United States Office of
Environmental Protection Research and Development
Agency Washington, DC 20460
EPA-600/R-93-067b
April 1993
* EPA Economic Growth
Analysis System:
User's Guide
Prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
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EPA REVIEW NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and
approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily
reflect the views and policy of the Agency, nor does mention of trade names or
commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
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EPA-600/R-93-067b
April 1993
ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM:
User's Guide
FINAL REPORT
Prepared by:
Randy Randolph
TRC ENVIRONMENTAL CORPORATION
100 Europa Drive, Suite 150
Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514
EPA Contract 68-D9-0173
Work Assignment 3/302
Project Officer: Sue Kimbrough
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Prepared for:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Office of Research and Development
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 Washington, DC 20460
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ABSTRACT
This guide is intended to function as a manual for the Economic Growth Analysis
System (E-GAS), which was developed under four work assignments under EPA Contract No.
68-D9-0173. The objective of this report was to describe the development of a prototype E-
GAS modeling system. The E-GAS model will be used to project emissions inventories of
volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon monoxide for ozone
nonattainment areas and Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) modeling regions.
This guide describes in detail the workings of the E-GAS computer modeling software,
and its relationships with internal modeling software components, like Regional Economic
Models, Inc. (REMI) models, and external software, like ROM, the Aerometric Information
Retrieval System (AIRS), and the Urban Airshed Model (UAM). The guide describes all
inputs and outputs from the software, and includes a description of all variables used by the
E-GAS system.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter Page
ABSTRACT ii
LIST OF FIGURES v
LIST OF ACRONYMS vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT vii
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1-1
1.1 Purpose 1-2
1.2 Before Using the System 1-2
1.3 Concepts and Keywords 1-2
1.4 Program Input and User Guide Syntax 1-3
CHAPTER 2 GETTING STARTED 2-1
2.1 Installing E-GAS 2-1
2.2 Running E-GAS 2-1
2.3 Main Menu 2-2
2.4 E-GAS Utilities 2-4
CHAPTER 3 ECONOMIC MODELS IN E-GAS 3-1
3.1 The BLS / REMI U.S. Forecast 3-1
3.2 Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA) 3-1
3.3 References 3-3
CHAPTER 4 POLICY VARIABLE CHANGES 4-1
4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 Regular Policy Variables 4-1
4.3 Translator Policy Variables 4-4
4.4 Population Variable 4-6
CHAPTER 5 Model Suppressions 5-1
CHAPTER 6 TIER 1: THE NATIONAL MODEL 6-1
6.1 National Model Main Screen 6-2
6.2 Baseline Forecast 6-3
6.3 Main Menu 6-4
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter Page
CHAPTER 7 TIER 2: THE REGIONAL MODEL 1'1
7.1 Regional Model Tier Main Screen 7"2
7.2 Baseline Forecast ^-3
7.3 Simulation Forecast ^-3
7.4 Main Menu ^-3
CHAPTER 8 TIER 3: THE GROWTH FACTOR MODULE 8-1
8.1 Output File Selection Screens 8~2
8.2 VMT Data Entry Sequence 8~5
CHAPTER 9 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 9-1
APPENDIX A E-GAS MODELLING AREAS A-l
APPENDDC B FILE FORMAT FOR E-GAS NATIONAL WEFA FORECAST B-l
APPENDK C FILE FORMATS FOR E-GAS VEHICLE MILES
TRAVELED (VMT) INPUT C-l
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
2-1 Main Menu 2-2
2-2 E-GAS Utilities 2-4
6-1 National Model Main Screen 6-2
6-2 National Model Baseline Forecast Screen 6-3
7-1 Regional Model Main Screen ; 7-2
8-1 Output File Format Selection Screen 8-2
8-2 Output File Year Selection Screen 8-3
8-3 Output File Area Selection Screen 8-4
8-4 VMT Data Screen 8-5
8-5 VMT Data Detail Screen 8-6
8-6 Single Growth Factor Screen 8-8
8-7 Growth Factor by Road Type Screen 8-9
8-8 Growth Factor by Road and Vehicle Type Screen 8-10
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LIST OF ACRONYMS
AIRS Aerometric Information Retrieval System
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
CPI Consumer Price Index
CSEMS Commercial Sector Energy Model by State
DOS Disk Operating System
DRI Data Resources, Inc.
E-GAS Economic Growth Analysis System
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
EPV Employees Per Dollar Added
FIPS Federal Information Processing Standards
GNP Gross National Product
GRP Gross Regional Product
HH Household
HOMES Household Model of Energy by State
INRAD Industrial Regional Activity and Energy Demand Model
NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards
RAM Random Access Memory (main memory)
REO Regional Economic Opportunity
RFP Reasonable Further Progress
ROM Regional Oxidation Model
RPC Regional Price Coefficient
RSQE Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics
RWM Relative Wage Mix
RWR Relative Wage Rate
SCC Source Classification Code
SIC Standard Industrial Classification
UAM Urban Airshed Model
WEFA Wharton Econometric Forecast
VGA Video Graphics Adapter
VMT Vehicle Miles Travelled
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This document was prepared by Randy Randolph, TRC Environmental Corp., for the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory (AEERL) and Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
(OAQPS) under the auspices of the Joint Emissions Inventory Oversight Group (JEIOG). EPA
involvement included: E. Sue Kimbrough (Work Assignment Manager) and Larry Jones of the
AEERL Emissions and Modeling Branch; Richard Wayland and Keith Baugues of the OAQPS
Technical Support Division: and Sheila Holman of the OAQPS Air Quality Management
Division. Further significant contributions to this document have been made by staff from
Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), Amherst, MA, and their documents.
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 were signed into law on November 15,
1990. The CAAA require that extreme, severe, serious, and multi-state moderate ozone non-
attainment areas use photochemical grid modelling to demonstrate future attainment with the
ozone national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) [Section 182(e)(2)(A)]. In addition to
photochemical grid modelling, the CAAA require that moderate, serious, severe, and extreme
ozone nonattainment areas submit reasonable further progress (RFP) inventories demonstrating
a 15 percent reduction in emissions from 1990 to 1996 [Section 182(b)(l)(A)]. Further, RFP
inventories for serious, severe, and extreme areas must include demonstration of a three percent
reduction (averaged over three years) from 1996 until attainment is achieved
[Section 182(c)(2)(B)].
Section 182(b)(l)(A) of the CAAA specifies that the 15 percent redirection from baseline
emissions accounts for any growth in emissions after 1990. A key component of the RFP
inventories and photochemical grid modelling demonstrations will be the development of credible
growth factors for the existing inventories.
Since growth in source emissions largely depends on the amount of economic activity
growth in an area, a consistent set of growth factors requires forecasts using consistent Gross
National Product (GNP) forecasts and a consistent methodology for estimating economic activity
in Urban Airshed Model (UAM) and Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) modelling regions. The
need for consistent economic growth factors, however, must be satisfied in a way that allows
States to use their own estimates of national and regional economic activity. The Economic
Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) is an economic and activity forecast model which satisfies
both of these standards.
The existing inventories for RFP demonstration and photochemical modelling will be
housed in the Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS). E-GAS can be applied to AIRS
inventories for the development of emission projections to 2010, when extreme areas must reach
attainment. State users can create custom regional forecasts by modifying input assumptions for
the regional models in the E-GAS system.
The E-GAS modelling system contains three tiers. The first tier includes available national
economic forecasts which are used to drive the regional economic models. The second tier
includes regional economic models for the UAM modelling areas, as well as the States in the
ROM modelling regions. The third tier estimates fuel consumption, physical output, and vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) based on the second tier's regional economic forecasts. The tiers must be
sequentially executed, since data are created by and passed from early tiers for transfer to later
tiers. The three-tiered structure of E-GAS allows users flexibility in modelling. Although a tier
must be run before proceeding to later tiers, the system allows the models to be rerun at the
user's discretion. For example, users may run the national model using either BLS or WEFA
forecasts before performing regional modelling on the last national model run.
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1.1 PURPOSE
The purpose of this User's Manual is to provide a guide through the E-GAS system.
Chapter 1 of this document introduces the terminology used with the system as well as the syntax
and format of the program and user guide. Chapter 2 discusses the use of E-GAS by explaining
the logical progression of the program, presenting sample screens, providing explanations of input
formats, and describing the E-GAS utilities found throughout the system. Chapter 3 describes
the role of national economic models in E-GAS and the two options available to the user.
Chapter 4 explains the general function of E-GAS's policy variables; it then describes the specific
variables while explaining their input. Chapter 5 describes the role of model suppressions in
E-GAS and describes all suppressions available to the user. Chapter 6 describes the operation
of and data required for the E-GAS National Model (Tier 1). Chapter 7 provides similar
descriptions of the Regional Model (Tier 2), and Chapter 8 describes the third tier, the Growth
Factor Module. Chapter 9 identifies contacts for further information regarding the operation of
E-GAS and the logic of the system.
1.2 BEFORE USING THE SYSTEM
The program has been designed for an IBM-compatible personal computer environment.
The system requires the following minimum hardware configurations:
• IBM 80386 or 100 percent compatible personal computer
• Math coprocessor
• 640 Kilobytes Conventional Memory
• 100 Megabytes of available fixed disk storage
• VGA graphics capabilities
DOS 5.0 or higher
• 5l/4 or 3l/2 inch floppy disk drive
1.3 CONCEPTS AND KEYWORDS
Keywords and expressions used in this guide have specific meanings.
Baseline Forecast: The default economic activity forecast without any policy variable
changes. Model responses can be suppressed in the Baseline Forecast.
Demand Data: Demand for products is usually measured in dollars and in many models
is considered equal to the level of spending for a type of product. Final demand represents the
demand for a finished product. Regional consumer and government spending are representative
of final demand in an area. In contrast, industrial demand for products is typically for
subsequent use in producing another product.
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Growth Factor Module: The third tier of E-GAS. This system translates economic
activity data from the first two tiers into Source Classification Code (SCC)-level growth factors.
Model Response Suppression: When running the national or regional tiers of E-GAS
the user is given the option of suppressing model responses. Such suppressions dissolve links
between key elements of the model, thus changing the simulation.
National REMI Forecast: An economic activity forecast for the entire United States.
The user is given the choice of two forecasts: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Wharton
Econometrics Forecasting Associates (WEFA).
Policy Variables: E-GAS provides policy variables that can be used in scenario testing
for a region. Changing policy variables allows the user to simulate the economic impact of
anticipated government policy changes, market changes, or other exogenous changes to the
regional economy. The effect of a policy change is the difference between a baseline forecast
and the simulation forecast with policy variable changes.
Regional REMI Model: An economic model for a subset, or region, of the country.
Relative Costs/Prices: Some of the policy variables that can be defined in E-GAS are
described as relative costs or prices. In these cases, the default cost per unit represents the
average cost for the nation and is standardized to a value of one (1). Therefore, only the relative
change in cost needs to be entered, rather than the actual local cost. For example, a 10 percent
increase in the price of gasoline would indicate a relative gasoline cost of 1.1 and a 10 percent
decrease would indicate a 0.9 relative cost.
REMI Model: An economic model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
(REMI). REMI models are incorporated into E-GAS to forecast economic activity.
Simulation Forecast: An economic activity forecast allowing policy variable changes.
Model responses can be suppressed in the simulation forecasts. If model responses are
suppressed at any point, they should be suppressed throughout the model.
Tiers: E-GAS is a series of three related tiers. The tiers must be executed consecutively,
but may be run any number of times before proceeding to the next. The tiers are as follows:
• Tier 1: National REMI Model
• Tier 2: Regional REMI Model
• Tier 3: Growth Factor Module
1.4 PROGRAM INPUT AND USER GUIDE SYNTAX
E-GAS is a menu-driven system that guides the user through a series of screens which
collect information for adapting the model to the user's needs. User input is limited to selecting
menu items and setting parameters by entering data in text boxes.
It should be noted that, in both the E-GAS system and this guide, references to specific
PC keys are enclosed with < > symbols, that is: the Escape key is identified as , the
Control key is , and the function keys use notation.
Menu screens offer choices regarding progress through E-GAS. Vertical and horizontal
movement is brought about with the cursor control keys (Up, Down, Left, and Right arrows).
These screens only offer choices of data entry screens or other menu screens. Cursor keys are
used to highlight the desired choice. The key is then pressed to select the option.
Pressing the highlighted letter in the choice can also select the option.
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Text boxes provide users the means of answering system questions necessary for model
execution. Data can be entered by basic typing, edited with the and cursor keys,
and accepted with the key.
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CHAPTER 2
GETTING STARTED
2.1 INSTALLING E-GAS
E-GAS can be installed through the following steps:
1. Placing the E-GAS Program Diskette 1 in the appropriate disk drive.
2. Switching to the floppy disk drive containing the E-GAS diskette.
e.g.: A:
3. Running the Install Program.
e.g.: INSTALL
4. Following instructions printed to the screen by the install program.
The install routine will create an VEGAS directory on the destination (fixed) disk drive.
Once installation is complete, the E-GAS system will automatically be started and the title screen
will appear.
2.2 RUNNING E-GAS
After E-GAS has been installed, the system can easily be run by:
1. Setting the default drive to the fixed disk containing E-GAS.
e.g.: C:
2. Setting the default directory to VEGAS by typing:
CD \EGAS
3. Typing EGAS at the DOS prompt.
Upon successful start-up of the system, the title screen is presented, asking the user to press any
key to continue.
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2.3 MAIN MENU
After leaving the title screen, the user arrives at the E-GAS Main Menu.
Economic Growth Analysis Systen
am Menu-
national RENI Model
Regional REMI Model
Groutli Factor Module
Print User Assumptions
About E-GAS
Figure 2-1. Main menu.
The user can advance to the major tiers of E-GAS through the Main Menu. Options can
be chosen by pressing the first letter of the option name or by highlighting the choice and
pressing the key. The Main Menu's options are as follows:
National REMI Model: This option allows the user to create a national-level economic
forecast and is Tier 1 of the three-part process of creating estimated growth factors; it
generates data to drive the Regional REMI Model (Tier 2). This tier may be rerun any
number of times before proceeding to Tier 2. Use of the national model is the subject
of Chapter 6 of this guide.
Regional REMI Model: This choice allows the user to develop a regional economic
forecast. This is Tier 2 of the three-part process of creating estimated growth factors
which generate data to drive the Growth Factor Module (Tier 3). This tier may be rerun
any number of times before proceeding to Tier 3. Use of the regional model is the
subject of Chapter 7 of this guide.
Growth Factor Module: This is the third tier where growth factors are generated and
written to files in the VEGAS subdirectory. Tier 3 is discussed in Chapter 8.
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Print User Assumptions: This option prints the user assumptions to the systems printer.
About E-GAS: This provides a summary of the E-GAS program and its components.
Exit: This option returns the user to the operating system after leaving E-GAS.
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2.4 E-GAS UTILITIES
Several features are available to E-GAS users throughout the three tiers of the system.
These features are available to users whenever they are indicated on the information bars. The
screen below is from the National Model Tier.
F
HELP! Baseline Forecast Haiti Menu
Nation*!
Figure 2-2. E-GAS utilities.
The E-GAS utilities include:
• Help screens summarizing system operation
• User Assumptions under which the model is currently being run
• Main Menu option
2.4.1 Help
Pressing while running E-GAS or from the menu will display help text or a
menu of topics associated with the part of E-GAS currently being used. When the system is at
the menu, the Help screen is a menu from which the user can highlight the preferred topic and
choose it by pressing . The Help provides information about the specific topic
and its relation to the current execution point of the system. Help screens include instructions
on closing the help function and returning to regular system operation.
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2.4.2 User Assumptions
Pressing while running E-GAS returns information on the user assumptions under
which the model is operating. The assumptions—including the chosen national model, changes
in policy variables, and model response suppressions—are summarized in full-screen windows.
The assumptions are presented for the current tier, if it has previously been run, as well as
preceding tiers.
2.4.3 Abort Execution
Pressing while the system is performing calculations will end the data processing
and return the user to the menu bar. This is convenient when the user realizes that the current
tier has been misspecified through choice of an inappropriate model, policy variable changes, or
model response suppressions. Aborting execution of E-GAS calculations does not undermine
data from previous runs of the current tier or data from other tiers.
In the Growth Factor Tier the option is labelled Main Menu. While this option
still aborts execution of the third tier's data processing, it also returns the user to the E-GAS
Main Menu.
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CHAPTER 3
ECONOMIC MODELS IN E-GAS
E-GAS is designed such that growth factor projection scenarios for each nonattainment
area and attainment portion of States can be made using a common assumption about future
U.S. economic activity. The national economic forecasts in E-GAS can provide a common
forecast with which to forecast regional economic growth. The nature of ozone formation
requires attention to be paid to the location as well as the level of economic activity.
National forecasts provide estimates of total economic activity. The regional model will
distribute this activity among U.S. urban areas, States, and regions. The spatial characteristics
of the regional forecasts are designed to meet the needs of the photochemical models used by
the ozone nonattainment areas.
A major component of the E-GAS system is the REMI EDFS-14 economic model.
The major advantage of the REMI system is its ability to distribute modelled national growth
to smaller modelling regions comprising the United States. The REMI model also contains a
national economic growth model, which creates national growth projections for distribution by
the regional model. The REMI national model can create forecasts from its own data or other
compatible national forecasts. E-GAS allows the user to specify national macroeconomic
forecasts to produce the outputs necessary to run the regional model.
In the REMI regional models, growth is affected by a number of factors, including the
performance of the national economy and the relative costs of doing business in the modeled
region. The relative costs of doing business are determined endogenously, although the user
may simulate policies which would affect the relative costs in a region. The growth or
decline of the national economy, however, is determined outside of the regional model.1 The
choice of national forecast is left solely to the user. This choice can have a large impact on
the estimates of growth in the region being modeled.
3.1 THE BLS / REMI U.S. FORECAST
The REMI U.S. forecast is based on the BLS Trend-2000 forecast. The BLS forecast
provides "fundamental information" for use in the REMI national and regional models. The
methodology for projecting U.S. final demand by industry relies on the creation of technical
coefficient matrices for each historical and forecasted year. This methodology involves
developing an input-output model for the years for which BLS provides input-output accounts
(1982, 1986, and 2000).2 The BLS forecasts include employment and output by industry, as
well as Gross National Product (GNP). The final demand components of the BLS forecast
are used to drive the input-output models, resulting in a prediction of intermediate demand for
and output by industries.
3.2 WHARTON ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING ASSOCIATES (WEFA)
The WEFA Group produces short- and long-term economic forecasts of U.S. economic
activity. The short-term forecasts range from 10 to 13 quarters (2.5 to 3.25 years) and are
issued monthly. The long-term forecasts are 25-year forecasts which are issued quarterly. In
addition to the baseline short-term forecast, the WEFA Group provides two alternative
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forecasts focusing on macroeconomic risks and their probable effects on industries. The
25-year forecasts include trend, cycle, and two alternative forecasts.3
The WEFA Group uses Mark 9, a quarterly economic model developed at WEFA, to
produce its short- and long-term forecasts. The model is comprised of over 1200 equations
and contains a "satellite" industry model which produces detailed industrial forecasts using
outputs from the core macroeconomic model.4 The Mark 9 model contains the following nine
major sectors:
1. personal consumption expenditures
2. fixed investment
3. inventory investment
4. government
5. international trade
6. labor market
7. wages and prices
8. financial market
9. income
Variables in the model include consumption, investment, income, and inflation data from the
National Income and Product Accounts; population, employment, and wage rate data from the
BLS; industrial production data from the Federal Reserve Board; and demand, production, and
price data for the auto, housing, and energy sectors of the economy.4
The long-term economic forecasts are issued in a two-volume report. The first volume
of the report covers the trend or moderate growth scenario and contains an overview of the
forecast results and detailed sector reviews of the population, housing, investment,
government, inflation, labor market, industrial activity, and energy forecasts in addition to
tables detailing the sector forecasts.4
The REMI models may be run using 92 forecasted variables from WEFA. These 92
variables include 25 final demand variables. WEFA also forecasts housing and energy
variables which may be used in E-GAS development and simulations. Mark 9 forecasts
detailed energy price, supply, demand, and consumption variables. The model also forecasts
housing variables including housing starts, sales, stocks, and prices. A REMI interface for
WEFA data has been developed and tested.
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3.3 REFERENCES
1. Regional Economic Models, Inc. Operator's Manual for a Single Region EDFS-14
Conjoined Forecasting and Simulation Model. REMI Reference Set, Volume 2.
Regional Economic Models, Inc., Amherst, MA. 1991.
2. Shao, G., and G. Treyz. Building a U.S. and Regional Forecasting and Simulation
Model. Research Paper, Regional Economic Models, Inc., Amherst, MA. 1991.
3. Randall, Tony, Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. Telecon with Teresa
Lynch, Alliance Technologies Corporation. April, 1992.
4. Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. Mark 9 Model Reference. The WEFA
group, Bala Cynwyd, PA. January, 1990.
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CHAPTER 4
POLICY VARIABLE CHANGES
4.1 INTRODUCTION
By changing policy variables, the user is allowed to simulate the economic impact of
anticipated government policy changes, market changes, or other exogenous changes to the
regional economy. The effect of a policy change is the difference between a baseline forecast
and the simulation forecast with policy variable changes.
In the E-GAS model, there are over 100 regular economic policy variables, translator
policy variables (which control combinations of economic policy variables), and population
variables that can be adjusted. These variables are accessed from the REMIEDFS-14 model and
offer scenarios for changes in tax rates (corporate profit tax, equipment tax, investment tax,
personal income tax, and property tax), costs (including relative production cost, import cost, and
export cost), wage rate, employment transfer payments, purchasing power, and final demand.
Policy variables have default values for baseline scenarios. Variables which describe
additive changes have defaults of 0 and multiplicative variables use 1 for the default. Therefore,
entered values for additive changes will represent the injection (of dollars, employees, etc.) into
the economy and values for multiplicative phenomena will represent the ratio of the new value
(cost, tax points, etc.) to the default.
The policy variables in E-GAS are grouped into three categories, regular economic policy
variables, translator variables, and population variables. These categories are broken into
subcategories containing the individual variables which can be changed by the user. Category,
subcategory, and variable descriptions follow.
4.2 REGULAR POLICY VARIABLES
Employment
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - NONDUR.(20-23,26-31)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - MINING(10,12-14)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - CONSTRUCTION 15-17)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - TRANSP+PUB UT(40-49)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - FIN, INS,+ RE(60-67)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - RETAIL TRADE(52-59)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - WHOLESALE TR(50,51)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - SERVICE(70-79,80-89)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - AGRI/F/F SERV(07-09)
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - STATE & LOCAL GOVT
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - FEDERAL CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - FEDERAL MILITARY
EMPLOYMENT CHNG - AGRICULTURE
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Mining
Construction
Transportation and Public Utilities
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Services
Agriculture, Farm, and Fishing Services
State and Local Government
Federal Civilian Government
Federal Military
Agriculture
Policy variables for employment can be used to simulate the growth of the labor force
which is not attributable to factors from within the region. The opening of a major appliance
manufacturing factory in the region would increase employment in the durable goods sector. The
value entered should be in thousands (1000s) of employees.
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Non-government Final Demand
FINAL DEM PCE AUTOS & PARTS
FINAL DEM PCE FURN & HH EQUP
FINAL DEM PCE OTHER DURABLES
FINAL DEM - PCE FOOD & BEVERAGES
FINAL DEM - PCE CLOTHING AND SHOES
FINAL DEM - PCE GASOLINE & OIL
FINAL DEM - PCE FUEL OIL & COAL
FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER NONDURABLES
FINAL DEM PCE HOUSING
FINAL DEM PCE HSEHLD OPERATION
FINAL DEM - PCE TRANSPORT + PUB UT
FINAL DEM PCE HEALTH SERVICES
FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER SERVICES
FINAL DEM INV RESIDENTIAL
FINAL DEM - INV NON RESIDENTIAL
FINAL DEM - INV PROD DUR EQUIP
Autos and Parts
Furniture and Household Equipment
Other Durables
Food and Beverages
Clothing and Shoes
Gasoline and Fuel
Fuel Oil and Coal
Other Nondurables
Housing
Household Operation
Transportation and Public Utilities
Health Services
Other Services
Residential Investment
Nonresidential Investment
Durable Equipment Investment
Non-government final demand represents consumer spending and investment in the region.
The combination of this section and government spending represent final demand for the region.
Intermediate demand for products to subsequently be used in industry is not included. This
section can be used to anticipate economic impacts of changes in consumer behavior. For
example, the economic effects of introducing appealing, popular electric automobiles could be
explored by deflating the consumer spending for gasoline and oil increasing the Transportation
and Public Utilities (in areas where electricity is publicly provided). Consumer spending should
be entered as millions of dollars.
Government Final Demand
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC-EDUC
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC HLTHAVLFAR
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC SAFETY
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC OTHER
State and Local Government Education
State and Local Government Health and Welfare
State and Local Government Public Safety
State and Local Government Other
Government Final Demand represents the public sector's purchase of finished products.
For example, purchase of new fire-fighting equipment would represent government spending for
safety, but any increases in staff expenses would represent an increase in employment.
Relative Cost Change
REL COST CHANGE - DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
REL COST CHANGE - NONDUR.(20-23,26-31)
REL COST CHANGE - MINING(10,12-14)
REL COST CHANGE - CONSTRUCTION 15-17)
REL COST CHANGE - TRANSP+PUB UT(40-49)
REL COST CHANGE - FIN, DSfS,+ RE(60-67)
REL COST CHANGE - RETAIL TRADE(52-59)
REL COST CHANGE - WHOLESALE TR(50,51)
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Mining
Construction
Transportation and Public Utilities
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
CH-93-10
4-2
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REL COST CHANGE - SERVICE(70-79,80-89) Services
REL COST CHANGE - AGRI/F/F SERV(07-09) Agriculture, Farm, and Fishing Services
Relative cost change represents changes in production costs due to a policy change. The
relative change in costs needs to be entered as a multiplier, where values greater than one
represent increases in cost and values less than one represent lower costs. The default value of
one equals the national average for the category. Therefore additional health regulations placed
on agriculture could require entry of an AGRI/F/F variable greater than one.
Industry Demand
DEMAND CHANGE - DURABLE(24,25,32-39) Durable Goods
DEMAND CHANGE - NONDUR.(20-23,26-31) Nondurable Goods
DEMAND CHANGE - MXNTNG(10,12-14) Mining
DEMAND CHANGE - CONSTRUCTION 15-17) Construction
DEMAND CHANGE - TRANSP+PUB UT(40-49) Transportation and Public Utilities
DEMAND CHANGE - FIN, INS,+ RE(60-67) Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
DEMAND CHANGE - RETAIL TRADE(52-59) Retail Trade
DEMAND CHANGE - WHOLESALE TR(50,51) Wholesale Trade
DEMAND CHANGE - SERVICE(70-79,80-89) Services
DEMAND CHANGE - AGRI/F/F SERV(07-09) Agriculture, Farm, and Fishing Services
Industry demand describes sales of intermediate goods which will be incorporated into
the final product of another industry. Increased sales of motors for electric vehicles would be
an increase in industrial demand. The default value of one equals the national average for the
category. Changes in industry demand is entered in millions of dollars.
(Relative) Fuel Costs
REL ELEC FUEL COSTS CHNG - COMM Relative Price of Commercial Electric
REL ELEC FUEL COSTS CHNG - IND Relative Price of Industrial Electricity
REL NATRL GAS FUEL COSTS CHNG - COMM Relative Price of Commercial Natural
REL NATRL GAS FUEL COSTS CHNG - IND Relative Price of Industrial Natural Gas
REL RESIDUAL FUEL COSTS CHNG - COMM Relative Price of Commercial Oil
REL RESIDUAL FUEL COSTS CHNG -IND Relative Price of Industrial Oil
Relative fuel cost change represents changes in industrial and commercial fuel costs due
to a policy change. The relative change in costs needs to be entered as a multiplier, where values
greater than one represent increases in cost and values less than one represent lower costs.
Tax Rates
CORPORATE PROFIT TAX RATE Corporate Profit Tax Rate
EQUIPMENT TAX RATE Equipment Tax Rate
INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT Investment Tax Credit
PROPERTY TAX RATE Property Tax Rate
Changes in business tax rates attributable to policy changes are entered as the change in
percentage points charged.
CH-93-10
4-3
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PERSONAL TAXES Personal Taxes
Changes in personal taxes attributable to policy changes are entered as the change in
millions of dollars collected.
Purchasing Power
CHANGE IN PURCHASING POWER Change in Purchasing Power
Purchasing power represents the amount of disposable income available to consumers.
Changes in the purchasing power of consumers are entered as millions of dollars.
4.3 TRANSLATOR POLICY VARIABLES
Translator policy variables can be used to automatically change the series of regular
economic policy variables associated with the output of a variety of industrial/service/government
sectors.
New Utilities and Facilities
New communications facilities
New electric utility facilities
New water supply and sewer facilities
New gas utility and pipeline facilities
New roads
New local transit facilities
New conservation and development facilities
Changes in production from new utilities and facilities can be simulated by entering the
changes in spending in millions of dollars.
Transit
Local government passenger transit
State and local electric utilities
State and local govt enterprises, nee
Changes in production from transit and other public enterprises can be simulated by
entering the changes in spending in millions of dollars.
Purchase of Electricity and Natural Gas
Electricity; PCE
Natural gas; PCE
Changes in the final demand for electricity and natural gas should be entered as millions
of dollars.
CH-93-10 4-4
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Local Transportation Expenditures
Bus and trolley car transportation; PCE
Taxicabs; PCE
Commuter rail transportation; PCE
Railway transportation; PCE
Intercity bus; PCE
Changes in final demand for the various modes of local transportation should be entered
in millions of dollars.
State and Local Government Expenditures
Elementary and secon. education; State & Local Govt (SL Govt)
Higher education; SL Govt
Other education and libraries; SL Govt
Health and hospitals; SL Govt
Public assistance and relief; SL Govt
Sewerage; SL Govt
Sanitation; SL Govt
Police; SL Govt
Fire; SL Govt
Corrections; SL Govt
Highways; SL Govt
Water and air facilities; SL Govt
Transit utilities; SL Govt
Other commerce and transportation; SL Govt
Gas and electric utilities; SL Govt
Water; SL Govt
Urban renewal and community facilities; SL Govt
Natural and agricultural resources and recreation; SL Govt
Other general government; SL Govt
Changes in final demand for the services of local government should be entered in
millions of dollars.
CH-93-10
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4.4 POPULATION VARIABLE
Public Amenity Term
The public amenity term represents changes in the quality of life and appeal of a region.
This term is an indicator for the morbidity, crime, visibility or other characteristics of a region.
This is defined as a real wage gain to migrants and can be interpreted as the portion of a
migrant's salary which is equivalent to the quality of living in the area.
The values for the public amenity term are entered as the equivalent proportion of migrant
earnings gained in quality of life. For example, if it is estimated that migrants value the effects
of certain pollution control measures at one half of one percent of their income, then the entered
value should be 0.5. If the negative environmental and convenience effects of reducing public
transit is equivalent to losing one percent of the migrants' income, then the entered value should
be -1.0.
CH-93-10 4-6
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CHAPTER 5
MODEL SUPPRESSIONS
When running the national or regional tiers of E-GAS, the user is given the option of
suppressing model responses. Such suppressions dissolve links between key elements of the
model. The decision to suppress model responses should be carefully considered, since changes
in the structure of the model can reverberate throughout the forecasting process and undermine
the credibility of the results. The available model suppressions are described below.
Wage Response Suppression
If this response is suppressed, the wage rates in the baseline forecast and the simulation will not
be connected to changes in occupational demand or changes in relative economic opportunity
(REO).
Labor Intensity Response Suppression
If this is suppressed, labor intensity in the baseline forecast and in the simulation is not
influenced by local determinants of the labor force, but instead maintains the value appearing for
the most recent year recorded by the model.
Net Migration Response Suppression
If this is suppressed, net migration will not respond to changes in REO, relative wage rate
(RWR), and relative wage mix (RWM) and will be kept at zero in the baseline forecast and the
simulation.
Regional Price Coefficients' (RPC) Response to Gross Regional Product (GRP) and Selling
Price Suppression
When this is suppressed, the regional purchase coefficients are fixed for the baseline forecast and
simulated at the value appearing for the most recent year recorded by the model.
Regional Price Coefficients' (RPC) Response to Gross Regional Product (GRP) Only
Suppression
This suppression changes exogenous RPC response to GRP to endogenous response (as output
expands, RPC's will increase, and vice versa), but retains endogenous response to selling price
with either setting.
Export Response Suppression
If this is suppressed, exports will not respond to changes in relative costs or changes in
profitability.
Consumer Price Index CPI-WAGE Response Suppression
When this is suppressed, increases in the consumer price index (CPI) are not transmitted to
wages.
CH-92-107
5-1
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House-Land Price Response Suppression
If this response is suppressed, house price and land price will not fluctuate with the market, but
will be fixed in the forecast years with the value appearing for the most recent year recorded by
the model.
Property Income Response to Population Suppression
If this response is suppressed, property income will not respond to a change in the population
density (population of the region relative to the United States).
Transfer Payment Response to Dependent Population Suppression
Similar to property income, transfer payments will not respond to a change in the dependent
population of the region relative to the United States.
Local Consumption Suppression
If it is suppressed, local consumption will not respond to a change in the real disposable income
of the region relative to the United States in the forecast years.
Investment Suppression
If this response is suppressed, investment will not respond to changes in the local optimal capital
stock.
Changing the Default Status of Stock Adjustment Investment Process
This option changes default Stock Adjustment Investment Process' status (either replaces old
investment equations with stock adjustment investment equations, or vice versa). Use of the
stock adjustment investment equations leads to more immediate investment impacts during
simulations. The short-term properties will also differ.
Government Demand Response to Population Suppression
If this response is suppressed, government demand will not respond to a change in the population
of the region relative to the United States.
Changing the Default Status of Employees Per Dollar Value Added (EPV)
Endogenous EPV will endogenize productivity so that when output increases, productivity will
increase accordingly in the short run. This results in less new employment in the initial years of
a simulation.
CH-92-107 5-2
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CHAPTER 6
TIER 1: THE NATIONAL MODEL
The national tier of E-GAS provides forecasts of national economic activity to drive the
regional economic models and, subsequently, the growth factor tier. The user may choose one
of the two forecasts (BLS or WEFA) to create the national forecast. The growth forecasted by
this model is then distributed among and within regions in Tier 2. The national tier may be
changed and rerun any number of times before proceeding to Tier 2. Unless the user chooses
to change the national forecast, the national model data needs to be run only once before
advancing to or subsequently rerunning the Regional Tier; output from the National Tier is
maintained through multiple runs of subsequent tiers. Model responses may be suppressed in the
national model. Any national model suppressions should also be chosen for the regional model
and caution should be exercised before choosing any suppressions (see Chapter 5).
CH-93-10
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6.1 NATIONAL MODEL MAIN SCREEN
Upon entering the subsystem, the user is presented with this screen:
HELP! Baseline Forecast Hain Menu
fHELPt <^;jfilgl|paij^
Figure 6-1. National model main screen.
At the top of the screen are options that can be selected by pressing the first letter of the
option or highlighting the choice and pressing the key. These options are discussed
in Sections 6.2 and 6.3.
CH-93-10 6-2
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6.2 BASELINE FORECAST
Choosing the Baseline Forecast option from the National Model Main Screen leads to
the display of this screen:
National Oodc 1 :, User Assumptions
-------
2. The REMI FORECAST has 20 time periods from 1991 to 2010. Enter the number of
time periods for which new final demand data exist (include last historical period). NEW
FINAL DEMAND TIME PERIODS MAY NOT EXCEED 20.
3. For the BASELINE FORECAST and any subsequent SIMULATION, do you want to
SUPPRESS any of the normal model responses?
4. Input the last year you want the baseline forecast/simulation to extend to (latest year
available is 2010).
5. Do you have Personal Income data from WEFA?
The Baseline models ask for user input from the above list:
BLS 1990: No further user input needed
WEFA: Questions 1 - 6
After supplying all of the required additional information, the system processes the data
and returns the user to the National Model Main Screen.
6.3 MAIN MENU
Choosing the Main Menu option from the National Model Main Screen returns the user
to the E-GAS Main Menu.
CH-93-10 g_4
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CHAPTER 7
TIER 2: THE REGIONAL MODEL
The regional tier of E-GAS will provide economic growth factors for the UAM and ROM
modelling regions. E-GAS will include separate economic forecasts for extreme, severe, serious,
and moderate multi-state ozone nonattainment areas, as well as models for the attainment portions
of these States. In addition, an economic model for each State in a ROM modelling region will
be included in E-GAS.
The regional tier, Tier 2, takes input from the National Model and cannot be run unless
the national model has been run at least once. Tier 2 can be adjusted and rerun any number of
times without rerunning the national tier, unless the user wishes to change the national forecast.
The regional tier must be run before proceeding to the Growth Factor Module.
Model responses can be suppressed in the regional model. The user's model suppression
decisions in the national model must be repeated in the regional model.
A Baseline forecast must be generated within Tier 2. Baseline forecasts use the
REMI/E-GAS default settings to distribute growth within the region. Simulation forecasts may
be run if the user wishes to change policy variables for any area within their region (policy
variables are described in Chapter 5). Tier 2 may be run several times before proceeding to the
growth factor module (Tier 3): the latest regional model run will drive the growth factor module.
The user may abandon the simulation forecast by running another baseline forecast and advancing
to the Growth Factor Module. If the national forecast needs to be changed, the user should
return to Tier 1.
CH-93-10
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7.1 REGIONAL MODEL TIER MAIN SCREEN
This is the regional model's main screen:
HELP! Baseline Forecast Simulation Forecast Main Menu
Figure 1-1. Regional model main screen.
At the top of the screen are four options that can be selected by pressing the first letter
of the option or highlighting the choice and pressing the key. These options are
discussed in Sections 1.2 through 7.4.
CH-93-10 7-2
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7.2 BASELINE FORECAST
Choosing the Baseline Forecast option from the Regional Model Main Screen causes
E-GAS to take the parameters from the selected national economic forecast and apply them to
the regional modelling program. Upon completion of the regional baseline, the user is returned
to the Regional Model Tier Main Screen.
7.3 SIMULATION FORECAST
Regional simulation forecasting cannot be executed until a regional baseline scenario has
been run. Choosing the Simulation Forecast option from the Regional Model Main Screen, after
having run the baseline, leads to a sequence of screens soliciting input.
The user must provide additional information to execute simulation forecasts in Regional
Simulation Forecasting. The system requires the user to enter the ending year, as well as any
model suppressions (see chapter 5 for an explanation of model suppressions). The user may then
change one or more policy variables for any of the areas within the user's region (chapter 4
describes the E-GAS policy variables). Multiple policy variable changes should be made with
caution since excessive changes would distort any causality between results and policy variable
changes
After supplying all of the required additional information, the system processes the data
and returns the user to the Regional Model Main Screen.
7.4 MAIN MENU
Choosing the Main Menu option from the National Model Main Screen returns the user
to the E-GAS Main Menu.
CH-93-10
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CHAPTER 8
TIER 3: THE GROWTH FACTOR MODULE
The growth factor tier in E-GAS translates changes in the economic activity levels of the
most recent regional forecast to growth factors for physical output, fuel consumption, and VMT.
These growth factors will be developed for two-, three-, and four-digit SIC levels depending on
available data for developing and disaggregating the factors. These SIC-level growth factors will
be matched with SCC codes. The final output from this tier will be ASCII files containing SCC
growth factors to be used for AIRS inventories.
The growth factor tier cannot be run unless tiers 1 and 2 have been run, generating the
economic data necessary for energy consumption calculation. Tier 3 uses the following five
modules to calculate the activity growth factors from the diverse economic data produced by the
first two tiers:
Household Model of Energy by State (HOMES)
• Commercial Sector Energy Model by State (CSEMS)
• Industrial Regional Activity and Energy Demand (INRAD) Model
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Module
• Physical Output Module
E-GAS's crosswalk module translates the energy consumption factors to point, area, and
mobile SCC growth factors. The output ASCII files are named:
RES_FUEL.SCC HOMES / residential fossil fuel
• COM_FUEL.SCC CSEMS / commercial fossil fuel
• IND_FUEL.SCC INRAD / industrial fossil fuel
• ELECTRIC.SCC HOMES, CSEMS, and INRAD electric growth factors
VMT.SCC VMT / transportation
PHY.SCC PHYSICAL OUTPUT / industrial output
OTHER.SCC Growth for unclassified SCC's
The user can exit E-GAS to read and print the E-GAS output (SCC) files with an ASCII file
reader/editor.
CH-93-10
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8.1 OUTPUT FILE SELECTION SCREENS
The user has the opportunity to choose the nature of the information in the E-GAS final
output. The first data entry screens of the Growth Factor Tier allow the user to choose the years
and counties to be included in the output files.
8.1.1 Output File Format Selection Screen
Advancing from the User Assumption screen series provokes this screen:
Output File Formats
ra?fi
EPS Format
2-digit SIC Format
Growth Factor Module - HELPt User JftssumrtJohs^ Main Henu
Figure 8-1. Output file format selection screen.
The user should press the letter of the desired choice or use the up and down cursor keys
to highlight desired format and press the key. E-GAS then proceeds to the Output File
Year Selection Screen.
CH-93-10
8-2
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8.1.2 Output File Year Selection Screen
This screen appears after the file format has been chosen:
rears Available
ft 11 Vears II
rm
1992
1993
ti, ^—' or Esc
Press: to Select/Deselect Itens
to Continue Using Selected Itens
to Return to Main Menu
Selected items are identified by a 4 to their left.
Figure 8-2. Output file year selection screen.
The user should use up and down cursor keys to highlight desired years—or the All Years
option—and mark the highlighted selection by pressing the space bar. The user should press the
key when all of the desired choices have been marked. E-GAS then proceeds to the
Output File Area selection Screen. If All Years is one of the marked choices, the system will
ignore any individual year selections and print data for all of the available years.
The size of the output files will be significantly smaller if only the desired areas, counties,
and years are selected.
CH-93-10
8-3
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8.1.3 Output File Area/State/County Selection Screens
After the years to be included in output have been selected, the desired areas of the REMI
region can be chosen.
Available Areas
All Model Areas
Boston Area
Greater Connecticut Area
Portsmouth Area
Prouidence Area
Springfield Area
Rest of Neu Hampshire Area
Maine Area
TA scroll, 4—' selects, Esc exits
Press: to Select/Deselect Items
to Continue Using Selected Items
to Return to Main Menu
Selected items are identified by a J to their left.
Growth Factor Nodule „ HELP! ^ User Assumptions
Figure 8-3. Output file area selection screen.
Use the up and down cursor keys to highlight desired areas—or the All Model Areas
option—and mark the highlighted selection by pressing the space bar. The user should press the
key when all of the desired choices have been marked.
After the user chooses the area of interest, states and counties within the chosen area can
be selected through similar screens. The system proceeds to the VMT Data Source Screen after
the areas, states, and counties have been chosen.
CH-93-10
8-4
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8.2 VMT DATA ENTRY SEQUENCE
The user has several options for entering VMT data. The user can enter data from the
keyboard or through user-prepared files. The E-GAS VMT module can be chosen, avoiding any
need for user data, or the VMT section can be omitted from E-GAS.
8.2.1 VMT Data Source Screen
The following is the first screen in the VMT data entry sequence:
Do you uant to use the E-GAS VMT forecast?
(Select one option and press return)
1) Use E-GAS UMT nodule
2) Enter user UMT grouth factors fron the keyboard
3) Enter user UMT grouth factors from a file
4) Skip UMT section
Enter selection
Esc exits
Grouth Factor Module - HELP
User assumptions
Hain ftenu
Figure 8-4. VMT data screen.
If the user selects the E-GAS VMT module or elects to skip the VMT module, the system
proceeds to calculate the output files and returns to the Main Menu. If the Enter user VMT
growth factors from the keyboard or Enter user VMT growth factors from a file are chosen, the
system advances to the VMT Data Detail Screen. exits the Growth Factor Module before
data processing begins.
CH-93-10
8-5
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8.2.2 VMT Data Detail Screen
When the Enter user VMT growth factors from the keyboard or Enter user VMT growth
factors from a file options are chosen from the VMT Data Screen, this screen is produced:
SELECT METHOD TO BE USED FOB EHTEBIHG unt enoUiH radons"
Barnstable County:
Select one option
1) One grouth factor for all UMT SCCs
Z) Grouth factors by road type
3) Grouth factors by road type and uehicle type
4) Mo grouth factors for this county
Enter selection
Esc exits
Grouth Factor nodule
User Assumptions
Figure 8-5. VMT data detail screen.
Main Hem
This screen is used to choose the VMT data inputs which are appropriate for the level of
detail found in the user's data. The higher levels of detail are accommodated by the choices
found lower on the list. When Enter user VMT growth factors from a file has been chosen from
the VMT Data Screen, the user is prompted for the file name; if Enter user VMT growth factors
from the keyboard is chosen, the system moves to the appropriate VMT data entry screen.
CH-93-10
8-6
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8.2.3 VMT Data Entry Screens
After defining the VMT data table, a screen for entering data into the table is provided.
The user can accept the entered data by pressing or exit by pressing . The three
available tables are shown here. Only the table chosen with the VMT Data Detail Screen is
produced by the system.
If the VMT data are being entered from the keyboard, screens for choosing the area, state,
and counties for the entered data are provided. These screens are identical to the output file area,
state, and county screens (Section 8.1.3) in appearance and operation. Since there are no VMT
defaults for manual data entry, VMT calculations will not be performed on counties not addressed
in user input.
CH-93-10 8-7
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SELECT MEtHQD tO m USED FtiR ENTERING UMt GfiflUtH FftCtdRS"
Grotriii Factor! Hodule 'OF0 HELPt
Figure 8-6. Single growth factor screen.
Merita
CH-93-10
8-8
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EHTEB WIT GROUTH FACTORS FOB Barnstable County, Massachusetts
Growth Factors by Road Type for the Year 1991
ROAD TYPE
Interstate: Rural
Other Principal Arterial: Rural
Minor Arterial: Rural
Major Collector: Rural Total
Minor Collector: Rural Total
Local: Rural
Interstate: Urban
Other Freeways & Expressways: Urban
Other Principal Arterial: Urban
Minor Arterial: Urban
Collector: Urban
Local: Urban
FACTOR
= Select Road Type Saue Exit Without Sauing
Growth Factor Module HELPM 1 , User Assumptions Jtein flewi
Figure 8-7. Growth factor by road type screen.
CH-93-10
8-9
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ENTER WIT GBflMTH FACTORS FOB Barnstable County
== Growth Factors by Uehicle and Road Types for Year 1991
LDGU 1. Interstate: Rural p "(WoTo™™
LDGU 2. Other Principal Arterial: Rural i|] '
LDGU 3. Minor Arterial: Rural j]
LDGU 4. Major Collector: Rural Total J] !
LDGU 5. Minor Collector: Rural Total |]
LDGU 6. Local: Rural il
LDGU 7. Interstate: Urban |]
LDGU 8. Other Freeways & Expressways: Urban [ j]
LDGU 9. Other Principal Arterial: Urban [ j] j
LDGU 10. Minor Arterial: Urban [j]
LDGU 11. Collector: Urban [ i]
LDGU 12. Local: Urban [1]
Select Ti Scroll Saue Exit Without Sauing
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
Growth ;taaijr ftedule ; ' "'HEtPJ :v^v; 7)flp2> ;User
Figure 8-8. Growth factor by road and vehicle type screen
'Henul
CH-93-10
8-10
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CHAPTER 9
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
In the event that the on-line help function and this user guide are unable to answer
questions about E-GAS, please call Sue Kimbrough of the Environmental Protection Agency at
(919) 541-2612 or write to
Sue Kimbrough
AEERL/MD-62
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Please have the following information available:
• Hardware issues
hardware configuration
type of computer
amount of memory
display type
peripherals
• Any memory-resident software used—including network drivers
• The version of DOS being used
• Specific description of the problem
CH-93-10 9-1
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APPENDIX A
E-GAS MODELLING AREAS
CH-93-10 A-l
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MODELLING AREA 1: EPA REGION 1
Boston-Lawrence-Worcester Nonattainment Area, except Rockingham CO (included in
Portsmouth, NH area model)
Greater CT Nonattainment Area, except Litchfield and Fairfield Counties (will be included in
Region 2/3 NYC area model)
Portsmouth-Dover-Rochester Nonattainment Area
Providence Nonattainment Area (All of Rhode Island)
Springfield (Western MA) Nonattainment Area
Attainment Portion of New Hampshire
State of Maine
State of Vermont
MODELLING AREA 2: EPA REGIONS 2 AND 3
New York-New Jersey-Long Island Nonattainment Area, including Connecticut counties of
Fairfield and Litchfield
Baltimore Nonattainment Area
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Nonattainment Area
Washington, D.C. Nonattainment Area
Huntington-Ashland (WV-KY) Nonattainment Area, including Kentucky Counties of Boyd
and Greenup
Attainment Portion of New York
Attainment Portion of New Jersey
Attainment Portion of Pennsylvania
Attainment Portion of Delaware
Attainment Portion of Virginia
Attainment Portion of West Virginia
Attainment Portion of Maryland
CH-93-10 A-2
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MODELLING AREA 3: EPA REGION 4
Atlanta Nonattainment Area
Cincinnati-Hamilton (OH-KY) Nonattainment Area, including Ohio counties of Butler,
Clermont, Hamilton, and Warren
Huntington-Ashland (WV-KY) Nonattainment Area, Including West Virginia Counties of
Cabell and Wayne
Louisville (KY-IN) Nonattainment Area, including Indiana Counties of Clark and Floyd
Attainment Portion of Kentucky
Attainment Portion of Georgia
State of Tennessee
State of North Carolina
State of Mississippi
State of Alabama
State of South Carolina
State of Florida
MODELLING AREA 4: EPA REGION 5
Chicago-Gary-Lake County Nonattainment Area
Milwaukee-Racine Nonattainment Area
Muskegon Nonattainment Area
Sheboygan Nonattainment Area
Cincinnati- Hamilton (OH-KY) Nonattainment Area, including Kentucky counties of Boone
and Campbell
Louisville (KY-IN) Nonattainment Area, including Kentucky counties of Bullit, Jefferson, and
Oldham
St. Louis Nonattainment Area, including Missouri counties of Franklin, Jefferson, St. Charles,
St.Louis, an the City of St. Louis
Attainment Portion of Illinois
Attainment Portion of Indiana
Attainment Portion of Wisconsin
Attainment Portion of Ohio
Attainment Portion of Michigan
CH-93-10 A-3
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MODELLING AREA 5: EPA REGION 6
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Area
Baton Rouge Nonattainment Area
Beaumont-Port Arthur Nonattainment Area
El Paso Nonattainment Area
Attainment Portion of Texas
Attainment Portion of Louisiana
State of New Mexico
State of Oklahoma
State of Arkansas
MODELLING AREA 6: EPA REGION 7
St. Louis Nonattainment Area, including Dlinois Counties of Madison, Monroe, and St. Clair
Attainment Portion of Missouri
State of Kansas
State of Nebraska
State of Iowa
MODELLING AREA 7: EPA REGIONS 8 AND 10
State of Colorado
State of Utah
State of Wyoming
State of North Dakota
State of South Dakota
State of Montana
State of Idaho
State of Oregon
State of Washington
MODELLING AREA 8: EPA REGION 9
Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin Nonattainment Area
Southeast Desert Modified AQMA Nonattainment Area
San Diego Nonattainment Area
Ventura County Nonattainment Area
Sacramento Metro Nonattainment Area
San Joaquin Valley Nonattainment Area
Attainment Portion of California
State of Nevada
State of Arizona
CH-93-10 A-4
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APPENDIX B
FILE FORMAT FOR E-GAS NATIONAL WEFA FORECAST
CH-93-10 B-l
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WHARTON ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING ASSOCIATES (WEFA)
FILENAME: WEFADAT.US
FORMAT:
YEAR 1 VARIABLE 1
YEAR 2 VARIABLE 1
VARIABLE 2
VARIABLE 2
VARIABLES
VARIABLES
VARIABLE 92
VARIABLE 92
YEAR N VARIABLE 1 VARIABLE 2 VARIABLE 3 VARIABLE 92
WHERE: Year 1 is the first year for which you have alternate source data
(must be the same as the last year of REMI historical data)
Year N is the last year for which you have alternate source data
Variable 1 ... Variable 92 are the 92 alternative source variables
for each year
THE 92 VARIABLES CONSIST OF:
1. Final demand - auto and parts
2. Final demand - furniture and household equipment
3. Final demand - other durables
4. Final demand - clothing and shoes
5. Final demand - food and beverage
6. Final demand - gasoline and oil
7. Final demand - fuel oil and coal
8. Final demand - other non-durables
9. Final demand - total services; used to calculate other services
10. Final demand - housing
11. Final demand - health services
12. Final demand - household operation
13. Final demand - transportation
14. Interest rate
15. Final demand - federal government military
16. Final demand - federal government civilian
17. Final demand - part of state and local government
18. Final demand - part of state and local government
19. Final demand - part of state and local government
20. Final demand - part of state and local government
21. Part 1 of prod. dur. equipment
22. Non-residential investment
23. Residential investment and part 2 of prod. dur. equipment
24. Part 2 of prod. dur. equipment
25. Final demand - CBI
CH-93-10
B-2
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26. Investment tax credit
27. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 23
28. Employment EDFS-53 Industry #31, 32, 33, 34
29. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 51, 52
30. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 50
31. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 1
32. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 2
33. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 3
34. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 4
35. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 5
36. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 6
37. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 7
38. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 8
39. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 9
40. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 10
41. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 11
42. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 12
43. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 13
44. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 14
45. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 15
46. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 16
47. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 17
48. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 18
49. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 19
50. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 20
51. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 21
52. Employment EDFS-53 Industry. # 22
53. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 29
54. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 24, 25, 26, 27, 28
55. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 30
56. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48
57. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 35, 36, 37
58. Employment EDFS-53 Industry # 49
59. Unused (please put a zero)
60. Population
61. Consumer price index
62. Unused (please put a zero)
63. Final demand - exports - autos
64. Final demand - consumer goods - durable
65. Final demand - consumer goods - non-durable
66. Final demand - demand - food, feed, beverage
67. Final demand - industrial supply - durable
68. Final demand - industrial supply - non-durable
69. Final demand - capital goods, excluding autos
70. Final demand - other
71. Final demand - services including factor income
CH-93-10 B-3
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72. Final demand - imports - autos
73. Final demand - consumer goods - durable
74. Final demand - consumer go is - non-durable
75. Final demand - food, feed, bi, erage
76. Final demand - industrial supply - durable
77. Final demand - industrial supply - non-durable
78. Final demand - capital goods, excluding autos
79. Final demand - other
80. Final demand - petroleum
81. Final demand - services including factor income
82. Transfer payments
83. Personal contributions to social insurance
84. Corporate profit tax rate
85. Total wage bill
86. Dividends
87. Unused (please put a zero)
88. Unused (please put a zero)
89. Interest
90. Personal income
91. Disposable income
92. Rent
CH-93-10 B_4
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APPENDIX C
FILE FORMATS FOR E-GAS VEHICLE
MILES TRAVELED (VMT) INPUT
CH-93-10
C-l
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E-GAS VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED (VMT) INPUT FILE FORMAT
Filename: chosen by user
1. For one growth factor for all VMT SCCs.
FORMAT:
STATE COUNTY YEAR FACTOR
2. For one growth factor for each road type.
FORMAT:
STATE COUNTY YEAR ROAD TYPE FACTOR
ROAD TYPE CODES:
11 - Interstate - Rural
13 - Other principal arterial - Rural
15 - Minor Arterial - Rural
17 - Major Collector - Rural Total
19 - Minor Collector - Rural Total
21 - Local Rural
23 - Interstate - Urban
25 - Other freeways and expressways - Urban
27 - Other principal arterial - Urban
29 - Minor arterial - Urban
31 - Collector - Urban
33 - Local - Urban
3. For one growth factor for each road and vehicle type combination.
FORMAT:
STATE COUNTY YEAR ROAD TYPE VEHICLE TYPE FACTOR
ROAD TYPE CODES:
11 - Interstate - Rural
13 - Other principal arterial - Rural
15 - Minor Arterial - Rural
17 - Major Collector - Rural Total
19 - Minor Collector - Rural Total
21 - Local Rural
23 - Interstate - Urban
25 - Other freeways and expressways - Urban
27 - Other principal arterial - Urban
29 - Minor arterial - Urban
31 - Collector - Urban
33 - Local - Urban
CH-93-10 - C-2
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VEHICLE TYPE CODES:
1001 - Light duty gasoline vehicle
1020 - Light duty gasoline truck 1
1040 - Light duty gasoline truck 2
1060 - Light duty gasoline truck total
1070 - Heavy duty gasoline vehicle
0001 - Light duty diesel vehicle
0060 - Light duty diesel truck
0070 - Heavy duty diesel vehicle
where:
STATE = 2-digit Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code
COUNTY = 3-digit FIPS code
YEAR = 4-digit year
ROAD TYPE = 2-digit road type code
VEHICLE TYPE = 4-digit vehicle type code
FACTOR = Growth Factor (e.g., .1, 1.1, 1.12, 1.123, etc.)
NOTE: When creating this file, at least one space must exist between each
field. Since the system is capable of handling floating point decimals, the
growth factor character length and position of the decimal is flexible. In
addition, do not use the following file names when creating the VMTfile:
VMT_OUT.DAT or VMT_OUT.SCC. These file names are created by the
system when processing either the EGAS default VMT data or when
processing user supplied VMT data. Using these file names could cause a
loss of data or could cause the system to crash.
CH-93-10 C-3
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1 REPORT NO.
EPA-600/R-93-067b
2.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
-.TITLE ANDSUBTIlLt
Economic Growth Analysis System: User's Guide
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
I tUHIMIUMl- ncrun i L//-> • "
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing!^
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO
April 1993
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Randy Randolph
8. PERFOR
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
TRC Environmental Corporation
100 Europa Drive, Suite 150
Chapel Hill. North Carolina 27514
10. PROGRAM ELEMEr
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-D9-0173, Task 3/302
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
EPA, Office of Research and Development
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
13 TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Task Final; 10/92 - 3/93
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/13
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES AEERL project officer is E. Sue Kimbrough, Mail Drop 62, 919/
541-2612. "a" of this series is the Reference Manual.
16. ABSTRACT..
The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides informa-
tion needed to operate, a prototype Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS)
modeling system. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of vola-
tile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO)
for ozone nonattainment areas and Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) modeling regions
The report details the design and development of the E-GAS computer modeling soft-
ware, and its relationships with internal modeling software components and external
software. The system is an economic and activity forecast model which translates
users' assumptions regarding regional economic policies and resource prices into
Source Code Classification (SCC) level growth factors for VOCs, NOx, and CO. The
report provides E-GAS users with sufficient background information to define and
calibrate the E-GAS model, as well as the procedures and syntax necessary to oper-
ate the system. The organization of the document is determined by the process used
in operating the system. The guide provides images of sample screens "as well as
text.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Pollution Volatility
Mathematical Models Emission
Analyzing Inventories
Economic Development Organic Corn
Nitrogen Oxides pounds
Carbon Monoxide
Pollution Control
Stationary Sources
Economic Growth Analy-
sis System (E-GAS)
Volatile Organic Com-
pounds
13 B
12 A
05C
07B
20M
14G
15 E
07C
8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release to Public
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report/
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
57
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
04
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