AIR QUALITY IMPL
ATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT
CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGEN
JULY 1973
TRWk
TRANSPORTATION*
'ENVIRONMENTAL
'OPERATIONS
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04120
AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT
FOR CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS:
SUMMARY REPORT
JULY 1973
Contract No. 68-02-0048
Prepared by
TRANSPORTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL OPERATIONS OF TRW, INC.
One Space Park
Redonco Beach, California
for the
Environmental Protection Agency
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This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency
by TRW Transportation and Environmental Operations in fulfillment of
Contract Number 68-02-0048. The contents of this report are reproduced
herein as received from the contractor. The opinions, findings, and
conclusions are those of TRW and not necessarily those of the Environmental
Protection Agency. Mention of company or product names does not constitute
endorsement by the Environmental Protection Agency.
The results and conclusions developed herein are based, in part, on
the limited nature of present Air Quality Data and methodology used in
forecasting future air quality. Due to the short time schedule and limited
budget assigned for carrying out this project, some of the political,
institutional, legal and socio-economic implications of the proposed
transportation control strategy have not been fully assessed.
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FOREWORD
This report summarizes the results of several in-depth
studies of air pollution and its control in critical California
air basins. These reports, which appear under separate cover,
are entitled:
t Air Quality Implementation Plan Development for
Critical California Regions: San Francisco Bay
Intrastate AQCR
• Air Quality Implementation Plan Development for
Critical California Regions: Sacramento Vailey~
Intrastate AQCR
• Air Quality Implementation Plan Development for
Critical California Regions: San Joaquin Valley
Intrastate AQCR
The individual reports should be consulted for detailed
documentation of the results presented forthwith. For purposes
of brevity, the limitations of the analyses, analytical
methodologies and working assumptions leading up to the results
are similarly omitted in this summary.
The purpose of this report is to provide a brief overview
of the severity of air pollution within the regions studied and
an analysis of what control measures appear to be necessary for
attainment of established air quality goals. Each of the
reports cited above is self-contained and the reader is certainly
encouraged to refer to the individual reports for more details
regarding any region(s) of interest.
111
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 California and the Clean Air Act of 1970 - A Dilemma .... 2
1.2 Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations 3
1.3 Proposed Control Strategies 10
2.0 SUMMARY OF RESULTS 16
2.1 The San Francisco Bay Air Quality Control Region ...... 19
2.1.1 Regional Description ........ 19
2.1.2 Problem Definition 22
2.1.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectivness .... 26
2.2 The Sacramento Valley Air Quality Control Region 33
2.2.1 Regional Description 33
2.2.2 Problem Definition 37
2.2.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness . . 39
2.3 The San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Control Region 45
2.3.1 Regional Description 45
2.3.2 Problem Definition 49
2.3.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness . . 5Q
2.4 The Southeast Desert Air Quality Control Region . 72
2.4.1 The Transport Hypothesis 75
2.4.2 Geographical Pattern of Maximal Oxidant Time 77
2.4.3 Typical Wind Patterns 82
2.4.4 The Coachella Valley Air Quality Study by Pollution
Research and Control Corporation 84
2.4.5 Conclusion 87
3.0 SUMMARY OF IMPACTS 88
3.1 Economic Impacts 88
3.2 Social Impacts 88
3.2.1 Stationary Source Measures and Vehicle-Oriented Mobile
Source Measures 90
3.2.2 Impact on Mobility Patterns 91
3.2.2.1 Reducing Optional Trips 91
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
3.0 (Continued)
3.2.3 Impact on Accessibility 93
3.2.4 Impact on Mode Choice Decisions 93
3.2.5 Summary of Social Impacts 94
3.3 Public Attitude Surveys 96
4.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION 100
4.1 Procedure and Time Schedule 100
4.2 Agency Involvement 104
5.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION 107
5.1 Phase I Measures 107
5.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 107
5.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures 108
5.2 Phase II Measures 110
5.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 110
5.2.2 Mobile Source Control Measures Ill
APPENDIX A -- Public Attitude Survey A-l
A.I The Questionaire A-3
A.2 Detailed Findings - Auto Air Pollution A-8
A.3 Detailed Findings - Transportation Usage A-22
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page
2-1 San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR 20
2-2 Key Access Constraints Within the Bay Area 23
2-3 Trend of Average High-Hour Oxident Concentrations 25
2-4 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Francisco . . 27
Bay Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons
2-5 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Francisco . . 28
Bay Area - Carbon Monoxide
2-6 Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR 34
2-7 Population Density by Zone, Sacramento Regional Area 36
2-8 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento .... 40
Regional Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons
2-9 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento .... 41
Regional Area - Carbon Monoxide
2-10 San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR 47
2-11 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin ... 52
County - Reactive Hydrocarbons
2-12 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin ... 53
County - Carbon Monoxide
2-13 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno 59
County - Reactive Hydrocarbons
2-14 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno 60
County - Carbon Monoxide
2-15 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern 66
County - Reactive Hydrocarbons
2-16 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern 67
County - Carbon Monoxide
2-17 Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR 73
2-18 Geographical Distribution of Average Time of Oxidant Peak ... 78
2-19 Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the .... 79
Upper Southeast Desert and for Downtown Los.Angeles
2-20 Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the .... 81
Lower Southeast Desert and for Downtown Los Angeles
2-21 Air Flow Patterns - South Coast Air Basin 83
(October 1200-1800 PST)
2-22 Trajectories of Air Arriving at 2000 and 2100 PST 86
July 27, 1970
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
2-1 BASE YEAR, ROLLBACK, AND ALLOWED EMISSIONS FOR CRITICAL 17
CALIFORNIA REGIONS
2-2 SUMMARY OF PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGIES 18
2-3 POPULATION AND LAND AREA, SANFRANCISCO BAY AREA AIR BASIN .... 21
2-4 AIR POLLUTION IN THE BAY AREA (1971-1972) 24
2-5 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 29
1971,1975,1977,1980
2-6 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR EMISSION INVENTORY 30
AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
2-7 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 31
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (.1975-1980)
2-8 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 32
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
2-9 SUMMARY OF AIR QUALITY VIOLATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY . 38
AIR BASIN (1970-1972)
2-10 ANNUAL N02 CONCENTRATIONS IN SACRAMENTO COUNTY 39
2-11 SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 42
1972, 1975, 1977, 1980
2-12 SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA EMISSION INVENT 43
AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
2-13 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES 44
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS £1975-1980)
2-14 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES 45
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
2-15 SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 54
1971, 1975, 1977, 1980
2-16 SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I 55
CONTROL MEASURES
2-17 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 56
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
2-18 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES-- . . . 57
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
vm
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
2-19 FRESNO COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 61
1970, 1975, 1977, 1980
2-20 FRESNO COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I 62
CONTROL MEASURES
2-21 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES- 63
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980.)
2-22 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES- . .' 64
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
2-23 KERN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY 68
1971, 1975, 1977, 1980
2-24 KERN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I 69
CONTROL MEASURES
2-25 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 70
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
2-26 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES- 71
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
2-27 AIR QUALITY LEVELS MONITORED IN THE SOUTHEAST DESERT AQCR ... 74
(1970-1971)
2-28 PRINCIPAL AIR QUALITY MONITORING STATIONS 74
SOUTHEAST DESERT AQCR
2-29 COMPARATIVE STATISTICS FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND ........ 76
SOUTHEAST DESERT AIR BASINS (1970)
3-1 ESTIMATED UNIT COSTS OF CONTROL MEASURES 88
3-2 ESTIMATED REGIONAL COSTS FOR EACH MEASURE 89
3-3 SUMMARY OF SOCIAL IMPACTS . 95
4-1 PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIME SCHEDULE 101
4-2 AGENCY RESPONSIBILITY FOR CONTROL MEASURE IMPLEMENTATION 1Q5
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
In response to the requirements of the Clean Air Act of 1970 , all
states are to submit implementation plans to the Environmental Protection
Agency, describing how the promulgated National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS) are to be achieved within their states by 1975, or, at
the latest, 1977. For certain critical Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR's),
the development of definitive transportation control strategies has been
required to demonstrate attainment of the air quality standards by the
required dates.
In an attempt to assist the states engaged in these planning activities,
the EPA Office of Land Use Planning has funded a series of transportation
control studies for the major metropolitan areas with acute air pollution
problems (14 Cities Study). See, for example, Transportation Controls to
Reduce Motor Vehicle Emissions in Major Metropolitan Areas prepared by
GCA Corporation (Technology Division) and TRW, Inc. (Transportation and
Environmental Operations) for a summary of the results of these studies.
In California, where air pollution is a problem in numerous AQCR's,
only the Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate AQCR (South Coast Air Basin)
was examined in some detail in the 14 Cities Study (Transportation Control
Strategy Development for the Metropolitan Los Angeles Region) prepared by
Transportation and Environmental Operations of TRW, Inc. In an extension
of the work performed in the 14 Cities Study and, specifically, the Los
Angeles study, it was necessary for the EPA to evaluate the severity of
air pollution in other California AQCR's and, if warranted, to develop
transportation control strategies for these areas as well. This report
summarizes the results of control strategies developed for the
critical California AQCR's listed:
• San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR
• Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR
• San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR
Air Amendments of 1970 - P.L.91-604 (December 31, 1970)
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In addition, a brief study of air pollution transport into the Southeast
Desert Intrastate AQCR is presented. It is generally conceded that air
pollution into the desert areas east (i.e. downwind) of the Los Angeles
region is mainly due to transport of the pollution from the South Coast
Air Basin. The analysis conducted concurs with this viewpoint and presents
several sets of data to support the hypothesis.
Another region in California which experiences severe air pollution is
the San Diego Intrastate AQCR. At the time of this study, this region was
under analysis elsewhere. Consequently, no mention of controls needed for
this area are included in this report.
1.1 California and The Clean Air Act of 1970 - A Dilemma
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is directly responsible
for coordinating all air pollution control activities within the sitate.
This has entailed cooperation of local air pollution control agencies,
the state, and the Federal government -- primarily the Environmental
Protection Agency.
Under California law, local air pollution control districts have the
main responsibility for stationary source pollution control while the CARB
and EPA share the responsibility for motor vehicle emission control.
Overall, the CARB has been, and continues to be, a leader in the field of
air pollution control. On January 30, 1972, the CARB submitted to EPA a
comprehensive implementation plan for achieving the NAAQS in California
as required by law. Due to certain inadequacies of the plan, revisions
were requested to be resubmitted with more substantial technical
support by early 1973.
The acceptability of the revised state implementation plans wi.ll
be more critically evaluated than the original plans, due largely to the
decision of the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in
NRDC v. EPA, Case No. 72-1522 (January 31, 1973). This decision holds
that an adopted state implementation plan must contain measures which, if
implemented, would achieve the air quality standards by May 31, 1975.
The question of whether or not two year extensions will be granted will be
more strictly interpreted and based in part on a more detailed
justification.
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A basic requirement for any extension is that a source(s) cannot
meet the emission limitation needed to reach the standard within three
years because of the absence of technology. State requests for extension
must clearly demonstrate that technology is not or will not be available.
They must prove either that there are no alternatives or that of possible
alternatives under consideration, none is realistically feasible.
Should the above requirement for an extension be satisfied, the state
must also have considered and applied as part of its plan reasonably
available alternative means of attaining the standard, and justifiable con-
clusions why it cannot be done in three years. This means that in addition
to providing that specific sources for which exemptions are being sought
cannot comply by 1975, the state must also show that assuming noncompliance
by these sources, there is no other regulatory strategy which would allow
attainment of the standard.
It becomes clear from the above that the interpretation of what
constitutes an acceptable plan has changed dramatically since the reviews
of 1972. Herein lies the dilemma which several regions face in California.
The probability of areas in California with acute air pollution attaining
the air quality standards by 1975 or even 1977 appears to be small.
Very simply, numerous measures were evaluated for their effectiveness,
implementability, and impact on the region. Control schemes which appear
to be implementable were largely ineffective or only moderately effective
at reducing air pollution. More effective measures, however, were those
which appeared least likely to be implemented because of the adverse effect
associated with them. A variety of issues -- technical, legal, institutional,
and socio-economic -- remain to be addressed in the short terra regarding
the optimal air pollution control strategy for each of the regions.
1.2 Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations
The following summarize the major findings, conclusions, and
recommendations that have emerged as a result of these studies. While
there are encouraging signs that air pollution control efforts are
significantly improving air quality in critical California regions, there
is also concern that the pace with which the air quality is being
improved is very slow. This is especially so given the tight time constraints
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mandated by the Clean Air Act of 1970. Serious doubts exist regarding
the ability of large urban systems to make the necessary adjustments to
meet the promulgated air quality standards. It is clear that technological
solutions are insufficient, in and of themselves, to bring about the
desired cleanup within this decade. Only a significant change in lifestyles
(requiring individual sacrifices), coupled with technological remedies,
offer hope toward a rapid improvement in air quality and assurance that
these levels will be maintained.
Findings:
t Recent air quality data for photochemical oxidants
indicate that oxidant concentrations are significantly
above the National Ambient Air Quality Standard in all
of the regions examined. Violations of the oxidant
standard are both widespread and frequent, especially
during the summer months.
Photochemical oxidants continue to be the major air pollution problem
in the regions studied -- San Francisco, Sacramento, San Joaquin Valley,
and Southeast Desert. It is unlikely in the foreseeable future that
attainment of this NAAQS will not be the limiting constraint for the
region's ability to achieve all of the NAAQS. Air quality trends have
shown significant improvements at some monitoring stations, with a marked
worsening of air quality at other stations. Overall, there is justifiable
concern over the present rate of air quality improvements witnessed in
various regions.
• The topography and climate of critical California
regions are conducive to the formation and accumu-
lation of high oxidant levels.
Each of the critical California regions studied exhibited certain
geographical and meteorological characteristics which contribute directly
to the severe air quality levels observed. Generally, temperature inver-
sions accompanied by low wind speeds are typical; valley regions which
serve to funnel and concentrate pollutants are also commonplace. Finally,
the warm climate with intense solar radiation provides all the necessary
energy to initiate the photochemical reactions leading to oxidant
formation.
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• Mobile source emissions are and will continue to
be the major contributors to the air pollution problem;
due to projected controls, however, their relative
contribution to the problem is slowly decreasing.
Presently, mobile source emissions, primarily from light-duty
vehicles, are the major source of emissions in the regions studied. However,
with currently projected Federal and state motor vehicle control programs,
the relative percentage contribution of these sources decreases. Even with
a host of control devices, though, light duty vehicles will continue to be
a large fraction of all emissions because of the sheer number of vehicles
i nvolved.
• Aircraft, motorcycle, and heavy duty vehicle
emissions are significant, minor sources of
pollution; these sources become more significant
as the target dates for compliance to air quality
standards near.
Presently, minor sources of air pollution which are largely uncontrolled
include aircraft, motorcycles, heavy duty gasoline and diesel powered vehicles.
As more and more sources are tightly controlled, the emissions from these
uncontrolled sources become more important. By 1975-77, these sources will
be very significant in the overall emission inventories. Growth rates for
certain uncontrolled sources, e.g. motorcycles, aircraft, are projected to
be fairly rapid in the short term, placing additional importance on these
emissions.
t Existing and projected transit services can
handle modest increases in ridership over the
short term.
In their present modes of operation, efficient transit services must
operate at near capacity during peak periods. To do otherwise, would
probably mean operating losses. Therefore, most transit services can only
handle modest increases in ridership in the near term. Larger increases
in ridership would necessitate acquiring additional buses or transit
service capability. Both require large sums of additional funding which
may or may not be available.
• The present life styles of the San Francisco,
Sacramento Valley, and San Joaquin Valley regions
appear incompatible with the established air quality
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goals; any foreseeable solution (if it exists),
will have a major impact on the socio-economic
fiber of the regions.
With the exception of certain areas in the San Francisco region
(e.g. downtown, Oakland), all of the areas studied are largely automobile
dependent for satisfying personal transportation needs. This is largely
due to the existing land use patterns -- typically sprawling low-density
development -- which have developed in the regions. The development of
transportation systems dependent on an extensive grid of highways has
further accentuated this dependence on private auto use. Finally, increased
affluence and the status accompanying automobile ownership have also directly
contributed to the almost complete reliance on autos for all trip making
purposes.
These contributing factors — land use patterns, transportation
system development, and affluence, all represent the gradual evolution of
present life styles and patterns. Air quality objectives are largely
incompatible with these life styles since they require substantial changes
in developed social patterns. Solutions alleviating the severe
pollution experienced will result in impacts on the regions' residents.
• A multiplicity of agencies and organizations
would be involved and/or affected by attempts
to implement certain control measures; it
appears that funding and institutional constraints
will be very significant for many of the measures
evaluated.
The control measures being contemplated for implementation will
directly or indirectly affect many local, regional, state, and Federal
agencies. In fact, successful implementation of these measures will
be dependent on close cooperation and assistance from many of these
groups. It is uncertain at this time what problems are likely to be
encountered in soliciting such aid. For certain measures, additional
funds not presently designated will be required to implement some of
the more costly controls.
Numerous public and private interest groups are also likely to be
affected by the proposed controls. In an attempt to anticipate and
minimize institutional constraints, these groups should be involved in
the review and development of proposed control strategies.
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• The required enabling legislation to allow for
several high priority control measures (e.g. mandatory
inspection/maintenance and catalytic converter retrofit)
will be difficult to obtain during the 1973 legislative
session.
One of the most formidable obstacles to implementing various control
measures in California has been the passage of key legislation. For years,
despite the severity of air pollution and the public attention devoted
to it, legislation to enable instituting important control measures has
been consistently and repeatedly defeated. Again, this year, several bills
which would lead to additional air pollution control have been introduced
for consideration. As in years past, it appears most of the bills will die
in various committees for a variety of reasons -- technical, economic,
political.
Conclusions:
• Presently planned stationary and mobile source
controls are inadequate for achieving the ambient
air quality goals in the San Francisco, Sacramento,
and San Joaquin Valley regions; therefore, additional
control measures are clearly indicated.
The ongoing and proposed Federal and state motor vehicle control
programs will result in substantial emission reductions both over the long
and short terms. In addition, tightening of present controls on
stationary sources will result in significant emission reductions.
However, due to the severity of air pollution in the critical California
regions studied, more controls are necessary to attain the NAAQS. Of the
regions plagued with severe air pollution, San Francisco appears to require
the most extensive set of control measures.
• In 1977, attainment of the air quality standards
through additional light duty vehicle controls
would almost require their complete elimination.
Currently, light duty motor vehicles are the largest single con-
tributor to the overall pollution problem. By 1977, with anticipated
new and used car controls, the individual vehicular emissions will have
declined markedly. Although these emissions will still be very important,
the severe air pollution control requirements necessitate additional
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controls which in all probability cannot be met realistically by further
control of light duty vehicles alone.
t Controls on motorcycles, aircraft, and heavy duty
vehicles could result in significant reductions by
1975-77.
As present and projected controls take their full effect, minor
sources such as motorcycles, aircraft, and heavy duty vehicles, which are
largely uncontrolled, become important sources of pollution. A variety
of factors have contributed to these categories remaining relatively
uncontrolled, ranging from technological and economic considerations to
political and institutional constraints. In view of the tight controls
being imposed on all other categories, equity considerations alone require
that controls for these sources be imposed where possible in the near
future.
• Annual inspection/maintenance is necessary to
obtain the full benefit of Federal and state
vehicle emission control programs.
Numerous studies have indicated the emission reduction potential of
a mandatory inspection/maintenance program. It will be more important as
vehicle emission control systems become more complex and prone to failure.
Several options are available for implementation with the major obstacle
presently being obtaining the required enabling legislation to institute
such a program. Repeated attempts have been made to require such a
program in critical California areas; to date, all have failed. The
chances for passage of an inspection/maintenance law in this legislative
session appear promising but if passed, only the South Coast Air Basin
(i.e., Los Angeles region) will be affected.
• Catalytic converter retrofits offer major emission
reduction potential. However, questions regarding
the availability of lead free fuel and the wide-
spread applicability of the devices remain unanswered.
It appears that most automobile manufacturers will be relying
heavily on oxidizing catalytic converters for meeting the stringent
1975-76 new car exhaust standards. Concurrently, these devices have been
widely studied for use as a retrofit device on used cars. Preliminary
data show large emission reductions are possible with these retrofits.
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In addition to resolving some technical questions concerning the devices,
the relatively high cost of catalytic converters poses implementation
obstacles.
• Presently planned transportation improvement
programs will result in very minor air quality
improvements.
Traditionally, transportation system improvements have centered on
increasing speed, mobility, and access. As a result, many of these efforts
have resulted in increasing VMT. While reducing carbon monoxide emissions
under certain conditions (e.g. congested CBD's), these programs do not
alleviate photochemical oxidant problems. If anything, increased VMT
generally results in an aggravated oxidant problem.
• Control measures directed at reducing regional VMT
appear to offer only modest gains towards the air
quality objectives.
Evaluation of numerous control measures for reducing VMT revealed
several key points: a) motorists tend to show a high resistance to
disincentives to driving the car, whether they be in the form of time or
monetary penalties or outright restrictions, and b) areas presently well
served by transit already have high ridership levels indicating only
modest VMT reductions are possible by even higher transit patronage.
• VMT reduction measures which offer the greatest
potential generally affect areas utilizing public
transit the most; therefore, issues of equity are
raised.
As stated above, incentives to discourage widespread auto usage
are generally most effective in areas which are well served by public
transit. These areas are also the same regions which experience the
highest levels of transit usage. Conversely, areas which are spread
out and predominantly automobile dependent show the least response to
incentives encouraging other modes of transportation. This is, of
course, directly related to readily available alternative modes of
transportation. Therefore, as measures are developed for reducing VMT,
it is necessary to be aware of the inequities which result from placing
inordinate VMT reduction burdens on areas utilizing public transit the
most. It is these considerations which point out the need for better
land use controls.
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Recommendations: (See Section 1.3)
It is recommended that the Phase I control measures be implemented
as quickly as possible. The continuation of the state's ongoing motor
vehicle control program plus these measures should result in a significant
improvement of the air quality by 1975-77. The final decision regarding
the implementation of the Phase II measures should be deferred until a
careful analysis is made of the impact of such measures upon the residents
of the region. Many issues noted in the report remain to be resolved.
One critical issue which must be resolved is the short term requirements
being imposed by the Clean Air Act of 1970. If the San Francisco,
Sacramento, and San Joaquin Valley regions can be directed toward less
automobile dependence through long range planning in land use and trans-
portation, every effort should be made to allow for this smooth transition.
This implies that short term controls which may be counterproductive to long
range goals should be carefully weighed before full implementation.
1.3 Proposed Control Strategies
The following measures comprise control methods evaluated and
deemed applicable to some or all of the regions analyzed in the study.
The proposed control strategies fully recognize inadequacies in the data
analyzed; the information presented represents as accurate a portrayal as
possible of the air pollution situation given the limits and constraints
imposed upon the study. Directionally, the implementation of many or all of
the controls will result in significantly improved air quality. In a
technical sense, the proposed plan should allow for attainment of the air
quality standards by the 1977 target date.
In general, implementation of Phase I measures can be justified on
the basis of air quality improvements at reasonable costs and with minor
social impacts. The impact of implementing the Phase II control measures
is staggering, both in terms of economic costs and societal disruptions
which would result from their institution. Also, it is not clear at this
time whether some of these measures are technologically feasible and/or
effective. Further evaluation and testing is clearly warranted for these
measures before they can be advocated on a wide-spread basis.
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The necessity for Phase II control measures results from insufficient
emission reductions being demonstrably achieved from the Phase I measures.
The choice of which additional controls will actually be implemented
remains to be decided. The measures listed in this analysis were chosen
somewhat arbitrarily and are used more for illustrative purposes. They
are intended to indicate the severity of additional controls which appear
to be necessary to achieve the NAAQS. Other measures could easily have
been considered. To some extent, Phase II control measures were aimed at
controlling heretofore uncontrolled sources, e.g. motorcycles, heavy duty
vehicles. The difficulty of achieving additional controls after the
Phase I measures can be briefly summarized:
• By 1975-77, no single source category predominates
in the emission inventory; that is, all categories
contribute a little to the overall problem.
• Major pollution sources, e.g. stationary sources,
light duty vehicles, will be stringently controlled
by 1975-77, and additional controls on these sources
will be difficult to achieve.
t Minor pollution sources, e.g. motorcycles, heavy
duty vehicles, although uncontrolled, continue to be
a relatively small contributor to the problem;
therefore, controls on these categories will have
only minor impact.
The control measures outlined are not new and have been proposed
elsewhere; no "magic" solution was found and only incremental improvements
can be expected from each control. Over the short term, large emission
reductions will result from presently planned programs at all levels of
government -- Federal, state, and local. By the years 1975-77, the
remaining uncontrolled emissions will come from many sources, the
majority of which are controlled. At this point in time, incremental
air quality improvements become more difficult, expensive, disruptive,
and publicly unacceptable. However, the severity of the air pollution
left few alternatives for measures which would be adequate to accomplish
the program requirements.
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Phase I Measures (Recommended):
1. Gasoline Evaporative Loss Controls - It is evident that as exhaust
hydrocarbon emissions are more stringently controlled, the percentage
contribution of hydrocarbon emissions from evaporative losses due to
normal gasoline handling and transfer operations will increase signifi-
cantly. Therefore, it is recommended that controls be required to either
prevent or capture these vapor losses before escaping to the atmosphere.
Control systems for certain transfer operations are presently available
and should be installed as quickly as possible — bulk terminals, under-
ground storage tanks.
2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - Spurred in part by their
contribution to the air pollution problem, the paint and varnish industry
has for some time been engaged in research and development of less pollut-
ing surface coating formulations. Examples of new formulations entering
these markets are water-based or high solids content products. It has
been estimated by representatives in the industry that significant inroads
can be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute less reactive surface
coatings for certain applications.
3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - Certain large dry cleaning plants
continue to use reactive petroleum solvents in their normal operations.
In these plants, it is possible to install activated carbon adsorption
systems to control solvent vapors.
4. Degreaser Substitution - In areas with acute air pollution, substi-
tution of less reactive solvents for presently used degreaser solvents is
a control measure which can readily be implemented.
5. Burning Regulation - Both current and proposed California Air Resources
Board regulations for backyard, agricultural, and lumber industry incineration
practices are aimed at either restricting incineration or requiring more
efficient burning practices. It is estimated that such regulation will result
in significant reductions in emissions in 1975 and 1977.
6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - In an attempt to derive the full
benefit from both new and used car emission controls, it is recommended
that a mandatory annual inspection/maintenance program be established.
Initially, to minimize many of the administrative and technical problems
12
-------
associated with instituting such a program, it is recommended that an
idle emissions test only be required at the state owned and operated test
facilities. After the program has been operative for several years and
most of the administrative details adequately worked out, it is recommended
that a loaded emissions testing program be instituted by upgrading the
testing facilities with the necessary additional equipment and personnel.
7. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - The California Air Resources Board
has been and is currently evaluating catalytic converters as a retrofit
for pre-1974 vehicles. Preliminary data indicate that large emission
reductions are possible with these devices. The CARS has proposed wide-
spread use of this retrofit as a measure for meeting the NAAQS, even
though questions relating to the availability of lead free fuel and the
overall applicability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles remain
unresolved. Catalysts developed to date require the use of lead-free
gasoline to prevent poisoning of the catalytic element. It remains to
be seen what percentage of the older vehicles can operate satisfactorily
on lead-free gasoline.
8. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - The California Air Resources Board has
accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon and oxides of nitrogen
emissions from 1955-1965 vehicles. These devices have thus far been
required-only in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins.
The devices are essentially a vacuum spark advance disconnect (VSAD) with
a thermal override switch to prevent overheating, or an electronic
ignition system.
9. Aircraft Emission Controls - Current industry attempts to reduce
smoke and particulate emissions from certain aircraft classes will also
result in reductions of other air pollutants. These reductions have been
estimated and incorporated into the aircraft emission inventory baseline.
In addition, it appears that additional reductions can be achieved by
modifying presently practiced ground operation procedures. This control
is most applicable to major airport activity centers for which it is
proposed.
10. Mass Transit - The level of mass transit available presently is
totally inadequate to handle any substantial increases in ridership.
Improving mass transit both in terms of frequency and efficiency of
13
-------
service and breadth of coverage in areas served, is a necessary first
step to attract additional riders. It is also needed for making any
measures which discourage private auto use more effective. Finally,
should the Phase II measures be implemented, it is imperative as an
alternative mode of transportation. A much closer examination should be
given to establishing express bus and carpool lanes on certain freeways.
Park-and-ride facilities, as well as bicycling, should be encouraged in
more areas of the basin.
Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted):
1. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Application of the Phase I
control measures on organic solvent uses will result in significant
hydrocarbon emission reductions. However, if warranted, it appears that
additional reductions may be achievable. These additional reductions will
be increasingly difficult to obtain since the remaining emissions are
either under tight control already, or the sources are very minor and
diffuse, making them difficult to bring under control. Examples of this
latter category are organic solvent uses in printing operations, pharmaceu-
tical uses, insecticide/pesticide applications, rubber tire manufacturing,
plastic and putty manufacturing, etc. Individually, the sources are minor;
in their composite they are presently a significant uncontrolled source
category. As an alternative, it is certainly recommended that a closer
examination be made of these minor polluters.
2. Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - As shown previously,
uncontrolled motorcycle emissions are projected to be among the highest
of any motor vehicle type on a grams per mile basis. Their overall
contribution to the pollution problem has been minor due to the relatively
small number of vehicles and annual mileages accumulated. However, as the
number of motorcycles increases (uncontrolled) and as more controls are
imposed on light and heavy duty vehicles, their emission contribution
will become significant. Two-stroke motorcycles, especially, are
notoriously high emitters. In view of the projected importance of this
source category, a ban on motorcycles during the summer months when smog
is most intense, is a possible control measure. Part of the rationale
for this control is that motorcycles are used primarily for recreational
purposes, rather than for essential trip-making.
?4
-------
3. Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance, Catalytic Converter
and Evaporative Retrofit - For essentially the same reasons outlined
under light duty vehicles, mandatory inspection/maintenance for heavy duty
vehicles can be an effective control measure. Limited test data is avail-
able and has demonstrated its feasibility and effectiveness as a control
measure.
Heavy Duty Catalytic Converter and Evaporative Retrofit - Again,
a limited amount of data exists demonstrating the effectiveness and
feasibility of heavy duty catalytic converter and evaporative retrofits
as potential control measures. More extensive field testing is necessary,
however, before widespread implementation of these measures can be
warranted.
4. Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit - Still another retrofit
being considered for light duty vehicles (pre-1970) is an evaporative
control device. The CARB is currently investigating the feasibility of
this type of device and if demonstrated effective, they may advocate its
use. Others have pointed to the need for such controls but actual working
prototypes and field testing data are limited at this time. The technical
obstacles appear to be impeding widespread application of this control
measure. Also, since the device is to be used on pre-1970 vehicles, its
effectiveness decreases with time due to normal attrition of vehicles
which can be retrofitted with such devices.
5. VMT Reduction through Gasoline Rationing - As a last resort,
or after implementation of all Phase I measures, additional
reductions can be achieved by a program to reduce vehicle miles travelled
(VMT) through gasoline rationing. In light of recent publicity declaring
gasoline shortages and/or the energy crises, the public appears to be
ready to accept a modest level of fuel rationing. Rationing should be
viewed strictly as an interim control to achieve modest reductions.
Attempts to impose large scale rationing upon the public will result in
numerous undesirable consequences. The effectiveness of gasoline rationing
decreases as vehicular exhaust emission characteristics decrease. In fact,
if massive rationing is contemplated, the value of extensive retrofit
programs becomes somewhat questionable.
15
-------
2.0 SUMMARY OF RESULTS
This chapter summarizes the impacts of the proposed control
strategies for the San Francisco, Sacramento, and San Joaquin Valley
regions. In San Francisco, the control strategy is to be applied over
the entire Air Quality Control Region, as designated by the California
Air Resources Board. In the Sacramento Valley, the control measures
are recommended for a five county sub-regional portion of the air basin.
Similarly in the San Joaquin Valley, control strategies were developed
for only portions of the basin, namely, Kern, Fresno, and San Joaquin
counties.
Table 2.1 shows the data used to determine the required emission
reduction for each area, based on a straight percentage rollback technique.
The base year listed is the year in which the highest pollutant measurement
during or after 1970 was recorded. Table 2-2 summarizes the control
measures assessed during the study for each of the regions examined.
Although not readily apparent from the table, there are significant
differences in each individual region's current control programs. For
example, San Francisco has an existing set of regulations for control of
organic solvent usage (i.e. similar to Los Angeles County's "Rule 66").
Counties in the San Joaquin Valley are just now in the process of imple-
menting similar regulations (due to take effect beginning January, 1974).
Similarly, certain motor vehicle retrofit programs which are in effect or
due to be in effect for various California air basins have different time
schedules for implementation. This was done to allow for trial programs
in the most acutely polluted regions first in order to ensure the effective-
ness and workability of the programs (e.g. 1966-70 retrofit and 1955-65
retrofit programs).
16
-------
TABLE 2-1. BASE YEAR, ROLLBACK REQUIRED, AND
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS FOR CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS
Base
Region Year
San Francisco 1971
Bay AQCR
Sacramento 1972
Regional Area
(5 Counties)
Kern 1971
County
Fresno 1970
County
San Joaquin 1971
County
Air Quality
In Base Year
Maximum
Maximum '8-Hour
One-Hour Carbon
Oxidant Monoxide
(ppm) (ppm)
.36 17
.28 10
.22 14
.21 11
.20 17
Federal
Standards
Maximum
One-Hour
Oxidant
(ppm)
.08
.08
.08
.08
.08
Maximum
8-Hour
Carbon
Monoxide
(ppm)
9
9
9
9
9
Rollback
Required From
Base Year
Reactive
Hydro-
Carbons
78%
71*
64%
62%
60%
Carbon
Monoxide
47%
10%
36%
18%
47%
Base Year
Emissions
Reactive
Hydro- Car bo
Carbons Monox
567 2573
119 690
.Allowable
Emissions
(tons/day)
Reactive
n Hydro-
ide Carbons
125
34.5
47.5 383 17.1
52.2 331
19.8
38.9 213 15.6
Carbon
Monoxide
1364
621
245
271
113
-------
TABLE 2-2. SUMMARY OF PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGIES
Control Measure San
Phase I Measures (Recommended)
Gasoline marketing controls
Organic surface coating substitution
Dry cleaning vapor control
Degreaser substitution
Burning regulations
Aircraft controls
Inspection/maintenance
Catalytic converter retrofit
1966-70 retrofit
Mass transit improvements
Phase II Measures (If demonstrably
warranted)
Additional organic solvent use
controls
Motorcycle ban during smog season
Heavy-duty vehicle I/M and retrofits
Light-duty vehicle evap. retrofit
Gasoline rationing
Francisco
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Sacramento
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
San Joaquin
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
18
-------
2.1 San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR
The San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR, also known as the San Francisco
Bay Area Air Basin, consists of all of seven counties — namely, Alameda,
Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Napa --
and portions of two others — southwestern Solano and southern
Sonoma.
2.1.1 Regional Description
Topographically, it resembles a shallow bowl with a low central
bay area, rimlike mountains, and connecting valleys. The region covers
more than 5,000 square miles and includes some 4.6 million people and
2.7 million motor vehicles. Figure 2-1 presents a map of the region and
illustrates its location within California.
Table 2-3 and Figure 2-1 illustrate the vast differences in intensity
of human activity over the nine county region. San Francisco County holds
more than 15 percent of the region's population in less than one percent of
its land area, while included portions of Napa, Sonoma and Solano Counties
together hold less than nine percent of the region's population in 32 per-
cent of its land area. A narrow bayside plain extends for a distance of
100 miles along the central and southern portions of the Bay, containing
almost uninterrupted urban development. This strip, comprising only some
ten percent of the region's land area, holds 80 percent of the regional
population and some 90 percent of its employment. The lineal pattern
of development has helped maintain a strong regional focus on the San
Francisco CBD with a surrounding concentration of higher density develop-
ment in the remainder of San Francisco, Daly City, and older low-lying
sections of Oakland and Berkeley. The remainder of the Bay Area is of
lower density, and highly auto-oriented, not unlike development in other
cities in the Western United States. In 1980 about three-quarters of Bay
Area residents are expected to live in what the Bay Area Transportation
Study termed low density areas -- zones with less than ten dwelling units
per net residential area.
19
-------
Regional Focus -
San Francisco CBD
Location Of
Basin
SantaJLosa
Higher Density --
San Francisco,
Daly City,
Berkeley,
Oakland
Lower Density —
Remainder
Urban Area
Steep Topography
SAN
FRANCIS
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments
Figure 2-1 San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR
20
-------
TABLE 2-3. POPULATION AND LAND AREA
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AIR BASIN
County
ATameda
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
County's
Population
In Basin - 1970
1,063,800
558,100
203,300
79,400
699,200
556,000
1,070,000
124,500
178,900
4,533,200
% of Basin's
Population
23.5
12.3
44.5
1.8
15.4
12.3
23.6
2.7
3.9
100.0
% of County's
Population
In Basin
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
79.
87.2
Area in 9
Basin (Mr)
733
733
520
787
45
447
1300
358
620
5,543
% of Basin's
Land Area
13.2
13.2
9.4
14.2
0.8
8.1
23.4
6.5
11.2
100.0
Population
Density 7
(Persons/Mi*)
1451
761
391
101
15,338
447
823
348
289
818
Source: California Air Resources Board
-------
The region's urban corridors are linked together by a limited
number of bridges, tunnels, and freeway facilities. Often only one
critical link exists across a topographic barrier, forming a natural
constriction on vehicular flow (Figure 2-2), a factor which contributes
to relatively high transit usage in commuting. About 55 percent of the
commuting to the San Francisco CBD is by transit, while roughly 20 per-
cent of all Bay area employees traveling over ten miles prefer bus or
rail over the automobile. The climate of the San Francisco Bay Area is
typical of California coastal zones. Late fall and winter are cool and
windy and experience the greatest part of the region's moderate rainfall.
Spring weather is variable. Most summer days are dry and sunny.
Wind patterns in the basin vary as a function of location and as
a function of both time of day and season. The most frequent daylight
pattern is a moderate sea breeze radiating from the coast and Central Bay
area. In the evenings, the wind direction frequently reverses to a land
breeze. Air movement and stability are usually dominated by the Pacific
high pressure zone and the associated subsidence temperature inversion.
The inversion is strongest during the summer and early fall, varying daily
from 1,000 to 3,000 feet.
Winds normally provide adequate ventilation to the Bay Area. However,
during the summer and early fall, the persistent temperature inversion is
sometimes accompanied by nearly stagnant wind conditions. This situation
leads to excessive accumulation of pollutants. Since such days are
associated with moderate to high temperature and solar radiation, a
photochemical smog problem results.
2.1.2 Problem Definition
Air quality measurements taken in the San Francisco region reveal
air pollution to be a severe problem. The severity of the air pollution
can be shown by several indices -- the geographical extent of the problem
and the number of days per year various standards are violated. The
extent of the problem is summarized in Table 2-4, which displays the
highest readings and number of days certain levels were exceeded at various
sites throughout the basin. As shown, maximum oxidant readings often exceed
the air quality standard by more than four-fold. Due to moderately favorable
climatology, the frequency of violations at any given station is at most,
about one day in seven.
-------
San Francisco
Access Constraints
1. San Francisco -
Oakland Bay Bridge
Golden Gate Bridge
I 280
Bayshore Freeway
(U.S.101)
Other Access
Constraints
Caldecott Tunnel
(CH 24)
Dublin Canyon
(I 580)
San Mateo Bridge
Dumbarton Bridge
Carquinez Bridge
Richmond-San Rafael
Bridge
Source: Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Figure 2-2. Key Access Constraints Within the Bay Area
23
-------
TABLE 2-4. AIR POLLUTION IN THE BAY AREA
(1971-1972)
Location of
Stations
San Francisco
San Rafael
Richmond
Pittsburg
Walnut Creek
Oakland
San Leandro
Fremont
Li vermore
San Jose
Redwood City
Burl ingame
Petal uma
Napa
Vallejo
Fairfield
Los Gates
Mountain View
Santa Rosa
OXIDANT
1971
1 2
Haxitnuir Violations
.19 2
.13 9
.28 7
.20 23
.23 . 36
.31 10
.36 21
.33 45
.23 52
.15 14
.28 17
.17 5
.12 6
.14 9
.19 11
.10 12
-
-
"* ™
1972
Maximum Violations
.08 0
.17 5
.12 7
.19 25
.17 30
.12 1
.17 15
.34 44
.22 27
.20 19
.28 17
.14 8
.07 0
.18 20
.26 15
.13 4
.21 15
.19 10
"" '-, ""
CARBON MONOXIDE
1 9 1 1
3 4
Maximum Violations
11 3
8 0
13 1
6 0
_
11 2
-
9 0
8 0
17 * 12
7 0
10 1
-
9 0
13 6
-
_ _
_ _
'
1972
Maximum Violations
11.7 1
7.7 0
9.1 0
5.1 0
7.2 0
6.5 0
6.5 0
13.8 11
9.2 0
9.9 0
7.4 0
12.1 5
_
-
NITROGEN
DIOXIDE
1971
wnnua i
Averaae
.027
.024
.021
.022
_
.040
-
.025
.034
.030
-
.013
.018
—
_
_
.020
ro
Highest hourly average in ppm
2
Number of days one hour average of 0.10 ppm was exceeded
Highest 12-hour average in ppm
4
Number of days 12-hour average of 10 ppm was exceeded
Source: Bay Area Air Pollution Control District
-------
.30T
.25
^.20 +
1.
o.
.15-
X
o
rsj
01
.10
.05
San Francisco x
San Rafael O
San Leandro •
San Jose %
Redwood City A
Walnut Creek D
Liver-more A
Six-Station
District Average
(excluding Liver-more)
62
63
64
65
66
67
YEAR
68
69
70
71
72
Figure 2-3.
Trend of Average High-Hour Oxidant Concentrations for Days with Comparable Temperature
and Inversion Conditons (April through October Photochemical Oxidant Seasons, 1962-1971)
Source: Bay Area Air Pollution Control District
-------
It is interesting to note that many of the Los Angeles regional
characteristics are also prevalent in the San Francisco Bay Area. Overall,
the population density in the San Francisco Bay Area is less than the Los
Angeles region. Only San Francisco County has a high population density
(15,338 persons/square mile) compared to the region, i.e. 818 persons/
square mile).
The severest air pollution does not occur in the most active center
or highest density area, but rather downwind of these areas. For example,
in the South Coast Air Basin, the most critical problem areas are places
like Riverside, Indio, and Banning -- areas east of downtown Los Angeles.
In the San Francisco region, severe problems exist in San Leandro, Fremont,
and Livermore -.- all regions downwind of the more populous urban centers.
Even areas on the outskirts of the airshed experience pollution and it has
frequently been suggested that pollution from the Bay Area spills over into
adjacent areas, e.g., the Sacramento Valley Air Basin. This is analogous
to transport of pollutants in the Southeast Desert from the South Coast Air
Basin.
Overall, the recent trends for the Bay Area show a significant
improvement in air quality over the past few years. The majority of
monitoring stations have shown improvements with only a couple of sites
experiencing more adverse conditions (Figure 2-3).
2.1.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness
The following figures and tables present both the baseline data
and effectiveness of the various control measures for reactive hydro-
carbons and carbon monoxide. The effectiveness due to each measure can
be seen in relation to those allowable emissions which are necessary to
meet the standards. The baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state,
and local controls which are already, or will be, in effect on all types
of sources. The curve for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction
due to the proposed Phase I control measures, which affect light duty
vehicles only. Other curves show the reductions due to stationary source
controls, aircraft ground operation controls, and Phase II controls.
26
-------
600
(1) Baseline
(2) Stationary Source Controls
(3) Motor Vehicle Controls
(4) Aircraft Controls
5) Phase II "Without" Gasoline Rationing
6) Phase LI "With" Gasoline Rationing
500
400
GO
o
300
200
100
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(125 Tons/Day)
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 2-4. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
For San Francisco Bay Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons
(1970-1980)
27
-------
2500
2000
1500
oo
o
1000
ALLOWABLE _EMI_SSIONS
(1364 TONS/DAY)
500
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
(3) Aircraft Controls
+
+
4-
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 2-5. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
For San Francisco Bay Area - Carbon Monoxide
(1972-1980)
28
-------
TABLE 2-5. SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977, 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Oegreasing
Other
Chemical Industries
Incineration and
Agricultural Burning
Fuel Combustion:
Steam Power Plants
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Other:
Mineral, Food, Lumber,
and Metallurgical
Subtotal -Stationary
Ai rcraf t
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
54
126
210
24
46
80
21
8
1
2
17
589
34
362
23
9
13
1030
RHC
5
117
42
5
9
16
-
1
-
_
-
195
31
301
19
9
12
567
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
58
62
8
186
14
326
20
78
-
624
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
27
25
-
21
10
92
110
2137
131
54
49
2573
1975
THC
61
142
222
25
49
85
25
8
1
2
20
642
38
209
23
10
17
939
RHC
6
132
44
5
10
17
1
-
-
-
215
34
170
19
10
15
463
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
61
66
10
195
21
273
22
103
-
614
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
32
25
-
.
12
78
152
1301
149
62
60
1802
1977
THC
64
150
229
26
51
88
27
8
1
2
22
670
38
154
22
10
19
913
RHC
6
140
46
5
10
18
-
1
-
_
-
225
34
123
18
10
17
428
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
-
63
68
11
201
25
213
21
96
-
556
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
34
25
-
_
13
81
177
933
154
56
69
1470
1980
THC
71
166
246
28
54
94
30
8
1
2
24
726
37
94
19
9
22
907
RHC
7
152
49
6
11
19
-
1
-
.
-
245
33
73
16
9
20
396
NOX
55
-
—
-
-
-
4
-
68
73
12
212
33
137
19
87
-
488
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
38
25
-
_
15
87
192
522
163
46
81
1091
ro
vo
-------
TABLE 2-6. SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR - EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Chemical Industries
Incineration and Agri-
cultural Burning
Fuel Combustion:
Steam Power Plants
Residential, Commer-
cial, and Industrial
Other:
Mineral, Food,
Lumber, and
Metallurgical
Subtotal — Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
54
126
210
24
46
80
21
S
1
2
17
589
34 -
362
23
9
13
1030
RHC
5
117
42
5
9
16
-
1
-
-
.
195
31
301
19
9
12
567
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
58
62
8
186
14
326
20
78
-
624
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
27
25
-
21
10
92
no
2137
131
54
49
2573
1975
THC
61
36
155
3
49
85
25
3
1
2
20
440
22
159
23
10
17
671
RHC
. 6
33
31
1
-
17
-
-
-
.
.
88
20
128
19
10
15
272
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
61
66
10
195
21
270
22
103
-
611
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
32
12
-
-
12
65
130
989
149
62
60
1455
1977
THC
64
15
115
3
51
88
27
3
1
2
22
391
21
110
22
10
19
573
RHC
6
14
23
1
-
18
-
-
-
-
_
62
18
83
18
10
17
210
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
-
63
68
11
201
25
212
21
96
-
555
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
34
12
-
-
13
68
152
647
154
56
69
1146
1980
THC
71
16
123
3
54
94
30
3
1
2
24
421
25
68
19
9
22
564
RHC
7
15
25
1
-
19
-
-
-
-
—
67
22
49
16
9
20
183
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
-
68
73
12
212
33
136
19
87
• -
487
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
38
12
-
-
15
74
166
363
163
46
81
893
-------
TABLE 2-7. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
OJ
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Inspecti on /Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Additional Optimistic Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/M*
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
San Francisco Bay Area
1971
Tons/day
301.0
19.0
9.0
12.0
341.0
1975
Tons /day
170.0
19.0
10.0
15.0
214.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-30.0
-3.8
-8.0
-41.8
172.2
-15.0
-21.0
-10.0
-87.8
Percent
14.0
1.8
3.7
19.5
80.5
7.0
9.8
4.7
41.0
1977
Tons/ day
123.0
18.0
10.0
17.0
168.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-23.0
-1.6
-15.0
-39.6
128.4
-17.0
-14.0
-9.0
-79.6
88.4
Percent
13.7
1.0
8.9
23.6
76.4
10.1
8.3
5.4
47.4
52.6
1980
Tons/day
73.0
16.0
9.0
20.0
118.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-14.5
-0.6
-8.8
-23.9
94.1
-20.0
-7.5
-7.6
-59.0
59.0
Percent
12.3
0.5
7.5
20.3
79.7
16.9
6.4
6.4
50.0
50.0
a Based on presently proposed control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure 1n 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all nre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effective, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from I/M
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 2-8. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Co
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
San Francisco Bay Area
1971
Tons/day
2137.0
131.0
54.0
49.0
2371.0
1975
Tons /day
1301.0
149.0
62.0
60.0
1572.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-275.0
-6.3
-31.0
-312.3
1260.0
Percent
17.5
0.4
1.9
19.9
80.2
1977
Tons/day
933.0
154.0
56.0
69.0
1212.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-196.0
-1.8
-88.0
-285.8
926.0
Percent
16.2
0.1
7.3
23.6
76.4
1980
Tons/day
522.0
163.0
46.0
81.0
812.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-109.0
-0.3
-50.0
-159.3
653.0
Percent
13.4
0.0
6.2
19.6
80.4
a Based on presently proposed control oroqrams
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicle - {LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV)
-------
2.2 Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR
The Sacramento Valley Air Basin is located in the northern portion
of the Great Valley and extends into the surrounding mountain slopes. It
is characterized by valley floor elevations from 40 to 500 feet, surrounded
on three sides by mountains over 10,000 feet high. The basin is bounded on
the west by the Coast Range, on the north and east by the Cascade Range
and the Sierra Nevada Range, and on the south by the San Joaquin Valley Air
Basin. Figure 2-6 is a map showing the 15 counties which comprise the
air basin.
2.2.1 Regional Description
Weather in the Sacramento Valley is characterized by hot, dry
summers and moderate to cold, wet winters. Mean annual temperature is
62°F on the valley floor, with 15 inches annual precipitation.
Air flow in the Sacramento Valley tends to be parallel to the valley's
axis. Thus, wind directions are generally southerly or northerly. A
characteristic summer daytime flow is from the south, particularly along
the east side of the valley, as the cool maritime air of the Pacific Ocean
enters the valley through the Carquinez Straits and through lesser channels
in the coastal mountain range and flows northward to replace rising air in
the valley. On occasion, this south wind does not extend across the entire
valley floor, but instead, a light northerly counter-current may exist on
the west side of the valley.
In winter, the wind directions are generally dependent upon the
passage of frontal systems through the valley. Southerly winds generally
occur as a front approaches with a marked wind shift to the northwest or
north after the front has passed. The strongest northerly winds occur
after the front has passed, decreasing in speed over a period of a few
days.
After some winter frontal passages, an intense anti-cyclonic
circulation may develop over Oregon causing a large supply of cold
continental air from the Great Basin to spill over the Sierra into the
valley.
33
-------
Location Of
Basin
Lake Tahoe
Shading designates boundaries
of Sacramento regional area
Denotes location of primary
air quality monitoring stations
Figure.2-6 Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR
Source; California A1r Resources Board
34
-------
Air movement may stagnate between storms in winter, but the highest
frequency of stagnation occurs in autumn, during the period after the
characteristic summer flow ceases and before the season of winter storms
has commenced. During any season, nighttime cold density flows may occur
in the absence of strong barometric pressure gradients. These flows are
most pronounced in sloping mountain valleys and tend to follow water
drainage patterns.
These density flows lead to a pooling of cold air with a temperature
inversion at the top of the pool; thus, any radiation inversion that might
occur independently on the valley floor may be augmented by cold air
flowing off of the sloping sides of the valley.
In addition to these nighttime ground inversions, a subsidence
inversion frequently exists both day and night and at any season, but
particularly in summer. The height of this subsidence inversion is not
well documented but its existence is evident to people flying in the
valley or to people at a mountain location which affords an overview of
the valley. This temperature inversion, while generally not sensibly
apparent from the valley floor, is well defined by the top of the smoke
and haze layer in the valley.
While the entire Valley Basin appears to be equally susceptible to
the type of meteorology which augments adverse pollution levels, the
actual occurrence of smoggy days is noted most predominantly in the most
populated portions. The area experiencing worst air quality centers around
Sacramento County in the south end of the basin. The majority of population
in this area is concentrated in the Sacramento urban area as shown in
Figure 2-7. This area and its surrounding counties was selected as the
control region for the development of transportation plans in the study
analysis.
The region includes Sacramento County and the surrounding counties
of Yolo, Sutter, Yuba, Placer, and El Dorado. It represents 30 percent
of the land in the basin, and contains 75 percent of the basin's population.
The region's boundaries correspond almost identically to those of the region
served by the Sacramento Regional Area Planning Commission (which has the
responsibility of planning in this area).
35
-------
l_
LEGEND
Persons Per Acre
O- 1.49
1.50- 3.99
4.00- UP
REGIONAL ANALYSIS DISTRICTS
MAJOR ANALYSIS ZONES
I MINOR ANALYSIS ZONES
Figure 2-7 Population Density by Zone, Sacramento Regional Area
36
-------
Three-fourths of all vehicular travel carried out in the region is
generated within the Sacramento urbanized area. Through travel, although
heavy on major routes during weekends, is small compared to total vehicle
travel in the region (through trips were less than one percent of total
trips, and accounted for approximately four percent of all vehicle
mileage).
Within the six-county area served by the Sacramento Regional Area
Planning Commission, only one concentration of population is of
sufficient size to need an extensive regional mass transportation system
at this time. This concentration has as a nucleus the city of
Sacramento, the developed portions of Sacramento County north, northeast,
and south of the city limits, and a small developed portion of eastern
Yolo County adjacent to the city. There are strong economic and travel
links from Sacramento County to the nearby communities of Davis, Woodland,
Folsom, and Roseville. Within the study area the Sacramento Regional
Transit District serves some 20,000 passengers a day. Other special bus
services are provided by air bases and local schools.
2.2.2 Problem Definition
Air quality in the Sacramento Basin is determined by continuous
monitoring of pollutants at a limited number of air quality monitoring
stations. These stations are operated by the California Air Resources
Board, the Sacramento County Air Pollution Control District, and the
Environmental Protection Agency. The locations of these stations are
shown in Figure 2-6.
During the period from 1970 to 1972, the basin air quality stations
have recorded several occurrences in which the Federal air quality
standards have been exceeded. Table 2-9 summarizes these violation occur-
rences for carbon monoxide and oxidant. Air quality data for nitrogen
levels in Sacramento County are shown in Table 2-10.
37
-------
TABLE 2-9 SUMMARY OF AIR QUALITY VIOLATIONS IN THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AIR BASIN (1970-1972)
Month/Year
Apri 1 ,
May,
June,
July,
Aug.,
Sept.,
Oct.,
Nov.,
Dec.,
Jan. ,
Feb.,
March,
April ,
May,
June,
July,
Aug.,
Sept.,
Oct.,
Nov. ,
Dec.,
Jan. ,
Feb.,
March,
Apri 1 ,
May,
June,
July,
Aug. ,
Sept.,
Oct.,
Nov.,
Dec.,
1970
1970
1970
1970
1970
1970
1970
1970
1970
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1971
1972
1972
,1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
1972
Carbon. Monoxide 2
Violations Maximum Level
__
—
—
—
--
—
1
2
—
3
__
--
—
1
--
—
--
--
—
12
11
3
27
2
1
--
—
--
--
--
—
--
—
—
m
3
«. _
—
--
—
—
—
10
10
—
10
__
—
—
9
—
--
--
—
—
10
34
10
34
10
9
--
—
—
—
—
--
—
—
—
H.
10
Oxidant
Violations Maximum Level3
<_ ••
9
10
13
12
11
8
—
--
63
__
--
3
7
9
12
29
29
15
14
1
—
119
__
—
4
5
15
25
31
22
20
15 '
1
••••__
138
— _
.24
.19
.21
.18
.17
.15
—
—
.24
._
—
.10
.12
.13
.11
.18
.19
.24
.18
.09
—
.24
_-
--
.20
.13
.14
.25
.28
.20
.17
.11
.09
' ' ""
.28
lumber of days per month the Federal Air Quality Standard was exceeded in
the Air Basin.
2Based on exceeding a 12-hour average of 10 ppm p_r an 8-hour average of
9 ppm; data compiled using both standards.
3Based on exceeding a 1-hour average of 0.08 ppm or 0.10 ppm; data
compiled using both standards.
Source: California Air Resources Board
38
-------
TABLE 2-10. ANNUAL N0? CONCENTRATIONS
IN SACRAMENTO COUNTY
(13th and J Street Station)
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
NOg Average (ppm)
0.037
0.040
0.039
0.027
0.035
0.025
0.030
0.029
. 0.025
Note: The Federal air quality standard for N02 is an annual
arithmetic mean of .05 ppm.
Source: Sacramento County Air Pollution Control District
The monitoring station records clearly demonstrate that among those
pollutants which are subjects of this study (oxidant, carbon monoxide,
and nitrogen oxides), high levels of oxidant pose the most persistent air
pollution control problem in the basin. Other pollutant measurements,
such as sulfur dioxide or particulate concentration, have on occasion
exceeded the Federal air standards, but to a far lesser degree than is
typical of oxidant violations.
2.2.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness
The following figures and tables present both the baseline data
and effectiveness of the various control measures for reactive hydro-
carbons and carbon monoxide. The effectiveness due to each measure can
be seen in relation to those allowable emissions which are necessary to
meet the standards. The baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state
and local controls which are already, or will be, in effect on all types
of sources. The curve for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction
due to the proposed Phase I control measures, which affect light duty
vehicles only. Other curves show the reductions due to stationary
source controls.
39
-------
120
100
80
I
to
z
p
60
40
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(34.5 TONS/DAY)
MLLUHMDLL. l-HlJOlUltO /,.
20
1) Baseline
2) Stationary Source Controls
3) Mobile Source Controls
4 Aircraft Controls
5 Phase II Controls "Without" Gasoline Rationing
6 Phase II Controls "With" Gasoline Rationing
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 2-8. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for
Sacramento Regional Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons
(1970-1980)
40
-------
700
600
jALLOWABL EJMISSIONS.
(621 Tons/Day)"
500
400
300
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
(3) Aircraft Control
200
100
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 2-9. Summary of. Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Sacramento Regional Area - Carbon Monoxide
(1970-1980)
41
-------
TABLE "2-11. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1972, 1975, 1977, 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Incineration
LuHber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Confcustion:
Residential. Commercial,
and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral,
Metallurgical, and
Pet Production
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1972
THC
23.0
9.6
3.4
7.0
11.0
18.0
3.6
4.0
1.8
5.4
86.8
13.6
80.7
5.0
2.0
3.7
191.8
RHC
21.0
1.9
0.7
1.4
2.2
2.2
0.3
0.4
-
0.7
30.8
12.2
66.7
4.1
2.0
3.3
119.1
NOX
1.6
-
-
-
-
1.2
1.3
0.2
12.0
0.5
16.7
3.2
80.9
4.2
20.0
-
125.0
CO
-
-
-
-
-
29
20
6
9
1
65
65
506
29
12
14
691
1975
THC
28.0
10.1
3.6
8.5
12.0
19.0
4.0
4.4
1.9
7.0
98.5
9.7
55.9
5.2
2.3
5.3
176.9
RHC
26.0
2.0
0.7
1.7
2.4
2.3
0.3
0.4
-
0.9
36.7
8.7
46.0
4.3
2.3
4.8
102.8
NOX
2.0
- •-
-
-
-
1.3
1.5
0.2
13.0
0.7
18.7
3.3
66.1
4.6
23.0
-
115.7
. CO
-
' -
- •
-
30
21
7
9
2
69
62
345
34
14
20
544
1977
THC
31.0
10.8
3.8
9.7
12.0
20.0
4.3
4.6
2.0
8.3
108.5
9.7
41.2
4.9
2.1
6.6
173.0
RHC
. 29.0
2.2
0.8
1.9
2.4
2.4
0.4
0.5
-
i.o
40.6
8.7
33.4
4.0
2.1
5.9
94.7
NOX
2.2.
-
-
-
-
1.4
1.6
0.2
14.0
0.8
20.2
3.3
51.4
4.5
21.0
-
100.4
CO
-
-
-
-
-
32
23
7
10
2
74
62
251
35
12
24
458
1980
THC
35.0
11.6
4.1
11.6
13.0
22.0
4.7
5.0
2.1
10.0
119.1
9.7
25.3
4.5
2.0
8.2
168.8
RHC
33.0
2.3
0.8
2.3
2.6
2.6
0.4
0.5
-
1.3
45.8
8.7
19.9
3.7
2.0
7.4
87.5
NOX
2.5
-
-
-
-
1.5
1.8
0.3
15.0
1.0
22.1
3.5
33.9
4.2
20.0
-
83. 7
CO
-
-
-
-
-
34
25
3
10
2
79
63
143
38
11
31
365
-------
TABLE 2-12. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commer-
cial, and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral ,
Metallurgical, and
Petroleum Production
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1972
THC
23
9.6
3.4
7.0
11
18
3.6
4.0
1.8
5.4
86.8
13.6
80.7
5.0
2.0
3.7
191.8
RHC
21
1.9
0.7
1.4
2.2
2.2
0.3
0.4
.
0.7
30.8
12.2
66.7
4.1
2.0
3.3
119.1
NOX
1.6
-
-
-
-
1.2
1.2
0.2
12
0.5
16.7
3.2
80.9
4.2
20.0
-
125.0
CO
-
-
-
-
-
29
19
6
9
1
64
65
506
29
12
14
690
1975
THC
7.0
7.1
0.4
8.5
12
9.5
1.6
3.5
1.9
7.0
58.5
5.8
43.5
5.2
2.3
5.3
120.6
RHC
6.5
1.4
0.1
-
2.4
1.2
0.1
0.4
-
0.9
13.0
5.2
34.5
4.3
2.3
4.8
64.1
NOX
2.0
-
-
-
-
0.7
1.5
0.2
13
0.7
18.1
3.3
64.8
4.6
23.0
-
113.8
CO
-
-
-
-
15
8
6
9
2
40
58.3
261
34
14
20
427.3
1977
THC
3.1
5.4
0.4
9.7
12
10
1.7
3.7
2.0
8.3
56.3
5.9
30.0
4.9
2.1
6.6
105.8
RHC
2.9
1.1
0.1
-
2.4
1.2
0.2
0.4
-
1.0
9.3
5.3
24.8
4.0
2.1
5.9
49.7
NOX
2.2
-
-
-
-
0.7
1.6
0.2
14
0.8
19.5
3.3
50.6
4.5
21.0
-
98.9
CO
-
-
-
-
-
16
9
6
10
2
43
58.3
173
35
12
24
345.3
1980
THC
3.5
5.8
0.4
11.6
13
11
1.9
4.0
2.1
10.0
63.3
6.5
19.6
4.5
2.0
8.2
101.7
RHC
3.3
1.2
0.1
-
2.6
1.3
0.2
0.4
-
1.3
10.4
5.8
15.6
3.7
2.0
7.4
43.0
NOX
2.5
-
-
-
-
0.8
1.8
0.2
15
1.0
21.3
3.5
33.5
4.2
20.0
-
825
CO
-
-
-
-
-
17
10
7
10
2
46
59.6
99
38
11
31
284.6
-------
TABLE 2-13. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3.
LDHV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Additional Optimistic Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporate Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent 1/M*
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Sacramento Regional Area
1972
Tons/day
66.7
4.1
2.0
3.3
76.1
1975
Tons/day
46.0
4.3
2.3
4.8
57.4
Reductions
Tons /day
-7.9
-1.6
-2.2
-11.7
45.7
-4.8
-6.1
-2.2
-24.8
32.6
Percent
13.8
2.8
3.8
20.4
79.6
8.4
10.6
3.8
43.2
56.8
1977
Tons/day
.33.4
4.0
2.1
5.9
45.4
Reductions
Tons /day
-5.2
-1.0
-4.7
-10.9
34.5
-5.9
-4.0
-2.0
-22.8
22.6
Percent
11.5
2.2
10.4
24.1
76.0
13.0
8.8
4.4
50.3
49.8
1980
Tons/day
19.9
3.7
2.0
7.4
33.0 •
Reductions
Tons /day
-3.3
-0.5
-2.4
-6.2
26.8
-7.4
-2.1
-1.8
-17.5
15.5
Percent
10.0
1.5
7.3
18.8
81.2
2.2
6.4
5.5
32.9
47.0
a Based on presently proposed control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effective, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from I/M
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 2-14. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory
LDMV
HOMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Sacramento Reqional Area
1972
Tons/day
506.0
29.0
12.0
14.0
561.0
1975
Tons/day
345.0
34.0
14.0
20.0
413.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-73.0
-2.6
-8.2
-83.8
329.0
Percent
17.7
0.6
2.0
20.3
79.7
1977
Tons/day
251.0
35.0
12.0
24.0
322.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-53.0
-1.1
-24.0
-78.1
244.0
Percent
16.5
0.3
7.5
24.3
75.8
1980
Tons, 'day
143.0
38.0
11.0
31.0
223.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-30.0
-0.3
-14.0
-44.3
179.0
Percent
13.5
0.1
6.3
20.0
80.3
a Based on presently proposed control nroqrams
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 nercent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Liqht Duty-Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
2.3 San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR
The San Joaquin Valley Air Basin consists of all of the counties
of Amador, Calaveras, Fresno, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, San
Joaquin, Stanislaus, Tulare and Tuolumne and the western portion of
Kern County. The air basin lies in the southern portion of the Great
Valley and extends into the neighboring mountain slopes. It is bounded
on the west by the Coastal Range, on the east by the Sierra Nevada
Mountains, on the south by the Tehachapi Mountains, and on the north
by the Sacramento Valley Air Basin. A map of the basin is shown in
Figure 2-10.
2.3.1 Regional Description
Due to the temperature contrast during much of the year between the
valley and the Pacific waters, air from, the coast enters the valley,
primarily through the gap at San Francisco Bay, and undergoes rapid
modification in temperature and relative humidity. Part of the flow
turns northward into the Sacramento Valley and part southward into the
San Joaquin Valley. A wind divergence zone is created by the splitting
of the airflow through the Coast Range. The mean summer position of this
divergent zone lies at about the Sacramento-San Joaquin and the Amador-
El Dorado County borders.
The basin includes 30,200 square miles of land surface and had a
population over 1.6 million people in 1970, which is a 16 percent increase
since 1960. Although the basin contains 19 percent of the state's land
area, only eight percent of its people reside within the basin.
A network of railroads, air routes, and highways interconnect the
three major urban centers in the San Joaquin Valley, Stockton, Fresno,
and Bakersfield, and provide access for major recreational areas of
Yosemite, Kings Canyon and Sequoia National Parks located in the eastern
portion of the valley. Port facilities for water transportation are
available only in Stockton; hence, waterways are not a significant part
of the circulation of people and goods within the valley.
The railroad system within the valley is principally limited to the
shipment of industrial, agricultural, and commercial freight. Passenger
services which are being offered nationally by the newly created national
railway system, AMTRAK, has not been extended to the study area.
46
-------
Location of
Basin
(AMADOR -^o^
Jackson 4-1. 2^ ,
^Visalia
HanfoT-
Figure 2-10 San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR
47
-------
Each of the three major urban centers have airports which are served
by the intrastate airways and have facilities for both private and public
airlines. The public need for air freight and travel by air within the
valley is adequately served by these airports.
The valley highway network is the primary constituent of the
transportation system. Freeways and highways interconnect the major
urban centers in the valley and provide access to major recreational
facilities for residents of the valley as well as residents of other
portions of California and the Uiited States, while arterials, collectors,
and locals provide for circulation of motor vehicles within the urban
centers. At present few freeways exist for local circulation in the
three major urban areas.
Of the existing freeways in the study area, Route 99 is the backbone
of the entire region. Most of the urban, industrial and agricultural
development within the valley is located along this facility which has
historically served as a primary north-south transportation facility for
trucked commodities and motor vehicle passengers with origins and
destinations not only within the valley but other major urban centers in
California as well.
In recognition of the demand for a north-south "through route" a
new major freeway has recently been completed within the San Joaquin
Valley. The new Interstate 5 (1-5) generally parallels Route 99 to the
west and bypasses almost all existing communities within the valley.
Ultimately 1-5 will extend along the west coast of the United States from
the border of Canada to Mexico.
Intercity bus companies provide passenger services within the valley;
however, among the variety of different modes of transportation available
the private automobile is by far the dominant mode. It was previously
established that the primary air pollution problem is a result of an
excess of reactive hydrocarbons, a large fraction of which are emitted by
automobiles. The quantity of hydrocarbon emissions from automobiles is
directly related to the vehicle miles of travel (VMT) within the region.
Consequently, air pollution control strategies directed at reducing the
dominance of the automobile in the transportation system of the San Joaquin
Valley will result in a reduction of the air pollution problem.
48
-------
2.3.2 Problem Definition
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been exceeded
in seven cities in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin. These cities are:
Stockton, Fresno, Bakersfield, Modesto, Visalia, Parlier, and Five
Points. Each of the areas surrounding the cities have unique charac-
teristics with regard to air quality, meteorology, stationary sources,
population distribution, and transportation. An adequate transportation
strategy must therefore consider each area individually in order that the
peculiarities of each area be considered and efficiently dealt with. Some
of the control measures which will be considered in this study can only be
effectively applied locally; others, because of legal and
procedural constraints, may not be reasonable unless applied to a larger
area; the air basin or the state. An example of the first type of.
measure would be parking restrictions in the central business district
of a city; an example of the second type would be a vehicle retrofit
program.
Three counties in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin have been
selected for study: San Joaquin County, Fresno County, and Kern County.
San Joaquin County contains the city of Stockton; Fresno County contains
the cities of Fresno, Parlier, and Five Points; Kern County contains
Bakersfield. The air pollution problems of Modesto and Visalia are not
directly dealt with in this study; it is hoped that the general analytical
results, ideas, and methodologies may be of benefit to these areas in
local planning. (Basin-wide and state-wide control measures, of course,
will be of direct benefit to these areas.) Approximately 65 percent of
the total population lives within these three counties. .The extremely
high potential for growth in both population and travel in these three
counties increases the need to concentrate this particular study on them
and treat them as relatively independent entities.
49
-------
2.3.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness
The following figures and tables present the baseline emission
inventory data and the effectiveness of the various control measures
examined. The effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in
relation to those allowable emissions which are necessary to meet the
standards. The baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state and local
controls which are already, or will be, in effect on all types of
sources. The curve for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due
to the proposed Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles
only. Other curves show the reductions due to stationary source
controls.
50
-------
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
si
-------
40
30
OO
o
20
10
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
"Tl5.FTonT7pay) "
(1) Baseline
(2) Stationary Source Controls
(3) Motor Vehicle Controls
(4) Phase II Controls
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
YEAR
1980
Figure 2-11. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for
San Joaquin County - Reactive Hydrocarbons
52
-------
300
200
TOO
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(113 TONS/DAY)
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980
YEAR
Figure 2-12. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for San Joaquin County - Carbon Monoxide
53
-------
TABLE 2-15. SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977, 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commer-
cial , and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Metallurgi-
cal, Mineral, Lumber,
and Petroleum Prod.
Subtotal - Stationary
Ai rcraf t
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
6.8
3.0
3.2
8.8
4.0
1.5
0.7
0.2
28.2
0.08
29.9
2.6
1.1
0.8
62.7
RHC
6.3
0.6
0.6
1.7
0.5
0.2
-
9.9
0.07
24.9
2.2
1.1
0.7
NOX
0.4
-
-
-
0.3
0.1
6.8
7.6
0.06
27.2
2.7
11.5
38.9 ! 49.1
CO
-
-
-
-
7
2
1
2
12
1.9
174
15
7
3
213
1975
THC
7.8
3.2
3.6
9.3
4.2
1.7
0.7
0.2
30.7
0.11
20.4
3.1
1.4
1.0
56.7
RHC
7.2
0.6
0.7
1.9
0.5
0.2
-
.
11.1
0.10
16.7
2.5
1.4
0.9
32.7
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.3
0.1
7.2
.
8.1
0.08
24.5
3.4
14.1
-
50.2
CO
-
-
-
-
7
3
1
2
12
2.5
124
19
9
4
171
1977
THC
8.3
3.3
3.8
9.6
4.4
1.8
0.8
0.2
32.2
0.13
15.8
3.1
1.5
1.1
53.8
RHC
7.7
0.7
0.8
1.9
0.5
0.2
-
.
11.8
0.12
12.7
2.5
1.5
1.0
28.7
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.3
0.1
7.4
.
8.3
0.09
19.7
3.4
14.5
-
46.0
CO
-
-
-
-
8
3
1
2
14
2.8
94
21
8
4
144
1980
THC
9.1
3.4
4.1
10.1
4.6
2.0
0.8
0.2
34.3
0.12
10.1
2.9
1.4
1.4
50.2
RHC
8.3
0.7
0.8
2.0
0.6
0.2
-
.
12.6
o.n
7.9
2.4
1.4
1.3
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.4
0.1
7.8
.
8.8
0.10
13.4
3.2
13.7
-
25.7 39.2
CO
-
-
-
-
8
3
1
2
14
2.9
57
24
7
5
110
cn
-------
TABLE 2-16. SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commer-
cial , and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Metallurgi-
cal, Mineral, Lumber,
and Petroleum Prod.
Subtotal — Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
THC
o.H
3.0
3.2
8.8
4.0
1.5
0.7
0.2
28.2
0.08
29.9
2.6
1.1
0.8
62.7
197
RHC
5.3
•'
0.6
0.6
1.7
0.5
0.2
-
-
9.9
0.07
24.9
2.2
1.1
0.7
38.9
NOX
0 . •'-
-
-
-
0.3
0.1
6.8
-
7.6
0.06
27.2
2.7
11.5
-
49.1
CO
-
-
-
-
7
2
1
2
12
1.9
174
T5
7
3
213
THC
1.9
2.2
2.4
9.3
1.4
1.4
0.7
0.2
19.5
0.11
15.8
3.1
1.4
1.0
40.9
197
RHC
1.8
0.4
-
1.9
n.2
0.1
-
-
4.4
0.10
12.6
2.5
1.4
0.9
21.9
5
NOX
0,5
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
7.2
-
7.9
0.08
24.0
3.4
14.1
-
49.5
CO
-
-
-
-
2
2
1
2
7
2.5
94
19
9
4
136
THC
0.8
1.6
2.5
9.6
1.5
1.5
0.8
0.2
18.5
0.13
11.4
3.1
1.5
1.1
35.7
19
RHC
0.8
0.3
-
1.9
0.2
0.2
-
-
3.4
0.12
8.9
2.5
1.5
1.0
17.4
'7
NOX
0.5
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
7.4
-
8.1
0.09
19.4
3.4
14.5
-
45.5
CO
-
-
-
3
2
1
2
8
2.8
65
21
8
4
109
THC
0.9
1.7
2.7
10.1
1.6
1.6
0.8
0.2
19.6
0.12
7.2
2.9
1.4
1.4
32.6
198C
RHC
0.8
0.3
-
2.0
0.2
0.2
-
-
3.5
0.11
5.6
2.4
1.4
1.3
14.3
i
;;ox
0.5
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
7.8
-
8.0
0.10
13.2
3.2
13.7
-
38.2
CO
-
-
-
-
3
3
1
2
9
2.9
40
24
7
5
88
171
tn
-------
TABLE 2-17. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Ol
Baseline Emission Inventory
LDMV
HOMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1956 Retrofit (1955-G5)
Inspecti on/Mai ntenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Phase 11 Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/Ma
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
San Joaquin County
1971
Tons /day
24.9
2.2
1.1
0.7
28.9
•
1975
Tons /day
16.7
2.5
1.4
0.9
21.5
Reductions
Tons/day
-2.7
-0.6
-0.8
-4.1
17.4
-0.9
-2.2
-1.3
-8.5
13.0
Percent
12.6
2.8
3.7
19.1
80.9
4.2
10.2
6.0
39.5
60.5
1977
Tons/day
12.7
2.5
1.5
1.0
17.7
Reductl ons
Tons /day
-1.9
-0.4
-1.5
-3.8
13.9
-1.0
-1.5
-1.3
-7.6
10.1
Percent
10.7
2.3
8.5
21.5
78.5
5.6
8.5
7.3
4.3
57.1
1980
Tons/day
7.9
2.4
1.4
1.3
13.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-1.2
-0.2
-0.9
-2.3
10.7
-1.3
-0.8
-1.2
-5.6
7.4
Percent
9.2
1.5
6.9
17.7
82.3
10.0
6.1
9.2
4.3
56.9
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from I/M
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 2-18. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
CJl
Baseline Emission Inventory8
LDMV
HDM'-,
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaini nq Emissions
San Joaquin County
1971
Tons/day
174.0
15.0
7.0
3.0
199.0
1975
Tons/day
124.0
19.0
9.0
4.0
156.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-Z6.0
-1.0
-2.9
-29.9
126.0
Percent
-16.7
-0.6
-1.9
19.2
80.8
1977
Tons/day
94.0
21.0
8.0
4.0
127.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-20.0
-0.4
-8.8
-29.2
97.8
Percent
-15.7
-0.3
-6.9
23.0
77.0
1980
Tons /day
57.0
24.0
7.0
5.0
93.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-12.0
-0.1
-5.4
-17.5
75.5
Percent
-12.9
-0.1
-5.8
18.8
81.2
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
FRESNO COUNTY
58
-------
50
40
S
30
20
10
AUpWABLEJMISSIflNS
(19.8 TONS/DAY)
(1) Baseline
(2) Stationary Source Controls
(3) Mobile Source Controls
(4) Phase II Controls
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 2-13. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Fresno County - Reactive Hydrocarbons
(1970-1980)
59
-------
300
ALLpWABLE_EMISSIONS
(271 TONS/DAY)
200
100
1);Baseline
2) Motor Vehicle Controls
•4-
4-
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 2-14. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Fresno County - Carbon Monoxide
(1970-1980)
60
-------
TABLE 2-19. FRESNO COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Production
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
L unfcer Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral,
and Metallurgical
Subtotal - Stationary
A1 rcraf t
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1970
THC
7.3
6.4
4.2
4.3
12.0
8.0
3.2
21.0
1.5
0.8
68.7
1.1
41.0
1.9
0.8
1.1
114.6
RHC
-
6.0
0.8
0.9
2.4
1.0
0.3
2.2
-
-
13.6
1.0
34.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
52.2
NOX
4.0
0.6
-
-
-
0.6
0.3
0.8
8.9
-
15.2
0.5
31.2
1.9
7.4
-
56.2
CO
-
-
-
_
-
14
22
34
3
-
73
8
231
10
5
4
331
1975
THC
5.1
7.2
4.4
4.7
13.0
8.5
2.9
25.0
1.6
1.2
73.6
1.2
21.9
2.4
1.1
1.7
101.9
RHC
-
6.8
0.9
0.9
2.6
1.0
0.3
2.5
-
-
15.0
1.1
17.7
2.0
1.1
1.5
38.4
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
.
-
0.6
0.3
1.0
9.4
-
14.8
0.6
26.0
2.6
10.4
-
54.4
CO
-
-
-
—
-
15
21
40
3
-
79
10
141
15
6
6
257
1977
THC
5.1
7.5
4.6
4.8
13.0
8.7
3.5
27.0
1.6
1.4
77.2
1.2
15.5
2.4
1.1
1.9
99.3
RHC
-
7.1
0.9
1.0
2.6
1.0
0.2
2.7
-
-
15.5
1.1
12.3
1.9
1.1
1.7
33.6
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
_
-
0.7
0.2
1.2
9.7
.
15.3
0.7
19.8
2.5
9.6
-
47.9
CO
-
-
-
_
-
15
24
43
3
_
85
11
97
16
6
7
222
1980
THC
5.1
8.2
4.8
5.2
14.0
9.1
3.8
30.0
1.7
1.7
83.6
1.2
9.4
2.3
1.0
2.0
99.5
RHC
-
. 7.7
1.0
1.0
2.8
1.1
0.3
3.0
-
_
16.9
1.1
7.3
1.9
1.0
1.8
30.0
NOX
2.8
0.8
-
_
-
0.7
0.3
1.5
10.2
_
16.3
0.8
11.9
2.4
10.2
-
41.6
CO
-
-
-
„
-
16
25
47
3
_
91
11
59
17
5
7
190
-------
TABLE 2-20. FRESNO COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Refining and
Production
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Lumber Industry
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Conmer-
cial, and Industrial
Other:
Chemical , Mineral,
and Metallurgical
Subtotal — Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LOMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1970
THC
7.3
6.4
4.2
4.3
12
8.0
3.2
21
1.5
0.8
68.7
1.1
41.0
1.9
0.8
1.1
114.6
RHC
_
6.0
0.8
0.9
2.4
1.0
0.3
2.2
-
-
13.6
1.0
34.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
52.2
NOX
4.0
0.6
-
-
-
0.6
0.3
0.8
8.9
-
15.2
0.5
31.2
1.9
7.4
-
56.2
CO
.
-
-
-
-
14
22
34
3
.
73
8
231
10
5
4
331
1975
THC
5.1
1.8
3.0
3.3
13
3.0
0.9
2.0
1.6
1.2
34.9
1.2
17.2
2.4
1.1
1.7
58.5
RHC
.
1.7
0.6
-
2.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
-
.
5.6
1.1
13.5
2.0
1.1
1.5
24.8
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
-
-
0.2
0.1
0.1
9.4
.
13.3
0.6
25.5
2.6
10.4
-
52.4
CO
-
-
-
-
-
5
5
3
3
-
13
10
107
15
6
6
157
1977
THC
5.1
0.8
2.3
3.4
13
3.1
0.9
2.2
1.6
1.4
33.8
1.2
11.1
2.4
1.1
1.9
51.5
RHC
-
0.7
0.5
-
2.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
-
-
4.5
1.1
8.5
1.9
1.1
1.7
18.8
NOX
2.8
0.7
-
-
-
0.2
0.1
0.1
9.7
.
13.6
0.7
19.5
2.5
9.6
-
45.7
CO
-
-
-
-
-
5
6
4
3
-
18
11
67
16
6
7
125
1980
THC
5.1
0.9
2.4
3.6
14
3.2
0.9
2.4
1.7
1.7
35.9
1.2
6.7
2.3
1.0
2.0
49.1
RHC
-
0.8
0.5
-
2.8
0.4
0.1
0.2
-
-
4.8
1.1
5.0
1.9
1.0
1.8
15.6
NOX
2.8
0.8
-
-
-
0.2
0.1
0.2
10.2
-
14.3
0.8
11.8
2.4
10.2
-
39.5
CO
-
-
-
-
-
6
6
4
3
-
19
11
41
17
5
7
100
ro
-------
TABLE 2-21. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
OJ
Baseline Emission Inventorya
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit (1955-65)
Inspect! on /Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaininq Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Phase II Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporate Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/Md
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Fresno County
1970
Tons/day
34.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
37.6
197E
Tons /day
17.7
2.0
1.1
1.5
22.3
Reductions
Tons /day
-2.8
-0.6
-0.8
-4.2
18.1
-1.5
-2.3
-1.0
-9.0
13.3
Percent
12.6
2.7
3.6
18.8
81.2
6.7
10.3
4.5
40.4
59.6
1977
Tons/day
12.3
1.9
1.1
1.7
17.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-1.9
-0.4
-1.5
-3.8
13.2
-1.7
-1.5
-1.0
-8.0
9.0
Percent
11.2
2.4
8.8
22.4
77.6
10.0 .
8.8
5.9
47.1
52.9
1980
Tons /day
7.3
1.9
1.0
1.8
12.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-1.2
-0.2
-0.9
-2.3
9.7
-1.8
-0.8
-0.9
-5.8
6.2
Percent
10.0
1.7
7.5
19.2.
80.8
15.0
6.7
7.5
48.3
51.7
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from I/M
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 2-22. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSION FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory*
LDHV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit (1955-65)
Inspect! on /Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Fresno County
1970
Tons/day
231.0
10.0
5.0
4.0
250.0
1975
Tons /day
141.0
15.0
6.0
6.0
168.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-30.0
-1.1
-3.3
-34.4
134.0
Percent
17.9
0.7
2.0
20.5
79.8
1977
Tons /day
97.0
16.0
6.0
7.0
126.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-20.0
-0.4
-9.2
-29.6
96.0
Percent
15.9
0.3
7.3
23.5
76.2
1980
Tons/day
59.0
17.0
5.0
7.0
88.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-12.0
-0.1
-5.6
-17.7
70.0
Percent
13.6
0.1
6.4
20.1
79.5
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicle - (LDHV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV)
-------
KERN COUNTY
65
-------
<
a
to
50
40
30
20
10
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(17.1 TONS/DAY)
(1) Baseline
(2) Stationary Source Controls
(3) Motor Vehicle Controls
(4) Phase II Controls
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 2-15. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Kern County - Reactive Hydrocarbons (1970-1980)
66
-------
Figure 2-16 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Kern County - Carbon Monoxide
(1970 - 1980)
400
300
_ ALLOWABLL_EM1SSIONS
( 45 TONS/DAY)
200
100
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
H 1 1 h
-I 1 1 h
1970
1972 1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 2-16. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness
for Kern County - Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980)
67
-------
TABLE 2-23. KERN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977 AND 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Production and
Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Subtotal — Stationary
A1 rcraf t
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
61.8
5.7
2.1
2.1
8.1
14.0
5.0
0.8
98.8
0.12
36.4
3.7
1.6
1.5
142.1
RHC
1.5
5.3
0.4
0.4
1.6
1.4
0.5
-
11.1
0.11
30.3
3.0
1.6
1.4
47.5
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
-
1.9
-
7.5
55.4
0.08
33.8
3.9
16.3
-
109.5
CO
102
-
-
-
-
29
6
1
139
3
209
20
10
12
383
1975
THC
66.0
6.5
2.2
2.3
8.4
15.0
5.3
0.8
106.5
0.14
22.9
4.0
1.9
2.5
137.9
RHC
1.6
6.0
0.4
0.5
1.7
1.5
0.5
-
12.2
0.13
18.7
3.3
1.9
2.3
38.5
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
-
2.0
-
7.9
55.9
O.K
28.5
4.4
19.2
-
108.1
CO
102
-
-
-
-
30
7
1
141
4
138
25
12
2
322
1977
THC
9
69.0
7.0
2.3
2.4
8.6
15.0
5.7
0.9
110.9
0.16
17.4
3.8
1.8
2.8
136.9
RHC
1.7
6.5
0.4
0.5
1.7
1.5
0.6
-
12.9
0.14
13.9
3.1
1.8
2.5
34.3
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
-
2.1
-
8.0
56.1
0.11
22.4
4.2
18.2
-
101.0
CO
102
-
-
-
-
31
7
1
142
4
103
26
11
3
279.1
1980
THC
76.0
7.6
2.3
2.6
8.9
16.0
6.1
0.9
120.4
0.17
10.6
3.5
1.7
3.1
139.5
RHC
1.9
7.0
0.5
0.5
1.8
1.6
0.6
-
13.9
0.15
8.3
2.8
1.7
2.8
29.7
NOX
46.0
-
-
-
-
2.1
-
8.3
56.4
0.13
14.4
3.9
16.6
-
91.4
CO
102
-
-
-
-
32
8
1
144
5
59
29
9
3
249
CO
-------
TABLE 2-24. KERN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Production and
Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning (1/3)
and Degreasing (2/3)
Other
Incineration
Agriculture
Fuel Combustion:
Residential, Commer-
cial , and Industrial
Other:
Chemical, Mineral ,
Metallurgical , and
Lumber
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LDMV
HOMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
61
5.7
2.1
2.1
8.1
14
5.0
0.8
98.8
0.12
36.4
3.7
1.6
1.5
142.1
RHC
1.5
5.3
0.4
0.4
1.6
1.4
0.5
-
11.1
0.11
30.3
3.0'
1.6
1.4
47.5
NOX
46
-
-
-
-
1.9
-
7.5
55.4
0.08
33,8
3.9
16.3
-
109.5
CO
102
-
-
-
-
29
6
-
1
139.0
3
209
20
10
2
383
1975
THC
66
1.7
1.5
1.5
8.4
5.2
0.4
0.8
85.5
0.14
18.5
4.0
1.9
2.5
108.9
RHC
1.6
1.5
0.3
-
1.7
0.5
-
-
5.6
0.13
14.1
3.3
1.9
2.3
27.3
NOX
46
-
-
-
-
0.7
-
7.9
54.6
0.10
27.9
4.4
19.2
-
106.2
CO
102
-
'
-
-
10
1
1
1
115
4
105
25
12
2
263
1977
THC
69
0.7
1.1
1.6
8.6
5.3
0.4
0.9
87.6
0.16
12.6
3.8
1.8
2.8
108.8
RHC
1.7
0.7
0.2
-
1.7
0.5
-
-
4.8
0.14
9.7
3.1
1.8
2.5
22.0
NOX
46
-
-
-
-
0.7
-
8.0
54.4.
0.11
22.1
4.2
18.2
-
99.3
CO
102
-
-
-
-
11
1
1
1
116
4
71
26
11
3
231
1980
THC
76
0.8
1.2
1.7
8.9
5.6
0.5
0.9
95.6
0.17
7.5
3.5
1.7
3.1
111.6
RHC
1.9
0.7
0.3
-
1.8
0.6
0.1
-
5.4
0.15
5.8
2.8
1.7
2.8
18.7
NOX
46
-
-
-
-
0.7
-
8.3
55.0
0.13
14.2
3.9
16.6
-
89.8
CO
102
-
-
-
-
11
1
1
1
116
5
41
29
9
3
203
-------
TABLE 2-25. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSION FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory2
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Phase I Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Phase II
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/Md
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Kern County
1971
Tons -'day
30.3
2.0
1.5
1.4
36.3
p
1975
Tons/day
18.7
3.3
1.9
2.3
26.2
Reductions
Tons/day
-3.0
-0.7
-0.9
-4.6
21.6
-2.3
-2.5
-1.7
-11.1
15.1
Percent
11.5
2.7
3.4
17.6
82.4
8.8
9.5
6.5
42.4
57.6
1977
Tons /day
13.9
3.1
1.8
2.5
21.3
Reductions
Tons /day
-2.1
-0.4
-1.7
-4.2
17.1
Percent
9.8
1.9
8.0
19.7
80.3
i
-2.5
-1.7
-1.6
-10.0
11.3
11.7
8.0
7.5
46.9
53.1
1980
Tons /day
8.3
2.8
1.7
2.8
15.6
Reductions
tons /day
-1.3
-0.2
-1.0
-2.5
13.1
-2.8
-0.9
-1.3
-7.5
8.5
Percent
8.3
1.3
6.4
16.0
84.0
1.8
5.8
8.3
48.1
54.5
a Based on presently planned control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evan. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from I/M
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV)
-------
TABLE 2-26. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES -
PROJECTED INVENTORY AMD ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory*
LDMV x
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycl es
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit (1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Kern County
1971
Tons /day
209.0
20.0
10.0
2.0
241.0
1975
Tons /day
138.0
25.0
12.0
2.0
177.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-29.0
-1.0
-3.2
-33.2
144.0
Percent
16.4
0.6
1.8
18.8
81.3
1977
Tons/day
103.0
26.0
11.0
3.0
143.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-22.0
-0.5
-10.0
-32.5
111.0
Percent
15.4
0.3
7.0
22.7
77.6
1980
Tons/day
59.0
29.0
9.0
3.0
100.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-12.0
-0.1
-5.6
-17.7
82.0
Percent
12.0
0.1
5.6
17.7
82.0
a Based on presently planned control oronrams
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Light Duty Motor Vehicle - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV)
-------
2.4 Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR
The Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR, also known as the Southeast
Desert Air Basin is located in the southeast portion of California. It
is comprised of all of Imperial County and the eastern portions of San
Bernardino, Riverside, Kern, Los Angeles, and San Diego Counties. Geo-
graphically, this AQCR covers some 33,600 square miles and is separated
from the coastal regions by a series of mountain ranges. These mountains
also serve as a climatalogical boundary. Elevations within the region
vary from 235 feet below sea level at the Sal ton Sea to over 11,000 feet,
at the peak of Mount San Gorgonio. Figure 2-17 presents a map of the
region and its location within the State.
By and large, the region is of low population density with approxi-
mately 447,000 residents in 1970. Motor vehicle registrations for 1970
numbered slightly more than 300,000 with the vehicles consuming some 400
million gallons of gasoline and 14 million gallons of diesel fuel.
In recent years, the NAAQS have been exceeded in numerous sites
throughout this AQCR. Table 2-27 lists six locations in the region and the
maximum recorded levels of oxidant and carbon monoxide for 1970-1971. The
available data indicate that the N02 standard has not been exceeded. A
listing of the air monitoring stations pollutants which are monitored is
given in Table 2-28.
Since the Southeast Desert is generally downwind of the South Coast
Air Basin (Los Angeles region) considerable amounts of pollutants would
be transported into the region and added to the locally generated pollu-
tion. Explicitly finding what fraction of the Southeast Desert's air
pollution is the result of transport and what portion results from acti-
vities within the Basin would require a major research effort. Such a
study is beyond the scope of this analysis. However, in an attempt to
better understand the problem, an analysis was undertaken to determine
the major source of the extremely high oxidant levels monitored within
the region.
72
-------
Lancaste
LOS '
ANlGELES
SAN BERNARDINO
•Victorvillc
• Banning
Palm Spring
RIVERSIDE
AN I IMPERIAL
DIIEGO' «EI Centrp
Son Bernardino •
Riverside •
Location Of
Basin
Source: California Air Resources Board
Figure 2-17. Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR
73
-------
TABLE 2-27. AIR QUALITY LEVELS MONITORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST DESERT AQCR (1970-1971)
Location
Lancaster
Banning
Palm Springs
Indio
Bars tow
Victorville
ND - No recorded data
NM - Not monitored
Source: California Ai
Oxidant
1970
0.06
0.46
NM
NM
0.14
0.22
(1-Hr. Maximum)
1971
0.20
0.24
0.38
0.32
ND
0.14
CO
1970
12
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
(8 Hr. Maximum)
1971
9
NM
14
17
NM
NM
r Resources Board
TABLE 2-28.
PRINCIPAL AIR QUALITY MONITORING STATIONS
SOUTHEAST DESERT INTRASTATE AQCR
Location
Lancaster
Banning
Palm Springs
Indio
Bars tow
Victorville
OX
X
X
X
X
X
X
P 0
CO
X
X
X
Source: California
L L
NO
X
X
X
X
Air
U T A
N02
X
X
X
X
N
NO
X
X
X
X
Resources
T
X HC
X
X
Operator
Los Angeles County APCD
Riverside County APCD
Riverside County APCD
Riverside County APCD
San Bernardino County
San Bernardino County
Board
APCD
APCD
74
-------
2.4.1 The Transport Hypothesis
Air quality monitoring stations in the Southeast Desert AQCR, in
particular those in the Coachella Valley, record photochemical oxidant
levels up to five times the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS).
Due to the severe air pollution in the South Coast Air Basin, it has
frequently been hypothesized that pollution in these desert regions is
the result of transport from the Los Angeles area; several arguments are
presented here in support of this hypothesis.
A cursory examination of the oxidant problem in the Southeast Desert
Air Basin yields an intuitatively obvious answer that extreme oxidant
levels result basically from influx of South Coast Air Basin pollution
rather than from accumulation of local emissions. For one, it is well
documented that the Southeast Desert Air Bassin lies directly downstream
of the South Coast Air Basin during the photochemical smog season, i.e.
summer and fall. During these periods, oxidant levels in the South Coast
region sometimes reach up to six or seven times the NAAQS. The consistent
meteorological pattern during the Southern California smog season is a
relatively strong daytime sea breeze, typically 4-10 m.p.h., from 11 a.m.
to 9 p.m. PDT.l During each day, this wind pattern continuously carries
the air mass that has spent overnight and early morning in the South
Coast area, into the Southeast Desert.
Second, the transport hypothesis seems plausible because of the
great difference in pollution potential between the South Coast and South-
east Desert regions. Table 2-29 presents some comparative statistics for
the Los Angeles and desert regions, as compiled by the California Air
Resources Board (CARB). In light of the strikingly different emission
densities for the two areas, it makes sense that much of the pollution
monitored in the desert areas originates from the South Coast Air Basin.
This pollution potential argument should be viewed with caustion, how-
ever, since the emission sources in the Southeast Desert region are con-
centrated in certain areas, e.g. the Coachella Valley, while much of the
33,000 square miles of the region is barren.
1. Neiburger, M. and Edinger, J., "Meteorology of the Los Angeles Basin,"
Report No. 1 of the Air Pollution Foundation, Southern California Air
Pollution Foundation, 1954.
75
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TABLE 2-29. COMPARATIVE STATISTICS FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND
SOUTHEAST DESERT AIR BASINS (1970)
Population (10 )
2
Land area (10 sq. mi.)
Population density (persons/sq. mi.)
Motor Vehicles (106)
Motor vehicle density (vehicle/sq.mi .)
Daily emissions (Tons)
Reactive hydrocarbons
Nitrogen Oxides
Emission Density (Tons/1000 sq. mi.)
Reactive hydrocarbons
Nitrogen Oxides
South Coast Southeast Desert
Density Density
Factors Factors
9.7
8.68
>6
1790
1570
1120
^690
206
181
0.48
33.6
0.3
86
112
14
8.9
2.6
3.3
Source: State of California, Air Resources Board,
California Emission Inventory - 1970, July, 1972.
Third, the transport hypothesis is supported by the opinions of local
APCD workers who are familiar with the problem. Walter Hamming (L.A.
County APCD), Mel Zeldin (San Bernardino County APCD), and Tony Hernandez
s
(Riverside County APCD) all concur that the Southeast Desert oxidant
problem basically results from spillover from the South Coast Air Basin.
However, air pollution control decisions for the Southeast Desert
Air Basin should not be based on a cursory examination of probable source.
It is possible, although not very probable, that the sources in the South-
east Desert are concentrated enough and that the local meteorological dis-
persive conditions are weak enough to allow local sources to play a great
part in producing extreme oxidant values.
76
-------
To really ascertain what part of the oxidant problem in the South-
east Desert is local and what part is transported would require a physio-
chemical diffusion model which could calculate oxidant levels produced
from any distribution of emission sources and any meteorology. Unfor-
tunately, no accurate models of this type are available. In lieu of such
a model, an examination of past air monitoring and meteorological data
will be made here to check the transport hypothesis.
Basically, several short analyses will be made:
t The geographical pattern of time of maximal oxidant, as compiled
from local APCD monitoring data, will be examined and inferences
drawn.
• Typical wind patterns will be presented and checked for consis-
tency with the transport hypothesis.
2
• The Coachella Valley Air Quality Study by Pollution Research
and Control Corporation will be briefly reviewed. This study
was also undertaken to address the air pollution transport
phenomena.
2.4.2 Geographical Pattern of Maximal Oxidant Time
Figure 2-18 presents the geographical distribution of maximal oxidant
times for the South Coast and Southeast Desert Air Basins during the early
1970s. The average time of maximal oxidant, for days with maximal oxidant
exceeding 10 pphm, is given for various air monitoring stations. The
data used for the calculations are basically for the months June through
September, the photochemical smog season in Southern California. Persis-
tent temperature inversions, high temperatures, and intense solar radia-
tion during these months lead to higher oxidant readings than those
typically found in other months.
The most significant feature of Figure 2-18 is the increase in peak
oxidant time with increasing distance inland. In the region within twenty
miles of the coast, i.e., Reseda, Burbank, Los Angeles, West Los Angeles,
Anaheim, and Long Beach, average oxidant peak times are all prior to 1:30
p.m., PDT. Slightly further inland, at the Newhall, Pasadena, El Monte,
La Habre, and Pomona stations, average peak times vary from 1:30 to 2:30
p.m., PDT. In the western portion of the South Coast Air Basin, namely
2. Kauper, E. K., Coachella Valley Air Quality Study. Pollution Research
and Control Corporation, Glendale, California, September 30, 1971.
3. Acknowledgement is due to Mel Zeldin of the San Bernardino
County APCD for providing the basic idea and some of the
data for this illustration.
77
-------
Barstow
oo
Lancaster (a)
•4:30
VictorvUle (d)
• 6:10
^llf'r'}tf/s
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS
t a^V>^:>^;>-so u r^x^^
" ' » tr»~*rt^*i*>•"". 'i « /*— . .u ^?. ,An/^r\ "•._*s.
Palm Springs (c)
• 7:40
Indlo (c)
X^X,, \_ ^ x A ^ XJ^\ ^ ">» ""^ *™\ ^ *^\ ^*>.»-v^v*\_l. A \ •» > -*^\^\—s--.-^.--^'-*^.>-i-.«, x_\_v > * •« A •»--%—*—,—.— — -
Figures-is. Geographical Distribution of Average Time of Oxidant Peak (pm/PDT)
-------
(Averages are for the five days of highest
maximal oxldant at each station in 1971
and 1972)
32
28
~ 24
S"
Q.
~ 20
§ 16
X
o
UJ
13 10
UJ
- VICTORVILLE
LANCASTER
DOWNTOWN L.A.
10 12 2
NOON
TIME OF DAY (POT)
10
12
Figure 2-19. Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the Upper Southeast Desert
and for Downtown Los Angeles
-------
San Bernardino and Riverside, average oxidant peak times occur between
3:00 and 4:00 p.m. Further inland still, as the Southeast Desert is
reached, the average oxidant times varied from 4:30 at Lancaster to 9:00
at Indio.
This geographic oxidant peak pattern is indicative of pollution trans-
port. Areas toward the west apparently have earlier oxidant peaks be-
cause these areas are the first to have the polluted air of the central
South Coast Basin replaced by the cleaner marine air of the daily sea
breeze. Areas toward the eastern part of the South Coast Air Basin
have later oxidant peaks because they receive much of the most polluted
air later in the day; that is, air which has been nearer the coast during
the night and early morning and which has moved across the South Coast
Air Basin during the day. In the Southeast Desert, peak oxidants occur
extremely late (4:30 to 9:00 p.m.) and are evidently associated with
influx of the most polluted South Coast Basin air. These late peak times
attest to transport of oxidant pollution rathern than local formation
because they occur after solar radiation intensity, which powers the
photochemical reactions, has waned.
To further substantiate that the oxidant problem in the Southeast
Desert basically results from influx from the South Coast Basin, it should
be shown that the oxidant peaks are significantly higher than oxidant
levels at other times during the day. Figures 2-19 and 2-20 give the
diurnal oxidant pattern at five continuous monitoring stations in the
Southeast Desert, and for comparison, at downtown Los Angeles. For each
station, the diurnal pattern is averaged over the five highest oxidant
days for that station during the years 1971 and 1972.
All five desert stations show a very significant peak in the late
afternoon or evening. This corresponds to the expected arrival time of
air parcels from the South Coast Basin moved by the daily sea breeze at
about 6-7 miles per hour. These peaks are significantly higher than levels
late in the morning which result from irradiation of the air mass that has
spent overnight in the area and might be more indicative of local pollu-
tion. However, it should be noted that even the overnight air would have
80
-------
(Averages are for the five days of highest
maximal oxidant at each station in 1971
and 1972)
CO
o.
0.
32
28
24
20
X ,,
o 16
12
8
4
INDIO
PALM SPRINGS
BANNING
DOWNTOWN L.A.
10 12 2
NOON
TIME OF DAY (PDT)
10
12
Figure 2-20.
Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the Lower Southeast Desert
and for Downtown Los Angeles
-------
spent the previous day in the South Coast Air Basin and could have resi-
dual oxidant precursors originating from the South Coast region as well
as new precursors from the local area. The marked intensity of the
evening peak attests to the most significant portion of the Southeast
Desert oxidant being the result of transport from the South Coast Air
Basin.
A striking contrast exists between the patterns for oxidant buildup
in Los Angeles and the Southeast Desert. Los Angeles, with high accumu-
lation of local emissions overnight, starts to reach significant oxidant
levels in the later morning as solar radiation becomes intense. An oxi-
dant peak is attained at about noon. The sea breeze then brings in rela-
tively clean marine air and during the afternoon oxidant levels decline.
After the sun sets, oxidant levels are suppressed to below the natural
background (about 3-5 pphm) by accumulation of NO emissions which
immediately react with ozone.
In the Southeast Desert, oxidant starts toward a peak as the sun
sets! The peak is reached, on the average, between 4:30 (at Lancaster)
and 9:00 (at Indio). However, on some nights, the peak has occurred as
late as midnight at Indio. Local NO emissions are not great enough to
consume much oxidant during the night, and considerable oxidant levels
persist during the early morning hours, especially in the Coachella
Valley. A slight rise occurs with the onset of sunlight each morning.
However, this rise soon levels off, and it is not until late afternoon
or early evening that oxidant pollution will again reach extreme values.
2.4.3 Typical Wind Patterns
The sea breeze dominates the typical daylight wind pattern in Southern
California during the summer and early fall. Winds, flowing from the west,
sweep across the South Coast Basin in an easterly or northeasterly direc-
tion and enter the Southeast Desert after transversing the mountain passes.
Figure X-5 illustrates this consistent meteorological pattern.
Assuming that a typical South Coast Basin air parcel stagnates over-
night and during the early morning and then is carried inland by a 7 mph
4. U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Air Quality
Criteria for Photochemical Oxidants. March, 1970.
82
-------
09
JS
Source: State of California, The Resources Agency, Air Resources Board, The State of Caliform'a
Implementation Plan for Achieving and Maintaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standards,
January 30, 1972.
Figure2-21. Air Flow Patterns - South Coast Air Basin (October 1200-1800 PST)
-------
sea breeze starting at 11:00, and further assuming that the air flows in
the general direction shown in Figure 2-21, the following possibilities
arise. The air in Lancaster at 4:30, the time of average oxidant peak,
could have stagnated overnight in the San Fernando Valley. With a
slightly higher wind speed, it could have arrived from the Ventura-0
Oxnard area. The air in Victorville at 6:10 probably originated from
somewhere in the central SCAB, with origins in all four counties -- Los
Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside -- being possible. The
air in Banning at 6:20, Palm Springs at 7:40, or Indio at 9:00 most likely
also came from somewhere in the central South Coast Air Basin; again,
origins in all four counties are possible.
Thus, the mechanism certainly exists for transporting South Coast
Air Basin oxidant pollution to the Southeast Desert. In fact, the typical
wind pattern during the photochemical smog season is such that the South-
east Desert lies directly downstream of the South Coast Basin during the
day and early evening. This wind pattern is entirely consistent with
the findings presented previously, that maximum oxidant occurs late in
the afternoon or early in the evening in the Southeast Desert and that
this oxidant is transported, rather than locally formed.
2.4.4 The Coachella Valley Air Quality Study by Pollution Research
and Control Corporation
From July 1970 to July 1971, Pollution Research and Control Corporation
(PRCC) performed an air quality monitoring project in the Coachella Valley
of the Southeast Desert under contract to the Riverside County APCD and
with partial funding by the U. S. Public Health Service. The main objec-
tive of this project was to determine the source of high oxidant pollu-
tion in the Coachella Valley. As noted above (see Table 2-27) the three
continuous monitoring stations in the Coachella Valley record maximal
1-hour oxidant levels several times the NAAQS and almost twice as high
as levels found at the other two continuous stations (Lancaster and
Victorville) in the Southeast Desert.
84
-------
The project consisted of a series of simultaneous measurements of
meteorological factors and air quality. Weather parameters were measured
at ground stations, during aircraft flights, and with balloon soundings.
Ground stations and aircraft flight also provided the air pollution data.
The data were analyzed by constructing pollution and weather frequency
distributions, wind roses, backward air trajectories, and atmospheric
cross sections.
The analysis led to the conclusion that the source of high oxidant
levels in the Coachella Valley is apparently emissions from the South
Coast Air Basin. Of the 18 air parcels which showed maximum oxidant
greater than or equal to .12 ppm and for which reliable trajectories
were constructed, 17 had arrived in the Coachella Valley through the San
Gorgonio Pass from the South Coast Air B sin. The one other trajectory
arrived from the northerly direction, although before coming from the
north, it too likely transversed the South Coast Air Basin. Trajectories
typical of those associated with high oxidant levels are shown in Figure
2-22.
With regard to the transport phenomena, the following pertinent
exerpts have been taken from the PRCC study:
"With respect to the photochemical air pollution problem,
it is apparent that the Coachella Valley is subject to intrusion
of the aged photochemical pollution cloud from the coastal area
of Southern California. The local automotive traffic source
does not appear to be of sufficient strength to explain the
measured values, especially since the levels of oxides of nitrogen
recorded in the Valley are low."
"Characteristically, the high oxidant was found associated
with the appearance of northwesterly winds in the Coachella
Valley. This condition usually occurs in the late afternoon or
evening, both at the upper and lower Coachella sampling stations;
the time of arrival being earlier at the upper station. The
trajectories associated with this situation showed that the
pollutants moved across the mountain boundary separating the
Coachella Valley from the coastal valleys to the west."
85
-------
00
COACH6.LLA
o « 1 » *
Numbers at dot locations refer to the time parcel was at indicated
location: 1900 = 1900 PST. Maximum oxidant (ppm) indicated at
sampling station location.
Figure 2-22. Trajectories of Air Arriving at 2000 and 2100 PST, July 27, 1970
-------
"The intrusion of the oxidant pollution cloud from the north-
west is typical of the state of the atmosphere in the Coachella
Valley during late afternoon in the summer. The polluted air
moves down from San Gorgonio Pass with the low level northwesterly
wind. The air mass over the desert is relatively unstable. The
edge of the polluted mass is sharply defined, presenting almost
a vertical front as it moves across the Valley."
2.4.5 Conclusion
Based on the available information cited, several conclusions can
be drawn with regard to the origins of high oxidant concentrations in
the Southeast Desert region. Although several of the arguments presented
are based on inferences, rather than actual scientific evidence, there
is significant data which supports the hypothesis that air pollution in
the South Coast Air Basin is transported and contributes substantially
to high oxidant levels in the desert areas east of Los Angeles. A
summary of this support evidence is given below:
• The difference in the pollutant emission densities for the
two regions would suggest much lower oxidant readings for the
Southeast Desert than actually experienced. Given similar
meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature inversions,
intense solar radiation, wind conditions), only a spillover
of pollutants from the South Coast area into the Southeast
Desert adequately explains the high oxidant values.
• Typical wind patterns observed are consistent with the timing
of maximal oxidant levels in the Southeast Desert. The time
of maximum oxidant peaks occurs too late to be accounted for
by locally, generated emissions since the solar radiation
required to trigger the photochemical reactions has either
diminished greatly or disappeared.
t The difference in timing of observed maximum oxidant levels
between the South Coast and Southeast Desert Air Basins is
consistent with the typical wind patterns; oxidant levels
peak around noon or the early afternoon in the South Coast
areas and late afternoon or evening in the Southeast Desert.
• Other studies, including The Coachella Valley Air Quality
Study, have similarly concluded that air pollution is trans-
ported into the Southeast Desert from the South Coast Air
Bas in.
• The local air pollution control personnel contacted all agreed
that pollution problems in the desert regions were largely
attributable to transport phenomena.
87
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3.0 SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
3.1 Economic Impacts
The estimated costs of controls which require hardware and/or
services are summarized in this section. Table 3-1 is a summary of
estimated unit costs in each control category. Table 3-2 contains the
estimated costs to each region due to the various control strategies.
TABLE 3-1. ESTIMATED UNIT COSTS OF CONTROL MEASURES
Control Measure
Bulk terminal vapor recovery
system
Gasoline Marketing
Vapor Recovery System
Inspection/maintenance
Idle test (1975)
Loaded test (1977)
VSAD/LIAF retrofit
for pre-'66 LDV
Catalytic converter retrofit
Unit
Bulk loading
termi nal
Service Station
Automobile
n
Automobile
Automobile
Cost
Initial
$200,000 $
6,300
1.21
1.98
35.00
175.00
Annual
0
30.00
5.12
10.23
0
0
3.2 Social Impacts
Social impacts are non-monetary costs attributable to the imposition
of a set of constraints. These impacts are generally measured by the loss
of time, opportunity, and/or inconvenience. The magnitude of the impacts
is primarily a function of age, race, and income level. Measures which
are intended to influence, control, or restrict the ownership and use of
motor vehicles will, in general, result in social impacts. In a similar
and related manner, measures which affect personal mobility, mode choice
decisions, and regional access also induce social costs. To date, due to
the very nature of social impacts, it has been difficult to quantitatively
evaluate them. For example, only a limited amount of research has been
devoted to estimating lost-opportunity costs with respect to not making a
trip. However, several studies involving Los Angeles have been published
in attempts to quantify these impacts in a particular locale. Data from
-------
TABLE 3-2 ESTIMATED REGIONAL COSTS FOR EACH MEASURE
CONTROL MEASURE SAN FRANCISCO SAN JOAQUIN SACRAMENTO
bulk terminal
vapor recovery $6,000,000
gasoline marketing
controls
initial 31,200,000 $15,851,000 $ 7,119,000
annual . 274,000 209,000 188,000
inspection/maintenance
Idle test
initial 3,538,000 756,000 810,000
annual 15,000,000 3,202,000 3,434,000
Loaded test (additional cost over idle test cost)
initial 2,582,000 524,000 590,000
annual 14,920,000 3,107,000 3,419,000
VSAD/LIAF retrofit . 22,400,000 5,192,000 5,709,000
catalytic converter
retrofit 188,000,000 38,236,000 41,383,000
TOTAL COST (including loaded I/M)
initial $253,720,000 $60,559,000 $55,611,000
annual 30,194,000 6,518,000 7,041,000
Per Capita Cost
initial $51 $56 $55
annual 7 7 7
89
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these studies have been used in the following discussion, under the
assumption that a reasonable number of similarities between Los Angeles
and each of the three major urban areas exists for quantitative impact
evaluation.
It will be important for APCD's and planning agencies to anticipate
and minimize the impact of controls where possible. Increased public
awareness and concern have been largely responsible for the desires to
live in a clean environment. In addition, public participation in the
decision making process will continue" to be crucial to the orderly
transition and acceptability of various controls. To be meaningful, citizen
participation must be encouraged at the local and county levels. Only then
can the final decisions concerning which controls are applicable for a given
region be complete and a reflection of the public's desires; this in turn
will result in minimizing the social impacts.
3.2.1 Stationary Source Measures and Vehicle-Oriented Mobile Source Measures
The per capita costs of the stationary source control measures and
the vehicle-oriented control measures recommended in this study have been
shown to be nominal. The actual distribution of the vehicle costs may
tend to be socially regressive, in that the poor elements of the population
experience a heavier burden by comparison when required to pay the costs
of retrofit devices and vehicle maintenance. For example, the cost of the
pre-1966 retrofit measure and the maintenance cost of vehicles rejected
during the inspection procedure are most likely to affect the poor more
strongly than the middle class and the rich, since the poor are more
likely to own the older and poorly maintained veh.icles. The total of
these two costs, as estimated in Section 3-1. are significant compared to
the probable market value of the vehicles in these categories in 1975 and
1977.
Redistribution of these costs has been the subject of numerous
research efforts in the state of California. Among the recent proposals
for consideration are the following alternative payment schemes:
t User-Pays ~ the cost of a control strategy is
totally assumed by the owners of the vehicles
affected.
90
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t Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle-Mile-Driver -- the
total annualized regional costs are divided by
the annual vehicle miles driven. This could
be monitored by annual odometer readings during
registration, for example.
• Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle -- the total annualized
regional costs are divided by the number of light
duty vehicles in the basin. Each vehicle owner
then pays an identical amount per vehicle. Payment
could be made by a uniform increase in vehicle
registration fees.
• Uniform-Payment-Per-Unit of Pollution Emitted --
costs for automotive pollution is proportional
to pollution emitted, i.e. a form of a "smog"
tax. Administered through inspection/maintenance
and annual registration cycle. Individual costs
become a function of mileage and exhaust
characteristics.
• Income-Proportional -- payment of the control
strategy is made on a scale that is directly
proportional to income. For this scheme, every-
one in the region - not just those owning vehicles -
is responsible for financing the additional
controls.
In the above list, the user pays scheme must be regarded as the
most regressive. That is, the vehicle ownership by model year is suffi-
ciently biased that the largest burden rests on the group with the smallest
income. Conversely, the income proportional scheme is the least regressive
in this sense.
3.2.2 Impact on Mobility Patterns
Among the control measures being recommended are those which will
directly impact existing mobility patterns, or when and where people
travel. These measures are dealt with in the following discussions. The
magnitude of the social impact to be expected from any measures depend
heavily on regional characteristics. Present driving patterns have evolved
slowly and intuition suggests these patterns will show a high degree of
resistance to change.
3.2.2.1 Reducing Optional Trips
When a person makes a trip from one location to another, it is done
to serve some human need or desire. The choice of travel mode, as well
91
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as the actual decision to travel, both involve a human decision process.
Both decisions are probably made rationally with due consideration for a
number of actual and apparent factors. The ability of various individuals
to accurately assess these factors varies, but overall, incorrect judg-
ments in both directions tend to offset each other. Upon consideration of
the actual and perceived factors relating to a trip, the individual
decides whether or not to make the trip and by which mode to travel. Once
the decision has been made to make the trip,, to eliminate or prohibit this
trip would mean that some need would be unmet or purpose unfulfilled.
It must be emphasized that attempting to define which travel is
optional or unnecessary is difficult. One obvious difficulty involves
the definitions of terms such as, "necessary, optional, and essential;"
Since we are dealing with personal value judgments, what one individual
views as unnecessary may be considered very essential to another
individual. Even for the same individual and the same trip, circumstances
frequently change so that the individual's perception of the need to make
the trip change. Another difficulty encountered in assessing individual
needs is the dynamic state of decision making as it relates to human
values with the passage of time. The steady growth of VMT experienced
since World War II has in large part been attributable to an improved
quality of life. This affluence has resulted in a higher standard of
living with an increased ability to afford more travel and more time to
partake of it. What was once the Sunday afternoon drive in the park has
now become the weekend excursion to the resort areas.
In order to even approximate what level of trip making is optional
or marginally necessary, it is necessary to superimpose one set of human
values upon another. The imposition of new values upon others will
always result in social costs to the individuals affected. The magnitude
of these costs are related to the severity of the constraints and the
individual's ability to adapt to the constraints. It is apparent,
therefore, that caution be exercised in carefully weighing the societal
costs associated with the gains to be derived and the degree of controls
needed to attain any desired level of VMT reduction.
A number of factors enter into any decision concerning whether or
not a trip should be undertaken. For example, a ghetto family without a
92
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car will make fewer trips overall than an upper class family which has
three cars at its disposal. In this case, the differences in opportunity
will define the trip making characteristics and needs. Because of dif-
ferences in household characteristics and physical environments, eliminating
identical trips are perceived to have significantly different impact
depending on the groups experiencing the impact. Controls which will result
in trip reductions should not only consider trips intended for basic
functions as working and shipping, but also the human needs for recreation
and relaxation.
3.2.3 Impact on Accessibility
In many of the regions discussed here, it can be.said that "to have
a job, you must have a car and to have a car, you must have a job." This
relationship of employment opportunities (especially for certain
minorities) to transportation has been alluded to previously. The trans-
portation system control measures recommended in this study will have a
definite impact on accessibility and, consequently, they will result in
social impacts.
In general, it is estimated that impacts from accessibility-restrictive
measures are minor and can be very positive. The intent is generally to
penalize private transportation while favoring public transit. In addition
to being conservation-oriented, such schemes tend to favor many of the
underprivileged population segments.
3.2.4 Impact on Mode Choice Decisions
Numerous factors affect an individual's choice of travel mode.
Those relating to the individual include age, sex, and income. Equally
important are variables dealing with the individual's environmental
surroundings -- land use patterns and transportation systems. Land use
patterns,and trends are such that choices of modes other than the auto-
mobile are inherently discouraged.
Experience has shown that additional important factors in mode
choice decision-making are related to the transportation system and its
performance characteristics. Basically, the parameters which determine
mode choice are the time and money associated with the trip. Viewing
the trip in terms of time and money, making the trip requires a certain-
economic cost. Obviously, the traveler will attempt to reduce the
actual and perceived costs. 93
-------
Most of the controls being considered increase the cost of private
automobile travel and/or reduce the cost of public transportation. The
purpose, of course, is to induce higher percentages of people onto public
transit. While aiding those dependent on transit services, measures which
make it more expensive to drive tend to be regressive. As such, the
social impacts experienced will be more heavily felt by the poor.
It has been shown that time costs are frequently a more serious
penalty to the middle and high income groups. Consequently, measures
which result in time penalties, e.g., ramp metering, exclusive bus and
carpool lanes, are often more effective at inducing transit ridership
than monetary fees. From an equity standpoint, these controls are highly
desirable since the poor place less value on their time. As a result, one
would expect a more uniform mode shift by income groups from such controls.
The result of the recommended control measures on mode choice
decisions will generally favor more extensive public transit usage.
Socially, the impacts will initially be viewed as inconveniences and to
a limited extent, a loss of personal mobility. In the long run, as
adjustments are made to new life styles, these impacts will have been
appreciably diminished.
3.2.5 Summary of Social Impacts
Table 3-3 presents a summary of the overall social impacts likely
to occur as a function of the control measures. Estimates for the extent
of the overall impacts are intended to present a relative index and have
to be qualified by some rather simplifying assumptions. For example, it
was assumed that the young, old, poor and minorities owned old cars (if
any), drove primarily out of necessity, and placed little value on their
time. The "average" American, however, was viewed as relatively mobile,
the owner of at least one car, and someone who placed a high value on
his time.
The impacts on mobility were considered to be those which impeded
when trips would be made and what types of trips would be made; these
effects were related directly to the typical urban driving patterns.
Accessibility impacts are those which restrict where one goes and the
ease with which the trips can be made.
94
-------
TABLE 3-3. SUMMARY OF SOCIAL IMPACTS
Control Measure
Phase I Measures (Recommended)
Gasoline Marketing
Evaporative Loss Control
Organic Surfacing Coating Substitution
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Degreaser Substitution
Burning Regulation
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Aircraft Controls
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Improvement of Public Transit
Increased Car Pooling
Parking Control
Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted)
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing
Impact on Sodo-Economic
Young/
Elderly Poor Minorities
0
0
0
0
0
-
0
—
—
+
0
0
0
—
0
0
'
—
0
0
0
0
0
"
0
—
—
+
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
—
0
0
0
0
0
-
0
—
--
+
o •
0
0
0
0
0
—
--
Groups
Average
Citizen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
-
0
-
-
0
-
0
0
-
-
Impact
on
Mobility
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
+
-
-
0
-
0
0
0
--
Impact
on
Accessibility
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
+
0
-
0
-
0
0
0
0
Impact on
Mode - Choice Decision
Private Public
Auto Transit
0
0
0
0
0
-
0
—
--
0
-
-
0
0
0
0
--
—
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
++
• +
+
0
.0
0
0
0
0
en
LEGEND (RELATIVE IMPACTS)
•H- Very Favorable
+ Favorable
0 Very Minor or None
- Unfavorable
-- Very Unfavorable
-------
Lastly, a summary of the impact on mode choice decisions is given.
This considered the relative effect a given measure would have on the
attractiveness of the predominant transportation modes, i.e., the private
auto and public transit.
For each control measure, there are usually several kinds of programs
which can be instituted and even more ways of implementing them. In many
cases, the means by which a program is implemented can significantly affect
the degree of social impacts encountered. To illustrate this point,
several examples are considered below.
o Retrofit devices are shown to have a very unfavorable
impact on the young/elderly, poor, and minorities.
This has assumed these groups have old cars which are
not used much and which require expensive retrofits,
e.g., catalytic converters. If individuals in these
groups had no car or the government provided subsidies
to finance the retrofits, the impacts would be completely
different.
o Pricing schemes are also shown to have regressive impacts
on the young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This assumes
relatively uniform fee or taxing policies on all groups.
As discussed in Section 3.1.2, a host of methods are
available to insure a more equitable distribution
of pollution control costs. Institution of such
financing schemes would change the overall impacts on
special population groups.
o Gasoline rationing is noted as a very unfavorable impact
on the young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This assumes
a free market situation where gasoline is limited at the
distributor level and the price is allowed to seek its
own level. The net result would be almost equivalent to
uniform taxing policies. Those less able to afford gas
would be priced off the road. If, however, a rationing
system was established allocating equal shares of gas
to all vehicles at fixed prices, the social impacts
would be significantly changed and more'favorable.
3.3 Public Attitude Surveys
Critical to the evaluation of the social impacts of the various
proposed control measures are surveys of public attitude toward such
measures. Since the passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970, numerous
surveys have been conducted throughout California for this very
purpose.
96
-------
A recent California Poll (Time Magazine, July 16, 1973) revealed
that:
• 62% of Californians are in favor of building rail
rapid transit lines, even at an increased tax cost
of $100/year/family.
t 62% back the much criticized Clean Air Act of 1970,
even if Detroit is threatened with partial shutdowns
for failure to meet the law's strict requirements.
• 55% favor the law's requirement that cars and trucks
have antipollution devices, even if those devices cost
$300 per car.
• 55% think that the schedule for installing effective
exhaust control equipment by 1976 is "about right";
another 27% think the schedule is "too slow."
• 76% rejected the notion of closing off certain
freeways to discourage "excessive driving."
• 56% oppose a drastic slowdown in the state's freeway
building program.
The results of a survey taken in San Francisco, Sacramento, Stockton,
Fresno, and Bakersfield, in conjunction with this study, revealed the
following: (See Appendix A for detailed results).
• About 80-90 percent of all respondents in all cities
feel auto air pollution is a serious or very serious
nationwide problem. This feeling is highest in
Fresno (89%) and lowest in Sacramento (81%).
• Respondents in all five cities feel that auto air
pollution is a more serious problem nationwide
than it is locally.
• A law requiring auto emission control equipment on
all pre-1975 cars is much more acceptable at a
government subsidized cost of $50 than a non-government
subsidized cost of $125. Regardless of the cost, this
law is viewed more favorably by respondents in Fresno.
A law requiring inspection of this equipment is viewed
more favorably by respondents in Fresno and Bakersfield.
Respondents in all cities would expect to pay at least
$7.00 for the inspection; the maximum expected
cost is $9.32.
• In all cities the two most acceptable proposals (based
on mean ratings) for controlling auto air pollution are
"prohibit traffic/parking in central business districts"
97
-------
and "create car pool/bus only lanes on major
thoroughfares." The two most unacceptable are
$200 registration fee for each auto" and "have
tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares."
Respondents were also asked to indicate which
proposals were most/least acceptable. These
data are consistent with the mean ratings except
that "gasoline rationing" replaced "have tolls
on exit ramps" as one of the two most unacceptable
proposals.
• The most acceptable proposal for combating a
possible gasoline shortage is to limit purchases
to 90 percent of current consumption. Least
acceptable are proposals to double the price of
gasoline and to impose an emission tax of $15 per
thousand miles traveled.
• Interest in car pools as a means of reducing auto
air pollution ranges from 41-48 percent of the
respondents in each city, except Bakersfield.
However, in the latter city, where the level of
interest is 31%, more respondents are already in
a car pool or do not travel to work by car. A
majority of respondents in all cities feel getting
into a car pool would be difficult.
• Rating of proposals for reducing traffic congestion
varied by the city. Those rated most effective included
"improving timing of traffic signals" and "prohibiting
parking, loading, and unloading on busy streets." Among
those considered least effective was "widening major
streets at intersections."
• Public transportation usage is highest in San Francisco
(94 trips per household per year). The remaining cities
are much lower in usage (ranging from 10-28 trips).
• Reasons for public transportation usage vary by city. In
San Francisco, it is used because it's cheaper and less
congested. In Sacramento, it's used because it's cheaper
and because the user does not have a driver's license.
In the San Joaquin Valley cities, it is used by women and
children out of necessity (no car available or no driver's
license). Men in the San Joaquin Valley said they use
public transportation because it is faster, more available,
and more comfortable.
t Reasons for auto usage are the same in all cities -- faster,
more flexible, more available.
0 In general, the most effective proposals for encouraging
usage of public transportation facilities are: more
98
-------
frequent service, faster travel, more conveniently
located stops and stations, and lower fares.
t In all cities, there is a substantial reluctance
(67 percent or higher) to dispose of any car or
cars even if public transportation were improved.
99
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4.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
This section deals with the implementation of the control strategies
proposed in this report. Discussion is confined to two areas: the
procedure and time schedule for implementation of the strategies, and the
responsibilities of the government agencies which will be involved in their
implementation.
4.1 Procedure and Time Schedule
The proposed time schedule for implementation of the control strategy
is given in Table 4-1. The dates shown for promulgation of the plan are
those prescribed by Federal law. Legislative authority for the recommended
Phase I measures must be obtained by the end of 1973; gasoline rationing
legislation should be obtained by the end of 1975.
As the table indicates, all gasoline marketing facilities should be
controlled to the extent recommended by mid-1975. That is, existing
facilities should be retrofit with appropriate control systems by that
date, and all new facilities built after that date should be required to
include control systems in their construction.
A development program for substitutes for organic surface coating
compounds is currently underway and should be continued. The use of less
reactive substitutes should be expanded, beginning in 1974. Carbon
adsorption systems effective to the degree recommended in this study are
currently available and should be installed at all dry cleaning estab-
lishments during 1974. Likewise, available substitutes for organic
degreasers should be implemented during 1974. Burning regulations, to
some degree, have already been instituted by the county APCD's. The
additional regulation recommended in this study should be in effect
through 1980.
The three vehicle-oriented control measures are Mandatory Inspection/
Maintenance, Oxidizing Catalytic Converter, and Pre-1966 Retrofit Device.
The first part of the inspection/maintenance program, the idle test with
the 10% rejection rate, should be carried out during 1975 and 1976. This
means that all light duty vehicles in each affected county should be
inspected (and 10% should be maintained) during the year 1975 and again
100
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TABLE 4-1. PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIME SCHEDULE
Element
Promulgation of Control Strategy Plan
. • Proposed Control Strategy Plan
• Public Hearings on Plan; Review and Evaluation of
Comments
t Promulgation of Final Control Strategy Plan
(15 August 1973)
Legislative Authority Required for Controls
California Air Resources Board • •
• Obtain enabling legislation for Inspection of
maintenance
• Obtain enabling legislation for additional
retrofit devices, e.g. catalytic converters
• Obtain enabling legislation to ration gasoline
Phase I Measures (Recommended)
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls
0 Establish necessary regulations
• Initiate program of controlling losses from
gasoline marketing
• All marketing facilities controlled
Organic Surface Coating Substitution
. » k -j
• Development OT alternatives (e*g. water*Daseu
or high solid control formulation)
• Expand use of less reactive substitutes
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
.• Implement Carbon Absorption Systems
Degreaser Substitution
• Implement substitution
1973
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:
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,
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1977
• 1978
1979
1980
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o
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Element
Burning Regulation
• Agricultural 4
t Incineration 4
Aircraft Emission Control
• Establish necessary regulations
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
• Program Design
• Program Preparation
•' Mandatory Loaded Emission Inspection
Oxldlzlm Catalytic Converter
• Installation Program
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
t Installation Program
Mass Transit Program
• Improve levels of service '
• Establish bus and carpool lanes on freeways
where feasible
• Establish park-and-r1de facilities where
feasible
19
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Element '
Phase II Measures (if demonstrate y warranted)
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
YWT Reduction through Gasoline Rationing
1973
1974
1975
-
1976
A-
4
t
-A
t
t
-At
1977
b
A-
•
-*
1978
A-
-A
1979
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1980
-------
during 1976. In 1977 and every year thereafter, all light duty vehicles
should be inspected using a loaded test, and 50% of them should be
required to receive maintenance. The installation of the oxidizing
catalytic converter should take place between mid-1974 and mid-1975.
The pre-1966 retrofit device should be installed during 1974.
The transportation system-oriented measures recommended for
implementation should begin in 1974 and should continue through 1980. It
is recommended that an aggressive public information program be instituted
in 1974 to encourage and advertise increased use of car pooling. Car
pooling should be coordinated among employees at work centers in the urban
centers beginning in mid-1974. Construction of parking facilities should
be limited as soon as possible, preferably by the end of 1973. Long-term
parking rates should be increased by the middle of 1974.
All Phase II measures should be implemented by 1977, if it is
demonstrated that they can be effective and that they are necessary. The
elimination of motorcycle use during smog season and gasoline rationing
involve relatively difficult institutional and administrative problems
and should be begun in 1976, so that these kinds of problems are obviated
by 1977 for maximum effectiveness of the measures in that year.
4.2 Agency Involvement
Table 4-2 gives the agency responsible for the implementation of
each of the control measures recommended in this study. The sections of
the California Health and Safety Code which provide the respective agencies
with the authority for implementation of the measures are listed in the
table also. It can be observed that the county APCD's have the authority
to implement all recommended stationary source controls. All that remains
in each case is for the Air Pollution Control Board of each agency to pass
or modify appropriate rules and regulations for use within each of the
counties. •
Vehicle-oriented mobile source controls, on the other hand, require
new .legislation, with the one exception being the pre-1966 retrofit device.
This device is already required in three air basins -- the South Coast,
San Diego, and San Francisco. Authority has been given to all APCD's in
the state for implementation of this measure. Thus, each of the APCD's in
104
-------
TABLE 4-2. AGENCY RESPONSIBILITY FOR
CONTROL MEASURE IMPLEMENTATION
Measure
Responsible
Agency
Authorizing
Legislation
(Sections of
California Health
and Safety Code)
Phase I
Stationary Source Controls
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative
Loss Control
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Degreaser Substitution
Organic Surface Coating Control
Mobile Source Controls
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Transportation System Controls
and Improvements
Aircraft Controls
Phase II
Stationary Source Controls
Additional Organic Solvent Use
Controls
Mobile Source Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During
Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/
Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Gasoline Rationing
Evaporative Retrofit Device
Additional Retrofit Devices
APCD
APCD
APCD
APCD
CARB
CARB/APCD
APCD
County/City
Government
FAA/EPA
APCD
CARB
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB/APCD
24260, 24260.
24260, 24260.
24260, 24260.
24260, 24260.
TBL
TBL
24263.8
24260, 24260
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
1
1
1
1
.1
TBL: To be legislated
105
-------
the affected regions needs to pass an appropriate rule requiring these
devices on light duty motor vehicles. Effective devices of this type have,
of course, been accredited by the CARB.
Authorizing legislation must be passed for the other two vehicle-
oriented measures. The CARB will be responsible for the mandatory
inspection/maintenance program, while, if the oxidizing catalytic converter
is required in only part of the APCD's of the state (as is likely), it will
be the responsibility of each APCD to implement necessary rules, and,
therefore, all APCD's must have the authority by state law to implement
the measure. Thus, two types of legislation must be passed for implemen-
tation of the catalytic converter measure* state legislative authority and
APCD rules, pending, of course, CARB accreditation of catalytic converter
devices.
Transportation system controls and improvements in Phase I do not
involve the requirement for major authorizing legislation. In each case,
it will require the appropriate division of the local city and county
governments to implement or modify regulations and to impose, where
necessary, procedural constraints and encouragements.
Stationary source measures in Phase II, as in Phase I, require no
additional authorizing legislation. On the other hand, mobile source
controls in Phase II all must be legislated. All will likely be at
least the partial responsibility of the CARB, although like the catalytic
converter, it is likely that the legal requirement for the three retrofit
measures in Phase II will actually be the authority of each APCD and that
each APCD will have the responsibility, after accreditation of hardware
by the CARB, to implement the measures in its jurisdictional area. It is
assumed for the present that gasoline rationing will be within the
authority of the CARB, although the actual legal requirements of this
controversial measure are vague.
106
-------
5.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION
The relative significance of obstacles to implementation of the
proposed control strategy has been estimated using the following
definitions of obstacle categories:
Technical obstacles - obstacles involving the design of
hardware, details of administrative procedure, or specification
of standards or acceptance limits necessary for implementing
recommended control measures.
Political obstacles - obstacles involving the feasibility
of productive interaction among appropriate leaders,
administrators, legislators, and special interest groups
for the purpose of instituting recommended control measures.
Institutional obstacles - obstacles involving the opposition
of institutions required by the plan with those already in
existence, and necessary adjustment thereof.
Socio-economic obstacles - obstacles involving the impact of
control measures on the public, commerce, and industry.
5.1 Phase I Measures
5.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures
• Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control - This
control may meet minor legislative and socio-economic
obstacles. Necessary laws and regulations are easily
specified since there is a large backlog of feasibility
studies and investigations involving this measure, and
since several APCD's in the state have already
instituted requirements for a similar measure and
can serve as a model. There should be very little
socio-economic impact due to this measure. The cost
of changes in gasoline refining and marketing will
indeed be passed on to the consumer, but the actual
cost increase per gallon should be small. Public
convenience should be little affected; consequently,
minimal adverse public reaction is expected for this
measure. The design and development of hardware for
evaporative control systems at the filling stations
and on tank trucks may provide a moderate technical
obstacle. These technical obstacles must be met by
the oil companies of California, since it will be
their responsibility to select appropriate methods
for meeting the proposed standards for gasoline
evaporative control. As a result, their reaction
to the proposal for the evaporative emission control
107
-------
measure is expected to present a moderate
political obstacle to implementation.
• Organic Surface Coating Substitution - This
measure should encounter no political or
institutional obstacles. It will encounter
some technical obstacles, in that substitutes such
as water-based coatings, high solids content coatings,
and powdered coatings are currently under development
and require lengthy testing before promising formulas
can be used commercially. A minor legal obstacle is
anticipated in writing rules which require the
recommended degrees of control by 1975 and 1977.
Small changes in the price of the product may create
minor socio-economic obstacles.
• Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - The principle of carbon
adsorption has been proven as an effective means
of controlling evaporative losses of solvents from
dry cleaning, and the required hardware is available.
Thus, no technical obstacles are anticipated. The
local APCD's have the authority to implement such
controls, and no institutional obstacles are
expected. The only legal obstacle to overcome is
the appropriate local rule making, and it should
be minor. No political or socio-economic obstacles
are expected.
• Degreaser Substitution - Acceptable non-reactive
substitutes for current degreaser solvents exist
and should encounter no major obstacles to
implementation by 1975. Rulemaking may present
a minor legal obstacle.
• Burning Regulations - Burning restrictions have
already been instituted to some degree, and it is
anticipated that more extensive regulation will
not meet significant obstacles.
5.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures
• Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - Part I -
Idle test, ten percent rejection rate.
Part I of this measure is technically simple,
and requires little more developmental or design
effort than has already gone into the random state
lane inspection already in existence in
California. No institutional obstacles are
anticipated, since the Department of Motor
Vehicles can include inspection/maintenance
certification as part of vehicle registration
requirements, much as it does with retrofit
devices. Furthermore, this measure may
108
-------
encounter few legal or political obstacles,
particularly if a current bill requiring
inspection and maintenance in the South Coast
Air Basin (Assembly Bill 380) passes both
houses and is signed by the Governor.
Legislation will remain a potential obstacle,
since four similar bills in 1972 and 1973 have
not passed the legislature and the administration.
Socio-economic obstacles should be minor.
• Part II - Loaded test. 50 percent rejection rate -
Obstacles for Part II of this measure will be
similar in nature to those expected for Part I,
but of larger magnitude. This testing method
is more involved and time-consming than the method
in Part I and will require more effort directed
toward technical development, design, instru-
ment assembly, and shelter construction. Legal
obstacles will consequently be significant,
and socio-economic obstacles will probably be
greater because of the higher cost and greater
inconvenience for the vehicle owner.
• Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - There are major
technical obstacles involving the implementation of
this retrofit measure by 1975. These obstacles are
due to several technical weaknesses in current
catalytic converter designs. Further development
and testing are required but would not be possible
if implementation is to occur by the recommended
dates. The converters will be relatively easy to
install, but they must be replaced periodically
(between 25,000 and 50,000 miles) and unleaded
fuel must be used. Furthermore, the converter is
costly as compared to other retrofit devicesJ and
for older vehicles, as compared to the value of
the auto. As a result, major socio-economic, political,
and legal obstacles are anticipated for this measure.
§ Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - Since exhaust control
devices incorporating vacuum spark advance disconnect
are already required for these model years in the
South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins,
it is not expected that this measure will encounter
any significant obstacles to implementation. A rule
must be written and passed by the appropriate Air
Pollution Control Board in each county, but this
should be a minor legal obstacle. VSAD is neither
costly or complicated, but it is effective and
should meet a minimum of social and political
opposition.
109
-------
t Aircraft Emission Controls - This control measure
should have only minor political and socio-economic
obstacles. Technical and institutional obstacles
may be more severe. The emission controls for new
and in-use aircraft engines will have major technical
obstacles. The ground operation procedure modification
elements of the measure may encounter moderate
institutional obstacles with FAA and the affected airport
authorities. Response by pilots to the measure is not
anticipated to be negative.
t Mass Transit - Mass transit improvements should meet
no institutional or legal obstacles, but there will
be significant technical, political and socio-
economic difficulties to be overcome. Technical
obstacles will involve the system design and fare
structure of the improvements. Socio-economic
obstacles will result from the actual design of the
system, and the funding mechanism for its insitution.
Political opposition will depend on how well the
other two major obstacles are met. The funding
aspects are expected to be the most controversial
portions.
5.2 Phase II Measures
5.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures
• Elimination of Motorcycle Use During Smog Season -
This measure will encounter few technical obstacles,
but political and legal obstacles will be quite
significant, considering the popularity of motor-
cycles in California (especially during the summer)
and the potentially significant political strength
of motorcycle manufacturers and enthusiasts. There
will be moderate socio-economic obstacles because of
the recreational and personal values of motorcycle
riding, and enforcement will be an institutional problem.
• Inspection/Maintenance for HDV - Inspection/maintenance
procedures for heavy duty vehicles have been developed
and tested in only a few areas of the country (New York
State, for example); the potential exists for major
technical obstacles to implementation in California.
Minor political, institutional, legal, and socio-
economic obstacles are also expected.
• Retrofit Devices for HDV - Obstacles to implementation
of a retrofit program for heavy duty vehicles are
expected to be very similar to those described for
inspection/maintenance.
110
-------
5.2.2 MOBILE SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES
t Gasoline Rationing - A large scale VMT reduction
through gasoline rationing would be extremely
difficult to implement. Since nearly everyone
would be affected, opposition can be expected on
all fronts. Due to the potential severity of the
measure, the political, institutional, and socio-
economic obstacles will be so great that they are
likely to force a reevaluation of the overall
program objectives, and constraints.
t Evaporative Retrofit Device - Major technical,
political, legal, and socio-economic obstacles
are anticipated for implementation of an
evaporative retrofit program. Although devices
for pre-1970 vehicles have not yet been developed,
it is expected that they will be costly compared
to the value of the vehicle and that installation
will not be simple.
• Additional Retrofit Measures - It is expected that
additional retrofit measures beyond those specifically
recommended in this study will encounter major
technical, political, institutional, legal, and socio-
economic obstacles during implementation. Most of these
additional devices are not cost-effective for application
in these air basins and will meet significant opposition.
Ill
-------
APPENDIX A
PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY
A-1
-------
The study was conducted using Consumer Mail Panels, Market Facts'
controlled mail panel facility. Questionnaires were sent to panel members
living in these metropolitan areas:
San Francisco Bakersfield
Sacramento Fresno
Stockton
Panel members were requested to fill out the questionnaires imme-
diately and return them to Market Facts as soon as possible. Certain
questions required the panel members (female household head) to obtain
responses from other members of the household. Approximately 965
questionnaires were mailed out, ranging from 522 in San Francisco to
67 in Bakersfield. Approximately 700 usable returns were received, a
return rate of 72 percent.
The questionnaires were mailed on April 18, 1972 and returns were
cut-off on May 10, 1972.
A-2
-------
CONSUMER MAIL PANELS
323 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET • CHICAGO, ILLINOIS 60*06
(3-D348)
Dear Panel Member,
Today, I am sending you a questionnaire which I consider both exciting and
interesting. Hopefully, you will too. This questionnaire deals with the impor«
tant problem of air pollution caused by automobiles.
As you know, autos are a major source of air pollution—especially in metro-
politan areas. You probably have read in newspapers or magazines that auto
manufacturers are being required to make changes in their cars that will
reduce the amount of pollutants coming out of cars. This will be particularly
true for cars manufactured in 1975 and thereafter.
Many pollution experts believe, however, that despite these new federal regu-
lations on auto air pollution, other ways will have to be found to further reduce
pollution caused by cars. The purpose of this questionnaire is to obtain your
reaction to these new auto pollution control ideas being suggested by the
experts. In answering some questions, you will probably have to consult
other members of your family to get their ideas and reactions. I am sorry
if this is inconvenient, but I am sure you will agree that the importance of
solving pollution problems is worth making every reasonable effort.
As always, please check each of your answers after you have completed the
questionnaire. Then return it to me in the enclosed postage-paid envelope.
If you have any additional comments, please write them on the lines pro-
vided in Question 12.
P.S.: For your help with this questionnaire I will be sending you a token of
my appreciation, as soon as the processing of completed questionnaires
is completed.
A-3
-------
CONSUMER MAIL PANELS
in MUTH rauutiM ITWtr CHICAGO. IU.INOII
(3-D348)
QTKSTIONNAIBJ:
1.
I.
Jc.
4a.
4k.
All auto8 made in 1975 ar:! thereafter will be equipped with emmision control device* to reduce air
pollution. If in ! 975 you owned a car built before that year, how would you {eel about a law re-\
quiring vou to put emission control equipment which might co»t $125 on your car? ("X" BE'fcOW)
How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by government subsidy to about $50?
("X" BELOW)
1. Cost $12» 2. Cost $50
Toward Law;
Very rnui;t; in favor of law . .
Somewhat in favor of law ...
Somewhat against law .....
Very much against law ....
Qi
}a. Even cars properly equipped with emmision control equipment might still pollute the air if the equip-
ment was not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic Inspection of
the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in
favor of law
Somewhat In ,
favor of law
Somewhat. ,
against law1
Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year,
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
Very much .-..
against law LJ
what wculd you consider a
20
Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection
should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY)
At state-operated inspection centers >Ql
At city-ope rated inspection centers. . Q2
At some other place (Specify):
Even if all autos were equipped with properly maintained 1
emission control systems, some cities might still have auto 1 u
air pollution problems due to the large number of cars I 3
either on the streets at the same time or concentrated in I j?
particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways 1 «
to reduce pollution under one or both of these conditions, 1 u
Please tell me how you feel about each of these proposals, f ^
("X" ONE ON EACH LINE) 1 •; j
Proposal! l^—^^l
c. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto but only ,-,
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central business districts Ql
e. A tax on all day parking in central business districts . . Ql
f. A tax on parking in centra) business districts regardless _.
of whether a person parked only one hour or all day —
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways and expressways Q]l
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways and expressways _ ..
i. Mandatory car pooling — allowing only cars ,
carrying at least three persons Ql
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only" and "car pool ,— ..
only" lanes on major expressways and streets. ... '-'
Which of the proposals listed above would be the mostacceptable ?
To Me This Proposal 1st 1
/"
tt
f ^0 ,jt
]
az
DZ
D2
DZ
D2
DZ
(Give
(Give
Ul
IS 3 a.
D3
D3
D3
D3
D3
D3
D3
Letter 4
Letter j
k
fu
a i
»i|
D4
D4
D4
D4
D4
D4
D4 .
D4
D4
/ - 1
I S I
/'/
I u f
i
g 1
DS
DS
as
as
as
DS
DS
DS
DS
13
D
14.16
Open
19
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
34
A-4
-------
Page 2
(3-D348)
QUESTIONS 5-6 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELATING TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM, IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
5a.
5b.
5c.
5d.
How often do the various member* of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, subway, or commuter train.)
Children
Husband Wife (Over 16 Yeara Old)
Three or more time* a week . ... CU •
Please rate each household member's reason for using public tri
important reason "1", the next most Important "2", the next "3"
never uses public transportation, "X" the "never use" box at the
Please rate each household member's reasons for traveling by a
as in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 5c)
5b. Public Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Reasons: Husband Wife Years Old)
a Cheaper (38) (39)-- (40)
b. Faster (44) (45) (46)
c. More comfortable (50) (51) (52)
d. Safer for passenger .... (56) (57) (58)
e Less congested (62) (63) (64)
f More available (68) (69) (70)
g. More flexible (I can come
and go as I please) . . . (15) (16) (17)
h. More relaxing (able to
read while traveling). . (21) (22) (23)
j. I do not have a driver's
license . . . (27) (28) (29)
k. Car is not available when
I need it (30) (31) ('2)
1. Other (Specify):
(33) (34) (35)
..QI ...ni
. .DZ ...QZ
:.D3(36) ...03,3,,
. .QS ...as
. .D6 ...a*
insportation. (Rate the most
etc. If a household member
bottom of the list.)
uto. Follow the same procedure
5c. Auto Transportation
Children
(Over 16
Husband Wife Yeara Old)
... (41) (42) (43)
. . • (47) (48) (49)
... (53) (54) (55)
... (59) (60) <61> (74.78
. . . (65) (66) (67) open)
... (71) (72) (73)79EIDBO
... (18) (19) <2°> Dup.
1-14
... (24) (25) (26)
(36) (37) (38)
-- - t -
m. Never use ("X" Box) . . . Ql D* Q3 (39) . . . Ql G2 Q3 (40)
Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effectiveness which items
below you feel would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the most
effective item a "1", the next most effective "2", the next "3", etc.)
Children
Items: Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
Cleaner and newer vehicles (41)
Air-conditioned vehicle* (47)
Parking facilities at stops or stations (56)
Shelters against bad weather at stops
Better security to assure personal
More conveniently located stops
Other (Specify):
(68)
(42) (43)
(45) (46)
(48) (49)
(51) (52)
(54) (55)
(57) (58)
(60) (61)
(63) (64)
(66) (67)
(71-78 open)
(69) (70) 79nZl80
A-5
-------
(3-D348) p»g, 3
6». How would you or other household member• feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool? '
("X" ONE ONLY) (Dup.
Very Interested Ql !->4 )
Somewhat Interested. . . . QZ
Not at all Interested . . . . Q3
Already in car pool Q4
Do not travel to and from r-|5
work by car
6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets In order to
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONLY)
Extremely difficult Ql
Very difficult ;QZ 16
Somewhat difficult Q3
Somewhat easy ( |4
Very easy Qs
Extremely easy ,-,,
Already In car pool . . . .Q7
7. One of the major causes of areas of high pollution is traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and stop-and-go traffic wag reduced. Listed below are
several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
; EACH IDEA)
Idea:
a. Prohibit parking, loading and unloading on busy streets Ql QZ Q3 Q4 17
b. Increase the number of one-way streets Ql QZ Q3 Q4 18
c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets to be used .—i i—,_ •—,, i—.^ .„
during rush hours
d. Prohibit turns at busy Intersections during rush hours . Ql QZ Q3 Q4 20
e. Widen major streets Ql QZ Q3 Q4 21
f. Widen major streets at intersections only Ql QZ Q3 Q4 22
g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or overpasses . . . Ql QZ Q3 Q4 2J
h. Improve timing of traffic signals Ql Qz Q3 Q4 24
i. Increase the number and frequency of radio traffic re-
ports Ql QZ Q3 Q4 Z5
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only" and "car pool
only" lanes on expressways and busy streets .... Ql Q2 Q3 Q4 26
Your ideas (Please List):
Ql Qz Q3 Q4 Z7
8. Since traffic congestion is most severe at times when people are going to or coming from work,
one alternative for reducing congestion would be to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM, others
would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM, others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about
this IdeaT ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in favor Ql
Somewhat in favor Q2
Indifferent Q3 28
Somewhat opposed Q4
Very much opposed . . . , . I 15
Dsal
I 1 1 I-
9. Along with the air pollution problem, the country
may also be faced with a gasoline shortage. The
following methods have been suggested as ways
to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso-
line. How do you feel about each of these pro-
posals ? ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
a. Gasoline rationing with drivers being allowed
to purchase during a year: Ql QZ Q3 Q4 QS 29
about 90 percent of the fuel now used
b. about 80 percent of the fuel now used Ql QZ Q3 Q4 Q5 30
c. about 2/3 of the fuel now used pi. p., n n _ -,
d. An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on the l~l LJ ^ ^ u
number of miles driven during a year: _ -*
at $10 per thousand miles LJ1 QZ Q3 Q4 Q5 „
c. at $15 per thousand miles D! QZ Q3 Q4 Qj
f. Doubling the price of gasoline and using j— ij ,— . _. _ 34
the additional revenue to imrove I— ' I— I* Q5
the additional revenue to improve
mass transit
A-6
-------
Page 4
lOa. Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW
UNDER lOa)
lOb. Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year. (WRITE IN
NUMBER OF MILES UNDER lOb BELOW)
(J-D348)
lOc. For each car, please estimate what percentage of last year'a mileage was accounted for
by driving outside your local metropolitan area. (For example, vacation, business trips,
short weekend trips, otc,) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER lOc)
Car *1
Car #2
Car #3
Car #4
lOa
Model Year
lOb
Last Year's
Mileage
Percentage of Mileage
Outside Local Area
lOd. How many licensed drivers are there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers:
D«
10e. If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of
the cars you own?
, ,.
Maybe LJ2
No
I0f-
m»ny? (WRITE IN)
-7
lla. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X" ONE
BOX UNDER lla BELOW)
lib. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE
BOX UNDER lib BELOW)
lla lib
City Nationwide
Very serious problem | 11 [ |I
Serious problem Q2 .,„. O2 ....
Slightly serious problem D* D3
No problem at all Q4 D4
12. If you have any views or comments regarding any question or idea, please record them belowi
(52-78
Open)
7SGEQ80
Thank you for your help. Please check your answers and then return the questionnaire to me in the;
enclosed postage-paid envelope.
A-7
-------
A.2 Detailed Findings - Auto Air Pollution
1. Seriousness of Auto Air Pollution
Over 80 percent of the respondents in each city rated auto air pollu-
tion as a "serious" or "very serious" nation-wide problem. Levels ranged
from a low of 81 percent in Sacramento to a high of 89 percent in Fresno.
In contrast, fewer than half of the respondents in any city felt that
auto air pollution in their city was a "serious" or
"very serious"
problem.
Greatest concern was expressed in San Francisco (49%) and least in Stock-
ton (20%).
Said Auto Air
Pollution Nation-
wide Is:
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
San
Fran-
cisco
Sacra-
mento
San Joaquin
Bakers- Valley
field Fresno Cities
Very serious 37
Serious 48
Slightly serious 14
No problem 1
36
51
13
48
36
11
5
42
45
12
1
Said Auto Air
Pollution In
Their City Is;
Very serious
Serious
Slightly serious
No problem
23
26
43
8
19
15
51
15
9
14
37
40
15
26
51
8
10
19
44
27
(Total Number of
Respondents) ('384)
('139)
(65)
(44)
(66)
(175)
A-8
-------
2. Regulation of Auto Air Pollution Through
Emission Control Equipment
a. By Law Requiring Equipment on All Autos
Respondents were asked how they would feel about a possible law
requiring them in 1975 to put emission control equipment on cars manu-
factured prior to 1975 at both a non-government subsidized cost of $125
per car or a government subsidized cost of $50 per car.
Fewer than 40 percent of the respondents in each city viewed the
non-subsidized cost favorably. Favorable reaction was highest in Fresno
(39%) and lowest in Stockton and Bakersfield (30%). However, a majority
of all respondents were in favor of the law with a government subsidized
cost.
Regardless of the cost to the owner, respondents in Fresno tended
to be more in favor of the law than respondents in other cities.
Feel This Way About a
Law in 1975 requiring
A Car Owner to Put
Emission Control on
Their Pre-1975 Model
Cars:
At Cost of $125 Per Car;
Very much in favor
Somewhat in favor
Somewhat against
Very much against
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
San Joaquin
Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley
mento ton field Fresno Cities
16
18
23
43
20
16
20
44
14
16
24
46
15
15
22
48
15
18
20
47
At Cost of $50 Per Car;
Very much in favor 41
Somewhat in favor 22
Somewhat against 13
Very much against 24
(Total Number of
Respondents) (384)
38
25
12
25
(139)
42
28
15
15
(65)
45
17
7
31
(44)
(66)
40
29
12
19
(175)
A-9
-------
b.
By Law Requiring Inspection of Equipment
Respondents were also asked how they would feel about a law requir-
ing periodic inspection of emission control systems, what they would consider
a reasonable cost for the inspection, and where the inspection should be made.
The majority of respondents in all cities were in favor of the law. However,
reaction was more favorable in Bakersfield (83%), and Fresno (88%) than in
the other three cities (72-74%).
Respondents in all cities would expect to pay a mean amount of at
least $7. 00 for inspection. Fresno respondents would expect to pay the
most ($9. 32).
In all cities, a city operated center was the least preferred of the
three inspection locations suggested. Preferences for the remaining two
locations were fairly equally divided, with the exception of Sacramento,
where respondents expressed substantial preference for state operated
centers.
Feel This Wav About Law
Requiring Inspection Of
Emission Control
Equipment:
Very much in favor
Somewhat in favor
Somewhat againsjt
Very much against
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities;
San
Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers-
cisco mento ton field
46 52
28 21
12 9
14 18
41
31
14
14
San JoaquirB
Valley
Fresno Cities
43
45
9
3
43
35
11
11
Would Pay This Mean
Amount for Inspection;
Would Prefer to Have
Car Inspected At;
State operated center
City operated center
Local service station/
garage
Other
7.67
41
11
42
6
JL
8.92
55
10
30
5
7.29
45
12
40
3
7.01
JL
40
12
46
2
35
17
40
8
8.01
40
14
41
5
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(384)
(139)
(65)
(44)
(66)
(175)
A-10
-------
3. Proposals to Control Auto Air Pollution
Respondents were asked to evaluate several proposals aimed at
reducing the amount of auto air pollution in their cities. Each proposal
was evaluated in terms of the following scale:
Very Acceptable (+2)
Somewhat Acceptable ( + 1)
Neither Acceptable or Unacceptable ( 0)
Somewhat Unacceptable (-1)
Very Unacceptable (-2)
A mean rating for each proposal was calculated using the weights
indicated above in the parentheses. A positive mean rating means the
proposal is acceptable. A negative rating indicated unacceptability of the
•proposal. A rating close to zero indicates indifference to the proposal.
Based on the mean ratings, in all five cities, the two most acceptable
proposals were to "create bus only and car pool only lanes on major thorough-
fares" and to "prohibit traffic and parking in central business districts".
The two least acceptable proposals were to "have a very high $200 registra-
tion fee per auto owned" and to "have tolls on exit ramps of major thorough-
fares".
It is worth noting that the highest rating received by any proposal in
any city was . 8 and the lowest in any city was -1.9. In short, none of the
proposals were rated as high as "somewhat acceptable" in any city, while
three of the proposals were rated lower than "somewhat unacceptable" in
all cities.
A-ll
-------
Gave These Mean
Respondents In These Cities:
Ratings To These
Proposals for
Reducing Auto Air
Pollution;
Gasoline rationing
$200 registration fee
for each auto
$200 registration fee for
2nd, 3rd, etc. , auto
Prohibit traffic /parking
in central business
districts
San
Fran-
cisco
-.9
-1.7
-.'8
•3
. j
Sacra-
mento
-1.0
-1.8
-1.0
7
. &>
Stock- Bakers-
ton field
-.9 -1.0
-1.8 -1.7
-1.0 -1.1
i i
San Joaquin
Valley
Fresno Cities
-.8 -.9
-1.9 -1.8
-.8 -1.0
- ? - 1
Tax on all day parking
in central business
districts
-.2
Tax on parking in central
business districts regard-
less of time parked -. 8
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
in times of heavy
traffic
Mandatory car pooling
Create "bus/car pool only"
lanes on major
thoroughfares
-1.4
-.6
-.3
-.9
-1.4
-.5
-.4
-1. 1
-.2
-.5
-.7 -1.0
-1.2
-.6
-1.2 -1.2
-.4
-.6
-.4
-.9
-1.
5
-1.
5
-1.
4
-1.
3
-1.
1
-1.
3
-1.2
-.5
.8
.6
.5
. 5
.4
.4
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(384)
(139)
(65)
(44) (66) (175)
A-12
-------
Respondents were also asked to record by letter which proposals
•would be the most acceptable and least acceptable to them. The following
two tables show the proportion of respondents selecting each proposal as
most/least acceptable. The tables mirror the mean ratings in pointing
out which two proposals are most acceptable. The two most unacceptable
proposals are the $200 registration fee for each auto (consistent with the
mean ratings), and gasoline rationing.
A-13
-------
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities;
Said These
Proposals Were
Most Acceptable;*
Gasoline rationing
$200 registration fee
for each auto
$200 registration fee
for 2nd, 3rd, etc. ,
auto
Prohibit traffic/parking
in central business
districts
Tax on all day parking
in central business
districts
Tax on parking in central
business districts regard-
less of time parked
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
in times of heavy traffic
Mandatory car pooling
Create "bus/car pool
only" lanes on major
thoroughfares
San Sacra- Bakers-
Francisco mento Stockton field
3s. -2L 2°- !L
1 3 10 12
1 1 5
8655
27 19 13 10
9 9 5 10
rd-
3422
1 - 32
c 1 1 5
10 15 18 12
44 51 39 46
San Joaquin
Valley
Fresno Cities
_%. JL
19 14
2
8 6
16 13
5 6
5 3
5 4
2
16 16
29 37
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(384)
(139)
(65)
(44)
(66)
(175)
Percentages add to over 100% due to multiple answers.
A-14
-------
Said These
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
San Joaquin
San Sacra- Bakers- Valley
Most Unacceptable:*
% %
Gasoline rationing
$200 registration fee
for each auto
29 30
% %
38 33
% %
.22 30
50 46
44 51
56 50
$200 registration fee
for 2nd, 3rd, etc. ,
auto 7
Prohibit traffic/parking
in central business
districts 2
Tax on all day parking in
central business
districts 4
Tax on parking in central
business districts regard-
less of time parked 5
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares 12
Tolls on exit ramps of
major thoroughfares
in times of heavy
traffic 8
Mandatory car pooling 11
Create "bus/car pool
only" lanes on major
thoroughfares 1
All 2
(Total Number of
Respondents)
14
7
6
2
3
11
3
11
3
2
(384) (139) (65)
* Percentages add to over 100% due to multiple answers.
A-15
(44)
5
11
(66)
3
10
1
1
(175)
-------
a. Proposals to Combat Gasoline Shortage
Respondents were also asked to rate various proposals for dealing
with the possible gasoline shortage facing the country. The scale used
was the same as on the previous table dealing with proposals to end
auto pollution, and the mean ratings were calculated in the same manner.
The most acceptable proposal was to limit fuel purchases to 90 per-
cent of current consumption. The levels of the ratings for this proposal
indicate indifference to it rather than a positive reaction.
The two least acceptable proposals, both of which received about
the same ratings in each city, were to double the price of gasoline, and
to impose an emission tax of $10 per thousand miles traveled per year.
A-16
-------
Gave This Mean
Rating to These
Proposals for Con-
serving Gasoline:
Limit Gasoline Pur-
chases to:
Respondents In These Cities;
San Sacra-
Francisco mento
90% of current usage
80% of current usage -. 5
2/3 of current usage -.8
Stockton
-.2
-1.0
San Joaquin
Bakers- Valley
field Fresno Cities
-.8
Emission Tax
@ $10/1000 mi.
@ $15/1000 mi.
Double Price of
Gasoline
-.8
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(384)
(139)
(65)
(44)
(66)
(175)
-!' Less than . 05.
A-17
-------
b.
Travelling to And From Work in a Car Pool
Respondents in all five cities were also asked how they would feel
about travelling to and from work in a. car pool and, if car pools became
necessary, how difficult or easy would it be for them to join or organize
one.
With the exception of Bakersfield, interest in car pools ranged
narrowly from 41% (San Francisco and Fresno) to 48% (Stockton). The
low level of interest in Bakersfield (31%) may be due in part to small
sample size and in part to the fact that more respondents in that city
are already in a car pool or do not travel to work by car.
Current car pool usage ranges from 3% in Fresno to 15% in Bakers-
field. Non-auto travel to and from work is also lowest in Fresno (11%)
and highest in Bakersfield (27%).
A majority of respondents felt getting into a car pool would be
difficult.
Said They Would
Be This Interested
In a Car Pool:
This Percent of Respondents in These Cities;
San
Fran- Sacra-
cisco men to
Stock-
ton
San Joaquin
Bakers- Valley
field Fresno Cities
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
Already in car pool
Do not travel by car
to and from work
Said Getting Into A
Car Pool Would Be:*
Difficult
Easy
(Total Number of
Respondents)
16
25
35
9
22
22
31
4
12
36
32
5
15
16
27
15
8
33
45
3
11
29
36
7
15
80
20
21
81
19
15
72
28
(384) (139) (65)
*Percentaged over respondents not presently in a car pool.
A-18
27
68
32
(44)
11
83
17
(66)
17
75
25
(175)
-------
4. Proposals to Reduce Traffic Congestion
One of the main causes of auto air pollution is traffic congestion and/
or stop and go driving. Respondents were asked to consider several pro-
posals aimed at reducing traffic congestion. Of the ten proposals considered,
respondents in all cities except Stockton and Bakersfield felt that improving
the timing of traffic signals would be the most effective method of reducing
traffic congestion. Respondents in Stockton felt that prohibition of parking,
loading, and unloading on busy streets and provision for pedestrian over
passes, would be somewhat more effective. Respondents in Bakersfield
felt that prohibiting turns at busy intersections during rush hours would be
most effective.
Widening major streets at intersections was judged least effective in
reducing traffic congestion in San Francisco, Sacramento, and Bakersfield.
In Fresno, establishment of reversible lanes was least effective, and in
Stockton, widening major streets at intersections and establishing reversible
lanes shared the "least effective" role.
In each city most proposals were rated very or somewhat effective by
seventy percent of the respondents. These generally high ratings mean that
all of the proposals are felt by the majority of respondents to have some
amount of effectiveness in reducing traffic congestion.
A-19
-------
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities;
Said These Proposals
Would Be "Very" or
"Somewhat" Effective
In Reducing.Traffic
Congestion;
San Sacra-
Francisco mento
Stockton
Bakers-
field
Prohibit parking, loading,
unloading on busy
streets 89
Increase number of
one-way streets 72
Establish reversible
lanes for rush hours 65
Prohibit turns at busy
intersections for rush
hours
Widen major streets
Widen major streets
at intersections
Provide pedestrian
over passes/under-
passes 86
Improve timing of traffic
signals
Increase number and
frequency of
traffic reports 70
Create "bus/car pool
only" lanes 81
78
76
49
84
75
81
87
91
70
66
78
76
60
83
86
76
77
San Joaquin
Valley
Fresno Cities
94
62
56
89
76
74
90
75
53
89
78
71
73
88
79
90
71
66.
86
80
80
89
92
74
72
(Total Number of
Respondents)
(384)
(139)
(65)
(44)
(66)
(175)
A-20
-------
One additional proposal for reducing traffic congestion was presented to
respondents. This proposal was to have working hours staggered throughout
the day for the purpose of reducing large traffic flows during specific times
of the day - rush hours.
The majority of respondents in all cities had favorable attitudes toward
this proposal. Favorable attitudes towards this proposal were highest in
Sacramento (78%). Of the remaining cities, .attitudes opposed to the propose
ranged from 18-20% with the exception of Bakersfield (27%) where the data
may reflect the small base.
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
«an
Felt This Way
San Joaquin
San Sacra- Bakers- Valley
A , , „. , Francisco mento Stockton field Fresno Cities
About Staggered ' ——— ——— ———— ————
Working Hours: % % % % % %
In favor of idea 68 78 53 57 68 60
Indifferent to idea 14 8 28 16 12 19
Opposed to idea 18 14 19 27 20 21
(Total Number of
Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175)
A-21
-------
A.3 Detailed Findings - Transportation Usage
1. Usage of Public Transportation
Respondents (female household heads) in all cities were requested
to obtain information from other household members in addition to them-
selves, regarding usage and reasons for usage of auto and public (bus,
subway, commuter train) transportation. One of the questions answered
by all household members (husband, wife, children over 16 years old)
pertained to usage of public transportation. The responses were recorded
on the following scale and weighted to obtain a mean travel frequency per
year:
Scale
Three or more times a week
One or two times a week
Once a month
Once every three months
Never
No household member
Households in San Francisco use public transportation far more
frequently than households in the other cities. An average household
in San Francisco uses public transportation 94 times per year. The
mean number of trips made per year in the other cities ranges from
10 (Stockton) to 28 (Bakersfield).
In all cities except Sacramento, children (over 16 years old) are
the most frequent users of public transportation. In San Francisco and
Fresno husbands and wives use public transportation about equally often;
in Sacramento and Stockton, wives are greater users, while the opposite
is true in Bakersfield.
Mean Number of Times Per Year In These Cities:
Public Transportation Is San San Joaquin
Used By These Household Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley
Members: cisco mento ton field Fresno Cities
Husband 28 3 ** 10 ** 3
Wife 24 6 2 5 ** 2
Children (over 16 years old) 42 6 8 13 20 14
Mean Total Per Year* -—_
Per Household | 94 | 15 10 28 20 19
(Total Number of
Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175)
* Wording of question is such that "times" is interpreted to be a round trip not
a one-way trip.
** Less than one trip. A-22
-------
2. Reasons for Usage of Public Transportation
Household members indicating usage of public transportation
were asked to rank in order of importance several prelisted reasons
for using public transportation. Their most important reason was
ranked "1", next important "2", etc. Means were calculated on the
basis of the numerical rank. The follwoing three tables show the
mean ranking given each reason by the various household members
(husband, wife, children over 16 years old). Eligible household mem-
bers who did not rank a reason were excluded from the mean scores.
Husbands and wives in San Francisco use public transportation
because it is cheaper and less congested. Children in that city use it
because it is cheaper, safer, and more available.
With the exception of San Francisco, sample sizes are too small
to permit drawing any definitive conclusions. However, the data suggest
that wives in the remaining cities use it because they have no drivers'
license and no car is available to them.
A-23
-------
Gave This Mean Rating
bo These Reasons for
Using Public Transpor-
tation:*
Husbands in These Cities:
Cheaper
Faster-
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
More relaxing
No drivers license
Car not available
(Total Number of
Eligible Husbands) (104) (7) (4)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
San
Fran-
cisco
TT|
4.2
3.9
4.6
2.7
4.7
5.6
3.4
7.9
4.7
San Joaquin
Sacra- Stock- Bakers-
mento ton field Fresno
| 2. 0 | - 7.0 5.0
3.0 - | 5. 5j 1.0
8. 0 - 6. 0" 2. 0
3.0 - 7.5 5.5
2.5 - 6.0 3.5
4.5 - 3.0 4.0
11.0 - 6.0 7.0
\ 1. 0 | - 7.0 3.5
11.0
4. 0 - 6. 0
Valley
Cities
6.0
4.0
4.0
6.5
4.8
3. 3
6.3
5.3
11. 0
6.0
(4)
(3)
(ID
Gave This Mean Rating
to These Reasons for
Using Public Transpor-
tation:*
Wives in These Cities:
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
More relaxing
No drivers license
Car not available
(Total Number of
Eligible Wives) (148) (23) (10)
* The higher the number, the less important the reason.
San
Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers-
cisco mento ton field
tm
4. 5
4.4
4.6
|3.2
4.0
4.4
3.7
4. 1
3. 3
1 2.6 [ 4. 5
5. 3 6. 0
5.0 9.0
5.0 6.0 2.0
4.8 6.7 3.0
4.6 3.7
2.7 5.7
4.7 9.0 4.0
| 2. 3 | 1.0 1.0
3.5 2.0 1.0
San Joaquin
Valley
Fresno Cities
5.7 5.0
7.0 6.4
5.3 7.2
5. 3 5. 1
5.0 5.5
3.0 3.4
2. 0 4. 2
3.3 5.9
1.0 1.0
2.0 1.8
(4)
(9)
(23)
A-24
-------
Gave This Mean Rating
Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities:
to These Reasons for
Using Public Transpor-
tation :*
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
More relaxing
No drivers license
Car not available
San San Joaquin
Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley
cisco mento ton field Fresno Cities
| 3. 1 | | 3. 0 | 3.0 - 4.7
4*2 8.0
4.2 6.5
I 3,5 | 6.5
5.0 6.0
1 3. 5 | 3.3 Q
6.0 6.0
4. 5 8. 0
3.8 1.0 2
3.6 3.5 Q
5. 3
7.0
4.7
7.7
751 rroi rrri
6.3
9.3
.0 - 4.0
.0 - 2.8
4.3
5. 3
7.0
4.7
7.7
nm
6.3
9.3
3.6
2.4 |
(Total Number of
Eligible Children)
(44)
(6)
(4)
(4)
(5)
(13)
"The higher the number, the less important the reason.
A-25
-------
3. Reasons For Using Auto Transportation
Household members were also asked to indicate their reasons for
traveling by auto in a similiar manner as they indicated their reasons
for traveling by public transportation. The following three tables show
the mean ranking given each reason by the various household member.
Once again, eligible household members who did not rank a reason were
excluded from the mean scores.
Three reasons clearly emerge as important reasons among family
members for using auto transportation. It is faster, more available,
and more flexible.
A-26
-------
Gave This Mean Rating
to These Reasons for
Using Auto Transpor-
tation:*
Husbands in These Cities:
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
Need car during day
(Total Number of
Eligible Husbands) (314) (115) (52)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
San
Fran-
cisco
5. 1
| 2. 6 I
4.4
6.4
5.8
2.4
2.4
3. 5
Sacra-
mento
5.7
| 3. 0 |
5. 1
6.7
5.9
2. 1
2. 5
3.5
Stock-
ton
4.9
3. 5
4.2
6.5
6. 1
1.7
3. 1
3.0
Bakers-
field
5.2
| 2. 8 |
4. 3
6.3
6.0
1.9
,2.7
4.9
San Joaquin
Valley
Fresno Cities
5.6
| 3. 0 |
4.7
6.7
5.7
2. 5
1.9
3.8
5.3
1 3.1
4.4
6.5
5.9
2. 1
2.5
3. 8
1
(41)
(53)
(146)
Gave This Mean Rating
to These Reasons for
Using Auto Transpor-
tation:*
Wives in These Cities:
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
Less congested
More available
More flexible
Need car during day
(Total Number of
Eligible Wives)
San
Fran-
cisco
5. 0
4.4
6.2
5.8
2.4
2. 5
3.8
San Joaquin
Sacra-
mento
5.6
4.9
6.7
6. 1
2.2
2.4
3.6
Stock-
ton
5.2
4. 3
5. 8
5.6
2.3
3. 0
4. 0
Bakers-
field
5. 5
4.8
6.4
6. 1
1.8
2.7
4.3
Fresno
5.4
4. 5
6.4
5.9
2.4
2. 1
3.2
Valley
Cities
5. 4
CUD
4. 5
6.2
5.9
2.2
2. 5
3.8
(350) (130)
(60)
(42)
(62)
(164)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
A-27
-------
Gave This Mean Rating
to These Reasons for San
Using Auto Transpor- Fran-
tation:* Cisco
Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities;
Sacra-
mento
San Joaquin
Bakers- Valley
field Fresno Cities
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable
Safer for passenger
5. 1
2. 3
^^^^MMI
4.4
6.6
5.4
2.7
••^M^BI
4.0
6. 8
6.6
3.3
4.8
5.8
2.5
3.0
4.0
6. 5
5.0
2.4
4.4
6.6
Less congested
More available
More flexible
Need car during day
5.7
2.0l
5.4
[JTT
2.9
4. 3
(Total Number of
Eligible Children
(89)
(42)
(23)
(14)
(20)
(57)
*The higher the number, the less important the reason.
A-28
-------
4. Proposals for Encouraging Use of Public Transportation
Household members were asked to rate various proposals designed
to encourage increased usage of public transportation facilities. Proposals
were rated in the same manner as were the reasons for traveling by auto
and public transportation. That is, the most effective proposal was rated
"1", the next "2", etc. Means were calculated for each proposal on the
basis of meaningful responses.
Household members in all five cities feel that more frequent service
would be one of the more effective ways of encouraging use of public trans-
portation.
All respondent groups in San Francisco, and children in Stockton
also rate lower fares as an effective proposal.
In the other cities, husbands and wives agree that more conven-
iently located stops would encourage use of public transportation, as
do children in Sacramento.
A-29
-------
Gave This Mean Rating
Husbands in These Cities:
to These Ways of San
Encouraging Use of Fran -
Public Transportation:* cisco
Cleaner /newer vehicles 5.4
Faster travel 4. 0
Air conditioned vehicles 6. 7
More frequent service 1 3. 0
Lower fares ; 3. 6
Parking facilities at
stops and stations 4. 5
Shelters against bad
weather 5. 9
Better security for
personal safety 5. 0
More conveniently located
stops /stations 3.7
San Joaquin
- Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley
mento ton field Fresno Cities
5.9 5.6
3.9 4.1
5.7 6.6
2. 5 j 2.7 ]
4. 8 4. 1
4.7 4.6
5.7 5.7
6.3 5.4
I 3.6 | | 3.9 1
5.8 5.
4.0 4.
5. 1 5.
3. 3 | 2.
4.2 4.
4.6 6.
6. 3 5.
6. 5 6.
3.91 13.
7 5.7
0 4. 0
8 5. 8
6 | 2.9
4 4. 3
4 5.2
2 5.7
3 6.1
TI rrn
(Total Number of
Eligible Husbands) (357) (128) (60) (43) (57) (160)
*The higher the number, the less effective the proposal.
Gave This Mean Rating Wives in These Cities:
to These Ways of San
Encouraging Use of Fran-
Public Transportation:* cisco
Cleaner /newer vehicles 5. 5
Faster travel 4. 4
Air conditioned vehicles 6. 7
More frequent service 2. 9
Lower fares 3. 4
San Joaquin
Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley
mento ton field Fresno Cities
5.8 5.7
4.4 4.7
5.7 6.4
4.5 4.4
5.8 5.
4. 8 4.
5.2 5.
3.2 | [17
4. 5 4.
9 5.8
3 4.6
2 5. 5
2 4.3
Parking facilities at stops
and stations
Shelters against bad
weather
Better security for
personal safety
More conveniently located
stops/stations
(Total Number of
Eligible Wives)
5.2
5. 5
4.5
3.9
4.8
5. 3
6. 0
WBM^H^M
3. 5
(382) (139)
4.8
5.2
5.5
3.9
MMHHMI
(65)
4.9
5.9
6. 1
•^MBMMl
3. 5
MMMMMBM
(43)
6.3
5.6
6.0
TT
^•^•^•MM
(65)
5.4
5.6
5.9
3.7 |
(173)
* The higher the number, the less effective the proposal.
A-30
-------
Gave This Mean Rating
Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities:
to These Ways of
Encouraging Use of
Public Transportation:
Cleaner/newer vehicles
Faster travel
Air conditioned vehicles
More frequent service
Lower fares
Parking facilities at
stops and stations
Shelters against bad
weather
Better security for
personal safety
More conveniently located
stops /stations
San
Fran-
cisco
5. 8
4. 1
6. 5
rrn
FTTl
6.4
5. 3
4.8
4. 0
Sacra-
mento
6. 1
5. 0
5.9
rm
4.0
6. 5
4.9
5.0
nm
Stock-
ton
6.3
3. 7
6. 8
rm
mn
6. 0
4.7
5. 0
4. 3
San Joaquin
Bakers- Valley
field Fresno Cities
5.8 4.3
I 4. 2 | | 2.3
3.7 4.9
I 3.2 | | 3.3
4.3 3.4
6.2 6.9
6.7 6.3
5.8 6.5
4.6 5.2
5. 5
3.2
5. 3
JTFI
3.6
6.4
5.7
5.8
4.7
(Total Number of Eligible
Children)
(198) (74)
(42)
(22)
(33)
(97)
* The higher the number, the less effective the proposal.
A-31
-------
5.
Disposal of Cars Owned
Respondents were asked if they would dispose of any of the cars
owned if better public transportation were available. Respondents in
San Francisco and Sacramento are more likely to dispose of a car or
cars than respondents in any of the other cities. Stockton respondents
are least likely to dispose of any cars.
The mean number of cars owned ranges narrowly from 1.6 -
to 1. 9.
In all cities the mean number of cars that would be disposed of
is about 1. 0.
When Asked If They
Would Dispose of Any
of Their Cars If Better
Public Transportation
Were Available Said:
This Percent of Respondents In These Cities:
San
Fran-
cisco
Sacra-
mento
San Joaquin
Bakers- Valley
field Fresno Cities
Yes
Maybe
No
No car owned
Mean Number of Cars
Owned
Mean Number of Cars
Disposed
11
18
68
3
1.6
1. 0
16 3
17 9
66 | 83 |
1 5
1.8 1.6
1.0 1. 0
7
1
16
7
5
2
1.9
1. 0
5
9
76
1
1
-
. 8
. 2
1
9
1
78
1
1
2
. 8
. 1
(Total Number of
Respondents
(384) (139)
(65)
(44)
(66)
(175)
A-32
------- |