AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT
FOR
NIA REGIONS
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTRASTATE AQCR
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
AUGUST 1973
TRWk
TRANSPORTATION I
'ENVIRONUCNTAL
'ore RATIONS
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AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT
FOR CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS:
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTRASTATE AQCR
AUGUST 1973
Prepared by
TRANSPORTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL OPERATIONS OF TRW, INC.
One Space Park
Redondo Beach, California
Contract No. 68-02-0048
For the
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF LAND USE PLANNING
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
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This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection
Agency by TRW Transportation and Environmental Operations in
fulfillment of Contract Number 68-02-0048. The contents of this
report are reproduced herein as received from the contractor.
The opinions, findings, and conclusions are those of TRW and not
necessarily those of the Environmental Protection Agency. Mention
of company or product names does not constitute endorsement by the
Environmental Protection Agency.
The results and conclusions developed herein are based, in
part, on the limited nature of the methodology used in forecast-
ing air quality. Due to the short time schedule and limited
budget assigned for carrying out this project, some of the
political, institutional, legal and socio-economic implications
of the proposed transportation control strategy have not been
fully assessed.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1.0 SUMMARY 1
1.1 Findings and Recommendations .... 1
1.2 Strategy Implementation 10
1.3 Limitations of the Analysis 12
2.0 BACKGROUND OF STUDY 18
2.1 Study Objective ........ 18
2.2 Regional Description 19
2.3 Problem Definition 22
3.0 CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT 26
3.1 Technical Approach 26
3.2 Alternative Control Measures 31
3.2.1 Stationary Source Controls 31
3.2.2 Aircraft Controls 34
3.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls 39
3.3 Review of CARB Strategy 54
3.3.1 Baseline Emissions Inventory 54
3.3.2 CARB Strategy 60
4.0 STRATEGY FOR SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY 67
4.1 Baseline Data 67
4.1.1 Air Quality 67
4.1.2 Emission Inventory 72
4.1.3 Transportation 96
4.2 Control Measure Assessment 100
4.2.1 Stationary Source Controls 109
4.2.2 Aircraft Controls 109
4.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls 109
4.3 Proposed Control Strategy 117
5.0 STRATEGY FOR FRESNO COUNTY 131
5.1 Baseline Data 131
5.1.1 Air Quality 131
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
Page
5.1.2 Emission Inventory ................. 136
5.1.3 Transportation ............... .... 160
5.2 Control Measure Assessment ............. .... 164
5.2.1 Stationary Source Controls ............. 164
5.2.2 Aircraft Controls .................. 164
5.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls ............... 164
5.3 Proposed Control Strategy ................. 173
6.0 STRATEGY FOR KERN COUNTY .................... 187
6.1 Baseline Data .......................
6.1.1 Air Quality .................... 187
6.1.2 Baseline Emission Inventory ............. 192
6.1.3 Transportation .................. 216
6.2 Control Measure Assessment ................. 220
6.2.1 Stationary Source Controls ............. 220
6.2.2 Aircraft Controls .................. 220
6.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls ........... . . . . 220
6.3 Proposed Control Strategy ................. 229
7.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF STRATEGY ............... 243
7.1 Costs of Strategy ..................... 243
7.1.1 Stationary Source Controls ............. 243
7.1.2 Mobile Source Controls ............... 245
7.2 Social Impact of Strategy ................. 250
7.2.1 Stationary Source Measures and Vehicle- . . ..... 251
Oriented Mobile Source Measures
i
7.2.2 Transportation System Measures ........... 252
7.3 Results of Attitude Survey ................. 262
7.3.1 Auto Air Pollution ................. 262
7.3.2 Transportation Usage ................ 264
8.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION ..................... 265
8.1 Procedure and Time Schedule ................ 265
8.2 Agency Involvement ................... . 270
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
9.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION 273
9.1 Phase I Measures 273
9.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 273
9.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures 274
9.2 Phase II Measures 276
9.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 276
9.2.2 Mobile Source Control Measures 276
REFERENCES 278
APPENDICES
A MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS A-l
B TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM DATA B-l
C AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS C-l
D PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY D-l
E RECENT CALIFORNIA AIR POLLUTION LEGISLATION E-l
F PROJECTIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION . . F-l
G ORGANIZATIONS CONSULTED G-.l
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
1-1 Summary of Proposed Implementation Schedule 11
1-2 Cold Start CO Emissions 14
2-1 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Summary and Rollback
Requirements 17
2-2 Allowable Emissions by County 25
3-1 Engine Modifications for Emission Control for Existing
and Future Engines 35
3-2 Time and Costs for Modification to Current Civil Aviation
Engines 36
3-3 Costs and Time for Operations Changes at a Large
International Airport 37
3-4 Motor Vehicle Control Measures Considered in Study. ...... 40
3-5 Emission Reductions Due to Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance . . 43
3-6 Retrofit Control Measures 45
3-7 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin Estimated Average Emissions of
Contaminants Into the Atmosphere, 1970 56
3-8 Percentage Growth in Population and Motor Vehicles for
Three California Counties (1960-1980) 58
3-9 Effects of Control Strategy San Joaquin Valley Air Basin ... 61
4-1 San Joaquin County Emission Inventory, 1971, 1975, 1977
and 1980 73
4-2 Relative Emissions by Major Source Categories in San Joaquin
County in 1971 75
4-3 Reactivity Assumptions for Stationary Sources^ 77
4-4 Growth Assumptions for Stationary Source Emissions 78
4-5 Baseline Stationary Source Controls of HC, RHC, CO, and NO
for San Joaquin County 79
4-6 Aircraft Emissions in San Joaquin County by Operations Type . . 82
4-7 Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions From Aircraft in San Joaquin
County 82
vi
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
4-8 Baseline Motor Vehicle Reactive Hydrocarbons (RHC)
Emissions - San Joaquin County 85
4-9 Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions - San Joaquin County .... 91
4-10 Daily VMT in San Joaquin County 98
4-11 Average Speeds in San Joaquin County (1971) 98
4-12 Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 121
4-13 Carbon Monoxide Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 122
4-14 Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 123
4-15 Proposed Control Strategy - San Joaquin County 124
5-1 Fresno County Baseline Emission Inventory, 1970, 1975, 1977,
and 1980 137
5-2 Relative Emissions by Major Source Categories in Fresno
County in 1970 139
5-3 Reactivity Assumptions for Stationary Sources 141
5-4 Growth Assumptions for Stationary Source Emissions 142
5-5 Aircraft Emissions in Fresno County by Operations Type .... 145
5-6 Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions From Aircraft in Fresno County 145
5-7 Baseline Motor Vehicle Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions -
Fresno County 149
5-8 Baseline Motor Vehicle - Fresno County 154
5-9 Daily VMT in Fresno County 163
5-10 Average Speeds in Fresno County (1970) 163
5-11 Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 177
5-12 Carbon Monoxide Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 178
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
5-13 Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 179
5-14 Proposed Control Strategy - Fresno County 180
6-1 Kern County Baseline Emission Inventory, 1971, 1975, 1977
and 1980 193
6-2 Relative Emissions by Major Source Categories in Kern County
in 1971 196
6-3 Reactivity Assumptions for Stationary Sources 197
6-4 Growth Assumptions for Stationary Source Emissions 198
6-5 Aircraft Emissions in Kern County by Operations Type 202
6-6 Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions from Aircraft in Kern County 202
6-7 Baseline Motor Vehicle Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions -
Kern County 205
6-8 Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions - Kern County 211
6-9 Daily VMT in Kern County 219
6-10 Average Speeds in Kern County (1971) - . . . . 219
6-11 Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 233
6-12 Carbon Monoxide Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 234
6-13 Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions From Motor Vehicles - Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 235
6-14 Proposed Control Strategy - Kern County 236
7-1 Strategy Costs in San Joaquin County
7-2 Strategy Costs in Fresno County
7-3 Strategy Costs in Kern County
7-4 Car Ownership by Age of Household Head
7-5 Car Ownership by Household Income Level
vm
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
7-6 Summary of Social Impacts 261
8-1 Proposed Implementation Time Schedule
8-2 Agency Responsibility for Control Measure Implementation . . 270
A-l Passenger Car Model Distribution for Kern, Fresno, and San
Joaquin Counties A-5
A-2 Distribution of Average Annual Mileage and California
Statewide Data A-6
A-3 Weighted Annual Travel by Model and Total Annual Travel for
Light Duty Vehicles in Fresno County for Base Year 1970 . . . A-9
A-4 Weighted Annual Travel by Model and Total Annual Travel for
Light Duty Vehicles in Kern County for Base Year 1971 .... A-10
A-5 Weighted Annual Travel by Model and Total Annual Travel for
Light Duty Vehicles in San Joaquin for Base Year 1971 .... A-ll
A-6 Carbon Monoxide, Hydrocarbon, and Nitrogen Oxides Light Duty
Vehicle Exhaust Emission Factors for the State of California,
Base Year 1971 A-12
A-7 Carbon Monoxide, Hydrocarbon, and Nitrogen Oxides Light Duty
Vehicle Exhaust Emission Factors for the State of California
Effective after July, 1974 A-13
A-8 Light Duty Crankcase and Evaporative Hydrocarbon Emissions by
Model Year in California, Base Year and Projected Years ... A-l4
A-9 Summary of Vehicular Travel, Fresno, Kern, and San Joaquin
Counties A-20
A-10 Heavy Duty Gasoline-Powered Vehicle Exhaust Emission Factors
California Only A-21
A-ll Heavy Duty Gasoline-Powered Vehicle Crankcase and Evaporative
Hydrocarbon Emissions by Model Year for California A-22
A-12 Commercial Vehicle Model Year Distribution A-24
A-13 VMT for Heavy Duty Gasoline Powered Vehicles for Fresno County
(Base Year 1970) . A-25
A-l4 VMT for Heavy Duty Diesel Powered Vehicles (Calculated) . . . A-27
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
A-15 Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
Fresno County A-29
A-16 Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
San Joaquin County A-30
A-17 Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
Kern County A-31
A-18 Motorcycle (4 Stroke) Reactive Hydrocarbon Baseline Emissions,
Kern County A-32
A-19 Motorcycle (4 Stroke) Reactive Hydrocarbon Baseline Emissions,
San Joaquin Valley A-33
Ar20 Motorcycle (4 Stroke) Reactive Hydrocarbon Baseline Emissions,
Fresno County A-34
A-21 Motorcycle (2 Stroke) Reactive Hydrocarbon Baseline Emissions,
Kern County A-35
A-22 Motorcycle (2 Stroke) Reactive Hydrocarbon Baseline Emissions,
San Joaquin County A-36
A-23 Motorcycle (2 Stroke) Reactive Hydrocarbon Baseline Emissions,
Fresno County A-37
B-l Summary of Motor Vehicle Travel, San Joaquin County B-2
B-2 Weekday Trips by Type of Trip and Mode of Travel, Stockton
Area B-4
B-3 Home Interview Weekday Trips by Purpose, Stockton Area . . . B-5
B-4 Persons in Vehicle, Weekday Auto and Pickup Driver Trips -
Stockton Area B-6
B-5 Type of Weekday Parking . B-7
B-6 Vehicle Ownership by Housing Unit Type B-8
B-7 Summary of Motor Vehicle Travel, Fresno County B-9
B-8 Survey Trips by Type of Trip, Fresno - Clovis Area B-ll
B-9 Home Interview Weekday Trips by Purpose, Fresno - Clovis Area B-l2
B-10 Weekday Auto and Pickup Driver Trips, Number in Vehicle,
Fresno=Clovis Area B-l3
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
B-ll Home Interview Weekday Driver Trips, Type of Parking -
Clovis Area B-14
B-12 Vehicle Ownership by Housing Unit Type, Fresno -
Clovis Area B-15
B-13 Summary of Motor Vehicle Travel, Kern County B-16
B-14 Trips by Type and Mode of Travel, Bakersfield Area (Weekdays) . B-18
B-15 Home Interview Trips by Purpose, Bakersfield Area (Weekdays) . B-19
B-16 Type of Parking - Housing Unit Expanded Sample Data,
Bakersfield Area (Weekdays) B-20
B-17 Vehicles by Housing Unit Type, Bakersfield Area B-21
C-l Emission Factors per Landing - Takeoff Cycle for Aircraft . . . C-2
C-2 EPA Aircraft Classification C-3
C-3 Emission Factors for Class 3 Aircraft C-4
C-4 Data for Computation of Projected Civil Aircraft Emissions . . C-5
C-5 Composition of the U. S. Air Carrier Fleet by Type of Aircraft
and Number of Engines C-9
C-6 Aircraft Class Correlation C-10
C-7 Commercial Air Carrier Operations in Base Year C-l4
C-8 Calculation of Commercial Air Carrier Emissions C-15
C-9 Non-Commercial Aircraft Operations in Base Year C-17
C-10 Calculation of Base Year Emissions from Non-Commercial Aircraft C-20
C-ll Estimated Aircraft Emissions at Lemoore Naval Air Station . . . C-23
F-l Projections of Significant Variables for San Joaquin County . . F-8
F-2 Projections of Significant Variables for Fresno County F-12
F-3 Projections of Significant Variables for Kern County F-16
XI
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page
1-1 1975 Carbon Monoxide Emissions, Based on the General Motors
Report to the Environmental Protection Agency 13
2-1 San Joaquin Valley Air Basin 20
3-1 Control Measure Evaluation Methodology 27
3-2 Percentage of Emissions From Major Sources in San Joaquin
Valley Air Basin, 1970 55
3-3 Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy - Oxidant
Emission Controls for the San Joaquin Valley Region 62
3-4 Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy - Carbon
Monoxide Emission Controls for the San Joaquin Valley Region . . 63
3-5 Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy -r Nitrogen
Dioxide Emission Controls for the San Joaquin Valley Region 64
4-1 Comparison of Total Oxidant and Total Hydrocarbon
Concentrations in Stockton (Hazelton Street Monitoring
Station) on 5 October 1971 68
4-2 Diurnal Variation of One-Hour Average Carbon Monoxide
Concentrations in Stockton on Dates of Maximum Eight-Hour
Average Concentration for Each Year 70
4-3 Monthly Averages of Maximum Hourly Averages for Total
Oxidant and Carbon Monoxide in Stockton in 1971 71
4-4 Percentage of Emissions From Major Source Categories in
San Joaquin County in 1971 . . 74
4-5 Projected VMT and Vehicle Registrations for San Joaquin County 87
4-6 Relative Baseline Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions for the
Vehicle Types - San Joaquin County 88
4-7 Degree of Baseline Control for Various Vehicle Types -
San Joaquin Valley 90
4-8 Baseline Total VMT Determinations for San Joaquin County .... 93
4-9 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin
County - Reactive Hydrocarbon (1970-1980) 119
4-10 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin
County - Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980). 120
xn
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LIST OF FIGURES (Continued)
5-1 Comparison of Total Oxidant and Total Hydrocarbon Con-
centrations in Fresno on 22 August 1970 133
5-2 Diurnal Variation of One-Hour Average Carbon Monoxide
Concentrations in Fresno on Dates of Maximum Eight-Hour
Average Concentration for Each Year 134
5-3 Monthly Averages of Maximum Hourly Averages for Total
Oxidant and Carbon Monoxide in Fresno in 1970 135
5-4 Percentage of Emissions from Major Source Categories in
Fresno County in 1970 138
5-5 Projected VMT and Vehicle Registration for Fresno County . . 150
5-6 Relative Baseline Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions for the
Vehicle Types - Fresno County 151
5-7 Degree of Baseline Control for Various Vehicle Types 153
5-8 Baseline Total VMT Determination for Fresno County 157
5-9 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno County -
Reactive Hydrocarbon (1970-1980) 175
5-10 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno County -
Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980) 176
6-1 Comparison of Total Oxidant and Total Hydrocarbon Concentra-
tions in Bakersfield (Golden State Ave.) on 15 July 1971 . . 189
6-2 Diurnal Variation of One-Hour Average Carbon Monoxide
Concentrations in Bakersfield on Dates of Maximum Eight-Hour
Average Concentrations for Each Year 190
6-3 Monthly Averages of Maximum Hourly Averages for Total Oxidant
and Carbon Monoxide in Bakersfield in 1971 191
6-4 Percentage of Emissions From Major Source Categories in Kern
County in 1971 194
6-5 Projected VMT and Vehicle Registration for Kern County . . . 207
6-6 Relative Baseline Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions for the
Vehicle Type - Kern County 208
6-7 Degree of Baseline Control For Various Vehicle Types For Kern
County 209
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LIST OF FIGURES (Continued)
Page
6-8 Baseline Total VMT Determination for Kern County . 213
6-9 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern County -
Reactive Hydrocarbons (1970-1980) 231
6-10 Summary of Control Strategy Effectivness for Kern County -
Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980) 232
A-l Vehicle Miles Driven Per Year Vs. Age of Vehicle, Statewide
Distribution A-7
A-2 Kern County - Estimated Hydrocarbon Baseline Emissions from
Light Duty Vehicles in 1971 A-16
A-3 Bern County - Estimated Carbon Monoxide Baseline Emissions
from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971 A-17
A-4 Kern County - Estimated Nitrogen Oxides Baseline Emissions
from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971 A-18
F-l San Joaquin County Projections for Population and Economic
Variables F-6
F-2 San Joaquin County Projections for Motor Vehicles and
Gasoline Consumption (1960-1980) F-7
F-3 Fresno County Projections for Population and Economic
Variables (1960-1980) F-10
F-4 Fresno County Projections for Motor Vehicles and Gasoline
Consumption (1960-1980) F-ll
\
F-5 Kern County Projections for Population and Economic Variables
(1960-1980) F-14
F-6 Kern County Projections for Motor Vehicles and Gasoline
Consumption (1960-1980) F-15
xiv
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1.0 SUMMARY
For the purposes of this study, three counties -- San Joaquin,
Fresno, and Kern -- have been selected from those in the San Joaquin Valley
Air Basin in which National Ambient Air Quality Standards have been ex-
ceeded. These counties have been treated as essentially independent
entities with regard to the analysis of ambient air quality, pollutant
emissions, demographics, and transportation. The reasons and justifica-
tion for this are contained in later sections of the report.
As a result of this study, an air pollution control strategy has
been developed and recommended for each county. Each of these strategies
is discussed in this report at length and individually, although, due to
similarities in the nature of the problems and the character of the three
areas, the strategies are quite similar.
In this summary, an attempt has been made to reflect the essence of
the results emergent from this study. The findings and recommendations
are discussed in Section 1.1. This section includes a synopsis of each
of the recommended control measures, which are common to the three coun-
ties. Section 1.2 involves the schedule for implementation of these
measures and the expected obstacles to implementation of the measures.
In Section 1.3 are discussed the limitations of the analysis.
1.1 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The following summarize the major findings and recommendations that
have emerged as a result of this study.
Findings:
The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for photo-
chemical oxidants have been exceeded at several locations in the
San Joaquin Valley Air Basin.
Carbon monoxide standards have been exceeded in each of the three
counties included in this study, but to a lesser extent than the
oxidant standards in each case.
Existing and planned stationary and mobile source controls are
1
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inadequate for achieving the NAAQS; therefore, additional control
measures are clearly required.
Presently planned transportation improvement programs will result
in very minor air quality improvements.
The topography and climate of the basin are conducive to high oxi-
dant levels being formed, primarily during the warm months of the
year.
Motor vehicle emissions are and w.ill continue to be the major
contributors to the air pollution problem; due to projected
controls, however, their relative contribution to the problem
is slowly decreasing.
t Aircraft, motorcycle, and heavy duty vehicle emissions are
currently minor sources of pollution; these sources become more
significant as the target dates for compliance to air quality
standards near.
The present life styles in the air basin appear detrimental to
attainment of the established air quality goals, largely because
of the personal dependence on the motor vehicle; any solution
will have a major impact on the socio-economic fiber of the
region.
Annual inspection/maintenance is necessary to obtain the full
benefit of Federal and state vehicle emission control programs.
Catalytic converter retrofits offer major emission reduction
potential. However, questions regarding the availability of lead
free fuel and the widespread applicability of the devices remain
unanswered.
Control measure evaluations for VMT reduction offer only modest
gains towards the air quality objectives; adequate, alternative
means of transportation available in the basin are limited, both
in urban and non-urban areas, largely because of the design and
character of the communities themselves.
Existing and projected public transit services can handle sub-
stantial increases in ridership.
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A multiplicity of agencies and organizations would be involved
and/or affected by attempts to implement certain control measures;
it appears that funding and institutional contraints will be very
significant for many of the measures evaluated.
The required enabling legislation to allow for several high
priority control measures (e.g., mandatory inspection/maintenance
and catalytic converter retrofit) will be difficult to obtain
during the 1973 state legislative session.
Recommendations
It is recommended that the Phase I control measures described in this
report be implemented as quickly as possible. The continuation of the
state's ongoing motor vehicle control program plus these measures should
result in a significant improvement of the air quality by 1975-1977.
The final decision regarding the implementation of the Phase II measures
should be deferred until a careful analysis is made of the impact of
such measures upon the residents of the region. Many issues noted in the
report remain to be resolved. One critical issue which must be resolved
is the short term requirements being imposed by the Clean Air Act of
1970 and the long range transportation planning goals of the San Joaquin
Valley counties and cities. It is unclear that short range measures being
considered are consistent and compatible with the long range transporta-
tion system envisioned for the 1980's. If through careful land use and
transportation planning, the air basin can be directed toward less auto-
mobile dependence, every effort should be made to allow for this smooth
transition. This implies short term controls which may be counterproduc-
tive to long range goals will have to be carefully weighed before full
implementation. This is especially critical in light of available funding
for a limited number of short and long term options.
The following paragraphs briefly summarize the control measures
which make up the recommended strategies for the three San Joaquin Valley
counties dealt with in this study. These strategies are more completely
described in Sections 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0, in relation to each of the three
counties, respectively. After these summaries is a discussion of recom-
mended long-term ooals and the institutional and legal requirements
thereof.
3
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Phase I Measures (Recommended):
1. Gasoline Evaporative Loss Controls - It is evident that as exhaust
hydrocarbon emissions are more stringently controlled, the.percentage
contribution of hydrocarbon emissions from evaporative losses due to nor-
mal gasoline handling and transfer operations will increase significantly.
Therefore, it is recommended that controls be required to either prevent
or capture these vapor losses before escaping to the atmosphere. Control
systems for certain transfer operations are presently available and should
be installed as quickly as possible -- bulk terminals, underground storage
tanks.
2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - Spurred in part by their con-
tribution to the air pollution problem, the paint and varnish industry
has for some time been engaged in research and development of less pollut-
ing surface coating formulations. Examples of new formulations entering
these markets are water-based or high solids content products. It has
been estimated by representatives in the industry that significant inroads
can be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute less reactive surface coat-
ings for certain applications.
3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - Certain large dry cleaning plants continue
to use reactive petroleum solvents in their normal operations. In these
plants, it is possible to install activated carbon adsorption systems to
control solvent vapors.
4. Degreaser Substitution - In areas with acute air pollution, substitu-
tion of less reactive solvents for presently used degreaser solvents is a
control measure which can readily be implemented.
5. Burning Regulation - Both current and proposed Air Resources Board
regulations for backyard, agricultural, and lumber industry incineration
practices are aimed at either restricting incineration or requiring more
efficient burning practices. It is estimated that such regulation will
result in significant reductions in emissions in the San Joaquin Valley in
1975 and 1977.
6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - In an attempt to derive the full
benefit from both new and used car emission controls, it is recommended
that a mandatory annual inspection/maintenance program be established.
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Initially, to minimize many of the administrative and technical problems
associated with instituting such a program, it is recommended that an
idle emissions test only be required at the state owned and operated test
facilities. After the program has been operative for several years and
most of the administrative details adequately worked out, it is recommended
that a loaded emissions testing program be instituted by upgrading the
testing facilities with the necessary additional equipment and personnel.
7. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - The California Air Resources Board
has been and is currently evaluating catalytic converters as a retrofit
for pre-1974 vehicles. Preliminary data indicate that large emission
reductions are possible with these devices. The CARB has proposed wide-
spread use of this retrofit as a measure for 'meeting the NAAQS, even
though questions relating to the availability of lead free fuel and the
overall applicability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles remain
unresolved. Catalysts developed to date require the use of lead-free
gasoline to prevent poisoning of the catalytic element. It remains to
be seen what percentage of the older vehicles can operate satisfactorily
on lead-free gasoline.
8. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - The California Air Resources Board has
accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon and oxides of nitrogen
emissions from 1955-1965 vehicles. These devices have thus far been
required only in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air
Basins. The devices are essentially a vacuum spark advance disconnect
(VSAD) with a thermal override switch to prevent overheating, or an
electronic ignition system.
9. Mass Transit - Actually three measures under the heading of mass
transit are recommended for implementation in San Joaquin County:
Improved Public Transit, Increased Car Pooling, and Parking Control.
Improved Public Transit - To increase public transit use through
greater frequency of service, such as 10-15 minute headways, and
more complete coverage, it is recommended that the present bus
system be greatly expanded. Assuming that this will be possible
by capital grants and allowance of a greater percentage of SB325
for operating expenditures, some estimate can be made as to what
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this would do to the total VMT in the region.
Increased Car Pooling - Hopefully, through incentives, car pool
matching, and an energetic public information program, car pooling
can be encouraged to such an extent that work trips can be signi-
ficantly reduced. This will have a different impact on VMT in
each county.
t Parking Control - A control measure of limiting construction of
additional long-term parking spaces along with increased long-term
parking rates should help to somewhat decrease exclusive use of
private automobiles for work trips to the CBD. The measure will
require increased enforcement of parking time limits in short-term
parking locations as well as prohibition of meter feeding by all-
day parkers.
In summary, however, it is probable that implementation of a series
of mass transit improvements plus incentives to discourage the private
use of the automobile will probably only result in very modest VMT re-
ductions by 1975-1977.
The necessity for recommending measures which significantly impact
the personal and economic life of the individual results, in large part,
from the fact that satisfactory alternative modes of travel do not cur-
rently exist and cannot be instituted or sufficiently improved within
the temporal and budgetary constraints associated with the air pollution
problem in the San Joaquin Air Basin. However, it is perhaps within the
purview of this study to recommend how, in the long term, this difficult
situation may be remedied.
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The solution requires cooperation among existing Federal, state and
local agencies, as well as some possible changes in procedure. There is a
tremendous gap between current land use/transportation policies and air
quality objectives, at the Federal as well as at the state and loca.l
levels. Current trends are toward dispersed, low density development
patterns, more and longer trips, more and cheaper parking, and, until
recently, poorer transit service. This all means increasing auto use,
vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and smog. To turn this chain of events
around requires concerted transportation, land use, and air pollution
policy: laws, funding, and state and regional agencies with teeth.
Federal direction and financial support is required for the success
of both short-term and long-term transportation control measures. DOT,
HEW, HUD and Interior programs must be aligned toward reducing vehicle
miles of travel and making it easier to use transit, car pools, bicycles
and walking. Specific Federal measures which would be of great benefit
to air pollution control in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin are as
follows:
1. National land use policy which emphasizes the importance of
(a) higher density, more compact urban development; (b) stronger
central city cores; (c) checks on the scattered location of
major traffic generators within urban areas (employment,
shipping centers, colleges); (d) growth of smaller areas of
less pollution and VMT.
2. Transportation funds shifted from auto subsidy to transit
subsidy. Financial support for transit operations is critical
to the success of air pollution control strategies. Trans-
portation policy should encourage highway density, more compact
urban development.
3. Funds for sewer and water facilities which encourage compact
urban development of higher densities and avoid urban sprawl
which generates more and longer auto trips.
4. HUD housing finance and facility grants and loads should
encourage high density, more compact urban development; e.g.,
emphasize housing rehabilitation and provide 99% FHA financing
near CBD graduated down to say 50% at urban fringe.
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Possible state transportation, land use and air pollution control
mechanisms could include the following:
1. Transportation development, land use policy, and air pollution
control legislated and orchestrated at the state level, but
administered and implemented at the local (metropolitan or
regional) level. The State Air Resources Board, Department of
Transportation and a new state land use agency would each
maintain programs and controls in their respective areas.
a. The new land use agency envisioned would be structured along
the lines of the Bay Conservation and Development Commission
and California Coastline Commissions.
b. The Department of Transportation should be empowered to
adjust bridge tolls, levy parking taxes or freeway tolls,
and place physical constrictions on the state and Federal
roadways in order to encourage transit use and reduce VMT.
2. A joint board, composed of equal representation from the trans-
portation, land use and air pollution areas, should be formed
to dovetail actions of the separate agencies, reporting to the
Governor and Legislature on progress, problems, and remedial
action needed. Binding arbitration among the respective agencies
should be practiced if not mandated on coordinative matters.
The following are potential transportation, land use, and air
pollution control measures which could be administered from the
metropolitan or regional (i.e., air basin) level:
1. Development control with teeth (BCDC, California Coastline
Commission model).
a. Among other powers, the agency should: Develop regional
plans in the Valley for allocating and staging land
development to avert high VMT and air pollution. Land
use and employment would be allocated to zones within cities
and counties; cities and counties could develop their own
plans and zoning within the regional land use allocation
constraints. Criteria for local allocation of land use
should also be promulgated by the regional agency, .e.g.,
high density within 1/4 mile of transit route, major travel
generator within 1/8 mile of 10 minute transit service.
8
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b. Veto developments attracting more than 500 trips (large
employment, shopping housing developments, hospitals,
colleges, etc. not consistent with location and staging in
regional plans). Environmental impact reports for large
developments should be used in making travel generation
and air pollution evaluation.
c. Prohibit development where transit service is non-existent
or less than adequate to insure low VMT and achieve air
quality standards.
2. Regulation of off-street parking, bridge and freeway use via
taxes or tolls or physical constrictions where such measures
will lead to greater transit use and reduced VMT. Revenues
should be allocated to transit operations through established
Transportation Commissions.
3. Coordinative transportation and land use control boards are
envisioned at the metropolitan (regional) level (similar in
purpose to the joint State board) which cooperate with and
support the existing San Joaquin Valley Air Basin coordinating
council. Metropolitan councils of government should advise the
regional boards and provide planning support.
Measures which may be effective in controlling transportation from
the city and county level in the San Joaquin Valley are as follows:
1. City and county government should strive to coordinate their
efforts with regional control strategies. Regulate on-street
and off-street parking, i.e., zoning requirements, parking
meters, on-street parking regulations, "protected neighborhood"
parking (on-street parking by permit only), and commuter
parking tax.
2. Narrow streets, erect barriers or otherwise restrict through
traffic where these are likely to increase transit use and
reduce VMT.
3. Develop strong transit corridors 5-10 minute transit service
as a focus for high density development and major travel
generators.
4. Develop general plans and administer zoning ordinances, sub-
division regulations and capital improvements programs within
Federal, state and regional legal and financial constraints.
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1.2 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
The key dates for implementation of the proposed measures are shown
in Table 1-1. The majority of Phase I measures will be effective in
1975, as the table indicates. One exception is the second part of the
recommended Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance program (loaded test,
50% rejection rate), which begins in 1977, using the idle test program
as a forerunner. Phase II measures will all be effective in 1977, if it
has been shown that they are necessary.
The local APCD in each county will be responsible for the implementa-
tion of all stationary source control measures, for the Pre-1966 Retrofit
Device program, and probably for the Oxidizing Catalytic Converter,
after the CARS has accredited appropriate hardware. The three transporta-
tion system measures must be implemented by loca authorities. The
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance program and most of the Phase II measures
will be the responsibility of the CARB.
Major technical, political, legal and socio-economic obstancles are
anticipated for implementation of the catalytic converter program, because
of the state of development and the controversy surrounding this type
of retrofit device. Only minor obstacles are expected for all other
Phase I measures, with the possible exceptions of Improved Public Transit'
and Parking Control, which may have amjor socio-economic obstacles to
overcome. All Phase II control measures will encounter major obstacles
to implementation, whether technical, political, institutional, legal,
or socio-economic in nature.
Implementation time schedules, agency involvement, and implementation
obstacles are discussed more fully in Sections 8.1, 8.2, and 9.0,
respectively.
10
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TABLE 1-1 SUMMARY OF PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE
ITEM
KEY DATE
Promulgation of Control Strategy Plan Final Plan Promulgated 15 August 1973
PHASE I MEASURES
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative
Loss Control
All marketing facilities controlled
by mid-1975.
Organic Solvent Controls
Effective beginning 1975.
Burning Regulation
Effective beginning 1973.
Mandatory Inspection Maintenance
Idle Test, 10% Rejection Rate
Loaded Test, 50% Rejection Rate
Beginning 1975.
Beginning 1977.
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
Installation complete by mid-1975.
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Installation complete by beginning
1975.
Public Transit Improvement
Effective beginning 1975.
Increased Car Pooling
Effective beginning 1975.
Parking Controls
Effective beginning 1975.
PHASE II MEASURES
Effective 1977.
11
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1.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS
The process of developing a demonstrably effective control strategy
is fraught with many analytical difficulties and uncertainties. The severity
and extent of these uncertainties varies widely. Overall, many simplifying
assumptions are made because data are either unavailable or limited'in
nature. In some cases, the errors resulting from certain simplifying
assumptions tend to be offset by other assumptions; at other times, the
errors from certain assumptions tend to be compounded.
The net result is the proposed control strategy represents the com-
pilation, analysis, and interpretation of a large data base to arrive at
the best estimates of the existing air pollution situation and the require-
ments for attainment of the promulgated air quality standards. The nature
of the analytical methodologies and assumptions used for strategy develop-
ment tend to result in a propagated error. Therefore, the end result is
likely to contain a significant degree of uncertainty. Due to the time
and budgeting constraints, many issues were identified which deserve
closer examination.
It is therefore, highly recommended that as more comprehensive and
accurate data become available, they will be used to reevaluate the air
pollution situation. This is especially important for regions requiring
large reductions in emissions to achieve the air quality goals.
To be acceptable, an air pollution control strategy must reduce
emission levels sufficiently to allow for the attainment and maintenance
of National Ambient Air Quality Standards. In addition, an implementable
control strategy must consider the economic factors associated with its
adoption as well as the social and political changes necessary to accommo-
date each specific control measure. Unfortunately, in many instances,
these goals are diametrically opposed to each other. Strategies which are
reasonably acceptable and potentially implementable are relatively
ineffective. Conversely, strategies which are effective at reducing
emissions sufficiently, are also the least likely to be implemented and
result in major socio-economic impacts. An attempt has been made to dis-
cuss these socio-economic impacts and political aspects of the various
measures.
12
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The complexion of the air pollution problem centers around the
assumptions made for the emissions and the controls deemed possible for
each source. Since the assumptions are of foremost importance, a summary
is presented of several key ones made, their limitations, and their impact
on the overall assessment of the problem.
Emission Factors - The mobile source emission estimates presented in this
study are based upon the best available emission factors. These emission
factors are being revised in light of in-use and new vehicle testing pro-
grams being conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency and others.
It is highly recommended that new emission factors be utilized as they
become available to recompute the severity of the motor vehicle emissions.
Cold Start Effects - Preliminary data indicate that emissions generated
during the first few minutes of vehicle operation represent a large portion
of the total emissions during any individual trip. This implies the re-
duction of total vehicle trips may be more important than reducing the
vehicle miles traveled. Wendell, et. al. (26) have presented some pre-
liminary data which illustrates the disproportionate share of emissions
which are emitted when the engine is cold (Figure 1-1). Also to be
-------
considered is the increasing importance of cold start emissions as the
motor vehicles become less polluting. Table 1-2 shows the percentage
of CO emissions which occur during the first two minutes of a "typical"
trip.
TABLE 1-2. COLD START CO EMISSIONS
Model Year
1960-1967
1968-1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975-1980
% CO Emissions During
45
55
62
69
76
83
90
First 2 Minutes
The situation for HC emissions is similar, with 80 percent of the
HC emissions from a typical trip occurring during the first two minutes.
It is very apparent that with the advent of effective catalytic converters,
the cold start emissions become the largest part of the vehicular emissions.
This, of course, is due to the warm up times necessary for the catalysts to
reach optimal operating conditions.
Cold start emissions, defined as the emissions emitted after a vehicle
has not been in operation during the previous eight or twelve hours, occur
primarily during the early morning as commuters start their home-to-work
trip. These starts are spatially well distributed due to the typical
residential land use patterns.
The relative importance of cold start emissions is different for
carbon monoxide and photochemical oxidant problems. Carbon monoxide
problems generally arise when the pollutant emission density builds up,
e.g. congested CBD traffic. The problem is diffusion and transport
dominated and can be alleviated with either a temporal or spatial re-
distribution of the pollutant loading. Cold start emissions do not play
as important a role in carbon monoxide problems as low speeds or stop and
go traffic.
14
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On the other hand, cold start emissions do play a significant role
in both the severity and the regional character of photochemical oxidant
problems. The relatively uniform distribution of substantial hydrocarbon
emissions during the same time period in which solar radiation intensity
is building up leads to the typical morning buildup of photochemical
oxidant precursors and subsequently oxidants. Due to the reaction time
needed to initiate and build up ozone levels, the most effective control
strategy is to eliminate the reactants which lead to ozone formation.
This implies that redistributing the emissions will only transfer the
problem in time and/or space and will not significantly reduce the
severity of the oxidant levels. In this respect then, strategies aimed
at eliminating the trip, e.g. by substituting communication links to ful-
fill the trip purpose, should be more important than measures which simply
reduce VMT by the same amount after a hot start.
Due to time and budgetary constraints, the impact of hot vs. cold
starts on the distribution patterns of pollutants, and subsequently on
air quality, was not analyzed in this study. It has been shown in Los
Angeles that cold start emissions do play an important role in the nature
of the oxidant problem (27,28). It is therefore recommended in future
studies which do employ more rigorous modeling techniques to evaluate
control strategy impacts, that the effect of hot vs. cold start emissions
be considered.
Traffic Data Projections - Historically, traffic data projections have
not been collected with the intent of using them for estimating motor
vehicle emissions. The data, including vehicle flow speeds and model
mixes, were reworked into the format necessary for emission calculations.
Potential inaccuracies were introduced by this process. Projections of
motor vehicle growth and VMT have been prepared by various agencies and
little unanimity has been found concerning appropriate growth rates.
Changes in traffic patterns and transit usage should be closely monitored
between now and 1977 so that deviations can be determined and appropriate
adjustments made in the control strategy.
Hydrocarbon Reactivity Assumptions - The limiting constraint for attaining
the NAAQS in the regions examined has been the photochemical oxidant
problem. This implies more stringent controls of the reactive hydrocarbons,
15
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and to a lesser degree the nitrogen oxides which lead to its formation.
Rollback calculations, based on reducing reactive hydrocarbons in
proportion to the severity of the ozone, require certain assumptions
regarding the reactive components of the hydrocarbon emission inventory.
To date, there have been numerous definitions of "reactive" as well as
numerous scales developed to approximate differences in hydrocarbon
reactivity. Most of these data have been based on smog chamber results
which attempt to simulate certain atmospheric conditions. They are in-
tended to show which hydrocarbon species under what conditions will
result in oxidant formation. Several critical parameters monitored in
these experiments are: the time required for maximum oxidant formation,
initial hydrocarbon concentration and hydrocarbon to nitrogen oxides
ratios. Other experiments have irradiated various exhaust stream gases
in the smog chambers to determine the relative reactivity of the mixtures.
The most frequently voiced objection to these types of results is
their applicability to the "real world" situation. Even if the various
scientific teams could agree on smog chamber results, the issue of the
validity of the results in an urban environment with a wide range of
particulate loadings, solar intensities, humidities, temperatures, and
inversions remains unresolved.
The reactivity assumptions used in this study have been provided by
either the Environmental Protection Agency or the California Air Resources
Board (see Sections 4.1, 5.4, and 6.1). In several cases, significant
differences of opinion exist on the reactivity of certain emission cate-
gories. The impact of different reactivity assumptions is very significant
and can substantially affect the complexion of the problem. Using rollback
calculations, higher reactivity assumptions, in and of themselves, do not
make attainment of the standards more difficult. However, when they are
coupled to emission categories in which little, if any, controls are
possible, the effect is significantly increasing the baseline emission
inventory, while not allowing for commensurate reductions to help solve
the problem.
Because of the marked differences on control strategy effectiveness
from different reactivity assumptions, it is highly recommended that
16
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additional studies be initiated to clarify many of the uncertainties
which presently exist regarding the definition of hydrocarbon reactivity.
These studies should be aimed at resolving the inconsistencies which now
exist among various industries and governmental agencies. More important,
however, the studies should advance our knowledge of hydrocarbon reactivity
as it relates to oxidant formation in our urban environments.
The Rollback Method - The key calculation in control measure assessment is
relating projected emission levels to expected ambient air quality. Due
to time and contractual constraints, it was not possible to utilize
sophisticated modeling techniques to develop this relationship. Therefore,
control strategy reductions were based on a rollback technique that relates
existing emissions and air quality on a proportional basis. As simplistic
as the linear rollback model is, it usually understates the requirements
for attaining clean air. That is, if a linear rollback model is used,
the strategies which are developed will be more lenient than those which
would probably be required if one went to either a statistical model or
an analytical model which incorporates the photochemistry, meteorology,
and topography. The basis for this statement is documented in several
references (29-32). In every study cited, a non-linear model is used.
The results of these studies is that by using a more sophisticated ap-
proach, more stringent requirements are necessary in order to arrive at
the required air quality goals.
The implications of this are clear. Even though the proposed
control strategies evaluated are likely to result in substantial socio-
economic impact, it appears that even with their successful implementation,
there is no guarantee that the oxidant standard can be achieved by the
required date. In fact, it is very probable that the standard will not
be reached.
In view of the shortcomings of the linear rollback method, it is
recommended that more rigorous modeling techniques, i.e., statistical and
analytical, be used as they become available for reassessing the impact
of the control strategies. They should also be used between now and 1977
to modify the control strategy recommended in this document as more recent
air quality and emission inventory information become available.
17
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2.0 BACKGROUND OF STUDY
The discussion in this section involves the background of the study
and sets the stage for the analysis of the problem and the development of
a solution. The study objective is presented in Section 2.1; a descrip-
tion of the topography, climate, meteorology, demographics, and
transportation of the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin is included in
Section 2.2; and the air pollution problem is defined in terms of air
quality, rollback, and allowable emissions in Section 2.3.
2.1 STUDY OBJECTIVE
The overall objective of this study is to develop a control strategy
that will achieve and maintain the carbon monoxide, photochemical oxidant,
and nitrogen dioxide National Ambient Air Quality Standards in the San
Joaquin Valley Air Basin in the years 1975 and 1977. As part of this
study the plan shall be assessed for its effectiveness, feasibility, and
socio-economic impact.
In conforming to the study objective, TRW was responsive to the tasks
outlined in the contract requirements. Briefly, these tasks were:
t A review of the California Emission Inventory (with particular
attention to the identification of unacceptable methodology,
updates, and revision).
A review of Air Quality Data through the year 1972.
A review of the most recent progress of the California Air
Resources Board in the Development of transportation controls.
t An estimation of the probable emission reductions and antici-
pated impact on air quality resulting from the California
control strategy.
An assessment of the legal, economic, political, and institu-
tional obstacles that can be anticipated upon implementation
of the recommended controls.
A formulation of implementation timetable from July 1973
through January 1977.
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2.2 REGIONAL DESCRIPTION
The San Joaquin Valley Air Basin consists of all of the counties of
Amador, Calaveras, Fresno, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, San Joaquin,
Stanislaus, Tulare and Tuolumne and the western portion of Kern County.
The air basin lies in the southern portion of the Great Valley and extends
into the neighboring mountain slopes. It is bounded on the west by the
Coastal Range, on the east by the Sierra Nevada Mountains, on the south by
the Tehachapi Mountains, and on the north by the Sacramento Valley Air
Basin. A map of the basin is shown on Figure 2-1.
Because of the temperature contrast during much of the year between
the Valley and the Pacific waters, air from the coast enters the Valley,
primarily through the gap at San Francisco Bay, and undergoes rapid modi-
fication in temperature and relative humidity. Part of the flow turns
northward into the Sacramento Valley and part southward into the San
Joaquin Valley. A wind divergence zone is created by the splitting of
the airflow through the Coast Range. The mean summer position of this
divergent zone lies at about the Sacramento-San Joaquin and the Amador-
El Dorado County borders.
The basin includes 30,200 square miles of land surface and had a
population over 1.6 million people in 1970, which is a 16 percent in-
crease since 1960. Although the basin contains 19 percent of the state's
land area, only 8 percent of its people reside within the basin.
A network of railroads, air routes, and highways interconnect the
three major urban centers in the San Joaquin Valley -- Stockton, Fresno,
and Bakersfield -- and provide access for major recreational areas of
Yosemite, Kings Canyon and Sequoia National Parks located in the eastern
portion of the valley. Port facilities for water transportation are
available only in Stockton; hence waterways are not a significant part
of the circulation of people and goods within the Valley.
The railroad system within the Valley is principally limited to the
shipment of industrial, agricultural, and commercial freight. Passenger
services which are being offered nationally by the newly created national
railway system, AMTRAK, has not been extended to the study area.
19
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Location of
Basin
Jackson
Figure 2-1. San Joaquin Valley Air Basin
20
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Each of the three major urban centers have airports which are served
by the intrastate airways and have facilities for both private and public
airlines. The public need for air freight and travel by air within the
Valley is adequately served by these airports.
The Valley highway network is the primary constituent of the trans-
portation system. Freeways and highways interconnect the major urban
centers in the Valley and provide access to major recreational facilities
for residents of the Valley as well as residents of other portions of
California and the United States, while arterials, collectors, and locals
provide for circulation of motor vehicles within the urban centers. At
present few freeways exist for local circulation in the three major urban
areas.
Of the exi.sting freeways in the study area Route 99 is the backbone
of the entire region. Most of the urban, industrial and agricultural
development within the Valley is located along this facility which has
historically served as a primary north-south transportation facility for
trucked commodities and motor vehicle passengers with origins and desti-
nations not only within the Valley but other major urban centers in
California as well.
In recognition of the demand for a north-south "through route" a
new major freeway has recently been completed within the San Joaquin
Valley. The new Interstate 5 (1-5) generally parallels Route 99 to the
west and bypasses almost all existing communities within the Valley.
Ultimately 1-5 will extend along the west coast of the United States from
the border of Canada to Mexico.
Intercity bus companies provide passenger services within the Valley;
however, among the variety of different modes of transportation available
the private automobile is by far the dominant mode. It was previously
established that the primary air pollution problem is a result of an
excess of reactive hydrocarbons, a large fraction of which are emitted by
automobiles. The quantity of hydrocarbon emissions from automobiles is
directly related to the vehicle miles of travel (VMT) within the region
and inversely related to the average speeds of travel (see Appendix A);
consequently air pollution control strategies.directed at reducing the
21
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dominance of the automobile in the transportation system of the San
Joaquin Valley will result in a reduction of the air pollution problem.
2.3 PROBLEM DEFINITION
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been exceeded in
seven cities in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin. These cities are:
Stockton, Fresno, Bakersfield, Modesto, Visalia, Parlier, and Five
Points (1). Each of the areas surrounding the cities have unique
characteristics with regard to air quality, meteorology, stationary
sources, population distribution, and transportation. An adequate trans-
portation strategy must therefore consider each area individually in
order that the peculiarities of each area be considered and efficiently
dealt with. Some of the control measures which will be considered in this
study can only be effectively applied locally; others, because of legal
and procedural constraints, may not be reasonable unless applied to a larg-
er area: the air basin or the state. An example of the first type of
measure would be parking restrictions in the central business district of
a city; an example of the second type would be a vehicle retrofit program.
Three counties in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin have been selected
for study: San Joaquin County, Fresno County, and Kern County. San
Joaquin County contains the city of Stockton; Fresno County contains the
cities of Fresno, Parlier, and Five Points; Kern County contains
Bakersfield. The air pollution problems of Modesto and Visalia are not
directly dealt with in this study; it is hoped that the general analytical
results, ideas, and methodologies may be of benefit to these areas in
local planning. (Basin-wide and state-wide control measures, of course,
will be of direct benefit to these areas.) Approximately 65 percent of
the total population lives within these three counties. The extremely
high potential for growth in both population and travel in these three
counties increases the need to concentrate this particular study on them
and treat them as relatively independent entities.
Table 2-1 provides a summary of maximum air quality readings in
the cities of Stockton, Fresno, and Bakersfield and indicates the rollback
required for each. Oxidant and carbon monoxide data are presented in this
table; NAAQS for nitrogen dioxide have not been exceeded in the San Joaquin
22
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TABLE 2-1. SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AIR QUALITY SUMMARY AND ROLLBACK REQUIREMENTS
AREA
STOCKTON
FRESNO
BAKERSFIELD
AREA
STOCKTON
FRESNO
BAKERSFIELD
1970 MAX
0.18
16 May
Hazel ton St
0.21
22 Aug
So. Cedar
0.15
18 June
Golden State
1970 MAX
OXIDANT
(1 Hr Ava)
NAAOS: 0.08 pptn
1971 MAX 1972 MAX
0.20 0.15
5 Oct 21 Sept
Hazel ton St Hazel ton St
0.18 0.19
14 July 3C June
12 Sept
Court Roof Court Roof
0.22 0.18
15 July 29 June
Chester Chester
CARBON MONOXIDE
(8 Hr Ave)
NAAQS: 9 ppm
1971 MAX 1972 MAX
12 17 14
20 Nov 2 Nov 25 Oct
Stockton Hotel Stockton Hazel ton St.
Hotel
11 13 10
19 Oct 6 Nov 30 Dec
Court Roof Court Roof Court Roof
15 14 13
16 Nov 8 Oct; 7 Jan
Golden State 20 Dec. Chester
Chester Ave. Ave.
APPROXIMATE ROLL-
BACK REQUIRED FOR
HIGH-REACTIVITY
HYDROCARBONS, FROM
WORST READING
60% (1971)
62% (1970)
64% (1971)
APPROXIMATE ROLL-
BACK REQUIRED, FROM
INDICATED READING
47% (1971)
18% (1970)
36% (1971)
23
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Valley Air Basin. Monitoring data for Parlier and Five Points will not be
used in this study because a complete year of data does not exist and be-
cause transportation and land use data is insufficient. It is likely that
air quality in these two communities will be strongly improved by trans-
portation control strategies implemented in Fresno County.
The table indicates that the highest oxidant readings in Stockton,
Fresno, and Bakersfield occurred in 1971, 1970, and 1971, respectively.
These years, as a result, have been selected as the base years in the
counties of San Joaquin, Fresno, and Kern, respectively. The year of
occurrence of the maximum carbon monoxide eight-hour average in Stockton
is consistent with the oxidant maximum; however, the same is not true in
Fresno and Bakersfield. The base years for the cities have been selected
in accordance with the maximum oxidant readings - that is, 1971 for
Stockton, 1970 for Fresno, and 1971 for Bakersfield - since the oxidant
problem corresponds to higher rollback requirements and it, rather than
carbon monoxide, will probably be the limiting constraint in the basin
for achieving the NAAQS.
The 1971 CO reading in Fresno corresponds to a rollback of 38%.
Selection of 1970 as a base year in Fresno will probably not present a
problem, since the rollback required for oxidant is 62%, based on 1970
air quality, and the control measures evaluated in this study generally
apply with approximately equal effectiveness for both hydrocarbons and
carbon monoxide. A similar argument is true for Bakersfield, where the
1970 CO maximum corresponds to a rollback of 40%, compared to 64% for
reactive hydrocarbon rollback based on the 1971 oxidant maximum.
The rollback values correlated with the oxidant readings on the
table are to be applied to reactive hydrocarbon emissions in each county.
The rollback values have been calculated with the assumptions that
natural background concentrations of oxidant are zero and that there is a
linear relationship between oxidant air quality and emission rates of
reative hydrocarbons.
The allowable emissions, based on the base year emission data for
each county (see Sections 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2) and corresponding to
the achievement of the NAAQS, are shown in Table 2-2.
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TABLE 2-2.
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS BY COUNTY
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS (TONS/DAY)
REACTIVE CARBON
COUNTY HYDROCARBONS MONOXIDE
San Joaquin 15.6 113
Fresno . 19.8 271
Kern 17.1 245
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3.0 CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
The discussion of the development of a control strategy is presented
in a general manner in this section to acquaint the reader with the
methods, alternatives, and data requirements for developing an area-
specific strategy. The approach used by TRW in this study is described
in Section 3.1. A "shopping list" of alternative control measures is
presented with brief discussion in Section 3.2. In Section 3.3 is a
review of the recently issued California Air Resources Board control
strategy for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin.
3.1 TECHNICAL APPROACH
The methodology used in this study is illustrated in Figure 3-1.
It consists of three "models", each of which outputs a specific type of
pertinent information. The Vehicle Population Model predicts population
distributions of light duty vehicles (LDV) and heavy duty vehicles (HDV)
for future years; in this study, the years are 1975, 1977 and 1980.
Vehicle demographic data is input to this model and includes the following:
Population projections for LDV, HDV and motorcycles to 1975,
1977 and 1980 for each of the three San Joaquin Valley counties
included in this study, based on a regression analysis of
historic state population data.
Vehicle age distributions (percent of population versus age of
vehicle) for each of the three counties, based on the 1972 age
distribution in each (4).
Base year populations for LDV, HDV and motorcycles in each
county.
Detailed information on these inputs are included in Appendix D.
The Vehicle Emissions Model determines the expected emissions of
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides from motor vehicles
in each county in 1975, 1977 and 1980. Vehicle emission data is input
to this model and, for this study, include the following (5):
26
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VEHICLE
DEMOGRAPHIC
DATA
VEHICLE POPULATION
~ MODEL
(PREDICTS POPULATION
DISTRIBUTIONS FOR
FUTURE YEARS.)
CONTROL MEASURE
DATA
VEHICLE MILES
TRAVELED
AVERAGE SPEED
EMISSION REDUCTIONS
X^BASELINE AIR
QUALITY AND
EMISSION
DATA
VEHICLE EMISSIONS
MODEL
(DETERMINES EXPECTED
EMISSIONS FROM
VEHICLES.)
ROLL BACK MODEL
(ESTIMATES AIR QUALITY
BASED ON COMPARISON
OF FUTURE AND PAST
EMISSIONS.)
VEHICULAR
EMISSION
DATA
STATIONARY
SOURCE
DATA
Figure 3-i. CONTROL MEASURE EVALUATION
METHODOLOGY
-------
LDV and HDV exhaust emission rates (California version)
LDV and HDV crankcase and evaporative emission factors (California
version)
Emission deterioration factors (California version)
Average speed correction factors
Base year projected Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) and average speed
values are also input, for LDV and HDV separately. The effects of parti-
cular control measures can be expressed as changes in these projected
values or as reductions in emission rates per vehicle. The Vehicle
Emissions Model then calculates the exhaust emission factors with the
following equation (5):
n+1
Z
enp = i=n-12 cip dipn . min sip
where,
e = emission factor in grams per vehicle mile for calendar
" year n and pollutant p,
c. = the 1975 Federal test procedure emission rate for pollutant
1p p (grams/mile) for the it^h model year, at low mileage
d. = the controlled vehicle pollutant p emission deterioration
factor for the i^ model year at calendar year n,
m. = the weighted annual travel 9f the i^. model year during
in calendar year n (The determination of this variable in-
volves the use of the vehicle model year distribution),
s. = the weighted speed adjustment factor for exhaust emission
1p. for pollutant p for the it^ model year vehicles.
Evaporation and crankcase emissions were determined using (5):
n+1
i=n-12 hi min
28
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where,
fn = the combined evaporative and crankcase hydrocarbon emission
factor for calendar year n,
h. = the combined evaporative and crankcase emission rate for
the ith model year,
m. = the weighted annual travel of the i^Jl model year during
calendar year n.
Total vehicle emissions for 1975, 1977 and 1980 are output from
this model. When these values are added to projections of emissions from
other mobile source categories (Diesel) trucks, aircraft, ships, etc.) and
stationary sources, projections can be obtained for emissions for each
county for the baseline case and for any combination of control measures.
The Rollback Model predicts the maximum air quality in 1975, 1977
and 1980, based on the observed maximum oxidant and carbon monoxide con-
centrations and annual arithmetic mean nitrogen dioxide concentration in
the respective base years. The relationship used for this prediction is
the proportional model as published by the Environmental Protection
Agency (6). This relationship can be expressed as follows:
where,
= maximum air quality reading the year 19xx
year = maxi'mum observed air quality in the base year
E-|gxx = total county emissions of the pollutant in 19xx
ER _ total county emissions of the pollutant in the
Base year - base
(Note: Natural background concentrations were assumed to be zero in the
three counties. )
29
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The projected emissions from the Vehicle Emissions Model and the
predicted air quality for each county were compared with the respective
allowable emissions and air quality standard for each pollutant to
determine the effectiveness of the control measure or combination of
measures being evaluated. The allowable emissions were calculated with
the proportional model as follows (6):
Base year ~
7-7, * 5- x 100 = percent emission reduction needed
HWBase year " D
where,
C = National air quality standard
B = Natural background concentration (assumed zero)
In this study, total oxidant concentration in each county was
assumed to be linearly related to the emissions of reactive hydrocarbons in
that county. Thus, the "percent emission reduction needed" was applied to
highly reactive hydrocarbons for the case when the maximum one-hour average
oxidant concentration was used in the above formula.
30
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3.2 ALTERNATIVE CONTROL MEASURES
The alternative control measures discussed in this section are
divided into three major types: Stationary Source Controls .(3.2.1),
Aircraft Controls (3.2.2), and Motor Vehicle Controls (3.2.3). Where it
is possible in the general case, measures in this section have been
assigned to receive "primary emphasis" or "minor emphasis" when they are
assessed for application in a specific county and the justification for
doing so has been presented.
3.2.1 Stationary Source Controls
Stationary source controls are applied to reactive hydrocarbon (RHC)
emissions from surface coatings, degreasing operations, dry cleaning, the
handling and transfer of gasoline and from open burning. As exhaust
emission control standards for motor vehicles become more stringent, the
proportional share of RHC emissions from these sources will increase.
This appendix provides source category descriptions and, where available,
cost estimates for controls on a per unit basis. The following measures
were considered in this study:
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control
Gasoline ModificationReid Vapor Pressure Change
Organic Surface Coating Substitution
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Degreaser Substitution
Burning Regulation
These measures are described briefly in the following text.
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control
This measure may be applied at two places in the marketing chain:
bulk terminals and service stations. These are discussed individually
below.
Bulk Terminals
One approach for controlling evaporative losses at the bulk terminal
is to use some type of vapor recovery or mechanical trap system. Vapor
recovery at bulk or wholesale terminals has been required in the Los
Angeles and San Francisco Bay areas. The control consists of floating
31
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roofs on storage tanks and a refrigeration-compression system together
with loading dock modifications to handle vapors displaced during the
filling of delivery trucks. This latter system is estimated to cost
roughly $250,000 per bulk terminal facility (3.). This cost is broken
down as $100,000 to $200,000 for the refrigeration-compression unit, and
$100,000 for loading dock modifications. Such facilities recover roughly
90 percent of the vapors escaping during loading operations.
Service Stations
Standard Oil Company of California has been experimenting with a
mechanical trap (vapor return) system to be used during the filling of
service station underground storage tanks (8). In such a system,
vapors displaced from the underground tanks are returned to the delivery
truck during the filling operation. The system as tested consists of a
"T" connection to the underground vapor line, valves, and a three-inch
diameter vapor return hose. Cost estimates for retrofitting service
stations with such a system varied from $900 to $2000 per station, with a
most probable figure of $1300 per station (9). This cost is almost
entirely due to labor costs incurred in excavation to gain access to the
underground line, T-connector fitting, tank purging, and subsequent re-
pair of the ground surface. In terms of efficiency, the tests revealed
that an approximate 94 percent vapor recovery is entirely feasible. EPA
emission factors for this operation in the absence of vapor return are
12 lbs/1000 gallon throughput (splash fill) and 7 lbs/1000 gallon through-
put (submerged fill).
Gasoline Modification - Reid Vapor Pressure Change
One method to reduce the evaporative losses from gasoline is to
lower the Reid Vapor Pressure standard at which gasoline may be sold.
The RVP value of a gasoline derives from a standard test designated
by the ASTM and serves as an indication of the volatility of the fuel.
It is used as a standard to prevent the sale of gasoline which is too
volatile during specific periods of the year. Lowering this RVP standard
thus reduces the volatility of gasoline even further and effectively re-
duces evaporative loss emissions.
32
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Organic Surface Coating Substitution
This category consists of reactive hydrocarbons emitted from the
application of protective and decorative surface coatings. .There are two
main emission categories:
a) Solvent evaporation with no change in chemical form
b) Solvent evaporation with a change in chemical form re-
sulting from heat or flame contact.
The main sources in these two categories .are architectural 'coating and
paint baking, respectively. Less reactive substitutes for these surface
coating compounds are currently being developed.
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Most dry cleaning is done with synthetic solvents, rated non-reactive
on the Los Angeles APCD reactivity scale. There are, however, a few large
dry cleaning plants that use reactive petroleum solvents. The use of
these petroleum solvents is apparently declining, but this decline could
be accelerated as a possible control measure.
Degreaser Substitution
This source category consists of reactive hydrocarbons emitted from
degreasing operations. Almost all hydrocarbon emissions from degreasing
come from three solvents: trichlorethylene (TCE), 1,1,1-trichlorethane .
(1,1,1-T), and perchlorethylene (PCE). There is currently a considerable
degree of uncertainty concerning the reactivities of these compounds.
According to the Los Angeles County APCD reactivity index, TCE is con-
sidered reactive while 1,1,1-T and PCE are considered non-reactive. This
classification of the solvents will be assumed for the purposes of the
present study. Substitution of the non-reactive solvents is a possible
control measure.
Open Burning
This control category consists of three sub-categories identified by
the California Air Resources Board in their implementation plan source in-
ventory. These are agricultural incineration, lumber industry incineration
and backyard incineration. Emissions from each of these can be signifi-
cantly reduced in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin.
33
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3.2.2 Aircraft Controls
Aircraft control measures can be divided into three categories: fuel
modifications, engine modifications, and modifications of ground operations.
The Environmental Protection Agency has studied each of these categories
to assess the potential for aircraft emission reduction. After a pre-
liminary analysis of fuel modification as a category of control measures,
it was determined that no significant reduction in Set II Pollutants
could be achieved in this manner (33). Fuels can be modified to reduce
emission of sulfur oxides and lead, but no significant reduction in
emission of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, or nitrogen oxides can be
attained this way.
Engine modifications were studied in greater detail by EPA. The
individual measures in this category are described in Table 3-1. Each
of these modifications can reduce the emissions of at least one of the
three polutants mentioned above by between 50 and 90 percent (1).
Table 3-2 lists the estimated development time, development cost, and
implementation cost for each of the engine modifications evaluated.
However, as the table indicates, only oneFuel drainage control--can
be implemented in time to be effective in 1975. This measure also has
the lowest estimated total cost. This measure does not, however, reduce
aircraft emissions at the airport, since fuel is not now drained from
planes during the Landing Takeoff (LTD) Cycle as specified by the EPA (33).
Few of the remaining modifications have a high probability of being
implementable by 1977. Cost is also a serious obstacle to implementation
of these measures. The estimated total cost of the least expensive
turbine engine modification is approximately 150 million dollars; the
least expensive piston engine modification is approximately 100 million.
In addition, engine modifications require that the engine be re-certified
with the Federal Aviation Administration (34) after the modification is
made; this requirement presents an additional obstacle to the retrofit
of in-use aircraft. In conclusion, because of engineering, economic, and
institutional constraints, the aircraft control measures listed as engine
modifications are not recommended for implementation in the San Joaquin
Valley for purposes of attaining the 1975 National Ambient Air Quality
Standards.
34
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TABLE 3-1. ENGINE MODIFICATIONS FOR EMISSION CONTROL
' FOR EXISTING AND FUTURE ENGINES
to
in
Control Measure
TURBINE ENGINES
Existing engines
1.
2.
3.
4.
Minor combustion
chamber redesign
Major combustion
chamber redesign
Description
Minor modification of combustion chamber and
fuel nozzle to achieve best state-of-art
emission performance.
Major modification of combustion chamber and
fuel nozzle incorporating advanced fuel
injection concepts (carburetion or prevapor-
ization).
Control Measure
Fuel drainage control Modify fuel supply system or fuel drainage
system to eliminate release of drained fuel
to environment.
Divided fuel supply
system
5. Hater Injection
6.
Modify compressor
air bleed rate
Future engines
7. Variable-geometry
combustion chamber
8.
Staged injection
combustor
Provide independent fuel supplies to subsets
of fuel nozzles to allow shutdown of one or
more subsets during low-power operation.
Install water injection system for short
duration use during maximum power (takeoff
and climb-out) operation.
Increase air bleed rate from compressor at
low-power operation to increase combustor
fuel-air ratio.
Use of variable airflow distribution to
provide independent control of combustion
zone fuel-air ratio.
Use of advanced combustor design concept
involving a series of combustion zones with
independently controlled fuel injection in
each, zone.
Source:Aircraff~Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
PISTON ENGINES
Existing engines
1.
Fuel-air ratio
control
2. Simple air Injection
3. Thermal reactors
4. Catalytic reactors
for HC and CO
control
5. Direct-flame
afterburner
6. Water injection
7. Positive crankcase
ventilation
8. Evaporative
emission controls
Future Engines
9. Engine redesign
Description
Limiting rich fuel-air ratios to only those
necessary for operational reliability.
Air injected at controlled rate into each
engine exhaust port.
Air Injection thermal reactor Installed in
place of, or downstream of, exhaust manifold.
Air injection catalytic reactor Installed 1n
exhaust system. Operation with lead-free or
low-lead fuel required.
Thermal reactor with injection of air and
additional fuel Installed in exhaust system.
Water Injected into intake manifold with
simultaneous reduction in fuel rate to provide
for cooler engine operation at leaner fuel-
air ratios.
Current PCV system used with automotive
engines applied to aircraft engines. Effec-
tive only in combination with one of preceding
control methods.
A group of control methods used singly or in
combination to reduce evaporative losses from
the fuel system. Control methods commonly
Include charcoal absorbers and vapor traps
In combination with relatively complex valving
and fuel flow systems.
Coordinated redesign of combustion chamber
geometry, compression ratio, fuel distribu-
tion system, spark and valve timing, fuel-air
ratio, and cylinder wall temperature to
minimize emissions while maintaining opera-
tional reliability. :
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TABLE 3-2.
TIME AND COSTS FOR MODIFICATION TO CURRENT
CIVIL AVIATION3 ENGINES
Control Method
Turbine engines
Minor combustion
chamber redesign
Major combustion
chamber redesign
Fuel drainage control
Divided fuel, supply
Water injection
Compressor air bleed
Piston engines
Simple air injection
Thermal reactor
Catalytic reactor
Direct-flame
afterburner
Water injection
Positive crankcase
ventilation
Evaporative emission
control
Development
Time,
Years
2.5
2.5
1
5
2.5
4
1.5
3
2.5
3
1.5
2
1.5
to 5
to 7.5
to 2.5
to 7.5
to 4
to 6.5
to 3
to 6
to 5
to 6
to 3
to 4
to 2.5
Development
Cost,
106 Dollars
37
74
1.5
84
25
90
9
25
22
25
9
4
4
Implementation
Cost,
10b Dollars
383
665
5.4
102
175
58
165
424
535
424
400
94
269
a"Civil aviation" includes air carrier and general aviation engines.
Source: Aircraft Emissions; Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
36
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Six methods of modifying ground operations at airports to reduce
aircraft emissions have been studied by EPA. These are as follows:
1. Increase engine speed during idle and taxi operations.
2. Increase engine speed and reduce number of engines
operating during idle and taxi.
3. Reduce idle operating time by controlling departure times
from gates.
4. Reduce taxi operating time by transporting passengers to
aircraft.
'
5. Reduce taxi operating time by towing aircraft between
runway and gate.
6. Reduce operating time of aircraft auxiliary power supply
by providing ground-based power supply.
These measures are to be considered for use in connection with
turbine aircraft only (1), with the possible exception of Number 3.
Each measure has the potential for reducing total hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide emissions at a large airport by amounts which vary between two
and 65 percent (1).
TABLE 3-3.
COSTS AND TIME FOR OPERATIONS CHANGES
AT A LARGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Control Method
1. Increase engine speed
2. Increase speed, reduce
number
3. Control gate departure
4. Transport passengers
5. Tow aircraft
6. Reduce APU operation
Time,
Years
0
0.3
5
2.5
1
0.5
Initial Cost,
106 Dollars
0
0
15
65
1.2
1.3
Annual Operating
Cost Change,3
10b Dollars
8.5
-0.7
-0.4
5.0
0.4
1.5
Minus sign indicates an estimated savings
SOURCE: Aircraft Emissions; Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
37
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Table 3-3 shows the estimated implementation time, initial cost,
and annual operating cost for each of the ground operations control
measures when applied at a major airport. Number 3 can be immediately
eliminated because of the development time required. As a result, the
remaining measures can be applied only at large commercial airports.,
rather than at both commercial and general aviation airports, since they
are effective only on turbine aircraft. Application of these measures
at military air bases has not been investigated by EPA, although the
following observations with regard to this possibility can be made:
1. The measures would not be as effective as they are at airports
because there is generally much less time spent per plane in the taxi-
idle mode of the LTD cycle at the air base.
2. The effectiveness of each measure would be much more difficult
to assess at military air bases because of the wide variation in time-
in -mode.
Measures 1, 3, 4, and 6 are, in general, relatively ineffective in
reducing aircraft emissions at major airports (33), and, as Table 3-3
indicates, they are more expensive than the remaining two measures.
EPA has determined that measure number 2 is the most cost effective
of all measures listed in both categories studiedengine modifications
and ground operations (33). Number 5 is more costly'and slightly more
effective than 2, it is less accurately quantifiable than 2 because of
the significant difference in the availability of data, and 5 is more
dependent on the geometry and layout of the particular airport. As a
result, ground operations measure number 2 has been selected for primary
emphasis as a potential control measure.
38
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3.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls
The motor vehicle control measures which are considered in this study
for possible implementation in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin are listed
in Table 3-4. These measures have been divided into two types: Vehicle-
Oriented Measures (3.2.3.1) and System-Oriented Measures (3.2.3.2).
Vehicle-Oriented Measures are aimed at reducing the emissions from
each vehicle. The division of these measures into "Primary Emphasis"
and "Minor Emphasis" categories is based on considerations of cost, hard-
ware availability, and scheduling. Gaseous fuel conversion is especially
unattractive for implementation in the San Joaquin Valley because of the
lack of large vehicle fleets in this air basin.
The System-Oriented Measures which will be given primary emphasis
in this study are those which are effective in reducing vehicle miles
traveled, rather than those which improve traffic flow. Traffic flow
improvements generally "spread out" the mobile emitters and may be
effective in reducing pollutant concentrations in cities where there is
traffic congestion, and, therefore, pollutant "hotspots". (Traffic flow
improvements of the magnitude which are feasible within the scheduling
and budgetary constraints of the transportation control strategy are, in
all apparent cases, very ineffective in increasing average vehicle speed
a sufficient amount to significantly reduce pollutant emission.) Since
traffic congestion is evidently not the problem in this air basin, the
actual use of the automobile (i.e., VMT) must be given primary attention,
with regard to System-Oriented Measures. Unfortunately, the same constraints
which prohibit systemwide improvements limit the choice of VMT controls.
39
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TABLE 3-4. MOTOR VEHICLE CONTROL
MEASURES CONSIDERED IN STUDY
VEHICLE-ORIENTED MEASURES (Emission Reduction)
Primary Emphasis:
Inspection/maintenance
Vacuum spark advance disconnect
Lean idle setting
Catalytic converters
Air bleed
Positive crankcase ventilation
Exhaust gas recirculation
Minor Emphasis:
Gaseous fuel conversion
Evaporative retrofit
SYSTEM-ORIENTED MEASURES
Primary Emphasis (VMT Reduction):
Reduce trip requirements
Public transit
Car pools
Vehicle free zones
Parking control
Exclusive bus/car pool lanes
Tools
Tax disincentives
Four-day work week schedule
Moratorium on traffic improvements
Gasoline rationing
Minor Emphasis (Traffic Flow Improvement):
Vehicle facility improvements
Ramp metering
Staggered work hours
40
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3.2.3.1 Vehicle - Oriented Measures
There are a number of control measures for reducing motor vehicle
hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen emissions. In this
section, each measure is defined and is accompanied by a brief discussion
of the technical and economic aspects of its implementation. The programs
to be described are as follows:
t Vehicle inspection/maintenance
Retrofit measures
Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect
Lean Idle Setting
Catalytic Converters
Air Bleed
Positive Crankcase Ventilation
Exhaust Gas Recirculation
These measures are the "Primary Emphasis" measures in this study.
The two "Minor Emphasis" measuresEvaporative Retrofit and Gaseous Fuel
Conversionare discussed at the end of this section.
Inspection/Maintenance - For a number of years, the state of California
has had a program requiring emission control to be inspected or installed
on used cars before they are registered by new owners. A Certificate of
Compliance from a Class A (licensed) service station is required to meet
this measure and to insure the proper idle setting, air/fuel ratio, and
ignition timing. The California Highway Patrol has also been administer-
ing roadside, spot inspections to check for safety as well as idle
emissions. Vehicles which fail the emissions test are required to visit
the Class A station. About 15 percent of the vehicle population is in-
spected by the CHP each year.
It has been found that a substantial emission reduction can be
achieved when the motor vehicle population is properly serviced. Vehicles
emitting three times their specified allowable rates have been identified
in the existing inspection program. The emission reduction potential that
could be obtained by identifying all vehicles which need servicing is
great, especially in a time when emission controls are becoming more
complex and prone to deterioration. A more rigorous inspection program
may be advisable.
41
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Inspection/maintenance measures are intended to reduce vehicular
emission through a program of mechanical and analytical inspection, fol-
lowed by a mandatory maintenance. Maintenance (tune up, repair, parts
replacement, etc.) will,' therefore, allow each vehicle to operate in a
significantly less polluting fashion.
Generally, maintenance requirements are based on the results of a
periodic idle emissions test or a loaded emissions .test.. By selecting
the appropriate percentage failure rate for vehicles tested, it is pos-
sible to obtain varying levels of effectiveness for the program.
Increasing the failure rate criteria results in higher emission reductions,
The idle emissions test is run by sampling exhaust emissions when
the vehicle is in the idle mode. The sample is analyzed to determine
pollutant emission levels. Maintenance is required if the vehicle exceeds
established emission limits. This procedure is easier and less expensive
to run than the loaded emissions test and can be done at most service
stations.
The loaded emissions test is conducted using a chassis dynamometer
and a trained technician. The nature of the test equipment and skill
required to run this test makes it both more time consuming and more
expensive than an idle test. However, the loaded inspection is a more
diagnostic test, and is effective in pinpointing defective engine and
emission control components. The vehicle is operated on the dynamometer
at different load modes that simulate various modes of normal operation.
The exhaust is sampled at each mode in the same way that it is sampled in
the idle emissions test. High cruise, low cruise, and idle, are three
modes that might be tested. Certain engine malfunctions can then be
traced by referring to a "truth chart" which serves as a maintenance aid.
With either test, criteria can be established so that a certain
percentage of vehicles will fail the initial inspection and be subject
to maintenance. Table 3-5 shows what average annual percent reductions
are to be expected in light duty vehicle exhaust emissions for each test
as a function of percent initial failure of the vehicle population (37).
The impact of inspection/maintenance on emissions is fairly
predictable, since the proposed program would be a mandatory one. Public
42
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opinion surveys indicate most people favor such a program. However, the
tendency of such a program is to be socially regressive because it is the
older cars that are the most vulnerable to maintenance. The economic
burden will, therefore, hit lower income people harder.
TABLE 3-5. EMISSION REDUCTIONS DUE TO
MANDATORY INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE
Percent Initial Failure Rate
Percent Emission Reduction
Hydrocarbons (loaded)
Hydrocarbons (idle)
Carbon monoxide (loaded)
Carbon monoxide (idle)
10
8
6
4
3
20
11
8
7
6
30
13
10
9
8
40
14
11
11
9
50
15
11
12
10
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
Retrofit Measures - Any device or system adjustment that can be added to
a motor vehicle, after it is sold, and which reduces emissions is
classified a retrofit. There are many emission control retrofits that
have been evaluated. The more successful and implementable devices are
discussed in this section. The reader is referred to two other documents
for a more in-depth discussion of these and other devices: "Control
Strategies for In-use Vehicles," an EPA document, and "Emission Control
of Used Cars," by the Technical Advisory Committee of the California Air
Resources Board.
Like the inspection/maintenance program, retrofit measures are likely
to impact older vehicles to a greater degree than newer vehicles. The
reduction effect of different retrofit options on the three major motor
vehicle pollutants is shown in Table 3-6, with the installation cost
for each option also indicated. It must be assumed that these retrofits
are coexistent with an inspection/maintenance program as the values shown
for percent reduction of each pollutant can be applied to maintained
vehicles only (38,39).
43
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TABLE 3-6. RETROFIT CONTROL MEASURES
Installed
Retrofit Option
Pre-controlled Vehicles
Lean idle air/ fuel ration $
adjustment and vacuum spark
advance disconnect
Oxidizing catalytic converter
and vacuum spark advance
disconnect
Air bleed to intake manifold
^Exhaust gas recirculation and
vacuum spark advance disconnect
Controlled vehicles
Oxidizing catalytic converter
Exhaust gas recirculation
Cost
20
195
60
35
175
50
Average Reduction per Vehicle
HC
25%
68%
21%
12%
50%
0%
CO
9%
63%
58%
31%
50%
0%
N0x
23%
48%
0%
48%
0%
40%
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
Each measure shown in the table is defined below with a brief description
of each one's technical and economic implications.
Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect - This modification to the distributor
involves changing cylinder combustion conditions in such a way that up to
a 50 percent reduction in hydrocarbons is possible. The durability of
such a system is very good. Fuel economy will deteriorate, and in some
vehicles this deterioration may be as much as 20 percent. Hotter running
engines is another factor which must be considered, with overheating in
hot weather and high exhaust valve wear distinct possibilities.
Lean Idle Setting - This is a measure which might increase fuel economy
as much as five percent. The cost of this modification is nominal ($3-$6),
and a mechanic with the right instrumentation can perform the setting
easily. The buildup of deposits in the carburetor is the only major
durability problem aside from the high probability of mechanic or owner
tampering due to the expected decrease in idle quality.
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter - Catalysts offer a substantial reduction
in carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons after the device has warmed up
sufficiently. The lowest levels of lead, phosphorous, and sulfur in the
currently available fuels will introduce a durability problem to the
44
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catalyst. If older cars are to be retrofitted with catalytic converters
they will have to be detuned considerably so they can run on no-lead
gasoline.
The operation of the catalytic principle involves the circulation
of exhaust gas over the heated bed of material that readily converts
hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide into water and carbon dioxide.
The installation of the catalyst should be relatively straight-
forward. It is estimated that the cost may be considerably lower than
that shown in the table when they are production items in 1975.
Air Bleed - This is a low cost, simple installation retrofit measure. If
it is well designed, it will reduce emissions at about the same rate as a
lean idle setting or leaner carburetor jets. There will be no problem
with durability. Driving performance will be reduced, however.
Positive Crankcase Ventilation - PCV has been incorporated on all new
cars in California since 1963 as one of the first emission control
measures. It essentially eliminates all of the emission losses from the
crankcase area. Air is vented through the crankcase and mixed with the
blowby gas. It is then recirculated into the intake manifold through the
variable orifice called the "PCV valve."
Exhaust Gas Recirculation - This measure is designed to reduce oxides of
nitrogen emissions substantially. Installation is somewhat difficult and
moderately costly. Durability is good provided low lead gasoline is used
and there are no engine malfunctions (e.g., misfire, flooding, or oil
burning). Otherwise, the system is liable to become plugged, requiring
a low cost repair. Driving performance could be severly hampered with
this system. Fuel economy also suffers.
Gaseous Fuel Conversion - Liquefield Petroleum Gas (LPG) has been used as
an automotive fuel for many years, usually because it provided an economic
advantage. LPG is available in limited quantities in urban areas across
the nation. About 300,000 LPG-powered vehicles are estimated to be in
operation at this time.
Natural gas is also used as a motor fuel and has greater capabilities
for reducing emissions than LPG. Natural gas is used in two forms:
45
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Compressed (CNG). Gaseous-fueled vehicles
are currently being operated experimentally throughout the country, mostly
using CNG.
Components for conversion to gaseous fuel operation are.produced by
several manufacturers. Some systems are more successful than others in
lowering emissions while maintaining acceptable vehicle driveability.
While gasoline-gaseous dual-fuel systems greatly increase the driving
range of the vehicle and provide a reserve fuel supply for emergencies,
they require compromises for either fuel from performance, fuel con-
sumption and emission standpoints. The degree of compromise of one fuel
over the other depends on the utilization of the fleet vehicle. The
operating ranges of vehicles fueled by LPG or LNG are comparable to
gasoline fueled vehicles, but CNG fueled vehicles are usually limited in
range to about 70 miles, although new tank designs have increased the
range to approximately 100 miles.
Unfortunately, there is almost no hope for implementation of this
measure in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin because of the lack of large
vehicle fleets.
Evaporative Retrofit - There are no retrofit devices available at present
to control evaporative hydrocarbon emissions from the fuel systems. How-
ever, the state has initiated a research and development program for such
a system. If a practical device is developed, approximately 20 percent
of the hydrocarbon emissions from pre-1971 automobiles could be eliminated
with its application. The CARB's evaluation program of the evaporative
loss controls should be completed by late 1973; if warranted, it will be
followed by a certification program. To implement a mandatory installation
program, additional legislation will be required. However, the benefits of
this control measure are significantly diminished by a one to two year
delay in implementation because of the normal replacement of older
vehicles with newer, controlled vehicles.
46
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3.2.3.2 System Oriented Measures
Based on the analysis of current data and project travel, it appears
that additional controls besides the vehicle-oriented measure may be
necessary in San Joaquin Valley Air Basin to achieve the air quality
standards established by law for 1975. The time period is too short to
effectively develop and implement desirable long-range planning objectives.
Thus, the choice of control measures available is limited to those which
are feasible in the remaining time period.
Among the system-oriented measures, however, there are positive as
well as negative alternatives. Positive alternatives are those which
either reduce trip requirements or provide attractive transportation
alternatives. Negative alternatives restrict movement without reduction
in travel requirements and increase the total cost of travel. As such,
they are less acceptable socially and politically and should be used only
as a last resort. If restrictive controls need to be imposed for a
while, priority should be given to measures which approach the following
criteria:
1. They should not reduce utility of transportation facilities for
which large sums of public funds have already been expended.
2. They should not require large new capital expenditures for
a limited time period.
3. They should be easy to dismantle when the need for them no
longer exists.
4. They should have minimum negative socio-economic impact.
The effectiveness and feasibility of various control measures depend
on the unique character of the area. The San Joaquin Valley, unlike the
older urban centers of the East Coast, has developed around the automobile
as the basic form of transportation. This has resulted in low density
residential development, dispersed economic and social activities, and
extremely diffuse pattern of travel. The central business districts (CBD's),
therefore, are relatively weak and employment is not concentrated in few
selected locations. The total dependence on automobile has led to extremely
high auto ownership and, until recently, almost complete neglect of public
transit. Auto ownership is approaching one vehicle per licensed driver.
47
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Public improvements providing for vehicle use have grown rapidly in the
San Joaquin Valley. New freeways have been built and existing streets have
been upgraded to provide for increasing travel demand. Low cost or free
parking has been provided throughout the urban areas. Consequently, there
is very little traffic congestion and no real parking problems. At
the same time, use of other modes of transportation has dwindled to less
than two percent of all person trips in urban areas where other alternatives
are available.
A number of more widely suggested control measures are discussed
below as they apply to the San Joaquin Valley. First, the possibility
of reducing VMT in the available time period is reviewed. Then the
advantages and drawbacks of traffic flow improvement programs are described.
Primary Emphasis (VMT Reduction)
The most direct way to reduce emissions from motor vehicles is to
reduce their use. The effectiveness of measures which reduce VMT are
potentially limited only by the amount of travel which is auto-captive
and essential. This general goal can be approached by measures which
reduce trip requirements, provide transportation alternatives, or establish
vehicle restraints. The use of vehicles cannot be significantly restrained
without providing some alternative means of transportation. A corollary
appears to be that significant mass transportation ridership increases do
not occur without some form of natural or artificial vehicle restraint.
Reduce Trip Requirements
As a general measure, there are no present means available to
effectively reduce trip requirements except for emergency closing of offices,
schools, etc., during an air pollution alert. Since trip generation is
built into life styles and land use patterns, it is not possible to dra-
matically alter the number or types of trips by 1975. Positive land use
policies could channel future development into concentrated nodes inter-
connected with mass transit and each containing a full range of closely
linked urban activities with walking the primary linkage. Such a land use
program included with the long-term planning objectives would not likely
have a substantial impact in the San Joaquin Valley until a later decade
of this century or beyond.
48
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Another possible approach to reducing trip requirements is the
substitution of communications for travel. Communications technology has
already replaced the need for travel in certain fields such as telephone and
telecommunications used by stock exchanges and computer installations.
These kinds of operations are spreading rapidly and may be expected, to
continue, but recent experience indicates that they will not result in a
substantial decrease in urban travel in the near term.
Public Transit
Since personal travel requirements cannot be diminished, some form
of transportation alternatives must be provided if vehicle use is to be
reduced, particularly if vehicle restraints are implemented. One form for
these alternatives is public transit.
Improvements to public transit systems include both extension and/or
upgrading of bus systems and provision of rapid transit on separate rights-
of-way. In conventional bus operation, improvements include level of
service (area of coverage, headway, etc.) betterment and amenity promotions
(air conditioning, bus stop shelters, etc.). Most of the urban areas
already have or are in the process of setting up transit districts to
expand public transit service. These could result in significant patronage
increases, but it is unlikely that such improvements would induce major
shifts of choice riders from auto to transit.
Car Pools
Greater efficiency (higher occupancy) in auto use through shared trip
making or car pools, could significantly reduce VMT and hence, automobile
emissions. Time and cost incentives or disincentives against driving alone
are the most effective means, of encouraging car pools.
Vehicle Free Zones
A number of measures have been identified which will reduce vehicle
use (VMT) by prohibiting or discouraging auto traffic from specified areas
or discouraging auto travel directly. For example, all vehicles could be
banned from a few blocks (pedestrian mall treatment, superblocks) or from
an extensive area of concentrated urban activity to provide vehicle free
zones. A number of cities in the study area already have such vehicle
free zones or are actively planning to implement them. Such zones
49
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obviously eliminate localized emission concentrations but since most
travel consists of getting to and from the zone rather than within it,
emission reductions in terms of regional requirements, are small.
Parking Control
This family of measures has the objective of reducing VMT by inducing
car pooling, and shifts to public transit through price increases and
reduced parking availability in major activity centers.
Exclusive bus/car pool lanes
This measure also is intended to reduce VMT by inducing car pooling
and making public transit more attractive through savings in time.
Tolls
The imposition of tolls on freeways is a potential method of regulating
road use. It is possible, however, that a high percentage of those priced
off the freeways by tolls may drive on surface streets rather than shifting
to car pools or transit. This could produce increased emissions as a
result of reduced travel speed and idling on surface streets. Tolls also
tend to be regressive since many of those priced off the roads will be
low income persons.
Tax Disincentives
A "pollution" tax could be charged in direct ratio to the emission
rate and mileage of each motor vehicle or to increase the tax on gasoline
(consumption varies directly to mileage). Schemes to reduce vehicle
mileage through gasoline pricing are not very effective and while imposed
indiscriminately on all segments of society, the largest impact is felt
by limited income groups.
Various taxes on automobiles have been proposed. Low fees are not
effective in reducing VMT and high fees are extremely regressive. Sub-
stantial registration fees on second or third family autos might provide
reductions in VMT and still avoid some of the more regressive elements of
this type of taxation.
Four-day Work Week Schedule
The four-day week would reduce VMT generated in work commute travel.
Like staggered work hours, this would be a useful measure if there were .
50
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a localized, temporal problem in employment concentration areas. However,
indications are that increased recreational and other non-work travel will
fully replace if not exceed the reductions in VMT resulting from decreased
work commuting. Thus, this measure does not respond well to hydrocarbon
emission problems.
Moratorium on Traffic Improvements
Several factors mitigate against schemes to reduce VMT by permitting
traffic service conditions to decay, thereby encouraging shift to transit
or discouraging auto trips from being made at all. Conventional transit
service elements operating on the same streets as autos would be negatively
impacted. Experience confirms that many motorists are determined to drive
in spite of seemingly intolerable levels of congestion. Added to the safety
compromise which would occur with a moratorium on traffic improvements is
the fact that VMT reduction due to shifts to transit could be outweighed
by pollution increases due to increased auto operations in the low speed,
high emission ranges.
Gasoline Rationing
Gasoline rationing is a direct restraint on vehicle mileage and,
therefore, emissions. There are a number of approaches to administrating
such a program including control at the source of gasoline production or
at the consumer level (World War II type rationing). This is the one
control measure which is highly quantifiable and which definitely would
reduce travel to a desired level. However, it is also socially regressive
and its legal status is unclear.
Minor EmphasisTraffic Flow Improvements
Another approach to reducing the pollution is to increase the average
operations speed for the entire system, and thereby reducing the amounts
of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide emitted.
Vehicle Facility Improvements
Measures to achieve emission reductions through improved vehicle
facilities fall in two categories: construction of new major traffic
facilities (freeways, expressways and major arterial linkages); and
operational improvements to existing streets and highways. The emission
51
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reductions are brought about by increases in vehicle speeds, reduced
idling, and a general shortening of trip times.
Major facility construction normally enables significant increases
in vehicle travel speed in the corridors affected but also tends to
activate latent travel demand. In the long run this reinforces auto
dependence and increases vehicle miles of travel. Over the short-range
time frame of primary concern in this study, the air quality impacts
of new traffic facilities can be assumed positive.
Operational improvements to existing streets and highways cover a
broad range of programs. These include freeway improvements such as
ramp metering and removal of bottlenecks; and surface street improve-
ments such as areawide signal system integration, intersection channel-
ization, minor widening of streets and intersection approaches, institution
of one-way street systems, and the like. Because they do not produce
dramatic shifts in accessibility, operational improvements generally do not
lead to activation of latent travel demand and their near-term impact
on emissions and air quality is assessed as positive but their specific
contribution to area wide emission reduction is small and difficult to
quantify. At best, the planned operational improvements in the San Joaquin
Valley can be expected to handle ever increasing amounts of travel without
decrease in the level of service.
Ramp Metering
Ramp metering is used to optimize the efficiency of traffic movement
in a freeway corridor. Metering also has potential utility for shutting
down the freeway for episode control, and as a means to provide preferential
entry for vehicles that have a higher utilization (car pools, buses).
Staggered Work Hours
Changes in work schedule by staggering work hours have been proposed
as a control measure in some cities as they tend to produce some flow
improvements by reducing commute period traffic congestion. This measure,
however, would produce only marginal reductions in emissions.
Staggered work hours do not decrease total daily VMT but simply
spread the time of VMT generation. Such a strategy is most applicable
when the problem is a short duration, localized concentration of
52
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pollutant, which results from temporal concentration of traffic flow.
High concentrations of carbon monoxide are most typical of this type of
problem. Staggered work hours, however, also tend to reduce the potential
for car pooling, a measure which relates well to hydrocarbon emission
reduction, since it tends to directly reduce VMT.
53
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3.3 THE CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCE BOARD (CARS) IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
The State of California Implementation Plan for achieving and
maintaining the National Air Quality Standards was submitted to the
Environmental Protection Agency in February 1972. The plan consists of
measures to control emissions from both mobile and stationary sources.
The CARB analysis shows that enforcement of these measures will result in
the attainment of Federal Air Quality Standards in the San Joaquin Valley
Air Basin by 1977. The following sections provide a review of the
California plan for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin. Sect. 3.3.1 is a
discussion of the CARB baseline emissions inventory, and Section 3.3.2
provides an examination of the CARB control strategy.
3.3.1 Baseline Emissions Inventory
Results
The base year for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin was chosen to be
1970. During this year the maximum hourly oxidant recorded was .21 ppm;
and the maximum 8 hour CO average was 15 ppm. Conforming to the conven-
tional proportional rollback method, the CARB determined that source
emissions of reactive hydrocarbon emissions must be reduced by 62 and CO
emissions by 40 percent to attain air quality standards in the basin.
The baseline emission inventory was quantified individually for each
county in the basin. The total basin inventory was then used in the devel-
opment of a basin-wide control strategy. The relative air contamination
generated by the major sources is illustrated in Figure 3-2. The absolute
values of the various source pollutant emissions are shown in Table 3-1.
Methodology
Base year (1970) air contaminants generated by motor vehicles were
estimated in 1970 by the ARB on the basis of total regional gas consumption
and vehicle emission factors (emissions per gallon). The estimated
quantity of each pollutant species emitted from vehicles of various types
and model years was determined by calculating the product of the fraction
of regional gas consumption attributable to the subject vehicle type and
the appropriate emission rate in grams per gallon.
54
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HIGHLY REACTIVE ORGANIC CASES
325 TPD
Other
Petroleum
Motor ,
Vehicles
Organic Solvent
Users
NITROGEN OXIDES
335
Other
CARBON MONOXIDE
2360 TPD
Other
Motor
Vehicles
Combustion
of Fuels
Petroleum
Industry
Aircraft
Agriculture
Motor
Vehicles
Figure 3-2. Percentage of Emissions from Major Sources
in San Joaquin Valley Air Basin, 1970
Source: California Air Resources Board
Projections of motor vehicle emissions in future years were
estimated utilizing procedures outlined in the "Motor Vehicle Emissions
Inventory 1970-1980" (79). The bases for the estimates are motor vehicle
population projections, vehicle model distribution, vehicle mileage, and
emission rates as determined by the 7-mode test procedure. The estimated
quantity of each contaminant emitted from vehicles of various types and
models is the product of the number of vehicles, the corresponding average
annual mileage, and the appropriate emission rate in grams per mile.
55
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TABLE 3-7. SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AIR BASIN ESTIMATED AVERAGE EMISSIONS
OF CONTAMINANTS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, 1970 (Tons per day)
Emission Source
Petroleum
Organic solvent users
Chemical, metallurgical,
mineral
Incineration
Combustion of fuels
Lumber industry
Agriculture
Motor vehicles
Aircraft
Ships and railroads
TOTAL
Organic
Reacti
High
15.4
17.3
5.1
1.1
7.2
268
10.4
325
Gases
vity
Total
121
83.0
.8
46.4
6.1
12.8
80.9
374
21.3
3.7
750
Oxides of
Nitrogen
76.9
5.0
34.1
2.5
3.3
198
9.9
4.9
335
Carbon
Monoxide
99.7
2.2
89.0
13.3
65.8
112
1870
107
5.3
2364
Source: California Air Resources Board
The baseline inventory for stationary sources in the California
CARB Implementation Plan derives fundamentally from the 1970 California
CARB inventory (67). This 1970 inventory, in turn, is based on joint
efforts of the CARB and the local APCD's in estimating stationary source
emissions. For each stationary source category, these emissions are cal-
culated by multiplying source activity levels by appropriate emission
factors. The activity levels are basically estimates of throughput
(e.g. in petroleum marketing), production (e.g. of a certain industry),
sales (e.g. of organic solvent), fuel consumption (e.g. in the residential-
commercial sector), and tonnage of wastes burned (e.g. in agriculture).
These estimates are obtained partially by survey, but more often by con-
tacting appropriate agencies, (e.g. Western Oil and Gas Association, U. S.
Bureau of Mines, agricultural associations, University Service Departments,
etc.). The emission factors are taken from the EPA's "Air Pollution
Emission Factors, Preliminary Edition," April 1971, or are as developed by
56
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local APCDs. Hydrocarbon reactivity factors in the CARB inventory are all
based on L. A. County APCD assumptions. Projection of the 1970 CARB sta-
tionary source inventory are made through 1975, 1977, and 1980 according
to the assumptions that each source grows in proportion to population
growth.
The method used by the CARB to calculate emissions due to aircraft
is essentially that recommended by EPA in AP - 42: Compilation of Air
Pollutant Emission Factors (78). The number of Landing-Takeoff (LTO)
cycles in each are correlated with the particular classes of aircraft,
and the appropriate emission factor recommended by EPA was used, according
to the following formula:
Aircraft _ Emission Number of engines Number of
emissions factor x per aircraft x LTO cycles
Reactive hydrocarbons were calculated as 50% of total hydrocarbon emissions
for both jet-driven and piston-driven aircraft.
Limitations of the Analysis
The CARB quantification of motor vehicle emissions is confronted with
the analytical difficulties that are inherent to the state-of-the-art
(discussed in Sections 4.1.2.3, 5.1.2.3, and 6.1.2.3). In addition, the
CARB procedure contains other questionable limiting assumptions. For
example, the emission rates applied in the analysis were based on the
State 7-mode test cycle. This test, and the sampling procedure used to
establish the emission rates, have been updated to the current Federal
Test Procedures which are acknowledged to yield more representative vehicle
emission rates. Another questionable approach utilized in the CARB inven-
tory determination involves the projection of vehicle populations by the
assumption their growth is in direct proportion to population increase.
Table 3-8 provides historical growth data for the various study areas of
the critical California air basins, and demonstrates the discrepancy be-
tween growth trends for population and total regional vehicle registrations.
Also included in the table are the TRW growth projections, based on the
multiple linear regression procedure (Appendix F), for motor vehicle
registrations in the various California air basin study regions. Another
questionable assumption made by the CARB is that total regional VMT may be
determined from regional annual vehicle mileage and vehicle population for
57
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TABLE 3-8. PERCENTAGE GROWTH IN POPULATION AND MOTOR VEHICLES
FOR THREE CALIFORNIA COUNTIES (1960 - 1980)
Region
San Joaquin
Fresno
Kern
1960
% Population
Growth
19.98
14.35
14.61
- 1972
% Motor Vehicle
Growth
Actual Calculated
43.03 42.40
41.30 38.10
39.93 40.92
1972 - 1980
% Population
Growth
12.61
7.75
8.52
{Projected)
Growth
TRW
21.73
11.26
17.66
the region-registered vehicles. Implicit in the assumption is the existence
of a contained community with all vehicle travel performed within its
boundaries. The limitation of this assumption is most often evident in small
regions where much through travel is prevalent.
Another ARB procedure subject to potential unreliability centers around
the conflicting use of two different methods in calculating motor vehicle
emission inventories, namely: the base year emissions which are based on gas
consumption figures, and the projected vehicle emissions which are based on
vehicle mileage distributions. The inconsistency contained in this approach
causes some difficulty in drawing valid comparisons between the base year
emission inventory and the projected emission inventories.
The least reliable aspect of the CARB motor vehicle emission inventory
concerns hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions. The ranking of hydrocarbon
reactivity is a controversial issue. For example, the CARB utilizes a
reactivity scale which designates diesel exhaust non-reactive, while the EPA
considers this exhaust 99 percent reactive. Evaporated gasoline, considered
50 percent reactive by the CARB, is 93 percent reactive according to the EPA.
Since the conventional oxidant rollback procedure centers on the reduction of
the reactive element of the hydrocarbon inventory, the uncertainty surround-
ing the reactivity scale is probably the most significant limitation mitigating
the calculation of a meaningful air contaminant inventory.
The most obvious distinction between the CARB relative baseline
emissions profile and that developed by TRW is the level of air pollution
arising from motor vehicle operations in the base year. The CARB selected
1970 as its base year, corresponding to a lower oxidant measurement for
its rollback determination. The CARB determined 83 percent of all reactive
58
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organic gases were generated by motor vehicles while TRW placed the figure
at 64 percent. The combination of earlier base year and higher relative
motor vehicle emissions provide the CARB with a substantial difference in
baseline control leverage via motor vehicle controls.
The baseline stationary source inventory of the California ARB Imple-
mentation Plan is derived from the 1970 California ARB inventory (67). It
therefore contains all of the limitations inherent in the 1970 inventory.
These include errors in estimating source usage and source emission factors.
Such errors might be considerable, but most of these figures (especially the
source usage figures o-tained from the appropriate responsible agencies),
should be fairly reliable. The only very unreliable parameters in the 1970
inventory are hydrocarbon reactivities. As discussed in more detail in
Sections 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2, hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions are
much in dispute, and values can change from 0% to 99% in comparing different
reactivity scales. The 1970 CARB inventory uses L.A. APCD reactivity
assumptions which differ considerably from recent EPA values by Altshuller.
The projection of the 1970 inventory to 1975, 1977, and 1980 may also
contain considerable error for certain sources. The CARB has assumed that
each type of emission will grow as population. However, certain sectors are
expanding much more rapidly than population while other sectors are expanding
slower or are contracting. Projection assumptions that are more oriented
toward growth in specific industries and/or sectors would be much more realistic.
It is believed (10) that a significant degree of error exists in the
CARS estimates for aircraft emissions, due to miscalculation. As a result,
the CARB is currently revising the aircraft emission inventory to correct
these errors. New and more complete data on aircraft operations, includ-
ing those at the numerous general aviation airports and at military air
bases, should be included in this revision, and recent EPA revisions to
emission factors published in AP-42 should be utilized. The use of the
reactivity factor should also be reconsidered, due to the EPA recommenda-
tion of 9Q% for both jet-driven and piston-driven aircraft.
Summary
It is evident there are several aspects of the CARB inventory based
on questionable information or procedures. Because of these limitations,
TRW has developed a separate emission inventory based on procedures which
59
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are acceptable to the EPA. Because of the numerous differences in pro-
cedures and base information utilized in the two approaches (TRW and CARB),
the utility of a lengthy and detailed review of the CARB implementation
plan would appear to be of limited value here, since only the analysis
performed by TRW will be considered meaningful. For this reason the CARB
strategy and its impact on baseline emissions is considered only briefly
in the following section.
3.3.2 CARB Strategy
The Plan and Results
The key elements of the California control strategy in the Plan for
the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin includes measures to reduce emissions
from both stationary and mobile sources. These measures include:
1. The State's current motor vehicle emission control program.
2. Vehicle emission inspection and maintenance.
3. Control of emissions related to the distribution and
marketing of petroleum products.
4. Control of the emissions from aircraft and ships.
5. Control of the emissions from the lumber industry's burning
processes.
6. Control of the emissions from open burning.
The estimated effects of the most current (April 25, 1973 revision)
control strategy on the baseline emission inventory (April 25, 1973
revision) is shown in Table 3-9. The impact of the strategy measures,
with respect to ambient air quality, has been estimated by the CARB as
portrayed in Figures 3-3, 3-4, and 3-5.
Limitations of the Control Strategy
The control strategy proposed for motor vehicles consists only of
an inspection and maintenance program. The CARB has claimed standard
emission reductions for this measure. Implementation will yield an
overall reduction of 2% of the CARB base year reactive hydrocarbon
emissions in 1975. These results are consistent with the TRW analysis.
The CARB stationary source control plan consists of three basic
60
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TABLE 3-9. EFFECTS OF CONTROL STRATEGY
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AIR BASIN
(Tons/Day)
coratoi omov
Stationary Sources"
Ealsalor, Reductions
Petroleuir
Organic Solvent Users
Ch-r.lcal
Metallurgical
Mineral
Ir.c'.ne.-atlor.
Combustion of Put It
Lur.t>er Industry
Agriculture
Projected Emissions (Stationary)
Mobile Sources (Unler Current rrograi»)3/
Em1a«:on fleltst'.ons
Inspection and Maintenance .
Otalvtlc Converter Retrofit
Retrofit Evaporation Control
NC» ExhBuJt h-trorit, HDV
Con/erslon to Caseous Fuel
Control of Aircraft ana Ships
Projected Emissions (Mobile)
Projected Emissions (Directly Emitted)
PhotochemlcAlly Generated Psrtleulnte Matt
Projected Controllable Emissions (Total)
A.llo-.<3blc Emissions
Emission Reductions Needed
Aobler.t Air Quality
1970
Projected
Standard
CAJfflOH MOBOCTE
1970
382'
382
1977
1977
2359
r
2359
1415
(B-»
15
9
1975
40?
_
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--
--
_
- 60
..
- 30
- 25
292
1288
.15
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.
- 56
1137
LU79
--
1479
L415
our Av
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1977
417
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- 25
302
818
-Ii8
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713
1015
--
1015
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I960
432
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317
555
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465
782
--
782
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i
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WTROCEN DIOXIBEi/
1970
122
122
214
214
336
336
350
(Al
.048
.05
1975
129
- 10
--
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- 5
114
133
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124
238
238
350
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nual A
1977
132
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117
97
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205
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205
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«.-pp
1960
137
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6si
w
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60
182
182
350
--
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1970
46
i
46
283
383
329
329
125
(1-
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.08
1975
49
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1977
50
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87
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125
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1960
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125
)
\J Control itr»t-gy bued on control of oxldts of nitrogen
2/ Control .tntegy bu«i on control of highly r»»ctlY» orgmnlc guei; proportlena rel»ti«ujhif WM
utuaed to ««i»t b«tv««o ardent oxidant levala and biibOy reactlw organic gu eaiiaiona.
i/ Include! Incrcu* in tBlialona du* to grovth.
i/ PriMrlly due to riper recovery ijntu for g»«oline narkettog operation*.
i/ Adjuited to reneet th* effecta which natural or accidental ph*nonan* uy h«n on w*i»nt leyvle,
* Calculated emissions ar« close to or less than
those required to meet national standards.
Source: California Air Resources Board
61
-------
350r
300
250
200
150
TOO
50
_ALLOWABLE_EMISS IONS
(125 TONS/DAY)
(1) CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM
(2) VEHICLE INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE
(3) AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
(4) ALL OTHER PROGRAMS
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 3.3. Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy
Oxidant Emission Controls for the San Joaquin Valley Region
Source: California Air Resources Board, April 18, 1973 (44)
62
-------
2400 Hi
2000
1600
C/1
z
o
1200
800
400
_ALLOWABLE_EMISSIONS
(1415 TONS/DAY)
1415
(1) CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM
(2) VEHICLE INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE
(3) AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
(4) ALL OTHER PROGRAMS
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 3-4. Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy
Carbon Monoxide Emission Controls for the San Joaquin Valley Region
Source: California Air Resources Board, April 18, 1973 (44)
63
-------
4001
350
rAu, LVJ MriLJL» L. L. I IX O O 1 VJ110 ^^^^ ^^^^ O C O
300
250
200
150
100
50
ALLOWABLEJMISSIONS
"(350 TONS/DAY)
I
1970
(1) CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM
(2) AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
(3) ALL OTHER PROGRAMS
I
I
I
I
1972
1978
1980
1974 1976
YEAR
Figure 3-5. Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy
Nitrogen Dioxide Emission Controls for the San Joaquin Valley Region
Source: California Air Resources Board, April 18, 1973 (44)
64
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types of measures:
(i-) Regulation of burning processes in the agriculture,
incineration, and lumber categories.
(ii-) Vapor control systems for petroleum marketing operations.
(iii-) A tightening (and extension) of "Rule-66" regulations
concerning organic solvent reactivity.
Calculating percentage emissions reductions due to elimination of
given percentages of certain burning processes is straightforward, and
if CARB plans for eliminating certain burning processes are carried out,
the projected percentage emission reductions would be reliable. How-
ever, some emission reductions have been claimed by the CARB for burning
process modification as well as burning process elimination. Depending .
on the reliability of emission factors for the modified process, these
reductions may not be certain and should be viewed with more caution
than reductions claimed from burning elimination.
The CARB plan for vapor control in petroleum marketing operations
(bulk stations, service station tanks, and auto tank filling), involves
some technical difficulties. However, a recent API report indicates
that such control is feasible and supports the emission reductions
claimed by the CARB. Assuming that this control measure can be implemented
according to schedule, the CARB reduction claims are realistic.
The least reliable part of the CARB stationary source control plan
involves the proposed controls for organic solvent users. As noted
earlier, there appeared to be some inconsistency in the CARB's reactivity
assumptions for organic solvents; regions controlled by "Rule-66" and
regions not fully controlled by "Rule-66" were both assigned 20% hydro-
carbon reactivity. For proposed future controls, the CARB has assumed
that a further 80% reduction in RHC could be obtained in most air basins
by tightening and extending Rule-66 regulations. What is even more
troublesome, is that the specific control measures to be used to attain
a further 80% reduction have not been presented. These factors make
the CARB organic solvent control strategy the least reliable part of the
CARB stationary source control plan.
The CARB has not recommended an aircraft emissions control strategy,
65
-------
but has assumed that the Federal burner can retrofit program for jet
aircraft will reduce total aircraft emissions by 95% in 1977. This is
not likely, according to EPA sources (43). Not all the.types of aircraft
which were in use during the base year will be retrofit, and the effec-
tiveness of the retrofit program for reducing hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide emissions is expected to be approximately 40% to 50% (reduction).
These reductions can be considered only for most Class 2 and Class 3
aircraft -- primarily Boeing 707s, 727s, 737s, and Douglas DC-8s and
DC-9s.
66
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4.0 STRATEGY FOR SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
In this section is discussed the air pollution control strategy
which has been developed for application in San Joaquin County. Section
4.1 presents the baseline data and includes the base year (1971) air
quality, emissions, and transportation data and projected emissions and
transportation data (without additional controls) to 1980. Section 4.2
describes how the proposed strategy was developed and provides estimates
of the effectiveness of each measure. Section 4.3 summarizes the strategy
and indicates the expected emission reductions due to each measure when
applied in San Joaquin County.
4.1 BASELINE DATA
For the purposes of this study, it has been assumed that the air qual-
ity in San Joaquin County is directly related to the emissions in San
Joaquin County and that atmospheric transport of air pollutants from
other areas does not significantly influence county air quality. This
appears to be a reasonable assumption, according to available data. This
data is presented in 4.1.1 and indicates that the principal pollutants in
this study -- hydrocarbons and oxidant -- obey the classical temporal re-
lationship (hydrocarbon concentrations peak between 6 AM and 9 AM and
oxidant peaks near 12 noon). If atmospheric transport were a significant
problem, it is likely that these peaks would occur at other times in the
day. Thus, emissions data is presented in Section 4.1.2 in the form of
an inventory for San Joaquin County, and transportation data in 4.1.3 is
presented for the county only.
4.1.1 Air Quality
Figure 4-1 shows the diurnal variations of total hydrocarbon and
total oxidant in Stockton on 5 October in the base year, 1971. The
maximum one-hour average oxidant concentration occurred between noon and
1 PM on this date. The maximum hydrocarbon concentration on this date
occurred between 6 AM and 7 AM. This relationship between hydrocarbon
and oxidant peaks is typical of areas having similar climate and
topography.
67
-------
12
Midnight
Figure 4-1 . Comparison of Total Oxidant and Total
Hydrocarbon Concentrations in Stockton (Hazelton
Street Monitoring Station) on 5 October 1971.
Notes: 1. All data shown are one-hour average concentrations.
2. The maximum one-hour average oxidant concentration
for Stockton in 1971 occurred on 5 October (.20 ppm)
Legend: Total Hydrocarbon
Total Oxidant
Source: San Joaquin County APCD
68
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Figure 4-2 shows the diurnal variation of carbon monoxide on the
dates in 1970, 1971 and 1972 when the maximum 8-hour averages for those
years occurred. The maximum for the base year, 1971, occurred on 2
November and was measured at the Stockton Hotel monitoring station. This
8-hour maximum had a value of 17 ppm. Peaks for each of the three CO
plots occurred generally during the periods of maximum daily traffic; that
is, from approximately 6 AM to 9 AM and from 4 PM to 8 PM. Atmospheric
inversions are common to the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin in the fall and
winter, and generally occur at night. The plots for these three dates
seem to indicate that an inversion is beginning in each case in the
evening, and that CO emissions are being trapped in the atmosphere over
Stockton.
Figure 4-3 shows the variation of oxidant and carbon monoxide, ex-
pressed as monthly averages of maximum daily one-hour averages, through
the year 1971 in Stockton. The figure indicates that oxidant maxima are
generally higher in the summer and early fall, and that carbon monoxide
maxima are higher in the fall and winter months. The characteristics of
these plots are due primarily to meteorological effects in the San Joaquin
Valley. Greater solar intensity in the summer and early fall months en-
courages the production of photochemical pollutants such as oxidant. On
the other hand, in the spring and summer, the atmospheric mixing height is
greater, and wind is slightly greater in average speed (average wind speed
is usually six to ten mph), more regular in daily occurrence, and almost
always flows in the prevailing direction (approximately northwest). In
the fall and winter, however, the mixing height is lower, nocturnal inver-
sions are frequent and lengthier, and there is little net wind flow; that
is, although average winter wind speeds may not be much lower than average
summer wind speeds, there are frequent periods when the wind is changing
direction, and the atmosphere is relatively still. The result of these
conditions is that heavy buildup of emitted pollutants is more likely in
the fall and winter, as the data plotted for carbon monoxide indicates.
69
-------
30
26
22
18
Q.
Q.
ID
»->
C
O)
o
c
O
O
O
O
14
10
I
12
Midnight
4
am
8
am
12
Noon
4
pm
8
pm
Figure 4-2 . Diurnal Variation of One-Hour Average
Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in Stockton on Dates of
Maximum Eight-Hour Average Concentration for Each Year.
25 Oct.
1972
(Hazelton
Street)
2 Nov.
1971
(Stockton
Hotel)
20 Nov.
1970
tockton
Hotel)
11
pm
Source: San Joaquin County APCD
70
-------
.15-,
Q.
Q.
C
US
X3
I
X
o
.10-
/ \
M
Figure 4-3 . Monthly Averages of Maximum Hourly Averages
for Total Oxidant and Carbon Monoxide in Stockton in 1971,
Notes: Oxidant was measured at the Hazel ton Street Station.
Carbon monoxide was measured at the Stockton Hotel.
-15
-10 I
QJ
X
o
c
o
c.
o
- s-e
(O
Legend:
Total Oxidant
Carbon Monoxide
Source: California Air Resources Board
71
-------
4.1.2 Emission Inventory
Table 4-1 presents the baseline emission inventory for San Joaquin
County. Average tons per day emissions are given for total hydrocarbons
(THC), reactive hydrocarbons (RHC), nitrogen oxides (NOX), and carbon
monoxide (CO). Subdivisions are made according to source class, (stationary,
aircraft, and motor vehicle), and within source class according to specific
source type.
The baseline consists of the base year, (1971), and projections
through 1975, 1977, and 1980 for a "nominal control strategy." An
unambiguous definition of "nominal control strategy" is not readily
apparent; control regulations are in a state of rapid flux. The decision
as to what controls enter the baseline inventory is thus somewhat arbitrary.
The important point in constructing the baseline is to carefully delineate
the assumed, nominal controls. In the present study, the baseline case
assumes the following control strategy:
a. For stationary sources, the baseline control is the degree
of control existing in the base year, (1971).
b. For aircraft, the baseline is the present federal control
program, (burner-can retrofit and emission standards for
future new engines).
c. For heavy duty motor vehicles and diesels, the baseline
consists of the present federal control program. Motorcycles
have no controls. For light duty vehicles, the present
California/Federal new car controls and the present California
ARB retrofit program (exhaust devices for 1966-70 vehicles),
are assumed.
To emphasize the relative significance of the two or three major
sources of air pollution in San Joaquin County, pie charts have been
constructed for the 1971 base year inventory. Figure 4-4 presents these
charts, giving percent of base year emissions attributable to each source
category. Figure4 -4 indicates that for each pollutant, motor vehicles
(light duty, heavy duty, diesels, and motorcycles) were the major
contributors in 1971. Other significant sources of RHC were petroleum
marketing and organic solvent use. Fuel combustion in the residential-
commercial sector, is a significant contributor of NOX.
Table 4-2 gives a more detailed breakdown of relative source emissions
in the base year. It is evident that light duty vehicles, (LDMV), account
72
-------
TABLE 4-1. SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977 and 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents :
Surface Coating
'Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential , Commer-
cial , and Industrial
Other:
Chemical > Metallurgi-
cal, Mineral, Lumber,
and Petroleum Prod.
Subtotal Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycle',
Total
1971
THC
6.8
3.0
3.2
8.8
4.0
1.5
0.7
0.2
28.2
0.08
29.9
2.6
1.1
0.8
62.7
RHC
6.3
0.6
0.6
1.7
0.5
0.2
-
.
9.9
0.07
24.9
2.2
1.1
0.7
38.9
NOX
0.4
-
-
-
0.3
0.1
6.8
.
7.6
0.06
27.2
2.7
11.5
-
49.1
CO
-
-
-
-
7
2
1
2
12
1.9
174
15
7
3
213
1975
THC
7.8
3.2
3.6
9.3
4.2
1.7
0.7
0.2
30.7
0.11
20.4
3.1
1.4
1.0
56.7
RHC
7.2
0.6
0.7
1.9
0.5
0.2
-
.
11.1
0.10
16.7
2.5
1.4
0.9
32.7
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.3
0.1
7.2
.
8.1
0.08
24.5
3.4
14.1
-
50.2
CO
-
-
-
-
7
3
1
2
12
2.5
124
19
9
4
171
1977
THC
8.3
3.3
3.8
9.6
4.4
1.8
0.8
0.2
32.2
0.13
15.8
3.1
1.5
1.1
53.8
RHC
7.7
0.7
0.8
1.9
0.5
0.2
-
.
11.8
0.12
12.7
2.5
1.5
1.0
28.7
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.3
0.1
7.4
.
8.3
0.09
19.7
3.4
14.5
-
46.0
CO
-
-
-
-
8
3
1
2
14
2.8
94
21
8
4
144
1980
THC
9.1
3.4
4.1
10.1
4.6
2.0
0.8
0.2
34.3
0.12
10.1
2.9
1.4
1.4
50.2
RHC
8.3
0.7
0.8
2.0
0.6
0.2
-
_
12.6
0.11
7.9
2.4
1.4
1.3
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.4
0.1
7.8
_
8.8
0.10
13.4
3.2
13.7
-
25.7 39.2
CO
-
-
-
-
8
3
1
2
14
2.9
57
24
7
5
110
-si
co
-------
Petroleum Marketing, 16.2%
Organic Solvent Users, 7.4
Other, 2%
Motor Vehicles, 75.5%
Incineration, 3.3%
Other, 3.2% .
Motor Vehicles, 93.5%
Reactive Hydrocarbons
38.9 tons/day
Carbon Monoxide
213 tons/day
Fuel Combustion, 13.1
Other, 1.8%
Motor Vehicles, 84.4%
Figure 4-4.
Nitrogen Oxides
49.1 tons/day
Percentage of Emissions from Major Source Categories in
San Joaquin County in 1971
74
-------
TABLE 4-2. RELATIVE EMISSIONS BY MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORIES
IN SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY IN 1971
(Indicated as % of Total Emission of Reactive Hydrocarbon, Carbon Monoxide,
and Nitrogen Oxides)
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvent Users
Surface coating
Dry cleaning and degreasing
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion
Remainder (metal lugrical and
lumber industries)
Subtotal - Stationary Sources
Aircraft
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Gasoline powered
Diesel powered
Motorcycles
Subtotal - Mobile Sources
TOTAL
RHC
16.2
1.5
1.5
4.4
1.3
0.5
0
0
25.4
0.2
64.1
5.7
2.8
1.8
74.6
100.0
CO
0
0
0
0
3.3
0.9
0.5
0.9
5.6
0.9
81.7
7.1
3.3
1.4
94,4
100.0
NOX
0.8
0
0
0
0.6
0.2
13.8
0
15.5
0.1
55.5
5.5
23.4
0
84.5
100.0
75
-------
for the largest part of motor vehicle emissions, and that "other" consti-
tutes the most significant part of organic solvent emissions.
Table 4-1 indicates that the relative importance of various sources
changes considerably in the 1970's under the assumed baseline controls.
The new car and retrofit control programs greatly reduce emissions from
LDMV's. For this decade, the present Federal control strategy essentially
just "holds the line" on aircraft, HDMV, and diesel emissions. With no
further control assumed in the baseline, stationary source emissions con-
tinue to expand as activity in the region grows.
The specific assumptions and calculations used to construct the
baseline inventory are presented in Sections 4.1.2.1, 4.1.2.2, and 4.1.2.3
below. These deal with the stationary source, aircraft, and motor vehicle
source classes respectively. They present the details on base year data,
reactivity assumptions, nominal contro.ls, and projection techniques. The
limitations of the assumptions and analysis are also thoroughly discussed.
4.1.2.1 Stationary Sources
Baseline Stationary Source Inventory
The base year, San Joaquin County, stationary source inventory for
THC, NO. and CO is derived from the 1970 California ARB inventory for
A
stationary sources in Kern County, (40). Projections are made from the
1970 ARB inventory to the base year, 1971. The projection techniques
are discussed below. Modifications have been made in the agricultural
and lumber burning categories to reflect the effect of burn-no burn
regulations, (assumed 90% effective on days when air quality standard
violations occur).
Table 4.3 presents the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions used in
the stationary source inventory. For each stationary source except
petroleum marketing, 1970 ARB assumptions on hydrocarbon reactivity are
used. These in turn, are based on L.A. County APCD reactivity figures.
According to recent EPA specifications (43), petroleum marketing emissions
were taken as 93% reactive, (whereas the ARB uses a 45% reactivity).
Hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions are very critical to oxidant control
strategies. Unfortunately, they are among the least reliable values used
here. The reactivity assumptions will be discussed in more detail in the
76
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next section, dealing with limitations of the assumptions and analysis.
Table 4-3. Reactivity Assumptions For Stationary Sources
Stationary Source
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Burning:
Incineration
Agriculture
Lumber
Other:
Reactivity
93%
20%
20%
20%
20%
12%
10%
10%
0%
Reference
EPA
1970 ARB (L.A. APCD)
To complete the baseline stationary source inventory, the 1971
inventory is projected to 1975, 1977, and 1980 under the basic assumption
that the degree of emission control existing in 1971 is preserved.
These 1971 baseline controls are outlined in Table 4-5. The effects of
these controls are as calculated by the California ARB with one exception.
It is assumed here that burn-no burn regulations are 90% effective in
limiting emissions on days when air quality standard violations occur,
(no allowance for this is made by the ARB).
The growth rate assumptions in the baseline inventory varied from
source to source. They are summarized in Table 4-4. For most sources
projected growth was assumed proportional to population growth. For
certain industries which are expanding at rates significantly different
from population growth rates, emissions were projected according to
expected growth in constant dollar earnings for those industries. The
choice of constant dollar earnings as a growth indicator was arbitrary.
Emissions for these industries could also have been taken as proportional
to production. However, production type projections make no allowance
for technological improvements. Constant dollar earnings grow more
slowly than production and thus have the right sign to allow for techno-
logical process changes. A third type of assumption was used for
77
-------
Table 4-4. Growth Assumptions for Stationary
Source Emissions
Source Growth Assumption
Petroleum Marketing Growth according to projected gasoline
sales, (3).
Organic Solvents
Surface Coating Growth as population (4)
Dry Cleaning Growth as population (4)
Degreasing Growth as manufacturing (1)
Other Growth as population (4)
Incineration Growth as population (4)
Agricultural Burning Growth as earnings (1)
Fuel Comb. -- Res., 'Growth as population (4)
Com., & Ind.
Other: Min., Chem., Growth as industry specific earnings (1)
Lub., Mett. & Pet.
1. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Population and Economic Activity in the United
States and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, July, 1972.
2. Personal communications with refinery representatives and L.A. County
APCD Official.
3. TRW Regression Model.
4. Population Research Unit, Department of Finance, Provisional
Projections of California Counties to 2000, September 15, 1971.
78
-------
petroleum marketing emissions. Growth was taken as proportional to
growth in gallons sold. The technical aspects of the problem indicate
that, for a given degree of control, this.should be a very realistic
assumption.
Table 4-5. Baseline Stationary Source Controls
of HC, RHC, CO, and NO for San
Joaquin County x
Source
Incineration
Agricultural Burning
Lumber Burning
Control
No backyard burning.
restrictions.
Other open burning
Burn-no burn regulations.*
Burn-no burn regulations of certain
types of lumber burning.*
* It is assumed that burn-no burn regulations are 90% effective in
limiting emissions on days when air quality standard violations
occur. All of agricultural burning and about 1/2 of lumber burning
is covered by burn-no burn rules.
Limitations of the Analysis
Since the 1970 California ARB inventory served as the foundation
for the stationary source 1971 base year emission estimates in this
study, the results presented here are subject to any limitations of that
inventory. These limitations concern the approximations inherent in
emission factors, source usage data, and source number estimates. There
is insufficient time in this study to review in detail all of these
approximations. Suffice it to note that for THC, NOX, and CO emissions
from stationary sources, none of the ARB inventory figures deviated way
out of line from what would be expected by comparison with other regions,
and no major inconsistencies appeared.
The least reliable aspects of the base year and projected baseline
stationary source inventories are the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions.
Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely complex and difficult issue.
79
-------
Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked In reactivity according to the percent
of the mixture that can possibly react, or alternatively, according to
some scale which assigns weights to individual compounds. This ranking
can be based on HC consumption rate, N0? formation rate, ozone levels,
or eye irritation production. The ranking depends on the time allowed
for reactions to occur as well as on ratios of the input reactants (HC
and NO).
A
As was noted in Table 4-3, the present study has used the 1970
California ARB emission inventory reactivity assumptions for all stationary
sources except petroleum marketing. For petroleum marketing, (as well as
mobile sources), recent EPA reactivity results were employed. The ARB
reactivity scale is founded upon Los Angeles County APCD smog chamber
experiments. The EPA scale is based on experiments and conclusions by
Altshuller. These two scales yield very different estimates of reactivity.
For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive according to the ARB,
is 99% reactive according to the EPA. Evaporated gasoline, considered 45%
reactive by the ARB, is 93% reactive according to the EPA. It is a
troublesome inconsistency in this study that ARB estimates are used for
all but one stationary source, (yielding an average reactivity of less
than 20% for these sources), while EPA assumptions are used for petroleum
marketing, (93% reactivity), and mobile sources (all of high reactivity).
This has been done, however, so as to include the most recent data (EPA
reactivity figures), even though corresponding data were unavailable for
most stationary sources.
An illustration of how confusing and arbitrary reactivity assumptions
can be is provided by past inconsistencies in the treatment of organic
solvent reactivity. In the 1970 ARB inventory and the original California
Implementation Plan (40), the ARB assumed a 20% reactivity for each major
class of solvent use (surface coating, dry cleaning, degreasing, and
"other") and for each county in the San Francisco, Sacramento, and San
Joaquin regional areas. This reactivity was based,on L.A. County APCD
estimates for "post-rule 66" emissions. However, although San Francisco
had implemented such a rule by 1970, certain other counties had not.
Thus, 20% reactivity was used whether or not a county had adopted Rule
66. Fortunately, this may not be an extremely bad assumption.
80
-------
For surface coatings, meeting Rule 66 for the Los Angeles and San Francisco
regions has meant, in practice, that it is met for other California regions,
(nearly all surface coatings supplied to these regions are the same as
supplied to Los Angeles and San Francisco) (76). Reactivities of other
organic solvents should also be somewhat uniform throughout California.
The projected growth assumptions made here are also subject to some
question. Certain stationary source emissions were assumed to grow as
population, others were assumed to grow as industry specific earnings,
and petroleum marketing emissions were assumed to grow as gasoline sales.
None of these is likely to be exactly right. However, petroleum market-
ing is the dominant stationary source for the most significant pollutant,
(RHC), and the growth assumption (as sales) for that source should be
fairly accurate. Other growth assumptions, though less exact, apply to
less significant sources, and control strategy conclusions should be
insensitive to errors in those assumptions.
81
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4.1.2,2 Aircraft
Table 4-6 summarizes aircraft emissions in San Joaquin County for
the base year 1971 and projected emission levels for 1975, 1977, and
1980. Emissions are divided into two categories -- commercial air carrier
and non-commercial aviation. The latter includes general aviation, air
taxi, and military operations at civilian airports. There are no military
air bases in the county. Total emissions of hydrocarbons are shown to
increase in 1975 and 1977 but decrease slightly in 1980. Emissions of
CO and NO increase in every projected year.
/\
TABLE 4-6. AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS IN SAN JOAQUIN
COUNTY BY OPERATIONS TYPE
Commercial
Air Carrier -
Non-Conmercial
Aviation(a)
Total Emissions
Total Hydrocarbons
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.02 0.03 0.04 0.03
0.06 0.08 0.09 0.09
.08 .11 .13 .12
Carbon Monoxide
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.10 0.10 0.11 0.14
1.83 2.40 2.65 2.79
1.93 2.50 2.76 2.93
Nitrogen Oxides
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.05 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
.06 .08 .09 .10
'a'Includes general aviation, air taxi, and military operations at civilian airports.
Reactive hydrocarbons are estimated to comprise 90% of total hydro-
carbons emitted by aircraft (both turbine-powered and piston-powered)
and are as shown in Table
TABLE 4-7. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM AIRCRAFT IN
SAN. JOAQUIN COUNTY
Emissions
(tons/day)
1971
0.07
1975
0.10
1977
0.12
1980
0.11
82
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The values in Table 4-7 were developed with the use of aircraft
operations data (both historical and projected) published by the Federal
Aviation Administration. The operations data was translated into emission
estimates with the use of emission factors published by the EPA. These
data and calculations are discussed in detail in Appendix C.
The analysis and prediction of aircraft emissions is limited in two
important areas. The first involves the projection of aircraft activity
up to ten years in the future. There are normally significant errors in
such predictions, due to unforeseeable fluctuations in the economy and the
labor market. Furthermore, national projections were used in this study,
and these may not be completely applicable to San Joaquin County.
The second limitation of the analysis involves the use of the air-
craft emission factors. These factors were derived by EPA from test data
describing the emission rates of particular types of aircraft engines at
thrust settings typical of each mode of the Landing Takeoff (LTD) Cycle.
In cases where the average time-in-mode for each aircraft engine type is
known for an airport, this data can be used directly to estimate yearly
emissions. Unfortunately, the time-in-mode is not known for any airport
in this study. Anticipating such situations, EPA assumed a particular set
of times-in-mode as typical of the worst-case condition at a large metro-
politan airport and assumed an engine type typical of each aircraft
class -- jumbo jet, long-range jet, medium-range jet, etc. Emission factors
were then calculated as an emission rate per LTD for each class. Although
this is the best one can do considering the poor availability of data, this
method has several inherent weaknesses:
1. The worst-case time-in-mode is not truly representative of the
yearly average operation cycles at any airport.
2. The worst-case time-in-mode is not typical of most airports in
San Joaquin County; in fact, no airport in the county can be
truly labeled a large metropolitan airport.
3. Although the engine types chosen as typical of particular
aircraft classes may be used on the majority of craft within
the class, the actual emission rates can vary significantly,
just as in the case of motor vehicles, both within the engine
type chosen for each class and between this engine type and
others used on similar aircraft in the class.
83
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4.1.2.3 Motor Vehicles
Motor vehicles constitute the most substantial source of air contami-
nants in San Joaquin County. As such, the development and assessment of
transportation control plans depends heavily on the ability to quantify
air pollutants arising from motor vehicle operations. The first section
provides a discussion of the motor vehicle baseline emission inventory,
quantified for the base year and projected years, under the applicable
baseline control conditions. The second section is a discussion of
limitations and constraints inherent in the current state-of-the-art for
motor vehicle emission inventory determination.
Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light-duty
vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline-powered vehicles, heavy-duty diesel vehicles,
and motorcycles. Emissions from these vehicle types were estimated by
determining the annual mileage by model distribution of the region's
vehicle population, the overall mileage and average speed of vehicles
in the region, and then applying appropriate emission and reactivity
factors which are attributable to the various vehicle age classifications.
Characterization of the San Joaquin County vehicle populations into
the pertinent classes was accomplished by manipulation of data obtained
from the State Department of Motor Vehicles, the California Highway Patrol,
the State Air Resources Board, and the Division of Highways. Hydrocarbon,
carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides emission factors were obtained from
reference (45) and from direct communication with the Environmental
Protection Agency, Region IX Office.
The quantification of reactive hydrocarbons assumes foremost importance
in the total emission inventory, and in the development of prospective
pollution control plans. It is assumed there is a one-to-one relationship
between the quantity of reactive hydrocarbon emitted to the atmosphere
and atmospheric oxidant concentration. The required 60% oxidant rollback
being sought for San Joaquin County is accomplished by a 60% rollback in
reactive hydrocarbon emissions.
84
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The ranking of hydrocarbon reactivity is a controversial issue, and
has been the subject of several studies, which when compared, differ
widely in their resultant conclusions. In resolving the difficulties
presented in selecting reactivity factor for this study, TRW has provided
with guidelines from the Environmental Protection Agency. The reactivity
values, in terms of the emitter type, are as follows:
gasoline evaporative emissions
(for all vehicles)
light-duty vehicle exhaust
heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
exhaust
heavy-duty diesel vehicle
exhaust
,93
,77
.79
.99
.96
.86
motorcycles (2-stroke)
motorcycles (4-stroke)
The numerical calculations required for estimation of motor vehicle
emission are carried out with the use of a computer program. The method-
ology for these calculations is discussed in Appendix A.
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates of reactive hydrocarbons
are shown in Table 4-8.
TABLE 4-8
BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE
REACTIVE HYDROCARBONS (RHC) EMISSIONS
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
Type of Vehicle
1971
1975
1977
1980
(Base Year)
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel )
Motorcycle (2-Stroke)
Motorcycle (4-Stroke)
Total
% Reduction
(Fraction of Base Year)
24.9
2.2
1.1
0.5
0.2
28.9
16.7
2.5
1.4
0.6
0.3
21.5
25.61
12.7
2.5
1.5
0.7
0.3
17.7
38.75
7.9
2.4
1.4
0.9
0.4
13.0
55.02
85
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Due to federal automobile standards imposed in 1975, and specific vehicle
controls required under the California Auto Emission Standards, vehicle
emissions are expected to decrease in future years. By 1975, motor
vehicle reactive hydrocarbon emissions in San Joaquin County will have
decreased by 26% and by 1980, the expected reduction is 55%. Since
motor vehicle emissions constitute the main source of air pollution
it appears some additional vehicle controls will be required to attain
the total 60% emission rollback, and the 1975 Federal Air Quality
Standards. While the enforcement of 1975 Federal vehicle emission
standards will result in substantial reductions of atmospheric
pollution, the full benefit of this control is mitigated by the growth
of the vehicle population and the associated increase in total VMT.
Projections for motor vehicle registrations in future years were made,
utilizing a linear multiple regression analysis, (see Appendix ). In
this mathematical procedure, vehicle registration is determined by its
relationship to socio-economic variables (population and per capita
income) for which future growth has already been analyzed by other
reliable methods. Projections for daily vehicle miles driven in
San Joaquin County were available from transportation studies (46).
Figure 4-5 shows the projections for light and heavy duty motor vehicles
and for light and heavy duty vehicle miles traveled in San Joaquin
County. The projections, devised independently, show very similar
trends. Due to substantial growth rates of 56% in vehicle VMT, and
27% in vehicle registration, from the base year to 1980, total vehicle
emission reduction goasl are more difficult to attain.
Another factor mitigating the control of motor vehicle emissions
is the fact that heavy duty vehicles, and particularly motorcycles,
are not controlled to the same degree as light duty vehicles. From
Figure 4-6 it can be seen that there is a substantial shift in the relative
contribution of the various vehicle types to the degradation of air
quality in future years. For example, motorcycle emissions in 1972
constituted 2.4% of all motor vehicle emissions in the San Joaquin
County, while by 1980, they are expected (with present strategy control
plans) to account for 10% of all motor vehicle reactive hydrocarbon
emissions. The increasing prominence of the motorcycle in the overall
86
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200,000
CO
UJ
a:
LU
Q
UJ
a:
LLJ
I
CO
t I
CO
UJ
o;
CO
150,000
100,000
50,000
LDV (REGISTRATIONS)
LDV = LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
HDV = HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES
HDV (VMT)
HDV (REGISTRATIONS)
H 1 1 1 I
1971
1975
1977
1980
a: a
a ^
t/>
oo (u
LU O
I I C
z o
Figure 4-5. Projected VMT and Vehicle Registrations
for San Joaquin County
87
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3 LDV
D HDGV
HDDV
V777777m Motorcycles
UUflM (2 Stroke)
Motorcycles
(4 Stroke)
|
IS)
o
30 -
25-
20--
15--
10-
5--
0
BBB
1971
1975
1977
1980
Figure 4-6. Relative Baseline Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
for the Vehicle Types, San Joaquin County
-------
projected pollution problem is enhanced further by the rapid growth rate
(57% by 1980) expected for this vehicle type (see Figure ).
Figure 4-7 shows the relative hydrocarbon emission control trends
expected between the various vehicle types. It can be seen that
motorcycles are the heaviest polluters per mile of travel, and that their
emissions are uncontrolled in the baseline projections. The effect of
exhaust control deterioration for older model vehicles, and traffic flow
patterns (speed adjustment factor) in the overall vehicle emission totals
is shown dramatically by comparison of the projected 1980 baseline total
hydrocarbon emissions per VMT value with the future (1976 and after)
Federal exhaust emission standards for new vehicles.
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates for carbon monoxide (CO)
and nitrogen oxides (NOX) are shown in Table 2. The table shows that
baseline control plans account for reductions in CO emissions which are
nearly equal to the reductions obtained for reactive hydrocarbons. These
reductions will result in the attainment of the Federal air quality
standards for CO in San Joaquin County. Nitrogen oxide emissions do not
pose an air quality problem in either the baseline projections; or the
base year itself.
Limitations in the Analysis
The quantification of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles in
a specific region depends substantially on the availability of empirical
data characterizing emission rates as a function of various aspects of the
regional vehicle population and transportation patterns. Because vehicle
emission rates depend on such a great variety of factors (i.e., type of
vehicle, condition of vehicle, driver habits, traffic flow, climate,
vehicle load, etc.), an accurate functional determination of these rates
is extremely involved, if not impossible. Consequently, the notion of
overall, or "average" emission rate values, becomes a necessary expedient
in the quantification of motor vehicle air contaminants. In the light of
this analytical compromise, average emission data by vehicle model year
have been generated for a "representative" nationwide driving pattern
termed the 1972 Federal Certification Test Procedure, and a limited number
of "region specific" adjustment factors have been determined for applica-
tion to the basic emission factors when specific regional data (average
89
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10
UJ
Q.
00
O
CO
O
O !-
o: E
Q ^
>- E
IE 01
O
UJ
o:
Motorcycles
HDGV
1976 Fed. Emission Std.
Reactive HC*, gm/mi.
LDV .37
HDGV 3.98
HDDV 1.04
Motorcycles 7.9
HDDV
1971
1975
1977
1980
Figure 4-7. Degree of Baseline Control for Various Vehicle Types
San Joaquin County
* Emission Factor = Exh. emission factor + evap. and crankcase emission factor
90
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TABLE 4-9
BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
(tons/day)
CARBON MONOXIDE
Type of Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel)
Motorcycle (2-Stroke)
Motorcycle (4-Stroke)
Total
% Reduction
(Fraction of Base Year)
Type of Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel )
Motorcycle (2-Stroke)
Motorcycle (4-Stroke)
Total
% Reduction
(Fraction of Base Year)
1971
(Base Year)
174.
15.
7.
0.9
2.2
199.1
NITROGEN OXIDES
1971
(Base Year)
27.2
2.7
11.5
41.4
1975
124.
19.
0.9
1.1
2.7
155.8
21.7
1975
24.5
3.4
14.1
42.0
1.5
1977
94.
21.
1.1
1.2
3.1
127.3
36.1
1977
19.7
3.4
14.5
37.6
9.18
1980
57.
24.1
7.
1.5
3.6
93.2
53.0
1980
13.4
3.2
13.7
30.3
26.81
91
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speed, altitude of region, gross weight of vehicle) is available to permit
this adjustment.
Substantial effort was exercised to obtain specific motor vehicle
information characterizing the San Joaquin County such that a maximum
number of "region specific" adjustments could be made. Despite these
adjustments, it was recognized that the final determination of total motor
vehicle emissions involved a procedure containing several inherent limita-
tions which could cause misrepresentation of region-specific characteristics.
The least reliable aspect of the base year and projected baseline motor
vehicle pollutant source inventory concerns hydrocarbon reactivity assump-
tions. Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely difficult and complex issue.
Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according to the rate at
which they react, the mixture that is potentially reactive, or the products
of reaction. The criterion for the ranking of hydrocarbon reactivity is a
controversial issue. The State Air Resources Board reactivity scale is
based on experiments performed in the Los Angeles APCD smog chamber experi-
ments. The Environment Protection Agency utilizes a reactivity scale
based on experiments by Altshuller. The two scales are highly discrepant.
For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive according to the ARE,
is 99 percent reactive according to the EPA. Evaporated gasoline, con-
sidered 50 percent reactive by the ARB, is 93 percent reactive according
to the EPA. Since the conventional oxidant rollback procedure centers on
the reduction of the reactive element of the total hydrocarbon inventory,
the uncertainty surrounding the reactivity scale is probably the most
significant limitation mitigating the calculation of a meaningful air
contaminant inventory.
The determination of total vehicular miles of travel (VMT) within a
specified region is best determined by transportation studies conducted in
the field. VMT may also be calculated based on vehicle registration and
annual vehicle mileage data for the region of study (the approach used by
State Air Resources Board), or based on total regional gas consumption and
vehicle gas mileage data. The latter approaches for calculating VMT were
expected to yield results in accord with the transportation study figures,
provided the regional characterization of vehicular travel used in the
analysis was representative of actual travel in the region (i.e., the
92
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inflow vehicle characterization equal to outflow vehicle characterization).
Figure 4-8 reveals that the VMT determinations based on motor data are lower
than those VMT values determined by either total regional gas consumption
or transportation studies. This suggested frequent through travel was
being carried out through each of the regions. An examination of the
regional transportation trip descriptions verified a substantial portion
of regional VMT was generated by traffic on major highways passing through
the areas (46).
o
o
<
o
I >)
o ia
fi O
31
CD
Q.
V)
01
to
c
o
0
Transportation (a)
Registrations (c)
(a) Based on transportation studies
(b) Based on gas consumption estimates*
(c) Based on light duty M V registrations
1971 1975 1977 1980
Figure 4-8. Baseline Total VMT Determinations for San Joaquin County
*VMT was calculated based on total gas consumption projections (see
Appendix B) and an average light duty MV gas mileage of 12.42 mi/gal
(A figure provided by the National Safety Council (47)).
93
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While there appears to be little question that transportation studies
yield the most reliable estimates of overall vehicular travel in the base
year, there is some question as to the accuracy of segregation of VMT in
terms of heavy duty and light duty vehicles, and in the projection of
these values to future years. The latter estimates involve reliance on
limited or conflicting data and as such have been subject to numerous judg-
ments in the analysis. These judgments involve the selection of various
conflicting studies projecting community growth parameters (population,
money earnings, vehicle registrations, highway and street expansions).
Another inherent difficulty in calculating future motor vehicle
pollution arises from the unpredictability of consumer preferences. A
number of unforseen factors may cause considerable changes in future
vehicle buyer habits. For example, it is noted that substantial increases
in small car sales were recorded during the first half of 1973, due quite
possibly, to the rapidly rising gasoline prices and the increased emphasis
on energy shortages. In view of recent air quality emphasis, and the
subsequent mandatory pollution control retrofit programs now being dis-
cussed, speculations are strong that new and later model car sales will
increase significantly in the regions targeted for controls. For the
purpose of the analysis conducted here, consumer buying habits were
considered fixed, and the vehicle model year distribution and annual
mileage by model distribution were assumed the same for all years in the.
estimates.
Another weakness in the emission inventory analysis concerns the
day-by-day variability of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles.
The analysis has included the assumption that pollutant emissions are
discharged at a relatively uniform rate throughout the year, when'actually
there may be significant daily and seasonal variations which contribute to
a varying atmospheric oxidant potential. The availability of data and the
limited time available for this study did not permit a quantification of
the parameters associated with this issue.
The methodology utilized in calculating motor vehicle (see Appendix A)
emissions provides for an adjustment of the Federal Certification Test
Procedure emission rates on the basis of regional average vehicular speed.
The source of data for regional traffic speeds are transportation studies
94
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conducted by the Division of Highways (46). The average speeds are
reported in terms of "weighted average speeds," and are computed by
aggregating the product of VMT and arithmetic average speeds measured
for the various roads and highways throughout the region. The resultant
weighted average speed is therefore somewhat higher than the true arith-
metic average speed. Consequently the corresponding speed adjustment
factor for emissions is somewhat misleading. Due to an absence of other
vehicle speed data, the weighted average speeds were incorporated in the
analysis.
It is evident that the combined effect of the above limitations is
a basic uncertainty in the reliability of the emission inventory. A
further effect is the untenable status of pollution control strategies
which rely on the analysis. The assumptions and constraints contained
in the methodology are inherently unavoidable at this time. However,
the analysis presented herein is fully representative of current
methodology in motor vehicle emission estimation, and as such, represents
the most valid inventory update available at this time. Further study is
needed to qualify and improve the emission quantification procedures.
95
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4.1.3 Transportation
Highway System
Route 99 passes through the center of San Joaquin County and along the
eastern edge of Stockton. It is used by 60 percent of the auto driver trips (48)
passing through the urban area. Interstate 5 comes closer to the Stockton
CBD as it passes urban area on the west side. Openings of successive
sections of this facility over the past years have had the effect of
continuously changing traffic patterns in Stockton. In the southwest
corner of the county, Interstate Routes 5, 205, and 580 form a big triangle
providing the distribution of various interregional travel movements.
Total travel in the Stockton urban area increased from 1.65 million
vehicle miles of travel daily in 1967 to 2.29 million VMT in 1971 (8).
County-wide travel in 1971 was 5.23 million VMT on an average weekday,
with heavy-duty vehicles.making up almost ten percent of the total.
Bus Transportation
Stockton Metropolitan Transit District has provided local public
transportation service in Stockton since 1964. The transit system coverage
includes about 83 percent of urban area population. About two million
people, one-third of these school children, used the bus system in 1972 (49).
Interstate bus transportation is provided by the Western Greyhound
Lines and Continental Trail ways.
Other Forms of Transportation
Interstate railroad service for the shipment of industrial, agri-
cultural and commercial freight is provided by three Class I railroads--
Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe; Southern Pacific Company; and Western
Pacific Railroad Company. Local operation in Stockton is augmented by
Central California Traction as well as Stockton Terminal and Eastern
and Tidewater Southern Railroad.
Stockton Metropolitan Airport is the major air terminal in the area,
where regular flights are scheduled by United Airlines, Hughes Air West,
and Golden Pacific.
The Port of Stockton is one of the largest inland deep water seaports
in California. Its facilities have been periodically expanded to meet
96
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growing demand for water transportation. A special container terminal was
added in 1970.
Travel Characteristics
Travel data for this area was derived from the Origin-Destination
Survey in the Stockton Urbanized Area, and countywide inventory and pro-
jections carried out by California Division of Highways in conjunction
with the National Highway Functional Classification and Needs Study.
The Origin-Destination Study was conducted in 1967. The study area
included approximately 170 square miles of the urbanized area with a
population of 170,000. The survey showed that there were a total of
363,000 driver trips (48) made in the Stockton Study Area on an average
weekday. Of these, 74.5 percent were trips entirely within the area,
while 4.6 percent passed completely through the area. Although 22.2
percent of dwelling units (48) had no vehicles available, only 8,800, or
1.6 percent of total person trips, used public transit. About 42 percent
of all dwelling units had two or more vehicles in 1967. Detailed support
data for these values is in Appendix B.
The study also showed that 70 percent of auto and light vehicle
trips (48) were taken by the driver alone. Leisure related travel with
41 percent of the total driver trips by residents (48) of the study
area was the pre-dominant trip purpose. Trips related to earning a living
made up 27 percent of the total.
In 1972, the downtown area of Stockton had 3,677 available parking
spaces (50). The 1967 survey showed that only in the case of 3.3. percent
of driver trips (48) in the total transportation study area had to pay
for the parking. In the CBD, which attracted 15.6 percent of all driver
trips, about 20 percent had to pay for the parking.
Projections
As part of the national needs study, Division of Highways has prepared
1990 projections of VMT for the San Joaquin County. Intermediate year
travel was estimated by straight line interpolation from these projections.
VMT for 1975, 1977, and 1980, along with base year data, is shown in
Table 4-10.
97
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TABLE 4-10. DAILY VMT IN SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
(Expressed in Thousands of Miles)
Base Year
(1971)
Light Duty Vehicles 4712
Heavy Duty Vehicles: Gasoline
Diesel
Total
196
315
511
1975
5890
257
416
673
1977
6473
288
468
756
1980
7350
336
544
880
TABLE 4-11. AVERAGE SPEEDS IN SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY (1971)
By Street Type Average Speed
Freeway 55 mph
Arterial ' 35 mph
Local 20 mph
By Vehicle Type
Light Duty Vehicle 39 mph
Heavy Duty Vehicle , 50 mph
98
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Total travel in San Joaquin County is expected to increase by
57 percent from 1971 to 1980, with the growth taking place equally within
the Stockton urban area and the remainder of the county. Interstate 5
will be completed north to Sacramento by 1980. Route 99 in Stockton will
be upgraded between Wilson Way and Waterloo Road, and a new freeway
crosstown connection from Interstate 5 to Wilson Way in the general
corridor of Washington and Lafayette Streets should be completed during
this time. Route 120 bypass of Manteca is also expected to be completed
by 1980.
The average speeds for Stockton freeways and expressways as well as
arterial streets were calculated from the Division of Highways estimates
for the needs study. A detailed summary of VMT estimates and average
speeds are given in Appendix B.
gg
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4.2 CONTROL MEASURE ASSESSMENT
In Section 3.2 of this report, each of the air pollution control
measures to be considered were briefly described in terms of its general
effectiveness, applicability, and feasibility. In this section (4.2),
each of the measures is evaluated for specific application in San Joaquin
County. The discussion includes the operation of the control and the
basis for the estimated emission reduction to be expected from the control.
Stationary source controls are discussed i.n Section 4.2.1, aircraft con-
trols in 4.2.2, and motor vehicle controls in 4.2.3.
4.2.1 Stationary Source Controls
The controls discussed in Section 3.2.1 are analyzed in this section
for application in San Joaquin County.
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control--Bulk Terminals
Since the publication of the ARB Implementation Plan for the region,
the Kern, Fresno, and San Joaquin County APCDs have enacted regulations
controlling emissions from bulk terminals. These regulations are scheduled
for full implementation by January 1, 1974. Thus, emission reductions due
to these controls are claimed here, but no cost will be assigned since this
may be considered a pre-existing program.
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control--Service Stations
Recently, the American Petroleum Institute sponsored a-study of
methods available for evaporative emission control between the service
station and the automobile. According to the report, "control methods
would avoid about 71 percent of vapor emission immediately upon completion
of the service station conversion. The vapor emission avoided would pro-
gressively increase over a period of about 10 years to about 94 percent to
98 percent depending on the particular method considered" (55). The
variation in the percentage effectiveness over time is dependent upon the
development of a safe, vapor tight filling nozzle and a matching standard-
ized automotive fill pipe.
Although many alternatives are available, only-three of the most
promising techniques are presented. The descriptions of these methods
are as follows:
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Case 3 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with No Recovery of
Excess Vapors
This control scheme is based on displacing vapor from the
vehicle fuel tank to the storage tank from which the fuel was
pumped. This is accomplished by making a tight seal at the
interface between the fill nozzle and the fuel nozzle and the
fuel tank fill pipe. The fill nozzle is designed such that
there is a space around the nozzle through which the displaced
vapors can be directed to a vapor return line. This line directs
the vapors displaced from the vehicle fuel tank back to the
underground storage tank from which the fuel is pumped. The
volume of the vapors displaced equals the volume of the fuel
pumped from the storage tank. The vehicle fuel tank, vapor in
the underground storage tank is displaced back to the fuel
supply truck at each delivery... . Any excess vapors gener-
ated at the service station due to temperature conditions is
vented to the atmosphere (55).
Case 4 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Refrigeration
This control scheme is based on displacing vehicle fuel tank
vapors during refueling back to the storage tank from which the
fuel was pumped. This is accomplished by making a tight seal at
the interface between the fill nozzle and the fuel tank fill
pipe. The fill nozzle is designed such that there is a space
around the nozzle through which the displaced vapors can be
directed to a vapor return line. This line directs the vapors
displaced from the vehicle fuel tank back to the underground
storage tank from which the fuel was pumped. The volume of the
vapor displaced equals the volume of the fuel pumped into the
vehicle fuel tank. The vapor in the underground storage tanks
is displaced back to the fuel supply truck at each delivery...
Any excess vapors generated at the service station due to tem-
perature conditions are vented to a two-stage vapor compression
system with intermediate cooling and final condensation by re-
frigeration. Condensed vapors consisting of propane and heavier
hydrocarbons are returned to the underground storage tanks.
The refrigeration unit is of 1.0 ton capacity at -10 F, and it
is started and stopped on suction pressure sensing in a vapor
holder (55).
Case 5 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Activated Carbon Adsorption
This control scheme is based on displacing vehicle fuel
tank vapors during refueling back to the storage tank from
which the fuel was pumped. This is accomplished by making a
tight seal at the interface between the fill nozzle and the
fuel tank fill pipe. The fill nozzle is designed such that
there is space in the nozzle through which the displaced
vapors can be directed to a vapor return line. This line
101
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directs the vapors displaced from the vehicle fuel tank back to
the underground storage tank from which the fuel was pumped.
The volume of the vapors displaced equals the volume of the fuel
pumped into the vehicle fuel tank... . Any excess vapors gener-
ated at the service station due to temperature conditions are
vented to an activated carbon adsorption unit. All of the hydro-
carbons are adsorbed in this unit. The activated carbon unit
consists of four transportable canisters containing 25 pounds of
activated carbon each. These canisters are regenerated about
four times per month during the summer and considerably less
during the rest of the year. The canisters are regenerated at
the fuel supply terminal and their contained vapors are covered
in the terminal vapor recovery system. The canisters are hauled
to and from the supply terminal on trucks fitted specifically
for this purpose (55).
The effectiveness of the "Case 3" method was approximated to be 71
percent recovery assuming service station conversions were initiated in
1973 and completed in 1975. Eventually, a 95 percent recovery could be
expected when all automobiles were fitted with standardized fill pipes.
This maximum control would not occur until about 1985 due to the lead
time for normal attrition of older vehicles. Cases 4 and 5 are estimated
to have about a 3 percent better vapor recovery due to the condensation
or adsorption of the vapors escaping from the storage tanks.
The costs for each case were estimated as follows:
Case 3 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakout for new and revamp stations.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor*
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 418 $1,438
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight
seal vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor
return hose). 330 7£
$ 748 $1,516
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 150 151
$ 898 $1,667
Concrete removal and repair and tank 2 50Q
9 rii $
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New station cost = $898 + $1,667 = $2,565
Revamp station cost = $898 + $4,167 = $5,065
*Labor costs at $16/hour.
Operating Costs to Service Station
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal
vapor return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor return
portion of the hoses at $30/year.
Case 4 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Refrigeration
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakout for new and revamp stations.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor*
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 883 $1,896
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight seal
vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor
return hose). 330 78
Condensation-refrigeration package 5,000 500
$6,213 $2,474
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 1,243 247
$7,456 $2,721
Concrete removal, repair, and tank 2,500
purging $7,456 $5,221
New station cost = $7,456 + $2,721 = $10,177
Revamp station cost = $7,456 + $5,221 = $12,677
*Labor costs at $16/hour.
Operating Costs to Service Station
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal
vapor return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor return
portion of the hoses at $30/year.
*Cooling water** at 3 gpm at $0.20M gallons, say $28/year.
Power supply for 3 HP motor at $0.03/KWH, say $63/year.
Maintenance and inspection cost, use 6%/year installed;
equipment cost = $10,159 x 0.03/year = $609/year.
**Water is used only when equipment is in operation.
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Case 5 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Activated Carbon Adsorption
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakdown for new and revamp stations.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor*
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 638 $2,096
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight seal
vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor return 330 78
hose).
(8) carbon canisters at $80 each 640 32
Regeneration facilities** 25_ ]_2_
$1,633 $2,218
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 327 222
$1,960 $2,440
Concrete removal, repair, and tank 2,500
purging $1,960 $4,940
New station cost = $1,960 + $2,440 = $4,400
Revamp station cost = $1,960 + $4,940 = $6,900
*Labor costs at $16/hour.
**Regeneration facilities for 167 stations.
Operating Costs to Service Station/Regeneration Terminal
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal vapor
return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor return portion
of the hoses at $30/year. Power supply for 5 HP vacuum pump
motor at $0.03/KWH, say $l/year.
The cost effectiveness for each of the systems reviewed is as
fol1ows: $/lb.vapor */gal.gas % reduction
Case Description recovered pumped 1977 1985
3 S/S displacement 0.19 0.14 76 95
4 S/S displacement 0.82 0.61 79 98
and refrigeration
5 S/S displacement 0.34 0.25 79 98
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From these figures it is obvious that Case 3 represents the most
efficient technique for motor vehicle vapor recovery. Cases 4 and 5 offer
additional recoveries but the incremental costs associated with these
recoveries is very high.
In summary, the controls selected for application to evaporative
emissions resulting from the marketing of gasoline are as follows:
a) Vapor recovery at bulk terminal loading facilities
(where required).
b) Underground tank vapor return to delivery truck.
c) Motor vehicle tank vapor return to underground tank
storage ("Case 3" of Reference 55).
Gasoline Modification-Reid Vapor Pressure Change
The evaluation of this measure requires a complete analysis of the
impact on all emission subsequent to the change and the resultant change
in photochemical reactivity of the modified fuel. According to Nelson (51),
lowering the Reid vapor pressure.from 9.0 psi to 6.0 psi reduces the ex-
pected evaporative emissions by 27 percent.
>
On the other hand, a joint study by the CARB, LAAPCD, and Western Oil
and Gas Association (56) found much less benefit from such a fuel compo-
sition change. Although the study found the average percentage gains in
emissions from stationary sources to be in good agreement with Nelson,
the total net reduction was considerably less. Overall, the CARB study
concluded in Reid vapor pressure from 9.0 psi to 6.0 psi would produce
only a net hydrocarbon emission reduction of 9 percent. The key considera-
tion was that "in general, a reduction in vapor pressure using fuels like
the prototypes would produce a reduction in emissions due to evaporation of
gasoline, an increase in exhaust hydrocarbon emissions, and a decrease in
the total organic emissions associated with both gasoline associated
sources and all sources, mobile and stationary" (56).
In addition, if one considers the impact of the reactivity change,
the net benefit from a change in Reid vapor pressure becomes even less
yet. Using the R-l reactivity scale, it was concluded the overall gain
from all gasoline related emission sources drops to about 4 or 5 percent
and if the R-2 reactivity scale is used, the equivalent gain becomes only
1.2 percent. Thus, when the total resultant hydrocarbon losses (evaporative
105
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and exhaust) and the reactivity questions are considered, the gains in
hydrocarbon improvements become quite low. If one goes on further to
examine the cost associated with such a fuel composition change, the cost
effectiveness of this strategy becomes very marginal.
At least two studies have reviewed the cost of such a change. The
first (53) estimated capital costs at some $60 million and manufacturing
cost per gallon at approximately 1.33 cents for large refineries and 2.13
cents for smaller refineries. The American Petroleum Institute (54)
indicated that modifying gasoline to have a Reid vapor pressure of 6 psi
would increase manufactured costs by 1.24 cents per gallon. Assuming an
average markup between refinery and consumer of about 100 percent (Oil
and Gas Journal, December 1972), the cost would average 2.5 cents per
gallon more to the consumer.
In summary, the key considerations are:
Changing Reid vapor pressures results in substantial
reductions in evaporative losses during fuel transfers.
t A lower Reid vapor pressure may increase exhaust hydro-
carbons negating some of the reductions gained.
0 A lower Reid vapor pressure may increase the reactivity
of the gasoline again, partially negating some of the
reductions gained.
The cost of modifying gasoline to provide a lower Reid
vapor pressure is substantial.
In view of the above, changing the Reid vapor pressure of gasoline
appears to be a strategy which deserves further investigation, but which
cannot be recommended at this time.
Organic Surface Coating Substitution
The Kern, Fresno, and San Joaquin County APCDs have enacted regulations
concerning organic solvent usage which are comparable to Los Angeles' Rule
66. Since Rule 66 represents relatively stringent control, the potential
for further control of emissions from this source category is limited.
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The proposed controls consist of a tightened version of Los Angeles
County Rule 66 to further eliminate RHC emissions. They are:
1) Substitution of water-based for organic-based coatings
2) Use of powdered and/or high solids content coatings
It is estimated that a further 50 percent reduction in RHC emissions
from this source is a reasonable expectation once the proper substitutions
are developed and marketed (30). To allow a reasonable lead time
full implementation it has been assumed that a 30 percent reduction will
be attained by 1975, and a 50 percent reduction by 1977.
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
The proposed control consists of adding activated carbon adsorption
systems to the petroleum solvent dry cleaning plants in order to collect
the solvent vapors. Such systems have been used extensively in synthetic
solvent plants for recovery of the high-cost synthetic solvent (i.e.,
roughly $2.00/gal vs. $.30/gal for petroleum solvent). A 90 percent
reduction in emissions from this source appears to be a realistic goal
for 1975.
Degreaser Substitution
The present state of control for.reactive hydrocarbons from de-
greasers consists of limited substitution of non-reactive for reactive
solvents and condenser or absorber systems to recover evaporative losses.
The proposed control consists of complete substitution of 1,1,1-T
for TCE in degreasers using TCE. Necessary process and equipment changes
for this substitution are anticipated to be minimal, in fact, 1,1,1-T may
actually save on operating costs. The substitution of PCE for TCE would
involve higher costs in terms of both equipment changes and operating
costs.
It is assumed that a complete elimination in reactive hydrocarbon
emissions from this source category will result. It is also anticipated
that since the required solvents are readily available, this measure can
be fully implemented by 1975.
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Burning Regulation
Backyard Incineration
The CARS's plan for control of backyard burning should reduce
emissions in this category by 50 percent in 1975:
"...by 1975, backyard burning at single and two-family
dwelling units will no longer be permitted in urban
areas where alternative waste disposal provisions are
available..." (59).
Lumber Industry Control
Improvements in burning practices to be required of the lumber
industry will reduce emissions in this category by 60 percent in 1975:
"Controls which will promote more complete combustion
in the lumber industry's burning processes will reduce
the emission of highly reactive organic gases..." (59).
Agricultural Incineration
Finally, a 20 percent reduction in RHC emissions from the incineration
of agricultural wastes is expected in San Joaquin County due to improved
burning practices. In Kern and Fresno Counties, a 90 percent reduction is
expected due to the application of the CARB "burn-no burn" regulation to
these counties.
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4.2.2 Aircraft Controls
The emission reductions due to the modified taxi-idle procedure
discussed in Section 3.2.2 of this report may be applied only on turbine-
powered aircraft. Stockton Metropolitan Airport is the only airport in
San Joaquin County with turbine aircraft operations. Emissions of
Reactive hydrocarbons is expected to be 0.02 tons/day from these aircraft
in 1975 (see Appendix C). If this measure were able to reduce these
emissions by 50%, the resultant reduction would be 0.01 tons/day. This
corresponds to only 0.03% of the total county baseline emissions in 1975.
This miniscule reduction does not appear to be worth the .effort, and the
measure is not recommended for application in San Joaquin County.
4.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls
Motor vehicle control measures considered for use in San Joaquin
County are of two basic types -- vehicle-oriented and system-oriented.
Vehicle-oriented controls are those which are applied directly to the
individual vehicles and include retrofit devices and inspection/maintenance.
System-oriented controls are those which involve users of transportation
modes collectively and include bus systems, carpools, parking controls, and
so on. Vehicle-oriented controls are discussed in 4.2.3.1 and system-
oriented controls in 4.2.3.2.
4.2.3.1 Vehicle-Oriented Controls
Vehicle-oriented controls have been discussed for the general case in
Section 3.2.3.1. Since, among the three counties considered in this study,
there are no differences which would preclude use of one of these controls
within their boundaries, further discussion would be redundant; the reader
is referred to Section 3.2.3.1.
4.2.3.2 System-Oriented Control Measures
Section 3.2 of this report contains a general discussion of various
alternative control measures. A more specific review of these measures
as they apply to San Joaquin County and especially to Stockton urbanized
area is included in this section.
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Improvement of public transit with the intent to divert some auto
drivers is applicable only in the Stockton urbanized area where presently
approximately 44 percent of the countywide total daily VMT is generated.
The transit user base is small and historically it has been declining,
although the decline appears to have leveled off. The present users con-
sist almost entirely of transit dependent population: elderly, children
and people without automobiles. With additional funds, especially
operating subsidies, there is considerable room for improvement of the
public transit system. It is doubtful, however, that it would be possible
to achieve a significant diversion from autos to transit without direct
controls on automobile use.
There is no evidence of any extensive organized car pooling activity
in Stockton, There are only a handful of large employers with 1,000 em-
ployees or more that have some potential for car pooling. Vehicle-free
zones, while useful for enhancing specific local developments, would have
no impact on areawide travel.
Parking control measures could be used to discourage some use of
automobiles for trips to the central area of Stockton. The 1967 0-D
survey showed that only 20 percent of drivers had to pay for parking, and
present rates charged are also very low. The difficulty with this measure
is that increased parking costs would further weaken the CBD and only
encourage the growth of suburbs, thus furthering the undesirable trend.
The only trips subject to diversion to transit or car pooling are the non-
discretionary trips such as the work trip. On an areawide basis, little
could be achieved since only 15.6 percent of all driver trips are destined
for the CBD.
Exclusive bus/car pool lanes are not too applicable for this area,
except maybe in the CBD where increased number of buses might warrant
separate lanes. Preemption of traffic signal green time by buses may be
a possibility. Traffic operation generally is very smooth and neither
of these measures would increase operating speed of buses significantly.
Stockton urbanized area is relatively small and average trip length is
around 3.2 miles. At these distances it is not possible to provide a
substantial overall advantage by exclusive lanes. The two freeways also
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skirt the populated areas in such a way that buses cannot utilize them
effectively. For the same reason imposition of tolls on the freeways would
not be effective in reducing VMT. Drivers would simply use the local
streets creating congestion and increased pollution.
Various tax disincentives might be considered since these could be
applied not only to the Stockton urbanized area but also to the entire
air basin. Special pollution tax charged on mileage of each motor vehicle
or on gasoline would tend to reduce auto usage. It would be extremely
regressive on limited income group, especially that portion which is
beyond the limits of transit service.
A four-day work week would reduce the work commute travel, but since
traffic congestion is not the problem, this measure is not applicable in
San Joaquin County. Recreational and other non-work related travel would
more than replace work travel. Similarly, a moratorium on further traffic
improvements would have no effect on total travel. Drivers can tolerate
extreme levels of congestion, and the street system in Stockton is such
that the point where people would switch to transit would not be reached
for a long time even if all improvements were stopped right now.
Gasoline rationing is a direct control measure which could be used
to achieve reduction in vehicle miles of travel. Direct regulatory controls
are authoritarian in nature and characterized by mandatory policy, rules .
and regulations. They leave little room for individual decision making;
consequently they are more predictable in the actual results. The same
goal which all other measures attempt to achieve by increased cost and/or
inconveniencereduction in VMT--could be realized through gasoline
rationing.
A broad spectrum of control measures have been examined, ranging from
expanding alternative means of transportation to indirect controls by
various pricing mechanisms and finally to direct control of gasoline
supplies. It must be recognized that the effectiveness and predictability
of final results is related to directness of the control measure. Direct
controls which affect most people, however, are also the least acceptable
by the public and they arouse the broadest opposition.
Ill
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In considering various transportation control measures, it is clear
that alternatives to private automobile must be provided before any far
reaching restrictions can be imposed. Thus, public transit must be improved
and car pooling should be encouraged. Some controls, such as vehicle free
zones, tolls on freeways, four-day work week schedule and moratorium on
traffic improvements, would either have no effect on the pollution problem
in San Joaquin County or would only make matters worse.
Exclusive bus/car pool lanes or preemption of traffic signal green
time would not have any impact immediately, but these measures should be
planned for the time when the buses will make up a significant portion of
vehicular traffic in selected corridors. Parking control measures would be
effective only in Stockton central area and should be limited to all-day
parking. The disincentives would be effective for the entire county, but
they would be regressive on low income groups and adequate alternative
means of transportation is not available outside the urban area. Finally,
direct control of VMT by gasoline rationing could be used to achieve
desired level of reduction. Since 1967 survey showed that 45.2 percent of
total resident trips were related to leisure activities, moderate rationing
could be imposed without causing extreme economic hardships.
Improvement of Public Transit
Public transit is important to the transportation needs and air quality
in the region. The low density land use pattern, however, is not conducive
to the efficient use of mass transit. Thus, the City had to take over from
a private operator, and the Stockton Metropolitan Transit District has pro-
vided public.transportation since 1964. The system presently runs about
a 50 percent operating deficit.
The transit system operates a fleet of 36 buses. The seven routes,
all of which pass through the CBD, serve about 83 percent of the population
and 90 percent of the employment (49) in the Stockton urban area. The routes,
however, are circuitous and most areas have 20 minute service at best during
the peak periods. Regular fare is $0.25 with special rates of $0.15 for
senior citizens and $0.10 for students, ilost of the users are elderly,
children and those without automobiles.
The District is currently renovating older buses and seeking capital
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grant for replacement equipment. At the time of 1967 Origin-Destination
Survey, less than 1.6 percent of all person trips in the Stockton urbanized
area were made by public transit. No attempt was made to develop a mode
split model or some other means of forecasting transit trips for this area.
Council of Governments is seeking a planning grant from US'TA for a compre-
hensive transit study which would, among other things, explore the potential
for an expanded transit service.
Meanwhile, the public attitude survey conducted in conjunction with
this study showed that the most desired features in a transit system, ahead
of such amenities as modern, air conditioned buses, are the frequency of
service and the convenience of bus stop locations. It has also been
observed more frequently that the present standard of one-quarter mile
walking distance for transit service coverage is too great. Potential
transit users do not like to walk beyond one-eighth of a mile.
To achieve greater frequency of service, such as 10-15 minute head-
ways, and to provide more complete coverage needed to attract regular
auto users, the present bus system would have to be greatly expanded. As-
suming that this will be possible by capital grants and allowance of
greater percentage of SB325 for operating expenditures, some estimate can
be made as to what this would do to the total VMT in the region.
Areas similar to Stockton which have carried out transit studies have
estimated that with considerable improvement of transit system, ridership
could be tripled by 1980. Assuming similar results in Stockton, it would
mean that approximately 13,200 new daily transit riders could be expected.
Furthermore, if it is optimistically assumed that all these would switch
from automobiles which in 1967 had an average occupancy of 1.42 (48) and
an average trip length of 3.2 miles, reduction in VMT because of expanded
transit system can be calculated as follows:
13,200 1.42 x 3.2 = 29,800 VMT
This represents a reduction of 0.8 percent of VMT in the Stockton
Urban Area and less than 0.3 percent of the projected total VMT for the
San Joaquin County by 1980.
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Increased Car Pooling
Total vehicle miles of travel (VMT) can also be reduced by encourag-
ing car pooling, or sharing of private vehicles by several persons. Unlike
transit improvements, this measure deals almost exclusively with people
who presently own and use their automobiles. The work trip, which tradi-
tionally has the longest trip length and the lowest auto occupancy, is the
principal target.
The same urban characteristics which encourage use of public transit
also help car poolingscarcity and high cost of parking together with
traffic congestion. An additional very important factor is the presence
of large employers with fixed working hours. Staggered work hours
mitigate against car pooling. On the other hand, dispersed, low density
residential development is not as detrimental to car pooling as it is to
public transit.
The City of Stockton is not too well suited for car pooling; however,
some potential exists in Stockton central area and a number of other larger
employment centers such as Sharpe Army Depot, Port of Stockton, University
of Pacific, Delta College, and several large manufacturing plants -with 1,000
or more employees.
Limited studies of car pooling show that for the program to succeed
four ingredients are essential to its success:
1. Public information
2. Incentives
3. Matching service
4. Continuity in support
Public information is critical to gain public support and to stimulate
demand for car pooling. Incentives are very desirable to motivate people
to join car pools. Positive response is usually received to incentives
which provide added convenience to car-poolers, such as special "parking
pool" facilities, use of company or agency cars, and preferential parking
treatment. Measures which would penalize driving alone, such as priority
ramps, freeway tolls and graduated license fees, are disliked even by
people who are interested in car pooling.
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General guidelines have been suggested^ ' as to the type of matching
appropriate for different employee group sizes.
Potential Car Pool
Group Size Matching Technique
Less than 1,000 Manual matching, using an areawide map
1,000 to 5,000 Computer matching, based on grid system
Greater than 5,000 Computer matching, with automatic
address coding
In addition to incentives and car pool matching service, an active
and continuous support of the program is required by the management to
maintain interest and participation. This is particularly true in institu-
tions such as universities where there is a large turnover and new people
have to be informed and encouraged to participate.
The 1967 Origin-Destination Survey showed that the average auto
occupancy for work trips in Stockton area was an extremely low 1.16 per-
sons per car. In larger urban areas more suited for car pooling, it has
been possible to increase work trip occupancy from 1.20 to 1.45 at the
major work trip generators.
Assuming that by full cooperation and active support of all major
employers in the area similar results could be achieved in Stockton for
about 40 percent of work trips, reduction in VMT for the 1967 base year,
when there were 55,720 person work trips, would have been:
55,720 x .60/1.12 = 29,850
55,720 x .40/1.40 = 15.920
Total driver trips 45,770
Reduction of auto work trips from 47,880 to 45,770 with an average trip
length of approximately 3.5 miles would have a net reduction of 2,110 x
3.5 = 7,385 daily VMT. Travel by 1980 is expected to be just about double
of what it was in 1967. Thus, a reduction of 14,770 VMT could be expected
from a reasonably successful car pooling proaram in Stockton by 1980.
This would mean a reduction of 0.4 percent VMT in the Stockton
Urban Area and less than 0.2 percent of the projected total VMT for the
San Joaquin County by 1980.
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Parking Control Measures
Parking control measures can be used to either discourage the use
of private vehicles or to increase the efficiency of their usage. This
can be accomplished by either limiting the number of parking spaces or by
controlling their use through pricing mechanisms. The measure is most
effective in the central business district.
In the absence of total land use planning, just limiting the number of
spaces or indiscriminately increasing their cost can injure the vitality
of the CBD. Such action would only promote urban sprawl by forcing more
businesses and their customers out to suburbs where there is no alterna-
tive to private automobile. Parking control measure must be directed to
that segment of parkers .who are likely to come to the CBD regardless of
controls, but who would use alternative means if parking became too
expensive or inconvenient. Long-term employee parking is the only one that
falls in this category in Stockton central city area.
There are no recent parking studies available in Stockton, and thus
it is difficult to estimate an impact of parking control measure. There
are 3,677 parking spaces in the downtown area in 1972. Monthly rates are
$17.50 in the parking ramp and $12.00 in off-street lots. Maximum daily
rate is $1.25.
A control measure of limiting construction of additional long-term
parking spaces along with increased long-term parking rates should help
to somewhat decrease exclusive use of private automobiles for work trips
to the CBD. The measure will require increased enforcement of parking
time limits in short-term parking locations as well as prohibition of
meter feeding by all-day parkers.
It is estimated that with parking control measures, additional car
pooling of work trips would take place as well as increased use of transit.
If approximately 1,000 auto work trips to the CBD are diverted to other
modes, reduction of 7,000 daily VMT could be achieved by 1930.
This would mean a reduction of 0.2 percent VMT in the Stockton
Urban Area and less than 0.1 percent of the projected total VMT for
San Joaquin County by 1980.
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4.3 PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY
Ultimately, the effectiveness of any control strategy will be
measured in terms of its ability to reduce emissions to the desired air
quality levels. As noted, the relationship between air pollutant
emissions and ambient air quality is not well understood, despite major
efforts to develop both sophisticated analytical and statistical models.
Many of the other limitations in the data bases and working assumptions
have been discussed.
The proposed control strategy fully recognizes inadequacies in the
data analyzed; it is presented to be as accurate a portrayal as possible
of the air pollution situation given the limits and constraints imposed
upon the study. Directionally, the implementation of many or all of the
controls will result in significantly improved air quality. In a tech-
nical sense, the proposed plan should allow for attainment of the air
quality standards by the 1977 target date.
In general, implementation of Phase I measures can be justified on
the basis of air quality improvements at reasonable costs and with minor
social impacts. These measures are therefore, highly recommended for
implementation as soon as possible.
The impact of implementing the Phase II control measures is
staggering, both in terms of economic costs and the societal disruptions.
which would result from their institution. Also, it is not clear at this
time whether some of these measures are technologically feasible and/or
effective. Further evaluation and testing is clearly warranted for these
measures before they can be advocated on a wide-spread basis.
The necessity for Phase II control measures results from insufficient
emission reductions being demonstrably achieved from the Phase I measures.
The choice of which additional controls will actually be implemented
remains to be decided. The measures listed in this analysis were chosen
somewhat arbitrarily and are used more for illustrative purposes. They
are intended to indicate the severity of additional controls which appear
to be necessary to achieve the NAAQS. Other measures could easily have
been considered. To some extent, Phase II controls were aimed at control-
ling heretofore uncontrolled sources, e.g. motorcycles and heavy duty
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vehicles. The difficulty of achieving additional controls after the
Phase I measures can be briefly summarized:
By 1975-1977, no single source category pre-dominates in the
emission inventory; that is, all categories contribute a little
to the overall problem.
Major pollution sources, e.g. stationary sources and light duty
vehicles, will be stringently controlled by 1975-1977, and
additional controls on these categories will be difficult to
achieve.
t Minor pollution sources, e.g. motorcycles and heavy duty vehicles,
although uncontrolled, continue to be relatively small contributors
to the problem; therefore, controls of these categories will have
only minor impact on total emissions.
The following graphs show the effect of the proposed TRW emission
control strategies for reactive hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. The
effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in relation to the allowable
emissions, which correspond to meeting the air quality standards. The
baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state and local controls v.'hich
are already, or will be, in effect on all types of sources. The curve
for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due to the proposed
Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles only. Other
curves show the reductions due to stationary source controls and Phase II
controls.
For these curves, "Stationary Source Controls" include gasoline mar-
keting loss controls, organic surface coating substitution, dry cleaning
vapor control, degreaser substitution, and burning regulation. "Motor
Vehicle Controls" include mandatory inspection/maintenance, oxidizing
catalytic converters, and the pre-1966 retrofit device. "Phase II
Controls" include the elimination of motorcycle use during smog season,
evaporative retrofit devices (light duty vehicles), and heavy duty
vehicle catalytic converter and evaporative retrofits plus HDV inspection/
maintenance with a 50% rejection rate. Each of these control measures is
discussed later in the text.
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Table 4-12, 4-13, and 4-14 show the baseline motor vehicle
emissions inventory for reactive hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitro-
gen oxides, respectively, and itemize the effects on emissions of the
Phase I and Phase II vehicle-oriented control measures. Table 4-15
shows the predicted inventory of emissions for 1975, 1977, and 1980 if
the recommended Phase I control measures are implemented.
40
30
20
10
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(1) Baseline
2) Stationary Source Controls
3) Motor Vehicle Controls
4) Phase II Controls
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 4-9. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for San Joaquin County - Reactive Hydrocarbon
(1970 - 1980)
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300
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
I
(SI
z
p
200
TOO
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
1970
1972
1974
.1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 4-10.
Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for San Joaquin County - Carbon Monoxide
(1970 - 1980)
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TABLE 4-12. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDHV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures'
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1956 Retrofit (1955-65)
Inspect! on/Mai ntenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Phase II Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(durinq smog season)
LDHV Evaporative Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent 1/11°
Total Reductions
TOTAL Renaininq Emissions
San Joaquin County
1971
Tons /day
24.9
2.2
1.1
0.7
28.9
1975
Tons /day
16.7
2.5
1.4
0.9
21.5
Reductions
Tons/day
-2.7
-0.6
-0.8
-4.1
17.4
-0.9
-2.2
-1.3
-8.5
13.0
Percent
12.6
2.8
3.7
19.1
80.9
4.2
10.2
6.0
39.5
60.5
1977
Tons/day
12.7
2.5
1.5
1.0
17.7
Reductions
Tons /day
-1.9
-0.4
-1.5
-3.8
13.9
-1.0
-1.5
-1.3
-7.5
10.1
Percent
10.7
2.3
8.5
21.5
78.5
5.6
8.5
7.3
4.3
57.1
1980
Tons/day
7.9
.2.4
1.4
1.3
13.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-1.2
-0.2
-0.9
-2.3
10.7
-1.3
-0.8
-1.2
-5.6
7.4
Pe rcen t
9.2
1.5
6.9
17.7
82.3
10.0
6.1
9.2
4.3
56.9
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 nercent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64, percent reactive, Evao. - 83 nercent effective, 75 nercent of all vehicles,
9 nercent reduction in HC fron I/!-!
Liqht Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty '-'otor Vehicles - (HD"V)
-------
TABLE 4-13. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
ro
ro
Baseline Emission Inventory
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-G5)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
San Joaquin County
1971
Tons/day
174.0
15.0
7.0
3.0
199.0
1975
Tons/day
124.0
19.0
9.0
4.0
156.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-26.0
-1.0
-2.9
-29.9
126.0
Percent
-16.7
-0.6
-1.9
19.2
80.8
1977
Tons/day
94.0
21.0
8.0
4.0
127.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-20.0
-0.4
-8.8
-29.2
97.8
Percent
-15.7
-0.3
-6.9
23.0
77.0
1980
Tons/day
57.0
24.0
7.0
5.0
93.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-12.0
-0.1
-5.4
-17.5
75.5
Percent
-12.9
-0.1
-5.8
18.8
81.2
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 4-14. OXIDES OF NITROGEN EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
ro
co
Baseline Emission Inventory
LDHV
HDMV
Diesels
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-C5)
Total Reductions
San Joaauin County
1971
Tons/day
27.2
2.7
11.5
41.4
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
1975
Tons/day
24.5
3.4
14.1
42.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.5
-0.5
41.5
Percent
1.2
1.2
98.8
1977
Tons/day
19.7
3.4
14.5
37.6
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.3
-0.3
37.3
Percent
0.8
0.8
99.2
1980
Tons/day
13.4
3.2
13.7
30.3
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.2
-0.2
30.1
Percent
0.7
0.7
99.3
a) Based on presently planned control programs
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 4-15. PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY - SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential , Commer-
cial , and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Metallurgi-
cal, Mineral, Lumber,
and Petroleum Prod.
Subtotal Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
' 6.8
3.0
3.2
8.8
4.0
1.5
0.7
0.2
28.2
0.08
29.9
2.6
1.1
0.8
62,7
RHC
6.3~"
0.6
0.6
1.7
0.5
0.2
_
9,9
0.07
24.9
2.2
1.1
0,7
38.9
NOX
0.4
-
-
-
0,3
0.1
6.8
7.6
0.06
27,2
2,7
11.5
-
49,1
CO
-
-
-
-
7
2
1
2
12
1.9
174
15
7
3
213
1975
THC
1.9
2.2
2.4
9.3
1.4
1.4
0.7
0.2 '
19.5
0.11
15.8
3.1
1.4
1.0
40.9
RHC
1.8
0.4
-
1.9
0.2
0.1
_
4.4
0.10
12.6
2.5
1.4
0,9
21.9
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
7.2
.
7.9
0.08
24.0
3,4
14.1
-
49.5
CO
-
-
-
-
2
2
1
2
7
2.5
94
19
9
4
136
1977
THC
0.8
1.6
2.5
9.6
1.5
1.5
0.8
0.2
18.5
0.13
11.4
3.1
1.5
1.1
35,7
RHC
0.8
0.3
-
1.9
0.2
0.2
.
3.4
0.12
8.9
2.5
1.5
1.0
17.4
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
7.4
.
8.1
0.09
19.4
3.4
14.5
-
45.5
CO
-
-
-
-
3
2
1
2
8
2.8
65
21
8
4
109
1980
THC
0.9
1.7
2.7
10.1
1.6
1.6
0.8
0.2
19.6
0.12
7.2
2.9
1.4
1.4
32.6
RHC
0.8
0.3
-
2.0
0.2
0.2
-
.
3.5
0.11
5.6
2.4
1.4
1.3
14.3
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
7.8
8.0
0.10
13.2
3.2
13.7
-
38.2
CO
-
-
-
-
3
3
1
2
9
2.9
40
24
7
5
88
ro
-------
The control measures outlined are not new and have been proposed
elsewhere; no "magic solution" was found and only incremental improvements
can be expected from each measure. Over the short term, large emission
reductions will result from presently planned programs at all levels of
government -- Federal, state, and local. By the years 1975-77, the remain-
ing uncontrolled emissions will come from many, many sources, the majority of
which are controlled. At this point .in time, incremental air quality im-
provements become more difficult, expensive, disruptive, and publicly
unacceptable. However, the severity of the air pollution left few
alternatives for measures which would be adequate to accomplish the
program requirements.
Phase I Measures (Recommended):
1. Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls - It is evident that as
exhaust hydrocarbon emissions are more stringently controlled, the per-
centage contribution of hydrocarbon emissions from evaporative losses due
to normal gasoline handling and transfer operations will increase signifi-
cantly. Therefore, it is recommended that controls be required to either
prevent or capture these vapor losses before escaping to the atmosphere.
Control systems for certain transfer operations are presently available
and should be installed as quickly as possible -- bulk terminals, under-
ground storage tanks. Implementation of this measure should result in a
reduction of reactive hydrocarbons of approximately 5.4 tons per day in
1975 andJ)J3 tons per day by 1977.
2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - Spurred in part by their
contribution to the air pollution problem, the paint and varnish industry
has for some time been engaged in research and development of less
polluting surface coating formulations. Examples of new formulations
entering these markets are water-based or high solids content products.
It has been estimated by representatives in the industry that significant
inroads can be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute less reactive sur-
face coatings for certain applications. Implementation of such a measure
is estimated to eliminate about 0.2 and 0.4 tons per day of reactive
hydrocarbons by 1975 and 1977, respectively.
125
-------
3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - Certain large dry cleaning plants continue
to use reactive petroleum solvents in their normal operations. In these
plants, it is possible to install activated carbon adsorption systems to
control solvent vapors. Implementation of this measure should result in
approximately 0.3 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons being eliminated
by 1975 and 1977.
4. Degreaser Substitution - In areas with acute air pollution, substitu-
tion of less reactive solvents for presently used degreaser solvents is a
control measure which can readily be implemented. Widespread institution
of this control measure should result in approximately 0.4 tons of
reactive hydrocarbons being removed from the atmosphere by 1975 and 0.5
tons per day by 1977.
5. Burning Regulation - Both current and proposed Air Resources Board
regulations for backyard, agricultural, and lumber industry incineration
practices are aimed at either restricting incineration or requiring more
efficient burning practices. It is estimated that such regulations will
result in a reduction from baseline year emissions of 0.4 tons per day of
reactive hydrocarbons by 1975 and 0.3 tons per day by 1977.
6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - In an attempt to derive the full
benefit from both new and used car emission controls, it is recommended
that a mandatory annual inspection/maintenance program be established.
Initially, to minimize many of the administrative and technical problems
associated with instituting such a program, it is recommended that an
idle emissions test only be required at the state owned and operated test
facilities. After the program has been operative for several years and
most of the administrative details adequately worked out, it is recommended
that a loaded emissions testing program be instituted by upgrading the
testing facilities with the necessary additional equipment and personnel.
Implementation of this two stage program should result in 0.8 tons per day
of reactive hydrocarbons being eliminated by 1975. In 1977, with the im-
plementation of a loaded emissions test approximately 1.5 tons per day of
reactive hydrocarbon can be removed from the atmosphere.
7. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - The California Air Resources Board
has been and is currently evaluating catalytic converters as a retrofit
126
-------
for pre-1974 vehicles. Preliminary data indicate that large emission
reductions are possible with these devices. The CARB has proposed wide-
spread use of this retrofit as a measure for meeting the NAAQS, even
though questions relating to the availability of lead free fuel and the
overall applicability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles remain
unresolved. Catalysts developed to date require the use of lead-free
gasoline to prevent poisoning of the catalytic element. It remains to
be seen what percentage of the older vehicles can operate satisfactorily
on lead-free gasoline. Assuming portions of the 1970-1974 and 1966-1969
vehicles can be retrofitted with catalytic converters, it is estimated a
reduction of 2.7 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons can be achieved by
1975 and 2.9 tons per day by 1977.
8. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - The California Air Resources Board has
accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon and oxides of nitrogen
emissions from 1955-1965 vehicles. These devices have thus far been re-
quired only in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins.
The devices are essentially a vacuum spark advance disconnect (VSAD) with
a thermal override switch to prevent overheating, or an electronic ignition
system. Implementation of this measure should reduce reactive hydrocarbon
emissions by 0.6 tons per day in 1975 and 0.4 tons per day in 1977.
9. Mass Transit - Actually three measures under the heading of mass
transit are recommended for implementation in San Joaquin County: Improved
Public Transit, Increased Car Pooling, and Parking Control.
Improved Public Transit - To increase public transit use through
greater frequency of service, such as 10-15 minute headways, and
more complete coverage, it is recommended that the present bus
system be greatly expanded. Assuming that this will be possible
by capital grants and allowance of a greater percentage of SB325
for operating expenditures, some estimate can be made as to what
this would do to the total VMT in the region. If ridership is
tripled by 1980, VMT will be reduced by 29,800. This is a 0.3
percent reduction in 1980 county VMT.
Increased Car Pooling - If, through incentives, car pool matching,
and an energetic public information program, car pooling can reduce
127
-------
work trips by 50 percent, daily VMT will be reduced by 14,770 in
1980. This corresponds to a 0.2 percent reduction of the projected
VMT in San Joaquin County.
t Parking Control - A control measure of limiting construction of
additional long-term parking spaces along with increased long-term
parking rates should help to somewhat decrease exclusive use of
private automobiles for work trips to the CBD. The measure will
require increased enforcement of parking time limits in short-term
parking locations as well as prohibition of meter feeding by all-
day parkers. The result will be a reduction of 7000 in daily VMT
in 1980, corresponding to a decrease of 0.1 percent of the pro-
jected total in San Joaquin County.
In summary, implementation of a series of mass transit improvements
plus incentives to discourage the private use of the automobile will result
in very modest VMT reductions by 1975-1977. Furthermore, these improvements
will have negligible impact on hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions in
1975 and 1977.
Phase II Measures (If Demonstratably Warranted):
1. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Application of the Phase I
control measures on organic solvent uses will result in significant hydro-
carbon emission reductions. However, if warranted, it appears that additional
reductions may be achievable. These additional reductions will be increas-
ingly difficult to obtain since the remaining emissions are either under
tight control already or the sources are very minor and diffuse, making them
difficult to bring under control. Examples of this latter category are
organic solvent uses in printing operations, pharmaceutical uses, insecticide/
pesticide applications, rubber tire manufacturing, plastic and putty manu-
facturing, etc. Individually, the sources are minor; in their composite they
are presently a significant uncontrolled source category. No reductions are
claimed from possible controls from these sources in this analysis. As an
alternative, however, it is certainly recommended that a closer examination
be made of these minor polluters.
2. Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - As shown previously,
uncontrolled motorcycle emissions are projected to be among the highest
128
-------
of any motor vehicle type on a grams per mile basis. Their overall
contribution to the pollution problem has been minor due to the relatively
low number of vehicles and annual mileages accumulated. However, as the
number of motorcycles increases (uncontrolled) and as more controls are
imposed on light and heavy duty vehicles, their emission contribution will
become more significant. Two-stroke motorcycles, especially, are notori-
ously high emitters. In view of the projected importance of this source
category, a ban on motorcycles during the summer months when smog is most
intense, is a possible control measure. Part of the rationale for this
control is that motorcycles are used primarily for recreational purposes,
rather than for essential trip-making. A ban on motorcycles during the
smog season is estimated to eliminate 0.9 tons of reactive hydrocarbons
in 1975 and 1.0 tons in 1977.
3. Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance. Catalytic Converter, and
Evaporative Retrofit - For essentially the same reasons outlined under
light duty vehicles, mandatory inspection/maintenance for heavy duty
vehicles can be an effective control measure. Limited test data is
available and has demonstrated its feasibility and effectiveness as a
control measure.
Similarly, a limited amount of data exists demonstrating the effec-
tiveness and feasibility of heavy duty catalytic converter and evaporative
retrofits as potential control measures. More extensive field testing is
necessary, however, before widespread implementation of these measures can
be warranted. It is estimated about 1.3 tons per day of reactive hydro-
carbons could be eliminated with these three measures by 1975 and 1977.
4. Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit - Still another retrofit being
considered for light duty vehicles (pre-1970) is an evaporative control
device. The CARB is currently investigating the feasibility of this type
of device and if demonstrated effective, they may advocate its use. Others
have pointed to the need for such controls but actual working prototypes
and field testing data are limited at this time. The technical obstacles
appear to be impeding widespread application of this control measure. Also,
since the device is to be used on pre-1970 vehicles, its effectiveness
decreases with time due to normal attrition of vehicles which can be retro-
fitted with such devices. Nevertheless, if all the difficulties with this
129
-------
controlcan be eliminated, it is estimated 2.2 tons per day of reactive
hydrocarbons can be reduced in 1975 and 1.5 tons per day in 1977.
5. VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing - As a last resort type con-
trol , or after implementation of all Phase I measures, additional
reductions can be achieved by a program to reduce vehicle miles travelled
(VMT) through gasoline rationing. In light of recent publicity declaring
gasoline shortages and/or the energy crises, the public appears to be
ready to accept a modest level of fuel rationing. Rationing should be
viewed strictly as an interim control to achieve modest reductions.
Attempts to impose large scale rationing upon the public will result in
numerous undesirable consequences. The effectiveness of gasoline ration-
ing decreases as vehicular exhaust emission characteristics decrease. In
fact, if massive rationing is contemplated, the value of extensive retro-
fitting programs becomes somewhat questionable. As the last measure to be
implemented, it appears that, while no VMT reduction of light duty vehicles
is necessary for attainment of the oxidant standard by 1977 if Measures 1-5
in Phase II are imposed, a 9.9 percent VMT reduction would be required if
only the Phase I measures were implemented (Petroleum Marketing Effect
included).
130
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5.0 STRATEGY FOR FRESNO COUNTY
In this section is discussed the air pollution control strategy
which has been developed for application in Fresno County. Section 5.1
presents the baseline data and includes the base year (1970) air quality,
emissions, and transportation data and projected emissions and transporta-
tion data (without additional controls) to 1980. Section 5.2 describes
how the proposed strategy was developed and provides estimates of the
effectiveness of each measure. Section 5.3 summarizes the strategy and
indicates the expected emission reductions due to each measure when applied
in Fresno County.
5.1 BASELINE DATA
For the purpose of this study, it has been assumed that the air
quality in Fresno County is directly related to the emissions in Fresno
County and that atmospheric transport of air pollutants from other areas
does not significantly influence county air quality. This appears to be
a reasonable assumption, according to available data. This data is
presented in 5.1.1 and indicates that the principal pollutants in this
study -- hydrocarbons and oxidant -- obey the classical temporal relation-
ship (hydrocarbon concentrations peak between 6 AM and 9 AM and oxidant
peaks near 12 noon). If atmospheric transport were a significant problem,
it is likely that these peaks would occur at other times in the day. Thus,
emissions data is presented in Section 5.1.2 in the form of an inventory
for Fresno County, and transportation data in 5.1.3 is presented for the
county only.
5.1.1 Air Quality
Figure 5-1 compares the diurnal variation of total oxidant and total
hydrocarbon one-hour average concentrations in Fresno on 22 August 1970.
(The base year used in this study for Fresno is 1970.) The oxidant peak
occurred at noon on this date, and this is typical for the air basin. The
hydrocarbon one-hour average concentration seems to have remained constant
at 3 ppm through the morning and at 2 ppm through the afternoon. Although
the lower value in the afternoon is to be expected because of the higher
131
-------
probability of wind during summer afternoons, the hydrocarbon data does not
reflect traffic peaks in either the morning or the afternoon. Possible
reasons for this could be that there was no inversion, that it was windy,
or that the sampling equipment malfunctioned.
Carbon monoxide data has been plotted on Figure 5-2 for the dates of
maximum 8-hour average concentration in 1970, 1971, and 1972. The data
indicates CO peaks near the periods of maximum traffic, as is to be
expected. The atmospheric conditions do not seem to have been parti-
cularly stable on either date, other than during very brief periods.
The monthly averages of the maximum daily one-hour average
atmospheric concentrations of total oxidant and carbon monoxide in Fresno
are shown in Figure 5-3. The data plotted in this figure is very similar
in nature and character to that plotted for Stockton in Section 4.1 of
this report. The highest one-hour average oxidant concentrations tend to
occur in the summer and fall, when there is more sunlight and stronger
solar radiation. Carbon monoxide concentrations are generally higher in
the fall and winter, when atmospheric conditions are more stable, and,
therefore, more conducive to the retention of emitted pollutants in the
atmosphere. Meteorology is very similar in all the San Joaquin Valley
cities and has been discussed in Section 4.1.
132
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.24
.20
.16
Q-
Q.
C
o
£.12
+J
c
Ol
o
c
o
o
.04
1 2
E
Q.
Q.
c
QJ
U
C
o
o
J_
12
Midnight
4
am
8
am
12
Moon
4
pm
8
pm
11
pm
Figure _5-l . Comparison of Total Oxidant and Total
Hydrocarbon" Concentrations in Fresno on 22 August 1970.
Notes: 1. All data shown are one-hour average concentrations.
2. The maximum one-hour average oxidant concentration
for Fresno in 1970 occurred on 22 August (.21 ppm).
3. Oxidant data was taken at the Cedar Street station;
Hydrocarbon data at the Courthouse.
Legend: Total Hydrocarbon
Total Oxidant
Source: Fresno County APCD
133
-------
24 r
20 -
1.16
Q.
C
o
CO
§12
E
O
O
O
o
8 -
30 Dec
i 1972
6 Nov
1971
19 Oct
1970
12
Midnight
4
am
8
am
12
Noon
4
pm
8
pm
11
pm
Figure 5-2 . Diurnal Variation of One-Hour Average
Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in Fresno on Dates of
Maximum Eight-Hour Average Concentration for Each Year.
Note: All readings shown were taken at the Fresno
Courthouse.
Source: Fresno County APCD
134
-------
.15
Q.
Q.
C
IO
TJ
X
o
(O
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o
.10-
05-
15
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-10
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X
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c
o
- 5
o
.0
(O
Figure 5-3. Monthly Averages of Maximum Hourly Averages
for Total Oxidant and Carbon Monoxide in Fresno in 1970.
Notes: Oxidant was measured at the Cedar Street Station.
Carbon monoxide was measured at the Courthouse (roof)
Legend:
Total Oxidant
Carbon Monoxide
Source: California Air Resources Board
135
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5.1.2 Emission Inventory
Table 5-1 'presents the baseline emission inventory for Fresno
County. Average tons per day emissions are given for total hydrocarbons
(THC), reactive hydrocarbons (RHC), notrogen oxides (NO ), and carbon
/\
monoxide (CO). Subdivisions are made according to source class,
(stationary, aircraft, and motor vehicle), and within source class
according to specific source type.
The baseline consists of the base year, (1970), and projections
through 1975, 1977, and 1980 for a "nominal control strategy." An
unambiguous definition of "nominal control strategy" is not readily
apparent; control regulations are in a state of rapid flux. The decision
as to what controls enter the baseline inventory is thus somewhat arbitrary.
The important point in constructing the baseline is to carefully delineate
the assumed, nomfnal controls. In the present study, the baseline case
assumes the following control strategy:
a. For stationary sources, the baseline control is the degree
of control existing in the base year (1970).
b. For aircraft, the baseline is the present Federal control
program, (burner-can retrofit and emission standards for
future new engines).
c. For heavy duty motor vehicles and diesels,.the baseline
consists of the present Federal control program. Motorcycles
have no controls. For light duty vehicles, the present
California/Federal new car controls and the present California
ARB retrofit program (exhaust devices for 1966-70 vehicles),
are assumed.
To emphasize the relative significance of the two or three major
sources of air pollution in Fresno County, pie charts have been constructed
for the 1970 base year inventory. Figure 5-4 presents these charts,
giving percent of base year emissions attributable to each source category.
Figure 5-4 indicates that for each pollutant, motor vehicles (light duty,
heavy duty, diesels, and motorcycles) were the major contributors in 1970.
Other significant sources of RHC were petroleum marketing and organic
solvent use. Fuel combustion in the residential-commercial sector is a
significant contributor of NO .
/\
136
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TABLE 5-1. FRESNO COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1970, 1975, 1977, and 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Production
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Other:
Chemical , Mineral ,
and Metal lurgical
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1970
THC
7.3
6.4
4.2
4.3
12.0
8.0
3.2
21.0
1.5
0.8
68.7
1.1
41.0
1.9
0.8
1.1
114.6
RHC
-
6.0
0.8
0.9
2.4
1.0
0.3
2.2
-
-
13.6
1.0
34.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
52.2
NOX
4.0
0.6
-
-
-
0.6 '
0.3
0.8
8.9
-
15.2
0.5
31.2
1.9
7.4
-
56.2
CO
-
-
-
_
-
14
22
34
3
-
73
8
231
10
5
4
331
1975
THC
5.1
7.2
4.4
4.7
13.0
8.5
2.9
25.0
1.6
1.2
73.6
1.2
21.9
2.4
1.1
1.7
101.9
RHC
-
6.8
0.9
0.9
2.6
1.0
0.3
2.5
-
-
15.0
1.1
17.7
2.0
1.1
1.5
38.4
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
_
-
0.6
0.3
1.0
9.4
-
14.8
0.6
26.0
2.6
10.4
-
54.4
CO
-
-
, -
__
-
15
21
40
3
-
79
10
141
15
6
6
257
1977
THC
5.1
7.5
4.6
4.8
13.0
8.7
3.5
27.0
1.6
1.4
77.2
1.2
15.5
2.4
1.1
1.9
99.3
RHC
-
7.1
0.9
1.0
2.6
1.0
0.2
2.7
_
.
15.5
1.1
12.3
1.9
1.1
1.7
33.6
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
_
-
0.7
0.2
1.2
9.7
-
15.3
0.7
19.8
2.5
9.6
-
47.9
CO
-
-
-
_
-
15
24
43
3
-
85
11
97
16
6
7
222
1980
THC
5.1
8.2
4.8
5.2
14.0
9.1
3.8
30.0
1.7
1.7
83.6
1.2
9.4
2.3
1.0
2.0
99.5
RHC
-
7.7
1.0
1.0
2.8
1.1
0.3
3.0
_
_
16.9
1.1
7.3
1.9
1.0
1.8
30.0
NOX
2.8
0.8
-
_
-
0.7
0.3
1.5
10.2
_
16.3
0.8
11.9
2.4
10.2
-
41.6
CO
-
-
-
_
-
16
25
47
3
.
91
11
59
17
5
7
190
CO
-------
Petroleum Marketing, 11.5% '
Organic Solvent Users, 7.8%
Other, 8.7%
Motor Vehicles, 72.0%
Agriculture, 10.3%
Other, 7.6%
Lumber Industry, 6.6%
Motor Vehicles, 75.5%
Fuel Combustion, 15.8%
Petroleum Production
and Marketing, 8.2%
Other, 3.9%
Motor Vehicles, 72.1%
Reactive Hydrocarbons
52.2 tons/day
Carbon Monoxide
331 tons/day
Nitrogen Oxides
56.2 tons/day
Figure 5-4. Percentage of Emissions from Major Source Categories
in Fresno County in 1970
138
-------
TABLE 5-2
RELATIVE EMISSIONS BY MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORIES
IN FRESNO COUNTY IN 1970
(Indicated as % of Total Emission of Reactive Hydrocarbon,
Carbon Monoxide, and Nitrogen Oxides)
Petroleum
Production
Marketing
Organic Solvent Users
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning and Degreasing
Other
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion
Subtotal - Stationary Sources
Aircraft
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Gasoline powered
Diesel powered
Motorcycles
Subtotal - Mobile Sources
TOTAL
RHC
0
11.5
1.5
1.7
4.6
1.9
0.6
4.2
0
26.1
1.9
65.5
3.1
1.5
1.9
73.9
100.0
CO
0
0
0
0
0
4.2
6.6
10.3
0.9
27.0
2.4
69.8
3.0
1.5
1.2
77.9
100.0
NOV
X
7.1
1.1
0
0
0
1.1
0.5
1.4
15.8
22.1
0.9
55.6
3.4
13.2
0
73.0
100.0
139
-------
Table 5-2 gives a more detailed breakdown of relative source
emissions in the base year. It is evident that light duty vehicles, (LDMV),
account for the largest part of motor vehicle emissions, and that "other"
constitutes the most significant part of organic solvent emissions.
Table 5-2 indicates that the relative importance of various sources
changes considerably in the 1970's under the assumed baseline controls.
The new car and retrofit control programs greatly reduce emissions from
LDMV's. For this decade, the present Federal control strategy essentially
just "holds the line" on aircraft, HDMV, and diesel emissions. With no
further control assumed in the baseline, stationary source emissions
continue to expand as activity in the region grows.
The specific assumptions and calculations used to construct the
baseline inventory are presented in Sections 5.1.2.1, 5.1.2.2, and 5.1.2.3
below. These deal with the stationary source, aircraft, and motor vehicle
source classes, respectively. They present the details on base year data,
reactivity assumptions, nominal controls, and projection techniques. The
limitations of the assumptions and analysis are also thoroughly discussed.
5.1.2.1 Stationary Sources
Baseline Stationary Source Inventory
The base year, Fresno County, stationary source inventory for THC,
NO , and CO is derived from the 1970 California ARB inventory for sta-
A
tionary sources in Fresno County (67). The only difference between the two
inventories involves hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions for petroleum
marketing emissions.
Table 5-3 presents the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions used in
the stationary source inventory. For each stationary source except
petroleum marketing, 1970 ARB assumptions on hydrocarbon reactivity are
used. These in turn, are based on L.A. County APCD reactivity figures.
According to recent EPA specifications, (43) petroleum marketing emissions
were taken as 93% reactive, (whereas the ARB uses a 45% reactivity).
Hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions are very critical to oxidant control
strategies. Unfortunately, they are among the least reliable values used
here. The reactivity assumptions will be discussed in more detail in the
next section, dealing with limitations of the assumptions and analysis.
140
-------
TABLE 5-3. REACTIVITY ASSUMPTIONS FOR STATIONARY SOURCES
Stationary Source
Petroleum Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Burning:
Incineration
Agriculture
Lumber
Other:
Reactivity
0%
\
f 93%
20%
20% .
20%
20%
12%
10%
10%
0%
Reference
1970 ARE (L.A. APCD)
EPA
1970 ARB (L.A. APCD)
n n n
n n n
M M n
n n n
n n n
n n n
To complete the baseline stationary source inventory, the 1970
inventory is projected to 1975, 1977, and 1980 under the basic assumption
that the degree of emission control existing in 1971 is preserved. The
only stationary source control enforced in Fresno County for HC, CO, or
NO emissions in 1971 involved restrictions on incineration. Backyard
/\
incinerators and most types of open burning were banned by these
restrictions.
The growth rate assumptions in the baseline inventory varied from
source to source. They are summarized in Table 5-4. For most sources
projected growth was assumed proportional to population growth. For
certain industries which are expanding at rates significantly different
from population growth rates, emissions were projected according to
expected growth in constant dollar earnings for those industries. The
choice of constant dollar earnings as a growth indicator was arbitrary.
Emissions for these industries could also have been taken as proportional
to production. However, production type projections make no allowance
for technological improvements. Constant dollar earnings grow more
slowly than production and thus have the right sign to allow for techno-
logical process changes. A third type of assumption was used for
141
-------
petroleum marketing emissions. Growth was taken as proportional to
growth in gallons sold. The technical aspects of the problem indicate
that, for given degree of control, this should be a very realistic
assumption.
TABLE 5-4 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS FOR STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSIONS
Source
Petroleum Production
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Incineration
Agricultural Burning
Lumber Burning
Fuel Comb. -- Res.,
Com., & Ind.
Other: Min., Chem.,
Lumber, Mett. & Pet.
Growth Assumption
Growth as earnings (1)
Growth according to projected gasoline
sales, (3).
Growth as population (4)
Growth as population (4)
Growth as.manufacturing (1)
Growth as population (4)
Growth as population (4)
Growth as earnings (1)
Growth as earnings (1)
Growth as population (4)
Growth as industry specific earnings (1)
1. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Population and Economic Activity in the United
States and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, July, 1972.
2. Personal communications with refinery representatives and L.A.
County APCD Official.
3. TRW Regression Model.
4. Population Research Unit, Department of Finance, Provisional
Projections of California Counties to 2000, September 15, 1971.
Limitations of the Analysis
Since the 1970 California ARB inventory served as the foundation for
the stationary source 1970 base year emission estimates in this study, the
results presented here are subject to any limitations of that inventory.
142
-------
These limitations concern the approximations inherent in emission
factors, source usage data, and source number estimates. There is insuf-
ficient time in this study to review in detail all of these approximations.
Suffice it to note that for THC, NO , and CO emissions from stationary
/\
sources, none of the ARB inventory figures deviated way out of line from
what would be expected by comparison with other regions, and no major
inconsistencies appeared.
The least reliable aspects of the base year and projected baseline
stationary source inventories are the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions.
Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely complex and difficult issue.
Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according to the percent
of the mixture that can possibly react, 'or alternatively, according to
some scale which assigns weights to individual compounds. This ranking
can be based on HC consumption rate, N02 formation rate, ozone levels, or
eye irritation production. The ranking depends on the time allowed for
reactions to occur as well as on ratios of the input reactants (HC and
NOX).
As was noted in Table 5-3, the present study has used the 1970
California ARB emission inventory reactivity assumptions for all stationary
sources except petroleum marketing. For petroleum marketing, (as well as
mobile sources), recent EPA reactivity results were employed. The ARB
reactivity scale is founded upon Los Angeles County APCD smog chamber
experiments. The EPA scale is based on experiments and conclusions by
Altshuller. These two scales yield very different estimates of reactivity.
For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive according to the ARB,
is 99% reactive according to the EPA. Evaporated gasoline, considered 45%
reactive by the ARB, is 93% reactive according to the EPA. It is a
troublesome inconsistency in this study that ARB estimates are used for
all but one stationary source, (yielding an average reactivity of less
than 20% for these sources), while EPA assumptions are used for petroleum
marketing, (93% reactivity), and mobile sources (all of high reactivity).
This has been done, however, so as to include the most recent data (EPA
reactivity figures), even though corresponding data were unavailable for
most stationary sources.
143
-------
An illustration of how confusing and arbitrary reactivity assumptions
can be is provided by past inconsistencies in the treatment of organic
solvent reactivity. In the 1970 ARB inventory and the original California
Implementation Plan (40), the ARB assumed a 20% reactivity for each
major class of solvent use (surface coating, dry cleaning, degreasing, and
"other") and for each county in the San Francisco, Sacramento, and San
Joaquin regional areas. This reactivity was based on L.A. County APCD
estimates for "post-rule 66" emissions. However, although San Francisco
had implemented such a rule by 1970, certain other counties had not.
Thus, 20% reactivity was used whether or not a county had adopted Rule 66.
Fortunately, this may not be an extremely bad assumption. For surface
coatings, meeting Rule 66 for the Los Angeles and San Francisco regions
has meant, in practice, that it is met for other California regions,
(nearly all surface coatings supplied to these regions are the same as
supplied to Los Angeles and San Francisco (76)). Reactivities of
other organic solvents should also be somewhat uniform throughout
California.
The projected growth assumptions made here are also subject to some
question. Certain stationary source emissions were assumed to grow as
population, others were assumed to grow as industry specific earnings,
and petroleum marketing emissions were assumed to grow as gasoline sales.
None of these is likely to be exactly right. However, petroleum
marketing is the dominant stationary source for the most significant
pollutant, (RHC), and the growth assumption (as sales) for that source
should be fairly'accurate. Other growth assumptions, though less exact,
apply to less significant sources, and control strategy conclusions should
be insensitive to errors in those assumptions.
144
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5.1.2.2 Aircraft
Table 5-5 summarizes aircraft emissions in Fresno County for the base
year 1970 and projected emission levels for 1975, 1977, and 1980.
Emissions are divided into three categoriescommercial air carrier,
non-commercial aviation, and military air bases. Non-commercial aviation
includes general aviation, air taxi, and military operations at civilian
airports. THC, CO, and NO ars shown to increase in every projected year.
/\
TABLE 5-5
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS IN FRESNO COUNTY
BY OPERATIONS TYPE
Commercial
A1r Carrier
Non-Commercial
Aviation (a)
Military Air
Base Operations
Total Emissions
Total Hydrocarbons
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.09 0.10 0.12 0.12
0.13 0.18 0.19 0.20
0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92
1.14 1.20 1.23 1.24
Carbon Monoxide
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.34 0.45 0.53 0.55
3.86 5.36 5.91 6.18
4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39
8.59 10.20 10.83 11.12
Nitrogen Oxides
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.20 0.26 0.34 0.42
0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
0.31 ' 0.31 0.31 0.31
.53 .59 .68 .76
8 Includes general aviation, air taxi, and military operations at civilian airports.
Reactive hydrocarbons are estimated to comprise 90% of total hydro-
carbons emitted by aircraft (both turbine-powered and piston-powered) and
are shown in Table 5-6.
TABLE 5-6. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM AIRCRAFT
IN FRESNO COUNTY
Year
Emissions (tons/day)
1971
1.03
1975
1.08
1977
1.11
1980
1.12
145
-------
The values in Table 5-5 were developed with the use of aircraft opera-
tions data (both historical and projected) published by the Federal
Aviation Administration. The operations data was translated into emission
estimates with the use of emission factors published by the EPA. These
data and calculations are discussed in detail in Appendix C.
The analysis and prediction of aircraft emissions is limited in two
important areas. The first involves the projection of aircraft activity
up to ten years in the future. These are normally significant errors in
such predictions, due to unforeseeable fluctuations in the economy and
the labor market. In fact, no estimates are made for changes in aircraft
operations at military air bases, since trends in these operations are
almost totally related to unpredictable circumstances. Furthermore,
national projections were used in this study, and these may not be
completely applicable to conditions in Fresno County.
The second limitation of the analysis involves the use of the air-
craft emission factors. These factors were derived by EPA from test data
describing the emission rates of particular types of aircraft engines at
thrust settings typical of each mode of the Landing Takeoff (LTO) Cycle.
In cases where the average time-in-mode for each aircraft engine type is
known for an airport, this data can be used directly to estimate yearly
emissions. Unfortunately, the time-in-mode is not known for any airport
in this study. Anticipating such situations, EPA assumed a particular
set of times-in-mode as typical of the worst-case condition at a large
metropolitan airport and assumed an engine type typical of each aircraft
class--Jumbo Jet, Long-range Jet, Medium-range Jet, etc. Emission
factors were than calculated as an emission rate per LTO for each class.
Although this is the best one can do considering the poor availability of
data, this method has several inherent weaknesses:
1. The worst-case time-in-mode is not truly representative
of the yearly average operation cycles at any airport.
2. The worst-case time-in-mode is not typical of most
airports in Fresno County; in fact, no airport in this
county can be labeled a large metropolitan airport.
146
-------
Although the engine types chosen as typical of particular
aircraft classes may be used on the majority of craft
within the class, the actual emission rates can vary
significantly, just as in the case of motor vehicles,
both within the engine type chosen for each class and
between this engine type and others used on similar
aircraft in the class.
147
-------
5.1.2.3 Motor Vehicles
Motor vehicles constitute the most substantial source of air contami-
nants in Fresno County. As such, the development and assessment of
transportation control plans depends heavily on the ability to quantify
air pollutants arising from motor vehicle operations. The first section
provides a discussion of the motor vehicle baseline emission inventory,
quantified for the base year and projected years, under the applicable
baseline control conditions. The second section is a discussion of
limitations and constraints inherent in the current state-of-the-art for
motor vehicle emission inventory determination.
Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light-duty
vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline-powered vehicles, heavy-duty diesel vehicles,
and motorcycles. Emissions from these vehicle types were estimated by
determining the annual mileage by model distribution of the region's
vehicle population, the overall mileage and average speed of vehicles in
the region, and then applying appropriate emission and reactivity factors
which are attributable to the various vehicle age classifications.
Characterization of the Fresno County vehicle populations into the
pertinent classes was accomplished by manipulation of data obtained from
the State Department of Motor Vehicles, the California Highway Patrol,
the State Air Resources Board, and the Division of Highways. Hydrocarbon,
carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides emission factors were obtained from
reference (45) and from direct communication with the Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, Region IX Office.
The quantification of reactive hydrocarbons assumes foremost importance
in the total emission inventory, and in the development of prospective
pollution control plans. It is assumed there is a one-to-one relationship
between the quantity of reactive hydrocarbon emitted to the atmosphere and
atmospheric oxidant concentration. For example, required 62% oxidant roll-
back being sought for Fresno County is accomplished by a 62% rollback in
reactive hydrocarbon emissions.
148
-------
The ranking of hydrocarbon reactivity is a controversial issue, and
has been the subject of several studies, which when compared, differ
widely in their resultant conclusions. In resolving the difficulties
presented in selecting reactivity factors for this study, TRW was pro-
vided with guidelines from the Environmental Protection Agency. The
reactivity values, in terms of the emitter type, are as follows:
gasoline evaporative emissions
(for all vehicles) .93
light-duty vehicle exhaust .77
heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
exhaust .79
heavy-duty diesel vehicle
exhaust .99
motorcycles (2-stroke) .96
motorcycles (4-stroke) .86
The numerical calculations required for estimation of motor vehicle
emissions are carried out with the use of a computer program. The method-
ology for these calculations is discussed in Appendix .
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates of reactive hydrocarbons
are shown in Table 5-7.
TABLE 5-7
BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE
REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
FRESNO COUNTY
Type of
Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel)
Motorcycle (2 Stroke)
Motorcycle (4 Stroke)
TOTAL
% Reduction (Fraction
of Base Year)
1970
(Base Year)
34.2
1.6
0.8
0.7
0.3
37.6
1975
17.7
2.0
1.1
1.1
0.4
22.3
40.69
1977
12.3
1.9
1.1
1.2
0.5
17.0
54.79
1980
7.3
1.9
1.0
1.3
0.5
12.0
68.09
149
-------
400,000
c
O
1o r^
-I-) i
O -r-
1970
1975
YEAR
1977
1980
Figure 5-5. Projected VMT and Vehicle Registration
for Fresno County
150
-------
GO
40.
35..
30-.
25-
20--
15--
LDV
HDGV
HDDV
I/////////I MOTORCYCLE (2 Stroke)
MOTORCYCLE (4 Stroke)
1970
1975
1977
1980
Figure 5-6. Relative Baseline Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
for the Vehicle Types, Fresno County
151
-------
Due to federal automobile standards imposed in 1975, and specific vehicle
controls required under the California Auto Emission Standards, vehicle
emissions are expected to decrease in future years. By 1975, motor
vehicle reactive hydrocarbon emissions in Fresno County will have de-
creased by 22% and by 1980, the expected reduction is 68%. Since motor
vehicle emissions constitute the main source of air pollution, it
appears some additional vehicle controls will be required to attain
the total emission rollback, and the 1975 Federal Air Quality Standards.
While the enforcement of 1975 Federal vehicle emission standards will
result in substantial reductions of atmospheric pollution, the full
benefit of this control is mitigated by the growth of the vehicle
population and the associated increase in total VMT. Projections for
motor vehicle registrations in future years were made, utilizing a
linear multiple regression analysis, (see Appendix F). In this
mathematical procedure, vehicle registration is determined by its
relationship to socio-economic variables (population and per capita
income) for which future gorwth has already been analyzed by other
reliable methods. Projections for daily vehicle miles driven in
Fresno County were available from transportation studies (2). Figure 1
shows the projections for light and heavy duty motor vehicles and for
total light duty and heavy duty vehicle miles traveled in Fresno County.
The projections devised independently, show very similar trends'. Due
to substantial growth rates of 39% in vehicle VMT, and 21% in vehicles,
from the base year to 1980, total vehicle emission reduction goals
are more difficult to attain.
Another factor mitigating the control of motor vehicle emissions is
the fact that heavy duty vehicles, and particularly motorcycles, are
not controlled to the same degree as light duty vehicles. From Figure 5-6
it can be seen that there is a substantial shift in the relative contri-
bution of the various vehicle types to the degradation of air quality
in future years. For example, motorcycle emissions in 1972 constituted
2.6% of all motor vehicle emissions in Fresno County while by 1980,
they are expected (with present strategy control plans) to account for
15% of all motor vehicle reactive hydrocarbon emissions. The increasing
prominence of the motorcycle in the overall projected pollution problem
152
-------
is enhanced further by the rapid growth rate (48% by 1980) expected for
this vehicle type (see Figure ).
Figure 5-7 demonstrates the relationship of emission control
trends expected between the various vehicle types. It can be seen that
motorcycles are the heaviest polluters per mile of travel, and that their
emissions are uncontrolled in the baseline projections. The effect of
exhaust control deterioration for older model vehicles, and traffic flow
patterns (speed adjustment factor) in the overall vehicle emission totals
is shown dramatically by comparison of the projected 1980 baseline total
hydrocarbon emissions per VMT value with the future (1976 and after)
Federal exhaust emission standards for new vehicles.
10-
1970
1975
1977
1980
* Emission factor = exhaust emission factor + evaporative & crankcase
emission factor.
Figure 5-7. Degree of Baseline Control for Various
Vehicle Types, Fresno County
153
-------
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates for carbon monoxide (CO)
and nitrogen oxides (NO ) are shown in Table 5-8. The table shows that
X
baseline control plans account for reductions in CO emissions which are
nearly equal to the reductions obtained for reactive hydrocarbons. These
reductions will result in the attainment of the Federal air quality
standards for CO in Fresno County. Nitrogen oxide emissions do not pose
an air quality problem in either the baseline projections, or the base
year itself.
TABLE 5-8. BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
FRESNO COUNTY
CARBON MONOXIDE (Tons/Day)
Type of
Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel )
Motorcycle (2 Stroke)
Motorcycle (4 Stroke)
TOTAL
% Reduction (Fraction
of Base Year)
Type of
Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel)
Motorcycle (2 Stroke)
Motorcycle (4 Stroke)
TOTAL
% Reduction (Fraction
of Base Year)
1970
(Base Year)
231
10
5
1.2
3.0
250.2
NITROGEN OXIDES
1970
(Base Year)
31.2
1.9
7.4
-
-
40.5
1975
141
15
6
1.9
4.0
167.9
32.9
(Tons/Day^
1975
26.0
2.6
10.4
-
-
39.0
3.7
1977
97
16
6
2.0
5,0
126
49.7
1977
19.8
2.5
9.6
-
-
31,9
21.23
1980
59
17
5
2.2
5.0
88.2
64.7
1980
11.9
2.4
10.2
-
-
24.5
39.51
154
-------
Limitations in the Analysis
The quantification of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles
in a specific region depends substantially on the availability of empirical
data characterizing emission rates as a function of various aspects of the
regional vehicle population and transportation patterns. Because vehicle
emission rates depend on such a great variety of factors (i.e., type of
vehicle, condition of vehicle, driver habits, traffic flow, climate,
vehicle load, etc.), an accurate functional determination of these rates
is extremely involved, if not impossible. Consequently, the notion of
overall, or "average" emission rate values, becomes a necessary expedient
in the quantification of motor vehicle air contaminants. In the light of
this analytical compromise, average emission data by vehicle model year
have been generated for a "representative" nationwide driving pattern
termed the 1972 Federal Certification Test Procedure, and a limited number
of "region specific" adjustment factors have been determined for applica-
tion to the basic emission factors when specific regional data (average
speed, altitude of region, gross weight of vehicle) is available to permit
this adjustment.
Substantial effort was exercised to obtain specific motor vehicle
information characterizing Fresno County such that a maximum number of
"region specific" adjustments could be made. Despite these adjustments,
it was recognized that the final determination of total motor vehicle
emissions involved a procedure containing several inherent limitations
which could cause misrepresentation of region-specific characteristics.
The least reliable aspect of the base year and projected baseline
motor vehicle pollutant source inventory concerns hydrocarbon reactivity
assumptions. Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely difficult and complex
issue. Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according to the
rate at which they react, the mixture that is potentially reactive, or
the products of reaction. The criterion for the ranking of hydrocarbon
reactivity is a controversial issue. The State Air Resources Board
reactivity scale is based on experiments performed in the Los Angeles
APCD smog chamber experiments. The Environment Protection Agency utilizes
a reactivity scale based on experiments by Altshuller. The two scales are
highly discrepant. For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive
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according to the ARB, is 99 percent reactive according to the EPA. Evapo-
rated gasoline, considered 50 percent reactive by the ARB, is 93 percent
reactive according to the EPA. Since the conventional oxidant rollback
procedure centers on the reduction of the reactive element of the total
hydrocarbon inventory, the uncertainty surrounding the reactivity scale
is probably the most significant limitation mitigating the calculation of
a meaningful air contaminant inventory.
The determination of total vehicular miles of travel (VMT) within a
specified region is best determined by transportation studies conducted in
the field. VMT may also be calculated based on vehicle registration and
annual vehicle mileage data for the region of study (the approach used by
State Air Resources Board), or based on total regional gas consumption
and vehicle gas mileage data. The latter approaches for calculating VMT
were expected to yield results in accord with the transportation study
figures, provided the regional characterization of vehicular travel used
in the analysis was representative of actual travel in the region
(i.e., the inflow vehicle characterization equal to outflow vehicle
characterization). A summary and comparison of the VMT determination as
portrayed in Figure 5-8 reveals that VMT determinations based on motor
vehicle data are lower than those VMT values determined by either total
regional gas consumption or transportation studies. This suggested fre-
quent through travel was being carried out through each of the regions. .
An examination of the regional transportation trip descriptions verified
a substantial portion of regional VMT was generated by traffic on major
highways passing through the areas (see Appendix B).
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10
I >>
o
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While there appears to be little question that transportation studies
yield the most reliable estimates of overall vehicular travel in the base
year, there is some question as to the accuracy of segregation of VMT in
terms of heavy duty and light duty vehicles, and in the projection of
these values to future years. The latter estimates involve reliance on
limited or conflicting data and as such have been subject to numerous
judgments in the analysis. These judgments involve the selection of
various conflicting studies projecting community growth parameters
(population, money earnings, vehicle registrations, highway and street
expansions).
Another inherent difficulty in calculating future motor vehicle
pollution arises from the unpredictability of consumer preferences. A
number of unforseen factors may cause considerable changes in future
vehicle buyer habits. For example, it is noted that substantial increases
in small car sales were recorded during the first half of 1973, due quite
possibly, to the rapidly rising gasoline prices and the increased emphasis
on energy shortages. In view of recent air quality emphasis, and the
subsequent mandatory pollution control retrofit programs now being dis-
cussed, speculations are strong that new and later model car sales will
increase significantly in the regions targeted for controls. For the
purpose of the analysis conducted here, consumer buying habits were con-
sidered fixed, and the vehicle model year distribution and annual mileage
by model distribution were assumed the same for all years in the estimates.
Another weakness in the emission inventory analysis concerns the
day-by-day variability of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles.
The analysis has included the assumption that pollutant emissions are
discharged at a relatively uniform rate throughout the year, when actually
there may be significant daily and seasonal variations which contribute to
a varying atmospheric oxidant potential. The availability of data and the
limited time available for this study did not permit a quantification of
the parameters associated with this issue.
The methodology utilized in calculating motor vehicle (see Appendix A)
emissions provides for an adjustment of the Federal Certification Test
Procedure emission rates on the basis of regional average vehicular speed.
The source of data for regional traffic speeds are transportation studies
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conducted by the Division of Highways (46). The average speeds are re-
ported in terms of "weighted average speeds," and are computed by
aggregating the product of VMT and arithmetic average speeds measured
for the various roads and highways throughout the region, the resultant
weighted average speed is therefore somewhat higher than the true arith-
metic average speed. Consequently the corresponding speed adjustment
factor for emissions is somewhat misleading. Due to an absence of other
vehicle speed data, the weighted average speeds were incorporated in the
analysis.
It is evident that the combined effect of the above limitations is
a basic uncertainty in the reliability of the emission inventory. A
further effect is the untenable status of pollution control strategies
which rely on the analysis. The assumptions and constraints contained
in the methodology are inherently unavoidable at this time. However,
the analysis presented herein is fully representative of current
methodology in motor vehicle emission estimation, and as such, represents
the most valid inventory update available at this time. Further study is
needed to qualify and improve the emission quantification procedures.
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5.1.3 Transportation
The Update of the 1954 Origin-Destination Study has been underway
since 1971 in the Fresno-Clovis Urbanized Area, and some of the pre-
liminary data on travel characteristics is available. The transportation
study area included approximately 70 percent of the county's 421,000
people in 1971. Portions of this data is used below.
Highway System
Route 99 is the major through route for the populated area, with
daily volumes from 22,000 in rural sections to 39,000 in. Fresno. Inter-
state 5 is the new major alternative north-south route presently under
construction through the western section of the county. Nhen completed,
this facility will carry most of the long-distance through trips, which
presently use Routes 99 and 101. A 1971 origin-destination survey showed
that of 12,746 auto-driver trips (59) passing through the Fresno-Clovis
urban area, 10,031 stayed on Route 99. Route 41 leads north to Yosemite
National Park, while Route 180 provides access to Kings Canyon and
Sequoia National Parks.
Total travel in the Fresno-Clovis urban area was just over tvK>
million daily vehicle miles of travel in 1970 (60). Of the countrywide
total of 5.9 million VMT on an average weekday, 6.5 percent of travel was
generated by heavy-duty vehicles.
Bus Transportation
The City of Fresno has operated local public transit system since
1961. Fresno Transit serves the City of Fresno and a limited number of
contiguous unincorporated areas. Two and one-half million passengers
are carried annually over 14 routes (61) The Fresno Downtown Association
operates a 20-passenger Fulton Mall tram line.
Interstate bus transportation is provided by the Western Greyhound
Lines and Continental Trailways. Coalinga Transit System operates an
intracity bus between the City of Coalinga and Fresno, and similar service
is provided between Fresno and other nearby towns by the Moyer Stages.
Anchor Bus Company serves primarily the military personnel at the
Lemoore Naval Air Station.
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Other Forms of Transportation
A relatively good railroad service is provided in this area by two
transcontinental railways --.Southern Pacific and Santa Fe Railways. As
a result, a significant number of railroad-oriented industries.such as
canneries and steel distribution plants have located in Fresno.
Fresno Air Terminal is the major airport in the area. Chandler
Field and a number of other general aviation and military airfields are
located in the county.
Travel Characteristics
The origin-destination study in 1971 showed that there were a total
of 706,926 driver trips (5) made in the Fresno-Clovis Study Area on an
average weekday. Of these, 85 percent were trips entirely within the
area, while less than two percent passed completely through the area.
Although 14.3 percent of dwelling units (5) had no vehicles available,
only 8,910, or one percent of total person trips, used public transit.
One-half of all dwelling units had two or more vehicles.
The study also showed that 70 percent of auto and light vehicle
trips (59) were taken by the driver alone. The predominant trip purpose
for auto driver trips was leisure-related travel, which made up 38.6
percent of the total (60). Trips related to earning a living made up
28.6 percent of the total.
In 1969, the downtown area of Fresno had 20,772 available parking
spaces (8) of which 9,489 were designated short-term and the remaining
10,923 long-term. The 1971 survey showed that only 2.7 percent of
drivers (5) in the total transportation study area had to pay for their
parking. Almost 80 percent, or 53,430, of first trips to work found
parking in free lots. Data supporting all values quoted are provided
in Appendix B.
Projections^
As part of the national needs study, Division of Highways has pre-
pared 1990 projections of VMT for Fresno County. Intermediate year
travel was estimated by straight line interpolation from these pro-
jections (see Table 5-9).
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Total travel in Fresno County is expected to increase by 42 percent
from 1970 to 1980, with most of the growth taking place within the
Fresno-Clovis urban area. Two new freeway facilities in Fresno will
have a very significant impact on travel patterns. Route 41 freeway
running north from Route 99 is expected to be completed as far as
Bui lard Avenue by 1980 and will provide much needed relief to Black-
stone Avenue. The Route 180 freeway section between Route 99 and
Route 41 should also be completed by 1980. Together, they will form
a freeway loop around the central area of Fresno. This will effectively
remove all through traffic from the city streets in the central area
and greatly increase the proportion of urban traffic using freeways.
By 1980 it is estimated that 32.5 percent of urban travel will be on
the freeway.
The average speeds for Fresno-Clovis freeways and expressways,
as well as arterial streets, are shown in Table 5-10. These were assumed
to be similar to speeds used for traffic assignment purposes in other
urban areas of similar size in California. Local street speed was also
assumed to average 15 miles per hour (mph). The speeds for the remainder
of Fresno County were assumed to be ten miles per hour faster than in the
urban area. Countywide average speeds were calculated from the weighted
average speed for each type of facility. A detailed summary of VMT
estimates and average speeds are given in Appendix B .
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TABLE 5-9. DAILY VMT IN FRESNO COUNTY
(Expressed in Thousands of Miles)
Base Year
(1970)
Light Duty Vehicles 5543
Heavy Duty Vehicles: Gasoline 138
Diesel 223
Total 361
1975
6614
198
321
519
1977
7043
218
353
571
1980
7688
258
418
676
TABLE 5-10. AVERAGE SPEEDS IN FRESNO COUNTY (1970)
By Street Type Average Speed
Freeway
Arterial
Local
By Vehicle Type
Light Duty Vehicle 36 mph
Heavy Duty Vehicle 46 mph
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5.2 CONTROL MEASURE ASSESSMENT
In Section 3.2 of this report, each of the air pollution control
measures to be considered were briefly described in terms of .its general
effectiveness, applicability, and feasibility. In this section (5.2),
each of the measures is evaluated for specific application in Fresno
County. The discussion includes the operation of the control and the
basis for the estimated emission reduction to be expected from the control.
Stationary source controls are discussed in Section 5.2.1, aircraft controls
in 5.2.2, and motor vehicle controls in 5.2.3.
5.2.1 Stationary Source Controls
The assessment of stationary source controls is very similar for the
three counties. This assessment has been carried out for San Joaquin
County with minor generalizations for Fresno and Kern Counties. The
reader is referred to Section 4.2.1.
5.2.2 Aircraft Controls
The emission reductions due to the modified taxi-idle procedure dis-
cussed in Section 3.2.2 of this report may be applied only on multi-engine
turbine-powered aircraft. Fresno Air terminal is the only airport in
Fresno County with a significant number of these operations. (Lemoore
Naval Air Station has turbine aircraft operations, but they are almost all
single-engine.) Emissions of reactive hydrocarbons is expected to be 0.02
tons/day from these aircraft in 1975 (see Appendix C). If this measure
were able to reduce these emissions by 50 percent, the resultant reduction
would be 0.01 tons/day. This corresponds to only 0.03 percent of the total
baseline emissions in 1975. This miniscule reduction does not appear to be
worth the effort, and the measure is not recommended for application in
San Joaquin County.
5.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls
Motor vehicle control measures considered for use in Fresno County
are of two basic types -- vehicle-oriented and system-oriented. Vehicle-
oriented controls are those which are applied directly to the individual
vehicles and include retrofit devices and inspection/maintenance. System-
oriented controls are those which involve users of transportation modes
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collectively.and include bus systems, carpools, parking controls, and so
on. Vehicle-oriented controls are discussed in 4.2.3.1 and system-
oriented controls in 4.2.3.2.
5.2.3.1 Vehicle-Oriented Controls
Vehicle-oriented controls have been discussed for the general case
in Section 3.2.3.1. Since, among the three counties considered in this
study, there are no differences which would preclude use of one of these
controls within their boundaries, further discussion would be redundant;
the reader is referred to Section 3.2.3.1.
5.2.3.2 System-Oriented Control Measures
Section 3.2 of this report contains a general discussion of various
alternative control measures. A more specific review of these measures
as they apply to Fresno County and especially to Fresno-Clovis urbanized
area is included in this section.
Improvement of public transit with the intent to divert some auto
drivers is applicable only in the Fresno-Clovis urbanized area where
presently approximately 42 percent of the countywide total daily VMT is
generated. Transit user base is small and historically it has been de-
clining although the decline appears to have leveled off. The present
users consist almost entirely of transit dependent population: elderly,
children and people without automobiles. With additional funds, especially
operating subsidies there is considerable room for improvement of the public
transit system. It is doubtful, however, that it would be possible to
achieve a significant diversion from autos to transit without direct con-
trols on automobile use.
There is no evidence of any extensive organized car pooling activity
in Fresno. There are only a handful of large employers with 1,000 employees
or more that have some potential for car pooling. Vehicle-free zones, such
as the downtown Fulton Mall, while useful for enhancing specific local
developments, would have no impact on areawide travel.
Parking control measures could be used to discourage some use of
automobiles for trips to the central area of Fresno. The difficulty with
this measure is that increased parking costs would only weaken the CBD
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by encouraging the growth of suburbs, thus furthering the undesirable trend.
The only trips subject to diversion to transit or car pooling are the non-
discretionary trips such as the work trip. On areawide basis, little could
be achieved since usually only a small percent of all driver trips are
destined for the CBD. Summaries of trips to the CBD from the 1971 0-D
survey were not available at the time of this study.
Exclusive bus/car pool lanes may have some possibilities in the
north-south corridor in the vicinity of Blackstone Avenue, where there is
congestion during peak periods. If, after Route 41 freeway is completed
north to Bui lard Avenue, traffic conditions are still such that buses
have difficulties maintaining headways, consideration should be given to
providing exclusive bus lanes or preemption of traffic signal green time
by buses. The Fresno-Clovis urbanized area is relatively small and
average trip length is around four miles. At these distances, it is
not feasible to provide substantial time savings by exclusive lanes.
A moratorium on further traffic improvements v/ould have no effect
on total travel. Drivers can tolerate extreme levels of congestion,
and the street system in Fresno is such that the point where people
would switch to transit would not be reached for a lonq time even if all
improvements "were stopped right now. For the same reason, imposition
of tolls on the freeways would not be effective in reducing VMT. Drivers
would simply use the local streets creating congestion and increasing
pollution. Four-day work week would reduce the work commute travel, but
recreational and other non-work related travel would more than replace
work travel.
Various tax disincentives might be considered since these could be
applied not only to the Fresno-Clovis urbanized area but also to Fresno
County. Special pollution tax charged on mileage of each motor vehicle
or on gasoline would tend to reduce auto usage. It would be extremely
regressive on limited income group, especially that portion which is
beyond the limits of transit service.
Gasoline rationing is a direct control measure which could be used
to achieve reduction in vehicle miles of travel. Direct regulatory con-
trols are authoritarian in nature and characterized by mandatory policy,
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rules and regulations. They leave little room for individual decision
making; consequently they are more predictable in the actual results. The
same goal which all other measures attempt to achieve by increased cost
and/or inconvenience -- reduction in VMT -- could be realized through
gasoline rationing.
A broad spectrum of control measures have been examined, ranging from
expanding alternative means of transportation, to indirect controls by
various pricing mechanisms, and finally to direct control of gasoline
supplies. It must be recognized that the effectiveness and predictability
of final results is related to directness of the control measure. Direct
controls which affect most people, however, are also the least acceptable
by the public and they arouse the broadest opposition.
In considering various transportation control measures, it is clear
that alternatives to private automobile must be provided before any far-
reaching restrictions can be imposed. Thus, public transit must be im-
proved and car pooling should be encouraged. Some controls, such as
vehicle free zones, tolls on freeways, four-day work week schedule and
moratorium on traffic improvements, would either have no effect on the
pollution problem in Fresno County or would only make matters worse.
Exclusive bus/car pool lanes or preemption of traffic signal green
time would not have any impact immediately, but these measures should be
planned for the time when the buses will make up a significant portion of
vehicular traffic in selected corridors. Parking control measures would
be effective only in the Fresno central area and should be limited to all-
day parking. The disincentives would be effective for the entire county,
but they would be regressive on low income groups and adequate alternative
means of transportation is not available outside the urban area. Finally,
direct control of VMT by gasoline rationing could be used to achieve the
desired level of reduction. Since 1971 survey showed that 38.6 percent
of total resident trips were related to leisure activities, moderate
rationing could be imposed without causing extreme economic hardships.
Improvement of Public Transit
Public transit is important to the transportation needs and air
quality in the region. The low density land use pattern, however, is not
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conducive to the efficient use of mass transit. Thus, the City had to
take over from a private operator in 1961. The system currently receives
an annual subsidy of $600,000 from property tax.
Fresno Transit operates a fleet of 48 buses, seven of which are
suitable only for charter service. The 14 routes radiate out from the
downtown area to various parts of the city and surrounding urbanized area.
Headways vary from 30 minutes to 60 minutes, depending on the time of the
day and the route. Basic adult fare is $0.25, with an additional zone
fare of five cents. Children's fare is $0.10, and special tour passes for
unlimited riding are available on Sundays and holidays for 50 cents.
Fresno Community Council is already studying means of improving
transit, including possibilities of using dial-a-bus, mini buses, etc.
Another important move would be the establishment of a regional transit
district encompassing the entire Fresno-Clovis urbanized area.
The public attitude survey conducted in conjunction with this study
showed that the most desired features in a transit system, rated higher
than such amenities as modern, air-conditioned buses, are the frequency of
service and the convenience of bus stop locations. It has also been ob-
served more frequently that the present standard of one-quarter mile
walking distance for transit service coverage is too great. Potential
transit users do not like to walk beyond one-eighth of a mile.
To achieve greater frequency of service, such as 10-15 minute headways
and to provide more complete coverage needed to attract regular auto users,
the present bus system would have to be greatly expanded. Assuming that
this will be possible by capital grants and allowance of greater percentage
of SB325 for operating expenditures, some estimate can be made as to what
this would do to the total VMT in the region.
The 1971 Origin-Destination Survey showed that only one percent of all
person trips in the Fresno-Clovis urbanized area were made by public transit.
No special analysis has been made of these transit trips.
A comprehensive study of public transportation in the Fresno
metropolitan area was carried out in 1969. The study projected that,
with reasonable expansion of transit service and no increases in fares,
patronage would increase 17 percent by 1975 and 50 percent by 1985.
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Assuming that by accelerated improvement of.transit system it would
be possible to double the present ridership by 1980, patronage would
increase by 8,300 daily transit users. Furthermore, if it is opti-
mistically assumed that all these would switch from automobiles which
in 1971 had an average occupancy of 1.39 and an average trip length
of 4.0 miles, reduction in VMT because of expanded transit system can
be calculated as follows:
8,300 4- 1.39 x 4.0 = 23,880 VMT
This represents a reduction of 0.7 percent of VMT in the Fresno-
Clovis Urban Area and less than 0.3 percent of the projected total VMT
for the Fresno County by 1980.
Increased Car Pooling
Total vehicle miles of travel (VMT) can also be reduced by encouraging
car pooling, or sharing of private vehicles by several persons. Unlike
transit improvements, this measure deals almost exclusively with people who
presently own and use their automobiles. The work trip, which traditionally
has the longest trip length and the lowest auto occupancy, is the principal
target.
The same urban characteristics which encourage use of public transit
also help car pooling -- scarcity and high cost of parking together with
traffic congestion. An additional very important factor is the presence
of large employers with fixed working hours. Staggered work hours mitigate
against car pooling. On the other hand, dispersed, low density residential
development is not as detrimental to car pooling as it is to public transit.
The City of Fresno is not well suited for car pooling; however, some
potential exists in the Fresno central area and a number of other larger
employment centers such as the IRS Center, Fresno State College, and
Fresno County Hospital.
Limited studies of car pooling show that for the program to succeed
four ingredients are essential to its success:
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1. Public information
2. Incentives
3. Matching service
4. Continuity in support
Public information is critical to gain public support and to stimulate
demand for car pooling. Incentives are very desirable to motivate people
to join car pools. Positive response is usually received to incentives
which provide added convenience to car-poolers, such as special "parking
pool" facilities, use of company or agency cars, and preferential parking
treatment. Measures which would penalize driving alone, such as priority
ramps, freeway tolls and graduated license fees, are disliked even by
people who are interested in car pooling.
General guidelines have been suggested (63) as to the type of match-
ing appropriate for different employee group sizes.
Potential Car Pool
Group Size Matching Technique
Less than 1,000 Manual matching, using an areawide map
1,000 to 5,000 Computer matching, based on grid system
Greater than 5,000 Computer matching, with automatic
address coding
In addition to incentives and car pool matching service, an active
and continuous support of the program is required by the management to
maintain interest and participation. This is particularly true in insti-
tutions such as universities where there is a large turnover and new
people have to be informed and encouraged to participate.
The 1971 Origin-Destination Survey showed that the average auto
occupancy for work trips in Stockton area was an extremely low 1.13 per-
sons per car. In larger urban areas more suited for car pooling, it has
been possible to increase work trip occupancy from 1.20 to 1.45 at the
major work trip generators.
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Assuming that by full cooperation and active support of all major
employers in the area similar results could be achieved in Fresno for
about 30 percent of work trips, reduction in VMT for the 1971 base year,
when there were 105,270 person work trips, would have been:
105,270 x .70/1.13 - 65,212
105,270 x .30/1.40 - 22.558
Total driver trios 87,770
Reduction of auto work trips from 93,330 to 87,770 with an average trip
length of approximately 5.0 miles would have met reduction of 5,560 x
5.50 = 27,800 daily VMT. Travel by 1980 is expected to increase by
about 68 percent in the urban area over what it was in 1971. Thus, a
reduction of 46,700 VMT could be expected from a reasonably successful
car pooling program in Fresno by 1980.
This would mean a reduction of 1.3 percent VMT in the Fresno-Clovis
Urban Area and less than 0.6 percent of the projected total VMT for the
Fresno County by 1980.
Parking Control Measures
Parking control measures can be used to e'ither discourage the use of
private vehicles or to increase the efficiency of their usage. This can
be accomplished by either limiting the number of parking spaces or by
controlling their use through pricing mechanisms. The measure is most
effective in the central business district.
In the absence of total land use planning, just limiting the number
of spaces or indiscriminately increasing their cost can injure the vitality
of the CBD. Such action would only promote urban sprawl by forcing more
businesses and their customers out to suburbs where there is no alternative
to private automobile. Parking control measure must be directed to that
segment of parkers who are likely to come to CBD regardless of controls,
but who would use alternative means if parking became too expensive or
inconvenient. Long-term employee parking is the only one that falls in
this category in Fresno central city area.
A comprehensive parking survey was carried out in the Fresno
Central Area in 1969. At that time there were 20,771 parking spaces
of which 9,489 were designated short-term and the remaining 10,923
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long-term. Under an assumption that there would be no further increases
in the supply of parking spaces, 1975 and 1980 deficiencies were pro-
jected. By 1975 there would be a deficiency of 894 short-term and
2,832 long-term spaces. This would increase to a shortage of 5,330
short-term and 8,092 long-term spaces by 1980.
A control measure of limiting construction of additional long-term
parking spaces along with increased long-term parking rates should help
to somewhat decrease exclusive use of private automobiles for work trips
to the CBD. The City is considering a proposal to make short-term
parking free in the downtown to reduce the amount of supervision
necessary. The control measure would require increased enforcement
of parking time limits in short-term parking locations as well as
prohibition of meter feeding bv all-day parkers.
It is estimated that with parking control measures, additional car
pooling of work trips would take place as well as increased use of
transit. If approximately 1,250 auto work trips to the CBD are diverted
to other modes, reduction of 12,500 daily VMT could be achieved by 1980.
This would mean a reduction of less than. 0.4 percent VMT in the
Fresno-Clovis Urban Area and less than 0.2 parcent of ths projected
total VMT for the Fresno County bv 1980.
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5.3 PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY
Ultimately, the effectiveness of any control strategy will be
measured in terms of its ability to reduce emissions to the desired air
quality levels. As noted, the relationship between air pollutant
emissions and ambient air quality is not well understood, despite major
efforts to develop both sophisticated analytical and statistical models.
Many of the other limitations in the data bases and working assumptions
have been discussed.
The proposed control strategy fully recognizes inadequacies in the
data analyzed; it is presented to be as accurate a portrayal as possible
of the air pollution situation given the limits and constraints imposed
upon the study. Directionally, the implementation of many or all of the
controls will result in significantly improved air quality. In a tech-
nical sense, the proposed plan should allow for attainment of the air
quality standards by the 1977 target date.
In general, implementation of Phase I measures can be justified on
the basis of air quality improvements at reasonable costs and with minor
social impacts. These measures are therefore-highly recommended for
implementation as soon as possible.
The impact of implementing the Phase II control measures is
staggering, both in terms of economic costs and the societal disruptions
which would result from their institution. Also, it is not clear at this
time whether some of these measures are technologically feasible and/or
effective. Further evaluation and testing is clearly warranted for these
measures before they can be advocated on a wide-spread basis.
The necessity for Phase II control measures results from insufficient
emission reductions being demonstrably achieved from the Phase I measures.
The choice of which additional controls will actually be implemented re-
mains to be decided. The measures listed in this analysis were chosen
somewhat arbitrarily and are used more for illustrative purposes. They
are intended to indicate the severity of additional controls which appear
to be necessary to achieve the NAAQS. Other measures could easily have
been considered. To some extent, Phase II controls were aimed at con-
trolling heretofore uncontrolled sources, e.g. motorcycles and heavy duty
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vehicles. The difficulty of achieving additional controls after the Phase
I measures can be briefly summarized;
By 1975-1977, no single source category pre-dominates in the
emission inventory; that is, all categories contribute a little
to the overall problem.
Major pollution sources, e.g. stationary sources and light duty
vehicles, will be stringently controlled by 1975-1977, and
additional controls on these categories will be difficult to
achieve.
t Minor pollution sources, e.g. motorcycles and heavy duty vehicles,
although uncontrolled, continue to be relatively small contribu-
tors, to the problem; therefore, controls of these categories will
have only minor impact on total emissions.
The following graphs show the effect of the proposed TRW emission
control strategies for reactive hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. The
effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in relation to those
allowable emissions, which correspond to meeting the air quality standards.
The baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state and local controls which
are already, or will be, in effect on all types of sources. The curve
for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due to the proposed
Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles only. Other
curves show the reductions due to stationary source controls and Phase II
controls.
For these curves, "Stationary Source Controls" include gasoline
marketing loss controls, organic surface coating substitution, dry
cleaning vapor control, degreaser substitution, and burning regulation.
"Motor Vehicle Controls" include mandatory inspection/maintenance,
oxidizing catalytic converters, and the pre-1966 retrofit device. "Phase II
controls" include the elimination of motorcycle use during smog season,
evaporative retrofit devices (light duty vehicles), and heavy duty vehicle
catalytic converter and evaporative retrofits plus HDV inspection/
maintenance with a 50% rejection rate. Each of these control measures
is discussed later in the text.
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Tables 5-11, 5-12, and 5-13 show the baseline motor vehicle
emissions inventory for reactive hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitro-
gen oxides, respectively, and itemize the effects on emissions of the
Phase I and Phase II vehicle-oriented control measures. Table 5-14 shows
the predicted inventory of emissions for 1975-1977, and 1980 if the recom-
mended Phase I control measures are implemented.
50
40
I
-^
t/)
o
30
20
10
. ALLOWABLE JMISSlflNS
(19.8 TONS/DAY)
(1) Baseline
(2) Stationary Source Controls
(3) Mobile Source Controls
(4) Phase II Controls
1970
Figure 5-9.
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Fresno County - Reactive Hydrocarbon
(1970 - 1980)
175
-------
300
>-
o
^o 200
100
ALLOWABLEJMISSIONS
~277~TO"NS/DAY)
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
H 1
\ 1 1
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978
YEAR
1980
Figure 5-10.
Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno
County - Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980)
176
-------
TABLE 5-11. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LOMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LOHV Pre-1966 Retrofit (1955-65)
Insoecti on/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Regaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Phase II Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporate Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/Md
Total Reductions
TOTAL Regaining Emissions
Fresno Countv
1970
Tons /day
34.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
37.6
1975
Tons /day
17.7
2.0
1.1
1.5
22.3
Reductions
Tons/day
-2.8
-0.6
-0.8
-4.2
18.1
-1.5
-2.3
-1.0
-9.0
13.3
Percent
12.6
2.7
3.6
18.8
81.2
6.7
10.3
4.5
40.4
59.6
1977
Tons/day
12.3
1.9
1.1
1.7
17.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-1.9
-0.4
-1.5
-3.8
13.2
-1.7
-1.5
-1.0
-8.0
9.0
Percent
11.2
2.4
8.8
22.4
77.6
10.0
8.8
5.9
47.1
52.9
1980
Tons /day
7.3
1.9
1.0
1.8
12.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-1.2
-0.2
-0.9
-2.3
9.7
-1.8
-0.8
-0.9
-5.8
6.2
Percent
10.0
1.7
7.5
19.2
80.8
15.0
6.7
7.5
48.3
51.7
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all nre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 nercent of all vehicles,
9 nercent reduction in HC from I/M
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDI1V)
-------
TABLE 5-12. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory9
LDMV
HDMV
. Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Fresno County
1970
Tons/day
231.0
10.0
5.0
4.0
250.0
1975
Tons /day
141.0
15.0
6.0
6.0
168.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-30.0
-1.1
-3.3
-34.4
134.0
Percent
17.9
0.7
2.0
20.5
79.8
1977
Tons /day
97.0
16.0
6.0
7.0
126.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-20.0
-0.4
-9.2
-29.6
96.0
Percent
15.9
0.3
7.3
23.5
76.2
1980
Tons/day
59.0
17.0
5.0
7.0
88.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-12.0
-0.1
-5.6
-17.7
70.0
Percent
13.6
0.1
6.4
20.1
79.5
vj
CO
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicle - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 5-13. OXIDES OF NITROGEN EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65)
Total Reductions
Fresno County
1970
Tons /day
31.2
1.9
7.4
40.5
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
1975
Tons/day
26.0
2.6
10.4
39.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.5
-0.5
38.5
Percent
1.3
1.3
98.7
1977
Tons /day
19.8
2.5
9.6
31.9
Reductions
Tons /day
-0.3
-0.3
31.6
Percent
0.9
0.9
99.1
1980
Tons /day
11.9
2.4
10.2
24.5
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.1
-0.1
24.4
Percent
0.4
0.4
99.6
to
a) Based on presently planned control programs
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 5-14. PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY -,
FRESNO COUNTY
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Refining and
Production
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Clearfing (1/3)
and Oegreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Comhustion:
Residential, Commer-
cial, and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral,
and Metallurgical
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LOMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1970
THC
7.3
6.4
4.2
4.3
12
8.0
3.2
21
1.5
0.8
68.7
1.1
41.0
1.9
0.8
1.1
114.6
RHC
-
6.0
0.8
0.9
2.4
1.0
0.3
2.2
-
-
13.6
1.0
34.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
52.2
NOX
4.0
0.6
-
-
-
0.6
0.3
0.8
8.9
-
15.2
0.5
31.2
1.9
7.4
-
56.2
CO
-
-
-
-
14
22
34
3
-
73
8
231
10
5
4
331
1975
THC
5.1
-1-.8
3.0
3.3
13
3.0
0.9
2.0
1.6
1.2
34.9
1.2
17.2
2.4
1.1
1.7
58.5
RHC
-
1.7
0.6
-
2.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
-
.
5.6
1.1
13.5
2.0
1.1
1.5
24.8
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
-
-
0.2
0.1
0.1
9.4
-
13.3
0.6
25.5
2.6
10.4
-
52.4
CO
-
-
-
-
-
5
5
3
3
-
13
10
107
15
6
6
157
1977
THC
5.1
0.8
2.3
3.4
13
3.1
0.9
2.2
1.6
1.4
33.8
1.2
11.1
2.4
1.1
1.9
51.5
RHC
-
0.7
0.5
.
2.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
-
-
4.5
1.1
8.5
1.9
1.1
1.7
18.8
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
-
-
0.2
0.1
0.1
9.7
-
13.6
0.7
19.5
2.5
9.6
-
45.7
CO
-
-
-
-
-
5
6
4
3
-
18
11
67
16
6
7
125
1980
THC
5.1
0.9
2.4
3.6
14
3.2
0.9
2.4
1.7
1.7
35.9
1.2
6.7
2.3
1.0
2.0
49d
RHC
-
0.8
0.5
-
2.8
0.4
0.1
0.2
-
-
4.8
1.1
5.0
1.9
1.0
1.8
15.6
NOX
2.8
0.8
-
-
-
0.2
0.1
0.2
10.2
-
14.3
0.8
1K8
2.4
10.2
-
39.5
CO
-
-
-
-
-
6
6
4
3
-
19
11
41
17
5
7
100
00
o
-------
The control measures outlined are not new and have been proposed
elsewhere; no "magic solution1 was found and only incremental improve-
ments can be expected from each measure. Over the short term, large
emission reductions will result from presently planned programs at all
levels of government -- Federal, state, and local. By the years 1975-77,
remaining uncontrolled emissions will come from many, many sources, the
majority of which are controlled. At this point in time, incremental
air quality improvements become more difficult, expensive, disruptive, and
publicly unacceptable. However, the severity of the air pollution left
few alternatives for measures which would be adequate to accomplish the
program requirements.
Phase I Measures (Recommended):
1. Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls - It is evident that as
exhaust hydrocarbon emissions are more stringently controlled, the per-
centage contribution of hydrocarbon emissions from evaporative losses due
to normal gasoline handling and transfer operations will increase signifi-
cantly. Therefore, it is recommended that controls be required to either
prevent or capture these vapor losses before escaping to the atmosphere.
Control systems for certain transfer operations are presently available
and should be installed as quickly as possible -- bulk terminals, under-
ground storage tanks. Implementation of this measure should result in a
reduction of reactive hydrocarbons of approximately 5.1 tons per day in
1975 and 6.4 tons per day by 1977.
2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - Spurred in part by their con-
tribution to the air pollution problem, the paint and varnish industry has
for some time been engaged in research and development of less polluting
surface coating formulations. Examples of new formulations entering these
markets are water-based or high solids content products. It has been
estimated by representatives in the industry that significant inroads can
be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute less reactive surface coatings
for certain applications. Implementation of such a measure is estimated
to eliminate about 0.3 and 0.4 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons by
1975 and 1977, respectively.
181
-------
3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - Certain large dry cleaning plants continue
to use reactive petroleum solvents in their normal operations. In these
plants, it is possible to install activated carbon adsorption systems to
control solvent vapors. Implementation of this measure should result in
approximately 0.3 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons being eliminated
by 1975 and 0.33 tons per day by 1977.
4. Degreaser Substitution - In areas with acute air pollution, substitu-
tion of less reactive solvents for presently used degreaser solvents is a
control measure which can readily be implemented. Widespread institution
of this control measure should result in approximately 0.6 tons of reactive
hydrocarbons being removed from the atmosphere by 1975 and 0.66 tons per
day by 1977.
5. Burning Regulation - Both current and proposed Air Resources Board
regulations for backyard, agricultural, and lumber industry incineration
practices are aimed at either restricting incineration or requiring more
efficient burning practices. It is estimated that such regulations will
result in a reduction from baseline year emissions of 3.1 tons per day
of reactive hydrocarbons by 1975 and 3.2 tons per day by 1977.
6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - In an attempt to derive the full
benefit from both new and used car emission controls, it is recommended
that a mandatory annual inspection/maintenance program be established.
Initially, to minimize many of the administrative and technical problems "
associated with instituting such a program, it is recommended that an
idle emissions test only be required at the state owned and operated test
facilities. After the program has been operative for several years and
most of the administrative details adequately worked out, it is recommended
that a loaded emissions testing program be instituted by upgrading the
testing facilities with the necessary additional equipment and personnel.
Implementation of this two stage program should result in 0.8 tons per day
of reactive hydrocarbons being eliminated by 1975. In 1977, with the
implementation of a loaded emissions test approximately 1.5 tons per day
of reactive hydrocarbon can be removed from the atmosphere.
7. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - The California Air Resources Board
has been and is currently evaluating catalytic converters as a retrofit
182
-------
for pre-1974 vehicles. Preliminary data indicate that large emission
reductions are possible with these devices. The CARB has proposed wide-
spread use of this retrofit as a measure for meeting the NAAQS, even
though questions relating to the availability of lead free fuel and the
overall applicability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles remain
unresolved. Catalysts developed to date require the use of lead-free
gasoline to prevent poisoning of the catalytic element. It remains to
be seen what percentage of the older vehicles can operate satisfactorily
on lead-free gasoline. Assuming portions of the 1970-1974 and 1966-1969
vehicles can be retrofitted with catalytic converters, it is estimated
a reduction of 2.8 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons can be achieved
by 1975 and 1.9 tons per day by 1977.
8. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - The California Air Resources Board has
accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon and oxides of nitrogen
emissions from 1955-1965 vehicles. These devices have thus far been
required only in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins.
The devices are essentially a vacuum spark advance disconnect (VSAD) with
a thermal override switch to prevent overheating, or an electronic igni-
tion system. Implementation of this measure should reduce reactive
hydrocarbon emissions by 0.6 tons per day in 1975 and 0.4 tons per day
in 1977.
9. Mass Transit - Actually three measures under the heading of mass
transit are recommended for implementation in San Joaquin County:
Improved Public Transit, Increased Car Pooling, and Parking Control.
t Improved Public Transit - To increase public transit use through
greater frequency of service, such as 10-15 minute headways, and
more complete coverage, it is recommended that the present bus
system be greatly expanded. Assuming that this will be possible
by capital grants and allowance of a greater percentage of SB325
for operating expenditures, some estimate can be made as to what
this would do to the total VMT in the region. If ridership is
doubled by 1980, VMT will be reduced by 23,880. This is less than
a 0.3 percent reduction in 1980 county VMT.
183
-------
t Increased Car Pooling - If, through incentives, car pool matching,
and an energetic public information program, car pooling can re-
duce work trips by 30 percent, daily VMT will be reduced by 27,800
in 1980. This corresponds to a 0.6 percent reduction of the pro-
jected VMT in San Joaquin County.
Parking Control - A control measure of limiting construction of
additional long-term parking spaces along with increased long-term
parking rates should help to somewhat decrease exclusive use of
private automobiles for work trips to the CBD. The measure will
require increased enforcement of parking time limits in short-term
parking locations as well as prohibition of meter feeding by all-
day parkers. The result will be a reduction of 12,500 in daily
VMT in 1980, corresponding to a decrease of 0.2 percent of the
projected total in San Joaquin County.
In summary, implementation of a series of mass transit improvements
plus incentives to discourage the private use of the automobile will re-
sult in very modest .VMT reductions by 1975-1977. Furthermore, these
\
improvements will have negligible impact on hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide emissions in 1975 and 1977.
Phase II Measures (If Demonstratably Warranted):
1. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Application of the Phase I
control measures on organic solvent uses will result in significant
hydrocarbon emission reductions. However, if warranted, it appears that
additional reductions may be achievable. These additional reductions will
be increasingly difficult to obtain since the remaining emissions are
either under tight control already or the sources are very minor and
diffuse, making them difficult to bring under control. Examples of this
latter category are organic solvent uses in printing operations, pharma-
ceutical uses, insecticide/pesticide applications, rubber tire
manufacturing, plastic and putty manufacturing, etc. Individually, the
sources are minor; in their composite they are presently a significant
uncontrolled source category. No reductions are claimed from possible
controls from these sources in this analysis. As an alternative, however,
it is certainly recommended that a closer examination be made of these
minor polluters.
184
-------
2. Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - As shown previously,
uncontrolled motorcycle emissions are projected to be among the highest
of any motor vehicle type on a grams per mile basis. Their overall con-
tribution to the pollution problem has been minor due to the relatively
low number of vehicles and annual mileages accumulated. However, as the
number of motorcycles increases (uncontrolled) and as more controls are
imposed on light and heavy duty vehicles, their emission contribution
will become more significant. Two-stroke motorcycles, especially, are
notoriously high emitters. In view of the projected importance of this
source category, a ban on motorcycles during the summer months when smog
is most intense, is a possible control measure. Part of the rationale
for this control is that motorcycles are used primarily for recreational
purposes, rather than for essential trip-making. A ban on motorcycles
during the smog season is estimated to eliminate 1.5 tons per day of
reactive hydrocarbons in 1975 and 1.7 tons per day in 1977.
3. Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance, Catalytic Converter, and
Evaporative Retrofits - For essentially the same reasons outlined under
light duty vehicles, mandatory inspection/maintenance for heavy duty
vehicles can be an effective control measure. Limited test data is
available and has demonstrated its feasibility and effectiveness as a
control measure.
Similarly, a limited amount of data exists demonstrating the effec-
tiveness and feasibility of heavy duty catalytic converter and evaporative
retrofits as potential control measures. More extensive field testing is
necessary, however, before widespread implementation of these measures can
be warranted. It is estimated about 1.0 tons per day of reactive hydro-
carbons could be eliminated with these three control measures by 1975 and
1977.
4. Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit - Still another retrofit being
considered for light duty vehicles (pre-1970) is an evaporative control
device. The CARB is currently investigating the feasibility of this type
of device and if demonstrated effective, they may advocate its use. Others
have pointed to the need for such controls but actual working prototypes
and field testing data are limited at this time. The technical obstacles
appear to be impeding widespread application of this control measure.
185
-------
Also, since the device is to be used on pre-1970 vehicles, its effective-
ness decreases with time due to normal attrition of vehicles which can be
retrofitted with such devices. Nevertheless, if all the difficulties
with this control can be eliminated, it is estimated 2.3 tons per day of
reactive hydrocarbons can be reduced in 1975 and 1.5 tons per day in 1977.
5. VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing - As a last resort type control,
or after implementation of all Phase I measures, additional reductions can
be achieved by a program to reduce vehicle miles travelled (VMT) through
gasoline rationing. In light of recent publicity declaring gasoline
shortages and/or the energy crises, the public appears to be ready to
accept a modest level of fuel rationing. Rationing should be viewed
strictly as an interim control to achieve modest reductions. Attempts to
impose large scale rationing upon the public will result in numerous un-
desirable consequences. The effectiveness of gasoline rationing decreases
as vehicular exhaust emission characteristics decrease. In fact, if
massive rationing is contemplated, the value of extensive retrofitting
programs becomes somewhat questionable. As the last measure to be im-
plemented, it appears that no VMT reduction of light duty vehicles is
necessary for attainment of the oxidant standard by 1977 if Phase I
measures are implemented.
186
-------
6.0 STRATEGY FOR KERN COUNTY
In this section is discussed the air pollution control strategy
which has been developed for application in Kern County. Section 6.1
presents the baseline data and includes the base year (1971) air quality,
emissions, and transportation data and projected emissions and transpor-
tation data (without additional controls) to 1980. Section 6.2 describes
how the proposed strategy was developed .and provides estimates of the
effectiveness of each measure. Section 6.3 summarizes the strategy and
indicates the expected emission reductions due to each measure when
applied in Kern County.
6.1 BASELINE DATA
For the purposes of this study, it has been assumed that the air
quality in Kern County is directly related to the emissions in Kern
County and that atmospheric transport of air pollutants from other areas
does not significantly influence county air quality. This appears to be
a reasonable assumption, according to available data. This data is
presented in 6.1.1 and indicates that the principal pollutants in this
study -- hydrocarbons and oxidant -- obey the classical temporal relation-
ship (hydrocarbon concentrations peak between 6 AM and 9 AM and oxidant
peaks near 12 noon). If atmospheric transport were a significant problem,
it is likely that these peaks would occur at other times in the day. Thus,
emissions data is presented in Section 6.1.2 in the form of an inventory
for Kern County, and transportation data in 6.1.3 is presented for the
county only.
6.1.1 Air Quality
The variations of one-hour average total oxidant and total hydro-
carbon concentrations in Bakersfield on 15 July 1973 are shown in
Figure 6-1. This graph shows that, as in Stockton and Fresno, the
hydrocarbon averages peaked at roughly the same periods in the day that
traffic does. Furthermore, the oxidant concentration reached a maximum
average near noontime on this date, as was true for Stockton and Fresno.
187
-------
Figure 6-2 shows the diurnal variation of one hour average carbon
monoxide concentration on the dates in 1970, 1971, and 1972 on which the
maximum 8-hour averages for each year in Bakersfield occurred. These
three plots are very similar in shape; the peak averages occurred during
the periods from 6 AM to 9 AM and from 5 PM to 9 PM, with the second being
the highest peak. These peaks are consistent with the normal traffic
peaks and are very pronounced, suggesting intermittent atmospheric sta-
bility, rather than long term inversions.
The monthly averages of maximum hourly averages are plotted in
Figure 6-3 for total oxidant and carbon monoxide in Bakersfield in 1971.
This graph is generally similar to those for Stockton and Fresno. The
highest oxidant averages occur in the summer and fall months, when there
is the most sunlight compared to other times in the year, while carbon
monoxide peaks in the late fall and winter, when low mixing heights and
stable atmospheric conditions are most common.
188
-------
.12
.10
.08
Q
C.
C.
o
(T3
4->
c
(U
O
c
o
o
X
o
.06
.04
.02
I
I
I
I
12
10
I
I
I
I
12 4 8 12 4 8
Midnight am an Noon pm pm
Figure 6-1. Comparison of Total Oxidant and Total
Hydrocarbon Concentrations in Bakersfield (Golden
State Ave.) on 15 July 1971.
Notes: 1. All data shown are one-hour average concentrations.
2. The maximum one-hour average oxidant concentration
for Bakersfield in 1971 occurred on 15 July (.22 ppm).
Legend: Total Hydrocarbon
Total Oxidant
a.
a.
c
o
CO
S-
c
OJ
o
c
o
o
11
pm
Source: California Air Resources Board
189
-------
30 -
Q_
Q_
£1
O
i
+J
03
Ol
O
c
O
O
O
O
26
22
18
14
10
1
12
Midnight
4
am
8
am
12
Noon
4
pm
8
pm
Figure 6-2. Diurnal Variation of One-Hour Average
Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in Bakersfield on Dates
of Maximum Eight-Hour Average Concentrations for Each
Year.
Source: California Air Resources Board
16 NOV.
197C
(Golden
State)
1,20 Dec.
I 1971
(thester
I Ave)
7 Jan.
1972
(Chester
Ave)
11
pm
190
-------
Figure 6-3. Monthly Averages of Maximum Hourly Averages
for Total Oxidant and Carbon Monoxide in Bakersfield in 1971.
Notes: Oxidant was measured at the Golden State and Chester Stations.
Carbon monoxide was measured at Golden State and Chester Stations.
Legend:
Total Oxidant
Carbon Monoxide
Source: California Air Resources Board
191
-------
6.1.2 Baseline Emission Inventory
Table 6-1 presents the baseline emission inventory for Kern County.
Average tons per day emissions are given for total hydrocarbons (THC),
reactive hydrocarbons (RHC), nitrogen oxides (NOX), and carbon monoxide
(CO). Subdivisions are made according to source class; (stationary,
aircraft, and motor vehicle), and within the source class according to
specific type.
The baseline consists of the base yaar, (1971), and projections
through 1975, 1977, and 1980 for a "nominal control strategy." An
unambiguous definition of "nominal control strategy" is not readily
apparent; control regulations are in a state of rapid flux. The
decision as to what controls enter the baseline inventory is thus
somewhat arbitrary. The important point in constructing the base-
line is to carefully delineate the assumed, nominal controls. In
the present study, the baseline case assumes the following control
strategy:
a. For stationary sources, the baseline control is the
degree of control existing in the base year, (1971).
b. For aircraft, the baseline is the present federal
control program, (burner-can retrofit and emission
standards for future new engines).
c. For heavy duty motor vehicles and diesels, the base-
line consists of the present federal control program.
Motorcycles have no controls. For light duty vehicles,
the present California/Federal new car controls and
the present California ARB retrofit program
(exhaust devices for 1966-70 vehicles) are assumed.
To emphasize the relative significance of the two or three major
sources of air pollution in Kern County, pie charts have been constructed
for the 1971 base year inventory. Figure presents these charts,
giving percent of base year emissions attributable to each source
category. Figure indicates that, for each pollutant, motor vehicles
(light duty, heavy duty, diesels, and motorcycles) were the major
contributors in 1971. Other significant sources of RHC were petroleum
marketing and organic solvent use. Fuel combustion in the petroleum
industry is a significant contributor of NO .
/\
192
-------
TABLE 6-1. KERN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977 and 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Production and
Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Subtotal - Stationary
Ai rcraf t
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
61.8
5.7
2.1
2.1
8.1
14.0
5.0
0.8
98.8
0.12
36.4
3.7
1.6
1.5
142.1
RHC
1.5
5.3
0.4
0.4
1.6
1.4
0.5
_
11.1
0.11
30.3
3.0
1.6
1.4
47.5
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
1.9
-
7.5
55.4
0.08
33.8
3.9
16.3
-
109.5
CO
102
-
-
-
-
29
6
1
139
3
209
20
10
12
383
1975
THC
66.0
6.5
2.2
2.3
8.4
15.0
5.3
0.8
106.5
0.14
22.9
4.0
1.9
2.5
137.9
RHC
1.6
6.0
0.4
0.5
1.7
1.5
0.5
-
12.2
0.13
18.7
3.3
1.9
2.3
38.5
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
-
2.0
-
7.9
55.9
0.1C
28.5
4.4
19.2
-
108.1
CO
102
-
-
-
-
30
7
1
141
4
138
25
12
2
322
1977
THC
69.0
7.0
2.3
2.4
8.6
15.0
5.7
0.9
110.9
0.16
17.4
3.8
1.8
2.8
136.9
RHC
1.7
6.5
0.4
0.5
1.7
1.5
0.6
-
12.9
0.14
13.9
3.1
1.8
2.5
34.3
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
-
2.1
-
8.0
56.1
0.11
22.4
4.2
18.2
-
101.0
CO
102
-
-
-
-
31
7
1
142
4
103
26
11
3
279.1
1980
THC
76.0
7.6
2.3
2.6
8.9
16.0
6.1
0.9
120.4
0.17
10.6
3.5
1.7
3.1
139.5
RHC
1.9
7.0
0.5
0.5
1.8
1.6
0.6
-
13.9
0.15
8.3
2.8
1.7
2. .8
29.7
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
-
2.1
-
8.3
56.4
0.13
14.4
3.9
16.6
-
91.4
CO
102
-
-
-
-
32
8
1
144
5
59
29
9
3
249
VO
OJ
-------
Petroleum refining'and marketing, 14.4%
Organic solvent users, 5.0%
Other 4.2%
Motor Vehicles, 76.4%
Petroleum refining, 26.6%
Incineration, 7.6%
Other, 2.7%
Motor vehicles, 63%
Petroleum industry, 42.0%
Fuel combustion, 6.8%
Other, 1.9%
Motor vehicles, 49.3% .-
Reactive Hydrocarbons
47.5 Tons/Day
Carbon Monoxide
383 Tons/Day
Nitrogen Oxides
109.5 Tons/Day
Figure 6-4. Percentage of Emissions from Major Source
Categories in Kern County in 1971
194
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Table 6-2 gives a more detailed breakdown of relative source
emissions in the base year., It is evident that liqht duty vehicles,
(LDMV), account for the largest part of motor vehicle emissions, and
that "other" constitutes the most significant part of organic solvent
emissions.
Table 6-1 indicates that the relative importance of various sources
changes considerably in the 1970's under the assumed baseline controls.
The new car and retrofit control programs greatly reduce emissions
from LDMV's. For this decade, the present Federal control strategy
essentially just "holds the line" on aircraft, HDMV, and diesel
emissions. With no further control assumed in the baseline, stationary
source emissions continue to expand as activity in the region grows.
The specific assumptions and calculations used to construct the
baseline inventory are presented in Sections 6.1.2.1, 6.1.2.2 and 6.1.2.3
below. These deal with the stationary source, aircraft, and motor
vehicle source classes respectively. They present the details on base
year data, reactivity assumptions, nominal controls, and projection
techniques. The limitations of the assumptions and analysis are also
thoroughly discussed.
6.1.2.1 Stationary Sources
Baseline Stationary Soruces Inventory
The base year, Kern County, stationary source inventory for THC
NO , and CO is derived from the 1970 California ARB inventory for stationary
A
sources in Kern County (40). The 1970 CARB inventory has been projected
to the base year, 1971. The projection techniques are discussed in
detail below.
Table presents the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions used in
the stationary source inventory. For each stationary source except
petroleum marketing, 1970 CARB assumptions on hydrocarbon reactivity are
used. These in turn, are based on L.A. County APCD reactivity figures.
According to recent EPA specifications, (43) petroleum marketing
emissions were taken as 93% reactive, (whereas the CARB uses a 45%
reactivity). Hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions are very critical to
195
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TABLE 6-2. RELATIVE EMISSIONS BY MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORIES
IN KERN COUNTY IN 1971
(Indicated as % of Total Emission of
and Nitrogen Oxides)
Petroleum Production and Refining
Marketing
Organic Surface Coating
bolvent gry deling anc|
Degreasing
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion
Remainder (Metallurgical and
Lumber Industries)
Subtotal - Stationary Sources
Aircraft
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Gasoline powered
Diesel powered
Motorcycles
Subtotal - Mobile Sources
TOTAL
Reactive Hydrocarbon, Carbon Monoxide,
RHC
3.2
11.2
0.8
0.8
3.4
2.9
1.1
0
0
23.4
0.2
63.8
6.3
3.4
2.9
76.6
100.0
CO
26.6
0
0
0
0
7.6
1.6
0.3
0.3
36.3
0.8
54.6
5.2
2.6
0.5
63.7
100.0
NOX
42.0
0
0
0
0
1.7
0
6.8
0
50.6
0.1
30.8
3.6
14.9
0
49.4
100.0
196
-------
oxidant control strategies. Unfortunately, they are among the least
reliable values used here. The reactivity assumptions will be discussed
in more detail in the next section, dealing with limitations of the
assumptions and analysis.
TABLE 6-3. REACTIVITY ASSUMPTIONS FOR STATIONARY SOURCES
Stationary Source Reactivity Reference
Petroleum Refining 2 1/2% 1970 ARB (L.A. APCD)'
Petroleum Marketing 93% EPA
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating 20% 1970 ARB (L.A. APCD)
Dry Cleaning 20% " " "
Degreasing 20% " " "
Other ' 20% " "
Burning:
Incineration 10% " " "
Agriculture 10% " " "
Other 0% " "
To complete the baseline stationary source inventory, the 1971
inventory is projected to 1975, 1977, and 1980 under the basic assumption
that the degree of emission control existing in 1971 is preserved. The
only stationary source control enforced in Kern County for HC, CO, or NO
A
emissions in 1971 involved restrictions on incineration. Backyard'
incinerators and most types of open burning were banned by these
restrictions.
The growth rate assumptions in the baseline inventory varied from
source to source. They are summarized in Table 6-4. For most sources
projected growth was assumed proportional to population growth. For
certain industries which are expanding at rates significantly different
from population growth rates, emissions were projected according to
expected growth in constant dollar earnings for those industries. The
choice of constant dollar earnings as a growth indicator was arbitrary.
Emissions for these industries could also have been taken as proportional
197
-------
TABLE 6-4. GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS FOR STATIONARY
SOURCE EMISSIONS
Source
Petroleum
Refining
Petroleum
Marketing
Organic Solvents
--Surface Coating
--Dry Cleaning
--Degreasing
Other
Incineration
Agricultural Burning
Fuel Comb. -- Res.,
Com., & Ind.
Other: Min., Chem,
Lumb. , & Mett.
Growth Assumption
THC & RHC as earnings (1.)
NOV & CO - no growth (2.)
X
Growth according to projected
gasoline sales (3.)
Growth as population (4.)
Growth as population (4.)
Growth as manufacturing (1.)
Growth as population (4.)
Growth as population (4.)
Growth as earnings (1.)
Growth as population (4.)
Growth as industry specific earnings (1.)
1. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Population and Economic Activity in the United
States and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, July 1972".
2. Personal communications with refinery representatives and L.A.
County APCD official.
3. TRW Regression Model.
4. Population Research Unit, Department of Finance, Provisional
Projections of California Counties to 2000, September 15, 1971.
198
-------
to production. However, production type projections make no allowance
for technological improvements. Constant dollar earnings grow more
slowly than production and thus have the right sign to allow for
technological process changes. A third type of assumption v/as used for
petroleum marketing emissions. Growth was taken as proportional to
growth in gallons sold. The technical aspects of the problem indicate
that, for given degree of control, this should be a very realistic
assumption.
Limitations of the Analysts.
Since the 1970 California ARB inventory served as the foundation
for the stationary source 1971 base year emission estimates in this
study, the results presented here are subject to any limitations of that
inventory. These limitations concern the approximations inherent in
emission factors, source usage data, and source number estimates. There
is insufficient time in this study to review in detail all of these
approximations. Suffice it to note that for THC, NO , anc CO emissions
A
from stationary sources, none of the CARB inventory figures deviated way
out of line from what would be expected by comparison with other regions,
and no major inconsistencies appeared.
The least reliable aspects of the base year and projected baseline
stationary source inventories are the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions.
Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely complex and difficult issue.
Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according to the t
percent of the mixture that can possibly react, or alternatively,
according to some scale which assigns weights to individual compounds.
This ranking can be based on HC consumption rate, NO^ formation rate,
Ozone levels, or eye irritation production. The ranking depends on
the time allowed for reactions to occur as well as on ratios of the
input reactants (HC and NO ).
/\
As was noted in Table 6-3, the present study has used the 1970
California ARB emission inventory reactivity assumptions for all stationary
sources except petroleum marketing. For petroleum marketing, (as well
as mobile sources), recent EPA reactivity results were employed. The
CARB reactivity scale is founded upon Los Angeles County APCD smog chamber
199
-------
experiments. The EPA scale is based on experiments and conclusions
by Altshuller. These two scales yield very different estimates of
reactivity. For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive according
to the CARB, is 39% reactive according to the EPA. Evaporated gasoline,
considered 45% reactive by the CARB, is 93% reactive according to the EPA.
It is a troublesome inconsistency in this study that CARB estimates are
used for all but one stationary source, (yielding an average reactivity
of less than 20% for these sources), while EPA assumptions are used for
petroleum marketing, (93% reactivity), and mobile sources (all of high
reactivity). This has been done, however, so as to include the most
recent data (EPA reactivity figures), even though corresponding data
were unavailable for most stationary sources.
An illustration of how confusing and arbitrary reactivity assumptions
can be is provided by past inconsistencies in the treatment of organic
solvent reactivity. In the 1970 CARB inventory and the original California
Implementation Plan (40), the CARB assumed a 20% reactivity for each
major class of solvent use (surface coating, dry cleaning, degreasing,
and "other") and for each county in the San Francisco, Sacramento, and
San Joaquin regional areas. This reactivity was based on L.A. County .
APCD estimates for "post-rule 66" emissions. However, although San
Francisco had implemented such a rule by 1970, certain other counties
had not. Thus, 20% reactivity was used whether or not a county had
adopted Rule 66. Fortunately, this may not be an extremely bad
assumption. For surface coatings, meeting Rule 66 for the Los Angeles
and San Francisco regions has meant, in practice, that it is met for.
other California regions, (nearly all surface coatings supplied to these
regions are the same as supplied to Los Angeles and San Francisco (76)).
Reactivities of other organic solvents should also be somewhat uniform
throughout California.
The projected growth assumptions made here are also subject to
some question. Certain stationary source emissions were assumed to grow
as population, others were assumed to grow as industry specific earnings,
and petroleum marketing emissions were assumed to grow as gasoline sales.
None of these is likely to be exactly right. However, petroleum marketing
is the dominant stationary source for the most significant pollutant,
200
-------
(RHC), and the growth assumption (as sales) for that source should be
fairly accurate. Other growth assumptions, though less exact, apply
to less significant sources, and control strategy conclusions should
be insensitive to errors in those assumptions.
201
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6.1.2.2 Aircraft
Table 6-5 summarizes aircraft emissions in Kern County for the
base year 1971 and projected emission levels for 1975, 1977, and
Emissions are divided into two categories -- commercial air carriers and
non-commercial aviation. The latter includes general aviation, air taxi,
and military operations at civilian airports. Total emissions of hydrocar-
bons, CO, and NO are shown to increase in every projected year.
A
TABLE 6-5.
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS IN KERN COUNTY
BY OPERATIONS TYPE
Commercial
Air Carrier
Non-Comerdal
Aviation (a)
Total Emissions
Total Hydrocarbons
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04
0.09 0.11 0.12 0.13
0.12 0.14 0.16 0.17
Carbon Monoxide
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.12 0.14 0.16 0.17
2.86 3.74 4.14 4.36
2.98 3.88 4.30 4.53
Nitrogen Oxides
(tons/day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
0.07 0.08 0.09 0.11
0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.08 0.10 0.11 0.13
a Includes general aviation, air taxi, and military operations at civilian airports.
Reactive hydrocarbons are estimated to comprise 90% of total hydro-
carbons emitted by aircraft (both turbine-powered and piston powered) and
are shown in Table 6-6.
TABLE 6-6. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM AIRCRAFT
IN KERN COUNTY
Year 1971
Emissions (tons/day) 0.11
1975 1977 1980
0.13 0.14 0.15
202
-------
The values in Table 6-5 were developed with the use of aircraft
operations data (both historical and projected) published by the Federal
Aviation Administration. The operations data was translated into emission
estimates with the use of emission factors published by the EPA. These
data and calculations are discussed in detail in Appendix C.
The analysis and prediction of aircraft emissions is limited in two
important areas. The first involves the projection of aircraft activity
up to ten years in the future. There are normally significant errors in
such predictions, due to unforeseeable fluctuations in the economy and. the
labor market. National projections were used in this study, and local
conditions could account for significant error in applying these projections
to Kern County.
The second limitation of the analysis involves the use of the aircraft
emission factors. These factors were derived by EPA from test data describ-
ing the emission rates of particular types of aircraft engines at thrust
settings typical of each mode of the Landing Takeoff (LTO) cycle. In cases
where the average time-in-mode for each aircraft is known for an airport,
this data can be used directly to estimate yearly emissions. Unfortunately,
the time-in-mode is not known for any airport in this study. Anticipating
such situations, EPA assumed a particular set of times^-mode as typical of
the worst-case condition at a large metropolitan airport and assumed an
engine type typical of each aircraft class -- Jumbo Jet, Long-range Jet,
Medium-range Jet, etc. Emission factors were then calculated as an emission
rate per LTO for each class. Although this is the best one can do consider-
ing the poor availability of data, this method has several inherent weaknesses:
1. The worst-case time-in-mode is not truly representative of the
- yearly average operation cycles at any airport.
2. The worst-case time-in-mode is not typical of most airports in
Kern County; in fact, no airport in the county can be labeled
a large metropolitan airport.
3. Although the engine types chosen as typical of particular aircraft
classes may be used on the majority of craft within the class, the
actual emission rates can vary significantly, just as in the case
of motor vehicles, both within the engine type chosen for each
class and between this engine type and others used on similar
aircraft in the class.
203
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6.1.2.3 Motor Vehicles
Motor vehicles constitute the most substantial source of air con-
taminants in Kern County. As such; the development and assessment of
transportation control plans depends heavily on the ability to quantify
air pollutants arising from motor vehicle operations. Section 3.2.3.1
provides a disucssion of the motor vehicle baseline emission inventory,
quantified for the base year and projected years, under the applicable
baseline control conditions. Section 3.2.3.2 is a discussion of
limitations and constraints inherent in the current state-of-the-art for
motor vehicle emission inventory determination.
Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light-duty
vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline-powered vehicles, heavy-duty diesel
vehicles, and motorcycles. Emissions from these vehicle types were
estimated by determining the annual mileage by model distribution of
the region's vehicle population, the overall mileage and average speed
of vehicles in the region, and then applying appropriate emission and
reactivity factors which are attributable to the various vehicle age
classifications.
Characterization of Kern County vehicle populations into the pertinent
classes was accomplished by manipulation of data obtained form the
State Department of Motor Vehicles, the California Highway Patrol,
the State Air Resources Board, and the Division of Highways. Hydrocarbon,
carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides emission factors were obtained from
reference 45 and from direct communication with the Environmental Pro-.
tection Agency Region,IX Office.
The quantification of reactive hydrocarbons assumes foremost
importance in the total emission inventory, and in the development of
prospective pollution control plans. It is assumed there is a one-to-one
relationship between the quantity of reactive hydrocabron emitted to the
atmosphere and atmospheric oxidant concentration. For example, required
64% oxidant rollback in reactive hydrocarbon emissions.
204
-------
The ranking of hydrocarbon reactivity is a controversial issue,
and has been the subject of several studies, which when compared,
differ widely in their resultant conclusions. In resolving the
difficulties presented in selecting reactivity factor for this study,
TRW has provided with guidelines from the Environmental Protection
Agency. The reactivity values, in terms of the emmiter type, are as
follows:
gasoline evaporative emissions
(for all vehicles) .93
light-duty vehicle exhaust .77
heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
exhaust .79
heavy-duty diesel vehicle
exhaust .99
motorcycles (2-stroke) .96
motorcycles (4-stroke) .86
The numerical calculations required for estimation of motor vehicle
emission are carried out with the use of a computer program. The method-
ology for these calculations is discussed in Appendix .
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates of reactive hydrocarbons
are shown in Table 6-7.
TABLE 6-7
BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE
REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
KERN COUNTY
Type Of Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel)
Motorcycle (2-Stroke)
Motorcycle (4-Stroke)
Total
% Reduction
(Fraction of Base Year)
1971
(Base Year)
30.3
3.0
1.6
1.0
0.4
36.3
1975
18.7
3.3
1.9
1.6
0.7
26.2
27.82
1977
13.9
3.1
1.8
1.8
0.7
21.3
41.32
1980
8.3
2.8
1.7
2.0
0.8
15.6
57.02
205
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Due to federal automobile standards imposed in 1975, and specific vehicle
controls required under the California Auto Emission Standards, vehicle
emissions are expected to decrease in future years. By 1975, motor
vehicle reactive hydrocarbon emissions in Kern County will have decreased
by 28% and by 1980, the expected reduction is 57%. Since motor vehicle
emissions constitute the main source of air pollution, it appears
some additional vehicle controls will be required to attain the total
emission rollback, and the 1975 Federal Air Quality Standards. While
the enforcement of 1975 Federal vehicle emission standards will result
in substantial reductions of atmospheric pollution, the full benefit of
this control is mitigated by the growth of the vehicle population and
the associated increase in total VMT. Projections for motor vehicle
registrations in future years were made, utilizing a linear multiple
regressions analysis, (see Appendix ). In this mathematical procedure,
vehicle registration is determined by its relationship to socio-economic
variables (population and per capita income) for which future growth
has already been analyzed by other reliable methods. Projections for
daily vehicle miles dirven in Kern County were available from trans-
portation studies (2). Figure 6-5 shows the projections for light and
heavy duty vehicle miles traveled in Kern County. The projections
devised independently, show very similar trends. Due to substantial
growth rates of 37% in vehicle VMT, and 22% in vehicle registration,
from the base year to 1980, total vehicle emission reduction goals are
more difficult to attain.
Another factor mitigating the control of motor vehicle emissions is
the fact that heavy duty vehicles, and 'particularly motorcycles, are
not controlled to the same degree as light duty vehicles. Figure 6-6
it can be seen that there is a substantial shift in the relative con-
tribution of the various vehicle types to the degradation of air quality
in future years. For example, motorcycle emissions in 1972 constituted
3.9% of all motor vehicle emissions in Kern County, while by 1980, they
are expected (with present strategy control plans to account for 18%
of all motor vehicle reactive hydrocarbon emissions. The increasing
prominence of the motorcycle in the overall projected pollution problem
is enhanced further by the rapicJ growth rate (48, 57, and 110% by 1980
206
-------
200,000
to
Ul
d
150,000
UJ
I/)
|
LJ_
O
UJ
00
100,000
50,000
LDV (Registrations)
LDV (VMT)
HDV (VMT)
(Registrations)
8
1I >-
o o
6 00 00
UJ LU
. uj o
4 > «
0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Figure 6-5. Projected VMT and Vehicle Registration for Kern County
207
-------
40-
35-
30-
25--
20-
15-
10-
5 -
LDV
HDGV
HDDV
Motorcycles(2-Stroke
Motorcycles(4-Stroke)
1971
1975
1977
1980
Figure 6-6. Relative Baseline Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
for the Vehicle Types, Kern County
208
-------
10
8
UJ
D.
co
z
o
8.^
< E
O -v
O E
Qi en
Q
o
UJ
cc
-f-
MOTORCYCLES
HDGV
1976 FED. EMISSION STD.
REACTIVE HC*, gm/mi.
LDV .37
HDGV 3.98
HDDV 1.04
MOTORCYCLES 7.9
HDDV
f-
4-
4-
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Figure 6-7. Degree of Baseline Control for Various
Vehicle Types for Kern County
* EMISSION FACTOR = EXHAUST EMISSION FACTOR AND EVAP
AND CRANKCASE EMISSION FACTOR
209
-------
in Fresno, San Joaquin, and Kern Counties) expected for this vehicle
type (see Figure ).
Figure 6-7 demonstrates the trend in overall reactive hydrocarbon
emission rate per VMT for the various vehicle types. It can
be seen that motorcycles are the heaviest polluters per mile of travel,
and that their emissions are uncontrolled in the baseline projections.
The effect of exhaust control deterioration for older model vehicles, and
traffic flow patterns (speed adjustment factor) in the overall vehicle
emission totals is shown dramatically by comparison of the projected
1980 baseline total hydrocarbon emissions per VMT value with the future
(1976 and after) Federal exhaust emission standards for new vehicles.
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates for carbon monoxide (CO)
and nitrogen oxides (NO ) are shown in Table 2. The table shows that
/\
baseline control plans account for reductions in CO emissions which are
nearly equal to the reductions obtained for reactive hydrocarbons.
These reductions will result in the attainment of the Federal air quality
standards for CO in Kern County. Nitrogen oxide emissions do not pose
an air quality, problem in either the baseline projections, or the base
year itself.
Limitations in the Analysis
The quantification of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles
in a specific region depends substantially on the availability of
empirical data characterizing emission rates as a function of various
aspects of the regional vehicle population and transportation patterns.
Because vehicle emission rates depend on such a great variety of factors
(i.e., type of vehicle, condition of vehicle, driver habits, traffic flow,
climate, vehicle load, etc.), an accurate functional determination of
these rates is extremely involved, if not impossible. Consequently, the
notion of overall, or "average" emission rate values, becomes a necessary
expedient in the quantification of motor vehicle air contaminants. In
the light of this analytical compromise, average emission data by vehicle
model year have been generated for a "representative" nationwide driving
pattern termed the 1972 Federal Certification Test Procedure, and a
limited number of "region specific" adjustment factors have been
210
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TABLE 6-8
BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
KERN COUNTY
CARB
Type of Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel )
Motorcycle (2-stroke)
Motorcycle (4-stroke)
Total
% Reduction
(Fraction of Base Year)
ON MONOXIDE
1971
(Base Yeai
209.
20.
10.
1.0
0.4
240.4
NITROGEN OXIDES
Type of Vehicle
1971
(Tons/Day)
1975
")
138.
25.
12.
1.6
0.7
177.3
26.2
(Tons/Day)
1975
1977
103.
26.
11.
1.8
0.7
142.5
40.7
1977
1980
59.
29.
9.
2.
0.8
99.8
58.5
1980
(Base Year)
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel)
Motorcycle (2-stroke)
Motorcycle (4-stroke)
Total
% Reduction
(Fraction of Base Year)
33.8
3.9
16.3
54.0
28.5
4.4
19.2
52.1
3.52
22.4
4.2
18.2
44.8
17.04
14.4
3.9
16.6
34.9
35.37
211
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determined for application to the basic emission factors when specific
regional data (average speed, altitude of region, gross weight of
vehicle) is available to permit this adjustment.
Substantial effort was exercised to obtain specific motor vehicle
information characterizing Kern County such that a maximum number of
"region specific" adjustments could be made. Despite these adjustments,
it was recognized that the final determination of total motor vehicle
emissions involved a procedure containing several inherent limitations
which could cause misrepresentation of region-specific characteristics.
The least reliable aspect of the base year and projected baseline
motor vehicle pollutant source inventory concerns hydrocarbon reactivity
assumptions. Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely difficult and
complex issue. Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according
to the rate at which they react, the mixture that is potentially reactive,
or the products of reaction. The criterion for the ranking of hydrocarbon
reactivity is a controversial issue. The State Air Resources Board
reactivity scale is based on experiments performed in the Los Angeles
APCD smog chamber experiments. The Environmental Protection Agency
utilizes a reactivity scale based on experiments by Altshuller. The two
scales are highly discrepant. For instance, diesel exhaust, considered
unreactive according to the ARB, is 99 percent reactive according to the
EPA. Evaporated gasoline, considered 50 percent reactive by the ARB, is
93 percent reactive according to the EPA. Since the conventional oxidant
rollback procedure centers on the reduction of the reactive element of
the total hydrocarbon inventory, the uncertainty surrounding the reactivity
scale is probably the most significant limitation mitigating the calculation
of a meaningful air contaminant inventory.
The determination of total vehicular miles of travel (VMT) within a
specified region is best determined by transportation studies conducted in
the field. VMT may also be calculated based on vehicle registration and
annual vehicle mileage data for the region of study (the approach used by
State Air Resources Board), or based on total regional gas consumption
and vehicle gas mileage data. The latter approaches for calculating VMT
were expected to yield results in accord with the transportation study
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figures, provided the regional characterization of vehicular travel used
in the analysis was representative of actual travel in the region (i.e.,
the inflow vehicle characterization equal to outflow vehicle characteri-
zation). A comparison of the VMT determination as portrayed in Figure 6-8
reveals that VMT determinations based on motor vehicle data are lower
than those VMT values determined by either total regional gas consumption
or transportation studies. This suggested frequent through travel was
being carried out through each of the.regions. An examination of regional
transportation trip descriptions verified a substantial portion of
regional VMT generated by traffic on major highways passing through the
areas (4).
> ee.
LU
oi a.
> IE
=) LL.
Q O
I CO
CD O
Transportation (a)
Gas (b)
'Registrations (c)
(a) Based on Transportation Studies
(b) Based on Gas Consumption Estimate
(c) Based on Light Duty DMV Reaistrations
4-
4-
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Figure 6-8. Baseline Total VMT Determination for Kern County
*VMT was calculated based on total gas consumption projections
(see Appendix ) and an average light duty MV gas mileage
of 12.42 mi/gal (a figure provided by the National Safety
Council (3).
213
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Uhile there appears to be little question that transportation studies
yield the most reliable estimates of overall vehicular travel in the base
year, there is some question as to the accuracy of segregation of VMT in
terms of heavy duty and light duty vehicles, and in the projection of
these values to future years. The latter estimates involve reliance on
limited or conflicting data and as such have been subject to numerous
judgments in the analysis. These judgments involve the slection of various
conflicting studies projecting community growth parameters (population,
money earnings, vehicle registrations, highway and street expansions).
Another inherent difficulty in calculating future motor vehicle
pollution arises from the unpredictability of consumer preferences. A
number of unforseen factors may cause considerable changes in future
vehicle buyer habits. For example, it is noted that substantial increases
in small car sales were recorded during the first half of 1973, due quite
possibly, to the rapidly rising gasoline prices and the increased emphasis
on energy shortages. In view of recent air quality emphasis, and the
subsequent mandatory pollution control retrofit programs now being
discussed, speculations are strong that new and later model car sales will
increase significantly in the regions targeted for controls. For the
purpose of the analysis conducted here, consumer buying habits were
considered fixed, and the vehicle model year distribution and annual
mileage by model distribution were assumed the same for all years in the
estimates.
Another weakness in the emission inventory analysis concerns the
day-by-day variability of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles.
The analysis has included the assumption that pollutant emissions are
discharged at a relatively uniform rate throughout the year, when actually
there may be significant daily and seasonal variations which contribute to
a varying atmospheric oxidant potential. The availability of data and the
limited time available for this study did not permit a quantification of
the parameters associated with this issue.
The methodology utilized in calculating motor vehicles (see Appendix A)
emissions provides for an adjustment of the Federal Certification Test
Procedure emission rates on the basis of regional average vehicular speed.
The source of data for regional traffic speeds are transportation studies
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conducted by the Division of Highways (46). The average speeds are
reported in terms of "weighted average speeds," and are computed by
aggregating the product of VMT and arithmetic average speeds measured
for the various roads and highways throughout the region. The resultant
weighted average speed is therefore somewhat higher than the true arith-
metic average speed. Consequently the corresponding speed adjustment
factor for emissions is somewhat misleading. Due to an absence of other
vehicle speed data, the weighted average speeds were incorporated in the
analysis.
It is evident that the combined effect of the above limitations is
a basic uncertainty in the reliability of the emission inventory. A
further effect is the untenable status of pollution control strategies
which relay on the analysis. The assumptions and constraints contained
in the methodology are inherently unavoidable at this time. However,
the analysis presented herein is fully representative of current
methodology in motor vehicle emission estimation, and as such, represents
the most valid inventory update available at this time. Further study is
needed to qualify and improve the emission quantification procedures.
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6.1.3 Transportation
Highway System
Route 99 passes through the Bakersfield urban area and merges with
Interstate 5 about 25 miles to the south. The Origin-Destination Survey
in 1965 showed that of 12,998 auto driver trips (68) passing through the
Bakersfield urban area, 9390 stayed on Route 99. Interstate 5 is the
primary north-south facility through the western end of the county.
Route 58 cuts across Bakersfield in an east-west direction and then
turns southeast towards Edwards Air Force Base and Barstow. In
Bakersfield, Business Route 99 remains one of the most important north-
south traffic corridors, while Route 178 provides access to Lake Isabella
and Sequoia National Park.
Total travel in the Bakersfield urban area increased from 1.5
million daily vehicle miles of travel (VMT) in 1965 to 2.1 million VMT
in 1970 (71). Countrywide travel in 1970 was 6.2 million VMT on an
average weekday, with heavy-duty vehicles making up almost 11 percent
of the total.
Bus Transportation
The City of Bakersfield purchased the Bakersfield Transit System
in 1957 from the private operator. The Greater Bakersfield Transit
District was established in 1972. Transit ridership had declined to
less than one million passengers per year before the fares were reduced
recently (72). The fleet consists of 20 buses which provide regular
service over eight fixed routes and some charter service to private
schools.
Interstate bus transportation is provided by the Western Greyhound
Lines and Continental Trailways.
Other Forms of Transportation
The area is served by Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe as well as
Southern Pacific Company railroads. Railroad service is limited to
industrial, agricultural and commercial freight. No passenger train
service is available at this time.
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Kern County Airport is the major air terminal in the area where
regular flights are scheduled by United Airlines, Hughes Air West and
Golden Valley. There are 11 other general aviation and two military
airports in the county.
Travel Characteristics
Travel data for this area was derived from the Origin-Destination
Survey in the Bakersfield Urbanized Area, and countywide inventory and
projections carried out by the California Division of Highways in con-
junction with the National Highway Functional Classification and Meeds
Study. Backup data for the values quoted in this section can be found
in Appendix
The origin-destination study was conducted in 1965. The study
area included approximately 180 square miles of the urbanized area with
a population of 185,610. The survey showed that there were a total of
455,000 driver trips (70) made in the Bakersfield Study Area on an
average weekday. Of these, 83.6 percent were trips entirely within
the area, while 2.9 percent passed completely through the area.
Although 13.0 percent of dwelling units (70) had no vehicles available,
only 4,050, or 0.6 percent of total person trips, used public transit.
Almost one-half of all dwelling units had two or more vehicles in 1965.
Travel related to family business with 62 percent of the total
driver trips (70) by residents of the study area was the predominant
trip purpose. Trips related to earning a living made up 29 percent
of the total. The study also showed that while the overall auto
occupancy was 1.47, it was as low as 1.13 for work trips.
In 1973, the downtown area of Bakersfield had approximately
2600 off-street public and private parking spaces (73). No data was
available on curb parking. The 1965 survey showed that only in the
case of 2.3 percent of driver trips (70) in the total transportation
study area had to pay for the parking. The CBD attracted 20.3 percent
of all driver trips.
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Projections
As part of the national needs study, Division of Highways has
prepared 1990 projections of VMT for the Kern County. Intermediate
year travel was estimated by straight line interpolation from these
projections (see Table 6-9).
Total travel in Kern County is expected to incrsase by 45 percent
from 1970 to 1980, with greater growth taking placs within the Bakersfield
urban area than the remainder of the county. Route 58 Freeway is the only
major improvement under construction. It will be completed through the
urban area to connect with Route 99 by 1980. A number major north-south
streets will be extended south to tie in with the new facility.
Average speeds used in this study were considered representative
in the urban area (see Table 6-10). Local streets were assumed to
operate at 15 miles per hour in urban areas and 25 miles per hour in non-
urban areas. Speeds on other roads in non-urban areas were also assumed
to be 10 mph higher than urban speeds. Detailed summary of V71T estimates
are given in Appendix B.
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TABLE 6-9. DAILY VMT IN KERN COUNTY
(Expressed in Thousands of Miles)
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Vehicles: Gasoline
Diesel
Total
Base Year
(1971)
5778
272
441
713
1975
6736
330
536
866
1977
7215
359
583
942
1980
7934
403
653
1056
TABLE 6-10. AVERAGE SPEEDS IN KERN COUNTY (1971)
By Street Type Average Speed
Freeway 57.4
Arterial 38.0
Local 24.0
By Vehicle Type
Light Duty Vehicle 42 mph
Heavy Duty Vehicle 51 mph
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6.2 CONTROL MEASURE ASSESSMENT
In Section 3.2 of this report, each of the air pollution control
measures to be considered were briefly described in terms of its general
effectiveness, applicability, and feasibility. In this section (6.2),
each of the measures is evaluated for specific application in Kern County.
The discussion includes the operation of the control and the basis for the
estimated emission reduction to be expected from the control. Stationary
source controls are discussed in Section 6.2.1, aircraft controls in
6.2.2, and motor vehicle controls in 6.2.3.
6.2.1 Stationary Source Controls
The assessment of stationary source controls is very similar for the
three counties. This assessment has been carried out for San Joaquin
County with minor generalizations for Fresno and Kern Counties. The
reader is referred to Section 4.2.1.
6.2.2 Aircraft Controls
The emission reductions due to the modified taxi-idle procedure dis-
cussed in Section 3.2.2 of this report may be applied only on turbine-
powered aircraft. Meadows Field in Bakersfield is the only airport in
Kern County with turbine aircraft operations. Emissions of reactive hydro-
carbons is expected to be 0.03 tons/day from these aircraft in 1975 (see
Appendix C). If this measure were able to reduce these emissions by 50%,
the resultant reduction would be 0.015/tons day. This corresponds to only
0.04% of the total county baseline emissions in 1975. This miniscule
reduction does not appear to be worth the effort, and the measure is not
recommended for application in Kern County.
6.2.3 Motor Vehicle Controls
Motor vehicle control measures considered for use in Kern County are
of two basic types -- vehicle-oriented and system-oriented. Vehicle-
oriented controls are those which are applied directly to the individual
vehicles and include retrofit devices and inspection/maintenance. System-
oriented controls are those which involve users of transportation modes
collectively and include bus systems, carpools, parking controls, and so
on. Vehicle-oriented controls are discussed in 4.2.3.1 and system-
oriented controls in 4.2.3.2.
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6.2.3.1 Vehicle-Oriented Controls
Vehicle-oriented controls have been discussed for the general case
in Section 3.2.3.1. Since, among the three counties considered in this
study, there are no differences which would preclude use of one of these
controls within their boundaries, further discussion would be redundant;
the reader is referred to Section 3.2.3.1.
6.2.3.2 System-Oriented Control Measures
Section 3.2 of this report contains a general discussion of various
alternative control measures. A more specific review of these measures
as they apply to Kern County and especially to Bakersfield urbanized area
is included in this section.
Improvement of public transit with the intent to divert some auto
drivers is applicable only in the Bakersfield urbanized area where presently
approximately 34 percent of the countywide total daily VMT is generated.
Transit user base is small and historically it has been declining although
the trend appears to have reversed recently with a decrease in fares.
The present users consist almost entirely of transit dependent population.
With additional funds, especially operating subsidies, there is consider-
able room for improvement of the public transit system. It is doubtful,
however, that it would be possible to achieve a significant diversion
from autos to transit without direct controls on automobile use.
.There is no evidence of any extensive organized car pooling activity
in Bakersfield. There are no large employment centers with good
potential for car pooling. Vehicle-free zones, while useful for enhancing
specific local developments, would have no impact on areawide travel.
Parking control measures could be used to discourage some use of
automobiles for trips in the central area of Bakersfield. The'difficulty
with this measure is that increased parking cost would further weaken
the CBD and encourage the growth of suburbs, thus furthering the undesirable
trend. The only trips subject to diversion to transit or car pooling are
the non-discretionary trips such as the work trip. On an areawide basis,
little could be achieved since only 20.3 percent of all driver trips are
destined for the CBD.
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Exclusive bus/car pool lanes are not applicable for this area,
except possibly in the CBD where an increased number of buses might war-
rant separate lanes. Preemption of traffic signal green time by buses
may be a possibility. Traffic operation generally is very smooth and
neither of these measures would increase operating speed of buses signifi-
cantly. The Bakersfield urbanized area is relatively small and the
average trip length is around 2.2 miles. At these distances it is not
possible to provide a substantial overall advantage by exclusive lanes.
Imposition of tolls on the freeways would not be effective in reducing
VMT. Drivers would simply use the local streets creating congestion and
increased pollution.
Various tax disincentives might be considered since these could be
applied not only to the Bakersfield urbanized area but also to Kern
County. Special pollution tax charged on mileage of each motor vehicle
or on gasoline would tend to reduce auto usage. It would be extremely
regressive on limited income group, especially that portion which is
beyond the limits of transit service.
Four-day work week would reduce the work commute travel, but since
traffic congestion is not the problem, this measure is not applicable in
Kern County. Recreational and other non-work related travel would more
than replace work travel. Similarly, a moratorium on further traffic
improvements would have no effect on total travel. Drivers can tolerate
extreme levels of congestion, and the street system in Bakersfield is such
that the point where people would switch to transit would not be reached
for a long time even if all improvements were stopped right now.
Gasoline rationing is a direct control measure which could be used
to achieve reduction in vehicle miles of travel. Direct regulatory con-
trols are authoritarian in nature and characterized by mandatory policy,
rules and regulations. They leave little room for individual decision
making; consequently they are more predictable in the actual results.
The same goal which all other measures attempt to achieve by increased
cost and/or inconvenience -- reduction in VMT -- could be realized through
gasoline rationing.
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A broad spectrum of control measures have been examined, ranging from
expanding alternative means of transportation, to indirect controls by
various pricing mechanisms, and finally to direct control of gasoline
supplies. It must be recognized that the effectiveness and predictability
of final results is related to directness of the control measure. Direct
controls which affect most people, however, are also the least acceptable
by the public and they arouse the broadest opposition.
In considering various transportation control measures, i't is clear
that alternatives to private automobile must be provided before any far
reaching restrictions can be imposed. Thus, public transit must be im-
proved and car pooling should be encouraged. Some controls, such as
vehicle free zones, tolls on freeways, four-day work week schedule and
moratorium on traffic improvements, would either have no effect on the
pollution problem in Kern County or would only make matters worse.
Exclusive bus/car pool lanes or preemption of traffic signal green
time would not have any impact immediately, but these measures should be
planned for the time when the buses will make up a significant portion of
vehicular traffic in selected corridors. Parking control measures would
be effective only in Bakersfield central area and should be limited to
all-day parking. The tax disincentives would be effective for the entire
county, but they would be regressive on low income groups and adequate
alternative means of transportation is not available outside the urban
area. Finally, direct control of VMT by gasoline rationing could be used
to achieve the desired level of reduction. Since 1967 survey showed that
a substantial percent of total resident trips were related to leisure
activities, moderate rationing could be imposed without causing extreme
economic hardships.
Improvement of Public Transit
Public transit is important to the transportation needs and air
quality in the region. The low density land use pattern, however, is
not conducive to the efficient use of mass transit. Thus, the City had
to take over from a private operator in 1957. Greater Bakersfield Transit
District was established in 1972.
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The transit system operates a fleet of 20 buses, three of which
are used to provide charter service to private schools. All eight routes
pass through the CBD and operate on headways from 30 to 60 minutes.
Since the District took over the operation and additional funds from
SB325 became available, fares have been lowered from $0.30 within
Bakersfield and $0.40 outside the city to a uniform $0.25 charqe. This
fare reduction has produced about a 27 percent increase in patronage
during the spring of 1973 over the previous like period.
»
At the time of 1965 Origin-Destination Survey, only 0.6 percent of
all person trips in the Bakersfield urbanized area were made by public
transit. No attempt was made to develop a mode split model or some other
procedure for forecasting transit trips in this area. The District cur-
rently has an application pending with UMTA for acquisition of 14 new
buses, most of which are planned as replacement for older vehicles. A
comprehensive transit study, covering both short-range, immediate action
program and long-range planning will be initiated soon by the District to
improve the present service and to explore the potential for long-range
expansion of the transit system.
Meanwhile, the public attitude survey conducted in conjunction with
this study showed that the most desired features in a transit system,
rated higher than such amenities as modern, air-conditioned buses, are the
frequency of service and the convenience of bus stop locations. It has
also been observed more frequently that the present standard of one-
quarter mile walking distance for transit service coverage is too great.
Potential transit users do not like to -walk beyond one-eighth of a mile.
To achieve greater frequency of service, such as 10-15 minute head-
ways, and to provide more complete coverage needed to attract regular
auto users, the present bus system would have to be greatly expanded.
Assuming that this will be possible by capital grants and allowance of
greater percentage of SB325 for operating expenditures, some estimate can
be made as to what this would do to the total VMT in the region.
Areas similar to Bakersfield, but with a larger transit base, have
carried out transit studies and estimated that with considerable improve-
ment of transit system, ridership could be tripled by 1980. Assuming that
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Bakersfield, with the present small base of approximately 2,300 daily
transit users, could achieve greater percentage increase and manage
to quadruple its patronage, the transit system could carry 6,900 new
daily riders by 19$0. Furthermore, if it is optimistically assumed that
all these would switch from automobiles which in 1965 had an average
occupancy of T.47 and an average trip length of 2.2 miles, reduction
in.VMT because of expanded transit system can be calculated as follows:
6,900 * 1.47 x 2.2 = 10,326 VMT
This represents a reduction of 0.3 percent of VMT in the Bakersfield
Urban Area and approximately 0.1 percent of the projected total VMT for
the county.
Increased Car Pooling
Total vehicle miles of travel (VMT) can also be reduced by encourag-
ing car pooling, or sharing of private vehicles by several persons. Unlike
transit improvements, this measure deals almost exclusively with people
who presently own and use their automobiles. The work trip, which tradi-
tionally has the longest trip length and the lowest auto occupancy, is the
principal target.
The same urban characteristics which encourage use of public transit
also help car pooling -- scarcity and high cost of parking together with
traffic congestion. An additional very important factor is the presence
of large employers with fixed working hours. Staggered work hours
mitigate against car pooling. On the other hand, dispersed, low density
residential development is not as detrimental to car pooling as it is to
public transit.
The City of Bakersfield is not well suited for car pooling; however,
some potential exists in the Bakersfield central area, the Valley Plaza
Center, Kern State College, and Bakersfield College.
Limited studies of car pooling show that for the program to succeed
four ingredients are essential to its success:
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1. Public information
2. Incentives
3. Matching service
4. Continuity in support
Public information is critical to gain public support and to stimulate
demand for car pooling. Incentives are very desirable to motivate people
to join car pools. Positive response is usually received to incentives
which provide added convenience to car-poolers, such as special "parking
pool" facilities, use of company or agency cars, and preferential parking
treatment. Measures which would penalize driving alone, such as priority
ramps, freeway tolls and graduated license fees, are disliked even by
.people who are interested in car pooling.
General guidelines have been suggested (64) as to the type of
matching appropriate for different employee group sizes.
Potential Car Pool
Group Size Matching Technique
Less than 1,000 Manual matching, using an areawide map
1,000 to 5,000 Computer matching, based on grid system
Greater than 5,000 Computer matching, with automatic
address coding
In addition to incentives and car pool matching service, an active
and continuous support of the program is required by the management to
maintain interest and participation. This is particularly true in insti-
tutions such as universities where there is a large turnover and new
people have to be informed and encouraged to participate.
The 1965 Origin-Destination Survey showed that the average auto
occupancy for work trips in Bakersfield area was an extremely low 1.17
persons per car. In larger urban areas more suited for car pooling, it
has been possible to increase work trip occupancy from 1.20 to 1.45 at
the major work trip generators.
Assuming that by full cooperation and active support of all major
employers in the area similar results could be achieved in Bakersfield
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for about 30 percent of work trips, reduction in VMT for the 1965 base
year, when there were 73,350 person work trips, would have been:
73,350 x .70/1.17 = 43,900
73,350 x .30/1.40 = 15,700
Total driver trips= 59,600
Reduction of auto work trips from 62,510 to 59,600 with an average trip
length of approximately 2.5 miles would have meant a net reduction of
2,910 x 2.5 = 7,275 daily VMT. Travel by 1980 is expected to be slightly
more than double what it was in 1965. Thus, a reduction of 15,570 VMT
could be expected from a reasonably successful car pooling program in
Bakersfield by 1980.
This would mean a reduction of 0.5 percent VMT in the Bakersfield
Urban Area and less than 0.2 percent of the projected total VMT for the
Kern County by 1980.
Parking Control Measures
Parking control measures can be used to either discourage the use
of private vehicles or to increase the efficiency of their usage. This
can be accomplished by either limiting the number of parking spaces or
by controlling their use through pricing mechanisms. The measure is most
effective in the central business district.
In the absence of total land use planning, just limiting the number
of spaces or indiscriminately increasing their cost can injure the vita-
lity of the CBD. Such action would only promote urban sprawl by forcing
more businesses and their customers out to suburbs where there is no
alternative to private automobile. Parking control measure must be
directed to that segment of parkers who are likely to come to the CBD
regardless of controls, but who would use alternative means if parking
became too expensive or inconvenient. Long-term employee parking is the
only one that falls in this category in Bakersfield central city area.
There are no recent parking studies available in Bakersfield and,
thus, it is difficult to estimate an impact of parking control measure.
In 1973, approximately 2,600 off-street public and private parking spaces
were available. For $0.20 it was possible to park up to five hours in
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the lots, No information was readily available on curb spaces which are
generally designated for free, short-term parking from 30 minutes to two
hours.
A control measure of limiting construction of additional long-term
parking spaces along with increased long-term parking rates should help
to somewhat decrease exclusive use of private automobiles for work trips
to the CBD. The measure will require increased enforcement of time limits
in short-term parking locations. Moving of cars by all-day parkers during
the noon hours and coffee breaks would have to be prohibited. This,
however, may be extremely difficult to enforce.
It is estimated that with parking control measures, additional car
pooling of work trips would take place as well as increased use of
transit. If approximately 1,250 auto work trips to the CBD are diverted
to other modes, reduction of 6,250 daily VMT could be achieved by 1980.
This would mean a reduction of 0.2 percent VMT in the Bakersfield
Urban Area and less than 0.1 percent of the projected total VMT for Kern
County by 1980.
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6.3 PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY
Ultimately, the effectiveness of any control strategy will be
measured in terms of its ability to reduce emissions to the desired air
quality levels. As noted, the relationship between air pollutant emissions
and ambient air quality is not well understood, despite major efforts to
develop both sophisticated analytical and statistical models. Many of the
other limitations in the data bases and working assumptions have been
discussed.
The proposed control strategy fully recognizes inadequacies in the
data analyzed; it is presented to be as accurate a portrayal as possible
of the air pollution situation given the limits and constraints imposed
upon the study. Directionally, the implementation of many or all of the
controls will result in significantly improved air quality. In a tech-
nical sense, the proposed plan should allow for attainment of the air
quality standards by the 1977 target date.
In general, implementation of Phase I measures can be justified on
the basis of air quality improvements at reasonable costs and with minor
social impacts. These measures are therefore highly recommended for
implementation as soon as possible.
The impact of implementing the Phase II control measures is stagger-
ing, both in terms of economic costs and the societal disruptions which
would result from their institution. Also, it is not clear at this time
whether some of these measures are technologically feasible and/or
effective. Further evaluation and testing is clearly warranted for these
measures before they can be advocated on a wide-spread basis.
The necessity for Phase II control measures results from insufficient
emission reductions being demonstrably achieved from the Phase I measures.
The choice of which additional controls will actually be implemented
remains to be decided. The measures listed in this analysis were chosen
somewhat arbitrarily and are used more for illustrative purposes. They
are intended to indicate the severity of additional controls which appear
to be necessary to achieve the NAAQS. Other measures could easily have
been considered. To some extent, Phase II controls were aimed at con-
trolling heretofore uncontrolled sources, e.g. motorcycles and heavy duty
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vehicles. The difficulty of achieving additional controls after the
Phase I measures can be briefly summarized:
By 1975-1977, no single source category pre-dominates in the
emission inventory; that is, all categories contribute a little
to the overall problem.
Major pollution sources, e.g. stationary sources and light duty
vehicles, will be stringently controlled by 1975-1977, and
additional controls on these categories will be difficult to
achieve.
Minor pollution sources, e.g. motorcycles and heavy duty vehicles,
although uncontrolled, continue to be relatively small contribu-
tors to the problem; therefore, controls of these categories will
have only minor impact on total emissions.
The following graphs show the effect of the proposed TRW emission
control strategies for reactive hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. The
effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in relation to the allowable
emissions, which correspond to meeting the air quality standards. The
baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state and local controls which
are already, or will be, in effect on all types of sources. The curve
for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due to the proposed
Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles only. Other
curves show the reductions due to stationary source controls and Phase II
controls.
For these curves, "Stationary Source Controls" include gasoline mar-
keting loss controls, organic surface coating substitution, dry cleaning
vapor control, degreaser substitution, and burning regulation. "Motor
Vehicle Controls" include mandatory inspection/maintenance, oxidizing
catalytic converters, and the pre-1966 retrofit device. "Phase II
Controls" include the elimination of motorcycle use during smog season,
evaporative retrofit devices (light duty vehicles), and heavy duty vehicle
catalytic converter and evaporative retrofits plus HDV inspection/
maintenance with a 50% rejection rate. Each of these control measures is
discussed later in the text.
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Tables 6-11, 6-12, and 6-13 show the baseline motor vehicle
emissions inventory for reactive hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitro-
gen oxides, respectively, and itemize the effects on emissions of the
Phase I and Phase II vehicle-oriented control measures. Table 6-
shows the predicted inventory of emissions for 1975, 1977, and 1980 if
the recommended Phase I control measures are implemented.
50
40
ce
LLJ
>-
o
to
o
30
20
10
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(17.1 TONS/DAY)
(1) Baseline
(2) Stationary Source Controls
(3) Motor Vehicle Controls
(4) Phase II Controls
1970
I
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 6-9. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Kern County - Reactive Hydrocarbons
(1970 - 1980)
231
-------
400
300
Q
-^
OO
Z
o
ALL OWAB LE_E MISS IONS
(245 TONS/DAY)
200'r
100
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
1970 1972
1974 1976
YEAR
-H 1 I
1978 1980
Figure 6-10.
Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for
Kern County - Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980)
232
-------
TABLE 6-11. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
co
CO
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Phase II
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/Md
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Kern County
1971
Tons/day
30.3
3.0
1.6
1.4
36.3
1975
Tons/day
18.7
3.3
1.9
2.3
26.2
Reductions
Tons/day
-3.0
-0.7
-0.9
-4.6
21.6
-2.3
-2.5
-1.7
-11.1
15.1
Percent
11.5
2.7
3.4
17.6
82.4
8.8
9.5
6.5
42.4
57.6
1977
Tons/day
13.9
3.1
1.8
2.5
21.3
Reductions
Tons/day
-2.1
-0.4
-1.7
-4.2
17.1
Percent
9.8
1.9
8.0
19.7
80.3
-2.5
-1.7
-1.6
-10.0
11.3
11.7
8.0
7.5
46.9
53.1
1980
Tons/day
8.3
2.8
1.7
2.8
15.6
Reductions
Tons /day
-1.3
-0.2
-1.0
-2.5
13.1
-2.8
-0.9
-1.3
-7.5
8.5
Percent
8.3
1.3
6.4
16.0
84.0
1.8
5.8
8.3
48.1
54.5
a Based on oresently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evan. - 83 oercent effective, 75 nercent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from I/M
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 6-12. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65)
Inspection /Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Kern County
1971
Tons /day
209 . 0
20.0
10.0
2.0
241.0
1975
Tons/day
138.0
25.0
12.0
2.0
177.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-29.0
-1.0
-3.2
-33.2
144.0
Percent
16.4
0.6
1.8
18.8
81.3
1977
Tons /day
103.0
26.0
11.0
3.0
143.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-22.0
-0.5
-10.0
-32.5
111.0
Percent
15.4
0.3
7.0
22.7
77.6
1980
Tons /day
59.0
29.0
9.0
3.0
100.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-12.0
-0.1
-5.6
-17.7
82.0
Percent
12.0
0.1
5.6
17.7
82.0
ro
co
a Based on presently planned control oronrams
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicle - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 6-13. OXIDES OF NITROGEN EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65)
Total Reductions
Kern County
1971
Tons/day
33.8
3.4
16.3
53.5
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
1975
Tons/day
28.5
4.4
19.9
52.8
Reductions
Tons /day
-0.6
-0.6
52.2
Percent
1.1
1.1
98.9
1977
Tons /day
22.4
4.2
18.2
44.8
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.3
-0.3
44.5
Percent
0.7
0.7
99.3
1980
Tons /day
14.4
3.9
16.6
34.9
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.2
-0.2
34.7
Percent
0.6
0.6
99.4
ro
co
in
a) Based on presently planned control programs
Liqht Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 6-14. PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY - KERN COUNTY
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Production and
Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commer-
cial , and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral,
Metallurgical , and
Lumber
Subtotal Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
61
5.7
2.1
2.1
8.1
14
5.0
0.8
98.8
0.12
36.4
3.7
1.6
1.5
142.1
RHC
1.5
5.3
0.4
0.4
1.6
1.4
0.5
-
11.1
0.11
30.3
3.0
1.6
1.4
47.5
NOX
46
'-
-
-
-
1.9
-
7.5
55.4
0.08
33.8
3.9
16.3
-
109.5
CO
102
-
-
_
-
29
6
-
1
139.0
3
209
20
10
2
383
1975
THC
66
1.7
1.5
1.5
8.4
5.2
0.4
0.8
85.5
0.14
18.5
4.0
1.9
2.5
108.9
RHC
1.6
1.5
0.3
.
1.7
0.5
-
.
5.6
0.13
14.1
3.3
1.9
2.3
27.3
NOX
46
-
-
-
-
0.7
-
7.9
54.6
0.10
27.9
4.4
19.2
-
106.2
CO
102
-
-
-
-
10
1
1
1
115
4
105
25
12
2
263
1977
THC
69
0.7
1.1
1.6
8.6
5.3
0.4
0.9
87.6
0.16
12.6
3.8
1.8
2.8
108.8
RHC
1.7
0.7
0.2
-
1.7
0.5
-
-
4.8
0.14
9.7
3.1
1.8
2.5
22.0
NOX
46
-
-
-
-
0.7
-
8.0
54.4
0.11
22.1
4.2
18.2
-
99.3
CO
102
-
-
.
-
11
1
1
1
116
4
71
26
11
3
231
1980
THC
RHC
76 1.9
0.8 0.7
1.2 0.3
1.7
8.9
5.6
0.5
0.9
95.6
0.17
7.5
3.5
1.7
3.1
111.6
1.8
0.6
0.1
-
.
5.4
0.15
5.8
2.8
1.7
2.8
18.7
NOX
46
-
-
-
-
0.7
-
8.3
.
55.0
0.13
14.2
3.9
16.6
-
89.8
CO
102
-
-
- '
-
11
1
1
1
116
5
41
29
9
3
203
I
ro
co
cr>
-------
The control measures outlined are not new and have been proposed
elsewhere; no "magic solution" was found and only incremental improvements
can be expected from each measure. Over the short term, large emission
reductions will result from presently planned programs at all levels of
government -- Federal, state, and local. By the years 1975-77, the re-
maining uncontrolled emissions will come from many, many sources, the
majority of which are controlled. At this point in time, incremental air
quality improvements become more difficult, expensive, disruptive, and
publicly unacceptable. However, the severity of the air pollution left
few alternatives for measures which would be adequate to accomplish the
program requirements.
Phase I Measures (Recommended):
1. Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls - It is evident that as
exhaust hydrocarbon emissions are more stringently controlled, the per-
centage contribution of hydrocarbon emissions from evaporative losses due
to normal gasoline handling and transfer operations will increase signifi-
cantly. Therefore, it is recommended that controls be required to either
prevent or capture these vapor losses before escaping to the atmosphere.
Control systems for certain transfer operations are presently available
and should be installed as quickly as possible -- bulk terminals, under-
ground storage tanks. Implementation of this measure should result in a
reduction of reactive hydrocarbons of approximately 4.5 tons per day in
1975 and 5.8 tons per day by 1977.
2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - Spurred in part by their con-
tribution to the air pollution problem, the paint and varnish industry
has for some time been engaged in research and development of less
polluting surface coating formulations. Examples of new formulations
entering these markets are water-based or high solids content products.
It has been estimated by representatives in the industry that significant
inroads can be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute less reactive sur-
face coatings for certain applications. Implementation of such a measure
is estimated to eliminate about 0.1 and 0.2 tons per day of reactive
hydrocarbons by 1975 and 1977, respectively.
237
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3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - Certain large dry cleaning plants continue
to use reactive petroleum solvents in their normal operations. In these
plants, it is possible to install activated carbon adsorption systems to
control solvent vapors. Implementation of this measure should result in
approximately 0.2 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons being eliminated
in both 1975 and 1977.
4. Degreaser Substitution - In areas with acute air pollution, substitu-
tion of less reactive solvents for presently used degreaser solvents is a
control measure which can readily be implemented. Widespread institution
of this control measure should result in approximately 0.3 tons of re-
active hydrocarbons being removed from the atmosphere in both 1975 and
1977.
5. Burning Regulation - Both current and proposed Air Resources Board
regulations for backyard, agricultural, and lumber industry incineration
practices are aimed at either restricting incineration or requiring more
efficient burning practices. It is estimated that such regulations will
result in a reduction from baseline year emissions of 1.5 tons per day
of reactive hydrocarbons by 1975 and 1.6 tons per day by 1977.
6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - In an attempt to derive the full
benefit from both new and used car emission controls, it is recommended
that a mandatory annual inspection/maintenance program be established.
Initially, to minimize many of the administrative and technical problems
associated with instituting such a program, it is recommended that an
idle emissions test only be required at the state owned and operated test
facilities. After the program has been operative for several years and
most of the administrative details adequately worked out, it is recommended
that a loaded emissions testing program be instituted by upgrading the
testing facilities with the necessary additional equipment and personnel.
Implementation of this two stage program should result in 0.9 tons per day
of reactive hydrocarbons being eliminated by 1975. In 1977, with the im-
plementation of a loaded emissions test approximately 1.7 tons per day of
reactive hydrocarbon can be removed from the atmosphere.
7. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - The California Air Resources Board
has been and is currently evaluating catalytic converters as a retrofit
238
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for pre-1974 vehicles. Preliminary data indicate that large emission re-
ductions are possible with these devices. The CARB has proposed wide-spread
use of this retrofit as a measure for meeting the NAAQS, even though ques-
tions relating to the availability of lead free fuel and the overall
applicability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles remain unresolved.
i
Catalysts developed to date require the use of lead-free gasoline to pre-
vent poisoning of the catalytic element. It remains to be seen what
percentage of the older vehicles can operate satisfactorily on lead-free
gasoline. Assuming portions of the 1970-1974 and 1966-1969 vehicles can
be retrofitted with catalytic converters, it is estimated a reduction of
3 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons can be achieved by 1975 and 2.1
tons per day by 1977.
8. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - The California Air Resources Board has
accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon and oxides of nitrogen
emissions from 1955-1965 vehicles. These devices have thus far been
required only in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins.
The devices are essentially a vacuum spark advance disconnect (VSAD) with
a thermal override switch to prevent overheating, or an electronic ignition
system. Implementation of this measure should reduce reactive hydrocarbon
emissions by 0.7 tons per day in 1975 and 0.4 tons per day in 1977.
9. Mass Transit - Actually three measures under the heading of mass
transit are recommended for implementation in San Joaquin County:
Improved Public Transit, Increased Car Pooling, and Parking Control.
Improved Public Transit - To increase public transit use through
greater frequency of service, such as 10-15 minute headways, and
more complete coverage, it is recommended that the present bus
system be greatly expanded. Assuming that this will be possible
by capital grants and allowance of a greater percentage of SB325
for operating expenditures, some estimate can be made as to what
this would do to the total VMT in the region. If ridership is
quadrupled by 1980, VMT will be reduced by 10,326. This is a
0.1 percent reduction in 1980 county VMT.
t Increased Car Pooling - If, through incentives, car pool matching,
and an energetic public information program, car pooling can
239
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reduce work trips by 30 percent, daily VMT will be reduced by
7,275 in 1980. This corresponds to a 0.2 percent reduction of
the projected VMT in San Joaquin County.
t Parking Control - A control measure of limiting construction of
additional long-term parking spaces along with increased long-term
parking rates should help to somewhat decrease exclusive use of
private automobiles for work trips to the CBD. The measure will
require increased enforcement of parking time limits in short-term
parking locations as well as prohibition of meter feeding by all-
day parkers. The result will be a reduction of 6,250 in daily VMT
in 1980, corresponding to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent of
the projected total in San Joaquin County.
In summary, implementation of a series of mass transit improvements
plus incentives to discourage the private use of the automobile will re-
sult in very modest VMT reductions by 1975-1977. Furthermore, these
improvements will have negligible impact on hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide emissions in 1975 and 1977. '
Phase II Measures (If Demonstratably Warranted):
1. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Application of the Phase I
control measures on organic solvent uses will result in significant
hydrocarbon emission reductions. However, if warranted, it appears that
additional reductions may be achievable. These additional reductions will
be increasingly difficult to obtain since the remaining emissions are
either under tight control already or the sources are very minor and
diffuse, making them difficult to bring under control. Examples of this
latter category are organic solvent uses in printing operations, pharma-
ceutical uses, insecticide/pesticide applications, rubber tire
manufacturing, .plastic and putty manufacturing, etc. Individually, the
sources are minor; in their composite they are presently a significant
uncontrolled source category. No reductions are claimed from possible
controls from these sources in this analysis. As an alternative, however,
it is certainly recommended that a closer examination be made of these
minor polluters.
240
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2. Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - As shown previously,
uncontrolled motorcycle emissions are projected to be among the highest
of any motor vehicle type on a grams per mile basis. Their overall con-
tribution to the pollution problem has been minor due to the relatively
low number of vehicles and annual mileages accumulated. However, as the
number of motorcycles increases v(uncontrolled) and as more controls are
imposed on light and heavy duty vehicles, their emission contribution
will become more significant. Two-stroke motorcycles, especially, are
notoriously high emitters. In view of the projected importance of this
source category, a ban on motorcycles during the summer months when smog
is most intense, is a possible control measure. Part of the rationale
for this control is that motorcycles are used primarily for recreational
purposes, rather than for essential trip-making. A ban on motorcycles
during the smog season is estimated to eliminate 2.3 tons of reactive
hydrocarbons in 1975 and 2.5 tons in 1977.
3. Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance, Catalytic Converter, and
Evaporative Retrofits - For essentially the same reasons outlined under
light duty vehicles, mandatory inspection/maintenance for heavy duty
vehicles can be an effective control measure. Limited test data is
available and has demonstrated its feasibility and effectiveness as a
control measure.
A limited amount of data exists demonstrating the effectiveness and
feasibility of heavy duty catalytic converter and evaporative retrofits
as potential control measures. More extensive field testing is necessary,
however, before widespread implementation of these measures can be war-
ranted. It is estimated about 1.7 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons
could be eliminated with these three control measures by 1975, and 1.6
tons per day by 1977.
4. Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit - Still another retrofit being
considered for light duty vehicles (pre-1970) is an evaporative control
device. The GARB is currently investigating the feasibility of this type
of device and if demonstrated effective, they may advocate its use. Others
have pointed to the need for such controls but actual working prototypes
and field testing data are limited at this time. The technical obstacles
appear to be impeding widespread application of this control measure.
241
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Also, since the device is to be used on pre-1970 vehicles, its effective-
ness decreases with time due to normal attrition of vehicles which can be
retrofitted with such devices. Nevertheless, if all the difficulties
with this control can be eliminated, it is. estimated 2.5 tons per day of
reactive hydrocarbons can be reduced in 1975 and 1.7 tons per day in 1977.
5. VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing - As a last resort type con-
trol , or after implementation of all Phase I measures, additional reductions
can be achieved by a program to reduce vehicle miles travelled (VMT) through
gasoline rationing. In light of recent publicity declaring gasoline
shortages and/or the energy crises, the public appears to be ready to
accept a modest level of fuel rationing. Rationing should be viewed
strictly ,as an interim control to achieve modest reductions. Attempts to
impose large scale rationing upon the public will result in numerous un-
desirable consequences. The effectiveness of gasoline rationing decreases
as vehicular exhaust emission characteristics decrease. In fact, if
massive rationing is contemplated, the value of extensive retrofitting
programs becomes somewhat questionable. As the last measure to be imple-
mented, it appears that while no VMT reduction of light duty vehicles is
necessary for attainment of the oxidant standard by 1977 if Measures 1-5
in Phase II are imposed, a 47 percent VMT reduction would be required if
only the Phase I measures were implemented (including petroleum marketing
effect).
242
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7.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF STRATEGY
The evaluation of socio-economic impacts of the proposed strategy is
divided into three areas. In Section 7.1, the costs of the stationary and
vehicle-oriented mobile source measures recommended in Phase I are calcu-
lated according to the best available data. The system-oriented measures
will have negligible economic impact for the citizen and are not discussed.
No attempt has been made to quantify Phase II measure costs because of the
uncertainty of the data and implementation procedure. Section 7.2 presents
a discussion of the social impact of the strategy, focusing primarily on
the mobile source measures. Finally, an attitude survey has been under-
taken as part of this study; results for San Joaquin, Fresno, and Kern
counties and for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin in general are discussed
in Section 7.3.
7.1 COSTS OF STRATEGY
This section summarizes the estimated costs due to the proposed
control measures for San Joaquin County, Fresno County, and Kern County.
The measures are first discussed individually and a table for each
county showing the costs per measure, the total strategy costs, and the
per capita costs for each county follows the discussion. No cost estimates
for Phase II measures has been attempted, due to the appreciable uncertain-
ty of the raw cost data for these measures.
7.1.1 Stationary Source Controls
1. Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control - Full vapor recovery
from gasoline marking operations consists essentially of two vapor return
systems; one system transferring vapor from the underground storage tank
to the delivery truck; and one system transferring vapor from the vehicle
gas tank to the underground storage tank. The cost of retrofitting
service stations with the vehicle return system has been estimated in a
study performed for the American Petroleum Institute (55) to be $5,000
per station. The cost of providing new service stations with such a
system was estimated to be $2,565 per station. In addition, yearly main-
tenance cost was estimated to be $30 per station. The cost of retrofitting
243
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service stations with an underground storage tank vapor return is
mated to be $1,300 per station (57). This cost was obtained from a
range of cost estimates for such a system of from $900 to $2,000 per
station. Recently, the Los Angeles County APCD published figures which
indicated a cost of roughly $630 per station for the identical system (74).
Annual costs as well as the cost of fitting new stations with such a system
are negligible. Thus, the total retrofit cost for full vapor recovery from
an existing service station is $6,300, with a $30 per year maintenance
cost. The cost to new stations is $2,565, with a $30 per year maintenance
cost.
The number of service stations in each county was obtained from the
APCD, while the growth rate for new service station construction was
assumed to be the same as the growth rate for the light-duty motor vehicle
population in the county. The estimated number of service stations, in
each county was used to predict the initial and annual costs of vapor
recovery.
The economic savings due to the recovery of the gasoline vapors has
not been quantitatively estimated here (although it should be substantial).
This is because of the present uncertainty in the price of gasoline and
the fact that the petroleum industry must allocate the capital for these
systems immediately. Whether they would choose to recover these funds
from the consumer (by increasing the price of gasoline), by waiting long
enough for the recovered gasoline to pay for the systems, or by some com-
bination of these two, is not known.
2. Solvent Use Controls - The cost of solvent use controls has been
estimated for Los Angeles County at $4,500,000 (30). This represented
the cost of development of the appropriate solvents. Once developed,
the production cost should be similar to present production costs. Hence,
this development cost should be apportioned across the nation where such
regulations are being applied. In this case, the cost becomes negligible
with respect to other costs incurred under the proposed strategy, and will
be neglected.
3. Burning Regulation - More stringent burning regulation will affect
farmers, the lumber industry, and incinerator operations; however, the
economic impact is expected to be negligible.
244
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7.1.2 Mobile Source Controls
4. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Part I - Idle Test, 10% Rejection Rate. According to a California
Air Resources Board study (75), the cost of an idle-mode inspection and
maintenance program conducted at state-owned and operated centers can be
summarized as follows:
Initial acquisition cost = $1.21/vehicle
to the state
Annual costs to the vehicle owners
Inspection fee = $0.96/vehicle
Source and repair cost = $7.20/vehicle (at a 10% failure rate)
Potential fuel savings = -$2.66/vehicle (at a 10% failure rate)
Annual cost to government
Lost gasoline tax revenues = $1,33/vehicle (at a 10% failure rate)
Total annual cost = $6.83/vehicle (at a 10% failure rate)
Part II - Loaded Test, 50% Rejection Rate. According to the CARB
study (75), the most cost effective program for motor vehicle inspection
and maintenance consists of a key-mode (loaded emissions) test conducted
at state-owned and operated centers. Under this set-up, the initial costs
are estimated to $1.98 per vehicle while annual costs (assuming a 50 per-
cent rejection rate) are estimated to be $10.23 per vehicle. This figure
is arrived at under the following assumptions:
Annual inspection fee $ 1.05 per vehicle
Maintenance cost $13.35 per vehicle
Potential fuel savings -$ 8.35 per vehicle
Lost gasoline tax revenue $ 4.18 per vehicle
Total annual cost . $10.23 per vehicle per year
These costs have been apportioned by population for each of the
three counties and appear in 'Table 7-1, 7-2, and 7-3.
245
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5. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - A catalytic converter retrofit for
75 percent of 1971-1974 model year vehicles and 20 percent of 1966-1970
model year vehicles will cost about $175 per vehicle. Total costs were
estimated using the projected number of vehicles in these categories.
6. Pre-1966 Retrofit - According to California Air Resources Board figures,
a reasonable cost for this retrofit is $35 per vehicle. Total costs were
estimated using the projected number of vehicles in this category.
246
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TABLE 7-1. STRATEGY COSTS IN SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
CONTROL MEASURE
Stationary Source Controls
Gasoline Marketing
Evaporative Loss
Control
Solvent Use Controls
Burning Regulation
Mobile Source Controls
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Part I - Idle Test, 10%
Rejection Rate
Part II - Loaded Test, 50%
Rejection Rate
Oxidizing Catalytic
Converters
Pre-1966 Retrofit
TOTAL COST3
PER CAPITA COSTa
TYPE OF NUMBER OF COST PER
APPLICABLE UNIT APPLICABLE UNITS APPLICABLE
IN COUNTY IN 1975 UNIT
Filling Stations 855 ' $6300 (Existing)
$2565 (New)
Dry Cleaners, Degreasers,
Users of Surface Coating
Farms, Lumber mills,
Incinerator Sites
Licensed LDV 179,000
Licensed LDV 179,000 $6
Portion of
1966-1974 LDV 59,100 $ 175
1955-1965 LDV 47,640 $ 35
TOTAL
INITIAL
COST
$5,386,000
Negl igible
Negligible
$ 216,000
$ 360,000
$10,343,000
$ 1,667,000
$17,672,000
$ 56
TOTAL \
ANNUAL \
COST V
$ 80,000
Negligible
Negligible
$915,000
$888,000
--
--
$1,883,000
$6
Including Inspection/Maintenance Part II
ro
-------
TABLE 7-2. STRATEGY COSTS IN FRESNO COUNTY
CONTROL MEASURE
Stationary Source Controls
Gasoline Marketing
Evaporative Loss
Control
Solvent Use Controls
Burning Regulation
Mobile Source Controls
TYPE OF NUMBER OF
APPLICABLE UNIT APPLICABLE UNITS
IN COUNTY IN 1975
Filling Stations 1 ,036
Dry Cleaners, Degreasers,
Users of Surface Coating
Farms, Lumber mills,
Incinerator Sites
COST PER TOTAL
APPLICABLE INITIAL
UNIT COST
$6300 (Existing) $6,527,000
$2565 (New)
Negligible
Negligible
TOTAL \
ANNUAL I
COST
$ 77,000
Negligible
Negligible
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Part I - Idle Test, 10%
Rejection Rate
Part II - Loaded Test, 50%
Rejection Rate
Oxidizing Catalytic
Converters
Pre-1966 Retrofit
TOTAL COST3
PER CAPITA COST3
Including Inspection/Maintenance
Licensed LDV 246,200
Licensed LDV 246,200
Portion of
1966-1974 LDV 92,400
1955-1965 LDV 47,600
Part II
$ 378,000
$6 $ 500,000
$ 175 $16,168,000
$ 35 1,666,000
$24,739,000
$ 57
$1,249,000
$1,212,000
--
--
$2,538,000
$6
-PS.
CO
-------
TABLE 7-3. STRATEGY COSTS IN KERN COUNTY
CONTROL MEASURE
Stationary Source Controls
Gasoline Marketing
Evaporative Loss
Control
Solvent Use Controls
Burning Regulation
Mobile Source Controls
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Part I - Idle Test, 10%
Rejection Rate
Part II - Loaded Test, 50%
Rejection Rate
Oxidizing Catalytic
Converters
Pre-1966 Retrofit
TOTAL COST3
PER CAPITA COST3
3Not including Inspection/Maintenance
TYPE OF NUMBER OF
APPLICABLE UNIT APPLICABLE UNITS
IN COUNTY IN 1975
Filling Stations 625
Dry Cleaners, Degreasers,
Users of Surface Coating
Farms, Lumber mills,
Incinerator Sites
Licensed LDV 201,200
Licensed LDV 201,200
Portion of
1966-1974 LDV 67,000
1955-1965 LDV 53,100
Part II
COST PER TOTAL
APPLICABLE INITIAL
UNIT COST
$6300 (Existing) $3,938,000
$2565 (New)
Negligible
Negligible
$ 302,000
$6 $ 420,000
$ 175 $11,725,000
$ 35 1,859,000
$17,824,000
$ 57
TOTAL
ANNUAL
COST
$ 52,000
Negligible
Negligible
$1,025,000
$ 994,000
__
$2,071,000
$7
IVJ
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7.2 SOCIAL IMPACT OF STRATEGY
Social impacts are non-monetary costs attributable to the imposition
of a set of constraints. These impacts are generally measured by the loss
of time, opportunity, and/or inconvenience. The magnitude of the impacts
is primarily a function of age, race, and income level. Measures which
are intended to influence, control, or restrict the ownership and use of
motor vehicles will, in general, result in social impacts. In a similar
and related manner, measures which affect personal mobility, mode choice
decisions, and regional access also induce social costs. To date, due to
the very nature of social impacts, it has been difficult to quantitatively
evaluate them. For example, only a limited amount of research has been
devoted to estimating lost-opportunity costs with respect to not making a
trip. However, several studies involving Los Angeles have been published
in attempts to quantify these impacts in a particular locale. Data from
these studies have been used in the following discussion, under the
assumption that a reasonable number of similarities between Los Angeles
and each of the three major urban areas exists for quantitative impact
evaluation.
It will be important for APCD's and planning agencies to anticipate
and minimize the impact of controls where possible. Increased public
awareness and concern have been largely responsible for the desires to
live in a clean environment. In addition, public participation in the
decision making process will continue to be crucial to the orderly transition
and acceptability of various controls. To be meaningful, citizen participa-
tion must be encouraged at the local and county levels. Only then can the
final decisions concerning which controls are applicable for a given region
be complete and a reflection of the public's desires; this in turn will
result in minimizing the social impacts.
This section (7.2) presents an analysis of the types of social impacts
which are likely to result from the implementation of the recommended
control measures. Stationary source and vehicle-oriented mobile source
measures are discussed in Section 7.2.1; measures involving the transporta-
tion system are discussed in Section 7.2.2. The former are more simply
quantified; the latter are more complicated and are discussed at length.
250
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7.2.1 Stationary Source Measures and Vehicle Oriented Mobile Source Measures
The per capita costs of the stationary source control measures and
the vehicle-oriented control measures recommended in this study have been
shown to be nominal. The actual distribution of the vehicle costs may
tend to be socially regressive, in that the poor elements of the population
experience a heavier burden by comparison when required to pay the costs
of retrofit devi es and vehicle maintenance. For example, the cost of the
pre-1966 Retrofit measure and the maintenance cost of vehicles rejected
during the inspection procedure are most likely to affect the poor more
strongly than the middle class and the rich, since the poor are .more
likely to own the older and poorly maintained vehicles. The total of
these two costs, as estimated in Section 7.1, are large compared to the
probable value of the vehicles in these categories in 1975 and 1977.
Redistribution of these costs has been the subject of numerous research
efforts in the state of California. Among the recent proposals for
consideration are the following:
Alternative Payment Schemes
0 User-Pays -- the cost of a control strategy is totally
assumed by the owners of the vehicles affected.
Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle-Mile-Driver -- the total
annualized regional costs are divided by the annual
vehicle miles driven.
Uniform-Payment-Per Vehicle -- the total annualized regional
costs are divided by the number of light duty vehicles in
the basin. Each vehicle owner then pays an identical amount
per vehicle. Payment could be made by a uniform increase
in vehicle registration fees.
t Income-Proportional -- payment of the control strategy is made
on a scale that is directly proportional to income. For
this scheme, everyone in the region - not just those owning
vehicles - is responsible for financing the additional
controls.
In the above list, the user pays scheme must be regarded as the
most regressive. That is, the vehicle ownership by model year is suffi-
ciently biased that the largest burden rests on the group with the smallest
income. Conversely, the income proportional scheme is the least regressive
in this sense.
251
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7.2.2 Transportation System Measures
7.2.2.1 Impact on Socio-Economic Groups
The diversity of the region's population and lifestyles results in
non-uniform impacts to different socio-economic groups from the implemen-
tation of various transportation control measures. In an attempt to fully
consider the issue of equity, it is necessary to be cognizant of the
groups which are unduly discriminated against by the different control
schemes. Special care must be exercised to remain sensitive to the needs
of the young, aged, poor, and minorities. In many instances, transporta-
tion planners have either inadvertantly or systematically failed to meet
the requirements of these groups.
By necessity, the young, old, poor, and minority classes have accounted
for a disproportionate share of transit ridership. Since these groups own
fewer motor vehicles, their trips may be viewed as having more of a required
nature than average trips undertaken. For example, these groups make
fewer pleasur* or recreational type trips. Controls directed at uniformly
reducing VMT may, therefore, impact these socio-economic groups more than
the average groups (i.e., white, middle age, and middle income). Factors
which must be carefully considered in assessing the impact on these special
groups are presented below.
The Young and Aged
Without question, private automobiles are the dominant means of
personal transportation; yet, because of age considerations, large segments
of our young and elderly population groups are excluded from this transpor-
tation mode, unless chauffeured. The following table illustrates the
percentage breakdown of auto ownership by age category.
TABLE 7-4
CAR OWNERSHIP BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD
Age of Household Head
Under 25
25-34 .
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 and over
% of
No Car
19.3
12.0
11.6
13.6
19.7
44.9
Households Owning
At Least One Car
80.1
88.0
88.4
86.4
80.3
55.1
.252
-------
In certain regards, the young and old stand to benefit from the
imposition of transportation controls; in other situations, these popula-
tion groups will be adversely affected. Currently, the young and old
without autos represent a large segment of a transit systems "captive
riders." As shown above, nearly a fifth of those under 25 and more than
two-fifths of those over 65 do not own private autos. This implies these
families are totally dependent on either public transportation or others
with cars for satisfying their transportation requirements. Measures to
improve mass transit, such as more frequent, faster, and cheaper service,
will in general, benefit the young and old.
On the other hand, many trips undertaken by the young and old are
accomplished by chauffeuring activity. Frequently, for reasons of safety,
inconvenience or physical handicaps, it is necessary for the young and old
to depend on friends or relatives for escorted auto transportation. Under
these conditions, VMT reduction measures such as gasoline rationing may
adversely affect the young and old. Typically, these trips are of a
required nature, e.g., school, dentist, doctor, and uniform restraints on
VMT could result in significant inconveniences.
The impact on the younger segments of a population tend to be less
critical than similar impacts on the elderly. Supposedly, lost opportunity
costs and inconveniences are taken more in stride by the young since
"their day will come." With the coming "of age", the younger age groups
rapidly gain mobility and accessibility; also, physical handicaps pose
less problems with alternative modes of transportation (e.g., walking,
bicycling, etc.).
The problems of transportation and the elderly are of a slightly
different nature. In fact, "many older people see transportation as the-
major impediment to their having a personally meaningful and socially
constructive retirement. Only a small fraction of the elderly own auto-
mobiles and have driver's licenses. This is due primarily to their
economic status, and secondarily to health reasons." (80)
In some studies it has been noted that those elderly persons with
driver's licenses accounted for more than half of all trips attributable
to elderly persons, in a particular area. According to one study (80),
.253
-------
"This indicates that there may be a significant latent demand
for public transportation for the elderly. Indeed, when Los
Angeles reduced off-peak fares for the low income elderly by
33 percent, there was a 24 percent increase in total rider-
ship, and a 10 percent shift in ridership from peak to non-
peak hours. The reasons for the high price elasticity of
demand among older people are their low incomes and the fact
that few of the elderly embark on the inelastic work trip."
Viewed in this context, controls which will facilitate improved
transit services will result in a positive benefit for many of the young
and elderly population segments. Restrictions on auto usage will have
similar impacts on most age categories but, overall, they will affect the
young and aged proportionally less because of auto ownership character-
istics.
The Poor
By definition, the lower income classes are less able to afford
private automobile transportation. Consequently, their position is
closely related to the problems of the young and elderly; as a group, the
poor are, for the most part, dependent on public transportation for satis-
fying most trip making needs. Table 7-5 below presents data on auto
ownership by income level.
TABLE 7-5
CAR OWNERSHIP BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME LEVEL (81)
Percent of Household Owning
Household Income No Car At Least One Car
Under $3000 57.5 42.5
$3000 - $4999 30.8 69.2
$5000 - $7499 13.6 86.4
$7500 - $9999 8.4 91.5
$10,000 - $14,999 4.1 95.9
$15,000 and over 3.8 96.2
Source:
In considering differential impacts by income levels, the means by
which trip purposes are fulfilled is the critical variable. The impacts
can be divided into those associated with transit usage and automobile
usage.
254
-------
The impacts on the poor from improvements in public transit are
analogous, in many respects, to those previously discussed with regard to
the young and the aged. Most likely, significant benefits will result
from these measures. In addition, it has been suggested that transporta-
tion deficiencies are directly relatable to poverty. Thus, improvements
in public transportation may contribute to easing some of our social and
urban problems as well. In a study of the feasibility of establishing
fare-free transit in the Los Angeles region, it was noted (80):
"Since unemployment is the major issue in poverty-oriented study
and research, many assert that there is a strong relationship
between unemployment and limited transportation to appropriate
job centers. Conclusions of many investigative reports on the
racial flareups of the 60's concurred and listed public transit
improvements among the most vital of their recommendations.
The McCone Commission made such a recommendation following an
investigation of background causes of the Watts riots."
While the report cited the relationship between transportation and
unemployment rates (and therefore poverty groups), it was careful to
point out that discriminatory hiring practices and the competitive job
markets were also major determinants of high unemployment.
"While non-work trips are generally considered to be more
responsive to fare changes, in the case of bus services the
inconveniences of boarding and departing from the vehicle with
parcels, of making necessary transfers, and of complying with
schedules and routes seem to suppress this elastic behavior
for shopping trips. In the Southern Los Angeles portion of
the employment study which has been discussed, residents in
a community with a.50 percent car ownership rate accomplished
94 percent of food shopping trips via private auto or taxi.
"Assuming that service limitations of bus service could be
reduced, it is more likely that benefits from improvements
in non-work oriented travel would be felt more consistently
within low income groups than benefits from enhanced employ-
ment opportunities. Shopping facilities can be clearly
identified within a community or region, and providing that
an individual has money to do so, he may utilize those
facilities once he has gained access to them."
. In other words, improved transit tends to equalize accessibility
among income levels, whereas it is currently more readily available to
higher income groups.
255
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The impact of controls for low income auto owners is quite different.
Currently, as the average income increases, so does the average annual
miles traveled per automobile. Equally interesting to note is that up to
incomes of $7500 per year, the percentage of total VMT by income group is
even less than the percentage of vehicles owned by these groups. This is
due primarily to higher income groups owning more than one auto per
household.
Time penalties are generally perceived as more important with higher
income groups. In this respect then, equivalent time penalties would
result in a more significant impact on the rich or those who place high
values on time inconveniences. Such impacts could result from measures
such as freeway metering, parking restrictions, auto free zones, or
exclusive bus lanes.
The Minority Groups
The impacts likely to be incurred by minority groups from transporta-
tion controls are similar, in many respects, to those impacts already
discussed in the previous two sections. Minority groups have a higher
tendency to be poor, without autos, and largely dependent on public
transportation services to meet many basic trip-making requirements.
Measures designed to improve public transit will most-likely result in a
positive impact on the many transit dependent minorities. Controls on
vehicle usage requiring substantial economic costs will place heavy
burdens on the large share of minorities with low incomes.
Another issue facing minority groups is that of accessibility. As
stated previously, inadequate or poor transit service was cited as one
determinant of the Watts riots. Apparently, the lack of mobility contrib-
uted to the frustrations of unemployment and impeded any attempts to find
meaningful work. Employment centers and transportation systems are inter-
related. Urban transportation systems which promote dependence on auto-
mobile travel systematically exclude many minorities living in poor
neighborhoods from equal opportunities. Control measures contemplated
should carefully consider potential obstacles to the upward mobility and
equal opportunities of the minority classes.
256
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7.2.2.2 IMPACT ON MOBILITY PATTERNS
Among the control measures being recommended are those which will
directly impact existing mobility patterns, or when and where people
travel. These measures are dealt with in the following discussions.
Typical Urban Driving Patterns
The magnitude of the social impact to be expected from any measures
depend heavily on regional characteristics. Present driving patterns in
the San Joaquin Valley have evolved slowly and intuition suggests these
patterns will show a high degree of resistance to change.
Reducing Optional Trips
When a person makes a trip from one location to another, it is done
to serve some human need or desire. The choice of travel mode, as well
as the actual decision to travel, both involve a human decision process.
Both decisions are probably made rationally with due consideration for a
number of actual and apparent factors. The ability of various individuals
to accurately assess these factors varies, but overall, incorrect judge-
ments in both directions tend to offset each other. Upon consideration of
the actual and perceived factors relating to a trip, the individual
decides whether or not to make the trip and by which mode to travel. Once
the decision has been made to make the trip, to eliminate or prohibit this
trip would mean that some need would be unmet or purpose unfulfilled.
It must be emphasized that attempting to define which travel is
optional or unnecessary is difficult. One obvious difficulty involves
the definitions of terms such as, "necessary, optional, and essential."
Since we are dealing with personal value judgements, what one individual
views as unnecessary may be considered very essential to another
individual. Even for the same individual and the same trip, circumstances
frequently change so that the individual's perception of the need to make
the trip change. Another difficulty encountered in assessing individual
needs is the dynamic state of decision making as it relates to human
values with the passage of time. The steady growth of VMT experienced
since World War II has in large part been attributable to an improved
quality of life. This affluence has resulted in a higher standard of
257
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living with an increased ability to afford more travel and more time to
partake of it. What was once the Sunday afternoon drive in the park has
now become the weekend excursion to the mountain resort areas.
In order to even approximate what level of trip making is optional
or marginally necessary, it is necessary to superimpose one set of human
values upon another. The imposition of new values upon others will
always result in social costs to the individuals affected. The magnitude
of these costs are related to the severity of the constraints and the
individual's ability to adapt to the constraints. It is apparent,
therefore, that caution be exercised in carefully weighing the societal
costs associated with the gains to be derived and the degree of controls
needed to attain any desired level of VMT reduction.
A number of factors enter into any decision concerning whether or
not a trip should be undertaken. For example, a ghetto family without a
car will make fewer trips overall than an upper class family which has
three cars at its disposal. In this case, the differences in opportunity
will define the trip making characteristics and needs. Because of dif-
ferences in household characteristics and physical environments, elimi-
nating identical trips are perceived to have significantly different
impact depending on the groups experiencing the impact. Controls which
will result in trip reductions should not only consider trips intended
for basic functions as working and shopping, but also the human needs for
recreation and relaxation.
7.2.2.3 Impact on Accessibility
It can be said of the San Joaquin Valley that "to have a job, you
must have a car and to have a car, you must have a job." This relationship
of employment opportunities (especially for certain minorities) to trans-
portation has been alluded to previously. The transportation system con-
trol measures recommended in this study will have a definite impact on
accessibility and, consequently, they will result in social impacts.
In general, it is estimated that impacts from accessibility-restrictive
measures are minor and can be very positive. The intent is generally to
penalize private transportation while favoring public transit. In addition
to being conservation-oriented, such schemes tend to favor many of the
underprivileged population segments.
258
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7.2.2.4 Impact on Mode Choice Decisions
Numerous factors affect an individual's choice of travel mode. Those
relating to the individual include age, sex, and income. Equally
important are variables dealing with the individual's environmental
surroundingsland use patterns and transportation systems. Land use
patterns and trends in the San Joaquin Valley are such that choices of
modes other than the automobile are inherently discouraged.
Experience has shown that additional important factors in mode
choice decison-making are related to the transportation system and its
performance characteristics. Basically, the parameters which determine
mode choice are the time and money associated with the trip. Viewing
the trip in terms of time and money, making the trip requires a certain
economic cost. Obviously, the traveler will attempt to reduce the actual
and perceived costs.
Most of the controls being considered increase the cost of private
automobile travel and/or reduce the cost of public transportation. The
purpose, of course, is to induce higher percentages of people onto public
transit. While aiding those dependent on transit services, measures which
make it more expensive to drive tend to be regressive. As such, the
social impacts experienced will be more heavily felt by the poor.
It has been shown that time costs are frequently a more serious
penalty to the middle and high income groups. Consequently, measures
which result in time penalties, e.g., ramp metering, exclusive bus and
carpool lanes, are often more effective at inducing transit ridership
than monetary fees. From an equity standpoint, these controls are highly
desirable since the poor place less value on their time. As a result, one
would expect a more uniform mode shift by income groups from such controls.
The result of the recommended control measures on mode choice
decisions will generally favor more extensive public transit usage.
Socially, the impacts will initially be viewed as inconveniences and to a
limited extent, a loss of personal mobility. In the long run, as adjust-
ments are made to new life styles, these impacts will have been appreciably
diminished.
259
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7.2.2.5 Summary
The social impacts associated with implementing the recommended
transportation control measures will be significant. Many impacts
identified will be of a positive nature, e.g., improved mobility and
accessibility for deprived population groups, more efficient energy
utilization. Other impacts, however, are likely to have negative social
impacts, e.g., placing additional burdens or regressive measures on
smaller population segments.
Table 7-6 presents a summary of the overall social impacts likely to
occur as a function of the control measures. Estimates for the extent of
the overall impacts are intended to present a relative index and have to
be qualified by some rather simplifying assumptions. For example, it was
assumed that the young, old, poor and minorities owned old cars (if any),
drove primarily out of necessity, and placed little value on their time.
The "average" American, however, was viewed as relatively mobile, the
owner of at least one car, and someone who placed a high value on his time.
The impacts on mobility were considered to be those which impeded
when trips would be made and what types of trips would be made; these
effects were related directly to the urban driving patterns in the valley.
Accessibility impacts are those which restrict where one goes and the
ease with which the trips can be made.
Lastly, a summary of the impact on mode choice decisions is given.
This considered the relative effect a given measure would have on the
attractiveness of the predominant transportation modes, i.e., the private
auto and public transit.
260
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TABLE 7-6. SUMMARY OF SOCIAL IMPACTS
Control Measure
Phase I Measures (Recommended)
Gasoline Marketing
Evaporative Loss Control
Organic Surfacing Coating Substitution
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Degreaser Substitution
Burning Regulation
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Improvement of Public Transit
Increased Car Pooling
Parking Control
Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted)
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing
Impact on Socio-Economic Groups
Young/ Poor Minorities Average
Elderly Citizen
0
0
0
0
0
-
+
0
0
0
--
0
0
--
--
0
0
0
0
0
--
--
+
0
0
0
0 '
0
0
--
--
0
0
0
0
0
-
+
0
0
0
0
0
0
--
--
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
-
0
-
-
0
-
0
0
-
-
Impact
on
Mobi 1 i ty
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
+
-
-
0
-<
0
0
0
Impact
on
Accessibility
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
+
0
-
0
-
0
0
0
0
Impact on
Mode - Choice Decision
Private Public
Auto Transit
0
0
0
0
0
-
-
-
0
-
-
0
0
0
0
-"
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
f+
+
+
0
0
0
0
0
0
ro
LEGEND (RELATIVE IMPACTS)
++ Very Favorable
+ Favorable
0 Very Minor or None
Unfavorable
Very Unfavorable
-------
7.3 RESULTS OF ATTITUDE SURVEY
To measure local opinion on matters related to the motor vehicle,
alternate modes of travel, and air pollution, Urban Facts, a service of
Market Facts, Incorporated, an independent marketing research company,
conducted an attitudinal survey among individuals living in the cities
of Stockton, Fresno, and Bakersfield.
The objectives of this survey were to determine:
1. Respondents attitudes towards various auto emission
control strategies designed to --
a) Reduce auto air pollution
b) Reduce traffic congestion
2. Respondent attitudes towards various methods of
encouraging use of public transportation
The study was conducted using Consumer Mail Panels, Market Facts'
controlled mail panel facility. Questionnaires were sent to panel members
living in the metropolitan areas indicated, and panel members were
requested to fill out the questionnaires immediately and return them to
Market Facts as soon as possible. Certain questions required the panel
members (female household head) to obtain responses from other members
of the household. 175 questionnaires were received: 65 from Stockton,
66 from Fresno, and 44 from Bakersfield. The overall return rate was
approximately 70 percent.
The questionnaires were mailed on April 18, 1973 and returns were
cut-off on May 10, 1973. The major results from the survey are summarized
below. The actual response data for each area is contained in Appendix D.
7.3.1 Auto Air Pollution
1. About 80-90 percent of all respondents in all cities feel
auto air pollution is a serious or very serious nationwide
problem. This feeling is highest in Fresno (89%).
2. Respondents in all three cities feel that auto air pollution
is a more serious problem nationwide than it is locally.
262
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A law requiring auto emission control equipment of all pre-1975
cars is much more acceptable at a government subsidized cost
of $50 than a non-government subsidized cost of $125. Regard-
less of the cost, this law is viewed more favorably by respond-
ents in Fresno. A law requiring inspection of this equipment
is viewed more favorably by respondents in Fresno and
Bakersfield. Respondents in all cities would expect to pay at
least $7.00 for the inspection; the maximum expected cost is
$9.32.
In all cities the two most acceptable proposals (based on mean
ratings) for controlling auto air pollution are "prohibit
traffic/parking in central business districts" and "create car
pool/bus only lanes on major thorough fares." The two most un-
acceptable are $200 registration fee for each auto" and "have
tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares." Respondents were
also asked to indicate which proposals were most/least accept-
able. These data are consistent with the mean ratings except
that "gasoline rationing" replaced "have tolls on exit ramps"
as one of the two most unacceptable proposals.
The most acceptable proposal for combatting a possible gasoline
shortage is to limit purchases to 90% of current consumption.
Least acceptable are proposals to double the price of gasoline
and to impose an emission tax of $15 per thousand miles travelled.
Interest in car pools as a means of reducing auto air pollution
ranges from 40 to 50 percent of the respondents in Stockton and
Fresno. However, in Bakersfield, where the level of interest
is 31%, more respondents are already in a car pool or do not
travel to work by car. A majority of respondents in all cities
feel getting into a car pool would be difficult.
Rating of proposals for reducing traffic congestion varied by
the city. Those rated most effective included "improving timing
of traffic signals" and "prohibiting parking, loading, and
unloading on busy streets." Among those considered least
effective was "widening major streets at intersections."
263
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7.3.2 Transportation Usage
1. Public transportation usage is low in each city, ranging
between 10 and 30 trips per year.
2. Public transporation in these cities is used by women and
children out of necessity (no car available or no driver's
license). Men in the San Joaquin Valley said they use public
transportation because it is faster, more available, and more
comfortable.
3. -Reasons for auto usage are the same in all cities - faster,
more flexible, more available.
4. In general, the most effective proposals for encouraging usage
of public transportation facilities are: more frequent service,
faster travel, more conveniently located stops and stations,
and lower fares.
5. In all cities, there is a substantial reluctance (67% or higher)
to dispose of any car or cars even if public transportation
were improved.
264
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8.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
This section deals with the implementation of the control strategy
proposed in this report. Discussion is confined to two areas: the
procedure and time schedule for implementation of the strategy, and the
responsibilities of the government agencies which will be involved in the
implementation of the proposed strategy. These two areas of discussion
are located in subsections 8.1 and 8.2, respectively.
8.1 PROCEDURE AND TIME SCHEDULE
The proposed time schedule for implementation of the control strategy
is given in Table 8-1. The dates shown for promulgation of the plan are
those prescribed by Federal law. Legislative authority for the recommended
Phase I measures must be obtained by the end of 1973; gasoline rationing
legislation should be obtained by the end of 1975.
As the table indicates, all gasoline marketing facilities should be
controlled to the extent recommended in this study by mid-1975. That is,
existing facilities should be retrofit with appropriate control systems
by that date, and all new facilities built after that date should be
required to include control systems in their construction.
A development program for substitutes for organic surface coating
compounds is currently underway and should be continued indefinitely. The
use of less reactive substitutes should be expanded, beginning in 1974.
Carbon absorption systems effective to the degree recommended in this
study are.currently available and should be installed at all dry cleaning
establishments during 1974. Likewise, available substitutes for organic
degreasers should be implemented during 1974. Burning regulation, to some
degree, has already been instituted by the county APCD's. The additional
regulation recommended in this study should be in effect through 1980.
The three vehicle-oriented control measures are Mandatory Inspection/
Maintenance, Oxidizing Catalytic Converter, and Pre-1966 Retrofit Device.
The first part of the inspection/maintenance program, the idle test with
the 10% rejection rate, should be carried out during 1975 and 1976. This
265
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TABLE 8-1. PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIME SCHEDULE
Element
Promulgation of Control Strategy Plan
Proposed Control Strategy Plan
Public Hearings on Plan; Review and Evaluation of
Comments
i Promulgation of Final Control Strategy Plan
(15 August 1973)
Legislative Authority Required for Controls
California A'ir Resources Board
Obtain enabling legislation for Inspection of
maintenance
Obtain enabling legislation for additional
retrofit devices, e.g. catalytic converters
Obtain enabling legislation to ration gasoline
Phase I Measures (Recommended)
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls
t Establish necessary regulations
Initiate program of controlling losses from
gasoline marketing
All marketing facilities controlled
Organic Surface Coating Substitution
Development of alternatives (e.g. water-based
or high solid control formulation)
Expand use of less reactive substitutes
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Implement Carbon Absorption Systems
Degreaser Substitution
Implement substitution
1973
,
I
I
t
A
1974
t
A
A
^
.
\
1
k
In
T
1975
'
-^
T
-4
1976
t
^
1977
1978
1979
1980
ro
-------
TABLE 8-1. (Continued)
Eler.ent
Burning Regulation
Agricultural 4
Lumber J
Incineration A
Aircraft Emission Control
» Establish necessary regulations
* Modified Ground Operations Required
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Program Design
Program Preparation
Mandatory Idle Emission Insoection
t Mandatory Loaded Emission Inspection
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
t Installation Program
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Installation Program
Improvement of Public Transit
Expand Bus System
Increased Car Pooling
Public Information Program
Car Pool Coordination
Parking Control
* Limit Construction
Increased Long-Term Rates
1973
k
A-
1974
A
i
^
4
A
^
1
1975
L
^
k
i
-4
k
k
1976
t
I
.
I
1
|
1977
\
:
J
1978
197'j
!
1980
'
ro
cr»
-------
TABLE 8-1. (Continued)
ro
CO
Element
Phase II Measures (if denonstrably warranted)
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
VMT Reduction through Gasoline Rationing
1973
i
i
I
!
1974
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
1
1
i
1
i
i
1
1
1975
1
1
1976
^
.:
~
1977
^
^
r
i
I
1978
*"*'
;
1
1979
*-*
'
i
!
1980
1
!
1
'
1
i
i
-------
means that all light duty vehicles in each of the three counties should be
inspected (and 10% should be maintained) during the year 1975 and again
during 1976. In 1977 and every year thereafter, all light duty vehicles
should be inspected using a loaded test, and 50% of them should be
required to receive maintenance. The installation of the oxidizing
catalytic converter should take place between mid-1974 and mid-1975. The
pre-1966 retrofit device should be installed during 1974.
The three transportation system-oriented measures recommended for im-
plementation in San Joaquin, Fresno, and Kern counties are Improvement of
Public Transit, Increased Car Pooling, and Parking Control. The expansion
of the current bus systems in each urban area should begin in 1974 and
should continue through 1980. It is recommended that an aggressive public
information program be instituted in 1974 to encourage and advertise
increased use of car pooling. Car pooling should be coordinated among
employees at work centers in the urban centers in each of the three
counties beginning in mid-1974. Construction of parking facilities should
be limited as soon as possible, preferably by the end of 1973. Long-
term parking rates should be increased by the middle of 1974.
All Phase II measures should be implemented by 1977, if it is
demonstrated that they can be effective and that they are necessary. The
elimination of motorcycle use during smog season and gasoline rationing
involve relatively difficult institutional and administrative problems and
should be begun in 1976, so that these kinds of problems are obviated by
1977 for maximum effectiveness of the measures, in that year.
269
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8.2 AGENCY INVOLVEMENT
Table 8-2 gives the agency responsible for the implementation of
each of the control measures recommended in this study. The sections of
the California Health and Safety Code which provide the respective
agencies with the authority for implementation of the measures are listed
in the table also. It can be observed that the county APCD's have the
authority to implement all recommended stationary source controls. All
that remains in each case is for the Air Pollution Control Board of each
agency to pass or modify appropriate rules and regulations for use within
each of the counties.
Vehicle-oriented mobile source controls, on the other hand, require
new legislation, with the one exception being the pre-1966 retrofit device.
This device is already required in three air basins--the South Coast, San
Diego, and San Francisco. Authority has been given to all APCD's in the
state for implementation of this measure. Thus, each of the APCD's in the
San Joaquin Valley Air Basin needs to pass an appropriate rule requiring
these devices on light duty motor vehicles. Effective devices of this type
have, of course, been accredited by the CARB.
Authorizing legislation must be passed for the other two vehicle-
oriented measures. The CARB will be responsible for the mandatory
inspection/maintenance program, while, if the oxidizing catalytic converter
is required in only part of the APCD's of the state (as is likely), it will
be the responsibility of each APCD to implement necessary rules, and,
therefore, all APCD's must have the authority by state law to implement
the measure. Thus, two types of legislation must be passed for implementa-
tion of the catalytic converter measure: state legislative authority and
APCD rules, pending, of course, CARB accreditation of catalytic converter
devices.
Transportation system controls and improvements in Phase I do not
involve the requirement for major authorizing legislation. In each case,
it will require the appropriate division of the local city and county
governments to implement or modify regulations and to impose, where
necessary, procedural contraints and encouragements.
270
-------
TABLE 8-2
AGENCY RESPONSIBILITY FOR
CONTROL MEASURE IMPLEMENTATION
Measure
Phase I
Stationary Source Controls
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative
Loss Control
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Degreaser Substitution
Organic Surface Coating Control
Mobile Source Controls
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Transportation System Controls
and Improvements
Aircraft Controls
Phase II
Stationary Source Controls
Additional Organic Solvent Use
Controls
Mobile Source Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During
Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/
Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Gasoline Rationing
Evaporative Retrofit Device
Additional Retrofit Devices
Responsible
Agency
APCD
APCD
APCD
APCD
CARB
CARB/APCD
APCD
County/City
Government
FAA/EPA
APCD
CARB
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB/APCD
Authorizing
Legislation
(Sections of
California Health
and Safety Code)
24260, 24260.
24260, 24260.
24260, 24260.
24260, 24260.
TBL
TBL
24263.8
24260, 24260.
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
1
1
1
1
1
'
TBL: To be legislated
271
-------
Stationary source measures in Phase II, as in Phase I, require no
additional authorizing legislation. On the other hand, mobile source
controls in Phase II all must be legislated. All will likely be at least
the partial responsibility of the CARB, although like the catalytic
converter, it is likely that the legal requirement for the three retrofit
measures in Phase II will actually be the authority of each APCD and that
each APCD will have the responsibility, after accreditation of hardware by
the CARB, to implement the measures in its jurisdictional area. It is
assumed for the present that gasoline rationing will be within the
authority of the CARB, although the actual legal requirements of this
controversial measure are vague.
272
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9.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION
The relative significance of obstacles to implementation of the
proposed control strategy has been estimated using the following defini-
tions of obstacle categories:
Technical obstacles - obstacles involving the design of
hardware, details of administrative procedure, or speci-
fication of standards or acceptance limits necessary for
implementing recommended control measures.
Political obstacles - obstacles involving the feasibility
of productive interaction among appropriate leaders, ad-
ministrators, legislators, and special interest groups for
the purpose of instituting recommended control measures.
Institutional obstacles - obstacles involving the opposi-
tion of institutions required by the plan with those
already in existence, and necessary adjustment thereof.
Legal obstacles - obstacles involving writing and passing
laws, rules, and regulations required for instituting and
administering control measures.
Socio-economic obstacles-- obstacles involving the impact
of control measures on the public, commerce, and industry.
9.1 PHASE I MEASURES
9.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures
1. Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control - This control should
meet only minor legislative and socio-economic obstacles. Necessary laws
and regulations are easily specified since there is a large backlog of
feasibility studies and investigations involving this measure, and since
several APCD's in the state have already instituted requirements for a
similar measure and can serve as a model. There should be very little
socio-economic impact due to this measure. The cost of changes in gaso-
line refining and marketing will indeed be passed on to the consumer, but
the actual cost increase per gallon should be small. Public convenience
should barely be affected at all; consequently, minimal public reaction
is expected in these areas. Moderate technical obstacles will appear in
the forms of hardware development and design for evaporative control
systems at filling stations, on tank trucks, at refineries, and at bulk
terminals. These technical obstacles will fall generally within the realm
273
-------
of the oil companies in California, since it will be their responsibility
to select technical means for meeting recommended standards for gasoline
evaporative control. It is expected that their reaction to the proposal
for the evaporative emission control measure will present a moderate
political obstacle to implementation.
2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - This measure should encounter
no political or institutional obstacles, but will encounter minor techni-
cal obstacles, in that such substitutes as water-based coatings, high
solids content coatings, and powdered coatings are currently under
development and require lengthy testing before promising formulas can be
used commercially. A minor legal obstacle is anticipated in writing rules
which require the recommended degrees of control by 1975 and 1977. Small
changes in the price of the product may create minor socio-economic
obstacles.
3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - The principle of carbon absorption has
been proven as an effective means of controlling evaporative losses of
solvents from dry cleaning, and the required hardware is available. Thus,
no technical obstacles are anticipated. The local APCD's have the author-
ity to implement such controls, and no institutional obstacles are
expected. The only legal obstacle to overcome is the appropriate local
rulemaking, and it is at most minor. No political or socio-economic
obstacles are expected.
4. Degreaser Substitution - Acceptable non-reactive substitutes for
current degreaser solvents exist and should encounter no major obstacles
to implementation by 1975. Rulemaking presents at most a minor legal
obstacle.
5. Burning Regulations - Burning restrictions have already been
instituted to some degree, and it is anticipated that more extensive
regulation will not meet significant obstacles.
9.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures
6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - Part I - Idle test, 10 percent
rejection rate. Part I of this measure is technically simple, and
requires little more developmental or design effort than has already gone
into the random state lane inspection already in existence in California.
274
-------
No institutional obstacles are anticipated, since the Department of Motor
Vehicles can include inspection/maintenance certification as part of
vehicle registration requirements, much as it does with retrofit devices.
Furthermore, this measure may encounter no significant legal or political
obstacles, since a bill requiring inspection and maintenance in the South
Coast Air Basin (Assembly Bill 380 -- see Appendix E ), currently in
committee, will probably pass both houses and be signed by the Governor.
Legislation, however, remains a potential obstacle, since four similar
bills in 1972 and 1973 have not passed the legislature and the administra-
tion. Socio-economic obstacles will be almost insignificant.
Part II - Loaded test, 50 percent rejection rate. Obstacles for Part
II of this measure will be similar in nature to those expected for Part I,
but of larger magnitude. This testing method is more involved and time-
consuming than the method in Part I and will require more effort directed
toward technical development, design, instrument assembly, and shelter
construction. Legal obstacles will consequently be significant, and
socio-economic obstacles will probably be greater because of the higher
cost and greater inconvenience for the vehicle owner.
7. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - There are major technical obstacles
involving the implementation of this type of retrofit measure by 1975.
These obstacles derive from several technical weaknesses in current
catalytic converter designs; for example,
1) temperature and air-fuel ratio effects on catalyst operation
2) catalyst deterioration effect on reactivity of hydrocarbon
emissions
3) susceptibility of the catalyst, container, and components to
damage, contamination, and attrition of the heavy metals
Further development, testing, and design are required for implementation
on the recommended dates.
The converters will be relatively easy to install, but they must be
replaced every 25,000 miles and low-lead or unleaded fuel must be used.
Furthermore, the converter is costly as compared to other retrofit devices.
As a result, major socio-economic, political, and legal obstacles are
anticipated for this measure.
275
-------
8. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - Since exhaust control devices incorpora-
ting vacuum spark advance disconnect are already required for these model
years in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins, it is
not expected that this measure will encounter any significant obstacles
to implementation. A rule must be written and passed by the appropriate
Air Pollution Control Board in each county, but this will be, at most,
a minor legal obstacle. VSAD is neither costly or complicated, but it is
effective and should meet a minimum of social and political opposition.
9. Mass Transit - Mass transit improvements should meet no institution-
al or legal obstacles, but there will be significant technical, political
and socio-economic difficulties to be overcome. Technical obstacles will
involve the system design and fare structure of the improvements, and
potential political opposition will emanate from those factions who do
not favor funding for this form of transportation. Socio-economic
obstacles will result from the actual design of the system, and the
funding mechanism for its institution.
9.2 PHASE II MEASURES
9.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures
10. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Any additional controls on
organic solvent use, such as strengthening Rule 66, will encounter major
technical and political obstacles, and at least minor institutional, legal,
and socio-economic obstacles.
9.2.2 Mobile Source Control Measures
11. Elimination of Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - This measure will
encounter few, if any, technical obstacles, but political and legal
obstacles will be quite significant, considering the popularity of
motorcyles in California (especially during the summer) and the poten-
tially significant political strength of motorcycle manufactureres and
enthusiasts. Socio-economic obstacles will be at least minor, because
of the recreational and personal values of motorcycle riding, and en-
forcement problems will provide at least minor institutional problems.
276
-------
12. Inspection/Maintenance for HDV - Inspection/maintenance procedures
for heavy duty vehicles have been developed and tested in only a few
areas of the country (New York State, for example); the potential exists
for major technical obstacles to implementation in California. Minor
political, institutional, legal, and socio-economic obstacles are also
expected.
13. Retrofit Devices for HDV - Obstacles to implementation of a retrofit
program for heavy duty vehicles are expected to be very similar to those
described for inspection/maintenance.
14. Gasoline Rationing - A large scale VMT reduction through gasoline
rationing will be extremely difficult to implement. Since nearly every-
one will be affected, opposition can be expected on all fronts. Due to
the severity of the measure, the political, institutional, and socio-
economic obstacles will be so great that they are likely to force a
revaluation of the overall program objectives, and contraints.
15. Evaporative Retrofit Device - Major technical, political, legal,
and socio-economic obstacles are anticipated for implementation of and
evaporative retrofit program. Although devices for pre-1970 vehicles have
not yet been developed, it is expected that they will be costly compared
to the value of the vehicle and that installation will not be simple.
16. Additional Retrofit Measures - It is expected that additional retro-
fit measures beyond those specifically recommended in this study will
encounter major technical, political, institutional, legal, and socio-
economic obstacles during implementation. Most of these additional
devices are not cost-effective for application in this air basin and will
meet significant opposition.
277
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REFERENCES
1. California Air Resources Board, "California Air Quality Data," for
December 1969 through September 1972, Vol. II, No. 1, through Vol. IV,
No. 3, Sacramento, California.
2. Environmental Protection Agency, "California State Implementation
Plan," 1971.
3. Technical Advisory Committee for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin
Coordinating Council, "San Joaquin Valley Air Basin Implementation
for Air Pollution Control," adopted November 3, 1971.
4. Polk, R. L., and Co., "Passenger Cars Registration Counts by Make
and Year of Model," Compiled from Official State Records, July 1,
1972.
5. Kircher, D. S., and Armstrong, D. P., "An Interim Report on Motor
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9. Federal Aviation Administration, Department of Transportation,
"Military Air Traffic Activity Report," Calendar Year 1970.
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May 1973.
11. Personal communication with U. S. Navy Representatives, Los Angeles,
California, May 1973.
12. Personal communication with U. S. Air Force Representative, Los
Angeles, Californa, May 1973.
13. Environmental Protection Agency, Aircraft Emission Estimation,
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14. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Water Programs,
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278
-------
REFERENCES (Continued)
16. Interim Policy Plan: Environmental Resources Management Element,
City of Fresno, (No Author).
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of Fresno, (No Author).
18. Fresno Community Council, Transportation Committee, "A Committee
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19. Fresno County and City Chamber of Commerce, "Facts and Figures,"
1971.
20. Kern County Council of Governments, "Areawide Development Guide,"
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21. Kern County Council of Governments, "Unified Work Program for
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22. Kern County Planning Commission, "1972 Annual Population and Housing
Report," Bakersfield, 1972.
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The Kern County General Plan," Bakersfield, 1973.
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Carolina, 27711.
279
-------
REFERENCES (Continued)
30. Trijonis, J. C., "An Economic Air Pollution Control Model Application:
Photochemical Smog in Los Angeles County in 1975," Appendix A, Ph.D.
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31. Eschenroeder, A. Q., Martinez, J. R., and Nordsieck, R. A., "Evaluation
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32. Reynolds, S. D., Liu, M. K., and Roth, P. M., "Evaluation of a
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35. Environmental Protection Agency, "Ground Operations of Aircraft to
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39. Environmental Protection Agency, "Requirements for Preparation, Adoption,
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40. California Air Resources Board, "State of California Implementation Plan
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41. Personal communication with California Air Resources Board personnel.
42. Environmental Protection Agency, AP-42.
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44. California Air Resources Board, "Proposed Revision to Part X, State
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280
-------
REFERENCES (Continued)
45. Kircher, David, and Armstrong, Donald, "An Interim Report on Motor
Vehicle Emission Estimation," Environmental Protection Agency,
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46. Traffic Count Data from California Division of Highways.
47. California Highway Patrol, "California Traffic Accident
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48. State of California, Division of Highways, "SATS Base Year Report,"
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49. Personal Communication with San Joaquin County Council of
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50. 'iraffic Engineer, City of Stockton, "Parking Facilities Inventory,"
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51. Nelson, E. E. "Hydrocarbon Control for Los Angeles by Reducing
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53. Western Oil and Gas Association, "Statement of Cost on Changing Fuel
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58. Personal communication with J. E. Presten, Marketing Operations of
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59. California Air Resources Board, "Proposed Revision to Part IX of the
State of California Implementation Plan for Achieving and Maintaining
The National Ambient Air Quality Standards, San Joaquin Valley Air
Basin," April 25, 1973.
281
-------
REFERENCES (Continued)
60. State of California, Division of Highways, District 6, "FCATS Base
Year Report, Tables of Origin and Destination," Summary Report to
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61. State of California, Division of Highways, District 6, "National
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62. DeLeuw, Cather and Company, "Public Transportation for the Fresno
Metropolitan Area," December 1964.
63. DeLeuw, Cather and Company, "Fresno Central Area Traffic and Parking
Study," June 1970.
t
64. Pratsch, L. W., "Carpool and Buspool Matching Guide, U. S. Department
of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, February 1973.
65. Environmental Protection Agency and U. S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, "Population and Economic Activity in the United
States and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas," July 1972.
66. Personal communications with refinery representatives and Los Angeles
County APCD officials.
67. TRW Regression Model. California Emission Inventory 1970, California
Air Resources Board, July 1972.
68. Population Research Unit, Department of Finance, "Provisional Pro->
jections of California Counties to 2000," September 15, 1971.
69. State of California, Division of Highways, District 6, 1970,
"BMATS Base Year Report," Vol. I, Origin and Destination Survey, 1965.
70. State of California, Division of Highways, District 6, 1968
"BMATS Base Year Report," Vol. II, Origin and Destination Survey, 1965.
71. State of California, Division of Highways, District 6, 1970
"National Highway Functional Classification Study."
72. Personal communications with Greater Bakersfield Transit District staff
personnel, April 1973.
73. Personal communications with City of Bakersfield, Department of
Public Works, staff personnel, April 1973.
74. Los Angeles County APCD, APCD Digest. Vol. Ill, No. 5, May 1973,
Page 3.
75. Northrop Corp. in Association with Olson Laboratories, Inc.,
"Mandatory Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance," Part B -
Final Report, Vol. V, Part I, Summary, December 1971.
76. Personal communication with William H. Ellis, Special Products Research
Chemist, Chevron Research Company, El Segundo, California.
282
-------
REFERENCES (Continued)
77. deNevers, Noel, "Rollback Modeling, Basic and Modified," Draft Document,
Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, N.C. (August 1972).
78. "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors," Revised -
February 1972.
79. California Air Resources Board, "Motor Vehicle Emissions
Inventory 1970-1980," Preliminary Report, February 16, 1973.
80. Wachs, M., "The Feasibility of Fare-Free Transit for Los Angeles,"
Preliminary Draft, University of California, Los Anaeles, 1973.
81. Automobile Manufacturer's Association, Inc., Economic Research and
Statistics Department, "1971 Automobile Facts and Figures," 1972.
283
-------
APPENDIX A
MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light
duty vehicles, heavy duty gasoline powered vehicles, heavy duty diesel
vehicles, and motorcycles. Base year emissions from these vehicle
types were estimated by determining the annual mileage by model distribution
of the region's vehicle population, the overall mileage traveled by
vehicles in the region, and then applying appropriate emission factors
which are attributable to the various vehicle age classifications.
Consider, for example, a region in which it is known that eight percent
of all light-duty vehicle travel is performed by cars of age three years,
that the total vehicle miles traveled in the region is five million miles
per year, and that the representative hydrocarbon exhaust emission factor for
three-year old cars in the region is 4.4 gm/mi . The hydrocarbon exhaust emis-
sion contribution by the three-year old light duty vehicle group is
(5,000,000) 4.4 (.08) x - J = 4822 total gm hydrocarbon
365 . per day.
Subsequently, the total light duty emissions for the region may be
determined by performing the summation:
h+1
(VMT)n V^ e.n m.n = total exhaust emissions
ip in
i=(n-12)
where VMT
VMT = total vehicle miles traveled in region for given
vehicle type (light duty, heavy duty, etc.). This
is determined from transportation study data.
e. = emission factor for ith_ model year for pollutant p
" during calendar year n in a given region.
m. = weighted annual travel of the itih_ model year vehicle
during calendar year n. (The determination of this
variable involves the use of the vehicle model year
distribution.)
The factor
e. is determined according to the relationship
ipn
A-l
-------
eipn = cip dipn sp ^A"^
where
c. = the 1975 Federal test procedure emission rate for
P pollutant p (grams/mile) for the ith_ model year, at
low mileage. These values are available from Reference A-l
d. = the controlled vehicle pollutant p emission deterioration
'ipn
factor for the ith model year at calendar year n. These
figures are available from Reference A-l.
s = the speed adjustment factor for exhaust emission for
p pollutant p. This value is available from Reference A-l.
when the average speed of vehicular travel is known.
The calculation of hydrocarbon emissions also involves evaporative
and crankcase hydrocarbon emission rates. These emissions are determined
in the same manner as exhaust emissions by using:
n+1
i=(n-12)
(VMT)n 2. hi "in
where,
h. = the combined evaporative and crankcase emission rate
for the ith model year,
m. = the weighted annual travel of the ith_ model year during
calendar year n.
The numerical calculations required for estimation of total base year
emissions are carried out with the use of a computer program. Values for
hi' cio and diDn are taken from Reference A-l, and s , VMT, and m. are
determined from vehicle data for the region of interest.
A-2
-------
Projected vehicle emissions for the future years 1975, 1977, and
1980 are computed in the same manner as the base year emissions, utilizing
anticipated vehicle (VMT) growth rates and expected emission reduction rates
as determined from regional data and as provided by Reference A-1 .
The vehicle emissions which are anticipated in future years, based
on current scheduled emission control programs, forms the vehicle
"baseline emission" profile. The "baseline emissions" may be viewed,
therefore, as the nominal emissions which are projected to occur from the
base year (the former year in which the maximum ambient pollution peak
was observed to occur) to the years 1975, 1977, and 1980. Baseline
emissions are calculated in terms of total hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide,
and nitrogen oxides. The calculation results for the various types of
vehicles are presented in Sections 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2 of the report.
Implementation of additional controls to reduce vehicle emissions.
below the nominal baseline emission profile are investigated by adjusting
the appropriate mathematical functions which reflect the type of proposed
control. For example, the effect of retrofit of catalytic converters on
used light duty model vehicles is determined by adjusting the emission
and deterioration factors for those models proposed for control, and by
carrying out the series of summations in the computer model. If, as
another example, a program is implemented to bring about a reduction in
total VMT, total emissions, in this case, would be easily determined
applying a proportionate decrease in the baseline emissions.
The following sections describe the requirements for manipulation
of regional data preparatory to input to the computer model. Emissions
are calculated separately for light duty vehicles, heavy duty gasoline
powered vehicles, heavy duty diesel vehicles, and motorcycles.
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
Emissions from light duty vehicles were computed according to the
methodology discussed above. This necessitated the determination of
1) weighted annual travel by model, 2) average vehicle speed in the region,
3) emission factors by model, 4) deterioration rates for emission factors
by model, and 5) total VMT.
A-3
-------
Weighted Annual Travel
To determine the weighted annual travel of various model year vehicles
in the San Joaquin Valley area, the following vehicle distributions were
utilized:
1) Passenger car model distribution
2) Annual mileage distribution by model.
The passenger car model distribution was obtained from data supplied by
R. L. Polk and Company (A-2). This data lists registered passenger models
by county as of July 1, 1972. The model year data does not include all
light duty vehicles (pickups and light trucks are omitted), but its dis-
tribution by model year was presumed closely representative of the actual
light duty distribution. The passenger car distribution for the base year
of 1970 (Fresno) and 1971 (Kern and San Joaquin) were calculated from the
1972 Polk registration data, truncated at the base year. Table A-l dis-
plays the Polk passenger car registration data and the corresponding cal-
culated normalized distribution which was taken as the light duty vehicle
model distribution. It is assumed that this distribution reflects the
true distribution of model passenger cars actually traveling in the area,
although it is recognized that through-trips by cars registered outside
the county may influence the true distribution. This effect, although
not expected to be substantial, could be discernable in the regions under
study, since through trips represent a significant fraction of the total
vehicle mileage. Due to the absence of data describing the transient
vehicle population, no adjustments were made.
The annual mileage of the various model vehicles is determined from
data compiled from the California Air Resources Board from results of
tests by the California Highway Patrol (A-3). The tests were conducted
between March 15 and May 30 of 1972 at numerous locations in the state.
Odometer readings were recorded for each of the model years. An average
age was calculated for each of the model years at the time of the test
(for example, the average age of 1972 model cars at the mid-time of the
test period was .28 years, the average age of 1971 models was 1.06, of
1970 models 2.06, etc.) and plotted as a function of the average odometer
reading. The plot is then used to tabulate odometer readings for the
A-4
-------
Projected vehicle emissions for the future years 1975, 1977, and
1980 are computed in the same manner as the base year emissions, utilizing
anticipated vehicle (VMT) growth rates and expected emission reduction rates
as determined from regional data and as provided by Reference A-l.
The vehicle emissions which are anticipated in future years, based
on current scheduled emission control programs, forms the vehicle
"baseline emission" profile. The "baseline emissions" may be viewed,
therefore, as the nominal emissions which are projected to occur from the
base year (the former year in which the maximum ambient pollution peak
was observed to occur) to the years 1975, 1977, and 1980. Baseline
emissions are calculated in terms of total hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide,
and nitrogen oxides. The calculation results for the various types of
vehicles are presented in Sections 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2 of the report.
Implementation of additional controls to reduce vehicle emissions.
below the nominal baseline emission profile are investigated by adjusting
the appropriate mathematical functions which reflect the type of proposed
control. For example, the effect of retrofit of catalytic converters on
used light duty model vehicles is determined by adjusting the emission
and deterioration factors for those models proposed for control, and by
carrying out the series of summations in the computer model. If, as
another example, a program is implemented to bring about a reduction in
total VMT, total emissions, in this case, would be easily determined
applying a proportionate decrease in the baseline emissions.
The following sections describe the requirements for manipulation
of regional data preparatory to input to the computer model. Emissions
are calculated separately for light duty vehicles, heavy duty gasoline
powered vehicles, heavy duty diesel vehicles, and motorcycles.
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
Emissions from light duty vehicles were computed according to the
methodology discussed above. This necessitated the determination of
1) weighted annual travel by model, 2) average vehicle speed in the region,
3) emission factors by model, 4) deterioration rates for emission factors
by model, and 5) total VMT.
A-3
-------
Weighted Annual Travel
To determine the weighted annual travel of various model year vehicles
in the San Joaquin Valley area, the following vehicle distributions were
utilized:
1) Passenger car model distribution
2) Annual mileage distribution by model.
The passenger car model distribution was obtained from data supplied by
R. L. Polk and Company (A-2). This data lists registered passenger models
by county as of July 1, 1972. The model year data does not include all
light duty vehicles (pickups and light trucks are omitted), but its dis-
tribution by model year was presumed closely representative of the actual
light duty distribution. The passenger car distribution for the base year
of 1970 (Fresno) and 1971 (Kern and San Joaquin) were calculated from the
1972 Polk registration data, truncated at the base year. Table A-l dis-
plays the Polk passenger car registration data and the corresponding cal-
culated normalized distribution which was taken as the light duty vehicle
model distribution. It is assumed that this distribution reflects the
true distribution of model passenger cars actually traveling in the area,
although it is recognized that through-trips by cars registered outside
the county may influence the true distribution. This effect, although
not expected to be substantial, could be discernable in the regions under
study, since through trips represent a significant fraction of the total
vehicle mileage. Due to the absence of data describing the transient
vehicle population, no adjustments were made.
The annual mileage of the various model vehicles is determined from
data compiled from the California Air Resources Board from results of
tests by the California Highway Patrol (A-3). The tests were conducted
between March 15 and May 30 of 1972 at numerous locations in the state.
Odometer readings were recorded for each of the model years. An average
age was calculated for each of the model years at the time of the test
(for example, the average age of 1972 model cars at the midrtime of the
test period was .28 years, the average age of 1971 models was 1.06, of
1970 models 2.06, etc.) and plotted as a function of the average odometer
reading. The plot is then used to tabulate odometer readings for the
A-4
-------
TABLE A-1
PASSENGER CAR MODEL DISTRIBUTION FOR KERN, FRESNO, AND SAN JOAQUIN COUNTIES
MODEL YEAR
County
Kern
(145678)
% of Total
Cars
San
Joaquin
(129698)
% of Total
Cars
Fresno
(156059)
% of Total
Cars
71
11700
8.0
11200
8.6
70
11813
8.1
10212
7.9
14683
9.4
69
12188
8.4
10276
7.9
17430
11.2
68 67 66 65 64
13738 12773 10813 11286 12525
9.4 8.8 7.4 7.7 8.6
11714 10612 9540 10684 11268
9.0 8.2 7.4 8.2 8.7
15511 12978 14609 15760 13761
9.9 8.3 9.4 10.1 8.8
63
10440
7.2
9760
7.5
11361
7.3
62
8878
6.1
8009
6.2
9792
6.3
61
7307
5.0
6321
4.9
5936
3.8
60
4541
3.1
4271
3.3
5463
3.5
59
4224
2.9
3632
2.8
4183
2.7
58
13548
,
r
9.3
1^^^
12192
^^^^^^^
9.4
2341
1.5
57
^
»
I
^
^
12173
7.8
en
SOURCE: R. L. Polk & Company, Compiled from Official State Records
-------
end of the year average ages of vehicles (i.e., 1972 models have an average
age of .75 years at the close of 72, 1971 models are 1.75 years old, etc.)
Table A-2 shows a tabulation of odometer readings versus average vehicle
age.. The difference in the odometer readings between successive model
years is equivalent to the miles driven by each of the models in the past
year (Table A-2). The mileage driven in the past calendar year versus the
actual vehicle age is plotted in Figure A-l. Since the Highway Patrol
Tests entailed only models of year 1966 and newer, the mileage driven in
the past year by older cars was assumed to be the same as that given for
the statewide average annual mileage previously compiled by the State
Air Resource Board in Reference A-4. The overall model mileage dis-
tribution was presumed to approximate driving patterns in the base years
of the study, consequently the data was adjusted by offsetting according-
ly. Tests made by the California Highway Patrol did not include regional
data in the study areas, consequently overall statewide summary informa-
tion was used to compile the mileage distribution.
TABLE A-2. DISTRIBUTION OF AVERAGE ANNUAL MILEAGE AND
CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE DATA
Vehicle Age
.75
1.75
2.75
3.75
4.75
5.75
6.75
7.75
8.75
9.75
10.75
11.75
12.75
Odometer
12000
27000
39400
50200
59500
66000
70200
73800
77400
81000
84600
88100
91600
Miles in
Preceeding Year
12000
15000
.12400
10800
9300
6500
4200
3600
3600
3600
3600
3500
3500
Source: Memorandum to G. C. Hass, Chief of Vehicle Emission
Control Program, from Ray Ingels, Air Resources Board
regarding the Revision and Extension of Report, "Vehicle
Miles Driven per Year by Age of Vehicle," October 16, 1972.
Note: Data for vehicle age 6.75 and older were compiled using
information from Reference A-4.
A-6
-------
FIGURE A-l. VEHICLE MILES DRIVEN PER YEAR
vs.
AGE OF VEHICLE
STATEWIDE DISTRIBUTION
5.
fQ
0)
-a
OJ
0)
en
c
s_
Q
O)
Z3
a
u
a>
16
14
12
10
6 8
Actual Vehicle Age
12
3) Revision and extension of Report "Vehicle Miles Driven per year by
Age of Vehicle," October 16, 1972. Memorandum to G. C. Hass, Chief
of Vehicle Emission Control Program, from Ray Ingels, Air Resource
Board.
4) "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory 1970-1980." Preliminary Report,
California Air Resources Board, February 16, 1973.
A-7
-------
The weighted annual travel of the different model year light duty
vehicles was calculated by multiplying the vehicle model year distribution
by the model year annual vehicle mileage. These values are tabulated for
Fresno, Kern, and San Joaquin counties in Tables A-3, A-4, and A-5.
Average Vehicle Speed in Region
The speed adjustment factor, used in the emission calculation, is de-
termined by the pollutant type and the average vehicle travel speed in the
region. The value is given by Figures 1, 2 and 3 of Reference A-l.
Emission and Deterioration Factors
The light duty vehicle emission rates must reflect the special case
in California where earlier and stricter emission standards have been im-
plemented. The essential elements of the California control program in-
clude the following:
o Crankcase emission control on all new gasoline-powered
vehicles.
o Exhaust emission standards on all new vehicles, both diesel
and gasoline-powered. These controls will be increasingly
stringent through the 1975 model year. After 1975, all
light duty vehicles must meet strict Federal standards.
o Fuel evaporative emissions standards on 1970 and later model
gasoline-powered light duty vehicles, and 1973 and later
heavy duty vehicles.
o Assembly-line testing of all light duty vehicle to be sold
in California after January 31, 1973.
o Crankcase emission control devices required on 1955-63 model
cars upon transfer of ownership in 13 of the state's more
populous counties.
o Exhaust control devices required on 1955-65 model year
light-duty vehicles upon transfer of ownership in the South
Coast, San Diego and San Francisco Air Basins (the latter
Basin after March 1, 1973). These devices reduce emissions
of hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen.
o Exhaust control devices for oxides of nitrogen will be re-
quired on 1966-70 vehicles on an installation schedule
starting February 1, 1973.
A-8
-------
Table A-3- WEIGHTED ANNUAL TRAVEL BY MODEL AND TOTAL ANNUAL TRAVEL FOR
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN FRESNO COUNTY FOR BASE YEAR 1970
todel Year
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57 & Prior
TOTAL
Vehicle
Age
Dist.
%
9.41
11.17
9.94
8.32
9.36
10.10
8.82
7.28
6.27
3.8
3.5
2.68
1.51
7.84
(a)
Total Light
Duty Vehicles
21174
25137
22366
18721
21060
22725
19846
16380
14108
8550
7875
6030
3398
17641
225011
(b)
Annual
VMT in
Preceding
Year
12000
15000
12400
10800
9300
6500
4200
3600
3600
3600
3600
3500
3500
3500
Weighted
Miles Driven
In Preceding
Year
713
823
775
844
741
574
623
606
578
472
367
278
309
2056
9759
Fraction Of
Total of All
Vehicle
Mileage
.0731
.0843
.0794
.0865
.0759
.0588
.0638
.0621
.0592
.0484
.0376
.0285
.0317
.2107
Total VMT
In Preceding
Year
2.541xlQ8
3.771xl08
2.773xl08
2.022xl08
1.959xl08
1.477xl08
8.335xl07
5.897xl07
5.079xl07
3.078xl07
2.835xl07
2.111xl07
1.189xl07
6.174xl07
1.8013xl09
(a) SOURCE:
(b) SOURCE:
State Motor Vehicles Department registration data for automobiles. The data was adjusted to
include light-duty commercial vehicles not included in the "automobile" registrations.
References A-3 and A-4.
-------
Table A-4 WEIGHTED ANNUAL TRAVEL BY MODEL AND TOTAL ANNUAL TRAVEL FOR
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES KERN COUNTY FOR BASE YEAR 1971
Model Year
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58 & Prior
TOTAL
Vehicle
Age
Dist.
%
8.0
8.1
8.4
9.4
8.8
7.4
7.7
8.6
7.2
6.1
5.0
3.1
2,9
9.3
1.000
(a)
Total Light
Duty Vehicles
5651
4920
4610
5020
4408
3414
3706
3604
3438
2808
2183
1654
1838
12230
59484
(b)
Annual
VMT in
Preceding
Year
12000
15000
12400
10800
9300
6500
4200
3600
3600
3600
3600
3500
3500
3500
Weighted
Miles Driven
In Preceding
Year
960
1215
1042
1015
818
481
323
310
259
220
180
109
102
326
7356
Fraction Of
Total Of All
Vehicle
Mileage
.131
.165
.142
.138
.111
.065
.044
.042
.035
.030
.024
.015
.014
.044
1 .000
Total VMT
In Preceding
Year
6.78xl07
7.43xl07
5.72xl07
5.42xl07
4.10xl07
2.22xl07
1.56xl07
1.30xlQ7
1 .24xl07
l.OlxlO7
7.86xl06
5.79xl06
6.43xl06
4.28xl07
4. 307x1 O8
I
o
(a) SOURCE: State Motor Vehicles Department registration data for automobiles. The data was adjusted to
include light-duty commercial vehicles not included in the "automobile" registrations.
(b) SOURCE: References A-3 and A-4.
-------
Table A-5 WEIGHTED ANNUAL TRAVEL BY MODEL AND TOTAL ANNUAL TRAVEL FOR
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES SAN JOAQUIN FOR BASE YEAR 1971
Model Year
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58 & Prior
TOTAL
Vehicle
Age
Dist.
%
8.6
7.9
7.9
9.0
8.2
7.4
8.2
8.7
7.5
6.2
4.9
3.3
2.8
9.4
100.0
(a)
Total Light
Duty Vehicles
14413
13240
13240
15084
13743
12402
13743
14581
12570
10391
8212
5531
4693
15753
167596
(b)
Annual
VMT in
Preceding
Year
12000
15000
12400
10800
9300
6500
4200
3600
3600
3600
3600
3500
3500
3500
Weighted
Miles Driven
In Preceding
Year
1032
1185
980
972
763
481
344
313
270
223
176
116
98
329
7282
Fraction Of
Total of All
Vehicle
Mileage
.142
.163
.135
.133
.105
.066
.047
.043
.037
.031
.024
.016
.013
.045
Total VMT
In Preceding ?
Year
1. 7296x1 08
1.986xl08
1.642xl08
1.629xl08
1.278xl08
8.061xl07
5.772xl07
5. 249x1 O7
4.525xl07
3.741xl07
2.956xl07
1 .936xl07
1.643xl07
5.514xl07
1.2204xl09
(a) SOURCE: State Motor Vehicle Department registration data for automobiles. The data was adjusted to
include light-duty commercial vehicles not included in the "automobile" registrations.
(b) SOURCE: References A-3 and A-4.
-------
Exhaust emission factors for the light duty vehicle population in
future years or the base year is dependent on the degree to which scheduled
emission control programs will have been implemented in the year being
considered.
Base year emission factors, by model and pollutant, were determined
from results of vehicle emission tests performed according to the 1972
Federal Certification Test Procedure. The exhaust emission factors are
shown in Table A-6 for the base year. Table A-7 is a tabulation of exhaust
factors effective after July 1974, when used light-duty vehicles of the
model years 1966-1970 will have been equipped on schedule with.exhaust
control devices for oxides of nitrogen (exhaust gas recirculation).
These factors are used for calculation of projected baseline emissions.
TABLE A-6. CARBON MONOXIDE, HYDROCARBON, AND NITROGEN
OXIDES LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE EXHAUST EMISSION FACTORS FOR THE STATE OF
CALIFORNIA,BASE YEAR 1971
£xhaust Emission Factors at Low Mileage (Grams/Mi)
Model Year CO Total Hydrocarbons'
pre 1966 87 8.8 3.6
1966 51 6.0 3.4
1967 50 4.6 3.4
1968 46 4.5 4.3
1969 39 4.4 5.5
1970 36 3.6 5.1
1971 34 2.9 3.5
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency, October, 1972.
A-12
-------
Deterioration factors expressing the rate of increase of the light-
duty vehicle emissions with model age, are available from Reference A-l.
These factors are taken to be constant for the base year as well as the
projected years (the operation of the VSAD add-on does not exhibit a
deteriorating characteristic).
TABLE A-7. CARBON MONOXIDE, HYDROCARBON, AND NITROGEN OXIDES
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE EXHAUST EMISSION FACTORS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
EFFECTIVE AFTER JULY, 1974
Exhaust Emission Factors at Low Mileage (Grams/Mi)
Model Year
pre 1966
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 and later
CO
87
35.2
34.5
31.7
26.9
24.8
34
19
19
19
4.8
1.8
Total Hydrocarbons
8.8
5.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
.5
.23
NO*
3.6
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.9
2.7
3.5
3.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
.31
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency, October, 1972.
The values above are adjusted to reflect the VSAD device
scheduled for installation on model 1966-1970 light-duty
vehicles by July 1974. It also reflects a recent revision
in standards requirements for CO and total hydrocarbons
for 1975 model vehicles.
Reduction of emissions attributed to the VSAD installation
were determined from direct communication with the EPA
District 9 Office, as were the revised emission standards
for 1975 model vehicles.
A-13
-------
Crankcase and evaporative emission factors are given in Table A-8
and apply for both the base year and projected years. These values
reflect the California standards for evaporative emissions and crankcase
emission control.
The emission values are given for low mileage non-deteriorated
vehicle operation. Deterioration factors by model year and pollutant
are used to account for the aging or deterioration of exhaust emission
control devices. The deterioration factors also reflect the special
case in California where earlier promulgation of emission standards
occurred.
TABLE A-8. LIGHT DUTY CRANKCASE AND EVAPORATIVE HYDROCARBON
EMISSIONS BY MODEL YEAR IN CALIFORNIA,
BASE YEAR AND PROJECTED YEARS
Model Year
pre 1960
1961-1963
1964-1967
1968-1969
1970-1971
1972
1973 on
LDV Hydrocarbons
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
.5
.2
.2
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency. October, 1972.
The values extracted from this document were adjusted to
reflect the installation of PCV crankcase devices on pre-
1963 vehicles. The emission factor of 3.0 was obtained
by communication with the EPA Region 9 Office. .
Note: The factors above reflect the California standards for
fuel evaporative emissions on 1970 and later light-duty
vehicles. They also reflect crankcase emission control on
all vehicles.
Total VMT
Total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the region is determined either
from: 1) calculation of.the product of total registered vehicles by model
year and VMT per year by model, or 2) transportation studies performed in
the area. The calculation of VMT from model year and VMT distribution
A-14
-------
is shown in Tables A-3, A-4, and A-5. VMT estimates based on studies per-
formed by the Division of Highways were considered to be the most valid
input for VMT (A-8). These figures were available from regional transpor-
tation studies consisting of traffic counts performed in each of the study
areas. The VMT values were used in calculation of total emission from
light-duty vehicles in the Kern, Fresno, and San Joaquin counties.
Computer Calculation of Emissions
The parameters of the foregoing discussion are determined in the
context of a specified pollutant, emission type (exhaust, evaporative,
or crankcase), and year n, and inserted in the relation
n+1
S (VMT)n ci din min or (VMT) h m
P ip ipn in n ,
Hn-12)
to compute total emissions. Emissions are calculated for
n = base year, 1975, 1977, and 1980.
p = total hydrocarbons, reactive hydrocarbons (see Section
for discussion for hydrocarbon reactivity), carbon
monoxide, and nitrogen oxides.
Computer printout sheets for hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and
oxides of nitrogen emissions for 1972 are shown in Figures A-2, A-3, and
A-4, respectively. These case examples give the exhaust and crankcase/
evaporative emissions in the base year for each of the three major
pollutants generated by light-duty vehicles for the San Joaquin Basin
study areas. The input data for each model year vehicle is shown in
table form for each case. The values for average speed and daily
vehicle miles traveled are shown along with the output data display at
the bottom of the sheet. The emission rate, expressed in grams per
mile, is an average rate for all light-duty vehicle model years. The
total emission for each case is shown in tons per year and tons per
days.
A-15
-------
FIGURE A-2. KERN COUNTY - ESTIMATED HYDROCARBON
BASELINE FROM LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN 1971
y i. v UI\L T
cr>
YLAis
i 3 7 I
1 :* 1 0
1369
1 ':, 6 b
1967
1966
1065
L'Jt'-i
is 63
1962
1961
1-760
1459
Lf)3ti
CiP
j : )
C * > vJ
3.50
-'» . 4 0
4 . 5 U
4 . 6 J
6 . J l)
J.^J
; i . 3 0
d . 6 0
« . 3 J
3 . 3 0
6 . 3 0
d. du
.-'5 . d J
ipn
1 .'JO
1.05
1. 16
1.21
1. 14
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.00
i.OO
1.00
1.00
1.00
1. 00
min
. 130
. lt>5
. 1^2
. 136
. ill
.Cst>
. -J ^M
. GH?
.C3b
. G 3(J
.O^^t
.015
.014
.O't4
hi
. 50
.50
3 . GO
3. 00
3 . u J
3 . 00
3.CC
3 . CO
3. CO
3 . GJ
3.00
3 . CG
j » Uu
3. CO
SP
.60
.60
.60
.60
.60
.60
.60
.t-0
.60
.60
.60
.60
. 60
.60
t.P ANKC ASF AT-jC rV
TuFAL - 5.71 G/M
DAILY VcHlCLt: .V I L. L S T^AVLLLLC =
FLiTAL YKAhLY r-YHKL C4A .<
LCSStS = 2.2 6 v./M
.-.00 TH'.JUbAKO f'lLES
1.5^7 1.32 TPNS
3 6 . 3 h T C. K S
-------
FIGURE A-3. KERN COUNTY - ESTIMATED CARBON MONOXIDE
BASELINE EMISSIONS FROM LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN 1971
YE
19
19
19
19
IV
AR "IP
7
1
70
6
c
19 f-
19
19
19
19
19
19
i.
6
fc
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
62
c
fc
5
195
1
G
S"
8
3
3
3
4
5
5
3
d
d
a
8
a
s
a
4.
6.
9.
/.
c.
1.
7.
7.
7.
7.
7.
7,
7.
7.
00
00
UO
00
0 C
00
JO
J w
00
00
oc
00
OG
00
d "1.
ipn in
1
i
1
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
.00
. 18
.53
.41
.29
.28
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
. 00
. 130
. 165
. 142
. 138
. Ill
.Co 5
.044
.042
.035
. C 3 0
.024
.015
.014
.044
SP
%
*
5
G
.j
5
3
3
3
.53
*
*
,
m
*
»
c
c
b
^
t:
q
-*
t
t
c
c;
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
AVENGE SPEED = 42.00
MiJKuXICF F v- 1 SS ILM S = 32.^0 G/M
VLHICLt tflLFS TRAVfcl.LbD = 577o.OO
DAILY
TUTAL
THTAL
YhARLY CARDLK 'lUN^X 1 .')F FMISSIUNS =
LiAILY CARBON v'U\fjX I Cr K.«1SSIUNS =
ThOUSAM)
2 Oh
' I L C b
TUNS
TONS
-------
FIGURE A-4. KERN COUNTY - ESTIMATED NITROGEN OXIDES
BASELINE EMISSIONS FROM LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN 1971
3=»
00
c d.
YtAR ^ip ipn
1971
1970
196S
19 6 b
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
iy 62
1961
i960
1959
19 5 S
j
i-
5
4
3
3
2
}
3
3
3
3
3
3
.50
.10
.50
.30
.40
.40
.bO
.60
. to
.60
.60
. uO
.60
. uO
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
I
1
1
. 00
. 00
.00
.00
.00
.00
. 00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
min
. 130
. ID 5
. 142
. 138
. Ill
.065
. 044
. 042
. 035
.030
.024
.C15
.014
.044
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
S
«
*
.
*
P
2
2
2
2
2
2
^
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
AVEKAGE SPfrCD = 42.00
^lTI
-------
Projected Emissions in Future Years
The calculation of emissions for future years involves a projection
of deterioration factors, emission factors, and weighted annual vehicle
travel for future model vehicles, and VMT and average traffic speed in
the future years of interest. The deterioration and emission factors in
future years are estimated by considering vehicle controls which are
scheduled for future implementation, and adjusting the factors
accordingly. Since regional projections of vehicle model year
distribution and annual mileage by model are not available, the weighted
annual vehicle travel distribution for future years was assumed to remain
unchanged from that presently used. It is noted that rather constant
historical patterns in motor vehicle sales justify this assumption as a
feasible estimate. Projected VMT and average traffic speeds are available
from transportation studies conducted by the State Division of Highways.
This information has been tabulated and is shown in Table A-9.
Baseline emission calculation results are presented in Section 4.1.2,
5.1.2, and 6.1.2 of this report.
Control Measures
Three vehicle emission control measures, were investigated for their
impact on total light-duty vehicle emissions. These were 1) a retrofit
(by 1975) of 20 percent of 1966-1970 model light-duty vehicles, and 75 percent
of 1971-1974 model light-duty vehicles, with an oxidizing catalytic
converter, 2) a retrofit (by 1975) of all 1955-1965 light-duty vehicles
with a spark advance disconnect (VSAD), and 3) an inspection and main-
tenance idle test program for all light-duty vehicles. The anticipated
emission reductions expected for those vehicle targeted for catalytic
converter installations is 50 percent for total hydrocarbons and CO,
and zero percent for nitrogen oxides (A-15). The VSAD retrofit is expected
to provide a 12 percent reduction in hydrocarbons, 31 percent in CO,
and 48 percent in NO . The inspection/maintenance idle test program
A
is expected to provide a six percent reduction in total hydrocarbons
and a three percent reduction in carbon monoxide (A-15). These reductions
are based on an expected ten percent initial failure rate occurring
during the idle test inspection. The subsequent mandatory maintenance
'A-19
-------
ro
o
TABLE A-9
SUMMARY OF VEHICULAR TRAVEL
FRESNO, KERN, AND SAN JOAQUIN COUNTIES
County
Fresno
Kern
San
Joaquin
Vehicle Type
Light duty vehicles
Heavy duty vehicles
Total , LDV and HDV
Average speed, MPH
Light duty vehicles
Heavy duty vehicles
Total , LDV and HDV
Average speed, MPH
Light duty vehicles
Heavy duty vehicles
Total , LDV and HDV
Average speed, MPH
Vehicle Miles
Baseyear
5543
361
5904
36
5778
713
6491
42
4712
511
5223
41
of Travel
1975
6614
519
7133
36
6736
866
7602
42
5890
673
6563
41
(in thousands of
1977
7043
571
7614
36
7215
942
8157
42
6473
756
7229
41
miles)
1980
7688
676
8364
36
7934
1056
8990
42
7350
880
8230
41
SOURCE: Traffic count data, obtained from State Division of Highways.
-------
of the vehicles found to be in violation would result in the stated emission
reductions.
The overall impact of these three control measures on the baseline
emission values are computed by applying the reduction factors to the
appropriate model year emission factors. The results are summarized in
Section 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2.
HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE POWERED VEHICLE EMISSIONS
Heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicle emissions are calculated using
the same procedure as that for light-duty vehicle emissions.
Emission and Deterioration Factors
The heavy-duty vehicle emission rates reflect the special case in
California where earlier and stricter standards have been implemented.
Exhaust emission factors are given in Table A-10.
TABLE A-10 HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLE EXHAUST EMISSION
FACTORS, CALIFORNIA ONLY
Model Year
pre 1970
1970-1971
1972
1973-1974
1975
Carbon Monoxide
Gms/Mi
140
130
130
130
81
Exhaust Hydrocarbons
Gms/Mi
17
16
13
- 13
4.1
Nitrogen Oxides
Gms/Mi
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.2
2.8
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency, October, 1972.
A-21
-------
Crankcase and evaporative emission rates are shown in Table A-ll.
TABLE A-ll..HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLE CRANKCASE AND
EVAPORATIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS BY MODEL YEAR FOR CALIFORNIA
Model Year
pre 1960
1961-1963
1964-1967
1968-1969
1970-1971
1972
1973 on
Hydrocarbons,
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
.8
(Gms/Mi)
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency, October, 1972.
The values extracted from this document were adjusted to
reflect the installation of PCV crankcase devices on pre-
1963 vehicles. The emission factor 3.0 was obtained by
communication with the EPA Region 9 Office.
Due to a lack of actual heavy-duty deterioration information, light-
duty deterioration values are used for controlled heavy-duty vehicles, with
control by model year offsets. (1968 light-duty figures are used for 1973
and later controlled heavy-duty vehicles). The deterioration factors are
tabulated from the light-duty deterioration tables of Reference A-l.
Heavy Duty Vehicle Speed and VMT
Average speed and heavy-duty vehicle VMT data are available from
transportation studies conducted by the State Division of Highways (A-8).
Table A-6 of the preceeding section gives the breakdown of heavy-duty VMT.
and speed for the base year and projected years in the three San Joaquin
Basin study areas. The speed emission adjustment factor is determined
using the same technique as for light duty vehicles.
Model Year Distribution
The heavy-duty vehicle model year distribution was determined from
published vehicle registration data from the Department of Motor Vehicles (A-13).
This vehicle data is segregated in terms of automobiles and commercial
vehicles. While the commercial vehicle tabulation was known to include a
A-22
-------
large number of light-duty vehicles, such as pickups and vans (and also
includes diesel-powered trucks), its model year distribution was
considered to be representative for all heavy-duty vehicle distribution.
Table A-12 contains the commercial vehicle model distribution for the year
1972., The distribution is calculated for statewide values since a
distribution is not available for the particular region under consideration.
The annual mileage distribution of heavy-duty gasoline powered
vehicles is shown in Table A-12. The distribution is obtained from the
publication "1971 Motor Truck Facts" (A-12). Weighted annual travel by
model is determined as indicated in Table A-12, also.
Heavy duty vehicle mileage data must be manipulated to segregate
diesel from gasoline powered motive types (diesel-powered trucks average
greater annual mileage and emit at different rates than gasoline-powered
trucks). Based on the Motor Vehicle Department Gross Report (A-6), it is
determined that 225,653 vehicles were registered as vehicles rated over
6,000 pounds (or "heavy-duty") at the end of 1972. Of these vehicles,
66,970 are diesel-powered. Additional information from Motor Vehicle
/ V
Statements of transactions (A-16) shows another 14,000 diesel vehicles were
exempt from state registration (state, county, or government-operated
vehicles). It was therefore estimated that a proportionate number
225,653 = 47,172) (A-12)
of unregistered heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicles fell within this
category.
Those vehicles which come from out-of-state, yet perform their
travel within California boundaries, account for 28,000 more commercial
vehicles, of which 50 percent are assumed to be diesels. Consequently,
total heavy-duty diesel vehicles in California (end of 1972) total
94,800, and all heavy-duty vehicles (gasoline and diesel) total 300,825.
Hence 68.5 percent of all heavy-duty vehicles are gasoline-powered.
The foregoing relationships were used to adjust the State Motor
Vehicle registration data to determine the gasoline-powered heavy-duty
vehicle population model distribution. Total regional VMT for Fresno
was then calculated as shown "in Table A-13.
A-23
-------
TABLE A-12. COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MODEL YEAR DISTRIBUTION
California, 1972
Model Year
72
71
' 70
69
63
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59 & Prior
TOTAL
Total
Registered
Co!!jiicrcial
Vehicle (a)
j
182609
159155
149022
162294
142569
110410
119853
116632
111162
90743
70534
53385
59446
395488
1923302
Fraction
of
Total
Vehicles
.0950
.0827
.0775
. 0344
.0741
.0574
.0623
.0606
.0578
.0472
.0367
.0278
.0309
.2056
1.00
Miles(b)
Driven
in
Proceeding
Year
7500
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
1 0000
10000
1 0000
Weighted
Miles
Driven in
Proceeding
Year
713
827
775
844
741
574
623
606
578
472
367
278
309
2056
9763
Fraction of
Total of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.073
.0847
.0794
.0864
.0758
.0587
.0638
.062
.0592
.0483
.0375
.0284
.0316
.2105
I
ro
-pa
(a) Department of Motor Vehicles, California. Registrations for commercial vehicles as of
January 10, 1973.
(b) "1971 Motor Truck Facts" , Automobile Manufacturer's Association
-------
TABLE A-13.
VMT FOR HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE POWERED VEHICLES FOR
FRESNO COUNTY (BASE YEAR 1970)
ro
01
Model Year
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57 & Prior
TOTAL
Vehicle Model
Distribution
.095
.0823
.0775
.0844
.0741
.0574
.0623
.0606
.0578
.0472
.0367
.0278
.0309
.2056
B
Total
Vehicles
548
475
447
487
428
331
360
350
334
273
212
161
178
1187
5771 (a)
C
VMT Per
Vehicle In
Proceeding Year (b)
7500
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
BxC
Total VMT
In P recced ing
Year
4.11xlo6
4.75xl06
4.47xl06
4. 87x1 O6
4. 28x1 O6
3.31xl06
3.60xlQ6
3.50xl06
3. 34x1 O6
2.73xl06
2.12xl06
1.61xl06
1.78xl06
1.187xl07
5.63xl07
(a) SOURCE: State Motor Vehicles Department registrations data for commerical
vehicles, and gross report. The commerical vehicle total for
this region was adjusted to reflect only heavy duty vehicles
which are gasoline powered.
(b) SOURCE: "1971 Motor Truck Facts", Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.
-------
This value of VMT was then related to that calculated for diesel
powered heavy-duty vehicles (see following section) to establish the
portion of all heavy-duty VMT (as given by transportation studies in
the region) which is diesel or gasoline powered. Using this approach,
it was determined that gasoline powered heavy-duty vehicles account for
39.3 percent of all heavy-duty travel miles, this percentage (assumed
to be the same in future years) was then applied to VMT estimates for
the area, given only in terms of either light or heavy-duty mileage,
to establish the miles driven by the gasoline heavy-duty vehicles.
Subsequently, this value was incorporated with other pertinent vehicle
data (discussed earlier in this section) to calculate baseline emissions.
The results of these computations are presented in Section 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2.
Heavy-Duty Diesel Powered Vehicles
Emissions resulting from operation of heavy-duty diesel powered
vehicles are calculated in a similar manner as gasoline powered heavy-
duty vehicles.
Emission factors for uncontrolled diesel powered heavy-duty
vehicles are available from Table 3-2 of EPA Document AP-42 (A-7). These
factors apply to vehicles prior to 1975 models. In 1975 and thereafter,
new standards apply. The new standards will .limit diesel exhaust emission
to 1.05 gm total hydrocarbons per mile, and 2.270 gm CO per mile.
Evaporative and crankcase emissions for diesels are considered negligible
in the totals.
The effect of deterioration on exhaust emissions from diesel vehicles
is considered negligible.
Total VMT for Fresno County is calculated as shown in Table A-14. The
value is related to that calculated for heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicle
VMT in order to determine the portion of total heavy-duty VMT each vehicle
motive-type accounts for. This'ratio is computed because VMT data (to
be used in emission calculations) is expressed as overall mileage by al1
heavy-duty VMT which is generated by diesel type vehicles. The result
is that 60.7 percent of all heavy-duty travel is performed by diesels.
This value is assumed to remain constant in future years.
A-26
-------
TABLE A-14. VMT FOR HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL POWERED VEHICLES (Calculated)
FRESNO COUNTY
Model Model / x
Year Distribut/3'
Base Year
1970 1971 & 1970 .105
1969 & prior .895
TOTAL
B
Total
Vehicles
279
2,377
W
C
VMT per
Vehicle in / \
Preceding Year^ '
14,000
35,000
B X C
Total VMT in
Preceding Year
3.906 X 106
83.195 X 106
87.101 X 106
I
ro
'
'
Vehicle model distribution assumed same as for heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicles.
Source: State Motor Vehicle Department registrations data for numerical vehicles, and Gross Report.
This vehicle data for Sacramento region was adjusted to reflect only heavy-duty vehicles
which are diesdel -powered.
Source: Reference A-4.
-------
Tables A-15, A-16, and A-17 demonstrate the organization of pertinent
data and calculations required to obtain the baseline hydrocarbon emissions.
Projected emissions are calculated based on VMT predictions for heavy-
duty VMT provided by Highway Transportation Studies (A-8). Computations
of baseline CO and NOX emissions were carried out in the same fashion
and are given in Sections 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2.
Motorcycle Emissions
Baseline motorcycle emissions, for reactive hydrocarbons, are
computed as illustrated in Tables A-18 through A-23. The motorcycle
population is segregated into two classifications: two-stroke
motorcycles, and four-stroke motorcycles. Two-stroke motorcycles
constitute 38 percent of the statewide population of licensed motorcycles (A-£)
The overall motorcycle population for a given region is determined from
Motor Vehicle Department registration data (A-14). Projected, cycle popu-
lation in future years is .determined by a mathematical correlation of
cycles with projected personal income in the region (see Appendix F)..
Neither the projected nor the present population figures reflect the
unlicensed off-road motorcycles, which number approximately one-third of
the registered motorcycle population (A-17). Off-road motorcycles were
eliminated from the emission analysis, however, as it was felt that their
remote operation in rural areas plays a negligible role in the total air
pollution problem.
Emission factors for two-stroke and four-stroke motorcycles were
derived from the seven-mode test procedure of California, and are given
in Reference A-4. Exhaust, crankcase, and evaporative emission factors
were combined together since it was known that the rigor of maintaining
separate computations for the emission category would have a minor
effect on the outcome of reactive hydrocarbon emissions, and have no
effect on CO or NO (crankcase and evaporative losses represent
^
hydrocarbon emissions only). This is true for the case of reactive
hydrocarbons because: 1) The crankcase and evaporative emissions are
relatively small in comparison to exhaust emissions, and 2) the
reactive factors for crankcase, evaporative, and exhaust hydrocarbons
are not substantially different (A-10).
A-28
-------
TABLE A-15 HEAVY DUTY DIESEL VEHICLE REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
FRESNO COUNTY
Year Model
Considered Year
1970 71 & 70
69 &
prior
1975 76 & 75
75 &
Prior
1977 78 & 77
76 & 75
75 &
prior
1980 81 & 80
79 -75
74 &
prior
(A)
% of
(B)
Annual
VMT
Total , x per , ,
Models^3' Vehicle13'
.105
.895
.105
.895
.105
.168
.727
.105
.380
.515
14
35
14
35
14
35
35
14
35
35
,000
,000
<
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
A x B
Weighting
Factor for
VMT per Year
1,470
31,325
32,795
1,470
31,325
1,470
5,880
25,445
32,795
1,470
13,300
18,025
% of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.044
.955
.044
.955
.044
.179
.775
.044
.405
.549
(D)
Hydrocarbon
(C) Emission, ^
VMT
per Day
9,807
212,869
222,900(b)
14,115
306,364
320,800(b)
15,540
63,222
273,730
353,200(b)
18,392
169,290
229,482
418,000(b)
Factor ^'
gm/mi
3.36
3.36
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36.
1.05
1.05
3.36
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(C)
Conversion
Factor x
Reactivity
Factor
.10xl66x
.10xl66x
.10xl65x
.10xl06x
.10xl06x
.10xl06x
.10xl06x
.10xl66x
.10x106x
.10xl66x
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
(CxDxC)
Emissions
tons/day
.035
.780
.815
.016
1.029
1.045
.017
.070
.975
1.062
.020
.188
.818
1.026
(a)
(b)
Calculated in Table A-l.
Total VMT based on transportation studies by
vehicles and must be adjusted (60.7% diesel)
C'EPA preliminary issue of emission factors to
(d)
.99 = reactivity factor obtained from verbal
Division of Highways (A-8). These
to reflect only diesel population.
be incorporated in revision of EPA
communication with EPA (A-10).
values are in terms of all heavy duty
document AP-42 (A-7).
-------
TABLE A-16. HEAVY DUTY DIESEL VEHICLE REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
Year Model
Considered Year
1971 72 & 71
70 &
prior
1975 76 & 75
75 &
prior
1977 78 & 77
76 & 75
75 &
prior
1980 81 & 80
79 75
74 &
prior
(A)
% of
Total ( .
Models^3'
.105
.895
.105
.895
.105
.168
.727
.105
.380
.515
(B)
Annual
VMT
per (a)
Vehicleva;
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
A x B
Weighting
Factor for
VMT per Year
1
31
32
1
31
1
5
25
32
1
13
18
,470
,325
,795
,470
,325
,470
,880
,445
,795
,470
,300
,025
% of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.044
.955
.044
.955
.044
.179
.775
.044
.405
.549
(D)
Hydrocarbon
(C) Emission,,,
VMT
per Day
13,860
300,880
315,000(b)
18,326
397,757
416,500(b)
20,592
83,772
362,700
468,000(b)
23,936
220,320
298,656
544,000(b)
Factor vv-
gm/mi
3.36
3.36
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
\
i
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
(C)
Conversion
Factor x
Reactivity
Factor
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl66x.
.10xl06x.
.10xlO°x.
.10xl66x.
.10xl65x.
.lOxlO^x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
(CxDxC)
Emissions
tons/day
.050
1.102
1.152
.020
1.392
.023
.095
1.329
1.447
.026
.252
1.094
1.372
GO
CD
(a!
(b)
(c)
(d)
Calculated in Table A-l.
Total VMT based on transportation studies by
vehicles and must be adjusted (60.7% diesel)
EPA preliminary issue of emission factors to
.99 = reactivity factor obtained from verbal
Division of Highways (A-8). These values are in terms of all heavy duty
to reflect only diesel population.
be incorporated in revision of EPA document AP-42 (A-7).
communication with EPA (A-10).
-------
TABLE A-17. HEAVY DUTY DIESEL VEHICLE REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
KERN COUNTY
Year
Considered
1970
1975
1977
1980
Model
Year
72 & 71
70 &
prior
76 & 75
75 &
prior
78 & 77
76 & 75
75 &
prior
81 & 80
79 75
75 &
prior
(A)
% of
Total , x
Model s(a>
.105
.895
.105
.895
.105
.168
.727
.105
.380
.515
(B)
Annual
VMT
Per , x
Vehicle13'
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
A x B
Weighting
Factor for
VMT per Year
1,470
31,325
32,795
1,470
31,325
1,370
5,880
25,445
32,795
1,470
13,300
18,025
(D)
Hydrocarbon
% of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.044
.955
.044
.955
.044
.179
.775
.044
.405
.549
(C)
VMT
per day
19,386
420,773
440,600(b)
23,593
512,071
536,200
25,600
104,392
451 ,980
583,200
28,727
264,424
358,442
562,900
Emission/ ,
Factor * '
gm/mi
3.36
3.36
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
(C)
Conversion
Factor
x
Reactivity
Factor
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
.10xl06x.
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
(CxDxC)
Emissions
tons/day
.071
1.555
1.626
.027
1.892
1.919
.029
.120
1.670
1.819
.033
.305
1.324
1.662
CO
(^Calculated in Table A-l.
(b)
(c)
(d)
Total VMT based on transportation studies by
vehicles and must be adjusted (60.7% diesel)
EPA preliminary issue of emission factors to
.99 = reactivity factor obtained from verbal
Division of Highways (A-8). These values are in terms of all heavy duty
to reflect only diesel population.
be incorporated in revision of EPA document AP-42 (A-7).
communication with EPA (A-10).
-------
TABLE A-18.
MOTORCYCLE (4 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON
BASELINE EMISSIONS
KERN COUNTY
Year
1971
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ \
Population^ '
8,821
14,709
16,438
18,620
(B)
Miles /.*
per Year1 '
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor- %
gm/mi ^ '
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x. 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x. 10"9
3.02 x. 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor I <"
.86
.86
.86
.86
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
35.3 x 106
58.8 x 106
65.7 x 106
74.4 x 106
Emissions
ton/day
.40
.66
.74
.84
I
oo
(a) Based on MVD data (A-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972.
Southwest Research Institute (A-ll).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (A-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NO
iTE: 4 stroke motorcycles constitute 62% of cycle population (A-9).
-------
TABLE A-17. HEAVY DUTY DIESEL VEHICLE REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
KERN COUNTY
Year Model
Considered Year
1970 72 & 71
70 &
prior
1.975 76 & 75
75 &
prior
1977 78 & 77
76 & 75
75 &
prior
1980 81 & 80
79 75
75 &
prior
(A)
% of
Total /
Model su
.105
.895
.105
.895
.105
.168
.727
.105
.380
.515
(B)
Annual
VMT
per , }
Vehicle19'
14
35
14
35
14
35
35
14
35
35
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
A x B
Weighting
Factor for
VMT per Year
1
31
32
1
31
1
5
25
32
1
13
18
,470
,325
,795
,470
,325
,370
,880
,445
,795
,470
,300
,025
% of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.044
.955
.044
.955
.044
.179
.775
.044
.405
.549
(D)
Hydrocarbon
(C) Emission/
VMT Factor v
per day
19,386
- 420,773
440,600(b)
23,593
512,071
536,200
25,600
104,392
451 ,980
583,200
28,727
264,424
358,442
562,900
gm/mi
3.36
3.36
1.05
3.36
1,05
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
(C)
Conversion
^ Factor x
Reactivity
Factor
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
1.10xl06x
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
.99(d)
(CxDxC)
Emissions
tons/day
.071
1.555
1.626
.027
1.892
1.919
.029
.120
1.670
1.819
.033
.305
1.324
1.662
3=»
I
CO
(^Calculated in Table A-l.
(b)
(c)
(d)
Total VMT based on transportation studies by
vehicles and must be adjusted (60.7% diesel)
EPA preliminary issue of emission factors to
.99 = reactivity factor obtained from verbal
Division of Highways (A-8). These values are in terms of all heavy duty
to reflect only diesel population.
be incorporated in revision of EPA document AP-42 (A-7).
communication with EPA (A-10).
-------
TABLE A-18.
MOTORCYCLE (4 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON
BASELINE EMISSIONS
KERN COUNTY
Year
1971
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle, v
Population1 ;
8,821
14,709
16,438
18,620
(B)
Miles ,, v
per Year^D;
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor, »
gm/mi
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor^'
.86
.86
.86
.86
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
35.3 x 106
58.8 x 106
65.7 x 106
74.4 x 106
Emissions
ton/day
.40
.66
.74
.84
co
r>o
(a) Based on MVD data (A-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972.
Southwest Research Institute (A-ll).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (A-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 4 stroke motorcycles constitute 62% of cycle population (A-9).
-------
TABLE A-19.
MOTORCYCLE (4 STROKES) REACTIVE HYDROCRABON
BASELINE EMISSIONS
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
Year
1971
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle, ,
Population^ '
4,892
5,875
6,754
7,964
(B)
Miles ,.,
per Year^ '
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor/ >
gm/mi ( '
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor^")
.86
.86
.86
.86
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
11.3 x 10~9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
19.6 x 106
23.5 x 106
27 x 106
31.8 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
.22
.27
.31
.36
3>
OJ
CO
(a) Based on MVD data (A-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972.
Southwest Research Institute (A-ll).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (A-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
MOTE: 4 stroke motorcycles constitute 62% of cycle population (A-9).
-------
-TABLE A-20.
MOTORCYCLE (4 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON
BASELINE EMISSIONS
FRESNO COUNTY
Year
1970
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ ^
Population^
6,509
- 9,815
10,696
1 1 , 589
(B)
Miles /.x
per Year^ '
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor/ %
gm/mi ^c;
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x. 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor(d)
.86
.86
.86
.86
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
26 x 106
39 x 106
42.8 x 106
46.4 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
.3
.4
.5
.5
I
co
(a) Based on MVD data (A-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972.
Southwest Research Institute (A-ll).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (A-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 4 stroke motorcycles constitute 62% of cycle population (A-9).
-------
TABLE A-21.
MOTORCYCLE (2 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON
BASELINE EMISSIONS
KERN COUNTY
Year
1971
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ \
Population^ '
5,407
9,016
10,074
11,412
(B)
Miles /.x
per Yeaia°'
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor />
gm/mi ^c'
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10~9
3.02 x 10~9
(E)
Reactivity
FactorW
.96
.96
.96
.96
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
21.6 x 106
36.1 x 106
40.3 x 106
45.6 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
.96
1.6
1.8
2.0
co
en
(a) Based on MVD data (A-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972 (A-ll).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (A-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 2 stroke motorcycle constitutes 38% of total cycle population. "Automotive Engr" Small Engine Emissions
and their Impact; Apr 1972. Based on 7 mode cycle, ARE "Motor Veh Emissions".
-------
TABLE A-22.
MOTORCYCLE (2 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON
BASELINE EMISSIONS
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
Year
1971
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ ^
Population13'
2,999
3,600
4,139
4,880
(B)
Miles /.v
per Year(b)
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor/ »
gm/mi {C>
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x. 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
FactorvdJ
.96
.96
.96
.96
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10~9
44.5 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
12.0 x 106
14.4 x 106
16.6 x 106
19.5 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
.53
.64
.73
.87
oo
(a) Based on MVD data (A-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972 (A-ll).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (A-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 2 stroke motorcycles constitute 38% of cycle population (A-9).
-------
TABLE A-23.
MOTORCYCLE (2 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON
BASELINE EMISSIONS
FRESNO COUNTY
Year
1970
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ \
Population^3'
3,988
6,016
6,555
7,102
(B)
Miles (b)
per yearv '
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor/ ^
gm/tni vc;
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/ day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor(dJ
.96
.96
.96
.96
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
16.0 x 106
24.0 x 106
26.2 x 106
28.4 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
.7
1.1
1.2
1.3
a>
00
(a) Based on MVD data (A-14), and projections based on TRW regression- correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972 (A-11).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (A-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 2 stroke motorcycles constitute 38% of cycle population (A-9).
-------
Since exhaust emissions from motorcycles are uncontrolled, and no
controls are scheduled, the effect of deterioration on exhaust emissions
was considered negligible.
The miles driven per year was estimated to be the same for all models
at 4,000 (A-ll), and was assumed to remain unchanged in future years.
Based on the information above, two-stroke and four-stroke motorcycle
emissions were computed for the case of hydrocarbon, CO, and NO pollutants
/\
The overall results are tabulated in Section 4.1.2, 5.1.2, and 6.1.2.
A-38
-------
REFERENCES
A-l. From "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation,"
prepared by David S. Kircher and Donald P. Armstrong. Environmental
Protection Agency, October 1972.
A-2. National Vehicle Registration Service. Passenger Cars in Operation
as of July 1, 1972. R. L. Polk & Co., Compilation from Official
State Records.
A-3. Revision and Extension of Report "Vehicle Miles Driven per Year by
Age of Vehicle," October 16, 1972. Memorandum to G. C. Mass, Chief
of Vehicle Emission Control Program, from Ray Ingels, Air Resources Board.
A-4. "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory 1970-1980." Preliminary Report,
California Air Resources Board, February 16, 1973.
A-5. National Academy of Sciences," Semiannual Report by the Committee
on Motor Vehicle Emissions of the National Academy of Sciences to
the Environmental Protection Agency," January 1, 1972.
A-6. State of California Department of Motor Vehicles Statistical Record
on Motive Power Body Type and Weight Divisions for Automobiles,
Motorcycles, Commercial Trucks and Trailers. January 1 to December
31, 1972, Gross Report.
A-7. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency, February 1972.
A-8. Traffic count data sheets from California Division of Highways.
A-9. Automotive Engineering, "Small Engine Emissions and Their Impact,"
April 1972.
A-10. Private communication with EPA. Preliminary reactivity factors for
motorcycle and diesel hydrocarbon emissions.
A-ll. Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled
Engines and Motorcycles, January 15, 1972 - Southwest Research
Institute.
A-12. 1971 Motor Truck Facts, Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.
A-13. California Department of Motor Vehicles, AMIS Status as of
January 10, 1973. 1972 Registrations.
A-14. State of California Department of Motor Vehicles, Robert Cozens,
Director. Number of Vehicles Registered 1 January through
31 December 1972.
A-39
-------
References: (Continued)
A-15. "Title 40 - Protection of Environment," Chapter 1, "Requirements
for Preparation, Adoption, and Submittal of Implementation Plans."
Environmental Protection Agency, April 17, 1973.
A-16. "Statement of Transactions and Total Fees Collected," State Motor
Vehicle Department, January 1973.
A-17. "Uncontrolled Vehicle Emission Study for the California Air
Resources Board," Interim Report. Automotive Environmental
Systems, Inc.
A-40
-------
APPENDIX B
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM DATA
i
This appendix presents, in raw form, the data describing the current
and projected transportation systems in San Joaquin, Fresno, and Kern
counties. Each county is dealt with separately in Sections B.I, B.2, and
B.3, respectively. Each section includes county or urban area data on
VMT, average speed, trips by type, trips by purpose, vehicle occupancy,
parking data, and vehicle ownership. Most of this data is presented
without further comment; it has been developed and elaborated on in the
main body of the report.
B-l
-------
B.I SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY DATA
TABLE B-l
SUMMARY OF MOTOR VEHICLE TRAVEL
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel
(in thousands)
Stockton Urban Area
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial s
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Subtotal
Remaining Urban Areas
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Subtotal
Rural
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Subtotal
1971
516
84
1,396
74
220
2,290
280
50
336
18
91
775
711
189
965
95
207
2,167
1975
731
119
1,660
87
276
2,873
382
68
388
20
114
972
1,047
278
1,032
102
260
2,719
1977
845
137
1,784
94
304
3,164
434
77
412
22
126
1,071
1,210
322
1,073
106
286
2,997
1980
1,029
167
1,957
103
346
3,602
513
91
449
24
143
1,220
1,441
383
1,147
113
326
3,410
Average
Speed
(mph)
56.2
26.1
25.1
60.3
25.4
27.6
59.8
49.9
47.1
B-2
-------
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY DATA (CONT'D)
TABLE B-l (Cont'd)
1
!
Stockton Urban
Daily Vehicles Miles of Travel
(in thousands)
Area
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
, Light-duty Vehicles
! Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Total
Countywide
Light-duty
Heavy-duty
Total
Vehicles*
Vehicles
1971
1,507
323
2,697
187
518
5,232
4,722
510
5,232
1975
2,160
465
3,080
209
650
6,564
5,890
674
6,564
1977
2,489
536
3,269
222
716
7.232
6,474
758
7,232
1980
2,983
641
3,553
240
815
8,232
7,351
881
8,232
Average
Speed
(mph)
58.7
58.9
34.5
38.1
34.3
38.6
49.9
43.1
* All local traffic assumed to be light-duty.
B-3
-------
TABLE B-2. WEEKDAY TRIPS BY TYPE OF TRIP AND MODE OF TRAVEL
STOCKTON AREA
Driver Trips
:Type of
; Trip
Intra-Area
Interarea
Through
Total
Total
Autos
260,990
67,083
13,216
341 ,289
Trucks
9,760
8,759
3,492
22,011
Number
270,750
75,842
16,708
363,300
Percent
74.5
20.9
4.6
100.0
Autos
and
Trucks
93,350
46,129
14,238
153,717
Passenger Trips
Total Trips
Total
Transit Number
16,270 109
1 ,670a/ 47
a/ 14
17,940 171
,620
,799
,238
,657
Percent
63.9
27.8
8.3
100.0
Number
380
123
30
534
,370
,641
,946
,957
Percent
71.1
23.1
5.8
100.0
I
-Pi
a/Data on railroad trips and airline trips were not collected.
SOURCE: Stockton Area Transportation Study
-------
TABLE B-3. HOME INTERVIEW WEEKDAY TRIPS BY PURPOSE
STOCKTON AREA
Trip Purpose
Earning a Living
Work
Related Business
Leisure Activities
Home
Social or Entertainment
Recreational
Other Activities
Shopping
Education
Other (Family
Business, etc.)
Change Travel Mode
Serve Passenger
Total
Person
Number
89,830
55,720
34,110
189,220
151,380
28,150
9,690
115,600
48,130
17,950
49,520
1,310
22,660
418,620
Trips
Percent
21.5
13.3
8.2
45.2
36.2
6.7
2.3
27.6
11.5
4.3
11.8
.3
5.4
100.0
Driver
Number
79,940
47,880
32,060
120,950
101,130
16,430
3,390
71 ,470
33,230
4,100
34,140
490
22,660
295,510
Trips
Percent
27.0
16.2
10.8
40.9
34.2
5.6
1.1
24.2
11.2
1.4
11.6
.2
7.7
100.0
Passenger
Number
9,890
7,840
2,050
68,270
50,250
11,720
6,300
44,130
14,900
13,850
15,380
820
_
123,110
Trips
Percent
8.1
6.4
1.7
55.4
40.8
9.5
5.1
35.8
12.1
11.2
12.5
.7
_
100.0
03
I
cn
SOURCE: Stockton Area Transportation Study
-------
TABLE B-4.
PERSONS IN VEHICLE,
WEEKDAY AUTO AND PICKUP DRIVER TRIPS
STOCKTON AREA
I
'Persons in Vehicle
' 1
2
i
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 or more
Unknown
Total
Auto and Pickup
Number
197,550
54,290
15,520
6,890
3,410
1,350
410
220
140
1,900
281 ,680
Driver Trips
Percent
70.1
19.3
5.5
2.5
1.2
.5
.1
.1
a
.7
100.0
a Less than 0.05 percent
SOURCE: Stockton Area Transportation Study
B-6
-------
TABLE B-5
TYPE OF WEEKDAY PARKING
Type of Parking
Residential Property
Parking Lot - Free
Street - Free
Not Parked
Street - Meter
Vehicle Serviced or Repaired
Parking Lot - Paid
Cruised
Garage - Free
Garage - Paid
Unknown
Total
Trips
Number
102,080
98,910
53,730
23,740
7,150
2,740
2,370
1,340
490
400
2,560
295,510
Percent
34.5
33.5
18.2
8.0
2.4
.9
.8
.5
.2
.1
.9
100.0
SOURCE: Transportation Study Stockton Area
Note: As can be seen from Table B-5, the drivers of over two-thirds
of the trips parked either on residential property or in free
parking lots. The 8.0 percent of the trips described as not
parked were those in which only a momentary stop was made to
drop off or pick up passengers.
B-7
-------
TABLE B-6.
VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BY HOUSING UNIT TYPE
Vehicle
Ownership of
Housing Unit
Total Occupied Units
No Vehicles
One Vehicle
Two or More Vehicles
All Housing
Units
Number
59,190
13,160
21,270
24,760
Per-
cent
100.0
22.2
36.0
41,8
Single-Family
Units
Number
41,990
4,040
15,120
22,830
Per-
cent
100.0
9.6
36.0
54.4
Mul ti family
Units.
Number
17,200
9,120
6,150
1,930
Per-
cent
100.0.
53.0
35.8
11.2
SOURCE: Stockton Area Transportation Study
Note: For all types of .occupied housing, there were 7.07 person trips
for each unit on an average weekday. The ratio of person trips
to occupied housing units was 8.45 for single-family dwellings
and 3.71 for multifamily structures.
B-8
-------
B.2 FRESNO COUNTY DATA
TABLE B-7
SUMMARY OF MOTOR VEHICLE TRAVEL
FRESNO COUNTY
Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel
(in thousands)
iFresno and Clovis
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles 1
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Subtotal 2
Remainder of Fresno County
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles 2
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Subtotal 3
Countywide
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles 4
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Total 5
^=
1970
244
53
,553
16
145
,011
414
103
,516
189
671
,893
658
156
,069
205
816
,904
.
1975
590
130
1,811
18
217
2,766
722
181
2,524
190
750
4,367
1,312
311
4,335
208
967
7,133
1977
729
160
1,914
19
246
3,068
846
212
2,527
190
781
4,556
1,575
372
4,441
209
1,027
7,624
1980
937
206
2,069
21
290
3,523
1,032
258
2,532
191
828
4,841
1,969
464
4,601
212
1,118
8,364
Average
Speed
(mph)
50.0
29.0
15.0
60.0
39.0
25.0
56.3
56.6
35.2
41.4
23.2
B-9
-------
FRESNO COUNTY DATA
TABLE B-7 (CONT'D)
Countywide
Light-duty Vehicles*
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Total
Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel
(in thousands)
1970 1975 1977 1980
5,543 6,614 7,043 7,688
361 519 581 676
5,904 7,133 7,624 8,364
Average
Speed
(mph)
35.9
46.2
36.6
* All local traffic assumed to be light-duty.
B-10
-------
TABLE B-8.
SURVEY TRIPS BY TYPE OF TRIP
FRESNO - CLOVIS AREA
Person
Type of Trip
Intra-Area
Interzone
Intrazone
Interarea
(Zone-Cordon)
Through
(Cordon-Cordon)
Total
Number
834
694
140
178
29
1,042
,510
,485
,025
,509
,068
,087
Trips
Driver
Percent
80.
66.
13.
17.
2.
100.
1
6
4
1
8
0
Number
599
499
100
94
12
706
,895
.590
,305
,285
,746
,926
Trips
Passenger
Percent
84
70
14
13
1
100
.9
.7
.2
.3
.8
.0
Trips
Number Percent
234
194
39
84
16
335
,615
,895
,720
,224
,322
,161
70.0
58.1
11.9
25.1
4.9
100.0
Note: Detail percentages may not add to total because of rounding.
SOURCE: Fresno-Clovis Area Transportation Study
B-ll
-------
TABLE B-9
HOME INTERVIEW WEEKDAY TRIPS BY PURPOSE
FRESNO - CLOVIS AREA
Trip Purpose
Earning a Living
Home, Leisure, and
Recreation
Shopping, Education,
Other Activities
Change Travel Mode
Serve Passenger
Total
Person Trips
22.5
43.3
28.3
.4
5.5
100.0 .
Percent of:
Driver Trips
28.6
38.6
24.9
.2
7.7
100.0
Passenger Trips
7.2
55.3
36.6
,9
-
100.0
SOURCE: Fresno - Clovis Area Transportation Study
B-12
-------
TABLE B-10.
WEEKDAY AUTO AND PICKUP DRIVER TRIPS
PERSONS IN VEHICLE,
FRESNO - CLOVIS AREA
Number in Vehicle
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 or more
Not Reported
Total
Trips
Number
423,075
115,710
32,280
14,910
5,670
2,070
1,080
435
330
5,370
600,930
Percent
70.4
19.3
5.4
2.5
.9
.3
.2
.1
.1
.9.
100.0
Note: Detail percentages do not add to total because of rounding.
SOURCE: Fresno - Clovis Area Transportation Study.
B-13
-------
TABLE B-ll.
HOME INTERVIEW WEEKDAY DRIVER TRIPS
TYPE OF PARKING
FRESNO - CLOVIS AREA
Type of Parking
Total Dri
TrijDS
ver
Number Percent
Free Lot
Residential Property
Free Street Place
Paid Lot
Vehicle Serviced or
Repaired
Metered Street Place
Free Garage
Paid Garage
Cruised
Not Parked
Unknown
Total
232,845
210,945
87,810
12,720
6,390
3,945
855
735
6,495
60,105
11,445
634,290 1
36.7
33.3
13.8
2.0
1.0
.6
.1
.1
1.0
9.5
1.8
00.0
First
to
Number
53,430
2,160
4,950
3,780
45
255
165
360
-
1,095
1,065
67,305
Trips
Work
Percent
79.4
3.2
7.4
5.6
.1
.4
.2
.5
-
1.6
1.6
100.0
Other Driver
Trips
Number
179,415
208,785
82,860
8,940
6,345
3,690
690
375
6,495
59,010
10,380
566,985
Percent
31.6
36.8
14.6
1.6
1.1
.7
.1
.1
1.1
10.4
1.8
100.0
Note: Detail percentages may not add to total because of rounding.
SOURCE: Fresno - Clovis Area Transportation Study
B-14
-------
TABLE B-12.
VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BY HOUSING UNIT TYPE
FRESNO - CLOVIS AREA
Number of
Vehicles Owned
Total Occupied
Units
No Vehicles
One Vehicle
Two or More
Vehicles
All Housing
Units
Number Percent
103,545 100.0
14,835 14.3
36,645 35.4
52,065 50.3
Single-Family Multifamily
Units Units
Number Percent Number
74,670 100.0 28,875
6,510 8.7 8,325
23,085 30.9 13,560
45,075 60.4 6,990
Percent
100.0
28.8
47.0
24.2
SOURCE: Fresno - Clovis Area Transportation Study
B-15
-------
B.3 KERN COUNTY DATA
TABLE B-13.
SUMMARY OF MOTOR VEHICLE TRAVEL
KERN COUNTY
Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel
(in thousands)
Bakersfield
Freeway and
Light-duty
Heavy-duty
Arterial
Light-duty
Heavy-duty
Local
Subtotal
Remainder of
Freeway and
Light-duty
Heavy-duty
Arterial
Light-duty
Heavy-duty
Local
Subtotal
Expressway
Vehicles
Vehicles
Vehicles
Vehicles
Kern County
Expressway
Vehicles
Vehicles
Vehicles
Vehicles
1970
494
108
625
6
72
1,305
1,317
329
2,348
232
682
4,908
1975
577
127
918
9
84
1,715
1,972
493
2,399
237
786
5,887
1977
611
134
1,035
10
89
1,879
2,234
559
2,419
239
827
6,278
1980
661
145
1,210
12
96
2,124
2,627
657
2,450
242
890
6,866
Average i
Speed i
(mph)
i^n n i
ou . u
?Q fl
15.0
fin n
?Q n
25.0
B-16
-------
KERN COUNTY DATA (CONT'D)
TABLE B-13 (CONT'D)
Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel
(in thousands)
Countywide
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Total
Countywide
Light-duty Vehicles*
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Total
1970
1,811
437
2,973
238
754
6,213
5,538
675
6,213
1975
2,549
620
3,317
246
870
7,602
6,736
866
7,602
1977
2,845
693
3,454
249
916
8,157
7,215
942
8,157
1980
3,288
802
3,660
254
986
8,990
7,934
1,056
8,990
Average
Speed
(mph)
57.3
57.5
36.9
38.7
24.0
41.8
50.9
42.8
* All local traffic assumed to be light-duty.
B-17
-------
TABLE B-14 TRIPS BY TYPE AND MODE OF TRAVEL
BAKERSFIELD AREA (Weekdays)
CO
I
00
Driver Trips
Type of
Trip
Percent
Autos & of
Autos Trucks Trucks Total
Passenger Trips
Autos & Mass
Trucks Trans.
Percent
of
Total Total
Interarea 53,351 8,144 61,495 13.5 53,131
Through
9,652 3,346 12,998 2.9 17,048
Percent
Total of
Trips Total
Intra-area 365,730 14,800 380,530 83.6 159,160 16,470 175,630 71.5 556,160 79.3
53,131 21.6 114,626 16.4
17,048 6.9 30,046 4.3
Total 428,733 26,290 455,023 100.0 229,339 16,470 245,809 100.0 700,832 100.0
bata does not include cordon-oriented mass transit passengers, bus, air, or rail.
Source: Bakersfield Area Transportation Study
-------
TABLE B-15. HOME INTERVIEW TRIPS BY PURPOSE
BAKERSFIELD AREA - Weekdays
Trip Purpose
Earning a Living
Work
Related Business
Family Business
Medical and Dental
Shopping
Education, Civic,
Religion
Eat Meal
Serve Passenger
Home
Change Travel Mode
Other (Personal
Business, etc.)
Social and Recreational
Vacation
Pleasure Ride
Other (Visit Friends,
etc.)
Unknown
Totals
Person
Number
134,450
73,350
61,100
387,110
4,860
61,010
21 ,750
17,460
37,780
197,270
2,180
44,800
82,050
1,030
13,970
67,050
30
603,640
Trips
Percent
22.3
12.2
10.1
64.1
.8
10.1
3.6
2.9
6.3
32.6
.4
7.4
13.6
.2
2.3
11.1
a
100.0
Driver
Number
119,630
62,510
57,120
257,260
2,820
41 ,590
5,570
12,330
37,610
123,780
700
32,860
34,060
310
940
32,810
10
410,960
Trips
Percent
29.1
15.2
13.9
62.6
.7
10.1
1.4
3.0
9.2
30.0
.2
8.0
8.3
.1
.2
8.0
a
100.0
Passenger
Number
14,820
10,840
3,980
129,680
2,040
19,420
16,180
5,130
-
73,490
1,480
11,940
47,990
720
13,030
34,240
190
192,680
Trips
Percent
7.7
5.6
2.1
67.3
1.1
10.1
8.4
2.7
-
38.0
.8
6.2
24.9
.4
6.8
17.7
.1
100.0
co
10
Less than 0.05 percent
SOURCE: Bakersfield Area Transportation Study
-------
TABLE B-16
TYPE OF PARKING-HOUSING UNIT EXPANDED SAMPLE DATA
BAKERSFIELD AREA (Weekdays)
Type of Parking
Parking Lot - free
Residential Property
Street - free
Not Parked
Street - meter
Service or Repairs
Parking Lot - paid
Cruised
Garage - free
Garage - paid
Unknown
Total
Number
147,440
118,150
101,040
25,910
6,440
3,600
2,910
1,960
1,170
80
2,260
410,960
Percent
35.9
28.7
24.6
6.3
1.6
.9
.7
.5
.3
a
.5
100.0
aLess than .05 percent
NOTE: Home interview respondents who made driver trips were asked the
type of parking used at the destination of their trips. Table
B-16 summarizes the estimates of parking by type obtained from
the home interview survey.
SOURCE: Bakersfield Area Transportation Study
B-20
-------
TABLE B-17
VEHICLES BY HOUSING UNIT TYPE
BAKERSFIELD AREA
Total Units
Units Having
Zero Vehicles
One Vehicle
Two or More
Vehicles
Total
Occupied
Housing
Units
56,510
7,370
21,710
27,430
Per-
cent
100.0
13.0
38.4
48.6
Single-
Family
Struc-
tures
48,670
4,840
17,740
26,090
Per-
cent
100.0
9.9
36.4
53.7
Mul ti -
Unit
Struc-
tures
7,840
2,530
3,970
1,340
Per-
cent
100.0
32.3
50.6
17.1
SOURCE: Bakersfield Area Transporation Study
B-21
-------
APPENDIX C
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
General Approach
The basic equation used for calculating aircraft emissions of total
hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen for a specific
aircraft class is as follows:
Emissions of a Specific Pollutant
Emission factor for x Number of engines on x Number of LTO
the aircraft class aircraft in the class cycles performed by
the aircraft class
Emission factors are documented by the EPA (C-4) in terms of pounds of
pollutant emitted per engine per Landing Takeoff (LTO) cycle and are
presented in Table C-l. If types of aircraft within a class have different
numbers of engines, an average number for the class may be used, or the
LTO for the class may be segregated according to engine number.
The number of LTO cycles performed by each type of aircraft within
a region must be known or estimated for the base year associated with
that region. The aircraft classes designated by EPA are shown in
Table C-2.
One special case of base year emission calculations differs from
EPA emission factor documentation. This special case involves Aircraft
Class 3 only, and results from the fact that aircraft in this class
(primarily Boeing 727's, 737's, and Douglas DC-9's) underwent a burner can
retrofit program from 1970 to 1972. Although, the object of this program
was to reduce the exhaust smoke from these aircraft, additional effects
were the reduction of hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions, and
the increase of oxides of nitrogen emissions. The emission factors
before and after the program were as follows (C-l):
THC CO NOV
A
Pre-retrofit 4.9 Ib/engine/LTO 20.0 Ib/engine/LTO 10.2 Ib/engine/LTO
Post-retrofit 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO 17.0 Ib/engine/LTO 12.2 Ib/engine/LTO
C-l
-------
TABLE C-l. EMISSION FACTORS PER LANDING-TAKEOFF CYCLE FOR AIRCRAFT
(Lbs/Engine and Kg/Engine)
Aircraft Class i Total Hydrocarbons Carbon Monoxide Nitrogen Oxides
Lb
1 12.2
2 41.2
3 4.9a
4 2.9
5 3.6
6 1.1
7 0.40
8 : 40.7
9 .52
10 2.7
11 9.93
12 20.4
Kg i Lb
5.5 : 46.8
18.7 47.4
2.2a 20. Oa
1.3 6.6
1.6 15.8
.5 3.1
.18 12.2
18.5 304.0
.24 5.7
1.2 5.7
4.5 15.1
9.3 152.0
Kg Lb
21.2 31.4
21.5 7.9
9.0a 10. 2a
3.0 2.5
7.17 1.6
1.4 1.2
5.5 0.047
138.0 .40
2.6 .57
2.6 2.2
6.85 3.29
69.0 .20
Kg
14.2
3.6
4.6a
1.1
.73
.54
.021
.18
.26
1 .0
1.49
.09
o
I
PO
This value describes emissions prior to burner can retrofit.
Source: "Aircraft" - Revision to AP-42, Environmental
Protection Agency, 1973.
-------
TABLE C-2. EPA AIRCRAFT CLASSIFICATION
Aircraft
Class
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12
Aircraft
Class
Name
Jumbo Jet
Long Range Jet
Medium Range Jet
Air Carrier
Turboprop
Business Jet
General Aviation
Turboprop
General Aviation
Piston
Piston Transport
Helicopter
Military Transport
Military Piston
Example Aircraft
and Number of
Events
Boeing 747 (4)
Lockheed L-1011 (3)
McDonald Douglas DC-10
(3)
Boeing 707 (4)
McDonald Douglas DC-8
(4)
Boeing 737, 727
McDonald Douglas DC-9
(2)
Convair 580; (2)
Electra L-188 (4)
Fairchild Hiller
FH-227 (2)
Lockheed Jetstar (2)
Cessna 210 (1)
Piper 32-300 (1)
Douglas DC-6 (4)
CONV 440 (2)
Sikorsky S-61 (2)
Vertol 107 (2)
Lockhead (C-130)
(4)
Engines Most
Commonly Used
Pratt & Witney
JT-9D
Pratt & Witney
JT-3D
Pratt & Witney
JT-8D
Allison 501 -Dl 3
General Electric
CJ610
Pratt & Witney
JT-12A
Pratt & Witney
PT-6A
Teledyne-Contin-
ental 0-200
Lycoming 0-320
Pratt & Witney
R-2800
General Electric
CT-58
Al listen T56A7
(T-PROP)
Rpnpral Fl prtri r
J-79
Continental J-69
R-1820
Source: "Aircraft" - Revision to AP-42, Environmental Protection
Agency, 1973.
C-3
-------
It was assumed, for simplicity, that the program proceeded at a constant
rate through the three year period. Thus, in mid-year 1970, for example,
the program was 1/6 complete, and the average emission factors for this
base year were:
THC: 4.9 Ib/engine/LTO - 1/6 x (4.9 - 3.5) Ib/engine/LTO = 4.7 Ib/engine/LTO
CO: 20.0 - 1/6 x (20.0 - 17.0) = 19.5
NOV: 10.2 - 1/6 x (10.5 - 12.2) = 10.5
A
The emission factors for all three base years of concern in this study
are given in Table C-3 for Class 3 aircraft.
TABLE C-3. EMISSION FACTORS FOR CLASS 3 AIRCRAFT
Pollutant
THC
CO
NOV
x
(Units: Ib/engine/LTO)
1970
4.7
19.5
10.5
1971
4.2
18.5
11.2
1972
3.7
17.5
11.9
The equations and data used for projecting aircraft emissions to
1975, 1977, and 1980 are shown in Table C-4. The reader will note that
this table does not include information for military aircraft. In
some cases, growth data was obtained for particular military air bases;
in most cases, however, insufficient data was available for reasonably
accurate projections of military aircraft emissions, and operations
growth and emission reduction effects in future years were ignored.
The first data column in the table provides estimates (C-l) of engine
life for turbines (15 years) and pistons (20 years). The second column
lists the equations derived for estimating future emissions from known
base year emissions (EBY)> growth rate (G), and emission reductions (R).
EgY is expressed in terms' of tons/day of the pollutant from the indicated
aircraft class. G is the fraction increase of base year emissions,
except when used in calculating Ego, the emissions for 1980, where Eyg
is the synthetic base year, and growth is expressed as a fraction increase
C-4
-------
TABLE C-4. DATA FOR COMPUTATION OF PROJECTED CIVIL AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
Aircraft Engine
Class life. I (jn-)
Projected
Emission Equation, G(Fract1on Increase
E (ttms/yr) B.Y.: '70 '71
1 . Jumbo Jet IS E75 * EBY
E77
E78
^0
2. Long Range Jet IS £75
E77
E7B
la
E80
3. Medium Range Jet IS E;s
E77
E78
E80
4. Air Carrier IS (See
Turboprop
5. Business Jet IS (See
EBY
EBY
E78
EBY
EBY
" EBY
E78
E8Y
EBY
EBY
'E7B
Class
Class
6. General Aviation 15 (See Class
Turboprop
7. General Aviation 20 (See Class
Piston
8. Piston Transport 20 (See Class
9. Helicopter* IS (See
Class
(1*0)
(1*0)
(1*0)
(1*0 (1-R) - R ( £ ))
(1*6) (1-R)
(HO) (1-R)
(1*0) (1-R)
(1*0 (1-R) -»(£))
(1*G) (1-R)
(1*G) (1-R)
(HG) (1-R)
(1*0 (1-R) - R ( \ ))
1)
1)
1)
1)
1)
1)
.78
.92
-
-.11
-.11
-.10
-
.51
.78
.92
-
-.SO
-1.00
-1.00
.96
1.40
1.63
-
.96
1.40
1.63
-
.39
.53
.60
-
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
.52
.71
.83
*
.68
.82
-
-.13
-.13
-.12
-
.42
.68
.82
-
-.50
-1.00
-1.00
.68
1.10
1.30
.68
1.10
1.30
.31
.45
.52
-
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
.38
.57
.66
-
Growth.
of u>se Year Fleet
72 '78 B
IB
.51
.63
.14
-.11
-.11
-.11
0
.28
.51
.63
.14
-.50
-1.00
-1.00
42
.77
.95
.18
.42
.77
.95
.18
.24
.37
.43
.09
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
.24
.41
.49
.11
.».: '70
IT
0
0
-
0.06
0.33
0.39
-
0.26
0.26
0.26
-
(See
Emission Reductions
HC
'71 '72 '78 '70
0 0 -
00-
0 0
0.70
0.06 0.06
0.33 0.33
0.39 0.39
0.70
0.17 0.05
0.17 0.05
0.17 0.05
0.70
Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(see
0
0
0
-
w
.
-
(See
Class 1)
00-
00-
0 0
0.50
-
-
Class 1)
0
0
0
-
0.015
0.077
0.093
-
0.13
0.13
0.13
-
R (Fraction of Base Year Emissions)
CO N0)(
'71 '72 '78 '70 '71 '72 '78
0
0
0
-
0.01 S
0.077
0.093
-
0.08
0.08
o.oe
-
0
0
0
0.60
0.015
0.077
0.093
0.60
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.60
(See Class 1)
(See
Class 1)
f
(See Class 1)
0
0
0
-
.
-
(See
0
0
0
-
.
_
-
Class 1)
0
0
0
0.50
_
-
666 '- -
000-
000-
o
(See Class 1)
-0.03 -0.09 -0.16
-0.03 -0.09 -0.16
-0.03 -0.09 -0.16
0
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1 1
1
o
CJ1
' It Is assumed that til nave turbine engines.
-------
in emissions from 1978. Similarly, emission reduction is expressed as
a fraction decrease of base year emissions for the indicated projection
year. The reduction is based on 1978 emissions for calculating projected
1980 emissions. The derivation of values for G and R will be discussed
later.
The equations used for Aircraft Class 1 and Classes 4 through 9 are
identical. Emissions in 1975, 1977, and 1978 are calculated by simply
applying the appropriate growth factor to the base year emissions for each
class. Here, 1978 emissions are calculated only for use in projecting
1980 emissions. The expression for Efi0 differs from the preceding equations
in the table because of proposed Federal aircraft emission regulations which
affect all new engines produced after 1 January 1979 (C-2). This expression
contains essentially three terms and was derived as follows:
1. 2. 3.
1980 Emissions = 1978 emissions + emissions increase - emissions reduction
due to growth in due to engine
operations replacement
Term 1: 1978 Emissions = E7g, as previously calculated
Term 2: Emissions increase due to growth in operations = G X (1-R) XE
(NOTE: Since this growth occurs after the proposed emission
regulations come into effect, the growth must be modified
by the application of an appropriately reduced emission
rate, ergo the (1-R) factor.)
1980-1978
Term 3: Emissions reduction due to engine replacement = R X ( j )xE
78
= R X ( ) xE?8
where L is the life of the engine. The fraction 2/1 represents the
fraction of the aircraft engines of a particular class in 1978 which will
be. replaced with new engines by 1980. This fraction effects a
proportionate reduction in emissions, since the replacement engines must
comply with the 1 January 1979 emission standards.
C-6
-------
Thus, the emissions equation for 1980 reduces to the following:
E80 = E78 (1 +G (1-R) -R (f } )
Classes 2 and 3 are special cases as one may observe from Table 3,
because of burner can retrofit programs which effectively reduce hydro-
carbon and carbon monoxide emissions and increase (for Class 3) the oxides
of nitrogen emissions. These programs affect emissions in 1975 and 1977,
and the respective emission equations must show this.
For Class 2, the retrofit program is assumed (C-l) to be planned for
the three-year period from 1975 through 1977. It is estimated (C-l) to
have the following effect on emission factors:
THC CO NOY
/\
Pre-retrofit 41 lb/engine/LTD 47.4 Ib/engine/LTO 7.9 lb/engine/LTD
Post-retrofit 25 lb/engine/LTD 43.0 lb/engine/LTD 7.9* lb/engine/LTD
The equations used for estimating 1975, 1977, and 1978 emissions were
derived as follows, taking the projection year 1975 for the purpose of
illustration.
1. 2. 3.
1975 emissions = base year + emissions increase due - emissions reduction due
emissions to growth in operations to portion of retro-
fit program complete by
mid-1975
Term 1: Base year emissions = EO\J> as calculated for each region
Term 2: Emissions increase due to growth in operations = G X £«
Term 3: Emissions reduction due to portion of retrofit program complete by
mid-1975 =
R X (1+6) X E
BY
* The effect on NO emissions is difficult to estimate at this time and
is assumed to be negligible.
C-7
-------
Where:
R is the appropriate reduction factor for 1975 (discussed later
in this text).
Thus,
E75 = EBY + (G X EBY) - R x (1+G) X EBY
= EBY (1+G) (1-R)
Emissions for 1977 and 1978 are calculated similarly.
For Class 3 aircraft, similar logic leads to identical equations, this
time because the retrofit program, as described previously in this text,
was at a different stage of completion for each base year used, whether
1970, 1971, or 1972. Thus, the effective reduction in emissions from the
base year to 1975, 1977, or 1978 depends on the base year selected.
Projected growth rates are expressed in the table as the fraction
increase in the base year fleet of the particular type of aircraft. These
growth factors are used in the emission projections as increases in opera-
tions; it is assumed that operations (i.e., LTO cycles) vary in direct
proportion to the number of aircraft in use. The source data for these
factors are projections of the national aircraft fleet size made by the
Federal Aviation Admin. (C-5). These projections are shown in Table C-5. Growth
factors were calculated from these projections by simply dividing the fleet
size for the projected year by the fleet size in the appropriate base year
and subtracting one. Projected fleet sizes for 1978 were obtained by
interpolating the data in the table for 1975 and 1980.
Table C-6 shows how the FAA fleet categories designated in Table C-5
were correlated with the EPA aircraft classes. The reader will note
that projections for "commercial air carrier: jet: 2 and 3-engine" were
used for EPA Class 1, jumbo jets, even though one of the three typical
types of jumbo jets (the 747) has four engines. The reason for this is
that FAA has projected a declining population of four-engine commercial
jets, and this is certainly not true of the 747. The growth rates derived
from FAA projections for 2 and 2-engine jets seem typical of 747 use
C-8
-------
TABLE C-5. COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. AIR CARRIER FLEET BY TYPE OF AIRCRAFT AND NUMBER OF ENGINES
December 31, 1969-1980
o
vo
Type of Aircraft
COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIER:
Fixed-wing, Total 2,672
Jet 2,068
2- and 3-engine 1,182
4-engine 886
SST
Turboprop 380
1- and 2-engine 269
4-engine Ill
Piston 224
1- and 2-engine 160
4-engine 64
Helicopter, Total 18
Turbine 15
GENERAL AVIATION:
Fixed-wing, Total 126,815
Piston 124,586
Multiengine 15,982
Single-engine 108,604
Turbine 2,229
Helicopter, Total 2,557
Dec. 31
1969
Forecast Air Carrier Fleet December 31
1970
2,782
2,213
1,233
980
367
279
88
202
134
68
18
18
137,200
134,300
17,400
116,900
2,900
3,100
1971
2,870
2,311
1,307
1,004
382
297
85
177
122
55
20
20
145,800
142,400
18,700
123,700
3,400
3,400
1972
2,969
2,439
1.453
986
370
299
71
.160
114
46
21
21
154,300
150,300
20,000
130,300
4,000
3,800
1975
3,245
2,772
1,858
876
876
348
293
55
125
90
35
25
25
179,900
174,200
24,100
150,100
5,700
4,700
1980
3,930
3,679
2,697
880
102
216
211
5
35
25
10
30
30
225,700
216,600
31 ,800
184,800
9,100
6,300
Source: Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1970 - 1981. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation
Administration, Office of Aviation Economics, Aviation Forecast Division.
-------
in the San Joaquin Valley, while the rates derived from projections for
4-engine jets are reasonable for EPA Class 2 operations.
TABLE C-6. AIRCRAFT CLASS CORRELATION
EPA
Aircraft
Class
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EPA
Aircraft
Category
Commercial Air Carrier:
Jet: 2 and 3-engine
Commercial Air Carrier
JET: 4-engine
Commercial Air Carrier:
JET: 2 and 3-engine
General Aviation:
General Aviation:
General Aviation:
Turbine
Turbine
Piston, Total
General Aviation: Hellicopter
FAA projections were not used for Class 4 (air carrier turboprops)
growth factors because they are not reasonable for application in the
San Joaquin Valley. The only commercial air carrier using turboprops in
the basin is Hughes Air West. The Fairchild F-27's used by Air West will
be totally replaced by Douglas DC-9's by 1977 (c-3). Accordingly, a
negative growth of -50% was used for 1975, and a negative growth of -100%
was used for 1977.
Similarly, it was estimated that any piston transports presently
in use in the San Joaquin Valley will not be in use by 1975.
Emission reductions are shown in Table C-4 for each base year,
each projected year, each pollutant, and each aircraft class. Emission
reductions effective in 1975, 1977, and 1978 result from the burner can
retrofit programs involving Class 2 and Class 3 aircraft, described earlier
C-10
-------
in the text. All Class 2 aircraft had the same (pre-retrofit) emission
factor, regardless whether the base year was 1970, 1971, or 1972. However,
the future emission factor depends on the projected year, since the retro-
fit program is planned for 1975 through 1977. Thus, since the.pre-retro-
fit total hydrocarbon emission factor for Class 2 aircraft was 41 lb/engine/
LTO and the post-retrofit emission factor will be 25 Ib/engine/LTO, the aver-
age emission factor in 1975 will be:
1
41 Ib/engine/LTO - 1/6 x (41 - 25) Ib/engine/LTO
and the reduction factor R will be:
1/6 x (414]" 25) = 0.06 (in other words, 6%)
Reductions for 1977 and 1978 were calculated similarly and appear in
Table C-4. '
For Class 3 aircraft, the reduction depends on the base year, since
the burner can retrofit program was carried out from 1970 through 1972.
The emission factors for Class 3 aircraft are shown in Table 2 for all
three base years. Thus, since the post-retrofit total hydrocarbon emission
factor is (as was indicated earlier) 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO, and the 1970
emission factor was 4.7 Ib/engine/LTO, the reduction R for 1975, 1977,
and 1978 (i.e., any year after the retrofit program was completed but before
new standards come into effect) is:
4.7 Ib/engine/LTO - 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO n 9(-
4.7 Ib/engine/LTOu'^°
Reductions corresponding to the other two base years are shown on Table C-4.
Emission reductions for all classes of aircraft between 1978 and
1980 are a result of the proposed Federal emission standards, to be
effective on new turbine and piston aircraft engines starting 1 January 1979.
The emissions from each new engine (i.e., each engine manufactured on or
after 1 January 1979) will be lower than the emissions from its older
(i.e., pre-1979) counterpart by the estimated (C-l) reduction values shown
C-ll
-------
in Table C-4. A reliable estimate for the reduction to be expected for
oxides of nitrogen has not yet been developed, and is assumed to be zero
for the time being.
C-12
-------
COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS
Federal Aviation Administration statistics (C-7) were used for data on
commercial air carrier operations at airports in San Joaquin, Fresno, and Kern
counties. In each county there is one airport (inside the air basin) at
which FAA certificated air carriers operate; these three airports are
listed in Table C-7, along with the corresponding number of departures per
aircraft type in the twelve-month period ending 30 June 1971. This data was
the most recent data available from the FAA. It was used for all three
counties (whether the base year was 1970 or 1971), under the assumption
that aircraft operations do not vary significantly in a six months period.
Base Year Emissions by aircraft type were calculated with the data
shown in Table C-8, and in the following manner:
Emissions = Emission factor Number of engines Number of LTO
for the aircraft x for the aircraft x cycles for the air-
class type craft type
Emission projections were made to 1975, 1977, and 1978 according to the
procedure described earlier in the. text. The estimates, in tons per day,
are shown in Table C-8 for total hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and oxides
of nitrogen.
C-13
-------
TABLE C-7. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS IN BASE YEAR
o
i
Departures9 During 12-Month
Airline Aircraft Type
RW F-27
DC-9-10
DC-9-30
UA B-737-200
B-727-100
B-727-100C/QC
B-727-200
DC-8-1 0/20/30
DC-8-61
B-720
RW = Hughes Air West
Stockton
Metropolitan
Airport
493
346
138
925
136
96
5
0
1
UA = United Air
Ending 30 June 1971°
Fresno
Air Terminal
102
267
1584
2956
911
408
249
2
1
2
Lines
Period
Meadows Field
(Kern County)
842
3
2074
49
4
3
Source:
Airport Activity Statistics of Certificated Route Air Carriers: 12 months
ended June 30. 1971. Published by Civil Aeronautics Board and Department
of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration
Assume departures = LTO cycles.
Most recent data available.
cFresno base year is 1970; however, detailed information is not available for 1970.
-------
TABLE C-8. CALCULATION OF COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIER EMISSIONS
Airport
Stockton
Metropolitan
Stockton. Calif.
Fresno Air Terminal
Fresno, Calif.
Meadows Field
Eatersfleld, Calif.
Aircraft
Class
2
3
4
TOTAL
2
3
4
TOTAL
3
4
TOTAL
Aircraft
Type
DC -8
B-727
' B-727
DC-9
P-27
DC -8
D-720
B-727
B-737
DC-9
F-27
B-727
B-737
DC-9
P-27
Umber
Engines
4
3
2
2
2
4
4
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
Emission Factors (62)
(Lb/Englne/LTO)
TKC CO NOX Rase Yr.
41.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
2.9
41.2
41.2
4.7
4.7
4.7
2.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
2.9
47.4
18.0
18.0
18.0
6.6
47.4
47.4
17.3
17.3
17.3
6.6
18.0
18.0
18.0
6.6
7.9
10.2
10.2
10.2
2.5
7.9
7.9
10.2
10.2
10.2
2.5
10.2
10.2
10.2
2.5
o.ooo
0.004)
0.011 }
0.006)
0.004'
0.025
0.001 I
o.ooo 1
0.030 )
0.038 >
0.024 J
0.001
0.094
0.001 1
0.024 >
o.ooo)
0.007
0.032
Total HC
1975
0.009
0.025
0.002
0.027
0.001
0.102
0.000
0.103
0.029
0.003
0.032
1977 1980
0.000 0.000
0.035 0.033
i
. (Phased Out)'
0.031 0.030
0.001 0.000
0.121 0.124
(Phased Out)
0.122 0.124
0.035 0.036
(Phased Out)
0.035 0.036
Emissions
CO
.Base Tr. 1975
0.000
0.018)
0.046)
0.024)
0.009
0.097
0.001 \
0.000)
0.111 )
0.140 >
0.088)
0.002
0.342
0.004 )
0.102 >
o.ooo)
0.015
0.121
0.000
0.098
0.004
0.102
0.0011
0.445
0.001
0.447
0.138
0.007
0.145
(tons/day)
1977 1980
0.000 0.000
0.110 0.144
(Phased Out)
0.110 0.144
0.0011 0.001
0.525 0.553
(Phased Out)
0.526 0.554
0.164 0.168
(Phased Out)
0.164 0.168
Base Yr.
0.000
0.010 )
0.026 }
0.014 )
0.003
0.053
O.OUO 1
0.000 (
0.065 )
0.083 >
O.OS2 )
0.001
0.201
0.002 )
0.058 }
0.000 )
0.006
0.066
no
1975
0.000
0.065
0.004
0.066
0.000
0.260
0.000
0.260
0.077
0.003
0.080
" 1977 1980
0.000 0.000
0.076 0.094
(Phased Out)
0.076 0.094
0.000 0.000
0.345 0.425
(Phased Out)
0.345 0.425
0.092 0.113
(Phased Out)
0.092 0.113
o
I
" F-27's will be phased out by 1977 it these airports.
-------
Non-Commercial Aircraft Emissions
Non-commercial aviation (general aviation, air taxi, and military)
operations are carried out at 23 airports in the three counties of
San Joaquin, Fresno, and Kern. These airports are listed in Table C-9.
Non-commercial aviation at these airports is comprised mainly of small
piston type aircraft, the large majority of which are single engine
planes.
Landing and takeoff (LTD) activity of non-commercial aircraft in each
base year was determined from FAA Airport Master Records (C-8). These
records were available from the Department of Transportation, Federal
Aviation Administration. They provide a summary of takeoff and land
operations for air taxi, military aircraft, and general aviation at each
airport. Information extracted from these records is also shown in
Table C-9.
Non-commercial aviation is primarily Class 7, except for a small
amount of helicopter activity.
Multi-engine aircraft were assumed to be primarily twin-engine air-
craft. The overall distribution of twin-engine, single-engine, and
helicopter operations for all the airports was assumed to be equal to the
distribution of total twins, total singles, and helicopters actually based
at all the airports. Consequently, 88 percent of all non-commercial flight
operations were assumed to be carried out by single-engine aircraft,
11 percent by twins, and one percent by helicopter (see Table C-9).
Non-commercial aviation emissions for each base year were computed
utilizing CO, NO , and hydrocarbon emission factors from the preliminary
A
EPA revision to document AP-42 (C-4) and the LTD frequency tabulations.
The base year emission totals for each county are shown in Table C-10.
Future aircraft emissions from non-commercial operations were
estimated for 1975, 1977, and 1980. The estimates are calculated with
the use of projected aircraft growth rates and expected engine emission
reductions as outlined in Table C-4, "Data for Computation of Projected
Civil Aircraft Emissions". For these calculations, helicopter operations
have been ignored, since they accounted for only one percent, approximately,
C-16
-------
TABLE C-9. NON-COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS IN BASE YEAR
Airport
San Joaquin County
Stockton Metropolitan
Stockton, Calif.
Linds
Lodi, Calif.
Tracy Municipal
Tracy, Calif.
Total - San Joaquin County
Aircraft Operations
Fresno County
Fresno Air Terminal
Fresno, Calif.
Fresno-Chandler Municipal
Fresno, Calif.
Selma
Selma, Calif
Dos Pal os
Dos Pal os, Calif.
Eagle Field
Dos Pal os, Calif.
Coalinga Municipal
Coalinga, Calif.
General
Annual
Local
50,396
20,000
7,000
65,579
46,013
20,000
15,000
9,000
1,000
Aviation
Annual
Itinerant Air Taxi
56,972 2,000
30,000 200
15,000 1,000
124,909 10,000
77,990 1,000
10,000 0
5,000 0
8,000 0
3,000 400
Total
Base Year
Military Operations
14,702 124,070
0 50,200
100 23,100
197,370
21,303 219,791
103 125,106
0 30,000
0 20,000
0 17,000
150 4,550
Based General Aviation Aircraft
Single Multi -Engine9
Aircraft Aircraft Helicopters
89
69
49
160
175
40
17
27
18
15 5
1 1
1 0
30 3
30 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1 0
Total
109
71
50
193
205
40
17
27
19
o
I
-------
TABLE C-9 (Continued)
o
I
CO
Airport
Fresno County (Continued)
Sierra Sky Park
Mendota
Reedly
Sanger
Total - Fresno County
Aircraft Operations
Kern County
Meadows Field
Bakersfield, Calif.
Shafter-Kern Co. Airport #14
Shafter, Calif.
Delano-Kern Co. Airport #3
Delano, Calif.
Tehachapi-Kern Co. Airport #4
Tehachapi , Calif.
Bakersfield Airpark
Bakersfield, Calif.
Holiday Haven
Tehachapi, Calif.
General
Annual
Local
15,000
1,000
6,000
4,000
40,409
42,000
20,000
10,000
13,000
12,000
Aviation
Annual
Itinerant Air Taxi Military
10,000 0 0
5,000 0 0
2,000 0 0
6,000 0 0
98,798 650 3,882
1,000 0 0
5,100 200 20
10,000 3,000 0
2,000 (Unknown) 50
2,500 0 0
Total
Base Year
Operations
25,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
465,447
143,739
43,000
25,320
23,000
15,050
14,500
Single
Aircraft
30
3
14
6
170
28
39
18
115
5
Mul ti -Engine3
Aircraft Helicopters Total
1 0 31
0 03
0 0 14
0 06
45 0 215
3 1 32
2 0 41
1 0 19
5 0 120
0 05
-------
TABLE C-9 (Continued)
Based General Aviation Aircraft
Source: FAA Airport Master Records (FAA Form 5010-1), Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration
Airport
Kern Valley- Kern Co.
Airport #13
Kernville, Calif.
Wasco-Kern Co. Airport #5
Wasco, Calif.
Lost Hills-Kern Co.
Airport #9
Lost Hills, Calif.
Leutholtz5
Taft, Calif.
Total - Kern County Aircraft
Operations
General Aviation
Annual Annual
Local Itinerant Air Taxi
1,200 6,000 100
6,100 300 0
600 600 200
TOTAL - (3 counties)-Based General Aviation Aircraft
Total
Base Year Single
Military Operations Aircraft
100 7,400 9
0 6,400 15
20 1 ,420 1
279,829
1097
(88%)
Multi -Engine3
Aircraft
0
1
0
13G
(11%)
Helicopters Total
0 9
0 16
0 1
10 1243
(1%) (100%)
Assumed to be twin.
No data available.
-------
TABLE C-10. CALCULATION OF BASE YEAR EMISSIONS FROM NON-COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
c->
no
o
County Total LTOa
San Joaquin 98,685
Fresno 232,724
Kern 139,914
Emission THC
Factors CO
, UsedC NOV
(Ib/LTO)
aGeneral aviation plus air
h
Aircraft Emissions (tons/day)
Distribution
Class 7 Class 9 . THC CO NOX
Single Twin Helicopter Base Yr. 1975 1977 1980 Base Yr. 1975 1977 1980 Base Yr. 1975 1977 1980
86,843
204,797
123,124
0.40
12.2
0.047
10,855
25,600
15,390
0.80
24.4
0.094
987 0.059 0.077 0.086 0.090 1.830 2.397 2.654 2.794 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.013
2,327 0.126 0.175 0.193 0.202 3.860 5.365 5.906 6.175 0.018 0.025 0.028 0.031
1399 0.086 0.113 0.125 0.131 2.856 3.741 4.141 4.361 0.012 0.016 0.017 0.020
1.04
11.4
1.14
taxi plus military operations at civilian airports, divided by 2.
Helicopters assumed to have two engines.
C5ee reference C-4.
-------
of total base year operations. To illustrate the use of the table in
computing projected emission estimates, an example calculation is shown
below:
Consider the projected total,hydrocarbon emissions in 1977 for
San Joaquin County. According to Table C-4, the expected emissions will be
E77 = EBY (1+6) (1-R)
where
EBY = emissions in base year (1971) = 0.059 tons/day
G = growth in fraction increase of base year fleet = .45
R = expected emission reduction, in fraction of base
year emissions = 0
E?7 = 0.059 (1+.45) (1-0) = 0.086
Projections for 1975, 1977, and 1980 in all three counties are shown
in Table C-10.
C-21
-------
Military Air Base
Lemoore Naval Air Station is the only military air base in the
counties of San Ooaquin, Fresno, and Kern. Lemoore is located in the city
of Lemoore, California, on the boundary between Fresno and Kings Counties.
The operations data for the air base is as follows (C-9):
Number of military operations in 1970: 135774
Number of civilian operations in 1970: 4557
In terms of Landing Takeoff (LTD) Cycles*,
Military LTO: 67887
Civilian LTO: 2278
The distribution of these cycles by aircraft class is estimated (C-10, C-ll)
to be as follows, for all years considered:
Military: all Class 11 (Military Jet), single engine
Civilian: all Class 7 (General Aviation, Piston), single engine
Evidence of expected growth in operations at Lemoore (either positive or
negative) is not available; therefore, growth is not anticipated in this
study. The emission factors (Ib/engine/LTO) used are as follows:
THC CO N0v
A
Class 11 -- 9.93 15.1 3.29
Class 7 0.40 12.2 0.047
The emissions from military and civilian aircraft operations at Lemoore
are calculated as follows:
(Number of \ /Number of enginesX / emission \
LTO Cycleslxl per aircraft (one I xl factor 1
/ \in each c.ase) / \ /
emission
rate
* Aircraft operation at a military air base is defined as either a
landing or a takeoff.
C-22
-------
The resultant emission estimations are given in Table C-ll.
Table C-ll ESTIMATED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS AT LEMOORE NAVAL AIR STATION
THC:
CO:
N0x:
Military
Civilian
Total
Military
Civilian
Total
Military
Civilian
Total
1970
0.9234
0.0012
0.92
4.3521
0.0377
4.39
0.3059
0.0001
0.31
1975
0.9234
0.0012
0.92
4.3521
0.0377
4.39
0.3059
0.0001
0.31
1977
0.9234
0.0012
0.92
4.3521
0.0377
4.39
0.3059
0.0001
0.31
1980
0.9234
0.0012
0.92
4.3521
0.0377
4.39
0.3059
0.0001
0.31
C-23
-------
REFERENCES
C-l. Private communication with Mr. Robert Sampson, Environmental
Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan, May 1973.
C-2. Federal Register, Environmental Protection Agency, December 12,
1972.
C-3. Private communication with Personnel at Hughes Air West, Planning
Division, May 1973.
C-4. "Aircraft", - Revision to AP-42, Environmental Protection Agency,
1973.
C-5 Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1970-1981, Department of
Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Aviation
Economics, Aviation Forecast Division.
C-6. FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1970 Edition, Department of
Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.
C-7. Airport Activity Statistics of Certificated Route Air Carriers:
12 Months Ended June 30, 1971. Published by Civil Aeronautics
Board and Department of Transportation,
C-8. FAA Airport Master Records (FAA Form 5010-1), Department of
Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.
C-9. Military Air Traffic Activity Report, Calendar Year 1970.
Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.
C-10. Private communication with U. S. Air Force Representatives,
Los Angeles, California, May 1973.
C-11. Private communication with California Air Resources Board
Personnel, May 1973.
C-24
-------
APPENDIX D
PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY
Questionnaires were sent as part of this study to a select mail panel
in the major metropolitan area of each county -- Stockton, Fresno, and
Bakersfield. These questionnaires included questions involving transporta-
tion and environmental pollution; examples of the questionnaire used
are presented later in this appendix, along with summaries of the results
of the survey. Responses from Attitudinal Questionnaires sent to house-
holds in the Bakersfield, Fresno and Stockton metropolitan areas within
the San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Control Region were comprised of the
following distributions by annual family income and autos per household.
Annual Number of Percent of
Family Income Respondents Sample
Less than $8,000 53 30.3
$8,000 to $15,000 80 45.7
More than $15,000 42 24.0
Total 175 100.0
Autos Per Household
None 4 2.3
One 63 36.0
Two 84 48.0
Three or more 15 8.6
Unknown 9_ 5.1
Total 175 100.0
The number of respondents' homes in each of the metropolitan areas
were:
Bakersfield 44
Fresno 66
Stockton 65
Total 175
D-l
-------
Questionnaire responses were tabulated by income level and car
ownership status of each panel member's family. A summary of the results
of the survey for the three metropolitan areas combined is presented in
Section D.I. Summaries for each area are presented individually in
Sections D.2 through D.4.
D-1- COMBINED RESULTS FOR STOCKTON, FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD
1. All autos made in 1975 and thereafter will be equipped with emission c onlrol devirr;: (<., reduce air
pollution. If in 1975 you owned a car built before that year, how would you feel about a law n--_
quiring you to put emission control equipment which might cost $125 on your car? ("X" JiLLOV.')
2. How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by frovcrnment subsidy to about f 50V
("X" BELOW)
Feeling Toward Law: 1. Cost $125 2_. Cost $50
Very much in favor of law. . 15.2% 39.9%
Somewhat in favor of law. . . 17. 9 28. 8
Somewhat against law 20. 0 12. 3
Very much against law 46. 9 19. 0
3a. Even cars properly equipped with, emission control equipment might still pollute the air if the equip
mciit was not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic inspection o:
the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in Somewhat in Somewhat Very much
favor of law favor of law against law against law
43.1% 35.1% 10.9% 10.9%
3b. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, what would you consider a
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
$7.72 Average
3c. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection
should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY)
At state-operated inspection centers 39. 9%
At city-operated'inspection centers 13. 9
At local service stations or garages 41.6
At some other place (Specify): 4-6
D-2
-------
To Me This Plan Is:
~1
Even if nil autoe were equipped with properly maintained
omission control systems, some cities might still have auto
nir pollution problems due to the large number of cars
cither on the streets at the same time or concentrated in
particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways
to reduc, pollution under one or both of these conditions.
Please tc-11 me how you feel about each of these proposals.
("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
a. v',..-! n«- rationing 4.1%
b. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto.
c. Vf-ry high ($200) registration fee per auto
but only for the second, third, etc. ,
auto 8. 3
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central
busincs s districts 15.5
e. A tax on all day parking in central busi-
ness districts 12. 3
f. A tax on parking in central business dis-
tricts regardless of whether a person
parked only one hour or all day 5.
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways 3.5
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways but only when traffic
was heavy 3.5
i. Mandatory car pooling--allowing only
cars carrying at least three persons
to use freeways during rush hours 10. 3
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on major
expressways and streets 26.6
8
16.5% 11.2% 21.2% 47. 1%
0.6 3.5 9.9 86.0 A
15.4 4.7 16.6 55.0
25.3 17.2 19.5 22.4
17.5 21.1 14*6 34.5
12.7 14.5 17.3 A49.7
8.1 6.4 22.0 60.1
23.6
11.8 17.6
9.8 17.
5*8.
39. 1
17.9
8.1 16.2
- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-3
-------
4b. Which of the proposals listed above would be the most acceptable? (Give Letter:) J 37. Q%
K I 15.8%
4c. Which would be most unacceptable?
(Give Letter:) B 50.3%
A 30.4%
QUESTIONS 2-6 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELATING TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM, IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
5a. How often do the various members of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, oubway, or commuter train.)
Children
Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
1.2% 0.6% 2.7% .
0.6 0.7
2.3 1.4
4.2 7.5 2.7
85.7 87.9 39.5
8.9 1.2 53.1
Three or more times a week .
One or two times a week
Once a month
Once every three months ....
Never
No household member
D-4
-------
5b. Please rate
-------
5d. Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effectiveness which itcmH
below you feel would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the mos
effective item a "1", the next most effective "2", the next "3", etc.)
Children
Items: Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
Cleaner and newer vehicles. .68 6
Faster travel 3 4 2
Air-conditioned vehicles .... 8 6 5
More frequent service 1 1 1
Lower fares 4 3 3
Parking facilities at stops or
stations 5 5 9
Shelters against bad weather
at stops or stations 7 7 7
Better security to assure
personal safety 9 9 8
More conveniently located
stops and stations 2 2 4
Other (Specify):
Negligible response
D-6
-------
6a. How would you or other household members feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool?
("X" ONE ONLY)
Very interested 11. \oj0
Somewhat interested 29. 6
Not at all interested 35. 8
Already in car pool 6.8
Do not travel to and from
work by car 16. 7
6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets in order to
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONLY)
Extremely difficult 28. 5%
Very difficult 18. 2
Somewhat difficult 25. 5
Somewhat easy 13. 9
Very easy 6.1
Extremely easy 3. 6
Already in car pool 4.2
D-7
-------
7. One of the major causes of areas of higli pollution is traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and ntop-and-Ro traffic was reduced. Listed below are
several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
EACH IDEA)
Idea:
a. Prohibit parking, loading and unloading
on busy streets 48. 2% 41. 5% 7. 3% 3. 0%
Increase the number of one-way streets .... 25. 5 *9. 1 20. 6 4. 8
41. 5<
49. 1
c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets »
to be used during rush hours ............ 18. 2 34. 6 25. 2 22. 0
d. Prohibit turns at busy intersections during
rush hours ............................ 47. 6 32. 3 12.2 7.9
e. Widen major streets ...................... 40.2 39.6 15.9 4.3
f. Widen major streets at intersections only .. 6.8 42. T 34.2 16.1
g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or
overpasses ............................ 45. .7 43.3 11.0
h. improve timing of traffic signals .......... 55.2 36.4 8. 5
i. Increase the number and frequency of . .
radio traffic reports .................... 13. 1 60. 6 25. 6 0. 6
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on express- .
ways and busy streets .................. 26.8 45.1 17.7 10.4
Your ideas (Please List):
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-8
-------
Since traffic congestion is most severe nt times when people arc going to or coming from v/ork,
one alternative for reducing congestion would he to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That in, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM, others
would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM. others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about
this idea? ("X" ONJE ONLY)
Very much in favor 27. 0%
Somewhat in favor 32. 8
Indifferent 19. 0
Somewhat opposed 11.5
Very much opposed 9. 8
Along with the air pollution problem, the country
may also be [aced with a gasoline shortage. The
following methods have been suggested as ways
to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso-
line. How do you feel about each of these pro-
posals' ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
To Me This Plan Is:
4j -*J
+
tl
11
19
15,
13
12,
2%
2
9
2
8
11.2%
0.8
26.2
a. Gasoline rationing with drivers being
allowed to purchase during a year: ^
about 90 percent of the fuel now used .22.4% 33.5%
b. about 80 percent of the fuel now used . 12.0 26. 9
c. about 2/3 of the fuel now used 4. 3 12. 8
d. An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on
the number of miles driven during a
year:
at $10 per thousand miles 5.7 15. 5
e. at $15 per thousand miles 2. 6 4. 5
f. Doubling the price of gasoline and using
the additional revenue to improve mass
transit... 2.9 6.4 8.1 15.1
-2
21.
21.
21.8%
28. 1
40.9
44.3
5^.0
.4
lOb.
A - Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW
UNDER IQa)
Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year.
(WRITE IN NUMBER OF MILES UNDER ICib BELOW)
D-9
-------
lOc. For each car, please estimate what pcrcc.nt.igc of last year's mileage \v? 3 accounted for by
driving outside your local metropolitan area. (For example, vacation, business trips,
short weekend trips, etc.) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER lOc)
lOa
lOb
lOc
Car //I
Car #2
Car //3
Car //4
Model Year
1969
1968
1966
1968
Last Year's Percentage of Mileage
Mileage Outside Local Area
11,270
9,340
8,210
7,560
29
27
27
15
10d. How many licensed drivers arc there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers; 2. 08 Average
lOc. If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the
cars you own?
Yes 8.7%
Maybe 11. 0
No 80. 3
10f. How many? (WRITE IN)
1. 1
cars
Average of Yes and Maybe
lla. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER Ha BELOW)
lib. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lib BELOW)
Very serious problem
Serious problem
Slightly serious problem . . .
No problem at all
lla. City
9.8%
19. 1
44.5
26.6
lib. Nationwide
42. 3%
44.6
11.9
1.2
D-10
-------
12. If you have any views or comments regarding any questions or idea, please record
them.
Listed under individual cities
D-ll
-------
D.2 SURVEY RESULTS FOR STOCKTON
All nulos made in 1975 and thereafter will be equipped with emission control dcvi rev: (o reduce air
pollution. ]f in 1975 you owned a cnr built before th.it year, how would you feel about n l.iw n--
qxiirin:' you to put crnisr.ion control equipment which might cost $125 on your car? ("X" IM-JI.OV.')
How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by government subsidy to about $50 V
("X" 13 E LOW)
Toward Law: 1. Cost $125 2. Cost $50
Very much in favor of law. . 14. 0% 41. 7%
Somewhat in favor of law. . . 16. 0 28. 3
Somewhat against lav/ ...... 24. 0 15. 0
Very much against law ..... 46. 0 15. 0
3a. Kvc-n carr. properly equipped with emission control equipment mh'.ht still pollute I hi- air if the equip
me i it was; not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic inspection o:
the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in Somewhat in Somewhat Very much
favor of law favor of law against law against law
41.5% 30.8% 13.8% 13.8%
3b. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, \vhat would you consider a
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
$ 6.95 Average
3c. Assuminp yoxi had to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection
should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY)
At state-operated inspection centers 44.6%
At city-operated inspection centers 12. 3
At local service stations or garages 40. 0
At some other place (Specify): 3. 1
D-12
-------
4a,
To Me This Plan Is:
Evrn if nil aulos were equipped with properly maintained
omission control systems, some cities might still have auto
nir pollution problems due to the large number of cars
cither on the streets at the same time or concentrated in
particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways
to redur.i.' pollution under one or both of these conditions.
Please toll me how you feel about each of these proposals,
("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
a. ,:;. , rationing 3.2% 17.5% 12.7% 15.9%A 50. 8^0
b. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto . - - 3.1 12.5 84.4
c. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto
but only for the second, third, etc. , i
auto 9.5 12.7 1.6 20.6 55.6
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central ^
business districts 13.8 23.1 16. 9 27.7 18.5
e. A tax on all day parking in central busi- »
ness districts 12.7 12.7 23.8 19.0 31.7
f. A tax on parking in central business dis-
tricts regardless of whether a person »
parked only one hour or all day 3.1 10.9 15.6 18.8 51.6
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways *
and expressways - 6.3 7.8 23.4 62. 5
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways but only when traffic A
was heavy 3.2 8.1 12.9 17.7 58.1
i. Mandatory car pooling--allowing only
cars carrying at least three persons .
to use freeways during rush hours ..... 9.2 20. 0 15.4 16. 9 38. 5
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on major .
expressways and streets 29.7 25.0 21.9 10.9 12.5
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-13
-------
4b. Which of the proposals listed above would be the most acceptable? (Give Letter:) J 38.7%
I 17.7%
4c. Which would be most unacceptable?
(Give Letter:) B 43.8%
~A 37. 5%
QUESTIONS 5-6 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELAT^TG TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM, IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
5a. How often do the various members of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, oubway, or commuter train.)
Children
Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old]
Three or more times a week .
One or two times a week
Once a month
Once every three months ....
Never
No household member
6.8%
84.7
8.5
1.6%
4.8
9.5
84. 1
2.0%
2. 0
3.9
47. 1
45. 1
D-14
-------
5b. Please rate tv\c_h household member's reason for using public transportation. (Rate the most
important reason "1", the next most important "2", the next "3", etc. If a household member
never uses public transportation, "X" the "never use" box at the bottom of the list.)
5c. Please rate each household member's reasons for traveling by auto. Follow the same procedure
as in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER £>£)
Reasons
a. Cheaper
b. Faster .
5b. Public Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Husband Wife Years Old)
c. More comfortable . .
d. Safer for passenger.
e. Less congested
f. More available
g. More flexible (I can
come and go as
I please)
Sample of Public Transporta-
tion users too small to be
meaningful
h. More relaxing (able
to read while
traveling)
i. Need car during the
day.
j. I do not have a
driver's license..
k. Car is not available
when I need it. . . .
1. Other (Specify):
5c. Auto Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Husband Wife Years Old)
8
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Only means of transportation
m. Never use ("X" Box) 50/54 53/63
24/28
2/54 3/63
5/28
D-15
-------
5d. Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effectiveness which items
below you frcl would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the most
effective Horn a "1", the next most effective "2", the next "3", etc.)
Items;
Cleaner ar
Faster travel
Air- conditio
More freque
Lower fares
Parking facilities at stops or
stations
Shelters against bad weather
at stops or stations
Husband
Children
Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
icwer vehicles. .
ed vehicles ....
tservice
6
4
9
1
3
8
4
9
1
3
8
3
9
1
2
Better security to assure
personal safety
More conveniently located
stops and stations
Other (Specify):
Negligible
D-16
-------
6a. How would you or other household members feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool?
("X" ONE ONLY)
Very interested H- 9%
Somewhat interested 35. 6
Not at all interested 32. 2
Already in car pool 5. 1
Do not travel to and from
work by car ^^* *
6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets in order to
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONLY)
Extremely difficult 27. 1%
Very difficult 18. 6
Somewhat difficult 23. 7
Somewhat easy 20. 3
Very easy 6. 8
Extremely easy
Already in car pool 3.4
D-17
-------
7. One of the major causes of areas of high pollution is traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and alop-and-go traffic was reduced. Listed below are
several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
EACH IDEA)
Idea:
+2 4-1 0 0 -I
a. Prohibit parking, loading a~nd unloading .
on busy streets 56.7%. 36.7% 3.3% 3.3%
b. Increase the number of one-way streets .... 28. 3 58. 3 11.7 1.7
c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets i
to be used during rush hours 18. 5 29. o 33. 3 18. 5
d. Prohibit turns at busy intersections during
rush hours 56.1 31.6 8.8 3.5
c. \Videnmajorstrcets 37.9 41.4 19.0 1.7
f. Widen major streets at intersections only .. 8.9 39.3 28.6 23.2
g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or .
overpasses 47.4* 45. 6 7. 0
h. improve timing of traffic signals 56. 1 35. 1 8. 8
i. Increase the number and frequency of .
radio traffic reports 12.5 57.1 30.4
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on express- .
ways and busy streets 22. 0 44. 1 20. 3 13. 6
Your ideas (Please List):
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-18
-------
Since traffic congestion is most severe at limes when people arc going to or coming from v/ork,
one alternative for reducing congestion would he to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM, others
would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM. others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about
this idea? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in favor 17. 2%
Somewhat in favor. 35. 9
Indifferent 28. 1
Somewhat opposed 12. 5
Very much opposed 6.3
Along with the air pollution problem, the country
may also be faced with a gasoline shortage. The
following methods have been suggested as ways
to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso-
line. How do you feel about each of these pro-
posals' ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
To Me This Plan Is:
,
(4
>
1
1 O V
1 i?'
> _£j 1^ «O QJ
cj n, I'S " M
C u (^ 0) rt
0 u / 0 C
eo * I o S
"
V
^_^
^s
*-t IQ
Jtai 4j
^ 0,
(U
tl
-I
a. Gasoline rationing with drivers being
allowed to purchase during a year:
about 90 percent of the fuel now used . 21. 9%
b. about 80 percent of the fuel now used . 8. 1
c. about 2/3 of the fuel now used 3. 2
d. An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on
the number of miles driven during a
year:
at $10 per thousand miles 4. 7
e. at $1 5 per thousand miles 1.8
f. Doubling the price of gasoline and using
.the additional revenue to improve mass
transit 3.2
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
6.3 12
-2
28.1% 15.6% 17.2% 17.2%
25.8 27.4 A11.3 27.4
6.5 19.4 30.6 A 40.3
15.6 17.2 25.0 37.5
5.4 16.1 26.8 ^0.0
.7 12.7 65.
10a Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW
UNDER IQa)
lOb. Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year.
(WRITE IN NUMBER OF MILES UNDER lOb BELOW)
D-19
-------
lOc. For each car, plc.isc estimate what percentage of last year's mileage w?3 accounted for by
driving outride your local metropoliUin area. (For example, vacation, buoineso trips,
ohorl weekend trips, etc.) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER lOc)
lOa
10b
lOc
Last Year's Percentage of Mileage
Model Year Mileage Outside Local Area
Car //I
Car n
Car #3
Car //4
1969
1968
1965
11,890
9,780
9, 170
Only one car in sample
32
33
48
10d. How many licensed drivers arc there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers; 2- ° Average
lOc. If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the
cars you own?
Yes 3. 1%
Maybe 9. 2
No 87.7
10f. How many? (WRITE IN) 1.0
cars
Average of Yes and Maybe
lla. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X'( ONE BOX
UNDER lla BELOW)
lib. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lib BELOW)
lla. City lib. Nationwide
Very serious problem
Serious problem
Slightly serious problem . . .
No problem at all
4.6%
15.4
43. 1
36.9
36.1%
50.8
13. 1
D-20
-------
1?-. If you have any views or comments regarding any questions or idea, please record
them.
Except in large cities, other forms of pollution are a greater
problem.
Transit of little use in suburban and rural areas.
Provide more attractive public transportation.
Limit car and engine size.
Develop more efficient engines.
Trucks and "junk" cars are the -worst polluters.
Taxed too much already.
D-21
-------
D.3 SURVEY RESULTS FOR FRESNO
All ,-uilos iri.ick- in 1975 and thereafter will be equipped with emission c onlrol devir <-:; ID ru'luci- air
pollution. If in 1975 you owned a cnr built before Hint year, how would you feel about :i l.iw ''<-
quirin:; you to put emission control equipment which might cost $125 on your car? ("X" IlKLOV.- )
How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by government subsidy to about $30?
("X" BELOW)
Feeling Toward Law: 1. Cost $125 2. Cost $50
Vc7-y much in favor of Jaw. . 16.7% 34.4%
Somewhat in favor of law. . . 22. 2 37. 7
Somewhat against law ...... 14. 8 13. 1
Very much against law ..... 46. 3 14. 8
3a. Even carr- properly equipped with omission control equipmcrt mi:;ht still pollute the air if the equip
men! was not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic inspection o:'
the c-niir. yioii control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in Somewhat in Somewhat Very much
favor of law favor of law against law against law
43.1% 44.6% 9.2% 3.1%
3b. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, \\hat would you consider a
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
$ 9. 01 Average
3c. Assuming you hnd to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection
should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY)
At state-operated inspection centers 35.4%
At city-operated inspection centers 16. 9
At local service stations or garages 40. 0
At some other place (Specify): 7.7
D-22
-------
To Me This Plan Is:
4a. Even if nil autos were equipped with properly maintained
emission control systems, Bomc cities might still have auto
air pollution problems due to the large number of cars
cither on the streets at the same time or concentrated in
particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways
to reducji.- pollution under one or both of these conditions.
Please tell me how you feel about each of these proposals.
("X" ONT: ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
a. . ;. .- 1 i.. rationing
b. Very high ($ZOO) registration fee per auto.
c. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto
but only for the second, third, etc. ,
auto
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central
business districts
e. A tax on all day parking in central busi-
ness districts
f. A tax on parking in central business dis-
tricts regardless of whether a person
parked only one hour or all day
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways but only when traffic
was heavy
i. Mandatory car pooling--allowing only
cars carrying at least three persons
to use freeways during rush hours
-I
Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on major
expressways and streets 18. 2
3.1% 17.2% 14.1% 28.1% 37.5%
3. 1 7.7 89.2
7.8 20.3
13.6 22.7
9.2 18.5
4.5 12.1
6.1 12.1
3.1 12.3
7.6 27.3
7.8 14.1 50.0
21.2 A18. 2 24.2
20.0 13.8 38.5
16.7 15.2 A 51.5
A
4.5 18.2 59.1
9.2 16.9 58.5
7.6 18.
39.4
40.
16.7
6.1 18.2
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-23
-------
4b. Which of the propOBals listed above would be the most acceptable? (Give Letter;) J 2" °%
K T: 19.4%
4c. Which would be most unacceptable?
(Give Letter:) B 56.3%
~£2 1. T/o
QUESTIONS b-6 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELATTX!G TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM, IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
5a. How often do the various members of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, oubway, or commuter train.)
Three or more times a week.
One or two times a week
Once a month
Once every three months ....
Never
No household member
Husband
3. 1%
83. 1
13.8
Wife
1.5%
7.6
89.4
1.5
Children
(Over 16 Years Old)
3.4%
1.7
1.7
1.7
34.5
56.9
D-24
-------
5b, Please rate c;\ch household member's reason for using public transportation. (Rate the most
important reason "1", the next most important "2", the next "3", etc. If a household member
never uses public transportation, "X" the "never use" box at the bottom of the list.)
5c. Please rate each household member's reasons for traveling by auto. Follow the same procedure
as in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 5c)
Reasons
a. Cheaper
b. Faster .
5b. Public Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Husband Wife Years Old)
c. More comfortable . .
d. Safer for passenger.
e. Less congested
Sample of Public Transportation
f. More available users too small to be meaningful
g. More flexible (I can
come and go as
I please)
h. More relaxing (able
to read while
traveling)
i. Need car during the
day.
j. I do not have a
driver's license . .
k. Car is not available
when I need it . . . .
1. Other (Specify):
5c. Auto Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Husband Wife Years Old!
5
8
7
2
5
8
7
2
7
3
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
No public transit available
m. Never use ("X" Box)53/56 56/65 20/25
D-25
3/56
3/65
5/25
-------
Sd, Acain, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effcctivcnens which items
below you frcl would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the most
effective itom a "1", the next most effective "2", the next "3", etc.)
Items:
Cleaner and newer vehicles. .
Faster travel
Air-conditioned vehicles
More frequent service ......
Lower fares
Parking facilities at stops or
stations
Shelters against bad weather
at stops or stations
Better security to assure
personal safety
More conveniently located
stops and stations
Other (Specify):
Children
Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
3 4
7 5
1 1
4 3
1
5
2
3
Negligible
D-26
-------
6a. How would you or other household members feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool?
("X" ONE ONLY)
Very interested 8. 1%
Somewhat interested 32. 3
Not at all interested 45. 2
Already in car pool 3. 2
Do not travel to and from
work by car 11.3
6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets in order to
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONL/Y)
Extremely difficult 26« 6%
Very difficult 20- 3
Somewhat difficult 35« 9
Somewhat easy 7.8
Very easy "* ?
Extremely easy 4. 7
Already in car pool
D-27
-------
7. One of the major causes of areas of high pollution is traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and alop-and-po traffic was reduced. Listed below are
several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
EACH IDEA)
Idea:
+2
a. Prohibit parking, loading a~nd unloading
on busy streets 44.
b. Increase the number of one-way streets .... 20.
c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets i
to be vised during rush hours 17.5 34. 9 22. 2 25.4
d. Prohibit turns at busy intersections during A
rush hours 33.8 32.3 18.5 15.4
e. Widen major streets 46. T 39..1 10.9 3.1
f. Widen major streets at intersections only .. 7.9 47. o 33.3 11.1
g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or .
overpasses 43. L 46.2 10.8
h. improve timing of traffic signals . 66. 2 29. 2 4. 6
i. Increase the number and frequency of t
radio traffic reports 17. 7 58. 1 22.6 1.6
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on express- ^
ways and busy streets 24. 2 50. 0 17. 7 8. 6
Your ideas (Please List):
Install left turn signals
Provide cheaper parking in downtown
. Develop bike paths
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-28
-------
Since traffic congestion is most severe at times when people arc going to or coming from v/ork,
one alternative for reducing congestion would be to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM, others
would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM, others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about
this idea? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in favor 34. 8%
Somewhat in favor 33. 3
Indifferent 12. 1
Somewhat opposed 10. 6
Very much opposed 9. 1
Along with the air pollution problem, the country
may also be faced with a gasoline shortage. The
followint; methods have been suggested as ways
to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso-
line. How do you feel about each of these pro-
posals' ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
To Me This Plan Is:
o
I-S
O
u
to
>
omewhat
cceptable
w «$
^
o v
Neither"""
ceptable N
f^f^ceptabl
u ID
V
Somewhat
nacceptabl
3
u
JO
fl
a
o
o
a
c
**
>
+
tl
a. Gasoline rationing with drivers being
allowed to purchase during a year:
about 90 percent of the fuel now used . 17.
b. about 80 percent of the fuel now used . 20.
c. about 2/3 of the fuel now used 1.7
d. An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on
the number of miles driven during a
year:
at $10 per thousand miles 7
e. at $15 per thousand miles 1
f. Doubling the price of gasoline and using
the additional revenue to improve mass
transit 3. 0
k- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
2%
3
7
6
7
0
45.
25.
20.
21.
6.
4.
3%
0
0
2
8
5
9.4%
15A
15.0
9.
13.
3.
1
6
0
7.
12.
25.
24.
20.
21.
8%
0*
3
2
20.
26.
38.
3.
68.
3%
6
3
9
6
4
-2
10a Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW
UNDER jj3a)
lOb. Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year.
(WRITE IN NUMBER OF MILES UNDER lOb BELOW)
D-29
-------
lOc. For each car, please estimate what percentage of last year's mileage v/?s accounted for by
driving outride your local rnctropolitan area. (For example, vacation, busineso trips,
short weekend trips, etc.) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 10c)
Car //I
Car //2
Car #3
Car //4
lOa
1969
1969
1965
lOb
10c
Last Year's Percentage of Mileage
Model Year Mileage Outside Local Area
10, 150
9,790
4, 890
Sample too small
23
22
10
10d. How many licensed drivers arc there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers: 2.06 Average
10e. If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the
cars you own?
Yes 15.4%
Maybe 9. 2
No 75.4
10f. How many? (WRITE IN) 1.20 cars
Average of Yes and Maybe
lla. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lla BELOW)
lib. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lib BELOW)
Serious problem
Slightly serious
No problem at all
lla. City lib. Nationwide
bl.em
r obi em . . .
15.4%
26.2
50. 8
7.7
44.4%
44.4
11. 1
D-30
-------
1Z. If you have any views or comments regarding any questions or idea, please record
them.
Provide better public transportation
Enforce current auto and factory emission control laws
Increase taxes on trucks and busesmajor polluters
Develop electric buses and cars
Encourage use of smaller cars
D-31
-------
1. All nulos made in 1975 and thereafter will be equipped with emission coiUrol dcvirrs !o reduce air
pollution. If in 1975 you owned a cnr built before that year, how would you feel about a !;iw rr-
g\ii rin:; you to put emission control equipment which might cost $125 on your car? ("X" ]J!-JLOVtM
2. How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by government subsidy to ;ibout $50?
("X" BELOW)
FoHinp Toward Law: 1. Cost SI 25 2. Cost $50
Very much in favor of law. . 14.6% 45. 2%
Somewhat in favor of law. . . 14.6 16. 7
Somewhat against law 22. 0 7. 1
Very much against law 48.8 31.0
3a. Even carr properly equipped with emission control equipment mi;;ht still pollute the air if the equip-
ment was not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic inspection o:'
the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? {"X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in Somewhat in Somewhat Very much
favor of law favor of law against law against law
45.5% 27.3% 9.1% 18.2%
3b. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, what would you consider a
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
$ 6.82 Average
3c. Assuming yoxi hnd to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection
should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY)
At state-operated inspection centers 39.5*
At city-op era ted inspection centers 11.6
At local service stations or garages 46.5
At some other place (Specify): 2.3
'0
D-32
-------
To Me This Plan Is:
Kvcn if all aulos were equipped with properly maintained
emission control systems, some cities might atlll have auto
nir pollution problems due to the large number of cars
cither on tlic streets at the same time or concentrated in
particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways
to reduce pollution under one or both of these conditions.
Please toll me how you feel about each of these proposals.
("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
a. ,;.->. ! r, rationing 7. 0%
b. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto.
c. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto
but only for the second, third, etc. ,
auto 7. 1
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central
business districts 20. 9
e. A tax on all day parking in central busi-
ness districts 16. 3
f. A tax on parking in central business dis-
tricts regardless of whether a person
parked only one hour or all day 11.6
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways 4.7
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways but only when traffic
was heavy 4. 7
i. Mandatory car pooling--allowing only
cars carrying at least three persons
to use freeways during rush hours 16. 3
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on major
expressways and streets 34. 9
14.0% 4.7% 18.6% 55.8%
2.3
11.9
32.6
23.3
16. 3
4.7
23.3
25.6
4.7
9.3 83.7'
4.8 14
.3 61.
11.6 9.3 25.6
18.6 A9.3 32.6
9.3 18.6 44.2
7.0 25.6 58.1
4.7 14.0 18.6 58.1
t.7 16.
3 39.5
14.0
7*0
18.6
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-33
-------
4b. Which of the proposals listed above would be the most acceptable? (Give Letter:) J 46.3%
I 12.2%
4c. Which would be most unacceptable?
(Give Letter:) B 51.2%
A 32.6%
QUESTIONS 5-6 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELATTATG TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM, IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
5a. How often do the various members of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, subway, or commuter train.)
Children
Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
4.5% 2.3% 2.6%
Three or more times a week.
One or two times a week
Once a month
Once every three months ....
Never
No household member
2.3 4.5 2.6
90.9 90.9 36.8
2.3 2.3 57.9
D-34
-------
5b. Please rate cnch household member's reason for using public transportation. (Rate the most
important reason "1", the next most important "2", the next "3", etc. If a household member
never uses pxiblic transportation, "X" the "never use" box at the bottom of the list.)
5c. Please rate each household member's reasons for traveling by auto. Follow the same procedure
as in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 5c_)
Reasons
a. Cheaper
5b. Public Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Husband Wife Years Old)
b. Faster
c. More comfortable . .
d. Safer for passenger.
e. Less congested
f. More available
g. More flexible (I can
come and go as
I please)
Sample of Public Transporta-
tion users too small to be
meaningful
h. More relaxing (able
to read v/hile
traveling)
i. Need car during the
day.
j. I do not have a
driver's license . .
k. Car is not available
when I need it . . . .
1. Other (Specify):
5c. Auto Transportation
Children*
(Over 16
Husband Wife Years Oldl
4
8
7
1
5
8
7
1
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Response Negligible
m. Never use ("X" Box) 39/43 39/43 13/16
^-Sample of children too small to be meaningful
2/43 1/43
2/16
D-35
-------
5d. Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effectiveness which items
below you feel would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the most
effective itrin a "1", the next most effective "E", the next "3", etc.) .
Items:
Cleaner ai
Faster travel
Air- conditio
More freque
Lower fares
Parking facilities at stops or
stations
Shelters against bad weather
at stops or stations
Husband
Children
Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
icwer vehicles. . 7
3
ied vehicles ....
1
tt service
4
7
4
6
1
3
6
3
Z
1
4
Better security to assure
personal safety
More conveniently located
stops and stations
Other (Specify):
Negligible
D-36
-------
6a. How would you or other household members feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool?
("X" ONE ONLY)
Very interested 14. 6%
Somewhat interested 17. 1
Not at all interested 26. 8
Already in car pool 14. 6
Do not travel to and from
work by car 26. 8
6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets in order to
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONLY)
Extremely difficult 33. 3%
Very difficult 14. 3
Somewhat difficult 11.9
Somewhat easy 14. 3
Very easy 7. 1
Extremely easy 7. 1
Already in car pool 11. 9
D-37
-------
7. One of the major causes of areaa of high pollution is traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and stop-and-go traffic was reduced. Listed below are
several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
EACH IDEA) ! .
Idea:
+2
a. Prohibit parking, loading aTid unloading A
on busy streets 41.5% 36.6% 17.1% 4.9%
b. Increase the number of one-way streets .... 28.6 M?. 6 19. 0 4.8
c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets .
to be used during rush hours 19.0 40/5 19.0 21.4
d. Prohibit turns- af'busy intersections during .
rush hours; . .;;.:;;:; 57.1 33.3 7.1 2.4
e. Widen major: strdets 33.3 ^8.1 19.0 9.5
f. Widen major streets at intersections only .. 2.4 40.5 42.9 14.3
g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or
overpasses 47. 6 35. 7 16. 7
h. improve timing of traffic signals '... 37.2* 48.8 14.0
i. Increase the number and frequency of A
radio traffic reports 7. 1 69. 0 23. 8
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on express- 4
ways and busy streets 37. 2 39. 5 14. 0 9. 3
Your ideas (Please List):
Install left turn lanes and left turn signals
Prohibit traffic in downtown
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
D-38
-------
Since traffic congestion is most severe at times when people arc going to or coming from v/ork,
one alternative for reducing congestion would be to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM, others
would v/ork from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM. others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about
this idea? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in favor 29. 5%
Somewhat in favor 27. 3
Indifferent 15. 9
Somewhat opposed 11. 4
Very much opposed 15. 9
Alone with the air pollution problem, the country
may also be faced with a gasoline shortage. The
following methods have been suggested as ways
to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso-
line. How do you feel about each of these pro-
posals' ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
To Me This Plan Is:
4
O
r~4
: Very Acceptab
4J 4)
J? -O
f -
J> a
C (U
C u
O u
<0 «;
^
o ,£
tj "^ tj
^ |
-2
a.
b.
d.
G *
f.
Gasoline rationing with drivers being
allowed to purchase during a year:
about 90 percent of the fuel now used
about 80 percent of the fuel now used
about 2/3 of the fuel now used
An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on
the number of miles driven during a
year:
at $10 per thousand miles
at $15 per thousand miles
Doubling the price of gasoline and using
the additional revenue to improve mass
transit
. 31.0%
. 4.9
9. 5
4.5
4.9
2.3
J
23. 8%
31.7
11.9
6.8
_
9.3
7. 1%
12.2
11. 9
13.6
7.3
9.3
7.1%
19.5
21.4 A
11.4
14.6
9.3
31. 0%
31.7
45.2
A
6J. 6
73.2*
A
69*8
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
1 Oa Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW
UNDER IQa)
lOb. Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year.
(WRITE IN NUMBER OF MILES UNDER lOb BELOW)
D-39
-------
lOc. For each car, please estimate what pcrcont.if;c! of last year's mileage w? o accounted for by
10a
Car n
Car #2
Car #3
Car //4
Model Year
1968
1966
1967
1964
tan area. (For example, vacation, business trips
IN BELOW UNDER 10c)
10b
Last Year's
Mileage
12, 110
8,210
8,940
4,830
lOc
Percentage of Mileage
Outside Local Area
35
26
26
27
lOcl. How many licensed drivers arc there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers: 2. 23 Average
10c. H better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the
cars you own?
Yes 7. 0%
Maybe 16.3
No 76.7
9f. How many? (WRITE IN) I-00 cars
Average of Yes and Maybe
lla. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lla BELOW)
lib. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lib BELOW)
Very serious problem
Serious problem
Slightly serious problem . . .
No problem at all
lla. City
9. 3%
14.0
37.2
39.5
lib. Nationwide
47.7%
36.4
11.4
4.5
D-40
-------
12. [f you have any views or comments regarding any questions or idea, please record
them.
Factories, trucks and buses cause more pollution than automobiles
Use pollution-free engines, such as used in Mazda or Honda
Provide better transit service
Tax single-occupant cars on freeways
D-41
-------
APPENDIX E
RECENT CALIFORNIA AIR POLLUTION LEGISLATION
This Appendix discusses several California air pollution bills which
are up for consideration during the current legislative session. The
status of these bills is presented as of June 14, 1973. Included here,
are the bills comprising the "nine-bill" program which is sponsored by
Assembly Speaker, Bob Moretti. Of the fourteen bills presented, it
appears that only about six of them stand any chance, of becoming law in
their present form.
E-l
-------
Assembly Constitutional Amendment 16 - Motor Vehicle Taxation and Revenues
Foran
This bill authorizes highway revenues to be used for construction
of public transit systems, control of environmental pollution caused
by motor vehicles, and payments of bonds issued for such
purposes, as well as for highway purposes, including enforcement of law
thereon and registration of motor vehicles.
Status: This bill is in the Senate Transportation Committee and will
probably die there.
Assembly Bill 266 - Inspection Maintenance: Passenger Vehicles South
Coast Air Basin
Foran
This act requires the State Air Resources Board to adopt passenger
vehicle emissions test procedures and standards for the South Coast Air
Basin, and authorizes the Department of Consumer Affairs to be responsible
for operating inspection and testing stations.
Certificates of compliance will be issued by the Department of
Consumer Affairs when a vehicle meets the adopted emissions standards
and when a standard fee, as determined by the Department, is paid. These
fees will be deposited in the Air Pollution Control Fund. Upon initial
registration or renewals thereafter, the Department of Motor Vehicles will
require a Certificate of Compliance in the South Coast Air Basin.
Motorcycle owners are exempt.
Status: This bill has been approved by the Assembly Committee on
Transportation, May 30, 1973, and sent to the Assembly Ways and Means
Committee. It will probably die in the Senate.
Assembly Bill 380 - Inspection, Maintenance in the SCAB
Deddeh
This bill requires the Department of Consumer Affairs, with the
cooperation of the State Air Resources Board, the Department of the
California Highway Patrol, and the Department of Motor Vehicles, to
plan and operate an experimental annual motor vehicle inspection,
diagnostic, and repair system, which is to be designed for the South
Coast Air Basin. It declares that an effective system of periodic :
inspection, maintenance, and consumer education will reduce the level
E-2
-------
of vehicular air pollution, noise emission levels, improve safety, and
provide motorists with objective motor vehicle maintenance information.
Status: This bill was approved by the Assembly Committee on
Transportation, May 30, 1973, and sent to the Assembly Ways and Means
Committee. It will probably be passed by both houses and be signed by
the Governor. It has been endorsed by the Administration.
Assembly Bill 1074 - Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control
Diddeh/Papan/Wood
The State Air Resources Board would be required to establish
standards for accrediting exhaust emission devices which: (1) reduce
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions from motor
vehicle exhaust to specified levels (hydrocarbons -- 350 ppm, CO -- 2 per-
cent, nitrogen oxides -- 800 ppm); and (2) achieve a reduction of
hydrocarbon, CO, and NO emissions substantially below the standards for
/\
any two pollutants set forth in specified sections of the Health and
Safety Code. If an exhaust emission device meets two out of the three
maximum levels, or if a device substantially reduces the emission of any
two of the three pollutants the State Air Resources Board may accredit
such a device, provided that the emission level of the third pollutant
is not increased above the level it was before installation of the
device.
The Board is prohibited from requiring the installation of more than
one exhaust emission device or any vehicle even if two or more devices are
accredited. After at least one device is accredited, accreditation
of a device unless it is as effective as any device previously accred-
ited is prohibited. It specifies that any subsequent accreditation
of a more effective device shall not affect the accreditation of a
previously accredited device.
Status: This bill is ready for the third reading in the Assembly
Transportation Committee and will probably be passed by the Assembly. If
it passes the Senate, the Governor will probably sign it.
Assembly Bill 1279 - Gasoline Additives
Sieroty
The State Air Resources Board would be authorized, under specified
conditions, to establish standards for composition or chemical or physical
E-3
-------
properties of motor vehicle fuel additives and to adopt regulations
thereon. It authorizes injunctive relief to be brought by the Attorney
General. It imposes various agreement conditions upon any manufacturer
of motor vehicle fuel additive found by the Board to result in significant
and beneficial reduction in emission of air pollution, and authorizes the
Board to conduct tests, or to engage independent laboratories to conduct
tests, to establish standards for motor vehicle fuel additives.
Status: This bill has been revised and approved and the Governor will
probably sign it.
Assembly Bill 2283 - Los Angeles Basinwide APCD
Moretti
This bill creates the Los Angeles Basinwide Air Pollution Control
District to encompass the area of the South Coast Air Basin. It specifies
the duties, functions, and powers of the district, and limits, with respect
to air pollution, the powers of boards of supervisors of counties included
in the district.
It authorizes the district board, by resolution, to impose upon
distributors an additional license fee of 0.1 cent per gallon of
motor vehicle fuel for the privilege of distributing motor vehicle fuel
in the district, with the net revenues transmitted to the district. The
district board would also be authorized to impose a fee on stationary
sources, as defined, of $1 per 100 tons of emission of air contaminants
therefrom. The State Air Resources Board would be authorized to exercise
the powers of the district under specified circumstances.
Status: This bill will be passed by the Assembly and killed in the Senate.
Assembly Bill 2284 - Air Pollution Violation Fine
Moretti
This act changes civil penalty for certain air pollution violations
for each day in which the violation occurs from not to exceed $500, to
$500 for a first offense, $1,000 for a second offense, $2,000 for a third
offense, $3,000 for a fourth offense, $4,000 for a fifth offense, $5,000
for a sixth offense, and $10,000 for a seventh offense and each succeeding
offense, during a 12-month period.
It makes provisions applicable to a violation of rules and regulations
of the Bay Area Air Pollution Control District and prescribed provisions
E-4
-------
regarding nonvehicular pollution control, including such provisions en-
forced by regional air pollution control districts created under the
Mulford-Carrell Air Resources Act.
Status: This bill is in the Assembly Transportation Committee. It will
be substantially modified by the Senate. The Governor will not sign it
in its present form.
Assembly Bill 2285 - Gasoline Marketing Control
Berman/Moretti
This bill prohibits any person from holding or storing any volatile
organic compound having a vapor pressure of 1.5 pounds per square inch
absolute or greater, under actual storage conditions, in any stationary
tank, reservoir, or other container of more than 250 gallons capacity,
unless such tank, reservoir, or other container is either a pressure
tank maintaining working pressures sufficient to prevent hydrocarbon
vapor or gas loss to the atmosphere or is designed and equipped with a
vapor loss control device or system, as prescribed. Pressure tanks may
be equipped with one-way automatic pressure relief valves necessary to
meet any other requirements of law.
Status: This bill will probably be killed in the Senate or be revised
beyond recognition.
Assembly Bill 2286 - Stationary Source Controls
Montoya/Moretti
This bill requires, on January 1 and July 1 of each year, every air
pollution control district to make public a list naming the person
operating, and the location of, each stationary source located within the
district emitting 25 or more tons annually, or in the case of the Bay Area
Air Pollution Control District or such districts located in the San Diego
Air Basin or the South Coast Air Basin, as designated by the State Air
Resources Board, emitting 100 or more tons annually, of specified air
contaminants and stating the amount of each such air contaminant emitted
to at least the nearest 0.1 of a ton. It appropriates an unspecified
amount to the State Controller for allocation and disbursement to local
agencies for costs incurred by them pursuant to this act.
E-5
-------
Status: This bill is in the Assembly Transportation Committee. It will
pass both houses and probably be signed by the Governor.
Assembly Bill 2287 - Listing of Top Ten Stationary Source Categories
Ingalls/Moretti
This bill requires each air pollution control district, in which the
state's ambient air quality standard for a particular air contaminant
has been exceeded during the year in the district, to release and
disseminate to the public a list naming the person operating, and the
location of, the 10 stationary sources located within the district emitting
the greatest amount of the particular air contaminant, if the source emits
25 tons or more annually of the air contaminant. The stationary sources
would be required to be listed in decreasing order of the amount of their
emissions of the air contaminant in tons per day. The list would also
include such sources listed in decreasing order of their emissions in tons
per day of hydrocarbons or reactive hydrocarbons where the state's ambient
air quality standard for oxidant is exceeded.
The bill appropriates an unspecified amount to the State Controller
for allocation and disbursement to local agencies for costs incurred by
them pursuant to this act.
Status: This bill is in the Assembly Ways and Means Committee. It will
probably pass both houses and be signed by the Governor.
Assembly Bill 2288 - Retrofit Devices
Ingalls/Moretti
Requires that the Department of Motor Vehicles, in addition to any
other requirements relating to renewal of registration, require, upon
1975 renewal of registration of every 1966-70 model year motor vehicle
subject to specified provisions of the Vehicle Code, a valid certificate
of compliance from a licensed motor vehicle pollution control device
installation and inspection station indicating that such vehicle is
properly equipped with a motor vehicle pollution control device with
which the vehicle was required; when new, to be equipped, as a condition
of first sale and registration in this state.
Status: This bill is being heard in the Assembly Transportation
Committee. The Governor will probably veto it this year, because it is
felt that the DMV will not, at this time, enforce a certificate of
compliance. _
-------
Senate Bill 479 - Exhaust Test, Tune-Up: Motor Vehicles South Coast Air
Basin
Biddle and Coombs
Every registered automotive repair dealer in the South Coast Air
Basin would be required to perform specified exhaust emission control
system and device maintenance when he does a tuneup, or any portion
thereof, on a motor"!vehiclewith such a system or device, or both.
This bill:requir,e.s'such maintenance to be performed on all motor
vehicles so. Equipped that are registered within the basin, except when
the principal garage of the vehicle is located outside of the basin, at
least once in 1974 and in 1975, under a schedule adopted by the Chief of
the Bureau of Automotive Repair, after consultation with the State Air
Resources Board and the Department of the California Highway Patrol.
Status: After first reading, this bill was sent to Senate Committee on
Government Organization. It will probably die in the Assembly.
Senate Bill 549 - Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Devices
Wedworth
This bill requires the Bureau of Automotive Repair, the Department
of the California Highway Patrol, the State Air Resources Board, and all
local law enforcement agencies to enforce specified provisions prohibiting
the installation, sales, offering for sale, or advertisement, of motor
vehicle air pollution control devices which are not certified or accredited
by the State Air Resources Board. Violation of these provisions and of
specified provisions of the Vehicle Code regarding air pollution control
devices, is a misdemeanor.
An unspecified amount is appropriated from the General Fund to the
State Controller for allocation and disbursement to local agencies for
costs incurred by them pursuant to this act.
Status: The bill is in the Senate Finance Committee. It will
probably pass both houses and be signed.
Senate Bill 675 - Fleet Vehicle Conversion or Specification Type System
Beilenson :. . -
This bill requires every 1968 to 1973, inclusive, year model fleet
vehicle, as defined, and with specified exception, registered under the
E-7
-------
Vehicle Code and operating within any one or more of the Counties of
Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, Santa Barbara, San Bernardino, and
Ventura, to be equipped with a specified fuel system or other device,
in accordance with a schedule prescribed by the State Air Resources
Board. Requires that all such vehicles comply no later than December 31,
1974. Makes provision for proof of compliance and certain exemption, and
for the issuance of a windshield sticker.
The Department of Motor Vehicles, on and after January 1, 1975,
would require, upon initial registration, transfer of ownership and
registration, and, upon renewal of registration for the 1975 calendar
year and each calendar year thereafter, of vehicles subject to such
provisions, a valid certificate of compliance from a licensed motor
vehicle pollution control device installation and inspection station
indicating that such vehicle is equipped as required.
Status: This bill was read for the first time and sent to the Senate
Committee on Government Organization. It will probably die in the Senate.
E-8
-------
APPENDIX F
PROJECTIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
Introduction
Calculations and projections of air pollution emissions depend on
data concerning motor vehicles and gasoline consumption (or VMT). An
evaluation of the available data disclosed that there were no well-
documented sources for such projections, consistent with the most recent
census data and latest population forecasts (F-6). The most recent pro-
jections of motor vehicle registrations provided by the California De-
partment of Motor Vehicles is based on pre-1970 census data and is thus
outdated (F-7). They are currently updating their old projections to re-
flect the most recent census reports (F-7);however, their results were
unavailable for use in this study. It thus became necessary to estab-
lish the necessary data base and project these critical variables. The
appendix describes the methodology used and presents the results of the
analysis.
Special Problems in Data Availability
Several problems arise in attempts to accurately forecast region
specific growth trends. Among the more critical problems in obtaining
adequate historical data compatible with and specific enough to the
region of interest. As an example, different agencies use varying defi-
nitions for compiling data on motor vehicle classes, e.g. commercial,
trucks. These categories are^frequently incompatible with those desired
for use in estimating pollutant emissions, e.g. light-duty and heavy-
duty vehicles. By necessity, therefore, projections were made using
the historical data available and then adjustments were made in the
projected data to reflect the desired categories for estimating emissions.
Gasoline consumption was projected by apportioning statewide consump-
tion figures to the regions of interest on the basis of population. Due
to the methods used to collect gasoline taxes, it is virtually impossible
to get accurate estimates of gasoline consumption by air basin. The
F-l
-------
estimates of gasoline consumption by region were not used directly in
the analysis to compute emissions; rather, they served mainly as a back-
up check on VMT estimates provided as computed by other methods.
Method of Analysis
Linear multiple-regression analysis (F-4) was used to estimate several
equations, predicting various types of motor vehicles and gasoline con-
sumption. Multiple regression techniques allow estimation of a dependent
variable based on values for several independent variables. An equation
of the following form results.
y = c + a, x, + a2x2 + . . . + apxn
where: y = dependent variable
c = a constant (represents the term aQxo)
x,,...,x = independent variables
a-, a = coefficients
In the above formula, it is assumed that all x.j,...,xn are completely
independent. In studying social phenomena, however, a high degree of
interaction between variables is usually found. For example, population,
income, overall economic activity, and many other social trends vary to-
gether, especially when viewed over a considerable time period.
Using the multiple regression analysis, thirteen years of historical
data (1960-1972) were used to generate a set of regression equations.
The historical data for each region included information on (1) population,
(2) per capita income, (3) regional economic activity, (4) consumer
price index, and (5) various motor vehicles (e.g. autos, commercial, and
motorcycles).
Population Projections (F-l, F-5)
The Population Research Unit of the California Department of Finance
provides projections of population in California by counties to the year
2000. Their projections are based on an assumed fertility of 2.45 births
per woman and a net migration of 150,000 annually into the State. This
F-2
-------
set of projections is commonly called the "D-150" set of projections, with
the "D" corresponding to the Bureau of the Census Series D projection of
growth and the "150" indicating an overall gain of 150,000 migrants annually
into the State. Due to charges that projections frequently turn out to be
self-fulfilling prophecy, the Department of Finance also has compiled an
"E-0" set of population growth projections. This series of forecasts
assume a lower fertility rate (2.11 births per woman) and a net zero growth
from in-and-out migration statewide.
In view of the implementation difficulties associated with a "no
growth" policy, it has been assumed for this analysis that the D-150 series
of projections are the most accurate. The California Air Resources Board
also uses this set of figures as the basis for their growth rates.
Per Capita Income and Regional Economic Activity (F-2)
Projections for these indices were extracted from the Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA) summaries compiled by EPA and HUD.
Consumer Price Index (F-8)
The projected price indices for the region were provided by the
Economic Research Unit of the California Department of Finance. This was
determined by "averaging" the price index projections for San Francisco,
Los Angeles, and San Diego, since price index information was not available
for other areas.
Motor Vehicle Projections (F-3, F-9)
The independent variables used to forecast motor vehicles were popula-
tion and adjusted per capita income. It has been well documented that
economic variables are very important in forecasting demand for goods and
services. In the case of motor vehicles, it has been shown elsewhere that
adjusted per capita income is indeed a good indicator of future auto
ownership. Intuitively, it is very reasonable that growth in motor vehicles
is reflected by these two variables -- population, to reflect the need for
more cars, and per capita income to reflect one's ability to buy cars.
F-3
-------
The linear multiple-regression approach for forecasting autos not only
allows economic variables to be considered, but it allows economic data
specific to the region to be considered. One would certainly expect re-
gional economic activity to be significant in an area's ability to purchase
automobiles.
In a similar fashion, commercial vehicles (trucks), motorcycles, and
regional gasoline consumption were also projected. Commercial vehicles
were projected on the basis of population and total earnings for the
region, since commercial vehicles by definition, are used primarily for
business purposes and therefore are dependent on the economic activity of
the region. (Total earnings, which is the summation of all earnings for
the majority of the major industrial and commercial activity, is an ac-
curate indicator of commercial business trends.) Motorcycles were forecast
using historical trend data for adjusted per capita personal income. Since
motorcycles have traditionally been a luxury item rather than a necessity
(except for a small minority), its population growth is dependent on in-
creased buying power. This is attested to by the fact that the majority
of motorcycles purchased are for recreational purposes rather than to
serve basic transportation needs.
Gasoline consumption was projected from the number of vehicles and
California Consumer Price Index. An increase in vehicles would imply more
consumption, just as changes in prices would be reflected in the demand
for gasoline. This is justified on the grounds that individuals are con-
scious of gasoline prices, both implicitly as they purchase autos which
give better gas mileage, and explicitly as they shop around for the lower-
priced gasoline stations.
F-4
-------
Results of the Multiple Regression Analysis for San Joaquin County
The following regression equations developed for the San Joaquin
County area are accompanied by the coefficient of multiple determination
2
(R ) and the tests of significance for each coefficient (t-score):
Automobiles
R2
t-score (population)
t-score (per capita income)
-96169.9 + 0.738 (population)
+ 4.383 (per capita income)
.9851
6.07
0.97
Motorcycles
R2 -
t-score =
-14386.4
.8964
10.24
I
income)
Commercial Vehicles =
R2 .
t-score (population) =
t-score (total earnings) =
Gasoline Consumption
R2 =
-27201.5 + 0.1087 (population)
+ 42.69 (total earnings)
.9841
0.82
2.13
-44.5 + 0.00066 (vehicles)
+ 0.755 (price index) \
.9955
t-score (vehicles) = 7.50
t-score (price index) = 7.24
The resulting projections for all significant variables are presented
in Figures F-l and F-2. The data used in the development of the re-
gression equations are listed in Table F-l.
F-5
-------
FIGURE F-l. SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY PROJECTIONS FOR
POPULATION AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES
(1960-1980)
01
I960
62
64
66
68
72
75
70
YEAR
- < Total Earninqs (S Billions)
A**. California Consumer Price Index (IQO's S 1967)
. , Ponulation (lOO.OCO's)
* Per Canita Income (inOO's S 1967)
77
80
-------
FIGURE F-2. SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY PROJECTIONS FOR
MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
(1960-1980)
SCALE I
£ B
12
11
10 18 |-
9 17 I
8 16
7 15 j.
6 14
5 13
4 12
3 11
2 10
1 9
1960
62
Scale A
A
64
66
68
70
YEAR
72
B
Heavy Duty Vehicles (10,000's)
Motorcycles (1000's)
Liaht Duty Vehicles (10,000's)
Gas Consumption (10,000,000's) gal.
75
77
80
-------
TABLE F-l. PROJECTIONS OF SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES FOR SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
00
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1980
Price
Index
88.2
89.3
90.5
91.9
93.5
95.4
97.3
100.0
104.1
109.3
114.9
119.1
123.1
137.8
144.5
154.7
Per r
Capita
Income
2706
2825
2985
3140
3300
3460
3600
3735
3806
3800
3796
3900
4050
4427
.^4690
Population
251,700
255,800
259,100
262,200
265,400
272,300
277,700
280,300
283,600
286,300
292,900
297,000
302,000
314,500
325,000
340,100
Total
Earnings Gasoline
$ Millions Million Gal .
- Historical
530
550
570
595
620
645
680
720
755
775
785
820
855
- Projected3
970
1.0.50 .
1155
-
90.6
91.7
94.2
97.7
101.6
110.0
111.1
113.9
120.1
125.5
132.1
138.6
144.6
162
173
189
Auto
Registration
101,618
103,142
109,344
111,813
114,425
121,606
123,942
123,611
129,816
134,264
135,465
139,744
145,354
155,335
164,237
176,951
Commercial
Vehicles
23,329
23,994
26,511
24,860
27,993
30,181
31,980
33,090
36,048
37,593
38,468
40,148
41,974
48,394
52,950
59,073
Motorcycles
1,074
1,133
1,466
2,554
3,013
3,584
4,291
4,706
5,379
6,021
7,182
7,891
8,203
9,475
10,893 ^}
12,844
1975, 1977, 1980 values for gasoline consumption, auto registration, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles
are calculated by regression equations.
-------
Results of the Multiple Regression Analysis for Fresno County
The following regression equations developed for the Fresno County
2
area are accompanied by the coefficient of multiple determination (R )
and the tests of significance for each coefficient (t-score):
Automobiles
R2
t-score
-241404 + 1.0511 (population)
.9100
11.06
(per capita income found not
significant for this variable)
Motorcycles
R2
t-score
-22394.7 + 8.99473 (per capita
income)
.8836
9.60
Commercial Vehicles
2
t-score (population)
t-score (total earnings)
Gasoline Consumption
R2
t-score (vehicles)
t-score (price index)
19217.0 - 0.1615 (population)
+ 97.2 (total earnings)
.9790
1.87
7.53
-49.6 + 0.0008 (vehicles)
+ 0.69118 (price index)
.9907
6.68
3.67
The resulting projections for all significant variables are presented in
Figures F-3 and F-4. The data used in the development of the regression
equations are listed in Table F-2.
F-9
-------
FIGURE F-3. FRESNO COUNTY PROJECTIONS FOR
POPULATION AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES
(1960-1980)
i
o
I960 62
64
66
68
72
75
YEAR
Total Earnings ($ Billions)
California Consumer Price Index (100's S 1967)
Population (100,000's)
Per Capita Income (1000's S 1967)
-------
FIGURE F-4. FRESNO COUNTY PROJECTIONS FOR
MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
(1960-1980)
25
24
3 14 -
13
ABC
SCALE
1960
68
72
70
YEAR
Heavy Duty Vehicles (10,000's)
Motorcycles (10,000's)
C OOC Light Duty Vehicles (10,000's)
C "" Gas Consumption (10 Mill-ions) gal.
75
77
80
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TABLE F-2. PROJECTIONS OF SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES FOR FRESNO COUNTY
Year
Price
Index
Per
Capita
Income
Population
Total
Earnings Gasoline
$ Millions Million Gal
Auto
Registration
Commercial
Vehicles
Motorcycles
- Historical -
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
_1975
1977"
"T9§0^
88.2
89.3
90.5
91.9
93.5
95.4
97.3
100.0
104.1
109.3
114.9
119.1
123.1
137.8
144.5
154.7
2440
2630
2760
2880
2990
3100
3200
3300
3387
3410
3476
3630
3810
.4252
4410
4570
368,500
375,500
381 ,900
388,500
394,400
403,900
408,800
410,400
410,400
410,500
413,900
417,700
421 ,400
432,800
___441_,400
454,100
760
790
830
860
880
920
950
985
1019
1035
1043
1070
1120
- Projected3
1278
1370
1537
132.3
134.7
139.3
144.7
151.5
156.9
164.1
166.3
174.0
180.4
187.4
194.3
201.7
216
228
246
150.047
153,653
163,339
166,177
169.428
178,065
181 ,216
181,139
188,224
192,147
195,153
202,958
212,018
213,512
ZZZ.Sbl
235,900
34,499
35,551
38,812
37,636
41,136
44,633
46,225
47,264
50,795
52,943
54,467
56,959
60,469
73,592
81,150
95,338
1,613
1,680
2,244
3,078
3,637
4,420
5,017
5,742
6,765
8,439
10,497
12,017
12,621
15,831
17,251
18,690
rv>
1975, 1977, 1980 values for gasoline consumption, auto registration, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles are
calculated by regression equations.
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Results of the Multiple Regression Analysis for Kern County
The following regression equations developed for the Kern County
2
area are accompanied by the coefficient of multiple determination (R )
and the tests of significance for each coefficient (t-score):
Automobiles
R2
t-score
-210012.8 + 1.108 (population)
- .9768
22.48
(per capita income found not
significant for this variable)
Motorcycles
R2
t-score
-40174.5 + 15.654 (per capita income)
.8603
8.65
Commercial Vehicles
R2
t-score (population)
t-score (total earnings)
-78149.0 + 0.2566 (population)
+ 44.0 (total earnings)
.9640
1.58
2.24
Gasoline Consumption
R2
.t-score (vehicles)
t-score (price index)
-38.2 + 0.00068 (vehicles)
+0.709 (price index)
.9968
10.08
8.18
The resulting projections.for all significant variables are presented in
Figures F-5 and F-6. The data used in the development of the regression
eauations are listed in Table F-3.
F-13
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FIGURE F-5. KERN COUNTY PROJECTIONS FOR
POPULATION AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES
(1960-1980)
I960
62
64
66
68
70
YEAR
72
75
77
80
* *
Total Earnings ($ Billions)
California Consumer Price Index (100's $
Population (100,000's)
Per Canita Income (1000's $ 1967)
-------
I
en
SCALE
ABC
19
6 18
17
3 5 16
15
2 4 14
13
1 3 12
11
in
FIGURE F-6. KERN COUNTY PROJECTIONS FOR
MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
(1960-1980)
I960
62
64
66
68
72
Scale B
A
70
YEAR
Heavy Duty Vehicles (10,000's)
Motorcycles (1000's)
Light Duty Vehicles (10,000's)
Gas Consumption (10,000,000's) qal.
75
77
80
-------
TABLE F-3. PROJECTIONS OF SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES FOR KERN COUNTY
Year
Price
Index
Per
Capita
Income
Population
Total
Earnings
$ Millions
Gasoline
Million Gal .
Auto
Registration
Commercial
Vehicles
Motorcycles
- Historical -
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1977
1980
88.2
89.3
90.5
91.9
93.5
95.5
97.3
100.0
104.1
109.3
114.9
119.1
123.1
137.8
144.5
154.7
2575
2670
2770
2860
2975
3070
3155
3235
3280
3235
3183
3315
3520
4082
4260
4486
294,900
300,000
301 ,700
306,400
313,400
319,700
321 ,400
322,000
323,700
327,200
330,000
334,000
338,000
347,100
355,000
366,800
643
665
700
725
755
790
825
855
905
900
881
940
1005
- Projected
1119
1265
1359
106.0
107.6
109.6
114.0
120.3
124.4
129.2
130.3
137.5
143.8
149.3
155.6
161.3
a
178
189-
205
119,232
120,487
126,233
130,548
135,442
141,224
143,799
142,695
149,952
153,835
156,869
160,486
166,850
174,504
182,276
196,329
27,152
28,493
31,214
30,111
34,419
37,442
39,652
40,835
44,816
46,929
48,169
49,639
51,591
60,165
68,618
75,784
1668
1843
2336
3364
5214
7170
8102
8901
9680
11,290
13,343
14,228
14,304
23,725
26,512
30,032
1975, 1977, 1980 values for gasoline consumption, auto registration, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles are
calculated by regression equations.
-------
REFERENCES
F-l. California Department of Finance, California Statistical Abstract,
Part B, "Population," pg. 7, 1972.
F-2. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency and U. S. Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Population and Economic Activity in the
United States and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, July 1972.
F-3. State of California, Department of Motor Vehicles.
F-4.. University of California, Los Angeles, Biomedical Computer Programs.
F-5. State of California, Department of Finance, Population Research Unit,
Provisional Projections of California Counties to 2000, Sept. 1971.
F-6. Branch, M. C. and E. Y. Leong (editors), Research Investigation --
Air Pollution and City Planning, Environmental Science and Engineering,
University of California, Los Angeles, 1972, pg. G-8.
F-7. Personal communication with Peggy St. George, Department of Motor
Vehicles, State of California,'March 1973.
F-8. Personal communication with Pauline Sweezey, Economic Research. Unit,
Department of Finance, State of California, April 30, 1973.
F-9. R. L, Polk and Company, National Vehicle Registration Service --
Passenger Cars in Operation as of July 1, 1972. Compiled from
official California State records.
F-10. Division of Accounting, Controller of the State of California. Data
based on revenues collected from the It per gallon gas tax.
F-17
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APPENDIX G
ORGANIZATIONS CONSULTED
1. Bakersfield City Engineering
2. Bakersfield City Public Works Department
3. California Air Resources Board
4. California Division of Highways, Districts 6 and 10
5. California State Department of Finance
6. California State Department of Motor Vehicles
7. Federal Aviation Agency
8. Fresno City Traffic Engineering
9. Fresno Community Council
10. Fresno County Air Pollution Control District
11. Fresno County Planning Department
12. Greater Bakersfield Transit District
13. Hughes Air West
14. Kern County Air Pollution Control District
15. Kern County Council of Governments
16. Kern County Planning Department
17. Kern County Road Commission
18. Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District
19. San Joaquin County Air Pollution Control District
20. San Joaquin County Council of Governments
21. Standard Oil Company of California
22. Stockton City Planning Department
23. Stockton City Traffic Engineering
24. United Air Lines
6-1
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Organizations Consulted (Continued)
25. United States Air Force
26. United States Environmental Protection Agency
27. United States Navy
G-2
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