AIR QUALITY IMPL ATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGEN JULY 1973 TRWk TRANSPORTATION* 'ENVIRONMENTAL 'OPERATIONS ------- 04120 AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT FOR CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS: SUMMARY REPORT JULY 1973 Contract No. 68-02-0048 Prepared by TRANSPORTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL OPERATIONS OF TRW, INC. One Space Park Redonco Beach, California for the Environmental Protection Agency ------- This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by TRW Transportation and Environmental Operations in fulfillment of Contract Number 68-02-0048. The contents of this report are reproduced herein as received from the contractor. The opinions, findings, and conclusions are those of TRW and not necessarily those of the Environmental Protection Agency. Mention of company or product names does not constitute endorsement by the Environmental Protection Agency. The results and conclusions developed herein are based, in part, on the limited nature of present Air Quality Data and methodology used in forecasting future air quality. Due to the short time schedule and limited budget assigned for carrying out this project, some of the political, institutional, legal and socio-economic implications of the proposed transportation control strategy have not been fully assessed. ------- FOREWORD This report summarizes the results of several in-depth studies of air pollution and its control in critical California air basins. These reports, which appear under separate cover, are entitled: t Air Quality Implementation Plan Development for Critical California Regions: San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR • Air Quality Implementation Plan Development for Critical California Regions: Sacramento Vailey~ Intrastate AQCR • Air Quality Implementation Plan Development for Critical California Regions: San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR The individual reports should be consulted for detailed documentation of the results presented forthwith. For purposes of brevity, the limitations of the analyses, analytical methodologies and working assumptions leading up to the results are similarly omitted in this summary. The purpose of this report is to provide a brief overview of the severity of air pollution within the regions studied and an analysis of what control measures appear to be necessary for attainment of established air quality goals. Each of the reports cited above is self-contained and the reader is certainly encouraged to refer to the individual reports for more details regarding any region(s) of interest. 111 ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 California and the Clean Air Act of 1970 - A Dilemma .... 2 1.2 Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations 3 1.3 Proposed Control Strategies 10 2.0 SUMMARY OF RESULTS 16 2.1 The San Francisco Bay Air Quality Control Region ...... 19 2.1.1 Regional Description ........ 19 2.1.2 Problem Definition 22 2.1.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectivness .... 26 2.2 The Sacramento Valley Air Quality Control Region 33 2.2.1 Regional Description 33 2.2.2 Problem Definition 37 2.2.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness . . 39 2.3 The San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Control Region 45 2.3.1 Regional Description 45 2.3.2 Problem Definition 49 2.3.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness . . 5Q 2.4 The Southeast Desert Air Quality Control Region . 72 2.4.1 The Transport Hypothesis 75 2.4.2 Geographical Pattern of Maximal Oxidant Time 77 2.4.3 Typical Wind Patterns 82 2.4.4 The Coachella Valley Air Quality Study by Pollution Research and Control Corporation 84 2.4.5 Conclusion 87 3.0 SUMMARY OF IMPACTS 88 3.1 Economic Impacts 88 3.2 Social Impacts 88 3.2.1 Stationary Source Measures and Vehicle-Oriented Mobile Source Measures 90 3.2.2 Impact on Mobility Patterns 91 3.2.2.1 Reducing Optional Trips 91 ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.0 (Continued) 3.2.3 Impact on Accessibility 93 3.2.4 Impact on Mode Choice Decisions 93 3.2.5 Summary of Social Impacts 94 3.3 Public Attitude Surveys 96 4.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION 100 4.1 Procedure and Time Schedule 100 4.2 Agency Involvement 104 5.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION 107 5.1 Phase I Measures 107 5.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 107 5.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures 108 5.2 Phase II Measures 110 5.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 110 5.2.2 Mobile Source Control Measures Ill APPENDIX A -- Public Attitude Survey A-l A.I The Questionaire A-3 A.2 Detailed Findings - Auto Air Pollution A-8 A.3 Detailed Findings - Transportation Usage A-22 ------- LIST OF FIGURES Page 2-1 San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR 20 2-2 Key Access Constraints Within the Bay Area 23 2-3 Trend of Average High-Hour Oxident Concentrations 25 2-4 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Francisco . . 27 Bay Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons 2-5 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Francisco . . 28 Bay Area - Carbon Monoxide 2-6 Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR 34 2-7 Population Density by Zone, Sacramento Regional Area 36 2-8 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento .... 40 Regional Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons 2-9 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento .... 41 Regional Area - Carbon Monoxide 2-10 San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR 47 2-11 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin ... 52 County - Reactive Hydrocarbons 2-12 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin ... 53 County - Carbon Monoxide 2-13 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno 59 County - Reactive Hydrocarbons 2-14 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno 60 County - Carbon Monoxide 2-15 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern 66 County - Reactive Hydrocarbons 2-16 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern 67 County - Carbon Monoxide 2-17 Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR 73 2-18 Geographical Distribution of Average Time of Oxidant Peak ... 78 2-19 Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the .... 79 Upper Southeast Desert and for Downtown Los.Angeles 2-20 Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the .... 81 Lower Southeast Desert and for Downtown Los Angeles 2-21 Air Flow Patterns - South Coast Air Basin 83 (October 1200-1800 PST) 2-22 Trajectories of Air Arriving at 2000 and 2100 PST 86 July 27, 1970 ------- LIST OF TABLES Page 2-1 BASE YEAR, ROLLBACK, AND ALLOWED EMISSIONS FOR CRITICAL 17 CALIFORNIA REGIONS 2-2 SUMMARY OF PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGIES 18 2-3 POPULATION AND LAND AREA, SANFRANCISCO BAY AREA AIR BASIN .... 21 2-4 AIR POLLUTION IN THE BAY AREA (1971-1972) 24 2-5 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 29 1971,1975,1977,1980 2-6 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR EMISSION INVENTORY 30 AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES 2-7 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 31 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (.1975-1980) 2-8 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 32 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) 2-9 SUMMARY OF AIR QUALITY VIOLATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY . 38 AIR BASIN (1970-1972) 2-10 ANNUAL N02 CONCENTRATIONS IN SACRAMENTO COUNTY 39 2-11 SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 42 1972, 1975, 1977, 1980 2-12 SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA EMISSION INVENT 43 AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES 2-13 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES 44 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS £1975-1980) 2-14 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES 45 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) 2-15 SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 54 1971, 1975, 1977, 1980 2-16 SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I 55 CONTROL MEASURES 2-17 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 56 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) 2-18 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES-- . . . 57 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) vm ------- LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Page 2-19 FRESNO COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 61 1970, 1975, 1977, 1980 2-20 FRESNO COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I 62 CONTROL MEASURES 2-21 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES- 63 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980.) 2-22 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES- . .' 64 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) 2-23 KERN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY 68 1971, 1975, 1977, 1980 2-24 KERN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I 69 CONTROL MEASURES 2-25 REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES— 70 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) 2-26 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES- 71 PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) 2-27 AIR QUALITY LEVELS MONITORED IN THE SOUTHEAST DESERT AQCR ... 74 (1970-1971) 2-28 PRINCIPAL AIR QUALITY MONITORING STATIONS 74 SOUTHEAST DESERT AQCR 2-29 COMPARATIVE STATISTICS FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND ........ 76 SOUTHEAST DESERT AIR BASINS (1970) 3-1 ESTIMATED UNIT COSTS OF CONTROL MEASURES 88 3-2 ESTIMATED REGIONAL COSTS FOR EACH MEASURE 89 3-3 SUMMARY OF SOCIAL IMPACTS . 95 4-1 PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIME SCHEDULE 101 4-2 AGENCY RESPONSIBILITY FOR CONTROL MEASURE IMPLEMENTATION 1Q5 ix ------- 1.0 INTRODUCTION In response to the requirements of the Clean Air Act of 1970 , all states are to submit implementation plans to the Environmental Protection Agency, describing how the promulgated National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) are to be achieved within their states by 1975, or, at the latest, 1977. For certain critical Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR's), the development of definitive transportation control strategies has been required to demonstrate attainment of the air quality standards by the required dates. In an attempt to assist the states engaged in these planning activities, the EPA Office of Land Use Planning has funded a series of transportation control studies for the major metropolitan areas with acute air pollution problems (14 Cities Study). See, for example, Transportation Controls to Reduce Motor Vehicle Emissions in Major Metropolitan Areas prepared by GCA Corporation (Technology Division) and TRW, Inc. (Transportation and Environmental Operations) for a summary of the results of these studies. In California, where air pollution is a problem in numerous AQCR's, only the Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate AQCR (South Coast Air Basin) was examined in some detail in the 14 Cities Study (Transportation Control Strategy Development for the Metropolitan Los Angeles Region) prepared by Transportation and Environmental Operations of TRW, Inc. In an extension of the work performed in the 14 Cities Study and, specifically, the Los Angeles study, it was necessary for the EPA to evaluate the severity of air pollution in other California AQCR's and, if warranted, to develop transportation control strategies for these areas as well. This report summarizes the results of control strategies developed for the critical California AQCR's listed: • San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR • Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR • San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR Air Amendments of 1970 - P.L.91-604 (December 31, 1970) ------- In addition, a brief study of air pollution transport into the Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR is presented. It is generally conceded that air pollution into the desert areas east (i.e. downwind) of the Los Angeles region is mainly due to transport of the pollution from the South Coast Air Basin. The analysis conducted concurs with this viewpoint and presents several sets of data to support the hypothesis. Another region in California which experiences severe air pollution is the San Diego Intrastate AQCR. At the time of this study, this region was under analysis elsewhere. Consequently, no mention of controls needed for this area are included in this report. 1.1 California and The Clean Air Act of 1970 - A Dilemma The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is directly responsible for coordinating all air pollution control activities within the sitate. This has entailed cooperation of local air pollution control agencies, the state, and the Federal government -- primarily the Environmental Protection Agency. Under California law, local air pollution control districts have the main responsibility for stationary source pollution control while the CARB and EPA share the responsibility for motor vehicle emission control. Overall, the CARB has been, and continues to be, a leader in the field of air pollution control. On January 30, 1972, the CARB submitted to EPA a comprehensive implementation plan for achieving the NAAQS in California as required by law. Due to certain inadequacies of the plan, revisions were requested to be resubmitted with more substantial technical support by early 1973. The acceptability of the revised state implementation plans wi.ll be more critically evaluated than the original plans, due largely to the decision of the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in NRDC v. EPA, Case No. 72-1522 (January 31, 1973). This decision holds that an adopted state implementation plan must contain measures which, if implemented, would achieve the air quality standards by May 31, 1975. The question of whether or not two year extensions will be granted will be more strictly interpreted and based in part on a more detailed justification. ------- A basic requirement for any extension is that a source(s) cannot meet the emission limitation needed to reach the standard within three years because of the absence of technology. State requests for extension must clearly demonstrate that technology is not or will not be available. They must prove either that there are no alternatives or that of possible alternatives under consideration, none is realistically feasible. Should the above requirement for an extension be satisfied, the state must also have considered and applied as part of its plan reasonably available alternative means of attaining the standard, and justifiable con- clusions why it cannot be done in three years. This means that in addition to providing that specific sources for which exemptions are being sought cannot comply by 1975, the state must also show that assuming noncompliance by these sources, there is no other regulatory strategy which would allow attainment of the standard. It becomes clear from the above that the interpretation of what constitutes an acceptable plan has changed dramatically since the reviews of 1972. Herein lies the dilemma which several regions face in California. The probability of areas in California with acute air pollution attaining the air quality standards by 1975 or even 1977 appears to be small. Very simply, numerous measures were evaluated for their effectiveness, implementability, and impact on the region. Control schemes which appear to be implementable were largely ineffective or only moderately effective at reducing air pollution. More effective measures, however, were those which appeared least likely to be implemented because of the adverse effect associated with them. A variety of issues -- technical, legal, institutional, and socio-economic -- remain to be addressed in the short terra regarding the optimal air pollution control strategy for each of the regions. 1.2 Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations The following summarize the major findings, conclusions, and recommendations that have emerged as a result of these studies. While there are encouraging signs that air pollution control efforts are significantly improving air quality in critical California regions, there is also concern that the pace with which the air quality is being improved is very slow. This is especially so given the tight time constraints ------- mandated by the Clean Air Act of 1970. Serious doubts exist regarding the ability of large urban systems to make the necessary adjustments to meet the promulgated air quality standards. It is clear that technological solutions are insufficient, in and of themselves, to bring about the desired cleanup within this decade. Only a significant change in lifestyles (requiring individual sacrifices), coupled with technological remedies, offer hope toward a rapid improvement in air quality and assurance that these levels will be maintained. Findings: t Recent air quality data for photochemical oxidants indicate that oxidant concentrations are significantly above the National Ambient Air Quality Standard in all of the regions examined. Violations of the oxidant standard are both widespread and frequent, especially during the summer months. Photochemical oxidants continue to be the major air pollution problem in the regions studied -- San Francisco, Sacramento, San Joaquin Valley, and Southeast Desert. It is unlikely in the foreseeable future that attainment of this NAAQS will not be the limiting constraint for the region's ability to achieve all of the NAAQS. Air quality trends have shown significant improvements at some monitoring stations, with a marked worsening of air quality at other stations. Overall, there is justifiable concern over the present rate of air quality improvements witnessed in various regions. • The topography and climate of critical California regions are conducive to the formation and accumu- lation of high oxidant levels. Each of the critical California regions studied exhibited certain geographical and meteorological characteristics which contribute directly to the severe air quality levels observed. Generally, temperature inver- sions accompanied by low wind speeds are typical; valley regions which serve to funnel and concentrate pollutants are also commonplace. Finally, the warm climate with intense solar radiation provides all the necessary energy to initiate the photochemical reactions leading to oxidant formation. ------- • Mobile source emissions are and will continue to be the major contributors to the air pollution problem; due to projected controls, however, their relative contribution to the problem is slowly decreasing. Presently, mobile source emissions, primarily from light-duty vehicles, are the major source of emissions in the regions studied. However, with currently projected Federal and state motor vehicle control programs, the relative percentage contribution of these sources decreases. Even with a host of control devices, though, light duty vehicles will continue to be a large fraction of all emissions because of the sheer number of vehicles i nvolved. • Aircraft, motorcycle, and heavy duty vehicle emissions are significant, minor sources of pollution; these sources become more significant as the target dates for compliance to air quality standards near. Presently, minor sources of air pollution which are largely uncontrolled include aircraft, motorcycles, heavy duty gasoline and diesel powered vehicles. As more and more sources are tightly controlled, the emissions from these uncontrolled sources become more important. By 1975-77, these sources will be very significant in the overall emission inventories. Growth rates for certain uncontrolled sources, e.g. motorcycles, aircraft, are projected to be fairly rapid in the short term, placing additional importance on these emissions. t Existing and projected transit services can handle modest increases in ridership over the short term. In their present modes of operation, efficient transit services must operate at near capacity during peak periods. To do otherwise, would probably mean operating losses. Therefore, most transit services can only handle modest increases in ridership in the near term. Larger increases in ridership would necessitate acquiring additional buses or transit service capability. Both require large sums of additional funding which may or may not be available. • The present life styles of the San Francisco, Sacramento Valley, and San Joaquin Valley regions appear incompatible with the established air quality ------- goals; any foreseeable solution (if it exists), will have a major impact on the socio-economic fiber of the regions. With the exception of certain areas in the San Francisco region (e.g. downtown, Oakland), all of the areas studied are largely automobile dependent for satisfying personal transportation needs. This is largely due to the existing land use patterns -- typically sprawling low-density development -- which have developed in the regions. The development of transportation systems dependent on an extensive grid of highways has further accentuated this dependence on private auto use. Finally, increased affluence and the status accompanying automobile ownership have also directly contributed to the almost complete reliance on autos for all trip making purposes. These contributing factors — land use patterns, transportation system development, and affluence, all represent the gradual evolution of present life styles and patterns. Air quality objectives are largely incompatible with these life styles since they require substantial changes in developed social patterns. Solutions alleviating the severe pollution experienced will result in impacts on the regions' residents. • A multiplicity of agencies and organizations would be involved and/or affected by attempts to implement certain control measures; it appears that funding and institutional constraints will be very significant for many of the measures evaluated. The control measures being contemplated for implementation will directly or indirectly affect many local, regional, state, and Federal agencies. In fact, successful implementation of these measures will be dependent on close cooperation and assistance from many of these groups. It is uncertain at this time what problems are likely to be encountered in soliciting such aid. For certain measures, additional funds not presently designated will be required to implement some of the more costly controls. Numerous public and private interest groups are also likely to be affected by the proposed controls. In an attempt to anticipate and minimize institutional constraints, these groups should be involved in the review and development of proposed control strategies. 6 ------- • The required enabling legislation to allow for several high priority control measures (e.g. mandatory inspection/maintenance and catalytic converter retrofit) will be difficult to obtain during the 1973 legislative session. One of the most formidable obstacles to implementing various control measures in California has been the passage of key legislation. For years, despite the severity of air pollution and the public attention devoted to it, legislation to enable instituting important control measures has been consistently and repeatedly defeated. Again, this year, several bills which would lead to additional air pollution control have been introduced for consideration. As in years past, it appears most of the bills will die in various committees for a variety of reasons -- technical, economic, political. Conclusions: • Presently planned stationary and mobile source controls are inadequate for achieving the ambient air quality goals in the San Francisco, Sacramento, and San Joaquin Valley regions; therefore, additional control measures are clearly indicated. The ongoing and proposed Federal and state motor vehicle control programs will result in substantial emission reductions both over the long and short terms. In addition, tightening of present controls on stationary sources will result in significant emission reductions. However, due to the severity of air pollution in the critical California regions studied, more controls are necessary to attain the NAAQS. Of the regions plagued with severe air pollution, San Francisco appears to require the most extensive set of control measures. • In 1977, attainment of the air quality standards through additional light duty vehicle controls would almost require their complete elimination. Currently, light duty motor vehicles are the largest single con- tributor to the overall pollution problem. By 1977, with anticipated new and used car controls, the individual vehicular emissions will have declined markedly. Although these emissions will still be very important, the severe air pollution control requirements necessitate additional ------- controls which in all probability cannot be met realistically by further control of light duty vehicles alone. t Controls on motorcycles, aircraft, and heavy duty vehicles could result in significant reductions by 1975-77. As present and projected controls take their full effect, minor sources such as motorcycles, aircraft, and heavy duty vehicles, which are largely uncontrolled, become important sources of pollution. A variety of factors have contributed to these categories remaining relatively uncontrolled, ranging from technological and economic considerations to political and institutional constraints. In view of the tight controls being imposed on all other categories, equity considerations alone require that controls for these sources be imposed where possible in the near future. • Annual inspection/maintenance is necessary to obtain the full benefit of Federal and state vehicle emission control programs. Numerous studies have indicated the emission reduction potential of a mandatory inspection/maintenance program. It will be more important as vehicle emission control systems become more complex and prone to failure. Several options are available for implementation with the major obstacle presently being obtaining the required enabling legislation to institute such a program. Repeated attempts have been made to require such a program in critical California areas; to date, all have failed. The chances for passage of an inspection/maintenance law in this legislative session appear promising but if passed, only the South Coast Air Basin (i.e., Los Angeles region) will be affected. • Catalytic converter retrofits offer major emission reduction potential. However, questions regarding the availability of lead free fuel and the wide- spread applicability of the devices remain unanswered. It appears that most automobile manufacturers will be relying heavily on oxidizing catalytic converters for meeting the stringent 1975-76 new car exhaust standards. Concurrently, these devices have been widely studied for use as a retrofit device on used cars. Preliminary data show large emission reductions are possible with these retrofits. 8 ------- In addition to resolving some technical questions concerning the devices, the relatively high cost of catalytic converters poses implementation obstacles. • Presently planned transportation improvement programs will result in very minor air quality improvements. Traditionally, transportation system improvements have centered on increasing speed, mobility, and access. As a result, many of these efforts have resulted in increasing VMT. While reducing carbon monoxide emissions under certain conditions (e.g. congested CBD's), these programs do not alleviate photochemical oxidant problems. If anything, increased VMT generally results in an aggravated oxidant problem. • Control measures directed at reducing regional VMT appear to offer only modest gains towards the air quality objectives. Evaluation of numerous control measures for reducing VMT revealed several key points: a) motorists tend to show a high resistance to disincentives to driving the car, whether they be in the form of time or monetary penalties or outright restrictions, and b) areas presently well served by transit already have high ridership levels indicating only modest VMT reductions are possible by even higher transit patronage. • VMT reduction measures which offer the greatest potential generally affect areas utilizing public transit the most; therefore, issues of equity are raised. As stated above, incentives to discourage widespread auto usage are generally most effective in areas which are well served by public transit. These areas are also the same regions which experience the highest levels of transit usage. Conversely, areas which are spread out and predominantly automobile dependent show the least response to incentives encouraging other modes of transportation. This is, of course, directly related to readily available alternative modes of transportation. Therefore, as measures are developed for reducing VMT, it is necessary to be aware of the inequities which result from placing inordinate VMT reduction burdens on areas utilizing public transit the most. It is these considerations which point out the need for better land use controls. 9 ------- Recommendations: (See Section 1.3) It is recommended that the Phase I control measures be implemented as quickly as possible. The continuation of the state's ongoing motor vehicle control program plus these measures should result in a significant improvement of the air quality by 1975-77. The final decision regarding the implementation of the Phase II measures should be deferred until a careful analysis is made of the impact of such measures upon the residents of the region. Many issues noted in the report remain to be resolved. One critical issue which must be resolved is the short term requirements being imposed by the Clean Air Act of 1970. If the San Francisco, Sacramento, and San Joaquin Valley regions can be directed toward less automobile dependence through long range planning in land use and trans- portation, every effort should be made to allow for this smooth transition. This implies that short term controls which may be counterproductive to long range goals should be carefully weighed before full implementation. 1.3 Proposed Control Strategies The following measures comprise control methods evaluated and deemed applicable to some or all of the regions analyzed in the study. The proposed control strategies fully recognize inadequacies in the data analyzed; the information presented represents as accurate a portrayal as possible of the air pollution situation given the limits and constraints imposed upon the study. Directionally, the implementation of many or all of the controls will result in significantly improved air quality. In a technical sense, the proposed plan should allow for attainment of the air quality standards by the 1977 target date. In general, implementation of Phase I measures can be justified on the basis of air quality improvements at reasonable costs and with minor social impacts. The impact of implementing the Phase II control measures is staggering, both in terms of economic costs and societal disruptions which would result from their institution. Also, it is not clear at this time whether some of these measures are technologically feasible and/or effective. Further evaluation and testing is clearly warranted for these measures before they can be advocated on a wide-spread basis. 10 ------- The necessity for Phase II control measures results from insufficient emission reductions being demonstrably achieved from the Phase I measures. The choice of which additional controls will actually be implemented remains to be decided. The measures listed in this analysis were chosen somewhat arbitrarily and are used more for illustrative purposes. They are intended to indicate the severity of additional controls which appear to be necessary to achieve the NAAQS. Other measures could easily have been considered. To some extent, Phase II control measures were aimed at controlling heretofore uncontrolled sources, e.g. motorcycles, heavy duty vehicles. The difficulty of achieving additional controls after the Phase I measures can be briefly summarized: • By 1975-77, no single source category predominates in the emission inventory; that is, all categories contribute a little to the overall problem. • Major pollution sources, e.g. stationary sources, light duty vehicles, will be stringently controlled by 1975-77, and additional controls on these sources will be difficult to achieve. t Minor pollution sources, e.g. motorcycles, heavy duty vehicles, although uncontrolled, continue to be a relatively small contributor to the problem; therefore, controls on these categories will have only minor impact. The control measures outlined are not new and have been proposed elsewhere; no "magic" solution was found and only incremental improvements can be expected from each control. Over the short term, large emission reductions will result from presently planned programs at all levels of government -- Federal, state, and local. By the years 1975-77, the remaining uncontrolled emissions will come from many sources, the majority of which are controlled. At this point in time, incremental air quality improvements become more difficult, expensive, disruptive, and publicly unacceptable. However, the severity of the air pollution left few alternatives for measures which would be adequate to accomplish the program requirements. 11 ------- Phase I Measures (Recommended): 1. Gasoline Evaporative Loss Controls - It is evident that as exhaust hydrocarbon emissions are more stringently controlled, the percentage contribution of hydrocarbon emissions from evaporative losses due to normal gasoline handling and transfer operations will increase signifi- cantly. Therefore, it is recommended that controls be required to either prevent or capture these vapor losses before escaping to the atmosphere. Control systems for certain transfer operations are presently available and should be installed as quickly as possible — bulk terminals, under- ground storage tanks. 2. Organic Surface Coating Substitution - Spurred in part by their contribution to the air pollution problem, the paint and varnish industry has for some time been engaged in research and development of less pollut- ing surface coating formulations. Examples of new formulations entering these markets are water-based or high solids content products. It has been estimated by representatives in the industry that significant inroads can be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute less reactive surface coatings for certain applications. 3. Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - Certain large dry cleaning plants continue to use reactive petroleum solvents in their normal operations. In these plants, it is possible to install activated carbon adsorption systems to control solvent vapors. 4. Degreaser Substitution - In areas with acute air pollution, substi- tution of less reactive solvents for presently used degreaser solvents is a control measure which can readily be implemented. 5. Burning Regulation - Both current and proposed California Air Resources Board regulations for backyard, agricultural, and lumber industry incineration practices are aimed at either restricting incineration or requiring more efficient burning practices. It is estimated that such regulation will result in significant reductions in emissions in 1975 and 1977. 6. Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - In an attempt to derive the full benefit from both new and used car emission controls, it is recommended that a mandatory annual inspection/maintenance program be established. Initially, to minimize many of the administrative and technical problems 12 ------- associated with instituting such a program, it is recommended that an idle emissions test only be required at the state owned and operated test facilities. After the program has been operative for several years and most of the administrative details adequately worked out, it is recommended that a loaded emissions testing program be instituted by upgrading the testing facilities with the necessary additional equipment and personnel. 7. Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - The California Air Resources Board has been and is currently evaluating catalytic converters as a retrofit for pre-1974 vehicles. Preliminary data indicate that large emission reductions are possible with these devices. The CARS has proposed wide- spread use of this retrofit as a measure for meeting the NAAQS, even though questions relating to the availability of lead free fuel and the overall applicability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles remain unresolved. Catalysts developed to date require the use of lead-free gasoline to prevent poisoning of the catalytic element. It remains to be seen what percentage of the older vehicles can operate satisfactorily on lead-free gasoline. 8. Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - The California Air Resources Board has accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon and oxides of nitrogen emissions from 1955-1965 vehicles. These devices have thus far been required-only in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins. The devices are essentially a vacuum spark advance disconnect (VSAD) with a thermal override switch to prevent overheating, or an electronic ignition system. 9. Aircraft Emission Controls - Current industry attempts to reduce smoke and particulate emissions from certain aircraft classes will also result in reductions of other air pollutants. These reductions have been estimated and incorporated into the aircraft emission inventory baseline. In addition, it appears that additional reductions can be achieved by modifying presently practiced ground operation procedures. This control is most applicable to major airport activity centers for which it is proposed. 10. Mass Transit - The level of mass transit available presently is totally inadequate to handle any substantial increases in ridership. Improving mass transit both in terms of frequency and efficiency of 13 ------- service and breadth of coverage in areas served, is a necessary first step to attract additional riders. It is also needed for making any measures which discourage private auto use more effective. Finally, should the Phase II measures be implemented, it is imperative as an alternative mode of transportation. A much closer examination should be given to establishing express bus and carpool lanes on certain freeways. Park-and-ride facilities, as well as bicycling, should be encouraged in more areas of the basin. Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted): 1. Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls - Application of the Phase I control measures on organic solvent uses will result in significant hydrocarbon emission reductions. However, if warranted, it appears that additional reductions may be achievable. These additional reductions will be increasingly difficult to obtain since the remaining emissions are either under tight control already, or the sources are very minor and diffuse, making them difficult to bring under control. Examples of this latter category are organic solvent uses in printing operations, pharmaceu- tical uses, insecticide/pesticide applications, rubber tire manufacturing, plastic and putty manufacturing, etc. Individually, the sources are minor; in their composite they are presently a significant uncontrolled source category. As an alternative, it is certainly recommended that a closer examination be made of these minor polluters. 2. Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - As shown previously, uncontrolled motorcycle emissions are projected to be among the highest of any motor vehicle type on a grams per mile basis. Their overall contribution to the pollution problem has been minor due to the relatively small number of vehicles and annual mileages accumulated. However, as the number of motorcycles increases (uncontrolled) and as more controls are imposed on light and heavy duty vehicles, their emission contribution will become significant. Two-stroke motorcycles, especially, are notoriously high emitters. In view of the projected importance of this source category, a ban on motorcycles during the summer months when smog is most intense, is a possible control measure. Part of the rationale for this control is that motorcycles are used primarily for recreational purposes, rather than for essential trip-making. ?4 ------- 3. Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance, Catalytic Converter and Evaporative Retrofit - For essentially the same reasons outlined under light duty vehicles, mandatory inspection/maintenance for heavy duty vehicles can be an effective control measure. Limited test data is avail- able and has demonstrated its feasibility and effectiveness as a control measure. Heavy Duty Catalytic Converter and Evaporative Retrofit - Again, a limited amount of data exists demonstrating the effectiveness and feasibility of heavy duty catalytic converter and evaporative retrofits as potential control measures. More extensive field testing is necessary, however, before widespread implementation of these measures can be warranted. 4. Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit - Still another retrofit being considered for light duty vehicles (pre-1970) is an evaporative control device. The CARB is currently investigating the feasibility of this type of device and if demonstrated effective, they may advocate its use. Others have pointed to the need for such controls but actual working prototypes and field testing data are limited at this time. The technical obstacles appear to be impeding widespread application of this control measure. Also, since the device is to be used on pre-1970 vehicles, its effectiveness decreases with time due to normal attrition of vehicles which can be retrofitted with such devices. 5. VMT Reduction through Gasoline Rationing - As a last resort, or after implementation of all Phase I measures, additional reductions can be achieved by a program to reduce vehicle miles travelled (VMT) through gasoline rationing. In light of recent publicity declaring gasoline shortages and/or the energy crises, the public appears to be ready to accept a modest level of fuel rationing. Rationing should be viewed strictly as an interim control to achieve modest reductions. Attempts to impose large scale rationing upon the public will result in numerous undesirable consequences. The effectiveness of gasoline rationing decreases as vehicular exhaust emission characteristics decrease. In fact, if massive rationing is contemplated, the value of extensive retrofit programs becomes somewhat questionable. 15 ------- 2.0 SUMMARY OF RESULTS This chapter summarizes the impacts of the proposed control strategies for the San Francisco, Sacramento, and San Joaquin Valley regions. In San Francisco, the control strategy is to be applied over the entire Air Quality Control Region, as designated by the California Air Resources Board. In the Sacramento Valley, the control measures are recommended for a five county sub-regional portion of the air basin. Similarly in the San Joaquin Valley, control strategies were developed for only portions of the basin, namely, Kern, Fresno, and San Joaquin counties. Table 2.1 shows the data used to determine the required emission reduction for each area, based on a straight percentage rollback technique. The base year listed is the year in which the highest pollutant measurement during or after 1970 was recorded. Table 2-2 summarizes the control measures assessed during the study for each of the regions examined. Although not readily apparent from the table, there are significant differences in each individual region's current control programs. For example, San Francisco has an existing set of regulations for control of organic solvent usage (i.e. similar to Los Angeles County's "Rule 66"). Counties in the San Joaquin Valley are just now in the process of imple- menting similar regulations (due to take effect beginning January, 1974). Similarly, certain motor vehicle retrofit programs which are in effect or due to be in effect for various California air basins have different time schedules for implementation. This was done to allow for trial programs in the most acutely polluted regions first in order to ensure the effective- ness and workability of the programs (e.g. 1966-70 retrofit and 1955-65 retrofit programs). 16 ------- TABLE 2-1. BASE YEAR, ROLLBACK REQUIRED, AND ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS FOR CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS Base Region Year San Francisco 1971 Bay AQCR Sacramento 1972 Regional Area (5 Counties) Kern 1971 County Fresno 1970 County San Joaquin 1971 County Air Quality In Base Year Maximum Maximum '8-Hour One-Hour Carbon Oxidant Monoxide (ppm) (ppm) .36 17 .28 10 .22 14 .21 11 .20 17 Federal Standards Maximum One-Hour Oxidant (ppm) .08 .08 .08 .08 .08 Maximum 8-Hour Carbon Monoxide (ppm) 9 9 9 9 9 Rollback Required From Base Year Reactive Hydro- Carbons 78% 71* 64% 62% 60% Carbon Monoxide 47% 10% 36% 18% 47% Base Year Emissions Reactive Hydro- Car bo Carbons Monox 567 2573 119 690 .Allowable Emissions (tons/day) Reactive n Hydro- ide Carbons 125 34.5 47.5 383 17.1 52.2 331 19.8 38.9 213 15.6 Carbon Monoxide 1364 621 245 271 113 ------- TABLE 2-2. SUMMARY OF PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGIES Control Measure San Phase I Measures (Recommended) Gasoline marketing controls Organic surface coating substitution Dry cleaning vapor control Degreaser substitution Burning regulations Aircraft controls Inspection/maintenance Catalytic converter retrofit 1966-70 retrofit Mass transit improvements Phase II Measures (If demonstrably warranted) Additional organic solvent use controls Motorcycle ban during smog season Heavy-duty vehicle I/M and retrofits Light-duty vehicle evap. retrofit Gasoline rationing Francisco X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Sacramento X X X X X X X X X X X X X X San Joaquin X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 18 ------- 2.1 San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR The San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR, also known as the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin, consists of all of seven counties — namely, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Napa -- and portions of two others — southwestern Solano and southern Sonoma. 2.1.1 Regional Description Topographically, it resembles a shallow bowl with a low central bay area, rimlike mountains, and connecting valleys. The region covers more than 5,000 square miles and includes some 4.6 million people and 2.7 million motor vehicles. Figure 2-1 presents a map of the region and illustrates its location within California. Table 2-3 and Figure 2-1 illustrate the vast differences in intensity of human activity over the nine county region. San Francisco County holds more than 15 percent of the region's population in less than one percent of its land area, while included portions of Napa, Sonoma and Solano Counties together hold less than nine percent of the region's population in 32 per- cent of its land area. A narrow bayside plain extends for a distance of 100 miles along the central and southern portions of the Bay, containing almost uninterrupted urban development. This strip, comprising only some ten percent of the region's land area, holds 80 percent of the regional population and some 90 percent of its employment. The lineal pattern of development has helped maintain a strong regional focus on the San Francisco CBD with a surrounding concentration of higher density develop- ment in the remainder of San Francisco, Daly City, and older low-lying sections of Oakland and Berkeley. The remainder of the Bay Area is of lower density, and highly auto-oriented, not unlike development in other cities in the Western United States. In 1980 about three-quarters of Bay Area residents are expected to live in what the Bay Area Transportation Study termed low density areas -- zones with less than ten dwelling units per net residential area. 19 ------- Regional Focus - San Francisco CBD Location Of Basin SantaJLosa Higher Density -- San Francisco, Daly City, Berkeley, Oakland Lower Density — Remainder Urban Area Steep Topography SAN FRANCIS Source: Association of Bay Area Governments Figure 2-1 San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR 20 ------- TABLE 2-3. POPULATION AND LAND AREA SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AIR BASIN County ATameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma County's Population In Basin - 1970 1,063,800 558,100 203,300 79,400 699,200 556,000 1,070,000 124,500 178,900 4,533,200 % of Basin's Population 23.5 12.3 44.5 1.8 15.4 12.3 23.6 2.7 3.9 100.0 % of County's Population In Basin 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 79. 87.2 Area in 9 Basin (Mr) 733 733 520 787 45 447 1300 358 620 5,543 % of Basin's Land Area 13.2 13.2 9.4 14.2 0.8 8.1 23.4 6.5 11.2 100.0 Population Density 7 (Persons/Mi*) 1451 761 391 101 15,338 447 823 348 289 818 Source: California Air Resources Board ------- The region's urban corridors are linked together by a limited number of bridges, tunnels, and freeway facilities. Often only one critical link exists across a topographic barrier, forming a natural constriction on vehicular flow (Figure 2-2), a factor which contributes to relatively high transit usage in commuting. About 55 percent of the commuting to the San Francisco CBD is by transit, while roughly 20 per- cent of all Bay area employees traveling over ten miles prefer bus or rail over the automobile. The climate of the San Francisco Bay Area is typical of California coastal zones. Late fall and winter are cool and windy and experience the greatest part of the region's moderate rainfall. Spring weather is variable. Most summer days are dry and sunny. Wind patterns in the basin vary as a function of location and as a function of both time of day and season. The most frequent daylight pattern is a moderate sea breeze radiating from the coast and Central Bay area. In the evenings, the wind direction frequently reverses to a land breeze. Air movement and stability are usually dominated by the Pacific high pressure zone and the associated subsidence temperature inversion. The inversion is strongest during the summer and early fall, varying daily from 1,000 to 3,000 feet. Winds normally provide adequate ventilation to the Bay Area. However, during the summer and early fall, the persistent temperature inversion is sometimes accompanied by nearly stagnant wind conditions. This situation leads to excessive accumulation of pollutants. Since such days are associated with moderate to high temperature and solar radiation, a photochemical smog problem results. 2.1.2 Problem Definition Air quality measurements taken in the San Francisco region reveal air pollution to be a severe problem. The severity of the air pollution can be shown by several indices -- the geographical extent of the problem and the number of days per year various standards are violated. The extent of the problem is summarized in Table 2-4, which displays the highest readings and number of days certain levels were exceeded at various sites throughout the basin. As shown, maximum oxidant readings often exceed the air quality standard by more than four-fold. Due to moderately favorable climatology, the frequency of violations at any given station is at most, about one day in seven. ------- San Francisco Access Constraints 1. San Francisco - Oakland Bay Bridge Golden Gate Bridge I 280 Bayshore Freeway (U.S.101) Other Access Constraints Caldecott Tunnel (CH 24) Dublin Canyon (I 580) San Mateo Bridge Dumbarton Bridge Carquinez Bridge Richmond-San Rafael Bridge Source: Metropolitan Transportation Commission Figure 2-2. Key Access Constraints Within the Bay Area 23 ------- TABLE 2-4. AIR POLLUTION IN THE BAY AREA (1971-1972) Location of Stations San Francisco San Rafael Richmond Pittsburg Walnut Creek Oakland San Leandro Fremont Li vermore San Jose Redwood City Burl ingame Petal uma Napa Vallejo Fairfield Los Gates Mountain View Santa Rosa OXIDANT 1971 1 2 Haxitnuir Violations .19 2 .13 9 .28 7 .20 23 .23 . 36 .31 10 .36 21 .33 45 .23 52 .15 14 .28 17 .17 5 .12 6 .14 9 .19 11 .10 12 - - "* ™ 1972 Maximum Violations .08 0 .17 5 .12 7 .19 25 .17 30 .12 1 .17 15 .34 44 .22 27 .20 19 .28 17 .14 8 .07 0 .18 20 .26 15 .13 4 .21 15 .19 10 "" '-, "" CARBON MONOXIDE 1 9 1 1 3 4 Maximum Violations 11 3 8 0 13 1 6 0 _ 11 2 - 9 0 8 0 17 * 12 7 0 10 1 - 9 0 13 6 - _ _ _ _ ' 1972 Maximum Violations 11.7 1 7.7 0 9.1 0 5.1 0 7.2 0 6.5 0 6.5 0 13.8 11 9.2 0 9.9 0 7.4 0 12.1 5 _ - NITROGEN DIOXIDE 1971 wnnua i Averaae .027 .024 .021 .022 _ .040 - .025 .034 .030 - .013 .018 — _ _ .020 ro Highest hourly average in ppm 2 Number of days one hour average of 0.10 ppm was exceeded Highest 12-hour average in ppm 4 Number of days 12-hour average of 10 ppm was exceeded Source: Bay Area Air Pollution Control District ------- .30T .25 ^.20 + 1. o. .15- X o rsj 01 .10 .05 San Francisco x San Rafael O San Leandro • San Jose % Redwood City A Walnut Creek D Liver-more A Six-Station District Average (excluding Liver-more) 62 63 64 65 66 67 YEAR 68 69 70 71 72 Figure 2-3. Trend of Average High-Hour Oxidant Concentrations for Days with Comparable Temperature and Inversion Conditons (April through October Photochemical Oxidant Seasons, 1962-1971) Source: Bay Area Air Pollution Control District ------- It is interesting to note that many of the Los Angeles regional characteristics are also prevalent in the San Francisco Bay Area. Overall, the population density in the San Francisco Bay Area is less than the Los Angeles region. Only San Francisco County has a high population density (15,338 persons/square mile) compared to the region, i.e. 818 persons/ square mile). The severest air pollution does not occur in the most active center or highest density area, but rather downwind of these areas. For example, in the South Coast Air Basin, the most critical problem areas are places like Riverside, Indio, and Banning -- areas east of downtown Los Angeles. In the San Francisco region, severe problems exist in San Leandro, Fremont, and Livermore -.- all regions downwind of the more populous urban centers. Even areas on the outskirts of the airshed experience pollution and it has frequently been suggested that pollution from the Bay Area spills over into adjacent areas, e.g., the Sacramento Valley Air Basin. This is analogous to transport of pollutants in the Southeast Desert from the South Coast Air Basin. Overall, the recent trends for the Bay Area show a significant improvement in air quality over the past few years. The majority of monitoring stations have shown improvements with only a couple of sites experiencing more adverse conditions (Figure 2-3). 2.1.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness The following figures and tables present both the baseline data and effectiveness of the various control measures for reactive hydro- carbons and carbon monoxide. The effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in relation to those allowable emissions which are necessary to meet the standards. The baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state, and local controls which are already, or will be, in effect on all types of sources. The curve for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due to the proposed Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles only. Other curves show the reductions due to stationary source controls, aircraft ground operation controls, and Phase II controls. 26 ------- 600 (1) Baseline (2) Stationary Source Controls (3) Motor Vehicle Controls (4) Aircraft Controls 5) Phase II "Without" Gasoline Rationing 6) Phase LI "With" Gasoline Rationing 500 400 GO o 300 200 100 ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS (125 Tons/Day) 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 YEAR Figure 2-4. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness For San Francisco Bay Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons (1970-1980) 27 ------- 2500 2000 1500 oo o 1000 ALLOWABLE _EMI_SSIONS (1364 TONS/DAY) 500 (1) Baseline (2) Motor Vehicle Controls (3) Aircraft Controls + + 4- 1970 1972 1974 1976 YEAR 1978 1980 Figure 2-5. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness For San Francisco Bay Area - Carbon Monoxide (1972-1980) 28 ------- TABLE 2-5. SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977, 1980 SOURCE Stationary Sources Petroleum Refining Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning Oegreasing Other Chemical Industries Incineration and Agricultural Burning Fuel Combustion: Steam Power Plants Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Other: Mineral, Food, Lumber, and Metallurgical Subtotal -Stationary Ai rcraf t Motor Vehicles Light Duty Motor Vehicles Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles Diesels Motorcycles Total 1971 THC 54 126 210 24 46 80 21 8 1 2 17 589 34 362 23 9 13 1030 RHC 5 117 42 5 9 16 - 1 - _ - 195 31 301 19 9 12 567 NOX 55 - - - - - 3 - 58 62 8 186 14 326 20 78 - 624 CO 9 - - - - - 27 25 - 21 10 92 110 2137 131 54 49 2573 1975 THC 61 142 222 25 49 85 25 8 1 2 20 642 38 209 23 10 17 939 RHC 6 132 44 5 10 17 1 - - - 215 34 170 19 10 15 463 NOX 55 - - - - - 3 - 61 66 10 195 21 273 22 103 - 614 CO 9 - - - - - 32 25 - . 12 78 152 1301 149 62 60 1802 1977 THC 64 150 229 26 51 88 27 8 1 2 22 670 38 154 22 10 19 913 RHC 6 140 46 5 10 18 - 1 - _ - 225 34 123 18 10 17 428 NOX 55 - - - - - 4 - 63 68 11 201 25 213 21 96 - 556 CO 9 - - - - - 34 25 - _ 13 81 177 933 154 56 69 1470 1980 THC 71 166 246 28 54 94 30 8 1 2 24 726 37 94 19 9 22 907 RHC 7 152 49 6 11 19 - 1 - . - 245 33 73 16 9 20 396 NOX 55 - — - - - 4 - 68 73 12 212 33 137 19 87 - 488 CO 9 - - - - - 38 25 - _ 15 87 192 522 163 46 81 1091 ro vo ------- TABLE 2-6. SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AQCR - EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES Source Stationary Sources Petroleum Refining Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning Degreasing Other Chemical Industries Incineration and Agri- cultural Burning Fuel Combustion: Steam Power Plants Residential, Commer- cial, and Industrial Other: Mineral, Food, Lumber, and Metallurgical Subtotal — Stationary Aircraft Motor Vehicles LDMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles Total 1971 THC 54 126 210 24 46 80 21 S 1 2 17 589 34 - 362 23 9 13 1030 RHC 5 117 42 5 9 16 - 1 - - . 195 31 301 19 9 12 567 NOX 55 - - - - - 3 - 58 62 8 186 14 326 20 78 - 624 CO 9 - - - - - 27 25 - 21 10 92 no 2137 131 54 49 2573 1975 THC 61 36 155 3 49 85 25 3 1 2 20 440 22 159 23 10 17 671 RHC . 6 33 31 1 - 17 - - - . . 88 20 128 19 10 15 272 NOX 55 - - - - - 3 - 61 66 10 195 21 270 22 103 - 611 CO 9 - - - - - 32 12 - - 12 65 130 989 149 62 60 1455 1977 THC 64 15 115 3 51 88 27 3 1 2 22 391 21 110 22 10 19 573 RHC 6 14 23 1 - 18 - - - - _ 62 18 83 18 10 17 210 NOX 55 - - - - - 4 - 63 68 11 201 25 212 21 96 - 555 CO 9 - - - - - 34 12 - - 13 68 152 647 154 56 69 1146 1980 THC 71 16 123 3 54 94 30 3 1 2 24 421 25 68 19 9 22 564 RHC 7 15 25 1 - 19 - - - - — 67 22 49 16 9 20 183 NOX 55 - - - - - 4 - 68 73 12 212 33 136 19 87 • - 487 CO 9 - - - - - 38 12 - - 15 74 166 363 163 46 81 893 ------- TABLE 2-7. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) OJ Baseline Emission Inventory3 LDMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Control Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV VSAD (1955-65) Inspecti on /Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Projected Reductions from Additional Optimistic Measures Eliminate Motorcycles (during smog season) LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0 HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap + 50 percent I/M* Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions San Francisco Bay Area 1971 Tons/day 301.0 19.0 9.0 12.0 341.0 1975 Tons /day 170.0 19.0 10.0 15.0 214.0 Reductions Tons/day -30.0 -3.8 -8.0 -41.8 172.2 -15.0 -21.0 -10.0 -87.8 Percent 14.0 1.8 3.7 19.5 80.5 7.0 9.8 4.7 41.0 1977 Tons/ day 123.0 18.0 10.0 17.0 168.0 Reductions Tons/day -23.0 -1.6 -15.0 -39.6 128.4 -17.0 -14.0 -9.0 -79.6 88.4 Percent 13.7 1.0 8.9 23.6 76.4 10.1 8.3 5.4 47.4 52.6 1980 Tons/day 73.0 16.0 9.0 20.0 118.0 Reductions Tons/day -14.5 -0.6 -8.8 -23.9 94.1 -20.0 -7.5 -7.6 -59.0 59.0 Percent 12.3 0.5 7.5 20.3 79.7 16.9 6.4 6.4 50.0 50.0 a Based on presently proposed control programs b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure 1n 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980 c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all nre- 1970 cars d 50 percent THC effective, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles, 9 percent reduction in HC from I/M Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV) ------- TABLE 2-8. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) Co Baseline Emission Inventory3 LDMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Control Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV VSAD (1955-65) Inspection/Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions San Francisco Bay Area 1971 Tons/day 2137.0 131.0 54.0 49.0 2371.0 1975 Tons /day 1301.0 149.0 62.0 60.0 1572.0 Reductions Tons/day -275.0 -6.3 -31.0 -312.3 1260.0 Percent 17.5 0.4 1.9 19.9 80.2 1977 Tons/day 933.0 154.0 56.0 69.0 1212.0 Reductions Tons/day -196.0 -1.8 -88.0 -285.8 926.0 Percent 16.2 0.1 7.3 23.6 76.4 1980 Tons/day 522.0 163.0 46.0 81.0 812.0 Reductions Tons/day -109.0 -0.3 -50.0 -159.3 653.0 Percent 13.4 0.0 6.2 19.6 80.4 a Based on presently proposed control oroqrams b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980 Light Duty Motor Vehicle - {LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV) ------- 2.2 Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR The Sacramento Valley Air Basin is located in the northern portion of the Great Valley and extends into the surrounding mountain slopes. It is characterized by valley floor elevations from 40 to 500 feet, surrounded on three sides by mountains over 10,000 feet high. The basin is bounded on the west by the Coast Range, on the north and east by the Cascade Range and the Sierra Nevada Range, and on the south by the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin. Figure 2-6 is a map showing the 15 counties which comprise the air basin. 2.2.1 Regional Description Weather in the Sacramento Valley is characterized by hot, dry summers and moderate to cold, wet winters. Mean annual temperature is 62°F on the valley floor, with 15 inches annual precipitation. Air flow in the Sacramento Valley tends to be parallel to the valley's axis. Thus, wind directions are generally southerly or northerly. A characteristic summer daytime flow is from the south, particularly along the east side of the valley, as the cool maritime air of the Pacific Ocean enters the valley through the Carquinez Straits and through lesser channels in the coastal mountain range and flows northward to replace rising air in the valley. On occasion, this south wind does not extend across the entire valley floor, but instead, a light northerly counter-current may exist on the west side of the valley. In winter, the wind directions are generally dependent upon the passage of frontal systems through the valley. Southerly winds generally occur as a front approaches with a marked wind shift to the northwest or north after the front has passed. The strongest northerly winds occur after the front has passed, decreasing in speed over a period of a few days. After some winter frontal passages, an intense anti-cyclonic circulation may develop over Oregon causing a large supply of cold continental air from the Great Basin to spill over the Sierra into the valley. 33 ------- Location Of Basin Lake Tahoe Shading designates boundaries of Sacramento regional area Denotes location of primary air quality monitoring stations Figure.2-6 Sacramento Valley Intrastate AQCR Source; California A1r Resources Board 34 ------- Air movement may stagnate between storms in winter, but the highest frequency of stagnation occurs in autumn, during the period after the characteristic summer flow ceases and before the season of winter storms has commenced. During any season, nighttime cold density flows may occur in the absence of strong barometric pressure gradients. These flows are most pronounced in sloping mountain valleys and tend to follow water drainage patterns. These density flows lead to a pooling of cold air with a temperature inversion at the top of the pool; thus, any radiation inversion that might occur independently on the valley floor may be augmented by cold air flowing off of the sloping sides of the valley. In addition to these nighttime ground inversions, a subsidence inversion frequently exists both day and night and at any season, but particularly in summer. The height of this subsidence inversion is not well documented but its existence is evident to people flying in the valley or to people at a mountain location which affords an overview of the valley. This temperature inversion, while generally not sensibly apparent from the valley floor, is well defined by the top of the smoke and haze layer in the valley. While the entire Valley Basin appears to be equally susceptible to the type of meteorology which augments adverse pollution levels, the actual occurrence of smoggy days is noted most predominantly in the most populated portions. The area experiencing worst air quality centers around Sacramento County in the south end of the basin. The majority of population in this area is concentrated in the Sacramento urban area as shown in Figure 2-7. This area and its surrounding counties was selected as the control region for the development of transportation plans in the study analysis. The region includes Sacramento County and the surrounding counties of Yolo, Sutter, Yuba, Placer, and El Dorado. It represents 30 percent of the land in the basin, and contains 75 percent of the basin's population. The region's boundaries correspond almost identically to those of the region served by the Sacramento Regional Area Planning Commission (which has the responsibility of planning in this area). 35 ------- l_ LEGEND Persons Per Acre O- 1.49 1.50- 3.99 4.00- UP REGIONAL ANALYSIS DISTRICTS MAJOR ANALYSIS ZONES I MINOR ANALYSIS ZONES Figure 2-7 Population Density by Zone, Sacramento Regional Area 36 ------- Three-fourths of all vehicular travel carried out in the region is generated within the Sacramento urbanized area. Through travel, although heavy on major routes during weekends, is small compared to total vehicle travel in the region (through trips were less than one percent of total trips, and accounted for approximately four percent of all vehicle mileage). Within the six-county area served by the Sacramento Regional Area Planning Commission, only one concentration of population is of sufficient size to need an extensive regional mass transportation system at this time. This concentration has as a nucleus the city of Sacramento, the developed portions of Sacramento County north, northeast, and south of the city limits, and a small developed portion of eastern Yolo County adjacent to the city. There are strong economic and travel links from Sacramento County to the nearby communities of Davis, Woodland, Folsom, and Roseville. Within the study area the Sacramento Regional Transit District serves some 20,000 passengers a day. Other special bus services are provided by air bases and local schools. 2.2.2 Problem Definition Air quality in the Sacramento Basin is determined by continuous monitoring of pollutants at a limited number of air quality monitoring stations. These stations are operated by the California Air Resources Board, the Sacramento County Air Pollution Control District, and the Environmental Protection Agency. The locations of these stations are shown in Figure 2-6. During the period from 1970 to 1972, the basin air quality stations have recorded several occurrences in which the Federal air quality standards have been exceeded. Table 2-9 summarizes these violation occur- rences for carbon monoxide and oxidant. Air quality data for nitrogen levels in Sacramento County are shown in Table 2-10. 37 ------- TABLE 2-9 SUMMARY OF AIR QUALITY VIOLATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AIR BASIN (1970-1972) Month/Year Apri 1 , May, June, July, Aug., Sept., Oct., Nov., Dec., Jan. , Feb., March, April , May, June, July, Aug., Sept., Oct., Nov. , Dec., Jan. , Feb., March, Apri 1 , May, June, July, Aug. , Sept., Oct., Nov., Dec., 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 ,1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 Carbon. Monoxide 2 Violations Maximum Level __ — — — -- — 1 2 — 3 __ -- — 1 -- — -- -- — 12 11 3 27 2 1 -- — -- -- -- — -- — — m 3 «. _ — -- — — — 10 10 — 10 __ — — 9 — -- -- — — 10 34 10 34 10 9 -- — — — — -- — — — H. 10 Oxidant Violations Maximum Level3 <_ •• 9 10 13 12 11 8 — -- 63 __ -- 3 7 9 12 29 29 15 14 1 — 119 __ — 4 5 15 25 31 22 20 15 ' 1 ••••__ 138 — _ .24 .19 .21 .18 .17 .15 — — .24 ._ — .10 .12 .13 .11 .18 .19 .24 .18 .09 — .24 _- -- .20 .13 .14 .25 .28 .20 .17 .11 .09 ' ' "" .28 lumber of days per month the Federal Air Quality Standard was exceeded in the Air Basin. 2Based on exceeding a 12-hour average of 10 ppm p_r an 8-hour average of 9 ppm; data compiled using both standards. 3Based on exceeding a 1-hour average of 0.08 ppm or 0.10 ppm; data compiled using both standards. Source: California Air Resources Board 38 ------- TABLE 2-10. ANNUAL N0? CONCENTRATIONS IN SACRAMENTO COUNTY (13th and J Street Station) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 NOg Average (ppm) 0.037 0.040 0.039 0.027 0.035 0.025 0.030 0.029 . 0.025 Note: The Federal air quality standard for N02 is an annual arithmetic mean of .05 ppm. Source: Sacramento County Air Pollution Control District The monitoring station records clearly demonstrate that among those pollutants which are subjects of this study (oxidant, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides), high levels of oxidant pose the most persistent air pollution control problem in the basin. Other pollutant measurements, such as sulfur dioxide or particulate concentration, have on occasion exceeded the Federal air standards, but to a far lesser degree than is typical of oxidant violations. 2.2.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness The following figures and tables present both the baseline data and effectiveness of the various control measures for reactive hydro- carbons and carbon monoxide. The effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in relation to those allowable emissions which are necessary to meet the standards. The baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state and local controls which are already, or will be, in effect on all types of sources. The curve for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due to the proposed Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles only. Other curves show the reductions due to stationary source controls. 39 ------- 120 100 80 I to z p 60 40 ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS (34.5 TONS/DAY) MLLUHMDLL. l-HlJOlUltO /,. 20 1) Baseline 2) Stationary Source Controls 3) Mobile Source Controls 4 Aircraft Controls 5 Phase II Controls "Without" Gasoline Rationing 6 Phase II Controls "With" Gasoline Rationing 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 YEAR Figure 2-8. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento Regional Area - Reactive Hydrocarbons (1970-1980) 40 ------- 700 600 jALLOWABL EJMISSIONS. (621 Tons/Day)" 500 400 300 (1) Baseline (2) Motor Vehicle Controls (3) Aircraft Control 200 100 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 YEAR Figure 2-9. Summary of. Control Strategy Effectiveness for Sacramento Regional Area - Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980) 41 ------- TABLE "2-11. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1972, 1975, 1977, 1980 SOURCE Stationary Sources Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning Degreasing Other Incineration LuHber Industry Agriculture Fuel Confcustion: Residential. Commercial, and Industrial Other: Chemical, Mineral, Metallurgical, and Pet Production Subtotal - Stationary Aircraft Motor Vehicles Light Duty Motor Vehicles Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles Diesels Motorcycles Total 1972 THC 23.0 9.6 3.4 7.0 11.0 18.0 3.6 4.0 1.8 5.4 86.8 13.6 80.7 5.0 2.0 3.7 191.8 RHC 21.0 1.9 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.4 - 0.7 30.8 12.2 66.7 4.1 2.0 3.3 119.1 NOX 1.6 - - - - 1.2 1.3 0.2 12.0 0.5 16.7 3.2 80.9 4.2 20.0 - 125.0 CO - - - - - 29 20 6 9 1 65 65 506 29 12 14 691 1975 THC 28.0 10.1 3.6 8.5 12.0 19.0 4.0 4.4 1.9 7.0 98.5 9.7 55.9 5.2 2.3 5.3 176.9 RHC 26.0 2.0 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.3 0.3 0.4 - 0.9 36.7 8.7 46.0 4.3 2.3 4.8 102.8 NOX 2.0 - •- - - - 1.3 1.5 0.2 13.0 0.7 18.7 3.3 66.1 4.6 23.0 - 115.7 . CO - ' - - • - 30 21 7 9 2 69 62 345 34 14 20 544 1977 THC 31.0 10.8 3.8 9.7 12.0 20.0 4.3 4.6 2.0 8.3 108.5 9.7 41.2 4.9 2.1 6.6 173.0 RHC . 29.0 2.2 0.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.5 - i.o 40.6 8.7 33.4 4.0 2.1 5.9 94.7 NOX 2.2. - - - - 1.4 1.6 0.2 14.0 0.8 20.2 3.3 51.4 4.5 21.0 - 100.4 CO - - - - - 32 23 7 10 2 74 62 251 35 12 24 458 1980 THC 35.0 11.6 4.1 11.6 13.0 22.0 4.7 5.0 2.1 10.0 119.1 9.7 25.3 4.5 2.0 8.2 168.8 RHC 33.0 2.3 0.8 2.3 2.6 2.6 0.4 0.5 - 1.3 45.8 8.7 19.9 3.7 2.0 7.4 87.5 NOX 2.5 - - - - 1.5 1.8 0.3 15.0 1.0 22.1 3.5 33.9 4.2 20.0 - 83. 7 CO - - - - - 34 25 3 10 2 79 63 143 38 11 31 365 ------- TABLE 2-12. SACRAMENTO REGIONAL AREA EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES Source Stationary Sources Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning Degreasing Other Incineration Lumber Industry Agriculture Fuel Combustion: Residential, Commer- cial, and Industrial Other: Chemical, Mineral , Metallurgical, and Petroleum Production Subtotal - Stationary Aircraft Motor Vehicles LDMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles Total 1972 THC 23 9.6 3.4 7.0 11 18 3.6 4.0 1.8 5.4 86.8 13.6 80.7 5.0 2.0 3.7 191.8 RHC 21 1.9 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.4 . 0.7 30.8 12.2 66.7 4.1 2.0 3.3 119.1 NOX 1.6 - - - - 1.2 1.2 0.2 12 0.5 16.7 3.2 80.9 4.2 20.0 - 125.0 CO - - - - - 29 19 6 9 1 64 65 506 29 12 14 690 1975 THC 7.0 7.1 0.4 8.5 12 9.5 1.6 3.5 1.9 7.0 58.5 5.8 43.5 5.2 2.3 5.3 120.6 RHC 6.5 1.4 0.1 - 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.4 - 0.9 13.0 5.2 34.5 4.3 2.3 4.8 64.1 NOX 2.0 - - - - 0.7 1.5 0.2 13 0.7 18.1 3.3 64.8 4.6 23.0 - 113.8 CO - - - - 15 8 6 9 2 40 58.3 261 34 14 20 427.3 1977 THC 3.1 5.4 0.4 9.7 12 10 1.7 3.7 2.0 8.3 56.3 5.9 30.0 4.9 2.1 6.6 105.8 RHC 2.9 1.1 0.1 - 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.4 - 1.0 9.3 5.3 24.8 4.0 2.1 5.9 49.7 NOX 2.2 - - - - 0.7 1.6 0.2 14 0.8 19.5 3.3 50.6 4.5 21.0 - 98.9 CO - - - - - 16 9 6 10 2 43 58.3 173 35 12 24 345.3 1980 THC 3.5 5.8 0.4 11.6 13 11 1.9 4.0 2.1 10.0 63.3 6.5 19.6 4.5 2.0 8.2 101.7 RHC 3.3 1.2 0.1 - 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.4 - 1.3 10.4 5.8 15.6 3.7 2.0 7.4 43.0 NOX 2.5 - - - - 0.8 1.8 0.2 15 1.0 21.3 3.5 33.5 4.2 20.0 - 825 CO - - - - - 17 10 7 10 2 46 59.6 99 38 11 31 284.6 ------- TABLE 2-13. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) Baseline Emission Inventory3. LDHV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Control Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV VSAD (1955-65) Inspection/Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Projected Reductions from Additional Optimistic Measures Eliminate Motorcycles (during smog season) LDMV Evaporate Retrofit0 HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap + 50 percent 1/M* Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Sacramento Regional Area 1972 Tons/day 66.7 4.1 2.0 3.3 76.1 1975 Tons/day 46.0 4.3 2.3 4.8 57.4 Reductions Tons /day -7.9 -1.6 -2.2 -11.7 45.7 -4.8 -6.1 -2.2 -24.8 32.6 Percent 13.8 2.8 3.8 20.4 79.6 8.4 10.6 3.8 43.2 56.8 1977 Tons/day .33.4 4.0 2.1 5.9 45.4 Reductions Tons /day -5.2 -1.0 -4.7 -10.9 34.5 -5.9 -4.0 -2.0 -22.8 22.6 Percent 11.5 2.2 10.4 24.1 76.0 13.0 8.8 4.4 50.3 49.8 1980 Tons/day 19.9 3.7 2.0 7.4 33.0 • Reductions Tons /day -3.3 -0.5 -2.4 -6.2 26.8 -7.4 -2.1 -1.8 -17.5 15.5 Percent 10.0 1.5 7.3 18.8 81.2 2.2 6.4 5.5 32.9 47.0 a Based on presently proposed control programs b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980 c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars d 50 percent THC effective, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles, 9 percent reduction in HC from I/M Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV) ------- TABLE 2-14. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) Baseline Emission Inventory LDMV HOMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Control Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV VSAD (1955-65) Inspection/Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Sacramento Reqional Area 1972 Tons/day 506.0 29.0 12.0 14.0 561.0 1975 Tons/day 345.0 34.0 14.0 20.0 413.0 Reductions Tons/day -73.0 -2.6 -8.2 -83.8 329.0 Percent 17.7 0.6 2.0 20.3 79.7 1977 Tons/day 251.0 35.0 12.0 24.0 322.0 Reductions Tons /day -53.0 -1.1 -24.0 -78.1 244.0 Percent 16.5 0.3 7.5 24.3 75.8 1980 Tons, 'day 143.0 38.0 11.0 31.0 223.0 Reductions Tons/day -30.0 -0.3 -14.0 -44.3 179.0 Percent 13.5 0.1 6.3 20.0 80.3 a Based on presently proposed control nroqrams b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 nercent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980 Liqht Duty-Motor Vehicles - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV) ------- 2.3 San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR The San Joaquin Valley Air Basin consists of all of the counties of Amador, Calaveras, Fresno, Kings, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Tulare and Tuolumne and the western portion of Kern County. The air basin lies in the southern portion of the Great Valley and extends into the neighboring mountain slopes. It is bounded on the west by the Coastal Range, on the east by the Sierra Nevada Mountains, on the south by the Tehachapi Mountains, and on the north by the Sacramento Valley Air Basin. A map of the basin is shown in Figure 2-10. 2.3.1 Regional Description Due to the temperature contrast during much of the year between the valley and the Pacific waters, air from, the coast enters the valley, primarily through the gap at San Francisco Bay, and undergoes rapid modification in temperature and relative humidity. Part of the flow turns northward into the Sacramento Valley and part southward into the San Joaquin Valley. A wind divergence zone is created by the splitting of the airflow through the Coast Range. The mean summer position of this divergent zone lies at about the Sacramento-San Joaquin and the Amador- El Dorado County borders. The basin includes 30,200 square miles of land surface and had a population over 1.6 million people in 1970, which is a 16 percent increase since 1960. Although the basin contains 19 percent of the state's land area, only eight percent of its people reside within the basin. A network of railroads, air routes, and highways interconnect the three major urban centers in the San Joaquin Valley, Stockton, Fresno, and Bakersfield, and provide access for major recreational areas of Yosemite, Kings Canyon and Sequoia National Parks located in the eastern portion of the valley. Port facilities for water transportation are available only in Stockton; hence, waterways are not a significant part of the circulation of people and goods within the valley. The railroad system within the valley is principally limited to the shipment of industrial, agricultural, and commercial freight. Passenger services which are being offered nationally by the newly created national railway system, AMTRAK, has not been extended to the study area. 46 ------- Location of Basin (AMADOR -^o^ Jackson 4-1. 2^ , ^Visalia HanfoT- Figure 2-10 San Joaquin Valley Intrastate AQCR 47 ------- Each of the three major urban centers have airports which are served by the intrastate airways and have facilities for both private and public airlines. The public need for air freight and travel by air within the valley is adequately served by these airports. The valley highway network is the primary constituent of the transportation system. Freeways and highways interconnect the major urban centers in the valley and provide access to major recreational facilities for residents of the valley as well as residents of other portions of California and the Uiited States, while arterials, collectors, and locals provide for circulation of motor vehicles within the urban centers. At present few freeways exist for local circulation in the three major urban areas. Of the existing freeways in the study area, Route 99 is the backbone of the entire region. Most of the urban, industrial and agricultural development within the valley is located along this facility which has historically served as a primary north-south transportation facility for trucked commodities and motor vehicle passengers with origins and destinations not only within the valley but other major urban centers in California as well. In recognition of the demand for a north-south "through route" a new major freeway has recently been completed within the San Joaquin Valley. The new Interstate 5 (1-5) generally parallels Route 99 to the west and bypasses almost all existing communities within the valley. Ultimately 1-5 will extend along the west coast of the United States from the border of Canada to Mexico. Intercity bus companies provide passenger services within the valley; however, among the variety of different modes of transportation available the private automobile is by far the dominant mode. It was previously established that the primary air pollution problem is a result of an excess of reactive hydrocarbons, a large fraction of which are emitted by automobiles. The quantity of hydrocarbon emissions from automobiles is directly related to the vehicle miles of travel (VMT) within the region. Consequently, air pollution control strategies directed at reducing the dominance of the automobile in the transportation system of the San Joaquin Valley will result in a reduction of the air pollution problem. 48 ------- 2.3.2 Problem Definition National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been exceeded in seven cities in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin. These cities are: Stockton, Fresno, Bakersfield, Modesto, Visalia, Parlier, and Five Points. Each of the areas surrounding the cities have unique charac- teristics with regard to air quality, meteorology, stationary sources, population distribution, and transportation. An adequate transportation strategy must therefore consider each area individually in order that the peculiarities of each area be considered and efficiently dealt with. Some of the control measures which will be considered in this study can only be effectively applied locally; others, because of legal and procedural constraints, may not be reasonable unless applied to a larger area; the air basin or the state. An example of the first type of. measure would be parking restrictions in the central business district of a city; an example of the second type would be a vehicle retrofit program. Three counties in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin have been selected for study: San Joaquin County, Fresno County, and Kern County. San Joaquin County contains the city of Stockton; Fresno County contains the cities of Fresno, Parlier, and Five Points; Kern County contains Bakersfield. The air pollution problems of Modesto and Visalia are not directly dealt with in this study; it is hoped that the general analytical results, ideas, and methodologies may be of benefit to these areas in local planning. (Basin-wide and state-wide control measures, of course, will be of direct benefit to these areas.) Approximately 65 percent of the total population lives within these three counties. .The extremely high potential for growth in both population and travel in these three counties increases the need to concentrate this particular study on them and treat them as relatively independent entities. 49 ------- 2.3.3 Proposed Control Measures and Their Effectiveness The following figures and tables present the baseline emission inventory data and the effectiveness of the various control measures examined. The effectiveness due to each measure can be seen in relation to those allowable emissions which are necessary to meet the standards. The baseline curve illustrates the Federal, state and local controls which are already, or will be, in effect on all types of sources. The curve for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due to the proposed Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles only. Other curves show the reductions due to stationary source controls. 50 ------- SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY si ------- 40 30 OO o 20 10 ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS "Tl5.FTonT7pay) " (1) Baseline (2) Stationary Source Controls (3) Motor Vehicle Controls (4) Phase II Controls 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 YEAR 1980 Figure 2-11. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin County - Reactive Hydrocarbons 52 ------- 300 200 TOO (1) Baseline (2) Motor Vehicle Controls ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS (113 TONS/DAY) 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 YEAR Figure 2-12. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for San Joaquin County - Carbon Monoxide 53 ------- TABLE 2-15. SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977, 1980 SOURCE Stationary Sources Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning (1/3) and Degreasing (2/3) Other Incineration Agriculture Fuel Combustion: Residential, Commer- cial , and Industrial Other: Chemical, Metallurgi- cal, Mineral, Lumber, and Petroleum Prod. Subtotal - Stationary Ai rcraf t Motor Vehicles Light Duty Motor Vehicles Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles Diesels Motorcycles Total 1971 THC 6.8 3.0 3.2 8.8 4.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 28.2 0.08 29.9 2.6 1.1 0.8 62.7 RHC 6.3 0.6 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.2 - 9.9 0.07 24.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 NOX 0.4 - - - 0.3 0.1 6.8 7.6 0.06 27.2 2.7 11.5 38.9 ! 49.1 CO - - - - 7 2 1 2 12 1.9 174 15 7 3 213 1975 THC 7.8 3.2 3.6 9.3 4.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 30.7 0.11 20.4 3.1 1.4 1.0 56.7 RHC 7.2 0.6 0.7 1.9 0.5 0.2 - . 11.1 0.10 16.7 2.5 1.4 0.9 32.7 NOX 0.5 - - - 0.3 0.1 7.2 . 8.1 0.08 24.5 3.4 14.1 - 50.2 CO - - - - 7 3 1 2 12 2.5 124 19 9 4 171 1977 THC 8.3 3.3 3.8 9.6 4.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 32.2 0.13 15.8 3.1 1.5 1.1 53.8 RHC 7.7 0.7 0.8 1.9 0.5 0.2 - . 11.8 0.12 12.7 2.5 1.5 1.0 28.7 NOX 0.5 - - - 0.3 0.1 7.4 . 8.3 0.09 19.7 3.4 14.5 - 46.0 CO - - - - 8 3 1 2 14 2.8 94 21 8 4 144 1980 THC 9.1 3.4 4.1 10.1 4.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 34.3 0.12 10.1 2.9 1.4 1.4 50.2 RHC 8.3 0.7 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 - . 12.6 o.n 7.9 2.4 1.4 1.3 NOX 0.5 - - - 0.4 0.1 7.8 . 8.8 0.10 13.4 3.2 13.7 - 25.7 39.2 CO - - - - 8 3 1 2 14 2.9 57 24 7 5 110 cn ------- TABLE 2-16. SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES Source Stationary Sources Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning (1/3) and Degreasing (2/3) Other Incineration Agriculture Fuel Combustion: Residential, Commer- cial , and Industrial Other: Chemical, Metallurgi- cal, Mineral, Lumber, and Petroleum Prod. Subtotal — Stationary Aircraft Motor Vehicles LDMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles Total THC o.H 3.0 3.2 8.8 4.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 28.2 0.08 29.9 2.6 1.1 0.8 62.7 197 RHC 5.3 •' 0.6 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.2 - - 9.9 0.07 24.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 38.9 NOX 0 . •'- - - - 0.3 0.1 6.8 - 7.6 0.06 27.2 2.7 11.5 - 49.1 CO - - - - 7 2 1 2 12 1.9 174 T5 7 3 213 THC 1.9 2.2 2.4 9.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 19.5 0.11 15.8 3.1 1.4 1.0 40.9 197 RHC 1.8 0.4 - 1.9 n.2 0.1 - - 4.4 0.10 12.6 2.5 1.4 0.9 21.9 5 NOX 0,5 - - - 0.1 0.1 7.2 - 7.9 0.08 24.0 3.4 14.1 - 49.5 CO - - - - 2 2 1 2 7 2.5 94 19 9 4 136 THC 0.8 1.6 2.5 9.6 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 18.5 0.13 11.4 3.1 1.5 1.1 35.7 19 RHC 0.8 0.3 - 1.9 0.2 0.2 - - 3.4 0.12 8.9 2.5 1.5 1.0 17.4 '7 NOX 0.5 - - - 0.1 0.1 7.4 - 8.1 0.09 19.4 3.4 14.5 - 45.5 CO - - - 3 2 1 2 8 2.8 65 21 8 4 109 THC 0.9 1.7 2.7 10.1 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 19.6 0.12 7.2 2.9 1.4 1.4 32.6 198C RHC 0.8 0.3 - 2.0 0.2 0.2 - - 3.5 0.11 5.6 2.4 1.4 1.3 14.3 i ;;ox 0.5 - - - 0.1 0.1 7.8 - 8.0 0.10 13.2 3.2 13.7 - 38.2 CO - - - - 3 3 1 2 9 2.9 40 24 7 5 88 171 tn ------- TABLE 2-17. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) Ol Baseline Emission Inventory LDMV HOMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Phase I Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV Pre-1956 Retrofit (1955-G5) Inspecti on/Mai ntenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Projected Reductions from Phase 11 Measures Eliminate Motorcycles (during smog season) LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0 HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap + 50 percent I/Ma Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions San Joaquin County 1971 Tons /day 24.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 28.9 • 1975 Tons /day 16.7 2.5 1.4 0.9 21.5 Reductions Tons/day -2.7 -0.6 -0.8 -4.1 17.4 -0.9 -2.2 -1.3 -8.5 13.0 Percent 12.6 2.8 3.7 19.1 80.9 4.2 10.2 6.0 39.5 60.5 1977 Tons/day 12.7 2.5 1.5 1.0 17.7 Reductl ons Tons /day -1.9 -0.4 -1.5 -3.8 13.9 -1.0 -1.5 -1.3 -7.6 10.1 Percent 10.7 2.3 8.5 21.5 78.5 5.6 8.5 7.3 4.3 57.1 1980 Tons/day 7.9 2.4 1.4 1.3 13.0 Reductions Tons /day -1.2 -0.2 -0.9 -2.3 10.7 -1.3 -0.8 -1.2 -5.6 7.4 Percent 9.2 1.5 6.9 17.7 82.3 10.0 6.1 9.2 4.3 56.9 a Based on presently planned control programs b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980 c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles, 9 percent reduction in HC from I/M Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV) ------- TABLE 2-18. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) CJl Baseline Emission Inventory8 LDMV HDM'-, Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Control Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65) Inspection/Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaini nq Emissions San Joaquin County 1971 Tons/day 174.0 15.0 7.0 3.0 199.0 1975 Tons/day 124.0 19.0 9.0 4.0 156.0 Reductions Tons/day -Z6.0 -1.0 -2.9 -29.9 126.0 Percent -16.7 -0.6 -1.9 19.2 80.8 1977 Tons/day 94.0 21.0 8.0 4.0 127.0 Reductions Tons/day -20.0 -0.4 -8.8 -29.2 97.8 Percent -15.7 -0.3 -6.9 23.0 77.0 1980 Tons /day 57.0 24.0 7.0 5.0 93.0 Reductions Tons/day -12.0 -0.1 -5.4 -17.5 75.5 Percent -12.9 -0.1 -5.8 18.8 81.2 a Based on presently planned control programs b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980 Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV) ------- FRESNO COUNTY 58 ------- 50 40 S 30 20 10 AUpWABLEJMISSIflNS (19.8 TONS/DAY) (1) Baseline (2) Stationary Source Controls (3) Mobile Source Controls (4) Phase II Controls 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 YEAR Figure 2-13. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno County - Reactive Hydrocarbons (1970-1980) 59 ------- 300 ALLpWABLE_EMISSIONS (271 TONS/DAY) 200 100 1);Baseline 2) Motor Vehicle Controls •4- 4- 1970 1972 1974 1976 YEAR 1978 1980 Figure 2-14. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Fresno County - Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980) 60 ------- TABLE 2-19. FRESNO COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1970, 1975, 1977, 1980 SOURCE Stationary Sources Petroleum Production Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning (1/3) and Degreasing (2/3) Other Incineration L unfcer Industry Agriculture Fuel Combustion: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Other: Chemical, Mineral, and Metallurgical Subtotal - Stationary A1 rcraf t Motor Vehicles Light Duty Motor Vehicles Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles Diesels Motorcycles Total 1970 THC 7.3 6.4 4.2 4.3 12.0 8.0 3.2 21.0 1.5 0.8 68.7 1.1 41.0 1.9 0.8 1.1 114.6 RHC - 6.0 0.8 0.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 2.2 - - 13.6 1.0 34.2 1.6 0.8 1.0 52.2 NOX 4.0 0.6 - - - 0.6 0.3 0.8 8.9 - 15.2 0.5 31.2 1.9 7.4 - 56.2 CO - - - _ - 14 22 34 3 - 73 8 231 10 5 4 331 1975 THC 5.1 7.2 4.4 4.7 13.0 8.5 2.9 25.0 1.6 1.2 73.6 1.2 21.9 2.4 1.1 1.7 101.9 RHC - 6.8 0.9 0.9 2.6 1.0 0.3 2.5 - - 15.0 1.1 17.7 2.0 1.1 1.5 38.4 NOX 2.8 0.7 - . - 0.6 0.3 1.0 9.4 - 14.8 0.6 26.0 2.6 10.4 - 54.4 CO - - - — - 15 21 40 3 - 79 10 141 15 6 6 257 1977 THC 5.1 7.5 4.6 4.8 13.0 8.7 3.5 27.0 1.6 1.4 77.2 1.2 15.5 2.4 1.1 1.9 99.3 RHC - 7.1 0.9 1.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 2.7 - - 15.5 1.1 12.3 1.9 1.1 1.7 33.6 NOX 2.8 0.7 - _ - 0.7 0.2 1.2 9.7 . 15.3 0.7 19.8 2.5 9.6 - 47.9 CO - - - _ - 15 24 43 3 _ 85 11 97 16 6 7 222 1980 THC 5.1 8.2 4.8 5.2 14.0 9.1 3.8 30.0 1.7 1.7 83.6 1.2 9.4 2.3 1.0 2.0 99.5 RHC - . 7.7 1.0 1.0 2.8 1.1 0.3 3.0 - _ 16.9 1.1 7.3 1.9 1.0 1.8 30.0 NOX 2.8 0.8 - _ - 0.7 0.3 1.5 10.2 _ 16.3 0.8 11.9 2.4 10.2 - 41.6 CO - - - „ - 16 25 47 3 _ 91 11 59 17 5 7 190 ------- TABLE 2-20. FRESNO COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES Source Stationary Sources Petroleum Refining and Production Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning (1/3) and Degreasing (2/3) Other Incineration Lumber Industry Agriculture Fuel Combustion: Residential, Conmer- cial, and Industrial Other: Chemical , Mineral, and Metallurgical Subtotal — Stationary Aircraft Motor Vehicles LOMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles Total 1970 THC 7.3 6.4 4.2 4.3 12 8.0 3.2 21 1.5 0.8 68.7 1.1 41.0 1.9 0.8 1.1 114.6 RHC _ 6.0 0.8 0.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 2.2 - - 13.6 1.0 34.2 1.6 0.8 1.0 52.2 NOX 4.0 0.6 - - - 0.6 0.3 0.8 8.9 - 15.2 0.5 31.2 1.9 7.4 - 56.2 CO . - - - - 14 22 34 3 . 73 8 231 10 5 4 331 1975 THC 5.1 1.8 3.0 3.3 13 3.0 0.9 2.0 1.6 1.2 34.9 1.2 17.2 2.4 1.1 1.7 58.5 RHC . 1.7 0.6 - 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 - . 5.6 1.1 13.5 2.0 1.1 1.5 24.8 NOX 2.8 0.7 - - - 0.2 0.1 0.1 9.4 . 13.3 0.6 25.5 2.6 10.4 - 52.4 CO - - - - - 5 5 3 3 - 13 10 107 15 6 6 157 1977 THC 5.1 0.8 2.3 3.4 13 3.1 0.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 33.8 1.2 11.1 2.4 1.1 1.9 51.5 RHC - 0.7 0.5 - 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 - - 4.5 1.1 8.5 1.9 1.1 1.7 18.8 NOX 2.8 0.7 - - - 0.2 0.1 0.1 9.7 . 13.6 0.7 19.5 2.5 9.6 - 45.7 CO - - - - - 5 6 4 3 - 18 11 67 16 6 7 125 1980 THC 5.1 0.9 2.4 3.6 14 3.2 0.9 2.4 1.7 1.7 35.9 1.2 6.7 2.3 1.0 2.0 49.1 RHC - 0.8 0.5 - 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 - - 4.8 1.1 5.0 1.9 1.0 1.8 15.6 NOX 2.8 0.8 - - - 0.2 0.1 0.2 10.2 - 14.3 0.8 11.8 2.4 10.2 - 39.5 CO - - - - - 6 6 4 3 - 19 11 41 17 5 7 100 ro ------- TABLE 2-21. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) OJ Baseline Emission Inventorya LDMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Phase I Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit (1955-65) Inspect! on /Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaininq Emissions Projected Reductions from Phase II Measures Eliminate Motorcycles (during smog season) LDMV Evaporate Retrofit0 HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap + 50 percent I/Md Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Fresno County 1970 Tons/day 34.2 1.6 0.8 1.0 37.6 197E Tons /day 17.7 2.0 1.1 1.5 22.3 Reductions Tons /day -2.8 -0.6 -0.8 -4.2 18.1 -1.5 -2.3 -1.0 -9.0 13.3 Percent 12.6 2.7 3.6 18.8 81.2 6.7 10.3 4.5 40.4 59.6 1977 Tons/day 12.3 1.9 1.1 1.7 17.0 Reductions Tons /day -1.9 -0.4 -1.5 -3.8 13.2 -1.7 -1.5 -1.0 -8.0 9.0 Percent 11.2 2.4 8.8 22.4 77.6 10.0 . 8.8 5.9 47.1 52.9 1980 Tons /day 7.3 1.9 1.0 1.8 12.0 Reductions Tons/day -1.2 -0.2 -0.9 -2.3 9.7 -1.8 -0.8 -0.9 -5.8 6.2 Percent 10.0 1.7 7.5 19.2. 80.8 15.0 6.7 7.5 48.3 51.7 a Based on presently planned control programs b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980 c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evap. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles, 9 percent reduction in HC from I/M Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV) ------- TABLE 2-22. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSION FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) Baseline Emission Inventory* LDHV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Phase I Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit (1955-65) Inspect! on /Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Fresno County 1970 Tons/day 231.0 10.0 5.0 4.0 250.0 1975 Tons /day 141.0 15.0 6.0 6.0 168.0 Reductions Tons/day -30.0 -1.1 -3.3 -34.4 134.0 Percent 17.9 0.7 2.0 20.5 79.8 1977 Tons /day 97.0 16.0 6.0 7.0 126.0 Reductions Tons/day -20.0 -0.4 -9.2 -29.6 96.0 Percent 15.9 0.3 7.3 23.5 76.2 1980 Tons/day 59.0 17.0 5.0 7.0 88.0 Reductions Tons/day -12.0 -0.1 -5.6 -17.7 70.0 Percent 13.6 0.1 6.4 20.1 79.5 a Based on presently planned control programs b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980 Light Duty Motor Vehicle - (LDHV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV) ------- KERN COUNTY 65 ------- < a to 50 40 30 20 10 ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS (17.1 TONS/DAY) (1) Baseline (2) Stationary Source Controls (3) Motor Vehicle Controls (4) Phase II Controls 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 YEAR Figure 2-15. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern County - Reactive Hydrocarbons (1970-1980) 66 ------- Figure 2-16 Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern County - Carbon Monoxide (1970 - 1980) 400 300 _ ALLOWABLL_EM1SSIONS ( 45 TONS/DAY) 200 100 (1) Baseline (2) Motor Vehicle Controls H 1 1 h -I 1 1 h 1970 1972 1974 1976 YEAR 1978 1980 Figure 2-16. Summary of Control Strategy Effectiveness for Kern County - Carbon Monoxide (1970-1980) 67 ------- TABLE 2-23. KERN COUNTY BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY, 1971, 1975, 1977 AND 1980 SOURCE Stationary Sources Petroleum Production and Refining Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents Surface Coating Dry Cleaning (1/3) and Degreasing (2/3) Other Incineration Agriculture Fuel Combustion: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Subtotal — Stationary A1 rcraf t Motor Vehicles Light Duty Motor Vehicles Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles Diesels Motorcycles Total 1971 THC 61.8 5.7 2.1 2.1 8.1 14.0 5.0 0.8 98.8 0.12 36.4 3.7 1.6 1.5 142.1 RHC 1.5 5.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.5 - 11.1 0.11 30.3 3.0 1.6 1.4 47.5 NOX 46.0 - - - - 1.9 - 7.5 55.4 0.08 33.8 3.9 16.3 - 109.5 CO 102 - - - - 29 6 1 139 3 209 20 10 12 383 1975 THC 66.0 6.5 2.2 2.3 8.4 15.0 5.3 0.8 106.5 0.14 22.9 4.0 1.9 2.5 137.9 RHC 1.6 6.0 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.5 - 12.2 0.13 18.7 3.3 1.9 2.3 38.5 NOX 46.0 - - - - 2.0 - 7.9 55.9 O.K 28.5 4.4 19.2 - 108.1 CO 102 - - - - 30 7 1 141 4 138 25 12 2 322 1977 THC 9 69.0 7.0 2.3 2.4 8.6 15.0 5.7 0.9 110.9 0.16 17.4 3.8 1.8 2.8 136.9 RHC 1.7 6.5 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.6 - 12.9 0.14 13.9 3.1 1.8 2.5 34.3 NOX 46.0 - - - - 2.1 - 8.0 56.1 0.11 22.4 4.2 18.2 - 101.0 CO 102 - - - - 31 7 1 142 4 103 26 11 3 279.1 1980 THC 76.0 7.6 2.3 2.6 8.9 16.0 6.1 0.9 120.4 0.17 10.6 3.5 1.7 3.1 139.5 RHC 1.9 7.0 0.5 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 - 13.9 0.15 8.3 2.8 1.7 2.8 29.7 NOX 46.0 - - - - 2.1 - 8.3 56.4 0.13 14.4 3.9 16.6 - 91.4 CO 102 - - - - 32 8 1 144 5 59 29 9 3 249 CO ------- TABLE 2-24. KERN COUNTY EMISSION INVENTORY AFTER PHASE I CONTROL MEASURES Source Stationary Sources Petroleum Production and Refining Petroleum Marketing Organic Solvents: Surface Coating Dry Cleaning (1/3) and Degreasing (2/3) Other Incineration Agriculture Fuel Combustion: Residential, Commer- cial , and Industrial Other: Chemical, Mineral , Metallurgical , and Lumber Subtotal - Stationary Aircraft Motor Vehicles LDMV HOMV Diesels Motorcycles Total 1971 THC 61 5.7 2.1 2.1 8.1 14 5.0 0.8 98.8 0.12 36.4 3.7 1.6 1.5 142.1 RHC 1.5 5.3 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.5 - 11.1 0.11 30.3 3.0' 1.6 1.4 47.5 NOX 46 - - - - 1.9 - 7.5 55.4 0.08 33,8 3.9 16.3 - 109.5 CO 102 - - - - 29 6 - 1 139.0 3 209 20 10 2 383 1975 THC 66 1.7 1.5 1.5 8.4 5.2 0.4 0.8 85.5 0.14 18.5 4.0 1.9 2.5 108.9 RHC 1.6 1.5 0.3 - 1.7 0.5 - - 5.6 0.13 14.1 3.3 1.9 2.3 27.3 NOX 46 - - - - 0.7 - 7.9 54.6 0.10 27.9 4.4 19.2 - 106.2 CO 102 - ' - - 10 1 1 1 115 4 105 25 12 2 263 1977 THC 69 0.7 1.1 1.6 8.6 5.3 0.4 0.9 87.6 0.16 12.6 3.8 1.8 2.8 108.8 RHC 1.7 0.7 0.2 - 1.7 0.5 - - 4.8 0.14 9.7 3.1 1.8 2.5 22.0 NOX 46 - - - - 0.7 - 8.0 54.4. 0.11 22.1 4.2 18.2 - 99.3 CO 102 - - - - 11 1 1 1 116 4 71 26 11 3 231 1980 THC 76 0.8 1.2 1.7 8.9 5.6 0.5 0.9 95.6 0.17 7.5 3.5 1.7 3.1 111.6 RHC 1.9 0.7 0.3 - 1.8 0.6 0.1 - 5.4 0.15 5.8 2.8 1.7 2.8 18.7 NOX 46 - - - - 0.7 - 8.3 55.0 0.13 14.2 3.9 16.6 - 89.8 CO 102 - - - - 11 1 1 1 116 5 41 29 9 3 203 ------- TABLE 2-25. REACTIVE HYDROCARBON EMISSION FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AND ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) Baseline Emission Inventory2 LDMV HDMV Diesels Motorcycles TOTAL Projected Reductions from Phase I Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit(1955-65) Inspection/Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Projected Reductions from Phase II Eliminate Motorcycles (during smog season) LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0 HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap + 50 percent I/Md Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Kern County 1971 Tons -'day 30.3 2.0 1.5 1.4 36.3 p 1975 Tons/day 18.7 3.3 1.9 2.3 26.2 Reductions Tons/day -3.0 -0.7 -0.9 -4.6 21.6 -2.3 -2.5 -1.7 -11.1 15.1 Percent 11.5 2.7 3.4 17.6 82.4 8.8 9.5 6.5 42.4 57.6 1977 Tons /day 13.9 3.1 1.8 2.5 21.3 Reductions Tons /day -2.1 -0.4 -1.7 -4.2 17.1 Percent 9.8 1.9 8.0 19.7 80.3 i -2.5 -1.7 -1.6 -10.0 11.3 11.7 8.0 7.5 46.9 53.1 1980 Tons /day 8.3 2.8 1.7 2.8 15.6 Reductions tons /day -1.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.5 13.1 -2.8 -0.9 -1.3 -7.5 8.5 Percent 8.3 1.3 6.4 16.0 84.0 1.8 5.8 8.3 48.1 54.5 a Based on presently planned control programs b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980 c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all pre- 1970 cars d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evan. - 83 percent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles, 9 percent reduction in HC from I/M Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HDMV) ------- TABLE 2-26. CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES - PROJECTED INVENTORY AMD ANTICIPATED REDUCTIONS (1975-1980) Baseline Emission Inventory* LDMV x HDMV Diesels Motorcycl es TOTAL Projected Reductions from Control Measures LDMV Cat. Converter LDMV Pre-1966 Retrofit (1955-65) Inspection/Maintenance Total Reductions TOTAL Remaining Emissions Kern County 1971 Tons /day 209.0 20.0 10.0 2.0 241.0 1975 Tons /day 138.0 25.0 12.0 2.0 177.0 Reductions Tons/day -29.0 -1.0 -3.2 -33.2 144.0 Percent 16.4 0.6 1.8 18.8 81.3 1977 Tons/day 103.0 26.0 11.0 3.0 143.0 Reductions Tons/day -22.0 -0.5 -10.0 -32.5 111.0 Percent 15.4 0.3 7.0 22.7 77.6 1980 Tons/day 59.0 29.0 9.0 3.0 100.0 Reductions Tons/day -12.0 -0.1 -5.6 -17.7 82.0 Percent 12.0 0.1 5.6 17.7 82.0 a Based on presently planned control oronrams b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980 Light Duty Motor Vehicle - (LDMV) Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV) ------- 2.4 Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR The Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR, also known as the Southeast Desert Air Basin is located in the southeast portion of California. It is comprised of all of Imperial County and the eastern portions of San Bernardino, Riverside, Kern, Los Angeles, and San Diego Counties. Geo- graphically, this AQCR covers some 33,600 square miles and is separated from the coastal regions by a series of mountain ranges. These mountains also serve as a climatalogical boundary. Elevations within the region vary from 235 feet below sea level at the Sal ton Sea to over 11,000 feet, at the peak of Mount San Gorgonio. Figure 2-17 presents a map of the region and its location within the State. By and large, the region is of low population density with approxi- mately 447,000 residents in 1970. Motor vehicle registrations for 1970 numbered slightly more than 300,000 with the vehicles consuming some 400 million gallons of gasoline and 14 million gallons of diesel fuel. In recent years, the NAAQS have been exceeded in numerous sites throughout this AQCR. Table 2-27 lists six locations in the region and the maximum recorded levels of oxidant and carbon monoxide for 1970-1971. The available data indicate that the N02 standard has not been exceeded. A listing of the air monitoring stations pollutants which are monitored is given in Table 2-28. Since the Southeast Desert is generally downwind of the South Coast Air Basin (Los Angeles region) considerable amounts of pollutants would be transported into the region and added to the locally generated pollu- tion. Explicitly finding what fraction of the Southeast Desert's air pollution is the result of transport and what portion results from acti- vities within the Basin would require a major research effort. Such a study is beyond the scope of this analysis. However, in an attempt to better understand the problem, an analysis was undertaken to determine the major source of the extremely high oxidant levels monitored within the region. 72 ------- Lancaste LOS ' ANlGELES SAN BERNARDINO •Victorvillc • Banning Palm Spring RIVERSIDE AN I IMPERIAL DIIEGO' «EI Centrp Son Bernardino • Riverside • Location Of Basin Source: California Air Resources Board Figure 2-17. Southeast Desert Intrastate AQCR 73 ------- TABLE 2-27. AIR QUALITY LEVELS MONITORED IN THE SOUTHEAST DESERT AQCR (1970-1971) Location Lancaster Banning Palm Springs Indio Bars tow Victorville ND - No recorded data NM - Not monitored Source: California Ai Oxidant 1970 0.06 0.46 NM NM 0.14 0.22 (1-Hr. Maximum) 1971 0.20 0.24 0.38 0.32 ND 0.14 CO 1970 12 NM NM NM NM NM (8 Hr. Maximum) 1971 9 NM 14 17 NM NM r Resources Board TABLE 2-28. PRINCIPAL AIR QUALITY MONITORING STATIONS SOUTHEAST DESERT INTRASTATE AQCR Location Lancaster Banning Palm Springs Indio Bars tow Victorville OX X X X X X X P 0 CO X X X Source: California L L NO X X X X Air U T A N02 X X X X N NO X X X X Resources T X HC X X Operator Los Angeles County APCD Riverside County APCD Riverside County APCD Riverside County APCD San Bernardino County San Bernardino County Board APCD APCD 74 ------- 2.4.1 The Transport Hypothesis Air quality monitoring stations in the Southeast Desert AQCR, in particular those in the Coachella Valley, record photochemical oxidant levels up to five times the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). Due to the severe air pollution in the South Coast Air Basin, it has frequently been hypothesized that pollution in these desert regions is the result of transport from the Los Angeles area; several arguments are presented here in support of this hypothesis. A cursory examination of the oxidant problem in the Southeast Desert Air Basin yields an intuitatively obvious answer that extreme oxidant levels result basically from influx of South Coast Air Basin pollution rather than from accumulation of local emissions. For one, it is well documented that the Southeast Desert Air Bassin lies directly downstream of the South Coast Air Basin during the photochemical smog season, i.e. summer and fall. During these periods, oxidant levels in the South Coast region sometimes reach up to six or seven times the NAAQS. The consistent meteorological pattern during the Southern California smog season is a relatively strong daytime sea breeze, typically 4-10 m.p.h., from 11 a.m. to 9 p.m. PDT.l During each day, this wind pattern continuously carries the air mass that has spent overnight and early morning in the South Coast area, into the Southeast Desert. Second, the transport hypothesis seems plausible because of the great difference in pollution potential between the South Coast and South- east Desert regions. Table 2-29 presents some comparative statistics for the Los Angeles and desert regions, as compiled by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). In light of the strikingly different emission densities for the two areas, it makes sense that much of the pollution monitored in the desert areas originates from the South Coast Air Basin. This pollution potential argument should be viewed with caustion, how- ever, since the emission sources in the Southeast Desert region are con- centrated in certain areas, e.g. the Coachella Valley, while much of the 33,000 square miles of the region is barren. 1. Neiburger, M. and Edinger, J., "Meteorology of the Los Angeles Basin," Report No. 1 of the Air Pollution Foundation, Southern California Air Pollution Foundation, 1954. 75 ------- TABLE 2-29. COMPARATIVE STATISTICS FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHEAST DESERT AIR BASINS (1970) Population (10 ) 2 Land area (10 sq. mi.) Population density (persons/sq. mi.) Motor Vehicles (106) Motor vehicle density (vehicle/sq.mi .) Daily emissions (Tons) Reactive hydrocarbons Nitrogen Oxides Emission Density (Tons/1000 sq. mi.) Reactive hydrocarbons Nitrogen Oxides South Coast Southeast Desert Density Density Factors Factors 9.7 8.68 >6 1790 1570 1120 ^690 206 181 0.48 33.6 0.3 86 112 14 8.9 2.6 3.3 Source: State of California, Air Resources Board, California Emission Inventory - 1970, July, 1972. Third, the transport hypothesis is supported by the opinions of local APCD workers who are familiar with the problem. Walter Hamming (L.A. County APCD), Mel Zeldin (San Bernardino County APCD), and Tony Hernandez s (Riverside County APCD) all concur that the Southeast Desert oxidant problem basically results from spillover from the South Coast Air Basin. However, air pollution control decisions for the Southeast Desert Air Basin should not be based on a cursory examination of probable source. It is possible, although not very probable, that the sources in the South- east Desert are concentrated enough and that the local meteorological dis- persive conditions are weak enough to allow local sources to play a great part in producing extreme oxidant values. 76 ------- To really ascertain what part of the oxidant problem in the South- east Desert is local and what part is transported would require a physio- chemical diffusion model which could calculate oxidant levels produced from any distribution of emission sources and any meteorology. Unfor- tunately, no accurate models of this type are available. In lieu of such a model, an examination of past air monitoring and meteorological data will be made here to check the transport hypothesis. Basically, several short analyses will be made: t The geographical pattern of time of maximal oxidant, as compiled from local APCD monitoring data, will be examined and inferences drawn. • Typical wind patterns will be presented and checked for consis- tency with the transport hypothesis. 2 • The Coachella Valley Air Quality Study by Pollution Research and Control Corporation will be briefly reviewed. This study was also undertaken to address the air pollution transport phenomena. 2.4.2 Geographical Pattern of Maximal Oxidant Time Figure 2-18 presents the geographical distribution of maximal oxidant times for the South Coast and Southeast Desert Air Basins during the early 1970s. The average time of maximal oxidant, for days with maximal oxidant exceeding 10 pphm, is given for various air monitoring stations. The data used for the calculations are basically for the months June through September, the photochemical smog season in Southern California. Persis- tent temperature inversions, high temperatures, and intense solar radia- tion during these months lead to higher oxidant readings than those typically found in other months. The most significant feature of Figure 2-18 is the increase in peak oxidant time with increasing distance inland. In the region within twenty miles of the coast, i.e., Reseda, Burbank, Los Angeles, West Los Angeles, Anaheim, and Long Beach, average oxidant peak times are all prior to 1:30 p.m., PDT. Slightly further inland, at the Newhall, Pasadena, El Monte, La Habre, and Pomona stations, average peak times vary from 1:30 to 2:30 p.m., PDT. In the western portion of the South Coast Air Basin, namely 2. Kauper, E. K., Coachella Valley Air Quality Study. Pollution Research and Control Corporation, Glendale, California, September 30, 1971. 3. Acknowledgement is due to Mel Zeldin of the San Bernardino County APCD for providing the basic idea and some of the data for this illustration. 77 ------- Barstow oo Lancaster (a) •4:30 VictorvUle (d) • 6:10 ^llf'r'}tf/s SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS t a^V>^:>^;>-so u r^x^^ " ' » tr»~*rt^*i*>•"". 'i « /*— . .u ^?. ,An/^r\ "•._*s. Palm Springs (c) • 7:40 Indlo (c) X^X,, \_ ^ x A ^ XJ^\ ^ ">» ""^ *™\ ^ *^\ ^*>.»-v^v*\_l. A \ •» > -*^\^\—s--.-^.--^'-*^.>-i-.«, x_\_v > * •« A •»--%—*—,—.— — - Figures-is. Geographical Distribution of Average Time of Oxidant Peak (pm/PDT) ------- (Averages are for the five days of highest maximal oxldant at each station in 1971 and 1972) 32 28 ~ 24 S" Q. ~ 20 § 16 X o UJ 13 10 UJ - VICTORVILLE LANCASTER DOWNTOWN L.A. 10 12 2 NOON TIME OF DAY (POT) 10 12 Figure 2-19. Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the Upper Southeast Desert and for Downtown Los Angeles ------- San Bernardino and Riverside, average oxidant peak times occur between 3:00 and 4:00 p.m. Further inland still, as the Southeast Desert is reached, the average oxidant times varied from 4:30 at Lancaster to 9:00 at Indio. This geographic oxidant peak pattern is indicative of pollution trans- port. Areas toward the west apparently have earlier oxidant peaks be- cause these areas are the first to have the polluted air of the central South Coast Basin replaced by the cleaner marine air of the daily sea breeze. Areas toward the eastern part of the South Coast Air Basin have later oxidant peaks because they receive much of the most polluted air later in the day; that is, air which has been nearer the coast during the night and early morning and which has moved across the South Coast Air Basin during the day. In the Southeast Desert, peak oxidants occur extremely late (4:30 to 9:00 p.m.) and are evidently associated with influx of the most polluted South Coast Basin air. These late peak times attest to transport of oxidant pollution rathern than local formation because they occur after solar radiation intensity, which powers the photochemical reactions, has waned. To further substantiate that the oxidant problem in the Southeast Desert basically results from influx from the South Coast Basin, it should be shown that the oxidant peaks are significantly higher than oxidant levels at other times during the day. Figures 2-19 and 2-20 give the diurnal oxidant pattern at five continuous monitoring stations in the Southeast Desert, and for comparison, at downtown Los Angeles. For each station, the diurnal pattern is averaged over the five highest oxidant days for that station during the years 1971 and 1972. All five desert stations show a very significant peak in the late afternoon or evening. This corresponds to the expected arrival time of air parcels from the South Coast Basin moved by the daily sea breeze at about 6-7 miles per hour. These peaks are significantly higher than levels late in the morning which result from irradiation of the air mass that has spent overnight in the area and might be more indicative of local pollu- tion. However, it should be noted that even the overnight air would have 80 ------- (Averages are for the five days of highest maximal oxidant at each station in 1971 and 1972) CO o. 0. 32 28 24 20 X ,, o 16 12 8 4 INDIO PALM SPRINGS BANNING DOWNTOWN L.A. 10 12 2 NOON TIME OF DAY (PDT) 10 12 Figure 2-20. Diurnal Oxidant Patterns for Monitoring Stations in the Lower Southeast Desert and for Downtown Los Angeles ------- spent the previous day in the South Coast Air Basin and could have resi- dual oxidant precursors originating from the South Coast region as well as new precursors from the local area. The marked intensity of the evening peak attests to the most significant portion of the Southeast Desert oxidant being the result of transport from the South Coast Air Basin. A striking contrast exists between the patterns for oxidant buildup in Los Angeles and the Southeast Desert. Los Angeles, with high accumu- lation of local emissions overnight, starts to reach significant oxidant levels in the later morning as solar radiation becomes intense. An oxi- dant peak is attained at about noon. The sea breeze then brings in rela- tively clean marine air and during the afternoon oxidant levels decline. After the sun sets, oxidant levels are suppressed to below the natural background (about 3-5 pphm) by accumulation of NO emissions which immediately react with ozone. In the Southeast Desert, oxidant starts toward a peak as the sun sets! The peak is reached, on the average, between 4:30 (at Lancaster) and 9:00 (at Indio). However, on some nights, the peak has occurred as late as midnight at Indio. Local NO emissions are not great enough to consume much oxidant during the night, and considerable oxidant levels persist during the early morning hours, especially in the Coachella Valley. A slight rise occurs with the onset of sunlight each morning. However, this rise soon levels off, and it is not until late afternoon or early evening that oxidant pollution will again reach extreme values. 2.4.3 Typical Wind Patterns The sea breeze dominates the typical daylight wind pattern in Southern California during the summer and early fall. Winds, flowing from the west, sweep across the South Coast Basin in an easterly or northeasterly direc- tion and enter the Southeast Desert after transversing the mountain passes. Figure X-5 illustrates this consistent meteorological pattern. Assuming that a typical South Coast Basin air parcel stagnates over- night and during the early morning and then is carried inland by a 7 mph 4. U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Air Quality Criteria for Photochemical Oxidants. March, 1970. 82 ------- 09 JS Source: State of California, The Resources Agency, Air Resources Board, The State of Caliform'a Implementation Plan for Achieving and Maintaining the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, January 30, 1972. Figure2-21. Air Flow Patterns - South Coast Air Basin (October 1200-1800 PST) ------- sea breeze starting at 11:00, and further assuming that the air flows in the general direction shown in Figure 2-21, the following possibilities arise. The air in Lancaster at 4:30, the time of average oxidant peak, could have stagnated overnight in the San Fernando Valley. With a slightly higher wind speed, it could have arrived from the Ventura-0 Oxnard area. The air in Victorville at 6:10 probably originated from somewhere in the central SCAB, with origins in all four counties -- Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside -- being possible. The air in Banning at 6:20, Palm Springs at 7:40, or Indio at 9:00 most likely also came from somewhere in the central South Coast Air Basin; again, origins in all four counties are possible. Thus, the mechanism certainly exists for transporting South Coast Air Basin oxidant pollution to the Southeast Desert. In fact, the typical wind pattern during the photochemical smog season is such that the South- east Desert lies directly downstream of the South Coast Basin during the day and early evening. This wind pattern is entirely consistent with the findings presented previously, that maximum oxidant occurs late in the afternoon or early in the evening in the Southeast Desert and that this oxidant is transported, rather than locally formed. 2.4.4 The Coachella Valley Air Quality Study by Pollution Research and Control Corporation From July 1970 to July 1971, Pollution Research and Control Corporation (PRCC) performed an air quality monitoring project in the Coachella Valley of the Southeast Desert under contract to the Riverside County APCD and with partial funding by the U. S. Public Health Service. The main objec- tive of this project was to determine the source of high oxidant pollu- tion in the Coachella Valley. As noted above (see Table 2-27) the three continuous monitoring stations in the Coachella Valley record maximal 1-hour oxidant levels several times the NAAQS and almost twice as high as levels found at the other two continuous stations (Lancaster and Victorville) in the Southeast Desert. 84 ------- The project consisted of a series of simultaneous measurements of meteorological factors and air quality. Weather parameters were measured at ground stations, during aircraft flights, and with balloon soundings. Ground stations and aircraft flight also provided the air pollution data. The data were analyzed by constructing pollution and weather frequency distributions, wind roses, backward air trajectories, and atmospheric cross sections. The analysis led to the conclusion that the source of high oxidant levels in the Coachella Valley is apparently emissions from the South Coast Air Basin. Of the 18 air parcels which showed maximum oxidant greater than or equal to .12 ppm and for which reliable trajectories were constructed, 17 had arrived in the Coachella Valley through the San Gorgonio Pass from the South Coast Air B sin. The one other trajectory arrived from the northerly direction, although before coming from the north, it too likely transversed the South Coast Air Basin. Trajectories typical of those associated with high oxidant levels are shown in Figure 2-22. With regard to the transport phenomena, the following pertinent exerpts have been taken from the PRCC study: "With respect to the photochemical air pollution problem, it is apparent that the Coachella Valley is subject to intrusion of the aged photochemical pollution cloud from the coastal area of Southern California. The local automotive traffic source does not appear to be of sufficient strength to explain the measured values, especially since the levels of oxides of nitrogen recorded in the Valley are low." "Characteristically, the high oxidant was found associated with the appearance of northwesterly winds in the Coachella Valley. This condition usually occurs in the late afternoon or evening, both at the upper and lower Coachella sampling stations; the time of arrival being earlier at the upper station. The trajectories associated with this situation showed that the pollutants moved across the mountain boundary separating the Coachella Valley from the coastal valleys to the west." 85 ------- 00 COACH6.LLA o « 1 » * Numbers at dot locations refer to the time parcel was at indicated location: 1900 = 1900 PST. Maximum oxidant (ppm) indicated at sampling station location. Figure 2-22. Trajectories of Air Arriving at 2000 and 2100 PST, July 27, 1970 ------- "The intrusion of the oxidant pollution cloud from the north- west is typical of the state of the atmosphere in the Coachella Valley during late afternoon in the summer. The polluted air moves down from San Gorgonio Pass with the low level northwesterly wind. The air mass over the desert is relatively unstable. The edge of the polluted mass is sharply defined, presenting almost a vertical front as it moves across the Valley." 2.4.5 Conclusion Based on the available information cited, several conclusions can be drawn with regard to the origins of high oxidant concentrations in the Southeast Desert region. Although several of the arguments presented are based on inferences, rather than actual scientific evidence, there is significant data which supports the hypothesis that air pollution in the South Coast Air Basin is transported and contributes substantially to high oxidant levels in the desert areas east of Los Angeles. A summary of this support evidence is given below: • The difference in the pollutant emission densities for the two regions would suggest much lower oxidant readings for the Southeast Desert than actually experienced. Given similar meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature inversions, intense solar radiation, wind conditions), only a spillover of pollutants from the South Coast area into the Southeast Desert adequately explains the high oxidant values. • Typical wind patterns observed are consistent with the timing of maximal oxidant levels in the Southeast Desert. The time of maximum oxidant peaks occurs too late to be accounted for by locally, generated emissions since the solar radiation required to trigger the photochemical reactions has either diminished greatly or disappeared. t The difference in timing of observed maximum oxidant levels between the South Coast and Southeast Desert Air Basins is consistent with the typical wind patterns; oxidant levels peak around noon or the early afternoon in the South Coast areas and late afternoon or evening in the Southeast Desert. • Other studies, including The Coachella Valley Air Quality Study, have similarly concluded that air pollution is trans- ported into the Southeast Desert from the South Coast Air Bas in. • The local air pollution control personnel contacted all agreed that pollution problems in the desert regions were largely attributable to transport phenomena. 87 ------- 3.0 SUMMARY OF IMPACTS 3.1 Economic Impacts The estimated costs of controls which require hardware and/or services are summarized in this section. Table 3-1 is a summary of estimated unit costs in each control category. Table 3-2 contains the estimated costs to each region due to the various control strategies. TABLE 3-1. ESTIMATED UNIT COSTS OF CONTROL MEASURES Control Measure Bulk terminal vapor recovery system Gasoline Marketing Vapor Recovery System Inspection/maintenance Idle test (1975) Loaded test (1977) VSAD/LIAF retrofit for pre-'66 LDV Catalytic converter retrofit Unit Bulk loading termi nal Service Station Automobile n Automobile Automobile Cost Initial $200,000 $ 6,300 1.21 1.98 35.00 175.00 Annual 0 30.00 5.12 10.23 0 0 3.2 Social Impacts Social impacts are non-monetary costs attributable to the imposition of a set of constraints. These impacts are generally measured by the loss of time, opportunity, and/or inconvenience. The magnitude of the impacts is primarily a function of age, race, and income level. Measures which are intended to influence, control, or restrict the ownership and use of motor vehicles will, in general, result in social impacts. In a similar and related manner, measures which affect personal mobility, mode choice decisions, and regional access also induce social costs. To date, due to the very nature of social impacts, it has been difficult to quantitatively evaluate them. For example, only a limited amount of research has been devoted to estimating lost-opportunity costs with respect to not making a trip. However, several studies involving Los Angeles have been published in attempts to quantify these impacts in a particular locale. Data from ------- TABLE 3-2 ESTIMATED REGIONAL COSTS FOR EACH MEASURE CONTROL MEASURE SAN FRANCISCO SAN JOAQUIN SACRAMENTO bulk terminal vapor recovery $6,000,000 gasoline marketing controls initial 31,200,000 $15,851,000 $ 7,119,000 annual . 274,000 209,000 188,000 inspection/maintenance Idle test initial 3,538,000 756,000 810,000 annual 15,000,000 3,202,000 3,434,000 Loaded test (additional cost over idle test cost) initial 2,582,000 524,000 590,000 annual 14,920,000 3,107,000 3,419,000 VSAD/LIAF retrofit . 22,400,000 5,192,000 5,709,000 catalytic converter retrofit 188,000,000 38,236,000 41,383,000 TOTAL COST (including loaded I/M) initial $253,720,000 $60,559,000 $55,611,000 annual 30,194,000 6,518,000 7,041,000 Per Capita Cost initial $51 $56 $55 annual 7 7 7 89 ------- these studies have been used in the following discussion, under the assumption that a reasonable number of similarities between Los Angeles and each of the three major urban areas exists for quantitative impact evaluation. It will be important for APCD's and planning agencies to anticipate and minimize the impact of controls where possible. Increased public awareness and concern have been largely responsible for the desires to live in a clean environment. In addition, public participation in the decision making process will continue" to be crucial to the orderly transition and acceptability of various controls. To be meaningful, citizen participation must be encouraged at the local and county levels. Only then can the final decisions concerning which controls are applicable for a given region be complete and a reflection of the public's desires; this in turn will result in minimizing the social impacts. 3.2.1 Stationary Source Measures and Vehicle-Oriented Mobile Source Measures The per capita costs of the stationary source control measures and the vehicle-oriented control measures recommended in this study have been shown to be nominal. The actual distribution of the vehicle costs may tend to be socially regressive, in that the poor elements of the population experience a heavier burden by comparison when required to pay the costs of retrofit devices and vehicle maintenance. For example, the cost of the pre-1966 retrofit measure and the maintenance cost of vehicles rejected during the inspection procedure are most likely to affect the poor more strongly than the middle class and the rich, since the poor are more likely to own the older and poorly maintained veh.icles. The total of these two costs, as estimated in Section 3-1. are significant compared to the probable market value of the vehicles in these categories in 1975 and 1977. Redistribution of these costs has been the subject of numerous research efforts in the state of California. Among the recent proposals for consideration are the following alternative payment schemes: t User-Pays ~ the cost of a control strategy is totally assumed by the owners of the vehicles affected. 90 ------- t Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle-Mile-Driver -- the total annualized regional costs are divided by the annual vehicle miles driven. This could be monitored by annual odometer readings during registration, for example. • Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle -- the total annualized regional costs are divided by the number of light duty vehicles in the basin. Each vehicle owner then pays an identical amount per vehicle. Payment could be made by a uniform increase in vehicle registration fees. • Uniform-Payment-Per-Unit of Pollution Emitted -- costs for automotive pollution is proportional to pollution emitted, i.e. a form of a "smog" tax. Administered through inspection/maintenance and annual registration cycle. Individual costs become a function of mileage and exhaust characteristics. • Income-Proportional -- payment of the control strategy is made on a scale that is directly proportional to income. For this scheme, every- one in the region - not just those owning vehicles - is responsible for financing the additional controls. In the above list, the user pays scheme must be regarded as the most regressive. That is, the vehicle ownership by model year is suffi- ciently biased that the largest burden rests on the group with the smallest income. Conversely, the income proportional scheme is the least regressive in this sense. 3.2.2 Impact on Mobility Patterns Among the control measures being recommended are those which will directly impact existing mobility patterns, or when and where people travel. These measures are dealt with in the following discussions. The magnitude of the social impact to be expected from any measures depend heavily on regional characteristics. Present driving patterns have evolved slowly and intuition suggests these patterns will show a high degree of resistance to change. 3.2.2.1 Reducing Optional Trips When a person makes a trip from one location to another, it is done to serve some human need or desire. The choice of travel mode, as well 91 ------- as the actual decision to travel, both involve a human decision process. Both decisions are probably made rationally with due consideration for a number of actual and apparent factors. The ability of various individuals to accurately assess these factors varies, but overall, incorrect judg- ments in both directions tend to offset each other. Upon consideration of the actual and perceived factors relating to a trip, the individual decides whether or not to make the trip and by which mode to travel. Once the decision has been made to make the trip,, to eliminate or prohibit this trip would mean that some need would be unmet or purpose unfulfilled. It must be emphasized that attempting to define which travel is optional or unnecessary is difficult. One obvious difficulty involves the definitions of terms such as, "necessary, optional, and essential;" Since we are dealing with personal value judgments, what one individual views as unnecessary may be considered very essential to another individual. Even for the same individual and the same trip, circumstances frequently change so that the individual's perception of the need to make the trip change. Another difficulty encountered in assessing individual needs is the dynamic state of decision making as it relates to human values with the passage of time. The steady growth of VMT experienced since World War II has in large part been attributable to an improved quality of life. This affluence has resulted in a higher standard of living with an increased ability to afford more travel and more time to partake of it. What was once the Sunday afternoon drive in the park has now become the weekend excursion to the resort areas. In order to even approximate what level of trip making is optional or marginally necessary, it is necessary to superimpose one set of human values upon another. The imposition of new values upon others will always result in social costs to the individuals affected. The magnitude of these costs are related to the severity of the constraints and the individual's ability to adapt to the constraints. It is apparent, therefore, that caution be exercised in carefully weighing the societal costs associated with the gains to be derived and the degree of controls needed to attain any desired level of VMT reduction. A number of factors enter into any decision concerning whether or not a trip should be undertaken. For example, a ghetto family without a 92 ------- car will make fewer trips overall than an upper class family which has three cars at its disposal. In this case, the differences in opportunity will define the trip making characteristics and needs. Because of dif- ferences in household characteristics and physical environments, eliminating identical trips are perceived to have significantly different impact depending on the groups experiencing the impact. Controls which will result in trip reductions should not only consider trips intended for basic functions as working and shipping, but also the human needs for recreation and relaxation. 3.2.3 Impact on Accessibility In many of the regions discussed here, it can be.said that "to have a job, you must have a car and to have a car, you must have a job." This relationship of employment opportunities (especially for certain minorities) to transportation has been alluded to previously. The trans- portation system control measures recommended in this study will have a definite impact on accessibility and, consequently, they will result in social impacts. In general, it is estimated that impacts from accessibility-restrictive measures are minor and can be very positive. The intent is generally to penalize private transportation while favoring public transit. In addition to being conservation-oriented, such schemes tend to favor many of the underprivileged population segments. 3.2.4 Impact on Mode Choice Decisions Numerous factors affect an individual's choice of travel mode. Those relating to the individual include age, sex, and income. Equally important are variables dealing with the individual's environmental surroundings -- land use patterns and transportation systems. Land use patterns,and trends are such that choices of modes other than the auto- mobile are inherently discouraged. Experience has shown that additional important factors in mode choice decision-making are related to the transportation system and its performance characteristics. Basically, the parameters which determine mode choice are the time and money associated with the trip. Viewing the trip in terms of time and money, making the trip requires a certain- economic cost. Obviously, the traveler will attempt to reduce the actual and perceived costs. 93 ------- Most of the controls being considered increase the cost of private automobile travel and/or reduce the cost of public transportation. The purpose, of course, is to induce higher percentages of people onto public transit. While aiding those dependent on transit services, measures which make it more expensive to drive tend to be regressive. As such, the social impacts experienced will be more heavily felt by the poor. It has been shown that time costs are frequently a more serious penalty to the middle and high income groups. Consequently, measures which result in time penalties, e.g., ramp metering, exclusive bus and carpool lanes, are often more effective at inducing transit ridership than monetary fees. From an equity standpoint, these controls are highly desirable since the poor place less value on their time. As a result, one would expect a more uniform mode shift by income groups from such controls. The result of the recommended control measures on mode choice decisions will generally favor more extensive public transit usage. Socially, the impacts will initially be viewed as inconveniences and to a limited extent, a loss of personal mobility. In the long run, as adjustments are made to new life styles, these impacts will have been appreciably diminished. 3.2.5 Summary of Social Impacts Table 3-3 presents a summary of the overall social impacts likely to occur as a function of the control measures. Estimates for the extent of the overall impacts are intended to present a relative index and have to be qualified by some rather simplifying assumptions. For example, it was assumed that the young, old, poor and minorities owned old cars (if any), drove primarily out of necessity, and placed little value on their time. The "average" American, however, was viewed as relatively mobile, the owner of at least one car, and someone who placed a high value on his time. The impacts on mobility were considered to be those which impeded when trips would be made and what types of trips would be made; these effects were related directly to the typical urban driving patterns. Accessibility impacts are those which restrict where one goes and the ease with which the trips can be made. 94 ------- TABLE 3-3. SUMMARY OF SOCIAL IMPACTS Control Measure Phase I Measures (Recommended) Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control Organic Surfacing Coating Substitution Dry Cleaning Vapor Control Degreaser Substitution Burning Regulation Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance Aircraft Controls Oxidizing Catalytic Converter Pre-1966 Retrofit Device Improvement of Public Transit Increased Car Pooling Parking Control Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted) Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing Impact on Sodo-Economic Young/ Elderly Poor Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 — — + 0 0 0 — 0 0 ' — 0 0 0 0 0 " 0 — — + 0 0 0 0 0 0 — — 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 — -- + o • 0 0 0 0 0 — -- Groups Average Citizen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - 0 - - 0 - 0 0 - - Impact on Mobility 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + - - 0 - 0 0 0 -- Impact on Accessibility 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + 0 - 0 - 0 0 0 0 Impact on Mode - Choice Decision Private Public Auto Transit 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 — -- 0 - - 0 0 0 0 -- — 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ++ • + + 0 .0 0 0 0 0 en LEGEND (RELATIVE IMPACTS) •H- Very Favorable + Favorable 0 Very Minor or None - Unfavorable -- Very Unfavorable ------- Lastly, a summary of the impact on mode choice decisions is given. This considered the relative effect a given measure would have on the attractiveness of the predominant transportation modes, i.e., the private auto and public transit. For each control measure, there are usually several kinds of programs which can be instituted and even more ways of implementing them. In many cases, the means by which a program is implemented can significantly affect the degree of social impacts encountered. To illustrate this point, several examples are considered below. o Retrofit devices are shown to have a very unfavorable impact on the young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This has assumed these groups have old cars which are not used much and which require expensive retrofits, e.g., catalytic converters. If individuals in these groups had no car or the government provided subsidies to finance the retrofits, the impacts would be completely different. o Pricing schemes are also shown to have regressive impacts on the young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This assumes relatively uniform fee or taxing policies on all groups. As discussed in Section 3.1.2, a host of methods are available to insure a more equitable distribution of pollution control costs. Institution of such financing schemes would change the overall impacts on special population groups. o Gasoline rationing is noted as a very unfavorable impact on the young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This assumes a free market situation where gasoline is limited at the distributor level and the price is allowed to seek its own level. The net result would be almost equivalent to uniform taxing policies. Those less able to afford gas would be priced off the road. If, however, a rationing system was established allocating equal shares of gas to all vehicles at fixed prices, the social impacts would be significantly changed and more'favorable. 3.3 Public Attitude Surveys Critical to the evaluation of the social impacts of the various proposed control measures are surveys of public attitude toward such measures. Since the passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970, numerous surveys have been conducted throughout California for this very purpose. 96 ------- A recent California Poll (Time Magazine, July 16, 1973) revealed that: • 62% of Californians are in favor of building rail rapid transit lines, even at an increased tax cost of $100/year/family. t 62% back the much criticized Clean Air Act of 1970, even if Detroit is threatened with partial shutdowns for failure to meet the law's strict requirements. • 55% favor the law's requirement that cars and trucks have antipollution devices, even if those devices cost $300 per car. • 55% think that the schedule for installing effective exhaust control equipment by 1976 is "about right"; another 27% think the schedule is "too slow." • 76% rejected the notion of closing off certain freeways to discourage "excessive driving." • 56% oppose a drastic slowdown in the state's freeway building program. The results of a survey taken in San Francisco, Sacramento, Stockton, Fresno, and Bakersfield, in conjunction with this study, revealed the following: (See Appendix A for detailed results). • About 80-90 percent of all respondents in all cities feel auto air pollution is a serious or very serious nationwide problem. This feeling is highest in Fresno (89%) and lowest in Sacramento (81%). • Respondents in all five cities feel that auto air pollution is a more serious problem nationwide than it is locally. • A law requiring auto emission control equipment on all pre-1975 cars is much more acceptable at a government subsidized cost of $50 than a non-government subsidized cost of $125. Regardless of the cost, this law is viewed more favorably by respondents in Fresno. A law requiring inspection of this equipment is viewed more favorably by respondents in Fresno and Bakersfield. Respondents in all cities would expect to pay at least $7.00 for the inspection; the maximum expected cost is $9.32. • In all cities the two most acceptable proposals (based on mean ratings) for controlling auto air pollution are "prohibit traffic/parking in central business districts" 97 ------- and "create car pool/bus only lanes on major thoroughfares." The two most unacceptable are $200 registration fee for each auto" and "have tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares." Respondents were also asked to indicate which proposals were most/least acceptable. These data are consistent with the mean ratings except that "gasoline rationing" replaced "have tolls on exit ramps" as one of the two most unacceptable proposals. • The most acceptable proposal for combating a possible gasoline shortage is to limit purchases to 90 percent of current consumption. Least acceptable are proposals to double the price of gasoline and to impose an emission tax of $15 per thousand miles traveled. • Interest in car pools as a means of reducing auto air pollution ranges from 41-48 percent of the respondents in each city, except Bakersfield. However, in the latter city, where the level of interest is 31%, more respondents are already in a car pool or do not travel to work by car. A majority of respondents in all cities feel getting into a car pool would be difficult. • Rating of proposals for reducing traffic congestion varied by the city. Those rated most effective included "improving timing of traffic signals" and "prohibiting parking, loading, and unloading on busy streets." Among those considered least effective was "widening major streets at intersections." • Public transportation usage is highest in San Francisco (94 trips per household per year). The remaining cities are much lower in usage (ranging from 10-28 trips). • Reasons for public transportation usage vary by city. In San Francisco, it is used because it's cheaper and less congested. In Sacramento, it's used because it's cheaper and because the user does not have a driver's license. In the San Joaquin Valley cities, it is used by women and children out of necessity (no car available or no driver's license). Men in the San Joaquin Valley said they use public transportation because it is faster, more available, and more comfortable. t Reasons for auto usage are the same in all cities -- faster, more flexible, more available. 0 In general, the most effective proposals for encouraging usage of public transportation facilities are: more 98 ------- frequent service, faster travel, more conveniently located stops and stations, and lower fares. t In all cities, there is a substantial reluctance (67 percent or higher) to dispose of any car or cars even if public transportation were improved. 99 ------- 4.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION This section deals with the implementation of the control strategies proposed in this report. Discussion is confined to two areas: the procedure and time schedule for implementation of the strategies, and the responsibilities of the government agencies which will be involved in their implementation. 4.1 Procedure and Time Schedule The proposed time schedule for implementation of the control strategy is given in Table 4-1. The dates shown for promulgation of the plan are those prescribed by Federal law. Legislative authority for the recommended Phase I measures must be obtained by the end of 1973; gasoline rationing legislation should be obtained by the end of 1975. As the table indicates, all gasoline marketing facilities should be controlled to the extent recommended by mid-1975. That is, existing facilities should be retrofit with appropriate control systems by that date, and all new facilities built after that date should be required to include control systems in their construction. A development program for substitutes for organic surface coating compounds is currently underway and should be continued. The use of less reactive substitutes should be expanded, beginning in 1974. Carbon adsorption systems effective to the degree recommended in this study are currently available and should be installed at all dry cleaning estab- lishments during 1974. Likewise, available substitutes for organic degreasers should be implemented during 1974. Burning regulations, to some degree, have already been instituted by the county APCD's. The additional regulation recommended in this study should be in effect through 1980. The three vehicle-oriented control measures are Mandatory Inspection/ Maintenance, Oxidizing Catalytic Converter, and Pre-1966 Retrofit Device. The first part of the inspection/maintenance program, the idle test with the 10% rejection rate, should be carried out during 1975 and 1976. This means that all light duty vehicles in each affected county should be inspected (and 10% should be maintained) during the year 1975 and again 100 ------- TABLE 4-1. PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIME SCHEDULE Element Promulgation of Control Strategy Plan . • Proposed Control Strategy Plan • Public Hearings on Plan; Review and Evaluation of Comments t Promulgation of Final Control Strategy Plan (15 August 1973) Legislative Authority Required for Controls California Air Resources Board • • • Obtain enabling legislation for Inspection of maintenance • Obtain enabling legislation for additional retrofit devices, e.g. catalytic converters • Obtain enabling legislation to ration gasoline Phase I Measures (Recommended) Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls 0 Establish necessary regulations • Initiate program of controlling losses from gasoline marketing • All marketing facilities controlled Organic Surface Coating Substitution . » k -j • Development OT alternatives (e*g. water*Daseu or high solid control formulation) • Expand use of less reactive substitutes Dry Cleaning Vapor Control .• Implement Carbon Absorption Systems Degreaser Substitution • Implement substitution 1973 4 ]. A : A 1974 : t 1 1 , , ^ k— 1975 < -^ T — ^ ^ 1976 > 1977 • 1978 1979 1980 ------- o ro Element Burning Regulation • Agricultural 4 t Incineration 4 Aircraft Emission Control • Establish necessary regulations Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance • Program Design • Program Preparation •' Mandatory Loaded Emission Inspection Oxldlzlm Catalytic Converter • Installation Program Pre-1966 Retrofit Device t Installation Program Mass Transit Program • Improve levels of service ' • Establish bus and carpool lanes on freeways where feasible • Establish park-and-r1de facilities where feasible 19 k ! ' — 73 A- : - ; i A -A A- A ^~ k r k k 374 , ' - 1 - ^ - 1 . ' \ * - , 975 - I 193 k 6 ^ A * 197 k I • ••"• 7 197 8 197 9 19£ 0 ------- Element ' Phase II Measures (if demonstrate y warranted) Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit YWT Reduction through Gasoline Rationing 1973 1974 1975 - 1976 A- 4 t -A t t -At 1977 b A- • -* 1978 A- -A 1979 A- * -A 1980 ------- during 1976. In 1977 and every year thereafter, all light duty vehicles should be inspected using a loaded test, and 50% of them should be required to receive maintenance. The installation of the oxidizing catalytic converter should take place between mid-1974 and mid-1975. The pre-1966 retrofit device should be installed during 1974. The transportation system-oriented measures recommended for implementation should begin in 1974 and should continue through 1980. It is recommended that an aggressive public information program be instituted in 1974 to encourage and advertise increased use of car pooling. Car pooling should be coordinated among employees at work centers in the urban centers beginning in mid-1974. Construction of parking facilities should be limited as soon as possible, preferably by the end of 1973. Long-term parking rates should be increased by the middle of 1974. All Phase II measures should be implemented by 1977, if it is demonstrated that they can be effective and that they are necessary. The elimination of motorcycle use during smog season and gasoline rationing involve relatively difficult institutional and administrative problems and should be begun in 1976, so that these kinds of problems are obviated by 1977 for maximum effectiveness of the measures in that year. 4.2 Agency Involvement Table 4-2 gives the agency responsible for the implementation of each of the control measures recommended in this study. The sections of the California Health and Safety Code which provide the respective agencies with the authority for implementation of the measures are listed in the table also. It can be observed that the county APCD's have the authority to implement all recommended stationary source controls. All that remains in each case is for the Air Pollution Control Board of each agency to pass or modify appropriate rules and regulations for use within each of the counties. • Vehicle-oriented mobile source controls, on the other hand, require new .legislation, with the one exception being the pre-1966 retrofit device. This device is already required in three air basins -- the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco. Authority has been given to all APCD's in the state for implementation of this measure. Thus, each of the APCD's in 104 ------- TABLE 4-2. AGENCY RESPONSIBILITY FOR CONTROL MEASURE IMPLEMENTATION Measure Responsible Agency Authorizing Legislation (Sections of California Health and Safety Code) Phase I Stationary Source Controls Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control Dry Cleaning Vapor Control Degreaser Substitution Organic Surface Coating Control Mobile Source Controls Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance Oxidizing Catalytic Converter Pre-1966 Retrofit Device Transportation System Controls and Improvements Aircraft Controls Phase II Stationary Source Controls Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls Mobile Source Controls Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/ Maintenance Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit Gasoline Rationing Evaporative Retrofit Device Additional Retrofit Devices APCD APCD APCD APCD CARB CARB/APCD APCD County/City Government FAA/EPA APCD CARB CARB CARB/APCD CARB CARB/APCD CARB/APCD 24260, 24260. 24260, 24260. 24260, 24260. 24260, 24260. TBL TBL 24263.8 24260, 24260 TBL TBL TBL TBL TBL TBL 1 1 1 1 .1 TBL: To be legislated 105 ------- the affected regions needs to pass an appropriate rule requiring these devices on light duty motor vehicles. Effective devices of this type have, of course, been accredited by the CARB. Authorizing legislation must be passed for the other two vehicle- oriented measures. The CARB will be responsible for the mandatory inspection/maintenance program, while, if the oxidizing catalytic converter is required in only part of the APCD's of the state (as is likely), it will be the responsibility of each APCD to implement necessary rules, and, therefore, all APCD's must have the authority by state law to implement the measure. Thus, two types of legislation must be passed for implemen- tation of the catalytic converter measure* state legislative authority and APCD rules, pending, of course, CARB accreditation of catalytic converter devices. Transportation system controls and improvements in Phase I do not involve the requirement for major authorizing legislation. In each case, it will require the appropriate division of the local city and county governments to implement or modify regulations and to impose, where necessary, procedural constraints and encouragements. Stationary source measures in Phase II, as in Phase I, require no additional authorizing legislation. On the other hand, mobile source controls in Phase II all must be legislated. All will likely be at least the partial responsibility of the CARB, although like the catalytic converter, it is likely that the legal requirement for the three retrofit measures in Phase II will actually be the authority of each APCD and that each APCD will have the responsibility, after accreditation of hardware by the CARB, to implement the measures in its jurisdictional area. It is assumed for the present that gasoline rationing will be within the authority of the CARB, although the actual legal requirements of this controversial measure are vague. 106 ------- 5.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION The relative significance of obstacles to implementation of the proposed control strategy has been estimated using the following definitions of obstacle categories: Technical obstacles - obstacles involving the design of hardware, details of administrative procedure, or specification of standards or acceptance limits necessary for implementing recommended control measures. Political obstacles - obstacles involving the feasibility of productive interaction among appropriate leaders, administrators, legislators, and special interest groups for the purpose of instituting recommended control measures. Institutional obstacles - obstacles involving the opposition of institutions required by the plan with those already in existence, and necessary adjustment thereof. Socio-economic obstacles - obstacles involving the impact of control measures on the public, commerce, and industry. 5.1 Phase I Measures 5.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures • Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control - This control may meet minor legislative and socio-economic obstacles. Necessary laws and regulations are easily specified since there is a large backlog of feasibility studies and investigations involving this measure, and since several APCD's in the state have already instituted requirements for a similar measure and can serve as a model. There should be very little socio-economic impact due to this measure. The cost of changes in gasoline refining and marketing will indeed be passed on to the consumer, but the actual cost increase per gallon should be small. Public convenience should be little affected; consequently, minimal adverse public reaction is expected for this measure. The design and development of hardware for evaporative control systems at the filling stations and on tank trucks may provide a moderate technical obstacle. These technical obstacles must be met by the oil companies of California, since it will be their responsibility to select appropriate methods for meeting the proposed standards for gasoline evaporative control. As a result, their reaction to the proposal for the evaporative emission control 107 ------- measure is expected to present a moderate political obstacle to implementation. • Organic Surface Coating Substitution - This measure should encounter no political or institutional obstacles. It will encounter some technical obstacles, in that substitutes such as water-based coatings, high solids content coatings, and powdered coatings are currently under development and require lengthy testing before promising formulas can be used commercially. A minor legal obstacle is anticipated in writing rules which require the recommended degrees of control by 1975 and 1977. Small changes in the price of the product may create minor socio-economic obstacles. • Dry Cleaning Vapor Control - The principle of carbon adsorption has been proven as an effective means of controlling evaporative losses of solvents from dry cleaning, and the required hardware is available. Thus, no technical obstacles are anticipated. The local APCD's have the authority to implement such controls, and no institutional obstacles are expected. The only legal obstacle to overcome is the appropriate local rule making, and it should be minor. No political or socio-economic obstacles are expected. • Degreaser Substitution - Acceptable non-reactive substitutes for current degreaser solvents exist and should encounter no major obstacles to implementation by 1975. Rulemaking may present a minor legal obstacle. • Burning Regulations - Burning restrictions have already been instituted to some degree, and it is anticipated that more extensive regulation will not meet significant obstacles. 5.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures • Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance - Part I - Idle test, ten percent rejection rate. Part I of this measure is technically simple, and requires little more developmental or design effort than has already gone into the random state lane inspection already in existence in California. No institutional obstacles are anticipated, since the Department of Motor Vehicles can include inspection/maintenance certification as part of vehicle registration requirements, much as it does with retrofit devices. Furthermore, this measure may 108 ------- encounter few legal or political obstacles, particularly if a current bill requiring inspection and maintenance in the South Coast Air Basin (Assembly Bill 380) passes both houses and is signed by the Governor. Legislation will remain a potential obstacle, since four similar bills in 1972 and 1973 have not passed the legislature and the administration. Socio-economic obstacles should be minor. • Part II - Loaded test. 50 percent rejection rate - Obstacles for Part II of this measure will be similar in nature to those expected for Part I, but of larger magnitude. This testing method is more involved and time-consming than the method in Part I and will require more effort directed toward technical development, design, instru- ment assembly, and shelter construction. Legal obstacles will consequently be significant, and socio-economic obstacles will probably be greater because of the higher cost and greater inconvenience for the vehicle owner. • Oxidizing Catalytic Converters - There are major technical obstacles involving the implementation of this retrofit measure by 1975. These obstacles are due to several technical weaknesses in current catalytic converter designs. Further development and testing are required but would not be possible if implementation is to occur by the recommended dates. The converters will be relatively easy to install, but they must be replaced periodically (between 25,000 and 50,000 miles) and unleaded fuel must be used. Furthermore, the converter is costly as compared to other retrofit devicesJ and for older vehicles, as compared to the value of the auto. As a result, major socio-economic, political, and legal obstacles are anticipated for this measure. § Pre-1966 Retrofit Device - Since exhaust control devices incorporating vacuum spark advance disconnect are already required for these model years in the South Coast, San Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins, it is not expected that this measure will encounter any significant obstacles to implementation. A rule must be written and passed by the appropriate Air Pollution Control Board in each county, but this should be a minor legal obstacle. VSAD is neither costly or complicated, but it is effective and should meet a minimum of social and political opposition. 109 ------- t Aircraft Emission Controls - This control measure should have only minor political and socio-economic obstacles. Technical and institutional obstacles may be more severe. The emission controls for new and in-use aircraft engines will have major technical obstacles. The ground operation procedure modification elements of the measure may encounter moderate institutional obstacles with FAA and the affected airport authorities. Response by pilots to the measure is not anticipated to be negative. t Mass Transit - Mass transit improvements should meet no institutional or legal obstacles, but there will be significant technical, political and socio- economic difficulties to be overcome. Technical obstacles will involve the system design and fare structure of the improvements. Socio-economic obstacles will result from the actual design of the system, and the funding mechanism for its insitution. Political opposition will depend on how well the other two major obstacles are met. The funding aspects are expected to be the most controversial portions. 5.2 Phase II Measures 5.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures • Elimination of Motorcycle Use During Smog Season - This measure will encounter few technical obstacles, but political and legal obstacles will be quite significant, considering the popularity of motor- cycles in California (especially during the summer) and the potentially significant political strength of motorcycle manufacturers and enthusiasts. There will be moderate socio-economic obstacles because of the recreational and personal values of motorcycle riding, and enforcement will be an institutional problem. • Inspection/Maintenance for HDV - Inspection/maintenance procedures for heavy duty vehicles have been developed and tested in only a few areas of the country (New York State, for example); the potential exists for major technical obstacles to implementation in California. Minor political, institutional, legal, and socio- economic obstacles are also expected. • Retrofit Devices for HDV - Obstacles to implementation of a retrofit program for heavy duty vehicles are expected to be very similar to those described for inspection/maintenance. 110 ------- 5.2.2 MOBILE SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES t Gasoline Rationing - A large scale VMT reduction through gasoline rationing would be extremely difficult to implement. Since nearly everyone would be affected, opposition can be expected on all fronts. Due to the potential severity of the measure, the political, institutional, and socio- economic obstacles will be so great that they are likely to force a reevaluation of the overall program objectives, and constraints. t Evaporative Retrofit Device - Major technical, political, legal, and socio-economic obstacles are anticipated for implementation of an evaporative retrofit program. Although devices for pre-1970 vehicles have not yet been developed, it is expected that they will be costly compared to the value of the vehicle and that installation will not be simple. • Additional Retrofit Measures - It is expected that additional retrofit measures beyond those specifically recommended in this study will encounter major technical, political, institutional, legal, and socio- economic obstacles during implementation. Most of these additional devices are not cost-effective for application in these air basins and will meet significant opposition. Ill ------- APPENDIX A PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY A-1 ------- The study was conducted using Consumer Mail Panels, Market Facts' controlled mail panel facility. Questionnaires were sent to panel members living in these metropolitan areas: San Francisco Bakersfield Sacramento Fresno Stockton Panel members were requested to fill out the questionnaires imme- diately and return them to Market Facts as soon as possible. Certain questions required the panel members (female household head) to obtain responses from other members of the household. Approximately 965 questionnaires were mailed out, ranging from 522 in San Francisco to 67 in Bakersfield. Approximately 700 usable returns were received, a return rate of 72 percent. The questionnaires were mailed on April 18, 1972 and returns were cut-off on May 10, 1972. A-2 ------- CONSUMER MAIL PANELS 323 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET • CHICAGO, ILLINOIS 60*06 (3-D348) Dear Panel Member, Today, I am sending you a questionnaire which I consider both exciting and interesting. Hopefully, you will too. This questionnaire deals with the impor« tant problem of air pollution caused by automobiles. As you know, autos are a major source of air pollution—especially in metro- politan areas. You probably have read in newspapers or magazines that auto manufacturers are being required to make changes in their cars that will reduce the amount of pollutants coming out of cars. This will be particularly true for cars manufactured in 1975 and thereafter. Many pollution experts believe, however, that despite these new federal regu- lations on auto air pollution, other ways will have to be found to further reduce pollution caused by cars. The purpose of this questionnaire is to obtain your reaction to these new auto pollution control ideas being suggested by the experts. In answering some questions, you will probably have to consult other members of your family to get their ideas and reactions. I am sorry if this is inconvenient, but I am sure you will agree that the importance of solving pollution problems is worth making every reasonable effort. As always, please check each of your answers after you have completed the questionnaire. Then return it to me in the enclosed postage-paid envelope. If you have any additional comments, please write them on the lines pro- vided in Question 12. P.S.: For your help with this questionnaire I will be sending you a token of my appreciation, as soon as the processing of completed questionnaires is completed. A-3 ------- CONSUMER MAIL PANELS in MUTH rauutiM ITWtr CHICAGO. IU.INOII (3-D348) QTKSTIONNAIBJ: 1. I. Jc. 4a. 4k. All auto8 made in 1975 ar:! thereafter will be equipped with emmision control device* to reduce air pollution. If in ! 975 you owned a car built before that year, how would you {eel about a law re-\ quiring vou to put emission control equipment which might co»t $125 on your car? ("X" BE'fcOW) How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by government subsidy to about $50? ("X" BELOW) 1. Cost $12» 2. Cost $50 Toward Law; Very rnui;t; in favor of law . . Somewhat in favor of law ... Somewhat against law ..... Very much against law .... Qi }a. Even cars properly equipped with emmision control equipment might still pollute the air if the equip- ment was not properly maintained. How would you feel about a law requiring periodic Inspection of the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY) Very much in favor of law Somewhat In , favor of law Somewhat. , against law1 Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT) Very much .-.. against law LJ what wculd you consider a 20 Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY) At state-operated inspection centers >Ql At city-ope rated inspection centers. . Q2 At some other place (Specify): Even if all autos were equipped with properly maintained 1 emission control systems, some cities might still have auto 1 u air pollution problems due to the large number of cars I 3 either on the streets at the same time or concentrated in I j? particular areas. Listed below are several possible ways 1 « to reduce pollution under one or both of these conditions, 1 u Please tell me how you feel about each of these proposals, f ^ ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE) 1 •; j Proposal! l^—^^l c. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto but only ,-, d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central business districts Ql e. A tax on all day parking in central business districts . . Ql f. A tax on parking in centra) business districts regardless _. of whether a person parked only one hour or all day — g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways and expressways Q]l h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways and expressways _ .. i. Mandatory car pooling — allowing only cars , carrying at least three persons Ql j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only" and "car pool ,— .. only" lanes on major expressways and streets. ... '-' Which of the proposals listed above would be the mostacceptable ? To Me This Proposal 1st 1 /" tt f ^0 ,jt ] az DZ D2 DZ D2 DZ (Give (Give Ul IS 3 a. D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 D3 Letter 4 Letter j k fu a i »i| D4 D4 D4 D4 D4 D4 D4 . D4 D4 / - 1 I S I /'/ I u f i g 1 DS DS as as as DS DS DS DS 13 D 14.16 Open 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 A-4 ------- Page 2 (3-D348) QUESTIONS 5-6 ASK FOR INFORMATION RELATING TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS. CONSULT THEM, IF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS. 5a. 5b. 5c. 5d. How often do the various member* of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex- ample, by bus, subway, or commuter train.) Children Husband Wife (Over 16 Yeara Old) Three or more time* a week . ... CU • Please rate each household member's reason for using public tri important reason "1", the next most Important "2", the next "3" never uses public transportation, "X" the "never use" box at the Please rate each household member's reasons for traveling by a as in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 5c) 5b. Public Transportation Children (Over 16 Reasons: Husband Wife Years Old) a Cheaper (38) (39)-- (40) b. Faster (44) (45) (46) c. More comfortable (50) (51) (52) d. Safer for passenger .... (56) (57) (58) e Less congested (62) (63) (64) f More available (68) (69) (70) g. More flexible (I can come and go as I please) . . . (15) (16) (17) h. More relaxing (able to read while traveling). . (21) (22) (23) j. I do not have a driver's license . . . (27) (28) (29) k. Car is not available when I need it (30) (31) ('2) 1. Other (Specify): (33) (34) (35) ..QI ...ni . .DZ ...QZ :.D3(36) ...03,3,, . .QS ...as . .D6 ...a* insportation. (Rate the most etc. If a household member bottom of the list.) uto. Follow the same procedure 5c. Auto Transportation Children (Over 16 Husband Wife Yeara Old) ... (41) (42) (43) . . • (47) (48) (49) ... (53) (54) (55) ... (59) (60) <61> (74.78 . . . (65) (66) (67) open) ... (71) (72) (73)79EIDBO ... (18) (19) <2°> Dup. 1-14 ... (24) (25) (26) (36) (37) (38) -- - t - m. Never use ("X" Box) . . . Ql D* Q3 (39) . . . Ql G2 Q3 (40) Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effectiveness which items below you feel would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the most effective item a "1", the next most effective "2", the next "3", etc.) Children Items: Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old) Cleaner and newer vehicles (41) Air-conditioned vehicle* (47) Parking facilities at stops or stations (56) Shelters against bad weather at stops Better security to assure personal More conveniently located stops Other (Specify): (68) (42) (43) (45) (46) (48) (49) (51) (52) (54) (55) (57) (58) (60) (61) (63) (64) (66) (67) (71-78 open) (69) (70) 79nZl80 A-5 ------- (3-D348) p»g, 3 6». How would you or other household member• feel about traveling to and from work in a car pool? ' ("X" ONE ONLY) (Dup. Very Interested Ql !->4 ) Somewhat Interested. . . . QZ Not at all Interested . . . . Q3 Already in car pool Q4 Do not travel to and from r-|5 work by car 6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets In order to reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates. ("X" ONE ONLY) Extremely difficult Ql Very difficult ;QZ 16 Somewhat difficult Q3 Somewhat easy ( |4 Very easy Qs Extremely easy ,-,, Already In car pool . . . .Q7 7. One of the major causes of areas of high pollution is traffic congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion and stop-and-go traffic wag reduced. Listed below are several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR ; EACH IDEA) Idea: a. Prohibit parking, loading and unloading on busy streets Ql QZ Q3 Q4 17 b. Increase the number of one-way streets Ql QZ Q3 Q4 18 c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets to be used .—i i—,_ •—,, i—.^ .„ during rush hours d. Prohibit turns at busy Intersections during rush hours . Ql QZ Q3 Q4 20 e. Widen major streets Ql QZ Q3 Q4 21 f. Widen major streets at intersections only Ql QZ Q3 Q4 22 g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or overpasses . . . Ql QZ Q3 Q4 2J h. Improve timing of traffic signals Ql Qz Q3 Q4 24 i. Increase the number and frequency of radio traffic re- ports Ql QZ Q3 Q4 Z5 j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only" and "car pool only" lanes on expressways and busy streets .... Ql Q2 Q3 Q4 26 Your ideas (Please List): Ql Qz Q3 Q4 Z7 8. Since traffic congestion is most severe at times when people are going to or coming from work, one alternative for reducing congestion would be to have people start and stop work at different times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM, others would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM, others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about this IdeaT ("X" ONE ONLY) Very much in favor Ql Somewhat in favor Q2 Indifferent Q3 28 Somewhat opposed Q4 Very much opposed . . . , . I 15 Dsal I 1 1 I- 9. Along with the air pollution problem, the country may also be faced with a gasoline shortage. The following methods have been suggested as ways to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso- line. How do you feel about each of these pro- posals ? ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE) a. Gasoline rationing with drivers being allowed to purchase during a year: Ql QZ Q3 Q4 QS 29 about 90 percent of the fuel now used b. about 80 percent of the fuel now used Ql QZ Q3 Q4 Q5 30 c. about 2/3 of the fuel now used pi. p., n n _ -, d. An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on the l~l LJ ^ ^ u number of miles driven during a year: _ -* at $10 per thousand miles LJ1 QZ Q3 Q4 Q5 „ c. at $15 per thousand miles D! QZ Q3 Q4 Qj f. Doubling the price of gasoline and using j— ij ,— . _. _ 34 the additional revenue to imrove I— ' I— I* Q5 the additional revenue to improve mass transit A-6 ------- Page 4 lOa. Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER lOa) lOb. Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year. (WRITE IN NUMBER OF MILES UNDER lOb BELOW) (J-D348) lOc. For each car, please estimate what percentage of last year'a mileage was accounted for by driving outside your local metropolitan area. (For example, vacation, business trips, short weekend trips, otc,) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER lOc) Car *1 Car #2 Car #3 Car #4 lOa Model Year lOb Last Year's Mileage Percentage of Mileage Outside Local Area lOd. How many licensed drivers are there in your household? (WRITE IN) Number of Licensed Drivers: D« 10e. If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the cars you own? , ,. Maybe LJ2 No I0f- m»ny? (WRITE IN) -7 lla. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X" ONE BOX UNDER lla BELOW) lib. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX UNDER lib BELOW) lla lib City Nationwide Very serious problem | 11 [ |I Serious problem Q2 .,„. O2 .... Slightly serious problem D* D3 No problem at all Q4 D4 12. If you have any views or comments regarding any question or idea, please record them belowi (52-78 Open) 7SGEQ80 Thank you for your help. Please check your answers and then return the questionnaire to me in the; enclosed postage-paid envelope. A-7 ------- A.2 Detailed Findings - Auto Air Pollution 1. Seriousness of Auto Air Pollution Over 80 percent of the respondents in each city rated auto air pollu- tion as a "serious" or "very serious" nation-wide problem. Levels ranged from a low of 81 percent in Sacramento to a high of 89 percent in Fresno. In contrast, fewer than half of the respondents in any city felt that auto air pollution in their city was a "serious" or "very serious" problem. Greatest concern was expressed in San Francisco (49%) and least in Stock- ton (20%). Said Auto Air Pollution Nation- wide Is: This Percent of Respondents In These Cities: San Fran- cisco Sacra- mento San Joaquin Bakers- Valley field Fresno Cities Very serious 37 Serious 48 Slightly serious 14 No problem 1 36 51 13 48 36 11 5 42 45 12 1 Said Auto Air Pollution In Their City Is; Very serious Serious Slightly serious No problem 23 26 43 8 19 15 51 15 9 14 37 40 15 26 51 8 10 19 44 27 (Total Number of Respondents) ('384) ('139) (65) (44) (66) (175) A-8 ------- 2. Regulation of Auto Air Pollution Through Emission Control Equipment a. By Law Requiring Equipment on All Autos Respondents were asked how they would feel about a possible law requiring them in 1975 to put emission control equipment on cars manu- factured prior to 1975 at both a non-government subsidized cost of $125 per car or a government subsidized cost of $50 per car. Fewer than 40 percent of the respondents in each city viewed the non-subsidized cost favorably. Favorable reaction was highest in Fresno (39%) and lowest in Stockton and Bakersfield (30%). However, a majority of all respondents were in favor of the law with a government subsidized cost. Regardless of the cost to the owner, respondents in Fresno tended to be more in favor of the law than respondents in other cities. Feel This Way About a Law in 1975 requiring A Car Owner to Put Emission Control on Their Pre-1975 Model Cars: At Cost of $125 Per Car; Very much in favor Somewhat in favor Somewhat against Very much against This Percent of Respondents In These Cities: San Joaquin Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley mento ton field Fresno Cities 16 18 23 43 20 16 20 44 14 16 24 46 15 15 22 48 15 18 20 47 At Cost of $50 Per Car; Very much in favor 41 Somewhat in favor 22 Somewhat against 13 Very much against 24 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) 38 25 12 25 (139) 42 28 15 15 (65) 45 17 7 31 (44) (66) 40 29 12 19 (175) A-9 ------- b. By Law Requiring Inspection of Equipment Respondents were also asked how they would feel about a law requir- ing periodic inspection of emission control systems, what they would consider a reasonable cost for the inspection, and where the inspection should be made. The majority of respondents in all cities were in favor of the law. However, reaction was more favorable in Bakersfield (83%), and Fresno (88%) than in the other three cities (72-74%). Respondents in all cities would expect to pay a mean amount of at least $7. 00 for inspection. Fresno respondents would expect to pay the most ($9. 32). In all cities, a city operated center was the least preferred of the three inspection locations suggested. Preferences for the remaining two locations were fairly equally divided, with the exception of Sacramento, where respondents expressed substantial preference for state operated centers. Feel This Wav About Law Requiring Inspection Of Emission Control Equipment: Very much in favor Somewhat in favor Somewhat againsjt Very much against This Percent of Respondents In These Cities; San Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers- cisco mento ton field 46 52 28 21 12 9 14 18 41 31 14 14 San JoaquirB Valley Fresno Cities 43 45 9 3 43 35 11 11 Would Pay This Mean Amount for Inspection; Would Prefer to Have Car Inspected At; State operated center City operated center Local service station/ garage Other 7.67 41 11 42 6 JL 8.92 55 10 30 5 7.29 45 12 40 3 7.01 JL 40 12 46 2 35 17 40 8 8.01 40 14 41 5 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) A-10 ------- 3. Proposals to Control Auto Air Pollution Respondents were asked to evaluate several proposals aimed at reducing the amount of auto air pollution in their cities. Each proposal was evaluated in terms of the following scale: Very Acceptable (+2) Somewhat Acceptable ( + 1) Neither Acceptable or Unacceptable ( 0) Somewhat Unacceptable (-1) Very Unacceptable (-2) A mean rating for each proposal was calculated using the weights indicated above in the parentheses. A positive mean rating means the proposal is acceptable. A negative rating indicated unacceptability of the •proposal. A rating close to zero indicates indifference to the proposal. Based on the mean ratings, in all five cities, the two most acceptable proposals were to "create bus only and car pool only lanes on major thorough- fares" and to "prohibit traffic and parking in central business districts". The two least acceptable proposals were to "have a very high $200 registra- tion fee per auto owned" and to "have tolls on exit ramps of major thorough- fares". It is worth noting that the highest rating received by any proposal in any city was . 8 and the lowest in any city was -1.9. In short, none of the proposals were rated as high as "somewhat acceptable" in any city, while three of the proposals were rated lower than "somewhat unacceptable" in all cities. A-ll ------- Gave These Mean Respondents In These Cities: Ratings To These Proposals for Reducing Auto Air Pollution; Gasoline rationing $200 registration fee for each auto $200 registration fee for 2nd, 3rd, etc. , auto Prohibit traffic /parking in central business districts San Fran- cisco -.9 -1.7 -.'8 •3 . j Sacra- mento -1.0 -1.8 -1.0 7 . &> Stock- Bakers- ton field -.9 -1.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.0 -1.1 i i San Joaquin Valley Fresno Cities -.8 -.9 -1.9 -1.8 -.8 -1.0 - ? - 1 Tax on all day parking in central business districts -.2 Tax on parking in central business districts regard- less of time parked -. 8 Tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares Tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares in times of heavy traffic Mandatory car pooling Create "bus/car pool only" lanes on major thoroughfares -1.4 -.6 -.3 -.9 -1.4 -.5 -.4 -1. 1 -.2 -.5 -.7 -1.0 -1.2 -.6 -1.2 -1.2 -.4 -.6 -.4 -.9 -1. 5 -1. 5 -1. 4 -1. 3 -1. 1 -1. 3 -1.2 -.5 .8 .6 .5 . 5 .4 .4 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) A-12 ------- Respondents were also asked to record by letter which proposals •would be the most acceptable and least acceptable to them. The following two tables show the proportion of respondents selecting each proposal as most/least acceptable. The tables mirror the mean ratings in pointing out which two proposals are most acceptable. The two most unacceptable proposals are the $200 registration fee for each auto (consistent with the mean ratings), and gasoline rationing. A-13 ------- This Percent of Respondents In These Cities; Said These Proposals Were Most Acceptable;* Gasoline rationing $200 registration fee for each auto $200 registration fee for 2nd, 3rd, etc. , auto Prohibit traffic/parking in central business districts Tax on all day parking in central business districts Tax on parking in central business districts regard- less of time parked Tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares Tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares in times of heavy traffic Mandatory car pooling Create "bus/car pool only" lanes on major thoroughfares San Sacra- Bakers- Francisco mento Stockton field 3s. -2L 2°- !L 1 3 10 12 1 1 5 8655 27 19 13 10 9 9 5 10 rd- 3422 1 - 32 c 1 1 5 10 15 18 12 44 51 39 46 San Joaquin Valley Fresno Cities _%. JL 19 14 2 8 6 16 13 5 6 5 3 5 4 2 16 16 29 37 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) Percentages add to over 100% due to multiple answers. A-14 ------- Said These This Percent of Respondents In These Cities: San Joaquin San Sacra- Bakers- Valley Most Unacceptable:* % % Gasoline rationing $200 registration fee for each auto 29 30 % % 38 33 % % .22 30 50 46 44 51 56 50 $200 registration fee for 2nd, 3rd, etc. , auto 7 Prohibit traffic/parking in central business districts 2 Tax on all day parking in central business districts 4 Tax on parking in central business districts regard- less of time parked 5 Tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares 12 Tolls on exit ramps of major thoroughfares in times of heavy traffic 8 Mandatory car pooling 11 Create "bus/car pool only" lanes on major thoroughfares 1 All 2 (Total Number of Respondents) 14 7 6 2 3 11 3 11 3 2 (384) (139) (65) * Percentages add to over 100% due to multiple answers. A-15 (44) 5 11 (66) 3 10 1 1 (175) ------- a. Proposals to Combat Gasoline Shortage Respondents were also asked to rate various proposals for dealing with the possible gasoline shortage facing the country. The scale used was the same as on the previous table dealing with proposals to end auto pollution, and the mean ratings were calculated in the same manner. The most acceptable proposal was to limit fuel purchases to 90 per- cent of current consumption. The levels of the ratings for this proposal indicate indifference to it rather than a positive reaction. The two least acceptable proposals, both of which received about the same ratings in each city, were to double the price of gasoline, and to impose an emission tax of $10 per thousand miles traveled per year. A-16 ------- Gave This Mean Rating to These Proposals for Con- serving Gasoline: Limit Gasoline Pur- chases to: Respondents In These Cities; San Sacra- Francisco mento 90% of current usage 80% of current usage -. 5 2/3 of current usage -.8 Stockton -.2 -1.0 San Joaquin Bakers- Valley field Fresno Cities -.8 Emission Tax @ $10/1000 mi. @ $15/1000 mi. Double Price of Gasoline -.8 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) -!' Less than . 05. A-17 ------- b. Travelling to And From Work in a Car Pool Respondents in all five cities were also asked how they would feel about travelling to and from work in a. car pool and, if car pools became necessary, how difficult or easy would it be for them to join or organize one. With the exception of Bakersfield, interest in car pools ranged narrowly from 41% (San Francisco and Fresno) to 48% (Stockton). The low level of interest in Bakersfield (31%) may be due in part to small sample size and in part to the fact that more respondents in that city are already in a car pool or do not travel to work by car. Current car pool usage ranges from 3% in Fresno to 15% in Bakers- field. Non-auto travel to and from work is also lowest in Fresno (11%) and highest in Bakersfield (27%). A majority of respondents felt getting into a car pool would be difficult. Said They Would Be This Interested In a Car Pool: This Percent of Respondents in These Cities; San Fran- Sacra- cisco men to Stock- ton San Joaquin Bakers- Valley field Fresno Cities Very interested Somewhat interested Not at all interested Already in car pool Do not travel by car to and from work Said Getting Into A Car Pool Would Be:* Difficult Easy (Total Number of Respondents) 16 25 35 9 22 22 31 4 12 36 32 5 15 16 27 15 8 33 45 3 11 29 36 7 15 80 20 21 81 19 15 72 28 (384) (139) (65) *Percentaged over respondents not presently in a car pool. A-18 27 68 32 (44) 11 83 17 (66) 17 75 25 (175) ------- 4. Proposals to Reduce Traffic Congestion One of the main causes of auto air pollution is traffic congestion and/ or stop and go driving. Respondents were asked to consider several pro- posals aimed at reducing traffic congestion. Of the ten proposals considered, respondents in all cities except Stockton and Bakersfield felt that improving the timing of traffic signals would be the most effective method of reducing traffic congestion. Respondents in Stockton felt that prohibition of parking, loading, and unloading on busy streets and provision for pedestrian over passes, would be somewhat more effective. Respondents in Bakersfield felt that prohibiting turns at busy intersections during rush hours would be most effective. Widening major streets at intersections was judged least effective in reducing traffic congestion in San Francisco, Sacramento, and Bakersfield. In Fresno, establishment of reversible lanes was least effective, and in Stockton, widening major streets at intersections and establishing reversible lanes shared the "least effective" role. In each city most proposals were rated very or somewhat effective by seventy percent of the respondents. These generally high ratings mean that all of the proposals are felt by the majority of respondents to have some amount of effectiveness in reducing traffic congestion. A-19 ------- This Percent of Respondents In These Cities; Said These Proposals Would Be "Very" or "Somewhat" Effective In Reducing.Traffic Congestion; San Sacra- Francisco mento Stockton Bakers- field Prohibit parking, loading, unloading on busy streets 89 Increase number of one-way streets 72 Establish reversible lanes for rush hours 65 Prohibit turns at busy intersections for rush hours Widen major streets Widen major streets at intersections Provide pedestrian over passes/under- passes 86 Improve timing of traffic signals Increase number and frequency of traffic reports 70 Create "bus/car pool only" lanes 81 78 76 49 84 75 81 87 91 70 66 78 76 60 83 86 76 77 San Joaquin Valley Fresno Cities 94 62 56 89 76 74 90 75 53 89 78 71 73 88 79 90 71 66. 86 80 80 89 92 74 72 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) A-20 ------- One additional proposal for reducing traffic congestion was presented to respondents. This proposal was to have working hours staggered throughout the day for the purpose of reducing large traffic flows during specific times of the day - rush hours. The majority of respondents in all cities had favorable attitudes toward this proposal. Favorable attitudes towards this proposal were highest in Sacramento (78%). Of the remaining cities, .attitudes opposed to the propose ranged from 18-20% with the exception of Bakersfield (27%) where the data may reflect the small base. This Percent of Respondents In These Cities: «an Felt This Way San Joaquin San Sacra- Bakers- Valley A , , „. , Francisco mento Stockton field Fresno Cities About Staggered ' ——— ——— ———— ———— Working Hours: % % % % % % In favor of idea 68 78 53 57 68 60 Indifferent to idea 14 8 28 16 12 19 Opposed to idea 18 14 19 27 20 21 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) A-21 ------- A.3 Detailed Findings - Transportation Usage 1. Usage of Public Transportation Respondents (female household heads) in all cities were requested to obtain information from other household members in addition to them- selves, regarding usage and reasons for usage of auto and public (bus, subway, commuter train) transportation. One of the questions answered by all household members (husband, wife, children over 16 years old) pertained to usage of public transportation. The responses were recorded on the following scale and weighted to obtain a mean travel frequency per year: Scale Three or more times a week One or two times a week Once a month Once every three months Never No household member Households in San Francisco use public transportation far more frequently than households in the other cities. An average household in San Francisco uses public transportation 94 times per year. The mean number of trips made per year in the other cities ranges from 10 (Stockton) to 28 (Bakersfield). In all cities except Sacramento, children (over 16 years old) are the most frequent users of public transportation. In San Francisco and Fresno husbands and wives use public transportation about equally often; in Sacramento and Stockton, wives are greater users, while the opposite is true in Bakersfield. Mean Number of Times Per Year In These Cities: Public Transportation Is San San Joaquin Used By These Household Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley Members: cisco mento ton field Fresno Cities Husband 28 3 ** 10 ** 3 Wife 24 6 2 5 ** 2 Children (over 16 years old) 42 6 8 13 20 14 Mean Total Per Year* -—_ Per Household | 94 | 15 10 28 20 19 (Total Number of Respondents) (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) * Wording of question is such that "times" is interpreted to be a round trip not a one-way trip. ** Less than one trip. A-22 ------- 2. Reasons for Usage of Public Transportation Household members indicating usage of public transportation were asked to rank in order of importance several prelisted reasons for using public transportation. Their most important reason was ranked "1", next important "2", etc. Means were calculated on the basis of the numerical rank. The follwoing three tables show the mean ranking given each reason by the various household members (husband, wife, children over 16 years old). Eligible household mem- bers who did not rank a reason were excluded from the mean scores. Husbands and wives in San Francisco use public transportation because it is cheaper and less congested. Children in that city use it because it is cheaper, safer, and more available. With the exception of San Francisco, sample sizes are too small to permit drawing any definitive conclusions. However, the data suggest that wives in the remaining cities use it because they have no drivers' license and no car is available to them. A-23 ------- Gave This Mean Rating bo These Reasons for Using Public Transpor- tation:* Husbands in These Cities: Cheaper Faster- More comfortable Safer for passenger Less congested More available More flexible More relaxing No drivers license Car not available (Total Number of Eligible Husbands) (104) (7) (4) *The higher the number, the less important the reason. San Fran- cisco TT| 4.2 3.9 4.6 2.7 4.7 5.6 3.4 7.9 4.7 San Joaquin Sacra- Stock- Bakers- mento ton field Fresno | 2. 0 | - 7.0 5.0 3.0 - | 5. 5j 1.0 8. 0 - 6. 0" 2. 0 3.0 - 7.5 5.5 2.5 - 6.0 3.5 4.5 - 3.0 4.0 11.0 - 6.0 7.0 \ 1. 0 | - 7.0 3.5 11.0 4. 0 - 6. 0 Valley Cities 6.0 4.0 4.0 6.5 4.8 3. 3 6.3 5.3 11. 0 6.0 (4) (3) (ID Gave This Mean Rating to These Reasons for Using Public Transpor- tation:* Wives in These Cities: Cheaper Faster More comfortable Safer for passenger Less congested More available More flexible More relaxing No drivers license Car not available (Total Number of Eligible Wives) (148) (23) (10) * The higher the number, the less important the reason. San Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers- cisco mento ton field tm 4. 5 4.4 4.6 |3.2 4.0 4.4 3.7 4. 1 3. 3 1 2.6 [ 4. 5 5. 3 6. 0 5.0 9.0 5.0 6.0 2.0 4.8 6.7 3.0 4.6 3.7 2.7 5.7 4.7 9.0 4.0 | 2. 3 | 1.0 1.0 3.5 2.0 1.0 San Joaquin Valley Fresno Cities 5.7 5.0 7.0 6.4 5.3 7.2 5. 3 5. 1 5.0 5.5 3.0 3.4 2. 0 4. 2 3.3 5.9 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 (4) (9) (23) A-24 ------- Gave This Mean Rating Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities: to These Reasons for Using Public Transpor- tation :* Cheaper Faster More comfortable Safer for passenger Less congested More available More flexible More relaxing No drivers license Car not available San San Joaquin Fran- Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley cisco mento ton field Fresno Cities | 3. 1 | | 3. 0 | 3.0 - 4.7 4*2 8.0 4.2 6.5 I 3,5 | 6.5 5.0 6.0 1 3. 5 | 3.3 Q 6.0 6.0 4. 5 8. 0 3.8 1.0 2 3.6 3.5 Q 5. 3 7.0 4.7 7.7 751 rroi rrri 6.3 9.3 .0 - 4.0 .0 - 2.8 4.3 5. 3 7.0 4.7 7.7 nm 6.3 9.3 3.6 2.4 | (Total Number of Eligible Children) (44) (6) (4) (4) (5) (13) "The higher the number, the less important the reason. A-25 ------- 3. Reasons For Using Auto Transportation Household members were also asked to indicate their reasons for traveling by auto in a similiar manner as they indicated their reasons for traveling by public transportation. The following three tables show the mean ranking given each reason by the various household member. Once again, eligible household members who did not rank a reason were excluded from the mean scores. Three reasons clearly emerge as important reasons among family members for using auto transportation. It is faster, more available, and more flexible. A-26 ------- Gave This Mean Rating to These Reasons for Using Auto Transpor- tation:* Husbands in These Cities: Cheaper Faster More comfortable Safer for passenger Less congested More available More flexible Need car during day (Total Number of Eligible Husbands) (314) (115) (52) *The higher the number, the less important the reason. San Fran- cisco 5. 1 | 2. 6 I 4.4 6.4 5.8 2.4 2.4 3. 5 Sacra- mento 5.7 | 3. 0 | 5. 1 6.7 5.9 2. 1 2. 5 3.5 Stock- ton 4.9 3. 5 4.2 6.5 6. 1 1.7 3. 1 3.0 Bakers- field 5.2 | 2. 8 | 4. 3 6.3 6.0 1.9 ,2.7 4.9 San Joaquin Valley Fresno Cities 5.6 | 3. 0 | 4.7 6.7 5.7 2. 5 1.9 3.8 5.3 1 3.1 4.4 6.5 5.9 2. 1 2.5 3. 8 1 (41) (53) (146) Gave This Mean Rating to These Reasons for Using Auto Transpor- tation:* Wives in These Cities: Cheaper Faster More comfortable Safer for passenger Less congested More available More flexible Need car during day (Total Number of Eligible Wives) San Fran- cisco 5. 0 4.4 6.2 5.8 2.4 2. 5 3.8 San Joaquin Sacra- mento 5.6 4.9 6.7 6. 1 2.2 2.4 3.6 Stock- ton 5.2 4. 3 5. 8 5.6 2.3 3. 0 4. 0 Bakers- field 5. 5 4.8 6.4 6. 1 1.8 2.7 4.3 Fresno 5.4 4. 5 6.4 5.9 2.4 2. 1 3.2 Valley Cities 5. 4 CUD 4. 5 6.2 5.9 2.2 2. 5 3.8 (350) (130) (60) (42) (62) (164) *The higher the number, the less important the reason. A-27 ------- Gave This Mean Rating to These Reasons for San Using Auto Transpor- Fran- tation:* Cisco Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities; Sacra- mento San Joaquin Bakers- Valley field Fresno Cities Cheaper Faster More comfortable Safer for passenger 5. 1 2. 3 ^^^^MMI 4.4 6.6 5.4 2.7 ••^M^BI 4.0 6. 8 6.6 3.3 4.8 5.8 2.5 3.0 4.0 6. 5 5.0 2.4 4.4 6.6 Less congested More available More flexible Need car during day 5.7 2.0l 5.4 [JTT 2.9 4. 3 (Total Number of Eligible Children (89) (42) (23) (14) (20) (57) *The higher the number, the less important the reason. A-28 ------- 4. Proposals for Encouraging Use of Public Transportation Household members were asked to rate various proposals designed to encourage increased usage of public transportation facilities. Proposals were rated in the same manner as were the reasons for traveling by auto and public transportation. That is, the most effective proposal was rated "1", the next "2", etc. Means were calculated for each proposal on the basis of meaningful responses. Household members in all five cities feel that more frequent service would be one of the more effective ways of encouraging use of public trans- portation. All respondent groups in San Francisco, and children in Stockton also rate lower fares as an effective proposal. In the other cities, husbands and wives agree that more conven- iently located stops would encourage use of public transportation, as do children in Sacramento. A-29 ------- Gave This Mean Rating Husbands in These Cities: to These Ways of San Encouraging Use of Fran - Public Transportation:* cisco Cleaner /newer vehicles 5.4 Faster travel 4. 0 Air conditioned vehicles 6. 7 More frequent service 1 3. 0 Lower fares ; 3. 6 Parking facilities at stops and stations 4. 5 Shelters against bad weather 5. 9 Better security for personal safety 5. 0 More conveniently located stops /stations 3.7 San Joaquin - Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley mento ton field Fresno Cities 5.9 5.6 3.9 4.1 5.7 6.6 2. 5 j 2.7 ] 4. 8 4. 1 4.7 4.6 5.7 5.7 6.3 5.4 I 3.6 | | 3.9 1 5.8 5. 4.0 4. 5. 1 5. 3. 3 | 2. 4.2 4. 4.6 6. 6. 3 5. 6. 5 6. 3.91 13. 7 5.7 0 4. 0 8 5. 8 6 | 2.9 4 4. 3 4 5.2 2 5.7 3 6.1 TI rrn (Total Number of Eligible Husbands) (357) (128) (60) (43) (57) (160) *The higher the number, the less effective the proposal. Gave This Mean Rating Wives in These Cities: to These Ways of San Encouraging Use of Fran- Public Transportation:* cisco Cleaner /newer vehicles 5. 5 Faster travel 4. 4 Air conditioned vehicles 6. 7 More frequent service 2. 9 Lower fares 3. 4 San Joaquin Sacra- Stock- Bakers- Valley mento ton field Fresno Cities 5.8 5.7 4.4 4.7 5.7 6.4 4.5 4.4 5.8 5. 4. 8 4. 5.2 5. 3.2 | [17 4. 5 4. 9 5.8 3 4.6 2 5. 5 2 4.3 Parking facilities at stops and stations Shelters against bad weather Better security for personal safety More conveniently located stops/stations (Total Number of Eligible Wives) 5.2 5. 5 4.5 3.9 4.8 5. 3 6. 0 WBM^H^M 3. 5 (382) (139) 4.8 5.2 5.5 3.9 MMHHMI (65) 4.9 5.9 6. 1 •^MBMMl 3. 5 MMMMMBM (43) 6.3 5.6 6.0 TT ^•^•^•MM (65) 5.4 5.6 5.9 3.7 | (173) * The higher the number, the less effective the proposal. A-30 ------- Gave This Mean Rating Children Over 16 Years Old in These Cities: to These Ways of Encouraging Use of Public Transportation: Cleaner/newer vehicles Faster travel Air conditioned vehicles More frequent service Lower fares Parking facilities at stops and stations Shelters against bad weather Better security for personal safety More conveniently located stops /stations San Fran- cisco 5. 8 4. 1 6. 5 rrn FTTl 6.4 5. 3 4.8 4. 0 Sacra- mento 6. 1 5. 0 5.9 rm 4.0 6. 5 4.9 5.0 nm Stock- ton 6.3 3. 7 6. 8 rm mn 6. 0 4.7 5. 0 4. 3 San Joaquin Bakers- Valley field Fresno Cities 5.8 4.3 I 4. 2 | | 2.3 3.7 4.9 I 3.2 | | 3.3 4.3 3.4 6.2 6.9 6.7 6.3 5.8 6.5 4.6 5.2 5. 5 3.2 5. 3 JTFI 3.6 6.4 5.7 5.8 4.7 (Total Number of Eligible Children) (198) (74) (42) (22) (33) (97) * The higher the number, the less effective the proposal. A-31 ------- 5. Disposal of Cars Owned Respondents were asked if they would dispose of any of the cars owned if better public transportation were available. Respondents in San Francisco and Sacramento are more likely to dispose of a car or cars than respondents in any of the other cities. Stockton respondents are least likely to dispose of any cars. The mean number of cars owned ranges narrowly from 1.6 - to 1. 9. In all cities the mean number of cars that would be disposed of is about 1. 0. When Asked If They Would Dispose of Any of Their Cars If Better Public Transportation Were Available Said: This Percent of Respondents In These Cities: San Fran- cisco Sacra- mento San Joaquin Bakers- Valley field Fresno Cities Yes Maybe No No car owned Mean Number of Cars Owned Mean Number of Cars Disposed 11 18 68 3 1.6 1. 0 16 3 17 9 66 | 83 | 1 5 1.8 1.6 1.0 1. 0 7 1 16 7 5 2 1.9 1. 0 5 9 76 1 1 - . 8 . 2 1 9 1 78 1 1 2 . 8 . 1 (Total Number of Respondents (384) (139) (65) (44) (66) (175) A-32 ------- |