NARSTO
Research Strategy
and Charter
Final Version
November 1994
NARSTO
NOflTH AMERICAN RESEARCH SOUTEOt (Or TROPOSPHEHIC OZONE
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Printed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency
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November 1994
NARSTO
Research Strategy and Charter
Final Version
November 1994
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION PAGE NO.
Foreword v
Acknowledgement of Work Group Participants vii
1 Introduction 1
Scope and Goals of the NARSTO Program 2
Background 3
Overview 7
Interface of Science and Policy 11
Policy Concerns 14
Science Concerns 16
References 18
2 Analysis and Assessment Research Strategy 19
Introduction 19
Objectives 20
Approach 22
3 Observations Research Strategy 27
Introduction 27
Objectives 28
Approach 31
4 Modeling Research Strategy 41
Introduction 41
Objectives 42
Approach 43
5 Emissions Research Strategy 53
Introduction 53
Objectives 54
Approach 56
APPENDICES
A NARSTO Liaison Teams Report 65
B Required Resources, Task Protocols, and Outputs/Deliverables 79
Bl Analysis and Assessment 81
B2 Observations 83
B3 Modeling 109
B4 Emissions 129
C NARSTO Charter 141
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FOREWORD
This document presents the research strategy and the organization and management plan
for the governance and implementation of the North American Research Strategy for
Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) program. These ideas represent the efforts of working teams
consisting of private and public sector scientists, air quality managers, and policy makers from
Canada, Mexico and the United States who attended a NARSTO Planning Workshop in Boulder,
Colorado during June 6-8, 1994. Every effort has been made to solicit the broadest possible
involvement in this formative effort to build a joint private and public research program on
tropospheric ozone.
This document is organized into separate presentations dealing with the four principal
scientific and technical components of the NARSTO (Analysis and Assessment, Observations,
Modeling, and Emissions), and dealing with Organization and Management and Liaison activities.
It includes (a) a NARSTO research strategy and (b) a plan (Charter) for organizing and managing
the NARSTO program.
This document presents the NARSTO research strategy, which includes the principal
science and policy questions of interest, descriptions of strategic activities and goals, a prioritized
listing of major research tasks needed to address these questions, and cost estimates for
implementing the strategy over the next 10 years. Appendix C contains the Charter describing
the structure and management of the NARSTO program.
The Charter describes how the NARSTO program will be organized and managed and
suggests permanent membership guidelines. The primary planning group under the NARSTO
organization is the Executive Steering Committee consisting of 7-11 private and public sponsoring
organization representatives selected by an Executive Congress (i.e., one representative from each
private and public sponsoring organization). A Cooperative Research and Development
Agreement (CRADA) will serve as the framework for implementing the NARSTO program as a
private/public partnership. Negotiations with potential NARSTO sponsors is underway. The
research strategy will serve as the Statement of Work under the CRADA. A formal signing of
the Charter and CRADA will be held to launch "the strategy" as an official continental research
program.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF WORKING TEAM PARTICIPANTS
Analysis and Assessment Team
Amar, Praveen, NESCAUM
Bailey, Brent, NREL
Dann, Tom, Env. Canada
Guzman, Francisco, lost. Mexicano
del Petroleo
Japar, Steven, Ford Motor Co.
Middleton, Paulette, SUNY
McFarland, Mack, DuPont Co.
McNider, Richard, U. of Alabama
Neff, William, NOAA
Rao, S. T., NY Dept. of Fjiviron.
Conservation
Roth, Phil, ENVAIR
Schere, Ken, EPA *
Smith, Richard, NISS
Emissions Team
Cadle, Steve, General Motors
Croes, Bart, California Air
Resources Board *
Gertler, Alan, Desert Res.Inst.
Guenther, Alex, NCAR
Harley, Robert, U. of California
Fujita, Eric, Desert Research
Institute
Jones, Larry, EPA
Lamb, Brian, Washington State Univ.
Lauer, George, Atlantic Richfield
Moucheron, Marie Colette, Mexico
City Gov't.
Oliver, Bill, Radian
Price, Jim, Texas Natural Resource
Conserv. Commission
Rodgers, Mike, Georgia Institute of
Technology
Sarofim, Adel, MTT
Seebold, Jim, Chevron
Solman, Ron, Environment Canada
Somers, Joe, EPA
Wells, Dale, EPA, Region 8
Wendt, Jost O. L., Univ. of Arizona
Liaison Team
Allen, Tom, NY Dept. of Env.
Collom, Bob, GA Dept. of Natural
Resources *
Cowling, Ellis, NC State Univ. *
Hall, Bob, EPA *
Heap, Michael, Reaction Eng.Int.
Hicks, Bruce, NOAA
Hofmann, John, Nalco Fuel Tech.
Hogsett, Bill, EPA *
Johnson, Steve, PSI Technology
Kelly, Michael, TVA
Svoboda, Larry, EPA, Region 8
Tremblay, Jean, Environment Canada
Wendell, Robert, Dunn-Edwards Corp.
Modeling Team
Atkinson, Roger, U. of CA-Riverside
Chock, David, Ford Motor Co.
Carter, William, U. of CA-Riverside
Dennis, Robin, EPA *
Dodge, Marcia, EPA
Dunker, Alan, General Motors
Research Lab
Georgopoulos, Panos G., EOHSI
Hansen, Alan, EPRI
Harley, Robert, U. of CA-Berkeley
Lee, Yin-Nan, Brookhaven Nat'l. Lab
Liu, Shaw, NOAA
McCarthy, James, Gas Research
Institute
Milford, Jana, U. of Colorado
Olson, Marvin, Environment Canada
Peters, Len, Virginia Tech.
Richardson, Jennifer, NASA
Samson, Perry, U. of Michigan
Seaman, Nelson, Penn St. Univ.
Venturi, Ron, Public Service
Electric & Gas Co.
Vll
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Observations Team
Anlauf, Kurt, Environment Canada
Calvert, Jack, NCAR
Chameides, William, GA Tech.
Coffey, Peter, ESEERCO
Crow, Walter L. Radian
Curran, Tom, EPA
Demerjian, Ken, SUNY
Ennis, Chris, NOAA
Fehsenfeld, Fred, NOAA *
Feldman, Howard, API
Kolb, Chuck, Aerodyne
McNair, Stuart, AES/Canada
Meagher, James, TV A
Newman, Leonard, Brookhaven
Ray, John, NFS
Roberts, Paul, Sonoma Technology
Sacks, Jerry, MISS
Scheffe, Rich, EPA
Yarns, Jerry, EPA
Wolff, George, GM
Ziman, Steve, Chevron
Workshop Coordinators
Albritton, Dan, NOAA
Mueller, Peter, EPRI
Vickery, Jim, EPA
* = Work Group Chair or Co-chair
Organization & Management Team
Belian, Timothy, Coordinating
Research Council
Blumenthal, Don, Sonoma Technology,
Inc. *
Curtis, Bill, Univ. Corp. for Atmos.
Research
Donleavy, John, Public Service
Electric & Gas Co.
Farwell, Sherry, National Science
Foundation
Fradkin, Larry, EPA
Frick, Bill, American Petroleum
Institute
Hales, Jake, Envair
De La Luz, Guadalupe, INE/SEDESOL,
Mexico
Lusis, Mans, Environment Canada
Messcher, Walter, DOT
Olivotto, Carmelita, AES/Environment
Canada
Patterson, Ronald, EPA *
Pennell, Bill, Pacific Northwest
Laboratory/DOE
Smith, Martin, Niagara Mohawk Power
Corp.
Vlll
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1. INTRODUCTION
The products of photochemical smog processes in the lower atmosphere, where they may
harm humans, animals, vegetation, and materials have been the subject of repeated control
attempts for nearly 30 years in portions of North America. These products include ozone (O3),
nitrogen dioxide (NOj), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), aerosols, acid pollutants, and other
potentially damaging trace gas species. As growth and industrialization have migrated from urban
areas to suburban and rural areas, these products have traveled as well. Their signatures have
been measured in the lower troposphere over vast areas of the North American continent.
Previous efforts at smog control often have not met expectations, in part, because of the
incomplete scientific understanding of the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes
affecting the accumulation of ozone and other smog products, as well as inadequate monitoring
data to verify the effectiveness of past emissions control measures for the precursors of O3,
notably nitrogen oxides (NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). A part of this problem
can be attributed to the fact that tropospheric ozone research has been sponsored by a variety of
government and non-government organizations, with their individual efforts largely
uncoordinated.
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and others have recently called for a rethinking
of the ozone problem through a comprehensive program of tropospheric ozone research
coordinated across organizations from government (federal, state/provincial, and local), industry,
academia, and other private-sector interests within North America. This call is based on the
apparently disappointing results of recent efforts to control high ozone concentrations and the lack
of coordination of ongoing research efforts in tropospheric ozone science. The present effort,
described here, is known as the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone
(NARSTO). Formal and informal discussions and workshops among the principal sponsors,
performers, and customers of North American tropospheric ozone research have been taking place
over the past two years. Participants have come from government agencies at the national level,
as well as state, local, and provincial levels. Representatives from industry and the private sector,
including the electric power, gas, automobile, petroleum, and forest products industries have
participated. Members of the university and contractor research community have been involved,
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as well as non-profit environmental interest groups. A broad consensus toward coordinated
collaborative research is emerging from these discussions.
Scope and Goals of the NARSTO Program
The overall scope and goals of the NARSTO are presented below.
Scientific Goals
• Develop and implement a research strategy reflecting both scientific and policy
concerns.
• Conduct timely, productive, policy-relevant tropospheric ozone research with
frequent and appropriate reporting of the research results to the scientific, policy,
and air quality management communities.
• Develop and deliver timely, useful, and scientifically credible assessment tools and
guidance to the policy/air quality management community.
• Provide periodic state-of-science assessments of the North American ozone
problems and their control, and to revise the NARSTO research strategy based
upon the identified assessment needs and remaining scientific gaps and
uncertainties.
• Provide a clearinghouse of current scientific and technical information generated
as part of NARSTO (i.e., data, publications, results).
Organizational Goals
• Provide for sustained coordination, collaboration, and leveraging of resources in
tropospheric ozone research by the multiple organizations in North America (both
public and private) sponsoring and participating in this research.
• Develop an organization and management structure that facilitates a high level of
individual organizational ownership in the NARSTO program, and encourages and
supports the critical short- and long-term research required within the research
strategy.
• Provide a unified, cohesive, scientifically sound basis for planning and
implementing tropospheric ozone research that will help sustain sponsors'
commitments to a long-term NARSTO program.
• Include representation within the NARSTO organization from all stakeholders,
including the policy and air quality management, health and ecological effects
research, and emissions control technology research communities, in order to
maintain critical communications links with key customers and other interested
parties.
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This document represents the thoughts and opinions of more than 100 research scientists,
engineers, air quality managers, and policy makers, representing more than 80 public and private
organizations currently engaged in tropospheric ozone-related activities. A brief background and
overview of the NARSTO is presented, as are initial proposals for a prioritized near-term and
long-term research strategy, and organizational and management options for the implementation
of NARSTO. It is hoped that this "blueprint" for NARSTO will evolve into a ratified plan for
its implementation.
Background
The perception and understanding of the ozone problem during the 1960s and early 1970s
was that photochemical smog was a localized problem, confined to certain urban air sheds, mostly
in California and in a few other large urban areas, where the required combination of conducive
meteorological conditions and source emissions led to the chemical accumulation of ozone.
Research begun during this time period elucidated the relevant chemical kinetics of the urban smog
phenomenon through laboratory and controlled smog chamber experiments. Some of the first
urban air quality simulation models developed in the early 1970s were based on this conceptual
model of photochemical smog, and the models were useful for understanding the phenomenon and
non-linear complexity of the Los Angeles smog situation. During the mid to late 1970s field
measurements in the eastern United States began to show a picture of widespread regional areas
of elevated ozone concentrations during the spring and summer months, not as severe as the
measured concentrations in Los Angeles, but nonetheless significantly above tropospheric
background levels. Wolff et al. (1977) analyzed some of these early ozone data from the eastern
United States and aptly described the "rivers of ozone" flowing over 1000-km spatial scales. The
perception of the ozone problem thus began to change from purely a local phenomenon to one of
regional character, with embedded local/urban hot spots or plumes. As measurement networks
improved and instrument capability increased, the scale and complexity of the regional ozone
problem began to reveal itself. Previously unknown and unquantified sources of highly reactive
biogenic and naturally occurring VOCs, such as isoprene, were discovered to be ubiquitous in
forested areas of North America. The photochemistry of the rural atmosphere, of distinctly
different regimes than chamber-studied urban atmospheres, began to be elucidated. Complex
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temporal and spatial, including vertical, structures, in ozone and precursor concentrations were
observed. Some of these more recent findings have changed our perception and conceptual
models of the ozone problems in North America.
Since the late 1980s significant new studies and compendiums of recent O3 research and
air quality management experience have been published (see, for example, AWMA, 1988, 1991,
1992, 1993; OTA, 1989; EPA, 1989). Perhaps the single most significant publication of late on
the subject is the National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences report (NAS, 1991)
on the state of science in tropospheric ozone research and applications. The report, commissioned
and published in response to an explicit requirement in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
(CAAA-90), provides an important milestone in summarizing and reflecting on current science
in ozone research, as well as reflecting on the successes and failures of the last 20 years. There
are a number of important findings and recommendations, as shown in Box 1. The last one, in
particular, bears on the subject of a coordinated national research program on tropospheric ozone.
Since the publication of the NAS report, many new findings have begun to emerge as a
result of research related to recent major field studies. These studies include the Southern
Oxidants Study (SOS), the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS), the San Joaquin Valley Air
Quality Study/Atmospheric Utilities Signatures: Predictions and Experiments
(SJVAQS/AUSPEX), the Southern California Air Quality Study (SCAQS, in Los Angeles), and
others. At a meeting coordinated by the Air & Waste Management Association in San Diego,
CA, in November 1993, results from these studies were reported, and are in the process of being
published. Many of the findings reaffirm the validity of the major conclusions of the NAS
report, while others point to new areas that have not been given sufficient attention in the past,
including among others, emission inventory verification and refinement for episodic modeling,
development and use of innovative diagnostic observational approaches to studying ozone-to-
precursor relationships, and the quantification of uncertainty and risk management in decision
support.
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At the same time that scientific research on the tropospheric ozone problem has been
conducted, air quality managers and decision makers have been attempting to integrate the most
current relevant scientific information into the process of making public policy decisions with
regard to the best management of the O3 problem. Public policy choices have been made with
regard to the ozone problems in the United States at the federal level since 1970 with the passage
of the Clean Air Act and a series of Amendments to the Act, most recently in 1990 (see Box 2).
Thus, there are existing statutory mandates that specify these choices that have already been made
Box 1 National Academy of Sciences Findings
1. Despite the major regulatory and pollution-control programs of the past 20 years,
efforts to attain federal standards for ozone largely have failed.
2. The principal measure currently used to assess ozone trends is highly sensitive to
meteorological fluctuations and is not a reliable measure of progress in reducing
ozone over several years for a given area.
3. The State Implementation Plan process is fundamentally sound in principle but is
seriously flawed in practice because of the lack of adequate verification programs.
4. Current emission inventories significantly underestimate anthropogenic emissions
of VOCs. As a result, past ozone control strategies have been misdirected.
5. The combination of biogenic VOCs and anthropogenic NOX can have a significant
effect on photochemical ozone formation in urban and rural regions of the United
States.
6. Ambient air quality measurements now being performed are inadequate to
elucidate the chemistry of atmospheric VOCs or to assess the contributions of
different sources to individual concentrations of these compounds.
7. Although three-dimensional grid-based air quality models are currently the best
available for representing the processes of ozone formation, they contain important
uncertainties. Moreover, uncertainties in input data, such as emissions inventory
data, must be considered when using such models to project the effects of future
emissions controls.
8. State-of-the-art air quality model and improved knowledge of the ambient
concentrations of VOCs and NOX indicate that NOX control is necessary for
effective reduction of ozone in many areas of the U.S.
9. The use of alternative fuels has the potential to improve air quality, especially in
urban areas. However, the extent of improvement will be variable with location
and specific fuel used. Alternative fuel use, alone, will not solve ozone problems
nationwide and will not alleviate increased auto emissions as in-use vehicles age.
10. Progress toward reducing ozone concentrations in the United States has been
severely hampered by the lack of a coordinated national research program directed
at elucidating the chemical, physical, and meteorological processes that control
ozone formation and concentrations over North America.
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in efforts to reduce the photochemical smog burden in the United States. These choices have been
made without the benefits of a full understanding of the basic science of photochemical smog and
therefore may not be the optimum choices. The CAAA-90 reflect a recognition of this
incompleteness in the science in two areas. First, under Title I (Section 185B), the Act requires
that EPA and the NAS conduct, within one year of enactment of the Act, a study of the roles of
VOC and NOX in O3 formation and control; this is, in essence, the state-of-science document
discussed above. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Energy, the American Petroleum Institute,
and the Motor Vehicle Manufacturer's Association of the United States joined the EPA in
supporting the NAS for this task. Second, under Title IX (Clean Air Research) the Act requires
EPA to conduct longer term research, testing, and development of improved methods for
monitoring and modeling to form a better understanding of the tropospheric O3 problem.
It is explicitly understood that the research conducted within NARSTO by the participating
organizations will be relevant to policy makers and analysts and to air quality managers. Figure 1
presents a potential policy timetable of significant milestones. There are clearly sensitive
Box 2 Clean Air Act and Amendments
In the United States, beginning with the Clean Air Act of 1970, and continuing with the
most recent Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA-90, or the Act) the federal
government has given the States and local governments responsibility for identifying and
implementing additional emissions control measures, beyond those federally mandated
(such as the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program), if the latter do not result in
sufficient progress toward reduction of ambient ozone in a particular area. Title I of the
CAAA-90 further provides guidelines on the categorization of urban areas (from
"marginal" to "extreme") based on their degree of measured exceedance of the National
Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone. Depending upon the severity of the
classification, the State or local government must submit a State Implementation Plan
(SIP) demonstrating, by a mandated date, the effectiveness of proposed emission control
measures at bringing the area into compliance with the NAAQS. This is generally
performed with an air quality simulation model using estimates of projected future
emissions along with proposed control strategies to reduce those emissions. Title n
(Mobile Sources) of the CAAA-90 also bears on the ozone problem by establishing
stricter emissions standards for automobiles and trucks that will phase in reductions of
tailpipe emissions of NOX, VOC, and CO beginning in model year 1994, as well as
require cleaner, or reformulated, gasoline to be sold beginning in 1995 in the nine cities
with the worst ozone problems. Additionally, there are limitations imposed by Title IV
(Acid Rain Control) of the CAAA-90 on the amount of NOX emitted by large industrial
boilers.
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1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001-
2003
2005
2007
2009-
2010
a Marginal areas attain
a RACf Complete '
a 1 1/94 modeling based SIP attainment
strategies, rules, 15% progress rules,
Ti0rJ I/LEV decisions
a Moderate areas attain or bump up
a New ozone standard decision*
> * * > " •< "^ * ><
a Mid-course correction modeling*
a NeW standard (if applicable) attainment
modeling
a Seridus areas attain or bump up*
a Severe (2005, 2007) mid-course
correction modeling
*
a Severe attainment
a Attain new standard
*lf new NAAQS (8-hr, long-term) replace current, post
1997 activities may defer to new NAAQS schedule.
Figure 1. Potential ozone policy timetable for the United States
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portions of this timetable in which new research products, discoveries, and other insights would
be useful in the decision making process. Modeling demonstrations of attainment are required for
particular areas currently in violation of the O3 NAAQS. Future modeling of potential changes
in emission control strategies ("mid-course corrections") will be needed for the most serious O3
non-attainment areas. Also, assessments against potential new forms of the O3 primary and
secondary standard may be necessary. These various modeling and assessment needs by the policy
community represent targets of opportunity for NARSTO to deliver research products that may
be used in a timely manner to meet policy deadlines.
Overview
The NAS (1991) found that "Progress toward reducing ozone concentrations in the United
States has been severely hampered by the lack of a coordinated national research program directed
at elucidating the chemical, physical, and meteorological processes that control ozone formation
and concentrations over North America." Their recommendations on this subject include the
establishment of just such a program, that would elucidate the response of ambient ozone
concentrations to possible regulatory actions or to possible changes in atmospheric composition
or climate. Such a program, they recommend, should be managed independently from the
government offices that develop regulations under the Clean Air Act so as to avoid conflict
between the long-term planning essential for scientific research and the more immediate
requirements of regulatory agencies. The NAS further suggests that the program be broad based,
drawing on the best atmospheric scientists in the nation's academic, government, industrial, and
contract research laboratories. The NAS recommends using the U.S. research program to address
stratospheric ozone depletion as a model of multi-organization cooperation.
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In large part as a response to the NAS recommendations, a series of workshops and
research planning efforts was undertaken in late 1992 and early 1993 to outline a comprehensive
research program and to discuss the potential of performing coordinated collaborative research
among all North American organizations performing and sponsoring tropospheric ozone studies.
Two workshops, jointly sponsored by the EPA Office of Research and Development (Atmospheric
Research and Exposure Assessment Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC) the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Aeronomy Laboratory (Boulder, CO), and the Electric
Power Research Institute (EPRI, Palo Alto, CA), were primarily for the major sponsors of ozone
research, both government and non-government groups, to discuss their respective priorities and
needs, and their ongoing projects in tropospheric ozone science. Separately, a large scale planning
effort, preceded by numerous working group discussions and conference calls, brought together
the principal scientists in North America working in all aspects of the science, to articulate the
principal questions and potential projects for a long-term (10-year) effort to provide definitive
answers and policy-relevant guidance to the outstanding issues of the tropospheric ozone problem.
Foremost among the results of these discussions and workshops was a comprehensive proposed
research strategy, "Coordinated North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone"
(NARSTO), which identified major unresolved questions of tropospheric ozone science and the
principal projects needed to adequately address these questions. The publication and dissemination
of this report was coordinated by EPA/ORD, but the contents represented the thinking and writing
of the dozens of scientists, engineers, and managers participating in the workshop discussions.
Also among the results of this effort was a resolve among the major sponsors to put a research
coordinating organization together to facilitate collaborative research hi the implementation of
future programs. There was a mutual recognition that many of the projects needed to answer the
outstanding questions were of sufficient cost that they could be done only by leveraging resources
across sponsors.
The Subcommittee on Air Quality Research of the Committee on Environment and Natural
Resources (CENR) within the National Science and Technology Council will facilitate the
coordination of NARSTO research activities with other ozone-related and air quality research.
The scope of this committee includes the issues of ozone and other ambient air pollutants, acidic
deposition, airborne toxic materials, visibility and particles, and indoor air quality. In
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recognization that many of the phenomena associated with these issues share the need to better
understand common atmospheric processes, a major role of the Subcommittee will be to improve
the coordination among these research areas. A specific NARSTO-related example of
coordination that the Subcommittee will assist is improving the interaction among monitoring
networks and between the atmospheric and effects research. An additional role of the
Subcommittee is the setting of priorities across the spectrum of air quality research needs. An
improved understanding of the formation and consequences of surface-level ozone in both urban
and rural areas, the sources of ozone precursors, and the effectiveness of current and alternative
control strategies is deemed the highest priority for additional emphasis in the near future.
The science and technology questions identified in the original NARSTO draft report were
subdivided into six particular areas: Health and Ecological Effects of O3, Ambient Monitoring
and Tracking Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Modeling, Emissions Inventory, Alternative
Fuels, and Control Technologies. Among these areas 43 specific scientific and technical questions
were raised to cover the needs of all potential future ozone research. As the result of comments
received during an extensive review of the original strategy document regarding high
implementation costs, a subset of the scientists and managers participating in the workshops and
working groups leading up to the NARSTO report, helped set relative priorities among the
43 questions. Both the NARSTO draft report and the results of the priority-setting exercise have
been widely distributed throughout the ozone science and policy community.
In recent planning meetings and discussions focusing on finalizing and implementing the
strategy, several additional decisions were made. First, it was decided that the research areas of
health and ecological effects and emissions control technologies were sufficiently different from
the other types of research to be conducted within NARSTO that these areas would not be directly
included in the strategy, but would be connected through Liaison Teams that would contain
members of these research communities to ensure relevance and communication between
NARSTO research and these other research areas. The liaison teams would also have members
from the policy and air quality management communities to facilitate critical links with NARSTO
research. (Appendix 1 presents the NARSTO Liaison Teams Report that provides more detailed
thinking and recommendations regarding the possible expansion of liaison functions and
responsibilities.)
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Other teams being established within NARSTO would oversee and perform the component
process-level research required by the strategy. These other teams include the following.
Analysis and Assessment Team Scope: Data analysis and interpretation, integration and
assessment
Observations Team Scope: monitoring/networks, intensives, methods develop-
ment, observations-based analysis
Modeling Team Scope: air quality and meteorological modeling,
development, research applications, and evaluation;
laboratory, smog chamber, and mechanistic studies of
atmospheric chemistry
Emissions Team Scope: process and activity analysis, field studies, emissions
modeling and projections, and control technology
implications
The revised, prioritized NARSTO research strategy is presented in this document in the
context of these working teams. Project priorities reflect deliberations within each team, but not
between teams. Also, a proposal for an organizational structure for NARSTO and management
options for implementing and overseeing the research are presented here as a result of the work
of an ad hoc committee dealing with organization and management issues.
Interface of Science and Policy
Given this background of major events in North American ozone science and policy, we
are now at a significant decision point on how to proceed as a community of scientists, engineers,
policy analysts, and policy and decision makers to jointly make further progress toward managing
the tropospheric ozone problem. It is clear that the NAS recommendation of a coordinated
comprehensive program is sound, but the implementation of such a program will not necessarily
be easy or straightforward. Many agencies and organizations have research and/or policy interests
in ozone research, with varying perspectives and priorities, especially as regards short-term versus
long-term research needs. It may be prudent to take lessons from past history of such major
collaborative projects.
The NAS has suggested using the stratospheric ozone research program as one example
of successful collaboration among organizations. In this case the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) was the lead federal agency. NASA developed a basic research program
of laboratory and field measurements, satellite data analysis, and theoretical modeling. While
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NASA was awarded the majority of federal research funding in this area, they actively formed
joint partnerships with other Federal agencies and organizations in developing a common
intellectual plan and in executing the plan. The particular strengths of the program have been its
broad participation base, including academic, government, industrial, and contract research
groups, its careful coordination with other federal and industrial programs and non-U.S. research
efforts, and the trust and effective joint working relationships built among the participating
groups. The results of this comprehensive and coordinated research effort have been reported to
Congress, EPA, and the United Nations. Its scientific assessments have included modeling studies
that meet the regulatory and policy needs of EPA and regulatory organizations in other nations.
Clearly, these are valuable lessons that should be taken seriously as the NARSTO effort becomes
organized.
Another large program, now in its mature stages, is the National Acid Precipitation and
Assessment Program (NAPAP). The NAPAP 10-year, $600M effort was to assess what was
known about the causes and consequences of acid precipitation and to develop understanding of
what might be done about it. Several retrospective evaluations of the NAPAP program have been
performed (and no doubt more will occur). Russell (1992) provides a number of compelling
lessons. NAPAP's scientific research was expected to contribute to resolving a public-policy
problem; this was not a program designed to advance knowledge per se, such as might be the case
with NSF investigator-initiated research projects. Many of the conflicts within NAPAP arose
because of differing expectations about its role and mission and what success entailed. Another
lesson was that assessment questions should be clearly defined and carefully articulated because
they must guide the research design from which all else follows. The proper role of science is to
advise on what is practicably achievable, and with what expected level of certainty. It is not to
seek to influence, based on inherent scientific merit, what the policy questions should be. Simply
put, policy makers define what is important to inform the ultimate decision and then make the
decision after getting the information they require. Policy analysts define and explicate the
options for the policy makers, bringing to bear relevant scientific information, along with other
considerations of relevance to the decision. Scientists provide estimates of causes and effects
under alternative conditions based on their research, fully disclosing all uncertainties and areas of
ignorance.
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Finally, Russell indicates the proper relationships between these constituencies. For a
program at the interface of science and policy to succeed, what is required is a series of highly
selective semi-permeable barriers that allow or block influence of different types from one set of
players to another. For example, scientists doing and reporting their research must be isolated
from influence over what they find and report, but be subject to direction over the questions that
are of importance to the decision. Policy makers must be protected from policy analysts or
scientists telling them what they should decide, but open to information about what the
consequences of alternative decisions ate likely to be. Building and maintaining such barriers are
inherently difficult and sometimes contentious, but are also essential for the ultimate success of
a program such as NAPAP.
What then might we conclude from these lessons that might have relevance to the
NARSTO? First, like the NAPAP and the stratospheric ozone program, the tropospheric ozone
research program is also at the interface between science and policy. Unlike the others though,
public policy decisions have been made by federal and state statute and implemented through
interpretations of the kw and the relevant science over the past 24 years. Thus, the constituencies
that Russell refers to are perhaps more clearly defined and entrenched in their positions with
regard to tropospheric ozone, than the comparable groups participating in NAPAP or the
stratospheric ozone research program. Given its history, the stakeholders in the tropospheric
ozone issue have much to gain or lose, depending upon the future decisions that are made. It
seems then, that for NARSTO to be successful, much care must go into defining the constituencies
and their respective roles at the outset, with agreement among all NARSTO participants on these
roles. For the scientific research conducted as part of NARSTO to be relevant, the proper role
of science within the tropospheric ozone issue should be established, and clear semi-permeable
boundaries between science and policy must be specified. With this done, the NAS
recommendation of the separation of research from regulation will be accomplished, and at the
same time the relevance of the research to the policy issues will be maintained.
It is important to separate the issues of science from those of policy to help define the
boundaries, discussed earlier, for the NARSTO. The research effort required to address the
fundamental science questions needs a long-term focus and sustained support for both applied and
basic research. The needs of the regulatory community (including both regulators and regulatees)
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are driven more by immediate policy concerns and usually have a shorter term focus. The key
to a successful NARSTO will be the establishment of a program that is broad enough to take a
long-term view of the needed research and assessments, providing support to laboratory and
academic institutions, while at the same time supporting the production of interim research
products for use by NARSTO customers and clients. For this to occur, certain groups within the
NARSTO community must take ownership of the long-term science issues and work with other
groups within and outside of NARSTO to infuse the results of the basic and applied research at
regular and timely (short-term) intervals into products (methods/models for assessment purposes
and guidance for their use) for the regulatory community. With this framework for collaboration
within a NARSTO multi-organization community, there is room for both short-term and long-term
interests, and an objective approach for meeting the needs of all constituents will have been
constituted. As Russell (1992) noted, however, the establishment of the division of responsibility
and authority among the constituents is an inherently difficult task, and it will take good
communication and a willingness to negotiate on the part of all involved. This difficult task must
be performed at the outset of NARSTO. Assisting with such coordination is one of the major
functions of the CENR's Subcommittee on Air Quality Research. For example, major stakeholder
communities were involved in the 1994 National Forum on Environment and Natural Resources
R&D that was sponsored by CENR and the National Academy of Sciences as part of the national
priority-setting process. Ultimate success will depend heavily on establishment of a working
interdependence, trust, and true teamwork among all organizations involved.
Policy Concerns
Examples of the policy issues and questions that are of concern are given below.
(1) For a given area, how do we determine whether an ozone problem exists and how can we
determine its severity?
(Is there a problem?)
(a) What is the best way to characterize the nature of the problem? Is the form of the
existing ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) the appropriate metric to use?
(b) Under potential alternative forms of an ambient air quality standard for ozone (both
acute episodic and chronic longer term type standards) will the perception of an
ozone problem change, and in what ways?
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(2) For an area considered to have an ozone problem, what portion of the problem is
essentially irreducible (based on such factors as natural emissions of ozone precursors and
stratospheric influx of ozone) and what portion of the ozone problem is potentially
controllable (based on anthropogenic precursor emissions into the troposphere)?
(What pan of the problem is tractable?)
(a) For the portion that is potentially controllable, what part of the problem is due to
locally-generated ozone and precursors, and what part is due to sources outside of
the area (regional transport)?
(b) What are the principal anthropogenic sources of precursors and what options are
available for their control?
(3) Do we have evidence that existing control measures are having an impact?
(Are my current efforts helping to alleviate the problem?)
(a) Can we verify that existing source emissions control programs for precursors have
influenced ambient ozone concentrations? What demonstration will be made to
establish the effectiveness of these programs on ozone? How do the demonstrated
changes in ozone compare to the anticipated changes?
(b) Can we verify that existing source emissions control programs have decreased
ambient concentrations of ozone precursors (VOC, NOX, and CO)? What
demonstration will be made to establish the effectiveness of these control programs
on precursors? How do the demonstrated changes in precursors compare to the
anticipated changes?
(4) What are optimal approaches for reducing current and future high ozone concentrations
for a given area considered to have an ozone problem?
(What more should I be doing? How can I be sure that my current and future efforts mil
payoff?)
(a) What are the current predictions, and their associated uncertainties, of existing
policies on ozone and other related pollutants?
(b) Will adequate scientific understanding that links the causes and distribution of
ozone pollution, particularly with regards to model predictions and emission
inventories, be available on the timetable of the Clean Air Act Amendments?
(c) What are the risks and cost-benefit implications associated with these emissions
control approaches? What is the technical, economic, social, and political
feasibility of reducing tropospheric ozone?
(d) What periodic assessments leading to "mid-course" adjustments in control
programs are indicated, and when should the assessments be performed?
(e) Will new potential forms of the ozone NAAQS require a change or redirection in
emission control strategies? Should non-traditional air quality management
approaches be considered?
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(5) What is the magnitude and impact of trans-national-boundary transport of ozone and its
precursors?
(What are the international implications?)
(6) How can the relevant science and scientific uncertainties be meaningfully communicated
to the air quality management and policy communities?
(How can communications be improved between scientists and non-scientists on technical
issues?)
(a) How can tropospheric ozone science be translated into actionable knowledge
(changes in activity patterns) by the public?
Science Concerns
Examples of the research issues and questions to address the above policy concerns are the
following.
(1) How can we determine the current trends in ozone concentrations and exposures on local
and regional scales in North America?
(a) What measurements, monitoring networks, and analyses are needed to establish
ozone trends and exposures?
(b) What measurements, monitoring networks, and analyses are needed to establish
regional and local precursor (NOX, VOC, CO) trends in North America?
(c) What refinements and developments are needed in instrumental methods to enable
routine monitoring of key species (O3, and O3 precursors) and meteorological
parameters?
(d) What are the uncertainties associated with these measurements, networks, and
analyses?
(e) How can the monitoring data be archived so that they are easily accessed and
incorporated into analytical tests of ozone distribution and trends?
(f) Can the effects of meteorological variability be separated from the effects of
precursor emissions influence in the trends of ozone and/or its precursors?
(2) How can we better understand, further identify, isolate, and explain the fundamental
physical, chemical, and meteorological processes responsible for ozone accumulation on
local and regional scales in North America?
(a) What intensive field studies are needed, and in what locations, to further
knowledge about these processes?
(b) What laboratory studies are required to increase understanding of the gas-phase and
heterogeneous chemical processes?
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(c) How can the data associated with these measurements be archived so that they are
easily accessed and incorporated into analytical tests of our understanding and the
processes that control ozone accumulation?
(d) What modeling and diagnostic data analyses are needed to further understanding
about these processes?
(e) What refinements and developments are needed in instrumental methods to enable
measurement of key chemical species (precursors, radical intermediates, oxidized
products, etc.)?
(f) How can we enhance and further build upon the existing science infrastructure in
North America for performing tropospheric ozone research?
(3) How can we incorporate and use the evolving scientific understanding of relevant
processes in diagnostic and prognostic tools (methods/models) for explaining observed
phenomena and estimating impacts of future perturbations of independent variables
(emissions, meteorology, etc.)?
(a) Can we establish quantitative methods of uncertainty in the estimates from these
methods and models?
(b) How do we use the estimates from our methods and models in conjunction with
socio/economic analysis tools for impact assessments?
(4) How do we evaluate and periodically assess the relative contribution of VOCs and NOX,
and their control, to ozone accumulation on local and regional scales in North America?
(a) Is the production of ozone limited by the availability of VOCs or NOX?
(b) Does this limitation change from day to day for a given area or region, or from
area to area on a given day, based on changes in meteorology and emissions?
(c) What data are required, and with what precision and accuracy, to evaluate and
apply diagnostic and predictive methods and models for ozone assessment and
control strategies?
(d) What portion of ozone near the surface can be attributed to natural subsidence from
the stratosphere? How does this change with meteorology and season?
(e) Can we quantify the contribution of urban areas to rural and regional ozone
concentrations, and conversely, can we quantify the rural/regional photochemical
impact on particular urban areas?
(f) Can we determine the flux of emissions of key ozone precursors through field
studies or other measurement programs, and reconcile ambient measurements with
emission inventory estimates of fluxes?
(g) What portion of the ozone precursors are from natural (biogenic) sources and how
will these emissions change with natural (e.g., meteorological variability) and
human-induced (e.g., land-use, climate change) perturbations? What are the
biological factors controlling the emissions of natural VOC and NOX emissions?
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(5) What technologies and approaches are most cost-effective in achieving and maintaining
ozone precursor reductions and reducing ozone concentrations and exposures?
References
AWMA, 1993: Tropospheric Ozone: Nonattainment and Design Value Issues, Transactions
(J. Vostal, S.T. Rao, S. Capone, eds.), Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA,
690 pp.
AWMA, 1992: Tropospheric Ozone and the Environment II: Effects, Modeling, and Control,
Transactions (R. Berglund, ed.), Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA,
955 pp.
AWMA, 1991: Tropospheric Ozone and the Environment, Transactions (R. Berglund,
D. Lawson, D. McKee, eds.), Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA, 875 pp.
AWMA, 1988: The Scientific and Technical Issues Facing Post-1987 Ozone Control Strategies,
Transactions (G. Wolff, J. Hanisch, K. Schere, eds.), Air and Waste Management Association,
Pittsburgh, PA, 736 pp.
EPA, 1989: Atmospheric Ozone Research and its Policy Implications, Proceedings (T. Schneider,
S.D. Lee, G.J.R. Wolters, L.D. Grant, eds.), Elsevier, New York, 1047pp.
NAS, 1991: Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution, National
Academy Press, Washington, DC, 489 pp.
OTA, 1989: Catching Our Breath: Next Steps for Reducing Urban Ozone, OTA-O-412, U.S.
Congress Office of Technology Assessment, Washington, DC, 237 pp.
Russell, M., 1992: Lessons from NAPAP, Ecological Applications, 2:107-110.
Wolff, G., P. Lioy, G. Wight, R. Meyers, and R. Cederwall, 1977: An investigation of long-
range transport of ozone across the midwestern and eastern United States, Atmospheric
Environment, 11:797-802.
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2. ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT RESEARCH STRATEGY
Introduction
The Analysis and Assessment Team within NARSTO performs an integrating function by
coordinating the process-level research on observations, modeling, and emissions toward
answering the policy-relevant science questions of importance to NARSTO. As such, the
members of this team must fully understand the policy concerns, expressed earlier, as a basis to
assess the relevance of specific portions of the research strategy. It is expected that the leadership
of the team would bring knowledge and experience from the air quality management community
as well as the scientific community to bear on the assessment questions. A close association with
NARSTO's Liaison Teams must also be established to assure the relevance of the assessment
research to the concerns of the effects and control technology research communities. Defining
"assessment" within a NARSTO context must be one of the first orders of business of the team.
Periodic assessments of the state of science and policy-relevance of tropospheric ozone research
is an obviously needed activity. NARSTO assessment activities become a component of, but not
the whole of, so-called "integrated" or "end-to-end" assessments which follow through to the
health and welfare impacts on pollutant-sensitive populations and the control technologies through
which ozone management will be achieved. For NARSTO, the key science questions from an
assessment perspective have to do with the relative contributions of VOCs and NOX to ozone
concentration and exposure patterns. Analysis and assessment of regional and local patterns of
ozone and its precursor chemicals will provide a focus for this fundamental issue.
The links between the research planning mechanisms for Analysis and Assessment and the
key policy decision junctures for ozone air quality managers in North America are extremely
important. The ongoing research should provide quantitative assessment of risks associated with
using the NARSTO scientific results in decision making processes at points in time that are
relevant to the processes. Such timely interaction with the policy community should help to
galvanize its support for the continuing research that underpins sound policy decisions. The
scientific process in this regard must also remain an open process of inquiry, without the
"institutionalizing" of scientific judgements once they are stated in an assessment. Periodic
questioning of long-held beliefs must be part of these scientific research and assessment processes.
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A key function of the Analysis and Assessment Team is to coordinate the research activities
among the other working teams toward joint analyses satisfying assessment objectives. The
leaders of the observations, modeling, emissions, and liaison teams are also to be members of the
Analysis and Assessment Work Team. There are many overlaps in the scopes of these individual
teams that can be worked out jointly. Often the overlaps represent the types of research that bear
most strongly on assessment issues. Examples of such overlaps are the understanding and
reconciliation of observation-based diagnostic analyses and emissions-based modeling analyses of
O3 response, understanding the mechanisms and significance of transport on local, regional, and
trans-boundary spatial and temporal scales, and the evaluation and refinement of emission-model
estimates of source fluxes with ambient concentration data. The Analysis and Assessment Team
will work closely with the NARSTO management team, the liaison teams, the data management
group, and the other research groups to coordinate and implement the tasks necessary to meet the
assessment objectives and to periodically evaluate progress toward these objectives and the overall
NARSTO goals.
Objectives
The broad objectives of the Analysis and Assessment Team are to (1) provide scientific
guidance to air quality managers and decision makers in a timely manner and (2) provide guidance
for setting research priorities for the relevant science. The following set of principal objectives
then follows from these broad objectives.
Assessment
• Define and periodically refine the concept of "assessment" within the context of the
NARSTO.
• Perform periodic and timely assessments of the state-of-knowledge in policy-
relevant tropospheric ozone science.
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Integrated Analysis
Identify and support cross-cutting data analysis between observations, modeling,
and emissions research teams.
Develop recommendations for systems of data management, archiving, and
dissemination, that meet the needs of both the prime NARSTO research community
clients as well as interested clients in related communities, including effects
research, control technology research, and air quality management and policy.
Facilitate the transfer of assessment tools, including measurement technologies,
modeling methods, analysis techniques, and guidance for their use, to the
NARSTO customer communities.
Communication
• Develop an effective dialogue process between the science and policy communities
regarding air quality management concerns.
• Provide common reporting structures and formats for conveying to the NARSTO
customer communities findings and interpretations of research studies in clear and
unambiguous terms.
• Develop connections with other air quality and climate issues and provide
recommendations as to how the total tropospheric air quality burden can be
assessed.
(Note that this may be especially critical for the linkage between NARSTO
research and particles and air toxics research, as impending regulations and
possible emission controls for each of these pollutant categories will affect the
other areas in terms of their atmospheric synergism as well as the social and
economic impacts of cumulative controls.)
Uncertainty/Risk Analysis
• Quantify and characterize scientific uncertainty toward assessing risks in air quality
management decisions.
• Provide continuing and comprehensive research planning to maximize the chances
of achieving scientific objectives toward addressing the relevant policy issues in a
timely manner.
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Approach 1
The initial approach to meeting the objectives of NARSTO Analysis and Assessment is
outlined below. The high (**) and highest (***) priority major tasks are generally assigned to
near-term activities, although many of these will lay the groundwork for more intensive longer
term activities to be initiated later.
Near-Term Activities (through 1998):
Strategic Activity 1: Defining and refining the assessment concept within the NARSTO.
Activity Goal: To periodically reinterpret and refine the principal policy and science issues
relevant to the NARSTO, and to establish the broad scope of NARSTO assessments to address
these issues. (Contributes to answering all Science Questions and all Policy Questions)
Major Tasks: ***Conduct early and continuing series of meetings, with representatives
from the policy and air quality management, effects, and control technology communities, to
define and refine the concept of assessment as it applies to NARSTO and these other communities.
(This task is to be conducted jointly with the Liaison Teams.)
• Refine the policy questions and the policy timeline with milestones.
• Refine the major science questions and their priorities, with milestones.
Strategic Activity 2:
Planning for future assessments.
Activity Goal: To develop the guiding principles and protocols for conducting NARSTO
assessments. (Contributes to answering all Science Questions and all Policy Questions)
Major Tasks: ***Develop a design for reducing scientific uncertainty and minimizing risk
in the air quality management process. The design should help elucidate existing scientific
uncertainties, in both observational and modeled data, and their risk impacts on the decision-
making process in the management of ambient ozone. Methods for using results of the
uncertainty/risk assessment analyses are suggested to decision makers.
1 The priorities that were determined for the tasks during the Boulder Workshop (June 6-8, 1994) are shown
before each major task. The priorities are: *** (first or highest); ** (second or next); * (third or lowest).
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***Develop the elements of an assessment protocol for NARSTO, including, but not
limited to, the elaboration of the principal questions and objectives to be addressed by an
assessment, the methods and tools to be used to accomplish the assessment, the establishment of
a baseline for the assessment, and the treatment of uncertainty in the assessment.
• Identify clients/audiences for assessments and the appropriate means of
communicating results to these clients/audiences.
• How are stakeholders involved in the steering of the assessments?
• How is the science community to be organized to conduct the assessments?
Strategic Activity 3:
Assessment of existing knowledge.
Activity Goal: To determine our current knowledge base on the tropospheric O3 problem
in North America. (Contributes to answering all Science Questions and all Policy Questions)
Major Tasks: ***Review and summarize the current state-of-science, state-of-assessment
tools, and adequacy of databases, identifying their strengths, limitations, and needs for
improvement.
• Complete an integrated analysis of scientific findings, conclusions, and lessons
learned from all major recent and on-going urban/regional photochemical oxidant
field and modeling studies.
***Conduct an integrated scientific assessment of the tools and databases for use in "mid-
course correction" State-Implementation-Plan (SIP) modeling to improve the scientific quality and
credibility of the analyses.
***Conduct a scientific assessment of the adequacy of the PAMS monitoring network
toward meeting assessment objectives.
**Study the feasibility of developing methods for determining reliable trends in O3, NOX,
VOCs and separating the meteorological "signal" from the chemical signal in trend analysis.
Continuing and Long-Term Activities (through 1998 and beyond):
Strategic Activity 4:
Integration of NARSTO research activities toward assessment goals.
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Activity Goal: To establish an integrated and coordinated program of policy-relevant
tropospheric ozone research. (Contributes to answering all Science Questions and all Policy
Questions)
Major Tasks: ***Provide ongoing guidance to observations, modeling, and emissions
teams to facilitate integrated plans of data analysis.
***Reconcile emissions inventories with source-oriented field observations.
**Quantify the role of long-range transport using modeling, observations, emissions, and
meteorological analyses.
*Develop confirmatory evidence between diagnostic analysis of observations and diagnostic
analysis of air quality model results.
"•Characterize and quantify the relevant scientific uncertainties, and provide information
derived from these uncertainties appropriate for risk analyses for decision makers.
**Define reliable trends in O3, NOX, VOCs and separate meteorological "signal" from
chemical signal in trend analysis.
**Develop recommendations for database management (QA, archival, dissemination) to
facilitate integrated data analyses. Data types include, but are not limited to:
• observations from routine air quality and meteorology networks
• observations from intensive field studies
• key modeling results
• relevant emission inventory data
*Provide for the transfer of assessment tools, including measurement technologies,
modeling methods, analysis techniques, and guidance for their use, to the wider NARSTO
research and customer communities.
Strategic Activity 5:
Conduct periodic NARSTO assessments.
Activity Goal: To perform assessments as needed and communicate the scientific findings,
conclusions, and lessons learned to the appropriate communities. (Contributes to answering all
Science Questions and all Policy Questions)
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Major Tasks: ""Conduct periodic assessments, based on the developed protocols and
principles, at timely intervals to provide guidance to the air quality management and policy
communities.
Strategic Activity 6:
Establish effective communications.
Activity Goal: To establish and maintain a dialogue between the assessment community
and decision makers, effects researchers, control technology researchers, and other groups
representing social values related to air quality management. (Contributes to answering Science
Questions 3,4,5 and all Policy Questions)
Major Tasks: ***Develop a dialogue and communications plan between the NARSTO
assessment community and client/customer communities.
• Develop critical links to effects community and implement communications plan
to assess impacts on human health and ecosystem exposure.
• *Develop critical links to emissions control community and implement
communications plan to explore feasibility and tuning of new emissions reduction
technologies and approaches.
*Develop critical links to policy community (including national and local interests) and
implement communications plan to assess risks and cost-benefit implications, including socio-
economic and political aspects, of reducing ambient O3.
*Develop and maintain a sustained linkage and effective communications with the
assessment activities of the Subcommittee on Air Quality Research of the U.S. Committee on
Environment and Natural Resources (CENR), who will be promoting broadly based state-of-
understanding assessments involving all of the appropriate agencies and communities. Develop
and maintain similar interactions with such groups in Canada and Mexico.
*Develop and maintain substantive relationships with the Mid-Latitude Ecosystems and
Photochemical Oxidants (MELOX) research activity of the International Global Atmospheric
Chemistry Project (IGAC), with the European Experiment on Transport and Transformation of
Environmentally Relevant Trace Constituents in the Troposphere over Europe (EUROTRAC-2),
and with the EMEP Program for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of
Air Pollutants in Europe.
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*Develop useful reporting structures and formats for conveying scientific and policy
findings and interpretations of NARSTO assessments and scientific research to various customer
communities.
Strategic Activity 7:
Linkage between ozone and other air quality and climate issues.
Activity Goal: To coordinate atmospheric research pertaining to ozone and other related
environmental and climate issues. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 1,2,3 and Policy
Questions 2,4,6)
Major Tasks: **Develop linkages and connected research issues between the tropospheric
ozone problem and other related environmental and climate issues (ex., PM-10/PM2.5, visibility,
toxics, acids, global climate change, etc.). Utilize field measurement infrastructures, to the extent
possible, to measure atmospheric constituents of interest to the various environmental and climate
issues.
**Develop recommendations for dealing with multiple pollutant or "total air burden"
assessments. Consider the impacts on tropospheric ozone air quality management of emission
control strategies proposed for other environmental and climate issues; and conversely, the impacts
on other issues of proposed ozone management strategies.
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3. OBSERVATIONS RESEARCH STRATEGY
Introduction
Ozone levels are not simply a function of local emissions and chemistry but rather are
dependent on the transport of O3 and O3-precursors from adjacent areas. Observing the flux of
O3 and its precursors between identifiable point-sources, urban complexes, and rural areas can
determine the relative contribution of each of these types of sources to each other under a variety
of climatological conditions. The Observations Section of the NARSTO organization is aimed at
developing a comprehensive research strategy to accomplish policy relevant scientific research in
the following areas.
• monitoring and monitoring networks (including PAMS upgrades)
• comprehensive field studies
methods development and evaluation
observational based analysis (OBA)
This document discusses the research required to deal with the key policy concerns and the
associated science questions outlined in the introduction to the NARSTO Plan. The following
sections describe: (1) the objectives that this research is aimed at accomplishing; and (2) the
approach that is suggested to accomplish each of the objectives for which this section of the
program has assumed responsibility.
This section is written with the cognizance that critical research, fundamental to managing
the ozone problem, is underway. This research must continue and the support required to
maintain this research must continue. However, this outline describes the future work in the
"Observations" section of the NARSTO Program that is of sufficient importance that additional
resources must be provided to protect the public interest in managing the ozone problem. The
division between near-term and long-term research is based on the belief that data already on hand
will likely provide the informational base most likely to provide a near-term pay-off. In addition,
we feel that monitoring networks are of critical importance to future progress in managing air
quality in North America. Hence, the definition and design of these networks demand near-term
attention.
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However, the designation of near-term and long-term does not necessarily imply priority.
In this regard, several long-term activities may elicit higher priority than some near-term projects.
It must be recognized that managing air quality requires long range commitments. The NARSTO
Program must be structured with that in mind.
In addition, considerable attention has been directed toward developing and validating
measurement techniques. Many critical measurements cannot yet be made; the accuracy and
reliability of others are open to question. If critical data is to be obtained, measurement
technology must improve. In addition, it will be necessary to greatly improve the reliability,
increase the operational simplicity, and train technical personal in proper operation of research
grade instruments before these instruments can be used for methodical monitoring. The
development of techniques, platforms, monitoring sites, and the design of the studies that use them
must be aimed at providing data products and data product formats that fulfill a specific need and
can be readily and easily used.
For each strategic activity a priority was assigned to the tasks that comprise the activity.
The elements of the observations component of the NARSTO program are described in more detail
in Appendix 3 of this document. The appendix also contains an estimate of the resources required
to undertake each strategic activity of the program. For programmatic guidance, the resources
required to undertake the highest priority elements in each activity are list along with the total
required. A resume of the estimates are contained in Table I.
Finally, there may appear to be areas of overlap between the activities and tasks that are
called for and described in this section and those described and called for in the sections dealing
with "Chemistry and Modeling" and "Emissions." This is a natural consequence of the
crosscutting nature of the key problems in atmospheric sciences, particularly, as they relate to the
ozone problem. As these apparent areas of the overlap indicate, the approach to understanding
and managing ozone must be cooperative and interdisciplinary.
Objectives
The management of photochemical oxidants such as ozone and their harmful effects on
human health and welfare is confounded by the fact that these oxidants are secondary pollutants;
that is they are not emitted directly into the atmosphere but are instead produced in the atmosphere
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by photochemical reactions involving the precursor compounds: CO, VOCs, and NOX.
Management of photochemical oxidants is further confounded by the non-linearities inherent in
the photochemical mechanism responsible for ozone production; because of these non-linearities
the effectiveness of pollution control measures that focus on limiting VOC emissions and/or NOX
emissions can vary greatly depending upon the chemical, meteorological, and land-use
characteristics of the area of interest. Thus a simple reduction of precursor emissions is not
always the most effective method of ozone pollution abatement. Generally more sophisticated and
targeted strategies are needed and the development of these targeted strategies requires a thorough
understanding of the underlying chemical and meteorological processes leading to ozone pollution
in a given locale or region.
Chemical and meteorological measurements are fundamental to our understanding of
atmospheric chemical processes and thus are a prerequisite to the development of effective ozone
abatement strategies. These measurements: (a) Identify the location and temporal periods where
ozone pollution problems exist and the severity of these problems; (b) Provide information on
precursor sources and distributions critically involved in the generation of the ozone pollution in
various locales; (c) Provide data for driving and evaluating Observation-Based and
Emissions-Based Models (and the modules contained within these models) used to determine and
test possible abatement strategies for ozone pollution; and (d) Track ozone and relevant precursors
to determine the effectiveness of the various abatement strategies that are adopted. Recognizing
the essential role of atmospheric observations, the NARSTO research plan must incorporate an
observations component that is scientifically comprehensive and fully integrated into the other
components of the plan.
It must also be recognized that for NARSTO to be successful, the measurements carried
out under its auspices must be technically and scientifically sound. NARSTO recognizes from the
outset the imperative to collect data of the highest quality. To accomplish this goal, significant
resources must be allocated in the program to "instrumentation science"; that is the development
and testing of field instrumentation. As a general rule, NARSTO participants agree to use only
fully evaluated and field-tested instrumentation and sampling protocols and to adhere to rigorous
and well-founded quality control and quality assurance practices.
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Out of the two general principles enunciated above (i.e., the need for scientifically
comprehensive and technically sound field observations), two objectives for NARSTO's
Observations Program have been formulated. These objectives are:
1. Develop monitoring and diagnostic analysis approaches and technology needed to
measure and track O3 and its precursors including that needed:
(a) to capture representative spatial and temporal patterns of local and regional
ozone and precursor distributions;
(b) to identify and separate the component of ozone and precursor trends
influenced by meteorological variability from that caused by variations in
chemical parameters (e.g., emissions);
(c) to establish regional and local trends of ozone precursors (CO, NOX,
VOCs) in North America;
(d) characterize the contribution of North American emissions on the Northern
Hemispheric tropospheric ozone budget;
(e) to diagnose and evaluate emission inventories;
(f) to identify and separate the influence of precursor emission distribution and
trends from meteorological variability on local and regional O3 distribution
and trends;
(g) to determine the roles of various ozone precursor species in the production
of ozone on local and regional scales.
(h) provide data needed to evaluate and assist development of observational
based models (OEMs) and emission based models (EBMs).
2. Design and implement comprehensive field programs needed to understand the
physical, chemical, biological and meteorological processes involved in the
accumulation of ozone in the lower atmosphere by:
(a) developing the needed measurement capabilities;
(b) formulating scientifically well-poised measurement strategies;
(c) carrying out comprehensive field studies of varying duration, seasonal and
spatial coverage;
(d) analyzing data from field programs to address appropriate scientific
questions.
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Approach 1
Near-Term Activities
Strategic Activity 1:
Analysis and Evaluation of Existing Data. (Done in concert with the Analysis and
Assessment Team.)
Activity Goal: Determine the current state of understanding concerning ozone and ozone
precursor trends and distribution. (Contributes to answering Science Questions Id-f, 2c-e, 3a,
and 5.)
Major Tasks: ***Provide an inventory of quality assured (i.e., retrospective QA/QC) data
sets (in standard units and a standard data base format) that are available and accessible for O3 and
O3-precursors.
***Establish a virtual data center for surface ozone measurements made in Canada,
Mexico, and the United States. The center would provide NARSTO scientists with an on-line
service that would provide ozone distribution and trends for North America.
***As a follow-up to the National Academy of Science Report, "Rethinking the Ozone
Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution," using measurements of O3 and O3-precursors
obtained from various regional studies and monitoring networks, develop peer-reviewed articles
indicating the present scientific understanding of the chemical processes that shape the ozone
distribution in urban and rural areas of Mexico, Canada, and the United States.
***Develop an analysis strategy for use of data to determine processes and improve
emission inventories.
• Undertake additional analysis to determine the influence of meteorological
variables on urban and rural O3 concentration. Use statistical regression models
to identify meteorological conditions conducive to O3 accumulation.
• Develop analysis strategies using air concentration data gathered by the regional
studies as a cost-effective means to independently check emission inventories and
understand photochemical pathways.
1 The priorities that were determined for the tasks during the Boulder Workshop (Tune 6-8, 1994) are shown
before each major task. The priorities are: *** (first or highest); ** (second or next); * (third or lowest).
31
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Strategic Activity 2:
PAMS review and enhancement. (Done in concert with the Modeling Team and the
Analysis and Assessment Team.)
Activity Goal: Develop measurement and analysis strategy to enhance and maximize
information and utility of the network of Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Sites (PAMS).
(Contributes to answering Science Questions 1, 2c, and 4a-c, e, g.)
Major Tasks: ***Provide advice for the design and implementation of a data archive for
all PAMS data and derived products.
***Institute annual instrumentation-science course for training of local and state personnel
responsible for implementation and maintenance of PAMS and encourage "monitoring
partnerships" between local and state agencies and academic and private Centers of Excellence in
air quality monitoring.
***Carry out blind PAMS-relevant intercomparisons of measurements of ozone, NO, NO2,
NOy, and speciated VOC at selected sites.
***Obtain observational data for the purpose of determining relative sensitivities of urban
ozone plume to VOCs and NOX emissions.
***Develop and test a hierarchy of diagnostic procedures and analyses that could make use
of data from a PAMS network and review PAMS sampling strategy to optimize the compatibility
of the data-stream with the data input requirements of these diagnostic procedures and analyses.
• Identify analyses and diagnostic applications that will require PAMS data products
and insure that the network will provide these data products.
• Utilize existing data where possible to aid in network assessment and enhancement.
• Carry out measurements of ozone, NO, NOX, and speciated VOC measurements
in selected urban locations using densely-spaced networks and a complement of
airborne platforms (airplanes, helicopters, sondes, etc.) to determine horizontal and
vertical variability of ozone and precursor species in typical urban settings.
• Based on these results, develop spatial and temporal sampling strategies for the
PAMS network that will optimize the scientific output of the network.
***Develop diagnostic tools for the PAMS network based on insights gained from the
above tasks.
***Develop improved data handling approaches.
***Establish similar measurement capabilities and sites in Canada and Mexico.
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**Begin implementation of improved and enhanced PAMS network based on insights
gained from above tasks.
Strategic Activity 3:
Network design for monitoring. (Done in concert with the Modeling, and Analysis and
Assessment Teams, and in coordination with the Effects program.)
Activity Goal: Determine the implications for air quality monitoring of an improved air
quality standard for ozone. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 1, 2c, and 4a-c, e, g.)
Major Tasks: **Develop an objective classification system needed to identify the various
types of O3 monitoring stations. Determine the similarities, differences, opportunities and
trade-offs required to undertake adequate programs in exposure, regulatory/compliance,
trans-boundary flow, and diagnostic monitoring of ozone and ozone-precursors.
**Provide support for the formulation of new ozone metrics that are statistically robust and
account for other relevant factors such as the effects of meteorology.
**Determine if potential alternate statistical forms of reporting ozone air quality (both
acute episodic and chronic long-term) will alter the characterization of ozone air quality compared
to the current statistical form of the standards.
**Determine chemical measurements appropriate to the needs of each network.
**Network design.
• Design a meteorological monitoring component that captures the role that
meteorology and dynamics play in the redistribution of airborne chemicals. In
addition to the standard complement of measurements, attention should be given
to determination of solar flux and the dynamical structure of the boundary layer
and lower free troposphere.
• Develop a comprehensive plan for quality control and quality assurance of the data
to be acquired from this network.
• Determine a criterion to judge how representative ground based measurements are
on various vertical and horizontal scales.
• Develop a strategy for determining the optimum location for monitoring ozone and
ozone precursors.
• Determine the spatial resolution needed to properly describe O3 production,
accumulation, and consumption on urban and regional scales.
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Strategic Activity 4:
Northeastern Scoping Study. (Done in concert with the Modeling Team and the Analysis
and Assessment Team)
Activity Goal: Provide information that would be of assistance to states in the Northeast
in the state implementation planning (SIP) process on attainment of the National air quality
standards for ozone, and to serve as a nucleus for more intensive studies in future years.
(Contributes to answering Science Questions 1, 2c, and 4a-c, e, g.)
Major Tasks: ***Review existing data taken from state air quality and acid rain research
programs. Develop a retrospective quality control and quality assurance plan by assessing the
merit of given data.
***Initiate PAMS siting at strategic locations in the Northeast corridor.
***Design Northeastern Scoping Study.
"""Implement short term studies.
• Measurements of upper air meteorology.
• Surface measurements of O3, NO, NOy, VOCs, and meteorology.
• Aircraft measurements of O3, NO, NOy, VOCs, and meteorology.
Strategic Activity 5:
Continue existing/ongoing regional field studies.
Activity Goal: Better understand, further identify, isolate, and explain the fundamental
physical, chemical, and meteorological processes responsible for ozone accumulation on local and
regional scales in North America. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 2; 4)
Major Tasks: ***Develop a quantitative estimate of the role of vertical mixing in the
redistribution of compounds between the boundary layer and the free troposphere, (underway)
***Obtain a quantitative estimate of the exchange of ozone and ozone precursors between
urban and rural areas, (underway)
***Determine the physical and chemical processes that determine the importance of
point-source emissions to: (1) urban air quality; (2) rural air quality, (underway)
***Determine the relative contribution of biogenic and anthropogenic NOX and VOCs to
O3 formation in urban and rural areas in various areas of North America, (underway)
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***Determine the identities of the natural and anthropogenic sources of NOX and VOCs
and, where possible, estimate the emission of VOCs and NOX from these sources, (underway)
***Promote development of observational based models (OEMs) and emission based
models (EBMs). (underway)
***Provide a retrospective assessment of the problems and failures of existing regional
studies to serve as additional guidance in formulating future field programs, (underway)
Long-Term Activities
Strategic Activity 1:
Development of techniques for routine measurements.
Activity Goal: Develop adequate "routine" sampling techniques for monitoring CO,
VOCs, NOx, NOy, and meteorology from surface locations and, where needed, above the surface.
(Contributes to answering Science Questions lc,d, 2e, and 4f. Done in concert with the Modeling
Team and the Analysis and Assessment Team,)
Major Tasks: **Determine capabilities of current technology for precise and accurate
routine measurements for speciated VOC, H2O2, NO, NO2, PAN, and NOy in urban and rural
environments.
**Develop and test methods for profiling O3, NO2, NOy, CO, H2O, VOCs, and aerosols.
**Develop and test methods for precise and accurate routine measurements of photolysis
rates of NO2, H2CO, and O3.
**Develop and test methods for precise and accurate routine measurements used for
meteorological profiling.
**Develop methods to calibrate and audit these measurements and develop and maintain
low-concentration calibration standards.
**Develop methods for short turnaround/real-time data handling and visualization of
monitoring network data via telemetry or internet links.
Strategic Activity 2:
Development of techniques for process studies.
35
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Activity Goal: Develop techniques that will provide comprehensive chemical and
meteorological data to understand atmospheric processes and test models. (Contributes to
answering Science Questions lc,d, 2c,e, and 4f)
Major Tasks: ***Develop fast response measurement techniques for NOX, NOy, CO, and
O3 that are suitable for aircraft applications.
***Sponsor unbiased evaluation and intercomparison of critical instrumentation and
techniques.
***Develop reliable measurement techniques for oxygenated VOCs.
***Develop new techniques or approaches to measure NO3, HONO, and HNO3.
***Develop and deploy techniques to measure odd-hydrogen radicals.
***Develop and validate LEDAR measurement techniques for O3 and aerosols.
***Develop long-path measurements for O3, NO2, H2CO, H2O2, SO2, and O3, and OH.
**Develop and validate instruments for meteorological profiling.
***Develop calibration and audit procedures to be used with these techniques.
***Develop techniques to measure the heterogeneous uptake, processing and
revaporization of trace chemical species by clouds and background aerosol.
**Develop improved statistical methods to evaluate the performance of existing chemical
measurements.
Strategic Activity 3:
Observation-based emission inventory evaluation. (Done in parallel and in concert with
"Emissions")
Activity Goal: Perform air concentration measurements to improve emissions inventories
for ozone-related chemicals. (Contributes to answering Science Questions Ib, f, 4a, and
4a,b,e/,g.)
Major Tasks: ***Estimate the relative contribution of natural/biogenic and anthropogenic
NOX and VOCs to O3 formation in urban and rural areas in various areas of North America.
"""""Identify the natural/biogenic and anthropogenic sources of NOX and VOCs and, where
possible, provide estimates of the emission from these sources through 14C measurements,
36
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chemical mass balance, principal component analysis, and receptor models, diagnostics, and
analyses.
""•""Identify and develop tracers to indicate origin of air-mass (i.e., upper atmospheric,
stratospheric, marine, continental, etc.)
**Provide database and analysis methods suitable for use in the development of
observational based models (OBMs) and emission based models (EBMs).
Strategic Activity 4:
Observational based analysis and modeling development.
Activity Goal: Develop and test a hierarchy of observation-based analyses and models that
use field observations and data to diagnostically address the science questions identified for
NARSTO. (Contributes to answering Science Questions Ia,b,dJ; 2a,d; 3a; 5)
Major Tasks: ***Develop inventory of observation-based analysis and model development
in use and under development and their data needs.
* """Identify existing observational data sets that might be used to evaluate and compare
results of different observation-based analyses and more traditional emissions-based approaches.
***Compare observation-based and emission-based approaches for consistency and
precision. On the basis of these findings, develop basic protocol for integrating results of
observation-based and emissions-based approaches as a means of assessing the robustness of
findings.
***Apply observation-based and emission-based models to other data sets as appropriate.
Strategic Activity 5:
Determine deposition/removal.
Activity Goal: Determine the chemical and physical processes that control the loss of
ozone, ozone precursors, and intermediates near the surface. (Contributes to answering Science
Questions 2a,c,d; 3a, 4cJ)
Major Tasks: ***Measure the deposition of O3 and NO2 as needed for model development
and simulations.
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**Develop improved techniques for measuring deposition/removal rates of ozone, ozone
precursors, and intermediates (e.g., carbonyls).
"""Understand the dominant processes that control the uptake of ozone and its precursors
by vegetation.
Strategic Activity 6:
Design and implementation of comprehensive field studies. (Done in concert and in
parallel with the Modeling, Data Analysis and Assessments, and Emissions Teams.)
Activity Goal: To provide comprehensive field measurement data sets to support:
1) evaluation and development of emission-based models; 2) evaluation and development of
observation based models; 3) evaluation of natural/biogenic and anthropogenic budgets; and
4) understanding of the fundamental chemical and physical processes that shape the atmosphere.
(Contributes to answering Science Questions 2; 4)
Objectives: This research will be done through a sequence of comprehensive field studies
done at a number of locations throughout North America. The objectives of the research are:
• Determine the role and relative importance of photochemical initiators (O3, H2CO,
PAN, HONO, etc.) on the photochemical production of O3 in rural and urban
areas for various regions of North America.
• Develop a quantitative estimate of the role of vertical mixing in the redistribution
of compounds between the boundary layer and the free troposphere.
• Obtain a quantitative estimate of the exchange of ozone and ozone precursors
between urban and rural areas.
• Estimate the computational errors attendant to model simulations in regions having
significant sub-grid scale sources of O3-precursor emissions. (Done in concert with
"Chemistry and Modeling.")
• Determine the physical and chemical processes that determine the importance of
point-source emissions to: (1) urban air quality; (2) rural air quality.
• Understand the effect of the complex transport associated with the interface
between the continental and marine boundary layers on regional and hemispheric
ozone pollution.
• Understand how different meteorological regimes constrain ozone accumulation
and design field program that capture these regimes.
Major Tasks: ***Determine study priorities; identify location and timing; determine the
size of the region required to fully realize the science goals; determine the length of time required
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to achieve the science objectives; determine resources required to carry out the study. (Note:
Several studies have been suggested and are enumerated below. There may be others.)
**Northeastern United States/Eastern Canada. Provide up-to-date, comprehensive data
bases aimed at improving regional/local emission inventories and supporting model application
in the Northeastern United States and Eastern Provinces of Canada.
• Study the evolution of a regional pollution event as it passes from the Midwest or
the Southeast to and, subsequently, through the urban-matrix of the Northeast.
• Determine the export of ozone and ozone precursors from the Northeastern United
States to the Maritime Provinces of Canada.
"•Dallas Study. Elucidate the photochemistry in a region that is poor in natural VOCs but
a more significant source of anthropogenic/biogenic NOX.
*Midwest United States/Ontario-Quebec Corridor. Determine the factors that control the
export of ozone and ozone precursors from the Midwestern United States into the southeastern
provinces of Canada and the impact of the compounds on Canadian air quality.
*Mexico City. Initiate regional-scale field studies in Mexico aimed at improving our
understanding of the processes that control the accumulation of ozone in Mexico (especially
Mexico City).
*Mexico/Southwestern United States. Examine the impact of transborder transport of
ozone and ozone precursors on the air quality of Mexico and the United States and the impact of
economic expansion within Mexico upon its air quality and the air quality of the southern United
States.
Strategic Activity 7:
Advance technology and develop innovative new approaches.
Activity Goal: Develop new science and technology needed to improve air quality
management. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 1-4)
Major Tasks: ***Sponsor development of promising innovative combinations of new
measurement and modeling techniques (e.g., mobile and airborne drone monitors).
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TABLET. OBSERVATIONS: RESOURCES REQUIRED (Dollars in millions)
A. Near-Term:
Activity
Analysis of Existing
Data
PAMS Review and
Enhancement
Network Design
NE Scoping
Study
Ongoing Field
Studies
A. TOTALS
1995
0.4 ***
0.4
0.5 ***
0.5
0.4
0.3 ***
0.3
9 ***
?
1.1 ***
1.6
1996
0.4 ***
0.4
1.0 ***
1.0+0.3/site
0.4
0.7 ***
2.6
9 ***
9
2.1 ***
4.4+
1997
0.4 ***
0.4
1.0 ***
1.0+0.3/site
0.4
0.7 ***
2.6
9 ***
?
2.1 ***
4.4+
B. Long-Term:
Routine
Measurements
Process Study
Techniques
Obs.-Based
Emission
Evaluation
Obs.-Based
Analysis and
Model
Development
Deposition and
Removal
Comprehensive
Field Studies
Innovative
Approaches
B. TOTALS
GRAND TOTAL
(i.e., A+ B)
0.5
32 ***
4.0
0.5 ***
0.5
0.5 ***
0.5
0.2 ***
0.6
0.3
0.1 ***
4.5 ***
7.0
5.7 ***
8.6
0.5
3.2 ***
4.0
0.5 ***
1.0
1.0 ***
1.0
0.2 ***
0.6
3.3
0.5 ***
5.4 ***
10.9
7.5 ***
15.3+
0.5
3.2 ***
4.0
0.5 ***
1.0
1.0 ***
1.0
0.2 ***
0.6
10
0.5 ***
5.4 ***
17.6
7.5 ***
22.0+
*** = Highest Priority
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4. MODELING RESEARCH STRATEGY
Introduction
Air quality simulation models have become a cornerstone of the air quality management
process. Air quality models are critical to explaining the function of local and regional emissions,
meteorology, photochemical processes, and the transport of O3 and O3 precursors from adjacent
areas on ozone levels. Models help analysts understand the source of a problem, who or what is
contributing to it, and what types of controls would be expected to work. The air quality model
is one of the major quantitative tools used in the regulatory process (state implementation
planning) to establish the link between the regulatory control program and attainment of the ozone
air quality standard.
A critically important component of air quality simulations models is the chemical
transformation mechanism describing the reactions that VOC and NOX undergo to produce O3,
other oxidants, HNO3, HjSC^, and fine particulates. Meteorological factors, such as temperature,
wind speed, synoptic weather, cloud transport, and interchange at the boundaries (stratosphere and
Earth's surface) affect the potential for photochemical productions of ozone.
Although significant progress has been made over the past several decades in our
understanding of the physical arid chemical processes that affect and are responsible for
photochemistry, substantial uncertainties remain. Specifically, we only poorly understand the
oxidation pathways for a variety of biogenic and anthropogenic organic species commonly found
in the atmosphere and thought to be important contributors to ozone formation. Many important
meteorological variables and forcing features of motion are only resolved at coarse scales or
poorly approximated in current air quality models. Coupled interactions between meteorology and
chemistry at fine spatial and temporal scales are ignored. The lack of understanding severely
limits our ability to provide accurate assessments of the ozone production capacity of biogenically-
and anthropogenically-emitted chemical species.
There is a need, therefore, to develop a comprehensive research strategy to define the
scientific research required in critical physical and chemical areas that will advance our air quality
modeling tools and our ability to more effectively address the key policy concerns and associated
science questions outlined in the introduction to the NARSTO Plan. The following sections
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provide a summary of the objectives and the approach. A more complete description of the
approach is provided in Appendix 4 Modeling.
This summary and the appendix only indicate the future scientific work in the Modeling
Section of the NARSTO Program requiring additional or redirected resources to accomplish an
overall program. The summary highlights research areas and tasks from the overall program that
are deemed critical, broken into near-term and long-term tasks. The near-term research addresses
those projects that are currently in the "pipeline" that can be focused to produce near-term pay-off
for the NARSTO program. Many efforts in the long-term category require immediate attention,
however. Hence, there is no priority implied in the division between long-term and near-term
research. The approach is consistent with the recognition that managing air quality requires long
range commitments.
Objectives
The photochemical system is a large, complex, nonlinear open system. Our observations
of it are very limited in terms of space, time and species. The time scales of transport and mixing
(meteorology) and chemical production overlap and span many orders of magnitude.
Interpretation and understanding of the processes occurring in the real world are made difficult
by the lack of repeatability of meteorology. Models are important vehicles for consolidation of
our understanding and for study of the interactions and interrelationships of the physical and
chemical processes. The emissions-based model is, essentially, a numerical laboratory. Models
are also fundamental to prediction and assessment. An important use of the emissions-based
models is to test possible abatement strategies for ozone pollution and determine their relative
effectiveness. To be successful, the scientific understanding incorporated in the emissions-based
models needs to be up-to-date and have a tolerable degree of uncertainty. No model is perfect,
because of the complexity of the system being represented and the sparseness of the data coverage
available for testing. The degree and character of uncertainty in emissions-based model
predictions due to limits in our understanding or ability to represent it in the current models needs
to be quantified. Nevertheless, in spite of recognized uncertainty, it is important to bring the best
science to bear on the societal problems being addressed in NARSTO.
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With these perspectives, the modeling team has enunciated three major objectives for the
NARSTO Modeling Program. The objectives of the modeling team are:
• Advance our understanding of the physical-chemical system and explain
observations and the sources of uncertainty;
• Quantify and reduce to the extent possible key uncertainties in emissions-based
models; and
• Provide models adequate for assessment.
Meeting these objectives requires a coordinated, interrelated program of science improvement,
and air quality model development and evaluation.
The relevance of the research stems from the direct improvement to the air quality models
as cornerstone tools for assessment. The objectives address several NARSTO policy and science
questions simultaneously and cover different facets of them, spanning from interpretive
understanding to quantitative tools. The main NARSTO Policy Concerns addressed are: "What
part of the problem is tractable?" (P-2), "What more should I be doing?" (P-4), "What are the
international implications?" (P-5), and "How can communication be improved?" (P-6). The main
NARSTO Research Issues addressed are: "How can we better understand and explain the
fundamental processes?" (S-2), "How can we incorporate and use the evolving scientific
understanding in diagnostic and prognostic tools?" (S-3), and "How do we evaluate the relative
contribution of VOC's and NOX and their control to ozone accumulation?" (S-4). The modeling
research activities have components that are closely coupled with other research sections of the
NARSTO plan. The fundamental work of the modeling section and its associated practical
mechanistic and modeling components will serve the NARSTO mission as well as many of the
broader scientific challenges facing the atmospheric research community.
Approach 1
Three aspects of research are to be addressed. First, to improve the descriptions of the
physical-chemical processes in key areas that have known uncertainties. Second, to develop the
modeling systems into quantitative, numerical tools and use them to identify and diagnose areas
1 The priorities that were determined for the tasks during the Boulder Workshop (Tune 6-8, 1994) are shown
before each major task and project. The priorities are: *** (first or highest); ** (second or next); * (third or
lowest).
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needing new or further attention. Third, to improve our ability to evaluate, diagnose and explain
model behavior and improve our ability to communicate model results. These relate to traditional
activities of science process development, model development, model evaluation and model
application. Five strategic research areas have been identified with the first activity of science
process development, and a single strategic research area is identified with each of the latter three
activities, totalling eight. The eight Strategic Research Areas are:
1. Influence of Biogenic VOCs
2. Chemistry of Anthropogenic VOCs
3. Vertical Mixing and Transport Processes
4. Heterogeneous Processes
5. Fine-Scale Phenomena
6. Development of Modeling Systems
7. Model Evaluation, Corroboration and Diagnosis
8. Application of Modeling Systems
Improving the basic scientific understanding for incorporation into the models underpins the
program.
The atmospheric chemistry research within the NARSTO strategic plan addresses the
development of practical, credible scientific chemical transformation mechanism(s) which provide
a quantitative understanding of the formation of ozone through the chemical reactions of biogenic
and anthropogenic species found in the atmosphere. These mechanism can be used in conjunction
with a variety of tools including air quality simulation models and observational based modeling
approaches.
The meteorological research within the NARSTO strategic plan addresses the development
of improved, credible meteorological models that provide the necessary quantitative descriptions
of the meteorology of greatest importance to periods of elevated photochemical production, that
is, weakly forced systems. Most weather-related meteorological model development is for
strongly forced systems, i.e., storms. The air quality community must forge its own direction to
support the modeling of photochemical ozone production.
Advancement of model evaluation techniques to test the science incorporated in the models
in a scientifically rigorous fashion is also addressed. Because the photochemical system is large
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and complex, we are only able to sample and probe a portion of it for the testing of theory and
models. The modeling research needs to coordinate with development of innovative techniques
for studies of atmospheric chemistry and interpretation of observations to achieve sufficient rigor
and diagnostic understanding out of necessarily sparse field data coverage.
Near-Term
Goal:
Near-term research efforts are aimed at quantifying model output uncertainty resulting
from uncertainty in model inputs and at producing improvements in the regional and urban air
quality models in the next 2-3 years (by 1997) to reduce their uncertainty in the simulation of
ozone production. This work depends on research already under way. Greater detail is provided
in Appendix 4 on Modeling. (The near-term research activities contribute underpinnings to
answering policy questions P-2, P-4, and P-6; they contribute to answering science questions S-2
and S-4)
Strategic Activity 1:
Influence of Biogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Improve the chemical mechanisms for biogenic VOC's in the air quality
models using existing data.
***Major Task 1.3: Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms
***Develop an improved mechanism for isoprene using existing kinetic/mechanistic data
and smog chamber data,
**Develop an improved mechanism for the monoterpenes using the existing (although
limited) kinetic/mechanistic data and smog chamber data.
Strategic Activity 2:
Chemistry of anthropogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Improve the chemical mechanisms for anthropogenic VOC's in the air
quality models using existing data.
***Major Task 2.2: Smog Chamber/Atmospheric Observations Research
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***Obtain smog chamber data for testing chemical oxidant mechanisms for ethanol, methyl
tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE).
***Major Task 2.3: Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms
***Expand the VOC chemistry included in existing mechanisms so the mechanisms can
be used for diagnostics of current air quality model predictions.
***Develop an improved mechanism for the reaction of alkenes with O3 and OH radicals.
Strategic Activity 3:
Vertical mixing and transport processes (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Develop the process-level information to advance our understanding of the
individual vertical mixing, transport and boundary processes important to the regional and urban
meteorological influence on photochemical production.
***Major Task 3.1: Meteorology: Transport and Mixing
***Develop improved parameterizations of soil moisture and surface/canopy heat flux
exchange for the meteorological models.
***Evaluate and improve parameterizations of the planetary boundary layer used currently
in meteorological models.
**Major Task 3.3: Enhance Coupling of Met.-Chem.- and Emissions
"""Incorporate new, high-resolution land-use information consistently into models especially
biogenic emissions and meteorological models.
Strategic Activity 5:
Fine-scale phenomena (Done in concert -with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: More accurately describe the coupled interactions between chemistry and
meteorology at fine temporal and spatial scales.
***Major Task 5.1: Process Parameterization/Module Development
***Develop an advanced plume-in-grid capability for regional and urban air quality models
for incorporation into current chemical transport models.
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Strategic Activity 7:
Evaluation, corroboration and diagnosis (Done in concert with the Observations and
Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Determine the strengths and weaknesses of the emissions-based models and
quantify their uncertainty relative to applications questions. Help characterize our level of
understanding of the photochemical processes. Provide guidance to efficiently target resources
to the most critical monitoring methods and network and field study design issues.
*** Major Task 7.1: Application of Diagnostic Tools
***Compile existing and ongoing sensitivity/uncertainty studies and process pathway
analyses; identify major holes to fill and initiate studies to identify points of sensitivity and their
consequences.
*** Major Task 7.2: Diagnostic Comparisons Against Field Data
***Evaluate improved planetary boundary layer parameterizations in 3-D simulation
models using detailed data sets, such as those from SJVAQS/AUSPEX and SOS.
*** Major Task 7.3: Field Study Design and Support
"•"""Coordinate with Observations Team on aircraft support for measurements of full
chemistry aloft and measurements by ozone LEDAR during the 1995 Nashville Intensive to
develop a high quality data base for model evaluation. Provide measurement support for a second
isoprene measurement site as part of the 1995 Nashville Intensive.
***Coordinate with the Observations Team on field study design work for the Northeast.
Strategic Activity 8:
Application of modeling systems (Done in concert with the Analysis and Assessment,
Observations, and Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Provide model analyses for the Assessment Team. Help to define the
uncertainty in assessment linkages and answers.
*** Major Task 8.2: Quantification of Uncertainty
***Characterize/quantify the effects of model uncertainties on predictions of control
strategy effectiveness.
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*** Major Task 8.3: Advanced Model Assessment
***Compare results from improved models with those from current model regarding
predicted effectiveness of control strategies.
Long-Term
Goal:
The objective is to define and carry out the basic long-term scientific research required to
improve our understanding in critical physical and chemical areas. Greater detail plus a listing
of Major Tasks for long-term research can be found in Appendix 4 on Modeling. (The long-term
research activities contribute underpinnings to answering policy questions P-2, P-4, P-5, and P-6;
they contribute to answering science questions S-2, S-2 and S-4)
Strategic Activity 1:
Influence of biogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Substantially improve our understanding of the chemical kinetic and
mechanistic processes important to the chemistry of biogenic VOC's. Acquire new, more-
advanced data on the complex reaction system associated with atmospheric photochemical
oxidation processes both in the laboratory and in the atmosphere. These data are to support the
development and evaluation of chemical mechanisms used in the air quality models. The desired
outcome is, first, acquisition of the elementary kinetic and mechanistic data needed to construct
reliable chemical transformation modules; second, acquisition of a comprehensive database of
smog chamber and atmospheric observations that can be used to evaluate chemical reaction
mechanisms; and, third, reliable chemical transformation modules that can be used in the next
generation of air quality models.
*** Major Task LI: Chemical Kinetic and Mechanistic Studies
*** Major Task 1.2: Smog Chamber/Atmospheric Observations Research
*** Major Task 1.3: Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms
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Strategic Activity 2:
Chemistry of anthropogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Substantially improve our understanding of the chemical kinetic and
mechanistic processes important to the chemistry of anthropogenic VOC's. Acquire new, more-
advanced data on the complex reaction system associated with atmospheric photochemical
oxidation processes both in the laboratory and in the atmosphere. These data are to support the
development and evaluation of chemical mechanisms used in the air quality models. The desired
outcome is, first, acquisition of the elementary kinetic and mechanistic data needed to construct
reliable chemical transformation modules; second, acquisition of a comprehensive database of
smog chamber and atmospheric observations that can be used to evaluate chemical reaction
mechanisms; and, third, reliable chemical transformation modules that can be used in the next
generation of air quality models.
*** Major Task 2.1: Chemical Kinetic and Mechanistic Studies
*** Major Task 2.2: Smog Chamber/Atmospheric Observations Research
*** Major Task 2.3: Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms
Strategic Activity 3:
Vertical mixing and transport processes (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Develop more accurate understanding and parameterizations of the
individual vertical mixing, transport, boundary and large-scale meteorological processes that have
an important influence on regional- and urban-scale photochemical production. Develop means
to more accurately represent the meteorological processes in mathematical models. Improve the
linkages among meteorology, emissions and chemical transport models. Provide new
developments to improve the meteorological modules/drivers in the air quality modeling systems.
*** Major Task 3.1: Transport and Mixing
*** Major Task 3.2: Data Assimilation/Large-Scale Interactions
*** Major Task 3.3: Enhanced Coupling of Meteorology-Chemistry-Emissions
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Strategic Activity 4:
Heterogeneous processes (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: To elucidate the role heterogeneous processes play in the transformation
and deposition of atmospheric species that are important to oxidant formation.
*** Major Task 4.1: Transformation and Removal in the Aqueous Phase
** Major Task 4.2: Transformation and Removal on Aerosols and the Earth's
Surface
*** Major Task 4.3: Development of Aqueous-Phase Oxidant Mechanisms
Strategic Activity 5:
Fine-scale phenomena (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Develop innovative techniques that provide a more accurate description of
the fast photochemistry occurring at the turbulence tune scales. Develop new modules for
incorporation into the air quality models that can account for sub-grid effects in current models
and more accurately describe the coupled interactions between chemistry and meteorology at fine
temporal and spatial scales.
*** Major Task 5.1: Parameterization of Sub-grid Processes into Modules
** Major Task 5.2: Identification and Study of Sub-grid Processes
Strategic Activity 6:
Development of modeling systems
Activity Goal: Incorporate the improvements in process-level understanding into the
emissions-based air quality models (model modules). Incorporate improvements in model
infrastructure to provide tools for more insightful model evaluation and to allow easier and more
appropriate model applications and interpretations of results.
** Major Task 6.1: Model System/Numerical Improvements
** Major Task 6.2: Enhanced Coupling Across System Elements
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Strategic Activity 7:
Model evaluation, corroboration and diagnosis (Done in concert with the Observations and
Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Determine the strengths and weaknesses of the emissions-based and
observations-based models relative to applications questions. Help to characterize our level of
understanding of the photochemical processes. Help to efficiently target resources to the most
critical monitoring methods and network and field study design issues.
*** Major Task 7.1: Develop and Apply Diagnostic Tools
*** Major Task 7.2: Diagnostic Model/Module Comparisons Against Field Data
*** Major Task 7.3: Field Study Design and Support
Strategic Activity 8:
Application of modeling systems (Done in concert with the Analysis and Assessment,
Observations, and Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Provide model analyses for the Assessment Team. Help to define the
uncertainty in assessment linkages and answers.
** Major Task 8.1: Policy Study Design Analysis
*** Major Task 8.2: Policy-Related Uncertainty Analysis
** Major Task 8.3: Model Intercomparisons
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5. EMISSIONS RESEARCH STRATEGY
Introduction
The Emissions Team of the NARSTO organization amis to develop a comprehensive
strategy to accomplish policy-relevant scientific research in the areas of:
• Base emission estimates
• Emission inventory accuracy assessment
• Emission projections
This section of the document discusses the research needed to address the key policy
concerns and the associated science concerns outlined in the introduction to the NARSTO Working
Draft Plan. The following subsections describe: (1) the objectives that the Emissions Team aims
to accomplish; and (2) the research that is suggested to accomplish the objectives. This section
draws heavily from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) early 1993 draft
proposal on a Coordinated North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone, which
includes input from much of the emission research community in Canada, Mexico, and the United
States.
The work described in this section will need to be coordinated with other technical Teams.
The Observations Team will need to develop measurement methods and implement monitoring
programs that provide data to chemically speciate emission estimates and independently assess the
accuracy of emission inventories. The Modeling Team will need to define data needs for
emission-based models so that the Emissions Team can provide emission inventories of sufficient
accuracy and of adequate spatial, temporal, and chemical resolution. Finally, the Analysis and
Assessment Team will need information on emission control strategies that are practical from both
technological and economic viewpoints.
It is encouraging to see the increased cooperation over the last few years between various
government and industry groups that deal with emission inventory and control strategy issues.
Hopefully, NARSTO can provide a mechanism for improved coordination of ongoing and future
research in order to maximize productivity and insure success.
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Objectives
The emission inventory is a key component of air pollution control programs. It includes
information on the types of emission sources, quantities of emissions, the temporal and spatial
characteristics of emissions, chemical speciation, and reductions resulting from emission control
devices. Air pollution control agencies use emission inventories to identify potential control
measures and sources that would be subject to controls, to determine control program
effectiveness, and to predict future air quality through air quality simulation models. This
information is used to develop air quality management plans for attaining ambient air quality
standards. To be effective, the air quality management plans must be based upon emission
inventories that are reasonably complete and accurate. However, the uncertainties associated with
emission inventories are not well-characterized since most emission estimates are based upon
models, engineering analyses, and limited test data rather than on systematic measurements of
actual or "real-world" emissions. Underestimation of current emissions or overly optimistic
estimates of the benefits of emission controls can lead to underproduction of emissions, which in
turn can lead to false expectations for improvement in air quality in future years.
The accuracy of emission estimates has taken on a new level of significance under recent
United States and California Clean Air Act legislation. The 1990 amendments to the U.S. Clean
Air Act require states to track emissions reductions in order to show "reasonable further progress"
towards attainment of U.S. air quality standards. The California Clean Air Act of 1988 requires
air pollution control districts in nonattainment areas of California to develop plans to achieve
annual reductions in emissions of 5 percent. These emission-tracking requirements have focused
the spotlight on emission inventories and have reinforced the need for better estimates of overall
uncertainties.
In recognition of the need for a thorough assessment of uncertainties in current emission
inventories, the U.S. EPA, the California Air Resources Board, the Coordinating Research
Council, and other government agencies and industry groups have committed substantial resources
over the long-term for improving emission inventory methods and estimates of emission inventory
uncertainty. The initial focus has been on on-road mobile sources because of recent studies that
suggest that current emission factor/activity models underestimate nonmethane organic compound
(NMOC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. The plan for this long-term effort involves two
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approaches to the problem - the "classical" emission model approach and independent assessments
of mobile source emission inventory accuracy. The "classical" approach relies upon refining
present emission models and methodologies for estimating emission and activity factors. The
assessment approach seeks to evaluate the inventory by making independent estimates of
emissions, such as reconciliation of emissions with air quality measurements. The emission
inventory will be deemed reliable when both estimates are in reasonable agreement. These
parallel approaches should be adopted for other categories of emissions.
A number of other emission categories are also in need of study and improvement.
Emissions of NMOC from solvent usage, oil and gas industry operations, and other stationary area
source categories are difficult to characterize because of the large number and variety of sources.
Electric utilities and other point sources that are large sources of nitrogen oxides (NOX) have
emission factors that are uncertain. Nonroad mobile sources are major emitters of NMOC and
NOx and are thought to be under-reported. Biogenic NMOC emissions and "natural" emissions
of NOx ft001 fertilizer applications are receiving a great deal of study because of their perceived
contribution to rural, and in some areas, urban ozone problems.
It is not enough to just improve the accuracy of emission estimates. In order to develop
better control strategies, it is important to understand the emission processes themselves. A
methodology that uses mathematical modeling together with data, rather than the traditional
interpolation/extrapolation of data alone, can incorporate our understanding of mechanisms that
are important in determining emission factors. The disaggregation available in a model can
provide for a dynamic response to changes as diverse as those in technology or social behavior
without the need of an additional expensive study of emission factors. More important, it can
anticipate the future emissions for a variety of scenarios of demographic, economic, or regulatory
changes. These mechanistically based models of emissions can be developed for a range of
sources.
A series of objectives for NARSTO's Emissions Team has been formulated based on the
two general principles described above (i.e., the need to develop emission inventories with
emission factor/activity models and conduct independent assessments) and the need for a
mechanistic understanding of emission processes. These objectives are:
1. Develop an accurate mechanistic understanding of emission processes and prepare
timely estimates of emissions that are:
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a) quantified;
b) resolved in time and space; and
c) chemically speciated.
2. Assess the accuracy of emission estimates with independent techniques.
3. Project the effects of future activity and alternative controls on emission estimates.
The need for improved emission estimates was recognized several years ago (e.g., NAS
report), and a great deal of work is already underway (e.g., Emission Inventory Improvement
Program). The function of NARSTO will be to initiate new research efforts in coordination with
existing programs.
Approach
The scientific approach is an attempt to achieve the objectives stated above in an ambitious
ten-year timeframe. The strategic activities are not in priority order as a partial implementation
cannot achieve the objectives; it will take the complete package of projects. Thus all major tasks
are assigned the highest priority (***). The cost estimates are strictly an estimate, and do include
on-going work.
Strategic Activity 1:
On-road Mobile Source Emission Model Development (Done in concert with the Modeling
Team)
Goals: Develop on-road emission models that are capable of representing separate modes
of vehicle operation and the resultant modal emissions for specific roadway sections and parking
areas (contributes to addressing Science Concerns 3a, 4c and 5).
Background: Mobile source emissions are estimated by multiplying an emission rate (from
an emission factor model) by an activity factor (from a travel demand model). It is now
recognized that current models do not adequately represent situations such as "off-cycle" driving
modes (e.g., hard accelerations, high speeds, and road grades), "high-emitters," evaporative
losses, etc. Studies are underway to develop more representative driving test cycles, to determine
the contribution of high-emitters, and to establish a representative fleet of vehicles for testing, but
the U.S. EPA and others recognize that the situation calls for a complete re-design of the mobile
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source emission models. In addition, the situation has become much more complicated with the
introduction of new fuels and vehicle technologies in response to regulations being implemented
in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
Major Tasks: ***Survey mobile source emission inventory approaches on state and
national levels. Determine if on-going work can be applied to other geographic areas, (near
term)
***Evaluate the uncertainty of mobile source emissions inventories using present and
future techniques with an integrated assessment of datasets used in developing emission and
activity factors. Use this information to prioritize further research, (ongoing)
***Establish a framework for a research-grade mobile source emission model that provides
estimates of emissions resolved temporally and spatially. The model will need independent
emission factor and activity modules for various aspects of vehicular emissions (e.g., fuel type,
closed- and open-loop operation, cold and hot starts, evaporative losses, road grade, air
conditioner use, age, tampering, driver behavior). Develop and test the approach for one city.
After testing and validation for one city, expand to other cities in North America for more
complete module development, (near term)
***Develop modal emission factors (exhaust and evaporative) for automobiles and
light-duty trucks for all aspects of vehicle operation, vehicle condition, fuel parameters (e.g.,
reformulated gasoline, oxygenated fuels), and driver behavior in the laboratory and under on-road
conditions, (near term)
***Develop temporally and spatially resolved activity data for automobiles and light-duty
trucks with improved travel demand models. The models must provide estimates of vehicle
activity for each modal emission factor, (near term)
***Develop modal emission factors for medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the laboratory
and under on-road conditions. Heavy-duty track research would be near term because of their
large contribution to NOX emissions, while medium-duty track work would be long term.
***Develop temporally and spatially resolved modal activity data (e.g., idling time by
season, load operations due to weight and grade) for heavy- (near term) and medium-duty tracks
(long term).
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***Using a variety of on-road studies of in-use vehicles, determine how much vehicle
activity is contributed by medium-, high-, and super-emitters and test how implementation of
inspection and maintenance programs will affect their emissions. Investigate the variability in
emission rates, (near term)
***Evaluate the "real world" effect of traffic control measures (TCMs) on reducing
emissions for incorporation into prediction models, (long term)
***Analyze existing NMOC and NOX (e.g., NO2, nitrous acid) speciation data to
determine how well it represents emissions for important modes of vehicle operation. Develop
new speciation data for "real world" emissions where existing data has gaps. This work can be
integrated with other programs, (near term)
Strategic Activity 2:
Emission Inventories for Stationary Area Sources and Point Sources (Done in concert with
the Modeling Team)
Goals: Develop new stationary area source and point source models or methodologies that
are capable of estimating emission from all significant sources (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4c and 5).
Background: Stationary source categories include solvent usage, oil and gas industry
operations, etc. The traditional "top-down" approach uses surrogate data for activity level, along
with default spatial and temporal allocation factors and emission factors, to estimate emissions.
This approach relies on information which may be out of date, of unknown accuracy, and never
have been assessed by independent methods. Reports of emissions by major point sources may
contain day-specific activity levels, but are often based on average emission factors. New or
refined methods are needed for research-grade emission inventories. Better temporal, spatial, and
chemical resolution of emissions, as well as knowledge of emissions for "event days" is also
needed.
Major Tasks: ***Lnprovement of Data Analysis Methodologies
Develop improved statistical methods for the purpose of emission estimation. Specific
areas of concern include: 1) identification of the distribution of the data and the appropriate
method of combining these data with parameters having other distributions; 2) treatment of data
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which is recorded as being below the level of quantification or below the level of detection
(censored data); and 3) determination of the minimum number of measurements required for
regressions and analysis of variance techniques, (near term)
***Assinulation of Compliance Data: Title 70 of CFR 40 requires that owners or
operators of all major sources in the U.S. obtain a permit. The regulation requires that permit
facilities submit emission data to the regulatory agencies which proves that they have complied
with all requirements and upon which they will pay the appropriate emission fees. In addition,
the proposed Enhanced Monitoring rules of the U.S. EPA will require all sources which emit 30 %
or more of the amount which constitutes a major source to continuously monitor these emissions.
The goal of this task is to develop a framework which will permit incorporation of these data into
a national emissions inventory. This is a very near term project as implementation of 70 CFR 40
is scheduled for November 1995. (near term)
***Criteria for Development of Emission Factors: Establish a comprehensive guideline
which can be used for the development of emission factors. The guideline will incorporate
experimental design, quality assurance, and data criteria by which one can judge the validity of
emission factors, (near term)
***Unaccounted and New Sources: Recent reviews have indicated that there are a large
number of emission sources which are not included in emission inventories for a variety of
reasons. The goal of this task is to identify such sources and estimate their emissions. The
program is envisioned as a continuing one to permit tracking of new and changing sources.
(ongoing)
***Stationary Area Source Data Inventory: Identify and implement alternate and
surrogate sources of data which can be used for stationary area source emission inventory
development. Such data sources could include such diverse sources as trade organizations, market
surveys, point of sale scanning data, local fuel (gas) distribution systems, etc. (near term)
***Stationary Area Source Data Surveys and Models: The goal of this task is to
conduct surveys for those sources where data is not directly available. The data from the surveys
will be analyzed and incorporated in models to permit evaluating under differing econometric
conditions, (ongoing)
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***Semi-Mechanistic Emission Models: Develop semi-mechanistic emission models for
a range of industries. This novel approach to emission factor determination is required to account
for and anticipate technological improvements, changes of work practices and economics. The
models should be dynamic and flexible, and incorporate our understanding of mechanisms that are
important in determining emission factors. For example, knowledge of NOX formation can be
used to quantify in detail NOX emissions from different types of industrial furnaces with and
without varying degrees of NOX control. The methodologies would be applied to 10 to 15
industries per year. Of the order of 40 professionals will be required, (ongoing)
Strategic Activity 3:
Emission Estimates for Nonroad Mobile Sources (Done in concert with the Modeling
Team)
Goals: Develop new models that are capable of estimating emissions from a wide variety
of nonroad engines in use. Develop new stationary source models or methodologies that are
capable of estimating emission from all significant sources (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4c and 5).
Background: Nonroad mobile sources include some eighty categories of internal
combustion equipment such as construction equipment, agricultural activities, airport operations,
locomotives, marine vessels, pleasure water craft, lawn and garden equipment, etc. A 1991 U.S.
EPA study found that much of the emission test data are incomplete and inadequate.
Major Tasks: ***Evaluate uncertainty of nonroad source emission estimates with an
integrated assessment of datasets used in developing emission and activity factors. Use this
information to prioritize research on specific source categories. Priority is expected to be placed
on pleasure water craft and lawn and garden equipment since they appear to be the biggest
nonroad contributors, (near term)
***Develop improved methodologies or models for nonroad mobile sources. The models
will need independent emission factor and activity modules for various aspects of emissions, (near
term)
***Develop modal emission factors and temporally and spatially resolved activity data for
high priority source categories. Develop NMOC and NOX speciation profiles, (long term)
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Strategic Activity 4:
Natural Emissions Modeling (Done in concert with the Observations and Modeling Teams)
Goals: Develop natural source emission models that are capable of estimating NMOC
(e.g., isoprene, terpene, alcohol, aldehyde, other oxygenated) emissions over the seasonal cycle
including (if applicable) leaf growth, maturation, and recession. Develop models of soil NOX
emissions due to natural processes and agricultural operations (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4c,g and 5).
Background: Emissions of biogenic NMOC may be a controlling factor in ozone
formation in some areas. Uncertainties in biogenic NMOC emission inventories (approximately
a factor of three) are associated with a variety of factors (e.g., plant species, age, meteorology,
stress effects) that can cause dramatic short-term changes in emission rates. In addition, microbial
decomposition of industrial, household, and agricultural waste products may be a source of
oxygenated NMOC. Summertime NOX emission rates from fertilized agricultural fields may
exceed anthropogenic NOX emissions in some midwestern states, although uncertainties are also
estimated to be roughly a factor of three.
Major Tasks: ***Vegetative NMOC Emissions: Conduct field and laboratory studies
of NMOC emissions from agricultural, urban, and natural landscapes. The purpose of these
studies will be to develop and improve NMOC emission estimates and assess their accuracy.
Model components that require investigation include emission factors, emission algorithms, source
distributions, and driving variables (e.g., light, temperature), (ongoing)
***Natural NOX Emissions: Conduct field and laboratory studies of NOX emissions from
agricultural, urban, and natural soils and from lightning. The purpose of these studies will be to
develop and improve NO^ emission estimates and assess their accuracy. Model components that
require investigation include emission factors, emission algorithms, source distributions, and
driving variables (e.g., fertilizer application rates, soil type, soil moisture, temperature,
chemistry, vegetation cover), (ongoing)
***Other Natural NMOC Emissions: Screening studies are required to assess the
importance of NMOC emissions from disturbed vegetation (e.g., lawn mowing, timber and crop
harvesting, biomass burning), microbial decomposition (e.g., landfills), and geogenic sources.
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Emission models will be developed and evaluated for those sources determined to be significant.
(ongoing)
***Long-Tenn Changes in Natural Emissions: Changes in climate or land use may have
a significant effect on natural NMOC and NOX emissions. Research is needed to assess potential
changes and their impact on emissions, (ongoing)
Strategic Activity 5:
Independent Assessment of Emission Inventories (Done in concert with the Observations
and Modeling Teams)
Goals: Corroborate emission inventories with independent estimates of emissions and
evaluate the effectiveness of reformulated gasoline, enhanced inspection and maintenance, and
other control programs to verify emission model estimates (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4c/and 5).
Background: Large uncertainties often exist in emission inventories. Only by measuring
levels of ozone precursors in ambient air can these inventories be confirmed. Approaches for
independent assessments of emission inventories include: (1) tunnel studies and other roadway
measurements; (2) spatial and temporal comparisons of ambient and emission inventory
NMOC/NOX and CO/NOX ratios; (3) comparisons of long-term trends in ambient pollutant
concentrations and concentration ratios with emission inventory trends; (4) source apportionment
of NMOG speciation profiles with receptor modeling; and (5) tracer and flux measurements.
Previous studies have focused on mobile sources, but nonroad area sources and stationary sources
deserve equal attention. However, efforts to study nonroad area sources and stationary sources
have been hampered by the dominance of mobile sources at most monitoring sites and the lack of
measurements of key NMOC species associated with stationary sources. The planned introduction
of reformulated gasoline and the implementation of enhanced inspection and maintenance
programs provide unique opportunities to observe and measure cause and effect relationships
between emissions and atmospheric concentrations of pollutants.
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Major Tasks: ***Analyze existing data to assess current emission inventories in urban
areas of North America. Compare a variety of approaches, including tunnel and remote sensing
studies, ambient ratio comparisons, and receptor modeling. Conduct field studies and sensitivity
analyses to determine to what extent local determination of source fingerprints improves source
reconciliation accuracy, (near term)
***Evaluate and improve assessment techniques, (near term)
***Conduct field studies before and after implementation of major control programs (e.g.,
reformulated gasoline, enhanced inspection and maintenance) in different areas of North America
in order to compare the observed effect on air quality with emission inventory projections, (near
term)
***Design and execute field studies to evaluate the accuracy of stationary source NMOC
emission inventories. Possible approaches include receptor modeling, "tracers of opportunity,"
upwind and downwind measurements, and other techniques that rely on ambient data. Develop
and test the approach for one city. After testing and validation for one city, expand to other cities
with different stationary source characteristics, (near term)
***Conduct periodic tunnel and street canyon studies to reconcile mobile source emission
inventories and to track progress. Use tunnels or street canyons representing different mixes of
fleet and driving conditions, (long term)
***Analyze the results from the studies described above to set priorities for further work
to reduce the most important uncertainties in emission inventories, (long term)
***Upgrade the hydrocarbon channel and develop NOX and temperature channels for
remote sensing devices used for on-road monitoring of mobile source emissions. Validate the
remote sensing devices under a variety of vehicle operating conditions, (near term)
***Determine the source(s) of the large amount of uninventoried whole gasoline found in
ambient air. Perform a mass balance on all sources of gasoline in Los Angles, attempting to
account for losses during production, storage, distribution, marketing, and combustion. Consider
adding tracers at different points along the fuel cycle to verify the mass balance results, (near
term)
***Quantify uncertainty in all emissions estimates, (ongoing)
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Strategic Activity 6:
Emission Projections (Done in concert with the Modeling Team)
Goals: Project the effects of future activity and alternative controls on emission estimates
(contributes to addressing Science Concerns 3b, 4cand5).
Background: The U.S. EPA's Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) projects
regional economic growth for each of the 30 current multi-state ozone nonattainment areas in the
United States. The EGAS uses macroeconomic forecasts as a basis for developing the regional
economic growth forecasts. The Multiple Projections System (MPS) is a another U.S. EPA
product that adjusts baseline emission inventories for emission controls and for growth in the
regional economy forecasted by EGAS. Both these systems need to be maintained.
Major Tasks: ***Develop regional economic models for ozone nonattainment areas,
including maintenance and annual forecasts, (ongoing)
***Maintain existing U.S. EPA forecasting capability for stationary sources, (ongoing)
***Develop emission control reduction factors for alternative emissions control systems
and keep the file updated as new technologies are developed, (ongoing)
***Develop emission control technology degradation factors for alternative technologies.
(ongoing)
***Develop interfaces for integrating emissions projection models into the MODELS-3
modeling system, (ongoing)
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APPENDIX A
NARSTO LIAISON TEAMS REPORT
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NARSTO LIAISON TEAMS REPORT
The North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) has been
developed in response to the recommendation of a scientific committee of the National Academy
of Sciences that significant "rethinking of the ozone problem in urban and regional air pollution"
is essential to development of effective strategies for management of ozone near the ground during
the remainder of this century and beyond.
At earlier planning meetings for NARSTO, the decision was made that the NARSTO
program should:
• Concentrate its research and assessment efforts (and its financial and intellectual
resources) mainly on improving scientific and public understanding of the
chemical, meteorological , and precursor-emissions processes that lead to
accumulation of ozone in the atmosphere near the ground and offer insights to
management options for its control,
• Leave to other research communities the challenges of improving scientific and
public understanding of two other aspects of the ozone problem:
Effects of ozone on human health, crops, forests, and engineering
materials, and
Control technologies by which emissions of ozone precursor chemicals can
be decreased, and
• Build-in a separate yet connected means for aiding the consideration of policy and
management approaches by which leaders in industry and government can help
decrease the harmful effects of ozone on society.
Accordingly, a NARSTO Liaison coordination function was established to develop and
maintain organizational procedures, communication mechanisms, and decision-making
mechanisms by which the ozone research and assessment activities within the NARSTO program
can be closely linked and integrated with research, assessment and policy and management
activities outside the NARSTO program.
These important and associated activities are conducted by the following communities of
scientists and policy analysts:
• Ozone-Effects Community,
• Control-Technology Community, and
• Ozone Management and Policy Community.
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At the June 1994 planning meeting for NARSTO, the following mission statement for the
NARSTO Liaison Teams was recommended.
The Mission of the NARSTO Liaison Teams is to ensure that the
knowledge generated in NARSTO and in the ozone-effects, control-technology,
and ozone management and policy communities is drawn together and
distributed so it can be used to manage the tropospheric ozone problems in
various regions of North America.
The representatives of all three communities that will remain outside of NARSTO also
recommended at the June 1994 NARSTO Planning Meeting, that careful steps should be taken
during the formative years of the NARSTO program (1994-1996) to accomplish the following six
initial objectives of the NARSTO Liaison Teams:
1) Define what research and assessment activities are included (and what activities are
not included) in the Ozone-Effects, Control-Technology, and Ozone Management
and Policy Communities;
2) Identify leading persons within the Ozone-Effects, Control-Technology, and Ozone
Management and Policy Communities (or appropriate sectors within each of these
communities) who are able, willing, and interested to provide the quality of
technical, scientific, and policy-relevant insight and leadership, and the quality of
communications necessary to insure effective liaison between each community and
NARSTO as a whole and the other relevant NARSTO Teams in particular
(especially the Analysis and Assessment Team, Emissions Team, Modeling Team,
Observations Team, and Organization and Management Team);
3) Define organizational procedures, timetables, and communication and decision-
making mechanisms by which effective liaison between the Ozone-Effects,
Control-Technology, and Ozone Management and Policy Communities and
NARSTO itself (or specific NARSTO Teams within NARSTO) can be established,
maintained, and adjusted over the projected 10+ year life-time of NARSTO;
4) Identify whatever specific research and assessment tasks should be undertaken
jointly by the Ozone-Effects, Control-Technology, and Ozone Management and
Policy Communities (or specific sectors within each community) and NARSTO,
either as a whole, or through cooperation with one or more of the other NARSTO
Teams;
5) Identify specific mechanisms for accomplishing desirable technology transfer under
the NARSTO program for:
a. Research and assessment findings developed within NARSTO and its
several NARSTO Teams, and
b. Research and assessment findings developed within the Ozone-Effects,
Control-Technology, and Ozone Management and Policy Communities;
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6) Work with the leadership of NARSTO during the remainder of 1994, and during
1995 and 1996, to bring to the attention of leaders within the Committee on
Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) and its Subcommittee on Air Quality
(SAQ) within the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) of the Office
of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), specific proposals for:
a. Further strengthening the relationships between NARSTO and the Ozone-
Effects, Control-Technology, and Ozone Management and Policy
Communities, with consideration given to potential inclusion of these three
communities in the NARSTO program, and/or
b. Developing effective working relationships between the Ozone-Effects,
Control-Technology, and Ozone Management and Policy Communities
within the construct of the CENR and SAQ.
This sixth objective of the NARSTO Liaison Teams was of particular concern and interest
to representatives of the Ozone-Effects, Control-Technology, and Ozone Management and Policy
Communities at the June 1994 Planning Meeting for NARSTO. The conveners of the June 1994
NARSTO Planning Meeting, pledged their support to work with the NARSTO Liaison Teams to
fulfill this objective (number 6 above). They also indicated that they would use their influence
with the other NARSTO research and assessment planners and members of the CENR and its
SAQ, and thus seek their help, support, and further counsel about fulfilling objective 6. The
conveners made this pledge conditional on the willingness of the Ozone-Effects, Control-
Technology, and Ozone Management and Policy Committees to work effectively within the
NARSTO Liaison Teams during the remainder of 1994, and during 1995 and 1996, while also
working to fulfill the other objectives outlined above (numbers 1-5 above).
The representatives present at the June 1994 Planning Meeting for NARSTO proposed that
the following research groups be formed, activities undertaken, budget support be provided, and
organizational relationships be developed and used during the remainder of 1994, and during 1995
and 1996:
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Ozone-Effects Research Group:
Ozone effects research in the United States, Mexico, and Canada is conducted in three
general areas, all three of which are funded predominantly in public sector laboratories and
cooperating universities:
• Ozone Health Effects Research is funded almost entirely by E PA and cooperating
universities in the United States and by Environment Canada in Canada. Total
funding in 1994 - about $8 million US Dollars and about $1.5 million Canadian
Dollars.
• Ozone Ecological Effects Research (including effects on both agricultural crops and
forest trees) in the United States is funded mainly by the ecological effects research
laboratory of EPA, the U. S. Department of Agriculture including the Agricultural
Research Service and the Forest Service, the Electrical Power Research Institute,
the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the National Park Service of the Department
of Interior. Much of this research is accomplished through grants and contracts
with cooperating research universities in the United States and by Environment
Canada in Canada. Total funding in 1994 - about $3 million US Dollars and
about $0.5 million Canadian Dollars.
• Ozone Materials Effects Research is not currently being conducted by either private
or public sector organizations in the United States, Canada, or Mexico.
One of the most important needs for close coordination of ozone effects research with
NARSTO research is in determining actual exposure characteristics for:
• Various sectors of the human population (urban populations, rural populations,
exercising school children, asthmatics, aging persons, and people in various out-
door professions and recreational environments, etc.);
• Ecological resources (mainly crops, forests, and domestic and wild animals); and
• Engineering materials (mainly rubber products and other elastomers, paints, and
plastics);
as a function of the following variables:
• Attainment areas vs non-attainment areas;
• Areas down-wind and up-wind from such attainment areas and non-attainment
areas;
• Land-use type (remote, urban, near-urban, and rural areas);
• Elevation (monitions, plateau, coastal); and
• Region/ecosystem type (eastern vs western, coastal vs inland areas of various
states, etc.).
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These efforts should be undertaken as joint activities of the Ozone-Effects Research Group
within the NARSTO Liaison Teams and the NARSTO Emissions, Modeling, Observations, and
Analysis and Assessment Teams. The objective of these joint research and assessment activities
should be to learn more about available data bases, information resources, modeling approaches,
and the nature and magnitudes of impacts of ozone and other oxidants near the ground on people,
ecosystems, and engineering materials.
To facilitate development of the above joint research and assessment efforts, the Ozone
Effects Research Group will do the following three things:
1) Send the July 1994 version of the NARSTO Plan to representatives of all sectors
of the ozone-effects research communities of Mexico, Canada, and the United
States requesting input of two types:
a. Identification of specific NARSTO research activities which are relevant to
various sectors of the ozone-effects communities in Mexico, Canada, and
the United States; and
b. Submission of key research and assessment questions from the ozone-effects
research communities which NARSTO and its several NARSTO Teams
could address within the scope of its planned program.
2) On the basis of responses received to these two specific requests, plan and hold a
series of one to three Focused Workshops involving selected participants from the
NARSTO Teams and the public-health effects, ecological-effects, and materials-
effects research communities to identify key policy relevant science questions
which could provide the basis for decisions about research needs, research
approaches, mechanisms for cooperation, and means by which to maintain dialogue
between the ozone-effects community and NARSTO.
3) At the first NARSTO Annual Meeting, present the results of the Focused
Workshops including cross-cutting issues, key policy relevant science questions,
specific recommendations for joint activities, mechanisms for maintaining
cooperation and future communications including both mutually agreed upon or
still contentious issues and recommendations.
4) Maintain throughout the 10+ year long life of NARSTO a continuing dialogue
with NARSTO scientists and engineers, sponsors, and stakeholders, about possible
alternative forms of the primary (public health) and Secondary (public welfare)
standards for ozone in various parts of North America.
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Control Technology Research Group:
Control technology research in the United States is heavily funded by private sector
research organizations such as the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Gas Research
Institute (GRI). Public Sector investments are dominated by the U. S. Department of Energy with
a modest effort also being conducted by the U.S. EPA. The total investment in control
technology research in the United States is about $500 million annually. Most of the ozone
relevant portion of this investment is aimed at decreasing emissions of NOX through modification
of combustion processes and flue-gas-treatment processes in large point sources such as power
plants and large industrial boilers. Relatively smaller investments are made in research on
technologies for decreasing NOX and VOC emissions from motor vehicles, and even smaller
research investments are made on emissions from area sources of NOX and VOC.
The primary mission of the Control Technology Research Group within the NARSTO
Liaison Teams should be to facilitate communication about both research needs in control
technology research and innovative ideas about control technologies that will be effective in
decreasing emissions of ozone precursor chemicals in various parts of Mexico, Canada, and the
United States. This mission will be fulfilled through the following three types of communication:
• Transfer of research and assessment findings from NARSTO to the control
technology communities of the three countries,
• Transfer research and assessment findings from the control technology communities
of each country to researchers with NARSTO, and
• Make sure the benefits of new technologies by which to decrease emissions of
ozone precursors are measurable and well-known within the ozone management
and policy communities of Mexico, Canada, and the United States.
Research initiatives to decrease emissions of NOx and VOC are needed especially from the
following three sources of these ozone precursors:
• Stationary sources, especially industrial boilers,
• Stationary engines and gas turbines,
• Off-road construction equipment and motor vehicles.
Since there is no apparent private-sector champion for research to decrease NOX and VOC
emissions from these three major types of sources, the NARSTO Control Technology Research
Group needs to identify cooperators with sufficient funding to initiate such research and serve as
a catalyst for continued future investment.
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To accomplish these three communications goals and three new research initiatives, the
Control Technology Research Group within the NARSTO Liaison Teams will do the following
things in 1994 and 1995:
1) Send the July 1994 version of the NARSTO Plan to representatives of all
sectors of the control technology research communities of Mexico, Canada,
and the United States and arrange for one-on-one interviews with leaders
of the most important NOx and VOC control technology research programs
in each country. The ultimate goal of these interviews should be to:
a. Describe the benefits of NARSTO research and assessment activities
for the control technology communities of each country, and
b. Foster joint planning of control-technology research and, wherever
it is advantageous to do so, arrange for collaboration and co-
sponsorship of such research.
2) Establish NARSTO newsletter and arrange follow-up meetings, both among
control technology researchers and between NARSTO and control
technology researchers, to facilitate exchange of information about R&D
priorities, budgets, and specific NARSTO and control technology research
or demonstration projects.
3) Encourage cooperation and technology transfer both among control
technology research programs and between these programs and the research
activities being conducted by the Emissions, Modeling, Observations, and
Analysis and Assessment Teams within NARSTO.
The major research organizations performing control technology research and to which the
above three specific efforts should be addressed include the following:
For NOX Emissions:
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
U. S. Department of Energy
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Gas Research Institute
American Gas Association
Institute of Gas Technology
Electric Power Research Institute
Utilities Air Regulatory Group
American Society of Mechanical Engineers
American Institute of Chemical Engineering
Air and Waste Management Association
International Flame Research Foundation
American Flame Research Committee
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Motor Vehicles Manufacturers' Association
Fuels Industry Association
Council of Industrial Boiler Owners
American Boiler Manufacturers' Association
Institute of Clean Air Companies
Portland Cement Association
Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industries
Other private industry associations in Mexico and Canada
Universities
For VOC Emissions:
American Plastics Council
National Printing Inks Association
National Association of Manufacturers
Roof Coatings Manufacturing Association
Chemical Specialties Manufacturing Association
Chemical Manufacturers Association
Halogenated Solvents Industries Association
National Paint and Coatings Association
Corresponding Canadian and Mexican industrial associations.
Ozone Management and Policy Group:
The ozone management and policy communities of Mexico, Canada, and the United States
consists mainly of leaders in the power, transportation, and manufacturing industries of each
country, and leaders in the federal, state or provincial, and municipal governments with specific
responsibility for management of air quality near the ground. The most important groups within
the ozone management and policy community includes the following:
• Leaders in Environment Canada and Mexico,
• Congressional and Parliamentary Committees,
• Officials within the Departments or Ministries of Environment, Energy, and
Commerce,
• National Governors Associations in Mexico, Canada, and the United States,
• National Associations of County and Municipal Governments,
• State and Provincial Environmental Commissioners Associations,
• State and Territorial Air Pollution Prevention Administrators,
• Conferences of State and Provincial Legislators, and
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• National Associations of Regional Councils in Mexico, Canada, and the United
States.
The representatives of this broad community of air-quality managers and policy officials
present at the June 1994 NARSTO Planning Meeting, offered the following recommendations for
actions by the ozone management and policy communities within each country:
1) In 1994 and 1995, an opinion survey should be made within each state, province, or
municipality within each country in North America to determine the following:
a. Alternative forms of the ozone standards maintained by each state, province, or
municipality;
b. Methods used to model and monitor "unacceptable" exposures for human health,
ecological resources, and engineering materials by each state, province, or
municipality;
c. Innovative ozone management approaches currently used (or under consideration)
by each state, province, or municipality including the following:
• Episodic controls based on forecasting of high-ozone events such as:
Curtailment of production,
Traffic management,
Telecommuting,
• Least emissions dispatching in power plants,
• Alternative power production and conservation options,
• Coordinated land-use and traffic planning,
• Etc.
2) During the autumn of 1994, the July 1994 version of the NARSTO Plan should be sent to
air-quality decision makers in industry, legislative and executive departments of
government, and public interest groups within each state and province of North America
with a request for needs for improved scientific and policy information about ozone
accumulation and effects.
3) During 1995 and 1996, conduct an analysis of State or Provincial Implementation Plans
submitted to federal authorities with each country. The objective of this analysis should
be to further refine NARSTO research priorities during the years between 1996 and 2000.
Also, conduct workshops for ozone management and policy groups in various regions of
North America to inform them more fully about current scientific knowledge about ozone
accumulation and effects on human health, ecological resources, and engineering
materials. These Workshops should be developed on the basis of NARSTO biennial state
of knowledge assessments.
4) Develop public outreach educational materials about the ozone pollution problem for use
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in reaching out to both the public at large and to school children whose lives and future
life styles will be affected in both the short and long run both by ozone near the ground
and by ozone management practices and procedures in various parts of North America.
Based on experience acquired through the above four activities, during 1997 and beyond,
develop more effective mechanisms for optimizing interactions between NARSTO research and
assessment activities and contemporary ozone-management approaches in various states,
provinces, and municipalities in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
Technology Transfer Recommendations:
At the June 1994 NARSTO Planning Meeting, the Liaison Committee was also asked to
formulate recommendations for specific mechanisms by which scientific and assessment findings
from the NARSTO research activities and related activities with the ozone-effects, control-
technology, and ozone management and policy communities might be communicated to NARSTO
clientele groups. The following ideas for technology transfer were proposed:
• In conjunction with the Analysis and Assessment Team poll both private-sector and
public-sector decision makers by region to determine:
What policy and scientific questions they want answers to regarding the
chemical, meteorological, biological, transportation, energy use, industrial,
transportation, and recreational processes that lead to accumulation of
ozone near the ground in their regions; and
What human-resource-development and technology-development problems
they foresee in managing ozone near the ground in the remaining years of
this century and the first few decades of the 21st Century.
• In conjunction with the Analysis and Assessment Team, using the results of this
poll, develop an improved set of key policy questions to which NARSTO should
devote its creative energies and talents, including development of state of science
summaries, outlines of knowledge gaps, and research plans and budgets for
NARSTO Teams.
• In conjunction with the Analysis and Assessment Team, develop plans for:
NARSTO Biennial Assessments emphasizing the current state of
knowledge about ozone accumulation near the ground and possibilities for
more effective use of available scientific information in management of
tropospheric ozone in particular and public decision making about air-
quality management general; and
Regionally focused NARSTO Public Biennial Forums with ozone decision
makers, stakeholders in the tropospheric ozone issues, and leaders in public
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interest groups concerned with air-quality management in Mexico, Canada,
and the United States.
The principal purpose of these three general technology-transfer recommendations, and
especially the NARSTO Biennial Assessments and the NARSTO Public Biennial Forums should
be to:
• Report progress in the principal NARSTO research and assessment programs,
• Receive feed-back from ozone decision makers, stakeholders, and public interest
groups concerned with air-quality issues in various regions of North America; and
• Keep NARSTO in tuned with both the long-term and short-term air-quality policy
needs of Mexico, Canada, and the United States.
Place of the NARSTO Liaison Teams in the Organization of NARSTO:
A Coordinator of NARSTO Liaison Activities should be appointed and should report
directly to the NARSTO Management Coordinator and the NARSTO Science and Resource
Planning Group. The duties of the Liaison Coordinator are addressed in the NARSTO Charter.
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ATTACHMENT 1
fARSTO Liaison
Workshops (four altogether) $90,000
Travel (especially by the Control Technology Group) $60,000
Poll of Ozone Decision Makers $80,000
Analysis of Liaison Opportunities $50,000
(Mainly analysis of questionnaires and
interviews with leaders in the Ozone-Effects,
Control-Technology, and Ozone Management
and Policy Communities)
Development and Distribution of NARSTO Newsletter $25,000
Communications and Publications $20,000
Public Education and Outreach $60rQQO
Total (over two years) $3 85,000
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APPENDIX B
REQUIRED RESOURCES, TASK PROTOCOLS, AND
OUTPUTS/DELIVERABLES
Bl ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT
B2 OBSERVATIONS
B3 MODELING
B4 EMISSIONS
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Bl. ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT
Resource Estimates
FY-95
• Complete assessment of results and lessons learned from all major and on-going field
and modeling studies (follow-on from San Diego 1993 meeting). $300K
• Conduct 2 meetings on defining NARSTO assessment concepts and developing
principles and protocols for conducting assessments, with reports from Workshops with
recommendations. $120K
• Develop NARSTO data system requirements and recommendations. $80K
• Begin integrated overview of SIP tools and databases, as they become available $120K
• Dedicated Analysis and Assessment staff-person to coordinate across working teams,
including the liaison teams in-kind or $120K
• Develop comprehensive design for reducing scientific uncertainty and minimizing risk
in the air quality management process $200K
FY-95: $940K
FY-96
• Integrated overview of SIP tools and databases $300K
• Complete data system recommendations $80K
• Conduct 2 Analysis and Assessment meetings $120K
• Dedicated Analysis and Assessment staff-person in-kind or $120K
• Complete comprehensive design for reducing scientific uncertainty and minimizing risk
in the air quality management process $200K
• Develop initial NARSTO assessment protocols $200K
• Conduct Workshop, in conjunction with Liaison Group, with associated communities
(policy and air quality management, effects, control technologies) on developing
linkages and communications plans $70K
FY-96: $1090K
FY-97 and beyond: ~$3M - $5M per year, as assessments begin to be conducted
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B2. OBSERVATIONS
Near-Term:
Strategic Activity 1:
Analysis and Evaluation of Existing Data.
NARSTO should determine the current state of understanding concerning ozone trends and
distribution. (Done in concert with the Analysis and Assessment Team.)
Activity Goal: Determine the current state of understanding concerning ozone and ozone
precursor trends and distribution. (Contributes to answering Science Questions Id-f, 2c-e, 3a,
and 4.)
Major Tasks:1 ***Provide an inventory of quality assured (i.e., retrospective QA/QC) data
sets (in standard units and a standard data base format) that are available and accessible for O3 and
O3-precursors.
***Establish a virtual data center for surface ozone measurements made in Canada,
Mexico, and the United States. The center would provide NARSTO scientists with an on-line
service that would provide ozone distribution and trends for North America. This data base
should also include meteorological data.
***As a follow-up the National Academy of Science Report, "Rethinking the Ozone
Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution," using measurements of O3 and O3-precursors
obtained from various regional studies and monitoring networks, develop peer-reviewed articles
indicating the present scientific understanding of the chemical processes that shape the ozone
distribution in urban and rural areas of Mexico, Canada, and the United States.
***Develop and analysis strategy for use of data to determine processes and improve
emission inventories.
• Undertake additional analysis to determine the influence of meteorological
variables on urban and rural O3 concentration. Statistical regression models should
be used to identify meteorological conditions conducive to O3 accumulation.
• Develop analysis strategies using air concentration data gathered by the regional
studies as a cost-effective means to independently check emission inventories and
understand photochemical pathways.
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Task Protocol:
Gather existing data set for O3 and O3-precursors. Determine measurement time
periods.
Data formatting: There is a need for data in common formats for future datasets.
Determine quality assurance and quality control procedures.
From the data available, provide up-to-date estimates of the reliability and
uncertainty (bias and precision) in historical measurements.
Establish protocol to access data.
Analyze the data and interpret in terms of insights that these data provide in
answering the key scientific questions posed by NARSTO.
NARSTO sponsorship of an international scientific conference to describe the
current understanding of local and regional ozone problems in Mexico, Canada,
and the United States.
Present findings in articles submitted to peer-reviewed scientific journals.
Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and a
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Deliverables:
Peer-review journal articles that indicate the relevance to understanding NARSTO
science questions.
Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
0.4
0.4
1996
0.4
0.4
1997
0.4
0.4
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. These resources are required to support
experts in this field to cover the time they require to gather and quality-assure the data, to
sponsor a scientific conference to describe the results, to present the information at this and
other scientific meetings, write the papers, and pay page charges. Some of this support
will be provided as in-kind contributions of Agencies involved in NARSTO. However,
additional funds will be required to support the participation of experts from the academic,
industrial, and public interest communities.
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Strategic Activity 2:
PAMS review and enhancement.
The U.S. EPA is now beginning the implementation of a network of Photochemical
Assessment Monitoring Sites (PAMS) in selected non-attainment areas for the purpose of
monitoring trends in ozone, nitrogen oxides, and speciated VOCs (Federal Register, Vol. 57, No.
43, March 4, 1992, pp 7687-7690). NARSTO will review current plans for PAMS and then
undertake a series of feasibility studies and short-term field measurements to determine minimum
instrumentation requirements, optimal spatial (vertical and horizontal) and temporal sampling
strategies, and a suitable hierarchy of diagnostic procedures and analyses to be used with the data
from the PAMS network to address the policy-relevant scientific questions listed in the
introduction to this plan. However, regulatory requirements must recognize that adequate skill
level and technology availability are prerequisite to implementation of monitoring network
measurements. (Done in concert with Modeling Team and Analysis and Assessment Team)
Activity Goal: Develop measurement and analysis strategy to enhance and maximize
information and utility of the proposed network of Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Sites
(PAMS). (Contributes to answering Science Questions 1, 2c, and 4a-c, e, g.)
Major Tasks: ***Provide advice for the design and implementation of a data archive for
all PAMS data and derived products.
***Institute annual instrumentation-science course for training of local and state personnel
responsible for implementation and maintenance of PAMS and encourage "monitoring
partnerships" between local and state agencies and academic Centers of Excellence in air quality
monitoring.
***Carry-out blind intercomparisons of measurements of ozone, NO, NOX, and speciated
VOC at selected urban sites using: 1) the proposed PAMS instrumentation and protocols; and
2) research-grade instrumentation and techniques with appropriately trained personnel. Based on
these results, develop instrumentation requirements for PAMS network that will allow the program
to accomplish its goals.
***Obtain observational data for the purpose of determining relative sensitivities of urban
ozone plume to VOCs and NOX emissions.
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***Develop and test a hierarchy of diagnostic procedures and analyses that could make use
of data from a PAMS network and review PAMS sampling strategy to optimize the compatibility
of data-stream with the data input requirements of these diagnostic procedures and analyses.
• Identify analyses and diagnostic applications that will require PAMS data products
and insure that the network will provide these data products.
• Utilize existing data where possible to aid in network assessment and enhancement.
• Carry-out measurements of ozone, NO, NOX, and speciated VOC measurements
in selected urban locations using densely-spaced networks and a complement of
airborne platforms (airplanes, helicopters, sondes, etc.) to determine horizontal and
vertical variability of ozone and precursor species in typical urban settings.
Attention should be given to sampling during non-summer periods. During the
winter meteorological conditions (low temperatures, low incident radiation),
importance of alterative oxidation mechanisms probably aids process verification,
determination of human-made precursor distribution and trends, and biogenic
contribution limitations of those ozone precursors having natural sources or
appearing as photochemical by-products.
• Based on these results, develop spatial and temporal sampling strategies for the
PAMS network that will optimize the scientific output of the network.
***Develop diagnostic tools for the PAMS network based on insights gained from the
above tasks.
***Develop improved data handling approaches. Large quantities of data will emerge
from implementation of routine and comprehensive studies. Data analysis techniques, such as
standard trend analysis, emerging regression methods to extract meteorological influences on data,
and source-apportionment techniques, need to be in hand to provide quick and unequivocal
interpretation of the measurements.
***Establish similar measurement capabilities and sites in Canada and Mexico.
**Begin implementation of improved and enhanced PAMS network based on insights
gained from above tasks. Implement and maintain one or two rural PAMS-level demonstration
sites for instrument research, demonstration, refinement, and instruction. Enhancements to
potentially include: 1) Use of improved instrumentation; 2) Use of airborne measurement
platforms and towers; 3) Expansion of network to include non-urban/rural measurement sites;
4) Measurements of additional chemical species and meteorological parameters; and 5) Other
modifications that would improve utility of data for diagnostic analyses and model evaluation.
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Task Protocol:
Create and use a NARSTO/PAMS Working/Advisory Group to oversee activities.
Provide summer instrumentation-science course for training of local and state
personnel responsible for implementation and maintenance of PAMS.
Establish and operate a prototype PAMS network in conjunction with
comprehensive regional studies.
Deliverables:
Information would be condensed in critical, peer reviewed reports that would
provide analysis of the PAMS network design and implementation and
recommendations for possible incorporation in the network and data-analysis
approaches.
Report containing preliminary position papers -10/95
Minutes of joint effects/atmospheric science workshop - 1/96
Submission of review papers and final report -1/97
Text book describing the operation of targeted instrumentation.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
0.5
0.5
1996
1.0
1.0 + 0.3/site
1997
1.0
1.0 + 0.3/site
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. It is estimated that the specialized
instrumentation that is required to upgrade each PAMS site to the levels required by
NARSTO will cost approximately $0.3M in addition to funds already committed for this
purpose. Beyond this initial cost, the operation, maintenance, data reduction and
interpretation of the additional instrumentation in each PAMS station will cost
approximately $0.3M per year.
Strategic Activity 3:
Network design for monitoring.
Basic inventorying of current monitoring capabilities and the information that is expected
to be obtained from monitoring networks is required to plan effectively for implementing
enhancements to the routine monitoring networks. Because the form of the existing ambient
national air quality standards are highly sensitive to meteorological variations, they have been
criticized as inappropriate metrics for monitoring the effectiveness of ozone abatement strategies.
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NARSTO will cooperate in the design of monitoring networks to track "progress" toward
attainment of air-quality standards that may be required in the future in Canada, Mexico, and the
United States.
This task also recognizes: (a) that fundamental differences exist between monitoring
networks for exposure, regulatory/compliance, and diagnostic air-quality monitoring; (b) that
these differences may vary from region to region and (c) that all three types of monitoring may
be necessary. Hence, this task will identify gaps/weaknesses of existing programs and provide
guidance in improving monitoring networks. Among other criteria to be considered, the improved
monitoring networks must enhance representativeness; provide for non-urban monitoring; add
upper-air chemistry measurements; and add measurements of NOy species and VOCs. (Done in
concert with the Analysis and Assessment Team and in coordination with the Effects program.)
Activity Goal: Develop measurements and monitoring networks, and analyses needed to
establish trends in ozone and its precursors and to shorten the time required to unequivocally
observe a response in ozone and its precursors to mandated reductions in ozone-precursor
emissions. Determine the implications for air-quality monitoring of an improved air-quality
standard for ozone. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 1, 2c, and 4a-c, e, g.)
Major Tasks: **Develop an objective classification system needed to identify the various
types of O3 monitoring stations. Determine the similarities, differences, opportunities and trade-
offs required to undertake adequate programs in exposure, regulatory/compliance, trans-boundary
flow, and diagnostic monitoring of ozone and ozone-precursors.
**Provide support for the formulation of new ozone metrics that are statistically robust and
account for other relevant factors such as the effects of meteorology.
**Determine if potential alternate statistical forms of reporting ozone air quality (both
acute episodic and chronic long-term) will alter the characterization of ozone air quality compared
to the current statistical form of the standards.
**Determine the chemical measurements appropriate to the needs of each network.
**Network design.
Design a meteorological monitoring component that captures the role that
meteorology and dynamics play in the redistribution of airborne chemicals.
In addition to the standard complement of measurements, attention should
be given to determination of solar flux and the dynamical structure of the
boundary layer and lower free troposphere.
-------
Develop a comprehensive plan for quality control and quality assurance of
the data to be acquired from this network.
Determine a criterion to judge how representative ground based
measurements are on various vertical and horizontal scales.
Develop a strategy for determining the optimum location for monitoring
ozone and ozone precursors.
Determine the spatial resolution is needed to properly describe O3
production, accumulation, and consumption on urban and regional scales.
Task Protocol:
Assemble a committee of experts representing the four sections of the NARSTO program,
and representatives of the effects and alternate fuels communities, to evaluate network
requirements.
Formulate preliminary position papers describing: (1) relation between near-surface ozone
concentration and exposure; (2) description of ozone monitoring network that will best
gauge exposure; (4) differences between deployment strategies used to develop appropriate
and cost-effective exposure, regulatory/compliance and diagnostic networks for
monitoring ozone and ozone-precursors; (5) observational approaches; and (6) data
management.
Conduct workshops involving members of the effects, control technology and atmospheric
sciences communities to discuss the best combination of metrics and monitoring programs
needed to achieve the goals of the three communities.
Write peer-reviewed papers describing the approaches, their rationales and limitations, the
options, and trade-offs.
Deliverables:
This information would be condensed in critical, peer-reviewed reports that would
summarize the strengths and weaknesses of existing monitoring networks and past intensive
efforts with recommendations to be implemented in new monitoring networks and data-
analysis approaches and future intensive studies.
Report containing preliminary position papers - 10/95
Minutes of joint effects/atmospheric science workshop - 1/96
Submission of review papers and final report 1/97
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Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
—
0.4
1996
—
0.4
1997
—
0.4
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. These resources cover the time required
to write position papers, to provide the peer review, and to hold a workshop. Some of the
support will be provided as in-kind contributions of Agencies involved in NARSTO.
However, additional funds will be required to support the participation of experts from the
academic, industrial, and public interest communities, travel, and workshop arrangements.
Strategic Activity 4:
Northeastern Scoping Study (Done in concert with Modeling Team and Analysis and
Assessment Team.)
Activity Goal: Provide information that would be of assistance states in the Northeast in
the state implementation planning (SIP) process on attainment of the National air-quality standards
for ozone, and to serve as a nucleus for more intensive studies in future years. Specifically the
task will provide information that could be used: (1) to aid in the selection of algorithms for
simulating the evolution of the mixed layer during ozone episodes; (2) to characterizing the import
of ozone and precursors across boundaries of the modeling domains; (3) to scale the
concentrations of reactants and products at downwind non urban locations, and (4) to assess the
importance of deviations between simulated with observed concentrations of ozone precursors in
non-urban areas. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 1, 2c, and 4a-c, e, g.)
Major Tasks: ***Review existing data taken from state air quality and acid rain research
programs. Develop a retrospective quality control and quality assurance plan by assessing the
merit of given data. Provide an inventory of quality assured data sets (in standard units and a
standard data base format) that are available for O3 and O3-precursors in the Northeast.
** *Implement ^3 maintain PAMS-level sites in the Northeast for instrument research,
demonstration, refinement, and instruction. Enhancements to potentially include: 1) use of
improved instrumentation; 2) use of airborne measurement platforms and towers; 3) expansion
of network to include non-urban/rural measurement sites; 4) measurements of additional chemical
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species and meteorological parameters; and 5) other modifications that would improve utility of
data for diagnostic analyses and model evaluation.
***Design short and long-term field studies to understand the factors that control ozone
accumulation in the Northeast.
"""Implement short term studies.
Measurements of upper air meteorology. Will provide data on wind
direction, wind speed, shear, and mixing height throughout the atmosphere.
Measurements will be made at several selected locations. The data from
these locations will be combined with other related meteorological data in
deriving the evaluation of the mixed layer during ozone episodes.
Surface measurements of O3, NO, NOy, VOCs, and meteorology.
Measurements will be made at selected locations. The data from these
locations will be combined with other related air quality data to determine
how ozone concentrations relate to VOC and NOX emissions in this region.
Aircraft measurements of O3, NO, NOy, VOCs, and meteorology. Will
determine the spatial distribution of upwind boundary concentrations and
assess the amount of interurban transport and photochemical processing
during ozone episodes.
Task Protocol:
• Assemble observations in an accessible data archive that also includes other
available and quality-specified observations that have been obtained in the
Northeast Transport Region (NTR).
• Check the concentration of modeled emissions inputs of precursors with respect to
the NOy/VOC ratios for rural areas in addition to the urban areas already being
evaluated.
• Use air meteorological data obtained at coastal and central locations to aid in the
selection of computational algorithms that can most closely simulate the evolution
of the mixed kyer in the Northeastern transit region during ozone episodes. This
includes the identification of meteorological regimes and synoptic flow patterns
associated with ozone exceedances.
• Measure NOy and VOCs in rural areas and compare with similar measurements in
urban areas.
• Add rural ozone data to those available mainly for urban areas.
• Provide information at boundary and receptor locations that could be used to check
estimates used in describing chemical composition and transport conditions at
regional boundaries.
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Deliverables:
Develop peer-reviewed articles indicating the present scientific understanding of
the chemical processes that shape the ozone distribution in urban and rural areas
of the Northeast.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
0.3
0.4
1996
0.7
2.6
1997
0.7
2.6
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. The largest estimated funds was directed
to the implementation of the near-term scoping study. This task is initially given a second
level priority. It is presumed that if a successful design for the study can be completed this
task will also be given the highest priority.
Strategic Activity 5:
Continue existing/ongoing regional field studies.
Activity Goal: Better understand, further identify, isolate, and explain the fundamental
physical, chemical, and meteorological processes responsible for ozone accumulation on local and
regional scales in North America. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 2; 4)
Major Tasks: ***Develop a quantitative estimate of the role of vertical mixing in the
redistribution of compounds between the boundary layer and the free troposphere, (underway)
***Obtain a quantitative estimate of the exchange of ozone and ozone precursors between
urban and rural areas, (underway)
***Determine the physical and chemical processes that determine the importance of point-
source emissions to: (1) urban air-quality; (2) rural air-quality, (underway)
***Determine the relative contribution of biogenic and anthropogenic NOX and VOCs to
O3 formation in urban and rural areas in various areas of North America, (underway)
***Determine the identities of the natural and anthropogenic sources of NOX and VOCs
and, where possible, estimate the emission of VOCs and NOX from these sources through 14C
measurements, chemical mass balance, principal component analysis and other receptor models,
diagnostics and analyses, (underway)
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***Promote development of observational based models (OEMs) and emission based
models (EBMs). (underway)
***Provide a retrospective assessment of the problems and failures of existing regional
studies to serve as additional guidance in formulating future field programs, (underway)
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
?
7
1996
?
7
1997
7
?
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. Although the tasks described within this
strategic activity are of highest priority it is not possible at this time to estimate how much
additional funds will be required to allow these regional studies to successfully complete
their activities.
Long-Term:
Strategic Activity 1:
Development of techniques for routine measurement.
At present the measurement of CO, VOCs and NOx/NOy are not routine and the skill
required to make these measurement is limited to the scientists who have participated in the
development of the current capabilities. In addition, the protocol that determines when and where
the measurements of these compounds would satisfy a particular monitoring requirement has not
been established.
Activity Goal: Develop adequate "routine" sampling techniques for monitoring CO,
VOCs, NOx/NOy, and meteorology from surface locations and, where needed, above the surface.
(Contributes to answering Science Questions lc,d, 2e, and 4f. Done in concert with the Modeling
Team and the Analysis and Assessment Team.)
Major Tasks: **Determine capabilities of current technology for precise and accurate
routine measurements for speciated VOC, H2O2, NO, NO2, and NOy in urban and rural
environments. Current techniques used for the routine measurement of these compounds are non-
specific and lack the necessary sensitivity or selectivity. For example, the current reference
method for NO lacks the sensitivity required to measure NO in the non-urban atmosphere and for
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NOX lacks sufficient specificity. The measurement of H2O2 is currently done only by research
grade instruments that have not yet been critically evaluated by intercomparison. In addition, all
presently available methods to measure VOCs are labor intensive and limit the number of
measurements that can be made. Reliable data for NOx, and VOCs are not sufficiently extensive,
accurate and/or precise to define background conditions or establish robust photochemical
relationships for either rural or urban areas. If atmospheric chemistry is to be better understood
and the sources of these compounds are to be identified and better quantified, accurate and reliable
measurement techniques with simple operating principles must be developed.
**A capability for atmospheric profiling of O3, NO2, NOy, CO, VOCs, H2O and aerosols
must be developed. Routine measurements of vertical profiles of these compounds may be
required at some sites. The profiles, using lofted instruments or ground-based sounders, should
provide more detailed information concerning the structure of the atmosphere and the distribution
of these compounds through the planetary boundary layer into the free troposphere.
**Develop and test methods for precise and accurate routine measurements of photolysis
rates of NO2, H2CO, and O3.
**Develop and test methods for precise and accurate routine measurements used for
meteorological profiling.
**Develop methods to calibrate and audit these measurements and develop and maintain
low-concentration calibration standards.
**Develop methods for short turnaround/real-time data handling and visualization of
monitoring network data via telemetry or internet links.
Task Protocol:
• Use the NARSTO/PAMS Working/Advisory Group to advise on instrument
improvements that will be needed for routine measurements.
• Solicit proposals for the development of straight-forward, simple, reliable
techniques to measure speciated VOC, H2O2, NO, NO2, and NOy in urban and
rural environments.
• Deploy, test and validate methods for profiling O3, CO, H2O and aerosols.
• Deploy, test and validate methods used for meteorological and dynamical profiling.
• Develop methods to calibrate these measurements and develop and provide low-
concentration calibration standards.
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Deliverables:
Provide a quality-assured approach for calibration for the critical chemical
measurements.
Provide the necessary reliable low-concentration calibration standards.
Peer-review journal articles that indicate the relevance to understanding NARSTO
science questions.
Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
—
0.5
1996
—
0.5
1997
—
0.5
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. The estimates include the allocations to
defray the expenses required to undertake joint field testing and validation (informal
intercomparisons) of any two techniques mentioned above and to meet and discuss the
results.
Strategic Activity 2:
Development of techniques for process studies.
Identifying the chemical mechanisms involved in ozone formation as well as testing the
analytical models used to predict rural ozone distributions require the development of new
instrumentation to measure the key species. The development of reliable techniques for in-situ
measurement of nitric acid, H^, oxygenated VOCs and odd-hydrogen free radicals (specifically,
OH and HO2), long-path measurements of O3 and aerosols, and fast response measurements of
CO, NOX, and NOy should receive the highest priority.
Activity Goal: To develop techniques that will provide: (1) comprehensive chemical and
meteorological input for air-quality models (OEM and EBM) that test possible control strategies;
(2) comprehensive chemical information to evaluate how well models simulate atmospheric
processes; and (3) the ability to test whether models can: (a) accurately simulate the key species
(peroxy radicals) that control the speed of the chemistry; (b) the micro-, meso-, and synoptic scale
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meteorological processes that control the transport and mixing of ozone and ozone-precursors in
the atmosphere. (Contributes to answering Science Questions lc,d, 2c,e, and 4f)
Major Tasks: ***To obtain an adequate emissions data base for concentrations of
compounds typically found near sources or during aircraft measurements, faster response
measurement techniques (measurement tune 10 second or less) for NOX, NOy, CO, and O3 must
be developed. Development should aim to reduce the size, weight, and power needs of these
instruments that have been successfully operated at the surface, and to allow a comprehensive suite
of chemical and meteorological measurement to be made from airborne platforms.
***Sponsor unbiased evaluation and intercomparison of critical instrumentation and
techniques.
***Develop reliable measurement techniques for oxygenated VOCs. In this regard, the
carbonyls are a family of compounds that are produced by atmospheric oxidation of hydrocarbons.
Formaldehyde is of special interest, since it is thought to be the most copiously produced of the
carbonyls and, as such, is a significant intermediary in the formation of short-lived oxidizing free
radicals. Since H2CO photolyzes at longer wavelengths than O3, H2CO may play a particularly
significant role in controlling atmospheric photochemistry in the spring and fall, and has the
potential to determine whether ozone exceedances can occur during those seasons. In addition,
the prominence of the carbonyls, and in particular formaldehyde, may increase substantially in
the future, since these compounds can be the major byproducts of some alternative automotive
fuels. However, at present there are no fully validated methods available for the accurate in-situ
measurement of these compounds in the atmosphere.
***Develop new techniques or approaches to measure NO3, HONO, and HNO3. The
nitrate radical, NO3, represents an important intermediate in the formation of nitric acid at night,
and acts as an oxidant during non-sunlit periods. Currently, there is no in-situ measurement
technique to measure the concentration of this compound. Nitrous acid, HONO, may play an
important role in the initiation of photochemistry in polluted atmospheres. At present there is no
adequate technique for the measurement of HONO. Nitric acid plays a critical role in the transport
of reactive nitrogen in the atmosphere. However, there are lingering concerns regarding the
capabilities of present measurement techniques to adequately measure the concentration of nitric
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acid in the atmosphere. New techniques or approaches to measure nitric acid should be
developed.
***Develop and deploy techniques to measure odd-hydrogen radicals. The chemistry in
the atmosphere is driven by odd-hydrogen free radicals. Adequate testing of ozone production
mechanisms awaits the development and deployment of techniques to measure these radicals.
***Develop and validate LIDAR measurement techniques for O3 and aerosols. High
resolution continuous profiles of ozone are needed to examine source-sink mechanisms,
particularly those involving vertical mixing between surface and elevated sources. In addition,
such measurement methods can provide the means to determine budgets, as well as thoroughly
characterize boundary layer/free troposphere exchange.
***Develop long-path measurements for O3, NO2, H2CO, H2O2, SO2, and O3, and OH.
**Develop and validate instruments for meteorological profiling.
***Develop calibration and audit procedures to be used with these techniques.
***Develop techniques to measure the heterogeneous uptake, processing and revaporization
of trace chemical species by clouds and background aerosol.
**Develop improved statistical methods to evaluate the performance of existing chemical
measurements.
Task Protocol:
• Carry out intercomparisons of the techniques to measure carbonyls including
CH2O, H2O2,
• Solicit proposals for the development of methods to measure alcohols, organic
acids and HNO3.
• Field test and validate fast response measurement techniques for NOX, NOy, CO
and O3 that are suitable for aircraft applications.
• Solicit proposals for the development of techniques to measure odd-hydrogen
radicals including calibration procedures.
• Field test and validate instruments for meteorological and dynamical profiling.
Detiverables:
• Peer-review journal articles that indicate the relevance to understanding NARSTO
science questions.
• Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
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Provide a quality-assured approach for calibration for the critical chemical
measurements.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
3.2
4.0
1996
3.2
4.0
1997
3.2
4.0
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. The estimates include the allocations to
defray the expenses required to undertake joint field testing and validation (informal
intercomparisons) of techniques mentioned above and the cost of holding meetings to
discuss the results.
Strategic Activity 3:
Observation-based emission inventory evaluation.
A better understanding of the relation among human-made sources and between human-
made and natural sources in determining local and regional air-quality is needed. This is required
so that effective controls can be designed and efficiency maximized, avoiding over-regulation and
the accompanying loss of economic competitiveness. In order to develop effective regional
control strategies for ozone, the relation of the principal human-made and natural sources of VOCs
and NOX to the atmospheric concentrations of these compounds must be established.
Measurement of VOCs and NOx in conjunction with appropriate tracer or fingerprint compounds
can identify the sources of the ozone precursors and indicate the amount of those precursors
emitted by those sources. Correlation of ozone with this information coupled with other
diagnostic, observational-based analysis can indicated the influences of these sources on the
production of ozone. (Done in parallel with the Emissions Team.)
Activity Goal: Perform air concentration measurements to improve emissions inventories
for ozone-related chemicals. (Contributes to answering Science Questions IbJ, 4a, and
4a,b,eJ,g.)
Major Tasks: ***Determine the relative contribution of natural/biogenic and
anthropogenic NOX and VOCs to O3 formation in urban and rural areas in various areas of North
America.
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***Determine the identities of the natural/biogenic and anthropogenic sources of NOX and
VOCs and, where possible, estimate the emission of VOCs and NOX from these sources through
14C measurements, chemical mass balance, principal component analysis, and receptor models,
diagnostics, and analyses.
***Develop tracers to indicate origin of air-mass (i.e., upper atmospheric, stratospheric,
marine, continental, etc.)
**Provide database and analysis methods suitable for use in the development of
observational based models (OEMs) and emissions based models (EBMs).
Task Protocol:
• Measurement strategies, such as chemical mass balance and principal component
analysis, along with more accurate and precise measurements of NOX and VOCs
will be used to verify the emission estimates of NOX and VOCs.
• These measurements should be made in connection with comprehensive studies
described below (c.f., Strategic Activity 6).
• Analyze the data and interpret in terms of insights that these data provide in
answering the key scientific questions posed by NARSTO.
• Present findings in articles submitted to peer-reviewed scientific journals.
• Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and a
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Deliverables:
• Peer-review journal articles that indicate the relevance to understanding NARSTO science
questions.
• Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and bibliography
of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
0.5
0.5
1996
0.5
1.0
1997
0.5
1.0
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. The estimates include the allocations to
defray the expenses required to interpret existing atmospheric concentration measurements
and develop new analysis approaches to extract emissions data from atmospheric
measurements. A focused study of emission inventories should be done in connection with
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NARSTO field intensives or monitoring activities. Additional funding is also suggested
to help interpret the measurements.
Strategic Activity 4:
Observational based modeling development.
Because of the complexities and non-linearties inherent in the processes that cause the
accumulation of ozone, a robust understanding of these processes and their interactions requires
the availability of multiple, independent approaches. Toward this end, NARSTO will augment
the traditional "emissions-based, gridded model approach" typically adopted in air quality studies,
with observation-based approaches; i.e., analyses that use atmospheric measurements to
diagnostically derive information and gain insights of relevance to NARSTO goals. These
observation-based analyses might be used to 1) Infer temporal and spatial trends in ozone and
precursors; 2) Separate meteorological and chemical forcing factors;3) Evaluate, test, and derive
emissions inventories; 4) Infer key precursor species driving local and regional ozone production;
5) Test photochemical mechanisms; and 6) Diagnose degree of NOx-limitation or VOC-limitation
in local ozone production.
Activity Goal: Develop and test a hierarchy of observation-based analyses and models that
use field observations and data to diagnostically address the science questions identified for
NARSTO. (Contributes to answering Science Questions la,b,d.f; 2a,d; 3a; 4)
Major Tasks: ***Develop inventory of observation-based analysis and model development
in use and under development.
***Identify existing observationally-derived data sets that might be used to evaluate and
compare results of different observation-based analyses and more traditional emissions-based
approaches.
***Compare observation-based and emission-based approaches for consistency and
precision. On the basis of these findings, develop basic protocol for integrating results of
observation-based and emissions-based approaches as a means of assessing the robustness of
findings.
***Apply observation-based and emission-based models to other data sets as appropriate.
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Task Protocol:
Measurement strategies utilizing key indicator species or ratios of key species
and/or groups of specie along with accurate and precise measurements of those
species will be used to advance the understanding of ozone production and/or to
verify the emission estimates. This analysis should be carried out in conjunction
with the monitoring and measurement activities described elsewhere in this section
(Near-Term, Strategic Activity 2; Long-Term, Strategic Activity 6).
Analyze the data and interpret in terms of insights that these data provide in
answering the key scientific questions posed by NARSTO. This includes the
effects of meteorological patterns and the metric used to judge ozone-related air
quality.
Present findings in articles submitted to peer-reviewed scientific journals.
Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and a
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Dettverables:
The scientific findings related to the ozone air-quality problems in Mexico, the
United States and Canada will be condensed in critical, peer reviewed review
papers and manuscripts. The focus of these publications will be the new
understanding and information provided by NARSTO research in answering the
key scientific questions posed by NARSTO.
Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
0.5
0.5
1996
1.0
1.0
1997
1.0
1.0
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. The estimates include the allocations to
defray the expenses required to develop new approaches to develop and verify
observational approaches and to identify indicator species, species ratio, and/or groups of
species. In addition, resources are allocated to provide focused planning and interpretation
of ground and airborne measurements done in connection with NARSTO comprehensive
field studies or monitoring activities.
Strategic Activity 5:
Determine deposition/removal.
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Develop field program to improve the understanding of the physical, chemical, and
biological processes that control ozone and precursor deposition, and incorporate the
representation of these processes into atmospheric models.
Activity Goal: Determination of the chemical and physical process that control the loss of
ozone and ozone precursors near the surface. (Contributes to answering Science Questions Id-f,
2c-e, 3a, and 4.)
Major Tasks: ***Measure the deposition of O3 and NO2 as needed for model development
and simulations. Determine the types of terrain that need to be studied to provide for the
formulation of representative deposition algorithms.
**Develop improved techniques for measuring deposition rates of ozone and ozone
precursors including the role of wetted surfaces in accelerating the loss of ozone and turbulent
exchange in areas of inhomogeneous surface cover. Studies of NO2, PAN, CH2O, and H2O2, will
provide the first direct indications of how much the surface loss (at night, especially) removes
these species from the atmospheric pool. Later studies should focus on odd-hydrogen radical
deposition.
"""Understand the dominant processes that control the uptake of ozone and its precursors
by vegetation.
Task Protocol:
• Identify of the important ozone-precursor NOy compounds (NO2 and peroxy acetyl
nitrate - PAN) and the VOCs (CH2O, other carbonyls, H2O2, and the principal
organic peroxides) that are surface-deposited, but insufficiently characterized.
• Develop and validate flux measurement techniques for these compounds.
• Carry out these measurement in concert with the comprehensive field studies
described below (c.f., Strategic Activity 6)
• Analyze the data and interpret in terms of insights that these data provide in
answering the key scientific questions posed by NARSTO.
• Present findings in articles submitted to peer-reviewed scientific journals.
• Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and a
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Detiverables:
• Peer-review journal articles that indicate the relevance to understanding
NARSTO science questions.
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Inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
0.2
0.6
1996
0.2
0.6
1997
0.2
0.6
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. The estimates include allocations defray
the expenses required to develop new approaches needed to determine deposition of the
targeted compounds. It is assumed that focused studies of deposition processes will be done
in concert with NARSTO comprehensive field studies or monitoring activities. Additional
funds are allocated to help interpret these measurements.
Strategic Activity 6:
Design and implementation of comprehensive field studies.
Develop (i) a detailed "real-world" understanding of the physical, chemical, and
meteorological processes responsible for ozone formation and (ii) incorporate these observations
into mathematical models that can simulate the fate of compounds emitted into the atmosphere for
the temporal and spatial scales of interest. In addition, these measurements will provide the data
bases required for model evaluation. The research will involve a comprehensive suite of ground
based chemical measurements, aircraft and tower measurements of key compounds using fast
response instruments, and height profiles of the dynamical properties of the PEL and lower free
troposphere using boundary layer radars. Comparison of results obtained from measurements
made in different locations and seasons will identify processes that determine the regional
distribution of ozone and its precursors and will assess how well models can simulate them.
Avenues for additional research will be identified. (Done in concert and in parallel with the
Modeling, Analysis and Assessment, and Emissions Teams.)
Activity Goal: To provide comprehensive field measurement data sets to support:
1) evaluation and development of emission-based models; 2) evaluation and development of
observation based models; 3) evaluation of natural/biogenic and anthropogenic budgets; and
4) understanding of the fundamental chemical and physical processes that shape the atmosphere.
(Contributes to answering Science Questions 2; 4)
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Objectives: This research will be done through a sequence of comprehensive field studies
done at a number of locations throughout North America. The objectives of the research are:
• Determine the role and relative importance of photochemical initiators (O3, H2CO,
PAN, HONO, etc.) on the photochemical production of O3 in rural and urban areas
for various regions of North America.
• Develop a quantitative estimate of the role of vertical mixing in the redistribution
of compounds between the boundary layer and the free troposphere.
• Obtain a quantitative estimate of the exchange of ozone and ozone precursors
between urban and rural areas.
• Estimate the computational errors attendant to model simulations in regions having
significant sub-grid scale sources of 03-precursor emissions. (Done in concert
with "Chemistry and Modeling.")
• Determine the physical and chemical processes that determine the importance of
point-source emissions to: (1) urban air-quality; (2) rural air-quality.
• Understand the effect of the complex transport associated with the interface
between the continental and marine boundary layers on regional and hemispheric
ozone pollution.
• Since comprehensive studies provide as significant data base, they can serve as a
test bed to implement innovative measurement methodologies and strategies (see
Strategic Activity 7)
• Understand how different meteorological regimes constrain ozone accumulation
and design field program that capture these regimes.
Major Tasks: ***Determine study priorities; identify location and tuning; determine the
size of the region required to fully realize the science goals; determine the length of time required
to achieve the science objectives; determine resources required to carry out the study. (Note:
Several studies have been suggested and are enumerated below. There may be others.)
**Northeastern United States/Eastern Canada. Provide up-to-date, comprehensive data
bases aimed at improving regional/local emission inventories and supporting model application
in the Northeastern United States and Eastern Provinces of Canada.
• Study the evolution of a regional pollution event as it passes from the Midwest or
the Southeast to and, subsequently, through the urban-matrix of the Northeast.
• Determine the export of ozone and ozone precursors from the Northeastern United
States to the Maritime Provinces of Canada.
*Dallas Study. Elucidate the photochemistry in a region that is poor in natural VOCs but
a more significant source of anthropogenic/biogenic NOX.
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*Midwest United States/ Ontario-Quebec Corridor. Determine the factors that control
the export of ozone and ozone precursors from the Midwestern United States into the southeastern
provinces of Canada and the impact of the compounds on Canadian air quality.
*Mexico City. Initiate regional-scale field studies in Mexico aimed at improving our
understanding of the processes that control the accumulation of ozone in Mexico (especially
Mexico City).
"Mexico/Southwestern United States. Examine the impact of trans-border transport of
ozone and ozone precursors on the air quality of Mexico and the United States and the impact of
economic expansion within Mexico upon its air quality and the air quality of the southern United
States.
Task Protocol:
• Each major regional study should be carried out on a schedule that requires
approximately four years. The first year is devoted to: (1) planning and
coordination; and development of ground level monitoring stations. The second
year provides: (1) for scoping studies of chemistry and meteorology from the
ground locations coupled with limited airborne and profiling measurements;
(2) development of preliminary emissions inventories in the region under
investigation; (3) development of a quality assurance plan for the measurements;
(4) development of a data base management plan. The third year provides: (1) for
detailed studies of chemistry and meteorology from the ground locations coupled
with more elaborate airborne and profiling measurements; (2) development of
detailed emissions inventories in the region under investigation; (3) implementation
of a quality assurance plan for the measurements; (4) development of a managed
data base. The fourth year is devoted to data analysis and interpretation with
additional support for focused studies suggested from a first- look at the data and
an assessment of the degree to which study objectives were accomplished.
• Establish a process for the periodic review of regional field studies to determine the
"lessons learned."
• Present findings in articles submitted to peer-reviewed scientific journals.
• Provide an inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and a
bibliography of the associated scientific publications to NARSTO
Deliverables:
• The scientific findings related to the ozone air-quality problems in Mexico, the
United States and Canada will be condensed in critical, peer reviewed review
papers and manuscripts. The focus of these publications will be the new
understanding and information provided by NARSTO research in answering the
key scientific questions poised by NARSTO.
105
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Inventory of available data sets, resume of scientific findings and bibliography of
the associated scientific publications to NARSTO.
Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
—
0.3
1996
—
3.3
1997
—
10.0
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. These estimates are that required to fund
one of the studies mentioned above. The estimates will depend on the scope of the study.
The $0.3M for the first year is allocated to design the study. The $3.3M for the second
year provides for a scoping study. The $10M for the third year is to fund the
comprehensive study. It is presumed that a fourth year will be required to complete a
study. That year would require approximately $5.0M for follow-up measurements and
data interpretation.
Strategic Activity 7:
Advance technology and develop innovative new approaches
Activity Goal: Provide for the development of new science and technology in for
understanding air-quality management. (Contributes to answering Science Questions 1-5)
Major Tasks: ***Sponsor development of promising innovative combinations of new
measurement and modeling techniques (e.g., mobile and airborne drone monitors).
Task Protocol:
• Research to develop new methods would be provided by a peer-review grants
process.
• The funding period would be sufficient to allow adequate time for the development
of the research activity.
• Present findings in articles submitted to peer-reviewed scientific journals.
Deliverables:
• Peer-review journal articles that indicate the relevance to understanding NARSTO
science questions.
106
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Resources:
FISCAL YEAR
RESOURCE*
Highest priority
Total required
1995
0.1
1996
0.5
1997
0.5
Resources are quoted in units of 106 US dollars. The estimate is predicated on the
assumption that a few percent of the available resources for the NARSTO effort should be
available for advance study projects.
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B3. MODELING
Near Term:
Goal:
Near-term research efforts are aimed at producing improvements in the regional and urban
air quality models in the next 2-3 years (by 1997) to reduce their uncertainty in the simulation of
ozone production. The recommendations stem from current understanding, developed from
available diagnostic model evaluation investigations, of possible reasons for model uncertainty or
poor performance. Recommendations are also directed at development of a better understanding
of the effects of uncertainty on model predictions. A goal is quantification of model
improvements that will significantly reduce uncertainty and implementation of those improvements
in advanced, science models. This work depends on research already under way. These research
tasks, therefore, aim at augmenting and adapting existing work to NARSTO objectives. (The
near-term research activities contribute underpinnings to answering policy questions P-2, P-4, and
P-6; they contribute to answering science questions S-2 and S-4)
Strategic Activity 1:
Influence of biogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Improve the chemical mechanisms for biogenic VOC's in the air quality
models using existing data.
*** Major Task 1.3:l Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms.
***Develop an improved mechanism for isoprene using existing kinetic/mechanistic data
and smog chamber data.
**Develop an improved mechanism for the monoterpenes using the existing (although
limited) kinetic/mechanistic data and smog chamber data.
1 The priorities that were determined for the tasks during the Boulder Workshop (June 6-8, 1994) are shown
before each major task and project. The priorities are: *** (first or highest); ** (second or next); * (third or
lowest).
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Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
200
96
200
97
200
Strategic Activity 2:
Chemistry of anthropogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Improve the chemical mechanisms for anthropogenic VOC's in the air
quality models using existing data.
***Major Task 2.2: Smog Chamber/Atmospheric Observations Research.
***Obtain smog chamber data for testing chemical oxidant mechanisms for ethanol, methyl
tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE).
***Major Task 2.3: Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms.
***Expand the VOC chemistry included in existing mechanisms so the mechanisms can
be used for diagnostics of current air quality model predictions.
***Develop an improved mechanism for the reaction of alkenes with O3 and OH radicals.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
500
96
100
97
100
Strategic Activity 3:
Vertical mixing and transport processes (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Develop the process-level information that is necessary to advance our
understanding of the individual vertical mixing, transport and boundary processes important to the
regional and urban meteorological influence on photochemical production. Develop
parameterizations that will result in improved linkages among meteorology, emissions and
chemical transport processes. This information is fundamental to development and/or
improvement of the modules in the air quality models.
*** Major Task 3.1: Meteorology: Transport and Mixing.
***Develop improved parameterizations of soil moisture and surface/canopy heat flux
exchange for the meteorological models.
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***Evaluate and improve parameterizations of the planetary boundary layer used currently
in meteorological models.
"•Update air quality model modules of air-surface exchange (dry deposition) to reduce
inconsistencies with the most recent observations, particularly for ozone, nitric acid and particles.
**Major Task 3.3: Enhance Coupling of Met.-Chem.- and Emissions
Incorporate new, high-resolution land-use information consistently into models especially
biogenic emissions and meteorological models.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
200
96
200
97
100
Strategic Activity 5:
Fine-scale phenomena (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Develop new modules for incorporation into the air quality models that can
account for sub-grid effects in current models and more accurately describe the coupled
interactions between chemistry and meteorology at fine temporal and spatial scales.
***Major Task 5.1: Process Parameterization/Module Development
***Develop an advanced plume-in-grid capability for regional and urban air quality models
for incorporation into current chemical transport models.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000' s)
95
150
96
150
97
0
Strategic Activity 6: Development of modeling systems
Activity Goal: Incorporate the improvements in process-level understanding into the
emissions-based air quality models (model modules). Incorporate improvements in model
numerics and infrastructure to provide tools for more insightful model evaluation and to allow
easier and more appropriate model applications and interpretations of results.
Ill
-------
*** Major Task 6.1: Model system/Numerics Improvements
***Upgrade the model codes and chemical solvers to be able to easily accept expanded
chemical mechanisms of isoprene chemistry and expanded VOC species.
*** Major Task 6.2: Coupling Across System Elements
***Develop a multi-level air quality model nesting capability that is dynamically consistent
with new multi-level nesting capabilities of the meteorological models.
** "Introduce improved planetary boundary layer parameterizations into operational
meteorological models, and where appropriate, make certain that turbulent mixing processes are
represented in a similar way in chemical transport models.
***Upgrade and update the detailed chemical species lists for process and combustion
emissions to support expanded species lists for enhanced chemical mechanisms.
""Incorporate improved soil moisture modules/parameterizations into the operational
meteorological models and upgrade links with biogenic emissions models.
Resources:
Year
${l,000's)
95
200
96
200
97
200
Strategic Activity 7:
Evaluation, corroboration and diagnosis (Done in concert with the Observations and
Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Determine the strengths and weaknesses of the emissions-based models and
quantify their uncertainty relative to applications questions. Help characterize our level of
understanding of the photochemical processes. Provide guidance to efficiently target resources
to the most critical monitoring methods and network and field study design issues.
*** Major Task 7.1: Application of Diagnostic Tools
***Compile existing and ongoing sensitivity/uncertainty studies and process pathway
analyses; identify major holes to fill and initiate studies to identify point of sensitivity.
*** Major Task 7.2: Diagnostic Comparisons Against Field Data
***Evaluate improved planetary boundary layer parameterizations in 3-D simulation
models using detailed data sets, such as those from SJVAQS/AUSPEX and SOS.
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"Collect a varied set of cases for model simulation from available field data periods and
form into a data base. Adapt inputs to several advanced models to the data periods and make the
advanced models available to the air quality community.
*** Major Task 7.3: Field Study Design and Support
""•""Coordinate with Observations Team on aircraft support for measurements of full
chemistry aloft and measurements by ozone LEDAR during the 1995 Nashville Intensive to
develop a high quality data base for model evaluation. Provide measurement support for a second
isoprene measurement site as part of the 1995 Nashville Intensive.
***Coordinate with the Observations Team on field study design work for the Northeast.
***Define chemical species of critical importance to model evaluation from a diagnostic
and observational-based model perspective. Communicate findings to methods projects within
Observations Team.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000' s)
95
400
96
300
97
200
Strategic Activity 8:
Application of modeling systems (Done in concert with the Analysis and Assessment,
Observations, and Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Provide model analyses for the Assessment Team. Help to define the
uncertainty in assessment linkages and answers.
*** Major Task 8.2: Quantification of Uncertainty
"""""Characterize/quantify the effects of model uncertainties on predictions of control
strategy effectiveness.
*** Major Task 8.3: Advanced Model Assessment
***Compare results from improved models with those from current model regarding
predicted effectiveness of control strategies.
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Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
300
96
400
97
400
Long Term:
Goal: The objective is to define and carry out the basic long-term scientific research
required to improve our understanding in critical physical and chemical areas. The aim is to
broaden and deepen the foundations of our understanding and achieve fundamental advances that
will reduce the uncertainty in air quality model predictions. This research is considered
fundamental to development of better answers for the policy and scientific questions of NARSTO.
This long-term research also underpins the development of observational-based models. (The
long-term research activities contribute underpinnings to answering policy questions P-2, P-4, P-5,
and P-6; they contribute to answering science questions S-2, S-3 and S-4)
Strategic Activity 1:
Influence of biogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Substantially improve our understanding of the chemical kinetic and
mechanistic processes important to the chemistry of biogenic VOC's. Acquire new, more-
advanced data on the complex reaction system associated with atmospheric photochemical
oxidation processes both in the laboratory and in the atmosphere. These data are to support the
development and evaluation of chemical mechanisms used in the air quality models. The desired
outcome is, first, acquisition of the elementary kinetic and mechanistic data needed to construct
reliable chemical transformation modules; second, acquisition of a comprehensive database of
smog chamber and atmospheric observations that can be used to evaluate chemical reaction
mechanisms; and, third, reliable chemical transformation modules that can be used in the next
generation of air quality models.
*** Major Task 1.1: Chemical Kinetic and Mechanistic Studies
***Obtain further kinetic/mechanistic data for isoprene, the monoterpenes, and other
biogenics (such as the oxygenates).
*** Major Task 1.2: Smog Chamber/Atmospheric Observations Research
114
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***Acquire a more extensive smog chamber data base for isoprene and the monoterpenes.
*** Major Task 1.3: Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms
***Develop improved mechanisms for isoprene, the monoterpenes and other biogenics
(including the oxygenates) using the newly obtained kinetic/mechanistic data and smog chamber
data.
**Test mechanisms developed for isoprene and the other biogenics against ambient
observations.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
300
96
250
97
350
98
400
99
300
00
200
Strategic Activity 2:
Chemistry of anthropogenic VOC's (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Substantially improve our understanding of the chemical kinetic and
mechanistic processes important to the chemistry of anthropogenic VOC's. Acquire new, more-
advanced data on the complex reaction system associated with atmospheric photochemical
oxidation processes both in the laboratory and in the atmosphere. These data are to support the
development and evaluation of chemical mechanisms used in the air quality models. The desired
outcome is, first, acquisition of the elementary kinetic and mechanistic data needed to construct
reliable chemical transformation modules; second, acquisition of a comprehensive database of
smog chamber and atmospheric observations that can be used to evaluate chemical reaction
mechanisms; and, third, reliable chemical transformation modules that can be used in the next
generation of air quality models.
*** Major Task 2.1: Chemical Kinetic and Mechanistic Studies
***Using new, innovative experimental approaches and analytical methodology, elucidate
the products formed during the atmospheric oxidation of aromatic VOC's.
***Augment the laboratory kinetic/mechanistic studies by employing computational
chemistry techniques to estimate degradation products for those gas-phase reactions that are
difficult to study experimentally.
115
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***Conduct further studies to elucidate the mechanism of alkene reactions with OH, NO3,
and O3.
** Obtain reaction rates and identify products formed in reactions involving higher
molecular weight organic peroxy radicals, including a better elucidation of nitrogen reservoirs.
**Elucidate the kinetics and mechanism of the reaction of OH radicals with the higher
molecular weight alkanes.
**Acquire kinetic and mechanistic data needed for developing mechanisms describing the
atmospheric reactions of alcohols, ethers, glycols, and components of reformulated gasoline.
**Obtain quantum yields, absorption cross sections, and reaction products for oxygenates
(other than formaldehyde) that are emitted into the atmosphere as well as produced during the
oxidation of other VOC's.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
900
96
1,400
97
1,400
98
1,200
99
1,000
00
800
*** Major Task 2.2: Smog Chamber/Atmospheric Observations Research
***Acquire data to better characterize chamber wall effects and other artifacts that are
presently limiting the usefulness of smog chamber data for testing reaction mechanisms.
***Design innovative smog chambers that are well characterized and sufficiently artifact
free to warrant studies at low VOC/NOX ratios and low precursor concentrations.
* """Conduct experimental studies in clean, well characterized smog chambers using
precursor reactant mixtures and concentrations that are representative of those found in urban and
regional/rural atmospheres. Use improved measurement techniques that will allow better carbon
and nitrogen balances and acquire the data under nighttime as well as daytime conditions.
**Obtain smog chamber data for VOC species not previously studied that, by virtue of
their high reactivity and/or high ambient levels, are expected to contribute significantly to urban
oxidant formation.
*Using advanced in situ analytical devices, acquire atmospheric observations designed to
elucidate or evaluate particular processes in oxidant mechanisms, including those occurring at
116
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night and in upper air and aged urban air masses. Acquire field data that can be used to test
emission-based and observation-based models.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
600
96
1,700
97
1,400
98
1,400
99
800
00
800
*** Major Task 2.3: Development of Chemical Oxidant Mechanisms
***Develop new methods for representing generalized reaction schemes so that more
information on VOC reactants and products can be included in the mechanisms used in air quality
models.
***Develop state-of-the-science chemical transformation modules for use in emission-based
models that incorporate all the kinetic and mechanistic data obtained hi laboratory and
computational chemistry studies. Evaluate the transformation modules against the entire data base
of smog chamber experiments.
* """Characterize the effect of uncertainties in our understanding and representation of
chemical processes on oxidant predictions obtained with chemical transformation modules.
**Develop numerical algorithms that more efficiently solve the differential equations for
chemical processes.
"""Characterize the ability of chemical mechanisms to be extrapolated from the smog
chamber to the ambient.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
300
96
500
97
600
98
700
99
500
00
400
Strategic Activity 3:
Vertical mixing and transport processes (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Develop more accurate understanding and parameterizations of the
individual vertical mixing, transport, boundary and large-scale meteorological processes that have
an important influence on regional- and urban-scale photochemical production. Develop means
to more accurately represent the meteorological processes in mathematical models. Improve the
117
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linkages among meteorology, emissions and chemical transport models. Provide new
developments to improve the meteorological modules/drivers in the air quality modeling systems.
*** Major Task 3.1: Transport and Mixing
Major Task Goal: Develop a more accurate description of the vertical mixing and
transport occurring in the atmosphere and formulate for use in the meteorological models
"driving" the chemical transport models. Requires advanced measurements of the physical
processes occurring in the atmosphere and large-scale computer studies to define techniques to
describe the processes. The desired outcome is more accurate meteorological modules that can
be used in the evolving generation of air quality models.
***Develop improved algorithms and explanatory descriptions of vertical mixing and
transport, including higher order turbulence closure schemes, to describe mixing throughout the
planetary boundary layer, for daytime and nocturnal conditions, to improve modeling of the lower
tropospheric vertical stability above the planetary boundary layer, and for use in the
meteorological models "driving" the chemical transport models.
***Develop more advanced parameterizations of soil moisture and surface/canopy heat-
flux exchange and incorporate them into modules for the meteorological models.
***Develop and incorporate explicit modeling of clouds and develop a smooth transition
to scales requiring (convective) parameterizations of clouds in the meteorological models.
*Update air quality model modules and monitoring methods that currently predict air-
surface exchange (dry deposition) using resistance analogues to reduce inconsistencies with the
most recent observations.
*Explore the utility of variable grid or adaptive grid systems for the meteorological and
air chemistry models.
*Develop approaches and algorithms for dynamic air-surface exchange (dynamic boundary
conditions) beyond the current resistance analogue that acts as a sink. This would more
realistically simulate the physical processes occurring and allow emissions fluxes as well as
deposition fluxes to be consistently, dynamically modeled.
Resources:
IYear
$ (l,000'sl_
95
200
96
400
97
600
98
600
99
600
00
600
118
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*** Major Task 3.2: Data Assimilation/Large-Scale Interactions
Major Task Goal: Develop new techniques for assimilating key parameters into the
meteorological models as the models compute the dynamics of the atmosphere, termed 4-
dimensional data assimilation (4-DDA) and to incorporate these techniques into the models. It
is imperative that the meteorological simulation of past conditions be as accurate as possible across
all variables. Current prognostic models still have an unacceptable degree of error. The desired
outcome is modules and methods for incorporation in the models that produce a more reliable
representation of the physical-chemical processes. Develop improved descriptions of radiative
transfer, especially its effect on actinic flux. Develop procedures to incorporate global-scale,
boundary influences on the regional photochemistry. The desired outcomes are new or improved
modules and new procedures for use in the evolving generation of air quality models.
***Develop techniques to incorporate remote sensing information from satellites on cloud
and soil moisture, plus others, into the predictions of the prognostic meteorological models.
***Develop techniques to incorporate the higher resolution sounding information and
NEXRAD radar data into the prognostic meteorological models through 4-dimensional data
assimilation. The use of other data would also be explored.
**Developed improved descriptions of the radiative transfer functions that account better
for cloud cover and for such variables as the global ozone column.
**Develop approaches to incorporate stratospheric exchange at the upper boundary of the
regional air quality models. Develop methods to link with the stratosphere to appropriately
incorporate global boundary conditions effects in the regional models.
*Characterize the accuracy of the new sounding data collected by the new remote sensing
techniques and compare to current data used for 4-dimensional data assimilation.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
450
96
450
97
450
98
450
99
450
00
450
119
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*** Major Task 3.3: Enhanced Coupling of Meteorology-Chemistry-Emissions
Major Task Goal: Develop new techniques for coupling meteorology and emissions that
more accurately represent the physical processes occurring. Parameterize these techniques into
algorithms or modules to be used in the meteorological and emissions models. The desired
outcome is more accurate mathematical descriptions of the processes affecting emissions fluxes
for use in new emissions models.
***Incorporate new, high-resolution land use information in the meteorological models.
Update the interface with the boundary layer modules. Update the interface with air-surface
exchange modules.
***Incorporate new, high-resolution land use information consistently into biogenic
emissions processors and the meteorological models.
Coordinate development of an improved canopy model for more accurate estimates of heat,
momentum and moisture for the meteorological model and adapt it for use with emissions models.
Make the descriptions in all models consistent. This will result in improved estimates of dry
deposition, biogenic emissions and mixing heights.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
175
96
175
97
175
98
175
99
175
00
175
Strategic Activity 4: Heterogeneous processes (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: To elucidate the role heterogeneous processes play in the transformation
and deposition of atmospheric species that are important to oxidant formation.
*** Major Task 4.1: Transformation and Removal in the Aqueous Phase
Major Task Goal: Determine the aqueous properties, such as solubility and reaction
kinetics, that control the transformation and removal of reactive pollutants in cloud, fog and on
surface water.
**Determine the aqueous solubilities of oxygenated organics so their lifetimes against dry
and wet deposition may be assessed.
* """Investigate the kinetics of aqueous-phase reactions involving oxygenated organics,
including their photolysis and reaction with O3.
120
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***Determine the extent of uptake of free radicals, oxygenated organics and nitrogen
compounds in cloudwater, fog, and hygroscopic aerosols.
** Major Task 4.2: Transformation and Removal on Aerosols and the Earth's
Surface
Major Task Goal: Investigate the surface reactions and deposition resistances that are
important for the transformation and removal of gaseous pollutants on aerosols and at the Earth's
surface.
"""Investigate heterogeneous reactions pathways of nitrogen compound precursors
responsible for the loss of NOX and formation of nitrous acid.
**Determine surface deposition resistances for important trace species (e.g., oxidants, free
radicals and their precursors) on typical terrestrial surfaces under controlled conditions.
*** Major Task 4.3: Development of Aqueous-Phase Oxidant Mechanisms
Major Task Goal: Develop mechanisms describing reactions in hygroscopic aerosols and
cloudwater and merge these mechanisms with the gas-phase chemical oxidant mechanisms
developed under Major Task 2.3.
***Develop an aqueous-phase chemical mechanism for hygroscopic aerosols and
cloudwater.
* """Integrate the aqueous-phase mechanisms with the efficient solvers and gas-phase
chemical oxidant mechanisms developed under Major Task 2.3.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
500
96
500
97
500
98
500
99
500
00
500
Strategic Activity 5:
Fine-scale phenomena (Done in concert with the Observations Team)
Activity Goal: Develop innovative techniques that provide a more accurate description of
the fast photochemistry occurring at the turbulence time scales. Develop new modules for
incorporation into the air quality models that can account for sub-grid effects in current models
and more accurately describe the coupled interactions between chemistry and meteorology at fine
temporal and spatial scales.
121
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*** Major Task 5.1: Parameterization of Sub-grid Processes into Modules
Major Task Goal: Develop new modules that can account for sub-grid effects in current
models and more accurately describe the coupled interactions between chemistry and meteorology
at fine temporal and spatial scales. Incorporate the modules in the evolving generation of air
quality models, either in advanced operational models or in science reference models for benching
the operational models. The desired outcome is a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the
model predictions are an enhanced understanding of the importance of that uncertainty to model
predictions.
***Develop improved understanding of plume chemistry within strong NOX plumes and
the interaction with the surrounding environment. Incorporate the new understanding into
modules of plume-in-grid behavior for use in the air quality models.
*** Major Task 5.2: Identification and Study of Sub-grid Processes
Major Task Goal: Develop innovative techniques that provide a more accurate description
of the fast photochemistry occurring at the turbulence time scales. Develop a computational,
scientific benchmark of the detailed process interactions to assess the impact of sub-grid scale
processes on the predictions of the urban and regional models. This work will address a key area
of uncertainty in current model design and a major objective will be to better understand the
subgrid-scale phenomena and quantify how the effects of processes that are not able to be
described in operational models may bound predictions from the air quality models.
***Use explicit cloud modeling and/or Large Eddy Simulation (LES) to better understand
cloud parameterizations and cloud dynamics (transport and venting), microphysics, aerosols
(scavenging and nucleation), aqueous and heterogeneous chemistry, and radiative transfer.
*Develop an understanding of the interaction of turbulence and chemistry. Conduct Large
Eddy Simulation (LES) modeling studies at small temporal and spatial scales to develop an
understanding of the importance of simulating turbulent versus average behavior on chemical
predictions of the air quality models.
*Develop approaches, such as a particle approach or mini-parcel approach, capable of
describing the impact of subgrid-scale inhomogeneous chemistry.
122
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Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
$ (1,000's)
95
300
If Intense:
96
500
800
97
500
800
98
500
700
99
500
500
00
500
500
Intense Means: extensive LES simulations are deemed essential
Strategic Activity 6:
Development of modeling systems
Activity Goal: Incorporate the improvements in process-level understanding into the
emissions-based air quality models (model modules). Incorporate improvements in model
infrastructure to provide tools for more insightful model evaluation and to allow easier and more
appropriate model applications and interpretations of results.
**Major Task 6.1: Model System/Numerical Improvements
**Upgrade the model codes and remove internal limits to be able to accept expanded
isoprene chemistry and unlumped VOC's.
"""Incorporate new chemical solvers and solver compilers that are flexible and modular.
"""Incorporate sensitivity and uncertainty analyses into the model codes for easy use and
develop flexible model versions for sensitivity testing.
**Develop a multi-level model nesting capability.
"""Introduce new, third generation air quality models stemming from research supported
by high performance computing programs into the NARSTO modeling process.
** Major Task 6.2: Enhanced Coupling Across System Elements
"""Incorporate equivalent planetary boundary layer parameterizations in the meteorology
and chemical transport models.
"""Incorporate equivalent soil moisture, surface heat flux and land use characterizations into
the meteorological and biogenic and evaporative emissions models.
"""Upgrade and update the chemical species lists associated with process and combustion
emissions in the emissions models to support expanded species lists for enhanced chemical
mechanisms.
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**Develop advanced emissions processing that is capable of dynamically matching scales
with the meteorological and chemical transport models.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
200
96
300
97
400
98
600
99
600
00
400
Strategic Activity 7:
Model evaluation, corroboration and diagnosis (Done in concert with the Observations and
Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Determine the strengths and weaknesses of the emissions-based and
observations-based models relative to applications questions. Help to characterize our level of
understanding of the photochemical processes. Help to efficiently target resources to the most
critical monitoring methods and network and field study design issues.
*** Major Task 7.1: Develop and Apply Diagnostic Tools
Major Task Goal: Develop and apply diagnostics tools including methods for sensitivity,
uncertainty and process pathway analysis. The objective is understand what is driving model
results, identify points of sensitivity, and ultimately to prioritize further research aimed at
improving descriptive and predictive capabilities. Examples of sensitivity studies that would be
valuable include:
***Sensitivity of modeled concentrations to model design issues, such as vertical and
horizontal resolution or the uncertainty in the formulations and/or parameterizations of the
chemical mechanisms used in the operational models.
***Sensitivity of modeled concentrations to input uncertainties, such as emissions, to
meteorology, such as mixing height, and to boundary conditions, such as air-surface exchange.
***Study of the pathways involved in ozone production and the species interactions as a
function of grid size, urban/rural emissions and meteorology.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
Near
96
100
97
200
98
200
99
200
00
200
124
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*** Major Task 7.2: Diagnostic Model/Module Comparisons Against Field Data
Major Task Goal: Produce structured protocols and evaluations of the emissions-based
models or modules against field data. Provide interpretations of the evaluation results
characterizing strengths and weaknesses with respect to emissions-based model applications.
Examine the influence of model and field study design on the evaluation results. Develop
interpretations that will provide the basis and directions for further model and module
development. The desired outcome is a judgment on the quality of the models' ability to represent
the physical-chemical processes underlying photochemical production and a translation into a
judgments on the strengths and weaknesses of operational models relative to application questions.
***Evaluate UAM on 1992 Atlanta Intensive data from the Southern Oxidant Study, on
the 1989 SCAQS data and other high quality, multi-species urban data bases.
***Continue to evaluate ROM and RADM on the special chemistry data at the surface and
aloft from the Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study data from 1988 and 1990.
***Evaluate ROM, RADM and NOM on the special chemistry data at the surface and aloft
from the Southern Oxidant Study field studies of 1990 and 1992.
***Prepare a protocol for and carry out an evaluation of major urban and regional models
on the Southern Oxidant Study 1995 Nashville Intensive data base.
***Prepare a protocol for and carry out an evaluation of major urban and regional models
on new field study data collected under the NARSTO Program.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
$ (1,000's)
95
Near
If Intense:
96
100
200
97
200
500
98
200
500
99
200
500
00
200
500
Intense Means: formal evaluation project using large, new field data sets
*** Major Task 7.3: Field Study Design and Support
Major Task Goal: Develop recommendations for field study designs and field study
support that will particularly improve the diagnostic quality of model evaluation efforts and
enhance the ability to reduce uncertainties. The recommendations will include measurement
125
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programs and/or strategies, network design, needed advancements in situ analytical capabilities,
and needed advancements in monitoring strategies. Develop recommendations for field study and
monitoring designs in support of the other NARSTO teams' objectives.
***Define chemical species of critical importance to model evaluation from a diagnostic
and observational-based model perspective. Communicate findings to methods projects within
Observations Team.
***Define field study sequences that will support model evaluation needs, in collaboration
with Observations Team. Use emissions-based models to help to design future NARSTO field
studies.
***Define studies that can help reduce emissions uncertainty with the aid of the emissions-
based models in collaboration with the Emissions Team. Among the many examples, a soil NOX
verification study is needed.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
$ (1,000's)
95
100
If Intense:
96
100
300
97
100
300
98
100
300
99
100
300
00
100
300
Intense Means: extensive design work for major field or emissions uncertainty study
Strategic Activity 8:
Application of modeling systems (Done in concert with the Analysis and Assessment,
Observations, and Emissions Teams)
Activity Goal: Provide model analyses for the Assessment Team. Help to define the
uncertainty in assessment linkages and answers.
** Major Task 8.1: Policy Study Design Analysis
**Develop and demonstrate modeling techniques and protocols for assessing effects of
potential, new ambient air quality standards for ozone.
*** Major Task 8.2: Policy-Related Uncertainty Analysis
***Quantify the effects of model input uncertainties on control strategy results. Develop
effective means of communicating the quantified results.
126
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** Major Task 8.3: Model Intel-comparisons
**Assess the differences in model response for various air quality models as a function of
VOC and/or NOX emissions reduction.
**Assess the differences in model characterization of expected airshed response to
emissions reductions for various air quality models as compared to tested observation-based
methods.
Resources:
Year
$ (1,000's)
95
300
96
300
97
300
98
500
99
500
00
500
127
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B4. EMISSIONS
The scientific approach is an attempt to achieve the emissions research objectives stated
earlier in an ambitious ten-year timeframe. The strategic activities are not in priority order as a
partial implementation cannot achieve the objectives; it will take the complete package of projects.
Thus all major tasks are assigned the highest priority (***). The cost estimates are strictly an
estimate, and do include on-going work.
Strategic Activity 1:
Qn-road Mobile Source Emission Model Development (Done in concert with the Modeling
Team)
Goals: Develop on-road emission models that are capable of representing separate modes
of vehicle operation and the resultant modal emissions for specific roadway sections and parking
areas (contributes to addressing Science Concerns 3a, 4c, and 5).
Major Tasks: ***Survey mobile source emission inventory approaches on state and
national levels. Determine if on-going work can be applied to other geographic areas.
(near-term)
***Evaluate the uncertainty of mobile source emissions inventories using present and
future techniques with an integrated assessment of datasets used in developing emission and
activity factors. Use this information to prioritize further research, (on-going)
***Establish a framework for a research-grade mobile source emission model that provides
estimates of emissions resolved temporally and spatially. The model will need independent
emission factor and activity modules for various aspects of vehicular emissions (e.g., fuel type,
closed- and open-loop operation, cold and hot starts, evaporative losses, road grade, air
conditioner use, age, tampering, driver behavior). Develop and test the approach for one city.
After testing and validation for one city, expand to other cities in North America for more
complete module development, (near-term)
***Develop modal emission factors (exhaust and evaporative) for automobiles and
light-duty trucks for all aspects of vehicle operation, vehicle condition, fuel parameters (e.g.,
129
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reformulated gasoline, oxygenated fuels), and driver behavior in the laboratory and under on-road
conditions, (near-term)
***Develop temporally and spatially resolved activity data for automobiles and light-duty
trucks with improved travel demand models. The models must provide estimates of vehicle
activity for each modal emission factor, (near-term)
***Develop modal emission factors for medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the laboratory
and under on-road conditions. Heavy-duty truck research would be near-term because of their
large contribution to NOX emissions, while medium-duty truck work would be long-term.
***Develop temporally and spatially resolved modal activity data (e.g., idling time by
season, load operations due to weight and grade) for heavy- (near-term) and medium-duty trucks
(long-term).
***Using a variety of on-road studies of in-use vehicles, determine how much vehicle
activity is contributed by medium-, high-, and super-emitters and test how implementation of
inspection and maintenance programs will affect their emissions. Investigate the variability in
emission rates, (near-term)
***Evaluate the "real world" effect of traffic control measures (TCMs) on reducing
emissions for incorporation into prediction models, (long-term)
***Analyze existing NMOC and NOX (e.g., NO2, nitrous acid) speciation data to
determine how well it represents emissions for important modes of vehicle operation. Develop
new speciation data for "real world" emissions where existing data has gaps. This work can be
integrated with other programs, (near-term)
Near-Term Outputs:
• Provide a catalog of on-going mobile source emission-related research. (10/95)
• Provide source category uncertainties and a prioritized list for subsequent research
areas. (4/96)
• Provide a peer-reviewed framework for a research-grade mobile source emission
model. (4/96)
Resource Needs ($M)
FY
la
95
0.3
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
130
-------
Ib
Ic
Id
le
If
lg
Ih
li
lj
Total
0.3
1.5
2.0
1.5
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.2
7.6
2.2
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
0.4
8.6
1.5
1.5
2.0
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.4
8.0
0.3
0.7
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
6.2
0.4
1.0
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.5
4.4
0.2
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.5
4.0
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
2.5
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.8
2.3
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.7
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.8
2.4
Strategic Activity 2:
Emission Inventories for Stationary Area Sources and Point Sources (Done in concert with
the Modeling Team)
Goals: Develop new stationary area source and point source models or methodologies that
are capable of estimating emission from all significant sources (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4c, and 5).
Major Tasks: ***Improvement of Data Analysis Methodologies: Develop improved
statistical methods for the purpose of emission estimation. Specific areas of concern include:
1) identification of the distribution of the data and the appropriate method of combining these data
with parameters having other distributions; 2) treatment of data which is recorded as being below
the level of quantification or below the level of detection (censored data); and 3) determination
of the minimum number of measurements required for regressions and analysis of variance
techniques, (near-term)
***Assimilation of Compliance Data: Title 70 of CFR 40 requires that owners or
operators of all major sources in the United States obtain a permit. The regulation requires that
permit facilities submit emission data to the regulatory agencies which proves that they have
complied with all requirements and upon which they will pay the appropriate emission fees. In
addition, the proposed Enhanced Monitoring rules of the U.S. EPA will require all sources which
emit 30% or more of the amount which constitutes a major source to continuously monitor these
131
-------
emissions. The goal of this task is to develop a framework which will permit incorporation of
these data into a national emissions inventory. This is a very near term project as implementation
of 70 CFR 40 is scheduled for November 1995. (near-term)
***Criteria for Development of Emission Factors: Establish a comprehensive guideline
which can be used for the development of emission factors. The guideline will incorporate
experimental design, quality assurance, and data criteria by which one can judge the validity of
emission factors, (near-term)
""•""Unaccounted and New Sources: Recent reviews have indicated that there are a large
number of emission sources which are not included in emission inventories for a variety of
reasons. The goal of this task is to identify such sources and estimate their emissions. The
program is envisioned as a continuing one to permit tracking of new and changing sources.
(on-going)
***Stationary Area Source Data Inventory: Identify and implement alternate and
surrogate sources of data which can be used for stationary area source emission inventory
development. Such data sources could include such diverse sources as trade organizations, market
surveys, point of sale scanning data, local fuel (gas) distribution systems, etc. (near-term)
***Stationary Area Source Data Surveys and Models: The goal of this task is to
conduct surveys for those sources where data is not directly available. The data from the surveys
will be analyzed and incorporated in models to permit evaluating under differing econometric
conditions, (on-going)
***Semi-Mechanistic Emission Models: Develop semi-mechanistic emission models for
a range of industries. This novel approach to emission factor determination is required to account
for and anticipate technological improvements, changes of work practices and economics. The
models should be dynamic and flexible, and incorporate our understanding of mechanisms that are
important in determining emission factors. For example, knowledge of NOX formation can be
used to quantify in detail NOX emissions from different types of industrial furnaces with and
without varying degrees of NOX control. The methodologies would be applied to 10 to 15
industries per year. Of the order of 40 professionals will be required, (on-going)
132
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Near-Term Outputs:
Provide guidelines for the analysis of data to be used in preparing emission factors,
emission models, and emission estimates. (10/97)
Provide a comprehensive guideline and criteria for use by industry and government
in the development of emission factors. (10/97)
Resource Needs ($M)
FY
2a
2b
2c
2d
2e
2f
2g
Total
95
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
4.0
5.7
96
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
4.0
5.6
97
0.4
0.2
0.2
4.0
4.8
98
0.4
0.4
0.2
4.0
5.0
99
0.2
0.2
4.0
4.4
00
0.1
0.2
4.0
4.3
01
0.1
0.2
4.0
4.3
02
0.1
0.2
4.0
4.3
03
0.1
0.2
4.0
4.3
04
0.1
0.2
4.0
4.3
Strategic Activity 3:
Emission Estimates for Nonroad Mobile Sources (Done in concert with the Modeling
Team)
Goals: Develop new models that are capable of estimating emissions from a wide variety
of nonroad engines in use. Develop new stationary source models or methodologies that are
capable of estimating emission from all significant sources (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4c, and 5).
Major Tasks: ***Evaluate uncertainty of nonroad source emission estimates with an
integrated assessment of datasets used in developing emission and activity factors. Use this
information to prioritize research on specific source categories. Priority is expected to be placed
on pleasure water craft and lawn and garden equipment since they appear to be the biggest
nonroad contributors, (near-term)
133
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***Develop improved methodologies or models for nonroad mobile sources. The models
will need independent emission factor and activity modules for various aspects of emissions.
(near-term)
***Develop modal emission factors and temporally and spatially resolved activity data for
high priority source categories. Develop NMOC and NOX speciation profiles, (long-term)
Near-Term Outputs:
• Provide source category uncertainties and a prioritized list for subsequent research
areas, as well as a catalog of on-going research. (4/96)
• Provide a peer-reviewed framework for a research-grade nonroad area source
emission model. (10/97)
Resource Needs ($M)
FY
3a
3b
3c
Total
95
0.5
0.5
1.0
96
0.5
0.5
1.0
97
0.1
0.5
0.5
1.1
98
0.5
1.0
1.5
99
1.0
1.5
2.5
00
1.0
1.0
2.0
01
0.5
1.0
1.5
02
0.5
0.7
1.2
03
0.5
0.3
0.8
04
0.5
0.3
0.8
Strategic Activity 4:
Natural Emissions Modeling (Done in concert with the Observations and Modeling Teams)
Goals: Develop natural source emission models that are capable of estimating NMOC
(e.g., isoprene, terpene, alcohol, aldehyde, other oxygenated) emissions over the seasonal cycle
including (if applicable) leaf growth, maturation, and recession. Develop models of soil NOX
emissions due to natural processes and agricultural operations (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4c,g and 5).
Major Tasks: ***Vegetative NMOC Emissions
Conduct field and laboratory studies of NMOC emissions from agricultural, urban, and
natural landscapes. The purpose of these studies will be to develop and improve NMOC emission
estimates and assess their accuracy. Model components that require investigation include emission
factors, emission algorithms, source distributions, and driving variables (e.g., light, temperature).
(on-going)
134
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***Natural NOX Emissions: Conduct field and laboratory studies of NOX emissions from
agricultural, urban, and natural soils and from lightning. The purpose of these studies will be to
develop and improve NOx emission estimates and assess their accuracy. Model components that
require investigation include emission factors, emission algorithms, source distributions, and
driving variables (e.g., fertilizer application rates, soil type, soil moisture, temperature,
chemistry, vegetation cover), (on-going)
***Other Natural NMOC Emissions: Screening studies are required to assess the
importance of NMOC emissions from disturbed vegetation (e.g., lawn mowing, timber and crop
harvesting, biomass burning), microbial decomposition (e.g., landfills), and geogenic sources.
Emission models will be developed and evaluated for those sources determined to be significant.
(on-going)
***Long-Tenn Changes in Natural Emissions: Changes in climate or land use may have
a significant effect on natural NMOC and NOX emissions. Research is needed to assess potential
changes and their impact on emissions, (on-going)
Near-Term Outputs:
• Provide a catalog of on-going natural source emission-related research. (4/95)
• Provide a peer-reviewed framework for a research-grade natural source emission model.
(10/95)
Resource Needs ($M)
FY
4a
4b
4c
4d
Total
95
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
1.7
96
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
1.7
97
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
1.7
98
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
1.7
99
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
1.7
00
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
1.4
01
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
1.4
02
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.2
1.1
03
0.6
0.2
0.2
1.0
04
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.7
Strategic Activity 5:
Independent Assessment of Emission Inventories (Done in concert with the Observations
and Modeling Teams)
135
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Goals: Corroborate emission inventories with independent estimates of emissions and
evaluate the effectiveness of reformulated gasoline, enhanced inspection and maintenance, and
other control programs to verify emission model estimates (contributes to addressing Science
Concerns 3a, 4cjand5).
Major Tasks: ***Analyze existing data to assess current emission inventories in urban
areas of North America. Compare a variety of approaches, including tunnel and remote sensing
studies, ambient ratio comparisons, and receptor modeling. Conduct field studies and sensitivity
analyses to determine to what extent local determination of source fingerprints improves source
reconciliation accuracy, (near-term)
***Evaluate and improve assessment techniques, (near-term)
***Conduct field studies before and after implementation of major control programs (e.g.,
reformulated gasoline, enhanced inspection and maintenance) in different areas of North America
in order to compare the observed effect on air quality with emission inventory projections.
(near-term)
***Design and execute field studies to evaluate the accuracy of stationary source NMOC
emission inventories. Possible approaches include receptor modeling, "tracers of opportunity",
upwind and downwind measurements, and other techniques that rely on ambient data. Develop
and test the approach for one city. After testing and validation for one city, expand to other cities
with different stationary source characteristics, (near-term)
***Conduct periodic tunnel and street canyon studies to reconcile mobile source emission
inventories and to track progress. Use tunnels or street canyons representing different mixes of
fleet and driving conditions, (long-term)
***Analyze the results from the studies described above to set priorities for further work
to reduce the most important uncertainties in emission inventories, (long-term)
* """Upgrade the hydrocarbon channel and develop NOX and temperature channels for
remote sensing devices used for on-road monitoring of mobile source emissions. Validate the
remote sensing devices under a variety of vehicle operating conditions, (near-term)
***Determine the source(s) of the large amount of uninventoried whole gasoline found in
ambient air. Perform a mass balance on all sources of gasoline in Los Angles, attempting to
account for losses during production, storage, distribution, marketing, and combustion. Consider
136
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adding tracers at different points along the fuel cycle to verify the mass balance results.
(near-term)
***Quantify uncertainty in all emissions estimates, (on-going)
Near-Term Outputs:
• Provide a peer-reviewed assessment of current emission inventories and a
prioritized list for subsequent research areas, as well as a catalog of on-going
research. (4/96)
Resource Needs ($M)
FY
5a
5b
5c
5d
5e
5f
5g
5h*
5i
5j
Total
95
0.3
0.2
3.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
4.8
96
0.3
0.2
3.0
1.0
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.5
8.0
97
0.5
2.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.5
3.8
98
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
3.6
99
3.0
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.5
5.3
00
3.0
1.0
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.0
7.0
01
0.5
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.0
3.3
02
0.5
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.5
3.0
03
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.9
04
1.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
2.0
"Being performed by Observations Team.
Strategic Activity 6:
Emission Projections (Done in concert with the Modeling Team)
Goals: Project the effects of future activity and alternative controls on emission estimates
(contributes to addressing Science Concerns 3b, 4c, and 5).
Major Tasks: ***Develop regional economic models for ozone nonattainment areas,
including maintenance and annual forecasts, (on-going)
***Maintain existing U.S. EPA forecasting capability for stationary sources, (on-going)
137
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***Develop emission control reduction factors for alternative emissions control systems
and keep the file updated as new technologies are developed, (on-going)
***Develop emission control technology degradation factors for alternative technologies.
(on-going)
***Develop interfaces for integrating emissions projection models into the MODELS-3
modeling system, (on-going)
Near-Term Outputs:
• Provide a catalog of on-going natural source emission-related research. (4/95)
• Provide a peer-reviewed framework for a research-grade natural source emission model.
(10/95)
Resource Needs ($M)
FY
6a*
6b
6c
6d
6e
Total
95
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.1
1.3
96
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
97
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
98
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
99
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
00
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
01
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
02
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
03
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
04
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.4
Assumes maintenance of existing models for 30 nonattainment areas. A $3.5 M
development effort would be required for 380 areas should ozone ambient standard be reduced
from 0.12 to 0.08 ppm.
Total Resource Needs ($M)
This estimate does include on-going or planned research and in-house activities which will
account for approximately one-third to one-half of the totals shown below. Thus, on the order
of $8-10M per year of new resources (plus the amount not included in the Observations Team
budget for Task 5) are required for the first few years of the NARSTO Emissions program, with
lesser amounts in later years.
138
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FY
1
2
3
4
5*
6
Total
95
7.6
5.7
1.0
1.7
4.8
1.3
22.1
96
8.6
5.6
1.0
1.7
8.0
0.4
25.3
97
8.0
4.8
1.1
1.7
3.8
0.4
19.8
98
6.2
5.0
1.5
1.7
3.6
0.4
18.4
99
4.4
4.4
2.5
1.7
5.3
0.4
18.7
00
4.0
4.3
2.0
1.4
7.0
0.4
19.1
01
2.5
4.3
1.5
1.4
3.3
0.4
13.4
02
2.3
4.3
1.2
1.1
3.0
0.4
12.3
03
1.7
4.3
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.4
9.1
04
2.4
4.3
0.8
0.7
2.0
0.4
10.6
'Co-funded with Observations Team.
139
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APPENDIX C
NARSTO CHARTER
141
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NARSTO CHARTER
The North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) vision is that of a
focused and coordinated research and development program established for the study of tropospheric
ozone concentrations, sources, formation mechanisms and transport phenomena across the North American
continent. This continental research program will involve scientists and policy makers from Canada,
Mexico and the United States of America.
Whereas,
1) The undersigned public and private institutions desire to plan and implement a comprehensive
tropospheric ozone research strategy to identify and resolve questions related to the complex
chemical and physical processes affecting the formation, transformation, transport and
accumulation of ozone, ozone precursors and smog products in the troposphere over many regions
and principal urban centers in North America;
2) The undersigned have performed and/or have sponsored substantial research and development with
respect to tropospheric ozone formation, transformation, transport and accumulation;
3) The undersigned possess certain advanced scientific skills, facilities, special equipment,
information, computer software, and/or know-how pertaining to the monitoring, modeling,
methods, emission inventories, and chemical and meteorological mechanisms related to
tropospheric ozone and its precursor compounds, such as nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide
(CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOC);
4) The undersigned are interested in the further understanding of ozone in the troposphere and the
development of ozone and ozone precursor monitoring, modeling, methods and emissions control
technologies and the utilization of these technologies by other private and public entities;
5) The undersigned view their collaboration with the Institutions to develop/evaluate technologies
related to tropospheric ozone identification and understanding to be in the furtherance of the
public interest;
6) Canada and the United States have agreed under the "North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA): Supplemental Agreements" and the Canada/US Air Quality Accord to cooperate to
achieve their environmental mandates and goals;
7) A Canadian multi-stakeholder NOX/VOC Science Program was initiated in 1992 with the objective
to establish the scientific basis for measures to eliminate exceedances of the Canadian Air Quality
Objective for tropospheric ozone;
8) Mexico and the United States have agreed under the "Integrated Border Environmental Plan" and
the "North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): Supplemental Agreements" to cooperate
to achieve their environmental mandates and goals;
9) The Government of Mexico through the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL) will
continue to work toward fulfilling the Border Plan commitments, and the Commission for
Environmental Cooperation established under NAFTA will facilitate effective cooperation for the
conservation, protection and enhancement of the environment in the United Mexican States;
10) The NARSTO program has emerged as an effective and comprehensive vehicle for establishing
a cooperative tropospheric ozone research program across the North American continent;
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Therefore,
1) This Charter establishes the scope, goals, strategy, planning, organizational structure and
governance for the NARSTO program;
2) The members of this public-private partnership propose a long-term, comprehensive tropospheric
ozone research program coordinated among government (federal, state/provincial, and municipal),
industry, academia, and other private-sector interests across North America;
3) The continental NARSTO organization will plan and coordinate independently sponsored
programs that result in projects and tasks designed to identify and resolve science questions
related to (a) anthropogenic and biogenic sources of ozone and ozone precursors, (b) the complex
physical and chemical processes affecting the accumulation of ozone and other smog products in
the troposphere, (c) monitoring studies and methodology development needed to verify mandated
emissions control measures for ozone and the precursors of ozone, namely, nitrogen oxides (NOx)
and volatile organic compounds (VOC), and (d) the attainment of ozone standards; and
4) The overall scope and goals of NARSTO are:
a. To provide for sustained coordination, collaboration, and leveraging of resources in
tropospheric ozone research by the multiple organizations in North America (both public
and private) sponsoring and participating in this research;
b. To develop an organization and management structure that facilitates a high level of
individual organizational ownership in the NARSTO program;
c. To provide a comprehensive research program that builds on ongoing research and
encourages and supports the critical short- and long-term research required within the
research strategy;
d. To provide a unified, cohesive, scientifically sound basis for planning and implementing
ozone research that will help sustain sponsors' commitments to a long-term NARSTO
program;
e. To include representation within the NARSTO organization from all stakeholders,
including the policy and air quality management, health and ecological effects research,
and emissions control technology research communities, in order to maintain critical
communications links with key customers and other interested parties;
f. To develop and implement a research strategy reflecting both scientific and policy
concerns;
g. To conduct timely, productive, policy-relevant tropospheric ozone research with frequent
and appropriate reporting of the research results to the science and policy and air quality
management communities;
h. To develop and deliver timely, useful, and scientifically credible assessment tools and
guidance to the policy/air quality management community;
i. To provide periodic state-of-science assessments of the North American ozone problems
and their control, and to revise the NARSTO research strategy based upon the identified
assessment needs and remaining scientific gaps and uncertainties; and
j. To provide a clearinghouse of current technical information generated as part of NARSTO
(i.e., data, publications, results);
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5) The NARSTO organizational objectives are:
a. To provide the opportunity for participation to all parties interested in planning,
sponsoring or performing tropospheric ozone research, as well as those interested in the
outcome of this research.
b. To provide a NARSTO Charter that interested public and private institutions in Canada,
Mexico and the United States of America may sign to signify their concurrence with the
scope, goals, strategy, planning, management and liaison activities established for the
NARSTO organization.
c. To provide a mechanism that sponsoring institutions may sign to (a) indicate senior-level
management commitment to support long-term NARSTO objectives, (b) indicate specified
levels of resources in support of NARSTO, (c) signify their agreement with the public-
private cooperative management approach, and (d) signify their agreement to share data
and information.
d. To provide the following guidelines for participation in the NARSTO program:
• The NARSTO Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA)
under the authority of the Federal Technology Transfer Act (FTTA), 37 U.S.C.
§3710a - 3710d will guide collaboration and cooperation among U.S.
public/private sponsoring institutions, except sponsoring U.S. state environmental
agencies.
The Joint Policy Statement on State/EPA Relations developed and endorsed by
the State/EPA Capacity Steering Committee will guide state environmental
agency collaboration and cooperation with NARSTO.
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will guide international
NARSTO collaboration and cooperation between the United States, Canada and
Mexico.
Institutions subject to participation in the implementation phase of NARSTO (e.g.,
the university and contractor communities) are encouraged to sign the NARSTO
Charter; however, these institutions will not sign the NARSTO CRADA or
participate in the Executive Assembly to avoid potential conflict of interest issues.
6) The key steps in the NARSTO organization and management approach are as follows:
a. Each Charter organization is entitled to participate on one or more NARSTO Councils,
Groups or Teams. However, participation on the NARSTO Executive Assembly is
limited to institutions providing resources to sponsor NARSTO research and development.
b. Each sponsoring organization (including sponsors from U.S. state environmental agencies,
Canada and Mexico) will be a member of the Executive Assembly.
c. The Executive Assembly will convene, physically if possible and in a timely manner, to
select 7-11 of its members to serve on the "Executive Steering Committee".
d. The Executive Steering Committee will elect a Chairperson from its ranks, and will have
the option to add non-voting members from the non-sponsoring stakeholder community.
e. The Executive Steering Committee will meet as needed or at least annually; and will
select individuals/organizations (as appropriate) to serve in the following capacities:
• The "Science Advisory Council"
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• The "Technical Program Team Leaders"
• The "Science and Resource Planning Group"
The "Management Coordinator"
The "Liaison Coordinator"
• The "Quality Systems Management Group"
• The "Data Management Group"
The "Stakeholder Council"
f. Sponsors of NARSTO research will retain total control over their funds and personnel,
and will bear the responsibility for planning, managing, and implementing that portion(s)
of the NARSTO program they select. (NOTE: There will be no NARSTO membership
fees or pooling of sponsor funds under the NARSTO organization. For example., it is
anticipated that the position of Management Coordinator and support facilities and
services for that position will be underwritten by one or more sponsors.)
g. Organizations will not be audited by NARSTO. Organizations will select work and
promise to complete the effort to the best of their abilities and resources. These
"promises" will be coordinated through the Science and Resource Planning Group.
THE UNDERSIGNED REPRESENTATIVES OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INSTITUTIONS FROM
CANADA, MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES CONCUR AS FOLLOWS:
Article 1: Organization
The NARSTO organization will consist of the functional units listed below. An organizational
chart is given in Attachment 1.
• Executive Assembly
• Executive Steering Committee
• Stakeholder Council
• Science Advisory Council
• Science and Resource Planning Group
Management Coordinator
Liaison Coordinator
Liaison Teams
• Quality Systems and Data Management
• Analysis and Assessment Team
Modeling/Chemistry Team
• Observations Team
Emissions Team
Article 2: Membership
Membership in the NARSTO organization is open to any agency or institution representing one
or more of the following stakeholder communities:
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• Industrial and Utility
• Academic
Government (Federal/State/Provincial/Municipal)
• Environmental
• Contractor
• International
Article 3: Functional Units
The key functional units and the responsibilities under each NARSTO functional unit are presented
below.
1) The Executive Assembly : shall:
a. Convene a meeting (at the earliest opportunity) and select 7-11 member organizations to
represent the Executive Assembly on the Executive Steering Committee (ESC)
b. Establish the term of service for ESC members
c. Appoint from each of the selected 7-11 organizations a qualified individual authorized to
participate on the ESC
d. Meet as required
e. Periodically review the composition of the ESC
f. Recommend replacements on ESC resulting from expired terms or other circumstances
2) The Executive Steering Committee shall:
a. Establish the overall strategy (i.e., program vision, mission statement, major policy
relevant science questions and objectives, and policy and science relationships)
b. Establish the general rules and guidelines for all other NARSTO units
c. Mediate conflicts
d. Acquire resources, both monetary and in-kind, as needed
e. Establish a process assigning resources to strategic activities
f. Meet at least annually
g. Establish a Science Advisory Council
h. Select the Science and Resource Planning Group members and appoint the chairperson
i. Select the Management Coordinator
j. Approve Technical Program Team Leaders recommended by the Management Coordinator
The Executive Assembly consists of all sponsoring organizations, including sponsoring U.S. state
environmental agencies and institutions from Canada and Mexico.
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k. Appoint a Liaison Coordinator who will also serve as a non-voting ex-officio member of
the Executive Steering Committee
1. Approve Liaison Team Leaders recommended by the Liaison Coordinator
m. Establish or select an entity to coordinate NARSTO Quality Systems and Data
Management
n. Approve NARSTO strategy documents, assessments, and other major NARSTO products
o. Appoint a Stakeholder Council to represent the interests of the following stakeholder
communities: Research, U.S. Government, Canadian Government, Mexican Government,
Industry and Utilities who will serve as the first point of contact between NARSTO and
the stakeholder community at large
3) The Stakeholder Council2 shall:
a. Review and comment on NARSTO draft products
b. Provide advice and guidance to the Executive Steering Committee and the Management
Coordinator on:
• policy questions/concerns and timing
integration and assessment
short-/long-term balance issues and research priorities
• appointments
4) The Science Advisory Council3 shall:
a. Provide peer review of the NARSTO research strategy and NARSTO associated draft
products
b. Provide independent technical advice and guidance to the Executive Steering Committee
and the Management Coordinator on:
• science questions
• integration and assessment
• short-/long-term balance issues and research priorities
2 The Stakeholder Council consists of regulators, regulatees and other public/private parties which have
interests in the outcome of NARSTO research.
3 The Science Advisory Council consists of internationally recognized and qualified scientists acceptable
to the Executive Steering Committee and nominated through an independent body such as the National
Academy of Sciences.
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5) The Science and Resource Planning Group 4 shall:
a. Balance program-level science/policy questions
b. Define and coordinate the research needed to address the science and policy questions
c. Prioritize program-level needs
d. Identify and prioritize program-level activities
e. Identify program-level funds
f. Recommend which sponsoring organizations might take responsibility for funding which
activities
g. Meet at least twice annually
6) The Management Coordinator 5 shall:
a. Serve as Executive Secretary of the Science and Resource Planning Group
b. Recommend Technical Program Team Leaders to Executive Steering Committee
c. Coordinate the current-year and next-year technical program planning activities through
collaboration with the Executive Steering Committee, Science Advisory Council,
Stakeholder Council, and the Liaison Teams
d. Coordinate current year program activities
e. Oversee program data management and quality assurance
f. Coordinate program integration and assessment activities
g. Coordinate program outreach, information dissemination, communications and technology
transfer activities
7) The Liaison Coordinator and Liaison Teams 6 shall:
a. Establish and maintain communication links with the public policy, effects, control
technology and air quality management communities
b. Establish any necessary advisory teams associated with the above communities
The Science and Resource Planning Group consists of (a) the Team Leader from each Technical
Program Team (i.e., Analysis & Assessment, Modeling/Chemistry, Observations and Emissions); (b) the
Liaison Coordinator; (c) at least one Quality Systems & Data Management representative; (d) resource
planners selected by sponsoring institutions; and (e) any other members selected by the Executive
Steering Committee.
The Management Coordinator shall be selected by the Executive Steering Committee.
The Liaison Coordinator will be appointed by the Executive Steering Committee. The Liaison Team
Leaders will be selected by the Liaison Coordinator and approved by the Executive Steering
Committee.
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c. Provide advice and guidance to the management Coordinator, the Science and Resource
Planning Group and the Analysis and Assessment Team on:
• policy and air quality management issues
• effects research issues
control technology research issues
d. Provide guidance on science/technology transfer issues and information needs
8) The Quality Systems Management and Data Management7 functions shall:
a. Ensure that relevant quality management systems are planned and implemented under the
NARSTO program
b. Plan and conduct audits on the critical NARSTO program elements
c. Plan and coordinate NARSTO data management, data archival and data dissemination
Many of the NARSTO research activities will be planned and coordinated by four
Technical Program Teams 8 that will for their respective areas of expertise: (a) identify
the state-of-the-science, (b) identify any remaining science questions, (c) recommend
programs with prioritization and budget estimates, (d) review research results and
periodically revise plans, and (e) define the level of data quality desired. The roles of the
individual Teams are described below.
9) The Analysis and Assessment Team activities will include:
a. Assessments of ozone and ozone precursor sources, transport, and concentrations
b. Assessments of ecosystem exposure
c. Recommendations for data management, archival and dissemination
d. Data analysis across Technical Program Teams
e. Spatial and temporal mapping of the ozone problem
f. Integration of NARSTO results and communication of findings to other Technical
Program Teams, to policy-makers and to the public
7 The Quality Systems Management function will be independent of NARSTO data generation activities.
Quality Systems Management and Data Management activities will be managed by one or more entities
established or selected by the Executive Steering Committee with concurrence from the Science
Advisory Council.
8 Membership on a Technical Program Team is open to any scientist who represents a NARSTO Charter
organization and whose expertise and interest fall within the designated technical area. Membership on
a Team may be achieved through self-selection.
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10) The Observations Team activities will include:
a. Establishment of monitoring networks (including PAMS enhancements)
b. Intensive measurements
c. Methods development
d. Observations-based analysis
11) The Modeling/Chemistry Team activities will include:
a. Air quality and meteorological model development
b. Model applications research
c. Model evaluation
d. Laboratory and smog chamber studies
e. Chemical mechanism development
12) The Emissions Team activities will include:
a. Emissions model development
b. Process and activity analysis
c. Source and ambient emissions field studies
d. Emissions projections and control technology implications analysis
Article 4: Meetings and Conferences
Whenever possible, to enhance communications, summaries will be prepared for all NARSTO
meetings and conferences, including the meetings conducted by all NARSTO functional units. These
summaries will be (a) maintained for the duration of the estimated 10 year NARSTO program
performance period and (b) filed in a manner that allows easy access and dissemination upon request to
any interested parties in the public or private sectors.
The meetings of each functional unit will be conducted by the Chairperson (or Co-Chairperson
in the absence of the Chair). Each functional unit will select a Secretary who will be responsible for
preparing and maintaining the summaries of each unit meeting.
Each functional unit will establish the level of participation necessary to constitute a quorum for
the conduct of business. Meetings will be scheduled by each functional unit on an as needed basis and
will be planned in a cost effective manner (e.g., conference calls will be used, when feasible).
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Article 5: Functional Unit Actions
This Charter presents the basic guidance for all NARSTO units. The establishment of specific
rules, limits and controls will be left to the discretion of each group/committee. Decisions within a
functional unit may be determined by majority vote or by consensus, as agreed upon by the unit. Where
voting is required, unit members who represent a sponsoring organization may cast one vote each; non-
sponsoring stakeholders who participate are non-voting members of the unit. Unresolved disputes may
be raised to the next highest level in the NARSTO management chain.
Actions of the NARSTO functional units will consist of the decisions and the recommendations
associated with the functions identified above, and neither the decisions of the unit nor its individual
members will obligate the organizations or agencies they represent.
Article 6: Participant Qualifications
Each Stakeholder organization (including sponsors) is encouraged to ensure that their
representatives are qualified for the positions they accept or select in the NARSTO organization. Due to
the processes involved, the appointed and elected leadership positions will undergo a sufficient degree of
scrutiny.
Those positions obtained through the self-selection process will go to individuals who represent
a Stakeholder/Sponsor organization. That organization bears the brunt of the responsibility for ensuring
the qualifications of their NARSTO representative.
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ATTACHMENT 1
NARSTO ORGANIZATION CHART
EXECUTIVE ASSEMBLY
EXECUTIVE STEERING
COMMITTEE
Stakeholder
Council
Liaison
Coordinator
Liaison
Teams
Science Advisory
Council
Science & Resource
Planning Group
Management
Coordinator
Quality Systems
& Data Management
/
Modeling/Chemistry
Team
T
Analysis &
-*•[ Assessment
Team
Emissions
Team
Observations
Team
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NARSTO CHARTER MEMBERS
(Participants)
The undersigned organizations concur with the tropospheric ozone research needs, goals and
approaches described in the NARSTO Research Strategy, and accept the NARSTO organizational structure
and governance contained in this Charter:
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NARSTO CHARTER MEMBERS
(Sponsors)
The undersigned organizations concur with the tropospheric ozone research needs, goals and approaches
described in the NARSTO Research Strategy; accept the organizational structure and governance contained
in this Charter; and agree to individually sponsor portions of the research and development described in
the NARSTO Research Strategy on an annual basis, subject to the availability of funds:
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