VOLUME  3
             COMMENTS ON  THE
  ADVANCE NOTItE OF PROPOSED  RULEMAKING
 "OZONE - DEPLETING CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS
     PROPOSED PRODUCTION  RESTRICTION"
                   BY  THE
     ENVIRONMENTAL  PROTECTION AGENCY
               SUBMITTED  BY
E. I. DU PONT DE NEMOURS  &  COMPANY (INC.)
           WILMINGTON,  DELAWARE
             JANUARY  5,  1981

-------
                             VOLUME 3


                        Table of Contents
X.  APPENDICES (Continued)

    A. - F.  See Volume 2

    G.  Ranking Compounds by Potential for Ozone
        Depletion - "Permit Pounds"                        G-l-9

    H.  Scope of Proposed Regulation                       H-l-13

    I.  Economic Incentives Regulatory Options             1-1-39

    J.  Chlorofluorocarbon Production and Emissions        J-l-16

    K.  Industry Funded Fluorocarbon Research
        Program - Effect of Chlorofluorocarbons on
        the Atmosphere (CMA/FPP)                            K-l-77

    L.  Uncertainties - Chlorofluorocarbon Effects
        and Stratospheric Ozone (SRI Report)                L-l-8


XI.  BIBLIOGRAPHY                                         XI-1-47

-------
X.  APPENDIX G
             RANKING COMPOUNDS BY POTENTIAL
                  FOR OZONE DEPLETION
                          G-l

-------
                           Ranking Compounds by Potential
                           for Ozone Depletion
                        Table of Contents
1.  INTRODUCTION                                  3

2.  DU PONT RANKING SCHEME                        5

3.  COMPARISON OF DU PONT vs. EPA
    RELATIVE RANKING SCHEMES                      8
                                G-2

-------
                           Ranking Compounds by Potential
                           for Ozone Depletion
1.  INTRODUCTION

              It  is  the  chlorine  in  CFC  molecules  which  is
hypothesized  to  lead  to  the  catalytic  destruction of  ozone.
Different  CFCs   potentially   contribute   different  amounts  of
chlorine  to  the  stratosphere.  Therefore,  Rand  introduced the
concept  of  "permit  pounds"  in its  Draft  Report  [Rand,   1979]
to  reflect  this  difference  between  the  various  CFC  compounds
under assessment.  Du Pont  commented  in  its  critique of  the Rand
Draft  Report  [Du Pont,  1980c] that  the  ranking  concept  made
sense in that  it  would  allow  focusing  of  regulatory attention on
those compounds with the  greatest  environmental damage potential
and  would  permit  better   evaluation  of  the  effectiveness  of
competing policy designs.

              However,  we  also  noted  [Du  Pont,  1980c]  that
although  the Rand  system  of  "permit  pounds"  was a  good  first
step,  it  was  an oversimplification  of  the  relative  potential
environmental  impact of  individual  compounds.   We offered  an
alternative  approximation which we believed to  be more rigorous.

              In  the ANPR,  EPA   has  retained  the  concept  of
relative   ranking   ("permit   pounds")   but  has  incorporated  a
relative quantitative ranking  which we  believe  is in error.   The
ANPR  references  Lawrence  Livermore  Laboratory   (LLL)   as  the
source  of  its ranking.   We  have  tried  unsuccessfully  over the
past  2  months  [Hapka,  1980]   to  obtain  this  data from  EPA  to
enable  a comparison  to our  earlier  work.   Conversations  with LLL
personnel   [Woebbles,    1980]   have  confirmed  our  preliminary
analysis that  EPA's  ranking is not correct, and  is not  based  on
the Livermore group's best assessment of the problem.
                                G-3

-------
                           Ranking Compounds by Potential
                           for Ozone Depletion
              We have discussed this  analysis  with the Livermore
group,  and  agreed   on   the  methods  which  should  be  applied.
Subsequently, we  have  updated  and  improved  our  analysis  using
the best available published data.  .We  submit  the results herein
[see  Table 1] .    The differences  between  the Du  Pont  and  EPA
ranking  are  not  trivial  [See  Table  2],  having  potentially
profound implications for the ability of  the  producers to supply
CFCs if the proposed regulations were promulgated.
                                G-4

-------
                           Ranking Compounds by Potential
                           for Ozone Depletion
2.  DU PONT RANKING SCHEME

              The  relative  potential  environmental   impact   of
CFCs  on  ozone  is  related  to  both  emissions of  the  respective
CFCs   and   their   individual    potentials    for   causing  ozone
depletion.   In  developing  a  ranking  of   the   "relative  ozone
depletion  potential"  of  the individual  CFCs, we  have  examined
the relevant  factors  and found  that one must  consider:   a)   the
CFC  molecule  chlorine  content  by  weight,   b)  the  rapidity  of
release  of  chlorine  from  the  CFC  molecule in  the  atmosphere
(i.e.  atmospheric  lifetime),   and  c)   the   efficiency  of   this
released  chlorine  in  depleting  ozone  (primarily  determined  by
the altitude  at  which chlorine  is released).  This latter factor
had been  overlooked  in previous  assessments by  both  EPA and  Du
Pont,  but  has now  been determined to  have  significant impact  on
the results.

              Determining   chlorine   content  by   weight  is   a
straightforward  calculation,  but  the  latter  two  effects   are
intimately  tied  to  model  results,  so  will  require  periodic
updating as inputs to the models  are refined.

              The  entire  problem may  be  addressed with  a model
in  one of  two ways:  a)  A steady-state model calculation may  be
made  for   a  given  annual  release,  say  one  million   tons,  of  a
single CFC.   Calculated  ozone  depletion from the model  runs  for
each  CFC  may  then  be compared  to yield the relative depletion
potential  of  each CFC,   b)  Alternatively,  the  annual emissions
of  a  given CFC  may  be adjusted  in  a series of calculations  to
determine  how many  pounds  are  necessary  to give  a  particular
value  of  potential ozone depletion,  say 5  per cent.    The pounds
required   for  differnt  CFCs  may   then  be  compared to  yield
directly the  relative depletion  potentials.
                                G-5

-------
                            Random Compounds by Potential
                            for Ozone Depletion
              Du Pont  has  chosen the latter method,  whereas the
Livermore  group [Wuebbles,  1980]  has  chosen  the  former.   The
two  methods  are  roughly   equivalent,   although  the  intimate
connection  between  the method and  the  model employed  is  likely
to  lead  to  slight,  but  inconsequential  differences  in  the
results.

              The relationship to  models also leads  to a  slight
complication  for  CFC-22  (and  for  any  other  hydrogen-containing
CFC  which   reacts   in   the   troposphere  with   hydroxyl    (OH)
radical).  This is true because  it  is likely that the models are
currently   overestimating   OH   concentrations   in   the   lower
atmosphere,   (See  Appendix  E)  and,   if   so,   the  models  are
underestimating   the   atmospheric   lifetime   of  CFC-22   and,
therefore, its chlorine contribution to the stratosphere.

              The   model-calculated  lifetime    of   CFC-22   is
approximately 12 years, whereas  most other estimates  are  in the
range  of  15-20  years.   A  calculation  of   "ozone  depletion
potential"  of  CFC-22  based on the  current  model  calculated
lifetime of  CFC-22  gives  a very small  depletion  potential.  We
have taken  a conservative  position and  adjusted  the  lifetime of
CFC-22  to  20 years,  i.e.,  we  have  assumed  that more  CFC-22
reaches the  stratosphere  (to release chlorine  which  potentially
may react with  ozone)  than the models  currently calculate.   This
leads to the  value reported  in Table 1.   It should  be emphasized
that  the  reported  "relative  ozone  depletion  potential"  for
CFC-22  is  conservatively  very  large.    It is  entirely possible
that  the  depletion  potential  is  actually smaller,  which  would
allow even  more substitution of  CFC-22 for other CFCs under any
permit pound-type system.
                                G-6

-------
                            Random Compounds by Potential
                            for Ozone Depletion
              The  critical  point  regarding CFC-22  is  that  the
depletion  potential  cited  by  EPA  is  greatly  overestimated.   A
correct treatment must account for  both  lifetime  and altitude of
chlorine  release.   We   note  further   that   such  a  treatment
actually   increases   slightly   the  "relative   ozone  depletion
potential" for CFCs  12,  113, 114,  and  115, compared  to  the  EPA
values.   We   believe  that  the  reported  factors  herein  are  a
better  representation  of  the  relative  potential  threat  to  the
ozone by individual CFCs than previously performed.
                               G-7

-------
                           Ranking Compounds by Potential
                           for Ozone Depletion

3.  COMPARISON OF DU PONT VS. EPA RELATIVE RANKING SCHEMES

              The Du  Pont  numbers, derived  as discussed  in  the
preceding  section,  are  presented below  and  compared   to  those
advanced by the EPA.

                              Table 1

                  Ranking  of CFCs by Calculated
                Relative Ozone Depletion Potential
                      (Normalized to CFC-11)

   Compound              EPA Ranking             Du Pont Ranking
                           (ANPR)

    CFC-11                   1.00                      1.00
    CFC-12                   0.79                      0.84
    CFC-113                  0.77                      0.82
    CFC-114                  0.49                      0.61
    CFC-115                  0.20                      0.35
    CFC-22                   0.18                      0.03

   The  next  step   is  to  translate  these  relative  rankings  into
   equivalent CFC pounds, based on CFC-11 = 1.0.

                               Table  2

   Compound              EPA Equivalent          Du Pont Equivalent
                             PoundsPounds

    CFC-11                    1.00                      1.00
    CFC-12                    1.26                      1.19
    CFC-113                   1.36                      1.22
    CFC-114                   2.04                      1.64
    CFC-115                   5.00                       2.86
    CFC-22                    5.56                     34.00
                                G-8

-------
                           Ranking Compounds by Potential
                           for Ozone Depletion
              Thus,  under  the EPA  numbers, CFC  producers  would
be allowed  to  manufacture 5.6 pounds  of  CFC-22 in  place  of 1.0
pound  of CFC-11   with  no  net  increase   in   potential  harm  to
stratospheric  ozone.   However,  under   the  Du Pont  numbers,  CFC
producers would be allowed to  manufacture 34^  pounds of CFC-22 in
place  of  1.0 pound  of  CFC-11,  over  a six-fold  increase.   This
difference  is  critical  because CFC-22 has  the  potential  for use
as  an   alternate   to  CFC-12  in  a   number   of   large  volume
applications.
                                G-9

-------
X.  APPENDIX H
                 SCOPE OF PROPOSED REGULATIONS
                              H-I

-------
                                   Scope of Proposal
                Table of Contents
                                                  Page
1.   INTRODUCTION                                    3

2.   JUSTIFICATION FOR PROPOSING TO CONTROL
    ONLY CFCS?                                      4

3.   JUSTIFICATION FOR PROPOSING TO CONTROL
    ALL CFCS?                                       6

4.   COUNTERPRODUCTIVITY OF PROPOSING TO
    CONTROL POTENTIAL FLUOROCARBON ALTERNA-
    TIVES - WHY REGULATE A POTENTIAL
    SOLUTION?                                       9

5.   JUSTIFICATION FOR NOT EXEMPTING
    NON-EMITTING CFC USES FROM THE PROPOSAL?       11

6.   SUMMARY                                        13
                      a-2

-------
                                            Scope of Proposal
1.  INTRODUCTION

         The only justification for  regulation  of  a chemical by
EPA is the need to control  the  production,  use or disposal of the
chemical  in  order  to  reduce risk  to  human health  or  the
environment  (hopefully on  a  cost/benefit  basis)   arising  from
current practices.  After a risk is  identified,  a regulation may
be devised  to  control  the  risk.   The regulation should focus on
the source  of  the risk  and  it should be  demonstrated  that the
regulation will,  indeed, reduce or  control  the  risk — else why
regulate?

         Opposite  this  logic,  we  find EPA's ANPR  proposals for
the control of CFCs to  be seriously deficient  in both logic and
justification.    In this  section we  question EPA's  justification
for  1)   proposing to  control  all   CFCs,  yet  neglecting  other
compounds of potential  concern  opposite  stratospheric  ozone
depletion,  2)  including  all CFCs  regardless of  lack  of techni-
cally supportable findings  that all  CFCs are of significant risk
to  stratospheric  ozone,   3)   including  in  the proposal  scope
compounds  which  potentially are  part  of  the  solution  to  CFC
depletion of ozone (if  it occurs), rather  than a significant part
of the problem,  and 4)  not  exempting CFC uses which result in no
emissions, when  the  stated concern  is over the potential effect
of CFC emissions, not the use.
                               H-3

-------
                                            Scope of  Proposal
2.   JUSTIFICATION FOR PROPOSING TO CONTROL ONLY  CFCS?

         The Clean Air Act  is  concerned with  potential  damage  to
stratospheric ozone  from  halocarbons or  other  sources. The NAS
examined CFC-11 and CFC-12 and to a lesser extent other  potential
sources of ozone depletion.   Yet EPA states in the ANPR:

         "Potential   ozone  depleters  found  outside   the CFC
         chemical family may eventually require  regulatory  action
         as well.  However,  the  present set  of  regulations would
         be  limited  to CFCs  only because there  does  not  exist
         sufficient information on other  depleters,"...
This statement should be contrasted with  the  NAS finding that:
         "Atmospheric  measurements  indicate  that  methyl chloro-
         form is contributing  between a quarter and half as many
         chlorine  atoms  to  the  stratosphere as  are  CFC-11 and
         CFC-12.   If it gains  increased  usage,  as a  substitute
         for other solvents  in degreasing and coating operations
         it may  well become the  largest  source  of stratospheric
         chlorine."   [NAS, 1979b, p. 45].
         Further  information on  the  potential  effect  of  methyl
chloroform  on  stratospheric  ozone is available  from an  EPA spon-
sored conference [EPA, 1980b] specifically on this subject.

         It  is  arbitrary  and  capricious  to  include in  the ANPR
proposal CFC-22  and  all other commercial and as yet uncommercial-
ized  CFCs   (for  many  of  which there does  not  exist quantitative
information opposite any  threat  to  the  ozone - See  section 3) ,
and  simultaneously exclude  methyl chloroform for the  same  reason
—  especially in  the face   of  information available  to the EPA
from  its  own  conference  on  methyl  chloroform,  and  the  NAS1
expressed  concern that  methyl  chloroform may  well  become  the
largest source  of  stratospheric  chlorine.
                               H-4

-------
                                                   Scope of Proposal



              A quantitative  illustration  of the  arbitrary  nature  of
    EPA's  proposal  is  developed  below,  in  Table  1.    Utilizing  the
    concept   of  relative  ranking   of   compounds  by  their  potential
    effect on  stratospheric  ozone  ("ozone  depletion  potential"  or
    permit  pounds  -  See  Appendix G) ,   the  potential  threat  to
    stratospheric ozone  is  compared for  CFC-11,  CFC-12,  CFC-22  and
    methyl chloroform.   It is seen  that the calculated relative ozone

    depletion potential  of  methyl  chloroform  is  three  times  that  of

    CFC-22 (0.09 compared to 0.03).  When  total world releases of  the

    compounds are figured in,  methyl chloroform presents  a potential
    threat to the ozone  about 20 times  that of CFC-22.


                               Table 1
                 Calculated Depletion Potentials and Relative"
            Calculated Environmental Impacts for Selected Halocarbons
           Relative
           Depletion
Compound    Potential
                        , g77
                      (10  pounds)
                           Calculated Relative
                           Environmental Impact
                           (Relative depletion
                           potential
                           x world release)
                                  Relative Environmental
                                  Impact
                                  (Ratio to CFC-22=1)
CFC-11
CFC-12
1.0 (a)
0.84 (a)
674
830
674
697.4
156.7
162.2
Methyl
Chloroform  0.09  (b)
CFC-22
0.03  (a)
930

144
                                           83.7

                                            4.3
19.5

 1.0
(a)  Calculated by Du Pont - see Appendix G.

(b)  Calculated by Du Pont in a manner identical to that described in
    Appendix G for CFCs.  The atmospheric lifetime of methyl chloro-
    form in those calculations was 8 years.
                                     a-J

-------
                                            Scope  of  Proposal
3.  JUSTIFICATION FOR PROPOSING TO CONTROL  ALL  CFCS?

         EPA states in the ANPR:

         "EPA believes  that  any  regulation of  ozone  depleters
         should   be as  comprehensive as  possible,  consequently
         this regulation  would  address all  CFCs."    (emphasis
         added).
         Notwithstanding that if the regulation is  to be compre-
hensive methyl chloroform should not be  excluded  ,   we  question
the scientific justification for including   all  CFCs under  the
proposal.

         Is  EPA's  belief  sufficient  or  is  technical  support
required?  Technical  support  for  EPA's  proposed  regulatory scope
is not  evident  in the reference most often  cited  by EPA — the
1979 NAS  report   [NAS,  1979a] .   As  EPA  correctly  states in the
ANPR:
         "NAS  examined  only two  CFCs,  CFC-11  (trichlorofluoro-
         methane)   and  CFC-12  (dichlorodifluoromethane)   because
         they represent the vast majority of all CFCs  produced."
         (emphasis added).
''"Part of  our  concern is that  methyl  chloroform competes in  the
 marketplace  with  one  of  the CFCs proposed for  regulation
 (CFC-113).    Were  CFC-113  to be  regulated,   many  users  would
 switch to methyl chloroform.
                               H-G

-------
                                            Scope  of  Proposal


         In  fact,  none of  the assessments  of potential  future
stratospheric  ozone  depletion have  included  any  CFCs  except
CFC-11 and CFC-12.  Further, to our knowledge, CFC-113,  CFC-114,
CFC-115  (all  included  in  EPA's scope)  have never  been  thoroughly
studied by EPA  or  others  specifically  opposite the  potential  of
these compounds for ozone  depletion.   And  CFC-22  has been given
only a cursory examination — acknowledged  by EPA  in  the  ANPR:

         "NAS  also briefly  considered  CFC-22  (chlorodifluoro-
         methane)  but  excluded it from the analysis because as a
         partially halogenated  compound,  its  likelihood   of
         reaching   the  stratosphere  before  dissociating  is much
         less   than   that  of   fully  halogenated  compounds."
         (emphasis added).
It  is  telling  that EPA follows this  statement  in the  ANPR with
the statement:

         "However,  the  findings  by NAS  on  the  ozone  depletion
         potential of  CFC-11  and CFC-12  are relevant  qualita-
         tively for all chlorofluorocarbons"  (emphasis added).
         Notwithstanding that no technical  support is offered for
this conclulsion,  we question the  justification for a regulation
based  on  a  qualitative  finding.    To  what extent will  EPA's
proposal reduce the alleged  risk  from CFCs  -113,  114,  115,  and
22?   No  risk determination has been made  for any  CFCs except
CFC-11 and CFC-12.

         Without study of  the potential  effect  on  ozone  from all
CFCs, any regulation must  focus only  on  CFC-11  and CFC-12    (the
only CFCs studied), although as we note  elsewhere  (Sections III,
IV  and  V)   even   the  extensive  studies  of CFC-11 and CFC-12
performed to date  do  not  support  a  finding  of unreasonable risk
from these compounds.

         An even more bizarre aspect of  EPA's proposed "shotgun"
approach is that the Agency's formula  (cnclxFyH2n  + 2-x-y; x>  °'
                               11-7

-------
                                           Scope of Proposal
y > 0  to  bound  the regulatory scope goes to  extreme  limits.   A
rigorous  following  of  this  formula would  mean that  even  high
molecular weight  polymeric  compounds  would  fall  under  the
proposed  regulatory restrictions if  they contained  any trace of
chlorine  (x  is  defined  as  >•  0  and n  is unlimited)  even though
these  materials  are nonvolatile  with no  potential for  CFC
emissions.

         Last,   the  proposed  regulatory  scope  would   include  a
number of  compounds  which, through  their potential  future  use,
could  provide part of the solution to the problem (if it exists)
of ongoing use and emissions of potential high risk CFCs such as
CFC-11 and CFC-12.   This is discussed in  the next section.
                               H-8

-------
                                            Scope of Proposal
4.  COUNTERPRODUCTIVITY OF PROPOSING TO CONTROL POTENTIAL FLUORO-
    CARBON ALTERNATIVES — WHY REGULATE A POTENTIAL SOLUTION?

         Not only  is there  little  or  no  current  scientific  or
risk justifiction for any  potential  regulation of CFCs  to extend
beyond CFC-11 and CFC-12,  but the broad proposal  in the  ANPR  to
include "all alkanes  that contain at  least one  chlorine  and one
fluorine,  including CFC-11, CFC-12,  CFC-113,  CFC-114,  CFC-115 and
CFC-22, as well  as  several other  CFCs not  presently manufactured
or manufactured only in very limited quantities" embarks EPA on a
course that will impede and limit the development and application
of potential alternatives  to  the  currently used  CFCs  thought  to
present the greatest risk.

         As an  example,  in Section  VIII and  Appendix B,  we note
that  CFC-22,  CFC-141b  and  CFC-142b  show technical  promise  as
refrigerants or blowing agent replacements  for the currently used
CFC-11  and  CFC-12   —   replacements  which due  to  a  different
chemical  structure  would  drastically  reduce  the  potential  for
stratospheric  ozone  depletion.     However,  by   including  these
compounds  in its  regulatory scheme,  EPA  has  severely  reduced
incentives to  develop  or  use these  compounds  as replacements  in
the aforementioned CFC-11  and CFC-12 uses.

         Again taking CFC-22 as an example, we showed in Appendix
G  that  a  pound  of CFC-22  was  approximately  only  1/34  the
potential  risk  to   the  ozone  of  a  pound  of  CFC-11  and  only
approximately 1/29 the potential risk  of a  pound of CFC-12.  Were
the need to arise, even partial substitution of CFC-11 and CFC-12
by CFC-22 could  reduce several-fold  the risk to the ozone.
                               li-S

-------
                                            Scope  of  Proposal
         Consistent with  this  objective,  EPA states in the  ANPR
it would  structure regulation  "...in  such a  way  as to  provide
incentives  for  industrial  users  to  shift from those   CFCs
[hypothesized  to   be]  most harmful  to the  stratosphere toward
those  CFCs  posing a  lesser   [theoretical]  threat."    Yet   the
Agency's proposal  does not create the incentive to  use CFC-22 (as
an example)  so much  as  it  creates a  disincentive to  use  it,
because  it  too  is  being regulated.   So  long as  a  potential
alternative like CFC-22 is under the proposed  overall cap on CFC
production, users  will be  reluctant  to convert to  its use due to
uncertainty over whether it would be further  restricted  in coming
years.   (See Section VII).   If  the  Agency desires to create  an
incentive  for  users  to  convert from  CFC-12  to CFC-22  (a  step
yielding an  approximate  29-fold  per pound decrease  in  potential
risk to the ozone), CFC-22 should be exempted.   Other reasons for
exempting CFC-22 are provided  in other  parts  of this Appendix.

         In  a  recent  letter   from EPA to  a   Congressional
representative [Wellford, 1980]  it  was  stated:

         "The Agency  is studying methods  to  stimulate the devel-
         opment of substitutes for  all  [CFC]  applications...."

         Not only  are we  not  aware of  any such studies but  what
the Agency has proposed creates a disincentive to use potentially
satisfactory alternatives, not a stimulus.
                               a-10

-------
                                            Scope  of  Proposal
5.  JUSTIFICATION FOR NOT EXEMPTING  NON-EMITTING CFC  USES FROM
    THE PROPOSAL?

         In its ANPR  summary  of  the  ozone depletion theory, EPA
states:
         "The  continued  worldwide  release of  CFCs  is  therefore
         troublesome...."  (emphasis  added).
and uses as a Section heading:

         "The  Risks  of  Continued   World  Chlorofluorocarbon
         Emissions" (emphasis added).
         Through  all  reports  and  discussions  on  the  issue  to
date, it has been understood  that  the  use  per  se of CFCs posed no
problem to  the  stratospheric ozone layer,  but that emissions of
CFCs  (from products and   processes) which  eventually  were
transported into  the  stratosphere were of  concern.   This  is in-
herently obvious.  The potential problem  is in  the stratosphere.
Therefore,  only those CFCs reaching the stratosphere  are of con-
cern.  Refrigerators  and  auto air-conditioning  systems do not get
into the stratosphere.   CFC  emissions  from these  and other uses
may.

         Further support  for  the logic for exempting non-emitting
uses may be found:

         •   In the  Rand Report (in  its  discussion  of economic
             incentive approaches  to  regulation):

         "The  only  exemptions from the tax  that  would  be
         recommended   by   efficiency  and  effectiveness  criteria
         would  be  for CFCs used in applications where there are
         no  emissions,   such  as  when  the  CFC  is   used   as  a
         precursor for   producing  other   chemicals  that do not
         deplete ozone."   [Rand, 1980, p.  240].
                               H-II

-------
                                            Scope  of Proposal
         •   And even more tellingly,  in  EPA's  Development Plan -
             "Chlorofluorocarbons  -  Phase I"  [EPA,  1980e, p. 8]:

         "Some CFCs are used as intermediates  in the  manufacture
         of  non-ozone  depleting substances.   This use  of CFCs
         should probably  only  be  controlled to  the extent that
         CFCs are released during  the  process."

         Yet  inexplicably,  the ANPR  does  not provide  for  the
exemption of non-emitting  CFC  uses —  in  fact,  does not even make
mention of them.

         The major CFC use resulting in no emissions is CFC-22 as
an  intermediate  in  the  production  of fluoropolymers.   The  end
products  are  not   potential   ozone  depleting substances.
Therefore, this CFC use should be  exempted from the proposals  and
all assessments and projections of  production,  use  and emissions
should exclude this and like CFC uses.
                               H-12

-------
                                       Scope  of Proposal
6.   SUMMARY
    •   Any proposed rule  should  be  restricted to CFC-11 and
        CFC-12 because:

        a)  There is no technical  support for EPA regulating
        all CFCs  when all  technical  studies to  date have
        restricted their assessments 'to  CFC-11  and CFC-12.
        Further,   EPA  has   made  no  risk  assessment  of  the
        potential  effect  on the  ozone  of any  CFCs  except
        CFC-11 and CFC-12,  nor demonstrated how the  proposed
        rule would  reduce  risk from these other compounds.
        CFC-22,   in  particular,  presents  a  very  small
        potential  risk compared to CFC-11  and CFC-12.

        b)   EPA's   proposed  rule  scope  would  cover  all
        technically  promising   fluorocarbon  alternative
        compounds.  This creates  a  disincentive for further
        developement  and  will  restrict  potential  use  —
        results which are  counterproductive to the  Agency's
        stated goal of  reducing  the use  of  potential high
        risk  CFCs  (e.g.,   CFC-11  and  CFC-12)   through  the
        creation of a stimulus to encourage the development
        and use of substitutes for CFC applications.

        c)  The  use  of CFCs  which  result  in  no emissions,
        such  as  the  use  of  CFC-22 as  a chemical  inter-
        mediate, pose no potential threat  to the ozone layer
        and, therefore,  should be excluded from any further
        regulatory consideration.

    •   There  is  no justification  for  EPA regulating CFCs
        while  ignoring  the  ozone  depletion  potential  of
        other compounds, such as methyl chloroform.
                          H-i

-------
X.  APPENDIX I
                       ECONOMIC INCENTIVES
                        REGULATORY OPTIONS
                               1-1

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives  Options
                        TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                           PAGE
1.   INTRODUCTION                                             4

2.   BACKGROUND                                               7

    a.   Mandatory Controls                                   7
    b.   Economic Incentives Options - The "Why"
        and the "How"                                        8
    c.   Arguments Against Economic Incentives Options       11
         i.  Double Burden                                  11
        ii.  Small Firm Argument                            12
       iii.  State Versus Federal Requirements              12
        iv.  Transfer Payments Create Inflationary
             Pressures                                      13
         v.  Political Problems                             13
        vi.  Legal Problems                                 15

3.   RAND'S ESTIMATING PROCEDURES                            17
    a.   Data Uncertainties                                  17
    b.   Discounting Procedures                              19
    c.   Administrative Costs of Regulation                  21
    d.   Impact of Uncertainty on Choice of Optimal
        Incentive Design                                    23

4.   OPTION DESIGN IMPLICATIONS                              25
    a.   Designs Should Reflect Different Potential
        Environmental Impacts of Compounds                  25
    b.   Design Control Point - Production, Use or
        Emissions                                           26
                               1-2

-------
                                 Economic Incentives Options
                                                       Paqe
c.  Transfer Payments                                   28
     i.  Uncompensated Transfer Payments                28
    ii.  Reduce Transfer Payments                       29
   iii.  Compensated Transfer Payments                  30
d.  Market Structure Effects of Regulatory Design       33
e.  Risk Trade-offs                                     34
f.  Diminishing Returns                                 35

OPTION IMPLEMENTATION AND ADMINISTRATION ISSUES         36
a.  Uncertainty Concerns                                36
b.  Mechanics of Implementation                         37
c.  Legal Issues                                        38
     i.  Taxes                                          38
    ii.  Marketable Permits                             38
                           1-3

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
 1.  INTRODUCTION

         Our ability  to  take  a  stance  on  economic   incentives
regulatory  options   is   limited  due  to  the  newness  of  these
concepts  and  the  unavailability  to  date of adequately detailed
potential structures on  which  to  base  our analysis.

         We agree there  are numerous problems and  inefficiencies
associated  with  traditional  command and control  regulations as
they have been  imposed historically.   And many of the theoretical
arguments  advanced  in  support  of   the  economic  incentives
aproaches are appealing, at least at first glance.   However,  once
one progresses beyond a  theoretical or conceptual  examination of
the incentives  options,  it becomes obvious  that  they  too  have
practical  limitations.    Careful  consideration  of  design,
implementation  and  administration issues  reveals that  these
concepts, while  seemingly efficient  and  simple at  face value,
have associated with them complex policy problems and questions.

         From our examination  to  date,  we are concerned there are
numerous and interrelated legal,  hidden cost and efficiency  pro-
blems  associated  with the potential implementation and adminis-
tration of these concepts.   There also  is a natural  reluctance to
commit one's business to  the experimental evaluation of untested
theoretical concepts.   Regulation often has  produced results and
inefficiencies  not  readily  foreseeable from pre-application
examination.   It  follows  that  any  new regulatory intervention
ought  to be carefully thought  out before it is implemented.    As
an  example,  even if  incentives  policies  result  in  less of  a
straight-jacket than direct controls (as theorized), nevertheless
they can be applied  in a way that would leave society worse off.

         In the  chemical  industry, we  require that theory be put
to  test;  first on the lab bench, then in a  pilot  plant  or  test
market,  prior  to committing  to  full  scale product  or  process

                               1-4

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options
introduction.   We  question the wisdom  of  jumping from  economic
theory  to  real  world  fluorocarbon  production and  use without
first obtaining some practical experience with these concepts  in
an  area  with  much  less potential  impact.    When  the  economic,
energy conservation  and safety  importance  of CFC  products are
considered, the wisdom of such an  action is  further questioned.
The concepts should  be tried out on  a limited  basis  and the
experience assessed before committing  to the  full scale-up  which
fluorocarbons would represent.

         We  also have a fundamental concern  over the  potential
broad-based  implications  of   this  form  of  regulation to the
balance between  business and  the regulatory  arm  of government.
It may be  argued that  these concepts minimize  regulatory control
of industry and are economically  efficient through their  reliance
on  the  operation  of  the  marketplace.   But  the use  of   these
concepts represents a potential for  ever-increasing control  in  an
area  heretofore  the  province  of  business  and  the   consumer.
Pollution  control  is  a well defined  area  in  which  business,
government and environmentalists  seem  to be  progressing  towards a
workable balance.  Policies — no  matter how theoretically sound,
or well  intentioned  — which  potentially expand this arena  into
economic control of the marketplace,  should  be examined  carefully
and approached with caution.

         The analyses we have  seen to  date provide more  questions
than workable  solutions.   We  feel that neither EPA nor  Rand  have
addressed adequately the areas of  policy design,  implementation
and administration,  or their implications  (although  the Rand
researchers  do  identify  many  of  the  potential problem areas and
suggest substantial further work).

         Part  of  the  problem  we  experience  is  the   lack   of
adequate  option  detail  for   analysis.    Without  detail   which
addresses  identified  questions  and  concerns,  it  is  extremely

                               1-5

-------
                                   Economic Incentives Options
difficult  for  us  to  perform the  required  analysis  from  our
perspective.      Until specific  detailed proposals are  developed
which would allow the evaluation  of the legality,  difficulty and
costs of complying with incentives options compared  to tradi-
tional command and  control options, we must hold  our  opinion or
                         ££j. __ The potential  problems must be
addressed publically by EPA, though the creation  of detailed
hypothetical  option designs, with allowance  for comment by
industry and  other interested parties, prior to implementing any
of these options.
                              1-6

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives  Options
 2.  BACKGROUND

         The following presents our understanding  of  the  problems
with  mandatory  controls,  the  "why"  and  the  "how"  of  economic
incentives controls,  followed  by some  of  the arguments  against
incentive options.   Our comments  in  the  following sections  are
based upon this understanding.

     a.  Mandatory Controls

         Mandatory controls, or command and control options,  are
the basic technique used over the last decade  to regulate  air  and
water pollution.   They  are targeted at particular activities  in
individual industries.                    v

         It is argued that these options are cost  inefficient  in
attaining environmental goals such as  CFC  emissions reduction  due
to  inherent  inflexibility.    Some   activities  regulated   by
mandatory  controls  may  require  large  expenditures  to  reduce
emissions by  modest  amounts,  whereas  other activities,  if  given
the  same expenditure,  would  show  large  reductions.    Further,
under such controls,  the cost per pound of emissions  reduced  may
rise  rapidly  for  a  given  activity as the  control  standard  is
approached, whereas a comparable  expenditure  in another  activity
could produce greater reductions.

         Yet,  under  command and  control  options, industries  or
individual firms within  the  targeted  industries could  not trans-
fer  expenditures  between  each other  (either inter-  or  intra-
company or industry), in order to attain the  greater  efficiencies
in emission reduction versus cost available elsewhere.

         An  additional  concern  with  mandatory controls  is  the
problem of  enforcement.    Regulations  targeted to  specific
emissions activities within specific industries must  be enforced

                               1-7

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives  Options
at the point of  control.   In the  case  of CFCs, this could  mean
enforcing standards in thousands of use  locations.

         It also  is  argued that once  a firm  has  met a  control
standard there is no  incentive  for  the  firm  to reduce use beyond
the standard,  nor  for competitive  reasons,  to spend monies  for
innovation which would lead to lower use.

     b.  Economic Incentives Options -  The "Why" and the  "How"

         In recognition of the limitations of command and control
options,  economists  have  long  argued   for  the  use  of  economic
incentives policies.   These policies are theorized  to function by
effectively raising the prices users must pay for their  polluting
activity,  thus  making the  control  of   the activity economically
attractive.

         In the  case  of  CFCs,  were the cost of  using them  to be
higher due  to  a regulatory  policy which increased  their price,
users would seek ways to reduce their purchase and/or to  use them
more  efficiently.     Use  reduction could  be  achieved  through
product  or  process substitution or increased  conservation,  and
use efficiency could be increased through recapture and  reuse.

         Under  these  options,  the  degree  of  use or  emission
reduction  desired  could  be controlled  simply  through adjustment
of the economic penalty imposed on the  chemical's use.  At higher
cost  penalties,  firms would  find  it attractive to  make greater
expenditures  to  further  limit   the  use  of  the  chemical.
Theoretically, the optimal point of economic disincentive on the
use activity  would be the premium at  which  an increase  in  the
cost  of  reducing the use  would  be equal  to the decrease in  the
environmental damage  that  would result  from the chemical's use.
                               1-8

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives  Options


         Once  the  desired policy  outcome is  decided  upon,  the
policymaker could  step  back  and limit  further involvement to a
monitoring  of  the  degree of  goal  attainment,  followed  by an
adjustment  (up or down)  of the use premium as  needed to  meet  the
preset goal.  This would minimize the need for direct  monitoring
and enforcement  of  controls  on the behavior of  individual  firms
and industries.

         More importantly, it is argued that such a scheme  would
allow the individual firms and  industries  to decide  upon  the most
economically sensible course of  action  for their circumstances.
Some, lacking the technology  or resources  to make much  headway in
the use  reduction, would  pay the  penalty.   Others  would find it
attractive to  substantially  reduce  their  use  to   avoid  the
penalty, often going  beyond  any standard  set  under command  and
control.

         In short, it is  argued that under  such  a   system,  firms
will operate  in  their own best economic  interests  with the  net
result that the  overall  use  or emissions goal will be met more
efficiently —  i.e.,  at  lower cost —  than   would be the case
under a system in which specific steps or controls  were  required
without  consideration  of  the  individual   capabilities  and
motivations of those affected.
 This is because command and  control  steps  generally are set at
 some average  point  of technological  and economic achievability
 so  as  not  to  be so  stringent that  they prove  unworkable or
 result in massive business failures.
                               1-9

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
         The  two  incentive  policies  most  often  discussed  are
taxes and  quotas.   A  tax  would be  imposed  on the use  of  CFCs,
resulting in  the user  paying  the CFC producer the  normal  supply
price plus  a  tax penalty  for  each  pound of CFC purchased,  thus
creating an incremental incentive (determined by the  size  of  the
tax)  to reduce the  use of the chemical.  The control agency would
raise  or lower  the  tax   in  response  to  the  quantity  of  CFC
purchased, relative to its policy goal.

         A quota system would  start  from the supply  side  of  the
equation.   If a quota on CFC  production or sale  were  imposed,
some sort of premium price mechanism would evolve  to allocate  the
reduced  amount  of  CFCs  among  the competing  uses.    Whether  the
producers themselves  effected  this  through  price   increases,  or
the  users  through  buying  and  selling permits  for  the  right  to
purchase the limited quantity of CFCs, makes little  difference in
theory.   The net  effect  would  be  that  the  effective  price  of
using CFCs would increase,  thus creating an  incentive  to  reduce
their use.  Many theorists favor the later approach, terming it a
"marketable  quota system."    The  users  would   market   among
themselves the permits for CFC  purchase.  The permit  price would
reflect the supply  availability and  serve to allocate the limited
CFC  among  the uses based  on  value-in-use or essentiality.   The
control  agency  would  simply  raise   or lower  the   production  or
sales quota of CFCs to meet its policy goal.

         Theoretically, the  same reduction in use,  at  the  same
cost, could  be  achieved using  either  permit quotas  or  taxes  —
i.e., for a given use reduction goal, either option  should  result
in  the  effective  increase  in  CFC   price being the  same,  thus
reducing CFC  use by like  amounts.   However,  it  is  important  to
note that the theoretical equivalence between taxes  and quotas is
dependent on  markets  being purely competitive and  on  quotas  not
being used to reduce competition.  [See section 4-d].
                               1-10

-------
                                     Economic Incentives  Options
     c.  Arguments Against Economic Incentives Options

         Many of  the  concerns raised about  the use  of  economic
incentives regulatory options result from the absence of  detailed
descriptions of how  these options would work  and  an understand-
able reluctance to have untested,  theoretical concepts applied  to
important  industries.    Prior to  satisfactory resolution through
option design and trial testing,  these concerns remain arguments
against the use of economic incentives approaches.

         i.  Double Burden

         Any system which required the paying  of a  charge  (taxes
or permit bids) would  remove  monies  that would otherwise be  used
on emission control.

         It  takes time   for  a firm to  analyze  its abatement
possibilities,  design  or  decide  on  new  equipment,  and  place  in
operation new technology.   Given  the need for this  lead time, any
charge applied  the first few years  would   be  a  double  burden:
money  would  have  to   be  spent for  the incentive  charge,  even
though there may  be no  reasonable action a  firm  could  take  to
reduce its emissions in this  period;  and monies would  have to  be
spent  in this period for  steps to  reduce emissions  over  the  long
run.

         As  a  solution,  the gradual  phase-in  of  incentives
options,   to  allow  industry  time  to effect  emission reduction
steps  before having  to pay  a penalty,  has  been  suggested.    We
believe all  regulations   should  be phased-in  over  a  reasonable
time  frame  in  order   to  minimize the  economic impact  of  com-
pliance.
                               1-11

-------
                                     Economic Incentives  Options
         ii.   Small Firm Argument

         Those  firms  too  small  to  afford  emission  reduction
equipment would  still  have  to  pay any  charge,  but  without  any
potential  for  eventually  offsetting  the  charge  cost  through
emission reduction.  The net  result is that  these  firms pay  more
for doing what  they  have  always done  —  but this  increased  cost
would not be  offset  by any reduction in emissions,  immediate  or
longer-term.    Consequently,   small  firms'   costs  would  increase
relative to other  firms.  This  would have  the  effect of shifting
demand  away  from  small  firms  towards other  firms  and,  in  the
extreme case,  put the smaller firms out of  business.

         One suggested solution  is  to 'exempt small  firms from a
charge system.  But exemptions would significantly complicate the
very design and enforcement attributes which make  the incentives
options attractive.   Once  the  regulatory  agency  begins granting
exemptions,  an  incentives policy  is likely to lose  its theoret-
ical property of  achieving  any desired  reduction of  CFCs at  the
lowest achievable compliance  cost.

         iii.   State Versus Federal Requirements

         The primary argument for economic  incentives options  is
that  if  an  economic disincentive  to  pollute   is  created,
individual firms,  acting  in  their  own  best economic interests,
collectively will  reduce polluting activity much  more efficiently
than were each firm to be required to  meet  set  control standards.
Were such a  system  in place  on a Federal level,  but individual
States  still  allowed  to  issue  traditional  command   and  control
regulations,  the   economic efficiency  of  the  incentives option
could  be  destroyed.   The Federal  system  would  be   designed  to
permit  firms  to reduce emissions  in the  manner and to the degree
economically  justified.   Yet State issued  command   and  control
steps could significantly undermine this  economic rationale.   For

                                1-12

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
instance,  a  firm  could  be  required  by  the  State  to  put  in
equipment making no economic  sense to  the  firm,  yet  then  have  to
pay  a  Federal  charge  penalty  for  not   having  made  the  best
economically justified decision.

         It  is  an overstatement  to  say that  Federal and  State
controls would present a strictly additive  burden because  a State
command and control reduction regulation would reduce the  Federal
charge payments.   However,  there  would  be  the  potential that the
State  regulations  would partially negate  the  very  efficiencies
touted  for  the  incentives  approach.   Clearly,  harmonization  of
Federal and State options must be carefully examined.

         iv.   Transfer Payments Create  Inflationary Pressures

         It is argued that  taxes  or permit  fees  to  government  by
industry  are simply  transfers  of wealth within  the economy.
Since  such  payments  do  not  use  up  real  resources and  are
eventually returned  to  the  economy,  it is  claimed  they   do  not
directly contribute to  inflation.  This argument  is  supported  by
the  formal  definition   of   inflation  which   relates  it   to  an
expansionist monetary policy.

         However,   these transfer payments  would represent a real
cost  of doing business to  industry  and would  be reflected  in
product prices.    Consumers   equate price  increases to  inflation
and social pressure  for increased wages would result.   If  this
pressure exists  under a monetary  policy  that does not restrict
the  money  supply,  the   price  increases caused  by  the  charges
indirectly lead to inflation.

         v.  Political Problems

              •    A  tax or  a permit fee system  could  be  subject
                  to  political  manipulation.   Due to  the  flexi-

                               1-13

-------
                   Economic Incentives Options
bility  built  into these  systems  (to  allow
adjustment up or  down  in  response to the degree
of  attainment  of  the   environmental  goal),
significant changes in fee structures  could be
much more  easily made than  altering  mandated
control steps.

Depending upon the ultimate fate of the monies
collected  under  a   charge  system,   revenue
addition is a concern. How easy would it be to
decrease the charge  in  response  to a  lessened
environmental problem or  an  overattainment of
goal were  various  programs or  funds dependent
upon an anticipated revenue level?

Transfer payments  are potentially  a very sen-
sitive political  issue.   If the system employed
j.^6-!^!!^^—£°.mPensate f°r tne charges,  total
regulatory costs  are far  greater for an  econo-
mic incentives policy than  for mandatory con-
trols.    This  destroys the theoretical benefit
of economic incentives options — lower cost.

If the system is  designed to  compensate for the
charges   in   some  manner,  the   politically
sensitive issue of distribution of wealth among
the CFC  users,  industry  or  public,  must  be
addressed.    Who  pays, who gains  and  on what
basis?
             1-14

-------
                                    Economic Incentives Options
        vi.   Legal Problems

         There  are  two  types  of  legal  concerns  that  must be
addressed.    These  are  discussed in detail  in  5-c  below and in
Section III - Legal Considerations, so  will  only  be touched on
here:

              •    It  arguable  whether  the EPA has the  authority
                  under  current  law  to  implement  a  marketable
                  permit system,  depending upon  how  it  were
                  designed.      Additionally,   administrative
                  agencies  have  no constitutional  authority to
                  levy taxes.

              •    Proponents  of economic  incentives  tend to
                  minimize  the legal  implications  of first,  the
                  proposed  option  designs  and  implementation
                  schemes,   and  second,  of  the   anticipated
     /
                  activities  and  responses of  firms  under  a
                  charge  system.   However,  it  may  not  be  legal
                  for  firms to comply with some of  the  proposed
                  options.

         To  study  the   implications  of  economic  incentives
options, EPA contracted  with the Rand Corporation to  analyze  the
efficiency  and   impact  of  these  options  opposite   traditional
command and control regulations if  both forms were to be applied
to  the goal of  reducing  CFC  emissions.   The  balance  of  this
Appendix  centers on  our   asssessment  of  the  thoroughness  and
validity of  Rand's and  EPA's  (from  the ANPR)  assumptions,
analyses  and  conclusions   for  the  potential  use  of  economic
incentives regulatory  options  in the control of  CFC  emissions.

         We have  roughly grouped our comments  into  three  areas.
Section  3  considers how  some  of the  procedures used by Rand to

                               1-15

-------
                                    Economic Incentives Options
estimate  the  costs  of  alternative  regulatory  policies  may
influence  the report's conclusions.   Section 4 focuses on Rand's
and EPA's  treatment of the economic  incentive  policy designs  and
their implications.  Section 5 deals with the implementation  and
administrative issues  associated  with  the  use  of  incentive
options.   Overlap  in certain  areas is unavoidable.

         A preview  of our  comments  is  offered  by  three  basic
propositions:

     1.      Rand's  analysis of economic  incentives  regulatory
options  is incomplete.   Administrative  costs of  the policies  are
not quantified and the analysis of control options is incomplete.

     2.    The Rand  Report  pays insufficient  attention  to  legal
considerations,  such as the danger  that a permit system could be
used to  attain monopoly  power in the market  for CFC.

     3.   As a consequence  of  EPA's definition  of the scope of  the
study,  Rand   limited  its  analysis  to  estimating  the cost  of
alternative modes  of  regulating CFC.   By  failing  to address  the
broader  question of the  net benefits  that could be attained under
each policy option, the  report  fails  to consider factors that  can
have  an  important  bearing  on which  policy  alternative  is
preferable from society's  viewpoint.
                               1-16

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options
 3.  RAND'S ESTIMATING PROCEDURES

     a.  Data Uncertainties

         There remains considerable uncertainty  about  the cost of
CFC regulation.   As a  result,  the cost advantage of  incentives
policies over  direct  controls could be  greater or smaller than
estimated by Rand.  As significant error  in  predicting  compliance
costs  could  lead  to   (a)  adoption  of  an  inferior  means  of
regulating  CFC  and  (b)  a  policy target that  is unwarrantedly
stringent or lax.

         A policy that  restricts  the use  of CFCs  must  result in
either substitution by consumers of final  products  that make less
or no  use  of  CFCs,  or substitution by  firms of other  inputs for
some of  the CFCs  presently  being  used to  produce final  products.
In  the  absence   of  perfect  substitutes  for  CFCs,   these
substitutions will impose costs  on consumers and firms.

         Since perfect  substitutes for  CFCs do not  exist,  any
regulatory policy that  leads  to a less CFC-intensive  production
technology will result in some increase  in the real resource cost
of production.  The size of the  cost  increase will  depend loosely
on the ease of replacing CFCs with other  inputs (a technological
issue)  and  the volume of output affected  by  the substitutions (a
matter of  the  size  of  the  market  traditionally  involving  use of
CFCs) .     To  estimate  the  costs  imposed  on  firms by  CFC
regulation,  information  is needed  on  the  size of  markets  for
goods  involving CFCs  and the production  cost of  these goods by
alternative technologies using less CFCs.

         These    information   requirements   impose   serious
difficulties.   Historic data is   limited and  may not be  very
accurate.  Projecting future uses  of  CFCs  involves  further
                               1-17

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options


uncertainties.   Continuing evolution of  the  uses  for  CFCs  and  the
technologies involved,  adds further  complication.

         Rand has dealt with these uncertainties  by attempting  to
develop a  working knowledge of  the role played  by  CFCs  in  the
production of  final  products and,  based  largely on  engineering
estimates, the scope and  cost of  possible substitutions for CFCs
in those  production  processes.    These  estimates, combined with
the  assumption  that firms will  always  seek  to  minimize their
production costs, provide  the basis for Rand's estimation of  the
compliance costs of each regulatory  strategy.

         However, considerable  uncertainty  remains about the true
compliance  costs  of  CFC  regulation.   A  key  source of  this
uncertainty is that Rand  seems to have only limited  knowledge  of
the nature of end products dependent upon CFCs.   A further source
of  uncertainty   is  Rand's  assumptions  concerning substitutions
that can be made for CFCs.

         The significance of these data  uncertainties is that  the
true compliance cost could be  significantly higher or lower than
estimated by Rand.    Hence, the cost  advantage projected for
incentives policies could be either  under-  or  over-estimated.   If
incomplete information  led to  overlooking  a direct  control that
would  substantially  reduce CFC  at  a modest  cost and could   be
easily enforced, the compliance costs of  direct controls would  be
overestimated  relative  to  an  incentive system.   On the other
hand,  if  the  cost of reducing CFC  use  has  a wider  range across
user industries  than estimated by Rand, the cost  advantage of  an
incentives policy would tend to be underestimated.

         A significant  error  in estimating compliance costs can
have   important  effects  on   policy  formulation.    If  the
implementation costs of taxation, marketable permits  and direct
controls  were  the same,  choice  of  the  best  policy  alternative

                               1-18

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options
would depend  simply  on  the  ordering  of  policies  by compliance
cost.    Errors  that  did not  affect the  ordering  would  be
inconsequential.    But   if,  for  example,  direct   controls  are
expected to be less costly to implement than  a permit system, the
accuracy of compliance cost difference  becomes important.

         Once a form of  regulation  is  selected, compliance costs
become relevant to the determination of the  socially appropriate
reduction  in  CFC  emissions  (which should  be  the  objective  of
regulation).   Consequently,  although  Rand  focuses  only  on the
relative cost-effectiveness of  the  policy alternatives,  the
accuracy of  their  cost  estimates  is  also relevant to selecting
this  appropriate  degree  of control.    The potential  optimal
curtailment of CFCs is inversely related to  the  potential cost to
society  of  reducing  the  uses  of  CFCs,   so  the larger  the
compliance cost, the  smaller the  reduction   in  CFC  use  that the
regulatory policy  would  attempt to accomplish.   This means that
an underestimate of compliance costs could lead  to  more stringent
regulation than would be socially  desirable,  and vice versa.

     b.   Discounting Procedures

         The  report  measures the  effectiveness of a regulatory
policy by  its predicted curtailment of  CFC  production  over the
period 1980 to 1990.   Ignoring the effect  of  a policy on year-by-
year  production   (and  thereby  emissions)  is  justified  in  the
report by two arguments.  First, the effect  on the  ozone layer is
relatively  insensitive  to different  time profiles  of  the same
volume of cumulative emissions.   Second, the  time-lag between CFC
production and the full effect of  emissions  on the  ozone layer is
long.    Thus  a  policy  that  delays  emissions  within  a   decade
results  in a relatively small delay before the full effect  on the
ozone layer occurs.  Since the report ignores the  time profile of
                               1-19

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
CFC  reduction,  all  policies  that  produce  the  same  cumulative
reduction over  the  decade beginning  in  1980 are  represented  as
being of equal value to society.

         This treatment of benefits is inconsistent with  the  way
costs  are  calculated  in the   report.    The  compliance  costs
estimated for each  year are  discounted back  to  a  base year  and
represent  the present  value  of all  costs  incurred  in  accom-
plishing  the  cumulative  reduction  in  CFC  production  over  the
decade.  This discounting procedure  recognizes that a  real dollar
of goods is worth more today  than tomorrow.  Inconsistency arises
in  the  report's failure  to  discount  the  flow  of  benefits in  a
similar way.

         Although Rand  suggests  that  the  benefits from  reduced
CFC emissions are  relatively  insensitive  to  their  time  profile,
that will not necessarily be  so.   Consider an  extreme  example,
for  some stipulated  cumulative  CFC  reduction  over  the  period
1980-1990:   all the  reduction   occurs  in  the  first  year  under
policy A  while  all  the reduction occurs in  the  tenth  year  under
policy B.  The benefits  from policy B  will  lag  those  from policy
A by  9  years.   At  the  11 percent  rate of discount used  by Rand
the  present value  of  benefits  produced  by policy  B  will   be
        9
1/(1.11)  , or about 40 percent of the  value from policy A.

         The  report  states that  a  constant tax  rate  over  the
decade will  produce  a  time profile of CFC  use  paralleling that
from  direct controls.    If  the  difference  is  negligible,  the
failure to discount benefits  does not  interfere  with a comparison
of  the merits of the  policies.   But the  report  also  considers  a
tax  that  is  initially  set  at a  lower   level  and  increased
uniformly over  the  decade,  producing  equivalent  cumulative
reduction in CFC use.   Failure  to discount benefits introduces  an
                               1-20

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives  Options
error in comparing this policy to others.   The  policy  is  credited
with a  lower  present  value of compliance costs, but  the  present
value of benefits also would be reduced  by the  delay.

     c.   Administrative Costs of  Regulation

         Public sector expenditures for developing,  implementing
and enforcing regulation of CFCs  are not included  in Rand's  esti-
mates of  regulatory  costs.   Since these  expenditures constitute
real resource costs,  their omission tends to understate  the real
cost to  society of regulating CFCs.  Because both  the  information
required  to  formulate a particular  policy and the  cost of  en-
forcing  it will be different for  mandatory controls, taxation, or
a  permit  system,  administrative  expenses  must be  included to
correctly determine  cost-effectiveness,  as  well  as  to assess
correctly the total cost of regulation.

         Administrative expenses  are  difficult  to  estimate
because,  to  a  considerable extent,  they reflect discretionary
choices.  The amount of information a  regulatory authority elects
to acquire  in  the process  of  setting and enforcing   policy  will
affect  both  the cost  and  the  quality of  regulation.   If  there
were  simple  decision  rules to  determine  the economically
efficient amount  of  information  for  a  regulator  to   obtain,  the
administrative  costs  of regulation  could be  estimated  on   that
basis.   Since this is usually  not  the case, administrative  costs
are difficult to anticipate.

         But failure to take into account  administative costs can
lead to two types  of  regulatory  errors.   First, if the selection
of a  policy  to  regulate  emissions is  based exclusively on  the
private  sector compliance costs,  the chosen policy may not be the
one minimizing  the full cost of  regulation — private  and public
sector  costs.   Second,  regulation which appears attractive  when
only  private  sector  costs are   compared  to   benefits   may be

                               1-21

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
undesirable  when  the  administrative  costs  of  regulation  are
added.    This  can  mean   either  that  no  regulation  would  be
preferable or, when administrative costs rise  with the stringency
of regulation,  that  the  curb on emissions  is  tighter  than, would
be in the public interest.

         It is argued that a tax or  a quota should be less costly
to administer  than a  system of direct  controls.    This  implies
that  Rand's  omission  of  administrative expenses  results  in  an
underestimate  of  the  cost advantage  of  incentives  policies.
However,  there  are  myriad unanswered  questions  and  concerns
relating to implementation and  administrative  issues for economic
incentives options [See section  6] .   Design of these  options  to
accomodate these concerns  undoubtedly will  result  in more complex
regulations than the  theoretical ideal,  leading to an increase  in
development,   implementation and  enforcement costs.   Costs  could
even  rise to  the level of  mandatory  controls,  depending  upon the
complexity of  the  modifications  required.   Another consideration
is that in the  case  of CFCs, substantial information on which  to
base mandatory controls already is available.

         Enforcement  costs can  be avoided entirely at the risk  of
substantial noncompliance  with  the regulations.  Alternatively, a
regulatory agency can police the affected markets  sufficiently  to
insure  that   compliance   is  complete,  resulting   in  substantial
enforcement costs.   Actual enforcement  costs  will  depend  on the
ease  of enforcing the  selected mode  of  regulation  and on  the
degree of enforcement chosen.

         The  Rand  Report  implicitly  assumes that  enforcement  of
each  of  the  policy alternatives  will be complete,  and  that
enforcement costs  of incentives policies will  be  minor.   It  is
our view that Rand is somewhat  glib  in characterizing enforcement
costs of incentives policies as minor.  Either a permit system  or
taxation  could  create a  substantial   incentive   to  evade  the
                               1-22

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options
regulation of  CFC  use, necessitating  enforcement  comparable to
that needed with mandatory controls.   Additionally, as  incentives
options become more complex  (in  order  to  address all the design
and  implementation  concerns),  more enforcement  will  be needed.
An  example would  be  the  case  of  an  incentives  option  with
exemptions.
Therefore, since the cost  of  enforcement  may be substantial for
either  incentive  option,  it  certainly  merits  more  careful
attention than Rand seems  to have given it.

     d.  Impact  of  Uncertainty  on Choice of Optimal  Incentive
         Design

         Rand points out,  that  an  important distinction between
quota  and  tax options  results from the fact that  there is some
uncertainty about the estimated demand schedules used to predict
the permit price or  the  requisite  tax to  achieve a given policy
goal.    Under  permits,  the  level of CFC  use  is  known  with
certainty, but  the  permit price  that actually  develops  might
differ  from  the prediction;  under taxes,  the   increase  in CFC
price  is known with certainty, but the reduction in CFC use that
occurs  might  differ  from  the  prediction.    Thus  the earlier
discussed  theoretical equivalence  (same reduction  in use at the
same cost) of the  incentives  policies is  dependent upon perfect
information of CFC  costs  and  demand.   Since perfect information
is  not  available,  the  extent to  which   these  are  relative
uncertainties  in  the  information  on  the  demand  for,  and costs
(production and  social)   of,  CFCs  should  dictate,  at  least in
part,  a  choice  between  incentives   options.    Consequently,  a
choice between taxation and a  permit  system  should  depend in part
on whether the  regulatory authority  has a clearer notion of the
appropriate tax on CFCs or of  the appropriate quantity.
                               1-23

-------
                                     Economic Incentives  Options
         Rand's assessment of alternative methods  for  regulating
CFCs  is  limited to  a  consideration of  the  cost of obtaining  a
designated reduction in CFCs  under  each policy.   This,  however,
is not a  sufficient  criterion to determine the  best  choice  among
policy alternatives.    If  the  degree   to  which it  is  socially
optimal to  reduce  CFC  emissions is  uncertain,  the best mode  of
regulation will  not  necessarily be  the one  that  is most  cost-
effective.  As an example,  if there  is  more  uncertainty  about the
correct tax level than the appropriate  reduction in  emissions  —
but a  permit  system  is felt  to  pose  a danger of  market  concen-
trations — then the  best solution  might be  direct  controls,  even
though theoretically  more costly.

         Last,  significant uncertainty about the demand for  CFC,
its production cost  or the damage  from CFC  emissions can lead  to
the public being worse  off under any of the  policy alternatives
than if CFCs had not  been regulated.
                               1-24

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options


 4.  OPTION DESIGN IMPLICATIONS

     a.  Designs Should Reflect Different Potential Environmental
         Impacts of Compounds

         Different fluorocarbons have greatly different potential
stratospheric  environmental  impacts.   Some  (CFCs)  are of  high
concern; others  (hydrogenated  CFCs)  of moderate  to  low concern;
and others  (FCs  containing no  chlorine)  of  no concern.   Economic
differences through a quota or fees system which penalizes least
the use of the compounds of lowest environmental concern.     This
would  focus  emission  reduction   efforts  on  the  compounds  of
greatest risk, and encourage replacement of high risk CFCs, e.g.,
CFC-11  and  CFC-12,  with  low  risk  substitutes,  e.g., CFC-22  or
CFC-142b.

         EPA's system of  "permit  pounds"  is  a step  in  the right
direction.   However, as discussed  in  Appendix  G.    EPA has  made
some errors in its system.

         The  concept of  relative  environmental  risk  could  be
applied  equally  well  to  taxes   (through  setting  different  tax
rates  by  compound)  or  to  marketable  permits (through  setting  a
quota of the total permissible stratospheric  chlorine burden from
CFCs and  relating  a permit  unit  to "ozone  depletion potential"
rather  than  to  pounds  of CFC emissions).   Under  this  scheme,
different compounds would have different permit  values.

         As  an  example,   using   our   figures  from  Appendix  G,
industry would have  the choice of producing  34  pounds  of CFC-22
or one  pound of  CFC-11, since  both would  account for equal units
of potential for ozone  depletion.   The net  result would  be  both
more efficient regulation (as  it would control directly the
                               1-25

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options


environmental risk factor)  and  cost-effective regulation   (as  it
would allow  industry substantial  flexibility in production  and
use) .

     b.   Design Control Point -  Production,  Use or  Emissions

         There  are  a  series  of considerations  relating  to  the
impact  or  control point  of  incentives  options.   Although  EPA
discusses  a  number  of the  possibilities   in  the  ANPR,  neither
their identification nor analysis of the different  approaches is
thorough.  What is needed is an  ordering  of  all the possibilities
with  a  discussion  of  the  pros and  cons   of each.   After  the
initial questions of  "What  are  we  trying to  control?"  and  "How
much  control  is  needed?",  are   answered,  a  series  of complex,
interrelated  questions  must be addressed.    A  representative
sampling of these and how they might be ordered follows:

    •   Should control.be imposed on users  or  producers?

         a.  If  on  users,  should control be  on CFC  emissions or
             CFC use?

              i.  If  on emissions, what   are the  enforcement
                  problems?

             ii.  If on  use,  should  all  users be  taxed the  same
                  and  have  an  equal  opportunity  to  acquire
                  permits,  or  should  taxes  or  permits  vary  by
                  application?   Should  there be  exemptions  for
                  certain uses  (e.g., where no emission reduction
                  is possible or where no emissions occur)  or for
                  certain  users (e.g.,  small firms  which  would
                  otherwise be forced out of business)? What are
                  the problems associated with exemptions?
                               1-26

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options


         b.   If  on  producers,  will  there  be  legal  problems?
             What is the potential  for  restraint  of  trade?

    •   How should control be imposed?

         a.   Should  permits   initially  be  put  up  for   bid  or
             allocated?

              i.   If put up for bid,  who can  bid  and  on how many?

             ii.   If  allocated,  on  what   basis?   Who will  be
                  eligible?  What  about new entries?

         b.   How should reclaimed  material  be  treated?

    •   How would imports be  handled?

         a.   If taxes, what would  be  the repercussions?

         b.   If  permits,  would imports have  to  fit into United
             States permit quotas?   If  so,  how?

         EPA is  proposing to  use  economic incentives concepts.
It is EPA's obligation to think  them out and present proposals
which address these and related questions.      EPA's approach to
date has been to ask industry to answer the questions rather than
EPA doing the necessary work  to support its proposals.

         In the ANPR, EPA proposes  to regulate either the produc-
tion or the use of  CFCs,  not  the emissions.   However,  regulation
of CFC  use  or  production  will  not  produce  outcomes exactly equi-
valent  to  the direct  regulation   of  emissions.    And it is the
emission of  CFCs  which leads to the potential  environmental
damage,  not the production or use.

-------
                                     Economic Incentives  Options
         When  two  products,  one  of  which  poses  environmental
hazards, are  unavoidably  produced in fixed  proportions,  regula-
tion of  the  output  of either  product  can  be  used  to  curtail
environmental damage.   The  choice between the  hazardous  product
itself or the  product  rigidly  linked  to it may  not be  important
unless the cost of enforcement differs.

         If,  however,  the  proportions  in which  the two  products
are produced  can  be  varied, a policy that regulates  the  harmful
product indirectly, by acting on the closely  related product,  can
lead  to  subtle inefficiencies  because  the  relationship  between
the two products is elastic.  EPA fails to note this distinction.
The area requires further examination.

         Further,   a  key  advantage to  regulating CFC  emissions
directly — that could be lost with indirect  regulation (taxes on
use or  use  permits)  —  is  that  under  direct  regulation of  CFC
emissions,  only emissions  are  penalized.    CFC-using  activities
which do not  result in emissions, properly, are not penalized.

     c.  Transfer Payments

         A  critical  concern with economic incentives  options is
over  the  size, control  and fate  of the monies  collected.   For
simplicity, this problem can be approached three ways:   i)  ignore
compensations;  ii)  reduce  the  size   of  the   transfer  payment
(without undermining the economic  incentives  to  reduce CFCs) ;  or,
iii) compensate those hurt  by the payments.

         i.   Uncompensated  Transfer Payments

         Rand estimates  that  transfer  payments  generated by
economic incentives options for even their moderate "benchmark"
                               1-28

-------
                                    Economic Incentives  Options
reduction in emissions  will  be  approximately  $1.5-1.7  billion,  a
number many times in excess  of  the option's  compliance costs.   A

quote from the  report succinctly sums up this problem.


         "Under  an  uncompensated  economic  incentives policy,
         cumulative  transfer  payments  would  be very  large,
         ranging  upward from $1.5  billion for the least costly
         benchmark-equivalent  policy.    For   the  firms that  pay
         them,    uncompensated   transfers   dwarf   the   costs
         of reducing  emissions.    On  average, a  firm's expenses
         for transfers  under   an  uncompensated  benchmark-
         equivalent  policy  are  about fifteen times the costs  of
         actually . reducing  emissions.    For  all  but  a   few
         CFC-using  firms,  the  total expenses  under uncompensated
         economic incentives  are  greater than  the   compliance
         costs  under mandatory controls."  [Rand,  1980, p. 18].

         Other  problems with uncompensated transfer dollars  are

political.   There  is  concern   over  the  possibility of   rate

manipulation and  revenue addition  [See section 2],


        ii.  Reduce  Transfer Payments


         Due to  the  potential  problems  with  transfer  payments,
Rand suggests a  number of possibilities  to  reduce their  impact.

An obvious  solution would seem  to  be  to exempt  users  where  CFC

demand is  relatively inelastic  (because of use  essentiality  and

the  unavailability of  emission  reduction  options),  e.g.,
polyurethane insulating foam.   But  once  exemptions are allowed,

enforcement  difficulties  and  costs  increase  markedly.      For
enforcement and  other reasons,  Rand  discards  the  exemption

approach.
                               1-29

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
         Instead,  Rand  suggests  direct  allocation  of CFC  use.
This approach  involves  giving  an initial allocation  of  permits,
per  period,  to  CFC  users  according  to a  regulatory  formula,
rather  than  requiring  that  users  initially  purchase  permits.
Even under this approach,  however, the real  cost of regulation is
likely to be unnecessarily high because the  cost of administering
direct allocation of permits is  likely to be  considerably larger
than  the  cost  of  distributing  permits by  auction.    Further
concerns are questions  of allocation  - what  "regulatory  formula"
and what  basis would  be used  for distribution?   What allowances
should be made for new uses or new users?

        iii.   Compensated Transfer Payments

         Neither  the  benefits  nor  the  beneficiaries  of  compen-
sation are made  entirely clear by Rand or by  EPA.   A key concern
not addressed  is  that  those who would benefit  from compensation
are not  necessarily  those  on whom  the primary  regulatory burden
would fall.

         Throughout  the study,  it  is  assumed  that  demand  for
final products using CFCs  is  perfectly price inelastic.    If  so,
user  industries  will  be  able  to pass  through  to  consumers  any
increase in cost  due to regulation,  whether  its  source is higher
resource  costs or transfer  payments on taxes  or  permits.   The
burden of  adjustment,  measured  by  potential  reductions  of  real
income, would  fall primarily on consumers of final products using
CFCs,  and workers and  stockholders  in firms  producing  CFCs.
However,  Rand  focuses  on compensation to  user  industries, as  a
result of  relaxing the  assumption that final  product demands  are
perfectly  inelastic.   This  leads one to  consider the possibility
that it may not be possible to pass all cost increases through to
consumers.
                               1-30

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options
         Of the  policies proposed  to nullify  transfer payment
impact, the one  least  likely  to  increase regulatory compliance
costs would seem to  be  a free  allocation of  permits.  Even this
approach,  however,  is  likely  to  result  in higher  real cost of
regulation because  of  the cost of  sorting  our competing claims
and administering a direct allocation.

         Each  of  the  other  combinations  of  incentives  and
compensation considered  by Rand appears  to be capable of leading
to  serious cost   inefficiencies.    Consider,  for  example,  the
rebate  scheme  proposed in the  report,  which  would  involve
simultaneously subsidizing  final  goods  that make  use  of  CFCs
while  taxing  CFC  use.   If  the demand for  final  products using
CFCs is at all responsive to price, a policy that simultaneously
taxes the  input and subsidizes  the output will  result  in a higher
real resource  cost of  curbing  CFC  emissions than  a policy that
simply taxes the  input.

         In addition,  if a  firm  knows compensation of payments
will be complete  (i.e., all the  emissions  taxes  or permit fees
paid will  be  returned  to the  firm),  there will  be  no  incentive
for firms to  reduce  their demand  for  CFCs.   This can be seen by
noting  that,  under  complete compensation,  choice  of  less
CFC-intensive   technology  makes a  firm worse off  than making no
adaption to the  charge.   A  firm that  does not attempt to reduce
its exposure to  the  charge  by  reducing the  use of CFC would not
be  any  worse  off  after  regulation  than  prior  to  it,  since the
firm would  receive compensation  exactly  equal  to  its  payments.
If  on  the  other  hand,  it were  to  reduce  its charge  liability by
substituting other inputs for  CFCs, it would be worse off.  This
is  because, although  its reduced  payments are  compensated,  the
rise in its cost  of production  resulting  from reduced  use of CFCs
would  not  be.   If compensation  for  CFC payments  is  complete,
therefore, no  cost-minimizing firm will reduce  its use of CFCs.
                               1-31

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
         Although complete  compensation  is an  extreme example,
the preceding  analysis  can  be  generalized in  the form  of  two
propositions.    First,  the  effectiveness  of  a charge  to  reduce
emissions  will  be   limited  under  any  scheme  that   makes  the
transfer of governmental funds to a  firm  a positive function of
the firm's  CFC  charge  liability.   In  addition,  if  a  partial
compensation scheme  leads  to firms forming  differing expectations
about  the proportion of  their  payments that  will be returned by
the compensatory policy, the CFC  reduction that  does  occur will
not be accomplished  at  a minimum  compliance cost.

         Second,  unless  final  product  demand  is completely
inelastic,  any scheme linking compensation  to  the output level of
goods  using CFCs will- result in higher than necessary  compliance
costs.

         Lastly, if  one is going  to compensate firms which would
be  affected  adversely  by  an  incentives  policy,  there   is  no
obvious reason why compensation should  not  be  made  for  compliance
costs  as well.

         To sum  up  concerns  about  transfer payment compensation
techniques,  another  quotation from the  Rand Report  is useful:

         "The  implementation  issues  associated with  the  design
         of compensated  economic  incentives policies  should  not
         be underestimated.   Both the basis and the formulas for
         compensation    raise   politically   sensitive   and
         economically  complex  issues.    They  are politically
         sensitive   because  of  ther    obvious   and   direct
         implications for the  distribution of wealth  among  the
         CFC user and producer  industries.  They are economically
         complex because it  is  no simple matter to  devise speci-
         fic  rules  that prevent  distortions  in  the  policy that
         might thwart the economic incentives it  is intended to
         create."  [Rand,  1980, p.239]
                               1-32

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
     d.  Market Structure Effects of Regulatory Design

         If markets are purely competitive, it should be possible
to establish a quota  in  the  form  of  marketable  permits  that  will
produce the same regulatory results as the imposition of a tax on
a pollutant.   However,  when  the  markets affected  by  regulation
are not purely competitive,  the  equivalence  between taxation and
permits breaks  down.   Under  this circumstance, a  permit  system
can have a variety of undesirable effects.  As an example,  when a
firm's purchase  of permits  is sufficiently  large to affect  the
price at which the permits are obtained,  large firms will find it
profitable to engage  in  more costly substitutions  for  CFCs  than
small  firms.     This  would  result  in  the   compliance  cost  of
attaining any CFC abatement target being  greater than it would be
when taxation is used.

         The second broad  problem of a permit system is  that it
may unavoidably  lead  to a greater  reduction  in the use  of  CFCs
than would be socially desirable.  This  possibility  arises  under
a permit  system  because the requirement  to  possess permits  to
produce  (or use)  CFCs could be exploited  by  firms to  attain or
enhance monopoly power in their product markets.

         As an example,  assume the quantity of  permits  issued by
the government is  equal  to the socially  optimal  use  of  CFCs.   If
socially optimal production is smaller than the output level  that
would  maximize  industry  profits,  each  firm  will  have   a  profit
incentive to  produce  up  to  the   limit of its  permits  holdings,
regardless of the  distribution of permits among producing  firms.
In  this  situation,  therefore,   although  the  distribution  of
permits probably  will  be of interest  to  each firm,  it   is of no
obvious importance from the perspective of efficient regulation.
                               1-33

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
         If on the other hand, the socially optimal production of
CFC were to  exceed the aggregate output  that  maximized  industry
profits, a potential  would  exist  for  a  firm  to  profit  from
hoarding some  of  the permits it  acquired,  rather  than producing
up to the limit of its permit holdings.  In effect, permits could
be used  as a  means  of profitably  restricting output,  with  the
result that CFC  use  would be reduced  more than  would be  in  the
public interest.

         There are  a  number  of  devices  that  might  be  used  to
prevent  a  permit  system  from  being   used  to  increase  industry
concentration, but it  is  not obvious  that any mechanism  can  be
completely  effective without  at the same  time adding  further  to
the  cost  of  regulation.    Therefore,  before  adopting  a  permit
system to  regulate CFCs,  the  ways in which the system  might lead
to socially harmful  industry concentration, and  the  steps  that
might be taken to mitigate such  developments,  should be carefully
examined.

     e.  Risk Trade-offs

         As with  mandatory  controls,  economic  incentives options
imposed  only on  CFCs  would result  in emission reduction activi-
ties (e.g., product or process substitution) that  bring with them
other risks - to the worker, the consumer or the  environment (See
Section V - Risks) .  If the  case  made  by Rand is  correct  that  a
"moderate" economic  incentives  level  will result  in more
elimination of CFC emissions than  mandatory  controls,  then  the
risk "created" by  incentives  options  likely will  be greater than
that from mandatory controls.   The  degree  of risk  resulting from
the  imposition of any regulatory option must  be compared  to  the
risk the option is being employed to reduce.
                               1-34

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options
     f.   Diminishing Returns

         From Rand's summary of the potential for,  and  costs  of,
emission reduction under economic incentives options,  it is clear
that successive  price  increments of  the  same amount yield  even
smaller  increments  in  emissions reduction.   Further  as  the  CFC
price rises, compliance  costs  rise  far more  rapidly  than reduc-
tions in  emissions.   The  same situation occurs  under  mandatory
controls  — the  first   pounds  of  a  pollutant  reduced  are  the
cheapest.

         What is worthy of comment is the steepness of the curve.
Clearly,  there  are practical economic  limits  for  incentives
options.  In addition,  it  should be  noted  that  the steep rise in
compliance costs excludes transfer payments.
                               1-35

-------
                                    Economic Incentives Options
 5.   OPTION  IMPLEMENTATION AND ADMINISTRATION ISSUES

     a.   Uncertainty Concerns

         The underlying uncertainty on  regulatory  costs  and
benefits [See section 3] will  lead  regulated  firms to recognize
the   possibility  that  the  initial   policy  may  be  subject  to
significant  changes to correct for regulatory  error.   This leads
to a second  uncertainty  issue.

         One of  the  arguing  points for  economic   incentives
options  is their flexibility,  i.e.,  they can be rapidly adjusted
in severity up or  down  to reflect a  changing  environmental  risk
or degree of  policy  goal attainment.   Unfortunately,  this  very
flexibility  gives cause  for  concern.

         If  a  tax  or quota  were adopted,  there  needs to  be  a
rationale  for   the  level  imposed  and  for  future possible
adjustments.   The  rationale  must be equally well  understood  by
the  regulators  and  regulated industries  alike.   Industry needs to
know the parameters and  logic  of  the system under  which  it  must
work  if  it  is  to  plan and respond  satisfactorily  to  the
environmental  objective.  A  control system should not be prone to
dramatic swings due to  vulnerability to  political pressure  or
changing policymakers.

         One of the attractions of command and control options is
that they generally are  established  only  after fairly extensive
information exchanges,  deliberations  and  challenge — with  the
consequence that what ultimately  is  promulgated  tends to remain
in  place sufficiently   long  that  operational  and  investment
decisions can be made  with a reasonable  expectation of payback.
                               1-36

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options


         "In  contrast,  firms  may  perceive  tax  rates  or  quota
         levels as highly variable,  subject to regulatory whim or
         political manipulation.   If so,  firms might be  reluctant
         to  undertake  long-term  investments  that  would  reduce
         emissions for fear  that  future  regulatory  action  would
         make   the   investment   obsolete    or    reduce    its
         cost-effectiveness.   Thus,  establishing  and maintaining
         long-range policy goals  can contribute to the success of
         an economic incentives  policy  strategy."   [Rand,  1980,
         p. 242].
The effect of uncertainty is  also discussed in Section VII.

     b.  Mechanics of Implementation

         Because there is little or  no practical  experience with
economic incentives  regulatory options  as  designed  by  Rand,  the
report  left  unanswered  numerous "how  to"  questions.   As  noted
elsewhere,   EPA has  not   answered  any of  the  questions  in  its
economic incentives proposals in  the ANPR.   Again, preparation of
a grid  would  help identify the concerns which  must  be  addressed
and aid  the  evaluation  of the pros  and  cons of  the  alternative
solutions.

         Some of the  questions which need to be addressed are:

         •   Who would  set the tax  or control the  permits?

         •   What would be the control  mechanism?   What  records
             and auditing would be  required?

         •   When would levels be set?  How would they  be phased
             in?  How far  in  advance and for  what duration  would
             levels be  set for?

         •   What notification procedure  would precede  auctions
             or changes in the levels of  permits or  taxes?
                               1-37

-------
                                     Economic Incentives Options


         •   If permits  were selected,  what  recourse  would be
             available  to   those  missing  the  allocation or
             auction,  or for  new entries?

     c.   Legal Issues  (Also See  Section III)

         i.   Taxes

         It  is clear  that   administrative  agencies  have no
constitutional authority to levy a  tax.  Any effort  by the EPA to
impose  a tax  could  be  met with  a  successful  constitutional
attack.    Thus,  if EPA decides a tax  is the  preferred method of
regulating CFCs,  it will be necessary to go to Congress  to secure
passage  of a tax bill.

         ii.  Marketable Permits

         The  Rand Report  and  EPA  in  the ANPR  set  forth two
alternatives  for  distributing CFC permits.   The first involves
EPA  setting  the  total  CFC   emissions  limit,  and  then granting
permits   based  on  users'  percentage of  the total emissions  prior
to  EPA  limitation.   The second  is  to  sell  the permits  at an
auction.  There are different legal  concerns with respect to the
two alternatives:
                  Allocation  - This  would  require  EPA to deter-
                  mine each  user's  relative market share and then
                  grant  permits accordingly.    Aside  from the
                  antitrust   implications of  using  market share,
                  and the natural reluctance  of firms to  release
                  such sensitive information,  it is  difficult to
                  see how EPA could  reconcile the share numbers,
                  without accusations  and  perhaps challenges of
                  unfairness.
                               1-38

-------
                                     Economic  Incentives Options
                  Auction - It is  possible  that  if EPA chose  to
                  impose an  auction system to  control CFC  pro-
                  duction,   the  Agency  would  be  vulnerable  to
                  challenge on the  grounds  that  the system  was  in
                  effect a "tax" on  the  production of CFCs.   As
                  noted earlier,  EPA does not have the authority
                  to impose a tax.

Regardless of  which implementation  system  were  selected  or the
associated  legal  questions,  serious problems  emerge  from the
legal  ramifications of  how  a  marketable  permit  system   would
operate in practice.

         The  Rand  Report  and  EPA  discuss  the  possibility  of
futures  markets   developing  for permits,  or  sales  of permits
through a  national  securities exhange or  through a  commodities
market, and  of Federal  regulation  of  such markets.    The  more
sophisticated the trading in permits becomes,  the  more  likely  it
is  that  Federal  securities  laws   will  become  involved.    The
precise   nature   of  this  involvement,   and  the  impact  the
interaction  between Federal  securities  and  environmental  laws
will have on the  system, is a complex issue and  requires further
examination.

         Lastly,   the  Rand  Report   states  that  collusion   among
firms  and  predatory behavior  in  the permit marketplace will not
be  unacceptable   because  neither   would  diminish  the  emission-
reducing  potential   of  a   permit  policy.    Nevertheless,   this
potential must   be examined  in  depth  because  of  antitrust
questions.   A  marketable permit  system such as proposed by  Rand
could  be  noncompetitive  in nature.    The  pro-competitive policies
of  the antitrust  laws  are  important national  objectives  that
cannot reasonably be ignored by EPA.  The  impact  to the proposed
permit system  could be contrary  to the policy objectives of the
antitrust laws.
                               1-39

-------
X.  APPENDIX J
                        CHLOROFLUOROCARBON
                     PRODUCTION AND EMISSIONS
                                J-l

-------
                                 CFC PRODUCTION AND EMMISSIONS
                        Table  of Contents


                                                        Page
1.   INTRODUCTION                                          3

2.   CURRENT U.S. CFC PRODUCTION                           4

3.   PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. CFC PRODUCTION               6

4.   WORLD CFC EMISSIONS AND GROWTH                        8

5.   U.S. SHARE OF WORLD CFC PRODUCTION                   11

6.   ESTIMATES SHOULD BE BASED ON CALCULATED              12
    OZONE DEPLETION POTENTIAL FACTORS-PERMIT
    POUNDS, NOT CFC POUNDS

7.   SUMMARY                                              16
                                J-2

-------
                                     CFC Production and Emissions
1.  INTRODUCTION

           Two of  the Agency's  stated  major  justifications for a
decision  to  regulate  now are that:  1)  world production  and use
of  CFCs  have  essentially offset  the   reduction  created  by the
U.S. aerosol use ban, and 2)  estimates of future growth in world
production and use make  the  potential  problem of ozone depletion
even  more severe  than   the  cited  model calculations,  because
these  calculations  are  based  on  an   assumption  of  constant
emissions  at  1977  rates.    Thus,   careful   examination  of  the
Agency's  production  and use estimates,  both  current and  for
future years,  is of  great importance  to  the underlying question
of risk and the need for  immediate regulation.

           In  the  ensuing  analysis  and  discussion we  find the
Agency's estimates in the ANPR  to  be inconsistent with available
data  and  illogical opposite  recent  and  projected  trends.   This
is   particularly  disconcerting   in   light   of  our   efforts
[Du Pont,  1978;    Masten,   1980]   to  provide   thorough   and
accurate  data  to the Agency and  its  contractors  in  hopes  that
such cooperation would result in a reliable, shared data base on
which deliberations and decisions could be made.

           It  should be  noted  that a meaningful  discussion  of
EPA's treatment  of current  and  projected production and emission
figures  for  CFCs in the  U.S. and  the   world  is difficult  due to
the  irreproducibility  of EPA'S numbers.  The sources referenced
in  the  ANPR  offer either no numbers  or  substantially different
numbers than those used by EPA for the  categories discussed.
1TheAgency  issued  a memo from  Carroll  Bastion  to  E. Douglas
Kenna  on 12/11/80 which  contained analyses of  how EPA  reached
some of  its  estimates,  and which acknowledged numerous  errors  in
previously  cited estimates.   Receipt of  this memo  on  12/15/80
did  not  permit  incorporation  of  analysis of  its  contents  in
Du Pont's  ANPR  response.   It will  be  responded  to at a  later
date,  and this  response  should  be considered part  of  Du Pont's
ANPR comments.
                                J-3

-------
                                     CFC Production and Emissions
2.   CURRENT U.S.  CFC PRODUCTION


          In the  ANPR,  it is stated:

              "Production  of  CFCs  in  the   United   States  is
              expected to  grow at a  7 percent  annual  rate [in
              the absence  of  any further  regulation]  from 600
              million  pounds  in  1980  to  1.2  billion  pounds  in
              1990,   according  to  the  report  on  CFC  control
              written for EPA by the  Rand Corporation."

      The cited Rand Report provides the  following estimates for
CFC  production  of  CFC-11,  12,  22   and  113   (quantities  in
106 Ib.) :
                           1976                       1990
                 [Rand, 1980, Table 3.1]     [Rand, 1980, Table 3.3]

                             Total Minus                 Total Minus
                   Total       CFC-22          Total       CFC-22
Production          891          721            1147         762
Sales for Non-
 aerosol use*       474          357             957         692
                *A term defined  as production  minus  aerosol use and
                "minus  internal  use,  exports, packaging  and  tran-
                sport  emissions,  and  certain  limited refrigeration
                uses."

          The  first thing  to be  noted  is  that  Rand makes  no

estimates for 1980.  Second,  the estimates Rand  does make  (1976)
include  the  use of CFC-22  as an intermediate which,  because  it
is a  non-emitting  use, should be subtracted  from  all production
and emissions estimates.
                                J-4

-------
                                     CFC Production and Emissions
      Actual  production of  the  five  major  CFCs   in  1980  is

estimated  by  Du  Pont  to  be  approximately  755 million  pounds,
excluding  CFC-22  used  as  an  intermediate.     Over   the  last

three years Du  Pont  annually  has analyzed data published  by the

United States International Trade Commission for  CFCs-11,  12 and

22,  and supplemented  these  data with  Du  Font's  estimates  of

CFC-113 and 114  production.   Table  1 below shows  production for

the years 1977, 1978 and 1979 by product and by total.


                              TABLE 1


                        U.S. CFC PRODUCTION

                             (106 LB.)
Year    CFC-11   CFC-12   CFC-22   CFC-113   CFC-114    TOTAL
                                                25       830

                                                29       806

                                                18       755
1977
1978
1979
213
194
173
358
327
287
134
156
153
100
100
124
        It  is  quite  obvious  from  this  data  and  preliminary

estimates for 1980 sales,  that production  of  the  five major CFCs
in  1980  will substantially  exceed  the 600 million  pound figure
put forth by EPA.
        2
         CFC-11, 12, 22, 113 and 114.
              production  figures  for  CFC-22  in  this  Appendix
        exclude CFC-22  use  as  an intermediate.   We estimate this
        use  in 1979 was approximately  60  million pounds.  There-
        fore, total CFC production  in  1979 was  approximately 815
        million pounds.  This  figure was  used  in  Section II-CFC
        Uses and Essentiality  -  as  the  basis  for calculating the
        approximate  percentages  of  total  CFC production  by end
        use  application.
                                J-5

-------
                                     CFC Production and Emissions
3.  PROJECTED GROWTH OF U.S. CFC PRODUCTION

      EPA's  projection  that U.S. CFC  production will  reach 1.2
billion  pounds  by  1990  seems  questionable.   Rand  did estimate
1990 U.S.  production at  1147  million  pounds,  but  this  must be
put  into  context.   As  noted  in  the  previous  section,  the
estimate  is overstated  because  it  includes  CFC-22  production
which   is   used   as  an   intermediate,   a   non-emitting  use.
Additionally,   the   situation   at   the  time  of   Rand's  work
(1978-1979)  and  the  underlying  assumptions made by  Rand  at that
time are quite different than today's realities.

      Rand  assumed  in  its  base case  that  there  would  be  no
further  regulations  and,   implicitly,   no   threat  of   further
regulation.  In  reality,  of course, the  threat  of  regulation of
the non-aerosol  uses of  CFCs has been  keenly  felt  over the last
few years  and EPA's  pronouncements  over the past  year  have only
intensified  this concern.   Regardless of  the  level of  regulatory
activity on  CFCs  by  EPA,  until such time  as  the  validity of the
depletion  theory  is resolved,  CFC-users  will  continue  to  be
highly  uncertain over the  future  for  CFCs.   Such  concern will
have  a  dampening  effect   on  future  growth   --  users will  be
reluctant  to commit  to  new products or processes  dependent upon
an  unsure   future   availability  of CFCs.    Only  a  favorable
resolution  of   the  theory, with  an  attendant  removal   of  any
future   regulatory   threat  would   result   in   actual   growth
approaching Rand's projections.

      This  uncertainty  also  affects   the CFC  producers  to  a
degree which further  throws into  question the appropriateness of
EPA using  Rand's artificial base line  estimate as  a  real world
forecast.   Under the base  line numbers,  substantial   production
capacity would  have  to be  added for the U.S.  production to reach
1.2 billion pounds  of CFCs.  But  it  is  highly  improbable that
                                J-6

-------
                                  CFC Production and Emissions
business managers would make  the  significant  capital investments
required to  build  new  capacity (generally about  $0.85  per pound
of  annual  capacity)  due  to the  great  uncertainty  whether  such
expansion  could  return its  investment  in  the  face  of  possible
further major  CFC regulation.  We are  aware  of  no indications
that substantial  additional CFC  capacity  has  been  initiated or
planned.

      The  combination  of  erroneous  base  figures  for   1980  CFC
production,  coupled   with   an  unrealistic  estimate   of  1990
production  given  the  current  regulatory  climate,  makes the  7
percent   growth    rate   projected   by    EPA   unreasonable   and
unsupportable.
                                J-7

-------
                                  CFC Production and Emissions
4.  WORLD CFC EMISSIONS AND GROWTH
      EPA states in the ANPR:
                 "Total  world  emissions,  in  the  absence  of  any
              further regulation,  are  projected  to  grow  at  a  9
              percent annual rate over  the  next  decade, from 1.5
              billion pounds  in  1980  to  4.5 billion  pounds in
              1990,  according  to  EPA analysis of  data collected
              for the Chemical Manufacturers Association."
There are several problems with this statement:


      a)    First,  these  numbers  represent  another  example  of

EPA's  careless   treatment  and  publication  of  numbers.   If  one

assumes that 1980  world emissions will total  1.5  billion pounds

and  then  projects  a  9  percent annual  growth  for 10  years,  the

result is 3.55 billion pounds, not 4.5  billion pounds.
[1.5 x (1.09)10) = 3.55]


      b)   Second,  EPA alludes  to  an  analysis of data provided by

the Chemical Manufacturers Association  (CMA)  to lend credence to

their  figures.   Table  2 on  the  next  page shows  the  CMA data

[CMA,  1980b]  for  the  years  1974-1979  for  CFC-11  and  12,  the

only CFCs consistently  reported on by CMA.
                                J-8

-------
                                  CFC Production and Emissions
      YEAR
      1974
      1975
      1976
      1977
      1978
      1979
                              TABLE  2
               CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS' ASSOCIATION
               WORLD  PRODUCTION OF CFCS-11  and -12
                             (106 LB.)
            CFC-11
              833
              714
              772
              732
              708
              666
CFC-12
TOTAL
1045
923
992
936
913
882
1878
1637
1764
1668
1621
1548
      Compound Annual Rate:  -3.8 percent

Du Font's estimate of world production of  the  five  major  CFCs is
shown below in Table 3.
                              TABLE  3
YEAR

1977
1978
1979
CFC-11

 732
 708
 666
WORLD

CFC-12
936
913
882
CFC PRODUCTION
(106 LB.)
CFC-22
226
252
289

CFC-113
155
175
201
            CFC-114

               40
               47
               40
          TOTAL

          2089
          2095
          2078
Compound Annual Rate:  -0.26 percent
                               J-9

-------
                                  CFC Production and Emissions

          It is  difficult,  if not  impossible,  to  understand how
EPA could  interpret  the  available data, which  shows a declining
trend  for  world  production,  as  supporting  their  claim  of  a  9
percent growth rate for the next decade.

          c)  Third,  the  European  Economic  Community  (EEC)  has
recently  called  for  a   30   percent   reduction of  CFC  use   in
aerosols from  1976  levels by December  1981.   EPA  states  in the
ANPR  that  EEC  members accounted  for  39  percent  of  the  world
production  of   CFCs   in  1977.   Therefore,  it   seems   even  more
unlikely that  world  growth  could  approach  the 9  percent level
claimed by EPA.

          d)  Fourth,  similar to  the  U.S.  situation, such growth
of world CFC production would  require  major capacity  additions,
which,  in  turn,  would require  major  new  capital  investments  in
manufacturing  facilities.   Although   other   countries  have  not
taken  the  severe actions  being  pursued by EPA, bans or mandated
reductions  in  aerosol use of CFCs  by  some  nations,  coupled with
an  EEC  moratorium   on new  capacity  for   CFC-11   and  12,  have
generated  sufficient  concern  to make  investments  in  major  new
capacity prior  to resolution of the science  improbable.
                               J-10

-------
                                     CFC Production and Emissions
5.
U.S. SHARE OF WORLD CFC PRODUCTION
          In  1971,  the U.S.  share of  world  production  of  CFCs
was  about  51.5  percent  [IMOS,   1975] .   Since  that  time,  U.S.
share has  steadily  declined.  Table 4  below  (Du Pont estimates)
compares  the  U.S.  production  of  CFCs  to  the  world  total,
illustrating the ongoing decline in U.S. share.

                              TABLE 4

                U.S. SHARE OF WORLD CFC PRODUCTION
                    CFCs-11, 12,  22,  113,  114
                             (106  LB.)
     YEAR
             WORLD
           PRODUCTION
   U.S.
PRODUCTION
     1977
     1978
     1979
              2089
              2095
              2078
    830
    806
    775
39.7
38.5
36.3
          As  discussed   in  detail   in  Section   VI,   further
regulation  of  U.S.  production  and  use alone  cannot solve  the
problem,  if  it  exists.   In  the  ANPR,  EPA's Table  3 graphically
illustrates that  further  unilateral  action by the  U.S.  does  not
significantly alter  the total ozone depletion potential.
                               J-ll

-------
                                  CFC Production and Emissions
6.    ESTIMATES SHOULD  BE  BASED ON  CALCULATED  OZONE  DEPLETION
      POTENTIAL FACTORS - PERMIT POUNDS, NOT CFC POUNDS

          In  the  ANPR,  EPA  discusses  the  depletion  potential
factors  for  the  different  CFCs.    (We   provide  our  updated
methodology and results  in  Appendix G.)  However,  no effort has
been made  by  EPA  to integrate  this  important concept  into the
discussions  of CFC  production  and  emission  growth.    Table  5
shows the U.S. production of  major  CFCs for  several recent  years
adjusted  for  calculated   ozone  depletion   potential.   It   is
significant that  actual  pounds  have decreased  at  an annual rate
of  roughly  5  percent  but  the rate of  decline has  been roughly
7.0  percent  when   the  data  is  adjusted  for  the  calculated
relative depletion potential.

          Comparable analysis of  the  world  production of CFCs  is
shown  in  Table 6.   The  actual  world  pounds have  declined  at  an
annual  rate of roughly  0.3 percent  but the  relative  depletion
potential  adjusted  pounds  have  declined  at  an  annual  rate  of
approximately  2.1 percent.
                               J-12

-------
                                                 TABLE 5
                                     U.S. CFC PRODUCTION  (10  Lbs.)

                      ADJUSTED FOR CALCULATED RELATIVE OZONE DEPLETION  POTENTIAL


                                      (Normalized  for  CFC-11 = 1.0)
i
H-
U)
CFC
Actual
fc Lbs.
CFC-11 213
CFC-12 358
CFC-224 134
CFC-11 3 100
CFC-114 25
TOTAL 830
1977
Calculated
Relative Adjusted
Depletion Lbs.
Potential
1.00 213
0.84 301
0.03 4
0.82 82
0.61 15
615

Actual
Lbs .
194
327
156
100
29
806
Approximate Annual Growth Rates:
• Actual Pounds ~-5
• Calculated Ozone
Depletion Potential
Adjusted Pounds ~- 7



1978
Calculated
Relative Adjusted
Depletion Lbs.
Potential
1.00 194
0.84 275
0.03 5
0.82 82
0.61 18
574
percent
percent

1979
Calculated
Actual Relative Adjusted
Lbs. Depletion Lbs.
Potential
173 1.00 173
287 0.84 241
153 0.03 5
124 0.82 102 £
**i
18 0.61 11 °
»d
n
755 532 £
0
rt-
H-
o
3
0>
3
a
w
3
M-
CO
CO
»-••
O
3
           Excluding CFC-22  used as Intermediate

-------
                                     TABLE 6
                         WORLD CFC PRODUCTION UO  Lbs.)
           ADJUSTED FOR CALCULATED RELATIVE  OZONE DEPLETION POTENTIAL

                          (Normalized for CFC-11  = 1.0)
CFC
Actual
# Lbs.
CFC-11 732
CFC- 12 936
CFC-225 226
CFC- 11 3 155
CFC-114 40
TOTAL 2089
1977
Calculated
Relative Adjusted
Depletion Lbs.
Potenti al
1.00 732
0.84 786
0.03 7
0.82 127
0.61 24
1676
1978
Actual
Lbs .
708
913
252
175
47
2095
Approximate Annual Growth Rates:
• Actual Pounds ~-.3
• Calculated Ozone
Depletion Potential
Adjusted Pounds ~- 2.





Calculated
Relative Adjusted
Depletion Lbs.
Potential
1.00 708
0.84 767
0.03 8
0.82 144
0.61 29
1656
percent
1 percent

1979
Calculated
Actual Relative Adjusted
Lbs. Depletion Lbs.
Potential
666 1.00 666
882 0.84 741
289 0.03 9
201 0.82 165 n
40 0.61 24 0
*d
ri
2078 1605 a
o
rt
H-
O
3
0)
QJ
W
3
H-
cn
CO
H-
0
en
Excluding CFC-22 used as Intermediate

-------
                                  CFC Production and Emissions
          Clearly, a  production decrease of  the CFCs  of  higher
calculated ozone  depletion  potential results  in  the  total ozone
depletion potential  adjusted  pounds declining more  sharply than
the  decline  in   actual  pounds.    The  regulatory  initiatives
elsewhere in  the  world  are  focusing on  CFC-11  and  CFC-12 (the
very compounds  with  the greatest calculated  potential  for ozone
depletion)  as  aerosol  propellants  (e.g.,  the   EEC  30  percent
cutback).t Therefore,  actual  future production  of  CFCs  should
continue  to overstate  the potential for  calculated  future ozone
depletion.  This  important  fact must  be considered  by EPA when
projecting  future production  and  emission  figures,  since  any
ozone  depletion  occurring  will  be  proportional  to  the  ozone
depletion potential  adjusted  pounds,  not  the actual  pounds  of
production or emissions.  EPA should not use  one  set of numbers
(ozone depletion  potential  pounds  or permit  pounds)  to make its
case in one argument but switch to  a second  set (actual pounds)
to make its case in another.
                               J-15

-------
                                     CFC Production and Emissions
7.    SUMMARY

          In summary, EPA's analysis of  production and emissions
is  inaccurate/  misleading and  unsubstantiated.   The  above  com-
ments show that:

          •   1980 U.S. CFC production  (excluding  CFC-22  used as
              an intermediate) will  approach  755  million  pounds,
              not 600 million pounds.

          •   It  is very improbable  that U.S.   CFC  production
              would grow  at 7 percent through 1990.

          •   It  is  unreasonable to project  a 9  percent growth
              rate for world CFC emissions.

          •   U.S. share  of CFC production has been declining,

          •   The  calculated  potential for ozone  depletion must
              be  considered  when  analyzing  and   projecting  the
              production  and emissions of CFCs.
                               J-16

-------
X.  APPENDIX K
         INDUSTRY FUNDED FLUOROCARBON RESEARCH PROGRAM -
         EFFECT OF CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS ON THE ATMOSPHERE
        (PREPARED BY CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION
                   FLUOROCARBON PROJECT PANEL)
Note:  References  cited  in  Appendix  K   are   internal  to  this
       appendix  and  are  not  necessarily  listed  in  Section  XI
       "BIBLIOGRAPHY."
                               K-i

-------
        CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION
                 Fluorocarbon Research Program

       Effect of Chlorofluorocarbons on the Atmosphere

                        Revision No. 14
     The Fluorocarbon Research Program, sponsored  and funded by
the industry  is  summarized in Revision No.  14,  November 30, 1980.
Italics indicate developments since Revision No. 13.

     For additional information, please contact the  investigator
or CMA.  Please  note the new CMA address.

                               Sincerely,
                             ^      C. Van Horn
                            / 'Administrator
                           ('/' Fluorocarbon Program
                           v  Telephone:  202/887-1194
Attachment:   Revision No. 14
November 30,  1980
                            K-ii
       Formerly Manufacturing Chemists Association—Serving the Chemical Industry Since 1872.

    2501 M Street, NW • Washington. DC 20037 • Telephone 202/887-1100 • Telex 89617 (CMA WSH)

-------
                           SUMMARY


                     Research Program on



       EFFECT OF CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS ON THE ATMOSPHERE
       Sponsored by:  The Chlorofluorocarbon Industry
Prepared by:       B. Peter Block
                   Hillel Magid
                   Richard B. Ward
Distributed by:    Chemical Manufacturers Association
                   2501 M Street,  N.W.
                   Washington, D.  C.   20037
           (Originally Issued:  September 26, 1975)

               Revision No. 14:  November 30, 1980
                              K-iii

-------
                      TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                         Page

Summary and Recommendations                                1

The Industry-Sponsored Program                             2

Assessment of Uncertainties                                4

Goals of the Industry-Sponsored Program                    5

Efforts to Resolve Current Uncertainties                   7



Tables:

   1  Chlorofluorocarbon Manufacturers Represented on
      the CMA Technical Panel on Chlorofluorocarbon
      Research                                            10

   2  Chlorofluorocarbon Research Program - Financial
      Summary                                             11

   3  Chlorofluorocarbon Research Program - Types of
      Research Activities, Summaries                      12

          A.  Reaction Rate Constant Measurements         12
          B.  Source and Sink Studies                     17

          C.  Laboratory Studies Related to Potential
              Atmospheric Measurements                    22

          D.  Tropospheric and Stratospheric Measure-
              ments                                       30
          E.  Modeling                                    38

          F.  Other                                       41
          G.  Consultants                                 43

   4A CMA Projects - Work Completed                     .  44

   4B CMA Projects - Work in Progress                     53

   5  Publications from Work Supported by Chlorofluoro-
      carbon Manufacturers                                57


Index to Table 3 by Investigator and Project Number       73
                             K-iv

-------
                             SUMMARY

                       Research Program on

         EFFECT OF CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS  ON THE ATMOSPHERE


          Sponsored by the Chlorofluorocarbon Industry
     Administered by the  Chemical  Manufacturers  Association


            (Originally Issued:  September 26, 1975)
                 Revision No.  14:   November 30,  1980
     This  summary  describes work supported by  the manufacturers
of  chlorofluorocarbons  (CFCs,  sometimes  called fluorocarbons)
in  an attempt  to assess the possible impact of these chemicals
on  the environment and, in particular, on the  stratospheric
ozone layer.

Summary and Recommendations
     In 1972 the CFC manufacturers began supporting a program to
investigate the effects of CFCs on the environment.  This program
has been expanded  greatly to help determine the extent, if any,
to which these compounds may affect the stratospheric ozone layer.
Industry and government-sponsored scientists working on the
halogen-ozone problem have cooperated effectively.  Continuation
of this cooperation ie-essential, with special attention to
providing periodically updated summaries of research priorities,
programs, and results, together with critical  analyses of the
reliability and significance of the data.
     The programs  now under way to develop methods for determin-
ing the ozone changes that are actually occurring  (as opposed to
hypothetical or calculated ozone changes), to  determine the
actual tropospheric lifetimes of CFCs 11 and 12  (now assumed to
                               K-l

-------
be infinite in most models), and to resolve important questions
about key stratospheric species—0-, CIO, total chlorine—will
lead to a much better understanding of the effect of the CFCs
on stratospheric ozone.
     The industry position  continues to be:
        The ozone depletion theory warrants serious concern
        and continuing investigation.
        The international scientific consensus necessary to
        resolve this issue  must be based on convincing measure-
        ments and evaluations, not theory.
        Convincing experimental evidence can be obtained to
        verify or disprove  the theory quantitatively.
        There is time to perform these necessary experiments
        without significant risk to the health and welfare of
        the population.


The  Industry-Sponsored Program
     In July of 1972, E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company issued
to CFC manufacturers worldwide an invitation to a "Seminar on
the  Ecology of Fluorocarbons."  Its purpose was to establish a
technical program because,  as stated in the invitation,
          "Fluorocarbons are  intentionally or accidentally
          vented to the atmosphere worldwide at a rate
          approaching one billion pounds per year.  These
          compounds may be  either accumulating in the
          atmosphere or returning to the surface, land or
          sea, in the pure  form or as decomposition prod-
          ucts.  Under any  of these alternatives, it is
          prudent that we investigate any effects which
          the compounds may produce on plants or animals
          now or in the future."
                               K-2

-------
     Representatives of 15 companies attended the meeting,
agreed that such a program was important, and established and
funded a CFC research program under the administration of the
Chemical Manufacturers Association  (CMA).  Thus, in 1972, with
no evidence that CFCs could harm the environment, the producers
of these chemicals agreed that there was a need for more infor-
mation and proceeded to act.
     The CFC producers supporting this program (see Table 1,
p. 10) represent almost the total free world production of CFCs.
The research is directed by the CMA Fluorocarbon Project Panel
with one member from each supporting company.  This Panel meets
regularly to review progress on current research, evaluate new
proposals, and exchange data with contractors, with government
agencies, and with other scientists.  A significant fraction of
the support for this program comes  from European CFC producers,
and two meetings per year are held  in Europe.

     Publication of the Rowland-Molina hypothesis in 1974 iden-
tified a potentially serious problem, so the CMA research program
was expanded considerably.  The CFC-ozone relationship attracted
the attention of many scientists in academic and government lab-
oratories, legislative and regulatory bodies, and the press.
CMA's program is concentrating on research most likely to answer
the critical question:  to what extent will CFCs affect the
stratospheric ozone layer?
     To strengthen the overall effort to find the answer, CMA
has attempted to coordinate its efforts with others working on the
same or related problems such as the Supersonic Transport and the
space shuttle.  All of these problems concern the federal govern-
ment, and interactions with a number of agencies have been espe-
cially helpful in:
     1.  Taking advantage of the knowledge and experience
         gained in the Climatic Impact Assessment Program;
     2.  Coordinating funding of programs addressing the
         halogen-ozone problem;
     3.  Planning joint experiments with government research
         groups;  and
                               K-3

-------
     4.  Helping to set priorities for  industry-sponsored
         research.
     About 355 research proposals have  been reviewed  to date,
and projects totaling about  $9.5 million have been funded  (see
Table 2, p. 11).  Calendar 1981 commitments are expected to be
almost $2 million, and total expenditures through 1981 will be
over $11 million.

Assessment of Uncertainties
     Two groups in the United States were charged during 1975
with looking exclusively at the scientific aspects of the halo-
carbon-ozone problem and making recommendations for further work.
In May 1975 the government's Interdepartmental Committee for
Atmospheric Sciences  (ICAS) made recommendations for research and
monitoring programs.  In July 1975 the  Panel on Atmospheric Chem-
istry of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) identified a
number of areas in which relevant data  are nonexistent, frag-
mentary, or insufficient and in September 1976 issued a final
report containing recommendations for pertinent studies.  Its
parent  committee, the NAS Committee on Impacts of Stratospheric
Change, then recommended that up to two years be allowed before
a decision was made on the necessity for restrictive action.
     The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 (U. S. Public Law 95-95)
established the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as the
agency responsible for assessing the probable effect of CFCs on
the ozone layer.  Other U. S. agencies  are given various responsi-
bilities in the scientific effort required to support any decisions,
and the EPA is required to rely on the  NAS for advice on the status
of the science.  In November 1979 the NAS Panel on Atmospheric
Chemistry and Transport issued its latest report on the status of
the CFC-Ozone theory.
     Significant additions to pp. 4 - 9 since the last revision
are italicized.
                                K-4

-------
Goals of the Industry-Sponsored Program
     The emphasis of the CMA-administered industry program has
been overwhelmingly in the major areas recommended for further
study by the NAS Panel and ICAS.  The industry-sponsored program,
therefore, aims to fill in the most important gaps in existing
scientific knowledge.  The only major area not in the CMA program
is acceleration of ozone monitoring, which can be accomplished
more appropriately by governmental and international agencies.
In addition, the CMA program has included work to correlate UV
radiation reaching the ground with ozone measurements and to
improve the statistical treatment of ozone data so that very
small abnormal changes can be detected in a much shorter period
of time than was previously believed possible.
     The current CMA research program is consistent with the
needs and tasks identified recently by the NAS*:
        Specific tasks include measurement of the wave-
        length dependent quantum yields [photochemical
        reaction rates] and branching ratios  [distribu-
        tion between alternative reaction products] of
        the stratospheric photolysis of species such as
        03, C10N02/ HOC1, and N03>  [Page 45].
        [Studies of] stratospheric chemical processes
        [such as] those with negative activation energies
        and incomprehensible A factors [currently unex-
        plainable differences between theoretically and
        experimentally derived mathematical expressions
        for the reaction rates].  Reactions of H02 species
        are a particular, but not the only, example of
        this need.   [Page 45].
     *Panel on Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport, Committee
on Impacts of Stratospheric Change, National Research Council,
"Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Halocarbons:  Chemistry and
Transport", National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D. C.,
November, 1979.  Added material is identified by square brackets
[ ], as are the pages in the reference where the needs and tasks
appear.
                               K-5

-------
        Laboratory studies of the decomposition of  [CFCs]
        on desert sand should be designed to provide data
        from which atmospheric lifetimes could be directly
        calculated.  [Page 72].
        In several cases, simultaneous measurements of
        photochemically related species (and perhaps
        solar flux) are needed, ...   [Page 100],
        In particular, in the case of the anthropogenic
        halocarbon compounds, the global spatial concen-
        tration distribution and the temporal increase
        need to be better determined.  F-ll, F-12, and
        CH^CCl-j are especially important.   More F-21
        measurements should be carried out.  [Pages 133,
        134].
        A total chlorine concentration measurement would
        be of great value.   [Page 134].
        Reduction of these ranges of uncertainty will
        require more sophisticated and carefully ana-
        lyzed 2-D and, ideally, 3-D models [Page 169],
     The current CMA program also is consistent with the June
1978 recommendation of the Royal Society Study Group,* which
summarized their position as:
     "The surface release of chlorofluoromethanes was
     considered to be a potential, but so far unverified,
     long-term hazard which requires considerable further
     research.  Particular attention must be paid to:
        (a)  the investigation of possible tropospheric
             sink processes, since these can have a
             major effect on predicted effects on strato-
             spheric ozone,
     *Royal Society Study Group, Final Report, June 28, 1978,
"Pollution in the Atmosphere - V.  Problem Areas:  Scientific
Priorities for Research."
                                K-6

-------
         (b)  the simultaneous measurement of key reactants,
             transient intermediates and products in the
             stratosphere in order to test the model hypoth-
             esis and to direct future research, and
         (c)  the development of 2- and 3-dimensional models
             to represent more realistically motions in the
             atmosphere.
     It was agreed that there is no need for hasty action and
     that 3-4 years can be allowed for the research programmes
     currently in train to produce their results."

Efforts to Resolve Current Uncertainties
     There are presently several discrepancies and/or uncertain-
ties that the CMA program is trying to resolve.  Its strato-
spheric measurement program includes the collection of more data
on total Cl, ClO, and HCl to determine the correctness of current
indications that their concentrations do not fit predicted pro-
files.  The observation by others that high CIO concentrations
unexpectedly coexist with normal odd oxygen levels emphasizes
the need for more information on the concentration of chlorine
species.  Simultaneous measurement of several species is neces-
sary to provide a rigorous test of the models, so the strato-
spheric measurement program is also aimed at simultaneous
measurement of important chemical species that are known or
believed to be present in the stratosphere.
     In addition to in. situ stratospheric measurements during
balloon flights, the CMA program includes an effort to develop
ground-based monitoring techniques for some of the important
atmospheric species.  HCl and HF now are routinely measured
from the ground at Jungfraujoch in Switzerland.  Although a
ground-based method to monitor CIO has been developed, its
sensitivity is as. yet insufficient for accurate measurement
of ClO.  This program is continuing, and it is expected that
the sensitivity of the method will be increased by about a
factor of 7 during 1980, permitting accurate, ground-based
measurements of this important stratospheric species.

                                K-7

-------
     Another goal of the CMA program is to determine the tropo-
spheric lifetimes of certain CFCs.  In 1977 the CMA initiated a
program to determine the tropospheric lifetimes of selected
compounds.  Five stations have been set up, three in the northern
hemisphere  (Lovelock and Simmonds, Rasmussen) and two in the
southern  (Rasmussen), to measure the concentrations of CFCs 11 and
12 and other important species several times a day.  Workup of the
analytical data, including incorporation of data on meteorological
conditions at each site, is being carried out under the direction
of CMA modeling contractors  (Cunnold, Alyea, Prinn).  This program
may require a period of three or more years to yield definitive
results.

     The CMA program also seeks to measure rates for those reac-
tions for which the rates are not well established, measure the
ultraviolet and infrared spectra of compounds that may be present
in the stratosphere, and search for chemistry that has not yet
been included in present atmospheric models.  Measurements made
thus far have demonstrated the significance of ClONO-, which was
not originally included in stratospheric models, and have pointed
to the probable importance of HOC1 in stratospheric chemistry.
The program also funds general studies of H02 chemistry, which
led to the revision of the rate constant for the reaction of H02
with NO and essentially eliminated nitrogen oxides as suspected
ozone depleters.  Another study in progress is the investigation
of the formation of higher chlorine oxides.
     Model evaluation and improvement is another facet of the CMA
program.  One objective is to determine to what extent computer
models represent the "real world", and a second is to improve
models in such matters as the diurnal nature of solar radiation
and extension to two-dimensions.  One value of two-dimensional
models is that they permit description of atmospheric species in
terms of both altitude and latitude and include seasonal variations,
facilitating comparison with measurements at a given location.
     Statistical time series analysis is being used to detect
trends in ozone data that are small compared to observed natural
                               X-8

-------
variations.  The method appears very sensitive and may be
capable of establishing a small ozone depletion over a long
period of time.  The depletion calculated to date is larger
than the detection threshold as determined solely on a statis-
tical basis, but the extent to which other factors increase the
threshold is still uncertain.  Ground-based and satellite data
are being analyzed for trends, and methods to assess the magni-
tude of long-term natural trends and instrument drift are being
investigated.  This approach is especially attractive because
it seeks to answer directly the question of prime importance:
is stratospheric ozone depletion really occurring to the extent
predicted by the models?
     More detail on the CMA program is given in Tables 3, 4A,
and 4B.  Table 3 (p. 12} lists summaries of the projects by type
of research activity.  Table 4A (p. 44) lists completed projects,
and Table 4B (p. 53) lists active projects in chronological
order of funding.  Table 5 (p. 57)  lists publications resulting
from industry-sponsored work.  A document that relates the goals
of the individual industry-sponsored projects to the reduction
of uncertainties in the CFC-ozone question has been submitted to
EPA.*
     In addition to the work supported by the CFC industry at
universities and other laboratories, there are studies underway
in the laboratories of individual member companies who have
scientists able to make significant contributions to the resolu-
tion of the problem.  Three problems have received particular
attention by industry scientists:  the identification and quanti-
fication of tropospheric sinks for CFCs, the application of
statistical methods to detect abnormal trends in stratospheric
ozone concentrations, and the evaluation and development of
modeling techniques.
     *The Fluorocarbon Industry Research Program and Current
Uncertainties in the Ozone Depletion Theory, E. I. du Pont de
Nemours & Company, Inc., November, 1979.
                                K-9

-------
                      Table  1
         CHLOROFLUOROCARBON  MANUFACTURERS
                represented  on the
CMA TECHNICAL PANEL ON CHLOROFLUOROCARBON RESEARCH

Akzo Chemie bv  (Holland)
Allied Chemical Corporation  (U.S.)
Asahi Glass Co., Ltd. (Japan)
Australian Fluorine Chemicals Pty. Ltd.  (Australia)
Daikin Kogyo Co., Ltd.  (Japan)
E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Inc.  (U.S.)
Essex Chemical Corporation  (Racon)  (U.S.)
Du Pont Canada, Inc.  (Canada)
Hoechst AG (West Germany)
Imperial Chemical Industries Limited  (England)
I.S.C. Chemicals Ltd. (England)
Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corporation  (U.S.)
Kali-Chemie Aktiengesellschaft (West Germany)
Mitsui Fluorochemicals Co. Ltd.  (Japan)
Montedison S.p.A. (Italy)
Pennwalt Corporation  (U.S.)
Rhdne-Poulenc Industries (France)
Showa Denko K. K. (Japan)
Ugine Kuhlmann, Produits Chimiques  (France)
Union Carbide Corporation  (U.S.)*
                                            November 30,  1980
     *Does not currently manufacture chlorofluorocarbons.
Supported the CMA program through June, 1977.
                       K-10

-------
                                     Table 2

                     CHLOROFLUOROCARBON  RESEARCH PROGRAM

                                Administered by
                      Chemical Manufacturers Association

                               Financial  Summary
Type of Activity8
A.  Reaction Rate  Constant Measure-
      ments

B.  Source and Sink Studies

C.  Laboratory Studies Related to
      Potential Atmospheric Measurements

D.  Tropospheric and  Stratospheric
      Measurements

E and F.   Modeling and Other Projects

G.  Consulting

             SUBTOTAL

    Administrative Expenses

             TOTAL
 Completed
  Projects
    693,796


  1,825,967

  1,033,082

    140,403

$5,484,607
   Active
  Projects
Total
$   494,016    $    409,507  $   903,523

  1,297,343         410,091    1,707,434
     427,347    1,121,143


   1,249,906    3,075,873

     978,594    2,011,676

      42,869      183,272
$  3,518,314  $ 9,002,921

                 509,714

             $ 9,512,635
    Individual projects are summarized  in Table 4.
                                                                November 30, 1980
                                       K-ll

-------
                             Table 3*

               Chlorofluorocarbon Research Program

             Types of Research Activities, Summaries


A.  Reaction Rate Constant Measurements

         Dr. J. W. BIRKS — University of Illinois — 75-1,
         76-117A.  Measurement of Reaction Rates Relevant to
         the Fluorocarbon-Ozone Problem  (completed).

    Reaction rates were measured at various temperatures by a
    discharge flow technique, and a quadrupole mass spectrometer
    was used for detection of products.  The reaction CIO + N02 +
    M -»• C10N02 + M has the reaction rate 4.40 ± 0.66 x 10~33 exp[(1087
    ± 70)/T]cm6molec-2s-l for M = N2.  No reaction of C10N02 with
    NO, N02, 03, or HC1 was observed, indicating that these reac-
    tions are unimportant as sinks for C10N02.

    Reaction rates for CIO + 03 -*• OC10 + 02, CIO + 03 •»• C100 + 02,
    and OC10 + 03 -»• 0103 + 02 rule out successive oxidation of
    chlorine to perchloric acid based on the calculated photolysis
    constant for OC10 of 7.6 x 10~2 s"1, but there is currently
    disagreement on the accuracy of the calculated photolysis con-
    stant.

    The reaction CIO + 1^02 was not rapid enough to measure, with
    no evidence for new products.  The reaction Cl + ^02 •»• HC1 +•
    H02 has a reaction rate between 10~^3 and 10~12  cm^molec^s"1.
    The reaction Cl + ^©2 -" HC1 + ©2 (primarily, •*• HO + CIO to a
    minor extent) is fast.  The reaction CIO + S02 + 02 + C100 +
    303 is slow.

    Rate measurements on NO + 03, 0 + C10N02/ and BrO + N02 have
    been studied.  A 15% higher activation energy for NO + 03 •*•
    N02 + 02 has been measured.  Four-center reactions o-f C10C1
    with Cl, 0, N, or CIO were studied by molecular beam mass
    spectrometry, with reaction at the 0 atom in C10C1 indicated
    in each case.

         Dr. J. W. BIRKS — University of Colorado — 77-192, 78-
         244, 79-276, 80-321, 80-329.  Studies of Homogeneous and
         Heterogeneous Reactions of Importance in the Stratosphere.

    The studies that were made at the University of Illinois (75-1
    and 76-117A, p. 12, and 76-117B, p. 17)  are being continued.
    *Significant additions since the last revision are italicized.
                                K-12

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

The rate constant for the reaction CIO + H02 •* HOC1 + 02 was
found to be independent of pressure over the range 2-6 torr,
the result being k^ =  (4.5 ± 0.9) x 10~12 cm3molec"ls"1.  An
upper limit of 2% for the branching ratio to the alternative
products of this reaction, HC1 + 03, was established by attempt-
ing to detect ozone as a reaction product.  The effect of 02
or N2 in the presence of He or Ar on the C10+ mass spectrometer
ion current at room temperature and at 245°K is also being
studied.  A value for the reaction rate for 2H02 •* H202 + 02 has
been obtained, agreeing with previous measurements (3 to 4 x
10-12 cm3molec""ls~l) .  The temperature dependence will be exam-
ined.

The rate constants for the reaction of HO with HOC1 and with
H02N02 will be measured using a flash photolysis-resonance fluo-
rescence technique.   A quadrupole mass spectrometer operating
in the positive ion mode will be used for detection in these
reactions.  The technique of negative ion mass spectrometry will
be developed for determining products and measuring the rate
constants for the following reactions: HO + H02> CIO + H02/ ClOO
+ NO, and OC100 + NO.  In addition the flash photolysis products
from HOC1, ClOO, and OC100 are to be examined.  The nature of
these products and the quantum efficiency with which these species
photolyze are potentially important factors in the calculation
of the ozone depletion estimate in the presence of odd chlorine.

      Dr. C. J. HOWARD — National Oceanic and Atmospheric
      Administration, Boulder — 76-100.  Laser Magnetic
      Resonance Study of H02 Chemistry  (completed).

 H02 reactions of stratospheric importance are being measured
 using a laser magnetic resonance technique.  The rate con-
 stant for the reaction H02 + N02 + M f HOON02 + M is 1.5 to
 2.0 x 10*31 cm6molec-2s-l.  The major pathway is the production
 of peroxynitric acid, a species not previously considered in
 the models.

 The rate constant for the reaction H02 + NO •* N02 + OH is 8 ± 2
 x iQ-12 cmSmolec-is"1 at room temperature, a value about 30
 times faster than the previously accepted value.  The tempera-
 ture dependence of this reaction has been measured.

 The rate constant for the reaction between H02 and 03 is 1.4 x
 10~14 exp(-580/T) cm3molec-ls-l.

 The reactions of HO and H02 with ^05 appear to be very slow
 and consequently not important in the atmosphere.

      Dr. C. J. HOWARD — National Oceanic and Atmospheric
      Administration, Boulder - 77-223.  Study of CIO Chemistry
      by Laser Magnetic Resonance (completed).

 The rate constant for the reaction H02 + CIO •+• HOC1 + 02 is
 3.3 x 10-11 exp(-850/T) + 4.5 x lO'*2lT/300)-3.7 cm3molec-ls-l


                             K-13

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

over the temperature range 235-393°K.  Thus the reaction has
a negative activation energy, indicating the possibility of
an intermediate complex.  A search is in progress for 03, a
product of the alternate channel H02 + CIO •* HC1 + 03, which
would act as an odd oxygen source  (cf. 79-289, p. 14).

     Dr. C. J. HOWARD — National Oceanic and Atmospheric
     Administration, Boulder — 79-289.  Kinetic Studies
     of Stratospheric Chlorine Chemistry.  •

A system suitable for determining the products of many signifi
cant atmospheric reactions using tunable infrared diode laser
detection has been built.
A new method for accurately measuring U^O in the atmosphere
using a tunable diode laser has been developed.  A flow system
using LMR detection has been built for measuring the rate con-
stants of important reactions at pressures and temperatures
corresponding to those actually present in the stratosphere.

     Dr. M. J. KURYLO — National Bureau of Standards —
     78-233.  Rates of Reaction of Cl Atoms with the Primary
     Products of Alkane Photooxidation  (completed) .

Flash photolysis resonance fluorescence (FPRF) has been used
to establish an upper limit rate constant for Cl + OCS  (1 x
10~13 cm^molec-is-l (220-3238K) ) .  The reaction rate for Cl +
H2CO has been confirmed as  (1.09 ± 0.4) x 10~10 exp[-(131 ±
98)/T] cm3molec-lsec-l.  The rate for OH + CH3CC13 is (5.41 ±
1.84) x 10-12 exp[-(1813 ± 95) /T] cm^molec-ls-1.  This lower
rate suggests higher tropospheric OH concentration.  An upper
limit of. < 3 x 10~16 cm3molec-1s~1 for the reaction CH3 + 02
•* OH + H2CO at 368 °K is based on failure to detect either product.

The temperature-dependent rate for the ozone formation reaction
0 + 02 + M  (M = N2, 02, Ar) has been measured, providing the
first detailed analysis for M = N2 and p2, and indicating a
weaker temperature dependence than previously assumed for 02.
The recommended value for ozone formation in air [1.07 x 1Q-35
exp(525 ± 60/T) cm6molec~2s-1] is similar to the current NASA
recommendation.  Studies of atmospheric quenching of 02 (^A, V
> 0) indicate that vibrational quenching dominates over any
possible reactivity of this species in the stratosphere.

     Dr. M. J. KURYLO — National Bureau of Standards — 80-307.
     Reactions within the HOX Cycle.

Flash photolysis resonance fluorescence will be used to measure
rate constants for the reactions R0% + E02»  BO + HO^HO^t o.nd SO
+ H202.
                           K-14

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

      Dr. J. N. PITTS, JR. — University of California at
      Riverside — 74-2.  Atmospheric Reactions of Fluoro-
      carbons  (completed).

 Reaction rate constants have been measured for the reactions
 of O^D) with CFCs 11, 12, 22, 113, and 114, and of OH with
 CFCs 11, 12, and 22.  The results indicate that in the strato-
 sphere the reaction of O(!D) atoms with CFCs 11 and 12 is
 secondary to photolysis, whereas the reaction of OH with CFC
 22 is much more important than photolysis.  The photooxidation
 products of 11, 12, and 22 at 184.9 nm, i.e., COFCl and COF2
 as appropriate, are also observed to be the products for reac-
 tion with 0(lD).

      Dr. J. N. PITTS, JR. — University of California at
      Riverside — 77-190.  Atmospheric Chemistry of Peroxy-
      nitric Acid (completed).

 The HOoN02 cross sections vary smoothly from 1.6 x lO'l? cm2
 molec-iat 190 nm to ^ 2 x 10-20 cm2molec-l at 330 nm.  The
 infrared cross sections for the 802.7 and 1303.9 cm'l Q
 branches of HOgN02 at 0.06 cm-1 resolution are 2.1 x 10-19
 and 1.8 x 10"18 cm2molec-l, respectively.


      Dr. A. R. RAVISHANKARA — Georgia Institute of
      Technology — 80-295.  A Study of the Reaction
      of OH with CIO.

The rate constant for the overall reaction OH + CIO -»• Products
and for the branch forming HC1 + ©2 as products will be
determined in a discharge flow system.  Microwave interfer-
ometry, a novel technique, will be used in determining the
concentration of HC1.

      Dr. F. STUHL — University of Bochum — 77-170.  Deter-
      mination of the Photodissociation Process and Absorption
      Cross Section of FC-11 and 12 in the Near UV (completed).

 The absorption spectra of some chlorine containing methanes
 (CC14, CHC13, CH2C12, CFC 13, and CFC 31) and ethanes (CFC
 113, CFC 114, CFC 115, CFC 133a, and CFC 142b) and also of
 N20 were determined at wavelengths around 220 nm.  Some of
 these spectra were obtained at both 298 and 2088K.  A chemical
 method was used to determine the absorption cross section
 of CFC 11 at 253.7 nm and the absorption properties at wave-
 lengths greater than 280 nm.  It is concluded from these
 experiments that the tropospheric decay rate of CFC 11 is
 smaller than 10"10 s"l for homogeneous gas phase photolysis.
                             K-15

-------
                   Table 3 (continued)

     Dr. G. A. TAKACS — Rochester Institute of Technology
     — 77-196.  Photoabsorption Cross Sections for Compounds
     of Atmospheric Interest  (completed).

Ultraviolet-visible absorption spectra have been measured and
solar photodissociation rates have been  calculated for S02C12,
CC13N02, CF3NOC1, SOC12, S02F2, S02C1F,  CH3S02C1, and CC13SC1.
A maximum photoabsorption cross section, which indicates a
long stratospheric lifetime, has been established for HCIC^.
Attempts to measure photoabsorption spectra for gaseous
ONO(S02)OH and ONO(S02)C1 were unsuccessful.  Photolysis of
CFC 11 and CC14 in the presence of solid NaCl with wavelengths
longer than 300 nm results in maximums of 2.3 x 10"** and 2.4 x
10~* molec, respectively, photodissociating per incident photon
on the NaCl.

     Dr. B. A. THRUSH — University of Cambridge — 75-58,
     75-5811.  Reactions of the H02 Radical Studied by Laser
     Magnetic Resonance  (completed).

The rate coefficient of the reaction 0 + H02 has been measured
for the first time.  The value found, 3.5 ± 1.0 x 10-H cm3
molec-is"1 at 293°K, improves the fit of the calculated OH
profile with Anderson's recent measurements.  The rate coeffi-
cient of the reaction OH + H02 has been  measured based on
direct measurement of H02 and found to be 5.1 ± 1.6 x 10"H
cm3molec-ls-l at 293°K.
     Dr. J. WIESENFELD — Cornell University — 76-128,
     77-220.  Photochemistry of Small Chlorinated Molecules
     (completed).

The photochemistry of chlorine nitrate was studied by deter-
mining the yields of Cl and ClO from the flash photolysis of
C10N02.  The rate of reaction between 0 and ClON02 has been
measured and is in good agreement with the literature value.

     Dr. R. ZELLNER — University of Goettingen — 77-195.
     Experimental Investigation of the Branching Ratio in
     the O(!D) + H20 Reaction (completed).

The branching ratio in the reaction O^D) + H20 -»• 2 HO (1) and
•*• H2 + 02 .(I1) has been determined at 298°K from direct measure-
ments of HO and H2 to be 0.01 (k^/lci') (+0.005, -0.01).  The
main conclusions to be drawn from this result are:

1.  Reaction 1' is not an important source of H2 in the
    upper stratosphere and mesosphere.

2.  The reduction of mesospheric HOX through the occurrence
    of reaction 1' is not large enough to account for dis-
    crepancies in calculated and measured 03 concentrations.
                          K-16

-------
                        Table 3  (continued)

B.  Source and Sink Studies

         Dr. P. AUSLOOS — National Bureau of Standards —
         77-186, 78-254.  Follow up for Photodecomposition
         of Chloromethanes Absorbed on Silica Surfaces  (com-
         pleted) .

    The decomposition of CF2C12, CFC13, CH3C1, CC14, CH3CCl3,
    and CH2CC12 on Tunisian sand at dilute concentrations  (100
    ppb - 100 ppm) has been investigated in both the presence
    and the absence of light and/or moisture.  Experiments with
    13CCl4, 13CFCl3, and 13CF2C12 in the presence of oxygen show
    that one molecule of 13cc>2 is produced per halomethane molecule
    destroyed on the surface.  For CH3CC13, surface destruction
    leads to CH2CC12 rather than C02-

    Under all conditions relative stabilities were as follows
    CF2C12 > CFC13 > CC14 > CH3CC13 .  Both with and without light
    the rate of surf ace- induced destruction decreases rapidly with
    increasing moisture content.  When the chlorofluoromethanes
    were exposed to sand with a moisture content in equilibrium
    with laboratory air (35% humidity at 20 °C) , no decomposition
    was observed.   However, a sudden reduction in moisture con-
    tent by 40% or more leads to a measurable destruction rate
    for CC14 and
          Dr. J. W. BIRKS — University of Illinois — 76-117B.
          Studies of Heterogeneous Reactions  (completed) .

     Potentially important heterogeneous reactions were  studied.
                                            H.SO./H.O
     The value of  for the reaction C10N02 — — - — =-» HOCl + HON02
     lies in the range 2 x 10~4 to 10"3.

          Dr. M. J. CAMPBELL — Washington State University —
          75-53.  Chlorofluoromethane Destruction by Natural
          lonization (completed) .

     Laboratory measurements at high irradiation levels  show large
     rate constants for removal of CC14 and CFC 11.  The rate con-
     stant for CFC 12 is much smaller.  The significance of these
     results with respect to atmosphere sinks for the CFCs is
     questionable.

          Drs. D. M. CUNNOLD, F. N. ALYEA, and R. G. PRINN —
          CAP Associates — 77-213, 78-251, 79-281,  80-323.
          Coordination and Analysis of  Data for the Atmospheric
          Lifetime Experiment  (ALE) .

     The tabulated data from the five automated long-term ground
     measurement stations tcf. 79-280 (Lovelock and Simmonds,
     p. 19)  and 79-279 and 79-263  (Rasmussen, p. 21)] are being
     completed, archived, checked statistically to aid in evaluat-
     ing the performance of the network, and analyzed at least
     annually for trends and approximate global concentrations .
     Where possible, lifetime estimates will be calculated along
     with their confidence ranges.


                                K-17

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

The 8-box tropospheric model  (see Cunnold, et al., 78-252,
p. 38) has been utilized to calculate that the average trend
for CFC 11 from the five monitoring stations should be repre-
sentative of the global trend with an accuracy of at least
0.5%/yr.  The 8-box model will be used to prepare other esti-
mates for the sensitivity of the ALE.  Recommendations for
calibration and data reporting in ALE have been made.

Measurement precision is good for the data processed up to
June 1980.  The measurement time sequence is not yet sufficient
for accurate lifetime calculations.  Preliminary indications
are that CFC 11 may have a lifetime about half that expected
from stratospheric photolysis alone, but with 2 a error  limits
of 7 years to infinity.  Seasonal variations that correlate well
with air motions between the hemispheres are observed at all
stations.

     Dr. R. J. DONOVAN — University of Edinburgh — 79-286.
     Reaction of CIO with OH:  A Potential Sink for C10X.
                                                        i
A laboratory investigation, using flash photolysis, will be made
of the CIO/OH reaction.  Temperature and pressure dependence
and the nature of the reaction products will be determined to
elucidate further the mechanism of the reaction.

      Dr. M.  KAUFMAN — Emory University — 76-126, 77-197.
      Studies of Compounds of Sulfur, Oxygen, and Chlorine
      (completed).

 The three body recombination rate constant for Cl and S02 at
 2958K has been found to be 1.3 x 10~33 cm6molec~2s~1 with Ar,
 2.3 x ID'33  cm^molec~2s~l with N2, and 19 x 10~33 cm6molec~2g-l
 with S02.  At 281°K the first and third values become 2.9 x
 10~33 and 20 x 10~33, respectively.  Ultraviolet cross sections
 of S02C12 and HOS02C1  have been determined, and the incorpora-
 tion of  36cl into sulfate-type aerosol particles has been
 studied.  Surface effects appear to have dominated the latter
 experiment.

 When OCS is  added to a Cl/Cl2/Ar mixture at room temperature,
 SCI"1" and SC1$ ions are detected mass spectrometrically.   The
 rate constant for the reaction Cl 4- OCS -»• SCI + CO is less
 than 10~16 cm3molec~1s~1 at 296°K.

      Dr. F.  KORTE — Technical University of Munich —
      77-194.  Photodegradation of Chlorofluoromethanes
      in the  Troposphere (completed).

 The photodegradation of CFC 11 and CFC 12 on silica gel and
 on Mecca sand was studied with the aid of 14C-labelled com-
 pounds.  Whereas in the dark no change was determined with
 silica gel,  there was significant decomposition on the sand
 with formation of 14C02 (up to 50%) .  Irradiation with UV
                            K-18

-------
                   Table  3  (continued)

 U>290 nm)  led  to  1-5%  decomposition of the  CPCs  on silica
 gel  also with formation of  ^CC^.   Irradiation with UV was
 not  observed  to increase  the  decomposition rate on sand.
 The  results suggest  that  decomposition takes place at active
 sites on the  surface.

     Dr. M. J.  KURYLO —  National  Bureau of  Standards —
     78-233.  Rates  of  Reaction of Cl Atoms  with  the Primary
     Products of Alkane Photooxidation (completed).

 See  Table  3,  Section A  (p.  14).

     Dr. J. E.  LOVELOCK —  University of Reading  — 75-67,
     77-144.  Unidentified  Factors in the Fluorocarbon-Ozone
     Problem  (completed).

 Coarse Saharan  surface  dust showed an unusual degree of re-
 tention for CFC 11 and  CC14.   Investigations were made on the
 relationship ,between photochemically produced atmospheric
 peroxy compounds (e.g., peroxyacetyl nitrate)  and the inci-
 dence of skin carcinoma.

Observations  on  dissolved gases  in the  ocean were made  during
the April 1977 voyage of RRS Challenger.   Concentrations of
N2O  in ocean  and atmosphere confirmed earlier  estimates of
N20  flux from the  ocean.

     Dr. J. E. LOVELOCK and P. G.  SIMMONDS —  Private  —
     77-193,  78-243, 79-280, 80-324.  Operation of Stations in
     Adrigole and  Barbados  for the Atmospheric Lifetime
     Experiment.

Automated long-term  ground measurement  stations are  being
operated in Adrigole (continuing the  data  base already  col-
lected there) and  in Barbados.   Hewlett-Packard electron-
capture gas chromatographs  are being  used  to  collect data
for CFCs 11,  12, and 113, CH3CC13,  CC14,  and N20, which are
processed,  tabulated, and forwarded to  CAP Associates  for
analysis.

Both stations are  operating well with data being processed
from March  3, 1978 (Adrigole) and  July  12, 1978 (Barbados).
Battery back-up  protection  has been installed  at both  stations
to minimize problems  from power interruptions.  Several de-
tails that are important to the continuous operation of
remote stations  have  been identified, and maintenance pro-
cedures are being modified appropriately.  Adrigole data are
affected more by air pollution events than the other remote
stations,  and techniques to handle  such events are being
developed.   Barbados  data show the  expected small variability.
                            K-19

-------
                     Table 3 (continued)
      Dr.  L.  R.  MARTIN - Aerospace Corp.  — 75-81, 75-8111.
      Laboratory Investigation of the Heterogeneous Inter-
      action  of  Cl and CIO with H2S04 (completed).

 A flowing afterglow apparatus was used to measure the rate of
 the  heterogeneous reactions of Cl and CIO with sulfuric acid,
 simulating the  stratospheric aerosol.  The reaction rate of
 Cl is too slow  for its reaction to constitute a significant
 sink, although  rates were markedly increased by the presence
 of certain metal salts in the sulfuric acid.  Even at strato-
 spheric temperatures the HC1 formed goes into the vapor phase.
 The   for CIO on H2S04/H20 substrates is 1 x 10~3 at room
 temperature.  These, the first examples  of heterogeneous
 reactions with  stratospheric aerosol, are not in any models.

      Dr.  V. A.  MOHNEN — State University of New  York,  Albany
      —  75-64.   Ion Molecule Reactions Involving  Fluoro-
      carbons  (completed).

 Ion  molecule  reactions between the equilibrium ion distribu-
 tion formed in  pure air-like gas  mixtures and CFC 12  were
 studied.   From  these investigations it was concluded  that:
 (1)  stable CFC  12 attachments to  ions ("cluster formation")
 of the form H+-(H20)n, 02--(H20)n, cb3-.(H20)n, and C04~'
 (H20)n do not occur; (2)  dissociative charge transfer reac-
 tions between H+-(H20)n and CFC 12 are not observed for all
 n >2;  (3)  approximate rate constants for dissociative charge
 transfer reactions between CFC 12 and 05~-H20 and CFC 12 and
 C03~ are 3 x  10~12 cm3s~1 and <2  x KT13^cm3s~1, respectively;
 (4)  knowledge of time integrated  rate constants for atmos-
 pheric negative ions is necessary before the importance of
 ion  reactions with CFCs can be estimated, but the likelihood
 of substantial  importance is small.

      Dr.  L. F.  PHILLIPS — University of Canterbury (NZ)  —
      78-241.  Determination of Atomic Oxygen Yields in  the
      Photolysis of HOC1 and C100   (completed).

The photolysis was  studied by  looking for prompt 0 atoms
by observation of resonance  fluorescence on a nanosecond time
scale.  Detection limits for ground-state oxygen atoms pro-
duced by photolysis of N02 were established.

Gaseous mixtures  containing  EOC1 were photolyaed with UV radia-
tion at 237 nm from a nitrogen laser to determine whether the
SOCl -»• HCl + 0 reaction path occurred.  Because the signal to
noise ratio was  too  low, attempts  to measure oxygen atoms by
resonance fluorescence gave  inconclusive  results.   Recommenda-
tions were made  for improving  the  sensitivity of the detection
method in future  studies.
                            K-20

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)


     Dr. J. N. PITTS, JR. — University of California at
     Riverside — 75-12.  Monitoring and Atmospheric Reac-
     tions of Fluorocarbons  (completed).

CFCs 11 and 12 are photochemically stable in simulated sun-
light, even when irradiated  for several weeks.  Plant tissues
did not absorb measurable quantities of CFCs 11, 12, or 22,
and no adverse effects could be measured.  CFCs penetrate into
the soil atmosphere, and concentrations change in direct
relationship with changes in concentration in the atmosphere
above ground.

     Dr. R. A. RASMUSSEN — Washington State University —
     75-71.  Measurement of Fluorocarbon Content of "Antique"
     Air Samples (completed).

A sensitive method for the determination of low parts per
trillion analysis of CFCs 11 and 12 in small-volume air
samples in containers was developed and applied to a wide
variety of vessels believed to contain antique air.  All
samples analyzed showed varying levels of CFCs.  Contamina-
tion during handling is not a problem, so that either CFCs
were present in nature prior to 1930 or the samples were con-
taminated by leakage during storage.

     Dr. R. A. RASMUSSEN — Rasmussen Associates — 75-84.
     Collection and Analysis of Antarctic Ice Cores (com-
     pleted) .


 The concentration of halocarbons in air obtained from Antarctic
 snow shows no enrichment in samples obtained from the Ross ice
 shelf  (mainly -30°F), whereas there is enrichment in samples
 obtained from the South Pole (-50 to -60°F).

      Dr. R. A. RASMUSSEN — Private — 76-140.  Lower Strato-
      spheric Measurement of Non-methane Hydrocarbons (completed)

 Ethane, ethylene, and acetylene are  found in the upper tropo-
 sphere and lower stratosphere at concentrations of 40-820 ppt.
 Total  concentrations of the three species range from 1085 ppt
 (NH troposphere) to 323 ppt  (SH stratosphere).

     Dr. R. A. RASMUSSEN — Oregon Graduate Center —
     77-201, 78-248, 78-263, 79-279, 80-325.  Operation of
     Stations in American Samoa, Cape Meares, Oregon, and
     Tasmania for the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment.

Automated long-term ground measurement stations are being oper-
ated in American Samoa and Tasmania as detailed in 77-193
(Lovelock and Simmonds, p. 19).  Data have been processed from
May, 1978, (Tasmania) and June, 1978,  (American Samoa) up to
June, 1980.
                            K-21

-------
                        Table 3 (continued)

    The fifth ALE station at Cape Meares, Oregon, became opera-
    tional early in 1980 and is now contributing measurement data
    routinely to the ALE network.

         Dr. R. A. RASMUSSEN — Oregon Graduate Center —
         77-215.  Kilauea Volcanic Emissions — Halocarbon
         Measurements  (completed)  .

    Electron capture gas chromatograph analyses were made on
    fumerolic emissions from two vents on Kilauea at the site
    of the September,  1977 lava flow.  Some 20 halocarbons were
    observed and compared with local control samples.  CFCs 11
    and 12, CC14, and  0130:13 were not significantly different
    from controls.  Peaks tentatively identified as ^0 and
    methyl halides showed elevated concentrations versus controls,
    The presence of ^0 was confirmed by GC-MS.
         Dr. C. SANDORFY — University of Montreal — 73-2.
         Spectroscopy and Photochemical Changes of Fluoro-
         carbons  (completed) .

    The vacuum ultraviolet and photoelectron spectra of CFCs were
    measured.  The photochemical vulnerability of these molecules
    was predicted from their spectra.
         R. E. SHAMEL — A. D. Little, Inc. — 79-275.  Analysis
         of Release of FC-11  from Rigid Plastic Foam Products in
         the U. S.  (completed).

    The lifetime for CFC-11 emissions from rigid foam is much longer
    than previously assumed and will not be a problem for the ALE
    lifetime calculations.

         Drs. P. G. SIMMONDS  and J. E. LOVELOCK — Private —
         79-269.  Determination of Tropospheric Halocarbons
         and Their Relative Importance.

    See Table 3, Section C (p. 27).
C.  Laboratory Studies Related to Potential Atmospheric Measure-
    ments

         Dr. J. W. BIRKS; Drs. C. J. HOWARD and F. C. FEHSENFELD
         — University of Colorado; National Oceanic and Atmos-
         pheric Administration, Boulder — 77-222.  Development
         of a Technique for Measuring the Total Chlorine Content
         in Air.

    The goal of this project is to develop an analytical instru-
    ment for measuring the total chlorine content of whole air.
    In principle a gas stream will be passed through a discharge
    plasma, and chlorine emission lines in the vacuum UV region

                                 K-22

-------
                     Table  3  (continued)

will be used  to  determine  chlorine  content.  The  equipment
consists of a UV monochromator,  discharge  source,  and  resonance
fluorescence  detector.

The chlorine  signal  response  has been  investigated for a  number
of different  chlorine-containing compounds,  and the  linearity
of the total  chlorine signal  is  under  investigation.


     Dr. H. L. BUIJS — Bomem, Inc.  — 75-90.  Construction
     of a Fourier  Transform Spectrometer  (completed).

A spectrometer with  a projected  resolution of  0.02 cm~l was
constructed for  use  in the simultaneous determination  of
C10N02 and either  HC1 or HF,  or  of  HC1 and HF.  See  Table 3,
Section D (p.  31).

     Dr. H. L. BUIJS — Bomera, Inc.  — 77-168.  Measurement
     of Halogen  Compounds  for Determination  of Total Chlorine
     and Total Fluorine in the Stratosphere  Using Long-Path
     Inteferometric  Spectroscopy   (completed).


A library study  has  shown that there are very  few  published
experimental data  of sufficient resolution and quality  for
the interpretation of solar IR spectra.

     Dr. H.  L. BUIJS — Bomem, Inc. — 77-221.  Measurement
     of Infrared Spectra of Selected Stable Molecules.

Fourier transform  infrared spectra of  methyl chloride  in  the
3.3 um region  and  of phosgene, carbonyl chlorofluoride, and
carbonyl fluoride  in the 1.3  ym to 5.6 ym region have been
recorded at 0.01 cm~l resolution both  at room  temperature and
at stratospheric temperature  (^240°K).  The  low-resolution
spectrum of methyl chloroform from about 2.1  ym to  5.6 ym
showed no useful features for detection of this species in the
atmosphere.

      Dr. J. A. COXON —  Dalhousie  University —  78-255, 80-315.
      The A2IIj_ "-X2!^  Band System of CIO:  Absolute Absorption
      Cross  Sections  at High  Resolution for Bands  of Stratos-
      pheric Interest.

Equipment and facilities  for  spectroscopic work on the CIO
radical have  been  assembled.   CIO  has  been generated in a
fast  flow system from the  reaction Cl  + OC10 -»• 2C10.  Both
35C10  and 37do  will be  investigated,  particularly at  X>290  nm.
Preliminary absorption traces of the A2IIi-X2IIi band  system of
CIO have now  been  recorded at high  resolution. Several bands,
11-0 to 4-0 in the ^3/2 subsystem,  have been  identified.  The
absorption intensity of these bands  is high.   Even from this
preliminary work it  is possible  to  establish an important new
                             K-23

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

result:  the width of individual lines in a vibrational band
appears to be greater than previous estimates made from photo-
graphic plates.  Systematic measurements of CIO absorption
intensities  (especially for the bands of stratospheric inter-
est)  and the calculation of absolute absorption cross sections
are in progress.  These data would assist continuous monitoring
of CIO from high altitude platforms.


      Dr.  D.  D.  DAVIS  — University  of Maryland  —  74-10.
      Laboratory Determination  of  the  Sensitivity of  Laser-
      Induced Fluorescence  for  the Detection  of  CIO under
      Atmospheric Conditions  (completed).

Ground-state stationary CIO  concentrations of about  1012
cm~3  were scanned  at  several electronic  absorption wave-
length  regions  with a tunable  UV  laser.  Laser-induced
fluorescence proved to be  unusable  for measuring CIO.

      Dr.  D.  D.  DAVIS  —University  of Maryland/Georgia
      Institute  of  Technology — 75-73.   Laboratory Measure-
      ment of Spectroscopic Absorption Cross  Sections of
      CIO  (completed).

A frequency  doubled tunable  dye laser with a band  width of
0.0015  nm was used to measure  the absorption cross sections
of  CIO  as  a  function  of wave length for  the  A^Hj/2 9-0
band.   There  was overall lack  of resolution  in  the data,
and an  unassigned  peak was observed at 283.06 nm.  Simulated
spectra indicated  that a baseline resolved spectrum  is not
feasible,  that  the unassigned  peak could be  a 3^C10  absorp-
tion, and that  the 35C10 line  width is somewhat wider  than
reported  by  Coxon  and Ramsay.  The real  cross section
attributable  to 35C10 at 282.94 nm  (the  largest peak in the
spectrum)  is  calculated to be  CJR19>5  = 1.04  x 10~16  cm2.

      Dr.  D.  D.  DAVIS  — University of Maryland/Georgia
      Institute  of  Technology — 75-87.  Development  of
      Instrument for Stratospheric OH  Measurement by  Laser-
      Induced  Fluorescence  (completed).

A miniaturized  dye laser module for balloon  flights  has been
built and tested.

      Dr.  A. E.  J.  EGGLETON —  Atomic  Energy  Research Estab-
      lishment,  Harwell — 76-116.  Total Chlorine Measure-
      ments in the  Troposphere  and Stratosphere  (completed).

The feasibility of measuring total chlorine  and fluorine  in
the atmosphere  by  neutron activation  and y photon  activation,
respectively, after collection of reactive species and par-
ticulate  material  on  filters and collection  of gaseous
compounds on activated charcoal was studied.  The  proposed
                             K-24

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

 method proved unsuitable for the determination of total
 chlorine and fluorine contained in unreactive organic com-
 pounds due to a combination of insufficiently low halogen
 blank values in the best activated charcoal prepared and to
 inadequate adsorptive capacity for the more volatile organic
 compounds .


     Dr. C. J. HOWARD — National Oceanic and Atmospheric
     Administration, Boulder — 75-47.  Laboratory Deter-
     mination of the Feasibility of Laser Magnetic Resonance
     for CIO Detection and Reaction Studies  (completed) .

It has been demonstrated that CIO can be detected by laser
magnetic resonance with a sensitivity of about 10^-0 molec
cm~3.  Current maximum model predictions are about 10 8
molec cm~3, and measurements have approached 10^ molec cm" 3
at 30 km.


     Dr. C. J. HOWARD — National Oceanic and Atmospheric
     Administration, Boulder — 80-299.  Infrared Spectro-
     scopy of Atmospheric Species .

This measurement program is to provide accurately calibrated
high-resolution infrared spectra of shorter  lived atmospheric
species for the identification and quantification of these
constituents in the stratosphere.  A Fourier transform  infrared
spectrometer is to be obtained.  The first species to be studied
is peroxynitric acid.   (This project is dependent on the ac-
quisition of appropriate cofunding.)


     Dr. H. D. KNAUTH — University of Kiel  — 77-171.
     Laboratory Study of the UV and IR Spectra of HOC1 ,
     HOON02/ and HC104 in the Temperature Range of the
     Stratosphere  (completed) .

It was not possible to obtain partial pressures of HO2N02
greater than 0.1 torr in the N205/H202 system in Pyrex
vessels.  The spectrum for gaseous HOC1 was  derived  from
extinction measurements on the C12/H20 system at 333°C
for different values of the equilibrium constant for the
reaction H20 + C^O ->• 2HOC1.  The results are not in com-
plete agreement with those of Timmons  (76-129, p. 28),  so
additional work on the absorption centered around 300 nm
is required.

     Dr. H. D. KNAUTH — University of Kiel  — 77-224.
     Laboratory Study for Determination of the Equilibrium
     Constant of the Reaction C^O + H2O •*• 2HOC1 and the
     UV Spectrum of HOC1 (completed) .
The gas phase system C^O + H20 = 2HOC1 has been investi-
gated by UV from 200 to 500 nm at 333°K.  Isobestic points
were found at 214, 233, 335, and 380 nm.  The equilibrium

                            K-25

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

constant 0.132 ± 0.008 and HOC1 cross  sections were
derived from absorbance measurements of the mixtures  at
equilibrium.  The resulting HOC1 spectrum shows absorption
bands with peaks at 240 and  310 nm.  Very clean C120/H20/
HOC1 mixtures proved to be remarkably  stable.  Thermal
decomposition produced C12 with intermediate  formation of
C102.  The absorption cross sections of C120, C102, and
C12 were determined separately at  333°K.

     Dr. J. E. LOVELOCK — Private —  76-120.  The Electron
     Capture Detector as a Reference Standard for Analysis
     of Atmospheric Halocarbons (completed).

A theoretical model of the operation of the electron  capture
detector was developed.  Application to the procedure used
at the Adrigole station and on the RV  Shackleton (1971-2)
indicate that measurements at these bases are within  3% of
theoretical predictions for CCl^ and CFC 11.  This evaluation
was extended to CH3CC13 measurements.


     Dr. J. E. LOVELOCK — Private —  78-226, 78-264,  80-293.
     Development of Primary Fluorocarbon Standards.

An exponential dilution technique, using a converted barn as
the dilution chamber, has been developed to provide primary
standards for halocarbon concentration measurements.

During  what had been expected to be the final phase  of measure-
ments on CFC-11 and CFC-12, measurements outside the  previously
accepted error limits were obtained.   A review of the  experimental
procedures to identify hitherto undetected sources of system-
atic error has been made.   None  was  found with the possible
exception of water contamination of fluorocarbon samples during
transfer.   Final measurements are now  expected to be  completed
before the end of the year.

      Dr.  K. MOE —-  Private ~  78-235.  Effect of Aerosol
      Scattering on  Ozone Measurements  with the Dobson
      Spectrophotometer  (completed).

The  NCAR  UV double  monochromator  (UVDM) and associated com-
puter  programs have been shown to  be capable of ozone
measurements  of hitherto unobtainable  accuracy, while
simultaneously measuring aerosol optical depth as a func-
tion of wavelength  in the  region of strong ozone absorption.
An ozone  value of 0.328 +  0.006 cm was obtained at 10:00 h
MST  for June  8, 1978 compared with a corrected Dobson measure-
ment of 0.340 cm at 12:05  h  MST.

The  increasing number of UVDMs being deployed could provide
accurate  ozone data to resolve the discrepancy between pre-
dictions  of ozone decrease from photochemical models  and
Dobson measurements, which show no decrease or increase.
                           K-26

-------
                    Table  3  (continued)

      Dr. D. G. MURCRAY — University of Denver ~ 75-92,
      77-152,  78-265.  Laboratory Measurement of High
      Resolution Infrared  Spectra of Chlorine-Containing
      Molecules of Stratospheric Interest.

 Laboratory measurements of the high resolution infrared
 spectra of chlorine-containing molecules are being made.
 Statistical-band-model analyses and integrated intensity
 measurements  for the 10.8 ym band of CFC 12 and 11.8 ym
 band of CFC 11 have been published.  The spectrum of H202
 has been measured.  A compendium of laboratory IR spectra
 (resolution 0.04-0.06 cm~l) has been prepared.  A list of
 compounds measured as well as detailed spectra are available
 to investigators upon request  to CMA, attention J. C. Van
 Horn.

     Dr. R. W. NICHOLLS — York University — 75-11 and
     75-11-11.  Experimental and Theoretical Studies on
     the UV Spectrum of CIO with Stratospheric Applications.

Absolute absorption coefficients and cross sections have been
measured for all bands and the photodissociation continuum of
the V"=0 progression for CIO.  The very complicated emission
spectrum that has been excited over the wavelength range
2500-4500 & in discharges through C1O2 and C^O is currently
undergoing measurement, identification, and analysis.  Com-
puter-based synthetic spectra of various CIO bands have been
calculated.  Current work, which emphasizes the (2,0), (3,0),
and (4,0) bands, should be of immediate diagnostic applica-
tion to ground-based and balloon-based stratospheric spec-
troscopic observations.

     Dr. R. W. NICHOLLS — York University ~ 75-30b.
     Laboratory Studies of the Infrared Vibration-Rotation
     Spectrum of CIO (completed).

Work in this area was suspended to allow greater effort in
the UV measurements (75-11).

     Dr. R. A. RASMUSSEN — Private — 76-142, 78-247.
     Interlaboratory Comparison of Fluorocarbon Measure-
     ments  (completed) .

A  second round of  identical  samples of  rural  air has been
circulated  blind to participating  laboratories  for analysis
for CFCs 11 and 12, CHC13,  CH3CC13, CC14, and N20.  Overall
the results obtained  showed a spread  similar  to that ob-
tained  in  the  1976 NASA workshop.   However/as in 1976, there
was excellent  agreement between  Rasmussen and Lovelock, who
use two different  methods  of calibration.   A  third round of
                           K-27

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

samples was analyzed by 19 laboratories.  Good agreement
(±5%) was obtained by the S  laboratories using common primary
standards, but the other 14  laboratories showed much larger
variations, with mean values considerably lower than those of
the 5 laboratories.


     Drs. P. G. SIMMONDS and J. E. LOVELOCK — Private —
     79-269.  Determination of Tropospheric Halocarbons
     and Their Relative Importance.

New methods are to be sought for the improved measurement of
halocarbons that are not presently determined with sufficient
sensitivity by EC/GC.  Techniques will evaluate enhancement
of EC sensitivity by cryotrapping, selective adsorbents, the
use of "doped" carrier gas, and chemical conversion.  The
first priority is to improve routine monitoring of CH3C1.

New techniques such as the electrolytic conductivity detector
(which could also provide the basis of a total chlorine monitor)
and the photoionization detector will also be evaluated.  It
is hoped that these new techniques will permit future routine
monitoring of a wider range of both natural and anthropogenic
halocarbons.


Laboratory development experiments on the doping and cryogenic/
adsorbent techniques for methyl chloride continue to make good
progress.  Attempts to increase detection sensitivity by chem-
ical conversion of methyl chloride to methyl iodide have so far
proved unsuccessful.  A preliminary evaluation of the photo-
ionization detector, using a borrowed instrument, showed this
method of detection to be unpromising, and a new instrument will
therefore not be purchased.

     Dr. R. K. SKOGERBOE — Colorado State University —
     77-206.  Development of a Measurement System for the
     Determination of Total Chlorine in Air  (completed).

The technique involves two flame reactions.  The first, in a
H2~rich flame, forms HCl, which is treated with indium to yield
InCl.  The InCl is then excited in an air-rich flame and detected
photometrically.  Blind analyses of calibration samples proved
that the sensitivity of the technique was not sufficient to be
of value for stratospheric measurements.  However, it is hoped
that the system can be put to use in tropospheric monitoring.

      Dr.  D.  H.  STEDMAN  —  University  of  Michigan  —  74-7.
      Atmospheric  Determination  of  CIO Concentration:   A
      Feasibility  Study  (completed).

Laboratory studies  have  demonstrated  the feasibility for
detecting stratospheric  CIO  by  chemical  conversion to  Cl
 (by  reaction with NO) accompanied  by  vacuum  ultraviolet
resonance fluorescence.   In-flight use of this  technique
is being supported  by NASA.

                             K-20

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)


      Dr. D. H. STEDMAN — University of Michigan - 76-132.
      Absolute Calibration of Fluorocarbon Measurements
      (completed).

 A feed-back flow system for the calibration of CFC samples
 has been built.

      Dr. D. H. STEDMAN — University of Michigan — 77-151.
      Generation and Exchange of Calibrated Samples of
      Fluorocarbons (completed).

 Work on this project was stopped because of feasibility
 problems.


     Dr. R. B. TIMMONS ~ Catholic University —  76-129.
     Photochemical  and Chemical Kinetics Measurements of
     Stratospheric  Importance with Respect  to the Fluoro-
     carbon Issue  (completed).

HOC1 is  a possible  stratospheric sink the magnitude of which
would depend on the absorption cross section.  Earlier
spectral measurements were inaccurate.  Pure HOC1 cannot be
prepared, for  an equilibrium mixture of C^O and HOC1 exists,
The equilibrium constant  for this reaction  is Kp = 0.8.
This value and the UV absorption cross sections of C^O have
been used to determine the UV absorption cross sections of
HOC1 between 200-330 nm.  The 230-240 nm peak was lower than
previously measured, and no peak was found  at 320 nm.

     Dr. R. B. TIMMONS — University of Texas, Arlington —
     77-214, 78-258.  Photochemical and Chemical Kinetics
     Measurements of Stratospheric Importance with Respect
     to the Fluorocarbon Issue.

The UV absorption cross sections of HOC1 between 200-330 nm
over longer pathlengths are being determined under condi-
tions such that interference by C120 is minimal, i.e., low
C120 concentration and excess H20.  An induction period for
the increase in UV absorption at 320 nm is observed, sug-
gesting that the 320 nm absorption may be due to more than
one species.

The equilibrium constant for the C120 +• H20 reaction appears
to be essentially temperature independent over the tempera-
ture range 25  to 57°C.

Work is in progress using a quadrupole mass spectrometer
toward the direct determination of the concentration of
HOC1 and any other interfering species, thus making the
measurement of the UV absorption cross section more accurate.
                            K-29

-------
                         Table 3  (continued}

          Dr. R. J. SAYKALLY — University of California,
          Berkeley — 80-300.  Near- and Far-Infrared Spectro-
          scopy.

     This project seeks to develop far-infrared laser electric
     resonance as a technique for detection and measurement of
     transient species, with parallel work- in tunable F-center
     laser spectroscopy.  Species chosen for the studies are
     HOCl, BOy, OH, and CH^O.  The methods have potential appli-
     cations in both laboratory kinetics and stratospheric measure-
     ments.

          Drs. W. A. TRAUB and K. V. CHANCE — Smithsonian
          Astrophysical Observatory at Harvard University
          — 80-318.  Far-Infrared Laboratory Spectroscopy
          of Halogen-Containing Molecules.

     Laboratory spectra of SCI, HOCl, and CION02 will be studied at
     a resolution of about 0.03 cm~* in the region 70 to 250 cm~l,
     in order to establish the positions,~ strengths,  and pressure
     broadening effects of air on the lines and bands.  This work
     is done in support of an ongoing balloon measurement program.

D.   Tropospheric and Stratospheric Measurements

          Dr. J. E. BECKMAN — Queen Mary College, London —
          79-282.  Airborne Millimeter-Wave Determination of
          CIO.

     Airborne observations of CIO using a 241 GHz receiver will be
     made.  This equipment will be flown "piggyback"  on a NASA
     aircraft (C141) flight scheduled for late October 1980.

          Drs. A. BONETTI and B. CARLI; Dr. J. E. HARRIES ~
          University of Florence, Consiglio Nazionale delle
          Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca sulle Onde Elettro-
          magnetiche, Italy; National Physical Laboratory,
          U. K. — 76-137, 80-297.  Submillimeter-Infrared
          Balloon Experiment.

     Vertical distributions and diurnal variability of H20, 03,
     N02, HN03, HC1, CFCs 11 and 12, CIO, C10N02, and other
     molecules are being determined using the 9 to 15 micron infra-
     red region and submillimeter wavelengths from 200 to 1000
     microns.  Data from the October 1978 flight have been reduced
     for CFCs 11 and 12, 03, and HN03-

     Laboratory measurements of the rotational spectra of molecular
     species relevant to stratospheric chemistry and  photochemistry
     will be carried out in the spectral interval 5 to 80 cm~l with
     possible extension to 120 cm-1 with a resolution of 0.0023 cm~l
     up to 40 cm-1 and with a resolving power of 1,210^ beyond 40 cm-1,
     The spectra will be produced through the same Submillimeter
     Polarising Interferometer employed in the stratospheric flights.


                                  K-30

-------
                     Table 3 (continued)

      Dr.  F.  BRUNER — Urbino University  — 78-256.   Deter-
      mination of F-21 and Other Halocarbons in the  Tropos-
      phere (completed).

 Two analytical methods  for the quantitative determination of
 atmospheric  CFC-21 at 1-50 ppt concentration have been set up
 based on  GC  separation followed,  respectively, by EC and MS.
 In  both methods the permeation tube technique has been adopted
 as  the primary quantitative standard.

 A series  of  samples have been collected  from rural  and indus-
 trial areas  in Italy and over the Red  Sea and the Indian Ocean.
 Concentrations of CFC-21 ranged from a few ppt to as great as
 40-50 ppt.
     Dr. H. L. BUIJS - Bomem, Inc. — 75-90, 75-98.  Measure-
     ment of HC1 and HF in the Stratosphere by Fourier
     Transform Spectroscopy  (completed).

Balloon flights to Alaska (May 1976) and New Mexico  (September
1976 and March 1977) have provided profiles for HF and HC1
concentrations.  The HC1 profile  (volume mixing ratio), but
not the HF profile, appears to show a maximum at 23-25 km,
where the volume mixing ratios are 8 x 10~10 (HCl) and 10~10
(HF).  The HCl value is similar to values obtained by other
investigators.

Upper limits on the concentrations of C2Hg and CH3C1 are < 0.6
x 10~9 and £ 1 x 10~9  (mole fraction), respectively.

See Table 3, Section C (p. 23 ).

     Dr. H. L. BUIJS — Bomem, Inc. — 77-156.  Operational
     Costing for Flights Planned  in 1977.


HCl and HF profiles were recorded by infrared techniques from
a balloon launched  in  New Mexico  on October 27. 1978.  The
HCl mixing ratio increased from about 2 x 10~1" at 20 km to
about 1 x 10~9 at 35 km.  Similar values for HF are  about 3 x
10-11 and 3 x 10~10, respectively.  The shape of the curve of
HF/HCl vs. altitude is in reasonable agreement with  that of
Farmer and Raper  (1977) over the  altitude interval 17-27 km
but does not agree with the profile calculated from models by
Sze  (1978).

Additional balloon  flights are planned for simultaneous measure-
ment of HCl, HF, and/or ClON02.
                             K-31

-------
                   Table 3 (continued)

     Dr. D. H. EHHALT — Nuclear Research Establishment
     Juelich — 76-145.  Electron Spin Resonance Detection
     of Stratospheric Radicals (completed).

Under a program supported by the German Government's Depart-
ment of Research and Technology a cryogenic sample was
collected at 30.5 km at 1600-1700 hr (conditions of relatively
low radical concentration) during Murcray's March 1977 balloon
flight.  The frozen sample was analyzed by ESR, showing the
following concentrations.  N02: 3.5 x 108; H02: 8.5 x 10°
molec cm"3; CIO: not detected.

     Dr. P. A. EKSTROM ~ Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific
     Northwest Laboratories — 75-27.  Ground-Based Millimeter-
     Wavelength Observations of Stratospheric CIO (completed).

About 500,000 data points were obtained in the microwave
spectra near 93 GHz with the Kitt Peak radiotelescope.  Ex-
cessive noise made interpretation difficult, but base-line
corrected spectra suggested an upper limit on CIO of one
hundred times model predictions.


     Dr. A. GIRARD — Office National d1Etudes et de
     Recherches Aerospatiales, France — 75-88.  Measure-
     ment of HC1, HF, CIO, etc.,  in the Stratosphere by
     High Resolution Infrared Spectroscopy (completed).

Vertical profiles of HC1, NO2, H20, and CH4 between 26 and
35 km have been deduced from two balloon-borne grating
spectrometer experiments.  There is a hint of a decrease
in HC1 mixing ratio at the upper limit of the October 1977
experiment.  Laboratory infrared spectra have been obtained
for C1N03, N02, HN03, and HCHO.  The method of infrared
limb sun pointing was found to be inadequate for the detec-
tion of CIO in the atmosphere.
      Drs. A. GOLDMAN  and A.  BARBE  — University of Denver;
      University  of  Reims,  France — 80-322.  Collaborative
      Studies on  Atmospheric  Spectroscopy.
Atmospheric  species  such  as  03,  3Cl, HF, NO 2, NO, N 20 ,
OCS,  etc., are  to  be identified  and quantified by their infra-
red  absorption  spectra.   The work will  cover a wide range of
laboratory,  ground-based,  and theoretical studies and utilize
the  complementary  skills  and established collaboration between
Denver  and Reims.
                            K-32

-------
                     Table  3  (continued)

     Dr.  P. JOUVE  ~ University of Reims, France —  79-290.
     Measurement of  the Vertical Distribution of HC1, 03, and
     HCHO and  the  Ratio HF/HCl.

 Ground-baaed measurements  of HCl, HF>  and other important species
 will be made using high resolution infrared  spectroscopy.   These
 measurements will  be made  during 1981  from an observatory in
 Haute Province, France, by a team from Jouve's group  at  the ONES
 Laboratory  located in  Reims.

     Dr.  J. E. LOVELOCK — University  of Reading, Private
     — 73-1,  74-3,  75-67, 77-144.  Fluorocarbons in  the
     Environment (completed).

 The electron capture gas chromatograph (ECGC) has been
 developed and  applied  to the measurement of  several halocar-
 bons in the lower  stratosphere and troposphere, particularly
 over Europe and the  Atlantic Ocean.  In 1976 levels of CFC
 11 were about  130  ppt  (U. K.) and 80 ppt (Southern Hemi-
 sphere) .  CHoCl, with  the  ocean and smouldering vegetation
 as identified  sources, was at about 10~9 v/v in the Northern
 Hemisphere but was found to be higher  over the southern
 African continent  (2.2 x 10~9 v/v in Kenya)   (cf. Rasmussen,
 77-181,  p.  35)  •  CC14  and CH3(^13 were also  unexpectedly
 high.  Portable monitoring equipment has been provided and
 put to use in  South  Africa and Australia.  The levels of
 CH3CC13 found  in the Southern Hemisphere (50 ppt)  appeared
 higher than expected from  release and  tropospheric lifetime
 estimates.  Northern Hemisphere values were  about 100 ppt.

 Measurements of CFC  11 in  the atmosphere and ocean were made •
 during the April 1977  voyage of RRS Challenger in the north-'
 east Atlantic Ocean.    Average air concentrations of 155 ppt
were observed  for  CFC  11,  and it was present at saturation
 quantities down to depths of 500 m.

 See Rasmussen  76-142,  p. 27.

     Dr.  D. G. MURCRAY —  University of Denver — 75-13,
     76-101, 76-135, 77-166.  The Measurement of the
     Stratospheric Distribution of Fluorocarbons and
     Other  Constituents of Interest in the Possible
     Effect of Chlorine Pollutants on  the Ozone Layer.

 Measurement of stratospheric distribution by balloon-borne,
 high-resolution, infrared  absorption measurement at  large
 solar zenith angles  has been achieved  using  a specially
 constructed grating  spectrometer.  The distributions  for
 CFCs 11 and 12 and CC14 obtained showed a concentration
 increase  of about  2.5, with  a rather wide range of uncer-
 tainty, from 1968  to 1975  for CFCs 11  and 12.  Subsequent
 flights also yielded HC1  and HN03 profiles.  A preliminary
 value of  ^2 ppbv for the  concentration of ClONO^ at  26 km
 has been  calculated.  The  upper limit  for H202 is 1  ppbv
 at 20 km.


                            K-33

-------
                     Table 3 (continued)


An October  1978 balloon  flight  with an interferometer system
instead of  a  grating system was successful  and recorded
through sunset with  the  last record obtained at solar zenith
angle  >95°.   A strong absorption at 1283  cm'1 is due  to CF4
with an estimated mixing ratio  of 75 pptv at 25 km.   The
C10N02 mixing ratio  is 0.8  pptv from 24 km  to 32 km,  then
falling to  0.4 ppbv  at 33.5 km.  Several  features coincide
with some of  the HOC1 lines, but the agreement appears
fortuitous, and no features can be assigned with certainty
to HOC1.  The upper  limit for H202 is 0.5 ppbv at 20  km and
for COF2  is 0.4 ppbv at  25  km.

     Dr. D. G. MURCRAY ~ University of Denver — 77-211.
     Acquisition of  an On-Board Digital Recording System
      (completed).

The balloon-borne interferometer system has  been improved by
incorporating into it on-board  recording  capability.   Advan-
tages  are two-fold:   a back-up  is provided  in case the
telemetry system malfunctions,  and it becomes possible to
operate under atmospheric wind  conditions that might
carry  the balloon out of telemetry range.  The system was
used for  a  balloon flight October 28,  1978.   Analysis of
the recorded  data indicates the unit meets  design objectives.

     Dr.  D. G. MURCRAY — University of Denver — 78-228.
     Detection of Selected  Molecules by Ground-Based
     Solar  Spectroscopy   (completed).

Solar  spectra were examined with a resolution of 0.01 cm~l.
An atlas  of the 775-950  cm~l and 1050-1300  cm~l regions has
been prepared.
A workshop on solar spectroscopy was held at the National
Bureau of Standards, March 26, 1980.

     Drs. D. G. MURCRAY and H. K. ROSCOE — University of
     Denver; Oxford University, England — 77-219.  Strato-
     spheric HC1 Measurements Conducted as a Piggy-Back to
     Murcray's Flight.

Because the vibration problem with the solar-absorption
pressure modulator radiometer used for the HCl measurements
could not be reasonably solved, this project was cancelled.

     Drs. D. G. MURCRAY and H. K. ROSCOE — University of
     Denver; Oxford University, England — 80-328.  An Inter-
     comparison of Measurements of Stratospheric HCl.

A simultaneous measurement of the HCl profile in the strato-
sphere will be made on a balloon flight.   Muraray will utilise
a high resolution IR interferometer, and Roaaoe will uae a
pressure modulated radiometer.


                           K-34

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)


      Dr.  R.  A.  RASMUSSEN — Washington State University —
      75-2,  75-59.   Fluorocarbon Research (completed).

 An attempt  was  made to obtain halocarbon concentration
 measurements as far into the stratosphere as could be
 reached by  an available commercial aircraft.  A small  port-
 able gas  chromatograph was  used for on-board measurements,
 and cannister samples were  collected for subsequent detailed
 halocarbon  analysis on the  ground.  One phase of the study
 consisted of samples collected over a wide area of the
 Pacific Northwest,  a second of samples collected frequently
 to the maximum attainable altitude over Alaska.  The halo-
 carbon concentrations are either constant or decrease  very
 slowly with altitude in the tropopause, decrease rapidly in
 the tropopause  from the tropospheric concentration to  an
 average value identifiable  with the stratosphere, and  do
 not show  a  clear pattern of concentration gradients above
 the tropopause.

 A trans-Pacific flight from 80°N to 60°S has been completed,
 and the air samples collected have been analyzed for halo-
 carbons.  Most of the samples were collected at 39,000 to
 43,000 ft.   CFC 12  concentrations are about 10% higher in
 the north than  in the south at ground level, and the differ-
 ence is apparently  greater  for CFC 11.

     Dr. R.  A.  RASMUSSEN — Private —  77-181.  Measurement
     of the Concentration of Methyl Chloride in Air  in
     Kenya  (completed).

Air samples were obtained at ground level and by  aircraft
in Kenya and over the  Indian Ocean.  Analyses showed CH3C1
at 600-700 ppt over Kenya, rising  to 900-2000 ppm in areas
where slash burning was being conducted  (cf. Lovelock,
77-144, p. 33).  Boundary layer analyses over the Indian
Ocean were 750-880 ppm.  N20 levels were 324-378  ppb.
Other analyses showed CFC 12, 235-246 ppt; CFC 11, 137-
143 ppt? CH3CC13, 74-96 ppt; and CC14, 120-135 ppt.  Com-
parison with previous data showed  interhemispheric differ-
ences for the above five species.

     Dr. R.  A. RASMUSSEN — Oregon Graduate Center —
     78-260.  Identification of FC-21 in the Atmosphere
     (completed).

Measurements  of CFC 21 in Tasmania, at  the  South  Pole,  and
in "clean" air  from Cape Meares,  OR,  show concentrations
of 0.05-0.6  ppt, compared with  concentrations of  2 ppt  at
Harwell, U.  K.   GC/MS identification  confirms CFC 21,
distinguishing  CFC  21 from  CI^I.   CFC  21 samples  do  not
increase  in  CFC 21  content  on  storage,  nor  is CFC 21 pro-
duced  from  fluoroplastics examined, nor is  CFC  21 observable
in CFC  11 or  CFC 12 standards.   CFC 21  is highly  variable,
and more measurements are needed.
                           K-35

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)

     Dr. R. A. RASMUSSEN —  Private ~ 80-308.  F-22 Measure-
     ments in the Atmosphere.

The concentration of CFC-22  is being measured in approximately
76 air samples collected since April 1978 by the ALE network
with supplemental samples from late 1976.  The data will be
used to determine the rate of increase of CFC-22 over the
past three years.

     Dr. B. A RIDLEY — York University  — 76-102A,
     76-102B.  Measurement of Fluorocarbons  and Related
     Chlorocarbons  in the Stratosphere by Collection
     and Analysis  (completed).

Series of  evacuated stainless steel spheres  were used to
obtain samples of stratospheric  air at various altitudes
up to 39 km from three balloon flights.  Some problems
were encountered in the absolute calibration of the
electron capture gas chromatograph, but  the  results are
consistent with  a stratospheric  photolysis sink for CFC
11 and 12  and N20.

     Drs.  P. M.  SOLOMON and  R. L. deZAFRA — State
   - University  of  New York, Stony Brook —  76-130, 77-
     225,  79-278, 80-316.  Millimeter Wave Observations
     of Chlorofluoromethane  Byproducts in the Strato-
     sphere.

This study is directed toward the development of a ground-
based method for continuous  determination of CIO.  One  of
the millimeter wave observing systems is based on a 3-nm
maser, a unique  instrument that  is the most  sensitive
detector in the  world in the 83-94 GHz range.

 A 256-channel radio frequency spectrometer  has been built
 and tested for  tha analysis and identification of the weak
 pressure-broadened 93 GHz signal from stratospheric ClO.
 An upper  limit  of  1.5 ppb CIO was measured with the 130 GHz
 receiver.  In a joint effort with Bell  Laboratories CIO has
 been detected at 201 GHz at an  observatory near Amherst,
 Massachusetts.
In early 1980 the daily variability in the total CIO column
was about a factor of 2, which is not predicted by the models.
The average total CIO column was about a factor of 2 lower than
model predictions.  These measurements also indicate that the
CIO in the lower stratosphere is less than the model profile,
indicating that the OR concentration is also lower than calcu-
lated.  These results imply a lower ozone depletion than now
estimated.
                            K-36

-------
                    Table 3 (continued)
     Dr. 0. C. TAYLOR — University of California at
     Riverside — 73-3, 74-2.  Monitoring and Atmos-
     pheric Reactions of Fluorocarbons (completed).

An electron capture gas chromatograph was used to measure
the concentrations of CFCs 11 and 12 in the troposphere
over southern California and in the lower stratosphere over
New Mexico and Colorado.  The tropospheric concentrations
were found to vary from day to day as climatic conditions
affected dispersion and dilution.  Concentration decreased
with increasing altitude in the lower stratosphere.

     Dr. R. A. YOUNG - Xonics, Inc. ~ 75-50, 75-86.
     Development of an Instrument to Measure, 0, CIO,
     03, and Total Cl in the Stratosphere (completed).

A preliminary evaluation of resonance fluorescence for the
stratospheric measurement of CIO and total chlorine was
made during the September 1975 STRATCOM balloon flight.
This work and subsequent laboratory work indicated that
alternative methods for these measurements hold greater
near-term promise.

     Dr. R. ZANDER — University of Liege — 76-141, 78-232.
     Ground-based Infrared Measurements.

The 7.5-meter focal length double-pass infrared spectrometer
at the Jungfraujoch International Scientific Station (alti-
tude 3580 meters) is being used to monitor atmospheric
column densities of HF, HC1, and CI^Cl in the 2-5 micron
range.  Resolution of the instrument is about 0.02 cm~l.
The equipment will also be modified to cover the 8-13 micron
region to permit monitoring of HN03, CFCs 11 and 12, CCl^
CIO, and C10N02.

Results indicate a steady increase of about 10% per year in
HF content in the stratosphere,  whereas there is no clear
trend in the average column density of HCl.

Average column mixing ratios of 1.5 ± 0.6 x 10~9 for CH3C1
in June 1979 and an upper limit of 1.5 ± 0.5 x 10~10 for
C10N02 were measured.  Cloud cover limited winter measurements
                          K-37

-------
                         Table 3  (continued)

E.   Modeling

          Dr. G. BRASSEUR — Institut d'Aeronomie Spatiale,
          Belgium — 80-320.  Modeling of the CFC Effect on
          the Ozone Layer.

     A 2-D model will be developed in which the chemistry ia coupled
     with dynamics and temperature distribution.  A 1-D model will
     be used for studying new chemistry.  Special emphasis will be
     given to comparison between observed and computed distributions
     of trace species (^z°> CFC-11, CFC-12, CS4t ClOt ....) and
     studies of simultaneous perturbations («.g.t CFCs and C0%) in-
     cluding thermal and dynamical feedbacks on perturbation calcu-
     lations.

          Drs.  D.  M.  CUNNOLD,  F.  N. ALYEA, and R. G. PRINN —
          CAP Associates — 75-24, 76-122, 77-199,  78-252, 79-281,
          80-323.   Meteorological and Multi-Dimensional Model-
          ing Considerations Relating to Atmospheric Effects
          of Halocarbons.

     Studies to assess the accuracy and shortcomings of the 1-D
     model used to estimate ozone depletion indicated that a
     tropospheric  lifetime for CFCs 11 and 12 as short as 10
     years was not inconsistent with atmospheric measurements.
     Thus, ozone depletion estimates might be considerably less
     than present  estimates.  The great variability of strato-
     spheric measurements indicates that simultaneous measure-
     ments for many important  stratospheric species are needed
     and that seasonal dependence of species  must be considered.

     The neglect of dynamical  feedback processes in the radiative
     models used to calculate  warming (greenhouse effect)  limits
     the value of  calculated effects.   Preliminary  calculations
     have been made including  feedback effects due  to inclusion
     of the hydrological cycle and circulatory effects.   Pre-
     liminary results indicate that inclusion of the hydrological
     cycle would strongly counteract the greenhouse effect,  where-
     as circulatory changes would slightly increase it.

     Because it has been shown that meteorological  conditions can
     cause variations in both  tropospheric and lower stratospheric
     fluorocarbon  measurements in Alaska,  temporal  and latitudinal
     variability of fluorocarbon concentration has  been estimated
     with the use  of an 8-box  model of the troposphere,  and the
     results related to the sensitivity of trend detection in the
     Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (cf.  79-281, p.  17)  and to
     previous interhemispheric observations.

     A preliminary estimate was made for the  lifetime  of a tropo-
     spheric sink  due to photodecomposition of CFCs  on sand.   The
     sink would imply a lifetime  of 30 years  if 40%  of the CFCs
     were destroyed over the Sahara Desert.
                                K-38

-------
                    Table 3  (continued)


A methodology was  developed  for determining  the  lifetime of
tropospheric sinks  of  CFCs by daily monitoring.  This
methodology is being implemented under  79-279,  79-280   and
79-281  (pp. 21,  19, and  17,  respectively).

The surface temperature  increase resulting from  atmospheric
CFC mixing ratios  increasing to 2 ppbv has been  reestimated
at 0.2  ± 0.5°K (95% confidence limits).  The significance of
its impact is thus  extremely uncertain and is only one  of a
number  of factors  that could induce climatic change.

     Dr. N.  D.  SZE — Environmental Research and Tech-
     nology, Inc. — 75-32,  76-115.  Model Analysis of
     The Fluorocarbon Problem (completed).

A one-dimensional model has been used to evaluate the role
of stratospheric water in the NOX and C1X cycles, the rela-
tionship of eddy diffusion coefficient and CFC lifetime,
the use of CFC measurements  to calculate lifetime,  and the
effect of chlorine nitrate.  The importance of OH concen-
tration on calculated ozone  depletion was shown, and key
reactions were identified.  Analyses showed 10-20 year
tropospheric lifetimes were  not inconsistent with measure-
ments and helped to define quantitatively the uncertainties
associated with ozone depletion calculations.

Inclusion of multiple scattering in the model had a negligi-
ble effect on the ozone depletion estimates.   The modeled
ozone profile above 40 km is a factor of 2-3 lower than
recent measurements.  Calculated CIO profiles are a factor
of 2-4 too low at 28-35 km when compared with Anderson's
CIO data.

A diurnal model has been developed that is capable of cal-
culating stratospheric concentration profiles of any HOX,
C10X, or Ox species.

     Dr. N.  D.  SZE — Atmospheric & Environmental Research
     Inc. ~ 77-173, 78-234, 79-273, 80-311.   Theoretical Models
     of Stratospheric Chemistry,  Perturbations, and Trace
     Gas Measurements  (continuation of 76-115).

Iterative procedures, which  lower the computer time by a
factor of 3 for the diurnal model,  have been developed.

The modeled HF data and HF/HC1 ratio are at least a factor
of 2 higher than the measured values.  A possible explana-
tion is that OH is less than model predictions, thus
indicating a greater reservoir of inactive chlorine.  If
the rate of formation of OC100 is sufficiently rapid, it
can constitute a "holding tank" for active chlorine.

Theoretical calculations indicate that the possibility of
a 20-year tropospheric sink  due to adsorption of CFCs 11
and 12 on desert sand with subsequent photodecomposition
by sunlight cannot be ruled out.
                            K-39

-------
                    Table  3  (continued)

Incorporating  new  rate  constants  for the reactions H02 +
NO -»• NO + N02  and  H02 + 03 -»• HO + 202 raises  calculated
steady state ozone reduction to a level  that  should be
detectable within  6-8 years  using an 18-station network
of ozone monitoring stations.

It has been  shown  that  if  10% of  the reaction between H02
and CIO proceeds by the product channel  HC1 +03 the ozone
depletion estimate can  be  lowered by a factor of at least 2.

Preliminary  work on 2-D models has utilized a simplified
compartmental  approach. Spatial  inhomogeneity of effects
is predicted.  A full 2-D  model has been developed in a joint
effort with  the U.  S. Air  Force.

Preliminary  indications are  that  if the  downward eddy dif-
fusion coefficient is larger than the upward  eddy diffusion
coefficient, then  the calculated  ozone reduction due to
release of CFCs would be reduced.  Also,  a preliminary analy-
sis shows that the total ozone column is sensitive to the
eddy diffusion coefficient.   This could  have  a potential
feedback effect on the  ozone depletion estimate if the eddy
diffusion coefficient changes with changes in ozone.

Studies on the effect of coupling the perturbations to the
atmosphere due to  increased  concentrations of CO and CH4 and
increased use  of fertilizer  show  that the net perturbation
of ozone may be significantly less than  for CFCs alone.   In
particular,  it has been shown that coupling the effects due
to increasing  C02  resulting  from  greater use  of fossil fuel
and CFC emissions  results  in a lower value for the ozone
depletion estimate.

The effect of  anthropogenic  and natural  emissions of  organic
bromine compounds  has been considered in the  model and found
to have a minimal  effect on  the ozone depletion estimate.
The potential  importance of  02(1Ag)  reactions has been shown.
Introduction of this chemistry along with the measured
02 (^-Ag) profile into the model could enhance  the 0-03 ratio
and magnify  existing discrepancies between measured and
modeled profiles.

Current values of photodissociation cross  sections  for H02N02
indicate that  its reaction with HO could  result  in  a  reduction
of the ozone depletion  estimates  and  in better agreement between
measured and calculated profiles  for many  atmospheric species.
Measurement of C2H6 and C2H2 can  be used  to infer local con-
centrations of HO and Cl, a  further check  on observed and cal-
culated profiles.

Using current  values for the rate  constants for  the reactions of
HO with SO2,  B^OS,  and  OH  lowers  ozone depletion  estimates by
about a factor of  2.


                             K-40

-------
                        Table 3  (continued)

F.  Other

         Dr. M. J. BAILEY — University of Maryland — 80-317
         Uncertainties and Benefit-Cost Analysis of CFC Control.

    A recently concluded, EPA-funded analysis of the potential costs
    and benefits of CFC control is being expanded and further re-
    fined.  The new study takes into account recent revisions in
    atmospheric models and projected future changes in atmospheric
    composition.  Although the range of possible outcomes is broad,
    indications for the most likely case are that the benefits of
    unregulated fluorocarbon use will outweigh any of their harmful
    effects.

         Dr. D. BERGER — Temple University — 75-62.  Ground-
         Level Monitoring of Ultraviolet Solar Radiation  (com-
         pleted) .

    The monitoring of solar ultraviolet radiation, which was
    initiated by the Climatic Impact Assessment Program  (CIAP)
    and subsequently funded for one year by CMA, is now being
    supported by NOAA.

        Drs. E. PARZEN and M. PAGANO — Frontier Science  and
        Technology Research Foundation, Inc. — 76-106.   Total
        World Ozone Level:  Statistical Analysis  (completed).

   Ozone  column measurements from  at least 20 stations have
   been evaluated statistically  to detect  trends in recorded
   ozone  concentrations  and to establish the limits of detec-
   tion for such trends.  Time series analysis has been  shown
   to be  substantially more sensitive in detecting non-random
   ozone  changes than the estimates of such sensitivity made
   by the  Federal Task Force on  Inadvertent Modifications of
   the Stratosphere (IMOS) in 1975.  Analysis of ozone data
   from 9  stations shows that no detectable abnormal trend in
   the ozone data has occurred over the last 6 years.  The
   absence  of detectable trends provides an upper limit  for
   actual  depletion and  a test of  model predictions.

   If sufficient sensitivity is achieved, this technique will
   enable  an effective early warning system for ozone deple-
   tion to  be established.

        Drs. G. C. TIAO and G. REINSEL — University of
        Wisconsin — 78-250, 80-304.  Statistical Analysis
        of  World-wide Stratospheric Ozone Data for the Detec-
        tion of Trend.

   The ground-based and satellite  ozone data are being obtained
   and prepared in a form suitable for computer analysis.  Analysis
   of long-term ozone data from 36 ground-based stations shows an
   average  increase of 0.3% ± 1.4% for the period 1970-1978.  The
   NAS report indicates that the ozone should have decreased by


                                 K-41

-------
                    Table  3  (continued)


1.5% ± 1.1% during that same period.  The difference between
these two studies is statistically significant.  Ground-based
data are currently being compared with satellite ozone data in
order to assess the magnitude of errors due to instrument drift
and non-uniform positioning of ground-based ozone-measuring
stations.  In addition, efforts to correlate long-term meteoro-
logical variables with ozone data, in order to assess whether
there are long-term cycles in the ozone data, are in progress.


     Dr. G. S. WATSON — Princeton University — 78-257.
     Statistical Investigations of the CFM Problem.

Available data on ozone and related variables are being
studied in an attempt to understand the natural variation
of ozone in space and time.  Theoretical models for ozone
trends and their predictions are being checked against
observed ozone as a function of time and position.  An
effective "early warning" system will then be designed.
Preliminary analysis of Umkehr data from 32-50 km, where maximum
ozone depletion is predicted, has shown a slight increase in
ozone.   The models predict a 5% decrease.
                            K-42

-------
                       Table 3 (continued)
G.  Consultants

    1.  Under Contract

      Dr. J. G. Anderson
      Dr. D. R. Herschbach
      Dr. I. C. Hisatsune
      Dr. L. E. Snyder
      Dr. R. T. Watson
Harvard
University
      Dr. A. W. Castleman, Jr.    University of
                                  Colorado
Harvard
University
Pennsylvania
State Univer-
sity
University of
Illinois
Jet Propulsion
Laboratory
Stratospheric
Measurements

Heterogeneous
Chemistry

Homogeneous
Chemistry,
Kinetics, and
Spectroscopy

Molecular
Spectroscopy
and Chemical
Kinetics

Millimeter Wave-
length Spectros-
copy

Chemical Kinetics
and Photochemistry
    2.   Without Compensation

      Dr.  F.  C. Fehsenfeld
      Dr.  E.  E. Ferguson
NOAA Environ-    Reactions of
mental Research  Charged Species
Laboratories
                                                    November 30,  1980
                                 K-43

-------
                                           Table 4A

                      Research Funded by the Chlorofluorocarbon Industry

                                              and

                    Administered by the Chemical Manufacturers Association

                                        WORK COMPLETED
Program
Investigation of spectroscopy
  of and photochemical changes
  in fluorocarbons

Monitoring of fluorocarbons in
  the atmosphere and simula-
  tion of atmospheric reactions
  of fluorocarbons^

Measurement of fluorocarbons in
  the atmosphere0

Laboratory investigation of the
  feasibility of measuring CIO
  in the atmosphere by the
  chemical conversion-resonance
  fluorescence detection method

Laboratory determination of
  sensitivity of laser-induced
  fluorescence for the detec-
  tion of CIO under atmospheric
  conditions

Continuation of 73-3b
Continuation of 73-lb

Investigation of ion-molecule
  reactions involving chloro-
  fluorocarbons

Development of an instrument
  to measure 0, CIO, 03, and
  total Cl in the stratos-
  phere15
Investigator   Organization

Sandorfy       U. of Montreal
Taylor
Lovelock
Stedman
Davis
Pitts


Lovelock

Mohnen



Young
  U. of Calif.
  Riverside
'  U. of Reading
  U. of Michigan
  U. of Maryland
  U. of Calif.-
  Riverside

  U. of Reading

  SUNY-Albany



  Xonics, Inc.
                        Proposal   Completion
                        Number     Date
                        73-2
73-3
73-1
74-7
74-2
75-50
           10/11/74
10/16/74
10/27/74
2/28/75
74-10      5/31/75
12/31/75
74-3       12/31/75

75-64      4/1/76
4/7/76
                                                                                (continued)
                                            K-44

-------
                                     Table 4A (continued)
Program
Measurement of fluorocarbons and
  related chlorocarbons In the
  stratosphere and upper tropos-
  phere^5

Continuation of 74-2
Investigation of the destruction
  of chlorofluoromethanes by
  naturally occurring ions

Ground-based millimeter wave-
  length observations of
  stratospheric CIO

Laboratory and theoretical
  studies of the ultraviolet
  and visible electronic
  spectra of C10D

Modeling of the fluorocarbon-
  ozone system^

Critique of models used to
  estimate chlorofluorocarbon
  effects on ozoneb

Studies of reactions of HO2
  by laser magnetic resonance

Continuation of 75-50

Measurement of stratospheric
  distribution of fluoro-
  carbons and related species
  by infrared absorption
  spectroscopyb

Measurement of reaction rates
  relevant to the fluoro-
  carbon-ozone problem"

Measurement of OH in the
  stratosphere by laser
  induced fluorescence
Investigator

Rasmussen
Organization
Proposal   Completion
Number     Date
Pitts
Campbell
Ekstrom
Nicholls
Sze
Cunnold,
Alyea,
Prinn

Thrush
Young

Murcray
Birks
Davis
Washington State U.   75-2
U. of Calif.-         75-12
Riverside

Washington State U.   75-53
Battelle Northwest    75-27
York U.
ERT, Inc.


CAP Associates



U. of Cambridge


Xonics, Inc.

U. of Denver
U. of Illinois
U. of Maryland
75-11
75-32
75-24
75-1
75-87
4/15/76




4/15/76


4/23/76



5/24/76



6/14/76
8/18/76
9/10/76
75-58      11/8/76


75-86      11/15/76

75-13      1/24/77
2/4/77
2/23/77
                                                                                (continued)
                                             K-45

-------
                                     Table 4A  (continued)
Program
Exploration for unidentified
  factors in the fluorocarbon-
  ozone problem^

Laboratory studies of the
  infrared vibration-rotation
  spectrum of CIO

Absolute calibration of fluoro-
  carbon measurements

Collection and analysis of
  Antarctic ice cores

The electron capture detector
  as a reference standard in
  the analysis of atmospheric
  halocarbons

Laboratory measurement of
  spectroscopic absorption
  cross sections of CIO

Measurement of fluorocarfaon
  content of "antique" air
  samples

Measurement of HC1 and HF in
  the stratosphere by Fourier
  transform spectroscopyb

Continuation of program for
  ground level monitoring of
  ultraviolet solar radiation

Continuation of 75-lb

Studies of heterogeneous
  reactions^3

Meteorological and multi-
  dimensional modeling con-
  siderations relating to
  atmospheric effects of
  halocarbons'3

Climatic effects of fluoro-
  carbonsb
Investigator   Organization

Lovelock       Private
                      Proposal   Completion
                      Number     Date
Nicholls
Stedman
Lovelock
Davis
Buijs



Berger



Birks

Birks
Cunnold,
Alyea,
Prinn
Cunnold,
Alyea,
Prinn
                      75-67
York U.
U. of Michigan
Rasmussen      Rasmussen Assoc.
Private
U. of Maryland
75-73
Bomem, Inc.



Temple U.



U. of Illinois

U. of Illinois


CAP Associates
75-98
75-62
CAP Associates
           3/10/77
75-30b     3/25/77
76-132     4/1/77
                      75-84      4/19/77
76-120     5/3/77
5/12/77.
Rasmussen      Washington State U.   75-71      9/2/77
9/26/77
10/20/7;
76-117A    12/12/77

76-117B    12/12/7:"


76-122     12/12/73.
76-122S    12/12/77
                                                                                 (continued*
                                            K-46

-------
                                     Table 4A  (continued)
Program
Electron spin resonance detec-
  tion of stratospheric radicals
Measurement of the concentration
  of methyl chloride in air in
  Kenya

Continuation of 75-67b

Kilauea volcanic emissions—
  halocarbon measurement

Laboratory determination of the
  feasibility of laser mag-
  netic resonance for CIO
  detection and reaction
  studies

Photochemical and chemical
  kinetic measurements of
  stratospheric importance with
  respect to the fluorocarbon
  issue**

Laboratory measurement of high
  resolution infrared spectra
  of chlorine-containing
  molecules of stratospheric
  interest13

Reactions of the HO2 radical
  studied by laser magnetic
  resonance

Construction of Fourier-
  transform spectrometer

Interlaboratory comparisons of
  fluorocarbon measurements^

Generation and exchange of
  calibrated samples of fluoro-
  carbons

Laboratory investigation of the
  heterogeneous interaction of
  Cl and CIO with H2S04b
Investigator   Organization'
                                                              a
Ehhalt
Lovelock

Rasmussen


Howard
Timmons
Murcray
Thrush
Buijs
Stedman
Martin
Nuclear Research
Establishment -
Juelich
Rasmussen      Private
Private

Oregon Graduate
Center

NOAA-Boulder
Catholic U.
U. of Denver
U. of Cambridge
Bomem, Inc.
Rasmussen      Private
U. of Michigan
Aerospace Corp.
Proposal   Completion
Number     Date	

76-145     12/12/77
77-181     12/12/77



77-144     12/23/77

77-215     12/27/77
75-47
75-92
75-81
1/10/78
76-129     1/16/78
2/10/78
75-58 II   3/2/78



75-90      3/8/78


76-142     3/8/78


77-151     3/10/78
3/27/78
                                                                                (continued)
                                            K-47

-------
  Table 4A (continued)
Program
Continuation of 75-32b
Studies of compounds of sulfur,
Investigator
Sze
Kaufman
Organization3
ERT, Inc.
Emory ,U.
Proposal
Number
76-115
76-126
Completion
Date
3/28/78
5/24/78
  oxygen, and chlorine^

Total world ozone level:
  statistical analysis
Stratospheric measurement of
  CIO and OH

Laboratory study of the UV and
  IR spectra of HOC1, HOON02,
  and HCIO^ in the temperature
  range of the stratosphere

Photochemistry of small
  chlorinated molecules*3

Continuation of 75-2

Atmospheric chemistry of
  peroxynitric acid

Continuation of 75-81

Ground-based infrared measure-
  ments*3

Measurements of HC1, HF, CIO,
  etc., in the stratosphere
  by high resolution infrared
  spectroscopy

Coordination and analysis of
  data for atmospheric life-
  time experiment"

Measurement of fluorocarbons
  and related chlorocarbons
  in the stratosphere by
  collection and analysis

Continuation of 76-122b
Parzen,
Pagano
Murcray


Knauth
Rasmussen

Pitts


Martin

Zander


Girard
Cunnold,
Alyea,
Prinn

Ridley
Cunnold,
Alyea,
Prinn
Frontier Science
and Technology
Research Founda-
tion, Inc.

U. of Denver
               U. of Kiel
Wiesenfeld     Cornell U.
                                                  Washington State U.

                                                  U. of Calif.-
                                                  Riverside

                                                  Aerospace Corp.

                                                  U. of Liege


                                                  ONERA-France
CAP Associates
York U.
CAP Associates
                      76-106
                                     76-135
                                     75-88
                                     77-213
                                     76-102
                                     77-199
                                                5/25/78
                                 5/30/78
                      77-171     6/14/78
                      76-128     7/5/78


                      75-59      8/10/78

                      77-190


                      75-81 II   12/6/78

                      76-141     12/11/78
                                 1/2/79
                                                                                   2/13/79
                                                                                   2/26/79,
                                                                                   2/26/79
                                             (continued),.
          K-48

-------
                                     Table 4A (continued)
Program
                                                              a
Operation of stations at
  Adrigole and Barbados for
  atmospheric lifetime experi-
  mentb

Operation of stations in
  American Samoa and Tasmania
  for atmospheric lifetime
  experiment^5

Development of primary fluoro-
  carbon standards

Experimental investigation of
  the branching ratio in the
  O(!D) + H20 reaction

Acquisition of on-board
  digital recording system

Theoretical models of strato-
  spheric chemistry, per-
  turbations , and trace gas
  measurement a*5

Determination of the photo-
  dissociation process and
  absorption cross section
  of FC-11 and 12 in the
  near UV

Continuation of 76-129^
Total chlorine measurements
  in the troposphere and
  stratosphere

Millimeter wave observations
  of chlorofluoromethane
  byproducts in the strato-
  sphere'3

Continuation of 76-126

Photoabsorption cross
  sections for compounds of
  atmospheric interest
Investigator   Organization

Lovelock,      Private
Simmonds



Rasmussen      Oregon Graduate
Lovelock
Zellner
Murcray
Sze
Stuhl
Timmons
Eggleton
Solomon,
deZafra
Kaufman

Takacs
Private
U. of Denver
AER, Inc.
U. of Bochum
U. of Texas-
Arlington

AERE Harwell
                      Proposal   Completion
                      Number     Date	

                      77-193     2/28/79
                      77-201     3/29/79
78-226     4/2/79
U. of Goettingen      77-195     4/12/79
77-211     4/12/79
77-173     4/17/79
77-170     5/3/79
77-214
76-116
6/15/79
7/6/79
SUNY Stony Brook      76-130     7/6/79
Emory U.              77-197     7/6/79

Rochester Inat.       77-196     7/24/79
Technol.
                                                                                 (continued)
                                            K-49

-------
                                     Table 4A  (continued)
Program
Lower stratospheric measurement
  of non-methane hydrocarbons

Laboratory study for deter-
  mination of the equilibrium
  constant of the reaction
  C120 + H20 - 2 HOC1 and the
  UV spectrum of HOC1

Effect of aerosol scattering on
  ozone measurements with the
  Dobson spectrophotometer

Continuation of 75-92b

Studies of homogeneous and
  heterogeneous reactions of
  importance to the strato-
  sphere'5

Photodegradation of chloro-
  fluoromethane in the
  troposphere

Follow-up for photodecomposi-
  tion of chloromethanes
  absorbed on silica sur-
  faces15

Continuation of 77-213°
Continuation of 77-199b
Continuation of 76-128

Measurement of halogen com-
  pounds for determination of
  total chlorine and  total
  fluorine in the stratosphere
  using long-path interfero-
  metric spectroscopy
Investigator   Organization

Rasmussen      Private
                                                              a
Knauth
Moe



Murcray

Birks




Korte



Ausloos
Cunnold,
Alyea,
Prinn

Cunnold,
Alyea,
Prinn

Wiesenfeld

Buijs
U. of Kiel
Private



U. of Denver

U. of Colorado




U. of Munich



NBS




CAP Associates



CAP Associates



Cornell

Bomem, Inc.
                      Proposal   Completion
                      Number     Date

                      76-140     7/30/79
77-224     8/9/79
78-235



77-152

77-192




77-194



77-186




78-251



78-252



77-220

77-168
9/12/79



10/17/79

11/8/79




11/16/79



11/28/75




12/17/79



1/18/80



2/1/80

2/4/80
                                                                                 (continued,

-------
                                     Table 4A (continued)
Program
Determination of a measurement
  system for the determination
  of total chlorine in air

Identification of FC 21 in the
  atmosphere

Continuation of 76-130b
Continuation of 77-193b
Continuation of 77-192b

Laser magnetic resonance study
  of HO- chemistry

Study of CIO chemistry by laser
  magnetic resonance

Continuation of 77-201b
Development and implementation
  of a simplified multidimen-
  sion model for stratospheric
  chemistry perturbations,
  radiation feedback and trace
  gas measurement1*

Continuation of 77-1A2
Detection of selected mole-
  cules by ground-based
  solar spectroscopy

Analysis of Release of FC-11
  from Rigid Plastic Foam
  Products in the U. S.

The exponential dilution
  chamber for the calibration
  of instruments and the
  preparation of standards13
Investigator   Organization

Skogerboe      Colorado State U.
Rasmussen


Solomon,
deZafra

Lovelock,
Simmonds

Birks

Howard


Howard
Sze
Murcray
Shamel
Lovelock
Oregon Graduate
Center

SUNY Stony Brook
Private


U. of Colorado

NOAA-Boulder


NOAA-Boulder
Rasmussen      Oregon Graduate
               Center
AER, Inc.
Rasmussen      Oregon Graduate
               Center
U. of Denver
A.D.Little, Inc.
Private
                      Proposal   Completion
                      Number     Date	

                      77-206     2/4/80
78-260     2/5/80


77-225     2/13/80


78-243     2/18/80


78-244     2/20/80

76-100     3/12/80


77-223     3/12/80


78-248     4/24/80


78-234     5/14/80
78-247


78-228



79-275



78-264
5/28/80


5/29/80



5/29/80



7/9/80
                                                                                (continued)
                                            K-51

-------
                                     Table 4A (continued)
Program
Rates of reaction of Cl atoms
  with the primary products of
  alkane photooxldatlon

Determination of FC-21 and other
  halocarbons In the troposphere

Determination of atomic oxygen
  yields In the photolysis of
  HOC1 and C100

Submillimeter-infrared balloon
  experiment^5
Effectiveness of various un-
  treated sand surfaces bringing
  about the oxidation of CCl^,
  CFC13, and CF2C12

The A2IIi + X2JIi Band System
  of ClOb
Investigator   Organization

Kurylo         NBS
Bruner
Phillips
Bonetti,
Car11,
Harries
Ausloos
Urbino U.
U. of Canterbury
(N.Z.)
CNR - IROE
(Florence, Italy),
National Physi-
cal Laboratory
U. K.

NBS
                      Proposal   Completion
                      Number     Date
                      ________           i

                      78-233     9/4/80
78-256     9/23/80
78-241     9/30/80
76-137     11/6/80
78-254
Coxon
Dalhousie U.
78-255
a.  Abbreviated affiliations are expanded under study descriptions in Table 3.

b.  Work continued in a follow-on contract.

c.  Final report accepted by the Panel.
                                                                        November 30,  1980
                                             K-52

-------
                                           Table 4B

                      Research Funded by the Chlorofluorocarbon Industry

                                              and

                    Administered by the Chemical Manufacturers Association

                                       WORK IN PROGRESS
Program
Continuation of 75-13

Continuation of 75-11

Operational costs for flights
  planned in 1977

Laboratory measurment of
  infrared spectra of
  selected stable molecules

Development of technique for
  measuring total chlorine
  content of air

Simultaneous balloon flight
  with J. G. Anderson

Continuation of 76-141

Absorption measurements of
  HOC1 and related mole-
  cules

Statistical analysis of
  worldwide stratospheric
  ozone data for the
  detection of trends0

Continuation of 78-234c

Statistical investigations
  of the CFM problem

Continuation of 77-152

Continuation of 78-244c
Investigator   Organization

Murcray        U. of Denver

Nicholls       York U.

Buijs          Bomem, Inc.
                                                               Proposal   Contract
                Number
           Date
Buijs
Howard,
Birks,
Fehsenfeld

Murcray
Zander

Timmons



Tiao, Box




Sze

Watson


Murcray

Birks
                76-101     4/6/76

                75-11 II   8/18/76

                77-156     6/9/77
U. of Liege

U. of Texas-
Arlington
U. of
Wisconsin
AER, Inc.       79-273

Princeton U.    78-257


U. of Denver    78-265

U. of Colorado  79-276
Contract
Period

10    b
12 mo.

12 mo.b

12 mo.b
Bomem, Inc.     77-221     2/24/78    14 mo.1
NOAA-Boulder/   77-222     3/27/78    12 mo.
U. of Colorado
U. of Denver    77-166     4/27/78     9 mo.
78-232     6/28/78    12 mo.

78-258     1/12/79    12 mo.1
78-250     4/4/79     18 mo.
           7/26/79    12 mo.

           8/2/79     24 mo.


           8/23/79    12 mo.1
           9/1/79
12 mo.
                                                                             (continued)
                                            K-53

-------
                                     Table 4B (continued)
Program
                                                           a
                                                               Proposal   Contract   Contract
Investigator   Organization    Number
                           Date
Measurement of the Vertical
  Distribution of HC1, 03,
  and ECHO and the ratio
  HF/HC1
Jouve
U. of Reims
79-290
                      Period
Combination and continuation
of 78-251 and 78-252C
Determination of tropospherlc
halocarbons and their
relative importance
Continuation of 78-243c
Operation of Fifth ALE
Station, Cape Mearea, ORC
Continuation of 78-248c
Continuation of 77-225c
Reaction of CIO with OH
Kinetic Studies of Strato-
spheric Chlorine Chem-
istry
Reaction of OH with CIO
Continuation of 78-264
Airborne millimeter wave
determination of CIO
Uncertainties and benefit-
cost analysis of CFC
control
Continuation of 79-273
Continuation of 79-278
Cunnold ,
Alyea,
Prinn
Simmonds ,
Lovelock
Simmonds
Rasmussen
Rasmus sen
Solomon,
deZafra
Donovan
Howard
Ravishankara
Lovelock
Beckman
Bailey
Sze
Solomon,
deZafra
CAP Assoc.
Private
Private
Oregon Grad-
uate Center
Oregon Grad-
uate Center
SUNY Stony
Brook
U. of
Edinburgh
NOAA-Boulder
Georgia Tech.
Private
Queen Mary
College,
London
U. of
Maryland
AER, Inc.
SUNY Stony
Brook
79-281
79-269
79-280
78-263
79-279
79-278
79-286
79-289
80-295
80-293
79-282
80-317
80-311
80-316
11/16/79
11/19/79
11/20/79
11/21/79
11/21/79
1/3/80
2/20/80
4/20/80
5/23/80
6/9/80
6/24/80
8/7/80
8/11/80
8/19/80
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
6 mo.
6 mo.
Open
12 mo.
12 mo.
b
b
b
b
b









9/18/80    12 mo.
                                                                             (continued)
                                            K-54

-------
Program
                                     Table 4B (continued)
                               Proposal    Contract    Contract
Investigator   Organization    Number      Date        Period
F-22 measurements in the
atmosphere
Continuation of 78-250
Continuation of 79-276
Continuation of 78-255
Far-infrared laboratory
spectroscopy of halogen-
containing molecules
Continuation of 79-281
Continuation of 76-137
Infrared spectroscopy of
atmospheric species
Near- and Far- Infrared
Spectroscopy
Reactions within the HOX
cycle
Modeling of the CFC effect
on the ozone layer
Collaborative studies on
atmospheric spectroscopy
Continuation of 79-280
Continuation of 78-263
and 79-279
An inter comparison of
measurements of strato-
Rasmussen
Reinsel ,
Tiao
Birks
Coxon
Traub ,
Chance
Cunnold ,
Alyea,
Prinn
Bonetti
Howard
Saykally
Kurylo
Brasseur
Goldman,
Barbe
Simmonds
Rasmus sen
Murcray ,
Roscoe
Private
U, of
Wisconsin
U. of Colorado
Dalhousie U.
Smithsonian
Astrophysical
Observatory
at Harvard
CAP Assoc.
U. of Florence
NOAA-Boulder
U. of
California
NBS
Institut
d ' Aeronomie
Spatiale,
Belgium
U. of Denver/
U. of Reims
Private
Oregon Gradu-
ate Center
U. of Denver,
Oxford U.
80-308
80-304
80-321
80-315
80-318
80-323
80-297
80-299
80-300
80-307
80-320
80-322
80-324
80-325
80-328
9/26/80
10/13/80
10/21/80
10/23/80
10/31/80
11/18/80
Pending
Pending
Pending
Pending
Pending
Pending
Pending
Pending
Pending
6 mo.
15 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
24 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
12 mo.
Open
  spheric HC1
                                                                          (continued)
                                            K-55

-------
                                     Table 4B (continued)


                                                               Proposal   Contract   Contract
Program	'	   Investigator   Organization    Number     Date	     Period
Continuation of 79-276          Birks          U. of Colorado  80-329     Pending    12 mo.
a.  Abbreviated affiliations are expanded under study descriptions in Table 3.

b.  Contract extended.

c.  Work continued in a follow-on contract.

d.  Dependent on appropriate cofunding.
                                                               November 30, 1980


                                            K-56

-------
                              Table 5

PUBLICATIONS FROM WORK SUPPORTED BY CHLOROFLUOROCARBON MANUFACTURERS


Alexander Grant & Company

   1.  Environmental Analysis of Fluorocarbons FC-11, FC-12, and FC-22,
       February 5, 1976.

   2.  Environmental Analysis of Fluorocarbons FC-11, FC-12, and FC-22—
       Manufacturing Chemists Association, July 8, 1977.

   3.  1977 World Production and Sales of Fluorocarbons FC-11 and FC-12,
       June 26, 1978.

   4.  1978 World Production and Sales of Fluorocarbons FC-11 and FC-12,
       July 24, 1979.


Allied Chemical Corporation

   1.  Statistical Modeling of Total Ozone Measurements with an Example
       Using Data from Arosa, Switzerland, W. J. Hill and P. N. Sheldon,
       Geophys. ReB. Lett., 21  (12), 541-4  (1975).
       •I^MM^^te^^^M^H^Mi^^^^nM^B^^MB^BMM^^^^^  ^QM

   2.  Analyzing Worldwide Total Ozone for Trends, W. J. Hill, P. N.
       Sheldon, and J. J. Tiede, Geophys. Res. Lett., £(1), 21-4  (1977).

   3.  Quantifying the Threshold of Stratospheric Ozone Trend Detection
       Using Time Series Analysis, P. N. Sheldon, J.J. Tiede, and W. J.
       Hill, Proc. Fifth Conf. Probability Statistics (Am. Meterol.
       Soc.), 234-9  (1977).

   4.  Ozone Trend Detectability:  Update and Discussion, J.J. Tiede,
       P. N. Sheldon, and W. J. Hill, Atmos. Environ., 13(7), 999-1003
       (1979).                        	


P. Ausloos, National Bureau of Standards

   1.  Decomposition of N20 Over Particulate Matter, R.  E. Rebbert and
       P.A., Geophys. Res. Lett., J5  (9), 761-4  (1978).


J. W. Birks, University of Colorado  (Formerly University of Illinois)

   1.  Four-Center Reactions Involving Dichlorine Monoxide, J.W.B., B.
       Shoemaker, T.J. Leek, and D.M. Hinton, draft ms.

   2.  Studies of Reactions of Importance in the Stratosphere. I. Reaction
       of Nitric Oxide With Ozone, J.W.B., B.Shoemaker,  T.J. Leek, and
       D.M. Hinton, J. Chem. Phys., 65  (12), 5181-5  (1976)  (12/15/76).
                    I^^MM^^^M^BM^MM^^B^^^^H^^M^M^  ^^^%


                                                      (continued)


                                   K-57

-------
                   Table 5  (continued)
J. W. Birks, University of Colorado  (Continued)

    3.  Studies of Reactions of Importance  in  the  Stratosphere.   II.  Re-
        actions Involving Chlorine Nitrate  and Chlorine  Dioxide,  J.W.B.,
        B. Shoemaker, T.J. Leek, R.M. Borders, and L.J.  Hart,  J.  Chem.
        Phva.. 66  (10), 4591-9  (1977)  (5/15/77).               	

    4.  Studies of Reactions of Importance  in  the  Stratosphere.  III.
        Rate Constant and Products of the Reaction Between  ClO and  H02
        Radicals at 298 K, T.J. Leek, J-E.L. Cook, and J.W.B., J. Chem.
        Phys.,  72  (4), 2364-73  (1980).                        	

    5.  Studies of Reactions of Importance  in  the  Stratosphere.  IV. Rate
        Constant for the Reaction Cl+HOCl •» HCl+ClO over the Temperature
        Range 243-265 K, J-E.L. Cook, C.A.  Ennis,  T.J. Leek, and  J.W.B.,
        draft ms.


A. Bonetti, University of Florence

    1.  New Measurements of Stratospheric Composition Using Submilli-
        metre and Infrared Emission Spectroscopy,  M.J... Bangham, A.B.,
        R.H. Bradsell, B. Carli, J.E. Harries, F.  Mencaraglia, D.G.
        Moss, S. Pollitt, E. Rossi, and N.  R.  Swann, draft  ms.


F. Bruner, University of Urbino

    1.  A Calibration Method for the GC Analysis of Halocarbons in
        Atmospheric Samples Using Permeation Tubes and BCD, G.
        Crescentini, F. Mangani, A.R. Mastrogiacomo, and F.B., draft ms.

    2.  Occurrence of F21  (CHCljF) in the Troposphere, G. Crescentini
        and F. B., draft ms.


H. L. Buijs, Bomem, Inc.

    1.  Simultaneous Measurement of the Volume Mixing Ratios of HC1 and
        HP in the Stratosphere, H.L.B., G.L. Vail, G. Tremblay, and
        D.J.W. Kendall, Geophys. Rea. Lett., 2. W' 205-8 (1980).

M. J. Campbell, Washington State University

    1.  Halocarbon Decomposition by Natural  lonization, M.J.C., Geophys.
        Res. Lett., 3  (11), 661-4  (1976).
        ^•—       «•>
    2.  Reply to comments by F.C. Fehsenfeld and D.L. Albritton on
        preceding paper [Geophys. Res. Lett.,  £(1), 61-3 (1979], M.J.C.,
        Geophys. Res. Lett., 1  (1), 64 (1977).


                                                    (continued)
                                 K-58

-------
                        Table  5  (Continued)


Chemical Manufacturers Association

    1.  World Production and Release of Chlorofluorocarbons  11  and 12
        Through 1978, August 6,  1979.

    2.  World Production and Release of Chlorofluorocarbons  11  and 12
        Through 1979, May  23,  1980.


M.A.A. Clyne, Queen Mary College (London)

    1.  Reaction Kinetics  Involving Ground X2II and Excited A2E+ Hydroxy
        Radicals.  Part 1. Quenching Kinetics of OH A2Z+ and Rate
        Constants for Reactions  of OH X2II with CH3CCl3 and CO,  M.A.A.C.
        and P.M. Holt, J.  Chem.  Soc. Faraday Trans. 2, 75  (3) 569-81
         (1979).                                        —

    2.  Reaction Kinetics  Involving Ground X2II and Excited A2!* Hydroxy
        Radicals.  Part 2. Rate  Constants for Reactions of OH X2II  with
        Halogenomethanes and Halogenoethanes, M.A.A.C. and P.M. Holt,
        J. Chem. Soc. Faraday  Trans. 2, 75  (3), 582-91 (1979).

    3.  Kinetic Studies of Free  Radical Reactions by Mass Spectrometry.
        I.  The Reactions  SO + N02 and CIO + NO, M.A.A.C. and A.J.
        MacRobert, Int. J. Chem. Kinet., 12 (2), 79-96 (1980).


R. A. Cox, AERE Harwell (England)

    1.  Kinetics of Chlorine Oxide Radicals Using Modulated  Photolysis.
        Part 2. ClO and C100 Radical Kinetics in the Photolysis of
        Cl2 + 02 + N2 Mixtures,  R.A.C, R.G. Derwent, A.E.J.  Eggleton,
        and H.J. Reid, J.   Chem.  Soc. Faraday Trans. 1, 75  (7),  1648-66
         (1979).

P.M. Cunnold, F.N. Alyea,   R.G. Prinn, Massachusetts Institute of
    Technology and Georgia Institute of Technology

    1.  The Impact of Stratospheric Variability on Measurement  Programs
        for Minor Constituents,  R.G.P., F.N.A., and D.M.C.,  Bull.  Am.
        Meteorol. Soc., 57 (6),  686-94 (1976)

    2.  Meteorological Control of Lower Stratospheric Minor  Species
        Variations: An Observational Example, F.N.A.  and D.M.C.,  Atmos.
        Environ.,  12,  (6-7),  1075-80 (1978).

    3.  Meterorological Constraints on Tropospheric Halocarbon  and
        Nitrous Oxide Destructions by Siliceous Land Surfaces,  F.N.A.,
        D.M.C., and R.G.P., Atmos. Environ, !£ (6-7), 1009-11 (1978).

    4.  A Methodology for  Determining the Atmospheric Lifetime  of  Fluro-
        carbons, D.M.C., F.N.A., and R.G.P., J. Geophys.  Res.,  83  (C 11),
        5493-5500  (1978).                                        ~*
                                                     (continued)

                                 K-59

-------
                        Table 5  (Continued)

P.M. Cunnold, F.N. Alyeaf R.G. Prinn, Massachusetts Institute of
    Technology and Georgia Institute of Technology  (continued)


    5.  Uncertainties in Feedbacks in Simple Climate Models and Their
        Influence on Prediction of the Climatic Impact of Fluorocarbons,
        R.G.P., F.N.A., C.A. Cardelino, and D.M.C, draft ms.

    6.  Comment on "Measurement of CCl^F and CC14 at Harwell over  the
        Period January 1975-November 1977," D.M.C., F.N.A., and R.G.P.,
        Atmos. Environ., 14(5), 617-18  (1980).
D. D. Davis, Georgia Institute of Technology  (Formerly University of
      Maryland).

    1.  A Temperature Dependent Kinetics Study of the Reaction of OH
        with CHsCl, CH2C12, CHCla, and CK^Er, D.D.D., G. Machado,
        B. Conaway, Y. Oh, and R. Watson, J. Chem. Phys., 65  (4),
        1268-74  (1976)  (8/15/76).                         *~*

    2.  A Temperature Dependent Kinetics Study of the Reaction of OH
        with CH2C1F, CHC12F, CHC1F2, CH3CCl3, CH3CF2C1,  and CF2C1CFC12,
        R. T. Watson, G. Machado, B. Conaway, S. Wagner, and D.D.D.,
        J. Phys. Chem., 81  (3), 256-62  (1977)  (2/10/77).
                                                           2   2
    3.  High Resolution Absorption Cross Sections for the A n-X II Sys-
        tem of CIO, P. H. Wine, A. R. Ravishankara, D. L. Philen, D.D.D.,
        and R. T. Watson, Chem. Phys. Lett., 50  (1), 101-6 (1977)
        (8/15/77).                           ~~


E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Inc.

    1.  Atmospheric Stability of Fluoroalkanes - Implications for Ozone
        Depletion, R. L. McCarthy and J. P. Jesson, Symposium on Fluo-
        rine Chemistry, Kyoto, Japan, August 26, 1976.

    2.  Measurement of the Reaction Rate of CFC13 with Atmosphere-Like
        Ions, R. G. Hirsch, Atmos. Environ., 10  (9), 703-5 (1976).
        Comment.  F. C. Fehsenfeld, D. L. Albritton, et  al.,  Ibid., 11
        (3), 283-4  (1977).  Reply, R.G.H., 284-5.            	  	

    3.  Laboratory Microwave Spectrum of C10N02 and Evidence for the
        Existence of C10NO, R. D. Suenram, D. R. Johnson, L.  C. Glasgow,
        and P. Z. Meakin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 3 (10), 611-14 (1976),
        ^ (12) , 758  (1976) .                    """

    4.  The Fluorocarbon-Ozone Theory.  I.  Production and Release,
        World Production and Release of CC13F and CC12F2 (Fluorocarbons
        11 and 12) through 1975, R. L. McCarthy, F.  A. Bower, and J. P.
        Jesson, Atmos. Environ., 11 (6), 491-7 (1977).


                                                    (continued)
                                 K-60

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Inc.  (continued)

    5.  The Fluorocarbon-Ozone Theory.  II.  Tropospheric Lifetime, An
        Experimental Estimate of the Tropospheric Lifetime of CC13F,
        J. P. Jesson, P. Meakin, and L. C. Glasgow, Atmos. Environ.,
        11 (6), 499-508  (1977).
        Photodecomposition of Chloromethanes Adsorbed on Silica Surfaces,
        P. Ausloos, R. E. Rebbert, and L. C. Glasgow, J. Res. Nat. Bur.
        Stand., A, 82  (1), 1-8  (1977)  (7-S/-/77).
    7.  A One-Dimensional Model of ATmospheric Transport and Photochem-
        istry, P. Meakin, C. Miller, R. G. E. Franks, and J. P. Jesson,
        draft ms.

    8.  World Production and Release of Chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12
        Through 1976, Anon., draft ms., July 15, 1977.

    9.  The Stratospheric Abundance of Peroxynitric Acid, J. P. Jesson,
        L. C. Glasgow, D. L. Filkin, and C. Miller, Geopnys. Res. Lett.,
        JL (11), 513-16  (1977).

   10.  World Production and Release of Chlorofluorocarbons 11 and 12
        Through 1977, Anon., draft ms., July 17, 1978.

   11.  The Fluorocarbon-Ozone Theory.   III.  'Fluorocarbon Mixing and
        Photolysis.  The Effects of Eddy Diffusion and Tropospheric
        Lifetime on C13F and CC12F2 Tropospheric Mixing Ratios, P.
        Meakin, P. S. Gumerman, L. C. Glasgow, and J. P. Jesson, Atmos.
        Environ., I2_ (6-7) , 1271-85  (1978).

   12.  The Fluorocarbon-Ozone Theory.  IV.  Fluorocarbon Mixing and
        Photolysis.  The Effects of Eddy Diffusion and Tropospheric
        Lifetime on Stratospheric Odd Chlorine Mixing Ratios, L. C.
        Glasgow, P. S. Gumerman, P. Meakin, and J. P. Jesson, Atmos.
        Environ., 12,  (11), 2159-72  (1978).

   13.  The Fluorocarbon-Ozone Theory.  V.  One-dimensional Modeling
        of the Atmosphere, C. Miller, P. Meakin, R. G. E. Franks, and
        J. P. Jesson, Atmos. Environ., ,12.  (12) 2481-2500 (1978) .

   14.  The Fluorocarbon-Ozone Theory.  VI.  Atmospheric Modeling—
        Calculation of the Diurnal Steady State, C. Miller, D. L.
        Filkin, and J. P. Jesson, Atmos. Environ., 13 (3),  381-94
        (1979).

   15.  Extended Theory of Tandem Electron Capture Detectors, J. D. Lee
        and R. G. Hirsch, Atmos. Environ., 13.  (9), 1305-9  (1979).

   16.  The Stratospheric Abundance of Hypochlorous Acid (HOC1), L. C.
        Glasgow, J. P. Jesson, D. L. Filkin, and C. Miller, Planet.
        Space Sci., 27  (8), 1047-54  (1979).
        ^••^Mi


                                                     (continued)


                                1C-61

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Inc.  (continued)

   17.  Temperature Dependent Absorption Cross-Sections for Formaldehyde
        (CH20):  The Effect of Formaldehyde on Stratospheric Chlorine
        Chemistry, A. M. Bass, L. C. Glasgow, C. Miller, J. P. Jesson,
        and D. L. Filkin, Planet. Space Sci., 2^  (7), 675-9  (1980).

   18.  The Fluorocarbon-Ozone Theory.  VII.  One Dimensional Modeling.
        An Assessment of Anthropogenic Perturbations, C. Miller, J. M.
        Steed, D. L. Filkin, and J. P. Jesson, Atmos. Environ., in
        press.

   19.  Two-Dimensional Model Calculations of Stratospheric HC1 and CIO,
        J. M. Steed, C. Miller, D. L. Filkin, and J. P. Jesson, Nature,
        in press.

   20.  Time Series Search for Trend in Total Ozone Measurements, D. S.
        St. John, draft ms.


J. E. Harries, National Physical Laboratory, U. K.

    1.  See 1 under Bonetti.


Hoechst AG

    1.  Global Distribution of Fluorocarbons, 0. Klais and H. J. Fink,
        Ber. Bunsenges. Phys. Chem., 8J. (11), 1147-50 (1978).

    2.  Heterogeneous Photolysis of Fluorocarbons Adsorbed on Artificial
        and Natural Dusts and Sand Samples, 0. Klais and M. F. Feser,
        Hoechst Internal Report, 1978.


C. J. Howard, NOAA Boulder

    1.  Kinetics of the Reaction of H02 with N02, C.J.H., J. Chem. Phys.,
        £7  (11), 5258-63 (1977).

    2.  Kinetics of the Reaction of HO? with NO, C.J.H. and K. M.
        Evenson, Geophys. Res. Lett., J^ (10) 437-40 (1977).

    3.  Temperature Dependence of the Reaction H02 + NO •* OH + N02,
        C.J.H., J. Chem. Phys., 71_ (6) , -2352-9 (1979).

    4.  Temperature Dependence of the Reaction of CIO and HO2 Radicals,
        R. M. Stimpfle, R.  A. Perry, and C.J.H., J. Chem. Phya., 71
        (12) , 5183-90  (1979) .                                    ~~
                                                     (continued)


                                 K-62

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


C. J. Howard, NOAA Boulder  (continued)

    5.  Kinetics of the Reaction of HO2 with Ozone, M. S.  Zahniser and
        C.J.H., J. Chem. Phys., TQ (4), 1620-6  (1980).

    6.  Yields of H02 in the Reaction of Hydrogen Atoms with Ozone,
        C.J.H. and B. J. Finlayson-Pitts, J. Chem. Phys.,  72  (6),
        3842-3  (1980).                                    -"*•

    7.  Kinetic Study of the Equilibrium H02 + NO = HO + N02 and the
        Thermochemistry of H02> C.J.H., J. Am. Chem. Soc.,  102  (23),
        6937-41 (1980).                                    ~~~*

    8.  Tunable Diode Laser Measurement of Nitrous Oxide in Air, P. S.
        Connell, R. A. Perry, and C.J.H., Geophys. Res. Lett.,  in
        press.

    9.  Laser Magnetic Spectroscopy of CIO and Kinetic Studies  of the
        Reactions of CIO with NO and N02, Y. P. Lee, R. M.  Stimpfle,
        R. A. Perry, J. A. Mucha, K. M. Evenson, D. A. Jennings, and
        C.J.H., draft ms.


M. Kaufman, Emory University

    1.  Rate Constant of the Reaction between Chlorine Atoms and Sulfur
        Dioxide and Its Significance for Stratospheric Chlorine Chem-
        istry, L. W. Strattan, R. E. Eibling, and M. K., Atmos. Environ.,
        13  (1), 175-7  (1979).
H. D. Knauth, University of Kiel

    1.  Equilibrium Constant of the Gas Reaction C120 + H2O =  2HOC1
        and the Ultraviolet Spectrum of HOCl, H.D.K., H. Alberti, and
        H. Clausen, J. Phys. Chem., JQ (12), 1604-12  (1979).


F. Korte, Technical University of Munich

    1.  Mineralization of Chlorofluorocarbons in the Sunlight  of  the
        Troposphere, S. Gaeb, J. Schmitzer, H. W. Thamm, and F.K.,
        Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. Engl., 17_ (5) , 366  (1978).

    2.  Heterogeneous Photodecomposition of Fluorochlorocarbons under
        Simulated Tropospheric Conditions, S. Gaeb and F.K., Ber.
        Bunsenges. Phys. Chem., 82, (11), 1151-3  (1978).

    3.  Degradation of CC12F2:  Formation of C02 upon Adsorption  on
        Mecca Sand, M. Bahadir, S. Gaeb, J. Schmitzer, and F.K.,
        Chemosphere, 7  (12), 941-2  (1978).
        •^^^••^^^•^M^HMMH^M^B^^BM  ^^^


                                                     (continued)

                                  K-63

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


F. Korte, Technical University of Munich  (continued)
                          14
    4.  Mineralisation of   CC12F2 Catalyzed by Active  Surfaces,
        M. Bahadir, S. Gaeb, J. Schmitzer, and F.K.,  Z.  Naturforach.  B,
        ,34 (6), 822-6  (1979).

    5.  Mineralization of CCl4 and CC12F2 on Solid  Surfaces,  Z.
        Naturforsch. B, £5,  (8), 946-52  (1980).


M. J. Kuryloj National Bureau of Standards

    i.  Rate Constant Measurements for  the Reaction Cl  + CH20 •* HCl +
        CHO.  Implications  Regarding  the Removal of Stratospheric
        Chlorine, P. C. Anderson and  M.J.K., J. Phys. Chem., j 3.  (16),
        2055-7  (1979).

    2.  A Flash Photolysis  Resonance  Fluorescence Investigation of the
        Reaction OH + CH3CC13 + H20 + CH2CC13, M.J.K.,  P. C.  Anderson,
        and 0. Klais, Geophys. Res. Lett., .6. (10),  760-2 (1979).

    3.  An Upper Limit for  the Rate Constant of the Bimolecular Reaction
        CH3 + 02 *  HO +  H2CO at 368K, 0.  Klais,. P.  C. Anderson,  A.  H-
        Laufer, and M. J. K., Chem. Phys. Lett., 66 (3),  598-601 (1979).

    4.  Rate Constant Determinations  for the Reaction of Hydroxyl
        Radicals with Methyl Chloroform:  A Review  of Recent  Studies
        and Their Effect on the Calculation of Tropospheric OH, M.J.K.,
        P. C. Anderson, and 0. Klais, draft ms.

    5.  A Reinvestigation of the Temperature Dependence  of the Rate Con-
        stant for the Reaction 0+02+M+03+M  (for  M « 02/ »2, and
        Ar) by the Flash Photolysis Resonance Fluorescence Technique,
        0. Klais, P. C. Anderson, and M.J.K., Int.  J. Chem. Kinet.,
        1^ (7) , 469-90 (1980).

    6.  Atmospheric Quenching of Vibrationally Excited  02<1A)  » 0.  Klais,
        A. H. Laufer, andM.J.K., J.  Chem. Phys., j73^ (6) , 2696-9 (1980).


J. E. Lovelock, University  of Reading

    1.  Atmospheric Halocarbons and Stratospheric Ozone,  J.E.L., Nature,
        ^52, 292-4  (1974)  (11/22/74).

    2.  Long-range Transport of Photochemical Ozone in  Northwestern
        Europe, R. A. Cox,  A. E. J. Eggleton, R. G. Derwent,  J.E.L.,
        and D. H. Pack, Nature, 255,  118-21  (1975)  (5/8/75).

    3.  Natural Halocarbons in the Air  and Sea, J.E.L.,  Nature, 256,
        193-4  (1975)  (7/17/75).                                 ~*~


                                                     (continued)

                                   K-64

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


J. E. Lovelock, University of Reading  (continued)

    4.  Photochemical Oxidation of Halocarbons in the Troposphere,
        R. A. Cox, R. P. Derwent, A. E. J. Eggleton, and J.E.L.,
        Atmos. Environ., l^  (4), 305-8  (1976).

    5.  Halocarbon Behavior  from a Long Time Series, D. H. Pack, J.E.L.,
        G. Cotton, and C. Curthoys, Atmos. Environ., 11  (4),  329-44
         (1977).

    6.  The Electron Capture Detector Theory and Practice, J.E.L.,
        J. Chromatogr., 99,  3-12  (1974).

    7.  Methyl Chloroform in the Troposphere as an  Indicator  of OH
        Radical Abundance, J.E.L., Nature, 267, 32  (1977).

    8.  Fluorotrichloromethane and Tetrachloromethane Data in the British
        Isles 1970-1975, J.E.L. and D. H. Pack, Health Saf. Lab. Environ.
        Q. - U. S. Energy Res. Dev. Adm.,  (April),  3-20  (1976).

    9.  Electron-Capture Detector:  Theory and Practice.  II.  J.E.L.
        and A. J. Watson, J. Chromatogr., JJ58, 123-38  (1978).


L. R. Martin and H. S. Judeikis, Aerospace Corporation

    1.  Measurement of Chlorine Atom Diffusion, H.S.J. and M. Wun,
        J. Chem. Phys., 68. (9), 4123-7  (1978)  (5/1/78).

    2.  Chlorine Atom and ClO Wall Reaction Products, L.R.M., A. G. Wren,
        and M. Wun, Int. J.  Chem. Kinet., j.^ (5), 543-57 (1979).

    3.  Surface Reactions of Chlorine Molecules and Atoms with Water and
        Sulfuric Acid at Low Temperatures, A. G. Wren, R. W.  Phillips,
        and L. U. Tolentino, J. Colloid Interface Sci., 70  (3), 544-57
         (1979).                                         "*~

    4.  Heterogeneous Reactions of Cl and CIO in the Stratosphere, L.R.M.,
        H.S.J., and M. Wun,  J. Geophys. Res., ^ (CIO), 5511-18 (1980).


K. Moe

    1.  Simultaneous Measurements of Total Ozone and Aerosol  Extinction,
        K.M., L. Muth, and P. Crooimans, ms. for presentation at Inter-
        national Ozone Symposium, Boulder, Colo., 1980.
                                                     (continued)


                                   K-6S

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


D. G. Murcray, University of Denver

    1.  Simultaneous Stratospheric Measurements of Pluorocarbons and
        Odd Nitrogen Compounds, W. J. Williams, J. J. Rosters,  :
        A. Goldman, and D.G.M., draft ms.

    2.  Statistical-Band-Model Analysis and Integrated Intensity for
        the 10.8 ym Band of CF2C12/ A. Goldman, F. S. Bonomo, and D.G.M.,
        Geophys. Res. Lett., 3  (6), 308-12  (1976).
        ^^^^^^^••^^^^•^^••^^•••^••••^^MH^Mfl^^^B  ^^f+

    3.  Measurements of Stratospheric Fluorocarbon Distribution Using
        Infrared Techniques, W. J. Williams, J. J. Rosters, A. Goldman,
        and D.G.M., Geophys. Res. Lett., 3. (7), 379-82 (1976).

    4.  Measurement of Stratospheric Mixing Ratio Altitude Profile of
        HC1 Using  Infrared Absorption Techniques, W. J. Williams, J. J.
        Rosters, A. Goldman, and D.G.M., Geophys. Res. Lett., 3  (7),
        383-5  (1976).                                         *~

    5.  Statistical Band Model Analysis and Integrated Intensity for
        the 11.8 urn Band of CFC13, A. Goldman, F. S. Bonomo, and D.G.M.,
        Appl. Opt., IS, (10), 2305-7 (1976).

    6.  Upper Limit for Stratospheric C10N02 from Balloon-Borne Infrared
        Measurements, D.G.M., A. Goldman, W. J. Williams, F. H. Murcray,
        F. S. Bonomo, C. M. Bradford, G. R. Cook, P. L. Hanst, and
        M. J. Molina, Geophys. Res. Lett., 4  (6), 227-30  (1977).
                      ^M^H^MM^^MMNMMM^^HIMHM^M^H^^MM^M  #^^

    7.  Identification of the V3 Vibration-Rotation Band of CF4 in
        Balloon-Borne Infrared Solar Spectra, A. Goldman, D.G.M., F. J.
        Murcray, G. R. Cook, J. W. Van Allen, F. S. Bonomo, and R. D.
        Blatherwick, Geophys. Res. Lett., J5_ (7), 609-12  (1979).

    8.  Stratospheric Distribution of Chlorine Nitrate, D.G.M., A.
        Goldman, F. H. Murcray, F. J. Murcray, and W. J.  Williams,
        Geophys. Res. Lett., 6^ (11), 857-9  (1979).


R. W. Nicholls, York University

    1.  The Absorption Cross Sections and f-Values for the v" = 0
        Progression of Bands and Associated Continuum for the CIO
        (A2IIi •*• X2IIi) System, M. Mandelman and R.W.N., J. Quant.
        Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 17 (4), 483-91  (19777"!


M. Pagano and E. Parzen, State University of New York at Buffalo

    1.  Statistical Time Series Analysis of Worldwide Total Ozone for
        Trends, E.P., M.P., and H. J. Newton, draft ms.


                                                     (continued)


                                   K-66

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


J. N. Pitts, Jr., and 0. C. Taylor, University of California
    at Riverside"

    1.  Fluorocarbons in the Los Angeles Basin, N. E. Hester, E. R.
        Stephens, and O.C.T., J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc., 24  (6),
        519-5  (1974).                                        "*-*

    2.  Relative Rate Constants for the Reaction of 0( D) Atoms with
        Fluorocarbons and N20, J.N.P., H. L. Sandoval, and R. Atkinson,
        Chem. Phys. Lett., 29^  (1) , 31-4  (1974)  (11/1/74).

    3.  Reactions of Electronically Excited 0( D) Atoms with Fluoro-
        carbons, H. L. Sandoval, R. Atkinson, and J.N.P., J. Photochem.,
        £ (4), 325-7  (1974).

    4.  Tropospheric and Stratospheric Chemical Sinks for Commercial
        Fluorocarbons, J.N.P. and R. Atkinson, Trans. Amer. Geophys.
        Union, 55L (12) , 1153 (1974).

    5.  Mechanisms of Photochemical Air Pollution, J.N.P. and B. J.
        Finlayson, Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. Engl., 14  (1), 1-15  (1975).

    6.  Fluorocarbon Air Pollutants.  II.  N. E. Hester, E. R.  Stephens,
        and O.C.T., Atmos. Environ., A  (6^7), 603-6 (1975).

    7.  Fluorocarbon Air Pollutants, Measurements in Lower Stratosphere,
        N. E. Hester, E. R. Stephens, and O.C.T., Environ. Sci. Technol.,
       ^ (9), 875-6  (1975).

    8.  The Photostability of Fluorocarbons, S. Japar, J.N.P.,  and
        A. M. Winer, draft ms.

    9.  Background and Vertical Atmospheric Measurements of Fluorocarbon-
        11 and Fluorocarbon-12 over Southern California, L. Zafonte,
        N. E. Hester, E. R. Stephens, and O.C.T., Atmos. Environ.,  9,
        1007-9 (1975).                                             **

   10.  Rate Constants for the Reaction of OH Radicals with CHF2C1,
        CF2C12, CFC13, and H2 Over the Temperature Range 297-434K,
        R. Atkinson, D. A. Hansen, and J.N.P., J. Chem. Phys.,  63  (5),
        1703-6 (1975) (9/1/75).

   11.  Tropospheric and Stratospheric Sinks for Halocarbons:   Photo-
        oxidation, 0(1D) Atom and OH Radical Reactions, R. Atkinson,
        G. M. Brewer, J.N.P., and H. L. Sandoval, J. Geophys. Res.,
        ^(33), 5765-70  (1976)  (11/20/76).

   12.  Fluorocarbon Air Pollutants.  III.  Fluorocarbon Measurements  in
        the Lower Stratosphere, N. E. Hester, E. R. Stephens,and O.C.T.,
        draft ms.


                                                    (continued)


                                   K-67

-------
                          Table  5  (continued)


J. N. Pitts, Jr., and 0. C. Taylor, University  of  California
    at Riverside  (continued)

   13.  Ultraviolet and Infrared Absorption  Cross  Sections  of  Gas
        Phase H02N02/ R. A. Graham, A. M. Winer, and  J.N.P., Geophys.
        Res. Lett., 5  (11), 909-11  (1978).
        ^^^••M^^^M^M^M^H^BM  ^M^


R. A. Rasmussen, Oregon Graduate Center  (Formerly  Washington State
    University)

    1.  Halocarbon Measurements  in  the Alaskan  Troposphere  and Lower
        Stratosphere, E. Robinson,  R.A.R., J. Krasnec,  D. Pierotti, and
        M. Jakubovic, Atmos. Environ. , 11^ (3),  215-23 (1977).

    2.  Detailed Halocarbon Measurements Across the Alaskan Tropopause,
        E. Robinson, R.A.R., J.  Krasnec, D.  Pierotti, and M. Jakubovic,
        Geophys. Res. Lett., £ (6), 323-6  (1976).

    3.  Global and Regional N20  Measurements, R.A.R.  and D.  Pierotti,
        Pure Appl. Geophys., 116 (2-3), 405-13  (1978).

    4.  Interlaboratory Comparison  of Atmospheric  Nitrous Oxide Measure-
        ments, R.A.R. and D. Pierotti, Geophys. Res.  Lett.,  5  (5),
        353-5  (1978).                                       ***

    5.  Interlaboratory Comparison  of Fluorocarbon Measurements, R.A.R.,
        Atmos. Environ. , JL2. (12) , 2505-8  (1978) .

    6.  Nitrous Oxide Measurements  in the Eastern  Tropical  Pacific
        Ocean, D. Pierotti and R.A.R., draft ms.

    7.  F-ll and N20 in the North American Troposphere  and  Lower Strato-
        sphere, W. D. Saunders,  E.  Robinson, D. R. Cronn, R.A.R., and
        D. Pierotti, Water Air Soil Pollut., JLO. (4),  421-39  (1978).

    8.  The Sahara as a Possible Sink for Trace Gases,  0. Pierotti,
        L. E. Rasmussen, and R.A.R., Geophys. Res. Lett., 5  (12), 1001-4
        (1978).                                          "**

    9.  Concentration Distribution  of Methyl Chloride in the Atmosphere,
        R.A.R., L. E. Rasmussen, M. A. K. Khalil,  and R. W.  Dalluge,
        J. Geophys. Res., in press.

   10.  Measurements of CHFC12 (Freon 21) in Background Tropospheric
        Air, S. A. Penkett, N. J. D. Prosser, R.A.R., and M. A. K.
        Khalil, Nature, J86., 793-5  (1980)  (8/21/80).

   11.  Methyl Chloroform  (C^CC^) :  Accumulation in the Earth's Atmos-
        phere, M. A. K. Khalil and  R.A.R., draft ms.


                                                     (continued)


                                    K-68

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


R. A. Rasmussen, Oregon Graduate Center  (Formerly Washington State
    University)  (continued)

   12.  Atmospheric Halocarbons:  Measurements and Analyses of Selected
        Trace Gases, R.A.R. and M. A. K. Khalil, ms. for presentation
        at NATO Advanced Study Institute, October, 1979.

   13.  CHC1F2  (F-22) in the Earth's Atmosphere, R.A.R., M. A. K. Khalil,
        S. A. Penkett, and N. J. D. Prosser, Geophys. Res. Lett., 7  (10),
        809-12  (1980).                                            ••*'

   14.  Atmospheric Trace Gases in Antarctica, R.A.R., M. A. K. Khalil,
        and R. W. Dalluge, Science. in press.

   15.  Sources of Atmospheric Trace Gases in the Southern Hemisphere,
        M. A. K. Khalil and R.A.R., Atmos. Environ., in press.

   16.  Interlaboratory Comparison of Fluorocarbons  11, 12, Methyl
        Chloroform, and Nitrous Oxide Measurements,  R.A.R. and M. A. K.
        Khalil, Atmos. Environ., in press.

   17.  Atmospheric Measurements of CF4 and Other Fluorocarbons Contain-
        ing the CF3 Group, S. A. Penkett, N. J. D. Prosser, R.A.R.,
        and M. A. K. Khalil, J. Geophys. Res., in press.

   18.  Atmospheric Trace Gases Over China, R.A.R.,  M. A. K. Khalil, and
        J. S. Chang, draft ms.


C. Sandorfy, University of Montreal

    1.  Vacuum Ultraviolet and Photoelectron Spectra of Fluorochloro
        Derivatives of Methane, J. Doucet, P. Sauvageau, and C.S.,
        J. Chem. Phys., 58  (9), 3708-16  (1973)  (5/1/73).
        ^^^•^^•^•^•^^^••^^^^••^^"•"•^  ^^M^

    2.  Vacuum Ultraviolet Absorption Spectra of Fluoromethanes, P.
        Sauvageau, R. Gilbert, P. P. Berlow, and C.S., J. Chem. Phys.,
        59  (2) 762-5  (1973) (7/15/73).

    3.  Vacuum Ultraviolet Absorption Spectra of Chlorofluoromethanes
        from 120 to 65 nm, R. Gilbert, P. Sauvageau, and C.S., J. Chem.
        Phys., 60  (12), 4820-4  (1974)  (6/15/74).

    4.  Vacuum Ultraviolet and Photoelectron Spectra of Fluoroethanes,
        P. Sauvageau. J. Doucet, R. Gilbert, and C.S., J. Chem. Phys.,
        61  (1), 391-5  (1974) (7/1/74).

    5.  On the Hydrogen Bond Breaking Ability of Fluorocarbons Contain-
        ing Higher Halogens, T. DiPaolo and C.S., Can. J. Chem., 52  (21),
        3612-22  (1974).                                          ""*"


                                                     (continued)


                                   K-69

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


C. Sandorfy, University of Montreal  (continued)

    6.  Fluorocarbon Anaesthetics Break Hydrogen Bonds, T. DiPaolo and
        C.S., Nature, ^252., 471  (1974)  (12/6/74).

    7.  Photoelectron and Par-Ultraviolet Absorption Spectra of Chloro-
        fluoro-Derivatives of Ethane, J. Doucet, P. Sauvageau, and C.S.,
        J. Chem. Phys., $2. (2), 355-9  (1975)  (1/15/75).

    8.  Photoelectron and Par-Ultraviolet Spectra of CF3Br, CP2BrCl,
        and CF2Br2, J. Doucet, R. Gilbert, P. Sauvageau, and C.S.,
        J. Chem. Phys., _62. (2), 366-9  (1975)  (1/15/75).

    9.  Photoelectron and Vacuum Ultraviolet  Spectra of a Series of
        Fluoroethers, A. H. Hardin and C.S.,  J. Fluorine Chem., 5  (5),
        435-42  (1975).                        	  "*"

   10.  Ultraviolet Absorption of Fluorocarbons, a Review, C.S., Atmos.
        Environ., JL£  (5), 343-51  (1976).


P. M. Solomon and R. L. deZafra, State University of New York at
    Stony Brook

    1.  Chlorine Oxide in the Stratospheric Ozone Layer:  Ground-Based
        Detection and Measurement, A. Parrish, R. L. deZ., P.M.S.,
        J. W. Barrett, and E. R. Carlson, draft ms.


D. H. Stedman, University of Michigan

    1.  Measurement Techniques for the Ozone  Layer, D.H.S., Res./Dev.,
        January^ 1976, pp. 22-4, 26.


F. Stuhl, University of Bochum

    1.  The Ultraviolet Absorption of Some Halogenated Methanes and
        Ethanes of Atmospheric Interest, C. Hubrich and F.S., J. Photo-
        chem., 12^ (2) ,- 93-107  (1980).


N. D. Sze, Atmospheric & Environmental Research (Formerly Environmental
    Research & Technology, Inc.)

    1.  Measurement of Fluorocarbons 11 and 12 and Model Validation:
        An Assessment, N.D.S. and M. F. Wu, Atmos. Environ., 10 (12),
        1117-25  (1976).                                      •*"


                                                    (continued)
                                   K-70

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


N. D. Sze, Atmospheric & Environmental Research  (Formerly Environmental
    Research & Technology, Inc.(continued)

    2.  Heterogeneous Photodecomposition of Halogenated Compounds in
        the Troposphere, T. Y. Kong and N.D.S., EOS Trans. Am. Geophys.
        Union, J50. (8), 811 (1978).

    3.  Stratospheric Fluorine:  A Comparison Between Theory and Measure-
        ments, N.D.S., Geophys. Res. Lett.,^(9), 781-3  (1978).

    4.  Is CS2 a  Precursor for Atmospheric COS?  N.D.S. and M. K. W. Ko,
        Nature, 2J7JB, 731-2 (1979).

    5.  Stratospheric Sulfur Cycle:  A Theoretical Model, N.D.S. and
        M. K. W.  Ko, draft ms.

    6.  CS2 and COS in the Stratospheric Sulfur Budget, N.D.S. and
        M. K. W.  Ko, Nature, ^280, 308-10  (1979).

    7.  Coupled Effects of Atmospheric N20 and 03 on the Earth's Climate,
        W. C. Wang and N.D.S., Nature, 23,6, 589-90 (1980).

    8.  Could the Reaction of H02N02 with HO be a Sink for Stratospheric
        Odd Hydrogen?, M. K. W. Ko and N.D.S., draft ms.

    9.  Atmospheric Ozone:  Comparison of Observations with Two-Dimen-
        sional Model Calculation, M. K. W. Ko, M. Livshits, and N.D.S.,
        draft ms.


G. A. Takacs, Rochester Institute of Technology

    1.  Heats of  Formation and Bond Dissociation Energies of Some Simple
        Sulfur- and Halogen-Containing Molecules, G.A.T., J. Chem. Eng.
        Data, 23^ (2) , 174-5  (1978).

    2.  Atmospheric Photodissociation Lifetimes for Nitromethane, Methyl
        Nitrite,  and Methyl Nitrate, W. D. Taylor, T. D. Allston, M. J.
        Moscato,  G. B. Fazekas, R. Kozlowski, and G.A.T., draft ms.

    3.  Laboratory Investigations Concerning Atmospheric Chlorine, M. J.
        McClements, W. D. Taylor, M. C. Withiam, T. D. Allston,
        G. Fazekas, and -G.A.T., draft ms.


B. A. Thrush, University of Cambridge

    1.  The Rates of Reaction of H02 with HO and 02 Studied by Laser
        Magnetic  Resonance, J. P. Burrows, G. W. Harris, and B.A.T.,
        Nature, 267^, 233-4 (1977).


                                                     (continued)


                                  K-71

-------
                          Table 5  (continued)


G. C. Tiao and G. Reinael, University of Wisconsin

    1.  Statistical Analysis of Stratospheric Ozone Data for the
        Detection of Trend, G.R., G.C.T., M. N. Wang, R. Lewis,
        and D. Nychka, Atmos. Environ., in press.


R. P. Wayne, University of Oxford

    1.  Relative Rate Constants for the Reactions of 0( D) Atoms with
        Fluorocarbons and with NoO, R. G. Green and R.P.W., J. Photo-
        chem., 6u (5), 371-4  (1977).

    2.  Vacuum Ultra-violet Absorption Spectra of Halogenated Methanes
        and Ethanes, R. G. Green and R.P.W., J. Photochem., 6  (5),
        375-7 (1977).                                       *•
                                                    November 30, 1980


                                  K-72

-------
Index to Table 3 by Investigator and Project  Number
Investigator

Alyea
Project Number*
Ausloos
Bailey
Barbe
Beckman
Berger
Birks
Bonetti
Brasseur
Bruner
Buijs
Carli
Campbell
Chance

Coxon
  II
Cunnold
75-24
76-122
77-199
77-213
78-251

78-252
79-281
80-323
77-186
78-254

80-317
80-322
79-282
75-62
75-1

76-117A
76-117B
77-192
77-222
78-244

79-276
80-321
80-329
76-137
80-297

80-320
78-256
75-90
75-98
77-156

77-168
77-221
76-137
75-53
80-318

78-255
80-315
75-24
76-122
77-199
(O
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)
38
38
38
17
17

38
17,38
17,38
17
17

41
32
30
41
12

12
17
12
22
12

12
12
12
30
30

38
31
23,31
31
31

23
23
30
17
30

23
23
38
38
38
                                               (continued)
                           K-73

-------
Index to Table 3 by Investigator and Project Number
                    (continued)
Investigator

Cunnold
Project Number*
Davis
deZafra
  n
Donovan
Eggleton
Ehhalt

Ekstrom
Fehsenfeld
Girard
Goldman
Harries

Howard
  n
  n
  n
  ii
Jouve
Kaufman
  n
Knauth
Korte
Kurylo
  n
Lovelock
77-213
78-251
78-252
79-281
80-323
74-10
75-73
75-87
76-130
77-225
79-278
80-316
79-286
76-116
76-145
75-27
77-222
75-88
80-322
76-137
75-47
76-100
77-222
77-223
79-289
80-299
79-290
76-126
77-197
77-171
77-224
77-194
78-233
80-307
73-1
74-3
75-67
76-120
77-144
77-193
(0
(c)
(c)


(0
(c)
(0
(0
(c)



(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)



(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
                         17
                         17
                         38
                         17,38
                         17,38

                         24
                         24
                         24
                         36
                         36

                         36
                         36
                         18
                         24
                         32

                         32
                         22
                         32
                         32
                         30

                         25
                         13
                         22
                         13
                         14

                         25
                         33
                         18
                         18
                         25

                         25
                         18
                         14,19
                         14
                         32

                         32
                         19,33
                         26
                         19,33
                         19
                                               (continued)
                           K-74

-------
Index to Table 3 by Investigator and Project Number
                    (continued)
Investigator

Lovelock
Project Number*
Martin

Moe

Mohnen
Murcray
Nicholls
Pagano
Parzen
Phillips
Pitts
Prinn
  n
78-226
78-243
78-264
79-269
79-280
80-293
80-324
75-81
75-81-11
78-235
75-64
75-13
75-92
76-101
76-135
77-152
77-166
77-211
77-219
78-228
78-265
80-328
75-11
75-11-11
75-30b
76-106
76-106
78-241
74-2
75-12
77-190
75-24
76-122
77-199
77-213
78-251
78-252
79-281
80-323
(0
(c)
(c)




(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)


(0

(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(0
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)


                         27
                         34

                         27
                         27

                         27
                         41
                         41
                         20
                         15

                         21
                         15
                         38
                         38
                         38

                         17
                         17
                         38
                         17,38
                         17,38
                                               (continued)
                          K-75

-------
Index to Table 3 by Investigator and Project  Number
                    (continued)
Investigator

Rasmussen
  it
Project Number*
Ravishankara
Reinsel
   n
Ridley
Roscoe
   n
Sandorfy
Saykally

Shame1
Simmonds
 Skogerboe
 Solomon
 Stedman
 Stuhl
75-2
75-59
75-71
75-84
76-140
76-142
77-181
77-201
77-215
78-247
78-248
78-260
78-263
79-279
80-308
80-325
80-295
78-250
80-304
76-102A
76-102B
77-219
80-328
73-2
80-300
79-275
77-193
78-243
79-269
79-280
80-324
77-206
76-130
77-225
79-278
80-316
74-7
76-132
77-151
77-170
(c)
(C)
(C)
(C)
(C)
(C)
(0
(C)
(C)
(C)
(c)
(c)







(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)

(c)
(c)
(c)



(c)
(c)
(c)


(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
Page

 35
 35
 21
 21
 21

 27
 35
 21
 22
 27

 21
 35
 21
 21
 36

 21
 15
 41
 41
 36

 36
 34
 34
 22
 30

 22
 19
 19
 22,28
 19

 19
 28
 36
 36
 36

 36
 28
 29
 29
 15
                                               (continued)
                           K-76

-------
Indtx to Table 3 by Investigator and Project Number
                    (continued)
Investigator
Project Number*
Sze
n
M
n
n
n
Takacs
Taylor
n
Thrush
M
Tiao
n
Timmons
n
n
Traub
Watson
Wiesenfeld
n
Young
n
Zander
n
Zellner
75-32
76-115
77-173
78-234
79-273
80-311
77-196
73-3
74-2
75-58
75-58-11
78-250
80-304
76-129
77-214
78-258
80-318
78-257
76-128
77-220
75-50
75-86
76-141
78-232
77-195
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)


(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)


(c)
(c)



(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)

(c)
39
39
39
39
39
39
16
37
37
16
16
41
41
29
29
29
30
42
16
16
37
37
37
37
16
*(c)  indicates completed project
                           K-77

-------
X.  APPENDIX L
            UNCERTAINTIES - CHLOROFLUOROCARBON EFFECTS
                     AND STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
                           (SRI REPORT)
                               L-l

-------
                                                 Uncertainties
         The  following  Appendix  is  taken  from  a  report  [SRI,
1980]  of a March,  1980  workshop  run by SRI  International for the
EPA.   The  workshop was  sponsored  by EPA  to  evaluate  "...the
critical issues that are  hindering  EPA's  ability to make a fully
supportable decision on further  CFC regulations."   The principle
findings of  the  workshop  are summarized  in  the  report's Table 2
(attached) .  The full report also is  included as part of the
Du Pont submission.
                               L-2

-------
                         TABLE 2.  IMPORTANT ISSUES IN CHLOROFLUOROCARBON EFFECTS AND OZONE DEPLETION
Importance3
   Areac
                      Issue or Uncertainty0
Researchable?
Time  (years)6
High
 Releases
Identify what chemicals are likely to deplete ozone
or affect near-surface temperatures, and thus should
be assessed as to their current and future releases.

Describe how patterns of technological innovation
will change the need for CFCs and related sub-
stances and create new policy options not currently
under consideration for CFC control.

Improve accuracy of projections of future U.S.
emissions by CFCs, by source, under the assumption
of no further regulatory interventions.
Yes
                                                                                            Yes, with
                                                                                            difficulty
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            2-5
 High
Transport
  and
Chemistry
Validate models of ozone depletion against measure-
ments, with calibration as required; may be direct
measurement of ozone or measurements of ratios of
species.
Yes
High
Climate
Describe spatial and temporal variations in tem-
perature, precipitation, cloudiness, and evapo-
transpiration, leading to description of changes
in soil moisture.

Estimate synergistic effects of CFCs with CO2 on
temperature change, because increments are more
likely to be adverse if baseline is significantly
disturbed.
Yes
10
                                                                                            Yes, but not
                                                                                            under EPA
                                                                                            program
                                                                                           2-5
f
i
CO

-------
                                                     TABLE 2.   (Continued)
 Importance5
   Arear
                        Issue or Uncertainty0
Researenable?*^    Time  (years)6
High
 Health
Integrate by epidemiology the form of the relation-
ship of melanoma incidence and mortality of ultra-
violet exposures over the range possible from CFC
releases.
Yes
2-5
High
 Biology/
 Ecology
Obtain and evaluate available data on the patterns       Yes
of habits and habitats of aquatic species that
determine their exposure and susceptibility to
ultraviolet light.

Determine and explain the differences between            Yes
laboratory and field susceptibility to ultra-
violet radiation of selected crops and aquatic
species.

Determine the environmental and health consequences      Yes
of proposed substitutes for CFCs.
                 1-2
High
Economics
 f
 i
Develop a combined scientific and ethical basis
for setting discount rates for estimates of
future control costs and benefits, including
different rates for costs and benefits if
necessary.

Determine the social value placed on the respon-
sibility to future generations and the way to
treat potential catastrophic effects.

Describe the proper way to evaluate the signifi-
cance of changes (such as a large change in
average atmospheric ozone content) never before
experienced, and how society should respond
to them.
Yes
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            No

-------
                                                     TABLE 2.   (Continued)
Importance0
   Areab
                      Issue or Uncertainty0
Researchable?^    Time  (years)6
Moderate
 Releases
Improve estimates of current and future release        Yes
rates outside the United States under the assump-
tion of no further regulations.

Determine what U.S. government policy will be on       No
other issues, such as solvent use of non-CFCs.

Estimate the worldwide elasticity of demand to         Yes
CFC prices so that the response of industry to
various policy interventions can be understood
better.

Determine release rates of other pollutants that       Yes
either deplete ozone or affect the transport and
chemistry of ozone-depletors.
                 1-2
                                                                                                             2-5
Moderate
Transport
  and
Chemistry
tr"
I
Ul
Model and measure how CFCs selectively change the      Yes
temporal and spatial variations in ozone concen-
trations:  Are variations damped or accentuated?

Determine the influence of other man-made and          Yes
natural emissions on the effectiveness of
CFC ozone depletion.

Set upper bounds on the effectiveness of possible      Yes
tropospheric processes that destroy or entrap CFCs
and thus reduce their flux to the stratosphere.

Investigate the adequacies of one-dimensional and      Yes
multi-dimensional models in describing average and
spatially resolved ozone depletion.
                 5-10
                                                                                                             1-3
                                                                                                             5-10

-------
                                                     TABLE 2.   (Continued)
Importance5
  Areab
                       Issue or Uncertainty0
Researchable?d    Time  (years)6
Moderate
Climate
Identify additional chemical species that can           Yes
significantly affect the global temperature
balance and estimate their effects.

Refine our understanding of the global feedback         Yes
parameter that accounts for water vapor in the
atmosphere, albedo of clouds and surface, vertical
temperature profile and so on to determine the
temperature change equivalent to a given heat input
change.

Improve knowledge of temperature changes in the         Yes
stratosphere and consequences on weather.
                                                                                                             5-10
lYbderate
Health
Develop a biological model (experimental animal
study) for examining the melanoma dose-response
relationship, and explore the theoretical biology
implied.

Investigate the dependence of non-melanoma and
especially melanoma cancer incidence on dose-rate,
especially for very high short-term exposures.

Determine whether an average increase in UV will
push the natural variations in UV over a biological
stability level for melanoma.

Separate the effects of UV irradiation from other
causative factors, especially for melanoma.

Establish and explain the relationship of non-
melancrna skin cancer incidence to ultraviolet
exposures over the range possible from CFC
releases.
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            Not in rea-
                                                                                            sonable time
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            Yes
                 5-10
                                                                                           10
                                                                                          2-5
                                                                                          2-5

-------
                                                     TABLE 2.   (Continued)
Importance0
  Area1
                        Issue or Uncertainty0
Researchable?d    Time  (years)6
Moderate
Health
Determine the population distribution of UV doses        Yes
by geography, time, and demographic characteristics.

Describe the likely human behavioral response to         Yes
increased levels of UV and (possibly) temperature.
Moderate
                  Biology/
                  Ecology
                Describe the variability of chlorophyll (a)  dis-
                tribution in natural waters and its effect on the
                penetration of UV with depth.

                Determine the significance of shifts in ecological
                community structure to the welfare and stability
                of the human environment.

                Estimate the susceptibility of sensitive environ-
                ments (e.g., desert, tundra)  to UV increase in com-
                parison with more robust environments.

                Investigate the dependence of biological and ecolo-
               .gical effects on UV dose rates, especially to under-
                stand the significance of experiments performed at
                high rates.

                Determine sensitivity of specific economically
                important crops to UV in the laboratory and in
                the field.

                Determine sensitivity of specific crops to
                temperature changes.

                Determine sensitivity of specific aquatic
                organisms to UV.
                                                         Yes
                                                                                            Not in rea-
                                                                                            sonable time
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                                            Yes
                                                                          1-2
                                                                          2-5
                                                                                      -
                                                                                     8

-------
                                                       TABLE 2.   (Concluded)

Importance3
Moderate
Areab
Biology/
Ecology
Issue or Uncertainty0
Investigate the UV action spectra for selected
biological effects.
Researchable?°
Yes
Time
3
(years)6

                                      Determine likely adaptation of important
                                      species to increased UV.
                                                                          Yes
                                                                         10
 Moderate
Economics
Describe what kinds of control decisions are,
in practical terms, irreversible, and the
social consequences of making erroneous ones.
                          o
Develop methods for achieving equity given a
distribution of costs and benefits to
various parties, nationally or worldwide,
over time.

Predict social behavior in response to the
adverse consequences of UV and temperature
change:  Will society adapt to minimize their
severity?
Probably not
                                                                                             No
                                                                                             Yes
                                                                                           10
 aAn integrated subjective assessment of the importance of resolving the issue for decisions on CFC control.
  Both importance within the area of study and importance of the area to the.decision are included.  No significance
  is implied by the order within importance categories.

 klhe issues are roughly sorted by the area of study, but many are transdisciplinary.

 °These descriptions are necessarily brief and may omit important subleties.  See also Section 5.

 "•This judgment depends both on the length of time required for meaningful progress and the likelihood of acceptance of the
  findings.

=oeRange of time required to make significant progress in resolving the issue or reducing the uncertainty.
                                                                                                            • i
                                                                                                            sr
                                                                                                            H-
                                                                                                            3
                                                                                                            rt
                                                                                                            «•
                                                                                                            CO

-------
                                                  Bibliography
XI.   BIBLIOGRAPHY
                                                          Page
    A.  Bibliography to All Sections Except Effects
            Appendix F                                   XI-2
         [includes numbered references* 1-156]
    B.  Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-l             XI-20
         (Urbach - Skin Cancer)
         [includes numbered references* 157-169]
    C.  Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-2             XI-45
          (Klein - UV-B Measurement)
         [includes numbered references* 170-175]
    D.  Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-3             XI-46
          (Biggs - Crops)
         [includes numbered references* 176-184]
    E.  Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-4         .    XI-47
          (Damkaer - Marine)
         [includes numbered references* 185-191]
*   Copies of numbered references only appear in the following
    Bibliography Volumes:
         References    1-43   are contained in Volume  4
         References   44-115  are contained in Volume  5
         References  116-159  are contained in Volume  6
         References  160-191  are contained in Volume  7
                                 XI-1

-------
                                                  Bibliography
XI.  BIBLIOGRAPHY
    A.   Bibliography to All Sections Except Effects Appendix F

     1.    Allaby, M. and Lovelock, J. (1980).  Spray cans:  the
              threat that never was, New Scientist 87(17 July),
              212-214.
     2.    Anderson, J. G. (1976).  The absolute concentration of OH
              (X2 ) in the Earth's stratosphere, Geophys. Res.
              Lett. 3, 165-168.
     3.    Anderson, J. G., Grassl, H. J., Shetter, R. E., and
              Margitan, J. J. (1980a).  Stratospheric free chlorine
              measured by balloon-borne in situ resonance
              fluorescence, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 2869-2887.


     4.    Anderson, J. G., Weinstock, E. M., and Phillips, M. J.
              (1980b).  Free radicals  in  the stratosphere:  a review
              of recent CIO observations  (abstract), EOS 61, 1054.


     5.    Angell,  J.  K.  (1978).   Ozone trends determined  from the
              Dobson ozone network.  Air  Quality Meteorology and
              Atmospheric Ozone  ASTM  STP 653.  Morris, A. L. and
              Barras,  R.  C., ed.


     6.    Angell,  J.  K.  and Korshover, J. (1973).  Quasi-biennial
              and long-term fluctuations  in  total ozone, Mon.
              Weather  Rev. 101, 426-443.


     7.    Angell,  J.  K.  and Korshover, J. (1978).  Recent trends in
              total ozone and ozone in the 32-46 km layer, WMO No.
              511,  107-114.  Toronto,  Canada, June 26-30.


     8.    Angell,  3.  K.  and Korshover, J. (1980).  Update of ozone
              variations  through 1979, Quadrenniel International
              Ozone Symposium.  Boulder,  CO, August.


     9.    ANSI - American National Standards Institute -  (1971).
              Safety code for mechanical  refrigeration, ANSI
              B9.1-1971.


    10.    ARI - Air Conditioning  and  Refrigeration Institute -
              (1978).  The ozone controversy and its relationship to
              refrigeration and air conditioning.  Washington, D.C.,
              June.

                                 XI-2

-------
                                              Bibliography


11.    Ausloos, P., Rebbert, R. E., and Glasgow, L. C.  (1977).
          Photodecompositon of chloromethanes adsorbed on silica
          surfaces, J. of Res, of National Bureau of Standards
          82, 1-8.


12.    Ausloos, P. and Rebbert, R. E.  (1980).  Decomposition of
          chloromethanes adsorbed on silica surfaces.  Final
          Report to CMA.


       Bailey, M.  J.  (1979).  Costs and benefits of chloro-
          fluoromethane control, ir\_ Some economic aspects of
          controlling ozone depletion,  Cumberland,  J. H. ,
          Principal Investigator.  Report to EPA, EPA Grant
          R805411-01, October.


13.    Bailey, M.  J.  (1980).  Uncertainties and benefit-cost
          analysis of CFC control - Final Report to EPA.  August.


       Barker, J.  R., Trevor, P. L., and Black, G.  (1980).
          Measurements of the rate of OH + H02N02 vs.
          temperature, American Geophysical Union Fill Meeting.
          San Francisco,  CA, December 8-12.


14.    Battelle (1980).  Energy consequences of chlorofluoro-
          carbon regulation.  Columbus, OH.


       Berg, w. w. (1980).  A proposal to measure total
          stratospheric chlorine, bromine, iodine and related
          species.  Private communication to CMA.


15.    Block, B. P. - Pennwalt - (1980).  Letter to Jellinek,
          S. D., - EPA - dated April 11.


16.    Blum, B. -  EPA - (1980).  Press  conference statement by
          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at the
          International Meeting on Chlorofluorocarbons,  Oslo,
          Norway,  April 15.


17.    Brasseur, G. (1980).  Analysis  of recent reports on the
          effect of Chlorofluorocarbons on atmospheric ozone.
          Report to the commission of the European  communities.
          Brussels, Belgium, June.


18.    Brenner, M. H. (1976).  Estimating the Social Cost of
          National Economic Policy: implications for mental and
          physical health and criminal aggression.
          GPO-052-070-03745-8, Baltimore, MD.  (Also reviewed in
          US News and World Report, June 23, 1980,  pp. 68-69 -
          The Tragedy of Unemployment).

                             XI-3

-------
                                              Bibliography


19.    Burnett, C. R. and Burnett, E.  8.  (1979).   Spectroscopic
          measurements of the vertical abundance  of hydroxyl
          (OH) in the Earth's atmosphere  (abstract),  EOS 60,  336.


20.    Burrows, J. P., Cliff, D.  I.,  Harris,  G. W., Thrush,
          B. A., and Wilkinson,  J. P.  T.  (1978a).   Laboratory
          studies of the reactions of  hydroperoxy  radicals
          (H02) having stratospheric  importance.   WMO No.  511,
          25-28.  Toronto,  Canada, June 26-30.


21.    Burrows, J. P., Harris,  G.  W.f  and Thrush,  B.  A.
          (1978b).  Rates of reaction  of  H02  with  OH and 0
          studied by laser  magnetic resonance,  Nature 267,
          233-234.
22.     Callis, L.  B.  and Natarajan,  M.  (1980).   Stratospheric
          ozone and temperature perturbations:   an examination
          of synergistic effects,  Quadrennial International
          Ozone Symposium, Boulder,  CO,  August  4-9.


       CAP Associates (1980).   Private  communication to CMA.


23.     Chapman, S. (1930).  A  theory of upper-atmosphere ozone,
          Mem. R.  Meteorol.  Soc.  3_,  103-125.


       Chang, J. (1980).  Private  communication,  list of revised
          reaction rates sent  to  C.  Miller -  Du Pont - for 1981
          NASA Workshop.


24.     Chang, J. S. and Kaufman,  F.  (1978).   Upper bound and
          probable value of the rate constant of the reaction OH
          + H02-*-H20 + '02,  J.  Phys. Chem. 02,  1683-1686.


25.     CMA - Chemical Manufacturers  Association - (1980a).  An
          assessment  of the  chlorofluorocarbon-ozone problem.
          CMA Fluorocarbon Project Panel,  Washington, D.C.,
          June.  (Submitted  to  EPA July 1).


26.     CMA - Chemical Manufacturers  Association - (1980b).
          World production and  release  of  chlorofluorocarbons 11
          and 12 through 1979.   Washington,  D.C., May.


       CMA - Chemical Manufacturers  Association - (1980c).
          Meeting of  the Fluorocarbon Project Panel  of the
          Chemical Manufacturers  Association  in Washington,
          D.C., August 26, attended  by  H.  wiser - EPA.  EPA has
          a standing  invitation to such  meetings.

                             XI-4

-------
                                              Bibliography
27.    CMA - Chemical Manufacturers Association - (1980d).
          Fluorocarbon Research Program:  Effect of
          chlorofluorocarbons on the atmosphere.  Revision  #14.
          Washington, D.C., November.

28.    CMA - Chemical Manufacturers Association - (1980e).
          Research program directed by the Chemical
          Manufacturers Association Fluorocarbon Project Panel,
          progress report.  Submission to UNEP.  Washington,
          D.C.,  July.


       CODATA (1980).  Evaluated kinetic and photochemical  data
          for atmospheric chemistry (in press).


29.    Cook, J.  L., Ennis, C. A., Leek, T. J.,  and Birks,  J.  W.
          (1980).  Studies of reactions of importance in the
          stratosphere IV.  Rate constant for the reaction  Cl +•
          HOC1—>- HC1 + CIO over the temperature range
          243-365°K, J. Chem. Phys. (in press).


30.    Cox,  R. A. and Burrows, J. P. (1979).  Kinetics and
          mechanism of the disproportionation of H02 in the
          gas phase, J. Phys. Chem. 83, 2560-2568.


31.    Crescentini, G. and Bruner, F. (1979).  Evidence for the
          presence of Freon 21 in the atmosphere, Nature 279,
          311-312.
32.    Crescentini, G. and Bruner, F.  (1980).   Occurrence of
          F-21 (CHC12F) in the troposphere,  Annali di Chimica,
          in press.


33.    Cronn, D.  R. and Harsch, D. E.  (1979).   Determination of
          atmospheric halocarbon concentrations by gas
          chromatography - mass spectrometery,  Anal.  Lett.  12,
          1489-1496.
34.    Cunnold, D., Alyea,  F.  N.,  and Prinn,  R.  G.  (1978).   A
          methodology for determining the atmospheric lifetime
          of fluorocarbons,  J.  Geophys.  Res.  83,  5493-5500.


       Cunnold, D. M. (1980).   Comments  made  at  CMA-EPA
          meeting.  Washington,  D.C., September  9.


35.    DeKany, J.  P. - EPA  - (1980).   Alternatives  to chloro-
          fluorocarbons:  the  technical  perspective.   Speech  at
          the conference on  CFCs.   Oslo,  Norway,  April 14-16.

                             XI-5

-------
                                              Bibliography


36.    Demore, w. B. (1979).  Reaction of H02 with 03 and
          the effect of water vapor on HO-2 kinetics,  J.  Phys.
          Chem. 83, 1113-1118.
           /

       Demore, W. B. (1980).  Private communication.


37.    DOE - Department of Energy - (1980).   Environmental
          assessment,  DOE/CS-0168.   Washington,  D.C.,  June.


38.    Du Pont (1978).   Information requested by the
          Environmental Protection  Agency on nonaerosol
          propellant uses of fully  halogenated halocarbons.
          Submission to EPA.  Wilmington, DE,  March.


39.    Du Pont (1979a).  Nonaerosol propellant uses of fully
          halogenated  halocarbons.   Submission No.  2  (to EPA).
          Wilmington,  DE, June.

40.    Du Pont (1979b).  The National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
          and U.K. Department of the Environment (DOE) reports
          (a comparison).  Wilmington, DE, November.


41.    Du Pont (1980a).  Comments on the National Academy of
          Sciences' Report:  "Stratospheric  ozone depletion by
          halocarbons:   chemistry and transport."  Submission to
          EPA.  Wilmington, DE,  January.


42.    Du Pont (1980b).  Comments on the December 1979 report by
          the Committee on the Impacts of Stratospheric  Change
          (CISC) of the National Academy of  Sciences.
          Submission to EPA.  Wilmington, DE,  May.

43.    Du Pont (1980c).  The Rand Corporation [draft]  report,
          "Economic implications of regulating
          chlorofluorocarbon emissions from  non-propellant
          applications - a critique."  Submission to  EPA.
          Wilmington,  DE, March.


44.    Du Pont (1980d).  The Du  Pont development program on
          alternatives to commercial chlorofluorocarbons - an
          update.  Submission to EPA.  Wilmington,  DE, March.


45.    Du Pont (1980e).  Comments on the December 1979 report by
          the National Academy of Sciences'  Committee  on
          Alternatives for the Reduction of  Chlorofluorocarbon
          Emissions (CARCE).  Submission to  EPA.  Wilmington,
          DE, April.

                             XI-6

-------
                                              Bibliography


       Du Pont (1980f).   Meeting between EPA and Du Pont on the
          status of Du Pont's research on CFC alternatives.  At
          EPA, Washington, D.C., March 19.


46.    Du Pont (1980g).   An overview of industry efforts to
          investigate the potential for chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)
          emission reduction.  Submission to EPA.  Wilmington,
          DE, February.


47.    EEC - European Economic Community - (1980).   Report of
          the Commission of the European Communities to the
          Council:  Chlorofluorocarbons on the environment.
          Brussels, Belgium, June.


48.    Ehhalt, D. H. (1978).  In situ measurements  of
          stratospheric trace constituents, Rev. Geophys. Space
          Phys. 16, 217-224.


49.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980a).
          Environmental news release.  Washington,  D.C.,
          Tuesday, April 15.


50.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980b).
          Proceedings of the conference on methyl chloroform and
          other halocarbon pollutants, EPA-600/9-80-003,
          Research Triangle Park,  NC, January.  (Meeting date
          February 27-28, 1979).


51.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980c).
          Environmental News Release, April 15.   (Reports on
          [Blum, 1980]).


52.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980d).
          Jellinek, S. D. to Costle, D.  Decision memorandum -
          nonaerosol uses of Chlorofluorocarbons.  Washington,
          D.C., undated.


53.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980e).
          Development plan, Chlorofluorocarbons  - Phase II.
          Washington, D.C., undated.


54.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980f).  Toxics
          Information Series:  CFCs, ozone, and  health.  OPA
          1240/0.  Washington, D.C., August.


55.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980g).
          Environmental News Release.  Washington,  D.C.,
          Wednesday, October 8.


                             XI-7

-------
                                              Bibliography
56.    EPA - Environmental Protection Agency - (1980h).
          Jellinek, S. D. to the Administrator.  Advance Notice
          of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR):  Proposed production
          restriction for chlorofluorocarbons — ACTION
          MEMORANDUM.  Washington,  D.C., September 10.


57.    Evans, W. F. J., Kerr, J. B., Wardle, 0. I.,  McConnell,
          J. C., Ridley, B.  A., and Schiff,  H. I.  (1976).
          Intercomparison of NO, N02, and HN03 measurements
          with photochemical theory, Atmosphere 14,  189-198.


58.    Glasgow, L. C., Jesson,  J. P., and Ward, R. B.  (1977).
          Comment on "Urban-nonurban relationships of
          halocarbons	" [see Singh e_t al. (1977)],  Atm.
          Environ. 11, 962.


59.    Goldan, P. D., Kuster, W. C. , Albritton, 0. L., and
          Schmeltekopf, A. L.,  (1980).  Stratospheric  CFC13,
          CF2C12, and N20 height profile measurements  at
          several latitudes, J. Geophys. Res. 85,  413-423.


60.    Graham, R. A., Winer, A. M., and Pitts, J.  N.  (1978).
          Ultraviolet and infrared absorption cross  sections  of
          gas phase H02N02,  Geophys. Res. Lett. 5_, 909-911.


61.    Groves, K. S. and Tuck,  A. F. (1979).  Simultaneous
          effects of C02 and chlorofluoromethanes  on
          stratospheric ozone,  Nature 280, 127-129.


62.    Hack, W., Preuss, A.  W., and Wagner,  H. G.  (1978).
          Messung der Geschindigkeit der Reaction  von  OH-  und
          H02- Radikalen mit Hilfe der Laser-Magnetischen
          Resonans, Ber. Bunsenges., Phys. Chem.  82,  1167-1171.


63.    Haigh, J. D. and Pyle, J. A. (1980).   Ozone perturbations
          due to chlorofluorocarbons and carbon dioxide  studied
          in a two-dimensional  dynamical-radiative-photochemical
          model, Quadrennial International Ozone Symposium.
          Boulder, CO, August 4-9.


64.    Halter, P. W. - Du Pont  - (1980).  Letter to DeKany,
          J. P. - EPA - dated May 15.  (Accompanying Ou  Pont,
          1980b).

                             XI-8

-------
                                              Bibliography


65.    Hamilton, E. J., Jr. and Lii, R. R.  (1977).  The
          dependence on H2o and on NH3 of the kinetics of
          the self-reaction of HO-2 in the gas-phase formation
          of HO-2.H20 and HO?.NH3 complexes, Int. J.
          Chem. Kinetics. .IX, 875-885.      	


       Handler, P. (1980).  Interview with American Council on
          Science and Health (ACSH).  Reported in  ACSH News and
          Views H5), 2.


       Hapka, G. A. - Du Pont - (1980).  Private communications
          with EPA between October 1 and December  15.
66.    Harries, J. E. (1978).  Ratio of HN03 to N02
          concentrations in  the daytime stratosphere, Nature
          274, 235-236.


67.    Hill, w. J. and Sheldon, P. N. (1975).  Statistical
          modeling of total  ozone measurements with  an example
          using data from Arosa, Switzerland, Geophys. Res.
          Lett. 2, 541-544.


68.    Hill, W. J., Sheldon, P. N., and Tiede, J. 0.  (1977).
          Analyzing worldwide  total ozone  for trends, Geophys.
          Res. Lett. 4_, 21-24.


69.    Hochanadel, C. J., Ghormley, J. A.,  and Ogren, P.  J.
          (1972).  Absorption  spectum and  reaction kinetics of
          the  H02 radical in the gas phase, J. Chem.  Phys. 56,
          4426-4432.


70.    Horvath, J. J. and Mason, C. J. (1978).  Nitric oxide
          mixing ratios near the stratopause measured by  a
          rocket-borne chemiluminescent detector, Geophys. Res.
          Lett. 5., 1023-1026.


       Howard, C. J. (1977).   A proposal for the development  of
          a technique for measuring the total chlorine content
          of  air. Submitted  to Chemical Manufacturers
          Association.
       Howard, C. J. (1980).  CMA Fluorocarbon Project Panel
          science review with EPA.  Washington, O.C.,
          September 9.

                             XI-9

-------
                                              Bibliography
71.     IMOS (1975).   Report of Federal Task Force on Inadvertant
          Modification of the Stratosphere (IMOS);
          Fluorocarbons and the Environment.   Washington,  D.C.,
          June.
72.     Inside EPA (1980).   Report on discussions  between  EPA
          staff and Administrator Douglas  Costle,  ir± Inside  EPA,
          p.  8, April 25.


73.     Jellinek,  S. D.  - EPA - (1980a).   Letter  to Halter, P.  W.
          - Du Pont - and to other addressees, dated April 2.


74.     Jellinek,  S. D.  - EPA - (1980b).   On  the  inevitability  of-
          being wrong.   Speech prepared  for  a New  York  Academy
          of  Sciences workshop on managing risk  assessments.
          Reported in Toxic Materials News,  p. 90, March  19.


75.     Jellinek,  S. D.  - EPA - (1980c).   Letter  to members of
          Congress, October 16,  and attachments  thereto:  EPA
          efforts to curb CFC emissions.   Summary  of the  major
          scientific reports (Appendix 1), and International
          activities (Appendix 2).


76.     Jesson, J. P. (1980).  Release of industrial halocarbons
          and tropospheric budget, Proceedings of  the NATO
          Advanced Study Institute on Atmospheric  Ozone;  Its
          Variation and Human Influences,  FAA-EEE-80-20,  373-396.


77.     Johnston,  H. (1971).  Reduction of  stratospheric ozone  by
          nitrogen oxide catalysts from  supersonic transport
          exhaust, Science 173,  517-522.


78.     Johnston,  D. A.  (1980).  Volcanic contribution of
          chlorine to the stratosphere:   more significant to
          ozone than previously estimated, Science 209, 491-493.


79.     Keyser, L. F. (1980).  Absolute rate  constant of the
          reaction OH + H202—^H02 + H20  from 245 to
          423°K,  J. Phys.  Chem.  84, 1659-1663.
                            XI-10

-------
                                              Bibliography
80.    Kley, D., Stone, F. J., Henderson, VK.  R., Drummond,
          J. W.  , Harrop, W. J., Schmeltekopf,  A. L.,  Thompson,
          T. L., and Winkler, R. H. (1979).  In situ
          measurements of the mixing ratio of water vapor in the
          stratosphere, J. Atmos. Sci. 36, 2513-2524.


       Kurylo, M. J. (1980).  Private communication.


81.    Leek, T.  J. , Cook, J. L., and Birks, J. W. (1980).
          Studies of reactions of importance in the
          stratosphere.  III. Rate constant and products of the
          reaction between CIO and H02 radicals at 298°K, J_._
          Chem.  Phys.. 72, 2364-2373.


82.    Leu, M. T. (1980).  Product distribution for the reaction
          of H02 with CIO, Geophys. Res.  Lett. 7_, 173-175.


83.    Leu, M. T. and Lin, C. L. (1979).   Rate constants of the
          reactions of OH with CIO, Cl2,  and C120 at  298°K,
          Geophys. Res. Lett. 6, 425-428.


84.    Lii, R. R., Gorse, R. A., Jr., Sauer,  M. C.,  Jr., and
          Gordon, S. (1979).  Negative activation energy for the
          self-reaction of H02 in the gas phase.  Dimerization
          of H02-  J. Phys. Chem. 83, 1803-1804.


85.    Littlejohn, D. and Johnston, H. S. (1980).  Rate constant
          for the reaction of hydroxyl radicals and peroxynitric
          acid (abstract), EOS 61, 966.


86.    Loewenstein, M., Starr, W. L., and Murcray, D. G.
          (1978).  Stratospheric NO and HN03 observations in
          the Northern Hemisphere for three seasons,  Geophys.
          Res. Lett. 5_, 531-535.


87.    Mader, R. P. (1978).  Economic control:  The next stage
          in fluorocarbon regulation?  Report  of interview  with
          Douglas Hale, EPA, ir\ Airconditioning & Refrigeration
          Business, 57-58, February.


88.    Margulis, L. (1980).  Letter to Ward,  R. B. -  Du Pont -
          dated  January 17.  Reproduced in [Du Pont,  1980b,
          p. 15].

                             XI-11

-------
                                              Bibliography


89.    Marinelli, W. J., Nelson, H. H.,  and Johnston, H. S.
          (1980).  Kinetics and product  yield of the reaction HO
          + HN03 —*-H20 + N03 (abstract), EOS 61., 966.


90.    Hasten, C. N. - Du Pont - (1980).   Letter to Jellinek,
          S. D. - EPA - dated June 16,  and accompanying
          submission:  Some concerns with recent EPA
          communications on the chlorofluorocarbon/ozone issue.
91.    Menzies, R. T. (1979).   Remote measurements of CIO in the
           stratosphere,  Geophys.  Res.  Lett.  6_,  151-154.


92.    Miller, A. J., Nagatani, R. M.,  Laver,  J.  D.,  and  Korty,
          B. (1979).   Utilization  of 100 mb mid-latitude  height
          fields as an indicator of sampling effects  on total
          ozone variations,  Mon. Weather Rev.  107, 782-787.


93.    Miller, C. , Steed, J.  M. , Filkin, D. L.,  and Jesson,
          J. P. (1980a).   Two-dimensional model  calculations of
          stratospheric HC1  and CIO, Nature 288,  461-464.


94.    Miller, C., Steed, J.  M., Filkin, D. L.,  and Jesson,
          J. P. (1980b).   A  two-dimensional model of
          stratospheric chemistry  and transport  (in preparation),


95.    Miller, C. , Steed, J.  M., Filkin, D. L.,  and Jesson,
          J. P. (1980c).   The  fluorocarbon ozone  theory - VII.
          one dimensional modeling - an assessment of
          anthropogenic perturbations,  Atmos.  Environ,  (in
          press).


96.    Molina, M. J., Rowland,  F.  S., Chou, C. C., Smith,  *.  S.
          Ruiz, N. V., Crescentini, G., and Millstein,  R.
          (1976).  Atmospheric  chemistry of several
          chlorofluorocarbon  compounds.  Fluorocarbons  21, 22,
          31, 13, 113, 114 and  115.  Abstracts from 12th
          International Symposium on Free Radicals, Laguna
          Beach, CA.


97.    Molina, M. J., Molina,  L. T., and Ishiwata, T.  (1980).
          Kinetics of the CIO  + N02 + M reaction.   14th
          Informal Conference  on Photochemistry,  Newport  Beach,
          CA, March 30-April  3.

                            XI-12

-------
                                               Bibliography


 98.    Molina, L. T. and Molina, M. J.  (1980a).   Ultraviolet
           absorption cross sections of  H02NQ.2 vapor.   14th
           Informal Conference on Photochemistry,  Newport Beach,
           CM, March 30-April 3.


 99.    Molina, L. T. and Molina, M. J.  (1980b).   U.V.  absorption
           cross-section of HOoNO^,  Upper Atmospheric
           Programs Bull. 80(1),  4.


100.    Molina, M. J. and Rowland,  F.  S.  (1974).   Stratospheric
           sink for chlorofluoromethanes : chlorine atom-catalyzed
           destruction of ozone,  Nature  249,  810-812.


101.    Muir, W. R. - EPA - (1980).   Letter to Block,  B.  P. -
           Pennwalt Corp. - dated June 23.   (Response  to  [Block,
           1980]).


102.    Murcray, D. G.,  Williams, J. W.,  Barker, D.  B., Goldman,
           A., Bradford, C.,  and  Cook, G.  (1978).   Measurements
           of constituents of interest in the photochemistry of
           the ozone layer using  infrared techniques,  WMO No.
           511, 61-68.  Toronto,  Canada,  June 26-30.


        Murcray, D. G. (1980).   Private communication.


103.    NAS - National Academy  of Sciences  -  (1976).   Halo-
           carbons:  effects  on stratospheric ozone.   Washington,
           D.C.
        NAS - National Academy of Sciences  -  (1979a).   Report  of
           the Panel on Stratospheric Chemistry  and  Transport:
           "Stratospheric ozone depletion by  halocarbons:
           Chemistry and Transport."    Washington, D.C.


        NAS - National Academy of Sciences  -  (1979b).   Report  of
           the Committee on Impacts of Stratospheric Change, jm
           Protection against  depletion of  stratospheric ozone by
           chlorofluorocarbons.  Washington,  D.C.


104.     NAS - National Academy of Sciences  -  (1979c).   Carbon
           dioxide and climate:  a scientific assessment.
           Washington, D.C.

                             XI-13

-------
                                               Bibliography
        NAS - National Academy of Sciences -  (1979d).  Report of
           the Committee on Alternatives for  the Reduction of
           Chlorofluorocarbon Emissions, in Protection against
           depletion of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluoro-
           carbons.  Washington, D.C.
105.    NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration -
           (1977).  Chlorofluoromethanes and the stratosphere.
           NASA RP-1010.  Washington, D.C.
        NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration -
           (1979).  The stratosphere: present and future.  NASA
           RP-1049.
106.     Nicolet, M. (1980).  The mesospheric and stratospheric
           absorption of the solar ultraviolet radiation,
           Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on
           Atmospheric Ozone:  Its Variation and Human
           Influences, FAA-EE-80-20, 647-688.


107.     Noxon, J. F. (1979).  Stratospheric N02, global
           behavior, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 5067-5076.


108.    - N.Y.  Times (1980).   New York Times, October 29.


109.     OECD - Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
           Development - (1980).  Report on Chlorofluorocarbons
           Environment Committee, ENV(80)32, Paris, France,
           October 30.
110.     Pagano, M. and Parzen, E. (1975).  Time series modeling of
           total ozone measurements, Technical Report 35, Stat.
           Sci., SUNY at Buffalo, NY.


111.     Parrish, A., deZafra, R. L., Solomon, P. M., Barrett,
           J. W., and Carlson, E. R. (1980).  Chlorine oxide in
           the stratospheric ozone layer:  ground-based detection
           and measurement (Science, in press).


112.     Penkett, S. A., Prosser, N. J. D., Rasmussen, R. A., and
           Khalil, M. A. K. (1980).  Measurements of CHFC12 in
           background tropospheric air, Nature 286, 793-795.

                              XI-14

-------
                                               Bibliography


113.     Penner, J. E.  (1980a).   Increases in CO-2 and
            chlorofluoromethanes:   coupled effects on
           stratospheric ozone, Quadrennial International Ozone
           Symposium,  Boulder,  CO, August 4-9.


114.     Penner, J. E.  (1980b).   The effect of increased 00-2 on
           atmospheric 03 (abstract),  American  Geophysical Fall
           Meeting.  San Francisco, CA, December 8-12.


115.     Prasad, S. S.  (1980).  Possible existence and chemistry of
           C10-02 in the stratosphere,  Nature 285, 152-154.


116.     Prasad, S. S.  and Burton,  P. G. (1979).   Possible
           existence and role of excited ozone  precursors in the
           stratosphere, Planet. Space  Sci. 27,  411-417.


117.     Prather, M. J.,  McElroy, M. B., Wofsy,  S. C.,. and Logan,
           J. A. (1979).  Stratospheric chemistry:  multiple
           solutions,  Geophys.  Res. Lett. 6_, 163-164.


118.     Pyle, J. A. and Derwent, R. G.  (1980).   Possible  ozone
           reductions  and UV changes at the Earth's surface,
           Nature 286, 373-375.


119.     Pyle, J. A. and Rogers, C. F.  (1980a).   Stratospheric
           transport by stationary planetary waves - the
           importance  of chemical  processes, Quart. J.  R. Met.
           Soc. 106, 421-446.


120.     Pyle, J. A. and Rogers, C. F.  (1980b).   A modified
           diabatic circulation model for stratospheric tracer
           transport,  Nature 287,  711-714.


121.     Rand Corporation (1979).  Working draft:  Economic
           implications of regulating chlorofluorocarbon
           emissions from nonpropellant applications.
           WD-348-EPA.  Santa Monica,  CA.


        Rand Corporation (1980).  Final report:   Economic
           implications of regulating chlorofluorocarbons
           emissions from nonaerosol applications.  R-2524-EPA.
           Santa Monica, CA.

                             XI-15

-------
                                               Bibliography
122.    Rasmussen, R. A., Harsch, D. E.,  Sweeney, P.  H.,  Krasnec,
           J. P., and Cronn, D.  R. (1977).  Determination of
           atmospheric halocarbons by a temperature-programmed
           gas chromatographic freezeout  concentration method, 3.
           Air Pollution Control Assn.  2_7, 579-581.


123.    Rasmussen, R. A., Khalil, M. A.  K.,  Penkett,  S.  A.,  and
           Prosser,  N. J. D. (1980).  CHC1F2 (F-22)  in the
           Earth's atmosphere, Geophys.  Res. Lett.  7_,  809-812.


124.    Ravishankara, A. R.  and  Wine, P.  H.  (1980).   A laser
           flash photolysis-resonance fluorescence  kinetics  study
           of the reaction C1(2P) + CH4—>-CH3 + HC1, J^
           Chem. Phys. 72, 25-30.


125.    Reed, R. J.  and German,  K. E. (1965).   A contribution to
           the problem of stratospheric  diffusion by  large-scale
           mixing, Mon. Weather  Rev. 93,  313-321.


126.    Reinsel, G. ,  Tiao, G.  C., Wang,  M. N.,  Lewis,  R.,  and
           Nychka, D. (1980).  Statistical analysis  of
           stratospheric ozone data for  the  detection  of  trends,
           Atmospheric Environ,  (in press).


127.    Robbins, D.  E. and Stolarski, R.  S.  (1976).   Comparison
           of stratospheric  ozone destruction  by fluorocarbons
           11, 12, 21 and 22,  Geophys.  Res.  Lett. 2 (10).  603-606.


128.    St.  John, D.  S. (1980a).   Time  trend analysis  of  ozone
           measurements, Quadrenniel International  Ozone
           Symposium, Boulder, CO, August.


        St.  John, D.  S. (1980b).   Time  trend analysis  of  ozone
           measurements, Symposium on Statistics and  the
           Environment, Washington, D.C., October.


129.    St.  John, D.  S., Bailey,  S. P.,  Fellner, W.  H., Minor,
           J. N., and Snee,  R. N. (1980).  Time series search for
           trend in total ozone  measurements (submitted  for
           publication).


130.    SCI  - Systems Control  Inc. - (1978).  Final  report:
           Technology assessment of the  fluorocarbon/ozone
           depletion  problems.  For National Science  Foundation,
           Grant No.  ERS-77-09248.  Palo  Alto,  CA,  October.

                              XI-16

-------
                                               Bibliography


        Seigneur,  C.,  Caram,  H.,  and Carr,  R.  W.,  Jr.  (1977).
           Atmospheric diffusion  and chemical  reaction of the
           chlorofluoromethanes  CHFC12 and  CHF2C1,  Atmos.
           Environ. 1, 205-215.


131.     Setlow, R. B.  (1974).  The wavelengths in  sunlight
           effective in producing skin cancer:  a  theoretical
           analysis, Proc.  Nat.  Acad.  Sci.  71, 3363-3366.


132.     Singh, H.  B.,  Salas,  L.,  Shigeishi,  H.,  and Crawford,  A.
           (1977).  Urban-nonurban relations of halocarbons,
           SFg, N20, and other atmospheric  trace
           constituents, Atmospheric Environ.  11,  819-828.


133.     Smith, w.  S.,  Jr. (1978).  Uncertainties in evaluated
           atmospheric rate constants, WHO  No. 511, 37-46.
           Toronto, Canada, June 26-30.


134.     SPI - Society of the Plastics Industry - (1980).
           Urethane Division Bulletin U-109:  The  importance of
           chlorofluorocarbons and polyurethane foams.  New  York,
           NY, March.

135.     SRI (1980).  Uncertainties in chlorofluorocarbon  effects
           and stratospheric ozone - report of a workshop
           (prepared for EPA).  Menlo Park,  CA,  July.


136.     Sridharan, U.  C., Reimann, B., and  Kaufman, F. (1980).
           Kinetics of the reaction OH + ^2Q2—**" H02  +
           H20, J. Chem. Phys. 73, 1286-1293.


137.     Steed, J.  M. ,  Miller, C., St.  John,  D. S.f  Filkin, D.  L.,
           and Jesson, J. P.  (1980).  A two-dimensional model
           assessment of stratospheric ozone perturbations due  to
           volcanic activity (in preparation);


138.     Stimpfle,  R. M., Perry,  R. A., and  Howard,  C.  J.  (1970).
           Temperature dependence of the reaction  of CIO  and
           H02 radicals, J. Chem. Phys. 71_,  5183-5190.


        Stolarski, R.  S. (1980).   Comments  made at  meeting of  CMA
           with EPA, September 9.


139.     Stolarski, R.  S. and Cicerone, R. J. (1974).
           Stratospheric chlorine: a possible  sink  for ozone,
           Can. J. Chem. 52,  1610-1615.


        Sze,  N. D. (1979).   Private communication  to R. Orfeo  -
           Allied  Chemical Company - August  29.

                              XI-17

-------
                                               Bibliography
        Tiao, G. C.  (1980).   CMA Fluorocarbon Project Panel
           science review with EPA.   Washington,  D.C.,
           September 9.


140.     Tiede,  J. J.,  Sheldon, P.  N., and Hill,  w.  J. (1979).
           Ozone trend detectability:  update and discussion,
           Atmospheric Environ.  13,  999-1003.


141.     Trevor, P. L. , Chang,  J. S., and Barker,  J.  R.  (1980).
           Kinetics  of some  biomolecular reactions  of pernitric
           acid (H02N02), 14th Informal Conference  on
           Photochemistry,  Newport Beach, CA, March  30-April  3.


142.     UK DOE  - United  Kingdom  Department of the Environment  -
           (1979).  Chlorofluorocarbons and their effect  on
           stratospheric ozone.   (Pollution Paper 15).   London,
           England.


143.     UNEP -  United  Nations  Environment Programme  - (1979).
           Report of the 3rd Session of the Coordinating
           Committee on  the  ozone  layer.  Paris,  France,
           November  20-23.

144.     Update  (1977).  Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update:   The
           fluorocarbon  ozone  issue.  Du Pont, Wilmington, DE,
           September.

145.     Update  (1978).  Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update:   An interim
           summary.   Du  Pont,  Wilmington, DE, October.

146.     Update  (1980a).   Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update:   CFC users
           and  producers assess  NAS report impact.   Du Pont,
           Wilmington, DE,  January.

147.     Update  (1980b).   Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update:   Industry
           reaction  to important reports needed.   Du Pont,
           Wilmington, DE,  April.

148.     Update  (1980c).   Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update:   The Du  Pont
           development program on alternatives to commercial
           Chlorofluorocarbons.   Du Pont, Wilmington, DE, June.

149.     Update  (1980d).   Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update:
           Energy-saving contributions of Chlorofluorocarbons
           (CFCs) detailed in  Battelle research study.   Du  Pont,
           Wilmington, DE,  July.

150.     Update  (1980e).   Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update:   The
           chlorofluorocarbon/ozone depletion theory - a status
           report.  Du Pont, Wilmington, DE, October.

                              XI-18

-------
                                               Bibliography


151.     Upper Atmospheric Programs Bulletin  (1980).   Total
           chlorine measurements,  80(5),  3.


152.     Ward, R. B. - Du Pont - (1979).   Letter to Klauder,  D.  -
           EPA - dated November 19,  and  accompanying submission:
           The fluorocarbon industry research program and current
           uncertainties in the ozone depletion theory.
           Wilmington, DE.


        Watson,  G.  S. (1980).  Private communication to  CMA.

153.     Watson,  R.  T. (1980).  What  is the current status of
           atmospheric photochemistry?  Report to  CMA.


154.     Wellford,  S.  D.  - EPA - (1980).   Letter to Representative
           Olympia  Snow, September 22.  Similar mailings have
           been  made  routinely to  Members of Congress.


        Wilson,  E.  B., Jr.  (1952).  An Introduction  to Scientific
           Research.   McGraw-Hill, New York,  NY.


155.     Wine, P. H. ,  Ravishankara, A.  R., Kreutter,  N. M., Shah,
           R. C., Nicovich, J.  M. , Thompson,  R.  L.,  and  Weubbles,
           D. 0. (1980).  Rate of  reaction of OH with HN03, 0^
           Geophys. Res, (in press).


156.     Wofsy, S. C.  and McElroy,  M.  B.  (1974).  HOX,  NOX and
           C10X:  their  role in atmospheric  photochemistry,
           Can.  J.  Chem. 5_2, 1582-1591.


        Wuebbles, D.  J.  (1980). Private  communications  with
           J. M. Steed - Du Pont.
                             XI-19

-------
                                                                          Bibliography
    B.   Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-l  (Urbach - Skin Cancer).






        Anaise,  D. ,  Steinitz,  R.  and Ben  Hur,  N.   Solar radiation:  A possible




            etiological  factor in malignant melanoma in Israel.




            42:299-304,  1978.




        Andersen, D.  E.,  Smith,  L.,  Jr. and McBride,  C.  M.  Hereditary aspects




            of malignant melanoma.  J. Am. Med. Assoc. 200:741-746, 1967.




        Bahn, A. K., Rosenwaike, I. et al.   Melanoma after exposure   to   PCBs.




            N. Engl. J. Med. 259:450, 1976.




        Bain,  J.  and  Rush,  H.  P.   Carcinogenesis with  UV radiation  of wave-




            lengths 2800-3400 A.  Cancer Res. 3:425-430, 1943.




        Bakes,  L.  and  MacMillan,  A.  L.   Malignant  melanoma in  East  Anglia,




            England.  Brit. J.  Dermatol. 88:551, 1973.




        Bart,  R.  S.  and  Scholl  ,  S.   Eye  color in darkly  pigmented  basal  cell




            carcinomas and  malignant melanomas.   Arch,  Dermatol.  107:206-207,




            1973.




        Beard, H. H. ,  Boggess,  T.  S.  and  von Haam,  E.   Experimental  production




            of malignant  tumors in the albino rat  by means  of  ultraviolet rays.




            Am.  J.  Cancer 27:257-266, 1936.




157     Beardmore, G. L.   The  epidemiology of malignant melanoma  in  Australia.




            IN:   Melanoma and Skin Cancer.  New South Wales Government  Printer,




            Sydney,  1972, pp 39-64.




       Bener,  P.   Approximate  Values  of Intensity  of  Natural Ultraviolet  Radia-




            tion for  Different Amounts of Atmospheric Ozone.   European  Res.




            Office,  U.S.  Army  (Contract DA&A 36-68-C-1017), 1972.




       Beral,  V. Ramcharan, S.  and  Favis, R.   Malignant melanoma  and oral  con-




            traceptive use among women  in California.   Brit.  J. Cancer 36:804-




            809,  1977.







                                       XI-2U

-------
                                                                    Bibliography
 Berenblum,  I.   The  carcinogenic  action  of DMBA on  the  skin of the mouse,


      rabbit,  rat  and guinea  pig-    J. Natl. Cancer  Inst.  10:167-174,


      1949.


 Berenblum,  I.  and Shubik, P.  The  role of croton  oil  applications asso-


      ciated  with a single painting of  a  carcinogen,  in tumor induction


      of  the  mouse's skin.  Brit. J. Cancer 1:379-382,  1947.


 Berger,  D. ,  Urbach,  F.  and  Davies, R.  E.  The  action spectrum  of ery-


      thema  induced by  UV  radiation.    IN:    Proc.  13th  International


      Congress  of  Dermatology  (W.  Jadassohn  and  C.   Schirrer,  eds.),


      Springer Verlag, Berlin, 1968, pp  1112-1117.


 Bischoff, F.   Carcinogenic effect  of steroids.   IN:   Advances in Lipid


      Research  (Paoletti  and Kritschevsky,  eds.),  vol.  7, New  York,


      Academic Press,  1969, pp 165-244.


 Black,  H.  S. and Douglas, D. R.   Formation of  a  carcinogen of  natural


      origin  in  the  etiology  of  UV  carcinogenesis.  Cancer Res.  33:2094-


      2096, 1973.


 Black,  H.  S. and  Lo, W.  B.   Formation  of  a carcinogen  in human  skin


      irradiated  in  ultraviolet  light.   Nature   (Lond.)  234:306-308,


      1971.


 Blois, S.   Vitamin  D, sunlight  and natural selection.   Science  159:652,
                                                                     '-»»..

      1968.


 Blum, H.  F.   Wavelength  dependence of  tumor  induction by  ultraviolet


      radiation.   J. Natl. Cancer Inst.  3:533-537, 1943.


Blum, H.  F.   Carcinogenesis  by  Ultraviolet Light.   Princeton,  Princeton


     University Press, 1959.


Blum, H.  F.   Quantitative  aspects of  cancer  induction  by UV  light.


     IN:  The  Biological  Effects  of  Ultraviolet  Radiation  (F. Urbach,


     ed.), Oxford,  Pergamon Press,  1969, pp 543-549.



                              XI-21

-------
                                                                   Bibliography
 Blum,  H.  F., Butler, E. G.  et al.   Irradiation of mouse skin with single


     doses  of  ultraviolet  light.   J.  Natl. Cancer  Inst. 22:979-993,


     1959.


 Blum,  H.  F.  and  Lippincott,  S. W.   Carcinogenic  effectiveness  of UV

                                    »
     radiation  of  wavelength  2537 A.  J.  Natl.  Cancer Inst. 3:211-216,


     1943.


 Blum,  H. F. and  Terus.    The  erythemal threshold  for  sunburn.   Am. J.


     Physiol. 146:107-117,  1946.


 Bovie,  W. T. and  Klein,  A.   Sensitization  to heat due  to exposure to


     light  of   short  wavelengths.   J.  Gen.  Physiol.  1:331-336,  1919.


 Bruusgaard,  cited  in Rasch,  C.    Some  historical  and  clinical  remarks


     on  the effects  of  light  on  the  skin  and  skin  diseases.   Proc.


     Royal Soc.  Med. 20:11-20, 1926.


 Camain,  R.  A.,  Tuyn,  A.  J. et al.  Cutaneous cancer in Dakar.   J.  Natl.


     Cancer Inst. 48:33-49, 1972.


 Carlson,  L.  D.  and Jackson, B.  H.   Combined  effects of ionizing radia-


     tion  and   high  temperature  on longevity  of  Sprague-Dawley  rats.


     Radiat. Res. 11:509-519,  1959.


 Charcot,  P.   Erytheme  produit  par  1'action  de  la  Lumiere  electrique.


     Comptes Rendus Soc. Biol.  (Paris)  5:63-65,  1858.


 CIAP Monograph  #5.   Impacts of  Climatic Change on  the  Biosphere.   Cli-


     matic  Impact  Assessment  Program,  Department  of  Transportation,


     September  1975.


Clark,  W.  H.,  Jr.  A classification of  malignant melanoma  in man  cor-


     related with  histogenesis   and  biologic  behavior.   IN:   Advances


     in  Biology of  Skin,  vol.  8, The Pigmentary System (W.  H.  Montagna,


     ed.), Oxford,  Pergamon Press, 1967,  pp 621-647.





                               XI-22

-------
                                                                    Bibliography
Clark,  W.  H. ,  Jr., From, L. , Bernardino, E. A. et al.  The histogenesis




     and  biologic behavior  of  primary human  malignant  melanoma  of the




     skin.  Cancer Res.  29:705-726, 1969.




Clark,  W.  H.  Jr.,  Mastrangelo, M. J.  et al.  Current  concepts  of the




    biology  of human  cutaneous  melanoma.   Advances  in  Cancer  Res. 24:




     267-338,  1977.




Clark,  W.  H.  Jr.  and  Mihm,  M.  C.   Lentigo maligna  and  lentigo maligna




     melanoma.  Am. J. Pathol. 55:39-67, 1969.




Clark,  W.  H.  Jr.,  Mihm, B.  H.  and Kligman,  L.  H.    The developmental




     biology  of  induced malignant  melanoma  in guinea  pigs  and  a  com-




     parison  with other neoplastic systems.   Cancer Res. 36:4079-4091,




     1976.




Clark,  W.  H.  Jr.,  Reiner,  R. R.,  Greene, M.  et al.   Origin of  familial




     malignant  melanoma  from  heritable melanocytic  lesions.     Arch.




     Dermatol. 114:732-738,  1978.




Coblentz, W. W.  and  Stair,  R.   U.S. Bureau  of Standards J.  Res.  12:13-




     14, 1934.




Coleman, W. P., Davis, R. S., Reed, R.  J. and Krementz,  E. J.  Treatment




     of  lentigo  maligna and  lentigo  maligna melanoma.    J.  Derm.  Surg.




     and Oncol. 6:476-479,  1980.




Coleman, W.  P.,  Lorig,  P.  R. ,   Reed,  R.  J.  and Krementz, E. J.   Acral




     lentiginous melanoma.   Arch. Dermatol.  116:773-776,  1980.




Cosman, B., Heddle, S. B. and Crikelsir, G.  F.   The  increasing incidence




     of  melanoma.    Plastic  and Reconstructive  Surg.  57:50-56,   1976.




Cripps, D.  J. and Ramsay, C.  A.   Ultraviolet   action  spectrum  with  a




     prism-grating monochromator.   Brit. J.  Dermatol. 82:584-592,  1970.
                              XI-23

-------
                                                                           Bibliography
158       Crombie,  I. K.   Variation  of  melanoma with  latitude  in North America




               and  Europe.  Brit.  J.  Cancer  40:774-781,  1979.




          Crutzen,  P.  J.,  Isaksen,  I.  S.   A.  and McAfee, J.  R.    The  impact of




               the  chlorocarbon industry  on the  ozone  layer.   J.  Geophys. Res.




               83:345-363,  1978.




          Curtis,  G.  L.    Initiation-promotion,   skin  carcinogenesis  and immune-




               logical  competence.   Proc.  Soc.  Exp.  Biol.  Med.  150:61-64,  1975.




          Cutchis,  P.   On  the Linkage  of  Solar Ultraviolet Radiation  to Skin




               Cancer.   Institute  for Defense Analysis.   Washington, D.C., U.S.




               Department of Transportation,  1978, pp  105-106.




          Cutler, S.  J. and Young,  J.  L.  Third National Cancer Survey:  Incidence




               Data.  NCI Monograph 41, DREW Publication No. (NIH)75-787. Bethesda




               National Cancer  Institute, 1975.




          Daniels,  F. Jr.,  Post,  P.  W.  and Johnson,  B. E.  Theories  of the role




               of  pigment  in  the  evolution  of  human  races.    IN:   Pigmentation:




               Its  Genesis  and Biologic Control  (V. Riley, edi), New York, Apple-




               ton-Century-Crofts ,  1972.




          Davies, J.  N.  P., Tauk,  R. , Meyer, R.  and  Thursten, P.   Cancer of the




               integumentary  tissues   in Ugandan  Africans.  J.  Natl. Cancer Inst.




               41:31-51, 1968.




          Davies,  R.  E. , Dodge,  H.  A.  and Austin, W.  A.  (a)  Carcinogenicity of




               DMBA  under various   light sources.  Proc. 9th Intl.  Cong,  of Photo-




               biol., p. 247,  1972  (abstract)




          Davies,  R.  E. ,  Dcdge,  H.   A.  and DeShields, L.  H.  (b)  Alteration  of




               the  carcinogenicity of DMBA  by   light.   Proc.  Am.  Assoc.  Cancer




               Res. 13:14,  1972 (abstract)
                                         XI-24

-------
                                                                    Bibliography
 Davis,  N.  C.   Malignant melanoma  in  Queensland.   Austral. J. Dermatol.





      19:13-18, 1978.




 Davies, N. C.  William Morris, M.D.,  a pioneer in the study of melanoma.




      Med. J. Austral. 1:52-54, 1980.





 DeGruijl,  F.  R.  and van  der Leun,  J.  C.   A dose-response  model  for




      skin cancer induction by chronic UV exposure of a human population.




      J. Theor. Biol. 83:487-504, 1980.




 DeLuca,  H.  F.   Vitamin D:   A  new look  at an old  vitamin.   Nutr.  Rev.




      29:179-181, 1971.




 Department  of Health,  Education and Welfare.   Second  Biennial  Report




      to  the  Congress on Research  Activities of Relevance  to  the Clean




      Air Act.   Bethesda, National Cancer Institute,  i960.




 Dickinson, R.  E., Liu, S. C. and Donohue, J. M.  Effect of chlorofluoro-




      methane  infrared   radiation   on  zonal  atmospheric  temperature.




      J. Atmos. Sci. 35:2142-2151, 1978.




 Doll,  R. ,  Muir,  C.  and Waterhouse,  J.   Cancer Incidence  in  Five  Con-




      tinents,  Vol.  III.   International  Union Against Cancer,  IARC  #15,




      1976.




Dubreuilh,  W.    Des  Hyperkeratoses  circonscrites.   Ann.  Derm.  Syph.




      (Ser. 3)7:1158-1204, 1896.




Dubreuilh, M.  W.   De  la   melanose  circonscrite precancereuse.    Ann.




     Derm. Syph.  (Paris) 3:129-151, 205-230, 1912.




DuPont  Company,   Submission  to  the  Environmental  Protection  Agency,




     "Comments on  the  December  1979  Report by  the Committee  on  the




     Impacts   of  Stratospheric  Change (CISC)  of the  National  Academy




     of Sciences."   May  1980.




Eastcott,  D.  F.    Epidemiology  of skin  cancer  in  New  Zealand.    IN:




     Monograph #10,  The  Biology  of  Cutaneous Cancer.   Bethesda, National




     Cancer  Institute,  1963.





                             XI-25

-------
                                                                   Bibliography
 Edgcomb,  J.  H.  and  Mitchelich,  H.   Melanomas  of the  skin  of guinea




      pigs  following the  application  of a  solution of DMBA in benzene.




      Acta Union International Centre Cancrum 19:706-707,  1963.




 Eklund,  G.  and Malec,  B.  Sunlight and incidence of cutaneous malignant




      melanoma.    Scand.   J.  Plast.  Reconstr.  Surg.  12:231-241,  1978.
Elwood,  J.  M.  and  Lee,  J.  A.  H.   Recent data  on  the epidemiology of




     malignant melanoma.  Semin. Oncol. 2:149, 1975.




Emmett,  E.  A.   Ultraviolet radiation  as  a cause of  skin  tumors.   CRC




     Grit. Rev. Toxicol. 2:211, 1974.




Epstein,  J.  H.   Comparison of the  carcinogenic  and cocarcinogenic ef-




     fects of  UV  light  on hairless mice.  J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 34:741-




     745, 1965.




Epstein,  J.  H.  and  Epstein,  W.  L.   A study  of tumor  types  produced




     by  UV  light  in hairless  and  hairy  mice.   J.  Invest.  Dermatol.




     41:463-473, 1963.




Epstein,  J.  H. , Epstein, W. L.  and Nakai, T.  Production  of  melanomas




     from DMBA-induced  "blue  nevi"  in  hairless  mice  with  ultraviolet




     light.   J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 30:19-30, 1967.




Epstein, J.  H. , Fukuyama,  K.  and Dobson,  R.  Ultraviolet light  carcino-




     genesis.    IN:    The  Biologic  Effects  of  UV  Radiation  (F.  Urbach,




     ed.), Oxford,  Pergamon Press, 1969, pp 551-568.




Epstein, J.  H.  and  Roth,  H. L.   Experimental ultraviolet light  carcino-




     genesis:    A  study  of  croton  oil promoting  effects.   J.  Invest.




     Dermatol.  50:387-389,  1968.
                              XI-26

-------
                                                                   Bibliography
Everett,  M.  A.,  Bell,  R.  and  Hagans,  J.  A.   Melanogenesis  and  skin




     cancer.  Arch. Dermatol. 82:908, 1960.




Everett, M. A., Yeargens, E., Sayre, R. M. and Olson, R. L.  Penetration




     of  epidermis by  ultraviolet  rays.   Photochem.  Photobiol.  5:533-




     542, 1966.




Fears, T.  R.,  Scotto,  J. and Schneiderman, M. A.  Skin cancer,  melanoma




     and sunlight.  Am. J. Publ. Health 66:461-464, 1976.




Findlay, G. M.   Ultraviolet light and skin cancer.  Lancet 2:1070-1073,




     1928.




Fisher,  M.  S.  and  Kripke,  M.  L.   Systemic  alteration induced  in  mice




     by  UV  light  irradiation  and its relationship to UV carcinogenesis.




     Proc. Natl.  Acad.  Sci.  74:1688-1692, 1977.




Forbes,  P.  D.,  Davies,  R.  E.  and Urbach, F.   Phototoxicity  and  photo-




     carcinogenesis:   Comparative effects of anthracene  and  8-methoxy-




     psoralen in  the skin of  mice.   Food Cosmet. Toxicol. 14:243,  1970.




Forbes,  P.  D.,  Davies,  R.  E.  and Urbach, F.   Experimental  ultraviolet




     photocarcinogenesis:   Wavelength interactions  and time-dose  rela-




     tionships.   IN:  NCI Monograph  #50,  1978.




Forbes,  P.  D.,  and Urbach,  F.    Experimental modification of photocar-




     cinogenesis.    I.   Fluorescent  whitening agents and  shortwave  UVR.




     Food and Cosmet.  Toxicol.  13:335-337, 1975.




Foulds,  L.   Neoplastic  Development.   New York,  Academic Press,  1969,




     vol. 1,  p  75.




Freeman,  R.  G.    Data  on the action  spectrum  for ultraviolet  carcino-




     genesis.   IN:  NCI Monograph #50, 1978.
                             XI-27

-------
                                                                   Bibliography
 Freeman,  R.  G.  and  Knox,  J.  M.   Ultraviolet-induced  corneal tumors




      in  different  species and strains of animals.  J. Invest. Dermatol.




      43:431-436, 1964.




 Gellin,  G.  A.,  Kopf,  A. W.  and Andrade,  R.   Basal  cell epitheliomas:




      A  controlled  study of associated factors.   Arch.  Dermatol. 91:38-




      45,  1965.




 Gellin,  G.  A.,  Kopf,  A.  W.  and  Garfinkel,  L.   Malignant  melanoma.




      A controlled study of possibly associated factors.  Arch. Dermatol.




      99:143-148, 1969.




 Giese,  A.  C.    Photophysiology,  volume  4.   New York,  Academic Press,




      1965,  pp  139-202.




 Gordon,  D.  and Silverstone, H.   Worldwide  epidemiology  of premalignant




      and  malignant  cutaneous  lesions.   IN:   Cancer  of the  Skin  (R.




      Andrade,  ed.),  Philadelphia,  W. B.   Saunders,  1976, pp  405-455.




 Grady, H.  G.,  Blum, H. F.  and  Kirby-Smith, J.  S.  Types  of  tumors  in-




      duced  by  ultraviolet  radiation and  factors influencing their rela-




      tive incidence.  J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 3:371-378, 1943.




 Graham, J.  H.  and  Helwig,  E.  B.   IN:   Advances in Biology of the Skin,




     vol. 2 (W.  Montagna,  ed.),  Oxford, Pergamon .Press,  1965,  pp  277-




     327.




Green, A.  E.   S.   Ultraviolet exposure  and skin cancer  response.   Am.




     J. Epidemiol.  107:277-280,  1978.




Green, A. E.  S.,  Findley,  G.  B., Klenk,  K.  F.,  Wilson,  W.  M.  and Mo,  T.




     The   ultraviolet  dose  dependence  of  nonmelanoma  skin cancer inci-




     dence.   Photochem. Photobiol. 24:353-362,  1976.
                             XI-28

-------
                                                                   Bibliography
Green,  A.  E.  S.  and Mo,  T.   Proc. Third  Conf.  on CIAP.   DOT-TSC-OST-




      74-15,  pp  518-522,  1974.




Green,  A.  E.  S.,  Mo, T.  and  Miller,  J.  H.  A  study  of solar erythema




      radiation  doses.  Photochem. Photobiol. 20:473-482, 1974.




Griffin,  A.  C. , Dolman,  V.  S.  et  al.  The effect  of  visible light on




      the  carcinogenicity  of  ultraviolet  light.    Cancer  Res.  15:523,




      1955.




Haenszel,  W.    Variations in  skin  cancer incidence  within  the  U.S.




      NCI Monograph 10:225-243, 1963.




Hampson, J.   Photochemical war on  the  atmosphere.   Nature 250:189-191,




     1974.




Hausser,  K.  W.  and  Vahle, W.   Sonnenbrand und  Sonnenbrauniing.   Wiss.




      Veroff.  Siernenskonzern 6:101,  1927.




Haverkamp,  J.   and  Radman, 0.  G.   Malignant  melanoma  of the  foot  in




      black patients.  J. Natl. Med.  Assoc.  71:353-356,  1979.




Haxthausen,  H.  and  Hausman,  W.   Die Lichterkrankungen  der  Haut.   Urban




      und Schwarzenberg,  Vienna, 1929.




Herlitz, C.  W.,  Jundell,  I.  and Wahlgren,  F.   Malignant tumors in  white




     mice  caused  by  ultraviolet  radiation.   Acta  Paediat.  10:333-347,




      1930.




Herskowitz,  L.  J. and Dobes,  W.   Photoprotective qualities of clothing.




      In press




Higginson,  J.  and  Oettle, A.  G.   Cancer incidence  in the  Bantu  and




     "Cape colored"  races  of South Africa.   J.  Natl.  Cancer  Inst.  24:




     5389, 1960.
                           XI-29

-------
                                                                            Bibliography1
         Hill,  L.  and  Eidenow, A.   Biological  action  of  light.   I.   Influence




              of  temperature.   Proc.  Royal  Soc.  (Biol.)  95:163-180,  1923.




         Hinds,  M.  W.   and  Kolonel, L.  N.   Malignant  melanoma of  the skin  in




              Hawaii,  1960-1977.'  Cancer  45:811-817,  1980.





         Holman,  C.  D.   D. ,  James,  I.  R. , Galley,  P.  H.  and  Armstrong,  B.  K.




              An  analysis of trends  in mortality of  skin from malignant melanoma




              of  the  skin in Australia.   In press,  1980.




159      Holman,  C. D.  J. ,  Mulroney, C.  D.  and  Armstrong,  P.  K.    Epidemiology




              of   pre-invasive   and  invasive  malignant  melanoma   in Australia.




              Int.  J. Cancer 25:317-323,  1980.




         Houghton,  A.,   Flannery,   J.  and  Viola,  M.   V.    Malignant  melanoma  in




              Connecticut and Denmark.  Int. J.  Cancer 25:95-104, 1980.




         Houghton,  A.,   Munster, E.  W.   and  Viola,  M.  V.    Increased  incidence




              of  malignant  melanoma  after  peaks  of  sunspot activity.   Lancet




              1:759-760,  1978.




         Hueper,  W. C.   Cutaneous neoplastic  responses elicited  by ultraviolet




              rays  in hairless  rats  and in  their haired  litter mates.  Cancer




             Res.  1:402-406, 1941.




         Hyde,  J.    On  the  influence of  light  in the  production  of  cancer of




             the skin.   Am. J.  Med.  Sci. 131:1-22, 1906.




         Isaacson,  C.,  Selzer,   G. ,  Kaye, V.  et al.   Cancer in urban  blacks of




             South Africa.  S.  African Cancer Bull. 22:49,  1978.




         Jensen,  0. M.  and Bolander,  A.  M.    Trends  in malignant  melanoma of




             the skin.   World Health Statistics Quart. 33:2-26,  1980.
                                    XI-30

-------
                                                                   Bibliography
 Jessup,  J.  M. ,  Hanna,  N.  et  al.   Mechanisms  of  depressed reactivity




      to  DNCB and UVR induced  tumors during UV carcinogenesis in BALB/c.




      Cell.  Immunol.  38:105-115,  1978.




 Johnson,  B. E.   Ultraviolet  radiation  and  lysosomes  in  skin.   Nature




      (Lond.) 219:1258-1259,  1968.




 Johnson,  B. E. , Daniels, F.  and Magnus, I.  A.   Response  of human skin




      to  ultraviolet  light.   IN:  Photophysiology, vol. IV (A. C. Giese,




      ed.),  New York, Academic  Press, 1968.




 Kelner,  A.  and  Taft,  E. B.   The  influence  of  photoreactivating light




      on the  type  and  frequency  of tumors  induced by UV radiation.   Cancer




      Res. 16:860-866, 1956.




 Kirby-Smith, J.  S. ,  Blum, H.  F. and Grady, H. G.  Penetration of ultra-




      violet  radiation  into  skin,  as  a  factor  in carcinogenesis.   J.




      Natl.  Cancer Inst.  2:403-412,  1942.




 Klepp, 0.  and  Magnus, K.  Some  environmental and bodily characteristics




      of  melanoma patients.   Int. J. Cancer 23:482, 1979.





Kripke,  M.   L.   Speculations  on the  role of ultraviolet radiation  in




    the development  of  malignant melanoma.   J.  Natl.  Cancer  Inst.  63:




      541-547, 1979.




Kripke, M. L. and Fisher, M.  S.  Effect of UV light  on the  host  response




      to UV  induced  tumors.   Proc.  Am.  Soc. Photobiol.,  1976 (abstract)




Kripke,  M.  L.   and   Lill,  P.  H.   Unpublished data.   Cited  by  Kripke,




     M. L.,  J.  Natl.  Cancer Inst. 63:544, 1979.




Kripke, M.  L., Lofgren,  J.  S.  et al.   In vivo  immune responses  of mice




     during  carcinogenesis   by  UV  radiation.    J.  Natl.  Cancer  Inst.




     59:1227-1230,  1977.
                            XI-31

-------
                                                                             Bibliography
          Lancaster, H. 0.   Some  geographical aspects of the mortality from mela-




               noma in Europeans.   Med.  J.  Austral.  1:1082,  1956.




          Lane-Brown,  M. M.  and Melia,  D.  F.   A genetic  diathesis  to  skin  cancer.




               J.  Invest.  Dermatol.  61:39-41,  1973.




          Lane-Brown,   M.  M.,  Sharpe,  C. A.  B. ,  MacMillan,  D.  S. and  McGovern,




               V.  J.   Genetic predisposition  to  melanoma and other  skin  cancers




               in  Australians.  Med.  J.  Austral. 1:852, 1971.




          Larsen,  T.  and   Crude,  T.  H.    A  retrospective  histological study  of




               669  cases   of  primary  malignant  melanoma  in  clinical  stage  I.




               I.    Histologic  classification,  sex and age of patients,  localiza-




               tion  of tumors and prognosis.   Acta  Path. Microbiol.  Scand.  Sect.




               A.  86:473-480,  1978.




          Larsen,  T.  and   Crude,  T.  H.    A  retrospective  histological study  of




               669  cases   of  primary  malignant  melanoma  in  clinical  stage  I.




                    VI.   The  relation of dermal  solar elastosis  to sex, age and




               survival of  the patient,  and  to  localization,  histological  type




               and level of invasion of  the  tumor.   Acta Path. Microbiol. Scand.




               Sect. A.  87:361-366,  1979.




160       Leach, J.  F.,  Beadle, P. C.  and Pingstone, A. R.   Effect  of  ozone varia-




               tion  on  disease  in Great Britain.   I.    Skin cancer.   Aviation,




               Space and Environ. Med. 49:512-516, 1978.




161       Lee,  J.  A.  H.    Sunlight  and the etiology  of  melanoma.   IN:  Melanoma




               and Skin Cancer,  Sydney,  New South Wales Government Printer, 1972,




               pp  83-94.




          Lee,  J.  A. H.  Current evidence about the causes of malignant melanoma.




               Prog, in Clin. Cancer VI:151-161, 1975.
                                      XI-32

-------
                                                                            Bibliography
         Lee, J. A.  H.   Current evidence about the causes of malignant melanoma.




              IN:   Clinical  Cancer  (Ariel,  ed.),  New York,  Grune  and Stratton,




              1977, p 151




         Lee, J. A. H. and Carter,  A. P.   Secular trends  in mortality from malig-




              nant  melanoma.   J. Natl. Cancer Inst. 45:91-97, 1970.




         Lee, J. A.  H.  and  Issenberg,  H.  J.   A  comparison  between  England  and




             Wales and  Sweden   in  the  incidence and mortality of malignant  skin




              tumors.  Brit.  J.  Cancer 26:59-66, 1972.




162      Lee, J. A.  H.,  Petersen,  G. R. ,  Stevens,  R. G.  and  Vesanen, K.   The




              influence of age,  year  of  birth  and date on  mortality  from malig-




              nant  melanoma  in the  populations  of  England and  Wales,  Canada




              and  the  white  population of  the  U.S.   Am.  J.  Epidemiol.  110:734-




              739,  1979.




         Lee, J. A.  H.  and Merrill,  J. M.  Sunlight  and melanoma.   Lancet  1:550




              1971.




         Lee, J. A.  H.  and Storer, B. E.   Excess of  malignant melanomas  in women




              in the  British  Isles.  In press,  1980.




]_63      Lee, J. A.  H.  and  Strickland,  D.   Malignant melanoma:    Social  status




              and outdoor work.   Brit. J.  Cancer 41:757-763,  1980.




         Lewis,  M.  G.    Malignant  melanoma in  Uganda.   Brit. J.  Cancer  21:483-




             495, 1967.




         Lipson, R.  L.  and  Baldes,  E.   J.   Photosensitivity and  heat.   Arch.




              Dermatol.  82:517-520,  1960.




         Little, J.  H.   Histology  and   prognosis  in  cutaneous melanoma.    IN:




              Melanoma  and   Skin  Cancer,   Sydney,  New  South Wales   Government




              Printer,  1972.
                                       XI-33

-------
                                                                             Bibliography!
         Little, J. H., Holt,  I.  and Davis, N.   Changing  epidemiology of  malig-


              nant  melanoma   in  Queensland.   Med.  J.  Austral.  1:66-69,   1980.


         London,  J.    The  observed  distribution and  variation  of  total   ozone.


              IN:    Proc.   NATO Advanced  Study  Institute  on Atmospheric  Ozone.


              U.S.  Department of  Transportation,  FAA-HAPP,  Washington,   D.C.,


              pp 31-44.


165      London, J. and Reber,  C.  A.   Solar activity and  total  atmospheric  ozone.


              Geophys.  Res. Lett.  6:869-872,  1979.


         Loomis, W.  F.   Skin pigmentation regulation  of vitamin  D  synthesis


              in man.   Science 157:501-506,  1967.


         Lund,   R.  H.   and  Ihnen,  M.   Malignant melanoma.   Surgery  38:652-659,


              1955.


         Luckiesh,  M. ,  Holladay,  L.  L.  and Taylor,  A.  M.   Erythemal  and tanning


              effectiveness  of UV energy.   Gen.  Electric Rev.  42:274-278,   1939.


         MacDonald,  E.  J.   Malignant  melanoma  in Connecticut.   IN:   The Biology


             of Melanoma, New  York Academy  of Sciences, 1948, pp 71-81.


         MacDonald,  E.  J.   Assessment  of  possible  SST effects on the  incidence

                                                                        *
              of skin cancer.   Tech.  Report,  Department  of Atmospheric Physics,


              University of Arizona,  1971.


         MacDonald,  E.  J.  and   Bubendorf, E.   Some epidemiologic aspects of skin


              caner.   IN:  Tumors  of  the  Skin,  Yearbook Medical Publisher,  1964,


              pp 23  ff.


         Mackie,  B.  S.  and McGovern,  V.  J.    The  mechanism  of  solar carcino-


             genesis:   A  study  of   the  role  of  collagen degeneration of the


             dermis  in the production  of skin  cancer.   Arch. Dermatol.  Syph.


             78:218-244, 1958.
                                       XI-34

-------
                                                                          Bibliography
         Malec,  E. and Eklund,  G.   The changing incidence  of  malignant  melanoma




              of  the  skin  in  Sweden  1959-1968.    Scand.   J.  Plastic Reconstr.




              Surg.  12:19-27,  1978.




         Magnus, I. A.  and Johnson,  B.  E.   Cited by  Johnson,  B.  E. et al.  IN:




              Photophysiology,  vol.  4 (A.  C.   Giese,  ed.),  New York,  Academic




              Press,  1965,  pp  139-202.




         Magnus, K.   Incidence  of  malignant  melanoma of  the skin in  Norway  1955-




              1970.  Cancer 32:1273-1275,  1973.




         Magnus, K.   Epidemiology of  malignant melanoma of  the  skin in Norway




              with special  reference  to  the  effect  of  solar radiation.    IN:




              Biological   Characterization  of   Human  Tumors.    Excerpta Medica




              Congress  Series #375,  1975.




166      Magnus, K.   Incidence of  malignant melanoma of  the skin  in  the  five




              Nordic countries.  Int. J. Cancer  20:477-485,  1977.




         Magnus, K.   Habits  of  sun  exposure   and  risk of malignant melanoma.




              Cancer, 1980,  in  press.




         McCarthy,  W.  H.,  Black, A.  L. and Milton,  G.  W.   Melanoma  in New South




              Wales.  Cancer 46:427-432, 1980.




         McGovern,  V.  J.   The  classification  of  melanoma  and  its   relationship




              with prognosis.   Pathology 2:85-98, 1970.




         McGovern, V. J.  Malignant Melanoma.  Clinical and  Histologic Diagnosis.




              New  York, John Wiley, 1976.




         McGovern,  V.  J.   Epidemiologic  aspects of melanoma:  A review.  Path-




              ology 9:233-241,  1977.




         McGovern, V. J.  and Lane-Brown,  M. M.   The Nature  of Melanoma.  Spring-




              field, C. C. Thomas, 1969.
                                         XI-35

-------
                                                                   Bibliography
McGovern,  V.  J. and Mackie, B.  S.   The relationship of solar radiation




      to melanoblastoma.  Aust. N.Z. Surg. 28:357, 1959.




McGovern,  V.  J. ,  Mihm,  M.  C. ,  Bailly, C.  et  al.    The classification




      of malignant  melanoma.   1.   Its  histologic  reporting.   Cancer 32:




      1446-1457,  1973.




McKnight,  C.  K.  and  Magnusson, B.   Tumors in Iceland.   I.   Malignant




      tumors  of the skin.   Acta Path.  Microbiol. Scand.  Sect.  A 87:37-




      44, 1979.




Mehnert,  J.   H.  and Heard,  J.  Staging  of  malignant melanoma  by  depth




      of invasion.  A proposed index to  prognosis.  Am. J. Surg. 110:168-




      176,  1965.




Millikan,  L.  E. , Boylan, J. L., Hook, R. R. et al.  Melanoma in Sinclair




      swine:   A new animal model.   J.  Invest.  Dermatol.  62:20-30,  1974.




Mo,  T.  and  Green, A.  E.  S.    A  climatology  of solar  erythema  dose.




      Photochem. Photobiol. 20:483-496,  1974.




Molesworth,  E.  H.   Rodent ulcer.   Med. J. Australia  (Suppl),  1927,  p




      878.




Movshovitz, M.  and Modan, B.   Role of sun exposure  in  the  etiology  of




     malignant  melanoma.   Epidemiological Conference.   J. Natl.  Cancer




      Inst.  51:77, 1973.




Nakamura,  K.  and Johnson, W.  C.   Ultraviolet  light  induced  connective




     tissue changes in rat skin.  J. Invest. Dermatol. 51:253-258,  1968.




Nathanson,  R.  B. ,  Forbes,  P.  D. and Urbach, F.   UV  photocarcinogenesis:




     Modification of  antilymphocytic  serum or 6-mercaptopurine.   Proc.




     Am.  Assoc. Cancer Res. 14:46, 1973 (abstract)




Nathanson,  R.  B. ,  Forbes,  P.  D. and Urbach, F.   Modification  of photo-




     carcinogenesis by  two  immunosuppressive  agents.   Cancer Letters




     1:243-247, 1976.
                                XI-36

-------
                                                                 Bibliography




NAS  (National  Academy  of Sciences).   Biological  Impact of  Increased




     Intensities  of  Solar  Ultraviolet  Radiation.   Washington,  D.C.,




     1973.




NAS  (National Academy  of Sciences).   Environmental Impact  of  Strato-




     spheric  Flight:   Biological and Climatic Effects of Aircraft Emis-




     sions in the Stratosphere.  Washington, D.C., 1975.




NAS  (National Academy  of Sciences).   Report of  the Committee  on  Im-




     pacts of Stratospheric Change (CISC):   Protection Against Depletion




     of  Stratospheric Ozone  by  Chlorofluorocarbons.   Washington,  D.C.




     1979.




Nicolle,  F.  V.,  Mathews,  W.  H.  and  Palmer,  J.  D.   Malignant  melanoma




     of the skin.  Canad. J.  Surg. 3:233-237,  i960.




Nobil, El-Bokainy and Ebeid,  A. M.  Malignant  melanoma in Egypt.   Tumori




     59:429-436,  1973.




Norbury,  K.  C. ,  Kripke,  M.  L.  and  Budman, M.  B.   In  vitro  reactivity




     of macrophages  and  lymphocytes  from  UV irradiated mice.  J.  Natl.




     Cancer Inst. 59:1231-1235, 1977.




Norris, W.   Eight  Cases of Melanosis with Pathological  and  Therapeutic




     Remarks  on- That Disease.    Langman,  Brown,   Green,  Longman  and




     Roberts, London, 1857.




O'Beirn,  S.  F. ,  Judge,  P.,  Urbach,  F. et  al.    Skin cancer in  county




     Galway,  Ireland.   Proc.  10th  Intl.  Cancer Conference, Am.  Cancer




     Soc., 1968.




Oe'ttle,  C.  H.   Skin cancer in  Africa.   IN:   Monograph 10, National




     Cancer Institute, The Biology of  Cutaneous  Cancer.  1963, pp  197-




     214.




O'Halloran, M. J.  Skin cancer in Ireland.   J. Irish  Med.  Assoc. 60:209-




     213, 1967.
                              XI-37

-------
                                                                  Bibliography
Olson,  R.  L. ,  Sayre, R. M. and Everett, M. A.  Effect of anatomic loca-




     tion  and  time on ultraviolet erythema.  Arch. Dermtol. 93:211-215,




     1966.




Orr, J.  W.   The changes antecedent to tumor formation during the treat-




     ment  of mouse skin with carcinogenic hydrocarbons.  J. Path. Bact.




     46:495-515, 1938.




Owens,  D.  W. ,  Knox, J. H.  et al.   The  influence  of wind  on  chronic




     ultraviolet  light-induced  carcinogenesis.   Brit.  J.  Dermatol.  97:




     285, 1977.




Pawlowski, A.,  Habermann,  H.  F.  and Menon, I. A.   Skin melanoma induced




     by  DMBA in albino  guinea pigs and  its  similarity to  skin melanoma




     in humans.  Cancer Res. 40:3652-3660, 1980.




Pell, S.,  O'Berg,  M. T. and Karrh, B. W.  Cancer  epidemiologic surveil-




     lance  in   the  DuPont   Company.   J.  Occup.  Med.  20:725-740,  1978.




Pitts,  D. G.  Amer. J. Optom.  47:535-546, 1970.




Price,   N.  M.,   Rywlin,  A.  M.  and  Ackerman,  A.  B.   Histologic  criteria




     for the  diagnosis  of  superficial  spreading  melanoma.   Cancer  38:




     2434-2441, 1970.




Putschar, W. and Holtz,  F.   Erzeugung von Hautkrebsen  bei  Ratten durch




     Langedaurende  Ultraviolett  Bestrahlung.   Ztschr. f.  Krebsforsch.




     33:219-260, 1930.




Pyle, J. A. and Derwent, R.  G.   Possible  ozone reductions  and UV  changes




     at  the earth's surface.  Nature  286:373-375,  1980.




Regan,   J.  and   Setlow,  R.  B.   Two forms  of  repair  in the DNA of  human




     cells  damaged  by chemical carcinogens  and mutagens.    Cancer Res.




     34:3318-3325,  1974.
                               XI-38

-------
                                                                Bibliography
Reiner,  R.  R. ,  Clark,  W.  H.  Jr.,  Green,  M.  H. ,  Ainsworth,  A.  M.  and




     Fraumeni,  J.  F.   Precursor lesions in familial melanoma.   J.  Am.




     Med. Assoc. 239:744-746, 1978.




Ringentz, N.  Cancer incidence in Finland,  Iceland, Norway and Sweden.




     Acta Path.  Microbiol. Scand. Sect. A.  Suppl.  224,  1971.




Robertson,  D.   F.  (Thesis)  Solar  ultraviolet  radiation  in relation  to




     sunburn and skin cancer.  University of Queensland,  1972.




Roffo, A. H.  Cancer y Sol.    Boll.  Inst. de Med.  Exper. para  el  estuda




     y trata del Cancer.  10:417-439, 1933.




RosDahl,  I.   The  epidermal  melanocyte  population  and  its reaction  to




     ultraviolet  light.   Acta  Dermato-Venereologica  Suppl.  88,  1979.




Rothman,  R.  H.  and  Setlow,   R.  B.   An action  spectrum for cell  killing




     and  pyrimidine  dimer   formation  in  Chinese   hamster  V—79  cells.




     Photochem.  Photobiol. 29:57-61,  1979.




Rundel, R. D. and Nachtwey,  D. S.  Skin cancer  and  UV radiation.   Photo-




     chem. Photobiol. 28:345-356, 1978.




Rusch, H. P., Kline, B.  Z.  and Bauman, C.  A.  Carcinogenesis by  UV rays




     with reference  to  wavelength and energy.  Arch.  Pathol.  371:135-




     146, 1941.




Sams, W.  M.  Jr.,  Smith,  J.   G.  and  Burk,  P. G.   The experimental pro-




     duction of elastosis with  ultraviolet  light.   J.  Invest.  Dermatol.




     43:467, 1964.




Schulze,  R.  and Grafe,  K.   Consideration  of  sky ultraviolet  radiation




     in  the  measurement of  solar  UVR.  IN:  The  Biologic  Effects   of




     Ultraviolet Radiation  (F.  Urbach,  ed.),  Oxford,  Pergamon  Press,




     1969, pp 369-373.
                              XI-39

-------
                                                                        Bibliography
         Scott,  E.  L. and Straf,  M.  L.   Ultraviolet  radiation  as a cause of can-




              cer.    IN:   Origins  of Human  Cancer.   Cold  Springs  Harbor Lab.,




              1977,  pp  529-546.




         Scotto,  J., Fears,  T.  R. and Gori, G.  B.   Measurements of ultraviolet




              radiation  in the  U.S.  and  comparison  to  skin cancer  data.   U.S.




              DHEW No.  (NIH)76-1092,  Washington,  D.C., 1975.




167      Scotto,  J. ,  Fears,  T. R. , et  al.   Incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer




              in  the United States 1977-78.   DHEW Publication  No.  (NIH)80-2154.




              U.S. DHEW, National  Cancer  Institute, April 1980.




         Scotto,  J.,  Kopf, A. W.  and Urbach, F.  Nonmelanoma skin cancer in four




              areas  of the U.S.  Cancer 34:1333-1338, 1974.




         Scotto,  J.  and Nam,  J.  M.   Skin melanoma  and  seasonal patterns.   Am.




              J.  Epidemiol. 111:309-314,  1980.




         Setlow,  R.   B.    The  relevance  of  photobiological  repair.   Ann.  Acad.




              Bros. Ciencas 45:215-220, 1973.




         Setlow,  R.  B.   The wavelengths  in  sunlight  effective  in producing skin




              cancer:   A  theoretical  analysis.    Proc. Natl. Acad.  Sci.  71:3363-




              3366, 1974.




         Shaw, H. M. ,  McCarthy,  W. H. and Milton, G. W.   Changing trends in mor-




              tality  from  malignant melanoma.  Med.  J. Austral.  64:77-78,  1977.




         Shield,  A.  M.   A remarkable case of multiple growths of the  skin caused




              by  exposure to the sun.   Lancet 1:22-23, 1899.




         Silverstone,  H.    Skin cancer  in Queensland,  Australia.   IN:    Report




              of  the Airlie  House Conference,  Monograph #50,  National  Cancer




              Institute.  DHEW Publication No. (NIH)78-1532,  pp  230-232,  1978.




         Silverstone, H.  and  Searle, J.  H.  A.   The  epidemiology of  skin  cancer




              in Queensland.   Brit. J. Cancer 24:235-253,  1970.
                                        XI-40

-------
                                                              Bibliography









Skibba,  J.  L. ,  Pinckley,  J. et al.  Multiple primary melanoma following




    administration of levodopa.  Arch. Pathol. 93:556-561, 1972.




Smith,  K.  C.  The cellular repair of radiation damage.   IN:   Sunlight




     and  Man (T.  B. Fitzpatrick  et  al. ,  eds.),  Tokyo,  University  of




     Tokyo Press, 1974.




Sober,  A.  J. ,  Blois, M.  S. , Clark, W. H. Jr., Fitzpatrick, T. B.,  Kopf,




     A.  W.  and  Mihm, M.  C.   Primary malignant melanoma of  the  skin.




     IN:   Dermatology,  Proc.  15th Intl. Cong., Mexico  1977.   Excerpta




     Medica, Intl. Cong,  series #451, 1979.




Sober,  A.  J. ,  Lew,  R.  A.,  Fitzpatrick,  T.  B. and  Marvell, R.   Solar




     exposure patterns in  patients with  cutaneous  melanoma.   Clin.  Res.




     28:561A,1980.




Sober,  A.  J. and Wick,  M.  M.   Levodopa  therapy and malignant melanoma.




     J. Am. Med.  Assoc.  240:554-555, 1978.




Stein,  D. , Thind,  I.  S.  and Louria, D.  B.   Melanoma of the  skin  in New




     Jersey.   J.  of the  Med. Soc.  of New  Jersey 75:391-393, 1978.




Stenback,  F.   Promotion  in the  morphogenesis  of  chemically  inducible




     skin tumors.  Acta  Path.  Microbiol. Scand. Suppl.  208:1-116,  1969.




Stenback, F.  (a)  Cellular injury and cell proliferation in  skin  car-




     cinogenesis  by UV light.  Oncology 31:61-65, 1975.




Stenback, F. (b)  Species-specific  neoplastic  progression by  ultraviolet




     light on  the skin  of  rats,   guinea  pigs,  hamsters and mice.  On-




     cology 31:209-225,  1975.




Stenback, F.  Life history  and histopathology of ultraviolet  light in-




     duced skin  tumors.   IN:   Intl. Conf. on UV Carcinogenesis.  Mono-




     graph #50,  National  Cancer Institute, 1978, pp  37-70.
                                 XI-41

-------
                                                                            Bibliography
         Stief,  L.  J., Michael,  J.  V.  et al.  Geophys.  Res.  Lett.  5:829,  1978.




         Teppo,  L. , Hakema, M., Hakulinen, T., Lehtonen, M. and Saxen, E.  Cancer




               in Finland.    Acta  Path.  Microbiol.  Scand.  Sect.  A,  Suppl.  252,




               1975.




168      Teppo,  L. ,  Pakkanen, M.  and Hakulinen,  T.   Sunlight as  a  risk factor




               of malignant melanoma  of  the  skin.   Cancer  41:2018-2027,  1978.




         Teppo,  L. ,  Pukkala,  E. ,  Hakama, M. , Hakulinen, T.,  Herva,  A. and Saxen,




               E.   Way of  life and cancer incidence in Finland:  A municipality




               based  ecological analysis.   Scand.  J.  Social  Med.  Suppl.  19:50-




               54, 1980.




         Thomas,  L.  cited in  Peto,  R.    Distorting the  epidemiology  of cancer:




               The  need for a  more balanced  overview.  Nature  284:297-300,  1980




         Toth,  B.   Susceptibility  of guinea pigs  to  chemical carcinogens  DMBA




               and urethane.  Cancer Res. 30:2583-2589,  1970.




         Trosko,  J.  E. and Chu,H.  E.   Inhibition of  repair  of  UV  damaged  DNA




               by caffeine and mutation induction in Chinese hamster  cells.   Chem.




               Biol. Interactions 6:317-332, 1973.




         Unna,  P.   Histopathologie  der  Hautkrankheiten.    August  Hirschwald,




               Berlin, 1894.




         Urbach, F.  (ed.)  Monograph #10, National Cancer Institute,  The Biology




              of Cutaneous Cancer, 1963.




         Urbach,  F.   Geographic  pathology of skin  cancer.   IN:   The  Biologic




              Effects of  Ultraviolet Radiation (F.  Urbach,  ed.), Oxford,  Pergamon




              Press,  1969.




         Urbach, F.  and Davies, R. E. Estimate  of ozone reduction in  the strato-




              sphere  on the incidence of skin  cancer in  man.   IN:  CIAP Monograph




              5, DOT-TST-75-55, National  Technical Information Service,  Spring-




              field,  VA,  1975.






                                         XI-42

-------
                                                                         Bibliography
169     Urbach, F.,  Rose, D. B. and Bonnem, M.   Genetic and environmental  inter-




             actions  in  skin  carcinogenesis.    IN:    Environment  and Cancer,




             Williams and Wilkins, Baltimore,  1972,  pp 355-371.




        van  der  Leun,  J.  C.  and Daniels,  F.  Jr.  Biologic effects  of strato-




             spheric ozone  decrease.   A  critical  review  of  assessment.    IN:




             CIAP Monograph 5, Appendix  B, p  7-105.   DOT-TST-75-55, National




             Technical  Information Service, Springfield, VA, 1975.




        Van Scott, E. J. ,  Reinertson,  R.  P. and McCall, C.  B.   The  growing  pre-




             valence, histologic  type  and significance of palmar  and plantar




             nevi.  Cancer 1:363-367, 1957.




        Vesselinovitch,  S.  D. , Mikhailovich, N.  and Richter,  W. R.    The induc-




             tion of  malignant melanomas  in  Syrian  white  hamster  by neonatal




             exposure to urethane.  Cancer Res.  30:2543-2547,  1970.




        Vielkind, N.    Genetic control  of cell  differentiation  in platy  fish




             sword tail  melanoma.   J. Exp.  Zool.  196:197-204,  1976.




        Viola,  M. V.  and  Houghton,  A.   Melanoma in  Connecticut.   Conn.  Med.




             42:268-269,  1978.




        Vitaliano, P. P.  and Urbach,  F.   The relative  importance of  risk factors




             in nonmelanoma carcinoma.   Arch. Dermatol.  116:454-456, i960.




        Wallace,  D.   C. ,  Beardmore,  G. H.  and  Exton,  L. A.   Familial malignant




             melanoma.   Ann. Surg. 177:15-20, 1973.




        Wallace,  D.  C.  and  Exton,  L.  A.   Genetic predisposition to development




             of malignant  melanoma.   1972.




        Wanebo, H. J.,  Woodruff,  J.  and Fortner, J.  G.   Malignant  melanoma of




             the  extremities.   Cancer 35:666, 1975.




        Wayte,  D.  M.  and Helwig, E. G.  Melanotic  freckle of Hutchinson.  Cancer




             21:893-911,  1968.
                                       XI-4 3

-------
                                                                 Bibliography
Wigle, D. T.   Malignant  melanoma of skin and  sunspot  activity.  Lancet




     2:38, 1978.




Word, W.  H.   Melanoma, carcinoma of the skin and  sunlight.  Australasian




     J. Dermatol. 9:70-75, 1967.




Winkelman, R. K. , Baldes, E.  J.  and Zollman,  P. E.   Squamous cell tumors




     induced in  hairless  mice with UV  light.  J. Invest. Dermatol. 34:




     131-138, 1960.




Xenophon   (translated  by  J.  S.  Watson).   The  Anabasis.   London, Henry




     G. Bohn, 1885,  pp 126-127.




Zackheim, H.  S.  Origin of the human basal cell epithelioma.  J. Invest.




     Dermatol.  40:283-297, 1963.




Zilov, J. N.  D.   IN:   Ultraviolet  Radiation,  Moscow, Medicina, 1971,




     pp 237-241.
                              XI-44

-------
                                                              Bibliography
   C.   Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-2  (Klein - UV-B  Measurements).


170    Goldberg, B. and Klein, W. H. (1974).  Radiometer to monitor low
           levels of ultraviolet irradiances.  Appl. Opt., L3 (3), 493-496.

171    Klein, W. H. and Goldberg, B. (1978).  Monitoring UV-B spectral
           irradiances at three latitudes.  Proc.  Internatl. Solar Energy
           Soc. Congress (Pergamon Press) !_, 400-413 (New Delhi, India,
           January).

172    Mo, T. and Green, A.E.S. (1974).  A climatology of solar erythema.
           dose.  Photochem. Photobiol., 20, 483-496.

       NAS - National Academy of Sciences. - (1979).  Report of the Committee
           on  Impacts O'f Stratospheric  Change, .Lri  "Protection Against
           Depletion of Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons."
           December, Washington, D.C.

173    National Bureau of Standards (1977).  Symposium on Ultraviolet
           Radiation Measurements for Environmental Protection and Public
           Safety, June 8-9, Gaithersburg, MD.

174    Setlow,  R. B. (1974).  The wavelengths in sunlight effective in
           producing skin cancer:  a theoretical analysis.  Proc. Nat.
           Acad. Sci. USA. 71. (9), 3363-3366.
                                    r
175    World Meteorological Organization (1977).  UNEP Meeting of Experts:
           Atmospheric Ozorje.  A survey of the current state of knowledge
           of  the ozone layer, March 1-9.  Washington,  D.C.
                                    Xl-45

-------
                                                              Bibliography
   D.  Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-3   (Biggs - Crops).


176    Biggs, R. H. and Kossuth, S. V. (1978).  Impact of solar UV-B
           radiation on crop productivity, Final report of UV-B biological
           and climate effects research.  Terrestrial.   FY 77.   Univ.
           Florida, Gainesville, Ft.

177    Biggs, R. H., Sisson, W. T., and Caldwell,  M.  M. (1975).  Response
           of higher terrestrial plants to elevated UV-B irradiance.  In;
           Nachtwey, D. S., Caldwell,  M. M., and Biggs, R. H.  (eds).
           Impacts of climatic change on the biosphere, CIAP Monograph 5,
           Part 1:  Ultraviolet radiation effects.  U.S. Dept.  Trans.,
           Springfield, VA, pp. 4-34 to 4-50.

178    Caldwell, M. M. (1977).  The effects of solar  UV-B radiation
           (280-315 nm) on higher plants:  Implications of stratospheric
           ozone reduction.  In:  Castellani, A. (ed).   Research in
           photobiology.   Plenum Publishing Corp., New  York, pp. 597-607.

179    Duncan, W.  G. (1971).  Leaf angles, leaf area,  and canopy
           photosynthesis.  Crop Science 11, 482-485.

       Evans, L. T. (ed)  (1975).  Crop Physiology. Cambridge Univ. Press,
           pp. 374.

180    Kossuth,  S. V.  and Biggs, R. H. (1978).  Sunburned blueberries.
           Fla.   State Hort.  Soc.  Proc. 91» 173-175.

131    Lindoo, S.  J.,  Seeley,  S. B.., and Caldwell, M.  M. (1979).  Effects
           of ultraviolet-B radiation  stress on the abscisic acid status o'
           Rumex patientia leaves.  Physiol. Plant. 45, 67-72.

182    Loomis, R.  S.,  Rabbinge, R., and Ng,  E. (1979).   Explanatory models
           in crop physiology.  Ann. Rev. PI. Physiol.  30,  339-367.

       NAS - National  Academy  of Sciences - (1979).  Report of  the  Committe
           on Impacts  of  Stratospheric Change, ij^  "Protection Against
           Depletion of Stratospheric  Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons."
           December,  Washington, D.C.

       Ormond, P., Hammer, A., Krizek, D. T., Tibbitts, T.  W.,  McFarlane,
           J. C.,  and  Langhans, R. W.  (1980).  Base-line growth studies  of
           "First  Lady" marigolds in controlled environments.   J.  Am.  Soc.
           Hort. Sci.  105, 632-638.

184    Robberecht, R.  and Caldwell, M. M. (1978).   Leaf epidermal
           transmittance  of ultraviolet radiation  and its implication  for
           plant sensitivity to ultraviolet-radiation induced injury.
           Oecologia 3_2,  277-287.
                                   Xl-46

-------
                                                           Bibliography
   E.  Bibliography to Effects Appendix F-4 (Damkaer - Marine).
185    .Damkaer,  D. M.,  Dey,  D. B.,  Heron,  G.  A., and  Prentice,  E.  F.
            (1980) .    Effects of  UV-B  radiation  on  near-surface
            zooplankton  of  Puget Sound.   Oecologia, 44,  149-158.

186    Hunter, J.  R.,  Taylor,  J. H.,  and  Moser, H. G.  (1979).  Effect of
            ultraviolet  irradiation on eggs and  larvae  of  the northern
            anchovy,  Eugraulis mordax, and the Pacific mackerel, Scomber
            japonicus^during  the  embryonic  stage.    Photochemistry and
            Photobiology, 29,  325-338.

187    Jitts,  H.  R.,  Morel, A. ,! and  Saijo,  Y.  (1976).  The  relation of
            oceanic  primary  production  to available  photosynthetic
            irradiance.  Aust. J..  Mar. Freshwater Res.,  27, 441-454.

188    Karanas,   J.   J.,  Van   Dyke,  H.,  and  Worrest,   R.  C.  (1979).
            Midultraviolet   (UV-B)  sensitivity  of  Acartia  clausii
            Giesbrecht (Copepoda) .   Limnol.  Oceanogr., 24 (6) ,  1104-1116.

189    Lorenzen,  C.  J. (1979).  Ultraviolet radiation and phytoplankton
            photosynthesis.   Limnol.  Oceanogr., ^_4_(6) , 1117-1120.

190    Nachtwey,  D.  S. (1976)  .  Potential effects on  aquatic  ecosystems
            of  increased  UV-B  radiation.    Proceedings of   the  Fourth
            Conference on  the Climatic Impact Assessment Program,  Hard,
            T.    M.    and   Broderick,   A.   J.,   eds.,   pp.  79-86.
            DOT-TST-OTS-75-38,  U.S.  Department  of  Transportation,
            Washington,  D.C.

       NAS-National  Academy of Sciences-(1979).   Report  of the Committee
            on  Impacts  of  Stratospheric Change  in_  "Protection against
            depletion of  stratospheric  ozone by  chlorofluorocarbons.
            Washington,  D.C.

191    Thomson,  B. E. ,  Worrest,  R.  C.,  and  Van  Dyke,  H. (1980).   The
            growth repsonse of an  estuarine  diatom  (Melpsira nummuloides
            [Dillw.]  Ag.)   to  UV-B (290-320  nm)  radiation.Estuaries,
            3(1),  69-72.
                                 XI-47

-------