pass-through
as part of a long term sedimentary cycle but they are much more
conservative with such scarce elements as phosphorus. An urban
ecosystem not only dumps elements recycled by natural ecosystems,
it also dumps metals and other substances which could serve as
raw materials for industry. Putting it simply, an urban ecosystem
is one which does not reuse its waste.
Measurements of biotic diversity do not tell us very much
about cities that we did not know already. In cities, man is
the dominant species, accompanied by a few tough plants and
scavenging animals. Although suburbs have been found to have
a high degree of plant diversity, (Lawson, e_t al, 1972), the
ornamentals responsible for this diversity are usually exotics,
protected by sprays, and enhanced by protected habitats and fer-
tilizers. Consequently, interaction with natural food chains
3-5
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is altered (Recher, 1974) and these ornamentals may provide little
reinforcement of stability.
The city replaces a large component of a more naturally
functioning ecosystem with a very specialized and highly managed
urban ecosystem in which the activities of a single animal species
(man) and his urban correlates (starlings, dogs, and cats) replace
more diverse animal systems which are less dominated by man
(agricultural, forests, ponds, and streams). These man centered
activities alter air and water quality, modify weather, produce
solid waste, noise, radiation, hazardous substances, change the
soil, hydrology, climate, plant and animal communities, and use
considerable fossil fuel energy. Each of these activities, and
the urban structure itself, influences the productivity of both
the managed (agricultural, commercial forest) and the unmanaged
wildland ecosystem which surrounds the city.
Additionally, there are some natural forces which impact
near city ecosystems differently when compared to far from city
habitats. Ice storms, hurricanes, subsidence effects, have site
specific characteristics. Both natural and agricultural habitats
are impacted by human interventions which vary considerably.
Vandalism of farm crops and rustling have higher frequencies near
cities. Cities provide dust, noise, odor, and ferial dogs and
cats which will influence agricultural productivity and ecosystem
function. Recreational activities including snowmobiles, trail
bikes, dune buggies, and even traditional horseback riding and
hiking can impact areas near cities.
Coleman (1975) has pointed out the relation between diversity
and biological productivity, and land use patterns. Near the
city center, productivity and diversity are very low. The older
residential areas near the city center have higher diversity
and productivity than newer residential areas. When range or
agricultural acreage are first removed from economic productivity
and when the city first begins to invade the natural forest, both
biological productivity and diversity are reduced. The gentlemen
farmer with his large lots and higher income will increase
3-6
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diversity by importation of fruit producers, ornamentals, and
exotics, but his activities will have little influence on
biological productivity.
Berry, et al. (1974), reviewed the relation between environ-
mental quality and the type and density of urbanization. This
volume is a valuable source of trends and correlations in data
from existing cities. The "Costs of Sprawl" provides estimates
of the changes in environmental quality which will accompany
various planned and unplanned development patterns.
Urbanization impacts the ecosystem by perturbating the rates
of various ecosystem functions. To understand these changes,
we need to study areas before urbanization, during the process
of development, in areas with relatively stable urban structure,
in areas with urban decay, and with urban renewal. The complete
cycle has not been studied in a single situation. Comparative
studies provide some indications, and studies of each step in the
process are scattered through the literature. However, these
studies emphasize the easily measured parameters (e.g. water
quality) rather than the much more significant measure of the
impact that changes in parameters have on the ecosystem.
Borman et. al. (1974) studied particulate and dissolved matter
export and the erodibility before and after deforestation.
Dissolved substances were approximately twice as much as partic-
ulate matter in the mature forest but rose to more than eight
times as much during the first two years following cutting.
Erosion increases after two years and particulate matter output
rises sharply from 2.5 metric tons per square kilometer per year
to 38 metric tons per kilometer square per year. Richards and
Leonard (1973) discuss some of the problems associated with
fertilization of urban forestry and recreation developments.
They point out that many species depend on low nutrients and
fertilization and provide useful cover while fertilization may
promote the growth of noxious weeds and increase maintenance costs.
Richard (1974) has pointed out that more of urban greenspace will
be recycled from dumps, urban renewal, etc., and urban forests
provide promising structures to redeveloped balanced ecosystems.
3-7
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Baumann et al. (1974), reviewed the development of urban!
zation at Lake Wingra, Wisconsin from 1837 to"1973. The lake
has been reduced in size by almost one third by swamp and marsh
drainage and park development. A number of plant and fish species
have disappeared, and introduced forms have become common. In
general, the lake management has been to respond to single problems
rather than with a consideration of the entire ecosystem. Lawson
et al. (1972), compared the structure and primary productivity
of two watersheds in the Lake Wingra basin. Residential activity
greatly increased the number of species of herbs, shrubs, and
trees, increased the productivity of herbs, and slightly decreased
the productivity of trees and shrubs. The natural area had more
shrub cover and higher trees density (p. 2-48).
Huff et al. (1973), estimate that 84% of the dissolved
inorganic phosphorus entering Lake Wingra is brought in via storm
drains even though they contribute only 251 of the total inflow
volume to the lake. They used a hydrologic transport model to
simulate surface flow rates and volumes for both urban and natural
portions of the Lake Wingra basin and estimate changes in runoff
composition as land is converted from natural to urban conditions.
An atmospheric transport model (Mills and Reeves, 1973) may be
useful for the movement of trace contaminants from emission as
air pollutants through depositon and subsequent hydrologic trans-
port to streams and groundwater and to predict effects of urbani
zation on surface flows and associated water quality.
Jameson (1971) compared parts of the San Jacinto River water-
shed with and without small towns along the branches of the river.
Standard water quality measures were not significantly different
at stations ten or more miles downstream on branches with small
towns (2) and those without (7). Urbanization, vegetation, soil
and weather were used as predictor variables to water quality
criteria measures and analyzed with canonical correlation analysis
The amount of urbanization was not a significant predictor to
water quality in areas with little urbanization. Waste treatment
practices determined water quality in areas with high density
urbanization.
3-8
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TABLE 3-1. LAKE WLNGRA
ECOLOGLCAL PARAMETER
Total Above Ground Productivity g/m^/yr
(adjusted for impervious services)
Trees
Foliage (g/m^/yr)
o
Branches (g/m /yr)
Bole (gm/m^/yr)
9
Shrubs (gm/m /yr)
Herbs (gm/m^/yr)
Number species shrubs
Percent cover shrub
Number species trees
density of trees (stems/ha)
mean basal area trees D.B.H.
NOE WOODS
811.8
410.8
72.5
282.4
28.0
18.1
12
40
11
422
15-16
NAKOMA RESIDENTIAL
1009.8
319.4
87.4
305.3
40.0
257.5
74
20
75
143
22-23
Data from Lawson, G. 3., G. Cottam, and 0. L. Loucks, 1972. Structure and
primary productivity of two watersheds in the Lake Wingra basin. EDFB
memo report #72-98
3-9
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Turner et al. (1975), compared two similar size watersheds
in Florida representing natural and urban areas. Suspended and
dissolved solids and dissolved nitrogen were higher in the urban
watershed than would be predicted by the higher stream discharge.
Phosphorus was near expected and silicon was lower than would
have been predicted from the forested watershed.
Lake George, N.Y., has been studied extensively by various
IBP projects and has served as a focus for one of the case studies
of this project. Drs. N. Clesceri and J. J. Ferris have studied
nutrient budgets for nitrogen and phosphorus from disturbed and
undisturbed watersheds. The seasonal cycles are clearly shown
in the accompanying tables (pp. 2-50 thru 2-54). Additionally,
they have provided us with some tables showing comparative data
from other studies. Studies at Lake George suggest that almost
a third of the phosphorus comes from septic tank effluents, a
third from forest runoff, and a third from precipitation. Lawn
fertilizer contributed only 2.6% of the phosphorus and 1 percent
of the nitrogen while septic tanks (4.8%) and sewage treatment
plants (9.1%) make significant contributions to the nitrogen.
Much of the phosphorus (73.8%), and nitrogen (68.8%) are retained
in the lake sediments. The influence of perturbation on the
pelagic ecosystem model is shown in the figure from Scavia, D.
(1974) (p. 2-55).
These are awesome impacts on ecosystem function because
humans are now and will ever be dependent on the functioning of
the ecosystem. Most of human existence has been lived as a
hunter-gatherer a part of the natural ecosystem. Primitive
agriculture allowed manipulation of the natural ecosystem to
increase production with the help of animal energy and irrigation.
The technological agriculture of today completely transforms the
natural ecosystem, and places society largely outside of the
natural food chain and biogeochemical cycles. Maintenance of
highly productive monocultures requires huge expenditures of
energy (largely in the form of fossil fuels) for mechanization,
fertilization, pest control, and development of hybrid crop
varieties. Ultimately, we are still dependent, as are all
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TABLE 3-2. MONTHLY NUTRIENT BUDGETS FOR N and P IN
NORTHWEST BAY BROOK WATERSHED/ LAKE GEORGE/ N.Y,
Month
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
w
' Jan.
^ Feb.
Mar .
Apr.
May
Totals
Input
732
962
533
917
456
1108
1134
541
969
1258
967
1866
11447
.3
.7
.2
.3
.1
.4
.8
. 7
.2
.2
.2
.2
Nitrogen (g/ha)
Outflow Net
101
108
203
55
67
273
96
511
167
280
298
235
2394
+ 631
+ 854
+ 330
+ 862
+ 389
+ 835
+ 1038
+ 30
+ 802
+ 978
+ 669
+ 1631
+ 9053
.2
.7
.2
.3
.1
.4
.8
.7
.2
.2
.2
.2
Phosphorus (g/ha)
Input Outflow Net
26.
73.
7.
2.
3.
67.
43.
16.
29.
32.
7.
4.
314
7
9
4
4
1
4
8
6
5
2
0
5
3
4
5
0
1
8
8
7
2
7
13
3
67
.7
.7
.9
.9
.6
.0
.3
.8
.4
.4
.2
.8
.7
+ 23
+ 69
+ 1
+ 1
+ 1
+ 59
+ 35
+ 8
+ 27
+ 24
- 6
+ 0
+ 246
.0
.2
.5
.5
.5
.4
.5
.8
.1
.8
.2
. 7
.8
* THIS WATERSHED IS REPRESENTATIVE OF FORESTED (UNDISTURBED) ECOSYSTEMS
THIS TABLE PROVIDED BY N. CLESCERI AND J. J. FERRIS
-------
TABLE 3-3.
MONTHLY NUTRIENT BUDGETS FOR N and P IN
HAGUE BROOK WATERSHED/ LAKE GEORGE, N,Y,
Month
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov .
Dec.
Jan .
Feb.
Mar .
Apr .
May
Totals
Nitrogen (g/ha/mo)
Input Outflow Net
616.
811.
449.
771.
380.
933.
1081.
456.
813.
1060.
813.
1573.
9762
6
4
6
5
7
2
4
5
9
7
2
7
59
60
143
35
55
99
122
513
561
258
143
199
2247
+ 557
+ 751
+ 306
+ 736
+ 325
+ 834
+ 959
- 56
+ 252
+ 802
+ 670
+ 1374
+ 751
.6
.4
.6
.5
. 7
.2
.4
. 5
.9
.7
.2
.7
. 5
Phosphorus (g/ha/mo)
Input Outflow
22.
62 .
6.
2.
2.
56.
36.
13.
24.
27.
5.
3.
264.
5
3
2
0
5
7
9
8
9
2
8
8
6
2
2
4
1
2
7
5
16
39
4
11
9
105
.7
.1
.2
.2
.0
.3
.0
. 3
.0
.5
.6
.1
.0
+ 19
+ 60
+ 2
+ 0
+ 0
+ 49
+ 31
- 2
- 14
+ 22
- 5
- 5
+ 159
.8
. 2
.0
.8
.5
.4
.9
.5
.1
.7
.8
.3
.6
* THIS WATERSHED IS REPRESENTATIVE OF DISTURBED ECOSYSTEMS
THIS TABLE PROVIDED BY N. CLESCERI AND J. J. FERRIS
-------
TABLE 3-4. MONTHLY NUTRIENT BUDGETS FOR N and P IN
WEST BROOK WATERSHED/ LAKE GEORGE/ N,Y,1
Month
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar .
Apr .
May
Totals
Input
732.
962.
533.
917.
456.
1108.
1134.
541.
969.
1258.
967.
1866.
11447
Nitrogen (g/ha/mo)
Outflow Net
2
7
2
3
1
4
8
7
2
2
2
2
376
427
992
489
532
962
559
743
405
985
681
441
7592
+ 356
+ 535
- 458
+ 428
- 75
+ 146
+ 575
- 201
+ 564
+ 273
+ 286
+ 1425
+ 3855
.2
.7
.8
.3
.9
.4
.8
.3
.2
. 2
.2
.2
Phosphorus (g/ha/mo)
Input Outflow Net
26
73
7
2
3
67
43
16
29
32
7
4
314
.7
.9
.4
.4
. 1
.4
.9
.6
.5
.2
.0
.5
6.
4.
6.
2.
1.
4.
7.
14.
3.
11.
13.
7.
81.
5
2
2
2
8
0
3
2
0
3
5
5
7
+ 20
+ 59
+ 1
+ 0
+ 1
+ 63
+ 36
+ 2
+ 26
+ 20
- 6
- 3
+ 232
.2
.7
. 2
.2
.3
,4
.6
.4
.5
.9
.5
.0
.3
* THIS WATERSHED IS REPRESENTATIVE OF DISTURBED ECOSYSTEMS
THIS TABLE PROVIDED BY N. CLESCERI AND J. J. FERRIS
-------
TABLE 3-5. NUTRIENT BUDGETS FOR N and P IN PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF
I
M
-pi
Nitrogen (kg/ha/yr)
Location Input Outflow Net
H. J. Andrews Experi-
mental Forest #10, OR** 0.99 0.48 + 0.51
L, Sammamish, WA
T^^aniiah PTPPV Wa 1"p~rQVip>rl*
x j j a. u ucm vj .1 ^ t- x\. i¥ d L- \s l. j n c vl —___».«
L. George, NY
Hague Brook Watershed* 9.76 2.25 +7.52
West Brook Watershed* 11.45 7.59 + 3.86
NW Bay Brook Watershed** 11.45 2.39 +9.06
L. Wingra, WI* 8.32 4.49 + 3.83
Phosphorus (kg/ha/yr)
Input Outflow Net
0.27 0.52 - 0.25
OC1 DQ7 (I'ZA
. o 1 U . o / U . JO
0.27 0.11 + 0.16
0.31 0.08 + 0.23
0.31 0.07 + 0.24
0.24 0.54 - 0.30
* DISTURBED
** UNDISTURBED
THIS TABLE PROVIDED BY N. CLESCERI AND J.J. FERRIS
-------
TABLE 3-6. DISSOLVED NUTRIENT EXPORT FROM FORESTED (UNDISTURBED) AND DISTURBED ECOSYSTEMS
Area
H. J. Andrews Experimental
Forest #10, OR
Hubbard Brook Experimental
Forest, NH
Ontario, Canada
L. George, NY
Northwest Bay Brook Wastershed
(6/1/72 - 5/31/73)
Area
Hubbard Brook Experimental
Forest, NH
L. Mendota, WI
L. Sammamish, WA
(Drainage basin sub watersheds)
Issaquah Creek
L. George, NY
Hague Brook Watershed
West Brook Watershed
Urban Lands
Forested Lands
UNDISTURBED
Outflow (kg/ha/yr)
P
^ * -,
total
0.48
2.3*
2.3*
2.39
total
0.52
0.01
0.16
0.068
DISTURBED
Outflow (kg/ha/yr)
N+ + ,
total
120*
3.0
2.25
7.59
6.8 to 8.8
1.4 to 3.3
total
0.02
0.36
0.5 (ave.)
0.87
0.11
0.08
1.1 to 5.6
0.03 to 0.9
Reference
Fredericksen, 1972
Likens § Bormann, 1972
Hobbie $ Likens, 1973
Schindler §
Nighswander, 1970
Gibble, 1974
Reference
Likens § Bormann, 1972
Hobbie § Likens, 1973
Lee, 1966
Welch, et al., 1975
Welch, et al., 1975
Gibble, 1974
Gibble, 1974
Loehr, 1974
Loehr, 1974
NH4-N+N03-N only
THIS TABLE PROVIDED BY N. CLESCERI AND J.J. FERRIS
-------
100
10
•/\\
/ v
1.
''
.1 ,
/
D
D ' •
o •
01
D. a .
001 ,.
DAYS
NANNOPHYTOPLANKTON
LARGE PLANKTONIC DIATOMS
COPEPODS
LAKE TROUT-PIKE
PO,.
normal
365
perturbed
o
Figure 3-1. Biomass (g dry wt/m ) o£ normal and
perturbed ecosystem model.
3-16
-------
organisms, on plants' ability to fix the sun's energy and produce
food and fiber. Even the fossil fuels which account for most of
the productivity of agricultural systems are the product of long
dead vegetation.
Humans rely on the productivity of the ecosystem for food,
housing, and fuel. This requires the huge purifying sink of the
earth's ecosystems to decompose and recycle human wastes. How-
ever, humans have seriously upset biogeochemical cycling by
removing nutrients from some systems (usually terrestrial) and
concentrating them in others (usually aquatic). Humans have
overburdened the ecosystem's ability to handle the recycling of
natural substances and further complicates matters with synthetic
materials which the system cannot biodegrade. Such damage to the
ecosystem not only affects its ability to assimilate wastes but
may affect energy flow and productivity.
Natural ecosystems represent more than a source of organic
matter and a sink for wastes. They are the ultimate source of
all resources both physical and biological. Physical resources
such as air, water, soil, open space, are disappearing or being
altered by humans to the point that they can no longer function
as they once did in the natural ecosystem. Biological resources --
gene pools -- are also disappearing as species populations and
genes become extinct resulting in the loss of these genetic
resources to future plant and animal breeding (Terborg, 1973).
Bella and Overton(1972) have suggested that environmental plan-
ning should emphasize a "strategy of preserved diversity."
Westman (1972) has noted the contrast between the value systems
of those who emphasize technology and those who emphasize eco-
system analysis in the formulation of legislation and management
programs. He questions the usefulness of the concepts of assimi
lative capacity and of carrying capacity in providing adequate
protection for the human ecosystem. Clearly, the goals established
by the Congress in the clean water act are not to be achieved
without greater emphasis on ecosystem analysis. Several studies
have emphasized the importance of approaching man's urbanization
3-17
-------
process using systems approaches. Stearns and Montag (1974J used
what they considered an holistic approach and considered goals,
components and processes as a basis for a series of case studies
and conclude that there is an urban ecosystem which warrents
analysis. Linville and Davis (.1976) examined the environment as
a political issue in urban government and call for an ecosystems
approach to planning and management. Clearly, human activities
can impact agricultural productivity, aesthetic values, recrea-
tional activities, life styles, industrial capability and the
ability of man to respond to changing circumstances. The ecosys-
tem, a basis of all living processes, requires further analysis
and study.
LITERATURE CITED
Barnes, H. F., and J. W. Weil. 1944. Slugs in gardens: their
members, activities and distribution. Part I. J. Anim.
Ecology 14:71-105.
Barrett, T., A. C. Hill, S. Hill, and C. Lamb. 1974. Sensitivity
of native desert vegetation to SC^ and to SC^ and NC>2
combined. J. Air Poll. Cont. Assoc. 24(2).
Baumann, P. C., F. Kitchell, J. J. Magnuson, and T. B. Kayes.
1974. Lake Wingra, 183701973: A case history of human
impact. Wisconsin Acad. Sci., Arts and Letters 62:57-94.
Beck, A. M. 1973. The Ecology of Stray Dogs. York Press,
Baltimore. 98 pp.
Bella, D. A., and W. S. Overton. 1972. Environmental planning
and ecological possibilities. J. Sanitary Engineering
Division. Proc. Am. Soc. Civil Engineers 98(SA 3):579-592.
Benneth, J., and H. Resh. 1974. Apparent stimulations of plant
growth by air pollutants. Can. J. Bot. 52:35-41.
Berry, B. J. L., A. J. Bruzewics, D. B. Cargo, J. B. Cummings,
D. C. Dahmann, P. G. Goheen, C. P. Kaplan, D. B. Koopman,
R. F. Lamb, L. F. Margerum, M. W. Mikesell, D. J. Morgan,
J. P. Mrowka, J. P. Piccininni, and J. A. Soisson. 1974.
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-------
Land use, urban form and environmental quality. Dept. of
Geography, The Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, 111.
Borman, F. H., G. E. Likens, T. G. Siccama, R. S. Pierece, and
J. S. Eaton. 1974. The export of nutrients and recovery
of stable conditions following deforestation at Hubbard
Brook. Ecol. Monographs 44:255-277.
Coleman, D. J. 1975. An ecological input to regional planning.
School of Urban and Regional Planning, Univ. of Waterloo.
Coulson, C., and R. Heath. 1974. Inhibition of the photosynthetic
capacity of isolated chloroplasts by ozone. Plant Physiology
53:32-38.
Gill, D., and P. Bonnett. 1973. Nature in the Urban Landscape.
York Press, Inc., Baltimore. 209 pp.
Huff, D. D., J. F. Koonce, W. R. Ivarson, P. P. Weiler, E. H.
Dettman, and R. F. Harris. 1973. Simulation of urban run-
off, nutrient loading, and biotic response of a shallow
eutrophic lake. In. E. J. Middlebrooks, D. H. Falkenborg,
and T. E. Maloney (eds.), Modeling the Eutrophication Process,
Proceedings of a workshop held at Utah State Univ., Logan,
Utah, pp. 33-35.
Jameson, D. L. 1971. A model relating water quality, vegeta-
tional structure and urbanization in the San Jacinto River
basin. in Annual Report, Water Resources Institute. Texas
A £ M University. J. R. Runkles, Ed.
Lanier, R. 1970. A census of arable lands. Current History,
June, 337-342.
Lindville, J. and R. David. 1976. The political environment.
An ecosystems approach to urban management. Am. Inst.
Planners. Washington, D. C. 151 pp.
McNulty, Irving, and David Newman. 1958. "Effects of Atomospheric
Fluroide on the Respiration Rate of Bush Bean and Gladiolus
Leaves" Plant Physiology, Vol. 32, #2, pp. 115-121.
Mills, M. T., and M. Reeves. 1973. A Multi-source Atmospheric
Transport Model for Deposition of Trace Contaminants. Oak
Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL-NSF-EATC-2. Oak Ridge, Tn.,
October. 77 pp.
3-19
-------
O'Connor, J. A., and D. G. Parbery. 1975. "The Effects of
Phytotoxic Gases on Native Australian Plant Species; Part 1,
Acute Effects of Sulphur Dioxide" Environmental Pollution,
Vol. 7, #1, pp. 7-23.
Reichle; D. E. 1975. Advances in ecosystem analysis. BioScience
25:257-264.
Reichle, D. E., R. V. O'Neill and W. F. Harris. 1976. Principles
of energy and material exchange in ecosystems. in Unifying
concepts in ecology, W. H. vanDobben and R. H. Lowe-McConnel,
Eds. W. Junk, Pbl. The Hague, p. 27-43.
Richards, N. A. 1974. Forestry in an urbanizing society. J.
Forestry 72:1-4.
Richards, N. A., and R. E. Leonard. Urban forestry and recreation
developments in relation to fertilization. U.S. D. A.
Forest Service Tech. Rept. NE-3.
Scavia, D. 1974. Implementation of a pelagic ecosystem model
for lakes. Freshwater Institute Report #74-12. Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.
Smith, R. L. 1974. Ecology and Field Biology, Second Edition.
Harper § Row, New York. 850 pp.
Stearns, F. W. and T. Montag. 1974. The urban ecosystem. A
holistic approach. Dowden, Hutchinson and Ross, Publ.
Strausberg, PA 217 pp.
Tarrant, K. R., and J. O'G Tatton. 1968. Organo-chloride
pesticides in rainwater in the British Isles. Nature (Lond.J
219:725-727.
Terborg, J. 1973. Preservation of natural diversity: The prob-
lem of extinction prone species. Contribution to Amer. Soc.
Ecol. Symp: Toward a system of National Ecological Preserves.
Houston, Texas.
Thomas, M. D. 1965. The effects of air pollution on plants and
animals. In. Ecology and the Industrial Society, ed.
Turner, R. R., R. C. Harris, T. M. Burton, and E. A. Laws. 1975.
The effect of urban land use on nutrient and suspended
solids export from North Florida watersheds. in Mineral
cycling in Southeastern Ecosystems. U.S. A.E.G. Symposium
Series (In press).
Westman, W. E. 1972. Some basic issues in water pollution
control legislation. Am. Scientist. 60:767 773.
3-20
-------
MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF ECOSYSTEMS
Vicki Watson and David L. Jamson
The analysis of ecosystem program was the most ambitious
of the U.S. contributions to the International Biological
Program (IBP). It began formally in May, 1967, with a grant from
the National Science Foundation (NSF). Initially, the goals of
the biome studies were stated as follows:
achieve an understanding of ecosystem operation;
investigate relationships between land and water
systems in watersheds;
improve estimates of productivity in U.S. biomes;
add to scientific basis of resource management
(U.S. participation in IBP).
To achieve these goals, an integrated approach to ecosystem
research was adopted. An ecosystem has been defined (Johnson
et al., 1973) as "A community and its (living and nonliving)
environment considered collectively; the fundamental unit in
ecology." The ecosystem functions as a system in the exchanges
of materials and energy. It may be considered to have self-
regulatory attributes, may have arbitrarily identifiable bound-
aries, and certainly has recognizable relationships between
subcomponents. The properties of each ecosystem arise from
postulated interactions, feedbacks, and synergisms between com-
ponents of the system and between that system and others. The
variables, the processes operating on them, the parameters
regulating the processes, and the environmental influences on
the system need to be defined and evaluated.
Variables are the individual organisms or populations, the
energy, water, elements, soil, physical factors, etc. The
4-1
-------
processes are biological and physical activities that move or
transform the materials of the system. Processes may operate
within variables (e.g., respiration within an organism or
population) or they may be links between variables (e.g.,
water and nutrient uptake from soil) measured as rates. The
relevant parameters are coefficients in statements of rela-
tionships between state variables and within processes. Some
are constant and some vary with the environment. The relevant
environmental factors limit or accelerate the system by influ-
encing process rates.
Some processes investigated by the biome studies are:
PLANT PROCESSES
Uptake: Net Carbon fixation, water uptake,
nutrient uptake
Growth: Vegetation growth, translocation
Life process: Respiration, flowering nonher-
bivorous mortality
Losses: Transpiration, foliar leaching,
sloughing
ANIMAL PROCESSES
Uptake: Food consumption, respiration
Growth: Assimilation, individual growth and
development
Life process: Respiration, reproduction
Losses: Excretion
WATER-RELATED PROCESS
Input: Rainfall
Flows: Runoff, runon, infiltration
Losses: Evaporation, percolation to
groundwater
4-2
-------
NUTRIENT PROCESS
Inputs: Deposition, nitrogen fixation
Transformations: Humification, volatization,
ammonification
Losses: Denitrification, decomposition,
nitrification
Ecosystem models are listed in Kadlec (1971) , O'Neill,
et al. (1972), and Parker and Roop (1974). Since the final
reports of the U.S. I.E.P. are still in preparation, much of the
documentation must be obtained from reports available from the
I.B.P. offices at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
ECOSYSTEM SUBMODELS (COMPONENT PROCESS MODELS)
The work of IBP dealt with ecosystem metabolism -- the
means by which structural characteristics and system proper-
ties controlled energy flow, nutrient cycling, and responses
to perturbations. Such analysis requires sophisticated mathe-
matical analogs or models of the system, and such modeling
played a major role in the biome studies. Recent advances in
systems science were also used to advantage by IBP.
In addition to the progress made in systems modeling and
analysis, IBP developed a national biome data base and did
much to advance the understanding of ecosystem productivity and
the role of physical and chemical parameters and related proces-
ses in the ecosystem. In fact, during the first two years of
the forest biome work, the major emphasis was placed on the
development of component process models describing productivity
and physical and chemical parameters and processes.
In the Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome, which will serve as
our example of the IBP work, productivity research was aimed at
four questions:
4-3
-------
What are the actual and potential amounts of primary
production for certain types of forests in the
eastern United States?
How do environmental factors regulate and ultimately
limit forest productivity?
How are primary production processes coupled to
system processes?
With an understanding of the underlying control mech-
anisms, can this knowledge be incorporated into
mathematical models that permit examination of
the system as a whole and thus indicate the
consequences of forest ecosystem management?
(U.S. participation in IBP)
The following is a partial list of the process models which
have been developed. Abiotic: Steady state stand energy
(Murphy, Knoerr); Dynamic stand energy (Murphy, Mankin, Knoerr);
Soil litter-atmosphere (Murphy); Canopy energy flux (Hutchison,
MattJ.
Terrestrial Primary Production: Leaf photosynthesis
(Sinclair); Steady state photosynthesis (Goldstein, Mankin);
Canopy photosynthesis (Sinclair, Murphy, Knoerr); Plant-water
relations (Sinclair, Murphy); Biomass distribution (Ralston,
Chapman, Kinerson) ; Foliage distribution (Kinerson, Higginbotham,
Chapman); Branch and stem growth (Kinerson, Chapman); Stand
primary production (Goldstein, Harris, Mankin); Stand develop-
ment (Dinger, Taylor); Succession (Shugart, Johnson, Hett,
Crow) Land use dynamics (Hett).
Terrestrial Secondary Production: Population dynamics
(Dean); Insect consumption (Goldstein, Van Hook); Stochastic
population model (O'Neill); Food chain kinetics (Shugart,
Mankin); Terrestrial consumers (O'Neill, Mankin).
4-4
-------
Terrestrial Decomposition: Earthworm-litter decomposition
(Sollins, Reichle); Nutrients in arthropods (Gist); Arthropods
in white pine (Cornaby, Waide); Decomposition by Cryptozoa
(Reichle, Van Hook, O'Neill); Soil microinvertebrates (McBrayer);
Soil fungal decomposition (Ausmus); Bacteria- substrate (Todd,
Gist); Litter decomposition (Cromack); Terrestrial decomposition
(Shugart, Mankin).
Terrestrial Nutrient Cycling: Soil nitrogen (Endelmann,
Northup, Huges, Keeney, Boyle); Nitrogen budget model (Harris);
Soil nutrients (Henderson, Shugart, Goldstein).
Hydrology: Soil water infiltration (Miller, Reeves); Water
balance in soils (Murphy); PROSPER Stand water balance
(Goldstein, Mankin); Lake George hydrology (Colon, N. Clesceri);
Lake level model (Huff, Dettmann); Lake circulation (Hoopes,
Patterson); Seiche movement (Stewart); Mixing model (Park, Silver,
Katz, Sterling); Sedimentation (Fox, Park); Stream flow (Curlin,
Henderson, Sheppard).
Aquatic Primary Production: Phytoplankton kinetics (Stress,
Bloomfield, Koonce); Nutrient-phytoplankton dynamics (Koonce);
Aquatic macrophytes (Titus, Adams, Weiler, O'Neill, Shugart, Booth)
Aquatic Secondary Production: Benthos (Koonce, Peterson,
Perrotte, Park, Bloomfield, Sterling, Kitchell, O'Neill, Shugart,
Booth); Zooplankton populations (McNaught, LaRow, Bloomfield,
O'Neill, Shugart, Booth); Zooplankton vertical migration
(Bloomfield, McNaught); Fish biomass (Kitchell, Koonce, O'Neill,
Magnuson, Shugart, Booth).
Aquatic Decomposition : Decomposition (L, Clesceri,
Bloomfield, O'Neill, Shugart, Booth).
Aquatic Nutrients: Nitrogen (Dettmann); Phosphorus (Koonce,
Harris, Armstrong); Aquatic nutrients (Park, Koonce, O'Neill,
Bloomfield, Dettman, Shugart, Mankin, Goldstein)
Terrestrial Primary Production. Research in this area has
resulted in improved measurement techniques (Dinger, 1971a,
Strain ejt al. , 1971), data on forest canopies (Dinger, 1971b,
Mulroy et^ al. , 1971) , and greater knowledge on the effects of
radiation (Strain et_ al^. , 1971) , temperature (Mulroy, et al. ,
4-5
-------
1971), moisture and soil nitrogen stress (Richardson, 1971a, b) ,
and leaf temperature and light intensity (Gresham and Wuenscher,
1971) on primary production. A number of models have also
resulted, including some which will estimate stand biomass
(Ralston and Chapman, 1971; Higginbotham, 1971), standing crop
and net stand production (Harris et al., 1971) and one that
compares forest and agricultural productivity (Whigham et al.
1971) .
A model of the growth dynamics of loblolly pine was developed
(Murphy, 1971a), and the primary production responses of a
natural hardwood forest and a managed loblolly pine plantation
were compared (Kinerson, Dinger, and Harris, 1972). A photo-
synthesis model was also developed (Goldstein and Mankin, 1971)
as was a carbon budget for a hardwood forest ecosystem (Reichle
et al. , 1972). The latter indicated that net ecosystem production
was highly dependent on heterotrophic activity, particularly
decomposer metabolism. Numerous models of forest growth also
appear in Murphy et al. (1972).
In order to determine the level of simplification which
would be acceptable for a model of forest stand energy transport
and photosynthesis, three models of varying amounts of sophistica-
tion were explored (Sinclair, Knoerr, and Murphy, 1972). All
predicted the amount of photosynthesis and vegetative water loss.
The first was a complete micrometer logical model that calculated
the vertical profiles of various environmental parameters. The
second made the assumption of infinite eddy diffusivity values
(i.e., except for radiation, there were no vertical gradients for
environmental parameters). The third assumed that the entire
canopy was a single layer of leaves. The results of the first
two models were close enough to assume that the assumption of
the second model was acceptable. Results also showed the third
model was not acceptable.
A canopy model for natural deciduous forest (O'Neill et al.,
1972) assumes no vertical gradients of environmental parameters
except light and expresses photosynthesis as a function of plant
4-6
-------
water potential, environmental temperature, and physiological
time (an integral response of one""-or more environmental variables
over time).
The daily course of forest metabolism (net photosynthetic
assimilation and CC^ evolution in respiration) and the major
environmental controls were measured for a Liriodendron forest
(Sollins et al., 1973). This provided a data base for a series
of models which predict vari ation in forest metabolism and make
possible the assessment of impacts of change in the limiting
factors.
A deterministic model of forest biomass production and
turnover for a watershed (Goldstein and Harris, 1972) simulates
autotroph behavior in mineral cycling analysis. This model
divides a forest into tree diameter classes.i Four density-
dependent processes affect biomass (intrinsic growth, transfer
among size classes, death and ingrowth). Growth is limited by
maximum equilibrium biomass. Mortality increases as biomass
density approaches the biomass carrying capacity, which the rates
of other processes decrease. The ingrowth rate of a tree size
class is proportional to biomass of larger trees at some preceding
time.
Studies were also made on root production (Harris, Henderson
and Todd, 1972; Cox, 1972) and on a comparison of urban and
natural forest production (Lawson, Cottarn, and Louchs, 1972).
The results of the latter showed natural forest production =
812g/m2/yr and urban, 775g/m^/yr. Carbon flow and productivity
are further analyzed by Harris e_t al. (in press) .
Terrestrial Secondary Production was also investigated with
emphasis on standing crop of each component (state variable),
biomass turnover rates, and energy utilization at each trophic
level. The total energy flow and the partitioning of energy into
respiration, production, waste products, and mortality were
calculated.
In addition to the description of the productivity of the
food chains, studies in the deciduous forest concentrated on the
4-7
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regulatory function of animals in the ecosystem. Apparently,
animals (chiefly insects) consume only 5% of the annual produc-
tion of plants, while soil litter food chains process about
20-25% of the materials reaching them. The most important
decomposer group is the fungi and bacteria which have a dominant
role in mineralizing and holding nutrients during transfer from
detritus back to producer organisms. The role of microorganisms
in decomposition in the deciduous forest was investigated by
Ausmus and Witkamp (1973) . A dynamic model of insect grazing
in a forest canopy was devised by Goldstein and Hook (1972).
This canopy grazing model was developed and implemented to
determine insect consumption as a function of leaf generation
and time.
dHj(t) dGj(t) _ 1 _ Hj(t)
C1(t) = dt+ dtGj(t)
where Cj(t) = mean consumption rate for generation j at time t,
Hj(t) = mean leaf hole area for generation j at time t,
Gj (t) = mean gross leaf area for generation j at time t.
To obtain continuous estimates of gross leaf area and leaf hole
area, field measurements were fitted to the nonlinear function
y = a + ( 3 - a ) e ~At
where y = Gj or Hj, a = maximum observed area, g = minimum
observed area and X = growth rate parameter.
Net leaf area was determined for each generation through
time from Nj (t) = Gj (t) Hj (t)
These estimates were used to determine cumulative percent consumption for
each generation from
Xj (t) = /£ c . (t) dt . 100
Nj(t) + f Cj (t)dt
' o J
Total canopy consumption through time was estimated from
Y(t) = (l-v. NjXj] / £jVjN.
where Vj = ratio of the number of leaves from a sample in genera
tion j to the total number of leaves, and Nj = mean net leaf area
of generation j at time t.
4-8
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Results of this analysis for a tulip poplar (Liriodendron
tulipifera) canopy insect population show total insect consumption
of canopy foliage to be about 2.51% of the available leaf area.
Estimation of insect consumption by a single end-of-season
observation results in an estimate of three times the actual
value. However, this 2.51% consumption results in a 7.28% loss
of photosynthetic surface by September 20.
Terrestrial Decomposition
The rate of decomposition for hardwood and coniferous litter
were measured at Coweeta and at Oak Ridge. Liriodendron has a
halftime of 7.35 years when calculated using the lignin content
(exponential decay rate (K) = 2.078 - (0.097 X lignin content)),
CC>2 evolution can be related to litter temperature when Y =
mgCC>2/day/m2, x = temperature in °C, a = 696, b^ = 429, and
b2 = 29.33; Y = a + b2x + b2X2. Similarly, ATP content of soil
biota has been related to CC>2 evolution and ratios of C/N, C/P,
C/S, moisture, and weight of substrate (Ausmus and Edwards, 1972).
A seven component trophic model of decomposer activity as affected
by litter input, temperature, and moisture was developed for a
Liriodendron stand. Coupled to this trophic model are pools and
fluxes of Na, Ca, K, P, Mg, C, N, and S (McBrayer, 1971). A 22
compartment model for organic matter transfers in the Liriodendron
forest (Sollins, 1971) is constantly being revised and
incorporates the effects of substrate components with different
rates of decomposition on mineral transfer. Recent progress
in this area also appears in Gist (1971) and O'Neill (1972).
Aquatic Primary Productivity
Extensive modeling has been accomplished in this area
(Hasler and Koonce, 1971; Loucks, MacCormick, and Dettman, 1971;
Magnuson and Kitchell, 1971; Park and Wilkinson, 1971a, b).
Studies of productivity of aquatic systems in the deciduous
forest focused on algae and flowering plants. In order to
incorporate the results of extensive field and laboratory work
4-9
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on the photosynthesis, respiration,and growth of a submergent
macrophyte which dominates the littoral zone of many lakes in
the eastern U.S., a mathematical model for the growth of this
species (Myriophyllumj was developed by investigators at Lake
Wingra, Wisconsin (Titus et al., 1972). This model describes
the physiological processes of Myriophyllum in 10 depth classes
in the water column. The environmental variables, light
intensity, temperature, and carbon availability, are taken into
account at each depth. The results were expressed as standing
crop at each depth with the sum corresponding to the data on
total biomass.
A mathematical model of phytoplankton growth and nutrient
uptake was also developed and tested (Koonce and Hasler, 1972).
By providing a means of simulating algae replacement dynamics
throughout the year, this model may be useful in analyzing
different strategies of nutrient control which supress noxious
blooms.
Aquatic Secondary Production
Secondary production studies of aquatic systems were under-
taken at Lake George, New York. This work indicates that
Zooplankters are of little importance in the control of
phytoplankton in oligotrophic lakes (lakes with a small nutrient
pool) and in fact rarely utilize a significant portion of the
theoretical carrying capacity (K) (McNaught et al., 1972. They do
have great influence on aquatic nutrient cycles through
remineralization of certain nutrients and may account for the
high fluxes necessary for N and P to cycle through the system
rapidly enough for the productivity needs of such lakes.
A predator-prey biomass model has been developed based on
equators describing feeding, growth, respiration, excretion,
gamete production, and predatory and nonpredatory mortalities
upon temperature, size structure of fish population and various
density-dependent interactions and has been used to simulate
standing crop (biomass) of bluegills.
4-10
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The processes may be expressed as functions for nitrogen,
phosphorus, and/or energy as follows:
where:
C = AB + F + U + R+G
D = Food Intake
AB = Growth
F = Egestion
U = Excretion
R = Metabolism
G = Reproduction
Food Intake
The simple relationship
D = K A
where
D = the amount of food consumed per unit of time
K = a coefficient for turnover rate
A = the average amount of food in the stomach during
the time period
provides a direct means of analysing food consumption
when
D
A
max max
Dmax = maximum daily food consumption
K = turnover coefficient
Amax = maximum stomach content
The data can be taken from McComish's (1970) long-term ad libitum
feeding experiments (21.0°C and photoperiod (12L:12D)) using
total weight of chironomids consumed per day and weight of fish.
Values for Dmax (.027 .868 g dry food per day) were regressed
against average fish weight (wet wt , 1.07 132.74 g; n = 36)
and produced the equation
Dmax = -04108 (fish wt)
.61521
r = .97
Amax was determined by weighing the stomach content of satiated
bluegill giving maximum stomach contents of .0040 .2951 g dry wt
of live fish weighing .49 55.35 g; n = 56. The regression
equation was
4-11
-------
Amax = -00736 (fish wt)'84911, r = .89
At 21.0°C D
K = __max
Am ax
.04108 (fish wt)-61521
.00736 (fish wt)-84911
thus, K = 5.58152 (fish wt) -23390
The negative exponent substantiates the hypothesis. Previous
applications (Kitchell, 1970) indicate an accurate prediction
of the maximum rate of food consumption and should be equally
accurate at lower levels. Growth rates, particularly of species
with indeterminate size such as fish, are relatively good
barometers of changes in the ecosystem (Hall et al., 1970).
Growth of size of fish or of size of seals (Gerking, 1966)
manifest the difference between intake and the sum of all output
processes:
^|=D (F+U+R+G)
D- F
Assimilation efficiences (^FJ— x 100) are used to express egestion
rates.
Applicable assimilation efficiency of phosphorus by Lake Wingra
fish species are not available. Energy assimilation is generally
given as 80-851 (Mann, 1967) and nitrogen assimilation as 90-100%
Egestion rates are estimated by considering some knowledge of
food quality (DOM component):
F = K2C
where
F = rate of egestion
K2 = coefficient for a food type (% IM of dry wt)
C = rate of food intake
4-12
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Excreted carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus comprise an important
source of nutrient regeneration to the water column. Carbon
excretion (large as CC^) is considered as an output of the
metabolic process.
While phosphorus excretion has received little ecological
attention (Pomeroy and Kuenzler, 1969), the physiological
literature (Hoar and Randall, 1969) is helpful. Excretory
rates are
U = K + Cl Xx + c2 X2 + c3 X3
where
U = log excretion rate
K = constant
Xj = log fish weight
X2 = feeding level
Xv = temperature
cl' C2 ' C3 = regression coefficients
Basal metabolic level is approximated by c-^ X]_, while c2 X2 is
associated with feeding and Cj Xj with thermal conditions.
Generally c^ is 0.80 for metabolic studies (Paloheimo and Dickie,
1966; Kerr, 1971), but Savitz (1969) used 0.93-0.99 for excretion
of nitrogen by bluegills. Seasonal changes in gonad weight
and composition provide a measure of the fraction of assimilated
energy and nutrients expended in gamete production (LeCren, 1962).
The preceding model was designed to simulate growth of top
consumers in lakes (fish) and organized the biological components
into three levels: mass balance, equation of energy and nutrient
budgets at the organism level, interactions between individuals
at population level, and interactions between predator prey
populations across trophic levels. Also included were terms
for the influence of the real conditions, site structure of
4-13
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populations, and biomass exchange across trophic levels. The
model was validated by comparing simulation output and experi-
mental results on a study of bluegill (Kitchell et al., 1974).
A recent model by Smith et al. (,1975) is also of interest.
Aquatic Decomposition and Mineral Cycling
Productivity of the decomposers was measured in two ways
in the EDFB studies: (1) maximum growth rate of microbiota and
associated substrate turnover rates, (2) microbiological growth
rates measured by chemostat techniques and associated substrate
turnover. Heterotrophic microbiological activity in the
freshwater ecosystem was studied with a twenty-two compartment
decomposition process model of the carbon transfers. The model
includes anaerobic and aerobic interactions for the water column
and surface sediments, anaerobic interactions in deep sediments,
and thermal stratification between transfers in the epilimnion,
in the hypolimnion, or both. Organic carbon has been divided
to require or not to require prior hydrolysis before cellular
assimilation. The system is assumed to be reduced-carbon limited;
mixing of dissolved carbon is not considered and deep sediments
serve as a permanent carbon sink.
Microbial growth accounts for each transfer and implementa-
tion, or transport. In pure culture
dx/dt = yx Dx
or growth rate = (growth rate constant) (concentration of
cells)
(dilution rate constant) (concentration
of cells)
For mixed culture
dx/dt = yx pX
where p is a removal rate constant.
If changes in population type are minimal, microbial biomass
is estimated by ATP concentration. Steady state, biomass measure-
ments do not indicate turnover of organic material. The use
of a chemostat approximates the natural open system and permits
4-14
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measurement of the growth rate of a mixed population at steady
state from a knowledge of the volume (v) and flow rate (f).
The growth rate is u = f/v and the doubling time is v/f. C, N,
and P turnover is obtained by chemical analysis of influent
and effluent.
The yield coefficient (grams cells/grams substrate] is
required to convert values for growth rate into substrate
turnover numbers. Nitrogen and phosphorus turnover can be
determined by the analysis of influent and effluent of a
chemostat and the soluble and particulate COo and CH^ by moni
toring the off-gas. Concern about population changes during
chemostat operation can be minimized by operating close to the
dilution rate that produces the in. situ growth rate. A lake
water column nitrogen model was devised by Dettmann (1973)
and a lake water balance simulation model by Dettmann and Huff
(1972) .
Physical and Chemical Processes
Biological processes, such as productivity, are limited
by the availability of nutrients and by certain physical
properties of the environment. A number of IBP studies involved
estimating parameters of limiting physical processes through
physical and chemical studies of reaction rates, flows, and
transformations. Process equations showing the relation of the
estimated parameters to system components are basic to ecosystems
analysis.
Meteorological or climatological parameters -- In the EDFB,
studies of meteorological parameters were linked with primary
production research. Atmospheric processes affect energy exchange,
CC>2 + 02 transport and the temperature; therefore, measurement
of solar and net radiation, wind speed, air temperature and
humidity were made in connection with studies of photosynthesis,
respiration, and transpiration. Models of leaf and canopy energy
balance were developed and tested (Murphy and Knoerr, 1972), and
the relation of the physical measurements and process models
to C02 concentration, photosynthesis, and water loss were studied
(Murphy et al., 1972) .
4-15
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A more simplified meteorological model was also tested
(Sinclair, Knoerr and Murphy, 1972). This model can be imple-
mented with a limited number of atmospheric and vegetation
parameters. It agrees within 10% of the estimates made by the
more intensive model and may provide the basis for a fairly
wide application of this model in estimating the effects of
forest ecosystem perturbation and management.
Other advances in this area include a microclimate water
balance model (Goldstein and Mankin, 1972) and a computer-based
data acquisition system (Koonce and Hasler, 1972).
Hydrology. Within the Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome,
the watershed has been identified as the fundamental land unit
for defining and modeling ecosystems. Central to an ecosystem
model at this level of resolution are the hydrological processes
that determine water fluxes and storages within the drainage
basin (EDFB IBP 73-5). Water is essential not only to every
organism in the ecosystem but to every biological process:
productivity, mineral cycling and decomposition (Huff, 1975).
Parameters and quantitative models describing moisture supply
and movement are fundamental to an understanding of ecosystems.
Surface and groundwater hydrologic studies involve measurements
of precipitation, temperature, potential evaporation, geology,
soils, vegetation, interruption, infiltration, soil moisture
storage, surface flow,and groundwater losses. At several EDFB
sites, basic hydrological modeling was linked with root uptake
of water, transpiration and stomatal control. The resultant
model is capable of predicting changes in stream flow as a func-
tion of vegetation characteristics (i.e , effect of changes in
vegetation cover on hydrology) (sites involved -- Oak Ridge,
Tennessee; Coweeta, North Carolina; Lake Wingra, Wisconsin;
Lake George, New York).
Modeling activities in this area have resulted in a biome
watershed simulation model (Huff, 1971a, b), hydrologic
simulation of lake ecosystems, and a model of lake circulation
and material transport (Hoopes , Monkmeyer, and Green, 1971).
4-16
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The hydrologic simulation program (CHANSIM) was improved and
a program modification (DAMRUN) was developed that included
hydraulic effects of lakes or other impoundments located within
a drainage basin (Jacques and Huff, 1972a; Ivanson, Jacques,
and Huff, 1972).
Other advances in hydrological modeling relate to data
collection. Cullen and Huff (1972) give a description of the
land use categories necessary for parameterizing subbasins for
simulations. Soil mapping and characterization studies appear
in Huddleston (1972) and in Huddleston, Luxmore, and Hole (1972).
Soil-Plant-Water Relations. The water present in the
rooting zone influences stomatal opening, CC>2 uptake, and, sub-
sequently, primary productivity. Forest biome simulation models
allowed the investigation of variation in soil water stress as
a function of physical properties and geographic location.
Terrestrial nutrient cycling . Research in nutrient cycling
concentrated on two questions: What are the turnover rates
as functions of time, space, and environmental stress? What are
the sizes of the nutrient pools (especially N and P)?
In the deciduous forest the movement of the nutrient elements
N, P, K, Na, Ca, and Mg into, within, and out of the terrestrial
ecosystem were characterized. Substrate geology was found to
have a significant impact on nutrient input and output.
The pool size and cycling rates of individual system components
were assessed. Though absolute amounts of N, P, and K vary widely
in the vegetation, their distribution in the major vegetation
pools is similar (65% of each in woody material, 22% in roots,
13% in foliage). The vegetation as a whole stores 11% of the N,
4% of the P, and less than 1% of the K found in the ecosystem.
The surface litter layer holds most of the nutrients found in
the organic horizon but the mineral soil horizon is a much more
important nutrient pool.
Root mortality was shown to be the dominant process in
recycling N, P, and K from the vegetation pool to the soil. Litter
fall was next in importance for N and P, and foliage leaching
was next for K. The limiting factor in decomposition is the
availability of organic carbon.
4-17
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The N cycle of the deciduous forest is effectively closed
by incorporation of N in soil organic materials available for
subsequent plant uptake (Henderson and Harris, in press).
At Oak Ridge a study of the effects of N and P fertilization
on litter decomposition nutrients, and mineralization showed
that nitrogen addition enhances decomposition whereas phosphorus
fertilization has an inhibiting effect.
A mineral cycling model was developed by Gist (1971) and
other work on terrestrial nutrient cycling was published by Boyle,
Keeney, and Northup (1971) and by Endleman (1971) .
Aquatic Nutrient Cycling .- N and P are two most important
nutrients in lake ecosystems. Research on the cycling of these
elements encompassed field monitoring of N and P, laboratory
process studies, and development of models for Lake Wingra in
Wisconsin and Lake George in New York.
Watershed hydrologic models made it possible to couple
terrestrial hydrologic studies with studies of adjacent lake
circulation models. The result was a model which predicted the
fate of materials transported from terrestrial to aquatic eco-
systems. One such circulation model depicted the resuspension
or retention of nutrients and soil particles based on wind-shear
inputs and lake morphometry (Hoopes et al., 1972).
Other studies emphasized nutrient inputs and losses from
identifiable sources and sinks. The study of Lake George indicates
sewage is responsible for only 111 of the N but for as much as
861 of the P entering the lake (Aulenbach and Clesceri, 1972).
Detailed process models were developed for N and P cycling
in Lake Wingra. Phosphorus pool size, rates of turnover of its
various forms, and kinetics of uptake and release by organisms
were studied as were phosphorus exchange between water and sedi
ments. Inputs were monitored and a model of phosphorus cycling
was developed which described phosphorus transport through
food webs via biota simulation models, regeneration of phosphorus
from sediments, and phosphorus transport to the lake from ter-
restrial and geologic sources. A similar study was made of
nitrogen.
4-18
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Another study of nitrogen investigated the role of terrestrial
and atmospheric inputs in the control of seasonal variation of
total nitrogen in the water column. This model assumed that the
nitrogen content of lake water can be determined by abiotic
processes (atmospheric deposition and hydrologic transport) and
biological processes (nitrogen fixation, denitrification, remin-
eralization, sedimentation). Two coupled first-order differential
equations describe the nitrogen pool in the water body and the
labile nitrogen in the suspended detritus (Dettman, 1973) .
Simulation outputs for this model indicate that the system
is most sensitive to sedimentation and regeneration of nitrogen
from the sediments (Dettman, 1973) .
ECOSYSTEM LEVEL MODELS
The analysis-of-ecosystems programs of the IBP emphasized
research in the basic biological, physical and chemical process
of ecosystems for the first two to four years in order to advance
the understanding of these processes to the point that modeling
and analysis of entire ecosystems could be attempted. Character-
ization of the entire ecosystem and validation of these ecosystem
models was the primary concern of the later years of IBP.
The ecosystem-level models were to contain simplifications
and assumptions appropriate to a particular problem and were
assembled from individual biological, chemical, and physical
process models which described the current understanding of
subsystems. These models conceptualize the ecosystem as a
functional unit with recognizable boundaries and internal homo-
geneity. The boundaries, of course, are arbitrary and are placed
to give the ecosystem a full set of interacting processes and
to allow inputs and outputs across the boundaries to be measured
easily.
After establishing the boundaries of the ecosystem, a model
must identify all the significant components. The abiotic
components include the air, land, water (collectively, the abiotic
environment), and the biotic components include the producers
4-19
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(plants), consumers (animals) and decomposers (fungi and bacteria).
Ideally, the number of components necessary to account for the
significant ecosystem processes will be no more than several
hundred.
Smith (1970) suggests that the ecosystem might be described
by a series of tables specifying the amount of energy or elements
or other parameter in each of the components and the inflow and
outflow from these components. Another approach might be the
construction of a matrix which shows the rates of transfer of
energy or elements or other parameter between the components of
the ecosystem. The rows of the table represent the losses from
a component. The sum of these losses is the total rate of loss
to other components. The columns show gains for each component
and the column sum yields the total rate of gain from the other
components.
With this information, it is possible to write an equation
for the rate of change of each parameter for each component.
For component i:
dxi/dt = ai-Zi H- (yn + y2i +-.-+ yni) (yu + yi2 +---+yni)
This approach lends itself to computer simulation, beginning
with all the x-j^'s at their estimated levels and letting them change
through time according to the equation, dx^/dt.
Obviously, this approach is not adequate as each component
will simply change in the same direction at the same rate for
the duration of the simulation. A natural ecosystem responds
to change with changes in rates. A variable rate expressed as a
function of the system is needed. Each transfer rate is a set
of functions, an equation, which relates the rate to the factors
which govern it. Using these functions, a computer simulation
can predict how the system might respond to change (Smith, 1970).
In order to express rates as sets of functions, it is
necessary to estimate many parameters other than amounts and rates.
Smith specifies an open list of descriptors of each component.
These are in addition to the Xj_, a^, z.j, and y-j,- and like y- • and Zj_
are sets of functions. Examples of these descriptors are average
4-20
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size and number of individuals in a component and age structure.
A set of external input variables (Aj_) such as climate and
season are also included. With the inflows (a.^) , these externally
controlled variables influence, but are not influenced by, the
systems. The rates y— and z- which measure systems processes
are functions of the aforementioned amounts and rates.
A complete set of mathematical functions describing the
effect of external variables and relationships among internal
variables is an ecosystem model. It may be validated by specify-
ing the initial amounts (x^) and their distribution and a program
of input variables (Aj_ and a^) which change with time. The results
of the simulation are compared to field observations. A "valid"
model is one which reasonably simulates actual field observations.
The following is a partial list of developed ecosystem-
level models.
Ecosystem Models: Terrestrial ecosystem model (O'Neill,
Goldstein, Shugart, Mankin); Energy dynamics (Reichle, Edwards,
Harris, Shugart, O'Neill); Nutrients in manipulated ecosystems
(Gist, Waide, Site Investigators); Terrestrial nutrient cycling
(Henderson, Harris, Shugart, Goldstein, O'Neill, Reichle, Edwards);
Carbon flux in forest stands (Sollins); Stand nutrient budget
(Wells, Swindell); Watershed vegetation (Goldstein, Harris);
Land-water interaction (Dettmann, Huff, Harris); Hydrologic
transport model (Huff, Jacques, Goldstein, Mankin, Reeves, Miller);
Lake ecosystem analyzer (Park, Bloomfield, Sterling, Kohberger,
Wilkinson, O'Neill, Shugart, Booth, Koonce, Nagy); Littoral zone
model (Weiler, Adams, Gasith, Koonce, O'Neill).
Subsystem Models: Phytoplankton-zooplankton kinetics
(Bloomfield, Kohberger, Hwang, Park); Terrestrial primary produc-
tion (Murphy, Sinclair, Kinerson, Site Investigators); Stream
subsystem (Webster, Woodall, Barr, Elwood); Aquatic biomass
(MacCormick, Loucks, Kitchell, Koonce, Weiler).
Applied Models: DDT transport (O'Neill, Burke, Booth);
Aleut ecosystem (Hett, O'Neill).
Trophic Interaction Model: De Angelis et al., 1975.
4-21
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R _
1015
Rs _
1246
R
127
ATMOSPHERIC —|
CO-,
1765
TULIP POPLAR
11344 (+ 319)'
GROUND
COVER
50
61
RESPIRATION
ABOVE-GROUND
6 FOLIAGE 2
* FEEDERS <~~
0.21
/K«
RESPIRATION
SOIL
370
UNDERSTORY
SPECIES
1130 (+ 11)
495
193
MISCELLANEOUS-^R
CANOPY SPECIES
3395 (-23.1)
R,
52
STANDING DEADWOOD
100
R,-,
FINE ROOTS 202
(490 (+ 12)
^
133
SOIL, LITTER AND f-
DECOMPOSERS
14130 (+105)
49
103
Figure 4-1. Forest Ecosystem Biomass Budget.
Compartment values are grams of dry weight per square meter; all
transfer and inc:
(Sollins, 1971).
transfer and increment values (in parentheses) are g m~ yr
4-22
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Terrestrial Models of the Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome
Several ecosystem models of the deciduous forest were constructed
of sets of process models of nonlinear components (Solli-ns, 1971).
The terrestrial production model included submodels of primary
and secondary production, assimilation, and arthropod and micro-
bial decomposition. This model is capable of predicting the
response of the system to outside manipulation. Considerable
sophistication has been incorporated into the primary production
sections of the model, and stress is placed on the roles of the
consumer and decomposer organisms. In addition, the model is
being modified to incorporate the influence of water availability
and nutrient status on primary production (Shugart, et al., 1974).
Additional refinement is anticipated when a primary production
submodel (Murphy, 1972) is finalized, linking micrometeorological
processes to photosynthesis.
Another model for terrestrial consumer biomass considers
physiological, behavioral, and size distribution effects on
feeding, excretion, respiration, predation and natural mortality
(O'Neill et al., 1972) .
dx,
11 - 7 '
dt ^
ZW. . (1-e. . )
i Ji Di
x. +ZW. .
1 i Di
•Ex
xkWkl(t,S)
\ + 2\i
x .
: + i
K. L
i
.1 t t 1
Z1 + Z ,
] k
in
rr f , ,-1 -,
Z . = a . (t ,S)
W. . = W. . (t,S)x.
v ' J
K. x.
hmft c-v : 3 + 1
D'L^j^J v + -L
cm(S)x.
: 1
where
t is time,
S is a set of environmental factors such as temperature,
x. is standing crop of consumer group j,
x. is standing crop of group i, which represents a food
supply for consumer group j ,
4-23
-------
xk is standing crop of predator group k, which feeds upon
consumer group j,
x-j_ is standing crop of any other consumer group, 1, which is
also eaten by predator group k,
e^is the fraction of group i consumed but not assimilated,
k-; is the largest standing crop of group j which can be
supported by the environment (carrying capacity),
a™ (t, S) is a function which modifies feeding ('), mortality
('') or respiration ('"') due to events in the individual
consumers annual behavior cycle, e.g., going in or coming
out of hibernation,
b™ (t, S) is a function which modifies feeding ('), mortality
('') or respiration (''') due to birth and maturation of
young. For example, due to allometric relationships,
c1? (t, S) is a function which modifies feeding ('), mortality
(' ') or respiration (''') due to physiological factors,
for example, the dependence of rates on temperature,
W.. (t, S) is a function which expresses changes through time
in the availability of food source i to consumer j.
A study of the ecological effects of power plant siting was
conducted by applying portions of a preliminary regional model.
The size and location of a hypothetical power plant were predicted
from socioeconomic and land use simulation portions of the total
model. A Gaussian plume air diffusion model was used to predict
concentrations of SC^ and fly ash at grid points across the
region. Information from ecological literature was used to
predict damage to commercial crops. (Figure 4-2.).
While most models emphasize interseasonal dynamics, one
simulates primary production over greater time and spatial scales.
Regeneration, mortality and other processes affecting tree
populations on a total watershed have been incorporated into a
model that simulates long-term development of vegetation through-
out a heterogeneous forest system (Goldstein and Harris, 1972).
4-24
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co
O
O
co
co
»s
0
I-H
CQ
CQ
c
O
^
c
cd
r-i
fX
O
O
Nl
f
CQ
in
O
X
C
CQ
CQ
uo
CQ
CN
CQ
CD
Q
3
CO
CQ
0)
co
D,
CQ
s
O
Q
B-
'12
J13
J18
J23
J24
J25
J26
?26
J28
J36
736
C45
RC
J46
J48
B,
B(
B,
J62
J63
BR
56
V
86
'67
U
58
'68
V
78
Figure 4-2. Biomass Flow Matrix
R&ad from the left-hand margin to the upper margin (McCormick,
et al., 1974). Bj is Phytoplankton.
4-25
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Solar
Temperature-* Photosynth.
Nutrient
K3
Tl
H-
OP
CD
0 O
cr 3
I f
in CD
W HJ
rt S
H O
P P-
y CD
W h-'
Hi •
CD
P
r+
P
Phytoplankton
18
Modified from MacCormick et al. 1972
Terrestrial Input
Littoral Input
-------
Inputs
Photosynthesis
Littoral zone and terrestrial exports
Principal system variables
BI Phytoplankton
62 Zooplankton
B3 Benthos
64 Fish 1 (up to yearlings)
B5 Fish 2 (2 yr or older)
65 Suspended detritus
By Permanent sediment
Bg Dissolved organic matter
Outputs
Ri-Respiration (temperature dependent)
Deep geologic sediment
Transfer terms
C-ji-Feeding (temperature dependent)
D-JJ -Mortality (nonpredatory)
F^-: -Egestion
U^-j-Exudates and excretion
S^j-Sedimentation
Vjj-Heterotrophic processes (temperature dependent)
Figure 4-3. (Continued)
From MacCormick et al.
4-27
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Aquatic Models of the Eastern Deciduous Forest Eiome
Lake models. Ecosystem models were also developed for the
aquatic systems of Lake Wingra (MacCormick ejt al. , 1972) and
Lake George (Park et al. , 1972; Park et al., 1975; Scavia et al., 1975),
WINGRA II, a nonlinear model of a pelagic-zone lake drew
on advances in process subsystems models, particularly the algae
production and secondary production mentioned under Ecosystem
submodels - productivity. The table of compartments of WINGRA II
shows inputs and outputs, and the transformations are shown on
pages 25, 26, and 27. The photosynthesis submodel
of Koonce and Hasler (1972) is the primary input to the system,
while the principal process components include feeding flux,
maintenance loss (respiration), excretion, egestion, mortality
(non-predation), decomposition flux, and carbon uptake and loss.
Eight diffenential equations describe the rate of change of
biomass in the eight compartments of the open water biomass model
(phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, fish 1, fish 2, suspended
detritus, primary sediment, and dissolved organic matter).
The Lake Wingra model has been used to model the response
of a lake to nutrient loading from urban sources (Huff et al.,
1973). It was also used to stimulate algae biomass in a proposed
river impoundment (Dettmann, mimeograph). These studies suggest
that algal biomass will be changed little because the nutrient
loading is low or is diverted by passing through areas with
considerable vegetation.
CLEAN (Comprehensive Lake Ecosystem Analyzer) is a
generalized, yet realistic, lake ecosystem model developed in
response to the need for large-scale, integrated approaches to
the proper management of complex lake ecosystems. Park et_ al. ,
(1974) documents this model which was developed by a team of
aquatic specialists and systems modelers and designed as a
diagnostic tool to study the effects of nutrient enrichment and
other perturbations on the lake ecosystem. CLEAN was formulated
so as to be applicable to both Lake George, New York, and Lake
Wingra, Wisconsin, and is presently tested with data from both
sites. Thus far, realistic simulations have been obtained and
4-28
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the validity of the model has been established on three bases:
(1) three five-year simulations beginning at different levels
of biomass ran to the same steady state values; (2) relation-
ships among the trophic level compartments were shown to adhere
to ecologic theory; (3) predictions were shown to be reasonably
accurate for the planktonic component (Scavia, 1974). CLEAN
represents an advance over previous models; individual ecologic
processes are represented in greater detail and a broader
spectrum of mechanisms involved in lake ecosystem dynamics is
included.
The model is actually a collection of submodels, each
focusing on a specific component of the system. It is presently
formulated as 38 coupled ordinary differential equations each
representing one of the most important compartments of the lake
ecosystems. Subprogram functions exist for principal physiologic
and ecologic processes. Detailed interactions appear on page
30. The driving variables include incident solar radiation,
water temperature, nutrient loadings, wind, changes in barometric
pressure, and influx of dissolved and particulate organic matter
for a terrestrial system. A separate circulation model is now
available to be run with CLEAN** (Park et al., 1974)** and a
lake water balance submodel is being implemented.
CLEAN employs modular programming and is written in FORTRAN
for both UNIVAC and IBM time-sharing systems (p. 30).
River-Model. Unfortunately, the ecological modeling of
aquatic systems other than lakes have not received as much atten-
tion. A river model appears in Appendix V-B of Alternatives for
Managing Wastewater in. Chicago--South End Lake Michigan Area
(Corps of Engineer, Chicago District). This model, represented
schematically on page 31, divides the river or stream into
ecologically meaningful reaches. Inflow from upstream, base
flow, inputs of treated effluent, untreated storm water, and
fresh water from an external source, as well as outflow downstream,
are represented.
4-29
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BLUE-GREEN
NUTRIENTS
DECOMPOSER
NANNOPHYTOt
PLANKTON
NET PHYTO-
PLANKTON
MACROPHYTES
HERBIVOROUS
CLAOOCERANS
ERBSVOROUS
COPEPOOS
SUSPENDED
ORGANIC MATTER
OMNIVOROUS
ZOOPLANKTOH
BUJEGILL-LIKE 8ENTHIC
SEGMENTED
ORGANIC MATTER
BASS-LIKE
FSSH
FISH
Figure 4-4. INTERACTIONS OF CLEAN
Provided by R. A. Park
4-30
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TREATMENT PLANT
STORMED EFFLUENT
TREATED
EFFLUENT
\
UPSTREAM
j\\\.
REACH 1 REACH 2 REACH 3 - DOWNSTREAM
4
FRESH WATER / / ^^-^^^ /
SOURCE l^^^^ ai w
BASE FLOW H fe
_-»* rr
Upstream
S 2
1™
Oxygen u
Demanding
Water 02 N P Wastes Biota
•-HCNCO r-H(N^O i— 1 CN tO r— 1 CM tO i— 1
-------
t-o
W)
X
^
2
cti
O4
O
^
cx,
bO
C
•H
T3 t/1
C
-------
In addition to inputs and outputs, an adequate model must
describe processes occurring within the stream-river, such as
aeration, sediment-water interchange, plant production and death,
and downstream transport. Without these processes the model
could not predict accurately downstream nutrient and oxygen
levels.
The basic structure of this stream-river model can be summa
rized in transfer matrices (p. 32). The rows represents sources of
water, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, biota and oxygen-demanding
wastes and the water in reaches 1, 2, and 3. The rows labeled
"02," "N," "P," "biot," and "oxygen "demanding wastes" represent
these materials in the three reaches, and the "sediments" rows
refer to sediments beneath the reaches. The column labels are
similar with the addition of two sinks, labeled "decomposition
products" and "flow downstream,"
The"X's"in the matrix represent potential transfers of
exchanges. An 'X' in row 1, column 1, represents the flow of
water from upstream into reach 1. An 'X1 in row 13, column 16,
represents the uptake of nitrogen from water in reach 1 by biota.
That matrix which deals directly with stream variables
(water, etc., in reach 1, 2, 3) may be called the system matrix,
and the entire matrix, including inputs and outputs, the expanded
matrix. Then a simple model dealing only with inputs, outputs,
and stream transport involves only transfers represented in the
input rows and output columns of the expanded matrix and the
square 3x3 submatrices on the main diagonal of the system
matrix. On the other hand, transfers such as biotic uptake and
sediment-water interchange, involve only those processes represented
in submatrices off the main diagonal of the system matrix. These
may be ignored in simple water quality models but must be con-
sidered when water quality improvement by biological activity
is considered.
This matrix may be a useful tool in the assessment of water
quality if the "X"s are replaced by measurements or good estimates
of transfer rates.
4-33
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Estuary Model. A carbon flux model for a coastal marsh
ecosystem (Wiegert et al., 1974) is comprised of 14 state
variables or compartments (7 biotic, 7 abiotic). The compartments
of the model can be connected with flow pathways and listed
sequentially by donor and recipient.
There are two basic types of mathematical representation
of carbon flux. Transfers to the nonliving (abiotic) compart-
ments are usually represented by linear, donor-determined,
donor-controlled equations (carbon flux between the two compart-
ments is equal to the product of a specific rate of transfer
and the standing crop of the donor).
Transfers into a living (biotic) component are usually
represented by a nonlinear, discontinuous, recipient-determined
but donor-and recipient-controlled equation. In this case, carbon
flux is a complicated function of the specific rate of carbon
flux, standing crop of recipient, sum of all specific rates of
loss from recipient, and vegetation feedback factors.
The computer program for this model is available from the
senior author.
Simulations were run on the marsh as a closed and as an open
system. The model was also subjected to sensitivity analysis.
MODELING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS
A landscape consists of many ecosystems, and a unit of polit-
ical decision-making consists of many landscapes. Studies over
large areas require that ecosystem-level models be combined in
an hierarchical fashion into a landscape-level model. Such
landscape-level models may have ecological, as well as political,
meaning as in the case of watersheds and air basins.
The first work addressing ecosystem processes at the land-
scape level involved characterization of ecosystem types and the
changes from one type to another (US participation in the IBP,
1974) . Some of these changes were the result of natural processes
(succession) while others were a result of human disturbance.
4-34
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The total primary production for several states was estimated
through the use of data on crop yield and forest growth and by
analytical techniques reducing such data to total biomass (one
example Stearns ejt al. , 1971) .
The geographical distribution of production within each
state was investigated in relation to patterns of large scale
climatic and geologic variations. Production estimates of certain
categories omitted in the earlier estimates (suburban land,
wetland, rights of way) improved earlier total estimates.
Computer-drawn maps of primary production for the U.S. were
made possible by studies of climatic parameters (evapotranspira-
tion) and biomass production (Lieth and Box, 1972).
A regional model of land use change (Hett, 1971) for five
counties in Tennessee was constructed from a series of aerial
photographs taken from 1939-1964. Each major cover type in the
region is a state variable, and the model uses differential
equations to predict change from one land type to another.
This land use model has been extended by succession models
which incorporate processes on a large scale. A model for the
eastern deciduous forest describes succession from one type of
forest to another as a result of intrinsic species replacement
(natural succession) and disturbance by man. This constant-
coefficient, linear compartmental model simulates changes through
time in the areal extent of major forest types in Michigan in
the absence of perturbations (Shugart et al., 1972). Each compartment
represents forest type. (Fig. on p. 36). Within each
compartment or module, three submodules correspond to seedling-
sapling, pole timber, and saw timber size classes. Data for the
model were obtained from the ecological literature and the U. S.
Forest Service. The linkages among compartments represent the
intrinsic replacement patterns of these forest types. The
equilibrium print of the model simulation provided an estimate
of the potential composition of the vegetation of the region and
served as a reference point from which to examine the role of
natural and man-induced disturbances and how they affect the
extent and composition of forests in the region.
4-35
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XERIC
INTOLERANT OAK
JACK PINE
RED OAK - WHITE OAK
1-
^ 2 :> 3
t
RED PINE
WHITE .
PIN CHERRY
1 >,2
MESIC
FIR-SPRUCE
BIRCH-ASH-HEMLOCK
1 =3. 2 ==» 3
HYDRIC
WHITE CEDAR
1 > 2
BLACK SPRUCE
1 ^ 2 _ 3
TAMARACK
Figure 4-7. Regional Succession Model
Dominant tree species are identified: 1 = seedling- sapling ,
2 = poletimber, 3 = sawtimber. Arrows represent transfers
of acreages of land from one forest type to another.
Modified from Shugart et al . 1972.
4-36
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This model has been tested in the Great Lakes Region
(Shugart ejt al. , 1973) and in the Piedmont region of the south-
eastern U.S. (Johnson and Sharpe).
Recently, Carlisle of the Rensselaer Fresh Water Institute
at Lake George has proposed to aggregate Hett's land use model
and Shugart's succession model into one model which would simulate
the effects of urbanization upon the Lake George Drainage Basin.
His objective is to establish a correlation matrix between land
use types and independent variables other than time. Specifically,
this will involve the determination of empirical relationships
between transportation factors and agricultural and natural areas.
Such a study may improve current understanding of land use change
and result in a model with the potential to predict the effects
of public intrastructure investments which accelerate urbaniza-
tion.
Terrestrial trophic models and aquatic trophic models can be
developed to express processes at the regional level. This
requires a constellation of models, one for each hierarchical
level within each vegetational cover class. Both terrestrial and
aquatic models need to be structured so that linkages can be made,
e.g., between a model for a stream and for a downstream lake to
which the stream exports organisms, detritus, and nutrients. The
terrestrial model can be linked to socioeconomic models, by
expressing the portion of biomass in various compartments that
are inputs to the human system. A regional ecological model
could consist of modules on (a) air diffusion modeling, (b) hydro-
logic modeling, (cj terrestrial trophic modeling, (d) aquatic
trophic modeling, (e) rare and endangered species and historical
site mapping and computer retrieval of locations, and (f) concept
development for human activity modeling. Such clusters of models
do not appear to be operational at this time.
METHODS AND TECHNIQUES FOR MEASUREMENTS
Methods for measuring primary production and productivity
appear in manuals prepared by the IBP and published by Blackwell
4-37
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Scientific Publications, Oxford. These include: Neubould (1967),
Ricner (1971), Milner, Hughes, Gimingham, Miller and Slatyer (1968) ,
Golley and Buechner (1968), and Vollenweider (1969). Secondary
production and productivity are covered in Petrusewicz and
Macfadyen (1970), Edmonson and Winberg (1971), Sorokin and Kodota
(1972), and in Grodzinski and Klekowski (1972). The harvest method
is discussed Ovington (1957), Bray, Lawrence, and Pearson (1959),
Odum (1960), Whittaker (1961, 1962, 1965), Kira and Sheidi (1967),
Satoo (1970), and Bray and Dudkiewicz (1963). Methods for basal
area proportions are found in Ando (1965) and other three measure-
ments procedures are in Peterken and Newbould (1966), and Whittaker
and Woodwell (1969). Gaseous exchange methods are discussed in
Tranquilliri (1959), Mooney and Billings (1961) , Odum (1965), and
Woodwell and Whittaker (1968). Watson (1952), and Blackman (1968),
provide growth analysis, and light chlorophyll relationships are
given in Odum, McConnell, and Abbott (1958), Ryther and Yentsch
(1957), and Bray (1960). Soil respiration measurements are found
in Reiners (1968) and soil climate measurements in Szarnowski
(1964). Evapotranspiration is given by Lieth and Box (1972), and
by Lieth (1973). Also useful are Allen (1972), Inoue (1968), Odum
(1956), Perry (1972), Odum and Kuenzler (1963), Petrueswicz
(1967), Phillipson (1970), Schwoerbel (1970), Wineberg (1971),
and Lieth (1974).
Transfers of energy and nutrients should be considered
together in any assessment of ecosystems. Static chemical inven-
tories can be supplemented by inferences about the flows of
various elements (Ovington, 1962, 1965), Duuigneaud, and Denaeyer-
DeSmet (1970).
A dynamic approach relies on radioactive tracers, isotopes
of the elements under study. Olson (1968) discusses a transfer
model which allows one to represent the proportions and proba-
bilities of transfer of different elements within and between
different compartments of the ecosystem as a matrix. Methods of
tagging trees with radioactive isotopes and the results of the
4-38
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the Oak Ridge investigation on mineral cycling are also discussed.
Some methods for the study of soil microorganisms important to
mineral cycling are described in Parkinson et al. (19710, and
Phillipson (1971).
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tions of crops and forests by a Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Model
(SPAM). In Modeling the Growth of Trees, Proceedings of a
workshop on Tree Growth Dynamics and Modeling, Duke Univer-
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Ando, T. 1965. Estimation of dry-matter and growth analysis of
the young stand of Japanese black pine (Pinus thunbergii).
Adv. Front. Pint. Sci. 10:1-10.
Aulenbach, P. B., and N. L. Clesceri. 1972. Sources and sinks
of nitrogen and phosphorus: water quality management of
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Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.
Ausmus, B. S., and N. T. Edwards. 1972. The relationship between
two microbial metabolic activity indices: ATP concentration
and C02 evolution rate. EDFB Memo Report 72-93. 19 pp.
Ausmus, B., and M. Witkamp. 1973. Litter and soil microbial
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Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN., pp. 183.
Blackman, C. E. 1968. The application of the concept of growth
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F. E. (ed). Functioning of Terrestrial Ecosystems at the
Primary Productivity Level. UNESCO, Paris, pp. 243-259.
Boyle, J. R., D. R. Keeney, and M. L. Northup. 1971. Terrestrial
nutrient cycles in relation to soils and land use. EFB Memo
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Bray, J. R. 1960. The chlorophyll content of some native and
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Bray, J. R., D. B. Lawrence, and L. C. Pearson. 1959. Primary
production in some Minnesota terrestrial communities for
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Bray, J. R., and L. A. Dudkiewicz. 1963. The composition, bio-
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Cox, T. L. 1972. Characterizations of production, mortality and
nutrient cycling in root systems of Liriodendron seedlings.
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Cullen, R. S., and D. D. Huff. 1972. Determination of land use
categories in the Lake Wingra basin. EDFB Memo Report
72-43. 17 pp.
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model for trophic interaction. Ecology 56:881-892.
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nitrogen concentration in the Lake Wingra water column.
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Dettman, E. H. Mimeograph. Algal biomass projections for the
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Dinger, B. E. 1971a. An apparatus for in situ gaseous exchange
analysis. EDFB Memo Report 71 74. 7 pp.
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in a yellow poplar forest. EDFB Memo Report 71 76. 6 pp.
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D. E. Reichle (ed), Temperate Forest Ecosystems; Ecological
Studies 1. Springer-Verlay, Berlin. 304 pp.
Edmondson, W. T., and G. G. Winberg (eds). 1971. A manual on
methods for the assessment of secondary productivity in
fresh waters. IBP Handbook #17.
Endelman, F. J. 1971. A systems analysis of Wisconsin nitrogen
cycles. EDFB Memo Report 71-17. 21 pp.
4-40
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Gerking, S. D. 1966. Annual growth cycle, growth potential, and
growth compensation in the bluegill sunfish in northern
Indiana Lakes. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada 23:1923-1956.
Gist, C. 1971. An analysis of mineral pathways in an arthropod
community. EDFB Memo Report 71-127. 8 pp.
Goldstein, R. A., and J. B. Mankin. 1971. Space-time considera-
tions in modeling the development of vegetation. EDFB Memo
Report 71-138. 11 pp.
Goldstein, R. A., and W. F. Harris. 1972. SERENDIPITY A
watershed-level simulation model of forest biomass dynamics.
EDFB Memo Report 72-168. 12 pp.
Goldstein, R. A. and R. I. Van Hook, Jr. 1972. A dynamic model
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Goldstein, R. A., and J. B. Mankin. 1972. PROSPER: a model of
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IEEE, SHARE, SCI. San Diego, California.
Golley, F. B., and H. K. Buechner. 1968. A practical guide to
the study of the productivity of large herbivores. IBP
Handbook #7.
Gresham, C. A., and J. E. Wuenscher. 1971. Effect of light
intensity and leaf temperature on the resistance of loblolly
pine fascicles to water vapor and carbon dioxide diffusion.
EDFB Memo Report 71 111. 7 pp.
Grodzinski, W., and R. Z. Klekowski (edsj. 1972. Methods for
ecological bioenergetics. IBP Handbook #24.
Hall, D. J., W. E. Cooper, and E. E. Werner. 1970. An experi
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of freshwater animal communities. Limnol. and Oceanogr.
15(6):839-926.
Harris, W. F. 1971. The measurement of root biomass in a forest
ecosystem. EDFB Memo Report 71-71. 7 pp.
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bround production and estimates of standing biomass on
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Harris, W. F., G. S. Henderson, and D. E. Todd. 1972. Measure-
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woody components of forest litter on Walker Branch Watershed.
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Harris, W. F., P. Sollins, N. T. Edwards, B. E. Dinger, and H. H.
Shugart. Analysis of carbon flow and productivity in
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J. Franklin, and D. Goodall, eds. Proceedings IBP, V,
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Hasler, A. D., and J. F. Koonce. 1971. A process study of
nutrient uptake rates and phytoplankton growth kinetics.
EDFB Memo Report 71-56. 12 pp.
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approach to characterization of the nitrogen cycle in a
deciduous forest watershed. Ln. B. Bernier, and C. H. Winget,
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de 1' universite Laval, Quebec, Canada. In press.
Hett, J. M. 1971. Land use changes in East Tennessee and a
simulation model which describes these changes for three
counties. EDFB Report, ORNL-IBP-718. Oak Ridge National
Lab, Oak Ridge, Tenn. 56 pp.
Hett, J. M., and R. V. O'Neill. 1971. Systems analysis of the
Aleutian Ecosystem. Human Ecology (underconsideration).
Higginbotham, K. 1971. Growth dynamics within the loblolly pine
canopy. EDFB Memo Report. 71 107. 7 pp.
Hoar, W. S., and D. J. Randall (eds). 1969. Fish physiology,
Volume I, excretion, ionic regulation and metabolism.
Academic Press, New York. 465 pp.
Hoopes, J. A., P. L. Monkmeyer, and T. Green. 1971. Investiga-
tions of circulation, temperature, and material transport
and exchange in Lake Wingra. EDFB Memo Report 71-48. 6 pp.
Hoopes, J. A., D. Patterson, M. Woloshuk, P. Monkmeyer, and T.
Green. 1972. Investigations of circulation, temperative
and material transport and exchange in Lake Wingra. EDFB
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Memo Report 72-117. Univ. Wisconsin, Madison, WI. 8 pp.
Huddleston, J. H., R. J. Luxmoore, and F. D. Hole. 1972. Soil
and landscape characteristics of hydrologic response units
in the Lake Wingra basin. EDFB Memo Report 72-100-
Huff, D. D. 1971a. Hydrologic simulation and the ecological
system. EDFB Memo Report 71 7. 16 pp.
Huff, D. D. 1971b. Hydrologic transport of materials in eco-
systems. EDFB Memo Report 71-44. 7 pp.
Huff, D. 1975. Hydrologic transport models. In D. E. Reichle,
J. Franklin, and D. Goodall (eds). Proceedings IBP, V,
General Assembly Symposium, Productivity of World Ecosystems,
Seattle, Washington, N.A.S.
Hutchinson, B. A., and D. R. Matt. 1972. Distribution of solar
radiation within a deciduous forest. EDFB Memo Report 72-
170. 26 pp.
Inoue, E. 1968. The CC>2 concentration profile within crop
canopies and its significance for the productivity of plant
communities. Ln Eckard (ed), Functioning of Terrestrial
Ecosystems, pp. 359-366.
Ivarson, W. R., J. E. Jacques, and D. D. Huff. 1972. Report on
implementation of lake and reservoir flow routing into the
HTM. EDFB Memo Report 72-135. 31 pp.
Jacques, J. E., and D. D. Huff. 1972a. Open channel flow
simulation with the hydrologic transport model. EDFB Memo
Report 72-134. 19 pp.
Johnson, A. W., R. W. Alderfer, R. P. Mclntosh, A. E. Stiven,
F. H. Wagner, J. A. Wiens. 1975. An Ecological glossary
for engineers and resource managers. The Institute of
Ecology. Madison, Wisconsin.
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northern Georgia Piedmont. Forest Science (In Press).
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matical models in ecology. Analysis of ecosystem IBP.
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Unnumbered.
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Kerr, S. R. 1971. Prediction of fish growth efficiency in
nature. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada 28:809-814.
Kinerson, R. S., Jr., B. E. Dinger, and W. F. Harris. 1972.
Analysis of primary production for natural and managed
forest ecosystems. EDFB Memo Report (in prep.).
Kinerson, R. S., Jr., K. 0. Higginbotham, and R. C. Chapman.
1972. The dynamics of foliage distribution in a forest canopy
EDFB Memo Report 72-78. 8 pp.
Kira, T. and T. Shidei. 1967. Primary production and turnover
of organic matter in different forest ecosystems of the
Western Pacific. Jap. J. Ecol. 17:70-87.
Kitchell, J. F. 1970. The daily ration for a population of
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CASE STUDY OF WASTEWATER TREATMENT FACILITY INVESTMENT AT
LAKE GEORGE, NEW YORK
Richard A. Park and David P. Carlisle*
With mounting concern over the secondary effects on
natural and agricultural environments, particularly from urbaniza-
tion, it has become apparent that an objective, analytical
strategy is necessary to assess the subtle, but far-reaching,
impacts of wastewater treatment facilities (WTF) and highways.
Because such a strategy could profit from recent interdisciplin-
ary modeling experience and findings in ecosystem science, The
Institute of Ecology (TIE) was given the charge of developing a
generalized methodology.
The Institute of Ecology was asked to undertake one or
more case studies, including preparing the ecology section for
an Environmental Impact Assessment on a wastewater treatment
facility, to validate or amplify the generalized methodology.
Clearly the cost of implementing an entire EIS was beyond the
resources available for this study. Thus, an existing or pro-
posed wastewater treatment facility would have to be considered
in an area where an adequate data base and ecological infra-
structure was available. Specific attention was to be given to
one of the biome types modeled by the US International Biological
Program (IBP). Lake George, New York, one of the sites in the
Eastern Deciduous Forest Biome, was chosen as the example for a
case study, in part because of its proposed comprehensive sewerage
proj ect.
Since resources and time were limited the decision was
made to pass through the steps and analyze the procedure rather
than to emphasize the mere completion of EIS statement. Thus,
Department of Geology and Center for Urban Environmental Studies,
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12181.
5-1
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the emphasis in the case study is on an amplification of the
methodology rather than on achieving a complete end product. This
constitutes an abbreviated version of the ecological section of
an EIS.
Figure 5-1.
Comprehensive sewerage study
map, Glens Falls-Lake George/
New York
Figure 5-2.
Approximate location of sug-
gested highway in town of
Brunswick, Rensselaer County,
New York
For illustrative purposes and to provide greater depth in testing
the methodology, some of the data necessary to assess the effects
of a proposed bridge and a supporting highway system in Rensselaer
County, New York, were also considered.
In practice the generalized methodology can be expressed
in the following simplified flowchart. The case study is intended
to exemplify the elements and execution of this comprehensive ap-
proach. A more detailed version of the flowchart is presented in
the Summary.
5-2
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Figure 5-3.
Simplified flowchart for generalized methodology
DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE
Land Uses
The New York State Land Use for Natural Resources In-
ventory (LUNR) dataset (New York State Office of Planning Ser-
vices, 1974) was particularly valuable as a regional data source
for the case study. Based on the interpretation of 1968 aerial
photographs, this dataset enumerates 130 land-use characteristics
useful for planning purposes (Appendix A) for each Km^ cell.
Availability of the data in computer-processible form (as well as
on overlays) meant that the salient land-use characteristics of
the 640 cells in the Lake George area could be displayed in
tabular and map form at the beginning of the study. The data
were extremely useful.
5-3
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Figure 5-4. LUNR overlay showing land uses
A word of caution: regional data banks often contain
abnormally large numbers of errors. Tedious analyses, encoding,
and keypunching by individuals with no direct interest in the
data take their toll. Therefore, data should be field checked
and subjected to other tests for accuracy. In the case study
the LUNR data were found to deviate consistently from the classi'
fication manual for certain categories such as marshes, hamlets
and estates. Consequently, allowance was made for this idio-
syncrasy in interpretation (which was probably specific for the
photo interpreter who worked on the Lake George photos).
Forests
LUNR does not subdivide forests into types, yet the
vulnerability of the various Adirondack forest types to human
impact differs considerably. Therefore, it was necessary to
augment the LUNR data base with vegetational data gathered by a
graduate student in biology. Using field checks and stereopairs
of. U-2 color infrared photos available from NASA (obtained
5-4
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.5-5
through the New York State Geological Survey) he was able to
delineate the 7 principal forest types for an area of 640
Figure 5-5.
Print of U-2 Infrared Imagery: Original in Color
square kilometers in approximately 4 days. This information
formed the basis for modeling forest types in the impact area.
Commercial forest statistics by district and forest
survey data by county were available from the U.S.D.A. Forest
Service, but these data are too coarse for most impact studies.
For the Lake George study area, data were also available from
the Department of Environmental Conservation foresters and from
the Adirondack Park Agency community-reimbursement tax files.
In addition, data are available on forest production by county
(Ohlsen, 1956). These data were found to be of little use in
our study.
5-5
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•mill fllT*-* "•> br tUnd-.ii.
of 9m lorfc hr JUt. T
29,400
305,400
1*1,300
373.WO
371.100
68,500 U.7DO
101,900 6,1M)
176,«D 14,700
276,200 ifl,600
262,000 75^00
aaaAoo 35^00
att.ioo 19,600
1U.300 21^00
Jflk.TOO 66,200
o'too
68,700
42,800
130,900
270,000
701,900
705,900
199,400
«,7DO
184,900
972,800
1,023,500
927,800
2,253,500
1,301,000
969,500
704,100
1,355,800
1lMlo«M 2^*0,900 •
Poreat type
White pine
Henlook
White pine-hardiraod
Spruce-fir and
apruoe-flr h&rdHoo
Other aoftwood
types
Su(^r-naple-be«oh-
yellow birch
Bed oak
torthern hantaood-
whlto pine
Aab-ela-aaple
Oak-white pine
Other hardwood
typee
All typee
Orcmlng
Thouaaod
cu.ft.
115,700
96,800
i.9,700
<1 9,000
17,700
325,200
68,200
31,500
23,000
22,200
37,200
796,200
otook
EqulTalcgt
in oorda
1,446,200
1,210,000
621,200
112,500
221,300
4,065,000
852,500
393,800
287,500
277,500
465,000
9,952,500
Saw-
timber
Thousand
bd.ft.
351,700
261,800
137,500
20,800
21,600
783,300
154,900
82,000
54,600
43,600
17,800
1,929,600
Figure 5-6.
Examples of available forest statistics
Wildlife
Wildlife data were more difficult to obtain. Data on
game animals whose hunting is controlled are available from state
wildlife biologists. However, this is restricted to numbers
legally taken; in the Rensselaer County case study area the deer
data are unreliable because the majority of the deer are taken
illegally (Vance, personal comm. ) .' Furthermore, this is due in
part to the proximity of an urban area. The presence of other
animals including rare and endangered species can be inferred by
the presence and continuity of suitable habitats. If accurate
wildlife data were deemed important, it would be necessary to con-
duct surveys, including road traverses at times of peak animal
activity, noting animal crossings and calls. We felt that the
qualitative and semi-quantitative information available from
experienced wildlife biologists was sufficient for judging poten-
tial impacts.
Fish
Fish data could have been obtained through creel
5-6
-------
censuses and Fish and Wildlife stocking records, but would have
been biased toward key game species. Again, the habitat approach
Figure 5-7.
Fish species sought by
fishermen at four lake study
areas (Kooyoomjian, 1974)
Figure 5-8.
Location of stocked streams in
Warren County, New York (NYS
Department of Environmental
Conservation)
(noting temperature, bottom type, and availability of food) could
have been used to indicate presence of different forms. Detailed
surveys are impractical because of resource requirements and the
impossibility of getting accurate data for most species, as
indicated by the IBP experience at Lake George.
Other Aquatic Life
Because Lake George has been intensively studied by
the IBP, seasonal biomass patterns are reasonably well known for
other trophic levels. However, few lakes have been so thoroughly
studied because manpower, funding and time are limited. If the
lake ecosystem is of concern, minimal data requirements for impact
analysis are: winter dissolved phosphate level, summer chloro-
phyll values, and some indication of the summer phytoplankton
5-7
-------
composition (diatoms, green and blue-green algae). These can be
Figure 5-9
Lake George biomass data
obtained with little effort; but, obviously, advance planning is
necessary! Depending on conditions, dissolved oxygen and/or
biological oxygen demand measurements may be sufficient for
streams already heavily impacted. Otherwise, bottom fauna and
fish are useful indicators of the condition of stream ecosystems.
The Lake George data were used to calibrate CLEANER, an aquatic
ecosystem model, so that detailed impacts could be forecast.
Agriculture
Agricultural census data including crops, acreages and
income, were available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Because these are listed by county, application to the impact area
requires some extrapolation. If the objective had been to actually
write an EIS, the County Agricultural Extension Agent would have
been consulted. A publication on the "Economic Viability of Farm
Areas in New York State" (NYS Office of Planning Coordination,
1969) is of some help. Similar inferences could be made using
the agricultural census data and a soil map. Depending on the
5-8
-------
Figure 5-10.
Darker Shading Indicates Greater Viability of Farm
status of agriculture in an impact area, this information may
be essential (agriculture is insignificant in the Lake George
region).
Soils
Soil maps were available from the U.S.D.A. Soil Conser-
vation Service for both the case study areas. Furthermore, an
extensive catalog of soil uses is available in draft form for
New York State (Cornell University, 1972).
SUlUBIUTT OF SOIL A5 SOURCE C
L FEATURES UTtCTIKC aptplFlEP EHSlHEEHINS U
...
s
„
...
"H"
:•
-.*i
.,.„
!_»
^JM-l-
' 1
JJTLFS
r
F
fss
«: r
;
^.
u&
,..,,
"'.;•':;'
JiiS^
-1-'-'—
_
liiDjcni
U1M5
Figure 5-11.
An Example of Soil Usage Information (Cornell University, 1972)
5-9
-------
Soil capability maps were also available, presenting
in summary form the soil limitations on construction.
Figure 5-12.
Land Capability in Rensselaer County, New York
Topography
Information on elevations, slopes, and topographic
"grain" were easily obtained from U. S. Geological Survey topo-
graphic maps. Such information is important in understanding
patterns of microclimatic control on vegetation and the disposi-
tion of corridors for future development and transportation.
Taken in conjunction with soil characteristics, the slopes
indicate impediments to urban growth, which should be con-
sidered in the environmental analysis. We incorporated the
2
mean slope for each Km cell into a dataset to be used in
modeling.
5-10
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Figure 5-13.
USGS Topographic Map for
Brunswick, New York
Figure 5-14.
Slope Map for Brunswick, New
York
Figure 5-15.
Map Showing Impediment to Growth in Lake George Area
Hydrology and Geology
Hydrology and groundwater hydrology data could have been
obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey, with particular atten-
tion to surface and groundwater flow records and to the distri-
bution of recharge areas. Depths to the water table could have
5-11
-------
been inferred from the soil map. In actuality these data were
available through the IBP study and through a comprehensive study
of the town of Lake George conducted by the Adirondack Park
Agency. Such data are necessary for preparation of an adequate
EIS.
m
Figure 5-16. Groundwater Recharge Area, Town of Lake George, N.Y.
Geologic data may be of prime importance in regions
where factors such as slope instability, drainage, or deflation
are problems. Reports describing and mapping the surficial ge-
ology of both Lake George and the region that includes Brunswick
are available from the NYS Geological Survey. For these regions
knowledge of the surficial geology was of little additional help,
Figure 5-17. Surficial geology map of Capital District
5-12
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Figure 5-18.
Location of Glacial Sand Deposits in the Capital District
Water Chemistry
Extensive data on water chemistry are available for
Lake George and its drainage basin because of the IBP study and
the interest of the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation,
This has facilitated the computation of a nutrient budget for
Lake George (Table 1). A similar budget should be prepared for
each major water body in an impact area. Increasingly data are
available from local sources. The water chemistry of two reser-
voirs in the Rensselaer County study area have been analyzed,
first by a National Science Foundation sponsored student re-
s«earch project and later by concerned town Conservation Advisory
Councils. If data had been lacking, guesstimates would have been
made on nutrient loadings using the findings of Shannon and
Brezonik (1972) and other, more recent, EPA-supported studies.
Climate
Climate data were obtained in tabular and computer-
processible form from N.O.A.A. for the weather stations near Lake
5-13
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Table 5-1
Estimated Phosphorus and Nitrogen Budget
for Lake George, New York; Courtesy of
N. L. Clesceri, D. B. Aulenbach, and J. J. Ferris
Sources
Runoff
Precipitation
Sewage Treat-
ment Plant
Effluents
Septic tank
Effluents
Lawn Fertilizer
Total
Sinks
Outflow at
Ticonderoga
Sedimentation
Retention
Surface loading
Phosphorus
% of Total
kg Sources
2890 37.1
2400 30.8
0 0
2300 29.5
208 2.6
7800 100
% of Total
Sinks
2040 26.2
5760 73.8
73.8
0.0684 g/m2/yr
Nitrogen
% of Total
kg Sources
86,700 43.1
84,600 42.1
18,000 9.1
9,580 4.8
2,080 1.0
201,000 10.0
% of Total
Sinks
62,800 31.2
138,000 68.8
68.8
2
1.76 g/m /yr
5-14
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George. Adjacent weather stations provided insights into the
micro-climate effects in the area. In particular, the difference
in elevation of the Glens Falls Airport and the Glens Falls Farm
station often results in a pronounced difference in late spring
snowfall - a difference that affects the distribution of plant
GLENS FALLS AIRPORT
JULY-DEC 1972
Glens Rills AP
nnrJIIInnllnn
Jncl,«
- eo
res MAR APR
Figure 5-19. Weather Records [plots courtesy of S. Katz)
communities and that results in costlier snow removal (and better
skiing) for the higher elevations. However, we did not use this
information directly.
ANALYSIS OF DATA
Mapping
Most data were already available in map form (see
above). With the data in machine-processible form, which is a
requisite for most analyses, it was also possible to take advan-
tage of programs that are generally available for the routine
mapping of spatial data using computer facilities.
SYMAP, a series of programs developed at Harvard, is
available at many computer centers. For the Lake George study
5-15
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we used the LUNR-compatible PLANMAP program - an offshoot of
SYMAP developed by Cornell. The program is able to search through
the regional data base, locating cells with the combination of
ffl
Figure 5-20.
PLANMAP Output showing Forest Cover in the Lake George Region
characteristics specified by the user. The data values can be
weighted, and cells meeting specified criteria can be excluded
in the printing (for example, cells with a large percentage of
water as shown above). Use of overprinting results in a high-
lighting of patterns that can be visually interpreted. In the
Lake George area we found that because of inappropriate choices
of colors to denote differing densities of characteristics, the
resulting maps were more easily interpreted than the correspond-
ing color maps that were available.
Multivariate Analysis
With the data in computer-processible form other proce-
dures were also used to search for environmental relationships -
procedures that can consider a number of co-occurring character-
istics simultaneously. These are referred to as multivariate
techniques and are primarily useful in permitting the impact
5-16
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analyst to gain a "feel" for the data quickly and objectively.
Cluster analysis - was used to classify two different
sets of data into respective groupings.
The land-use data were clustered in order to determine
existing patterns of usage in the Lake George area. First the
characteristics were analyzed in order to identify the character-
istics that tend to occur together - including the obvious
grouping of lake and lakeshore characteristics and the less
obvious grouping of income-intensive horticulture, specialty farms
and light manufacturing with utility lines. Cells that were
similar were also identified and, by means of a matrix presenta-
tion, they were compared with the clusters of characteristics in
order to understand the overall patterns of land use in the im-
pact area.
Hint
«* « « «
°;»««
• « ®
Figure 5-21.
Comparison of Clusters of Cells and Clusters of Land Uses;
Diameters of Circles are Proportional to Area of Land Use in Cell
The ecological data were also clustered in order to
determine ecological types that occur in the area. These were
then mapped.
5-17
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A similar approach had previously been used by Bloomfield
(1972) to classify sediment samples from Lake George into environ-
mental groups on the basis of their constituent diatom compositions.
CZa
Figure 5-22. Environmental Groups of Diatom Samples (Bloomfield, 1972J
Ordination - using the same basis for computation of
similarities as cluster analysis, points representing the cells
were arrayed in two-dimensional space on the basis of their dis-
similarities to each other, and available information was plotted
in the resulting model. Of particular interest is the way in
which environmental gradients representing varying degrees of
environmental impact were inferred from the distribution of dia-
toms in the study by Bloomfield (1972). The clusters were mapped
over the area of the lake using patterns chosen to emphasize the
nutrient-enrichment gradient. The relationship between nutrient
enrichment and villages around Lake George is evident and is a
strong indication of the need for better sewage treatment.
5-18
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o
Figure 5-23.
Ordination of Diatom Samples and Clusters (Bloomfield, 1972)
Figure 5-24.
Map of Diatom Groups in Lake George; Density of Pattern
is Indicative of Nutrient Enrichment (Bloomfield, 1972)
5-19
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ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS
Ecologically Sensitive Areas
The identification of sensitive ecological types may
arise from the multivariate analysis (see above) or may be the
result of a substantive study by a panel of specialists. A survey
of the Town of Lake George by Adirondack Park Agency personnel
resulted in the identification of nesting grounds, deer yards,
and bogs harboring a rare and endangered species of turtle.
These were considered to be unique natural areas worthy of pro-
tection. Likewise, wetlands, stream banks, sand plains, and
steep shorelines critical to the functioning of the ecosystem
were identified.
CRITICAL NATURAL
AREAS
Figure 5-25.
The Locations of Unique and Critical Natural Areas
in the Town of Lake George (Adirondack Park Agency)
During the course of the case study public parks, forest-
preserve tracts and environmentally-oriented recreation areas were
noted. The location of archaeological and historical sites and
houses might also have been noted, as in the Brunswick area.
5-20
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Figure 5-26.
Location of Parks and Forest-Preserve Tracts in the
Lake George Region (as denoted by dark shading)
.
• : •• '••
:
Figure 5-27.
Historic Houses and Sites in the Brunswick Area
5-21
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If the area were fossiliferous, unusual and unique fossil locali-
ties would have been noted (one does occur just north of the
Brunswick area). Likewise, mineral and rock localities should
be recorded and afforded protection.
Environmental Perception
Identification of scenic vistas and open spaces that
should be protected was based on driving through the area and
subjectively evaluating the views.
Lake George
Brunswick
Figure 5-28. Scenic Vistas Worthy of Protection
Identification of other aesthetic characteristics is
a little more difficult. Questionnaires have been used at Lake
George and at three other lakes with dissimilar characteristics
to determine the environmental perception of recreationists,
cottage- and homeowners and businessmen (Kooyoomjian, 1974;
Kooyoomjian and Clesceri, 1974). Data are available showing how
each of these groups and constituent sub-groups perceive numerous
aspects of the lake environment. Considering that the response
may be positive or negative, the data can be used to predict
5-22
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differing usage patterns for a range of water-quality states
A7 ^MI nui if Wai
B).. *3.> »T.» «J
Be 17.2 »-» 4§|
M.I 11.! H.«
•• B*nif>wi 1 I.I 4.1 1 • 1.1 i.t I.*
TM*I <«ut. 1
•>*»»^m J_lfift^ tt£** ttU_
1 tt.t r%a HJ_
i.n ?.« i.ii
i.M i.u • a
A7 M i BJ
Coorge JB.5 19.t
Figure 5-29.
Survey Results Indicating Effect of Water Quality on Recreational
Usage at Oligotropic (George and Schroon) and Eutrophic (Oneida
and Saratoga) Lakes; A7-general recreationists, B4 and B5-cottage
and homeowners, C, D and E-commerce, F2 and F3-fishermen
(Kooyoomjian, 1974)
Such a survey is very time-consuming. However, a
simple, easily analyzed questionnaire can be used to answer the
basic question: What environmental aspects do the residents
consider worth saving or improving?
Existing Land-Use Plans
The Lake George case study area is largely within the
Adirondack Park and is therefore protected by a comprehensive
land use and development plan. The plan is based on considera-
tion of: existing uses and growth patterns, physical limitations
of soils and slopes, unique features, wildlife habitat, rare or
endangered fauna and flora, fragile ecosystems, historic sites,
proximity to critical state lands, and the need to preserve the
open-space character of the Park. However, the "intensity guide-
lines" for privately-owned lands permit a density of housing in
5-23
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excess of that presently in much of the area other than Lake
George Village. Clearly, if the construction of the wastewater
treatment facility were to stimulate increased development, the
Park plan in its present form would do little to discourage it.
Figure 5-30.
Planning Documents, Pertaining
to the Lake George Area
Figure 5-31.
Adirondack Park Agency Land
Use Plan (APA, 1974)
For this reason, if this study were part of the preparation of an
EIS on the sewerage system, consideration would be given to the
zoning required to mitigate the effects of stimulated development.
ECOSYSTEM AND LAND-USE DYNAMICS
Historical Framework
Previous ecosystem states and responses provide a clue
to the continuing vulnerability and resiliency of an area. Three
approaches have been found to be useful in the Lake George area:
1. The most obvious approach is to examine historical records,
which are readily available. The study areas were intensively
farmed in the early 1800's, with sheep grazing the slopes that
were too steep to till. However, soil erosion and other
factors led to the gradual abandonment of agriculture.
5-24
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Figure 5-32.. Original Plat Map of the Lake George Area
Consideration of the present forest ecology is also informa-
tive and readily accomplished. Most of the area is in a
relatively early stage of forest succession, marked by dense
underbrush, and both pioneer and successional tree species.
Stone walls, fruit trees and naturalized herbs are the only
direct evidence of the previous dominance by man. The eco-
system is well on the way to recovery, and the pattern of
succession is evident.
Less easily obtained but of equal value are the findings of
paleolimnology. The nutrient enrichment of Lake George cor-
relates directly with the colonization by European Man as
shown by the abundance of eutrophic-indicator diatoms in
radiocarbon-dated cores. Furthermore, nowhere in Lake George
is the present water quality comparable to that which existed
prior to colonization (Del Prete, 1972).
5-25
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20 , 30 .
-------
form, it was possible to calculate yearly rates of change in
land-use categories and to determine relationships to site-
specific characteristics. Furthermore, computer-derived maps
were printed for each characteristic and time period.
ANALYZING ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS
Models
The case study illustrates the use of two types of
models that have arisen from the IBP Eastern Deciduous Forest
Biome project. The first is an empirical model and the second
is a functional model.
For the purpose of simulating land-use changes and
accompanying terrestrial ecosystem changes in the Lake George
area we adapted the land-use transfer approach of Hett (1971).
Changes in land use were determined for a 20-year period using
aerial photographs and supplemental data (see previous section).
However, in order to assess environmental impact it was necessary
to disaggregate the model spatially so that each Km^ cell could
be simulated separately according to its site-specific character-
istics. These characteristics, such as slope, soil type, and
zoning restrictions, were modeled as enhancement or reduction
terms that would change the transfer rate. The submodel for
medium-density residential property is given as an example.
WDIUM-DEftSITY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY CRrO
• *A| * "(II)F:CI * °<»>f"i * °<«>fo
- Xj FOR JIK LAND USI
F(lLOfl) + F(8O*,SOIL>
STOCHASTIC SWITCH,
- PROPORTION TRAHS ERRED TO RH FROM J™ LAW tfHl
INACTIVE Aa 1CULTURE
WUSH (i™ TYPE)
FWEBT (i™ TYPB)
LW-DEHI1TY BHIDEHTIAL
OR FM« RH TO UUID USEt
tfAN TRANSFER RATS
HI8HMAY CUSS
SLOPS™ MEAN TOP06RAPM1C BLOM
ZONIN* AND LAND-USE RMULATIONS
DISTANCE FROM CITY
Figure 5-34. Medium-Density Residential Property Equation
5-27
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A modified version of the forest succession model of
Shugart, Crow and Hett (1973) was coupled to the land-use trans-
fer model so that succession could also be simulated. The result
is LAND (Land-use ANalytical Descriptor). The principal trans-
fers are indicated below, where the categories (based largely on
LUNR) are: Ac - corpland; Ai - inactive agricultural land; Fc -
brushland; Fn - forest; Fp - pine plantation; Rk - shoreline
residential property; Cs - shoreline commercial property; Fl, Rm
and Rh - low-, medium-, and high-density residential property;
and E - sand and gravel pits.
Figure 5-35.
Hierarchy of land-use transfers in LAND
Although there was not opportunity to implement it with-
in the time constraints of the case study, our intent is to in-
clude a routine for predicting the presence or absence of selected
wildlife species in each cell.
Information on preference of habitat, requirements for
habitat continguity, and tolerance of Man was obtained through
discussions with state wildlife biologists. With this knowledge
it is a straightforward programming task to transform predicted
5-28
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land uses and forest types into species-specific habitats; even
a mix of cover and feeding types can be considered as a linear
combination of land-use and forest-type characteristics. Subse-
quently, with the exception of deer it can be assumed that if the
habitat is present the animal will be present.
In order to investigate the impact that varying nutrient
and siltation loads would have on water quality we used CLEANER,
a simulation model that was first implemented for Lake George.
CLEANER is a very complex model that embodies a great deal of
Figure 5-36.
Principal Compartments in CLEANER
information about the functionalities of lake ecosystems (Park
and others, 1974). Because it has a functional basis, it seeming-
ly can be used for a variety of lakes, with appropriate calibration
(Park, Scavia and Clesceri, 1975). The model performs well for
mesotrophic Lake George and eutrophic Saratoga Lake, New York.
The generality of the model is presently being tested with data
from six very dissimilar European lakes and reservoirs (Park,
1975). It can be accessed from remote terminals by EPA personnel
using the Optimum Systems Incorporated (OSI) facility (Scavia,
and Park, in preparation).
5-29
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Other models developed in the Eastern Deciduous Forest
Biome were available but were not used in the case study because
of difficulty in obtaining sufficient data. These models include
TEEM (Shugart and others, 1974), which can be used in studying
the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and HTM (Huff, 1972), which
has proven useful in studying the effects of urban runoff (Huff
and others, 1973).
If the impacts on the smaller lakes were investigated,
as they should be in a full-blown EIS, then Vollenweider's (1969)
model would have been used to predict algal response.
Impact Flowcharts
Many impacts are not amenable to modeling, but rather
are best determined on the basis of the insights and experience
of environmental specialists. The difficulty with this type of
intuitive approach is that it does require a breadth of training
in environmental sciences. Therefore, in order to implement it
there should be an in-house team representing terrestrial and
aquatic biology, geology, environmental engineering, agronomy-
soils, and planning.
No attempt was made to develop an exhaustive flowchart
for the case study. However, flowcharts are given in succeeding
sections as indications of what might be done.
Matrix Approach
Attempts to use the matrix of Leopold and others (1971)
in the Lake George study resulted in frustration because of the
arbitrary nature of the ratings. Secondary impacts of wastewater
treatment facilities and highways do not lend themselves to this
type of superficial analysis. However, the detailed matrix of
Rowe and Blackburn (1975) seems quite applicable and would have
been used, with region-specific modifications, if an EIS were
actually being written.
SEQUENCE OF ANALYSES
There should be a definite strategy for analyzing the
5-30
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environmental impact of an infrastructure investment, such as a
WTF or highway. This strategy should embody a logical sequence
of considerations, beginning with an examination of the effects
of no action, proceeding through an analysis of project alterna-
tives and finally weighing the consequences of further public in-
vestments necessitated by the resulting urbanization.
Projection of Change Without Additional Human Intervention
In order to assess the consequences of not building the
wastewater treatment facility at Lake George, we would have run
LAND using the assumption that previous land-use trends would
continue, but in moderation because of recently inacted land-use
legislation.
CLEANER was run assuming gradually increasing nutrient
loading rates from the increasing numbers of septic systems. As
one might expect, the predicted water quality gradually worsened
as indicated by the increase in taste- and odor-producing algae,
the increase in blue-green algae, and the decrease in the Secchi
disc readings.
< 20
£
DISC
1
PHOSPHATE LOADING
Figure 5-37.
Predicted changes in algae and Secchi disc readings
5-31
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An impact flowchart prepared by a multidisciplinary
team can formalize the consensus as to environmental relationships
and can emphasize the trade-off between the primary impact of no
action and the secondary impact of stimulated urbanization.
T Fi
REDUCTION IN
NUTRIENTS
UTILIZATION
OF LAND
INCREASED
BOATING S
FISHING
INCREASED OIL
POLLUTION
INCREASED
TURBIDITY
CHANGE IN
FISHERY
INCREASE
IN LAWNS
SPECIES
^-FERTILIZATION
INCREASE IN
DOGS t CATS
INCREASE IN
UTILITY LINES
LOSS OF
SCENIC VISTAS
IV
LOSS 0
UNIQUE . . „
ECOSYSTEMS \ *
I v\ INCREASE IN
' 3&ROADS
INCREASED X^*
GRAVEL DECREASE
EXTRACTION/ IN FORESTS
^ I / /->*
CHANGE IN
VE6ETATIONAL
TYPES
DISRUPTION OF
DRAINAGE
"fSTiciDES^ INCREASED
DESTRUCTION \ "°ISE
OF SENSITIVE
QE
HETI
LOSS OF HABITAT
CONTINUITY
INCREASED
LITTERING
INCREASE IN
SOLID WASTE
Figure 5-38. An example of part of an impact flowchart
Projection of Changes Accompanying Each Project Alternative
Implementation of the models LAND and CLEANER to examine
developmental patterns and consequent effects on the terrestrial
and aquatic ecosystems in relatively straightforward. Construc-
tion of a WTF removes the restriction placed on housing develop-
ment by soils that are unsuitable for septic systems. This is
handled in LAND by removing the site-specific soil reduction term,
thus greatly increasing the probability of development in certain
cells. The change from forest and brushland to lawns results in
a change in nutrient loadings that can be "guesstimated" using
the present relationships between loadings and land uses in the
drainage basin (see Table 1). These new loadings are then used
to drive CLEANER or to calculate new algal productivity using
Vollenweider's empirical model (Vollenweider, 1969). Changes in
5-32
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primary and secondary productivity, including nuisance algae and
fish, and in physical-chemical characteristics, such as water
transparency, can be diagnosed directly using CLEANER.
Projection of the Incremental and Synergistic Effects
LAND could be used to investigate the incremental ef-
fects of a highway, whose construction would be justified by the
increased development. Changing the "distance" or travel time
parameter in LAND has a significant effect on subsequent predic-
tions of development and hence ecosystem impact. To go a step
further, by making road construction a dynamic variable in the
program, the continuing effect of habitat subdivision on intolerant
species such as bear could be simulated.
The formulation of a flowchart is helpful in presenting
the subtle interrelationships of incremental effects. Due to the
critical driving time to Glens Falls, the "gentleman farmer" ef-
fect exemplifies a possible relationship that may eventually occur
in the case study area.
INCREASED
DAMAGE FROM
DOG PACKS
ADDITIONAL
HIGH-SPEED
ROADS
SHORTER
DRIVING •
TIMES
FURTHER
STIMULATION Of
GROWTH
INCREASE IN
BRUSHLAND
SUCCESSION
MOSAIC O"F
VEGETATION
INCREASE IN
PINE PLANTATIONS
TOLERART WILDLIFE
Figure 5-39.
Segment of Impact Flowchart with Incremental Effect
Resulting in "Gentleman Farmer" Environmental Mosaic
5-33
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SUMMARY
In summary, the case study, by means of selected examples
illustrates the implementation of the generalized methodology in a
specific area and with a specific public investment. A detailed
flowchart of the case study follows. It can be seen that the
generalized methodology is both feasible and, with appropriate
modifications, applicable to the needs of environmental impact
statements and assessments in widely differing geographic areas.
FORESTS
WILDLIFE
FISH
OTHER.AaUAT.IC L,FE
GEOLOGY
CLIMATE
CLUSTER ..
ANAL
"^A
YSIS
LAND-USE
CAPABILITY
UNITS
\
MAP OF 1 \
IMPEDIMENTS TO \
CLUSTER J ECOLOGICAL
AWLYSIS~ TYPES
Figure 5-40. Flowchart of Case Study - Inputs to Land
5-34
-------
NO CHANGES
IN PARAMETERS LAND USES
».
^
MAPS *?
, \ \
v& \<*.
NUTRIENT j^. \
^ Q. (2)
' 1- ^ ^TB 1
> n
CLIMATE
\ fl
FISH '
OTHER AQUATIC LIFE
WATER CHEMISTRY I
'"^•^__ CHANGE
AMENITY
IWER
/
rx /
AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEM
1 '
ENV
N PER
CHA
IROf*€MTAL
CEPTION
RACTERISTICS
LAND
ADDITIONAL
HIGHWAYS
- MAPS
DIAGNOSIS OF
INCREMENTAL AND
SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS
LAND
DELETE SOIL
CONSTRAINTS
LAND USES
MAPS
LAND USES
MAPS
DIAGNOSIS OF
OWNGES ACCOMPANYING
EACH PROJECT
ALTERNATIVE
Figure 5-41. Flowchart of Case Study - Output from Land
5-35
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We are particularly grateful to Paul Marean, who was
responsible for much of the biology and all the photo interpre-
tations; without his contribution this case study would not have
been possible. We are also very appreciative of the help and
encouragement given by Carol St James in the earlier stages of
the study. The assistance of Robert Haimes and Steven Chisick in
programming and running multivariate analyses is likewise acknowl-
edged.
Several agencies and many individuals were very coopera-
tive in providing material during the course of the study. Among
these are the staff of the Adirondack Park Agency, including
Robert Craig; the staffs of several divisions of the New York
State Department of Environmental Conservation, including Russell
Mulvey, Steve Warne, John Hastings, Eugene McCaffrey and Merrill
Robinson; Margaret Baldwin of New York State Office of General
Services; Gloria Carey and Robert Crowder of the Office of Plan-
ning Services (now defunct); Marion Gardner, Lillian Jankowski
and Arlene Larsen of Rensselaer's Office of Computer Services; and
James Quinn of the Computing Center at the State University of
New York at Albany.
5-36
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Adirondack Park Agency, 1973, Land Use Planning for the Adirondack
Park.
, 1974, Adirondack Park Land Use and Development Plan.
, 1975, Land Use Planning Process, Town of Lake George,
(draft) .
and New York State Department of Environmental Conser-
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Bergstrom, A. S., 1975, Deer Habitat Using L.U.N.R.: New York
State Department of Environmental Conservation, L.U.N.R.
Status Report, Memorandum.
Bloomfield, J. A., 1972, Diatom Death Assemblages as Indicators
of Environmental Quality in Lake George, New York:
unpublished Masters thesis, Rensselaer Polytechnic
Institute, Troy, New York, 86 pp.
Capital District Regional Planning Commission (CDRPC), 1970,
Sewer and Water Facilities Analysis.
, 1970, Inventory of Land Use.
Cornell University, Department of Agronomy, Ithaca, New York, and
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
1972 Soil Survey Interpretations of Soils in New York
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Del Prete, A., 1972, Postglacial Diatom Changes in Lake George,
New York: unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York, 110 pp.
Hans Klonder Associates, Inc., 1971, Comprehensive Plan for Town
of Brunswick, New York.
Hett, J, M, , 19.71, Land Use Changes in Eastern Tennessee and a
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Huff, D. D., 1972, HTM Program Elements, Control Cards, Input Data
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J. F. Koonce, W. R. Ivarson, P. R. Weiler, E. H.
Dettmann, and R. F. Harris, 1973, Simulation of Urban
Runoff, Nutrient Loading, and Biotic Response of a
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Kooyoomjian, K. J., 1974, The Development and Implementation of
A Questionnaire Survey Data Base For Characterizing
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Fresh Water Recreational Environments, Ph.D. Thesis,
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and N. L. Clesceri, 1974, Perception of Water Quality
by Select Respondent Groupings in Inland Water-Based
Recreational Environments: Water Resources Bulletin,
Am. Water Resources Assoc., Vol. 10, p. 728-744.
Lawler, Matusky and Skelly Engineers, 1974, Description of Warren
County Sewerage Project.
New York State Office of Planning Coordination, 1969, Economic
Viability of Farm Areas in New York State.
, 1971, New York State Development Plan - I.
New York State Office of Planning Services, 1974, LUNR Classifica-
tion Manual.
New York State Parks and Recreation, 1972, New York State Outdoor
Recreation Facilities Inventory, User Manual.
Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, U.S. Department of Agri-
culture Forest Service, 1975, Forest Statistics for New
York^-Forest District No. 11; Forest Statistics Series
New York No. 11.
, 1955, Forest Statistics for New York,
, 1967, Preliminary Forest Survey Statistics.
, 1969, A Glimpse at New York's Current Timber Resource,
U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Research Note
NE-95.
Ohlsen, Edward F. Von, 1956, Distribution of Timber Cut by Species
and County in New York State: State University of New
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-------
York College of Forestry at Syracuse University.
Park, R. A., 1975, Generalization and Verification of a Model for
Simulating Lake Ecosystems: National Science Foundation
Grant.
, R. V. O'Neill, J. A. Bloomfield, H. H. Shugart, Jr.,
R. S. Booth, J. F. Koonce, M. S. Adams, L. S. Clesceri,
E. M. Colon, E. H. Dettmann, R. A. Goldstein, J. A.
Hoopes, D. D. Huff, Samuel Katz, J. F. Kitchell, R. C.
Kohberger, E. J. LaRow, D. C. McNaught, J. L. Peterson,
Don Scavia, J. E. Titus, P. R. Weiler, J. W. Wilkinson,
and C. S. Zahorcak, 1974, A Generalized Model for
Simulating Lake Ecosystems: Simulation, August, p. 33-
50.
, D. Scavia, and N. L. Clesceri, 1975, CLEANER, The
Lake George Model, In: C. S. Russell (ed.) Ecological
Modeling in a Management Context: Resources for the
Future, Inc.
Rensselaer County Department of Planning and Promotion, 1973,
Rensselaer County: Transportation Plan.
Riekert, Charles A., 1971, Warren County Data Book, Compilation
of Data Pertinent to Planning and Development in the
County of Warren: Warren County Planning Board.
Rowe, P. and J. Blackburn, 1975, Land Use and Environmental Input
Matrix: unpublished diagram.
Scavia, D. and R. A. Park, in preparation, A User's Manual for
CLEANER.
Shannon, E. E., and P. L. Brezonik, 1972, Relationships Between
Lake Trophic State and Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loading
Rates: Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 6,
p. 719-725.
Shugart, H. H., T. R. Crow, J. M. Hett, 1973, Forest Succession
Models: A Rationale and Methodology for Modeling Forest
Succession Over Large Regions: Forest Science, Vol. 19,
No, 3, p. 203-212.
, R. A. Goldstein, R, V. O'Neill and J. B. Mankin, 1974,
5-39
-------
TEEM, A Terrestrial Ecosystem Model for Forests:
Oecologia Plantarum.
Stern, H. I., 1971, A Model for Population-Recreational Quality
Interactions of a Fresh Water Site: Rensselaer Poly-
technic Institute Operations Research and Statistics,
Res. Paper 37-71-P4, 24 pp.
U. S. Department of Agriculture, 1970, The Timber Resources of
New York State: Forest Service Resource Bulletin NE-20
, and New York State Department of Agriculture and
Markets, 1967, Statistics From the U.S. Census of
Agriculture in New York State by Counties.
, and New York State Department of Agriculture and
Markets, 1972, 1969 U.S. Census of Agriculture - New
York.
Vollenweider, R. A., 1969, Moglichkeiten und Grenzen elemtarer
Modelle der Stoffbilanz von Seen: Arch. Hydrobiol.,
Vol. 66, p. 1-36.
5-40
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APPENDIX A - Land Use Categories in LUNR
Agriculture
Urban Inactive
Forest Brushland
Forest Lands
Plantations
Lakes and Ponds
Artificial Ponds
Point Data
Streams and Rivers
Mileage
Marshes, Bogs
Wooded Wetlands
Residential
High Density
Medium Density
Low Density
Strip
Hamlet
Estate
Shoreline
Point Data
Rural Non-Farm
Commercial
Central Business
Shopping Centers
Resorts
Strip
Industrial
Light
Heavy
Outdoor Recreation
Golf Courses
Ski
Public Pools and Beaches
Marinas
Campgrounds
Amusement Parks
Fairgrounds
Public Parks
Rifle Shooting
Extractive Industry
Public Lands
Solid Waste Disposal
Sewage Treatment
Transportation
None
Township
Two- and Three-Lane
Four-Lane
Divided
Limited Access
Interchange
Gas and Oil Pipeline
Tel. & Elec. Transmission
Non-Productive Rock
5-41
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ILLUSTRATION CREDITS
Page 2 Description of Warren County Sewerage Project,
Lawler, Matusky and Skelly Eng., 1974.
Town of Brunswick Zoning Map, Approved February
6, 1958.
Page 3 Original
Page 4 New York State Land Use and Natural Resources
Inventory, O.P.S., 1968.
Page 5 NASA U-2 Photograph, April 30, 1973, Altitude
65,000 ft., F 6" lens, Color I.R. 9" positive,
U-2 fl 73-063B
Page 6 Forest Statistics for New York, 1955, U.S.D.A.
(P- 35).
Forest Statistics for New York, Forest District
No. 11, 1954, U.S.D.A, (p. 13).
Page 7 The Development and Implementation of a Question-
naire Survey Data Base for Characterizing Man-
Environment Relationships in Trophically Polarized
Fresh Water Recreational Environments, Ph.D.
Thesis, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, K. J.
Kooyoomjian, 1974.
Warren County Map, New York State Department of
Environmental Conservation.
Page 8 Original
Page 9 N.Y.S, Economic Viability of Farm Areas, O.P.C.,
December 1969.
Soil Survey Interpretations of Soils in New York
State, Agron Mimeo 72-4, 1972,
Page 10 Brunswick Comprehensive Plan. Hans Klunder
Associates, Inc. 1971,
5-42
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Page 11 U.S.G.S. 7.5' Topographic Map
Brunswick Comprehensive Plan, Hans Klunder
Associates, Inc., 1971,
Regional Development Plan Recommendation for the
Lake Champlain Lake George Regional Planning
Board, 1972.
Page 12 Land Use Planning Process, Town of Lake George,
APA (Draft, 1975.
Physical Resources, (1969) Capital District Re-
gional Planning Commission.
Page 13 Same
Page 15 S. Katz, based on N.O.A.A. data.
Page 16 PLANMAP II Output, N.Y.S. O.P.C., R.P.I, Pro-
gramming .
Page 17 Original
Page 18 Diatom Death Assemblages as Indicators of Environ'
mental Quality in Lake George, New York, Masters
Thesis, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, J. A.
Bloomfield, 1972.
Page 19 Same
Page 20 Land Use Planning Process Town of Lake George,
APA (Draft), 1975.
Page 21 Regional Dev. Plan. Rec, for the L.C.L.G. Region,
L.C.L.G.R.P.B., 1972.
Brunswick Comprehensive Plan, Hans Klunder, 1971.
Page 22 Original Protographs
Page 23 Kooyoomjian, 1974
Page 24 Original Photograph
A.P.A. 1971 Land Use Plan.
5-43
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Page 25 Map in Warrensburg Regional DEC Office Showing
Original Subdivisions.
Page 26 Del Prete, 1972.
Page 28 Land Model, Carlisle, Park, 1975.
Page 29 Modified from CLEANER, The Lake George Model
In: Ecological Modeling in A Management Con-
text (C. S. Russell, ed.), R. A. Park, D. Scavia,
and N. L. Clesceri, 1975.
Page 31 Modified from Park, Scavia and Clesceri, 1975.
Page 32 Original
Page 33 Original
Page 34 Original
5-44
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CASE STUDY -- WOODLANDS
Vicki Watson and David L. Jameson
As a part of the development of a methodology to assess the
impact of urbanization on the ecosystem,a 'new town' was studied
in some detail. The Department of Housing and Urban Development,
under the Urban Growth and New Community Development Act of 1970,
assists private and public efforts to provide a viable alternative
to disorderly urban growth and to prepare Environmental Impact
Statements on these projects. If approved, a Project Agreement
between HUD and the developer results in a Development Plan which
specifies pace, scope and details of development in short-and long-
term periods. The developer is expected to comply to future stan-
dards of environmental quality.
Woodlands, a new community developing in Montgomery County,
Texas, on the fringe of Houston, meets the criteria for Title 5
assistance. When fully developed, it will consist of all basic
urban activities (housing, employment, commercial and institu-
tional services and facilities, recreation areas and facilities, and
light, non-pollutant type industry) and will place an ultimate
population of 125,000 people on 18,000 acres.
Initial studies by Wallace, McHarg, Roberts, and Todd (1974)
included ecological land planning physiography, geology, ground-
water and surface water hydrology, limnology, soils, plant ecology,
wildlife, climate, and an ecological synthesis. The developer takes
the position that urbanization is, in any case, the projected result
for the 18,000 acres and that his project is attempting to minimize
the ecological impact while maintaining an economically viable
development process. Since the data base was collected, we were
able to analyze the Woodlands EIS using the steps in the developing
methodology. This analysis led to alterations in the steps and
identified some problems which we attempted to correct by modifying
our procedures.
Two questions appeared worthwhile. What would have been the
additional cost imposed by our procedures? Would our procedures
be sensitive enough to identify acreages which should not be deve-
loped?
6-1
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I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE
a. Ecological units and categories. Most of the area is
natural woodlands (the various types are briefly outlined in the
plant ecology section of the EIS). Except for the mixed-mesic
woodlands, all the areas have been logged in the past, especially
the loblolly pine-hardwood forest, the loblolly pine-oak-gum forest,
and the pine-oak-oak-pine forest. This last is interrupted by
several pipelines, old saw mill sites, drilling sites, and some
urban development. Most of the forest area was being harvested
until acquired by the present developers.
The grassland requires a special note. There are no climax
or natural grasslands in the area; all are a result of human distur-
bances. Pipeline rights of way, oil fields, old saw mill sites,and
some cultivated areas account for the grasslands. Grazing maintains
the areas.
The total area involved in each of these ecological units
should be measured and rate of transfer between types estimated.
The Woodlands provides a fair example of a conscientious
attempt at describing the existing state of an area to be impacted
by a project. In 1971, an ecological planning study was a part
of a team of consultants planning a new town for Mitchell Energy
and Development Corporation. Studies were made of geology, ground-
water hydrology, surface hydrology, pedology, plant ecology, wild-
life and climatology. The results of the studies undertaken by
Wallace, McHarg, Roberts, and Todd are found in Woodlands New
Community: An Ecological Inventory and are summarized here.
Geology -- The formations underlying the Panther Creek watershed
are sands, gravels, and clays of Quaternary and Tertiary age. All
formations strike roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast in northeast-
southwest direction and dip toward the southeast at about 9 to 10
feet per mile. From the southwest to the northeast, the area is
traversed by two geological formations. The more northwestern,
more elevated soils are derived from the Willis sand of the Pliocene.
The more southerly and southeastern soils are of the Lissie sands
of the Pleistocene. Probably 75% of the area should be classed
Lissie-Willis sands. This geologic mingling results in a broad,
6-2
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gently sloping transition from northwest to southeast. The terrain
is moderately elevated in places, but is slightly undulating to flat
over much of the central interior and southeastern extension.
Groundwater Hydrology -- All the water underlying the site
comes from precipitation that falls on geologic outcrops north and
northwest of the site and is conducted by slow percolation to great
depths. During summer, most water entering the soil is lost by tran-
spiration and evaporation. During fall, the water soaks down to
regions of low permeability and when rainfall is heavy, a temporary,
or perched, water table is formed. Later, what is not lost by
evapotranspiration percolates down to the true watertable.
Potential yield of the aquifers beneath the site is estimated
to be 20 MGD.
Surface Hydrology -- The Panther Creek Basin covers about 40
square miles and measures 95,040 feet long. Its stream gradient
is .00159 feet/foot and its watershed has an annual runoff of 10
inches or about 21,000 acre-feet. At its mouth, Panther Creek's
runoff flows at about 30 cfs, while at its confluence with Spring
Creek its flow is 33 cfs if one adds subsurface flow. The Spring
Creek Basin (southern boundary of the project) is roughly 10 times
the area of the Panther Creek Basin and has an average flow of 207
cfs .
The hydrologic equation (inflow = outflow) mentioned in the
first section may be stated as: (surface inflow + subsurface
inflow + precipitation + decrease in surface storage + decrease in
groundwater storage) = (surface outflow + subsurface outflow + eva-
potranspiration + exported water + increase in surface storage +
increase in groundwater storage + consumption use).
A sample, conservative long-term water budget was done for
Panther Creek watershed. Precipitation was found to be 45 inches/
year and evapotranspiration was estimated to be 70% of that. Sub-
surface inflow was assumed to equal subsurface outflow. No increase
or decrease in surface storage, groundwater storage, and soil mois-
ture was assumed as was no import or export of water. This simpli-
fies the equation to precipation = evapotranspiration + runoff,
6-3
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TABLE 6-1. SAMPLE WATER BUDGET
Source
Precipitation
Evapo transpiration
Surface Runoff
Baseflow Runoff
Amount in: inches/year
+ 45
32
-10
- 3
MGD
+ 87
-62
-19
- 6
In terms of management, maintenance of baseflow is the most impor-
tant factor in the hydrologic cycle.
Pedology -- Soils on the site are red-yellow podzolic or by
seventh approximate classification palendults and are character-
istic of areas with a mild climate, abundant rainfall and a mixed
conifer-deciduous forest cover. They are highly leached, acid in
reaction, and fine in texture with a zone of clay accumulation.
Organic debris is rapidly oxidized, and the area is low in organic
matter content. Clays are kaolinite, lacking in a high shrink-
swell ratio.
There are two basic types of soil on site. The more elevated,
drier, better drained soils (Willis) are loamy sands with yellow
brittle clay subsoils. The other soil type is deep, nearly level
to gently sloping with variable drainage.
The majority of slopes on site are less than 5% except for
the bluff area immediately north of Spring Creek (exceeds 10%).
Slopes in excess of 5%, if disturbed, may require special con-
sideration if greater than 100 - 150 feet in length.
Climatology -- Data, from nearby airports describe the mild
Gulf Coastal climate. On site micro meterological data are not
available; these would certainly be desirable to understand both
processes, ecological land use changes, succession, and overall
environmental trends.
Plant Ecology - The vegetation of the site is predominantly
moist, mixed woodlands, dominated by loblolly pine (Pinus taeda).
These pines are associated in forest climax with species of hard-
woods, chiefly oaks (Quercus spp.), sweetgum (Liquidamber styraci-
fluaj, hickories (Carya spp.), typelo gum (Nyssa sylvatica), elms
6-4
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(Ulmus spp.)5 magnolia (Magnolia grandiflora), and sycamore
(Platanus occidentalisj. Shortleaf pine (Pinus echinataj may
dominate drier, more elevated soils, with a corresponding shift
in associated hardwoods. Because of the pines and semi-evergreen
understory trees, shrubs and vines, this forest type has been
referred to as the Southeastern Evergreen Forest.
This area is reasonably complex, presenting a number of
different forest communities. Shortleaf pine-hardwoods is a
climax forest type occupying the more elevated, drier, sandy soil
sites. Southern red oak (Quercus falcata var. falcata) is the
most consistently occurring hardwood in their forest type and the
understory is composed of sapling sweetgums, red and post oaks,
sparkleberry (Vaccinium arborium), spatulate leaf hawthorne
(Craetegus spathulataj, American beautyberry (Callicarpa
ameriguana) , yaupon (Ilex vomitoraj , St. John's wort (Hypericum
drummondiij. Vines include Vitis, Smilax, and Rubus, and grasses
include Uniola and Panicum spp.
The four following types are basically loblolly-pine-hard-
wood associations recombined in varying ways. Therefore, com-
munities represent a spectrum from mesic to semi-xeric and each
is named by its associated hardwood species.
The largest and most varied of the vegetation types mapped
was loblolly pine-hardwood found in the north central part of the
project area. Red and post oak were consistent hardwoods, with
sweetgum and tupelo gum in moister sites. The understory includes
tree sparkleberry, little hip hawthorne, dogwood (Cornus floridaj,
red bud (Cercis canadensisj, rusty blackhaw (Viburnum rufidulum.
Wetter sites exhibit hop-hornbeam (Ostrya virginianaj, American
holly, small tree yaupon, and American hornbeam (Carpinus
caroloniana). Yaupon American beautyberry, and St. John's wort
are common with Sebastiana fruticosa in heavier soils. Vitis,
Smilax, Berchemia, and Rubus are common vines. Grasses include
Uniola, Panicum spp., Paspalum spp., and Axonopus.
Loblolly-pine-oak-gum appears on deep, sandy, fertile loams
in the southern part of the area. Loblolly pine, red oak, water
6-5
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and willow oak, sweet and tupelo gums dominate the overstory.
The upper understory is made of American holly and hornbeam, hop-
hornbeam, dogwood, red bud, tree sparkleberry, and hawthorns.
The lower understory is America beautyberry, yaupon, hawthorns,
and red bud. Vines are similar to last type.
Pine-oak-pine is the second largest type and occupies
the eastern and southeastern portions of the area. This type is
found on highly leached, poorly drained soils and has been heavily
harvested. Includes post, water, and willow oaks. Pines were
once important but were harvested out. Subordinate tree level is
poorly developed, while yaupon dominates the shrub understory.
Grasses and herbs resemble those of previously described areas.
Mixed-mesic woodlands is found in limited amounts in the
northeast part of the area on soils of recent origin (fine sandy
loam). Trees are loblolly pine, magnolia, a number of oaks and
hickories, sweet and tupelo gum, American ash (Fraximus
caroliniana), sycamore, and southern hackberry (Celtis laevigata).
The lesser tree story has American holly and hornbeam, dogwood,
hop-hornbeam, laurel cherry, red maple (Acer rubrum), red bay,
Aralia spinosa, and river birch (Betula nigraj. The lower under-
story is composed of arrowwood (Viburnum dentatum), shrub red
bay, yaupon, possum-haw holly (Ilex deciduaj, sebastiana deerberry
(Vaccinium stamineumj, fringe tree (Chionanthus virginicus), and
southern wax myrtle. Vines include Vitis spp. , Smilax spp.,
Ampelopsis cordata, and poison ivy (Rhus toxicodendronj. The
herbaceous stratum is characterized by Uniola, Panicum spp.,
basket grass (Oplis menus setarius), Elephantopus spp. , and Smilax.
Small stream flood plain or bottom land vegetation exists on
poorly drained soils and boasts many fine old oaks. Other hard-
woods include sweet gum, tupelo gum, winged and water elm, bitter
pecan, hickories, and sycamores. American hornbeam, hop-hornbeam,
and American holly dominate the lower tree story as yaupon,
sebastiana, and deerberry do the shrub understory. Vines are
those of the last type and herbs are represented by violets, cress
(Cardamine bulbosa), buttercups (Ranunculus), pennyworts
6-6
-------
(Hydrocotyle), mints (Labiatae), verbenas, rushes, and sedges.
Grasses include switch grass, giant cane (Arundinaria gigantea),
basket grass, and marshmillet (Zozanopsis miliaceaej.
A number of wet weather ponds occur in the area and exhibit
retarded vegetational succession. Few plants can adapt to the
low mineral ratio, high water level, and grazing which character-
ize these areas. The typical pond is inhabited by a figworth
(Grastisla neglecta) , rush (Juncus sp_.), and a tiny flatsedge
(Carex sp.).
The grasslands of this area are largely man-created (pipe-
line rights of way, abandoned oil wells, old fields, and other
disturbed areas). Carpet grass (Axonopus affinisj, a sod-forming
short grass, and common Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylonj, also a
sod-forming perennial, account for most of the ground cover.
Wildlife Only a preliminary species list was compiled.
Sixteen terrestrial mammals, four game birds, two waterfowl,
eleven raptors, and more than two dozen other birds (and "song
birds") are identified. About half of the mammals and a few of
the birds are identified as common; the rest are rate.
The basic ecological units can be identified from the above
studies because the animals' distributions and abundances are
closely related to the identified plant communities. We, as a
panel of two, are unwilling to explicitly limit the number of
units, but some effort by a team of ecologists could do so, prob-
ably without additional data collecting. The absence of any
analysis of the community interaction makes it very difficult to
identify or project changes in amount and distribution of the
ecological units which would occur in the area with human develop-
ment .
b. Identification and characterization of the dynamic eco-
logical processes. Although a good start was made (especially
on soils and hydrology), the Woodlands assessment of the existing
state of ecological variables is inadequate. Particularly needed
are measurements of terrestrial biomass and assessment of
terrestrial primary productivity, including that of managed areas
6-7
-------
Once the productivity per unit area for each of the ecological
land use types has been measured, total primary productivity can
be obtained from the vegetation mapping which was already done.
Terrestrial secondary productivity and decomposition studies
will require much more work. The invertebrate and particularly
the arthropod population of the area must be sampled and studied.
Sollins' (1971) work may serve as a model. Studies of mineral
and nutrient cycling are also needed.
A complete limnological study of the streams is necessary.
Chemical parameters which need investigation are dissolved oxygen,
temperature, pH, biological oxygen demand, ammonia, nitrates,
phosphates, chlorides, alkalinity, and counts of total and fecal
coliform bacteria. Physical sampling should include water depth,
presence of riffles and pools, stream width, flow characteristics,
silt deposits, organic sludge deposits, and iron precipitates.
An investigation of the kinds and abundance of aquatic vegetation
is needed. Biomass of phytoplankton and submerged macrophytes
and aquatic primary productivity must be measured.
In addition to vegetation and wildlife the species composi-
tion of invertebrates, soil bacteria and fungi, and lichens, etc.,
should be investigated. The distribution, abundance, and demo-
graphic characteristic of old species is also necessary.
Organization of these species into food chains and webs is
necessary for later modeling. Values of different energy and
material flows should be measured; i.e., in the following example,
the amount of energy transferred which each arrow represents
should be measured. The very important impact of arthropods on
plants must be investigated.
6-8
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Primary Producers
Organisms
Figure 6-1. Sample food chain
Energy flow and material cycling may also be represented as
in standard ecological texts. This would very probably show that
the bulk of primary production goes directly to the decomposers;
i.e., Woodlands is characterized by a detrital, rather than a
grazing, food chain.
With regard to succession, the area is largely climax vege-
tation of the Southeastern Evergreen Forest except for areas
which have been logged or cleared for grazing or cultivation.
Most areas are now returning to the climax vegetation except for
areas where grazing continues; these are being maintained in a
grassland subclimax.
Seasonal variation also has an effect on the area, especially
with regard to hydrology. A number of ponds and streams only
exist during the wet season.
The total watershed picture must be investigated. The
energy and material and water flow between terrestrial and
aquatic systems must be mapped and values placed on the transfers
and transfer rate. There is little aquatic habitat at present
and the large increase which would come with one of the proposed
6-9
-------
alternatives (the building of Woodlands) would greatly increase
this habitat. Its present relation to the terrestrial environ-
ment needs elucidation.
This assimilative capacity of all the ecosystem units (ter-
restrial but especially aquatic) for waste residual discharge
and other human pertubations should be calculated. The amount
of treated sewage and urban runoff (fertilizers, silt, oil, and
gas, etc.) that the streams can assimilate without becoming
eutrophic should be estimated (this value will vary with time
of year). The amount of clearing that the forests can stand and
remain viable as entities and as habitats for animals is of
interest. The amount of noise and disturbances that animal
population can assimilate without interfering with their activi
ties should be considered.
c. Description of Historical Stage Setting.- The service
area might be considered to be the 17,000 to 18,000 acres which
will be developed while the impact area is much larger, including
all waters downstream of Panther and Spring Creeks to Galveston
Bay and the Gulf of Mexico and all areas which will provide
support to the new community. A community such as this which is
largely residential requires food and other consumer goods, power,
employment and the transport of goods in and workers out.
While more or less natural forest woodlands account for a
large percentage of the vegetation, the original structure of
this area of Southeastern Evergreen Forest has been radically
altered by repeated harvesting of the more mature pines and hard-
woods, development of pipelines, drilling and storage facilities,
some urban development, and forestry practices aimed at controlling
the hardwood constituents. Some areas were cultivated earlier,
and roads, both logging and improved, traverse the area. Cattle
grazing and fire control have been practiced over most of the
area for the past 30-40 years (McCloud, 1974) . The sites and
extent of the intervention should be mapped to provide a quantita-
tive assessment of past human impact.
6-10
-------
The first 20 years of the project should see the most
radical changes in the service area because most development will
be completed during this time. Significant time units of one
year are indicated for the first 20 years and units of five to
ten years afterwards. The larger impact area, however, will
undergo more and more changes as the area becomes more developed,
and the greatest impacts will occur toward the end of the 20-year
development plan. Significant time units of five years for the
first ten years, units of one year for the next 15 or 20, and
then units of five years after this time seem plausible.
Past human population density, structure, and distribution
should be investigated but will not be tremendously important in
this largely natural and unpopulated area. Past human interven-
tions (aforementioned grazing, cultivation, lumbering, fire
control, etc.) are of more significance.
d. Description of Environmental Goals Related to the
Ecosystem. Sociologically, the primary environmental goal of
the project was to provide an alternative to unplanned urban
sprawl development. Ecologically, the main focus of the plan was
to balance the hydrologic equation, i.e., see to it that water
inflow equaled water outflow, in order to maintain hydrologic
equilibrium. Actually, nature will balance the equation.
Ecological planning must see to it that this is accomplished with
minimal deleterious changes in the environment.
Although the entire area is of great aesthetic value and
serves as a natural buffer zone, assimilating pollution of nearby
urban areas, some few vegetation types have been singled out as
being worthy of special consideration and protection. Within a
small area of typically mixed-mesic woodlands along the right
side of Panther Branch, a small but unique area of flora has
developed. Several Big Thicket plants of floral and botanical
interest are noted here. Vegetation of the lower, small flood-
plain woodlands is almost unique in its beauty, tree species
balance, wildlife possibilities, and remoteness. Other mesic
woodlands near a proposed reservoir include fine specimens of
6-11
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large, attractive hardwoods which escaped harvest in the past.
The numerous wet weather ponds and hummocks of the area also have
unusual aesthetic possibilities (McCloud, 1974).
Local residents and environmental groups (in Houston, Sierra
Club, Armand Bayou Nature Conservancy, and Citizens Environmental
Coalition come to mind) should be consulted on goals for the
project. State, regional, and local environmental plans which
protect ecosystem structure and function should be considered.
The community development process approved by HUD allows
changes in the Environmental Goals by the residential village
governments. Thus, a village council in one area may approve
plan changes which will conserve natural habitats, while another
village council may decide that, because the ponds promote
mosquito growth and the underbrush provides habitat for poisonous
snakes, the ponds should be drained and the underbrush cleared.
While this would promote a parklike atmosphere, it would reduce
the habitat and species diversity and lower the number of Ecolo-
gical Units and the variety of ecosystem processes.
e. Prediction and Description of Changes Without Additional
Human Intervention (i.e. No Action Taken).- Developers,
demographers, and planners consulted by the Woodlands Development
Corporation claim that the area in question will become urbanized
in the near future because of population pressure, regardless of
whether or not the proposed planned community is built. Doubtless,
this urbanization would be sprawl development typical of nearby
Houston. Houston's land use distribution appears in Table 2.
The area in question will very probably develop similarly, per-
haps with a slightly greater percentage of land going to
residential land use (it will no doubt serve as a "bedroom com-
munity" for Houston).
This 17,000+ acres might be expected to have around 40% of
the area (i.e., 7,000 acres) in single-family, low-density resi-
dential housing with about ten people per acre (using Houston's
example). This would mean a population of 70,000, composed
6-12
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TABLE 6-2. LAND USE IN HOUSTON, TEXAS
Single-Family 30%
(Low-Density)
Residential Multi-Family 2%
(High-Density)
Residential Urban-Commercial 12%
Industrial 10%
Open Space 4%
'0
Undeveloped 43%
(Vacant lots, abandoned building)
Data: Houston-Galveston Area Council. 1972.
Regional Data Book Vol. 1, p. 8, 68.
largely of upper middle and upper income groups. Doubtless,
there would be also some high-density, multi-family residential
areas -- probably around 2% of the area (350 acres) with 40 people
per acre (looking again to Houston for land use and population
figures). This would add another 14,000 people, bringing the
population of the area to 84,000.
A study made by HUD (the costs of sprawl) asserted that
unplanned "sprawl" development has a much greater impact on the
environment than does "planned" development. The relative impacts
of the two types of development on air and water quality appear
in Tables 3, and 4. The values represent total effect per 10,000
dwelling units or per 33,000 people. The impact of a development
may be calculated by multiplying the values in the tables by the
number of people expected to inhabit the area and then divide by
33,000.
6-13
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TABLE 6-5. POLLUTANTS/10,OOP UNITS OR 33.000 PERSONS
Private Automobiles per Developed
Acre (pounds
per day)
CO
HC
NOX
Planned Mix
.8309
.1002
.0978
Sprawl Mix
1.3050
.1574
.1535
Residential Natural Gas Use per
Developed Acre (pounds per day)
Particulates
sox
CO
HC
NOX
.0342
.0012
.0008
.0760
.2281
.0374
.0013
.0008
.0831
.2494
Using the above population figures and the sprawl mix impact
values from the tables, one finds sprawl mix-development (i.e.,
both high- and low-density) would have the impacts shown in
Table 6-4.
6-14
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TABLE 6-4. WATER POLLUTION AND EROSION
Sediment from Erosion
Average annual volume during development
period (tons per year-
Pollutants from Sewage Effluent
2/
Total Volume (liters per year)—
3/
Pollutants (Kilograms per year)—
BOD
COD
N
P
SS
FCB (number x 10 per year)
Planned mix
4,469.53
4,559,032,500
22,795.1
191,479.4
77,503.6
4,459.0
9,118.0
100% Removal
Sprawl mix
4431.09
Same as I
Same as I
Pollutants from Storm Runoff
4/
Total Volume (liters per year)—
Pollutants (kilograms per year)—
BOD
COD
N
P
SS
FCB (number x 10 per second)
7,785,507,840
181,402.3
490,487.0
21,020.8
6,228.4
7,785,507.8
9,342,609.3
7,836,208,6.
182,600.0
493,725.2
21,159.6
6,269.5
7,836,908.6
9,404,290.3
Pollutants from Sanitary Landfill Leachate
6/
Total Volume (liters per year)—
4,095,616
7/
Pollutants (kilograms per year)—
Same as I
BOD
N
P
FCB (number x 10 per year)
44,437.3
1,789.8
28.7
462.8
Same as I
6-15
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TABLE 6-5. AIR AND WATER POLLUTION
Air Pollution:
Pollutants from private cars (pound per day)
CO 9234.78 HC 1113.61 NOX 1086.45
Pollutants from residential natural gas use (pounds per day)
Particulates 264.73 HC 588.31
SOX 8.91 NOX 1764.92
CO 5.85
Water Pollution and Erosion:
Sediment from Erosion 1.13 x 10
(average annual volume during development period in tons per year)
Pollutants from Sewage Effluent
Total volume (liters per year) 1.16 x lO^
Pollutants (kilograms per year)
BOD 5.80 x 104
COD 4.87 x 105
N 1.97 x 105
P 1.14 x 104
SS 2.32 x 104
Pollutants from Storm Runoff
Total volume (liters per year) 1.99 x 1010
Pollutants (kilograms per year)
BOD 4.65 x 105
COD 1.26 x 106
N 5.39 x 104
P 1.60 x 104
SS 1.99 x 107
Pollutants from Sanitary Land Fill Leachate
Total volume (liters per year) 1.04 x 10
Pollutants (kilograms per year)
BOD 1.13 x 105
N 4.56 x 104
P 7.31 x 101
6-16
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Other relationships between land use and environmental
quality may be discerned from Berry et al. (1974 table 2.7)
Suspended air particulates may increase from 21 to 102g/ and
several-fold increases in benzene, amonium, nitrates sulfates,
copper, iron, manganese, nickel, and lead are expected. Some of
the other effects of urbanizing this area follow.
Clear cutting increases the amount of water passing through
the watershed in the form of runoff. This exposes the mineral
soil and increases surface water temperature. The increase in
flow from runoff is directly proportional to the amount of
forest cut. Most significant change will, occur during summer,
the period of low flow, when stream flow will be greatly augmented.
Erosion and siltation will increase, as will turbidity in streams.
Urbanization has one of its greatest impacts in its effect
on water supplies. Some results of changing from a natural to
an urban area are:
1. Large areas are covered by impervious areas that inter-
cept precipitation and increase runoff, resulting in
a reduction of groundwater recharge.
2. Storm drainage systems increase runoff, decrease
recharge, and conduct polluted urban runoff into streams.
3. Large numbers of suburban septic tanks pollute shallow
aquifers.
4. Municipal waste disposal pollutes streams and aquifers.
5. Urbanization encroaches on stream flood plains and
banks, which previously served as natural water storage
areas.
6. The resulting increased flooding will result in unstable
devegated stream banks which results in further silta-
tion and fertilization of water.
7. This results in increased growth of algae and plankton
and increased turbidity of water.
8. Stream temperatures will be affected as more water is
exposed to solar radiation and warm urban runoff enters
streams.
6-17
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Because of the flatness of the area, erosion will not be as
great a problem as areas with "more topography" have experienced.
Other impacts of urbanization include: increase in ambient
temperature (suburbs are 5° higher and urban centers 10-12° higher
than undeveloped areas, according to Woodlands EIS), increase in
noise level, increase in amount of wastes (both solid and liquid)
to be disposed of, and decrease in area covered with photosynthe-
tic plants.
Each of the ecological land-use types previously discussed
will probably undergo urbanization. After modeling the manner
in which the area would change if left natural with use of a
succession model (Shugart et al., 1972, 1973) the effects of urbaniza
must be considered. The amount of area from which green photo-
synthesizing plants are removed and replaced by impervious struc-
tures is an important input to terrestrial productivity models.
Each ecological land-use type has a different productivity and
should be considered separately. An idea of the amount of diff-
erence in the productivity of a natural area and a nearby urban
area may be obtained from table 4-4 comparing Noe Woods with the
Nakoma residential areas. The amount of impervious surface is
an input to hydrological models (as well as an input to water
quality models). The amounts of waste residuals calculated ear-
lier with respect to air and water pollution also serve as inputs
to models (specifically process models of nutrient cycling and
loading in aquatic systems).
With regard to changes from unidentifiable sources, there
has been considerable similar development in this area and most
sources of impact should have been identified. Since impact
analysis is a new science (art?), even the most typical develop-
ment will have impacts from unidentified sources, but this
should be a small percentage of the total impact.
On the question of unpredictable change, decision-makers
may visit any number of sites of sprawl development around Houston
and see the impact for themselves.
6-18
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TABLE 6-6. COMPARISON OF THE PRODUCTIVITY OF 'NATURAL' AND
RESIDENTIAL AREA AT LAKE WINGRA. WISCONSIN
ECOLOGICAL PARAMETER NOE WOODS NAKOMA RESIDENTIAL
•e Ground Productivity g/i
(adjusted for impervious services)
2
Total Above Ground Productivity g/m /yr
Trees
2
Foliage (g/m /yr)
2
Branches (g/m /yr)
Bole (g/m2/yr)
2
Shrubs (g/m /yr)
2
Herbs (g/m /yr)
Number species shrubs
Percent cover shrub
Number species trees
Density of trees (stems/ha)
Mean basal area trees D.B.H.
811.8
410.8
72.5
282.4
28.0
18.1
12
40
11
422
15-16
1009.8
319.4
87.4
305.3
40.0
257.5
74
20
75
143
22-23
Data: Lawson, G. J., G. Cottam, and 0. L. Loucks. 1972, Structure and
primary productivity of two watersheds in the Lake Wingra
basin. EDFB memo report #72-98.
6-19
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II. DESCRIPTION OF CHANGES ACCOMPANYING EACH ALTERNATIVE
A. Alternative one - Development should be in the form of
a new planned community
B. Alternative two - Area should be kept natural (develop-
ment, whether planned or sprawl,
should occur elsewhere), requiring
revision of zoning or government pur-
chase of land.
A. Rather than considering all the types of planned com-
munities which could be built on the site, this description will
concern itself only with that proposed by Woodlands Development
Corporation. Obviously, communities could be designed so as to
have even less impact on the environment with use of solar and
wind energy, recycling of all wastes, high density housing, mass
transportation, community gardens, etc. An examination of table
6-7 showing the proposed land use would show how much of each of
the forest types would be involved in each of the ecological units
A proposed 6,172 acres of housing (49,000 dwelling units)
with 3.2 people per unit (156,000 people) will include both upper
and lower income housing. Referring again to HUD (Costs of
Sprawl, Table 2) Charts, one finds that a planned mix development
(both high- and low-density) of this size and density (around
seven to eight people per acre) would have the following impacts:
The quantitative discussion of impacts in the previous
section need not be repeated here. Suffice it to say, qualita-
tively, impacts will be similar. Quantitatively, the air and
water quality impacts appear to be greater for the planned than
for the unplanned sprawl development. However, the planned
development is also higher density than the unplanned (seven to
eight people per acre, and five people per acre, respectively),
so perhaps the values for planned high density and sprawl low
density should have been used instead of the values for planned
mix and sprawl mix. This would have brought the values closer
together.
6-20
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TABLE 6-7. PROPOSED LAND USE
a) Open space (3,359 acres) natural and parklike, 1/4 of
total area, purpose ecology and recreation.
b) Urban activities system (1,263 acres) business,
recreational, institutional.
c) Industrial employment (2,005 acres).
d) Residential (6,172 acres).
Land Allocation in acres
Total 16,939
Primary Open Space 2,798
Pipeline Right of Way 102
Primary Road System 1,513
Net Development Area 12,526
Infrastructure 1,615
Office Commercial 116
Comparison Retailing § Hotel 165
Industrial/Employment 2,005
Residential 6,172
Village Centers 493
Local Centers 339
Town/Univ. Center 150
Univ. Campus 400
Country Club/Golf Courses 270
Comm. Recreation Center and
Golf Courses 250
Sports Facilities Complex 81
Stables 30
Secondary Open Space 561
Sewage Treatment 34
Reserve 1,460
6-21
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TABLE 6-8. AIR AND WATER POLLUTION RESULTING FROM
PROPOSED LAND USE
Air Pollution
Pollutants from private cars (pounds per day)
CO 11941.42 HC 1439.97 NOX 1404.85
Pollutants from residential natural gas use (pounds per day)
Particulates 491.64 SOX 16.54 CO 10.87
HC 1092.47 NOX 3277.70
Water Pollution
Sediment from erosion 2.11 x 10
(average annual volume during development in tons/yr.
Pollutants from sewage effluent
Total volume (liters per year) 2.16 x 10
Pollutants (kilograms per year)
BOD 1.08 x 105
COD 9.05 x 105
N 3.66 x 105
P 2.11 x 104
SS 4.31 x 104
Pollutants from storm runoff
Total volume (liters per year) 3.68 x 10
Pollutants (kilograms per year)
BOD 8.58 x 105
COD 2.32 x 106
N 9.94 x 104
P 2.94 x 104
SS 3.68 x 107
Pollutants from sanitary land fill leachate
7
Total volume (liters per year) 1.94 x 10
Pollutants (kilograms per year)
BOD 2.10 x 105
N 8.46 x 103
P 1.36 x 102
6-22
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Another difference between the two types of development is
of significance. The planned community will base land-use
decisions on ecological and hydrological considerations (perme-
ability of soils, etc.) and will strive to minimize impacts with
natural drainage systems, no development in 50 or 100 year flood
plain, and maintenance of 1/4 of the areas in a "natural" state.
The extent to which this lessens the impact of the project must
be calculated in order to compare it to the no-action alternative,
Once again, the air and water quality impacts change in
vegetation cover, and areas involved in various ecological land
uses provide inputs to process and total ecosystem models. The
results of this analysis should then compare to the analysis of
the no-action alternative.
B. The last alternative (maintenance of the area in its
"natural" state) requires only a brief note. It is highly
unlikely that a conservation-minded private citizens or public
organization will purchase the area and keep it natural. Perhaps
it might be bought for agricultural or lumbering purposes. The
effects of such management practices could also be assessed by
process and ecosystem models.
III. DESCRIPTION OF INCREMENTAL AND SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS
The area in question is very near to one of the fastest (if
not the fastest) urbanizing areas in the United States. This is
the Houston-Galveston area of the Texas Gulf Coast. Probably
because of its status as an energy exporting area, this part of
the country is experiencing little of the effects of the present
recession. Without a doubt, the development of this area (the
area recently acquired by Woodlands Development Corporation) will
add a very significant increment to the urban areas surrounding
and including Houston and Galveston. Almost certainly, further
development will be stimulated by that peculiar cancerous habit
of urbanization which always seems to make its present state
obsolete by increasing in complexity until new support systems
(more urbanization) are required.
6-23
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As was pointed out in the section on Alternatives, there is
little likelihood that steps will be taken to keep the area
natural because there is little economic gain. And, even if this
were possible, development would simply occur elsewhere with
approximately the same incremental and synergistic effects. Not-
withstanding some major socioeconomic event which could reverse
the present growth trend of this boom-town area, the major
alternative seems to be whether the area will undergo sprawl or
planned development. The relative primary and secondary impacts
have been discussed. The question remains as to which will have
greater incremental and synergistic effects.
Given two development types, sprawl development might tend
to develop only following support structures. However, the sudden
development of a large "planned" area will require that a larger
area of support be constructed. The planners may argue that they
design in their own support systems but such is seldom the case;
for example, at The Woodlands there are not sufficient jobs for
those who will live in the new development. The conclusion here
is that the planned community may not necessarily have less
incremental effects than a sprawl community and may have even more.
Planned communities will have less of an incremental effect only
if all support systems are truly designed into them so that they
do not stimulate the surrounding area to urbanize in order to
support them. The Woodlands has not done this.
Synergistic effects would occur when two or more effects
together have a greater total effect than the sum of the effects
separately. The higher density of the planned development,
together with the greater speed with which the development occurs,
could produce a devastating synergistic effect. However,
generally the ecological planning used by The Woodlands developers
should result in fewer synergistic impacts than sprawl development,
especially in the hydrology of the area.
6-24
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IV. RECOMMENDED ALTERNATIVE
As is frequently the case in the real world, one is faced
with choosing between the "lesser of the evils." The mind rebels
against choosing unplanned sprawl over planned development but is
equally leery of sanctioning a project which has very significant
impacts on the environment and will almost certainly stimulate
further development. Perhaps the solution is to allow a fairly
independent team of experts to make the recommendation. They
should have complete freedom to "live veto" individual parts of
the proposed alternatives. Perhaps then they would choose the
planned development but would insist that it occur over a longer
period, utilize solar energy, and more mass transportation.
V. REQUIRED OPERATIONED ADJUSTMENTS
Presently, zoning laws and deed restrictions are not suf-
ficient to insure that the promises of The Woodlands developer
will even be carried out. The developer should give his proposals
for carrying out this plan and legal consultants could give their
opinion of the effectiveness of the proposals. If they are not
effective, it should be realized that the planned development
could very likely be worse than unplanned development, for it
would have many of the same effects and would most likely stimu-
late a greater amount of supportive urbanization.
COST OF ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND OF SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS
The cost of environmental analysis and planning at The
Woodlands was divided into two parts: an initial study of
$150,000 and a revised study of more than $250,000.
The total natural resource inventory and planning is about
$3.2/person or $22.2./acre. The total planning cost (resource,
economics, and social) including all staff costs was more than
$3,000,000 or $24/person and approximately $167/acre. The addi
tional costs of space-time analysis might well have increased the
6-25
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TABLE 6-9- ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT § PLANNING COSTS
Initial Ecological Study (aerial photos) $ 80,000
from this was produced on Ecological Inventory
Initial Ecological Plan $ EIS on same 70,000
(submitted to HUD)
Total Cost of Initial Work $150,000
Revised Ecological
Inventory: Soils $ 50,000
Vegetation 14,500
Land Planning 26,000
Wildlife 60,300
USGS gauging station 19,000
(measures flow and quality)
Total 169,800
Revised Ecological Plan 90,000
Total Cost of Revised Work $259.800
cost / acre by $6.00 and the cost / person by $1.00. Signifi-
cantly, space-time analysis uses the same resources that were
developed in the ecological study and inventory. Thus, the
ability to project ecosystem changes would be significantly
improved by appropriate analysis.
6-26
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LITERATURE CITED
Berry, B. J. L., et al. 1974. Land use, urban form and
environmental quality, EPA Report on Project R. 801419,
and Research Paper No. 155. Department of Geography,
University of Chicago, Chicago.
Housing and Urban Development. 1974. The Costs of Sprawl.
U.S. Govt. Printing Office #4111-00021.
Houston-Galveston Area Council. 1972. Regional Data Book.
Vol. 1.
Lawson, G. J., G. Cottam, and 0. L. Loucks. 1972. Structure
and primary productivity of two watersheds in the Lake
Wingra basin. EDFB Memo Report #72-98.
McCloud, C. 1974. Plant Ecology. In Wallace, McHarg, Roberts,
and Toddj Woodlands New Community: An Ecological
Inventory.
Shugart, H. H., T. R. Crow, and J. M. Hett. 1973. Forest
succession models: a rational and methodology for model
ing forest succession over large regions. Forest 19:203-212
Shugart, H. H., R. A. Goldstein, R. V. O'Neill, and J. B. Mankin.
1974. TEEM: Terrestrial ecosystem energy model. Oecol.
Plant. 9:231-264.
Wallace, McHarg, Roberts and Todd. 1974. Woodlands New
Community: An Ecological Inventory.
6-27
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METHODOLOGY FOR SPACE-
TIME ANALYSIS
D. L. Jameson, V. Watson, N. Mercuro,
A. D. Hinckley, and R. A. Park
A number of methodologies have been proposed for use in
preparing the environmental impact statements (EIS's) required
by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPAj of 1969. As
reviewed by Warner and Preston (1974), these identify impacts
through the use of maps (McHarg, 1969; Krauskopf and Bunde, 1972),
checklists (Adkins and Burke, 1971; Institute of Ecology, 1971;
Walton and Lewis, 1971; Dee and others, 1972; Smith, undated;
Stover, 1972; Multiagency Task Force, 1972; and U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers, 1972), matrices (Leopold and others, 1971; and
Central New York Regional Planning and Development Board, 1972),
and networks (Sorensen, 1971; Sorensen and Pepper, 1973; Moore
and others, 1973; Dee and others, 1973).
Warner and Preston (1974, p. 1) state "There is no single
'best' methodology for environmental impact assessment." They
suggest that an impact methodology should be selected on the
basis of whether or not the analysis is to provide information
or is to assist with decisions, the potential alternatives, the
degree of public involvement anticipated, the resources available,
the familiarity of the analyst with the methodology, the signif-
icance of the issue, and the administrative constraints imposed
by the agencies involved. Analysis of the various methodologies
available using these criteria provides no clear choice of
methods for the analysis of the secondary effects of urbanization.
Armstrong (1972) thinks that an approach can be developed
that uses the best components of each of the available methods;
he calls this "Space Time Analysis." Frug ej^ al. (1974) and
Rowe e_t al. (1974) appear to have had some success in impact
assessment using an approach which combines the resources of
several methods. Dorney (1973) suggests the use of a team of
experts or specialists may provide the best, quick, cheap and
7-1
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direct analysis of single effects. An appropriately selected
team would provide the latest information and,group dynamics
would provide the necessary systems analysis. In actuality,
almost all methods used to date are tools to aid in conceptualiza-
tion and presentation and do not provide significant analytical
capability.
Biologists use two approaches to discovery: description
and comparison. Description can be used to demonstrate associa
tion, function, organization, and interactions of the processes,
materials, individuals, or system. The description can be in
the form of a sentence, schematic, model, or computer information
bank. Comparisons can be used to reveal the differences between
cases or the stages in a time sequences. The scientific method
uses observation and description to develop hypotheses which
are tested by comparisons between cases (before and after, with
and without, various amounts of treatment). Hypotheses which
continuously and consistently predict the results are considered
theories. Elements of both description and comparisons are
required of a methodology which will project (provide hypotheses)
about impacts.
Methodologies for impact assessment share certain common
characteristics. To analyze an impact, they describe the project
or program which represents the source of changes and the system
or environment which will be perturbed or modified. This
analysis is usually qualitative and often has many subjective
elements when conscious or unconscious value judgement affect the
selection or weighting of factors to be considered. However,
measurements of causes and effects can make the analysis more
quantitative while clear statements of assumptions can make it
more open and objective.
The ideal methodology for impact assessment would be simple,
reliable, and widely applicable. The "would be" is emphasized
because no such methodology now exists and those which have been
developed are only approximations of the ideal. Still, it is
worthwhile keeping in mind the criteria for a perfect methodology
7-2
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when using existing methodologies or developing new ones. The
desire to keep it simple may be the most difficult to achieve.
Even a small-scale, short-term project can interact with
environmental conditions, already subject to natural variations,
in a multitude of ways. Perhaps a realistic definition of a
simple methodology would be "one which does not require years of
special training to master yet takes into consideration all the
technology-environment interactions which are of importance in
decision-making." Reliability is somewhat easier to specify
and achieve. The methodology should give similar, if not identi
cal, results each time it is used. It should also be reasonably
unaffected by user bias, providing reproducible results when
applied by individuals of diverse experience and interests.
Finally, the methodology should be applicable in many different
situations. This raises a problem familiar to anyone who has
tried to sell a product. If it does one job very well, the
product may have a limited market. The ideal product or method-
ology is one which does a variety of jobs reasonably well. For
example, a methodology that can be used in the assessment of
mining and construction impacts on terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems would be more valuable but less precise than one which
covered only highway impacts on soil profiles and water tables.
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF CHANGING ECOSYSTEMS
The overall purpose of the methodology is ultimately to
describe changes in a particular set of ecological variables
that result from urbanization induced by changes in population
and increased infrastructure investments. The objective of the
methodology must be to determine what the impacts will be and to
express these findings in a form in which professionals can
identify the confidence limits of the predictions, while also
couching the predictions in terms in which the decision-maker
(citizen or politician) can understand the implications of his
decision. The methodology offered here should be construed by
practitioner as an "overall approach," "a way to view your effort,"
and/or "as a source of formulating questions to which you will
obtain much need answers."
7-3
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Ecological variables are defined as those variables that
best describe the state of the ecosystem at the time_of descrip-
tion, that is, the existing state of the ecosystem, £, of the
prescribed area.
The methodology asserts that there are transforming forces
j (population growth and public investments forces that when
aggregated result in urbanization) which ultimately change the
state of the ecosystem E to Ep-
Simply put, £ _ _ T _ _ ^ |Tp
where Ep is the predicted state of the ecosystem, described
with the same variables that describe £; Ep is assessed with
respect to the time of impact of the specific project.
Consider:
E > EP
I. Describe E, the existing state of the natural ecosystem
that will be in the area where the secondary effects will
impact:
II. - Conceptually, there are two distinct forces that comprise
T:
Ji ; The aggregated institutional forces, i.e., planning,
economic, social, political,. . . etc., that
monitor and induce urban growth. These will not
be analyzed by this study.
Jo: The impacts generated from the induced urban growth
that alter E; the existing state of the natural
ecosystem.
III. Assume a monotonic increase in the generation of impacts
for the commercial, residential, and recreational sectors.
The impacts of the industrial sector will be region- and
industry-specific. Together, these impacts will con-
tribute to the inputs for the analysis of changes in the
ecosystem.
IV. The results obtained through the use of the models will
enable us to project the future state of the natural
ecosystem, Ep•
7-4
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The information obtained in utilizing this methodology that
attempts to predict the state of the natural ecosystem is signi
ficant for the environmental impact statement writing and review
process. In effect, the quality of our environment, in part,
relies on the EIS process as an informational feedback loop.
That is, the economic and political insitutions are not well
designed to either collect or process this class of information.
Consequently, the EIS procedure, in general, provides this
information by institutionalizing a negative feedback loop.
SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS
The proposed Space-Time Analysis is designed to emphasize
the dynamic nature of the ecosystem. Ecosystems are constantly
changing, and often man's activities have the greatest impact
by altering the rate of that change. The space over which the
facility will have impact is identified and described in three
dimensions, and the changes during time are indicated, including
the case of no additional human intervention (null case) and
each alternative intervention. Existing (on shelf) models, maps,
data bases, regional plans, and a team of ecologists are used to
identify ecological units and processes to best project, describe,
and identify the potential environmental change. The description
of the existing situation requires a consideration of the eco-
system structural characteristics, variables, and processes with
particular emphasis on cyclic (seasonal) phenomena and on existing
trends in the system. Each of the characteristics and processes
undergo changes which can be projected because of already existing
phenomena and because of actions which are already predictable,
e.g., human population growth. The description of the several
possible human interventions needs to include a comparison of the
diverse results which are possible from these alternatives. The
recommendation should follow logically from the above discussion
but the summary should clearly indicate why the null case is not
satisfactory. Almost any public investment, and particualrly
7-5
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FIGURE 7-1, SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS
ECOSYSTEM
RESOURCES
ecologists
models
studies
DESCRIPTIVE
DATA BASE
PUBLIC INPUT
HISTORICAL
SETTING
AND
STAGES
ECOSYSTEM
GOALS
SOCIAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
ECOSYSTEM VARIABLES AND PROCESSES
SOCIETY
NEEDS
V
EXISTING RATES
OF CHANGE
FACILITY
ALTERNATIVES
(engineers)
RESOURCE
CAPABILITY
UNITS
(planners)
PROJECTED
CATEGORIES
AND
PROCESSES -
IN THE
ECOSYSTEM
PROJECTED RESULTS
OF FACILITIES
ALTERNATIVES
TO THE
ECOSYSTEM
INCREMENTAL
AND
SYNERGISTIC
FACILITY
BY-PRODUCTS
OTHER FACILITIES
WTF OR HWY
-------
a wastewater treatment facility or a segment of a highway, makes
an incremental contribution to impacts which may not be clearly
evident from the impacts of the specific project itself. These
incremental effects need clear identification. Additionally, it
is most important to identify potential and assured synergistic
effects which will result because of the interaction between
various human interventions.
Purpose. The purpose of the methodology is to provide an
analysis of the direct impact of urbanization (i.e., the indirect
or secondary impacts of public investments, e.g., Waste Treatment
Facilities and Highways) on ecosystems and agricultural systems.
Consulting specialists are assumed to have the requisite know-
ledge and experience with the local situation to identify the
appropriate techniques.
The proposed Space-Time Analysis requires several general
steps.
I. Description of the existing state including
a. identification and location of ecological units and
categories
b. identification and characterization of the dynamic
ecological processes
c. description of the historical stages and setting
d. identification of environmental icons, ecological
goals, and the role of public participation
e. projection and description of changes which will
occur without additional human intervention (no action)
II. Description of each project alternative and its consequences
III. Description of incremental and synergistic effects accom-
panying each project alternative
IV. Recommendation of a specific action
V. Statement of required operational adjustments which result
from the recommended project.
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DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING STATE
Identification and location of ecological units and
categories and of the dynamic ecological processes which exist
at the present time in the region that may be impacted consti
tutes the information which has the largest documented data base
and which is most familiar to the decision-maker and to the EIS
writer. Descriptions of the historical stages and setting which
are read prior to an understanding of the unities and processes
under consideration lack meaning and lead to duplication of
descriptive elements. The identification of the envirnomental
elements that are important to the public are difficult to
perceive in the absence of an overall initial description because,
for example, a small hill in open plains might be more important
than the same size hill in the midst of the Rockies. Thus, the
logical order of goals, historical setting, units and processes,
and projection, in the absence of the project has been modified
by the realities of the descriptive process and particularly by
the two case studies.
The description of the existing state must emphasize the
dynamic nature of the ecosystem and provide special emphasis to
the trends and cycles present. Some of the cycles are self-
evident and include daily, seasonal, annual, and long term influ-
ences which result in movement of organisms, materials, and
processes in the ecosystem. Two significant trends are always
present: first, the orderly and often predictable events of
biological succession and second, the imposed trends which result
from the activities of man. Almost any descriptive tool can be
used to present the changes which are occurring, but a most
useful starting point needs to be the presentation of descriptions
of the ecological units and the expectation of change from one
unit to another. Thus, the following discussion provides an
indication of some of the descriptive analytical tools and their
usefulness to describe ecological units and to indicate the cycles
and trends which occur and their ability to project future events
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DESCRIPTIVE DATA BASE
The descriptive data base for ecological analysis is limited
only by the availability of time, money, and imaginative people.
Even so, these limits do exist and all information is not equally
useful. While almost any piece of information can become critical
in a given situation, some information appears more likely to be
of projective value in all cases. We can artificially group
information into the broad categories of Resource Data and Human
Use Data. From these data, we can identify units by the emphasis
of criteria perceived to be important to a particular analysis.
Resource Capability Units can be determined by the identification
of the range of capabilities which land will support or the range
of costs which are involved in using the land. Thus the cost of
building skyscrapers on sand, of raising wheat in marshes,and of
building houses on cliffs can be considered. Essentially the
same data can be used to identify Ecological Units; the criteria
emphasize the natural ecological process seasons and trends
identifiable in the region under study. While Resource Capability
Units are determined by emphasizing Human Use Data and Ecological
Units are determined by emphasizing Resource Data, both analyses
consider all available data. We will examine the descriptive
data available and then examine some methods of analysis which
can be used to determine Resource Capability Units and/or
Ecological Units.
RESOURCE DATA
For our purposes Resource Data refer to climate, soil
studies, hydrological studies, drainage patterns, aerial photos,
satellite imagery, topographic maps, species composition studies
(vegetation, wildlife, rare and endangered species), ecological
studies (community analysis, ecosystem modeling, successional
studies), and resource scholars with synthetic input not currently
otherwise accessible.
Climate.- Climate data can be obtained in tabular or computer
processible form from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration for pertinent weather stations. Temperature,
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precipitation, turbulent storms, and fog are of particular interest
because of the effects they have on the ecosystem and because of
their susceptibility to influence by urban areas,Atkinson (1971).
Adjacent weather stations can provide insights into the micro-
climate effects in an area, and, in the absence of the preferred
on site micrometeorological studies, comparable data may be available
from nearby biological or agricultural field stations.
Soils.- Soil maps are available from the U.S. Department
of Agricultural Soil Conservation Service for most areas; many
are accompanied by explanatory texts describing agricultural and
construction potentials. State geological surveys frequently
have helpful documents.
Hydrology and Geology. Hydrology and groundwater hydrology
data are often available from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Particular attention should be paid to surface and groundwater
flow records and to the distribution of recharge areas. Depths
to the water table can be inferred from the soil map. Data on
stream and lake chemistry may be available from previous EPA
studies (such as the Lake Eutrophication study and the North
American Project), the U.S. Geological Survey, state environmental
and water development agencies, area colleges, and local conserva-
tion groups.
Aerial Photographs can be ordered from the Agricultural
Stabilization and Conservation Service (for western states 2505
Parley's Way, Salt Lake City, Utah 84109, and for eastern states
45 South French Broad Ave., Asheville, North Carolina 28801).
Most large cities have aerial services that will do specific jobs,
and these may have recent aerial photos of the area of concern.
Topographic maps can be ordered from the Topographic Division,
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado 80225, or the Map
Information Office, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington, D.C. 20242.
Information on elevations, slopes,and topographic "grain" are
easily obtained from U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps.
Such information is important in understanding the pattern of micro-
climatic control on vegetation and wildlife and the disposition
of corridors for future development and transportation of man.
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Taken in conjunction with soil characteristics, the slopes indi-
cate impediments to urban growth, which should be considered in
the environmental analysis.
Satellite Imagery. Multispectral scanners and cameras have
been used by the Earth Resources program of the National Aero-
nautics and Space Administration. Information can be obtained
from ERR Data Facility, NASA, Johnson Space Center, Houston,
Texas 77058. Some material is available from state agencies
and this is usually more accessible to the user. The satellite
imagery suffers from missing data from cloud cover and because
ground truth is the responsibility of the user, although he is unable
to obtain prior information concerning the time of flights or
the area to be studied. Spectral bandwidth from 0.5 to 12.6
microns have been divided into channels (usually 5) and these
ranges result in the detection of various natural processes in
a variety of colors.
Species composition studies.- These may be available from
local universities, environmental groups, museums, state forestry,
wildlife agencies, game warden, U.S. Fish and Wildlife service,
and area naturalists. Both distribution and abundance are neces-
sary to understand ecosystem processes but detailed on-site
surveys have enormous resource requirements. Since plant and
animal distributions are related to habitats, it may be possible
to develop a sampling process which will identify a relatively
small number of sampling sites that can be representative of
the ecological variability in the region. Samples at different
seasons of the year and over several years are required. In the
absence of sufficient resources and time to do seasonal long-term
studies, comparable data from studies at nearby field stations or
ecological preserves may be helpful. Where these are lacking,
short-term sampling processes supplemented by literature review
and expert opinion will be necessary. The decision-maker needs
to know that less than the best data are available and that expert
opinion can attempt to identify the potential dangers which exist
when decisions are made with these inadequate data.
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The identification of rare and endangered species can be
made by local experts and local environmental groups from their
own studies and particularly from the recognized lists of these
species.
Ecological modeling studies. Access to these may be through
local universities, from The Institute of Ecology (Box A, Logan,
Utah 8432]), and from the various laboratories listed in the mode-
ling section of this study or from those listed in Parker and
Roop (1974). Ecological models available from engineers, state
agencies, and consulting firms are often oriented to process
application rather than to an understanding of ecosystem struc-
ture and function; to understand these processes, specialized
models are most useful. Also see Kadlec, 1971 and O'Neill et. al., 1970.
Community and successional studies. In general, these
are available only from experts in the field working in nearby
areas. These are studies which come closest to identifying the
Ecological Units and the dynamic ecosystem processes on a site-
specific basis. Communities are often identifiable by the local
non-expert resident, and, when he is the decision-maker, provides
him a comfortable approach.' Successional studies identify the
orderly processes of change which occur in ecosystems. Seasonal
and long-term trends in ecological units can be recognized. The
steps in these seasonal and trend processes are usually predict-
able and the causes of the change are often identifiable. Thus,
for example, local ecologists know that one type of forest will
be replaced by another forest unless human activities intervene.
Some heuristic models have been used to identify the rate of
transfer under natural conditions, and with human intervention.
HUMAN USE DATA
Data on human use of a region can be obtained from regional
planning documents, economic reports, zoning ordinances, land
use analyses, Forest Service maps, Agricultural Agency maps and
reports, historical landmarks lists, public and private wildlife
preserves and arboretums, Public Health Service reports, water
pollution studies, air pollution studies, waste pollution studies,
and transportation studies. Federal, state, and local government
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agencies provide access to these. On a regional basis, local
councils of government often serve as clearing houses for these
data. Description of the sources and utility of these data is
outside the scope of this study but these documents, when avail
able, often provide useful insights to ecological processes and
methods of presenting results to decision makers.
ANALYSIS OF THE DESCRIPTIVE DATA BASE
Any locality has an existing set of ecological units which
can be identified by terms familiar to the decision-maker. The
analysis of the descriptive data base serves to identify and
evaluate these ecological units and the ecological processes which
characterize these units. The analysis can include simple table
listings, multidimensional matrices, indices of distribution and
abundance maps (often with overlays), flowcharts identifying
relationships and processes, and complex multivariate processing
requiring computer programs and advanced statistical procedures.
The analysis of the descriptive data base needs to be made by a
team of ecologists throughly familiar with the local ecological
situation.
Tables and lists of data may be easy to obtain from regional
data banks. These lists attempt to identify the various homoge-
neous attributes in the region. Data banks are not universal
and when present they often contain abnormally large numbers of
errors. Tedious analyses, encoding, and keypunching by indivi
duals with no direct interest in the data take their toll. There-
fore, all data should be filed, checked, and the result of the
field checking at the site under consideration should constitute
an integral part of the EIS made available to the decision-maker.
Given some general listing of the data available in the form
of tables, one of two approaches can be made for further analysis.
First, the area can be divided into grids and the environmental
characteristics of each grid identified and stored in files or
preferably on computers. Second, the data may be grouped into
preliminary ecological units based on local experience and the
environmental characteristics of each unit identified and stored.
The first method is by far the most appealing scientifically but
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the second method may offer economies of time and funding. The
second method may be particularly applicable when a second or
third EIS is made in the same drainage basin by the same investi-
gators. When the grid method is used,the determination of the
size of the grid will often require compromises enforced by the
various users of the data. The grid has spatial location on the
site and all data can be collected and stored by grids (Murray
et al., 1971).
With the data in computer processible form other multiva-
riate procedures can be used to search for environmental rela-
tionships. These procedures can consider a number of co-occur-
ring characteristics simultaneously and are useful to the impact
analyst to quickly and objectively understand his data. A number
of summaries of multivariate techniques exist: Sneath and Sokal
(1975), Bryant and Atchley (1975), and Atchley and Bryant (1975)
may be useful. A number of computer packages are available;
perhaps the most widely distributed is that of Dixon (1968) ,
although many of the desirable procedures are available in any
of the packages. In general, multivariate analysis can be used
to provide elegant descriptions of data and to discern and to
describe interrelations between sets of data. These descriptions
are not useful without understanding the underlying biological
principles. The most comprehensive compilation of principles and
techniques for the identification of ecological units is that of
Whittaker (1973). The various ecological processes are best
understood by reference to the ecosystem models described in a
previous section.
Mapping. Maps constitute one of the quickest and most
easily understood means of presenting environmental unit data.
Most data will already be available in map form. Programs are
now generally available for the routine mapping of spatial data
using computer facilities; all that is necessary is to have the
data in machine-processible form, which is a requisite for most
analyses.
Typically, maps have been used to describe status quo condi-
tions. These include topography, soil type, vegetation, resource
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distribution, land use; etc. Maps are often based on extensive
ground surveys and aerial photography, with some use of satellite
imagery. Sometimes it is possible to identify unique combinations
of historical and natural resources by using a set of overlay maps
(McHarg, I., 1969). Master plans which project desired land use
patterns for a county or region twenty- five or more years in the
future typically fail to describe impacts.
Maps have the great virtue of literally giving the viewer
a "big picture" and development can be seen in relation to exis-
ting features, natural or man-made. However, excessive or exclu-
sive use of mapped information may confuse the eye and confound
the issues. Additionally, mapped information reflects the ade-
quacy of the original data; if it is precise, a resulting map
may be useful. If the original data and poor, the map may be
nearly useless as an analytical tool. Moreover mapped information
tends to be static and does not reflect past, present, or future
dynamics .
Diversity Indices.- The most notable attempts to combine
the measures of species richness and evenness were made by Simpson,
Shannon and Weiner and Brillouin. The simplest index, Simpson's
C (Simpson, 1949), is based on the probability that two indivi
duals randomly chosen from a population, without replacement,
belong to the same species.
_ * n.(n. 1)
. N(N-l)
where C is the diversity index, N is the total number of indivi
duals in all species sampled, n- is the number of individuals in
the -th species, s is the total number of species. This index
is most appropriate if the relative degree of dominance of a few
species is of more interest than the overall evenness.
Brillouin 's H and Shannon-Weiner ' s H' (Shannon and Weiner,
1963) were derived from information theory and measure the uncer-
tainty of predicting the species to which an individual drawn at
random from the population belongs. Brillouin 's H assumes all
members of the community are identified and counted.
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H = dog10N! Ilog10n.I)
where c is a constant used to convert logarithms base 10 to the
chosen base of measurement (c = 3.321928 for base 2 and c =
2.302585 for base e).
The Shannon-Weiner Index H' assumes a random sample from
an infinitely large population and all of the species of the
community are represented
H' = I p log p.
j = l J J
n.
where p • = TT^- or the proportion of the total number of indivi
duals contained in the i species. These two information
indices (H and H1) are affected less by the extremely abundant
or rare species than by the moderately abundant species.
Species diversity reduces many community measurements to
a single number and consequently is liable to oversimplification.
The combination of richness and evenness can result in ambiguity.
High diversity results from a high number of species and an
even distribution of individuals among species. An ecosystem
with a large number of species and an uneven distribution could
have the same total diversity as one with few species and even
distribution. This problem has been alleviated by using indices
of both species richness and evenness.
Species richness indices (d)
1) d = S = number of species
2) d = (S - l)/logN N = total number of indi
3) d = S//N viduals
Evenness index (e)
e = H/H = H/log s H = Shannon Index
111 d A.
= $ log {[N/S] i}s-r{[(N/S)+l]!}r r = N - S[N/S]
Cluster analysis classifies the data into hierarchical
groups on the basis of common patterns or similarities of the
distributions of characteristics. The results are presented as
dendrograms, with the level of branching indicating the level of
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similarity. Both cells and characteristics can be compared in
this way. Thus, characteristics that tend to occur together can
be identified including the obvious grouping of lake and lakeshore
characteristics and the less obvious grouping of income-intensive
horticulture, specialty farms,and light manufacturing with utility
lines. Cells that are similar can also be identified,and, by
means of a matrix presentation, they can be compared with the
clusters of characteristics in order to understand the overall
patterns of land use and/or ecosystems in the impact area.
Therefore, cluster analysis can be a powerful tool, sharpening
the analyst's perception of environmental classes.
Matrices. Multidimensional aspects of the analysis can
be presented in two dimensional-tables with the individual entries
identifying more than one characteristic. Leopold (1971) used
entries which provided a subjective rating of the magnitude of
impact and the importance of the impact. These matrices are
certainly useful as a preliminary exercise in ordering priorities.
Ordination is not as easily understood by most people.
However, if the technique is mastered, it can be quite useful in
the interpretation of environmental relationships (Bray and
Curtis, 1957; Park, 1968, 1974; Hill, 1973). Using the same
basis for computation of similarities as cluster analysis, points
representing the cells can be arrayed in two-dimensional space
on the basis of their dissimilarities to each other, and avail-
able information can be plotted in the resulting model of parti-
cular interest in principal component analysis.
If R = correlation matrix formed from the vector x. of
measures of atributes of ecological units of
arbitrary grids
X-= the i eigenvalue
i .T
U = the i direction cosine eigenvector
I = identity matrix
then (R XI) = 0
and (R AI)Ui = 0
= p = principal component score for the sample
i i
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Factor analytic methods allow rotation of axes to identify the
correlation between factors. A number of modifications and
applications of ordination techniques are available.
Discriminant Function Analysis. Several discriminatory
methods are available to provide a tool for maximizing the dif-
ferences between samples. The relation between the sample dif-
ferences and the predictor variables can be expressed as a linear
discriminant function (Fisher, 1938). This method has great
potential for objectively identifying areas of possible impact,
given some knowledge of key environmental characteristics. As
regional data banks grow and more experience is gained in the
analysis of impacts, it should be possible to derive discriminant
functions of general application.
Discriminant analysis has a long history of usage, and many
programs are available. In all programs the sample characteristics
are weighted in such a manner as to minimize the overlap between
classes of samples (or cells of the previous examples). The
weightings of characteristics are used in equations for determin-
ing the scores by which additional samples can be assigned to the
respective classes. If the samples are classified on the basis
of qualities or environmental impacts then the procedure can be
used to identify areas subject to impact as in the hypothetical
example .
When
q^k= i quality measure of the k group.
W = within group variance covariance matrix
A = between group variance covariance matrix
^i § ui = eigenvalue and eigenvector
U- = discriminant coefficients
then
W 1A Xl =0
(W A XiI)U = 0
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and
X.iUi = di
station
= discriminant score of the k water sample
. th
V^ = W..IL = vector relating significance of the i
measure to the discriminant function
Aj_ magnitude tests statistical significance of
discriminant function.
Canonical correlation analysis. Variation between sets
of variables can be approached by canonical correlation (Kendall
and Stuart, 1966), which allows us to study the relation between
the variation in the set of quality characteristics (chemicals,
bacterial counts, flow, turbidity) and the set of predictors
(weather, soil, vegetation, urbanization). Canonical correlation
analysis is an exploratory tool, which provides an idea of the
structure of the multivariate complex and gives us the maximum
amount of correlation between linear functions of the groups of
variables.
If Rr>r)= correlation matrix of predictor variables
R = correlation matrix of quality variables
R^ = intercorrelation matrix of quality and predictors
then
(Rqq lRpqRPP \p - AiJ) Ui = °
The largest root, A^, is the square of maximum possible correla-
tion between linear combinations of the two sets of measures, and
the standardized U^ provide the correlations between the sets of
variables.
Canonical correlation analysis is intuitively related to
other multivariate procedures such as principle components,and
indeed Glahn (1968) has demonstrated its relation to discriminant
analysis and multiple regression.
Impact Flowcharts. Many impacts are not amenable to model-
ing, but rather are best determined on the basis of the insights
and experience of environmental specialists.
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Impact flowcharts are practical aids to this type of intui
tive analysis, both as an exercise in conceptualization and as
a valuable means for presenting that conceptualization to
decision-makers. They show qualitative relationships in a
chronological perspective. Starting with a source event (con-
struction of wastewater treatment facility or highway), a flowchart
shows a logical sequence of cause and effect. Since one cause
usually has multiple effects, branching occurs.
This form of presentation is particularly applicable in
suggesting secondary impacts with all their ramifications. By
using heavier lines,it is possible to emphasize differences in
the magnitude of initial impacts or to show that secondary impacts
may be greater than primary impacts; but these distinctions,
unless based on actual measurements, will remain subjective.
Perhaps the greatest value of a flowchart is that it can help
identify sensitive areas and areas where environmental tradeoffs
are involved. Once these are identified, the impact analyst can
concentrate on obtaining more objective estimates of their
response to anticipated changes.
One difficulty with this intuitive approach is that it does
require a breadth of training in environmental sciences. To
implement it, an in-house team representing terrestrial and aquatic
biology, geology, environmental engineering, agronomy-soils, and
planning is required.
Models. Models are physical analogs or mathematical
descriptions. They may be simple, elegant, precise, robust, gen-
eral, sensitive, heuristic, complex; unfortunately, seldom more
than a few of these characteristics fit a single model. Models
are often used to assess the result of a particular action under
conditions where assumptions can be made about the variables, the
interactions between the variables, and the time over which the
projections are required. Mostly models do small jobs very well;
when they are large enough to do a comprehensive analysis, they
often lack generality and precision. Experimental components
systems analysis require "that the characteristics of any specific
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example of a complex process can be determined by the action and
interaction of a number of discrete components" (Rolling, 1965,
p. 201). Large systems models, use computers for storage of data
and of component mathematical models and the various parts are
treated as separate compartments. This has provided for the
development of precise models for the components of the Eastern
Deciduous Forest Biome,while allowing considerable flexibility
in developing the understanding of the overall interactions
between the components (Reichle, 1975).
Ecological Units and Ecological Processes
The results of the analysis of the Resource Data should be
the identification of the ecological units and the ecological
processes which characterize each of those units. While it is
easy to assume the position that each individual, or even each
cell is a significant living unit and deserves consideration in
an Environmental Impact Statement, it is clear that cells and
individuals may have life spans several orders of magnitude less
than the ecological units which characterize the ecosystem.
Ecological units identify groups of individuals that interact
together and have common ecological processes that can be measured
and that are impacted by changes in environment. An integral
component of the analysis of ecological units and ecological
processes is an understanding of biotic diversity.
The simplest definition of biotic diversity is the number
of different categories of biotic entities in an area. The
categories may be growth forms, habitats, vertical strata of
occurrence, community processes (variety of cycles and fluxes),
or commonly, taxonomic groupings. Habitat diversity (heterogeneity,
process diversity, complexity), and biotic diversity (total species
numbers and evenness) contribute to the diversity of an ecosystem
as well as to each other. Heterogeneity increases biotic diversity
by making possible the coexistence of species with different
adaptations and requirements. Furthermore, a complex web of pro-
cesses is a logical consequence of many species sharing an
ecosystem. Diversity thus has both static spatial and dynamic
temporal elements.
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A species population is assumed to fluctuate less widely
in numbers in a diverse community. This diversity-stability link
seems quite logical but it has been difficult to demonstrate in
highly diverse communities. Diversity may contribute to "checks
and balances" and it may provide buffering and redundancy, leading
to greater stability at the population, community, and ecosystem
level, but the contribution of diversity to homeostasis at any
level is not easily measured.
Two factors cause one system to have a higher diversity than
another: (1) more species (greater species richness), or (2) indi-
viduals which are more evenly distributed among the species (grea-
ter evenness). One system may have a greater species richness if
(1) it is closer to an abundant supply of organisms which can
successfully live in it, (2) its area is greater, (3) its mosaic
of similar habitats is more dense, (4) its chemical environment
is less stressful, (5) its climate is less variable or more predic-
table, (6) its ecosystem is biologically controlled, and (7) its
physical diversity is greater. A system has great evenness if no
one species is highly dominant. The combination of these two
components is species diversity.
While the identification of ecological units and ecological
processes is site-specific, certain commonalities will form the
basis of any analysis. These are (1) succession, (2) trends and
gradients, (3) productivity and energy flow, and (4) mineral
cycling. Succession is the replacement of one community by ano-
ther, often in an orderly and predictable sequence. The sequence
may be initiated on bare rock or open water or on subtrates pro-
duced by human activity and should terminate in predictable commu-
nities. Human interventions may alter the rate of succession or
even return it to step one (strip mining or formation of a new
reservoir). Human interventions may also stimulate the rate of
succession (reclamation, fertilizers). Succession is characterized
by change in species structure, increase in biomass and organic
matter accumulation, and a gradual balancing of community production
and respiration. If the environment remains relatively constant,
the species which inhabit an area will gradually modify it so that
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it is no longer favorable to their own survival. However, the
environment is made favorable for another community or organisms.
Eventually, a self-maintaining, usually leng-lived, terminal
community appears (climax community). This community will remain
as long as the environment is free from disturbance.
Few communities are actually free from disturbance. In
addition to natural perturbations, man disturbs natural systems
with fire, harvesting natural production, and grazing wild and
domestic stock. Perhaps most significantly, man has cleared
large areas of natural vegetation and replaced it with simple,
highly artificial communities of species adapted to grow on dis-
turbed sites.
The terminal communities in a given area may be altered by
major gradients and changes in the climate regime. Additionally,
microclimatic and microenvironmental gradients result in changes
in the rate of succession which can be measured and identified.
Replacement of forest by agriculture, plains by cities, and rivers
by large lakes result in microclimatic shifts which alter the
predicted course and result of succession. The general trend of
urbanization, agricultural expansion,and lake development can be
measured and projected.
Man's modification of natural areas follows a succession-
like format. Natural land is used for recreation, then for graz-
ing, then for farming. Farmland near the city is often allowed
to lay fallow a few years before residential suburban homes are
built on it. Finally industrial and urban areas the climax
stage of human succession - appear. This succession is character-
ized by air and water pollution from industrial and domestic
waste. Aquatic systems associated with urban systems are usually
eutrophic.
One of the outstanding characteristics of natural communities
is their dynamic nature. Man's systems can also evolve quickly into
humanly more complex and biologically simpler systems. However,
they revert to their natural state very slowly. Thus, both trend
and gradient analysis become necessary components in the under-
standing of the role of human interventions on the ecosystem.
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Most of the ecosystem processes are related to productivity,
energy flow, and mineral cycling. Simple food chain relations
illustrate and summarize complex trophic interactions. Models
of ecosystem processes summarized in other sections can provide
guidelines for understanding the site-specific characteristics
of the identified ecological units. Clearly an understanding
of the projected changes in productivity, energy flow, and mineral
cycling of each ecological unit is necessary to understand the
successional and long-term trends of the ecosystem and particularly
to understand the significance of a particular human intervention.
Historical Framework
An identification of historical changes is necessary to an
understanding of the additional impacts to be provided by current
and future human activity. Few truly "natural" areas exist today
in the contiguous United States - all have been affected to some
degree by the activities of man. Previous ecosystem states and
responses provide a clue to the continuing vulnerability and
resiliency of an area. Much of North America has changed signif-
icantly since the maximum glacial advance and these changes are
well documented in the paleoecological literature. Less well
documented, but surely equally significant, are the impacts of
the gathering, hunting, and agricultural activities of pre-European
man. Somewhat better documented, if not better understood, are
the changes European man produced. A summary of these historical
changes contributes to an understanding of the additional impacts
of current and future human activity. The historical consideration
also requires a recognition of the natural cycles known to exist:
seasonal, long-term cycles, and generally recognized successional
trends. This preliminary statement assures that the decision-
maker will be prepared to consider each affector and each changing
variable in an appropriate time perspective -
Recent Changes in Ecological Units. In order to predict
the continuing changes that will occur without additional inter-
vention, it is necessary to have some baseline data on recent
rates of change in the amount of land occupied by the ecological
7-24
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units. The relationships of these rates to site-specific factors,
such as soil types, slopes, and aesthetics need to be determined.
Fortunately, most areas of the country have data that were
"captured" every few years and that are available for analysis of
land-use trends. One data resource is in the form of aerial photo-
graphs (Hett, 1972).
With compatible time-series data in machine-processible
form, it is possible to calculate yearly rates of change in
land-use categories and to determine relationships to site-specific
characteristics. Furthermore, computer-derived maps can be
printed for each characteristic and time period, giving the analyst
a "feel" for the dynamics, and the decision-maker an understanding
of the impact of additional human intervention.
Determination of the space and time of impact.- For any
impact statement to provide a tool for the decision-maker, the
area to be impacted and the time of the impact need to be clearly
identified. These are probably best done in relation to the
historical setting, so that the projection of changes and partic-
ularly of rate of changes in the future have a basis for evaluation.
While the ecosystem is generally considered unbounded, to
understand the structure and function at any time and place, some
attempt to provide bounds is required. Distantly removed components
will be less impacted than those close at hand but variations in
value and stability may override first impressions. Value may
lie in uniqueness, in providing an economic basis to human exis-
tence, or by providing ecosystem stability (a wilderness area, a
commercial forest, a watertable). Even so, some ecosystem boundaries
are required both with respect to space and time. With a Waste
Treatment Facility, the distribution lines will identify the area
where secondary development will be promoted, and the expected nature
of this development will serve as an indicator of the type of
urbanization expected. Additionally, this urbanization will pro-
vide impacts beyond the boundaries of the urbanization itself (e.g.,
agriculture and recreation areas).
Significant time units, those describing the time when rapid
changes will take place (generally primary impacts) as well as the
7-25
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time during which little evident change will be expected, but
during which potentially significant secondary impacts appear
should be identified. During the years of initial and accelerated
public infrastructure development, the most rapid changes are
likely to occur in the land-use distribution of ecological units
and in ecosystem parameters. The consideration of time must also
include the ordinary life span of the facility, including replace-
ment on-site and in kind and the effects which may remain after
the facility is no longer functional as designed.
Environmental Goals
The environmental goals, with respect to the ecosystem, of
the general human community will influence the recommended decision.
Certainly the development of a Waste Treatment Facility in a busy
harbor will require different goals than the development on a
stream in a National Park. The statement of goals should identify
each unique ecosystem unit ("icons") which exist in the area.
The existence of state, regional, and local environmental plans
and how well each provides an understanding of and protection for
ecosystem structure and function should be indicated.
Adequate description of the area in terms of ecologic char-
acteristics will facilitate the identification of environmentally
sensitive areas and permit the consideration of specific environ-
mental goals. Value may lie in uniqueness, in providing economic
substructure to human existence, or by providing ecosystem stability
(a wilderness area, a commercial forest, a watertablej. The
protection of nesting grounds, deer yards, and unique ecosystems
from development is a valid goal under almost any circumstances.
Likewise, the preservation of wetlands, stream banks, sand plains
(including farms), and steep shorelines critical to the functioning
of the ecosystem is of definite merit. Trained environmentalists
should have little difficulty in identifying these areas.
Public parks and other environmentally-oriented recreation
areas should not be degraded by permitting high-density developments
and highways in proximity. By the same token, protection should be
given to sites of historical or archaeological interest.
7-26
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Identification of scenic vistas and other aesthetic charac-
teristics is a little more difficult. Value judgment should
take into consideration the environmental perception of the local
residents. As a practical matter, decision-makers are more likely
to support a particular course of action if the populace is known
to be sympathetic toward the environmental goal.
Questionnaires can be used to determine public opinion. The
simplest forms do nothing more than document general attitudes.
More elegant forms can yield detailed information on the rela
tionship of regional economics and lifestyles to environmental
amenities but may be less satisfactory because of sampling costs
and analysis complexities.
Environmental perception of recreationists, cottage- and
homeowners, and businessmen has been extensively studied in many
resort areas (Kooyoomjian, 1974; Kooyoomjian and Clesceri,
1974) .
Projections of Changes Without Additional Human Intervention
Given an adequate identification of ecological units and
ecological processes, and an understanding of the historical trends
and the perceived environmental goals, the projection of ecosystem
changes requires the development of a systematic analytical
approach. One such approach is shown in the figure where a
variety of inputs are used to drive ecosystem models that result
in output projections of ecological land use, ecosystem responses,
and incremental and synergistic effects.
Ecological land use models can be used to develop transfer
matrices which will project changes in the distribution and
abundance of some of the ecological units (Hett, 1971; Carlisle
and Park, 1975). Land development consultants can identify the
most probable type of development likely to occur in a specific
site and can point out areas of comparable development. A new
housing development served by a particular WTF or highway will
be designed and will function much like other developments already
in the area. Engineers can project some of changes in the amount
and location of the chemical and physical characteristics of
7-27
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FIGURE 7-2. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING TRENDS USING ECOSYSTEM MODELS
txj
oo
SOURCE
Other
Specialists
Ecologists
Community
INPUT
Impact matrix
Impact Flow Chart
Land Use Data
Classification of
Ecological Land
Use Type
Ecological Data
Ecosystem Dynamics
Environmental
Goals $ Reserves
t
Environmental
Perception
MODELS
OUTPUT
Alternatives
No Additional
Human Intervention
Land Use Model
output becomes input
Projected Land Uses
Terrestrial § Aquatic
Ecosystem Models
Ecosystem Responses
output becomes input
Incremental §
Synergistic Models
Incremental §
Synergistic Effects
\
Decision or
Recommendation
of Action
output becomes input
I
_J
frnote implied use of successional model
-------
water, soils and air, and changes in weather patterns, which will
result from the presence of these housing, commercial, or industrial
developments. Additionally, changes in the chemical and physical
constitution of nearby lakes and streams can be projected (but
with still less accuracy), and these chemical and physical changes
can constitute inputs to the ecosystem models,
If an area is currently served by septic tanks or by an
inadequate WTF, the ecosystem may be changed by the growth and
development which will occur whether or not adequate WTF service
is provided. Abandoned agricultural land in any area goes through
a process of succession which may be projected by identifying and
studying fields of comparable slope and exposure that have been
abandoned for various periods of time. Lakes and ponds in an
area change at rates that can be identified from ecosystem models
and by examination of other lakes and ponds of known age and
comparable conditions. As a nearby city expands, the diversity
of plants and animals changes as a result of human activity
outside and within the impacted area. For land use by each
ecological type, the decision-maker needs to be able to identify
the changes which would occur during the useful life of the
infrastructure even if the facility is not constructed.
Other forces that change the ecosystem and produce long-term
cycles and trends in the values of the ecosystem variables need
to be identified. Natural forces include succession and seasonal
changes. Existing sources of human intervention and their effect
should be identified.
Perhaps the most useful approach for the decision-maker
would be to identify for each ecological unit a comparable area
which the decision-maker can visit to understand the projected
situation. Each ecosystem variable that will be changed in each
ecological unit needs to be identified, and projections of the
amount and timing of these changes need to be described. Comparison
of the current values (and the variability of those variables
in existing situations) of comparable development stages may be
useful in presenting the changes to the decision-maker. Presen-
tation of these ecological units and projected changes can be by
7-29
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sequential maps or by maps with overlays. The maps should empha-
size those seasonal, successional, and long term trend character-
istics which are most sensitive to change. The categorization
of ecological units should emphasize ecosystem in addition to
human activity. One available method is described by Dansereau
(1974), but local specialists can provide comparable schemes.
Some factors will probably be known to have an effect on the
ecosystem, but the amount and ultimate consequences of that effect
may be indeterminate. These factors should be identified and
possible boundaries placed on their contribution to changing the
ecosystem. It will be difficult to identify all of the forces
of change; however, the decision-maker needs to know what propor-
tion of the changes are likely to be the result of unidentifiable
sources. Finally, the decision-maker needs to understand when
the situation may change in entirely new and unpredictable ways.
In summary, a team of ecologists should be charged to:
1. Develop a comprehensive checklist of the potentially
available and needed information to determine the ecological units
and the ecosystem structure and functions. Ecological goals, environ-
mental preserves, parks, endangered species, and the historical
stages and setting should be indicated by sociological, paleontol
ogical and archaelogical studies. The list should be regional and
site specific.
2. Identify the natural forces producing change including
succession and seasons (trends and cycles) in the variables: 1)
ecosystem variables and processes, 2) existing sources of human
interventions, 3) unknown consequences of various indentifiable
factors and 4) variability of unidentified source.
3. Where possible, identify the organic and non-toxic assimi
lative capacities of various ecosystem units for each substance with
particular emphasis on federal, state or local laws, standards and
regulations.
4. Determine the models, the processes and variables which
should be available and appear to explain the observable rates of
change in the ecosystem with particular emphasis on seasonal suc-
cessional and trend changes. Determine the models to be used, the
cost of computer runs, the driving variables to be used and the
range of expected results. 7-xn
-------
5. Examine the available data and determine whether or not
the resolution, (e.g. grid size), precision, variability and con-
sistency is adequate.
6. Determine whether or not the data actually available is
likely to be sufficient to make necessary projections in changes
of amount of ecological categories, variable values and process
rates. Is all the data necessary? Considerable effort should
be made to reduce the original checklist to a small necessary and
sufficient set of characteristics.
7. Determine what new data is needed and estimate both the
cost and likelihood of obtaining that data.
8. Develop ad hoc analyses appropriate to the site specific
special conditions.
9. Perform the necessary analyses to describe the existing
dynamic aspects of the ecosystem with particular emphasis on the
projection of the change which will occur without additional human
intervention.
CHANGES ACCOMPANYING EACH PROJECT ALTERNATIVE
For any facility there are a number of alternative locations
and for each there are a number of potential development patterns
that can result. Since the urban development pattern may have
greater and more long term impacts than the proposed facility on
the ecological land use patterns and thus on the ecosystem param-
eters, these possible development patterns need to be emphasized
in the description.
Land development consultants can identify the most probable
type of development likely to occur in a given area and can point
out comparable already developed areas nearby. Engineers can
project some of the changes in the amount and location of the
chemical and physical characteristics of water, soil and air and
changes in weather patterns, which will result from the presence
of these housing, commercial or industrial developments. Addition
ally changes in the chemical and physical constitution of nearby
lakes and streams can be projected (but with still less accuracy).
7-31
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For example, implementation of the models for land-use
changes and ecosystem structure and function patterns, and con-
sequent effects on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, is
relatively straightforward. Construction of a WTF would remove
the restriction placed on housing development by soils that are
unsuitable for septic systems, allowing the removal of the site-
specific soil reduction term and thus greatly increasing the
probability of development in certain areas. Because of the com-
ponent nature of ecosystem models, their linkage is limited only
by the inventiveness of the scientist and the structure of the
ecosystem.
DESCRIPTION OF THE INCREMENTAL AND SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS
The most difficult aspect of the measurement of the impacts
of urbanization are those which relate to the accumulative effect
of regional urbanization. While it is easy to see that most of
the world is not urbanized, it is not easy to measure that urban
populations are massive consumer units for the products of the
extensive agricultural forest, and range land. Thus, land con-
verted from agricultural to urban uses will require increased
technological efficiency of the remaining agricultural land or
will require more land to be converted from natural to agricultural
land to support that urbanized area. The land remaining for new
agricultural development is often marginal and requires increased
capital investment and higher maintenance cost.
Since WTF and highways do not really stand alone but tend
to accumulate in pockets along corridors, streams, or lakes, they
tend to result in development patterns (urbanizations) along these
corridors. Each forest, lake, stream, river, or estuary assimilates
some organic and non-toxic material and energy from surrounding
air, water, or soil. This material and energy is built into trees,
grass, or algae which is in turn transformed into insects, birds,
fish, and other creatures. Presumably the more individuals and
the more species of plants and animals present in an ares, the
more material and energy they will be able to absorb without
7-32
-------
significantly changing the nature of the ecosystem. The mono-
cultures typical of cropland will absorb only a small portion of
that which is absorbed by rangeland, and overgrazed areas will
absorb far less than well-managed areas.
Clearly, all the surface of the earth cannot become a city
because the city depends on the surrounding ecosystem. A critical
question to ask is how much of the ecosystem can be replaced by
city and still provide sufficient available biological productivity
to support that city. There are two answers: the ultimate answer
which is delineated by the capacities of the ecosystem itself,
and the technological answer which is constrained by the ability
of man to make those resources available. Being able to express
an ultimate boundary in terms convincing to those who are buffered
from the influences of the feedback from limiting or reduced avail
able resources is not an easy task.
This study suggests the necessity of considering that the
incremental effect of continued urbanization in a single area may
overtax the available productivity of that area. This would
increase the technological requirements to import resources from
and export wastes to greater distances. In such a case, the recom-
mended course of action should result in preservation of that
ecosystem even if this requires the selection of a no action (non-
construction of infrastructure facilities) alternative, which,
in turn, precludes further urbanization.
Synergistic effects are even more complex to determine.
Almost any process can interact with almost any other process to
produce effects larger or smaller than would be predicted by
the separate measurement of the two processes. Will two wastewater
treatment facilities on opposite sides of a stream result in
development patterns so different that the two street runoffs will
mix to produce greater effects than would be predicted from either
project? Experience suggests that this will happen and that we
will probably not be able to identify it beforehand, but the EIS
analyst should seriously examine the possibility and be sure that
the decision-maker is informed of the potential hazards.
7-33
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Clearly some overview which assures basinwide (nation wide)
consideration of the consequences of each additional WTF or HWY
is required. Any EIS that fails to determine the presence and
absence of these institutional structures and their strengths
and weaknesses has failed to provide the decision maker (ultimately
the public) with an adequate consideration of the consequences
to the ecosystem of the facility. Any approach which places the
engineer or the ecologist in the position of informing the decision
maker of how much the water or air will change with the addition
of one more infrastructure investment will fail to provide any
environmental protection. The methodology must provide for a
consideration of all facilities which will be required to respond
to human population growth and development in the basin.
Both incremental and synergistic effects are difficult to
determine. This suggests the necessity of developing a reasonable
basin wide monitoring program designed to provide early warning
identification of problems. The funding of the monitoring
investigative and development program should be included in the
individual facilities or the EIS should clearly state that no
funding is provided. The potential consequences of the absence
of a monitoring program should be clearly delineated.
DESCRIPTION OF THE RECOMMENDED ACTION
The recommended action of an EIS uses the sum of all social,
economic, and environmental factors. The conclusion reached by
the ecological analysis may differ from that reached by the
planner or engineer. The conclusion of the planner may be
constrained by short-term economic values, while the conclusion
of the ecologist may emphasize the long-term viability of the
ecosystem. The decision-maker needs to be able to identify the
ecological cost of the Environmental Impact Statement's recom-
mended action.
7-34
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REQUIRED OPERATIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
Once there is a recommended action, a number of unanswered
questions will remain. The facility will provide for a given
capacity. Mechanisms will be required to assure that urbanization
is not more than projected and that the facility is not overtaxed.
Some legislative adjustment will be required or the necessary
feedback between ecosystem and urbanization will not be achieved.
If these legislative adjustments are not provided, the consequences
(impacts) need to be expressly stated for the decision-maker.
Often societal structures impose actions which depend on the
development of new technologies; when these technologies are lack-
ing or their development is delayed, the impacts may be considerable
Incremental and synergistic effects are very difficult to predict;
a monitoring system may provide an early warning mechanism to pro-
tect the public and the environment. The cost of a monitoring
system needs to be included in the design of the facility.
SPACE-TIME ANALYSIS AND THE PLANNING PROCESS
Section 201 and 208, Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments of 1972, require facilities and areawide planning,
respectively. The generalized 201 process is shown on the accom-
panying figure. Space-Time Analysis is appropriate to the
Environmental Assessment Preparation and should be indicated as
an integral part of the plan of study proposed to state agencies
and the EPA. The results from Space-Time Analysis can serve as
the basis for a negative declaration or as the basis for the prep-
aration of the final EIS.
Space-Time Analysis is particularly appropriate for the
areawide planning process because of its emphasis on the dynamic
aspects of an already changing environment and because the process
will lead to an examination of the incremental and synergistic
relations which are likely to accompany areawide development.
Space-Time Analysis is compatible with "Guidelines for
areawide waste treatment management planning" and "Guidance for
preparing a facility plan." For both facility planning and for
7-35
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FIGURE 7-3. GENERALIZED 201 PROCESS
APPLICANT SUBMITS
PLAN OF STUDY TO
STATE § EPA
APPROVAL
PUBLIC HEARINGS
FACILITIES PLAN §
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
ASSESSMENT PREPARED
STATE REVIEW
\
EPA REVIEW
NOTICE OF INTENT
TO PREPARE EIS
ANALYSIS
PUBLIC HEARING
DISTRIBUTION OF
DRAFT STATEMENTS
\/
45 DAY REVIEW PERIOD
ANALYSE, PREPARE
§ DISTRIBUTE FINAL EIS
30 DAY WAITING PERIOD
--optional
GRANT AWARD
7-36
NOTICE OF INTENT TO
MAKE NEGATIVE
DECLARATION
\
NEGATIVE DECLARATION
V
15 DAY WAITING PERIOD
-------
areawide planning, Space-Time Analysis provides a means for assur
ing that adequate consideration is given to "the maintenance and
enhancement of long-term productivity" NEPA(1969) 102(c) (iv) .
7 37
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Biological Program, National Academy of Sciences, Washington,
D. C.
Walton, L. E., Jr., and J. E. Lewis, A Manual For Conducting
Environmental Impact Studies, Virginia Highway Research
Council (January, 1971).
Warner, M. L., and E. H. Preston. 1974. A review of environ-
mental impact assessment methodologies. U. S. Government
Printing Office. Wash. EPA-600/5-74-002.
Western Systems Coordinating Council, Environmental Committee,
Environmental Guidelines (1971). (Mr. Robert Coe, Southern
California Electric Co., Environmental Committee (Chairman).
Whittaker, R. H., ed. 1973. Ordination and Classification of
Communities. Handbook of Vegetation Science. W. Junk, The
Hague.
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GLOSSARY
Adopted from: An Ecological Glossary for engineers
and resource managers. The Institute of Ecology.
ADAPTATION The result of process of long-term evolutionary
adjustment of a population to environmental changes.
ALGAE - Any of a group of chiefly marine or freshwater chloro-
phyll-bearing aquatic plants with no true leaves, stems or
roots. Ranging from microscopic single-cell organisms or
colonies (ponduceds) to large macroscopic seaweeds, etc.
ALGAL BLOOM Rapid and flourishing growth of algae.
ANAEROBIC Capable of living or active in the absence of air
or free oxygen.
ANNUAL Pertaining to yearly occurrence.
ANNUAL INCREMENT - That which is added or gained in one year.
ANOXIC Pertaining to conditions of oxygen deficiency.
AQUACULTURE Production of food from managed aquatic systems.
ASSIMILATION Transformation of absorbed nutrients into body
substances.
ASSOCIATION A definite or characteristic assemblage of plants
living together in an area essentially uniform in environ-
mental conditions; any ecological unit of more than one
species.
BATHYAL - Of/ lake or ocean bottoms of very deep water, e.g.
below 300 meters in a lake or below 5000 m. in the sea.
BENTHIC - Of/ the bottom of lakes or oceans. Of/ organisms
which live on the bottom of water bodies.
BENTHOS Those organisms which live on the bottom of a body of
water.
BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY - The number of kinds of organisms per unit
area or volume; the richness of species in a given area.
BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND - The amount of oxygen required to
decompose (oxidize) a given amount of organic compounds to
simple, stable substances.
BIOMASS The total weight of matter incorporated into (living
and dead) organisms.
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BIOME Any of the major terrestrial ecosystems of the world
such as tundra, deciduous forest, desert, taiga, etc.
CARRYING CAPACITY The maximum population size of a given species
in an area beyond which no significant increase can occur
without damage occurring to the area and to the species.
CLIMATE The average conditions of the weather over a number of
years; macroclimate is the climate representative of rela
tively large area; microclimate is the climate of a small
area, particularly that of the living space of a certain
species, group or community.
CLIMAX The final, stable community in an ecological succession
(q.v.) which is able to reproduce itself indefinitely under
existing conditions.
CLIMAX COMMUNITY see climax.
CODOMINANT Any of equally dominant forms; one of several species
which dominant a community, no one to the exclusion of the
others.
COMMUNITY All of the plants and animals in an area or volume;
a complex association usually containirz both animals and
plants.
COMMUNITY METABOLISM - The combined metabolism (metabolic activity)
of all organisms in a given area or community.
COMMUNITY RESPIRATION The combined respiration of all organisms
in a community.
CONIFER Pines, cedars, hemlocks, etc; any of a type of (mostly)
evergreen trees and shrubs with (botanically) true cones.
CONSUMER An organisms that consumes another.
CONSUMER (PRIMARY) An organism which consumes green plants.
CONSUMER (SECONDARY) An organism which consumes a primary con-
sumer. (q.v.)
DECIDUOUS Falling off or actively shed at maturity or at certain
seasons.
DECOMPOSERS Those organisms, usually bacteria (q.v.) or fungi,
which participate in the breakdown of large molecules
associated with organisms. Hence, those organisms which
recycle dead organisms.
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DENTRIFICATION - Chemical conversion of nitrates to molecular
(gaseous) nitrogen (N2) or to nitrous oxide or to ammonia
by bacteria or by lightning.
DISSOLVED OXYGEN - An amount of gaseous oxygen dissolved in
volume of water.
DIVERSITY - see, biological diversity.
DOMINANCE The degree of influence (usually inferred from the
amount of area covered) that a species exerts over a com-
munity .
DOMINANT An organism that controls the habitat at any stage of
development; in practice the organism that is most conspicu-
ous and covers the most area.
DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM - A state of relative balance between forces
or processe having opposite effects.
ECOLOGY - The study of the interrelationships of organisms with
and within their environment.
ECOSYSTEM - A community and its (living and nonliving) environment
considered collectively; the fundamental unit in ecology.
May be quite small, as the ecosystem of one-celled plants,
in a drop of water, or indefinitely large, as in the grass-
land ecosystem.
ECOSYSTEM ANALYSIS Examination of structure, function and control
mechanisms present and operating in an ecosystem.
EFFICIENCY (ECOLOGICAL) Defined exchange of energy and /or
nutrients between trophic (q.v.) levels; us. the ratio between
production (q.v.) of one level and that of a lower level in
the same food chain (q.v.).
ENERGY (ECOLOGY) Most commonly, that portion of the visible
solar radiation (light) captured by plants and ultimately
used for food by the animals in an ecosystem.
ENERGY BUDGET A quantitative account sheet of inputs, transforma
tions, and outputs of energy in an ecosystem. May apply to
the long-wave radiation (heat) of an organism or a lake, or
to the food taken in and subsequently reduced to heat by an
individual or a population.
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ENERGY CYCLING - (Although this term is sometimes used to imply
that the ecological energy in an ecosystem is reused, the
term is incorrect.) Use instead, energy flow. (see below)
ENERGY FLOW - The one-way passage of energy (largely chemical)
through the system, entering via photosynthesis, being
exchanged through feeding interactions, and at each stage,
being reduced to heat.
ENERGY TRANSFER PROCESS - Any process which transfers energy from
one component in an ecosystem to another. Photosynthesis,
feeding, bacterial break-down are examples.
ENVIRONMENT The sum total or the resultant of all the external
conditions which act upon an organism.
ENVIRONMENTAL AMENITIES - Attractive or esthetically pleasing
environments or portions of environments.
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS Perturbations likely to cause observable
changes in ecosystems; usually departures from normal or
optimum.
ENVIRONMENTALIST One concerned about the environment.
ESTUARINE Of/ the mouth region of a river that is affected by
tides.
EXCRETION Elimination of waste material from the body of an
organism.
FAUNA The animals of a given region taken collectively; as in
the taxonomic sense, the species, or kinds, of animals in
a region.
FEEDBACK Principle of information returning to sender or to
input channel, thus affecting output.
FLORA Plants; organisms of the plant kingdom; specifically, the
plants growing in a geographic area, as the Flora of Illinois
FLORA (MICRO) Usually bacteria or fungi.
FOOD CHAIN Animals linked together by food and all dependent,
in the long run, on plants.
GREENBELT A plot of vegetated land separating or surrounding
areas of intensive residential or industrial use and devoted
to recreation or park uses.
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GRADIENT - A more or less continuous change of some property in
space. Gradients of environmental properties are ordinarily
reflected in gradients of biota.
HABITAT The environment, us. the natural environment in which
a population of plants or animals occurs.
HERBACEOUS Of/ any plant lacking woody tissue in which the
leaves and stem fall to ground level during freezing or dry-
ing weather.
HOMEOSTASIS - The inherent stability or self-regulation of a
biological system; the ability of such a system to resist
external changes.
JARGON - The other fellow's everyday vocabulary.
LAKE - A large body of water contained in a depression of the
earth's surface and supplied from drainage of a larger area.
Locally may be called a pond.
LAKE TURNOVER The complete top-to-bottom circulation of water
in a lake which occurs when the density of the surface water
is the same or slightly greater than that at the lake bottom;
most temperate zone lakes circulate in Spring and again in
Fall.
LENTIC Of/ still or slowly flowing water situations (e.g., lakes,
ponds, swamps).
LIFE CYCLE or LIFE HISTORY The series of changes or stages
undergone by an organism from fertilization, birth or hatch-
ing to reproduction of the next generation.
LIMITING FACTOR - An environmental factor (or factors) which limits
the distribution and/or abundance of an organism or its
population, i.e., the factor which is closest to the physio-
logical limits of tolerance of that organism.
LIMNOLOGY - The study of the biological, chemical, and physical
features of inland waters.
MARSH - A tract of low-lying soft, wet land, commonly covered
(sometimes seasonally) entirely or partially with water; a
swamp dominated by grasses or grass-like vegetation.
MICROCLIMATE - Conditions of moisture, temperature, etc., as
influenced by the topography, vegetation, and the like. See,
climate.
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NATURAL AREA An area in which natural processes predominate,
fluctuations in numbers of organisms are allowed free play
and human intervention is minimal.
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT The complex of atmospheric, geological and
biological characteristics found in an area in the absence
of artifacts or influences of a well developed technological,
human culture; an environment in which human impact is not
controlling, or significantly greater than that of other
animals.
NICHE - The range of sets of environmental conditions which an
organism's behavioral morphological and physiological adapta-
tions enable it to occupy; the role an organism plays in the
functioning of a natural system, in contrast to habitat.
NITRIFICATION A step in the nitrogen cycle technically involving
oxidation of nitrogen, e.g. NH^ from ammonia to nitrates
(N03).
NUTRIENTS Chemical elements essential to life. Macronutrients
are those of major importance required in relatively large
quantities (C, H, 0, N, S, and P); micronutrients are also
important but required in smaller quantities (Fe, Mo).
OVERTURN The complete circulation or mixing of the upper and
lower waters of a lake when the temperatures (and densities)
are similar.
PLANKTON Small organisms (animals, plants or microbes) passively
floating in water; macroplankton are relatively large (1.0 mm
to 1.0 cm); mesoplankton of intermediate size; microplankton
are small.
PLANKTON MERO Organisms with temporary plankton phases in their
life cycle, e.g., oyster and crab larvae.
POLLUTION An undesirable change in atmospheric, land or water
conditions harmfully affecting the material or aesthetic
attributes of the environment.
POPULATION A group of organisms of the sam species.
PRISTINE STATE A state of nature without human effect or with
negligible human effect.
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PRODUCER = PRODUCER ORGANISM An organism which can synthesize
organic material using inorganic materials and an external
energy source (light or chemical). See autotroph; also,
biotic pyramid.
PRODUCTION - The amount of organic material produced by biological
activity in an area or volume.
PRODUCTIVITY - The rate of production of organic matter produced
by biological activity in an area or volume. (e.g.: grams
per square meter per day, or other units of weight or energy
per area or volume and time).
PRODUCTIVITY, GROSS PRIMARY - The rate of synthesis of organic
material produced by photosynthesis (or chemosynthesis),
including that which is used up in respiration by the pro-
ducer organism.
PRODUCTIVITY, NET PRIMARY The rate of accumulation of organic
material in plant tissues. Gross primary productivity less
respiratory utilization by the producer organism.
PRODUCTIVITY, SECONDARY The rate of production of organic
materials by consumer organisms (animals) which eat plants
(which are the primary producers).
REMOTE SENSING - A method for determining the characteristics
of an object, organism or community from afar.
RESILIENCE - The ability of any system, e.g., an ecosystem, to
resist or to recover from stress.
SALINITY WEDGE - The movement of subsurface saline water into
an aquifer, or, in an estuary. Of a body of saline (sea)
water under the fresh water.
SOIL PROFILE - The physical and chemical features of the soil
imagined or seen in vertical section from its surface to
the point at which the characteristics of the parent rock
are not modified by surface weathering or soil processes.
SPECIES COMPOSITION Referring to the kinds and numbers of
species occupying an area.
SPECIES DIVERSITY Refers to the number of species or other kinds
in an area, and, for purposes of quantification, to their
relative abundance as well.
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SPECIES DIVERSITY INDEX Any of several mathematical indices
which express in one term the number of kinds of species
and the relative numbers of each in an area.
STABILITY (ecological) - The tendency of systems, especially
ecosystems, to persist, relatively unchanged, through time;
also persistence of a component of a system; the inverse of
its turnover time.
STANDING CROP The biological mass (biomass) of certain or all
living organisms of an area or volume at some specific time,
i.e., what could be harvested.
SUBCLIMAX A stage in a community's development, i.e., succession
(q.v.) before its final (climax) stage; a community simulat-
ing climax because of its further development being inhibited
by some disturbing factor (e.g., fire, poor soil).
SUBLITTORAL Below the lake or seashore; of/ the area between
the low tide mark and (say) 20 fathoms.
SUCCESSION The replacement of one community by another; the
definition includes the (controversial or hypothetical) pos-
sibility of "retrograde" succession.
SUCCESSION, PLANT The replacement of one kind of plant assemblage
by another through time.
SUCCESSION, PRIMARY Refers to succession which begins on bare,
unmodified substrata.
SUCCESSION, SECONDARY Refers to succession which occurs on
formerly vegetated areas (i.e., having an already developed
soil) after disturbance or clearing.
SYMBIOSIS - The living together of dissimilar organisms, by defini-
tion when the relationship is both mutually beneficial and
essential.
SYSTEMS ECOLOGY That branch of ecology which incorporates the
viewpoints and techniques of systems analysis and engineering
especially those having to do with the simulation of systems
using computers and mathematical models.
SYNERGISM The nonadditive effect of two or more substances or
organisms acting together. Examples include synthesis of
lachrymotors from other hydrocarbons in sunlit smog and
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dependence of termites on intestinal protozoans for diges-
tion of cellulose (wood).
TOLERANCE An organism's capacity to endure or adapt to (usually
temporary) unfavorable environmental factors.
WASTEWATER Water derived from a municipal or industrial waste
treatment plant.
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
REPORT NO.
EPA-600/3-76-072
. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Ecosystem Impacts of Urbanization Assessment
Methodology
5. REPORT DATE
July 1976
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
I. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
7. AUTHOR(S)
David L. Jameson
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
The Institute of Ecology
University Hill
P.O. Box A
Logan, UT 84321
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-01-2642
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Corvallis Environmental Research Laboratory
200 S.W. 35th St.
Corvallis, Oregon 97330
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/ORD
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
methodol ogy is developed to use space-time analysis and ecosystem modeling
to assess the secondary impacts of wastewater treatment facilities (i.e., urbaniza-
tion) on the ecosystem. The existing state of the ecosystem is described with em-
phasis on the dynamic, periodic, trend, and gradient processes. Ecosystem models are
used to project consequences of project alternatives. Incremental and synergistic
effects are indicated along with suggested operational adjustments to minimize ecosys-
tem impacts from the recommended project.
Ecosystem models are described and the literature on impacts is reviewed. A easel
study of urbanization at Lake George, NY, emphasizes the usefulness of the components
of ecosystem models by linking units from several studies with a new model (LAND).
This new model is described and documented. A case study of a new town (Woodlands,
TX) indicates the changes in current methodologies which are required to adopt space-
time analysis and ecosystem modeling to the assessment of the effects of urbanization
on the ecosystem.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COS AT I Field/Group
Wastewater Treatment
Urbanization
Environmental Impact Statements
Space-Time Analysis
Ecosystems
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
249
Release to public
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
U.S. GOVERNMENT PR'NTING OFFICE. I976—696-G27 !'io SEGIOM 10
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