United States
           Environmental Protection
           Agency
            Office of Research and
            Development
            Washington DC 20460
EPA/600/R-95/018
April 1995
svEPA
Stressor Data Sets for
Studying Species
Diversity at Large
Spatial Scales

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                                                            EPA/600/R-95/018
                                                                   April 1995
Stressor Data Sets for Studying Species Diversity at Large Spatial Scales
                                 by

                          James D. Wickham
                             Jianguo Wu
                        Desert Research Institute
                              Reno, NV

                                 and

                           David F. Bradford
               Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory
                  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                            Las Vegas, NV
               Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory
                  Office of Research and Development
                  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                      Las Vegas, NV 89193-3478
                                                          Printed on Recycled Paper

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                                         NOTICE

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, through its Office of Research and Development (ORD),
funded the extramural research described here under Cooperative Agreement CR-816385-01-0 with the
Desert Research Institute.  The research undertaken for this report was conducted in collaboration with
partners in the Biodiversity Research Consortium, which is comprised of the U.S. EPA, U.S. Forest
Service, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and The Nature Conservancy.  It has
been reviewed by the Agency and approved as an EPA publication.  Mention of trade names or
commercial products does  not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
                                            11

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                                       CONTENTS
                                                                                 Page
NOTICE	   ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	   v
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  	    vi

1.0    INTRODUCTION	   1

       1.1     Overview of the Biodiversity Research Consortium (BRC)  	   1
       1.2     Objectives of the Report  	   3
       1.3     Definitions of Stress and Stressors	   3

2.0    PATTERNS AND HYPOTHESES OF SPECIES RICHNESS  	   5

       2.1     Distributional Patterns of Species Richness	   5
       2.2     Hypotheses Explaining Distributional Patterns of
              Species Richness 	   7

3.0    FRAMEWORK FOR IDENTIFYING AND EVALUATING POTENTIAL STRESSORS  ...  12

       3.1     Stressor Categories	  12
       3.2     Scales at Which Stressors Operate  	  12
       3.3     Criteria for Selecting Stressor Data Sets   	   14
       3.4     A Consideration in Studying the Correlation Between
              Stressors and Species Richness	  14

4.0    EXISTING DATA FOR  IDENTIFYING STRESSORS	  16

       4.1     Habitat Fragmentation Data	  16
              4.1.1   Land Cover	  16
              4.1.2   Digital  Line Graphs (Roads)	  18
              4.1.3  Wetland and Riparian Habitat Loss	19
              4.1.4  Census Data	20
       4.2     Pollution Data	21
       4.3     Exotic Species Data   	21
       4.4     Data Sets for Non-Anthropogenic Factors   	24
              4.4.1  Historical Climatology Network (HCN)	24
              4.4.2  USGS  Digital  Elevation Model (DEM) 	25
              4.4.3  Federal Insect and Disease Conditions
                    and Wildland  Fire Statistics  	25

5.0    DISCUSSION AND SUMMARY	26

       5.1     Importance of Scale	26
       5.2     Proposed  Data Sets and Considerations in Examining
              Stressor-Species Relationships	26

6.0    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 	28

7.0    REFERENCES  	29


                                           iii

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                                          FIGURES
                                                                                       rage
Figure 1:  BRC Hexagonal Sampling Units	   2

Figure 2:  Species Richness Versus Latitude  	   6

Figure 3:  Species Richness Versus PET	   9

Figure 4:  Proposed Spatial Scales at which Species Richness Patterns Are
          Evident (A) and Associated Hypotheses (B)	  11



                                           TABLES	
                                                                                      Page

Table 1:  Definitions of Stress	   4

Table 2:  Data for Land Use and Habitat Fragmentation  	17

Table 3:  Population Change  (1980 to 1990) for Selected High Growth
         Counties in Pennsylvania and Oregon    	20

Table 4:  Pollution Data Sets	22

Table 5:  Data Sets for Exotic Species,  Including Managed Livestock
         and Grazing Practices   	      23

Table 6:  Data Sets for Non-Anthropogenic Factors	                     25

Table 7:  Data Proposed for Examination of Stressors-Species Relationships	27
                                             IV

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                                     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

There is increasing scientific and societal concern over the impact of anthropogenic activities (e.g.,
habitat destruction, pollution) on biodiversity.  The impact of anthropogenic activities on biodiversity is
generally recognized as a global phenomenon. At large spatial scales, several studies have shown
geographic patterns in species diversity, and these patterns have been most strongly linked to aspects
of climate and topography, not anthropogenic activities.  What is known about the impact of
anthropogenic activities on species diversity (and loss) is mostly from studies at much smaller spatial
scales (e.g., up to a few U.S. counties). This gap in knowledge poses  a challenge to the study of the
influence of stressors on species diversity patterns at large spatial scales (e.g., regions and continents).
Based on the literature,  stress is defined as the response of  a system  to a disturbance, and stressor is
the disturbance.  The purpose of this report is to review what is currently  known about factors that
influence distributional patterns of species richness, and to identify the appropriate stressor data sets to
evaluate the influence of stressors on patterns of species richness at large spatial scales.  This
research is being done for the interagency Biodiversity Research Consortium (BBC), which has been
formed to study species diversity patterns at large spatial scales.

Spatial patterns of species richness are found across a range of spatial scales.  These include
latitudinal gradients, elevation gradients, aridity gradients, species-area relationships, and more complex
microenvironmental patterns.  Several hypotheses of mechanisms controlling species richness patterns
are summarized  here, including (1) time, (2) origination-extinction dynamics, (3) available
energy/productivity (4) habitat heterogeneity, (5) disturbance,  and (6) niche  theory/species  interaction.
Particular patterns of  species diversity usually occur over a range of spatial scales. Therefore, different
patterns and mechanisms should be expected on disparate scales.  Based  on this scale distinction, we
have organized the hypotheses according to scales at which they are likely to operate. Time,
origination-extinction dynamics,  and available energy/productivity are likely to operate over the entire
range of spatial scales from local to global. Habitat heterogeneity and disturbance operate
predominantly at local to regional scales.  Niche theory/species interaction operates primarily at local
scales.

Anthropogenic stressors are most relevant to the habitat heterogeneity  and disturbance hypotheses.
Stressors (both anthropogenic and  non-anthropogenic) are likely to predominate at local and regional
scales.  In addition, it is proposed that stressors can be separated into  four basic categories: habitat
fragmentation, pollution, exotic species, and non-anthropogenic factors. Inclusion of data representing
each of these categories is necessary to gain a more complete understanding of the relationship
between stressors and species diversity. For instance, several studies have shown that habitat
fragmentation can lead to species extirpation, but none of these studies has included other stressor
data (e.g., drought, extreme temperatures,  pollution) to determine the relative contribution of each in
explaining species diversity patterns.  For each category, two data sets are proposed for evaluation of
the influence of stressors on species richness for the conterminous U.S.  For habitat fragmentation,
road density and wetland loss are proposed.  Other metrics of habitat fragmentation, such  as patch
size, are being developed elsewhere within the BRC. For pollution, data  on tissue concentration in
selected species  are proposed,  as well as stream and lake pH measurements.  For exotic species, data
from The Nature  Conservancy's (TNC) Heritage Data Base are proposed.  Data on livestock grazing
intensity are also recommended. For non-anthropogenic factors, climate  data are proposed for the
development of departures from averages. Use of topographic data are also proposed. Topography
does not represent a stressor per se, but information on it is needed to establish baseline  conditions.

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                                   ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Earlier drafts of this report benefitted from the comments of Drs. Dennis Jelinski of University of
Nebraska (Lincoln, Nebraska), Orie Loucks of Miami University (Oxford, Ohio), and Raymond O'Connor
of University of Maine (Orono, Maine), and discussions with Drs. Ross  Kiester, Raymond O'Connor,
Eric Preston, and Denis White. Timothy Wade provided GIS support and valuable advice on many
technical points.

Linda Piehl provided administrative support.
                                            VI

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                                     1.0  INTRODUCTION
1.1     OVERVIEW OF THE BIODIVERSITY
RESEARCH CONSORTIUM (BRC)

       The  U.S.   Environmental   Protection
Agency's  (USEPA)  Science  Advisory  Board
(SAB) has identified habitat and species loss as
serious ecological problems in the United States
(USEPA 1990).  In response to the SAB's finding,
the USEPA formed  the  Biodiversity Research
Consortium (BRC) in 1993 in  cooperation with
several federal and non-governmental agencies,
including the  U.S.  Fish and  Wildlife  Service
(USFWS), the U.S.  Forest Service (USFS), the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and The Nature
Conservancy (TNC).   BRC  has four  primary
objectives (sensu Kiester et al. 1993):

1)  To analyze  biodiversity nationwide;

2)  To search for correlations  between species
    diversity,    environmental   diversity,   and
    stressor information;

3)  To  evaluate  the   comparative  risk  to
    biodiversity  using   species   diversity,
    environmental   diversity,    and  stressor
    information; and

4)  To   begin   developing   approaches   to
    managing environmental diversity in order to
    achieve species diversity goals.
    To accomplish  these objectives,  BRC will
compile species occurrence using TNC's heritage
data base and other sources, and use USEPA's
hexagonal  grid,  originally developed for the
Environmental   Monitoring  and  Assessment
Program (EMAP), as the basis for data collection
and analysis (Kiester  et al. 1993).  The EMAP
grid is  made up of  640 km2  hexagons that
completely cover the conterminous United States
(Figure 1).   Vertebrate species richness will be
used as the  measure of biodiversity by the BRC.
A  generally accepted definition of  biodiversity
(Noss 1990) is "the variety and variability of life
and the  ecological complexes  in  which  they
occur"  (U.S. Congress  Office  of  Technology
Assessment (OTA) 1987). Species richness is a
measure of  the  variety of different organisms.
Species diversity includes both the variety and
variability  of different  organisms.   Species,
environmental, and stressor data will be compiled
for each hexagon and analyzed using multivariate
statistical techniques to meet objectives 1, 2, and
3. The results of the multivariate analyses will be
used to address the fourth objective.

    BRC's  focus  on  nationwide patterns of
biodiversity is based partly on previous work that
has shown the existence  of  continental scale
patterns of  species richness (Simpson  1964,
Kiester  1971,  Currie  1991).   These studies
highlighted patterns that are not  observable at
smaller spatial scales (Kiester et al. 1993).  The
national level focus also helps to link the first
three analysis-based objectives with the fourth,
management-oriented objective.

    BRC is organized into four functional groups:
species, landscape, stressors, and analysis.  The
species team is responsible  for  compiling the
species data for each hexagon. The landscape
team   is   responsible   for   development  of
environmental diversity measures  from remotely
sensed data. Many of these  metrics will come
from studies of landscape pattern  and dynamics
(O'Neill et al. 1988, Turner et al. 1991).  AVHRR
satellite data will be used at the outset to derive
these  measures.    The  stressors  team is
responsible  for  the  development  of measures,
outside those developed by the landscape team,
which are  likely to influence geographic patterns
of species richness. Once completed, the three
teams will  provide their data to the  analysis team,
who will conduct the multivariate analyses using
species, landscape, and stressor data.

    This report reviews what is currently known
about the relationships between  stressors and
species diversity.  Information on the relationship
between stressors and species diversity patterns
is important to achieving BRC's objectives 2 and
3. BRC has initiated pilot studies in Pennsylvania
and  Oregon to evaluate  data quality  and test
proposed  methods.  The results  of the  pilot
studies will be used to guide the  national effort.
Where possible, examples will  make reference to
Pennsylvania and Oregon.

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ro
                                    Figure  1:  BRC Hexagonal  Sampling  Units

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1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT

    The objectives of  this report  are  four-fold.
The first  is to  review the extensive body of
literature on anthropogenic and natural  factors
that influence geographic patterns  of species
richness. A review and synthesis of this literature
provides a starting point to develop a framework
for selecting stressor data sets. The second is to
develop  a comprehensive  framework for  the
selection of appropriate stressor data sets. The
third objective is to survey and select existing
stressor   data,   based  on   the  framework
developed.  The fourth objective is to examine,
to the  degree possible, the quality of  the data.
Since  the  analyses  proposed  by  BRC  are
correlative, information on data quality is critically
important.

    Error propagation is an important component
of data quality analysis.  Error propagation, in
regard to stressor data sets  and BRC,  is the
impact of error in collection and compilation of
data on  measurements  derived from  the data
and, subsequently, on interpretation of results
showing relationships  between stressors  and
species diversity.  However, error propagation is
an  empirical   phenomenon   that   must  be
investigated on a case by case basis,  since the
collection methods are different for each data set.
The impact of error in any given data set on
derived  measurements   and   interpretation  of
results is more  appropriately  addressed during
data analysis. Discussion of data quality will not
extend to error propagation in  this  report.

1.3 DEFINITIONS OF STRESS AND
    STRESSORS

    One of the goals of BRC  is to evaluate the
comparative  risk to biodiversity  using species
diversity, environmental  diversity,  and stressor
information  (sensu   Kiester   et   al.  1993).
Unfortunately, the term stress has not been used
consistently in  the ecological  literature  (Rykiel
1985). For example, stress has been defined as
a  prevailing,  unfavorable condition to  which
organisms  respond (e.g.,  Larcher  1980), or the
response   of   an  organism  to   prevailing
environmental conditions, either  favorable  or
unfavorable (e.g.,  Odum et  al.  1979,  Barrett
1981,  Rykiel  1985).   A  list of definitions by
different authors is given in Table 1.

    The  definitions  by Odum  et.  al.  (1979),
Barrett (1981), and Rykiel  (1985) are consistent
in that each defines stress as an  effect, not a
prevailing condition  (e.g.,  Larcher 1980).  For
example, stress is the  effect of a disturbance
(e.g., pollution, fragmentation)  on a  biological
entity or process, not disturbance itself.   The
definition  of  stress  as  an  effect  is  most
appropriate  for  BRC because  of its goal to
evaluate comparative risk to biodiversity. USEPA
defined risk assessment as the evaluation of the
likelihood of adverse ecological effects as a result
of exposure to stressors (Norton et al.  1992). In
the context of BRC, stress  may manifest itself as
a change in species richness.

    The definition of stress by Barrett (1981) is
the  most clear and explicitly  uses  the term
stressor. Barrett  (1981) defined stressor  as the
agent (e.g., prolonged drought) which causes a
physical  or functional effect.   Barrett's  (1981)
definition  is   also  valuable  because   it  (1)
distinguishes   anthropogenic   from   natural
stressors and (2) identified natural  factors as
stressors only when  applied at excessive levels
(e.g.,  prolonged  drought).    Rykiel's   (1985)
definition of  disturbance  -   a  physical  force,
agent, or process, either abiotic or biotic, causing
a stress in an ecological component or system
is consistent with Barrett's (1981) definiton of
stressor.   For BRC, stressors are quantitative
measures of disturbance which can be used to
explain geographic patterns in species richness.

    Odum et al. (1979) distinguished stress as
having only negative effects and  reserves the
term "subsidy" to connote positive effects.  We do
not necessarily recommend making a  distinction
between stress and  subsidy, and stress  will be
used herein to include both positive and negative
effects. The reason is not  to introduce additional
terminology.

    The  definitions  of  stress by Odum et al.
(1979), Barrett  (1981), and Rykiel   (1985) all
indicate that stress must be measured against a
reference condition.  An  example of using a
reference condition is that species and stressor
data are measured over time so that changes in

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the species and stressors data can be used to
determine  the  impact of stressors  on species
richness.  Although this method seems valid and
feasible,  it requires  time  series  data.   An
alternative (or complimentary) approach is to use
natural spatial patterns of species richness that
are found in relatively undisturbed environments
or predicted by validated theories as reference
                       conditions.   When  appreciable differences  in
                       species   distributional   patterns   in   similar
                       environments and at similar scales are detected,
                       stressor data may be used to evaluate the effect
                       of disturbances on  species richness.   This is
                       essentially a space-for-time  method, which has
                       long been used in ecological studies (see Pickett
                       1989).
                                  Table 1:  Definitions of Stress
   Author

   Larcher(1980)




   Odumetal. (1979)

   Barrett (1981)



   Rykiel (1985)
Definition

Stress: the exposure to extraordinarily unfavorable conditions; they need
not necessarily represent a threat to  life, but they do trigger an "alarm"
response (e.g., defensive and adaptive reactions) in the organism if it is
not in a dormant state.

Stress:  deviation from nominal; unfavorable deflections.

Stress:  a perturbation that is applied  to a system by a stressor which is
foreign to that system or which may be natural to it but, in the instance
concerned, is applied at an excessive level.

Stress:  an effect; a physiological or  functional effect; the physiological
response of an individual, or the functional response of a system caused
by  disturbance or other ecological  process;  relative to a reference
condition; characterized by direction, magnitude, and persistence; a type
of perturbation.

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                  2.0 PATTERNS AND HYPOTHESES OF SPECIES RICHNESS
    The study of the distributional  patterns of
species  richness  is  an  important  step  to
understanding the relationship between biological
diversity and underlying ecological factors and
processes.  This relationship is fundamental to
conservation  biology  in  general  and  the
identification of  stressors  in  particular.   The
distributional patterns of species richness found
in natural  or semi-natural ecological systems on
different  scales  may  serve  as  one  kind  of
baseline  condition,  against which changes in
species richness can be  detected in relation to
anthropogenic stressors. In this section, we shall
discuss several  major geographic  patterns of
species richness and  hypotheses of mechanisms,
which  serves  as a  conceptual  basis for later
sections.

2.1 DISTRIBUTIONAL PATTERNS OF
    SPECIES RICHNESS

    The pattern of species richness distribution in
time and space has  been a major theme in both
ecology and biogeography for several decades
(e.g., Pianka 1966, MacArthur 1965, MacArthur
and Wilson  1967,   Loucks 1970, Brown and
Gibson 1983, Begon  et al. 1986, Hall et al. 1992,
Currie 1991, Wu and Vankat 1991, 1994, Tilman
and Pacala 1993).      Several geographical
patterns have been documented across a range
of spatial  scales.  For terrestrial systems, the
patterns include gradual,  sometimes monotonic,
changes  in species richness along  physical
environmental gradients (e.g., latitude, elevation)
on  large  scales,  as  well  as more complex
patterns  that  are determined  by  both  local
physical factors and biotic interactions on smaller
scales. There have been several recent reviews
of the patterns of  species richness for plants,
animals,  and microbial organisms (e.g.,  Krebs
1985,  Begon et al. 1986, Brown 1988, Ricklefs
and Schluter  1993,  Orians 1994).   Here, we
compile a list of the major spatial  patterns of
species   richness    with    related   hypotheses
pertinent to explaining the patterns (cf. MacArthur
1965, Pianka 1966, MacArthur and Wilson 1967,
Brown and  Gibson  1983,  Brown 1988, Orians
1994, Wu  and Vankat 1994).
Latitudinal gradient. Species richness tends to
decrease  with  increasing  latitude from  the
equator to the poles, though the relationship is
not monotonic for most  taxonomic groups of
organisms  (Figure 2).   This pattern  appears
equally general for plants, animals, and microbes,
and has been well documented  in the literature
(e.g., Fischer 1960, Simpson 1964, Cook 1969,
Kiester 1971, MacArthur 1972, Currie 1991).

Elevation gradient. Species richness decreases
with  increasing elevation for  most organisms.
The elevation gradient of species richness is also
rather  general,   and  has  been  fairly   well
documented  (Yoda 1967, Glenn-Lewin 1977,
Brown  1988).

Aridity gradient.   Species richness decreases
with increasing aridity across a geographic region
or a continent.   A striking example is in the
temperate Eurasian continent where the number
of plant species  declines dramatically  as  one
moves westward, across the north-south oriented
vegetation zones,  from  the deciduous forest, to
forest steppe, to typical steppe, and to desert.
An aridity  gradient often interacts  with other
gradients like elevation, which complicates the
species richness patterns and their interpretation
(Brown  1973,  Whittaker  and  Niering  1965,
Glenn-Lewin 1977, Brown 1988).
Species-Area relationship.  Species richness
tends to increase monotonically with habitat area.
A widely cited mathematical expression is of the
form: S = cAz, or, log S = z log A + log c, where
S  is species richness,  A is area, and c and z
are positive constants,  c  usually reflects the
effect  of  geographical variation on  species
richness, and z  usually varies between 0.18 and
0.35. This relationship  has  long been found in
numerous  studies   of  terrestrial  community
ecology and island biogeography (e.g., Preston
1962, MacArthur and Wilson 1967,  Williamson
1988, Wu 1989). The spatial scales on which
this  relationship  is most likely to hold are  from
local communities  (e.g., 10 - 10s unit area) to
landscapes (104   109 unit area) (Auerbach  and

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                                                              REPHIJA
35    45     55      65    75      25

                         N LATITUDE
          35    45
55
65    75
Rgure 2:  Species richness versus latitude.  Reproduced with permission from Currie (1991),
American Naturalist, 137(1):27-49, University of Chicago Press.
and  Shmida  1987).   The  effect  of  area on
species richness seems to disappear  at larger
spatial scales, such as continents (see Currie
1991).

Microenvironmental pattern.  Species richness
exhibits gradient-like changes or more complex
patterns on local, small scales in  response to
variations  in  abiotic  and biotic environments.
Numerous  studies   have  demonstrated   the
importance  of  biological   processes  (e.g.,
competition, predation, mutualism) on species
                                 richness through mechanisms  such as niche
                                 differentiation and competitive  exclusion (e.g.,
                                 Schoener 1974, 1988, Shmida and Wilson 1985,
                                 Auerbach  and Shmida  1987,  Tilman  1993).
                                 Spatial patterns of species richness correlated
                                 with local-scale physical environmental conditions
                                 (e.g.,   soil   properties,   micrometerological
                                 conditions) have been well documented for plant
                                 species (e.g., Qoodall  1970,  Tilman  1982,
                                 Qreig-Smith  1983, Wu 1992), but much  less for
                                 animals and  microbes.

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2.2 Hypotheses Explaining Distributional
    Patterns of Species Richness
    Several  hypotheses  that  invoke  various
mechanisms  have been proposed to explain the
observed spatial patterns of species richness on
different scales (see Pianka 1966, Loucks 1970,
Brown and Gibson 1983,  Krebs 1985, Brown
1988,  Currie  1991).    These  include  time,
origination-extinction   dynamics,   available
energy/productivity,   habitat   heterogeneity,
disturbance, and niche theory/species interaction.
In the following sections,  we shall summarize
these  hypotheses   by  providing  a  concise
description of their essential elements with a few
relevant references.  Then, a synthesis will be
given  based  on  a  hierarchical  and  scale
perspective.

Time hypothesis.  Species richness  increases
with  time  because  longer  time allows   both
colonization and speciation to operate which in
turn  result  in  more  diverse  biotas.    This
hypothesis has been applied on both  ecological
(102 years) and  evolutionary (106  years)  time
scales. Time was first proposed as a hypothesis
to explain the decrease in species richness with
increasing latitude,  in which tropical areas were
thought to have more time to diversify because of
the absence of the  glaciation that took place at
temperate    latitudes    (e.g.,   Fischer  1960).
However,  there is little direct evidence available,
and it is extremely difficult to test the hypothesis
for evolutionary or  geological time scales.   At
local  spatio-temporal scales,  it seems generally
acceptable that the longer the time  since last
disturbance,  the more  species  are  likely  to
colonize (Pickett and  White 1985, Pickett  et al.
1987).

Origination-extinction  dynamics hypothesis.
Species  richness is  a  result  of the  balance
between species origination (colonization  and
speciation) and extinction, and,  therefore, the
patterns of species richness may be explained by
the  differences  in  these  processes.    This
hypothesis also  involves  both  ecological  and
evolutionary time-scales, and has been used to
explain species richness patterns from the local
community to the continental and global levels
(MacArthur  and  Wilson  1967,  Pielou  1979,
Benton 1987, Brown 1988).  On ecological time
scales,  the  theory  of  island  biogeography
(Munroe  1948,  1953, MacArthur  and  Wilson
1967) asserts that  the  number of species in
insular  habitats  is  determined  primarily by
colonization and extinction rates which in turn are
affected by habitat area and distance to the
colonizing source.   While the theory has been
criticized on several grounds (Wu  and  Vankat
1994), there have been many studies of oceanic
and terrestrial habitat islands supporting the basic
idea of colonization-extinction dynamics (e.g.,
Pickett  and  Thompson  1978,  Burgess  and
Sharpe 1981, Harris 1984, Wu 1989).  There has
been  little  direct evidence, however, for the
applicability of this hypothesis at continental and
global scales or on evolutionary and geological
times (Benton 1987, Brown 1988).
Available  energy/productivity  hypothesis.
Species  richness  proliferates with increasing
energy  availability  in  the  environment.    At
regional (10s - 1013 m2 cf. Auerbach and Shmida
1987) and continental scales, it has been shown
that species richness is a function of  available
energy  or  primary productivity  (Wright  1983,
Currie  1991,  Hall et al. 1992).  Based on the
species-area  relationship  and  the  equilibrium
theory  of island  biogeography,  Wright (1983)
developed a "species-energy theory."  The core
of the theory is represented by the mathematical
formulation, S = kEz,   where S is the species
richness,  E is the total production of  available
energy, and  k and z  are constants.   Wright
(1983)  found that available energy, measured as
total   actual   evapotranspiration   (AET)   for
angiosperms  and total  net primary production
(NPP)  for breeding land and freshwater birds,
was able to account for 70-80% of the variation
in species richness on islands  ranging  from
Greenland and Spitsbergen to New Guinea and
Jamaica.  Currie  (1991) demonstrated that, for
the four vertebrate classes in North America he
studied  (birds,  mammals,  amphibians,   and
reptiles),  annual   potential  evapotranspiration
(PET)  alone  accounted  for  80-90%  of the
variability in  species  richness  (Figure 3).  At
smaller scales, on the other  hand,  empirical
studies (especially in plant community  ecology)

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have shown that species richness decreases with
increasing   community   productivity   (e.g.,
Whteside and Harmsworth  1967,  Rosenzweig
1968,  Tilman  1982,  1993).   Therefore,  the
interpretation of, and mechanisms involved in this
hypothesis  is scale-dependent.

Habitat heterogeneity hypothesis.  Species
richness  increases  with  habitat heterogeneity
which reflects the diversity and variability in the
structure,   function  and   dynamics   of  the
environment organisms live in. Among the first,
Williams  (1964) asserted that the species-area
relationship results  from  a  positive correlation
existing between area and habitat diversity and
between  habitat diversity and species diversity.
High habitat heterogeneity usually supports more
species by providing more habitat types and
reducing local extinctions  caused by adverse
biotic  interactions  such  as competition and
predation.   There has been ample supporting
evidence for the  habitat heterogeneity-species
richness  relationship (Cody 1974, Tilman 1982,
1993, Shmida and Wilson 1985, Boecklen 1986).
Recent studies of patch dynamics at the local
and landscape scales have shown the effects of
spatial heterogeneity on  species  richness  by
emphasizing the interactions between pattern and
process  (Picket!  and Thompson  1978,  Steele
1978,  Pickett  and White  1985, Auerbach and
Shmida 1987, Wu et al. 1992, Levin et al. 1993).

Moderate disturbance/stress hypothesis. The
highest species richness usually occurs where
disturbance or stress  is intermediate (Connell
1978). Disturbance often creates structural and
functional heterogeneity in time  and space, and
promotes the coexistence of species by  directly
suppressing destabilizing biotic interactions (e.g.,
intense interspecific competition and predation) or
by  providing regeneration niches.  A number of
empirical and theoretical studies on scales from
local communities to regional landscapes support
this notion (Loucks 1970,  Grime 1973, Connell
1978,  Huston  1979,  Suffling   et  al.  1988).
However,   the   terms    "moderate"  and
"intermediate"  seem ambiguous and, therefore,
have  been used  largely in a qualitative sense.
The patch  dynamics  perspective  in ecology
(Pickett and White 1985, Wu and Loucks 1992)
has  provided  a  new   and  comprehensive
framework for studying the effects of disturbance
on species richness at population and community
levels.

Niche theory/species interaction hypothesis.
Species  richness  in  a  biotic community is  a
function of the number  of niches;  interspecific
interactions such as competition, predation, and
mutualism  may promote  species  proliferation
through modifying  niche relations (Brown 1988,
Schoener 1988).   The  study  of  interactions
between species diversity and niche relations has
been a central theme in both theoretical and field
community ecology for the past several decades
(e.g., Schoener 1974, 1988, Cody and Diamond
1975, Krebs  1985).   In particular,  it has  been
suggested that interspecific competition facilitates
niche differentiation,  while  predation  reduces
competition among prey  species which in turn
reduces the probability of  competitive exclusion
(e.g., Paine 1966,  Connell 1978, Hubbell 1980,
Brown 1988).

    The  above  hypotheses  are not  mutually
exclusive, but are complimentary to each other.
Evidence supporting  one  hypothesis does not
imply that others are not valid.  Indeed, multiple
hypotheses  are usually  necessary  to  better
account  for an observed species distribution
pattern.    In  most  cases,  each  hypothesis
represents  only one  of several   explanations
(Brown  1988).  On  the  other hand, overlap
among some of the hypotheses  is evident. For
example, time, be it ecological or evolutionary, is
critical  in  the origination-extinction  dynamics
hypothesis since dispersal and speciation are
considered essential. Also, the hypotheses about
habitat  heterogeneity, disturbance,  and  niche
theory/species   interactions   are   interrelated
conceptually  and  practically.   Disturbance  is
important in both creation and maintenance  of
habitat heterogeneity, which  in turn affects the
disturbance regime itself (Pickett and White 1985,
Kolasa  and  Pickett  1991).    Both  habitat
heterogeneity  and  disturbance interact with
species and  population dynamics.   In concert,
these three hypotheses may account for many, if
not  most, species richness  patterns on  small
scales.    The  interaction  among  the  three
hypotheses    is   best   exemplified   by  the
regeneration niche theory  which has been

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      200-


      100
  w   enj
  (0   50H
  UJ
AVES
                                                90-
                                      50-
                                                 10-
MAMMALIA
                                                50-
                                                10-1
                                                 5-

                                                 1-

                                                 0
                                                    REFT1UA
                500     1000    1500   2000
                                               500     1000    1500    2000
                         POTENTIAL  EVAPOTOANSPIRAT1ON
                                          (mm • yr -
Figure 3: Species Richness versus PET. Reproduced with permission from Currie (1991), American
Naturalist, 137(1):27-49, University of Chicago Press.
evidenced by numerous studies at the community
level (Grubb 1977, Pickett and White 1985, Wu
and Levin 1994).

   One of the problems in the study of biological
diversity has  been the lack of  a conceptual
framework to integrate information obtained from
numerous   ecological  and   biogeographical
observations  on  a  wide  range  of  scales.
Available energy  and  its  allocation across
different organizational levels may serve as a
basis for developing a general theory of species
richness (see Brown 1981, Wright 1983, Currie
1991, Hall et al. 1992). Towards this end, Hall et
                                      al. (1992) has recently developed an integrative
                                      framework for the distribution and abundance of
                                      organisms using energy cost and gain analysis.

                                         Importantly, any general theory must take a
                                      hierarchical and scale perspective that explicitly
                                      considers  the   multiplicity  of   the  various
                                      mechanisms that operate on different temporal,
                                      spatial and  organizational  levels.   Based  on
                                      previous  studies,  we propose a hierarchical
                                      structure to  relate  both  the  patterns  and
                                      hypotheses of species richness to spatial scales
                                      (Figure  4).   We  divide  spatial scales into
                                      continental, regional, and local domains. Based

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on the research design adopted by BRC, the
continental scale corresponds to all the hexagons
that make up the conterminous U.S. (see Figure
1).   The regional scale corresponds to some
logical subset of the hexagons, such as those of
an ecoregion (e.g.,  Omernik 1987).  The local
scale denotes a range in spatial dimension from
a single  hexagon to a small subset,  such as
those that comprise  the  Delaware-Maryland-
Virginia (DelMarVA) Peninsula.

    It is  important  to notice  that a  particular
pattern of species richness usually occurs over a
certain range of spatial scales, and, therefore,
different  patterns and mechanisms  should be
expected on disparate scales.  In other words,
the hypotheses of mechanisms regarding species
richness patterns have to be scale-dependent. In
particular, at very  large (e.g.,  continental or
global) scales,  the available energy  in  the
environment   seems   to   be   the   ultimate
determinant of the number of species, although
the specific  measure of available energy  may
vary with taxonomic group (see Wright 1983,
Currie 1991).  That is, the maximum or potential
species  richness is constrained  by  energetics
on  large  scales.    Brown  (1981)  conveyed
essentially the same idea using the term
"capacity rules." However,  to  fully explain the
large-scale patterns of species richness, other
hypotheses   such   as  time   and
origination-extinction dynamics  must be invoked,
because  processes   like   colonization  and
speciation take time and history can be just as
important  as anything else.   The  number  of
species on smaller scales, on the other hand, is
primarily determined by energy partitioning and
balance. This is consistent  with Brown's (1981)
concept of "allocation  rules."   Any factors and
processes that affect the energy allocation among
species thus may influence the  distribution  of
species richness.  On landscape or regional
scales, spatial heterogeneity and disturbance are
important,  whereas on local  scales species
interactions,   disturbances,   and
microenvironmental factors  most likely become
the determinants of species richness.   Indeed,
the pluralism in mechanisms and multiplicity in
scale may  have been significant sources  of
controversy and confusion in the study of species
richness in particular and biodiversity in general.
A hierarchical approach as  illustrated here may
facilitate the examination  of the relationships
among different patterns and mechanisms and,
therefore,   the   development   of   a   more
comprehensive  understanding   of  species
richness.
                                             10

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                                                       Latitudinal gradient
                                               Aridity gradient
                                 Blevational gradient
                  Species-area relationships
         Ifioroenvlronment pattern*
                                                                      (A)
                Local
  Regional
Contto6ntal/Global
                                        Time
                              Origination-extinction dynamics
                               Available energy/Productivity
                       Habitat heterogeneity
                          Disturbance
         Flche theory/
         special interaction
                                                                      OB)
               Local
Regional
                                   Spatial Scale
Figure 4:  Proposed spatial scales at which species richness patterns are
evident (40 and associated hypotheses OB).
                                      11

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       3.0 FRAMEWORK FOR IDENTIFYING AND EVALUATING POTENTIAL STRESSORS
    The  previous  section  summarized major
empirical patterns and  mechanisms of  species
richness. However, there has not been a parallel
conceptualization of the influence of stressors on
species richness patterns.  For example, there
are  no  studies known  to the  authors  that
simultaneously examined the influence of natural
factors   (e.g.,  climate   and   topography)  in
conjuction with habitat fragmentation data over a
range of spatial scales.  In this section we  shall
propose  a conceptual framework for  identifying
and evaluating stressor data.   The framework
includes  the following elements:  categories  of
stressors, spatial  scales at   which  stressors
operate,  criteria for selection  of stressor  data
sets,  and  methodological  considerations for
studying  relationships  between stressors and
species richness and among stressors.

3.1 STRESSOR CATEGORIES

    Based on literature and communication with
experts, Finch (1992) compiled a list of threats to
56  bird and  mammal species  across  the five
states  of Wyoming,  Colorado, South  Dakota,
Nebraska, and Kansas.  The threats identified
were:   (1) agricultural  conversion,  (2) timber
harvesting, (3) livestock industry, overgrazing, (4)
fire  suppression,   (5)  accidental  pesticide
poisoning,  (6)  pest  and predator control, (7)
overharvesting (trapping and hunting), (8) human
disturbance,  (9) mining, energy  development,
(10) competition (brood parasitism), (11) loss of
specialized habitat (wetland/riparian) (12) habitat
fragmentation, and (13) causes undetermined.
Other   researchers   have   also  identified
urbanization, desertification, ozone depletion, acid
rain, global  warming, and  introduced  species
(Hodges 1977, Ehrlich and  Ehrlich 1981, Soul6
and Kohm 1989, Barker and Tingey 1992). All of
these  can be  broadly  categorized as  human
disturbance.

    Stressors affecting species diversity can be
grouped   into   four   categories:      habitat
fragmentation, pollution,  introduction of exotic
species,  and  non-anthropogenic  disturbances.
Agricultural conversion,  timber  harvesting, and
loss  of  wetlands   and  riparian   habitats,
urbanization,  and  desertification   all  can be
included  in a more general category of habitat
fragmentation.   Pollution  includes  the  threats
posed by pesticide use (herbicides,  insecticides
and rodenticides), acid rain, ozone depletion, and
global warming. Mining and energy development
include aspects of both habitat fragmentation and
pollution.  Livestock grazing  can be included in
the exotic species category (see Section 4.3).

   Overlaid   on   these   human-induced
disturbances   is   a  fourth   category,   non-
anthropogenic  stressors,  that  contribute  to
geographic patterns in species diversity.  Using
Barrett's  (1981)  definition of a  stressor as  a
disturbance foreign to the system or natural to
the  system  but   applied at unusual  levels,
examples of  non-anthropogenic  stress  include
severe  weather   or  climatic   events,  man-
precipitated or suppressed fires, and some pest
outbreaks.  In contrast,  prevailing climatic  and
topographic conditions are part  of  the  system
where organisms live.

3.2 SCALES  AT WHICH STRESSORS
   OPERATE

   Three scales  for  examination  of species-
stressors relationships were identified in Section
2.0:  the scale of one or  just a few hexagons
(local), many hexagons covering an entire region
(regional); and the entire  conterminous United
States (continental). The identification of scales
on  which  stressors  operate is important to
understanding the scope of stressors and their
effects on species diversity.

(1)  Habitat   Fragmentation.     Habitat
fragmentation has been cited by many as posing
the  most serious threat  to  biodiversity (NRC
1982, Noss 1983,1987. Harris 1984, Wilcoxand
Murphy 1985, Wilcove et al. 1986, Wilcove 1987,
Soul<§ and Kohm 1989, Dobkin 1992). Wilcove et
al. (1986) have defined habitat fragmentation as
"transformation of a large expanse of habitat into
a  number of smaller patches of smaller  total
area, isolated from each  other by  a matrix of
habitat unlike the original."   Do measures of
habitat  fragmentation  show  correlations  with
species diversity at continental, regional and local
                                              12

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scales?  Many of the empirical studies on the
effects of habitat  fragmentation have been  at
what we refer to here as a local scale.  The study
by Lynch and Whigham (1984) of the effects  of
forest fragmentation on breeding birds covered
roughly a 100x100 km area over six counties in
Maryland.  The studies by Bolger et  al.  (1991)
and Soul6 et. al.  (1992) on the effect of habitat
fragmentation of chaparral species was restricted
to coastal San Diego County.   Studies  of the
effect of fragmentation on red squirrel  (Verboom
and  van  Apeldoorn  1990)  and   other small
mammals (Bennett 1990) covered 150 km2 and
105  km2, respectively.   Lauga and  Joachim's
(1992) study of forest fragmentation on breeding
birds covered 2327 km2.   Lyon's  (1979, 1983)
study  of the  impact on  road  density on elk
covered about 205 km2, and a similar study  by
Thiel (1985) on  gray wolf covered  about  13
counties in northern Wisconsin.  Empirical studies
have largely  been  restricted  to  local scales.
Given that habitat conversion has occurred over
larger regions (e.g., agricultural conversion in the
American Midwest), it is also logical that there is
a relationship  between  species diversity  and
fragmentation at a regional scale.

(2) Pollution.    Newman  et al.  (1992) have
suggested   that  animal  species  diversity  is
affected by pollution at local and regional levels.
The range of scales at which pollution  is likely to
impact   species  diversity  is the  result  of the
combination of the extent of the release of the
pollutant,  the  effect the  pollutant has on  a
particular species, and the geographic range  of
the species.  For  example,  blindness in big horn
sheep  populations   of  the  San Bernardino
Mountains has been attributed to ozone transport
from the Los Angeles Basin (Light 1973).  This is
an example  of a local effect  resulting from a
more regionally distributed stressor. In contrast,
region-wide pollution from acidic deposition has
caused region-wide decline in  aquatic diversity
(Dickson 1986).  Pesticides  are released over
large  regions  of  the  United  States.    The
contiguous states of Nebraska, Minnesota,.Iowa,
Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio  are  in the  top ten  in
application of pesticides (Waddell et  al.  1988).
Thus, pesticide use could affect species diversity
patterns at regional scales.
(3) Exotic Species.  The work on modeling the
rate of spread of an invading organism provides
some insight into scale characteristics of species
introductions. Much of the work has been based
on  diffusion  models   (see  Skellam   1951,
Roughgarden 1986, Hengeveld 1989, Andow et
al. 1990).  These models predict species spread
by assuming biological movement to be similar to
random brownian motion. The rate of spread is
a function of the species intrinsic growth rate and
a diffusion coefficient. The models seem to work
well (see Andow et al. 1990)  when applied to
species   for   which   habitat   and  abiotic
requirements can  be  relaxed (e.g.  cabbage
butterfly, muskrat).

   The models have not been applied to a suite
of species representing  a range habitat and
abiotic requirements and a range of possible
outcomes of introductions (i.e., failure to establish
widespread   distribution).     Most  introduced
species do not become established.  Lindroth
(1957) observed that only a minority of European
insects have invaded North America  and few
have  spread from  their  liberation point.  Mayr
(1965) has observed the same pattern for birds;
and  Mitchell (1978) notes that  no  European
conifers that have been planted as ornamentals
in North America have established populations
outside their  points  of  introduction.    Other
examples  also show the importance of habitat
and the physical environment  in  restricting the
spread of invaders (Hengeveld 1989). Melaleuca
and  Brazilian pepper, though widespread in
south  Florida, are  restricted in their northward
migration  by cold  temperature (Ewell  1986).
Many of the escaped cage birds in  southerly U.S.
urban  environments (e.g., Miami,  Los Angeles)
have   not  spread  beyond  urban  boundaries
because  they   require   the  planted,  tropical
ornamental trees for food  and shelter (Orians
1986). Gray squirrels, introduced  into California
from  the  east,  are  successful only  in  urban
environments   where   xeric  conditions  are
overridden (Mooney et al. 1986).

    Modeling studies highlight that biological
invasions  can  spread  over continents  when
habitat and/or  constraints  imposed  by  the
physical environment can  be  ignored.   These
cases seem to be the exception rather than the
                                               13

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rule.    Examples  such as European starling,
house  sparrow,  and  cattle  egret  are human
commensals.  These  species have  continental
(and global) ranges because suitable habitat has
been expanded across entire continents.

(4)  Non-anthropogenic Stressors.  Climate is
the primary data set for which non-anthropogenic
stressors can  be developed (see Section 4.4).
Characteristic  climates  (e.g.,   the   Koeppen
classification)  are   regionally  distributed.
Trewartha (1961),  for example, divides North
America into six climatic regions, and describes
several subtypes within  these   regions.   The
severe winter of 1993/1994 in the eastern United
States highlights that extreme weather events are
also distributed  regionally.   Record  snowfalls
were recorded in several locations in the mid-
Atlantic  States,  for   example,  southeastern
Pennsylvania.   However, only as far  south as
Washington, DC, the cold was not as severe and
ice  storms  were the   prevailing   form   of
precipitation.

3.3 CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF
    STRESSOR DATA SETS

    There are several sources of stressor data
available.      Abramovitz  et al.  (1990)  have
published a guide to over 30 environmental data
sets that are available through  the federal
government.  It would  not be feasible in terms of
time or  expense  to  examine  each  of them.
Criteria must be established for selecting data
sets to develop stressor measurements.

    The first criterion  is to select at least one
data set from each of the stressor categories
identified   (habitat  fragmentation,   pollution,
introduced   and  exotic   species,  and  non-
anthropogenic).  Hall et al. (1992) noted that at
least one example could  be found to support a
particular  hypothesis   for  explaining  species
richness diversity, but  little work has been done
to  integrate  the  numerous  hypotheses  for
explaining species diversity.  To gain a more
complete  understanding  of the   relationship
between stressors and species diversity would
seem to require data sets representing stressors
from each category.  Also data sets within each
category should be selected such that as many
aspects of that stressor category as possible are
represented.  For example, land cover data can
be used to develop many stressor  metrics of
habitat fragmentation.  However, land cover data
is often deficient in its representation of roads
and wetlands.  Separate data sets of roads and
wetlands might be necessary to develop habitat
fragmentation measures that cannot be obtained
from land cover  data alone.  Second, the data
sets    selected   should    cover   the   entire
conterminous  United  States  or  at least  the
stressor's region of influence.   Third, available
reference information (not necessarily part of the
data set itself)  is  needed to assess the quality of
the data set.   Assessment of data quality is
important for the correlative analyses proposed
by BRC. Without knowing the quality of the data
used, it is impossible to determine whether or not
correlations (or lack thereof) are  an artifact of
poor data quality.

3.4 A CONSIDERATION  IN STUDYING
   CORRELATIONS BETWEEN
   STRESSORS AND SPECIES RICHNESS

   Once the  stressor  data  sets  have been
selected, the question arises as to how the data
sets  should be used to determine their effects on
species richness. The problem of scale is central
to this  issue.    Many  of  the  continental-scale
studies have  shown  strong  correlations with
aspects of climate and topography, but there has
been little empirical work at similar spatial scales
showing strong  correlations between  species
richness and stressors of habitat fragmentation,
pollution, or exotic species.  The effect of these
disturbances appears  to be most prominent on
local and regional scales (see Section 3.2).

   Scaling-up   is  recommended  here.    By
scaling-up, correlations between stressors  and
species richness, as well as among stressors,
can be studied progressively.  The spatial scale
can  be increased by continually adding more
hexagons.   A pattern of increasing  correlation
with    increasing  geographic  extent   (more
hexagons) followed by a drop in correlation may
indicate  the  scale  at  which that  stressor
influences  species richness  patterns.    This
approach is conceptually similar to that used by
Krummel et al. (1987).  The authors examined
the change in  fractal dimension as a function of
                                              14

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forest patch size.   To  start, the 200  smallest
forest patches  were selected and their fractal
dimension  calculated.    This  process  was
repeated, using progressively larger 200-patch
subsets.  Other examples using a conceptually
similar approach can be found in O'Neill et al.
(1991) and Turner et al. (1991).

    The same  approach could be examined in
the Pennsylvania and Oregon  Pilot Studies by
starting  with   a  small  subset of  hexagons,
examining the results of multivariate analyses,
adding  additional  hexagons  to increase the
spatial extent, followed by a re-examination of the
results of the multivariate analyses.  There are
several logical starting points in Pennsylvania and
Oregon.   In  Pennsylvania, examples are the
Great Valley,  Coastal Plain, and Piedmont, all of
which  would be  comprised  of only  a  small
number of hexagons.   In Oregon,  examples
include the Willamette Valley and the portion of
Malheur County south of the Owyhee River and
west of the Owyhee Mountains.
                                               15

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                     4.0 EXISTING DATA FOR IDENTIFYING STRESSORS
4.1 HABITAT FRAGMENTATION DATA

    Habitat fragmentation  alters the  physical
environment in  numerous ways (Wilcove et al.
1986, Wilcove  1987,  Saunders  et  al. 1991).
These include loss of habitat area, loss of habitat
heterogeneity,   isolation,  edge  creation   and
changes in edge-to-area ratio, and modification of
microclimate  in remaining  patches.    Many
biological  responses are incumbent  with these
changes, such as density dependent extinctions
(Wilcove et al.  1986, Pimm et al. 1988, Soul6 et
al.  1988,  Bolger et  al.  1991), dysfunctional
behavior (e.g., inability to avoid nest predation)
(Wilcove  1987),  and secondary   extinctions
(Wilcove et al.  1986).

    Loss of habitat heterogeneity may be one of
the most pervasive but least recognized aspects
of  fragmentation.    Habitat  heterogeneity is
typically considered a within-stand or community-
level phenomenon, such as snags and downed
logs in old-growth forests (e.g., Franklin 1993).
However,   habitat  fragmentation   may  also
eliminate juxtaposition of different habitat types
(e.g., removal of forest patches near riparian
habitat),  which  can  make  remnant habitats
unusable or less than optimal. Of the 67 bird,
mammal, and herptile  species studied by Finch
(1992),  59 used more than one habitat type.
Thomas et al.  (1976), in a  study  of 13  bird
species in the Blue Mountains of Oregon, found
that all 13 species required at least two habitat
types for reproduction and/or feeding. A complex
of habitat types has  also been demonstrated as
a  requisite  for beaver  (Castor canadensis)
(Genoways 1986) and the desert bighorn sheep
(Ovis canadensis) (Leslie and  Douglas 1979).

    Existing data that  can be  used  to measure
aspects of habitat  fragmentation are  listed in
Table 2.  The  data are in four groups:  land
cover,  roads,   population,  and  wetland  and
riparian habitats.

4.1.1   Land Cover

    Land cover data (Table 2) are  the primary
source  for  generating  metrics  of  habitat
fragmentation (e.g., shape, size, interspersion,
connectivity, and diversity).   The developing
discipline  of  landscape ecology  (Naveh  and
Lieberman 1984, Risser et al. 1984, Forman and
Godron 1986) provides both a conceptual basis
and a practical framework for such studies. Land
cover data are available from several sources, at
several scales, and in several formats.

    The  USGS  land  cover  regionalization
(Loveland et al.1991) is a nationwide data base
that has 159 classes mapped from the Advanced
Very  High Resolution  Radiometer  (AVHRR)
satellite at about  1  km2  resolution.   Use of
AVHRR-derived  land  cover  data to  generate
patch-based measures of habitat fragmentation
should be undertaken with caution. The AVHRR
land cover regionalization data provides a map of
the probability of a particular land cover type
occurrence (Brown  et  al.  1993).   It is  not  a
traditional land  cover  map  in  the  sense of
providing data  with specified geographic  and
thematic accuracy. Therefore, measures such as
patch size, distance between patches of the
same type,  and  patch shape  are,  too, only
probabilities.  Also,  Gervin et al. (1985) found
that thematic accuracy of AVHRR land cover data
was  poor  in   heterogeneous   areas  when
compared to those mapped from Landsat MSS.
    The USGS Land Use Data Analysis (LUDA)
and USFWS GAP land cover  have specified
thematic and geographic accuracy requirements.
These data are more appropriate for developing
metrics  of habitat fragmentation than  AVHRR.
USGS LUDA data were compiled from ca. 1975
high altitude aerial photography. The USFWS
GAP program (Scott et al. 1993) uses Landsat
TM to map land cover.  Several state agencies
are also mapping land cover  using  Landsat
satellite  data  (e.g.,  Florida, Georgia,  South
Carolina).  The Department of Defense  (DOD)
has published a Digital Chart of  the  World
(DCW),  which provides digital,  polygon-based
data  of  urban  areas  for  the  United  States
(Loveland, pers. comm.).  Urban categories are
typically included in land cover maps.
                                             16

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                 Table 2:  Data for Land Use and Habitat Fragmentation.
  Data


  Land Cover
   Roads
   Population

   Wetlands &
   Riparian
Name
Land Cover
Regionalization

LUDA
GAP

MLU

PSU

NRI

DCW

DLQ


CENDATA

NWI
Collection
Method

AVHRR
Aerial
Photography

Landsat TM

Survey

Landsat TM

Field Sample

Satellite

Aerial
Photography

Survey

Aerial
Photography
Source


USGS


USGS


USFWS

USDA

USDA

NRI

DOD

USGS


Census

USFWS
Trends


No


No


No

Yes

Yes

Yes

?

No


Yes

Yes
NCSS
(soils)
DLG
(streams)
Survey

Aerial
Photography
USDA

USGS

No

No

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
provides at least three sources of land cover data
through its various branches.  These are Major
Land Uses (MLU) from the Economic Research
Service (ERS),  National Agriculture Statistical
Service (NASS) Primary Sampling Units (PSU),
and the National Resources Inventory (NRI) of
the Soil Conservation Service (SCS).  Data from
these sources are updated every five years.

    MLU  provides 5-year trend analysis in 11
land use categories.  These data are tabular
statistics by state, compiled by correspondence
with other federal  inventory programs.   For
                             example, forest area is taken from USDA Forest
                             Service estimates. The estimates are adjusted to
                             a total of 100 percent.

                                NASS collects agricultural and  land cover
                             data using a stratified sampling design. Primary
                             Sampling Units (PSU) are the most basic strata.
                             These units vary in size from 40 to 640 acres,
                             and are classified according to the  intensity of
                             agricultural land use.   An example of a PSU
                             class is an  area with greater than  50 percent
                             agriculture.  These data are not  land cover  per
                             se. They are a land cover regionalization based
                             on intensity of agriculture.  Over the long term
                                            17

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(20 to 30 years or more), NASS PSU data may
have  potential  for  monitoring  the  trend  in
agriculture  toward   fewer  but  larger  farms
projected by NRC(1982).

    NRI data were first  collected in 1982, and
repeated in 1987 and 1992.  NRI  is primarily
intended to provide an inventory of status and
condition of soil and water resources, but also
provides information  on land  cover.  Data are
collected using PSUs that are  similar in concept
to NASS PSUs. These units are about 160 acres
in size.   Land cover data are collected using 3
sample points within each PSU.  Area estimates
of land cover are statistically reliable using USGS
8-digit watersheds (cataloguing units) and Major
Land  Resource Areas  (MLRA,  an "ecoregion"
map based on soils  and land use).  The 1982
and 1992 data also have  information on  land
cover surrounding each  point within 0.25 miles.
The point data are available as a CIS data set
with attribute  coding.   A polygon-based  land
cover data set for the watersheds codes each
unit by proportion of land cover classes.

    Land cover data mapped from satellites with
higher   resolution  than  AVHRR  or  aerial
photography should be used to generate habitat
fragmentation  metrics.  These data are typically
compiled with specified thematic and geographic
accuracy standards.  Use of NRI land cover data
should be explored as a substitute when satellite-
based land cover is not available.  NRI data are
compiled from a design that provides statistically
reliable   estimates  of   land  cover  for  small
watersheds, and can provide change and trend
information.  Their primary shortcoming is that
land cover is  represented as points instead  of
polygons,  but  habitat  measurements  (e.g.,
interspersion) should still be possible.  The other
land use  data generated by  USDA  is not
recommended because  measurement of habitat
fragmentation  would not be possible with them.

4.1.2    Digital Line Graphs (Roads)

    Roads  are discussed separately  from land
cover because land cover data do not typically
include roads  unless  they are  of sufficient width
(e.g.,  interstate highways).   Moreover, metrics
such as road density can capture aspects  of
fragmentation that cannot be measured from land
cover alone.  Several studies have shown that
roads  have  fragmented  habitats  for  larger
animals.    Elk  (Cervus elaphus)  habitat was
reduced by 75 percent  at a road  density of 2
km/km2 (Lyon 1979, 1983).  If the average road
width in this study was 20 meters, the  area
occupied by roads was only 4 percent of a 1 km2
unit.  Thiel (1985), studying  gray  wolf (Canis
lupus) in Wisconsin, found that populations failed
to survive  at road densities greater than 0.93
mi/mi2.  Storm et al. (1967) found  that-red fox
(Canis vulpes) avoided  roads.  These  findings
illustrate that for a  given species, habitats (e.g.,
forests) which seem suitable  in  terms  of size,
shape, and connectivity with other patches of the
same  type,  might actually  not  be   suitable
because of the existing  road network.  Metrics
such as patch size alone would not be able to
detect this problem.

    Road   data  are  available  from  various
sources,  including  USGS  Digital Line  Graphs
(DLG), Census  TIGER  files,  EtakMap Corp.,
Wessex First Street, and Delorme (Street Atlas)
Inc. USGS DLG data is probably the most widely
recognized source.  The  other  data sets  are
based  on  USGS DLGs.   For example,  Census
TIGER files are essentially USGS DLG road data
with address geocoding (e.g., zip  codes and
street addresses).  EtakMap Data are updates of
the USGS 1:100,000-scale USGS data.

    DLG scale options are: 1:24,000, 1:100,000
and 1:2,000,000. These data are attribute-coded,
giving  information  on  the types of roads (e.g.,
interstate   highways,   limited  access/divided
highways, other U.S. highways, state secondary
highways,  improved  roads,  and  unimproved
roads).  USGS DLG 1:24,000-scale data is not
available nationwide.  The 1:100,000-scale data
is the  largest scale data that is  available on a
nationwide basis.  USGS 1:100,000-scale DLGs
are  created   by  photomosaicking and  then
photoreducing   the  1:24,000-scale   USGS
topographic maps.  The photoreductions are then
scribed and these are  scanned to create the
digital 1:100,000-scale data (pers. comm., USGS,
Reston, VA).

    USGS DLG is the  most accessible  (via
INTERNET) road  data available, and all other
available  road data are compiled  from DLGs.
                                              18

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Thus, there is no independent data source for
comparison.  The amount of error in the USGS
DLG data is unknown.  Three analyses can be
performed  to assess the quality of DLQ road
data.   First, the spatial pattern in road density
can be examined by map sheet. This has been
done for Pennsylvania using the 1:100,000-scale
DLG data.  The highest densities  are in the
southeastern portion of the state, followed by the
southwestern portion.  The lowest densities are
in the central portion of the state, starting north of
Harrisburg and spreading east and west in a "T"
along the border with New York. The rank order
pattern  follows the population  distribution in the
state.  Second, graphs and correlations scores
between road and population density  can be
examined.  Since these data should be positively
correlated, a  finding  to the  contrary would
suggest error in the road data.  Third, DLGs can
be compared to digital orthophoto quads.

4.1.3   Wetland  and Riparian Habitat  Loss

    There is increasing recognition that wetland
and riparian habitats support greater numbers of
species than surrounding uplands  (Odum 1979a,
1979b;  Thomas  et al. 1979;  Kauffman  and
Kreuger 1984; Gregory et al. 1990;  Williams
1991; Finch 1992; Mitsch and Gosselink 1993;
Naiman et al.  1993).  Eighty (80)  percent of the
United States' breeding bird populations rely on
wetlands (Wharton et  al. 1982).   Wetland and
riparian habitats also support a disproportionately
greater  number   of   the   endangered  and
threatened species in the United  States (Mitsch
and Gosselink 1993).     In a  survey by Finch
(1992),  loss of wetland and  riparian habitat was
the most often cited cause of species  decline.
Loss of wetland and riparian  habitat is likely to be
an important measure for explaining geographic
patterns of species diversity.

    The ability of wetland and  riparian habitat to
support high numbers of species may be in part
due to their greater productivity.   In comparing
net primary productivity (NPP)  for temperate
wetlands  from Richardson (1979)  with  NPP
estimates  of  temperate uplands from  Lerth
(1975),  Williams  (1991) found that temperate
wetlands were 2 to 5 times more productive than
surrounding upland communities.
    There are two  reasons why wetland and
riparian habitat loss should not be developed
from land cover data alone.  First, satellite data
(even Landsat TM) are not generally capable of
detecting wetlands accurately (see Dottavio and
Dottavio  1984). A multistage approach (use of
several remote platforms simultaneously - air
photos, airborne and satellite spectral  data) for
accurate detection of wetlands is advocated by
Jensen et al. (1986,1991). Second, much of the
wetland loss that  has occurred  in the  lower 48
states  predates the advent  of  satellite remote
sensing (Williams 1991).  Temporal land cover
mapping could not be used to determine wetland
loss between the time periods represented by the
land cover data.

    To determine where wetlands have been lost
requires three data  sets: land  cover,  streams,
and soils. Soils data are critical.  Soils  data can
be used to determine where wetlands would be
supported independent of the present land cover
and, since  soils change slowly  relative to land
cover,  wetland loss estimates can be generated
that reflect  a longer  history  than would be
possible  by comparison of temporal land cover
data.

    Soil Conservation Service (SCS) has mapped
soils nationwide using the soil series taxonomic
unit (USDA 1987). The soils series is "the basic
unit of soil classification,... consisting of soils that
are  essentially   alike  in   all   major  profile
characteristics except texture of the A horizon"
(Steila 1976).  There is an extensive list  of
attribute  information that accompanies  the data,
such as  length of flooding.   By combining land
cover and stream data with soil attributes such as
length  of flooding, wetland  and riparian habitat
loss could be measured as the sum (by hexagon)
of  anthropogenic land  use  (e.g., agriculture,
urban) on wetland soils.

    Data for streams is available as part of the
USGS  DLG  series.    DLG   characteristics
previously  described  for roads also  apply to
streams  (except for classification).  Land cover
data would be taken from  sources previously
described.  The stream data would be utilized to
distinguish riparian wetlands from those that are
not.
                                               19

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4.1.4   Census Data

    Population growth is the driving force behind
the threats to biodiversity. The Bureau of Census
provides  several  data sets covering various
aspects of population  through  its CENDATA
system.  The County Statistics File 3 contains
time-series data for over 1600 items. Population
change (1980-1990)  for selected  high  growth
counties in Pennsylvania and Oregon are shown
in Table 3.

    Population growth in both Pennsylvania and
Oregon  follow  urbanization  patterns.    In
Pennsylvania dramatic growth has occurred in
the counties that form its eastern and southern
borders with New Jersey and Maryland.  These
include Pike  (FIPS  42103) Monroe (42089),
Wayne (42127), Adams  (42001), York (42133),
Lancaster  (42071),   and   Chester   (42029)
Counties.    The  improvement  of  US15  in
Pennsylvania is at least partly responsible for
increased population growth in Adams County,
making Gettysburg, PA a distant but feasible
commute  into  northern Washington, DC and
other  Interstate 270  markets.   Several new
residential developments are evident  along the
Interstate  270/US15  corridor.    High  growth
counties in  Oregon  are Washington (41067),
Clackamas (41005), Marion (41047), Jackson
                               (41029),   Deschutes  (41017),  and  Yamhill
                               (41071).  These counties are all in the vicinity of
                               Portland and the Interstate 5 corridor, except for
                               Deschutes which includes the city of Bend.

                                   Use of population data is not recommended
                               because  it is  an indirect influence.  It  is not
                               population per se, but the  resultant  human
                               activities  that  act as stressors to  biodiversity.
                               The danger of using indirect measures such as
                               population in  correlative studies was  illustrated
                               well by Cole et al. (1993). The authors showed
                               a  R2  of 0.76  between population  density  and
                               nitrogen concentration in rivers.  However, this
                               relationship does not indicate the processes by
                               which human population causes the increase in
                               nitrate concentration.    Further  investigation
                               showed  that  sewage  discharge,  automobile
                               emissions, agriculture, and forest cutting were the
                               true culprits. Use of population density will likely
                               show strong (negative) correlations with species
                               diversity, but finding such a relationship will not
                               provide insight  into the activities  reducing
                               species diversity.   Knowledge  of the  actual
                               mechanisms that cause a reduction in species
                               diversity   is  needed  to develop management
                               options from analysis of geographic patterns of
                               stressors  and species diversity  (i.e., linking BRC
                               objectives 1 and 4; Section  1.0).
 Table 3:  Population change (1980-1990) for selected high growth counties in Pennsylvania and
 Oregon (from ArcUSAm ESR11992).  FIPS is the county identification code.
   Pennsylvania

   FIPS

   42001
   42029
   42071
   42089
   42103
   42127
   42133

   Oregon
      Population  By County
 1980          1986
 68292
316660
362346
 69409
 18271
 35237
312963
 71200
339100
393500
 82700
 22300
 38700
326600
 1990

 78274
376396
422822
 95709
 27966
 39944
339574
                                 Population Change
                              80 to 86      86  to  90
 4.2
 7.1
 8.6
19.1
22.2
 9.9
 4.3
 9.9
11.0
 7.5
15.7
25.4
 3.2
 4.0
41005
41017
41029
41047
41067
41071
241911
62142
132456
204692
245860
55332
256900
68700
140000
215400
271400
57500
278850
74958
146389
228483
311554
65551
6.2
10.5
5.7
5.2
10.4
3.9
8.5
9.1
4.6
6.1
14.8
14.0
                                             20

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4.2 POLLUTION DATA

    Widespread awareness  of  the potential
impact of pollution on species arose after World
War  II,  following  the  dramatic  increase  in
pesticide use (Moriarty 1983, Peterle 1993).  The
field of ecotoxicology  began to emerge  in the
1970s as a discipline focused on the study of the
ecological effects of pollutants  (Truhaut  1977).
Pesticides  use  is  probably the  most serious
pollution problem relative to wildlife populations.
Land in farms comprises about 50 percent of the
conterminous United States (USDA 1989, ESRI
1992),  and  pesticides  are  used  throughout.
There  are  approximately  50,000  different
chemical compounds that are used as pesticides
(Waddell et al. 1988) out of approximately 63,000
chemical compounds that are commonly used by
industry worldwide (Moriarty 1983).

    Another pollution problem that has impacted
species  diversity is acidification of lakes  and
streams in  the northeastern   United  States.
Schindler  et al.  (1989)  have  modeled  the
potential loss of taxonomic  groups of fish, based
on their documented sensitivity to pH values less
than  5.0.  Fish kills have  been reported at pH
values of 5.0, apparently because of increased
aluminum toxicrty (Moriarty  1983).

    Outside of these two examples much of what
is known about the impact of pollution on wildlife
is from  case studies.  Newman et al.  (1992)
discussed  several  case studies of  impacts  of
pollutants on wildlife  populations.   In another
recent case study, high concentrations of mercury
have been found in the endangered populations
of Florida panther (George Taylor, pers. comm.).

    Table 4  is  a list of available pollution data
sets.   The  data  from the  USFWS  National
Contaminant Biomonitoring  Program (NCBP) and
the USGS National Stream Quality  Accounting
Network (NASQAN) appear to  be the two data
sets that are most  likely to show a relationship
with species diversity patterns at large  spatial
scales. The  others listed in Table 4 provide only
ambient concentrations in  the environment.
Actual  concentrations  in  species  are  more
valuable than concentrations in the environment
because of species differential  response to the
presence of pollutants (Loucks,  pers. comm.).
    The USFWS NCBP program provides data
on tissue concentrations of agricultural pesticides
in fish, waterfowl and starlings.  There are over
100  fish   and   starling   collection   sites;
concentrations in  waterfowl are collected from
hunters. The program was initiated in 1964 with
the  objective of  providing  geographic  and
temporal trends. NCBP data will be stored in the
Environmental Contaminant Data  Management
System (ECDMS).  Fish data are already in the
EPA STORET system.

    Although  NASQAN   does   not   provide
information on presence of toxics  (e.g., Al"*) in
aquatic biota, the well documented susceptibility
of  fish  species  to pH values less than 5.0
(Dickson 1986, Schindler et al.  1989) suggests
that use of pH data for lakes and streams should
be  a useful stressor metric for correlation with
aquatic diversity.   Because of the relationship
between acid  deposition and  the  buffering
capacity of soils (Moriarty 1983),  it is probably
better to restrict such correlation studies to areas
with inherently low Acid Neutralizing  Capacity
(ANC), such as the northeast United States. It is
not likely that the other data listed in Table 4 will
provide useful information for correlation with
geographic patterns of species diversity.  Each
provides only information on release of pollutants
into or concentration in the environment.

4.3 EXOTIC SPECIES DATA

    The data available for introduced and exotic
species are listed in Table 5. The primary source
of data is TNC's Heritage Data Base, which is
being used to develop the species richness data
for each hexagon (see Figure 1). The vertebrate
species data set  being developed for each
hexagon will classify each species according to
its probability of occurrence (1: >95%; 2:80-95%;
3: 10-80%; 4: <10%) and its origin (1: native; 2:
introduced; 3: reintroduced; 4: unknown).  The
quality  of  these  data, relative to whether  a
species is native or introduced, is probably high,
given  that  distinction  between  native and
introduced  is easier in countries that have been
explored and settled by  Europeans only in the
last three hundred or so years (Usher  1988).
These data are being developed by the Species
Team. Development of specific metrics will likely
                                               21

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               Table 4:  Pollution Data Sets (from Abramovitz et al. 1990).
Agency

DOI, USFWS



EPA
Commerce,
Census

DOI, USGS
DOI, USGS
Commerce,
NOAA
DOE



EPA



EPA



EPA


DOE, ORNL
Data

NCBP



NPS
Census
of Ag.

NASQAN
Trends

Yes
NCDPI
MSCET



AIRS



CERCLIS



TRI


CDIAC
Yes


Yes
NADP/NTN    Yes
No
Yes



Yes



Yes



Yes


Yes
Description

National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program
(NCBP). Tissue examination of fish,
waterfowl, and starlings.

National Pesticide Survey (NPS).  Data on
126 pesticides in water supply wells.

Census of Agriculture.  Data on chemical
applications by county.

National Stream Quality Accounting Network
(NASQAN). Data on H2O quality and quantity.
Monitoring was established in 1972.

National Atmospheric Deposition
Program/National Trends Network
(NADP/NTN).  Data on precipitation chemistry
for -200 sites nationwide.

National Coastal Pollutant Discharge Inventory
(NCDPI). Inventory of 9 categories of
pollutants for coastal areas.

Month & State Current  Emission Trends
(MSCET).  NOX, SOX, and VOC emissions by
state.

Aerometric Information  Retrieval System
(AIRS).  Data on air quality and pollution
collected from state and local agencies.

Comprehensive  Environmental Response,
Compensation and Liability Information
System (CERCLIS).  Data on the location of
-30,000 hazardous waste sites.

Toxic Release Inventory (TRI). Toxic release
inventory of over 17,000 manufacturing sites.

Carbon Dioxide  Information Analysis Center
(CDIAC). Data on CO2 parameters.
                                         22

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  Table 5: Data Sets for Exotic Species, Including Managed Livestock and Grazing Practices.
  Agency

  The Nature
  Conservancy
  USFS, FS
Data

Species
occurrence
FSRAMIS
Trends
Yes
  DOI, BLM
PLS & ESI
  DOC, Census
Census of
Agriculture
Yes
Description

Species occurrence by hexagon.
Species include mammals, reptiles,
amphibians, and fish.

Forest Service Range Management
Information Service (FSRAMIS).  Data
on grazing use in national forests and
grasslands.

Public Land Statistics (PLS) and
Range (Ecological) Site Inventory
(ESI).  Provides data on grazing use
and ecological condition,  respectively.

Data on livestock numbers by county.
be a  collaborative effort among the Species,
Analysis, and Stressors Team.

   Data for grazing is presented here under the
category of exotic species, instead of creating a
separate category. This is because herbivory by
large ungulates in the intermountain west was not
an  ecosystem   component   prior  to  their
introduction by man (Mack and Thompson 1982).
Livestock grazing is the most extensive land use
in the interior Pacific Northwest (Kauffman and
Kreuger  1984).    Demand  for  rangeland  is
projected to increase 38 percent by 2030 in the
Pacific Northwest (NRC 1982).  Data on grazing
use seems necessary to help explain species
diversity  patterns because of  the  extent  and
projected increases in grazing use throughout the
western United States (NRC 1982), and  also
because of the potential  for domestic livestock
grazing to  alter  competitive relationships  with
other  organisms, transmit disease,  accelerate
erosion, change  plant community composition,
and alter riparian habitat  (Cooperrider 1990,
Kauffman and Kreuger 1984).
                                  Grazing data is available from three federal
                              sources:  BLM, the U.S. Forest Service, and the
                              Department of Census (Census of Agriculture).
                              BLM's  Public  Land Statistics (PLS)  provides
                              grazing use  data, and the Ecological (Range)
                              Site Index data have been used to determine
                              past grazing use.  These  data are not stored
                              digitally, but instead are kept as paper records in
                              each BLM state office.  Moreover,  these data
                              are in Animal Unit Months  (AUM), which  is the
                              amount of forage necessary to sustain one cow
                              and calf for  one month.  Since,  the amount of
                              forage  concept of an AUM  is  based on the
                              vegetation present, an AUM is unitless in terms
                              of area.  It might take only forty acres to make up
                              one AUM  in one allotment  versus 60 acres per
                              AUM in another.   The use of AUM  makes  it
                              difficult to determine grazing  use  in terms  of
                              number of livestock per unit area.  BLM's ESI
                              data classifies allotments into low, mid-, and high
                              serai, and potential natural community  (PNC),
                              based on  vegetation composition.  Some have
                              suggested that each stage  reflects past grazing
                              use (L. Walker, pers. comm.).  For example, low
                              serai would reflect past heavy grazing pressure.
                              However, there is not complete agreement on the
                                             23

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relationship between grazing use and BLM serai
stages.  The Forest Service Range Management
Information Service (FSRAMIS) stores  grazing
use  in  a computerized  format.   Information
collected includes  size, state, and county of
allotment,  and  grazing   use.     Geographic
coordinates are optional.  The data base is not
proprietary.   Also, the Census of Agriculture,
conducted every five years by the  Department of
Commerce,  provides  livestock  inventories  by
county.

    The FSRAMIS data base appears to have
the   most   appropriate   data  (allotment
characteristics  and actual  grazing use  in  a
computerized  format   with   geographic
coordinates), but the data only  cover  Forest
Service lands. It is disappointing that BLM does
not appear to have this type of data available to
the public. At present, the Census of Agriculture
data on livestock inventory by county seems to
be the only nationwide data.

    A per hexagon livestock density data set with
known data quality can be developed  through
boolean   modeling  using  the   Census  of
Agriculture  livestock  estimates   followed  by
comparison to livestock data from FSRAMIS (for
counties of co-occurrence). Livestock distribution
is not spatially uniform (Senft et al. 1985, Smith
1988).  Studies have shown that cattle  avoid
steep slopes and exposed aspects (Roath and
Kreuger 1982) and tend to congregate near water
(Roath  and Kreuger 1982, Senft et al.  1983,
1985). These factors combined with land cover
data (e.g., presence of urban development) and
land ownership permit  bollean modeling of the
presence of cattle in individual hexagons.

    The boolean model would be county based.
The  model  would query  each  hexagon to
establish the proportions  of the hexagons with
steep slopes, exposed aspects,  cropland and
urban  land  use,  and  land  ownership  that
excluded  grazing  (e.g., National Park).   The
result of these queries would eliminate  some
portion of the area of some or all hexagons in the
county from grazing use.  For example,  assume
that livestock density for a  county is  100,000
animals, and a hexagon comprises 5 percent of
the  area of  that county.   If  the  modeling
eliminated  50  percent of  the   area  of  that
hexagon, then  2.5 percent of 100,000  (2.500
animals) would be the density of livestock in that
hexagon.  For hexagons straddling one or more
county boundaries, the starting proportion for the
hexagon would  be the area in the county being
modeled.   FSRAMIS data could be  used  to
validate and refine the model, because it contains
information  on  size,  state,   and  county  of
allotment,   grazing   use,   and  geographical
coordinates for Forest Service lands.

4.4 DATA SETS FOR NON-
    ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS

    Data on climate are the primary source  to
develop stressor metrics of non-anthropogenic
stress  -   a disturbance  which is  part  of the
system but occurs at an excessive level at a
particular point in time (Barrett 1981). There are
also data on fire and pest outbreaks. The data
sets are listed in Table 6.

4.4.1   Historical Climatology Network
       (HCN)

    Climatic data have been widely used to study
geographic patterns  in species richness (e.g.,
Wright 1983; Owen 1990a, 1990b; Currie 1991).
Climate is noted to have a particular influence on
the distribution of bird  species  (Temple  and
Wiens 1989).    The  National  Oceanic  and
Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Historical
Climatology  Network  (HCN)  contains  1219
stations of serially complete monthly temperature
(mean,  minimum, and  maximum)  and  total
precipitation throughout the United States.  The
data represent  the best available out of more
than 5000 cooperative  weather stations,  and
"probably   represents   the   best  monthly
temperature and precipitation data set available
for the contiguous United States"   (Karl et  al.
1990).

    There are about 22 stations in Oregon; 19 of
these stations are along Interstates 5 and 84
corridors.   There are three stations east and
south of Bend. One is near Oregon's border with
California  and  Nevada,   another   in  the
northeastern  corner of Malheur County, and a
third near  Bend.  There are  approximately  12
stations in Pennsylvania.  These stations are
                                              24

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more evenly distributed.  Neilson et al.  (1992)
noted that stations tend to be at low elevations.

    Notwithstanding  the  apparent  elevational
bias,  the  data completeness  (both  within and
across years) and quality control to remove urban
effects and station changes (see Quinlan et al.
1987) indicate that HCN data would be able to
provide relatively  error free measurements  of
both seasonal, annual, and longer term (e.g, five
years)  departures from   average  conditions.
Averages can be calculated from 65 or more
years of data.

4.4.2   USGS Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

    Topography has been a primary source of
data   to  test  the   hypotheses   of   spatial
heterogeneity,  elevation,  and  even  aridity as
mechanisms influencing spatial  patterns (e.g.,
Whittaker and Niering  1965, Glenn-Lewin 1977,
Owen 1990a, 1990b).  Although topography  is
not a stressor as we have defined the term here,
such data are essential in establishing a baseline
(see Section 2.0). Therefore, we have included
topography in the category of non-anthropogenic
data sets.

4.4.3   Federal Insect and Disease
        Conditions  (FIDC) and Wildland Fire
        Statistics (WFS)

    Fire  and  pest  infestations are   natural
components of many ecosystems that in  part
                              determine the dynamics of species occurrence
                              (see  Loucks 1970,  Hengeveld  1989, Romme
                              annight 1982).   Like topographic data, fire and
                              pest outbreaks could be useful in distinguishing
                              between   natural   fluctuations   in   species
                              occurrence and the impact of stressors.   Also,
                              these data could be useful as stressors,  to the
                              extent that fire  and pest outbreaks can  be
                              determined to  be man-precipitated (see  Blais
                              1985, regarding pest outbreaks).  Use of these
                              data as  stressors, though, would assume that
                              man's hand in causing a fire  or pest infestation
                              was out  of phase with the normal cycle for that
                              ecosystem, which may be difficult to establish.

                                  The  Forest Service publishes annual reports
                              on forest pest conditions (FIDC) and wildland
                              fires on  federal and non-federal lands (WFS).
                              FIDC data are  compiled from  Forest Service
                              regional  and  district offices.   The information in
                              the annual reports is typically  in the form of
                              summary statistics.  Detailed information  would
                              need to be  acquired from  regional  and local
                              offices. The Fire and Aviation Management Staff
                              of the Forest Service collects annual statistics on
                              wildland fires on federal and non-federal land.
                              Statistics include total area burned, source of fire
                              (on Forest Service land only), and year-to-date
                              and annual statistics.

                              No digital, geographically referenced data exists
                              for either FIDC or WFS.  Also, to our knowledge,
                              these data have only been used for  reporting.
                              There is no information on the quality of the data.
        Table 6:  Data Sets for Non-Anthropogenic Factors (from Abramovitz et ai. 1990).
   Agency

   NOAA
Data

HCN
Trends

Yes
Description

Historical Climatology Network (HCN). U.S.
temperature and precipitation for =1200 stations.
DOI, USQS
USD/i,, FS
USDA, FS
DEM
FIDC
WFS
No
Yes
Yes
Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Elevation, slope,
and aspect at 1 :24K, 1 :250K, and 1 :2M scales.
Forest Insect & Disease Conditions (FIDC) across
all forest and ownership classes.
Wildland Fire Statistics (WFS). Wildland files on
public and private land. Origin on public land only.
                                               25

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                                      5.0 DISCUSSION
5.1 IMPORTANCE OF SCALE

    The relationship between geographic patterns
of species richness and environmental factors are
scale-dependent  (see  Section  2.0).     At
continental  and global scales, available energy,
as  measured  from  climatic data,  and species
richness are  strongly  correlated  (see  Currie
1991).  Early studies, such as Simpson (1964)
and Kiester (1971), showed that species richness
patterns  were correlated  with   latitude  and
longitude. Available energy has also been shown
to  be  the  best   predictor  of decomposition
(Meentemeyer  1984)  and   productivity
(Rosenzwieg  1968,  Leith  and Box  1972) at
continental and global scales. Little evidence can
be  found  to  support  hypotheses  of   time,
origination-extinction  dynamics,   habitat
heterogeneity, disturbance, and niche theory to
explain species richness patterns at continental
and global scales  (Rhode 1992).

    At regional and smaller spatial scales, the
influence of climate on species richness is less
universal. While Owen (1990a), studying species
richness patterns  in  Texas,  found  a  strong
correlation between aspects of temperature and
precipitation, variance  in  elevation was  also
signifcant.   Glenn-Lewin (1977) and  Whittaker
and Niering  (1965)  also found a relationship
between species richness and elevation.  Pianka
(1967) found that the variety of vegetation life
forms was  the best predictor of the number of
herptile  species  along  a  gradient  from the
Sonoran through Great Basin Deserts.

    Based on the review of the literature  on the
factors influencing patterns of species richness,
there seems to be a lack of integration of natural
and anthropogenic factors.  None of the studies
discussed in Section 2.0 included anthropogenic
factors.  We have proposed that anthropogenic
and  non-anthropogenic   stressors  operate
primarily at  local and  regional  scales,  and,
therefore, stronger correlations between species
richness and  stressors  should be more likely
found on these scales.
5.2 PROPOSED DATA SETS AND
    CONSIDERATIONS IN EXAMINING
    STRESSOR-SPECIES RELATIONSHIPS

    The data sets proposed for study are listed in
Table 7. For habitat fragmentation, these include
road density and wetland/riparian habitat loss.
Road density would be measured directly using
existing digital data. Wetland and riparian habitat
loss would be measured by  combining land
cover, streams, and soils  data in a GIS.  Other
measures of habitat fragmentation, such as patch
size and isolation are being developed by the
Landscape  Team,   and  therefore  are  not
discussed here. For pollution, use of the USFWS
NCBP data and USGS NASQAN water quality
data (pH and Acid Nuetralizing Capacity (ANC))
are proposed. The USFWS NCBP provides data
on pesticide pollutant loading for fish, waterfowl
and starling. Samples are collected  across the
conterminous United States.   Decreased pH
(below 5.0) in lakes has been shown to result in
a decrease  in  aquatic biota  (Schindler  et.  al.
1989).  USGS, NASQAN data can be used to
derive pH and  ANC measures.  Data on exotic
species are part of the TNC Heritage data, which
is being used to create the hexagon species  list
for BRC. Livestock density by hexagon, included
under the  category of  exotic species  because
herbivory by large, congregating ungulates was
not   an   ecosystem   component   in  the
intermountain west prior to European introduction
(Mack and Thompson  1982), can be  modeled
using Census  of Agriculture  livestock density
estimates,  topography, land  cover, and land
ownership data.  For non-anthropogenic factors,
climate and topography data are proposed. The
NOAA,  HCN data  can be  used to  measure
departures  from  long-term  normals  (both
temperature and precipitation).   Topographic
data, though not a stressor, should be included
because of its importance in establishing baseline
conditions.

    In examining the relationships between these
stressors and species diversity, consideration of
scale-dependence and data quality are important.
Because the majority of evidence shows  that
stressors influence species diversity at local and
regional scales, and that climate appears to have
                                              26

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          Table 7: Data Proposed for Examination of Stressors-Species Relationships
  Stressor Category

  Fragmentation


  Pollution



  Exotic Species


  Non-Anthropogenic Factors
Data

Wetland loss:  Land cover, streams, soils
Road density

Loading:  National Contaminant Biomonitoring
     Program data
Water quality (pH, ANC) in streams and lakes

Heritage (species occurrence) Data
Livestock grazing

Climate (departures from normals)
Topography
an overriding influence at the continental scale,
we  have suggested a hierarchical approach to
the study of the relationship between stressors
and species richness.  Also, an assessment of
quality of the stressor data must be made prior to
analyzing species  stressor relationships.  Poor
data quality  can lead to failure to identify a
relationship when one exists or identification of a
relationship when none exists.  A description of
data quality  analysis  procedures  have  been
presented for many but not all  of the data sets
proposed. This is because data quality
evaluation for some of the data sets proposed is
problematic.     For  example,  there  is   no
independent information  that can  be used to
assess  the quality  of the USGS stream data.
One  possible  approach  to evaluation  of  the
quality of such data is to compare the sum of
squares (or logical counterpart) using the entire
data set with a  subset with which one is most
confident.  If the two sums  of squares are not
very different it  would be fair to conclude  that
either data quality is good overall or the error in
the data is not affecting the statistical results.
                                               27

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                              6.0  LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
Federal Agencies

DOC         Department of Commerce
             Census
             NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
DOD         Department of Defense
DOE         Department of Energy
DOI          Department of Interior
             BLM    - Bureau of Land Management
             USQS  - United States Geological Survey
             USFWS - United States Fish & Wildlife Service
EPA         Environmental Protection Agency
NOAA        National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
USDA        United States Department of Agriculture
             ERS   - Economic Research Service
             SCS   - Soil Conservation Service
             NASS - National Agricultural Statistics Service
             FS    - Forest Service (USFS)

Data

AVHRR      Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
             (Remotely sensed data acquired from NOAA satellites) (USGS)
LUDA        Land Use  Data Analysis (USGS)
DLG         Digital Line Graph (USGS)
NADP/NTN   National Acid Deposition Program/National Trends Network (USGS)
NASQAN     National Stream Quality Accounting Network (USGS)
DEM         Digital Elevation Model (USGS)
MLU         Major Land Uses (USDA, ERS)
NRI          National Resources Inventory (USDA, SCS)
NCSS        National Cartographic Soil Survey (USDA, SCS)
PSU         Primary Sampling Unit (USDA, NASS)
FSRAMIS    Forest Service Range Management Information Service (USFS)
FIDC        Forest Insect and Disease Conditions (USFS)
WFS        Wildland Fire Statistics (USFS)
NWI         National Wetlands Inventory (USFWS)
NCBP        National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program (USFWS)
DCW        Digital Chart of the World (DOD)
CENDATA    Census data (Census)
Census/Ag.   Census of Agriculture (Census)
HCN        Historical Climatology Network (NOAA)
NCDPI National Coastal Pollutant Discharge Inventory (NOAA)
PLS & ESI    Public Land Statistics & Ecological Site Inventory (BLM)
CDIAC Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (POE)
MSCET      Month and State Current Emission Trends (DOE)
NPS         National Pesticide Survey (NPS)
AIRS        Aerometric Information Retrieval System (EPA)
CERCLIS    Comprehensive Environmental Response,  Compensation and Liability
              Information System (EPA)
TRI          Toxic Release Inventory (TRI)

                                           28

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