TRIANGLE
        INSTITUTE
                                RTI/1864/18-03F
           NATIONAL SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLD PESTICIDE USAGE PILOT STUDY:
                        EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND OVERVIEW
                                      by

                                 David Budescu
                               Martin Rosenzweig
                                Richard Waddell
                          Research Triangle Institute
                       Research Triangle Park, NC  27709
                            Contract No. 68-01-5848
                                    Task 18
                           Task Manager:
                        Project Officer:
John Smith
Linda Deluise
                         Design and Development Branch
                         Exposure Evaluation Division
                   Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances
                        Environmental Protection Agency
                             Washington, DC  20460
.•ARCH  TRIANGLE  PARK,  NORTH  CAROLINA  27709

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                     RTI/1864/18-03F
NATIONAL SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLD PESTICIDE USAGE PILOT STUDY:
             EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND OVERVIEW
                           by

                      David Budescu
                    Martin Rosenzweig
                     Richard Waddell
               Research Triangle Institute
            Research Triangle Park, NC  27709
                 Contract No. 68-01-5848
                         Task 18
                Task Manager:  John Smith
             Project Officer:  Linda Deluise
              Design and Development Branch
              Exposure Evaluation Division
        Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances
             Environmental Protection Agency
                  Washington, DC  20460

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                          Disclaimer

This document has been reviewed and approved for publication
by the Office of Testing and Evaluation, Office of Pesticides
and Toxic Substances, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect
the views and policies of the Environmental Protection Agency,
nor does the mention of trade names or commercial products
constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

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                            Table of Contents


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

I.   BACKGROUND	    1

II.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS	    1

PROJECT OVERVIEW

1.   BACKGROUND	    4

     1.1  Purpose of the National Household Pesticide Usage
          Survey (NHPUS)	    4
     1.2  Purpose of the Pilot Study of the NHPUS	    5

2.   DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS	    6

     2.1  Data Collection Activities	    6
     2.2  Data Analysis	   10

3.   FINDINGS	   14

     3.1  Effectiveness of the Sample Design	   14
     3.2  Fieldwork	   14
     3.3  Data Analysis	   16
     3.4  Recommendations	   19

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        NATIONAL SURVEY OF HOUSEHOLD PESTICIDE USAGE PILOT STUDY:

                            EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


I.   BACKGROUND

     The  Pilot Study  for  the  National  Survey of  Household  Pesticide
Usage  (NHPUS)  is  in essence a FEASIBILITY STUDY, however the utility of
the data is only limited by the variability due to small samples.

          PURPOSE:

               To ascertain if quantitative and statistically valid data
               on home pesticide use can be collected.

          OBJECTIVES:

               To evaluate the survey instrument,

               To develop  and  evaluate  training and training materials,

               To determine response rates,

               To develop cost information,

               To   generate  statistical   design  information  for  the
               National Survey.

               To develop  and  demonstrate basic analytical methodology.

II.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

          PURPOSE:

               To  collect data  required  to  decide  if  the NHPUS  is  a
               feasible  project,  and   if so,  to  design  the  National
               Survey.
          SAMPLE:
               Three States — California, Michigan, and Louisiana, each
               an  independent  survey  in itself  covering  a  range  of
               pesticide usage.

               States were  divided  into relatively homogenous pesticide
               use  regions  (coastal  areas,  mountain,  lowlands,  etc.).

               Grouping  by  size  of  locality  was  also a  factor  since
               needs for major urban areas were expected to be different
               from small towns.

               Target sample  size by State was  240 households.  Number
               of  completed  interviews  by  State:   California -  182,
               Michigan - 179, and Louisiana - 163  (524 total).

                                 -1-

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     Limited disaggregation of  data  is possible; a measure of
     the  effect  of sample  size is  shown  by number  of  empty
     cells in the analysis tables.

FIELD WORK:

     Data collection period was October 1980.

     Response rate:  80.5%.

     Average cost per interview:  $23.12.  Eighteen (18)  field
     interviewers and four (4) field supervisors used.

PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED:

     Language  problems  with  potential respondents who  spoke
     English poorly  or  not at all; inadequacies with portions
     of the  training  materials; interviewer attrition; incle-
     ment weather; and heavy agricultural activity discouraging
     participation.

     The  following  data  items  were  difficult to  collect:
     quantity of  pesticides used (41% nonresponse), household
     income  level (21%  nonresponse),  and  data on recall of
     usage.

     Information  on  professional exterminator  services  was  ,
     surprisingly sparse.

ANALYSIS:

     Standard analysis procedures were generally used.  However,
     some  analyses  required use of  EPA  data tapes including:
     (1) the Product Label File,* and (2)  the Inverted Chemical-
     Registration Number File,  which proved extremely useful..

     Software was  developed to  integrate these files  into the
     analysis.

     Only  the  most  basic  analysis  was  undertaken  for  this
     study.

FINDINGS:

     The  Sample  Design:   A  qualitative  review of  available
     information  is   reassuring,  producing  no  indication of
     problems.    Detailed analyses  of sample  design  will be
     performed under Task 20.

     Fieldwork:   An  extensive   training  guide  enhanced  the
     training  program  by  insuring  standard  training  across
     sessions/trainers.     Problems   with   training   program/
     materials  were identified and rectified.
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     Ability tp_ collect desired data:  Contrary to expectation,
     respondents were reluctant to take interviewers to storage
     sites  which raises  the possibility  of  under-reporting.
     Respondents  felt   (probably   optimistically)   that  six
     months was the maximum recall period.

     Data  analysis:   Demographic characteristics are  easy to
     collect, with the exception of income.  Questions relating
     to frequency of use, safety precautions taken,  and equip-
     ment  used were  no  problem.   Quantity data is not collec-
     tible using current methodology.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

     Questionnaire:  Several question wording and reformatting
     changes are  suggested.  A  major change  is  suggested in
     inventory methodology,  and consideration of use  of tags
     to identify containers inventoried by round (particularly
     aerosols)  and  use of  some  form  of weighing machine are
     suggested for obtaining quantity data.

     Training and Fieldwork:  Sessions should be longer.  More
     specialized  and  consistent pesticide  training  needed.
     Field  supervisors  should be trained  consistently and at
     one  session.   The number of allowed  callbacks  should be
     increased, possibly to eight.

     Sample  Design:    The   sample  design  is   being  developed
     under Task 20.

     Data Analysis:  The size of the data file suggests substan-
     tial efficiency can be achieved by appropriately dividing
     them  (subsetting)  into more manageable  lengths.   Tables
     seem to contain too many categories and should  be reduced
     in dimension.   Consideration should be given in planning
     for additional analysis, e.g.,  comparisons between domains,
     regressions, and  so on.  Reviewers should  be  encouraged
     to indicate their analytic requirements.
                       -3-

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                            PROJECT OVERVIEW


1.    BACKGROUND

1.1  Purpose of the National Household Pesticide Usage Survey(NHPUS)

     *TO PROVIDE  STATISTICALLY VALID QUANTITATIVE PESTICIDE  USAGE DATA

     *TO DEVELOP DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ON USER HOUSEHOLDS

     *TO COLLECT SPECIFIC PESTICIDE  BY TARGET PEST BY SITE  BY QUANTITY
      BY FREQUENCY OF USE DATA

     *TO FIND  USER INFORMATION SOURCES, SAFETY  PRECAUTIONS,  METHODS  OF
      USE AND DISPOSAL

     The overall  objectives  of this survey is  to  provide  statistically
     valid  quantitative pesticide  usage  data  for  households  in  the
     United States, state-by-state.   This is the first of several nation-
     wide surveys  to be funded  by EPA to  provide  current quantitative
     pesticide usage data on urban/non-farm use sites.   This is  part of
     a general  initiative by EPA to provide  current  quantitative  usage
     data on all  such  sites over a  three year period  on  a  recurring
     basis.   We plan to repeat these surveys  approximately  every  three
     years in order  to  maintain  relatively current data  on the usage of
     pesticides  on  urban/non-farm  sites  in  the  United  States.  This
     initiative is designed  to  complement  an initiative  by USDA and  the
     state agricultural universities which generate pesticide usage data
     on farm/rural pesticide use sites.

     The Household Pesticide Usage  Survey," as well as  other  surveys
     undertaken under  this  general initiative,  is to provide pesticide
     usage data in the  public domain for all users of such information,
     including  government   agencies  at  the  Federal, State and  local
     levels  as well as the private sector.   Presently quantitative  usage
     data are very limited,  out-of-date and not reliable  for meeting  the
     needs of most users of  such information.

     Within EPA, quantitative usage  data is needed as a  basis for  human
     exposure  and  risk  analyses,  for  environmental  exposure and risk
     analyses,  for analyses of  the  benefits to pesticide users as  an
     input  to  risk/  benefit decisionmaking,  for  program planning  and
     prioritization,  for  general monitoring  activities,  for integrated
     pest management education and training programs,  for basic research,
     and  for  planning  of  enforcement  activities.   Many governmental
     units at the Federal,  State and local levels from time-to-time have
     data needs in one or more of these areas.  Private  industry and  the
     general public  also  need such  data to participate in  or  react  to
     various regulatory educational and related activities  by government
     agencies and universities.

     The major areas upon which data are to be obtained  in the Household
     Usage  Survey are  demographic  information on  the  household,  the
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     specific pesticide/site/target pest/quantity/frequency data  on the
     pesticides actually used, user  information sources,  safety precau-
     tions,  application  technology,  container  disposal,   and  unused
     chemical disposal.  Information is needed on each of  these areas by
     one or more of the data user groups. I./

1.2  Purpose of the Pilot Study of the NHPUS

     *TO EVALUATE THE SURVEY INSTRUMENT

     -TO EVALUATE INTERVIEWER TRAINING AND FIELD MANUAL

     *TO DETERMINE RESPONSE RATE

     *TO DEVELOP INFORMATION ON COSTS AND LENGTH OF INTERVIEW

     *TO PROVIDE INFORMATION NEEDED FOR DESIGNING THE NHPUS.

     The quality  of the  data  collected from the  field in  the National
     Survey  depends  largely on  the  quality  of  the instrument  and the
     effectiveness of the procedures used to administer it.   In addition
     to operationally  testing  the  instrument to be used in the National
     Survey, an examination  of the feasibility of  the  entire  system of
     data  collection procedures  should be made.  A pretest of the data
     collection methods and procedures as proposed in the  Pilot Study is
     the only way the problems of unreliability or invalidity of measure-
     ment can be surfaced prior to the collection of data  upon which the
     National Study  conclusions  will be drawn.   Additionally,  the Pilot
     Study will provide  information  needed to identify any deficiencies
     in the  interviewer  training program which could affect the quality
     of the data being collected.

1.2.2  Objectives
       —	                                                       f

     The  objectives of  the  Pilot  Study are  to  evaluate  interviewer
     training and  to pretest methods and  data  collection procedures in
     preparation for the  proposed  National Survey.  Specific objectives
     of the Pilot Study are:

     (a)  To evaluate  the survey instrument.  The  effectiveness  of the
          instrument is  dependent upon  the  content and the wording of
          the  questions.   The  Pilot  Study will  provide  information
          needed to refine the instrument so that it will  be as effective
          as possible  when it  is  administered in  the  National Survey.

     (b)  To evaluate  the  interviewer  training  program  and  the field
          manual.    Since some  of the  interviewers to be  used  in the
          National Survey may have little or no interviewing experience,
          it is essential to have both an effective training program and
          an effective field  manual.   The  identification of problems
          encountered during data  collection in the pilot study will be
          invaluable in providing information that can be  used to improve
          the training program and the field manual.
^/Memorandum  dated March  27,   1980  from  the  Chief,  Economic  Analysis
Branch, BFSD, OPTS (TS-768).
                                 -5-

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     (c)  To gain  information  on response rates.  The  refusal  and non-
          contact rates in the Pilot Study will be useful for determining
          the  need  for  evening,  weekend  and  call-back  interviewing.
          Nonresponses in  a  survey will necessarily cause  some  bias  in
          the survey estimates.  The level of the bias is dependent upon
          the number  of  nonrespondents  and the similarities between the
          pesticide use practices of the  respondents and the nonrespon-
          dents.  Obviously, if  nonrespondents have different pesticide
          use practices  than  those who  respond, estimates computed from
          the collected data will be biased.  Because there is no way to
          determine  the  similarities between  the two  groups,  the most
          effective way  to minimize  the bias is to obtain high response
          rates.   Obtaining  high  response  rates  generally  involves
          estensive  interviewing.   The  Pilot  Study  response  rates will
          be essential  for  determining  the  extent to  which follow-up
          procedures are needed.

     (d)  To provide  information on time and  costs  associated  with the
          collection  and processing of data.   The administration times
          of the interviews  in the Pilot Study  will be used to compute
          an estimate  of the  average time required to  conduct  a single
          interview.  Also, total interviewer time including travel time
          between  interviews   can  be evaluated.   These  time estimates
          will aid in the establishment of a time frame for the National
          Survey.   Additionally,  the Pilot  Study will  provide  data  on
          the  costs associated  with data collection,  data processing,
          and data analysis.

     (e)  To provide  estimates of the  variability associated with each
          stage  of  sampling.   These  variance  estimates  can  be  used  to
          evaluate the effectiveness of the sample design and to provide
          estimates  of sample sizes  at each  stage of  sampling  for the
          National Survey.2/

2.   DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

2.1  Data Collection Activities

2.1.1  Description of the sample design

     Survey  samples  employ lists  called  sample  frames.   These  are the
means  of identifying  the members  of  the  population of  interest,  the
target population.   The sample is selected by drawing at random from the
list.   Conceptually,  complete and  current lists  provide  the basis for
scientific sampling.  It is the selection of sample members according to
chance which provides the probability basis for general statements about
the  population  from  the  sample data  (called  statistical inference).
Unfortunately,   lists   of  all  the  people  living  in  localities  of  the
United  States do not exist.   Consequently, we divide the land area into
small  segments  and  select  some  of them  at  random.   This is  called
area sampling.
2/National  Household  Pesticide Usage  Survey  OMB Submission  Package.
May 20,  1980.    SRDC,  Research Triangle  Institute,  Research  Triangle
Park, NC 27709.

                                 -6-

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     It  is  generally more  convenient  not  to  select  these  segments
directly,  but  to first  select a  larger  area,  perhaps a  State,  then a
county, a part of a county (called a County Census Division), and so on.
Each of  the successively  chosen areas is  called a  stage.   Any sample
with more than one such level is called a multi-stage sample.

     The  larger units  selected at  the  first  stage  units, often  the
county,  are  designated as  of  greater significance,  and are called the
primary sampling unit (PSU).  Smaller areas within the PSU may be desig-
nated  the  secondary  sampling unit (SSU), and so  forth.   These sampling
units  possess  two  important characteristics, (i)  they exhaust  the land
area of  the  stage  in which they lie (e.g., the totality of county lands
exhaust all  the  land in the State where they lie), and (ii) they do not
overlap.

     Another  important distinction  is made:   If several  counties  are
selected  from  a State,  they are  called  a stage  of  sampling,  i.e.,  we
have sampled from  among  the counties.   If all the counties are selected
from a State,  the  counties  are called strata.   One  has  stratified the
sample within  the  State  by taking from every county.  This can occur at
any level, or  several levels.   If we  stratify  by State,  we must sample
from every State.   If we take only some States, then States are a stage
of sampling.   In practice,  the construction of strata may become rather
complex, however the distinction made here does not fail.

     The Pilot  Study employed  a two-stage area sample.  The first stage
was stratified  by  size of locality and topography, i.e.,  each State was
partitioned  into  regions  hopefully,   homogeneous  in  pesticide  use.
Larger,  medium  and  small localities  were grouped  (stratified)  within
each  topograhic region.   The  first stage  units  (the primary  sampling
units) are the  Minor Civil Divisions (MCD's) or County Census Divisions
in this  study.   The  second stage  of sampling  consisted  of units called
block  groups  (which  are  groups of city blocks) or enumeration districts
(small areas in  localities not organized into city blocks).  The selected
households were taken  from  the block  groups or  enumeration districts
which fell in the sample.

2.1.2  Fieldwork

     Data  collection  took  place between October 1 and 31,  1980 in three
States--California, Michigan, and Louisiana.  Eighteen (18) field inter-
viewers were used  during data  collection, supervised by four RTI field
supervisors.    Four  training  sessions, conducted  jointly  by  the field
supervisors and  two survey specialists, were held during the latter part
of September.   These sessions  lasted  three days  and covered all areas
necessary  for  proper completion of the survey  questionnaires and other
field  forms.   Representatives  from  EPA  were  in   attendance  at  all
sessions.

     Lead letters were mailed to sample households before data collection
began.  These letters informed the residents of the nature of the survey,
the need  for their cooperation, and told them that an interviewer would
be  calling  at  their  homes  in  order  to  conduct the interview.   Most
interviewers  reported  that  when  the  respondent had  read  the  letter
                                 -7-

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before the visit, his/her attitude toward participating in the study was
very positive.  A similar letter was also sent to various public officials
in  the  sample areas.   In addition, news  releases  were  distributed  to
local radio  stations and  newspapers  providing  coverage  for  the areas.

     More field problems were encountered in Louisiana than in the other
Pilot Study   States.   Unforeseen problems  with the  training materials
were  detected during the Louisiana training, which  fortunately was the
first session scheduled.   Resolution of these problems  was  made before
the  remaining  sessions  were  begun.    There  were .interviewer-related
problems  in  Louisiana,  also.  Several persons never  worked  after being
trained,  therefore,  other  interviewers  had to  work larger  case loads
than  anticipated,  which to some extent, increased  field costs.  Sample
dispersion and travel  conditions in Louisiana posed a problem for call-
backs on  nonrespondents  as well as increased travel costs considerably.
The  primary  problem encountered  in California  was language  barrier,
especially  in the southern part of  the State  where  7% of  the sample
households were  non-English speaking.   Weather and apple harvest season
posed the most problems in Michigan.  A freak  snow storm hindered data
collection for  a  short  period and many potential  respondents  were too
busy with apple harvest to participate.

     It  should be  noted  similar  field problems  are not uncommon for
household surveys and a relatively successful response rate of 80.5% was
achieved.  This  rate is quite good considering that only four callbacks
were  allowed for  nonrespondents.   It also is a positive reflection on
the quality  of training,  efficiency and experience of  the  field staff,
and proper project planning.  Response rates by State were:   California —
82.4%, Michigan  -- 82.9%, and Louisiana -- 76.2%.  The average cost per
interview was  $23.12;  524 questionnaires were completed from 727 sample
housing units.

2.1.3  Survey Questionnaire Discussion

     Initially,  plans  for  questionnaire   development   called   for  the
design  of between two  and four instruments  to  be tested in the Pilot
Study.  Each  questionnaire  alternative  was to embody a different metho-
dological  design  and  each  design  option  was   to  test  various  recall
periods.

     The  major  areas  of  data  which all  instruments were  designed  to
collect were:  demographic information on the household, specific pesti-
cide/site/ target pest/quantity/frequency data on pesticides  used during
the recall period, user information sources, safety precautions, applica-
tion  technology,  container  disposal,   unused   chemical  disposal,  and
target pest/site/frequency/ cost data on pesticides applied by commerical
pest control operators.  For purposes of this study, the term "pesticide"
included  all  categories  of  pesticides  except plant  growth  regulators,
antitranspirants,  and  disinfectants  without EPA  registration  numbers.

     A series of  three  pretests were conducted  using  the various ques-
tionnaire designs until a final questionnaire was developed and submitted
to OMB for review/approval.  The primary data collection instrument used
during the Pilot Study was known as the Core Questionnaire and contained
five sections:

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          the Household Section  — collected basic  demographic  data  on
          household members,  and obtained  information  on the  kinds  of
          buildings/outdoor  areas  maintained  on the premises,  primary
          household ethnicity, and  classification of type of residence.
          An introduction  to  the inventory process closed this section.

          the Usage Inventory Section -- contained 17 questions concern-
          ing all  pesticides used  during  the recall period,  which for
          the Pilot Study  was June 1 - September 30, 1980.  Only pesti-
          cides  for  which  containers  were  still  on the  premises  were
          listed in this  section.   A complicated and extremely detailed
          question/ matrix concerning  indoor/outdoor usage,  number  of
          applications, and site/pest appeared in this section.

          the   Usage  Inventory Section (Pesticides  Not  on Premises)
          this  section was  almost  identical  to the preceding  section
          with  the exception  of several questions  concerning disposal
          methods for pesticides/containers.

          the Professional Exterminator Section — collected information
          on  the use  of  professional  exterminators for  pest control,
          either under contract or by other means.

          the Recall  and  Income  Section  --  the  final section  asked the
          respondent how  long he/she would be able to reasonably recall
          usage  information.   In  addition, household  income  data  and
          telephone number were  obtained  and  information on respondent
          attitudes was requested from the interviewer.

     Two  secondary data   collection instruments  were   used:    (1)  the
Continuation  Section,  which was  basically  a  subset  of  the  Core
Questionnaire  (used  to record data on more than nine  pesticides  used
during  the  recall period),  and  (2) the Nonusage  Inventory  Form,  which
was used  to record basic  data on pesticides found  on  the premises  but
not used during the recall period.

     Specific recommendations  for  changes  to the survey instruments are
discussed in Section  3.4  of this overview.  A general evaluation of the
instruments follows.

2.1.4  Questionnaire Evaluation

     Generally speaking, the Core Questionnaire was effective in gather-
ing the required  data.   Several  problem areas have  been identified and
plans for correcting these problems will be incorporated in the revisions
in preparation for the National Survey.  Each section of the questionnaire
will be covered.

     (a)  Household Section:   Basically,  there  were no  major problems
          encountered in this section.

     (b)  Usage Inventory Section:   Many of  the questions  relating  to
          pesticide storage and reading of instructions  elicited positive
          data.  However,  some problem  areas  are  obvious,  such as the
                                 -9-

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          quantity questions.  Forty-one percent of the completed ques-
          tionnaires  had  missing  values  for  these  questions.   This
          largely reflects the frequency of use for aerosols since these
          questions were  skipped for  such products.  Also,  there  is a
          problem with reporting by standard units of weight.

          Generally, most of the other questions in this section elicited
          useful  data  and  caused  few  field  problems  or  problems  in
          analyses.  Using the Pilot data, it will be possible to elimi-
          nate some response options,  add others, and streamline and/or
          reword some questions in order to better define the objectives.

     (c)  Usage Inventory Section (Pesticide Not on the Premises):  This
          section proved  to be  of  little  use during the  Pilot Study.
          Almost 63% of the respondents reported no pesticides used, and
          28% reported only one used.  For those reporting usage informa-
          tion, the quality of the data is questionable because complete
          names were not given, registration numbers cannot be obtained,
          and other information appears to be quite sketchy.

     (d)  Professional Exterminator Section:   The section  presented  no
          major field problems.  The reported data are of some interest,
          however.   Eighty-two  percent  of  the  respondents  reported
          having no professional exterminator contract and 94% said that
          no services were used during the recall period.

     (e)  Recall and Income Section:   The  most problematic  question  in
          this section  was the income question.   Twenty-one percent  of
          the  respondents  either  refused to  answer  the  question  or
          reported  "Don't  Know."  The positioning of the  question may
          have created  the problem;  however,  questions of  a similarly
          sensitive nature frequently have lower response rates.  Ninety
          percent of  the  respondents  provided a  telephone  number upon
          request.

     The  inventory  methodology  has been  an  area  of concern  for  some
time.  There  is  some  reason to believe  that under-reporting may result
because  of  two principal  factors:   (1)   respondents  quickly learn that
the  more pesticides identified,  the longer the  interview,  and (2) the
response cards fail to educate respondents adequately.  Possible solutions
to  the  under-reporting  may be  the use  of a  screening questionnaire,
better response cards, and illustrations  of common pesticide containers.
Other  recommendations  resulting  from  the Pilot  Study  include reducing
the  size  of  the  document,  including the Nonusage Inventory Form as part
of the Core Questionnaire, eliminate the Continuation Section and simply
use  additional questionnaires  as  needed, and improve instruments within
documents.

2.2  Data Analysis

2.2.1  EPA data files

     Certain  features  of  the analysis plan require  information that  is
collected and maintained  by EPA.   Copies of two EPA tapes were obtained
by RTI:

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     (1)  The Product  Lable  File,  which relates each pesticide (identi-
          fied  by a unique EPA Registration Number)  with a formulation
          code,  a list of  active  ingredients, and a list of pesticide
          classification codes.

     (2)  The Inverted Chemical-Registration  Number File, which relates
          each  active  ingredient  to its chemical (not commercial) name,
          and a list of pesticides (identified by  their  EPA Reg. Nos.)
          containing the active ingredient.

For the  purpose of future surveys, like the National Study, it would be
useful to obtain  copies of two additional tapes:

     (3)  A  file relating EPA Registration numbers to commercial names
          of pesticides, and

     (4)  A  file  relating  State  Registration Numbers to  EPA numbers.

2.2.2  Demographic Characteristics

     The  reciprocal of the  selection probability  of any given unit in
the sample  is  commonly called the  sampling weight  of the element.  The
weight can  be  regarded as an inflation or expansion  factor by which the
aggregate of the sample observations estimate the entire target popula-
tion.   Sampling weights were calculated,  and  adjusted for nonresponse,
for all  the observations  in the  sample.   Since  each weight represents
the number of households in the State represented by  a given observation
in the sample,  all the  responses from a questionnaire were multiplied by
the appropriate weight in order to obtain estimates  for the State.  All
reported results  are based on these "weighted" responses.

     The first  part of  the analysis consists of a set of tables providing
statistics describing  the population sampled in each  State.  The results
'can be compared  with  the Census  data  for the  States to  evaluate the
weighted  sample  with  respect to  certain  demographic characteristics.

     To complement the  control data, similar tables were generated based
on the data from the   1970  U.S.  Census.   Note,  however,  that the 1980
Census data  when published will be more appropriate  for comparison than
the 1970 Census data.

     A common pitfall  for such comparisons is that some  will take them
as proof or disproof of whether or not a sample is "valid" or "represen-
tative."   The   matching or  mismatching  with  control data  on selected
factors  should  not be  interpreted  as proof one way  or the  other as to
how "good" the  sample  is for estimating the factors under study.

     The  demographic  tables  and  the Census  data  can be found  in the
Appendix,  (Tables 1-4) and a discussion of the  results  can be found in
the Technical Report (Section 3.3).
                                 -11-

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2.2.3  Analysis of type of pesticide

     The EPA Pesticide Product File classifies each product according to
its potential use.  Products are not uniquely assigned to one category--
60% of  them  are  classified in more than one way.   For this purpose,  EPA
uses 40 different  categories.   For the purpose of  the  present analysis
these categories were combined into four general classes:  insecticides,
herbicides,  fungicides and  others.   Additional types of pesticides were
eliminated  from  the  analysis because  few,  if any, products in  this
category were reported.

     The use of  different types of pesticides was analyzed with respect
to different characteristics of the household (type of residence,  income
of  family,   frequency  of pesticide  use),  the way  the pesticides  are
stored, the  source  which recommended purchase of the pesticide and the
site of application and type of pest controlled.

     The results  of this  analysis  are presented in tables  5-10  in the
Appendix,  and  a  discussion  of the  estimates  obtained  can  be found in
Section 3.6 of the Technical Report.

2.2.4  Analysis by active ingredient

     The EPA Product File links each pesticide with a list of its  active
ingredients.  The number  of active ingredients listed for the different
products varies  from  one to  18.   For the  pesticides  reported  in  the
present study, a  total of 161 different active ingredients were identi-
fied.   Of  those,  107  were  reported in California,  84  in  Louisiana  and
112 in Michigan.   The majority of these ingredients was  found in a small
fraction of  the  pesticides  listed  in the State.  Display  1 presents a
list of the  ten  most prevalent active  ingredients.  For the purpose of
the Pilot Study only these ten ingredients were analyzed.
          Display 1.  Active Ingredients Selected for Analysis
     Active ingredient                                 EPA number
Ethanol                                                   1501
d-trans-Allethrin                                         4003
o-Isopropoxyphenyl methylcarbamate                       47802
Carbaryl                                                 56801
N-Octyl bicycloheptene dicarboximide                     57001
Petrolum distilate, oils, solvent, or hydrocarbons       63503
Piperonyl butoxide                                       67501
Pyrethrins                                               69001
2,2-Dichlorovinyl dimethyl phosphate                     84001
Resmethrin                                               97801
                                 -12-

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     The use  of each  of  the ten  active ingredients was  analyzed with
respect  to  some  of  the household  characteristics (type  of  residence,
family income, household size),  and some of the principal user characte-
ristics  (sex,  age).   Also,  the  frequency  of use  of any  given  active
ingredient was  analyzed by its  storage  site,  source  of recommendation,
formulation,  equipment  used  in  application,  safety precautions taken at
use,  reading  and understanding of  the  instructions  on the  lable,  and
purpose of use (preventive measure or existing problem).

     The results  of  the analysis  can be  found  in  tables A, D, and E in
the Appendix  and a  discussion  of their interpretation is  included in
Section 3.7 of the Technical Report.

2.2.5  Quantity data analysis

     The EPA  file  lists the percentage of weight each active ingredient
constitutes  of  the  pesticide.   Estimates  of  the  quantity of a  given
active ingredient used were  obtained from the  total  quantity used in a
given household (as well as the total quantity used indoors and outdoors)
multiplied by this fraction.

     Several  serious  problems  were  encountered  in  this   stage  of the
analysis.  First,  a  considerable number of  households did  not  report
valid  quantities.   Several  factors  could  have  caused  this  fact--
uncertainty  regarding  the date of  use,  inability  to estimate quantity
used,  or  report of  quantity  in  nonstandard  units  (e.g.,  squirts).
Second, the units of measurements varied from one pesticide to another—
some  were  reported  as  weights  (ounces, pounds),  and others  as volumes
(fluid ounces,  pints,  quarts,  tablespoons,  cups).   Display 2 represents
the number of pesticides for which valid usage quantities were reported.
Considering the  fact that these values  are aggregated  across  the three
States, it appeared that for only one of the
       Display 2.  Number of Respondents Reporting Valid Quantities
Active
Ingredient
1501
4003
47802
56801
57001
63503
67501
69001
84001
97801
Totals:

All
reports
82
78
169
92
70 .
324
122
95
116
84
1232

"Good"
quantities
21
5
11
78
13
46
22
24
7
0
227
-13-
"Dry"
only
9
4
10
61
10
25
16
17
4
0
156

"Fluid"
only
12
1
1
17
3
21
6
7
3
0
71


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ten  active  ingredients  (56801)  was the  number of pesticides  reported
large enough to justify an estimate at the State level.

     In estimating quantity used, several assumptions were made:

     (1)  For all  fluid  quantities,  it was assumed that  all  the pesti-
          cides  have  the  same  density  (volume/weight  ratio) and  that
          this density is one.  It is however recognized that pesticides
          vary in their densities.

     (2)  It was assumed  that whenever quantities used  were reported in
          non-technical  units  (e.g.,  tablespoons,  cups,  etc.),  these
          values can be converted to ounces of fluid ounces according to
          the regular  conventions.   However, we  realize  that "a table-
          spoon of pesticide  x"  may not always correspond  to 0.5 fluid
          ounces of the substance.

     (3)  It was  assumed that all quantities reported  reflected use of
          the pesticide  itself.   It should be  mentioned,  however,  that
          many pesticides  are diluted  or dissolved  in water,  or other
          liquids prior to use, and that the ratio of dilution is likely
          to vary  from  one  product  to  another  and from one  user to
          another.

     Tables  B  and  C  in  the  Appendix present  the average  quantity of
Carbaryl   (56801)   used,   as   reported  in  ounces   and   fluid   ounces
respectively.

3.   FINDINGS

3.1  Effectiveness of the Sample Design

     This  analysis will  be  undertaken  in Task  20,  however  since  the
multi-stage  area  sample  involving  stratification is a  standard design
employed many times before,  its  characteristics are well known.   Conse-
quently, no problems or  great inefficiencies are expected.  As informa-
tion on various costs and  the  variability  occurring at  each stage of
sampling is developed,  greater effectiveness can be achieved.

     A  qualitative  review of  the data suggests  that stratification to
obtain  homogeneous pesticide-use  regions  is  effective in reducing vari-
ability.  Stratification by size of locality also  is important  in  both
increasing precision and improving coverage.

3.2  Fieldwork

3.2.1  Effectiveness of Training

     Generally,   the training program  proved  effective.   With a  few
exceptions,  the  topics  were  covered  in  training  in the  same order as
they were  performed  in  the  field.   One goal of  the  training  was to
provide  consistency in  all  sessions.   To  achieve this,  an extensive
training  guide   was  developed   for  use  by  the  trainers.    This  guide
provided a  script  that  could generally be  read  verbatim.   This method
proved most helpful and was highly praised by the field  staff during the
sessions and at the debriefing after data collection.
                                 -14-

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     In  addition to  the  guide,  several  audio-visual  aids were  used.
These included  a video presentation on general interviewing techniques,
overhead  transparancies,  and  displays   (using  chalk-boards,  tablets,
etc.)-  Despite the emphasis placed on consistency, two areas of training
were not  consistent  from session to session, because  a  detailed script
was not developed.  The first area was the Field Supervisor (FS) training
which was  guided only  by a prepared agenda.  The  major  topics covered
during  the  FS  training  session were a  review of  the Field Supervisor
(FI) training agenda,  a thorough review of the sections  assigned to the
FS  for  FI  training,  a  brief  review of the other sections of the  FI
manual,  and  a  thorough review of the FS  Supplement to the manual.  The
second  area  of  inconsistency was the Pest and  Pesticide  section of the
FI  training.   Because three  different  pesticide  experts  were  used for
this portion of the  training and because  each  used his  own approach to
the same general subject matter, different areas were emphasized and,  in
some cases, different material was introduced.

     Because the National Survey  is  likely  to  require  more than four
training  sessions with  more than  two  principal  trainers,  consistency
will be of paramount importance.  Consequently, planning for the National
Survey  should include changes in the training that will ensure consistency
in the FS and Pest and Pesticide training areas.

     The only other  major changes required for the National Survey (in
addition  to  streamlining many  topics)  are:   1) Increase  the  length  of
the FI  training session to four or five days in order to spend more time
on  mock interviews,  overcoming  objections at the  door,  re-showing the
video on  general interviewing techniques and showing a video on probing
techniques; 2)  Re-schedule  the  edit exercise so its value can be trans-
ferred  to the interview situation; and 3) Develop exercises using actual
pesticide  containers  to teach accurate recording  of  label and  quantity
information.

3.2.2  Ability to Obtain Desired Data

     The consensus during questionnaire development was that respondents
would allow the interviewers to go about the premises to identify pesti-
cides.  It  was   on this  supposition that  the  inventory  methodology was
developed.  However,  the Pilot Study statistics clearly show the respon-
dent's  preference  for bringing the pesticides to  the  interviewer.  The
methodology did  not  work as anticipated and this raises  the possibility
of  under-reporting,  as stated  earlier.   To get some  measure  of under-
reporting,  interviewers  were  instructed  to  probe  at  the  end of  the
interview in order to possibly identify any missed pesticides.  Of the
questionnaires reviewed, 68% reported no missed pesticides, 19% reported
one  missed,  11%  reported  two  missed,   and  1%  reported  three  or more
missed.   Therefore, while under-reporting is still a problem, an improved
questionnaire  methodology  should be  implemented  to include  probing.

     Eighty-five percent  of  the respondents  felt that they could recall
information  for six  months,  but the percent  dropped  significantly for
longer  periods,  leading  one to theorize that a  six month recall period
may  be  the  maximum   usable  without jeopardizing  the quality  of  data.
                                 -15-

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     The  average number  of pesticides  used  was  four,  thus  lessening
concern that during periods of high use (i.e., late spring through early
fall),  reporting  may be  more  difficult.   However,  the data  reflect
problems  for  any recall  period  in reporting quantity  of  use.   As pre-
viously stated,  41%  of the questionnaires had missing  values  for these
questions.   Clearly,  this subject  should  be  carefully reviewed  and
additional  methodologies  developed  and  tested  for  collecting  such
information.

3.2.3  Factors Affecting Response Rate

     The primary factors affecting the response rate are:

     (a)  The inventory methodology.  Respondents  seem  to  learn quickly
          that  the  more  pesticides  they  identify,  the  longer  the
          interview.

     (b)  The number of callbacks.   All  field  staff reported  that  the
          response rate could be increased if more callbacks are allowed.
          Eight is the number suggested.

     (c)  Language barriers.   Non-English  speaking  people  reduced  the
          response   rate,   particularly   in  Louisiana   and   Southern
          California.

     (d)  Lead letters arriving too far in advance of FI visit.     When
          letters  arrive  too  far  in  advance,  their  effectiveness  is
          diminished.  It  might be  better  for FIs  to  mail  the letters
          directly to  the housing  units  closer to  the scheduled field
          visit.

     (e)  Factors beyond normal control.   These include weather problems,
          field staff illness, etc.

3.3  Data Analysis

3.3.1.  Aspects of the analysis that were performed successfully

     (1)  A prerequisite for most of the analysis was the identification
          of  the reported  pesticides  on  the EPA files.   Of  the 1286
          pesticides  reported  on the  premises  215  (16.7%)  had non-EPA
          numbers, and 49  (3.8%) had EPA numbers which were not found on
          the  EPA tape.    These  pesticides  were  not  included  in  the
          analyses performed.   Hard copy lists  of  these  products were
          generated.    The  vast  majority of  pesticides listed  (1022  =
          79.5%) had valid registration  numbers  which were matched with
          EPA files.   This high proportion of "matches" demonstrates the
          high quality of the data collection effort, and the feasibility
          of the proposed method of analysis.

     (2)  Generally  speaking,  it was  demonstrated that all  the tables
          involving  the  demographic  variables,  and the analysis by type
          of  pesticides,   can  be performed  successfully  without major
          difficulties.   From the perspective  of the  present project,
                                 -16-

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          these aspects of  the  analysis  can be considered satisfactory.
          For  the  purpose  of the  national  study,  or  other  State  or
          regional efforts,  some minor modifications (to be described in
          the  next  section) may prove  to be  useful  in  the sense  that
          they are likely to make the results more meaningful and easier
          to interpret.

     (3)  Tables A, D, E,  demonstrate the capability to obtain  valid and
          meaningful estimates of the frequency of use of various active
          ingredients,  and   to   cross-tabulate  these  estimates  by  the
          safety precautions  and equipment used  during application and
          by the characteristics of  the  user and the  household.   We are
          particularly pleased with  the  fact that frequency-of-use  data
          were  obtained  for most pesticides  reported, and by the  fact
          that aggregate estimates  for active ingredients (for  a  variety
          of pesticides) were obtained.

     (4)  Although this  was riot one of  the  purposes of  the  Pilot,  we
          have attempted to  identify the most frequently used pesticides.
          A  list  of  the  18  most  popular  pesticides  can be  found  in
          Display 3.   Note  that  10  pesticides account  for 28.5% of the
          total reported,   and  the   first 18 account  for 37.8%  of  the
          total.

3.3.2  Aspects of the analysis which require slight modifications in the
       methodology

     (1)  A  relatively good correspondence  was  obtained between  the
          demographic  data  and  the  Census  information for the  States.
          The  accuracy of these  comparisons can be further improved  by
          using data   from  the  recently  completed  1980 Census,   and  by
          changing the reporting categories  of these variables  to better
          match the categories used by the Census Bureau.

     (2)  A problem in all  the  tables of the analysis by type  of pesti-
          cide is  the large  number  of cells  with zero  or missing  entries.
          This  fact  indicates   that  there   is  a  tradeoff between  the
          sample size  and   the level of  detail that  can  be achieved  in
          the  analysis.  The number  of categories used  in these tables
          should be reduced.  This  should improve the  quality of  all the
          tables,  and  in particular  of  tables 2 and 8 which contain the
          analysis of  pest  controlled by site of application by  type of
          pesticides - pests  should  be  collapsed into 5 to 7 categories
          and  sites of applications  should  be combined to yield  four to
          five categories.

     (3)  The active ingredient analysis suffers from  a similar problem.
          First the  number  of active  ingredients used  in the analysis
          should be reduced to  two  or four.   The choice should be based
          on the frequency  of report in the present study, and chemical
          considerations,  and  should be made in  close  cooperation  with
          EPA.  Second, the number  of categories used for the  reporting
          variables should be reduced.  As a rule of thumb the  number of
          categories  for  each   variable  should  be  kept under  seven.
                                 -17-

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             Display 3.   The Most Frequently Reported Pesticides

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Reg. No.
4822-111
777-53
4822-10
475-136
1730-36
432-536
4822-84
5813-1
3573-2
4822-38
239-565
239-2346
777-10
777-25
4822-136
239-739
475-156
777-29

Name
Raid Ant & Bug Spray
Lysol Spray
Off
Black Flag Ant & Roach Spray
Pine Sol
Raid House & Garden Spray Formula III
Raid Professional Strength
Clorox
Comet Chlorinol
Raid House & Garden Spray
Ortho Tomato & Vegetable Dust
Ortho Rose & Floral Dust
Lysol Regular
Lysol De-odorizing Cleaner
Raid House & Garden Spray Formula II
Ortho Malathion 50 Insect Spray
Black Flag Insect Spray
Lysol Toilet Bowl Cleaner
Frequency
of report
5.28%
4.99%
3.43%
2.86%
2.45%
2.35%
2.06%
1.96%
1-76%
1-47%
1.27%
1.17%
1.17%
1.17%
1.17%
1.08%
1.08%
1.08%
3.3.3  Aspects of the analysis which require major changes in methodology.

     (1)  EPA plans  to conduct  a  national survey  of  use of  pesticide
          control operators.   Although the focus  of the  present  study
          was  to investigate  nonprofessional  use  of  pesticides  some
          information was  collected about services  provided  by  profes-
          sional operators.  For each  State,  estimates  of the number of
          households  which have  a  contact  with  such operators  were
          attempted,  and   the  average  cost  per  contract found.   The
          majority of households (80%  in  CA,  77% in LA,  and  89% in MI)
          did not report  contracts  and many of those who have could not
          remember,   or  did not  report, their  costs.   Given  the  small
          sample sizes  and the small proportion  of  household reporting
          costs  it  seems  that valid estimates of these  parameters  must
          be obtained  by  other means.   In addition, we have tried  to
          estimate the number  of households  using professional services
          on a non-contract basis by the pest controlled and  the  site of
          application.  Only 51 questionnaires reported  the type  of pest
          controlled.  Of  those  about  two  thirds were  roaches,  and no
          other pest was  reported  by more than 4 households.   The large
          majority of households interviewed  (91% in CA, 92% in  LA, and
          99% in MI)  did  not  use any professional  services.   Since the
          estimated   number  of  households  using  different  types  of
          services (i.e.,   different  combinations  of site of  application
          and pest controlled),  and the estimated costs are  based  on a
          very small number of observation,  it is recommended that this
          information be obtained by other means.

                                 -18-

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     (2)  Most tables were based on the pesticides on premises that have
          been used between June and September 1980.  However, data were
          collected about the number of households storing pesticides on
          the premises but  not  using them, and the number of households
          reporting having  used  pesticides and discarding the container
          prior  to the  date of the  interview.   Only  258  reports  of
          pesticides not  on the  premises were recorded.  Since in these
          instances  EPA  Reg.  Nos.   are  not available,  and information
          about  the type  of the  pesticide,  active  ingredients,  etc.,
          cannot be obtained, these observations are of little relevance.
          Also, we  suspect  that  a  recall problem exists in these cases.
          It is recommended discontinuing this part of the questionnaire,
          unless  the National  Study  includes  periodic  visits  to  the
          sample households.  This  option promises more accurate follow
          up on the use of pesticides.

     (3)  Overall,  556  reports  of  pesticides  were  listed  in the  three
          States  as being  on the  premises,  but  not being  used.   One
          hundred  and sixty-seven   of  them  (30.0%) did  not have  EPA
          registration numbers,  (either  non-EPA  numbers  or  no  number
          reported),  and 326  of the  reported pesticides  (58.6%)  were
          identified  in   the EPA  files.   At  the  present time,  these
          pesticides have not been  used in the analysis in any signifi-
          cant  way.  This  situation  is  likely to  change only if  the
          National Study includes repeated visits to the same households
          at fixed intervals.  However, if this option is not be included
          in the design,  we see no major use for these data and recommend
          dropping this part of the instrument.

     (4)  As shown in Display 2,  RTI has encountered serious problems in
          obtaining data  for  quantity estimation.   When valid responses
          were  obtained  the estimation procedure  required  many  assump-
          tions.   It  is  our  conclusion that the  methodology used will
          fail  to   generate  valid  estimates of  quantities  used and  it
          should be  replaced  by  an alternative one.  One possibility is
          tagging and weighing opaque containers, particularly aerosols,
          on a periodic basis.

3.4  Recommendations

3.4.1  Survey Instrument

     The  following changes  are  suggested  for the .Core  Questionnaire.

Item Number                        Recommended Change

    4               Add reference dates.  Explain "maintain."

    5               Put at end of questionnaire.

    6               Put at end of questionnaire.   Change categories from
                    "Row  house/garden apartment" to "House or apartment
                    with  direct ground level access" and "Apartment house
                    (high rise building or housing unit without direct
                                 -19-

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                 ground level access)" to "Apartment or house without
                 direct ground level access."

 7a              Allow standard abbreviations.

 8               Needs to be added to Nonusage Inventory Form.

 9               Write registration number on same line as EPA, USDA,
                 or State.

10               Since no computer file exists which links brand
                 name to formulation, may be deleted.

11               Put in question form.

12               Change wording to "How did you learn about this
                 product?"

13               Preface question with "As you know, labels are
                 sometimes hard to read."

14               Change wording to "Were the instructions clear?"
                 Add DK to response choices.

15  •             Add "Pets" to indoor and outdoor site codes; add
                 "Germs" to indoor pest list; allow multiple site
                 codes; possibly delete question on number of times
                 the product was applied; let interviewers code pests
                 rather than having them preceded down the page;
                 repeat question on p.9.

I6a              Change wording to "Who used or applied this product
                 most often?  Was it a male or female?  How old is
                 (he/she)?"  Allow multiple responses if applied equally
                 by more than one person.

I6b              Change wording to "Did you use anything other than
                 the original container to apply this pesticide?"
                 If yes, "What?"

I6c              Change wording to "Were any safety precautions used
                 when this product was applied?"  If yes, "what were
                 they?"

17               Revise with three waves of data collection in mind.

18               Delete this section.  Possibly replace with one
                 general question.

26               Ask separate questions for respondent contracts,
                 landlord contracts, and community services such as
                 rodent control; differentiate between a contract
                 and a request for service without a contract.
                              -20-

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3.4.2  Training and Fieldwork

     The following are recommendations for changes to the training and field

work.

1.   Conduct a centralized training session for the field supervisors.

2.   Conduct five-day training sessions for inexperienced interviewers
     and four-day sessions for experienced interviewers.

3.   Administer more home study quizzes before training session to
     reinforce contacting/locating the respondent, recording conventions,
     questionnaire specifications, and pests and pesticides.  This is
     especially crucial for experienced interviewers missing the first
     day of training which covers contacting/locating, production reporting,
     and standard recording conventions.

4.   Develop more consistent pest and pesticide training.

5.   Increase time spent on reading pesticide labels.

6.   Spend more time on overcoming objections at the door using mini-mock
     interviews.

7.   Begin mock interviews at 9:00 a.m. so interviewers will feel fresh
     at this time.

8.   First mock interview should be conducted as a demonstration using
     the trainers as interviewer and respondent.

9.   Develop 5 or 6 other mock interviews.

10.  If training sessions are large, split group into triads for mock
     interviews.

11.  Have trainer stay an extra day in each site, if possible, to assist
     interviewers who seem to be having problems.

12.  Train interviewers in probing techniques using the video tape
     developed by Mathematica and mini-mock exercises.

13.  Simplify and streamline training on production reporting.

14.  Schedule the in-house edit exercise at a more appropriate time
     then at the end of the training session.  It might be good to do
     a second mock interview between the trainers having the Field
     Interviewers coding the responses.  They could then edit those
     questionnaires.

15.  Conduct a separate training session for Rounds 2, 3, and 4 of data
     collection.   The session should be scheduled just before the start
     of Round 2.
                                 -21-

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16.  Allow more than four callbacks.

3.4.3  Sample Design Recommendations

     Complete recommendations regarding the sample design for the NHPUS
are being developed in Task 20, which is a continuation of this project.
Those activities are described both in the Task 20 Workplan and in
evaluation of the alternatives specified in the letter from John Smith
to Frank Potter dated January 1, 1981.  However, some observations based
on the analysis of the Pilot Study date can be made.

     *THe stratification used achieved gains in precision

     Stratifying the sample on size of locality which provides some
control on population density reduced variability by 40 or 50 percent in
some cases.  It is also likely that topographic stratification to isolate
regions relatively homogeneous in pesticide requirements produced addi-
tional gains in precision, however, these data are not yet analyzed.

     *The effect of sample size on the ability to construct complex
      tables is clear:  small samples mean zero cell numbers

     Tables that have either many levels for each factor, or have many
factors, as:
                               Family Size
                    12345678.

           0-2999
        3000-4999
        5000-6999
Income  7000-8999
        9000-10999
       11000-12999

or

          State x Pesticide x Site x Age of User x Sex of User x ... ,
          have many cells.  To fill them will require large sample sizes.

For example, (5 States) x (10 sites) x (4 age groups) x (2 sexes)
     x (3 frequency of use categories) x (10 target pests) = 12000 cells.

The usual rule-of-thumb is 5 observations per cell, so here we are
talking about a sample of 5 x 12000 = 60,000 households.  The lesson is:
Small samples provide for small tables, large or complex tables require
large samples.

3.4.4  Data Anaysis

     (1)  In order to increase the precision and the validity of the
          estimates, a serious effort should be made to obtain from EPA,
          or other sources, files linking State Registration Numbers to
          EPA numbers and, thus, to active ingredients and type codes.
                                 -22-

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(2)   In order to (a)  increase the efficiency of the  analysis  and
     (b) reduce its cost,  the number of categories of the  variables
     of interest should be reduced and, if possible,  be  kept  under
     seven.

(3)   A small number of active ingredients, pesticides and  types of
     pesticides of interest should be identified prior to  the
     analysis.

(4)   The experience of the Pilot Study has shown that it is not
     practical  nor efficient to work with the large  raw  data  file.
     Instead, the data set should be subsetted into  smaller files
     which correspond, in  terms of the information they  contain, to
     the different facets  of the analysis.  It is recommended that
     prior to the analysis the content of these data sets  be  decided,
     and software capabilities for merging and/or combining the
     different  files  be developed.

(5)   Further recommendations will be generated based upon  the first
     part of Task 20.
                            -23-

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