-------
Redding
Sac. 10th & P St,
Chi co
Figure 2-10. Seasonal Variation in CO at Major Monitoring Stations
In Sacramento Air Basin. 1971
Source: California Air Resources Board
-38-
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20
16
Q.
Q.
5-
-C
12
ID
vJuJy
I
12
Noon
12
Midnight
Figure 2-11. Diurnal Oxidant Variation (Redding Station)
on August 3, 8, 1972, and July 15, 1972
Source: California Air Resources Board
-39-
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the fact that peak oxidant concentrations do not appear basin-wide on
the same day. For example, the oxidant peak in Redding on July 15 when
Sacramento experienced its worst episode (.28 in 1970-1972) was only .06.
Similarly, when Redding experienced one of the worst episodes on
August 8, 1972 (.16 ppm), Sacramento (Creekside) experienced only a .12
measurement (3). This suggests the occurrence of local meteorological
dispersive conditions which often differ at various locations in the
Basin.
In view of the relatively high oxidant measurements recorded in
Sacramento, it seemed plausible to develop the problem definition around
a region that consists of Sacramento County and its neighboring counties.
This would restrict the problem analysis to the main geographic pollution
source,in the Basin, allowing for the possible establishment of local
controls which would affect only a portion of the Basin, rather than the
entire populus. While it is evident that the northern urban areas
(Redding and Chico) will require pollution source controls, the pollution
problem is not as severe, and will probably not require the application
of implementation control plans as severe as those likely in the more
populated Sacramento urban area. Because of the urgency to develop a
plan for attaining the Federal Air Quality Standards in each of the five
California critical Air Basins, time has become too limited to perform
an individual analysis of each of the areas troubled by poor air quality.
Instead it is more feasible to concentrate the analysis of the California
study on selected areas which may serve as representative examples for
those regions which are not specifically evaluated. To this end, the
urban counties evaluated under the San Joaquin portion of the California
study (Fresno, Kern, and San Joaquin Counties) should be representative
of the north counties of the Sacramento Basin. Consequently, the more
critical portion of the Sacramento Basin, centered around Sacramento City,
was justifiably designated for priority as the subject for study in the
problem definition. The area boundaries were defined as shown in Figure 2-1,
which corresponds almost identically to those of the region served by
the Sacramento Regional Area Planning Commission, and as such, constitutes
a convenient target for transportation controls. Ambient air data through-
out this region is not available to further justify the study area's liberally
-40-
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expansive boundary selection, but it is a reasonable assumption that
each of the counties surrounding the city of Sacramento experiences
high concentrations of oxidant, resulting both from pollution trans-
port, as well as from emissions generated by local urban centers in
close proximity to Sacramento.
2.3.2 Pollutant Emissions
The complete definition of the study problem also depends on a
quantification of pollutant emissions in the subject region. As dictated
by the study objective, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and carbon
monoxide are the principal pollutants of concern. These originate from
various mobile and stationary sources spread throughout the Sacramento
Regional Area. The most current emission inventory available to TRW
for this study was compiled by the California Air Resource Board. This
inventory provides a county by county summary of individual emission
source types and quantities, because many aspects of the inventory are
no longer current, TRW has defined the study problem to include the
requirement to develop a detailed emission inventory for all regions
of the California study. This inventory of the various emission source
categories, and their potential for controls, is developed in the
following sections.
-41-
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REFERENCES (SECTION 2)
1. "SATS Base Year Report," Volume II, Home Interview Survey 1969,
State of California, Division of Highways, District 3, March 1971.
2. "SATS 1980 Progress Report," Preliminary Draft, California
Division of Highways, March 1972.
3. California Air Quality Data, Vol. II-IV, California Air Resources
Board.
4. "Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis of Air Pollution and
Meteorological Data from Sacramento Air Pollution Control District,"
G. K. Olson, Spring 1971.
-42-
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3.0 BASELINE DATA
The development of a meaningful pollution control strategy requires
a thorough definition of the base conditions requiring correctional
measures. The "baseline data" describing these conditions is developed
in the following sections. Section 3.1 discusses the selection of air
quality conditions for which correctional pollution control measures must
be developed. The year in which these conditions occur is termed the
"base year". Section 3.1 also provides as assessment of the degree of
pollution control required to reduce atmospheric pollution to acceptable
levels. Section 3.2 develops the baseline emission inventory for the
base year, and the projected baseline emission inventory (according to
scheduled pollution control programs and anticipated growth factors)
through 1980. Section 3.3. describes the transportation base for
the Sacramento Regional Area.
3.1 BASE YEAR SELECTION AND ROLLBACK REQUIREMENT
One of the prerequisites for the development of a regional pollution
control strategy is a quantification of the degree of control which is
required to reduce atmospheric pollution to an acceptable level. The
assessment of this degree of control, expressed as percentage of emission
rollback, depends on the determination of complex relationships between
regional emissions and resultant environmental air quality. In the case
of the California Study, the Environmental Protection Agency District
Office has provided guidelines for the computation of the emission rollbacks
required. These calculations depend on the determination of the historical
regional oxidant peak, and the simplified assertion that atmospheric
reactive hydrocarbon emissions contribute proportionately to the oxidant
peak level.
3.1.1 Base Year Selection
The development of an adequate pollution control plan presumes a
sufficient reduction of source emissions to insure clean air (according
to the Federal standards) during the heaviest source loading conditions
and the most adverse meterological circumstances. To assure this goal,
it is necessary to design around the most difficult set of conditions,
-43-
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or, the year in which the most severe violation of Federal air quality
standards occurred. This is referred to as the "base year." Based on '
guidelines provided by the Environmental Protection Agency, the base year
was selected from the range of 1970 to 1972.
During the time period from 1970 to 1972, air pollution levels have
exceeded Federal air quality standards on numerous occasions (see Section
2.3.1), and in a consistent seasonal pattern. Figure 3-1 demonstrates the
year-by-year seasonal variation of peak hourly oxidant concentrations in
The Sacramento Regional Area during the past three calendar years. It can
be seen from the data that the air pollution problem in Sacramento has not
^^*~ " ' '*•—*^_
improved./The single maximum.hourly oxidant measurement during the period
of evaluation occurred on_ Ju,l.y.J.5,J_9J2>, at the Creekside Monitoring":
Station. The peak hourly level recorded was .28 ppm (1). Xhus,based_pn
a criteria of exceeding the oxidant standard, the base year was selected
"to be 1972. -^^~C_.'.-"--- " "' "
t
Figure 3-2 illustrates the year-by-year seasonal variation of peak
hourly CO concentrations during the 1970-1972 calendar years. The values
shown on the plot represent monthly averages of the maximum hourly, daily
averages. The levels for the latter part of 1972 appear low due to an
unusually high frequency of rainstorms which occurred in the basin, in
place of the usual low-mixing heights and stable atmospheric conditions
most common at this time of year.
The worst episodes for CO in the Basin occurred in November of 1971.
The highest 8-hour average during this time was recorded as 34 ppm, on
November 3 (1). Thus based on a criteria of exceeding the CO standard, the
base year would be selected as 1971.
It should be noted that the selection of the base year must be based
on limited air quality monitoring, inasmuch as a maximum of 3 stations
were recording oxidant during the period and in the region of interest,
and no more than 2 were ever used to measure CO. A comparison of monitoring
data from these stations indicates substantial station-to-station differences
may occur for measurement of oxidant and CO concentrations, even though
each of the stations is located in the urban Sacramento City area. Figure
3-3 illustrates the station-to-st.ation comparison for CO concentration
-44-
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,15
en
O)
0)
to
>, .10
C E
(O
X) <+-
•i- O
X
O
£
(U
>
to
.05
1970
1971
1972
Month
10
12
Figure 3-1. Yearly Variation in Oxidant
at Sacramento Creekside Station
Source: California Air Resources Board
-45-
-------
Q.
Q.
O)
c cr>
O (O
-l_> O)
(O >
S- (O
••->
C >»
0) i—
O S-
C 3
O O
2.0
16
12
1970 13 & "J" St.
1971 13 & "J" St.
1972 1025 "P" St.
2 AM
4 AM
12 NOON
4 PM
8 PM
12
Figure 3-2. Yearly Variation in CO at
Sacramento 1025 P St. Station, and 13th & J St. Station
Note: After 1971 the 1025 "P" Street Station replaced the daily
monitoring service provided previously by the 13 & J Street
Station.
-46-
-------
50
40
i.
Q.
O)
C CD
O rC
•r- S-
4J O)
re >
S- iTJ
+->
C >,
0) r—
O S-
C 3
O O
o ,c
30
20
10
13th & J
j
j_
4AM
SAM
12
Noon
4PM
8PM
12
Midnight
Figure 3-3. Diurnal CO Variation at Two Separate Stations
In Sacramento Urban Area (13th & J and 10th & P)
on November 3, 1971.
Source: California Air Resources Board
-47-
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30
25
20
Q.
CL
c
o
to O)
i- CT!
+-> 03
c s_
CD (1)
O >
C ,
C 3
re o
X
o
15
10
CREEKSIDE
4 AM
8AM 12 NOON 4PM
PM
12
Figure 3-4. Diurnal Variation of Oxidant at Two Separate
Stations in Sacramento Urban Area, July 15, 1972 (Base Day)
Source: California Air Resources Board
-48-
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during the November 3rd (1971) peak episode. The same experience is gained
by plotting oxidant measurements (Figure 3-4) made at the two Sacramento
City stations during the peak July 15 (1972) episode. The data shows that
concentration levels are not uniform across even a small zone. Further
data shows that the relative peak does not always occur at the same station.
These variations are due to non-uniform emission densities and/or micro-
meteorology and microtopography. Because of the constraints of the study,
it was necessary to assume that the worst air quality in the Sacramento
Regional Area could be represented by the stations recording the maximum
pollution level. The fact that different air quality sensors showed that
air pollution differs substantially from zone to zone underlines the limi-
tations inherent in the selection of the base year and base year concen-
tration hourly peak. While both CO and oxidant maximum concentrations
have been in excess of the air quality standards to the same degree, the
analysis of the study emphasizes control of oxidant level by addressing
itself to 1972 as the base year selection. The selection was based largely
on the fact that oxidant concentrations in excess of the federal air
quality standards are far more frequent, and more severe, than the CO
violations (see Section 2.3.1). During the 1970-1972 period the oxidant
standard was exceeded at the rate of 10 times per each violation of the
CO standard. During the same period, only four of the CO measurements
have been recorded at severities comparable to levels of oxidant which
occur frequently.
3.1.2 Emission Rollback Requirements
The assessment of the degree of pollution control required to re-
duce atmospheric pollution to an acceptable level is determined using the
conventional proportional rollback method. The application and limitations
of the proportional rollback method have been well documented and reviewed
(2) and need not be discussed further here. In this approach, it is
assumed that there is a linear relationship between atmospheric oxidant
concentration and the total quantity of high reactivity hydrocarbons
emitted in the region. Hence the degree of reactive hydrocarbon emission
control, expressed as percent rollback of emissions in the base year (1972),
to maintain oxidant levels within Federal Air Quality Standards, is 71%.
-49-
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3.2 BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY
Table 3-1 presents the baseline emission inventory for the
Sacramento Regional Area. Average tons per day emissions are given
for total hydrocarbons (THC), reactive hydrocarbons (RHC), nitrogen
oxides (NO ), and carbon monoxide (CO). Subdivisions are made
/\
according to source class, (stationary, aircraft, and motor vehicle),
and within source class according to specific source type.
The baseline consists of the base year, (1972), and projections
through 1975, 1977, and 1980 for a "nominal control strategy." An
unambiguous definition of "nominal control strategy" is not readily
apparent; control regulations are in a state of rapid flux. The
decision as to what controls enter the baseline inventory is thus
somewhat arbitrary. The important point in constructing the baseline
is to carefully delineate the assumed, nominal controls. In the present
study, the baseline case assumes the following control strategy:
a. For stationary sources, the baseline control is the
degree of control existing in the base year, (1972).
b. For aircraft, the baseline is the present Federal
control program, (burner-can retrofit and emission
standards for future new engines).
c. For heavy duty motor vehicles and diesels, the baseline
consists of the present Federal control program.
Motorcycles have no controls. For light duty vehicles,
the present California/Federal new car controls and the
present California ARB retrofit program, (exhaust
devices for 1966-70 vehicles), are assumed.
Figure 3-5 emphasizes the relative significance of the two or three
major sources of air pollution in the Sacramento Area. For each pollutant,
motor vehicles (light duty, heavy duty, diesels, and motorcycles) were the
major contributors in 1972. Other significant sources of RHC were petroleum
marketing, organic solvent use, and aircraft. Fuel combustion in the
residential-commercial sector is also a significant contributor of NO 4
/\
-50-
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TABLE 3-1. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1972, 1975, 1977 AND 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degress Ing
Other
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral,
Metallurgical , and
Pet Production
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1972
THC
23.0
9.6
3.4
7.0
11.0
18.0
3.6
4.0
1.8
5.4
86.8
13.6
80.7
5.0
2.0
3.7
191.8
RHC
21.0
1.9
0.7
1.4
2.2
2.2
0.3
0.4
-
0.7
30.8
12.2
66.7
4.1
2.0
3.3
119.1
NOX
1.6
-
-
-
-
1.2
1.3
0.2
12.0
0.5
16.7
3.2
80.9
4.2
20.0
-
125.0
CO
-
-
-
-
-
29
20
6
9
1
65
65
506
29
12
14
691
1975
THC
28.0
10.1
3.6
8.5
12.0
19.0
4.0
4.4
1.9
7.0
98.5
9.7
55.9
5.2
2.3
5.3
176.9
RHC
26.0
2.0
0.7
1.7
2.4
2.3
0.3
0.4
-
0.9
36.7
8.7
46.0
4.3
2.3
4.:8
102.8
NOX
2.0
-
-
-
-
1.3
1.5
0.2
13.0
0.7
18.7
3.3
66.1
4.6
23.0
-
115.7
CO
-
-
-
-
-
30
21
7
9
2
69
62
345
34
14
20
544
1977
THC
31.0
10.8
3.8
9-7
12.0
20.0
4.3
4.6
2.0
8.3
108.5
9.7
41.2
4.9
2.1
6.6
173.0
RHC
29.0
2.2
0.8
1.9
2.4
2.4
0.4
0.5
-
i.o
40.6
8.7
33.4
4.0
2.1
5.9
94.7
NOX
2.2
-
-
-
-
1.4
1.6
0.2
14.0
0.8
20.2
3.3
51.4
4.5
21.0
-
100.4
CO
-
-
-
-
-
32
23
7
.10
2
74
62
251
35
12
24
458
1980
THC
35.0
11.6
4.1
11.6
13.0
22.0
4.7
5.0
2.1
10.0
119.1
9.7
25.3
4.5
2.0
.8.2
168.8
RHC
33.0
2.3
0.8
2.3
2.6
2.6
0.4
0.5
-
1.3
45.8
8.7
19.9
3.7
2.0
7.4.
87.5
NOX
2.5
-
-
-
-
1.5
1.8
0.3
15.0
1.0
22.1
3.5
33.9
4.2
20.0
-
83.7
CO
-
-
-
-
-
34
25
3
10
2
79
63
143
38
11
31
365
I
en
-------
PETROLEUM MARKETING, 17.6 PERCENT
AIRCRAFT, 10.2 PERCENT
ORGANIC SOLVENT USERS, 5.9 PERCENT
OTHER, 3 PERCENT
MOTOR VEHICLES, 63.9 PERCENT
REACTIVE HYDROCARBONS
119 TONS/DAY
AIRCRAFT, 9.4 PERCENT
OTHER, 9.4 PERCENT
MOTOR VEHICLES, 81.3 PERCENT
MOTOR VEHICLES, 84 PERCENT
FUEL COMBUSTION, 9.5 PERCENT
OTHER, 3.9 PERCENT
AIRCRAFT
Figure 3-5. Percentage of Emissions from
Major Sources in 1972.
Sacramento Regional Area
CARBON MONOXIDE
691 TONS/DAY
NITROGEN OXIDES
125 TONS/DAY
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From Table 3-1, it is evident that light duty vehicles (DMV),
account for the largest part of motor vehicle emissions, and surface
coating and "other" constitute the most significant parts of organic
solvent emissions. Upon examination of Table 3-1 it can also be seen
that the relative importance of various sources changes considerably
in the 1970's under the assumed baseline controls. The new car and
retrofit control programs greatly reduce emissions from LDMV's. For
this decade, the present Federal control strategy essentially just
"holds the line" on aircraft, HDMV, and diesel emissions. With no
further control assumed in the baseline, stationary source emissions
continue to expand as activity in the region grows.
The specific procedures and assumptions used in constructing the
baseline inventory are presented in Section 3.2.1, 3.2.2, and 3.2.3
below. These sections deal with the stationary source, aircraft, and
motor vehicle source classes, respectively. They present the results
of baseline emissions determination, and a discussion of the limitations
and assumptions included in the emissions inventory development.
3.2.1 Stationary Sources
3.2.1.1 Baseline Stationary Source Inventory
The baseyear, Sacramento Regional Area, stationary source inventory
for THC, NO , and CO is derived from the 1970 California ARB inventory
/\
for stationary sources in each of the six counties comprising the area (3).
Projections have been made for each source from 1970 to the base year,
1972. The projection techniques will be discussed below. Modifications
in agricultural and lumber burning emissions were made to reflect the
effect of burn-no burn regulations, (assumed 90 percent effective on days
when air quality standards can be violated).
Table 3-2 presents the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions used in
the stationary source inventory. For each stationary source except
petroleum marketing, 1970 ARB assumptions on hydrocarbon reactivity are
used. These, in turn, are based on L.A. County APCD reactivity figures.
According to recent EPA specifications (4), petroleum marketing emissions
were taken as 93 percent reactive, (whereas the ARB uses a 45 percent
reactivity). Hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions are very critical to
-53-
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oxidant control strategies. Unfortunately, they are among the least
reliable values used here. The reactivity assumptions will be discussed
in more detail in the next section, dealing with limitations of the
assumptions and analysis.
TABLE 3-2. REACTIVITY ASSUMPTIONS FOR STATIONARY SOURCES
Stationary Source
Reactivity
Reference
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents
-- Surface Coating
-- Dry Cleaning
-- Degreasing
— Other
Burning
-- Incineration
-- Lumber
-- Agriculture
Fuel Combustion
Other
93%
20%
20%
20%
20%
12%
8%
10%
0%
13%
EPA
1970 ARB (L.A. APCD)
To complete the baseline stationary source inventory, the 1972
inventory is projected to 1975, 1977, and 1980 under the basic assumption
that the degree of emission control existing in 1972 is preserved. The ef-
fective 1972 control levels are outlined in Table 3-3. The effects of these
TABLE 3-3 . BASELINE STATIONARY SOURCE CONTROLS
OF HC, RHC, CO, AND NO FOR THE SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
/\
Source
Control
Incineration
Lumber burning
Agricultural burning
No backyard burning. Other open
burning restrictions.
Burn-no burn regulations of certain
types of lumber burning*.
Agricultural burn-no burn regulations'1
*It is assumed that burn-no burn regulations are 90 percent
effective in limiting emissions on days when air quality standard
violations occur. All of agricultural burning and about 1/2 of
lumber burning is covered by burn-no burn rules.
-54-
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controls are as calculated by the California ARB with one exception. It
is assumed here that burn-no burn regulations are 90 percent effective in
limiting emissions on days when air quality standard violations occur,
(no allowance for this is made by the APCD or ARB).
The growth rate assumptions in the baseline inventory varied from
source to source. They are summarized in Table 3.4. For most sources
projected growth was assumed proportional to population growth. For
TABLE 3.4 . GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS FOR STATIONARY
SOURCE EMISSIONS
Source
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents
-- Surface coating
-- Dry cleaning
-- Degreasing
-- Other
Chemical Industry
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agricultural Burning
Fuel Comb. -- Res., Com.,
& Ind.
Other: Min., Food, Lumb.,
& Mett.
Growth Assumption
Growth according to projected gasoline
salesb.
Growth as population fromc
Growth as population from0
Growth as manufacturing froma
Growth as population from^
Growth as earnings froma
Growth as population from0
Growth as earnings from9
Growth as earnings from3
Growth as population from0
Growth as industry specific earnings
from9
Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Population and Economic Activity in the
United States and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area's^
July 1972.
TRW Regression Model.
Population Research Unit, Department of Finance, Provisional
Projections of California Counties to 2000, September 15, 1971.
-55-
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certain industries which are expanding at rates significantly different
from population growth rates, emissions were projected according to
expected growth in constant dollar earnings for those industries. The
choice of constant dollar earnings as a growth indicator was arbitrary.
Emissions for these industries could also have been taken as proportional
to production. However, production type projections make no allowance for
technological improvements. Constant dollar earnings grow more slowly
than production and thus have the right sign to allow for technological
process changes. A third type of assumption was used for petroleum
marketing emissions. Growth was taken as proportional to growth in
gallons sold. The technical aspects of the problem indicate that, for a
given degree of control, this should be a very realistic assumption.
3.2.1.2 Limitations of the Analysis
Since the 1970 California ARB inventory served as the foundation for
the stationary source 1972 base year emission estimates in this study, the
results presented here are subject to any limitations of that inventory.
These limitations concern the approximations inherent in emission factors,
source usage data, and source number estimates. There is insufficient
time in the TRW project to review in detail all of these approximations.
Suffice it to note that for THC, NOV, and CO emissions from stationary
A
sources, none of the ARB inventory figures deviated way out of line from
what would be expected by comparison with other regions, and no major
inconsistencies appeared.
The least reliable aspects of the base year and projected baseline
stationary source inventories are the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions.
Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely complex and difficult issue.
Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according to the percent
of the mixture that can possibly react * or alternatively, according to
some scale which assigns weights to individual compounds. This ranking
can be based on HC consumption rate, N02 formation rate, ozone levels,
or eye irritation production. The ranking depends on the time allowed
for reactions to occur as well as on ratios of the input reactants (HC
and NOJ.
A
-56-
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As was noted in Table 3-2, the present study has used the 1970
California ARB emission inventory reactivity assumptions for all
stationary sources except petroleum marketing. For petroleum marketing,
(as well as mobile sources), recent EPA reactivity results were employed.
The ARB reactivity scale is founded upon Los Angeles County APCD smog chamber
experiments. The EPA scale is based on experiments and conclusions by
Altshuller. These two scales yield very different estimates of reactivity.
For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive according to the ARB,
is 99 percent reactive according to the EPA. Evaporated gasoline, con-
sidered 45 percent reactive by the ARB, is 93 percent reactive according
to the EPA. It is a troublesome inconsistency in this study that ARB
estimates are used for all but one stationary source, (yielding an average
reactivity of less than 20 percent for these sources), while EPA assumptions
are used for petroleum marketing, (93 percent reactivity), and mobile
sources (all of high reactivity). This has been done, however, so as to
include the most recent data (EPA reactivity figures), even though
corresponding data were unavailable for most stationary sources.
An illustration of how confusing and arbitrary reactivity assumptions
can be is provided by past inconsistencies in the treatment of organic
solvent reactivity. In the 1970 ARB inventory and the original California
Implementation Plan (3), the ARB assumed a 20% reactivity for each major
class of solvent use (surface coating, dry cleaning, degreasing, and "other")
and for each county in the San Francisco, Sacramento, and San Joaquin
regional areas. This reactivity was based on L.A. County APCD estimates
for "post-rule 66" emissions. However, although San Francisco had imple-
mented such a rule by 1970, certain other counties had not. Thus,
20 percent reactivity was used whether or not a county had adopted Rule 66.
Fortunately, this may not be an extremely bad assumption. For surface
coatings, meeting Rule 66 for the Los Angeles and San Francisco regions
has meant, in practice, that it is met for other California regions,
(nearly all surface coatings supplied to these regions are the same as
supplied to Los Angeles and San Francisco ( 5). Reactivities of other
organic solvents should also be somewhat uniform throughout California.
-57-
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The projected growth assumptions made here are also subject to some
question. Certain stationary source emissions were assumed to grow as
population, others were assumed to grow as industry specific earnings,
and petroleum marketing emissions were assumed to grow as gasoline sales.
None of these is likely to be exactly right. However, petroleum
marketing is the dominant stationary source for the most significant
pollutant, (RHC), and the growth assumption (as sales) for that source
should be fairly accurate. Other growth assumptions, though less exact,
apply to less significant sources, and control strategy conclusions should
be insensitive to errors in those assumptions.
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3.2.2 Aircraft
Table 3-5 summarizes aircraft emissions in the Sacramento Regional Area
for the base year 1972 and projected emission levels for 1975, 1977, and
1980. Emissions are divided into three categories -- commercial air carriers,
non-commercial aviation, and military air base operations. Non-commercial
aviation includes general aviation, air taxi, and military operations at all
civilian airports in the area. Total emissions of hydrocarbons are shown
to decrease in 1975 and again in 1980. Emissions of CO and NO decrease in
/\
1975, but begin increasing in 1977. The 1975 decrease in hydrocarbons re-
sults primarily from an anticipated change in military air base operations.
Increasing CO and NO emissions are caused by operations growth.
/\
Reactive hydrocarbons are estimated to comprise 90% of total hydro-
carbons emitted by aircraft (both turbine-powered and piston-powered) and
are as shown in Table 3-6.
Table 3-6 Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions from
Aircraft in the Sacramento Regional Area
Year 1971 1975 1977 1980
Emissions
(tons/day) 12.20 8.75 8.75 8.73
The values in fable 3-5 were developed with the use of historical aircraft
operations data obtained from the Official Airline Guide and from Federal
Aviation Administration publications. FAA national projections were used
for estimating levels of future activity. The operations data was trans-
lated into emission estimates with the use of emission factors published by
the EPA. These data and calculations are discussed in detail in Appendix 5.
The analysis and prediction of aircraft emissions is limited in two
important areas. The first involves the projection of aircraft activity
up to ten years in the future. There are normally significant errors in
such predictions, due to unforseeable fluctuations in the economy and the
-59-
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TABLE 3-5. AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA BY OPERATIONS TYPE
Total Hydrocarbons
(Tons/Day)
Carbon Monoxide
(Tons/Day)
Nitrogen Oxide
(Tons/Day)
1972 1975 1977 1980
1972 1975 1977 1980
1972 1975 1977 1980
Commercial Air
Carrier
Non-Commercial
Aviation
0.59 0.47 0.45 0.42
.13 .23 .25 .26
Military Air
Base Operations 12.78 9.02 9.02 9.02
TOTAL EMISSIONS 13.55 9.72 9.72 9.70
1.27 1.59 1.76 1.75
5.50 6.80 7.50 7.90
57.90 53.22 53.22 53.22
64.67 61.61 62.48 62.87
0.50 0.51 0.57 0.71
.02 .03 .03 .03
2.63 2.73 2.73 2.73
3.15 3.27 3.33 3.47
a Includes general aviation, air taxi, and military operations at civilian airports.
-------
labor market. In fact, few estimates are attempted for long-term changes
in aircraft operations at military air bases, since trends in these oper-
ations are almost totally related to unpredictable circumstances.
The second limitation of the analysis involves the use of the aircraft
emission factors. These factors were derived by EPA from test data describ-
ing the emission rates of particular types of aircraft engines at thrust
settings typical of each mode of the Landing Takeoff (LTO) Cycle. In cases
where the average time-in-mode for each aircraft engine type is known for an
airport, this data can be used directly to estimate yearly emissions. Un-
fortunately, the time-in-mode is not known for any airport in this study.
Anticipating such situations, EPA assumed a particular set of times-in-mode
as typical of the worst-case condition at a large metropolitan airport and
assumed an engine type typical of each aircraft class -- Jumbo Jet, Long-
range Jet, Medium-range Jet, etc. Emission factors were then calculated as
an emission rate per LTO for each class. This approach was most reasonable
in view of poor availability of data, but several inherent weaknesses were
apparent in the analysis:
1. The worst-case time-in-mode is not truly
representative of the yearly average oper-
ation cycles at any airport.
2. The worst-case time-in-mode is not typical
of most airports in the Sacramento Regional
Area, since even Sacramento Metropolitan
Airport cannot be truly labeled a large
metropolitan airport.
3. Although the engine types chosen as typical of
particular aircraft classes may be used on the
majority of craft within the class, the actual
emission rates can vary significantly, just as
in the case of motor vehicles, both within the
engine type chosen for each class and between
this engine type and others used on similar
aircraft in the class.
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3.2.3 MOTOR VEHICLES
Motor vehicles constitute the most substantial source of air con-
taminants in the Sacramento Regional Area. As such, the development and
assessment of transportation control plans depends heavily on the ability
to quantify air pollutants arising from motor vehicle operations. Section
3.2.3.1 provides a discussion of the motor vehicle baseline emission in-
ventory, quantified for the base year and projected years, under the
applicable baseline control conditions. Section 3.2.3.2 is a discussion of
limitations and constraints inherent in the current state-of-the-art for
motor vehicle emission inventory determination.
3.2.3.1 Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light-duty
vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline-powered vehicles, heavy-duty diesel vehicles,
and motorcycles. Emissions from these vehicle types were estimated by
determining the annual mileage by model distribution of the region's ve-
hicle population, the overall mileage and average speed of vehicles in the
region, and then applying appropriate emission and reactivity factors which
are attributable to the various vehicle age classifications.
Characterization of the Sacramento Regional Area vehicle population
into the pertinent classes was accomplished by manipulation of data obtained
from the State Department of Motor Vehicles, the California Highway Patrol,
the State Air Resources Board, and the Division of Highways. Hydrocarbon,
carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides emission factors were obtained from
reference (6) and from direct communication with the Environmental Protection
Agency Region Office 9.
The quantification of reactive hydrocarbons assumes foremost importance
in the total emission inventory, and in the development of prospective
pollution control plans. It is assumed there is a one-to-one relationship
between the quantity of reactive hydrocarbon emissions and atmospheric ox-
idant concentration. The required 71% oxidant rollback being sought for
the Sacramento Regional Area is accomplished by a 71% rollback in reactive
hydrocarbon emissions. The ranking of hydrocarbon reactivity is a contro-
-62-
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versial issue, and has been the subject of several studies, which when
compared, differ widely in their resultant conclusions. In resolving the
difficulties presented in selecting reactivity factors for this study,
TRW was provided with guidelines from the Environmental Protection Agency.
The reactivity values, in terms of the emmiter type, are as follows:
gasoline evaporative emissions
(for all vehicles) .93
light-duty vehicle exhaust .77
heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
exhaust " .79
heavy-duty diesel vehicle
exhaust .99
motorcycle (2-stroke) exhaust .96
motorcycle (4-stroke) exhaust .86
The numerical calculations required for estimation of motor vehicle
emissions are carried out with the use of a computer program. The method-
ology for these calculations is discussed in Appendix A.
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates of reactive hydrocarbons
are shown in Table 3-7.
TABLE 3-7. BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE REACTIVE HYDROCARBON (RHC) EMISSIONS
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
RHC, Tons/Day
Type of Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel )
Motorcycle (2-stroke)
Motorcycle (4-stroke)
TOTAL
Percent Reduction of
Base Year MV Emissions
1972
66.7
4.1
2.0
2.3
1.0
76.1
1975
46.0
4.3
2.3
3.4
1.4
57.4
24.6
1977
33.4
4.0
2.1
4.2
1.7
45.4
40.3
1980
19.9
3.7
2.0
5.2
2.2
33.0
56.6
-63-
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Due to federal automobile standards imposed in 1975, and specific vehicle
controls required under the California Auto Emission Standards, vehicle
emissions are expected to decrease in future years. By 1975, motor vehicle
reactive hydrocarbon emissions will have decreased by 25% of that generated
in the base year, and by 1980, the expected reduction is 57%. Since
motor vehicle emissions constitute the main source of air pollution,
it appears evident that additional vehicle controls will be required
to attain the total 71% emission rollback, and the 1975 Federal Air
Quality Standards. While the enforcement of 1975 Federal vehicle
emission standards will result in substantial reductions of atmospheric
pollution, the full benefit of this control is mitigated by the growth of
the vehicle population and the associated increase in total VMT. Project-
ions for motor vehicle registrations in future years were made, utilizing
a linear multiple regression analysis, (see Appendix E). In this
mathematical procedure, vehicle registration is determined by its relation-
ship to socio-economic variables (population and per capita income) for
which future growth has already been analyzed by other reliable methods.
Projections for daily vehicle miles driven in the Sacramento Regional
Area were available from transportation studies (7). Figure 3-6 shows
the projections for light and heavy duty motor vehicles and for total
light duty and heavy duty vehicle miles traveled in the Sacramento Regional
Area. The projections, devised independently, show very similar trends.
Due to the anticipated growth rate of 36% in vehicle VMT, and 45% in
vehicles, from the base year to 1980, total vehicle emission reduction.
goals are more difficult to attain.
Another factor mitigating the control of motor vehicle emissions is
the fact that heavy duty vehicles, and particularly motorcycles, are not
controlled to the same degree as light duty vehicles. From Figure 3-7
it can be seen that there is a substantial shift in the relative contri-
bution of the various vehicle types to the degradation of air quality
in future years. For example, motorcycle emissions in 1972 constituted
4 1/2 % of all motor vehicle emissions; while by 1980, they are expected
(with present strategy control plans) to account for 21% of all motor
-64-
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I/)
O)
O)
0)
O)
O
S-
LDV VMT
LDV Reoietfations
LDV = Light Duty Vehicles
HDV = Heavy Duty Vehicles
HDV VMT
HDV Registrations
c
O)
(/) •>-»
O) • O
fO r—
*-» •!-
O E
1972
1975
1977
1980
Figure 3-6. Projected VMT and Vehicle Registrations for
Sacramento Regional Area
-65-
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80-.
70--
60-.
CO
c
O
40-.
30 ••
20 ••
10--
0
LDV
HDGV
HODV
Will Ilk MOTORCYCLES (2 Stroke)
MOTORCYCLES (4 Stroke)
1972
1975
1980
Figure 3-7. Relative Baseline Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions
for the Vehicle Types - Sacramento Regional Area
-66-
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vehicle reactive hydrocarbon emissions. The increasing prominence of
the motorcycle in the overall projected pollution problem is enhanced
further by the rapid growth rate (126% by 1980) expected for this vehicle
type (see Figure 2-4).
Figure 3-8 demonstrates the relative hydrocarbon emission control
trends expected between the various vehicle types. It can be seen that
motorcycles are the heaviest polluters per mile of travel, and that their
emissions are uncontrolled in the baseline projections. The effect of
exhaust control deterioration for older model vehicles, and traffic flow
patterns (speed adjustment factor) in the overall vehicle emission totals
is shown dramatically by comparison of the projected 1980 baseline total
hydrocarbon emissions per VMT value with the future (1976 and after)
Federal exhaust emission standards for new vehicles.
10
*" r
§'£ 6
.a \
)5d
U C3
O
HDGV
Motorcycles
1976 Fed. Emission Std.
Reactive HC*, gm/mi.
LDV
HOGV
HDDV
MOTORCYCLES
.37
3.98
1.04
7.9
HDDV
1972
1975
1977
1980
* Emission factor = exhaust emission factor plus evaporative and
crankcase emission factor.
Figure 3-8. Degree of Baseline Control for Various Vehicle Types
Sacramento Regional Area
-67-
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Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates for carbon monoxide (CO)
and nitrogen oxides (NO ) are shown in Table 3-8. The table shows that
X
baseline control plans account for reductions in CO emissions which are
nearly equal to the reductions obtained for reactive hydrocarbons.
TABLE 3-8
BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS
Type of
Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel)
Motorcycle (2 stroke)
Motorcycle (4 stroke)
TOTAL
% Reduction (Fraction
of Base Year)
1972
(Base Year)
506
29
12
3.9
9.9
560.8
1975
345
34
14
5.8
13.9
412.7
26.4
1977
251
35
12
7.1
16.8
321.9
42.60
1980
143
38
11
8.8
21.8
222.6
60.4
NO.. "EMISSIONS*
Type of
Vehicle
Light Duty
Heavy Duty (Gasoline)
Heavy Duty (Diesel)
Motorcycle (2 stroke)
Motorcycle (4 stroke)
TOTAL
% Reduction (Fraction
of Base Year)
X
1972
(Base Year)
80.9
4.2
20
.- .
•
105.1
1975
66.1
4.6
23
.- ..
' -
93.7
10.85
1977
51.4
4.5
21
- .
-
76.9
26.83
1980
33.9
4.2
20
-
58.1
44.72
If this control pattern is typical, it may be expected that ultimate
attainment of the oxidant rollback will also bring about substantial and
adequate reduction of CO ambient level. Considering the highest eight-hour
average for CO was 10 ppm in the base year, there is no difficulty
projecting attainment of the Federal CO air quality standard under the
-68-
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present controls schedule. However, it is noted that more severe CO
pollution (34 ppm, eight-hour average) occurred in 1971, and if con-
sidered in this context, attainment of the CO air quality standard in
future years may require reductions in addition to those provided in
the baseline. These additional reductions are expected to be less than
those required of reactive hydrocarbons, and they should be attained under
any program which accomplishes the needed oxidant rollback. The remaining
type of pollutant emissions concerning this study, nitrogen oxides emissions,
do not pose an air quality problem in the baseline projections.
3.2.3.2 Limitations in the Analysis
The quantification of air contaminants generated by motor
vehicles in a specific region depends substantially on the availability
of empirical data characterizing emission rates as a function of various
aspects of the regional vehicle population and transportation patterns.
Because vehicle emission rates depend on such a great variety of factors
(i.e., type of vehicle, condition of vehicle, driver habits, traffic flow,
climate, vehicle load, etc.), an accurate functional determination of
these rates is extremely involved, if not impossible. Consequently, the
notion of overall, or "average" emission rate values, becomes a necessary
expedient in the quantification of motor vehicle air contaminants. In
the light of this analytical compromise, average emission data by vehicle
model year have been generated for a "representative" nationwide driving
pattern termed the 1972 Federal Certification Test Procedure, and a
limited number of "region specific" adjustment factors have been
determined for application to the basic emission factors when specific
regional data (average speed, altitude of region, gross weight of
vehicle) is available to permit this adjustment.
Substantial effort was exercised to obtain specific motor vehicle
information characterizing the Sacramento Regional Area such that a
maximum number of "region specific" adjustments could be made. Despite
these adjustments, it was recognized that the final determination of
total motor vehicle emissions involved a procedure containing several
inherent limitations which could cause misrepresentation of region-
specific characteristics.
-69-
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The least reliable aspect of the base year and projected baseline
motor vehicle pollutant source inventory concerns hydrocarbon reactivity
assumptions. Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely difficult and
complex issue. Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according
to the rate at which they react, the mixture that is potentially reactive,
or the products of reaction. The criterion for the ranking of hydrocarbon
reactivity is a controversial issue. The State Air Resources Board
reactivity scale is based on experiments performed in the Los Angeles
APCD smog chamber experiments. The Environment Protection Agency utilizes
a reactivity scale based on experiments by Altshuller. The two scales
are highly discrepant. For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive
according to the ARB, is 99 percent reactive according to the EPA.
Evaporated gasoline, considered 50 percent reactive by the ARB, is
93 percent reactive according to the EPA. Since the conventional oxidant
rollback procedure centers on the reduction of the reactive element of
the total hydrocarbon inventory, the uncertainty surrounding the reactivity
scale is probably the most significant limitation mitigating the calculation
of a meaningful air contaminant inventory.
The determination of total vehicular miles of travel (VMT) within a
specified region is best determined by transportation studies conducted in
the field. VMT may also be calculated based on vehicle registration and
annual vehicle mileage data for the region of study (the approach used by
State Air Resources Board), or based on total regional gas consumption
and vehicle gas mileage data. The latter approaches for calculating VMT
were expected to yield results in accord with the transportation study
figures, provided the regional characterization of vehicular travel used
in the analysis was representative of actual travel in the region (i.e.,
inflow vehicle characterization equal to outflow vehicle characterization).
A summary and comparison of the VMT determination is portrayed in
Figure 3-9.
While there appears to be little question that transportation studies
yield the most reliable estimates of overall vehicular travel in the base
year, there is some question as to the accuracy of segregation of VMT in
terms of heavy duty and light duty vehicles, and in the projection of
-70-
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25
20
• t-
h- 0)
s: Q.
01
>> QJ
=>••- 15
OS ID
-c O
01
•I— (/)
_) C
O
O •!-
10
Gas (a)
Trans portai*«frTbj
Registration (c)
(a) Based on gas consumption estimates*
(b) Based on transportation studies
(c) Based on light duty MV registrations
1972
1975
1977
1980
Figure 3-9. Baseline Total VMT Determinations for
Sacramento Regional Area
* VMT was calculated based on total gas consumption projections
(see Appendix E) and an average light duty MV gas mileage of
12.42 mi/gal (a figure provided by the National Safety
Council (8)).
these values to future years. The latter estimates involve reliance on
limited or conflicting data and as such have been subject to numerous
judgments in the analysis. These judgments involve the selection of various
conflicting studies projecting community growth parameters (population,
money earnings, vehicle registrations, highway and street expansions).
-71-
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Another inherent difficulty in calculating future motor vehicle
pollution arises from the unpredictability of consumer preferences. A
number of unforseen factors may cause considerable changes in future
vehicle buyer habits. For example, it is noted that substantial increases
in small car sales were recorded during the first half of 1973, due quite
possibly, to the rapidly rising gasoline prices and the increased emphasis
on energy shortages. In view of recent air quality emphasis, and the
subsequent mandatory pollution control retrofit programs now being
discussed, speculations are strong that new and later model car sales will
increase significantly in the regions targeted for controls. For the
purpose of the analysis conducted here, consumer buying habits were
considered fixed, and the vehicle model year distribution and annual
mileage by model distribution were assumed the same for all years in the
estimates.
Another weakness in the emission inventory analysis concerns the
day-by-day variability of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles.
The analysis has included the assumption that pollutant emissions are
discharged at a relatively uniform rate throughout the year, when actually
there may be significant daily and seasonal variations which contribute to
a varying atmospheric oxidant potential. The availability of data and the
limited time available for this study did not permit a quantification of
the parameters associated with this issue.
The methodology utilized in calculating motor vehicles (see Appendix A)
emissions provides for an adjustment of the Federal Certification Test
Procedure emission rates on the basis of regional average vehicular speed.
The source of data for regional traffic speeds are transportation studies
conducted by the Division of Highways (7). The average speeds are
reported in terms of "weighted average speeds," and are computed by
aggregating the product of VMT and arithemetic average speeds measured
for the various roads and highways throughout the region. The resultant
weighted average speed is therefore somewhat higher than the true arithe-
metic average speed. Consequently the corresponding speed adjustment
factor for emissions is somewhat misleading. Due to an absence of other
vehicle speed data, the weighted average speeds were incorporated in the
analysis.
-72-
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It is evident that the combined effect of the above limitations is
a basic uncertainty in the reliability of the emission inventory. A
further effect is the untenable status of pollution control strategies
which rely on the analysis. The assumptions and constraints contained
in the methodology are inherently unavoidable at this time. However,
the analysis presented herein is fully representative of current
methodology in motor vehicle emission estimation, and as such, represents
the most valid inventory update available at this time. Further study is
needed to qualify and improve the emission quantification procedures.
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3.3 TRANSPORTATION DATA
Travel data for The Sacramento Regional Area was derived from the
Origin-Destination Survey conducted between August 1968 and April 1969,
and from subsequent forecasts to 1980 (7). Additional information was
obtained from the local planning, engineering and transit agencies (.9, 10,
11. 12).
Travel Characteristics, Base Study
An origin-destination study conducted by the State Division of
Highways in 1968 showed that there were a total of 1,500,047 driver trips
( 7 ) in the Sacramento Study Area on an average weekday. Of these
1,379,620, or 92 percent were trips entirely within the area (7), while
less than one percent passed completely through the area. Table 3-9
summarizes the number of intra-area trips by mode and type for weekdays
in the study area.
TABLE 3-9. SACRAMENTO AREA TRANSPORTATION STUDY
INTRA-AREA TRIPS BY MODE AND TYPE (WEEKDAYS)
Person Trips
Trip Type Number Percent
Home-Based: 1,469,800
Home-Work 383,280
Home-Shopping 255,340
Home-Other 821,180
Nonhome-Based: 520,260
Work-Other 149,640
Other-Other 370,620
TOTALS 1,990,060
Note: Totals are two-way
Source; Reference (7 ).
73.9
19.3
12.8
41.8
26.1
7.5
18.6
100.0
trips.
Driver
Number
961 ,600
318,360
184,960
458,280
418,020
134,480
283,540
1,379,620
Trips Nondriver Person Trips
Percent Number Percent
69.7
23.1
13.4
33.2
30.3
9.7
20.6
100.0
508,200
64,920
70,380
372,900
102,240
15,160
87,080
610,440
83.2
10.6
11.5
61.1
16.8
2.5
14.3
100.0
The distribution of vehicles associated with occupied housing units,
by housing unit type, is shown in Table 3-10 below. Although 12.8 percent
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of the dwelling units were without available vehicles, only 1.1 percent of
total person trips were by public transit. Almost one-half of all dwelling
units had two or more vehicles.
TABLE 3-10. VEHICLES BY HOUSING UNIT TYPE
Total Single- Multi-
Occupied Family Unit
Housing Per- Struc- Per- Struc-
Units cent tures cent tures
Total 257,420 100.0 189,440 100.0 55,920
Units
Units 33,020 12.8 12,580 6.6 11,800
Having
Zero
Vehicles
One 96,680 37.6 63,740 33.7 29,840
Vehicle
Two or 127,720 49.6 113,120 59.7 14,280
More
Vehicles
Per- Group Per-
cent Quarters cent
100.0 12,060 100.0
21.1 8,640 71.6
53.4 3,100 25.7
25.5 320 2.7
Source: Reference (7).
According to the 1968 transportation study, auto travel averaged
11.5 million vehicle miles of travel (VMT) per day. The average trip length
of all trips within the area was 4.58 miles. Work trips, which made up 32.8
percent of all intra-area trips, constituted the longest trips (6.32 miles
average) made in the study area (7 ).
The Sacramento central city attracted 15 percent of all intra-area
driver trips, with one-half of these destined for the central business
district. The majority of transit trips, about 81 percent, were also
destined for the CBD (7 ).
The central area has an extensive amount of parking with 4,500 off-
street and 3,000 metered spaces (12). Two parking structures with a total
of 2,000 spaces are being planned. The Redevelopment Agency is planning to
provide parking in their area and additional parking will also be required
at the new Convention Center. The State of California provides 4,300 spaces
for its employees at a cost of $7.00 per month for street lots and $13.00
for its 300-space garage (13). A new 1,500 space parking ramp is now being
planned.
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The 1968 Origin-Destination Study showed that only 2.8 percent of all
drivers ( 7) had to pay for parking at their destination. In the Sacramento
central area the proportion of those who have to pay for parking increased
to 18.4 percent ( 7).
Travel Characteristics, Future Years
As part of the continuing, comprehensive planning process, the
California Division of Highways has prepared 1980 travel forecast for the
study area. It has been estimated that the number of trips will increase
by 72 percent over the 1968 total and daily vehicle miles of travel, which
in 1972 had reached 14.1 million, and would increase to 19.2 million (14).
Table 3-n provides data characterizing travel in the study area.
Distribution of travel between the urban area and the remainder
of the study area is expected to remain about the same as in base year --
approximately 67 percent urban, and 33 percent non-urban. With the
completion of some key sections of Interstate 5 and 80, overall freeway
usage will increase from 32.1 percent in 1968 to 43.0 percent in 1980.
Average speed and average trip length will also tend to increase with
greater freeway usage.
TABLE 3-11 . COMPARISON OF TRAVEL 1968-1980
1968
Daily Vehicle Miles (DVM) 1
Resident DVM
Nonresident DVM
Vehicles/Household
Driver Trips/Vehicle
Average Internal Trip Length
Average Resident External Trip
Length
Average Resident Trip Length
Average Nonresident External
Trip Length
Average Speed
Average Freeway Speed
Average City Street Speed
Percent Travel on Freeways
Expanded 0-D
0,705,610
9,157,679
1,547,931
1.52
4.73
4.58
18.19
4.95
22.36
34.0
55.3
28.8
32.1%
1980 C-D
20,298,284
16,912,162
3,386,122
1.70
4.92
5.56
19.30
6.02
26.32
38.7
57.6
28.9
50.7%
+ 89.6%
+ 84.7%
+118.8%
+ 11.8%
+ 4.0%
+ 21.4%
+ 6.1%
+ 21.6%
+ 17.7%
+ 13.8%
+ 4.2%
+ 0.3%
Source: Reference (14 )
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Average weekday vehicle miles of travel were estimated for the
target year by interpolation between the 1968 base year and the 198(ra'
forecast year for which future traffic assignment had been completed.
Distribution of traffic by functional classification of facilities was
derived from previous highway usage inventory and adjusted for future
travel patterns as observed from the traffic assignments. Average speeds
used in the model were considered representative for the system. Local
streets were assumed to operate at 15 miles per hour in urban areas and
25 miles per hour in non-urban areas. Detailed summary of VMT estimates
are given in Appendix F.
' ' Since the latest population figures published by the Department
of Finance indicate that previous estimates were high, actual
1980 traffic assignment was considered as more representative
of 1984 and was used as such for intermediate year estimates.
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REFERENCES (SECTION 3)
1. California Air Quality Data, Vol. 11-IV, California Air Resources
Board.
Personal communication, letter of May 16, 1973; to Eugene Leong,
TRW, Inc., from John A. Maga, Executive Officer, Air Resources
Board. In answer to request (April 26) to review peak oxidant
and CO measurements compiled by TRW.
2. "Rollback Modeling, Basic and Modified," Noel de Nevers. Draft
Document, EPA, Durham, N.C. (August 1972).
3. "State of California Implementation Plan for Achieving and
Maintaining National Ambient Air Quality Standards," State of
California Air Resources Board, February 1972.
4. Private communication with Environment Protection Agency,
Region 9 Office.
5. Private communication with William H. Ellis, Special Products
Research Chemist, Chevron Research Company, El Segundo, California.
6. "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation," David
Kircher and Donald Armstrong. Environmental Protection Agency,
October 1972.
7. "SATS 1980 Progress Report," Preliminary Draft, California
Division of Highways, March 1972.
"SATS Base Year Report," Volume II, Home Interview Survey 1969,
State of California, Division of Highways, District 3, March 1971.
8. "California Traffic Accident Summaries," Department of California .
Highway Patrol.
9. Private communication with State of California, Division of
Highways, Transportation Planning staff personnel, April 1973.
10. Private communication with Sacramento Regional Area Planning
Commission staff personnel, April 1973.
11. Private communication with Sacramento Regional Transit District
staff personnel, April 1973.
12. Private communication with Sacramento City Traffic Engineering
Department staff personnel, April 1973.
13. Private communication with State of California, Long-Range Facilities
Planning Office staff personnel, April 1973.
14. "SATS 1980 Progress Report," Preliminary Draft, California Division
of Highways, March 1972.
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4.0 CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
In 1975, the baseline control strategy, fundamentally consisting
of the present California-Federal new vehicle control program and the
present California retrofit program, falls far short of obtaining the
emission levels which will allow the Federal air quality standards to
be met. As shown in Table 4-1, emissions of reactive hydrocarbons
remain much higher than allowable emissions even through 1980. For CO,
air quality standards should be met by 1975. At attain the Federal
oxidant standard by 1975 or 1977, an extensive transportation control
strategy will be required.
TABLE 4-1. BASELINE vs. ALLOWABLE EMISSION LEVELS
RHC
CO
Baseline
Allowable
Baseline
Allowable
1971
119
34
691
622
1975
103
34
544
622
1977
95
34
458
622
1980
88
34
365
622
This chapter develops a transportation control strategy for the
Sacramento Regional Area. Section 4.1 discusses alternative controls -for
stationary sources, aircraft, and motor vehicles. The potential motor
vehicle controls are of three types: (1) controls of documented feasibility,
(2) controls of uncertain implementability, and (3) transportation controls
to reduce VMT.- Before formulating a new, proposed strategy with these
controls, the ARB strategy was evaluated. Section 4.2 critiques the ARB
strategy according to the accuracy in its baseline projections, as well
as the appropriateness of its amended control effects. Finally, Section 4.3
combines potential controls into a TRW proposed strategy. This strategy
breaks into Phase I and II according to whether or not controls of uncertain
implementability are included.
4.1 ALTERNATIVE EMISSION CONTROL MEASURES AND THEIR EFFECTS
This section provides a description of the more feasible candidate
emission control measures considered for abatement of stationary, aircraft,
and motor vehicle source emissions.
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4.1.1 Stationary Source Controls
Stationary source controls are applied to reactive hydrocarbon
(RHC) emissions from surface coatings, degreasina operations, dry cleaning,
the handling and transfer of gasoline and from open burning. As exhaust
emission control standards for motor vehicles become more stringent, the
proportional share of RHC emissions from these sources will increase.
This section provides source category descriptions and, where available,
cost estimates for controls on a per unit basis.
Surface Coatings
This category consists of reactive hydrocarbons emitted from the
application of protective and decorative surface coatings. There are two
main emission categories:
a) Solvent evaporation with no change in chemical form
b) Solvent evaporation with a change in chemical form resulting
from heat or flame contact.
The main sources in these two categories are architectural coating and
paint baking, respectively.
The Sacramento Air Pollution Control District has enacted regulations
concerning organic solvent usage which are comparable to Los Angeles' Rule
66. Since Rule 66 represents relatively stringent control, the potential
for further control of emissions from this source category is limited.
The proposed controls consist of a tightened version of Los Angeles
County Rule 66 to further eliminate RHC emissions. They are:
1) Substitution of water-based for organic-based coatings
2) Use of powdered and/or high solids content coatings
It is estimated that a further 50% reduction in RHC emissions from
this source is a reasonable expectation once the proper substitutions are
developed and marketed (1). To allow a reasonable lead time for full
implementation it has been assumed that a 30 percept reduction will be
attained by 1975, and a 50 percent reduction by 1977.
Degreasers
This source category consists of reactive hydrocarbons emitted
from degreasing operations. Almost all hydrocarbon emissions from
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degreasing come from three solvents: trichlorethylene (TCE),
1,1,1-trichlorethane (1,1,1-T), and perchlorethylene -(PCE). There
is currently a considerable degree of uncertainty concerning the
reactivities of these compounds. According to the Los Angeles County
APCD reactivity index, TCE is considered reactive while 1,1,1-T and PCE
are considered non-reactive. This classification of the solvents will
be assumed for the purposes of the present study.
The present state of control for reactive hydrocarbons from
degreasers consists of limited substitution of non-reactive for reactive
solvents and condensor or absorber systems to recover evaporative losses.
The proposed control consists of complete substitution of 1,1,1-T
for TCE in degreasers using TCE. Necessary process and equipment changes
for this substitution are anticipated to be minimal, in fact, 1,1,1-T may
actually save on operating costs. The substitution of PCE for TCE would
involve higher costs in terms of both equipment changes and operating
costs.
It is assumed that a complete elimination in reactive hydrocarbon
emissions from this source category will result. It is also anticipated
that since the required solvents are readily available, this measure can
be fully implemented by 1975.
Dry Cleaners
Most dry cleaning is done with synthetic solvents, rated non-reactive
on the Los Angeles APCD reactivity scale. There are, however, a few large
dry cleaning plants that use reactive petroleum solvents. The use of
these petroleum solvents is apparently declining.
The proposed control consists of adding activated carbon adsorption
systems to the petroleum solvent dry cleaning plants in order to collect
the solvent vapors. Such systems have been used extensively in synthetic
solvent plants for recovery of the high-cost synthetic solvent (i.e.,
roughly $2.00/gal vs. $.30/gal for petroleum solvent). A 90 percent
reduction in emissions from this source appears to be a realistic goal
for 1975.
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Gasoline Modification-Reid Vapor Pressure Change
One method of lowering the evaporative losses is to change the
composition of the gasoline, e.g. by changing the vapor pressure. Such
a change requires a complete analysis of the impact on all emission
subsequent to the change and the resultant change in photochemical
reactivity of the modified fuel. According to Nelson (2), lowering the
Reid vapor pressure from 9.0 psi to 6.0 psi reduces the expected
evaporative emissions by 27 percent.
On the other hand, a joint study by the CARB, LAAPCD, and Western
Oil and Gas Association (7) found much less benefit from such a fuel
composition change. Although the study found the average percentage gains'
in emissions from stationary sources to be in good agreement with Nelson,
the total net reduction was considerably less. Overall, the CARB study
concluded in Reid vapor pressure from 9.0 psi to 6.0 osi would produce
only a net hydrocarbon emission reduction of 9 percent. The key
consideration was that "in general, a reduction in vanor pressure using
fuels like the prototypes would produce a reduction in emissions due to
evaporation of gasoline, an increase in exhaust hydrocarbon emissions,
and a decrease in the total organic emissions associated with both
gasoline associated sources and all sources, mobile and stationary"(7).
In addition, if one considers the impact of the reactivity change,
the net benefit from a change in Reid vapor pressure becomes even less
yet. Using the R-l reactivity scale, it was concluded the overall gain
from all gasoline related emission sources drops to about 4 or 5 percent
and if the R-2 reactivity scale is used, the equivalent gain becomes
only 1.2 percent. Thus, when the total resultant hydrocarbon losses
(evaporative and exhaust) and the reactivity questions are considered,
the gains in hydrocarbon improvements become quite low. If one goes on
further to examine the cost associated with such a fuel composition
change, the cost effectiveness of this strategy becomes very marginal.
At least two studies have reviewed the cost of such a change. The
first (4) estimated capital costs at some $60 million and manufacturing
cost per gallon at approximately 1.33 cents for large refineries and
2.13 cents for smaller refineries. The American Petroleum Institute (5)
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indicated that modifying gasoline to have a Reid vapor pressure of 6 psi
would increase manufactured costs by 1.24 cents per gallon. Assuming an
average markup between refinery and consumer of about 100 percent (Oil and
Gas Journal, December 1972), the cost would average 2.5 cents per gallon
more to the consumer.
In summary, the key considerations are:
• Changing Reid vapor pressures results in substantial
reductions in evaporative losses during fuel transfers.
t A lower Reid vapor pressure may increase exhaust hydro-
carbons negating some of the reductions gained.
• A lower Reid vapor pressure may increase the reactivity
of the gasoline again, partially negating some of the
reductions gained.
• The cost of modifying gasoline to provide a lower Reid
vapor pressure is substantial.
In view of the above, changing the Reid vapor pressure of gasoline
appears to be a strategy which deserves further investigation, but which
cannot be recommended at this time.
Evaporative Emission Control - Bulk Terminals
A different approach to controlling evaporative losses from the
marketing of gasoline is to use some type of vapor recovery or mechanical
trap system. Vapor recovery at bulk or wholesale terminals has been
required in the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay areas. The control
consists of floating roofs on storage tanks and a refrigeration-compression
system together with loading dock modifications to handle vapors displaced
during the filling of delivery trucks. This latter system is estimated to
cost roughly $250,000 per bulk terminal facility (3). This cost is broken
down as $100,000 to $200,000 for the refrigeration-compression unit,
and $100,000 for loading dock modifications. Such facilities recover
roughly 90 percent of the vapors escaping during loading operations.
Since the publication of the ARB Implementation Plan for the
region, the Sacramento County APCD has proposed regulations controlling
emissions from bulk terminals. The proposed regulations would be fully
implemented by January 1, 1974. Since other regions around the state
have already enacted such regulations, it is anticipated that the
proposed regulation will be enacted. Emission reductions due to these
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controls are thus claimed, but no cost has been assigned since this may
be considered a pre-existing program.
Evaporative Emission Control - Service Station Modifications
Standard Oil Company of California has been experimenting with a
mechanical trap (vapor return) system to be used during the filling of
service station underground storage tanks (8). In such a system, vapors
displaced from the underground tanks are returned to the delivery truck
during the filling operation. The system as tested consists of a "T"
connection to the underground vapor line, valves, and a three-inch diameter
vapor return hose. Cost estimates for retrofitting service stations with
such a system varied from $900 to $2000 per station, with a most probable
figure of $1300 per station (9). This cost is almost entirely due to
labor costs incurred in excavation to gain access to the underground line,
T-connector fitting, tank purging, and subsequent repair of the ground
surface. In terms of efficiency, the tests revealed that an approximate
94 percent vapor recovery is entirely feasible. EPA emission factors for
this operation in the absence of vapor return are 12 lbs/1000 gallon
throughput (splash fill) and 7 lbs/1000 gallon throughput (submerged fill).
Recently, the American Petroleum Institute sponsored a study of
methods available for evaporative emission control between the service
station and the automobile. For the techniques studied which are primarily
service station oriented, "control methods would avoid about 71 percent
of vapor emission immediately upon completion of the service station
conversion. The vapor emission avoided would progressively increase
over a period of about 10 years to about 94 percent to 98 percent
depending on the particular method considered" (6). The variation in the
percentage effectiveness over time is dependent upon the development of a
safe, vapor tight filling nozzle and a matching standardized automotive
fill pipe.
Although many alternatives are available, only three of the most
promising techniques from the study (6) are presented. The descriptions of
these methods are as follows:
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Case 3 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with No
Recovery of Excess Vapors
This control scheme is based on displacing vapor from the vehicle
fuel tank to the storage tank from which the fuel was pumped. This
is accomplished by making a tight seal at the interface between the
fill nozzle and the fuel nozzle and the fuel tank fill pipe. The
fill nozzle is designed such that there is a space around the nozzle
through which the displaced vapors can be directed to a vapor return
line. This line directs the vapors displaced from the vehicle fuel
tank back to the underground storage tank from which the fuel is
pumped. The volume of the vapors displaced equals the volume of the
fuel pumped from the storage tank. The vehicle fuel tank vapor in
the underground storage tank is displaced back to the fuel supply
truck at each delivery... . Any excess vapors generated at the
service station due to temperature conditions is vented to the
atmosphere (6).
Case 4 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Refrigeration
This control scheme is based on displacing vehicle fuel tank
vapors during refueling back to the storage tank from which
the fuel was pumped. This is accomplished by making a tight
seal at the interface between the fill nozzle and the fuel tank
fill pipe. The fill nozzle is designed such that there is a
space around the nozzle through which the displaced vapors can
be directed to a vapor return line. This line directs the vapors
displaced from the vehicle fuel tank back to the underground
storage tank from which the fuel was pumped. The voljjme of the
vapor displaced equals the volume of the fuel pumped into the
vehicle fuel tank. The vapor in the underground storage tanks is
displaced back to the fuel supply truck at each delivery... .
Any excess vapors generated at the service station due to tempera-
ture conditions are vented to a two^stage vapor compression system
with intermediate cooling and final condensation by refrigeration.
Condensed vapors consisting of propane and heavier hydrocarbons
are returned to the underground storage tanks. The refrigeration
unit is of 1.0 ton capacity at -10°F, and it is started and stopped
on suction pressure sensing in a vapor holder (6).
Case 5 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Activated Carbon Adsorption
This control scheme is based on displacing vehicle fuel tank
vapors during refueling back to the storage tank from which the
fuel was pumped. This is accomplished by making a tight seal at
the interface between the fill nozzle and the fuel tank fill pipe.
The fill nozzle is designed such that there is space in the nozzle
through which the displaced vapors can be directed to a vapor
return line. This line directs the vapors displaced from the
vehicle fuel tank back to the underground storage tank from which
the fuel was pumped. The volume of the vapors displaced equals
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the volume of the fuel pumped into the vehicle fuel tank... . Any
excess vapors generated at the service station due to temperature
conditions are vented to an activated carbon adsorption unit. All
of the hydrocarbons are adsorbed in this unit. The activated
carbon unit consists of four transportable canisters containing
25 pounds of activated carbon each. These canisters are regenerated
about four times per month during the summer and considerably less
during the rest of the year. The canisters are regenerated at the
fuel supply terminal and their contained vapors are covered in the
terminal vapor recovery system. The canisters are hauled to and
from the supply terminal on trucks- fitted specifically for this
purpose (6).
The effectiveness of the "Case 3" method was approximated to be
71 percent recovery assuming service station conversions were intitated in
1973 and completed in 1975. Eventually, a 95 percent recovery could be
expected when all automobiles were fitted with standardized fill pipes.
This maximum control would not occur until about 1985 due to the lead time
for normal attrition of older vehicles. Cases 4 and 5 are estimated to
have about a 3 percent better vapor recovery due to the condensation or
adsorption of the vapors escaping from the storage tanks.
The costs for each case were estimated as follows:
Case 3 - Vaoor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakout for new and revamp stations.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor ($16/Hr)
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 418 $1,438
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight
seal vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor
return hose). 330 78
$1,516
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 150 151
$1,667
Concrete removal and repair and tank — 2,500
purging $ 898 $4,167
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New station cost = $898 + $1,667 = $2,565
Revamp station cost = $898 + $4,167 = $5,06$
*Labor costs at $16/hour.
Operating Costs to Service Station
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal
vapor return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor return
portion of the hoses at $30/year.
Case 4 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Refrigeration
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakout for new and revamp stations.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor ($16/Hr.)
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 883 $1,896
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight seal
vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor
return hose). 330 78
Condensation-refrigeration package 5,000 500
$6,213 $2,474
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 1,243 247
$7,456 $2,721
Concrete removal, repair, and tank — 2,500
purging $7,456 $5,221
New station cost = $7,456 + $2,721 = $10,177
Revamp station cost = $7,456 + $5,221 = $12,677
Operating Costs to Service Station
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal
vapor return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor return
portion of the hoses at $30/year.
Cooling water at 3 gpm at $0.20/M gallons, say $28/year.
Power supply for 3 HP motor at $0.03/KWH, say $63/year.
Maintenance and inspection cost, use 6%/year installed;
equipment cost = $10,159 x 0.03/year = $609/year. (Water
is used only when equipment is in operation.)
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Case 5 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Activated Carbon Adsorption
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakdown for new and revamp station.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor ($16/Hr.)
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 638 $2,096
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight seal
vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor return 330 78
hose).
(8) carbon canisters at $80 each 640 32
Regeneration facilities** 25_ 1_2_
$1,633 $2,218
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 327 222
$1,960 $2,440
Concrete removal, repair, and tank — 2,500
purging $1,960 $4,940
New station cost = $1,960 + $2,440 = $4,400
Revamp station cost = $1,960 + $4,940 = $6,900
**Regeneration facilities for 167 stations.
Operating Costs to Service Station/Regeneration Terminal
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal vapor
return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor return portion
of the hoses at $30/year. Power supply for 5 HP vacuum pump
motor at $0.03/KWH, say $l/year.
The cost effectiveness for each of the systems reviewed is as
follows.
$/lb.Vapor £/ga1.gas % reduction
Case Description recovered pumped 1977 1985
3 S/S displacement 0.19 0.14 76 95
4 S/S displacement 0.82 0.61 79 98
and refrigeration
5 S/S displacement 0.34 0.25 79 98
and activated carbon
-------
From these figures it is obvious that Case 3 represents the most
efficient technique for motor vehicle vapor recovery. Cases 4 and 5 offer
additional recoveries but the incremental costs associated with these
recoveries is very high.
In summary, the controls selected for application to evaporative
emissions resulting from the marketing of gasoline are as follows:
a) Vapor recovery at bulk terminal loading facilities
(where required).
b) Underground tank vapor return to delivery truck.
c) Motor vehicle tank vapor return to underground tank
storage ("Case 3" of Reference 6).
Open Burning
This control category consists of three sub-categories identified
by the California Air Resources Board in their implementation plan source
inventory. These are agricultural incineration, lumber industry
incineration and backyard incineration.
Backyard Incineration
The ARB's plan for control of backyard burning should reduce
emissions in this category by 50 percent in 1975:
"... by 1975, backyard burning at single and two-family
dwelling units will no longer be permitted in urban
areas where alternative waste disposal provisions are
available..." (10).
Lumber Industry Control
Improvements in burning practices to be required of the lumber
industry will reduce emissions in this category by 60 percent in 1975:
"Controls which will promote more complete combustion
in the lumber industry's burning processes will reduce
the emission of highly reactive organic gases..." (10).
Agricultural Incineration
Finally, a 20 percent reduction in RHC emissions from the incineration
of agricultural wastes is expected due to improved burning practices
(e.g., more complete drying of wastes before incineration).
"By 1975, open burning will have been completely banned
in this Basin " (10).
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4.1.2 Aircraft Controls
Aircraft control measures can be divided into three categories:
fuel modifications, engine modifications, and modifications of ground
operations. The Environmental Protection Agency has studied each of
these categories to assess the potential for aircraft emission reduction.
After a preliminary analysis of fuel modification as a category of control
measures, it was determined that no significant reduction in Set II
Pollutants could be achieved in this manner (11). Fuels can be modified
to reduce emission of sulfur oxides and lead, but no significant reduction
in emission of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, or nitrogen oxides can be
attained this way.
Engine modifications were studied in greater detail by EPA; the
individual measures in this category are described in Table 4-2. Each of
these modifications can reduce the emissions of at least one of the three
pollutants mentioned above by between 50 and 90 percent (11). Table 4-3
lists the estimated development time, development cost, and implementation
cost for each of the engine modifications evaluated * However, as the table
indicates, only one -- fuel drainage control -- can be implemented in time
to be effective in 1975. This measure also has the lowest estimated total
cost. This measure does not, however, reduce aircraft emissions at the
airport, since fuel is not now drained from planes during the Landing
Takeoff (LTO) Cycle as specified by the EPA.** Few of the remaining modi-
fications have a high probability of being implementable by 1977. Cost is
also a serious obstacle to implementation of these measures. The estimated
total cost of the least expensive turbine engine modification is approxi-
mately 150 million dollars; the least expensive piston-engine modification
is approximately 100 million. In addition, engine modifications require
that the engine be re-certified with the Federal Aviation Administration
(12), after the modification is made; this requirement presents an addition-
al obstacle to the retrofit of in-use aircraft. In conclusion, because of
engineering, economic, and institutional constraints, the aircraft control
* Estimates are based on implementation at a large metropolitan airport.
** See Appendix B
-------
TABLE 4-2. ENGINE MODIFICATIONS FOR EMISSION CONTROL.FOR EXISTING AND
FUTURE ENGINES
Control Measure
Turbine Engines:
Existing Engines
1. Minor combustion
chamber redesign
2. Major combustion
chamber redesign
3. Fuel drainage
control
4. Divide fuel
supply system
Water
injection
Modify compressor
air bleed rate
Future Engines
7. Variable-geometry
combustion chamber
8. Staged injection
combustor
Description
Minor modification of combustion chamber
and fuel nozzle to achieve best state-of-
the-art emission performance.
Major modification of combustion chamber
and fuel nozzle incorporation advanced fuel
injection concepts (carburetion or pre-
evaporization).
Modify fuel supply system or fuel drainage
system to eliminate release of drained fuel
to environment.
Provide independent fuel supplies to sub-
sets of fuel nozzles to allow shutdown of
one or more subsets during low-power oper-
ation.
Install water injection system for short
duration use during maximum power (takeoff
and climb-out) operation.
Increase air bleed rate from compressor at
low-power operation to increase combustor
fuel-air ratio.
Use of variable airflow distribution to
provide independent control of combustion
zone fuel-air ratio.
Use of advanced combustor design concept
involving a series of combustion zones
with independently controlled fuel inject-
ion in each zone.
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Table 4-2 (Continued)
Piston Engines:
Existing Engines
1. Fuel-air ratio
control
2. Simple air
injection
Limiting rich fuel-air ratios to only those
necessary for operational reliability.
Air injected at controlled rate into each
engine exhaust port.
3. Thermal reactors
4. Catalytic reactors
for HC and CO
control
5. Direct-flame
afterburner
Air injection thermal reactor installed in
place of, or downstream of, exhaust manifold.
Air injection catalytic reactor installed
in exhaust system. Operation with lead-
free or low-lead fuel required.
Thermal reactor with injection of air and
additional fuel installed in exhaust system.
6. Water injection
Water injected into intake manifold with
simultaneous reduction in fuel rate to pro-
vide for cooler engine operation at leaner
fuel-air ratios.
Positive
crankcase
ventilation
Current PCV system used with automotive
engines applied to aircraft engines.
Effective only in combination with one of
preceding control methods.
Evaporative
emission
controls
A group of control methods used singly or
in combination to reduce evaporative losses
from the fuel system. Control methods com-
monly include charcoal absorbers and vapor
traps in combination with relatively complex
valving and fuel flow systems.
Future Engines
9. Engine redesign
Coordinated redesign of combustion chamber
geometry, compression ratio, fuel distri-
bution system, spark and valve timing, fuel-
air ratio, and cylinder wall temperature to
minimize emissions while maintaining oper-
ational reliability.
Source:
Aircraft
Control.
Emissions:
United States
of
Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility
Protection Agency, 1973
Environmenta
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TABLE 4-3
TIME AND COSTS FOR MODIFICATION OF CURRENT
CIVIL AVIATIONa ENGINES
Control Method
Turbine engines
Minor combustion
chamber redesign
Major combustion
chamber redesign
Fuel drainage control
Divided fuel supply
Mater injection
Compressor air bleed
Piston engines
simple air injection
Thermal reactor
Catalytic reactor
Direct-flame
afterburner
Water injection
Positive crankcase
ventilation
Evaporative emission
control
Development
Time,
In
Years
2.5
2.5
1
5
2.5
4
1.5
3
2.5
3
1.5
2
1.5
to 5
to 7.5
to 2.5
to 7.5
to 4
to 6.5
to 3
to 6
to 5
to 6
to 3
to 4
to 2.5
Development
Cost
(106 dollars)
37
74
1.5
84
25
90
9
25
22
25
9
4
4
Implement-
ation Cost
(106 dollars)
383
665
5.4
102
175
58
165
424
535
424
400
94
269
a "Civil Aviation" includes air carrier and general aviation engines
Source: Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control.United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
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measures listed as engine modifications are not recommended for imple-
mentation in the Sacramento Area for purposes of attaining the 1975
National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
Six methods of modifying ground operations at airports to reduce
aircraft emissions have been studied by EPA. These are as follows:
1. Increase engine speed during idle and taxi
operations.
2. Increase engine speed and reduce number of
engines operating during idle and taxi.
3. Reduce idle operating time by controlling
departure time from gates.
4. Reduce taxi operating time by transporting
passengers to aircraft.
5. Reduce taxi operating time by towing aircraft
between runway and gate.
6. Reduce operating time of aircraft auxiliary
power supply by providing ground-based power
supply.
These measures are to be considered for use in connection with turbine air-
craft only (11), with the possible exception of Number 3. Each measure has
the potential for reducing total hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions
at a large airport by amounts which vary between 2 and 65 percent (11).
Table 4-4 shows the estimated implementation time, initial cost, and an-
nual operating cost for each of the ground operations control measures
when applied at a major airport. Number 3 can be immediately eliminated
because of the development time required.
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TABLE 4-4
COSTS AND TIME FOR OPERATIONS CHANGES
AT A LARGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Control Method
Increase engine speed
Increase speed,
reduce number
Control gate
departure
Transport passengers
Tow aircraft
Reduce APU operation
Time
In
Years
0
0.3
5
2.5
1
0.5
Initial
Cost
(TO6 dollars)
0
0
15
65
1.2
1.3
Annual
Operating
Cost Change,
(106 dollars)
8.5
/
-0.7
-0.4
5.0
0.4
1.5
Minus sign indicates an estimated savings
Measures 1., 3., 4., and 6. are, in general, relatively ineffective in
reducing aircraft emissions at major airports (1); and, as Table 4-4
indicates, they are more expensive than the remaining two measures.
EPA has determined that Measure No. 2 is the most cost effective of
all measures listed in both categories studied -- engine modifications and
ground operations (11). Number 5. is more costly and slightly more effective
than 2., and it is less accurately quantifiable than 2. because of the
significant difference in the availability of data, and it is more dependent
on the geometry and layout of the particular airport. As a result, ground
operations Measure No. 2. has been selected for further evaluation as a
potential control measure.
Source: Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control.United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
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4.1.3 Motor Vehicle Emission Controls
There are a number of control measures for reducing motor vehicle
hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen emissions. In this
section, each measure is defined and is accompanied by a brief discussion
of the technical and economic aspects of its implementation.
The programs to be described are as follows:
» Vehicle inspection/maintenance
• Retrofit measures
Vaccum Spark Advance Disconnect
Lean Idle Setting
Catalytic Converters
Air Bleed
Positive Crankcase Ventilation
Exhaust Gas Recirculation
Inspection/Maintenance - For a number of years, the State of
California has had a program requiring emission control to be inspected or
installed on used cars before they are registered by new owners. A Certifi-
cate of Compliance from a Class A (licensed) service station is required to
meet this measure and to insure the proper idle setting, air/fuel ratio,
and ignition timing. The California Highway Patrol has also been administer-
ing roadside, spot inspections to check for safety as well as idle emissions.
Vehicles which fail the emissions test are required to visit the Class A
station. About 15 percent of the vehicle population is inspected by the CHP
each year.
It has been found that a substantial emission reduction can be achieved
when the motor vehicle population is properly serviced. Vehicles emitting
three times their specified allowable rates have been identified in the exist-
ing inspection program. The emission reduction potential that could be
obtained by identifying all vehicles which need servicing is great, especially
in a time when emission controls are becoming more complex and prone to de-
terioration. A more rigorous inspection strategy is desired.
Inspection/maintenance measures are intended to reduce vehicular
emission through a program of mechanical and analytical inspection,
followed by a mandatory maintenance. Maintenance (tune up, repair, parts
replacement, etc.) will, therefore, allow each vehicle to operate in a
significantly less polluting fashion.
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Generally, maintenance requirements are based on the results of a
periodic idle emissions test or a loaded emissions test. By selecting
the appropriate percentage failure rate for vehicles tested, it is possible
to obtain varying levels of effectiveness for the program. Increasing the
failure rate criteria results in higher emission reductions.
The idle emissions test is run by sampling exhaust emissions when
the vehicle is in the idle mode. The sample is analyzed to determine
pollutant emission levels. Maintenance is required if the vehicle exceeds
established emission limits. This procedures is easier and less expensive
to run than the loaded emissions test and can be done at most service
stations.
The loaded emissions test is conducted using a chassis dynamometer
and a trained technician. The nature of the test equipment and skill
required to run this test makes it both more time consuming and expensive
than an idle test. However, the loaded inspection is a more diagnostic
test, and is effective in pinpointing defective engine and emission control
components. The vehicle is operated on the dynamometer at different load
modes that simulate various modes of normal operation. The exhaust is
sampled at each mode in the same way that it is sampled in the idle
emissions test. High cruise, low cruise, and idle, are three modes that
might be tested. Certain engine malfunctions can then be traced by
referring to a "truth chart" which serves as a maintenance aid.
With either test, criteria can be established so that a certain
percentage of vehicles will fail the initial inspection and be subject
to maintenance. Table 4-5 shows what average annual percent reductions
are to be expected in light duty vehicle exhaust emissions for each test
as a function of percent initial failure of the vehicle population (13).
TABLE 4-5
Percent Initial Failure Rate
Percent Emission Reduction
Hydrocarbons (loaded)
Hydrocarbons (idle)
Carbon monoxide (loaded)
Carbon monoxide (idle)
10
8
6
4
3
20
11
8
7
6
30
13
10
9
8
40
14
11
11
9
50
15
11
12
10
Source; Environmental Protection Agency
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The impact of inspection/maintenance on emissions is fairly
predictable, since the proposed program would be a mandatory one. Public
opinion surveys indicate most people favor such a program. However, the
tendency of such a program is to be socially regressive because it is the
older cars that are the most vulnerable to maintenance. The economic
burden will, therefore, hit lower imcome people harder.
Retrofit Measures - Any device or system adjustment that can be added to
a motor vehicle, after it is sold, and which reduces emissions is classified
a retrofit. There are many emission control retrofits that have been
evaluated. The more successful and implementable devices are discussed in
this section. The reader is referred to two other documents for a more
in-depth discussion of these and other devices: "Control Strategies for
In-use Vehicles," an EPA document, and "Emission Control of Used Cars,"
by the Technical Advisory Committee of the California Air Resources
Board.
Like the inspection/maintenance program, retrofit measures are likely
to impact older vehicles to a greater degree than newer vehicles. The
reduction effect of different retrofit options on the three major motor
vehicle pollutants is shown in Table 4-6, with the installation cost for
each option also indicated. It must be assumed that these retrofits are
coexistent with an inspection/maintenance program as the values shown for
percent reduction of each pollutant can be applied to maintained vehicles
only (14, 15).
TABLE 4-6. RETROFIT CONTROL MEASURES
Installed
Retrofit Option Cost
Pre-controlled Vehicles
Lean idle air/fuel ration $
adjustment and vacuum spark
advance disconnect
Oxidizing catalytic converter
and vacuum spark advance
disconnect
Air bleed to intake manifold
Exhaust gas recirculation and
vacuum spark advance disconnect
Controlled vehicles
Oxidizing catalytic converter
Exhaust gas recirculation
20
195
60
35
175
50
Average Reduction
HC
25%
68%
21%
12%
50%
0%
CO
9%
63%
58%
31%
50%
. 0%
per Vehicle
NOV
23%
48%
0%
48%
00%
40%
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
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Each measure shown in the table is defined below with a brief description
of each one's technical and economic implications.
Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect - This modification to the distributor
involves changing cylinder combustion conditions in such a way that up to
a 50 percent reduction in hydrocarbons is possible. The durability of
such a system is very good. Fuel economy will deteriorate, and in some
vehicles this deterioration may be as much as 20 percent. Hotter running
engines is another factor which must be considered, with overheating in
hot weather and high exhaust valve wear distinct possibilities.
Lean Idle Setting - This is a measure which might increase fuel economy
as much as five percent. The cost of this modification is nominal ($3-$6),
and a mechanic with the right instrumentation can perform the setting
easily. The buildup of deposits in the carburetor is the only major
durability problem aside from the high probability of mechanic or owner
tampering due to the expected decrease in idle quality.
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter - Catalysts offer a -substantial reduction
in carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons after the device has warmed up
sufficiently. The lowest levels of lead, phosphorous, and sulfur in the
currently available fuels will introduce a durability problem to the
catalyst. If older cars are to be retrofitted with catalytic converters
they will have to be detuned considerably so they can run on no-lead
gasoline.
The operation of the catalytic principle involves the circulation
of exhaust gas over the heated bed of material that readily converts
hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide into water and carbon dioxide.
The installation of the catalyst should be relatively straight-
forward. It is estimated that the cost may be considerably lower than
that shown in the table when they are production items in 1975.
Air Bleed - This is a low cost, simple installation retrofit measure. If
it is well designed, it will reduce emissions at about the same rate as a
lean idle setting on leaner carburetor jets. There will be no problem
with durability. Driving performance will be reduced, however.
Positive Crankcase Ventilation - PCV has been incorporated on all new
cars in California since 1963 as one of the first emission control
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measures. It essentially eliminates all of the emission losses from the
crankcase area. Air is vented through the crankcase and mixed with the
blowby gas. It is then recirculated into the intake manifold through
the variable orifice called the "PCV valve."
Exhaust Gas Recirculation - This measure is designed to reduce oxides of
nitrogen emissions substantially. Installation is somewhat difficult and
moderately costly. Durability is good provided low lead gasoline is used
and there are no engine malfunctions (e.g., misfire, flooding, or oil
burning). Otherwise, the system is liable to become plugged, requiring
a low cost repair. Driving performance could be severly hampered with
this system. Fuel economy also suffers.
4.1.4 Transportation System Oriented Control Measures
Based on the analysis of current data and projected travel, it appears
that additional vehicle controls, termed "system oriented vehicle
measures," may be necessary to achieve the air quality standards established
by law for 1975. The time period is too short to effectively develop and
implement long-range planning objectives. Thus, the choice of control
measures available is limited to those which are feasible in the remaining
time period. Section 4.1.4.1 provides a description of system oriented
measures which can be implemented under the short term constraints of the
Federal air quality standards, and Section 4.1.4.2 includes a discussion
of long-range planning which would attain the air quality goals in a more
acceptable manner.
4.1.4.1 Short Term System Oriented Control Measures
The effectiveness and feasibility of various control measures depend
on the unique character of the area. The Sacramento Valley, unlike the
older urban centers of the East Coast, has developed around the automobile
as the basic form of transportation. This has resulted in low density
residential development, dispersed economic and social activities, and
extremely diffuse pattern of travel. The central business districts
(CBD's), therefore, are relatively weak and employment is not concentrated
except in a few selected locations. The total dependence on automobiles
has led to extremely high auto ownership and, until recently, almost
complete neglect of public transit.
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The System-Oriented Measures which will be given primary emphasis
in this study will be those which would be effective in reducing vehicle
miles of travel (VMT). Traffic flow improvements of substantial
magnitude on a systemwide basis are not feasible within the time and
budgetary constraints. On limited basis, operational improvements help to
reduce pollutant concentrations in cities where there is extreme localized
traffic congestion. The same constraints which prohibit systemwide
improvements, also narrow the choice of VMT control measures.
Among the system-oriented measures there are positive as well as
negative alternatives. Positive alternatives are those which either
reduce trip requirements or provide attractive transportation alter-
natives. Negative alternatives restrict movement without reduction in
travel requirements and increase the total cost of travel. As such, they
are less acceptable socially and politically and should be used only as a
last resort. If restrictive controls need to be imposed for a while,
priority should be given to measures which approach the following
criteria:
1. They should not reduce utility of transportation facilities for
which large sums of public funds have already been expended.
2. They should not require large new capital expenditures for
a limited time period.
3. They should be easy to dismantle when the need for them no
longer exists.
4. They should have minimum negative socio-economic impact.
A number of more widely discussed and recommended control measures
are discussed below. The advantages and drawbacks of both the VMT
reduction strategies as well as the traffic flow improvement programs
are described.
Reduction of Vehicle Use
The most direct way to reduce emissions from motor vehicles is to
reduce their use. The effectiveness of measures which reduce VMT are
potentially limited only by the amount of travel which is auto-captive
and essential. This general goal can be approached by measures which
reduce trip requirements, provide transportation alternatives, or
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establish vehicle restraints. The use of vehicles cannot be significantly
restrained without providing some alternative means of transportation. A
corollary appears to be that significant mass transportation ridership
increases do not occur without some form of natural or artificial vehicle
restraint.
Reduce Trip Requirements
As a general measure, there are no present means available to
effectively reduce trip requirements except for emergency closing of
offices, schools, etc., during an air pollution alert. Since trip gen-
eration is built into life styles and land use patterns, it is not possible
to dramatically alter the number or types of trips by 1975. Positive land
use polities could channel future development into concentrated nodes
each containing a full range of closely linked urban activities with
walking the primary linkage. Such a land use program would not likely
have a substantial impact until a later decade of this century or
beyond.
Another possible approach to reducing trip requirements is the
substitution of communications for travel. Communications technology has
already replaced the need for travel in certain fields such as telephone
and telecommunications used by stock exchanges and computer installations.
These kinds of operations are spreading rapidly and may be expected to
continue, but recent experience indicates that they will not result in a
substantial decrease in urban travel in the near future.
Public Transit
Since personal travel requirements cannot be diminished, some form
of transportation alternatives must be provided if vehicle use is to be
reduced, particularly if vehicle restraints are implemented. These
alternatives can be in the form of public transit or could include
schemes to increase individual vehicle utilization as car pool
incentives.
Improvements to public transit systems include both extension
and/or upgrading of bus systems and provision of rapid transit on separate
rights-of-way. In conventional bus operation, improvements include
level of service (area of coverage, headway, etc.) betterment and
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amenity promotions (air conditioning, bus stop shelters, etc.). The
newly formed Sacramento Rapid Transit District is making great strides
in this direction. Further improvements could result in significant
patronage increases, but it is unlikely that major shifts of choice
riders will occur from autos to transit.
Provision of rapid transit (i.e., fixed-rail or busway) requires
substantial lead time for final design, right-of-way acquisition, con-
struction, and break-in to full service. These tasks cannot be.completed
in time to impact air quality by 1975 in the Sacramento region. Rapid
transit, however, would provide the level of service required for a
major shift of riders from auto to transit.
The Sacramento Regional Transit District (SRTD) was created by
law in 1971 and went into effect April 1, 1973. Financial subsidy
provided by the Senate Bill 325, has permitted a single fare of $0.25
where previously fares as high as $0.65 were paid by riders outside
Sacramento city limits. Daily and monthly passes have been instituted
to eliminate restrictive and confusing transfer procedures. A special
reduced fare of $0.15 is available for youths and senior citizens.
SRTD currently operates a fleet of 119 buses, 51 of which are
modern, air conditioned coaches. Regular service is provided on 16
lines. While one-half of these lines operate on 10 to 30-minute
midday headways, the remainder of service is less frequent. Bus service
is limited in range and frequency outside the Sacramento city limits,
thus a large portion of the urbanized area has little or no public
transportation available.
The District will take delivery of 22 new air conditioned buses
this year. These will be equipped with low emission diesel engines and
will replace an equivalent number of older, obsolete buses. The proposed
budget for fiscal 1973-74 calls for an additional $1.7 million to expand
coverage and to increase the fleet by 37 buses.
Long-range plans are based on regional operation supported by city
and county general fund subsidies, farebox revenues, Senate Bill 325 funds,
and Federal matching grants for equipment. The Sacramento County share
of S.B. 325 funds is in excess of $3,500,000 annually. A portion of Yolo
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County and cities of Roseville and Folsom could contribute an
additional $465,000 annually. General fund subsidies from the City of
Sacramento and Sacramento and Yolo Counties are expected to continue at
nearly $1,000,000 annually. The present fleet could be more than doubled
by 1980.
Long-range plans envision extension of public transit service to
all portions of the Sacramento urbanized area and other areas with close
economic ties such as Woodland, Davis, Roseville and Folsom. To reduce
travel time, extensive use of freeway express buses would be made to serve
a system of park-and-ride lots and local feeder buses. Exclusive bus
lanes would be initiated first in downtown Sacramento to accommodate a
larger number of buses in operation. This concept would be extended
through key transit corridors, including freeway corridors.
Car Pools
Greater efficiency (higher occupancy) in auto use through shared trip
making or car pools, could significantly reduce VMT and hence, automobile
emissions. Time and cost incentives or disincentives against driving
alone are the most effective means of encouraging car pools. The State
of California already encourages car pooling in Sacramento by preferential
parking policies. Exclusive bus lanes offer an incentive to car pools
where such lanes could be shared by autos carrying three or more persons.
Any measure which raises the cost of auto travel such as uniformly higher
parking costs could be considered an incentive for car pools and mass
transportation.
Limited studies of car pooling show that for the program to succeed
four ingredients are essential to its success:
1. Public information
2. Incentives
3. Matching service
4. Continuity in support
Public information is critical to gain public support and to stimulate
demand for car pooling. Incentives are very desirable to motivate people
to join car pools. Positive response is usually received to incentives which
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provide added convenience to car-poolers, such as special park-n-pool
facilities, use of company or agency cars, and preferential parking
treatment. Measures which would penalize driving alone, such as priority
ramps, freeway tolls and graduated license fees, are disliked even by
people who are interested in car pooling.
The following general guidelines have been suggested (21) as to the
type of matching appropriate for different employee group sizes.
Potential Car Pool Group Size Matching Technique
Less than 1,000 Manual matching, using an areawide
map
1,000 to 5,000 Computer matching, based on grid
system
Greater than 5,000 Computer matching, with automatic
address coding
In addition to incentives and car pool matching service, an active
and continuous support of the program is required by the management to
maintain interest and participation. This is particularly true in
institutions such as universities where there is a large turnover and new
people have to be informed and ecnouraged to participate.
The State of California has actively supported car pooling by its
employees through preferential assignment of parking spaces. Priority is
given to car pool participants. Recent survey of employee travel habits
showed that 10,600 employees in the downtown offices were drivers and
another 4,700 were auto passengers. The design of survey was such that
it could not be determined what proportion of passengers rode with other
state employees, but it does appear that auto occupancy for this group is
considerably higher than the average of 1.20 observed for work trips
during the Sacramento Transportation Study and studies in other areas.
The employee survey also showed that 2.8 percent walked or rode
bicycles to work. All of these trips originated within the CBD postal
zip code area. Compact land use development discussed in the section on
long-range planning objectives would encourage the trend towards walking
and greater use of bicycles.
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Vehicle Restraints
A number of measures have been identified which will reduce vehicle
use (VMT) by prohibiting or discouraging auto traffic from specified areas
or discouraging auto travel directly.
• Vehicle Free Zones. All vehicles could be banned
from a few blocks (pedestrian mall treatment,
superblocks) or from an extensive area of concentrated
urban activity to provide vehicle free zones. The
K Street shopping mall and Capitol area in Sacramento
are examples of this type of development. Such zones
obviously eliminate localized emission concentrations
but since most travel consists of getting to and from
the zone rather than within it, emission reductions
in terms of regional requirements are small.
• Parking Control. This family of measures has the
objective of reducing VMT by inducing car pooling, and
shifts to public transit through price increases and
reduced parking availability in major activity centers.
• Tolls. The imposition of tolls on freeways is a potential
method of regulating road use. It is possible, however,
that a high percentage of those priced off the freeways by
tolls may drive on surface streets rather than shifting to
car pools or transit. This could produce increased
emissions as a result of reduced travel speed and idling
on surface streets. Tolls also tend to be regressive since
many of those priced off the roads will be low income
persons.
• Ramp Metering as a Restrictive Control. Ramp metering
is used to optimize the efficiency of traffic movement
in a freeway corridor. It may result in emission
reductions by causing shifts to transit through long
delays in entering the freeway but emissions may in-
crease due to delays and increased travel on slower
moving surface streets. Metering also has potential
utility for shutting down the freeway for episode
control, and as a means to provide preferential entry
for vehicles that have a higher utilization (car pools,
buses).
• Moratorium on Traffic Improvements. Several factors
mitigate against schemes to reduce VMT by permitting
traffic service conditions to decay, thereby encourag-
ing shift to transit or discouraging auto trips from
being made at all. Conventional transit service
elements operating on the same streets as autos would
be negatively impacted. Experience confirms that many
motorists are determined to drive in spite of seeming
intolerable levels of congestion. Added to the safety
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compromise which would occur with a moratorium
on traffic improvements is the fact that VMT
reduction due to shifts to transit could be out-
weighed by pollution increases due to increased
auto operations in the low speed, high emission
ranges.
Tax Disincentives
A "pollution" tax could be charged in direct ratio to the emission
rate and mileage of each motor vehicle or to increase the tax on gasoline
(consumption varies directly to mileage). Schemes to reduce vehicle
mileage through gasoline pricing are not very effective and while imposed
indiscriminately on all segments of society, the largest impact is felt by
limited income groups.
\
Various taxes on automobiles have been proposed. Low fees are not
effective in reducing VMT and high fees are extremely regressive. Sub-
stantial registration fees on second or third family autos might provide
reductions in VMT and still avoid some of the more regressive elements of
this type of taxation.
Gasoline Rationing
Gasoline rationing is a direct restraint on vehicle mileage and,
therefore, emissions. There are a number of approaches to administrating
such a program including control at the source of gasoline production or
at the consumer level (World War II type rationing). This is the one
control measure which is highly quantifiable and which definitely would
reduce travel to a desired level. However, it is also socially regressive
and its legal status is unclear.
Traffic Flow Improvements
Measures to achieve emission reductions through improved traffic flow
fall into two categories: construction of new major traffic facilities
(freeways, expressways and major arterial linkages); and operational
improvements to existing streets and highways. The emission reductions are
brough about by increases in vehicle speeds, reduced idling, and a general
shortening of trip times.
Major facility construction normally enables significant increases
in vehicle travel speed in the corridors affected but also tends to activate
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latent travel demand. In the long run this reinforces auto dependence
and increases vehicle miles traveled. Over the short-range time frame
of primary concern in this study, the air quality impacts of new traffic
facilities can be assumed positive.
Operational improvements to existing streets and highways cover a
broad range of programs. These include freeway improvements such as ramp
metering and removal of bottlenecks; and surface street improvements such
as areawide signal system integration, intersection channelization, minor
widening of streets and intersection approaches, institution of one-way
street systems, and the like. Because they do not produce dramatic shifts
in accessibility, operational improvements generally do not lead to
activation of latent travel demand and their near-term impact on emissions
and air quality is assessed as positive but their specific contribution to
areawide emission reduction is small and difficult to quantify. At best,
the planned operational improvements in Sacramento regional area can be
expected to accommodate an ever increasing amount of travel without
decrease in the level of service.
Work Schedule Changes
Changes in work schedule have been proposed as a control measure in
some cities as they tend to produce marginal flow improvements by reducing
commute period traffic congestion. Two types of schedule changes have
been identified: staggered work hours and the four-day week.
Staggering of work hours could result in some flow improvement but
would produce only marginal reductions in emissions. Staggered work
hours do not decrease total daily VMT but simply spread the time of VMT
generation. Such a strategy is most applicable when the problem is a
short duration, localized concentration of pollutant, particularly
carbon monoxide, which results from temporal concentration of traffic flow.
Staggered work hours, however, also tend to reduce the potential for car
pooling, a measure which relates well to a hydrocarbon problem as it tends
to directly reduce VMT. The State of California already has a system of
staggered work hours for its employees in Sacramento.
The four-day week would reduce VMT generated in work commute travel.
Like staggered work hours, this would be a useful measure if there were a
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localized, temporal problem in employment concentration areas. However,
indications are that increased recreational and other non-work travel
will fully replace, if not exceed, the reductions in VMT resulting from
decreased work commuting. Thus, this measure is unlikely to have a
positive effect on air quality.
4.1.4.2 Long-Range Planning Objectives
While the objective of this study is to develop transportation control
strategies which will help achieve the air quality standards established by
law by 1975, long-range planning measures should not be overlooked. The
following discussion covers some general federal, state and local measures
that should be diligently pursued to insure that air quality standards will
not only be met but also maintained in face of the continuous urban growth.
At the present time there is a tremendous gap between land use and
transportation policies and air quality objectives at all levels of
government. CCurrent trends are toward dispersed, low-density development
patterns which result in a greater number of and longer trips. General
policy has been to provide ample and inexpensive parking everywhere, while
the transit service has been neglected until very recently.
To reverse this trend, increased cooperation between federal, state
and local agencies will be required along with creation of new agencies
and changes in procedures. Federal direction and financial support will
be required for the success of long-term transportation control measures.
DOT, HEW, HUD, and Interior programs must be aligned toward reducing
vehicle miles of travel and making it easier to use transit, car pools,
cicycles and walking.
Specific federal measures which would be of great benefit to air
pollution control in the Sacramento Valley Air Basin are as follows:
1. National land use policy which emphasizes the importance of
(a) higher density, more compact urban development; (b)
stronger central city cores; (c) checks on the scattered
location of major traffic generators within urban areas
(employment, shopping centers, colleges).
2. Transportation funds with greater emphasis on transit
improvements. Transportation policy should provide an
attractive alternative means of transportation and encourage
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more compact urban development. Financial support for
transit operations is critical to the success of air pollution
control strategies.
3. Funds for sewer and water facilities which encourage compact
urban development of higher densities and avoid urban sprawl.
4. HUD housing finance and facility grants and loans should
encourage high density, more compact urban development; e.g.,
emphasize housing rehabilitation and provide 99 percent FHA
financing near CBD graduated down to say 50 percent at urban
fringe.
Possible state control mechanisms could include the following:
1. Transportation, land use, and air pollution control policies
legislated at the state level, but administered and implemented
at the local (metropolitan or regional) level. The State Air
Resources Board, Department of Transportation and a new state
land use agency would each maintain programs and controls in
their respective areas.
a. The new land use agency envisioned would be structered
along the lines of the Bay Conservation and Development
Commission and California Coastline Commissions.
b. The Department of Transportation should be empowered to
take whatever long-range measures necessary to encourage
transit use and reduce VMT.
2. A joint board, composed of equal representation from the
transportation, land use and air pollution areas, should
be formed to coordinate actions of the separate agencies,
reporting to the Governor and Legislature on progress,
problems, and remedial action needed.
The following are potential control measures which could be adminis-
tered from the metropolitan or regional (i.e., air basin) level:
1. Development control (BCDC, California Coastline Commission
model).
a. The agency would develop regional plans in the Valley for
allocating and staging land development to avert high VMT
and air pollution.
b. Require environmental impact reports and possibly limit
developments attracting more than 500 daily trips (large
employment, shopping/housing developments, hospitals,
colleges, etc., not consistent with location and staging
in regional plans).
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c. Prohibit development where transit service is non-
existent or less than adequate to insure low VMT and
achieve air quality standards.
d. Regulate off-street parking through zoning or parking
taxes where such measures will lead to greater transit
use and reduced VMT. Revenues may be allocated to
transit operations.
2. Transportation and land use controls boards at the metro-
politan (regional) level (similar in purpose to the joint
state board) which cooperate with and support the existing
Sacramento Valley Air Basin coordinating council.
Metropolitan councils of government should advise the
regional boards and provide planning support.
Measures which may be effective in controlling transportation from
the city and county level in the Sacramento Valley are as follows:
1. Develop general plans and administer zoning ordinances, sub-
division regulations, and capital improvements programs within
federal, state and regional legal and financial constraints.
2. Develop strong transit corridors -- 5-10 minute transit service
as a focus for high density development and major travel
generators.
3. Regulate parking activity, i.e., zoning requirements, parking
meter policy, "protected neighborhood" parking (on-street
parking by permit only), and commuter parking tax.
These proposals would take a considerable amount of time and effort
by everyone involved. New agencies would have to be created and new
legislation would have to be passed. The basic life style would be
shifted away from total dependence on the private automobile.
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4.2 THE CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCE BOARD (ARB) IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
The state of California Implementation Plan for achieving and
maintaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standards was submitted to the
Environmental Protection Agency in February 1972. The plan consists of
measures to control emissions from both mobile and stationary sources.
The ARB analysis shows that enforcement of these measures will result
in the attainment of air quality standards in the Sacramento Valley
Air Basin by 1977. The following sections provide a review of the
California plan for the Sacramento Basin. Section 4.3.1 is a discussion
of the ARB baseline emissions inventory, and section 4.3.2 provides an
examination of the ARB control strategy.
4.2.1 Baseline Emissions Inventory
Results
The base year for the Sacramento Basin plan was chosen to be 1970.
During this year the maximum hourly oxidant recorded was .24 ppm; and the
maximum 8 hour CO average was 22 ppm. Conforming to the conventional
proportional rollback method, the ARB determined that source emissions of
reactive hydrocarbon emissions must be reduced by 67 percent, and CO
emissions by 59 percent, to attain air quality standards in the Basin.
The baseline emission inventory was quantified individually for
each county in the Basin. The total Basin inventory was then used in the
development of a Basin-wide control strategy. The relative air contamina-
tion generated by the major sources is illustrated in Figure 4-1. The
absolute values of the various source pollutant emissions are shown in
Table 4-7. The above data represent that developed by the ARB in 1970.
Methodology
Base year (1970) air contaminants generated by motor vehicles were
estimated in 1970 by the ARB on the basis of total regional gas consump-
tion and vehicle emission factors (emissions per gallon). The estimated
quantity of each pollutant species emitted from vehicles of various
types and model years was determined by calculating the product of the
fraction of regional gas consumption attributable to the subject vehicle
type and the appropriate emission rate in grams per gallon.
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HIGHLY REACTIVE ORGANIC GASES
277 TPD
Other
Motor
Vehicles
Agriculture
Petroleum
NITROGEN OXIDES
213 TPD
Other
CARBON MONOXIDE
2090 TPD
Other
Motor
Vehicles
Lumber
Combustion
of Fuels
Motor
Vehicles
Agriculture
Lumber
Industry
Figure 4-1. Percentage of Emissions from
Major Sources in Sacramento Valley Air Basin in 1970
Source: California Air Resources Board (17)
Projections of motor vehicle emissions in future years were estimated
utilizing procedures outlined in the "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory
1970-1980" (16). The bases for the estimates are motor vehicle population
projections, vehicle model distribution, vehicle mileage, and emission
rates as determined by the 7-mode test procedure. The estimated quantity
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of each contaminant emitted from vehicles of various types and models
is the product of the number of vehicles, the corresponding average
annual mileage, and the appropriate emission rate in grams per mile.
TABLE 4-7. SACRAMENTO VALLEY AIR BASIN ESTIMATED AVERAGE EMISSIONS
OF CONTAMINANTS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE,1970 (TONS PER DAY)
Emission
Source
Petroleum
Organic solvent
users
Chemical, metallurgical,
mineral
Incineration
combustion of fuels
Lumber industry
Agriculture
Motor vehicles
Aircraft
Ships and railroads
TOTAL
Organic Gases
Reactivity
High Total
12.3 31.7
9.0 45.7
1.2 6.0
3.3 27.1
3.5
2.8 26.2
9.7 90.6
229 320
10.2 20.3
2.8
277 573
Oxides of
Nitrogen
2.2
.8
1.9
16.4
10.0
4.5
170
2.3
4.7
213
Carbon
Monoxide
11.0
48.6
27.5
158
145
1610
83.0
4.5
2090
Source: California Air Resources Board (17).
The baseline inventory for stationary sources in the California
ARB Implementation Plan derives fundamentally from the 1970 California
ARB inventory (17). This 1970 inventory, in turn, is based on joint efforts
of the ARB and the local APCD's in estimating stationary source emissions.
For each stationary source category, these emissions are calculated by
multiplying source activity levels by appropriate emission factors. The
activity levels are basically estimates of throughput (e.g. in petroleum
marketing) production (e.g. of a certain industry), sales (e.g. of organic
solvent), fuel consumption (e.g. in the residential-commercial sector), and
tonnage of wastes burned (e.g. in agriculture). These estimates are obtained
partially by survey, but more often by contacting appropriate agencies,
(e.g. Western Oil and Gas Association, U.S. Bureau of Mines, agricultural
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associations, University Service Departments, etc.). The emission factors
are taken from the EPA's "Air Pollution Emission Factors, Preliminary
Edition," April 1971, or are as developed by local APCDs. Hydrocarbon
reactivity factors in the ARB inventory are all based on L. A. County,
APCD assumptions. Projection of the 1970 ARB stationary source inventory
are made through 1975, 1977, and 1980 according to the assumptions that
each source expands in proportion to population growth.
The method used by the CARB to calculate emissions due to aircraft
is essentially that recommended by EPA in AP - 42: Compilation of Air
Pollutant Emission Factors (19). The number of Landing-Takeoff (LTO)
cycles in each are correlated with 'the particular classes of aircraft,
and the appropriate emission factor recommended by EPA was used, according
to the following formula:
Aircraft _ Emission Number of engines Number of
emissions factor per aircraft LTO cycles
Reactive hydrocarbons were calculated as 50% of total hydrocarbon emissions
for both jet-driven and piston-driven aircraft.
Limitations of the Analysis
The ARB quantification of motor vehicle emissions is confronted
with the analytical difficulties that are inherent to the state-of-the-
art (discussed in Section 3.2.3). In addition, the ARB procedure contains
other questionable limiting assumptions. For example, the emission rates
applied in the analysis were based on the State 7-mode test cycle. This
test, and the sampling procedure used to establish the emission rates,
have been updated to the current Federal Test Procedures which are acknow-
ledged to yield more representative vehicle emission rates. Another
questionable approach utilized in the ARB inventory determination involves
the projection of vehicle populations by the assumption their growth is in
direct proportion to population increase. Table 4-8 provides historical
growth data for the various study areas of the critical California Air
Basins, and demonstrates the discrepancy between growth trends for popula-
tion and total regional vehicle registrations. Also included in the table
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TABLE 4-8. PERCENTAGE GROWTH IN POPULATION AND MOTOR VEHICLES
FOR VARIOUS CALIFORNIA REGIONS (1960 - 1980)
Region
San Francisco
Sacramento
Fresno
Kern
San Joaquin
1960
% Population
Growth
28.39
29.62
14.35
14.61
19.98
- 1972
% Motor Vehicle
Growth
Actual Calculated
64.11 61.91
67.01 65.45
41.30 38.10
39.93 40.92
43.03 42.40
1972 - 1980
% Population
Growth
16.14
16.54
7.75
8.52
12.61
(Projected)
Growth
TRW
21.87
45.39
11.26
17.66
21.73
are the TRW growth projections, based on the multiple linear regression
procedure (Appendix E), for motor vehicle registrations in the various
California Air Basin study regions. Another questionable assumption made
by the ARB is that total regional VMT may be determined from regional
annual vehicle mileage and vehicle population for the region-registered
vehicles. Implicit in the assumption is the existence of a contained
community with all vehicle travel performed within its boundaries. The
limitation of this assumption is most often evident in small regions where
much through travel is prevalent.
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Another ARB procedure subject to potential unreliability, centers
around the conflicting use of two different methods in calculating motor
vehicle emission inventories, namely: the base year emissions which are
based on gas consumption figures, and the projected vehicle emissions
which are based on vehicle mileage distributions. The inconsistency
contained in this approach causes some difficulty in drawing valid
comparisons between the base year emission inventory and projected
emission inventories.
The least reliable aspect of the ARB motor vehicle emission
inventory concerns hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions. The ranking of
hydrocarbon reactivity is a controversial issue. For example, the ARB
utilizes a reactivity scale which designates diesel exhaust non-reactive,
while the EPA considers this exhaust 99 percent reactive. Evaporated
gasoline, considered 50 percent reactive by the ARB, is 93 percent reactive
according to the EPA. Since the conventional oxidant rollback procedure
centers on the reduction of the reactive element of the hydrocarbon
inventory, the uncertainty surrounding the reactivity scale is probably
the most significant limitation mitigating the calculation of a
meaningful air contaminant inventory.
The most obvious distinction between the ARB relative baseline
emissions profile and that developed by TRW is the level of air pollution
arising from motor vehicle operations in the base year. The ARB selected
1970 as its base year, corresponding to a lower oxidant measurement for
its rollback determination. The ARB determined 83 percent of all reactive
organic gases were generated by motor vehicles while TRW placed the figure
at 64 percent. The combination of earlier base year and higher relative
motor vehicle emissions provide the ARB with a substantial difference in
baseline control leverage via motor vehicle controls.
The baseline stationary source inventory of the California ARB
Implementation Plan is derived from the 1970 California ARB inventory (17).
It therefore contains all of the limitations inherent in the 1970 inven-
tory. These include errors in estimating source usage and source emission
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factors. Such errors might be considerable, but most of these figures
(especially the source usage figures obtained from the appropriate
responsible agencies), should be fairly reliable. The only very unreli-
able parameters in the 1970 inventory are hydrocarbon reactivities. As
discussed in more detail in Section 3.2.1, hydrocarbon reactivity assump-
tions are much in dispute, and values can change from 0% to 99% in com-
paring different reactivity scales. The 1970 ARB inventory uses L.A.
APCD reactivity assumptions which differ considerably from recent EPA
values by Altshuller.
The projection of the 1970 inventory to 1975, 1977, and 1980 may
also contain considerable error for certain sources. The ARB has assumed
that each type of emission will grow as population. However, certain
sectors are expanding much more rapidly than population while other
sectors are expanding slower or are contracting. Projection assumptions
that are more oriented toward growth in specific industries and/or sectors
would be much more realistic.
It is believed (18) that a significant degree of error exists in the
ARB estimates for aircraft emissions, due to miscalculation. As a result,
the ARB is currently revising the aircraft emission inventory to correct
these errors. New and more complete data on aircraft operations, includ-
ing those at the numerous general aviation airports and at milia.ry air
bases, should be included in this revision, and recent EPA revisions to
emission factors published in AP-42 should be utilized. The use of the
reactivity factor should also be reconsidered, due to the EPA recommenda-
tion of 90% for both jet-driven and piston-driven aircraft.
Summary
It is evident there are several aspects of the ARB inventory based
on questionable information or procedures. Because of these limitations,
TRW has developed a separate emission inventory based on procedures which
are acceptable to the EPA. Because of the numerous differences in pro-
cedures and base information utilized in the two approaches (TRW and ARB),
the utility of a lengthy and detailed review of the ARB implementation
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plan would appear to be of limited value here, since only the analysis
performed by TRW will be considered meaningful. For this reason the
ARB strategy and its impact on baseline emissions is considered only
briefly in the following section.
4.2.2 ARB Control Strategy
The Plan and Results
The key elements of the California control strategy in the Plan
for the Sacramento Valley Air Basin includes measures to reduce emissions
from both stationary and mobile sources. These measures include:
1. The State's current motor vehicle emission control program.
2. Vehicle emission inspection and maintenance.
3. Control of emissions related to the distribution and
marketing of petroleum products.
4. Control of the emissions from aircraft and ships.
5. Control of the emissions from the lumber industry's burning
processes.
6. Control of the emissions from open burning.
The estimated effects of the most current (April 25, 1973 revision)
control strategy on the baseline emission inventory (April 25, 1973
revision) is shown in Table 4-9. The impact of the strategy measures,
,with respect to ambient air quality, has been estimated by the ARB as.
portrayed in Figures 4-2, 4-3, and 4-4.
Limitations of the Control Strategy
The control strategy proposed for motor vehicles consists only of
an inspection and maintenance program. The ARB has claimed standard
emission reductions for this measure. Implementation will yield an
overall reduction of 2% of the ARB base year reactive hydrocarbon
emissions in 1975. These results are consistent with the TRW analysis.
The ARB stationary source control plan consists of three basic
types of measures:
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TABLE 4-9. EFFECTS OF CONTROL STRATEGY - SACRAMENTO VALLEY AIR BASIN (TONS/DAY)
control omen
Stationary Sources2/
Eel »s lor, Reductions
Petroleum
Organic Solvent Users
Cherr.lcol
Metallurgical
Incineration
Combustion of Fuels
I*jc5er Industry
A;r!cultur*e
Projected Etrlsalonc (Stationary)
Mobile Sources (Unlfr Current Projrsi*)^
Inspection and Maintenance
C'talftlc Converter Retrofit
Retrofit Evaporation Control
NO, Exhaust Retrofit, HDV
Coir/ersloo to Caeeouo Fuel
Control of Aircraft anJ Ships
Projected Erp'sslor.s (Mobile)
Projected Emissions (Directly Emitted)
Photochemical ly Generated Partleulate Hett
Trojected Controllable Enleslons (Total)
Allowable Erlsslona
ErlsDlor, Reductions Needed
Aabler.t Air Quality
1970
Projected
Stundard
CAMOR MOKCDODK
1970
390
390
1697
1697
2087
r
2087
85U
(8-
22
9
1975
420
--
- 25
- 95
- 30
270
1130
- 17
-163
930
1200
«
1200
854
346
our Av
13
1977
435
—
- 25
- 95
- 30
285
799
- 39
-169
591
676
—
876
854
--
j . -ppti
*
I960
455
—
- 30
- 95
- 35
295
608
- 26
it OH
699
--
69P
354
--
1
*
imwxjEH DIOXIDE!/
1970
36
36
171
171
207
207
357
(A
.029
.05
1975
39
-j
—
39
109
- 7
102
141
—
141
357
—
niial .1
*
1977
40
—
—
40
79
- 7
7?
112
--
112
357
--
/e . -pp
.
I960
42
—
—
42
58
- 7
SI
03
—
93
357
~
,)
.
' OXIDAHTS/
1970
38
38
229
229
267
267
89
(1-
.24
.08
1975
41
- 8
- 2
- 2
- 2
19
fi3
.-.4
- 12
" 97
116
~
H6
89
27
:our A'
lio
-
1977
42
- 8
- 2
- 2
- 2
15
"77
- .5.
~2
- 12
..Go
.:n
—
75"
89
—
e.-pptr
>"
1980
45
:~
- 2
- 2
- 2
16
'58'
- 3
- 13
. 42
58
--
50
89
--
)
*
Jl/ Ccatrol otr»t»gy bax-d on control of oaldet of nitrogen
i/ Control str»tegy bM«d on control of highly rsactlrs orgsnle gaaea; • proportional reUtlsnihip vas
to exist b«t¥««o «i*l«nt oxidwt leyels «n4 hiittljr re*ctlr« organic g&» «all»Jon»,
*> Intlua-6 Increase In emission* due to to grovth.
^ Primarily due to rapor recorery aystea for gasoline narketing operations.
^ Adjusts to reflect tbe effaata vblch natural or accidental phenoswna nay Baft (fa aoblent l«T»li.
•Calculated emissions are close to or les:
than those required to meet -national •'
standards.
Source: California Air Resources Board
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2400i—
20001—
1600
1200
800
400
__ ALLOJABLE .EMISSIONS
(854 TONS/DAY)
I
1) CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM'
2) VEHICLE INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE
3) AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
(4) ALL OTHER PROGRAMS
I
1
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 4-2. Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy
Carbon Monoxide Emission Controls for the Sacramento Region
Source: California Air Resources Board, April 18, 1973
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300 •—
250
200
150
100
50
(1) Current Motor Vehicle Program
(2) Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
(3) Aircraft Emission Controls
(4) All other programs
_ALLpWABLE_EmSSIpNS
(89 TONS/DAY)
I
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 4-3. Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy
Oxidant Emission Controls* for the Sacramento Region
*Based on Controlling Reactive Hydrocarbons
Source: California Air Resource? Board, April 18, 1973
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400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
jKLLOWABL EJMISS IONS
(357 TONS/DAY)
1970
(1) CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM
(2) AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
(3) ALL OTHER PROGRAMS
I
I
I
I
1972
1978
1980
1974 1976
YEAR
Figure 4-4. Proposed California Air Resources Board Strategy
Nitrogen Dioxide Emission Controls for the Sacramento Region
Source: California Air Resources Board, April 18, 1973
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(1) Regulation of burning processes in the agriculture,
incineration, and lumber categories.
(2) Vapor control systems for petroleum marketing operations.
(3) A tightening (and extension) of "Rule-66" regulations
concerning organic solvent reactivity.
Calculating percentage emissions reductions due to elimination of
given percentages of certain burning processes is straightforward, and
if ARB plans for eliminating certain burning processes are carried out,
the projected percentage emission reductions would be reliable. How-
ever, some emission reductions have been claimed by the ARB for burning
process modification as well as burning process elimination. Depending
on the reliability of emission factors for the modified process, these
reductions may not be certain and should be viewed with more caution
than reductions claimed from burning elimination.
The ARB plan for vapor control in petroleum marketing operations
(bulk stations, service station tanks, and auto tank filling), involves
some technical difficulties. HOwever, a recent API report indicates
that such control is feasible and supports the emission reductions
claimed by the ARB. Assuming that this control measure can be implemented
according to schedule, the ARB reduction claims are realistic.
The least reliable part of the ARB stationary source control plan
involves the proposed controls for organic solvent users. As noted
earlier, there appeared to be some inconsistency in the ARB's reactivity
assumptions for organic solvents; regions controlled by "Rule-66" and
regions not fully controlled by "Rule-66" were both assigned 20% hydro-
carbon reactivity. For proposed future controls, the ARB has assumed
that a further 80% reduction in RHC could be obtained in most air basins
by tightening and extending Rule-66 regulations. What is even more
troublesome, is that the specific control measures to be used to attain
a further 80% reduction have not been presented. These factors make
the ARB organic solvent control strategy the least reliable part of the
ARB stationary source control plan.
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The CARB has not recommended an aircraft emissions control strategy,
but has assumed that the Federal burner can retrofit program for jet
aircraft will reduce total aircraft emissions by 95% in 1977. This is
not likely, according to EPA sources (20). Mot all the types of aircraft
which were in use during the base year will be retrofit, and the effec-
tiveness of the retrofit program for reducing hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide emissions is expected to be approximately 40% to 50% (reduction),
These reductions can be considered only for most Class 2 and Class 3
aircraft — primarily Boeing 707s, 727s, 737s, and Douglas DC-8s and
DC-9s.
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4.3 PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY
Ultimately, the effectiveness of any control strategy will be
measured in terms of its ability to reduce emissions to the desired air
quality levels. As noted, the relationship between air pollutant emissions
and ambient air quality is not well understood, despite major efforts to
develop both sophisticated analytical and statistical models. Many of the
other limitations in the data bases and working assumptions have been
discussed.
The proposed control strategy resulting from this study fully
recognizes inadequacies in the data analyzed; it is presented to be as
accurate a portrayal as possible of the air pollution situation given the
limits and constraints imposed upon the study. Directionally, the
implementation of many or all of the controls will result in significantly
improved air quality. In a technical sense, the proposed plan should allow
for attainment of the air quality standards by the 1977 target date.
The proposed strategy is constructed of two separate implementation phases,
In general, implementation of Phase I measures can be justified on the basis
of air quality improvements at reasonable costs and with minor social impacts.
These measures are therefore highly recommended for implementation as soon
as possible.
The impact of implementing the Phase II control measures is staggering,
both in terms of economic costs and the societal disruptions which would
result from their institution. Also, it is not clear at this time whether
some of these measures are technologically feasible and/or effective.
Further evaluation and testing is clearly warranted for these measures
before they can be advocated on a wide-spread basis.
The necessity for Phase II control measures results from insufficient
emission reductions being demonstrably achieved from the Phase I measures.
The choice of which additional controls will actually be implemented
remains to be decided. The measures listed in this analysis were chosen
somewhat arbitrarily and are used more for illustrative purposes. They
are intended to indicate the severity of additional controls which appear
to be necessary to achieve the NAAQS. Other measures could easily have
been considered. To some extent, Phase II controls were aimed at
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controlling heretofore uncontrolled sources, e.g., motorcycles, heavy duty
vehicles. The difficulty of achieving additional controls after the
Phase I measures can be briefly summarized:
o By 1975-1977, no single source category predominates in
the emission inventory; that is, all categories contribute
a little to the overall problem.
o Major pollution sources, e.g., stationary sources, light
duty vehicles, will be stringently controlled by 1975-
1977, and additional controls on these categories will be
difficult to achieve.
o Minor pollution sources, e.g., motorcycles, heavy duty
vehicles, although uncontrolled, continue to be a relatively
small contributor to the problem; therefore, controls of
these categories will have only minor impact.
The control measures outlined below are not new and have been
proposed elsewhere; no "magic solution" was found and only incremental
improvements can be expected from each strategy. Over the short term,
large emission reductions will result from presently planned programs at
all levels of government -- federal, state, and local. By the years
1975-77, the remaining uncontrolled emissions will come from many sources,
the majority of which are controlled. At this point in time, incremental
air quality improvements become more difficult, expensive, disruptive, and
publicly unacceptable. However, the severity of the air pollution left
few alternatives for measures which would be adequate to accomplish the
program requirements.
Phase I Measures (Recommended):
1. Gasoline Evaporative Loss Controls - It is recommended that
controls be required to either prevent or capture gasoline
vapor emissions resulting from normal gasoline handling and
transfer operations. Control systems for certain transfer
operations are presently available and should be installed
as quickly as possible at bulk terminals and service station
underground storage tanks. The need for control of these
vapor losses becomes increasingly evident as motor vehicle
exhaust hydrocarbon emissions are more stringently controlled,
and as the percentage contribution of hydrocarbon evaporative
emissions from normal gasoline handling and transfer operations
will increase significantly. Implementation of this measure
should result in reactive hydrocarbon emission reductions of
approximately 19.5 tons per day in 1975 and 26.1 tons per day
by 1977.
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2. Organic Surface Coating Substitutions - It is recommended that
controls be applied to the paint and varnish industry by
requiring the use of less reactive products in surface coating
operations. The paint and varnish industry has for some time
been engaged in research and development of less polluting surface
coating formulations. Examples of new formulations entering these
markets are water-based or high solids content products. It has
been estimated by representatives in the industry that significant
inroads can be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute less reactive
surface coatings for certain applications. It is expected that
implementation of this measure will eliminate about .6 and 1.6 tons
per day of reactive hydrocarbon emissions by 1975 and 1977,
respectively. .
3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - Certain large dry cleaning plants
continue to use reactive petroleum solvents in their normal
operations. In these plants, control measures, such as activated
carbon adsorption systems, should be required to reduce solvent
vapor emissions to the atmosphere. Implementation of this measure
should result in approximately 0.6 tons per day of reactive hydro-
carbons being eliminated by 1975 and 0.7 tons per day by 1977.
4. Degreaser Substitution - In areas with acute air pollution,
substitution of less reactive solvents for presently used
degreaser solvents is a control measure which can readily be
implemented. Widespread institution of this control measure
should result in approximately 1.7 tons of reactive hydro-
carbons being removed from the atmosphere by 1975 and 1.9 tons
per day by 1977.
5. Burning Regulations - Both current and proposed Air Resources
Board regulations for backyard, agricultural, and lumber industry
incineration practices are aimed at either restricting incineration
or requiring more efficient burning practices. It is recommended
that these regulations be implemented as they will result in a
reduction from baseline year emissions of 1.3 tons per day of
reactive hydrocarbons by 1975 and 1.5 tons per day by 1977.
6. Aircraft Emissions Control - It is recommended that ground
operations be modified at Mather Air Force Base, McClellan Air
Force Base, and Beale Air Force Base to reduce emissions from
aircraft taxi and idle operations. This modification will
consist of reducing the number of engines used by all multi-
engine turbine aircraft in the taxi-idle mode at these bases
according to the following schedule:
Current No. of Engines Used for
Taxi-idle (equals number of Number of Engines Used
engines per plane). for Modified Taxi-idle
8 4
4 2
2 1
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It is estimated that this measure will effect the
following reductions in emissions in the Sacramento
Regional Area:
1975 1977 1980
THC RHC CO THC RHC CO THC RHC CO
3.9 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.4
These estimates are based on the fact that, with the
implementation of this measure, fewer engines are emitting
pollutants, and the engines that are being used are
emitting hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide at a lower rate
because they are operating at a higher and more efficient
thrust level.
7. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - In an attempt to derive
the full benefit from both new and used car emission controls,
it is recommended that a mandatory annual inspection/maintenance
program be established. Initially, to minimize many of the
administrative and technical problems associated with instituting
such a program, it is recommended that an idle emissions test only
be required at the state owned and operated test facilities.
After the program has been operative for several years and most
of the administrative details adequately worked out, it is
recommended that a loaded emissions testing program be instituted
by upgrading the testing facilities with the necessary additional
equipment and personnel. Implementation of this two-stage program
should result in 2.2 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons being
eliminated by 1975. In 1977, with the implementation of a loaded
emissions test approximately 4.7 tons per day of reactive
hydrocarbon can be removed from the atmosphere.
8. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - It is recommended that light duty
motor vehicle exhaust emissions be controlled by means of catalytic
converter retrofits on 1966 to 1974 model year vehicles.
Preliminary data indicate that large emission reductions are
possible with these devices. The California Air Resource
Board has proposed widespread use of this retrofit as a
measure for meeting the NAAQS, even though questions relating
to the availability of lead free fuel and the overall appli-
cability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles remain
unresolved. Catalysts developed to date require the use of
lead-free gasoline to prevent poisoning of the catalytic element.
It remains to be seen what percentage of the older vehicles
can operate satisfactorily on lead-free gasoline. Assuming
portions of the 1970-1974 and 1966-1969 vehicles can be
retrofitted with catalytic converters, it is estimated a
reduction of 7.9 tons per day of reactive hydrocarbons can be
achieved by 1975 and 5.2 tons per day by 1977.
9. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - The California Air Resources
Board has accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon
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and oxides of nitrogen emissions from 1955-1965 vehicles.
These devices have thus far been required only in the
South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins.
The devices are essentially a vacuum spark advance dis-
connect (VSAD) with a thermal override switch to prevent
overheating, or an electronic ignition system. It is
recommended light duty 1955-1965 motor vehicle emissions
be controlled by means of a retrofit program requiring
installation of these devices. Implementation of this
measure should reduce reactive hydrocarbon emissions by
1.6 tons per day in 1975 and 1.0 tons per day in 1977.
10. Transportation System Oriented Control Measures - Trans-
portation control strategy proposed for Sacramento consists
of providing an alternative to use of private automobiles
in the form of an improved and expanded public transit
system; a program to increase utilization of vehicles by
encouraging car pooling; and some restraint of individual
vehicle use by parking control measures.
a. Improvement of Public Transit - Public transit is
important to the transportation needs and air quality
in the region. Although the present low density land
use pattern is not conducive to the efficient use of
mass transit, the City of Sacramento is better situated
than most cities because of its more highly developed
downtown area. This situation has resulted from the
large concentration of state and other government offices.
It has been estimated by Sacramento Regional Area
Planning Commission that present ridership could be
tripled by 1985 with the improvements currently
scheduled. If the present improvement program is
accelerated, and this goal is achieved by 1980, mass
transit could account for approximately 40,000 new
daily transit users. Assuming an average occupancy
of 1.5 persons per vehicle and an average trip length
of 5.5 miles, increased transit usage would result in
a decrease of 147,000 vehicle miles of daily travel.
This amounts to slightly less than one percent of the
total projected travel in the area.
b.- Increased Car Pooling - Total vehicle miles of travel
(VMT) can also be reduced by encouraging car pooling,
or sharing of private vehicles by several parties.
Unlike transit riders, this measure deals almost
exclusively with people presently owning and using their
automobiles. The work trip, which traditionally has the
longest trip length and the lowest auto occupancy, is the
principal target.
The City of Sacramento is well suited for car pooling. In
the downtown area, the State of California alone has some
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17,000 employees, with another 11,000 scattered
throughout the city and county. The present
moratorium on state's building program has neces-
sitated leasing of additional office space. Other
potential areas for car-pooling are the military
air bases and industrial centers, such as the
Aerojet General plant.
In the Sacramento study area, the most likely
possibilities for car pooling are the central city
area (RAD 190) and the fringe areas to the south
and east of the CBD (SubRADs 1801, 1702, 1701
and 1601). This area contained 42.7 percent of total
employment in 1968, and it attracted 72,980 person
home-to-work trips. An increase in employment of
28 percent has been projected for this area by 1980.
Assuming similar increases in work trips, the total
vehicle miles of travel generated by these home
based work trips would be:
(72,980 x 2J/1.20 x 1.28 x 7.60 = 591,625 VMT
where:
auto occupancy = 1.20 persons per car
projected growth = 28 percent
projected average work = 7.60 miles
trip length - 1980
By full cooperation and support of all major employers
in the area, it should be feasible to increase the work
trip auto occupancy from 1.20 persons per car to 1.40.
This will result in a reduction of 82,800 daily VMT, or
0.64 percent of projected travel in Sacramento urban
area and 0.43 percent of the total study area travel.
Parking Control Measures - Parking control measures can
be used to either discourage the use of private vehicles
or to increase the efficiency of their usage. This can
be accomplished by either limiting the number of parking
spaces or by controlling their use by pricing mechanisms.
The measure is most effective in the central business
district.
In the absence of total land use planning, solely limiting
the number of spaces or indiscriminately increasing their
cost can injure the vitality of the central business
district. Such action would only promote urban sprawl by
forcing more businesses and their customers out to suburbs
where there is no alternative to private automobile.
Parking control measures must be directed to that segment
of parkers who are likely to come to the central business
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district regardless of controls, but who would use
alternative means if parking became too expensive or
inconvenient. Long-term employee parking is the only
one that falls in this category in Sacramento central
city area.
A previous parking study (22) projected 1980 parking
supply and demand. Estimates showed that there would
be a 6,193 deficiency of short-term spaces and 13,434
deficiency of long-term spaces. As a parking control
measure to promote use of alternative means of travel,
provision of additional long-term spaces would be
limited while the cost of existing long-term parking
rates is increased, especially the State Government
parking facility rates which are approximately 50 percent
of the prevailing rates.
Increased long-term parking rates, combined v/ith
previously proposed promotion of car pooling, should
help to somewhat decrease exclusive use of private
automobiles for work trips to the central business
district. The measure will require increased enforce-
ment of parking time limits in short-term parking
locations as well as prohibition of meter feeding by
all-day parkers.
It is estimated that with parking control measures, car
pooling will increase to where work trip auto occupancy
will rise to 1.45 persons per car. This will result in
reduction of 19,100 VMT, or 0.1 percent of total travel
in the area. Additional 23,000 VMT reduction will result
from 3,000 work trips being made by public transit. Thus,
implementation of parking control measures could result in
reduction of travel by 0.2 percent in the Sacramento
study area by 1980.
Implementation of these transportation system measures discussed
above will result in only marginal effects on the overall vehicle travel
in the study area. A summary of the anticipated VMT reductions is shown
below. The values represent "feasible" control measures which may be
instituted with minimal hardship to individual travelers. The minimal
impact of each of the measures investigated suggests that even if very
rigorous and disruptive approaches were instituted to achieve greater
impact, the effect would still be only marginal.
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SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FOR VARIOUS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
ORIENTED CONTROL MEASURES - SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
Estimated % VMT Reduction
Control Measure by 1980
Improved Public Transit 1.0
Increased Commuter Carpools to Achieve .4
an Average Automobile Occupancy of 1.4
Increased Parking Costs .2
Phase II Measures
1. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Application of the
Phase I control measures on organic solvent uses will result
in significant hydrocarbon emission reductions. However, if
warranted, it appears that additional reductions may be
achievable. These additional reductions will be increasingly
difficult to obtain since the remaining emissions are either
under tight control already or the sources are very minor and
diffuse, making them difficult to bring under control. Examples
of this latter category are organic solvent uses in printing
operations, pharmaceutical uses, insecticide/pesticide appli-
cations, rubber tire manufacturing, plastic and putty
manufacturing, etc. Individually, the sources are minor; in
their composite they are presently a significant uncontrolled
category. No reductions are claimed from possible controls
from these sources in this analysis. As an alternative, however,
it is certainly recommended that a closer examination be made of
these minor polluters.
2. Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - As shown
previously, uncontrolled motorcycle emissions are projected to
be among the highest of any motor vehicle type on a grams per
mile basis. Their overall contribution to the pollution
problem has been minor due to the relatively low number of
vehicles and annual mileages accumulated. However, as the
number of motorcycles increases (uncontrolled) and as more
controls are imposed on light and heavy duty vehicles, their
emission contribution will become more significant. Two-stroke
motorcycles, especially, are notoriously high emitters. In
view of the projected importance of this source category, a
ban on motorcycles during the summer months when smog is most
intense is a possible control measure. Part of the rationale
for this control is that motorcycles are used primarily for
recreational purposes, rather than for essential trip-making.
A ban on motorcycles during the smog season is estimated to
eliminate 4.8 tons of reactive hydrocarbons in 1975 and 5.9
tons in 1977.
3. Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance and Catalytic
Converter and Evaporative Retrofit - As in the case of light
duty vehicles, mandatory inspection/maintenance for heavy
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duty vehicles can be an effective control measure. Based
on limited test data, this control measure has been
demonstrated feasible and effective.
A limited amount of data exists demonstrating the
effectiveness and feasibility of heavy duty catalytic
converter and evaporative retrofits as potential control
measures. It is recommended that consideration be given
for the incorporation of these retrofits under Phase II
strategy controls, provided further field testing
demonstrates the controls feasible and effective.
4. Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit - Still another
retrofit being considered for light duty vehicles (pre-1970)
is an evaporative control device. The California Air
Resource Board is currently investigating the feasibility
of this type of device and if demonstrated effective, they
may advocate its use. Others have pointed to the need for
such controls but actual working prototypes and field
testing data are limited at this time. The technical
obstacles appear to be impeding widespread application of
this control measure. Also, since the device is to be used
on pre-1970 vehicles, its effectiveness decreases with time
due to normal attrition of vehicles which can be retro-
fitted with such devices. If difficulties concerning the
operation of this control device can be remedied, its
incorporation as a retrofit requirement would result in
an emission reduction of 6.1 tons per day of reactive
hydrocarbons in 1975, and 4.0 tons per day in 1977.
5. VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing - As a last resort
type control, or after implementation of all Phase I measures,
additional reductions can be achieved by a program to reduce
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) through gasoline rationing. In
light of recent publicity declaring gasoline shortages and/or
the energy crisis, the public appears to be ready to accept
a modest level of fuel rationing. Rationing should be viewed
strictly as an interim control to achieve modest reductions.
Attempts to impose large scale rationing upon the public will
result in numerous undesirable consequences. The effective-
ness of gasoline rationing decreases as vehicular exhaust
emission characteristics decrease. In fact, if massive
rationing is contemplated, the value of extensive retro-
fitting programs becomes somewhat questionable. As the last
measure to be implemented, it appears that a 14 percent VMT
reduction of light duty vehicles is necessary for attainment
of the oxidant standard by 1977, after imposition of
Measures 1-5 in Phase II, or a 55 percent VMT reduction after
implementation of all Phase I measures.
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The expected level of regional air contaminant emissions in
future years when Phase I controls are Imposed is summarized in Table 4-10.
This table provides a source by source emission description, and demon-
strates the additional degree of control which each of the sources will be
subject to under both the Phase I measures and those controls already
scheduled under the state's current control program. Together, by 1975,
these controls are seen to provide reactive hydrocarbon emission reductions
of 57 percent for aircraft, 58 percent for stationary sources, and 40 per-
cent for motor vehicles. The combined effect of the various Phase I source
controls fails to meet the overall 71 percent reactive hydrocarbon rollback
required for attainment of the oxidant air quality standard. The additional
degree of control required may be obtained by imposing Phase II of the
proposed strategy. These controls are motor vehicle oriented, and result
in the emission reductions shown in Tables 4-11, 4-12, and 4-13. By 1975,
after Phase II controls (less gas rationing) are applied, motor vehicle
reactive hydrocarbon emissions will have been reduced by 57 percent of
their level in 1972 (base year).
Plots 4-5 and 4-6 portray the effect of the proposed pollution
control strategies on total atmospheric hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emissions. The effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in relation
to the allowable emission level required to meet the standards. The
baseline curve illustrates the federal, state and local controls which
are already, or will be, in effect on all types of sources. The Impact
of stationary source Phase I controls on the overall emissions to the
atmosphere is seen to be substantial. Phase I light duty motor vehicle
controls contribute significantly to improved air quality, though most of
the more substantial reduction claims for this source type belong to
the baseline control programs. Aircraft emission reductions attributed
to Phase I controls account for a marginal but significant improvement
in overall air quality. Finally, Phase II control measures reduce
emission levels of motor vehicles to the extent that air quality goals
for the region may be attained.
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Table 4-10. Sacramento Regional Area Emission Inventory After Phase I Control Measures
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commer-
cial, and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral,
Metallurgical, and
Petroleum Production
Subtotal — Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LDMV
HDHV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1972
THC
23
9.6
3.4
7.0
11
18
3.6
4.0
1.8
5.4
86.8
13.6
80.7
5.0
2.0
3.7
191.8
RHC
21
1.9
0.7
1.4
2.2
2.2
0.3
0.4
.
0.7
30.8
12.2
66.7
4.1
2.0
3.3
119.1
NOX
1.6
-
-
-
-
1.2
1.2
0.2
12
0.5
16.7
3.2
80.9
4.2
20.0
-
125.0
CO
-
-
-
-
-
29
19
6
9
1
64
65
506
29
12
14
690
1975
THC
7.0
7.1
0.4
8.5
12
9.5
1.6
3.5
1.9
7.0
58.5
5.8
43.5
5.2
2.3
5.3
120.6
RHC
6.5
1.4
0.1
-
2.4
1.2
0.1
0.4
.
0.9
13.0
5.2
34.5
4.3
2.3
4.8
64.1
NOX
2.0
-
-
-
-
0.7
1.5
0.2
13
0.7
18.1
3.3
64.8
4.6
23.0
-
113.8
CO
-
- -
-
-
-
15
8
6
9
2
40
58.3
261
34
14
20
427.3
1977
THC
3.1
5.4
0.4
9.7
12
10
1.7
3.7
2.0
8.3
56.3
5.9
30.0
4.9
2.1
6.6
105.8
RHC
2.9
1.1
0.1
-
2.4
1.2
0.2
0.4
.
1.0
9.3
5.3
24.8
4.0
2.1
5.9
49.7
NOX
2.2
-
-
-
-
0.7
1.6
0.2
14
0.8
19.5
3.3
50.6
4.5
21.0
-
98.9
CO
-
-
-
-
-
16
9
6
10
2
43
58.3
173
35
12
24
345.3
1980
THC
3.5
5.8
0.4
11.6
13
11
1.9
4.0
2.1
10.0
63.3
6.5
19.6
4.5
• 2.0
8.2
101.7
RHC
3.3
1.2
0.1
-
2.6
1.3
0.2
0.4
-
1.3
10.4
5.8
15.6
3.7
2.0
7.4
43.0
NOX
2.5
-
-
-
-
0.8
1.8
0.2
15
1.0
21.3
3.5
33.5
4.2
20.0
-
825
CO
-
-
-
-
-
17
10
7
10
2
46
59.6
99
38
11
31
284.6
-------
Table 4-11.
Reactive Hydrocarbon Emissions from Motor Vehicles - Projected Inventory and Anticipated
Reductions (1975-1980)
CO
^J
I
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from Phase I
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Inspect! on/Mai ntenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from Phase II
Additional Optimistic Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporate Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/M
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Sacramento Regional Area
1972
Tons/day
66.7
4.1
2.0
3.3
76.1
1975
Tons/day
46.0
4.3
2.3
4.8
57.4
Reductions
Tons/day
-7.9
-1.6
-2.2
-11.7
45.7
-4.8
-6.1
-2.2
-24.8
32.6
Percent
13.8
2.8
3.8
20.4
79.6
8.4
10.6
3.8
43.2
56.8
1977
Tons/day
33.4
4.0
2.1
5.9
45.4
Reductions
Tons /day
-5.2
-1.0
-4.7
-10.9
34.5
-5.9
-4.0
-2.0
-22.8
22.6
Percent
11.5
2.2
10.4
24.1
76.0
13.0
8.8
4.4
50.3
49.8
1980
Tons/day
19.9
3.7
2.0
7.4
33.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-3.3
-0.5
-2.4
-6.2
26.8
-7.4
-2.1
-1.8
-17.5
15.5
Percent
10.0
1.5
7.3
18.8
81.2
2.2
6.4
5.5
32.9
47.0
a Based on presently proposed control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from I EM
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
Table 4-12. Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Motor Vehicles - Projected Inventory and Anticipated
Reductions (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory9
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from Phase I
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Insnecti on/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Sacramento Regional Area
1972
Tons/day
506.0
29.0
12.0
14.0
561.0
1975
Tons /day
345.0
34.0
14.0
20.0
413.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-73.0
-2.6
-8.2
-83.8
329.0
Percent
17.7
0.6
2.0
20.3
79.7
1977
Tons /day
251.0
35.0
12.0
24.0
322.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-53.0
-1.1
-24.0
-78.1
244.0
Percent
16.5
0.3
7.5
24.3
75.8
1980
Tons/day
143.0
38.0
11.0
31.0
223.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-30.0
-0.3
-14.0
-44.3
179.0
Percent
13.5
0.1
6.3
20.0
80.3
I
00
a Based on presently proposed control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 nercent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
Table 4-13. Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions from Motor Vehicles - Projected Inventory and Anticipated
Reductions (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from Phase I
Control Measures
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Total Reductions
Sacramento Reqional Area
1972
1 ons/days
80.9
4.2
20.0
105.1
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
1975
Tons /day
66.1
4.6
23.0
93.7
Reductions
Tons/day
-1.3
-1.3
92.4
Percent
1.4
1.4
98.6
1977
Ions /day
51.4
4.5
21.0
76.9
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.8
-0.8
76.1
Percent
. 1.0
1.0
99.0
1980
Tons/day
33.9
4.2
20.0
58.1
Reductions
Tons/day
-0.4
-0.4
57.7
Percent
0.7
0.7
99.3
CO
10
I
a) Based on presently pronosed control programs
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor'Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
120
100
80
to
o
60
40
20
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(34.5 TONS/DAY)
MLLUKMOLC LH1JO1UI1O /g
(5)
(1) Baseline
(2) Stationary Source Controls
3) Mobile Source Controls
Aircraft Controls
Phase II Controls "Without" Gasoline Rationing
Phase II Controls "With" Gasoline Rationing
1970
•4-
•4-
1972
•4-
•4-
1974
•4-
•4-
•4-
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 4-5. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento
Regional Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons
-140-
-------
I
•^
00
z
o
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-ALLOWABLE. EMISSIONS.
(621 Tons/Day)
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
(3) Aircraft Control
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 4-6. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento
Regional Area - Carbon Monoxide
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REFERENCES
1. "An Economic Air Pollution Control Model Application: Photo-
chemical Smog in Los Angeles County in 1975," J. C. Trijonis,
Appendix A, Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technology,
1972.
2. "Hydrocarbon Control for Los Angeles by Reducing Gasoline
Volatility," E. E. Nelson, Presented at the International
Automotive Engineering Congress, Detroit, Michigan, January
13-17, 1969.
3. Private communication with Howard Kline, Standard Oil Company of
California, June 22, 1973.
4. "Statement on Cost of Changing Fuel Composition," Western Oil and
Gas Association, November 10, 1969.
5. "Effect of Changing Gas Volatitility on Refining Costs," Chemical
Engineering Progress, 65 (2): 51-58 (1969).
6. "Cost Effectiveness of Methods to Control Vehicle Refueling
Emissions for American Petroleum Institute," Refinery Management
Services Company, January 1973.
7. "Gasoline Modification-- Its Potential as an Air Pollution Control
Measure in Los Angeles County," California Air Resources Board,
Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District, Western Oil
and Gas Association, November 1969.
8. "Control of Hydrocarbon Vapor Losses During The Marketing of
Gasoline at Service Stations," M. W. Leiferman, V. E. Preston,
Standard Oil Company of California, June 15, 1972.
9. Private Communication with J. E. Presten, May 1973.
10. "Proposed Revision to Part IX of The State.of California Imple-
mentation Plan for Achieving and Maintaining The National Ambient
Air Quality Standards, Sacramento Valley Air Basin," California
Air Resources Board, April 25, 1973.
11. "Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control," United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
12. Private communication with personnel from Federal Aviation
Administration, Office of Environmental Quality, Washington, D.C.,
May 1973.
13. "Title 40 - Protection of Environment, Chapter 1," Environmental
Protection Agency (40 CFR, Part 51).
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14. "Control Strategies for In-use Vehicles," U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency, November 1972.
15. "Requirements for Preparation, Adoption, and Submittal of
Implementation Plans," Federal Register, Environmental Protection
Agency.
16. "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory 1970-1980," State of California
Air Resources Board, Preliminary Report.
17. "State of California Implementation Plan for Achieving and Main-
taining National Ambient Air Quality Standards," State of California
Air Resources Board, February 1972.
18. Private communication with CARB personnel.
19. "AP-42," Environmental Protection Agency.
20. Private communication with EPA personnel.
21. "Carpool and Buspool Matching Guide," L. W. Pratsch, U. S.
Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.
22. "Sacramento Central City Comprehensive Parking Study," DeLeuw,
Gather and Company, March 1969.
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5.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CONTROL STRATEGY
This section provides an overview of the anticipated economic and
social consequences associated with implementation of the proposed con-
trol strategy. Section 5.1 outlines the actual monetary costs of the
various Phase I measures. Section 5.2 provides a discussion of the
social impacts of the Phase I control measures. Section 5.3 presents
an evaluation of public attitude in the Sacramento Regional Area with
respect to air pollution and the air pollution control measures.
5.1 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED CONTROL MEASURES
The following paragraphs summarize the estimated costs of the pro-
posed Phase I control measures for the Sacramento Regional Area. Cost
evaluations for Phase II implementation were not attempted due to the
uncertain and limited cost information available for the Phase II
measures. Because the mechanisms for recovering the costs of the
various control measures is not clear at this time (i.e. by consumer,
industry, taxes), the cost of implementing the various measures has
been assessed in terms of unit cost of the measure, total overall cost
of the measure for the entire region, and per capita cost in the affected
region. A summary of these costs is shown in Table 5-1.
1. Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control
Full vapor recovery from gasoline marketing operations consists
essentially of two vapor return systems; one system transferring vapor
from the underground storage tank to the delivery truck; and one system
transferring vapor from the vehicle gas tank to the underground storage
tank. The cost of retrofitting service stations with the vehicle
return system has been estimated in a study performed for the American
Petroleum Institute (1) to be $5000 per station. The cost of providing
new service stations with such a system was estimated to be $2565 per
station. In addition, yearly maintenance cost was estimated to be $30
per station. The cost of retrofitting service staions with an under-
ground storage tank vapor return system is estimated to be $1300 per
station (2). This cost was obtained from a range of cost estimates for
such a system of from $900 to $2000 per station. Recently, the Los Angeles
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County APCD published figures which indicated a cost of roughly $630
per station for the identical system (3). Annual costs as well as the
cost of fitting new stations with such a system are negligible. Thus,
the total retrofit cost for full vapor recovery from an existing
service station is $6300, with a $30 per year maintenance cost. The
cost of new stations is $2565, with a $30 per year maintenance cost.
The number of service stations in the study region was obtained
from the Sacramento County APCD, while the growth rate for new service
station construction was assumed to be the same as the growth rate for
the light-duty motor vehicle population in the region. These data were
used to determine the initial total cost of equipping service stations
with vapor recovery control, as well as future annual costs for equipping
new stations with this control.
The economic savings due to the recovery of the gasoline vapors has
not been quantitatively estimated here (although it should be substantial),
This is because of the present uncertainty in the price of gasoline and
the fact that the petroleum industry must allocate the capital for these
systems immediately. Mhether they would choose to recover these funds
from the consumer (by increasing the price of gasoline), or by waiting
long enough for the recovered gasoline to pay for the systems, or by
some combination of the above, is not known.
2. Burning Regulations
More strigent burning regulations will affect farming, the lumber
industry, and incinerator operations. These regulations consist pri-
marily of the "burn-no burn" rule under which burning operations are
prohibited during hours in which meterological conditions are conducive
to smog formation. This restriction is expected to cause negligible
economic impact.
3. Solvent Use Controls
The cost of solvent use controls has been estimated for Los Angeles
County at $4,500,000 (5). This represented the cost of development of
the appropriate solvents. Once developed, the production costs should
be similar to present production costs. Hence, this development cost
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should be apportioned across the nation where such regulations are being
applied. In this case, the cost becomes negligible with respect to
other costs incurred under the proposed strategy, and will be neglected.
4. Inspection and Maintenance Program
According to a California Air Resources Board study (4), the cost
of a 10% failure rate idle-mode inspection and maintenance program con-
ducted at state-owned and operated centers can be summarized as follows:
Initial acquisition cost = $1.21/vehicle
to the state
Annual costs to the vehicle owners:
inspection fee = $0.96/vehicle
source and repair cost = $3.60/vehicle
(at a 10% failure rate)
potential fuel savings = $1.33/vehicle
(at a 10% failure rate)
annual cost to government
lost gasoline tax revenues = $0.68/vehicle
(at a 10% failure rate)
Total annual cost = $5.12/vehicle
(at a 10% failure rate)
According to the same study, the most cost effective program for
motor vehicle inspection and maintenance consists of a key-mode (loaded
emissions) test conducted at state-owned and operated centers. Under
this set-up, the initial costs are estimated to $1.98 per vehicle while
annual costs (assuming a 50 percent rejection rate) are estimated to be
$10.23 per vehicle. This figure is arrived at under the following
assumptions:
Annual inspection fee $ 1.05 per vehicle
Maintenance cost $13.34 per vehicle
Potential fuel savings - $ 8.35 per vehicle
Lost gasoline tax revenue $ 4.18 per vehicle
Total annual cost $10.23 per vehicle per year
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As part of the proposed strategy, it is anticipated that a loaded
emissions inspection and maintenance program can evolve by 1977 as a
Phase II measure following the implementation of the Phase I idle-mode
inspection/maintenance program in 1975.
5. Oxidizing Catalytic Converter Retrofit
A catalytic converter retrofit for 75 percent of 1971-1974 model
year vehicles and 20 percent of 1966-1970 model year vehicles will cost
about $175 per vehicle (6). The total regional cost for this Phase I
strategy retrofit was estimated based on the projected number of
vehicles (see Appendix E) in the applicable retrofit classification.
6. VSAD/LIAF Retrofit of Pre-'66 Light Duty Vehicles
According to California Air Resources Board figures, a reasonable
cost for this retrofit is $35 per vehicle (7). The total cost for
this measure, evaluated for the entire study area, was determined based
on the projected vehicle population data developed in Appendix E.
7. Aircraft Operations Controls
Control measures proposed for aircraft consists of modification of
ground operations, in which the number of engines operating during idle
and taxi is reduced. The costs of this measure will be minimal. If
anything, a slight savings to the air bases will result from the more
efficient use of aircraft fuel.
8. Transportation System Oriented Control Measures
The system oriented transportation controls consist of an accel-
eration in the improvement plans for the Sacramento Regional Area
Transit System, a program to encourage car pooling, and parking control
measures. The cost of these measures is contigent on the ability of
existing organizational mechanisms to absorb responsibility .in attaining
the controls. Accelerated transit system improvements and parking con-
trol measures will most likely be absorbed through the taxing structure
while private industry may likely assume the major responsibility for
car pooling control measures. The actual cost estimate of the measures
was not attempted due to the uncertainties in the nature of implemen-
tation, and due also to the bredth of study allowed in the scope of this
report.
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TABLE 5-1. PHASE I STRATEGY COSTS0 IN THE SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
CO
Control
Measure
Gasoline marketing,
evaporative loss control
Burning regulations
Solvent use controls
Mandatory Inspection/
Maintenance (idle-mode
10% rejection rate)
Oxidizing Catalytic
Converters
VSAD/LIAF Retrofit
Aircraft Operations
Control
Total Cost
Per Capita Cost
Number of
Subject Subjects in
of Region in
Control 1975
Gasoline Service 1,130
Stations
Farms, lumber
mills, incinerator
sites
Dry cleaners
degreasers, users
of surface coatings
Light duty vehicles 671,800
Portion of 236,474
1966 - 1974
light duty vehicles
1955 to 1965 163,114
1 ight duty vehicles
Multi-engine
turbine aircraft
Cost Per
Subject,
$
6,300(existing)
2,565(new)
30(annual)
Nil
Nil
1.21(initial)
5. (annual )
175(initial)
32(annual)b
35(initial)
0(annual )a
Nil
Total
Initial
Cost,
$
7,119,000
Nil
Nil
810,000
41,383,000
5,709,000
Nil
55,021,000
Total
Annual
Cost,
$
188,000
Nil
Nil
3,434,000
7,567,168
oa
Nil
11,189,16C
a The annual maintenance cost for this control equipment is included under the mandatory inspection/
maintenance program.
The cost of replacement for the catalytic converter is estimated at $65 each 2 years (8).
c Does not include cost of transportation system oriented measures, which were not estimated.
-------
Table 5-1 provides a summary of the various control costs (save
system oriented transportation measures) of the Phase I strategy measures.
Per capita costs for Phase I implementation in the Sacramento Regional
Area is $55, with annual cost thereafter equal to $7. This is the cost
of Phase I only, and as such is an expression of the investment required
to obtain an anticipated reduction in base year reactive hydrocarbon
emissions of 46% by 1975, and 58% by 1977 (71% is needed for attainment
of the air quality standards).
5.2 SOCIAL IMPACT OF STRATEGY
Social impacts are non-monetary costs attributable to the imposition
of a set of constraints. These impacts are generally measured by the
loss of time, opportunity, and/or inconvenience. The magnitude of the
impacts is primarily a function of age, race, and income level. Measures
which are intended to influence, control, or restrict the ownership and
use of motor vehicles will, in general, result in social impacts. In a
similar and related manner, measures which affect personal mobility,
mode choice decisions, and regional access also induce social costs.
To date, due to the very nature of social impacts, it has been difficult
to quantitatively evaluate them. For example, only a limited amount of
research has been devoted to estimating lost-opportunity costs with
respect to not making a trip. However, several studies involving
Los Angeles have been published in attempts to quantify these impacts
in a particular locale. Data from these studies have been used in the
following discussion, under the assumption that a reasonable number of
similarities between Los Angeles and each of the three major urban areas
exists for quantitative impact evaluation.
It will be important for APCD's and planning agencies to anticipate
and minimize the impact of controls where possible. Increased public
awareness and conern have been largely responsible for the d'esires to
live in a clean environment. In addition, public participation in the
decision making process will continue to be crucial to the orderly
transition and acceptability of various controls. To be meaningful,
citizen participation must be encouraged at the local and county levels.
Only then can the final decisions concerning which controls are applicable
for a given region be complete and a reflection of the public's desires
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this in turn will result in minimizing the social impacts.
This section (5.2) presents an analysis of the types of social
impacts which are likely to result from the implementation of the recom-
mended control measures. Stationary source and vehicle-oriented mobile
source measures are discussed in Section 5.2.1; measures involving the
transportation system are discussed in Section 5.2.2. The former are
more simply quantified; the latter are more complicated and are discussed
at length.
5.2.1 Stationary Source Measures and Vehicle-Oriented Mobile Source
Measures
The per capita costs of the stationary source control measures and
the vehicle-oriented control measures recommended in this study have been
shown to be nominal. The actual distribution of the vehicle costs may
tend to be socially regressive, in that the poor elements of the population
experience a heavier burden by comparison when required to pay the costs
of retrofit devides and vehicle maintenance. For example, the cost of the
pre-1966 Retrofit measure and the maintenance cost of vehicles rejected
during the inspection procedure are most likely to affect the poor more
strongly than the middle class and the rich, since the poor are more
likely to own the older and poorly maintained vehicles. The total of
these two costs, as estimated in Section 5.1, are large compared to the
probable cost of the vehicles in these categories in 1975 and 1977.
Redistribution of these costs has been the subject of numerous research
efforts in the state of California. Among the recent proposals for
consideration are the following:
Alternative Payment Schemes (10)
t User-Pays — the cost of a control strategy is totally
assumed by the owners of the vehicles affected.
• Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle-Mile-Driver -- the total
annualized regional costs are divided by the annual
vehicle miles driven.
f Uniform-Payment-Per Vehicle -- the total annualized regional
costs are divided by the number of light duty vehicles in
the basin. Each vehicle owner then pays an identical amount
per vehicle. Payment could be made by a uniform increase
in vehicle registration fees.
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• Income-Proportional -- payment of the control strategy is
made on a scale that is directly proportional to income.
For this scheme, everyone in the region - not just those
owning vehicles - is responsible for financing the additional
controls.
In the above list, the user pays scheme must be regarded as the
most regressive, in the sense of inequitable assessment. That is, the
vehicle ownership by model year is sufficiently biased that the largest
burden rests on the group with the smallest income. Conversely, the
income proportional shceme is the least regressive in this sense.
5.2.2 Transportation System Measures
5.2.2.1 Impact on Socio-Economic Groups
The diversity of the region's population and lifestyles results in
non-uniform impacts to different socio-economic groups from the implemen-
tation of various transportation control measures. In an attempt to fully
consider the issue of equity, it is necessary to be cognizant of the
groups which are unduly discriminated against by the different control
schemes. Special care must be exercised to remain sensitive to the needs
of the young, aged, poor, and minorities. In many instances, transporta-
tion planners have either inadvertantly or systematically failed to meet
the requirements of these groups.
By necessity, the young, old, poor, and minority classes have accounted
for a disproportionate share of transit ridership. Since these groups own
fewer motor vehicles,, their trips may be viewed as having more of a required
nature than average trips undertaken. For example, these groups make
fewer pleasur? or recreational type trips. Controls directed at uniformly
reducing VMT may, therefore, impact these socio-economic groups more than
the average groups (i.e., white, middle age, and middle income). Factors
which must be carefully considered in assessing the impact .on these special
groups are presented below.
The Young and Aged
Without question, private automobiles are the dominant means of
personal transportation; yet, because of age considerations, large segments
of our young and elderly population groups are excluded from this
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transportation mode, unless chauffeured. The following table illustrates
the percentage breakdown of auto ownership by age category.
TABLE 5-2.
CAR OWNERSHIP BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD (8)
% of Households Owning
Age of Household Head No Car At Least One Car
Under 25 19.3 80.1
25 - 34 12.0 88.0
35 - 44 11.6 88.4
45 - 54 13.6 86.4
55 - 64 19.7 80.3
65 and over 44.9 55.1
In certain regards, the young and old stand to benefit from the
imposition of transportation controls; in other situations, these popula-
tion groups will be adversely affected. Currently, the young and old
without autos represent a large segment of a transit systems "captive
riders." As shown above, nearly a fifth of those under 25 and more than
two-fifths of those over 65 do not own private autos. This implies these
families are totally dependent on either public transportation or others
with cars for satisfying their transportation requirements. Measures to
improve mass transit, such as more frequent, faster, and cheaper service,
will in general, benefit the young and old.
On the other hand, many trips undertaken by the young and old are
accomplished by chauffeuring activity. Frequently, for reasons of safety,
inconvenience or physical handicaps, it is necessary for the young and old
to depend on friends or relatives for escorted auto transportation. Under
these conditions, VMT reduction measures such as gasoline rationing may
adversely affect the young and old. Typically, these trips are of a
required nature, e.g., school, dentist, doctor, and uniform restraints on
VHT could result in significant inconveniences.
The impact on the younger segments of a population tend to be less
critical than similar impacts on the elderly. Supposedly, lost opportunity
costs and inconveniences are taken more in stride by the young since
"their day will come." With the coming "of age", the younger age groups
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rapidly gain mobility and accessibility; also, physical handicaps pose
less problems with alternative modes of transportation (e.g., walking,
bicycling, etc.).
The problems of transportation and the elderly are of a slightly
different nature. In fact, "many older people see transportation as the
major impediment to their having a personally meaningful and socially
constructive retirement. Only a small fraction of the elderly own auto-
mobiles and have driver's licenses. This is due primarily to their
economic status, and secondarily to health reasons." (9)
In some studies it has been noted that those elderly persons with
driver's licenses accounted for more than half of all trips attributable
to elderly persons, in a particular area. According to one study (9),
"This indicates that there may be a significant latent demand
for public transportation for the elderly. Indeed, when Los
Angeles reduced off-peak fares for the low income elderly by
33 percent, there was a 24 percent'increase in total rider-
ship, and a 10 percent shift in ridership from peak to non-
peak hours. The reasons for the high price elasticity of
demand among older people are their low incomes and the fact
that few of the elderly embark on the inelastic work trip."
Viewed in this context, controls which will facilitate improved
transit services will result in a positive benefit for many of the young
and elderly population segments. Restrictions on auto usage will have
similar impacts on most age categories but, overall, they will affect the
young and aged proportionally less because of auto ownership character-
istics.
The Poor
By definition, the lower income classes are less able to afford
private automobile transportation. Consequently, their position is
closely related to the problems of the young and elderly; as a group, the
poor are, for the most part, dependent on public transportation for
satisfying most trip making needs. Table 5-3 below presents data on
auto ownership by income level.
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TABLE 5-3.
CAR OWNERSHIP BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME LEVEL (8)
Household Income
Under $3000
$3000 - $4999
$5000 - $74999
$7500 - $9999
$10,000 - $14,999
$15,000 and over
Percent
No Car
57.5
30.8
13.6
8.4
4.1
3.8
of Household Owning
At Least One Car
42.5
69.2
86.4
91.5
95.9
96.2
In considering differential impacts by income levels, the means by
which trip purposes are fulfilled is the critical variable. The impacts
can be divided into those associated with transit usage and automobile
usage.
The impacts on the poor from improvements in public transit are
analogous, in many respects, to those previously discussed with regard to
the young and the aged. Most likely, significant benefits will result
from these measures. In addition, it has been suggested that transporta-
tion deficiencies are directly relatable to poverty. Thus, improvements
in public transportation may contribute to easing some of our social and
urban problems as well. In a study of the feasibility of establishing
fare-free transit in the Los Angeles region, it was noted (9):
"Since unemployment is the major issue in poverty-oriented study
and research, many assert that there is a strong relationship
between unemployment and limited transportation to appropriate
job centers. Conclusions of many investigative reports on the
racial flareups of the 60's concurred and listed public transit
improvements among the most vital of their recommendations.
The McCone Commission made such a recommendation following an
investigation of background causes of the Watts riots."
While the report cited the relationship between transportation and
unemployment rates (and therefore poverty groups), it was careful to
point out that discriminatory hiring practices and the competitive job
markets were also major determinants of high unemployment.
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"While non-work trips are generally considered to be more
responsive to fare changes, in the case of bus services the
inconveniences of boarding and departing from the vehicle with
parcels, of making necessary transfers, and of complying with
schedules and routes seem to suppress this elastic behavior
for shopping trips. In the Southern Los Angeles portion of
the employment study which has been discussed, residents in
a community with a 50 percent car ownership rate accomplished
94 percent of food shopping trips via private auto or taxi.
"Assuming that service limitations of bus service could be
reduced, it is more likely that benefits from improvements
in non-work oriented travel would be felt more consistently
within low income groups than benefits from enhanced employ-
ment opportunities. Shopping facilities can be clearly
identified within a community or region, and providing that
an individual has money to do so, he may utilize those
facilities once he has gained access to them."
In other words, improved transit tends to equalize accessibility
among income levels, whereas it is currently more readily available to
higher income groups.
The impact of controls for low income auto owners is quite different.
Currently, as the average income increases, so does the average annual
miles travelled per automobile. Equally interest to note is that up
to incomes of $7,500 per year, the percentage of total VMT by income
group is even less than the percentage of vehicles owned by these
groups. This is due primarily to higher income groups owning more
than one auto per household.
Time penalties are generally perceived as more important with higher
income groups. In this respect then, equivalent time penalties would
result in a more significant impact on the rich or those who place high
values on time inconveniences. Such impacts could result from measures
such as freeway metering, parking restrictions, auto free zones, or
exclusive bus lanes.
The Minority Groups
The impacts likely to be incurred by minority groups from transporta-
tion controls are similar, in many respects, to those impacts already
discussed in the previous two sections. Minority groups have a higher
tendency to be poor, without autos, and largely dependent on public
transportation services to meet many basic trip-making requirements.
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Measures designed to improve public transit will most likely result in a
positive impact on the many transit dependent minorities. Controls on
vehicle usage requiring substantial economic costs will place heavy
burdens on the large share of minorities with low incomes.
Another issue facing minority groups is that of accessibility. As
stated previously, inadequate or poor transit service was cited as one
determinant of the Watts riots. Apparently, the lack of mobility contrib-
uted to the frustrations of unemployment and impeded any attempts to find
meaningful work. Employment centers and transportation systems are inter-
related. Urban transportation systems which promote dependence on auto-
mobile travel systematically exclude many minorities living in poor
neighborhoods from equal opportunities. Control measures contemplated
should carefully consider potential obstacles to the upward mobility and
equal opportunities of the minority classes.
5.2.2.2 Impact on Mobility Patterns
Among the control measures being recommended are those which will
directly impact existing mobility patterns, or when and where .people
travel. These measures are dealt with in the following discussions.
Typical Urban Driving Patterns
The magnitude of the social impact to be expected from any measures
depend heavily on regional characteristics. Present driving patterns in
the San Joaquin Valley have evolved slowly and intuition suggests these
patterns will show a high degree of resistance to change.
Reducing Optional Trips
When .a person makes a trip from one location to another, it is done
to serve some human need or desire. The choice of travel mode, as well
as the actual decision to travel, both involve a human decision process.
Both decisions are probably made rationally with due consideration for a
number of actual and apparent factors. The ability of various individuals
to accurately assess these factors varies, but overall, incorrect judge-
ments in both directions tend to offset each other. Upon consideration of
the actual and perceived factors relating to a trip, the individual
decides whether or not to make the trip and by which mode to travel. Once
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the decision has been made to make the trip, to eliminate or prohibit this
trip would mean that some need would be unmet or purpose unfulfilled.
It must be emphasized that attempting to define which travel is
optional or unnecessary is difficult. One obvious difficulty involves
the definitions of terms such as, "necessary, optional, and essential."
Since we are dealing with personal value judgements, what one individual
views as unnecessary may be considered very essential to another
individual. Even for the same individual and the same trip, circumstances
frequently change so that the individual's perception of the need to make
the trip change. Another difficulty encountered in assessing individual
needs is the dynamic state of decision making as it relates to human
values with the passage of time. The steady growth of VMT experienced
since World War II has in large part been attributable to an improved
quality of life. This affluence has resulted in a higher standard of
living with an increased ability to afford more travel and more time to
partake of it. What was once the Sunday afternoon drive in the park has
now become the weekend excursion to the mountain resort areas.
In order to even approximate what level of trip making is optional
or marginally necessary, it is necessary to superimpose one set of human
values upon another. The imposition of new values upon others will
always result in social costs to the individuals affected. The magnitude
of these costs are related to the severity of the constraints xand the
individual's ability to adapt to the constraints. It is apparent, .
therefore, that caution be exercised in carefully weighing the societal
costs associated with the gains to be derived and the degree of controls
needed, to attain any desired level of VMT reduction.
A number of factors enter into any decision concerning whether or
not a trip should be undertaken. For example, a ghetto family without a
car will make fewer trips overall than an upper class fami'ly which has
three cars at its disposal. In this case, the differences in opportunity
will define the trip making characteristics and needs. Because of dif-
ferences in household characteristics and physical environments, elimi-
nating identical trips are perceived to have significantly different
impact depending on the groups experiencing the impact. Controls which
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will result in trip reductions should not only consider trips intended
for basic functions as working and shopping, but also the human needs
for recreation and relaxation.
5.2.2.3 Impact on Accessibility
It can be said of the San Joaquin Valley that "to have a job, you
must have a car and to have a car, you must have a job." This relationship
of employment opportunities (especially for certain minorities) to trans-
portation has been alluded to previously. The transportation system con-
trol measures recommended in this study will have a definite impact on
accessibility and, consequently, they will result in social impacts.
In general, it is estimated that impacts from accessibility-restrictive
measures are minor and can be very positive. The intent is generally to
penalize private transportation while favoring public transit. In addition
to being conservation-oriented, such schemes tend to favor many of the
underprivileged population segments.
5.2.2.4 Impact on Mode Choice Decisions
Numerous factors affect an individual's choice of travel mode. Those
relating to the individual include age, sex, and income. Equally
important are variables dealing with the individual's environmental
surroundings—land use patterns and transportation systems. Land use
patterns and trends in the San Joaquin Valley are such that choices of
modes other than the automobile are inherently discouraged.
Experience has shown that additional important factors "in mode
choice decison-making are related to the transportation system and its
performance characteristics. Basically, the parameters which determine
mode choice are the time and money associated with the trip. Viewing
the trip in terms of time and money, making the trip requires a certain
economic cost. Obviously, the traveler will attempt to reduce the actual
and perceived costs.
Most of the controls being considered increase the cost of private
automobile travel and/or reduce the cost of public transportation. The
purpose, of course, is to induce higher percentages of people onto public
transit. While aiding those dependent on transit services, measures which
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make it more expensive to drive tend to be regressive. As such, the
social impacts experienced will be more heavily felt by the poor.
It has been shown that time costs are frequently a more serious
penalty to the middle and high income groups. Consequently, measures
which result in time penalties, e.g., ramp metering, exclusive bus and
carpool lanes, are often more effective at inducing transit ridership
than monetary fees. From an equity standpoint, these controls are highly
desirable since the poor place less value on their time. As a result, one
would expect a more uniform mode shift by income groups from such controls.
The result of the recommended control measures on mode choice
decisions will generally favor more extensive public transit usage.
Socially, the impacts will initially be viewed as inconveniences and to a
limited extent, a loss of personal mobility. In the long run, as adjust-
ments are made to new life styles, these impacts will have been appreciably
diminished.
5.2.2.5 Summary
The social impacts associated with implementing the recommended
transportation control measures will be significant. Many impacts
identified will be of a positive nature, e.g., improved mobility and
accessibility for deprived population groups, more efficient energy
utilization. Other impacts, however, are likely to have negative social
impacts, e.g., placing additional burdens or regressive measures on
smaller population segments*..
Table 5-4 presents a summary of the overall social impacts likely to
occur as a function of the control measures. Estimates for the extent of
the overall impacts are intended to present a relative index and have to
be qualified by some rather simplifying assumptions. For example, it was
assumed that the young, old, poor and minorities owned old cars (if any),
drove primarily out of necessity, and placed little value on their time.
The "average" American, however, was viewed as relatively mobile, the
owner of at least one car, and someone who placed a high value on his time.
The impacts on mobility were considered to be those which impeded
when trips would be made and what types of trips would be made; these
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TABLE 5-4. SUMMARY OF SOCIAL IMPACTS
«l
CT>
O
1
Control Measure
Phase I Measures (Recommended)
GasoJ ine Marketing
Evaporative Loss Control
Organic Surfacing Coating Substitution
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Degreaser Substitution
Burning Regulation
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Aircraft Controls
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Improvement of Public Transit
Increased Car Pooling
Parking Control
Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted)
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing
Impact on Socio-Economic Groups
Young/ Average
Elderly Poor Minorities Citizen
0
0
0
0
0
-
0
--
--
+
0
0
0
--
0
0
--
--
00 0
00 0
00 0
00 0
00 0
0
00 0
„
--
+• + 0
00
0 0
00 0
0-0
00 0
00 0
--
„
Impact
on
Mobility
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
• +
-
0
-
0
0
0
--
Impact Mode - Choice Decision
on Private Public
Accessibility Auto Transit
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
+
o •
-
0
-
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
0
--
--
0
.
0
0
0
o
--
--
LEGEND (RELATIVE
. 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
++
+
+
0
0
0
0
0
0
IMPACTS)
•H- Very Favorable
+ Favorable
0 Very Minor or
- Unfavorable
None
-- Very Unfavorable
-------
effects were related directly to the urban driving patterns in the
valley. Accessibility impacts are those which restrict where one goes
and the ease with which the trips can be made.
Lastly, a summary of the impact on mode choice decisions is given.
This considered the relative effect a given measure would have on the
attractiveness of the predominant transportation modes, i.e., the
private auto and public transit.
5.3 PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY
The feasibility of implementing a given control measure is
dependent to a large extent on the manner in which it is received by
the public. To determine local opinion with respect to various potential
control measures, transportation habits, and air pollution in general,
Urban Facts (a service of Market Facts, Inc., an independent marketing
research company) conducted an attitudinal survey among individuals
residing in Sacramento. The specific objectives of the survey were
to determine:
1. Respondents attitudes towards various auto emission
control strategies designed to --
a) Reduce auto air pollution
b) Reduce traffic congestion
2. Respondent attitudes towards various methods of encouraging
use of public transportation
The study was conducted using Consumer Mail Panels, Market Facts'
controlled mail panel facility. Panel members were requested to fill
out the questionnaires immediately and return them to Market Facts as
soon as possible. Certain questions required the panel members (female
househole head) to obtain responses from other members of the household.
139 usable returns were received, representing a return rate of 72
percent.
The questionnaires were mailed on April 18, 1972 and returns were
cut-off on May 10, 1972. The major results of the survey are
summarized below (see Appendix C for detailed response data).
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Motor Vehicle Air Pollution
1. 81 percent of all respondents feel auto air pollution
is a serious or very serious nationwide problem.
2. Respondents feel that automobile air pollution is a
more serious problem nationwide than it is locally.
Only 34.4% of the respondents felt that air pollution
is a serious problem in Sacramento.
3. A law requiring auto emission control equipment of all
pre-1975 cars is much more acceptable at a government
subsidized cost of $50 than a non-government subsidized
cost of $125. Respondents in all cities would expect
to pay at least $7.00 for the inspection; the maximum
expected cost is $9.32.
4. The most acceptable proposals for controlling auto air
pollution are "prohibit traffic/parking in central
business districts" and "create car pool/bus only lanes
on major thoroughfares". The most unacceptable are
"$200 regsitration fee for each auto", "gasoline
rationing", and "have tools on exit ramps of major
thoroughfares".
5. The most acceptable proposal for combatting a possible
gasoline shortage is to limit purchases to 90% of
current consumption. Least acceptable are proposals
to double the price of gasoline and to impose an emission
tax of $15 per thousand miles traveled.
6. Interest in car pools as a means of reducing auto air
pollution was indicated by 43 percent of the respondents.
The majority of respondents feel getting into-a car
pool would be difficult.
7. Proposals rated most effective for reducing traffic
congestion inlcuded "improving timing of traffic
signals" and "prohibiting parking, loading, and
unloading on busy streets". Among those considered
least effective was "widening major streets at inter-
sections".
Transportation Usage
1. In Sacramento, public transportation is generally
selected by the user because it is cheaper, or be-
cause the user does not have a driver's license.
2. Respondents indicate they prefer private auto usage
to public transportation because it is faster, more
flexible, and more available.
-162-
-------
In general, the most effective proposals for encouraging
usage of public transportation facilities are: more fre-
quent service, faster travel, more conveniently located
stops and stations, and lower fares.
There is a substantial reluctance (67%) to dispose of any
car or cars even if public transportation were improved.
-163-
-------
REFERENCES (SECTION 5)
1. "Cost Effectiveness of Methods to Control Vehicle Refueling
Emissions," Refinery Management Services Co., January 1973.
2. Personal communication with J. E. Presten, Marketing Operations of
Standard Oil Corporation of California (San Francisco Offices).
3. APCD Digest, Vol. Ill, No. 5, May 1973, Page 3.
4. • "Mandatory Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance," Northrup
Corp. in Association with Olson Laboratories, Inc., Part B, Final
Report, Vol. V, Part 1, Summary, December 1971.
5. Trijonis, J. C., "An Economic Air Pollution Control Model Application:
Photochemical Smog in Los Angeles County in 1975," ph.D. Thesis,
California Institute of Technology, 1972.
6. "Control Strategies for In-Use Vehicles," U.S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, Office of Air and Water Programs, November 1972.
7. Personal communication with California Air Resources Board.
8. "1971 Automobile Facts and Figures," Automobile Manufacturers
Association, Inc., Economic Research and Statistics Department,
1972.
9. Wachs, M., "The Feasibility of Fare-Free Transit for Los Angeles,"
University of California, Los Angeles, California, 1973.
10. Mikolowsky, W. T., "The Motor Vehicle Emission and Cost Model (MOVEC):
Model Description and Illustrative Applications -- Additional Controls
for Mobile Sources in San Diego County," (Preliminary Draft),
Rand Corp., WN-8142-50, February 1973.
-164-
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6.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
This section deals with the implementation of the control strategy
proposed in this report. Discussion is confined to two areas: the
procedure and time schedule for implementation of the strategy, and the
responsibilities of the government agencies which will be involved in the
implementation of the proposed strategy. These two areas of discussion
are located in subsections 6.1 and 6.2, respectively.
6.1 PROCEDURE AND TIME SCHEDULE
The proposed time schedule for implementation of the control stragegy
is given in Table 6-1. The dates shown for promulgation of the plan are
those prescribed by Federal law. Legislative authority for the recommended
Phase I measures must be obtained by the end of 1973; gasoline rationing
legislation should be obtained by the end of 1975.
As the table indicates, all gasoline marketing facilities should be
controlled to the extent recommended in this study by mid-1975. That is,
existing facilities should be retrofit with appropriate control systems
by that date, and all new facilities built after that date should be
required to include control systems in their construction.
A development program for substitutes for organic surface coating
compounds is currently underway and should be continued indefinitely. The
use of less reactive substitutes should be expanded, beginning in 1974.
Carbon absorption systems effective to the degree recommended in this
study are currently available and should be installed at all dry cleaning
establishments during 1974. Likewise, available substitutes for organic
degreasers should be implemented during 1974. Burning regulation, to some
degree, has already been instituted by the county APCD's. The additional
regulation recommended in this study should be in effect through 1980.
The three vehicle-oriented control measures are Mandatory Inspection/
Maintenance, Oxidizing Catalytic Converter, and Pre-1966 Retrofit Device.
The first part of the inspection/maintenance program, the idle test with
the 10% rejection rate, should be carried out during 1975 and 1976. This
means that all light duty vehicles in each of the three counties should be
-165-
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TABLE 6-1
PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIME SCHEDULE
Element
Promulgation of Control Strategy Plan
• Proposed Control Strategy Plan
• Public Hearings on Plan; Review and Evaluation of
Comments
• Promulgation of Final Control Strategy Plan
(15 August 1973)
Legislative Authority Required for Controls
California Air Resources Board
• Obtain enabling legislation for Inspection of
maintenance
• Obtain enabling legislation for additional
retrofit devices, e.g. catalytic converters
• Obtain enabling legislation to ration gasoline
Phase I Measures (Recommended)
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls
• Establish necessary regulations
• Initiate program of controlling losses from
gasoline marketing
• All marketing facilities controlled
Organic Surface Coating Substitution
• Development of alternatives (e.g. water-based
or high solid control formulation)
• Expand use of less reactive substitutes
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
• Implement Carbon Absorption Systems
Degreaser Substitution
t Implement substitution
1973
1
A
A
:
A
,
'
1974
:
'
k
.
t-
T
4
*-
1075
.
-f
T
— i
'
,
1976
•
1977
1978
1979
1980
-------
TABLE 6-1 (continued)
Element
Burning Regulation
1 1 1
1973
^
• Ayr icul lurdl 4Bk
Aircraft Emission Control
• Establish necessary regulations
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
t Program Design
• Program Preparation
• Mandatory Idle Emission Inspection
• Mandatory Loaded Emission Inspection
Oxidizlm Catalytic Converter
• Installation Program
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
t Installation Program
Mass Transit Program
. • Improve levels of service '
t Establish bus and carpool lanes on freeways
where feasible
• Establish park-and-ride facilities where
feasible
• Institute parking controls
AT-
,
1974
A
-A
A-
t
^~
,
JL
n
1
T
^
I
L
1975
A
1
-!
k
-*
-i
u
L^
i
L
L
1976
1
T
,
•
1977
;
1978
1979
nno
1
1
1
-------
TABLE 6-1 (continued)
CD
00
Element
Phase II Measures (If demonstrably warranted)
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
YMT Reduction through Gasoline Rationing
1973
1974
1975
1976
A
4-
i
-A
t
t
*
-Ai
1977
A-
-A
1978
A
-A
1979
A
-A
1980
-------
inspected (and 10% should be maintained) during the year 1975 and again
during 1976. In 1977 and every year thereafter, all light duty vehicles
should be inspected using a loaded test, and 50% of them should be
required to receive maintenance. The installation of the oxidizing
catalytic converter should take place between mid-1974 and mid-1975.
The pre-1966 retrofit device should be installed during 1974.
The three transportation system-oriented measures recommended for
implementation in the Sacramento Regional Area are improvement of
public transit, increased car pooling, and parking control. The
accelerated expansion of the current bus system should begin in 1974
and should continue through 1980. It is recommended that an aggressive
public information program be instituted in 1974 to encourage and
advertise increased use of car pooling. Car pooling should be
coordinated among employees at work centers in the urban centers in
each of the three counties beginning in mid-1974. Construction of
parking facilities should be limited as soon as possible, preferably
by the end of 1973. Long-term parking rates should be increased by
the middle of 1974.
All Phase II measures should be implemented by 1977, if it is
demonstrated that they can be effective and that they are necessary. The
elimination of motorcycle use during smog season and gasoline rationing
involve relatively difficult institutional and administrative problems and
should be begun in 1976, so that these kinds of problems are obviated by
1977 for maximum effectiveness of the measures in that year.
6.2 AGENCY INVOLVEMENT
Table 6-2 gives the agency responsible for the implementation of
each of the control measures recommended in this study. The section
numbers of the California Health and Safety Code which provide the re-
spective agencies with the authority for implementation of the measures
are listed in the table also. It can be observed that the county APCD's
have the authority to implement all recommended stationary source controls.
The remaining requirement for implementation of each of the measures is
that the Air Pollution Control Board of each agency pass or modify appro-
priate rules and regulations for use within each of the counties.
-169-
-------
TABLE.6-2 AGENCY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTROL MEASURE AUTHORIZATION LEGISLATION
Measure
Phase I
Stationary Source Controls:
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Degreaser Substitution
Organic Surface Coating Control
Mobile Source Controls:
Aircraft Emissions Control
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Transportation System Controls and Improvements
Phase II
Stationary Source Controls:
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Mobile Source Controls:
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy-Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy-Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Gasoline Rationing
Evaporative Retrofit Device
Additional Retrofit Devices
(Sections of California Health and Safety Code)
Responsible Agency
APCD
APCD
APCD
APCD
EPA
CARB
CARB/APCD
APCD
County/City Government
APCD
CARB
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB/APCD
Sacramento or San
24260, 24260.1
24260, 24260.1
24260, 24260.1
24260, 24260.1
TBL
TBL
TBL
24263.8
24260, 24260.1
TBL ^TBL
TBL legi
TBL
TBL
TBL
Joaquin
to be
slated]
o
I
-------
Vehicle-oriented mobile source controls require new legislation,
with the one exception being the pre-1966 retrofit device. This device
is already required in three air basins — the South Coast, San Diego,
and San Francisco. Authority has been given to all APCD's in the state
•for implementation of this measure. Thus, each of the APCD's in the
San Joaquin Valley Air Basin needs to pass an appropriate rule requiring
these devices on light-duty motor vehicles. Effective devices of this
type have been accredited by the CARB.
Authorizing legislation must be passed for two other vehicle-oriented
measures. The CARB will be responsible for the mandatory inspection/
maintenance program; while, if the oxidizing catalytic converter is re-
quired in only part of the APCD's of the state (as is likely) it will be
the responsibility of each APCD to implement necessary rules, and therefore
all APCD's must have the authority by state law to implement the measure.
Thus, two types of legislation must be passed for implementation of the
catalytic converter measure: state legislative autority and APCD rules
pending, of course, CARB accreditation of catalytic converter devices.
Transportation system controls and improvements in Phase I do not
involve the requirement for major authorizing legislation. In each case,
it will require the appropriate division of the local city and county
governments to implement or modify regulations and to impose, where
necessary, procedural constraints and encouragements.
Stationary source measures in Phase II, as in Phase I, require no
additional authorizing legislation. On the other hand, mobile source
controls in Phase II all must be legislated. All will likely be at
least the partial responsiblity of the CARB, although, like the catalytic
converter, it is likely that the legal requirement for the three retrofit
measures in Phase II will actually be the authority of each APCD and that
each APCD will have the responsibility, after accreditation" of hardware
by the CARB, to implment the measures in its jurisdictional area. It is
assumed for the present that gasoline rationing will be within the authority
of the CARB, although the actual legal requirements of this controversial
measure are vague.
-171-
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7.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION
The relative significance of obstacles to implementation of the
proposed control strategy has been estimated using the following
definitions of obstacle categories:
Technical obstacles - obstacles involving the design of
hardware, details of administrative procedure, or
specification of standards or acceptance limits necessary
for implementing recommended control measures.
Political obstacles - obstacles involving the feasibility
of productive interaction among appropriate leaders,
administrators, legislators, and special interest groups
for the purpose of instituting recommended control
measures.
Institutional obstacles - obstacles involving the opposition
of institutions required by the plan with those already in
existence, and necessary adjustment thereof.
Legal obstacles - obstacles involving writing and passing
laws, rules, and regulations required for instituting and
administering control measures.
Socio-economic obstacles - obstacles involving the impact
of control measures on the public, commerce, and industry.
7.1 PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
1. Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control - This control
should meet only minor legislative and socio-economic obstacles.
Necessary laws and regulations are easily specified since there
is a large backlog of feasibility studies and investigations
involving this measure, and since several APCD's in the state
have already instituted requirements for a similar measure and
can serve as a model. There should be very little socio-
economic impact due to this measure. The cost of changes in
gasoline refining and marketing will indeed be passed on to
the consumer, but the actual cost increase per gallon should
be small. Public convenience should barely be affected at all;
consequently, minimal public reaction is expected in these areas.
Moderate technical obstacles will appear in the forms of
hardware development and design for evaporative control systems
at filling stations, on tank trucks, at refineries, and at bulk
terminals. These technical obstacles will fall generally
within the realm of the oil companies in California, since it
will be their responsibility to select technical means for
meeting recommended standards for gasoline evaporative control.
It is expected that their reaction to the proposal for the
evaporative emission control measure will present a moderate
political obstacle to implementation.
-172-
-------
2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - This measure
should encounter no political or institutional obstacles,
but will encounter minor technical obstacles, in that such sub-
stitutes as water-based coatings, high solids content coatings,
and powdered coatings are currently under development
and require lengthy testing before promising formulas can
be used commercially. A minor legal obstacle is anticipated
in writing rules which require the recommended degrees of
control by 1975 and 1977. Small changes in the price of the
product may create minor socio-economic obstacles.
3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - The principle of carbon
adsorption has been proven as an effective means of con-
trolling evaporative losses of solvents from dry cleaning,
and the required hardware is available. Thus, no technical
obstacles are anticipated. The local APCD's have the
authority to implement such controls, and no institutional
obstacles are expected. The only legal obstacle to overcome
is the appropriate local rulemaking, and it is, at most,
minor. No political or socio-economic obstacles are expected.
4. Degreaser Substitution - Acceptable non-reactive substitutes
for current degreaser solvents exist and should encounter no
major obstacles to implementation by 1975. Rulemaking presents,
at most, a minor legal obstacle.
5. Burning Regulations - Burning restrictions have already been
instituted to some degree, and it is anticipated that more
extensive regulation will not meet significant obstacles.
6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - Part I - Idle test, 10 per-
cent rejection rate. Part I of this measure is technically
simple, and requires little more developmental or design effort
than has already gone into the random state lane inspection
already in existence in California. No institutional obstacles
are anticipated, since the Department of Motor Vehicles can
include inspection/maintenance certification as part of vehicle
registration requirements, much as it does with retrofit
devices. Furthermore, this measure may encounter no significant
legar or political obstacles, since a bill reguiring inspection
and maintenance in the South Coast Air Basin (Assembly Bill 380 —
see Appendix D), currently in committee, will probably pass both
houses and be signed by the Governor. Legislation does, however,
remain a potential obstacle, since four similar bills in 1972
and 1973 have not passed the legislature and the administration.
Socio-economic obstacles will be almost insignificant.
Part II - Loaded test, 50 percent rejection rate. Obstacles
for Part II of this measure will be similar in nature to those
expected for Part I, but of larger magnitude. This testing
method is more involved and time-consuming than the method in
Part I and will require more effort directed toward technical
development, design, instrument assembly, and shelter
-173
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construction. Legal obstacles will consequently be
significant, and socio-economic obstacles will probably
be greater because of the higher cost and greater incon-
venience for the vehicle owner.
Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - There are major technical
obstacles involving the implementation of this type of
retrofit measure by 1975. These obstacles derive from
several technical weaknesses in current catalytic converter
designs; for example,
a. Temperature and air-fuel ratio effects on
catalyst operations.
b. Catalyst deterioration effect on reactivity
of hydrocarbon emissions.
c. Susceptibility of the catalyst, container,
and components to damage, contamination, and
attrition of the heavy metals.
Further development, testing, and design are required
for implementation on the recommended dates.
The converters will be relatively easy to install, but they
must be replaced every 25,000 miles and low-lead or un-
leaded fuel must be used. Furthermore, the converter is
costly as compared to other retrofit devices. As a result,
major socio-economic, political, and legal obstacles are
anticipated for this measure.
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - Since exhaust control devices
incorporating vacuum spark advance disconnect are already
required for these model years in the South Coast, San
Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins, it is not expected
that this measure will encounter any significant obstacles
to implementation. A rule must be written and passed by the
appropriate Air Pollution Control Board in each county, but
this will be, at most, a minor legal obstacle. VSAD is neither
costly or complicated, but it is effective and should meet a
minimum of social and political opposition.
Mass Transit - Mass transit improvements should meet no
institutional or legal obstacles, but there will .be
significant technical, political and socio-economic diffi-
culties to be overcome. Technical obstacles will involve
the system design and fare structure of the improvements, and
potential political opposition will emanate from those factions
who do not favor funding for this form of transportation.
Socio-economic obstacles will result from the actual design of
the system, and the funding mechanism for its institution.
-174-
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7.2 PHASE II MEASURES
1. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Any
additional controls on organic solvent use, such
as strengthening Rule 66, will encounter major
technical and political obstacles, and at least minor
institutional, legal, and socio-economic obstacles.
2. Elimination of Motorcycle Use During Smog Season -
This measure will encounter few, if any, technical
obstacles, but political and legal obstacles will be
quite significant, considering the popularity of motor-
cycles in California (especially during the summer) and
the potentially significant political strength of motor-
cycle manufacturers and enthusiasts. Socio-economic
obstacles will be at least minor, because of the
recreational and personal values of motorcycle riding,
and enforcement problems will provide at least minor
institutional problems.
3. Inspection/Maintenance for HDV - Inspection/maintenance
procedures for heavy duty vehicles have been developed
and tested in only a few areas of the country (New York
State, for example); the potential exists for major
technical obstacles to implementation in California.
Minor political, institutional, legal, and socio-
economic obstacles are also expected.
4. Retrofit Devices for HDV - Obstacles to implementation
of a retrofit program for heavy duty vehicles are expected
to be very similar to those described for inspection/
maintenance.
5. Gasoline Rationing - A large scale VMT reduction through
gasoline rationing will be extremely difficult to imple-
ment. Since nearly everyone will be affected, opposition
can be expected on all fronts. Due to the severity of the
measure, the political, institutional, and socio-economic
obstacles will be so great that they are likely to force a
reevaluation of the overall program objectives, and
constraints.
6. Evaporative Retrofit Device - Major technical, political,
legal, and socio-economic obstacles are anticipated for
implementation of and evaporative retrofit program.
Although devices for pre-1970 vehicles have not yet been
developed, it is expected that they will be costly compared
to the value of the vehicle and that installation will not
be simple.
7. Additional Retrofit Measures - It is expected that additional
retrofit measures beyond those specifically recommended in
this study will encounter major technical, political,
-175-
-------
institutional, legal, and socio-economic obstacles
during implementation. Most of these additional devices
are not cost-effective for application in this air basin
and will meet significant opposition.
-176-
-------
APPENDIX A
MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light
duty vehicles, heavy duty gasoline powered vehicles, heavy duty diesel
vehicles, and motorcycles. Base year emissions from these vehicle
types were estimated by determining the annual mileage by model year
of the region's vehicle population, the overall mileage traveled by
vehicles in the region, and then applying appropriate emission factors
which are attributable to the various vehicle age classifications.
Consider, for example, a region in which it is known that eight percent
of all light-duty vehicle travel is performed by cars of age three years,
that the total vehicle miles traveled in the region is five million miles
per year, and that the representative hydrocarbon exhaust emission factor for
three-year old cars in the region is 4.4 gm/mi. The hydrocarbon exhaust emis-
sion contribution by the three-year old light duty vehicle group is
(5,000,000) 4.4 (.08) x ~-- = 4822 total gm hydrocarbon
365 5^. - per day.
Subsequently, the total light duty emissions for the region may be
determined by performing the summation:
h+1
(VMT)n \"* e. m-n = total exhaust emissions
i=(n-12)
where VMT
VMT = total vehicle miles traveled in region for given
vehicle type (light duty, heavy duty, etc.). This
is determined from transportation study data.
e. = emission factor for itlh model year for pollutant p
p during calendar year n in a given region.
m. = weighted annual travel of the i;th_ model year vehicle
during calendar year n. (The determination of this
variable involves the use of the vehicle model year
distribution.)
The factor
e. is determined according to the relationship
A-l
-------
eipn ~ cip ipn sp
where
c. = the 1975 Federal test procedure emission rate for
p pollutant p (grams/mile) for the itj^ model year, at
low mileage. These values are available from Reference (1)
d. = the controlled vehicle pollutant p emission deterioration
1p factor for the ith model year at calendar year n. These
figures are available from Reference (1).
s = the speed adjustment factor for exhaust emission for
p pollutant p. This value is available from Reference (1)
when the average speed of vehicular travel is known.
The calculation of hydrocarbon emissions also involves evaporative
and crankcase hydrocarbon emission rates. These emissions are determined
in the same manner as exhaust emissions by using:
h+1
(VMT)n
1=(n-l2)
where,
h. = the combined evaporative and crankcase emission rate
for the ith model year,
m. = the weighted annual travel of the ith^model year during
calendar year n.
The numerical calculations required for estimation of total base year
emissions are carried out with the use of a computer program. Values for
h-, c. and d. are taken from Reference (1), and s , VMT, and m. are
determined from vehicle data for the region of interest.
A-2
-------
Projected vehicle emissions for the future years 1975, 1977, and
1980 are computed in the same manner as the base year emissions, utilizing
anticipated vehicle (VMT) growth rates and expected emission reduction
rates as determined from regional data and as provided by Reference (1).
The vehicle emissions which are anticipated in future years, based
on current scheduled emission control programs, forms the vehicle
"baseline emission" profile. The "baseline emissions" may be viewed,
therefore, as the nominal emissions which are projected to occur from the
base year (the year in which the maximum ambient pollution peak was
observed to occur) to the years 1975, 1977, and 1980. Baseline
emissions are calculated in terms of total hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide,
and nitrogen oxides. The calculation results for the various types of
vehicles are presented in Section 3.3.3 of the report.
Additional controls to reduce vehicle emissions below the baseline
emission profile are investigated by adjusting the appropriate mathe-
matical functions which reflect the type of proposed control. For example,
the effect of a catalytic converter retrofit on used light duty vehicles
is determined by adjusting the emission and deterioration factors for
those models to be retrofitted, and by carrying out the series of summations
in the computer model. If a program to bring about a reduction in total
VMT is to be evaluated, total emissions would be determined by applying
a proportion decrease in the baseline emissions.
The following sections describe the requirements for manipulation of
regional data preparatory to input to the computer model. Emissions are
calculated separately for light duty vehicles, heavy duty gasoline
powered vehicles, heavy duty diesel vehicles, and motorcycles.
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
Emissions from light duty vehicles were computed according to the
methodology discussed above. This necessitated the determination of
1) weighted annual travel by model year, 2) average vehicle speed in the
region, 3) emission factors by model year, 4) deterioration rates for
emission factors by model year, and 5) total VMT.
A-3
-------
Weighted Annual Travel
To determine the weighted annual travel of various model year
vehicles in the Sacramento Regional Area, the following vehicle distri-
butions were utilized:
1) Passenger car model year distribution
2) Annual mileage distribution by vehicle model year
The passenger car model year distribution was obtained from data supplied
by R. L. Polk and Company (2). This data lists registered passenger cars
by model, year, and by county as of July 1, 1972. The data does not
include pickups or light trucks. Passenger car registrations for 1972
models, as of the close of the calendar year of 1972, were estimated by
assuming sales of 72 model vehicles occurred at a steady rate until the
end of the model year (October, 1972), and by adjusting the Polk data
accordingly. Table 1 displays the Polk passenger car registration data
and the corresponding normalized distribution which was used as the
light duty vehicle model year distribution. It is assumed that this
distribution reflects very closely the true distribution by model year
of passenger cars actually traveling in the area, although it is recog-
nized that through-trips by cars registered outside the county may have
some influence. This effect is considered to be minor, particularly
in the Sacramento Regional Area, because through trips represent a small
fraction of the total vehicle mileage.
The annual mileage of the various model year vehicles is determined
from data compiled from the California Air Resources Board from results
of tests by the California Highway Patrol (3 ). The tests were conducted
between March 15 and May 30 of 1972. Odometer readings were recorded for
each of the model years. An average age was calculated for each of the
model years at the time of the test (for example, the average age of 1972
model cars at the mid-time of the test period was .28 years, the average
age of 1971 models was 1.06, of 1970 models 2.06, etc.) and plotted as a
function of the average odometer reading. The plot is then used to
tabulate odometer readings for the end of the year average ages of
A-4
-------
TABLE A-l. PASSENGER CAR MODEL DISTRIBUTION FOR SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA (AS OF DECEMBER 1972)
County
YUBA
SUITER
YOLO
SAC
EL DORADO
PLACER
%. of TOTAL
72
1051
1065
2428
23295
1162
2191
43000*
9.57
71
1678
1558
3373
28856
1660
2988
40113
8.93
70
1522
1566
3394
27864
1593
2924
38863
8.65
69
1545
1800
3645
29591
1781
3331
41693
9.28
68
1321
1647
3419
26907
1605
2998
37597
8.37
67
1163
1405
2961
23776
1437
2753
33495
7.46
CAR
66
1352
1517
3009
24938
1514
2866
35196
7.83
MODEL YEAR
65 64
1406
1647
3305
26267
1668
3126
37419
8.33
1300
1333
2822
23150
1393
2785
32783
7.30
63
1056
1107
2434
19392
1222
2318
27529
6.13
62
969
859
1913
14689
916
1764
21110
4.70
61
663
548
1241
9583
622
1124
1378!
3.07
60
611
470
1090
8161
532
978
10842
2.41
59
447
351
806
6069
377
744
8794
1.96
58
218
181
427
3267
237
424
4754
1.06
57
269
238
522
3538
255
496
5318
1.18
Prior
to 57
808
780
1631
11172
887
1685
16963
3.78
I
tn
* This is an adjusted value (was 31192) based on assumption that 1972 model cars are sold at constant linear rate throughout
the marketing season (terminating in October 1972).
SOURCE: R. L. Polk & Co., Compiled from Official State Records.
-------
vehicles (i.e., 1972 models have an average age of .75 years at the
close of 72, 1971 models are 1.75 years old, etc.). Table A-2 shows
a tabulation of odometer readings versus average vehicle age for
test data taken in the City of Sacramento. The difference in
TABLE A-2. DISTRIBUTION OF AVERAGE ANNUAL MILEAGE AND
CUMULATIVE MILEAGE BY VEHICLE AGE IN SACRAMENTO
(End of 1972)
Vehicle Age
.750
1.750
2.740
3.750
4.750
5.750
Odometer
12,000
26,500
39,000
51,000
61 ,500
68,000
Miles In
Preceeding Year
12,000
14,500
12,500
12,000
10,500
6,500
Source: Table I of Revision and Extension of Report, "Vehicle
Miles Driven per Year by Age of Vehicle," October 16,
1972. Memorandum to: G. C. Mass, Chief of Vehicle
Emission Control Program, from Ray Ingels, Air
Resources Board.
A-6
-------
odometer readings between successive model years is equivalent to the
miles driven-by each of the models in the past year (see Table A-2 ).
The mileage driven in the past calendar year versus the actual vehicle
age is plotted in Figure A-l . Since the Highway Patrol Tests entailed
only models of year 1966 and newer, the mileage driven in the past year
by older cars was assumed to be the same as that given for the statewide
(4)
average annual mileage compiled by the State Air Resource Boardv . The
contribution from new (1973) vehicles at the end of 1972 was neglected
in the analysis.
The weighted annual travel of the different model year light duty
vehicles was calculated by multiplying the vehicle model year distribution
by the model year annual vehicle mileage. These values are tabulated in
Table A-3.
Average Vehicle Speed in Region
The speed adjustment factor, used in the emission calculation, is
determined by the pollutant type and the average vehicle travel speed in
the region. The value is given by Figures 1,2, and 3 of Reference (1).
Emission and Deterioration Factors
The light duty vehicle emission rates must reflect the special case
in California where earlier and stricter emission standards have been
implemented. The essential elements of the California control program
include the following:
• Crankcase emission control on all new gasoline-powered vehicles.
• Exhaust emission standards on all new vehicles, both diesel and
gasoline powered. These controls will be increasingly stringent through
the 1975 model year. After 1975, all light duty vehicles must meet strict
Federal standards.
e Fuel evaporative emissions standards on 1970 and later model
gasoline-powered light duty vehicles, and 1973 and later heavy duty
vehicles.
• Assembly-line testing of all light duty vehicles to be sold in
California after January 31, 1973.
t Crankcase emission control devices required on 1955-63 model cars
upon transfer of ownership in 13 of the state's more populous counties.
A-7
-------
16
14
12
s.
(D
O)
01
c
•r*
"O
0)
0)
u
O)
S-
Q.
cn
0)
O)
u
•I—
JC
OJ
10
Sacramento Regional Area (3)
Statewide \\
Distribution (4)
_L
_L
6 8
Actual Vehicle Age
10
12
14
Figure A-l. Vehicle Miles Driven Per Year vs. Age of Vehicle
For Base Year 1972 - Sacramento Regional Area
(3) Revision and extension of report, "Vehicle Miles Driven per
Year by Age of Vehicle," October 16, 1972. Memorandum to
G. C. Mass, Chief of Vehicle Emission Control Program, from
Ray Ingels, Air Resources Board.
(4) "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory 1970-1980." Preliminary
Report, California Air Resources Board, February 16, 1973.
A-8
-------
TABLE A-3. WEIGHTED ANNUAL TRAVEL BY MODEL YEAR AND TOTAL ANNUAL TRAVEL FOR LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA FOR BASE YEAR 1972
Model Year
Vehicle
Age
Dist.
(a)
Total
Cars
(b)
Miles
Driven in
Freeeeding
Year
Weighted
Miles Driven
in preceeding
Year
Fraction of
Total of All
Vehicle
Mileage
Total VMT
in Preceeding
Year
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59 & Prior
TOTAL
9.57
8.93
8.65
9.28
8.37
7.46
7.83
8.33
7.30
6.13
4.70
3.07
2.41
7.97
100.00
55123
51436
49823
53452
48210
42969
45101
47980
42048
35308
27071
17684
13881
45907
575993
12000
15000
12500
12000
10500
6500
4200
3600
3600
3600
3600
3500
3500
. 3500
1152
1335
1088
1116
882
488
328
299
263
220
169
109
84
279
7812
.147
.171
.139
.143
.113
.062
.042
.038
.034
.028
.022
.014
.011
.036
1.000
6.615 x 108
7.715 x 108
6.228 x 108
6.414 x 108
5.062 x 108
2.793 x 108
6.894 x 108
1.727 x 108
1.514 x 108
1.271 x 108
9.746 x 107
6.189 x 107
4.858 x 107
1.607 x 108
4.492 x 109
10
a) Source: State Motor Vehicle Department registrations data for automobiles. The data was adjusted to include
light"duty cotmiercial vehicles not included in the "automobile* registrations.
b) Source: Reference (3) and (4).
-------
• Exhaust control devices required on 1955-65 model year light-
duty vehicles upon transfer of ownership in the South Coast, San Diego
and San Francisco Air Basins (the latter Basin after March 1, 1973).
These devices reduce emissions of hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen.
• Exhaust control devices for oxides of nitrogen will be required
on 1966-70 vehicles on an installation schedule starting February 1, 1973.
Exhaust emission factors for the light-duty vehicle population in
future years or the base year is dependent on the degree to which scheduled
emission control programs will have been implemented in the year being
considered.
Base year emission factors, by model and pollutant, were determined
from results of vehicle emission tests performed according to the 1972
Federal Certification Test Procedure. The exhaust emission factors are
shown in Table A-4 for the base year. Table A-5 is a tabulation of exhaust
TABLE A-4. CARBON MONOXIDE, HYDROCARBON, AND NITROGEN
OXIDES LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE EXHAUST EMISSION FACTORS FOR THE STATE OF
CALIFORNIA, BASE YEAR 1972.
Exhaust Emi ssion Factors at Low Mi leage (Grams/Mi )
Model Year
pre 1966
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
CO
87
51
50
46
39
36
34
19
Total Hydrocarbons
8.8
6.0
4.6
4.5
4.4
3.6
2.9
2.7
N°X
3.6
3.4
3.4
4.3
5.5
5.1
3.5
3.5
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency, October, 1972.
factors effective after July 1974, when used light-duty vehicles of the
model years 1966-1970 will have been equipped on schedule with exhaust
control devices for oxides of nitrogen. These factors are used
for calculation of projected baseline emissions.
Deterioration factors expressing the rate of increase of the
light duty vehicle emissions with model age, are available from
A-10
-------
Reference (1). These factors are taken to be constant for the base
year as well as the projected years (the operation of the VSAD add-on does
not exhibit a deteriorating characteristic).
TABLE A-5. CARBON MONOXIDE, HYDROCARBON, AND NITROGEN OXIDES
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE EXHAUST EMISSION FACTORS FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
EFFECTIVE AFTER JULY, 1974
Exhaust Emission Factors at Low Mileaqe (Grams/Mi)
Model Year
pre 1966
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 and later
CO
87
35.2
34.5
31.7
26.9
24.8
34
19
19
19
4.8
1.8
Total Hydrocarbons
8.8
5.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
.5
.23
NOx
3.6
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.9
2.7
3.5
3.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
.31
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency, October, 1972.
The values above are adjusted to reflect the VSAD device
scheduled for installation on model 1966-1970 light-duty
vehicles by July 1974. It also reflects a recent revision
in standards requirements for CO and total hydrocarbons.
for 1975 model vehicles.
Reduction of emissions attributed to the VSAD Installation
were determined from direct communication with the EPA
District 9 Office, as were the revised emission standards
for 1975 model vehicles.
Crankcase and evaporative emission factors are given in Table A-6
and apply for both the base year and projected years. These values
reflect the California standards for evaporative emissions and crankcase
emission control.
The emission values are given for low mileage non-deteriorated
vehicle operation. Deterioration factors by model year and pollutant
are used to account for the aging or deterioration of exhaust emission
control devices. The deterioration factors also reflect the special
A-ll
-------
case in California where earlier promulgation of emission standards
occurred.
TABLE A-5. LIGHT DUTY CRANKCASE AND EVAPORATIVE HYDROCARBON
EMISSIONS BY MODEL YEAR IN CALIFORNIA
BASE YEAR AND PROJECTED YEARS
Model Year
pre 1960
1961-1963
1964-1967
1968-1969
1970-1971
1972
1973 on
LDV Hydrocarbons
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
.5
.2
.2
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency. October, 1972.
The values extracted from this document were adjusted to
reflect the installation of PCV crankcase devices on pre-
1963 vehicles. The emission factor of 3.0 was obtained
by communication with the EPA Region 9 Office. .
Note: The factors above reflect the California standards for
fuel evaporative emissions on 1970 and later light-duty
vehicles. They also reflect crankcase emission control on
all vehicles.
Total VMT
Total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the region is determined
either from: 1) calculation of the product of total registered vehicles
by model year and VMT per year by model, or 2) transportation studies per-
formed in the area. The calculation of VMT from model year and VMT distribution
is shown in Table A-3. VMT estimates based on studies performed by the
Division of Highways were considered to be the most valid input for VMT(8).
These figures were available from the Sacramento Area Transportation Study
which includes 91.6 percent of all the vehicle registrations in the study
area of this report. The source VMT data were adjusted accordingly,
therefore, to reflect an 8.4 percent larger VMT. These VMT values were
then used in calculation of total emissions from light-duty vehicles in
the Sacramento Regional Area.
A-12
-------
Computer Calculation of Emissions
The parameters of the foregoing discussion are determined in the
context of a specified pollutant, emission type (exhaust, evaporative,
or crankcase), and year n, and inserted in the relation
sp
-------
FIGURE A-2. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA ESTIMATED
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN 1972
YE-AR
1S72
1971
197C
1 9 fc 9
l^tB
19 c /
1966
1965
1964
1963
1 9 6 2
1961
1 9 L C
1 9 i; <5
Ci
2 .
2.
3.
4.
•'».
4.
6 .
ti .
8.
a.
«? .
a.
r).
6.
P
70
90
60
40
50
6C
JO
3C
80
a 0
Ru
30
•J,o
80 •
C
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
i
1
1
1
1
1
ipn
.00
.05
. 10
. 1 rt
. 23
. 15
.30
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
min
. 152
. 177
.142
. 132
. 103
.064
.043
.040
.C35
.029
. 022
.014
.Cii
.037
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
hi
.20
.50
.30
.CO
. CO
.CO
.CO
.00
.CO
.CO
.CO
.CO
.00
.cc
SP
.64
.64
.64
.64
.64
.64
.64
.64
.64
. .64
.64
.64
.64
.64
TOTAL
t)A!LY
TOTAL
TOTAL
H SPftD •= 37. 8J
YOnCC^HON E/HftUSl tr'ISSIUNS = 3.27 G/M
RAiviKCASt AND EVAH LLibFS = 1.78 G/M
= t>.C5 G/M
VtHICLE MLES T!i)N EMISSIONS = 294o6.35
Gi\ EfMSSIQNS = 80.73
N4LES
TONS
TONS
-------
_ . FIGURE A-3. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA ESTIMATED
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN 1972
Ul
YEAR
1972
1971
197C
1969
19 6 e
1967
1966
1965
1964
19£3
1962
1961
I960
19 bS
ip
19.00
34. OC
36.00
39.00
46.00
5 C . 0 0
5 I. 00
3 7 . 0 0
67.0 0
87.00
87.00
rt / .00
67.00
87.00
dipn
I. 00
1.18
1.32
1.59
1.47
1.35
1.29
1.00
1.00
1.00
I. 00
1.00
1.00
1.00
min
. 152
.177
. U2
. 132
. 103
.C64
.043
.040
.C35
.C29
.C22
.014
.€11
.C37"
SP
.57
.57
. 57
.57
.57
.57
.57
.57
.57
.57
.57
.57
.57
.57
AVFRAGI- SPhEU = 37.30
CARBCN ^.UNilXlCb t-NISSIU-NS = 31.66 G/M
JAILY VEHICLE F^ILES TRAVELl.tD = 14503.90 TH'JUSAND MILES
TOTAL YEARLY CAH8CN MQI-JUXIDE EMISSIONS = 164775.95 TUNS
UiTAL DAILY CAKbUN MUNuXIUE tMSSIUsMS = 506.24 TUNS
-------
FIGURE A-4. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA ESTIMATED
NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS FROM LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN 1972
YEAR
1972
1971
197C
1969
1960
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
19oi
1960
1959
c
ip
3.50
1.50
5.10
5.50
4.30
'» f. i"\
J * "T 1J
3.40
3.60
3.60
3.60
3.60
3 . ^ 0
3.60
3.60
H
aipn
1.00
1.11
I. 00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
I. 00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
in.
in
. 152
. 177
. 142
. 132
. 10'3
.064
.C43
.040
.035
.C29
.022
.014
.01 1
.03 7
s
P
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
SPEED = 37.80
M CXIOES tMlSSIUN$.= t>.OO G/M
IJAILY VEHICLb MLES Ti-'AVELLtC = 14503.90
TOTAL YE43LY MTftObFN JX i CF S FMISSIUNS =
FUTAL CAILY MTRUGBM flXIOLS EMISSIUNS =
THOUSAND MILES
29520.07 TONS
80.83 TONS
-------
Projected Emissions in Future Years
The calculation of emissions for future years involves a projection
of deterioration factors, emission factors, and weighted annual vehicle
travel for future model vehicles, and VMT and average traffic speed in the
future years are estimated by considering vehicle controls which are
scheduled for future implementation, and adjusting the factors accordingly.
Since regional projections of vehicle model year distribution and annual
mileage by model are not available, the weighted annual vehicle travel
distribution for future years was assumed to remain unchanged from that
presently used. It is noted that rather constant historical patterns in
motor vehicle sales justify this assumption as a feasible estimate. Pro-
jected VMT and average traffic speeds are available from transportation
studies conducted by the Station Division of Highways. This information
has been tabulated and is shown in Table A-7.
Baseline emission calculation results are presented in Section 3.2.3
of this report.
Control Measures
Three vehicle emission control measures were investigated for their
impact on total light-duty vehicle emissions. These were 1) a retrofit
(by 1975) of 20 percent of 1966-1970 model light-duty vehicles, and 75 per-
cent of 1971-1974 model light-duty vehicles, with an oxidizing catalytic con-
verter, 2) a retrofit (by 1975) of all 1955-1965 light-duty vehicles with a
spark advance disconnect (VSAD), and 3) an inspection and maintenance idle
test program for all light-duty vehicles. The anticipated emission reduct-
ions expected for those vehicles targeted for catalytic converter instal-
lations is 50 percent for total hydrocarbons and CO, and zero percent for
nitrogen oxides(15). The VSAD retrofit is expected to provide a 12 percent
reduction in hydrocarbons, 31 percent in CO, and 48 percent in NO . The
A
inspection/maintenance idle test program is expected to provide a six per-
cent reduction in total hydrocarbons and a three percent reduction in
carbon monoxide(15). These reductions are based on an expected ten percent
initial failure rate occurring during the idle test inspection. The subse-
quent mandatory maintenance of the vehicles found to be in violation would
result in the stated emission reductions.
A-17
-------
TABLE A-7. SUMMARY OF VEHICULAR TRAVEL
SACRAMENTO TRANSPORTATION STUDY AREA
Vehicle Type
Light duty vehicles
Heavy duty vehicles
Total, LDV & HDV
Average Speed, MPH
1972
13,282,000
798,000
14,080,000
37.8
Vehicle Mi
1975
15,070,000
930,000
16,000,000
38.2
les of Travel
1977
16,290,000
1,010,000
17,300,000
38.9
1980
18,050,000
1,150,000
19,200,000
40.0
Source: "SATS Base Year Report," Sacramento Transportation Study, State
of California, Division of Highways, March 1971.
"SATS 1980 Progress Report, Sacramento Transportation Study,
Preliminary Draft, State of California, Division of Highways,
District 3, March 1972
Notes: Values derived from the sources above reflect a study area
slightly smaller than that specified for the overall analysis
of this report. An 8.4% increase in VMT was applied to above
figures prior to calculating vehicle emission inventories.
A-18
-------
The overall impact of these three control measures on the baseline
emission values are computed by applying the reduction factors to the ap-
propriate model year emission factors. The results are summarized in Section
3.2.3.
HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE POWERED VEHICLE EMISSIONS
Heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicle emissions are calculated using the
same procedure as that for light-duty vehicle emissions.
Emission and Deterioration Factors
Heavy-duty vehicle emission rates reflect the special case in California
where earlier and stricter standards have been implemented.
Exhaust emission factors are given in Table A-8.
TABLE A-8. HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLE EXHAUST
EMISSION FACTORS, CALIFORNIA ONLY
lodel Year
pre-1970
1970-1971
1972
1973-1974
1975
Carbon Monoxide
Gms/Mi
140
130
130
130
81
Exhaust Hydrocarbons
Gms/Mi
17
16
13
13
4.1
Nitrogen Oxides
Gms/Mi
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.2
2.8
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission
Estimation," prepared by Kircher and Armstrong,
Environmental Protection Agency, October 1972.
A-19
-------
Crankcase and evaporative emission rates are shown in Table A-9 .
TABLE A-9 . HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLE CRANKCASE AND
EVAPORATIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS BY MODEL YEAR FOR CALIFORNIA
Model Year
pre 1960
1961-1963
1964-1967
1968-1969
1970-1971
1972
1973 on
Hydrocarbons,
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
.8
(Gms/Mi)
Source: "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation",
Prepared by Kircher and Armstrong, Environmental Protection
Agency, October, 1972.
The values extracted from this document were adjusted to
reflect the installation of PCV crankcase devices on pre-
1963 vehicles. The emission factor 3.0 was obtained by
communication with the EPA Region 9 Office.
Due to a lack of actual heavy-duty deterioration information, light-
duty deterioration values are used for controlled heavy-duty vehicles, with
control by model year offsets. (1968 light duty figures are used for 1973
and later controlled heavy duty vehicles). The deterioration factors are
tabulated from the light-duty deterioration tables of Reference (1).
Heavy Duty Vehicle Speed and VMT
Average speed and heavy-duty vehicle VMT data are available from
transportation studies conducted by the State Division of Highways (8).
Table A-7 of the previous section gives the breakdown of heavy-duty VMT and
speed for the base year and projected years in the Sacramento Regional Study
Area. The speed emission adjustment factor is determined using the same
technique as for light duty vehicles.
Model Year Distribution
The heavy-duty vehicle model year distribution was determined from
published vehicle registration data from the Department of Motor Vehicles (13)
This vehicle data is segregated in terms of automobiles and commercial
vehicles. While the commercial vehicle tabulation was known to include a
A-20
-------
large number of light-duty vehicles, such as pickups and vans (and also
includes diesel-powered trucks), it's model year distribution was
considered to be representative for all heavy-duty vehicle distribution.
Table A-10 contains the commercial vehicle model distribution for the year
1972. The distribution is calculated for statewide values since a
distribution is not available for the particular region under consideration,
The annual mileage distribution of heavy-duty gasoline powered
vehicles is shown in Table A-10. The distribution is obtained from the
publication "1971 Motor Truck Facts"(l2). Weighted annual travel by model
is determined as indicated in Table A-10 also.
Heavy duty vehicle mileage data must be manipulated to segregate
diesel from gasoline powered motive types (diesel-powered trucks average
greater annual mileage and emit at different rates than gasoline-powered
trucks). Based on the Motor Vehicle Department Gross Report(6), it is
determined that 225,653 vehicles were registered as vehicles rated over
6,000 pounds (or "heavy-duty") at the end of 1972. Of these vehicles,
66,970 are diesel-powered. Additional information from Motor Vehicle
Statements of transactions(16) shows another 14,000 diesel vehicles were
exempt from state registration (state, county, or government-operated
vehicles). It was therefore estimated that a.proportionate number
225'653 = 47'172) (12)
of unlimited heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicles fell within this
category.
Those vehicles which come from out-of-state, yet perform their
travel within California boundaries, account for 28,000 more commercial
vehicles, of which 50 percent are assumed to be diesels. Consequently,
total heavy-duty diesel vehicles in California (end of 1972) total
94,800, and all heavy-duty vehicles (gasoline and diesel) total 300,825.
Hence 68.5 percent of all heavy-duty vehicles are gasoline-powered.
The foregoing relationships were used to adjust the State Motor
Vehicle registration data to determine the gasoline-powered heavy-duty
vehicle population model distribution. Total regional VMT was then
calculated as shown on Table A-ll-
A-21
-------
TABLE A-10. COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MODEL YEAR DISTRIBUTION
California, 1972
Model Year
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59 & Prior
TOTAL
Total
Registered
Commercial
Vehicle (a)
182609
159155
149022
162294
142569
110410
119853
116632
111162
90743
70534
53385
59446
395488
1923302
Fraction
of
Total
Vehicles
.0950
.0827
.0775
.0844
.0741
.0574
.0623
.0606
.0578
.0472
.0367
.0278
.0309
.2056
1.00
Miles(b)
Driven
in
Preceeding
Year
7500
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
Weighted
Miles
Driven in
Preceeding
Year
713
827
775
844
741
574
623
606
578
472
367
278
309
2056
9763
Fraction of
Total of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.073
.0847
.0794
.0864
.0758
.0587
.0638
.062
.0592
.0483
.0375
.0284
.0316
.2105
r>o
rv>
(a) Department of Motor Vehicles, California.
January 10, 1973.
(b) "1971 Motor Truck Facts"
Registrations for commercial vehicles as of
-------
TABLE A-ll. VMT FOR HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE POWERED VEHICLES (FOR BASE YEAR 1972)
Sacramento Regional Area
Model
Year
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59 & Prior
TOTAL
Vehicle
Model
Distribution
.0950
.0827
.0775
.0844
.0741
.0574
.0623
.0606
.0578
.0472
.0367
.0278
.0309
.2056
(B)
Total
Vehicles
1194
1040
974
1061
932
722
783
762
727
593
461
350
389
2585
12573(a)
(C)
VMT
per
Vehicle
in Preceeding/.N
Year lb;
7500
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
B x C
Total VMT in
Preceeding Year
8.955 x 106
1.04 x 107
9.74 x 106
1.061 x 107
9.32 x 106
7.22 x 106
7.83 x 106
7.62 x 106
7.27 x 106
5.93 x 106
4.61 x 106
3.50 x 106
3.89 x TO6
2.585 x 107
1.22745 x 108
ro
CO
(.a) ^Source: State Motor Vehicle Department registrations data for commercial vehicles, and Gross
The Commercial Vehicle total for this region was adjusted to reflect only heavy duty
which are gasoline powered.
(b) "1971 Motor Truck Facts," Automobile Manufacturer's Association, Inc.
Report.
vehicles
-------
This value of VMT was then related to that calculated for diesel
powered heavy-duty vehicles (see following section) to establish the
portion of all heavy-duty VMT (as given by transportation studies in
the region) which is diesel or gasoline powered. Using this approach,
it was determined that gasoline powered heavy-duty vehicles account for
39.3 percent of all heavy-duty travel miles. This percentage (assumed
to be the same in future years) was then applied to VMT estimates for
the area, given only in terms of either light or heavy-duty mileage,
to establish the miles driven by the gasoline heavy-duty vehicles.
Subsequently, this value was incorporated with other pertinent vehicle
data (discussed earlier in this section) to calculate baseline emissions.
The results of these computations are presented in Section 3.3.3.
Heavy-Duty Diesel Powered Vehicles
Emissions resulting from operation of heavy-duty diesel powered
vehicles are calculated in a similar manner as gasoline powered heavy-
duty vehicles.
Emission factors for uncontrolled diesel powered heavy-duty
vehicles are available from Table 3-2 of EPA Document AP-42 (7). These
factors apply to vehicles prior to 1975 models. In 1975 and thereafter,
new standards apply. The new standards will limit diesel exhaust emission
to 1.05 gm total hydrocarbons per mile, and 2.270 gm CO per mile.
Evaporative and crankcase emissions for diesels are considered negligible
in the totals.
The effect of deterioration on exhaust emissions from diesel vehicles
is considered negligible.
Total VMT is calculated as shown in Table A-12. The value is related
to that calculated for heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicle VMT in order
to determine the portion of total heavy-duty VMT each vehicle motive-type
accounts for. This ratio is computed because VMT data (to be used in
emission calculations) is expressed as overall mileage by all heavy-duty
VMT which is generated by diesel type vehicles. The result is that
60.7 percent of all heavy-duty travel is performed by diesels. This
value is assumed to remain constant in future years.
A-24
-------
TABLE-A-12. VMT FOR HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL POWERED VEHICLES (Calculated)
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
ro
UJ
Base Year
1972
Model
Year
1972 & 1971
Vehicle
Model
Distribut.
.105
(a)
1970 and prior .895
TOTAL
B
Total
Vehicles
607
5,176
5,783
(b)
VMT per
Vehicle in
Preceding Year
14,000
35,000
/ }
R X C
Total VMT in
Preceding Year
8.498 X 10
181.16 X 10
189.6 X 10
6
^'Vehicle model distribution assumed same as for heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicles.
^
(c)
Source: State Motor Vehicle Department registrations data for numerical vehicles, and Gross Report.
This vehicle data for Sacramento region was adjusted to reflect only heavy-duty vehicles
which are diesel-powered.
Source: Reference (4).
-------
Table A-13 demonstrates the organization of pertinent data and
calculations required to obtain the baseline hydrocarbon emissions.
Projected emissions are calculated based on VMT .predictions for heavy-
duty VMT provided by Highway Transportation Studies (8). Computations
of baseline CO and NO emissions were carried out in the same fashion
A
and are given in Section 3.3.3.
Motorcycle Emissions
Baseline motorcycle emissions, for reactive hydrocarbons, are
computed as illustrated in Table A-14 and Table A-15. The motorcycle
population is segregated into two classifications: two-stroke
motorcycles, and four-stroke motorcycles. Two-stroke motorcycles
constitute 38 percent of the statewide population of licensed motorcycles(9)
The overall motorcycle population for a given region is determined from
Motor Vehicle Department registration data(14). Projected cycle popu-
lation in future years is determined by a mathematical correlation of
cycles with projected personal income in the region (see Appendix E).
Neither the projected nor the present population figures reflect the
unlicensed off-road motorcycles, which number approximately one-third of
the registered motorcycle population (17). Off-road motorcycles were
eliminated from the emission analysis, however, as it was felt that their
remote operation in rural areas plays a negligible role in the total air
pollution problem.
Emission factors for two-stroke and four-stroke motorcycles were
derived from the seven-mode test procedure of California, and are given
in Reference (4). Exhaust, crankcase, and evaporative emission factors
were combined together since it was known that the rigor of maintaining
separate computations for the emission category would have a minor
effect on the outcome of reactive hydrocarbon emissions, and have no
effect on CO or NO (crankcase and evaporative losses represent
J\
hydrocarbon emissions only). This is true for the case of reactive
hydrocarbons because: 1) The crankcase and evaporative emissions are
relatively small in comparison to exhaust emissions, and 2) the
reactive factors for crankcase, evaporative, and exhaust hydrocarbons
are not substantially different (10).
A-26
-------
TABLE A-13. HEAVY DUTY DIESEL VEHICLE REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
Year Model
Considered Year
1972 73 & 72
70 &
prior
1975 76 & 75
75 &
prior
1977 78 & 77
76 & 75
75 &
prior
1980 81 & 80
79 —75
74 &
prior
(B)
(A) Annual
% of VMT
Total , x per , »
Models^ Vehicle13'
.105
.895
.105
.895
.105
.168
.727
.105
.380
.515
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
A x B
Weighting
Factor for
VMT per Year
1,470
31,325
32,795
1,470
31,325
1,470
5,880
25,445
32,795
1,470
13,300
18,025
% of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.044
.955
.044
.955
.044
.179
.775
.044
.405
.549
(D)
Hydrocarbon
(C) Emission.
VMT Factor (c
per Day gm/mi
23,729
515,031
539,300(b)
27,654
600,217
628,500(b)
30,030
122,167
528,937
682,500(b)
34,214
314,928
426,902
777,600(b)
3.36
3.36
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
(C)
Conversion
Factor x
i Reactivity
Factor
1.10xl66x.99(d)
1.10xl66x.99(d)
1.10xl06x.99(d)
1.10xl66x.99(d)
1.10xl66x.99(d)
1.10xl66x.99(d)
1.10xl66x.99(d)
1.10xl06x.99(d)
1.10xl66x.99(d)
1.10xl66x.99(d)
(CxDxC)
Emissions
tons/day
.087
1.903
1.990
.031
2.218
2.249
.034
" .141
1.954
2.129
.039
.363
1.577
1.979
ro
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Calculated in Table (1).
Total VMT based on transportation studies by
vehfcles and must be adjusted (60.7% diesel)
EPA preliminary issue of emission factors to
.99 = reactivity factor obtained from verbal
Division of Highways (8). These values are in
to reflect only diesel population.
be incorporated in revision of EPA document AP-
communication with EPA (10).
terms of all heavy
42(7).
duty
-------
TABLE A-14. MOTORCYCLE (2 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON BASELINE EMISSIONS
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
Year
1972
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ »
Population1 ;
12,952
19,212
23,538
29,304
(B)
Miles ,.,
per YearVD;
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor, x
gm/mi v ;
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor^
.96
.96
.96
.96
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
51.9 x 106
76.8 x 106
94.2 x 106
117 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
2.3
3.4
4.2
5.2
Js
CO
(a) Based on MVD data (14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972.
Southwest Research Institute (11).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crackcase, and .3b evaporative emissions (4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 2 stroke motorcycles constitute 38% of cycle population (9).
-------
TABLE A-15. MOTORCYCLE (4 STROKE) REACTIVE HYDROCARBON BASELINE EMISSIONS
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
Year
1972
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ »
Population^
21,131
31,345
38,406
47,811
(B)
Miles /. %
per Year^D;
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor/ *
gm/mi ( '
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10'9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10'9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor(d)
.86
.86
.86
.86
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
84.5 x 106
125 x 106
154 x 106
191 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.2
(a) Based on MVD data (14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) "Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles," January 15, 1972.
Southwest Research Institute (11).
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crackcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (4).
(d) Private communication with EPA, during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 4 stroke motorcycles constitute 62% of cycle population (9).
-------
Since exhaust emissions from motorcycles are uncontrolled, and no
controls are scheduled, the effect of deterioration on exhaust emissions
was considered negligible.
The miles driven per year was estimated to be the same for all models
at 4,000 (11), and was assumed to remain unchanged in future years.
Based on the information above, two-stroke and four-stroke motorcycle
n'ons were computed for the case of hydrocarbon,
The overall results are tabulated in Section 3.2.3.
emissions were computed for the case of hydrocarbon, CO, and NO pollutants,
/\
A-30
-------
References:
(1) From "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation,"
prepared by David S. Kircher and Donald P. Armstrong. Environmental
Protection Agency, October 1972.
(2) National Vehicle Registration Service. Passenger Cars in Operation
as of July 1, 1972. R. L. Polk & Co., Compilation from Official
State Records.
(3) Revision and Extension of Report "Vehicle Miles Driven per Year by
Age of Vehicle," October 16, 1972. Memorandum to G. C. Mass, Chief
of Vehicle Emission Control Program, from Ray Ingels, Air Resources Board.
(4) "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory 1970-1980." Preliminary Report,
California Air Resources Board, February 16, 1973.
(5) National Academy of Sciences," Semiannual Report by the Committee
on Motor Vehicle Emissions of the National Academy of Sciences to
the Environmental. Protection Agency," January 1, 1972.
(6) State of California Department of Motor Vehicles Statistical Record
on Motive Power Body Type and Weight Divisions for Automobiles,
Motorcycles, Commercial Trucks and Trailers. January 1 to December
31, 1972, Gross Report.
(7) Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, February 1972.
(8) SATS Base Year Report, Sacramento Area Transportation Study, State
of California, Division of Highways, District 3, March 1971.
SATS 1980 Progress Report, Sacramento Area Transportation Study,
Preliminary Draft, State of California, Division of Highways,
District 3, March 1972.
(9) Automotive Engineering, "Small Engine Emissions and Their Impact",
April 1972. •
(10) Private communication with EPA. Preliminary reactivity factors for
motorcycle and diesel hydrocarbon emissions.
(11) Emission Factors and Impact Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled
Engines and Motorcycles, January 15, 1972 - Southwest Research
Institute.
(12) 1971 Motor Truck Facts, Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc.
(13) California Department of Motor Vehicles, AMIS Status as of
January 10, 1973. 1972 Registrations.
(14) State of California Department of Motor Vehicles, Robert Cozens,
Director. Number of Vehicles Registered 1 January through
31 December 1972.
A-31
-------
References: (Continued)
(15) "Title 40 - Protection of Environment", Chapter 1, "Requirements
for Preparation, Adoption, and Subrtrittal of Implementation Plans."
Environmental Protection Agency, April 17, 1973.
(16) "Statement of Transactions and Total Fees Collected," State Motor
Vehicle Department, January 1973.
(17) "Uncontrolled Vehicle Emission Study for The California Air Resources
Board," Interim Report, Automotive Environmental Systems, Inc.
A-32
-------
APPENDIX B
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
Environmental pollution resulting from aircraft emissions was
investigated by considering contributions from four types of aviation
prevalent in the Sacramento Regional Area. These are: commercial, non-
commercial, and military. Present day emissions from these aviation
types were computed by determining the frequency of landing and takeoff
operations for specific aircraft classifications (i.e., piston* medium-
range jet, etc.), and applying appropriate emission factors which are
attributed to these operations. Projected emissions for the future years
of 1975, 1977, and 1980 were computed in the same fashion, utilizing
aviation growth rates and expected emission reduction rates as determined
from regional data and as provided by the EPA.
General Approach
The basic equation used for calculating aircraft emissions of total
hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen for a specific
aircraft class is as follows:
Emissions of a Specific Pollutant
Emission factor for Number of engines on Number of LTD
the aircraft class aircraft in the class cycles performed by
the aircraft class
Emission factors are documented by the EPA (4) in terms of pounds
of pollutant emitted per engine per Landing Takeoff (LTD) cycle and are
presented in Table B-l. If types of aircraft within a class have different
numbers of engines, an average number for the class may be used, or the LTO
for the class may be segregated according to engine number.
The number of LTO cycles performed by each type of aircraft within
a region must be known or estimated for the base year associated with that
region. The aircraft classes designated by EPA are shown in Table B-2.
One special case of base year emission calculations differs from EPA
emission factor documentation. This special case involves Aircraft
Class 3 only, and results from the fact that aircraft in this class
(primarily Boeing 727's, 737's, and Douglas DC-9's) underwent a burner
can retrofit program from 1970 to 1972. Although the object of this
program was to reduce the exhaust, smoke from, these aircraft, additional
B-l
-------
TABLE B-l . EMISSION FACTORS PER LANDING-TAKEOFF CYCLE FOR AIRCRAFT
(Lbs/Engine and Kg/Engine)
Aircraft Class
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total Hydrocarbons
Lb
12.2
41.2
4.9a
2.9
3.6
1.1
0.40
40.7
.52
2.7
9.93
20.4
Kg
5.5
18.7
2.2a
1.3
1.6
.5
.18
18.5
.24
1.2
4.5
9.3
Carbon Monoxide
Lb
46.8
47.4
20. Oa
6.6
15.8
3.1
12.2
304.0
5.7
5.7
15.1
152.0
Kg
21.2
21.5
9.0a
3.0
7.17
1.4
5.5
138.0
2.6
2.6
6.85
69.0
Nitrogen Oxides
Lb
31.4
7.9
10. 2a
2.5
1.6
1.2
0.047
.40
.57
2.2
3.29
.20
Kg
14.2
3.6
4.6a
1.1
.73
.54
.021
.18
.26
1.0
1 .49
.09
DO
I
ro
a This value describes emissions prior to burner can retrofit.
Source: "Aircraft" - Revision to AP-42, Environmental Protection Agency, 1973
-------
TABLE B-2. EPA AIRCRAFT CLASSIFICATION
Aircraft
Class
[ Number
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8,
9
10
1 O
12
Aircraft
Class
Name
Jumbo Jet
Long Range Jet
Medium Range Jet
A1r Carrier
Turboprop
Business Jet
General Aviation
Turboprop
General Aviation
Piston
Piston Transport
Helicopter
Military Transport
M-i 1 -i + avw !•+•
m 1 i tary oet
Military riston
Example Aircraft
and Number of
Events
Boeing 747 (4)
Lockheed L-1011 (3)
McDonald Douglas DC-10
(3)
Boeing 707 (4)
McDonald Douglas DC-8
(4)
Boeing 737, 727
McDonald Douglas DC-9
(2)
Convair 580; (2)
Electra L-188 (4)
Fairchild Hiller
FH-227 (2)
Lockheed Jetstar (2)
Cessna 210 (1)
Piper 32-300 (1)
Douglas DC-6 (4)
CONV 440 (2)
Sikorsky S-61 (2)
Vertol 107 (2)
Lockhead (C-130)
(4)
Engines Most
Commonly Used
Pratt & Witney
JT-9D
Pratt & Witney
JT-3D
Pratt & Witney
JT-8D
Allison 501 -Dl 3
General Electric
CJ610
Pratt & Witney
JT-12A
Pratt & Witney
PT-6A
Teledyne-Contin-
ental 0-200
Lycoming 0-320
Pratt & Witney
R-2800
General Electric
CT-58
Alliston T56A7
(T-PROP)
finnpral FT prtvi r
J-79
Continental J-69
C\ IV't'l CC-LJv*! flht
R-1820
Source: "Aircraft" - Revision to AP-42, Environmental
Protection Agency, 1973.
B-3
-------
effects were the reduction of hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions,
and the increase of oxides of nitrogen emissions. The emission factors
before and after the program were as follows (1):
Pre-retrofit
Post-retrofit
THC
4.9 Ib/engine/LTO
3.5 Ib/engine/LTQ
CO
20.0 Ib/engine/LTO
17.0 Ib/engine/LTO
NOX
10.2 Ib/engine/LTO
12.2 Ib/engine/LTO
It was assumed, for simplicity, that the program proceeded at a constant
rate through the three year period. Thus, in mid-year 1970, for example,
the program was 1/6 complete, and the average emission factors for this
base year were:
THC: 4.9 Ib/engine/LTO - 1/6 x (4.9 - 3.5) Ib/engine/LTO = 4.7 Ib/engine/LTO
CO: 20.0 - 1/6 x (20.0 - 17.0) = 19.5
NOX: 10.2 - 1/6 x (10.5 - 12.2) = 10.5
The emission factors for all three base years of concern in this study
are given in Table B-3 for Class 3 aircraft.
TABLE B-3. EMISSION FACTORS FOR CLASS 3 AIRCRAFT
Pollutant
THC
CO
NOV
x
(Units: Ib/engine/LTO)
1970
4.7
19.5
10.5
1971
4.2
18.5
11.2
1972
3.7
17.5
11.9
The equations and data used for projecting aircraft emissions to
1975, 1977, and 1980 are shown in Table B-4. The reader will note that
this table does not include information for military aircraft. In
some cases, growth data was obtained for particular military air bases;
in most cases, however, insufficient data was available for reasonably
accurate projections of military aircraft emissions, and operations
growth and emission reduction effects in future years were ignored.
B-4
-------
TABLE B-4. DATA FOR COMPUTATION OF PROJECTED CIVIL AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
CD
I
cn
Projected Growth.
G(Fraction Increase of Base Year Fleet
Aircraft Engine Emission Equations
Class Life! L (»r) E (tons/fr) B.Y.: '70 '71 '72 '78 8
1. Jumbo Jet 15 E?5 - ERt (1+G)
E77 * EB» (U6I
E78 ' EBY <'«> .
E«0 ' E78 "•* "•R) " R ' C "
2. Long Range Jet 15 E75 - ERY (!•€) (I-R)
£„ • E(Y (1«S) (1-R)
E7B • E,, (1«) (1-1)
E80 " E78 "** (1'") ' " ( C "
3. Median Range Jet 15 E;5 - Eg< (I«S) (1-R)
£„ • E,Y (1«) (1-R)
E78 ' EBY "rt> ('-«'
£,„ • £„ (1« (1-R) - R ( f- ))
4. Air Carrier 15 (Sec Class 1)
5. Business Jet 15 (Sec Class 1)
6. General Aviation 15 (Sec Class 1)
Turboprop
7. General Aviation 20 (See Class 1)
Piston
8. Piston Transport 20 (Sec Class 1)
9. Helicopter* 15 (Sec Class 1)
a It Is assumed that all have turbine engines.
.51
.78
.92
•
-.11
-.11
-.10
-
.51
.78
.92
-
-.50
-1.00
-1.00
.96
1.40
1.63
-
.96
1.40
1.63
-
.39
.53
.60
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
.52
.71
.83
.42
.68
.82
-
-.13
-.13
-.12
.42
.68
.82
-
-.50 , -
-i.oo-'-oo
-1.00
.68
1.10
1.30
-
.68
1.10
1.30
-
.31
.45
.52
-1.00 -1
-1.00 -1
-1.00 -1
.38
.57
.66
-
28
51
63
.14
11
11
11
0
28
51
63
.14
50
.
42
77
95
.18
42'
77
95
.18
24
37
43
.09
00
00
00
24
41
49
.11
Emission Reductions. R (Fraction af Base Year Emissions}
KC _ CO Mt
V.T '70 '71 '72 "'78 '70 '71 '72 '78 '70 '71 '72 '78
000-
000-
000-
0.70
•0.06 0.06 0.06
0.33 0.33 0.33
0.39 0.39 0.39
0.70
0.26 0.17 0.05
0.26 0.17 0.05
0.26 0.17 0.05
0.70
(Sec Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(see Class 1)
000-
000-
000-
0.50
-
- ...
-
(Sec Class 1)
000- 000-
000- 000-
000T 000-
0.60 . - - 0
0.015 0.015 0.015 - (See Class 1)
0.077 0.077 0.077
0.093 0.093 0.093
0.60
0.13 O.OB 0.03 - -0.03 -0.09 -0.16
0.13 0.08 0.03 - -0.03 -0.09 -0.16
0.13 0.08 0.03 - -0.03 -0.09 -0.16
0.60 ... 0
(Sec Class 1) (See Class 1)
(Sec Class 1) (Sec Class 1)
(See Class 1) (Sec Class 1)
0 0 0 - (Sec Class 1)
000-
000-
0.50
(Sec Class 1)
- - - -
.
(Sec Class 1) (Sec Class 1)
1
-------
The first data column in the table provides estimates (1) of engine
life for turbines (15 years) and pistons (20 years). The second column
lists the equations derived for estimating future emissions from known
base year emissions (EBY)» growth rate (G), and emission reductions (R).
EBY is expressed in terms of tons/day of the pollutant from the indicated
aircraft class. G is the fraction increase of base year emissions,
except when used in calculating EQQ, the emissions for 1980, where E,g
is the synthetic base year, and growth is expressed as a fraction increase
in emissions from 1978. Similarly, emission reduction is expressed as
a fraction decrease of base year emissions for the indicated projection
year. The reduction is based on 1978 emissions for calculating projected
1980 emissions. The derivation of values for G and R will be discussed
later.
The equations used for Aircraft Class 1 and Classes 4 through 9 are
identical. Emissions in 1975, 1977, and 1978 are calculated by simply
applying the appropriate growth factor to the base year emissions for each
class. Here, 1978 emissions are calculated only for use in projecting
1980 emissions. The expression for Ego differs from the preceding equations
in the table because of proposed Federal aircraft emission regulations which
affect all new engines produced after 1 January 1979 (2). This expression
contains essentially three terms and was derived as follows:
1. 2. 3.
1980 Emissions = 1978 emissions + emissions increase - emissions reduction
due to growth in due to engine
operations replacement
Term 1: 1978 Emissions = E™, as previously calculated
Term 2: Emissions increase due to growth in operations = G X (1-R) XE™
(NOTE: Since this growth occurs after the proposed emission
regulations come into effect, the growth must be modified
by the application of an appropriately reduced emission
rate, ergo the (1-R) factor.)
IggQ.]Q7Q
Term 3: Emissions reduction due to engine replacement = R X ( j )xE
78
B-6 = R X ( £ ) xE78
-------
where L is the life of the engine. The fraction 2/1 represents the
fraction of the aircraft engines of a particular class in 1978 which will
be replaced with new engines by 1980. This fraction effects a
proportionate reduction in emissions, since the replacement engines must
comply with the 1 January 1979 emission standards.
Thus, the emissions equation for 1980 reduces to the following:
E80 = E78 (1 +G
Classes 2 and 3 are special cases as one may observe from Table B-4.
because of burner can retrofit programs which effectively reduce hydro-
carbon and carbon monoxide emissions and increase (for Class 3) the oxides
of nitrogen emissions. These programs affect emissions in 1975 and 1977,
and the respective emission equations must show this.
For Class 2, the retrofit program is assumed (1) to be planned for
the three-year period from 1975 through 1977. It is estimated (1) to
have the following effect on emission factors:
THC CO NOV
J\
Pre-retrofit 41 lb/ engine/ LTD 47.4 Ib/engine/LTO 7.9 lb/ engine/ LTD
Pbst-retrofit 25 Ib/engine/LTO 43.0 Ib/engine/LTO 7.9* Ib/engine/LTO
The equations used for estimating 1975, 1977, and 1978 emissions were
derived as follows, taking the projection year 1975 for the purpose of
illustration.
1. 2. 3.
1975 emissions = base year + emissions increase due - emissions reduction due
emissions to growth in operations to portion of retro-
fit program complete by
mid-1975
Term 1: Base year emissions = EBY» as calculated for each region
Term 2: Emissions increase due to growth in operations = G X EBY
Term 3: Emissions reduction due to portion of retrofit program complete by
mid-1975 =
R X (1+G) X E
BY
* The effect on NO emissions is difficult to estimate at this time and
. is assumed to bexnegligible. D .,.
D- /
-------
Where:
R is the appropriate reduction factor for 1975 (discussed later
in this text).
Thus,
E75 = EBY + (G X EBY5 - R X (1+G) X EBY
= EBY 0+G) d-R)
Emissions for 1977 and 1978 are calculated similarly.
For Class 3 aircraft, similar logic leads to identical equations, this
time because the retrofit program, as described previously in this text,
was at a different stage of completion for each base year used, whether
1970, 1971, or 1972. Thus, the effective reduction in emissions from the
base year to 1975, 1977, or 1978 depends on the base year selected.
Projected growth rates are expressed in the table as the fraction
increase in the base year fleet of the particular type of aircraft. These
growth factors are used in the emission projections as increases in opera-
tions; it is assumed that operations (i.e., LTD cycles) vary in direct
proportion to the number of aircraft in use. The source data for these
factors are projections of the national aircraft fleet size made by the
Federal Aviation Admin. (5). These projections are shown in Table B-5.
Growth factors were calculated from these projections by simply dividing
the fleet size for the projected year by the fleet size in the appropriate
base year and subtracting one. Projected fleet sizes for 1978 were
obtained by interpolating the data in the table for 1975 and 1980.
Table B-6 shows how the FAA fleet categories designated in Table B-5
were correlated with the EPA aircraft classes. The reader will note
that projections for "commercial air carrier: jet: 2 and 3-engine" were
used for EPA Class 1, jumbo jets, even though one of the three typical
types of jumbo jets (the 747) has four engines. The reason for this is
that FAA has projected a declining population of four-engine commercial
jets, and this, is certainly not true of the 747. The growth rates derived
from FAA projections for 2 and 3-engine jets seem typical of 747 use
B-8
-------
TABLE B-5 COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. AIR CARRIER FLEET BY TYPE OF AIRCRAFT AND NUMBER OF ENGINES
December 31, 1969-1980
Type,of Aircraft
Dec. 31
1969
Forecast Air Carrier Fleet December 31
1970
1971
1972
1975
1980
CO
10
COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIER:
Fixed-wing, Total 2,672
Jet 2,068
2- and 3-engine 1,182
4-engine 886
SST
Turboprop 380
1- and 2-engine 269
4-engine Ill
Piston 224
1- and 2-engine .. 160
4-engine 64
Helicopter, Total 18
Turbi ne 15
GENERAL AVIATION:
Fixed-wing, Total 126,815
Piston 124,586
Multiengine 15,982
Single-engine 108,604
Turbine 2,229
Helicopter, Total 2,557
2,782
2,213
1,233
980
367
279
88
202
134
68
18
18
137,200
134,300
17,400
116,900
2,900
3,100
2,870
2,311
1,307
1,004
382
297
85
177
122
55
20
20
145,800
142,400
18,700
123,700
3,400
3,400
2,969
2,439
1.453
986
370
299
71
160
114
46
21
21
154,300
150,300
20,000
130,300
4,000
3,800
3,245
2,772
1,858
876
876
348
293
55
125
90
35
25
25
179,900
174,200
24,100
150,100
5,700
4,700
3,930
3,679
2,697
880
102
216
211
5
35
25
10
30
30
225,700
216,600
31,800
184,800
9,100
6,300
Source: Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1970 - 1981. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation
Administration, Office of Aviation Economics, Aviation Forecast Division.
-------
in the San Joaquin Valley, while the rates derived from projections for
4-engine jets are reasonable for EPA Class 2 operations.
TABLE B-6. AIRCRAFT CLASS CORRELATION
EPA
Aircraft
Class
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EPA
Aircraft
Category
Commercial Air Carrier:
Jet: 2 and 3-engine
Commercial Air Carrier
JET: 4-engine
Commercial Air Carrier:
JET: 2 and 3-engine
General Aviation:
General Aviation:
General Aviation:
Turbine
Turbine
Piston, Total
General Aviation: Hellicopter
FAA projections were not used for Class 4 (air carrier turboprops)
growth factors because they are not reasonable for application in the
San Joaquin Valley. The only commercial air carrier using turboprops in
the basin is Hughes Air West. The Fairchild F-27's used by Air West will
be totally replaced by Douglas DC-9's by 1977 (3). Accordingly, a
negative growth of -50% was used for 1975, and a negative growth of -100%
was used for 1977.
Similarly, it was estimated that any piston transports presently
in use in the San Joaquin Valley will not be in use by 1975.
Emission reductions are shown in Table B-4 for each base year,
each projected year, each pollutant, and each aircraft class. Emission
reductions effective in 1975, 1977, and 1978 result from the burner can
retrofit programs involving Class 2 and Class 3 aircraft, described earlier
B-10
-------
in the text. All Class 2 aircraft had the same (pre-retrofit) emission
factor, regardless whether the base year was 1970, 1971, or 1972. However,
the future emission factor depends on the projected year, since the retro-
fit program is planned for 1975 through 1977. Thus, since the. pre-retro-
fit total hydrocarbon emission factor for Class 2 aircraft was 41 Ib/engine/
LTO and the post-retrofit emission factor will be 25 lb/engine/LTD, the aver-
age emission factor in 1975 will be:
41 Ib/engine/LTO - 1/6 x (41 - 25) Ib/engine/LTO
and the reduction factor R will be:
1/6 x (4141" 25) = 0.06 (in other words, 6%)
Reductions for 1977 and 1978 were calculated similarly and appear in
Table B-4.
For Class 3 aircraft, the reduction depends on the base year, since
the burner can retrofit program was carried out from 1970 through 1972.
The emission factors for Class 3 aircraft are shown in Table B-3 for all
three base years. Thus, since the. post-retrofit total hydrocarbon emission
factor is (as was indicated earlier) 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO, and the 1970
emission factor was 4.7 Ib/engine/LTO, the reduction R for 1975, 1977,
and 1978 (i.e., any year after the retrofit program was completed but before
new standards come into effect) is:
4.7 Ib/engine/LTO - 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO _ n 9fi
4.7 lb/engine/LTO
Reductions corresponding to the other two base years are shown on Table B-4.
Emission reductions for all classes of aircraft between 1978 and
1980 are a result of the proposed Federal emission standards, to be
effective on new turbine and piston aircraft engines starting 1 January 1979.
The emissions from each new engine (i.e., each engine manufactured on or
after 1 January 1979) will be lower than the emissions from its older
(i.e., pre-1979) counterpart by the estimated (1) reduction values shown
B-ll
-------
in Table B-4. A reliable estimate for the reduction to be expected for
oxides of nitrogen has not yet been developed, and is assumed to be zero
for the time being.
B-12
-------
Commercial Air Carrier Emissions
Large commercial air carriers carry on their operations at the
Sacramento Metropolitan Airport in Sacramento County. The Airport is
located in the countryside, approximately ten miles north of urban
Sacramento.
Landing and takeoff (LTD) activity at the Sacramento Airport in
the base year 1972 was determined from published air carrier service
schedules (6). The schedule handbook provides a list of scheduled
air carrier flight, and an identification of airline and aircraft type.
Information extracted for the Sacramento Airport.is shown in Table B-7.
Six major airlines were carrying out operations in April of 1972. The
LTO activity of these airlines was determined to be relatively constant
throughout the year.
Base year aircraft emissions are calculated using aircraft engine
emission factors established under studies conducted for the EPA. These
factors, for CO, NO , and hydrocarbons, are listed in the most current
A
revision of AP-42 (8). The engine emission factors are presented for
each aircraft class in terms of pounds of pollutant per LTO. Information
from Table B-7 and emission factors from AP-42 were combined to compute
air carrier emissions (base year) as shown in Table B-8.
Future aircraft emissions from air carrier operations were
estimated for 1975, 1977, and 1980. The estimates are calculated using
projected aircraft growth rates and expected engine emission reductions
as outlined in Table B-4, "Data for Computation of Projected Civil Aircraft
Emissions." The basis for the projections of this table are explained in
the preceding section. To illustrate the use of the table in computing
projected emission estimates, an example calculation is shown below.
Consider the projected hydrocarbon emission for Class 2 aircraft in
1977. According to Table B-4, the expected emission in 1977 will be
E77 = EBY (1+G) (1-R)
where
EBY = emissions in base year (1972) = .392 ton/day
G = the growth in fraction increase of base year fleet = -.11
B-13
-------
TABLE B-7. LANDING AND TAKEOFF OPERATIONS AT SACRAMENTO METROPOLITAN AIRPORT
(April 1, 1972)
Total Scheduled LTO's Per Week
Aircraft
Class
2
Long Range
Jet
3
Medium
Range
Jet
4
Turbo-
prop
Air
Carrier
Ai rcraf t
Type
720
DC8
727
737
DC9
F27
Beech 99
Total performed LTO
Source:
Official
Donnelley
United Hughes Western
Airlines Airwest Airlines
14
21
42
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
70
0
's is generally approximately
Airline Guide , A
Publisher, April
0
0
0
42
0
0
0
95% (2)
guide to Scheduled
1, 1972.
Air Golden
PSA Calif. Pac. Total
00 0 14
00 0 21
52 0 0 94
55 25 0 123
000 7
000 70
0 0 11 11
TOTAL 340
of those scheduled, or 323 per week.
Air Carrier Services, . .Reuben
CD
I
-------
TABLE B-8. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIER EMISSIONS AT SACRAMENTO METROPOLITAN AIRPORT
FOR BASE YEAR 1972
Number
Aircraft of
Class Type Engines
2 720
DCS
3 727
737
DC9
4 F27
Beech 99
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
Number
Daily
LTO's
2.00
3.00
13.43
17.57
1.00
10.00
1.57
Hydrocarbon
Emission
Factor
(Lb/eng.)
41.2
41.2
3.9
3.9
3. .9
2.9
2.9
.Total
Hydrocarbon
Emissions
(Ton/day)
.165
.247
.078
.069
.004
.029
.004
.594
CO
Emission
Factor
(Lb/eng.)
47.4
47.4
18.7
18.7
18.7
6.6
6.6
NOX
CO Emission
Emissions Factor
(Tons/day) (Lb/eng.)
.190 7.9
.284
.377
.329
.019
.066
.010
1.275
7.9
10.2
10.2
10.2
2.5
2.5
NOX
Emissions
(Tons/day)
.032
.047
.205
.179
.010
.025
.004
.502
CO
I
-------
R = expected emission reduction, in fraction of base year
emission = .33
E?7 = .392 (l-.ll) (1-.33) = .234 tons/day hydrocarbons
In 1980, the emissions are calculated by
E
80 ?
where
G = growth in fraction of year 1978 = 0
R = emissions reduction in fraction of year 1978 = .70
L = engine life = 15 years
E78 = EBY (1+G) (1"R)
= EBY (l-.ll) (1-.39) = .54 (EBY)
Thus,
E8Q = .54 (EBy) [HO (1-
= .54 (.91) EBY = .193 tons/day in 1980.
The results of projected emission calculations for commercial air
carriers at Sacramento Airport are displayed in Table B-9.
B-16
-------
CD
TABLE B-9. BASE YEAR AND PROJECTED COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIER EMISSIONS
SACRAMENTO METROPOLITAN AIRPORT
Aircraft
Class
2
3
4
TOTAL
Total Hydrocarbons
Tons/day
1972
.412
.151
.033
.596
1975 ,
.275
.184
.015
.474
1977 1980 1972
.234 .193 .844
.216 .223 .725
.076
.450 .416 1.270
Carbon Monoxide
Tons/day
1975 1977 1980
.751 .695 .629
.801 1.062 1.119
.035
1.587 1.757 1.748
Nitrogen Oxides
Tons/day
1972
.079
.394
.029
.500
1975
.070
.424
.014
.508
1977 1980
.070 .070
.499 .638
.569 .708
Class 4, composed primarily of Hughes Airwest F27 aircraft, are scheduled to be phased out
from 1974 to 1976. They are to be replaced with DC9 (Class 3) aircraft.
-------
Non-Commercial Aircraft Emissions
Non-commercial aviation (general aviation, air taxi, and military)
operations are carried out at eight airports in the Sacramento Regional
Area. These airports are located in the Yolo, Sacramento, Placer, and
Sutter Counties. Non-commercial aviation at these airports is comprised
mainly of small piston type aircraft, the large majority of which are
single engine planes.
Landing and takeoff (LTD) activity of non-commercial aircraft,
in the base year 1972, was determined from 1972 FAA Airport Master
Records. These records were available from the Department of Trans-
portation, Federal Aviation Administration. They provide a summary of
takeoff and land operations for air taxi, military aircraft, and general
aviation. Information extracted from these records is shown in Table B-10.*
All non-commercial aviation was determined (9) to be of Class 7,
except for a negligible portion (.3% of all LTD cycles in the
Sacramento Regional Area) of business jet activity at the Sacramento
Executive Airport. Justifiably, then, for purposes of the emission
inventory determination, all non-commercial aircraft were considered to
be Class 7 type.
Multi-engine aircraft were assumed to be primarily twin-engine
aircraft. The overall distribution of twin-engine and single-engine
operations for all the airports was assumed to be equal to the
distribution of total twin-engine and total single-engine aircraft
actually based at all the airports. Consequently, 90 percent of all
non-commercial flight operations were assumed to be carried out by
single-engine aircraft (see Table B-10).
Non-commercial aviation emissions for the base year (1972) were
computed utilizing CO, NO , and hydrocarbon emission factors from
/\
the preliminary EPA revision to document AP-42 (8) and the LTD frequency
tabulations. The base year emission totals are .shown in Table B-ll..
Future aircraft emissions from non-commercial operations were
estimated for 1975, 1977, and 1980. The estimates are calculated with
the use of projected aircraft growth rates and expected engine emission
reductions as outlined in Table B-4 "Data for Computation of Projected
information was received too late for the incorporation of seven additional
airports; however, emissions from these represent only 0.4% of total aircraft
emissions in the region.
• B-18
-------
TABLE B-10. NON-COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
Airport
Woodland Muni-Watts Field,
Woodland, Yolo County
Yolo County International
Winters, Yolo County
University , Davis,
Yolo County
Lincoln Municipal ,
; Lincoln, Placer County
Auburn Municipal ,
Auburn, Placer County
Sutter County, Yuba City,
Sutter County
Sacramento Metropolitan
Sacramento, Sacramento Co.
Sacramento Executive,
Sacramento, Sacramento Co.
TOTALS
Annual
Local
36,000
4,000
25,000
60,000
18,000
25,000
44,383
57,289
Annual
Itinerant
20,000
2,000
20,000
50,000
17,000
20,000
34,720
134,254
Air
Taxi
1,000
0
400
500
700
1,000
10,000
15,000
Military
0
0
600
0
0
0
6,061
873
Total Base
Year
Operations
57,000
6,000
46,000
110,500
35,700
46,000
95,164
207,416
603,780
Based General
Aviation Aircraft
Single-
Engine
Aircraft
67
0
64
70
54
53
0
375
683
Mum-
Engine*
Aircraft
4
0
6
6
3
3
0
55
77
Total
71
0
70
76
57
56
0
430
760
en
i
Multi-engine aircraft
assumed to be twin-engine
-------
TABLE B-ll. NON-COMMERCIAL-AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS IN SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
FOR BASE YEAR 1972
Total
LTOa
(Per Year)
301 ,890
LTD Yearly
bingle-
Engine
271 ,400
Distribution0
Twin-
Engine
30,490
Emission
Factor, HC
(Lbs/eng.)
.40
Total HC
Emissions
Emission
Factor, CO
(Ton/day) (Lbs/eng.)
.182
12.2
CO
Emissions
N0xb
A
Emission
Factor
(Tons/day) (Lbs/eng.)
5.5
.047
NOX
Emissions
(Ton/day)
.021
co
ro
o
a General aviation plus air taxi plus military operations at civilian airports, divided by 2.
b Emission factors are from preliminary document on aircraft emissions (AP-42) issued by EPA.
c The overall distribution of single-engine and twin-engine plane operations was assumed equal
to the total distribution of these planes actually based at all the airports in the Sacramento
Regional Area.
-------
Civil Aircraft Emissions." To illustrate the use of the table in
computing projected emission estimates, an example caluclation is shown
below:
Consider the projected NO emission for Class 7 aircraft in 1977.
According to Table B-4, the expected emissions will be
E?7 = EBY (1+6) (1-R)
where
EDV = emissions in base year (1972) = .021 ton/day
BY
G = growth in fraction increase of base year fleet = .37
R = expected emission reduction, in fraction of base
year emissions = 0 «
E?7 = 6021 (1+.37) (1-0) = .026 ton/day NOX
Calculations for other pollutants and future years are made
similarly, and are displayed in Table B-12.
TABLE B-12. BASE YEAR AND PROJECTED NON-COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
EMISSIONS FOR SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
Year
1972
1975
1977
1980
Total Hydrocarbons
(Tons/day)
.182
.226
.249
.260
CO
(Tons/day)
5.5
6.8
7.5
7.9
NOX
(Tons/day)
.021
.026
.029
.033
B-21
-------
Military Air Bases
There are three military air bases in the Sacramento Regional Area:
Mather, McClellan, and Beale. All are operated by the Air Force. The
aircraft operations for 1970 are given in Table B-13. An operation is
here defined as either a landing or a takeoff. Thus, an LTO cycle involves
two operations.
Table B-14 shows the estimated growth of total LTO from the base year
(1972) to 1975, 1977, and 1980, and the distribution of LTO cycles by
aircraft class for each year. The values given in the column headed "Total
LTO" are simply the respective values given in the first table for aircraft
operations, divided by two. There is one exception -- the value for military
LTO at Mather -- which has been increased from one-half the 1970 operations
value by 25 percent because of a reported buildup of B-52 and KC-135
operations to support the augmented bombing in Vietnam in 1972. This percent
increase is based solely on hearsay; the actual value could be larger or
smaller. It is not likely that the Air Force will release information on the
actual value, however. The growth in LTO from 1972 is shown to be negative
by 20 percent for all years. This value reduces military aircraft LTO at
Mather to the value recorded for 1970.*
McClellan and Beale also have B-52 activity normally; however, it is
unknown whether a significant increase in LTO cycles occured in 1972 at
these air bases, and, therefore, no increase was estimated. Indeed, no
growth at all was estimated for these two bases, since reliable data or
opinions on projected operations is not available.
The distribution of LTO cycles by aircraft class has been estimated
for the base year, 1975, 1977, and 1980. The distribution for Mather
reflects the heavier B-52 and KC-135 operations during 1972. The
distributions shown for succeeding years is the normal distribution for
Mather, with the exception (11) that the T-43 (very similar to a B-737)
has replaced half of the operations carried out .by the less modern T-29,
which in 1970 accounted for 96 percent of the military LTO (12). The
distributions for McClellan and Beale are shown as obtained (12) for the
year 1970; no changes in distribution for 1972, 1975, 1977, or 1980 have
been used because no evidence for change is available.
*1970 LTO cycles = 78,804 (10).
D-22
-------
TABLE B-13. AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT MILITARY AIR BASES
IN THE SACRAMENTO AREA
Air Base
Mather
Sacramento, Call
McClellan
Sacramento, Call
Beale
Marysville, Call
Number of Aircraft Operations9 in 1970
Operator Military Civilian
Air Force 157,609 6,698
form' a
Air Force 94,576 4,672
fornia
Air Force 79,484 7,680
fornia
Source: Military Air Traffic Activity Report, Calendar Year 1970.
Department
of Transportation, Federal Aviation Agency.
aA military aircraft operation is defined as either a landing or a takeoff.
A modest amount of civilian aircraft operations is shown in the
tables for each base (it is combined in the total for McClellan). These
operations normally consist of small single-engine piston craft used for
sport by base personnel or owned by civilians using air base runways for
landing and takeoff.
Table B-15~ lists the emissions in tons per day for each \class of
aircraft and for each year of concern. These emissions have been calculated
as in the following example.
For Aircraft Class 12 at Mather in 1975, there were the following
number of LTO cycles:
(98,505) X (1 - .20) X (0.48) = 37,826
The aircraft type in this class, the military T-29, has two engines.
The emission factor (4) for Class 12 is 20.4 Ib/engine/LTO cycle, for
total hydrocarbon. The total hydrocarbon emissions are thus:
(37,826) X (2) X (20.4) = 1,543,300 Ib/year, or 2.114 tons/day.
B-23
-------
TABLE B-14. DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH OF AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY
AT MILITARY AIR BASES IN THE SACRAMENTO AREA
Total Estimated Growth, as Fraction
Operations LTOa Increase of Total 1972 LTO Aircraft
Base Type (1972) 1975 1977 1980 Class
Mather Military 98,505 -.20 -.20 -.20 3
11
11
12
Civilian 3,349 0 0 0 7
McClellan Total 47,288 0 002
7
11
11
11
12
12
Beale Military 39,742 0 0 0 11
11
11
12
Civilian 3,840 0 007
Aircraft
Type
T-43
KC-135
B-52
T-29
Single
_
_
_
-
,
-
-
.
1
-
-
Single
Number
of
Engines
2
4
8
2
1
4
1
1
2
8
2
4
1.5b
4
8 .
2.5b
1
Estimated Distribution As Fraction
of LTO Cycles of Indicated Year
1972
0
0.20
0.20
0.60
1.00
0.25
0.004
0.13
0.04
0.0011
0.10
0.48
0.07
0.45
•0.40
0.08
1.00
1975
0.48
0.02
0.02
0.48
1.00
0.25
0.004
0.13
0.04
0.0011
0.10
0.48
0.07
0.45
0.40
0.08
1.00
1977
0.48
0.02
0.02
0.48
1.00
0.25
0.004
0.13
0.04
0.0011
0.10
0.48
0.07
0.45
0.40
0.08
1.00
1980
0.48
0.02
0.02
0.48
1.00
0.25
0.004
0.13
0.04
0.0011
0.10
0.48
0.07
0.45
0.40
0.08
1.00
ro
1972 LTO was estimated at 1.25 X (1970 LTO) = 98,505, because of buildup
of B-52's and KC-135's for use in Vietnam.
Assumed average number of engines for several types of aircraft.
Sources: o Military Air Traffic Activity Report, Calenday Year 1970,
Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.
o California Air Resources Board
o U. S. Air Force Representative, Los Angeles, California
-------
TABLE B-15. AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS FROM MILITARY AIR BASES IN THE SACRAMENTO AREA
Operations Aircraft of
Base Type Class Engines
Mather Military 3
11
11
12
Civilian 7
McClellan Total 2
7
11
11
11
12
12
Beale Military 11
11
11
12
Civilian 7
TOTAL EMISSIONS - ALL AIR BASES
2
4
8
2
1
4
1
1
2
8
2
4
1.5
4
8
2.5
1
1972
0
1.072
2.138
3.304
0.0018
0.1971
0.0001
0.0877
0.0540
0.0059
0.2773
2.6630
0.0567
0.9730
1.7298
0.2221
0.0021
12.78
THC
1975
0.383
0.086
0.172
2.114
O.C-18
0.1971
0.0001
0.0877
C.0540
0.0059
0.2773
2.6630
0.0567
0.9730
1.7298
0.2221
0.0021
9.02
1977
0.383
0.086
0.172
2.114
0.0018
0.1971
0.0001
0.0877
0.0540
0.0059
0.2773
2.6630
0.0567
0.9730
1.7298
0.2221
0.0021
9.02
1980
0.383
0.086
0.172
2.114
0.0018
0.1971
0.0001
0.0877
0.0540
0.0059
0.2773
2.6630
0.0567
0.9730
1.7298
0.2221
0.0021
9.02
Aircraft Emissions (Tons/Day)
1972
0
1.630
0.326
24.613
0.0559
3.2220
0.0033
0.1334
0.0821
0.0090
2.0665
19.8390
0.0863
1.4797
2.6305
1 .6549
0.0641
57.900
CO
1975 1977 1980
1.814 1.814 1.814
0.130 0.130 0.130
0.260 0.260 0.260
19.690 19.690 19.690
0.0559 0.0559 0.0559
3.222 3.2220 3.2220
0.0033 0.0033 0.0033
0.1334 0.1334 0.1334
0.0821 0.0821 0.0821
0.0090 0.0090 0.0090
2.0665 2.0665 2.0665
19.8390 19.8390 19.8390
0.0863 0.0863 0.0863
1.4797 1.4797 1.4797
2.6305 2.6305 2.6305
1.6549 1.6549 1.6549
0.0641 0.0641 0.0641
53.22 53.22 53.22
1972
0
0.355
0.710
0.032
0.0002
0.5370
0.0000
0.0290
0.0178
0.0019
0.0027
0.0261
0.0188
0.3223
0.5731
0.0021
0.0002
2.6300
NO,
1975
1.091
0.028
0.056
0.021
0.0002
0.5370
0.0000
0.0290
0.0178
0.0019
0.002.7
0.0261
0.0188
0.3223
0.5731
0.0021
0.0002
2.730
(
1977
1.091
0.028
0.056
0.021
0.0002
0.5370
0.0000
0.0290
0.0178
0.0019
0.0027
0.0261
0.0188
0.3223
0.5731
0.0021
0.0002
2.730
1980
1.091
0.028
0.056
0.021
0.0002
0.5370
0.0000
0.0290
0.0178
0.0019
0.0027
0.0261
0.01B8
0.3223
0.5731
0.0021
0.0002
2.730
ro
i
ro
en
-------
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS CONTROL
In this section are presented the data and calculations used to esti-
mate the emission reductions to be expected from modification of ground
operations at the three military air bases in the Sacramento Regional Area.
Operations at Mather, McClellan and Beale Air Force Bases are combined in
this section, and the total aircraft emissions reductions for the Regional i
Area are summarized at the end.
The taxi -idle procedure will be modified by reducing the number of
engines used by Class 2, 3, and 11 Military Aircraft* and by increasing
the thrust setting at which they operate. Table 3-16 show^ the projected
Landing Takeoff (LTD) Cycles for each combination of aircraft class and
engine number. It will be necessary to calculate for each combination the
emissions to be expected in 1975, 1977, and 1980 from the current or
"standard" method used for the taxi -idle mode and to compare these estimated
emissions with the expected emissions from the modified method hypothesized
for taxi-idle.
The modal emission factors designated by EPA will be used to translate
the LTO data into emissions estimates. These values have been published for
Classes 2 and 3 (4)1. However, no modal factors are given for Class 11
(military jets), and these must be developed.
The Class 11 aircraft used at these air bases are primarily KC-135's
and B-52's. These craft employ the 057 turbine engine, which is very
similar to the JT3C, an engine used on some Class 2 aircraft (Boeing 720's,
for example). The following relationship will be assumed, in order to esti-
mate an appropriate modal emission factor for Class 11 aircraft in the
taxi -idle mode.
MEF,, = MEF X TIM2 X EF11
where MEF = modal emission factor for class subscripted
TIM = time in taxi-idle mode for class subscripted
EF = emission factor based on the whole LTO cycle for
class subscripted
* That is, all multiple-engine turbine aircraft used at these bases.
B-26
-------
TABLE B-16. PROJECTED LTO CYCLES AT MILITARY
AIR BASES IN SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
Class
2
3
11
11
11
No. Eng.
Per Plane
4
2
2
4
8
LTO (Thousands)
1975 1977 1980
11.8
37.8
1.9
33.6
31.7
11.8
37.8
1.9
33.6
31.7
11.8
37.8
1.9
33.6
31.7
SOURCES: • Military Air Traffic Activity Report,
calendar year 1970.Department of
Transportation, Federal Aviation
Administration
• California Air.Resources Board
• US Air Force Representative,
Los Angeles, California
NOTE:
Totals shown are taken from Appendix B
These values are the totaled Class 2,
3, and 11 (2, 4, and 8 engine) LTO
from all three bases in the regional area.
B-27
-------
This equation is reasonably valid, since the LTD emission factor is com-
puted from summing the products of respective modal emission factors and
times-in-mode over all modes of the LTD cycle, and since the taxi-idle
mode accounts for more of the total LTD time by far than any other mode.
The results are as follows:
For THC, MEF,, - 92.7 lb/engine/hr X X . „_, ,b/eng/hr
For CO, MEFn =107 X —• X ~^ = 68.1 Ib/engine/hr
Another consideration involves the fact that emission factors will
be reduced between 1978 and 1980 due to the Federal program for new turbine
aircraft engines, which takes effect with all engines produced after 1
January 1979. This program is discussed in more detail in previous sections,
The relationship between 1978 and 1980 modal emission factors is as follows:
MEFgo = MEF78 (1 - + (1 -R) ()
where MEF = modal emission factor to be used for 1980 emissions
MEF7g = modal emission factor used for 1978 emissions
L = estimated life of turbine aircraft engine = 15 years
R = reduction in emissions due to new engine emission
standards
The values for R are discussed in previous sections and are 0.70 for
THC, and 0.60 for CO.
The modal emission factors for the standard taxi-idle method are
shown in Table B-17.
B-28
-------
TABLE B-17. STANDARD TAXI-IDLE
EMISSION FACTORS (UNITS: LB/ENG./HR)
1975 1977 1978 1980
CLASS JH£Cp_ THC CO JHCCOJHC. CO.
2 92.7 107 87.1 105 53.1 95.2 48.3 87.6
3 6.99 33.4 6.99 33.4 6.99 33.4 6.4 30.7
11 44.7 68.1 44.7 68.1 44.7 68.1 40.7 62.6
Standard taxi-idle emissions were calculated as follows:
Taxi-idle
emissions
Taxi-idl
emission
factor
e
V
. A
Time in
taxi-idl
mode
e
V
A
i in
L 1 U
y
A
No.
per
of
Pi
engines
ane
The time in the taxi-idle mode was taken to be 13 minutes (4) for each
of the three classes. Estimates for standard taxi-idle emissions for 1975,
1977, and 1980 are shown in Table B-18 for each class-engine combination.
TABLE B-18. STANDARD
Class
2
3
11
11
11
No. Engines
per Plane
4
2
2
4
8
TOTALS
TAXI-IDLE EMISSIONS
1
THC
1.3
. 0.2
0.0
1.8
3.4
6.7
975
CO
1.5
0.7
0.1
2.7
5.1
.10.1
1
THC
1.2
0.2
0.0
1.8
3.4
6.6
(TONS/DAY) FROM MIL. AIR BASES
977
CO
1.5
0.7
0.1
2,7
5.1
10.1
1980
THC CO
0.7
0.1
0.0
1.6
3.1
5.5
1.2
0.7
0.1
2.5
4.7
9.2
B-29
-------
To calculate the emission reduction per engine due to the higher
thrust setting, Figure B-l was assumed to be typical (13) of turbine
engines used on aircraft in Classes 2, 3, and 11. According to this curve,
the emission reductions which result from reducing the number of engines
from four to two or from two to one (i.e., doubling the thrust per
operating engine) correspond to points A and C for CO and B and D for
THC. Thus, the percent reductions are as follows, reading data points
from the curve:
For THC, 90 "Q38 = 58%
For CO, "g = 37%
Table B-17 shows modal emission factors for the modified taxi-idle mode,
using these percent reductions per operating engine. In Table B-19
the effects of the higher thrust setting and the reduction in number of
operating engines are combined in the estimates for emissions for aircraft
operating in this mode. These emissions were calculated as follows:
Modified Modified taxi- Time .in No. of engines
taxi-idle = idle emission X taxi-idle X LTO X used for modi-
emissions factor mode fied taxi-idle
The time in the taxi-idle mode is assumed to be the same as in standard
taxi-idle -- 13 minutes.
Table B-19 also shows the difference in emissions between the standard
taxi-idle and the modified taxi-idle for all these bases.
FABLE B-19.
[mission
deductions
MODIFIED TAXI-IDLE
THC
2.8
3.9
1975
RHC
2.5
3.5
CO
6.4
3.7
EMISSIONS &
THC
2.8
3.8
1977
RHC
2.5
3.4
REDUCTIONS (TONS/DAY)
CO
6.4
3.7
THC
2.3
3.2
1980
RHC
2.1
2.9
CO
5.8
3.4
B-30
-------
Normal Taxi-idle
120 -
100 -
80 ~
CD
-------
REFERENCES (APPENDIX B)
1. Private communication with Mr. Robert Sampson, Environmental
Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan, May 1973.
2. Federal Register, Environmental Protection Agency, December 1972.
3. Private communication with Personnel at Hughes Air West, Planning
Division, May 1973.
4. "Aircraft" - Revision to AP-42, Environmental Protection Agency,
1973.
5. Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1970-1981, Department of
Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Aviation
Economics, Aviation Forecast Division.
6. Official Airline Guide. April 1, 1972. Published by
Reuben Donnelley.
7. FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1970 Edition. Published by
Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.
8. EPA Document AP-42.
9. Private communication with State Air Resources Board Personnel
regarding aircraft emission inventory date for the Sacramento
Executive Airport.
10. Military Air Traffic Activity Report, Calendar Year 1970.
Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.
11. Private communication with U. S. Air Force Representatives,
Los Angeles, California, May 1973.
12. Private communication with California Air Resources Board Personnel,
May 1973.
13. Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of Controls,
Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
B-32
-------
APPENDIX C
PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY
Questionnaires were sent as part of this study to a select mail
panel in the metropolitan area within the Sacramento Regional Area.
These questionnaires included questions involving transportation and
environmental pollution. The respondents were characterized by the
following distributions by annual family income and autos per
household.
Annual Number of Percent of
Family Income Respondents Sample
Less than $8,000 42
$8,000 to $15,000 59
More than $15,000 38
Total 139 100.0
Autos Per Household
None 1 0.7
One 48 34.5
Two 71 51.1
Three or more 16 11.5
Unknown 3 2.2
Total 139 100.0
Locations of the Respondents' Households Were:
Sacramento 75
North Highlands 8
Davis 7
Fair Oaks 7
Other Cities 42
Total 139
Questionnaire responses were tabulated by income level and car
ownership status of each panel member's family. A summary of the results
of the survey follows.
C-l
-------
1. All autos made in 1975 and thereafter will be equipped with emission control devirr:; to reduce air
pollution. If in 1975 you owned a car built before that year, how would you feel about a law re-
quiring you to put emission control equipment which might cost $125 on your car? ("X" HE LOW)
2. How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by government subsidy to about $50?
("X" BELOW)
Fcelinp Toward Law: 1. Cost $125 2. Cost $50
Very much in favor o'f law. . 20. 0% 38. 3%
Somewhat in favor of law. . . 16. 5 25. 0
Somewhat against lav/ 20.0 11.7
Very much against law 43.5 25. 0
3a. Even cars properly equipped with emission control equipment might still pollute the air Lf the equip-
ment was not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic inspection of
the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in Somewhat in Somewhat Very much
favor of law favor of law against law against law
51.8% 21.2% 9.5% 17.5%
3b. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, \vhat would you consider a
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
* 8. 64 Average
3c. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection
should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY)
At state-operated inspection centers 55. 1%
At city-operated inspection centers 10. 3
At local service stations or garages 30. 1
At some other place (Specify): 4.4
C-2
-------
To Me This Plan Is:
4a. Even if all autos were equipped with properly maintained
emission control systems, some cities might still have auto
air pollution problems due to the large number of cars
cither on the streets at the same time or concentrated in
particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways
to reduce pollution under one or both of these conditions.
Please tell me how you feel about each of these proposals.
("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal 42
a. Gasoline rationing 3.8% 16.5% 8.3% 18.8% 52.
b. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto . - 1.5 3.7 7.4 87.4
c. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto
: but only for the second, third, etc. , i
auto 8.1 11.1 6.7 18.5 * 55.6
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central »
business districts 25..0 28.7 11.8 14.7 19.9
e. A tax on all day parking in central busi- |
ness districts 13.3 23.7 19.3 10.4 33.3
f. A tax on parking in central business dis-
' tricts regardless of whether a person . A
parked only one hour or all day 5.2 17.2 11.9 18. 7 47. 0
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways i
and expressways 0.7 3.7 9.6 20.7 65.2
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways but only when traffic A
was heavy. 1.5 6.7 10.4 15,7 65.7
i. Mandatory car pooling--allowing only
cars carrying at least three persons . ^
to use freeways during rush hours ..... 14. 0 19. 1 10. 3 18.4 38. 2
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on major A
expressways and streets 35.6 32.6 8.9 5.9 17.0
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
C-3
-------
4b. Which of the proposals listed above would be the most acceptable? (Give Letter:) J 50. 8%
D 18.5%
4c. Which would be most unacceptable?
(Give Letter:) B 45.5%
A 30. 3%
QUESTIONS 5-6 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELATT1V!G TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM, IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
5a. How often do the various members of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, subway, or commuter train.)
Husband
Wife
Children
(Over 16 Years Old)
Three or more times a. week.
One or two times a week. ....
Once a month ......... . .....
Once every three months ....
Never.. ............... ----
No household member .......
0. 8%
0. 8
-
3.8
86.3
8.4
1.4%
2. 9
2. 9
8. 7
84.1
0.9%
0.9
2.6
38.6
57.0
C-4
-------
5b. Please rate each household incmbcr's reason for using public transportation. (Rate the most
important reason "1", the next most important "2", the next "3", etc. If a household member
never uses public transportation, "X" the "never use" box at the bottom of the list.)
5c. Please rate each household member's reasons for traveling by auto. Follow the same procedure
as in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER Sc)
5b. Public Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Reasons Husband Wife Years Old)
a. Cheaper
b. Faster
c. More comfortable . .
d. Safer for passenger.
e. Less congested
Sample of Public Transporta-
f. More available tion users too small to be
meaningful
g. More flexible (I can
come and go as
h. More relaxing (able
to read while
traveling)
i. Need car during the
dav.
j. I do not have a
driver's license..
k. Car is not available
when I need it ....
1. Other (Specify):
«b
rv. KTauov nco P'V" Rr>v^ 1 1 A / 1 1 1\ 11/1/11Q A? //in
5c. Auto Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Husband Wife Years Old)
666
33 3
5 5-4
88 8
77 7
1 1 1
22 2
Not Applicable
44 5
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Generally only means
of transportation
^./torv Q/IIQ c\ /A o
C-5
-------
5d. Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effectiveness which items
below you feel would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the moot
effective itrm a "1", the next most effective "2", the next "3"^ etc.)
Children
Items:
Cleaner and newer vehicles. .
Faster travel
Air-conditioned vehicles ....
More frequent service
Parking facilities at stops or
stations
Shelters against bad weather
at stops or stations
Better security to assure
personal safety
More conveniently located
stops and stations
Husband
8
3
6
1
5
4
7
9
2
Wife
8
3
7
1
4
5
6
9
2
(Over 16 Years Old)
8
5
7
1
3
9
4
6
2
Other (Specify):
C-6
-------
6a. How would you or other household members feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool?
("X" ONE ONLY)
Very interested 21. 6%
Somewhat interested 21.6
Not at all interested 31. 3
Already in car pool 4. 5
Do not travel to and from
work by car 20. 9
6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets in order to
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONLY)
Extremely difficult 31.3%
Very difficult 15.3
Somewhat difficult 31.3
Somewhat easy 11.5
Very easy 5.3
Extremely easy 1.5
Already in car pool 3. 8
C-7
-------
7. One of the major causes of areas of high pollution is traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and ntop-and-po traffic was reduced. Listed below are
several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
EACH IDEA)
Idea:
•H 00-1
a. Prohibit parking, loading a~nd unloading .
on busy streets 43.8% 34.6% 15.4% 6.2%
b. Increase tKe number of one-way streets .... 19.8 55. 7 17.6 6.9
c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets .
to be used during rush hours 20. 0 28. 5 26. 9 24. 6
d. Prohibit turns at busy intersections during
rush hours 34.6 36.8 17.3 11.3
e. Widen major streets 34.1 38.9. 19.8 7.1
f. Widen major streets at intersections only .. 7.2 40. (T 36.0 16.8
g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or
overpasses 47.2 37.0 14.2 1.6
h. improve timing of traffic signals 62.8 30.7 5.8 0.7
i. Increase the number and frequency of .
radio traffic reports 26.4 48.1 22.5 3.1
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on express-
ways and busy streets 41.0 39.6 12.7 6.7
Your ideas (Please List):
Install turn lanes
Develop bike lanes
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
C-8
-------
Since traffic congestion is most severe at times when people arc going to or coming from v/ork,
one alternative for reducing congestion would be to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM, others
would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM, others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about
this idea? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in favor 44. 6%
Somewhat in favor 33. 1
Indifferent 8.6
Somewhat opposed 4. 3
Very much opposed. 9.4
To Me This Plan Is:
9. Along with the air pollution problem, the country
may also be faced with a gasoline shortage. The
.following methods have been suggested as ways
to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso-
line. How do you feel about each of these pro-
posals? <"X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
a. Gasoline rationing with drivers being
allowed to purchase during a year:
about 90 percent of the fuel now used . 18. 2% 29. 5%
b. about 80 percent of the fuel now used . 3. 1 26. 9
c. about 2/3 of the fuel now used 3.8 9.2
d. An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on
the number of miles driven during a
year:
at $10 per thousand miles 5. 3 15. 9
e. at $15 per thousand miles 4. 2 6. 7
f. Doubling the price of gasoline and using
the additional revenue to improve mass
transit 4.4 8.1
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
-2
12,
23,
23,
9.
15.
9%
8
1
16
11.
19
12.
10.
7%
6>7
11.9
22
34
44,
7%
6
6
6
9
6A8.9
10a. Please record the model year of each car owned in your household.
UNDER IQa)
lOb. Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year.
(WRITE IN JNUMBER OF MILES UNDER KIb BELOW)
(WRITE IN BELOW
C-9
-------
lOc. For each car, please estimate what pcrccntanc of last year's mileage w?3 accounted for by
driving outside your local metropolitan area. (For example, vacation, business trips,
short weekend trips, etc.) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER lOc)
IQa IQb lOc :
Last Year's Percentage of Mileage
Model Year . Mileage Outside Local Area
Car #1
Car n
Car #3
Car #4
1968
1966
1966
11,400
9,680
7,670
Sample too small
.32
20
22
10d. How many licensed drivers.arc there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers; 2.01 Average
10e. If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the
cars you own? ' . • . .•
Yes 15.6% . .
Maybe 17.0 10f. How many? (WRITE IN) 1.05 cars
No 67.4 Average of Yes and Maybe
Ha. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lla BELOW)
lib. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lib BELOW)
lla. City lib. Nationwide
Very serious problem 19.7% 45.4%
Serious problem 14.6 36.2
Slightly serious problem... 51.1 17.7
No problem at all . . 14.6 0.8
C-10
-------
12. If you have any views or comments regarding any questions or idea, please record
them.
. Mass transit needed
. Develop more efficient engine
. Emission control devices cut down car performance and gas mileage
Reduce horsepower and/or car size
. Encourage bicycles and provide bike lanes
C-ll
-------
APPENDIX D
RECENT CALIFORNIA AIR POLLUTION LEGISLATION
This Appendix discusses several California air pollution bills
which are up for consideration during the current legislative session.
The status of these bills is presented as of June 14, 1973. Included
here, are the bills comprising the "nine-bill" program which is sponsored
by Assembly Speaker, Bob Moretti. Of the fourteen bills presented, it
appears that only about six of them stand any chance of becoming law in
their present form.
D-l
-------
Assembly Constitutional Amendment 16 - Motor Vehicle Taxation and Revenues
Foran
This bill authorizes highway revenues to be used for construction
of public transit systems, control of environmental pollution caused
by motor vehicles, and payments of bonds issued for such
purposes* as well as for highway purposes, including enforcement of law
thereon and registration of motor vehicles.
Status: This bill is in the Senate Transportation Committee and will
probably die there.
Assembly Bill 266 - Inspection Maintenance: Passenger Vehicles South
Coast Air Basin '
Foran
This act requires the State Air Resources Board to adopt passenger
vehicle emissions test procedures and standards for the South Coast Air
Basin, and authorizes the Department of Consumer Affairs to be responsible
for operating inspection and testing stations.
Certificates of compliance will be issued by the Department of
Consumer Affairs when a vehicle meets the adopted emissions standards
and when a standard fee, as determined by the Department, is paid. These
fees will be deposited in the Air Pollution Control Fund. Upon initial
registration or renewals thereafter, the Department of Motor Vehicles will
require a Certificate of Compliance in the South Coast Air Basin.
Motorcycle owners are exempt.
Status: This bill has been approved by the Assembly Committee on
Transportation, May 30, 1973, and sent to the Assembly Ways and Means
Committee. It will probably die in the Senate.
Assembly Bill 380 - Inspection, Maintenance in the SCAB
Deddeh
This bill requires the Department of Consumer Affairs, with the
cooperation of the State Air Resources Board, the Department of the
California Highway Patrol, and the Department of Motor Vehicles, to
plan and operate an experimental annual motor vehicle inspection,
diagnostic, and repair system, which is to be designed for the South
Coast Air Basin. It declares that an effective system of periodic
inspection, maintenance, and consumer education will reduce the level
D-2
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of vehicular air pollution, noise emission levels, improve safety, and
provide motorists with objective motor vehicle maintenance information.
Status: This bill was approved by the Assembly Committee on
Transportation, May 30, 1973, and sent to the Assembly Ways and Means
Committee. It will probably be passed by both houses and be signed by
the Governor. It has been endorsed by the Administration.
Assembly Bill 1074 - Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control
Diddeh/Papan/Wood
The State Air Resources Board would be required to establish
standards for accrediting exhaust emission devices which: (1) reduce
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions from motor
vehicle exhaust to specified levels (hydrocarbons -- 350 ppm, CO -- 2 per-
cent, nitrogen oxides -- 800 ppm); and (2) achieve a reduction of
hydrocarbon, CO, and NO emissions substantially below the standards for
/v
any two pollutants set forth in specified sections of the Health and
Safety Code. If an exhaust emission device meets two out of the three
maximum levels, or if a device substantially reduces the emission of any
two of the three pollutants the State Air Resources Board may accredit
such a device, provided that the emission level of the third pollutant
is not increased above the level it was before installation of the
device. . . . •
The Board is prohibited from requiring the installation of more than
one exhaust emission device or any vehicle even if tv/o or more devices are
accredited. After at least one device is accredited, accreditation
of a device unless it is as effective as any device previously accred-
ited is prohibited. It specifies that any subsequent accreditation
of a more effective device shall not affect the accreditation of a
previously accredited device.
Status: This bill is ready for the third reading in the Assembly
Transportation Committee and will probably be passed by the Assembly. If
it passes the Senate, the Governor will probably sign it.
Assembly Bill 1279 - Gasoline Additives
Sieroty
The State Air Resources Board would be authorized, under specified
conditions, to establish standards for composition or chemical or physical
D-3
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properties of motor vehicle fuel additives and to adopt regulations
thereon. It authorizes injunctive relief to be brought by the Attorney
General. It imposes various agreement conditions upon any manufacturer
of motor vehicle fuel additive found by the Board to result in significant
and beneficial reduction in emission of air pollution, and authorizes the
Board to conduct tests, or t;o engage independent laboratories to conduct
tests, to establish standards fqr motor vehicle fuel additives.
Status: This bill has been revised and approved and the Governor will
probably sign it. . '
Assembly Bill 2283 - Los Angeles Basinwide APCD
Moretti
This bill creates the Los Angeles Basinwide Air Pollution Control
District to encompass the area of the South Coast Air Basin. It specifies ,
the duties, functions, and powers of the district, and limits, with respect
to air pollution, the powers of boards of supervisor? of counties included
in the district.
It authorizes the district board, by resolution, to impose upon
distributors an additional license fee of 0.1 cent per gallon of
motor vehicle fuel for the privilege of distributing motor vehicle fuel
in the district, with the net revenues transmitted to the district. The
district board would also be authorized to impose a fee on stationary
sources, as defined, of $1 per 100 tons of emission of air contaminants
therefrom. The State Air Resources Board would be authorized to exercise
the powers of the district under specified circumstances.
Status: This bill will be passed by the Assembly and killed in the, Senate.
Assembly Bill 2284 - Air Pollution Violation Fine
Moretti '' •
This act changes civil penalty for certain air pollution violations
for each day in which the violation occurs from not to exceed $500, to
$500 for a first offense, $1,000 for 3 second offense., $2,000 for a, third
offense, $3,000 for a fourth offqnse, $4,000 for a fifth offense, $5,000
for a sixth offense, and $10,000 for a seventh offense and each succeeding
offense, during a 12^-month period-
It makes provisions appliqable to a violation of rules and regulations
of the Bay Area Air Pollution Control District and prescribed provisions
D-4
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regarding nonvehicular pollution control, including such provisions en-
forced by regional air pollution control districts created under the
Mulford-Carrell Air Resources Act.
Status: This bill is in the Assembly Transportation Committee. It will
be substantially modified by the Senate. The Governor will not sign it
in its present form.
Assembly Bill 2285 - Gasoline Marketing Control
Berman/Moretti
This bill prohibits any person.from holding or storing any volatile
organic compound having a vapor pressure of 1.5 pounds per square inch
absolute or greater, under actual storage conditions, in any stationary
tank, reservoir, or other container of more than 250 gallons capacity,
unless such tank, reservoir, or other container is either a pressure
tank maintaining working pressures sufficient to prevent hydrocarbon
vapor or gas loss to the atmosphere or is designed and equipped with a
vapor loss control device or system, as prescribed. Pressure tanks may
be equipped with one-way automatic pressure relief valves necessary to
meet any other requirements of law.
Status: This bill will probably be killed in the Senate or be revised
beyond recognition.
Assembly Bill 2286 - Stationary Source Controls
Montoya/Horetti
This bill requires, on January 1 and July 1 of each year, every air
pollution control district to make public a list naming the person
operating, and the location of, each stationary source located within the
district emitting 25 or more tons annually, or in the case of the Bay Area
Air Pollution .Control District or such districts located in the San Diego
Air Basin or the South Coast Air Basin, as designated by the State Air
' Pvesources Board, emitting 100 or more tons annually, of specified air
contaminants and stating the amount of each such air contaminant emitted
to at least the nearest 0.1 of a ton. It appropriates an unspecified
amount to the State ControTler for allocation and disbursement to local
agencies for costs incurred by them pursuant to this act.
D-5
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Status: This bill is in the Assembly Transportation Committee. It will
\
pass both houses and probably be signed by the Governor.
Assembly Bill 2287 - Listing of Top Ten Stationary Source Categories
Ingalls/Moretti
This bill requires each air pollution control district, in which the
state's ambient air quality standard for a particular air contaminant
has been exceeded during the year in the district, to release and
disseminate to the public a list naming the person operating, and the
location of, the 10 stationary sources located within the district emitting
the greatest amount of the particular air contaminant, if the source emits
25 tons or more annually of the air contaminant. The stationary sources
would be required to be listed in decreasing order of the amount of their
emissions of the air contaminant in tons per day. The list would also
include such sources listed in decreasing order of their emissions in tons
per day of hydrocarbons or reactive hydrocarbons where the state's ambient
air quality standard for oxidant is exceeded.
The bill appropriates an unspecified amount to the State Controller
for allocation and disbursement to local agencies for costs incurred by
them pursuant to this act.
Status: This bill is in the Assembly Ways and Means Committee. It will
probably pass both houses and be signed by the Governor.
Assembly Bill 2288 - Retrofit Devices
Ingalls/Moretti
Requires that the Department of Motor Vehicles, in addition to any
other requirements relating to renewal of registration, require, upon
1975 renewal of registration of every 1966-70 model year motor vehicle .. .
subject to specified provisions of the Vehicle Code, a valid certificate
of compliance from a licensed motor vehicle pollution" control device
installation and inspection station indicating that such vehicle is
properly equipped with a motor vehicle pollution control device with
which the vehicle was required, when new, to be equipped, as a condition
of first sale and registration in this state.
Status,: This bill is being heard in the Assembly Transportation
Committee. The Governor will probably veto it this year, because it is
felt that the DMV will .not, at this time, enforce a certificate of
compliance.
D-6
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Senate Bill 479 - Exhaust Test, Tune-Up: Motor Vehicles South Coast Air
Basin
Biddle and Coombs
Every registered automotive repair dealer in the South Coast Air
Basin would be required to perform specified exhaust emission control
system and device maintenance when he does a tuneup, or any portion
thereof, on a motor vehicle with such a system or device, or both.
This bill requires such maintenance to be performed on all motor
vehicles so equipped that are registered within the basin, except when
the principal garage of the vehicle is located outside of the basin,, at
least once in 1974 and in 1975, under a schedule adopted by the Chief of
the Bureau of Automotive Repair, after consultation with the State Air
Resources Board and the Department of the California Highway Patrol.
Status: After first reading, this bill was sent to Senate Committee on
Government Organization. It will probably die in the Assembly.
Senate Bill 549 - Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Devices
Wedworth
This bill requires the Bureau of Automotive Repair, the Department
of the California Highway Patrol, the State Air Resources Board, and all
local law enforcement agencies to enforce specified provisions prohibiting
the installation, sales, offering for sale, or advertisement, of motor
vehicle air pollution control devices which are not certified or accredited
by the State Air Resources Board. Violation of these provisions and of
specified provisions of the Vehicle Code regarding air pollution control
devices, is a misdemeanor.
An unspecified amount is appropriated from the General Fund to the
State Controller for allocation and disbursement to local agencies for
costs incurred' by them pursuant to this act.
Status: The bill is in the Senate Finance Committee. It will
probably pass both houses and be signed.
Senate Bill 675 - Fleet'Vehicle Conversion or Specification Type System
Beilenson
This bill requires every 1968 to 1973, inclusive, year model fleet
vehicle, as defined, and with specified exception, registered under the
D-7
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Vehicle Code and operating within any one or more of the.Counties of
Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, Santa Barbara, San Bernardino, and
Ventura, to be equipped with a specified fuel system or other device,
in accordance with a schedule prescribed by the State Air Resources
Board. Requires that all such vehicles comply no later than December 31,
1974. Makes provision for proof of compliance and certain exemption, and
for the issuance of a windshield sticker.
The Department of Motor Vehicles, on and after January 1, 1975,
would require, upon initial registration, transfer of ownership and
registration, and, upon renewal of registration for the 1975 calendar
year and each calendar year thereafter, of vehicles subject to such
provisions, a valid certificate of compliance from a licensed motor
vehicle pollution control device installation and inspection station
indicating that such vehicle is equipped as required.
Status: This bill was read for the first time and sent to the Senate
Committee on Government Organization. It will probably die in the Senate.
D-8
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APPENDIX E
PROJECTIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
Calculations and projections of air pollution emissions depend on
data concerning motor vehicles and gasoline consumption (or VMT). An
evaluation of the available data disclosed that there were no well-
documented sources for such projections, consistent with the most recent
census data and latest population forecasts (6). The most recent
projections of motor vehicle registrations provided by the California
Department of Motor Vehicles is based on pre-1970 census data and is
thus outdated (3). They are currently updating their old projections
to reflect the most recent census reports (10); however, their results
were unavailable for use in this study. It thus became necessary to
establish the necessary data base and project these critical variables.
This appendix describes the methodology used and presents the results
of the analysis.
Special Problems in Data Availability
Several problems arise in attempts to accurately forecast region
specific growth trends. Among the more critical problems is obtaining
adequate historical data compatible with and specific enough to the
region of interest. As an example, different agencies use varying
definitions for compiling data on motor vehicle classes, e.g. commercial,
trucks. These categories are frequently incompatible with those desired
for use in estimating pollutant emissions, e.g. light duty and heavy duty
vehicles. .By necessity, therefore, projections were made using the
historical data available and then adjustments were made in the projected
data to reflect the desired categories for estimating emissions.
Gasoline consumption was projected by apportioning statewide
consumption figures to the regions of interest on the basis of population.
Due to the methods used to collect gasoline taxes, it is virtually
impossible to get accurate estimates of gasoline consumption by air basin.
The estimates of gasoline consumption by region were not used directly in
the analysis to compute emissions; rather, they served mainly as a back-up
check on VMT estimates provided as computed by other methods.
E-l
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Method of Analysis
Linear multiple-regression analysis (4) was used to estimate several
equations, predicting various types of motor vehicles and gasoline
consumption. Multiple regression techniques allow estimation of a
dependent variable based on values for several independent variables.
An equation of the following form results.
y = c + a, x, + a«X2 + . . . + ax
where:
y = dependent variable
c = a constant (represents the term ax )
x-i, ... > x = independent variables
a-i» ... . a = coefficients
In the above formula, it is assumed that all x-|, ..., xp are completely
independent. In studying social phenomena, however, a high degree of
interaction between variables is usually found. For example, population,
income, overall economic activity, and many other social trends vary
together, especially when viewed over a considerable time period.
Using the multiple regression analysis, thirteen years of historical
data (1960-1972) were used to generate a set of regression equations (see
Table 1). The historical data for each region included information on
1) population, 2) per capita income, 3) regional economic activity,
4) consumer price index, and 5) various motor vehicles (e.g. autos,
commercial, and motorcycles).
Population Projections (1,5)
The Population Research Unit of the California Department of
Finance provides projections of population in California by counties
to the year 2000. Their projections are based on an assumed fertility
of 2.45 births per woman and a -net migration of 150,000 annually into
the state. This set of projections is commonly called the "D-150" set
of projections, with the "D" corresponding to the Bureau of the Census
Series D projection of growth and the "150" indicating an overall gain
of 150,000 migrants annually into the state. Due to charges that
projections frequently turn out to be self-fulfilling prophecy, the
E-2
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Department of Finance also has compiled an "E-0" set of population
growth projections. This series of forecasts assume a lower fertility
rate (2.11 births per woman) and a net zero growth from in-and-out
migration statewide.
In view of the implementation difficulties associated with a "no
growth" policy, it has been assumed for this analysis that the D-150
series of projections are the most accurate. The California Air Resources
Board also uses this set of figures as the basis for their growth
rates.
Per Capita Income and Regional Economic Activity (2)
Projections for these indices were extracted from the Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA) summaries compiled by EPA and
HUD.
Consumer Price Index (7)
The projected price indices for the region were provided by the
Economic Research Unit of the California Department of Finance. This was
determined by "averaging" the price index projections for San Francisco,
Los Angeles, and San Diego, since price index information was not available
for other areas.
Motor Vehicle Projections (3,8)
The independent variables used to forecast motor vehicles were
population and adjusted per capita income. It has been well documented
that economic variables are very important in forecasting demand for goods
and services. In the case of motor vehicles, it has been shown elsewhere
that adjusted per capita income is indeed a good indicator of future auto
ownership. Intuitively, it is very reasonable that growth in motor vehicles
is reflected by these two variables -- population, to reflect the need for
more cars, and per capita income to reflect one's ability to buy cars.
The linear multiple-regression approach for forecasting autos not
only allows economic variables to be considered, but it allows economic
data specific to the region to be considered. One would certainly expect
regional economic activity to be significant in an area's ability to
purchase automobiles.
E-3
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In a similar fashion, commercial vehicles (trucks), motorcycles,
and regional gasoline consumption were also projected. Commercial vehicles
were projected on the basis of population and total earnings for the
region, since commercial vehicles, by definition, are used primarily for
business purposes and therefore are dependent on the economic activity of
the region. (Total earnings, which is the summation of all earnings for
the majority of the major industrial and commercial activity, is an
accurate indicator of commercial business trends.) Motorcycles were
forecast using historical trend data for adjusted per capita personal
income. Since motorcycles have traditionally been a luxury item rather
than a necessity (except for a small minority), its population growth is
dependent on increased buying power. This is attested to by the fact that
the majority of motorcycles purchased are for recreational purposes rather
than to serve basic transportation needs.
Gasoline consumption was projected from the number of vehicles
and California Consumer Price Index. An increase in vehicles would imply
more consumption, just as changes in prices would be reflected in the
demand for gasoline. This is justified on the grounds that individuals
are conscious of gasoline prices, both implicitly as they purchase autos
which give better gas mileage, and explicitly as they shop around for the
lower-priced gasoline stations.
E-4
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Department of Finance also has compiled an "E-0" set of population
growth projections. This series of forecasts assume a lower fertility
rate (2.11 births per woman) and a net zero growth from in-and-out
migration statewide.
In view of the implementation difficulties associated with a "no
growth" policy, it has been assumed for this analysis that the D-150
series of projections are the most accurate. The California Air Resources
Board also uses this set of figures as the basis for their growth
rates.
Per Capita Income and Regional Economic Activity (2)
Projections for these indices were extracted from the Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA) summaries compiled by EPA and
HUD.
Consumer Price Index (7)
The projected price indices for the region were provided by the
Economic Research Unit of the California Department of Finance. This was
determined by "averaging" the price index projections for San Francisco,
Los Angeles, and San Diego, since price index information was not available
for other areas.
Motor Vehicle Projections (3,8)
The independent variables used to forecast motor vehicles were
population and adjusted per capita income. It has been well documented
that economic variables are very important in forecasting demand for goods
and services. In the case of motor vehicles, it has been shown elsewhere
that adjusted per capita income is indeed a good indicator of future auto
ownership. Intuitively, it is very reasonable that growth in motor vehicles
is reflected by these two variables -- population, to reflect the need for
more cars, and per capita income to reflect one's ability to buy cars.
The linear multiple-regression approach for forecasting autos not
only allows economic variables to be considered, but it allows economic
data specific to the region to be considered. One would certainly expect
regional economic activity to be significant in an area's ability to
purchase automobiles.
E-3
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In a similar fashion, commercial vehicles (trucks), motorcycles,
and regional gasoline consumption were also projected. Commercial vehicles
were projected on the basis of population and total earnings for the
region, since commercial vehicles, by definition, are used primarily for
business purposes and therefore are dependent on the economic activity of
the region. (Total earnings, which is the summation of all earnings for
the majority of the major industrial and commercial activity, is an
accurate indicator of commercial business trends.) Motorcycles were
forecast using historical trend data for adjusted per capita personal
income. Since motorcycles have traditionally been a luxury item rather
than a necessity (except for a small minority), its population growth is
dependent on increased buying power. This is attested to by the fact that
the majority of motorcycles purchased are for recreational purposes rather
than to serve basic transportation needs.
Gasoline consumption was projected from the number of vehicles
and California Consumer Price Index. An increase in vehicles would imply
more consumption, just as changes in prices would be reflected in the
demand for gasoline. This is justified on the grounds that individuals
are conscious of gasoline prices, both implicitly as they purchase autos
which give better gas mileage, and explicitly as they shop around for the
lower-priced gasoline stations.
E-4
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Department of Finance also has compiled an "E-0" set of population
growth projections. This series of forecasts assume a lower fertility
rate (2.11 births per woman) and a net zero growth from in-and-out
migration statewide.
In view of the implementation difficulties associated with a "no
growth" policy, it has been assumed for this analysis that the D-150
series of projections are the most accurate. The California Air Resources
Board also uses this set of figures as the basis for their growth
rates.
Per Capita Income and Regional Economic Activity (2)
Projections for these indices were extracted from the Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA) summaries compiled by EPA and
HUD.
Consumer Price Index (7)
The projected price indices for the region were provided by the
Economic Research Unit of the California Department of Finance. This was
determined by "averaging" the price index projections for San Francisco,
Los Angeles, and San Diego, since price index information was not available
for other areas.
Motor Vehicle Projections (3,8)
The independent variables used to forecast motor vehicles were
population and adjusted per capita income. It has been well documented
that economic variables are very important in forecasting demand for goods
and services. In the case of motor vehicles, it has been shown elsewhere
that adjusted per capita income is indeed a good indicator of future auto
ownership. Intuitively, it is very reasonable that growth in motor vehicles
is reflected by these two variables — population, to reflect the need for
more cars, and per capita income to reflect one's ability to buy cars.
The linear multiple-regression approach for forecasting autos not
only allows economic variables to be considered, but it allows economic
data specific to the region to be considered. One would certainly expect
regional economic activity to be significant in an area's ability to
purchase automobiles.
E-3
-------
In a similar fashion, commercial vehicles (trucks), motorcycles,
and regional gasoline consumption were also projected. Commercial vehicles
were projected on the basis of population and total earnings'for the
region, since commercial vehicles, by definition, are used primarily for
business purposes and therefore are dependent on the economic activity of
the region. (Total earnings, which is the summation of all earnings for
the majority of the major industrial and commercial activity, is an
accurate indicator of commercial business trends.) Motorcycles were
forecast using historical trend data for adjusted per capita personal
income. Since motorcycles have traditionally been a luxury item rather
than a necessity (except for a small minority), its population growth is
dependent on increased buying power. This is attested to by the fact that
the majority of motorcycles purchased are for recreational purposes rather
than to serve basic transportation needs.
Gasoline consumption was projected from the number of vehicles
and California Consumer Price Index. An increase in vehicles would imply
more consumption, just as changes in prices would be reflected in the
demand for gasoline. This is justified on the grounds that individuals
are conscious of gasoline prices, both implicitly as they purchase autos
which give better gas mileage, and explicitly as they shop around for the
lower-priced gasoline stations.
E-4
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Results of the Multiple Regression Analysis
The following regression equations developed for the Sacramento
2
area are accompanied by the coefficient of multiple determination (R )
and the tests of significance for each coefficient (t-score):
Automobiles
R2
t-score (population)
t-score (per capita income)
-303890.9 + 0.1688 (population)
+ 174.35 (per capita income)
.9912
1.97
8.31
Motorcycles
R2
t-score
-98855.5 + 36.3849 (per capita
income)
.9558
16.15
Commercial Vehicles
R2
t-score
Gasoline Consumption
R2
t-score (vehicles)
t-score (price index)
-30757.7 + 60.2704 (total earnings)
.9865
29.67
(population found to be not
significant for this variable)
-88.7 + 0.00077 (vehicles)
+ 1.35 (price index)
.9924
9.11
3.15
The resulting projections for all significant variables are presented in
Table E-l, together with the historical data used in the development of
the Regression equations.
E-5
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TABLE E-l. PROJECTIONS OF SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES FOR SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1977
1980
Price
Index
88.2
89.3
90.5
91.9
93.5
95.4
97.3
100.0
104.1
109.3
114.9
119.1
123.1
137.8
144.5
154.7
Per
Capita
Income
2760
2830
2905
2985
3065
3130
3210
3280
3335
3380
3425
3535
3680
4107
4420
4837
Population
732,900
769,000
805,000
832,300
854,200
876,900
893,600
902,800
906,600
918,700
935,400
940,000
950,000
1,010,000
1,050,000
1,107,200
Total
Earnings Gasoline
$ Millions Million Gal .
- Historical
1460
1540
1610
1700
1780
1870
1950
2040
2125
2160
2215
2340
2480
- Projected3
2905
3220
3719
_
263.4
276.4
293.3
309.6
327.8
341.0
358.3
366.1
385.2
404.4
422.7
437.7
454.6
546
603
680
Auto
Registration
299,119
316,980
345,119
357,727
375,874
397,780
401 ,846
408,602
426,839
441,142
453,120
475,106
499,561
582,662
643,987
726,346
Commercial
Vehicles
57,607
62,108
69.477
66,485
76,936
83,707
87,316
89,529
96,005
100,528
104,633
110,242
118,610
144,326
163,311
193,386
Motorcycles
3,943
4,375
5,655
8,913
11,775
14,172
17,195
18,734
21,200
24,356
29,736
33,409
34,083
50,557
61,944
77,115
m
01
a!975, 1977, 1980 values for gasoline consumption, auto registration, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles
are calculated by regression equations.
-------
REFERENCES
1. "California Statistical Abstract," California Department of
Finance, 1972.
2, "Population and Economic Activity in the United States and
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas," U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency and U. S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development, July 1972.
3., State of California Department of Motor Vehicles.
4.. University of California, Los Angeles, Biomedical Computer
Programs.
5,, "Provisional Projections of California Counties to 2000," State
of California, Department of Finance, Population Research Unit,
Sept. 1971.
6,. Branch, M. C., and Leong, E. Y., (Editors), "Air Pollution and City
Planning," Research Investigation -- Environmental Science and Engineering,
University of California, Los Angeles, 1972.
7. Personal communication with Pauline Sweezey, Economic Research
Unit, Department of Finance, State of California, April 30, 1973.
8. Polk, R. L., and Company, "Passenger Cars in Operation as of
July 1, 1972," National Vehicle Registration Service, compiled from
official California State records.
9. Division of Accounting, Controller of the State of California.
Data based on revenues collected from the 7tf per gallon gas tax.
10. Personal communication with Peggy St. George, Department of Motor
Vehicles, State of California, March 1973.
E~7
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APPENDIX F
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM DATA
This appendix contains (in raw form) data describing the current
and projected transportation system in the Sacramento Regional Area.
The data is presented herein without evaluation or comment. It has
been developed in the text of the main body of the report.
F-l
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TABLE F-l
SUMMARY OF MOTOR VEHICLE TRAVEL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTRASTATE AQCR
SACRAMENTO TRANSPORTATION STUDY AREA
Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel
(in thousands)
Sacramento
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Subtotal
Remainder of Sacramento
Transportation Study Area
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Subtotal
Areawide
Freeway and Expressway
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Arterial
Light-duty Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Local
Total
Areawide
Light-duty Vehicles*
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Total
1972
2,777
241
5,021
264
1,121
9,424
1,658
145
2,175
115
569
4,662
4,435
386
7,196
379
1,690
14.086
13,321
765
14,086
1975
3,454
300
5,405
284
1.276
10,719
2,057
179
2,299
121
647
5,303
5,511
479
7,704
405
1.923
16,021
15,138
884
16,022
1977
3,904
340
5,662
298
1.378
11,582
2,406
209
2,295
121
699
5,730
6,310
549
7,957
419
2.077
17.312
16,344
968
17,312
1980
4,582
398
6,046
318
1,532
12,876
3,010
262
2,205
116
778
6,371
7,592
660
8,251
434
2.310
19.247
18,153
1.094
19,247
Average
Speed
(mph')
55.. s
28. f<
15.0
60.0
38.8
25.0
57.4
57.4
31.8
31.8
18.4
38.6
44.7
39. C
* Ail local traffic assumed to be light-duty.
Source: Reference (1,2,3)
F-2
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TABLE F-2
SUMMARY OF 1980 C/D TRAVEL
Vehicle Minutes
Home-Work
Work-Other
Home-Shop
Home-Other
Other-Other
Resident External
Nonresident External
Through
Total
Vehicle Miles
Home-Work
Work-Other
Home-Shop
Home-Other
Other-Other
Resident External
Nonresident External
Through
Total
Home-Work
Work-Other
Home-Shop
Home-Other
Other-Other
Resident External
Nonresident External
Through
Total
Average Speed - Freeways
Total
.
6,465,154
2,932,790
2,499,485
7,680,946
6,136,376
2,072,546
2,769,101
939,952
31,496,350
3,852,344
1 ,741 ,786
1,372,718
4,616,859
3,543,071
1,785,384
2,424,718
961 ,404
20,298,284
Total
Trips
485,619
250,019
372,050
826,817
784,418
92,495
109,355
19,275
2,940,048
57.6 mph
City
Streets
4,444,877
1,978,771
2,061,446
5,730,841
4,670,862
818,645
993,917
68,287
20,767,646
2,041,875
885,280
967,359
2,753,833
2,168,529
517,585
619,304
53,021
10,006,786
Average
Speed
(mph)
35.8
35.6
33.0
36.1
34.6
51.7
52.5
61.4
38.7
Freeways
2,020,277
954,019
438,039
1,950,105
1,465,514
1,253,901
1,775,184
871 ,665
10,728,704
1,810,469
856,506
405,359
1,863,026
1,374,542
1,267,799
1,805,414
908,383
10,291,498
Average
Length
(Miles)
7.93
6.97
3.69
5.58
4.52
19.30
22.17
49.88
6.90
Average Speed - City Streets 28.9 mph
Average Speed - Total
38.7 mph
Source: Reference (2)
F-3
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Table F-3 summarizes the type of parking used at the destination
of all weekday driver trips recorded in the home interview survey. Also
shown is the type of parking facility used at the work place for all
weekday auto and pickup driver first trips to work.
TABLE F-3
TYPE OF PARKING FACILITY AT DESTINATION
Auto & Pickup
All Driver First Trip
Type of Parking Trips Percent To Work Percent
Street-Free 179,640 12.8
Street-Meter 12,440 0.9
Lot- Free 555,120 39.6
Lot-Paid 22,800 1.6
Garage 3,640 0.3
Service or Repairs 12,500 0.9
Residential Property 500,620 35.8
Cruised or Not Parked 113,260 8.1
Total 1,400,020 100.0
Source: Reference (4)
This table includes trips recorded in the
which passed through cordons. The trips shown
were trips in which no stops were made or only
off or pick up passengers.
15,100 9.1
1,020 0.6
132,380 79.8
10,620 6.4
1,360 0.8
60 0.0
2,580 1.6
2,760 1.7
165,880 100.0
home interview study
as cruised or not parked
momentary stops to drop
F-4
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TABLE F-4
TYPE OF PARKING IN SACRAMENTO CENTRAL CITY
All Driver
Type of Parking Trips
Street-Free 38,000
Street-Meter 9,880
Lot-Free 50,080
Lot-Paid 11,820
Garage 2,640
Service or Repairs 1,260
Residential Property 6,720
Cruised or Not Parked 11,880
Totals 132,280
Source: Reference (4)
Auto & Pickup
First Trip
Percent To Work Percent
28.7 7,240 20.3
7.5 900 2.5
37.9 18,660 52.5
8.9 7,160 20.1
2.0 1,200 3.4
0.9
5.1 60 0.2
9.0 340 1.0
100.0 35,560 100.0
In Sacramento central city, 66.6 percent of all parking was
lots or on-street parking (free).
to pay to park in the central city
area average.
in free
A total of 18.4 percent of drivers had
, over six times as many as the
study
F-5
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REFERENCES (APPENDIX F)
"SATS Base Year Report," Volume II, Home Interview Survey 1968,
State of California, Division of Highways, District 3, March 1971
"SATS 1980 Progress Report," Preliminary Draft, California
Division of Highways, March 1972.
Personal communication with Sate of California Division of
Highways, Transportation Planning staff personnel, April 1973.
"Sacramento Central City Comprehensive Parking Study," DeLeuw,
Gather and Company, March 1969.
F-6
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